WorldWideScience

Sample records for accident consequence uncertainty

  1. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Food chain uncertainty assessment. Volume 1: Main report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, J. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands)] [and others

    1997-06-01

    This volume is the first of a two-volume document that summarizes a joint project conducted by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the European Commission to assess uncertainties in the MACCS and COSYMA probabilistic accident consequence codes. These codes were developed primarily for estimating the risks presented by nuclear reactors based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. This document reports on an ongoing project to assess uncertainty in the MACCS and COSYMA calculations for the offsite consequences of radionuclide releases by hypothetical nuclear power plant accidents. A panel of sixteen experts was formed to compile credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for food chain variables that affect calculations of offsite consequences. The expert judgment elicitation procedure and its outcomes are described in these volumes. Other panels were formed to consider uncertainty in other aspects of the codes. Their results are described in companion reports. Volume 1 contains background information and a complete description of the joint consequence uncertainty study. Volume 2 contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures for both panels, (3) the rationales and results for the panels on soil and plant transfer and animal transfer, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

  2. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for internal dosimetry. Volume 1: Main report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Harrison, J.D. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

    1998-04-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA internal dosimetry models.

  3. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Late health effects uncertainty assessment. Volume 1: Main report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Little, M.P.; Muirhead, C.R. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

    1997-12-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA late health effects models.

  4. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Early health effects uncertainty assessment. Volume 2: Appendices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haskin, F.E. [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands)

    1997-12-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA early health effects models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on early health effects, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

  5. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for deposited material and external doses. Volume 2: Appendices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Boardman, J. [AEA Technology (United Kingdom); Jones, J.A. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

    1997-12-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA deposited material and external dose models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on deposited material and external doses, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

  6. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for internal dosimetry. Volume 2: Appendices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Harrison, J.D. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

    1998-04-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA internal dosimetry models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on internal dosimetry, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

  7. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Dispersion and deposition uncertainty assessment, appendices A and B

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L.; Miller, L.A. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States); Lui, C.H. [Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States); Goossens, L.H.J.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Paesler-Sauer, J. [Research Center, Karlsruhe (Germany); Helton, J.C. [and others

    1995-01-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, completed in 1990, estimate the risks presented by nuclear installations based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) began a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The objective was to develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the input variables of the codes. Expert elicitation, developed independently, was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for the selected consequence parameters. The study was formulated jointly and was limited to the current code models and to physical quantities that could be measured in experiments. To validate the distributions generated for the wet deposition input variables, samples were taken from these distributions and propagated through the wet deposition code model along with the Gaussian plume model (GPM) implemented in the MACCS and COSYMA codes. Resulting distributions closely replicated the aggregated elicited wet deposition distributions. Project teams from the NRC and CEC cooperated successfully to develop and implement a unified process for the elaboration of uncertainty distributions on consequence code input parameters. Formal expert judgment elicitation proved valuable for synthesizing the best available information. Distributions on measurable atmospheric dispersion and deposition parameters were successfully elicited from experts involved in the many phenomenological areas of consequence analysis. This volume is the second of a three-volume document describing the project and contains two appendices describing the rationales for the dispersion and deposition data along with short biographies of the 16 experts who participated in the project.

  8. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Dispersion and deposition uncertainty assessment, main report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L.; Miller, L.A. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States); Lui, C.H. [Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States); Goossens, L.H.J.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Paesler-Sauer, J. [Research Center, Karlsruhe (Germany); Helton, J.C. [and others

    1995-01-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the risks presented by nuclear installations based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) began a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of the joint effort was to develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the input variables of the codes. Expert elicitation was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for the selected consequence parameters. The study was formulated jointly and was limited to the current code models and to physical quantities that could be measured in experiments. Experts developed their distributions independently. To validate the distributions generated for the wet deposition input variables, samples were taken from these distributions and propagated through the wet deposition code model. Resulting distributions closely replicated the aggregated elicited wet deposition distributions. To validate the distributions generated for the dispersion code input variables, samples from the distributions and propagated through the Gaussian plume model (GPM) implemented in the MACCS and COSYMA codes. Project teams from the NRC and CEC cooperated successfully to develop and implement a unified process for the elaboration of uncertainty distributions on consequence code input parameters. Formal expert judgment elicitation proved valuable for synthesizing the best available information. Distributions on measurable atmospheric dispersion and deposition parameters were successfully elicited from experts involved in the many phenomenological areas of consequence analysis. This volume is the first of a three-volume document describing the project.

  9. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Food chain uncertainty assessment. Volume 2: Appendices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, J. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands)] [and others

    1997-06-01

    This volume is the second of a two-volume document that summarizes a joint project by the US Nuclear Regulatory and the Commission of European Communities to assess uncertainties in the MACCS and COSYMA probabilistic accident consequence codes. These codes were developed primarily for estimating the risks presented by nuclear reactors based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. This two-volume report, which examines mechanisms and uncertainties of transfer through the food chain, is the first in a series of five such reports. A panel of sixteen experts was formed to compile credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for food chain transfer that affect calculations of offsite radiological consequences. Seven of the experts reported on transfer into the food chain through soil and plants, nine reported on transfer via food products from animals, and two reported on both. The expert judgment elicitation procedure and its outcomes are described in these volumes. This volume contains seven appendices. Appendix A presents a brief discussion of the MAACS and COSYMA model codes. Appendix B is the structure document and elicitation questionnaire for the expert panel on soils and plants. Appendix C presents the rationales and responses of each of the members of the soils and plants expert panel. Appendix D is the structure document and elicitation questionnaire for the expert panel on animal transfer. The rationales and responses of each of the experts on animal transfer are given in Appendix E. Brief biographies of the food chain expert panel members are provided in Appendix F. Aggregated results of expert responses are presented in graph format in Appendix G.

  10. Assessment of uncertainties in early off-site consequences from nuclear reactor accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Madni, I.K.; Cazzoli, E.G. (Brookhaven National Lab., Dept. of Nuclear Energy, Upton, NY (US)); Khatib-Rahbar, M. (Energy Research, Inc., Rockville, MD (US))

    1990-04-01

    A simplified approach has been developed to calculate uncertainties in early off-site consequences from nuclear reactor accidents. The consequence model (SMART) is based on a solution procedure that uses simplified meteorology and involves direct analytic integration of air concentration equations over time and position. This is different from the discretization approach currently used in the CRAC2 and MACCS codes. The SMART code is fast running, thereby providing a valuable tool for sensitivity and uncertainty studies. The code was benchmarked against both MACCS version 1.4 and CRAC2. Results of benchmarketing and detailed sensitivity and uncertainty analyses using SMART are presented.

  11. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for deposited material and external doses. Volume 1: Main report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Boardman, J. [AEA Technology (United Kingdom); Jones, J.A. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

    1997-12-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA deposited material and external dose models.

  12. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Late health effects uncertain assessment. Volume 2: Appendices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Little, M.P.; Muirhead, C.R. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

    1997-12-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA late health effects models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the expert panel on late health effects, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

  13. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Dispersion and deposition uncertainty assessment. Volume 3, Appendices C, D, E, F, and G

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L.; Miller, L.A. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States)] [and others

    1995-01-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, completed in 1990, estimate the risks presented by nuclear installations based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) began a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The objective was to develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the input variables of the codes. Expert elicitation, developed independently, was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for the selected consequence parameters. The study was formulated jointly and was limited to the current code models and to physical quantities that could be measured in experiments. To validate the distributions generated for the wet deposition input variables, samples were taken from these distributions and propagated through the wet deposition code model along with the Gaussian plume model (GPM) implemented in the MACCS and COSYMA codes. Resulting distributions closely replicated the aggregated elicited wet deposition distributions. Project teams from the NRC and CEC cooperated successfully to develop and implement a unified process for the elaboration of uncertainty distributions on consequence code input parameters. Formal expert judgment elicitation proved valuable for synthesizing the best available information. Distributions on measurable atmospheric dispersion and deposition parameters were successfully elicited from experts involved in the many phenomenological areas of consequence analysis. This volume is the third of a three-volume document describing the project and contains descriptions of the probability assessment principles; the expert identification and selection process; the weighting methods used; the inverse modeling methods; case structures; and summaries of the consequence codes.

  14. Uncertainties in offsite consequence analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Young, M.L.; Harper, F.T.; Lui, C.H.

    1996-03-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequences from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the European Commission began co-sponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables using a formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process. This paper focuses on the methods used in and results of this on-going joint effort.

  15. Chernobyl accident and its consequences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gittus, J.H.

    1987-06-01

    The paper concerns the Chernobyl reactor accident, with emphasis on the design of the RBMK reactor and nuclear safety. A description is given of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, including details of the RMBK reactor and safety systems. Comments on the design of the RBMK by UK experts prior to the accident are summarized, along with post-accident design changes to improve RBMK safety. Events of the Chernobyl accident are described, as well as design deficiencies highlighted by the accident. Differences between the USSR and UK approaches to nuclear safety are commented on. Finally source terms, release periods and environmental consequences are briefly discussed.

  16. Chernobyl accident and its consequences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gittus, J.H.; Bonell, P.G.; Hicks, D.

    1987-01-01

    The USSR power reactor programme is first described. The reasons for the accident at the Chernobyl-4 RBMK nuclear reactor on 26 April 1986, the sequence of events that took place, and the immediate and long-term consequences are considered. A description of the RBMK-type reactors is given and the design changes resulting from the experience of the accident are explained. The source terms describing the details of the radioactivity release associated with the accident and the environmental consequences are covered in the last two sections of the report. Throughout the text comments referring to the UK Nuclear Installations Inspectorate Safety assessment principles have been inserted. (U.K.).

  17. The consequences of Chernobyl accident

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Chioșilă

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available These days marks 30 years since the Chernobyl nuclear accident, followed by massive radioactive contamination of the environment and human in Belarus, Ukraine and Russia, and resulted in many deaths among people who intervened to decrease the effects of the nuclear disaster. The 26 April 1986 nuclear accident contaminated all European countries, but at a much lower level, without highlighted consequences on human health. In special laboratories, the main radionuclides (I-131, Cs-137, Cs-134 and Sr-90 were also analyzed in Romania from environmental samples, food, even human subjects. These radionuclides caused the population to receive a low dose of about 1 mSv in 1986 that is half of the dose of the natural background radiation (2.4 mSv per year. As in all European countries (excluding Ukraine, Belarus and Russia this dose of about 1 mSv fell rapidly by 1990, reaching levels close to ones before the accident at the nuclear tests.

  18. Reconsidering Health Consequences of the Chernobyl Accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Socol, Yehoshua

    2015-01-01

    The Chernobyl accident led to major human suffering caused by the evacuation and other counter-measures. However, the direct health consequences of the accident-related radiation exposures, besides the acute effects and small number of thyroid cancers, have not been observed. This absence is challenged by some influential groups affecting public policies who claim that the true extent of radiogenic health consequences is covered up. We consider such claims. The most conservative (in this case - overestimating) linear no-threshold hypothesis was used to calculate excess cancer expectations for cleanup workers, the population of the contaminated areas and the global population. Statistical estimations were performed to verify whether such expected excess was detectable. The calculated cancer excess for each group is much less than uncertainties in number of cancer cases in epidemiological studies. Therefore the absence of detected radiation carcinogenesis is in full correspondence with the most conservative a priori expectations. Regarding the cover-up claims, rational choice analysis was performed. Such analysis shows that these claims are ill-founded. The present overcautious attitude to radiological hazards should be corrected in order to mitigate the present suffering and to avoid such suffering in the future.

  19. Medical consequences of Chernobyl accident

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Galstyan I.A.

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Aim: to study the long-term effects of acute radiation syndrome (ARS, developed at the victims of the Chernobyl accident. Material and Methods. 237 people were exposed during the accident, 134 of them were diagnosed with ARS. Dynamic observation implies a thorough annual examination in a hospital. Results. In the first 1.5-2 years after the ARS mean group indices of peripheral blood have returned to normal. However, many patients had transient expressed moderate cytopenias. Granulocytopenia, thrombocytopenia, lymphopenia and erythropenia were the most frequently observed things during the first 5 years after the accident. After 5 years their occurences lowered. In 11 patients the radiation cataract was detected. A threshold dose for its development is a dose of 3.2 Gy Long-term effects of local radiation lesions (LRL range from mild skin figure smoothing to a distinct fibrous scarring, contractures, persistently recurrent late radiation ulcers. During all years of observation we found 8 solid tumors, including 2 thyroid cancers. 5 hematologic diseases were found. During 29 years 26 ARS survivors died of various causes. Conclusion. The health of ones with long-term ARS effects is determined by the evolution of the LRL effects on skin, radiation cataracts, hema-tological diseases and the accession of of various somatic diseases, not caused by radiation.

  20. Review of methodology for accident consequence assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Strenge, D.L.; Soldat, J.K.; Watson, E.C.

    1978-09-01

    This report reviews current methodologies for reactor accident consequence analysis and describes areas where modifications are warranted. Methodologies reviewed are: (1) Models in Regulatory Guides 1.109, 1.111 and 1.113 used for evaluation of compliance with 10 CFR 50 Appendix I; (2) Models in Regulatory Guides used for evaluation of consequences from accidents of Classes 3-8; (3) Models for evaluation of Class 9 accidents presented in the Reactor Safety Study; and (4) Models in the Liquid Pathway Generic Study. The review is designed to aid in the ultimate goal of selection of a comprehensive set of models to extend the Class 9 methodology of the Reactor Safety Study to the analysis of Classes 3-8 accidents.

  1. The Chernobyl accident consequences; Consequences de l'accident de Tchernobyl

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-04-01

    Five teen years later, Tchernobyl remains the symbol of the greater industrial nuclear accident. To take stock on this accident, this paper proposes a chronology of the events and presents the opinion of many international and national organizations. It provides also web sites references concerning the environmental and sanitary consequences of the Tchernobyl accident, the economic actions and propositions for the nuclear safety improvement in the East Europe. (A.L.B.)

  2. Consequences of severe nuclear accidents in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seibert, Petra; Arnold, Delia; Mraz, Gabriele; Arnold, Nikolaus; Gufler, Klaus; Kromp-Kolb, Helga; Kromp, Wolfgang; Sutter, Philipp

    2013-04-01

    A first part of the presentation is devoted to the consequences of the severe accident in the 1986 Chernobyl NPP. It lead to a substantial radioactive contaminated of large parts of Europe and thus raised the awareness for off-site nuclear accident consequences. Spatial patterns of the (transient) contamination of the air and (persistent) contamination of the ground were studied by both measurements and model simulations. For a variety of reasons, ground contamination measurements have variability at a range of spatial scales. Results will be reviewed and discussed. Model simulations, including inverse modelling, have shown that the standard source term as defined in the ATMES study (1990) needs to be updated. Sensitive measurements of airborne activities still reveal the presence of low levels of airborne radiocaesium over the northern hemisphere which stems from resuspension. Over time scales of months and years, the distribution of radionuclides in the Earth system is constantly changing, for example relocated within plants, between plants and soil, in the soil, and into water bodies. Motivated by the permanent risk of transboundary impacts from potential major nuclear accidents, the multidisciplinary project flexRISK (see http://flexRISK.boku.ac.at) has been carried out from 2009 to 2012 in Austria to quantify such risks and hazards. An overview of methods and results of flexRISK is given as a second part of the presentation. For each of the 228 NPPs, severe accidents were identified together with relevant inventories, release fractions, and release frequencies. Then, Europe-wide dispersion and dose calculations were performed for 2788 cases, using the Lagrangian particle model FLEXPART. Maps of single-case results as well as various aggregated risk parameters were produced. It was found that substantial consequences (intervention measures) are possible for distances up to 500-1000 km, and occur more frequently for a distance range up to 100-300 km, which is in

  3. A POTENTIAL APPLICATION OF UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS TO DOE-STD-3009-94 ACCIDENT ANALYSIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Palmrose, D E; Yang, J M

    2007-05-10

    The objective of this paper is to assess proposed transuranic waste accident analysis guidance and recent software improvements in a Windows-OS version of MACCS2 that allows the inputting of parameter uncertainty. With this guidance and code capability, there is the potential to perform a quantitative uncertainty assessment of unmitigated accident releases with respect to the 25 rem Evaluation Guideline (EG) of DOE-STD-3009-94 CN3 (STD-3009). Historically, the classification of safety systems in a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facility's safety basis has involved how subject matter experts qualitatively view uncertainty in the STD-3009 Appendix A accident analysis methodology. Specifically, whether consequence uncertainty could be larger than previously evaluated so the site-specific accident consequences may challenge the EG. This paper assesses whether a potential uncertainty capability for MACCS2 could provide a stronger technical basis as to when the consequences from a design basis accident (DBA) truly challenges the 25 rem EG.

  4. Informational uncertainties of risk assessment about accidents of chemicals

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    An analysis system of informational uncertainties for accidental risk assessment of chemicals is introduced. Statistical test methods and fuzzy sets method can do the quantitative analysis of the input parameters. The uncertainties of the model can be used by quantitative compared method for the leakage accidents of chemicals. The estimation of the leaking time is important for discussing accidental source term. The uncertain analyses of the release accident for pipeline gas (CO) liquid chlorine and liquid propane gas (LPG) have been discussed.

  5. The chernobyl accident 20 years on: an assessment of the health consequences and the international response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baverstock, Keith; Williams, Dillwyn

    2006-09-01

    The Chernobyl accident in 1986 caused widespread radioactive contamination and enormous concern. Twenty years later, the World Health Organization and the International Atomic Energy Authority issued a generally reassuring statement about the consequences. Accurate assessment of the consequences is important to the current debate on nuclear power. Our objectives in this study were to evaluate the health impact of the Chernobyl accident, assess the international response to the accident, and consider how to improve responses to future accidents. So far, radiation to the thyroid from radioisotopes of iodine has caused several thousand cases of thyroid cancer but very few deaths ; exposed children were most susceptible. The focus on thyroid cancer has diverted attention from possible nonthyroid effects, such as mini-satellite instability, which is potentially important. The international response to the accident was inadequate and uncoordinated, and has been unjustifiably reassuring. Accurate assessment of Chernobyl's future health effects is not currently possible in the light of dose uncertainties, current debates over radiation actions, and the lessons from the late consequences of atomic bomb exposure. Because of the uncertainties over the dose from and the consequences of the Chernobyl accident, it is essential that investigations of its effects should be broadened and supported for the long term. Because of the problems with the international response to Chernobyl, the United Nations should initiate an independent review of the actions and assignments of the agencies concerned, with recommendations for dealing with future international-scale accidents. These should involve independent scientists and ensure cooperation rather than rivalry.

  6. Incorporation of phenomenological uncertainties in probabilistic safety analysis - application to LMFBR core disruptive accident energetics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Najafi, B; Theofanous, T G; Rumble, E T; Atefi, B

    1984-08-01

    This report describes a method for quantifying frequency and consequence uncertainty distribution associated with core disruptive accidents (CDAs). The method was developed to estimate the frequency and magnitude of energy impacting the reactor vessel head of the Clinch River Breeder Plant (CRBRP) given the occurrence of hypothetical CDAs. The methodology is illustrated using the CRBR example.

  7. [The Fukushima nuclear accident: consequences for Japan and for us].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grosche, B

    2013-04-01

    The Fukushima accident was the consequence of a preceding 2-fold natural catastrophe: the earth quake of 11 March 2011 and the subsequent tsunami. Due to favourable winds and to evacuation measures the radiation exposure to the general population in Japan as a whole and with some exceptions in the region outside the evacuation zone, too, was low. In this article the attempt is made to give an estimate of health consequences to the public. This is based upon WHO's dose estimates, knowledge of the consequences of the Chernobyl accident, of the atmospheric nuclear bomb testing in Kazakhstan and on the risk of childhood leukaemia after low dose radiation exposure. For Germany, there was no radiation threat due to the accident. Nonetheless, the events in Japan made clear that the rules and standards that were developed for the case of a reactor accident need to be revised.

  8. First international workshop on severe accidents and their consequences. [Chernobyl Accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1989-07-01

    An international workshop on past severe nuclear accidents and their consequences was held in Dagomys region of Sochi, USSR on October 30--November 3, 1989. The plan of this meeting was approved by the USSR Academy of Sciences and by the USSR State Committee of the Utilization of Atomic Energy. The meeting was held under the umbrella of the ANS-SNS agreement of cooperation. Topics covered include analysis of the Chernobyl accident, safety measures for RBMK type reactors and consequences of the Chernobyl accident including analysis of the ecological, genetic and psycho-social factors. Separate reports are processed separately for the data bases. (CBS)

  9. Offsite Radiological Consequence Analysis for the Bounding Flammable Gas Accident

    CERN Document Server

    Carro, C A

    2003-01-01

    This document quantifies the offsite radiological consequences of the bounding flammable gas accident for comparison with the 25 rem Evaluation Guideline established in DOE-STD-3009, Appendix A. The bounding flammable gas accident is a detonation in a single-shell tank The calculation applies reasonably conservation input parameters in accordance with DOE-STD-3009, Appendix A, guidance. Revision 1 incorporates comments received from Office of River Protection.

  10. MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chanin, D.I. (Technadyne Engineering Consultants, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (USA)); Sprung, J.L.; Ritchie, L.T.; Jow, Hong-Nian (Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (USA))

    1990-02-01

    This report describes the MACCS computer code. The purpose of this code is to simulate the impact of severe accidents at nuclear power plants on the surrounding environment. MACCS has been developed for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission to replace the previous CRAC2 code, and it incorporates many improvements in modeling flexibility in comparison to CRAC2. The principal phenomena considered in MACCS are atmospheric transport, mitigative actions based on dose projection, dose accumulation by a number of pathways including food and water ingestion, early and latent health effects, and economic costs. The MACCS code can be used for a variety of applications. These include (1) probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of nuclear power plants and other nuclear facilities, (2) sensitivity studies to gain a better understanding of the parameters important to PRA, and (3) cost-benefit analysis. This report is composed of three volumes. This document, Volume 1, the Users's Guide, describes the input data requirements of the MACCS code and provides directions for its use as illustrated by three sample problems.

  11. MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jow, H.N.; Sprung, J.L.; Ritchie, L.T. (Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (USA)); Rollstin, J.A. (GRAM, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (USA)); Chanin, D.I. (Technadyne Engineering Consultants, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (USA))

    1990-02-01

    This report describes the MACCS computer code. The purpose of this code is to simulate the impact of severe accidents at nuclear power plants on the surrounding environment. MACCS has been developed for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission to replace the previously used CRAC2 code, and it incorporates many improvements in modeling flexibility in comparison to CRAC2. The principal phenomena considered in MACCS are atmospheric transport, mitigative actions based on dose projection, dose accumulation by a number of pathways including food and water ingestion, early and latent health effects, and economic costs. The MACCS code can be used for a variety of applications. These include (1) probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of nuclear power plants and other nuclear facilities, (2) sensitivity studies to gain a better understanding of the parameters important to PRA, and (3) cost-benefit analysis. This report is composed of three volumes. Volume I, the User's Guide, describes the input data requirements of the MACCS code and provides directions for its use as illustrated by three sample problems. Volume II, the Model Description, describes the underlying models that are implemented in the code, and Volume III, the Programmer's Reference Manual, describes the code's structure and database management. 59 refs., 14 figs., 15 tabs.

  12. MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rollstin, J.A. (GRAM, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (USA)); Chanin, D.I. (Technadyne Engineering Consultants, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (USA)); Jow, H.N. (Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (USA))

    1990-02-01

    This report describes the MACCS computer code. The purpose of this code is to simulate the impact of severe accidents at nuclear power plants on the surrounding environment. MACCS has been developed for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission to replace the previously used CRAC2 code, and it incorporates many improvements in modeling flexibility in comparison to CRAC2. The principal phenomena considered in MACCS are atmospheric transport, mitigative actions based on dose projections, dose accumulation by a number of pathways including food and water ingestion, early and latent health effects, and economic costs. The MACCS code can be used for a variety of applications. These include (1) probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of nuclear power plants and other nuclear facilities, (2) sensitivity studies to gain a better understanding of the parameters important to PRA, and (3) cost-benefit analysis. This report is composed of three volumes. Volume I, the User's Guide, describes the input data requirements of the MACCS code and provides directions for its use as illustrated by three sample problems. Volume II, the Model Description, describes the underlying models that are implemented in the code, and Volume III, the Programmer's Reference Manual, describes the code's structure and database management.

  13. Radiological Consequence Analyses Following a Hypothetical Severe Accident in Japan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Juyub; Kim, Juyoul [FNC Technology Co., Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    In order to reflect the lessons learned from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident, a simulator which is named NANAS (Northeast Asia Nuclear Accident Simulator) for overseas nuclear accident has been developed. It is composed of three modules: source-term estimation, atmospheric dispersion prediction and dose assessment. For the source-term estimation module, the representative reactor types were selected as CPR1000, BWR5 and BWR6 for China, Japan and Taiwan, respectively. Considering the design characteristics of each reactor type, the source-term estimation module simulates the transient of design basis accident and severe accident. The atmospheric dispersion prediction module analyzes the transport and dispersion of radioactive materials and prints out the air and ground concentration. Using the concentration result, the dose assessment module calculates effective dose and thyroid dose in the Korean Peninsula region. In this study, a hypothetical severe accident in Japan was simulated to demonstrate the function of NANAS. As a result, the radiological consequence to Korea was estimated from the accident. PC-based nuclear accident simulator, NANAS, has been developed. NANAS contains three modules: source-term estimation, atmospheric dispersion prediction and dose assessment. The source-term estimation module simulates a nuclear accident for the representative reactor types in China, Japan and Taiwan. Since the maximum calculation speed is 16 times than real time, it is possible to estimate the source-term release swiftly in case of the emergency. The atmospheric dispersion prediction module analyzes the transport and dispersion of radioactive materials in wide range including the Northeast Asia. Final results of the dose assessment module are a map projection and time chart of effective dose and thyroid dose. A hypothetical accident in Japan was simulated by NANAS. The radioactive materials were released during the first 24 hours and the source

  14. Cassini Spacecraft Uncertainty Analysis Data and Methodology Review and Update/Volume 1: Updated Parameter Uncertainty Models for the Consequence Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    WHEELER, TIMOTHY A.; WYSS, GREGORY D.; HARPER, FREDERICK T.

    2000-11-01

    Uncertainty distributions for specific parameters of the Cassini General Purpose Heat Source Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (GPHS-RTG) Final Safety Analysis Report consequence risk analysis were revised and updated. The revisions and updates were done for all consequence parameters for which relevant information exists from the joint project on Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of European Communities.

  15. Hanford Waste Tank Bump Accident and Consequence Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    BRATZEL, D.R.

    2000-06-20

    This report provides a new evaluation of the Hanford tank bump accident analysis and consequences for incorporation into the Authorization Basis. The analysis scope is for the safe storage of waste in its current configuration in single-shell and double-shell tanks.

  16. Consequences to health of the Chernobyl accident; Helbredsmaessige konsekvenser af reaktorulykken i Tjernobyl

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sewerin, I. [Royal Dental College, Dept. of Radiology, Copenhagen (Denmark)

    2001-07-01

    The Chernobyl accident in 1986 has been and still is the subject of great interest. Journalistic reports often contain exaggerations and undocumented statements and much uncertainty about the true consequences of the accident prevails in the population. This article reviews the current literature with the focus on reports from official commissions and documentation in the form of controlled studies. The fatal deterministic consequences comprise about 30 victims. The most important outcome is a marked increase in the incidence of thyroid cancer in children and adolescents in the most heavily contaminated area. Furthermore, pronounced psychosocial problems are dominant in the population of the contaminated area. Other significant and documented health consequences are not seen. (au)

  17. Nuclear Accidents: Consequences for Human, Society and Energy Sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. A. Bolshov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article examines radiation and hygienic regulations with regard to the elimination of consequences of the Chernobyl NPP accident in the context of relationships with other aspects, primarily socio-economic and political factors. This experience is reasonable to take into account when defining criteria in other regulatory fields, for example, in radioactive waste classification and remediation of areas. The article presents an analysis of joint features and peculiarities of nuclear accidents in the industry and energy sectors. It is noted that the scale of global consequences of the Chernobyl NPP accident is defined by the large-scale release of radioactivity into the environment, as well as an affiliation of the nuclear installation with the energy sector. Large-scale radiation accidents affect the most diverse spheres of human activities, what, in its turn, evokes the reverse reaction from the society and its institutions, including involvement of political means of settlement. If the latter is seeing for criteria that are scientifically justified and feasible, then the preconditions for minimizing socio-economic impacts are created. In other cases, political decisions, such as nuclear units’ shutdown and phasing out of nuclear energy, appear to be an economic price which society, as a whole and a single industry sector, pay to compensate the negative public response. The article describes fundamental changes in approaches to ensure nuclear and radiation safety that occurred after the Chernobyl NPP accident. Multiple and negative consequences of the Chernobyl accident for human and society are balanced to some extent by a higher level of operational safety, emergency preparedness, and life-cycle safety. The article indicates that harmonization and ensuring consistency of regulations that involve different aspects of nuclear and radiation safety are important to implement practical solutions to the nuclear legacy problems. The

  18. Genetic consequences of the Chernobyl accident for Belarus republic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lazjuk, G.; Nikolaev, D.; Novikova, I. [Belarus Institute for Hereditary Diseases, Minsk (Belarus); Satow, Yukio

    1998-03-01

    various uncertainties. Only direct methods, which count the final effect, with all their drawbacks, can provide accurate information on genetic losses. We have estimated possible genetic consequences for the residents of Belarus Republic due to the Chernobyl accident by studying malformations found in legal medical abortuses and by counting congenital anomalies in fetuses and newborns. (J.P.N.)

  19. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Methodology for the containment, source term, consequence, and risk integration analyses; Volume 1, Revision 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gorham, E.D.; Breeding, R.J.; Brown, T.D.; Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Helton, J.C. [Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States); Murfin, W.B. [Technadyne Engineering Consultants, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Hawaii Univ., Hilo, HI (United States)

    1993-12-01

    NUREG-1150 examines the risk to the public from five nuclear power plants. The NUREG-1150 plant studies are Level III probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) and, as such, they consist of four analysis components: accident frequency analysis, accident progression analysis, source term analysis, and consequence analysis. This volume summarizes the methods utilized in performing the last three components and the assembly of these analyses into an overall risk assessment. The NUREG-1150 analysis approach is based on the following ideas: (1) general and relatively fast-running models for the individual analysis components, (2) well-defined interfaces between the individual analysis components, (3) use of Monte Carlo techniques together with an efficient sampling procedure to propagate uncertainties, (4) use of expert panels to develop distributions for important phenomenological issues, and (5) automation of the overall analysis. Many features of the new analysis procedures were adopted to facilitate a comprehensive treatment of uncertainty in the complete risk analysis. Uncertainties in the accident frequency, accident progression and source term analyses were included in the overall uncertainty assessment. The uncertainties in the consequence analysis were not included in this assessment. A large effort was devoted to the development of procedures for obtaining expert opinion and the execution of these procedures to quantify parameters and phenomena for which there is large uncertainty and divergent opinions in the reactor safety community.

  20. Degraded core accidents for the Sizewell PWR A sensitivity analysis of the radiological consequences

    CERN Document Server

    Kelly, G N; Clarke, R H; Ferguson, L; Haywood, S M; Hemming, C R; Jones, J A

    1982-01-01

    The radiological impact of degraded core accidents postulated for the Sizewell PWR was assessed in an earlier study. In this report the sensitivity of the predicted consequences to variation in the values of a number of important parameters is investigated for one of the postulated accidental releases. The parameters subjected to sensitivity analyses are the dose-mortality relationship for bone marrow irradiation, the energy content of the release, the warning time before the release to the environment, and the dry deposition velocity for airborne material. These parameters were identified as among the more important in determining the uncertainty in the results obtained in the initial study. With a few exceptions the predicted consequences were found to be not very sensitive to the parameter values investigated, the range of variation in the consequences for the limiting values of each parameter rarely exceeded a factor of a few and in many cases was considerably less. The conclusions reached are, however, p...

  1. Guide for licensing evaluations using CRAC2: A computer program for calculating reactor accident consequences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    White, J.E.; Roussin, R.W.; Gilpin, H.

    1988-12-01

    A version of the CRAC2 computer code applicable for use in analyses of consequences and risks of reactor accidents in case work for environmental statements has been implemented for use on the Nuclear Regulatory Commission Data General MV/8000 computer system. Input preparation is facilitated through the use of an interactive computer program which operates on an IBM personal computer. The resulting CRAC2 input deck is transmitted to the MV/8000 by using an error-free file transfer mechanism. To facilitate the use of CRAC2 at NRC, relevant background material on input requirements and model descriptions has been extracted from four reports - ''Calculations of Reactor Accident Consequences,'' Version 2, NUREG/CR-2326 (SAND81-1994) and ''CRAC2 Model Descriptions,'' NUREG/CR-2552 (SAND82-0342), ''CRAC Calculations for Accident Sections of Environmental Statements, '' NUREG/CR-2901 (SAND82-1693), and ''Sensitivity and Uncertainty Studies of the CRAC2 Computer Code,'' NUREG/CR-4038 (ORNL-6114). When this background information is combined with instructions on the input processor, this report provides a self-contained guide for preparing CRAC2 input data with a specific orientation toward applications on the MV/8000. 8 refs., 11 figs., 10 tabs.

  2. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Quantification of major input parameters: MAACS (MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System) input

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sprung, J.L.; Jow, H-N (Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (USA)); Rollstin, J.A. (GRAM, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (USA)); Helton, J.C. (Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (USA))

    1990-12-01

    Estimation of offsite accident consequences is the customary final step in a probabilistic assessment of the risks of severe nuclear reactor accidents. Recently, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission reassessed the risks of severe accidents at five US power reactors (NUREG-1150). Offsite accident consequences for NUREG-1150 source terms were estimated using the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS). Before these calculations were performed, most MACCS input parameters were reviewed, and for each parameter reviewed, a best-estimate value was recommended. This report presents the results of these reviews. Specifically, recommended values and the basis for their selection are presented for MACCS atmospheric and biospheric transport, emergency response, food pathway, and economic input parameters. Dose conversion factors and health effect parameters are not reviewed in this report. 134 refs., 15 figs., 110 tabs.

  3. Fukushima and Chernobyl accidents, a preliminary compared approach of their sanitary consequences; Accidents de Fukushima et Tchernobyl, une premiere approche comparee de leurs consequences sanitaires

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Masse, R. [Academie des technologies, 75 - Paris (France)

    2011-05-15

    It is too early to draw a definitive account of the sanitary impacts of the Fukushima accident but the author tries to assess them by comparing with Chernobyl accident. It appears that the sanitary consequences will be far less dramatic because of lower radiation doses and efficient counter-measures taken quickly after the accident such as evacuation of contaminated areas and restriction about the consumption of food produced locally. (A.C.)

  4. Prevention of "simple accidents at work" with major consequences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Kirsten

    2016-01-01

    of prevention or safety methodologies and procedures established for major accidents are applicable to simple accidents. The article goes back to basics about accidents causes, to review the nature of successful prevention techniques and to analyze what have been constraints to getting this knowledge used more...... occupational accidents a year were notified leading to 4500 fatalities and 90,000 permanent disabilities each year. The article looks at the concept ‘‘accident’’ to find similarities and distinctions between major and simple accident characteristics. The purpose is to find to what extent the same kinds......The concept ‘‘simple accidents’’ is understood as traumatic events with one victim. In the last 10 years many European countries have seen a decline in the number of fatalities, but there still remain many severe accidents at work. In the years 2009–2010 in European countries 2.0–2.4 million...

  5. Radioecological and dosimetric consequences of Chernobyl accident in France; Consequences radioecologiques et dosimetriques de l`accident de Tchernobyl en France

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Renaud, Ph.; Beaugelin, K.; Maubert, H.; Ledenvic, Ph

    1997-12-31

    After ten years and the taking in account of numerous data, it can be affirmed that the dosimetric consequences of Chernobyl accident will have been limited in France. for the period 1986-2046, the individual middle efficient dose commitment, for the area the most reached by depositing is inferior to 1500 {mu}Sv, that represents about 1% of middle natural exposure in the same time. but mountains and forests can have more important surface activities than in plain. Everywhere else, it can be considered that the effects of Chernobyl accident are disappearing. the levels of cesium 137 are now often inferior to what they were before the accident. (N.C.)

  6. Uncertainty analysis of accident notification time and emergency medical service response time in work zone traffic accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Qiang; Weng, Jinxian

    2013-01-01

    Taking into account the uncertainty caused by exogenous factors, the accident notification time (ANT) and emergency medical service (EMS) response time were modeled as 2 random variables following the lognormal distribution. Their mean values and standard deviations were respectively formulated as the functions of environmental variables including crash time, road type, weekend, holiday, light condition, weather, and work zone type. Work zone traffic accident data from the Fatality Analysis Report System between 2002 and 2009 were utilized to determine the distributions of the ANT and the EMS arrival time in the United States. A mixed logistic regression model, taking into account the uncertainty associated with the ANT and the EMS response time, was developed to estimate the risk of death. The results showed that the uncertainty of the ANT was primarily influenced by crash time and road type, whereas the uncertainty of EMS response time is greatly affected by road type, weather, and light conditions. In addition, work zone accidents occurring during a holiday and in poor light conditions were found to be statistically associated with a longer mean ANT and longer EMS response time. The results also show that shortening the ANT was a more effective approach in reducing the risk of death than the EMS response time in work zones. To shorten the ANT and the EMS response time, work zone activities are suggested to be undertaken during non-holidays, during the daytime, and in good weather and light conditions.

  7. Assessment of risk, damage and severity of consequences of accident into storage for LPG

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tzenova, Zlatina

    2016-12-01

    In this work an accident scenario in store for LPG is considered and consequences - forming a toxic cloud of vapor, fire and blast are modeled through models built into the software product ALOHA. The risk assessment of contamination with certain concentration is done, provided that it is an accident. Definitions for model mixture and risk assessment using geometric probability are introduced.

  8. Consequences and countermeasures in a nuclear power accident: Chernobyl experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirichenko, Vladimir A; Kirichenko, Alexander V; Werts, Day E

    2012-09-01

    Despite the tragic accidents in Fukushima and Chernobyl, the nuclear power industry will continue to contribute to the production of electric energy worldwide until there are efficient and sustainable alternative sources of energy. The Chernobyl nuclear accident, which occurred 26 years ago in the former Soviet Union, released an immense amount of radioactivity over vast territories of Belarus, Ukraine, and the Russian Federation, extending into northern Europe, and became the most severe accident in the history of the nuclear industry. This disaster was a result of numerous factors including inadequate nuclear power plant design, human errors, and violation of safety measures. The lessons learned from nuclear accidents will continue to strengthen the safety design of new reactor installations, but with more than 400 active nuclear power stations worldwide and 104 reactors in the Unites States, it is essential to reassess fundamental issues related to the Chernobyl experience as it continues to evolve. This article summarizes early and late events of the incident, the impact on thyroid health, and attempts to reduce agricultural radioactive contamination.

  9. Radioecological and dosimetric consequences of the Chernobyl accident in France; Consequences radioecologiques et dosimetriques de l'accident de Tchernobyl en France

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Renaud, Ph.; Beaugelin, K.; Maubert, H.; Ledenvic, Ph. [Inst. de Protection et de Surete Nucleaire, CEA Centre d' Etudes de Fontenay-aux-Roses, 92 (France)

    1997-11-01

    This study has as objective a survey of the radioecological and dosimetric consequences of the Chernobyl accident in France, as well as a prognosis for the years to come. It was requested by the Direction of Nuclear Installation Safety (DSIN) in relation to different organisms which effected measurements after this accident. It is based on the use of combined results of measurements and modelling by means of the code ASTRAL developed at IPSN. Various measurements obtained from five authorities and institutions, were made available, such as: activity of air and water, soil, processed food, agricultural and natural products. However, to achieve the survey still a modelling is needed. ASTRAL is a code for evaluating the ecological consequences of an accident. It allows establishing the correspondence between the soil Remnant Surface Activities (RSA, in Bq.m{sup -2}), the activity concentration of the agricultural production and the individual and collective doses resulting from external and internal exposures (due to inhalation and ingestion of contaminated nurture). The results of principal synthesis documents on the Chernobyl accident and its consequences were also used. The report is structured in nine sections, as follows: 1.Introduction; 2.Objective and methodology; 3.Characterization of radioactive depositions; 4;Remnant surface activities; 5.Contamination of agricultural products and foods; 6.Contamination of natural, semi-natural products and of drinking water; 7.Dosimetric evaluations; 8.Proposals for the environmental surveillance; 9.Conclusion. Finally, after ten years, one concludes that at presentthe dosimetric consequences of the Chernobyl accident in France were rather limited. For the period 1986-2046 the average individual effective dose estimated for the most struck zone is lower than 1500 {mu}Sv, which represents almost 1% of the average natural exposure for the same period. At present, the cesium 137 levels are at often inferior to those recorded

  10. Severe accident approach - final report. Evaluation of design measures for severe accident prevention and consequence mitigation.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tentner, A. M.; Parma, E.; Wei, T.; Wigeland, R.; Nuclear Engineering Division; SNL; INL

    2010-03-01

    An important goal of the US DOE reactor development program is to conceptualize advanced safety design features for a demonstration Sodium Fast Reactor (SFR). The treatment of severe accidents is one of the key safety issues in the design approach for advanced SFR systems. It is necessary to develop an in-depth understanding of the risk of severe accidents for the SFR so that appropriate risk management measures can be implemented early in the design process. This report presents the results of a review of the SFR features and phenomena that directly influence the sequence of events during a postulated severe accident. The report identifies the safety features used or proposed for various SFR designs in the US and worldwide for the prevention and/or mitigation of Core Disruptive Accidents (CDA). The report provides an overview of the current SFR safety approaches and the role of severe accidents. Mutual understanding of these design features and safety approaches is necessary for future collaborations between the US and its international partners as part of the GEN IV program. The report also reviews the basis for an integrated safety approach to severe accidents for the SFR that reflects the safety design knowledge gained in the US during the Advanced Liquid Metal Reactor (ALMR) and Integral Fast Reactor (IFR) programs. This approach relies on inherent reactor and plant safety performance characteristics to provide additional safety margins. The goal of this approach is to prevent development of severe accident conditions, even in the event of initiators with safety system failures previously recognized to lead directly to reactor damage.

  11. CONSEQUENCES FOR HEALTH AFTER THE CHERNOBYL ACCIDENT: MAIN RESULTS AND UNSOLVED PROBLEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. K. Gus’kova

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Data of researches of the consequences for health after the Chernobyl accident of 1986 are generalized. All these years all over the world and especially in our country the basic parameters were studied describing type and the reason of the accident, doses levels for various groups of persons and a condition of their physical and sincere health. Accumulation of the extensive information allows returning to the initial concepts which have arisen directly after the accident, to estimate critically reliability accepted at that time criteria and adequacy of measures for overcoming and minimization of the consequences of the accident for health. In a basis of an assessment of the exposure levels and possible consequences for health in early timeframes have been put the information on the capacity of doses scale-radiation on various distances from the damaged reactor both total activity and structure of emission of radioactive substances. Three basic groups of the persons involved in the emergency with a various combination of risk factors for their health are allocated: the personnel of emergency changes, participants of liquidation of the accident consequences, the population of emergency emission zones. Consequences for health for these groups and principles of the further supervision over them are estimated. The increase of leukemia among the reasons for death (5 of 21 attracts attention. The group of patients transferred acute radiation syndrome in connection with the Chernobyl accident differs for the reasons for death in the remote timeframes from participants of other radiating accidents. By retrospective consideration there is a question on a possibility of the insufficient account of toxic influences accompanying the exposure. Comparison of urgent decisions and the retrospective analysis of assessments during the early period of accident allow considering these early decisions adequate to volume of the information available during this

  12. Consequences in Norway after a hypothetical accident at Sellafield - Predicted impacts on the environment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thoerring, H.; Liland, A.

    2010-12-15

    This report deals with the environmental consequences in Norway after a hypothetical accident at Sellafield. The investigation is limited to the terrestrial environment, and focus on animals grazing natural pastures, plus wild berries and fungi. Only 137Cs is considered. The predicted consequences are severe, in particular for mutton and goat milk production. (Author)

  13. ASSESSMENT OF THE FUKUSIMA NUCLEAR POWER PLANT ACCIDENT CONSEQUENCES BY THE POPULATION IN THE FAR EAST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. V. Arkhangelskaya

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The article analyzes the attitude of the population in the five regions of the Far East to the consequences of the accident at the Fukushimai nuclear power plant, as well as the issues of informing about the accident. The analysis of public opinion is based on the data obtained by anonymous questionnaire survey performed in November 2011. In spite of the rather active informing and objective information on the absence of the contamination, most of the population of the Russian Far East believes that radioactive contamination is presented in the areas of their residence, and the main cause of this contamination is the nuclear accident in Japan.

  14. Study on the code system for the off-site consequences assessment of severe nuclear accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Sora; Mn, Byung Il; Park, Ki Hyun; Yang, Byung Mo; Suh, Kyung Suk [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-12-15

    The importance of severe nuclear accidents and probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) were brought to international attention with the occurrence of severe nuclear accidents caused by the extreme natural disaster at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in Japan. In Korea, studies on level 3 PSA had made little progress until recently. The code systems of level 3 PSA, MACCS2 (MELCORE Accident Consequence Code System 2, US), COSYMA (COde SYstem from MAria, EU) and OSCAAR (Off-Site Consequence Analysis code for Atmospheric Releases in reactor accidents, JAPAN), were reviewed in this study, and the disadvantages and limitations of MACCS2 were also analyzed. Experts from Korea and abroad pointed out that the limitations of MACCS2 include the following: MACCS2 cannot simulate multi-unit accidents/release from spent fuel pools, and its atmospheric dispersion is based on a simple Gaussian plume model. Some of these limitations have been improved in the updated versions of MACCS2. The absence of a marine and aquatic dispersion model and the limited simulating range of food-chain and economic models are also important aspects that need to be improved. This paper is expected to be utilized as basic research material for developing a Korean code system for assessing off-site consequences of severe nuclear accidents.

  15. Consequences of the Chernobyl accident for reindeer husbandry in Sweden

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustaf Åhman

    1990-09-01

    Full Text Available Large parts of the reindeer hearding area in Sweden were contaminated with radioactive caesium from the Chernobyl fallout. During the first year after the accident no food with activity concentrations exceeding 300 Bq/kg was allowed to be sold in Sweden. This meant that about 75% of all reindeer meat produced in Sweden during the autumn and winter 1986/87 were rejected because of too high caesium activités. In May 1987 the maximum level for Cs-137 in reindeer, game and fresh-water fish was raised to 1500 Bq/kg. During the last two year, 1987/88 and 1988/89, about 25% of the slaughtered reindeer has had activities exceeding this limit. The effective long-time halflife or radiocaesium in reindeer after the nuclear weapon tests in the sixties was about 7 years. If this halflife is correct also for the Chernobyl fallout it will take about 35 years before most of the reinder in Sweden are below the current limit 1500 Bq/kg in the winter. However, by feeding the animals uncontaminated food for about two months, many reindeer can be saved for human consumption.

  16. RADIOLOGICAL AND MEDICAL CONSEQUENCES OF THE CHERNOBYL ACCIDENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. G. Bebeshko

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available From the position of a 25-years’ experience to overcome the health effects of Chernobyl the dynamics of the radiation environment, the first summarizing at the international level (1988, the results of completed research and practical monitoring are analyzed. Cohort of acute radiation syndrome (ARS survivors under medical observation at the S.I. "Research Center for Radiation Medicine of the National Academy of Medical Sciences of Ukraine" is the largest. Within the 25 years the functional state of the major organs and body systems, and metabolic homeostasis for this category of persons were studied, a comprehensive assessment of their health, mental and physical performance were given, and risk factors and peculiarities of stochastic and non-stochastic pathology courses were identified, as well as a system of rehabilitation patients after ARS was developed. ARS survivors are suffering from chronic diseases of internal organs and systems (from 5-7 to 10-12 diagnoses at the same time. A correlation between acute radiation effects and specific HLA phenotypes were revealed. The dynamics of the immune system recovery after irradiation was studied. The role and prognostic value of telomere length and programmed cell death of lymphocytes in the formation of the cellular effects of ionizing radiation were determined for the first time. Differences between spontaneous and radiation-induced acute myeloid leukemias were found. Dose-dependent neuropsychiatric, neurophysiological, neuropsychological and neuroimaging deviations were identified after irradiation at doses above 0.3 Sv. It was shown that the lymphocytes of Chernobyl clean-up workers with doses 350 – 690 mGy can induce "the bystander effect" in the non-irradiated cells even after 19 years after exposure. The rates of cancer incidence and mortality of victims, the lessons and key problems to be solved in the third decade after the Chernobyl accident are considered.

  17. Consequences of tritium release to water pathways from postulated accidents in a DOE production reactor (U)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Kula, K.R.; Olson, R.L.; Hamby, D.M. (Savannah River Lab., Aiken, SC (United States))

    1992-03-01

    A full-scale PRA of a DOE production reactor has been completed that considers full release of tritium as part of the severe accident source term. Two classes of postulated reactor accidents, a loss-of-moderator pumping accident and a loss-of-coolant accident, are used to bound the expected dose consequence from liquid pathway release. Population doses from the radiological release associated with the two accidents are compared for aqueous discharge and atmospheric release modes. The expectation values of the distribution of possible values for the societal effective dose equivalent to the general public, given a tritium release to the atmosphere, is 2.8 person-Sv/PBq (9.9 {times} 10{sup {minus}3} person-rem/Ci). The general public drinking water dose to downstream water consumers is 6.5 {times} 10{sup {minus}2} person-Sv/PBq(2.4 {times} 10{sup {minus}4} person-rem/Ci) for aqueous releases to the surface streams eventually reaching the Savannah River. Negligible doses are calculated for freshwater fish and saltwater invertebrate consumption, irrigation, and recreational use of the river, given that an aqueous release is assumed to occur. Relative to the balance of fission products released in a hypothetical severe accident, the tritium-related dose is small. This paper suggests that application of regional models (1610 km radius) will indicate larger dose consequences from short-term tritium releases to the atmosphere than from comparable tritium source terms to water pathways.

  18. Benefits, Consequences, and Uncertainties of Conventional (Exercise) Countermeasure Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ploutz-Snyder, Lori

    2013-01-01

    This presentation will review the pros, cons, and uncertainties of using exercise countermeasures in hypothetical long duration exploration missions. The use of artificial gravity and exercise will be briefly discussed. One benefit to continued use of exercise is related to our extensive experience with spaceflight exercise hardware and programming. Exercise has been a part of each space mission dating back to the 1960's when simple isometric and bungee exercises were performed in the Gemini capsule. Over the next 50 years, exercise hardware improved cumulating in today's ISS suite of exercise equipment: Cycle Ergometer with Vibration Isolation and Stabilization System (CEVIS), Treadmill (T2) and Advanced Resistive Exercise Device (ARED). Today's exercise equipment is the most robust ever to be flown in space and allows the variety and intensity of exercise that might reasonably be expected to maintain muscle mass and function, bone density and cardiovascular fitness. A second benefit is related to the large body of research literature on exercise training. There is a considerable body of supporting research literature including >40,000 peer reviewed research articles on exercise training in humans. A third benefit of exercise is its effectiveness. With the addition of T2 and ARED to our ISS exercise suite, crew member outcomes on standard medical tests have improved. Additionally exercise has other positive side effects such as stress relief, possible improvement of immune function, improved sleep, etc. Exercise is not without its consequences. The major cons to performance of in-flight exercise are the time and equipment required. Currently crew are scheduled 2.5 hrs/day for exercise and there is considerable cost to develop, fly and maintain exercise hardware. While no major injuries have been reported on ISS, there is always some risk of injury with any form of exercise There are several uncertainties going forward; these relate mostly to the development of

  19. Atmospheric transport patterns and possible consequences for the European North after a nuclear accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baklanov, A; Mahura, A; Jaffe, D; Thaning, L; Bergman, R; Andres, R

    2002-01-01

    The main purpose of this study is to examine possible impacts and consequences of a hypothetical accident at the Kola nuclear plant in north-west Russia on different geographical regions: Scandinavia, central Europe, European FSU and Taymyr. The period studied is 1991-1996. An isentropic trajectory model has been used to calculate forward trajectories that originated over the nuclear accident region. Atmospheric transport patterns were identified using the isentropic trajectories and a cluster analysis technique. From the trajectory model results, a number of cases were chosen for examination in detail using more complete transport models. For this purpose, the models MATHEW/ADPIC, DERMA and a newly developed FOA Random Displacement Model have been used to simulate the radionuclide transport and contamination in the case of a nuclear accident and their results have been compared with those of the trajectory modelling. Estimation of the long-term consequences for populations after an accident has been performed for several specific dates by empirical models and correlation between fallout and doses to humans on the basis of the Chernobyl accident exposures in Scandinavia.

  20. Atmospheric transport patterns and possible consequences for the European North after a nuclear accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baklanov, A. E-mail: alb@dmi.min.dk; Mahura, A.; Jaffe, D.; Thaning, L.; Bergman, R.; Andres, R

    2002-07-01

    The main purpose of this study is to examine possible impacts and consequences of a hypothetical accident at the Kola nuclear plant in north-west Russia on different geographical regions: Scandinavia, central Europe, European FSU and Taymyr. The period studied is 1991-1996. An isentropic trajectory model has been used to calculate forward trajectories that originated over the nuclear accident region. Atmospheric transport patterns were identified using the isentropic trajectories and a cluster analysis technique. From the trajectory model results, a number of cases were chosen for examination in detail using more complete transport models. For this purpose, the models MATHEW/ADPIC, DERMA and a newly developed FOA Random Displacement Model have been used to simulate the radionuclide transport and contamination in the case of a nuclear accident and their results have been compared with those of the trajectory modelling. Estimation of the long-term consequences for populations after an accident has been performed for several specific dates by empirical models and correlation between fallout and doses to humans on the basis of the Chernobyl accident exposures in Scandinavia.

  1. Summary of the consequences for the environment of the Chernobyl accident; Synthese sur les consequences environnementales de l`accident de Tchernobyl

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ciffroy, P.

    1996-08-01

    The main conclusions on the environmental consequences of the Chernobyl accident in the former Soviet Union can be summarised as follows: the long term radioactive contamination of the environment can essentially be put down to Cs and Sr and, to a lesser degree, transuranic elements. In the short term, the radioactive iodine fall-out plays a fundamental role; in the countries of the former Soviet Union, it is estimated that 29,300 and 10,200 km{sup 2} of the surface area of the land are respectively contaminated by over 185 and 555 kBq.m{sup -2}. Approximately 1,064,000 people live in areas contaminated by more than 185 kBq.m{sup -2}; acute radioactive fall-out effects have occurred in the 30 km exclusion zone, essentially witnessed by the death of numerous conifers. On average, it will take about twenty years for half the Cs to disappear from the top 10 cm of soil; the level of contamination of food products varies greatly according to soil type. However, we can consider that milk, berries and mushrooms were the most critical foods in the years immediately following the accident and that some of the agricultural counter-measures taken have proved very useful in containing the contamination of food products. Because of the massive iodine leakage, the worst affected organ in the body during the months following the accident was the thyroid gland. In the months following the accident, the presence of radioactive elements on the surface of vegetables which were subsequently eaten proved to be the main source of human contamination; after a rapid fall off in external dose received by the population during the first year, it is now decreasing much more slowly. This phenomenon is mainly due to the very long-life of the radioactive caesium in the soil; approximately 90 % of the total internal dose for the 70 years following the accident have already been received by the local population. The external dose level will be reduced fairly slowly and we can assess that

  2. Radioecological consequences of a potential accident during transport of spent nuclear fuel along an Arctic coastline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iosjpe, M; Reistad, O; Amundsen, I B

    2009-02-01

    This article presents results pertaining to a risk assessment of the potential consequences of a hypothetical accident occurring during the transportation by ship of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) along an Arctic coastline. The findings are based on modelling of potential releases of radionuclides, radionuclide transport and uptake in the marine environment. Modelling work has been done using a revised box model developed at the Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority. Evaluation of the radioecological consequences of a potential accident in the southern part of the Norwegian Current has been made on the basis of calculated collective dose to man, individual doses for the critical group, concentrations of radionuclides in seafood and doses to marine organisms. The results of the calculations indicate a large variability in the investigated parameters above mentioned. On the basis of the calculated parameters the maximum total activity ("accepted accident activity") in the ship, when the parameters that describe the consequences after the examined potential accident are still in agreement with the recommendations and criterions for protection of the human population and the environment, has been evaluated.

  3. Uncertainty analysis of preclosure accident doses for the Yucca Mountain repository

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ma, C.W.; Miller, D.D.; Zavoshy, S.J. [Bechtel National, Inc., San Francisco, CA (USA); Jardine, L.J. [Jardine (L.J.) and Associates, Livermore, CA (USA)

    1990-12-31

    This study presents a generic methodology that can be used to evaluate the uncertainty in the calculated accidental offsite doses at the Yucca Mountain repository during the preclosure period. For demonstration purposes, this methodology is applied to two specific accident scenarios: the first involves a crane dropping an open container with consolidated fuel rods, the second involves container failure during emplacement or removal operations. The uncertainties of thirteen parameters are quantified by various types of probability distributions. The Latin Hypercube Sampling method is used to evaluate the uncertainty of the offsite dose. For the crane-drop scenario with concurrent filter failure, the doses due to the release of airborne fuel particles are calculated to be 0.019, 0.32, and 2.8 rem at confidence levels of 10%, 50%, and 90%, respectively. For the container failure scenario with concurrent filter failure, the 90% confidence-level dose is 0.21 rem. 20 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs.

  4. RADIATION-HYGIENIC AND MEDICAL CONSEQUENCES OF THE СHERNOBYL ACCIDENT: RESULTS AND PROGNOSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. G. Onischenko

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available An article is devoted to the analysis of the radiation situation in the dynamics during the years since the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in 1986. Data on the scope of activities fulfilled for the assessment of the territories radioactive contamination levels and foodstuffs contamination levels, on the values of the exposure doses for the population living on the contaminated territories, on the medical and socio-psychological consequences of the Chernobyl accident is presented. Basic norms and principles, used during the protective measures development and introduction, are considered, their effectiveness is demonstrated. Mistakes emerged during protective measures implementation are analyzed, the prognosis of the population exposure dose values for the 70-year period since the accident and main directions of activities for the contaminated territories remediation and normal life conditions restoration for the population at these territories are presented.

  5. Two decades of radiological accidents direct causes, roots causes and consequences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rozental Jose de Julio

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Practically all Countries utilize radioisotopes in medicine, industry, agriculture and research. The extent to which ionizing radiation practices are employed varies considerably, depending largely upon social and economic conditions and the level of technical skills available in the country. An overview of the majority of practices and the associated hazards will be found in the Table IV to VII of this document. The practices in normal and abnormal operating conditions should follow the basic principles of radiation protection and the Safety of Radiation Sources, considering the IAEA Radiation Protection and the Safety of Radiation Sources, Safety Series 120 and the IAEA Recommendation of the Basic Safety Standards for Radiation Protection, Safety Series Nº 115. The Standards themselves underline the necessity to be able to predict the radiological consequences of emergency conditions and the investigations that should need to be done. This paper describes the major accidents that had happened in the last two decades, provides a methodology for analyses and gives a collection of lessons learned. This will help the Regulatory Authority to review the reasons of vulnerabilities, and to start a Radiation safety and Security Programme to introduce measurescapable to avoid the recurrence of similar events. Although a number of accidents with fatalities have caught the attention of the public in recent year, a safety record has accompanied the widespread use of radiation sources. However, the fact that accidents are uncommon should not give grounds for complacency. No radiological accident is acceptable. From a radiation safety and security of the sources standpoint, accident investigation is necessary to determine what happened, why, when, where and how it occurred and who was (were involved and responsible. The investigation conclusion is an important process toward alertness and feedback to avoid careless attitudes by improving the comprehension

  6. Consequences of tritium release to water pathways from postulated accidents in a DOE production reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Kula, K.R.; Olson, R.L.; Hamby, D.M.

    1991-01-01

    A full-scale PRA of a DOE production reactor has been completed that considers full release of tritium as part of the severe accident source term. Two classes of postulated reactor accidents, a loss-of-moderator pumping accident and a loss-of-coolant accident, are used to bound the expected dose consequence from liquid pathway release. Population doses from the radiological release associated with the two accidents are compared for aqueous discharge and atmospheric release modes. The expectation values of the distribution of possible values for the societal effective dose equivalent to the general public, given a tritium release to the atmosphere, is 2.8 person-Sv/PBq (9.9 {times} 10{sup {minus}3} person-rem/Ci). The general public drinking water dose to downstream water consumers is 6.5 {times} 10{sup {minus}2} person-Sv/Pbq (2.4 {times} 10{sup {minus}4} person-rem/Ci) for aqueous releases to the surface streams eventually reaching the Savannah River. Negligible doses are calculated for freshwater fish and saltwater invertebrate consumption, irrigation, and recreational use of the river, given that an aqueous release is assumed to occur. Relative to the balance of fission products released in a hypothetical severe accident, the tritium-related dose is small. This study suggests that application of regional models (1610 km radius) will indicate larger dose consequences from short-term tritium release to the atmosphere than from comparable tritium source terms to water pathways. However, the water pathways assessment is clearly site-specific, and the overall aqueous dose will be dependent on downstream receptor populations and uses of the river.

  7. Consequences of tritium release to water pathways from postulated accidents in a DOE production reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O`Kula, K.R.; Olson, R.L.; Hamby, D.M.

    1991-12-31

    A full-scale PRA of a DOE production reactor has been completed that considers full release of tritium as part of the severe accident source term. Two classes of postulated reactor accidents, a loss-of-moderator pumping accident and a loss-of-coolant accident, are used to bound the expected dose consequence from liquid pathway release. Population doses from the radiological release associated with the two accidents are compared for aqueous discharge and atmospheric release modes. The expectation values of the distribution of possible values for the societal effective dose equivalent to the general public, given a tritium release to the atmosphere, is 2.8 person-Sv/PBq (9.9 {times} 10{sup {minus}3} person-rem/Ci). The general public drinking water dose to downstream water consumers is 6.5 {times} 10{sup {minus}2} person-Sv/Pbq (2.4 {times} 10{sup {minus}4} person-rem/Ci) for aqueous releases to the surface streams eventually reaching the Savannah River. Negligible doses are calculated for freshwater fish and saltwater invertebrate consumption, irrigation, and recreational use of the river, given that an aqueous release is assumed to occur. Relative to the balance of fission products released in a hypothetical severe accident, the tritium-related dose is small. This study suggests that application of regional models (1610 km radius) will indicate larger dose consequences from short-term tritium release to the atmosphere than from comparable tritium source terms to water pathways. However, the water pathways assessment is clearly site-specific, and the overall aqueous dose will be dependent on downstream receptor populations and uses of the river.

  8. [Short-term psychological consequences of car accidents: an empirical study].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prunas, Antonio; Iavarone, Valentina; Fiorletta, Angela; Madeddu, Fabio

    2009-01-01

    Aim of this study is to investigate short-term (3 and 5 months) psychological consequences of severe motor-vehicle accidents. The sample under investigation is composed of two groups: 8 survivors of severe motor-vehicle accidents with spinal cord injuries (SCI) hospitalized in a Spinal Cord Unit, and 6 survivors who did not require hospitalization. All subjects were assessed twice, three and five months after the accident, on a variety of measures including the CAPS and the BDI-SF. Prevalence of PTSD in the total sample was, 3 months after the accident, 14% with no significant differences between the two groups; some peculiarities in the symptomathological profile emerged as much as subjects with SCI experience avoidance of trauma-related stimuli more frequently. An overall decline in frequency and severity of post-traumatic symptoms between the two assessments was observed in the total sample, though some components (Criterion C symptoms) showed no relevant variations over time. Finally, depressive symptoms, which were characterized by higher severity in the SCI group, showed a significant decline between the two assessments. Our data, although based on a limited sample, might help in tailoring psychological interventions for prevention and treatment of PTSD in survivors of severe motor accidents.

  9. A Taylor-Affine Arithmetic for analyzing the calculation result uncertainty in accident reconstruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Tiefang; Peng, Haitao; Cai, Ming; Wu, Hequan; Hu, Lin

    2016-09-01

    In order to analyze the uncertainty of a reconstructed result, the Interval Algorithm (IA), the Affine Arithmetic (AA) and the Modified Affine Arithmetic (MAA) were introduced firstly, and then a Taylor-Affine Arithmetic (TAA) was proposed based on the MAA and Taylor series. Steps of the TAA, especially in analyzing uncertainty of a simulation result were given. Through the preceding five numerical cases, its application was demonstrated and its feasibility was validated. Results showed that no matter other methods (The IA, AA, the Upper and Lower bound Method, the Finite Difference Method) work well or bad, the TAA work well, even under the condition that the MAA cannot work in some cases because of the division/root operation in these models. Furthermore, in order to make sure that the result obtained from the TAA can be very close to the accurate interval, a simple algorithm was proposed based on the sub-interval technique, its feasibility was validated by two other numerical cases. Finally, a vehicle-pedestrian test was given to demonstrate the application of the TAA in practice. In the vehicle-pedestrian test, the interval [35.5, 39.1]km/h of the impact velocity can be calculated according to steps of the TAA, such interval information will be more useful in accident responsibility identification than a single number. This study will provide a new alternative method for uncertainty analysis in accident reconstruction.

  10. Final report of the accident phenomenology and consequence (APAC) methodology evaluation. Spills Working Group

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brereton, S.; Shinn, J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States); Hesse, D [Battelle Columbus Labs., OH (United States); Kaninich, D. [Westinghouse Savannah River Co., Aiken, SC (United States); Lazaro, M. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States); Mubayi, V. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)

    1997-08-01

    The Spills Working Group was one of six working groups established under the Accident Phenomenology and Consequence (APAC) methodology evaluation program. The objectives of APAC were to assess methodologies available in the accident phenomenology and consequence analysis area and to evaluate their adequacy for use in preparing DOE facility safety basis documentation, such as Basis for Interim Operation (BIO), Justification for Continued Operation (JCO), Hazard Analysis Documents, and Safety Analysis Reports (SARs). Additional objectives of APAC were to identify development needs and to define standard practices to be followed in the analyses supporting facility safety basis documentation. The Spills Working Group focused on methodologies for estimating four types of spill source terms: liquid chemical spills and evaporation, pressurized liquid/gas releases, solid spills and resuspension/sublimation, and resuspension of particulate matter from liquid spills.

  11. Quantitative uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a PWR control rod ejection accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pasichnyk, I.; Perin, Y.; Velkov, K. [Gesellschaft flier Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit - GRS mbH, Boltzmannstasse 14, 85748 Garching bei Muenchen (Germany)

    2013-07-01

    The paper describes the results of the quantitative Uncertainty and Sensitivity (U/S) Analysis of a Rod Ejection Accident (REA) which is simulated by the coupled system code ATHLET-QUABOX/CUBBOX applying the GRS tool for U/S analysis SUSA/XSUSA. For the present study, a UOX/MOX mixed core loading based on a generic PWR is modeled. A control rod ejection is calculated for two reactor states: Hot Zero Power (HZP) and 30% of nominal power. The worst cases for the rod ejection are determined by steady-state neutronic simulations taking into account the maximum reactivity insertion in the system and the power peaking factor. For the U/S analysis 378 uncertain parameters are identified and quantified (thermal-hydraulic initial and boundary conditions, input parameters and variations of the two-group cross sections). Results for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are presented for safety important global and local parameters. (authors)

  12. Radiological consequences of accidents during disposal of spent nuclear fuel in a deep borehole

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grundfelt, Bertil [Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2013-07-15

    In this report, an analysis of the radiological consequences of potential accidents during disposal of spent nuclear fuel in deep boreholes is presented. The results presented should be seen as coarse estimates of possible radiological consequences of a canister being stuck in a borehole during disposal rather than being the results of a full safety analysis. In the concept for deep borehole disposal of spent nuclear fuel developed by Sandia National Laboratories, the fuel is assumed to be encapsulated in mild steel canisters and stacked between 3 and 5 km depth in boreholes that are cased with perforated mild steel casing tubes. The canisters are joined together by couplings to form strings of 40 canisters and lowered into the borehole. When a canister string has been emplaced in the borehole, a bridge plug is installed above the string and a 10 metres long concrete plug is cast on top of the bridge plug creating a floor for the disposal of the next sting. In total 10 canister strings, in all 400 canisters, are assumed to be disposed of at between 3 and 5 kilometres depth in one borehole. An analysis of potential accidents during the disposal operations shows that the potentially worst accident would be that a canister string is stuck above the disposal zone of a borehole and cannot be retrieved. In such a case, the borehole may have to be sealed in the best possible way and abandoned. The consequences of this could be that one or more leaking canisters are stuck in a borehole section with mobile groundwater. In the case of a leaking canister being stuck in a borehole section with mobile groundwater, the potential radiological consequences are likely to be dominated by the release of the so-called Instant Release Fraction (IRF) of the radionuclide inventory, i.e. the fraction of the radionuclides that as a consequence of the in-core conditions are present in the annulus between the fuel pellets and the cladding or on the grain boundaries of the UO{sub 2} matrix

  13. Consequences in Norway after a hypothetical accident at Sellafield - Predicted impacts on the environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thoerring, H.; Ytre-Eide, M.A.; Liland, A.

    2010-12-15

    This report describes the possible environmental consequences for Norway due to a hypothetical accident at the Sellafield complex in the UK. The scenario considered involves an explosion and fire at the B215 facility resulting in a 1 % release of the total HAL (Highly Active liquor) inventory of radioactive waste with a subsequent air transport and deposition in Norway. Air transport modelling is based on real meteorological data from October 2008 with wind direction towards Norway and heavy precipitation. This weather is considered to be quite representative as typical seasonal weather. Based on this weather scenario, the estimated fallout in Norway will be approx 17 P Bq of caesium-137 which is 7 times higher than the fallout from the Chernobyl accident. The modelled radioactive contamination is linked with data on transfer to the food chain and statistics on production and hunting to assess the consequences for foodstuffs. The investigation has been limited to the terrestrial environment, focussing on wild berries, fungi, and animals grazing unimproved pastures (i.e. various types of game, reindeer, sheep and goats). The predicted consequences are severe - especially in connection to sheep and goat production. Up to 80 % of the lambs in Norway could be exceeding the food intervention levels for radiocaesium the first years after the fallout, with 30-40 % likely to be above for many years. There will, consequently, be a need for extensive countermeasures in large areas for years or even decades involving several hundred thousand animals each year. Large consequences are also expected for reindeer husbandry - the first year in particular due to the time of fallout which is just prior to winter slaughter. The consequences will be most sever for reindeer herding in middle and southern parts of Norway, but problems may reach as far north as Finnmark where we find the majority of Norwegian reindeer production. The consequences for game will mostly depend on the

  14. Health effects model for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis. Part I. Introduction, integration, and summary. Part II. Scientific basis for health effects models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evans, J.S.; Moeller, D.W.; Cooper, D.W.

    1985-07-01

    Analysis of the radiological health effects of nuclear power plant accidents requires models for predicting early health effects, cancers and benign thyroid nodules, and genetic effects. Since the publication of the Reactor Safety Study, additional information on radiological health effects has become available. This report summarizes the efforts of a program designed to provide revised health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence modeling. The new models for early effects address four causes of mortality and nine categories of morbidity. The models for early effects are based upon two parameter Weibull functions. They permit evaluation of the influence of dose protraction and address the issue of variation in radiosensitivity among the population. The piecewise-linear dose-response models used in the Reactor Safety Study to predict cancers and thyroid nodules have been replaced by linear and linear-quadratic models. The new models reflect the most recently reported results of the follow-up of the survivors of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and permit analysis of both morbidity and mortality. The new models for genetic effects allow prediction of genetic risks in each of the first five generations after an accident and include information on the relative severity of various classes of genetic effects. The uncertainty in modeloling radiological health risks is addressed by providing central, upper, and lower estimates of risks. An approach is outlined for summarizing the health consequences of nuclear power plant accidents. 298 refs., 9 figs., 49 tabs.

  15. Helium Burning Reaction Rate Uncertainties and Consequences for Supernovae

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tur, C.; Heger, A.; Austin, S. M.

    2007-10-01

    The triple alpha and ^12C(,)^16O reaction rates determine the carbon to oxygen ratio at the completion of core helium burning in stars, which, in turn, influences the later stellar burning stages. We explored the dependence of massive star evolution and nucleosynthesis yields on the experimental uncertainties in the triple alpha rate (10 to 12%) and the ^12C(,)^16O rate (25 to 35%) using full stellar models followed to core collapse and including supernova explosion. The production factors of medium-weight elements obtained by using the Lodders (2003) solar abundances for the initial star composition, rather than the abundances of Anders & Grevesse (1989), provide a less stringent constraint on the ^12C(,)^16O rate. Variations within the current uncertainties in both reaction rates, however, induce significant changes in the central carbon abundance at core carbon ignition and in the mass of the supernova remnant. An experiment is being carried out by an NSCL/WMU collaboration to improve the accuracy of the triple alpha reaction rate.

  16. Reactor safety study. An assessment of accident risks in U. S. commercial nuclear power plants. Appendix VI. Calculation of reactor accident consequences. [PWR and BWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1975-10-01

    Information is presented concerning the radioactive releases from the containment following accidents; radioactive inventory of the reactor core; atmospheric dispersion; reactor sites and meteorological data; radioactive decay and deposition from plumes; finite distance of plume travel; dosimetric models; health effects; demographic data; mitigation of radiation exposure; economic model; and calculated results with consequence model.

  17. The radiological consequences of degraded core accidents for the Sizewell PWR The impact of adopting revised frequencies of occurrence

    CERN Document Server

    Kelly, G N

    1983-01-01

    The radiological consequences of degraded core accidents postulated for the Sizewell PWR were assessed in an earlier study and the results published in NRPB-R137. Further analyses have since been made by the Central Electricity Generating Board (CEGB) of degraded core accidents which have led to a revision of their predicted frequencies of occurrence. The implications of these revised frequencies, in terms of the risk to the public from degraded core accidents, are evaluated in this report. Increases, by factors typically within the range of about 1.5 to 7, are predicted in the consequences, compared with those estimated in the earlier study. However, the predicted risk from degraded core accidents, despite these increases, remains exceedingly small.

  18. Health effects models for off-site radiological consequence analysis on nuclear reactor accidents (II)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Homma, Toshimitsu [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment; Takahashi, Tomoyuki [Kyoto Univ., Kumatori, Osaka (Japan). Research Reactor Inst; Yonehara, Hidenori [National Inst. of Radiological Sciences, Chiba (Japan)] [eds.

    2000-12-01

    This report is a revision of JAERI-M 91-005, 'Health Effects Models for Off-Site Radiological Consequence Analysis of Nuclear Reactor Accidents'. This revision provides a review of two revisions of NUREG/CR-4214 reports by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission which is the basis of the JAERI health effects models and other several recent reports that may impact the health effects models by international organizations. The major changes to the first version of the JAERI health effects models and the recommended parameters in this report are for late somatic effects. These changes reflect recent changes in cancer risk factors that have come from longer followup and revised dosimetry in major studies on the Japanese A-bomb survivors. This report also provides suggestions about future revisions of computational aspects on health effects models. (author)

  19. Evaluation of the Consequences of a Cistern Truck Accident While Transporting Dangerous Substances through a Tunnel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malecha, Ziemowit M; Poliski, Jarosaw; Chorowski, Maciej

    2017-03-23

    The transportation of dangerous substances by truck carriers harbors important safety issues in both road and mine tunnels. Even though traffic conditions in road and mine tunnels are different, the potential geometric and hydrodynamic similarities can lead to similar effects from the uncontrolled leakage of the dangerous material. This work was motivated by the design study of the LAGUNA-LBNO (Large Apparatus studying Grand Unification and Neutrino Astrophysics and Long Baseline Neutrino Oscillations) project. The considered neutrino detector requires a huge amount of liquid argon, which must be transported down the tunnel. The present work focuses on the estimation of the most credible incident and the resulting consequences in the case of a truck accident in the tunnel. The approach and tools used in the present work are generic and can be adapted to other similar situations. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  20. A 25 year retrospective review of the psychological consequences of the Chernobyl accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromet, E J; Havenaar, J M; Guey, L T

    2011-05-01

    The Chernobyl Forum Report from the 20th anniversary of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant disaster concluded that mental health effects were the most significant public health consequence of the accident. This paper provides an updated review of research on the psychological impact of the accident during the 25 year period since the catastrophe began. First responders and clean-up workers had the greatest exposure to radiation. Recent studies show that their rates of depression and post-traumatic stress disorder remain elevated two decades later. Very young children and those in utero who lived near the plant when it exploded or in severely contaminated areas have been the subject of considerable research, but the findings are inconsistent. Recent studies of prenatally exposed children conducted in Kiev, Norway and Finland point to specific neuropsychological and psychological impairments associated with radiation exposure, whereas other studies found no significant cognitive or mental health effects in exposed children grown up. General population studies report increased rates of poor self-rated health as well as clinical and subclinical depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress disorder. Mothers of young children exposed to the disaster remain a high-risk group for these conditions, primarily due to lingering worries about the adverse health effects on their families. Thus, long-term mental health consequences continue to be a concern. The unmet need for mental health care in affected regions remains an important public health challenge 25 years later. Future research is needed that combines physical and mental health outcome measures to complete the clinical picture. Copyright © 2011 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Radiological consequence assessments of degraded core accident scenarios derived from a generic Level 2 PSA of a BWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Homma, Toshimitsu; Ishikawa, Jun; Tomita, Kenichi; Muramatsu, Ken [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment

    2000-12-01

    The radiological consequence assessments have been made of postulated core damage accidents with source terms derived from a generic Level 2 PSA of a BWR carried out by the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI). The source terms used were for the five core damage accident sequences with the drywell and wetwell failure cases, the release control case by venting of the containment and the accident termination case by the containment spray. The radiological consequences have been assessed for individual dose, collective dose, individual risk of early health effects and individual risk of late health effects by a probabilistic accident consequence assessment code, OSCAAR developed in JAERI. Following conclusions were obtained for the assumed source terms. In case of the over pressure failures of the primary containment vessel, the early fatalities can be mitigated through the implementation of early countermeasures, and the late cancer fatalities remains small. For the release control and accident termination cases, the individual and collective doses to the public can be reduced without any countermeasures due to the release reduction of the volatile radionuclides such as iodine and cesium. (author)

  2. Have the consequences of reactor accidents for the population been well assessed? Six questions to the experts in the field

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pohl, Peter

    2016-07-15

    Six questions to the experts in the field are posed: (1) Why is the assessment of accident consequences not separated in long-term and peak exposure? (2) Why is the exposure due to I-131 seen critical mainly in regard to the thyroid? (3) Do you have any reliable relations of health risk versus peak exposure? (4) Why do you not abolish the LNT assumption and replace it with a threshold model? (5) Why do you include indirect, psycho-somatic effects in assessing the consequences of reactor accidents when this is not customary with accidents with often more casualties? (6) How can the number of Chernobyl-assigned thyroid cancers have risen from some 600 about to some 4,000 today, when the latency period is in the range of 4 to 5 years?.

  3. Chernobyl Nuclear Reactor accident fallout: Measurement and consequences. (Latest citations from the NTIS bibliographic database). Published Search

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-11-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning the consequences of radioactive fallout from the Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident. Citations discuss radioactive monitoring, health hazards, and radiation dosimetry. Radiation contamination in the air, soil, vegetation, and food is examined. (Contains 50-250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.) (Copyright NERAC, Inc. 1995)

  4. Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 Accident Progression Uncertainty Analysis and Implications for Decommissioning of Fukushima Reactors - Volume I.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gauntt, Randall O. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mattie, Patrick D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has conducted an uncertainty analysis (UA) on the Fukushima Daiichi unit (1F1) accident progression with the MELCOR code. The model used was developed for a previous accident reconstruction investigation jointly sponsored by the US Department of Energy (DOE) and Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). That study focused on reconstructing the accident progressions, as postulated by the limited plant data. This work was focused evaluation of uncertainty in core damage progression behavior and its effect on key figures-of-merit (e.g., hydrogen production, reactor damage state, fraction of intact fuel, vessel lower head failure). The primary intent of this study was to characterize the range of predicted damage states in the 1F1 reactor considering state of knowledge uncertainties associated with MELCOR modeling of core damage progression and to generate information that may be useful in informing the decommissioning activities that will be employed to defuel the damaged reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. Additionally, core damage progression variability inherent in MELCOR modeling numerics is investigated.

  5. Fukushima accident: the consequences in Japan, France and in Japan; Accident de Fukushima: les repercusions au Japon, en France et dans le Japon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foucher, N.; Sorin, F.

    2011-03-15

    This document begins with a description of the Fukushima accident, the second article reviews the main consequences in Japan of the accident: setting of a forbidden zone around the plant, restriction of the exports of food products, or the shutdown of the Hamaoka plant. The third article is the reporting of an interview of L. Oursel, deputy general director of the Areva group, this interview deals mainly with the safety standard of the EPR and with the issue of passive safety systems. The last part of the document is dedicated to the consequences in France (null sanitary impact, cooperation between Areva, EdF, CEA and the Japanese plant operator Tepco...) and in the rest of the world: the organization of resistance tests in the nuclear power plants operating in the European Union, the decision about the agreement of EPR and AP1000 reactor has been delayed in United-Kingdom, acceleration of the German program for abandoning nuclear energy, Italy suspends its nuclear program, China orders a general overhaul of the safety standard of its nuclear power plants, Poland and Romania reaffirm their trust in nuclear energy, France wishes a 'mechanism' allowing a quick international intervention in case of major nuclear accident, Russia proposes measures to improve nuclear safety. (A.C.)

  6. Consequences of the Chernobyl accident for the natural and human environments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dreicer, M. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States); Aarkog, A. [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark); Alexakhin, R. [Russian Inst. of Agricultural Radiology and Agroecology (Russian Federation); Anspaugh, L. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States); Arkhipov, N.P. [Scientific and Technical Centre of the RIA `Pripyat` (Ukraine); Johansson, K.-J. [Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala (Sweden)

    1996-07-01

    In the ten years since the Chernobyl accident, an enormous amount of work has been done to assess the consequences to the natural and human environment. Although it is difficult to summarize such a large and varied field, some general conclusions can be drawn. This background paper includes the main findings concerning the direct impacts of radiation on the flora and fauna; the general advances of knowledge in the cycling of radionuclides in natural, seminatural and agricultural environments; some evaluation of countermeasures that were used; and a summary of the human radiation doses resulting from the environmental contamination. although open questions still remain, it can be concluded that: (1) at high radiation levels, the natural environment has shown short term impacts but any significant long term impacts remain to be seen; (2) effective countermeasures can be taken to reduce the transfer of contamination from the environment to humans but these are highly site specific and must be evaluated in terms of practicality as well as population does reduction; (3) the majority of the doses have already been received by the human population. If agricultural countermeasures are appropriately taken, the main source of future doses will be the gathering of food and recreational activities in natural and seminatural ecosystems.

  7. A dynamic food-chain model and program for predicting the consequences of nuclear accident

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    1998-01-01

    A dynamic food-chain model and program, DYFOM-95, forpredicting the radiological consequences of nuclear accident hasbeen developed, which is not only suitable to the West food-chainbut also to Chinese food chain. The following processes, caused byaccident release which will make an impact on radionuclideconcentration in the edible parts of vegetable are considered: dryand wet deposition interception and initial retention,translocation, percolation, root uptake and tillage. Activityintake rate of animals, effects of processing and activity intakeof human through ingestion pathway are also considered incalculations. The effects of leaf area index LAI of vegetable areconsidered in dry deposition model. A method for calculating thecontribution of rain with different period and different intensityto total wet deposition is established. The program contains 1 maincode and 5 sub-codes to calculate dry and wet deposition on surfaceof vegetable and soil, translocation of nuclides in vegetable,nuclide concentration in the edible parts of vegetable and inanimal products and activity intake of human and so on.

  8. Accidents - Chernobyl accident; Accidents - accident de Tchernobyl

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-07-01

    This file is devoted to the Chernobyl accident. It is divided in four parts. The first part concerns the accident itself and its technical management. The second part is relative to the radiation doses and the different contaminations. The third part reports the sanitary effects, the determinists ones and the stochastic ones. The fourth and last part relates the consequences for the other European countries with the case of France. Through the different parts a point is tackled with the measures taken after the accident by the other countries to manage an accident, the cooperation between the different countries and the groups of research and studies about the reactors safety, and also with the international medical cooperation, specially for the children, everything in relation with the Chernobyl accident. (N.C.)

  9. Effect of the Duration Time of a Nuclear Accident on Radiological Health Consequences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyojoon Jeong

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to quantify the effect of duration time of a nuclear accident on the radiation dose of a densely populated area and the resulting acute health effects. In the case of nuclear accidents, the total emissions of radioactive materials can be classified into several categories. Therefore, the release information is very important for the assessment of risk to the public. We confirmed that when the duration time of the emissions are prolonged to 7 hours, the concentrations of radioactive substances in the ambient air are reduced by 50% compared to that when the duration time of emission is one hour. This means that the risk evaluation using only the first wind direction of an accident is very conservative, so it has to be used as a screening level for the risk assessment. Furthermore, it is judged that the proper control of the emission time of a nuclear accident can minimize the health effects on residents.

  10. RADIATION HYGIENIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE ACCIDENT AT THE CHERNOBYL NPP AND THE TASKS OF THEIR MINIMIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. G. Onischenko

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents data on the role and results of activities of Rospotrebnadzor bodies and institutions in the field of ensuring population radiation protection during various periods since accident at the Chernobyl NPP. Radiation hygienic characterization of territories affected by radioactive contamination from the accident, population exposure dose range, issues of ensuring radiological well-being of population and ways of their solution are being presented in the paper.

  11. INFLUENCE OF ANTIHYPERTENSIVE THERAPY ON PSYCHOLOGICAL STATUS OF CHERNOBYL NUCLEAR POWER PLANT ACCIDENT CONSEQUENCES LIQUIDATORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. M. Manoshkina

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim. To study psychological status and influence of antihypertensive therapy (AHT on it in Chernobyl nuclear power plant (NPP accident consequences liquidators, who suffer arterial hyper-tension (AH, with controlled treatment compared to the standard treatment in out-patient clinic. Material and methods. 81 liquidators with AH (all men were included into open compara-tive randomized study. Study duration was 12 months. Patients were randomized into main group (MG and control group (CG. Patients of MG received strictly regulated stepped AHT based on ACE inhibitor spirapril 6 mg daily (Quadropril®, Pliva-AVD, hypothiazide was added if necessary (12.5-25 mg daily and afterwards – atenolol (12.5-100 mg daily. In CG AHT and its correction was set by physician in polyclinic. Brief multifactor questionnaire for personality analysis was used to study psychological status. Results. 57 patients completed the study, 28 in MG and 29 in CG. In MG target blood pres-sure (BP levels were reached in 22 (78.6% patients, in CG – in 11 (38% patients (p<0.01. The main feature of psychological status of liquidators with AH was hypochondriac, depressive and anxious disorders. Controlled AHT made it possible to reach improvement in psychological status, i.e. growth of optimism and activity of patients, more often, than standard treatment in out-patient clinics. Increase in number of patients with pronounced anxious changes was observed in CG. Effi-ciency of AHT in liquidators with AH is connected with severity of depressive disturbances: in subgroups with inefficient treatment patients had the highest level of depression. In liquidators with AH, possessing neurotic disturbances, spirapril was efficient both as monotherapy, and in combina-tion with diuretic hydrochlorothiazide and beta-blocker atenolol. Conclusion. Controlled AHT in liquidators with AH has advantages over standard treatment in out-patient clinic and results in more frequent target BP level

  12. Estimation of the Radiological Consequences of Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident using MACCS2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Sora; Min, Byung-Il; Park, Kihyun; Yang, Byung-Mo; Suh, Kyung-suk [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    Three of them have undergone fuel melting and hydrogen explosions. A significant amount of radioactive material was released into the atmosphere from FDNPP and dispersed all over the world. In this study, we assessed the offsite consequences of Fukushima disaster in the region within a 30-km radius of FDNPP using the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code Systems 2(MACCS2) code, which is the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) code. The reflection of the realistic regional characteristics, such as long-term meteorological data, site- and population-specific data, and radiation safety regulatory, is essential to accurately analyze the off-site consequences. The assessment that reflects regional characteristics would contribute to identify main causes of exposure doses and to find the effective countermeasures for minimizing the accidental off-site consequences.

  13. A two-stage optimization model for emergency material reserve layout planning under uncertainty in response to environmental accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jie; Guo, Liang; Jiang, Jiping; Jiang, Dexun; Liu, Rentao; Wang, Peng

    2016-06-05

    In the emergency management relevant to pollution accidents, efficiency emergency rescues can be deeply influenced by a reasonable assignment of the available emergency materials to the related risk sources. In this study, a two-stage optimization framework is developed for emergency material reserve layout planning under uncertainty to identify material warehouse locations and emergency material reserve schemes in pre-accident phase coping with potential environmental accidents. This framework is based on an integration of Hierarchical clustering analysis - improved center of gravity (HCA-ICG) model and material warehouse location - emergency material allocation (MWL-EMA) model. First, decision alternatives are generated using HCA-ICG to identify newly-built emergency material warehouses for risk sources which cannot be satisfied by existing ones with a time-effective manner. Second, emergency material reserve planning is obtained using MWL-EMA to make emergency materials be prepared in advance with a cost-effective manner. The optimization framework is then applied to emergency management system planning in Jiangsu province, China. The results demonstrate that the developed framework not only could facilitate material warehouse selection but also effectively provide emergency material for emergency operations in a quick response.

  14. Uncertainty and Sensitivity of Neutron Kinetic Parameters in the Dynamic Response of a PWR Rod Ejection Accident Coupled Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Mesado

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In nuclear safety analysis, it is very important to be able to simulate the different transients that can occur in a nuclear power plant with a very high accuracy. Although the best estimate codes can simulate the transients and provide realistic system responses, the use of nonexact models, together with assumptions and estimations, is a source of uncertainties which must be properly evaluated. This paper describes a Rod Ejection Accident (REA simulated using the coupled code RELAP5/PARCSv2.7 with a perturbation on the cross-sectional sets in order to determine the uncertainties in the macroscopic neutronic information. The procedure to perform the uncertainty and sensitivity (U&S analysis is a sampling-based method which is easy to implement and allows different procedures for the sensitivity analyses despite its high computational time. DAKOTA-Jaguar software package is the selected toolkit for the U&S analysis presented in this paper. The size of the sampling is determined by applying the Wilks’ formula for double tolerance limits with a 95% of uncertainty and with 95% of statistical confidence for the output variables. Each sample has a corresponding set of perturbations that will modify the cross-sectional sets used by PARCS. Finally, the intervals of tolerance of the output variables will be obtained by the use of nonparametric statistical methods.

  15. Emergency Responses and Health Consequences after the Fukushima Accident; Evacuation and Relocation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasegawa, A; Ohira, T; Maeda, M; Yasumura, S; Tanigawa, K

    2016-04-01

    The Fukushima accident was a compounding disaster following the strong earthquake and huge tsunami. The direct health effects of radiation were relatively well controlled considering the severity of the accident, not only among emergency workers but also residents. Other serious health issues include deaths during evacuation, collapse of the radiation emergency medical system, increased mortality among displaced elderly people and public healthcare issues in Fukushima residents. The Fukushima mental health and lifestyle survey disclosed that the Fukushima accident caused severe psychological distress in the residents from evacuation zones. In addition to psychiatric and mental health problems, there are lifestyle-related problems such as an increase proportion of those overweight, an increased prevalence of hypertension, diabetes mellitus and dyslipidaemia and changes in health-related behaviours among evacuees; all of which may lead to an increased cardiovascular disease risk in the future. The effects of a major nuclear accident on societies are diverse and enduring. The countermeasures should include disaster management, long-term general public health services, mental and psychological care, behavioural and societal support, in addition to efforts to mitigate the health effects attributable to radiation.

  16. Methods for analyzing the uncertainty of a reconstructed result in a traffic accident with interval and probabilistic traces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Tiefang; Peng, Xulong; Wu, Wenguang; Cai, Ming

    2017-01-01

    In order to make the reconstructed result more reliable, a method named improved probabilistic-interval method was proposed to analyze the uncertainty of a reconstructed result in a traffic accident with probabilistic and interval traces. In the method, probabilistic traces are replaced by probabilistic sub-intervals firstly; secondly, these probabilistic sub-intervals and those interval traces will be combined to form many new uncertainty analysis problems with only interval traces; thirdly, the upper and lower bound of the reconstructed result and their probability were calculated in each new uncertainty analysis problem, and an algorithm was proposed to shorten the time taken for this step; finally, distribution functions of the upper and lower bound of the reconstructed result were obtained by doing statistic analysis. Through 2 numerical cases, results obtained from the proposed method were almost the same as results obtained from the Monte Carlo method, but the time taken for the proposed method was far less than the time taken for the Monte Carlo method and results obtained from the proposed method were more stable. Through applying the proposed method to a true vehicle-pedestrian accident, not only the upper and lower bound of the impact velocity (v) can be obtained; but also the probability that the upper bound and the lower bound of v falls in an arbitrary interval can be obtained; furthermore, the probability that the interval of v is less than an arbitrary interval can be obtained also. It is concluded that the proposed improved probabilistic-interval method is practical. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Bounding Radionuclide Inventory and Accident Consequence Calculation for the 1L Target

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kelsey, Charles T. IV [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2011-01-01

    A bounding radionuclide inventory for the tungsten of the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE) IL Target is calculated. Based on the bounding inventory, the dose resulting from the maximum credible incident (MCI) is calculated for the maximally exposed offsite individual (MEOl). The design basis accident involves tungsten target oxidation following a loss of cooling accident. Also calculated for the bounding radionuclide inventory is the ratio to the LANSCE inventory threshold for purposes of inventory control as described in the target inventory control policy. A bounding radionuclide inventory calculation for the lL Target was completed using the MCNPX and CINDER'90 codes. Continuous beam delivery at 200 {micro}A to 2500 mA{center_dot}h was assumed. The total calculated activity following this irradiation period is 205,000 Ci. The dose to the MEOI from the MCI is 213 mrem for the bounding inventory. The LANSCE inventory control threshold ratio is 132.

  18. Pedal cycling accidents--mechanisms and consequences. A study from northern Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Björnstig, U; Näslund, K

    1984-01-01

    During one year, 447 persons attended the University Hospital of Umeå (Sweden) because of bicycling accidents. The incidence was highest in children, falling with advancing age. The most common accident was falling off a bicycle on an uneven or slippery road. Collisions and objects interfering with the rear or front wheel were also common causes. A high percentage of the injuries involved the head, and one-third of these were major injuries. Almost one-fifth of the injured received in-patient care (average 6 days) and a similar number were paid sickness benefit (average 26.5 days). Costs for treatment and benefit were estimated as approx. 2200 Swedish kronor (SEK) per injured person (1 USD = 4:30 SEK, 1979, and 1984 = 8:20 SEK).

  19. RESPONSIBILITY OF PHYSICAL EDUCATION TEACHER: CONSEQUENCES OF THE LEGAL CLAIMS IN ACCIDENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Silva Piñeiro

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Being physical education an area that collects some case law, and that the professionalization required studies specifically, a review of appeals and complaints concerning accidents in school physical education, including sessions inside and outside. It was studied the sense of judicial and administrative resolutions about school accidents in physical education in Spain between 1988-2012, and its effects on physical education professionals. Most opinions and judgments studied the claims were rejected for various reasons, among them the casuality and risk taking, although there are outstanding judgments, blaming the teacher for not being present in class and for not preventing situations. The administration usually paid, although in some cases the teacher also participates.

  20. Accident consequences analysis of the HYLIFE-II inertial fusion energy power plant design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyes, S.; Latkowski, J. F.; Gomez del Rio, J.; Sanz, J.

    2001-05-01

    Previous studies of the safety and environmental aspects of the HYLIFE-II inertial fusion energy power plant design have used simplistic assumptions in order to estimate radioactivity releases under accident conditions. Conservatisms associated with these traditional analyses can mask the actual behavior of the plant and have revealed the need for more accurate modeling and analysis of accident conditions and radioactivity mobilization mechanisms. In the present work, computer codes traditionally used for magnetic fusion safety analyses (CHEMCON, MELCOR) have been applied for simulating accident conditions in a simple model of the HYLIFE-II IFE design. Here we consider a severe loss of coolant accident (LOCA) in conjunction with simultaneous failures of the beam tubes (providing a pathway for radioactivity release from the vacuum vessel towards the confinement) and of the two barriers surrounding the chamber (inner shielding and confinement building itself). Even though confinement failure would be a very unlikely event it would be needed in order to produce significant off-site doses. CHEMCON code allows calculation of long-term temperature transients in fusion reactor first wall, blanket, and shield structures resulting from decay heating. MELCOR is used to simulate a wide range of physical phenomena including thermal-hydraulics, heat transfer, aerosol physics and fusion product transport and release. The results of these calculations show that the estimated off-site dose is less than 5 mSv (0.5 rem), which is well below the value of 10 mSv (1 rem) given by the DOE Fusion Safety Standards for protection of the public from exposure to radiation during off-normal conditions.

  1. Accident consequences analysis of the HYLIFE-II inertial fusion energy power plant design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reyes, S; Gomez del Rio, J; Sanz, J

    2000-02-23

    Previous studies of the safety and environmental (S and E) aspects of the HYLIFE-II inertial fusion energy (IFE) power plant design have used simplistic assumptions in order to estimate radioactivity releases under accident conditions. Conservatisms associated with these traditional analyses can mask the actual behavior of the plant and have revealed the need for more accurate modeling and analysis of accident conditions and radioactivity mobilization mechanisms. In the present work a set of computer codes traditionally used for magnetic fusion safety analyses (CHEMCON, MELCOR) has been applied for simulating accident conditions in a simple model of the HYLIFE-II IFE design. Here the authors consider a severe lost of coolant accident (LOCA) producing simultaneous failures of the beam tubes (providing a pathway for radioactivity release from the vacuum vessel towards the containment) and of the two barriers surrounding the chamber (inner shielding and containment building it self). Even though containment failure would be a very unlikely event it would be needed in order to produce significant off-site doses. CHEMCON code allows calculation of long-term temperature transients in fusion reactor first wall, blanket, and shield structures resulting from decay heating. MELCOR is used to simulate a wide range of physical phenomena including thermal-hydraulics, heat transfer, aerosol physics and fusion product release and transport. The results of these calculations show that the estimated off-site dose is less than 6 mSv (0.6 rem), which is well below the value of 10 mSv (1 rem) given by the DOE Fusion Safety Standards for protection of the public from exposure to radiation during off-normal conditions.

  2. Calculations of reactor-accident consequences, Version 2. CRAC2: computer code user's guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ritchie, L.T.; Johnson, J.D.; Blond, R.M.

    1983-02-01

    The CRAC2 computer code is a revision of the Calculation of Reactor Accident Consequences computer code, CRAC, developed for the Reactor Safety Study. The CRAC2 computer code incorporates significant modeling improvements in the areas of weather sequence sampling and emergency response, and refinements to the plume rise, atmospheric dispersion, and wet deposition models. New output capabilities have also been added. This guide is to facilitate the informed and intelligent use of CRAC2. It includes descriptions of the input data, the output results, the file structures, control information, and five sample problems.

  3. Impact of Uncertainty in SWAT Model Simulations on Consequent Decisions on Optimal Crop Management Practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnan, N.; Sudheer, K. P.; Raj, C.; Chaubey, I.

    2015-12-01

    The diminishing quantities of non-renewable forms of energy have caused an increasing interest in the renewable sources of energy, such as biofuel, in the recent years. However, the demand for biofuel has created a concern for allocating grain between the fuel and food industry. Consequently, appropriate regulations that limit grain based ethanol production have been developed and are put to practice, which resulted in cultivating perennial grasses like Switch grass and Miscanthus to meet the additional cellulose demand. A change in cropping and management practice, therefore, is essential to cater the conflicting requirement for food and biofuel, which has a long-term impact on the downstream water quality. Therefore it is essential to implement optimal cropping practices to reduce the pollutant loadings. Simulation models in conjunction with optimization procedures are useful in developing efficient cropping practices in such situations. One such model is the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), which can simulate both the water and the nutrient cycle, as well as quantify long-term impacts of changes in management practice in the watershed. It is envisaged that the SWAT model, along with an optimization algorithm, can be used to identify the optimal cropping pattern that achieves the minimum guaranteed grain production with less downstream pollution, while maximizing the biomass production for biofuel generation. However, the SWAT simulations do have a certain level of uncertainty that needs to be accounted for before making decisions. Therefore, the objectives of this study are twofold: (i) to understand how model uncertainties influence decision-making, and (ii) to develop appropriate management scenarios that account the uncertainty. The simulation uncertainty of the SWAT model is assessed using Shuffled Complex Evolutionary Metropolis Algorithm (SCEM). With the data collected from St. Joseph basin, IN, USA, the preliminary results indicate that model

  4. Managing Errors to Reduce Accidents in High Consequence Networked Information Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ganter, J.H.

    1999-02-01

    Computers have always helped to amplify and propagate errors made by people. The emergence of Networked Information Systems (NISs), which allow people and systems to quickly interact worldwide, has made understanding and minimizing human error more critical. This paper applies concepts from system safety to analyze how hazards (from hackers to power disruptions) penetrate NIS defenses (e.g., firewalls and operating systems) to cause accidents. Such events usually result from both active, easily identified failures and more subtle latent conditions that have resided in the system for long periods. Both active failures and latent conditions result from human errors. We classify these into several types (slips, lapses, mistakes, etc.) and provide NIS examples of how they occur. Next we examine error minimization throughout the NIS lifecycle, from design through operation to reengineering. At each stage, steps can be taken to minimize the occurrence and effects of human errors. These include defensive design philosophies, architectural patterns to guide developers, and collaborative design that incorporates operational experiences and surprises into design efforts. We conclude by looking at three aspects of NISs that will cause continuing challenges in error and accident management: immaturity of the industry, limited risk perception, and resource tradeoffs.

  5. Evaluating the consequences of loss of flow accident for a typical VVER-1000 nuclear reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mirvakili, S.M.; Safaei, S. [Shiraz Univ., Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of). Dept. of Nuclear Engineering, School of Mechanical Engineering; Faghihi, F. [Shiraz Univ., Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of). Safety Research Center

    2010-07-01

    The loss of coolant flow in a nuclear reactor can result from a mechanical or electrical failure of the coolant pump. If the reactor is not tripped promptly, the immediate effect is a rapid increase in coolant temperature, decrease in minimum departure from nucleate boiling ratio (DNBR) and fuel damage. This study evaluated the shaft seizure of a reactor coolant pump in a VVER-1000 nuclear reactor. The locked rotor results in rapid reduction of flow through the affected reactor coolant loop and in turn leads to an increase in the primary coolant temperature and pressure. The analysis was conducted with regard for superimposing loss of power to the power plant at the initial accident moment. The required transient functions of flow, pressure and power were obtained using system transient calculations applied in COBRA-EN computer code in order to calculate the overall core thermal-hydraulic parameters such as temperature, critical heat flux and DNBR. The study showed that the critical period for the locked rotor accident is the first few seconds during which the maximum values of pressure and temperature are reached. 10 refs., 1 tab., 3 figs.

  6. Uncertainties in individual doses in a case-control study of thyroid cancer after the Chernobyl accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drozdovitch, V. [International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 cours Albert-Thomas, 69372 Lyon Cedex 08 (France); DHHS, NIH, National Cancer Institute, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, EPS 7100, Bethesda, MD 20892 (United States); Maceika, E. [Institute of Physics, Vilnius (Lithuania); Khrouch, V. [State Research Centre - Institute of Biophysics, Moscow (Russian Federation); Zvonova, I. [Institute of Radiation Hygiene, St Petersburg (Russian Federation); Vlasov, O. [Medical Radiological Research Center, Obninsk (Russian Federation); Bouville, A. [DHHS, NIH, National Cancer Institute, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, EPS 7094, Bethesda, MD 20892 (United States); Cardis, E. [International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 cours Albert-Thomas, 69372 Lyon Cedex 08 (France)

    2007-07-01

    Individual radiation doses to the thyroid were reconstructed for 2239 subjects of a case-control study of thyroid cancer among young people that was carried out in regions of Belarus and Russia contaminated by radioactive fallout from the Chernobyl accident. Although the process of dose reconstruction provides a point estimate of each subject's dose, it is obvious that there is uncertainty associated with these dose calculations. The following main sources of uncertainty in the estimated individual doses were identified: (1) shared and un-shared errors associated with parameters of the dosimetry model; and (2) un-shared errors that are associated with the variability, reliability and ability of information from the personal interviews. Besides setting up proper distributions for the parameters of the dosimetry model, inter-individual correlations were also defined to take into account shared errors. By the application of Monte Carlo simulations, a set of approximately log-normally distributed thyroid doses was obtained for each subject; the geometric standard deviations of the distributions are found to vary among individuals from 1.7 to 3.7. (authors)

  7. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence of the evaporator dump

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crowe, R.D., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-09-09

    The purpose of this calculation note is to provide the basis for evaporator dump consequence for the Tank Farm Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). Evaporator Dump scenario is developed and details and description of the analysis methods are provided.

  8. The French-German initiative for Chernobyl: programme 3: Health consequences of the Chernobyl accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tirmarche, M. [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (IRSN), Radiological Protection and Human Health Div. (DRPH), Radiobiology and Epidemiology Dept., 92 - Fontenay-aux-Roses (France); Kellerer, A.M. [Munchen Univ., Strahlenbiologisches Institut (Germany); Bazyka, D. [Chornobyl Center (CC), Kiev regoin (Ukraine)

    2006-07-01

    - Goals: The main objectives of the health programme are collection and validation of existing data on cancer and non cancer diseases in the most highly contaminated regions of Ukraine, Russia and Belarus, common scientific expertise on main health indicators and reliable dosimetry, and finally communication of the results to the scientific community and to the public. - General Tasks: 1- Comparison between high and low exposed regions, 2- Description of trends over time, 3- Consideration of specific age groups. This methodological approach is applied on Solid cancer incidence and leukaemia incidence in different regions in Ukraine, Belarus and Russia, With a special focus on thyroid cancer in young exposed ages. - Thyroid cancer: Those exposed in very young ages continue to express a relatively high excess of thyroid cancer even though they have now reached the age group 15-29. Those exposed as young adults show a small increase, at least partly due to better screening conditions - Leukemia: Description of leukemia trends for various age groups show no clear difference between exposed and unexposed regions when focusing on those exposed at very young ages. The rates of childhood leukemia before and after the accident show no evidence of any increase (oblasts in Belarus over 1982-1998). - Specific studies: Incidence of congenital malformations in Belarus; Infant mortality and morbidity in the most highly contaminated regions; Potential effects of prenatal irradiation on the brain as a result of the Chernobyl accident; Nutritional status of population living in regions with different levels of contamination; Dosimetry of Chernobyl clean-up workers; Radiological passports in contaminated settlements. - Congenital malformations: As a national register was existing since the 1980's and gives the possibility to compare trends before and after the accident, results of congenital malformations describe large results collected over Belarus, There is no evidence of a

  9. Probability and consequences of severe reactor accidents. 60th year atw

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rasmussen, Norman Carl [Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States). Dept. of Nuclear Engineering

    2015-06-15

    The study carried out on behalf of former USAEC (United States Atomic Energy Commission) led by Prof. Rasmussen and published in reworked form as WASH 1400 by the USNRC (United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission) in 1975, assessed in 3,300 pages the risks that can be deducted from severe accidents in nuclear power plants. The results, often quoted and criticised, were so far the most conclusive statements to this question. In his lecture at the reactor meeting in 1976, Prof. Rasmussen tried to trace back the conclusion of the results to the question: Is the use of larger nuclear power plants, in accordance to experiences and calculations so far, acceptable? His risk assessment, related to American power plants and cites, on behalf of the BMI is currently evaluated by the IRS together with the LRA on specific occurrences within the Federal Republic of Germany.

  10. Potential consequences in Norway after a hypothetical accident at Leningrad nuclear power plant. Potential release, fallout and predicted impacts on the environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nalbandyan, A.; Ytre-Eide, M.A.; Thoerring, H.; Liland, A.; Bartnicki, J.; Balonov, M.

    2012-06-15

    The report describes different hypothetical accident scenarios at the Leningrad nuclear power plant for both RBMK and VVER-1200 reactors. The estimated release is combined with different meteorological scenarios to predict possible fallout of radioactive substances in Norway. For a hypothetical catastrophic accident at an RBMK reactor combined with a meteorological worst case scenario, the consequences in Norway could be considerable. Foodstuffs in many regions would be contaminated above the food intervention levels for radioactive cesium in Norway. (Author)

  11. An overview of current knowledge concerning the health and environmental consequences of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aliyu, Abubakar Sadiq; Evangeliou, Nikolaos; Mousseau, Timothy Alexander; Wu, Junwen; Ramli, Ahmad Termizi

    2015-12-01

    Since 2011, the scientific community has worked to identify the exact transport and deposition patterns of radionuclides released from the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) in Japan. Nevertheless, there still remain many unknowns concerning the health and environmental impacts of these radionuclides. The present paper reviews the current understanding of the FDNPP accident with respect to interactions of the released radionuclides with the environment and impacts on human and non-human biota. Here, we scrutinize existing literature and combine and interpret observations and modeling assessments derived after Fukushima. Finally, we discuss the behavior and applications of radionuclides that might be used as tracers of environmental processes. This review focuses on (137)Cs and (131)I releases derived from Fukushima. Published estimates suggest total release amounts of 12-36.7PBq of (137)Cs and 150-160PBq of (131)I. Maximum estimated human mortality due to the Fukushima nuclear accident is 10,000 (due to all causes) and the maximum estimates for lifetime cancer mortality and morbidity are 1500 and 1800, respectively. Studies of plants and animals in the forests of Fukushima have recorded a range of physiological, developmental, morphological, and behavioral consequences of exposure to radioactivity. Some of the effects observed in the exposed populations include the following: hematological aberrations in Fukushima monkeys; genetic, developmental and morphological aberrations in a butterfly; declines in abundances of birds, butterflies and cicadas; aberrant growth forms in trees; and morphological abnormalities in aphids. These findings are discussed from the perspective of conservation biology.

  12. Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis. Part 1, Introduction, integration, and summary: Revision 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evans, J.S. [Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA (United States); Abrahmson, S. [Wisconsin Univ., Madison, WI (United States); Bender, M.A. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States); Boecker, B.B.; Scott, B.R. [Inhalation Toxicology Research Inst., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Gilbert, E.S. [Battelle Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1993-10-01

    This report is a revision of NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 1 (1990), Health Effects Models for Nuclear Power Plant Accident Consequence Analysis. This revision has been made to incorporate changes to the Health Effects Models recommended in two addenda to the NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 11, 1989 report. The first of these addenda provided recommended changes to the health effects models for low-LET radiations based on recent reports from UNSCEAR, ICRP and NAS/NRC (BEIR V). The second addendum presented changes needed to incorporate alpha-emitting radionuclides into the accident exposure source term. As in the earlier version of this report, models are provided for early and continuing effects, cancers and thyroid nodules, and genetic effects. Weibull dose-response functions are recommended for evaluating the risks of early and continuing health effects. Three potentially lethal early effects -- the hematopoietic, pulmonary, and gastrointestinal syndromes are considered. Linear and linear-quadratic models are recommended for estimating the risks of seven types of cancer in adults - leukemia, bone, lung, breast, gastrointestinal, thyroid, and ``other``. For most cancers, both incidence and mortality are addressed. Five classes of genetic diseases -- dominant, x-linked, aneuploidy, unbalanced translocations, and multifactorial diseases are also considered. Data are provided that should enable analysts to consider the timing and severity of each type of health risk.

  13. Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis: Low LET radiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Evans, J.S. (Harvard Univ., Boston, MA (USA). School of Public Health)

    1990-01-01

    This report describes dose-response models intended to be used in estimating the radiological health effects of nuclear power plant accidents. Models of early and continuing effects, cancers and thyroid nodules, and genetic effects are provided. Weibull dose-response functions are recommended for evaluating the risks of early and continuing health effects. Three potentially lethal early effects -- the hematopoietic, pulmonary, and gastrointestinal syndromes -- are considered. In addition, models are included for assessing the risks of several nonlethal early and continuing effects -- including prodromal vomiting and diarrhea, hypothyroidism and radiation thyroiditis, skin burns, reproductive effects, and pregnancy losses. Linear and linear-quadratic models are recommended for estimating cancer risks. Parameters are given for analyzing the risks of seven types of cancer in adults -- leukemia, bone, lung, breast, gastrointestinal, thyroid, and other.'' The category, other'' cancers, is intended to reflect the combined risks of multiple myeloma, lymphoma, and cancers of the bladder, kidney, brain, ovary, uterus and cervix. Models of childhood cancers due to in utero exposure are also developed. For most cancers, both incidence and mortality are addressed. The models of cancer risk are derived largely from information summarized in BEIR III -- with some adjustment to reflect more recent studies. 64 refs., 18 figs., 46 tabs.

  14. Radiological consequences of the Chernobyl reactor accident; Radiologische Folgen des Tschernobyl-Ungluecks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jacob, P.

    1996-05-01

    Large areas of Belarus, Russia, and the Ukraine have been highly contaminated by the radioactive fallout from the reactor accident at Chernobyl. The most affected areas are around Chernobyl and east of Gomel in Belarus, where part of the radioactive fallout came down with rain. The article maps the radioactive contamination through cesium 137 and iodine 131, and summarizes the immediate action taken at the time, as well as long-term remedial action for decontamination of soils. Data are given on the radiation exposure of the population, in particular doses to the thyroid, and prognoses on the incidence of thyroid cancer. (VHE) [Deutsch] Durch den Reaktorunfall von Tschernobyl wurden groessere Flaechen von Belarus, Russland und der Ukraine stark radioaktiv kontaminiert. Besonders betroffen sind die Umgebung von Tschernobyl sowie die Gegend oestlich von Gomel (Belarus), wo die radioaktive Wolke teilweise ausregnete. Der Artikel beschreibt die Belastung mit Caesium 137 und Iod 131 sowie die ergriffenen Sofortmassnahmen und die langfristigen Massnahmen zur Dekontamination der betroffenen Boeden. Die Strahlenbelastung der Bevoelkerung, v.a. die Schilddruesendosen, werden beschrieben, fuer Schilddruesenkrebs werden Prognosen gegeben. (VHE)

  15. Consequence analysis of core meltdown accidents in liquid metal fast reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suk, S.D.; Hahn, D. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    2001-07-01

    Core disruptive accidents have been investigated at Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute(KAERI) as part of work to demonstrate the inherent and ultimate safety of the conceptual design of the Korea Advanced Liquid Metal Reactor(KALIMER), a 150 Mw pool-type sodium cooled prototype fast reactor that uses U-Pu-Zr metallic fuel. In this study, a simple method was developed using a modified Bethe-Tait method to simulate the kinetics and hydraulic behavior of a homogeneous spherical core over the period of the super-prompt critical power excursion induced by the ramp reactivity insertion. Calculations of energy release during excursions in the sodium-voided core of the KALIMER were subsequently performed using the method for various reactivity insertion rates up to 100 $/s, which has been widely considered to be the upper limit of ramp rates due to fuel compaction. Benchmark calculations were made to compare with the results of more detailed analysis for core meltdown energetics of the oxide fuelled fast reactor. A set of parametric studies was also performed to investigate the sensitivity of the results on the various thermodynamics and reactor parameters. (author)

  16. Current status and epidemiological research needs for achieving a better understanding of the consequences of the Chernobyl accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardis, Elisabeth

    2007-11-01

    Twenty years after the Chernobyl accident, there is no clearly demonstrated increase in the incidence of cancers in the most affected populations that can be attributed to radiation from the accident, except for the dramatic increase in thyroid cancer incidence among those exposed in childhood and adolescence. Increases in the incidence of cancers and other diseases have been reported in Belarus, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine, but much of the increase appears to be due to other factors, including improvements in diagnosis, reporting, and registration. Recent findings indicate a possible doubling of leukemia risk among Chernobyl liquidators and a small increase in the incidence of premenopausal breast cancer in the very most contaminated districts. Increased risks of cardiovascular diseases and cataracts have also been reported. These findings, however, need confirmation in well-designed analytical epidemiological studies with careful individual dose reconstruction. The absence of demonstrated increases in cancer risk--apart from thyroid cancer--is not the proof that no increase has in fact occurred. Based on the experience of atomic bomb survivors, and assuming that there is a linear, no-threshold dose-response relationship between exposure to ionizing radiation and the development of cancer in humans, a small increase in the relative risk of cancer is expected, even at the low to moderate doses received. Given the large number of individuals exposed, the absolute number of cancer cases caused could be substantial, particularly in the future. It is therefore essential to continue to use population registries to monitor trends in disease morbidity and mortality in the most contaminated areas, as well as among liquidators, in order to assess the public health impact of the accident. Studies of selected populations and diseases are also essential in order to study the real effect of the accident and compare it to predictions. Careful studies may in particular

  17. Comparison of MACCS users calculations for the international comparison exercise on probabilistic accident consequence assessment code, October 1989--June 1993

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Neymotin, L. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)

    1994-04-01

    Over the past several years, the OECD/NEA and CEC sponsored an international program intercomparing a group of six probabilistic consequence assessment (PCA) codes designed to simulate health and economic consequences of radioactive releases into atmosphere of radioactive materials following severe accidents at nuclear power plants (NPPs): ARANO (Finland), CONDOR (UK), COSYMA (CEC), LENA (Sweden), MACCS (USA), and OSCAAR (Japan). In parallel with this effort, two separate groups performed similar calculations using the MACCS and COSYMA codes. Results produced in the MACCS Users Group (Greece, Italy, Spain, and USA) calculations and their comparison are contained in the present report. Version 1.5.11.1 of the MACCS code was used for the calculations. Good agreement between the results produced in the four participating calculations has been reached, with the exception of the results related to the ingestion pathway dose predictions. The main reason for the scatter in those particular results is attributed to the lack of a straightforward implementation of the specifications for agricultural production and counter-measures criteria provided for the exercise. A significantly smaller scatter in predictions of other consequences was successfully explained by differences in meteorological files and weather sampling, grids, rain distance intervals, dispersion model options, and population distributions.

  18. Perceptions of technology uncertainty and the consequences for performance in buyer-supplier relationships

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oosterhuis, M.; van der Vaart, T.; Molleman, E.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate how buyers' and suppliers' distinct perceptions of technology uncertainty affect the relationship between communication frequency and supplier performance. Information processing theory suggests that a fit is desirable between perceived environmental uncertainty and the

  19. Total costs of injury from accidents in the home and during education, sports and leisure activities: estimates for Norway with assessment of uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veisten, Knut; Nossum, Ase; Akhtar, Juned

    2009-07-01

    Injury accidents occurring in the home, during educational, sports or leisure activities were estimated from samples of hospital data, combined with fatality data from vital statistics. Uncertainty of estimated figures was assessed in simulation-based analysis. Total economic costs to society from injuries and fatalities due to such accidents were estimated at approximately NOK 150 billion per year. The estimated costs reveal the scale of the public health problem and lead to arguments for the establishment of a proper injury register for the identification of preventive measures to reduce the costs to society.

  20. Uncertainty in age-specific harvest estimates and consequences for white-tailed deer management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collier, B.A.; Krementz, D.G.

    2007-01-01

    Age structure proportions (proportion of harvested individuals within each age class) are commonly used as support for regulatory restrictions and input for deer population models. Such use requires critical evaluation when harvest regulations force hunters to selectively harvest specific age classes, due to impact on the underlying population age structure. We used a stochastic population simulation model to evaluate the impact of using harvest proportions to evaluate changes in population age structure under a selective harvest management program at two scales. Using harvest proportions to parameterize the age-specific harvest segment of the model for the local scale showed that predictions of post-harvest age structure did not vary dependent upon whether selective harvest criteria were in use or not. At the county scale, yearling frequency in the post-harvest population increased, but model predictions indicated that post-harvest population size of 2.5 years old males would decline below levels found before implementation of the antler restriction, reducing the number of individuals recruited into older age classes. Across the range of age-specific harvest rates modeled, our simulation predicted that underestimation of age-specific harvest rates has considerable influence on predictions of post-harvest population age structure. We found that the consequence of uncertainty in harvest rates corresponds to uncertainty in predictions of residual population structure, and this correspondence is proportional to scale. Our simulations also indicate that regardless of use of harvest proportions or harvest rates, at either the local or county scale the modeled SHC had a high probability (>0.60 and >0.75, respectively) of eliminating recruitment into >2.5 years old age classes. Although frequently used to increase population age structure, our modeling indicated that selective harvest criteria can decrease or eliminate the number of white-tailed deer recruited into older

  1. The reactor accident in Fukushima Daiichi. The consequence of design deficiencies and inadequate safety engineering; Der Reaktorunfall in Fukushima Daiichi. Folge fehlerhafter Auslegung und unzureichender Sicherheitstechnik

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2015-03-15

    The reactor accident in Fukushima Daiichi is discussed in the frame of design deficiencies and inadequate safety engineering. The progress of the accident as consequence of the earthquake and the tsunami is described. The radiological situation for the public is supposed to be blow the dose limit of 20 mSv/year. The WHO and UNSCEAR (United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic radiation) did not observe acute radiation injuries. The Japanese authorities have classified the accident to 7 of the INES scale. The German Atomforum e.V. considers the safety engineering of German NPPs to be superior to the Japanese situation due to higher emergency energy supply, extensive measures to reduce the hydrogen accumulation and mitigating measures for the accident management. German NPPS are considered highly robust as the EU stress tests have shown.

  2. Review of psychological consequences of nuclear accidents and empirical study on peoples reactions to radiation protection activities in an imagined situation.; Katsaus ydinonnettomuuksien psykologisiin seurauksiin sekae empiirinen tutkimus saeteilysuojelutoimenpiteiden vaikutuksista kaeyttaeytymiseen kuvitteelisessa tilanteessa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haukkala, A.; Eraenen, L. [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Dept. of Social Psychology

    1994-10-01

    The report consist of two parts: a review of studies on psychological consequences of nuclear and radiation accidents in population and an empirical study of peoples reactions to protection actions in an event of hypothetical accident. Review is based on research results from two nuclear reactor accidents (Three Mile Island 1979, Chernobyl 1986) and a radiation accident in Goiania, Brazil 1987. (53 refs, 2 figs.,7 tabs.).

  3. The Chernobyl accident 20 years on: an assessment of the health consequences and the international response O acidente de Chernobyl 20 anos depois: avaliação das conseqüências e resposta internacional

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keith Baverstock

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Twenty years after the Chernobyl accident the WHO and the International Atomic Energy Authority issued a reassuring statement about the consequences. Our objectives in this study were to evaluate the health impact of the Chernobyl accident, assess the international response to the accident, and consider how to improve responses to future accidents. So far, radiation to the thyroid from radioisotopes of iodine has caused several thousand cases of thyroid cancer but very few deaths; exposed children were most susceptible. The focus on thyroid cancer has diverted attention from possible nonthyroid effects. The international response to the accident was inadequate and uncoordinated, and has been unjustifiably reassuring. Accurate assessment in future health effects is not currently possible in the light of dose uncertainties, current debates over radiation actions, and the lessons from the late consequences of atomic bomb exposure. Because of the uncertainties from and the consequences of the accident, it is essential that investigations of its effects should be broadened and supported for the long term. The United Nations should initiate an independent review of the actions and assignments of the agencies concerned, with recommendations for dealing with future international-scale accidents. These should involve independent scientists and ensure cooperation rather than rivalry.Vinte anos após o acidente de Chernobyl ocorrido em 1986, a OMS e a Autoridade Internacional sobre Energia Atômica lançaram um relatório sobre as conseqüências desse desastre. Nosso objetivo neste estudo é avaliar o impacto de tal acidente sobre a saúde e a reação internacional sobre o ocorrido, além de considerar se é possível melhorar as respostas em futuros desastres. Observamos que a radiação sobre a tireóide, proveniente de radioisótopos de iodo, causou milhares de casos de câncer, mas poucas mortes; as crianças expostas foram as mais suscetíveis. O

  4. An uncertainty analysis of the hydrogen source term for a station blackout accident in Sequoyah using MELCOR 1.8.5

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gauntt, Randall O.; Bixler, Nathan E.; Wagner, Kenneth Charles.

    2014-03-01

    A methodology for using the MELCOR code with the Latin Hypercube Sampling method was developed to estimate uncertainty in various predicted quantities such as hydrogen generation or release of fission products under severe accident conditions. In this case, the emphasis was on estimating the range of hydrogen sources in station blackout conditions in the Sequoyah Ice Condenser plant, taking into account uncertainties in the modeled physics known to affect hydrogen generation. The method uses user-specified likelihood distributions for uncertain model parameters, which may include uncertainties of a stochastic nature, to produce a collection of code calculations, or realizations, characterizing the range of possible outcomes. Forty MELCOR code realizations of Sequoyah were conducted that included 10 uncertain parameters, producing a range of in-vessel hydrogen quantities. The range of total hydrogen produced was approximately 583kg 131kg. Sensitivity analyses revealed expected trends with respected to the parameters of greatest importance, however, considerable scatter in results when plotted against any of the uncertain parameters was observed, with no parameter manifesting dominant effects on hydrogen generation. It is concluded that, with respect to the physics parameters investigated, in order to further reduce predicted hydrogen uncertainty, it would be necessary to reduce all physics parameter uncertainties similarly, bearing in mind that some parameters are inherently uncertain within a range. It is suspected that some residual uncertainty associated with modeling complex, coupled and synergistic phenomena, is an inherent aspect of complex systems and cannot be reduced to point value estimates. The probabilistic analyses such as the one demonstrated in this work are important to properly characterize response of complex systems such as severe accident progression in nuclear power plants.

  5. Uncertainty and the financial process and its consequences for the power of the central bank

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.C.R. DOW

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Most monetary theorists claim that the money supply determines the price level and that the authorities set interest rates to influence investment and consumption. The author asks how central banks, relatively small financial institutions, can affect the real world. In analysis, the article deals with determination of exchange rates, interest rates and the money supply. The author concludes that central banks have influence, within a limited range, only because of uncertainty. Because of uncertainty, the links between financial and real assets are weak in the short- to medium-term allowing some influence to be wielded by a central authority.

  6. Consequences of Uncertainty for Regulation: Law and Economics of the Financial Crisis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.M. Pacces (Alessio)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractAbstract This article analyzes the last financial crisis focussing on the recurrent dynamics of externalities in banking. It shows that two major determinants of the crisis were the uncertainty of a new form of financial intermediation and the failure of regulation to cope with its exter

  7. Consequences of ecological, evolutionary and biogeochemical uncertainty for coral reef responses to climatic stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mumby, Peter J; van Woesik, Robert

    2014-05-19

    Coral reefs are highly sensitive to the stress associated with greenhouse gas emissions, in particular ocean warming and acidification. While experiments show negative responses of most reef organisms to ocean warming, some autotrophs benefit from ocean acidification. Yet, we are uncertain of the response of coral reefs as systems. We begin by reviewing sources of uncertainty and complexity including the translation of physiological effects into demographic processes, indirect ecological interactions among species, the ability of coral reefs to modify their own chemistry, adaptation and trans-generational plasticity. We then incorporate these uncertainties into two simple qualitative models of a coral reef system under climate change. Some sources of uncertainty are far more problematic than others. Climate change is predicted to have an unambiguous negative effect on corals that is robust to several sources of uncertainty but sensitive to the degree of biogeochemical coupling between benthos and seawater. Macroalgal, zoanthid, and herbivorous fish populations are generally predicted to increase, but the ambiguity (confidence) of such predictions are sensitive to the source of uncertainty. For example, reversing the effect of climate-related stress on macroalgae from being positive to negative had no influence on system behaviour. By contrast, the system was highly sensitive to a change in the stress upon herbivorous fishes. Minor changes in competitive interactions had profound impacts on system behaviour, implying that the outcomes of mesocosm studies could be highly sensitive to the choice of taxa. We use our analysis to identify new hypotheses and suggest that the effects of climatic stress on coral reefs provide an exceptional opportunity to test emerging theories of ecological inheritance. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Administrative circular No.14 (Rev. 3) – Protection of members of the personnel against the financial consequences of illness, accident and incapacity for work

    CERN Multimedia

    2013-01-01

    Administrative Circular No. 14 (Rev. 3) entitled “Protection of members the personnel against the financial consequences of illness, accident and incapacity for work”, approved by the Director-General following discussion at the Standing Concertation Committee meeting of 19 April 2012 and entering into force on 1 January 2013, is available on the intranet site of the Human Resources Department.   This circular is applicable to all members of the personnel. It cancels and replaces Administrative Circular No. 14 (Rev. 2) entitled “Protection of members of the personnel against the financial consequences of illness, accident and disability” from July 2006. The circular was revised in order to improve the procedure before the Joint Advisory Rehabilitation and Disability Board (JARDB) and the management of long-term sick leave through a multidisciplinary approach launched upstream. The aim of this approach is to allow staff/fellows c...

  9. Model review and evaluation for application in DOE safety basis documentation of chemical accidents - modeling guidance for atmospheric dispersion and consequence assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lazaro, M. A. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Woodarad, K. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Hanna, S. R. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Hesse, D. J. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Huang, J. -C. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Lewis, J. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Mazzola, C. A. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    1997-09-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), through its Defense Programs (DP), Office of Engineering and Operations Suppon, established the Accident Phenomenology and Consequence (AP AC) Methodology Evaluation Program to identify and evaluate methodologies and computer codes to support accident phenomenological and consequence calculations for both radiological and nonradiological materials at DOE facilities and to identify development needs. The program is also intended to define and recommend "best or good engineering/safety analysis practices" to be followed in preparing ''design or beyond design basis" assessments to be included in DOE nuclear and nonnuclear facility safety documents. The AP AC effort is intended to provide scientifically sound and more consistent analytical approaches, by identifying model selection procedures and application methodologies, in order to enhance safety analysis activities throughout the DOE complex.

  10. Investigation of loss of coolant accidents in pressurized water reactors using the ''Dynamic Best-Estimate Safety Analysis'' (DYBESA) method for considering of uncertainties in TRACE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sporn, Michael; Hurtado, Antonio [Technische Univ. Dresden (Germany)

    2016-02-15

    Loss of coolant accident must take uncertainties with potentially strong effects on the accident sequence prediction into account. For example, uncertainties in computational model input parameters resulting from varying geometry and material data due to manufacturing tolerances or unavailable measurements should be considered. The uncertainties of physical models used by the software program are also significant. In this paper, use of the ''Dynamic Best-Estimate Safety Analysis'' (DYBESA) method to quantify the uncertainties in the TRACE thermal-hydraulic program is demonstrated. For demonstration purposes loss of coolant accidents with breaks of various types and sizes in a DN 700 reactor coolant pipe are used as an example Application.

  11. 福岛核事故后果初步评价与思考%Consequences of the Fukushima Accident: A Preliminary Assessment and Discussion

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张立国; 曹建主; 薛大知; 曲静原; 童节娟

    2012-01-01

    东日本的大地震引发的海啸造成日本福岛第一核电站发生严重核事故,引起了国内外社会广泛关注。对此次核事故放射性源项和事故所致后果进行了大致评价与预测。与后续事故发展情况相比较,本文评价工作从整体上把握了事故规模及其所致后果。%Tsunami due to the earthquake in East Japan Sea eventually leaded to a severe nuclear accident in Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant. This event immediately became the focus of the whole world. The work to roughly evaluate and predict the consequence of this nuclear accident is summarized in this paper and the work actually provides valuable information in predicting the scale and severity of the accident comparing to the published information on the accident thereafter.

  12. IRSN press briefing on the issue 'Fukushima, one year after': Situation of Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear installations; Accident of the Fukushima Dai-ichi: briefing on the situation in February 2012; The Fukushima 1 accident one year after: assessment of environmental consequences in Japan; assessment of consequences of the Fukushima accident on the environment in Japan, one year after; Health consequences of the Fukushima Dai-ichi: situation briefing in February 2012; Point presse de l'IRSN sur le theme 'Fukushima, un an apres': Situation des installations nucleaires de Fukushima Dai-ichi; Accident survenu a la centrale de Fukushima Dai-Ichi Point de la situation en fevrier 2012; L'accident de Fukushima 1 an apres: bilan des consequences environnementales au Japon; bilan des consequences de l'accident de Fukushima sur l'environnement au Japon, un an apres l'accident; Les consequences sanitaires de l'accident de Fukushima Dai-ichi: point de situation en fevrier 2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Charles, T.; Jourdain, Jean-Rene

    2012-02-28

    This document gathers reports and Power Point presentations (with maps, data tables and graphs) dealing with the Fukushima accident, one year after its occurrence. Different issues are addressed: the status of the nuclear installations, the situation of the installations and of the environment, assessments, measurements and investigations on the effects and consequences of the accident (radioactive releases and fallouts) on the ground and marine environment and on public health

  13. Risk management & organizational uncertainty implications for the assessment of high consequence organizations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bennett, C.T.

    1995-02-23

    Post hoc analyses have demonstrated clearly that macro-system, organizational processes have played important roles in such major catastrophes as Three Mile Island, Bhopal, Exxon Valdez, Chernobyl, and Piper Alpha. How can managers of such high-consequence organizations as nuclear power plants and nuclear explosives handling facilities be sure that similar macro-system processes are not operating in their plants? To date, macro-system effects have not been integrated into risk assessments. Part of the reason for not using macro-system analyses to assess risk may be the impression that standard organizational measurement tools do not provide hard data that can be managed effectively. In this paper, I argue that organizational dimensions, like those in ISO 9000, can be quantified and integrated into standard risk assessments.

  14. Long-term therapy for polymorphic mental disorders in liquidators of the consequences of the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. N. Krasnov

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper gives the results of a long-term comparative therapeutic study of a large cohort of more than 500 liquidators of the consequences of the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in 1986. The patients were followed up (and periodically treated at hospital 5 years or more, usually 10—15 years. The study confirmed mainly the cerebrovascular nature of disorders following the pattern seen in moderate psychoorganic syndrome. Therapy with cerebroprotective agents having vascular vegetotropic properties could yield certain therapeutic results and, to some extent, preserve social functioning capacity in these patients.

  15. Updated action plan for the implementation of measures as a consequence of the Fukushima reactor accident; Fortgeschriebener Aktionsplan zur Umsetzung von Massnahmen nach dem Reaktorunfall in Fukushima

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2016-03-15

    The updated German action plan for the implementation of measures as a consequence of the Fukushima reactor accident covers the following issues: decision on the future utilization of nuclear energy in Germany; national frame for security checks, inspections and measures for nuclear power plants; international frame for inspections; action plan and WENRA reference level; action plan for the implementation of measures form robustness enhancement in German nuclear power plants (SNC topics 1-3), action plan for implementation of further measures (CNS topics 4-6).

  16. 液氨储罐泄露后果模拟及应急处置%Consequences Simulation and Emergency Disposal of Liquid Ammonia Tank Leakage Accidents

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孙高穹; 刘剑俊

    2016-01-01

    Taking a liquid ammonia tank of a enterprise cold storage as an example,This paper identified the risk of ammonia storage possible poisoning and explosion accident,used the TNT equivalent method and overpressure criterion to simulate the accident consequences of the steam explosion caused by the leakage of a single tank,predicted the toxic gas leakage diffusion effect based on multi-puff model,Finally put forward prevention and emergency response measures of the liquid ammonia tank leak accident.%文章以某企业冷库配备的液氨储罐为实例,对液氨储存过程可能发生的中毒和爆炸事故进行风险识别,运用TNT当量法和超压准则模拟单个储罐泄露后引发蒸汽云爆炸的事故后果,同时运用多烟团模式预测有毒气体泄露扩散影响范围,最后提出液氨储罐泄露事故防范和应急处置措施。

  17. Consequences of Fukushima 11032011 - Radiological consequences from the nuclear accidents in Fukushima on 11 March 2011; Fukushima Auswirkung 11032011 -- Radiologische Auswirkungen aus den kerntechnischen Unfaellen in Fukushima vom 11.03.2011

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-12-15

    On 11 March 2011 at 14.46 the strongest earthquake ever recorded in Japan struck the Pacific coast in front of Fukushima. The earthquake and the following tsunami damaged the nuclear power plants in Fukushima Dai-ichi to such an extent that the Japanese government declared the state of catastrophic accident with degree 7 according to the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES). At Fukushima Dai-ichi there were 6 boiling water reactors (BWR), a storage pool for spent fuel assemblies and a dry cask storage. 12 km apart at Fukushima Dai-ni there were 4 more BWR. At the moment of the earthquake the reactors 1 to 3 of Fukushima Dai-ichi, as well as the 4 reactors at Fukushima Dai-ni, were at full power, while the reactors 4 to 6 of Fukushima Dai-ichi were shut down for revision. From 12 March 2011 on, fairly large quantities of radioactive materials were released from Fukushima Dai-ichi reactors with meaningful consequences on the population in the near neighbourhood. The irradiation from the radioactivity bearing clouds, the ingestion and inhalation, and the deposit of radioactive materials on the ground threatened the population. The inhabitants of large areas had to be evacuated. Furthermore, radioactive materials contaminated the drinking water, the sea water and finally the plants and animals, i.e. the food chain of the people living there. The Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate (ENSI) continuously proceeded with the evaluation of the situation in Japan and a specialists' team made a detailed analysis of the accident, with emphasis on the human and organisational factors and on the lessons learned from this. The present report describes the present knowledge about the radiological consequences of the accident in Fukushima Dai-ichi on the population in the neighbourhood and on the staff at the power plant, until October 2011. First, the unrolling of the accident and its consequences on the plant site are analysed according to

  18. Qualification and application of nuclear reactor accident analysis code with the capability of internal assessment of uncertainty; Qualificacao e aplicacao de codigo de acidentes de reatores nucleares com capacidade interna de avaliacao de incerteza

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Borges, Ronaldo Celem

    2001-10-15

    This thesis presents an independent qualification of the CIAU code ('Code with the capability of - Internal Assessment of Uncertainty') which is part of the internal uncertainty evaluation process with a thermal hydraulic system code on a realistic basis. This is done by combining the uncertainty methodology UMAE ('Uncertainty Methodology based on Accuracy Extrapolation') with the RELAP5/Mod3.2 code. This allows associating uncertainty band estimates with the results obtained by the realistic calculation of the code, meeting licensing requirements of safety analysis. The independent qualification is supported by simulations with RELAP5/Mod3.2 related to accident condition tests of LOBI experimental facility and to an event which has occurred in Angra 1 nuclear power plant, by comparison with measured results and by establishing uncertainty bands on safety parameter calculated time trends. These bands have indeed enveloped the measured trends. Results from this independent qualification of CIAU have allowed to ascertain the adequate application of a systematic realistic code procedure to analyse accidents with uncertainties incorporated in the results, although there is an evident need of extending the uncertainty data base. It has been verified that use of the code with this internal assessment of uncertainty is feasible in the design and license stages of a NPP. (author)

  19. SOARCA Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Long-Term Station Blackout Uncertainty Analysis: Knowledge Advancement.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gauntt, Randall O.; Mattie, Patrick D.; Bixler, Nathan E.; Ross, Kyle W.; Cardoni, Jeffrey N; Kalinich, Donald A.; Osborn, Douglas.; Sallaberry, Cedric Jean-Marie; Ghosh, S. Tina

    2014-02-01

    This paper describes the knowledge advancements from the uncertainty analysis for the State-of- the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) unmitigated long-term station blackout accident scenario at the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. This work assessed key MELCOR and MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System, Version 2 (MACCS2) modeling uncertainties in an integrated fashion to quantify the relative importance of each uncertain input on potential accident progression, radiological releases, and off-site consequences. This quantitative uncertainty analysis provides measures of the effects on consequences, of each of the selected uncertain parameters both individually and in interaction with other parameters. The results measure the model response (e.g., variance in the output) to uncertainty in the selected input. Investigation into the important uncertain parameters in turn yields insights into important phenomena for accident progression and off-site consequences. This uncertainty analysis confirmed the known importance of some parameters, such as failure rate of the Safety Relief Valve in accident progression modeling and the dry deposition velocity in off-site consequence modeling. The analysis also revealed some new insights, such as dependent effect of cesium chemical form for different accident progressions. (auth)

  20. Evaluation of sanitary consequences of Chernobylsk accident in France. Epidemiological surveillance plan, state of knowledge, risks evaluation and perspectives; Evaluation des consequences sanitaires de l'accident de Tchernobyl en France. Dispositif de surveillance epidemiologique, etat des connaissances, evaluation des risques et perspectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Verger, P.; Cherie-Challine, L

    2000-12-15

    This report jointly written by IPSN and InVS, reviews the sanitary consequences in France of the Chernobyl accident, which occurred in 1986. The first point is dedicated to a short presentation of the knowledge relative to the sanitary consequences of the Chernobyl accident in the high contaminated countries and to the risk factors of the thyroid cancer. Secondly, this report describes the main systems of epidemiological surveillance of health implemented in France in 1986 and in 1999, as well as the data of the incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer observed in France since 1975. In addition, this report presents an analysis of the risk of thyroid cancer related to radioactive contamination in France, for young people of less than 15 years of age who where living in 1986 in the highest contaminated areas of France (Eastern territories). For this purpose, the theoretical number of thyroid cancers in excess is evaluated for this population, on the basis of different available risk model. Finally starting from the results of risk assessment, there is a discussion about the relevance and the feasibility of different epidemiological methods in view of answering the questions related to the sanitary consequences of the Chernobyl accident. In conclusion, this report recommends to reinforce the surveillance of thyroid cancer in France. (author)

  1. A GIS-based prediction and assessment system of off-site accident consequence for Guangdong nuclear power plant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, X Y; Qu, J Y; Shi, Z Q; Ling, Y S

    2003-01-01

    GNARD (Guangdong Nuclear Accident Real-time Decision support system) is a decision support system for off-site emergency management in the event of an accidental release from the nuclear power plants located in Guangdong province, China. The system is capable of calculating wind field, concentrations of radionuclide in environmental media and radiation doses. It can also estimate the size of the area where protective actions should be taken and provide other information about population distribution and emergency facilities available in the area. Furthermore, the system can simulate and evaluate the effectiveness of countermeasures assumed and calculate averted doses by protective actions. All of the results can be shown and analysed on the platform of a geographical information system (GIS).

  2. 大型 LNG 储罐泄漏事故后果分析%Consequence Analysis of Leakage Accident of Large LNG Storage Tank

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    俞志东; 吴建林

    2016-01-01

    Natural gas is a kind of high quality ,high efficiency ,clean energy ,Which is widely used in various industries .In order to use natural gas Conveniently ,some coastal cities in our country have built many large LNG storage tanks .Liquefied natural gas is the flammable and explosive dangerous goods ,so once a tank leaks ,it may cause very serious consequences .The PHAST software ,once being input the real scene at the time of an accident ,can calculate and analyze the diffusion ,the flash fire ,the fire disaster ,or the explosion immediately , quickly determining the leakage ,diffusion ,combustion and explosion hazard area ,and measuring the personnel death radius ,serious injury radius and minor injury radius caused by the fire thermal radiation and explosion pressure .Analysis of the accident can help receiving sta-tions intuitively understand the degree of danger after the accident so as to take corresponding measures .%天然气是一种优质、高效的清洁能源,广泛地应用于各个行业中。我国部分沿海城市已建造了大型 LNG 接收站,运用PHAST 软件,输入发生事故时的真实场景,可对 LNG 储罐泄漏事故后果进行计算和分析,从而确定泄漏、扩散、燃烧和爆炸等危险区域范围。分析结果能帮助接收站直观了解发生事故后的危险程度,进而能够针对性地采取相应的安全措施。

  3. Evaluation of sanitary consequences of Chernobyl accident in France: epidemiological monitoring device, state of knowledge, evaluation of risks and perspectives; Evaluation des consequences sanitaires de l'accident de Tchernobyl en France: dispositif de surveillance epidemiologique, etat des connaissances, evaluation des risques et perspectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Verger, P.; Champion, D.; Gourmelon, P.; Hubert, Ph.; Joly, J.; Renaud, Ph.; Tirmarche, M.; Vidal, M. [CEA/Fontenay-aux-Roses, Inst. de Protection et de Surete Nucleaire, IPSN, 92 (France); Cherie-Challine, L.; Boutou, O.; Isnard, H.; Jouan, M.; Pirard, Ph. [Institut National de Veille Sanitaire, 94 - Saint-Maurice (France)

    2000-12-01

    The objectives of this document are firstly, to present the situation of knowledge both on the sanitary consequences of the Chernobyl accident and on the risk factors of thyroid cancers, these ones constituting one of the most principal consequences observed in Belarus, in Ukraine and Russia; secondly, the give the principal system contributing to the epidemiological surveillance of effects coming from a exposure to ionizing radiations, in France and to give the knowledge on incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer in France; thirdly, to discuss the pertinence and the feasibility of epidemiological approaches that could be considered to answer questions that the public and authorities ask relatively to the sanitary consequences of Chernobyl accident in France; fourthly to male a calculation of thyroid cancer risk in relation with Chernobyl fallout in France from works and studies made from 1986 on the consequences of this disaster in terms of radioecology and dosimetry at the national level. Besides, the improvement of thyroid cancer surveillance is also tackled. (N.C.)

  4. RASCAL 及其在核事故后果评价中的应用%RASCAL and Its Application in Nuclear Accident Consequences Assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王韶伟; 侯杰; 陈海英; 曹亚丽; 乔清党; 李冰

    2014-01-01

    The development history, main function and basic principle used for emergency response of RAS-CAL, which is used for analyzing nuclear and radiate accident by American Nuclear Regulatory Commission, are presented in the study.The main modules/models are analyzed selectively, including source term to dose, field measurement to dose, meteorological data processor, source term calculation, transport, diffusion, and dose calculations.Then, RASCAL is applied to assess the radiological consequence of a nuclear power plant ac-cident emergency exercise.The assessment conclusion is displayed through Google Earth as 3D style.%介绍了美国核管会用于核与辐射事故后果分析的辐射评价系统( RASCAL)的主要功能和特性,重点分析了RASCAL的源项计算剂量模块、场外监测数据计算剂量模块、气象数据处理模块,以及源项计算模式、大气输运扩散模式和剂量计算模式。最后,将RASCAL应用于我国某核电厂事故应急演习中,评价分析事故情景下的放射性影响,并将其结果通过Google Earth进行三维展示。

  5. SCIENTIFIC SUPPORT OF THE MEDICAL SECTION OF THE STATE PROGRAM OF THE BELARUS REPUBLIC FOR THE OVERCOMING OF THE CHERNOBYL ACCIDENT CONSEQUENCES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. V. Rozhko

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A twenty-five year health follow-up of the affected population has shown that a properly structured State strategy on overcoming the consequences of disaster allow to maintain stable levels of morbidity and mortality. An important achievement in the system of medical help to the affected population is the organization of dynamic follow-up, as well as creating State Register of people exposed to radiation as a result of the Chernobyl accident as a tool for solving scientific and practical problems. The results of scientific researches obtained in the SO “The Republican Research Centre for Radiation Medicine and Human Ecology” were the basis for one of the Council of Ministers Decree and two Decrees of the Ministry of Health. Significant changes have been made in the order of assigning the causation connection of disease (disability and the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant and objective criteria for the formation of high radiation risk groups.In a whole, the rate of oncological morbidity in the affected population remains at the average republican level, but for certain categories of the affected population, referred to groups of enhanced radiation risk, there has been detected the presence of excess morbidity of some forms of malignant neoplasms.

  6. Consequences of Windscale accident (October 1957) and study of the validity of the Sutton's mathematical model of atmospheric diffusion (1960); Etude des consequences de l'accident de Windscale (Octobre 1957) et de la validite du modele mathematique de diffusion atmospherique de Sutton (1960)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doury, A. [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique (S.C.R.G.R.) Saclay (France).Centre d' Etudes Nucleaires; Martin, J.J. [Electricite de France (EDF)(S.L.P.R.), 37 - Chinon (France)

    1960-07-01

    The reactor accident that happens at the number 1 pile of Windscale in 1957 was followed by a discharge of radioactive products into the atmosphere from the 1.X.1957 at 4.30 PM to the 12.X.1957 at 3.10 PM. On october the 11{sup th} it was possible to say that there was no more risk either of external irradiation or inhalation. But in adopting a M.A.C. of 0,1 {mu}curie of iodine 131 per litre of milk, the Authority had to control the milk delivery till november 23{sup rd} on a 500 km{sup 2} area. On the other hand, this exceptional accident permit to verify that Sutton's atmospheric diffusion model could give an easy means to foresee, with a sufficient approximation, the consequences of a dispersion of radioactive products into the atmosphere. (author) [French] L'accident survenu a la pile numero 1 de Windscale en 1957 a entraine l'emission de matieres radioactives dans l'atmosphere du 10 octobre a 16h30 au 12 octobre a 15h10. Le 11 octobre, on pouvait dire qu'il n'y avait plus de risque d'irradiation externe ni de danger par inhalation. Mais en adoptant une C.M.A. de 0,1 {mu}curie d'iode 131 par litre de lait, les autorites ont du reglementer la consommation du lait jusqu'au 23 novembre sur une etendue d'environ 500 km{sup 2}. D'autre part, cet accident exceptionnel a permis de verifier que le modele de diffusion atmospherique de Sutton pouvait fournir un moyen commode de prevoir avec une approximation suffisante les consequences d'une dispersion de produits radioactifs dans l'atmosphere. (auteur)

  7. Review of the chronic exposure pathways models in MACCS (MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System) and several other well-known probabilistic risk assessment models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tveten, U. (Institutt for Energiteknikk, Kjeller (Norway))

    1990-06-01

    The purpose of this report is to document the results of the work performed by the author in connection with the following task, performed for US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, (USNRC) Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, Division of Systems Research: MACCS Chronic Exposure Pathway Models: Review the chronic exposure pathway models implemented in the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS) and compare those models to the chronic exposure pathway models implemented in similar codes developed in countries that are members of the OECD. The chronic exposures concerned are via: the terrestrial food pathways, the water pathways, the long-term groundshine pathway, and the inhalation of resuspended radionuclides pathway. The USNRC has indicated during discussions of the task that the major effort should be spent on the terrestrial food pathways. There is one chapter for each of the categories of chronic exposure pathways listed above.

  8. Ethical Issues Related to the Promotion of a "100 mSv Threshold Assumption" in Japan after the Fukushima Nuclear Accident in 2011: Background and Consequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsuda, Toshihide; Lindahl, Lena; Tokinobu, Akiko

    2017-06-01

    This article describes the debates in Japan regarding the 100 mSv threshold assumption and ethical issues related to it, and explores the background to distorted risk information and absence of risk communication in Japan. Then we seek proper risk communication based on scientific evidence. On March 11, 2011 an accident occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant due to the Great East Japan Earthquake. Since then a number of misunderstandings have become common in Japan as a result of public statements by the Japanese and local governments that have no basis in medical science or are contradictory to medical science. Consequently, not only the population of Fukushima Prefecture, but also others, have been subjected to unnecessary exposure to radiation, against the As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) principle. The number of cases of thyroid cancer has increased by one or two orders of magnitude since the accident in Fukushima. However, the population has hardly been given any correct information from the central and local governments, medical societies, and media. The center of this problem is a statement on radiation-induced cancer (including thyroid cancer) made by the Japanese Government and Japanese medical academic societies indicating that "exposure of less than 100 mSv gives rise to no excess risk of cancer, and even if there is some resulting cancer it will be impossible to detect it" (this will be referred to as "the 100 mSv threshold assumption" from now onward). They have been saying this since April 2011 and have made no effort to correct it. Many Japanese began to notice this but correct information on radiation protection has reached only one part of the population. Risk communication should be based on scientific evidence, and providing it as information for the public is a key element. In Japan, governments and academic societies tried to communicate with the public without doing it. Ethical problems after the accident in Fukushima

  9. An Evaluation of the Role that Traffic Culture Plays in Reducing Consequences of Accidents and Promoting Social Security and Order

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nasser Pourmoallem

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available IntroductionAccidents and traffic security have become serious issues in our country, to the extent that most of the people and authorities are severely concerned about them. On the other hand, research shows that human factor has the most important role in the occurrence of accidents. According to the records, only %1 of all accidents in Iran are resulted from "vehicle malfunction" and “immunodeficiency of the roads”; while other events, directly or indirectly, are caused by human wrong operations. Analysis of various factors shows that the human factor is not an element, but is characterized by three axes: (1 drivers and pedestrians, (2 planning and legislation and (3 control factors. In this paper, approaches to develop transportation and traffic security through teaching traffic behaviors to road users are investigated in the framework of three scenarios. Also, the solutions for improving safety, traffic and transportation through culture and education have been investigated. Moreover, the behavior of road users has been studied in the form of these traffic scenarios. Material & MethodsIn scenario No. 1, the importance and the role of traffic culture and behavior in the development of traffic flow is investigated and the process of AHP is used to investigate the decision making processes about the improvement of traffic culture and behavior. In this scenario, the importance of culture together with the role that it plays in improving the safety and facilitative factors of transportation is evaluated. To this end, “improving traffic behavior and culture alongside of the improvement of transport safety and facilitation” is intended to be the assumed target. Therefore, all the factors and parameters effective on the improvement of traffic behavior and culture are the statistical variables in this study:•The training method (culture•The enforcement of traffic laws and regulations variable•The variable of social and psychological

  10. The accident in Fukushima. Preliminary report on the accident progress in the nuclear power plants as a consequence of the earth quake on 11th March 2011; Der Unfall in Fukushima. Zwischenbericht zu den Ablaeufen in den Kernkraftwerken nach dem Erdbeben vom 11. Maerz 2011

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Borghoff, Stefan; Brueck, Benjamin; Kilian-Huelsmeyer, Yvonne; Maqua, Michael; Mildenberger, Oliver; Quester, Claudia; Stahl, Thorsten; Thuma, Gernot; Wetzel, Norbert; Wild, Volker

    2011-08-15

    The preliminary report on the accident progress in the nuclear power plants as a consequence of the earth quake on 11th March 2011 describes the chronologic sequence of the accident in the different units of the power plant. The measures for mitigation of the accident impact at the site of Fukushima Daiichi and Fukushima Daini included the efforts to reach and maintain stable plant conditions. The issue radiological situation includes an estimation of the air-borne radionuclide release, the contamination of the environment and the sea water, measures for protection of the public. The lessons learned following the NISA and IAEA fact finding missions and the open questions are summarized.

  11. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence development for the leak from a railcar/tank trailer at the 204-ar waste unloading facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ryan, G.W., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-09-19

    This document supports the development and presentation of the following accident scenario in the TWRS Final Safety Analysis Report: Leak from Railcar/Tank Trailer. The calculations needed to quantify the risk associated with this accident scenario are included within.

  12. 90Sr and 89Sr in seawater off Japan as a consequence of the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. O. Buesseler

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The impact of the earthquake and tsunami in the east coast of Japan in 11 March 2011 caused a loss of power at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (NPP that resulted in one of the most important releases of artificial radioactivity to the environment. Although several works were devoted to evaluate the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides, the impact of the discharges to the ocean has been less investigated. Here we evaluate the distribution of Fukushima-derived 90Sr and 89Sr throughout waters 30–600 km offshore in June 2011. Concentrations of 90Sr and 89Sr in both surface waters and shallow profiles ranged from 0.8 ± 0.2 to 85 ± 3 Bq m−3 and from 19 ± 6 to 265 ± 74 Bq m−3, respectively. Because of its short half-life, all measured 89Sr was due to the accident, while the 90Sr concentrations can be compared to the background levels in the Pacific Ocean of about 1.2 Bq m−3. Fukushima-derived radiostrontium was mainly detected north of Kuroshio Current, as this was acting as a southern boundary for transport. The highest activities were associated with near-shore eddies, and larger inventories were found in the closest stations to Fukushima NPP. The data evidences a major influence of direct liquid discharges of radiostrontium compared to the atmospheric deposition. Existing 137Cs data reported from the same samples allowed us establishing a 90Sr/137Cs ratio of 0.0256 ± 0.0006 in seawater off Fukushima, being significantly different than that of the global atmospheric fallout (i.e. 0.63 and may be used in future studies to track waters coming from the east coast of Japan. Liquid discharges of 90Sr to the ocean were estimated, resulting in an inventory of 53 ± 1 TBq of 90Sr in the inshore study area in June 2011 and total releases of 90Sr ranging from 90 to 900 TBq, depending upon the reported estimates of 137Cs releases that are considered.

  13. 90Sr and 89Sr in seawater off Japan as a consequence of the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Casacuberta

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The impact of the earthquake and tsunami on the east coast of Japan on 11 March 2011 caused a loss of power at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant (NPP that resulted in one of the most important releases of artificial radioactivity into the environment. Although several works were devoted to evaluating the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides, the impact of the discharges to the ocean has been less investigated. Here we evaluate the distribution of Fukushima-derived 90Sr (n = 57 and 89Sr (n = 19 throughout waters 30–600 km offshore in June 2011. Concentrations of 90Sr and 89Sr in both surface waters and shallow profiles ranged from 0.8 ± 0.2 to 85 ± 3 Bq m−3 and from 19 ± 6 to 265 ± 74 Bq m−3, respectively. Because of its short half-life, all measured 89Sr was due to the accident, while the 90Sr concentrations can be compared to the background levels in the Pacific Ocean of about 1.2 Bq m−3. Fukushima-derived radiostrontium was mainly detected north of Kuroshio Current, as this was acting as a southern boundary for transport. The highest activities were associated with near-shore eddies, and larger inventories were found in the closest stations to Fukushima NPP. The data evidence a major influence of direct liquid discharges of radiostrontium compared to the atmospheric deposition. Existing 137Cs data reported from the same samples allowed us to establish a 90Sr / 137Cs ratio of 0.0256 ± 0.0006 in seawater off Fukushima, being significantly different than that of the global atmospheric fallout (i.e., 0.63 and may be used in future studies to track waters coming from the east coast of Japan. Liquid discharges of 90Sr to the ocean were estimated, resulting in an inventory of 53 ± 1 TBq of 90Sr in the inshore study area in June 2011 and total releases of 90Sr ranging from 90 to 900 TBq, depending upon the reported estimates of 137Cs releases that are considered.

  14. 90Sr and 89Sr in seawater off Japan as a consequence of the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casacuberta, N.; Masqué, P.; Garcia-Orellana, J.; Garcia-Tenorio, R.; Buesseler, K. O.

    2013-06-01

    The impact of the earthquake and tsunami on the east coast of Japan on 11 March 2011 caused a loss of power at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant (NPP) that resulted in one of the most important releases of artificial radioactivity into the environment. Although several works were devoted to evaluating the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides, the impact of the discharges to the ocean has been less investigated. Here we evaluate the distribution of Fukushima-derived 90Sr (n = 57) and 89Sr (n = 19) throughout waters 30-600 km offshore in June 2011. Concentrations of 90Sr and 89Sr in both surface waters and shallow profiles ranged from 0.8 ± 0.2 to 85 ± 3 Bq m-3 and from 19 ± 6 to 265 ± 74 Bq m-3, respectively. Because of its short half-life, all measured 89Sr was due to the accident, while the 90Sr concentrations can be compared to the background levels in the Pacific Ocean of about 1.2 Bq m-3. Fukushima-derived radiostrontium was mainly detected north of Kuroshio Current, as this was acting as a southern boundary for transport. The highest activities were associated with near-shore eddies, and larger inventories were found in the closest stations to Fukushima NPP. The data evidence a major influence of direct liquid discharges of radiostrontium compared to the atmospheric deposition. Existing 137Cs data reported from the same samples allowed us to establish a 90Sr / 137Cs ratio of 0.0256 ± 0.0006 in seawater off Fukushima, being significantly different than that of the global atmospheric fallout (i.e., 0.63) and may be used in future studies to track waters coming from the east coast of Japan. Liquid discharges of 90Sr to the ocean were estimated, resulting in an inventory of 53 ± 1 TBq of 90Sr in the inshore study area in June 2011 and total releases of 90Sr ranging from 90 to 900 TBq, depending upon the reported estimates of 137Cs releases that are considered.

  15. The Quota Simulation Analysis in Accident Consequence of Ethanol Tank Area%乙醇贮罐区事故后果定量模拟分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    苗金明; 刘倩倩; 张宪金

    2012-01-01

    This paper systematically analyzes the major risk of the ethanol tank area, and summarizes the possible consequences of the accident: tank poor fire, vapor cloud explosion (VCE), boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE). Also mathematical models of quan- titative simulation analysis and an applied methodology for simulating the consequences is presen- ted, which is conductive for overall layout of alcohol tank, security design, risk analysis, and accident prevention measures.%通过对乙醇罐区的危险特性进行分析,指出乙醇的事故后果主要为池火灾、蒸气云爆炸、沸腾液体扩展为蒸气爆炸;给出了乙醇事故后果的定量模拟分析的数学模型,同时进行了实例模拟,对指导乙醇贮罐区的总体布局、贮罐区安全设计、贮罐区危险性分析及事故预防措施均有一定参考价值。

  16. Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis: Low LET radiation: Part 2, Scientific bases for health effects models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abrahamson, S.; Bender, M.; Book, S.; Buncher, C.; Denniston, C.; Gilbert, E.; Hahn, F.; Hertzberg, V.; Maxon, H.; Scott, B.

    1989-05-01

    This report provides dose-response models intended to be used in estimating the radiological health effects of nuclear power plant accidents. Models of early and continuing effects, cancers and thyroid nodules, and genetic effects are provided. Two-parameter Weibull hazard functions are recommended for estimating the risks of early and continuing health effects. Three potentially lethal early effects -- the hematopoietic, pulmonary and gastrointestinal syndromes -- are considered. Linear and linear-quadratic models are recommended for estimating cancer risks. Parameters are given for analyzing the risks of seven types of cancer in adults -- leukemia, bone, lung, breast, gastrointestinal, thyroid and ''other''. The category, ''other'' cancers, is intended to reflect the combined risks of multiple myeloma, lymphoma, and cancers of the bladder, kidney, brain, ovary, uterus and cervix. Models of childhood cancers due to in utero exposure are also provided. For most cancers, both incidence and mortality are addressed. Linear and linear-quadratic models are also recommended for assessing genetic risks. Five classes of genetic disease -- dominant, x-linked, aneuploidy, unbalanced translocation and multifactorial diseases --are considered. In addition, the impact of radiation-induced genetic damage on the incidence of peri-implantation embryo losses is discussed. The uncertainty in modeling radiological health risks is addressed by providing central, upper, and lower estimates of all model parameters. Data are provided which should enable analysts to consider the timing and severity of each type of health risk. 22 refs., 14 figs., 51 tabs.

  17. The Research Summary of UF6 Leakage Accident Consequence Assessment%UF6泄漏事故后果评价研究进展

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈海龙

    2013-01-01

    简要介绍了核燃料循环过程中UF6泄漏事故的几类事故情形,以及UF6泄漏后的大气扩散过程。目前,用于UF6泄漏事故后果评价的主要模型是HGSYSTEM/UF6模型和RASCAL模型:一般情况下,两种模型可溶性铀的平均浓度的预测值与实际测量值相比为小于2的数;在D类稳定下RASCAL预测的结果处于高斯模型和HGSYSTEM/UF6之间;而在F类稳定度下,1 km内基本上是RASCAL计算结果最低,1 km外3个模型预测结果无规律性。%This paper gathered and analyzed the scenarios for UF6 release accident ,and the atmosphere diffu-sion of UF6 and the air concentration of UF6 ,HF ,UO2 F2 .The result showed that two models are used to sim-ulate UF6 accidental release now , HGSYSTEM/UF6 model and RASCAL model . The former is a dense gas model ,and the latter is an accident consequence assessment model .The scholar of Portugal compared the two different dispersion models .The results showed that the calculated concentration by RASCAL model is between the HGSYSTEM/UF6 model and Gaussian plume model under the D stability ,but the tendency is complicated under the F stability .

  18. Improvement of radiological consequence estimation methodologies for NPP accidents in the ARGOS and RODOS decision support systems through consideration of contaminant physico-chemical forms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andersson, K.G.; Roos, P. [Technical University of Denmark - DTU (Denmark); Lind, O.C.; Salbu, B. [Norwegian University of Life Sciences/CERAD - NMBU (Norway); Bujan, A.; Duranova, T. [VUJE, Inc. (Slovakia); Ikonomopoulos, A.; Andronopoulos, S. [National Centre for Scientific Research ' Demokritos' (Greece)

    2014-07-01

    The European standard computerized decision support systems RODOS and ARGOS, which are integrated in the operational nuclear emergency preparedness in practically all European countries, as well as in a range of non-European countries, are highly valuable tools for radiological consequence estimation, e.g., in connection with planning and exercising as well as in justification and optimization of intervention strategies. Differences between the Chernobyl and Fukushima accident atmospheric release source terms have demonstrated that differences in release conditions and processes may lead to very different degrees of volatilization of some radionuclides. Also the physico-chemical properties of radionuclides released can depend strongly on the release process. An example from the Chernobyl accident of the significance of this is that strontium particles released in the fire were oxidized and thus generally physico-chemically different from those released during the preceding explosion. This is reflected in the very different environmental mobility of the two groups of particles. The initial elemental matrix characteristics of the contaminants, as well as environmental parameters like pH, determine for instance the particle dissolution time functions, and thus the environmental mobility and potential for uptake in living organisms. As ICRP recommends optimization of intervention according to residual dose, it is crucial to estimate long term dose contributions adequately. In the EURATOM FP7 project PREPARE, an effort is made to integrate physico-chemical forms of contaminants in scenario-specific source term determination, thereby enabling consideration of influences on atmospheric dispersion/deposition, post-deposition migration, and effectiveness of countermeasure implementation. The first step in this context was to investigate, based on available experience, the important physico-chemical properties of radio-contaminants that might potentially be released to the

  19. 日本福岛第一核电站事故源项及后果评价%Fukushima Daiichi NPS Accident Source Term and Consequence Assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王海洋; 黄树明; 王晓霞; 尤伟; 米爱军; 张普忠

    2011-01-01

    根据已有的日本福岛第一核电站相关资料,利用美国核管理委员会《轻水堆核电厂事故源项》中的假设条件,计算出事故后安全壳内的放射性源项,综合考虑各种不确定性因素,得出较为保守的环境释放源项。采用美国核管理委员会RG 1.4中大气扩散模式的假设计算大气弥散因子,并应用ICRP 71号出版物F、GR 12号报告等资料中的剂量计算模式及剂量转换因子进行了事故剂量后果的估算、分析和评价。%Conservative source term of radioactive release to the environment is calculated after the accident at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station based on updated informational materials and the assumptions made in NUREG-1465 by U.S.Nuclear Regulatory Commission(U.S.NRC),with the consideration of the various uncertainties.And a series of atmospheric dispersion factors are obtained from U.S.NRC Regulatory Guide 1.4(RG 1.4).Finally,this paper provides calculation of the accidental dose,which is analyzed and assessed specifically,using the models and parameters in ICRP Publication 71,FGR 12 and so on.

  20. Trust within the Organizations of the New Economy: an Empirical Analysis of the Consequences of Institutional Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Tulio F. Zanini

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the effects of different institutional frameworks on the levels of trust within hierarchies. Following the insight into the changing of labour contracts provided by New Economy theorists and International Labour Organization [ILO] reports, this study investigates the possible differences in the levels of trust between two paradigms: the Old Economy and the New Economy. We argue that singular institutional changes which better characterize the New Economy in the form of environmental uncertainty set considerable constrains on trust development. By approaching trust as a dependent variable in a cross-industrial comparison, a questionnaire survey was carried out in Brazil accessing the levels of trust within seven Brazilian private companies. From the literature review and empirical observation of the reality of these organizations, companies were identified and classified into different groups. The study concludes that relative high institutional uncertainty considerably limits the development of trust levels within those companies operating in the New Economy.

  1. THE ROLE OF BELARUS NATIONAL COMMISSION ON RADIATION PROTECTION IN THE MINIMIZATION OF CONSEQUENCES OF THE ACCIDENT AT THE CHERNOBYL NUCLEAR POWER PLANT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. N. Stozharov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The Belarus National Commission on Radiation Protection was established in 1991, based on the former Byelorussian Soviet Socialist Republic Supreme Council Resolution. The Commission works out recommendations on the radiation protection to submit to the state authorities, state institutions under the Republic of Belarus Government and state research institutions, reviews and assesses scientific data in the field of radiation protection and makes suggestions in regards of the implementation of the achieved developments. The Commission engages leading scientists and practitioners from Belarus, involved in the provision of the radiation protection and safety in the state. The methodological cornerstone for the Commission activities was chosen to be the committment to the worldwide accepted approach of the nature and magnitude of the undertaken protective measures justification in the field of radiation safety. The Commission adheres the ALARA optimization criteria as the core of the aforementioned approach. The Commission has also submited to the Government a number of developments which were crucial in the highest level managerial decisions elaboration. The latter impacted directly the state tactics and strategy in the environmental, health and social consequences of the Chernobyl disaster minimization. Following the recommendations of the international institutions (ICRP, IAEA, UNSCEAR, FAO/WHO, developments of the colleagues in the Russian Federation, Ukraine and the local regional experience, the Commission proceeds with the expert observation of the ongoing protective measures to reduce the radiation impact and population exposure resulted from the Chernobyl accident, is actively occupied in the radiation safety ensuring at the Belarussian nuclear power plant being under construction, much contributes to elaboration of the new version of the state Law “On Radiation Protection of Population” and other regulatory documents.

  2. Accidents with sulfuric acid

    OpenAIRE

    Rajković Miloš B.

    2006-01-01

    Sulfuric acid is an important industrial and strategic raw material, the production of which is developing on all continents, in many factories in the world and with an annual production of over 160 million tons. On the other hand, the production, transport and usage are very dangerous and demand measures of precaution because the consequences could be catastrophic, and not only at the local level where the accident would happen. Accidents that have been publicly recorded during the last eigh...

  3. Impact of Uncertainties in Exposure Assessment on Thyroid Cancer Risk among Persons in Belarus Exposed as Children or Adolescents Due to the Chernobyl Accident.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark P Little

    Full Text Available The excess incidence of thyroid cancer in Ukraine and Belarus observed a few years after the Chernobyl accident is considered to be largely the result of 131I released from the reactor. Although the Belarus thyroid cancer prevalence data has been previously analyzed, no account was taken of dose measurement error.We examined dose-response patterns in a thyroid screening prevalence cohort of 11,732 persons aged under 18 at the time of the accident, diagnosed during 1996-2004, who had direct thyroid 131I activity measurement, and were resident in the most radio-actively contaminated regions of Belarus. Three methods of dose-error correction (regression calibration, Monte Carlo maximum likelihood, Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo were applied.There was a statistically significant (p0.2.In summary, the relatively small contribution of unshared classical dose error in the current study results in comparatively modest effects on the regression parameters.

  4. Communicating Low-Probability High-Consequence Risk, Uncertainty and Expert Confidence: Induced Seismicity of Deep Geothermal Energy and Shale Gas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knoblauch, Theresa A K; Stauffacher, Michael; Trutnevyte, Evelina

    2017-08-10

    Subsurface energy activities entail the risk of induced seismicity including low-probability high-consequence (LPHC) events. For designing respective risk communication, the scientific literature lacks empirical evidence of how the public reacts to different written risk communication formats about such LPHC events and to related uncertainty or expert confidence. This study presents findings from an online experiment (N = 590) that empirically tested the public's responses to risk communication about induced seismicity and to different technology frames, namely deep geothermal energy (DGE) and shale gas (between-subject design). Three incrementally different formats of written risk communication were tested: (i) qualitative, (ii) qualitative and quantitative, and (iii) qualitative and quantitative with risk comparison. Respondents found the latter two the easiest to understand, the most exact, and liked them the most. Adding uncertainty and expert confidence statements made the risk communication less clear, less easy to understand and increased concern. Above all, the technology for which risks are communicated and its acceptance mattered strongly: respondents in the shale gas condition found the identical risk communication less trustworthy and more concerning than in the DGE conditions. They also liked the risk communication overall less. For practitioners in DGE or shale gas projects, the study shows that the public would appreciate efforts in describing LPHC risks with numbers and optionally risk comparisons. However, there seems to be a trade-off between aiming for transparency by disclosing uncertainty and limited expert confidence, and thereby decreasing clarity and increasing concern in the view of the public. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  5. Accident Process and Consequence Research for LOCA Combining with Blackout Accident of Ship Reactor%船用堆破口叠加全船断电事故进程及后果研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张帆; 陈航; 张彦招; 晏峰

    2015-01-01

    Using MELCOR code ,the combination of LOCA and blackout accident of ship reactor was modeled and calculated , and the accident process and source term release were researched . The results show that the accident leads to lower head of pressure vessel and bilge creep‐rupture finally without emergency power .The release fraction of inert gases and iodine are above 80% ,the main form of iodine is CsI with great deposit and less airborne fraction .The accident process is decided by the equiva‐lent diameter of break size .The production of H2 is decided by core temperature and water remaining in the core ,but has nothing to do with equivalent diameter of break size .T he probability of H2 detonation is unlikely to occur .T he results can provide tech‐nical support for emergency maintenance and emergency decision‐making .%采用M ELCOR程序,对船用堆破口叠加全船断电事故进行建模计算,并对事故进程和源项释放进行了研究。计算结果表明:若应急电源无法投入,最终将导致压力容器下封头失效和舱底失效;所研究事故的惰性气体、碘释放量均在80%以上,且释放的I主要以CsI形式存在,滞留量大,气载量小。事故进展快慢取决于破口当量尺寸,但氢气的产量与堆芯温度、堆芯残余水量相关,与破口当量尺寸无直接关系,堆舱内发生氢爆可能性不大。本文计算结果可为应急抢修和应急决策提供技术支持。

  6. What are the consequences of the reactor accident in Fukushima for the evaluation of nuclear risk?; Welche Folgen hat der Kernkraftwerksunfall in Fukushima fuer die Bewertung von Kernenergierisiken?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Renn, Ortwin [Univ. Stuttgart (Germany). Inst. Sozialwissenshaften V; Gallego Carrera, Diana [Univ. Stuttgart (Germany). ZIRIUS Zentrum fuer Interdiszipliaere Risiko- und Innovationsforschung

    2015-06-01

    There are historical breaks in the relation of risk analysis, risk perception and regulation policy. The year 2011 with the reactor accident in the NPP Fukushima was such a break, especially in Germany. The nuclear phase-out was reduced to ten years the energy policy turnaround received a broad societal agreement. Nuclear facilities loose public acceptance, the risk perception has changed. The Japanese evaluation results on faulty and nontransparent behavior and the lack of governance of responsible persons and authorities including a poor accident management have further decreased the public confidence. A new concept of safety culture for all nuclear facilities including the radioactive waste management is required, the communication processes between plant operator, authorities, science and the public have to be intensified.

  7. IMMEDIATE MENTAL CONSEQUENCES OF THE GREAT EAST JAPAN EARTHQUAKE AND FUKUSHIMA NUCLEAR POWER PLANT ACCIDENT ON MOTHERS EXPERIENCING MISCARRIAGE, ABORTION, AND STILLBIRTH: THE FUKUSHIMA HEALTH MANAGEMENT SURVEY

    OpenAIRE

    Yoshida-Komiya, Hiromi; Goto, Aya; Yasumura, Seiji; FUJIMORI, KEIYA; Abe, Masafumi; FOR THE PREGNANCY AND BIRTH SURVEY GROUP OF THE FUKUSHIMA HEALTH MANAGEMENT SURVEY,

    2015-01-01

    Background: The Fukushima Pregnancy and Birth Survey was launched to monitor pregnant mothers’ health after the Great East Japan Earthquake and Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) accident. Several lines of investigations have indicated that a disaster impacts maternal mental health with childbirth. However, there is no research regarding mental health of mothers with fetal loss after a disaster. In this report, we focus on those women immediately after the Great East Japan Earthquake...

  8. Immediate mental consequences of the great east Japan earthquake and Fukushima nuclear power Plant accident on mothers experiencing miscarriage, abortion, and stillbirth: the Fukushima health management survey

    OpenAIRE

    YOSHIDA-KOMIYA, HIROMI; Goto, Aya; Yasumura, Seiji; FUJIMORI, KEIYA; Abe, Masafumi

    2015-01-01

    Background: The Fukushima Pregnancy and Birth Survey was launched to monitor pregnant mothers' health after the Great East Japan Earthquake and Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) accident. Several lines of investigations have indicated that a disaster impacts maternal mental health with childbirth. However, there is no research regarding mental health of mothers with fetal loss after a disaster. In this report, we focus on those women immediately after the Great East Japan Earthquake...

  9. Accidents with sulfuric acid

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajković Miloš B.

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Sulfuric acid is an important industrial and strategic raw material, the production of which is developing on all continents, in many factories in the world and with an annual production of over 160 million tons. On the other hand, the production, transport and usage are very dangerous and demand measures of precaution because the consequences could be catastrophic, and not only at the local level where the accident would happen. Accidents that have been publicly recorded during the last eighteen years (from 1988 till the beginning of 2006 are analyzed in this paper. It is very alarming data that, according to all the recorded accidents, over 1.6 million tons of sulfuric acid were exuded. Although water transport is the safest (only 16.38% of the total amount of accidents in that way 98.88% of the total amount of sulfuric acid was exuded into the environment. Human factor was the common factor in all the accidents, whether there was enough control of the production process, of reservoirs or transportation tanks or the transport was done by inadequate (old tanks, or the accidents arose from human factor (inadequate speed, lock of caution etc. The fact is that huge energy, sacrifice and courage were involved in the recovery from accidents where rescue teams and fire brigades showed great courage to prevent real environmental catastrophes and very often they lost their lives during the events. So, the phrase that sulfuric acid is a real "environmental bomb" has become clearer.

  10. HTGR accident initiation and progression analysis status report. Volume V. AIPA fission product source terms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alberstein, D.; Apperson, C.E. Jr.; Hanson, D.L.; Myers, B.F.; Pfeiffer, W.W.

    1976-02-01

    The primary objective of the Accident Initiation and Progression Analysis (AIPA) Program is to provide guidance for high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) safety research and development. Among the parameters considered in estimating the uncertainties in site boundary doses are uncertainties in fission product source terms generated under normal operating conditions, i.e., fuel body inventories, circulating coolant activity, total plateout activity in the primary circuit, and plateout distributions. The volume presented documents the analyses of these source term uncertainties. The results are used for the detailed consequence evaluations, and they provide the basis for evaluation of fission products important for HTGR maintenance and shielding.

  11. Learning from incidents and accidents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Drupsteen, L.; Kampen, J. van

    2014-01-01

    There are many different definitions for what constitutes an incident or an accident, however the focus is always on unintended and often unforeseen events that cause unintended consequences. This article is focused on the process of learning from incidents and accidents. The focus is on making sure

  12. Learning from incidents and accidents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Drupsteen, L.; Kampen, J. van

    2014-01-01

    There are many different definitions for what constitutes an incident or an accident, however the focus is always on unintended and often unforeseen events that cause unintended consequences. This article is focused on the process of learning from incidents and accidents. The focus is on making sure

  13. Structure of the thyroid pathology in the radiation exposed areas of Leningrad region: late consequences of Chernobyl accident after 20 years

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Semenov, A.; Uspenskaya, A.; Bychenkova, E.; Chinchuk, I.; Novokshonov, K.; Chernikov, R.; Sleptsov, I.; Bubnov, A.; Fedotov, Y.; Makarin, V.; Karelina, Y. [Endocrinology, NWRMC FHSDA, ST-Petersburg (Russian Federation)

    2012-07-01

    After the Chernobyl accident large areas of the USSR were contaminated with fallout, it has been proved that I{sup 131} caused higher incidence of papillary thyroid cancer in children and adolescents. Further observation for over 20 years showed retention of high annual prevalence of this pathology among the population. The aim of this study is to evaluate the ultimate result of the influence of I{sup 131} on the thyroid gland. The study included 454 women living in localities affected by the Chernobyl accident in April-May 1986 (case) and 909 women living in fallout-free localities (ICCIDD method). The incidence of malignant thyroid tumors among the inhabitants of the contaminated territories is higher than in the control area. This phenomenon can not be unambiguously attributed to radiation induced cancers, but requires further investigation, perhaps by the method of carrying out continuous and all-round prophylactic medical examination. High incidence of autoimmune changes can be considered to have been caused by the action of I{sup 131} and prophylactic supplement with stable iodine

  14. Bicycle accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lind, M G; Wollin, S

    1986-01-01

    Information concerning 520 bicycle accidents and their victims was obtained from medical records and the victims' replies to questionnaires. The analyzed aspects included risk of injury, completeness of accident registrations by police and in hospitals, types of injuries and influence of the cyclists' age and sex, alcohol, fatigue, hunger, haste, physical disability, purpose of cycling, wearing of protective helmet and other clothing, type and quality of road surface, site of accident (road junctions, separate cycle paths, etc.) and turning manoeuvres.

  15. SOARCA Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Long-Term Station Blackout Uncertainty Analysis: Convergence of the Uncertainty Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bixler, Nathan E.; Osborn, Douglas.; Sallaberry, Cedric Jean-Marie; Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia; Mattie, Patrick D.; Ghosh, S. Tina

    2014-02-01

    This paper describes the convergence of MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System, Version 2 (MACCS2) probabilistic results of offsite consequences for the uncertainty analysis of the State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) unmitigated long-term station blackout scenario at the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. The consequence metrics evaluated are individual latent-cancer fatality (LCF) risk and individual early fatality risk. Consequence results are presented as conditional risk (i.e., assuming the accident occurs, risk per event) to individuals of the public as a result of the accident. In order to verify convergence for this uncertainty analysis, as recommended by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards, a ‘high’ source term from the original population of Monte Carlo runs has been selected to be used for: (1) a study of the distribution of consequence results stemming solely from epistemic uncertainty in the MACCS2 parameters (i.e., separating the effect from the source term uncertainty), and (2) a comparison between Simple Random Sampling (SRS) and Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) in order to validate the original results obtained with LHS. Three replicates (each using a different random seed) of size 1,000 each using LHS and another set of three replicates of size 1,000 using SRS are analyzed. The results show that the LCF risk results are well converged with either LHS or SRS sampling. The early fatality risk results are less well converged at radial distances beyond 2 miles, and this is expected due to the sparse data (predominance of “zero” results).

  16. 汽油储罐化学爆炸事故后果模拟分析%Simulation Analysis of the Consequence of Chemical Gasoline Tank Explosion Accident

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张啸

    2014-01-01

    一直以来,汽油储罐化学爆炸事故模型被用来评审加油站的安全评价报告,所以本文通过实际模拟计算来分析汽油储罐化学爆炸事故模型,以方便加油站进行安全管理。%Chemical gasoline tank explosion accident model has been used to review the safety assessment report of the gas station for a long time. So this article analyzes the chemical gasoline tank explosion model through the actual simulation to facilitate the gas station for safety management.

  17. Research with radiation and radioisotopes to better understand plant physiology and agricultural consequences of radioactive contamination from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakanishi, Tomoko M

    2017-01-01

    Research carried out by me and my group over the last almost four decades are summarized here. The main emphasis of my work was and continues to be on plant physiology using radiation and radioisotopes. Plants live on water and inorganic elements. In the case of water, we developed neutron imaging methods and produced (15)O-labeled water (half-life 2 min) and applied them to understand water circulation pattern in the plant. In the case of elements, we developed neutron activation analysis methods to analyze a large number of plant tissues to follow element specific distribution. Then, we developed real-time imaging system using conventional radioisotopes for the macroscopic and microscopic observation of element movement. After the accident in Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, we, the academic staff of Graduate School, have been studying agricultural effects of radioactive fallout; the main results are summarized in two books published by Springer.

  18. Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis. Modification of models resulting from addition of effects of exposure to alpha-emitting radionuclides: Revision 1, Part 2, Scientific bases for health effects models, Addendum 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abrahamson, S. [Wisconsin Univ., Madison, WI (United States); Bender, M.A. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States); Boecker, B.B.; Scott, B.R. [Lovelace Biomedical and Environmental Research Inst., Albuquerque, NM (United States). Inhalation Toxicology Research Inst.; Gilbert, E.S. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1993-05-01

    The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has sponsored several studies to identify and quantify, through the use of models, the potential health effects of accidental releases of radionuclides from nuclear power plants. The Reactor Safety Study provided the basis for most of the earlier estimates related to these health effects. Subsequent efforts by NRC-supported groups resulted in improved health effects models that were published in the report entitled {open_quotes}Health Effects Models for Nuclear Power Plant Consequence Analysis{close_quotes}, NUREG/CR-4214, 1985 and revised further in the 1989 report NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 2. The health effects models presented in the 1989 NUREG/CR-4214 report were developed for exposure to low-linear energy transfer (LET) (beta and gamma) radiation based on the best scientific information available at that time. Since the 1989 report was published, two addenda to that report have been prepared to (1) incorporate other scientific information related to low-LET health effects models and (2) extend the models to consider the possible health consequences of the addition of alpha-emitting radionuclides to the exposure source term. The first addendum report, entitled {open_quotes}Health Effects Models for Nuclear Power Plant Accident Consequence Analysis, Modifications of Models Resulting from Recent Reports on Health Effects of Ionizing Radiation, Low LET Radiation, Part 2: Scientific Bases for Health Effects Models,{close_quotes} was published in 1991 as NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 2, Addendum 1. This second addendum addresses the possibility that some fraction of the accident source term from an operating nuclear power plant comprises alpha-emitting radionuclides. Consideration of chronic high-LET exposure from alpha radiation as well as acute and chronic exposure to low-LET beta and gamma radiations is a reasonable extension of the health effects model.

  19. Report on the consequences of Chernobylsk accident in France Minister missions from the 25. february to 6. august 2002; Rapport sur les consequences de l'accident de Tchernobyl en France missions ministerielles du 25 fevrier et du 6 aout 2002

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aurengo, A

    2006-04-15

    Actually, we have not any map that gives reliable quantitative data of Chernobylsk accident fallout on soils. The maps proposed for these deposits give order of magnitude; they find east-west gradient conform to the origin of the accident and confirm the importance of the rain. But the quantitative value is only an approximation where the precision is not known (error interval). It does not allow to know the radiation doses to the thyroid because the food contamination does not increase like the soils contamination. It could be possible to improve the models but the scientific council of I.R.S.N. proposes to realize a periodic ground state of soils contamination in cesium. It would be a better step of a more reliable mapping of Chernobylsk accident fallout. (N.C.)

  20. Accidents in nuclear ships

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oelgaard, P.L. [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark)]|[Technical Univ. of Denmark, Lyngby (Denmark)

    1996-12-01

    This report starts with a discussion of the types of nuclear vessels accidents, in particular accidents which involve the nuclear propulsion systems. Next available information on 61 reported nuclear ship events in considered. Of these 6 deals with U.S. ships, 54 with USSR ships and 1 with a French ship. The ships are in almost all cases nuclear submarines. Only events that involve the sinking of vessels, the nuclear propulsion plants, radiation exposures, fires/explosions, sea-water leaks into the submarines and sinking of vessels are considered. For each event a summary of available information is presented, and comments are added. In some cases the available information is not credible, and these events are neglected. This reduces the number of events to 5 U.S. events, 35 USSR/Russian events and 1 French event. A comparison is made between the reported Soviet accidents and information available on dumped and damaged Soviet naval reactors. It seems possible to obtain good correlation between the two types of events. An analysis is made of the accident and estimates are made of the accident probabilities which are found to be of the order of 10{sup -3} per ship reactor years. It if finally pointed out that the consequences of nuclear ship accidents are fairly local and does in no way not approach the magnitude of the Chernobyl accident. It is emphasized that some of the information on which this report is based, may not be correct. Consequently some of the results of the assessments made may not be correct. (au).

  1. 某涉氨制冷企业液氨储罐泄漏事故的后果分析%Analysis of An Ammonia Refrigeration Enterprise Involved in Liquid Ammonia Storage Tank Leakage Accident Consequence

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    周峰

    2014-01-01

    以某涉氨制冷企业液氨储罐为例,选用蒸气云爆炸、沸腾液体扩展蒸气爆炸和中毒模型对液氨储罐泄漏事故进行后果分析,定量地得出各类伤害半径,为企业制定应急救援预案和政府进行安全监管提供科学依据。%Taking the liquid ammonia tank of a refrigeration enterprise as example, the consequences of liquid ammonia storage tank leakage accident were analyzed using vapor cloud explosion model, boiling liq-uid expanding vapor explosion model and poisoning model. The various damage radiuses were calculated. It provided the scientific basis for enterprises to formulate emergency rescue plans and for safety supervision of government.

  2. HCTISN - Plenary extraordinary meeting on the 9 March 2012 - General consequences of the earthquake and tsunami; Status of Fukushima-Dai-ichi nuclear installations; The Fukushima accident, one year after: environmental and health situation in Japan; Protective actions undertaken by Japanese authorities; Support by AREVA to Japan after the Fukushima accident; What went on in Fukushima? Implementation of the IAEA nuclear safety action plan; Review of European stress tests by the peers; Opinion of the ASN on complementary safety assessments (CSAs); HCTISN - Reunion pleniere extraordinaire du 9 mars 2012: Consequences generales du seisme et du tusnami; Situation des installations nucleaires de Fukushima Dai-ichi; L'accident de Fukushima 1 an apres: situation environnementale et sanitaire au Japon; Les actions de protection engagees par les autorites japonaises; Aide apportee par AREVA au Japon suite a l'accident de Fukushima; Que s'est-il passe a Fukushima?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kataoka, Susumu [Ambassade du Japon en France, 7 Avenue Hoche, 75008 Paris (France); Charles, T.; Champion, Didier [Institut de radioprotection et de surete nucleaire - IRSN, 31, avenue de la Division Leclerc, 92260 Fontenay-aux-Roses (France); Jean-Luc Godet [Autorite de surete nucleaire, 6, place du Colonel Bourgoin, 75012 Paris (France); ASN/DIS, 10, Route du Panorama, 92266 Fontenay-aux-Roses cedex (France); Arnaud GAY [Business Unit Valorisation - AREVA (France); Philippe Jamet [European Nuclear Safety Regulators Group - ENSREG, Autorite de surete nucleaire, 6, place du Colonel Bourgoin, 75012 Paris (France)

    2012-03-09

    This document contains Power Point presentations proposed during a plenary session of the High Committee transparency and information on nuclear safety (HCTISN). The contributions addressed the Fukushima accident (the earthquake and the tsunami, the technical consequences on the plant, the consequences on the environment and on health, the different actions undertaken in Japan to protect the population, the consequences on nuclear safety in other countries with notably the performance of stress tests or the organisation of complementary safety assessments on the French fleet of nuclear reactors

  3. [Ethics, empiricism and uncertainty].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porz, R; Zimmermann, H; Exadaktylos, A K

    2011-01-01

    Accidents can lead to difficult boundary situations. Such situations often take place in the emergency units. The medical team thus often and inevitably faces professional uncertainty in their decision-making. It is essential to communicate these uncertainties within the medical team, instead of downplaying or overriding existential hurdles in decision-making. Acknowledging uncertainties might lead to alert and prudent decisions. Thus uncertainty can have ethical value in treatment or withdrawal of treatment. It does not need to be covered in evidence-based arguments, especially as some singular situations of individual tragedies cannot be grasped in terms of evidence-based medicine. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  4. Dermatological consequences of the Cs-137 radiological accident in Goiania, Goias State, Brazil; Repercussoes dermatologicas no acidente radioativo com o Cesio 137 em Goiania

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Castro, Lia Candida Miranda de

    1996-07-01

    The objective of the present study was to analyse the occurrence of dermatosis in individuals that had been exposed to cesium{sup 137} during the radioactive accident in Goiania, in 1987 and detect pre-cancerous dermatosis or those predictive of low immunity. The groups were evaluated according to the intensity of radiation they had been exposed to and then compared to a control group of people not exposed to radiation. The population exposed to the cesium{sup 137} was comprised of 109 people, who were divided into Groups I and II, according to the CNEN norms. In group I, 54 people with {<=} 20 rads exposure and/or radio lesion were included; in group II, 55 people with > 20 rads exposure were included, along with the children of group I individuals. This was a historic cohort study, that is, a retrospective study that lasted 9 years, extending from September of 1987 to August, 1996. The presence of the oncoprotein p-53 was studied in the radio lesions of 10 patients. There is no evidence of an increase in the incidence of dermatosis in the exposed groups, excepts for pyoderma in patients with radio lesions. The most frequent dermatosis were: pyoderma, pityriasis versicolor, scabies, dermatophytosis and seborrhoeic dermatitis. The results obtained were not statistically significant for the evaluation of dermatosis predictive of low immunity or precancerous lesions. The oncoprotein p-53 in individuals with radio lesion showed a 80% positivity rate and risk factor estimated in 8 times, for the test. It has proved to be useful because it represents one more option in terms of propaedeutic evaluation and suggests that one should pay close and continuous attention in order to better control the evolution of these individuals. (author)

  5. Assessment of accident risks in the CRBRP. Volume 2. Appendices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1977-03-01

    Appendices to Volume I include core-related accident-sequence definition, CRBRP risk-assessment sequence-probability determinations, failure-probability data, accident scenario evaluation, radioactive material release analysis, ex-core accident analysis, safety philosophy and design features, calculation of reactor accident consequences, sensitivity study, and risk from fires.

  6. The Fukushima accident; Accident nucleaire a Fukushima

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Delbecq, D.

    2012-02-15

    The Fukushima accident is characterized by a sequence of natural disasters: earthquake and tsunamis that deprived simultaneously 3 reactors from cooling and electrical power for quite a long time. A series of hydrogen explosion has added to the mess. Experts agree to say that certainly nuclear fuel has melt to form corium in all 3 reactors. The accident has contaminated tens of thousand acres of land around the plant and has jeopardized local coastal fishery. The human toll is unexpectedly low: no direct casualty in the population but several suicides among the people that was forced to leave their home. 5 people from the plant staff died certainly from the consequences of the tsunami. (A.C.)

  7. Accident Statistics

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — Accident statistics available on the Coast Guard’s website by state, year, and one variable to obtain tables and/or graphs. Data from reports has been loaded for...

  8. Determinants of participation in a longitudinal two-stage study of the health consequences of the Chornobyl nuclear power plant accident

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zakhozha Victoria

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The determinants of participation in long-term follow-up studies of disasters have rarely been delineated. Even less is known from studies of events that occurred in eastern Europe. We examined the factors associated with participation in a longitudinal two-stage study conducted in Kyiv following the 1986 Chornobyl nuclear power plant accident. Methods Six hundred child-mother dyads (300 evacuees and 300 classmate controls were initially assessed in 1997 when the children were 11 years old, and followed up in 2005–6 when they were 19 years old. A population control group (304 mothers and 327 children was added in 2005–6. Each assessment point involved home interviews with the children and mothers (stage 1, followed by medical examinations of the children at a clinic (stage 2. Background characteristics, health status, and Chornobyl risk perceptions were examined. Results The participation rates in the follow-up home interviews were 87.8% for the children (88.6% for evacuees; 87.0% for classmates and 83.7% for their mothers (86.4% for evacuees and 81.0% for classmates. Children's and mothers' participation was predicted by one another's study participation and attendance at the medical examination at time 1. Mother's participation was also predicted by initial concerns about her child's health, greater psychological distress, and Chornobyl risk perceptions. In 1997, 91.2% of the children had a medical examination (91.7% of evacuees and 90.7% of classmates; in 2005–6, 85.2% were examined (83.0% of evacuees, 87.7% of classmates, 85.0% of population controls. At both times, poor health perceptions were associated with receiving a medical examination. In 2005–6, clinic attendance was also associated with the young adults' risk perceptions, depression or generalized anxiety disorder, lower standard of living, and female gender. Conclusion Despite our low attrition rates, we identified several determinants of selective

  9. Sports Accidents

    CERN Multimedia

    Kiebel

    1972-01-01

    Le Docteur Kiebel, chirurgien à Genève, est aussi un grand ami de sport et de temps en temps médecin des classes genevoises de ski et également médecin de l'équipe de hockey sur glace de Genève Servette. Il est bien qualifié pour nous parler d'accidents de sport et surtout d'accidents de ski.

  10. Industrial accidents triggered by lightning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renni, Elisabetta; Krausmann, Elisabeth; Cozzani, Valerio

    2010-12-15

    Natural disasters can cause major accidents in chemical facilities where they can lead to the release of hazardous materials which in turn can result in fires, explosions or toxic dispersion. Lightning strikes are the most frequent cause of major accidents triggered by natural events. In order to contribute towards the development of a quantitative approach for assessing lightning risk at industrial facilities, lightning-triggered accident case histories were retrieved from the major industrial accident databases and analysed to extract information on types of vulnerable equipment, failure dynamics and damage states, as well as on the final consequences of the event. The most vulnerable category of equipment is storage tanks. Lightning damage is incurred by immediate ignition, electrical and electronic systems failure or structural damage with subsequent release. Toxic releases and tank fires tend to be the most common scenarios associated with lightning strikes. Oil, diesel and gasoline are the substances most frequently released during lightning-triggered Natech accidents.

  11. Effects of source term characteristics on Off Site consequence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Han, Seok Jung; Ahn, Kwang Il [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-10-15

    Off site consequence analysis in Level 3 PSA is mainly affected by source term release characteristics of nuclear plant. The severe accident analysis codes for quantifying the source term release characteristics such as MELCOR and MAAP provide detailed information of these characteristics to assess the off site consequence. The aforementioned characteristics, however, have not been considered in the consequence analysis of domestic plants because of large uncertainty in these characteristics so far. Recently, the USNRC SOARCA report showed an approach to utilize detailed source term characteristics provided by MELCOR code to quantify the off site consequence more realistically. Main purpose of this study is to assess effects of the MELCOR source term characteristics on the off site consequence analysis of a domestic nuclear power plant, in a similar fashion to the SOARCA approach. Among many features characterizing source term, the most important one is to determine initial and boundary conditions of atmospheric dispersion such as:- Release amounts of source term - Release time and duration Moreover, plumes features (i.e., radiation clouds) affect atmospheric dispersion that shapes plume characteristics as follows: - Initial dimension of plumes - Plume rise - Deposition of radioactive materials during dispersion Although the current severe accident codes have some limitation in providing the entire source term release characteristics needed in the consequence analysis, the essential information for these features could be obtained from these codes. It is noted that the typical approaches, which generate source term information for the consequence analysis from the severe accident codes, should require a technical manipulation by the experts of consequence analysis. The present effort focused on an identification of insights to utilize source term characteristics of the severe accident codes.

  12. Radiation protection: an analysis of thyroid blocking. [Effectiveness of KI in reducing radioactive uptake following potential reactor accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aldrich, D C; Blond, R M

    1980-01-01

    An analysis was performed to provide guidance to policymakers concerning the effectiveness of potassium iodide (KI) as a thyroid blocking agent in potential reactor accident situations, the distance to which (or area within which) it should be distributed, and its relative effectiveness compared to other available protective measures. The analysis was performed using the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) consequence model. Four categories of accidents were addressed: gap activity release accident (GAP), GAP without containment isolation, core melt with a melt-through release, and core melt with an atmospheric release. Cost-benefit ratios (US $/thyroid nodule prevented) are given assuming that no other protective measures are taken. Uncertainties due to health effects parameters, accident probabilities, and costs are assessed. The effects of other potential protective measures, such as evacuation and sheltering, and the impact on children (critical population) are evaluated. Finally, risk-benefit considerations are briefly discussed.

  13. Summary of a workshop on severe accident management for BWRs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kastenberg, W.E. [ed.; Apostolakis, G.; Jae, M.; Milici, T.; Park, H.; Xing, L.; Dhir, V.K.; Lim, H.; Okrent, D.; Swider, J.; Yu, D. [California Univ., Los Angeles, CA (United States). Dept. of Mechanical, Aerospace and Nuclear Engineering

    1991-11-01

    Severe accident management can be defined as the use of existing and/or alternative resources, systems and actions to prevent or mitigate a core-melt accident. For each accident sequence and each combination of strategies there may be several options available to the operator; and each involves phenomenological and operational considerations regarding uncertainty. Operational uncertainties include operator, system and instrument behavior during an accident. During the period September 26--28, 1990, a workshop was held at the University of California, Los Angeles, to address these uncertainties for Boiling Water Reactors (BWRs). This report contains a summary of the workshop proceedings.

  14. Source terms: an investigation of uncertainties, magnitudes, and recommendations for research. [PWR; BWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Levine, S.; Kaiser, G. D.; Arcieri, W. C.; Firstenberg, H.; Fulford, P. J.; Lam, P. S.; Ritzman, R. L.; Schmidt, E. R.

    1982-03-01

    The purpose of this document is to assess the state of knowledge and expert opinions that exist about fission product source terms from potential nuclear power plant accidents. This is so that recommendations can be made for research and analyses which have the potential to reduce the uncertainties in these estimated source terms and to derive improved methods for predicting their magnitudes. The main reasons for writing this report are to indicate the major uncertainties involved in defining realistic source terms that could arise from severe reactor accidents, to determine which factors would have the most significant impact on public risks and emergency planning, and to suggest research and analyses that could result in the reduction of these uncertainties. Source terms used in the conventional consequence calculations in the licensing process are not explicitly addressed.

  15. Source terms: an investigation of uncertainties, magnitudes, and recommendations for research. [PWR; BWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Levine, S.; Kaiser, G. D.; Arcieri, W. C.; Firstenberg, H.; Fulford, P. J.; Lam, P. S.; Ritzman, R. L.; Schmidt, E. R.

    1982-03-01

    The purpose of this document is to assess the state of knowledge and expert opinions that exist about fission product source terms from potential nuclear power plant accidents. This is so that recommendations can be made for research and analyses which have the potential to reduce the uncertainties in these estimated source terms and to derive improved methods for predicting their magnitudes. The main reasons for writing this report are to indicate the major uncertainties involved in defining realistic source terms that could arise from severe reactor accidents, to determine which factors would have the most significant impact on public risks and emergency planning, and to suggest research and analyses that could result in the reduction of these uncertainties. Source terms used in the conventional consequence calculations in the licensing process are not explicitly addressed.

  16. Analysis on the `Thermite` reaction consequences in accidents involving research reactors using plate-type fuel; Analisis sobre las concequencias de la reaccion `Termita` en caso de accidentes en reactores de investigacion que utilizan combustible tipo placa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boero, Norma L.; Bruno, Hernan R.; Camacho, Esteban F.; Cincotta, Daniel O.; Yorio, Daniel [Comision Nacional de Energia Atomica, San Carlos de Bariloche (Argentina). Centro Atomico Constituyentes

    1999-11-01

    The mixture of Al-U{sub 3} O{sub 8} is not in a state of chemical equilibrium, and at temperatures of between 850 deg C and 1000 deg C, it reacts exo thermally. This is known, in corresponding bibliography as a `Thermite reaction. This mixture is used in the manufacturing of the plate-type fuel used in research reactors. It has been pointed out that the release of energy caused by this type of reactions might represent a risk in case of accidents in this type of reactor. Conclusions, in general, tend to indicate that no such risk exists, although no concrete assurance is given that this is the case, and this fact, therefore, leaves room for doubt. The objective of this paper is to provide an in-depth study of what happens to a fuel plate when it is subjected to thermite reaction. We will, furthermore, analyze the consequences of the release of energy generated by this type of reaction within the core of the reactor, clearly defining the problem for this type of fuel and this kind of reactor. (author) 3 refs., 9 figs., 1 tab.

  17. Quantifying the risk of extreme aviation accidents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Kumer Pial; Dey, Asim Kumer

    2016-12-01

    Air travel is considered a safe means of transportation. But when aviation accidents do occur they often result in fatalities. Fortunately, the most extreme accidents occur rarely. However, 2014 was the deadliest year in the past decade causing 111 plane crashes, and among them worst four crashes cause 298, 239, 162 and 116 deaths. In this study, we want to assess the risk of the catastrophic aviation accidents by studying historical aviation accidents. Applying a generalized Pareto model we predict the maximum fatalities from an aviation accident in future. The fitted model is compared with some of its competitive models. The uncertainty in the inferences are quantified using simulated aviation accident series, generated by bootstrap resampling and Monte Carlo simulations.

  18. Accident: Reminder

    CERN Document Server

    2003-01-01

    There is no left turn to Point 1 from the customs, direction CERN. A terrible accident happened last week on the Route de Meyrin just outside Entrance B because traffic regulations were not respected. You are reminded that when travelling from the customs, direction CERN, turning left to Point 1 is forbidden. Access to Point 1 from the customs is only via entering CERN, going down to the roundabout and coming back up to the traffic lights at Entrance B

  19. ECOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCES REDUCTION FROM AVIATION ACCIDENTS IMPACTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. I. Nikolaykin

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available В статье предлагается рассматривать авиационные события как источник аварийно-залпового воздействия на окружающую среду. Приведена классификация видов возникающего загрязнения, анализ проблем при разливе горюче-смазочных материалов на месте падения воздушного судна.Предложена система мер по снижению негативного экологического воздействия на почвы затронутой тер- ритории путем их детоксикации. Обосновано применение углеродных сорбентов. Рекомендованы зависимости для расчета необходимого количества активных углей. Показана рекомендуемая последовательность проведения работ на загрязненной территории.

  20. A framework for the assessment of severe accident management strategies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kastenberg, W.E. [ed.; Apostolakis, G.; Dhir, V.K. [California Univ., Los Angeles, CA (United States). Dept. of Mechanical, Aerospace and Nuclear Engineering] [and others

    1993-09-01

    Severe accident management can be defined as the use of existing and/or altemative resources, systems and actors to prevent or mitigate a core-melt accident. For each accident sequence and each combination of severe accident management strategies, there may be several options available to the operator, and each involves phenomenological and operational considerations regarding uncertainty. Operational uncertainties include operator, system and instrumentation behavior during an accident. A framework based on decision trees and influence diagrams has been developed which incorporates such criteria as feasibility, effectiveness, and adverse effects, for evaluating potential severe accident management strategies. The framework is also capable of propagating both data and model uncertainty. It is applied to several potential strategies including PWR cavity flooding, BWR drywell flooding, PWR depressurization and PWR feed and bleed.

  1. Severe accident analysis using dynamic accident progression event trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hakobyan, Aram P.

    In present, the development and analysis of Accident Progression Event Trees (APETs) are performed in a manner that is computationally time consuming, difficult to reproduce and also can be phenomenologically inconsistent. One of the principal deficiencies lies in the static nature of conventional APETs. In the conventional event tree techniques, the sequence of events is pre-determined in a fixed order based on the expert judgments. The main objective of this PhD dissertation was to develop a software tool (ADAPT) for automated APET generation using the concept of dynamic event trees. As implied by the name, in dynamic event trees the order and timing of events are determined by the progression of the accident. The tool determines the branching times from a severe accident analysis code based on user specified criteria for branching. It assigns user specified probabilities to every branch, tracks the total branch probability, and truncates branches based on the given pruning/truncation rules to avoid an unmanageable number of scenarios. The function of a dynamic APET developed includes prediction of the conditions, timing, and location of containment failure or bypass leading to the release of radioactive material, and calculation of probabilities of those failures. Thus, scenarios that can potentially lead to early containment failure or bypass, such as through accident induced failure of steam generator tubes, are of particular interest. Also, the work is focused on treatment of uncertainties in severe accident phenomena such as creep rupture of major RCS components, hydrogen burn, containment failure, timing of power recovery, etc. Although the ADAPT methodology (Analysis of Dynamic Accident Progression Trees) could be applied to any severe accident analysis code, in this dissertation the approach is demonstrated by applying it to the MELCOR code [1]. A case study is presented involving station blackout with the loss of auxiliary feedwater system for a

  2. The Chernobyl Catastrophe. Consequences on Human Health

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yablokov, A.; Labunska, I.; Blokov, I. (eds.)

    2006-04-15

    Twenty years after the Chernobyl disaster, the need for continued study of its far-reaching consequences remains as great as ever. Several million people (by various estimates, from 5 to 8 million) still reside in areas that will remain highly contaminated by Chernobyl's radioactive pollution for many years to come. Since the half-life of the major (though far from the only) radioactive element released, caesium-137 (137Cs), is a little over 30 years, the radiological (and hence health) consequences of this nuclear accident will continue to be experienced for centuries to come. This event had its greatest impacts on three neighbouring former Soviet republics: Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia. The impacts, however, extended far more widely. More than half of the caesium-137 emitted as a result of the explosion was carried in the atmosphere to other European countries. At least fourteen other countries in Europe (Austria, Sweden, Finland, Norway, Slovenia, Poland, Romania, Hungary, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Italy, Bulgaria, Republic of Moldova and Greece) were contaminated by radiation levels above the 1 Ci/km{sup 2} (or 37 kBq/m{sup 2}), limit used to define areas as 'contaminated'. Lower, but nonetheless substantial quantities of radioactivity linked to the Chernobyl accident were detected all over the European continent, from Scandinavia to the Mediterranean, and in Asia. Despite the documented geographical extent and seriousness of the contamination caused by the accident, the totality of impacts on ecosystems, human health, economic performance and social structures remains unknown. In all cases, however, such impacts are likely to be extensive and long lasting. Drawing together contributions from numerous research scientists and health professionals, including many from the Ukraine, Belarus and the Russian Federation, this report addresses one of these aspects, namely the nature and scope of the long-term consequences for human health. The range

  3. Self-reported accidents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Katrine Meltofte; Andersen, Camilla Sloth

    2016-01-01

    The main idea behind the self-reporting of accidents is to ask people about their traffic accidents and gain knowledge on these accidents without relying on the official records kept by police and/or hospitals.......The main idea behind the self-reporting of accidents is to ask people about their traffic accidents and gain knowledge on these accidents without relying on the official records kept by police and/or hospitals....

  4. Key Characteristics of Combined Accident including TLOFW accident for PSA Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Bo Gyung; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Yoon, Ho Joon [Khalifa University of Science, Technology and Research, Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates)

    2015-05-15

    The conventional PSA techniques cannot adequately evaluate all events. The conventional PSA models usually focus on single internal events such as DBAs, the external hazards such as fire, seismic. However, the Fukushima accident of Japan in 2011 reveals that very rare event is necessary to be considered in the PSA model to prevent the radioactive release to environment caused by poor treatment based on lack of the information, and to improve the emergency operation procedure. Especially, the results from PSA can be used to decision making for regulators. Moreover, designers can consider the weakness of plant safety based on the quantified results and understand accident sequence based on human actions and system availability. This study is for PSA modeling of combined accidents including total loss of feedwater (TLOFW) accident. The TLOFW accident is a representative accident involving the failure of cooling through secondary side. If the amount of heat transfer is not enough due to the failure of secondary side, the heat will be accumulated to the primary side by continuous core decay heat. Transients with loss of feedwater include total loss of feedwater accident, loss of condenser vacuum accident, and closure of all MSIVs. When residual heat removal by the secondary side is terminated, the safety injection into the RCS with direct primary depressurization would provide alternative heat removal. This operation is called feed and bleed (F and B) operation. Combined accidents including TLOFW accident are very rare event and partially considered in conventional PSA model. Since the necessity of F and B operation is related to plant conditions, the PSA modeling for combined accidents including TLOFW accident is necessary to identify the design and operational vulnerabilities.The PSA is significant to assess the risk of NPPs, and to identify the design and operational vulnerabilities. Even though the combined accident is very rare event, the consequence of combined

  5. The accident simulation and consequence analysis of the hydrogen refueling station leakage%加氢站氢气泄漏事故模拟及后果分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨灿剑; 付晋

    2011-01-01

    Aim at the safety of hydrogen refueling station, the theoretical model analysis and numerical simulation was carried out to simulate the accident and consequence. The concentration contours were obtained by the in house MATLAB gauss diffusion code. The influence on hydrogen diffusion of wind speed in the surroundings was analyzed. That is, the hazardous area decreased when the wind speed up. The CFD code Fluent was adopted to build a 2D full-scale hydrogen leakage in the hydrogen refueling station. The results showed that, under calm condition, the horizontal and vertical hydrogen diffusions are very fast and tend to accumulate forming explosive gas cloud. But under 10 m/s wind, the escaping gas is driven, blown away and diluted and it is hard to gather. The blast area is limited next to the leaking source. The wind is not benefit to the hydrogen diffusion but is good for safety.%针对加氢站安全,通过理论模型分析和数值模拟两种方法,对其开展事故模拟和后果分析.利用自行编制的MATLAB高斯扩散程序得到爆炸危险区域的浓度曲线,分析环境风速对氢气扩散的影响,即风速越大,危险区域越向泄漏口收缩;利用CFD软件Fluent建立加氢站氢气泄漏全场景二维模型,模拟结果表明,无风情况下,氢气水平和垂直扩散速度很快,容易富集并形成爆炸气团,而在风速10 m/s情况下,泄漏氮气被带动、吹散和稀释,难以富集,爆炸区域仅限于泄漏点附近.环境风不利于氢气稳定扩散,对安全有利.

  6. Exploring Environmental Effects of Accidents During Marine Transport of Dangerous Goods by Use of Accident Descriptions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rømer, Hans Gottberg; Haastrup, P.; Petersen, H J Styhr

    1996-01-01

    On the basis of 1776 descriptions of water transport accidents involving dangerous goods, environmental problems in connection with releases of this kind are described and discussed. It was found that most detailed descriptions of environmental consequences concerned oil accidents, although most...

  7. Road characteristics and bicycle accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyberg, P; Björnstig, U; Bygren, L O

    1996-12-01

    In Umeå, Sweden, defects in the physical road surface contributed to nearly half of the single bicycle accidents. The total social cost of these injuries to people amount to at least SEK 20 million (SEK 60,000 or about USD 8,500 per accident), which corresponds to the estimated loss of "eight life equivalents a year". Improved winter maintenance seems to have the greatest injury prevention potential and would probably reduce the number of injuries considerably, whereas improved road quality and modification of kerbs would reduce the most severe injuries. A local traffic safety program should try to prevent road accidents instead of handling the consequences of them. In accordance with Parliament decisions on traffic we would like to see increased investment in measures favoring bicycle traffic, where cycling is seen as a solution, not as a problem.

  8. Fuzzy Uncertainty Evaluation for Fault Tree Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Ki Beom; Shim, Hyung Jin [Seoul National University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Jae, Moo Sung [Hanyang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    This traditional probabilistic approach can calculate relatively accurate results. However it requires a long time because of repetitive computation due to the MC method. In addition, when informative data for statistical analysis are not sufficient or some events are mainly caused by human error, the probabilistic approach may not be possible because uncertainties of these events are difficult to be expressed by probabilistic distributions. In order to reduce the computation time and quantify uncertainties of top events when basic events whose uncertainties are difficult to be expressed by probabilistic distributions exist, the fuzzy uncertainty propagation based on fuzzy set theory can be applied. In this paper, we develop a fuzzy uncertainty propagation code and apply the fault tree of the core damage accident after the large loss of coolant accident (LLOCA). The fuzzy uncertainty propagation code is implemented and tested for the fault tree of the radiation release accident. We apply this code to the fault tree of the core damage accident after the LLOCA in three cases and compare the results with those computed by the probabilistic uncertainty propagation using the MC method. The results obtained by the fuzzy uncertainty propagation can be calculated in relatively short time, covering the results obtained by the probabilistic uncertainty propagation.

  9. Learning lessons from Natech accidents - the eNATECH accident database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krausmann, Elisabeth; Girgin, Serkan

    2016-04-01

    When natural hazards impact industrial facilities that house or process hazardous materials, fires, explosions and toxic releases can occur. This type of accident is commonly referred to as Natech accident. In order to prevent the recurrence of accidents or to better mitigate their consequences, lessons-learned type studies using available accident data are usually carried out. Through post-accident analysis, conclusions can be drawn on the most common damage and failure modes and hazmat release paths, particularly vulnerable storage and process equipment, and the hazardous materials most commonly involved in these types of accidents. These analyses also lend themselves to identifying technical and organisational risk-reduction measures that require improvement or are missing. Industrial accident databases are commonly used for retrieving sets of Natech accident case histories for further analysis. These databases contain accident data from the open literature, government authorities or in-company sources. The quality of reported information is not uniform and exhibits different levels of detail and accuracy. This is due to the difficulty of finding qualified information sources, especially in situations where accident reporting by the industry or by authorities is not compulsory, e.g. when spill quantities are below the reporting threshold. Data collection has then to rely on voluntary record keeping often by non-experts. The level of detail is particularly non-uniform for Natech accident data depending on whether the consequences of the Natech event were major or minor, and whether comprehensive information was available for reporting. In addition to the reporting bias towards high-consequence events, industrial accident databases frequently lack information on the severity of the triggering natural hazard, as well as on failure modes that led to the hazmat release. This makes it difficult to reconstruct the dynamics of the accident and renders the development of

  10. Accident history, risk perception and traffic safe behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngueutsa, Robert; Kouabenan, Dongo Rémi

    2017-09-01

    This study clarifies the associations between accident history, perception of the riskiness of road travel and traffic safety behaviours by taking into account the number and severity of accidents experienced. A sample of 525 road users in Cameroon answered a questionnaire comprising items on perception of risk, safe behaviour and personal accident history. Participants who reported involvement in more than three accidents or involvement in a severe accident perceived road travel as less risky and also reported behaving less safely compared with those involved in fewer, or less severe accidents. The results have practical implications for the prevention of traffic accidents. Practitioner Summary: The associations between accident history, perceived risk of road travel and safe behaviour were investigated using self-report questionnaire data. Participants involved in more than three accidents, or in severe accidents, perceived road travel as less risky and also reported more unsafe behaviour compared with those involved in fewer, or less severe accidents. Campaigns targeting people with a less serious, less extensive accident history should aim to increase awareness of hazards and the potential severity of their consequences, as well as emphasising how easy it is to take the recommended preventive actions. Campaigns targeting those involved in more frequent accidents, and survivors of serious accidents, should address feelings of invulnerability and helplessness.

  11. Resolve! Version 2.5: Flammable Gas Accident Analysis Tool Acceptance Test Plan and Test Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    LAVENDER, J.C.

    2000-10-17

    RESOLVE! Version 2 .5 is designed to quantify the risk and uncertainty of combustion accidents in double-shell tanks (DSTs) and single-shell tanks (SSTs). The purpose of the acceptance testing is to ensure that all of the options and features of the computer code run; to verify that the calculated results are consistent with each other; and to evaluate the effects of the changes to the parameter values on the frequency and consequence trends associated with flammable gas deflagrations or detonations.

  12. Effect of Check Valve on Consequences of Coolant Pump Rotor Seizure Accident for EPR Reactor%止回阀对EPR反应堆主泵卡轴事故后果的影响

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈秋炀; 周拥辉

    2012-01-01

    分析计算欧洲先进压水堆(EPR)反应堆主泵卡轴事故,并对比在主泵出口安装止回阀和没有安装止回阀模型的卡轴事故安全分析.结果表明,在EPR主泵卡轴事故中,止回阀可增加模型堆芯进口流量约4%,有利于堆芯的冷却.止回阀可显著地提高堆芯最小偏离泡核沸腾比(DNBR),降低堆芯偏离泡核沸腾(DNB)份额,降低包壳温度约14℃.模型分析结果表明,在主泵卡轴事故工况下,主泵出口安装止回阀可更好地维持堆芯的完整性.%Counter current flow phenomenon would appear during reactor coolant pump rotor seizure accident. Present work analyzes the coolant pump rotor seizure accident for European Pressurized Reactor (EPR). The accident safety analysis results of model with check valve and without check valve are compared. It can be found that the check valve can increase the core inlet flow rate of model about 4%. The increasing of coolant flow rate is beneficial to the reactor core cooling. Check valve can increase the minimum departure from nucleate boiling ratio (DNBR), reduce the departure from nucleate boiling (DNB) fraction and the fuel rod cladding temperature about 14℃ during coolant pump rotor seizure accident. The analyses results show that the model with check valve can maintain the integrity of nuclear fuel rod effectively during reactor coolant pump rotor seizure accident.

  13. Comparative Assessment of Severe Accidents in the Chinese Energy Sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hirschberg, S.; Burgherr, P.; Spiekerman, G.; Cazzoli, E.; Vitazek, J.; Cheng, L

    2003-03-01

    This report deals with the comparative assessment of accidents risks characteristic for the various electricity supply options. A reasonably complete picture of the wide spectrum of health, environmental and economic effects associated with various energy systems can only be obtained by considering damages due to normal operation as well as due to accidents. The focus of the present work is on severe accidents, as these are considered controversial. By severe accidents we understand potential or actual accidents that represent a significant risk to people, property and the environment and may lead to large consequences. (author)

  14. Consequences of radioactive releases into the sea resulting from the accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant - Evolution of expert investigation according to the data available

    OpenAIRE

    2012-01-01

    The accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) in March 2011 led to an unprecedented direct input of artificial radioactivity into the marine environment. The Institute for Radioprotection and Nuclear Safety was requested by the French authorities to investigate the radioecological impact of this input, in particular the potential contamination of products of marine origin used for human consumption. This article describes the close link between the responses provided and ...

  15. Calculation reliability in vehicle accident reconstruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wach, Wojciech

    2016-06-01

    The reconstruction of vehicle accidents is subject to assessment in terms of the reliability of a specific system of engineering and technical operations. In the article [26] a formalized concept of the reliability of vehicle accident reconstruction, defined using Bayesian networks, was proposed. The current article is focused on the calculation reliability since that is the most objective section of this model. It is shown that calculation reliability in accident reconstruction is not another form of calculation uncertainty. The calculation reliability is made dependent on modeling reliability, adequacy of the model and relative uncertainty of calculation. All the terms are defined. An example is presented concerning the analytical determination of the collision location of two vehicles on the road in the absence of evidential traces. It has been proved that the reliability of this kind of calculations generally does not exceed 0.65, despite the fact that the calculation uncertainty itself can reach only 0.05. In this example special attention is paid to the analysis of modeling reliability and calculation uncertainty using sensitivity coefficients and weighted relative uncertainty.

  16. Measurement uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartley, David; Lidén, Göran

    2008-08-01

    The reporting of measurement uncertainty has recently undergone a major harmonization whereby characteristics of a measurement method obtained during establishment and application are combined componentwise. For example, the sometimes-pesky systematic error is included. A bias component of uncertainty can be often easily established as the uncertainty in the bias. However, beyond simply arriving at a value for uncertainty, meaning to this uncertainty if needed can sometimes be developed in terms of prediction confidence in uncertainty-based intervals covering what is to be measured. To this end, a link between concepts of accuracy and uncertainty is established through a simple yet accurate approximation to a random variable known as the non-central Student's t-distribution. Without a measureless and perpetual uncertainty, the drama of human life would be destroyed. Winston Churchill.

  17. Uncertainty Assessment on Failure Accident of Voltage-Sensitive Equipment Due to Voltage Sag by Maximum Hybrid Entropy%敏感设备电压暂降失效事件不确定性的最大混合熵评估

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    汪颖; 肖先勇; 杨达

    2012-01-01

    敏感设备电压暂降失效事件是混合不确定事件,对其评估需考虑混合不确定性.以混合熵作为评价测度,建立敏感设备电压暂降失效事件不确定性的最大混合熵评估模型,并用以逆积法为基础的多阶段改进近似规划法进行模型求解.在评估过程中,将混合不确定性分解为随机性、模糊性和两者的交叉不确定性,并用随机商、模糊熵和交叉熵进行量化.以计算机(personal computer,PC)为例,考虑到PC机在电压暂降发生前可能处于全速、空载和正常等运行状态,电压暂降发生后可能出现完全死机、运算出错和“假死”等不同严重程度的失效状态,对实测样本进行评估,并与概率法、模糊法比较,结果证明,该方法所得结果客观、可行,克服了现有方法过估计或欠估计等不足,结果更符合实际.%The failure accident of voltage-sensitive equipments due to voltage sag is a hybrid uncertainty accident. Taking hybrid entropy as assessment measure a maximum hybrid entropy-based uncertainty assessment model for failure accident of voltage-sensitive equipments due to voltage sag is established and solved by multi-stage improved approximate programming. During the assessment the hybrid uncertainty is decomposed to stochastic uncertainty, fuzzy uncertainty and the crossed certainty of the both, and these uncertainties are quantized by stochastic entropy, fuzzy entropy and crossed entropy. Taking personal computer (PC) as the case and considering possible operation conditions of PC before the occurrence of voltage sag, namely full speed running, no-load and normal operation, after the occurrence of voltage sag following failure states in different severities such as PC system halt, calculation error and false system halt may occur. The measured samples are assessed and the assessment results are compared with those assessed by probabilistic assessment and fuzzy assessment. Comparison results show that

  18. Analysis of Maximum Reasonably Foreseeable Accidents for the Yucca Mountain Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    S.B. Ross; R.E. Best; S.J. Maheras; T.I. McSweeney

    2001-08-17

    Accidents could occur during the transportation of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. This paper describes the risks and consequences to the public from accidents that are highly unlikely but that could have severe consequences. The impact of these accidents would include those to a collective population and to hypothetical maximally exposed individuals (MEIs). This document discusses accidents with conditions that have a chance of occurring more often than 1 in 10 million times in a year, called ''maximum reasonably foreseeable accidents''. Accidents and conditions less likely than this are not considered to be reasonably foreseeable.

  19. Introduction of the Amendment of IAEA Safety Requirements Reflected Lessons Learned from Fukushima Nuclear Accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahn, Sang-Kyu; Ahn, Hyung-Joon; Kim, Sun-Hae; Cheong, Jae-Hak [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    for the design basis for the installation and their associated uncertainties; consideration of hazards due to surface faulting and flooding; monitoring of hazards and periodic review of site specific hazards; strengthening the prevention of unacceptable radiological consequences to the public and the environment; preventing severe accident through strengthening the plant design basis, including strengthening the independence of level four of defense in- depth, consideration of external hazards and sufficient margins; periodic safety review; emergency preparedness; feedback of operating experience. The following examples of the IAEA requirements to mitigate the consequences of DECs are: role of the government and the regulatory body for emergency preparedness and response, strengthening severe accident mitigation measures; well defined and updated accident management program.

  20. Explosion risks and consequences for tunnels

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weerheijm, J.; Berg, A.C. van den

    2014-01-01

    Tunnel accidents with transports of dangerous goods may lead to explosions. Risk assessment for these accidents is complicated because of the low probability and the unknown, but disastrous effects expected. Especially the lack of knowledge on the strength of the explosion and the consequences for t

  1. Understanding uncertainty

    CERN Document Server

    Lindley, Dennis V

    2013-01-01

    Praise for the First Edition ""...a reference for everyone who is interested in knowing and handling uncertainty.""-Journal of Applied Statistics The critically acclaimed First Edition of Understanding Uncertainty provided a study of uncertainty addressed to scholars in all fields, showing that uncertainty could be measured by probability, and that probability obeyed three basic rules that enabled uncertainty to be handled sensibly in everyday life. These ideas were extended to embrace the scientific method and to show how decisions, containing an uncertain element, could be rationally made.

  2. The Uncertainty Test for the MAAP Computer Code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, S. H.; Song, Y. M.; Park, S. Y.; Ahn, K. I.; Kim, K. R.; Lee, Y. J. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2008-10-15

    After the Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) and Chernobyl accidents, safety issues for a severe accident are treated in various aspects. Major issues in our research part include a level 2 PSA. The difficulty in expanding the level 2 PSA as a risk information activity is the uncertainty. In former days, it attached a weight to improve the quality in a internal accident PSA, but the effort is insufficient for decrease the phenomenon uncertainty in the level 2 PSA. In our country, the uncertainty degree is high in the case of a level 2 PSA model, and it is necessary to secure a model to decrease the uncertainty. We have not yet experienced the uncertainty assessment technology, the assessment system itself depends on advanced nations. In advanced nations, the severe accident simulator is implemented in the hardware level. But in our case, basic function in a software level can be implemented. In these circumstance at home and abroad, similar instances are surveyed such as UQM and MELCOR. Referred to these instances, SAUNA (Severe Accident UNcertainty Analysis) system is being developed in our project to assess and decrease the uncertainty in a level 2 PSA. It selects the MAAP code to analyze the uncertainty in a severe accident.

  3. Modeling secondary accidents identified by traffic shock waves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junhua, Wang; Boya, Liu; Lanfang, Zhang; Ragland, David R

    2016-02-01

    The high potential for occurrence and the negative consequences of secondary accidents make them an issue of great concern affecting freeway safety. Using accident records from a three-year period together with California interstate freeway loop data, a dynamic method for more accurate classification based on the traffic shock wave detecting method was used to identify secondary accidents. Spatio-temporal gaps between the primary and secondary accident were proven be fit via a mixture of Weibull and normal distribution. A logistic regression model was developed to investigate major factors contributing to secondary accident occurrence. Traffic shock wave speed and volume at the occurrence of a primary accident were explicitly considered in the model, as a secondary accident is defined as an accident that occurs within the spatio-temporal impact scope of the primary accident. Results show that the shock waves originating in the wake of a primary accident have a more significant impact on the likelihood of a secondary accident occurrence than the effects of traffic volume. Primary accidents with long durations can significantly increase the possibility of secondary accidents. Unsafe speed and weather are other factors contributing to secondary crash occurrence. It is strongly suggested that when police or rescue personnel arrive at the scene of an accident, they should not suddenly block, decrease, or unblock the traffic flow, but instead endeavor to control traffic in a smooth and controlled manner. Also it is important to reduce accident processing time to reduce the risk of secondary accident. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. The consequences of the Chernobyl accident in the Ukraine and problems with the sarcophagus; Die Folgen der Katastrophe von Tschernobyl in der Ukraine und die Probleme mit dem Sarkophag

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kopchinsky, G.A. [Atomaudit, Kiew (Ukraine)

    1996-07-01

    The reactor accident in the Ukraine contaminated part of the territory with iodine 131, caesium 137, strontium 90, and plutonium 239 and 240. The zone surrounding the site of the accident was declared restricted area; more than 90 000 persons were evacuated. The paper reports on current conditions in the restricted area and prospects for this area as well as on the current state of, and problems with, the sarcophagus. The conversion of the sarcophagus into an ecologically safe system and the economic situation of the Ukraine pose great problems. (DG) [Deutsch] Durch den Reaktorunfall in der Ukraine ist ein Teil des Territoriums mit Jod 131, Caesium 137, Strontium 90, Plutonium 239 und -240 kontaminiert worden. Um den Unfallort wurde eine Isolierungszone geschaffen und mehr als 90.000 Menschen evakuiert. Ueber den Zustand und die Perspektiven der Isolierungszone sowie ueber den Zustand und die Probleme des Sarkophags wird berichtet. Die Umgestaltung des Sarkophags in ein oekologisch sicheres System und die wirtschaftliche Situation der Ukraine bereiten grosse Probleme. (DG)

  5. Severe accident risks from external events

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Randall O Gauntt

    2013-01-01

    This paper reviews the early development of design requirements for seismic events in USA early developing nuclear electric generating fleet.Notable safety studies,including WASH-1400,Sandia Siting Study and the NUREG-1150 probabilistic risk study,are briefly reviewed in terms of their relevance to extreme accidents arising from seismic and other severe accident initiators.Specific characteristic about the nature of severe accidents in nuclear power plant (NPP) are reviewed along with present day state-of-art analysis methodologies (methods for estimation of leakages and consequences of releases (MELCOR) and MELCOR accident consequence code system (MACCS)) that are used to evaluate severe accidents and to optimize mitigative and protective actions against such accidents.It is the aim of this paper to make nuclear operating nations aware of the risks that accompany a much needed energy resource and to identify some of the tools,techniques and landmark safety studies that serve to make the technology safer and to maintain vigilance and adequate safety culture for the responsible management of this valuable but unforgiving technology.

  6. Managing risk and uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Coulson-Thomas, Colin

    2015-01-01

    Examines risk management and contemporary issues concerning risk governance from a board perspective, including risk tolerance, innovation, insurance, balancing risks and other factors, risk and strategies of diversification or focus, increasing flexibility to cope with uncertainty, periodic planning versus intelligent steering, and limiting downside risks and adverse consequences.

  7. Reactor safety study. An assessment of accident risks in U. S. commercial nuclear power plants. Appendix XI. Analysis of comments on the draft WASH-1400 report. [PWR and BWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1975-10-01

    Information is presented concerning comments on reactor safety by governmental agencies and civilian organizations; reactor safety study methodology; consequence model; probability of accident sequences; and various accident conditions.

  8. Analysis of Waste Leak and Toxic Chemical Release Accidents from Waste Feed Delivery (WFD) Diluent System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    WILLIAMS, J.C.

    2000-09-15

    Radiological and toxicological consequences are calculated for 4 postulated accidents involving the Waste Feed Delivery (WFD) diluent addition systems. Consequences for the onsite and offsite receptor are calculated. This analysis contains technical information used to determine the accident consequences for the River Protection Project (RPP) Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR).

  9. Accident progression event tree analysis for postulated severe accidents at N Reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wyss, G.D.; Camp, A.L.; Miller, L.A.; Dingman, S.E.; Kunsman, D.M. (Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (USA)); Medford, G.T. (Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (USA))

    1990-06-01

    A Level II/III probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has been performed for N Reactor, a Department of Energy (DOE) production reactor located on the Hanford reservation in Washington. The accident progression analysis documented in this report determines how core damage accidents identified in the Level I PRA progress from fuel damage to confinement response and potential releases the environment. The objectives of the study are to generate accident progression data for the Level II/III PRA source term model and to identify changes that could improve plant response under accident conditions. The scope of the analysis is comprehensive, excluding only sabotage and operator errors of commission. State-of-the-art methodology is employed based largely on the methods developed by Sandia for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission in support of the NUREG-1150 study. The accident progression model allows complex interactions and dependencies between systems to be explicitly considered. Latin Hypecube sampling was used to assess the phenomenological and systemic uncertainties associated with the primary and confinement system responses to the core damage accident. The results of the analysis show that the N Reactor confinement concept provides significant radiological protection for most of the accident progression pathways studied.

  10. Visualization of Traffic Accidents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jie; Shen, Yuzhong; Khattak, Asad

    2010-01-01

    Traffic accidents have tremendous impact on society. Annually approximately 6.4 million vehicle accidents are reported by police in the US and nearly half of them result in catastrophic injuries. Visualizations of traffic accidents using geographic information systems (GIS) greatly facilitate handling and analysis of traffic accidents in many aspects. Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI), Inc. is the world leader in GIS research and development. ArcGIS, a software package developed by ESRI, has the capabilities to display events associated with a road network, such as accident locations, and pavement quality. But when event locations related to a road network are processed, the existing algorithm used by ArcGIS does not utilize all the information related to the routes of the road network and produces erroneous visualization results of event locations. This software bug causes serious problems for applications in which accurate location information is critical for emergency responses, such as traffic accidents. This paper aims to address this problem and proposes an improved method that utilizes all relevant information of traffic accidents, namely, route number, direction, and mile post, and extracts correct event locations for accurate traffic accident visualization and analysis. The proposed method generates a new shape file for traffic accidents and displays them on top of the existing road network in ArcGIS. Visualization of traffic accidents along Hampton Roads Bridge Tunnel is included to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  11. The study of core melting phenomena in reactor severe accident of PWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Jae Hong; Jeun, Gyoo Dong; Park, Seh In; Lim, Jae Hyuck; Park, Seong Yong [Hanyang Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Bang, Kwang Hyun; Kim, Ki Yong [Korea Maritime Univ., Busan (Korea, Republic of)

    1999-03-15

    After TMI-2 accident, it has been paid much attention to severe accidents beyond the design basis accidents and the research on the progress of severe accidents and mitigation and the closure of severe accidents has been actively performed. In particular, a great deal of uncertainties yet exist in the phase of late core melt progression and thus the research on this phase of severe accident progress has a key role in obtaining confidence in severe accident mitigation and nuclear reactor safety. In the present study, physics of late core melt progression, experimental data and the major phenomenological models of computer codes are reviewed and a direction of reducing the uncertainties in the late core melt progression is proposed.

  12. The study of core melting phenomena in reactor severe accident of PWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Jae Hong; Jeun, Gyoo Dong; Park, Seh In; Lim, Jae Hyuck; Park, Seong Yong [Hanyang Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Bang, Kwang Hyun; Kim, Ki Yong [Korea Maritime Univ., Busan (Korea, Republic of)

    1999-03-15

    After TMI-2 accident, it has been paid much attention to severe accidents beyond the design basis accidents and the research on the progress of severe accidents and mitigation and the closure of severe accidents has been actively performed. In particular, a great deal of uncertainties yet exist in the phase of late core melt progression and thus the research on this phase of severe accident progress has a key role in obtaining confidence in severe accident mitigation and nuclear reactor safety. In the present study, physics of late core melt progression, experimental data and the major phenomenological models of computer codes are reviewed and a direction of reducing the uncertainties in the late core melt progression is proposed.

  13. A study on the late core melt progression in pressurized water reactor severe accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Jae Hong; Jeun Gyoo Dong; Bang, Kwang Hyun; Park, Seh In; Lim, Jae Hyuck; Park, Seong Yong [Hanyang Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Back, Hyung Hmm [Korea Maritime Univ., Busan (Korea, Republic of)

    1998-03-15

    After TMI-2 accidents, it has been paid much attention to severe accidents beyond the design basis accidents and the research on the progress of severe accidents and mitigation and the closure of severe accidents has been actively performed. In particular, a great deal of uncertainties yet exist in the phase of late core melt progression and thus the research on this phase of severe accident progress has a key role in obtaining in severe accident mitigation and nuclear reactor safety. In the present study, physics of late core melt progression, experimental data and the major phenomenological models of computer codes are reviewed and a direction of reducing the uncertainties in the late core melt progression os proposed.

  14. Laser accidents: Being Prepared

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barat, K

    2003-01-24

    The goal of the Laser Safety Officer and any laser safety program is to prevent a laser accident from occurring, in particular an injury to a person's eyes. Most laser safety courses talk about laser accidents, causes, and types of injury. The purpose of this presentation is to present a plan for safety offices and users to follow in case of accident or injury from laser radiation.

  15. [Accidents with the "paraglider"].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, T H; Dengg, C; Gabl, M

    1988-09-01

    With a collective of 46 patients we show the details and kinds of accidents caused by paragliding. The base for the casuistry of the accidents was a questionnaire which was answered by most of the injured persons. These were questions about the theoretical and practical training, the course of the flight during the different phases, and the subjective point of view of the course of the accident. The patterns of the injuries showed a high incidence of injuries of the spinal column and high risks for the ankles. At the end, we give some advice how to prevent these accidents.

  16. Accidents (FARS) (National)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Transportation — Accident - (1975-current): This data file (NTAD) contains information about crash characteristics and environmental conditions at the time of the crash. There is one...

  17. INTERCOMPARISON OF RESULTS FOR A PWR ROD EJECTION ACCIDENT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DIAMOND,D.J.; ARONSON,A.; JO,J.; AVVAKUMOV,A.; MALOFEEV,V.; SIDOROV,V.; FERRARESI,P.; GOUIN,C.; ANIEL,S.; ROYER,M.E.

    1999-10-01

    This study is part of an overall program to understand the uncertainty in best-estimate calculations of the local fuel enthalpy during the rod ejection accident. Local fuel enthalpy is used as the acceptance criterion for this design-basis event and can also be used to estimate fuel damage for the purpose of determining radiological consequences. The study used results from neutron kinetics models in PARCS, BARS, and CRONOS2, codes developed in the US, the Russian Federation, and France, respectively. Since BARS uses a heterogeneous representation of the fuel assembly as opposed to the homogeneous representations in PARCS and CRONOS, the effect of the intercomparison was primarily to compare different intra-assembly models. Quantitative comparisons for core power, reactivity, assembly fuel enthalpy and pin power were carried out. In general the agreement between methods was very good providing additional confidence in the codes and providing a starting point for a quantitative assessment of the uncertainty in calculated fuel enthalpy using best-estimate methods.

  18. K West Basin Integrated Water Treatment System (IWTS) E-F Annular Filter Vessel Accident Calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    PIEPHO, M.G.

    2000-01-10

    Four bounding accidents postulated for the K West Basin integrated water treatment system are evaluated against applicable risk evaluation guidelines. The accidents are a spray leak during fuel retrieval, spray leak during backflushing a hydrogen explosion, and a fire breaching filter vessel and enclosure. Event trees and accident probabilities are estimated. In all cases, the unmitigated dose consequences are below the risk evaluation guidelines.

  19. K West Basin Integrated Water Treatment System (IWTS) E-F Annular Filter Vessel Accident Calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    RITTMANN, P.D.

    1999-10-07

    Three bounding accidents postdated for the K West Basin integrated water treatment system are evaluated against applicable risk evaluation guidelines. The accidents are a spray leak during fuel retrieval, spray leak during backflushing, and a hydrogen explosion. Event trees and accident probabilities are estimated. In all cases, the unmitigated dose consequences are below the risk evaluation guidelines.

  20. Spatio-temporal patterns of hazards and their use in risk assessment and mitigation. Case study of road accidents in Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catalin Stanga, Iulian

    2013-04-01

    the spatial or temporal clustering of crash accidents. Since the 1990's, Geographical Informational Systems (GIS) became a very important tool for traffic and road safety management, allowing not only the spatial and multifactorial analysis, but also graphical and non-graphical outputs. The current paper presents an accessible GIS methodology to study the spatio-temporal pattern of injury related road accidents, to identify the high density accidents zones, to make a cluster analysis, to create multicriterial typologies, to identify spatial and temporal similarities and to explain them. In this purpose, a Geographical Information System was created, allowing a complex analysis that involves not only the events, but also a large set of interrelated and spatially linked attributes. The GIS includes the accidents as georeferenced point elements with a spatially linked attribute database: identification information (date, location details); accident type; main, secondary and aggravating causes; data about driver; vehicle information; consequences (damages, injured peoples and fatalities). Each attribute has its own number code that allows both the statistical analysis and the spatial interrogation. The database includes those road accidents that led to physical injuries and loss of human lives between 2007 and 2012 and the spatial analysis was realized using TNTmips 7.3 software facilities. Data aggregation and processing allowed creating the spatial pattern of injury related road accidents through Kernel density estimation at three different levels (national - Romania; county level - Iasi County; local level - Iasi town). Spider graphs were used to create the temporal pattern or road accidents at three levels (daily, weekly and monthly) directly related to their causes. Moreover the spatial and temporal database relates the natural hazards (glazed frost, fog, and blizzard) with the human made ones, giving the opportunity to evaluate the nature of uncertainties in risk

  1. Applicability of simplified human reliability analysis methods for severe accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boring, R.; St Germain, S. [Idaho National Lab., Idaho Falls, Idaho (United States); Banaseanu, G.; Chatri, H.; Akl, Y. [Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission, Ottawa, Ontario (Canada)

    2016-03-15

    Most contemporary human reliability analysis (HRA) methods were created to analyse design-basis accidents at nuclear power plants. As part of a comprehensive expansion of risk assessments at many plants internationally, HRAs will begin considering severe accident scenarios. Severe accidents, while extremely rare, constitute high consequence events that significantly challenge successful operations and recovery. Challenges during severe accidents include degraded and hazardous operating conditions at the plant, the shift in control from the main control room to the technical support center, the unavailability of plant instrumentation, and the need to use different types of operating procedures. Such shifts in operations may also test key assumptions in existing HRA methods. This paper discusses key differences between design basis and severe accidents, reviews efforts to date to create customized HRA methods suitable for severe accidents, and recommends practices for adapting existing HRA methods that are already being used for HRAs at the plants. (author)

  2. Uncertainty theory

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Baoding

    2015-01-01

    When no samples are available to estimate a probability distribution, we have to invite some domain experts to evaluate the belief degree that each event will happen. Perhaps some people think that the belief degree should be modeled by subjective probability or fuzzy set theory. However, it is usually inappropriate because both of them may lead to counterintuitive results in this case. In order to rationally deal with belief degrees, uncertainty theory was founded in 2007 and subsequently studied by many researchers. Nowadays, uncertainty theory has become a branch of axiomatic mathematics for modeling belief degrees. This is an introductory textbook on uncertainty theory, uncertain programming, uncertain statistics, uncertain risk analysis, uncertain reliability analysis, uncertain set, uncertain logic, uncertain inference, uncertain process, uncertain calculus, and uncertain differential equation. This textbook also shows applications of uncertainty theory to scheduling, logistics, networks, data mining, c...

  3. Radiological Consequence Analysis of Annulus Ventilation System with Delayed Operation under Severe Accident of Nuclear Power Plants%核电厂严重事故下双层安全壳环形空间通风系统延迟投运的放射性后果影响分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴楠; 黄树明; 刘新建

    2016-01-01

    During severe accidents, forthenuclear power plants ( NPPs) with double⁃containment design, ifa sub⁃atmospheric pressure cannot be built or the accident filter cannot be activated when annulus ventila⁃tion system is failed to operate normally, the control function of fission⁃product releaseof dual containment would be weakened�With focus on the double⁃containment design adopted by most of the Gen-ⅢNPPs in the world, this paper firstly calculates the release amountof radioactive materialsinto environment under different delay scenarios of annulus ventilation systemoperation, with the consideration of the intact con⁃tainment and using NUREG-1465 source term� Then the Criteria for Limited Impact ( CLI) provided in European Utility Requirements ( EUR) areare applied to evaluateradiological consequence of severe acci⁃dent, and the relationship between the delay of annulus ventilation systemoperation and “large release” is analyzed� The results could beareference for the emergency response actions and radiological consequence estimation in the context of severe accidents.%核电厂严重事故工况下,对于具有双层安全壳设计的核电机组,若环形空间通风系统不能正常运转,无法形成负压或无法启动事故过滤器,双层安全壳对放射性物质释放的控制效果将被削弱。鉴于此,本文针对目前国际上多个第三代核电机组采用的双层安全壳设计,考虑安全壳完整并选用NUREG-1465源项作为严重事故源项,计算环形空间通风系统在不同延迟投运场景下放射性物质的环境释放量,同时采用“欧洲用户要求( EUR)”文件提出的有限影响准则对严重事故的放射性后果进行评价,分析环形空间通风系统的延迟投运同“大量释放”间的关系。研究结果可为严重事故下的应急响应行动及放射性后果评价提供参考。

  4. 大型 LNG 储罐翻滚事故放空气扩散后果模拟%Simulation on diffusion consequence of vent gas in rollover accident of large LNG storage tank

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王鹏; 王全国; 党文义; 韩中枢

    2014-01-01

    发生翻滚事故时,大型LNG储罐内压力急剧升高,为防止储罐超压破裂,大量的天然气通过安全阀放空,而天然气具有易燃易爆的特点,可能在LNG接收站的装置区及罐区发生爆炸。利用计算流体力学的方法对不同风速、风向下放空气的扩散过程进行了模拟,得到CH4的浓度分布情况。结果表明:大气风速对放空气的扩散过程具有影响,当风速逐渐增大时,降落到地面的CH4逐渐增多,而当风速超过7m/s时,随着风速的增大,降落到地面的CH4开始减少。随着风速的增大,50%LEL影响范围逐渐减小。各种风速条件下,装置区和罐区CH4的浓度均未达到50%LEL,因此LNG储罐发生翻滚事故时,放空气不会形成爆炸性气氛。%When occurring rollover accident, the pressure in the large LNG storage tank will rise sharply.In order to prevent the storage tank from overpressure and rupture, a large number of natural gas vent through the safe valve mounted on the top of tank, which may lead to explosion in the unit area and tank zones of LNG receiving station due to the flammable and explosive characteristics of natural gas.Based on the computational fluid dynamics ( CFD) technology, the diffusion processes of vent gas under different wind velocities and wind directions were sim-ulated, and the concentration distributions of CH4 were obtained.The results showed that the wind speed had an in-fluence on the diffusion process of vent gas.The amount of CH4 falling to the ground increased as the wind speed increased.If the wind speed exceeded 7m /s, the amount of CH4 fall to ground decreased as the wind speeds in-creased.50%LEL scope of CH4 decreased as the wind speed increased.Under various wind speed conditions, both the concentration of CH4 in the storage tank area and the device area did not reach 50% LEL, therefore the vent gas in rollover accident of large LNG storage tank would not form explosive

  5. Communication and industrial accidents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    As, Sicco van

    2001-01-01

    This paper deals with the influence of organizational communication on safety. Accidents are actually caused by individual mistakes. However the underlying causes of accidents are often organizational. As a link between these two levels - the organizational failures and mistakes - I suggest the conc

  6. Accidents - personal factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zaitsev, S.L.; Tsygankov, A.V.

    1982-03-01

    This paper evaluates influence of selected personal factors on accident rate in underground coal mines in the USSR. Investigations show that so-called organizational factors cause from 80 to 85% of all accidents. About 70% of the organizational factors is associated with social, personal and economic features of personnel. Selected results of the investigations carried out in Donbass mines are discussed. Causes of miner dissatisfaction are reviewed: 14% is caused by unsatisfactory working conditions, 21% by repeated machine failures, 16% by forced labor during days off, 14% by unsatisfactory material supply, 16% by hard physical labor, 19% by other reasons. About 25% of miners injured during work accidents are characterized as highly professionally qualified with automatic reactions, and about 41% by medium qualifications. About 60% of accidents is caused by miners with less than a 3 year period of service. About 15% of accidents occurs during the first month after a miner has returned from a leave. More than 30% of accidents occurs on the first work day after a day or days off. Distribution of accidents is also presented: 19% of accidents occurs during the first 2 hours of a shift, 36% from the second to the fourth hour, and 45% occurs after the fourth hour and before the shift ends.

  7. Accident investigation and analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kampen, J. van; Drupsteen, L.

    2013-01-01

    Many organisations and companies take extensive proactive measures to identify, evaluate and reduce occupational risks. However, despite these efforts things still go wrong and unintended events occur. After a major incident or accident, conducting an accident investigation is generally the next ste

  8. Identification and evaluation of PWR in-vessel severe accident management strategies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dukelow, J S [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States); Harrison, D G [Jason Associates, Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Morgenstern, M [Battelle Human Affairs Research Center, Seattle, WA (United States)

    1992-03-01

    This reports documents work performed the NRC/RES Accident Management Guidance Program to evaluate possible strategies for mitigating the consequences of PWR severe accidents. The selection and evaluation of strategies was limited to the in-vessel phase of the severe accident, i.e., after the initiation of core degradation and prior to RPV failure. A parallel project at BNL has been considering strategies applicable to the ex-vessel phase of PWR severe accidents.

  9. Sustainability and uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karsten Klint

    2007-01-01

    and infers prescriptions from this requirement. These two approaches may conflict, and in this conflict the top-down approach has the upper hand, ethically speaking. However, the implicit goal in the top-down approach of justice between generations needs to be refined in several dimensions. But even given...... a clarified ethical goal, disagreements can arise. At present we do not know what substitutions will be possible in the future. This uncertainty clearly affects the prescriptions that follow from the measure of sustainability. Consequently, decisions about how to make future agriculture sustainable...... are decisions under uncertainty. There might be different judgments on likelihoods; but even given some set of probabilities, there might be disagreement on the right level of precaution in face of the uncertainty....

  10. Vulnerability assessment of chemical industry facilities in South Korea based on the chemical accident history

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heo, S.; Lee, W. K.; Jong-Ryeul, S.; Kim, M. I.

    2016-12-01

    The use of chemical compounds are keep increasing because of their use in manufacturing industry. Chemical accident is growing as the consequence of the chemical use increment. Devastating damages from chemical accidents are far enough to aware people's cautious about the risk of the chemical accident. In South Korea, Gumi Hydrofluoric acid leaking accident triggered the importance of risk management and emphasized the preventing the accident over the damage reducing process after the accident occurs. Gumi accident encouraged the government data base construction relate to the chemical accident. As the result of this effort Chemical Safety-Clearing-house (CSC) have started to record the chemical accident information and damages according to the Harmful Chemical Substance Control Act (HCSC). CSC provide details information about the chemical accidents from 2002 to present. The detail informations are including title of company, address, business type, accident dates, accident types, accident chemical compounds, human damages inside of the chemical industry facilities, human damage outside of the chemical industry facilities, financial damages inside of the chemical industry facilities, and financial damages outside of the chemical industry facilities, environmental damages and response to the chemical accident. Collected the chemical accident history of South Korea from 2002 to 2015 and provide the spatial information to the each accident records based on their address. With the spatial information, compute the data on ArcGIS for the spatial-temporal analysis. The spatial-temporal information of chemical accident is organized by the chemical accident types, damages, and damages on environment and conduct the spatial proximity with local community and environmental receptors. Find the chemical accident vulnerable area of South Korea from 2002 to 2015 and add the vulnerable area of total period to examine the historically vulnerable area from the chemical accident in

  11. Scoping Study Investigating PWR Instrumentation during a Severe Accident Scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rempe, J. L. [Rempe and Associates, LLC, Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Knudson, D. L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Lutz, R. J. [Lutz Nuclear Safety Consultant, LLC, Asheville, NC (United States)

    2015-09-01

    The accidents at the Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) and Fukushima Daiichi Units 1, 2, and 3 nuclear power plants demonstrate the critical importance of accurate, relevant, and timely information on the status of reactor systems during a severe accident. These events also highlight the critical importance of understanding and focusing on the key elements of system status information in an environment where operators may be overwhelmed with superfluous and sometimes conflicting data. While progress in these areas has been made since TMI-2, the events at Fukushima suggests that there may still be a potential need to ensure that critical plant information is available to plant operators. Recognizing the significant technical and economic challenges associated with plant modifications, it is important to focus on instrumentation that can address these information critical needs. As part of a program initiated by the Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE), a scoping effort was initiated to assess critical information needs identified for severe accident management and mitigation in commercial Light Water Reactors (LWRs), to quantify the environment instruments monitoring this data would have to survive, and to identify gaps where predicted environments exceed instrumentation qualification envelop (QE) limits. Results from the Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) scoping evaluations are documented in this report. The PWR evaluations were limited in this scoping evaluation to quantifying the environmental conditions for an unmitigated Short-Term Station BlackOut (STSBO) sequence in one unit at the Surry nuclear power station. Results were obtained using the MELCOR models developed for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)-sponsored State of the Art Consequence Assessment (SOARCA) program project. Results from this scoping evaluation indicate that some instrumentation identified to provide critical information would be exposed to conditions that

  12. Persistence of airline accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barros, Carlos Pestana; Faria, Joao Ricardo; Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko

    2010-10-01

    This paper expands on air travel accident research by examining the relationship between air travel accidents and airline traffic or volume in the period from 1927-2006. The theoretical model is based on a representative airline company that aims to maximise its profits, and it utilises a fractional integration approach in order to determine whether there is a persistent pattern over time with respect to air accidents and air traffic. Furthermore, the paper analyses how airline accidents are related to traffic using a fractional cointegration approach. It finds that airline accidents are persistent and that a (non-stationary) fractional cointegration relationship exists between total airline accidents and airline passengers, airline miles and airline revenues, with shocks that affect the long-run equilibrium disappearing in the very long term. Moreover, this relation is negative, which might be due to the fact that air travel is becoming safer and there is greater competition in the airline industry. Policy implications are derived for countering accident events, based on competition and regulation. © 2010 The Author(s). Journal compilation © Overseas Development Institute, 2010.

  13. Accident tolerant fuel analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Curtis [Idaho National Laboratory; Chichester, Heather [Idaho National Laboratory; Johns, Jesse [Texas A& M University; Teague, Melissa [Idaho National Laboratory; Tonks, Michael Idaho National Laboratory; Youngblood, Robert [Idaho National Laboratory

    2014-09-01

    Safety is central to the design, licensing, operation, and economics of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Consequently, the ability to better characterize and quantify safety margin holds the key to improved decision making about light water reactor design, operation, and plant life extension. A systematic approach to characterization of safety margins and the subsequent margins management options represents a vital input to the licensee and regulatory analysis and decision making that will be involved. The purpose of the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway research and development (R&D) is to support plant decisions for risk-informed margins management by improving economics and reliability, and sustaining safety, of current NPPs. Goals of the RISMC Pathway are twofold: (1) Develop and demonstrate a risk-assessment method coupled to safety margin quantification that can be used by NPP decision makers as part of their margin recovery strategies. (2) Create an advanced ''RISMC toolkit'' that enables more accurate representation of NPP safety margin. In order to carry out the R&D needed for the Pathway, the Idaho National Laboratory is performing a series of case studies that will explore methods- and tools-development issues, in addition to being of current interest in their own right. One such study is a comparative analysis of safety margins of plants using different fuel cladding types: specifically, a comparison between current-technology Zircaloy cladding and a notional ''accident-tolerant'' (e.g., SiC-based) cladding. The present report begins the process of applying capabilities that are still under development to the problem of assessing new fuel designs. The approach and lessons learned from this case study will be included in future Technical Basis Guides produced by the RISMC Pathway. These guides will be the mechanism for developing the specifications for RISMC tools and for defining how plant

  14. Accident Tolerant Fuel Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Curtis Smith; Heather Chichester; Jesse Johns; Melissa Teague; Michael Tonks; Robert Youngblood

    2014-09-01

    Safety is central to the design, licensing, operation, and economics of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Consequently, the ability to better characterize and quantify safety margin holds the key to improved decision making about light water reactor design, operation, and plant life extension. A systematic approach to characterization of safety margins and the subsequent margins management options represents a vital input to the licensee and regulatory analysis and decision making that will be involved. The purpose of the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway research and development (R&D) is to support plant decisions for risk-informed margins management by improving economics and reliability, and sustaining safety, of current NPPs. Goals of the RISMC Pathway are twofold: (1) Develop and demonstrate a risk-assessment method coupled to safety margin quantification that can be used by NPP decision makers as part of their margin recovery strategies. (2) Create an advanced “RISMC toolkit” that enables more accurate representation of NPP safety margin. In order to carry out the R&D needed for the Pathway, the Idaho National Laboratory is performing a series of case studies that will explore methods- and tools-development issues, in addition to being of current interest in their own right. One such study is a comparative analysis of safety margins of plants using different fuel cladding types: specifically, a comparison between current-technology Zircaloy cladding and a notional “accident-tolerant” (e.g., SiC-based) cladding. The present report begins the process of applying capabilities that are still under development to the problem of assessing new fuel designs. The approach and lessons learned from this case study will be included in future Technical Basis Guides produced by the RISMC Pathway. These guides will be the mechanism for developing the specifications for RISMC tools and for defining how plant decision makers should propose and

  15. A Review of Criticality Accidents 2000 Revision

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas P. McLaughlin; Shean P. Monahan; Norman L. Pruvost; Vladimir V. Frolov; Boris G. Ryazanov; Victor I. Sviridov

    2000-05-01

    Criticality accidents and the characteristics of prompt power excursions are discussed. Sixty accidental power excursions are reviewed. Sufficient detail is provided to enable the reader to understand the physical situation, the chemistry and material flow, and when available the administrative setting leading up to the time of the accident. Information on the power history, energy release, consequences, and causes are also included when available. For those accidents that occurred in process plants, two new sections have been included in this revision. The first is an analysis and summary of the physical and neutronic features of the chain reacting systems. The second is a compilation of observations and lessons learned. Excursions associated with large power reactors are not included in this report.

  16. Agricultural implications of the Fukushima nuclear accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakanishi, Tomoko M.

    2016-01-01

    More than 4 years has passed since the accident at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant. Immediately after the accident, 40 to 50 academic staff of the Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences at the University of Tokyo created an independent team to monitor the behavior of the radioactive materials in the field and their effects on agricultural farm lands, forests, rivers, animals, etc. When the radioactive nuclides from the nuclear power plant fell, they were instantly adsorbed at the site where they first touched; consequently, the fallout was found as scattered spots on the surface of anything that was exposed to the air at the time of the accident. The adsorption has become stronger over time, so the radioactive nuclides are now difficult to remove. The findings of our study regarding the wide range of effects on agricultural fields are summarized in this report. PMID:27538845

  17. Demand Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Daniel Xuyen

    This paper presents a model of trade that explains why firms wait to export and why many exporters fail. Firms face uncertain demands that are only realized after the firm enters the destination. The model retools the timing of uncertainty resolution found in productivity heterogeneity models...... in untested destinations. The option to forecast demands causes firms to delay exporting in order to gather more information about foreign demand. Third, since uncertainty is resolved after entry, many firms enter a destination and then exit after learning that they cannot profit. This prediction reconciles...

  18. Severe accident research and management in Nordic Countries - A status report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frid, W. [Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, SKI (Sweden)] (ed.)

    2002-01-01

    The report describes the status of severe accident research and accident management development in Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark. The emphasis is on severe accident phenomena and issues of special importance for the severe accident management strategies implemented in Sweden and in Finland. The main objective of the research has been to verify the protection provided by the accident mitigation measures and to reduce the uncertainties in risk dominant accident phenomena. Another objective has been to support validation and improvements of accident management strategies and procedures as well as to contribute to the development of level 2 PSA, computerised operator aids for accident management and certain aspects of emergency preparedness. Severe accident research addresses both the in-vessel and the ex-vessel accident progression phenomena and issues. Even though there are differences between Sweden and Finland as to the scope and content of the research programs, the focus of the research in both countries is on in-vessel coolability, integrity of the reactor vessel lower head and core melt behaviour in the containment, in particular the issues of core debris coolability and steam explosions. Notwithstanding that our understanding of these issues has significantly improved, and that experimental data base has been largely expanded, there are still important uncertainties which motivate continued research. Other important areas are thermal-hydraulic phenomena during reflooding of an overheated partially degraded core, fission product chemistry, in particular formation of organic iodine, and hydrogen transport and combustion phenomena. The development of severe accident management has embraced, among other things, improvements of accident mitigating procedures and strategies, further work at IFE Halden on Computerised Accident Management Support (CAMS) system, as well as plant modifications, including new instrumentation. Recent efforts in Sweden in this area

  19. [Drivers of advanced age in traffic accidents].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilban, Marjan

    2002-12-01

    The elderly are vulnerable and potentially unpredictable active participants in traffic who deserve special attention. Longer life expectancy entails a greater number of senior drivers, that is, persons with various health problems and difficulties accompanying old age. At the turn of the millennium, the share of population aged 65 or more in Slovenia was around 13%, and in 25 years it will be near as much as 19%. The share of drivers from this age group was 28% a year ago, and it is expected to reach about 54%. Numerous studies have shown that there are many differences in driving attitude between the young and the elderly. The young are by large active victims, and their main offense and cause of accident is speeding, while the elderly are more passive and their main offense is ignoring and enforcing the right of way. This paper focuses on the differences in the occurrence and type of injuries between the young and the elderly drivers, based on an analysis of all road accidents in Slovenia in the period between 1998-2000. Older people (over 65) caused only 4.7% of all road accidents (16.7% of all accidents involving pedestrians, 11.5% of all involving cyclists, 2.7% involving motorcyclists and 5% of all accidents involving car drivers). Of all accidents, 89.3% were without injuries, and the fatal outcome was registered in 0.4% accidents. Among the elderly (65-74 years of age), however, this share was 1%, and rising to 2.7% with the age 75 and above. By calculating the weight index, which discriminates between minor and severe injuries, and the fatal outcome, it was established that age groups 65-74 and > or = 75 cause three and five times greater damage, respectively than age groups from 18 to 54 years. With years, psychophysical changes lead to a drop in driving ability, which in turn increases the risk of road accidents. It is true that elderly people cause less traffic accidents (and also drive less) than the young, but when they are involved in an accident

  20. Traffic Accidents on Slippery Roads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fonnesbech, J. K.; Bolet, Lars

    2014-01-01

    Police registrations from 65 accidents on slippery roads in normally Danish winters have been studied. The study showed: • 1 accident per 100 km when using brine spread with nozzles • 2 accidents per 100 km when using pre wetted salt • 3 accidents per 100 km when using kombi spreaders The results...

  1. Calibration uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heydorn, Kaj; Anglov, Thomas

    2002-01-01

    Methods recommended by the International Standardization Organisation and Eurachem are not satisfactory for the correct estimation of calibration uncertainty. A novel approach is introduced and tested on actual calibration data for the determination of Pb by ICP-AES. The improved calibration unce...

  2. Boating Accident Statistics

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — Accident statistics available on the Coast Guard’s website by state, year, and one variable to obtain tables and/or graphs. Data from reports has been loaded for...

  3. Accident resistant transport container

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, John A.; Cole, James K.

    1980-01-01

    The invention relates to a container for the safe air transport of plutonium having several intermediate wood layers and a load spreader intermediate an inner container and an outer shell for mitigation of shock during a hypothetical accident.

  4. Cyclical Fluctuations in Workplace Accidents

    OpenAIRE

    Boone, J.; J. C. VAN OURS

    2002-01-01

    This Paper presents a theory and an empirical investigation on cyclical fluctuations in workplace accidents. The theory is based on the idea that reporting an accident dents the reputation of a worker and raises the probability that he is fired. Therefore a country with a high or an increasing unemployment rate has a low (reported) workplace accident rate. The empirical investigation concerns workplace accidents in OECD countries. The analysis confirms that workplace accident rates are invers...

  5. Uncertainty quantification approaches for advanced reactor analyses.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Briggs, L. L.; Nuclear Engineering Division

    2009-03-24

    The original approach to nuclear reactor design or safety analyses was to make very conservative modeling assumptions so as to ensure meeting the required safety margins. Traditional regulation, as established by the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission required conservatisms which have subsequently been shown to be excessive. The commission has therefore moved away from excessively conservative evaluations and has determined best-estimate calculations to be an acceptable alternative to conservative models, provided the best-estimate results are accompanied by an uncertainty evaluation which can demonstrate that, when a set of analysis cases which statistically account for uncertainties of all types are generated, there is a 95% probability that at least 95% of the cases meet the safety margins. To date, nearly all published work addressing uncertainty evaluations of nuclear power plant calculations has focused on light water reactors and on large-break loss-of-coolant accident (LBLOCA) analyses. However, there is nothing in the uncertainty evaluation methodologies that is limited to a specific type of reactor or to specific types of plant scenarios. These same methodologies can be equally well applied to analyses for high-temperature gas-cooled reactors and to liquid metal reactors, and they can be applied to steady-state calculations, operational transients, or severe accident scenarios. This report reviews and compares both statistical and deterministic uncertainty evaluation approaches. Recommendations are given for selection of an uncertainty methodology and for considerations to be factored into the process of evaluating uncertainties for advanced reactor best-estimate analyses.

  6. A comparison of the hazard perception ability of accident-involved and accident-free motorcycle riders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Andy S K; Ng, Terry C K; Lee, Hoe C

    2011-07-01

    conceptualizing the influence of different driving behaviors so as to enrich our understanding of the role of human factors in road accidents and consequently develop effective countermeasures to prevent traffic accidents involving motorcycles.

  7. New procedure for declaring accidents resulting in bodily injuries

    CERN Multimedia

    2014-01-01

    The HR Department would like to remind members of personnel that, according to Administrative Circular No. 14 (Rev. 3), entitled “Protection of members of the personnel against the financial consequences of illness, accident and incapacity for work”, accidents resulting in bodily injuries and presumed to be of an occupational nature should, under normal circumstances, be declared within 10 working days of the accident having occurred, accompanied by a medical certificate. In an effort to streamline procedures, occupational accident declarations should be made via EDH using the “declaration of occupational accident” electronic form. For the declaration of non-occupational accidents resulting in bodily injuries of members of the CERN Health Insurance Scheme (CHIS), a new paper form has been elaborated that can be downloaded from the CHIS website and is also available from the UNIQA Helpdesk in the Main Building. If you encounter technical difficulties with these new ...

  8. Assessment of environmental public exposure from a hypothetical nuclear accident for Unit-1 Bushehr nuclear power plant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohrabi, M; Ghasemi, M; Amrollahi, R; Khamooshi, C; Parsouzi, Z

    2013-05-01

    Unit-1 of the Bushehr nuclear power plant (BNPP-1) is a VVER-type reactor with 1,000-MWe power constructed near Bushehr city at the coast of the Persian Gulf, Iran. The reactor has been recently operational to near its full power. The radiological impact of nuclear power plant (NPP) accidents is of public concern, and the assessment of radiological consequences of any hypothetical nuclear accident on public exposure is vital. The hypothetical accident scenario considered in this paper is a design-basis accident, that is, a primary coolant leakage to the secondary circuit. This scenario was selected in order to compare and verify the results obtained in the present paper with those reported in the Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR 2007) of the BNPP-1 and to develop a well-proven methodology that can be used to study other and more severe hypothetical accident scenarios for this reactor. In the present study, the version 2.01 of the PC COSYMA code was applied. In the early phase of the accidental releases, effective doses (from external and internal exposures) as well as individual and collective doses (due to the late phase of accidental releases) were evaluated. The surrounding area of the BNPP-1 within a radius of 80 km was subdivided into seven concentric rings and 16 sectors, and distribution of population and agricultural products was calculated for this grid. The results show that during the first year following the modeled hypothetical accident, the effective doses do not exceed the limit of 5 mSv, for the considered distances from the BNPP-1. The results obtained in this study are in good agreement with those in the FSAR-2007 report. The agreement obtained is in light of many inherent uncertainties and variables existing in the two modeling procedures applied and proves that the methodology applied here can also be used to model other severe hypothetical accident scenarios of the BNPP-1 such as a small and large break in the reactor coolant system as well

  9. ECONOMIC COSTS ASSOCIATED WITH MOTORBIKE ACCIDENTS IN KATHMANDU, NEPAL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diksha Sapkota

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Road traffic accidents, considered as global tragedies, are in increasing trend however, the safety situation is very severe in developing countries incurring substantial amount of human, economic and social costs. Motorcycle crashes, the commonest form, occur mostly on economically active population. However, there is limited coverage of studies on economic burden of motorcycle crashes. This study aims to estimate the total cost and DALYs lost due to motorbike accidents among victims of Kathmandu Valley.Materials and Methods: Retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted among the patients having history of motorbike accidents within past twelve months and at least 3 months from the date of data collection. Interview was conducted using proforma among 100 victims of accidents and their care giver in case of death from November 15, 2014 to May 15, 2015. Cost estimation of motorbike accident was done based on human capital approach. Data collection tool was pretested and collected data were analyzed by SPSS and Microsoft excel. Results: Males (79% belonging to the economically productive age group shared the highest proportion among total accidents victims. Most common reason for accidents was reported to be poor road condition (41%. Indirect cost was found to be significantly higher than direct costs highlighting its negative impact on economy of family and nation due to productivity loss. Total Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs lost per person was found to be 490 years and national estimation showed large burden of motorbike accidents due to huge DALY loss.Conclusions: For low resource countries like Nepal, high economic costs of motorbike accidents can pose additional burden to the fragile health system. These accidents can be prevented, and their consequences can be alleviated. There is an urgent need for reinforcement of appropriate interventions and legislation to decrease the magnitude of it and its associated grave

  10. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF SOME HEALTH INDICATORS OF VARIOUS RADIATION ACCIDENTS LIQUIDATORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. M. Shubik

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the results of comparative investigation of morbidity and immunity of liquidators of radiation accidents occurred in South Urals (Kyshtym accident, at Chernobyl NPP and nuclear submarines (NS consequences. The most evident immunity and health changes were revealed for liquidators of Chernobyl NPP accident (ChNPP. Investigations of Kyshtym accident liquidators revealed long-term immunological losses. Comparison of health indicators of Chernobyl and nuclear submarine accident liquidators reveals the possibility of combined influence of radiation and stress on the immunity and health.

  11. Societal and ethical aspects of the Fukushima accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oughton, Deborah

    2016-10-01

    The Fukushima Nuclear Power Station accident in Japan in 2011 was a poignant reminder that radioactive contamination of the environment has consequences that encompass far more than health risks from exposure to radiation. Both the accident and remediation measures have resulted in serious societal impacts and raise questions about the ethical aspects of risk management. This article presents a brief review of some of these issues and compares similarities and differences with the lessons learned from the 1986 Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident in Ukraine. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:651-653. © 2016 SETAC.

  12. How Uncertain is Uncertainty?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vámos, Tibor

    The gist of the paper is the fundamental uncertain nature of all kinds of uncertainties and consequently a critical epistemic review of historical and recent approaches, computational methods, algorithms. The review follows the development of the notion from the beginnings of thinking, via the Aristotelian and Skeptic view, the medieval nominalism and the influential pioneering metaphors of ancient India and Persia to the birth of modern mathematical disciplinary reasoning. Discussing the models of uncertainty, e.g. the statistical, other physical and psychological background we reach a pragmatic model related estimation perspective, a balanced application orientation for different problem areas. Data mining, game theories and recent advances in approximation algorithms are discussed in this spirit of modest reasoning.

  13. Development of Parameter Network for Accident Management Applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pak, Sukyoung; Ahemd, Rizwan; Heo, Gyunyoung [Kyung Hee Univ., Yongin (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Jung Taek; Park, Soo Yong; Ahn, Kwang Il [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    When a severe accident happens, it is hard to obtain the necessary information to understand of internal status because of the failure or damage of instrumentation and control systems. We learned the lessons from Fukushima accident that internal instrumentation system should be secured and must have ability to react in serious conditions. While there might be a number of methods to reinforce the integrity of instrumentation systems, we focused on the use of redundant behavior of plant parameters without additional hardware installation. Specifically, the objective of this study is to estimate the replaced value which is able to identify internal status by using set of available signals when it is impossible to use instrumentation information in a severe accident, which is the continuation of the paper which was submitted at the last KNS meeting. The concept of the VPN was suggested to improve the quality of parameters particularly to be logged during severe accidents in NPPs using a software based approach, and quantize the importance of each parameter for further maintenance. In the future, we will continue to perform the same analysis to other accident scenarios and extend the spectrum of initial conditions so that we are able to get more sets of VPNs and ANN models to predict the behavior of accident scenarios. The suggested method has the uncertainty underlain in the analysis code for severe accidents. However, In case of failure to the safety critical instrumentation, the information from the VPN would be available to carry out safety management operation.

  14. Increase the Safety of Road Traffic Accidents by Applying Clustering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kos Goran

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In terms of continual increase of number of traffic accidents and alarming trend of increasing number of traffic accidents with catastrophic consequences for human life and health, it is necessary to actively research and develop methods to combat these trends. One of the measures is the implementation of advanced information systems in existing traffic environment. Accidents clusters, as databases of traffic accidents, introduce a new dimension in traffic systems in the form of experience, providing information on current accidents and the ones that have previously occurred in a given period. This paper proposes a new approach to predictive management of traffic processes, based on the collection of data in real time and is based on accidents clusters. The modern traffic information services collects road traffic status data from a wide variety of traffic sensing systems using modern ICT technologies, creating the most accurate road traffic situation awareness achieved so far. Road traffic situation awareness enhanced by accident clusters' data can be visualized and distributed in various ways (including the forms of dynamic heat maps and on various information platforms, suiting the requirements of the end-users. Accent is placed on their significant features that are based on additional knowledge about existing traffic processes and distribution of important traffic information in order to prevent and reduce traffic accidents.

  15. The survey of occupational accidents in Yazd gas agency (2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir Hossein Khoshakhlagh

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: Existence of coordinated and professional safety system to prevent occurrence of accidents and potential hazards seem to be essential in installing networks of gas distribution projects. Objective: To survey work-related accidents and safety performance indices in project implementation unit of Yazd gas agency. Methods: This analytical study was conducted on 197 of workforce in Yazd gas agency in 2013 that were selected by census and they were male. Demographic and accident information were gathered using a self-made questionnaire and face- to- face interview, and required information obtained from dossier to determine the safety performance indicators. Safety performance indicators were calculated in separately of 13 types occupations in project implementation unit of gas agency and data were analyzed using T-test. Findings: The highest accident frequency and severity rate were related to digging occupation and then metal line welding. Consequences of accidents were cuts (%56.7 and soreness (%14.9. The causes of accidents were related to uselessness of personal protective equipment (%25.2 and lack of precision in the task (%19.3. The highest rate of accident was observed among the age group 20-29 years with work experience of 4-6 years. Conclusion: According to the findings of this study and the risk of gas processes, it seems to be necessary the implementation of integrated management systems and training of workers about safety rules to improve the safety culture and prevent accidents.

  16. Lessons from Chernobyl and prognosis for Fukushima: radiological consequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivanov, Victor K

    2012-03-01

    The following are considered: results of large-scale radiation epidemiological studies of the health effects of the Chernobyl accident, radiation risks for emergency workers and the affected population; and verification of ICRP risk models taking into account data on the Chernobyl accident and preliminary prognostic estimates of potential radiological consequences of the Fukushima disaster.

  17. Demand Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Daniel Xuyen

    This paper presents a model of trade that explains why firms wait to export and why many exporters fail. Firms face uncertain demands that are only realized after the firm enters the destination. The model retools the timing of uncertainty resolution found in productivity heterogeneity models...... the high rate of exit seen in the first years of exporting. Finally, when faced with multiple countries in which to export, some firms will choose to sequentially export in order to slowly learn more about its chances for success in untested markets....

  18. Who by accident? The social morphology of car accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Factor, Roni; Yair, Gad; Mahalel, David

    2010-09-01

    Prior studies in the sociology of accidents have shown that different social groups have different rates of accident involvement. This study extends those studies by implementing Bourdieu's relational perspective of social space to systematically explore the homology between drivers' social characteristics and their involvement in specific types of motor vehicle accident. Using a large database that merges official Israeli road-accident records with socioeconomic data from two censuses, this research maps the social order of road accidents through multiple correspondence analysis. Extending prior studies, the results show that different social groups indeed tend to be involved in motor vehicle accidents of different types and severity. For example, we find that drivers from low socioeconomic backgrounds are overinvolved in severe accidents with fatal outcomes. The new findings reported here shed light on the social regularity of road accidents and expose new facets in the social organization of death. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  19. International law problems for realisation of the IAEA conventions on notification and assistance in the case of a nuclear accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petrov, M.M.

    1993-12-31

    The Chernobyl accident underscored the need for an early warning system and international assistance plan in case of a nuclear accident. Shortly after Chernobyl, two conventions were adopted under the auspices of the IAEA. The convention on Early Notification of a Nuclear Accident, in force since 1986, establishes an early warning system for all nuclear accidents whose effects might cross national boundaries. Under the convention on Assistance in the Case of a Nuclear accident or radiological Emergency,in force since 1987, countries must facilitate prompt assistance in case of a nuclear accident or radiological emergency, to minimize it`s consequences. Issues with the conventions are described.

  20. ALICE Injected Beam Accidents

    CERN Document Server

    Appleby, R B

    2009-01-01

    The ALICE (point 2) interaction region is sensitive to beam orbit errors arising from magnet setting errors on injection. In this report, beam accident scenarios under injection for ALICE are described, focusing on ultra- fast error injection scenarios for the interaction straight correctors and dipoles. Beam 1 and beam 2 accident scenarios are considered, where the errors can lead to beam orbits striking the ALICE vacuum chamber or elements of the machine. The required thresholds for magnet current interlocks are calculated to avoid machine and detector risk.

  1. LHCb Injected Beam Accidents

    CERN Document Server

    Appleby, R B

    2009-01-01

    The LHCb (point 8) interaction region is sensitive to beam orbit errors arising from magnet setting errors on injection. In this report, beam accident scenarios under injection for LHCb are described, focusing on ultra- fast error injection scenarios for the interaction straight correctors and dipoles. Beam 1 and beam 2 accident scenarios are considered, where the errors can lead to beam orbits striking the LHCb vacuum chamber or elements of the machine. The required thresholds for magnet current interlocks are calculated to avoid machine and detector risk.

  2. Uncertainty analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas, R.E.

    1982-03-01

    An evaluation is made of the suitability of analytical and statistical sampling methods for making uncertainty analyses. The adjoint method is found to be well-suited for obtaining sensitivity coefficients for computer programs involving large numbers of equations and input parameters. For this purpose the Latin Hypercube Sampling method is found to be inferior to conventional experimental designs. The Latin hypercube method can be used to estimate output probability density functions, but requires supplementary rank transformations followed by stepwise regression to obtain uncertainty information on individual input parameters. A simple Cork and Bottle problem is used to illustrate the efficiency of the adjoint method relative to certain statistical sampling methods. For linear models of the form Ax=b it is shown that a complete adjoint sensitivity analysis can be made without formulating and solving the adjoint problem. This can be done either by using a special type of statistical sampling or by reformulating the primal problem and using suitable linear programming software.

  3. An Evidential Reasoning-Based CREAM to Human Reliability Analysis in Maritime Accident Process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Bing; Yan, Xinping; Wang, Yang; Soares, C Guedes

    2017-01-09

    This article proposes a modified cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) for estimating the human error probability in the maritime accident process on the basis of an evidential reasoning approach. This modified CREAM is developed to precisely quantify the linguistic variables of the common performance conditions and to overcome the problem of ignoring the uncertainty caused by incomplete information in the existing CREAM models. Moreover, this article views maritime accident development from the sequential perspective, where a scenario- and barrier-based framework is proposed to describe the maritime accident process. This evidential reasoning-based CREAM approach together with the proposed accident development framework are applied to human reliability analysis of a ship capsizing accident. It will facilitate subjective human reliability analysis in different engineering systems where uncertainty exists in practice.

  4. Network-level accident-mapping: Distance based pattern matching using artificial neural network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deka, Lipika; Quddus, Mohammed

    2014-04-01

    The objective of an accident-mapping algorithm is to snap traffic accidents onto the correct road segments. Assigning accidents onto the correct segments facilitate to robustly carry out some key analyses in accident research including the identification of accident hot-spots, network-level risk mapping and segment-level accident risk modelling. Existing risk mapping algorithms have some severe limitations: (i) they are not easily 'transferable' as the algorithms are specific to given accident datasets; (ii) they do not perform well in all road-network environments such as in areas of dense road network; and (iii) the methods used do not perform well in addressing inaccuracies inherent in and type of road environment. The purpose of this paper is to develop a new accident mapping algorithm based on the common variables observed in most accident databases (e.g. road name and type, direction of vehicle movement before the accident and recorded accident location). The challenges here are to: (i) develop a method that takes into account uncertainties inherent to the recorded traffic accident data and the underlying digital road network data, (ii) accurately determine the type and proportion of inaccuracies, and (iii) develop a robust algorithm that can be adapted for any accident set and road network of varying complexity. In order to overcome these challenges, a distance based pattern-matching approach is used to identify the correct road segment. This is based on vectors containing feature values that are common in the accident data and the network data. Since each feature does not contribute equally towards the identification of the correct road segments, an ANN approach using the single-layer perceptron is used to assist in "learning" the relative importance of each feature in the distance calculation and hence the correct link identification. The performance of the developed algorithm was evaluated based on a reference accident dataset from the UK confirming that

  5. Lessons learned from accidents investigations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zuniga-Bello, P. [Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia (CONACYT), Mexico City (Mexico); Croft, J. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Glenn, J

    1997-12-31

    Accidents from three main practices: medical applications, industrial radiography and industrial irradiators are used to illustrate some common causes of accidents and the main lessons to be learned. A brief description of some of these accidents is given. Lessons learned from the described accidents are approached by subjects covering: safety culture, quality assurance, human factors, good engineering practice, defence in depth, security of sources, safety assessment and monitoring and verification compliance. (author)

  6. Uncertainty quantification and reliability assessment in operational oil spill forecast modeling system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Xianlong; Hodges, Ben R; Feng, Dongyu; Liu, Qixiao

    2017-03-15

    As oil transport increasing in the Texas bays, greater risks of ship collisions will become a challenge, yielding oil spill accidents as a consequence. To minimize the ecological damage and optimize rapid response, emergency managers need to be informed with how fast and where oil will spread as soon as possible after a spill. The state-of-the-art operational oil spill forecast modeling system improves the oil spill response into a new stage. However uncertainty due to predicted data inputs often elicits compromise on the reliability of the forecast result, leading to misdirection in contingency planning. Thus understanding the forecast uncertainty and reliability become significant. In this paper, Monte Carlo simulation is implemented to provide parameters to generate forecast probability maps. The oil spill forecast uncertainty is thus quantified by comparing the forecast probability map and the associated hindcast simulation. A HyosPy-based simple statistic model is developed to assess the reliability of an oil spill forecast in term of belief degree. The technologies developed in this study create a prototype for uncertainty and reliability analysis in numerical oil spill forecast modeling system, providing emergency managers to improve the capability of real time operational oil spill response and impact assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Authority structure and industrial accidents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    As, Sicco van

    2001-01-01

    This paper deals with the influence of organizational characteristics on safety. Accidents are actually caused by individual mistakes. However the underlying causes of accidents are often organizational. The general hypothesis is that the authority structure is a main cause of accident-proneness

  8. Comparison of the Chernobyl and Fukushima nuclear accidents: a review of the environmental impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinhauser, Georg; Brandl, Alexander; Johnson, Thomas E

    2014-02-01

    The environmental impacts of the nuclear accidents of Chernobyl and Fukushima are compared. In almost every respect, the consequences of the Chernobyl accident clearly exceeded those of the Fukushima accident. In both accidents, most of the radioactivity released was due to volatile radionuclides (noble gases, iodine, cesium, tellurium). However, the amount of refractory elements (including actinides) emitted in the course of the Chernobyl accident was approximately four orders of magnitude higher than during the Fukushima accident. For Chernobyl, a total release of 5,300 PBq (excluding noble gases) has been established as the most cited source term. For Fukushima, we estimated a total source term of 520 (340-800) PBq. In the course of the Fukushima accident, the majority of the radionuclides (more than 80%) was transported offshore and deposited in the Pacific Ocean. Monitoring campaigns after both accidents reveal that the environmental impact of the Chernobyl accident was much greater than of the Fukushima accident. Both the highly contaminated areas and the evacuated areas are smaller around Fukushima and the projected health effects in Japan are significantly lower than after the Chernobyl accident. This is mainly due to the fact that food safety campaigns and evacuations worked quickly and efficiently after the Fukushima accident. In contrast to Chernobyl, no fatalities due to acute radiation effects occurred in Fukushima. © 2013.

  9. Modeling to assessment in an environmental consequences of nuclear accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arkhipov, A.N.; Meleshin, A.Yu.; Ponomarev, S.Yu; Ozornov, A.G.; Tepikin, V.E.; Arkhipov, N.P. [Chernobyl Scientific and Technical Centre for International Research, Chernobyl (Ukraine)

    2001-03-01

    To evaluate radiological risk of Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, radionuclide migration mechanisms were investigated including partially vertical migration through soil to plant. After collection and systematization of radiological data on {sup 90}Sr, {sup 137/134}Cs, Ce, and Ru regarding to terrestrial (spatial) and vertical distribution in soil profile in the framework of subproject-2 CheSCIR, the methodology of combining various radio-ecological and geographical information has been developed, which allows to analyze possible schemes of economic use of the contaminated territories. (S. Ohno)

  10. Risk Estimation Methodology for Launch Accidents.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clayton, Daniel James; Lipinski, Ronald J.; Bechtel, Ryan D.

    2014-02-01

    As compact and light weight power sources with reliable, long lives, Radioisotope Power Systems (RPSs) have made space missions to explore the solar system possible. Due to the hazardous material that can be released during a launch accident, the potential health risk of an accident must be quantified, so that appropriate launch approval decisions can be made. One part of the risk estimation involves modeling the response of the RPS to potential accident environments. Due to the complexity of modeling the full RPS response deterministically on dynamic variables, the evaluation is performed in a stochastic manner with a Monte Carlo simulation. The potential consequences can be determined by modeling the transport of the hazardous material in the environment and in human biological pathways. The consequence analysis results are summed and weighted by appropriate likelihood values to give a collection of probabilistic results for the estimation of the potential health risk. This information is used to guide RPS designs, spacecraft designs, mission architecture, or launch procedures to potentially reduce the risk, as well as to inform decision makers of the potential health risks resulting from the use of RPSs for space missions.

  11. Procedure for the classification of professional accidents of members of the personnel – REMINDER

    CERN Multimedia

    HR Department

    2011-01-01

    HR Department would like to remind members of the personnel that, according to the procedure for an accident deemed to be occupational and according to paragraph 29 of Administrative Circular No. 14 (Rev.2), they are requested to complete an accident declaration form (HS 50) within ten working days after the accident has occurred*). Once this deadline has passed, HR Department will be unable to proceed with the classification of the accident and, consequently, medical expenses that may arise linked to this accident will be reimbursed under the non-occupational scheme. In addition, any request for the classification of occupational accidents must be accompanied by a medical certificate detailing the bodily injuries resulting from the accident in question.   _______________ *) Or within three months of its occurrence if the victim or his beneficiaries are materially unable to meet this deadline.

  12. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Surry, Unit-1: Analysis of core damage frequency from internal events during mid-loop operations. Appendices F-H, Volume 2, Part 4

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chu, T.L.; Musicki, Z.; Kohut, P.; Yang, J.; Bozoki, G.; Hsu, C.J.; Diamond, D.J. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States); Bley, D.; Johnson, D. [PLG Inc., Newport Beach, CA (United States); Holmes, B. [AEA Technology, Dorset (United Kingdom)] [and others

    1994-06-01

    Traditionally, probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) of severe accidents in nuclear power plants have considered initiating events potentially occurring only during full power operation. Some previous screening analyses that were performed for other modes of operation suggested that risks during those modes were small relative to full power operation. However, more recent studies and operational experience have implied that accidents during low power and shutdown could be significant contributors to risk. Two plants, Surry (pressurized water reactor) and Grand Gulf (boiling water reactor), were selected as the plants to be studied. The objectives of the program are to assess the risks of severe accidents initiated during plant operational states other than full power operation and to compare the estimated core damage frequencies, important accident sequences and other qualitative and quantitative results with those accidents initiated during full power operation as assessed in NUREG-1150. The scope of the program includes that of a level-3 PRA. In phase 2, mid-loop operation was selected as the plant configuration to be analyzed based on the results of the phase 1 study. The objective of the phase 2 study is to perform a detailed analysis of the potential accident scenarios that may occur during mid-loop operation, and compare the results with those of NUREG-1150. The scope of the level-1 study includes plant damage state analysis, and uncertainty analysis. Volume 1 summarizes the results of the study. Internal events analysis is documented in Volume 2. It also contains an appendix that documents the part of the phase 1 study that has to do with POSs other than mid-loop operation. Internal fire and internal flood analyses are documented in Volumes 3 and 4. A separate study on seismic analysis, documented in Volume 5, was performed for the NRC by Future Resources Associates, Inc. Volume 6 documents the accident progression, source terms, and consequence analysis.

  13. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Surry, Unit 1: Analysis of core damage frequency from internal events during mid-loop operations. Appendix E (Sections E.9-E.16), Volume 2, Part 3B

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chu, T.L.; Musicki, Z.; Kohut, P.; Yang, J.; Bozoki, G.; Hsu, C.J.; Diamond, D.J.; Wong, S.M. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States); Bley, D.; Johnson, D. [PLG Inc., Newport Beach, CA (United States)] [and others

    1994-06-01

    Traditionally, probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) of severe accidents in nuclear power plants have considered initiating events potentially occurring only during full power operation. Some previous screening analyses that were performed for other modes of operation suggested that risks during those modes were small relative to full power operation. However, more recent studies and operational experience have implied that accidents during low power and shutdown could be significant contributors to risk. Two plants, Surry (pressurized water reactor) and Grand Gulf (boiling water reactor), were selected as the plants to be studied. The objectives of the program are to assess the risks of severe accidents initiated during plant operational states other than full power operation and to compare the estimated core damage frequencies, important accident sequences and other qualitative and quantitative results with those accidents initiated during full power operation as assessed in NUREG-1150. The scope of the program includes that of a level-3 PRA. In phase 2, mid-loop operation was selected as the plant configuration to be analyzed based on the results of the phase 1 study. The objective of the phase 2 study is to perform a detailed analysis of the potential accident scenarios that may occur during mid-loop operation, and compare the results with those of NUREG-1150. The scope of the level-1 study includes plant damage state analysis, and uncertainty analysis. Volume 1 summarizes the results of the study. Internal events analysis is documented in Volume 2. It also contains an appendix that documents the part of the phase 1 study that has to do with POSs other than mid-loop operation. Internal fire and internal flood analyses are documented in Volumes 3 and 4. A separate study on seismic analysis, documented in Volume 5, was performed for the NRC by Future Resources Associates, Inc. Volume 6 documents the accident progression, source terms, and consequence analysis.

  14. A web-application for visualizing uncertainty in numerical ensemble models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alberti, Koko; Hiemstra, Paul; de Jong, Kor; Karssenberg, Derek

    2013-04-01

    Numerical ensemble models are used in the analysis and forecasting of a wide range of environmental processes. Common use cases include assessing the consequences of nuclear accidents, pollution releases into the ocean or atmosphere, forest fires, volcanic eruptions, or identifying areas at risk from such hazards. In addition to the increased use of scenario analyses and model forecasts, the availability of supplementary data describing errors and model uncertainties is increasingly commonplace. Unfortunately most current visualization routines are not capable of properly representing uncertain information. As a result, uncertainty information is not provided at all, not readily accessible, or it is not communicated effectively to model users such as domain experts, decision makers, policy makers, or even novice users. In an attempt to address these issues a lightweight and interactive web-application has been developed. It makes clear and concise uncertainty visualizations available in a web-based mapping and visualization environment, incorporating aggregation (upscaling) techniques to adjust uncertainty information to the zooming level. The application has been built on a web mapping stack of open source software, and can quantify and visualize uncertainties in numerical ensemble models in such a way that both expert and novice users can investigate uncertainties present in a simple ensemble dataset. As a test case, a dataset was used which forecasts the spread of an airborne tracer across Western Europe. Extrinsic uncertainty representations are used in which dynamic circular glyphs are overlaid on model attribute maps to convey various uncertainty concepts. It supports both basic uncertainty metrics such as standard deviation, standard error, width of the 95% confidence interval and interquartile range, as well as more experimental ones aimed at novice users. Ranges of attribute values can be specified, and the circular glyphs dynamically change size to

  15. Neutronic evaluation of coating and cladding materials for accident tolerant fuels

    OpenAIRE

    Younker, I; Fratoni, M

    2016-01-01

    © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. In severe accident conditions with loss of active cooling in the core, zirconium alloys, used as fuel cladding materials for current light water reactors (LWR), undergo a rapid oxidation by high temperature steam with consequent hydrogen generation. Novel fuel technologies, named accident tolerant fuels (ATF), seek to improve the endurance of severe accident conditions in LWRs by eliminating or at least mitigating such detrimental steam-cladding inter...

  16. Ranking of severe accident research priorities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schwinges, B. [Gesell Anlagen and Reaktorsicherheit GRS mbH, D-50667 Cologne (Germany); Journeau, C. [CEA Cadarache, DEN STRI LMA, F-13115 St Paul Les Durance (France); Haste, T. [Paul Scherrer Inst, NES LTH, OVGA 312, CH-5232 Villigen (Switzerland); Meyer, L.; Tromm, W. [Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, D-76021 Karlsruhe (Germany); Trambauer, K. [GRS mbH, Forschungsgelande, D-85748 Garching (Germany)

    2010-07-01

    The objectives of the SARNET network are to define common research programmes in the field of severe accidents and to develop common computer tools and methodologies for safety assessment in this field. To reach these objectives, one of the work packages, named 'Severe Accident Research Priorities' (SARP), aimed at reviewing and reassessing the priorities of research issues as a basis to harmonize and to re-orient research programmes, to define new ones, and to close - if possible - resolved issues on a common basis. The work was performed in close collaboration with 8 participating institutions, led by GRS, representing technical safety organisations, industry and utilities (IRSN, CEA, EDF, FZK, GRS, KTH, TUS, VTT). This action made use notably of (1) the outcomes of the EURSAFE project in the 5. Framework Programme, i. e. the Phenomena Identification and Ranking Tables (PIRT) on severe accidents, (2) the results of the validation and benchmarking activities on ASTEC, (3) the results of reactor calculations carried out in the other SARNET tasks, and (4) the outcome of the research performed in the three thematic sub-domains of SARNET (corium, containment and source term). The main outcome of EURSAFE was a list of 21 topics which included recommendations for experimental programmes and code developments. This list formed the basis of the work in SARP. Also the methodology applied in EURSAFE to consider both the risk potential and the severe accident issues where large uncertainties still subsist was adopted. The analyses of the progress of research and development activities considered whether (1) any research issue was resolved due to reduction of uncertainties or gain of scientific insights, (2) any new issue had to be added to the list of needed research, (3) any new process or phenomenon had to be included in the general PIRT list taking into account the safety relevance and the lack of knowledge, and (4) any new accident management program has to be

  17. Comparison of the Chernobyl and Fukushima nuclear accidents: A review of the environmental impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steinhauser, Georg, E-mail: georg.steinhauser@colostate.edu; Brandl, Alexander; Johnson, Thomas E.

    2014-02-01

    The environmental impacts of the nuclear accidents of Chernobyl and Fukushima are compared. In almost every respect, the consequences of the Chernobyl accident clearly exceeded those of the Fukushima accident. In both accidents, most of the radioactivity released was due to volatile radionuclides (noble gases, iodine, cesium, tellurium). However, the amount of refractory elements (including actinides) emitted in the course of the Chernobyl accident was approximately four orders of magnitude higher than during the Fukushima accident. For Chernobyl, a total release of 5300 PBq (excluding noble gases) has been established as the most cited source term. For Fukushima, we estimated a total source term of 520 (340–800) PBq. In the course of the Fukushima accident, the majority of the radionuclides (more than 80%) was transported offshore and deposited in the Pacific Ocean. Monitoring campaigns after both accidents reveal that the environmental impact of the Chernobyl accident was much greater than of the Fukushima accident. Both the highly contaminated areas and the evacuated areas are smaller around Fukushima and the projected health effects in Japan are significantly lower than after the Chernobyl accident. This is mainly due to the fact that food safety campaigns and evacuations worked quickly and efficiently after the Fukushima accident. In contrast to Chernobyl, no fatalities due to acute radiation effects occurred in Fukushima. - Highlights: • The environmental effects of Chernobyl and Fukushima are compared. • Releases of radionuclides from Chernobyl exceeded Fukushima by an order of magnitude. • Chernobyl caused more severe radiation-related health effects. • Overall, Chernobyl was a much more severe nuclear accident than Fukushima. • Psychological effects are neglected but important consequences of nuclear accidents.

  18. Analysis of Construction Accidents in Turkey and Responsible Parties

    Science.gov (United States)

    GÜRCANLI, G. Emre; MÜNGEN, Uğur

    2013-01-01

    Construction is one of the world’s biggest industry that includes jobs as diverse as building, civil engineering, demolition, renovation, repair and maintenance. Construction workers are exposed to a wide variety of hazards. This study analyzes 1,117 expert witness reports which were submitted to criminal and labour courts. These reports are from all regions of the country and cover the period 1972–2008. Accidents were classified by the consequence of the incident, time and main causes of the accident, construction type, occupation of the victim, activity at time of the accident and party responsible for the accident. Falls (54.1%), struck by thrown/falling object (12.9%), structural collapses (9.9%) and electrocutions (7.5%) rank first four places. The accidents were most likely between the hours 15:00 and 17:00 (22.6%), 10:00–12:00 (18.7%) and just after the lunchtime (9.9%). Additionally, the most common accidents were further divided into sub-types. Expert-witness assessments were used to identify the parties at fault and what acts of negligence typically lead to accidents. Nearly two thirds of the faulty and negligent acts are carried out by the employers and employees are responsible for almost one third of all cases. PMID:24077446

  19. Occupational accidents aboard merchant ships

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, H.L.; Nielsen, D.; Frydenberg, Morten

    2002-01-01

    Objectives: To investigate the frequency, circumstances, and causes of occupational accidents aboard merchant ships in international trade, and to identify risk factors for the occurrence of occupational accidents as well as dangerous working situations where possible preventive measures may...... be initiated. Methods: The study is a historical follow up on occupational accidents among crew aboard Danish merchant ships in the period 1993–7. Data were extracted from the Danish Maritime Authority and insurance data. Exact data on time at risk were available. Results: A total of 1993 accidents were...... rate of accidents than Danish citizens. Age was a major risk factor for accidents causing permanent disability. Change of ship and the first period aboard a particular ship were identified as risk factors. Walking from one place to another aboard the ship caused serious accidents. The most serious...

  20. MELCOR modeling of Fukushima unit 2 accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sevon, Tuomo [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo (Finland)

    2014-12-15

    A MELCOR model of the Fukushima Daiichi unit 2 accident was created in order to get a better understanding of the event and to improve severe accident modeling methods. The measured pressure and water level could be reproduced relatively well with the calculation. This required adjusting the RCIC system flow rates and containment leak area so that a good match to the measurements is achieved. Modeling of gradual flooding of the torus room with water that originated from the tsunami was necessary for a satisfactory reproduction of the measured containment pressure. The reactor lower head did not fail in this calculation, and all the fuel remained in the RPV. 13 % of the fuel was relocated from the core area, and all the fuel rods lost their integrity, releasing at least some volatile radionuclides. According to the calculation, about 90 % of noble gas inventory and about 0.08 % of cesium inventory was released to the environment. The release started 78 h after the earthquake, and a second release peak came at 90 h. Uncertainties in the calculation are very large because there is scarce public data available about the Fukushima power plant and because it is not yet possible to inspect the status of the reactor and the containment. Uncertainty in the calculated cesium release is larger than factor of ten.

  1. [Drowning accidents in childhood].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krandick, G; Mantel, K

    1990-09-30

    This is a report on five boys aged between 1 and 5 years who, after prolonged submersion in cold water, were treated at our department. On being taken out of the water, all the patients were clinically dead. After 1- to 3-hour successful cardiopulmonary resuscitation, with a rectal temperature of about 27 degrees C, they were rewarmed at a rate of 1 degree/hour. Two patients died within a few hours after the accident. One patient survived with an apallic syndrome, 2 children survived with no sequelae. In the event of a water-related accident associated with hypothermia, we consider suitable resuscitation to have preference over rewarming measures. The most important treatment guidelines and prognostic factors are discussed.

  2. RENEB accident simulation exercise

    OpenAIRE

    Brzozowska, Beata; Ainsbury, Elizabeth; Baert, Annelot; Beaton-Green, Lindsay; Barrios, Leonardo; Barquinero, Joan Francesc; Bassinet, Celine; Beinke, Christina; Benedek, Anett; Beukes, Philip; Bortolin, Emanuela; Buraczewska, Iwona; Burbidge, Christopher; De Amicis, Andrea; De Angelis, Cinzia

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: The RENEB accident exercise was carried out in order to train the RENEB participants in coordinating and managing potentially large data sets that would be generated in case of a major radiological event. Materials and methods: Each participant was offered the possibility to activate the network by sending an alerting email about a simulated radiation emergency. The same participant had to collect, compile and report capacity, triage categorization and exposure scenario results ob...

  3. PREVENTION OF OCCUPATIONAL ACCIDENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jovica Jovanovic

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Medical services, physicians and nurses play an essential role in the plant safety program through primary treatment of injured workers and by helping to identify workplace hazards. The physician and nurse should participate in the worksite investigations to identify specific hazard or stresses potentially causing the occupational accidents and injuries and in planning the subsequent hazard control program. Physicians and nurses must work closely and cooperatively with supervisors to ensure the prompt reporting and treatment of all work related health and safety problems. Occupational accidents, work related injuries and fatalities result from multiple causes, affect different segments of the working population, and occur in a myriad of occupations and industrial settings. Multiple factors and risks contribute to traumatic injuries, such as hazardous exposures, workplace and process design, work organization and environment, economics, and other social factors. With such a diversity of theories, it will not be difficult to understand that there does not exist one single theory that is considered right or correct and is universally accepted. These theories are nonetheless necessary, but not sufficient, for developing a frame of reference for understanding accident occurrences. Prevention strategies are also varied, and multiple strategies may be applicable to many settings, including engineering controls, protective equipment and technologies, management commitment to and investment in safety, regulatory controls, and education and training. Research needs are thus broad, and the development and application of interventions involve many disciplines and organizations.

  4. Pattern extraction for high-risk accidents in the construction industry: a data-mining approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amiri, Mehran; Ardeshir, Abdollah; Fazel Zarandi, Mohammad Hossein; Soltanaghaei, Elahe

    2016-09-01

    Accidents involving falls and falling objects (group I) are highly frequent accidents in the construction industry. While being hit by a vehicle, electric shock, collapse in the excavation and fire or explosion accidents (group II) are much less frequent, they make up a considerable proportion of severe accidents. In this study, multiple-correspondence analysis, decision tree, ensembles of decision tree and association rules methods are employed to analyse a database of construction accidents throughout Iran between 2007 and 2011. The findings indicate that in group I, there is a significant correspondence among these variables: time of accident, place of accident, body part affected, final consequence of accident and lost workdays. Moreover, the frequency of accidents in the night shift is less than others, and the frequency of injury to the head, back, spine and limbs are more. In group II, the variables time of accident and body part affected are mostly related and the frequency of accidents among married and older workers is more than single and young workers. There was a higher frequency in the evening, night shifts and weekends. The results of this study are totally in line with the previous research.

  5. Choice & Consequence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khan, Azam

    between cause and effect in complex systems complicates decision making. To address this issue, we examine the central role that data-driven decision making could play in critical domains such as sustainability or medical treatment. We developed systems for exploratory data analysis and data visualization...... of data analysis and instructional interface design, to both simulation systems and decision support interfaces. We hope that projects such as these will help people to understand the link between their choices and the consequences of their decisions....

  6. Choice & Consequence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khan, Azam

    between cause and effect in complex systems complicates decision making. To address this issue, we examine the central role that data-driven decision making could play in critical domains such as sustainability or medical treatment. We developed systems for exploratory data analysis and data visualization...... of data analysis and instructional interface design, to both simulation systems and decision support interfaces. We hope that projects such as these will help people to understand the link between their choices and the consequences of their decisions....

  7. Forecasting consequences of accidental release: how reliable are current assessment models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rohwer, P.S.; Hoffman, F.O.; Miller, C.W.

    1983-01-01

    This paper focuses on uncertainties in model output used to assess accidents. We begin by reviewing the historical development of assessment models and the associated interest in uncertainties as these evolutionary processes occurred in the United States. This is followed by a description of the sources of uncertainties in assessment calculations. Types of models appropriate for assessment of accidents are identified. A summary of results from our analysis of uncertainty is provided in results obtained with current methodology for assessing routine and accidental radionuclide releases to the environment. We conclude with discussion of preferred procedures and suggested future directions to improve the state-of-the-art of radiological assessments.

  8. [Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident and Tokaimura criticality accident].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takada, Jun

    2012-03-01

    It is clear from inspection of historical incidents that the scale of disasters in a nuclear power plant accident is quite low level overwhelmingly compared with a nuclear explosion in nuclear war. Two cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki were destroyed by nuclear blast with about 20 kt TNT equivalent and then approximately 100,000 people have died respectively. On the other hand, the number of acute death is 30 in the Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident. In this chapter, we review health hazards and doses in two historical nuclear incidents of Chernobyl and Tokaimura criticality accident and then understand the feature of the radiation accident in peaceful utilization of nuclear power.

  9. Prediction of road accidents: A Bayesian hierarchical approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Deublein, Markus; Schubert, Matthias; Adey, Bryan T.;

    2013-01-01

    In this paper a novel methodology for the prediction of the occurrence of road accidents is presented. The methodology utilizes a combination of three statistical methods: (1) gamma-updating of the occurrence rates of injury accidents and injured road users, (2) hierarchical multivariate Poisson......-lognormal regression analysis taking into account correlations amongst multiple dependent model response variables and effects of discrete accident count data e.g. over-dispersion, and (3) Bayesian inference algorithms, which are applied by means of data mining techniques supported by Bayesian Probabilistic Networks...... in order to represent non-linearity between risk indicating and model response variables, as well as different types of uncertainties which might be present in the development of the specific models.Prior Bayesian Probabilistic Networks are first established by means of multivariate regression analysis...

  10. Psychoactive substance use and the risk of motor vehicle accidents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Movig, K.L.; Mathijssen, M.P.; Nagel, P.H.; van Egmond, T.; de Gier, J.J.; Leufkens, H.G.; Egberts, A.C.

    2004-01-01

    The driving performance is easily impaired as a consequence of the use of alcohol and/or licit and illicit drugs. However, the role of drugs other than alcohol in motor vehicle accidents has not been well established. The objective of this study was to estimate the association between psychoactive d

  11. Accounting for the cost of occupational accidents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rikhardsson, Pall M.

    2004-01-01

    consequences for the company. This, however, presents some challenges due to the current set up of many management accounting systems. The paper explores these issues in the context of the Systematic Accident Cost Analysis (SACA) project, which was carried out during 2001 by The Aarhus School of Business...... and PricewaterhouseCoopers Denmark with financial support from The Danish National Working Environment Authority. It focused on developing and testing a method for the evaluation of the occupational costs and how this might be linked to management accounting and control systems....

  12. Accounting for the cost of occupational accidents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rikhardsson, Pall M.

    2004-01-01

    consequences for the company. This, however, presents some challenges due to the current set up of many management accounting systems. The paper explores these issues in the context of the Systematic Accident Cost Analysis (SACA) project, which was carried out during 2001 by The Aarhus School of Business...... and PricewaterhouseCoopers Denmark with financial support from The Danish National Working Environment Authority. It focused on developing and testing a method for the evaluation of the occupational costs and how this might be linked to management accounting and control systems....

  13. Uncertainty assessment in quantitative risk analyses. Literature review; Usikkerhedsbeskrivelse i kvantitative risikoanalyser. Litteraturgennemgang

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-06-01

    Literature on uncertainty assessment for risk-analytical purposes has been compiled. Databases Inspec, Compendex, Energy Science and Technology, Chemical Abstracts, Chemical Safety Newsbase, HSEline and MathSci were searched. Roughly 80 references have been selected from these databases and divided according to the following uncertainty classes: 1. Statistical uncertainty; 2. Data uncertainty; 3. Presumption uncertainty; 4. Uncertainty of consequence models; 5. Cognitive uncertainty. (EG)

  14. Estimation of doses received by operators in the 1958 RB reactor accident using the MCNP5 computer code simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pešić Milan P.

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A numerical simulation of the radiological consequences of the RB reactor reactivity excursion accident, which occurred on October 15, 1958, and an estimation of the total doses received by the operators were run by the MCNP5 computer code. The simulation was carried out under the same assumptions as those used in the 1960 IAEA-organized experimental simulation of the accident: total fission energy of 80 MJ released in the accident and the frozen positions of the operators. The time interval of exposure to high doses received by the operators has been estimated. Data on the RB1/1958 reactor core relevant to the accident are given. A short summary of the accident scenario has been updated. A 3-D model of the reactor room and the RB reactor tank, with all the details of the core, created. For dose determination, 3-D simplified, homogenised, sexless and faceless phantoms, placed inside the reactor room, have been developed. The code was run for a number of neutron histories which have given a dose rate uncertainty of less than 2%. For the determination of radiation spectra escaping the reactor core and radiation interaction in the tissue of the phantoms, the MCNP5 code was run (in the KCODE option and “mode n p e”, with a 55-group neutron spectra, 35-group gamma ray spectra and a 10-group electron spectra. The doses were determined by using the conversion of flux density (obtained by the F4 tally in the phantoms to doses using factors taken from ICRP-74 and from the deposited energy of neutrons and gamma rays (obtained by the F6 tally in the phantoms’ tissue. A rough estimation of the time moment when the odour of ozone was sensed by the operators is estimated for the first time and given in Appendix A.1. Calculated total absorbed and equivalent doses are compared to the previously reported ones and an attempt to understand and explain the reasons for the obtained differences has been made. A Root Cause Analysis of the accident was done and

  15. Measuring Risk Aversion for Nuclear Power Plant Accident: Results of Contingent Valuation Survey in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    Within the evaluation of the external cost of nuclear energy, the estimation of the external cost of nuclear power plant (NPP) severe accident is one of the major topics to be addressed. For the evaluation of the external cost of NPP severe accident, the effect of public risk averse behavior against the group accidents, such as NPP accident, dam failure, must be addressed. Although the equivalent fatalities from a single group accident are not common and its risk is very small compared to other accidents, people perceive the group accident more seriously. In other words, people are more concerned about low probability/high consequence events than about high probability/low consequence events having the same mean damage. One of the representative method to integrate the risk aversion in the external costs of severe nuclear reactor accidents was developed by Eeckoudt et al., and he used the risk aversion coefficient, mainly based on the analysis of financial risks in the stock markets to evaluate the external cost of nuclear severe accident. However, the use of financial risk aversion coefficient to nuclear severe accidents is not appropriate, because financial risk and nuclear severe accident risk are entirely different. In this paper, the individual-level survey was conducted to measure the risk aversion coefficient and estimate the multiplication factor to integrate the risk aversion in the external costs of NPP severe accident. This study propose an integrated framework on estimation of the external cost associated with severe accidents of NPP considering public risk aversion behavior. The theoretical framework to estimate the risk aversion coefficient/multiplication factor and to assess economic damages from a hypothetical NPP accident was constructed. Based on the theoretical framework, the risk aversion coefficient can be analyzed by conducting public survey with a carefully designed lottery questions. Compared to the previous studies on estimation of the

  16. Occupational accidents with piercing and cutting instruments in hospital nurses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Helena Palucci Marziale

    2004-02-01

    Full Text Available Goals: To identify factors associated with occupational accidents caused by piercing and cutting instruments and to identify the consequences of these accidents.Methods: Descriptive field research. Data were obtained through semi-structured interviews with nurses who suffered accidents during one year in four hospitals at São Paulo State - Brazil. Results: factors associated with accidents were: work overload, poor quality material, inadequate disposal materials, professional negligence, clients’ aggressiveness, lack of attention and use of unsheathed needles. The accidents caused financial damages to the institutions as well as emotional and physical impairments to workers. Conclusions: There are several factors associated with accidents with piercing and cutting instruments. Therefore, preventive measures must be implemented according to the peculiarities of each work environment. Better care should be taken with the preparation of the professionals as well as with the information on risks from exposure to body/blood fluids they are given. A specific legislation is needed in our country in order to minimize this problem.

  17. An analysis on the severe accident progression with operator recovery actions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vo, T.H. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, 989-111 Daedeok-daero, Yuseong-gu, Daejon 305-353 (Korea, Republic of); Korea University of Science and Technology (UST), 217 Gajeong-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-333 (Korea, Republic of); Song, J.H., E-mail: dosa@kaeri.re.kr [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, 989-111 Daedeok-daero, Yuseong-gu, Daejon 305-353 (Korea, Republic of); Korea University of Science and Technology (UST), 217 Gajeong-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-333 (Korea, Republic of); Kim, T.W.; Kim, D.H. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, 989-111 Daedeok-daero, Yuseong-gu, Daejon 305-353 (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-12-15

    Highlights: • Severe accident progression for the station blackout and SBLOCA accident. • Analyses on APR1400 using MELCOR. • Operator recovery actions for decay heat removal and inventory make up. • Determine the time allowed for the operator to prevent reactor vessel failure. • Insight for the operator recovery actions for the severe accident management. - Abstract: Analyses on the severe accident progressions for the station blackout (SBO) accident and small break LOCA (SBLOCA) initiated severe accident were performed for APR1400 by using MELCOR computer code. Operator recovery actions for decay heat removal and inventory make up using a depressurization system and safety injection pump were simulated in parallel with a simulation of the severe accident progression. Sensitivity studies on the operator actions were performed to investigate the changes in the timing of the reactor vessel failure and to determine the time allowed for the operator to prevent reactor vessel failure. Sensitivity analyses on the effect of major modeling parameters were performed additionally to quantify the uncertainties in timing. It is found that the operator has about 2 h for the recovery actions after the indication of core damage by the signal of core exit thermocouple (CET) for the SBLOCA initiated severe accident, while the operator has to take immediate actions after the indication of core damage by CET for the SBO accident.

  18. A scenario-based modeling approach for emergency evacuation management and risk analysis under multiple uncertainties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Y; Huang, G H; Guo, L; Li, Y P; Dai, C; Wang, X W; Sun, W

    2013-02-15

    Nuclear emergency evacuation is important to prevent radioactive harms by hazardous materials and to limit the accidents' consequences; however, uncertainties are involved in the components and processes of such a management system. In the study, an interval-parameter joint-probabilistic integer programming (IJIP) method is developed for emergency evacuation management under uncertainties. Optimization techniques of interval-parameter programming (IPP) and joint-probabilistic constrained (JPC) programming are incorporated into an integer linear programming framework, so that the approach can deal with uncertainties expressed as joint probability and interval values. The IJIP method can schedule the optimal routes to guarantee the maximum population evacuated away from the effected zone during a finite time. Furthermore, it can also facilitate post optimization analysis to enhance robustness in controlling system violation risk imposed on the joint-probabilistic constraints. The developed method has been applied to a case study of nuclear emergency management; meanwhile, a number of scenarios under different system conditions have been analyzed. It is indicated that the solutions are useful for evacuation management practices. The result of the IJIP method can not only help to raise the capability of disaster responses in a systematic manner, but also provide an insight into complex relationships among evacuation planning, resources utilizations, policy requirements and system risks.

  19. Radiation accident grips Goiania

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roberts, L.

    1987-11-20

    On 13 September two young scavengers in Goiania, Brazil, removed a stainless steel cylinder from a cancer therapy machine in an abandoned clinic, touching off a radiation accident second only to Chernobyl in its severity. On 18 September they sold the cylinder, the size of a 1-gallon paint can, to a scrap dealer for $25. At the junk yard an employee dismantled the cylinder and pried open the platinum capsule inside to reveal a glowing blue salt-like substance - 1400 curies of cesium-137. Fascinated by the luminescent powder, several people took it home with them. Some children reportedly rubbed in on their bodies like carnival glitter - an eerie image of how wrong things can go when vigilance over radioactive materials lapses. In all, 244 people in Goiania, a city of 1 million in central Brazil, were contaminated. The eventual toll, in terms of cancer or genetic defects, cannot yet be estimated. Parts of the city are cordoned off as radiation teams continue washing down buildings and scooping up radioactive soil. The government is also grappling with the political fallout from the accident.

  20. The consequences of "Culture's consequences"

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Fabienne; Loloma Froholdt, Lisa

    2009-01-01

    , but it may also have unintentional outcomes. It may lead to a deterministic view of other cultures, thereby reinforcing prejudices and underestimating other forms of differences; it risks blinding the participants of the specific context of a given communicative situation. The article opens with a critical...... review of the theory of Geert Hofstede, the most renowned representative of this theoretical approach. The practical consequences of using such a concept of culture is then analysed by means of a critical review of an article applying Hofstede to cross-cultural crews in seafaring. Finally, alternative...... views on culture are presented. The aim of the article is, rather than to promote any specific theory, to reflect about diverse perspectives of cultural sense-making in cross-cultural encounters. Udgivelsesdato: Oktober...

  1. [Psychological support for road accident participants: the program implementation outcome].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikuczewska-Wośko, Aleksandra; Biłyj, Dorota; Tomczyk, Jarosław

    2009-01-01

    Road accident belongs to one of the categories of traumatic events, and can cause posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). The most common psychological consequences of road traffic accidents are the emotional disorders, cognitive deficits (disorders concentration of attention and memory function), impaired social relationships, troubles with performing work duties and physical symp-toms of stress. The article discusses the program of psychological support given to the participants of road accidents, conducted in Wroclaw, its theoretical assumptions and the mode of its implementation. Basic theoretical assumptions of the program are inter alia based on the theories of H. Selye and R. Lazarus. The authors of this article also refer to the so-called therapeutic process of education designed by Everly and Rosenfeld, who recommend that the process of developing self-responsibility be used for therapeutic purposes. This requires clarifying the exact nature of the problem, and then looking for possible remedies. The program is open to all road accident participants (victims, perpetrators, witnesses) and their families. Classes are designed to combine theory (lectures) and practice (exercises). Anxiety and cognitive processes, as well as relaxation training, interpersonal training (eg, assertiveness) and kinesiology are the major areas of activities. Psychological support provided for road accident participants is of intervention--and preventive nature; intervention, as it relates to the consequences ofa specific stressogenic event, namely a road accident; preventive, as it serves the overriding purpose--the improvement of road safety. This article presents the main findings of the program, the results of the survey evaluation, and proposals to develop psychological operations aimed at the road accidents participants.

  2. Prediction of road accidents: A Bayesian hierarchical approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deublein, Markus; Schubert, Matthias; Adey, Bryan T; Köhler, Jochen; Faber, Michael H

    2013-03-01

    In this paper a novel methodology for the prediction of the occurrence of road accidents is presented. The methodology utilizes a combination of three statistical methods: (1) gamma-updating of the occurrence rates of injury accidents and injured road users, (2) hierarchical multivariate Poisson-lognormal regression analysis taking into account correlations amongst multiple dependent model response variables and effects of discrete accident count data e.g. over-dispersion, and (3) Bayesian inference algorithms, which are applied by means of data mining techniques supported by Bayesian Probabilistic Networks in order to represent non-linearity between risk indicating and model response variables, as well as different types of uncertainties which might be present in the development of the specific models. Prior Bayesian Probabilistic Networks are first established by means of multivariate regression analysis of the observed frequencies of the model response variables, e.g. the occurrence of an accident, and observed values of the risk indicating variables, e.g. degree of road curvature. Subsequently, parameter learning is done using updating algorithms, to determine the posterior predictive probability distributions of the model response variables, conditional on the values of the risk indicating variables. The methodology is illustrated through a case study using data of the Austrian rural motorway network. In the case study, on randomly selected road segments the methodology is used to produce a model to predict the expected number of accidents in which an injury has occurred and the expected number of light, severe and fatally injured road users. Additionally, the methodology is used for geo-referenced identification of road sections with increased occurrence probabilities of injury accident events on a road link between two Austrian cities. It is shown that the proposed methodology can be used to develop models to estimate the occurrence of road accidents for any

  3. Variation of radiological consequences under various weather conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Xinhe; Homma, Toshimitsu [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment

    2001-08-01

    Stratified sampling method of determining weather sequences is widely used in Probabilistic Safety Assessment Level-3 calculations with an intention to predict the complete spectrum of the accident consequences. Intensive calculations were performed for every weather bin in order to get a general view of consequence variation in response to the indices used in the weather bin categorization procedures. The results of this case study demonstrated that there must be important factors, such as time-integrals of meteorological parameters other than initial weather conditions, which might influence the consequences for a given accident. Further improvement is needed for the choice of criteria for grouping weather sequences in the stratified sampling scheme. (author)

  4. Non-scalar uncertainty: Uncertainty in dynamic systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, Salvador Gutierrez

    1992-01-01

    The following point is stated throughout the paper: dynamic systems are usually subject to uncertainty, be it the unavoidable quantic uncertainty when working with sufficiently small scales or when working in large scales uncertainty can be allowed by the researcher in order to simplify the problem, or it can be introduced by nonlinear interactions. Even though non-quantic uncertainty can generally be dealt with by using the ordinary probability formalisms, it can also be studied with the proposed non-scalar formalism. Thus, non-scalar uncertainty is a more general theoretical framework giving insight into the nature of uncertainty and providing a practical tool in those cases in which scalar uncertainty is not enough, such as when studying highly nonlinear dynamic systems. This paper's specific contribution is the general concept of non-scalar uncertainty and a first proposal for a methodology. Applications should be based upon this methodology. The advantage of this approach is to provide simpler mathematical models for prediction of the system states. Present conventional tools for dealing with uncertainty prove insufficient for an effective description of some dynamic systems. The main limitations are overcome abandoning ordinary scalar algebra in the real interval (0, 1) in favor of a tensor field with a much richer structure and generality. This approach gives insight into the interpretation of Quantum Mechanics and will have its most profound consequences in the fields of elementary particle physics and nonlinear dynamic systems. Concepts like 'interfering alternatives' and 'discrete states' have an elegant explanation in this framework in terms of properties of dynamic systems such as strange attractors and chaos. The tensor formalism proves especially useful to describe the mechanics of representing dynamic systems with models that are closer to reality and have relatively much simpler solutions. It was found to be wise to get an approximate solution to an

  5. Fatal motorcycle accidents and alcohol

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, C F; Hardt-Madsen, M

    1987-01-01

    A series of fatal motorcycle accidents from a 7-year period (1977-1983) has been analyzed. Of the fatalities 30 were operators of the motorcycle, 11 pillion passengers and 8 counterparts. Of 41 operators 37% were sober at the time of accident, 66% had measurable blood alcohol concentration (BAC...

  6. [Practical management of CPB accident].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Depoix, J-P; Fenet, L; Provenchere, S

    2012-05-01

    Accident of CPB is a reality. It is important to be prepared for discussion with the family, with the hospital administration, eventually with the justice. But we have also to support perfusionnist and anesthetic team in charge of the patient during accident.

  7. Traffic Accidents on Slippery Roads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fonnesbech, J. K.; Bolet, Lars

    2014-01-01

    Police registrations from 65 accidents on slippery roads in normally Danish winters have been studied. The study showed: • 1 accident per 100 km when using brine spread with nozzles • 2 accidents per 100 km when using pre wetted salt • 3 accidents per 100 km when using kombi spreaders The results...... of accidents in normally Danish winter seasons are remarkable alike the amount of salt used in praxis in the winter 2011/2012. • 2.7 ton NaCl/km when using brine spread with nozzles • 5 ton NaCl/km when using pre wetted salt. • 5.7 ton NaCl/km when using kombi spreaders The explanation is that spreading...

  8. Corporate Cost of Occupational Accidents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rikhardsson, Pall M.; Impgaard, M.

    2004-01-01

    method could be used in all of the companies without revisions. The evaluation of accident cost showed that 2/3 of the costs of occupational accidents are visible in the Danish corporate accounting systems reviewed while 1/3 is hidden from management view. The highest cost of occupational accidents......The systematic accident cost analysis (SACA) project was carried out during 2001 by The Aarhus School of Business and PricewaterhouseCoopers Denmark with financial support from The Danish National Working Environment Authority. Its focused on developing and testing a method for evaluating...... occupational costs of companies for use by occupational health and safety professionals. The method was tested in nine Danish companies within three different industry sectors and the costs of 27 selected occupational accidents in these companies were calculated. One of the main conclusions is that the SACA...

  9. Verification of uncertainty budgets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heydorn, Kaj; Madsen, B.S.

    2005-01-01

    The quality of analytical results is expressed by their uncertainty, as it is estimated on the basis of an uncertainty budget; little effort is, however, often spent on ascertaining the quality of the uncertainty budget. The uncertainty budget is based on circumstantial or historical data, and th...

  10. Environmental Aftermath of the Radiation Accident at Tomsk-7

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porfiriev, Boris N.; Porfiriev, Boris N.

    1996-01-01

    An analysis is presented of the environmental effects of the most serious radiation accident recorded after Chernobyl, which occurred in the formerly secret town of Tomsk-7 in Siberia, Russia, on 6, April 1993. Fortunately, it appears not to have become a major industrial crisis or disaster. The causes of the accident are described. It is argued that a mixture of both objective and subjective prerequisites, including specific human, organizational, and technological factors, were responsible for the explosion or directly facilitated it. The Tomsk-7 accident’s ecological, medical, social, and psychological consequences are discussed.

  11. Evacuation areas for transportation accidents involving propellant tank pressure bursts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siewert, R. D.

    1972-01-01

    Evacuation areas are defined for those transportation accidents where volatile chemical propellant tanks are exposed to fire in the wreckage and eventually explode with consequent risks from fragments in surrounding populated areas. An evacuation area with a minimum radius of 600 m is recommended to limit the statistical probability of fatality to one in 100 such accidents. The result of this study was made possible by the derivation of a distribution function of distances reached by fragments from bursting chemical car tanks. Data concerning fragments were obtained from reports of tank car pressure bursts between 1958 and 1971.

  12. Typologie des Accidents Cyclistes

    OpenAIRE

    Amoros, Emmanuelle; BILLOT-GRASSET, Alice; Hours, Martine

    2015-01-01

    L'usage du vélo est en hausse en ville ; cette pratique est encouragée dans le cadre du développement durable et de la lutte contre la sédentarité. Pour accompagner cela, il faut réduire les risques d'accident, et pour ce faire, mieux les connaître. Nous utilisons le Registre des victimes de la circulation routière du Rhône, basé sur les services hospitaliers (dont les urgences) ; il est quasi-exhaustif : env. 1100 blessés à vélo/an versus 120 dans les données officielles. L'ensemble des cycl...

  13. Application of the Severe Accident Code ATHLET-CD. Coolant injection to primary circuit of a PWR by mobile pump system in case of SBLOCA severe accident scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jobst, Matthias; Wilhelm, Polina; Kliem, Soeren; Kozmenkov, Yaroslav [Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf e.V., Dresden (Germany). Reactor Safety

    2017-06-01

    The improvement of the safety of nuclear power plants is a continuously on-going process. The analysis of transients and accidents is an important research topic, which significantly contributes to safety enhancements of existing power plants. In case of an accident with multiple failures of safety systems, core uncovery and heat-up can occur. In order to prevent the accident to turn into a severe one or to mitigate the consequences of severe accidents, different accident management measures can be applied. By means of numerical analyses performed with the compute code ATHLET-CD, the effectiveness of coolant injection with a mobile pump system into the primary circuit of a PWR was studied. According to the analyses, such a system can stop the melt progression if it is activated prior to 10 % of total core is molten.

  14. Why did the patient die? The relationship between ambulance accidents and death of patients: forensic medical issues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ersoy, Gokhan; Ersoy, Ozlem; Yuksekbas, Ozlem; Kurnaz, Gulay; Akyildiz, Elif Ulker; Ekemen, Suheyla

    2012-11-01

    This article's aim is investigating traumatic consequences of ambulance accident on patients and discussing difficulties to give a decision about the relation between death and accident at these cases. The cases were selected among the forensic medical reports concluded between 1996 and 2005 years. They were documented for age, sex, causes of urgent call, localization and extent of traumatic lesion, properties of events and board decisions. A total of 21 cases were found. 15 cases died on the day of the accident. Skin injuries at head (8 cases) and legs (6 cases) were most common traumatic lesions. Totally 6 deaths were found related with ambulance accident. Death of patient after ambulance accidents may not be associated easily to the accident. Delay due to accident or concomitant contributing medical conditions may also facilitate the death in this type of cases. Reliable medical records were needed for accurate medicolegal evaluation.

  15. The use of Grey System Theory in predicting the road traffic accident in Fars province in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Mohammadi

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Traffic accidents have become a more and more important factor that restrict the development of economy and threaten the safety of human beings. Considering the complexity and uncertainty of the influencing factors on traffic accidents, traffic accident forecasting can be regarded as a grey system with unknown and known information, so be analyzed by grey system theory. Grey models require only a limited amount of data to estimate the behavior of unknown systems. In this paper, first, the original predicted values of road traffic accidents are separately obtained by the GM (1,1 model, the Verhulst model and the DGM(2,1 model. The results of these models on predicting road traffic accident show that the forecasting accuracy of the GM(1,1 is higher than the Verhulst model and the DGM(2,1 model. Then, the GM(1,1 model is applied to predict road traffic accident in Fars province.

  16. Rising and boiling of a drop of volatile liquid in a heavier one: application to the LMFBR severe accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pigny, Sylvain L.; Coste, Pierre F. [DEN/DER/SSTH, CEA/Grenoble, 38054 Grenoble Cedex 9 (France)

    2005-07-01

    Full text of publication follows: The rising and, simultaneously the boiling, of a droplet of volatile liquid in a heavier one is computation-ally investigated. Our calculations are performed with the help of the SIMMER code, in which a specific DNS algorithm is developed, to represent surface tension between the different media in an explicit way. This is required to represent the physical contact that occurs between two liquids and the vapor from the lighter one, since interfacial heat transfers, and therefore boiling kinetics, merely depend on it. The behavior of the three fluids system is of interest as a key phenomenon related to the transition phase of LMFBR severe accidents, before the formation of a fully developed bubble column. The driven force due to the boiling of steel drops can play a major role in the relocation, and, consequently, the recriticality of UO{sub 2} fuel. The problem is investigated focusing first on analytical experiments, built-up with simulating materials, and for which accurate experimental results are provided. The dependence of results with regard to thermodynamical and physical properties is underlined. This point is of interest in view of some uncertainties in the knowledge of data concerning the materials present in the reactor at high temperature. The pressure level is a key parameter in the accident scenarios: its influence is uppermost on the volumic mass of the gas. It is also outlined. (authors)

  17. REAC/TS Radiation Accident Registry: An Overview

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doran M. Christensen, DO, REAC/TS Associate Director and Staff Physician Becky Murdock, REAC/TS Registry and Health Physics Technician

    2012-12-12

    Over the past four years, REAC/TS has presented a number of case reports from its Radiation Accident Registry. Victims of radiological or nuclear incidents must meet certain dose criteria for an incident to be categorized as an “accident” and be included in the registry. Although the greatest numbers of “accidents” in the United States that have been entered into the registry involve radiation devices, the greater percentage of serious accidents have involved sealed sources of one kind or another. But if one looks at the kinds of accident scenarios that have resulted in extreme consequence, i.e., death, the greater share of deaths has occurred in medical settings.

  18. Injuries are not accidents: towards a culture of prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonilla-Escobar, Francisco Javier; Gutiérrez, María Isabel

    2014-01-01

    Injuries are the result of an acute exposure to exhort of energy or a consequence of a deficiency in a vital element that exceeds physiological thresholds resulting threatens life. They are classified as intentional or unintentional. Injuries are considered a global health issue because they cause more than 5 million deaths per year worldwide and they are an important contributor to the burden of disease, especially affecting people of low socioeconomic status in low- and middle-income countries. A common misconception exists where injuries are thought to be the same as accidents; however, accidents are largely used as chance events, without taken in consideration that all these are preventable. This review discusses injuries and accidents in the context of road traffic and emphasizes injuries as preventable events. An understanding of the essence of injuries enables the standardization of terminology in public use and facilitates the development of a culture of prevention among all of us.

  19. Radioecological assessment of marine environment: complexity, sensitivity and uncertainties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iosjpe, Mikhail [Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority, P.O. Box 55, N-1332 Oesteraas (Norway)

    2014-07-01

    A compartment modelling approach is widely used to evaluate the consequences after the release of radionuclides into the marine environment, by taking into account: (i) dispersion of radionuclides in water and sediment phases, (ii) bioaccumulation of radionuclides in biota and (iii) dose assessments for marine organisms and human populations. The NRPA box model includes site-specific information for the compartments, advection of radioactivity between compartments, sedimentation, diffusion of radioactivity through pore water in sediment, resuspension, mixing due to bioturbation, particle mixing, a burial process for radionuclides in deep sediment layers and radioactive decay. The contamination of biota is calculated from the known radionuclide concentrations in filtered seawater in the different water regions. Doses to man are calculated on the basis of seafood consumption, in accordance with available data for seafood catches and assumptions about human diet in the respective areas. Dose to biota is calculated on the basis of radionuclide concentrations in marine organisms, water and sediment, using dose conversion factors. This modelling approach requires the use of a large set of parameters (up to several thousand), some of which have high uncertainties linked to them. This work consists of two parts: A radioecological assessment as described above, and a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, which was applied to two release scenarios: (i) a potential accident with a nuclear submarine and (ii) unit uniform atmospheric deposition to selected marine areas. The sensitivity and uncertainty analysis is based on the calculation of local and global sensitivity indexes, and then compare this approach to the Monte-Carlo Methods. The simulations clearly demonstrate the complexities encountered when using the compartment modelling approach. It is shown that the results can strongly depend on the time being analyzed. For example, the change of a given parameter may either

  20. Mathematical modeling of a survey-meter used to measure radioactivity in human thyroids: Monte Carlo calculations of the device response and uncertainties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khrutchinsky, Arkady; Drozdovitch, Vladimir; Kutsen, Semion; Minenko, Victor; Khrouch, Valeri; Luckyanov, Nickolas; Voillequé, Paul; Bouville, André

    2012-04-01

    This paper presents results of Monte Carlo modeling of the SRP-68-01 survey meter used to measure exposure rates near the thyroid glands of persons exposed to radioactivity following the Chernobyl accident. This device was not designed to measure radioactivity in humans. To estimate the uncertainty associated with the measurement results, a mathematical model of the SRP-68-01 survey meter was developed and verified. A Monte Carlo method of numerical simulation of radiation transport has been used to calculate the calibration factor for the device and evaluate its uncertainty. The SRP-68-01 survey meter scale coefficient, an important characteristic of the device, was also estimated in this study. The calibration factors of the survey meter were calculated for (131)I, (132)I, (133)I, and (135)I content in the thyroid gland for six age groups of population: newborns; children aged 1 yr, 5 yr, 10 yr, 15 yr; and adults. A realistic scenario of direct thyroid measurements with an "extended" neck was used to calculate the calibration factors for newborns and one-year-olds. Uncertainties in the device calibration factors due to variability of the device scale coefficient, variability in thyroid mass and statistical uncertainty of Monte Carlo method were evaluated. Relative uncertainties in the calibration factor estimates were found to be from 0.06 for children aged 1 yr to 0.1 for 10-yr and 15-yr children. The positioning errors of the detector during measurements deviate mainly in one direction from the estimated calibration factors. Deviations of the device position from the proper geometry of measurements were found to lead to overestimation of the calibration factor by up to 24 percent for adults and up to 60 percent for 1-yr children. The results of this study improve the estimates of (131)I thyroidal content and, consequently, thyroid dose estimates that are derived from direct thyroid measurements performed in Belarus shortly after the Chernobyl accident.

  1. External Cost Assessment of Nuclear Power Plant Accident considering Public Risk Aversion Behavior: the Korean Case

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    The conventional approach for monetary valuation of NPP accident consequence consists of calculating the expected value of various accident scenarios. However, the main criticism of the conventional approach is that there is a discrepancy between the social acceptability of the risk and the estimated expected value of NPP accident. Therefore, an integrated framework for the estimation of the external cost associated with an NPP accident considering the public risk aversion behavior was proposed in this study based on the constructed theoretical framework for estimating both the value of statistical life (VSL) and the risk aversion coefficient associated with an NPP accident to take account of the accident cost into the unit electricity generation cost of NPP. To estimate both parameters, an individual-level survey was conducted on a sample of 1,364 participants in Korea. Based on the collected survey responses, both parameters were estimated based on the proposed framework and the external cost of NPP accident was estimated based on the consequence analysis and considering the direct cost factors for NPP accident. Internalization of external costs into the comprehensive energy production cost has been considered as a potentially efficient policy instrument for a more sustainable energy supply and use. However, the internalization of externalities, such as public health damage, have raised a number of generic policy issues in a nuclear energy sector, with specific challenges resulting from the distinct characteristics of external cost estimation. Especially, the major challenge remained to address the public safety concerns regarding a nuclear accident, which can be specified as low-probability high-consequence accident, driven by the aspects of public risk aversion.

  2. Critical loads - assessment of uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barkman, A.

    1998-10-01

    The effects of data uncertainty in applications of the critical loads concept were investigated on different spatial resolutions in Sweden and northern Czech Republic. Critical loads of acidity (CL) were calculated for Sweden using the biogeochemical model PROFILE. Three methods with different structural complexity were used to estimate the adverse effects of S0{sub 2} concentrations in northern Czech Republic. Data uncertainties in the calculated critical loads/levels and exceedances (EX) were assessed using Monte Carlo simulations. Uncertainties within cumulative distribution functions (CDF) were aggregated by accounting for the overlap between site specific confidence intervals. Aggregation of data uncertainties within CDFs resulted in lower CL and higher EX best estimates in comparison with percentiles represented by individual sites. Data uncertainties were consequently found to advocate larger deposition reductions to achieve non-exceedance based on low critical loads estimates on 150 x 150 km resolution. Input data were found to impair the level of differentiation between geographical units at all investigated resolutions. Aggregation of data uncertainty within CDFs involved more constrained confidence intervals for a given percentile. Differentiation as well as identification of grid cells on 150 x 150 km resolution subjected to EX was generally improved. Calculation of the probability of EX was shown to preserve the possibility to differentiate between geographical units. Re-aggregation of the 95%-ile EX on 50 x 50 km resolution generally increased the confidence interval for each percentile. Significant relationships were found between forest decline and the three methods addressing risks induced by S0{sub 2} concentrations. Modifying S0{sub 2} concentrations by accounting for the length of the vegetation period was found to constitute the most useful trade-off between structural complexity, data availability and effects of data uncertainty. Data

  3. Pressure Load Analysis during Severe Accidents for the Evaluation of Late Containment Failure in OPR-1000

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, S. Y.; Ahn, K. I. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-05-15

    The MAAP code is a system level computer code capable of performing integral analyses of potential severe accident progressions in nuclear power plants, whose main purpose is to support a level 2 probabilistic safety assessment or severe accident management strategy developments. The code employs lots of user-options for supporting a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The present application is mainly focused on determining an estimate of the containment building pressure load caused by severe accident sequences. Key modeling parameters and phenomenological models employed for the present uncertainty analysis are closely related to in-vessel hydrogen generation, gas combustion in the containment, corium distribution in the containment after a reactor vessel failure, corium coolability in the reactor cavity, and molten-corium interaction with concrete. The phenomenology of severe accidents is extremely complex. In this paper, a sampling-based phenomenological uncertainty analysis was performed to statistically quantify uncertainties associated with the pressure load of a containment building for a late containment failure evaluation, based on the key modeling parameters employed in the MAAP code and random samples for those parameters. Phenomenological issues surrounding the late containment failure mode are highly complex. Included are the pressurization owing to steam generation in the cavity, molten corium-concrete interaction, late hydrogen burn in the containment, and the secondary heat removal availability. The methodology and calculation results can be applied for the optimum assessment of a late containment failure model. The accident sequences considered were a loss of coolant accidents and loss of offsite accidents expected in the OPR-1000 plant. As a result, uncertainties addressed in the pressure load of the containment building were quantified as a function of time. A realistic evaluation of the mean and variance estimates provides a more complete

  4. [Prevention of bicycle accidents].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zwipp, H; Barthel, P; Bönninger, J; Bürkle, H; Hagemeister, C; Hannawald, L; Huhn, R; Kühn, M; Liers, H; Maier, R; Otte, D; Prokop, G; Seeck, A; Sturm, J; Unger, T

    2015-04-01

    For a very precise analysis of all injured bicyclists in Germany it would be important to have definitions for "severely injured", "seriously injured" and "critically injured". By this, e.g., two-thirds of surgically treated bicyclists who are not registered by the police could become available for a general analysis. Elderly bicyclists (> 60 years) are a minority (10 %) but represent a majority (50 %) of all fatalities. They profit most by wearing a helmet and would be less injured by using special bicycle bags, switching on their hearing aids and following all traffic rules. E-bikes are used more and more (145 % more in 2012 vs. 2011) with 600,000 at the end of 2011 and are increasingly involved in accidents but still have a lack of legislation. So even for pedelecs 45 with 500 W and a possible speed of 45 km/h there is still no legislative demand for the use of a protecting helmet. 96 % of all injured cyclists in Germany had more than 0.5 ‰ alcohol in their blood, 86 % more than 1.1 ‰ and 59 % more than 1.7 ‰. Fatalities are seen in 24.2 % of cases without any collision partner. Therefore the ADFC calls for a limit of 1.1 ‰. Some virtual studies conclude that integrated sensors in bicycle helmets which would interact with sensors in cars could prevent collisions or reduce the severity of injury by stopping the cars automatically. Integrated sensors in cars with opening angles of 180° enable about 93 % of all bicyclists to be detected leading to a high rate of injury avoidance and/or mitigation. Hanging lamps reduce with 35 % significantly bicycle accidents for children, traffic education for children and special trainings for elderly bicyclists are also recommended as prevention tools. As long as helmet use for bicyclists in Germany rates only 9 % on average and legislative orders for using a helmet will not be in force in the near future, coming up campaigns seem to be necessary to be promoted by the Deutscher

  5. Iodine behaviour in severe accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dutton, L.M.C.; Grindon, E.; Handy, B.J.; Sutherland, L. [NNC Ltd., Knutsford (United Kingdom); Bruns, W.G.; Sims, H.E. [AEA Technology, Harwell (United Kingdom); Dickinson, S. [AEA Technology, Winfrith (United Kingdom); Hueber, C.; Jacquemain, D. [IPSN/CEA, Cadarache, Saint Paul-Lez-Durance (France)

    1996-12-01

    A description is given of analyses which identify which aspects of the modelling and data are most important in evaluating the release of radioactive iodine to the environment following a potential severe accident at a PWR and which identify the major uncertainties which affect that release. Three iodine codes are used namely INSPECT, IODE and IMPAIR, and their predictions are compared with those of the PSA code MAAP. INSPECT is a mechanistic code which models iodine behaviour in the aqueous aerosol, spray water and sump water, and the partitioning of volatile species between the aqueous phases and containment gas space. Organic iodine is not modelled. IODE and IMPAIR are semi-empirical codes which do not model iodine behaviour in the aqueous aerosol, but model organic iodine. The fault sequences addressed are based on analyses for the Sizewell `B` design. Two types of sequence have been analysed.: (a) those in which a major release of fission products from the primary circuit to the containment occur, e.g. a large LOCAS, (b) those where the release by-passes the containment, e.g. a leak into the auxiliary building. In the analysis of the LOCA sequences where the pH of the sump is controlled to be a value of 8 or greater, all three codes predict that the oxidation of iodine to produce gas phase species does not make a significant contribution to the source term due to leakage from the reactor building and that the latter is dominated by iodide in the aerosol. In the case where the pH of the sump is not controlled, it is found that the proportion of gas phase iodine increases significantly, although the cumulative leakage predicted by all three codes is not significantly different from that predicted by MAAP. The radiolytic production of nitric acid could be a major factor in determining the pH, and if the pH were reduced, the codes predict an increase in gas phase iodine species leaked from the containment. (author) 4 figs., 7 tabs., 13 refs.

  6. Aerosol Sample Inhomogeneity with Debris from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gomez, Reynaido; Biegalski, Steven R.; Woods, Vincent T.

    2014-09-01

    Radionuclide aerosol sampling is a vital component in the detection of nuclear explosions, nuclear accidents, and other radiation releases. This was proven by the detection and tracking of emissions from the Fukushima Daiichi incident across the globe by IMS stations. Two separate aerosol samplers were operated in Richland, WA following the event and debris from the accident were measured at levels well above detection limits. While the atmospheric activity concentration of radionuclides generally compared well between the two stations, they did not agree within uncertainties. This paper includes a detailed study of the aerosol sample homogeneity of 134Cs and 137Cs, then relates it to the overall uncertainty of the original measurement. Our results show that sample inhomogeneity adds an additional 5–10% uncertainty to each aerosol measurement and that this uncertainty is in the same range as the discrepancies between the two aerosol sample measurements from Richland, WA.

  7. Woodworking injuries: a comparative study of work-related and hobby-related accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loisel, F; Bonin, S; Jeunet, L; Pauchot, J; Tropet, Y; Obert, L

    2014-10-01

    The primary objective of this study was to describe the injury characteristics and demographics of patients injured during woodworking activities, upon their arrival to the emergency department in a regional of France where this industry is prevalent. The secondary objective was to compare patient and injury characteristics for work-related and hobby-related accidents. A cohort of 87 patients who had suffered a woodworking accident over a two-year period was evaluated; 79 were available for follow-up. The context and circumstances of the accident, nature and location of the injuries and patient demographics were recorded. Hobby-related accidents accounted for two-thirds of the accidents (51/79). Most of the injured workers were either loggers (35%) or carpenters (46%). The hand was injured in 53 cases (67%). Work-related accidents resulted in significantly more serious consequences in terms of hospital stay, work stoppage, resumption of work or retraining than hobby-related accidents. For the workplace accidents, 86% occurred on new machines; more than 25% of the machines involved in accidents at home were over 15 years. Sixty-eight per cent of workers were wearing their safety gear, while only 31% of those injured during recreational woodworking wore the appropriate gear. Several elements of prevention should be improved: information about the need to maintain the equipment, protect the worker with suitable clothing, and learn which maneuvers are considered hazardous. Safety gear should be regularly inspected in the workplace.

  8. Three Mile Island Accident Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Three Mile Island Accident Data consists of mostly upper air and wind observations immediately following the nuclear meltdown occurring on March 28, 1979, near...

  9. Nuclear fuel cycle facility accident analysis handbook

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ayer, J E; Clark, A T; Loysen, P; Ballinger, M Y; Mishima, J; Owczarski, P C; Gregory, W S; Nichols, B D

    1988-05-01

    The Accident Analysis Handbook (AAH) covers four generic facilities: fuel manufacturing, fuel reprocessing, waste storage/solidification, and spent fuel storage; and six accident types: fire, explosion, tornado, criticality, spill, and equipment failure. These are the accident types considered to make major contributions to the radiological risk from accidents in nuclear fuel cycle facility operations. The AAH will enable the user to calculate source term releases from accident scenarios manually or by computer. A major feature of the AAH is development of accident sample problems to provide input to source term analysis methods and transport computer codes. Sample problems and illustrative examples for different accident types are included in the AAH.

  10. Paragliding accidents in remote areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fasching, G; Schippinger, G; Pretscher, R

    1997-08-01

    Paragliding is an increasingly popular hobby, as people try to find new and more adventurous activities. However, there is an increased and inherent danger with this sport. For this reason, as well as the inexperience of many operators, injuries occur frequently. This retrospective study centers on the helicopter rescue of 70 individuals in paragliding accidents. All histories were examined, and 43 patients answered a questionnaire. Nineteen (42%) pilots were injured when taking off, 20 (44%) during the flight, and six (13%) when landing. Routine and experience did not affect the prevalence of accident. Analysis of the causes of accident revealed pilot errors in all but three cases. In 34 rescue operations a landing of the helicopter near the site of the accident was possible. Half of the patients had to be rescued by a cable winch or a long rope fixed to the helicopter. Seven (10%) of the pilots suffered multiple trauma, 38 (54%) had injuries of the lower extremities, and 32 (84%) of them sustained fractures. Injuries to the spine were diagnosed in 34 cases with a fracture rate of 85%. One patient had an incomplete paraplegia. Injuries to the head occurred in 17 patients. No paraglider pilot died. The average hospitalization was 22 days, and average time of working inability was 14 weeks. Fourteen (34%) patients suffered from a permanent damage to their nerves or joints. Forty-three percent of the paragliders continued their sport despite the accident; two of them had another accident. An improved training program is necessary to lower the incidence of paragliding accidents. Optimal equipment to reduce injuries in case of accidents is mandatory. The helicopter emergency physician must perform a careful examination, provide stabilization of airways and circulation, give analgesics, splint fractured extremities, and transport the victim on a vacuum mattress to the appropriate hospital.

  11. Accident rates and types among self-employed private forest owners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindroos, Ola; Burström, Lage

    2010-11-01

    Half of all Swedish forests are owned by private individuals, and at least 215,000 people work in these privately owned forest holdings. However, only lethal accidents are systematically monitored among self-employed forest workers. Therefore, data from the registries of the Swedish Work Environment Authority, the Labor Insurance Organization and the regional University Hospital in Umeå were gathered to allow us to perform a more in-depth assessment of the rate and types of accidents that occurred among private forest owners. We found large differences between the registries in the type and number of accidents that were reported. We encountered difficulties in defining "self-employed forest worker" and also in determining whether the accidents that did occur happened during work or leisure time. Consequently, the estimates for the accident rate that we obtained varied from 32 to > or = 4300 injured persons per year in Sweden, depending on the registry that was consulted, the definition of the sample population that was used, and the accident severity definition that was employed. Nevertheless, the different registries gave a consistent picture of the types of accidents that occur while individuals are participating in self-employed forestry work. Severe accidents were relatively common, as self-employed forestry work fatalities constituted 7% of the total number of fatalities in the work authority registry. Falling trees were associated with many of these fatal accidents as well as with accidents that resulted in severe non-fatal injuries. Thus, unsafe work methods appeared more related to the occurrence of an accident than the equipment that was being used at the time of the accident (e.g., a chainsaw). Improvement of the workers' skills should therefore be considered to be an important prevention measure that should be undertaken in this field. The challenges in improving the safety in these smallest of companies, which fall somewhere between the purview of

  12. Development of MAAP5.0.3 Spent Fuel Pool Model for Severe Accident Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seo, Mi Ro [KHNP-CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    After the Fukushima accident, the severe accident phenomena in the Spent Fuel Pool (SFP) have been the great issues in the nuclear industry. Generally, during full power operation status, the decay heat of the spent fuel in the SFP is not high enough to cause the severe accident that is the say, the melting of fuel and fuel rack. In addition to this, the SFP of the PWR is not isolated within the containment like the SFP of the old BWR plant, there are so many possible measures to prevent and mitigate severe accidents in the SFP. On the other hand, in the low power shutdown status (fuel refueling), all the core is transferred into the SFP during the refueling period. At this period, if some accidents happen such as the loss of SFP cooling and the failure of SFP integrity then the accidents may be developed into severe accident because the decay heat is high enough. So, the analysis of severe accidents in the SFP during low power shutdown state is greatly affected to the establishment of the major strategies in the severe accident management guideline (SAMG). However, the status of the domestic technical background for those analyses is very weak. it is known that the decay heat of the spent fuel in the SFP is not high enough to cause the severe accident qualitatively. However, there are some possibilities that can cause the severe accidents in the SFP if the loss of SFP cooling and integrity happens simultaneously. The severe accident phenomena in SFP themselves are not much different from those in the containment. However, since the structure of SFP cannot be isolated during the accidents like the containment, the consequence can be extremely significant. So, in terms of the establishment of the severe accident management strategy, it is necessary that the quantitative analysis for the severe accident progression in the SFP should be performed. In this study, the general behavior which can be appeared during the severe accidents in the SFP was analyzed using the

  13. Severe Accidents in the Energy Sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hirschberg, S.; Spiekerman, G.; Dones, R

    1998-11-01

    A comprehensive database on severe accidents, with main emphasis on the ones associated with the energy sector, has been established by the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI). Fossil energy carriers, nuclear power and hydro power are covered in ENSAD (Energy related Severe Accident Database), and the scope of work includes all stages of the analysed energy chains, i.e. exploration, extraction, transports, processing, storage and waste disposal. The database has been developed using a wide variety of sources. As opposed to the previous studies the ambition of the present work has been, whenever feasible, to cover a relatively broad spectrum of damage categories of interest. This includes apart from fatalities also serious injuries, evacuations, land or water contamination, and economic losses. Currently, ENSAD covers 13,914 accidents, of which 4290 are energy related, and 1943 are considered as severe accidents. Significant effort has been directed towards the examination of the relevance of the worldwide accident records to the Swiss specific conditions, particularly in the context of nuclear and hydro power. For example, a detailed investigation of large dam failures and their consequences was carried out. Generally, while Swiss specific aspects are emphasised, the major part of the collected and analysed data, as well as the insights gained, are considered to be of general interest. In particular, three sets of the aggregated results are provided based on world wide occurrence, on OECD countries, and on non OECD countries, respectively. Significant differences exist between the aggregated, normalised damage rates assessed for the various energy carriers: On the world wide basis, the broader picture obtained by coverage of full energy chains leads to aggregated immediate fatality rates being much higher for the fossil fuels than what one would expect if power plants only were considered. The highest rates apply to LPG, followed by hydro, oil, coal, natural gas and

  14. Nanoparticles: Uncertainty Risk Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Baun, Anders

    2012-01-01

    Scientific uncertainty plays a major role in assessing the potential environmental risks of nanoparticles. Moreover, there is uncertainty within fundamental data and information regarding the potential environmental and health risks of nanoparticles, hampering risk assessments based on standard a...

  15. Analysis of multiple tank car releases in train accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiang; Liu, Chang; Hong, Yili

    2017-10-01

    There are annually over two million carloads of hazardous materials transported by rail in the United States. The American railroads use large blocks of tank cars to transport petroleum crude oil and other flammable liquids from production to consumption sites. Being different from roadway transport of hazardous materials, a train accident can potentially result in the derailment and release of multiple tank cars, which may result in significant consequences. The prior literature predominantly assumes that the occurrence of multiple tank car releases in a train accident is a series of independent Bernoulli processes, and thus uses the binomial distribution to estimate the total number of tank car releases given the number of tank cars derailing or damaged. This paper shows that the traditional binomial model can incorrectly estimate multiple tank car release probability by magnitudes in certain circumstances, thereby significantly affecting railroad safety and risk analysis. To bridge this knowledge gap, this paper proposes a novel, alternative Correlated Binomial (CB) model that accounts for the possible correlations of multiple tank car releases in the same train. We test three distinct correlation structures in the CB model, and find that they all outperform the conventional binomial model based on empirical tank car accident data. The analysis shows that considering tank car release correlations would result in a significantly improved fit of the empirical data than otherwise. Consequently, it is prudent to consider alternative modeling techniques when analyzing the probability of multiple tank car releases in railroad accidents. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Aspects of complementarity and uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vathsan, Radhika; Qureshi, Tabish

    2016-08-01

    The two-slit experiment with quantum particles provides many insights into the behavior of quantum mechanics, including Bohr’s complementarity principle. Here, we analyze Einstein’s recoiling slit version of the experiment and show how the inevitable entanglement between the particle and the recoiling slit as a which-way detector is responsible for complementarity. We derive the Englert-Greenberger-Yasin duality from this entanglement, which can also be thought of as a consequence of sum-uncertainty relations between certain complementary observables of the recoiling slit. Thus, entanglement is an integral part of the which-way detection process, and so is uncertainty, though in a completely different way from that envisaged by Bohr and Einstein.

  17. Railway-controller-perceived competence in incidents and accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Yung-Hsiang; Tsai, Yu-Chun

    2011-12-01

    Railway controllers play a pivotal role in service recovery of normal rail system operations when incidents and accidents occur. Those in this position must have sufficient competence to overcome task difficulties caused by accident uncertainties. This study adopts Taiwan's railway system as a case study to diagnose railway-controller-perceived competence when facing diverse tasks during incidents and accidents that are derived from a proposed conceptual model. Railway-controller-perceived competence is measured using the Rasch model. Analytical results indicate that working with an external rescue agency handling a rescue operation, explanations to the public, and communication with an external rescue agency are considered the most troublesome tasks. Additionally, railway-controller-perceived competence differs based on the work experience. This information will prove useful for rail system operators and government regulators when designing and regulating railway controller competence management systems. STATEMENT OF RELEVANCE: This study presents a systematic approach for examining the gap between railway-controller-perceived competence and task difficulties associated with incidents and accidents. The relevance of findings encompasses the effects of transportation ergonomics and railway issues on the problem-solving competence and decision-making skills of railway controllers, and the competence management system.

  18. Chernobyl: what sanitary consequences?; Tchernobyl: quelles consequences sanitaires?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aurengo, A. [Assistance Publique, Hopitaux de Parix (AP-HP), 75 - Paris (France)

    2001-11-01

    Because of its public health, ecological and industrial consequences, the Chernobyl accident has become a myth which serves as the focus of many fears, justified or not. no one can question the seriousness of the event, but after fifteen years there is still no agreement about the effect it has had or will have on public health. For example, the total number of deaths attributed to Chernobyl varies from less than a hundred to several millions and congenital malformations from negligible to cataclysmic. Effects on public health may be calculated from data on contamination, from the dose received and from the risk, all three of which are likely to be very roughly known; or they may be evaluated on the spot, either by epidemiological studies or by examining medical registers. This report makes an inventory of the different risks and takes stock on them. (N.C.)

  19. ASTEC V2 severe accident integral code: Fission product modelling and validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cantrel, L., E-mail: laurent.cantrel@irsn.fr; Cousin, F.; Bosland, L.; Chevalier-Jabet, K.; Marchetto, C.

    2014-06-01

    One main goal of the severe accident integral code ASTEC V2, jointly developed since almost more than 15 years by IRSN and GRS, is to simulate the overall behaviour of fission products (FP) in a damaged nuclear facility. ASTEC applications are source term determinations, level 2 Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA2) studies including the determination of uncertainties, accident management studies and physical analyses of FP experiments to improve the understanding of the phenomenology. ASTEC is a modular code and models of a part of the phenomenology are implemented in each module: the release of FPs and structural materials from degraded fuel in the ELSA module; the transport through the reactor coolant system approximated as a sequence of control volumes in the SOPHAEROS module; and the radiochemistry inside the containment nuclear building in the IODE module. Three other modules, CPA, ISODOP and DOSE, allow respectively computing the deposition rate of aerosols inside the containment, the activities of the isotopes as a function of time, and the gaseous dose rate which is needed to model radiochemistry in the gaseous phase. In ELSA, release models are semi-mechanistic and have been validated for a wide range of experimental data, and noticeably for VERCORS experiments. For SOPHAEROS, the models can be divided into two parts: vapour phase phenomena and aerosol phase phenomena. For IODE, iodine and ruthenium chemistry are modelled based on a semi-mechanistic approach, these FPs can form some volatile species and are particularly important in terms of potential radiological consequences. The models in these 3 modules are based on a wide experimental database, resulting for a large part from international programmes, and they are considered at the state of the art of the R and D knowledge. This paper illustrates some FPs modelling capabilities of ASTEC and computed values are compared to some experimental results, which are parts of the validation matrix.

  20. [Accidents of fulguration].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Virenque, C; Laguerre, J

    1976-01-01

    Fulguration, first electric accident in which the man was a victim, is to day better known. A clap of thunder is decomposed in two elements: lightning, and thunder. Lightning is caused by an electrical discharge, either within a cloud, or between two clouds, or, above all, between a cloud and the surface of the ground. Experimental equipments owned by the French Electricity Company and by the Atomic Energy Commission, have allowed to photograph lightnings and to measure certain physical characteristics (Intensity variable between 25 to 100 kA, voltage variable between 20 to 1 000 kV). The frequency of storms was learned: the isokeraunic level, in France, is about 20, meaning that thunder is heard twenty days during one year. Man may be stricken by thunder by direct hit, by sudden bursting, by earth current, or through various conductors. The electric charge which reached him may go to the earth directly by contact with the ground or may dissipate in the air through a bony promontory (elbow). The total number of victims, "wounded" or deceased, is not now known by statistics. Death comes by insulation breakdown of one of several anatomic cephalic formations: skull, meninx, brain. Many various lesions may happen in survivors: loss of consciousness, more or less long, sensorial or motion deficiencies. All these signs are momentary and generally reversible. Besides one may observe much more intense lesions on the skin: burns and, over all, characteristic aborescence (skin effect by high frequency current). The heart is protected, contrarily to what happens with industrial electrocution. The curative treatment is merely symptomatic : reanimation, surgery for burns or associated traumatic lesions. A prevention is researched to help the lonely man, in the country or in the mountains in the houses (lightning conductor, Faraday cage), in vehicles (aircraft, cars, ships). The mysterious and unforseeable character of lightning still stays, leaving a door opened for numerous

  1. Considering the uncertainties in empirical correlations for vertical countercurrent flow limitation (CCFL) with TRACE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sporn, Michael; Hurtado, Antonio [Technische Univ. Dresden (Germany)

    2015-12-15

    TRACE is used to calculate the thermal-hydraulic sequence in nuclear power plants for accident analysis. In some postulated accidents, countercurrent flow limitation (CCFL) phenomena can occur. This phenomenon is calculated by means of empirical relationships in TRACE. Usually, not all empirical relationships used in TRACE are accessible to the user who develops the computational model for accident analysis, but in the case of CCFL, the user must specify the parameters of the empirical relationship. Additional preliminary work is needed for fitting the parameters so that experimental data matches the computational calculations and the accident analysis can be performed. Furthermore, uncertainties in measurement errors from experimental data lead to user-based variations in the parameters of the empirical relationship for CCFL. Therefore, an alternative procedure in which accident analysis is performed with consideration of the uncertainties in the empirical relationships is presented. The uncertainty was quantified by means of a stochastic linear regression model for the Wallis correlation and the Bankoff correlation. An uncertainty analysis was subsequently performed to demonstrate the influence of uncertainty in certain cases of CCFL.

  2. Mathematical modeling of a survey-meter used to measure radioactivity in human thyroids: Monte Carlo calculations of the device response and uncertainties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khrutchinsky, Arkady [Research Institute for Nuclear Problems, 11 Bobruiskaya Street, Minsk 220030 (Belarus); Drozdovitch, Vladimir, E-mail: drozdovv@mail.nih.gov [DHHS, NIH, National Cancer Institute, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, 6120 Executive Blvd, EPS 7100, Bethesda, MD 20892 (United States); Kutsen, Semion [Research Institute for Nuclear Problems, 11 Bobruiskaya Street, Minsk 220030 (Belarus); Minenko, Victor [Belarusian Medical Academy of Post-Graduate Education, 3 Brovki Street, Minsk 220714 (Belarus); Khrouch, Valeri [Burnasyan Federal Medical Biophysical Center, 46 Zhivopisnaya Street, 123182 Moscow (Russian Federation); Luckyanov, Nickolas [DHHS, NIH, National Cancer Institute, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, 6120 Executive Blvd, EPS 7100, Bethesda, MD 20892 (United States); Voilleque, Paul [MJP Risk Assessment, Inc., P.O. Box 200937, Denver, CO 80220-0937 (United States); Bouville, Andre [DHHS, NIH, National Cancer Institute, Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, 6120 Executive Blvd, EPS 7100, Bethesda, MD 20892 (United States)

    2012-04-15

    This paper presents results of Monte Carlo modeling of the SRP-68-01 survey meter used to measure exposure rates near the thyroid glands of persons exposed to radioactivity following the Chernobyl accident. This device was not designed to measure radioactivity in humans. To estimate the uncertainty associated with the measurement results, a mathematical model of the SRP-68-01 survey meter was developed and verified. A Monte Carlo method of numerical simulation of radiation transport has been used to calculate the calibration factor for the device and evaluate its uncertainty. The SRP-68-01 survey meter scale coefficient, an important characteristic of the device, was also estimated in this study. The calibration factors of the survey meter were calculated for {sup 131}I, {sup 132}I, {sup 133}I, and {sup 135}I content in the thyroid gland for six age groups of population: newborns; children aged 1 yr, 5 yr, 10 yr, 15 yr; and adults. A realistic scenario of direct thyroid measurements with an 'extended' neck was used to calculate the calibration factors for newborns and one-year-olds. Uncertainties in the device calibration factors due to variability of the device scale coefficient, variability in thyroid mass and statistical uncertainty of Monte Carlo method were evaluated. Relative uncertainties in the calibration factor estimates were found to be from 0.06 for children aged 1 yr to 0.1 for 10-yr and 15-yr children. The positioning errors of the detector during measurements deviate mainly in one direction from the estimated calibration factors. Deviations of the device position from the proper geometry of measurements were found to lead to overestimation of the calibration factor by up to 24 percent for adults and up to 60 percent for 1-yr children. The results of this study improve the estimates of {sup 131}I thyroidal content and, consequently, thyroid dose estimates that are derived from direct thyroid measurements performed in Belarus shortly after

  3. Parton Distribution Function Uncertainties

    CERN Document Server

    Giele, Walter T.; Kosower, David A.; Giele, Walter T.; Keller, Stephane A.; Kosower, David A.

    2001-01-01

    We present parton distribution functions which include a quantitative estimate of its uncertainties. The parton distribution functions are optimized with respect to deep inelastic proton data, expressing the uncertainties as a density measure over the functional space of parton distribution functions. This leads to a convenient method of propagating the parton distribution function uncertainties to new observables, now expressing the uncertainty as a density in the prediction of the observable. New measurements can easily be included in the optimized sets as added weight functions to the density measure. Using the optimized method nowhere in the analysis compromises have to be made with regard to the treatment of the uncertainties.

  4. The kinetics of aerosol particle formation and removal in NPP severe accidents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zatevakhin, Mikhail A.; Arefiev, Valentin K.; Semashko, Sergey E.; Dolganov, Rostislav A.

    2016-06-01

    Severe Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) accidents are accompanied by release of a massive amount of energy, radioactive products and hydrogen into the atmosphere of the NPP containment. A valid estimation of consequences of such accidents can only be carried out through the use of the integrated codes comprising a description of the basic processes which determine the consequences. A brief description of a coupled aerosol and thermal-hydraulic code to be used for the calculation of the aerosol kinetics within the NPP containment in case of a severe accident is given. The code comprises a KIN aerosol unit integrated into the KUPOL-M thermal-hydraulic code. Some features of aerosol behavior in severe NPP accidents are briefly described.

  5. Uncertainty analysis guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andres, T.H

    2002-05-01

    This guide applies to the estimation of uncertainty in quantities calculated by scientific, analysis and design computer programs that fall within the scope of AECL's software quality assurance (SQA) manual. The guide weaves together rational approaches from the SQA manual and three other diverse sources: (a) the CSAU (Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty) evaluation methodology; (b) the ISO Guide,for the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement; and (c) the SVA (Systems Variability Analysis) method of risk analysis. This report describes the manner by which random and systematic uncertainties in calculated quantities can be estimated and expressed. Random uncertainty in model output can be attributed to uncertainties of inputs. The propagation of these uncertainties through a computer model can be represented in a variety of ways, including exact calculations, series approximations and Monte Carlo methods. Systematic uncertainties emerge from the development of the computer model itself, through simplifications and conservatisms, for example. These must be estimated and combined with random uncertainties to determine the combined uncertainty in a model output. This report also addresses the method by which uncertainties should be employed in code validation, in order to determine whether experiments and simulations agree, and whether or not a code satisfies the required tolerance for its application. (author)

  6. Uncertainty and Cognitive Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faisal eMushtaq

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available A growing trend of neuroimaging, behavioural and computational research has investigated the topic of outcome uncertainty in decision-making. Although evidence to date indicates that humans are very effective in learning to adapt to uncertain situations, the nature of the specific cognitive processes involved in the adaptation to uncertainty are still a matter of debate. In this article, we reviewed evidence suggesting that cognitive control processes are at the heart of uncertainty in decision-making contexts. Available evidence suggests that: (1 There is a strong conceptual overlap between the constructs of uncertainty and cognitive control; (2 There is a remarkable overlap between the neural networks associated with uncertainty and the brain networks subserving cognitive control; (3 The perception and estimation of uncertainty might play a key role in monitoring processes and the evaluation of the need for control; (4 Potential interactions between uncertainty and cognitive control might play a significant role in several affective disorders.

  7. Effect of In-Vessel Retention Strategies under Postulated SGTR Accidents of OPR1000

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, Wonjun; Lee, Yongjae; Kim, Sung Joong [Hanyang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Hwan-Yeol; Park, Rae-Joon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    In this study, MELCOR code was used to simulate the severe accident of the OPR1000. MELCOR code is computer code which enables to simulate the progression of the severe accident for light water reactors. It has been developed by Sandia National Laboratories for plant risk assessment and source term analysis since 1982. According to the probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) Level 1 of OPR1000, typical severe accident scenarios of high probability of a transition to severe accident for OPR1000 were identified as Small Break Loss of Coolant Accident (SBLOCA), Station Black out (SBO), Total Loss of Feed Water (TLOFW), and Steam Generator Tube Rupture. While the first three accidents are expected to result in the generation and transportation of the radioactive nuclides within the containment building as consequence of the core damage and subsequent reactor pressure vessel (RPV) failure, the latter accident scenario may be progressed with possible direct release of the radioactive nuclides to the environment by bypassing the containment building. Thus it is of significance to investigate the SGTR accident with a sophisticated severe accident code. This code can simulate the whole phenomena of a severe accident such as thermal-hydraulic response, core heat-up, oxidation and relocation, and fission product release and transport. Thus many researchers have used MELCOR in severe accident studies. In this study, in-vessel retention strategies were applied for postulated SGTR accidents. Mitigation effect and adverse effect of in-vessel strategies was studied in aspect of RPV failure, fission product release and containment thermal-hydraulic and hydrogen behavior. Base case of SGTR accident and three mitigation cases were simulated using MELCOR code 1.8.6. For each mitigation cases, mitigation effect and adverse effect were investigated. Conclusions can be summarized as follows: (1) RPV failure of SGTR base case occurred at 5.62 hours and fission product of RCS released to

  8. Development and first application of a new tool for the simulation of the initiating phase of a severe accident on SFR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guyot, M.; Gubernatis, P.; Suteau, C.

    2014-06-01

    In order to improve the safety level of Sodium Fast Reactors, low probability events such as Hypothetical Core Disruptive Accident (HCDA) are analyzed for their potential consequences. The initiating phase of such accidents is of particular interest both for the prevention and the mitigation of routes leading to a large core disruption and recriticalities. Up to now, analysis of the initiating phase of HCDA has been performed with the SAS4A code. The SAS4A accident calculations are based on a multiple-channel approach, which requires that subassemblies or groups of similar subassemblies be represented together as independent channels. The SAS4A severe accident calculation scheme resorts to a simplified treatment in which an average pin is used to represent a channel. A point kinetics model coupled with a feedback reactivity model is also used to provide an estimate of the reactor power level. Both to increase the accuracy and decrease the uncertainties in the prediction of reactor safety margins, a new computational tool is currently under development at CEA Cadarache. The main features of this tool are the ability to provide a detailed sub-channel meshing of the sub-assembly as well as three-dimensional kinetics during severe accident conditions. To fulfill these goals, the fluid-dynamics SIMMER-III code has been coupled to the SNATCH solver using a MPI environment. This coupling allows both to compute the multi-phase and multi-component flows encountered in severe accident conditions and to model the power shape variation during voiding and melting of the different reactor materials. This new calculation scheme relies on a SAS-like multiple-channel treatment, where channel-to-channel heat and momentum exchanges are neglected. In this paper, an overview of the SIMMER-III/SNATCH coupled tool capabilities is provided. A first application of this new tool is also performed and compared with a SAS4A reference calculation. The new SIMMER-III/SNATCH tool proved to be

  9. Energy Analysis of Road Accidents Based on Close-Range Photogrammetry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alejandro Morales

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an efficient and low-cost approach for energy analysis of road accidents using images obtained using consumer-grade digital cameras and smartphones. The developed method could be used by security forces in order to improve the qualitative and quantitative analysis of traffic accidents. This role of the security forces is crucial to settle arguments; consequently, the remote and non-invasive collection of accident related data before the scene is modified proves to be essential. These data, taken in situ, are the basis to perform the necessary calculations, basically the energy analysis of the road accident, for the corresponding expert reports and the reconstruction of the accident itself, especially in those accidents with important damages and consequences. Therefore, the method presented in this paper provides the security forces with an accurate, three-dimensional, and scaled reconstruction of a road accident, so that it may be considered as a support tool for the energy analysis. This method has been validated and tested with a real crash scene simulated by the local police in the Academy of Public Safety of Extremadura, Spain.

  10. Reported Radiation Overexposure Accidents Worldwide, 1980-2013: A Systematic Review

    OpenAIRE

    Karen Coeytaux; Eric Bey; Doran Christensen; Glassman, Erik S.; Becky Murdock; Christelle Doucet

    2015-01-01

    Background Radiation overexposure accidents are rare but can have severe long-term health consequences. Although underreporting can be an issue, some extensive literature reviews of reported radiation overexposures have been performed and constitute a sound basis for conclusions on general trends. Building further on this work, we performed a systematic review that completes previous reviews and provides new information on characteristics and trends of reported radiation accidents. Methods We...

  11. Accident knowledge and emergency management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rasmussen, B.; Groenberg, C.D.

    1997-03-01

    The report contains an overall frame for transformation of knowledge and experience from risk analysis to emergency education. An accident model has been developed to describe the emergency situation. A key concept of this model is uncontrolled flow of energy (UFOE), essential elements are the state, location and movement of the energy (and mass). A UFOE can be considered as the driving force of an accident, e.g., an explosion, a fire, a release of heavy gases. As long as the energy is confined, i.e. the location and movement of the energy are under control, the situation is safe, but loss of confinement will create a hazardous situation that may develop into an accident. A domain model has been developed for representing accident and emergency scenarios occurring in society. The domain model uses three main categories: status, context and objectives. A domain is a group of activities with allied goals and elements and ten specific domains have been investigated: process plant, storage, nuclear power plant, energy distribution, marine transport of goods, marine transport of people, aviation, transport by road, transport by rail and natural disasters. Totally 25 accident cases were consulted and information was extracted for filling into the schematic representations with two to four cases pr. specific domain. (au) 41 tabs., 8 ills.; 79 refs.

  12. Radioactive materials transport accident analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McSweeney, T.I.; Maheras, S.J.; Ross, S.B. [Battelle Memorial Inst. (United States)

    2004-07-01

    Over the last 25 years, one of the major issues raised regarding radioactive material transportation has been the risk of severe accidents. While numerous studies have shown that traffic fatalities dominate the risk, modeling the risk of severe accidents has remained one of the most difficult analysis problems. This paper will show how models that were developed for nuclear spent fuel transport accident analysis can be adopted to obtain estimates of release fractions for other types of radioactive material such as vitrified highlevel radioactive waste. The paper will also show how some experimental results from fire experiments involving low level waste packaging can be used in modeling transport accident analysis with this waste form. The results of the analysis enable an analyst to clearly show the differences in the release fractions as a function of accident severity. The paper will also show that by placing the data in a database such as ACCESS trademark, it is possible to obtain risk measures for transporting the waste forms along proposed routes from the generator site to potential final disposal sites.

  13. Nuclear accident dosimetry intercomparison studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sims, C S

    1989-09-01

    Twenty-two nuclear accident dosimetry intercomparison studies utilizing the fast-pulse Health Physics Research Reactor at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory have been conducted since 1965. These studies have provided a total of 62 different organizations a forum for discussion of criticality accident dosimetry, an opportunity to test their neutron and gamma-ray dosimetry systems under a variety of simulated criticality accident conditions, and the experience of comparing results with reference dose values as well as with the measured results obtained by others making measurements under identical conditions. Sixty-nine nuclear accidents (27 with unmoderated neutron energy spectra and 42 with eight different shielded spectra) have been simulated in the studies. Neutron doses were in the 0.2-8.5 Gy range and gamma doses in the 0.1-2.0 Gy range. A total of 2,289 dose measurements (1,311 neutron, 978 gamma) were made during the intercomparisons. The primary methods of neutron dosimetry were activation foils, thermoluminescent dosimeters, and blood sodium activation. The main methods of gamma dose measurement were thermoluminescent dosimeters, radiophotoluminescent glass, and film. About 68% of the neutron measurements met the accuracy guidelines (+/- 25%) and about 52% of the gamma measurements met the accuracy criterion (+/- 20%) for accident dosimetry.

  14. RADIATION ACCIDENTS: EXPERIENCE OF MEDICAL PROTECTION AND MODERN STRATEGY OF PHARMACOLOGICAL MAINTENANCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. N. Grebenyuk

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Experience of medical protection at radiation accidents is analyzed. It is shown, that medicines that have been in the arsenal of medical service during the liquidation of consequences of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident satisfied their predestination in a whole and were rather effective for radiation protection. The modern strategy of pharmacological maintenance based on use of means and methods, allowing to keeping a life, health and professional serviceability of people in conditions of amazing action of a complex of factors of radiation accidents, is submitted.

  15. An effect of containment filtered venting system on scale of contamination under severe accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeon, Ju young; Lee, Jai-ki [Hanyang Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-02-15

    Some countries are expected to expand the scope of the Emergency Planning Zone(EPZ) by the influence of Fukushima accident. However, if the equipment, which is able to mitigate the severe accident consequences, is installed, unnecessary costs for an expansion of emergency planning zone will be reduced. The International Nuclear Safety Advisory Group (INSAC) has suggested to mitigate severe accidents by installing The Filtered Containment Venting System (FCVS). The probabilistic assessment code MACCS2 was used to calculate the effective radiation dose with and without FCVS to determine the effective reduction by the installation of a FCVS.

  16. Flammable gas deflagration consequence calculations for the tankwaste remediation system basis for interim operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Vleet, R.J., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-09-23

    This paper calculates the radiological dose consequences and the toxic exposures for deflagration accidents at various Tank Waste Remediation System facilities. These will be used in support of the Tank Waste Remediation System Basis for Interim Operation.

  17. Review of global menace of road accidents with special reference to malaysia- a social perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kareem, Abdul

    2003-07-01

    Road accident is 'a global tragedy' with ever-rising trend. The goal of this article includes review of the causes and nature of accidents, statistical data regarding road accidents and the economical impact. 1.17 million deaths occur each year worldwide due to road accidents 70 % of which occur in developing countries. 65% of deaths involve pedestrians, 35 % of which are children. Estimates suggest that 23-34 million people are injured worldwide every year in road crashes - a value almost twice that previously estimated. It is estimated that more than 200 U.S. citizens die each year due to road accidents abroad. Every year in Europe, more than 50,000 peoples are killed in road accidents, and more than 150,000 remain disabled. It is a sad fact that the total number of road accidents in Malaysia exceeded 223,000 in 1999. On the average, 16 persons died from these road accidents, every single day in 1999. Lack of attention, reckless driving, lack of proper protection, speeding, bad personal habits, social and behavioral misconduct and inconsiderate drivers of larger vehicles are some of the problems that cause accidents. In Malaysia, motorcycle fatal accidents (60%) warrant a high degree of concern. Young children and senior citizens are found to be in the vulnerable age group. In Malaysia, in 1999 alone, general insurers paid RM1.67 billion or an average of RM4.6 million a day on motor claims. It is now recognized that road traffic accidents represent a major public health problem, because of the high number of victims involved and because of the seriousness of the consequences for themselves and for their families.

  18. [Nuclear-power-plant accidents: thyroid cancer incidence and radiation-related health effects from the Chernobyl accident].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlumberger, Martin; Le Guen, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    Following the Chernobyl accident, enormous amounts of radioisotopes were released in the atmosphere and have contaminated surrounding populations in the absence of rapid protective countermeasures. The highest radiation doses were delivered to the thyroid gland, and the only direct consequence of radiation exposure observed among contaminated population is the increased incidence of thyroid cancers among subjects who were children in 1986 and who lived at that time in Belarus, Ukraine or Russia. © 2012 médecine/sciences – Inserm / SRMS.

  19. Study on virtual redundancy among process parameters for accident management applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahmed, Rizwan; Pak, Sukyoung; Heo, Gyunyoung [Kyung Hee Univ., Yongin (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Jungtaek; Park, Soo Yong; Ahn, Kwangil [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-05-15

    The research at this point can be divided into three streams, focused on the development of self powered sensors and instrumentation, developing intelligent systems that can diagnose and accident type and developing indirect ways that is, methods to assess the safety critical parameters from other statistically related parameters. This first approach is quite expensive, second approach suffers from the limitation that infinite number of accident scenarios cannot be simulated. However, the only way to access the parameters during severe accidents is through simulation codes. Even-though, the process parameters data contain uncertainty, this is the only thing to start with severe accident management. International Nuclear Energy Research Initiative (Inert) project has started research to address various aspects of safety management during severe accidents. As a part of Inert team, we are investigating correlations among process parameters in such a way that safety critical information could be secured by means of other non-safety or virtual parameters during a severe accident. This is known as virtual redundancy of information. This will improve the availability of information in case one channel for information is lost. In this paper, we will discuss methodology, preliminary results and directions for further study. We found that several process parameters exhibit distinct variation pattern for a particular accident and several other parameters can also have the similar trends which strengthens the possibility of having virtual redundancy of information.

  20. Estimated recurrence frequencies for initiating accident categories associated with the Clinch River Breeder Reactor Plant design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Copus, E R

    1982-04-01

    Estimated recurrence frequencies for each of twenty-five generic LMFBR initiating accident categories were quantified using the Clinch River Breeder Reactor Plant (CRBRP) design. These estimates were obtained using simplified systems fault trees and functional event tree models from the Accident Delineation Study Phase I Final Report coupled with order-of-magnitude estimates for the initiator-dependent failure probabilities of the individual CRBRP engineered safety systems. Twelve distinct protected accident categories where SCRAM is assumed to be successful are estimated to occur at a combined rate of 10/sup -3/ times per year while thirteen unprotected accident categories in which SCRAM fails are estimated to occur at a combined rate on the order of 10/sup -5/ times per year. These estimates are thought to be representative despite the fact that human performance factors, maintenance and repair, as well as input common cause uncertainties, were not treated explicitly. The overall results indicate that for the CRBRP design no single accident category appears to be dominant, nor can any be totally eliminated from further investigation in the areas of accident phenomenology for in-core events and post-accident phenomenology for containment.

  1. Fukushima nuclear power plant accident was preventable

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanoglu, Utku; Synolakis, Costas

    2015-04-01

    On 11 March 2011, the fourth largest earthquake in recorded history triggered a large tsunami, which will probably be remembered from the dramatic live pictures in a country, which is possibly the most tsunami-prepared in the world. The earthquake and tsunami caused a major nuclear power plant (NPP) accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi, owned by Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO). The accident was likely more severe than the 1979 Three Mile Island and less severe than the Chernobyl 1986 accidents. Yet, after the 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami had hit the Madras Atomic Power Station there had been renewed interest in the resilience of NPPs to tsunamis. The 11 March 2011 tsunami hit the Onagawa, Fukushima Dai-ichi, Fukushima Dai-ni, and Tokai Dai-ni NPPs, all located approximately in a 230km stretch along the east coast of Honshu. The Onagawa NPP was the closest to the source and was hit by an approximately height of 13m tsunami, of the same height as the one that hit the Fukushima Dai-ichi. Even though the Onagawa site also subsided by 1m, the tsunami did not reach to the main critical facilities. As the International Atomic Energy Agency put it, the Onagawa NPP survived the event "remarkably undamaged." At Fukushima Dai-ichi, the three reactors in operation were shut down due to strong ground shaking. The earthquake damaged all offsite electric transmission facilities. Emergency diesel generators (EDGs) provided back up power and started cooling down the reactors. However, the tsunami flooded the facilities damaging 12 of its 13 EDGs and caused a blackout. Among the consequences were hydrogen explosions that released radioactive material in the environment. It is unfortunately clear that TEPCO and Japan's principal regulator Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency (NISA) had failed in providing a professional hazard analysis for the plant, even though their last assessment had taken place only months before the accident. The main reasons are the following. One

  2. Interactions of severe accident research and regulatory positions (ISARRP)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sehgal, B.R. (comp.) [Royal Inst. of Tech., Stockholm (Sweden). Nuclear Power Safety

    2001-12-01

    The work Programme of the ISARRP Project was divided into several work packages. The work was conducted in the form of presentations and discussions, held during several meetings whose character was that of workshops. Short reports were prepared by the partners assigned to each task. Work Package 1: Critical review of the SA phenomenological research. The objective of this work package was to consider the progress made world-wide in research on the resolution of the outstanding phenomenological issues posed by severe accidents. Work Package 2: Relevance of severe accident research to SAMG requirements and implementation. The objective of this work package was to relate the progress made in the resolution of the SA issues to the practical matter of what results are required or have been used for the management of severe accidents. Clearly, the SAMG is the most important avenue employed by the regulatory organizations to assure themselves of the safe (from public perspective) performance of a nuclear plant in a postulated severe accident event. Work Package 3: Relevance of severe accident research to PSA and the risk informed regulatory approach. The objectives of this work package is to relate the results obtained by the severe accident research to the requirements of a PSA and of the new trend of employing the risk informed approach in promulgating regulations. Clearly a PSA identifies vulnerabilities in the knowledge base, however, their importance is decidedly plant specific. Nevertheless the uncertainties in the phenomenology or in resolution of issues lead to uncertainties in the PSA conclusions and in the adoption of the risk informed approach. Work Package 4: Questionnaire and the evaluation of responses to the questions. The purpose of this work package is to solicit the views of the regulatory organizations towards the results of the SA research and the benefits they have derived from it in terms of regulatory actions, or in the confidence they have gained

  3. Between Development and Environment: Uncertainties of Agrofuels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leon Sicard, Tomas Enrique

    2009-01-01

    This article examines the dominant agricultural model in Colombia of which the emergence of biofuels is an inevitable and major consequence. Some uncertainties and complexities of the introduction of biofuels and the use of genetically modified crops are analyzed, including a general reflection on the possibilities of producing biofuels on the…

  4. Identification of traffic accident risk-prone areas under low lighting conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Ivan

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Besides other non-behavioural factors, the low lighting conditions significantly influence the frequency of the traffic accidents in the urban environment. This paper intends to identify the impact of low lighting conditions on the traffic accidents in the city of Cluj-Napoca. The dependence degree between lighting and the number of traffic accidents was analyzed by the Pearson's correlation and the relation between the spatial distribution of traffic accidents and the lighting conditions was determined by the frequency ratio model. The vulnerable areas within the city were identified based on the calculation of the injured persons rate for the 0.5 km2 equally-sized areas uniformly distributed within the study area. The results have shown a strong linear dependence between the low lighting conditions and the number of traffic accidents in terms of three seasonal variations and a high probability of traffic accidents occurrence under the above-mentioned conditions, at the city entrances-exits, which represent also vulnerable areas within the study area. Knowing the linear dependence and the spatial relation between the low lighting and the number of traffic accidents, as well as the consequences induced by their occurrence enabled us to identify the high traffic accident risk areas in the city of Cluj-Napoca.

  5. Identification of traffic accident risk-prone areas under low-light conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivan, K.; Haidu, I.; Benedek, J.; Ciobanu, S. M.

    2015-09-01

    Besides other non-behavioural factors, low-light conditions significantly influence the frequency of traffic accidents in an urban environment. This paper intends to identify the impact of low-light conditions on traffic accidents in the city of Cluj-Napoca, Romania. The dependence degree between light and the number of traffic accidents was analysed using the Pearson correlation, and the relation between the spatial distribution of traffic accidents and the light conditions was determined by the frequency ratio model. The vulnerable areas within the city were identified based on the calculation of the injury rate for the 0.5 km2 areas uniformly distributed within the study area. The results show a strong linear correlation between the low-light conditions and the number of traffic accidents in terms of three seasonal variations and a high probability of traffic accident occurrence under the above-mentioned conditions at the city entrances/exits, which represent vulnerable areas within the study area. Knowing the linear dependence and the spatial relation between the low light and the number of traffic accidents, as well as the consequences induced by their occurrence, enabled us to identify the areas of high traffic accident risk in Cluj-Napoca.

  6. Accident risk and safety measures in the transport sector in Norway; Ulykkesrisiko og sikkerhetstiltak i transportsektoren

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-12-01

    The scope of the work described in this report was (1) to evaluate methods for risk mapping considering all of the different means of transport, (2) to evaluate the extent to which measures should be taken against various types of accidents, (3) to evaluate cost-benefit assessments of accident-reducing measures irrespective of the different means of transport, (4) to evaluate the preferences of measures/cost effectiveness of different measures within different sectors, and (4) to evaluate the possibility of improving the efficiency of possible measures. It also considers the risk situation for ferry service. In addition to the purely human aspect, traffic accidents constitute an expensive social problem. Yet it would be too costly to meet a potential requirement that traffic accidents should disappear. The resources used by society to combat accidents have to be seen in the light of (1) the profit that can be achieved compared to alternative use of the resources, and (2) the possible negative consequences of different safety measures on, for instance, travel time and the extent of the transport. It is pointed out that when accident risk is compared from one transport means to another, different relative positions are found depending on how risk is quantified. Thus, for instance, on average, per year 5 times as many people die in accidents involving private cars as in motor cycle accidents, while for the number of deaths per billion person kilometers the ratio is almost the opposite,1:6.5. 34 refs., 12 figs., 13 tabs.

  7. Global risk of radioactive fallout after major nuclear reactor accidents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lelieveld, J.; Kunkel, D.; Lawrence, M. G.

    2012-05-01

    Major reactor accidents of nuclear power plants are rare, yet the consequences are catastrophic. But what is meant by "rare"? And what can be learned from the Chernobyl and Fukushima incidents? Here we assess the cumulative, global risk of exposure to radioactivity due to atmospheric dispersion of gases and particles following severe nuclear accidents (the most severe ones on the International Nuclear Event Scale, INES 7), using particulate 137Cs and gaseous 131I as proxies for the fallout. Our results indicate that previously the occurrence of INES 7 major accidents and the risks of radioactive contamination have been underestimated. Using a global model of the atmosphere we compute that on average, in the event of a major reactor accident of any nuclear power plant worldwide, more than 90% of emitted 137Cs would be transported beyond 50 km and about 50% beyond 1000 km distance before being deposited. This corroborates that such accidents have large-scale and trans-boundary impacts. Although the emission strengths and atmospheric removal processes of 137Cs and 131I are quite different, the radioactive contamination patterns over land and the human exposure due to deposition are computed to be similar. High human exposure risks occur around reactors in densely populated regions, notably in West Europe and South Asia, where a major reactor accident can subject around 30 million people to radioactive contamination. The recent decision by Germany to phase out its nuclear reactors will reduce the national risk, though a large risk will still remain from the reactors in neighbouring countries.

  8. Global risk of radioactive fallout after major nuclear reactor accidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Lelieveld

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Major reactor accidents of nuclear power plants are rare, yet the consequences are catastrophic. But what is meant by "rare"? And what can be learned from the Chernobyl and Fukushima incidents? Here we assess the cumulative, global risk of exposure to radioactivity due to atmospheric dispersion of gases and particles following severe nuclear accidents (the most severe ones on the International Nuclear Event Scale, INES 7, using particulate 137Cs and gaseous 131I as proxies for the fallout. Our results indicate that previously the occurrence of INES 7 major accidents and the risks of radioactive contamination have been underestimated. Using a global model of the atmosphere we compute that on average, in the event of a major reactor accident of any nuclear power plant worldwide, more than 90% of emitted 137Cs would be transported beyond 50 km and about 50% beyond 1000 km distance before being deposited. This corroborates that such accidents have large-scale and trans-boundary impacts. Although the emission strengths and atmospheric removal processes of 137Cs and 131I are quite different, the radioactive contamination patterns over land and the human exposure due to deposition are computed to be similar. High human exposure risks occur around reactors in densely populated regions, notably in West Europe and South Asia, where a major reactor accident can subject around 30 million people to radioactive contamination. The recent decision by Germany to phase out its nuclear reactors will reduce the national risk, though a large risk will still remain from the reactors in neighbouring countries.

  9. The child accident repeater: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, J G

    1980-04-01

    The child accident repeater is defined as one who has at least three accidents that come to medical attention within a year. The accident situation has features in common with those of the child who has a single accident through simple "bad luck", but other factors predispose him to repeated injury. In the child who has a susceptible personality, a tendency for accident repetition may be due to a breakdown in adjustment to a stressful environment. Prevention of repeat accidents should involve the usual measures considered appropriate for all children as well as an attempt to provide treatment of significant maladjustment and modification of a stressful environment.

  10. Hindsight Bias in Cause Analysis of Accident

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Atsuo Murata; Yasunari Matsushita

    2014-01-01

    It is suggested that hindsight becomes an obstacle to the objective investigation of an accident, and that the proper countermeasures for the prevention of such an accident is impossible if we view the accident with hindsight. Therefore, it is important for organizational managers to prevent hindsight from occurring so that hindsight does not hinder objective and proper measures to be taken and this does not lead to a serious accident. In this study, a basic phenomenon potentially related to accidents, that is, hindsight was taken up, and an attempt was made to explore the phenomenon in order to get basically insights into the prevention of accidents caused by such a cognitive bias.

  11. Severe accident simulation at Olkiuoto

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tirkkonen, H.; Saarenpaeae, T. [Teollisuuden Voima Oy (TVO), Olkiluoto (Finland); Cliff Po, L.C. [Micro-Simulation Technology, Montville, NJ (United States)

    1995-09-01

    A personal computer-based simulator was developed for the Olkiluoto nuclear plant in Finland for training in severe accident management. The generic software PCTRAN was expanded to model the plant-specific features of the ABB Atom designed BWR including its containment over-pressure protection and filtered vent systems. Scenarios including core heat-up, hydrogen generation, core melt and vessel penetration were developed in this work. Radiation leakage paths and dose rate distribution are presented graphically for operator use in diagnosis and mitigation of accidents. Operating on an graphically for operator use in diagnosis and mitigation of accidents. Operating on an 486 DX2-66, PCTRAN-TVO achieves a speed about 15 times faster than real-time. A convenient and user-friendly graphic interface allows full interactive control. In this paper a review of the component models and verification runs are presented.

  12. Bathtub immersion accidents involving children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearn, J; Nixon, J

    1977-02-12

    A review of 19 consecutive serious bathtub immersion accidents (11 survivals, 8 fatalities) is presented. In all instances, consciousness was lost in the water. Unlike other childhood accidents which usually show a male predominance, the sexes are equally affected. The modal age is 11 months. Six separate causes of bath drownings and near-drownings have been identified, and in 14 of the 19 accidents, two or more causes were operating concurrently. Median estimated immersion time for survivals was four minutes, and five minutes for fatalities. The median depth of water was eight inches. An 'at risk' profile for home bathtub drownings is presented; this includes the youngest or second youngest child of a large family, a family of grade 4 to 7 sociooccupational status (congalton) and a family in which routine is temporarily broken.

  13. Internal Accident Report on EDH

    CERN Multimedia

    SC Department

    2006-01-01

    The A2 Safety Code requires that, the Internal Accident Report form must be filled in by the person concerned or any witness to ensure that all the relevant services are informed. Please note that an electronic version of this form has been elaborated in collaboration with SC-IE, HR-OPS-OP and IT-AIS. Whenever possible, the electronic form shall be used. The relative icon is available on the EDH Desktop, Other tasks page, under the Safety heading, or directly here: https://edh.cern.ch/Document/Accident/. If you have any questions, please contact the SC Secretariat, tel. 75097 Please notice that the Internal Accident Report is an integral part of the Safety Code A2 and does not replace the HS50.

  14. Fukushima accident study using MELCOR

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Randall O Gauntt

    2013-01-01

    The accidents at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station stunned the world as the sequences played out over severals days and videos of hydrogen explosions were televised as they took place.The accidents all resulted in severe damage to the reactor cores and releases of radioactivity to the environment despite heroic measures had taken by the operating personnel.The following paper provides some background into the development of these accidents and their root causes,chief among them,the prolonged station blackout conditions that isolated the reactors from their ultimate heat sink — the ocean.The interpretations given in this paper are summarized from a recently completed report funded by the United States Department of Energy (USDOE).

  15. Response Analysis on Electrical Pulses under Severe Nuclear Accident Temperature Conditions Using an Abnormal Signal Simulation Analysis Module

    OpenAIRE

    Kil-Mo Koo; Jin-Ho Song; Sang-Baik Kim; Kwang-Il Ahn; Won-Pil Baek; Kil-Nam Oh; Gyu-Tae Kim

    2012-01-01

    Unlike design basis accidents, some inherent uncertainties of the reliability of instrumentations are expected while subjected to harsh environments (e.g., high temperature and pressure, high humidity, and high radioactivity) occurring in severe nuclear accident conditions. Even under such conditions, an electrical signal should be within its expected range so that some mitigating actions can be taken based on the signal in the control room. For example, an industrial process control standard...

  16. A Bayesian ensemble of sensitivity measures for severe accident modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoseyni, Seyed Mohsen [Department of Basic Sciences, East Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Di Maio, Francesco, E-mail: francesco.dimaio@polimi.it [Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano (Italy); Vagnoli, Matteo [Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano (Italy); Zio, Enrico [Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano (Italy); Chair on System Science and Energetic Challenge, Fondation EDF – Electricite de France Ecole Centrale, Paris, and Supelec, Paris (France); Pourgol-Mohammad, Mohammad [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Sahand University of Technology, Tabriz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2015-12-15

    Highlights: • We propose a sensitivity analysis (SA) method based on a Bayesian updating scheme. • The Bayesian updating schemes adjourns an ensemble of sensitivity measures. • Bootstrap replicates of a severe accident code output are fed to the Bayesian scheme. • The MELCOR code simulates the fission products release of LOFT LP-FP-2 experiment. • Results are compared with those of traditional SA methods. - Abstract: In this work, a sensitivity analysis framework is presented to identify the relevant input variables of a severe accident code, based on an incremental Bayesian ensemble updating method. The proposed methodology entails: (i) the propagation of the uncertainty in the input variables through the severe accident code; (ii) the collection of bootstrap replicates of the input and output of limited number of simulations for building a set of finite mixture models (FMMs) for approximating the probability density function (pdf) of the severe accident code output of the replicates; (iii) for each FMM, the calculation of an ensemble of sensitivity measures (i.e., input saliency, Hellinger distance and Kullback–Leibler divergence) and the updating when a new piece of evidence arrives, by a Bayesian scheme, based on the Bradley–Terry model for ranking the most relevant input model variables. An application is given with respect to a limited number of simulations of a MELCOR severe accident model describing the fission products release in the LP-FP-2 experiment of the loss of fluid test (LOFT) facility, which is a scaled-down facility of a pressurized water reactor (PWR).

  17. The Black Hole Uncertainty Principle Correspondence

    CERN Document Server

    Carr, B J

    2014-01-01

    The Black Hole Uncertainty Principle correspondence proposes a connection between the Uncertainty Principle on microscopic scales and black holes on macroscopic scales. This is manifested in a unified expression for the Compton wavelength and Schwarzschild radius. It is a natural consequence of the Generalized Uncertainty Principle, which suggests corrections to the Uncertainty Principle as the energy increases towards the Planck value. It also entails corrections to the event horizon size as the black hole mass falls to the Planck value, leading to the concept of a Generalized Event Horizon. One implication of this is that there could be sub-Planckian black holes with a size of order their Compton wavelength. Loop quantum gravity suggests the existence of black holes with precisely this feature. The correspondence leads to a heuristic derivation of the black hole temperature and suggests how the Hawking formula is modified in the sub-Planckian regime.

  18. Heisenberg's uncertainty principle

    OpenAIRE

    Busch, Paul; Heinonen, Teiko; Lahti, Pekka

    2007-01-01

    Heisenberg's uncertainty principle is usually taken to express a limitation of operational possibilities imposed by quantum mechanics. Here we demonstrate that the full content of this principle also includes its positive role as a condition ensuring that mutually exclusive experimental options can be reconciled if an appropriate trade-off is accepted. The uncertainty principle is shown to appear in three manifestations, in the form of uncertainty relations: for the widths of the position and...

  19. Consequences of severe radioactive releases to Nordic Marine environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iosjpe, M.; Isaksson, M.; Joensen, H.P.

    that the considered severe accident cases, considered in this study, do not directly attach any specific Nordic nuclear power plant or any specific submarine type. The considered radioactive releases will, however, provide specified references for more extensive consideration of environmental consequences of severe......In the report, consequences of hypothetical severe nuclear accidents releases to Nordic marine environment are preliminary considered. The considered marine area comprises the Baltic Sea (Sweden, Denmark, Finland) and the North Atlantic (Iceland, Faroes, Norway) areas. The hypothetical severe...... of various elements and nuclides to marine environment. One recent reference is of course the Fukushima accident and estimated releases there. The marine flows and dilution circumstances around the Nordic nuclear power plants and in the Baltic Sea area in general, has been studied. Respectively marine flows...

  20. Uncertainty in artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Kanal, LN

    1986-01-01

    How to deal with uncertainty is a subject of much controversy in Artificial Intelligence. This volume brings together a wide range of perspectives on uncertainty, many of the contributors being the principal proponents in the controversy.Some of the notable issues which emerge from these papers revolve around an interval-based calculus of uncertainty, the Dempster-Shafer Theory, and probability as the best numeric model for uncertainty. There remain strong dissenting opinions not only about probability but even about the utility of any numeric method in this context.

  1. Uncertainty in hydrological signatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMillan, Hilary; Westerberg, Ida

    2015-04-01

    Information that summarises the hydrological behaviour or flow regime of a catchment is essential for comparing responses of different catchments to understand catchment organisation and similarity, and for many other modelling and water-management applications. Such information types derived as an index value from observed data are known as hydrological signatures, and can include descriptors of high flows (e.g. mean annual flood), low flows (e.g. mean annual low flow, recession shape), the flow variability, flow duration curve, and runoff ratio. Because the hydrological signatures are calculated from observed data such as rainfall and flow records, they are affected by uncertainty in those data. Subjective choices in the method used to calculate the signatures create a further source of uncertainty. Uncertainties in the signatures may affect our ability to compare different locations, to detect changes, or to compare future water resource management scenarios. The aim of this study was to contribute to the hydrological community's awareness and knowledge of data uncertainty in hydrological signatures, including typical sources, magnitude and methods for its assessment. We proposed a generally applicable method to calculate these uncertainties based on Monte Carlo sampling and demonstrated it for a variety of commonly used signatures. The study was made for two data rich catchments, the 50 km2 Mahurangi catchment in New Zealand and the 135 km2 Brue catchment in the UK. For rainfall data the uncertainty sources included point measurement uncertainty, the number of gauges used in calculation of the catchment spatial average, and uncertainties relating to lack of quality control. For flow data the uncertainty sources included uncertainties in stage/discharge measurement and in the approximation of the true stage-discharge relation by a rating curve. The resulting uncertainties were compared across the different signatures and catchments, to quantify uncertainty

  2. Uncertainty and global climate change research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tonn, B.E. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Weiher, R. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO (United States)

    1994-06-01

    The Workshop on Uncertainty and Global Climate Change Research March 22--23, 1994, in Knoxville, Tennessee. This report summarizes the results and recommendations of the workshop. The purpose of the workshop was to examine in-depth the concept of uncertainty. From an analytical point of view, uncertainty is a central feature of global climate science, economics and decision making. The magnitude and complexity of uncertainty surrounding global climate change has made it quite difficult to answer even the most simple and important of questions-whether potentially costly action is required now to ameliorate adverse consequences of global climate change or whether delay is warranted to gain better information to reduce uncertainties. A major conclusion of the workshop is that multidisciplinary integrated assessments using decision analytic techniques as a foundation is key to addressing global change policy concerns. First, uncertainty must be dealt with explicitly and rigorously since it is and will continue to be a key feature of analysis and recommendations on policy questions for years to come. Second, key policy questions and variables need to be explicitly identified, prioritized, and their uncertainty characterized to guide the entire scientific, modeling, and policy analysis process. Multidisciplinary integrated assessment techniques and value of information methodologies are best suited for this task. In terms of timeliness and relevance of developing and applying decision analytic techniques, the global change research and policy communities are moving rapidly toward integrated approaches to research design and policy analysis.

  3. Joint research project WASA-BOSS: Further development and application of severe accident codes. Assessment and optimization of accident management measures. Project B: Accident analyses for pressurized water reactors with the application of the ATHLET-CD code; Verbundprojekt WASA-BOSS: Weiterentwicklung und Anwendung von Severe Accident Codes. Bewertung und Optimierung von Stoerfallmassnahmen. Teilprojekt B: Druckwasserreaktor-Stoerfallanalysen unter Verwendung des Severe-Accident-Codes ATHLET-CD

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jobst, Matthias; Kliem, Soeren; Kozmenkov, Yaroslav; Wilhelm, Polina

    2017-02-15

    Within the framework of the project an ATHLET-CD input deck for a generic German PWR of type KONVOI has been created. This input deck was applied to the simulation of severe accidents from the accident categories station blackout (SBO) and small-break loss-of-coolant accidents (SBLOCA). The complete accident transient from initial event at full power until the damage of reactor pressure vessel (RPV) is covered and all relevant severe accident phenomena are modelled: start of core heat up, fission product release, melting of fuel and absorber material, oxidation and release of hydrogen, relocation of molten material inside the core, relocation to the lower plenum, damage and failure of the RPV. The model has been applied to the analysis of preventive and mitigative accident management measures for SBO and SBLOCA transients. Therefore, the measures primary side depressurization (PSD), injection to the primary circuit by mobile pumps and for SBLOCA the delayed injection by the cold leg hydro-accumulators have been investigated and the assumptions and start criteria of these measures have been varied. The time evolutions of the transients and time margins for the initiation of additional measures have been assessed. An uncertainty and sensitivity study has been performed for the early phase of one SBO scenario with PSD (until the start of core melt). In addition to that, a code -to-code comparison between ATHLET-CD and the severe accident code MELCOR has been carried out.

  4. The Thule accident: Assessment of radiation doses from terrestrial radioactive contamination

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ulbak, K. (National Institute of Radiation Protection, Herlev (Denmark))

    2011-12-15

    Risoe DTU has carried out research on the terrestrial contamination in the Thule area after the radioactive contents of four nuclear weapons were dispersed following the crash of an American B-52 bomber in 1968. The results of Risoe DTU's studies are described in the report Thule-2007 - Investigation of radioactive pollution on land, which covers all measurements that were carried out on land in Thule in the years 2003, 2006, 2007 and 2008. The present report uses Risoe DTU's report as a basis for assessing radiation doses and consequently the risk for individuals as a result of terrestrial radioactive contamination in the Thule area. The assessment of radiation doses involves a number of conservative assumptions, estimates, and measurements, all of which are subject to considerable uncertainty. In some cases, models have been used based on experiences from other contaminated areas elsewhere in the world, which are subject to climatic and other conditions that diverge from those in the Thule area. The calculated doses are thus associated with considerable uncertainty, which must be taken into account when the results are used for comparison and when the risks of staying in the Thule area are assessed. It has therefore been chosen to provide the assessed radiation doses in the form of indicative orders of magnitude, which are applicable to everyone who might stay in the area, across various age groups. If the estimated doses in this report are combined with the National Institute of Radiation Protection's recommended reference level for contamination as a result of the Thule Accident of 1 mSv/year, the assessed magnitudes of radiation doses for inhalation and ingestion as exposure pathways are many orders of magnitude below the reference level (10,000-10 million times smaller). The wound contamination exposure pathway has a magnitude of radiation dose that is smaller than the reference level by a factor of 10-1000, and it should be recalled that the

  5. Construction of a technique plan repository and evaluation system based on AHP group decision-making for emergency treatment and disposal in chemical pollution accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shi, Shenggang [College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083 (China); College of Chemistry, Baotou Teachers’ College, Baotou 014030 (China); Cao, Jingcan; Feng, Li; Liang, Wenyan [College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083 (China); Zhang, Liqiu, E-mail: zhangliqiu@163.com [College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083 (China)

    2014-07-15

    Highlights: • Different chemical pollution accidents were simplified using the event tree analysis. • Emergency disposal technique plan repository of chemicals accidents was constructed. • The technique evaluation index system of chemicals accidents disposal was developed. • A combination of group decision and analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was employed. • Group decision introducing similarity and diversity factor was used for data analysis. - Abstract: The environmental pollution resulting from chemical accidents has caused increasingly serious concerns. Therefore, it is very important to be able to determine in advance the appropriate emergency treatment and disposal technology for different types of chemical accidents. However, the formulation of an emergency plan for chemical pollution accidents is considerably difficult due to the substantial uncertainty and complexity of such accidents. This paper explains how the event tree method was used to create 54 different scenarios for chemical pollution accidents, based on the polluted medium, dangerous characteristics and properties of chemicals involved. For each type of chemical accident, feasible emergency treatment and disposal technology schemes were established, considering the areas of pollution source control, pollutant non-proliferation, contaminant elimination and waste disposal. Meanwhile, in order to obtain the optimum emergency disposal technology schemes as soon as the chemical pollution accident occurs from the plan repository, the technique evaluation index system was developed based on group decision-improved analytical hierarchy process (AHP), and has been tested by using a sudden aniline pollution accident that occurred in a river in December 2012.

  6. How to reduce the number of accidents

    CERN Multimedia

    2012-01-01

    Among the safety objectives that the Director-General has established for CERN in 2012 is a reduction in the number of workplace accidents.   The best way to prevent workplace accidents is to learn from experience. This is why any accident, fire, instance of pollution, or even a near-miss, should be reported using the EDH form that can be found here. All accident reports are followed up. The departments investigate all accidents that result in sick leave, as well as all the more common categories of accidents at CERN, essentially falls (slipping, falling on stairs, etc.), regardless of whether or not they lead to sick leave. By studying the accident causes that come to light in this way, it is possible to take preventive action to avoid such accidents in the future. If you have any questions, the HSE Unit will be happy to answer them. Contact us at safety-general@cern.ch. HSE Unit

  7. Study on Nuclear Accident Precursors Using AHP and BBN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sujin Park

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Most of the nuclear accident reports used to indicate the implicit precursors which are not easily quantified as underlying factors. The current Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA is capable of quantifying the importance of accident causes in limited scope. It was, therefore, difficult to achieve quantifiable decision-making for resource allocation. In this study, the methodology which facilitates quantifying these precursors and a case study were presented. First, four implicit precursors have been obtained by evaluating the causality and hierarchy structure of various accident factors. Eventually, it turned out that they represent the lack of knowledge. After four precursors are selected, subprecursors were investigated and their cause-consequence relationship was implemented by Bayesian Belief Network (BBN. To prioritize the precursors, the prior probability is initially estimated by expert judgment and updated upon observations. The pair-wise importance between precursors is calculated by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP and the results are converted into node probability tables of the BBN model. Using this method, the sensitivity and the posterior probability of each precursor can be analyzed so that it enables making prioritization for the factors. We tried to prioritize the lessons learned from Fukushima accident to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed methodology.

  8. Mental health consequences of the Chernobyl disaster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromet, Evelyn J

    2012-03-01

    The psychosocial consequences of disasters have been studied for more than 100 years. The most common mental health consequences are depression, anxiety, post-traumatic stress disorder, medically unexplained somatic symptoms, and stigma. The excess morbidity rate of psychiatric disorders in the first year after a disaster is in the order of 20%. Disasters involving radiation are particularly pernicious because the exposure is invisible and universally dreaded, and can pose a long-term threat to health. After the Chernobyl disaster, studies of clean-up workers (liquidators) and adults from contaminated areas found a two-fold increase in post-traumatic stress and other mood and anxiety disorders and significantly poorer subjective ratings of health. Among liquidators, the most important risk factor was severity of exposure. In general population samples, the major risk factor was perceived exposure to harmful levels of radiation. These findings are consistent with results from A-bomb survivors and populations studied after the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant accident. With regard to children, apart from findings from ecological studies that lack direct data on radiation or other teratologic exposures and local studies in Kiev, the epidemiologic evidence suggests that neither radiation exposure nor the stress of growing up in the shadow of the accident was associated with emotional disorders, cognitive dysfunction, or impaired academic performance. Thus, based on the studies of adults, the Chernobyl Forum concluded that mental health was the largest public health problem unleashed by the accident. Since mental health is a leading cause of disability, physical morbidity, and mortality, health monitoring after radiation accidents like Fukushima should include standard measures of well-being. Moreover, given the comorbidity of mental and physical health, the findings support the value of training non-psychiatrist physicians in recognizing and treating common mental

  9. Trismus: An unusual presentation following road accident

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thakur Jagdeep

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Trismus due to trauma usually follows road accidents leading to massive faciomaxillary injury. In the literature there is no report of a foreign body causing trismus following a road accident, this rare case is an exception. We present a case of isolated presentation of trismus following a road accident. This case report stresses on the thorough evaluation of patients presenting with trismus following a road accident.

  10. The Physics of Traffic Accidents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knight, Peter

    1975-01-01

    Shows how physics can be used to analyze and prevent traffic accidents by determining critical speeds on curves, the behavior of motor cycles and stability of articulated vehicles, and the visibility that is needed to make a minor road junction safe. (MLH)

  11. Work Accidents and Professional Diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Doru Hauptmann

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available The major accident is defined as “any event occurred, like an emission of dangerous materials or agents, which emerges from uncontrolled evolutions along the exploitation of any objective that leads to the immediate or delayed occurrence of serious dangers with impact over human health or over the environment, inside or outside the objective in which are involved one or more than one dangerous materials”.The dangerous phenomenon is a potential source of harms. In the ambit of industrial risks of accidental origins, this expression more frequently refers to physical phenomena like conflagrations, explosions, toxic gases dispersion, etc.Any accident scenario relates itself to the potential effects at the level of environmental “targets”. In the case of major accidents, we can distinguish the following categories of “targets”: human (employees of the objective, working or resident people in the nearby of the emplacement; the installation or equipments that may stay at the origin of the accidents (dangerous equipments; certain all-important equipments to ensure the safety level of the installation (critical security equipments: control rooms, civil fire brigade headquarters, etc; goods and structures situated in the installation’ environment (ground water, rivers, soil, flora, fauna.

  12. New technology for accident prevention

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Byne, P. [Shiftwork Solutions, Vancouver, BC (Canada)

    2006-07-01

    This power point presentation examined the effects of fatigue in the workplace and presented 3 technologies designed to prevent or monitor fatigue. The relationship between mental fatigue, circadian rhythms and cognitive performance was explored. Details of vigilance related degradations in the workplace were presented, as well as data on fatigue-related accidents and a time-line of meter-reading errors. It was noted that the direct cause of the Exxon Valdez disaster was sleep deprivation. Fatigue related accidents during the Gulf War were reviewed. The effects of fatigue on workplace performance include impaired logical reasoning and decision-making; impaired vigilance and attention; slowed mental operations; loss of situational awareness; slowed reaction time; and short cuts and lapses in optional or self-paced behaviours. New technologies to prevent fatigue-related accidents include (1) the driver fatigue monitor, an infra-red camera and computer that tracks a driver's slow eye-lid closures to prevent fatigue related accidents; (2) a fatigue avoidance scheduling tool (FAST) which collects actigraphs of sleep activity; and (3) SAFTE, a sleep, activity, fatigue and effectiveness model. refs., tabs., figs.

  13. Corporate Cost of Occupational Accidents

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rikhardsson, Pall M.; Impgaard, M.

    2004-01-01

    The systematic accident cost analysis (SACA) project was carried out during 2001 by The Aarhus School of Business and PricewaterhouseCoopers Denmark with financial support from The Danish National Working Environment Authority. Its focused on developing and testing a method for evaluating...

  14. Crime, accidents and social control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Junger, Marianne; Terlouw, Gert-Jan; van der Heijden, Peter G.M.

    1995-01-01

    This paper addresses to questions. (1) Is there a demonstrable relation between accidents and crime, does this relation hold for each type of crime and each means of transport, and does it subsist after controlling for age and gender? (2) Can social control theory explain involvements in both

  15. The radiological assessment system for consequence analysis - RASCAL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sjoreen, A.L. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Ramsdell, J.V. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States); Athey, G.F. [Athey Consulting, Charles Town, WV (United States)] [and others

    1996-04-01

    The Radiological Assessment System for Consequence Analysis, Version 2.1 (RASCAL 2.1) has been developed for use during a response to radiological emergencies. The model estimates doses for comparison with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Protective Action Guides (PAGs) and thresholds for acute health effects. RASCAL was designed to be used by U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) personnel who report to the site of a nuclear accident to conduct an independent evaluation of dose and consequence projections and personnel who conduct training and drills on emergency responses. It allows consideration of the dominant aspects of the source term, transport, dose, and consequences. RASCAL consists of three computational tools: ST-DOSE, FM-DOSE, and DECAY. ST-DOSE computes source term, atmospheric transport, and dose to man from accidental airborne releases of radionuclides. The source-term calculations are appropriate for accidents at U.S. power reactors. FM-DOSE computes doses from environmental concentrations of radionuclides in the air and on the ground. DECAY computes radiological decay and daughter in-growth. RASCAL 2.1 is a DOS application that can be run under Windows 3.1 and 95. RASCAL has been the starting point for other accident consequence models, notably INTERRAS, an international version of RASCAL, and HASCAL, an expansion of RASCAL that will model radiological, biological, and chemical accidents.

  16. Detection and analysis of accident black spots with even small accident figures.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oppe, S.

    1982-01-01

    Accident black spots are usually defined as road locations with high accident potentials. In order to detect such hazardous locations we have to know the probability of an accident for a traffic situation of some kind, or the mean number of accidents for some unit of time. In almost all procedures

  17. Detection and analysis of accident black spots with even small accident figures.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oppe, S.

    1982-01-01

    Accident black spots are usually defined as road locations with high accident potentials. In order to detect such hazardous locations we have to know the probability of an accident for a traffic situation of some kind, or the mean number of accidents for some unit of time. In almost all procedures

  18. Accidents and undetermined deaths: re-evaluation of nationwide samples from the Scandinavian countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tøllefsen, Ingvild Maria; Thiblin, Ingemar; Helweg-Larsen, Karin; Hem, Erlend; Kastrup, Marianne; Nyberg, Ullakarin; Rogde, Sidsel; Zahl, Per-Henrik; Østevold, Gunvor; Ekeberg, Øivind

    2016-05-27

    National mortality statistics should be comparable between countries that use the World Health Organization's International Classification of Diseases. Distinguishing between manners of death, especially suicides and accidents, is a challenge. Knowledge about accidents is important in prevention of both accidents and suicides. The aim of the present study was to assess the reliability of classifying deaths as accidents and undetermined manner of deaths in the three Scandinavian countries and to compare cross-national differences. The cause of death registers in Norway, Sweden and Denmark provided data from 2008 for samples of 600 deaths from each country, of which 200 were registered as suicides, 200 as accidents or undetermined manner of deaths and 200 as natural deaths. The information given to the eight experts was identical to the information used by the Cause of Death Register. This included death certificates, and if available external post-mortem examinations, forensic autopsy reports and police reports. In total, 69 % (Sweden and Norway) and 78 % (Denmark) of deaths registered in the official mortality statistics as accidents were confirmed by the experts. In the majority of the cases where disagreement was seen, the experts reclassified accidents to undetermined manner of death, in 26, 25 and 19 % of cases, respectively. Few cases were reclassified as suicides or natural deaths. Among the extracted accidents, the experts agreed least with the official mortality statistics concerning drowning and poisoning accidents. They also reported most uncertainty in these categories of accidents. In a second re-evaluation, where more information was made available, the Norwegian psychiatrist and forensic pathologist increased their agreement with the official mortality statistics from 76 to 87 %, and from 85 to 88 %, respectively, regarding the Norwegian and Swedish datasets. Among the extracted undetermined deaths in the Swedish dataset, the two experts

  19. Intersection layout, traffic volumes and accidents.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Poppe, F.

    1988-01-01

    This paper reports on the accident research carried out as a part of a large project started in 1983. For this accident research an inventory was made of a large number of intersections.Recorded were layout features, accident data and estimates of traffic volumes. Attention will be given to the

  20. 48 CFR 836.513 - Accident prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Accident prevention. 836... prevention. The contracting officer must insert the clause at 852.236-87, Accident Prevention, in solicitations and contracts for construction that contain the clause at FAR 52.236-13, Accident Prevention....

  1. 48 CFR 1836.513 - Accident prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 true Accident prevention. 1836... 1836.513 Accident prevention. The contracting officer must insert the clause at 1852.223-70, Safety and Health, in lieu of FAR clause 52.236-13, Accident Prevention, and its Alternate I....

  2. 48 CFR 636.513 - Accident prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Accident prevention. 636... CONTRACTING CONSTRUCTION AND ARCHITECT-ENGINEER CONTRACTS Contract Clauses 636.513 Accident prevention. (a) In... contracting activities shall insert DOSAR 652.236-70, Accident Prevention, in lieu of FAR clause...

  3. Barriers to learning from incidents and accidents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dechy, N.; Dien, Y.; Drupsteen, L.; Felicio, A.; Cunha, C.; Roed-Larsen, S.; Marsden, E.; Tulonen, T.; Stoop, J.; Strucic, M.; Vetere Arellano, A.L.; Vorm, J.K.J. van der; Benner, L.

    2015-01-01

    This document provides an overview of knowledge concerning barriers to learning from incidents and accidents. It focuses on learning from accident investigations, public inquiries and operational experience feedback, in industrial sectors that are exposed to major accident hazards. The document disc

  4. Feedback versus uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Nooyen, R.R.P.; Hrachowitz, M.; Kolechkina, A.G.

    2014-01-01

    Even without uncertainty about the model structure or parameters, the output of a hydrological model run still contains several sources of uncertainty. These are: measurement errors affecting the input, the transition from continuous time and space to discrete time and space, which causes loss of in

  5. Chance and Uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Capel, H.W.; Cramer, J.S.; Estevez-Uscanga, O.

    1995-01-01

    'Uncertainty and chance' is a subject with a broad span, in that there is no academic discipline or walk of life that is not beset by uncertainty and chance. In this book a range of approaches is represented by authors from varied disciplines: natural sciences, mathematics, social sciences and medic

  6. Guide for Uncertainty Communication

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wardekker, J.A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/306644398; Kloprogge, P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/306644312; Petersen, A.C.; Janssen, P.H.M.; van der Sluijs, J.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073427489

    2013-01-01

    Dealing with uncertainty, in terms of analysis and communication, is an important and distinct topic for PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. Without paying adequate attention to the role and implications of uncertainty, research and assessment results may be of limited value and could

  7. Computing with Epistemic Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    modified the input uncertainties in any way. And by avoiding the need for simulation, various assumptions and selection of specific sampling...strategies that may affect results are also avoided . According with the Principle of Maximum Uncertainty , epistemic intervals represent the highest input...

  8. Analysing truck position data to study roundabout accident risk

    OpenAIRE

    Kamla, Jwan Jameel Shekh Mohammed

    2016-01-01

    In order to reduce accident risk, highway authorities prioritise maintenance budgets partly based upon previous accident history. However, as accident rates have continued to fall in most contexts, this approach has become problematic as accident ‘black spots’ have been treated and the number of accidents at any individual site has fallen. Another way of identifying sites of higher accident risk might be to identify near-miss accidents (where an accident nearly happened, but was avoided), whi...

  9. A preliminary uncertainty analysis of phenomenological inputs in TEXAS-V code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, S. H.; Kim, H. D.; Ahn, K. I. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2010-10-15

    Uncertainty analysis is important step in safety analysis of nuclear power plants. The better estimate for the computer codes is on the increase instead of conservative codes. These efforts aim to get more precise evaluation of safety margins, and aim at determining the rate of change in the prediction of codes with one or more input parameters varies within its range of interest. From this point of view, a severe accident uncertainty analysis system, SAUNA, has been improved for TEXAS-V FCI uncertainty analysis. The main objective of this paper is to present the TEXAS FCI uncertainty analysis results implemented through the SAUNA code

  10. Optimal compensation for temporal uncertainty in movement planning.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Todd E Hudson

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Motor control requires the generation of a precise temporal sequence of control signals sent to the skeletal musculature. We describe an experiment that, for good performance, requires human subjects to plan movements taking into account uncertainty in their movement duration and the increase in that uncertainty with increasing movement duration. We do this by rewarding movements performed within a specified time window, and penalizing slower movements in some conditions and faster movements in others. Our results indicate that subjects compensated for their natural duration-dependent temporal uncertainty as well as an overall increase in temporal uncertainty that was imposed experimentally. Their compensation for temporal uncertainty, both the natural duration-dependent and imposed overall components, was nearly optimal in the sense of maximizing expected gain in the task. The motor system is able to model its temporal uncertainty and compensate for that uncertainty so as to optimize the consequences of movement.

  11. Uncertainty theory. 2. ed.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu Baoding [Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China). Uncertainty Theory Lab.

    2007-07-01

    Uncertainty theory is a branch of mathematics based on normality, monotonicity, self-duality, and countable subadditivity axioms. The goal of uncertainty theory is to study the behavior of uncertain phenomena such as fuzziness and randomness. The main topics include probability theory, credibility theory, and chance theory. For this new edition the entire text has been totally rewritten. More importantly, the chapters on chance theory and uncertainty theory are completely new. This book provides a self-contained, comprehensive and up-to-date presentation of uncertainty theory. The purpose is to equip the readers with an axiomatic approach to deal with uncertainty. Mathematicians, researchers, engineers, designers, and students in the field of mathematics, information science, operations research, industrial engineering, computer science, artificial intelligence, and management science will find this work a stimulating and useful reference. (orig.)

  12. Economic uncertainty and econophysics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schinckus, Christophe

    2009-10-01

    The objective of this paper is to provide a methodological link between econophysics and economics. I will study a key notion of both fields: uncertainty and the ways of thinking about it developed by the two disciplines. After having presented the main economic theories of uncertainty (provided by Knight, Keynes and Hayek), I show how this notion is paradoxically excluded from the economic field. In economics, uncertainty is totally reduced by an a priori Gaussian framework-in contrast to econophysics, which does not use a priori models because it works directly on data. Uncertainty is then not shaped by a specific model, and is partially and temporally reduced as models improve. This way of thinking about uncertainty has echoes in the economic literature. By presenting econophysics as a Knightian method, and a complementary approach to a Hayekian framework, this paper shows that econophysics can be methodologically justified from an economic point of view.

  13. Physical Uncertainty Bounds (PUB)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vaughan, Diane Elizabeth [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Preston, Dean L. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-03-19

    This paper introduces and motivates the need for a new methodology for determining upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulations of engineered systems due to limited fidelity in the composite continuum-level physics models needed to simulate the systems. We show that traditional uncertainty quantification methods provide, at best, a lower bound on this uncertainty. We propose to obtain bounds on the simulation uncertainties by first determining bounds on the physical quantities or processes relevant to system performance. By bounding these physics processes, as opposed to carrying out statistical analyses of the parameter sets of specific physics models or simply switching out the available physics models, one can obtain upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulated quantities of interest.

  14. Measurement uncertainty and probability

    CERN Document Server

    Willink, Robin

    2013-01-01

    A measurement result is incomplete without a statement of its 'uncertainty' or 'margin of error'. But what does this statement actually tell us? By examining the practical meaning of probability, this book discusses what is meant by a '95 percent interval of measurement uncertainty', and how such an interval can be calculated. The book argues that the concept of an unknown 'target value' is essential if probability is to be used as a tool for evaluating measurement uncertainty. It uses statistical concepts, such as a conditional confidence interval, to present 'extended' classical methods for evaluating measurement uncertainty. The use of the Monte Carlo principle for the simulation of experiments is described. Useful for researchers and graduate students, the book also discusses other philosophies relating to the evaluation of measurement uncertainty. It employs clear notation and language to avoid the confusion that exists in this controversial field of science.

  15. Economic consequences of aviation system disruptions: A reduced-form computable general equilibrium analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Zhenhua; Rose, Adam Z.; Prager, Fynnwin; Chatterjee, Samrat

    2017-01-01

    The state of the art approach to economic consequence analysis (ECA) is computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling. However, such models contain thousands of equations and cannot readily be incorporated into computerized systems used by policy analysts to yield estimates of economic impacts of various types of transportation system failures due to natural hazards, human related attacks or technological accidents. This paper presents a reduced-form approach to simplify the analytical content of CGE models to make them more transparent and enhance their utilization potential. The reduced-form CGE analysis is conducted by first running simulations one hundred times, varying key parameters, such as magnitude of the initial shock, duration, location, remediation, and resilience, according to a Latin Hypercube sampling procedure. Statistical analysis is then applied to the “synthetic data” results in the form of both ordinary least squares and quantile regression. The analysis yields linear equations that are incorporated into a computerized system and utilized along with Monte Carlo simulation methods for propagating uncertainties in economic consequences. Although our demonstration and discussion focuses on aviation system disruptions caused by terrorist attacks, the approach can be applied to a broad range of threat scenarios.

  16. Consequence modeling for nuclear weapons probabilistic cost/benefit analyses of safety retrofits

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harvey, T.F.; Peters, L.; Serduke, F.J.D.; Hall, C.; Stephens, D.R.

    1998-01-01

    The consequence models used in former studies of costs and benefits of enhanced safety retrofits are considered for (1) fuel fires; (2) non-nuclear detonations; and, (3) unintended nuclear detonations. Estimates of consequences were made using a representative accident location, i.e., an assumed mixed suburban-rural site. We have explicitly quantified land- use impacts and human-health effects (e.g. , prompt fatalities, prompt injuries, latent cancer fatalities, low- levels of radiation exposure, and clean-up areas). Uncertainty in the wind direction is quantified and used in a Monte Carlo calculation to estimate a range of results for a fuel fire with uncertain respirable amounts of released Pu. We define a nuclear source term and discuss damage levels of concern. Ranges of damages are estimated by quantifying health impacts and property damages. We discuss our dispersal and prompt effects models in some detail. The models used to loft the Pu and fission products and their particle sizes are emphasized.

  17. PIV uncertainty propagation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sciacchitano, Andrea; Wieneke, Bernhard

    2016-08-01

    This paper discusses the propagation of the instantaneous uncertainty of PIV measurements to statistical and instantaneous quantities of interest derived from the velocity field. The expression of the uncertainty of vorticity, velocity divergence, mean value and Reynolds stresses is derived. It is shown that the uncertainty of vorticity and velocity divergence requires the knowledge of the spatial correlation between the error of the x and y particle image displacement, which depends upon the measurement spatial resolution. The uncertainty of statistical quantities is often dominated by the random uncertainty due to the finite sample size and decreases with the square root of the effective number of independent samples. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to assess the accuracy of the uncertainty propagation formulae. Furthermore, three experimental assessments are carried out. In the first experiment, a turntable is used to simulate a rigid rotation flow field. The estimated uncertainty of the vorticity is compared with the actual vorticity error root-mean-square, with differences between the two quantities within 5-10% for different interrogation window sizes and overlap factors. A turbulent jet flow is investigated in the second experimental assessment. The reference velocity, which is used to compute the reference value of the instantaneous flow properties of interest, is obtained with an auxiliary PIV system, which features a higher dynamic range than the measurement system. Finally, the uncertainty quantification of statistical quantities is assessed via PIV measurements in a cavity flow. The comparison between estimated uncertainty and actual error demonstrates the accuracy of the proposed uncertainty propagation methodology.

  18. Cold Vacuum Drying facility design basis accident analysis documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    CROWE, R.D.

    2000-08-08

    This document provides the detailed accident analysis to support HNF-3553, Annex B, Spent Nuclear Fuel Project Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR), ''Cold Vacuum Drying Facility Final Safety Analysis Report.'' All assumptions, parameters, and models used to provide the analysis of the design basis accidents are documented to support the conclusions in the FSAR. The calculations in this document address the design basis accidents (DBAs) selected for analysis in HNF-3553, ''Spent Nuclear Fuel Project Final Safety Analysis Report'', Annex B, ''Cold Vacuum Drying Facility Final Safety Analysis Report.'' The objective is to determine the quantity of radioactive particulate available for release at any point during processing at the Cold Vacuum Drying Facility (CVDF) and to use that quantity to determine the amount of radioactive material released during the DBAs. The radioactive material released is used to determine dose consequences to receptors at four locations, and the dose consequences are compared with the appropriate evaluation guidelines and release limits to ascertain the need for preventive and mitigative controls.

  19. Accident scenarios of the TRIGA Mark II reactor in Vienna

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Villa, Mario, E-mail: mvilla@ati.ac.a [Vienna University of Technology, Atominstitut, Stadionallee 2, 1020 Wien (Austria); Haydn, Markus [Vienna University of Technology, Atominstitut, Stadionallee 2, 1020 Wien (Austria); Steinhauser, Georg, E-mail: georg.steinhauser@ati.ac.a [Vienna University of Technology, Atominstitut, Stadionallee 2, 1020 Wien (Austria); Boeck, Helmuth [Vienna University of Technology, Atominstitut, Stadionallee 2, 1020 Wien (Austria)

    2010-12-15

    The safety report of the TRIGA Mark II reactor in Vienna includes three accident scenarios and their deterministic dose consequences to the environment. The destruction of the cladding of the most activated fuel element, the destruction of all fuel elements and a plane crash were considered scenarios in that report. The calculations were made in 1978 with the software program named STRISK. In this paper, the program package PC Cosyma was applied on the TRIGA Mark II reactor in Vienna and the deterministic consequences of the scenarios to the environment were updated. The fission product inventories of all fuel elements were calculated with ORIGEN2. To get meteorological data of the atmospheric condition around the release area, a weather station was installed. The release parameters were taken from the safety report or were replaced by worst case parameters. This paper focuses on two accident scenarios: the destruction of the cladding of the fuel element with the highest activity content and the case of a large plane crash. The current accident scenarios show good agreement with the calculations from 1978, hence no technical modifications in the safety report of the TRIGA reactor Vienna were necessary. Even in the very worst case scenario - complete destruction of all fuel elements in a large plane crash - the expected doses in the Atominstitut's neighborhood remain moderate.

  20. Accident sequence precursor analysis level 2/3 model development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lui, C.H. [Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States); Galyean, W.J.; Brownson, D.A. [Idaho National Engineering Lab., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)] [and others

    1997-02-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission`s Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) program currently uses simple Level 1 models to assess the conditional core damage probability for operational events occurring in commercial nuclear power plants (NPP). Since not all accident sequences leading to core damage will result in the same radiological consequences, it is necessary to develop simple Level 2/3 models that can be used to analyze the response of the NPP containment structure in the context of a core damage accident, estimate the magnitude of the resulting radioactive releases to the environment, and calculate the consequences associated with these releases. The simple Level 2/3 model development work was initiated in 1995, and several prototype models have been completed. Once developed, these simple Level 2/3 models are linked to the simple Level 1 models to provide risk perspectives for operational events. This paper describes the methods implemented for the development of these simple Level 2/3 ASP models, and the linkage process to the existing Level 1 models.

  1. Advanced accident sequence precursor analysis level 2 models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Galyean, W.J.; Brownson, D.A.; Rempe, J.L. [and others

    1996-03-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Accident Sequence Precursor program pursues the ultimate objective of performing risk significant evaluations on operational events (precursors) occurring in commercial nuclear power plants. To achieve this objective, the Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research is supporting the development of simple probabilistic risk assessment models for all commercial nuclear power plants (NPP) in the U.S. Presently, only simple Level 1 plant models have been developed which estimate core damage frequencies. In order to provide a true risk perspective, the consequences associated with postulated core damage accidents also need to be considered. With the objective of performing risk evaluations in an integrated and consistent manner, a linked event tree approach which propagates the front end results to back end was developed. This approach utilizes simple plant models that analyze the response of the NPP containment structure in the context of a core damage accident, estimate the magnitude and timing of a radioactive release to the environment, and calculate the consequences for a given release. Detailed models and results from previous studies, such as the NUREG-1150 study, are used to quantify these simple models. These simple models are then linked to the existing Level 1 models, and are evaluated using the SAPHIRE code. To demonstrate the approach, prototypic models have been developed for a boiling water reactor, Peach Bottom, and a pressurized water reactor, Zion.

  2. [Hanggliding accidents. Distribution of injuries and accident analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballmer, F T; Jakob, R P

    1989-12-01

    Paragliding--a relatively new sport to Switzerland--brought 23 patients with 48 injuries (38% lower limb and 29% spinal) within a period of 8 months to the Inselspital University hospital in Berne. The aim of the study in characterizing these injuries is to formulate some guidelines towards prevention. With over 90% of accidents occurring at either take off or landing, emphasis on better training for the beginner is proposed with strict guidelines for the more experienced pilot flying in unfavourable conditions.

  3. Preliminary Modeling of Accident Tolerant Fuel Concepts under Accident Conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gamble, Kyle A.; Hales, Jason D.

    2016-12-01

    The catastrophic events that occurred at the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear power plant in 2011 have led to widespread interest in research of alternative fuels and claddings that are proposed to be accident tolerant. Thus, the United States Department of Energy through its NEAMS (Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation) program has funded an Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) High Impact Problem (HIP). The ATF HIP is funded for a three-year period. The purpose of the HIP is to perform research into two potential accident tolerant concepts and provide an in-depth report to the Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC) describing the behavior of the concepts, both of which are being considered for inclusion in a lead test assembly scheduled for placement into a commercial reactor in 2022. The initial focus of the HIP is on uranium silicide fuel and iron-chromium-aluminum (FeCrAl) alloy cladding. Utilizing the expertise of three national laboratory participants (INL, LANL, and ANL) a comprehensive mulitscale approach to modeling is being used including atomistic modeling, molecular dynamics, rate theory, phase-field, and fuel performance simulations. In this paper, we present simulations of two proposed accident tolerant fuel systems: U3Si2 fuel with Zircaloy-4 cladding, and UO2 fuel with FeCrAl cladding. The simulations investigate the fuel performance response of the proposed ATF systems under Loss of Coolant and Station Blackout conditions using the BISON code. Sensitivity analyses are completed using Sandia National Laboratories’ DAKOTA software to determine which input parameters (e.g., fuel specific heat) have the greatest influence on the output metrics of interest (e.g., fuel centerline temperature). Early results indicate that each concept has significant advantages as well as areas of concern. Further work is required prior to formulating the proposition report for the Advanced Fuels Campaign.

  4. Fission product release phenomena during core melt accidents in metal fueled heavy water reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ellison, P G; Hyder, M L; Monson, P R; Randolph, H W [Westinghouse Savannah River Co., Aiken, SC (USA); Hagrman, D L [EG and G Idaho, Inc., Idaho Falls, ID (USA); McClure, P R; Leonard, M T [Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (USA)

    1990-01-01

    The phenomena that determine fission product release rates from a core melting accident in a metal-fueled, heavy water reactor are described in this paper. This information is obtained from the analysis of the current metal fuel experimental data base and from the results of analytical calculations. Experimental programs in place at the Savannah River Site are described that will provide information to resolve uncertainties in the data base. The results of the experiments will be incorporated into new severe accident computer codes recently developed for this reactor design. 47 refs., 4 figs.

  5. Thirty years after the Chernobyl accident: What lessons have we learnt?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beresford, N A; Fesenko, S; Konoplev, A; Skuterud, L; Smith, J T; Voigt, G

    2016-06-01

    April 2016 sees the 30(th) anniversary of the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. As a consequence of the accident populations were relocated in Belarus, Russia and Ukraine and remedial measures were put in place to reduce the entry of contaminants (primarily (134+137)Cs) into the human food chain in a number of countries throughout Europe. Remedial measures are still today in place in a number of countries, and areas of the former Soviet Union remain abandoned. The Chernobyl accident led to a large resurgence in radioecological studies both to aid remediation and to be able to make future predictions on the post-accident situation, but, also in recognition that more knowledge was required to cope with future accidents. In this paper we discuss, what in the authors' opinions, were the advances made in radioecology as a consequence of the Chernobyl accident. The areas we identified as being significantly advanced following Chernobyl were: the importance of semi-natural ecosystems in human dose formation; the characterisation and environmental behaviour of 'hot particles'; the development and application of countermeasures; the "fixation" and long term bioavailability of radiocaesium and; the effects of radiation on plants and animals. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  6. NIRS report of the criticality accident in a uranium conversion test plant in Tokai-mura

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-01-01

    This report is a detailed account of the roles that National Institute of Radiological Sciences (NIRS) played at the criticality accident in the title, which occurred at around 10:35, on Sep. 30, 1999 and resulted in death of two workers after all, and is published to discharge NIRS responsibilities in regards to the accident. The accident caused many residents concern on their health and rumors had both social and economic consequences. The report involves chapters of detailed outline of the accident; demand for acceptance of the victims and communications until the identification of the criticality'' accident; the acceptance and initial treatment; the exposure dose estimation (based on acute symptoms, on physics, on chromosomal analyses and on neutron-activated dental metals, and detailed analyses for dose distribution); decision made for therapeutic strategies; cooperation with the Network Council for Radiation Emergency and with other medical facilities; the urgent import of medicine; treatment and processes (patients, nursing system and radiation injuries); radiation protection in medical facilities; response to nearby residents of the Plant; international response; press release; Uranium Processing Plant Criticality Accident Investigation Committee and the Health Management Committee organized by the Nuclear Safety Commission; handling of information; and radiation emergency medical preparedness at the NIRS (future issues and prospect). The report is hopefully useful in preventing the occurrence of future accidents. (N.I.)

  7. Characterization of radioactive particles from the Palomares accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aragon, A. [Centro de Investigaciones Energeticas, Medioambientales y Tecnologicas, CIEMAT, Departamento de Medio Ambiente, Avenida Complutense, 22, Madrid 28040 (Spain)], E-mail: antonio.aragon@ciemat.es; Espinosa, A.; Cruz, B. de la [Centro de Investigaciones Energeticas, Medioambientales y Tecnologicas, CIEMAT, Departamento de Medio Ambiente, Avenida Complutense, 22, Madrid 28040 (Spain); Fernandez, J.A. [Empresa Nacional del Uranio Sociedad Anonima, ENUSA Industrias Avanzadas, S.A., C/Santiago Rusinol, 12, Madrid 28040 (Spain)

    2008-07-15

    As a consequence of the nuclear accident that took place in Palomares (Almeria, Spain) more than 40 years ago, actinides contamination is present in the area nowadays. Previous investigations performed with soil samples collected in different locations of Palomares indicate that the contamination in the area is highly inhomogeneous, suggesting the existence of radioactive particles, thus hindering the evaluation of the radiological situation. This work presents the methodology used for the location of the radioactive particles in the field and their isolation in the laboratory for further speciation and characterization studies. Colour pictures, electron microscopy images and EDX analyses show that most of the studied particles present a granular appearance with a variable grain size and a high fragmentation tendency, being plutonium and uranium the most abundant nuclear elements. Radiochemical determinations and activity isotopic ratios prove that the nuclear material is aged weapon grade plutonium arising from the Palomares accident.

  8. Scram discharge volume break studies accident sequence analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harrington, R.M.; Hodge, S.A.

    1982-01-01

    This paper is a summary of a report describing the predicted response of Unit 1 at the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant to a hypothetical small break loss of coolant accident (SBLOCA) outside of containment. The accident studied would be initiated by a break in the scram discharge volume (SDV) piping when it is pressurized to full reactor vessel pressure as a normal consequence of a reactor scram. If the scram could be reset, the scram outlet valves would close to isolate the SDV and the piping break from the reactor vessel. However, reset is possible only if the conditions that caused the scram have cleared; it has been assumed in this study that the scram signal remains in effect over a long period of time.

  9. Radioecological indexes of fallout measurements from the Fukushima nuclear accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manolopoulou, Metaxia; Stoulos, Stylianos; Ioannidou, Alexandra; Vagena, Eleni

    2014-05-01

    Fallout from the Fukushima nuclear accident has been monitored for about 1 month in Thessaloniki, Northern Greece. Three different radionuclides, one short-lived, one relatively long-lived and one long- lived fission product were identified in air, grass and milk samples. The 131I, 137Cs and 134Cs activity concentrations in air reached 497, 145 and 126 μBqm-3, respectively on 4 April, 2011. These radionuclides are of particular concern regarding their transfer from the environment to population through the ingestion pathways for the assessment of the Fukushima accident consequences. Radioecological indexes (eco-indexes) of fallout measurements in the air-grass-cow-milk-man pathway for 131I were determined, as they are related to radiological impact of the Fukushima derived radionuclides on the public and environment.

  10. Exploratory analysis of Spanish energetic mining accidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanmiquel, Lluís; Freijo, Modesto; Rossell, Josep M

    2012-01-01

    Using data on work accidents and annual mining statistics, the paper studies work-related accidents in the Spanish energetic mining sector in 1999-2008. The following 3 parameters are considered: age, experience and size of the mine (in number of workers) where the accident took place. The main objective of this paper is to show the relationship between different accident indicators: risk index (as an expression of the incidence), average duration index for the age and size of the mine variables (as a measure of the seriousness of an accident), and the gravity index for the various sizes of mines (which measures the seriousness of an accident, too). The conclusions of this study could be useful to develop suitable prevention policies that would contribute towards a decrease in work-related accidents in the Spanish energetic mining industry.

  11. The dominance of accidents caused by banalities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Kirsten

    . Nevertheless, the fact is that the simpler accidents normally caused by what might be regarded as banalities occur at a much higher frequencies and with many more fatalities and invalidities than any of what are usually regarded as the most dangerous kinds of accidents. In depth analysis of national statistics...... on accidents could reveal the kind of accidents we are talking about, where they happen, to whom, how, and what can be done about them. This would require a special registration system of the events leading up to the accident. The main results for the four most frequent types of accident will be described...... as an example of how much information such systems can offer in general for the work of accident prevention in more traditional and common enterprises....

  12. Analysis of Traffic Accident-Related Facial Trauma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Su Hyun; Gu, Ja Hea; Kang, Dong Hee

    2016-10-01

    The consequences of facial trauma remain of great significance both functionally and esthetically. Traffic accident-related facial trauma is a frequent and significant cause of maxillofacial injury. The purpose of this study was to determine the natural history of traffic accident-related facial injuries in 846 patients over a 10-year period at a regional emergency center. The authors report a retrospective study of 846 patients with facial trauma from traffic accidents. The medical records of these patients were reviewed and analyzed to determine clinical characteristics, treatments, and outcomes of traffic accident-related facial trauma. In total, 687 of the 846 patients (81.2%) had fractures of the face, and nasal bone fractures were the most common followed by zygomatic complex fractures, blow-out fractures, and maxilla fractures. About 51.2% patients had open wounds on the face, such as lacerations, abrasions, skin or soft tissue defects, and friction burns. Only 7.4% of patients were treated conservatively and the others underwent repair or closed and open reduction. The complication rate was 46.3%, and scars were the most common followed by nose-related complication, hypoesthesia, and eyelid deformities. In addition, 47.6% of complication patients underwent secondary operations. Almost 15% of drivers were drunk, and about 8.7% were confessed drowsy during drive. Almost 30% of pedestrians were hit when they jaywalked across the street. Epidemiological data regarding traffic accident-related facial trauma are important and useful not only for decisions about patient care and developing optimal treatment regimens but to develop new methods to prevent injuries.

  13. Safety against releases in severe accidents. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindholm, I.; Berg, Oe.; Nonboel, E. [eds.

    1997-12-01

    The work scope of the RAK-2 project has involved research on quantification of the effects of selected severe accident phenomena for Nordic nuclear power plants, development and testing of a computerised accident management support system and data collection and description of various mobile reactors and of different reactor types existing in the UK. The investigations of severe accident phenomena focused mainly on in-vessel melt progression, covering a numerical assessment of coolability of a degraded BWR core, the possibility and consequences of a BWR reactor to become critical during reflooding and the core melt behavior in the reactor vessel lower plenum. Simulant experiments were carried out to investigate lower head hole ablation induced by debris discharge. In addition to the in-vessel phenomena, a limited study on containment response to high pressure melt ejection in a BWR and a comparative study on fission product source term behaviour in a Swedish PWR were performed. An existing computerised accident management support system (CAMS) was further developed in the area of tracking and predictive simulation, signal validation, state identification and user interface. The first version of a probabilistic safety analysis module was developed and implemented in the system. CAMS was tested in practice with Barsebaeck data in a safety exercise with the Swedish nuclear authority. The descriptions of the key features of British reactor types, AGR, Magnox, FBR and PWR were published as data reports. Separate reports were issued also on accidents in nuclear ships and on description of key features of satellite reactors. The collected data were implemented in a common Nordic database. (au) 39 refs.

  14. Correlated Uncertainties in Radiation Shielding Effectiveness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werneth, Charles M.; Maung, Khin Maung; Blattnig, Steve R.; Clowdsley, Martha S.; Townsend, Lawrence W.

    2013-01-01

    The space radiation environment is composed of energetic particles which can deliver harmful doses of radiation that may lead to acute radiation sickness, cancer, and even death for insufficiently shielded crew members. Spacecraft shielding must provide structural integrity and minimize the risk associated with radiation exposure. The risk of radiation exposure induced death (REID) is a measure of the risk of dying from cancer induced by radiation exposure. Uncertainties in the risk projection model, quality factor, and spectral fluence are folded into the calculation of the REID by sampling from probability distribution functions. Consequently, determining optimal shielding materials that reduce the REID in a statistically significant manner has been found to be difficult. In this work, the difference of the REID distributions for different materials is used to study the effect of composition on shielding effectiveness. It is shown that the use of correlated uncertainties allows for the determination of statistically significant differences between materials despite the large uncertainties in the quality factor. This is in contrast to previous methods where uncertainties have been generally treated as uncorrelated. It is concluded that the use of correlated quality factor uncertainties greatly reduces the uncertainty in the assessment of shielding effectiveness for the mitigation of radiation exposure.

  15. Optimal Universal Uncertainty Relations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Tao; Xiao, Yunlong; Ma, Teng; Fei, Shao-Ming; Jing, Naihuan; Li-Jost, Xianqing; Wang, Zhi-Xi

    2016-01-01

    We study universal uncertainty relations and present a method called joint probability distribution diagram to improve the majorization bounds constructed independently in [Phys. Rev. Lett. 111, 230401 (2013)] and [J. Phys. A. 46, 272002 (2013)]. The results give rise to state independent uncertainty relations satisfied by any nonnegative Schur-concave functions. On the other hand, a remarkable recent result of entropic uncertainty relation is the direct-sum majorization relation. In this paper, we illustrate our bounds by showing how they provide a complement to that in [Phys. Rev. A. 89, 052115 (2014)]. PMID:27775010

  16. A preliminary uncertainty analysis of phenomenological inputs employed in MAAP code using the SAUNA system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, S. H.; Park, S. Y.; Kim, K. R.; Ahn, K. I. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2009-10-15

    Uncertainty analysis is an essential element of safety analysis of nuclear power plants, and especially on the increase as an essential methodology of safety assessment by computer codes. Recently, these efforts have been stepped up to apply the uncertainty methodology in severe accident analysis and PSA Level 2. From this point of view, a statistical sampling-based MAAP-specific platform for a severe accident uncertainty analysis, SAUNA, is being developed in KAERI. Its main purpose is to execute many simulations that are employed for uncertainty analysis. For its efficient implementation, the SAUNA system is composed of three related modules: Firstly, a module for preparing a statistical sampling matrix, secondly, a module for the dynamic linking between code and samples for code simulation, and thirdly, a postprocessing module for further analysis of the code simulation results. The main objective of this paper is to introduce the main functions of the SAUNA system and its example of implementation.

  17. The influence of age, seat belt, time of day, and type of vehicles on road accidents in Kerman, Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammadi, Ghorbanali

    2009-04-01

    Traffic accidents are one of the main external causes of morbidity and mortality in various parts of the world, including Kerman, a city that has experienced rapid growth in the number of cars in the last 5 years. The objective of this article was to identify the influence of age, belt use, time of day, and type of vehicle road accidents of southeastern Iran. This study used data obtained from Kerman police force reports on incidents of road traffic accidents (RTAs). We analyzed the police reports of total road accidents that occurred from 2005 to 2007. The involvement in fatal and non-fatal accidents was determined for females than among males. The analysis of the data indicated that the female drivers have a much better road safety record than male drivers, especially with regards to their involvement in severe traffic accidents. Forty-nine percent of accidents involve passenger cars, which is higher than other type of vehicles. Female drivers were found to be generally safer drivers than their male counterparts; male drivers who did not use seat belts had a higher involvement rate in road traffic accidents. Time of day analyses suggested that the problems of accidents in darkness are not a matter of visibility but a consequence of the way drivers use the roads at night. A number of recommended measures for the improvement of road safety in southeastern Iran are suggested.

  18. [Examination of Bell's palsy in consideration of the Austrian private accident insurance].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuchler, Wolfgang Willibald

    2017-08-23

    In western Europe peripheral facial palsy is the most common cranial nerve disorder. The constitutional palsy may be ideopathic or combined with other disorders, above all Lyme's disease and otogenic zoster. The traumatic palsy is nearly always combined with other severe injuries and above all caused by accidents.Constitutional palsies have a less degree of partial recovery compared to the traumatic forms. The expert has to evaluate the actual status of palsy at the time of examination and also to consider prognostic outcome. The Austrian private accident insurance covers the risk of injuries caused by an accident. Accident according to the meaning of the insurance is a term of wide comprehension including facial palsy due to tick bite. First of all accidental dysfunctions are covered by the insurance. However, the insurance also offers restricted coverage concerning aesthetic consequences as a result of dysfunction. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  19. 基于事故发展与控制的隐患分级方法%Risk Classification Method for Accident Potential Based on Development and Control Measures of Accident

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    赵东风; 申玉琪; 赵志强; 张佑明; 孟亦飞

    2012-01-01

    For the purpose of making the management of accident potential more scientific, the relationship between accident potential and accident was discussed and studied. The fundamental property of accident potential was brought forward that it can make the accident happen or develop. The mechanism whereby accident potential functions in the accident was revealed clearly, by predicting the impelling and inhibiting factors in the accident process. The accident potential was classified into two types (the first type of accident potential and the second type of accident potential) according to the different time they work. In the risk assessment, the problem of specific accident potential grading was resolved. By introducing the assessment indexes of accident potential exposure frequency, possibility of other factors, corrective actions, the initial value of the consequences of the accident, the correction factor of personnel protection, the correction factor of personnel exposure, the correction factor of emergency measures, the correction factor of property loss, an assessment index system was established. By calculating the risk of accident potential-causing accident, the real risk of accident potential was assessed.%为使隐患管理工作更加科学,对隐患与事故的关系进行研讨,提出隐患的根本属性是能够促使事故发生或发展.通过预估促使和控制(阻碍)事故发展的因素,来揭示隐患在事故过程中的作用机制.根据发生作用的时间将隐患分为第1类隐患和第2类隐患.在风险评估过程中,解决了具体隐患风险分级的问题,提出隐患暴露频率、其他条件的可能性、隐患纠正系数、事故后果初始分值、人员防护修正系数、人员暴露修正系数、应急处理与事故控制修正系数和财产损失修正系数等评价指标.通过隐患致因事故风险的计算,评估隐患的最终风险.

  20. Comprehensive analysis of atmospheric radionuclides just after the Fukushima accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsuruta, Haruo; Oura, Yasuji; Ebihara, Mitsuru; Ohara, Toshimasa; Moriguchi, Yuichi; Nakajima, Teruyuki

    2017-04-01

    Even six years passed after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FD1NPP) accident, we still have large uncertainty for atmospheric transport and deposition models, the estimate of release rate of source terms and of internal exposure from inhalation. For our better understanding and to reduce the uncertainty, we thoroughly analyzed all the published data of radionuclides such as Cs-137, I-131 and Xe-133, and of radiation dose rates at many monitoring sites in eastern Japan. We also retrieved the spatio-temporal distributions of Cs-137 just after the accident by using the unique dataset of hourly radionuclides in atmospheric aerosols collected on the used filter-tapes installed in the suspended particulate matter (SPM) monitors operated at more than 100 stations in the air pollution monitoring network of Japan. The most important findings are summarized as follows. Analyzing the hourly Cs-137 concentrations at two SPM stations located within 20 km from the FD1NPP, we revealed the complicated behavior of plumes and atmospheric radionuclides near the FD1NPP just after the accident. The transport pathways to the northwestern and northern areas from the FD1NPP are clarified especially on March 12-21, 2011. Analysis of the published data clearly shows that atmospheric ratio of I-131/Cs-137 (=R) was mainly divided into two groups, one (R≦10) is for the plumes before March 21, 2011, and the other (R>100) is after that day. These two groups are consistent in all the measured sites, whether the sites are in the Fukushima prefecture or in the Tokyo Metropolitan area. These results are expected partially to identify the source term for each plume.

  1. NASA Accident Precursor Analysis Handbook, Version 1.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groen, Frank; Everett, Chris; Hall, Anthony; Insley, Scott

    2011-01-01

    Catastrophic accidents are usually preceded by precursory events that, although observable, are not recognized as harbingers of a tragedy until after the fact. In the nuclear industry, the Three Mile Island accident was preceded by at least two events portending the potential for severe consequences from an underappreciated causal mechanism. Anomalies whose failure mechanisms were integral to the losses of Space Transportation Systems (STS) Challenger and Columbia had been occurring within the STS fleet prior to those accidents. Both the Rogers Commission Report and the Columbia Accident Investigation Board report found that processes in place at the time did not respond to the prior anomalies in a way that shed light on their true risk implications. This includes the concern that, in the words of the NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP), "no process addresses the need to update a hazard analysis when anomalies occur" At a broader level, the ASAP noted in 2007 that NASA "could better gauge the likelihood of losses by developing leading indicators, rather than continue to depend on lagging indicators". These observations suggest a need to revalidate prior assumptions and conclusions of existing safety (and reliability) analyses, as well as to consider the potential for previously unrecognized accident scenarios, when unexpected or otherwise undesired behaviors of the system are observed. This need is also discussed in NASA's system safety handbook, which advocates a view of safety assurance as driving a program to take steps that are necessary to establish and maintain a valid and credible argument for the safety of its missions. It is the premise of this handbook that making cases for safety more experience-based allows NASA to be better informed about the safety performance of its systems, and will ultimately help it to manage safety in a more effective manner. The APA process described in this handbook provides a systematic means of analyzing candidate

  2. Practical approaches in accident analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stock, M.

    An accident analysis technique based on successive application of structural response, explosion dynamics, gas cloud formation, and plant operation failure mode models is proposed. The method takes into account the nonideal explosion characteristic of a deflagration in the unconfined cloud. The resulting pressure wave differs significantly from a shock wave and the response of structures like lamp posts and walls can differ correspondingly. This gives a more realistic insight into explosion courses than a simple TNT-equivalent approach.

  3. Students’ driving behaviour as a risk factor of road accidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zografakis-Sfakianakis M

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available IntroductionRoad accidents are considered to be a public health problem since they have been massively adverse consequences in demography. Since there is a human loss, especially of young people, the problem should be investigated extensively. The driving behaviour (either alone or in combination with other factors is the most important cause of road accidents for 80-90%.Purpose Investigating students’ driving behaviour (culture of a technological educational institute and how positively or negatively they take actions, preventing themselves of accidents.Material and Method400 questionnaires were supplemented. The questionnaire was consisted of 18 closed type questions, created by the research group using bibliographical sources. The data were analyzed using the x2 test, in all cases, statistical significant was considered the two-tailed P<0,05.Results A 21,7% of students has driven the previous 7 days having consumed alcohol while 57% has been passengers. Men’s alcohol consumption has showed increased infringement (93,3% in relation to women (6,7%. (x2=53,983; p <0,001. In other crucial provisions of road traffic regulation, violation was found which exceeds 50% (speeding, wrong lane driving, etc.. The highest percentage, without a safety belt or a helmet -never or and rarely - are male drivers (x2=12,074; P=0,017.It was found that a particularly large percentage of students (61% were involved in a traffic accident. From those, who have been involved in a traffic accident, as drivers (97 students, as guilty pleaded 26,8%, while non-guilty 73,2%. Statistically males were a high majority (x2=23,425; p <0,001. The traffic accident occurred during their student years in percentage of 47,5%. 18,8% of students have been transferred to hospital as a casualty of a traffic accident. ConclusionIt is confirmed once again that the concepts of 'dangerous driving behaviour" and "young" are compatible. Male students have increased risk behaviour, mainly

  4. Uncertainty, rationality, and agency

    CERN Document Server

    Hoek, Wiebe van der

    2006-01-01

    Goes across 'classical' borderlines of disciplinesUnifies logic, game theory, and epistemics and studies them in an agent-settingCombines classical and novel approaches to uncertainty, rationality, and agency

  5. Introduction to uncertainty quantification

    CERN Document Server

    Sullivan, T J

    2015-01-01

    Uncertainty quantification is a topic of increasing practical importance at the intersection of applied mathematics, statistics, computation, and numerous application areas in science and engineering. This text provides a framework in which the main objectives of the field of uncertainty quantification are defined, and an overview of the range of mathematical methods by which they can be achieved. Complete with exercises throughout, the book will equip readers with both theoretical understanding and practical experience of the key mathematical and algorithmic tools underlying the treatment of uncertainty in modern applied mathematics. Students and readers alike are encouraged to apply the mathematical methods discussed in this book to their own favourite problems to understand their strengths and weaknesses, also making the text suitable as a self-study. This text is designed as an introduction to uncertainty quantification for senior undergraduate and graduate students with a mathematical or statistical back...

  6. Uncertainty in chemistry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menger, Fredric M

    2010-09-01

    It might come as a disappointment to some chemists, but just as there are uncertainties in physics and mathematics, there are some chemistry questions we may never know the answer to either, suggests Fredric M. Menger.

  7. [Multicenter paragliding accident study 1990].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lautenschlager, S; Karli, U; Matter, P

    1992-01-01

    During the period from 1.1.90 until 31.12.90, 86 injuries associated with paragliding were analyzed in a prospective study in 12 different Swiss hospitals with reference to causes, patterns, and frequencies. The injuries showed a mean score of over 2 and were classified as severe. Most frequent spine injuries (36%) and lesions of the lower extremity (35%) with a high risk of the ankles were diagnosed. One accident was fatal. 60% of the accidents happened during landing, 26% during launching and 14% during flight. Half of the pilots were affected during their primary training course. Most accidents were caused by inflight error of judgement--especially incorrect estimation of wind conditions--and further the choice of unfavourable landing sites. In contrast to previous injury-reports, only one equipment failure could be noted, but often the equipment was not corresponding with the experience and the weight of the pilot. To reduce the frequency of paragliding-injuries an accurate choice of equipment and an increased attention to environmental factors is mandatory. Furthermore an education-program regarding the attitude and intelligence of the pilot should be included in training courses.

  8. Incorporating real-time traffic and weather data to explore road accident likelihood and severity in urban arterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theofilatos, Athanasios

    2017-06-01

    The effective treatment of road accidents and thus the enhancement of road safety is a major concern to societies due to the losses in human lives and the economic and social costs. The investigation of road accident likelihood and severity by utilizing real-time traffic and weather data has recently received significant attention by researchers. However, collected data mainly stem from freeways and expressways. Consequently, the aim of the present paper is to add to the current knowledge by investigating accident likelihood and severity by exploiting real-time traffic and weather data collected from urban arterials in Athens, Greece. Random Forests (RF) are firstly applied for preliminary analysis purposes. More specifically, it is aimed to rank candidate variables according to their relevant importance and provide a first insight on the potential significant variables. Then, Bayesian logistic regression as well finite mixture and mixed effects logit models are applied to further explore factors associated with accident likelihood and severity respectively. Regarding accident likelihood, the Bayesian logistic regression showed that variations in traffic significantly influence accident occurrence. On the other hand, accident severity analysis revealed a generally mixed influence of traffic variations on accident severity, although international literature states that traffic variations increase severity. Lastly, weather parameters did not find to have a direct influence on accident likelihood or severity. The study added to the current knowledge by incorporating real-time traffic and weather data from urban arterials to investigate accident occurrence and accident severity mechanisms. The identification of risk factors can lead to the development of effective traffic management strategies to reduce accident occurrence and severity of injuries in urban arterials. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

  9. Mechanics and uncertainty

    CERN Document Server

    Lemaire, Maurice

    2014-01-01

    Science is a quest for certainty, but lack of certainty is the driving force behind all of its endeavors. This book, specifically, examines the uncertainty of technological and industrial science. Uncertainty and Mechanics studies the concepts of mechanical design in an uncertain setting and explains engineering techniques for inventing cost-effective products. Though it references practical applications, this is a book about ideas and potential advances in mechanical science.

  10. Fietsongevallen bij kinderen in Nederland in 1990/1991: tijd voor fietshelmen [Bicycle accidents of children in the Netherlands in 1990/1991; time for cycle helmets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hirasing, R.A.; Verloove-Vanhorick, S.P.; Kampen, L.T.B. van

    1994-01-01

    Objective. To assess the possibility of preventing consequences of bicycle accidents. Design. Retrospective study. Setting. The Netherlands. Material and method. The data on mortality and hospital admissions of children aged 0-14 years were analysed. The data on traffic accident fatalities were

  11. Generalized uncertainty principles

    CERN Document Server

    Machluf, Ronny

    2008-01-01

    The phenomenon in the essence of classical uncertainty principles is well known since the thirties of the last century. We introduce a new phenomenon which is in the essence of a new notion that we introduce: "Generalized Uncertainty Principles". We show the relation between classical uncertainty principles and generalized uncertainty principles. We generalized "Landau-Pollak-Slepian" uncertainty principle. Our generalization relates the following two quantities and two scaling parameters: 1) The weighted time spreading $\\int_{-\\infty}^\\infty |f(x)|^2w_1(x)dx$, ($w_1(x)$ is a non-negative function). 2) The weighted frequency spreading $\\int_{-\\infty}^\\infty |\\hat{f}(\\omega)|^2w_2(\\omega)d\\omega$. 3) The time weight scale $a$, ${w_1}_a(x)=w_1(xa^{-1})$ and 4) The frequency weight scale $b$, ${w_2}_b(\\omega)=w_2(\\omega b^{-1})$. "Generalized Uncertainty Principle" is an inequality that summarizes the constraints on the relations between the two spreading quantities and two scaling parameters. For any two reason...

  12. Uncertainty, incompleteness, chance, and design

    CERN Document Server

    Sols, Fernando

    2013-01-01

    The 20th century has revealed two important limitations of scientific knowledge. On the one hand, the combination of Poincar\\'e's nonlinear dynamics and Heisenberg's uncertainty principle leads to a world picture where physical reality is, in many respects, intrinsically undetermined. On the other hand, G\\"odel's incompleteness theorems reveal us the existence of mathematical truths that cannot be demonstrated. More recently, Chaitin has proved that, from the incompleteness theorems, it follows that the random character of a given mathematical sequence cannot be proved in general (it is 'undecidable'). I reflect here on the consequences derived from the indeterminacy of the future and the undecidability of randomness, concluding that the question of the presence or absence of finality in nature is fundamentally outside the scope of the scientific method.

  13. Temporal Statistic of Traffic Accidents in Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erdogan, S.; Yalcin, M.; Yilmaz, M.; Korkmaz Takim, A.

    2015-10-01

    Traffic accidents form clusters in terms of geographic space and over time which themselves exhibit distinct spatial and temporal patterns. There is an imperative need to understand how, where and when traffic accidents occur in order to develop appropriate accident reduction strategies. An improved understanding of the location, time and reasons for traffic accidents makes a significant contribution to preventing them. Traffic accident occurrences have been extensively studied from different spatial and temporal points of view using a variety of methodological approaches. In literature, less research has been dedicated to the temporal patterns of traffic accidents. In this paper, the numbers of traffic accidents are normalized according to the traffic volume and the distribution and fluctuation of these accidents is examined in terms of Islamic time intervals. The daily activities and worship of Muslims are arranged according to these time intervals that are spaced fairly throughout the day according to the position of the sun. The Islamic time intervals are never been used before to identify the critical hour for traffic accidents in the world. The results show that the sunrise is the critical time that acts as a threshold in the rate of traffic accidents throughout Turkey in Islamic time intervals.

  14. [Accidents in travellers - the hidden epidemic].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walz, Alexander; Hatz, Christoph

    2013-06-01

    The risk of malaria and other communicable diseases is well addressed in pre-travel advice. Accidents are usually less discussed. Thus, we aimed at assessing accident figures for the Swiss population, based on data of the register from 2004 to 2008 of the largest Swiss accident insurance organization (SUVA). More than 139'000 accidents over 5 years showed that 65 % of the accidents overseas are injuries, and 24 % are caused by poisoning or harm by cold, heat or air pressure. Most accidents happened during leisure activities or sports. More than one third of the non-lethal and more than 50 % of the fatal accidents happened in Asia. More than three-quarters of non-lethal accidents take place in people between 25 and 54 years. One out of 74 insured persons has an accident abroad per year. Despite of many analysis short-comings of the data set with regard to overseas travel, the figures document the underestimated burden of disease caused by accidents abroad and should affect the given pre-health advice.

  15. TEMPORAL STATISTIC OF TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS IN TURKEY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Erdogan

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Traffic accidents form clusters in terms of geographic space and over time which themselves exhibit distinct spatial and temporal patterns. There is an imperative need to understand how, where and when traffic accidents occur in order to develop appropriate accident reduction strategies. An improved understanding of the location, time and reasons for traffic accidents makes a significant contribution to preventing them. Traffic accident occurrences have been extensively studied from different spatial and temporal points of view using a variety of methodological approaches. In literature, less research has been dedicated to the temporal patterns of traffic accidents. In this paper, the numbers of traffic accidents are normalized according to the traffic volume and the distribution and fluctuation of these accidents is examined in terms of Islamic time intervals. The daily activities and worship of Muslims are arranged according to these time intervals that are spaced fairly throughout the day according to the position of the sun. The Islamic time intervals are never been used before to identify the critical hour for traffic accidents in the world. The results show that the sunrise is the critical time that acts as a threshold in the rate of traffic accidents throughout Turkey in Islamic time intervals.

  16. Severe Accident Recriticality Analyses (SARA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frid, W. [Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, Stockholm (Sweden); Hoejerup, F. [Risoe National Lab. (Denmark); Lindholm, I.; Miettinen, J.; Puska, E.K. [VTT Energy, Helsinki (Finland); Nilsson, Lars [Studsvik Eco and Safety AB, Nykoeping (Sweden); Sjoevall, H. [Teoliisuuden Voima Oy (Finland)

    1999-11-01

    Recriticality in a BWR has been studied for a total loss of electric power accident scenario. In a BWR, the B{sub 4}C control rods would melt and relocate from the core before the fuel during core uncovery and heat-up. If electric power returns during this time-window unborated water from ECCS systems will start to reflood the partly control rod free core. Recriticality might take place for which the only mitigating mechanisms are the Doppler effect and void formation. In order to assess the impact of recriticality on reactor safety, including accident management measures, the following issues have been investigated in the SARA project: 1. the energy deposition in the fuel during super-prompt power burst, 2. the quasi steady-state reactor power following the initial power burst and 3. containment response to elevated quasi steady-state reactor power. The approach was to use three computer codes and to further develop and adapt them for the task. The codes were SIMULATE-3K, APROS and RECRIT. Recriticality analyses were carried out for a number of selected reflooding transients for the Oskarshamn 3 plant in Sweden with SIMULATE-3K and for the Olkiluoto 1 plant in Finland with all three codes. The core state initial and boundary conditions prior to recriticality have been studied with the severe accident codes SCDAP/RELAP5, MELCOR and MAAP4. The results of the analyses show that all three codes predict recriticality - both superprompt power bursts and quasi steady-state power generation - for the studied range of parameters, i. e. with core uncovery and heat-up to maximum core temperatures around 1800 K and water flow rates of 45 kg/s to 2000 kg/s injected into the downcomer. Since the recriticality takes place in a small fraction of the core the power densities are high which results in large energy deposition in the fuel during power burst in some accident scenarios. The highest value, 418 cal/g, was obtained with SIMULATE-3K for an Oskarshamn 3 case with reflooding

  17. Uncertainty quantification for environmental models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Mary C.; Lu, Dan; Kavetski, Dmitri; Clark, Martyn P.; Ye, Ming

    2012-01-01

    Environmental models are used to evaluate the fate of fertilizers in agricultural settings (including soil denitrification), the degradation of hydrocarbons at spill sites, and water supply for people and ecosystems in small to large basins and cities—to mention but a few applications of these models. They also play a role in understanding and diagnosing potential environmental impacts of global climate change. The models are typically mildly to extremely nonlinear. The persistent demand for enhanced dynamics and resolution to improve model realism [17] means that lengthy individual model execution times will remain common, notwithstanding continued enhancements in computer power. In addition, high-dimensional parameter spaces are often defined, which increases the number of model runs required to quantify uncertainty [2]. Some environmental modeling projects have access to extensive funding and computational resources; many do not. The many recent studies of uncertainty quantification in environmental model predictions have focused on uncertainties related to data error and sparsity of data, expert judgment expressed mathematically through prior information, poorly known parameter values, and model structure (see, for example, [1,7,9,10,13,18]). Approaches for quantifying uncertainty include frequentist (potentially with prior information [7,9]), Bayesian [13,18,19], and likelihood-based. A few of the numerous methods, including some sensitivity and inverse methods with consequences for understanding and quantifying uncertainty, are as follows: Bayesian hierarchical modeling and Bayesian model averaging; single-objective optimization with error-based weighting [7] and multi-objective optimization [3]; methods based on local derivatives [2,7,10]; screening methods like OAT (one at a time) and the method of Morris [14]; FAST (Fourier amplitude sensitivity testing) [14]; the Sobol' method [14]; randomized maximum likelihood [10]; Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) [10

  18. Development of Methodology for Spent Fuel Pool Severe Accident Analysis Using MELCOR Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Won-Tae; Shin, Jae-Uk [RETech. Co. LTD., Yongin (Korea, Republic of); Ahn, Kwang-Il [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    The general reason why SFP severe accident analysis has to be considered is that there is a potential great risk due to the huge number of fuel assemblies and no containment in a SFP building. In most cases, the SFP building is vulnerable to external damage or attack. In contrary, low decay heat of fuel assemblies may make the accident processes slow compared to the accident in reactor core because of a great deal of water. In short, its severity of consequence cannot exclude the consideration of SFP risk management. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has performed the consequence studies of postulated spent fuel pool accident. The Fukushima-Daiichi accident has accelerated the needs for the consequence studies of postulated spent fuel pool accidents, causing the nuclear industry and regulatory bodies to reexamine several assumptions concerning beyond-design basis events such as a station blackout. The tsunami brought about the loss of coolant accident, leading to the explosion of hydrogen in the SFP building. Analyses of SFP accident processes in the case of a loss of coolant with no heat removal have studied. Few studies however have focused on a long term process of SFP severe accident under no mitigation action such as a water makeup to SFP. USNRC and OECD have co-worked to examine the behavior of PWR fuel assemblies under severe accident conditions in a spent fuel rack. In support of the investigation, several new features of MELCOR model have been added to simulate both BWR fuel assembly and PWR 17 x 17 assembly in a spent fuel pool rack undergoing severe accident conditions. The purpose of the study in this paper is to develop a methodology of the long-term analysis for the plant level SFP severe accident by using the new-featured MELCOR program in the OPR-1000 Nuclear Power Plant. The study is to investigate the ability of MELCOR in predicting an entire process of SFP severe accident phenomena including the molten corium and concrete reaction. The

  19. Improving the uncertainty of photomask linewidth measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedulla, J. M.; Potzick, James; Silver, Richard M.

    2004-05-01

    The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is currently developing a photomask linewidth standard (SRM 2059) with a lower expected uncertainty of calibration than the previous NIST standards (SRMs 473, 475, 476). In calibrating these standards, optical simulation modeling has been used to predict the microscope image intensity profiles, which are then compared to the experimental profiles to determine the certified linewidths. Consequently, the total uncertainty in the linewidth calibration is a result of uncertainty components from the optical simulation modeling and uncertainty due to experimental errors or approximations (e.g., tool imaging errors and material characterization errors). Errors of approximation in the simulation model and uncertainty in the parameters used in the model can contribute a large component to the total linewidth uncertainty. We have studied the effects of model parameter variation on measurement uncertainty using several different optical simulation programs that utilize different mathematical techniques. We have also evaluated the effects of chrome edge runout and varying indices of refraction on the linewidth images. There are several experimental parameters that are not ordinarily included in the modeling simulation. For example, the modeling programs assume a uniform illuminating field (e.g., Koehler illumination), ideal optics and perfect optical alignment. In practice, determining whether Koehler illumination has been achieved is difficult, and the optical components and their alignments are never ideal. We will present some techniques for evaluating Koehler illumination and methods to compensate for scattered (flare) light. Any such experimental elements, that are assumed accurate in the modeling, may actually present significant components to the uncertainty and need to be quantitatively estimated. The present state of metrology does not permit the absolute calibration of linewidth standards to the level of

  20. Evaluation of severe accident risks, Peach Bottom, Unit 2: Main report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Payne, A.C.; Breeding, R.J.; Jow, H.N.; Shiver, A.W. (Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (USA)); Helton, J.C. (Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (USA)); Smith, L.N. (Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (USA))

    1990-12-01

    In support of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) assessment of the risk from severe accidents at commercial nuclear power plants in the US reported NUREG-1150, the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a revised calculation of the risk to the general public from severe accidents at the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station, Unit 2. This power plant, located in southeastern Pennsylvania, is operated by the Philadelphia Electric Company. The emphasis in this risk analysis was not on determining a so-called'' point estimate of risk. Rather, it was to determine the distribution of risk, and to discover the uncertainties that account for the breadth of this distribution. Off-site risk initiated by events both internal and external to the power station were assessed. 39 refs., 174 figs., 133 tabs.

  1. Consequences of severe radioactive releases to Nordic Marine environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iosjpe, M. [Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority (NRPA) (Norway); Isaksson, M. [Univ. of Gothenburg (Sweden); Joensen, H.P. [Froskaparsetur Foeroya. Faroe Islands, Torshavn (Denmark); Lahtinen, J. [Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority (Finland); Logemann, K. [Univ. of Iceland (Iceland); Palsson, S.E. [Geislavarnir Rikisins (Iceland); Roos, P. [Technical Univ. of Denmark. Risoe DTU, Roskilde (Denmark); Suolanen, V. [Technical Research Centre of Finland (Finland)

    2013-02-15

    In the report, consequences of hypothetical severe nuclear accidents releases to Nordic marine environment are preliminary considered. The considered marine area comprises the Baltic Sea (Sweden, Denmark, Finland) and the North Atlantic (Iceland, Faroes, Norway) areas. The hypothetical severe nuclear accidents can be related to nuclear power plants, nuclear powered submarines or ice-breakers. Quite comprehensive survey on radioactive source terms of extremely severe nuclear power and submarine accidents has been done. This enables to estimate more realistically possible radioactive releases of various elements and nuclides to marine environment. One recent reference is of course the Fukushima accident and estimated releases there. The marine flows and dilution circumstances around the Nordic nuclear power plants and in the Baltic Sea area in general, has been studied. Respectively marine flows related to Iceland and Faroes coasts are considered with measured data and with preliminary 3D-model simulations. The substantial depth of sea water in the North Atlantic affect vertical concentration profiles to some extent. At Icelandic or Faroese waters, a potential submarine accident would likely occur in a well defined water mass, and radioactivity from the accident would be detected and spread with the flow regime of the water mass in the world ocean. Based on hypothetical severe accidents scenarios, preliminary consequence calculations has been done. It should be emphasised that the considered severe accident cases, considered in this study, do not directly attach any specific Nordic nuclear power plant or any specific submarine type. The considered radioactive releases will, however, provide specified references for more extensive consideration of environmental consequences of severe - or minor - radioactive releases to Nordic marine environment. As a reference, the release amounts from a 3000 MW{sub th} reactor size were used. Based on source term analyses, the

  2. Network planning under uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Kwok Shing; Cheung, Kwok Wai

    2008-11-01

    One of the main focuses for network planning is on the optimization of network resources required to build a network under certain traffic demand projection. Traditionally, the inputs to this type of network planning problems are treated as deterministic. In reality, the varying traffic requirements and fluctuations in network resources can cause uncertainties in the decision models. The failure to include the uncertainties in the network design process can severely affect the feasibility and economics of the network. Therefore, it is essential to find a solution that can be insensitive to the uncertain conditions during the network planning process. As early as in the 1960's, a network planning problem with varying traffic requirements over time had been studied. Up to now, this kind of network planning problems is still being active researched, especially for the VPN network design. Another kind of network planning problems under uncertainties that has been studied actively in the past decade addresses the fluctuations in network resources. One such hotly pursued research topic is survivable network planning. It considers the design of a network under uncertainties brought by the fluctuations in topology to meet the requirement that the network remains intact up to a certain number of faults occurring anywhere in the network. Recently, the authors proposed a new planning methodology called Generalized Survivable Network that tackles the network design problem under both varying traffic requirements and fluctuations of topology. Although all the above network planning problems handle various kinds of uncertainties, it is hard to find a generic framework under more general uncertainty conditions that allows a more systematic way to solve the problems. With a unified framework, the seemingly diverse models and algorithms can be intimately related and possibly more insights and improvements can be brought out for solving the problem. This motivates us to seek a

  3. Market uncertainty; Markedsusikkerhet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doorman, Gerard; Holtan, Jon Anders; Mo, Birger; Groenli, Helle; Haaland, Magnar; Grinden, Bjoern

    1997-04-10

    In Norway, the project ``Market uncertainty`` has been in progress for over two years and resulted in increased skill in the use of the Grid System Operation Model. This report classifies some of the factors which lead to uncertainties in the electric power market. It has been examined whether these factors should be, or can be, modelled in the available simulation models. Some of the factors have been further considered and methods of modelling the associated uncertainties have been examined. It is concluded that (1) There is a need for automatic simulation of several scenarios in the model, and these scenarios should incorporate probability parameters, (2) At first it is most important that one can handle uncertainties in fuel prices and demand, (3) Market uncertainty which is due to irrational behaviour should be dealt with in a separate model. The difference between real and simulated prices should be analysed and modelled with a time series model, (4) Risk should be included in the Vansimtap model by way of feedback from simulations, (5) The marginal values of stored water as calculated by means of the various methods in use should be compared systematically. 9 refs., 16 figs., 5 tabs.

  4. Interpreting uncertainty terms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holtgraves, Thomas

    2014-08-01

    Uncertainty terms (e.g., some, possible, good, etc.) are words that do not have a fixed referent and hence are relatively ambiguous. A model is proposed that specifies how, from the hearer's perspective, recognition of facework as a potential motive for the use of an uncertainty term results in a calibration of the intended meaning of that term. Four experiments are reported that examine the impact of face threat, and the variables that affect it (e.g., power), on the manner in which a variety of uncertainty terms (probability terms, quantifiers, frequency terms, etc.) are interpreted. Overall, the results demonstrate that increased face threat in a situation will result in a more negative interpretation of an utterance containing an uncertainty term. That the interpretation of so many different types of uncertainty terms is affected in the same way suggests the operation of a fundamental principle of language use, one with important implications for the communication of risk, subjective experience, and so on.

  5. Using MFM methodology to generate and define major accident scenarios for quantitative risk assessment studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hua, Xinsheng; Wu, Zongzhi; Lind, Morten

    2017-01-01

    to calculate likelihood of each MAS. Combining the likelihood of each scenario with a qualitative risk matrix, each major accident scenario is thereby ranked for consideration for detailed consequence analysis. The methodology is successfully highlighted using part of BMA-process for production of hydrogen...

  6. The system of emergency cards for primary actions in accident at radioactive material transport in Russia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ananiev, V.V. [Div. of the Decommission of Nuclear and Radiation-Hazardous Object of the Federal Agency for Atomic Energy, Moscow (Russian Federation); Ermakov, S.V.; Ershov, V.N.; Stovbur, V.I. [FGUP ' ' Emergency Response Centre of Minatom of Russia' ' , St-Petersburg (Russian Federation); Shvedov, M.O. [Div. of Nuclear and Radiation Safety of the Federal Agency for Atomic Energy, Moscow (Russian Federation)

    2004-07-01

    In the paper are reviewed the current and new designed system of the emergency cards for consignments of radioactive materials in Russian Federation, within the framework of a uniform state system of warning and liquidation of consequences of extraordinary situations and functional subsystem of warning and liquidation of accident situations of Federal Agency for Atomic Energy.

  7. Injuries to pedestrians in road traffic accidents.

    OpenAIRE

    Atkins, R. M.; Turner, W H; Duthie, R. B.; Wilde, B. R.

    1988-01-01

    Although there have been many reports on injuries to occupants of cars in road traffic accidents, there have been few prospective studies of injuries to pedestrians in such accidents. For this reason a two year prospective study of pedestrians in road traffic accidents in the Oxford region was carried out. The incidence of death in pedestrians was significantly higher than in car occupants or motorcyclists. The principal determinant of death was the weight of the vehicle concerned. The most c...

  8. Why Airplanes Crash: Causes of Accidents Worldwide

    OpenAIRE

    Oster, Clinton V.; John S. Strong; Zorn, Kurt

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we report the results of a detailed examination of the causes of 700 fatal aviation accidents that occurred worldwide between 1990 and 2006 in commercial passenger service. We look at both scheduled and nonscheduled and both domestic and international service. We also categorize the accident aircraft as large jets, regional and medium jets, small jets, turboprops, and piston powered aircraft. We find that the mix of causes of those accidents vary substantially across regions of...

  9. THE CHERNOBYL ACCIDENT AND HEALTH (TWO POINTS OF VIEW

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. M. Shubik

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The article presents two alternative points of view on the relationship of health malfunctions after the Chernobyl accident with radiation effect or with the factors of non-radiation nature (social, stress, nutrition peculiarities, etc.. An analysis of literature data and results of author’s own research of radiosensitive indicators of immunity condition, having essential value for the immediate and long term consequences of radiation effect was done. Possible correlation between health malfunctions of the population living in the regions, contaminated by the radionuclides, and combined effect of radiation and factors of non-radiation nature is shown.

  10. A Preliminary PIRT Development Related to SWR Accidents from an SG Tube Failure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    So, Dongsup; Jeong, Ji Young; Lee, Yong Bum [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    The results of the PIRT, the uncertainties of the phenomena ranked as high priority can be reduced by an investigation or/and theoretical evaluation. The PIRT for IHTS due to SG tube rupture of Prototype GEN-IV Sodium cooled Fast Reactor (PGSFR) is on developing stage by the KAERI-ANL experts. These plausible phenomena can be applicable to the PIRT development of PGSFR having the similar concept of KALIMER-600. The Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) process was created as a systematic and documented means of completing a U. S. NRC's Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty exercise with a limited amount of resources. This paper describes a preliminary PIRT development for a Sodium-Water Reaction (SWR) accident with regard to a Steam Generator (SG) tube failure of the KALIMER-600 (Korea Advanced Liquid Metal Reactor). The plausible phenomena related to SWR accidents were developed.

  11. COMMERCIAL SNF ACCIDENT RELEASE FRACTIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    S.O. Bader

    1999-10-18

    The purpose of this design analysis is to specify and document the total and respirable fractions for radioactive materials that are released from an accident event at the Monitored Geologic Repository (MGR) involving commercial spent nuclear fuel (CSNF) in a dry environment. The total and respirable release fractions will be used to support the preclosure licensing basis for the MGR. The total release fraction is defined as the fraction of total CSNF assembly inventory, typically expressed as an activity inventory (e.g., curies), of a given radionuclide that is released to the environment from a waste form. The radionuclides are released from the inside of breached fuel rods (or pins) and from the detachment of radioactive material (crud) from the outside surfaces of fuel rods and other components of fuel assemblies. The total release fraction accounts for several mechanisms that tend to retain, retard, or diminish the amount of radionuclides that are available for transport to dose receptors or otherwise can be shown to reduce exposure of receptors to radiological releases. The total release fraction includes a fraction of airborne material that is respirable and could result in inhalation doses. This subset of the total release fraction is referred to as the respirable release fraction. Potential accidents may involve waste forms that are characterized as either bare (unconfined) fuel assemblies or confined fuel assemblies. The confined CSNF assemblies at the MGR are contained in shipping casks, canisters, or disposal containers (waste packages). In contrast to the bare fuel assemblies, the container that confines the fuel assemblies has the potential of providing an additional barrier for diminishing the total release fraction should the fuel rod cladding breach during an accident. However, this analysis will not take credit for this additional bamer and will establish only the total release fractions for bare unconfined CSNF assemblies, which may however be

  12. Relationship between childhood hyperactivity and accident proneness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gayton, W F; Bailey, C; Wagner, A; Hardesty, V A

    1986-10-01

    Previous research suggested that hyperactive children are especially susceptible to accidents. Two questions remain: is the relationship peculiar to hyperactivity in childhood or for behaviorally disturbed children in general and does the relationship hold for females as well as for males? To answer these questions 189 patients at a child psychiatric clinic were rated on a scale which included measures of hyperactivity and accident proneness. The hyperactive patients were more likely to be described as accident prone than nonhyperactive patients. The relationship between childhood hyperactivity and accident proneness is confirmed and is specific. The relationship holds for both boys and girls.

  13. Systematics of Reconstructed Process Facility Criticality Accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pruvost, N.L.; McLaughlin, T.P.; Monahan, S.P.

    1999-09-19

    The systematics of the characteristics of twenty-one criticality accidents occurring in nuclear processing facilities of the Russian Federation, the United States, and the United Kingdom are examined. By systematics the authors mean the degree of consistency or agreement between the factual parameters reported for the accidents and the experimentally known conditions for criticality. The twenty-one reported process criticality accidents are not sufficiently well described to justify attempting detailed neutronic modeling. However, results of classic hand calculations confirm the credibility of the reported accident conditions.

  14. Methodological guidelines for developing accident modification functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elvik, Rune

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes methodological guidelines for developing accident modification functions. An accident modification function is a mathematical function describing systematic variation in the effects of road safety measures. The paper describes ten guidelines. An example is given of how to use...... limitations in developing accident modification functions are the small number of good evaluation studies and the often huge variation in estimates of effect. It is therefore still not possible to develop accident modification functions for very many road safety measures. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights...

  15. Occupational Accidents with Agricultural Machinery in Austria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kogler, Robert; Quendler, Elisabeth; Boxberger, Josef

    2016-01-01

    The number of recognized accidents with fatalities during agricultural and forestry work, despite better technology and coordinated prevention and trainings, is still very high in Austria. The accident scenarios in which people are injured are very different on farms. The common causes of accidents in agriculture and forestry are the loss of control of machine, means of transport or handling equipment, hand-held tool, and object or animal, followed by slipping, stumbling and falling, breakage, bursting, splitting, slipping, fall, and collapse of material agent. In the literature, a number of studies of general (machine- and animal-related accidents) and specific (machine-related accidents) agricultural and forestry accident situations can be found that refer to different databases. From the database Data of the Austrian Workers Compensation Board (AUVA) about occupational accidents with different agricultural machinery over the period 2008-2010 in Austria, main characteristics of the accident, the victim, and the employer as well as variables on causes and circumstances by frequency and contexts of parameters were statistically analyzed by employing the chi-square test and odds ratio. The aim of the study was to determine the information content and quality of the European Statistics on Accidents at Work (ESAW) variables to evaluate safety gaps and risks as well as the accidental man-machine interaction.

  16. Aerospace Accident - Injury Autopsy Data System -

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Transportation — The Aerospace Accident Injury Autopsy Database System will provide the Civil Aerospace Medical Institute (CAMI) Aerospace Medical Research Team (AMRT) the ability to...

  17. Measurement uncertainty relations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Busch, Paul, E-mail: paul.busch@york.ac.uk [Department of Mathematics, University of York, York (United Kingdom); Lahti, Pekka, E-mail: pekka.lahti@utu.fi [Turku Centre for Quantum Physics, Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Turku, FI-20014 Turku (Finland); Werner, Reinhard F., E-mail: reinhard.werner@itp.uni-hannover.de [Institut für Theoretische Physik, Leibniz Universität, Hannover (Germany)

    2014-04-15

    Measurement uncertainty relations are quantitative bounds on the errors in an approximate joint measurement of two observables. They can be seen as a generalization of the error/disturbance tradeoff first discussed heuristically by Heisenberg. Here we prove such relations for the case of two canonically conjugate observables like position and momentum, and establish a close connection with the more familiar preparation uncertainty relations constraining the sharpness of the distributions of the two observables in the same state. Both sets of relations are generalized to means of order α rather than the usual quadratic means, and we show that the optimal constants are the same for preparation and for measurement uncertainty. The constants are determined numerically and compared with some bounds in the literature. In both cases, the near-saturation of the inequalities entails that the state (resp. observable) is uniformly close to a minimizing one.

  18. SAGD optimization under uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gossuin, J.; Naccache, P. [Schlumberger SIS, Abingdon (United Kingdom); Bailley, W.; Couet, B. [Schlumberger-Doll Research, Cambridge, MA, (United States)

    2011-07-01

    In the heavy oil industry, the steam assisted gravity drainage process is often used to enhance oil recovery but this is a costly method and ways to make it more efficient are needed. Multiple methods have been developed to optimize the SAGD process but none of them explicitly considered uncertainty. This paper presents an optimization method in the presence of reservoir uncertainty. This process was tested on an SAGD model where three equi-probable geological models are possible. Preparatory steps were first performed to identify key variables and the optimization model was then proposed. The method was shown to be successful in handling a significant number of uncertainties, optimizing the SAGD process and preventing premature steam channels that can choke production. The optimization method presented herein was successfully applied to an SAGD process and was shown to provide better strategies than sensitivity analysis while handling more complex problems.

  19. Accident Management in VVER-1000

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. D'Auria

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The present paper deals with the investigation study on accident management in VVER-1000 reactor type conducted in the framework of a European Commission funded project. The mentioned study involved both experimental and computational fields. The purpose of this paper is to summarize the main findings from the execution of a wide-range analysis focused on AM in VVER-1000 with main regard to the qualification of computational tools and the proposal for an optimal AM strategy for this kind of NPP.

  20. HTGR severe accident sequence analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harrington, R.M.; Ball, S.J.; Kornegay, F.C.

    1982-01-01

    Thermal-hydraulic, fission product transport, and atmospheric dispersion calculations are presented for hypothetical severe accident release paths at the Fort St. Vrain (FSV) high temperature gas cooled reactor (HTGR). Off-site radiation exposures are calculated for assumed release of 100% of the 24 hour post-shutdown core xenon and krypton inventory and 5.5% of the iodine inventory. The results show conditions under which dose avoidance measures would be desirable and demonstrate the importance of specific release characteristics such as effective release height. 7 tables.