Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of food pathway results with the MACCS reactor accident consequence model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.; Rollstin, J.A.; Shiver, A.W.; Sprung, J.L.

1995-01-01

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis are used in an investigation with the MACCS model of the food pathways associated with a severe accident at a nuclear power station. The primary purpose of this study is to provide guidance on the variables to be considered in future review work to reduce the uncertainty in the important variables used in the calculation of reactor accident consequences. The effects of 87 imprecisely-known input variables on the following reactor accident consequences are studied: crop growing-season dose, crop long-term dose, milk growing-season dose, total food pathways dose, total ingestion pathways dose, total long-term pathways dose, area dependent cost, crop disposal cost, milk disposal cost, condemnation area, crop disposal area and milk disposal area. When the predicted variables are considered collectively, the following input variables were found to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty: fraction of cesium deposition on grain fields that is retained on plant surfaces and transferred directly to grain, maximum allowable ground concentrations of Cs-137 and Sr-90 for production of crops, ground concentrations of Cs-134, Cs-137 and I-131 at which the disposal of milk will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season, ground concentrations of Cs-134, I-131 and Sr-90 at which the disposal of crops will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season, rate of depletion of Cs-137 and Sr-90 from the root zone, transfer of Sr-90 from soil to legumes, transfer of Cs-137 from soil to pasture, transfer of cesium from animal feed to meat, and the transfer of cesium, iodine and strontium from animal feed to milk

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of chronic exposure results with the MACCS reactor accident consequence model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helton, J.C; Johnson, J.D; Rollstin, J.A; Shiver, A.W; Sprung, J.L

1995-01-01

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis are used in an investigation with the MACCS model of the chronic exposure pathways associated with a severe accident at a nuclear power station. The primary purpose of this study is to provide guidance on the variables to be considered in future review work to reduce the uncertainty in the important variables used in the calculation of reactor accident consequences. The effects of 75 imprecisely known input variables on the following reactor accident consequences are studied: crop growing-season dose, crop long-term dose, water ingestion dose, milk growing-season dose, long-term groundshine dose, long-term inhalation dose, total food pathways dose, total ingestion pathways dose, total long-term pathways dose, total latent cancer fatalities, area-dependent cost, crop disposal cost, milk disposal cost, population-dependent cost, total economic cost, condemnation area, condemnation population, crop disposal area and milk disposal area. When the predicted variables are considered collectively, the following input variables were found to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty: dry deposition velocity, transfer of cesium from animal feed to milk, transfer of cesium from animal feed to meet, ground concentration of Cs-134 at which the disposal of milk products will be initiated, transfer of Sr-90 from soil to legumes, maximum allowable ground concentration of Sr-90 for production of crops, fraction of cesium entering surface water that is consumed in drinking water, groundshine shielding factor, scale factor defining resuspension, dose reduction associated with decontamination, and ground concentration of I-131 at which disposal of crops will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season. Reducing the uncertainty in the preceding variables was found to substantially reduce the uncertainty in the

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of chronic exposure results with the MACCS reactor accident consequence model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.; Rollstin, J.A.; Shiver, A.W.; Sprung, J.L.

1995-01-01

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis are used in an investigation with the MACCS model of the chronic exposure pathways associated with a severe accident at a nuclear power station. The primary purpose of this study is to provide guidance on the variables to be considered in future review work to reduce the uncertainty in the important variables used in the calculation of reactor accident consequences. The effects of 75 imprecisely known input variables on the following reactor accident consequences are studied: crop growing season dose, crop long-term dose, water ingestion dose, milk growing season dose, long-term groundshine dose, long-term inhalation dose, total food pathways dose, total ingestion pathways dose, total long-term pathways dose, total latent cancer fatalities, area-dependent cost, crop disposal cost, milk disposal cost, population-dependent cost, total economic cost, condemnation area, condemnation population, crop disposal area and milk disposal area. When the predicted variables are considered collectively, the following input variables were found to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty: dry deposition velocity, transfer of cesium from animal feed to milk, transfer of cesium from animal feed to meat, ground concentration of Cs-134 at which the disposal of milk products will be initiated, transfer of Sr-90 from soil to legumes, maximum allowable ground concentration of Sr-90 for production of crops, fraction of cesium entering surface water that is consumed in drinking water, groundshine shielding factor, scale factor defining resuspension, dose reduction associated with decontamination, and ground concentration of 1-131 at which disposal of crops will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season

Analysis of uncertainties caused by the atmospheric dispersion model in accident consequence assessments with UFOMOD

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fischer, F.; Ehrhardt, J.

1988-06-01

Various techniques available for uncertainty analysis of large computer models are applied, described and selected as most appropriate for analyzing the uncertainty in the predictions of accident consequence assessments. The investigation refers to the atmospheric dispersion and deposition submodel (straight-line Gaussian plume model) of UFOMOD, whose most important input variables and parameters are linked with probability distributions derived from expert judgement. Uncertainty bands show how much variability exists, sensitivity measures determine what causes this variability in consequences. Results are presented as confidence bounds of complementary cumulative frequency distributions (CCFDs) of activity concentrations, organ doses and health effects, partially as a function of distance from the site. In addition the ranked influence of the uncertain parameters on the different consequence types is shown. For the estimation of confidence bounds it was sufficient to choose a model parameter sample size of n (n=59) equal to 1.5 times the number of uncertain model parameters. Different samples or an increase of sample size did not change the 5%-95% - confidence bands. To get statistically stable results of the sensitivity analysis, larger sample sizes are needed (n=100, 200). Random or Latin-hypercube sampling schemes as tools for uncertainty and sensitivity analyses led to comparable results. (orig.) [de

Uncertainty analysis in calculations of a road accident consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bonnefous, S.; Brenot, J.; Hubert, P.

1995-01-01

This paper develops a concrete situation witch is the search for an evacuation distance in case of a road accident implying a chlorine tank. The methodological aspect is how implementing uncertainty analysis in deterministic models with random parameters. The study demonstrates a great dispersion in the results. It allows to establish satisfactory decision rules and a hierarchy on parameters witch is useful to define priorities in the search for information and to improve the treatment of these parameters. (authors). 8 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs

Uncertainties and severe-accident management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kastenberg, W.E.

1991-01-01

Severe-accident management can be defined as the use of existing and or alternative resources, systems, and actions to prevent or mitigate a core-melt accident. Together with risk management (e.g., changes in plant operation and/or addition of equipment) and emergency planning (off-site actions), accident management provides an extension of the defense-indepth safety philosophy for severe accidents. A significant number of probabilistic safety assessments have been completed, which yield the principal plant vulnerabilities, and can be categorized as (a) dominant sequences with respect to core-melt frequency, (b) dominant sequences with respect to various risk measures, (c) dominant threats that challenge safety functions, and (d) dominant threats with respect to failure of safety systems. Severe-accident management strategies can be generically classified as (a) use of alternative resources, (b) use of alternative equipment, and (c) use of alternative actions. For each sequence/threat and each combination of strategy, there may be several options available to the operator. Each strategy/option involves phenomenological and operational considerations regarding uncertainty. These include (a) uncertainty in key phenomena, (b) uncertainty in operator behavior, (c) uncertainty in system availability and behavior, and (d) uncertainty in information availability (i.e., instrumentation). This paper focuses on phenomenological uncertainties associated with severe-accident management strategies

Cassini Spacecraft Uncertainty Analysis Data and Methodology Review and Update/Volume 1: Updated Parameter Uncertainty Models for the Consequence Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

WHEELER, TIMOTHY A.; WYSS, GREGORY D.; HARPER, FREDERICK T.

2000-11-01

Uncertainty distributions for specific parameters of the Cassini General Purpose Heat Source Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (GPHS-RTG) Final Safety Analysis Report consequence risk analysis were revised and updated. The revisions and updates were done for all consequence parameters for which relevant information exists from the joint project on Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of European Communities.

Processing Expert Judgements in Accident Consequence Modelling (invited paper)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M.

2000-01-01

In performing uncertainty analysis a distribution on the code input parameters is required. The construction of the distribution on the code input parameters for the joint CEC/USNRC Accident Consequence Code Uncertainty Analysis using Expert Judgement is discussed. An example from the food chain module is used to illustrate the construction. Different mathematical techniques have been developed to transform the expert judgements into the required format. Finally, the effect of taking account of correlations in performing uncertainty analysis is investigated. (author)

Ex-plant consequence assessment for NUREG-1150: models, typical results, uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sprung, J.L.

1988-01-01

The assessment of ex-plant consequences for NUREG-1150 source terms was performed using the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS). This paper briefly discusses the following elements of MACCS consequence calculations: input data, phenomena modeled, computational framework, typical results, controlling phenomena, and uncertainties. Wherever possible, NUREG-1150 results will be used to illustrate the discussion. 28 references

Health consequences [of the Chernobyl accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ramoutar, S.

1996-01-01

The World Health Organisation Conference on the Health Consequences of the Chernobyl and Other Radiological Accidents, held in Geneva last November, is reported. The lack of representation from the civil nuclear industry led often to one-sided debates instigated by the anti-nuclear lobbies present. Thyroid cancer in children as a result of the Chernobyl accident received particular attention. In Belarus, 400 cases have been noted, 220 in Ukraine and 60 in the Russian Federation. All have been treated with a high degree of success. The incidence of this cancer would be expected to follow the fallout path as the main exposure route was ingestion of contaminated foods and milk products. It was noted that the only way to confirm causality was if those children born since the accident failed to show the same increased incidence. Explanations were offered for the particular susceptibility of children to thyroid cancer following exposure to radiation. Another significant cause of concern was the health consequences to clean-up workers in radiological accidents. The main factor is psychological problems from the stress of knowing that they have received high radiation doses. A dramatic increase in psychological disorders has occurred in the Ukraine over the past ten years and this is attributed to stress generated by the Chernobyl accident, compounded by the inadequacy of the public advice offered at the time and the socio-economic uncertainties accompanying the breakup of the former USSR. (UK)

Radioecological consequences of potential accident in Norwegian coastal waters. Uncertainties and knowledges gaps in methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iosjpe, M.; Reistad, O.; Brown, J.; Jaworska, A.; Amundsen, I.

2007-01-01

Complete text of publication follows. A potential accident involving the transport of spent nuclear fuel along the Norwegian coastline has been choosen for evaluation of a dose assessment methodology. The accident scenario assumes that the release the radioactivity takes place under water and that there is free exchange of water between the spent fuel and the sea. The inventory has been calculated using the ORIGEN programme. Radioecological consequences are provided by the NRPA compartment model which includes the processes of advection of radioactivity between compartments and water-sediment interactions. The contamination of biota is further calculated from the radionuclide concentrations in filtered seawater in the different water regions. Doses to man are calculated on the basis of radionuclide concentrations in marine organisms, water and sediment and dose conversion factors. Collective dose-rates to man, doses to the critical groups, concentration of radionuclides in biota/sea-foods and doses to marine organisms were calculated through the evaluation of radioecological consequences after accidents. Results of calculations indicate that concentrations of radionuclides for some marine organisms can exceed guideline levels. At the same time collective dose rates to man as well as doses to a critical group are not higher than guideline levels. Comparison of results from calculations with provisional benchmark values suggests that doses to biota are in most cases unlikely to be of concern. However, to some marine organisms can be much higher than the screening dose of 10 μGyh over long periods. It is apparent that water-sediment distribution coefficients and concentration factors constitute the main sources of uncertainties in the present case. It is important to note that knowledge gaps concerning the influence of relatively low dose to populations of marine organisms over long time periods (many generations) substantially constrain the accessor's ability to

The Chernobyl accident consequences; Consequences de l'accident de Tchernobyl

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2001-04-01

Five teen years later, Tchernobyl remains the symbol of the greater industrial nuclear accident. To take stock on this accident, this paper proposes a chronology of the events and presents the opinion of many international and national organizations. It provides also web sites references concerning the environmental and sanitary consequences of the Tchernobyl accident, the economic actions and propositions for the nuclear safety improvement in the East Europe. (A.L.B.)

Assessment of off-site consequences of nuclear accidents (MARIA)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haywood, S.M.

1985-01-01

A brief report is given of a workshop held in Luxembourg in 1985 on methods for assessing the off-site radiological consequences of nuclear accidents (MARIA). The sessions included topics such as atmospheric dispersion; foodchain transfer; urban contamination; demographic and land use data; dosimetry, health effects, economic and countermeasures models; uncertainty analysis; and application of probabilistic risk assessment results as input to decision aids. (U.K.)

Socioeconomic consequences of nuclear reactor accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tawil, J.J.; Callaway, J.W.; Coles, B.L.; Cronin, F.J.; Currie, J.W.; Imhoff, K.L.; Lewis, P.M.; Nesse, R.J.; Strenge, D.L.

1984-06-01

This report identifies and characterizes the off-site socioeconomic consequences that would likely result from a severe radiological accident at a nuclear power plant. The types of impacts that are addressed include economic impacts, health impacts, social/psychological impacts and institutional impacts. These impacts are identified for each of several phases of a reactor accident - from the warning phase through the post-resettlement phase. The relative importance of the impact during each accident phase and the degree to which the impact can be predicted are indicated. The report also examines the methods that are currently used for assessing nuclear reactor accidents, including development of accident scenarios and the estimating of socioeconomic accident consequences with various models. Finally, a critical evaluation is made regarding the use of impact analyses in estimating the contribution of socioeconomic consequences to nuclear accident reactor accident risk. 116 references, 7 figures, 15 tables

Assessment of uncertainties in severe accident management strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kastenberg, W.E.; Apostolakis, G.; Catton, I.; Dhir, V.K.; Okrent, D.

1990-01-01

Recent progress on the development of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) as a tool for qualifying nuclear reactor safety and on research devoted to severe accident phenomena has made severe accident management an achievable goal. Severe accident management strategies may involve operational changes, modification and/or addition of hardware, and institutional changes. In order to achieve the goal of managing severe accidents, a method for assessment of strategies must be developed which integrates PRA methodology and our current knowledge concerning severe accident phenomena, including uncertainty. The research project presented in this paper is aimed at delineating uncertainties in severe accident progression and their impact on severe accident management strategies

Consequences to health of the Chernobyl accident; Helbredsmaessige konsekvenser af reaktorulykken i Tjernobyl

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sewerin, I. [Royal Dental College, Dept. of Radiology, Copenhagen (Denmark)

2001-07-01

The Chernobyl accident in 1986 has been and still is the subject of great interest. Journalistic reports often contain exaggerations and undocumented statements and much uncertainty about the true consequences of the accident prevails in the population. This article reviews the current literature with the focus on reports from official commissions and documentation in the form of controlled studies. The fatal deterministic consequences comprise about 30 victims. The most important outcome is a marked increase in the incidence of thyroid cancer in children and adolescents in the most heavily contaminated area. Furthermore, pronounced psychosocial problems are dominant in the population of the contaminated area. Other significant and documented health consequences are not seen. (au)

Assessing economic consequences of radiation accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rowe, M.D.; Lee, J.C.; Grimshaw, C.A.; Kalb, P.D.

1987-01-01

A recent review of existing models and methods for assessing potential consequences of accidents in the high-level radioactive waste (HLW) disposal system identifies economic consequence assessment methods as a weak point. Existing methods have mostly been designed to assess economic consequences of reactor accidents, the possible scale of which can be several orders of magnitude greater than anything possible in the HLW disposal system. There is therefore some question about the applicability of these methods, their assumptions, and their level of detail to assessments of smaller accidents. The US Dept. of Energy funded this study to determine needs for code modifications or model development for assessing economic costs of accidents in the HLW disposal system. The objectives of the study were as follows: (1) review the literature on economic consequences of accidents to determine the availability of assessment methods and data and their applicability to the HLW disposal system before closure. (2) Determine needs for expansion, revision, or adaptation of methods and data for modeling economic consequences of accidents of the scale projected for the disposal system. (3) Gather data that might be useful for the needed revisions for modeling economic impacts on this scale

The Chernobyl accident consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-04-01

Five teen years later, Tchernobyl remains the symbol of the greater industrial nuclear accident. To take stock on this accident, this paper proposes a chronology of the events and presents the opinion of many international and national organizations. It provides also web sites references concerning the environmental and sanitary consequences of the Tchernobyl accident, the economic actions and propositions for the nuclear safety improvement in the East Europe. (A.L.B.)

Severe Accident Progression and Consequence Assessment Methodology Upgrades in ISAAC for Wolsong CANDU6

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Song, Y.M.; Kim, D.H.; Nijhawan, Sunil

2015-01-01

Amongst the applications of integrated severe accident analysis codes like ISAAC, the principal are to a) help develop an understanding of the severe accident progression and its consequences; b) support the design of mitigation measures by providing for them the state of the reactor following an accident; and c) to provide a training platform for accident management actions. After Fukushima accident there is an increased awareness of the need to implement effective and appropriate mitigation measures and empower the operators with training and understanding about severe accident progression and control opportunities. An updated code with reduced uncertainties can better serve these needs of the utility making decisions about mitigation measures and corrective actions. Optimal deployment of systems such as PARS and filtered containment venting require information on reactor transients for a number of critical parameters. Thus there is a greater consensus now for a demonstrated ability to perform accident progression and consequence assessment analyses with reduced uncertainties. Analyses must now provide source term transients that represent the best in available understanding and so meaningfully support mitigation measures. This requires removal of known simplifications and inclusion of all quantifiable and risk significant phenomena. Advances in understanding of CANDU6 severe accident progression reflected in the severe accident integrated code ROSHNI are being incorporated into ISAAC using CANDU specific component and system models developed and verified for Wolsong CANDU 6 reactors. A significant and comprehensive upgrade of core behavior models is being implemented in ISAAC to properly reflect the large variability amongst fuel channels in feeder geometry, fuel thermal powers and burnup. The paper summarizes the models that have been added and provides some results to illustrate code capabilities. ISAAC is being updated to meet the current requirements and

Severe Accident Progression and Consequence Assessment Methodology Upgrades in ISAAC for Wolsong CANDU6

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Song, Y.M.; Kim, D.H. [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Nijhawan, Sunil [Prolet Inc. 98 Burbank Drive, Toronto (Canada)

2015-05-15

Amongst the applications of integrated severe accident analysis codes like ISAAC, the principal are to a) help develop an understanding of the severe accident progression and its consequences; b) support the design of mitigation measures by providing for them the state of the reactor following an accident; and c) to provide a training platform for accident management actions. After Fukushima accident there is an increased awareness of the need to implement effective and appropriate mitigation measures and empower the operators with training and understanding about severe accident progression and control opportunities. An updated code with reduced uncertainties can better serve these needs of the utility making decisions about mitigation measures and corrective actions. Optimal deployment of systems such as PARS and filtered containment venting require information on reactor transients for a number of critical parameters. Thus there is a greater consensus now for a demonstrated ability to perform accident progression and consequence assessment analyses with reduced uncertainties. Analyses must now provide source term transients that represent the best in available understanding and so meaningfully support mitigation measures. This requires removal of known simplifications and inclusion of all quantifiable and risk significant phenomena. Advances in understanding of CANDU6 severe accident progression reflected in the severe accident integrated code ROSHNI are being incorporated into ISAAC using CANDU specific component and system models developed and verified for Wolsong CANDU 6 reactors. A significant and comprehensive upgrade of core behavior models is being implemented in ISAAC to properly reflect the large variability amongst fuel channels in feeder geometry, fuel thermal powers and burnup. The paper summarizes the models that have been added and provides some results to illustrate code capabilities. ISAAC is being updated to meet the current requirements and

The Chernobyl accidents: Causes and Consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chihab-Eddine, A.

1988-01-01

The objective of this communication is to discuss the causes and the consequences of the Chernobyl accident. To facilitate the understanding of the events that led to the accident, the author gave a simplified introduction to the important physics that goes on in a nuclear reactor and he presented a brief description and features of chernobyl reactor. The accident scenario and consequences have been presented. The common contribution factors that led to both Three Mile Island and Chernobyl accidents have been pointed out.(author)

CEC workshop on methods for assessing the offsite radiological consequences of nuclear accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luykx, F.; Sinnaeve, J.

1986-01-01

On Apr 15-19, 1985, in Luxembourg, the Commission of the European Communities (CEC), in collaboration with the Kernforschungszentrum Karlsruhe (KfK), Federal Republic of Germany, and the National Radiological Protection Board (NRPB), United Kingdom, presented a workshop on methods for assessing the offsite radiological consequences of nuclear accidents. The program consisted of eight sessions. The main conclusions, which were presented in the Round Table Session by the individual Session Chairmen, are summarized. Session topics are as follows: Session I: international developments in the field of accident consequence assessment (ACA); Session II: atmospheric dispersion; Session III: food chain models; Session IV: urban contamination; Session V: demographic and land use data; Session VI: dosimetry, health effects, economic and counter measure models; Session VII: uncertainty analysis; and Session VIII: application of probabilistic consequence models as decision aids

Evaluation of severe accident risks: Methodology for the containment, source term, consequence, and risk integration analyses. Volume 1, Revision 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gorham, E.D.; Breeding, R.J.; Brown, T.D.; Harper, F.T.; Helton, J.C.; Murfin, W.B.; Hora, S.C.

1993-12-01

NUREG-1150 examines the risk to the public from five nuclear power plants. The NUREG-1150 plant studies are Level III probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) and, as such, they consist of four analysis components: accident frequency analysis, accident progression analysis, source term analysis, and consequence analysis. This volume summarizes the methods utilized in performing the last three components and the assembly of these analyses into an overall risk assessment. The NUREG-1150 analysis approach is based on the following ideas: (1) general and relatively fast-running models for the individual analysis components, (2) well-defined interfaces between the individual analysis components, (3) use of Monte Carlo techniques together with an efficient sampling procedure to propagate uncertainties, (4) use of expert panels to develop distributions for important phenomenological issues, and (5) automation of the overall analysis. Many features of the new analysis procedures were adopted to facilitate a comprehensive treatment of uncertainty in the complete risk analysis. Uncertainties in the accident frequency, accident progression and source term analyses were included in the overall uncertainty assessment. The uncertainties in the consequence analysis were not included in this assessment. A large effort was devoted to the development of procedures for obtaining expert opinion and the execution of these procedures to quantify parameters and phenomena for which there is large uncertainty and divergent opinions in the reactor safety community

Demonstration uncertainty/sensitivity analysis using the health and economic consequence model CRAC2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alpert, D.J.; Iman, R.L.; Johnson, J.D.; Helton, J.C.

1985-01-01

This paper summarizes a demonstration uncertainty/sensitivity analysis performed on the reactor accident consequence model CRAC2. The study was performed with uncertainty/sensitivity analysis techniques compiled as part of the MELCOR program. The principal objectives of the study were: 1) to demonstrate the use of the uncertainty/sensitivity analysis techniques on a health and economic consequence model, 2) to test the computer models which implement the techniques, 3) to identify possible difficulties in performing such an analysis, and 4) to explore alternative means of analyzing, displaying, and describing the results. Demonstration of the applicability of the techniques was the motivation for performing this study; thus, the results should not be taken as a definitive uncertainty analysis of health and economic consequences. Nevertheless, significant insights on health and economic consequence analysis can be drawn from the results of this type of study. Latin hypercube sampling (LHS), a modified Monte Carlo technique, was used in this study. LHS generates a multivariate input structure in which all the variables of interest are varied simultaneously and desired correlations between variables are preserved. LHS has been shown to produce estimates of output distribution functions that are comparable with results of larger random samples

Joint CEC/OECD(NEA) workshop on recent advances in reactor accident consequence assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olast, M.; Sinnaeve, J.

1988-01-01

The workshop on probabilistic accident consequence assessment techniques and their applications aims at a review of the present knowledge of all the work in this field. This includes the atmospheric dispersion and deposition modelling, with comparison of the different approaches, the exposure pathways with emphasis on post-deposition processes, the health effects with emphasis on the consequences of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki data re-evaluation, the countermeasures and their economic consequences, the uncertainty analysis of the models and finally the applications of these models as aids to decision making

Aspects of uncertainty analysis in accident consequence modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Travis, C.C.; Hoffman, F.O.

1981-01-01

Mathematical models are frequently used to determine probable dose to man from an accidental release of radionuclides by a nuclear facility. With increased emphasis on the accuracy of these models, the incorporation of uncertainty analysis has become one of the most crucial and sensitive components in evaluating the significance of model predictions. In the present paper, we address three aspects of uncertainty in models used to assess the radiological impact to humans: uncertainties resulting from the natural variability in human biological parameters; the propagation of parameter variability by mathematical models; and comparison of model predictions to observational data

Estimation of cost per severe accident for improvement of accident protection and consequence mitigation strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silva, Kampanart; Ishiwatari, Yuki; Takahara, Shogo

2013-01-01

To assess the complex situations regarding the severe accidents such as what observed in Fukushima Accident, not only radiation protection aspects but also relevant aspects: health, environmental, economic and societal aspects; must be all included into the consequence assessment. In this study, the authors introduce the “cost per severe accident” as an index to analyze the consequences of severe accidents comprehensively. The cost per severe accident consists of various costs and consequences converted into monetary values. For the purpose of improvement of the accident protection and consequence mitigation strategies, the costs needed to introduce the protective actions, and health and psychological consequences are included in the present study. The evaluations of these costs and consequences were made based on the systematic consequence analysis using level 2 and 3 probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) codes. The accident sequences used in this analysis were taken from the results of level 2 seismic PSA of a virtual 1,100 MWe BWR-5. The doses to the public and the number of people affected were calculated using the level 3 PSA code OSCAAR of Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA). The calculations have been made for 248 meteorological sequences, and the outputs are given as expectation values for various meteorological conditions. Using these outputs, the cost per severe accident is calculated based on the open documents on the Fukushima Accident regarding the cost of protective actions and compensations for psychological harms. Finally, optimized accident protection and consequence mitigation strategies are recommended taking into account the various aspects comprehensively using the cost per severe accident. The authors must emphasize that the aim is not to estimate the accident cost itself but to extend the scope of “risk-informed decision making” for continuous safety improvements of nuclear energy. (author)

Assessing economic consequences of radiation accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rowe, M.D.; Lee, J.C.; Grimshaw, C.A.; Kalb, P.D.

1987-01-01

This project reviewed the literature on the economic consequences of accidents to determine the availability of assessment methods and data and their applicability to the high-level radioactive waste (HLW) disposal system before closure; determined needs for expansion, revision, or adaptation of methods and data for modeling economic consequences of accidents of the scale projected for the disposal system; and gathered data that might be useful for the needed revisions. 8 refs., 1 tab

A simplified model for calculating early offsite consequences from nuclear reactor accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Madni, I.K.; Cazzoli, E.G.; Khatib-Rahbar, M.

1988-07-01

A personal computer-based model, SMART, has been developed that uses an integral approach for calculating early offsite consequences from nuclear reactor accidents. The solution procedure uses simplified meteorology and involves direct analytic integration of air concentration equations over time and position. This is different from the discretization approach currently used in the CRAC2 and MACCS codes. The SMART code is fast-running, thereby providing a valuable tool for sensitivity and uncertainty studies. The code was benchmarked against both MACCS version 1.4 and CRAC2. Results of benchmarking and detailed sensitivity/uncertainty analyses using SMART are presented. 34 refs., 21 figs., 24 tabs

Including uncertainty in hazard analysis through fuzzy measures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bott, T.F.; Eisenhawer, S.W.

1997-12-01

This paper presents a method for capturing the uncertainty expressed by an Hazard Analysis (HA) expert team when estimating the frequencies and consequences of accident sequences and provides a sound mathematical framework for propagating this uncertainty to the risk estimates for these accident sequences. The uncertainty is readily expressed as distributions that can visually aid the analyst in determining the extent and source of risk uncertainty in HA accident sequences. The results also can be expressed as single statistics of the distribution in a manner analogous to expressing a probabilistic distribution as a point-value statistic such as a mean or median. The study discussed here used data collected during the elicitation portion of an HA on a high-level waste transfer process to demonstrate the techniques for capturing uncertainty. These data came from observations of the uncertainty that HA team members expressed in assigning frequencies and consequences to accident sequences during an actual HA. This uncertainty was captured and manipulated using ideas from possibility theory. The result of this study is a practical method for displaying and assessing the uncertainty in the HA team estimates of the frequency and consequences for accident sequences. This uncertainty provides potentially valuable information about accident sequences that typically is lost in the HA process

First international workshop on severe accidents and their consequences. [Chernobyl Accident

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1989-07-01

An international workshop on past severe nuclear accidents and their consequences was held in Dagomys region of Sochi, USSR on October 30--November 3, 1989. The plan of this meeting was approved by the USSR Academy of Sciences and by the USSR State Committee of the Utilization of Atomic Energy. The meeting was held under the umbrella of the ANS-SNS agreement of cooperation. Topics covered include analysis of the Chernobyl accident, safety measures for RBMK type reactors and consequences of the Chernobyl accident including analysis of the ecological, genetic and psycho-social factors. Separate reports are processed separately for the data bases. (CBS)

Cosyma a new programme package for accident consequence assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kelly, G.N.

1991-01-01

This report gives details of a new programme package for accident consequence assessment, prepared under the CEC's Maria programme (Methods for assessing the radiological impact of accidents) initiated in 1982 to review and build on the nuclear accident consequence assessment methods in use within the European Community

Incorporation of phenomenological uncertainties in probabilistic safety analysis - application to LMFBR core disruptive accident energetics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Najafi, B; Theofanous, T G; Rumble, E T; Atefi, B

1984-08-01

This report describes a method for quantifying frequency and consequence uncertainty distribution associated with core disruptive accidents (CDAs). The method was developed to estimate the frequency and magnitude of energy impacting the reactor vessel head of the Clinch River Breeder Plant (CRBRP) given the occurrence of hypothetical CDAs. The methodology is illustrated using the CRBR example.

Modeling atmospheric dispersion for reactor accident consequence evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alpert, D.J.; Gudiksen, P.H.; Woodard, K.

1982-01-01

Atmospheric dispersion models are a central part of computer codes for the evaluation of potential reactor accident consequences. A variety of ways of treating to varying degrees the many physical processes that can have an impact on the predicted consequences exists. The currently available models are reviewed and their capabilities and limitations, as applied to reactor accident consequence analyses, are discussed

Cost per severe accident as an index for severe accident consequence assessment and its applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silva, Kampanart; Ishiwatari, Yuki; Takahara, Shogo

2014-01-01

The Fukushima Accident emphasizes the need to integrate the assessments of health effects, economic impacts, social impacts and environmental impacts, in order to perform a comprehensive consequence assessment of severe accidents in nuclear power plants. “Cost per severe accident” is introduced as an index for that purpose. The calculation methodology, including the consequence analysis using level 3 probabilistic risk assessment code OSCAAR and the calculation method of the cost per severe accident, is proposed. This methodology was applied to a virtual 1,100 MWe boiling water reactor. The breakdown of the cost per severe accident was provided. The radiation effect cost, the relocation cost and the decontamination cost were the three largest components. Sensitivity analyses were carried out, and parameters sensitive to cost per severe accident were specified. The cost per severe accident was compared with the amount of source terms, to demonstrate the performance of the cost per severe accident as an index to evaluate severe accident consequences. The ways to use the cost per severe accident for optimization of radiation protection countermeasures and for estimation of the effects of accident management strategies are discussed as its applications. - Highlights: • Cost per severe accident is used for severe accident consequence assessment. • Assessments of health, economic, social and environmental impacts are included. • Radiation effect, relocation and decontamination costs are important cost components. • Cost per severe accident can be used to optimize radiation protection measures. • Effects of accident management can be estimated using the cost per severe accident

The nuclear accidents: Causes and consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rochd, M.

1988-01-01

The author discussed and compared the real causes of T.M.I. and Chernobyl accidents and cited their consequences. To better understand how these accidents occurred, a brief description of PWR type (reactor type of T.M.I.) and of RBMK type (reactor type of Chernobyl) has been presented. The author has also set out briefly the safety analysis objectives and the three barriers established to protect the public against the radiological consequences. To distinguish failures that cause severe accidents and to analyze them in details, it is necessary to classify the accidents. There are many ways to do it according to their initiator event, or to their frequency, or to their degree of gravity. The safety criteria adopted by nuclear industry have been explained. These criteria specify the limits of certain physical parameters that should not be exceeded in case of incidents or accidents. To compare the real causes of T.M.I. and Chernobyl accidents, the events that led to both have been presented. As observed the main common contributing factors in both cases are that the operators did not pay attention to warnings and signals that were available to them and that they were not trained to handle these accident sequences. The essential conclusions derived from these severe accidents are: -The improvement of operators competence contribute to reduce the accident risks; -The rapid and correct diagnosis of real conditions at each point of the accidents permits an appropriate behavior that would bring the plant to a stable state; -Competent technical teams have to intervene and to assist the operators in case of emergency; -Emergency plans and an international collaboration are necessary to limit the accident risks. 11 figs. (author)

Robustness of an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of early exposure results with the MACCS reactor accident consequence model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.; McKay, M.D.; Shiver, A.W.; Sprung, J.L.

1995-01-01

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis were used in an investigation with the MACCS model of the early health effects associated with a severe accident at a nuclear power station. The following results were obtained in tests to check the robustness of the analysis techniques: two independent Latin hypercube samples produced similar uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results; setting important variables to best-estimate values produced substantial reductions in uncertainty, while setting the less important variables to best-estimate values had little effect on uncertainty; similar sensitivity analysis results were obtained when the original uniform and loguniform distributions assigned to the 34 imprecisely known input variables were changed to left-triangular distributions and then to right-triangular distributions; and analyses with rank-transformed and logarithmically-transformed data produced similar results and substantially outperformed analyses with raw (i.e., untransformed) data

Consequence of potential accidents in heavy water plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Croitoru, C.; Lazar, R.E.; Preda, I.A.; Dumitrescu, M.

1998-01-01

Heavy water plants realize the primary isotopic concentrations of water using H 2 O-H 2 S chemical exchange and they are chemical plants. As these plants are handling and spreading large quantities of hydrogen sulphide (high toxic, corrosive, flammable and explosive as) maintained in the process at relative high temperatures and pressures, it is required an assessing of risks associated with the potential accidents. The H 2 S released in atmosphere as a result of an accident will have negative consequences to property, population and environment. This paper presents a model of consequences quantitative assessment and its outcome for the most dangerous accident in heavy water plants. Several states of the art risk based methods were modified and linked together to form a proper model for this analyse. Five basic steps to identify the risks involved in operating the plants are followed: hazard identification, accident sequence development, H 2 S emissions calculus, dispersion analyses and consequences determination. A brief description of each step and some information of analysis results are provided. The accident proportions, the atmospheric conditions and the population density in the respective area were accounted for consequences calculus. The specific results of the consequences analysis allow to develop the plant's operating safety requirements so that the risk remain at an acceptable level. (authors)

Accident consequence assessment code development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Homma, T.; Togawa, O.

1991-01-01

This paper describes the new computer code system, OSCAAR developed for off-site consequence assessment of a potential nuclear accident. OSCAAR consists of several modules which have modeling capabilities in atmospheric transport, foodchain transport, dosimetry, emergency response and radiological health effects. The major modules of the consequence assessment code are described, highlighting the validation and verification of the models. (author)

Parameterization of the driving time in the evacuation or fast relocation model of an accident consequence code

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pfeffer, W.; Hofer, E.; Nowak, E.; Schnadt, H.

1988-01-01

The model of protective measures in the accident consequence code system UFOMOD of the German Risk Study, Phase B, requires the driving times of the population to be evacuated for the evaluation of the dose received during the evacuation. The parameter values are derived from evacuation simulations carried out with the code EVAS for 36 sectors from various sites. The simulations indicated that the driving time strongly depends on the population density, whereas other influences are less important. It was decided to use different driving times in the consequence code for each of four population density classes as well as for each of three or four fractions of the population in a sector. The variability between sectors of a class was estimated from the 36 sectors, in order to derive subjective probability distributions that are to model the uncertainty in the parameter value to be used for any of the fractions in a particular sector for which an EVAS simulation has not yet been performed. To this end also the impact of the uncertainties in the parameters and modelling assumptions of EVAS on the simulated times was quantified using expert judgement. The distributions permit the derivation of a set of driving times to be used as so-called ''best estimate'' or reference values in the accident consequence code. Additionally they are directly applicable in an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

Application of high-order uncertainty for severe accident management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu, Donghan; Ha, Jaejoo

1998-01-01

The use of probability distribution to represent uncertainty about point-valued probabilities has been a controversial subject. Probability theorists have argued that it is inherently meaningless to be uncertain about a probability since this appears to violate the subjectivists' assumption that individual can develop unique and precise probability judgments. However, many others have found the concept of uncertainty about the probability to be both intuitively appealing and potentially useful. Especially, high-order uncertainty, i.e., the uncertainty about the probability, can be potentially relevant to decision-making when expert's judgment is needed under very uncertain data and imprecise knowledge and where the phenomena and events are frequently complicated and ill-defined. This paper presents two approaches for evaluating the uncertainties inherent in accident management strategies: 'a fuzzy probability' and 'an interval-valued subjective probability'. At first, this analysis considers accident management as a decision problem (i.e., 'applying a strategy' vs. 'do nothing') and uses an influence diagram. Then, the analysis applies two approaches above to evaluate imprecise node probabilities in the influence diagram. For the propagation of subjective probabilities, the analysis uses the Monte-Carlo simulation. In case of fuzzy probabilities, the fuzzy logic is applied to propagate them. We believe that these approaches can allow us to understand uncertainties associated with severe accident management strategy since they offer not only information similar to the classical approach using point-estimate values but also additional information regarding the impact from imprecise input data

Real and mythical consequences of Chernobyl accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Osmachkin, V.S.

1999-01-01

This presentation describes the public Unacceptance of Nuclear Power as a consequence of Chernobyl Accident, an accident which was a severest event in the history of the nuclear industry. It was a shock for everybody, who has been involved in nuclear power programs. But nobody could expect that it was also the end romantic page in the nuclear story. The scale of the detriment was a great, and it could be compared with other big technological man-made catastrophes. But immediately after an accident mass media and news agencies started to transmit an information with a great exaggerations of the consequences of the event. In a report on the Seminar T he lessons of the Chernobyl - 1' in 1996 examples of such incorrect information, were cited. Particularly, in the mass media it was declared that consequences of the accident could be compared with a results of the second world war, the number of victims were more than hundred thousand people, more than million of children have the serious health detriments. Such and other cases of the misconstruction have been called as myths. The real consequences of Chernobyl disaster have been summed on the International Conference 'One decade after Chernobyl' - 2, in April 1996. A very important result of the Chernobyl accident was a dissemination of stable unacceptance of the everything connected with 'the atom'. A mystic horror from invisible mortal radiation has been inspired in the masses. And from such public attitude the Nuclear Power Programs in many countries have changed dramatically. A new more pragmatic and more careful atomic era started with a slogan: 'Kernkraftwerk ? Nein, danke'. No doubt, a Chernobyl accident was a serious technical catastrophe in atomic industry. The scale of detriment is connected with a number of involved peoples, not with a number of real victims. In comparison with Bhopal case, earthquakes, crashes of the airplanes, floods, traffic accidents and other risky events of our life - the Chernobyl is

Chernobylsk accident (Causes and Consequences)- Part 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Esteves, D.

1986-09-01

The causes and consequences of the nuclear accident at Chernobylsk-4 reactor are shortly described. The informations were provided by Russian during the specialist meeting, carried out at seat of IAEA. The Russian nuclear panorama; the site, nuclear power plant characteristics and sequence of events; the immediate measurements after accident; monitoring/radioactive releases; environmental contamination and ecological consequences; measurements of emergency; recommendations to increase the nuclear safety; and recommendations of work groups, are presented. (M.C.K.) [pt

Source term and radiological consequences of the Chernobyl accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mourad, R.

1987-09-01

This report presents the results of a study of the source term and radiological consequences of the Chernobyl accident. The results two parts. The first part was performed during the first 2 months following the accident and dealt with the evaluation of the source term and an estimate of individual doses in the European countries outside the Soviet Union. The second part was performed after August 25-29, 1986 when the Soviets presented in a IAEA Conference in Vienna detailed information about the accident, including source term and radiological consequences in the Soviet Union. The second part of the study reconfirms the source term evaluated in the first part and in addition deals with the radiological consequences in the Soviet Union. Source term and individual doses are calculated from measured post-accident data, reported by the Soviet Union and European countries, microcomputer program PEAR (Public Exposure from Accident Releases). 22 refs

A study on the estimation of economic consequence of severe accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hong, Dae Seok; Lee, Kun Jai; Jeong, Jong Tae

1996-01-01

A model to estimate economic consequence of severe accident provides some measure of the impact on the accident and enables to know the different effects of the accident described as same terms of cost and combined as necessary. Techniques to assess the consequences of accidents in terms of cost have many applications, for instance in examining countermeasure options, as part of either emergency planning or decision making after an accident. In this study, a model to estimate the accident economic consequence is developed appropriate to our country focused on PWR accident costs from a societal viewpoint. Societal costs are estimated by accounting for losses that directly affect the plant licensee, the public, the nuclear industry, or the electric utility industry after PWR accident

Prevention of the causes and consequences of a criticality accident - measures adopted in France; Prevention des causes et des consequences d'un accident de criticite - solutions adoptees en France

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fruchard, Y; Lavie, J M

1966-07-01

The question of safety in regard to criticality accident risks has two aspects: prevention of the cause and limitation of the consequences. These two aspects are closely connected. The effort devoted to prevention of the causes depends on the seriousness of the possible human psychologic and economic consequences of the accident. The criticality accidents which have occurred in the nuclear industry, though few in number, do reveal the imperfect nature of the techniques adopted to prevent the causes, and also constitute the only available realistic basis for evaluating the consequences and developing measures to limit them. The authors give a analysis of the known causes and consequences of past criticality accidents and on this basis make a number of comments concerning: the validity of traditional safety criteria, the probability of accidents for different types of operations, characteristic accidents which can serve as models, and the extent of possible radiological consequences. The measures adopted in France to limit the consequences of a possible criticality accident under the headings: location, design and lay-out of the installations, accident detection, and dosimetry for the exposed personnel, are briefly described after a short account of the criteria used in deciding on them. (author) [French] La surete relative aux risques d'accidents de criticite presente deux aspects: la prevention des causes et les parades aux consequences. Ces deux aspects sont tres lies. L'effort consenti a la prevention des causes decoule de l'importance des consequences humaines economiques et psychologiques possibles d'un eventuel accident. Les accidents de criticite survenus dans l'industrie nucleaire, malgre leur rarete, d'une part devoilent les imperfections des techniques de prevention des causes, d'autre part constituent la seule base realiste disponible d'evaluation des consequences et de mise au point des parades a ces consequences. Les auteurs presentent une analyse des

Consequences of potential accidents in heavy water plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Croitoru, C.; Lazar, R.E.; Preda, I.A.; Dumitrescu, M.

2002-01-01

Heavy water plants achieve the primary isotopic concentration by H 2 O-H 2 S chemical exchange. In these plants are stored large quantities of hydrogen sulphide (high toxic, corrosive, flammable and explosive) maintained in process at relative high temperatures and pressures. It is required an assessment of risks associated with the potential accidents. The paper presents adopted model for quantitative consequences assessment in heavy water plants. Following five basic steps are used to identify the risks involved in plants operation: hazard identification, accident sequences development, H 2 S emissions calculus, dispersion analyses and consequences determination. A brief description of each step and some information from risk assessment for our heavy water pilot plant are provided. Accident magnitude, atmospheric conditions and population density in studied area were accounted for consequences calculus. (author)

Biological and medical consequences of nuclear accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Latarjet, R.

1988-01-01

The study of the medical and biological consequences of the nuclear accidents is a vast program. The Chernobyl accident has caused some thirty deceases: Some of them were rapid and the others occurred after a certain time. The particularity of these deaths was that the irradiation has been associated to burns and traumatisms. The lesson learnt from the Chernobyl accident is to treat the burn and the traumatism before treating the irradiation. Contrary to what the research workers believe, the first wave of deaths has passed between 15 and 35 days and it has not been followed by any others. But the therapeutic lesson drawn from the accident confirm the research workers results; for example: the radioactive doses band that determines where the therapy could be efficacious or not. the medical cares dispensed to the irradiated people in the hospital of Moscow has confirmed that the biochemical equilibrium of proteinic elements of blood has to be maintained, and the transfusion of the purified elements are very important to restore a patient to health, and the sterilization of the medium (room, food, bedding,etc...) of the patient is indispensable. Therefore, it is necessary to establish an international cooperation for providing enough sterilized rooms and specialists in the irradiation treatment. The genetic consequences and cancers from the Chernobyl accident have been discussed. It is impossible to detect these consequences because of their negligible percentages. (author)

Character and consequence of nuclear criticality accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Xinhua; Liu Hua; Wu Deqiang; Li Bing

2001-01-01

The author describes some concepts, the process and magnitude of energy release and the destruction of the nuclear criticality accident and also describes the radiation consequence of criticality accidents from three aspects: prompt radiation, contamination in working place and release of fission products to the environment. It shows that the effects of radioactivity release from criticality accidents in the nuclear fuel processing plants on the environment and the public is minor, the main danger is from the external exposure of prompt rays. The paper make as have a correct understanding of the nuclear criticality accident and it would be helpful to take appropriate emergency response to potential criticality accident

The Chernobyl nuclear accident and its consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1986-01-01

An AAEC Task Group was set up shortly after the accident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant to monitor and evaluate initial reports and to assess the implications for Australia. The Task Group issued a preliminary report on 9 May 1986. On 25-29 August 1986, the USSR released details of the accident and its consequences and further information has become available from the Nuclear Energy Agency of OECD and the World Health Organisation. The Task Group now presents a revised report summarising this information and commenting on the consequences from the Australian viewpoint

A systematic framework for effective uncertainty assessment of severe accident calculations; Hybrid qualitative and quantitative methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoseyni, Seyed Mohsen; Pourgol-Mohammad, Mohammad; Tehranifard, Ali Abbaspour; Yousefpour, Faramarz

2014-01-01

This paper describes a systematic framework for characterizing important phenomena and quantifying the degree of contribution of each parameter to the output in severe accident uncertainty assessment. The proposed methodology comprises qualitative as well as quantitative phases. The qualitative part so called Modified PIRT, being a robust process of PIRT for more precise quantification of uncertainties, is a two step process for identifying and ranking based on uncertainty importance in severe accident phenomena. In this process identified severe accident phenomena are ranked according to their effect on the figure of merit and their level of knowledge. Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) serves here as a systematic approach for severe accident phenomena ranking. Formal uncertainty importance technique is used to estimate the degree of credibility of the severe accident model(s) used to represent the important phenomena. The methodology uses subjective justification by evaluating available information and data from experiments, and code predictions for this step. The quantitative part utilizes uncertainty importance measures for the quantification of the effect of each input parameter to the output uncertainty. A response surface fitting approach is proposed for estimating associated uncertainties with less calculation cost. The quantitative results are used to plan in reducing epistemic uncertainty in the output variable(s). The application of the proposed methodology is demonstrated for the ACRR MP-2 severe accident test facility. - Highlights: • A two stage framework for severe accident uncertainty analysis is proposed. • Modified PIRT qualitatively identifies and ranks uncertainty sources more precisely. • Uncertainty importance measure quantitatively calculates effect of each uncertainty source. • Methodology is applied successfully on ACRR MP-2 severe accident test facility

Prevention of the causes and consequences of a criticality accident - measures adopted in France; Prevention des causes et des consequences d'un accident de criticite - solutions adoptees en France

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fruchard, Y.; Lavie, J.M

1966-07-01

The question of safety in regard to criticality accident risks has two aspects: prevention of the cause and limitation of the consequences. These two aspects are closely connected. The effort devoted to prevention of the causes depends on the seriousness of the possible human psychologic and economic consequences of the accident. The criticality accidents which have occurred in the nuclear industry, though few in number, do reveal the imperfect nature of the techniques adopted to prevent the causes, and also constitute the only available realistic basis for evaluating the consequences and developing measures to limit them. The authors give a analysis of the known causes and consequences of past criticality accidents and on this basis make a number of comments concerning: the validity of traditional safety criteria, the probability of accidents for different types of operations, characteristic accidents which can serve as models, and the extent of possible radiological consequences. The measures adopted in France to limit the consequences of a possible criticality accident under the headings: location, design and lay-out of the installations, accident detection, and dosimetry for the exposed personnel, are briefly described after a short account of the criteria used in deciding on them. (author) [French] La surete relative aux risques d'accidents de criticite presente deux aspects: la prevention des causes et les parades aux consequences. Ces deux aspects sont tres lies. L'effort consenti a la prevention des causes decoule de l'importance des consequences humaines economiques et psychologiques possibles d'un eventuel accident. Les accidents de criticite survenus dans l'industrie nucleaire, malgre leur rarete, d'une part devoilent les imperfections des techniques de prevention des causes, d'autre part constituent la seule base realiste disponible d'evaluation des consequences et de mise au point des parades a ces consequences

Prevention of the Causes and Consequences of Criticality Accidents: Measures Adopted in France; Prevention des Causes et des Consequences d'un Accident de Criticite: Solutions Adoptees en France

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fruchard, Y.; Lavie, J. -M. [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique, Paris (France)

1966-05-15

It is important to guard against the risk of criticality accidents by seeking to prevent their occurrence through the elimination of their causes and also by taking steps to provide against their consequences. These two aspects are closely linked since the efforts made to elaborate preventive procedures are dictated by the importance of the repercussions which such accidents are liable to have in the human, economic and psychological spheres. The criticality accidents which have occurred in the nuclear industry, though small in number, do reveal the imperfect nature of the techniques adopted to prevent them, and they constitute the only available realistic basis for evaluating their consequences and developing suitable precautionary techniques. The authors give a detailed analysis of the known causes and consequences of past criticality accidents and on this basis make a number of comments in connection with the validity of traditional safety criteria, the probability of accidents for different types of operation, the characteristic accidents capable of serving as models, and the extent of possible radiological consequences. The measures adopted in France to limit the consequences of a possible criticality accident (location, design and lay-out of installations, accident detection dosimetry for exposed personnel) are briefly described after a short account of the criteria used in deciding on them. Finally, the authors discuss the economic implications of adopting particular precautionary measures and of applying them uniformly, taking due account of the question of reliability. (author) [French] II est important de se proteger contre les risques d'accidents de criticite en tentant, d'une part, de prevenir les accidents eux-memes par l'elimination de leurs causes, d'autre part, de parer a leurs consequences. Ces deux aspects sont tres lies: l'effort portant sur la prevention des accidents decoule de l'importance de leurs consequences sur les plans humain, economique

Evaluation of nuclear accidents consequences. Risk assessment methodologies, current status and applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rodriguez, J.M.

1996-01-01

General description of the structure and process of the probabilistic methods of assessment the external consequences in the event of nuclear accidents is presented. attention is paid in the interface with Probabilistic Safety Analysis level 3 results (source term evaluation) Also are described key issues in accident consequence evaluation as: effects evaluated (early and late health effects and economic effects due to countermeasures), presentation of accident consequences results, computer codes. Briefly are presented some relevant areas for the applications of Accident Consequence Evaluation

Radioecological and dosimetric consequences of the Chernobyl accident in France; Consequences radioecologiques et dosimetriques de l'accident de Tchernobyl en France

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Renaud, Ph; Beaugelin, K; Maubert, H; Ledenvic, Ph [Inst. de Protection et de Surete Nucleaire, CEA Centre d' Etudes de Fontenay-aux-Roses, 92 (France)

1997-11-01

This study has as objective a survey of the radioecological and dosimetric consequences of the Chernobyl accident in France, as well as a prognosis for the years to come. It was requested by the Direction of Nuclear Installation Safety (DSIN) in relation to different organisms which effected measurements after this accident. It is based on the use of combined results of measurements and modelling by means of the code ASTRAL developed at IPSN. Various measurements obtained from five authorities and institutions, were made available, such as: activity of air and water, soil, processed food, agricultural and natural products. However, to achieve the survey still a modelling is needed. ASTRAL is a code for evaluating the ecological consequences of an accident. It allows establishing the correspondence between the soil Remnant Surface Activities (RSA, in Bq.m{sup -2}), the activity concentration of the agricultural production and the individual and collective doses resulting from external and internal exposures (due to inhalation and ingestion of contaminated nurture). The results of principal synthesis documents on the Chernobyl accident and its consequences were also used. The report is structured in nine sections, as follows: 1.Introduction; 2.Objective and methodology; 3.Characterization of radioactive depositions; 4;Remnant surface activities; 5.Contamination of agricultural products and foods; 6.Contamination of natural, semi-natural products and of drinking water; 7.Dosimetric evaluations; 8.Proposals for the environmental surveillance; 9.Conclusion. Finally, after ten years, one concludes that at presentthe dosimetric consequences of the Chernobyl accident in France were rather limited. For the period 1986-2046 the average individual effective dose estimated for the most struck zone is lower than 1500 {mu}Sv, which represents almost 1% of the average natural exposure for the same period. At present, the cesium 137 levels are at often inferior to those recorded

The Chernobyl accident and its consequences.

Science.gov (United States)

Saenko, V; Ivanov, V; Tsyb, A; Bogdanova, T; Tronko, M; Demidchik, Yu; Yamashita, S

2011-05-01

The accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant was the worst industrial accident of the last century that involved radiation. The unprecedented release of multiple different radioisotopes led to radioactive contamination of large areas surrounding the accident site. The exposure of the residents of these areas was varied and therefore the consequences for health and radioecology could not be reliably estimated quickly. Even though some studies have now been ongoing for 25 years and have provided a better understanding of the situation, these are yet neither complete nor comprehensive enough to determine the long-term risk. A true assessment can only be provided after following the observed population for their natural lifespan. Here we review the technical aspects of the accident and provide relevant information on radioactive releases that resulted in exposure of this large population to radiation. A number of different groups of people were exposed to radiation: workers involved in the initial clean-up response, and members of the general population who were either evacuated from the settlements in the Chernobyl nuclear power plant vicinity shortly after the accident, or continued to live in the affected territories of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine. Through domestic efforts and extensive international co-operation, essential information on radiation dose and health status for this population has been collected. This has permitted the identification of high-risk groups and the use of more specialised means of collecting information, diagnosis, treatment and follow-up. Because radiation-associated thyroid cancer is one of the major health consequences of the Chernobyl accident, a particular emphasis is placed on this malignancy. The initial epidemiological studies are reviewed, as are the most significant studies and/or aid programmes in the three affected countries. Copyright © 2011 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights

Radiological consequences of the Chernobyl reactor accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hill, P.; Hille, R.

2003-01-01

The reactor accident at unit 4 of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in Ukraine has deeply affected the living conditions of millions of people. Especially the health consequences have been of public concern up to the present and also been the subject of sometimes absurd claims. The current knowledge on the radiological consequences of the accident is reviewed. Though an increased hazard for some risk groups with high radiation exposure, e.g., liquidators, still cannot be totally excluded for the future, the majority of the population shows no statistically significant indication of radiation-induced illnesses. The contribution of the Research Center Juelich to the assessment of the post-accidental situation and psychological relief of the population is reported. The population groups still requiring special attention include, in particular, children growing up in highly contaminated regions and the liquidators of the years 1986 and 1987 deployed immediately after the accident. (author)

Evaluation of severe accident risks: Quantification of major input parameters: MAACS [MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System] input

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sprung, J.L.; Jow, H-N; Rollstin, J.A.; Helton, J.C.

1990-12-01

Estimation of offsite accident consequences is the customary final step in a probabilistic assessment of the risks of severe nuclear reactor accidents. Recently, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission reassessed the risks of severe accidents at five US power reactors (NUREG-1150). Offsite accident consequences for NUREG-1150 source terms were estimated using the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS). Before these calculations were performed, most MACCS input parameters were reviewed, and for each parameter reviewed, a best-estimate value was recommended. This report presents the results of these reviews. Specifically, recommended values and the basis for their selection are presented for MACCS atmospheric and biospheric transport, emergency response, food pathway, and economic input parameters. Dose conversion factors and health effect parameters are not reviewed in this report. 134 refs., 15 figs., 110 tabs

Methods and codes for assessing the off-site Consequences of nuclear accidents. Volume 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kelly, G.N.; Luykx, F.

1991-01-01

The Commission of the European Communities, within the framework of its 1980-84 radiation protection research programme, initiated a two-year project in 1983 entitled methods for assessing the radiological impact of accidents (Maria). This project was continued in a substantially enlarged form within the 1985-89 research programme. The main objectives of the project were, firstly, to develop a new probabilistic accident consequence code that was modular, incorporated the best features of those codes already in use, could be readily modified to take account of new data and model developments and would be broadly applicable within the EC; secondly, to acquire a better understanding of the limitations of current models and to develop more rigorous approaches where necessary; and, thirdly, to quantify the uncertainties associated with the model predictions. This research led to the development of the accident consequence code Cosyma (COde System from MAria), which will be made generally available later in 1990. The numerous and diverse studies that have been undertaken in support of this development are summarized in this paper, together with indications of where further effort might be most profitably directed. Consideration is also given to related research directed towards the development of real-time decision support systems for use in off-site emergency management

Health consequences of the Chernobyl accident: thyroid diseases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nagataki, Shigenobu; Ashizawa, Kiyoto

1997-01-01

An International Conference entitled 'One decade after Chernobyl: Summing up the consequences of the accident' was held at the Vienna from 8 to 12 April 1996. The aim of conference was to seek a common and conclusive understanding of the nature and magnitude of the consequences of the Chernobyl accident. It was concluded that a highly significant increase in the incidence of thyroid cancer among those persons in the affected areas who were children in 1986 is the only clear evidence to data of a public health impact of radiation exposure as a result of the Chernobyl accident and both temporal and geographical distributions clearly indicate a relationship of the increase in incidence to radiation exposure due to the Chernobyl accident. To clarify the relationship between thyroid cancer and radioactive fallout more clearly, a long term prospective study (case-control/cohort) should be conducted in the highly risk groups and the analysis of accurate estimation of exposure dose to external and/or internal radiation is needed. (author)

Chernobylsk accident (Causes and Consequences)-Part 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Esteves, D.

1986-07-01

Facts, project data, hypothesis, calculations, evaluations, monitoring, standard requirements and several considerations, related to causes, effects and consequences of Chernobylsk-4 accident. (M.C.K.) [pt

A description of nuclear reactor accidents and their consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murray, A.

1989-01-01

Nuclear reactor accidents which have caused core damage, released a significant amount of radioactivity, or caused death or serious injury are described. The reactor accidents discussed in detail include Chernobyl, Three Mile Island, SL-1 and Windscale, although information on other less consequential accidents is also provided. The consequences of these accidents are examined in terms of the amounts of radioactivity released, the radiation doses received, and remedial actions and interventions taken following the accident. 10 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs

The consequences of Chernobyl accident

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ion Chioșilă

2016-12-01

Full Text Available These days marks 30 years since the Chernobyl nuclear accident, followed by massive radioactive contamination of the environment and human in Belarus, Ukraine and Russia, and resulted in many deaths among people who intervened to decrease the effects of the nuclear disaster. The 26 April 1986 nuclear accident contaminated all European countries, but at a much lower level, without highlighted consequences on human health. In special laboratories, the main radionuclides (I-131, Cs-137, Cs-134 and Sr-90 were also analyzed in Romania from environmental samples, food, even human subjects. These radionuclides caused the population to receive a low dose of about 1 mSv in 1986 that is half of the dose of the natural background radiation (2.4 mSv per year. As in all European countries (excluding Ukraine, Belarus and Russia this dose of about 1 mSv fell rapidly by 1990, reaching levels close to ones before the accident at the nuclear tests.

Radioecological and dosimetric consequences of the Chernobyl accident in France; Consequences radioecologiques et dosimetriques de l'accident de Tchernobyl en France

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Renaud, Ph.; Beaugelin, K.; Maubert, H.; Ledenvic, Ph. [Inst. de Protection et de Surete Nucleaire, CEA Centre d' Etudes de Fontenay-aux-Roses, 92 (France)

1997-11-01

This study has as objective a survey of the radioecological and dosimetric consequences of the Chernobyl accident in France, as well as a prognosis for the years to come. It was requested by the Direction of Nuclear Installation Safety (DSIN) in relation to different organisms which effected measurements after this accident. It is based on the use of combined results of measurements and modelling by means of the code ASTRAL developed at IPSN. Various measurements obtained from five authorities and institutions, were made available, such as: activity of air and water, soil, processed food, agricultural and natural products. However, to achieve the survey still a modelling is needed. ASTRAL is a code for evaluating the ecological consequences of an accident. It allows establishing the correspondence between the soil Remnant Surface Activities (RSA, in Bq.m{sup -2}), the activity concentration of the agricultural production and the individual and collective doses resulting from external and internal exposures (due to inhalation and ingestion of contaminated nurture). The results of principal synthesis documents on the Chernobyl accident and its consequences were also used. The report is structured in nine sections, as follows: 1.Introduction; 2.Objective and methodology; 3.Characterization of radioactive depositions; 4;Remnant surface activities; 5.Contamination of agricultural products and foods; 6.Contamination of natural, semi-natural products and of drinking water; 7.Dosimetric evaluations; 8.Proposals for the environmental surveillance; 9.Conclusion. Finally, after ten years, one concludes that at presentthe dosimetric consequences of the Chernobyl accident in France were rather limited. For the period 1986-2046 the average individual effective dose estimated for the most struck zone is lower than 1500 {mu}Sv, which represents almost 1% of the average natural exposure for the same period. At present, the cesium 137 levels are at often inferior to those recorded

Testing of an accident consequence assessment model using field data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Homma, Toshimitsu; Matsubara, Takeshi; Tomita, Kenichi

2007-01-01

This paper presents the results obtained from the application of an accident consequence assessment model, OSCAAR to the Iput dose reconstruction scenario of BIOMASS and also to the Chernobyl 131 I fallout scenario of EMRAS, both organized by International Atomic Energy Agency. The Iput Scenario deals with 137 Cs contamination of the catchment basin and agricultural area in the Bryansk Region of Russia, which was heavily contaminated after the Chernobyl accident. This exercise was used to test the chronic exposure pathway models in OSCAAR with actual measurements and to identify the most important sources of uncertainty with respect to each part of the assessment. The OSCAAR chronic exposure pathway models had some limitations but the refined model, COLINA almost successfully reconstructed the whole 10-year time course of 137 Cs activity concentrations in most requested types of agricultural products and natural foodstuffs. The Plavsk scenario provides a good opportunity to test not only the food chain transfer model of 131 I but also the method of assessing 131 I thyroid burden. OSCAAR showed in general good capabilities for assessing the important 131 I exposure pathways. (author)

Severe accidents and terrorist threats at nuclear reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pollack, G.L.

1987-01-01

Some of the key areas of uncertainty are the nature of the physical and chemical interactions of released fission products and of the interactions between a molten core and concrete, the completeness and validity of the computer codes used to predict accidents, and the behavior of the containment. Because of these and other uncertainties, it is not yet possible to reliably predict the consequences of reactor accidents. It is known that for many accident scenarios, especially less severe ones or where the containment is not seriously compromised, the amount of radioactive material expected to escape the reactor is less, even much less, than was previously calculated. For such accidents, the predictions are easier and more reliable. With severe accidents, however, there is considerable uncertainty as to the predicted results. For accidents of the type that terrorists might cause - for example, where the sequence of failure would be unexpected or where redundant safety features are caused to fail together - the uncertainties are still larger. The conclusion, then, is that there are potential dangers to the public from terrorist actions at a nuclear reactor; however, because of the variety of potential terrorist threats and the incompleteness of the knowledge about the behavior of reactor components and fission products during accidents, the consequences cannot yet be assessed quantitatively

The role of quantitative uncertainty in the safety analysis of flammable gas accidents in Hanford waste tanks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bratzel, D.R.

1998-01-01

Following a 1990 investigation into flammable gas generation, retention, and release mechanisms within the Hanford Site high-level waste tanks, personnel concluded that the existing Authorization Basis documentation did not adequately evaluate flammable gas hazards. The US Department of Energy Headquarters subsequently declared the flammable gas hazard as an unresolved safety issue. Although work scope has been focused on resolution of the issue, it has yet to be resolved due to considerable uncertainty regarding essential technical parameters and associated risk. Resolution of the Flammable Gas Safety Issue will include the identification of a set of controls for the Authorization Basis for the tanks which will require a safety analysis of flammable gas accidents. A traditional nuclear facility safety analysis is based primarily on the analysis of a set of bounding accidents to represent the risks of the possible accidents and hazardous conditions at a facility. While this approach may provide some indication of the bounding consequences of accidents for facilities, it does not provide a satisfactory basis for identification of facility risk or safety controls when there is considerable uncertainty associated with accident phenomena and/or data as is the case with potential flammable gas accidents at the Hanford Site. This is due to the difficulties in identifying the bounding case and reaching consensus among safety analysts, facility operations and engineering, and the regulator on the implications of the safety analysis results. In addition, the bounding cases are frequently based on simplifying assumptions that make the analysis results insensitive to variations among facilities or the impact of alternative safety control strategies. The existing safety analysis of flammable gas accidents for the Tank Waste Remediation system (TWRS) at the Hanford Site has these difficulties. However, Hanford Site personnel are developing a refined safety analysis approach

Guide for licensing evaluations using CRAC2: A computer program for calculating reactor accident consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

White, J.E.; Roussin, R.W.; Gilpin, H.

1988-12-01

A version of the CRAC2 computer code applicable for use in analyses of consequences and risks of reactor accidents in case work for environmental statements has been implemented for use on the Nuclear Regulatory Commission Data General MV/8000 computer system. Input preparation is facilitated through the use of an interactive computer program which operates on an IBM personal computer. The resulting CRAC2 input deck is transmitted to the MV/8000 by using an error-free file transfer mechanism. To facilitate the use of CRAC2 at NRC, relevant background material on input requirements and model descriptions has been extracted from four reports - ''Calculations of Reactor Accident Consequences,'' Version 2, NUREG/CR-2326 (SAND81-1994) and ''CRAC2 Model Descriptions,'' NUREG/CR-2552 (SAND82-0342), ''CRAC Calculations for Accident Sections of Environmental Statements, '' NUREG/CR-2901 (SAND82-1693), and ''Sensitivity and Uncertainty Studies of the CRAC2 Computer Code,'' NUREG/CR-4038 (ORNL-6114). When this background information is combined with instructions on the input processor, this report provides a self-contained guide for preparing CRAC2 input data with a specific orientation toward applications on the MV/8000. 8 refs., 11 figs., 10 tabs

Summary of the CEC/USDOE workshop on uncertainty analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elderkin, C.E.; Kelly, G.N.

1990-06-01

There is uncertainty in all aspects of assessing the consequences of accidental releases of radioactive material, from understanding and describing the environmental and biological transfer processes to modeling emergency response. The need for an exchange of views and a comparison of approaches between the diverse disciplines led to the organization of a CEC/USDOE Workshop on Uncertainty Analysis held in Santa Fe, New Mexico, in November 1989. The workshop brought together specialists in a number of disciplines, including those expert in the mathematics and statistics of uncertainty analysis, in expert judgment elicitation and evaluation, and in all aspects of assessing the radiological and environmental consequences of accidental releases of radioactive material. In addition, there was participation from users of the output of accident consequences assessment in decision making and/or regulatory frameworks. The main conclusions that emerged from the workshop are summarized in this paper. These are discussed in the context of three different types of accident consequence assessment: probabilistic assessments of accident consequences undertaken as inputs to risk analyses of nuclear installations, assessments of accident consequences in real time to provide inputs to decisions on the introduction of countermeasures, and the reconstruction of doses and risks resulting form past releases of radioactive material

Estimates of the financial consequences of nuclear-power-reactor accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Strip, D.R.

1982-09-01

This report develops preliminary techniques for estimating the financial consequences of potential nuclear power reactor accidents. Offsite cost estimates are based on CRAC2 calculations. Costs are assigned to health effects as well as property damage. Onsite costs are estimated for worker health effects, replacement power, and cleanup costs. Several classes of costs are not included, such as indirect costs, socio-economic costs, and health care costs. Present value discounting is explained and then used to calculate the life cycle cost of the risks of potential reactor accidents. Results of the financial consequence estimates for 156 reactor-site combinations are summarized, and detailed estimates are provided in an appendix. The results indicate that, in general, onsite costs dominate the consequences of potential accidents

Severe accident consequence mitigation by filtered containment venting at Canadian nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lebel, Luke S.; Morreale, Andrew C.; Korolevych, Volodymyr; Brown, Morgan J.; Gyepi-Garbrah, Sam

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Use of filtered containment venting during a severe accident assessed. • Severe accident simulations performed using MAAP-CANDU and ADDAM. • Flow capacity, initiation protocols, efficiency, mass and thermal loading evaluated. • Efficient, robust system drastically reduces accident consequences. - Abstract: Having the capability to use filtered containment venting during a severe nuclear accident can significantly reduce its overall consequences. This study employs the MAAP-CANDU severe accident analysis code and the ADDAM atmospheric dispersion code to study the progression of: an unmitigated station blackout accident at a generic pressurized heavy water reactor, the release of radioactive material into the environment, the subsequent dispersion of the fission products through the atmosphere and the subsequent consequences (evacuation radius). The goal is to evaluate the application of filtered venting as an accident mitigation technology. Several aspects of filtered containment venting system design, like flow capacity, initiation protocols, filter efficiency, mass loading, and thermal loading are considered. An efficient and robust filtered containment venting system can reduce the amount of radiological materials emitted during an accident by 25 times or more, and as a result considerably reduce the off-site consequences of an accident.

Development of a Methodology for VHTR Accident Consequence Assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Joeun; Kim, Jintae; Jae, Moosung [Hanyang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2016-05-15

The substitution of the VHTR for burning fossil fuels conserves these hydrocarbon resources for other uses and eliminates the emissions of greenhouse. In Korea, for these reasons, constructing the VHTR plan for hydrogen production is in progress. In this study, the consequence analysis for the off-site releases of radioactive materials during severe accidents has been performed using the level 3 PRA technology. The offsite consequence analysis for a VHTR using the MACCS code has been performed. Since the passive system such as the RCCS(Reactor Cavity Cooling System) are equipped, the frequency of occurrence of accidents has been evaluated to be very low. For further study, the assessment for characteristic of VHTR safety system and precise quantification of its accident scenarios is expected to conduct more certain consequence analysis. This methodology shown in this study might contribute to enhancing the safety of VHTR design by utilizing the results having far lower effect on the environment than the LWRs.

The Fukushima accident and its consequences. Facts, explanations and comments; L'accident de Fukushima et ses consequences. Faits, explications et commentaires

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2012-03-06

This document proposes an overview of the present situation in the different reactors of the Fukushima power station and discusses its control by the operator. It also describes what went on, the causes of the accident, and what occurred on the accident day (earthquake, tsunami, flooding). It discusses whether some mistakes regarding the design and the protection of reactors could explain the accident. It presents the various measures which have been immediately implemented to protect the populations and to confine the accident. It proposes an assessment of damages for the ground and marine environment in terms of contamination. It addresses the consequences of the released radioactivity on population health and on personnel intervening within the site. It discusses the restoration perspectives for contaminated areas and the possible return of evacuated population. Then, it describes the different phases for the station dismantling. It evokes the issue of fallouts beyond Japan and in Europe, outlines some lessons learned from the accident and new safety measures to be implemented in France. It discusses how nuclear risk management is organised in France and its efficiency. It addresses the consequences for the development of nuclear energy in the world

Phenomenological uncertainty analysis of early containment failure at severe accident of nuclear power plant

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Su Won

2011-02-15

The severe accident has inherently significant uncertainty due to wide range of conditions and performing experiments, validation and practical application are extremely difficult because of its high temperature and pressure. Although internal and external researches were put into practice, the reference used in Korean nuclear plants were foreign data of 1980s and safety analysis as the probabilistic safety assessment has not applied the newest methodology. Also, it is applied to containment pressure formed into point value as results of thermal hydraulic analysis to identify the probability of containment failure in level 2 PSA. In this paper, the uncertainty analysis methods for phenomena of severe accident influencing early containment failure were developed, the uncertainty analysis that apply Korean nuclear plants using the MELCOR code was performed and it is a point of view to present the distribution of containment pressure as a result of uncertainty analysis. Because early containment failure is important factor of Large Early Release Frequency(LERF) that is used as representative criteria of decision-making in nuclear power plants, it was selected in this paper among various modes of containment failure. Important phenomena of early containment failure at severe accident based on previous researches were comprehended and methodology of 7th steps to evaluate uncertainty was developed. The MELCOR input for analysis of the severe accident reflected natural circulation flow was developed and the accident scenario for station black out that was representative initial event of early containment failure was determined. By reviewing the internal model and correlation for MELCOR model relevant important phenomena of early containment failure, the uncertainty factors which could affect on the uncertainty were founded and the major factors were finally identified through the sensitivity analysis. In order to determine total number of MELCOR calculations which can

Applicability of simplified methods to evaluate consequences of criticality accident using past accident data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakajima, Ken

2003-01-01

Applicability of four simplified methods to evaluate the consequences of criticality accident was investigated. Fissions in the initial burst and total fissions were evaluated using the simplified methods and those results were compared with the past accident data. The simplified methods give the number of fissions in the initial burst as a function of solution volume; however the accident data did not show such tendency. This would be caused by the lack of accident data for the initial burst with high accuracy. For total fissions, simplified almost reproduced the upper envelope of the accidents. However several accidents, which were beyond the applicable conditions, resulted in the larger total fissions than the evaluations. In particular, the Tokai-mura accident in 1999 gave in the largest total specific fissions, because the activation of cooling system brought the relatively high power for a long time. (author)

The Fukushima accident: radiological consequences and first lessons. Proceedings; L'accident de Fukushima: consequences radiologiques et premiers enseignements. Recueil des presentations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2012-02-15

This document brings together the available presentations given at the conference organised by the French society of radiation protection about the Fukushima accident, its radiological consequences and the first lessons learnt. Sixteen presentations (slides) are compiled in this document and deal with: 1 - Accident progress and first actions (Thierry Charles, IRSN); 2 - Conditions and health monitoring of the Japanese intervention teams (Bernard Le Guen, EDF); 3 - The Intra Group action after the Fukushima accident (Michel Chevallier, Groupe Intra; Frederic Mariotte, CEA); 4 - Processing of effluents (Georges Pagis, Areva); 5 - Fukushima accident: impact on the terrestrial environment in Japan (Didier Champion, IRSN); 6 - Consequences of the Fukushima accident on the marine environment (Dominique Boust, IRSN); 7 - Territories decontamination perspectives (Pierre Chagvardieff, CEA); 8 - Actions undertaken by Japanese authorities (Florence Gallay, ASN); 9 - Japanese population monitoring and health stakes (Philippe Pirard, InVS); 10 - Citizen oversight actions implemented in Japan (David Boilley, ACRO); 11 - Implementation of ICRP's (International Commission on Radiological Protection) recommendations by Japanese authorities: first analysis (Jacques Lochard, CIPR); 12 - Control of Japan imported food stuff (David Brouque, DGAL); 13 - Questions asked by populations in France and in Germany (Florence-Nathalie Sentuc, GRS; Pascale Monti, IRSN); 14 - Labour law applicable to French workers working abroad (Thierry Lahaye, DGT); 15 - Protection of French workers working in Japan, Areva's experience (Patrick Devin, Areva); 16 - Fukushima accident experience feedback and post-accident nuclear doctrine (Jean-Luc Godet, ASN)

Prevention of the causes and consequences of a criticality accident - measures adopted in France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fruchard, Y.; Lavie, J.M.

1966-01-01

The question of safety in regard to criticality accident risks has two aspects: prevention of the cause and limitation of the consequences. These two aspects are closely connected. The effort devoted to prevention of the causes depends on the seriousness of the possible human psychologic and economic consequences of the accident. The criticality accidents which have occurred in the nuclear industry, though few in number, do reveal the imperfect nature of the techniques adopted to prevent the causes, and also constitute the only available realistic basis for evaluating the consequences and developing measures to limit them. The authors give a analysis of the known causes and consequences of past criticality accidents and on this basis make a number of comments concerning: the validity of traditional safety criteria, the probability of accidents for different types of operations, characteristic accidents which can serve as models, and the extent of possible radiological consequences. The measures adopted in France to limit the consequences of a possible criticality accident under the headings: location, design and lay-out of the installations, accident detection, and dosimetry for the exposed personnel, are briefly described after a short account of the criteria used in deciding on them. (author) [fr

The consequences of the Chernobyl nuclear accident in Greece

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1986-07-01

In this report the radioactive fallout on Greece from the Chernobyl nuclear accident is described. The flow pattern to Greece of the radioactive materials released, the measurements performed on environmental samples and samples of the food chain, as well as some estimations of the population doses and of the expected consequences of the accident are presented. The analysis has shown that the radiological impact of the accident in Greece can be considered minor. (J.K.)

Information on economic and social consequences of the Chernobyl accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1990-07-01

This ''Information on economic and social consequences of the Chernobyl accident'' was presented to the July 1990 session of the Economic and Social Council of the United Nations by the delegations of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, the Byelorussian Soviet Socialist Republic and the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic. It presents the radiation situation, the medical aspects of the accident, the evacuation of the inhabitants from areas affected by radioactive contamination and their social welfare, the agro-industrial production and forestry in these areas, the decontamination operations, the scientific back-up for the work dealing with the consequences of the accident and the expenditure and losses resulting from the Chernobyl disaster

Uncertainty analysis of accident notification time and emergency medical service response time in work zone traffic accidents.

Science.gov (United States)

Meng, Qiang; Weng, Jinxian

2013-01-01

Taking into account the uncertainty caused by exogenous factors, the accident notification time (ANT) and emergency medical service (EMS) response time were modeled as 2 random variables following the lognormal distribution. Their mean values and standard deviations were respectively formulated as the functions of environmental variables including crash time, road type, weekend, holiday, light condition, weather, and work zone type. Work zone traffic accident data from the Fatality Analysis Report System between 2002 and 2009 were utilized to determine the distributions of the ANT and the EMS arrival time in the United States. A mixed logistic regression model, taking into account the uncertainty associated with the ANT and the EMS response time, was developed to estimate the risk of death. The results showed that the uncertainty of the ANT was primarily influenced by crash time and road type, whereas the uncertainty of EMS response time is greatly affected by road type, weather, and light conditions. In addition, work zone accidents occurring during a holiday and in poor light conditions were found to be statistically associated with a longer mean ANT and longer EMS response time. The results also show that shortening the ANT was a more effective approach in reducing the risk of death than the EMS response time in work zones. To shorten the ANT and the EMS response time, work zone activities are suggested to be undertaken during non-holidays, during the daytime, and in good weather and light conditions.

A simple assessment scheme for severe accident consequences using release parameters

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Silva, Kampanart, E-mail: kampanarts@tint.or.th [Thailand Institute of Nuclear Technology, 16 Vibhavadi-Rangsit Rd., Latyao, Chatuchak, 10900 (Thailand); Okamoto, Koji [The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo, Tokyo 113-8654 (Japan)

2016-08-15

Highlights: • Nuclear accident consequence index can assess overall consequences of an accident. • Correlations between the index and release parameters are developed. • Relation between the index and release amount follows power function. • The exponent of the power function is the key to the relation. - Abstract: Nuclear accident consequence index (NACI) which can assess the overall consequences of a severe accident on people and the environment is developed based on findings from previous studies. It consists of three indices: radiation effect index, relocation index and decontamination index. Though the NACI can cover large range of consequences, its assessment requires extensive resources. The authors then attempt to simplify the assessment, by investigating the relations between the release parameters and the NACI, in order to use the release parameters for severe accident consequence assessment instead of the NACI. NACI and its components increase significantly when the release amount is increased, while the influences of the release period and the release starting time on the NACI are nearly negligible. Relations between the release amount and the NACI and its components follow simple power functions (y = ax{sup b}). The exponent of the power functions seems to be the key to the relations. The exponent of the relation between the release amount and the NACI was around 0.8–1.0 when the release amount is smaller than 100 TBq, and it increased to around 1.3–1.4 when the release amount is equal to or larger than 100 TBq.

A comparison of the consequences of the design basis accident of the Greek Research Reactor with those of a serious realistic accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kollas, J.G.; Anoussis, J.N.

1985-12-01

An analysis of the radiological consequences of the design basis and the coolant flow blockage accidents of the Greek Research Reactor is presented. The results indicate that the consequences of the coolant flow blockage accident are practically trivial being 1-2 orders of magnitude lower than the corresponding consequences of the design basis accident. (author)

Radioecological and dosimetric consequences of Chernobyl accident in France; Consequences radioecologiques et dosimetriques de l`accident de Tchernobyl en France

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Renaud, Ph; Beaugelin, K; Maubert, H; Ledenvic, Ph

1998-12-31

After ten years and the taking in account of numerous data, it can be affirmed that the dosimetric consequences of Chernobyl accident will have been limited in France. for the period 1986-2046, the individual middle efficient dose commitment, for the area the most reached by depositing is inferior to 1500 {mu}Sv, that represents about 1% of middle natural exposure in the same time. but mountains and forests can have more important surface activities than in plain. Everywhere else, it can be considered that the effects of Chernobyl accident are disappearing. the levels of cesium 137 are now often inferior to what they were before the accident. (N.C.)

Radioecological and dosimetric consequences of Chernobyl accident in France; Consequences radioecologiques et dosimetriques de l`accident de Tchernobyl en France

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Renaud, Ph.; Beaugelin, K.; Maubert, H.; Ledenvic, Ph

1997-12-31

After ten years and the taking in account of numerous data, it can be affirmed that the dosimetric consequences of Chernobyl accident will have been limited in France. for the period 1986-2046, the individual middle efficient dose commitment, for the area the most reached by depositing is inferior to 1500 {mu}Sv, that represents about 1% of middle natural exposure in the same time. but mountains and forests can have more important surface activities than in plain. Everywhere else, it can be considered that the effects of Chernobyl accident are disappearing. the levels of cesium 137 are now often inferior to what they were before the accident. (N.C.)

The Fukushima accident: radiological consequences and first lessons. Proceedings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2012-02-01

This document brings together the available presentations given at the conference organised by the French society of radiation protection about the Fukushima accident, its radiological consequences and the first lessons learnt. Sixteen presentations (slides) are compiled in this document and deal with: 1 - Accident progress and first actions (Thierry Charles, IRSN); 2 - Conditions and health monitoring of the Japanese intervention teams (Bernard Le Guen, EDF); 3 - The Intra Group action after the Fukushima accident (Michel Chevallier, Groupe Intra; Frederic Mariotte, CEA); 4 - Processing of effluents (Georges Pagis, Areva); 5 - Fukushima accident: impact on the terrestrial environment in Japan (Didier Champion, IRSN); 6 - Consequences of the Fukushima accident on the marine environment (Dominique Boust, IRSN); 7 - Territories decontamination perspectives (Pierre Chagvardieff, CEA); 8 - Actions undertaken by Japanese authorities (Florence Gallay, ASN); 9 - Japanese population monitoring and health stakes (Philippe Pirard, InVS); 10 - Citizen oversight actions implemented in Japan (David Boilley, ACRO); 11 - Implementation of ICRP's (International Commission on Radiological Protection) recommendations by Japanese authorities: first analysis (Jacques Lochard, CIPR); 12 - Control of Japan imported food stuff (David Brouque, DGAL); 13 - Questions asked by populations in France and in Germany (Florence-Nathalie Sentuc, GRS; Pascale Monti, IRSN); 14 - Labour law applicable to French workers working abroad (Thierry Lahaye, DGT); 15 - Protection of French workers working in Japan, Areva's experience (Patrick Devin, Areva); 16 - Fukushima accident experience feedback and post-accident nuclear doctrine (Jean-Luc Godet, ASN)

Phenomenological uncertainty analysis of containment building pressure load caused by severe accident sequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, S.Y.; Ahn, K.I.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Phenomenological uncertainty analysis has been applied to level 2 PSA. • The methodology provides an alternative to simple deterministic analyses and sensitivity studies. • A realistic evaluation provides a more complete characterization of risks. • Uncertain parameters of MAAP code for the early containment failure were identified. - Abstract: This paper illustrates an application of a severe accident analysis code, MAAP, to the uncertainty evaluation of early containment failure scenarios employed in the containment event tree (CET) model of a reference plant. An uncertainty analysis of containment pressure behavior during severe accidents has been performed for an optimum assessment of an early containment failure model. The present application is mainly focused on determining an estimate of the containment building pressure load caused by severe accident sequences of a nuclear power plant. Key modeling parameters and phenomenological models employed for the present uncertainty analysis are closely related to the in-vessel hydrogen generation, direct containment heating, and gas combustion. The basic approach of this methodology is to (1) develop severe accident scenarios for which containment pressure loads should be performed based on a level 2 PSA, (2) identify severe accident phenomena relevant to an early containment failure, (3) identify the MAAP input parameters, sensitivity coefficients, and modeling options that describe or influence the early containment failure phenomena, (4) prescribe the likelihood descriptions of the potential range of these parameters, and (5) evaluate the code predictions using a number of random combinations of parameter inputs sampled from the likelihood distributions

Degraded core accidents for the Sizewell PWR A sensitivity analysis of the radiological consequences

CERN Document Server

Kelly, G N; Clarke, R H; Ferguson, L; Haywood, S M; Hemming, C R; Jones, J A

1982-01-01

The radiological impact of degraded core accidents postulated for the Sizewell PWR was assessed in an earlier study. In this report the sensitivity of the predicted consequences to variation in the values of a number of important parameters is investigated for one of the postulated accidental releases. The parameters subjected to sensitivity analyses are the dose-mortality relationship for bone marrow irradiation, the energy content of the release, the warning time before the release to the environment, and the dry deposition velocity for airborne material. These parameters were identified as among the more important in determining the uncertainty in the results obtained in the initial study. With a few exceptions the predicted consequences were found to be not very sensitive to the parameter values investigated, the range of variation in the consequences for the limiting values of each parameter rarely exceeded a factor of a few and in many cases was considerably less. The conclusions reached are, however, p...

Radioecological and dosimetric consequences of the Chernobyl accident in France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Renaud, Ph.; Beaugelin, K.; Maubert, H.; Ledenvic, Ph.

1997-11-01

This study has as objective a survey of the radioecological and dosimetric consequences of the Chernobyl accident in France, as well as a prognosis for the years to come. It was requested by the Direction of Nuclear Installation Safety (DSIN) in relation to different organisms which effected measurements after this accident. It is based on the use of combined results of measurements and modelling by means of the code ASTRAL developed at IPSN. Various measurements obtained from five authorities and institutions, were made available, such as: activity of air and water, soil, processed food, agricultural and natural products. However, to achieve the survey still a modelling is needed. ASTRAL is a code for evaluating the ecological consequences of an accident. It allows establishing the correspondence between the soil Remnant Surface Activities (RSA, in Bq.m -2 ), the activity concentration of the agricultural production and the individual and collective doses resulting from external and internal exposures (due to inhalation and ingestion of contaminated nurture). The results of principal synthesis documents on the Chernobyl accident and its consequences were also used. The report is structured in nine sections, as follows: 1.Introduction; 2.Objective and methodology; 3.Characterization of radioactive depositions; 4;Remnant surface activities; 5.Contamination of agricultural products and foods; 6.Contamination of natural, semi-natural products and of drinking water; 7.Dosimetric evaluations; 8.Proposals for the environmental surveillance; 9.Conclusion. Finally, after ten years, one concludes that at present the dosimetric consequences of the Chernobyl accident in France were rather limited. For the period 1986-2046 the average individual effective dose estimated for the most struck zone is lower than 1500 μSv, which represents almost 1% of the average natural exposure for the same period. At present, the cesium 137 levels are at often inferior to those recorded before

Advanced Approach to Consider Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainties for Integral Accident Simulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peschke, Joerg; Kloos, Martina

2013-01-01

The use of best-estimate codes together with realistic input data generally requires that all potentially important epistemic uncertainties which may affect the code prediction are considered in order to get an adequate quantification of the epistemic uncertainty of the prediction as an expression of the existing imprecise knowledge. To facilitate the performance of the required epistemic uncertainty analyses, methods and corresponding software tools are available like, for instance, the GRS-tool SUSA (Software for Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis). However, for risk-informed decision-making, the restriction on epistemic uncertainties alone is not enough. Transients and accident scenarios are also affected by aleatory uncertainties which are due to the unpredictable nature of phenomena. It is essential that aleatory uncertainties are taken into account as well, not only in a simplified and supposedly conservative way but as realistic as possible. The additional consideration of aleatory uncertainties, for instance, on the behavior of the technical system, the performance of plant operators, or on the behavior of the physical process provides a quantification of probabilistically significant accident sequences. Only if a safety analysis is able to account for both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in a realistic manner, it can provide a well-founded risk-informed answer for decision-making. At GRS, an advanced probabilistic dynamics method was developed to address this problem and to provide a more realistic modeling and assessment of transients and accident scenarios. This method allows for an integral simulation of complex dynamic processes particularly taking into account interactions between the plant dynamics as simulated by a best-estimate code, the dynamics of operator actions and the influence of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. In this paper, the GRS method MCDET (Monte Carlo Dynamic Event Tree) for probabilistic dynamics analysis is explained

Assessment of the potential consequences of a large primary to secondary leakage accident. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

D'Auria, F.S.; Sartmadjiev, A.; Spalj, S.; Macek, J.; Kantee, H.; Elter, J.; Kostka, P.; Bukin, N.; Alexandrov, A.G.; Kristof, M.; Kvizda, B.; Matejovic, P.; Makihara, Y.

2006-01-01

The present paper discusses one of the IAEA's Coordinated Research Projects (CRPs). The CRP was started in 2003 to evaluate complex phenomena of primary to secondary leakage (PRISE) accidents for WWER-440 reactors. The first Research Coordination Meeting (RCM), held in March 2003, identified the possible consequences of PRISE accidents (radioactive release to the atmosphere, pressurized thermal shock, boron dilution, loss of integrity of secondary systems and severe accidents) and designated six task groups to evaluate these, as well as uncertainties associated with PRISE analyses. The second RCM, held in March 2004, discussed the preliminary results of each task group and addressed the main safety concerns related to PRISE phenomena as well as providing recommendations on modelling for PRISE analyses and on operator actions. The third RCM, held in March 2005, discussed the results of the work performed in 2004. The CRP was concluded in 2005. Publication of the final results of the CRP is planned as an IAEA TECDOC. The paper provides a review of the final results of the project. (author)

Consequence analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Woodard, K.

1985-01-01

The objectives of this paper are to: Provide a realistic assessment of consequences; Account for plant and site-specific characteristics; Adjust accident release characteristics to account for results of plant-containment analysis; Produce conditional risk curves for each of five health effects; and Estimate uncertainties

Incidence Probability of Delayed Health Consequences of the Chernobyl Accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abdel-Ghani, A.H.; El-Naggar, A.M.; El-Kadi, A.A.

2000-01-01

During the first international Conference on the long -term consequences of the Chernobyl disaster in 1995 at Kiev, and also during the 1996 International Conference at Vienna, Summing up the consequences of the Chernobyl accident, the data regarding the delayed health consequences were mainly related to thyroid cancer, hereditary disorders, general morbidity, mortality and psychological disturbances. Contrary to expectations, the incidences of Leukemia and Soft Tissue tumors were similar to the spontaneous incident. The expected delayed effects, however, among the accident survivors, the liquidators and populations resident in contaminated areas would show higher incidence probability to Leukemia. These population groups have been continuously exposed to low level radiation both externally and internally. Application of the new ICRP concept of radiation-induced Detriment, and the Nominal Probability Coefficient for Cancer and hereditary effects for both workers and populations are used as the rationale to calculate the incidence probability of occurrence of delayed health effects of the Chernobyl accidents

Consequences in Guatemala of the Chernobyl accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perez Sabino, J.F.; Ayala Jimenez, R.E.

1997-01-01

Because of the long distance between Guatemala and Chernobyl, the country did not undergo direct consequences of radioactive contamination in the short term. However, the accident repercussions were evident in the medium and long-term, mainly in two sectors, the economic-political and the environmental sectors

Cost-effectiveness analysis of countermeasures using accident consequence assessment models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alonso, A.; Gallego, E.

1987-01-01

In the event of a large release of radionuclides from a nuclear power plant, protective actions for the population potentially affected must be implemented. Cost-effectiveness analysis will be useful to define the countermeasures and the criteria needed to implement them. This paper shows the application of Accident Consequence Assessment (ACA) models to cost-effectiveness analysis of emergency and long-term countermeasures, making use of the different relationships between dose, contamination levels, affected areas and population distribution, included in such a model. The procedure is illustrated with the new Melcor Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS 1.3), developed at Sandia National Laboratories (USA), for a fixed accident scenario. Different alternative actions are evaluated with regard to their radiological and economical impact, searching for an 'optimum' strategy. (author)

Consequences in Sweden of the Chernobyl accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Snihs, J.O.

1986-01-01

It summarizes the consequences in Sweden of the Chernobyl accident, describes the emergency response, the basis for decisions and countermeasures, the measurement strategies, the activity levels and doses and countermeasures and action levels used. Past and remaining problems are discussed and the major investigations and improvements are given. (author)

Consequences of severe nuclear accidents in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Seibert, Petra; Arnold, Delia; Mraz, Gabriele; Arnold, Nikolaus; Gufler, Klaus; Kromp-Kolb, Helga; Kromp, Wolfgang; Sutter, Philipp

2013-04-01

A first part of the presentation is devoted to the consequences of the severe accident in the 1986 Chernobyl NPP. It lead to a substantial radioactive contaminated of large parts of Europe and thus raised the awareness for off-site nuclear accident consequences. Spatial patterns of the (transient) contamination of the air and (persistent) contamination of the ground were studied by both measurements and model simulations. For a variety of reasons, ground contamination measurements have variability at a range of spatial scales. Results will be reviewed and discussed. Model simulations, including inverse modelling, have shown that the standard source term as defined in the ATMES study (1990) needs to be updated. Sensitive measurements of airborne activities still reveal the presence of low levels of airborne radiocaesium over the northern hemisphere which stems from resuspension. Over time scales of months and years, the distribution of radionuclides in the Earth system is constantly changing, for example relocated within plants, between plants and soil, in the soil, and into water bodies. Motivated by the permanent risk of transboundary impacts from potential major nuclear accidents, the multidisciplinary project flexRISK (see http://flexRISK.boku.ac.at) has been carried out from 2009 to 2012 in Austria to quantify such risks and hazards. An overview of methods and results of flexRISK is given as a second part of the presentation. For each of the 228 NPPs, severe accidents were identified together with relevant inventories, release fractions, and release frequencies. Then, Europe-wide dispersion and dose calculations were performed for 2788 cases, using the Lagrangian particle model FLEXPART. Maps of single-case results as well as various aggregated risk parameters were produced. It was found that substantial consequences (intervention measures) are possible for distances up to 500-1000 km, and occur more frequently for a distance range up to 100-300 km, which is in

The program system UFOMOD for assessing the consequences of nuclear accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ehrhardt, J.; Burkart, K.; Hasemann, I.; Matzerath, C.; Panitz, H.J.; Steinhauer, C.

1988-10-01

The programm system UFOMOD is a completely new accident consequence assessment (ACA) code. Its structure and modelling is based on the experience gained from applications of the old UFOMOD code during and after the German Risk Study - Phase A, the results of scientific investigations performed within the ongoing Phase B and the CEC-project MARIA, and the requirements resulting from the extended use of ACAs to help in decision-making. One of the most important improvements is the introduction of different trajecotry models for describing atmospheric dispersion in the near range and at larger distances. Emergency actions and countermeasures modelling takes into account recommendations of international commissions. The dosimetric models contain completely new age-, sex- and time-dependent data of dose-conversion factors for external and internal radiation; the ingestion pathway is modelled to consider seasonal dependencies. New dose-risk-relationships for stochastic and non-stochastic health effects are implemented; a special algorithm developed for ACA codes allows individual and collective leukemia and cancer risks to be presented as a function of time after the accident. According to the modular structure of the new program system UFOMOD, an easy access to parameter values and the results of the various submodels exists what facilitates sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. (orig.) [de

Mitigation of Severe Accident Consequences Using Inherent Safety Principles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wigeland, R.A.; Cahalan, J.E.

2009-01-01

Sodium-cooled fast reactors are designed to have a high level of safety. Events of high probability of occurrence are typically handled without consequence through reliable engineering systems and good design practices. For accidents of lower probability, the initiating events are characterized by larger and more numerous challenges to the reactor system, such as failure of one or more major engineered systems and can also include a failure to scram the reactor in response. As the initiating conditions become more severe, they have the potential for creating serious consequences of potential safety significance, including fuel melting, fuel pin disruption and recriticality. If the progression of such accidents is not mitigated by design features of the reactor, energetic events and dispersal of radioactive materials may result. For severe accidents, there are several approaches that can be used to mitigate the consequences of such severe accident initiators, which typically include fuel pin failures and core disruption. One approach is to increase the reliability of the reactor protection system so that the probability of an ATWS event is reduced to less than 1 x 10-6 per reactor year, where larger accident consequences are allowed, meeting the U.S. NRC goal of relegating such accident consequences as core disruption to these extremely low probabilities. The main difficulty with this approach is to convincingly test and guarantee such increased reliability. Another approach is to increase the redundancy of the reactor scram system, which can also reduce the probability of an ATWS event to a frequency of less than 1 x 10-6 per reactor year or lower. The issues with this approach are more related to reactor core design, with the need for a greater number of control rod positions in the reactor core and the associated increase in complexity of the reactor protection system. A third approach is to use the inherent reactivity feedback that occurs in a fast reactor to

Nuclear Accidents: Consequences for Human, Society and Energy Sector

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. A. Bolshov

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The article examines radiation and hygienic regulations with regard to the elimination of consequences of the Chernobyl NPP accident in the context of relationships with other aspects, primarily socio-economic and political factors. This experience is reasonable to take into account when defining criteria in other regulatory fields, for example, in radioactive waste classification and remediation of areas. The article presents an analysis of joint features and peculiarities of nuclear accidents in the industry and energy sectors. It is noted that the scale of global consequences of the Chernobyl NPP accident is defined by the large-scale release of radioactivity into the environment, as well as an affiliation of the nuclear installation with the energy sector. Large-scale radiation accidents affect the most diverse spheres of human activities, what, in its turn, evokes the reverse reaction from the society and its institutions, including involvement of political means of settlement. If the latter is seeing for criteria that are scientifically justified and feasible, then the preconditions for minimizing socio-economic impacts are created. In other cases, political decisions, such as nuclear units’ shutdown and phasing out of nuclear energy, appear to be an economic price which society, as a whole and a single industry sector, pay to compensate the negative public response. The article describes fundamental changes in approaches to ensure nuclear and radiation safety that occurred after the Chernobyl NPP accident. Multiple and negative consequences of the Chernobyl accident for human and society are balanced to some extent by a higher level of operational safety, emergency preparedness, and life-cycle safety. The article indicates that harmonization and ensuring consistency of regulations that involve different aspects of nuclear and radiation safety are important to implement practical solutions to the nuclear legacy problems. The

The Fukushima accident and its consequences. Facts, explanations and comments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2012-01-01

This document proposes an overview of the present situation in the different reactors of the Fukushima power station and discusses its control by the operator. It also describes what went on, the causes of the accident, and what occurred on the accident day (earthquake, tsunami, flooding). It discusses whether some mistakes regarding the design and the protection of reactors could explain the accident. It presents the various measures which have been immediately implemented to protect the populations and to confine the accident. It proposes an assessment of damages for the ground and marine environment in terms of contamination. It addresses the consequences of the released radioactivity on population health and on personnel intervening within the site. It discusses the restoration perspectives for contaminated areas and the possible return of evacuated population. Then, it describes the different phases for the station dismantling. It evokes the issue of fallouts beyond Japan and in Europe, outlines some lessons learned from the accident and new safety measures to be implemented in France. It discusses how nuclear risk management is organised in France and its efficiency. It addresses the consequences for the development of nuclear energy in the world

Dose calculation for atmospheric releases from a nuclear accident using RAMS/HYPACT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tamura, Junji; Tomita, Kenichi; Homma, Toshimitsu

2004-01-01

This paper describes the investigation of uncertainties in the structure of the atmospheric dispersion/deposition model used in the probabilistic accident consequence assessment code, OSCAAR. To investigate these uncertainties, we have introduced the more sophisticated computer codes, RAMS and HYPACT, which were widely used in the research field of atmospheric phenomena. In this work, the capabilities of the HYPACT model were extended for use in accident consequence assessments. The preliminary comparison between the predictions by OSCAAR and those by RAMS/HYPACT were conducted for both individual and collective consequences in terms of probabilistic results. (author)

Level of health of cleaners taking part in the Chernobyl accident consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Margine, L.; Vicol, C.

2009-01-01

During the period of 1986-1988 about 3,000 Moldova citizens took part in Chernobyl NPP accident consequences elimination. In this article the level of morbidity, disability and mortality among Chernobyl accident consequences liquidation participants is analyzed. As a result of analysis of medical documentation and statistical data was revealed that the sickness rate among disaster fighters 2,3 times higher than general sickness rate of the population in Moldova. Disability in this category is at average of 73 per cent as opposed to the overall index for the population of Moldova - 4,4%, this means it is 17 times higher. Mortality among the participants of the accident at Chernobyl NPP is 6 times higher of general data. The participants of the breakdown elimination of Chernobyl accident consequences are equal in their right with the participants and invalids of war and with the disabled workers. Medical and social security of this group is regulated by the legislation of the Republic of Moldova

Uncertainty Analysis of Consequence Management (CM) Data Products.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hunt, Brian D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Cochran, Lainy Dromgoole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Kraus, Terrence D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Fournier, Sean Donovan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Allen, Mark B. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Schetnan, Richard Reed [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Simpson, Matthew D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Okada, Colin E. [Remote Sensing Lab. (RSL), Nellis AFB, Las Vegas, NV (United States); Bingham, Avery A. [Remote Sensing Lab. (RSL), Nellis AFB, Las Vegas, NV (United States)

2018-01-01

The goal of this project is to develop and execute methods for characterizing uncertainty in data products that are deve loped and distributed by the DOE Consequence Management (CM) Program. A global approach to this problem is necessary because multiple sources of error and uncertainty from across the CM skill sets contribute to the ultimate p roduction of CM data products. This report presents the methods used to develop a probabilistic framework to characterize this uncertainty and provides results for an uncertainty analysis for a study scenario analyzed using this framework.

Tank Bump Accident Potential and Consequences During Waste Retrieval

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

BRATZEL, D.R.

2000-01-01

This report provides an evaluation of Hanford tank bump accident potential and consequences during waste retrieval operations. The purpose of this report is to consider the best available new information to support recommendations for safety controls. A new tank bump accident analysis for safe storage (Epstein et al. 2000) is extended for this purpose. A tank bump is a postulated event in which gases, consisting mostly of water vapor, are suddenly emitted from the waste and cause tank headspace pressurization. Tank bump scenarios, physical models, and frequency and consequence methods are fully described in Epstein et al. (2000). The analysis scope is waste retrieval from double-shell tanks (DSTs) including operation of equipment such as mixer pumps and air lift circulators. The analysis considers physical mechanisms for tank bump to formulate criteria for bump potential during retrieval, application of the criteria to the DSTs, evaluation of bump frequency, and consequence analysis of a bump. The result of the consequence analysis is the mass of waste released from tanks; radiological dose is calculated using standard methods (Cowley et al. 2000)

Hanford Waste Tank Bump Accident and Consequence Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

BRATZEL, D.R.

2000-01-01

This report provides a new evaluation of the Hanford tank bump accident analysis and consequences for incorporation into the Authorization Basis. The analysis scope is for the safe storage of waste in its current configuration in single-shell and double-shell tanks

One decade after Chernobyl: Summing up the consequences of the accident. Poster presentations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1997-09-01

The consequences attributed to the disastrous accident that occurred at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant on 26 April 1986 have been subjected to extensive scientific examination; however, they are still viewed with widely differing perspectives. It is fitting then that, ten years after the accident, the European commission (EC), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the World Health Organization (WHO) should jointly sponsor an international conference to review the consequences of the accident and to seek a common and conclusive understanding of their nature and magnitude. The International Conference on One Decade after Chernobyl: Summing up the Consequences of the Accident was held at the Austria Center, Vienna, on 8-12 April 1996. To facilitate the discussions of the Conference, background papers were prepared for the Technical Symposium by teams of scientists from a round the world, who collaborated over a period of months to ascertain, consolidate and present the current state of knowledge in six key areas: clinically observed effects; thyroid effects; long term health effects; other health related effects; consequences for the environment; and the consequences in perspective: prognosis for the future. A background paper on the social, economic, institutional and political impact of the accident was prepared by Belarus, the Russian Federation and Ukraine. The conclusions of the Forum on Nuclear Safety Aspects served as a background paper on this topic. Refs, figs, tabs.

One decade after Chernobyl: Summing up the consequences of the accident. Poster presentations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-09-01

The consequences attributed to the disastrous accident that occurred at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant on 26 April 1986 have been subjected to extensive scientific examination; however, they are still viewed with widely differing perspectives. It is fitting then that, ten years after the accident, the European Commission (EC), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the World Health Organization (WHO) should jointly sponsor an international conference to review the consequences of the accident and to seek a common and conclusive understanding of their nature and magnitude. The International Conference on One Decade after Chernobyl: Summing up the Consequences of the Accident was held at the Austria Center, Vienna, on 8-12 April 1996. To facilitate the discussions of the Conference, background papers were prepared for the Technical Symposium by teams of scientists from around the world, who collaborated over a period of months to ascertain, consolidate and present the current state of knowledge in six key areas: clinically observed effects; thyroid effects; long term health effects; other health related effects; consequences for the environment; and the consequences in perspective: prognosis for the future. A background paper on the social, economic, institutional and political impact of the accident was prepared by Belarus, the Russian Federation and Ukraine. The conclusions of the Forum on Nuclear Safety Aspects served as a background paper on this topic

One decade after Chernobyl: Summing up the consequences of the accident. Poster presentations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-09-01

The consequences attributed to the disastrous accident that occurred at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant on 26 April 1986 have been subjected to extensive scientific examination; however, they are still viewed with widely differing perspectives. It is fitting then that, ten years after the accident, the European commission (EC), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the World Health Organization (WHO) should jointly sponsor an international conference to review the consequences of the accident and to seek a common and conclusive understanding of their nature and magnitude. The International Conference on One Decade after Chernobyl: Summing up the Consequences of the Accident was held at the Austria Center, Vienna, on 8-12 April 1996. To facilitate the discussions of the Conference, background papers were prepared for the Technical Symposium by teams of scientists from a round the world, who collaborated over a period of months to ascertain, consolidate and present the current state of knowledge in six key areas: clinically observed effects; thyroid effects; long term health effects; other health related effects; consequences for the environment; and the consequences in perspective: prognosis for the future. A background paper on the social, economic, institutional and political impact of the accident was prepared by Belarus, the Russian Federation and Ukraine. The conclusions of the Forum on Nuclear Safety Aspects served as a background paper on this topic. Refs, figs, tabs

One decade after Chernobyl: Summing up the consequences of the accident. Poster presentations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1997-09-01

The consequences attributed to the disastrous accident that occurred at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant on 26 April 1986 have been subjected to extensive scientific examination; however, they are still viewed with widely differing perspectives. It is fitting then that, ten years after the accident, the European Commission (EC), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the World Health Organization (WHO) should jointly sponsor an international conference to review the consequences of the accident and to seek a common and conclusive understanding of their nature and magnitude. The International Conference on One Decade after Chernobyl: Summing up the Consequences of the Accident was held at the Austria Center, Vienna, on 8-12 April 1996. To facilitate the discussions of the Conference, background papers were prepared for the Technical Symposium by teams of scientists from around the world, who collaborated over a period of months to ascertain, consolidate and present the current state of knowledge in six key areas: clinically observed effects; thyroid effects; long term health effects; other health related effects; consequences for the environment; and the consequences in perspective: prognosis for the future. A background paper on the social, economic, institutional and political impact of the accident was prepared by Belarus, the Russian Federation and Ukraine. The conclusions of the Forum on Nuclear Safety Aspects served as a background paper on this topic. Ref, figs, tabs.

Radioecological and dosimetric consequences of Chernobyl accident in France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Renaud, Ph.; Beaugelin, K.; Maubert, H.; Ledenvic, Ph.

1997-01-01

After ten years and the taking in account of numerous data, it can be affirmed that the dosimetric consequences of Chernobyl accident will have been limited in France. for the period 1986-2046, the individual middle efficient dose commitment, for the area the most reached by depositing is inferior to 1500 μSv, that represents about 1% of middle natural exposure in the same time. but mountains and forests can have more important surface activities than in plain. Everywhere else, it can be considered that the effects of Chernobyl accident are disappearing. the levels of cesium 137 are now often inferior to what they were before the accident. (N.C.)

Epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in integrated deterministic and probabilistic safety assessment: Tradeoff between accuracy and accident simulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karanki, D.R.; Rahman, S.; Dang, V.N.; Zerkak, O.

2017-01-01

The coupling of plant simulation models and stochastic models representing failure events in Dynamic Event Trees (DET) is a framework used to model the dynamic interactions among physical processes, equipment failures, and operator responses. The integration of physical and stochastic models may additionally enhance the treatment of uncertainties. Probabilistic Safety Assessments as currently implemented propagate the (epistemic) uncertainties in failure probabilities, rates, and frequencies; while the uncertainties in the physical model (parameters) are not propagated. The coupling of deterministic (physical) and probabilistic models in integrated simulations such as DET allows both types of uncertainties to be considered. However, integrated accident simulations with epistemic uncertainties will challenge even today's high performance computing infrastructure, especially for simulations of inherently complex nuclear or chemical plants. Conversely, intentionally limiting computations for practical reasons would compromise accuracy of results. This work investigates how to tradeoff accuracy and computations to quantify risk in light of both uncertainties and accident dynamics. A simple depleting tank problem that can be solved analytically is considered to examine the adequacy of a discrete DET approach. The results show that optimal allocation of computational resources between epistemic and aleatory calculations by means of convergence studies ensures accuracy within a limited budget. - Highlights: • Accident simulations considering uncertainties require intensive computations. • Tradeoff between accuracy and accident simulations is a challenge. • Optimal allocation between epistemic & aleatory computations ensures the tradeoff. • Online convergence gives an early indication of computational requirements. • Uncertainty propagation in DDET is examined on a tank problem solved analytically.

Modeling of criticality accidents and their environmental consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thomas, W.; Gmal, B.

1987-01-01

In the Federal Republic of Germany, potential radiological consequences of accidental nuclear criticality have to be evaluated in the licensing procedure for fuel cycle facilities. A prerequisite to this evaluation is to establish conceivable accident scenarios. First, possibilities for a criticality exceeding the generally applied double contingency principle of safety are identified by screening the equipment and operation of the facility. Identification of undetected accumulations of fissile material or incorrect transfer of fissile solution to unfavorable geometry normally are most important. Second, relevant and credible scenarios causing the most severe consequences are derived from these possibilities. For the identified relevant scenarios, time-dependent fission rates and reasonable numbers for peak power and total fissions must be determined. Experience from real accidents and experiments (KEWB, SPERT, CRAC, SILENE) has been evaluated using empirical formulas. To model the time-dependent behavior of criticality excursions in fissile solutions, a computer program FELIX has been developed

Proceedings of the Seminar on Methods and Codes for Assessing the off-site consequences of nuclear accidents. Volume 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kelly, G.N.; Luykx, F.

1991-01-01

The Commission of the European Communities, within the framework of its 1980-84 radiation protection research programme, initiated a two-year project in 1983 entitled 'methods for assessing the radiological impact of accidents' (Maria). This project was continued in a substantially enlarged form within the 1985-89 research programme. The main objectives of the project were, firstly, to develop a new probabilistic accident consequence code that was modular, incorporated the best features of those codes already in use, could be readily modified to take account of new data and model developments and would be broadly applicable within the EC; secondly, to acquire a better understanding of the limitations of current models and to develop more rigorous approaches where necessary; and, thirdly, to quantify the uncertainties associated with the model predictions. This research led to the development of the accident consequence code Cosyma (COde System from MAria), which will be made generally available later in 1990. The numerous and diverse studies that have been undertaken in support of this development are summarized in this paper, together with indications of where further effort might be most profitably directed. Consideration is also given to related research directed towards the development of real-time decision support systems for use in off-site emergency management

The accident at the Chernobyl' nuclear power plant and its consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1986-08-01

The material is taken from the conclusions of the Government Commission on the causes of the accident at the fourth unit of the Chernobyl' nuclear power plant and was prepared by a team of experts appointed by the USSR State Committee on the Utilization of Atomic Energy. It contains general material describing the accident, its causes, the action taken to contain the accident and to alleviate its consequences, the radioactive contamination and health of the population and some recommendations for improving nuclear power safety. 7 annexes are devoted to the following topics: water-graphite channel reactors and operating experience with RBMK reactors, design of the reactor plant, elimination of the consequences of the accident and decontamination, estimate of the amount, composition and dynamics of the discharge of radioactive substances from the damaged reactor, atmospheric transport and radioactive contamination of the atmosphere and of the ground, expert evaluation and prediction of the radioecological state of the environment in the area of the radiation plume from the Chernobyl' nuclear power station, medical-biological problems. A separate abstract was prepared for each of these annexes. The slides presented at the post-accident review meeting are grouped in two separate volumes

The Fukushima Daiichi Accident. Technical Volume 4/5. Radiological Consequences. Annexes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2015-08-01

The Fukushima Daiichi Accident consists of a Report by the IAEA Director General and five technical volumes. It is the result of an extensive international collaborative effort involving five working groups with about 180 experts from 42 Member States with and without nuclear power programmes and several international bodies. It provides a description of the accident and its causes, evolution and consequences, based on the evaluation of data and information from a large number of sources available at the time of writing. The Fukushima Daiichi Accident will be of use to national authorities, international organizations, nuclear regulatory bodies, nuclear power plant operating organizations, designers of nuclear facilities and other experts in matters relating to nuclear power, as well as the wider public. The set contains six printed parts and five supplementary CD-ROMs. Contents: Report by the Director General; Technical Volume 1/5, Description and Context of the Accident; Technical Volume 2/5, Safety Assessment; Technical Volume 3/5, Emergency Preparedness and Response; Technical Volume 4/5, Radiological Consequences; Technical Volume 5/5, Post-accident Recovery; Annexes. The Report by the Director General is available separately in Arabic, Chinese, English, French, Russian, Spanish and Japanese

Radiological consequences of the Chernobyl reactor accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hill, P.; Hille, R.

2002-01-01

Fifty years of peaceful utilization of nuclear power were interrupted by the reactor accident in unit 4 of the Chernobyl nuclear power station in Ukraine in 1986, a disruptive event whose consequences profoundly affected the way of life of millions of people, and which has moved the public to this day. Releases of radioactive materials contaminated large areas of Belarus, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine. Early damage in the form of radiation syndrome was suffered by a group of rescue workers and members of the reactor operating crew, in some cases with fatal consequences, while the population does not, until now, show a statistically significant increase in the rate of late damage due to ionizing radiation expect for thyroid diseases in children. In particular, no increases in the rates of solid tumors, leukaemia, genetic defects, and congenital defects were detected. For some risk groups exposed to high radiation doses (such as liquidators) the hazard may still be greater, but the large majority of the population need not live in fear of serious impacts on health. Nevertheless, the accident shows major negative social and psychological consequences reinforced by the breakdown of the Soviet Union. This may be one reason for the observed higher incidence of other diseases whose association with the effects of radiation as a cause has not so far been proven. The measurement campaign conducted by the federal government in 1991-1993 addressed these very concerns of the public in an effort to provide unbiased information about exposures detected, on the one hand, in order to alleviate the fears of the public and reduce stress and, on the other hand, to contribute to the scientific evaluation of the radiological situation in the regions most highly exposed. The groups of the population requiring special attention in the future include especially children growing up in highly contaminated regions, and the liquidators of 1986 and 1987 employed in the period immediately

Radiological Consequence Analyses Following a Hypothetical Severe Accident in Japan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Juyub; Kim, Juyoul [FNC Technology Co., Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

2016-10-15

In order to reflect the lessons learned from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident, a simulator which is named NANAS (Northeast Asia Nuclear Accident Simulator) for overseas nuclear accident has been developed. It is composed of three modules: source-term estimation, atmospheric dispersion prediction and dose assessment. For the source-term estimation module, the representative reactor types were selected as CPR1000, BWR5 and BWR6 for China, Japan and Taiwan, respectively. Considering the design characteristics of each reactor type, the source-term estimation module simulates the transient of design basis accident and severe accident. The atmospheric dispersion prediction module analyzes the transport and dispersion of radioactive materials and prints out the air and ground concentration. Using the concentration result, the dose assessment module calculates effective dose and thyroid dose in the Korean Peninsula region. In this study, a hypothetical severe accident in Japan was simulated to demonstrate the function of NANAS. As a result, the radiological consequence to Korea was estimated from the accident. PC-based nuclear accident simulator, NANAS, has been developed. NANAS contains three modules: source-term estimation, atmospheric dispersion prediction and dose assessment. The source-term estimation module simulates a nuclear accident for the representative reactor types in China, Japan and Taiwan. Since the maximum calculation speed is 16 times than real time, it is possible to estimate the source-term release swiftly in case of the emergency. The atmospheric dispersion prediction module analyzes the transport and dispersion of radioactive materials in wide range including the Northeast Asia. Final results of the dose assessment module are a map projection and time chart of effective dose and thyroid dose. A hypothetical accident in Japan was simulated by NANAS. The radioactive materials were released during the first 24 hours and the source

The accident consequence model of the German safety study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huebschmann, W.

1977-01-01

The accident consequence model essentially describes a) the diffusion in the atmosphere and deposition on the soil of radioactive material released from the reactor into the atmosphere; b) the irradiation exposure and health consequences of persons affected. It is used to calculate c) the number of persons suffering from acute or late damage, taking into account possible counteractions such as relocation or evacuation, and d) the total risk to the population from the various types of accident. The model, the underlying parameters and assumptions are described. The bone marrow dose distribution is shown for the case of late overpressure containment failure, which is discussed in the paper of Heuser/Kotthoff, combined with four typical weather conditions. The probability distribution functions for acute mortality, late incidence of cancer and genetic damage are evaluated, assuming a characteristic population distribution. The aim of these calculations is first the presentation of some results of the consequence model as an example, in second the identification of problems, which need possibly in a second phase of study to be evaluated in more detail. (orig.) [de

Formation of decontamination cost calculation model for severe accident consequence assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silva, Kampanart; Promping, Jiraporn; Okamoto, Koji; Ishiwatari, Yuki

2014-01-01

In previous studies, the authors developed an index “cost per severe accident” to perform a severe accident consequence assessment that can cover various kinds of accident consequences, namely health effects, economic, social and environmental impacts. Though decontamination cost was identified as a major component, it was taken into account using simple and conservative assumptions, which make it difficult to have further discussions. The decontamination cost calculation model was therefore reconsidered. 99 parameters were selected to take into account all decontamination-related issues, and the decontamination cost calculation model was formed. The distributions of all parameters were determined. A sensitivity analysis using the Morris method was performed in order to identify important parameters that have large influence on the cost per severe accident and large extent of interactions with other parameters. We identified 25 important parameters, and fixed most negligible parameters to the median of their distributions to form a simplified decontamination cost calculation model. Calculations of cost per severe accident with the full model (all parameters distributed), and with the simplified model were performed and compared. The differences of the cost per severe accident and its components were not significant, which ensure the validity of the simplified model. The simplified model is used to perform a full scope calculation of the cost per severe accident and compared with the previous study. The decontamination cost increased its importance significantly. (author)

Additional investigations on the consequences of accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ehrhardt, J.; Bayer, A.; Burkart, K.

1982-01-01

As a first step to improve the accident consequence model of the German Risk Study within the Phase B, additional investigations on special problems and questions were performed. In detail attention is given to the following topics: emergency protective actions in the vicinity of the site; latent cancer fatalities - allocated to the population living during the nuclear accident and to persons born afterwards, within and beyond a distance of 540 km from the site, caused by radiation doses below the dose limits of the German radiation protection regulations estimated assuming a nonlinear dose response function; risk assessments of nuclear power plants with lower capacities; loss of life expectancy after accidental radiation exposure. All results are presented separately for the 8 release categories of the German Risk Study. (orig.) [de

Estimated consequences from severe spent nuclear fuel transportation accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arnish, J.J.; Monette, F.; LePoire, D.; Biwer, B.M.

1996-01-01

The RISKIND software package is used to estimate radiological consequences of severe accident scenarios involving the transportation of spent nuclear fuel. Radiological risks are estimated for both a collective population and a maximally exposed individual based on representative truck and rail cask designs described in the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) modal study. The estimate of collective population risk considers all possible environmental pathways, including acute and long-term exposures, and is presented in terms of the 50-y committed effective dose equivalent. Radiological risks to a maximally exposed individual from acute exposure are estimated and presented in terms of the first year and 50-y committed effective dose equivalent. Consequences are estimated for accidents occurring in rural and urban population areas. The modeled pathways include inhalation during initial passing of the radioactive cloud, external exposure from a reduction of the cask shielding, long-term external exposure. from ground deposition, and ingestion from contaminated food (rural only). The major pathways and contributing radionuclides are identified, and the effects of possible mitigative actions are discussed. The cask accident responses and the radionuclide release fractions are modeled as described in the NRC modal study. Estimates of severe accident probabilities are presented for both truck and rail modes of transport. The assumptions made in this study tend to be conservative; however, a set of multiplicative factors are identified that can be applied to estimate more realistic conditions

Chernobyl radiological data for accident consequence assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bottino, A.; Sacripanti, A.

1989-01-01

In this draft is presented the results of a first effort to summarize information related to the radionuclides behaviour in rural areas, in order to estimate pathway parameters to assess accident consequences. This topic encloses relevant aspects concerning contamination of rural environment, the most important being: 1) dry deposition velocities; 2) washout coefficient; 3) accumulation in lakes; 4) migration in soil; 5) winter conditions; 6) filtering effects of forests

Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for Ignalina NPP confinement in case of loss of coolant accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Urbonavicius, E.; Babilas, E.; Rimkevicius, S.

2003-01-01

At present the best-estimate approach in the safety analysis of nuclear power plants is widely used around the world. The application of such approach requires to estimate the uncertainty of the calculated results. Various methodologies are applied in order to determine the uncertainty with the required accuracy. One of them is the statistical methodology developed at GRS mbH in Germany and integrated into the SUSA tool, which was applied for the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the thermal-hydraulic parameters inside the confinement (Accident Localisation System) of Ignalina NPP with RBMK-1500 reactor in case of Maximum Design Basis Accident (break of 900 mm diameter pipe). Several parameters that could potentially influence the calculated results were selected for the analysis. A set of input data with different initial values of the selected parameters was generated. In order to receive the results with 95 % probability and 95 % accuracy, 100 runs were performed with COCOSYS code developed at GRS mbH. The calculated results were processed with SUSA tool. The performed analysis showed a rather low dispersion of the results and only in the initial period of the accident. Besides, the analysis showed that there is no threat to the building structures of Ignalina NPP confinement in case of the considered accident scenario. (author)

The consequences of the Chernobyl nuclear accident in Greece - Report No. 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1986-12-01

In this report a realistic estimate of the radioactive fallout on Greece from the Chernobyl nuclear accident is described. The measurements performed on environmental samples and samples of the food chain, as well as some realistic estimations for the population doses and the expected consequences of the accident are presented. The analysis has shown that the radiological impact of the accident in Greece can be considered minor. (J.K.)

The fuzzy set theory application to the analysis of accident progression event trees with phenomenological uncertainty issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chun, Moon-Hyun; Ahn, Kwang-Il

1991-01-01

Fuzzy set theory provides a formal framework for dealing with the imprecision and vagueness inherent in the expert judgement, and therefore it can be used for more effective analysis of accident progression of PRA where experts opinion is a major means for quantifying some event probabilities and uncertainties. In this paper, an example application of the fuzzy set theory is first made to a simple portion of a given accident progression event tree with typical qualitative fuzzy input data, and thereby computational algorithms suitable for application of the fuzzy set theory to the accident progression event tree analysis are identified and illustrated with example applications. Then the procedure used in the simple example is extended to extremely complex accident progression event trees with a number of phenomenological uncertainty issues, i.e., a typical plant damage state 'SEC' of the Zion Nuclear Power Plant risk assessment. The results show that the fuzzy averages of the fuzzy outcomes are very close to the mean values obtained by current methods. The main purpose of this paper is to provide a formal procedure for application of the fuzzy set theory to accident progression event trees with imprecise and qualitative branch probabilities and/or with a number of phenomenological uncertainty issues. (author)

One decade after Chernobyl. Summing up the consequences of the accident. Proceedings of an international conference

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1996-01-01

The consequences attributed to the disastrous accident that occurred at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant on 26 April 1986 have been subjected to extensive scientific examination; however, they are still viewed with widely differing perspectives. It is fitting then that, ten years after the accident, the European Commission (EC), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the World Health Organization (WHO) should jointly sponsor an international conference to review the consequences of the accident and to seek a common and conclusive understanding of their nature and magnitude. The International Conference on One Decade after Chernobyl: Summing up the Consequences of the Accident was held at the Austria Center, Vienna, on 8-12 April 1996. Refs, figs, tabs

Environmental consequences of releases from nuclear accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tveten, U.

1990-01-01

The primary purpose of this report is to present the results of a four-year Nordic cooperation program in the area of consequence assessment of nuclear accidents with large releases to the environment. This program was completed in 1989. Related information from other research programs has also been described, so that many chapters of the report reflect the current status in the respective areas, in addition to containing the results of the Nordic program. (author) 179 refs

An information-theoretic basis for uncertainty analysis: application to the QUASAR severe accident study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Unwin, S.D.; Cazzoli, E.G.; Davis, R.E.; Khatib-Rahbar, M.; Lee, M.; Nourbakhsh, H.; Park, C.K.; Schmidt, E.

1989-01-01

The probabilistic characterization of uncertainty can be problematic in circumstances where there is a paucity of supporting data and limited experience on which to base engineering judgement. Information theory provides a framework in which to address this issue through reliance upon entropy-related principles of uncertainty maximization. We describe an application of such principles in the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission-sponsored program QUASAR (Quantification and Uncertainty Analysis of Source Terms for Severe Accidents in Light Water Reactors). (author)

The consequences of the Chernobyl reactor accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knoechel, A.

1988-01-01

After the decay of the iodine isotopes the measuring campaigns, in addition to the measuring of soil pollution and pollution of products, concentrated on the way of the cesium isotopes through the food chain, especially in crops, milk, meat and mother's milk. A special programme was developed for the analysis of foreign basic substances for teas, essences and tinctures. In connection with the incorporation measurements in the university hospital Eppendorf the measurement campaigns provided the data material in order to calculate with the aid of the computer program ECOSYS of the GSF the effective dose equivalent which the inhabitants of Hamburg additionally take up due to the accident of Chernobyl. Consequences with regard to measuring methods and social consequences are mentioned. (DG) [de

Uncertainties in radioactivity release from LWR plants under LOCA conditions - magnitude and consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mattila, L.J.

1977-01-01

Standardized, deterministic, and supposedly conservative calculation methods and parameter values are applied in radiological safety analyses required for licensing individual nuclear power plants. As realistic as possible and comprehensive analyses are, however, absolutely necessary for many purposes, such as developing improved designs, comparisons between nuclear and non-nuclear power plant alternatives or entire energy production strategies, and also formulating improved acceptance criteria for plant licensing. A specific type of LOCA, called design basis accident (DBA), has obtained an exceptionally important status in the licensing procedure of light water reactor nuclear power plants. This postulated accident has a decisive influence on plant siting and on the design of the various engineered safety features. To avoid certain potential negative effects of the highly standardized guideline-based accident analysis procedure - such as introduction of apparent design ''improvements'', wrong priorization of research efforts, etc. - and to provide a realistic view about the safety of light water reactors to supplement the conservative results from regulatory analyses, a comprehensive understanding of the radiological consequences of LOCA's is indispensable. Estimates of fission product release from LWR plants under different LOCA conditions are associated with uncertainties due to deficient knowledge and truly random variability. The following steps of the fission product transport chain are discussed: generation of activity, fission product release from fuel to fuel pin voids prior to the accident, fuel rod puncturing and fission product release from punctured rods during the accident, further release from fuel during the transient, transport to the containment and finally removal in and leakage from the containment. Numerical examples are given by comparing assumptions, parameter values, and results from the following four analyses: the present guideline

The cost of nuclear accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2015-01-01

Proposed by a technical section of the SFEN, and based on a meeting with representatives of different organisations (OECD-NEA, IRSN, EDF, and European Nuclear Energy Forum), this publication addresses the economic consequences of a severe accident (level 6 or 7) within an electricity producing nuclear power plant. Such an assessment essentially relies on three pillars: release of radio-elements outside the reactor, the scenario of induced consequences, and the method of economic quantification. After a recall and a comment of safety arrangements, and of the generally admitted probability of such an accident, this document notices that several actors are concerned by nuclear energy and are trying to assess accident costs. The issue of how to assess a cost (or costs) of a nuclear accident is discussed: there are in fact several types of costs and consequences. Thus, some costs can be rather precisely quantified when some others can be difficult to assess or with uncertainty. The relevance of some cost categories appears to be a matter of discussion and one must not forget that consequences can occur on a long term. The need for methodological advances is outlined and three categories of technical objectives are identified for the assessment (efficiency of safety measures to be put forward to mitigate the risk via a better accident management, compensation of victims and nuclear civil responsibility, and comparison of electricity production sectors and assessment of externalisation to guide public choices). It is outlined that the impact of accidents depend on several factors, that the most efficient mean to limit consequences of accidents is of course to limit radioactive emissions

Information on the Chernobyl NPP accident and its consequencies prepared for IAEA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1986-11-01

The information on the accident at the 4th power unit of the Chernobyl NPP and its consequences prepared for IAEA on the basis of the conclusions made by the Government commission constituted for investigating the accident causes and implementing the necessary emergency and reconstruction measures is given. The accident with reactor core disruption and partial destruction of the building Lappened on 26.04.86 at 1 hour and 23 minutes. The accident occurred before reactor shut-down for planned repairs during the testing of one of turbogenerators. The design features of the RBMK-1000 reactor plant, its main physical characteristics and parameters of the NPP safety system are considered. The chronology of the accident development and the results of analysis carried out using a mathematical model are given. The causes of the accident are analyzed. The measures for preventing the accident development and lessening its consequences as well as those for the environment radioactive contamination control and sanitary provisions are described in detail. The conclusion is made that the original cause of the accident is highly improbable combination of disorder and errors in operational conditions made by the personnel of the power unit. It is emphasized that development of the world nuclear engineering, besides advantages in the field of power supply and natural resources conservation, incurs also damages of international character. Among these are transboundary radioactivity transport, in particular, during serious radiation accidents and the danger of international terrorism and specific radiation hazard of nuclear objects under war conditions. All this defines the key necessity of deep international cooperation in the field of nuclear power engineering and its safeguarding.

Minimization of the occupational doses during the liquidation of the radiation accident consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuryndina, Lidia; Stroganov, Anatoly; Kuryndin, Anton

2008-01-01

Full text: As known the accident on the Chernobylskaya npp is the heaviest one in the nuclear energy history. It showed how considerable can be radiation levels on the breakdown nuclear facility. Nevertheless Russian specialists on radiation protection worked out and successfully realized a conception of the working in such conditions during the liquidation of the accident consequences. The conception based out on using ALARA principle, included the methods of radiation fields structure analysis and allowed to minimize of the occupational doses at operations of the accident consequences liquidation. The main idea of the conception is in strongly dependence between the radiation dose of the personnel performing the liquidation operations and concrete sequence of these operations. Also it is necessary from time to time to receive the experimental information about radiation situation dynamics on the breakdown facility and to make variant calculations for optimizing for the successful implementation of such approach. The structure of these calculations includes variable fraction for the actual state of the facility before the accident and after one and not variable fraction depend on the geometric and protection characteristics of the facility. And the second part is more complicated and bigger. Therefore the most part of these calculations required for the any successful liquidation of the accident consequences can be made on the facility projecting stage. If it will be made the following tasks can be solved in case of the accident: 1) To estimate a distribution of the contamination source using the radiation control system indications; 2) To determine a contribution from each source to the dose rate for any contaminated area; 3) To estimate the radiation doses of the personnel participated in the accident consequences liquidation; 4) To select and to realize the sequence of the liquidation operations giving the minimal doses. The paper will overview the description

Applications of probabilistic accident consequence evaluation in Cuba

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rodriguez, J.M.

1996-01-01

Are presented the approaches and results of the application of Accident Consequence Evaluation methodologies in on emergency in the Juragua Nuclear Power Plant site and a population evaluation of a planned NPP site in the east of the country Findings on population sector weighing and assessment of effectiveness of primary countermeasures in the event of sever accidents (SST1 and PWR4 source terms) in Juragua NPP site are discussed Results on comparative risk-based evaluation of the population predicted evolution (in 3 temporal horizons: base year, 2005 year and 2050 year) for the planned site are described. Evaluation also included sector risk weighing, risk importance of small towns in the nearby of the effects on risk of population freezing and relocation of these villages

Two decades of radiological accidents direct causes, roots causes and consequences

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rozental Jose de Julio

2002-01-01

Full Text Available Practically all Countries utilize radioisotopes in medicine, industry, agriculture and research. The extent to which ionizing radiation practices are employed varies considerably, depending largely upon social and economic conditions and the level of technical skills available in the country. An overview of the majority of practices and the associated hazards will be found in the Table IV to VII of this document. The practices in normal and abnormal operating conditions should follow the basic principles of radiation protection and the Safety of Radiation Sources, considering the IAEA Radiation Protection and the Safety of Radiation Sources, Safety Series 120 and the IAEA Recommendation of the Basic Safety Standards for Radiation Protection, Safety Series Nº 115. The Standards themselves underline the necessity to be able to predict the radiological consequences of emergency conditions and the investigations that should need to be done. This paper describes the major accidents that had happened in the last two decades, provides a methodology for analyses and gives a collection of lessons learned. This will help the Regulatory Authority to review the reasons of vulnerabilities, and to start a Radiation safety and Security Programme to introduce measurescapable to avoid the recurrence of similar events. Although a number of accidents with fatalities have caught the attention of the public in recent year, a safety record has accompanied the widespread use of radiation sources. However, the fact that accidents are uncommon should not give grounds for complacency. No radiological accident is acceptable. From a radiation safety and security of the sources standpoint, accident investigation is necessary to determine what happened, why, when, where and how it occurred and who was (were involved and responsible. The investigation conclusion is an important process toward alertness and feedback to avoid careless attitudes by improving the comprehension

Problems of softening the Chernobyl accident consequences. Proceedings of the International seminar. Pt. 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-01-01

Proceedings of the International seminar on the Problems to soften the Chernobyl accident consequences held by the International Association of Dissemination of Knowledge and the Russian branch of the Society on the Dissemination of Knowledge in Bryansk in 1993. The proceedings of the seminar deal with the study of scientific and practical activity linked with the elimination of the Chernobyl accident effects. Main theoretical concepts used as the basis of the elaborated regulations are presented, as well; ways and techniques to soften the consequences of the Chernobyl accident to decontaminate the affected territories and to protect the population health are discussed

Dispersion parameters: impact on calculated reactor accident consequences

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aldrich, D.C.

1979-01-01

Much attention has been given in recent years to the modeling of the atmospheric dispersion of pollutants released from a point source. Numerous recommendations have been made concerning the choice of appropriate dispersion parameters. A series of calculations has been performed to determine the impact of these recommendations on the calculated consequences of large reactor accidents. Results are presented and compared in this paper.

Accident consequence calculations for project W-058 safety analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Keuren, J.C.

1997-01-01

This document describes the calculations performed to determine the accident consequences for the W-058 safety analysis. Project W-058 is the replacement cross site transfer system (RCSTS), which is designed to transort liquid waste between the 200 W and 200 E areas. Calculations for RCSTS safety analyses used the same methods as the calculations for the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) and its supporting calculation notes. Revised analyses were performed for the spray and pool leak accidents since the RCSTS flows and pressures differ from those assumed in the TWRS BIO. Revision 1 of the document incorporates review comments

Research activities about the radiological consequences of the Chernobyl NPS accident and social activities to assist the sufferers by the accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Imanaka, T.

1998-03-01

The 12th anniversary is coming soon of the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power station in the former USSR on April 26, 1986. Many issues are, however, still unresolved about the radiological impacts on the environment and people due to the Chernobyl accident. This report contains the results of an international collaborative project about the radiological consequences of the Chernobyl accident, carried out from November 1995 to October 1997 under the research grant of the Toyota foundation. Collaborative works were promoted along with the following 5 sub-themes: 1) General description of research activities in Russia, Belarus and Ukraine concerning the radiological consequences of the accident. 2) Investigation of the current situation of epidemiological studies about Chernobyl in each affected country. 3) Investigation of acute radiation syndrome among inhabitants evacuated soon after the accident from the 30 km zone around the Chernobyl NPS. 4) Overview of social activities to assist the sufferers by the accident in each affected country. 5) Preparation of special reports of interesting studies being carried out in each affected country. The 27 papers are indexed individually. (J.P.N.)

Severe Accident Research Network (SARNET). Level 2 PSA work package: comparison of partners methods for uncertainties assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chaumont, B.; Haesendonck, M.; Vidal, S.; Eyink, J.; Loeffler, H.; Radu, G.; Kopustinskas, V.; Ming, A.; Guntay, S.; Gustavsson, V.; Ivanov, I.; Dienstbier, J.; Bareith, A.; Hollo, E.; Lajtha, G.

2007-01-01

The PSA2 work package (PSA2 WP) is a part of the Joined Programme Activity of the European Severe Accident Network (SARNET) related to level 2 PSA methodologies. The general objectives of this work package is to provide a comparison of the different methodologies used or under development for level 2 PSA application by the partners involved in the work package and to promote their harmonization. The PSA2 WP is organized into three main topics: methodologies in general, methodologies for uncertainties assessment, and dynamic reliability methods. The different tasks initially defined for these three topics are shortly described and the partners involved identified. Attention is then paid on the methodologies used so far by the different partners to assess the uncertainties in their level 2 PSA. A review of partners approaches to assess - as far as possible - the different sources of possible uncertainties is done for the different following topics: - uncertainties propagated from the level 1 PSA, - uncertainties (in sense of approximation) due to the binning of the level 1 sequences in Plant Damage, - uncertainties related to the structure of the Accident Progression Event Tree, - uncertainties related to the probabilities of stochastic events (system failure or recovery, human actions, some physical phenomena such as ignition of hydrogen combustion or triggering of steam explosion), - uncertainties elated to the modelling of the different physical phenomena, - uncertainties related to the cut-off frequency used in the probabilistic quantification of the Accident Progression Event Tree; - uncertainties related to the binning of level 2 sequences in Release Categories (variables not considered, values of eventual continuous variables). First conclusions of the comparison are given in terms of improvement needs and then of perspectives of the work for the following period of work. (authors)

The sensitivity of calculated doses to critical assumptions for the offsite consequences of nuclear power reactor accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moeller, M.P.; Scherpelz, R.I.; Desrosiers, A.E.

1982-01-01

This work analyzes the sensitivity of calculated doses to critical assumptions for offsite consequences following a PWR-2 accident at a nuclear power reactor. The calculations include three radiation dose pathways: internal dose resulting from inhalation, external doses from exposure to the plume, and external doses from exposure to contaminated ground. The critical parameters are the time period of integration for internal dose commitment and the duration of residence on contaminated ground. The data indicate the calculated offsite whole body dose will vary by as much as 600% depending upon the parameters assumed. When offsite radiation doses determine the size of emergency planning zones, this uncertainty has significant effect upon the resources allocated to emergency preparedness

Modeling the economic consequences of LWR accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burke, R.P.; Aldrich, D.C.; Rasmussen, N.C.

1984-01-01

Models to be used for analyses of economic risks from events which may occur during LWR plant operation are developed in this study. The models include capabilities to estimate both onsite and offsite costs of LWR events ranging from routine plant outages to severe core-melt accidents resulting in large releases of radioactive material to the environment. The models can be used by both the nuclear power industry and regulatory agencies in cost-benefit analyses for decisionmaking purposes. The newly developed economic consequence models are applied in an example to estimate the economic risks from operation of the Surry Unit 2 plant. The analyses indicate that economic risks from US LWR operation, in contrast to public health risks, are dominated by relatively high-frequency forced outage events. Even for severe (e.g., core-melt) accidents, expected offsite costs are less than expected onsite costs for the Surry site. The implications of these conclusions for nuclear power plant operation and regulation are discussed

Experience with COSYMA in an international intercomparison of probabilistic accident consequence assessment codes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hasemann, I.; Jones, J.A.; Steen, J. van der; Wonderen, E. van

1996-01-01

The Commission of the European Communities and the Nuclear Energy Agency of the OECD have organized an international exercise to compare the predictions of accident consequence assessment codes, and to identify those features of the models which lead to differences in the predicted results. Alongside this, a further exercise was undertaken in which the COSYMA code was used independently by several different organizations. Some of the findings of the COSYMA users' exercise are described that have general applications to accident consequence assessments. A number of areas are identified in which further work on accident consequence models may be justified. These areas, which are also of interest for codes other than COSYMA, are (a) the calculation and averaging of doses and risks to people sheltered in different types of buildings, particularly with respect to the evaluation of early health effects; (b) the modeling of long-duration releases and their description as a series of shorter releases; (c) meteorological sampling for results at a certain location, specifically for use with trajectory models of atmospheric dispersion; and (d) aspects of calculating probabilities of consequences at a point

Effects of rainstorms and runoff on consequences of nuclear reactor accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ritchie, L.T.; Brown, W.D.; Wayland, J.R.

1976-10-01

A preliminary model describing the effects of washout and runoff on the consequences of a nuclear reactor accident is presented. The most important new feature of this stratified model relative to the model in WASH-1400 is the spatial structure of rainstorms and runoff consisting of four levels of rain activity that are normalized by rain gage data. The predicted concentrations of radioactivity and resultant health consequences of the stratified model are compared with those of the model in WASH-1400 for simplified rainstorms with fixed meteorological conditions, an actual rainstorm, and a stratified sample run consisting of 91 separate reactor accidents. In the case of individual storms, runoff and the spatial structure of the rain in the new model can result in health consequences that are significantly different from those of the WASH-1400 model. The differences between the predictions of the two models are small for the stratified sample run

Study on the code system for the off-site consequences assessment of severe nuclear accident

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Sora; Mn, Byung Il; Park, Ki Hyun; Yang, Byung Mo; Suh, Kyung Suk [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-12-15

The importance of severe nuclear accidents and probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) were brought to international attention with the occurrence of severe nuclear accidents caused by the extreme natural disaster at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in Japan. In Korea, studies on level 3 PSA had made little progress until recently. The code systems of level 3 PSA, MACCS2 (MELCORE Accident Consequence Code System 2, US), COSYMA (COde SYstem from MAria, EU) and OSCAAR (Off-Site Consequence Analysis code for Atmospheric Releases in reactor accidents, JAPAN), were reviewed in this study, and the disadvantages and limitations of MACCS2 were also analyzed. Experts from Korea and abroad pointed out that the limitations of MACCS2 include the following: MACCS2 cannot simulate multi-unit accidents/release from spent fuel pools, and its atmospheric dispersion is based on a simple Gaussian plume model. Some of these limitations have been improved in the updated versions of MACCS2. The absence of a marine and aquatic dispersion model and the limited simulating range of food-chain and economic models are also important aspects that need to be improved. This paper is expected to be utilized as basic research material for developing a Korean code system for assessing off-site consequences of severe nuclear accidents.

Study on the code system for the off-site consequences assessment of severe nuclear accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Sora; Mn, Byung Il; Park, Ki Hyun; Yang, Byung Mo; Suh, Kyung Suk

2016-01-01

The importance of severe nuclear accidents and probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) were brought to international attention with the occurrence of severe nuclear accidents caused by the extreme natural disaster at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in Japan. In Korea, studies on level 3 PSA had made little progress until recently. The code systems of level 3 PSA, MACCS2 (MELCORE Accident Consequence Code System 2, US), COSYMA (COde SYstem from MAria, EU) and OSCAAR (Off-Site Consequence Analysis code for Atmospheric Releases in reactor accidents, JAPAN), were reviewed in this study, and the disadvantages and limitations of MACCS2 were also analyzed. Experts from Korea and abroad pointed out that the limitations of MACCS2 include the following: MACCS2 cannot simulate multi-unit accidents/release from spent fuel pools, and its atmospheric dispersion is based on a simple Gaussian plume model. Some of these limitations have been improved in the updated versions of MACCS2. The absence of a marine and aquatic dispersion model and the limited simulating range of food-chain and economic models are also important aspects that need to be improved. This paper is expected to be utilized as basic research material for developing a Korean code system for assessing off-site consequences of severe nuclear accidents

Potential applicability of fuzzy set theory to analyses of containment response and uncertainty for postulated severe accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chun, M.H.; Ahn, K.I.

1991-01-01

An important issue faced by contemporary risk analysts of nuclear power plants is how to deal with uncertainties that arise in each phase of probabilistic risk assessments. The major uncertainty addressed in this paper is the one that arises in the accident-progression event trees (APETs), which treat the physical processes affecting the core after an initiating event occurs. Recent advances in the theory of fuzzy sets make it possible to analyze the uncertainty related to complex physical phenomena that may occur during a severe accident of nuclear power plants by means of fuzzy set or possibility concept. The main purpose of this paper is to prevent the results of assessment of the potential applicability of the fuzzy set theory to the uncertainty analysis of APETs as a possible alternative procedure to that used in the most recent risk assessment

Effects of spent fuel types on offsite consequences of hypothetical accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Courtney, J. C.; Dwight, C. C.; Lehto, M. A.

2000-01-01

Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) conducts experimental work on the development of waste forms suitable for several types of spent fuel at its facility on the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) located 48 km West of Idaho Falls, ID. The objective of this paper is to compare the offsite radiological consequences of hypothetical accidents involving the various types of spent nuclear fuel handled in nonreactor nuclear facilities. The highest offsite total effective dose equivalents (TEDEs) are estimated at a receptor located about 5 km SSE of ANL facilities. Criticality safety considerations limit the amount of enriched uranium and plutonium that could be at risk in any given scenario. Heat generated by decay of fission products and actinides does not limit the masses of spent fuel within any given operation because the minimum time elapsed since fissions occurred in any form is at least five years. At cooling times of this magnitude, fewer than ten radionuclides account for 99% of the projected TEDE at offsite receptors for any credible accident. Elimination of all but the most important nuclides allows rapid assessments of offsite doses with little loss of accuracy. Since the ARF (airborne release fraction), RF (respirable fraction), LPF (leak path fraction) and atmospheric dilution factor (χ/Q) can vary by orders of magnitude, it is not productive to consider nuclides that contribute less than a few percent of the total dose. Therefore, only 134 Cs, 137 Cs- 137m Ba, and the actinides significantly influence the offsite radiological consequences of severe accidents. Even using highly conservative assumptions in estimating radiological consequences, they remain well below current Department of Energy guidelines for highly unlikely accidents

Developments in modelling the economic impact of Off-site accident consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haywood, S.M.; Robinson, C.A.; Faude, D.

1991-01-01

Models for assessing the economic consequences of accidental releases of radioactivity have application both in accident consequence codes and in decision aiding computer systems for use in emergency response. Such models may be applied in emergency planning, and studies in connection with the siting, design and licensing of nuclear facilities. Several models for predicting economic impact have been developed, in Europe and the US, and these are reviewed. A new model, called COCO-1 (Cost of Consequences Off-site), has been developed under the CEC MARIA programme and the features of the model are summarised. The costs calculated are a measure of the benefit foregone as a result of the accident, and in addition to tangible monetary costs the model attempts to include costs arising from the effect of the accident on individuals, for instance the disruption caused by the loss of homes. COCO-1 includes the cost of countermeasures, namely evacuation, relocation, sheltering, food restrictions and decontamination, and also the cost of health effects in the exposed population. The primary quantity used in COCO-1 to measure the economic value of land subject to restrictions on usage is Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Examples of default data included in the model are presented, as are the results of an illustrative application. The limitations of COCO-1 are discussed, and areas where further data are needed are identified

A study into the consequences of a nuclear accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arnott, D.G.

1987-07-01

The nuclear industry in Britain would like to believe, and would like the general public to believe, that major accidents such as that at Chernobyl in 1986, could no happen in Britain, because the design and operating procedure have been made as safe as possible. However, because the designers and operators are human, they can make mistakes. Some of these are mentioned; errors of design, errors of maintenance or inspection and errors of judgement. In spite of protestations to the contrary, a major accident could occur at Sizewell-B reactor. Given that this a real possibility, plans should be drawn up to prepare for the situation. The study considers the possible consequences of a nuclear accident under the headings, human error, how nuclear fission works, radioactivity, the truth about Chernobyl, what patterns of reactor accident are possible, what can be done (this includes meteorological information, the issuing of potassium iodate tables, radiation monitoring and evacuation). Practical issues which should concern the local authorities, especially Wrekin Council, are discussed and a recommendation made for an environmental protection officer to be appointed to keep the matter under continuing review. (U.K.)

Qualification and application of nuclear reactor accident analysis code with the capability of internal assessment of uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borges, Ronaldo Celem

2001-10-01

This thesis presents an independent qualification of the CIAU code ('Code with the capability of - Internal Assessment of Uncertainty') which is part of the internal uncertainty evaluation process with a thermal hydraulic system code on a realistic basis. This is done by combining the uncertainty methodology UMAE ('Uncertainty Methodology based on Accuracy Extrapolation') with the RELAP5/Mod3.2 code. This allows associating uncertainty band estimates with the results obtained by the realistic calculation of the code, meeting licensing requirements of safety analysis. The independent qualification is supported by simulations with RELAP5/Mod3.2 related to accident condition tests of LOBI experimental facility and to an event which has occurred in Angra 1 nuclear power plant, by comparison with measured results and by establishing uncertainty bands on safety parameter calculated time trends. These bands have indeed enveloped the measured trends. Results from this independent qualification of CIAU have allowed to ascertain the adequate application of a systematic realistic code procedure to analyse accidents with uncertainties incorporated in the results, although there is an evident need of extending the uncertainty data base. It has been verified that use of the code with this internal assessment of uncertainty is feasible in the design and license stages of a NPP. (author)

Fukushima accident: the consequences in Japan, France and in Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Foucher, N.; Sorin, F.

2011-01-01

This document begins with a description of the Fukushima accident, the second article reviews the main consequences in Japan of the accident: setting of a forbidden zone around the plant, restriction of the exports of food products, or the shutdown of the Hamaoka plant. The third article is the reporting of an interview of L. Oursel, deputy general director of the Areva group, this interview deals mainly with the safety standard of the EPR and with the issue of passive safety systems. The last part of the document is dedicated to the consequences in France (null sanitary impact, cooperation between Areva, EdF, CEA and the Japanese plant operator Tepco...) and in the rest of the world: the organization of resistance tests in the nuclear power plants operating in the European Union, the decision about the agreement of EPR and AP1000 reactor has been delayed in United-Kingdom, acceleration of the German program for abandoning nuclear energy, Italy suspends its nuclear program, China orders a general overhaul of the safety standard of its nuclear power plants, Poland and Romania reaffirm their trust in nuclear energy, France wishes a 'mechanism' allowing a quick international intervention in case of major nuclear accident, Russia proposes measures to improve nuclear safety. (A.C.)

The international conference ''one decade after Chernobyl: Summing up the consequences of the accident''

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1996-01-01

An International Conference entitled ''One decade after Chernobyl: Summing up the consequences of the accident'' was held at the Austria Center Vienna from 8 to 12 April 1996, the aim being to seek a common and conclusive understanding of the nature and magnitude of the consequences of the Chernobyl accident. The Conference was attended by 845 participants and observers from 71 countries and 20 organizations and covered by 208 journalists from 31 countries and two organizations

Review of severe accidents and the results of accident consequence assessment in different energy systems (Contract research)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsuki, Yoshio; Muramatsu, Ken

2008-05-01

The cases of severe accidents and the consequence assessments in different energy systems, Coal, Oil, Gas, Hydro and Nuclear, were collected, and then they were further analyzed. In this report, the information on the accidents in various energy systems were collected from the sources of the Paul Scherrer Institute (hereinafter, 'PSI') and the International Atomic Energy Agency (hereinafter, 'IAEA'). The information on the severe accidents of nuclear power plants were collected from the report of the US Presidential Commission on Catastrophic Nuclear Accidents and several relevant reports issued in the countries of the European Union, together with the reports of the PSI and the IAEA. To analyze the collected information, several parameters, which are numbers of fatalities, injuries, evacuees and the costs of the damages, were chosen to characterize those accidents in different energy systems. And then, upon the comparison of these characteristics of different accidents, the impacts of the accidents in nuclear and other energy systems were compared. Upon the results of the analysis, it is pointed out that the cost caused by the Chernobyl Accident, the severe accident in nuclear energy, tends to be higher than in the other energy systems. On the other hand, from the aspects of fatalities and injuries, it is not confirmed that the damages of the Chernobyl Accident are larger than in the other energy systems. However, it is also recognized, as the specific characteristics of the severe nuclear accident, that the impacts of the accident spread in a wider area, and stay for a longer period, in comparison with the ones in the other energy systems. (author)

Consequences of the Chernobyl accident in France. Thematic sheets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-01-01

This document proposes a set of commented maps, graphs and drawings which illustrate and describe various consequences of the Chernobyl accident in France, such as air contamination (scattering of radioactive particles emitted by the reactor explosion by the wind over thousands of kilometres, evolution of air contamination between April 30 and May 5 1986), ground deposits (influence of rain, heterogeneity of these deposits), contamination of farm products (relationship between the accident date and the deposit characteristics, variable decrease rate of contamination, faster decrease of farm product contamination that caesium radioactive decay since 1987, particular cases of some more sensitive products), health effects (low doses received by the French population, concerns about thyroid cancers)

Impact of source terms on distances to which reactor accident consequences occur

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ostmeyer, R.M.

1982-01-01

Estimates of the distances over which reactor accident consequences might occur are important for development of siting criteria and for emergency response planning. This paper summarizes the results of a series of CRAC2 calculations performed to estimate these distances. Because of the current controversy concerning the magnitude of source terms for severe accidents, the impact of source term reductions upon distance estimates is also examined

Radiation accidents: occurrence, types, consequences, medical management, and the lessons to be learned

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Turai, I.; Veress, K.

2001-01-01

The paper reviews the frequency, causes and occurrence of radiation accidents with some significant exposure to human. More detailed information is provided in tabulated form on the health consequences of those twenty severe radiation accidents that occurred in 1986-2000, world-wide. Reference is given to the very low cumulative incidence of significant radiation accidents, as during the last 57 years there were, in average, seven registered accidents annually in all countries of the world. Thus, the chance for most of the physicians to meet a patient with symptoms of acute radiation injury during their professional career is very low

Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 Accident Progression Uncertainty Analysis and Implications for Decommissioning of Fukushima Reactors - Volume I.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gauntt, Randall O. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mattie, Patrick D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2016-01-01

Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has conducted an uncertainty analysis (UA) on the Fukushima Daiichi unit (1F1) accident progression with the MELCOR code. The model used was developed for a previous accident reconstruction investigation jointly sponsored by the US Department of Energy (DOE) and Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). That study focused on reconstructing the accident progressions, as postulated by the limited plant data. This work was focused evaluation of uncertainty in core damage progression behavior and its effect on key figures-of-merit (e.g., hydrogen production, reactor damage state, fraction of intact fuel, vessel lower head failure). The primary intent of this study was to characterize the range of predicted damage states in the 1F1 reactor considering state of knowledge uncertainties associated with MELCOR modeling of core damage progression and to generate information that may be useful in informing the decommissioning activities that will be employed to defuel the damaged reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. Additionally, core damage progression variability inherent in MELCOR modeling numerics is investigated.

Cohort formation for epidemiological study of medical consequences of the Chernobyl accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rozhko, A.V.; Masyakin, V.B.; Vlasova, N.G.

2008-01-01

Belarus State Registry of the Chernobyl-affected population contains information about 276 000 residents of the Republic of Belarus exposed due to the Chernobyl NPP accident. Evidently, the population who lived in the evacuation zone was exposed mostly to radiation and also people participating in the liquidation of the Chernobyl accident consequences (emergency workers) within this zone in early post accident period of the catastrophe. Taking into account this criterion, we singled out the group out of all data files including all people who stayed in the evacuation zone not later than on May 31, 1986. The total number of the group made up 39 548 people including 4251 people who were under 18 at the moment of the accident. By preliminary estimation the number of person-years taking into account the deceased and left out of observation made up at the beginning of 2007- 735 600. During the period since 1986 there was detected 2671 cases of malignant tumors in the cohort and among people who were children and adolescents in 1986 there was registered 106 cases of malignant tumors (82% -thyroid cancer). Among 7483 of the deceased, malignant tumors is the cause of death at 1260 people. At present the real number of alive and remained subjects under observation makes up 25359 people including 2321 people who were under 18 at the moment of the accident. This group will form the base for further prospective research aiming at assessment of medical consequences of the Chernobyl NPP accident. (author)

Proceedings of the first international conference 'The radiological consequences of the Chernobyl accident'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karaoglou, A.; Desmet, G.; Kelly, G.N.; Menzel, H.G.

1996-01-01

Five main objectives were assigned to the EC/CIS scientific collaborative programme: improvement of the knowledge of the relationship between doses and radiation-induced health effects; updating of the arrangements for off-site emergency management response (shot- and medium term)in the even of a future nuclear accident; assisting the relevant CIS Ministries alleviate the consequences of the Chernobyl accident, in particular in the field of restoration of contaminated territories; elaboration of a scientific basis to definite the content of Community assistance programmes; updating of the local technical infrastructure, and implementation of a large programme of exchange of scientists between both Communities. The topics addressed during the Conference mainly reflect the content of the joint collaborative programme: environmental transfer and decontamination, risk assessment and management, health related issues including dosimetry. The main aims of the Conference are to present the major achievements of the joint EC/CIS collaborative research programme (1992-1995) of the consequences of the Chernobyl accident, and to promote an objective evaluation of them by the international scientific community. The Conference is taking place close to the 10 th anniversary of the accident and we hope it will contribute to more objective communication of the health and environmental consequences of the Chernobyl accident, and how these may be mitigated in future. The Conference is expected to be an important milestone in the series of meetings which will take place internationally around the 10 th anniversary of the nuclear accident. It also provides a major opportunity for all participants to become acquainted with software developed within the framework of the collaborative programme, namely: Geographical Information Systems displaying contamination levels and dose-commitments; Decision Support Systems for the management of contaminated territories; Decision Support Systems

Proceedings of the first international conference 'The radiological consequences of the Chernobyl accident'

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Karaoglou, A; Desmet, G; Kelly, G N; Menzel, H G [European Commission, Brussels (Belgium)

1996-07-01

Five main objectives were assigned to the EC/CIS scientific collaborative programme: improvement of the knowledge of the relationship between doses and radiation-induced health effects; updating of the arrangements for off-site emergency management response (shot- and medium term)in the even of a future nuclear accident; assisting the relevant CIS Ministries alleviate the consequences of the Chernobyl accident, in particular in the field of restoration of contaminated territories; elaboration of a scientific basis to definite the content of Community assistance programmes; updating of the local technical infrastructure, and implementation of a large programme of exchange of scientists between both Communities. The topics addressed during the Conference mainly reflect the content of the joint collaborative programme: environmental transfer and decontamination, risk assessment and management, health related issues including dosimetry. The main aims of the Conference are to present the major achievements of the joint EC/CIS collaborative research programme (1992-1995) of the consequences of the Chernobyl accident, and to promote an objective evaluation of them by the international scientific community. The Conference is taking place close to the 10{sup th} anniversary of the accident and we hope it will contribute to more objective communication of the health and environmental consequences of the Chernobyl accident, and how these may be mitigated in future. The Conference is expected to be an important milestone in the series of meetings which will take place internationally around the 10{sup th} anniversary of the nuclear accident. It also provides a major opportunity for all participants to become acquainted with software developed within the framework of the collaborative programme, namely: Geographical Information Systems displaying contamination levels and dose-commitments; Decision Support Systems for the management of contaminated territories; Decision Support

The accident of Chernobylsk-4 reactor and its consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1986-01-01

This report deals with the particulars of the accident as communicated by the Soviet delegation at an IAEA meeting by the and of August 1986. It was stated that the consequences emanated from the inherent instability of the design of the reactor, the deviation from the safety rules by the operators and the lack of a sight reactor containment. (G.B.)

Transfrontier consequences to the population of Greece of large scale nuclear accidents: a preliminary assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kollas, J.G.; Catsaros, Nicolas.

1985-06-01

In this report the consequences to the population of Greece from hypothetical large scale nuclear accidents at the Kozlodui (Bulgaria) nuclear power station are estimated under some simplifying assumptions. Three different hypothetical accident scenarios - the most serious for pressurized water reactors - are examined. The analysis is performed by the current Greek version of code CRAC2 and includes health and economic consequences to the population of Greece. (author)

OFFSITE RADIOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCE CALCULATION FOR THE BOUNDING MIXING OF INCOMPATIBLE MATERIALS ACCIDENT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

SANDGREN, K.R.

2006-01-01

This document quantifies the offsite radiological consequence of the bounding mixing of incompatible materials accident for comparison with the 25 rem Evaluation Guideline established in Appendix A of DOE-STD-3009. The bounding accident is an inadvertent addition of acid to a waste tank. The calculated offsite dose does not challenge the Evaluation Guideline. Revision 4 updates the analysis to consider bulk chemical additions to single shell tanks (SSTs)

The importance of long range atmospheric transport in probabilistic accident consequence assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

ApSimon, H.M.; Goddard, A.J.H.; Wilson, J.J.N.

1988-01-01

The disaster at the Chernobyl-4 reactor has demonstrated that severe nuclear accidents can give rise to significant radiological consequences several thousand kilometres from the source. The subsequent dispersion of the release over much of Western Europe further demonstrated the importance of synoptic scale weather patterns in determining the magnitude of the consequences of such accidents. A version of the MESOS-II European scale trajectory model, which is able to simulate large scale variations in weather conditions through the use of spatially and temporally variable meteorological input data, has been used to simulate the pattern of dispersion from Chernobyl with some success. This paper presents the results of probabilistic consequence assessments for a number of West European sites, made using the MESOS-II model. The results illustrate the effects, on probabilistic assessments, of using a more realistic treatment of long range atmospheric transport than the Gaussian plume model and also the spatial variation in the distributions of consequences arising from the variation in synoptic scale weather conditions across Western Europe

Small chances - great consequences or the consequences of a large-scale accident in a nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dijk, G. van; Smit, W.A.

1977-01-01

This report is a sequel to the previous Boerderijcahier (no. 7502) which discussed long-term effects of soil contamination in case of a nuclear power plant accident. In this report the short-term health effects are discussed. Models describing the local consequences of a severe accident are developed, taking into account the possible weather conditions (meteorological model), the evacuation possibilities and the inhabitability of certain areas. In each case long-term and short-term effects are discussed. The safety studies by various departments of the Netherlands' government and the Rasmussen report are commented on

Evaluation of food chain transfer data for use in accident consequence assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coughtrey, P.J.; Kirton, J.A.; Mitchell, N.G.

1991-01-01

Input data for the food chain transport component of radiological assessment models are summarised in the context of the sources of information available prior to the Chernobyl accident and those derived after the accident. Particular attention is devoted to interception and retention soil-to-plant, and plant-to-animal transfer, and to the applicability of environmental data to both equilibrium and time-dependent models. It is argued that much of the current uncertainty in parameter values for use in radiological assessment models reflects lack of understanding of processes involved in the various stages of transfer of radionuclides to man. The Chernobyl accident highlighted this lack of fundamental knowledge and illustrated a number of areas where further research and model development is justified. These areas are identified and suggestions given for appropriate research to support model development

In Vienna about Chernobyl. Summing up the consequences of the accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Latek, S.

1996-01-01

The Joint EC/IAEA/WHO International Conference ''One Decade after Chernobyl: Summing up the consequences of the accident'' has been held in Vienna, 8-12 April 1996. The most important subjects of the conference was: assessment of total releases and deposits, radiation doses, clinically observed effects, thyroid effects, longer term health effects, psychological and environmental consequences, social economic, institutional and political impact, nuclear safety, sarcophagus, perspective and prognosis

Reports of the Chernobyl accident consequences in Brazilian newspapers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vicente, Roberto; Oliveira, Rosana Lagua de

2009-01-01

The public perception of the risks associated with nuclear power plants was profoundly influenced by the accidents at Three Mile Island and Chernobyl Power Plants which also served to exacerbate in the last decades the growing mistrust on the 'nuclear industry'. Part of the mistrust had its origin in the arrogance of nuclear spokesmen and in the secretiveness of nuclear programs. However, press agencies have an important role in shaping and upsizing the public awareness against nuclear energy. In this paper we present the results of a survey in reports of some Brazilian popular newspapers on Chernobyl consequences, as measured by the total death toll of the accident, to show the up and down dance of large numbers without any serious judgment. (author)

Environmental radiological consequences of a loss of coolant accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guimaraes, A.C.F.

1981-01-01

The elaboration of a calculation model to determine safety areas, named Exclusion Zone and Low Population Zone for nuclear power plants, is dealt with. These areas are determined from a radioactive doses calculation for the population living around the NPP after occurence of a postulated ' Maximum Credible Accident' (MCA). The MCA is defined as an accident with complete loss of primary coolant and consequent fusion of a substantial portion of the reactor core. In the calculations carried out, data from NPP Angra I were used and the assumptions made were conservative, to be compatible with licensing requirements. Under the most pessimistic assumption (no filters) the values of 410m and 1000m were obtained for the Exclusion Zone and Low Population Zone radii, respectivily. (Author) [pt

The Fukushima Daiichi Accident. Technical Volume 4/5. Radiological Consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2015-08-01

This technical volume describes the consequences associated with radioactivity and radiation from the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (NPP) for people and the environment. A number of international organizations have already issued reports on the potential health and environmental consequences of the accident, notably the World Health Organization (WHO) and the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR). The intention of the assessments presented in this volume is to build on their work, using more recent data where available. Quantitative information arising from both personal and environmental monitoring has been provided by the Government of Japan. Section 4.1 provides the best estimates of the magnitude and form of radioactive releases during the accident to the atmosphere and directly into the surrounding sea. It also explains the movement of the discharged radionuclides through air and water and the eventual deposition of the atmospheric activity on land in Japan and other countries worldwide, as well as on the open oceans. The goal is to provide a consolidated repository of information on releases to, and levels of radionuclides in, the environment. Some of this information is used in the analyses in subsequent sections of this volume. Section 4.2 gives an overview of exposures to the main groups of emergency workers at the Fukushima Daiichi NPP, to groups of off-site workers and to members of the public. Where sufficient data are available, average effective dose and thyroid equivalent doses derived from personal measurements are compared with the results of previous assessments for specific locations, population groups and time periods. Section 4.3 summarizes relevant aspects of the system of radiation protection in place at the time of the accident. It includes an overview of the legislation and guidance used to implement the radiation protection framework in Japan. This section also provides a

Evaluation of methods to compare consequences from hazardous materials transportation accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rhoads, R.E.; Franklin, A.L.; Lavender, J.C.

1986-10-01

This report presents the results of a project to develop a framework for making meaningful comparisons of the consequences from transportation accidents involving hazardous materials. The project was conducted in two phases. In Phase I, methods that could potentially be used to develop the consequence comparisons for hazardous material transportation accidents were identified and reviewed. Potential improvements were identified and an evaluation of the improved methods was performed. Based on this evaluation, several methods were selected for detailed evaluation in Phase II of the project. The methods selected were location-dependent scenarios, figure of merit and risk assessment. This evaluation included application of the methods to a sample problem which compares the consequences of four representative hazardous materials - chlorine, propane, spent nuclear fuel and class A explosives. These materials were selected because they represented a broad class of hazardous material properties and consequence mechanisms. The sample case aplication relied extensively on consequence calculations performed in previous transportation risk assessment studies. A consultant was employed to assist in developing consequence models for explosives. The results of the detailed evaluation of the three consequence comparison methods indicates that methods are available to perform technically defensible comparisons of the consequences from a wide variety of hazardous materials. Location-dependent scenario and risk assessment methods are available now and the figure of merit method could be developed with additional effort. All of the methods require substantial effort to implement. Methods that would require substantially less effort were identified in the preliminary evaluation, but questions of technical accuracy preclude their application on a scale. These methods may have application to specific cases, however

Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis of the Food Chain Module in the COSYMA Package (invited paper)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brown, J.; Jones, J.A.

2000-01-01

This paper describes the uncertainty analysis of the food chain module of COSYMA and the uncertainty distributions on the input parameter values for the food chain model provided by the expert panels that were used for the analysis. Two expert panels were convened, covering the areas of soil and plant transfer processes and transfer to and through animals. The aggregated uncertainty distributions from the experts for the elicited variables were used in an uncertainty analysis of the food chain module of COSYMA. The main aim of the module analysis was to identify those parameters whose uncertainty makes large contributions to the overall uncertainty and so should be included in the overall analysis. (author)

A radiological accident consequence assessment system for Hong Kong

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wong, M.C.; Lam, H.K.

1993-01-01

An account is given of the Hong Kong Radiological Accident Consequence Assessment System which would be used to assess the potential consequences of an emergency situation involving atmospheric release of radioactive material. The system has the capability to acquire real-time meteorological information from the Observatory's network of automatic stations, synoptic stations in the nearby region as well as forecast data from numerical prediction models. The system makes use of these data to simulate the transport and dispersion of the released radioactive material. The effectiveness of protective action on the local population is also modeled. The system serves as a powerful aid in the protective action recommendation processes

Assessment of Radiological and Economic Consequences of a Hypothetical Accident for ETRR-2, Egypt Utilizing COSYMA Code

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tawfik, F.S.; Abdel-Aal, M.M.

2008-01-01

A comprehensive probabilistic study of an accident consequence assessment (ACA) for loss of coolant accident (LOCA) has accomplished to the second research reactor ETRR-2, located at Inshas Nuclear Research Center, Cairo, Egypt. PC-COSYMA, developed with the support of European Commission, has adopted to assess the radiological and economic consequences of a proposed accident. The consequences of the accident evaluated in case of early and late effects. The effective doses and doses in different organs carried out with and without countermeasures. The force mentioned calculations were required the following studies: the core inventory due to the hypothetical accident, the physical parameters of the source term, the hourly basis meteorological parameters for one complete year, and the population distribution around the plant. The hourly stability conditions and height of atmospheric boundary layers (ABL) of the concerned site were calculated. The results showed that, the nuclides that have short half-lives (few days) give the highest air and ground concentrations after the accident than the others. The area around the reactor requires the early and late countermeasures action after the accident especially in the downwind sectors. Economically, the costs of emergency plan are effectively high in case of applying countermeasures but countermeasures reduce the risk effects

Accident-generated radioactive particle source term development for consequence assessment of nuclear fuel cycle facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sutter, S.L.; Ballinger, M.Y.; Halverson, M.A.; Mishima, J.

1983-04-01

Consequences of nuclear fuel cycle facility accidents can be evaluated using aerosol release factors developed at Pacific Northwest Laboratory. These experimentally determined factors are compiled and consequence assessment methods are discussed. Release factors can be used to estimate the fraction of material initially made airborne by postulated accident scenarios. These release fractions in turn can be used in models to estimate downwind contamination levels as required for safety assessments of nuclear fuel cycle facilities. 20 references, 4 tables

Environmental consequences of the Chernobyl accident and their remediation: Twenty years of experience

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anspaugh, L.R.

2005-01-01

The explosion on 26 April 1986 at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant located just 100 km from the city of Kyiv in what was then the Soviet Union and now is Ukraine, and consequent ten days' reactor fire resulted in an unprecedented release of radiation and unpredicted adverse consequences both for the public and the environment. Indeed, the IAEA has characterized the event as the 'foremost nuclear catastrophe in human history' and the largest regional release of radionuclides into the atmosphere. Massive radioactive contamination forced the evacuation of more than 100,000 people from the affected region during 1986, and the relocation, after 1986, of another 200,000 from Belarus, the Russian Federation and Ukraine. Some five million people continue to live in areas contaminated by the accident and have to deal with its environmental, health, social and economic consequences. The national governments of the three affected countries, supported by international organizations, have undertaken costly efforts to remedy contamination, provide medical services and restore the region's social and economic well-being. The accident's consequences were not limited to the territories of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine but resulted in substantial transboundary atmospheric transfer and subsequent contamination of numerous European countries that also encountered problems of radiation protection of their populations, although to less extent than the three more affected countries. Although the accident occurred nearly two decades ago, controversy still surrounds the impact of the nuclear disaster. Therefore the IAEA, in cooperation with FAO, UNDP, UNEP, UNOCHA, UNSCEAR, WHO and The World Bank, as well as the competent authorities of Belarus, the Russian Federation and Ukraine, established the Chernobyl Forum in 2003. The mission of the Forum was - through a series of managerial and expert meetings to generate 'authoritative consensual statements' on the environmental consequences and

PERSPECTIVES ON A DOE CONSEQUENCE INPUTS FOR ACCIDENT ANALYSIS APPLICATIONS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Kula, K.R.; Thoman, D.C.; Lowrie, J.; Keller, A.

2008-01-01

Department of Energy (DOE) accident analysis for establishing the required control sets for nuclear facility safety applies a series of simplifying, reasonably conservative assumptions regarding inputs and methodologies for quantifying dose consequences. Most of the analytical practices are conservative, have a technical basis, and are based on regulatory precedent. However, others are judgmental and based on older understanding of phenomenology. The latter type of practices can be found in modeling hypothetical releases into the atmosphere and the subsequent exposure. Often the judgments applied are not based on current technical understanding but on work that has been superseded. The objective of this paper is to review the technical basis for the major inputs and assumptions in the quantification of consequence estimates supporting DOE accident analysis, and to identify those that could be reassessed in light of current understanding of atmospheric dispersion and radiological exposure. Inputs and assumptions of interest include: Meteorological data basis; Breathing rate; and Inhalation dose conversion factor. A simple dose calculation is provided to show the relative difference achieved by improving the technical bases

The modelling of off-site economic consequences of nuclear accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alonso, A.; Gallego, E.; Martin, J.E.

1991-01-01

The paper presents a computer model for the probabilistic assessment of the off-site economic risk derived from nuclear accidents. The model is called MECA (Model for Economic Consequence Assessment) and takes into consideration the direct costs caused, following an accident, by the different countermeasures adopted to prevent both the early and chronic exposure of the population to the radionuclides released, as well as the direct costs derived from health damage to the affected population. The model uses site-specific data that are organized in a socio-economic data base; detailed distributions of population, livestock census, agricultural production and farmland use, as well as of employment, salaries, and added value for different economic sectors are included. This data base has been completed for Spain, based on available official statistics. The new code, coupled to a general ACA code, provides capability to complete probabilistic risk assessments from the point of view of the off-site economic consequences, and also to perform cost-effectiveness analysis of the different countermeasures in the field of emergency preparedness

The application of the health effects models to the severe accident consequence analysis of nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang Ling; Yeung, M.R.

1998-01-01

Health Effect Model (HEM) is an important model used in the analysis of severe accidents consequence of the Nuclear Power Plants (NPP). The accuracy of HEM affects the reliability of the assessment for the accidents consequences, and furthermore, the effectiveness of the emergency countermeasures taken for the health protection of the public around the NPPs. Based on the NUREG/CR4214 series reports, the paper sets appropriate parameters for HEM by studying both early and late HEMs used for domestic NPP accident consequence analysis. In the study, the Guangdong Daya Bay NPP is chosen as an example study to calculate the health risk of the Hong Kong population caused by Daya Bay NPP

Fuel solution criticality accident studies with the SILENE reactor: phenomenology, consequences and simulated intervention

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barbry, F.

1984-01-01

After defining the content and the objectives of criticality accident studies, the SILENE reactor, a means of studying fuel solution criticality accidents, is presented. Information obtained from the CRAC and SILENE experimental programs are then presented; they concern power excursion phenomenology, radiological consequences, and finally guide-lines for current and future programs

Health effects model for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis. Part I. Introduction, integration, and summary. Part II. Scientific basis for health effects models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Evans, J.S.; Moeller, D.W.; Cooper, D.W.

1985-07-01

Analysis of the radiological health effects of nuclear power plant accidents requires models for predicting early health effects, cancers and benign thyroid nodules, and genetic effects. Since the publication of the Reactor Safety Study, additional information on radiological health effects has become available. This report summarizes the efforts of a program designed to provide revised health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence modeling. The new models for early effects address four causes of mortality and nine categories of morbidity. The models for early effects are based upon two parameter Weibull functions. They permit evaluation of the influence of dose protraction and address the issue of variation in radiosensitivity among the population. The piecewise-linear dose-response models used in the Reactor Safety Study to predict cancers and thyroid nodules have been replaced by linear and linear-quadratic models. The new models reflect the most recently reported results of the follow-up of the survivors of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and permit analysis of both morbidity and mortality. The new models for genetic effects allow prediction of genetic risks in each of the first five generations after an accident and include information on the relative severity of various classes of genetic effects. The uncertainty in modeloling radiological health risks is addressed by providing central, upper, and lower estimates of risks. An approach is outlined for summarizing the health consequences of nuclear power plant accidents. 298 refs., 9 figs., 49 tabs.

Health effects model for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis. Part I. Introduction, integration, and summary. Part II. Scientific basis for health effects models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Evans, J.S.; Moeller, D.W.; Cooper, D.W.

1985-07-01

Analysis of the radiological health effects of nuclear power plant accidents requires models for predicting early health effects, cancers and benign thyroid nodules, and genetic effects. Since the publication of the Reactor Safety Study, additional information on radiological health effects has become available. This report summarizes the efforts of a program designed to provide revised health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence modeling. The new models for early effects address four causes of mortality and nine categories of morbidity. The models for early effects are based upon two parameter Weibull functions. They permit evaluation of the influence of dose protraction and address the issue of variation in radiosensitivity among the population. The piecewise-linear dose-response models used in the Reactor Safety Study to predict cancers and thyroid nodules have been replaced by linear and linear-quadratic models. The new models reflect the most recently reported results of the follow-up of the survivors of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and permit analysis of both morbidity and mortality. The new models for genetic effects allow prediction of genetic risks in each of the first five generations after an accident and include information on the relative severity of various classes of genetic effects. The uncertainty in modeloling radiological health risks is addressed by providing central, upper, and lower estimates of risks. An approach is outlined for summarizing the health consequences of nuclear power plant accidents. 298 refs., 9 figs., 49 tabs

Economic consequences of major accidents in the industrial plants: The case of a nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fraix, J.

1989-09-01

These last years, newspapers head-lines have reported various accidents (Mexico City, Bhopal, Chernobyl, ...) which have drawn attention to the fact that the major technological risk is now a reality and that, undoubtedly, industrial decision-makers ought to integrate it into their preoccupations. In addition to the sometimes considerable human problems such accidents engender, their economic consequences may be such that they become significant on a national or even international scale. The aim of the present paper is to analyse these economic effects by using the particular context of a nuclear power plant. The author has deliberately limited his subject to the consequences of a major accident, that is to say a sudden event, theoretically unforeseen and beyond man's control. The qualification major means an accident of which the consequences extend far beyond the industrial plant itself. The direct and indirect economic consequences are analysed from the responsibility point of view as well as from the national and international community's point of view. A paragraph explains how the coverage of the costs can rely on the cooperation of a number of parties: responsible company, state, insurers, customers, etc. The study is broadly based on the experience resulting from the two major accidents which happened in the nuclear industry these last years (Three Mile Island in 1979 and Chernobyl in 1986) and makes use of more theoretical considerations, for example in the field of the economic evaluation of human life. (author). 58 refs, 2 figs, 12 tabs

Radioecological consequences of a potential accident during transport of spent nuclear fuel along an Arctic coastline

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iosjpe, M.; Reistad, O.; Amundsen, I.B.

2009-01-01

This article presents results pertaining to a risk assessment of the potential consequences of a hypothetical accident occurring during the transportation by ship of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) along an Arctic coastline. The findings are based on modelling of potential releases of radionuclides, radionuclide transport and uptake in the marine environment. Modelling work has been done using a revised box model developed at the Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority. Evaluation of the radioecological consequences of a potential accident in the southern part of the Norwegian Current has been made on the basis of calculated collective dose to man, individual doses for the critical group, concentrations of radionuclides in seafood and doses to marine organisms. The results of the calculations indicate a large variability in the investigated parameters above mentioned. On the basis of the calculated parameters the maximum total activity ('accepted accident activity') in the ship, when the parameters that describe the consequences after the examined potential accident are still in agreement with the recommendations and criterions for protection of the human population and the environment, has been evaluated

Economic consequences assessment for scenarios and actual accidents do the same methods apply

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brenot, J.

1991-01-01

Methods for estimating the economic consequences of major technological accidents, and their corresponding computer codes, are briefly presented with emphasis on the basic choices. When applied to hypothetic scenarios, those methods give results that are of interest for risk managers with a decision aiding perspective. Simultaneously the various costs, and the procedures for their estimation are reviewed for some actual accidents (Three Mile Island, Chernobyl,..). These costs are used in a perspective of litigation and compensation. The comparison of the methods used and cost estimates obtained for scenarios and actual accidents shows the points of convergence and discrepancies that are discussed

Radiological and dosimetric consequences in case of nuclear accident: taking them into account within the security approach and protection challenges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cogez, E.; Herviou, K.; Isnard, O.; Cessac, B.; Reales, N.; Quentric, E.; Quelo, D.

2010-01-01

This report first proposes a presentation of the 'defence in depth' concept which comprises five as much as possible independent levels: preventing operation anomalies and system failures, maintaining the installation within the authorized domain, controlling accidents within design hypotheses, preventing the degradation of accidental conditions and limiting consequences of severe accidents, limiting radiological consequences for population in case of important releases. Then, after a description of a release atmospheric dispersion and of its consequences, this report describes the consequences of two accident scenarios. The first accident is a failure of steam generator tubes, and the second a loss of primary coolant. It notably indicates the main released radionuclides, exposure levels at different distance for a given set of dispersion conditions

German offsite accident consequence model for nuclear facilities: further development and application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bayer, A.

1985-01-01

The German Offsite Accident Consequence Model - first applied in the German Risk Study for nuclear power plants with light water reactors - has been further developed with the improvement of several important submodels in the areas of atmospheric dispersion, shielding effects of houses, and the foodchains. To aid interpretation, the presentation of results has been extended with special emphasis on the presentation of the loss of life expectancy. The accident consequence model has been further developed for application to risk assessments for other nuclear facilities, e.g., the liquid metal fast breeder reactor (SNR-300) and the high temperature gas cooled reactor. Moreover the model have been further developed in the area of optimal countermeasure strategies (sheltering, evacuation, etc.) in the case of the Central European conditions. Preliminary considerations has been performed in connection with safety goals on the basis of doses

Consequences of Fukushima 11032011 - Radiological consequences from the nuclear accidents in Fukushima on 11 March 2011

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2011-12-01

On 11 March 2011 at 14.46 the strongest earthquake ever recorded in Japan struck the Pacific coast in front of Fukushima. The earthquake and the following tsunami damaged the nuclear power plants in Fukushima Dai-ichi to such an extent that the Japanese government declared the state of catastrophic accident with degree 7 according to the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES). At Fukushima Dai-ichi there were 6 boiling water reactors (BWR), a storage pool for spent fuel assemblies and a dry cask storage. 12 km apart at Fukushima Dai-ni there were 4 more BWR. At the moment of the earthquake the reactors 1 to 3 of Fukushima Dai-ichi, as well as the 4 reactors at Fukushima Dai-ni, were at full power, while the reactors 4 to 6 of Fukushima Dai-ichi were shut down for revision. From 12 March 2011 on, fairly large quantities of radioactive materials were released from Fukushima Dai-ichi reactors with meaningful consequences on the population in the near neighbourhood. The irradiation from the radioactivity bearing clouds, the ingestion and inhalation, and the deposit of radioactive materials on the ground threatened the population. The inhabitants of large areas had to be evacuated. Furthermore, radioactive materials contaminated the drinking water, the sea water and finally the plants and animals, i.e. the food chain of the people living there. The Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate (ENSI) continuously proceeded with the evaluation of the situation in Japan and a specialists' team made a detailed analysis of the accident, with emphasis on the human and organisational factors and on the lessons learned from this. The present report describes the present knowledge about the radiological consequences of the accident in Fukushima Dai-ichi on the population in the neighbourhood and on the staff at the power plant, until October 2011. First, the unrolling of the accident and its consequences on the plant site are analysed according to international

ILK statement on the consequences of the Chernobyl accident. Taking stock after twenty years

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-01-01

The Chernobyl reactor accident was the consequence of a reactor design which was not inherently safe, and of a lack of 'safety culture'. The RBMK-type reactor (a Russian graphite-moderated light water reactor design: reaktor bolshoi moshnosty kanalny=high-power channel reactor) had not been designed to a satisfactory safety level, and the operating staff were not informed on the weak spots in plant design. The combination of these factors caused the worst nuclear accident, completely destroying the reactor. The consequences may be seen as the product of two severe accidents superimposed upon each other: the explosion of the reactor, and core melt-down associated with an intense, persistent fire of the graphite moderator. The Statement contains analyses of these points: Release, Propagation and Deposition of Radioactive Materials; Protective Measures; Impact on the Environment and Agriculture; Assessment of Radiation Exposure; Health Impact; Psychological and Societal Impacts; Potential Residual Risks. (orig.)

A few seconds to have an accident, a long time to recover: consequences for road accident victims from the ESPARR cohort 2 years after the accident.

Science.gov (United States)

Tournier, Charlène; Charnay, Pierrette; Tardy, Hélène; Chossegros, Laetitia; Carnis, Laurent; Hours, Martine

2014-11-01

The aim of the present study was to describe the consequences of a road accident in adults, taking account of the type of road user, and to determine predictive factors for consequences at 2 years. Prospective follow-up study. The cohort was composed of 1168 victims of road traffic accidents, aged ≥16 years. Two years after the accident, 912 victims completed a self-administered questionnaire. Weighted logistic regression models were implemented to compare casualties still reporting impact related to the accident versus those reporting no residual impact. Five outcomes were analysed: unrecovered health status, impact on occupation or studies, on familial or affective life, on leisure or sport activities and but also the financial difficulties related to the accident. 46.1% of respondents were motorised four-wheel users, 29.6% motorised two-wheel (including quad) users, 13.3% pedestrians (including inline skate and push scooter users) and 11.1% cyclists. 53.3% reported unrecovered health status, 32.0% persisting impact on occupation or studies, 25.2% on familial or affective life, 46.9% on leisure or sport activities and 20.2% still had accident-related financial difficulties. Type of user, adjusted on age and gender, was linked to unrecovered health status and to impact on leisure or sport activities. When global severity (as measured by NISS) was integrated in the previous model, type of user was also associated with impact on occupation or studies. Type of user was further associated with impact on occupation or studies and on leisure or sport activities when global severity and the sociodemographic data obtained at inclusion were taken into account. It was not, however, related to any of the outcomes studied here, when the models focused on the injured body region. Finally, type of road user did not seem, on the various predictive models, to be related to financial difficulties due to the accident or to impact on familial or affective life. Overall, victims

Guidelines for calculation of atmospheric dispersion and radiological consequences of design basis reactor accidents - Severe accident calculation guidelines, EPR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martens, R.; Schmitz, B.M.; Horn, M.

1999-01-01

The activities carried out within the (reduced) project period (1. Sept. until 31. Dec. 1998) for coordinated harmonization between France and Germany, of guidelines for calculation of the radiological consequences of a severe reactor accident, are summarized. (orig./CB) [de

Nuclear installations abroad the accident risks and their potential consequences

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Turvey, F J [Radiological Protection Inst. of Ireland (Ireland)

1996-10-01

This paper endeavors to assess the threat to Ireland from severe accidents at civil nuclear installations. Among the various types of nuclear installations worldwide, reactors and reprocessing plants are considered to be the most threatening and so the paper focuses on these. The threat is assumed to be a function of the risk of severe accidents at the above types of installations and the probability of unfavourable weather conditions carrying the radioactive releases to Ireland. Although nuclear installations designed in eastern Europe and Asia are less safe than others, the greatest threat to Ireland arises from nearby installations in the UK. The difficulty of measuring the probabilities and consequences of severe nuclear accidents at nuclear installations in general is explained. In the case of the UK installations, this difficulty is overcome to some degree by using values of `tolerable` risk adopted by the national nuclear regulator to define the radiotoxic releases from nuclear accidents. These are used as input to atmospheric dispersion models in which unfavourable weather conditions for Ireland are assumed and radiation doses are calculated to members of the Irish public. No countermeasures, such as sheltering, are assumed. In the worst cast scenario no deaths would be expected in Ireland in the immediate aftermath of the accident however, an increase in cancers over a period of 25 years or so would be expected assuming present-day models for the effect of low level radiation are valid.

Nuclear installations abroad the accident risks and their potential consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Turvey, F.J.

1996-01-01

This paper endeavors to assess the threat to Ireland from severe accidents at civil nuclear installations. Among the various types of nuclear installations worldwide, reactors and reprocessing plants are considered to be the most threatening and so the paper focuses on these. The threat is assumed to be a function of the risk of severe accidents at the above types of installations and the probability of unfavourable weather conditions carrying the radioactive releases to Ireland. Although nuclear installations designed in eastern Europe and Asia are less safe than others, the greatest threat to Ireland arises from nearby installations in the UK. The difficulty of measuring the probabilities and consequences of severe nuclear accidents at nuclear installations in general is explained. In the case of the UK installations, this difficulty is overcome to some degree by using values of 'tolerable' risk adopted by the national nuclear regulator to define the radiotoxic releases from nuclear accidents. These are used as input to atmospheric dispersion models in which unfavourable weather conditions for Ireland are assumed and radiation doses are calculated to members of the Irish public. No countermeasures, such as sheltering, are assumed. In the worst cast scenario no deaths would be expected in Ireland in the immediate aftermath of the accident however, an increase in cancers over a period of 25 years or so would be expected assuming present-day models for the effect of low level radiation are valid

Predicting Consequences of Technological Disasters from Natural Hazard Events: Challenges and Opportunities Associated with Industrial Accident Data Sources

Science.gov (United States)

Wood, M.

2009-04-01

The increased focus on the possibility of technological accidents caused by natural events (Natech) is foreseen to continue for years to come. In this case, experts in prevention, mitigation and preparation activities associated with natural events will increasingly need to borrow data and expertise traditionally associated with the technological fields to carry out the work. An important question is how useful is the data for understanding consequences from such natech events. Data and case studies provided on major industrial accidents tend to focus on lessons learned for re-engineering the process. While consequence data are reported at least nominally in most reports, their precision, quality and completeness is often lacking. Consequences that are often or sometimes available but not provided can include severity and type of injuries, distance of victims from the source, exposure measurements, volume of the release, population in potentially affected zones, and weather conditions. Yet these are precisely the type of data that will aid natural hazard experts in land-use planning and emergency response activities when a Natech event may be foreseen. This work discusses the results of a study of consequence data from accidents involving toxic releases reported in the EU's MARS accident database. The study analysed the precision, quality and completeness of three categories of consequence data reported: the description of health effects, consequence assessment and chemical risk assessment factors, and emergency response information. This work reports on the findings from this study and discusses how natural hazards experts might interact with industrial accident experts to promote more consistent and accurate reporting of the data that will be useful in consequence-based activities.

Fukushima, one year after. First analyses of the accident and of its consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2012-01-01

This report proposes assessments and discussions of knowledge gathered by the IRSN during the first twelve months following the Fukushima accident to understand the status of the installations, to assess the releases, and to analyse and assess the consequences of the accident on workers and the impact on the population and environment. After a description of a boiling water reactor (general description, confinement barriers, safeguard systems), and of the earthquake, the authors describe and comment the consequences for several reactors (Fukushima-Dai-ini, Onagawa, Tokai, Higashidoru and Hamaoka). Then, they more precisely describe the Fukushima-Dai-ichi accident by distinguishing different periods (first two weeks, next three weeks, after the 17 of April). They analyse and comment the environmental impact in Japan (atmospheric dispersion of radioactive releases, ground contamination, impact of radioactive fallouts, contamination of the marine environment, and predictable impact on marine and ground ecosystems). They describe the actions undertaken to protect the population and in terms of post-accidental management, comment assessments of the dosimetric and health impact (workers and population exposure). They finally discuss the long range impact

Accident consequence calculations for project W-058 safetyanalysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Van Keuren, J.C.

1997-06-10

Accident consequence analyses have been performed for Project W-058, the Replacement Cross Site Transfer System. using the assumption and analysis techniques developed for the Tank Remediation Waste system Basis for Interim Operation. most potential accident involving the FISTS are bounded by the TWRS BIO analysis. However, the spray leak and pool leak scenarios require revised analyses since the RCSTS design utilizes larger diameter pipe and higher pressures than those analyzed in the TWRS BIO. Also the volume of diversion box and vent station are larger than that assumed for the valve pits in the TWRS BIO, which effects results of sprays or spills into the pits. the revised analysis for the spray leak is presented in Section 2, for the above ground spill in Section 3, for the presented in Section 2, for the above ground spill in Section 3, for the subsurface spill forming a pool in Section 4, and for the subsurface pool remaining subsurface in Section 5. The conclusion from these sections are summarized below.

A study on the weather sampling method for probabilistic consequence analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oh, Hae Cheol

1996-02-01

The main task of probabilistic accident consequence analysis model is to predict the radiological situation and to provide a reliable quantitative data base for making decisions on countermeasures. The magnitude of accident consequence is depended on the characteristic of the accident and the weather coincident. In probabilistic accident consequence analysis, it is necessary to repeat the atmospheric dispersion calculation with several hundreds of weather sequences to predict the full distribution of consequences which may occur following a postulated accident release. It is desirable to select a representative sample of weather sequences from a meteorological record which is typical of the area over which the released radionuclides will disperse and which spans a sufficiently long period. The selection process is done by means of sampling techniques from a full year of hourly weather data characteristic of the plant site. In this study, the proposed Weighted importance sampling method selects proportional to the each bin size to closely approximate the true frequency distribution of weather condition at the site. The Weighted importance sampling method results in substantially less sampling uncertainty than the previous technique. The proposed technique can result in improve confidence in risk estimates

Techniques and decision making in the assessment of off-site consequences of an accident in a nuclear facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1987-01-01

This Guide is intended to complement the IAEA's existing technical guidance on emergency planning and preparedness by providing information and practical guidance related to the assessment of off-site consequences of an accident in a nuclear or radioactive materials installation and to the decision making process in implementing protective measures. This Guide contains information on emergency response philosophy, fundamental factors affecting accident consequences, principles of accident assessment, data acquisition and handling, systems, techniques and decision making principles. Many of the accident assessment concepts presented are considerably more advanced than some of those that now pertain in most countries. They could, if properly interpreted, developed and applied, significantly improve emergency response in the early and intermediate phases of an accident. Furthermore, they are considered to be applicable to a broad range of serious nuclear accidents and radiological emergencies. The extent of their application is governed by both the scale of the accident and by the availability of preplanned resources for accident assessment and emergency response. 68 refs, 28 figs, 14 tabs

Aspects of risk analysis application to estimation of nuclear accidents and tests consequences and intervention management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Demin, V.F.; Hedemann-Jensen, P.; Rolevich, I.V.; Schneider, T.S.; Sobolev, B.G.

1996-01-01

For assessment of accident consequences and a post-accident management a risk analysis methodology and data bank (BARD) with allowance for radiation and non-radiation risk causes should be developed and used. Aspects of these needs and developments are considered. Some illustrative results of health risk estimation made with BARD for the Bryansk region territory with relatively high radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl accident are presented

Primary disability of the Chernobyl Accident consequences liquidators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zubritskij, M.K.; Plakhotya, L.P.; Kalinina, T.V.; Zhilinskaya, E.I.

1994-01-01

The structure of courses of the primary invalidism of the Chernobyl accident consequences liquidators is studies. The main reasons of the loss of a capacity for work are blood circulation diseases (41.9%), neoplasms (19.9%), diseases of the nervous system and sense organs (9.7%), mental disorders (5.9%) and endocrine diseases (5.5%). The invalids distribution in the different regions and in different age groups according to the disease forms is analysed. The average durations of the diseases resulting in the primary invalidism are about 2.8 years. In average the illnesses began in the 3.1 years. 6 refs

The accident at the Chernobyl' nuclear power plant and its consequences. Pt. 1. General material

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1986-01-01

The report contains a presentation of the Chernobyl' nuclear power station and of the RBMK-1000 reactor, including its principal physical characteristics, the safety systems and a description of the site and of the surrounding region. After a chronological account of the events which led to the accident and an analysis of the accident using a mathematical model it is concluded that the prime cause of the accident was an extremely improbable combination of violations of instructions and operating rules committed by the staff of the unit. Technical and organizational measures for improving the safety of nuclear power plants with RBMK reactors have been taken. A detailed description of the actions taken to contain the accident and to alleviate its consequences is given and includes the fire fighting at the nuclear power station, the evaluation of the state of the fuel after the accident, the actions taken to limit the consequences of the accident in the core, the measures taken at units 1, 2 and 3 of the nuclear power station, the monitoring and diagnosis of the state of the damaged unit, the decontamination of the site and of the 30 km zone and the long-term entombment of the damaged unit. The measures taken for environmental radioactive contamination monitoring, starting by the assessment of the quantity, composition and dynamics of fission products release from the damaged reactor are described, including the main characteristics of the radioactive contamination of the atmosphere and of the ground, the possible ecological consequences and data on the exposure of plant and emergency service personnel and of the population in the 30 km zone around the plant. The last part of the report presents some recommendations for improving nuclear power safety, including scientific, technical and organizational aspects and international measures. Finally, an overview of the development of nuclear power in the USSR is given

Economic consequences of the Chernobyl accident in Norway in 1986 and 1987

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tveten, U.

1988-01-01

In the accident consequence assessment (ACA) area there is extensive cooperation between the Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden), performed within the Nordic Safety Program, and partially funded by the Nordic Council of Ministers, via the Nordic Liaison Committee for Atomic Energy. One of the 17 projects in the ACA-related program area is concerned with the economic consequences of the Chernobyl accident in Finland, Norway, and Sweden. This paper is limited to describing conditions in Norway. There are areas in Norway where the Chernobyl fallout is >100 kBq/m 2 , and the total amount of radiocesium deposited over Norway is estimated by the National Institute for Radiation Hygiene to be 6% of the radiocesium released from the reactor. The areas where ground concentrations are highest are mostly in sparsely populated mountain areas. These areas are, however, important in connection with several nutritional pathways, notably, sheep, goats, reindeer, and freshwater fish. The purpose of this paper is to summarize information on mitigating actions and economic consequences of the deposited radioactive materials to Norwegian agriculture in the 1986-87 and 1987-88 slaughtering periods

Total Monte-Carlo method applied to the assessment of uncertainties in a reactivity-initiated accident

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cruz, D.F. da; Rochman, D.; Koning, A.J. [Nuclear Research and Consultancy Group NRG, Petten (Netherlands)

2014-07-01

The Total Monte-Carlo (TMC) method has been applied extensively since 2008 to propagate the uncertainties in nuclear data for reactor parameters and fuel inventory, and for several types of advanced nuclear systems. The analyses have been performed considering different levels of complexity, ranging from a single fuel rod to a full 3-D reactor core at steady-state. The current work applies the TMC method for a full 3-D pressurized water reactor core model under steady-state and transient conditions, considering thermal-hydraulic feedback. As a transient scenario the study focused on a reactivity-initiated accident, namely a control rod ejection accident initiated by a mechanical failure of the control rod drive mechanism. The uncertainties on the main reactor parameters due to variations in nuclear data for the isotopes {sup 235},{sup 238}U, {sup 239}Pu and thermal scattering data for {sup 1}H in water were quantified. (author)

Critical analysis of accident scenario and consequences modelling applied to light-water reactor power plants for accident categories beyond the design basis accident (DBA)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brofferio, C.; Cagnetti, P.; Ferrara, V.; Manilia, E.; Pietrangeli, G.; Sennis, C.

1985-01-01

A critical analysis and sensitivity study of the modelling of accident scenarios and environmental consequences are presented, for light-water reactor accident categories beyond the standard design-basis-accident category. The first chapter, on ''source term'' deals with the release of fission products from a damaged core inventory and their migration within the primary circuit and the reactor containment. Particular attention is given to the influence of engineering safeguards intervention and of the chemical forms of the released fission products. The second chapter deals with their release to the atmosphere, transport and wet or dry deposition, outlining relevant partial effects and confronting short-duration or prolonged releases. The third chapter presents a variability analysis, for environmental contamination levels, for two extreme hypothetical scenarios, evidencing the importance of plume rise. A numerical plume rise model is outlined

[Health-related consequences of obstructive sleep apnea: daytime sleepiness, accident risk and legal aspects].

Science.gov (United States)

Orth, M; Kotterba, S

2012-04-01

Daytime sleepiness for any reason leads to impairment of daytime performance and an increased accident rate. The consequences are an increase of illness- and accident-related costs for the health system. Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is one of the major reasons for increased daytime sleepiness, especially in professional drivers. The accident frequency in OSA can be significantly reduced by adequate continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) therapy. Up till now there are no uniform legal regulations about the handling of OSAS patients or patients with daytime sleepiness due to other diseases as far as driving ability is concerned.

Consequences in Norway after a hypothetical accident at Sellafield - Predicted impacts on the environment.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Thoerring, H.; Liland, A.

2010-12-15

This report deals with the environmental consequences in Norway after a hypothetical accident at Sellafield. The investigation is limited to the terrestrial environment, and focus on animals grazing natural pastures, plus wild berries and fungi. Only 137Cs is considered. The predicted consequences are severe, in particular for mutton and goat milk production. (Author)

Consequences in Norway after a hypothetical accident at Sellafield - Predicted impacts on the environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thoerring, H.; Liland, A.

2010-12-01

This report deals with the environmental consequences in Norway after a hypothetical accident at Sellafield. The investigation is limited to the terrestrial environment, and focus on animals grazing natural pastures, plus wild berries and fungi. Only 137Cs is considered. The predicted consequences are severe - in particular for mutton and goat milk production. (Author)

Accident on the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. Getting over the consequences and lessons learned

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nosovskij, A.V.; Vasil'chenko, V.N.; Klyuchnikov, A.A.; Prister, B.S.

2006-01-01

The book is devoted to the 20 anniversary of the accident on the 4th Power Unit of the Chernobyl NPP. The power plant construction history, accident reasons, its consequences, the measures on its liquidation are represented. The current state of activity on the Chernobyl power unit decommission, the 'Shelter' object conversion into the ecologically safe system is described. The future of the Chernobyl NPP site and disposal zone is discussed

Radiation accidents with global consequences for the population. Problems of risk evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vasilev, G.; Doncheva, B.; Stoilova, S.; Miloslavov, V.; Tsenova, T.; Novkirishki, V.

1987-01-01

The theoretical problems concerning the delayed impacts as a result of considerable radiation accidents are discussed. The attention is paid to the maximum individual doses which are relatively low but many people are affected. In these cases, the risk evaluation is based on the cancerogenesis, genetic and teratogenetic consequences among the concerned population. The main equation of the linear threshold-free model 'dose effect' is subjected to analysis. Considering the real prognostic importance of this equation the following recommendations are made: further observation on epidemic diseases; investigation of teratogenetic consequences in connection with the radiation doses obtained during the antenatal development; radiation-hygienic standardization of the oral absorbtion of radionuclides for short and long periods of time; effective equivalent dose determination according to the irradiated organ or tissue (mammary glands, lungs, red marrow, gonads, skin); necessity of national system for in time announcement of radiation accidents, as well as suitable control of the internal and the external irradiation

Structure shielding from cloud and fallout gamma ray sources for assessing the consequences of reactor accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burson, Z.G.; Profio, A.E.

1975-12-01

Radiation shielding provided by transportation vehicles and structures typical of where people live and work were estimated for cloud and fallout gamma-ray sources resulting from a hypothetical reactor accident. Dose reduction factors are recommended for a variety of situations for realistically assessing the consequences of reactor accidents

Environmental consequences of releases from nuclear accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tveten, U.

1990-03-01

The report presents the results of a four-year Nordic cooperation project (AKTU-200). The results have impact upon many facets of accident consequence assessment, ranging from new computational tools to recommendations concerning food preparation methods to be utilized in a fallout situation. Some of the subprojects have approached areas where little or no research has been performed previously, like the project on winter conditions, the project on the physico/chemical form of radionuclides in the Chernobyl fallout, and the project on resuspension. The conclusion from the first of these projects is that the impact of an accident or fallout situation occuring during winter may be considerable smaller than in a similar situation during summer conditions. The most important conclusion from the second of these projects is that bioavailability of radiocesium in soil is significantly lower than that of radiocesium in plant material taken up via the roots. In the third project is was found that the resuspension factor is several orders of magnitude lower than the values traditionally cited, and that resuspension is a local phenomenon in a majority of weather conditions. The development of large-scale testing of mitigating actions to prevent uptake of radiocesium in animals in a fallout situation is also one of the projects where new ground has been sucessfully broken. 189 refs., 89 figs., 55 tabs

The usefulness of time-dependent reactor accident consequence modelling for emergency response planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paretzke, H.G.; Jacob, P.; Mueller, H.; Proehl, G.

1989-01-01

After major releases of radionuclides into the atmosphere fast reaction of authorities will be necessary to inform the public of potential consequences and to consider and optimize mitigating actions. These activities require availability of well designed computer models, adequate and fast measurements and prior training of responsible persons. The quantitative assessment models should be capable of taking into account of actual atmospheric dispersion conditions, actual deposition situation (dry, rain, snow, fog), seasonal status of the agriculture, food processing and distribution pathways, etc. In this paper the usefulness of such models will be discussed, their limitations, the relative importance of exposure pathways and a selection of important methods to decrease the activity in food products after an accident. Real-time reactor accident consequence models should be considered as a condition sine qua non for responsible use of nuclear power for electricity production

Assessment Of Source Term And Radiological Consequences For Design Basis Accident And Beyond Design Basis Accident Of The Dalat Nuclear Research Reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luong Ba Vien; Le Vinh Vinh; Huynh Ton Nghiem; Nguyen Kien Cuong; Tran Tri Vien

2011-01-01

The paper presents results of the assessment of source terms and radiological consequences for the Design Basis Accident (DBA) and Beyond Design Basis Accident (BDBA) of the Dalat Nuclear Research Reactor. The dropping of one fuel assembly during fuel handling operation leading to the failure of fuel cladding and the release of fission products into the environment was selected as a DBA for the analysis. For the BDBA, the introduction of a step positive reactivity due to the falling of a heavy block from the rotating bridge crane in the reactor hall onto a part of the platform where are disposed the control rod drives is postulated. The result of the radiological consequence analyses shows that doses to members of the public are below annual dose limit for both DBA and BDBA events. However, doses from exposure to operating staff and experimenters working inside the reactor hall are predicted to be very high in case of BDBA and therefore the protective actions should be taken when the accident occurs. (author)

Doppler reactivity uncertainties and their effect upon a hypothetical LOF accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Malloy, D.J.

1976-01-01

The statistical uncertainties and the major methodological errors which contribute to the Doppler feedback uncertainty were reviewed and investigated. Improved estimates for the magnitudes of each type of uncertainty were established. The generally applied reactivity feedback methodology has been extended by explicitly treating the coupling effect which exists between the various feedback components. The improved methodology was specifically applied to the coupling of Doppler and sodium void reactivities. In addition, the description of the temperature dependence of the Doppler feedback has been improved by the use of a two-constant formula on a global and regional basis. Feedback and coupling coefficients are presented as a first comparison of the improved and the currently applied methods. Further, the energy release which results from hypothetical disassembly accidents was simulated with a special response surface in the parametric safety evaluation code PARSEC. The impact of the improved feedback methodology and of Doppler coefficient uncertainties was illustrated by the usual parametric relationship between available work-energy and the Doppler coefficient. The work-energy was calculated with the VENUS-II disassembly code and was represented as a response surface in PARSEC. Additionally, the probability distribution for available work-energy, which results from the statistical uncertainty of the Doppler coefficient, was calculated for the current and the improved feedback methodology. The improved feedback description yielded about a 16 percent higher average value for the work-energy. A substantially larger increase is found on the high-yield end of the spectrum: the probability for work-energy above 500 MJ was increased by about a factor of ten

The radiological consequences of degraded core accidents for the Sizewell PWR The impact of adopting revised frequencies of occurrence

CERN Document Server

Kelly, G N

1983-01-01

The radiological consequences of degraded core accidents postulated for the Sizewell PWR were assessed in an earlier study and the results published in NRPB-R137. Further analyses have since been made by the Central Electricity Generating Board (CEGB) of degraded core accidents which have led to a revision of their predicted frequencies of occurrence. The implications of these revised frequencies, in terms of the risk to the public from degraded core accidents, are evaluated in this report. Increases, by factors typically within the range of about 1.5 to 7, are predicted in the consequences, compared with those estimated in the earlier study. However, the predicted risk from degraded core accidents, despite these increases, remains exceedingly small.

Impact of rainstorm and runoff modeling on predicted consequences of atmospheric releases from nuclear reactor accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ritchie, L.T.; Brown, W.D.; Wayland, J.R.

1980-05-01

A general temperate latitude cyclonic rainstorm model is presented which describes the effects of washout and runoff on consequences of atmospheric releases of radioactive material from potential nuclear reactor accidents. The model treats the temporal and spatial variability of precipitation processes. Predicted air and ground concentrations of radioactive material and resultant health consequences for the new model are compared to those of the original WASH-1400 model under invariant meteorological conditions and for realistic weather events using observed meteorological sequences. For a specific accident under a particular set of meteorological conditions, the new model can give significantly different results from those predicted by the WASH-1400 model, but the aggregate consequences produced for a large number of meteorological conditions are similar

Radiological consequences of accidents during disposal of spent nuclear fuel in a deep borehole

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grundfelt, Bertil [Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden)

2013-07-15

In this report, an analysis of the radiological consequences of potential accidents during disposal of spent nuclear fuel in deep boreholes is presented. The results presented should be seen as coarse estimates of possible radiological consequences of a canister being stuck in a borehole during disposal rather than being the results of a full safety analysis. In the concept for deep borehole disposal of spent nuclear fuel developed by Sandia National Laboratories, the fuel is assumed to be encapsulated in mild steel canisters and stacked between 3 and 5 km depth in boreholes that are cased with perforated mild steel casing tubes. The canisters are joined together by couplings to form strings of 40 canisters and lowered into the borehole. When a canister string has been emplaced in the borehole, a bridge plug is installed above the string and a 10 metres long concrete plug is cast on top of the bridge plug creating a floor for the disposal of the next sting. In total 10 canister strings, in all 400 canisters, are assumed to be disposed of at between 3 and 5 kilometres depth in one borehole. An analysis of potential accidents during the disposal operations shows that the potentially worst accident would be that a canister string is stuck above the disposal zone of a borehole and cannot be retrieved. In such a case, the borehole may have to be sealed in the best possible way and abandoned. The consequences of this could be that one or more leaking canisters are stuck in a borehole section with mobile groundwater. In the case of a leaking canister being stuck in a borehole section with mobile groundwater, the potential radiological consequences are likely to be dominated by the release of the so-called Instant Release Fraction (IRF) of the radionuclide inventory, i.e. the fraction of the radionuclides that as a consequence of the in-core conditions are present in the annulus between the fuel pellets and the cladding or on the grain boundaries of the UO{sub 2} matrix

Radiological consequences of accidents during disposal of spent nuclear fuel in a deep borehole

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grundfelt, Bertil

2013-07-01

In this report, an analysis of the radiological consequences of potential accidents during disposal of spent nuclear fuel in deep boreholes is presented. The results presented should be seen as coarse estimates of possible radiological consequences of a canister being stuck in a borehole during disposal rather than being the results of a full safety analysis. In the concept for deep borehole disposal of spent nuclear fuel developed by Sandia National Laboratories, the fuel is assumed to be encapsulated in mild steel canisters and stacked between 3 and 5 km depth in boreholes that are cased with perforated mild steel casing tubes. The canisters are joined together by couplings to form strings of 40 canisters and lowered into the borehole. When a canister string has been emplaced in the borehole, a bridge plug is installed above the string and a 10 metres long concrete plug is cast on top of the bridge plug creating a floor for the disposal of the next sting. In total 10 canister strings, in all 400 canisters, are assumed to be disposed of at between 3 and 5 kilometres depth in one borehole. An analysis of potential accidents during the disposal operations shows that the potentially worst accident would be that a canister string is stuck above the disposal zone of a borehole and cannot be retrieved. In such a case, the borehole may have to be sealed in the best possible way and abandoned. The consequences of this could be that one or more leaking canisters are stuck in a borehole section with mobile groundwater. In the case of a leaking canister being stuck in a borehole section with mobile groundwater, the potential radiological consequences are likely to be dominated by the release of the so-called Instant Release Fraction (IRF) of the radionuclide inventory, i.e. the fraction of the radionuclides that as a consequence of the in-core conditions are present in the annulus between the fuel pellets and the cladding or on the grain boundaries of the UO 2 matrix. The

RASCAL [Radiological Assessment System for Consequence AnaLysis]: A screening model for estimating doses from radiological accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sjoreen, A.L.; Athey, G.F.; Sakenas, C.A.; McKenna, T.J.

1988-01-01

The Radiological Assessment System for Consequence AnaLysis (RASCAL) is a new MS-DOS-based dose assessment model which has been written for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission for use during response to radiological emergencies. RASCAL is designed to provide crude estimates of the effects of an accident while the accident is in progress and only limited information is available. It has been designed to be very simple to use and to run quickly. RASCAL is unique in that it estimates the source term based on fundamental plant conditions and does not rely solely on release rate estimation (e.g., Ci/sec of I-131). Therefore, it can estimate consequences of accidents involving unmonitored pathways or projected failures. RASCAL will replace the older model, IRDAM. 6 refs

Application of uncertainty analysis method for calculations of accident conditions for RP AES-2006

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zajtsev, S.I.; Bykov, M.A.; Zakutaev, M.O.; Siryapin, V.N.; Petkevich, I.G.; Siryapin, N.V.; Borisov, S.L.; Kozlachkov, A.N.

2015-01-01

An analysis of some accidents using the uncertainly assessment methods is given. The list of the variable parameters incorporated the model parameters of the computer codes, initial and boundary conditions of reactor plant, neutronics. On the basis of the performed calculations of the accident conditions using the statistical method, errors assessment is presented in the determination of the main parameters comparable with the acceptance criteria. It was shown that in the investigated accidents the values of the calculated parameters with account for their error obtained from TRAP-KS and KORSAR/GP Codes do not exceed the established acceptance criteria. Besides, these values do not exceed the values obtained in the conservative calculations. A possibility in principle of the actual application of the method of estimation of uncertainty was shown to justify the safety of WWER AES-2006 using the thermal-physical codes KORSAR/GP and TRAP-KS, PANDA and SUSA programs [ru

A parametric study of MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System 2 (MACCS2) Input Values for the Predicted Health Effect

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, So Ra; Min, Byung Il; Park, Ki Hyun; Yang, Byung Mo; Suh, Kyung Suk

2016-01-01

The MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System 2, MACCS2, has been the most widely used through the world among the off-site consequence analysis codes. MACCS2 code is used to estimate the radionuclide concentrations, radiological doses, health effects, and economic consequences that could result from the hypothetical nuclear accidents. Most of the MACCS model parameter values are defined by the user and those input parameters can make a significant impact on the output. A limited parametric study was performed to identify the relative importance of the values of each input parameters in determining the predicted early and latent health effects in MACCS2. These results would not be applicable to every case of the nuclear accidents, because only the limited calculation was performed with Kori-specific data. The endpoints of the assessment were early- and latent cancer-risk in the exposed population, therefore it might produce the different results with the parametric studies for other endpoints, such as contamination level, absorbed dose, and economic cost. Accident consequence assessment is important for decision making to minimize the health effect from radiation exposure, accordingly the sufficient parametric studies are required for the various endpoints and input parameters in further research

Uncertainties propagation in the framework of a Rod Ejection Accident modeling based on a multi-physics approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Le Pallec, J. C.; Crouzet, N.; Bergeaud, V.; Delavaud, C. [CEA/DEN/DM2S, CEA/Saclay, 91191 Gif sur Yvette Cedex (France)

2012-07-01

The control of uncertainties in the field of reactor physics and their propagation in best-estimate modeling are a major issue in safety analysis. In this framework, the CEA develops a methodology to perform multi-physics simulations including uncertainties analysis. The present paper aims to present and apply this methodology for the analysis of an accidental situation such as REA (Rod Ejection Accident). This accident is characterized by a strong interaction between the different areas of the reactor physics (neutronic, fuel thermal and thermal hydraulic). The modeling is performed with CRONOS2 code. The uncertainties analysis has been conducted with the URANIE platform developed by the CEA: For each identified response from the modeling (output) and considering a set of key parameters with their uncertainties (input), a surrogate model in the form of a neural network has been produced. The set of neural networks is then used to carry out a sensitivity analysis which consists on a global variance analysis with the determination of the Sobol indices for all responses. The sensitivity indices are obtained for the input parameters by an approach based on the use of polynomial chaos. The present exercise helped to develop a methodological flow scheme, to consolidate the use of URANIE tool in the framework of parallel calculations. Finally, the use of polynomial chaos allowed computing high order sensitivity indices and thus highlighting and classifying the influence of identified uncertainties on each response of the analysis (single and interaction effects). (authors)

Final report of the accident phenomenology and consequence (APAC) methodology evaluation. Spills Working Group

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brereton, S.; Shinn, J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States); Hesse, D [Battelle Columbus Labs., OH (United States); Kaninich, D. [Westinghouse Savannah River Co., Aiken, SC (United States); Lazaro, M. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States); Mubayi, V. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)

1997-08-01

The Spills Working Group was one of six working groups established under the Accident Phenomenology and Consequence (APAC) methodology evaluation program. The objectives of APAC were to assess methodologies available in the accident phenomenology and consequence analysis area and to evaluate their adequacy for use in preparing DOE facility safety basis documentation, such as Basis for Interim Operation (BIO), Justification for Continued Operation (JCO), Hazard Analysis Documents, and Safety Analysis Reports (SARs). Additional objectives of APAC were to identify development needs and to define standard practices to be followed in the analyses supporting facility safety basis documentation. The Spills Working Group focused on methodologies for estimating four types of spill source terms: liquid chemical spills and evaporation, pressurized liquid/gas releases, solid spills and resuspension/sublimation, and resuspension of particulate matter from liquid spills.

Consequences of tritium release to water pathways from postulated accidents in a DOE production reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Kula, K.R.; Olson, R.L.; Hamby, D.M.

1991-01-01

A full-scale PRA of a DOE production reactor has been completed that considers full release of tritium as part of the severe accident source term. Two classes of postulated reactor accidents, a loss-of-moderator pumping accident and a loss-of-coolant accident, are used to bound the expected dose consequence from liquid pathway release. Population doses from the radiological release associated with the two accidents are compared for aqueous discharge and atmospheric release modes. The expectation values of the distribution of possible values for the societal effective dose equivalent to the general public, given a tritium release to the atmosphere, is 2.8 person-Sv/PBq (9.9 x 10 -3 person-rem/Ci). The general public drinking water dose to downstream water consumers is 6.5 x 10 -2 person-Sv/Pbq (2.4 x 10 -4 person-rem/Ci) for aqueous releases to the surface streams eventually reaching the Savannah River. Negligible doses are calculated for freshwater fish and saltwater invertebrate consumption, irrigation, and recreational use of the river, given that an aqueous release is assumed to occur. Relative to the balance of fission products released in a hypothetical severe accident, the tritium-related dose is small. This study suggests that application of regional models (1610 km radius) will indicate larger dose consequences from short-term tritium release to the atmosphere than from comparable tritium source terms to water pathways. However, the water pathways assessment is clearly site-specific, and the overall aqueous dose will be dependent on downstream receptor populations and uses of the river

Accident consequence calculations for project W-058 safety analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Keuren, J.C.

1997-01-01

Accident consequence analyses have been performed for Project W-058, the Replacement Cross Site Transfer System. using the assumption and analysis techniques developed for the Tank Remediation Waste system Basis for Interim Operation. most potential accident involving the FISTS are bounded by the TWRS BIO analysis. However, the spray leak and pool leak scenarios require revised analyses since the RCSTS design utilizes larger diameter pipe and higher pressures than those analyzed in the TWRS BIO. Also the volume of diversion box and vent station are larger than that assumed for the valve pits in the TWRS BIO, which effects results of sprays or spills into the pits. the revised analysis for the spray leak is presented in Section 2, for the above ground spill in Section 3, for the presented in Section 2, for the above ground spill in Section 3, for the subsurface spill forming a pool in Section 4, and for the subsurface pool remaining subsurface in Section 5. The conclusion from these sections are summarized below

Probabilistic Assessment of Severe Accident Consequence in West Bangka

Science.gov (United States)

Sunarko; Su'ud, Zaki

2017-07-01

Probabilistic dose assessment for severe accident condition is performed for West Bangka area. Source-term from WASH-1400 reactor analysis is used as a conservative release scenario for 1000 MWe PWR. Seven groups of isotopes are used in the simulation based on core inventory and release fraction. Population distribution for Muntok district and the area within a 100 km radius is obtained from 2014 data. Meteorological data is provided through cyclic sampling from a database containing two-year site-specific hourly records in 2014-2015 periods. PC-COSYMA segmented plume dispersion code is used to investigate the assumed the consequence of the accident scenario. The result indicates that early or deterministic effect is important for areas close the release point while long-term or stochastic effect is related to population distribution and covers area of up to 100 km from the release point. The mean annual expected values for early mortality and late mortality for the population within 100 km radius from Muntok site are 2.38×10-4 yr -1 and 1.33×10-3 yr -1 respectively.

Prevention of radiation accidents and their consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khiski, J.

1976-01-01

Clearing out reasons for nuclear accidents enables to take effective measures to minimize them. The number of accidents in 1957 - 1974 is given. The frequency of accidents at various working places, while operating with various radioisotopes is presented. The analysis of accidents and the confirmation of these estimates can lead to the generalization of data and to the formulation of preventive measures [ru

Towards more realistic assessment of reactor accident consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tveten, U.

1985-07-01

The purpose of the Nordic project described in the report has been to improve the data base used in accident consequence assessments, and also to improve the assessment models in use in the Nordic countries. The following data related questions have been dealt with: Terrestrial transfer factors, the freshwater pathways, comparison of dynamic and static calculation models for fish, and the shielding effect of buildings. The work on terrestrial transfer factors has resulted in the generation of a Nordic fallout data bank. The following experimental investigations have been performed: Natural decontamination of roofs under summer and winter conditions, deposition in urban areas, and the filter effect of buildings. Various aspects of mitigating actions have also been examined

Social aspects in evaluation of health status of subjects who participated in liquidation of radiation accident consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tukov, A.R.; Kleev, N.A.; Shafranskij, I.L.

2000-01-01

The morbidity rate of the Russian atomic industry workers, the liquidators of ChNPP accident consequences and their future life span shorting with an account of their social status are evaluated. Tentative and standard morbidity values were calculated with an account of various social groups of the liquidators. Intensive values of the man-year losses were used in the methodology for evaluating the vital potential losses. The study results indicated considerable morbidity difference in certain diseases by the persons of various social groups, who took part in liquidation of the ChNPP accident consequences [ru

Identification and evaluation of accident sequences in nuclear power reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amendola, A.; Capobianchi, S.; Mancini, G.; Olivi, L.; Volta, G.; Reina, G.

1981-01-01

Probabilistic analysis techniques are being more and more used for the evaluation of accident progression in nuclear power plants, especially after the issue of the Reactor Safety Study (Report WASH-1400). This study and subsequent discussions have indicated the necessity of better investigating some major items, namely: adequate data base for the probabilistic evaluations; completeness of the analysis with respect both to accident initiation and behaviour; adequate treatment of uncertainties on the physical and operational parameters governing the accident behaviour. Furthermore, recent occurrences have stressed the importance of the operational aspects of reactor safety, such as plant-specific identification of possible occurrences, their prompt recognition, on-line prediction of subsequent developments and actions to be taken. The paper reviews the contributions in progress at JRC-Ispra to all these aspects, and specifically reports on the following: (1) The set-up of a European Reliability Data System for the acquisition and organisation of operational data of LWRs in the European Community. (2) The development of more complete and realistic models of systems. This work includes multistate static models of components and systems with a view to automatic fault-tree construction and dynamic models for accident sequence identification. The dynamic modelling approach ESCS (Event Sequence and Consequences Spectrum), shown in detail with an example, represents a step forward with respect to event-tree technique and opens new possibilities in dealing with human factors and on-line diagnosis problems. (3) The development of RSM (Response Surface Methodology) for the analysis of uncertainty propagations in consequence and in probability of accident chains. (author)

An assessment of the radiological consequences of accidents in research reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferreira, N.L.D.

1992-01-01

This work analyses the radiological consequences of accidents in two types of research reactors: a 5 MWt open pool reactor and a 50 MWt PWR reactor. Two siting cases have been considered: the reactor located near to a large population center and sited in a rural area. The influence of several factors such as source term, meteorological conditions and population distribution have been considered in the present analysis. (author)

Accidents, 'Black Swans' and risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Luxat, J.C., E-mail: luxatj@mcmaster.ca [McMaster Univ., Dept. of Engineering Physics, Hamilton, Ontario (Canada)

2013-07-01

Major accidents and natural disasters with severe consequences have occurred in all sectors of industrial activity with relatively high frequency. The severe consequences of concern involve either significant loss of life or major economic loss, or both loss of life and economic loss. Such events have in the last two years often been referred to as 'Black Swan' events following publication of a best-selling book. The events demonstrate limits to the application of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) that arise from the underlying unquantifiable uncertainty associated with the estimation of the frequency of occurrence of such events. An approach is proposed in this paper that, consistent with the concept of defense in depth employed by the nuclear industry, augments probabilistic risk assessment with a methodology based upon 'threat -risk assessment'. This approach shifts these very low frequency, high uncertainty, and high consequence 'Black Swan' events out of the probabilistic risk assessment domain and into a deterministic emergency response assessment domain. (author)

Accidents, 'Black Swans' and risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luxat, J.C.

2013-01-01

Major accidents and natural disasters with severe consequences have occurred in all sectors of industrial activity with relatively high frequency. The severe consequences of concern involve either significant loss of life or major economic loss, or both loss of life and economic loss. Such events have in the last two years often been referred to as 'Black Swan' events following publication of a best-selling book. The events demonstrate limits to the application of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) that arise from the underlying unquantifiable uncertainty associated with the estimation of the frequency of occurrence of such events. An approach is proposed in this paper that, consistent with the concept of defense in depth employed by the nuclear industry, augments probabilistic risk assessment with a methodology based upon 'threat -risk assessment'. This approach shifts these very low frequency, high uncertainty, and high consequence 'Black Swan' events out of the probabilistic risk assessment domain and into a deterministic emergency response assessment domain. (author)

Source terms: an investigation of uncertainties, magnitudes, and recommendations for research. [PWR; BWR

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Levine, S.; Kaiser, G. D.; Arcieri, W. C.; Firstenberg, H.; Fulford, P. J.; Lam, P. S.; Ritzman, R. L.; Schmidt, E. R.

1982-03-01

The purpose of this document is to assess the state of knowledge and expert opinions that exist about fission product source terms from potential nuclear power plant accidents. This is so that recommendations can be made for research and analyses which have the potential to reduce the uncertainties in these estimated source terms and to derive improved methods for predicting their magnitudes. The main reasons for writing this report are to indicate the major uncertainties involved in defining realistic source terms that could arise from severe reactor accidents, to determine which factors would have the most significant impact on public risks and emergency planning, and to suggest research and analyses that could result in the reduction of these uncertainties. Source terms used in the conventional consequence calculations in the licensing process are not explicitly addressed.

Possible consequences of severe accidents at the Lubiatowo site, Poland

Science.gov (United States)

Seibert, Petra; Philipp, Anne; Hofman, Radek; Gufler, Klaus; Sholly, Steven

2014-05-01

The construction of a nuclear power plant is under consideration in Poland. One of the sites under discussion is near Lubiatowo, located on the cost of the Baltic Sea northwest of Gdansk. An assessment of possible environmental consequences is carried out for 88 real meteorological cases with the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART. Based on literature research, three reactor designs (ABWR, EPR, AP 1000) were identified as being under discussion in Poland. For each of the designs, a set of accident scenarios was evaluated and two source terms per reactor design were selected for analysis. One of the selected source terms was a relatively large release while the second one was a severe accident with an intact containment. Considered endpoints of the calculations are ground contamination with Cs-137 and time-integrated concentrations of I-131 in air as well as committed doses. They are evaluated on a grid of ca. 3 km mesh size covering eastern Central Europe.

Consequences of the Chernobyl accident for people and the environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-01-01

This report recalls the accident scenario, discusses the dispersion of the radioactive plume, comments the contamination at the vicinity of the power station, discusses and comments data related to radioactive deposits in Europe and in France, comments available information regarding radioactive fallouts in Belarus, Ukraine and Russia (models have been used to assess radioactive deposits). It addresses the issue of food product contamination in these three countries (impact on farm products, on water streams and on forests), but also in France. It comments the health impacts, more particularly on the people who intervened on the site, but also on people who received medium doses. Thyroid cancer data are discussed for the three mainly concerned countries. Other pathologies and non-cancerous effects are also discussed. The mortality induced by the accident is commented. Effects in France are evoked as well as social and economic consequences in Ukraine, Belarus and Russia. The document provides several links to other documents for further and more detailed information

Thermal-hydraulic uncertainties affecting severe accident progression

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haskin, F.E.; Behr, V.L.

1984-01-01

To provide the proper technical bases for decisions regarding severe accidents, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is sponsoring the following activities: (a) a variety of severe accident research programs, combined under the Severe Accident Research Plan; (b) nationwide task forces on containment loading, containment response, and fission product source terms; (c) a review by the American Physical Society of state-of-the-art methods for calculating radiological source terms; and (d) technical exchange meetings with the Industry Degraded Core (IDCOR) program. One of the means for integrating this developing array of technical information is the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP). One of the current SARRP objectives is to utilize insights gained from the activities listed above to characterize the relative likelihoods of competing containment failure modes for core-melt accidents

Investigation of loss of coolant accidents in pressurized water reactors using the ''Dynamic Best-Estimate Safety Analysis'' (DYBESA) method for considering of uncertainties in TRACE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sporn, Michael; Hurtado, Antonio

2016-01-01

Loss of coolant accident must take uncertainties with potentially strong effects on the accident sequence prediction into account. For example, uncertainties in computational model input parameters resulting from varying geometry and material data due to manufacturing tolerances or unavailable measurements should be considered. The uncertainties of physical models used by the software program are also significant. In this paper, use of the ''Dynamic Best-Estimate Safety Analysis'' (DYBESA) method to quantify the uncertainties in the TRACE thermal-hydraulic program is demonstrated. For demonstration purposes loss of coolant accidents with breaks of various types and sizes in a DN 700 reactor coolant pipe are used as an example Application.

Levels of endogenous regulatory factors in liquidators of consequences of the Chernobyl accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liasko, L.I.; Souchkevitch, G.N.; Tsyb, A.F.

1997-01-01

Dynamics of endogenous regulatory factor levels was studied in liquidators of consequences of the Chernobyl accident (mean age - 42 years). Irradiation dose for 90% of examined individuals was within 100 mSv range. We observed a decreased level of synthesis of intracellular processes regulators (cAMP, cGMP) and biased ratio of arachidonic acid metabolites (TxB2, 6-Keto-PGF1α) in persons worked in the zone of accident at different time during the period of 1986-1988. The parameters measured were preserved even 4 years later and the changes apparently did not depend on the individual's age and work conditions. However they were most pronounced in liquidators of 1986 and in those who stayed in the Chernobyl accident zone for a long time. There was no evident connection between the dose and extent of the parameter alterations. (author)

The Radiological Accident in Lia, Georgia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2014-12-15

The use of radioactive material offers a wide range of benefits to medicine, research and industry throughout the world. Precautions are necessary, however, to limit the exposure of people to the radiation emitted. Where the amount of radioactive material is substantial, as in the case of radiotherapy or industrial radiography sources, great care is required to prevent accidents which could have severe consequences. Nevertheless, in spite of the precautions taken, serious accidents involving radiation sources continue to occur, albeit infrequently. The IAEA conducts follow-up reviews of such serious accidents to provide an account of their circumstances and consequences, from which organizations with responsibilities for radiation protection, safety of sources and emergency preparedness and response may learn. A serious radiological accident occurred in Georgia on 2 December 2001, when three inhabitants of the village of Lia found two metal objects in the forest while collecting firewood. These objects were {sup 90}Sr sources with an activity of 1295 TBq. The three inhabitants used the objects as heaters when spending the night in the forest. The major cause of the accident was the improper and unauthorized abandonment of radiation sources in Georgia and the absence of clear labels or radiation signs on the sources warning of the potential radiation hazard. Under the Convention on Assistance in the Case of a Nuclear Accident or Radiological Emergency (Assistance Convention), the Georgian authorities requested assistance from the IAEA to advise on the dose assessment, source recovery and medical management of those involved in the accident. This publication describes the circumstances and events surrounding the accident, its management and the medical treatment of the people exposed. It also describes the dose reconstruction calculations and biodosimetry assessments conducted. A number of uncertainties remain relating to some details of the accident. However

The Radiological Accident in Lia, Georgia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2014-12-01

The use of radioactive material offers a wide range of benefits to medicine, research and industry throughout the world. Precautions are necessary, however, to limit the exposure of people to the radiation emitted. Where the amount of radioactive material is substantial, as in the case of radiotherapy or industrial radiography sources, great care is required to prevent accidents which could have severe consequences. Nevertheless, in spite of the precautions taken, serious accidents involving radiation sources continue to occur, albeit infrequently. The IAEA conducts follow-up reviews of such serious accidents to provide an account of their circumstances and consequences, from which organizations with responsibilities for radiation protection, safety of sources and emergency preparedness and response may learn. A serious radiological accident occurred in Georgia on 2 December 2001, when three inhabitants of the village of Lia found two metal objects in the forest while collecting firewood. These objects were 90 Sr sources with an activity of 1295 TBq. The three inhabitants used the objects as heaters when spending the night in the forest. The major cause of the accident was the improper and unauthorized abandonment of radiation sources in Georgia and the absence of clear labels or radiation signs on the sources warning of the potential radiation hazard. Under the Convention on Assistance in the Case of a Nuclear Accident or Radiological Emergency (Assistance Convention), the Georgian authorities requested assistance from the IAEA to advise on the dose assessment, source recovery and medical management of those involved in the accident. This publication describes the circumstances and events surrounding the accident, its management and the medical treatment of the people exposed. It also describes the dose reconstruction calculations and biodosimetry assessments conducted. A number of uncertainties remain relating to some details of the accident. However, sufficient

Effect of parameter variation of reactor coolant pump on loss of coolant accident consequence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dang Gaojian; Huang Daishun; Gao Yingxian; He Xiaoqiang

2015-01-01

In this paper, the analyses were carried out on Ling'ao nuclear power station phase II to study the consequence of the loss of coolant accident when the homologous characteristic curves and free volumes of the reactor coolant pump changed. Two different pumps used in the analysis were 100D (employed on Ling'ao nuclear power station phase II) and ANDRITZ. The thermal characteristics in the large break LOCA accident were analyzed using CATHRE GB and CONPATE4, and the reactor coolant system hydraulics load during blow-clown phase of LOCA accident was analyzed using ATHIS and FORCET. The calculated results show that the homologous characteristic curves have great effect on the thermal characteristics of reactor core during the reflood phase of the large break LOCA accident. The maximum cladding surface temperatures are quite different when the pump's homologous characteristic curves change. On the other hand, the pump's free volume changing results in the variation of the LOCA rarefaction wave propagation, and therefore, the reactor coolant system hydraulic load in LOCA accident would be different. (authors)

Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abrahamson, S.; Bender, M.A.; Boecker, B.B.; Scott, B.R.

1993-05-01

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has sponsored several studies to identify and quantify, through the use of models, the potential health effects of accidental releases of radionuclides from nuclear power plants. The Reactor Safety Study provided the basis for most of the earlier estimates related to these health effects. Subsequent efforts by NRC-supported groups resulted in improved health effects models that were published in the report entitled open-quotes Health Effects Models for Nuclear Power Plant Consequence Analysisclose quotes, NUREG/CR-4214, 1985 and revised further in the 1989 report NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 2. The health effects models presented in the 1989 NUREG/CR-4214 report were developed for exposure to low-linear energy transfer (LET) (beta and gamma) radiation based on the best scientific information available at that time. Since the 1989 report was published, two addenda to that report have been prepared to (1) incorporate other scientific information related to low-LET health effects models and (2) extend the models to consider the possible health consequences of the addition of alpha-emitting radionuclides to the exposure source term. The first addendum report, entitled open-quotes Health Effects Models for Nuclear Power Plant Accident Consequence Analysis, Modifications of Models Resulting from Recent Reports on Health Effects of Ionizing Radiation, Low LET Radiation, Part 2: Scientific Bases for Health Effects Models,close quotes was published in 1991 as NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 2, Addendum 1. This second addendum addresses the possibility that some fraction of the accident source term from an operating nuclear power plant comprises alpha-emitting radionuclides. Consideration of chronic high-LET exposure from alpha radiation as well as acute and chronic exposure to low-LET beta and gamma radiations is a reasonable extension of the health effects model

The environmental restoration in the management of radiological accidents with off site consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vazquez, C.; Montero, M.; Moraleda, M.; Diaz, J.; Claver, F.; Valles, O.; Rodriguez, N.; Gutierrez, J.

1998-01-01

Radiological accidents are among the potential cases of environmental contamination that could have consequences on the health of the population. These accidents, associated with an increase in the level of radiological exposure surpassing the natural background, have been investigated in greater depth than other conventional accidents. This investigation has included the evaluation of their probability, magnitude and consequences in order to establish safety norms. Nevertheless, the social perception of this type of risk appears to be disproportionately high. The development of a comprehensible and adequate standardized system for the evaluation of the radiological risk and the applicability of corrective actions to reduce this type of risk at local level, will undoubtedly contribute to increase the public confidence in the advised options for the restoration of environments contaminated with the long lived radionuclides. This system should consider the local specificity of each contaminated place, and take into account the associated unwanted consequences for each option. This paper presents the first results of a system to help the decision makers in the quantitative evaluation of the radiological risk produced by long lived radionuclides Cs 137, Cs 134 and Sr 90 spread over urban, agricultural and semi-natural environments and the applicable options to reduce it. The evaluation of these applicable options is made considering the reduction of dose that can be reached, the monetary costs and the significant associated secondary effects if there are any. All these factors are integrated for a time period depending on the half-life of the contaminants and on their strength and distribution on the scenario when intervention is being planned. (authors)

Uncertainties in source term estimates for a station blackout accident in a BWR with Mark I containment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, M.; Cazzoli, E.; Liu, Y.; Davis, R.; Nourbakhsh, H.; Schmidt, E.; Unwin, S.; Khatib-Rahbar, M.

1988-01-01

In this paper, attention is limited to a single accident progression sequence, namly a station blackout accident in a BWR with a Mark I containment building. Identified as an important accident in the draft version of NUREG-1150 a station blackout involves loss of both off-site power and dc power resulting in failure of the diesels to start and in the unavailability of the high pressure injection and core isolation cooling systems. This paper illustrates the calculated uncertainties (Probability Density Functions) associated with the radiological releases into the environment for the nine fission product groups at 10 hours following the initiation of core-concrete interactions. Also shown are the results ofthe STCP base case simulation. 5 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

Severe accident modeling and offsite dose consequence evaluations for nuclear power plant emergency planning

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chen, S.H.; Feng, T.S.; Huang, K.C. [National Tsing-Hua Univ., Hsinchu, Taiwan (China); Wang, J.R. [Inst. of Nuclear Energy Research, Longtan, Taiwan (China); Cheng, Y.H. [Industrial Tech. Res. Inst., Hsinchu, Taiwan (China); Shih, C., E-mail: ckshih@ess.nthu.edu.tw [National Tsing-Hua Univ., Hsinchu, Taiwan (China)

2011-07-01

We have investigated the roles of Firewater Addition System and Passive Flooder in ABWR severe accidents, such as LOCA and SBO. The results are apparent that Firewater System is vital in the highly unlikely situation where all AC are lost. Also in this paper, we present EPZDose, an effective and faster-than-real time code for offsite dose consequences predictions and evaluations. Illustrations with the release from our severe accident scenario show friendly and informative user's interface for supporting decision makings in nuclear emergency situations. (author)

Proceedings of the first part of a joint OECD(NEA)/CEC workshop on recent advances in reactor accident consequence assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1988-02-15

The first part of the Joint Workshop, organised by the NEA, is focused on the progress achieved in the work of CSNI's GRECA (Group of Experts on Accident Consequences). The program is composed of the following papers. Session 1: characteristics of the Chernobyl release and fallout that affect transport and behaviour of radioactive substances in the environment; Chernobyl accident and hot particles in the fallout; radionuclides associated with colloids and particles in the Chernobyl fallout; source term in the Chernobyl accident; long range transport of radionuclides; parameters in consequence calculations for an urban area. Session 2: review of evaluations concerning radionuclide transfer to foodstuffs via plants in view of the data available after the Chernobyl accident; GRECA review of Chernobyl data on transfer to animal products; Chernobyl accident radiometric data (Cs-137 in fresh water fishes of north Italy lakes); distribution of Cs-137 in water sediment and fish in the Ijsselmeer (Netherlands); uptake in the human body resulting from the Chernobyl accident; radioactivity of people in the nordic countries following the Chernobyl accident; preparations for an international study to evaluate long-range transport models against the Chernobyl accident

Approach to uncertainty evaluation for safety analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ogura, Katsunori

2005-01-01

Nuclear power plant safety used to be verified and confirmed through accident simulations using computer codes generally because it is very difficult to perform integrated experiments or tests for the verification and validation of the plant safety due to radioactive consequence, cost, and scaling to the actual plant. Traditionally the plant safety had been secured owing to the sufficient safety margin through the conservative assumptions and models to be applied to those simulations. Meanwhile the best-estimate analysis based on the realistic assumptions and models in support of the accumulated insights could be performed recently, inducing the reduction of safety margin in the analysis results and the increase of necessity to evaluate the reliability or uncertainty of the analysis results. This paper introduces an approach to evaluate the uncertainty of accident simulation and its results. (Note: This research had been done not in the Japan Nuclear Energy Safety Organization but in the Tokyo Institute of Technology.) (author)

Consequence Analysis of Release from KN-18 Cask during a Severe Transportation Accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lim, Heoksoon; Bhang, Giin; Na, Janghwan; Ban, Jaeha; Kim, Myungsu

2015-01-01

Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power (KHNP) has launched a project entitled 'Development of APR1400 Physical Protection System Design' and conducting a new conceptual physical protection system(PPS) design. One of mayor contents is consequence analysis for spent nuclear fuel cask. Proper design of physical protection system for facilities and storage and transformation involving nuclear and radioactive material requires the quantification of potential consequence from prescribed sabotage and theft scenarios in order to properly understand the level of PPS needed for specific facilities and materials. An important aspect of the regulation of the nuclear industry is assessing the risk to the public and the environment from a release of radioactive material produced by accidental or intentional scenarios. This paper describes the consequence analysis methodology, structural analysis for KN-18 cask and results of release from the cask during a severe transportation accident. Accident during spent fuel cask transportation was numerically calculated for KN-18, and showed the integrity of the fuel assemblies and cask itself was unharmed on a scenario that is comparable to state of art NRC research. Even assumption of leakage as a size of 1 x 10''2 mm''2 does not exceed for a certain criteria at any distance

Consequence Analysis of Release from KN-18 Cask during a Severe Transportation Accident

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lim, Heoksoon; Bhang, Giin; Na, Janghwan; Ban, Jaeha; Kim, Myungsu [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-05-15

Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power (KHNP) has launched a project entitled 'Development of APR1400 Physical Protection System Design' and conducting a new conceptual physical protection system(PPS) design. One of mayor contents is consequence analysis for spent nuclear fuel cask. Proper design of physical protection system for facilities and storage and transformation involving nuclear and radioactive material requires the quantification of potential consequence from prescribed sabotage and theft scenarios in order to properly understand the level of PPS needed for specific facilities and materials. An important aspect of the regulation of the nuclear industry is assessing the risk to the public and the environment from a release of radioactive material produced by accidental or intentional scenarios. This paper describes the consequence analysis methodology, structural analysis for KN-18 cask and results of release from the cask during a severe transportation accident. Accident during spent fuel cask transportation was numerically calculated for KN-18, and showed the integrity of the fuel assemblies and cask itself was unharmed on a scenario that is comparable to state of art NRC research. Even assumption of leakage as a size of 1 x 10''2 mm''2 does not exceed for a certain criteria at any distance.

Health effects estimation code development for accident consequence analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Togawa, O.; Homma, T.

1992-01-01

As part of a computer code system for nuclear reactor accident consequence analysis, two computer codes have been developed for estimating health effects expected to occur following an accident. Health effects models used in the codes are based on the models of NUREG/CR-4214 and are revised for the Japanese population on the basis of the data from the reassessment of the radiation dosimetry and information derived from epidemiological studies on atomic bomb survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The health effects models include early and continuing effects, late somatic effects and genetic effects. The values of some model parameters are revised for early mortality. The models are modified for predicting late somatic effects such as leukemia and various kinds of cancers. The models for genetic effects are the same as those of NUREG. In order to test the performance of one of these codes, it is applied to the U.S. and Japanese populations. This paper provides descriptions of health effects models used in the two codes and gives comparisons of the mortality risks from each type of cancer for the two populations. (author)

Development of an accident consequence assessment code for evaluating site suitability of light- and heavy-water reactors based on the Korean Technical standards

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hwang, Won Tae; Jeong, Hae Sung; Jeong, Hyo Joon; Kil, A Reum; Kim, Eun Han; Han, Moon Hee [Nuclear Environment Safety Research Division, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-12-15

Methodologies for a series of radiological consequence assessments show a distinctive difference according to the design principles of the original nuclear suppliers and their technical standards to be imposed. This is due to the uncertainties of the accidental source term, radionuclide behavior in the environment, and subsequent radiological dose. Both types of PWR and PHWR are operated in Korea. However, technical standards for evaluating atmospheric dispersion have been enacted based on the U.S. NRC's positions regardless of the reactor types. For this reason, it might cause a controversy between the licensor and licensee of a nuclear power plant. It was modelled under the framework of the NRC Regulatory Guide 1.145 for light-water reactors, reflecting the features of heavy-water reactors as specified in the Canadian National Standard and the modelling features in MACCS2, such as atmospheric diffusion coefficient, ground deposition, surface roughness, radioactive plume depletion, and exposure from ground deposition. An integrated accident consequence assessment code, ACCESS (Accident Consequence Assessment Code for Evaluating Site Suitability), was developed by taking into account the unique regulatory positions for reactor types under the framework of the current Korean technical standards. Field tracer experiments and hand calculations have been carried out for validation and verification of the models. The modelling approaches of ACCESS and its features are introduced, and its applicative results for a hypothetical accidental scenario are comprehensively discussed. In an applicative study, the predicted results by the light-water reactor assessment model were higher than those by other models in terms of total doses.

Demonstration uncertainty/sensitivity analysis using the health and economic consequence model CRAC2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alpert, D.J.; Iman, R.L.; Johnson, J.D.; Helton, J.C.

1984-12-01

The techniques for performing uncertainty/sensitivity analyses compiled as part of the MELCOR program appear to be well suited for use with a health and economic consequence model. Two replicate samples of size 50 gave essentially identical results, indicating that for this case, a Latin hypercube sample of size 50 seems adequate to represent the distribution of results. Though the intent of this study was a demonstration of uncertainty/sensitivity analysis techniques, a number of insights relevant to health and economic consequence modeling can be gleaned: uncertainties in early deaths are significantly greater than uncertainties in latent cancer deaths; though the magnitude of the source term is the largest source of variation in estimated distributions of early deaths, a number of additional parameters are also important; even with the release fractions for a full SST1, one quarter of the CRAC2 runs gave no early deaths; and comparison of the estimates of mean early deaths for a full SST1 release in this study with those of recent point estimates for similar conditions indicates that the recent estimates may be significant overestimations of early deaths. Estimates of latent cancer deaths, however, are roughly comparable. An analysis of the type described here can provide insights in a number of areas. First, the variability in the results gives an indication of the potential uncertainty associated with the calculations. Second, the sensitivity of the results to assumptions about the input variables can be determined. Research efforts can then be concentrated on reducing the uncertainty in the variables which are the largest contributors to uncertainty in results

Process criticality accident likelihoods, consequences and emergency planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McLaughlin, T.P.

1992-01-01

Evaluation of criticality accident risks in the processing of significant quantities of fissile materials is both complex and subjective, largely due to the lack of accident statistics. Thus, complying with national and international standards and regulations which require an evaluation of the net benefit of a criticality accident alarm system, is also subjective. A review of guidance found in the literature on potential accident magnitudes is presented for different material forms and arrangements. Reasoned arguments are also presented concerning accident prevention and accident likelihoods for these material forms and arrangements. (Author)

Source term assessment, containment atmosphere control systems, and accident consequences. Report to CSNI by an OECD/NEA Group of experts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1987-04-01

CSNI Report 135 summarizes the results of the work performed by CSNI's Principal Working Group No. 4 on the Source Term and Environmental Consequences (PWG4) during the period extending from 1983 to 1986. This document contains the latest information on some important topics relating to source terms, accident consequence assessment, and containment atmospheric control systems. It consists of five parts: (1) a Foreword and Executive Summary prepared by PWG4's Chairman; (2) a Report on the Technical Status of the Source Term; (3) a Report on the Technical Status of Filtration and Containment Atmosphere Control Systems for Nuclear Reactors in the Event of a Severe Accident; (4) a Report on the Technical Status of Reactor Accident Consequence Assessment; (5) a list of members of PWG4

Quantifying reactor safety margins: Application of code scaling, applicability, and uncertainty evaluation methodology to a large-break, loss-of-coolant accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boyack, B.; Duffey, R.; Wilson, G.; Griffith, P.; Lellouche, G.; Levy, S.; Rohatgi, U.; Wulff, W.; Zuber, N.

1989-12-01

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has issued a revised rule for loss-of-coolant accident/emergency core cooling system (ECCS) analysis of light water reactors to allow the use of best-estimate computer codes in safety analysis as an option. A key feature of this option requires the licensee to quantify the uncertainty of the calculations and include that uncertainty when comparing the calculated results with acceptance limits provided in 10 CFR Part 50. To support the revised ECCS rule and illustrate its application, the NRC and its contractors and consultants have developed and demonstrated an uncertainty evaluation methodology called code scaling, applicability, and uncertainty (CSAU). The CSAU methodology and an example application described in this report demonstrate that uncertainties in complex phenomena can be quantified. The methodology is structured, traceable, and practical, as is needed in the regulatory arena. The methodology is systematic and comprehensive as it addresses and integrates the scenario, experiments, code, and plant to resolve questions concerned with: (a) code capability to scale-up processes from test facility to full-scale nuclear power plants; (b) code applicability to safety studies of a postulated accident scenario in a specified nuclear power plant; and (c) quantifying uncertainties of calculated results. 127 refs., 55 figs., 40 tabs

Accidents - Chernobyl accident; Accidents - accident de Tchernobyl

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2004-07-01

This file is devoted to the Chernobyl accident. It is divided in four parts. The first part concerns the accident itself and its technical management. The second part is relative to the radiation doses and the different contaminations. The third part reports the sanitary effects, the determinists ones and the stochastic ones. The fourth and last part relates the consequences for the other European countries with the case of France. Through the different parts a point is tackled with the measures taken after the accident by the other countries to manage an accident, the cooperation between the different countries and the groups of research and studies about the reactors safety, and also with the international medical cooperation, specially for the children, everything in relation with the Chernobyl accident. (N.C.)

Uncertainties in hydrogen combustion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stamps, D.W.; Wong, C.C.; Nelson, L.S.

1988-01-01

Three important areas of hydrogen combustion with uncertainties are identified: high-temperature combustion, flame acceleration and deflagration-to-detonation transition, and aerosol resuspension during hydrogen combustion. The uncertainties associated with high-temperature combustion may affect at least three different accident scenarios: the in-cavity oxidation of combustible gases produced by core-concrete interactions, the direct containment heating hydrogen problem, and the possibility of local detonations. How these uncertainties may affect the sequence of various accident scenarios is discussed and recommendations are made to reduce these uncertainties. 40 references

The impact of the Chernobyl accident on Norway

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Christensen, G.C.

1988-01-01

As the fallout from the atmospheric nuclear weapons tests gradually decreased during the 1970s, the national preparedness and analytical capacity in Norway gradually disintegrated as well. The Chernobyl accident was therefore met without any overall contingency preparedness plan. The affected governmental bodies and other institutions had to improvise their first steps, including information to the public, until necessary coordination had been established. A complicating factor was the change of government during the first days of May 1986, the reasons for this had however nothing to do with the reactor accident. A great deal of uncertainty prevailed about the accident and its consequences especially during the first days after the accident. The Ministry of Health and Social Affairs and the Ministry of the Environment in May 1986 both appointed committees to report on the accident and its impacts and on a future preparedness system, although their terms of reference were not identical. A third committee was appointed in June by the Ministry of Health and Social Affairs to report on the information crises in connection with the accident

[Thrombosis and post-thrombotic syndrome as a consequence of an accident].

Science.gov (United States)

Wahl, U; Hirsch, T

2015-10-01

Phlebothromboses represent alarming complications in accident victims since they can cause fatal pulmonary embolisms. More than half of those affected also develop post-thrombotic syndrome in the course of the illness. In addition to making clinical assessments, the traumatologist should also have fundamental knowledge about diagnostic methods and be familiar with interpreting internal findings. Colour-coded duplex sonography plays a central role in diagnosing thrombosis and in assessing functional limitations. Further information can be gathered from various phlebological procedures. The expert evaluation of the immediate, as well as the long-term consequences of an accident frequently require leg swelling to be classified. It is not uncommon for post-thrombotic syndrome to be diagnosed for the first time during this process. An additional vascular appraisal is often required. An appreciation of social-medical and insurance-related aspects means a high degree of responsibility is placed on the expert.

The Role of Countermeasures in Mitigating the Radiological Consequences of Nuclear Power Plant Accidents

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tawfik, F. S.; Abdel-Aal, M.M., E-mail: basant572000@yahoo.com [Siting & Environmental Department, Nuclear and Radiological Regulatory Authority, Cairo (Egypt)

2014-10-15

During the Fukushima accident the mitigation actions played an important role to decrease the consequences of the accident. The countermeasures are the actions that should be taken after the occurrence of a nuclear accident to protect the public against the associated risk. The actions may be represented by sheltering, evacuation, distribution of stable iodine tablets and/or relocation. This study represents a comprehensive probabilistic study to investigate the role of the adoption of the countermeasures in case of a hypothetical accident of type LOCA for a nuclear power plant of PWR (1000 Mw) type. This work was achieved through running of the PC COSYMA{sup (1)} code. The effective doses in different organs, short and long term health effects, and the associated risks were calculated with and without countermeasures. In addition, the overall costs of the accident and the costs of countermeasures are estimated which represent our first trials to know how much the postulated accident costs. The source term of a hypothetical accident is determined by knowing the activity of the core inventory. The meteorological conditions around the site in addition to the population distribution were utilized as input parameters. The stability conditions and the height of atmospheric boundary layers ABL of the concerned site were determined by developing a computer program utilizing Pasquill-Gifford atmospheric stability conditions. The results showed that, the area around the site requires early and late countermeasures actions after the accident especially in the downwind sectors. For late countermeasures, the duration of relocation ranged from about two to 10 years. The adoption of the countermeasures increases the costs of emergency planning by 40% but reduces the risk associated with the accident. (author)

The Uncertainty Test for the MAAP Computer Code

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, S. H.; Song, Y. M.; Park, S. Y.; Ahn, K. I.; Kim, K. R.; Lee, Y. J.

2008-01-01

After the Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) and Chernobyl accidents, safety issues for a severe accident are treated in various aspects. Major issues in our research part include a level 2 PSA. The difficulty in expanding the level 2 PSA as a risk information activity is the uncertainty. In former days, it attached a weight to improve the quality in a internal accident PSA, but the effort is insufficient for decrease the phenomenon uncertainty in the level 2 PSA. In our country, the uncertainty degree is high in the case of a level 2 PSA model, and it is necessary to secure a model to decrease the uncertainty. We have not yet experienced the uncertainty assessment technology, the assessment system itself depends on advanced nations. In advanced nations, the severe accident simulator is implemented in the hardware level. But in our case, basic function in a software level can be implemented. In these circumstance at home and abroad, similar instances are surveyed such as UQM and MELCOR. Referred to these instances, SAUNA (Severe Accident UNcertainty Analysis) system is being developed in our project to assess and decrease the uncertainty in a level 2 PSA. It selects the MAAP code to analyze the uncertainty in a severe accident

Probabilistic approach in treatment of deterministic analyses results of severe accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krajnc, B.; Mavko, B.

1996-01-01

Severe accidents sequences resulting in loss of the core geometric integrity have been found to have small probability of the occurrence. Because of their potential consequences to public health and safety, an evaluation of the core degradation progression and the resulting effects on the containment is necessary to determine the probability of a significant release of radioactive materials. This requires assessment of many interrelated phenomena including: steel and zircaloy oxidation, steam spikes, in-vessel debris cooling, potential vessel failure mechanisms, release of core material to the containment, containment pressurization from steam generation, or generation of non-condensable gases or hydrogen burn, and ultimately coolability of degraded core material. To asses the answer from the containment event trees in the sense of weather certain phenomenological event would happen or not the plant specific deterministic analyses should be performed. Due to the fact that there is a large uncertainty in the prediction of severe accidents phenomena in Level 2 analyses (containment event trees) the combination of probabilistic and deterministic approach should be used. In fact the result of the deterministic analyses of severe accidents are treated in probabilistic manner due to large uncertainty of results as a consequence of a lack of detailed knowledge. This paper discusses approach used in many IPEs, and which assures that the assigned probability for certain question in the event tree represent the probability that the event will or will not happen and that this probability also includes its uncertainty, which is mainly result of lack of knowledge. (author)

Process criticality accident likelihoods, consequences, and emergency planning

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McLaughlin, T.P.

1991-01-01

Evaluation of criticality accident risks in the processing of significant quantities of fissile materials is both complex and subjective, largely due to the lack of accident statistics. Thus, complying with standards such as ISO 7753 which mandates that the need for an alarm system be evaluated, is also subjective. A review of guidance found in the literature on potential accident magnitudes is presented for different material forms and arrangements. Reasoned arguments are also presented concerning accident prevention and accident likelihoods for these material forms and arrangements. 13 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.

Research activity about the radiological consequences of the Chernobyl NPS accident and social activity to assist its sufferers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Imanaka, Tetsuji; Koide, Hiroaki; Kobayashi, Keiji

1998-01-01

Due to the Chernobyl Accident in April 1986, a series of serious radiological consequences were brought in Ukraine, Belarus and Russia. The former Soviet Union and the authorities in the world such as IAEA, however, have been denying serious health consequences among the people around Chernobyl since the beginning of the accident. On the other hand, a lot of works indicating serious health effects of the accident have been reported by scientists in these affected countries although they are not well known in the western countries. Since 1993, under the research grant of the Toyota foundation, we have continued a cooperative program to investigate research activities in these countries about the Chernobyl accident and to look into data and information that were not known so far. The information concerning the social system and activity to assist the sufferers from the accident has been also overviewed, including legal aspects of the Chernobyl problem. Here we are presenting an outline of our cooperation activity and our work concerning dose estimation for the inhabitants around the Chernobyl NPS at the first stage after the accident. The results of our estimation suggest that at least several hundreds of inhabitants received radiation dose exceeding 1 Sv before their evacuation. The whole reports of our cooperation program will be published in English and in Japanese in the next year. (author)

ASSESSMENT OF THE FUKUSIMA NUCLEAR POWER PLANT ACCIDENT CONSEQUENCES BY THE POPULATION IN THE FAR EAST

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. V. Arkhangelskaya

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The article analyzes the attitude of the population in the five regions of the Far East to the consequences of the accident at the Fukushimai nuclear power plant, as well as the issues of informing about the accident. The analysis of public opinion is based on the data obtained by anonymous questionnaire survey performed in November 2011. In spite of the rather active informing and objective information on the absence of the contamination, most of the population of the Russian Far East believes that radioactive contamination is presented in the areas of their residence, and the main cause of this contamination is the nuclear accident in Japan.

Consequences in Norway after a hypothetical accident at Sellafield - Predicted impacts on the environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thoerring, H.; Ytre-Eide, M.A.; Liland, A.

2010-12-01

This report describes the possible environmental consequences for Norway due to a hypothetical accident at the Sellafield complex in the UK. The scenario considered involves an explosion and fire at the B215 facility resulting in a 1 % release of the total HAL (Highly Active liquor) inventory of radioactive waste with a subsequent air transport and deposition in Norway. Air transport modelling is based on real meteorological data from October 2008 with wind direction towards Norway and heavy precipitation. This weather is considered to be quite representative as typical seasonal weather. Based on this weather scenario, the estimated fallout in Norway will be ∼ 17 P Bq of caesium-137 which is 7 times higher than the fallout from the Chernobyl accident. The modelled radioactive contamination is linked with data on transfer to the food chain and statistics on production and hunting to assess the consequences for foodstuffs. The investigation has been limited to the terrestrial environment, focussing on wild berries, fungi, and animals grazing unimproved pastures (i.e. various types of game, reindeer, sheep and goats). The predicted consequences are severe - especially in connection to sheep and goat production. Up to 80 % of the lambs in Norway could be exceeding the food intervention levels for radiocaesium the first years after the fallout, with 30-40 % likely to be above for many years. There will, consequently, be a need for extensive countermeasures in large areas for years or even decades involving several hundred thousand animals each year. Large consequences are also expected for reindeer husbandry - the first year in particular due to the time of fallout which is just prior to winter slaughter. The consequences will be most sever for reindeer herding in middle and southern parts of Norway, but problems may reach as far north as Finnmark where we find the majority of Norwegian reindeer production. The consequences for game will mostly depend on the regional

Consequences in Norway after a hypothetical accident at Sellafield - Predicted impacts on the environment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Thoerring, H.; Ytre-Eide, M.A.; Liland, A.

2010-12-15

This report describes the possible environmental consequences for Norway due to a hypothetical accident at the Sellafield complex in the UK. The scenario considered involves an explosion and fire at the B215 facility resulting in a 1 % release of the total HAL (Highly Active liquor) inventory of radioactive waste with a subsequent air transport and deposition in Norway. Air transport modelling is based on real meteorological data from October 2008 with wind direction towards Norway and heavy precipitation. This weather is considered to be quite representative as typical seasonal weather. Based on this weather scenario, the estimated fallout in Norway will be approx 17 P Bq of caesium-137 which is 7 times higher than the fallout from the Chernobyl accident. The modelled radioactive contamination is linked with data on transfer to the food chain and statistics on production and hunting to assess the consequences for foodstuffs. The investigation has been limited to the terrestrial environment, focussing on wild berries, fungi, and animals grazing unimproved pastures (i.e. various types of game, reindeer, sheep and goats). The predicted consequences are severe - especially in connection to sheep and goat production. Up to 80 % of the lambs in Norway could be exceeding the food intervention levels for radiocaesium the first years after the fallout, with 30-40 % likely to be above for many years. There will, consequently, be a need for extensive countermeasures in large areas for years or even decades involving several hundred thousand animals each year. Large consequences are also expected for reindeer husbandry - the first year in particular due to the time of fallout which is just prior to winter slaughter. The consequences will be most sever for reindeer herding in middle and southern parts of Norway, but problems may reach as far north as Finnmark where we find the majority of Norwegian reindeer production. The consequences for game will mostly depend on the

Review of psychological consequences of nuclear accidents and empirical study on peoples reactions to radiation protection activities in an imagined situation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haukkala, A.; Eraenen, L.

1994-10-01

The report consist of two parts: a review of studies on psychological consequences of nuclear and radiation accidents in population and an empirical study of peoples reactions to protection actions in an event of hypothetical accident. Review is based on research results from two nuclear reactor accidents (Three Mile Island 1979, Chernobyl 1986) and a radiation accident in Goiania, Brazil 1987. (53 refs, 2 figs.,7 tabs.)

Measures for reduction of severe accident consequences: Comprehensive evaluation of the results sponsored by the BMI

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bracht, K.; Friedrichs, H.G.

1989-01-01

A number of analytical studies were initial in the past by the Federal Ministry of Interior (BMI) of FRG, to investigate the potential of additional constructive measures for risk reduction. Those measures were proposed especially against uncontrolled overpressurization of the containment due to continuous gas/steam generation, penetration of the foundation of the reactor building by melt-concrete interaction, and failure of the containment due to violent hydrogen combustion. This report gives an overview about those studies and summarizes their results. Concerning uncontrolled overpressurization, only filtered venting may be a reasonable measure, while it seems to make not much sense, to look at measures against penetration of the foundation like 'core-catcher' in further detail. To prevent hydrogen combustion with severe consequences, several potential possibilities exist, but none of them can be considered as a safe measure. Additional analysis concerning hydrogen distribution and combustion in a multi-compartment containment are necessary. All studies mentioned in this report, deal with additional constructive measures to mitigate the consequences of severe accidents. Up to day in FRG, the potential of accident prevention and mitigation of its consequences by still or again operable and already existing systems of a plant have not been investigated in detail. As indicated by first results, the use of those systems in the frame of an appropriate accident management may have a large potential for risk reduction. (orig.) [de

Fukushima accident: the consequences in Japan, France and in Japan; Accident de Fukushima: les repercusions au Japon, en France et dans le Japon

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Foucher, N.; Sorin, F.

2011-03-15

This document begins with a description of the Fukushima accident, the second article reviews the main consequences in Japan of the accident: setting of a forbidden zone around the plant, restriction of the exports of food products, or the shutdown of the Hamaoka plant. The third article is the reporting of an interview of L. Oursel, deputy general director of the Areva group, this interview deals mainly with the safety standard of the EPR and with the issue of passive safety systems. The last part of the document is dedicated to the consequences in France (null sanitary impact, cooperation between Areva, EdF, CEA and the Japanese plant operator Tepco...) and in the rest of the world: the organization of resistance tests in the nuclear power plants operating in the European Union, the decision about the agreement of EPR and AP1000 reactor has been delayed in United-Kingdom, acceleration of the German program for abandoning nuclear energy, Italy suspends its nuclear program, China orders a general overhaul of the safety standard of its nuclear power plants, Poland and Romania reaffirm their trust in nuclear energy, France wishes a 'mechanism' allowing a quick international intervention in case of major nuclear accident, Russia proposes measures to improve nuclear safety. (A.C.)

Medico-demographic criteria in estimating the consequences of the Chernobyl accident

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Linge, I I; Melikhova, I A; Pavlovski, O [Nuclear Safety Inst., Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation)

1997-09-01

Correct comparison of population statistics in affected and unaffected areas prior to and after the accident allows to detect any noticeable deviations in basic medico-demographic parameters in contaminated territories from common trends. In view of that when in 1990 in Nuclear Safety Institute a start has been made on construction of an information support system for government and regional executives to overcome the consequences of the Chernobyl disaster a specialized data bank on demography and medical statistics (MDBD) was created. 12 refs, 7 figs, 8 tabs.

Medico-demographic criteria in estimating the consequences of the Chernobyl accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Linge, I.I.; Melikhova, I.A.; Pavlovski, O.

1997-01-01

Correct comparison of population statistics in affected and unaffected areas prior to and after the accident allows to detect any noticeable deviations in basic medico-demographic parameters in contaminated territories from common trends. In view of that when in 1990 in Nuclear Safety Institute a start has been made on construction of an information support system for government and regional executives to overcome the consequences of the Chernobyl disaster a specialized data bank on demography and medical statistics (MDBD) was created. 12 refs, 7 figs, 8 tabs

Use of questionnaires and an expert panel to judge the environmental consequences of chemical spills for the development of an environment-accident index.

Science.gov (United States)

Andersson, Asa Scott; Stjernström, Olof; Fängmark, Ingrid

2005-05-01

Assessing the environmental consequences of a chemical accident is a complex task. To date, the methods used to evaluate the environmental effects of an acute release of a chemical have often been based on measurements of chemical and physical variables deemed to be important, such as the concentration of the chemical. However, a broader strategy is needed to predict the environmental consequences of potential accidents during the planning process. An Environment-Accident Index (EAI), a simple tool based on such a strategy, has been developed to facilitate the consideration of a multitude of influential variables. The objectives of this study were to evaluate whether questionnaire-based expert panel's judgements could provide useful data on the environmental consequences of chemical spills, and an effective basis for further development of the EAI. As expected, the judgements did not agree perfectly, but they do give rough indications of the environmental effects, and highlight consistent trends that should be useful inputs for planning, prevention and decontamination processes. The different accidents were also judged to have caused everything from minor to very major effects in the environment, implying that a wide range of accident scenarios were represented in the material and covered by the EAI. Therefore, questionnaires and expert panel judgements can be used to collect useful data for estimating the likely environmental consequences of chemical accidents and for further development of the EAI.

Fukushima, one year later. Initial analyses of the accident and its consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2012-01-01

The earthquake of magnitude 9 of March 11, 2011 with an epicenter 80 km east of the Japanese island of Honshu, and the subsequent tsunami, severely affected the region of Tohoku, with major consequences for its population and infrastructure. Devastating the site of the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant, these natural events were the cause of the core meltdowns of three nuclear reactors and the loss of cooling of several spent fuel pools. Explosions also occurred in reactor buildings 1 through 4 due to hydrogen produced during fuel degradation. Very significant radioactive releases into the environment took place. The accident was classified level 7 on the International Nuclear Event Scale (INES). This report provides an assessment and perspective on the information gathered by IRSN during the first twelve months following the disaster in an effort to understand the condition of the installations, evaluate the releases and analyze and evaluate the consequences of the accident on workers and the impact on the population and the environment. On the basis of available information, the report provides an initial analysis of the chain of events. It should be noted that a year after the accident, the full sequence of events is still not understood. Operating experience feedback from the 1979 Three Mile Island accident in the United States, in which reactor core damage was not confirmed until 1986, suggests that it may be several years before a detailed scenario can be constructed of the accident that led to radioactive releases. It will require access to the damaged installations. The situation at the site remains dangerous (reactor pressure vessels and containments are not leak-tight, diffuse releases, etc.). If it has significantly improved as a result of the significant resources deployed by the Tokyo Electro Power Company (TEPCO) to regain control of the installations, this effort must continue over the long term to begin evacuation of fuel from pools (in two

Offsite radiological consequence analysis for the bounding aircraft crash accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

OBERG, B.D.

2003-01-01

The purpose of this calculation note is to quantitatively analyze a bounding aircraft crash accident for comparison to the DOE-STD-3009-94, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'', Appendix A, Evaluation Guideline of 25 rem. The potential of aircraft impacting a facility was evaluated using the approach given in DOE-STD-3014-96, ''Accident Analysis for Aircraft Crash into Hazardous Facilities''. The following aircraft crash FR-equencies were determined for the Tank Farms in RPP-11736, ''Assessment Of Aircraft Crash FR-equency For The Hanford Site 200 Area Tank Farms'': (1) The total aircraft crash FR-equency is ''extremely unlikely.'' (2) The general aviation crash FR-equency is ''extremely unlikely.'' (3) The helicopter crash FR-equency is ''beyond extremely unlikely.'' (4) For the Hanford Site 200 Areas, other aircraft type, commercial or military, each above ground facility, and any other type of underground facility is ''beyond extremely unlikely.'' As the potential of aircraft crash into the 200 Area tank farms is more FR-equent than ''beyond extremely unlikely,'' consequence analysis of the aircraft crash is required

Medical consequences of Chernobyl accident

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Galstyan I.A.

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Aim: to study the long-term effects of acute radiation syndrome (ARS, developed at the victims of the Chernobyl accident. Material and Methods. 237 people were exposed during the accident, 134 of them were diagnosed with ARS. Dynamic observation implies a thorough annual examination in a hospital. Results. In the first 1.5-2 years after the ARS mean group indices of peripheral blood have returned to normal. However, many patients had transient expressed moderate cytopenias. Granulocytopenia, thrombocytopenia, lymphopenia and erythropenia were the most frequently observed things during the first 5 years after the accident. After 5 years their occurences lowered. In 11 patients the radiation cataract was detected. A threshold dose for its development is a dose of 3.2 Gy Long-term effects of local radiation lesions (LRL range from mild skin figure smoothing to a distinct fibrous scarring, contractures, persistently recurrent late radiation ulcers. During all years of observation we found 8 solid tumors, including 2 thyroid cancers. 5 hematologic diseases were found. During 29 years 26 ARS survivors died of various causes. Conclusion. The health of ones with long-term ARS effects is determined by the evolution of the LRL effects on skin, radiation cataracts, hema-tological diseases and the accession of of various somatic diseases, not caused by radiation.

Medical consequences of a nuclear plant accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olsson, S.E.; Reizenstein, P.; Stenke, L.

1987-01-01

The report gives background information concerning radiation and the biological medical effects and damages caused by radiation. The report also discusses nuclear power plant accidents and efforts from the medical service in the case of a nuclear power plant accident. (L.F.)

Reactor safety study. An assessment of accident risks in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. Appendix VI. Calculation of reactor accident consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1975-10-01

Information is presented concerning the radioactive releases from the containment following accidents; radioactive inventory of the reactor core; atmospheric dispersion; reactor sites and meteorological data; radioactive decay and deposition from plumes; finite distance of plume travel; dosimetric models; health effects; demographic data; mitigation of radiation exposure; economic model; and calculated results with consequence model

Knowledge resources on the Chernobyl accident and its consequences in the INIS Database

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Negeri, B.

2005-07-01

Literature on the Chernobyl accident and its consequences is an important subject covered by the International Nuclear Information System (INIS) Database. The INIS Database contains 19872 bibliographic records and 8400 full text documents on this subject from 1986 up to 04/2005. A bibliometric study of these records was made to generate statistical summaries that characterise, in general terms, the intellectual content of the records and the nature of the records in terms of its major bibliographic attributes. Environmental aspects and human health constitute the two dominant subjects with a respective contribution of 49% and 38%. The rest is evenly divided among legal aspects, reactor safety and socio-economic impacts of the accident. The three countries that are most affected by the accident, namely Ukraine, Russian Federation and Belarus contributed 44% of the total input. 57% of the literature analysed are conference papers and reports while 25% are journal articles. Most of the documents were written in English (47%) and in Russian (36%). Seven percent of the publications were written in German. (author)

Accident consequence assessments with different atmospheric dispersion models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Panitz, H.J.

1989-11-01

An essential aim of the improvements of the new program system UFOMOD for Accident Consequence Assessments (ACAs) was to substitute the straight-line Gaussian plume model conventionally used in ACA models by more realistic atmospheric dispersion models. To identify improved models which can be applied in ACA codes and to quantify the implications of different dispersion models on the results of an ACA, probabilistic comparative calculations with different atmospheric dispersion models have been performed. The study showed that there are trajectory models available which can be applied in ACAs and that they provide more realistic results of ACAs than straight-line Gaussian models. This led to a completely novel concept of atmospheric dispersion modelling in which two different distance ranges of validity are distinguished: the near range of some ten kilometres distance and the adjacent far range which are assigned to respective trajectory models. (orig.) [de

Medical and biological aspects of ionizing radiation influence in consequence with accident at ChNPP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shidlovs'ka, T.A.

2011-01-01

This monograph presents the issues on systematic influence of ionizing radiation on the biological systems. The results of personal complex studies because of influence of ionizing radiation in consequence with accident at ChNPP on auditory analyzer, creating voice, cardiovascular system and central nervous system are submitted.

Accidents, 'black swans' and risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luxat, J.C.

2013-01-01

Major accidents and natural disasters with severe consequences have occurred in all sectors of industrial activity with relatively high frequency. The severe consequences of concern involve either significant loss of life or major economic loss, or both loss of life and economic loss. Such events have the last two years been referred to as 'black swan' events following publication of Taleb's bestselling book. These events demonstrate limits to PRA application that arise from the underlying high uncertainty associated with the estimation of frequency of occurrence of such events. An approach is proposed in this paper that, consistent with the concept of defense in depth employed by the nuclear industry, augments probabilistic risk assessment with a methodology based upon 'threat - risk assessment'. This approach shifts these very low frequency high consequence 'black swan' events out of the probabilistic risk assessment domain into a deterministic emergency response assessment domain. (author)

Fuzzy Uncertainty Evaluation for Fault Tree Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Ki Beom; Shim, Hyung Jin [Seoul National University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Jae, Moo Sung [Hanyang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2015-05-15

This traditional probabilistic approach can calculate relatively accurate results. However it requires a long time because of repetitive computation due to the MC method. In addition, when informative data for statistical analysis are not sufficient or some events are mainly caused by human error, the probabilistic approach may not be possible because uncertainties of these events are difficult to be expressed by probabilistic distributions. In order to reduce the computation time and quantify uncertainties of top events when basic events whose uncertainties are difficult to be expressed by probabilistic distributions exist, the fuzzy uncertainty propagation based on fuzzy set theory can be applied. In this paper, we develop a fuzzy uncertainty propagation code and apply the fault tree of the core damage accident after the large loss of coolant accident (LLOCA). The fuzzy uncertainty propagation code is implemented and tested for the fault tree of the radiation release accident. We apply this code to the fault tree of the core damage accident after the LLOCA in three cases and compare the results with those computed by the probabilistic uncertainty propagation using the MC method. The results obtained by the fuzzy uncertainty propagation can be calculated in relatively short time, covering the results obtained by the probabilistic uncertainty propagation.

Consequences of the nuclear power plant accident at Chernobyl

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ginzburg, H.M.; Reis, E.

1991-01-01

The Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident, in the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic (SSR), on April 26, 1986, was the first major nuclear power plant accident that resulted in a large-scale fire and subsequent explosions, immediate and delayed deaths of plant operators and emergency service workers, and the radioactive contamination of a significant land area. The release of radioactive material, over a 10-day period, resulted in millions of Soviets, and other Europeans, being exposed to measurable levels of radioactive fallout. Because of the effects of wind and rain, the radioactive nuclide fallout distribution patterns are not well defined, though they appear to be focused in three contiguous Soviet Republics: the Ukrainian SSR, the Byelorussian SSR, and the Russian Soviet Federated Socialist Republic. Further, because of the many radioactive nuclides (krypton, xenon, cesium, iodine, strontium, plutonium) released by the prolonged fires at Chernobyl, the long-term medical, psychological, social, and economic effects will require careful and prolonged study. Specifically, studies on the medical (leukemia, cancers, thyroid disease) and psychological (reactive depressions, post-traumatic stress disorders, family disorganization) consequences of continued low dose radiation exposure in the affected villages and towns need to be conducted so that a coherent, comprehensive, community-oriented plan may evolve that will not cause those already affected any additional harm and confusion

Radiological consequences of the reactor accident at Three Mile Island, Pennsylvania, USA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bryant, P.M.

1979-01-01

The findings of the Ad Hoc Population Dose Assessment Group are reviewed and summarized (Population Dose and Health Impact of the Accident at the Three Mile Island Nuclear Station. A preliminary assessment for the period March 28 through April 7, 1979; May 10, 1979. Washington DC, US Government Printing Office, 1979). The principal radionuclides released were xenon-133 and xenon-135, with some iodine-131. External exposure to gamma radiation was estimated from TLDs positioned at various on-site and off-site locations. Lung exposure from inhaled xenon-133 was calculated and air and milk monitoring results gave potential dose equivalents to a child's thyroid. These numerical estimates will be further refined, but only minor corrections to the present values are anticipated. The findings of this preliminary assessment have indicated that the radiological consequences to the public of the reactor accident are minimal. (UK)

Consequences of the Chernobyl accident in Lithuania

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mastauskas, A.; Nedvecktaite, T.; Filistovic, V.

1997-01-01

After the Chernobyl accident of 26 April, 1986, population dose assessment favours the view that the radiation risk of population effected by the early fallout would be different from that in regions contaminated later. Taking into account the short half-time of the most important radioactive iodine isotopes, thyroid disorders would be expected mainly to follow the early fallout distribution. At the time of accident at Unite 4 of the Chernobyl NPP, surface winds were from the Southeast. The initial explosions and heat carried volatile radioactive materials to the 1,5 km height, from where they were transported over the Western part of Belarus, Southern and Western part of Lithuania toward Scandinavian countries. Thus the volatile radioiodine and some other radionuclides were detected in Lithuania on the very first days after the accident. The main task of the work - to conduct short Half-time radioiodine and long half-time radiocesium dose assessment of Lithuanian inhabitants a result of the early Chernobyl accident fallout

A review of the uncertainties in the assessment of radiological consequences of spent nuclear fuel disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wiborgh, M.; Elert, M.; Hoeglund, L.O.; Jones, C.; Grundfelt, B.; Skagius, K.; Bengtsson, A.

1992-06-01

Radioactive waste disposal systems for spent nuclear fuel are designed to isolate the radioactive waste from the human environment for long period of time. The isolation is provided by a combination of engineered and natural barriers. Safety assessments are performed to describe and quantify the performance of the individual barriers and the disposal system over long-term periods. These assessments will always be associated with uncertainties. Uncertainties can originate from the variability of natural systems and will also be introduced in the predictive modelling performed to quantitatively evaluate the behaviour of the disposal system as a consequence of the incomplete knowledge about the governing processes. Uncertainties in safety assessments can partly be reduced by additional measurements and research. The aim of this study has been to identify uncertainties in assessments of radiological consequences from the disposal of spent nuclear fuel based on the Swedish KBS-3 concept. The identified uncertainties have been classified with respect to their origin, i.e. in conceptual, modelling and data uncertainties. The possibilities to reduce the uncertainties are also commented upon. In assessments it is important to decrease uncertainties which are of major importance for the performance of the disposal system. These could to some extent be identified by uncertainty analysis. However, conceptual uncertainties and some type of model uncertainties are difficult to evaluate. To be able to decrease uncertainties in conceptual models, it is essential that the processes describing and influencing the radionuclide transport in the engineered and natural barriers are sufficiently understood. In this study a qualitative approach has been used. The importance of different barriers and processes are indicated by their influence on the release of some representative radionuclides. (122 refs.) (au)

Development of information resources package for the Chernobyl accident and its consequences by INIS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Negeri, B.; Tolstenkov, A.; Rieder, S.

2006-01-01

The Chernobyl accident was a global catastrophe that captured global attention and as such literature on the Chernobyl accident and its consequences is an important subject covered by the International Nuclear Information System (INIS) Database. The INIS Database contains about 21000 bibliographic records and 9000 full text documents on this subject from 1986 up to August 2006. Based on these extensive resources INIS released a DVD that contained bibliographic references and full text documents as well a bibliometric study of the Chernobyl references on the occasion of the International Conference entitled 'Chernobyl: Looking Back to Go Forwards' held in Vienna on 6 and 7 September 2005. Subsequently, INIS decided to release Revision 1 of the DVD in August 2006 for the twentieth anniversary of the Chernobyl accident with additional value added information sources. This paper briefly discusses the bibliometric parameters of the references, the contents of DVD and the activities undertaken to produce the Chernobyl information resources package

Collaboration patterns, external shocks and uncertainty: Swiss nuclear energy politics before and after Fukushima

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fischer, Manuel

2015-01-01

Energy shocks like the Fukushima accident can have important political consequences. This article examines their impact on collaboration patterns between collective actors in policy processes. It argues that external shocks create both behavioral uncertainty, meaning that actors do not know about other actors’ preferences, and policy uncertainty on the choice and consequences of policy instruments. The context of uncertainty interacts with classical drivers of actor collaboration in policy processes. The analysis is based on a dataset comprising interview and survey data on political actors in two subsequent policy processes in Switzerland and Exponential Random Graph Models for network data. Results first show that under uncertainty, collaboration of actors in policy processes is less based on similar preferences than in stable contexts, but trust and knowledge of other actors are more important. Second, under uncertainty, scientific actors are not preferred collaboration partners. - Highlights: • Energy shocks create uncertainty in policy processes. • Behavioral and policy uncertainty have influence actors’ collaboration patterns. • Under uncertainty, collaboration is based on trust rather than on similar preferences. • Under uncertainty, scientific actors are not preferred collaboration partners, but are active themselves.

causes and consequences of commercial motorcycle accidents

African Journals Online (AJOL)

PROF EKWUEME

Accident associated with the use of motorcycle for commercial transportation in Makurdi metropolis was ... deaths, over speeding accounted for 27 percent of accidents and deaths respectively, .... 10. 7. 5. (a). (b). Possession of wing mirror and Crash helmet. Yes. No. 12 .... reduce the risk of serious head and brain injuries.

IRSN press briefing on the issue 'Fukushima, one year after': Situation of Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear installations; Accident of the Fukushima Dai-ichi: briefing on the situation in February 2012; The Fukushima 1 accident one year after: assessment of environmental consequences in Japan; assessment of consequences of the Fukushima accident on the environment in Japan, one year after; Health consequences of the Fukushima Dai-ichi: situation briefing in February 2012; Point presse de l'IRSN sur le theme 'Fukushima, un an apres': Situation des installations nucleaires de Fukushima Dai-ichi; Accident survenu a la centrale de Fukushima Dai-Ichi Point de la situation en fevrier 2012; L'accident de Fukushima 1 an apres: bilan des consequences environnementales au Japon; bilan des consequences de l'accident de Fukushima sur l'environnement au Japon, un an apres l'accident; Les consequences sanitaires de l'accident de Fukushima Dai-ichi: point de situation en fevrier 2012

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Charles, T.; Jourdain, Jean-Rene

2012-02-28

This document gathers reports and Power Point presentations (with maps, data tables and graphs) dealing with the Fukushima accident, one year after its occurrence. Different issues are addressed: the status of the nuclear installations, the situation of the installations and of the environment, assessments, measurements and investigations on the effects and consequences of the accident (radioactive releases and fallouts) on the ground and marine environment and on public health

Accidents - Chernobyl accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-01-01

This file is devoted to the Chernobyl accident. It is divided in four parts. The first part concerns the accident itself and its technical management. The second part is relative to the radiation doses and the different contaminations. The third part reports the sanitary effects, the determinists ones and the stochastic ones. The fourth and last part relates the consequences for the other European countries with the case of France. Through the different parts a point is tackled with the measures taken after the accident by the other countries to manage an accident, the cooperation between the different countries and the groups of research and studies about the reactors safety, and also with the international medical cooperation, specially for the children, everything in relation with the Chernobyl accident. (N.C.)

Integrating economy, ecology and uncertainty in an oil-spill DSS: The Prestige accident in Spain, 2002

Science.gov (United States)

Wirtz, Kai W.; Liu, Xin

2006-12-01

Major accidental oil spills still affect sensitive marine areas and shorelines around the world, constituting a challenge for operational as well as strategic contingency management. As a rationale basis for addressing both issues we here propose a Decision Support System (DSS) consisting of a combination of modelling and evaluation methods which in particular assesses various impacts on habitats and local economies. By integrating the state-of-the-art oil spill contingency simulation system OSCAR with wind and current forecasts, environmental GIS data and multi-criteria analysis techniques, the DSS is able to rank different response actions to a chemical or oil spill. In this study, the usefulness of the approach is tested by hindcasting the Prestige accident off the coast of Spain in 2002. In particular, the short- to mid-term economic and ecological consequences of different mitigation measures are estimated. We identified clearly one worst option matching the actual decision taken by the responsible parties and one or two almost equally well performing routes. Two procedures of including uncertainty at various stages of the DSS are tested. The first method averages ensembles of outcomes between each modelling/evaluation stage, while the second one preserves the entire degree of freedom till the final ranking procedure. Results in the Prestige case turned out to be rather insensitive against both ways to account for uncertainties. The robustness as well as clarity of the DSS has the potential to enhance the efficiency of decision making even in politically sensitive situations. Limitations as well as ongoing improvements of the system are highlighted, in particular emphasizing linkages to environmental economics.

Have the consequences of reactor accidents for the population been well assessed? Six questions to the experts in the field

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pohl, Peter

2016-07-15

Six questions to the experts in the field are posed: (1) Why is the assessment of accident consequences not separated in long-term and peak exposure? (2) Why is the exposure due to I-131 seen critical mainly in regard to the thyroid? (3) Do you have any reliable relations of health risk versus peak exposure? (4) Why do you not abolish the LNT assumption and replace it with a threshold model? (5) Why do you include indirect, psycho-somatic effects in assessing the consequences of reactor accidents when this is not customary with accidents with often more casualties? (6) How can the number of Chernobyl-assigned thyroid cancers have risen from some 600 about to some 4,000 today, when the latency period is in the range of 4 to 5 years?.

The Nordic safety program on accident consequence assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tveten, U.

1988-01-01

One important part of Nordic cooperation is partially funded by the Nordic Council of Ministers, namely the work performed within the Nordic Safety Program (often referred to as the NKA projects). NKA is the Nordic abbreviation of the Nordic Liaison Committee on Atomic Energy. One program area in the present four-year period is concerned with problems related to reactor accident consequence assessment, and contains almost twenty projects covering a wide range of subjects. The author is program coordinator for this program area. The program will be completed in 1989. The program was strongly influenced by Chernobyl, and a number of new projects were included in the program in 1986. Involved in the program are these Nordic institutions: Riso National Laboratory (Denmark). Technical Research Centre of Finland. Finnish Centre for Radiation and Nuclear Safety. Finnish Meteorological Institute. Institute for Energy Technology (Norway). Agricultural University of Norway. Meteorological Institute of Norway. Studsvik Energiteknik AB (Sweden). National Defence Research Laboratory (Sweden)

A framework for assessing severe accident management strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kastenberg, W.E.; Apostolakis, G.; Dhir, V.K.; Okrent, D.; Jae, M.; Lim, H.; Milici, T.; Park, H.; Swider, J.; Xing, L.; Yu, D.

1991-01-01

Accident management can be defined as the innovative use of existing and or alternative resources, systems and actions to prevent or mitigate a severe accident. Together with risk management (changes in plant operation and/or addition of equipment) and emergency planning (off-site actions), accident management provides an extension of the defense-in-depth safety philosophy for severe accidents. A significant number of probabilistic safety assessments (PSA) have been completed which yield the principal plant vulnerabilities. For each sequence/threat and each combination of strategy there may be several options available to the operator. Each strategy/option involves phenomenological and operational considerations regarding uncertainty. These considerations include uncertainty in key phenomena, uncertainty in operator behavior, uncertainty in system availability and behavior, and uncertainty in available information (i.e., instrumentation). The objective of this project is to develop a methodology for assessing severe accident management strategies given the key uncertainties mentioned above. Based on Decision Trees and Influence Diagrams, the methodology is currently being applied to two case studies: cavity flooding in a PWR to prevent vessel penetration or failure, and drywell flooding in a BWR to prevent containment failure

Depressurization as an accident management strategy to minimize the consequences of direct containment heating

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hanson, D.J.; Golden, D.W.; Chambers, R.; Miller, J.D.; Hallbert, B.P.; Dobbe, C.A.

1990-10-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) have identified severe accidents for nuclear power plants that have the potential to cause failure of the containment through direct containment heating (DCH). Prevention of DCH or mitigation of its effects may be possible using accident management strategies that intentionally depressurize the reactor coolant system (RCS). The effectiveness of intentional depressurization during a station blackout TMLB' sequence was evaluated considering the phenomenological behavior, hardware performance, and operational performance. Phenomenological behavior was calculated using the SCDAP/RELAP5 severe accident analysis code. Two strategies to mitigate DCH by depressurization of the RCS were considered. One strategy, called early depressurization, assumed that the reactor head vent and pressurizer power-operated relief valves (PORVs) were latched open at steam generator dryout. The second strategy, called late depression, assumed that the head vent and PORVs were latched open at a core exit temperature of ∼922 K (1200 degree F). Depressurization of the RCS to a low value that may mitigate DCH was predicted prior to reactor pressure vessel breach for both early and late depressurization. The strategy of late depressurization is preferred over early depressurization because there are greater opportunities to recover plant functions prior to core damage and because failure uncertainties are lessened. 22 refs., 38 figs., 6 tabs

Depressurization as an accident management strategy to minimize the consequences of direct containment heating

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hanson, D.J.; Golden, D.W.; Chambers, R.; Miller, J.D.; Hallbert, B.P.; Dobbe, C.A. (EG and G Idaho, Inc., Idaho Falls, ID (USA))

1990-10-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) have identified severe accidents for nuclear power plants that have the potential to cause failure of the containment through direct containment heating (DCH). Prevention of DCH or mitigation of its effects may be possible using accident management strategies that intentionally depressurize the reactor coolant system (RCS). The effectiveness of intentional depressurization during a station blackout TMLB' sequence was evaluated considering the phenomenological behavior, hardware performance, and operational performance. Phenomenological behavior was calculated using the SCDAP/RELAP5 severe accident analysis code. Two strategies to mitigate DCH by depressurization of the RCS were considered. One strategy, called early depressurization, assumed that the reactor head vent and pressurizer power-operated relief valves (PORVs) were latched open at steam generator dryout. The second strategy, called late depression, assumed that the head vent and PORVs were latched open at a core exit temperature of {approximately}922 K (1200{degree}F). Depressurization of the RCS to a low value that may mitigate DCH was predicted prior to reactor pressure vessel breach for both early and late depressurization. The strategy of late depressurization is preferred over early depressurization because there are greater opportunities to recover plant functions prior to core damage and because failure uncertainties are lessened. 22 refs., 38 figs., 6 tabs.

Modeling the consequences of hypothetical accidents for the Titan II system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Greenly, G.D.; Sullivan, T.J.

1981-11-01

Calculations have been made with the Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) suite of three-dimensional transport and diffusion codes MATHEW/ADPIC to assess the consequences of severe, hypothetical accident scenarios. One set of calculations develops the integrated dose and surface deposition patterns for a non-nuclear, high explosive detonation and dispersal of material. A second set of calculations depicts the time integrated dose and instantaneous concentration patterns for a substantial, continuous leak of the missile fuel oxidizer converted to nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ). The areas affected and some of the implications for emergency response management are discussed

CARNSORE: Hypothetical reactor accident study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Walmod-Larsen, O.; Jensen, N.O.; Kristensen, L.; Meide, A.; Nedergaard, K.L.; Nielsen, F.; Lundtang Petersen, E.; Petersen, T.; Thykier-Nielsen, S.

1984-06-01

Two types of design-basis accident and a series of hypothetical core-melt accidents to a 600 MWe reactor are described and their consequences assessed. The PLUCON 2 model was used to calculate the consequences which are presented in terms of individual and collective doses, as well as early and late health consequences. The site proposed for the nucelar power station is Carnsore Point, County Wexford, south-east Ireland. The release fractions for the accidents described are those given in WASH-1400. The analyses are based on the resident population as given in the 1979 census and on 20 years of data from the meteorological stations at Rosslare Harbour, 8.5 km north of the site. The consequences of one of the hypothetical core-melt accidents are described in detail in a meteorological parametric study. Likewise the consequences of the worst conceivable combination of situations are described. Finally, the release fraction in one accident is varied and the consequences of a proposed, more probable ''Class 9 accident'' are presented. (author)

Radiological health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Evans, J.S.; Moeller, D.W.

1989-01-01

Improved health effects models have been developed for assessing the early effects, late somatic effects and genetic effects that might result from low-LET radiation exposures to populations following a major accident in a nuclear power plant. All the models have been developed in such a way that the dynamics of population risks can be analyzed. Estimates of life years lost and the duration of illnesses were generated and a framework recommended for summarizing health impacts. Uncertainty is addressed by providing models for upper, central and lower estimates of most effects. The models are believed to be a significant improvement over the models used in the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Reactor Safety Study, and they can easily be modified to reflect advances in scientific understanding of the health effects of ionizing radiation

The Chernobyl accident: Causes and consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Malinauskas, A.P.

1987-01-01

Two explosions, one immediately following the other, in Unit 4 of the Chernobyl nuclear power station in the Soviet Union signaled the worst disaster ever to befall the commercial nuclear power production industry. This accident, which occurred at 1:24 a.m. on April 26, 1986, resulted from an almost incredible series of operational errors associated, ironically, with an attempt to enhance the capability of the reactor to safely accommodate station blackout accidents (i.e., accidents arising from a loss of station electrical power). Disruption of the core, due to a prompt criticality excursion, resulted in the destruction of the core vault and reactor building and the sudden dispersal of about 3% of the fuel from the core region into the environment. Lesser but significant releases of radioactivity continued through May 6, 1986, before attempts to certain the radioactivity and cool the remnants of the core were successful. The amount and composition of material released in the course of the accident remain somewhat uncertain, and inconsistencies in the release estimates are evident. The Soviet estimates, in addition to the dispersal of about 3% of the fuel, include complete release of the noble gas core inventory, 20% of the fission product iodine inventory, 15% of the tellurium inventory, and 10 to 13% of the fission product cesium inventory. The iodine and cesium release estimates are not consistent with the noble gas values, and are as much as a factor of two less than some estimates made by experts outside the Soviet Union

The assessment of environmental consequences of nuclear reactor accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beattie, J.R.

1981-01-01

Thorough measures are taken throughout all stages of design, construction and operation of nuclear power reactors, and therefore no accident producing any significant environmental impact is likely to occur. Nevertheless as a precaution, such accidents have been the subject of intensive scientific predictive studies. After a historical review of theoretical papers on reactor accidents and their imagined environmental impacts and of those accidents that have indeed occurred, this paper gives an outline of fission products or other radioactive substances that may or may not be released by an accident, and of their possible effects after dispersion in the atmosphere. This general introduction is followed by sections describing what are sometimes called 'design basis accidents' for four of the main reactor types (magnox, AGR, PWR and CDFR), the precautions against these accidents and the probable degree of environmental impact likely. The paper concludes with a reference to those very low probability accidents which might have more serious environmental impacts, and proceeds from there to show that both the individual and community risks from such accidents are numerically moderate compared to other risks apparently accepted by society. A brief reflection on the relevance of numerical values and perceived risk concludes the paper. (author)

Overview of core disruptive accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marchaterre, J.F.

1977-01-01

An overview of the analysis of core-disruptive accidents is given. These analyses are for the purpose of understanding and predicting fast reactor behavior in severe low probability accident conditions, to establish the consequences of such conditions and to provide a basis for evaluating consequence limiting design features. The methods are used to analyze core-disruptive accidents from initiating event to complete core disruption, the effects of the accident on reactor structures and the resulting radiological consequences are described

Development of the assessment of nuclear accident consequences and decision support system in China: status, requirement and recommendations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shi Zhongqi; Wang Xingyu

2003-01-01

This paper introduces the status of nuclear accident consequence assessment/development of decision-making support system in China. The basic functions and roles of the consequence assessment/decision-making support system for three levels of nuclear emergency response organization (i.e. national, local offsite and nuclear power plant operator) in China are presented in the paper

Confidence level in the calculations of HCDA consequences using large codes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nguyen, D.H.; Wilburn, N.P.

1979-01-01

The probabilistic approach to nuclear reactor safety is playing an increasingly significant role. For the liquid-metal fast breeder reactor (LMFBR) in particular, the ultimate application of this approach could be to determine the probability of achieving the goal of a specific line-of-assurance (LOA). Meanwhile a more pressing problem is one of quantifying the uncertainty in a calculated consequence for hypothetical core disruptive accident (HCDA) using large codes. Such uncertainty arises from imperfect modeling of phenomenology and/or from inaccuracy in input data. A method is presented to determine the confidence level in consequences calculated by a large computer code due to the known uncertainties in input invariables. A particular application was made to the initial time of pin failure in a transient overpower HCDA calculated by the code MELT-IIIA in order to demonstrate the method. A probability distribution function (pdf) for the time of failure was first constructed, then the confidence level for predicting this failure parameter within a desired range was determined

Application of the accident consequences model of the German risk study to assessments of accident risks in different types of nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ehrhardt, J.; Bayer, A.

1982-01-01

Within the scope of the 'German Risk Study for Nuclear Power Plants' (Phase A) the accident consequence model UFOMOD was developed in the Karlsruhe Nuclear Research Center. This model originally developed for pressurized water reactors has now been extended in order to obtain results about accidental releases of activity from fast breeder and high-temperature reactors, too. (RW) [de

Research on consequence analysis method for probabilistic safety assessment of nuclear fuel facilities (5). Evaluation method and trial evaluation of criticality accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamane, Yuichi; Abe, Hitoshi; Nakajima, Ken; Hayashi, Yoshiaki; Arisawa, Jun; Hayami, Satoru

2010-01-01

A special committee of 'Research on the analysis methods for accident consequence of nuclear fuel facilities (NFFs)' was organized by the Atomic Energy Society of Japan (AESJ) under the entrustment of Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA). The committee aims to research on the state-of-the-art consequence analysis method for the Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) of NFFs, such as fuel reprocessing and fuel fabrication facilities. The objectives of this research are to obtain information useful for establishing quantitative performance objectives and to demonstrate risk-informed regulation through qualifying issues needed to be resolved for applying PSA to NFFs. The research activities of the committee were mainly focused on the consequence analysis method for postulated accidents with potentially large consequences in NFFs, e.g., events of criticality, spill of molten glass, hydrogen explosion, boiling of radioactive solution and fire (including the rapid decomposition of TBP complexes), resulting in the release of radioactive materials to the environment. The results of the research were summarized in a series of six reports, which consist of a review report and five technical ones. In this report, the evaluation methods of criticality accident, such as simplified methods, one-point reactor kinetics codes and quasi-static method, were investigated and their features were summarized to provide information useful for the safety evaluation of NFFs. In addition, several trial evaluations were performed for a hypothetical scenario of criticality accident using the investigated methods, and their results were compared. The release fraction of volatile fission products in a criticality accident was also investigated. (author)

Applications of Probabilistic Consequence Assessment Uncertainty Analysis for Plant Management (invited paper)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boardman, J.; Pearce, K.I.; Ponting, A.C.

2000-01-01

Probabilistic Consequence Assessment (PCA) models describe the dispersion of released radioactive materials and predict the resulting interaction with and influence on the environment and man. Increasing use is being made of PCA tools as an input to the evaluation and improvement of safety for nuclear installations. The nature and extent of the assessment performed varies considerably according to its intended purpose. Nevertheless with the increasing use of such techniques, greater attention has been given to the reliability of the methods used and the inherent uncertainty associated with their predictions. Uncertainty analyses can provide the decision-maker with information to quantify how uncertain the answer is and what drives that uncertainty. They often force a review of the baseline assumptions for any PCA methodology and provide a benchmark against which the impact of further changes in models and recommendations can be compared. This process provides valuable management information to help prioritise further actions or research. (author)

Evaluation of severe accident risks, Grand Gulf, Unit 1: Appendices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brown, T.D.; Breeding, R.J.; Jow, H.N.; Higgins, S.J.; Shiver, A.W.; Helton, J.C.; Amos, C.N.

1990-12-01

In support of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) assessment of the risk from severe accidents at commercial nuclear power plants in the US report in NUREG-1150, the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a revised calculation of the risk to the general public from severe accidents at the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station, Unit 1. This power plant, located in Port Gibson, Mississippi, is operated by the System Energy Resources, Inc. (SERI). The emphasis in this risk analysis was not on determining a ''so-called'' point estimate of risk. Rather, it was to determine the distribution of risk, and to discover the uncertainties that account for the breadth of this distribution. Off-site risk initiated by events internal to the power plant was assessed. This document provides Appendices A through E for this report. Topics included are, respectively: supporting information for the accident progression analysis; supporting information for the source term analysis; supporting information for the consequence analysis; risk results; and sampling information

Evaluation of sanitary consequences of Chernobylsk accident in France. Epidemiological surveillance plan, state of knowledge, risks evaluation and perspectives; Evaluation des consequences sanitaires de l'accident de Tchernobyl en France. Dispositif de surveillance epidemiologique, etat des connaissances, evaluation des risques et perspectives

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Verger, P.; Cherie-Challine, L

2000-12-15

This report jointly written by IPSN and InVS, reviews the sanitary consequences in France of the Chernobyl accident, which occurred in 1986. The first point is dedicated to a short presentation of the knowledge relative to the sanitary consequences of the Chernobyl accident in the high contaminated countries and to the risk factors of the thyroid cancer. Secondly, this report describes the main systems of epidemiological surveillance of health implemented in France in 1986 and in 1999, as well as the data of the incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer observed in France since 1975. In addition, this report presents an analysis of the risk of thyroid cancer related to radioactive contamination in France, for young people of less than 15 years of age who where living in 1986 in the highest contaminated areas of France (Eastern territories). For this purpose, the theoretical number of thyroid cancers in excess is evaluated for this population, on the basis of different available risk model. Finally starting from the results of risk assessment, there is a discussion about the relevance and the feasibility of different epidemiological methods in view of answering the questions related to the sanitary consequences of the Chernobyl accident. In conclusion, this report recommends to reinforce the surveillance of thyroid cancer in France. (author)

Environmental consequences of the Chernobyl accident and their remediation: Twenty years of experience. Report of the Chernobyl Forum Expert Group 'Environment'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-01-01

The explosion on 26 April 1986 at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, which is located 100 km from Kiev in Ukraine (at that time part of the USSR), and the consequent reactor fire, which lasted for 10 days, resulted in an unprecedented release of radioactive material from a nuclear reactor and adverse consequences for the public and the environment. The resulting contamination of the environment with radioactive material caused the evacuation of more than 100 000 people from the affected region during 1986 and the relocation, after 1986, of another 200 000 people from Belarus, the Russian Federation and Ukraine. Some five million people continue to live in areas contaminated by the accident. The national governments of the three affected countries, supported by international organizations, have undertaken costly efforts to remediate the areas affected by the contamination, provide medical services and restore the region's social and economic well-being. The accident's consequences were not limited to the territories of Belarus, the Russian Federation and Ukraine, since other European countries were also affected as a result of the atmospheric transfer of radioactive material. These countries also encountered problems in the radiation protection of their populations, but to a lesser extent than the three most affected countries. Although the accident occurred nearly two decades ago, controversy still surrounds the real impact of the disaster. Therefore the IAEA, in cooperation with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR), the World Health Organization (WHO) and the World Bank, as well as the competent authorities of Belarus, the Russian Federation and Ukraine, established the

Evaluation of sanitary consequences of Chernobyl accident in France: epidemiological monitoring device, state of knowledge, evaluation of risks and perspectives; Evaluation des consequences sanitaires de l'accident de Tchernobyl en France: dispositif de surveillance epidemiologique, etat des connaissances, evaluation des risques et perspectives

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Verger, P.; Champion, D.; Gourmelon, P.; Hubert, Ph.; Joly, J.; Renaud, Ph.; Tirmarche, M.; Vidal, M. [CEA/Fontenay-aux-Roses, Inst. de Protection et de Surete Nucleaire, IPSN, 92 (France); Cherie-Challine, L.; Boutou, O.; Isnard, H.; Jouan, M.; Pirard, Ph. [Institut National de Veille Sanitaire, 94 - Saint-Maurice (France)

2000-12-01

The objectives of this document are firstly, to present the situation of knowledge both on the sanitary consequences of the Chernobyl accident and on the risk factors of thyroid cancers, these ones constituting one of the most principal consequences observed in Belarus, in Ukraine and Russia; secondly, the give the principal system contributing to the epidemiological surveillance of effects coming from a exposure to ionizing radiations, in France and to give the knowledge on incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer in France; thirdly, to discuss the pertinence and the feasibility of epidemiological approaches that could be considered to answer questions that the public and authorities ask relatively to the sanitary consequences of Chernobyl accident in France; fourthly to male a calculation of thyroid cancer risk in relation with Chernobyl fallout in France from works and studies made from 1986 on the consequences of this disaster in terms of radioecology and dosimetry at the national level. Besides, the improvement of thyroid cancer surveillance is also tackled. (N.C.)

Learning lessons from Natech accidents - the eNATECH accident database

Science.gov (United States)

Krausmann, Elisabeth; Girgin, Serkan

2016-04-01

When natural hazards impact industrial facilities that house or process hazardous materials, fires, explosions and toxic releases can occur. This type of accident is commonly referred to as Natech accident. In order to prevent the recurrence of accidents or to better mitigate their consequences, lessons-learned type studies using available accident data are usually carried out. Through post-accident analysis, conclusions can be drawn on the most common damage and failure modes and hazmat release paths, particularly vulnerable storage and process equipment, and the hazardous materials most commonly involved in these types of accidents. These analyses also lend themselves to identifying technical and organisational risk-reduction measures that require improvement or are missing. Industrial accident databases are commonly used for retrieving sets of Natech accident case histories for further analysis. These databases contain accident data from the open literature, government authorities or in-company sources. The quality of reported information is not uniform and exhibits different levels of detail and accuracy. This is due to the difficulty of finding qualified information sources, especially in situations where accident reporting by the industry or by authorities is not compulsory, e.g. when spill quantities are below the reporting threshold. Data collection has then to rely on voluntary record keeping often by non-experts. The level of detail is particularly non-uniform for Natech accident data depending on whether the consequences of the Natech event were major or minor, and whether comprehensive information was available for reporting. In addition to the reporting bias towards high-consequence events, industrial accident databases frequently lack information on the severity of the triggering natural hazard, as well as on failure modes that led to the hazmat release. This makes it difficult to reconstruct the dynamics of the accident and renders the development of

Social and psychological consequences of the Chernobyl accident in Yugoslavia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Milanovic, S; Pavlovic, S [Institute of Nuclear Sciences Vinca, Belgrade (Yugoslavia)

1997-09-01

A day before the accident in Chernobyl, Yugoslavia was the country with nuclear energy programme, one nuclear power plant and strong affiliation towards nuclear fuel cycle. Public relation programs did not existed. The majority of information were classified and public trust was almost undisturbed. It was almost possible to say that the public attitude was indifferent. A month later everything was quite different. The public has been awaken from sleepy unconscious. The public reaction moved from surprise, interest and hunger for information to chronic suspicion. In years later phobic and radiophonic reaction become common place. The final consequence today is huge magnifying lens of public eye, watching carefully everything connected with radiation, even trivial matters, and thus forming strong pressure to decision makers. 2 refs.

Social and psychological consequences of the Chernobyl accident in Yugoslavia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Milanovic, S.; Pavlovic, S.

1997-01-01

A day before the accident in Chernobyl, Yugoslavia was the country with nuclear energy programme, one nuclear power plant and strong affiliation towards nuclear fuel cycle. Public relation programs did not existed. The majority of information were classified and public trust was almost undisturbed. It was almost possible to say that the public attitude was indifferent. A month later everything was quite different. The public has been awaken from sleepy unconscious. The public reaction moved from surprise, interest and hunger for information to chronic suspicion. In years later phobic and radiophonic reaction become common place. The final consequence today is huge magnifying lens of public eye, watching carefully everything connected with radiation, even trivial matters, and thus forming strong pressure to decision makers

An uncertainty analysis of the hydrogen source term for a station blackout accident in Sequoyah using MELCOR 1.8.5

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gauntt, Randall O.; Bixler, Nathan E.; Wagner, Kenneth Charles.

2014-03-01

A methodology for using the MELCOR code with the Latin Hypercube Sampling method was developed to estimate uncertainty in various predicted quantities such as hydrogen generation or release of fission products under severe accident conditions. In this case, the emphasis was on estimating the range of hydrogen sources in station blackout conditions in the Sequoyah Ice Condenser plant, taking into account uncertainties in the modeled physics known to affect hydrogen generation. The method uses user-specified likelihood distributions for uncertain model parameters, which may include uncertainties of a stochastic nature, to produce a collection of code calculations, or realizations, characterizing the range of possible outcomes. Forty MELCOR code realizations of Sequoyah were conducted that included 10 uncertain parameters, producing a range of in-vessel hydrogen quantities. The range of total hydrogen produced was approximately 583kg 131kg. Sensitivity analyses revealed expected trends with respected to the parameters of greatest importance, however, considerable scatter in results when plotted against any of the uncertain parameters was observed, with no parameter manifesting dominant effects on hydrogen generation. It is concluded that, with respect to the physics parameters investigated, in order to further reduce predicted hydrogen uncertainty, it would be necessary to reduce all physics parameter uncertainties similarly, bearing in mind that some parameters are inherently uncertain within a range. It is suspected that some residual uncertainty associated with modeling complex, coupled and synergistic phenomena, is an inherent aspect of complex systems and cannot be reduced to point value estimates. The probabilistic analyses such as the one demonstrated in this work are important to properly characterize response of complex systems such as severe accident progression in nuclear power plants.

Application of GIS in prediction and assessment system of off-site accident consequence for NPP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Xingyu; Shi Zhongqi

2002-01-01

The assessment and prediction software system of off-site accident consequence for Guangdong Nuclear Power Plant (GNARD2.0) is a GIS-based software system. The spatial analysis of radioactive materials and doses with geographic information is available in this system. The structure and functions of the GNARD system and the method of applying ArcView GIS are presented

Results and tasks of the implementation of federal target programs aimed at overcoming the consequences of radiation accidents and catastrophes in the Russian Federation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gerasimova, N.V.

2002-01-01

Major results are presented on the implementation of federal target programs on overcoming the consequences of the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, radiation accidents and incidents at the 'Mayak' Industrial Association, nuclear tests at the Semipalatinsk test site in the period of 1992-2000. The status of the standards and legislation regulating the activities aimed at population protection and rehabilitation of territories is analyzed. The current state of the problem is evaluated. The proposals are laid down for major directions of the state policy of the Russian Federation in overcoming the consequences of radiation accidents for the period until 2010, and the outlook for the efforts in the above domain and the above period is given. About 130 thousand square kilometers of the territories of 20 Russian Federation subjects with a population of around 4 million people were affected by accidents at nuclear fuel cycle sites/facilities, and nuclear and hydrogen weapons tests. The accidents entailed a host of grave radioecological, medical, demographic, and socio-economic consequences, exerted a significant unfavorable impact upon the socio-economic development of the affected territories. (author)

Synthesis of the models used in France for the evaluation of the consequences of accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crabol, B.

1992-01-01

In order to evaluate the consequences of an atmospheric release in case of an accident on a nuclear installation, different predictive models have been developed by the organizations involved in the management of the crisis. These models are of different numerical complexity: precalculated graphs, gaussian puff models or 3D models. The harmonization of these models, the definition of their use, notably in the first phases of the accident (predictive and real-time phases) have been discussed in a working group including representants of the utility, the safety authorities and the Meteorological Office. The reflexions of the group, the models already operational, those still under discussion and their use in the different technical crisis centers are presented

Preliminary results of consequence assessment of a hypothetical severe accident using Thai meteorological data

Science.gov (United States)

Silva, K.; Lawawirojwong, S.; Promping, J.

2017-06-01

Consequence assessment of a hypothetical severe accident is one of the important elements of the risk assessment of a nuclear power plant. It is widely known that the meteorological conditions can significantly influence the outcomes of such assessment, since it determines the results of the calculation of the radionuclide environmental transport. This study aims to assess the impacts of the meteorological conditions to the results of the consequence assessment. The consequence assessment code, OSCAAR, of Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) is used for the assessment. The results of the consequence assessment using Thai meteorological data are compared with those using Japanese meteorological data. The Thai case has following characteristics. Low wind speed made the radionuclides concentrate at the center comparing to the Japanese case. The squalls induced the peaks in the ground concentration distribution. The evacuated land is larger than the Japanese case though the relocated land is smaller, which is attributed to the concentration of the radionuclides near the release point.

Consequences of the Chernobyl reactor accident with respect to the feeding of infants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmidt, E.

1987-01-01

In view of the persisting and understandable fear of parents with regard to radioactivity in the food of their babies as a consequence of the Chernobyl reactor accident, the Commission on Nutrition of the Deutsche Gesellschaft fuer Kinderheilkunde (German Society of Pediatrics) and the Strahlenschutzkommission have published a statement. According to this statement, the maximum permissible level of radioactivity in commercial baby food has been fixed by the EC to be 370 Bq/kg. The dietetic food industry itself has fixed a maximum for its products which is only a tenth of the radioactivity level permitted by the EC directive. The milk powders for infants tested since the reactor accident contained no measurable radioactivity or only very low amounts of Cs 134 or Cs 137, correspondung to a maximum of 25 Bq/kg in the product. Late damage to health is not to be expected. (orig./ECB) [de

Evaluation of sanitary consequences of Chernobylsk accident in France. Epidemiological surveillance plan, state of knowledge, risks evaluation and perspectives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Verger, P.; Cherie-Challine, L.

2000-12-01

This report jointly written by IPSN and InVS, reviews the sanitary consequences in France of the Chernobyl accident, which occurred in 1986. The first point is dedicated to a short presentation of the knowledge relative to the sanitary consequences of the Chernobyl accident in the high contaminated countries and to the risk factors of the thyroid cancer. Secondly, this report describes the main systems of epidemiological surveillance of health implemented in France in 1986 and in 1999, as well as the data of the incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer observed in France since 1975. In addition, this report presents an analysis of the risk of thyroid cancer related to radioactive contamination in France, for young people of less than 15 years of age who where living in 1986 in the highest contaminated areas of France (Eastern territories). For this purpose, the theoretical number of thyroid cancers in excess is evaluated for this population, on the basis of different available risk model. Finally starting from the results of risk assessment, there is a discussion about the relevance and the feasibility of different epidemiological methods in view of answering the questions related to the sanitary consequences of the Chernobyl accident. In conclusion, this report recommends to reinforce the surveillance of thyroid cancer in France. (author)

Genetic consequences of the Chernobyl accident for Belarus republic

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lazjuk, G.; Nikolaev, D.; Novikova, I.; Satow, Yukio

1998-01-01

various uncertainties. Only direct methods, which count the final effect, with all their drawbacks, can provide accurate information on genetic losses. We have estimated possible genetic consequences for the residents of Belarus Republic due to the Chernobyl accident by studying malformations found in legal medical abortuses and by counting congenital anomalies in fetuses and newborns. (J.P.N.)

Genetic consequences of the Chernobyl accident for Belarus republic

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lazjuk, G.; Nikolaev, D.; Novikova, I. [Belarus Institute for Hereditary Diseases, Minsk (Belarus); Satow, Yukio

1998-03-01

various uncertainties. Only direct methods, which count the final effect, with all their drawbacks, can provide accurate information on genetic losses. We have estimated possible genetic consequences for the residents of Belarus Republic due to the Chernobyl accident by studying malformations found in legal medical abortuses and by counting congenital anomalies in fetuses and newborns. (J.P.N.)

The Chernobyl accident 20 years on: an assessment of the health consequences and the international response O acidente de Chernobyl 20 anos depois: avaliação das conseqüências e resposta internacional

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Keith Baverstock

2007-06-01

Full Text Available Twenty years after the Chernobyl accident the WHO and the International Atomic Energy Authority issued a reassuring statement about the consequences. Our objectives in this study were to evaluate the health impact of the Chernobyl accident, assess the international response to the accident, and consider how to improve responses to future accidents. So far, radiation to the thyroid from radioisotopes of iodine has caused several thousand cases of thyroid cancer but very few deaths; exposed children were most susceptible. The focus on thyroid cancer has diverted attention from possible nonthyroid effects. The international response to the accident was inadequate and uncoordinated, and has been unjustifiably reassuring. Accurate assessment in future health effects is not currently possible in the light of dose uncertainties, current debates over radiation actions, and the lessons from the late consequences of atomic bomb exposure. Because of the uncertainties from and the consequences of the accident, it is essential that investigations of its effects should be broadened and supported for the long term. The United Nations should initiate an independent review of the actions and assignments of the agencies concerned, with recommendations for dealing with future international-scale accidents. These should involve independent scientists and ensure cooperation rather than rivalry.Vinte anos após o acidente de Chernobyl ocorrido em 1986, a OMS e a Autoridade Internacional sobre Energia Atômica lançaram um relatório sobre as conseqüências desse desastre. Nosso objetivo neste estudo é avaliar o impacto de tal acidente sobre a saúde e a reação internacional sobre o ocorrido, além de considerar se é possível melhorar as respostas em futuros desastres. Observamos que a radiação sobre a tireóide, proveniente de radioisótopos de iodo, causou milhares de casos de câncer, mas poucas mortes; as crianças expostas foram as mais suscetíveis. O

Environmental consequences of the Chernobyl accident and their remediation: Twenty years of experience. Report of the Chernobyl Forum Expert Group 'Environment'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

The explosion on 26 April 1986 at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, which is located 100 km from Kiev in Ukraine (at that time part of the USSR), and the consequent reactor fire, which lasted for 10 days, resulted in an unprecedented release of radioactive material from a nuclear reactor and adverse consequences for the public and the environment. The resulting contamination of the environment with radioactive material caused the evacuation of more than 100 000 people from the affected region during 1986 and the relocation, after 1986, of another 200 000 people from Belarus, the Russian Federation and Ukraine. Some five million people continue to live in areas contaminated by the accident. The national governments of the three affected countries, supported by international organizations, have undertaken costly efforts to remediate the areas affected by the contamination, ... >> The explosion on 26 April 1986 at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, which is located 100 km from Kiev in Ukraine (at that time part of the USSR), and the consequent reactor fire, which lasted for 10 days, resulted in an unprecedented release of radioactive material from a nuclear reactor and adverse consequences for the public and the environment. The resulting contamination of the environment with radioactive material caused the evacuation of more than 100 000 people from the affected region during 1986 and the relocation, after 1986, of another 200 000 people from Belarus, the Russian Federation and Ukraine. Some five million people continue to live in areas contaminated by the accident. The national governments of the three affected countries, supported by international organizations, have undertaken costly efforts to remediate the areas affected by the contamination, provide medical services and restore the region's social and economic well-being. The accident's consequences were not limited to the territories of Belarus, the Russian Federation and Ukraine, since other European

Evaluation of sanitary consequences of Chernobyl accident in France: epidemiological monitoring device, state of knowledge, evaluation of risks and perspectives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Verger, P.; Champion, D.; Gourmelon, P.; Hubert, Ph.; Joly, J.; Renaud, Ph.; Tirmarche, M.; Vidal, M.; Cherie-Challine, L.; Boutou, O.; Isnard, H.; Jouan, M.; Pirard, Ph.

2000-12-01

The objectives of this document are firstly, to present the situation of knowledge both on the sanitary consequences of the Chernobyl accident and on the risk factors of thyroid cancers, these ones constituting one of the most principal consequences observed in Belarus, in Ukraine and Russia; secondly, the give the principal system contributing to the epidemiological surveillance of effects coming from a exposure to ionizing radiations, in France and to give the knowledge on incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer in France; thirdly, to discuss the pertinence and the feasibility of epidemiological approaches that could be considered to answer questions that the public and authorities ask relatively to the sanitary consequences of Chernobyl accident in France; fourthly to male a calculation of thyroid cancer risk in relation with Chernobyl fallout in France from works and studies made from 1986 on the consequences of this disaster in terms of radioecology and dosimetry at the national level. Besides, the improvement of thyroid cancer surveillance is also tackled. (N.C.)

The Generic Containment SB-LOCA accident simulation: Comparison of the parameter uncertainties and user-effect

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Povilaitis, Mantas; Kelm, Stephan; Urbonavičius, Egidijus

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for the Generic Containment severe accident. • Comparison of the analysis results with the uncertainties based in the user effect. • Demonstration of the similar importance of both the reducing the user effect and input uncertainties. - Abstract: Uncertainties in safety assessment of the nuclear power plants using computer codes come from several sources: choice of computer code, user effect (a strong impact of user choices on the simulation’s outcome) and uncertainty of various physical parameters. The “Generic Containment” activity was performed in the frames of the EU-FP7 project SARNET2 to investigate the influence of user effect and computer code choice on the results on the nuclear power plant scale. During this activity, a Generic Containment nodalisation was developed and used for exercise by the participants applying various computer codes. Even though the model of the Generic Containment and the transient scenario were precisely and uniquely defined, considerably different results were obtained not only among different codes but also among participants using the same code, showing significant influence of the user effect. This paper present analysis, which is an extension of the “Generic Containment” benchmark and investigates the effect of input parameter’s uncertainties in comparison to the user effect. Calculations were performed using the computer code ASTEC, the uncertainty and sensitivity of the results were estimated using GRS method and tool SUSA. The results of the present analysis show, that while there are differences between the uncertainty bands of the parameters, in general the deviation bands caused by parameters’ uncertainty and the user effect are comparable and of the same order. The properties of concrete and the surface areas may have more influence on containment pressure than the user effect and choice of computer code as identified in the SARNET2 Generic

Joint USNRC/EC consequence uncertainty study: The ingestion pathway, dosimetry and health effects expert judgment elicitations and results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harper, F.; Goossens, L.; Abbott, M.

1996-01-01

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) and the European Commission (EC) have conducted a formal expert judgment elicitation jointly to systematically collect the quantitative information needed to perform consequence uncertainty analyses on a broad set of commercial nuclear power plants. Information from three sets of joint US/European expert panels was collected and processed. Information from the three sets of panels was collected in the following areas: in the phenomenological areas of atmospheric dispersion and deposition, in the areas of ingestion pathways and external dosimetry, and in the areas of health effects and internal dosimetry. This exercise has demonstrated that the uncertainty for particular issues as measured by the ratio of the 95th percentile to the 5th percentile can be extremely large (orders of magnitude), or rather small (factor of two). This information has already been used by many of the experts that were involved in this process in areas other than the consequence uncertainty field. The benefit to the field of radiological consequences is just beginning as the results of this study are published and made available to the consequence community

Consequences of the Chernobyl accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gerzabek, M.H.

1990-10-01

A collection of three papers about the fallout in Austria from the 1986 Chernobyl reactor accident is given: 1. An overview of the research projects in Austria; 2. On the transfer into and uptake by crops and animal fodder; 3. On the reduction of cesium concentration in food. 18 tabs., 21 figs., 69 refs

Chernobyl accident: Causes, consequences and problems of radiation measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kortov, V.; Ustyantsev, Yu.

2013-01-01

General description of Chernobyl accident is given in the review. The accident causes are briefly described. Special attention is paid to radiation situation after the accident and radiation measurements problems. Some data on Chernobyl disaster are compared with the corresponding data on Fukushima accident. It is noted that Chernobyl and Fukushima lessons should be taken into account while developing further measures on raising nuclear industry safety. -- Highlights: ► The short comparative analysis of accidents at Chernobyl and Fukushima is given. ► We note the great effect of β-radiation on the radiation situation at Chernobyl. ► We discuss the problems of radiation measurements under these conditions. ► The impact of shelter on the radiation situation near Chernobyl NPS is described

Domino effect in chemical accidents: main features and accident sequences

OpenAIRE

Casal Fàbrega, Joaquim; Darbra Roman, Rosa Maria

2010-01-01

The main features of domino accidents in process/storage plants and in the transportation of hazardous materials were studied through an analysis of 225 accidents involving this effect. Data on these accidents, which occurred after 1961, were taken from several sources. Aspects analyzed included the accident scenario, the type of accident, the materials involved, the causes and consequences and the most common accident sequences. The analysis showed that the most frequent causes a...

Hazardous waste transportation risk assessment: Benefits of a combined deterministic and probabilistic Monte Carlo approach in expressing risk uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Policastro, A.J.; Lazaro, M.A.; Cowen, M.A.; Hartmann, H.M.; Dunn, W.E.; Brown, D.F.

1995-01-01

This paper presents a combined deterministic and probabilistic methodology for modeling hazardous waste transportation risk and expressing the uncertainty in that risk. Both the deterministic and probabilistic methodologies are aimed at providing tools useful in the evaluation of alternative management scenarios for US Department of Energy (DOE) hazardous waste treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD). The probabilistic methodology can be used to provide perspective on and quantify uncertainties in deterministic predictions. The methodology developed has been applied to 63 DOE shipments made in fiscal year 1992, which contained poison by inhalation chemicals that represent an inhalation risk to the public. Models have been applied to simulate shipment routes, truck accident rates, chemical spill probabilities, spill/release rates, dispersion, population exposure, and health consequences. The simulation presented in this paper is specific to trucks traveling from DOE sites to their commercial TSD facilities, but the methodology is more general. Health consequences are presented as the number of people with potentially life-threatening health effects. Probabilistic distributions were developed (based on actual item data) for accident release amounts, time of day and season of the accident, and meteorological conditions

Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Evans, J.S.; Abrahmson, S.; Bender, M.A.; Boecker, B.B.; Scott, B.R.; Gilbert, E.S.

1993-10-01

This report is a revision of NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 1 (1990), Health Effects Models for Nuclear Power Plant Accident Consequence Analysis. This revision has been made to incorporate changes to the Health Effects Models recommended in two addenda to the NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 11, 1989 report. The first of these addenda provided recommended changes to the health effects models for low-LET radiations based on recent reports from UNSCEAR, ICRP and NAS/NRC (BEIR V). The second addendum presented changes needed to incorporate alpha-emitting radionuclides into the accident exposure source term. As in the earlier version of this report, models are provided for early and continuing effects, cancers and thyroid nodules, and genetic effects. Weibull dose-response functions are recommended for evaluating the risks of early and continuing health effects. Three potentially lethal early effects -- the hematopoietic, pulmonary, and gastrointestinal syndromes are considered. Linear and linear-quadratic models are recommended for estimating the risks of seven types of cancer in adults - leukemia, bone, lung, breast, gastrointestinal, thyroid, and ''other''. For most cancers, both incidence and mortality are addressed. Five classes of genetic diseases -- dominant, x-linked, aneuploidy, unbalanced translocations, and multifactorial diseases are also considered. Data are provided that should enable analysts to consider the timing and severity of each type of health risk

Big nuclear accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marshall, W.; Billingon, D.E.; Cameron, R.F.; Curl, S.J.

1983-09-01

Much of the debate on the safety of nuclear power focuses on the large number of fatalities that could, in theory, be caused by extremely unlikely but just imaginable reactor accidents. This, along with the nuclear industry's inappropriate use of vocabulary during public debate, has given the general public a distorted impression of the risks of nuclear power. The paper reviews the way in which the probability and consequences of big nuclear accidents have been presented in the past and makes recommendations for the future, including the presentation of the long-term consequences of such accidents in terms of 'loss of life expectancy', 'increased chance of fatal cancer' and 'equivalent pattern of compulsory cigarette smoking'. The paper presents mathematical arguments, which show the derivation and validity of the proposed methods of presenting the consequences of imaginable big nuclear accidents. (author)

Review, analysis and report on the radiological consequences resulting from accidents and incidents involving radioactive materials during transport in the period 1975-1986 by and within member states of the european communities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lombard, J.; Ringot, C.; Tomachevsky, E.; Hughes, J.S.; Shaw, K.B.

1990-01-01

Radioactive materials are routinely transported throughout the European Communities, by all modes of transport. These shipments occur in accordance with comprehensive regulations and the vast majority of these shipments are made without incident. Occasionally however accidents and other incidents have occurred at various stages of transport operations and the purpose of this study was to examine the available information on events that occurred within the Communities during the years 1975 to 1986. The information was gathered from Member States' Competent Authorities and other organisations, using a questionnaire. Most of the detailed information came from the two countries carrying out the study, the UK and France. The information gathered covered many different types of event involving a wide range of materials: it is concluded that under-reporting is a major source of uncertainty in the results. Therefore, it is emphasised that care should be used in comparisons between the results for different types of transport operations, since accidents and incidents involving certain types of transport are more fully reported than others. Consequently, the authors stress the need for improved reporting and recording procedures. No evidence was found of any major health consequences resulting from the accidents and incidents studied. However, there were instances of high doses having been received by workers, mainly as a result of inadequate preparation of packages prior to despatch. These events point to the need to maintain high standards of quality assurance at all stages of transport operations

Evaluation of postpone Ch NPP accident consequences. Health state of children born in families of cleaners taking part in the Chernobyl accident consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koretskaya, L.S.; Kornesku, A.V.; Koretskaya, L.I.; Moldovanu, M.; Samotyya, E.E.; Etsko, L.A.

2009-01-01

The analysis of the results of the medical investigation during 1996-2008 years of the health of the about 200 children (107 girls, 115 boys 5-17 years old), which parents took part in liquidation of C NPP accident have been performed. Clinical, immunological disturbance and increased chromosome mutagenesis intensity in somatic cells of the investigated children gave reason to classify them among those with the increased risk of probability of the pathology with genetic component. This may be considerate as a well founded conclusion for elaboration of separated registry of the children born in families of liquidators. The immunological disturbance of children probably reflects the disturbance of the differential processes and maturity of cells of thymus and can be the consequences of the factors influence related with the clinic pathologies. The results permitted to select the group for feature cytogenesis and clinic investigations (authors)

Experience in Russia on information and analytical support of activities associated with recovering of radiation accidents consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Linge, I.I.

2003-01-01

Full text: In spite of substantial practical experience on population protection against radiation that was obtained in the USSR by the moment of the Chernobyl accident it was not possible to implement it most efficiently because of institutional disconnection. Strong necessity of serious coordination of activities an accident consequences liquidation in the scale of the country became obvious by the end of 1980s. In 1990, a decision on a unique program on the Chernobyl accident consequences liquidation was taken. This program, in particular, provided for systematic analytical support of actions an accident consequences implementation. The present report describes the basic decisions on information support of the SU government bodies that were partly realized in 1991 and further developed in the following years. Since 1991, Goscomchernobyl of Russia and, since 1994, EMERCOM of Russia is the Federal body on the consequences minimization. Since 1991 till now, the information system UIS Chernobyl is functioning in the framework of the body. The system includes the Central bank of generalized data (CBGD) and appropriate software. Purposes, structure and contents of CBGD are described in detail in the report. One of the section of CBGD includes data on radiation hygienic characteristics of more then 10,000 settlements in Russia. UIS Chernobyl is the basis for objective estimation of a situation at contaminated after the Chernobyl accident territories, state programs construction, forecasts and preparation of national reports. Systematic data on radiation hygienic situation analysis indicates that the protective measures complex realized in Russia allowed decreasing population irradiation to the large extent. It is necessary to note that the majority of protective measures exhausted their efficiency far ago. For example, spending on the preventing of 1 man/Sv of collective dose in realization of such action as restriction and control of locally produced food in most

Development of environmental consequence index (ECI) using fuzzy composite programming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arunraj, N.S.; Maiti, J.

2009-01-01

Estimation of environmental consequences of hazardous substances in chemical industries is a very difficult task owing to (i) diversity in the types of hazards and their effects, (ii) location, and (ii) uncertainty in input information. Several indices have been developed over the years to estimate the environmental consequences. In this paper, a critical literature review was done on the existing environmental indices to identify their applications and limitations. The existing indices lack in consideration of all environmental consequence factors such as material hazard factors, dispersion factors, environmental effects, and their uncertainty. A new methodology is proposed for the development of environmental consequence index (ECI), which can overcome the stated limitations. Moreover, the recently developed fuzzy composite programming (FCP) is used to take care of the uncertainty in estimation. ECI is applied to benzene extraction unit (BEU) of a petrochemical industry situated in eastern part of India. The ECI for all the eight sections of BEU are estimated and ranked. The results are compared with well-established indices such as Dow fire and explosion index, safety weight hazard index (SWeHI), and environmental accident index (EAI). The proposed ECI may outperform other indices based on its detailed consideration of the factors and performed equally to Dow F and E index, and EAI in most of the cases for the present application

Summary and conclusions of the specialist meeting on severe accident management programme development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-01-01

The CSNI Specialist meeting on severe accident management programme development was held in Rome and about seventy experts from thirteen countries attended the meeting. A total of 27 papers were presented in four sessions, covering specific aspects of accident management programme development. It purposely focused on the programmatic aspects of accident management rather than on some of the more complex technical issues associated with accident management strategies. Some of the major observations and conclusions from the meeting are that severe accident management is the ultimate part of the defense in depth concept within the plant. It is function and success oriented, not event oriented, as the aim is to prevent or minimize consequences of severe accidents. There is no guarantee it will always be successful but experts agree that it can reduce the risks significantly. It has to be exercised and the importance of emergency drills has been underlined. The basic structure and major elements of accident management programmes appear to be similar among OECD member countries. Dealing with significant phenomenological uncertainties in establishing accident management programmes continues to be an important issue, especially in confirming the appropriateness of specific accident management strategies

Nuclear accidents at the Fukushima Dai-ichi power plant. History, events and consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berniolles, Jean Marc

2011-01-01

Written few weeks after the accident, this article first recalls the circumstances (earthquake and tsunami), and then describes the accidental process within the primary vessels of the Fukushima Dai-ichi number 1, 2 and 3 reactors. The author then describes the interventions which aimed at cooling these three reactors, the problem faced for the storage of used fuels, and then the sequence of accidents: loss of cooling means leading to an explosion, problems faced in the different storage pools. He describes the various steps of recovery (primary cooling, electricity supply), discusses the consequences in terms of radioactivity releases in the plant environment with a comparison with Chernobyl, and also in terms of nature and quantity of radioactive elements. He comments radioactivity controls and measurements, evacuation measures, measurements performed by the IAEA, measurements of sea radioactivity, and the establishment of maps of ground radioactivity around the plant. He discusses the perspectives associated with these measurements for the surroundings of the Fukushima site

Immediate medical consequences of nuclear accidents: lessons from Chernobyl

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gale, R.P.

1987-01-01

The immediate medical response to the nuclear accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power station involved containment of the radioactivity and evacuation of the nearby population. The next step consisted of assessment of the radiation dose received by individuals, based on biological dosimetry, and treatment of those exposed. Medical care involved treatment of skin burns; measures to support bone marrow failure, gastrointestinal tract injury, and other organ damage (i.e., infection prophylaxis and transfusions) for those with lower radiation dose exposure; and bone marrow transplantation for those exposed to a high dose of radiation. At Chernobyl, two victims died immediately and 29 died of radiation or thermal injuries in the next three months. The remaining victims of the accident are currently well. A nuclear accident anywhere is a nuclear accident everywhere. Prevention and cooperation in response to these accidents are essential goals

Accident consequence analysis models applied to licensing process of nuclear installations, radioactive and conventional industries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Senne Junior, Murillo; Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Jordao, Elizabete

2002-01-01

The industrial accidents happened in the last years, particularly in the eighty's decade, had contributed in a significant way to call the attention to government authorities, industry and society as a whole, demanding mechanisms for preventing episodes that could affect people's safety and environment quality. Techniques and methods already thoroughly used in the nuclear, aeronautic and war industries were then adapted for performing analysis and evaluation of the risks associated to other industrial activities, especially in the petroleum, chemistry and petrochemical areas. Some models for analyzing the consequences of accidents involving fire and explosion, used in the licensing processes of nuclear and radioactive facilities, are presented in this paper. These models have also application in the licensing of conventional industrial facilities. (author)

Source term and radiological consequence evaluation for nuclear accidents using a 'hand type' methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Margeanu, Sorin; Tatiana, Angelescu

2005-01-01

In the last decades, hand type calculations have been replaced by computerized solutions, which are much more accurate, but the preparation of an input to run the code can be a time consuming process and can require a laborious work. This is why, a place for hand calculation based on nomograms still exist in some areas. An example is emergency response to an accidental release of radioactive contaminants when the health of persons close to the accident site might be at risk. In this case, results from computerized accident consequences assessment models may be delayed due to the equipment malfunction or the time required developing minimal input files and performing the calculations (typically more than five minutes). A simple nomogram (developed using computerized dispersion model calculations) can provide dispersion and dose estimates within a minute. The paper presents the methodology used for these 'hand type' calculation and the nomograms, figures and tables used to evaluate the dose to an individual close to the release point. In order to illustrate the use of methodology, a hypothetical severe accident scenario involving 14-MW INR-TRIGA research reactor was considered. (authors)

Estimation of the Radiological Consequences of Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident using MACCS2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Sora; Min, Byung-Il; Park, Kihyun; Yang, Byung-Mo; Suh, Kyung-suk [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-10-15

Three of them have undergone fuel melting and hydrogen explosions. A significant amount of radioactive material was released into the atmosphere from FDNPP and dispersed all over the world. In this study, we assessed the offsite consequences of Fukushima disaster in the region within a 30-km radius of FDNPP using the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code Systems 2(MACCS2) code, which is the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) code. The reflection of the realistic regional characteristics, such as long-term meteorological data, site- and population-specific data, and radiation safety regulatory, is essential to accurately analyze the off-site consequences. The assessment that reflects regional characteristics would contribute to identify main causes of exposure doses and to find the effective countermeasures for minimizing the accidental off-site consequences.

A framework for the assessment of severe accident management strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kastenberg, W.E.; Apostolakis, G.; Dhir, V.K.

1993-09-01

Severe accident management can be defined as the use of existing and/or altemative resources, systems and actors to prevent or mitigate a core-melt accident. For each accident sequence and each combination of severe accident management strategies, there may be several options available to the operator, and each involves phenomenological and operational considerations regarding uncertainty. Operational uncertainties include operator, system and instrumentation behavior during an accident. A framework based on decision trees and influence diagrams has been developed which incorporates such criteria as feasibility, effectiveness, and adverse effects, for evaluating potential severe accident management strategies. The framework is also capable of propagating both data and model uncertainty. It is applied to several potential strategies including PWR cavity flooding, BWR drywell flooding, PWR depressurization and PWR feed and bleed

A framework for the assessment of severe accident management strategies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kastenberg, W.E. [ed.; Apostolakis, G.; Dhir, V.K. [California Univ., Los Angeles, CA (United States). Dept. of Mechanical, Aerospace and Nuclear Engineering] [and others

1993-09-01

Severe accident management can be defined as the use of existing and/or altemative resources, systems and actors to prevent or mitigate a core-melt accident. For each accident sequence and each combination of severe accident management strategies, there may be several options available to the operator, and each involves phenomenological and operational considerations regarding uncertainty. Operational uncertainties include operator, system and instrumentation behavior during an accident. A framework based on decision trees and influence diagrams has been developed which incorporates such criteria as feasibility, effectiveness, and adverse effects, for evaluating potential severe accident management strategies. The framework is also capable of propagating both data and model uncertainty. It is applied to several potential strategies including PWR cavity flooding, BWR drywell flooding, PWR depressurization and PWR feed and bleed.

A framework for the assessment of severe accident management strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kastenberg, W.E.; Apostolakis, G.; Dhir, V.K.; Okrent, D.; Jae, M.; Lim, H.; Milici, T.; Park, H.; Swider, J.; Xing, L.; Yu, D.

1992-01-01

Accident management can be defined as the innovative use of existing and or alternative resources, systems and actions to prevent or mitigate a severe accident. Together with risk management (changes in plant operation and/or addition of equipment) and emergency planning (off-site actions), accident management provides an extension of the defense-in-depth safety philosophy for severe accidents. A significant number of probabilistic safety assessments (PSA) have been completed which yield the principal plant vulnerabilities. For each sequence/threat and each combination of strategy there may be several options available to the operator. Each strategy/option involves phenomenological and operational considerations regarding uncertainty. These considerations include uncertainty in key phenomena, uncertainty in operator behavior, uncertainty in system availability and behavior, and uncertainty in available information (i.e., instrumentation). The objective of this project is to develop a methodology for assessing severe accident management strategies given the key uncertainties mentioned above. Based on decision trees and influence diagrams, the methodology is currently being applied to two case studies: cavity flooding in a pressurized water reactor to prevent vessel penetration or failure, and drywell flooding in a boiling water reactor to prevent containment failure

Reactor safety study. An assessment of accident risks in U. S. commercial nuclear power plants. Appendix VI. Calculation of reactor accident consequences. [PWR and BWR

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1975-10-01

Information is presented concerning the radioactive releases from the containment following accidents; radioactive inventory of the reactor core; atmospheric dispersion; reactor sites and meteorological data; radioactive decay and deposition from plumes; finite distance of plume travel; dosimetric models; health effects; demographic data; mitigation of radiation exposure; economic model; and calculated results with consequence model.

Radiation accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poplavskij, K.K.; Smorodintseva, G.I.

1978-01-01

On the basis of a critical analysis of the available data on causes and consequences of radiation accidents (RA), a classification of RA by severity (five groups of accidents) according to biomedical consequences and categories of exposed personnel is proposed. A RA is defined and its main characteristics are described. Methods of RA prevention are proposed, as is a plan of specific measures to deal with RA in accordance with the proposed classification

Degraded core accidents: review of aerosol behaviour in the containment of a PWR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nichols, A.L.; Walker, B.C.

1981-09-01

Low probability-high consequence accidents have become an important issue in reactor safety studies. Such accidents would involve damage to the core and the subsequent release of radioactive fission products into the environment. Aerosols play a major role in the transport and removal of these fission products in the reactor building containment. The aerosol mechanisms, computer modelling codes and experimental studies used to predict aerosol behaviour in the containment of a PWR are reviewed. There are significant uncertainties in the aerosol source terms and specific recommendations have been made for further studies, particularly with respect to code development and high density aerosol-fission product transport within closed systems. (author)

Calculations of reactor-accident consequences, Version 2. CRAC2: computer code user's guide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ritchie, L.T.; Johnson, J.D.; Blond, R.M.

1983-02-01

The CRAC2 computer code is a revision of the Calculation of Reactor Accident Consequences computer code, CRAC, developed for the Reactor Safety Study. The CRAC2 computer code incorporates significant modeling improvements in the areas of weather sequence sampling and emergency response, and refinements to the plume rise, atmospheric dispersion, and wet deposition models. New output capabilities have also been added. This guide is to facilitate the informed and intelligent use of CRAC2. It includes descriptions of the input data, the output results, the file structures, control information, and five sample problems

Cesium-137: psychological and social consequences of the Goiania's accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helou, Suzana; Costa Neto, Sebastiao Benicio da

1995-01-01

The book care for radioactive accident occurred in 1987 in Goiania - brazilian city. The accident had origin by the hospitable equipment incorrect handling which contained a stainless steel capsule, in which interior there was cesium-137 chloride. The main boarded aspects are: psychological and social aspects verified after the accident; psychological and social analysis of population of Goiania three years after the accident; essay on the pertinence of Luscher's abbreviate test in psychological evaluation of the radioactive accident victims of Goiania; and psychological and mobile evaluation of intra-uterus children exposed to the radiation with cesium-137

Preventing accidents

Science.gov (United States)

2005-08-01

As the most effective strategy for improving safety is to prevent accidents from occurring at all, the Volpe Center applies a broad range of research techniques and capabilities to determine causes and consequences of accidents and to identify, asses...

Estimation of expected number of accidents and workforce unavailability through Bayesian population variability analysis and Markov-based model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chagas Moura, Márcio das; Azevedo, Rafael Valença; Droguett, Enrique López; Chaves, Leandro Rego; Lins, Isis Didier

2016-01-01

Occupational accidents pose several negative consequences to employees, employers, environment and people surrounding the locale where the accident takes place. Some types of accidents correspond to low frequency-high consequence (long sick leaves) events, and then classical statistical approaches are ineffective in these cases because the available dataset is generally sparse and contain censored recordings. In this context, we propose a Bayesian population variability method for the estimation of the distributions of the rates of accident and recovery. Given these distributions, a Markov-based model will be used to estimate the uncertainty over the expected number of accidents and the work time loss. Thus, the use of Bayesian analysis along with the Markov approach aims at investigating future trends regarding occupational accidents in a workplace as well as enabling a better management of the labor force and prevention efforts. One application example is presented in order to validate the proposed approach; this case uses available data gathered from a hydropower company in Brazil. - Highlights: • This paper proposes a Bayesian method to estimate rates of accident and recovery. • The model requires simple data likely to be available in the company database. • These results show the proposed model is not too sensitive to the prior estimates.

Uncertainty analysis in an accidental situation. Radionuclide transfer in environment and assessment of human exposure by food

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sy, Mouhamadou Moustapha

2016-01-01

Major nuclear accidents of Chernobyl (April, 1986) and Fukushima (March, 2011) have led to a huge environmental contamination with important amounts of radionuclides released in the atmosphere. Risk assessment, in case of nuclear emergency, is confronted to uncertainties on the transfer of radioactive substances in terrestrial ecosystems and to human population through the food chain, which could affect the reliability of decisions. The extent of the repercussions of Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents highlighted the difficulty of managing the consequences of such disasters and specifically to accommodate the different sources of uncertainty within decision-making processes. The objective of this research project is to develop a methodology to take into account uncertainties within environmental and food risk assessment models in order to improve decision support tools used for accidental situations. In this regard, different hierarchical Bayesian models aiming at capturing, within a unique modelling framework, uncertainty and variability about radioecological parameters of great important for accidental situation (dry and wet interception fractions and weathering loss parameter) were developed. Models parameters were estimated by Bayesian inference applied on databases obtained by an extended literature review. The impact on the risk assessment models of uncertainty and variability about these radioecological parameters was then assessed by stochastic simulations and sensitivity analyses applied on two case-studies: a hypothetical accident simulating a standardized deposition of radionuclides and the accident of Fukushima nuclear power plant. The works developed in this project contribute to enhance knowledge on key processes governing environmental transfer of radionuclides and to improve the parameterization of the radioecological risk assessment models with respect to the research lines outlined by the scientific community in radioecology. (author)

Optimum modellings of atmospheric diffusion of radioactive effluents and exposure doses in the accident consequence assessment (Level 3 PSA)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Byung Woo; Lee, Young Bok; Han, Moon Hee; Kim, Eun Han; Suh, Kyung Suk; Hwang, Won Tae

1992-12-01

Atmospheric diffusion and exposure strongly dependent on the environment were firstly considered in the full spectrum of accident consequence assessment to establish based on Korean conditions. An optimum weather category based on Korean climate and site-specific meteorology of Kori region was established by statistical analysis of measured data for 10 years. And a trajectory model was selected as the optimal one in the ACA by reviewing several existing diffusion models. Following aspects were considered in this selection as availability of meteorological data, ability to treat the change to wind direction, easy applicability of the model, and restriction of CPU time and core memory in current computers. Numerical integration method of our own was selected as the optimal dose assessment tool of external exposure. Unit dose rate was firstly computed with this method as the function of energy level of radionuclide, size of lattice, and distance between source and receptor, and then the results were rearranged as the data library for the rapid access to the ACA run. Dynamic ecosystem modelling has been done in order to estimate the seasonal variation of radioactivity for the assessment of ingestion exposure, considering Korean ingestion behavior, agricultural practice and the transportation. There is a lot of uncertainty in a countermeasure model due to the assumed values of parameters such as fraction of population with different shielding factor and driving speed. A new countermeasure model was developed using the concept of fuzzy set theory, since it provided the mathematical tools which could characterize the uncertainty involved in countermeasure modelling. (Author)

Radioactive contamination of the Dutch soil in consequence of the nuclear reactor accident at Chernobyl

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koester, H.W.; Mattern, F.C.M.; Pennders, R.M.J.

1987-01-01

As a consequence of the reactor accident in Chernobyl air, contaminated with radioactive materials, spread over the Netherlands. From 2nd May to 6th May, with dry and to a greater extent with wet deposits, important quantities of radionuclides came upon the earth surface. In this period the weather circumstances within the Netherlands differed strongly resulting in distinct variations in deposit. In this document a preliminary picture is given of the contamination of the Dutch bottom on the basis of soil samplings made in the first few months after the accident. No attention is paid to geographic differences in bottom contamination. The contamination of the bottom is expressed in Bq/kg dry soil as well as in Bq/m 2 soil. 5 refs.; 6 tabs. (H.W.)

An experience of information support of the Russian federal programs of the overcoming of consequences of the accident at the Chernobyl NPP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Linge, I.I.; Ossipiants, I.A.; Ilushkin, I.I.; Melihova, E.I.; Blinov, B.K.; Marchenko, T.A.

2002-01-01

Since 1992, by a number of paragraphs of the federal programs on overcoming consequences of accident on Chernobyl NPP, the measures on informational-analytic support of the federal programs were provided. Within the framework of this activity for the solution of various aspects of Chernobyl's problem central bank of generalized data and numerous information systems were created. In the report the brief description of some of them is presented. In particular the databank on radioactive situation includes the information on 12 thousand settlements of Russia which have been exposed to radioactive contamination as a result of the accident.The medico-demographic section of a databank includes information on death rate for the reasons for all subjects of Russian Federation since 1982 till the present time. The developed information systems are available to all participants of work on overcoming of consequences of the accident. There are given the examples of integral estimates in short- and long-term forecasts of development of a situation in territories suffered by the accident at the Chernobyl NPP. (author)

Analysis for mechanical consequences of a core disruptive accident in Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chellapandi, P.; Velusamy, K.; Chetal, S.C.; Bhoje, S.B.; Lal, H.; Sethi, V.S.

2003-01-01

The mechanical consequences of a core disruptive accident (CDA) in a fast breeder reactor are described. The consequences are development of deformations and strains in the vessels, intermediate heat exchangers (IHX) and decay heat exchangers (DHX), impact of sodium slug on the bottom surface of the top shield, sodium release to reactor containment building through top shield penetrations, sodium fire and consequent temperature and pressure rise in reactor containment building (RCB). These are quantified for 500 MWe Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR) for a CDA with 100 MJ work potential. The results are validated by conducting a series of experiments on 1/30 and 1/13 scaled down models with increasing complexities. Mechanical energy release due to nuclear excursion is simulated by chemical explosion of specially developed low density explosive charge. Based on these studies, structural integrity of primary containment, IHX and DHX is demonstrated. The sodium release to RCB is 350 kg which causes pressure rise of 12 kPa in RCB. (author)

Environmental decision support system on base of geoinformational technologies for the analysis of nuclear accident consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haas, T.C.; Maigan, M.; Arutyunyan, R.V.; Bolshov, L.A.; Demianov, V.V.

1996-01-01

The report deals with description of the concept and prototype of environmental decision support system (EDSS) for the analysis of late off-site consequences of severe nuclear accidents and analysis, processing and presentation of spatially distributed radioecological data. General description of the available software, use of modem achievements of geostatistics and stochastic simulations for the analysis of spatial data are presented and discussed

Public Response to a Near-Miss Nuclear Accident Scenario Varying in Causal Attributions and Outcome Uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Cui, Jinshu; Rosoff, Heather; John, Richard S

2018-05-01

Many studies have investigated public reactions to nuclear accidents. However, few studies focused on more common events when a serious accident could have happened but did not. This study evaluated public response (emotional, cognitive, and behavioral) over three phases of a near-miss nuclear accident. Simulating a loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) scenario, we manipulated (1) attribution for the initial cause of the incident (software failure vs. cyber terrorist attack vs. earthquake), (2) attribution for halting the incident (fail-safe system design vs. an intervention by an individual expert vs. a chance coincidence), and (3) level of uncertainty (certain vs. uncertain) about risk of a future radiation leak after the LOCA is halted. A total of 773 respondents were sampled using a 3 × 3 × 2 between-subjects design. Results from both MANCOVA and structural equation modeling (SEM) indicate that respondents experienced more negative affect, perceived more risk, and expressed more avoidance behavioral intention when the near-miss event was initiated by an external attributed source (e.g., earthquake) compared to an internally attributed source (e.g., software failure). Similarly, respondents also indicated greater negative affect, perceived risk, and avoidance behavioral intentions when the future impact of the near-miss incident on people and the environment remained uncertain. Results from SEM analyses also suggested that negative affect predicted risk perception, and both predicted avoidance behavior. Affect, risk perception, and avoidance behavior demonstrated high stability (i.e., reliability) from one phase to the next. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Accidents, 'black swans' and risks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Luxat, J.C. [McMaster Univ., Dept. of Engineering Physics, Hamilton, Ontario (Canada)

2013-06-15

Major accidents and natural disasters with severe consequences have occurred in all sectors of industrial activity with relatively high frequency. The severe consequences of concern involve either significant loss of life or major economic loss, or both loss of life and economic loss. Such events have the last two years been referred to as 'black swan' events following publication of Taleb's bestselling book. These events demonstrate limits to PRA application that arise from the underlying high uncertainty associated with the estimation of frequency of occurrence of such events. An approach is proposed in this paper that, consistent with the concept of defense in depth employed by the nuclear industry, augments probabilistic risk assessment with a methodology based upon 'threat - risk assessment'. This approach shifts these very low frequency high consequence 'black swan' events out of the probabilistic risk assessment domain into a deterministic emergency response assessment domain. (author)

Assessment of uncertainties of external dose estimation after the Chernobyl accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kruk, Julianna

2008-01-01

Full text: In the remote period of time after the Chernobyl accident the estimation of an external exposure with using of direct dose rate measurements or individual monitoring of inhabitants is rationally only for settlements where the preliminary estimation makes the range equal or greater 1.0 mSv per year. For inhabitancies of settlements where the preliminary estimation makes the range less 1.0 mSv per year the external dose is correctly to estimate by calculation. For the last cases the uncertainty should be assessed. The most accessible initial parameter for calculation of a dose of an external exposure is the average ground deposition of Cs-137 for the settlements. The character of density distribution of Cs-137 deposition in an area of one settlement is well enough studied. The best agreement of distribution of this parameter is reached with log-normal distribution practically for all settlements of the investigated territories with factor of a variation 0.3-0.6 and the standard geometrical deviation lying within the limits of 1.4-1.7. The dose factors which correspond to the structure of an available housing of settlement (type of apartment houses: wooden, stone, multi-storey) and age structure of the population are bring the main contribution into uncertainty of the external dose estimation. The situations with a different level of known information have been considered for the estimation of influence of those parameters on the general uncertainty. Thus the estimation of the uncertainty of the external dose was done for two variant: optimistic and pessimistic. In the optimistic case the estimation of external doses will be spent for specific settlement with known structure of housing and according to a known share of the living population in houses of the certain type. In that case, variability value dose factor will be limited to the chosen type of a residential building (for example - the one-storied wooden house), and a share of the living population

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis on probabilistic safety assessment of an experimental facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burgazzi, L.

2000-01-01

The aim of this work is to perform an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis on the probabilistic safety assessment of the International Fusion Materials Irradiation Facility (IFMIF), in order to assess the effect on the final risk values of the uncertainties associated with the generic data used for the initiating events and component reliability and to identify the key quantities contributing to this uncertainty. The analysis is conducted on the expected frequency calculated for the accident sequences, defined through the event tree (ET) modeling. This is in order to increment credit to the ET model quantification, to calculate frequency distributions for the occurrence of events and, consequently, to assess if sequences have been correctly selected on the probability standpoint and finally to verify the fulfillment of the safety conditions. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are performed using respectively Monte Carlo sampling and an importance parameter technique. (author)

Hypertension and left ventricular hypertrophy in liquidators of consequences of the Chernobyl nuclear accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shal'nova, S.A.; Smolenskij, A.V.; Shamarin, V.M.; Ehktova, T.V.; Berzak, N.V.; Zemtsova, N.A.; Timofeeva, S.G.; Zhavoronkova, E.A.; Muromtseva, G.A.; Arkad'eva, M.A.; Deev, A.D.

1998-01-01

Echocardiography was used for the study of prevalence of left ventricular hypertrophy in 839 liquidators of consequences of the Chernobyl accident. Prevalence of left ventricular hypertrophy (left ventricular myocardial mass 134 g/m 2 ) was 10.3, 13.4 and 22.5 % in liquidators with normal blood pressure, borderline hypertension and hypertension, respectively. Liquidators with normal blood pressure had significantly greater left ventricular myocardial mass than normotensive men from general population while liquidators and non liquidators with hypertension had equal values of this parameter [ru

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of environmental transport models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Margulies, T.S.; Lancaster, L.E.

1985-01-01

An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has been made of the CRAC-2 (Calculations of Reactor Accident Consequences) atmospheric transport and deposition models. Robustness and uncertainty aspects of air and ground deposited material and the relative contribution of input and model parameters were systematically studied. The underlying data structures were investigated using a multiway layout of factors over specified ranges generated via a Latin hypercube sampling scheme. The variables selected in our analysis include: weather bin, dry deposition velocity, rain washout coefficient/rain intensity, duration of release, heat content, sigma-z (vertical) plume dispersion parameter, sigma-y (crosswind) plume dispersion parameter, and mixing height. To determine the contributors to the output variability (versus distance from the site) step-wise regression analyses were performed on transformations of the spatial concentration patterns simulated. 27 references, 2 figures, 3 tables

Method for consequence calculations for severe accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nielsen, F.

1988-07-01

This report was commissioned by the Swedish State Power Board. The report contains a calculation of radiation doses in the surroundings caused by a theoretical core meltdown accident at Forsmark reactor No 3. The accident sequence chosen for the calculating was a release caused by total power failure. The calculations were made by means of the PLUCON4 code. Meteorological data for two years from the Forsmark meteorological tower were analysed to find representative weather situations. As typical weather, Pasquill D was chosen with a wind speed of 5 m/s, and as extreme weather, Pasquill F with a wind speed of 2 m/s. 23 tabs., 37 ills., 20 refs. (author)

A real-time, dynamic early-warning model based on uncertainty analysis and risk assessment for sudden water pollution accidents.

Science.gov (United States)

Hou, Dibo; Ge, Xiaofan; Huang, Pingjie; Zhang, Guangxin; Loáiciga, Hugo

2014-01-01

A real-time, dynamic, early-warning model (EP-risk model) is proposed to cope with sudden water quality pollution accidents affecting downstream areas with raw-water intakes (denoted as EPs). The EP-risk model outputs the risk level of water pollution at the EP by calculating the likelihood of pollution and evaluating the impact of pollution. A generalized form of the EP-risk model for river pollution accidents based on Monte Carlo simulation, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method, and the risk matrix method is proposed. The likelihood of water pollution at the EP is calculated by the Monte Carlo method, which is used for uncertainty analysis of pollutants' transport in rivers. The impact of water pollution at the EP is evaluated by expert knowledge and the results of Monte Carlo simulation based on the analytic hierarchy process. The final risk level of water pollution at the EP is determined by the risk matrix method. A case study of the proposed method is illustrated with a phenol spill accident in China.

Radiological consequence analyses of loss of coolant accidents of various break sizes of Pressurized Heavy Water Reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanyasi Rao, V.V.S.; Hari Prasad, M.; Ghosh, A.K.

2010-01-01

For any advanced technology, it is essential to ensure that the consequences associated with the accident sequences arising, if any, from the operation of the plant are as low as possible and certainly below the guidelines/limits set by the regulatory bodies. Nuclear power is no exception to this. In this paper consequences of the events arising from Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) sequences in Pressurized Heavy Water Reactor (PHWR), are analysed. The sequences correspond to different break sizes of LOCA followed by the operation or otherwise of Emergency Core Cooling System (ECCS). Operation or otherwise of the containment safety systems has also been considered. It has been found that there are no releases to the environment when ECCS is available. The releases, when ECCS is not available, arise from the slack and the ground. The radionuclides considered include noble gases, iodine, and cesium. The hourly meteorological parameters (wind speed, wind direction, precipitation and stability category), considered for this study, correspond to those of Kakrapar site. The consequences evaluated are the thyroid dose and the bone marrow dose received by a person located at various distances from the release point. Isodose curves are generated. From these evaluations, it has been found that the doses are very low. The complementary cumulative frequency distributions (CCFD) for thyroid and bone marrow doses have also been presented for the cases analysed. (author)

Prevention of "simple accidents at work" with major consequences

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, Kirsten

2016-01-01

broadly. This review identifies gaps in the prevention of simple accidents, relating to safety barriers for risk control and the management processes that need to be in place to deliver those risk controls in a continuingly effective state. The article introduces the ‘‘INFO cards’’ as a tool......The concept ‘‘simple accidents’’ is understood as traumatic events with one victim. In the last 10 years many European countries have seen a decline in the number of fatalities, but there still remain many severe accidents at work. In the years 2009–2010 in European countries 2.0–2.4 million...... occupational accidents a year were notified leading to 4500 fatalities and 90,000 permanent disabilities each year. The article looks at the concept ‘‘accident’’ to find similarities and distinctions between major and simple accident characteristics. The purpose is to find to what extent the same kinds...

Radiological attacks and accidents. Medical consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sakuta, Hidenari

2007-01-01

Probability of the occurrence of radiological attacks appears to be elevated after the terrorist attacks against the United States on September 11 in 2001. There are a lot of scenarios of radiological attack: simple radiological device, radiological disperse device (RDD or dirty bomb), attacks against nuclear reactor, improvised nuclear device, and nuclear weapons. Of these, RDD attack is the most probable scenario, because it can be easily made and can generate enormous psychological and economic damages. Radiological incidents are occurring to and fro in the world, including several cases of theft to nuclear facilities and unsuccessful terrorist attacks against them. Recently, a former Russian spy has allegedly been killed using polonium-210. In addition, serious radiological accidents have occurred in Chernobyl, Goiania, and Tokai-mura. Planning, preparation, education, and training exercise appear to be essential factors to cope with radiological attacks and accidents effectively without feeling much anxiety. Triage and psychological first aid are prerequisite to manage and provide effective medial care for mass casualties without inducing panic. (author)

A review of the Melcor Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS): Capabilities and applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Young, M.

1995-01-01

MACCS was developed at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) under U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) sponsorship to estimate the offsite consequences of potential severe accidents at nuclear power plants (NPPs). MACCS was publicly released in 1990. MACCS was developed to support the NRC's probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) efforts. PSA techniques can provide a measure of the risk of reactor operation. PSAs are generally divided into three levels. Level one efforts identify potential plant damage states that lead to core damage and the associated probabilities, level two models damage progression and containment strength for establishing fission-product release categories, and level three efforts evaluate potential off-site consequences of radiological releases and the probabilities associated with the consequences. MACCS was designed as a tool for level three PSA analysis. MACCS performs probabilistic health and economic consequence assessments of hypothetical accidental releases of radioactive material from NPPs. MACCS includes models for atmospheric dispersion and transport, wet and dry deposition, the probabilistic treatment of meteorology, environmental transfer, countermeasure strategies, dosimetry, health effects, and economic impacts. The computer systems MACCS is designed to run on are the 386/486 PC, VAX/VMS, E3M RISC S/6000, Sun SPARC, and Cray UNICOS. This paper provides an overview of MACCS, reviews some of the applications of MACCS, international collaborations which have involved MACCS, current developmental efforts, and future directions

State of the art for assessing the off-side economic consequences of nuclear accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gallego Diaz, E.

1996-01-01

The paper is intended to offer a wide perspective on th methodologies for assessing the off-side economic consequences of nuclear accidents. The element which can contribute to the cost are first reviewed, namely the application of countermeasures against radioactive contamination: population movements, decontamination, food bans; together with the resulting health effects if this is the case. The basic characteristics of the existing models and codes are also presented, including the most recent developments and intercomparisons of results. Some applications of this kind of studies in different fields are outlined. (Author) 17 refs

Method for consequence calculations for severe accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nielsen, F.; Thykier-Nielsen, S.; Walmod-Larsen, O.

1986-08-01

This report was commissioned by the Swedish State Power Board, who wanted a method for calculation of radiation doses in the surroundings of nuclear power plants caused by severe accidents. The PLUCON4 code were used for the calculations. A TC-SV-accident at Ringhals 1 wer chosen as example. A transient without shutdown leads to core meltdown through the reactor vessel. The pressure peak at the moment of vessel failure opens a safety valve in the dry well. Meteorolgical data for two years from the Ringhals meteorological tower were analysed to find representative weather situations. As typical weather were chosen Pasquill D with wind speed 8 m/s, and as extreme weather were chosen Pasquill F with wind speed 4.8 m/s. (author)

Method for consequence calculations for severe accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nielsen, F.

1988-01-01

This report was commissioned by the Swedish State Power Board. The report contains a calculation of radiation doses in the surroundings caused by a theoretical core meltdown accident at Ringhals reactor No 3/4. The accident sequence chosen for the calcualtions was a release caused by total power failure. The calculations were made by means of the PLUCON4 code. A decontamination factor of 500 is used to account for the scrubber effect. Meteorological data for two years from the Ringhals meteorological tower were analysed to find representative weather situations. As typical weather, Pasquill D, was chosen with a wind speed of 10 m/s, and as extreme weather, Pasquill E, with a wind speed of 2 m/s. 19 refs. (author)

The main results of fulfilment in 1996 of the scientific part of the State programme of the Republic of Belarus for minimization and overcoming of the Chernobyl NPP accident consequences (1996-2000)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Konoplya, E.F.

1997-01-01

In the publication are summarized the basic results of the researches executed in 1996 in the framework of the 'Scientific maintenance of the decision of problems of the Chernobyl NPP accident consequences' of the State program of Republic of Belarus for minimization and overcoming of the Chernobyl NPP accident consequences on 1996-2000 on the following directions: dose monitoring of the population, estimation and forecast of both collective irradiation dozes and risks of radiation induced diseases; development and optimization of a complex of measures for effective land use and decrease of radioactive contamination of agricultural production in order to reduce irradiation dozes of the population; development of complex technologies and means of decontamination, processing and burial of radioactive wastes; development of the measures for increase of radiation protection of the population of Belarus during of the reducing period after the Chernobyl accident; development of complex system of an estimation and decision-making on problems of radiation protection of the population living on contaminated territories; study of influence of radiological consequences of the Chernobyl accident on health of people, development of methods and means of diagnostics, treatment and preventive maintenance of diseases for various categories of the victims; development of effective methods of preventive maintenance and treatment of diseases of both mother and child in conditions of influence of the Chernobyl NPP accident consequences; study of genetic consequences caused by the Chernobyl accident and development of effectual measures of their prevention; creation of the effective both prophylactic means and food additives for treatment and rehabilitation of the persons having suffered after the Chernobyl accident; study of the radioisotopes behaviour dynamics in environment (air, water, ground), ecosystems and populated areas; optimization of the system of radiation ecological

Development of severe accident management advisory and training simulator (SAMAT)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeong, K.-S.; Kim, K.-R.; Jung, W.-D.; Ha, J.-J.

2002-01-01

The most operator support systems including the training simulator have been developed to assist the operator and they cover from normal operation to emergency operation. For the severe accident, the overall architecture for severe accident management is being developed in some developed countries according to the development of severe accident management guidelines which are the skeleton of severe accident management architecture. In Korea, the severe accident management guideline for KSNP was recently developed and it is expected to be a central axis of logical flow for severe accident management. There are a lot of uncertainties in the severe accident phenomena and scenarios and one of the major issues for developing a operator support system for a severe accident is the reduction of these uncertainties. In this paper, the severe accident management advisory system with training simulator, SAMAT, is developed as all available information for a severe accident are re-organized and provided to the management staff in order to reduce the uncertainties. The developed system includes the graphical display for plant and equipment status, the previous research results by knowledge-base technique, and the expected plant behavior using the severe accident training simulator. The plant model used in this paper is oriented to severe accident phenomena and thus can simulate the plant behavior for a severe accident. Therefore, the developed system may make a central role of the information source for decision-making for a severe accident management, and will be used as the training simulator for severe accident management

Consideration of uncertainties in CCDF risk curves in safety oriented decision making processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stern, E.; Tadmor, J.

1988-01-01

In recent years, some of the results of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (i.e. the magnitudes of the various adverse health effects and other effects of potential accidents in nuclear power plants) have usually been presented in Complementary Cumulative Distribution Function curves, widely known as CCDF risk curves. CCDF curves are characteristic of probabilistic accident analyses and consequence calculations, although, in many cases, the codes producing the CCDF curves consist of a mixture of both probabilistic and deterministic calculations. One of the main difficulties in the process of PRA is the problem of uncertainties associated with the risk assessments. The uncertainties, as expressed in CCDF risk curves can be classified into two main categories: (a) uncertainties expressed by the CCDF risk curve itself due to its probabilistic nature and - (b) the uncertainty band of CCDF risk curves. The band consists of a ''family of CCDF curves'' which represents the risks (e.g. early/late fatalities) evaluated at various levels of confidence for a specific Plant-Site Combination (PSC) i.e. a certain nuclear power plant located at a certain site. The reasons why a family of curves rather than a single curve represents the risk of a certain PSC have been discussed. Generally, the uncertainty band of CCDF curves is limited by the 95% (''conservative'') and the 5% curves. In most cases the 50% (median, ''best estimate'') curve is also shown because scientists tend to believe that it represents the ''realistic'' (or real) risk of the plant

Consequences in Sweden of the Chernobyl accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haegg, Conny.

1990-01-01

The radiation doses to man in Sweden due to the Chernobyl accident originate mainly from external irradiation from deposited radionuclides and internal irradiation from consumption of radioactively contaminated food stuffs. Inhalation and external irradiation from the passing cloud give only a minor contribution to the total dose. As an average for the Swedish population the individual radiation dose during the first year amounts to about 0.1 mSv, i.e. 10% of the natural background radiation. In the most contaminated areas, however, the individual dose may become 30 times higher than the average dose. The dose committed over 50 years has estimated to be about six times as high as the first year dose. The collective dose for the Swedish population has been estimated to about 1300 manSv the first year after the accident and the corresponding dose over 50 years to 5000 to 7000 manSv. This could lead to 100 to 200 extra fatal cancers. Furthermore, no damages on man that can be related to Chernobyl fallout, e.g. pre-natal effects, have so far been observed in Sweden. Shortly after the accident, several research projects were initiated in Sweden in order to follow the distribution of radionuclides in the aquatic and terrestrial environment. The results which in many cases are preliminary, shows that the recovery of the ecosystem will take several decades. (author)

Containment severe accident thermohydraulic phenomena

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frid, W.

1991-08-01

This report describes and discusses the containment accident progression and the important severe accident containment thermohydraulic phenomena. The overall objective of the report is to provide a rather detailed presentation of the present status of phenomenological knowledge, including an account of relevant experimental investigations and to discuss, to some extent, the modelling approach used in the MAAP 3.0 computer code. The MAAP code has been used in Sweden as the main tool in the analysis of severe accidents. The dependence of the containment accident progression and containment phenomena on the initial conditions, which in turn are heavily dependent on the in-vessel accident progression and phenomena as well as associated uncertainties, is emphasized. The report is in three parts dealing with: * Swedish reactor containments, the severe accident mitigation programme in Sweden and containment accident progression in Swedish PWRs and BWRs as predicted by the MAAP 3.0 code. * Key non-energetic ex-vessel phenomena (melt fragmentation in water, melt quenching and coolability, core-concrete interaction and high temperature in containment). * Early containment threats due to energetic events (hydrogen combustion, high pressure melt ejection and direct containment heating, and ex-vessel steam explosions). The report concludes that our understanding of the containment severe accident progression and phenomena has improved very significantly over the parts ten years and, thereby, our ability to assess containment threats, to quantify uncertainties, and to interpret the results of experiments and computer code calculations have also increased. (au)

Setup uncertainties: consequences for multi-isocentre stereotactic radiotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ebert, M.A.; Harper, C.S.

2000-01-01

Full text: Beam data for use in dose calculations by planning systems is generally measured under static and controlled conditions. Yet, patient motion and setup uncertainties will effectively blur the resulting dose distributions leading to a discrepancy between planned and delivered dose distributions. This is particularly so for stereotactic radiotherapy where small well-defined fields are used. When multiple isocentres are used (possibly for larger irregular lesions), relative motion of isocentres due to setup variations may have deleterious effects on the intended radiation delivery. The influence of setup uncertainties was examined by performing a three-dimensional convolution of measured off-axis ratio (OAR) data with a Maxwellian distribution, with standard deviations representing several feasible levels of inaccuracy in patient setup. A sample of patient plans (predominantly multi-isocentre plans) were then considered using original (measured) OAR data, and then modified data in order to observe the resulting effect. The effect of systematic localisation error was also considered by examining resulting DVHs as isocentres were shifted by fixed amounts. In all cases considered, the maximum dose varied quite minimally with increase in setup error with the variation decreasing with increasing high-dose volume. The minimum dose however varied more significantly, and this has serious consequences for dose prescription as the minimum dose can be the controlling factor in treatment efficacy. For multi-isocentre plans, the degree of non-uniformity generated by setup error was not as significant as originally expected. This is in part due to the non-uniformity already present in such plans to begin with. Through incorporation of the effect of setup error into planning data, the influence of setup variations on dose distributions for multi-isocentre treatments has been determined. This influence should be considered when creating plans based on the level of spatial

Severe accident approach - final report. Evaluation of design measures for severe accident prevention and consequence mitigation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tentner, A.M.; Parma, E.; Wei, T.; Wigeland, R.

2010-01-01

An important goal of the US DOE reactor development program is to conceptualize advanced safety design features for a demonstration Sodium Fast Reactor (SFR). The treatment of severe accidents is one of the key safety issues in the design approach for advanced SFR systems. It is necessary to develop an in-depth understanding of the risk of severe accidents for the SFR so that appropriate risk management measures can be implemented early in the design process. This report presents the results of a review of the SFR features and phenomena that directly influence the sequence of events during a postulated severe accident. The report identifies the safety features used or proposed for various SFR designs in the US and worldwide for the prevention and/or mitigation of Core Disruptive Accidents (CDA). The report provides an overview of the current SFR safety approaches and the role of severe accidents. Mutual understanding of these design features and safety approaches is necessary for future collaborations between the US and its international partners as part of the GEN IV program. The report also reviews the basis for an integrated safety approach to severe accidents for the SFR that reflects the safety design knowledge gained in the US during the Advanced Liquid Metal Reactor (ALMR) and Integral Fast Reactor (IFR) programs. This approach relies on inherent reactor and plant safety performance characteristics to provide additional safety margins. The goal of this approach is to prevent development of severe accident conditions, even in the event of initiators with safety system failures previously recognized to lead directly to reactor damage.

Severe accident approach - final report. Evaluation of design measures for severe accident prevention and consequence mitigation.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tentner, A. M.; Parma, E.; Wei, T.; Wigeland, R.; Nuclear Engineering Division; SNL; INL

2010-03-01

An important goal of the US DOE reactor development program is to conceptualize advanced safety design features for a demonstration Sodium Fast Reactor (SFR). The treatment of severe accidents is one of the key safety issues in the design approach for advanced SFR systems. It is necessary to develop an in-depth understanding of the risk of severe accidents for the SFR so that appropriate risk management measures can be implemented early in the design process. This report presents the results of a review of the SFR features and phenomena that directly influence the sequence of events during a postulated severe accident. The report identifies the safety features used or proposed for various SFR designs in the US and worldwide for the prevention and/or mitigation of Core Disruptive Accidents (CDA). The report provides an overview of the current SFR safety approaches and the role of severe accidents. Mutual understanding of these design features and safety approaches is necessary for future collaborations between the US and its international partners as part of the GEN IV program. The report also reviews the basis for an integrated safety approach to severe accidents for the SFR that reflects the safety design knowledge gained in the US during the Advanced Liquid Metal Reactor (ALMR) and Integral Fast Reactor (IFR) programs. This approach relies on inherent reactor and plant safety performance characteristics to provide additional safety margins. The goal of this approach is to prevent development of severe accident conditions, even in the event of initiators with safety system failures previously recognized to lead directly to reactor damage.

Big nuclear accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marshall, W.

1983-01-01

Much of the debate on the safety of nuclear power focuses on the large number of fatalities that could, in theory, be caused by extremely unlikely but imaginable reactor accidents. This, along with the nuclear industry's inappropriate use of vocabulary during public debate, has given the general public a distorted impression of the safety of nuclear power. The way in which the probability and consequences of big nuclear accidents have been presented in the past is reviewed and recommendations for the future are made including the presentation of the long-term consequences of such accidents in terms of 'reduction in life expectancy', 'increased chance of fatal cancer' and the equivalent pattern of compulsory cigarette smoking. (author)

Radiological consequence of Chernobyl nuclear power accident in Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uchiyama, Masafumi; Nakamura, Yuji; Kankura, Takako; Iwasaki, Tamiko; Fujimoto, Kenzo; Kobayashi, Sadayoshi.

1988-03-01

Two years have elapsed since the accident in Chernobyl nuclear power station shocked those concerned with nuclear power generation. The effect that this accident exerted on human environment has still continued directly and indirectly, and the reports on the effect have been made in various countries and by international organizations. In Japan, about the exposure dose of Japanese people due to this accident, the Nuclear Safety Commission and Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute issued the reports. In this report, the available data concerning the envrionmental radioactivity level in Japan due to the Chernobyl accident are collected, and the evaluation of exposure dose which seems most appropriate from the present day scientific viewpoint was attempted by the detailed analysis in the National Institute of Radiological Sciences. The enormous number of the data observed in various parts of Japan were different in sampling, locality, time and measuring method, so difficulty arose frequently. The maximum concentration of I-131 in floating dust was 2.5 Bq/m 3 observed in Fukui, and the same kinds of radioactive nuclides as those in Europe were detected. (Kako, I.)