WorldWideScience

Sample records for abstract global flood

  1. The Global Flood Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, P.; Huddelston, M.; Michel, G.; Thompson, S.; Heynert, K.; Pickering, C.; Abbott Donnelly, I.; Fewtrell, T.; Galy, H.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.; Weerts, A.; Nixon, S.; Davies, P.; Schiferli, D.

    2012-04-01

    Recently, a Global Flood Model (GFM) initiative has been proposed by Willis, UK Met Office, Esri, Deltares and IBM. The idea is to create a global community platform that enables better understanding of the complexities of flood risk assessment to better support the decisions, education and communication needed to mitigate flood risk. The GFM will provide tools for assessing the risk of floods, for devising mitigation strategies such as land-use changes and infrastructure improvements, and for enabling effective pre- and post-flood event response. The GFM combines humanitarian and commercial motives. It will benefit: - The public, seeking to preserve personal safety and property; - State and local governments, seeking to safeguard economic activity, and improve resilience; - NGOs, similarly seeking to respond proactively to flood events; - The insurance sector, seeking to understand and price flood risk; - Large corporations, seeking to protect global operations and supply chains. The GFM is an integrated and transparent set of modules, each composed of models and data. For each module, there are two core elements: a live "reference version" (a worked example) and a framework of specifications, which will allow development of alternative versions. In the future, users will be able to work with the reference version or substitute their own models and data. If these meet the specification for the relevant module, they will interoperate with the rest of the GFM. Some "crowd-sourced" modules could even be accredited and published to the wider GFM community. Our intent is to build on existing public, private and academic work, improve local adoption, and stimulate the development of multiple - but compatible - alternatives, so strengthening mankind's ability to manage flood impacts. The GFM is being developed and managed by a non-profit organization created for the purpose. The business model will be inspired from open source software (eg Linux): - for non-profit usage

  2. Global Flood Hazard Frequency and Distribution

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Flood Hazard Frequency and Distribution is a 2.5 minute grid derived from a global listing of extreme flood events between 1985 and 2003 (poor or missing data...

  3. Global Flood Mortality Risks and Distribution

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Flood Mortality Risks and Distribution is a 2.5 minute grid of global flood mortality risks. Gridded Population of the World, Version 3 (GPWv3) data provided...

  4. Global Flood Total Economic Loss Risk Deciles

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Flood Total Economic Loss Risk Deciles is a 2.5 minute grid of global flood total economic loss risks. A process of spatially allocating Gross Domestic...

  5. Global Flood Proportional Economic Loss Risk Deciles

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Flood Proportional Economic Loss Risk Deciles is a 2.5 minute grid of flood hazard economic loss as proportions of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per analytical...

  6. Swiss Re Global Flood Hazard Zones: Know your flood risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinukollu, R. K.; Castaldi, A.; Mehlhorn, J.

    2012-12-01

    Floods, among all natural disasters, have a great damage potential. On a global basis, there is strong evidence of increase in the number of people affected and economic losses due to floods. For example, global insured flood losses have increased by 12% every year since 1970 and this is expected to further increase with growing exposure in the high risk areas close to rivers and coastlines. Recently, the insurance industry has been surprised by the large extent of losses, because most countries lack reliable hazard information. One example has been the 2011 Thailand floods where millions of people were affected and the total economic losses were 30 billion USD. In order to assess the flood risk across different regions and countries, the flood team at Swiss Re based on a Geomorphologic Regression approach, developed in house and patented, produced global maps of flood zones. Input data for the study was obtained from NASA's Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) elevation data, Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) and HydroSHEDS. The underlying assumptions of the approach are that naturally flowing rivers shape their channel and flood plain according to basin inherent forces and characteristics and that the flood water extent strongly depends on the shape of the flood plain. On the basis of the catchment characteristics, the model finally calculates the probability of a location to be flooded or not for a defined return period, which in the current study was set to 100 years. The data is produced at a 90-m resolution for latitudes 60S to 60N. This global product is now used in the insurance industry to inspect, inform and/or insure the flood risk across the world.

  7. Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Emerton, Rebecca E.; Stephens, Elisabeth M.; Pappenberger, Florian; Pagano, Thomas P.; Weerts, A.H.; Wood, A.; Salamon, Peter; Brown, James D.; Hjerdt, Niclas; Donnelly, Chantal; Baugh, Calum A.; Cloke, Hannah L.

    2016-01-01

    Floods are the most frequent of natural disasters, affecting millions of people across the globe every year. The anticipation and forecasting of floods at the global scale is crucial to preparing for severe events and providing early awareness where local flood models and warning services may not

  8. Global drivers of future river flood risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Winsemius, H.C.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Van Beek, L.P.H.; Bierkens, M.F.P.; Bouwman, A.; Jongman, B.; Kwadijk, J.; Ligtvoet, W.; Lucas, P.L.; Van Vuuren, D.P.; Ward, P.J.

    2016-01-01

    Understanding global future river flood risk is a prerequisite for the quantification of climate change impacts and planning effective adaptation strategies. Existing global flood risk projections fail to integrate the combined dynamics of expected socio-economic development and climate change. We

  9. Global drivers of future river flood risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Winsemius, Hessel C.; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/14749799X; Bierkens, Marc F. P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/125022794; Bouwman, Arno; Jongman, Brenden; Kwadijk, Jaap C. J.; Ligtvoet, Willem; Lucas, Paul L.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/272607444; van Vuuren, Detlef P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Ward, Philip J.

    Understanding global future river flood risk is a prerequisite for the quantification of climate change impacts and planning effective adaptation strategies1. Existing global flood risk projections fail to integrate the combined dynamics of expected socio-economic development and climate change. We

  10. Global drivers of future river flood risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winsemius, Hessel C.; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.; Bouwman, Arno; Jongman, Brenden; Kwadijk, Jaap C. J.; Ligtvoet, Willem; Lucas, Paul L.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Ward, Philip J.

    2016-04-01

    Understanding global future river flood risk is a prerequisite for the quantification of climate change impacts and planning effective adaptation strategies. Existing global flood risk projections fail to integrate the combined dynamics of expected socio-economic development and climate change. We present the first global future river flood risk projections that separate the impacts of climate change and socio-economic development. The projections are based on an ensemble of climate model outputs, socio-economic scenarios, and a state-of-the-art hydrologic river flood model combined with socio-economic impact models. Globally, absolute damage may increase by up to a factor of 20 by the end of the century without action. Countries in Southeast Asia face a severe increase in flood risk. Although climate change contributes significantly to the increase in risk in Southeast Asia, we show that it is dwarfed by the effect of socio-economic growth, even after normalization for gross domestic product (GDP) growth. African countries face a strong increase in risk mainly due to socio-economic change. However, when normalized to GDP, climate change becomes by far the strongest driver. Both high- and low-income countries may benefit greatly from investing in adaptation measures, for which our analysis provides a basis.

  11. FLOPROS: an evolving global database of flood protection standards

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scussolini, P.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Jongman, B.; Bouwer, L.M.; Winsemius, H.C.; De Moel, H; Ward, P.J.

    2016-01-01

    With projected changes in climate, population and socioeconomic activity located in flood-prone areas, the global assessment of flood risk is essential to inform climate change policy and disaster risk management. Whilst global flood risk models exist for this purpose, the accuracy of their results

  12. The credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trigg, M.A.; Birch, C.E.; Neal, J.C.; Bates, P.D.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C.C.; Yamazaki, D.; Hirabayashi, Y.; Pappenberger, F.; Dutra, E.; Ward, P.J.; Winsemius, H.C.; Salamon, P.; Dottori, F.; Rudari, R.; Kappes, M.S.; Simpson, A.L.; Hadzilacos, G.; Fewtrell, T.J.

    2016-01-01

    Quantifying flood hazard is an essential component of resilience planning, emergency response, and mitigation, including insurance. Traditionally undertaken at catchment and national scales, recently, efforts have intensified to estimate flood risk globally to better allow consistent and equitable

  13. A Global Geospatial Database of 5000+ Historic Flood Event Extents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tellman, B.; Sullivan, J.; Doyle, C.; Kettner, A.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Erickson, T.; Slayback, D. A.

    2017-12-01

    A key dataset that is missing for global flood model validation and understanding historic spatial flood vulnerability is a global historical geo-database of flood event extents. Decades of earth observing satellites and cloud computing now make it possible to not only detect floods in near real time, but to run these water detection algorithms back in time to capture the spatial extent of large numbers of specific events. This talk will show results from the largest global historical flood database developed to date. We use the Dartmouth Flood Observatory flood catalogue to map over 5000 floods (from 1985-2017) using MODIS, Landsat, and Sentinel-1 Satellites. All events are available for public download via the Earth Engine Catalogue and via a website that allows the user to query floods by area or date, assess population exposure trends over time, and download flood extents in geospatial format.In this talk, we will highlight major trends in global flood exposure per continent, land use type, and eco-region. We will also make suggestions how to use this dataset in conjunction with other global sets to i) validate global flood models, ii) assess the potential role of climatic change in flood exposure iii) understand how urbanization and other land change processes may influence spatial flood exposure iv) assess how innovative flood interventions (e.g. wetland restoration) influence flood patterns v) control for event magnitude to assess the role of social vulnerability and damage assessment vi) aid in rapid probabilistic risk assessment to enable microinsurance markets. Authors on this paper are already using the database for the later three applications and will show examples of wetland intervention analysis in Argentina, social vulnerability analysis in the USA, and micro insurance in India.

  14. An experimental system for flood risk forecasting at global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfieri, L.; Dottori, F.; Kalas, M.; Lorini, V.; Bianchi, A.; Hirpa, F. A.; Feyen, L.; Salamon, P.

    2016-12-01

    Global flood forecasting and monitoring systems are nowadays a reality and are being applied by an increasing range of users and practitioners in disaster risk management. Furthermore, there is an increasing demand from users to integrate flood early warning systems with risk based forecasts, combining streamflow estimations with expected inundated areas and flood impacts. To this end, we have developed an experimental procedure for near-real time flood mapping and impact assessment based on the daily forecasts issued by the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). The methodology translates GloFAS streamflow forecasts into event-based flood hazard maps based on the predicted flow magnitude and the forecast lead time and a database of flood hazard maps with global coverage. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information to derive flood risk. Impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood prone areas, potential economic damage, and affected population, infrastructures and cities. To further increase the reliability of the proposed methodology we integrated model-based estimations with an innovative methodology for social media monitoring, which allows for real-time verification of impact forecasts. The preliminary tests provided good results and showed the potential of the developed real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management. In particular, the link with social media is crucial for improving the accuracy of impact predictions.

  15. Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer - bringing risk information to practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Philip

    2017-04-01

    The economic losses associated with flooding are huge and rising. As a result, there is increasing attention for strategic flood risk assessments at the global scale. In response, the last few years have seen a large growth in the number of global flood models. At the same time, users and practitioners require flood risk information in a format that is easy to use, understandable, transparent, and actionable. In response, we have developed the Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer (wri.org/floods). The Analyzer is a free, online, easy to use, tool for assessing global river flood risk at the scale of countries, states, and river basins, using data generated by the state of the art GLOFRIS global flood risk model. The Analyzer allows users to assess flood risk on-the-fly in terms of expected annual urban damage, and expected annual population and GDP affected by floods. Analyses can be carried out for current conditions and under future scenarios of climate change and socioeconomic development. We will demonstrate the tool, and discuss several of its applications in practice. In the past 15 months, the tool has been visited and used by more than 12,000 unique users from almost every country, including many users from the World Bank, Pacific Disaster Center, Red Cross Climate Centre, as well as many journalists from major international news outlets. Use cases will be presented from these user communities. We will also present ongoing research to improve the user functionality of the tool in the coming year. This includes the inclusion of coastal flood risk, assessing the costs and benefits of adaptation, and assessing the impacts of land subsidence and urban extension on risk.

  16. Effects of climate variability on global scale flood risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, P.; Dettinger, M. D.; Kummu, M.; Jongman, B.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.

    2013-12-01

    In this contribution we demonstrate the influence of climate variability on flood risk. Globally, flooding is one of the worst natural hazards in terms of economic damages; Munich Re estimates global losses in the last decade to be in excess of $240 billion. As a result, scientifically sound estimates of flood risk at the largest scales are increasingly needed by industry (including multinational companies and the insurance industry) and policy communities. Several assessments of global scale flood risk under current and conditions have recently become available, and this year has seen the first studies assessing how flood risk may change in the future due to global change. However, the influence of climate variability on flood risk has as yet hardly been studied, despite the fact that: (a) in other fields (drought, hurricane damage, food production) this variability is as important for policy and practice as long term change; and (b) climate variability has a strong influence in peak riverflows around the world. To address this issue, this contribution illustrates the influence of ENSO-driven climate variability on flood risk, at both the globally aggregated scale and the scale of countries and large river basins. Although it exerts significant and widespread influences on flood peak discharges in many parts of the world, we show that ENSO does not have a statistically significant influence on flood risk once aggregated to global totals. At the scale of individual countries, though, strong relationships exist over large parts of the Earth's surface. For example, we find particularly strong anomalies of flood risk in El Niño or La Niña years (compared to all years) in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially for La Niña), and parts of South America. These findings have large implications for both decadal climate-risk projections and long-term future climate change

  17. Validation of a global hydrodynamic flood inundation model against high resolution observation data of urban flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, Paul; Sampson, Chris; Smith, Andy; Neal, Jeff

    2015-04-01

    In this work we present further validation results for a hyper-resolution global flood inundation model. We use a true hydrodynamic model that uses highly efficient numerical algorithms (LISFLOOD-FP) to simulate flood inundation at ~1km resolution globally and then use downscaling algorithms to determine flood extent and water depth at 3 seconds of arc spatial resolution (~90m at the equator). The global model has ~150 million cells and requires ~180 hours of CPU time for a 10 year simulation period. Terrain data are taken from a custom version of the SRTM data set that has been processed specifically for hydrodynamic modelling. Return periods of flood flows along the entire global river network are determined using: (1) empirical relationships between catchment characteristics and index flood magnitude in different hydroclimatic zones derived from global runoff data; and (2) an index flood growth curve, also empirically derived. Bankful return period flow is then used to set channel width and depth, and flood defence impacts are modelled using empirical relationships between GDP, urbanization and defence standard of protection. The results of these simulations are global flood hazard maps for a number of different return period events from 1 in 5 to 1 in 1000 years. This method has already been show to compare well to return period flood hazard maps derived from models built with high resolution and accuracy local data (Sampson et al., submitted), yet the output from the global flood model has not yet been compared to real flood observations. Whilst the spatial resolution of the global model is high given the size of the model domain, ~1km resolution is still coarse compared to the models typically used to simulate urban flooding and the data typically used to validate these (~25m or less). Comparison of the global model to real-world observations or urban flooding therefore represents an exceptionally stringent test of model skill. In this paper we therefore

  18. Global Floods and Water Availability Driven by Atmospheric Rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paltan, Homero; Waliser, Duane; Lim, Wee Ho; Guan, Bin; Yamazaki, Dai; Pant, Raghav; Dadson, Simon

    2017-10-01

    While emerging regional evidence shows that atmospheric rivers (ARs) can exert strong impacts on local water availability and flooding, their role in shaping global hydrological extremes has not yet been investigated. Here we quantify the relative contribution of ARs variability to both flood hazard and water availability. We find that globally, precipitation from ARs contributes 22% of total global runoff, with a number of regions reaching 50% or more. In areas where their influence is strongest, ARs may increase the occurrence of floods by 80%, while absence of ARs may increase the occurrence of hydrological droughts events by up to 90%. We also find that 300 million people are exposed to additional floods and droughts due the occurrence of ARs. ARs provide a source of hydroclimatic variability whose beneficial or damaging effects depend on the capacity of water resources managers to predict and adapt to them.

  19. ENSO impacts on flood risk at the global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Philip; Dettinger, Michael; Jongman, Brenden; Kummu, Matti; Winsemius, Hessel

    2014-05-01

    We present the impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on society and the economy, via relationships between ENSO and the hydrological cycle. We also discuss ways in which this knowledge can be used in disaster risk management and risk reduction. This contribution provides the most recent results of an ongoing 4-year collaborative research initiative to assess and map the impacts of large scale interannual climate variability on flood hazard and risk at the global scale. We have examined anomalies in flood risk between ENSO phases, whereby flood risk is expressed in terms of indicators such as: annual expected damage; annual expected affected population; annual expected affected Gross Domestic Product (GDP). We show that large anomalies in flood risk occur during El Niño or La Niña years in basins covering large parts of the Earth's surface. These anomalies reach statistical significance river basins covering almost two-thirds of the Earth's surface. Particularly strong anomalies exist in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially La Niña anomalies), and parts of South America. We relate these anomalies to possible causal relationships between ENSO and flood hazard, using both modelled and observed data on flood occurrence and extremity. The implications for flood risk management are many-fold. In those regions where disaster risk is strongly influenced by ENSO, the potential predictably of ENSO could be used to develop probabilistic flood risk projections with lead times up to several seasons. Such data could be used by the insurance industry in managing risk portfolios and by multinational companies for assessing the robustness of their supply chains to potential flood-related interruptions. Seasonal forecasts of ENSO influence of peak flows could also allow for improved flood early warning and regulation by dam operators, which could also reduce overall risks

  20. Validation of individual and aggregate global flood hazard models for two major floods in Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trigg, M.; Bernhofen, M.; Whyman, C.

    2017-12-01

    A recent intercomparison of global flood hazard models undertaken by the Global Flood Partnership shows that there is an urgent requirement to undertake more validation of the models against flood observations. As part of the intercomparison, the aggregated model dataset resulting from the project was provided as open access data. We compare the individual and aggregated flood extent output from the six global models and test these against two major floods in the African Continent within the last decade, namely severe flooding on the Niger River in Nigeria in 2012, and on the Zambezi River in Mozambique in 2007. We test if aggregating different number and combination of models increases model fit to the observations compared with the individual model outputs. We present results that illustrate some of the challenges of comparing imperfect models with imperfect observations and also that of defining the probability of a real event in order to test standard model output probabilities. Finally, we propose a collective set of open access validation flood events, with associated observational data and descriptions that provide a standard set of tests across different climates and hydraulic conditions.

  1. Global projections of river flood risk in a warmer world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfieri, Lorenzo; Bisselink, Berny; Dottori, Francesco; Naumann, Gustavo; de Roo, Ad; Salamon, Peter; Wyser, Klaus; Feyen, Luc

    2017-02-01

    Rising global temperature has put increasing pressure on understanding the linkage between atmospheric warming and the occurrence of natural hazards. While the Paris Agreement has set the ambitious target to limiting global warming to 1.5°C compared to preindustrial levels, scientists are urged to explore scenarios for different warming thresholds and quantify ranges of socioeconomic impact. In this work, we present a framework to estimate the economic damage and population affected by river floods at global scale. It is based on a modeling cascade involving hydrological, hydraulic and socioeconomic impact simulations, and makes use of state-of-the-art global layers of hazard, exposure and vulnerability at 1-km grid resolution. An ensemble of seven high-resolution global climate projections based on Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 is used to derive streamflow simulations in the present and in the future climate. Those were analyzed to assess the frequency and magnitude of river floods and their impacts under scenarios corresponding to 1.5°C, 2°C, and 4°C global warming. Results indicate a clear positive correlation between atmospheric warming and future flood risk at global scale. At 4°C global warming, countries representing more than 70% of the global population and global gross domestic product will face increases in flood risk in excess of 500%. Changes in flood risk are unevenly distributed, with the largest increases in Asia, U.S., and Europe. In contrast, changes are statistically not significant in most countries in Africa and Oceania for all considered warming levels.

  2. A high-resolution global flood hazard model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampson, Christopher C.; Smith, Andrew M.; Bates, Paul B.; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Freer, Jim E.

    2015-09-01

    Floods are a natural hazard that affect communities worldwide, but to date the vast majority of flood hazard research and mapping has been undertaken by wealthy developed nations. As populations and economies have grown across the developing world, so too has demand from governments, businesses, and NGOs for modeled flood hazard data in these data-scarce regions. We identify six key challenges faced when developing a flood hazard model that can be applied globally and present a framework methodology that leverages recent cross-disciplinary advances to tackle each challenge. The model produces return period flood hazard maps at ˜90 m resolution for the whole terrestrial land surface between 56°S and 60°N, and results are validated against high-resolution government flood hazard data sets from the UK and Canada. The global model is shown to capture between two thirds and three quarters of the area determined to be at risk in the benchmark data without generating excessive false positive predictions. When aggregated to ˜1 km, mean absolute error in flooded fraction falls to ˜5%. The full complexity global model contains an automatically parameterized subgrid channel network, and comparison to both a simplified 2-D only variant and an independently developed pan-European model shows the explicit inclusion of channels to be a critical contributor to improved model performance. While careful processing of existing global terrain data sets enables reasonable model performance in urban areas, adoption of forthcoming next-generation global terrain data sets will offer the best prospect for a step-change improvement in model performance.

  3. Towards a 1km resolution global flood risk model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, Paul; Neal, Jeff; Sampson, Chris; Smith, Andy

    2014-05-01

    Recent advances in computationally efficient numerical algorithms and new High Performance Computing architectures now make high (1-2km) resolution global hydrodynamic models a realistic proposition. However in many areas of the world the data sets and tools necessary to undertake such modelling do not currently exist. In particular, five major problems need to be resolved: (1) the best globally available terrain data (SRTM) was generated from X-band interferometric radar data which does not penetrate vegetation canopies and which has significant problems in determining ground elevations in urban areas; (2) a global river bathymetry data set does not currently exist; (3) most river channels globally are less than the smallest currently resolvable grid scale (1km) and therefore require a sub-grid treatment; (4) a means to estimate the magnitude of the T year flood at any point along the global river network does not currently exist; and (5) a large proportion of flood losses are generated by off-floodplain surface water flows which are not well represented in current hydrodynamic modelling systems. In this paper we propose solutions to each of these five issues as part of a concerted effort to develop a 1km (or better) resolution global flood hazard model. We describe the new numerical algorithms, computer architectures and computational resources used, and demonstrate solutions to the five previously intractable problems identified above. We conduct a validation study of the modelling against satellite imagery of major flooding on the Mississippi-Missouri confluence plain in the central USA before outlining a proof-of-concept regional study for SE Asia as a step towards a global scale model. For SE Asia we simulate flood hazard for ten different flood return periods over the entire Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, Malaysia and Laos region at 1km resolution and show that the modelling produces coherent, consistent and sensible simulations of extent and water depth.

  4. Flood damage curves for consistent global risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Moel, Hans; Huizinga, Jan; Szewczyk, Wojtek

    2016-04-01

    Assessing potential damage of flood events is an important component in flood risk management. Determining direct flood damage is commonly done using depth-damage curves, which denote the flood damage that would occur at specific water depths per asset or land-use class. Many countries around the world have developed flood damage models using such curves which are based on analysis of past flood events and/or on expert judgement. However, such damage curves are not available for all regions, which hampers damage assessments in those regions. Moreover, due to different methodologies employed for various damage models in different countries, damage assessments cannot be directly compared with each other, obstructing also supra-national flood damage assessments. To address these problems, a globally consistent dataset of depth-damage curves has been developed. This dataset contains damage curves depicting percent of damage as a function of water depth as well as maximum damage values for a variety of assets and land use classes (i.e. residential, commercial, agriculture). Based on an extensive literature survey concave damage curves have been developed for each continent, while differentiation in flood damage between countries is established by determining maximum damage values at the country scale. These maximum damage values are based on construction cost surveys from multinational construction companies, which provide a coherent set of detailed building cost data across dozens of countries. A consistent set of maximum flood damage values for all countries was computed using statistical regressions with socio-economic World Development Indicators from the World Bank. Further, based on insights from the literature survey, guidance is also given on how the damage curves and maximum damage values can be adjusted for specific local circumstances, such as urban vs. rural locations, use of specific building material, etc. This dataset can be used for consistent supra

  5. New version of 1 km global river flood hazard maps for the next generation of Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutanudjaja, Edwin; van Beek, Rens; Winsemius, Hessel; Ward, Philip; Bierkens, Marc

    2017-04-01

    The Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer, launched in 2015, is an open-access and free-of-charge web-based interactive platform which assesses and visualises current and future projections of river flood impacts across the globe. One of the key components in the Analyzer is a set of river flood inundation hazard maps derived from the global hydrological model simulation of PCR-GLOBWB. For the current version of the Analyzer, accessible on http://floods.wri.org/#/, the early generation of PCR-GLOBWB 1.0 was used and simulated at 30 arc-minute ( 50 km at the equator) resolution. In this presentation, we will show the new version of these hazard maps. This new version is based on the latest version of PCR-GLOBWB 2.0 (https://github.com/UU-Hydro/PCR-GLOBWB_model, Sutanudjaja et al., 2016, doi:10.5281/zenodo.60764) simulated at 5 arc-minute ( 10 km at the equator) resolution. The model simulates daily hydrological and water resource fluxes and storages, including the simulation of overbank volume that ends up on the floodplain (if flooding occurs). The simulation was performed for the present day situation (from 1960) and future climate projections (until 2099) using the climate forcing created in the ISI-MIP project. From the simulated flood inundation volume time series, we then extract annual maxima for each cell, and fit these maxima to a Gumbel extreme value distribution. This allows us to derive flood volume maps of any hazard magnitude (ranging from 2-year to 1000-year flood events) and for any time period (e.g. 1960-1999, 2010-2049, 2030-2069, and 2060-2099). The derived flood volumes (at 5 arc-minute resolution) are then spread over the high resolution terrain model using an updated GLOFRIS downscaling module (Winsemius et al., 2013, doi:10.5194/hess-17-1871-2013). The updated version performs a volume spreading sequentially from more upstream basins to downstream basins, hence enabling a better inclusion of smaller streams, and takes into account spreading of water

  6. Global Rapid Flood Mapping System with Spaceborne SAR Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yun, S. H.; Owen, S. E.; Hua, H.; Agram, P. S.; Fattahi, H.; Liang, C.; Manipon, G.; Fielding, E. J.; Rosen, P. A.; Webb, F.; Simons, M.

    2017-12-01

    As part of the Advanced Rapid Imaging and Analysis (ARIA) project for Natural Hazards, at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and California Institute of Technology, we have developed an automated system that produces derived products for flood extent map generation using spaceborne SAR data. The system takes user's input of area of interest polygons and time window for SAR data search (pre- and post-event). Then the system automatically searches and downloads SAR data, processes them to produce coregistered SAR image pairs, and generates log amplitude ratio images from each pair. Currently the system is automated to support SAR data from the European Space Agency's Sentinel-1A/B satellites. We have used the system to produce flood extent maps from Sentinel-1 SAR data for the May 2017 Sri Lanka floods, which killed more than 200 people and displaced about 600,000 people. Our flood extent maps were delivered to the Red Cross to support response efforts. Earlier we also responded to the historic August 2016 Louisiana floods in the United States, which claimed 13 people's lives and caused over $10 billion property damage. For this event, we made synchronized observations from space, air, and ground in close collaboration with USGS and NOAA. The USGS field crews acquired ground observation data, and NOAA acquired high-resolution airborne optical imagery within the time window of +/-2 hours of the SAR data acquisition by JAXA's ALOS-2 satellite. The USGS coordinates of flood water boundaries were used to calibrate our flood extent map derived from the ALOS-2 SAR data, and the map was delivered to FEMA for estimating the number of households affected. Based on the lessons learned from this response effort, we customized the ARIA system automation for rapid flood mapping and developed a mobile friendly web app that can easily be used in the field for data collection. Rapid automatic generation of SAR-based global flood maps calibrated with independent observations from

  7. Neutrons for global energy solutions. Book of abstracts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    The book of abstracts of the conference on neutrons for global energy solutions include contributions to the following topics: Views from politics: What do we need in European energy research: cooperation, large facilities, more science? Fundamental research for energy supply. View from the United States. View from industry: Neutrons for nuclear reactor development in transition stage between generation III and generation IV. Toyotas's expectations for neutron analysis. Instrumentation and cross cutting issues. Energy sources. Waste management and environment. Li ion batteries. Photovoltaics. Savings and catalysis. Fuel cells. Hydrogen storage.

  8. Looking at the big scale - Global Flood Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burek, P.; Alfieri, L.; Thielen-del Pozo, J.; Muraro, D.; Pappenberger, F.; Krzeminsk, B.

    2012-04-01

    Reacting to the increasing need for better preparedness to worldwide hydrological extremes, the Joint Research Centre has joined forces with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF), to couple state-of-the art weather forecasts with a hydrological model on global scale. On a pre-operationally basis a fully hydro-meteorological flood forecasting model is running since July 2011 and producing daily probabilistic discharge forecast with worldwide coverage and forecast horizon of about 1 month. An important aspect of this global system is that it is set-up on continental scale and therefore independent of administrative and political boundaries - providing downstream countries with information on upstream river conditions as well as continental and global overviews. The prototype of a Global Flood Alert System consists of HTESSEL land surface scheme coupled with LISFLOOD hydrodynamic model for the flow routing in the river network. Both hydrological models are set up on global coverage with horizontal grid resolution of 0.1° and daily time step for input and output data. To estimate corresponding discharge warning thresholds for selected return periods, the coupled HTESSEL-LISFLOOD hydrological model is driven with ERA-Interim input meteorological data for a 21 year period from 1989 onward. For daily forecasts the ensemble stream flow predictions are run by feeding Variable Resolution Ensemble Prediction System (VarEPS) weather forecasts into the coupled model. VarEPS consist of 51-member ensemble global forecasts for 15 days. The hydrological simulations are computed for a 45-day time horizon, to account the routing of flood waves through large river basins with time of concentration of the order of one month. Both results, the discharge thresholds from the long term run and the multiple hydrographs of the daily ensemble stream flow prediction are joined together to produce probabilistic information of critical threshold exceedance. Probabilistic

  9. Global Projections of River Flood Risk at Specific Warming Levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfieri, L.; Feyen, L.; Dottori, F.; Naumann, G.; Bianchi, A.; De Roo, A. P. J.; Bernard, B.; Hirpa, F. A.; Salamon, P.

    2016-12-01

    The ongoing rise in global average temperature has put increasing pressure on understanding the links between atmospheric warming and the occurrence of natural hazards. While the Paris Agreement has set the ambitious target to limit global warming to 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels, scientist are urged to explore scenarios for different warming thresholds and quantify ranges of socio-economic impact. In this work, we present a framework to estimate the economic damage and population affected by river floods. It is based on a modeling cascade involving hydrological, hydraulic and socio-economic impact simulations. The modeling framework is designed to perform global scale simulations with hazard and risk mapping at 1 km spatial resolution. Furthermore, it relies on state-of-the-art exposure and vulnerability information. We forced the global hydrological model with an ensemble of seven high-resolution climate projections based on RCP8.5 to derive a streamflow climatology of up to 160 years of daily data starting in 1971. This was used to assess the frequency and magnitude of river floods over time slices centered on the years of exceeding specific warming levels of 1.5, 2, and 4 °C. Results indicate a clear positive correlation between atmospheric warming and future flood risk at global scale. Changes in flood risk appear unevenly distributed, with the largest increases in Asia, America and Europe. On the other hand, changes are statistically not significant in most countries in Africa and Oceania for all considered warming levels.

  10. Global projections of changing risks of flood under the global warming simulated by MIROC GCM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirabayashi, Y.; Kanae, S.

    2008-12-01

    Simulated daily discharge derived from a relatively high-resolution (T106; about 1.1-degree) general circulation model (GCM) was used to investigate future projections of population changes under risks of more frequent flooding. A statistically significant increase or decrease in flood frequency was not predicted in the 20th century, and they are first appeared around the middle of the 21st century in 21 of 30 large global rivers. Statistics of world disasters indicated that the mean population impacted by flood disasters from 1991 to 2000 was 1.45 billion (2.5% of total population). The simulated global mean population which has affected by daily discharge higher than the 20C 100-year flood (defined using daily discharge from 1901 to 2000) was about 0.51 billion (0.9% of total population) for 1991-2000, while for 2091-2100 this increases to 6.96 billion (9.5% of total population). Minimum of flood-affected population after the middle of the 21st century becomes higher than the maximum of flood-affected population in the 20th century. Annual fluctuation of the recorded flood-affected population was higher than that estimated using the modeled 20C 100-year flood. It is therefore important to show ranges of the flood-affected population in the model simulation using a statistical method, taking into account years when floods are concentrated in high- populated regions and years when most floods occurred in low-populated regions. Statistical analysis using the Monte Carlo approach revealed that the population experiencing daily discharge higher than the 20C 100-year flood from 2091 to 2100 is in the top 35% of the ranges of possible number of populations (sum of population in regions that were randomly selected from global land of the same area as the regions with flood discharge), while that in 1991-2000 was below 30% of the probable population sets. This result indicates that future flood increases will be more common in regions with high population densities.

  11. ABSTRACT

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    University Health Services. Ahmadu Bella University, Zaria, Nigeria. ABSTRACT. Phywieo-chemical methods were used to analyse the commonly used lcualt samples bought from Zaria and Kano local markets. Blood-leadaoncentrations in ltuali ...

  12. Developing a Global Database of Historic Flood Events to Support Machine Learning Flood Prediction in Google Earth Engine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tellman, B.; Sullivan, J.; Kettner, A.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Slayback, D. A.; Kuhn, C.; Doyle, C.

    2016-12-01

    There is an increasing need to understand flood vulnerability as the societal and economic effects of flooding increases. Risk models from insurance companies and flood models from hydrologists must be calibrated based on flood observations in order to make future predictions that can improve planning and help societies reduce future disasters. Specifically, to improve these models both traditional methods of flood prediction from physically based models as well as data-driven techniques, such as machine learning, require spatial flood observation to validate model outputs and quantify uncertainty. A key dataset that is missing for flood model validation is a global historical geo-database of flood event extents. Currently, the most advanced database of historical flood extent is hosted and maintained at the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) that has catalogued 4320 floods (1985-2015) but has only mapped 5% of these floods. We are addressing this data gap by mapping the inventory of floods in the DFO database to create a first-of- its-kind, comprehensive, global and historical geospatial database of flood events. To do so, we combine water detection algorithms on MODIS and Landsat 5,7 and 8 imagery in Google Earth Engine to map discrete flood events. The created database will be available in the Earth Engine Catalogue for download by country, region, or time period. This dataset can be leveraged for new data-driven hydrologic modeling using machine learning algorithms in Earth Engine's highly parallelized computing environment, and we will show examples for New York and Senegal.

  13. Abstract

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Francis

    Abstract. Aqueous, methanol and chloroform extracts from the leaves of Ficus religiosa, Thespesia populnea and Hibiscus tiliaceus were completely screened for antibacterial and antifungal activity. The chloroform extract of F. religiosa possessed a broad spectrum of antibacterial activity with a zone of inhibition of 10 to 21 ...

  14. Abstract,

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Abstract·. A study was carried out to investigate the effect of overso~ing legumes on ~a~gela~d pe'rtormance in. Shinyanga'region, Tanzania. Four leguminous species namely Centrosema pubescence, Clito-':iii ternatea,. cMacroptilium atropurpureum and Stylosanthes hamata were Qversown in. a"natural ran,geland in a.

  15. Abstract

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    65

    Abstract. For well over three hundred years, the monsoon has been considered to be a gigantic land-sea breeze driven by the land-ocean contrast in surface temperature. In this paper, this hypothesis ..... primary driver of the monsoon in many papers and most textbooks (e.g. Lau and Li, 1984,. Webster 1987a, Meehl 1994, ...

  16. ABSTRACT

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Email: jameskigera@yahoo.co.uk. ABSTRACT. Background: Implant orthopaedic surgery is associated with a risk of post operative Surgical Site. Infection (SSI). This can have devastating consequences in the case of arthroplasty. Due to the less than ideal circumstances under which surgery is conducted in Africa, there are ...

  17. Abstract

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    WORKERS ON THEIR JOB PERFORMANCE IN IMO STATE, NIGERIA. NGOZI OKEREKE AND no. ONU. ABSTRACT. The study focused on the. efl'ect of socioeconomic characteristics of field extension workers on their job performance in.1mo state agricultural development programme, Nigeria. Data was collected with the ...

  18. Abstract

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PROF. OLIVER OSUAGWA

    Abstract. Many mathematical models of stochastic dynamical systems were based on the assumption that the drift and volatility coefficients were linear function of the solution. In this work, we arrive at the drift and the volatility by observing the dynamics of change in the selected stocks in a sufficiently small interval t∆ .

  19. Assessment of global flood exposures - developing an appropriate approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millinship, Ian; Booth, Naomi

    2015-04-01

    Increasingly complex probabilistic catastrophe models have become the standard for quantitative flood risk assessments by re/insurance companies. On the one hand, probabilistic modelling of this nature is extremely useful; a large range of risk metrics can be output. However, they can be time consuming and computationally expensive to develop and run. Levels of uncertainty are persistently high despite, or perhaps because of, attempts to increase resolution and complexity. A cycle of dependency between modelling companies and re/insurers has developed whereby available models are purchased, models run, and both portfolio and model data 'improved' every year. This can lead to potential exposures in perils and territories that are not currently modelled being largely overlooked by companies, who may then face substantial and unexpected losses when large events occur in these areas. We present here an approach to assessing global flood exposures which reduces the scale and complexity of approach used and begins with the identification of hotspots where there is a significant exposure to flood risk. The method comprises four stages: i) compile consistent exposure information, ii) to apply reinsurance terms and conditions to calculate values exposed, iii) to assess the potential hazard using a global set of flood hazard maps, and iv) to identify potential risk 'hotspots' which include considerations of spatially and/or temporally clustered historical events, and local flood defences. This global exposure assessment is designed as a scoping exercise, and reveals areas or cities where the potential for accumulated loss is of significant interest to a reinsurance company, and for which there is no existing catastrophe model. These regions are then candidates for the development of deterministic scenarios, or probabilistic models. The key advantages of this approach will be discussed. These include simplicity and ability of business leaders to understand results, as well as

  20. On the Use of Global Flood Forecasts and Satellite-Derived Inundation Maps for Flood Monitoring in Data-Sparse Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beatriz Revilla-Romero

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Early flood warning and real-time monitoring systems play a key role in flood risk reduction and disaster response decisions. Global-scale flood forecasting and satellite-based flood detection systems are currently operating, however their reliability for decision-making applications needs to be assessed. In this study, we performed comparative evaluations of several operational global flood forecasting and flood detection systems, using 10 major flood events recorded over 2012–2014. Specifically, we evaluated the spatial extent and temporal characteristics of flood detections from the Global Flood Detection System (GFDS and the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS. Furthermore, we compared the GFDS flood maps with those from NASA’s two Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS sensors. Results reveal that: (1 general agreement was found between the GFDS and MODIS flood detection systems, (2 large differences exist in the spatio-temporal characteristics of the GFDS detections and GloFAS forecasts, and (3 the quantitative validation of global flood disasters in data-sparse regions is highly challenging. Overall, satellite remote sensing provides useful near real-time flood information that can be useful for risk management. We highlight the known limitations of global flood detection and forecasting systems, and propose ways forward to improve the reliability of large-scale flood monitoring tools.

  1. Downscaling Global Weather Forecast Outputs Using ANN for Flood Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nam Do Hoai

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Downscaling global weather prediction model outputs to individual locations or local scales is a common practice for operational weather forecast in order to correct the model outputs at subgrid scales. This paper presents an empirical-statistical downscaling method for precipitation prediction which uses a feed-forward multilayer perceptron (MLP neural network. The MLP architecture was optimized by considering physical bases that determine the circulation of atmospheric variables. Downscaled precipitation was then used as inputs to the super tank model (runoff model for flood prediction. The case study was conducted for the Thu Bon River Basin, located in Central Vietnam. Study results showed that the precipitation predicted by MLP outperformed that directly obtained from model outputs or downscaled using multiple linear regression. Consequently, flood forecast based on the downscaled precipitation was very encouraging. It has demonstrated as a robust technology, simple to implement, reliable, and universal application for flood prediction through the combination of downscaling model and super tank model.

  2. Rapid-response flood mapping during Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria by the Global Flood Partnership (GFP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, S.; Alfieri, L.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Coughlan, E.; Galantowicz, J. F.; Hong, Y.; Kettner, A.; Nghiem, S. V.; Prados, A. I.; Rudari, R.; Salamon, P.; Trigg, M.; Weerts, A.

    2017-12-01

    The Global Flood Partnership (GFP; https://gfp.jrc.ec.europa.eu) is a multi-disciplinary group of scientists, operational agencies and flood risk managers focused on developing efficient and effective global flood management tools. Launched in 2014, its aim is to establish a partnership for global flood forecasting, monitoring and impact assessment to strengthen preparedness and response and to reduce global disaster losses. International organizations, the private sector, national authorities, universities and research agencies contribute to the GFP on a voluntary basis and benefit from a global network focused on flood risk reduction. At the onset of Hurricane Harvey, GFP was `activated' using email requests via its mailing service. Soon after, flood inundation maps, based on remote sensing analysis and modeling, were shared by different agencies, institutions, and individuals. These products were disseminated, to varying degrees of effectiveness, to federal, state and local agencies via emails and data-sharing services. This generated a broad data-sharing network which was utilized at the early stages of Hurricane Irma's impact, just two weeks after Harvey. In this presentation, we will describe the extent and chronology of the GFP response to both Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria. We will assess the potential usefulness of this effort for event managers in various types of organizations and discuss future improvements to be implemented.

  3. Global warming may lead to catastrophic floods in the Himalayas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tveitdal, Svein; Bjoerke, Aake

    2002-01-01

    In Nepal, data from 49 surveillance stations show that there has been a distinct temperature increase since the middle of the 1970s, the greatest changes being on the highest summits. When lakes overfill and beaches threaten to break down, this is a result of the global warming that melts the glaciers. The glaciers in Bhutan are observed to decrease by 30 - 40 metres per year, in some years as much as 100 metres. In the village of Tribeni an advanced warning system has been established to warn the 10 000 inhabitants of a potential flood from Lake Tsho Rolpa 108 km upstream. Research from the Himalayas also point to another serious threat. The melting threatens not only human lives, tourism, foot paths, roads, bridges and power stations. Since the mountains are the water towers of the world, filling rivers and lakes with water upon which all life depends, continued shrinking of the world's glaciers as is now observed will cause many rivers and fresh-water systems to dry out. Researchers from the UN Unep programme and International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development have registered at least 44 glacier lakes that are increasing so fast that they may cause outburst floods within five years. Similar investigations are being planned in India, Pakistan and China

  4. Towards a global flood detection system using social media

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Bruijn, Jens; de Moel, Hans; Jongman, Brenden; Aerts, Jeroen

    2017-04-01

    It is widely recognized that an early warning is critical in improving international disaster response. Analysis of social media in real-time can provide valuable information about an event or help to detect unexpected events. For successful and reliable detection systems that work globally, it is important that sufficient data is available and that the algorithm works both in data-rich and data-poor environments. In this study, both a new geotagging system and multi-level event detection system for flood hazards was developed using Twitter data. Geotagging algorithms that regard one tweet as a single document are well-studied. However, no algorithms exist that combine several sequential tweets mentioning keywords regarding a specific event type. Within the time frame of an event, multiple users use event related keywords that refer to the same place name. This notion allows us to treat several sequential tweets posted in the last 24 hours as one document. For all these tweets, we collect a series of spatial indicators given in the tweet metadata and extract additional topological indicators from the text. Using these indicators, we can reduce ambiguity and thus better estimate what locations are tweeted about. Using these localized tweets, Bayesian change-point analysis is used to find significant increases of tweets mentioning countries, provinces or towns. In data-poor environments detection of events on a country level is possible, while in other, data-rich, environments detection on a city level is achieved. Additionally, on a city-level we analyse the spatial dependence of mentioned places. If multiple places within a limited spatial extent are mentioned, detection confidence increases. We run the algorithm using 2 years of Twitter data with flood related keywords in 13 major languages and validate against a flood event database. We find that the geotagging algorithm yields significantly more data than previously developed algorithms and successfully deals

  5. Global exposure to river and coastal flooding - long term trends and changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jongman, B.; Ward, P.J.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

    2012-01-01

    Flood damage modelling has traditionally been limited to the local, regional or national scale. Recent flood events, population growth and climate change concerns have increased the need for global methods with both spatial and temporal dynamics. This paper presents a first estimation of global

  6. Global-scale river flood vulnerability in the last 50 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanoue, Masahiro; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Ikeuchi, Hiroaki

    2016-10-01

    The impacts of flooding are expected to rise due to population increases, economic growth and climate change. Hence, understanding the physical and spatiotemporal characteristics of risk drivers (hazard, exposure and vulnerability) is required to develop effective flood mitigation measures. Here, the long-term trend in flood vulnerability was analysed globally, calculated from the ratio of the reported flood loss or damage to the modelled flood exposure using a global river and inundation model. A previous study showed decreasing global flood vulnerability over a shorter period using different disaster data. The long-term analysis demonstrated for the first time that flood vulnerability to economic losses in upper-middle, lower-middle and low-income countries shows an inverted U-shape, as a result of the balance between economic growth and various historical socioeconomic efforts to reduce damage, leading to non-significant upward or downward trends. We also show that the flood-exposed population is affected by historical changes in population distribution, with changes in flood vulnerability of up to 48.9%. Both increasing and decreasing trends in flood vulnerability were observed in different countries, implying that population growth scenarios considering spatial distribution changes could affect flood risk projections.

  7. Quantifying the effect of autonomous adaptation to global river flood projections: application to future flood risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinoshita, Youhei; Tanoue, Masahiro; Watanabe, Satoshi; Hirabayashi, Yukiko

    2018-01-01

    This study represents the first attempt to quantify the effects of autonomous adaptation on the projection of global flood hazards and to assess future flood risk by including this effect. A vulnerability scenario, which varies according to the autonomous adaptation effect for conventional disaster mitigation efforts, was developed based on historical vulnerability values derived from flood damage records and a river inundation simulation. Coupled with general circulation model outputs and future socioeconomic scenarios, potential future flood fatalities and economic loss were estimated. By including the effect of autonomous adaptation, our multimodel ensemble estimates projected a 2.0% decrease in potential flood fatalities and an 821% increase in potential economic losses by 2100 under the highest emission scenario together with a large population increase. Vulnerability changes reduced potential flood consequences by 64%-72% in terms of potential fatalities and 28%-42% in terms of potential economic losses by 2100. Although socioeconomic changes made the greatest contribution to the potential increased consequences of future floods, about a half of the increase of potential economic losses was mitigated by autonomous adaptation. There is a clear and positive relationship between the global temperature increase from the pre-industrial level and the estimated mean potential flood economic loss, while there is a negative relationship with potential fatalities due to the autonomous adaptation effect. A bootstrapping analysis suggests a significant increase in potential flood fatalities (+5.7%) without any adaptation if the temperature increases by 1.5 °C-2.0 °C, whereas the increase in potential economic loss (+0.9%) was not significant. Our method enables the effects of autonomous adaptation and additional adaptation efforts on climate-induced hazards to be distinguished, which would be essential for the accurate estimation of the cost of adaptation to

  8. Quantification of increased flood risk due to global climate change for urban river management planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morita, M

    2011-01-01

    Global climate change is expected to affect future rainfall patterns. These changes should be taken into account when assessing future flooding risks. This study presents a method for quantifying the increase in flood risk caused by global climate change for use in urban flood risk management. Flood risk in this context is defined as the product of flood damage potential and the probability of its occurrence. The study uses a geographic information system-based flood damage prediction model to calculate the flood damage caused by design storms with different return periods. Estimation of the monetary damages these storms produce and their return periods are precursors to flood risk calculations. The design storms are developed from modified intensity-duration-frequency relationships generated by simulations of global climate change scenarios (e.g. CGCM2A2). The risk assessment method is applied to the Kanda River basin in Tokyo, Japan. The assessment provides insights not only into the flood risk cost increase due to global warming, and the impact that increase may have on flood control infrastructure planning.

  9. Assessing flood risk at the global scale: model setup, results, and sensitivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, Philip J; Jongman, Brenden; Weiland, Frederiek Sperna; Winsemius, Hessel C; Bouwman, Arno; Ligtvoet, Willem; Van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc F P

    2013-01-01

    Globally, economic losses from flooding exceeded $19 billion in 2012, and are rising rapidly. Hence, there is an increasing need for global-scale flood risk assessments, also within the context of integrated global assessments. We have developed and validated a model cascade for producing global flood risk maps, based on numerous flood return-periods. Validation results indicate that the model simulates interannual fluctuations in flood impacts well. The cascade involves: hydrological and hydraulic modelling; extreme value statistics; inundation modelling; flood impact modelling; and estimating annual expected impacts. The initial results estimate global impacts for several indicators, for example annual expected exposed population (169 million); and annual expected exposed GDP ($1383 billion). These results are relatively insensitive to the extreme value distribution employed to estimate low frequency flood volumes. However, they are extremely sensitive to the assumed flood protection standard; developing a database of such standards should be a research priority. Also, results are sensitive to the use of two different climate forcing datasets. The impact model can easily accommodate new, user-defined, impact indicators. We envisage several applications, for example: identifying risk hotspots; calculating macro-scale risk for the insurance industry and large companies; and assessing potential benefits (and costs) of adaptation measures. (letter)

  10. Floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Floods are common in the United States. Weather such as heavy rain, thunderstorms, hurricanes, or tsunamis can ... is breached, or when a dam breaks. Flash floods, which can develop quickly, often have a dangerous ...

  11. An experimental system for flood risk forecasting and monitoring at global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dottori, Francesco; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Kalas, Milan; Lorini, Valerio; Salamon, Peter

    2017-04-01

    Global flood forecasting and monitoring systems are nowadays a reality and are being applied by a wide range of users and practitioners in disaster risk management. Furthermore, there is an increasing demand from users to integrate flood early warning systems with risk based forecasting, combining streamflow estimations with expected inundated areas and flood impacts. Finally, emerging technologies such as crowdsourcing and social media monitoring can play a crucial role in flood disaster management and preparedness. Here, we present some recent advances of an experimental procedure for near-real time flood mapping and impact assessment. The procedure translates in near real-time the daily streamflow forecasts issued by the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) into event-based flood hazard maps, which are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information at global scale to derive risk forecast. Impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood prone areas, potential economic damage, and affected population, infrastructures and cities. To increase the reliability of our forecasts we propose the integration of model-based estimations with an innovative methodology for social media monitoring, which allows for real-time verification and correction of impact forecasts. Finally, we present the results of preliminary tests which show the potential of the proposed procedure in supporting emergency response and management.

  12. Effects of global warming on floods and droughts and related water quality of rivers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Jong, B.

    2006-01-01

    This review focuses on the effect of global warming on droughts, rainstorms and floods and related water quality of rivers. Relations of temperature, rainstorms and river discharges with water quality variables like water temperature, chemical concentrations and microbiological activity are

  13. Flooding and Flood Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, K.N.; Fallon, J.D.; Lorenz, D.L.; Stark, J.R.; Menard, Jason; Easter, K.W.; Perry, Jim

    2011-01-01

    Floods result in great human disasters globally and nationally, causing an average of $4 billion of damages each year in the United States. Minnesota has its share of floods and flood damages, and the state has awarded nearly $278 million to local units of government for flood mitigation projects through its Flood Hazard Mitigation Grant Program. Since 1995, flood mitigation in the Red River Valley has exceeded $146 million. Considerable local and state funding has been provided to manage and mitigate problems of excess stormwater in urban areas, flooding of farmlands, and flood damages at road crossings. The cumulative costs involved with floods and flood mitigation in Minnesota are not known precisely, but it is safe to conclude that flood mitigation is a costly business. This chapter begins with a description of floods in Minneosta to provide examples and contrasts across the state. Background material is presented to provide a basic understanding of floods and flood processes, predication, and management and mitigation. Methods of analyzing and characterizing floods are presented because they affect how we respond to flooding and can influence relevant practices. The understanding and perceptions of floods and flooding commonly differ among those who work in flood forecasting, flood protection, or water resource mamnagement and citizens and businesses affected by floods. These differences can become magnified following a major flood, pointing to the need for better understanding of flooding as well as common language to describe flood risks and the uncertainty associated with determining such risks. Expectations of accurate and timely flood forecasts and our ability to control floods do not always match reality. Striving for clarity is important in formulating policies that can help avoid recurring flood damages and costs.

  14. Has the magnitude of floods across the USA changed with global CO2 levels?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirsch, Robert M.; Ryberg, Karen R.

    2012-01-01

    Statistical relationships between annual floods at 200 long-term (85–127 years of record) streamgauges in the coterminous United States and the global mean carbon dioxide concentration (GMCO2) record are explored. The streamgauge locations are limited to those with little or no regulation or urban development. The coterminous US is divided into four large regions and stationary bootstrapping is used to evaluate if the patterns of these statistical associations are significantly different from what would be expected under the null hypothesis that flood magnitudes are independent of GMCO2. In none of the four regions defined in this study is there strong statistical evidence for flood magnitudes increasing with increasing GMCO2. One region, the southwest, showed a statistically significant negative relationship between GMCO2 and flood magnitudes. The statistical methods applied compensate both for the inter-site correlation of flood magnitudes and the shorter-term (up to a few decades) serial correlation of floods.

  15. A Cloud-Based Global Flood Disaster Community Cyber-Infrastructure: Development and Demonstration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Zhanming; Hong, Yang; Khan, Sadiq; Gourley, Jonathan; Flamig, Zachary; Kirschbaum, Dalia; Tang, Guoqiang

    2014-01-01

    Flood disasters have significant impacts on the development of communities globally. This study describes a public cloud-based flood cyber-infrastructure (CyberFlood) that collects, organizes, visualizes, and manages several global flood databases for authorities and the public in real-time, providing location-based eventful visualization as well as statistical analysis and graphing capabilities. In order to expand and update the existing flood inventory, a crowdsourcing data collection methodology is employed for the public with smartphones or Internet to report new flood events, which is also intended to engage citizen-scientists so that they may become motivated and educated about the latest developments in satellite remote sensing and hydrologic modeling technologies. Our shared vision is to better serve the global water community with comprehensive flood information, aided by the state-of-the- art cloud computing and crowdsourcing technology. The CyberFlood presents an opportunity to eventually modernize the existing paradigm used to collect, manage, analyze, and visualize water-related disasters.

  16. An Experimental System for a Global Flood Prediction: From Satellite Precipitation Data to a Flood Inundation Map

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adler, Robert

    2007-01-01

    Floods impact more people globally than any other type of natural disaster. It has been established by experience that the most effective means to reduce the property damage and life loss caused by floods is the development of flood early warning systems. However, advances for such a system have been constrained by the difficulty in estimating rainfall continuously over space (catchment-. national-, continental-. or even global-scale areas) and time (hourly to daily). Particularly, insufficient in situ data, long delay in data transmission and absence of real-time data sharing agreements in many trans-boundary basins hamper the development of a real-time system at the regional to global scale. In many countries around the world, particularly in the tropics where rainfall and flooding co-exist in abundance, satellite-based precipitation estimation may be the best source of rainfall data for those data scarce (ungauged) areas and trans-boundary basins. Satellite remote sensing data acquired and processed in real time can now provide the space-time information on rainfall fluxes needed to monitor severe flood events around the world. This can be achieved by integrating the satellite-derived forcing data with hydrological models, which can be parameterized by a tailored geospatial database. An example that is a key to this progress is NASA's contribution to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), launched in November 1997. Hence, in an effort to evolve toward a more hydrologically-relevant flood alert system, this talk articulates a module-structured framework for quasi-global flood potential naming, that is 'up to date' with the state of the art on satellite rainfall estimation and the improved geospatial datasets. The system is modular in design with the flexibility that permits changes in the model structure and in the choice of components. Four major components included in the system are: 1) multi-satellite precipitation estimation; 2) characterization of

  17. Declining vulnerability to river floods and the global benefits of adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jongman, Brenden; Winsemius, Hessel C; Aerts, Jeroen C J H; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; van Aalst, Maarten K; Kron, Wolfgang; Ward, Philip J

    2015-05-05

    The global impacts of river floods are substantial and rising. Effective adaptation to the increasing risks requires an in-depth understanding of the physical and socioeconomic drivers of risk. Whereas the modeling of flood hazard and exposure has improved greatly, compelling evidence on spatiotemporal patterns in vulnerability of societies around the world is still lacking. Due to this knowledge gap, the effects of vulnerability on global flood risk are not fully understood, and future projections of fatalities and losses available today are based on simplistic assumptions or do not include vulnerability. We show for the first time (to our knowledge) that trends and fluctuations in vulnerability to river floods around the world can be estimated by dynamic high-resolution modeling of flood hazard and exposure. We find that rising per-capita income coincided with a global decline in vulnerability between 1980 and 2010, which is reflected in decreasing mortality and losses as a share of the people and gross domestic product exposed to inundation. The results also demonstrate that vulnerability levels in low- and high-income countries have been converging, due to a relatively strong trend of vulnerability reduction in developing countries. Finally, we present projections of flood losses and fatalities under 100 individual scenario and model combinations, and three possible global vulnerability scenarios. The projections emphasize that materialized flood risk largely results from human behavior and that future risk increases can be largely contained using effective disaster risk reduction strategies.

  18. A global framework for future costs and benefits of river-flood protection in urban areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Philip J.; Jongman, Brenden; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Bates, Paul D.; Botzen, Wouter J. W.; Diaz Loaiza, Andres; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kind, Jarl M.; Kwadijk, Jaap; Scussolini, Paolo; Winsemius, Hessel C.

    2017-09-01

    Floods cause billions of dollars of damage each year, and flood risks are expected to increase due to socio-economic development, subsidence, and climate change. Implementing additional flood risk management measures can limit losses, protecting people and livelihoods. Whilst several models have been developed to assess global-scale river-flood risk, methods for evaluating flood risk management investments globally are lacking. Here, we present a framework for assessing costs and benefits of structural flood protection measures in urban areas around the world. We demonstrate its use under different assumptions of current and future climate change and socio-economic development. Under these assumptions, investments in dykes may be economically attractive for reducing risk in large parts of the world, but not everywhere. In some regions, economically efficient investments could reduce future flood risk below today’s levels, in spite of climate change and economic growth. We also demonstrate the sensitivity of the results to different assumptions and parameters. The framework can be used to identify regions where river-flood protection investments should be prioritized, or where other risk-reducing strategies should be emphasized.

  19. A Global Flood Model in the Context of the Global Assessment Report 2015: methodology presentation and discussion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudari, Roberto; Campo, Lorenzo; Silvestro, Francesco; Herold, Christian

    2015-04-01

    The Global Assessment Report (GAR) is a major initiative of the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR). It contributes to the achievement of the Hyogo Framework of Action (HFA) through monitoring risk patterns and trends and progress in disaster risk reduction and by providing guidance, to governments and non-governmental actors alike, on why and how they can, together, reduce disaster risks. Among its goals is an enhanced Global Risk Model, addressing gaps in current knowledge on risk patterns and trends and providing accurate and credible information for the global disaster risk reduction community. Within this goal the present work aimed at improving the Global Flood Model. The contribution will focus on the Hazard maps definition starting form a combination of stream-flow gauges frequency analysis and Hydrologic-hydraulic modelling. The Hazard maps produced by the Global Flood Model are not considering flood defences and are therefore not suitable as such for risk parameters computations; a post-processing procedure to consider flood defences is proposed and applied. The Hazard maps are then used to produce a full set of Possible Flood scenarios in order to compute PML curves. Results are discussed with reference to some example countries highlighting advantages and limitations of the approach undertaken.

  20. Global Near Real-Time Satellite-based Flood Monitoring and Product Dissemination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, M.; Slayback, D. A.; Policelli, F.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Tokay, M.

    2012-12-01

    Flooding is among the most destructive, frequent, and costly natural disasters faced by modern society, with several major events occurring each year. In the past few years, major floods have devastated parts of China, Thailand, Pakistan, Australia, and the Philippines, among others. The toll of these events, in financial costs, displacement of individuals, and deaths, is substantial and continues to rise as climate change generates more extreme weather events. When these events do occur, the disaster management community requires frequently updated and easily accessible information to better understand the extent of flooding and better coordinate response efforts. With funding from NASA's Applied Sciences program, we have developed, and are now operating, a near real-time global flood mapping system to help provide critical flood extent information within 24-48 hours after flooding events. The system applies a water detection algorithm to MODIS imagery received from the LANCE (Land Atmosphere Near real-time Capability for EOS) system at NASA Goddard. The LANCE system typically processes imagery in less than 3 hours after satellite overpass, and our flood mapping system can output flood products within ½ hour of acquiring the LANCE products. Using imagery from both the Terra (10:30 AM local time overpass) and Aqua (1:30 PM) platforms allows an initial assessment of flooding extent by late afternoon, every day, and more robust assessments after accumulating imagery over a longer period; the MODIS sensors are optical, so cloud cover remains an issue, which is partly overcome by using multiple looks over one or more days. Other issues include the relatively coarse scale of the MODIS imagery (250 meters), the difficulty of detecting flood waters in areas with continuous canopy cover, confusion of shadow (cloud or terrain) with water, and accurately identifying detected water as flood as opposed to normal water extents. We have made progress on some of these issues

  1. A global classification of coastal flood hazard climates associated with large-scale oceanographic forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rueda, Ana; Vitousek, Sean; Camus, Paula; Tomás, Antonio; Espejo, Antonio; Losada, Inigo J; Barnard, Patrick L; Erikson, Li H; Ruggiero, Peter; Reguero, Borja G; Mendez, Fernando J

    2017-07-11

    Coastal communities throughout the world are exposed to numerous and increasing threats, such as coastal flooding and erosion, saltwater intrusion and wetland degradation. Here, we present the first global-scale analysis of the main drivers of coastal flooding due to large-scale oceanographic factors. Given the large dimensionality of the problem (e.g. spatiotemporal variability in flood magnitude and the relative influence of waves, tides and surge levels), we have performed a computer-based classification to identify geographical areas with homogeneous climates. Results show that 75% of coastal regions around the globe have the potential for very large flooding events with low probabilities (unbounded tails), 82% are tide-dominated, and almost 49% are highly susceptible to increases in flooding frequency due to sea-level rise.

  2. Global assessment of river flood protection benefits and corresponding residual risks under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Wee Ho; Yamazaki, Dai; Koirala, Sujan; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Kanae, Shinjiro; Dadson, Simon J.; Hall, Jim W.

    2016-04-01

    Global warming increases the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere and this could lead to more intense rainfalls and possibly increasing natural hazards in the form of flooding in some regions. This implies that traditional practice of using historical hydrological records alone is somewhat limited for supporting long-term water infrastructure planning. This has motivated recent global scale studies to evaluate river flood risks (e.g., Hirabayashi et al., 2013, Arnell and Gosling, 2014, Sadoff et al., 2015) and adaptations benefits (e.g., Jongman et al., 2015). To support decision-making in river flood risk reduction, this study takes a further step to examine the benefits and corresponding residual risks for a range of flood protection levels. To do that, we channelled runoff information of a baseline period (forced by observed hydroclimate conditions) and each CMIP5 model (historic and future periods) into a global river routing model called CaMa-Flood (Yamazaki et al., 2011). We incorporated the latest global river width data (Yamazaki et al., 2014) into CaMa-Flood and simulate the river water depth at a spatial resolution of 15 min x 15 min. From the simulated results of baseline period, we use the annual maxima river water depth to fit the Gumbel distribution and prepare the return period-flood risk relationship (involving population and GDP). From the simulated results of CMIP5 model, we also used the annual maxima river water depth to obtain the Gumbel distribution and then estimate the exceedance probability (historic and future periods). We apply the return period-flood risk relationship (above) to the exceedance probability and evaluate the flood protection benefits. We quantify the corresponding residual risks using a mathematical approach that is consistent with the modelling structure of CaMa-Flood. Globally and regionally, we find that the benefits of flood protection level peak somewhere between 20 and 500 years; residual risks diminish

  3. Annual flood sensitivities to El Niño-Southern Oscillation at the global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Philip J.; Eisner, S.; Flörke, M.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Kummu, M.

    2013-01-01

    Floods are amongst the most dangerous natural hazards in terms of economic damage. Whilst a growing number of studies have examined how river floods are influenced by climate change, the role of natural modes of interannual climate variability remains poorly understood. We present the first global assessment of the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on annual river floods, defined here as the peak daily discharge in a given year. The analysis was carried out by simulating daily gridded discharges using the WaterGAP model (Water – a Global Assessment and Prognosis), and examining statistical relationships between these discharges and ENSO indices. We found that, over the period 1958–2000, ENSO exerted a significant influence on annual floods in river basins covering over a third of the world's land surface, and that its influence on annual floods has been much greater than its influence on average flows. We show that there are more areas in which annual floods intensify with La Niña and decline with El Niño than vice versa. However, we also found that in many regions the strength of the relationships between ENSO and annual floods have been non-stationary, with either strengthening or weakening trends during the study period. We discuss the implications of these findings for science and management. Given the strong relationships between ENSO and annual floods, we suggest that more research is needed to assess relationships between ENSO and flood impacts (e.g. loss of lives or economic damage). Moreover, we suggest that in those regions where useful relationships exist, this information could be combined with ongoing advances in ENSO prediction research, in order to provide year-to-year probabilistic flood risk forecasts.

  4. Flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... have high levels of raw sewage or other hazardous substances. Early symptoms from exposure to contaminated flood water ... for commercial building and school maintenance. Basic mold hazards . ... and the waste management options available. Burying or burning is no longer ...

  5. Multi-Model Projections of River Flood Risk in Europe under Global Warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorenzo Alfieri

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge on the costs of natural disasters under climate change is key information for planning adaptation and mitigation strategies of future climate policies. Impact models for large scale flood risk assessment have made leaps forward in the past few years, thanks to the increased availability of high resolution climate projections and of information on local exposure and vulnerability to river floods. Yet, state-of-the-art flood impact models rely on a number of input data and techniques that can substantially influence their results. This work compares estimates of river flood risk in Europe from three recent case studies, assuming global warming scenarios of 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels. The assessment is based on comparing ensemble projections of expected damage and population affected at country level. Differences and common points between the three cases are shown, to point out main sources of uncertainty, strengths, and limitations. In addition, the multi-model comparison helps identify regions with the largest agreement on specific changes in flood risk. Results show that global warming is linked to substantial increase in flood risk over most countries in Central and Western Europe at all warming levels. In Eastern Europe, the average change in flood risk is smaller and the multi-model agreement is poorer.

  6. Use of Real-time Satellite Rainfall Information in a Global Flood Estimation System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adler, R. F.; Wu, H.; Tian, Y.

    2012-12-01

    The TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) is a merger of precipitation information from mainly passive microwave sensors on polar orbiting satellites. This information is cross-calibrated in terms of rainrate using data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) flying in an inclined orbit at 35°. A research quality analysis is produced a few months after observation time, but a real-time product is also generated within a few hours of observation. This real-time, or RT, product can be used to quickly diagnose heavy rain events over most of the globe. This rainfall information is also used as the key input into an experimental system, the Global Flood Monitoring System (GFMS), which produces real-time, quasi-global flood estimates. Images and output data are available for use by the community (http://oas.gsfc.nasa.gov/globalflood/). The method uses the 3-hr resolution composite rainfall analyses as input into a hydrological model that calculates water depth and streamflow at each grid (at 0.125 ° latitude-longitude) over the tropics and mid-latitudes. Flood detection and intensity estimates are based on water depth thresholds calculated from a 13-year retrospective run using the satellite rainfall and model. Examination of individual cases in real-time or retrospectively often indicates skill in detecting the occurrence of a flood event and a reasonable evolution of water depth (at the scale of the calculation) and downstream movement of high water levels. A recently published study evaluating calculated flood occurrence from the GFMS against a global flood event database is reviewed. The statistics indicate that flood detection results improve with longer duration (> 3 days) floods and that the statistics are impacted by the presence of large dams, which are not accounted for in the model calculations. Overall, for longer floods in basins without large dams, the Probability of Detection (POD) of floods is ~ 0.7, while the False Alarm Rate

  7. Assessing the value of the ATL13 inland water level product for the Global Flood Partnership

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumann, G.; Pappenberger, F.; Bates, P. D.; Neal, J. C.; Jasinski, M. F.

    2015-12-01

    This paper reports on the activities and first results of an our ICESat-2 Early Adopter (EA) project for inland water observations. Our team will assess the value of the ICESat-2 water level product using two flood model use cases, one over the California Bay Delta and one over the Niger Inland Delta. Application of the ALT13 product into routine operations will be ensured via an ALT13 database integrated into the pillar "Global Flood Service and Toolbox" (GFST) of the Global Flood Partnership (GFP). GFP is a cooperation framework between scientific organizations and flood disaster managers worldwide to develop flood observational and modelling infrastructure, leveraging on existing initiatives for better predicting and managing flood disaster impacts and flood risk globally. GFP is hosted as an Expert Working Group by the Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS). The objective of this EA project is to make the ICESat-2 water level data available to the international GFP community. The EA team believes that the ALT13 product, after successful demonstration of its value in model calibration/validation and monitoring of large floodplain inundation dynamics, should be made easily accessible to the GFP. The GFST will host data outputs and tools from different flood models and for different applications and regions. All these models can benefit from ALT13 if made available to GFP through GFST. Here, we will introduce both test cases and their model setups and report on first preliminary "capabilities" test runs with the Niger model and ICESat-1 as well as radar altimeter data. Based on our results, we will also reflect on expected capabilities and potential of the ICESat-2 mission for river observations.

  8. Sensitivity analyses of a global flood model in different geoclimatic regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moylan, C.; Neal, J. C.; Freer, J. E.; Pianosi, F.; Wagener, T.; Sampson, C. C.; Smith, A.

    2017-12-01

    Flood models producing global hazard maps now exist, although with significant variation in the modelled hazard extent. Besides explicit structural differences, reasons for this variation is unknown. Understanding the behaviour of these global flood models is necessary to determine how they can be further developed. Preliminary sensitivity analysis was performed using Morris method on the Bristol global flood model, which has 37 parameters, required to translate the remotely sensed data into input for the underlying hydrodynamic model. This number of parameters implies an excess of complexity for flood modelling and should ideally be mitigated. The analysis showed an order of magnitude difference in parameter sensitivities, when comparing total flooded extent. It also showed the most important parameters' influence to be highly interactive rather than just direct; there were surprises in expectation of which parameters are the most important. Despite these findings, conclusions about the model are limited due to the fixed geoclimatic features of the location analysed. Hence more locations with varied geoclimatic characteristics must be chosen, so the consistencies and deviations of parameter sensitivities across these features become quantifiable. Locations are selected using a novel sampling technique, which aggregates the input data of a domain into representative metrics of the geoclimatic features, hypothesised to correlate with one or more parameters. Combinations of these metrics are sampled across a range of geoclimatic areas, and the sensitivities found are correlated with the sampled metrics. From this work, we find the main influences on flood risk prediction at the global scale for the used model structure, which as a methodology is transferable to the other global flood models.

  9. Assessing uncertainty in SRTM elevations for global flood modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawker, L. P.; Rougier, J.; Neal, J. C.; Bates, P. D.

    2017-12-01

    The SRTM DEM is widely used as the topography input to flood models in data-sparse locations. Understanding spatial error in the SRTM product is crucial in constraining uncertainty about elevations and assessing the impact of these upon flood prediction. Assessment of SRTM error was carried out by Rodriguez et al (2006), but this did not explicitly quantify the spatial structure of vertical errors in the DEM, and nor did it distinguish between errors over different types of landscape. As a result, there is a lack of information about spatial structure of vertical errors of the SRTM in the landscape that matters most to flood models - the floodplain. Therefore, this study attempts this task by comparing SRTM, an error corrected SRTM product (The MERIT DEM of Yamazaki et al., 2017) and near truth LIDAR elevations for 3 deltaic floodplains (Mississippi, Po, Wax Lake) and a large lowland region (the Fens, UK). Using the error covariance function, calculated by comparing SRTM elevations to the near truth LIDAR, perturbations of the 90m SRTM DEM were generated, producing a catalogue of plausible DEMs. This allows modellers to simulate a suite of plausible DEMs at any aggregated block size above native SRTM resolution. Finally, the generated DEM's were input into a hydrodynamic model of the Mekong Delta, built using the LISFLOOD-FP hydrodynamic model, to assess how DEM error affects the hydrodynamics and inundation extent across the domain. The end product of this is an inundation map with the probability of each pixel being flooded based on the catalogue of DEMs. In a world of increasing computer power, but a lack of detailed datasets, this powerful approach can be used throughout natural hazard modelling to understand how errors in the SRTM DEM can impact the hazard assessment.

  10. Global flood risk response to large-scale land-ocean-atmospheric interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, P. J.; Dettinger, M. D.; Jongman, B.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.

    2012-12-01

    The economic consequences of flooding are huge, as exemplified by recent major floods in Thailand, Pakistan, and the Mississippi Basin. Moreover, research shows that economic flood risks are increasing around the world. Whilst much research is being carried out to assess how this may be related to socioeconomic development (increased exposure to floods) or climate change (increased hazard), the role of interannual climate variability caused by land-ocean-atmospheric interactions, is poorly understood at the global scale. To address these issues, we recently initiated a 4-year project to assess and map the impacts of large scale interannual climate variability on both flood risk (in terms of expected annual economic damages) and flood hazard at the global scale. In this contribution, we assess El Niño Southern Oscillation's (ENSO) impact on global flood risk, and discuss implications for key stakeholders. The research involves a model chain coupling the results of a hydrological model, inundation model, and flood damage model. In terms of risk, we simulate clear and significant differences in annual expected economic damage between El Niño (EN) years and non-EN years, and between La Niña (LN) and non-LN years. These are related to large-scale land-ocean atmospheric interactions, which force significant changes in flood hazard magnitudes. However, our analyses reveal asymmetrical results between ENSO modes. For example, whilst several basins in southern Africa have much higher annual floods in LN years than in neutral years, the opposite signal is less clear. We present seasonal composites of climatic and atmospheric variables to explain these differences. Moreover, we find strong correlations between ENSO indices and (simulated and observed) peak annual floods in rivers all around the world. In many regions, the strength of these relationships is greater than those between the ENSO indices and mean annual discharge. The application of these results to short and

  11. Declining vulnerability to river floods and the global benefits of adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jongman, Brenden; Winsemius, Hessel; Aerts, Jeroen; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Van Aalst, Maarten; Kron, Wolfgang; Ward, Philip

    2016-04-01

    The global impacts of river floods are substantial and rising. Effective adaptation to the increasing risks requires an in-depth understanding of the physical and socioeconomic drivers of risk. Whilst the modeling of flood hazard and exposure has improved greatly, compelling evidence on spatiotemporal patterns in vulnerability of societies around the world is lacking. Hence, the effects of vulnerability on global flood risk are not fully understood, and future projections of fatalities and losses available today are based on simplistic assumptions or do not include vulnerability. In this study, we show that trends and fluctuations in vulnerability to river floods around the world can be estimated by dynamic high-resolution modeling of flood hazard and exposure. We show that fatalities and losses as a share of exposed population and gross domestic product are decreasing with rising income. We also show that there is a tendency of convergence in vulnerability levels between low- and high-income countries. Based on these findings, we simulate future flood impacts per country using traditional assumptions of static vulnerability through time, but also using future assumptions on reduced vulnerability in the future. We show that future risk increases can be largely contained using effective disaster risk reduction strategies, including a reduction of vulnerability. The study was carried out using the global flood risk model, GLOFRIS, combined with high-resolution time-series maps of hazard and exposure at the global scale. Based on: Jongman et al., 2015. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, doi:10.1073/pnas.1414439112.

  12. Global river flood hazard maps: hydraulic modelling methods and appropriate uses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Townend, Samuel; Smith, Helen; Molloy, James

    2014-05-01

    Flood hazard is not well understood or documented in many parts of the world. Consequently, the (re-)insurance sector now needs to better understand where the potential for considerable river flooding aligns with significant exposure. For example, international manufacturing companies are often attracted to countries with emerging economies, meaning that events such as the 2011 Thailand floods have resulted in many multinational businesses with assets in these regions incurring large, unexpected losses. This contribution addresses and critically evaluates the hydraulic methods employed to develop a consistent global scale set of river flood hazard maps, used to fill the knowledge gap outlined above. The basis of the modelling approach is an innovative, bespoke 1D/2D hydraulic model (RFlow) which has been used to model a global river network of over 5.3 million kilometres. Estimated flood peaks at each of these model nodes are determined using an empirically based rainfall-runoff approach linking design rainfall to design river flood magnitudes. The hydraulic model is used to determine extents and depths of floodplain inundation following river bank overflow. From this, deterministic flood hazard maps are calculated for several design return periods between 20-years and 1,500-years. Firstly, we will discuss the rationale behind the appropriate hydraulic modelling methods and inputs chosen to produce a consistent global scaled river flood hazard map. This will highlight how a model designed to work with global datasets can be more favourable for hydraulic modelling at the global scale and why using innovative techniques customised for broad scale use are preferable to modifying existing hydraulic models. Similarly, the advantages and disadvantages of both 1D and 2D modelling will be explored and balanced against the time, computer and human resources available, particularly when using a Digital Surface Model at 30m resolution. Finally, we will suggest some

  13. First evaluation of the utility of GPM precipitation in global flood monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, H.; Yan, Y.; Gao, Z.

    2017-12-01

    The Global Flood Monitoring System (GFMS) has been developed and used to provide real-time flood detection and streamflow estimates over the last few years with significant success shown by validation against global flood event data sets and observed streamflow variations (Wu et al., 2014). It has become a tool for various national and international organizations to appraise flood conditions in various areas, including where rainfall and hydrology information is limited. The GFMS has been using the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) as its main rainfall input. Now, with the advent of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission there is an opportunity to significantly improve global flood monitoring and forecasting. GPM's Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) multi-satellite product is designed to take advantage of various technical advances in the field and combine that with an efficient processing system producing "early" (4 hrs) and "late" (12 hrs) products for operational use. Specifically, this study is focused on (1) understanding the difference between the new IMERG products and other existing satellite precipitation products, e.g., TMPA, CMORPH, and ground observations; (2) addressing the challenge in the usage of the IMERG for flood monitoring through hydrologic models, given that only a short period of precipitation data record has been accumulated since the lunch of GPM in 2014; and (3) comparing the statistics of flood simulation based on the DRIVE model with IMERG, TMPA, CMORPH etc. as precipitation inputs respectively. Derivation of a global threshold map is a necessary step to define flood events out of modelling results, which requires a relatively longer historic information. A set of sensitivity tests are conducted by adjusting IMERG's light, moderate, heavy rain to existing precipitation products with long-term records separately, to optimize the strategy of PDF matching. Other aspects are also examined

  14. An Improved Global Flood Forecasting System Using Satellite Rainfall Information and a Hydrological Model (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adler, R. F.; Wu, H.; Tian, Y.

    2013-12-01

    A real-time experimental system to estimate and forecast floods over the globe, the Global Flood Monitoring System (GFMS), has been significantly improved to provide flood detection, streamflow and inundation mapping information at higher resolution (as fine as 1 km) and nowcasts and forecasts (out to five days). Images and output data are available for use by the community with updates available every three hours (http://flood.umd.edu). The system uses satellite-based rainfall information, currently the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis [TMPA]), other satellite and conventional information and a newly-developed hydrological and routing combination model. The improved combined model, the Dominant river Routing Integrated with VIC Environment (DRIVE) system, is based on the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) land surface model (U. of Washington) and the Dominant River Tracing Routing (DRTR) method. Within the DRIVE system the surface hydrological calculations are carried out at 0.125° latitude-longitude resolution with routing, streamflow and other calculations done at that resolution and at 1km resolution. Flood detection and intensity estimates are based on water depth and streamflow thresholds calculated from a 15-year retrospective run using the satellite rainfall and model. This period is also used for testing and evaluation with results indicating improved streamflow estimation and flood detection statistics. The satellite rainfall data are integrated with global model NASA GEOS-5 Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) rainfall predictions (adjusted to the satellite data) to extend the flood calculations out to five days. Examples of results for recent flood events are presented along with validation statistics and comparison with other flood observations (e.g., inundation calculations vs. MODIS and/or SAR flood maps). The outlook for further development in this area in terms of increased utility for national and international disaster management

  15. Changing Global Patterns of Urban Exposure to Flood and Drought Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guneralp, B.; Guneralp, I.; Liu, Y.

    2014-12-01

    The studies that quantify the human and economic costs of increasing exposure of cities to various natural hazards consider climate change and increasing population and economic activity, but assume constant urban extent. Accurate estimates of the potential losses due to changing exposure of cities, however, require that we know where they will grow in the future. Here, we present the first-ever estimates of the changing exposure of urban infrastructure to floods and droughts due to urban land expansion from 2000 to 2030. Although the percent of land that is urban within the Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ) increases globally only slightly to 13% by 2030, the amount of urban land is predicted to increase 230% to 234,000 km2. In 2000, about 30% of global urban land (i.e., nearly 200,000 km2) was located in the high-frequency flood zones; by 2030, this will reach 40%, (i.e., over 700,000 km2). The emerging coastal metropolitan regions in Africa and Asia will be larger than those in the developed countries and thus will have larger areas exposed to flooding. The urban extent in drylands will increase nearly 300,000 km2, reaching almost 500,000 km2. Urban land exposed to both floods and droughts is expected to increase over 250%. There are significant geographical variations in the rates and magnitudes of urban expansion exposed to floods or droughts or both. Our findings show that even without factoring in the potential impacts from climate change, the extent of urban areas exposed to flood and drought hazards will increase, respectively, 2.7 and almost 2 times by 2030. Our global view on changing geographical patterns of urban exposure to flood and drought hazards can facilitate effective mitigation and adaptation against these hazards at multiple scales.

  16. Flood Inundation Modelling Under Uncertainty Using Globally and Freely Available Remote Sensing Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, K.; Di Baldassarre, G.; Giustarini, L.; Solomatine, D. P.

    2012-04-01

    The extreme consequences of recent catastrophic events have highlighted that flood risk prevention still needs to be improved to reduce human losses and economic damages, which have considerably increased worldwide in recent years. Flood risk management and long term floodplain planning are vital for living with floods, which is the currently proposed approach to cope with floods. To support the decision making processes, a significant issue is the availability of data to build appropriate and reliable models, from which the needed information could be obtained. The desirable data for model building, calibration and validation are often not sufficient or available. A unique opportunity is offered nowadays by globally available data which can be freely downloaded from internet. This might open new opportunities for filling the gap between available and needed data, in order to build reliable models and potentially lead to the development of global inundation models to produce floodplain maps for the entire globe. However, there remains the question of what is the real potential of those global remote sensing data, characterized by different accuracy, for global inundation monitoring and how to integrate them with inundation models. This research aims at contributing to understand whether the current globally and freely available remote sensing data (e.g. SRTM, SAR) can be actually used to appropriately support inundation modelling. In this study, the SRTM DEM is used for hydraulic model building, while ENVISAT-ASAR satellite imagery is used for model validation. To test the usefulness of these globally and freely available data, a model based on the high resolution LiDAR DEM and ground data (high water marks) is used as benchmark. The work is carried out on a data-rich test site: the River Alzette in the north of Luxembourg City. Uncertainties are estimated for both SRTM and LiDAR based models. Probabilistic flood inundation maps are produced under the framework of

  17. Disaster risk and poverty: assessing the global exposure of the poor to floods and droughts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winsemius, Hessel; Jongman, Brenden; Veldkamp, Ted; Hallegatte, Stéphane; Bangalore, Mook; Ward, Philip

    2015-04-01

    Poor people generally have a lower capacity to deal with the impacts of natural hazards. Yet, in several countries, low-income households have been shown to be disproportionately overrepresented in hazard-prone areas compared to households with higher income. Furthermore, the hazardous conditions under which poor households are exposed to now may become worse due to climate change with resulting increases in intensity and frequency of floods and droughts. To date, the relationship between poverty and natural hazard related disasters has only been explored on a case by case basis in a limited amount of countries. With the recent advances in the global spatial modeling of flood and drought hazard, it becomes feasible to study the relationship between poverty and natural hazards globally. In this presentation we present the most comprehensive analysis so far on the exposure of the global poor to floods and droughts under the current climatic conditions as well as under a range of future climate scenarios. We combine state-of-the-art global river flood and drought hazard models with detailed household asset and income datasets for over 50 countries world-wide, to analyse poverty-specific household exposure to current and future hazard levels.

  18. Global projections of river flood risk in a warmer world

    OpenAIRE

    ALFIERI LORENZO; BISSELINK BERNARD; DOTTORI FRANCESCO; NAUMANN GUSTAVO; DE ROO ARIE; SALAMON PETER; WYSER KLAUS; FEYEN LUC

    2016-01-01

    Rising global temperature has put increasing pressure on understanding the linkage between atmospheric warming and the occurrence of natural hazards. While the Paris Agreement has set the ambitious target to limiting global warming to 1.5˚C compared to pre-industrial levels, scientists are urged to explore scenarios for different warming thresholds and quantify ranges of socio-economic impact. In this work, we present a framework to estimate the economic damage and population affected by rive...

  19. Global and local scale flood discharge simulations in the Rhine River basin for flood risk reduction benchmarking in the Flagship Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gädeke, Anne; Gusyev, Maksym; Magome, Jun; Sugiura, Ai; Cullmann, Johannes; Takeuchi, Kuniyoshi

    2015-04-01

    The global flood risk assessment is prerequisite to set global measurable targets of post-Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) that mobilize international cooperation and national coordination towards disaster risk reduction (DRR) and requires the establishment of a uniform flood risk assessment methodology on various scales. To address these issues, the International Flood Initiative (IFI) has initiated a Flagship Project, which was launched in year 2013, to support flood risk reduction benchmarking at global, national and local levels. In the Flagship Project road map, it is planned to identify the original risk (1), to identify the reduced risk (2), and to facilitate the risk reduction actions (3). In order to achieve this goal at global, regional and local scales, international research collaboration is absolutely necessary involving domestic and international institutes, academia and research networks such as UNESCO International Centres. The joint collaboration by ICHARM and BfG was the first attempt that produced the first step (1a) results on the flood discharge estimates with inundation maps under way. As a result of this collaboration, we demonstrate the outcomes of the first step of the IFI Flagship Project to identify flood hazard in the Rhine river basin on the global and local scale. In our assessment, we utilized a distributed hydrological Block-wise TOP (BTOP) model on 20-km and 0.5-km scales with local precipitation and temperature input data between 1980 and 2004. We utilized existing 20-km BTOP model, which is applied globally, and constructed the local scale 0.5-km BTOP model for the Rhine River basin. For the BTOP model results, both calibrated 20-km and 0.5-km BTOP models had similar statistical performance and represented observed flood river discharges, epecially for 1993 and 1995 floods. From 20-km and 0.5-km BTOP simulation, the flood discharges of the selected return period were estimated using flood frequency analysis and were comparable to

  20. Quantifying invertebrate resistance to floods: a global-scale meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMullen, Laura E; Lytle, David A

    2012-12-01

    Floods are a key component of the ecology and management of riverine ecosystems around the globe, but it is not clear whether floods have predictable effects on organisms that can allow us to generalize across regions and continents. To address this, we conducted a global-scale meta-analysis to investigate effects of natural and managed floods on invertebrate resistance, the ability of invertebrates to survive flood events. We considered 994 studies for inclusion in the analysis, and after evaluation based on a priori criteria, narrowed our analysis to 41 studies spanning six of the seven continents. We used the natural-log-ratio of invertebrate abundance before and within 10 days after flood events because this measure of effect size can be directly converted to estimates of percent survival. We conducted categorical and continuous analyses that examined the contribution of environmental and study design variables to effect size heterogeneity, and examined differences in effect size among taxonomic groups. We found that invertebrate abundance was lowered by at least one-half after flood events. While natural vs. managed floods were similar in their effect, effect size differed among habitat and substrate types, with pools, sand, and boulders experiencing the strongest effect. Although sample sizes were not sufficient to examine all taxonomic groups, floods had a significant, negative effect on densities of Coleoptera, Eumalacostraca, Annelida, Ephemeroptera, Diptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera. Results from this study provide guidance for river flow regime prescriptions that will be applicable across continents and climate types, as well as baseline expectations for future empirical studies of freshwater disturbance.

  1. Global, Daily, Near Real-Time Satellite-based Flood Monitoring and Product Dissemination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slayback, D. A.; Policelli, F. S.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Tokay, M. M.; Smith, M. M.; Kettner, A. J.

    2013-12-01

    Flooding is the most destructive, frequent, and costly natural disaster faced by modern society, and is expected to increase in frequency and damage with climate change and population growth. Some of 2013's major floods have impacted the New York City region, the Midwest, Alberta, Australia, various parts of China, Thailand, Pakistan, and central Europe. The toll of these events, in financial costs, displacement of individuals, and deaths, is substantial and continues to rise as climate change generates more extreme weather events. When these events do occur, the disaster management community requires frequently updated and easily accessible information to better understand the extent of flooding and better coordinate response efforts. With funding from NASA's Applied Sciences program, we developed and are now operating a near real-time global flood mapping system to help provide critical flood extent information within 24-48 hours of events. The system applies a water detection algorithm to MODIS imagery received from the LANCE (Land Atmosphere Near real-time Capability for EOS) system at NASA Goddard within a few hours of satellite overpass. Using imagery from both the Terra (10:30 AM local time overpass) and Aqua (1:30 PM) platforms allows an initial daily assessment of flooding extent by late afternoon, and more robust assessments after accumulating cloud-free imagery over several days. Cloud cover is the primary limitation in detecting surface water from MODIS imagery. Other issues include the relatively coarse scale of the MODIS imagery (250 meters), the difficulty of detecting flood waters in areas with continuous canopy cover, confusion of shadow (cloud or terrain) with water, and accurately identifying detected water as flood as opposed to normal water extents. We have made progress on many of these issues, and are working to develop higher resolution flood detection using alternate sensors, including Landsat and various radar sensors. Although these

  2. Forecasting Global Rainfall for Points Using ECMWF's Global Ensemble and Its Applications in Flood Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pillosu, F. M.; Hewson, T.; Mazzetti, C.

    2017-12-01

    Prediction of local extreme rainfall has historically been the remit of nowcasting and high resolution limited area modelling, which represent only limited areas, may not be spatially accurate, give reasonable results only for limited lead times (cost-effective and physically-based statistical post-processing software ("ecPoint-Rainfall, ecPR", operational in 2017) that uses ECMWF Ensemble (ENS) output to deliver global probabilistic rainfall forecasts for points up to day 10. Firstly, ecPR applies a new notion of "remote calibration", which 1) allows us to replicate a multi-centennial training period using only one year of data, and 2) provides forecasts for anywhere in the world. Secondly, the software applies an understanding of how different rainfall generation mechanisms lead to different degrees of sub-grid variability in rainfall totals, and of where biases in the model can be improved upon. A long-term verification has shown that the post-processed rainfall has better reliability and resolution at every lead time if compared with ENS, and for large totals, ecPR outputs have the same skill at day 5 that the raw ENS has at day 1 (ROC area metric). ecPR could be used as input for hydrological models if its probabilistic output is modified accordingly to the inputs requirements for hydrological models. Indeed, ecPR does not provide information on where the highest total is likely to occur inside the gridbox, nor on the spatial distribution of rainfall values nearby. "Scenario forecasts" could be a solution. They are derived from locating the rainfall peak in sensitive positions (e.g. urban areas), and then redistributing the remaining quantities in the gridbox modifying traditional spatial correlation characterization methodologies (e.g. variogram analysis) in order to take account, for instance, of the type of rainfall forecast (stratiform, convective). Such an approach could be a turning point in the field of medium-range global real-time riverine flood

  3. Coping with Future Coastal Floods in Denmark—Advancing the Use of Global Frameworks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jebens, Martin; Sørensen, Carlo Sass

    2017-01-01

    The main aim of Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation is to lower the risk for the population and the society at large. Risk assessments constitute an important part of flood risk management and their quality is crucial to well-informed decision making. This requires an in......-depth understanding of the society and its vulnerabilities. Often attention to the flood risk and vulnerability in developed countries is absent due to the assumption that society can cope with disaster; For Denmark, a mixed methods’ research inquiry reveals that this is not always the case. In a critique of current...... Danish approaches to deal with Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation including coordination and planning, the paper proposes a new pathway for coping with the risks of coastal floods: Global frameworks like the Hyogo and Sendai tailored to suit Danish conditions may serve to mainstream...

  4. From global circulation to flood loss: Coupling models across the scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felder, Guido; Gomez-Navarro, Juan Jose; Bozhinova, Denica; Zischg, Andreas; Raible, Christoph C.; Ole, Roessler; Martius, Olivia; Weingartner, Rolf

    2017-04-01

    The prediction and the prevention of flood losses requires an extensive understanding of underlying meteorological, hydrological, hydraulic and damage processes. Coupled models help to improve the understanding of such underlying processes and therefore contribute the understanding of flood risk. Using such a modelling approach to determine potentially flood-affected areas and damages requires a complex coupling between several models operating at different spatial and temporal scales. Although the isolated parts of the single modelling components are well established and commonly used in the literature, a full coupling including a mesoscale meteorological model driven by a global circulation one, a hydrologic model, a hydrodynamic model and a flood impact and loss model has not been reported so far. In the present study, we tackle the application of such a coupled model chain in terms of computational resources, scale effects, and model performance. From a technical point of view, results show the general applicability of such a coupled model, as well as good model performance. From a practical point of view, such an approach enables the prediction of flood-induced damages, although some future challenges have been identified.

  5. Compound simulation of fluvial floods and storm surges in a global coupled river-coast flood model: Model development and its application to 2007 Cyclone Sidr in Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ikeuchi, Hiroaki; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Yamazaki, Dai; Muis, Sanne; Ward, Philip J.; Winsemius, Hessel C.; Verlaan, Martin; Kanae, Shinjiro

    2017-08-01

    Water-related disasters, such as fluvial floods and cyclonic storm surges, are a major concern in the world's mega-delta regions. Furthermore, the simultaneous occurrence of extreme discharges from rivers and storm surges could exacerbate flood risk, compared to when they occur separately. Hence, it is of great importance to assess the compound risks of fluvial and coastal floods at a large scale, including mega-deltas. However, most studies on compound fluvial and coastal flooding have been limited to relatively small scales, and global-scale or large-scale studies have not yet addressed both of them. The objectives of this study are twofold: to develop a global coupled river-coast flood model; and to conduct a simulation of compound fluvial flooding and storm surges in Asian mega-delta regions. A state-of-the-art global river routing model was modified to represent the influence of dynamic sea surface levels on river discharges and water levels. We conducted the experiments by coupling a river model with a global tide and surge reanalysis data set. Results show that water levels in deltas and estuaries are greatly affected by the interaction between river discharge, ocean tides and storm surges. The effects of storm surges on fluvial flooding are further examined from a regional perspective, focusing on the case of Cyclone Sidr in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta in 2007. Modeled results demonstrate that a >3 m storm surge propagated more than 200 km inland along rivers. We show that the performance of global river routing models can be improved by including sea level dynamics.

  6. Poster abstract: Water level estimation in urban ultrasonic/passive infrared flash flood sensor networks using supervised learning

    KAUST Repository

    Mousa, Mustafa

    2014-04-01

    This article describes a machine learning approach to water level estimation in a dual ultrasonic/passive infrared urban flood sensor system. We first show that an ultrasonic rangefinder alone is unable to accurately measure the level of water on a road due to thermal effects. Using additional passive infrared sensors, we show that ground temperature and local sensor temperature measurements are sufficient to correct the rangefinder readings and improve the flood detection performance. Since floods occur very rarely, we use a supervised learning approach to estimate the correction to the ultrasonic rangefinder caused by temperature fluctuations. Preliminary data shows that water level can be estimated with an absolute error of less than 2 cm. © 2014 IEEE.

  7. Enhancement of global flood damage assessments using building material based vulnerability curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Englhardt, Johanna; de Ruiter, Marleen; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

    2017-04-01

    This study discusses the development of an enhanced approach for flood damage and risk assessments using vulnerability curves that are based on building material information. The approach draws upon common practices in earthquake vulnerability assessments, and is an alternative for land-use or building occupancy approach in flood risk assessment models. The approach is of particular importance for studies where there is a large variation in building material, such as large scale studies or studies in developing countries. A case study of Ethiopia is used to demonstrate the impact of the different methodological approaches on direct damage assessments due to flooding. Generally, flood damage assessments use damage curves for different land-use or occupancy types (i.e. urban or residential and commercial classes). However, these categories do not necessarily relate directly to vulnerability of damage by flood waters. For this, the construction type and building material may be more important, as is used in earthquake risk assessments. For this study, we use building material classification data of the PAGER1 project to define new building material based vulnerability classes for flood damage. This approach will be compared to the widely applied land-use based vulnerability curves such as used by De Moel et al. (2011). The case of Ethiopia demonstrates and compares the feasibility of this novel flood vulnerability method on a country level which holds the potential to be scaled up to a global level. The study shows that flood vulnerability based on building material also allows for better differentiation between flood damage in urban and rural settings, opening doors to better link to poverty studies when such exposure data is available. Furthermore, this new approach paves the road to the enhancement of multi-risk assessments as the method enables the comparison of vulnerability across different natural hazard types that also use material-based vulnerability curves

  8. A Global Drought and Flood Catalogue for the past 100 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffield, J.; He, X.; Peng, L.; Pan, M.; Fisher, C. K.; Wood, E. F.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme hydrological events cause the most impacts of natural hazards globally, impacting on a wide range of sectors including, most prominently, agriculture, food security and water availability and quality, but also on energy production, forestry, health, transportation and fisheries. Understanding how floods and droughts intersect, and have changed in the past provides the basis for understanding current risk and how it may change in the future. To do this requires an understanding of the mechanisms associated with events and therefore their predictability, attribution of long-term changes in risk, and quantification of projections of changes in the future. Of key importance are long-term records of relevant variables so that risk can be quantified more accurately, given the growing acknowledgement that risk is not stationary under long-term climate variability and climate change. To address this, we develop a catalogue of drought and flood events based on land surface and hydrodynamic modeling, forced by a hybrid meteorological dataset that draws from the continuity and coverage of reanalysis, and satellite datasets, merged with global gauge databases. The meteorological dataset is corrected for temporal inhomogeneities, spurious trends and variable inter-dependencies to ensure long-term consistency, as well as realistic representation of short-term variability and extremes. The VIC land surface model is run for the past 100 years at 0.25-degree resolution for global land areas. The VIC runoff is then used to drive the CaMa-Flood hydrodynamic model to obtain information on flood inundation risk. The model outputs are compared to satellite based estimates of flood and drought conditions and the observational flood record. The data are analyzed in terms of the spatio-temporal characteristics of large-scale flood and drought events with a particular focus on characterizing the long-term variability in risk. Significant changes in risk occur on multi-decadal time

  9. What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Philip; Jongman, Brenden; Salamon, Peter; Simpson, Alanna; Winsemius, Hessel

    2015-04-01

    In recent years, several global scale flood risk models have become available. Within the scientific community these have been, and are being, used to assess and map the current levels of risk faced by countries and societies. Increasingly, they are also being used to assess how that level of risk may change in the future, under scenarios of climate change and/or socioeconomic development. More and more, these 'quick and not so dirty' methods are also being used in practice, for a large range of uses and applications, and by an increasing range of practitioners and decision makers. For example, assessments can be used by: International Financing Institutes for prioritising investments in the most promising natural disaster risk reduction measures and strategies; intra-national institutes in the monitoring of progress on risk reduction activities; the (re-)insurance industry in assessing their risk portfolios and potential changes in those portfolios under climate change; by multinational companies in assessing risks to their regional investments and supply chains; and by international aid organisations for improved resource planning. However, global scale flood risk models clearly have their limits, and therefore both modellers and users need to critically address the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?'. This contribution is intended to start a dialogue between model developers, users, and decision makers to better answer this question. We will provide a number of examples of how the GLOFRIS global flood risk model has recently been used in several practical applications, and share both the positive and negative insights gained through these experiences. We wish to discuss similar experiences with other groups of modelers, users, and decision-makers, in order to better understand and harness the potential of this new generation of models, understand the differences in model approaches followed and their impacts on applicability, and develop

  10. The potential of flood forecasting using a variable-resolution global Digital Terrain Model and flood extents from Synthetic Aperture Radar images.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Cecil Mason

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available A basic data requirement of a river flood inundation model is a Digital Terrain Model (DTM of the reach being studied. The scale at which modeling is required determines the accuracy required of the DTM. For modeling floods in urban areas, a high resolution DTM such as that produced by airborne LiDAR (Light Detection And Ranging is most useful, and large parts of many developed countries have now been mapped using LiDAR. In remoter areas, it is possible to model flooding on a larger scale using a lower resolution DTM, and in the near future the DTM of choice is likely to be that derived from the TanDEM-X Digital Elevation Model (DEM. A variable-resolution global DTM obtained by combining existing high and low resolution data sets would be useful for modeling flood water dynamics globally, at high resolution wherever possible and at lower resolution over larger rivers in remote areas. A further important data resource used in flood modeling is the flood extent, commonly derived from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR images. Flood extents become more useful if they are intersected with the DTM, when water level observations (WLOs at the flood boundary can be estimated at various points along the river reach.To illustrate the utility of such a global DTM, two examples of recent research involving WLOs at opposite ends of the spatial scale are discussed. The first requires high resolution spatial data, and involves the assimilation of WLOs from a real sequence of high resolution SAR images into a flood model to update the model state with observations over time, and to estimate river discharge and model parameters, including river bathymetry and friction. The results indicate the feasibility of such an Earth Observation-based flood forecasting system. The second example is at a larger scale, and uses SAR-derived WLOs to improve the lower-resolution TanDEM-X DEM in the area covered by the flood extents. The resulting reduction in random height error is

  11. Influence of ENSO on coastal flood hazard and exposure at the global-scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muis, S.; Haigh, I. D.; Guimarães Nobre, G.; Aerts, J.; Ward, P.

    2017-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant signal of interannual climate variability. The unusually warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific drives interannual variability in both mean and extreme sea levels, which in turn may influence the probabilities and impacts of coastal flooding. We assess the influence of ENSO on coastal flood hazard and exposure using daily timeseries from the Global Time and Surge Reanalysis (GTSR) dataset (Muis et al., 2016). As the GTSR timeseries do not include steric effects (i.e. density differences), we improve the GTSR timeseries by adding steric sea levels. Evaluation against observed sea levels shows that the including steric sea levels leads to a much better representation of the seasonal and interannual variability. We show that sea level anomalies occur during ENSO years with higher sea levels during La Niña in the South-Atlantic, Indian Ocean and the West Pacific, whereas sea levels are lower in the east Pacific. The pattern is generally inversed for El Niño. We also find an effect of ENSO in the number of people exposed to coastal flooding. Although the effect is minor at the global-scale, it may be important for flood risk management to consider at the national or sub national levels. Previous studies at the global-scale have used tide gauge observation to assess the influence of ENSO on extreme sea levels. The advantage of our approach over observations is that GTSR provides a consistent dataset with a full global coverage for the period 1979-2014. This allows us to assess ENSO's influence on sea level extremes anywhere in the world. Furthermore, it enables us to also calculate the impacts of extreme sea levels in terms of coastal flooding and exposed population. ReferencesMuis et al (2016) A global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels. Nature Communications.7:11969. doi:10.1038/ncomms11969.

  12. Global coastal flood risk in the 21th century - an assessment with the DIVA model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lincke, Daniel; Hinkel, Jochen; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Levermann, Anders; Perrette, Mahé; Nicholls, Robert J.

    2013-04-01

    In recent years, there has been a lot of interest in global estimates of coastal flood risk and adaptation costs associated with sea-level rise as these may be one of the most costly consequences of climate change. Uncertainties about these estimates have, however, hardly been explored and are usually not reported upon. This paper presents results from the ISI-MIP-project where the DIVA model was used for assessing coastal flood risk and adaptation costs by sampling some of the uncertainty dimensions for which we expect impacts to be most sensitive to. These include regional sea-level rise scenarios (with ice shield melt contributions) computed from four different GCMs using four different representative emission pathways (RCPs), changes in exposure under five shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs), and adaptation models assumed (i.e., constant dike heights, constant protection levels, protection levels increasing with wealth). We consider flood risk in terms of the expected annual damage to assets and the expected annual number of people flooded as well as adaptation costs in terms of dike capital costs and maintenance costs. Preliminary analysis suggests that adaptation costs and residual flood risks are most sensitive to the adaptation model used, which further suggests that future work needs to explore adaptation options and models in more detail. We also find that impacts are about as sensitive to socio-economic development as they are to sea-level rise. For adaptation, this suggests that steering future development away from the coast is an efficient strategy. Finally, local factors such as regional sea-level rise attained under different GCM patterns and relative sea-level rise due to land subsidence may be the factors risks are most sensitive to for some locations.

  13. An initial abstraction and constant loss model, and methods for estimating unit hydrographs, peak streamflows, and flood volumes for urban basins in Missouri

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huizinga, Richard J.

    2014-01-01

    Streamflow data, basin characteristics, and rainfall data from 39 streamflow-gaging stations for urban areas in and adjacent to Missouri were used by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Metropolitan Sewer District of St. Louis to develop an initial abstraction and constant loss model (a time-distributed basin-loss model) and a gamma unit hydrograph (GUH) for urban areas in Missouri. Study-specific methods to determine peak streamflow and flood volume for a given rainfall event also were developed.

  14. Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, Stephan; Kargel, Jeffrey S.; Huggel, Christian; Reynolds, John; Shugar, Dan H.; Betts, Richard A.; Emmer, Adam; Glasser, Neil; Haritashya, Umesh K.; Klimeš, Jan; Reinhardt, Liam; Schaub, Yvonne; Wiltshire, Andy; Regmi, Dhananjay; Vilímek, Vít

    2018-04-01

    Despite recent research identifying a clear anthropogenic impact on glacier recession, the effect of recent climate change on glacier-related hazards is at present unclear. Here we present the first global spatio-temporal assessment of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) focusing explicitly on lake drainage following moraine dam failure. These floods occur as mountain glaciers recede and downwaste. GLOFs can have an enormous impact on downstream communities and infrastructure. Our assessment of GLOFs associated with the rapid drainage of moraine-dammed lakes provides insights into the historical trends of GLOFs and their distributions under current and future global climate change. We observe a clear global increase in GLOF frequency and their regularity around 1930, which likely represents a lagged response to post-Little Ice Age warming. Notably, we also show that GLOF frequency and regularity - rather unexpectedly - have declined in recent decades even during a time of rapid glacier recession. Although previous studies have suggested that GLOFs will increase in response to climate warming and glacier recession, our global results demonstrate that this has not yet clearly happened. From an assessment of the timing of climate forcing, lag times in glacier recession, lake formation and moraine-dam failure, we predict increased GLOF frequencies during the next decades and into the 22nd century.

  15. Improving global flood risk awareness through collaborative research: Id-Lab

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weerts, A.; Zijderveld, A.; Cumiskey, L.; Buckman, L.; Verlaan, M.; Baart, F.

    2015-12-01

    Scientific and end-user collaboration on operational flood risk modelling and forecasting requires an environment where scientists and end-users can physically work together and demonstrate, enhance and learn about new tools, methods and models for forecasting and warning purposes. Therefore, Deltares has built a real-time demonstration, training and research infrastructure ('operational' room and ICT backend). This research infrastructure supports various functions like (1) Real time response and disaster management, (2) Training, (3) Collaborative Research, (4) Demonstration. The research infrastructure will be used for a mixture of these functions on a regular basis by Deltares and a multitude of both scientists as well as end users such as universities, research institutes, consultants, governments and aid agencies. This infrastructure facilitates emergency advice and support during international and national disasters caused by rainfall, tropical cyclones or tsunamis. It hosts research flood and storm surge forecasting systems for global/continental/regional scale. It facilitates training for emergency & disaster management (along with hosting forecasting system user trainings in for instance the forecasting platform Delft-FEWS) both internally and externally. The facility is expected to inspire and initiate creative innovations by bringing together different experts from various organizations. The room hosts interactive modelling developments, participatory workshops and stakeholder meetings. State of the art tools, models and software, being applied across the globe are available and on display within the facility. We will present the Id-Lab in detail and we will put particular focus on the global operational forecasting systems GLOFFIS (Global Flood Forecasting Information System) and GLOSSIS (Global Storm Surge Information System).

  16. High resolution global flood hazard map from physically-based hydrologic and hydraulic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Begnudelli, L.; Kaheil, Y.; McCollum, J.

    2017-12-01

    The global flood map published online at http://www.fmglobal.com/research-and-resources/global-flood-map at 90m resolution is being used worldwide to understand flood risk exposure, exercise certain measures of mitigation, and/or transfer the residual risk financially through flood insurance programs. The modeling system is based on a physically-based hydrologic model to simulate river discharges, and 2D shallow-water hydrodynamic model to simulate inundation. The model can be applied to large-scale flood hazard mapping thanks to several solutions that maximize its efficiency and the use of parallel computing. The hydrologic component of the modeling system is the Hillslope River Routing (HRR) hydrologic model. HRR simulates hydrological processes using a Green-Ampt parameterization, and is calibrated against observed discharge data from several publicly-available datasets. For inundation mapping, we use a 2D Finite-Volume Shallow-Water model with wetting/drying. We introduce here a grid Up-Scaling Technique (UST) for hydraulic modeling to perform simulations at higher resolution at global scale with relatively short computational times. A 30m SRTM is now available worldwide along with higher accuracy and/or resolution local Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) in many countries and regions. UST consists of aggregating computational cells, thus forming a coarser grid, while retaining the topographic information from the original full-resolution mesh. The full-resolution topography is used for building relationships between volume and free surface elevation inside cells and computing inter-cell fluxes. This approach almost achieves computational speed typical of the coarse grids while preserving, to a significant extent, the accuracy offered by the much higher resolution available DEM. The simulations are carried out along each river of the network by forcing the hydraulic model with the streamflow hydrographs generated by HRR. Hydrographs are scaled so that the peak

  17. Enhancing Community Based Early Warning Systems in Nepal with Flood Forecasting Using Local and Global Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugar, Sumit; Smith, Paul; Parajuli, Binod; Khanal, Sonu; Brown, Sarah; Gautam, Dilip; Bhandari, Dinanath; Gurung, Gehendra; Shakya, Puja; Kharbuja, RamGopal; Uprety, Madhab

    2017-04-01

    Operationalising effective Flood Early Warning Systems (EWS) in developing countries like Nepal poses numerous challenges, with complex topography and geology, sparse network of river and rainfall gauging stations and diverse socio-economic conditions. Despite these challenges, simple real-time monitoring based EWSs have been in place for the past decade. A key constraint of these simple systems is the very limited lead time for response - as little as 2-3 hours, especially for rivers originating from steep mountainous catchments. Efforts to increase lead time for early warning are focusing on imbedding forecasts into the existing early warning systems. In 2016, the Nepal Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) piloted an operational Probabilistic Flood Forecasting Model in major river basins across Nepal. This comprised a low data approach to forecast water levels, developed jointly through a research/practitioner partnership with Lancaster University and WaterNumbers (UK) and the International NGO Practical Action. Using Data-Based Mechanistic Modelling (DBM) techniques, the model assimilated rainfall and water levels to generate localised hourly flood predictions, which are presented as probabilistic forecasts, increasing lead times from 2-3 hours to 7-8 hours. The Nepal DHM has simultaneously started utilizing forecasts from the Global Flood Awareness System (GLoFAS) that provides streamflow predictions at the global scale based upon distributed hydrological simulations using numerical ensemble weather forecasts from the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). The aforementioned global and local models have already affected the approach to early warning in Nepal, being operational during the 2016 monsoon in the West Rapti basin in Western Nepal. On 24 July 2016, GLoFAS hydrological forecasts for the West Rapti indicated a sharp rise in river discharge above 1500 m3/sec (equivalent to the river warning level at 5 meters) with 53

  18. Flood modelling with global precipitation measurement (GPM) satellite rainfall data: a case study of Dehradun, Uttarakhand, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sai Krishna, V. V.; Dikshit, Anil Kumar; Pandey, Kamal

    2016-05-01

    Urban expansion, water bodies and climate change are inextricably linked with each other. The macro and micro level climate changes are leading to extreme precipitation events which have severe consequences on flooding in urban areas. Flood simulations shall be helpful in demarcation of flooded areas and effective flood planning and preparedness. The temporal availability of satellite rainfall data at varying spatial scale of 0.10 to 0.50 is helpful in near real time flood simulations. The present research aims at analysing stream flow and runoff to monitor flood condition using satellite rainfall data in a hydrologic model. The satellite rainfall data used in the research was NASA's Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG), which is available at 30 minutes temporal resolution. Landsat data was used for mapping the water bodies in the study area. Land use land cover (LULC) data was prepared using Landsat 8 data with maximum likelihood technique that was provided as an input to the HEC-HMS hydrological model. The research was applied to one of the urbanized cities of India, viz. Dehradun, which is the capital of Uttarakhand State. The research helped in identifying the flood vulnerability at the basin level on the basis of the runoff and various socio economic parameters using multi criteria analysis.

  19. Characterizing Global Flood Wave Travel Times to Optimize the Utility of Near Real-Time Satellite Remote Sensing Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, G. H.; David, C. H.; Andreadis, K. M.; Emery, C. M.; Famiglietti, J. S.

    2017-12-01

    Earth observing satellites provide valuable near real-time (NRT) information about flood occurrence and magnitude worldwide. This NRT information can be used in early flood warning systems and other flood management applications to save lives and mitigate flood damage. However, these NRT products are only useful to early flood warning systems if they are quickly made available, with sufficient time for flood mitigation actions to be implemented. More specifically, NRT data latency, or the time period between the satellite observation and when the user has access to the information, must be less than the time it takes a flood to travel from the flood observation location to a given downstream point of interest. Yet the paradigm that "lower latency is always better" may not necessarily hold true in river systems due to tradeoffs between data latency and data quality. Further, the existence of statistical breaks in the global distribution of flood wave travel time (i.e. a jagged statistical distribution) would represent preferable latencies for river-observation NRT remote sensing products. Here we present a global analysis of flood wave velocity (i.e. flow celerity) and travel time. We apply a simple kinematic wave model to a global hydrography dataset and calculate flow wave celerity and travel time during bankfull flow conditions. Bankfull flow corresponds to the condition of maximum celerity and thus we present the "worst-case scenario" minimum flow wave travel time. We conduct a similar analysis with respect to the time it takes flood waves to reach the next downstream city, as well as the next downstream reservoir. Finally, we conduct these same analyses, but with regards to the technical capabilities of the planned Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission, which is anticipated to provide waterbody elevation and extent measurements at an unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution. We validate these results with discharge records from paired

  20. Climate-Related Hazards: A Method for Global Assessment of Urban and Rural Population Exposure to Cyclones, Droughts, and Floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christenson, Elizabeth; Elliott, Mark; Banerjee, Ovik; Hamrick, Laura; Bartram, Jamie

    2014-01-01

    Global climate change (GCC) has led to increased focus on the occurrence of, and preparation for, climate-related extremes and hazards. Population exposure, the relative likelihood that a person in a given location was exposed to a given hazard event(s) in a given period of time, was the outcome for this analysis. Our objectives were to develop a method for estimating the population exposure at the country level to the climate-related hazards cyclone, drought, and flood; develop a method that readily allows the addition of better datasets to an automated model; differentiate population exposure of urban and rural populations; and calculate and present the results of exposure scores and ranking of countries based on the country-wide, urban, and rural population exposures to cyclone, drought, and flood. Gridded global datasets on cyclone, drought and flood occurrence as well as population density were combined and analysis was carried out using ArcGIS. Results presented include global maps of ranked country-level population exposure to cyclone, drought, flood and multiple hazards. Analyses by geography and human development index (HDI) are also included. The results and analyses of this exposure assessment have implications for country-level adaptation. It can also be used to help prioritize aid decisions and allocation of adaptation resources between countries and within a country. This model is designed to allow flexibility in applying cyclone, drought and flood exposure to a range of outcomes and adaptation measures. PMID:24566046

  1. Climate-related hazards: a method for global assessment of urban and rural population exposure to cyclones, droughts, and floods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christenson, Elizabeth; Elliott, Mark; Banerjee, Ovik; Hamrick, Laura; Bartram, Jamie

    2014-02-21

    Global climate change (GCC) has led to increased focus on the occurrence of, and preparation for, climate-related extremes and hazards. Population exposure, the relative likelihood that a person in a given location was exposed to a given hazard event(s) in a given period of time, was the outcome for this analysis. Our objectives were to develop a method for estimating the population exposure at the country level to the climate-related hazards cyclone, drought, and flood; develop a method that readily allows the addition of better datasets to an automated model; differentiate population exposure of urban and rural populations; and calculate and present the results of exposure scores and ranking of countries based on the country-wide, urban, and rural population exposures to cyclone, drought, and flood. Gridded global datasets on cyclone, drought and flood occurrence as well as population density were combined and analysis was carried out using ArcGIS. Results presented include global maps of ranked country-level population exposure to cyclone, drought, flood and multiple hazards. Analyses by geography and human development index (HDI) are also included. The results and analyses of this exposure assessment have implications for country-level adaptation. It can also be used to help prioritize aid decisions and allocation of adaptation resources between countries and within a country. This model is designed to allow flexibility in applying cyclone, drought and flood exposure to a range of outcomes and adaptation measures.

  2. Rapid Global River Flood Risk Assessment under Climate and Socioeconomic Scenarios: An Extreme Case of Eurasian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwak, Young-joo; Magome, Jun; Hasegawa, Akira; Iwami, Yoichi

    2017-04-01

    Causing widespread devastation with massive economic damage and loss of human lives, flood disasters hamper economic growth and accelerate poverty particularly in developing countries. Globally, this trend will likely continue due to increase in flood magnitude and lack of preparedness for extreme events. In line with risk reduction efforts since the early 21st century, the monitors and governors of global river floods should pay attention to international scientific and policy communities for support to facilitate evidence-based policy making with a special interest in long-term changes due to climate change and socio-economic effects. Although advanced hydrological inundation models and risk models have been developed to reveal flood risk, hazard, exposure, and vulnerability at a river basin, it is obviously hard to identify the distribution and locations of continent-level flood risk based on national-level data. Therefore, we propose a methodological possibility for rapid global flood risk assessment with the results from its application to the two periods, i.e., Present (from 1980 to 2004) and Future (from 2075 to 2099). The method is particularly designed to effectively simplify complexities of a hazard area by calculating the differential inundation depth using GFID2M (global flood inundation depth 2-dimension model), despite low data availability. In this research, we addressed the question of which parts in the Eurasian region (8E to 180E, 0N to 60N) can be found as high-risk areas in terms of exposed population and economy in case of a 50-year return period flood. Economic losses were estimated according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenario, and the flood scale was defined using the annual maximum daily river discharge under the extreme conditions of climate change simulated with MRI-AGCM3.2S based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5) emissions scenario. As a preliminary result, the total potential economic loss in the

  3. Projections of future floods and hydrological droughts in Europe under a +2°C global warming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roudier, Philippe; Andersson, Jafet C.M.; Donnelly, Chantal; Feyen, Luc; Greuell, Wouter; Ludwig, Fulco

    2016-01-01

    We present an assessment of the impacts of a +2°C global warming on extreme floods and hydrological droughts (1 in 10 and 1 in 100 year events) in Europe using eleven bias-corrected climate model simulations from CORDEX Europe and three hydrological models. The results show quite contrasted results

  4. Flood risk and adaptation strategies under climate change and urban expansion: A probabilistic analysis using global data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Muis, S.; Güneralp, B.; Jongman, B.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Ward, P.J.

    2015-01-01

    An accurate understanding of flood risk and its drivers is crucial for effective risk management. Detailed risk projections, including uncertainties, are however rarely available, particularly in developing countries. This paper presents a method that integrates recent advances in global-scale

  5. The first IGAC scientific conference: global atmospheric-biospheric chemistry. Book of abstracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-04-01

    Various global/transfrontier air pollution problems are described. The causes of these problems are presented. The impact on ecology and biosphere are discussed. Special attention is given to the greenhouse causing agents

  6. Flood risk and adaptation strategies under climate change and urban expansion: A probabilistic analysis using global data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muis, Sanne; Güneralp, Burak; Jongman, Brenden; Aerts, Jeroen C J H; Ward, Philip J

    2015-12-15

    An accurate understanding of flood risk and its drivers is crucial for effective risk management. Detailed risk projections, including uncertainties, are however rarely available, particularly in developing countries. This paper presents a method that integrates recent advances in global-scale modeling of flood hazard and land change, which enables the probabilistic analysis of future trends in national-scale flood risk. We demonstrate its application to Indonesia. We develop 1000 spatially-explicit projections of urban expansion from 2000 to 2030 that account for uncertainty associated with population and economic growth projections, as well as uncertainty in where urban land change may occur. The projections show that the urban extent increases by 215%-357% (5th and 95th percentiles). Urban expansion is particularly rapid on Java, which accounts for 79% of the national increase. From 2000 to 2030, increases in exposure will elevate flood risk by, on average, 76% and 120% for river and coastal floods. While sea level rise will further increase the exposure-induced trend by 19%-37%, the response of river floods to climate change is highly uncertain. However, as urban expansion is the main driver of future risk, the implementation of adaptation measures is increasingly urgent, regardless of the wide uncertainty in climate projections. Using probabilistic urban projections, we show that spatial planning can be a very effective adaptation strategy. Our study emphasizes that global data can be used successfully for probabilistic risk assessment in data-scarce countries. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. MaizeGDB: Global support for maize research through open access information [abstract

    Science.gov (United States)

    MaizeGDB is the open-access global repository for maize genetic and genomic information – from single genes that determine nutritional quality to whole genome-scale data for complex traits including yield and drought tolerance. The data and tools at MaizeGDB enable researchers from Ethiopia to Ghan...

  8. Information Exchange in Global Logistics Chains : An application for Model-based Auditing (abstract)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veenstra, A.W.; Hulstijn, J.; Christiaanse, R.; Tan, Y.

    2013-01-01

    An integrated data pipeline has been proposed to meet requirements for supply chain visibility and control. How can data integration be used for risk assessment, monitoring and control in global supply chains? We argue that concepts from model-based auditing can be used to model the ‘ideal’ flow of

  9. ANZSEE Biennial Conference Abstracts: Thriving through transformation: Local to global sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miriam Verbeek

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available 2015 ANZSEE Biennial Conference 2015 The conference themes centred on ideas for transforming to a sustainable human existence at all geographical scales, particularly at the local, regional, and remote scales, but also at the national and global scales: A. Place-based perspectives on sustainability & transformation B. Institutions for resilience & transformation C. Economics of equity & distribution in transformation D. Making the marginal mainstream: expanding horizons Special sessions: Indigenous Wellbeing; Wilderness; & Local Government

  10. Multi-model ensemble projections of European river floods and high flows at 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees global warming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thober, Stephan; Kumar, Rohini; Wanders, Niko|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/364253940; Marx, Andreas; Pan, Ming; Rakovec, Oldrich; Samaniego, Luis; Sheffield, Justin; Wood, Eric F.; Zink, Matthias

    2018-01-01

    Severe river floods often result in huge economic losses and fatalities. Since 1980, almost 1500 such events have been reported in Europe. This study investigates climate change impacts on European floods under 1.5, 2, and 3 K global warming. The impacts are assessed employing a multi-model ensemble

  11. Strengthening global practices for protecting nuclear material (NUMAT). Book of Abstracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steinhaeusler, F.; Heissl, C.

    2002-08-01

    The International Conference on Physical Protection 'Strengthening Global Practices for Protecting Nuclear Material' was organized by the Institute of Physics and Biophysics, Salzburg University in cooperation with/supported by the European Commission, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, European Forum of the Stanford University's Institute for International Studies and Austria Institute for European Security. Its purpose was fostering exchange of information on the policy and technical aspects require to ensure the security of nuclear material around the world. There is a general concern that the international community needs to establish effective measures to counter theft, sabotage, and other illicit uses of nuclear fissile and other radioactive materials. The main subjects addressed by this conference were: a) global and local threat development and 'design basis'; b) standards for physical protection (PP), its adequacy and future needs; c) national practices in PP of nuclear materials (how to strengthen national security culture?); d) current R and D in security and detection technologies (identification of focus points for future R and D); e) programmes to aid in training, design, and implementation of physical protection systems (how to improve efficiency and assure sustainability of assistance programmes?). (nevyjel)

  12. BALWOIS: Abstracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morell, Morell; Todorovik, Olivija; Dimitrov, Dobri

    2004-01-01

    anthropogenic pressures and international shared water. Here are the 320 abstracts proposed by authors and accepted by the Scientific Committee. More than 200 papers are presented during the Conference on 8 topics related to Hydrology, Climatology and Hydro biology: - Climate and Environment; - Hydrological regimes and water balances; - Droughts and Floods; -Integrated Water Resources Management; -Water bodies Protection and Eco hydrology; -Lakes; -Information Systems for decision support; -Hydrological modelling. Papers relevant to INIS are indexed separately

  13. WiP abstract: Optimal multi-agent path planning for fast inverse modeling in UAV-based flood sensing applications

    KAUST Repository

    Abdelkader, Mohamed

    2014-04-01

    Floods are one of the most commonly occurring natural disasters, and caused more than 120,000 fatalities in the world between 1991 and 2005. Most of these casualties are caused by the lack of a reliable real-time flash flood monitoring system. Given the area to monitor, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) appear as the most promising solutions for this task. © 2014 IEEE.

  14. Global sea-level rise is recognised, but flooding from anthropogenic land subsidence is ignored around northern Manila Bay, Philippines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodolfo, Kelvin S; Siringan, Fernando P

    2006-03-01

    Land subsidence resulting from excessive extraction of groundwater is particularly acute in East Asian countries. Some Philippine government sectors have begun to recognise that the sea-level rise of one to three millimetres per year due to global warming is a cause of worsening floods around Manila Bay, but are oblivious to, or ignore, the principal reason: excessive groundwater extraction is lowering the land surface by several centimetres to more than a decimetre per year. Such ignorance allows the government to treat flooding as a lesser problem that can be mitigated through large infrastructural projects that are both ineffective and vulnerable to corruption. Money would be better spent on preventing the subsidence by reducing groundwater pumping and moderating population growth and land use, but these approaches are politically and psychologically unacceptable. Even if groundwater use is greatly reduced and enlightened land-use practices are initiated, natural deltaic subsidence and global sea-level rise will continue to aggravate flooding, although at substantially lower rates.

  15. Floods and Flash Flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Floods and flash flooding Now is the time to determine your area’s flood risk. If you are not sure whether you ... If you are in a floodplain, consider buying flood insurance. Do not drive around barricades. If your ...

  16. Real-Time Global Flood Estimation Using Satellite-Based Precipitation and a Coupled Land Surface and Routing Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Huan; Adler, Robert F.; Tian, Yudong; Huffman, George J.; Li, Hongyi; Wang, JianJian

    2014-01-01

    A widely used land surface model, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, is coupled with a newly developed hierarchical dominant river tracing-based runoff-routing model to form the Dominant river tracing-Routing Integrated with VIC Environment (DRIVE) model, which serves as the new core of the real-time Global Flood Monitoring System (GFMS). The GFMS uses real-time satellite-based precipitation to derive flood monitoring parameters for the latitude band 50 deg. N - 50 deg. S at relatively high spatial (approximately 12 km) and temporal (3 hourly) resolution. Examples of model results for recent flood events are computed using the real-time GFMS (http://flood.umd.edu). To evaluate the accuracy of the new GFMS, the DRIVE model is run retrospectively for 15 years using both research-quality and real-time satellite precipitation products. Evaluation results are slightly better for the research-quality input and significantly better for longer duration events (3 day events versus 1 day events). Basins with fewer dams tend to provide lower false alarm ratios. For events longer than three days in areas with few dams, the probability of detection is approximately 0.9 and the false alarm ratio is approximately 0.6. In general, these statistical results are better than those of the previous system. Streamflow was evaluated at 1121 river gauges across the quasi-global domain. Validation using real-time precipitation across the tropics (30 deg. S - 30 deg. N) gives positive daily Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficients for 107 out of 375 (28%) stations with a mean of 0.19 and 51% of the same gauges at monthly scale with a mean of 0.33. There were poorer results in higher latitudes, probably due to larger errors in the satellite precipitation input.

  17. Hurricanes Harvey and Irma - High-Resolution Flood Mapping and Monitoring from Sentinel SAR with the Depolarization Reduction Algorithm for Global Observations of InundatioN (DRAGON)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nghiem, S. V.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Nguyen, D. T.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricane Harvey inflicted historical catastrophic flooding across extensive regions around Houston and southeast Texas after making landfall on 25 August 2017. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) requested urgent supports for flood mapping and monitoring in an emergency response to the extreme flood situation. An innovative satellite remote sensing method, called the Depolarization Reduction Algorithm for Global Observations of inundatioN (DRAGON), has been developed and implemented for use with Sentinel synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite data at a resolution of 10 meters to identify, map, and monitor inundation including pre-existing water bodies and newly flooded areas. Results from this new method are hydrologically consistent and have been verified with known surface waters (e.g., coastal ocean, rivers, lakes, reservoirs, etc.), with clear-sky high-resolution WorldView images (where waves can be seen on surface water in inundated areas within a small spatial coverage), and with other flood maps from the consortium of Global Flood Partnership derived from multiple satellite datasets (including clear-sky Landsat and MODIS at lower resolutions). Figure 1 is a high-resolution (4K UHD) image of a composite inundation map for the region around Rosharon (in Brazoria County, south of Houston, Texas). This composite inundation map reveals extensive flooding on 29 August 2017 (four days after Hurricane Harvey made landfall), and the inundation was still persistent in most of the west and south of Rosharon one week later (5 September 2017) while flooding was reduced in the east of Rosharon. Hurricane Irma brought flooding to a number of areas in Florida. As of 10 September 2017, Sentinel SAR flood maps reveal inundation in the Florida Panhandle and over lowland surfaces on several islands in the Florida Keys. However, Sentinel SAR results indicate that flooding along the Florida coast was not extreme despite Irma was a Category-5 hurricane that might

  18. The influence of climate change on flood risks in France ­- first estimates and uncertainty analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Dumas , Patrice; Hallegatte , Sréphane; Quintana-Seguí , Pere; Martin , Eric

    2013-01-01

    International audience; Abstract. This paper proposes a methodology to project the possible evolution of river flood damages due to climate change, and applies it to mainland France. Its main contributions are (i) to demonstrate a methodology to investigate the full causal chain from global climate change to local economic flood losses; (ii) to show that future flood losses may change in a very significant manner over France; (iii) to show that a very large uncertainty arises from the climate...

  19. Combined impact of global river-floods and tropical cyclones on long-term economic growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geiger, Tobias; Piontek, Franziska; Frieler, Katja

    2016-04-01

    Worldwide direct economic losses associated with the impact of river-floods and tropical cyclones have seen a rapid increase over time. Their nominal impact is projected to rise even further as the exposed population grows, per capita income increases, and anthropogenic climate change manifests. Beyond the immediate damage of each event, indirect economic impacts can affect growth trajectories of countries as a whole for many years after the disaster. Whether the cumulated indirect effects stimulate or hinder economic growth in the long-run is so far undecided as previous studies find contradicting results depending on the analysed hazard and the underlying methodology. We here combine two types of the costliest meteorological disasters worldwide in order to gain certainty on their joint impact in a comprehensive way. Relative affected population by country and year is determined based on historical tropical cyclone tracks (IBTrACS) and historical simulations of river-flood return periods forced by observed weather and used as a predictor for the disaster's impact on national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) time series. Controlling for various non-disaster related effects, we find a cumulated GDP deficit that remains robust for more than a decade after the event.

  20. Relating climate change policy to poverty policy: assessing the global exposure of the poor to floods and droughts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winsemius, Hessel; Jongman, Brenden; Veldkamp, Ted; Hallegatte, Stéphane; Bangalore, Mook; Ward, Philip

    2016-04-01

    Prior to the COP21 conference in Paris this year, the World Bank published a report called "Shockwaves - Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty". The report flagged that ending poverty and stabilizing climate change should be jointly tackled and that without a good joint policy, a further 100 million people could become trapped in poverty by 2050. As part of the "Shockwaves" report, we investigated whether low-income households are disproportionately overrepresented in hazard-prone areas compared to households with higher income. Furthermore, the hazardous conditions under which poor households are exposed to now may become worse due to climate change with resulting increases in intensity and frequency of floods and droughts. We also show how the amount of affected people to these natural hazards change in the future if nothing is done. We use recent advances in the global spatial modeling of flood and drought hazard and a large sample of household surveys containing asset and income data to explore the relationships.

  1. Flooding Model as the Analysis of the Sea Level Increase as a Result of Global Warming in Coastal Area in Lampung

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agung Kurniawan

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The melting of ice layers, as a direct impact on global warming, is indicated from a lesser thickness of ice layers is specifically causing an increase on the sea level. Lampung, as a province that has an ecosistem of regional coast, can be estimated to submerge. Flood modelling can be done to know the estimated flood range. The model of the flooded region is taken from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission(SRTM data, which is nomalized to get the visualisation of Digital Elevation Model (DEM. The purpose of this research is to know the estimated region of provincial coast of Lampung that is going to be flooded because of the raising of sea surface. This research uses flood inundation technique that uses one of the GIS mapping software. The result can be used as consideration to achieve policy in the building of regional coast. The regions that are flooded based on the scenario of the raising of two and three meter surface sea level are East Lampung Regency, West Lampung Regency, South Lampung Regency, Tanggamus Regency, Pesawaran Regency, and Bandar Lampung.

  2. Internationally coordinated multi-mission planning is now critical to sustain the space-based rainfall observations needed for managing floods globally

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reed, Patrick M; Herman, Jonathan D; Chaney, Nathaniel W; Wood, Eric F; Ferringer, Matthew P

    2015-01-01

    At present 4 of 10 dedicated rainfall observing satellite systems have exceeded their design life, some by more than a decade. Here, we show operational implications for flood management of a ‘collapse’ of space-based rainfall observing infrastructure as well as the high-value opportunities for a globally coordinated portfolio of satellite missions and data services. Results show that the current portfolio of rainfall missions fails to meet operational data needs for flood management, even when assuming a perfectly coordinated data product from all current rainfall-focused missions (i.e., the full portfolio). In the full portfolio, satellite-based rainfall data deficits vary across the globe and may preclude climate adaptation in locations vulnerable to increasing flood risks. Moreover, removing satellites that are currently beyond their design life (i.e., the reduced portfolio) dramatically increases data deficits globally and could cause entire high intensity flood events to be unobserved. Recovery from the reduced portfolio is possible with internationally coordinated replenishment of as few as 2 of the 4 satellite systems beyond their design life, yielding rainfall data coverages that outperform the current full portfolio (i.e., an optimized portfolio of eight satellites can outperform ten satellites). This work demonstrates the potential for internationally coordinated satellite replenishment and data services to substantially enhance the cost-effectiveness, sustainability and operational value of space-based rainfall observations in managing evolving flood risks. (letter)

  3. Assessment of the Suitability of a Global Hydrodynamic Model in Simulating a Regional-scale Extreme Flood at Finer Spatial Resolutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mateo, C. M. R.; Yamazaki, D.; Kim, H.; Champathong, A.; Oki, T.

    2015-12-01

    Global river models (GRMs) are elemental for large-scale predictions and impact analyses. However, they have limited capability in providing accurate flood information at fine resolution for practical purposes. Hyperresolution (~1km resolution) modelling is believed to improve the representation of topographical constraints, which consequently result to better predictions of surface water flows and flood inundation at regional to global scales. While numerous studies have shown that finer resolutions improve the predictions of catchment-scale floods using local-scale hydrodynamic models, the impact of finer spatial resolution on predictions of large-scale floods using GRMs is rarely examined. In this study, we assessed the suitability of a state-of-the-art hydrodynamic GRM, CaMa-Flood, in the hyperresolution simulation of a regional-scale flood. The impacts of finer spatial resolution and representation of sub-grid processes on simulating the 2011 immense flooding in Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand was investigated. River maps ranging from 30-arcsecond (~1km) to 5-arcminute (~10km) spatial resolutions were generated from 90m resolution HydroSHEDS maps and SRTM3 DEM. Simulations were executed in each spatial resolution with the new multi-directional downstream connectivity (MDC) scheme in CaMa-Flood turned on and off. While the predictive capability of the model slightly improved with finer spatial resolution when MDC scheme is turned on, it significantly declined when MDC scheme is turned off; bias increased by 35% and NSE-coefficient decreased by 60%. These findings indicate that GRMs which assume single-downstream-grid flows are not suitable for hyperresolution modelling because of their limited capability to realistically represent floodplain connectivity. When simulating large-scale floods, MDC scheme is necessary for the following functions: provide additional storage for ovehrbank flows, enhance connectivity between floodplains which allow more realistic

  4. Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding--a global assessment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbara Neumann

    Full Text Available Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential

  5. Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding--a global assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumann, Barbara; Vafeidis, Athanasios T; Zimmermann, Juliane; Nicholls, Robert J

    2015-01-01

    Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential. Furthermore, we

  6. Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding - A Global Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumann, Barbara; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Zimmermann, Juliane; Nicholls, Robert J.

    2015-01-01

    Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential. Furthermore, we

  7. Use of ENVISAT ASAR Global Monitoring Mode to complement optical data in the mapping of rapid broad-scale flooding in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. O'Grady

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Envisat ASAR Global Monitoring Mode (GM data are used to produce maps of the extent of the flooding in Pakistan which are made available to the rapid response effort within 24 h of acquisition. The high temporal frequency and independence of the data from cloud-free skies makes GM data a viable tool for mapping flood waters during those periods where optical satellite data are unavailable, which may be crucial to rapid response disaster planning, where thousands of lives are affected. Image differencing techniques are used, with pre-flood baseline image backscatter values being deducted from target values to eliminate regions with a permanent flood-like radar response due to volume scattering and attenuation, and to highlight the low response caused by specular reflection by open flood water. The effect of local incidence angle on the received signal is mitigated by ensuring that the deducted image is acquired from the same orbit track as the target image. Poor separability of the water class with land in areas beyond the river channels is tackled using a region-growing algorithm which seeks threshold-conformance from seed pixels at the center of the river channels. The resultant mapped extents are tested against MODIS SWIR data where available, with encouraging results.

  8. Abstracts presented at the 7th World Alliance for Risk Factor Surveillance (WARFS) Global Conference. October 16-19, 2011. Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    The 7th World Alliance for Risk Factor Surveillance (WARFS) Global Conference, hosted by the Public Health Agency of Canada, was held in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, from October 16 to 19, 2011. Previous WARFS conferences were held in USA (1999), Finland (2001), Australia (2003), Uruguay (2005) and Italy (2007, 2009). WARFS is a global working group on surveillance under the International Union for Health Promotion and Education (IUHPE) It supports the development of risk factor surveillance as a tool for evidence-based public health, acknowledging the importance of this source of information to inform, monitor and evaluate disease prevention and health promotion policies and programs. The theme of the 2011 Global Conference was the role of surveillance in the promotion of health. The Global Conference had 146 registered participants, making it the second most attended WARFS conference in its history. Over the three days, participants attended oral and poster presentations from 30 countries. The conference would not have been possible without the hard work of the International Scientific Committee and the Local Organizing Committee. To highlight the importance and the significance of this conference at an international level, Chronic Diseases and Injuries in Canada (CDIC) is pleased to publish this supplementary issue, which contains 70 abstracts presented at the 7th WARFS Global Conference. In the spirit the Global Conference, this collection of abstracts brings together surveillance material on risk factors, chronic diseases, infectious diseases and injuries from around the world. By making these abstracts widely available, CDIC hopes to further the conference objectives through a continued dialogue between those interested in linking risk factor surveillance to health promotion.

  9. Multi-model ensemble projections of European river floods and high flows at 1.5, 2, and 3 degree global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thober, S.; Kumar, R.; Wanders, N.; Marx, A.; Pan, M.; Rakovec, O.; Samaniego, L. E.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Zink, M.

    2017-12-01

    Severe river floods often result in huge economic losses and fatalities. Since 1980, almost 1500 such events have been reported in Europe. This study investigates climate change impacts on European floods under 1.5, 2, and 3 K global warming. The impacts are assessed employing a multi-model ensemble containing three hydrologic models (HMs: mHM, Noah-MP, PCR-GLOBWB) forced by five CMIP5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5). This multi-model ensemble is unprecedented with respect to the combination of its size (45 realisations) and its spatial resolution, which is 5 km over entire Europe. Climate change impacts are quantified for high flows and flood events, represented by 10% exceedance probability and annual maxima of daily streamflow, respectively. The multi-model ensemble points to the Mediterranean region as a hotspot of changes with significant decrements in high flows from -11% at 1.5 K up to -30% at 3 K global warming mainly resulting from reduced precipitation. Small changes (< ±10%) are observed for river basins in Central Europe and the British Isles under different levels of warming. Projected higher annual precipitation increases high flows in Scandinavia, but reduced snow water equivalent decreases flood events in this region. The contribution by the GCMs to the overall uncertainties of the ensemble is in general higher than that by the HMs. The latter, however, have a substantial share of the overall uncertainty and exceed GCM uncertainty in the Mediterranean and Scandinavia. Adaptation measures for limiting the impacts of global warming could be similar under 1.5 K and 2 K global warming, but has to account for significantly higher changes under 3 K global warming.

  10. Multi-model ensemble projections of European river floods and high flows at 1.5, 2, and 3 degrees global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thober, Stephan; Kumar, Rohini; Wanders, Niko; Marx, Andreas; Pan, Ming; Rakovec, Oldrich; Samaniego, Luis; Sheffield, Justin; Wood, Eric F.; Zink, Matthias

    2018-01-01

    Severe river floods often result in huge economic losses and fatalities. Since 1980, almost 1500 such events have been reported in Europe. This study investigates climate change impacts on European floods under 1.5, 2, and 3 K global warming. The impacts are assessed employing a multi-model ensemble containing three hydrologic models (HMs: mHM, Noah-MP, PCR-GLOBWB) forced by five CMIP5 general circulation models (GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5). This multi-model ensemble is unprecedented with respect to the combination of its size (45 realisations) and its spatial resolution, which is 5 km over the entirety of Europe. Climate change impacts are quantified for high flows and flood events, represented by 10% exceedance probability and annual maxima of daily streamflow, respectively. The multi-model ensemble points to the Mediterranean region as a hotspot of changes with significant decrements in high flows from -11% at 1.5 K up to -30% at 3 K global warming mainly resulting from reduced precipitation. Small changes (< ±10%) are observed for river basins in Central Europe and the British Isles under different levels of warming. Projected higher annual precipitation increases high flows in Scandinavia, but reduced snow melt equivalent decreases flood events in this region. Neglecting uncertainties originating from internal climate variability, downscaling technique, and hydrologic model parameters, the contribution by the GCMs to the overall uncertainties of the ensemble is in general higher than that by the HMs. The latter, however, have a substantial share in the Mediterranean and Scandinavia. Adaptation measures for limiting the impacts of global warming could be similar under 1.5 K and 2 K global warming, but have to account for significantly higher changes under 3 K global warming.

  11. Severe Flooding and Malaria Transmission in the Western Ugandan Highlands: Implications for Disease Control in an Era of Global Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyce, Ross; Reyes, Raquel; Matte, Michael; Ntaro, Moses; Mulogo, Edgar; Metlay, Joshua P; Band, Lawrence; Siedner, Mark J

    2016-11-01

     There are several mechanisms by which global climate change may impact malaria transmission. We sought to assess how the increased frequency of extreme precipitation events associated with global climate change will influence malaria transmission in highland areas of East Africa.  We used a differences-in-differences, quasi-experimental design to examine spatial variability in the incidence rate of laboratory-confirmed malaria cases and malaria-related hospitalizations between villages (1) at high versus low elevations, (2) with versus without rivers, and (3) upstream versus downstream before and after severe flooding that occurred in Kasese District, Western Region, Uganda, in May 2013.  During the study period, 7596 diagnostic tests were performed, and 1285 patients were admitted with a diagnosis of malaria. We observed that extreme flooding resulted in an increase of approximately 30% in the risk of an individual having a positive result of a malaria diagnostic test in the postflood period in villages bordering a flood-affected river, compared with villages farther from a river, with a larger relative impact on upstream versus downstream villages (adjusted rate ratio, 1.91 vs 1.33).  Extreme precipitation such as the flooding described here may pose significant challenges to malaria control programs and will demand timely responses to mitigate deleterious impacts on human health. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

  12. 23rd WiN Global Annual Conference: Women in Nuclear meet Atoms for Peace. Programme and Abstracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-01-01

    Women in Nuclear (WiN) Global is a worldwide non-profit-making association made up mostly of female professionals working in the various fields of nuclear energy and radiation applications. WiN Global aims to promote understanding and public awareness of the benefits of nuclear and radiation applications through a series of active networks, both national and international. It has approximately 25 000 members from more than 100 countries, organized in national, regional and international chapters. Every year, a chapter of WiN Global organizes the annual conference, which is a unique occasion for the WiN Global community to meet. The 23. WiN Global Annual Conference will highlight the vital role women play in all applications of nuclear science and technology. At the same time, it will provide opportunities for networking, exchanging ideas, technical visits and obtaining the most up-to-date information on the nuclear programmes and facilities around the world as well as on employment opportunities at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

  13. Western Pyrenees facing global change: comparison of the effects of climatic and anthropogenic change on water abstractions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Terrasson, Isabelle; Chazot, Sebastien; Maton, Laure; Rinaudo, Jean-Daniel; Caballero, Yvan

    2014-01-01

    In the French Western Pyrenees, the trend to the decrease of low water flows that has been observed during the current years should be going on in the future. This may increase the hydric stress on aquatic ecosystems, and the competition among water uses and users for accessing water resources. The research project ANR-VULCAIN compared the impacts of climatic and socio-economic change on the hydro-systems of the French Western Pyrenees. Modeling and participative prospect analysis have been coupled to quantify the evolution of water abstractions under these two types of change. Socio-economic scenarios have been built together with local stakeholders during workshops (urbanism / land planning on the one hand and agriculture on the other hand). Their results have been quantified with the models developed so as to assess anthropogenic change impacts on domestic and agricultural abstractions. In parallel, the agricultural model has been fed with climatic scenarios so as to assess the impacts of climate change on agricultural water needs. In the created scenarios, the evolution of agricultural water needs under climate change have a bigger range than the evolution of abstractions for domestic water and agricultural needs under anthropic change, which are the same order of magnitude. To satisfy this evolution, there are some rooms to maneuver: make distribution modalities more efficient, optimize the management of storage capacity, or use substitution resources. This paper presents the approach that has been followed, and some of the main results. (authors)

  14. The economic costs of natural disasters globally from 1900-2015: historical and normalised floods, storms, earthquakes, volcanoes, bushfires, drought and other disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniell, James; Wenzel, Friedemann; Schaefer, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    For the first time, a breakdown of natural disaster losses from 1900-2015 based on over 30,000 event economic losses globally is given based on increased analysis within the CATDAT Damaging Natural Disaster databases. Using country-CPI and GDP deflator adjustments, over 7 trillion (2015-adjusted) in losses have occurred; over 40% due to flood/rainfall, 26% due to earthquake, 19% due to storm effects, 12% due to drought, 2% due to wildfire and under 1% due to volcano. Using construction cost indices, higher percentages of flood losses are seen. Depending on how the adjustment of dollars are made to 2015 terms (CPI vs. construction cost indices), between 6.5 and 14.0 trillion USD (2015-adjusted) of natural disaster losses have been seen from 1900-2015 globally. Significant reductions in economic losses have been seen in China and Japan from 1950 onwards. An AAL of around 200 billion in the last 16 years has been seen equating to around 0.25% of Global GDP or around 0.1% of Net Capital Stock per year. Normalised losses have also been calculated to examine the trends in vulnerability through time for economic losses. The normalisation methodology globally using the exposure databases within CATDAT that were undertaken previously in papers for the earthquake and volcano databases, are used for this study. The original event year losses are adjusted directly by capital stock change, very high losses are observed with respect to floods over time (however with improved flood control structures). This shows clear trends in the improvement of building stock towards natural disasters and a decreasing trend in most perils for most countries.

  15. Discover Floods Educators Guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Project WET Foundation, 2009

    2009-01-01

    Now available as a Download! This valuable resource helps educators teach students about both the risks and benefits of flooding through a series of engaging, hands-on activities. Acknowledging the different roles that floods play in both natural and urban communities, the book helps young people gain a global understanding of this common--and…

  16. Floods in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theresa K. Andersen; Marshall J. Shepherd

    2013-01-01

    Atmospheric warming and associated hydrological changes have implications for regional flood intensity and frequency. Climate models and hydrological models have the ability to integrate various contributing factors and assess potential changes to hydrology at global to local scales through the century. This survey of floods in a changing climate reviews flood...

  17. GLOFs in the WOS: bibliometrics, geographies and global trends of research on glacial lake outburst floods (Web of Science, 1979-2016)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emmer, Adam

    2018-03-01

    Research on glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) - specific low-frequency, high-magnitude floods originating in glacial lakes, including jökulhlaups - is well justified in the context of glacier ice loss and glacial lake evolution in glacierized areas all over the world. Increasing GLOF research activities, which are documented by the increasing number of published research items, have been observed in the past few decades; however, comprehensive insight into the GLOF research community, its global bibliometrics, geographies and trends in research is missing. To fill this gap, a set of 892 GLOF research items published in the Web of Science database covering the period 1979-2016 was analysed. General bibliometric characteristics, citations and references were analysed, revealing a certain change in the publishing paradigm over time. Furthermore, the global geographies of research on GLOFs were studied, focusing on (i) where GLOFs are studied, (ii) who studies GLOFs, (iii) the export of research on GLOFs and (iv) international collaboration. The observed trends and links to the challenges ahead are discussed and placed in a broader context.

  18. Abstract algebra

    CERN Document Server

    Garrett, Paul B

    2007-01-01

    Designed for an advanced undergraduate- or graduate-level course, Abstract Algebra provides an example-oriented, less heavily symbolic approach to abstract algebra. The text emphasizes specifics such as basic number theory, polynomials, finite fields, as well as linear and multilinear algebra. This classroom-tested, how-to manual takes a more narrative approach than the stiff formalism of many other textbooks, presenting coherent storylines to convey crucial ideas in a student-friendly, accessible manner. An unusual feature of the text is the systematic characterization of objects by universal

  19. Article Abstract

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Abstract. Simple learning tools to improve clinical laboratory practical skills training. B Taye, BSc, MPH. Addis Ababa University, College of Health Sciences, Addis Ababa, ... concerns about the competence of medical laboratory science graduates. ... standardised practical learning guides and assessment checklists would.

  20. Abstract Introduction

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Abstract. Cyclic ovarian activity and plasma progesterone (P4) concentrations were assessed for 179 days in 5. (free grazing) and 6 (free grazing + high energy and protein-supplemented) normocyclic donkeys. In addition, plasma p4 and cortisol were measured in blood samples collected at J5·min intervals in the.

  1. Abstract Introduction

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    cce

    Abstract. Hemoglobin is a tetrameric protein which is able to dissociate into dimers. The dimers can in turn dissociate into tetramers. It has been found that dimers are more reactive than tetramers. The difference in the reactivity of these two species has been used to determine the tetramer- dimer dissociation constant of ...

  2. Regional downscaling of temporal resolution in near-surface wind from statistically downscaled Global Climate Models (GCMs) for use in San Francisco Bay coastal flood modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, A.; Erikson, L. H.; Barnard, P.

    2013-12-01

    While Global Climate Models (GCMs) provide useful projections of near-surface wind vectors into the 21st century, resolution is not sufficient enough for use in regional wave modeling. Statistically downscaled GCM projections from Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogues (MACA) provide daily near-surface winds at an appropriate spatial resolution for wave modeling within San Francisco Bay. Using 30 years (1975-2004) of climatological data from four representative stations around San Francisco Bay, a library of example daily wind conditions for four corresponding over-water sub-regions is constructed. Empirical cumulative distribution functions (ECDFs) of station conditions are compared to MACA GFDL hindcasts to create correction factors, which are then applied to 21st century MACA wind projections. For each projection day, a best match example is identified via least squares error among all stations from the library. The best match's daily variation in velocity components (u/v) is used as an analogue of representative wind variation and is applied at 3-hour increments about the corresponding sub-region's projected u/v values. High temporal resolution reconstructions using this methodology on hindcast MACA fields from 1975-2004 accurately recreate extreme wind values within the San Francisco Bay, and because these extremes in wind forcing are of key importance in wave and subsequent coastal flood modeling, this represents a valuable method of generating near-surface wind vectors for use in coastal flood modeling.

  3. The water footprint of human-made reservoirs for hydropower, irrigation, water supply, flood prevention, fishing and recreation on a global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogeboom, Rick; Knook, Luuk; Hoekstra, Arjen

    2017-04-01

    Increasing the availability of freshwater to meet growing and competing demands is on many policy agendas. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) prescribe sustainable management of water for human consumption. For centuries humans have resorted to building dams to store water in periods of excess for use in times of shortage. Although dams and their reservoirs have made important contributions to human development, it is increasingly acknowledged that reservoirs can be substantial water consumers as well. We estimated the water footprint of human-made reservoirs on a global scale and attributed it to the various reservoir purposes (hydropower generation, residential and industrial water supply, irrigation water supply, flood protection, fishing and recreation) based on their economic value. We found that economic benefits from derived products and services from 2235 reservoirs globally, amount to 311 billion US dollar annually, with residential and industrial water supply and hydropower generation as major contributors. The water footprint associated with these benefits is the sum of the water footprint of dam construction (footprint of reservoirs globally adds up to ˜104 km3yr-1. Attribution per purpose shows that, with a global average water footprint of 21,5 m3GJ,-1 hydropower on average is a water intensive form of energy. We contextualized the water footprint of reservoirs and their purposes with regard to the water scarcity level of the river basin in which they occur. We found the lion's share (55%) of the water footprint is located in non-water scarce basins and only 1% in year-round scarce basins. The purpose for which the reservoir is primarily used changes with increasing water scarcity, from mainly hydropower generation in non-scarce basins, to the (more essential) purposes residential and industrial water supply, irrigation and flood control in scarcer areas. The quantitative explication of how the burden of water consumption from reservoirs is

  4. Resilience and renewal of public policies for flood risk management. Between globalized approach and localized stakes. Is there still a place for threat ?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldet, Bertrand

    2010-05-01

    The incertainties due to climate changes are often evocated in order to explain the increase of natural threats. This study aims to explore the dynamics that are at work within the systems of actors dealing with policies for flood risk management and to introduce the evolutions of public action in this field. We will be showing that there are two different levels of changes. The first mutation is based on the integration of (…). This evolution, albeit it isn' t specific with policies for flood risk management, contributes nevertheless to a renewal recognition of the threat. Secondly, we will indicate that the approach of flood risk changed by itself, it is more « including ». In nowadays, to be able to understand natural risk one needs a positioning all-embracing wich is not confined to the hydraulic dimension. To be able to manage the threat one needs to reconsider all the activities of the valley and to put forward a new approach of the natural environment. In order to explain that changes, we will use the resilience concept. In outline, resilience is defined "as the measure of a part of system's capacity to absorb and recover from occurrence of a hazardous event" (Timmerman). This concept allows to describe the system stability and the capacity to confront change and to manage incertainty. The incertainties due to climate change, the troubles to identify the hazards, the multiplicity of representations about the stakes that have to be protected are a lot of factors wich make the flood risk management more complex and lead the system of actors to regular adaptations. This analysis is based on a ethnographic study, we met local government actors, ecological associations, riverside residents associations, experts…. These actors have to manage the floods of the « Touch ». This river is located in south of France, it crosses his valley (…) before to reach the Garonne near to Toulouse. An historic (view) of the management of the river will lead us to

  5. Global scale concentrations of volcanic activity on Venus: A summary of three 23rd Lunar and Planetary Science Conference abstracts. 1: Venus volcanism: Global distribution and classification from Magellan data. 2: A major global-scale concentration of volcanic activity in the Beta-Atla-Themis region of Venus. 3: Two global concentrations of volcanism on Venus: Geologic associations and implications for global pattern of upwelling and downwelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crumpler, L. S.; Aubele, Jayne C.; Head, James W.; Guest, J.; Saunders, R. S.

    1992-01-01

    As part of the analysis of data from the Magellan Mission, we have compiled a global survey of the location, dimensions, and subsidiary notes of all identified volcanic features on Venus. More than 90 percent of the surface area was examined and the final catalog comprehensively identifies 1548 individual volcanic features larger than approximately 20 km in diameter. Volcanic features included are large volcanoes, intermediate volcanoes, fields of small shield volcanoes, calderas, large lava channels, and lava floods as well as unusual features first noted on Venus such as coronae, arachnoids, and novae.

  6. Possible Juventae Chasma subice volcanic eruptions and Maja Valles ice outburst floods on Mars: Implications of Mars Global surveyor crater densities, geomorphology, and topography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, M.G.; Gudmundsson, M.T.; Russell, A.J.; Hare, T.M.

    2003-01-01

    This article discusses image, topographic, and spectral data from the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) mission that provide new information concerning the surface age, geomorphology, and topography of the Juventae Chasma/Maja Valles system. Our study utilizes data from two instruments on board MGS: images from the Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) and topography from the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA). Within Maja Valles we can now observe depositional bars with megaripples that unequivocally show catastrophic floods occurred in the channel. Viking impact crater densities indicated the chasma and channel floor areas were all one age (late Hesperian to Amazonian); however, MOC data indicate a marked difference in densities of small craters between Juventae Chasma, Maja Valles, and the channel debouchment area in Chryse Planitia basin. Although other processes may contribute to crater variability, young resurfacing events in the chasma and episodes of recent erosion at Maja Valles channel head may possibly account for the disparate crater densities along the chasma/channel system. Relatively young volcanic eruptions may have contributed to resurfacing; as in Juventae Chasma, a small possible volcanic cone of young dark material is observed. MOC data also indicate previously unknown interior layered deposit mounds in the chasma that indicate at least two periods of mound formation. Finally, MOLA topography shows that the entire floor of the chasma lies at the same elevation as the channel debouchment area in Chryse basin, resulting in a 3-km-high barrier to water flow out of the chasma. Blocked ponded water would rapidly freeze in the current (and likely past) climate of Mars. For catastrophic flow to occur in Maja Valles, some process is required to melt ice and induce floods out of the chasma. We suggest subice volcanic eruption and calculate estimates of water discharges and volumes that these eruptions might have produced.

  7. Is flood defense changing in nature? Shifts in the flood defense strategy in six European countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gralepois, M.; Larrue, C.; Wiering, M.A.; Crabbé, A.; Tapsell, S.; Mees, H.; Ek, K.; Szwed, M.

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT. In many countries, flood defense has historically formed the core of flood risk management but this strategy is now evolving with the changing approach to risk management. This paper focuses on the neglected analysis of institutional changes within the flood defense strategies formulated

  8. Toward more flood resilience: Is a diversification of flood risk management strategies the way forward?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hegger, D.L.T.; Driessen, P.P.J.; Wiering, M.A.; Rijswick, H.F.M.W. van; Kundzewicz, P.; Matczak, A.; Crabbé, A.; Raadgever, G.T.; Bakker, M.H.N.; Priest, S.J.; Larrue, C.; Ek, K.; Hegger, D.; Driessen, P.P.J.; Raadgever, T.; Priest, S.

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT. European countries face increasing flood risks because of urbanization, increase of exposure and damage potential, and the effects of climate change. In literature and in practice, it is argued that a diversification of strategies for flood risk management (FRM), including flood risk

  9. Recent advances in flood forecasting and flood risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Arduino

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent large floods in Europe have led to increased interest in research and development of flood forecasting systems. Some of these events have been provoked by some of the wettest rainfall periods on record which has led to speculation that such extremes are attributable in some measure to anthropogenic global warming and represent the beginning of a period of higher flood frequency. Whilst current trends in extreme event statistics will be difficult to discern, conclusively, there has been a substantial increase in the frequency of high floods in the 20th century for basins greater than 2x105 km2. There is also increasing that anthropogenic forcing of climate change may lead to an increased probability of extreme precipitation and, hence, of flooding. There is, therefore, major emphasis on the improvement of operational flood forecasting systems in Europe, with significant European Community spending on research and development on prototype forecasting systems and flood risk management projects. This Special Issue synthesises the most relevant scientific and technological results presented at the International Conference on Flood Forecasting in Europe held in Rotterdam from 3-5 March 2003. During that meeting 150 scientists, forecasters and stakeholders from four continents assembled to present their work and current operational best practice and to discuss future directions of scientific and technological efforts in flood prediction and prevention. The papers presented at the conference fall into seven themes, as follows.

  10. Towards a Flood Severity Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kettner, A.; Chong, A.; Prades, L.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Muir, S.; Amparore, A.; Slayback, D. A.; Poungprom, R.

    2017-12-01

    Flooding is the most common natural hazard worldwide, affecting 21 million people every year. In the immediate moments following a flood event, humanitarian actors like the World Food Program need to make rapid decisions ( 72 hrs) on how to prioritize affected areas impacted by such an event. For other natural disasters like hurricanes/cyclones and earthquakes, there are industry-recognized standards on how the impacted areas are to be classified. Shake maps, quantifying peak ground motion, from for example the US Geological Survey are widely used for assessing earthquakes. Similarly, cyclones are tracked by Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS) who release storm nodes and tracks (forecasted and actual), with wind buffers and classify the event according to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. For floods, the community is usually able to acquire unclassified data of the flood extent as identified from satellite imagery. Most often no water discharge hydrograph is available to classify the event into recurrence intervals simply because there is no gauging station, or the gauging station was unable to record the maximum discharge due to overtopping or flood damage. So, the question remains: How do we methodically turn a flooded area into classified areas of different gradations of impact? Here, we present a first approach towards developing a global applicable flood severity index. The flood severity index is set up such that it considers relatively easily obtainable physical parameters in a short period of time like: flood frequency (relating the current flood to historical events) and magnitude, as well as land cover, slope, and where available pre-event simulated flood depth. The scale includes categories ranging from very minor flooding to catastrophic flooding. We test and evaluate the postulated classification scheme against a set of past flood events. Once a severity category is determined, socio

  11. Flood Water Segmentation from Crowdsourced Images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, J. K.; Minsker, B. S.

    2017-12-01

    In the United States, 176 people were killed by flooding in 2015. Along with the loss of human lives is the economic cost which is estimated to be $4.5 billion per flood event. Urban flooding has become a recent concern due to the increase in population, urbanization, and global warming. As more and more people are moving into towns and cities with infrastructure incapable of coping with floods, there is a need for more scalable solutions for urban flood management.The proliferation of camera-equipped mobile devices have led to a new source of information for flood research. In-situ photographs captured by people provide information at the local level that remotely sensed images fail to capture. Applications of crowdsourced images to flood research required understanding the content of the image without the need for user input. This paper addresses the problem of how to automatically segment a flooded and non-flooded region in crowdsourced images. Previous works require two images taken at similar angle and perspective of the location when it is flooded and when it is not flooded. We examine three different algorithms from the computer vision literature that are able to perform segmentation using a single flood image without these assumptions. The performance of each algorithm is evaluated on a collection of labeled crowdsourced flood images. We show that it is possible to achieve a segmentation accuracy of 80% using just a single image.

  12. ESPR 2015. Abstracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-01-01

    The volume includes the abstracts of the ESPR 2015 covering the following topics: PCG (post graduate courses): Radiography; fluoroscopy and general issue; nuclear medicine, interventional radiology and hybrid imaging, pediatric CT, pediatric ultrasound; MRI in childhood. Scientific sessions and task force sessions: International aspects; neuroradiology, neonatal imaging, engineering techniques to simulate injury in child abuse, CT - dose and quality, challenges in the chest, cardiovascular and chest, muscoskeletal, oncology, pediatric uroradiology and abdominal imaging, fetal and postmortem imaging, education and global challenges, neuroradiology - head and neck, gastrointestinal and genitourinary.

  13. ESPR 2015. Abstracts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2015-05-10

    The volume includes the abstracts of the ESPR 2015 covering the following topics: PCG (post graduate courses): Radiography; fluoroscopy and general issue; nuclear medicine, interventional radiology and hybrid imaging, pediatric CT, pediatric ultrasound; MRI in childhood. Scientific sessions and task force sessions: International aspects; neuroradiology, neonatal imaging, engineering techniques to simulate injury in child abuse, CT - dose and quality, challenges in the chest, cardiovascular and chest, muscoskeletal, oncology, pediatric uroradiology and abdominal imaging, fetal and postmortem imaging, education and global challenges, neuroradiology - head and neck, gastrointestinal and genitourinary.

  14. Abstracts and Abstracting in Knowledge Discovery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinto, Maria; Lancaster, F. W.

    1999-01-01

    Presents various levels of criteria for judging the quality of abstracts and abstracting. Requirements for abstracts to be read by humans are compared with requirements for those to be searched by computer. Concludes that the wide availability of complete text in electronic form does not reduce the value of abstracts for information retrieval.…

  15. FLOOD MENACE IN KADUNA METROPOLIS: IMPACTS ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dr A.B.Ahmed

    ABSTRACT. This study assesses how Kaduna Metropolis have been affected by flood menace incidences as it takes a look at the devastating impacts, remedial and management strategies at curbing flooding in Kaduna Metropolis which has almost become a yearly occurrence. Data for this study were obtained from.

  16. The impact of local land subsidence and global sea level rise on flood severity in Houston-Galveston caused by Hurricane Harvey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, M. M.; Shirzaei, M.

    2017-12-01

    Category-4 Hurricane Harvey had devastating socioeconomic impacts to Houston, with flooding far past the 100-year flood zones published by FEMA. In recent decades, frequency and intensity of coastal flooding are escalating, correlated with sea level rise (SLR). Moreover, Local land subsidence (LLS) due to groundwater and hydrocarbon extraction and natural compaction changes surface elevation and slope, potentially altering drainage patterns. GPS data show a mm broad co-cyclonic subsidence due to elastic loading from the water mass measured by GPS, which is inverted to solve for the total fluid volume of 2.73x1010 m3. We additionally investigate the joint impact of an SLR and pre-cyclonic LLS on the flooding of Houston-Galveston during Hurricane Harvey. We examine vertical land motion within North American Vertical Datum 2012 for the period 2007 until the cyclone by investigating SAR imaged acquired by ALOS and Sentinel-1A/B radar satellites combined with GPS data. We find patchy, LLS bowls resulting in sinks where floodwater can collect. We map the flooding extent by comparing amplitudes of Sentinal1-A/B pixels' backscattered radar signal from pre- and post-Harvey acquisitions and estimate 782 km2 are submerged within the area of 3478 km2 of pixels covered by Sentinel frame. Comparing with the LLS map, 89% of the flooded pixels exhibit -3 mm/yr or greater vertical motion. Flooding attributed to the storm surge is determined with high-resolution LiDAR digital elevation models (DEM) and a 0.75 m storm tide inundation model, which engulfs only 195 km2 and nearby the shorelines. We estimate future inundation hazard by combining LiDAR DEMs with our InSAR derived subsidence map, projecting LLS rates forward 100 years, and modeling projected SLR from 0.4 to 1.2 meters. Were subsidence to continue unabated, the total flooded area is 281 km2 with a 0.4 m and 394 km2 with a 1.2 m SLR. Next, we add a modest storm tide (0.752 m), which increases the flooded area to 389 - 480

  17. Globalization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  18. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Tulio Rosembuj

    2006-01-01

    There is no singular globalization, nor is the result of an individual agent. We could start by saying that global action has different angles and subjects who perform it are different, as well as its objectives. The global is an invisible invasion of materials and immediate effects.

  19. Tsengwen Reservoir Watershed Hydrological Flood Simulation Under Global Climate Change Using the 20 km Mesh Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-AGCM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nobuaki Kimura

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Severe rainstorms have occurred more frequently in Taiwan over the last decade. To understand the flood characteristics of a local region under climate change, a hydrological model simulation was conducted for the Tsengwen Reservoir watershed. The model employed was the Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS, which has a conceptual, distributed rainfall-runoff analysis module and a GIS data-input function. The high-resolution rainfall data for flood simulation was categorized into three terms: 1979 - 2003 (Present, 2015 - 2039 (Near-future, and 2075 - 2099 (Future, provided by the Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation model (MRI-AGCM. Ten extreme rainfall (top ten events were selected for each term in descending order of total precipitation volume. Due to the small watershed area the MRI-AGCM3.2S data was downsized into higher resolution data using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. The simulated discharges revealed that most of the Near-future and Future peaks caused by extreme rainfall increased compared to the Present peak. These ratios were 0.8 - 1.6 (Near-future/Present and 0.9 - 2.2 (Future/Present, respectively. Additionally, we evaluated how these future discharges would affect the reservoir¡¦s flood control capacity, specifically the excess water volume required to be stored while maintaining dam releases up to the dam¡¦s spillway capacity or the discharge peak design for flood prevention. The results for the top ten events show that the excess water for the Future term exceeded the reservoir¡¦s flood control capacity and was approximately 79.6 - 87.5% of the total reservoir maximum capacity for the discharge peak design scenario.

  20. Floods and human health: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alderman, Katarzyna; Turner, Lyle R; Tong, Shilu

    2012-10-15

    Floods are the most common type of disaster globally, responsible for almost 53,000 deaths in the last decade alone (23:1 low- versus high-income countries). This review assessed recent epidemiological evidence on the impacts of floods on human health. Published articles (2004-2011) on the quantitative relationship between floods and health were systematically reviewed. 35 relevant epidemiological studies were identified. Health outcomes were categorized into short- and long-term and were found to depend on the flood characteristics and people's vulnerability. It was found that long-term health effects are currently not well understood. Mortality rates were found to increase by up to 50% in the first year post-flood. After floods, it was found there is an increased risk of disease outbreaks such as hepatitis E, gastrointestinal disease and leptospirosis, particularly in areas with poor hygiene and displaced populations. Psychological distress in survivors (prevalence 8.6% to 53% two years post-flood) can also exacerbate their physical illness. There is a need for effective policies to reduce and prevent flood-related morbidity and mortality. Such steps are contingent upon the improved understanding of potential health impacts of floods. Global trends in urbanization, burden of disease, malnutrition and maternal and child health must be better reflected in flood preparedness and mitigation programs. Crown Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Is flood defense changing in nature? Shifts in the flood defense strategy in six European countries

    OpenAIRE

    Mathilde Gralepois; Corinne Larrue; Mark Wiering; Ann Crabbé; Sue Tapsell; Hannelore Mees; Kristina Ek; Malgorzata Szwed

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT. In many countries, flood defense has historically formed the core of flood risk management but this strategy is now evolving with the changing approach to risk management. This paper focuses on the neglected analysis of institutional changes within the flood defense strategies formulated and implemented in six European countries (Belgium, England, France, the Netherlands, Poland and Sweden). The evolutions within the defense strategy over the last 30 years have been analyzed with th...

  2. From Abstract Art to Abstracted Artists

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romi Mikulinsky

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available What lineage connects early abstract films and machine-generated YouTube videos? Hans Richter’s famous piece Rhythmus 21 is considered to be the first abstract film in the experimental tradition. The Webdriver Torso YouTube channel is composed of hundreds of thousands of machine-generated test patterns designed to check frequency signals on YouTube. This article discusses geometric abstraction vis-à-vis new vision, conceptual art and algorithmic art. It argues that the Webdriver Torso is an artistic marvel indicative of a form we call mathematical abstraction, which is art performed by computers and, quite possibly, for computers.

  3. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    Andru?cã Maria Carmen

    2013-01-01

    The field of globalization has highlighted an interdependence implied by a more harmonious understanding determined by the daily interaction between nations through the inducement of peace and the management of streamlining and the effectiveness of the global economy. For the functioning of the globalization, the developing countries that can be helped by the developed ones must be involved. The international community can contribute to the institution of the development environment of the gl...

  4. Global and regional aspects for genesis of catastrophic floods - the problems of forecasting and estimates for mass and water balance (surface and groundwater contribution)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trifonova, Tatiana; Arakelian, Sergei; Trifonov, Dmitriy; Abrakhin, Sergei

    2017-04-01

    1. The principal goal of present talk is, to discuss the existing uncertainty and discrepancy between water balance estimation for the area under heavy rain flood, on the one hand from the theoretical approach and reasonable data base due to rainfall going from atmosphere and, on the other hand the real practicle surface water flow parameters measured by some methods and/or fixed by some eye-witness (cf. [1]). The vital item for our discussion is that the last characteristics sometimes may be noticeably grater than the first ones. Our estimations show the grater water mass discharge observation during the events than it could be expected from the rainfall process estimation only [2]. The fact gives us the founding to take into account the groundwater possible contribution to the event. 2. We carried out such analysis, at least, for two catastrophic water events in 2015, i.e. (1) torrential rain and catastrophic floods in Lousiana (USA), June 16-20; (2) Assam flood (India), Aug. 22 - Sept. 8. 3. Groundwater flood of a river terrace discussed e.g. in [3] but in respect when rise of the water table above the land surface occurs coincided with intense rainfall and being as a relatively rare phenomenon. In our hypothesis the principal part of possible groundwater exit to surface is connected with a crack-net system state in earth-crust (including deep layers) as a water transportation system, first, being in variated pressure field for groundwater basin and, second, modified by different reasons ( both suddenly (the Krimsk-city flash flood event, July 2012, Russia) and/or smoothly (the Amur river flood event, Aug.-Sept. 2013, Russia) ). Such reconstruction of 3D crack-net under external reasons (resulting even in local variation of pressures in any crack-section) is a principal item for presented approach. 4. We believe that in some cases the interconnection of floods and preceding earthquakes may occur. The problem discuss by us for certain events ( e.g. in addition to

  5. Programme and abstracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1975-01-01

    Abstracts of 25 papers presented at the congress are given. The abstracts cover various topics including radiotherapy, radiopharmaceuticals, radioimmunoassay, health physics, radiation protection and nuclear medicine

  6. Flood Foresight: A near-real time flood monitoring and forecasting tool for rapid and predictive flood impact assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Revilla-Romero, Beatriz; Shelton, Kay; Wood, Elizabeth; Berry, Robert; Bevington, John; Hankin, Barry; Lewis, Gavin; Gubbin, Andrew; Griffiths, Samuel; Barnard, Paul; Pinnell, Marc; Huyck, Charles

    2017-04-01

    The hours and days immediately after a major flood event are often chaotic and confusing, with first responders rushing to mobilise emergency responders, provide alleviation assistance and assess loss to assets of interest (e.g., population, buildings or utilities). Preparations in advance of a forthcoming event are becoming increasingly important; early warning systems have been demonstrated to be useful tools for decision markers. The extent of damage, human casualties and economic loss estimates can vary greatly during an event, and the timely availability of an accurate flood extent allows emergency response and resources to be optimised, reduces impacts, and helps prioritise recovery. In the insurance sector, for example, insurers are under pressure to respond in a proactive manner to claims rather than waiting for policyholders to report losses. Even though there is a great demand for flood inundation extents and severity information in different sectors, generating flood footprints for large areas from hydraulic models in real time remains a challenge. While such footprints can be produced in real time using remote sensing, weather conditions and sensor availability limit their ability to capture every single flood event across the globe. In this session, we will present Flood Foresight (www.floodforesight.com), an operational tool developed to meet the universal requirement for rapid geographic information, before, during and after major riverine flood events. The tool provides spatial data with which users can measure their current or predicted impact from an event - at building, basin, national or continental scales. Within Flood Foresight, the Screening component uses global rainfall predictions to provide a regional- to continental-scale view of heavy rainfall events up to a week in advance, alerting the user to potentially hazardous situations relevant to them. The Forecasting component enhances the predictive suite of tools by providing a local

  7. Advancing flood risk analysis by integrating adaptive behaviour in large-scale flood risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haer, T.; Botzen, W.; Aerts, J.

    2016-12-01

    In the last four decades the global population living in the 1/100 year-flood zone has doubled from approximately 500 million to a little less than 1 billion people. Urbanization in low lying -flood prone- cities further increases the exposed assets, such as buildings and infrastructure. Moreover, climate change will further exacerbate flood risk in the future. Accurate flood risk assessments are important to inform policy-makers and society on current- and future flood risk levels. However, these assessment suffer from a major flaw in the way they estimate flood vulnerability and adaptive behaviour of individuals and governments. Current flood risk projections commonly assume that either vulnerability remains constant, or try to mimic vulnerability through incorporating an external scenario. Such a static approach leads to a misrepresentation of future flood risk, as humans respond adaptively to flood events, flood risk communication, and incentives to reduce risk. In our study, we integrate adaptive behaviour in a large-scale European flood risk framework through an agent-based modelling approach. This allows for the inclusion of heterogeneous agents, which dynamically respond to each other and a changing environment. We integrate state-of-the-art flood risk maps based on climate scenarios (RCP's), and socio-economic scenarios (SSP's), with government and household agents, which behave autonomously based on (micro-)economic behaviour rules. We show for the first time that excluding adaptive behaviour leads to a major misrepresentation of future flood risk. The methodology is applied to flood risk, but has similar implications for other research in the field of natural hazards. While more research is needed, this multi-disciplinary study advances our understanding of how future flood risk will develop.

  8. Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Plum, Maja

    Globalization is often referred to as external to education - a state of affair facing the modern curriculum with numerous challenges. In this paper it is examined as internal to curriculum; analysed as a problematization in a Foucaultian sense. That is, as a complex of attentions, worries, ways...... of reasoning, producing curricular variables. The analysis is made through an example of early childhood curriculum in Danish Pre-school, and the way the curricular variable of the pre-school child comes into being through globalization as a problematization, carried forth by the comparative practices of PISA...

  9. Globalization

    OpenAIRE

    F. Gerard Adams

    2008-01-01

    The rapid globalization of the world economy is causing fundamental changes in patterns of trade and finance. Some economists have argued that globalization has arrived and that the world is “flat†. While the geographic scope of markets has increased, the author argues that new patterns of trade and finance are a result of the discrepancies between “old†countries and “new†. As the differences are gradually wiped out, particularly if knowledge and technology spread worldwide, the t...

  10. Program and abstracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1975-01-01

    Abstracts of the papers given at the conference are presented. The abstracts are arranged under sessions entitled:Theoretical Physics; Nuclear Physics; Solid State Physics; Spectroscopy; Physics Education; SANCGASS; Astronomy; Plasma Physics; Physics in Industry; Applied and General Physics

  11. Ho Chi Minh City adaptation to increasing risk of coastal and fluvial floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scussolini, Paolo; Lasage, Ralph

    2016-04-01

    Coastal megacities in southeast Asia are a hotspot of vulnerability to floods. In such contexts, the combination of fast socio-economic development and of climate change impacts on precipitation and sea level generates concerns about the flood damage to people and assets. This work focuses on Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, for which we estimate the present and future direct risk from river and coastal floods. A model cascade is used that comprises the Saigon river basin and the urban network, plus the land-use-dependent damaging process. Changes in discharge for five return periods are simulated, enabling the probabilistic calculation of the expected annual economic damage to assets, for differnt scenarios of global emissions, local socio-economic growth, and land subsidence, up to year 2100. The implementation of a range of adaptation strategies is simulated, including building dykes, elevating, creating reservoirs, managing water and sediment upstream, flood-proofing, halting groundwater abstraction. Results are presented on 1) the relative weight of each future driver in determining the flood risk of Ho Chi Minh, and 2) the efficiency and feasibility of each adaptation strategy.

  12. Impacts of extreme flooding on riverbank filtration water quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ascott, M J; Lapworth, D J; Gooddy, D C; Sage, R C; Karapanos, I

    2016-06-01

    Riverbank filtration schemes form a significant component of public water treatment processes on a global level. Understanding the resilience and water quality recovery of these systems following severe flooding is critical for effective water resources management under potential future climate change. This paper assesses the impact of floodplain inundation on the water quality of a shallow aquifer riverbank filtration system and how water quality recovers following an extreme (1 in 17 year, duration >70 days, 7 day inundation) flood event. During the inundation event, riverbank filtrate water quality is dominated by rapid direct recharge and floodwater infiltration (high fraction of surface water, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) >140% baseline values, >1 log increase in micro-organic contaminants, microbial detects and turbidity, low specific electrical conductivity (SEC) 400% baseline). A rapid recovery is observed in water quality with most floodwater impacts only observed for 2-3 weeks after the flooding event and a return to normal groundwater conditions within 6 weeks (lower fraction of surface water, higher SEC, lower DOC, organic and microbial detects, DO). Recovery rates are constrained by the hydrogeological site setting, the abstraction regime and the water quality trends at site boundary conditions. In this case, increased abstraction rates and a high transmissivity aquifer facilitate rapid water quality recoveries, with longer term trends controlled by background river and groundwater qualities. Temporary reductions in abstraction rates appear to slow water quality recoveries. Flexible operating regimes such as the one implemented at this study site are likely to be required if shallow aquifer riverbank filtration systems are to be resilient to future inundation events. Development of a conceptual understanding of hydrochemical boundaries and site hydrogeology through monitoring is required to assess the suitability of a prospective riverbank filtration

  13. Globalization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Plum, Maja

    Globalization is often referred to as external to education - a state of affair facing the modern curriculum with numerous challenges. In this paper it is examined as internal to curriculum; analysed as a problematization in a Foucaultian sense. That is, as a complex of attentions, worries, ways...... of reasoning, producing curricular variables. The analysis is made through an example of early childhood curriculum in Danish Pre-school, and the way the curricular variable of the pre-school child comes into being through globalization as a problematization, carried forth by the comparative practices of PISA....... It thus explores the systems of reason that educational comparative practices carry through time; focusing on the way configurations are reproduced and transformed, forming the pre-school child as a central curricular variable....

  14. Case studies of extended model-based flood forecasting: prediction of dike strength and flood impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuparu, Dana; Bachmann, Daniel; Bogaard, Tom; Twigt, Daniel; Verkade, Jan; de Bruijn, Karin; de Leeuw, Annemargreet

    2017-04-01

    Flood forecasts, warning and emergency response are important components in flood risk management. Most flood forecasting systems use models to translate weather predictions to forecasted discharges or water levels. However, this information is often not sufficient for real time decisions. A sound understanding of the reliability of embankments and flood dynamics is needed to react timely and reduce the negative effects of the flood. Where are the weak points in the dike system? When, how much and where the water will flow? When and where is the greatest impact expected? Model-based flood impact forecasting tries to answer these questions by adding new dimensions to the existing forecasting systems by providing forecasted information about: (a) the dike strength during the event (reliability), (b) the flood extent in case of an overflow or a dike failure (flood spread) and (c) the assets at risk (impacts). This work presents three study-cases in which such a set-up is applied. Special features are highlighted. Forecasting of dike strength. The first study-case focusses on the forecast of dike strength in the Netherlands for the river Rhine branches Waal, Nederrijn and IJssel. A so-called reliability transformation is used to translate the predicted water levels at selected dike sections into failure probabilities during a flood event. The reliability of a dike section is defined by fragility curves - a summary of the dike strength conditional to the water level. The reliability information enhances the emergency management and inspections of embankments. Ensemble forecasting. The second study-case shows the setup of a flood impact forecasting system in Dumfries, Scotland. The existing forecasting system is extended with a 2D flood spreading model in combination with the Delft-FIAT impact model. Ensemble forecasts are used to make use of the uncertainty in the precipitation forecasts, which is useful to quantify the certainty of a forecasted flood event. From global

  15. Flooding and Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Clearinghouse for Educational Facilities, 2011

    2011-01-01

    According to the Federal Emergency Management Agency, flooding is the nation's most common natural disaster. Some floods develop slowly during an extended period of rain or in a warming trend following a heavy snow. Flash floods can occur quickly, without any visible sign of rain. Catastrophic floods are associated with burst dams and levees,…

  16. Effectiveness of water infrastructure for river flood management – Part 1: Flood hazard assessment using hydrological models in Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Gusyev

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This study introduces a flood hazard assessment part of the global flood risk assessment (Part 2 conducted with a distributed hydrological Block-wise TOP (BTOP model and a GIS-based Flood Inundation Depth (FID model. In this study, the 20 km grid BTOP model was developed with globally available data on and applied for the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM river basin. The BTOP model was calibrated with observed river discharges in Bangladesh and was applied for climate change impact assessment to produce flood discharges at each BTOP cell under present and future climates. For Bangladesh, the cumulative flood inundation maps were produced using the FID model with the BTOP simulated flood discharges and allowed us to consider levee effectiveness for reduction of flood inundation. For the climate change impacts, the flood hazard increased both in flood discharge and inundation area for the 50- and 100-year floods. From these preliminary results, the proposed methodology can partly overcome the limitation of the data unavailability and produces flood~maps that can be used for the nationwide flood risk assessment, which is presented in Part 2 of this study.

  17. Compilation of Theses Abstracts

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2005-01-01

    This publication contains unclassified/unrestricted abstracts of classified or restricted theses submitted for the degrees of Doctor of Philosophy, Master of Business Administration, Master of Science...

  18. Computational Abstraction Steps

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Lone Leth; Thomsen, Bent; Nørmark, Kurt

    2010-01-01

    and class instantiations. Our teaching experience shows that many novice programmers find it difficult to write programs with abstractions that materialise to concrete objects later in the development process. The contribution of this paper is the idea of initiating a programming process by creating......In this paper we discuss computational abstraction steps as a way to create class abstractions from concrete objects, and from examples. Computational abstraction steps are regarded as symmetric counterparts to computational concretisation steps, which are well-known in terms of function calls...

  19. Nuclear medicine. Abstracts; Nuklearmedizin 2000. Abstracts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anon.

    2000-07-01

    This issue of the journal contains the abstracts of the 183 conference papers as well as 266 posters presented at the conference. Subject fields covered are: Neurology, psychology, oncology, pediatrics, radiopharmacy, endocrinology, EDP, measuring equipment and methods, radiological protection, cardiology, and therapy. (orig./CB) [German] Die vorliegende Zeitschrift enthaelt die Kurzfassungen der 183 auf der Tagung gehaltenen Vortraege sowie der 226 praesentierten Poster, die sich mit den folgenden Themen befassten: Neurologie, Psychiatrie, Onkologie, Paediatrie, Radiopharmazie, Endokrinologie, EDV, Messtechnik, Strahlenschutz, Kardiologie sowie Therapie. (MG)

  20. ANSI / FM Approvals 2510 flood abatement equipment test standard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kravetz Frédéric

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Natural hazards, including flooding, continue to be the leading cause of commercial and industrial property damage worldwide. Until recently, there has been a limited amount of readily available guidance on choosing flood abatement protection. FM Approvals, a division of FM Global, one of the world’s largest business property insurers, working together with the Association of State Floodplain Managers and the US Army Corps of Engineers have developed a National Flood Barrier Test Program after recognizing the urgent demand for reliable flood abatement products to mitigate potential losses. This lead to the ANSI/ FM2510 flood abatement equipment standard.

  1. Mechanisms of flood tolerance in wheat and rice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herzog, Max

    Most crops are sensitive to excess water, and consequently floods have detrimental effects on crop yields worldwide. In addition, global climate change is expected to regionally increase the number of floods within decades, urging for more flood-tolerant crop cultivars to be released. The aim...... of this thesis was to assess mechanisms conferring rice (Oryza sativa) and wheat (Triticum aestivum) flood tolerance, focusing on the role of leaf gas films during plant submergence. Reviewing the literature showed that wheat germplasm holds genetic variation towards waterlogging (soil flooding), and highlighted...

  2. Neighbourhood Abstraction in GROOVE

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rensink, Arend; Zambon, Eduardo; De Lara, J.; Varro, D.

    2011-01-01

    Important classes of graph grammars have infinite state spaces and therefore cannot be verified with traditional model checking techniques. One way to address this problem is to perform graph abstraction, which allows us to generate a finite abstract state space that over-approximates the original

  3. Truthful Monadic Abstractions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brock-Nannestad, Taus; Schürmann, Carsten

    2012-01-01

    indefinitely, finding neither a proof nor a disproof of a given subgoal. In this paper we characterize a family of truth-preserving abstractions from intuitionistic first-order logic to the monadic fragment of classical first-order logic. Because they are truthful, these abstractions can be used to disprove...

  4. Check Sample Abstracts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alter, David; Grenache, David G; Bosler, David S; Karcher, Raymond E; Nichols, James; Rajadhyaksha, Aparna; Camelo-Piragua, Sandra; Rauch, Carol; Huddleston, Brent J; Frank, Elizabeth L; Sluss, Patrick M; Lewandrowski, Kent; Eichhorn, John H; Hall, Janet E; Rahman, Saud S; McPherson, Richard A; Kiechle, Frederick L; Hammett-Stabler, Catherine; Pierce, Kristin A; Kloehn, Erica A; Thomas, Patricia A; Walts, Ann E; Madan, Rashna; Schlesinger, Kathie; Nawgiri, Ranjana; Bhutani, Manoop; Kanber, Yonca; Abati, Andrea; Atkins, Kristen A; Farrar, Robert; Gopez, Evelyn Valencerina; Jhala, Darshana; Griffin, Sonya; Jhala, Khushboo; Jhala, Nirag; Bentz, Joel S; Emerson, Lyska; Chadwick, Barbara E; Barroeta, Julieta E; Baloch, Zubair W; Collins, Brian T; Middleton, Owen L; Davis, Gregory G; Haden-Pinneri, Kathryn; Chu, Albert Y; Keylock, Joren B; Ramoso, Robert; Thoene, Cynthia A; Stewart, Donna; Pierce, Arand; Barry, Michelle; Aljinovic, Nika; Gardner, David L; Barry, Michelle; Shields, Lisa B E; Arnold, Jack; Stewart, Donna; Martin, Erica L; Rakow, Rex J; Paddock, Christopher; Zaki, Sherif R; Prahlow, Joseph A; Stewart, Donna; Shields, Lisa B E; Rolf, Cristin M; Falzon, Andrew L; Hudacki, Rachel; Mazzella, Fermina M; Bethel, Melissa; Zarrin-Khameh, Neda; Gresik, M Vicky; Gill, Ryan; Karlon, William; Etzell, Joan; Deftos, Michael; Karlon, William J; Etzell, Joan E; Wang, Endi; Lu, Chuanyi M; Manion, Elizabeth; Rosenthal, Nancy; Wang, Endi; Lu, Chuanyi M; Tang, Patrick; Petric, Martin; Schade, Andrew E; Hall, Geraldine S; Oethinger, Margret; Hall, Geraldine; Picton, Avis R; Hoang, Linda; Imperial, Miguel Ranoa; Kibsey, Pamela; Waites, Ken; Duffy, Lynn; Hall, Geraldine S; Salangsang, Jo-Anne M; Bravo, Lulette Tricia C; Oethinger, Margaret D; Veras, Emanuela; Silva, Elvia; Vicens, Jimena; Silva, Elvio; Keylock, Joren; Hempel, James; Rushing, Elizabeth; Posligua, Lorena E; Deavers, Michael T; Nash, Jason W; Basturk, Olca; Perle, Mary Ann; Greco, Alba; Lee, Peng; Maru, Dipen; Weydert, Jamie Allen; Stevens, Todd M; Brownlee, Noel A; Kemper, April E; Williams, H James; Oliverio, Brock J; Al-Agha, Osama M; Eskue, Kyle L; Newlands, Shawn D; Eltorky, Mahmoud A; Puri, Puja K; Royer, Michael C; Rush, Walter L; Tavora, Fabio; Galvin, Jeffrey R; Franks, Teri J; Carter, James Elliot; Kahn, Andrea Graciela; Lozada Muñoz, Luis R; Houghton, Dan; Land, Kevin J; Nester, Theresa; Gildea, Jacob; Lefkowitz, Jerry; Lacount, Rachel A; Thompson, Hannis W; Refaai, Majed A; Quillen, Karen; Lopez, Ana Ortega; Goldfinger, Dennis; Muram, Talia; Thompson, Hannis

    2009-02-01

    The following abstracts are compiled from Check Sample exercises published in 2008. These peer-reviewed case studies assist laboratory professionals with continuing medical education and are developed in the areas of clinical chemistry, cytopathology, forensic pathology, hematology, microbiology, surgical pathology, and transfusion medicine. Abstracts for all exercises published in the program will appear annually in AJCP.

  5. Program and abstracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1976-01-01

    Abstracts of the papers given at the conference are presented. The abstracts are arranged under sessions entitled: Theoretical Physics; Nuclear Physics; Solid State Physics; Spectroscopy; Plasma Physics; Solar-Terrestrial Physics; Astrophysics and Astronomy; Radioastronomy; General Physics; Applied Physics; Industrial Physics

  6. Loss and damage affecting the public health sector and society resulting from flooding and flash floods in Brazil between 2010 and 2014 - based on data from national and global information systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minervino, Aline Costa; Duarte, Elisabeth Carmen

    2016-03-01

    This article outlines the results of a descriptive study that analyses loss and damage caused by hydrometeorological disasters in Brazil between 2010 and 2014 using the EM DAT (global) and S2iD (national) databases. The analysis shows major differences in the total number of disaster events included in the databases (EM-DAT = 36; S2iD = 4,070) and estimated costs of loss and damage (EM-DAT - R$ 9.2 billion; S2iD - R$331.4 billion). The analysis also shows that the five states most affected by these events are Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul, Minas Gerais, São Paulo and Paraná in Brazil's South and Southeast regions and that these results are consistent with the findings of other studies. The costs of disasters were highest for housing, public infrastructure works, collectively used public facilities, other public service facilities, and state health and education facilities. The costs associated with public health facilities were also high. Despite their limitations, both databases demonstrated their usefulness for determining seasonal and long-term trends and patterns, and risk areas, and thus assist decision makers in identifying areas that are most affected by and vulnerable to natural disasters.

  7. Groundwater flood or groundwater-induced flood?

    OpenAIRE

    Robins, N.S.; Finch, J.W.

    2012-01-01

    A number of ‘groundwater flood’ events have been recorded over the Chalk aquifer in southern England since the 1994 occurrence at Chichester, Sussex. Reporting of this event and subsequent groundwater floods indicates that there are two types of groundwater flood event. Type 1 is the true groundwater flood in which the water table elevation rises above the ground elevation, and Type 2 occurs when intense groundwater discharge via bourne springs and highly permeable shallow horizons discharges...

  8. Completeness of Lyapunov Abstraction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wisniewski, Rafal; Sloth, Christoffer

    2013-01-01

    the vector field, which allows the generation of a complete abstraction. To compute the functions that define the subdivision of the state space in an algorithm, we formulate a sum of squares optimization problem. This optimization problem finds the best subdivisioning functions, with respect to the ability......This paper addresses the generation of complete abstractions of polynomial dynamical systems by timed automata. For the proposed abstraction, the state space is divided into cells by sublevel sets of functions. We identify a relation between these functions and their directional derivatives along...

  9. Field note from Pakistan floods: Preventing future flood disasters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcus Oxley

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Unusually heavy monsoon rains in Northern Pakistan have caused disproportionate levels of extreme flooding and unprecedented flood losses across the entire Indus River basin. Extensive land use changes and environmental degradation in the uplands and lowlands of the river basin together with the construction of a “built environment” out of balance with the functioning, capacities, scale and limits of the local ecosystems have exposed millions of people to an increased risk of extreme #ooding. The catastrophic nature of the August #ooding provides a unique opportunity to fundamentally change Pakistan’s current socio-economic development path by incorporating disaster risk reduction and climate change measures into the post-disaster recovery process to rebuild a safer, more resilient nation. In January 2005 one hundred and sixty-eight nations adopted the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA2005-2015 to bring about a “substantial reduction in disaster losses” by 2015. Despite this global initiative a series of major disasters, including the recent flooding in Pakistan, all indicate that we are not on track to achieve the substantial reduction of disaster losses. The following fieldnote considers what can be done to accelerate progress towards implementation of the Hyogo Framework, drawing on insights and lessons learnt from the August flooding to understand how Pakistan and neighbouring countries can prevent a repeat of such catastrophic disasters in future years.

  10. Science meeting. Abstracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    the document is a collection of the science meeting abstracts in the fields of nuclear physics, medical sciences, chemistry, agriculture, environment, engineering, material sciences different aspects of energy and presents research done in 2000 in these fields

  11. The deleuzian abstract machines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Werner Petersen, Erik

    2005-01-01

    To most people the concept of abstract machines is connected to the name of Alan Turing and the development of the modern computer. The Turing machine is universal, axiomatic and symbolic (E.g. operating on symbols). Inspired by Foucault, Deleuze and Guattari extended the concept of abstract...... machines to singular, non-axiomatic and diagrammatic machines. That is: Machines which constitute becomings. This presentation gives a survey of the development of the concept of abstract machines in the philosophy of Deleuze and Guatari and the function of these abstract machines in the creation of works...... of art. From Difference and Repetition to Anti-Oedipus, the machines are conceived as binary machines based on the exclusive or inclusive use respectively of the three syntheses: conexa, disjuncta and conjuncta. The machines have a twofold embedment: In the desiring-production and in the social...

  12. Mathematical games, abstract games

    CERN Document Server

    Neto, Joao Pedro

    2013-01-01

    User-friendly, visually appealing collection offers both new and classic strategic board games. Includes abstract games for two and three players and mathematical games such as Nim and games on graphs.

  13. Changes in the timing and magnitude of floods in Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cunderlik, J.M.; Ouarda, T.B.M.J.

    2008-01-01

    It is expected that the global climate change will have significant impacts on the regime of hydrologic extremes. An increase in both the frequency and magnitude of hydrologic extremes is anticipated in the near future. As a consequence, the design and operation of water resource systems will have to adapt to the changing regime of hydrologic extremes. This study explores trends in the timing and magnitude of floods in natural streamflow gauging stations in Canada. The seasonality of floods is analyzed and the selected streamflow stations grouped into five flood seasonality regions. A common 30-year long observation period from 1974 to 2003 is used in the analysis to eliminate the effect of hydro-climatic variability in the timing and magnitude of floods resulting from different observation periods. The timing of floods is described in terms of directional statistics. A method is developed for analyzing trends in directional dates of flood occurrence that is not affected by the choice of zero direction. The magnitude of floods is analyzed by the annual maximum and peak-over-threshold methods. Trends in the timing and magnitude of floods are identified in each flood seasonality region using the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test, with a modification for auto-correlated data. The results show a good correspondence between the identified flood seasonality regions and the main terrestrial zones in Canada. Significant changes in the timing and magnitude of floods are found in the flood seasonality regions. (author)

  14. Introduction to abstract algebra

    CERN Document Server

    Smith, Jonathan D H

    2008-01-01

    Taking a slightly different approach from similar texts, Introduction to Abstract Algebra presents abstract algebra as the main tool underlying discrete mathematics and the digital world. It helps students fully understand groups, rings, semigroups, and monoids by rigorously building concepts from first principles. A Quick Introduction to Algebra The first three chapters of the book show how functional composition, cycle notation for permutations, and matrix notation for linear functions provide techniques for practical computation. The author also uses equivalence relations to introduc

  15. Abstract Storage Devices

    OpenAIRE

    Koenig, Robert; Maurer, Ueli; Tessaro, Stefano

    2007-01-01

    A quantum storage device differs radically from a conventional physical storage device. Its state can be set to any value in a certain (infinite) state space, but in general every possible read operation yields only partial information about the stored state. The purpose of this paper is to initiate the study of a combinatorial abstraction, called abstract storage device (ASD), which models deterministic storage devices with the property that only partial information about the state can be re...

  16. Abstracts of contributed papers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1994-08-01

    This volume contains 571 abstracts of contributed papers to be presented during the Twelfth US National Congress of Applied Mechanics. Abstracts are arranged in the order in which they fall in the program -- the main sessions are listed chronologically in the Table of Contents. The Author Index is in alphabetical order and lists each paper number (matching the schedule in the Final Program) with its corresponding page number in the book.

  17. Base Flood Elevation

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — The National Flood Hazard Layer (NFHL) data incorporates all Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map(DFIRM) databases published by FEMA, and any Letters Of Map Revision...

  18. Flood Hazard Boundaries

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — The National Flood Hazard Layer (NFHL) data incorporates all Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map(DFIRM) databases published by FEMA, and any Letters Of Map Revision...

  19. Flood Control Structures

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — The National Flood Hazard Layer (NFHL) data incorporates all Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map(DFIRM) databases published by FEMA, and any Letters Of Map Revision...

  20. Flood Hazard Area

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — The National Flood Hazard Layer (NFHL) data incorporates all Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map(DFIRM) databases published by FEMA, and any Letters Of Map Revision...

  1. Flood Risk Regional Flood Defences : Technical report

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kok, M.; Jonkman, S.N.; Lendering, K.T.

    2015-01-01

    Historically the Netherlands have always had to deal with the threat of flooding, both from the rivers and the sea as well as from heavy rainfall. The country consists of a large amount of polders, which are low lying areas of land protected from flooding by embankments. These polders require an

  2. Probabilistic, meso-scale flood loss modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreibich, Heidi; Botto, Anna; Schröter, Kai; Merz, Bruno

    2016-04-01

    Flood risk analyses are an important basis for decisions on flood risk management and adaptation. However, such analyses are associated with significant uncertainty, even more if changes in risk due to global change are expected. Although uncertainty analysis and probabilistic approaches have received increased attention during the last years, they are still not standard practice for flood risk assessments and even more for flood loss modelling. State of the art in flood loss modelling is still the use of simple, deterministic approaches like stage-damage functions. Novel probabilistic, multi-variate flood loss models have been developed and validated on the micro-scale using a data-mining approach, namely bagging decision trees (Merz et al. 2013). In this presentation we demonstrate and evaluate the upscaling of the approach to the meso-scale, namely on the basis of land-use units. The model is applied in 19 municipalities which were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany (Botto et al. submitted). The application of bagging decision tree based loss models provide a probability distribution of estimated loss per municipality. Validation is undertaken on the one hand via a comparison with eight deterministic loss models including stage-damage functions as well as multi-variate models. On the other hand the results are compared with official loss data provided by the Saxon Relief Bank (SAB). The results show, that uncertainties of loss estimation remain high. Thus, the significant advantage of this probabilistic flood loss estimation approach is that it inherently provides quantitative information about the uncertainty of the prediction. References: Merz, B.; Kreibich, H.; Lall, U. (2013): Multi-variate flood damage assessment: a tree-based data-mining approach. NHESS, 13(1), 53-64. Botto A, Kreibich H, Merz B, Schröter K (submitted) Probabilistic, multi-variable flood loss modelling on the meso-scale with BT-FLEMO. Risk Analysis.

  3. A Geo-Environmental Assessment of Flood Dynamics in Lower Ajoy ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    `123456789jkl''''#

    A Geo-Environmental Assessment of Flood Dynamics in Lower Ajoy River Inducing Sand. Splay Problem in Eastern India. Sutapa Mukhopadhyay. Abstract: Flood as a widespread destructive natural disaster is recurring in the river basins of Eastern India. Though large number of flood controlling measures have been taken ...

  4. Flood Wave Propagation

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    I available for forecasting the propagation of the flood wave. Introduction. Among all natural disasters, floods are the most frequently occurring phenomena that affect a large section of population all over the world, every year. Throughout the last century, flood- ing has been one of the most devastating disasters both in terms.

  5. Flood Hazard Mapping Assessment for Lebanon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdallah, Chadi; Darwich, Talal; Hamze, Mouin; Zaarour, Nathalie

    2014-05-01

    Of all natural disasters, floods affect the greatest number of people worldwide and have the greatest potential to cause damage. In fact, floods are responsible for over one third of people affected by natural disasters; almost 190 million people in more than 90 countries are exposed to catastrophic floods every year. Nowadays, with the emerging global warming phenomenon, this number is expected to increase, therefore, flood prediction and prevention has become a necessity in many places around the globe to decrease damages caused by flooding. Available evidence hints at an increasing frequency of flooding disasters being witnessed in the last 25 years in Lebanon. The consequences of such events are tragic including annual financial losses of around 15 million dollars. In this work, a hydrologic-hydraulic modeling framework for flood hazard mapping over Lebanon covering 19 watershed was introduced. Several empirical, statistical and stochastic methods to calculate the flood magnitude and its related return periods, where rainfall and river gauge data are neither continuous nor available on a long term basis with an absence of proper river sections that under estimate flows during flood events. TRMM weather satellite information, automated drainage networks, curve numbers and other geometrical characteristics for each basin was prepared using WMS-software and then exported into HMS files to implement the hydrologic modeling (rainfall-runoff) for single designed storm of uniformly distributed depth along each basin. The obtained flow hydrographs were implemented in the hydraulic model (HEC-RAS) where relative water surface profiles are calculated and flood plains are delineated. The model was calibrated using the last flood event of January 2013, field investigation, and high resolution satellite images. Flow results proved to have an accuracy ranging between 83-87% when compared to the computed statistical and stochastic methods. Results included the generation of

  6. Metacognition and abstract reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markovits, Henry; Thompson, Valerie A; Brisson, Janie

    2015-05-01

    The nature of people's meta-representations of deductive reasoning is critical to understanding how people control their own reasoning processes. We conducted two studies to examine whether people have a metacognitive representation of abstract validity and whether familiarity alone acts as a separate metacognitive cue. In Study 1, participants were asked to make a series of (1) abstract conditional inferences, (2) concrete conditional inferences with premises having many potential alternative antecedents and thus specifically conducive to the production of responses consistent with conditional logic, or (3) concrete problems with premises having relatively few potential alternative antecedents. Participants gave confidence ratings after each inference. Results show that confidence ratings were positively correlated with logical performance on abstract problems and concrete problems with many potential alternatives, but not with concrete problems with content less conducive to normative responses. Confidence ratings were higher with few alternatives than for abstract content. Study 2 used a generation of contrary-to-fact alternatives task to improve levels of abstract logical performance. The resulting increase in logical performance was mirrored by increases in mean confidence ratings. Results provide evidence for a metacognitive representation based on logical validity, and show that familiarity acts as a separate metacognitive cue.

  7. Abstract Objects of Verbs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Robering, Klaus

    2014-01-01

    Verbs do often take arguments of quite different types. In an orthodox type-theoretic framework this results in an extreme polysemy of many verbs. In this article, it is shown that this unwanted consequence can be avoided when a theory of "abstract objects" is adopted according to which these obj......Verbs do often take arguments of quite different types. In an orthodox type-theoretic framework this results in an extreme polysemy of many verbs. In this article, it is shown that this unwanted consequence can be avoided when a theory of "abstract objects" is adopted according to which...

  8. Controls on fluvial metamorphosis during global warming at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary (56 Ma) in Spain: extreme droughts, extreme floods or both?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castelltort, Sebastien; Chen, Chen; Guerit, Laure; Foreman, Brady; Paola, Chris; Adatte, Thierry

    2017-04-01

    How does global warming change the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events? The response to this question is partly preserved in the geological record. 56 Ma ago, global temperatures increased during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), leading to a major biotic turnover, but how this event affected the nature of extreme events remains unknown. On several continents, fluvial systems with sinuous channels within fine-grained floodplains suddenly transformed at the P-E boundary into apparently coarser-grained braid plains with frequent lateral migrations, washing their muddy floodplains to the seas. This landscape transformation has been related to aridification and intensification of precipitation allowing transport of coarser material as a result of P-E global warming, with important implications for predicting the consequences of current global change. Here we test this hypothesis by quantifying the magnitude of grain size change and flow depth at a representative P-E locality in Northern Spain. We find that the size of pebbles in transport and flow depth remained similar to, or even smaller than, pre-PETM conditions. This suggests that, if more seasonal and extreme precipitation occurred, they are not necessarily borne out in the predicted deeper flow depths and coarser grain sizes, but rather trigger a shift to multiple active channels. However, an alternative or complementary explanation may rest in pollen data found in coeval marine records and which document a dramatic vegetation shift from permanent conifer forests prior to the crisis into periodic vegetation in brief periods of rain during the hyperthermal episode. Such change induced by long periods of intense droughts, could have enhanced erodibility of channel banks by decreasing root-controlled cohesion of fine-grained floodplains and interfluves, promoting their lateral mobility and the observed fluvial metamorphosis. Thus, although water is regarded as the main agent sculpting

  9. Urban pluvial flood prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk; Jensen, David Getreuer

    2016-01-01

    Flooding produced by high-intensive local rainfall and drainage system capacity exceedance can have severe impacts in cities. In order to prepare cities for these types of flood events – especially in the future climate – it is valuable to be able to simulate these events numerically both...... historically and in real-time. There is a rather untested potential in real-time prediction of urban floods. In this paper radar data observations with different spatial and temporal resolution, radar nowcasts of 0–2 h lead time, and numerical weather models with lead times up to 24 h are used as inputs...... to an integrated flood and drainage systems model in order to investigate the relative difference between different inputs in predicting future floods. The system is tested on a small town Lystrup in Denmark, which has been flooded in 2012 and 2014. Results show it is possible to generate detailed flood maps...

  10. Monadic abstract interpreters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sergey, Ilya; Devriese, Dominique; Might, Matthew

    2013-01-01

    -insensitive analysis. To achieve this unification, we develop a systematic method for transforming a concrete semantics into a monadically-parameterized abstract machine. Changing the monad changes the behavior of the machine. By changing the monad, we recover a spectrum of machines—from the original concrete...

  11. WWNPQFT-2013 - Abstracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cessac, B.; Bianchi, E.; Bellon, M.; Fried, H.; Krajewski, T.; Schubert, C.; Barre, J.; Hofmann, R.; Muller, B.; Raffaelli, B.

    2014-01-01

    The object of this Workshop is to consolidate and publicize new efforts in non perturbative-like Field Theories, relying in Functional Methods, Renormalization Group, and Dyson-Schwinger Equations. A presentation deals with effective vertices and photon-photon scattering in SU(2) Yang-Mills thermodynamics. This document gathers the abstracts of the presentations

  12. 2002 NASPSA Conference Abstracts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Journal of Sport & Exercise Psychology, 2002

    2002-01-01

    Contains abstracts from the 2002 conference of the North American Society for the Psychology of Sport and Physical Activity. The publication is divided into three sections: the preconference workshop, "Effective Teaching Methods in the Classroom;" symposia (motor development, motor learning and control, and sport psychology); and free…

  13. The Abstraction Engine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fortescue, Michael David

    The main thesis of this book is that abstraction, far from being confined to higher formsof cognition, language and logical reasoning, has actually been a major driving forcethroughout the evolution of creatures with brains. It is manifest in emotive as well as rationalthought. Wending its way th...

  14. Composing Interfering Abstract Protocols

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-01

    Tecnologia , Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Caparica, Portugal. This document is a companion technical report of the paper, “Composing Interfering Abstract...a Ciência e Tecnologia (Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology) through the Carnegie Mellon Portugal Program under grant SFRH / BD / 33765

  15. Abstract Film and Beyond.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Grice, Malcolm

    A theoretical and historical account of the main preoccupations of makers of abstract films is presented in this book. The book's scope includes discussion of nonrepresentational forms as well as examination of experiments in the manipulation of time in films. The ten chapters discuss the following topics: art and cinematography, the first…

  16. Seismic Consequence Abstraction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gross, M.

    2004-01-01

    The primary purpose of this model report is to develop abstractions for the response of engineered barrier system (EBS) components to seismic hazards at a geologic repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, and to define the methodology for using these abstractions in a seismic scenario class for the Total System Performance Assessment - License Application (TSPA-LA). A secondary purpose of this model report is to provide information for criticality studies related to seismic hazards. The seismic hazards addressed herein are vibratory ground motion, fault displacement, and rockfall due to ground motion. The EBS components are the drip shield, the waste package, and the fuel cladding. The requirements for development of the abstractions and the associated algorithms for the seismic scenario class are defined in ''Technical Work Plan For: Regulatory Integration Modeling of Drift Degradation, Waste Package and Drip Shield Vibratory Motion and Seismic Consequences'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 171520]). The development of these abstractions will provide a more complete representation of flow into and transport from the EBS under disruptive events. The results from this development will also address portions of integrated subissue ENG2, Mechanical Disruption of Engineered Barriers, including the acceptance criteria for this subissue defined in Section 2.2.1.3.2.3 of the ''Yucca Mountain Review Plan, Final Report'' (NRC 2003 [DIRS 163274])

  17. Seismic Consequence Abstraction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Gross

    2004-10-25

    The primary purpose of this model report is to develop abstractions for the response of engineered barrier system (EBS) components to seismic hazards at a geologic repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, and to define the methodology for using these abstractions in a seismic scenario class for the Total System Performance Assessment - License Application (TSPA-LA). A secondary purpose of this model report is to provide information for criticality studies related to seismic hazards. The seismic hazards addressed herein are vibratory ground motion, fault displacement, and rockfall due to ground motion. The EBS components are the drip shield, the waste package, and the fuel cladding. The requirements for development of the abstractions and the associated algorithms for the seismic scenario class are defined in ''Technical Work Plan For: Regulatory Integration Modeling of Drift Degradation, Waste Package and Drip Shield Vibratory Motion and Seismic Consequences'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 171520]). The development of these abstractions will provide a more complete representation of flow into and transport from the EBS under disruptive events. The results from this development will also address portions of integrated subissue ENG2, Mechanical Disruption of Engineered Barriers, including the acceptance criteria for this subissue defined in Section 2.2.1.3.2.3 of the ''Yucca Mountain Review Plan, Final Report'' (NRC 2003 [DIRS 163274]).

  18. Abstract Objects of Verbs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2014-01-01

    Verbs do often take arguments of quite different types. In an orthodox type-theoretic framework this results in an extreme polysemy of many verbs. In this article, it is shown that this unwanted consequence can be avoided when a theory of "abstract objects" is adopted according to which these obj...

  19. Abstracts of submitted papers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-01-01

    The conference proceedings contain 152 abstracts of presented papers relating to various aspects of personnel dosimetry, the dosimetry of the working and living environment, various types of dosemeters and spectrometers, the use of radionuclides in various industrial fields, the migration of radionuclides on Czechoslovak territory after the Chernobyl accident, theoretical studies of some parameters of ionizing radiation detectors, and their calibration. (M.D.)

  20. Metaphors in Abstract Thought

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    I. Boot (Inge)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThe aim of the dissertation was to investigate the Conceptual Metaphor Theory (CMT, Lakoff & Johnson, 1980, 1999).The CMT proposes that abstract concepts are partly structured by concrete concepts through the mechanism of metaphorical mapping. In Chapter 2 we wanted to investigate the

  1. SPR 2015. Abstracts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2015-04-01

    The volume contains the abstracts of the SPR (society for pediatric radiology) 2015 meeting covering the following issues: fetal imaging, muscoskeletal imaging, cardiac imaging, chest imaging, oncologic imaging, tools for process improvement, child abuse, contrast enhanced ultrasound, image gently - update of radiation dose recording/reporting/monitoring - meaningful or useless meaning?, pediatric thoracic imaging, ALARA.

  2. Reflective Abstraction and Representation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewin, Philip

    Piaget's theory of reflective abstraction can supplement cognitive science models of representation by specifying both the act of construction and the component steps through which knowers pass as they acquire knowledge. But, while approaches suggested by cognitive science supplement Piaget by awakening researchers to the role of auxiliary factors…

  3. Building Safe Concurrency Abstractions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Ole Lehrmann

    2014-01-01

    Concurrent object-oriented programming in Beta is based on semaphores and coroutines and the ability to define high-level concurrency abstractions like monitors, and rendezvous-based communication, and their associated schedulers. The coroutine mechanism of SIMULA has been generalized into the no...

  4. Poster Session- Extended Abstracts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jack D. Alexander III; Jean Findley; Brenda K. Kury; Jan L. Beyers; Douglas S. Cram; Terrell T. Baker; Jon C. Boren; Carl Edminster; Sue A. Ferguson; Steven McKay; David Nagel; Trent Piepho; Miriam Rorig; Casey Anderson; Jeanne Hoadley; Paulette L. Ford; Mark C. Andersen; Ed L. Fredrickson; Joe Truett; Gary W. Roemer; Brenda K. Kury; Jennifer Vollmer; Christine L. May; Danny C. Lee; James P. Menakis; Robert E. Keane; Zhi-Liang Zhu; Carol Miller; Brett Davis; Katharine Gray; Ken Mix; William P. Kuvlesky Jr.; D. Lynn Drawe; Marcia G. Narog; Roger D. Ottmar; Robert E. Vihnanek; Clinton S. Wright; Timothy E. Paysen; Burton K. Pendleton; Rosemary L. Pendleton; Carleton S. White; John Rogan; Doug Stow; Janet Franklin; Jennifer Miller; Lisa Levien; Chris Fischer; Emma Underwood; Robert Klinger; Peggy Moore; Clinton S. Wright

    2008-01-01

    Titles found within Poster Session-Extended Abstracts include:Assessment of emergency fire rehabilitation of four fires from the 2000 fire season on the Vale, Oregon, BLM district: review of the density sampling materials and methods: p. 329 Growth of regreen, seeded for erosion control, in the...

  5. Abstract Introduction Materials & Methods

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    plzfg

    Abstract. Oral administration to male rats of 200mg kg-1 body weight of an extract of Calendula officinalis flowers every day for 60 days did not cause loss of body weight, but decreased significantly the weight of the testis, epididymis, seminal vesicle and ventral prostate. Sperm motility as well as sperm density were reduced ...

  6. Testing abstract behavioral specifications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.Y.H. Wong; R. Bubel (Richard); F.S. de Boer (Frank); C.P.T. de Gouw (Stijn); M. Gómez-Zamalloa; R Haehnle; K. Meinke; M.A. Sindhu

    2015-01-01

    htmlabstractWe present a range of testing techniques for the Abstract Behavioral Specification (ABS) language and apply them to an industrial case study. ABS is a formal modeling language for highly variable, concurrent, component-based systems. The nature of these systems makes them susceptible to

  7. Impredicative concurrent abstract predicates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svendsen, Kasper; Birkedal, Lars

    2014-01-01

    We present impredicative concurrent abstract predicates { iCAP { a program logic for modular reasoning about concurrent, higher- order, reentrant, imperative code. Building on earlier work, iCAP uses protocols to reason about shared mutable state. A key novel feature of iCAP is the ability to dene...

  8. Leadership Abstracts, 2002.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Cynthia, Ed.; Milliron, Mark David, Ed.

    2002-01-01

    This 2002 volume of Leadership Abstracts contains issue numbers 1-12. Articles include: (1) "Skills Certification and Workforce Development: Partnering with Industry and Ourselves," by Jeffrey A. Cantor; (2) "Starting Again: The Brookhaven Success College," by Alice W. Villadsen; (3) "From Digital Divide to Digital Democracy," by Gerardo E. de los…

  9. Circularity and Lambda Abstraction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Danvy, Olivier; Thiemann, Peter; Zerny, Ian

    2013-01-01

    unknowns from what is done to them, which we lambda-abstract with functions. The circular unknowns then become dead variables, which we eliminate. The result is a strict circu- lar program a la Pettorossi. This transformation is reversible: given a strict circular program a la Pettorossi, we introduce...

  10. Dynamic Flood Vulnerability Mapping with Google Earth Engine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tellman, B.; Kuhn, C.; Max, S. A.; Sullivan, J.

    2015-12-01

    Satellites capture the rate and character of environmental change from local to global levels, yet integrating these changes into flood exposure models can be cost or time prohibitive. We explore an approach to global flood modeling by leveraging satellite data with computing power in Google Earth Engine to dynamically map flood hazards. Our research harnesses satellite imagery in two main ways: first to generate a globally consistent flood inundation layer and second to dynamically model flood vulnerability. Accurate and relevant hazard maps rely on high quality observation data. Advances in publicly available spatial, spectral, and radar data together with cloud computing allow us to improve existing efforts to develop a comprehensive flood extent database to support model training and calibration. This talk will demonstrate the classification results of algorithms developed in Earth Engine designed to detect flood events by combining observations from MODIS, Landsat 8, and Sentinel-1. Our method to derive flood footprints increases the number, resolution, and precision of spatial observations for flood events both in the US, recorded in the NCDC (National Climatic Data Center) storm events database, and globally, as recorded events from the Colorado Flood Observatory database. This improved dataset can then be used to train machine learning models that relate spatial temporal flood observations to satellite derived spatial temporal predictor variables such as precipitation, antecedent soil moisture, and impervious surface. This modeling approach allows us to rapidly update models with each new flood observation, providing near real time vulnerability maps. We will share the water detection algorithms used with each satellite and discuss flood detection results with examples from Bihar, India and the state of New York. We will also demonstrate how these flood observations are used to train machine learning models and estimate flood exposure. The final stage of

  11. EBS Radionuclide Transport Abstraction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schreiner, R.

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this work is to develop the Engineered Barrier System (EBS) radionuclide transport abstraction model, as directed by a written development plan (CRWMS M and O 1999a). This abstraction is the conceptual model that will be used to determine the rate of release of radionuclides from the EBS to the unsaturated zone (UZ) in the total system performance assessment-license application (TSPA-LA). In particular, this model will be used to quantify the time-dependent radionuclide releases from a failed waste package (WP) and their subsequent transport through the EBS to the emplacement drift wall/UZ interface. The development of this conceptual model will allow Performance Assessment Operations (PAO) and its Engineered Barrier Performance Department to provide a more detailed and complete EBS flow and transport abstraction. The results from this conceptual model will allow PA0 to address portions of the key technical issues (KTIs) presented in three NRC Issue Resolution Status Reports (IRSRs): (1) the Evolution of the Near-Field Environment (ENFE), Revision 2 (NRC 1999a), (2) the Container Life and Source Term (CLST), Revision 2 (NRC 1999b), and (3) the Thermal Effects on Flow (TEF), Revision 1 (NRC 1998). The conceptual model for flow and transport in the EBS will be referred to as the ''EBS RT Abstraction'' in this analysis/modeling report (AMR). The scope of this abstraction and report is limited to flow and transport processes. More specifically, this AMR does not discuss elements of the TSPA-SR and TSPA-LA that relate to the EBS but are discussed in other AMRs. These elements include corrosion processes, radionuclide solubility limits, waste form dissolution rates and concentrations of colloidal particles that are generally represented as boundary conditions or input parameters for the EBS RT Abstraction. In effect, this AMR provides the algorithms for transporting radionuclides using the flow geometry and radionuclide concentrations determined by other

  12. The impact of bathymetry input on flood simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khanam, M.; Cohen, S.

    2017-12-01

    Flood prediction and mitigation systems are inevitable for improving public safety and community resilience all over the worldwide. Hydraulic simulations of flood events are becoming an increasingly efficient tool for studying and predicting flood events and susceptibility. A consistent limitation of hydraulic simulations of riverine dynamics is the lack of information about river bathymetry as most terrain data record water surface elevation. The impact of this limitation on the accuracy on hydraulic simulations of flood has not been well studies over a large range of flood magnitude and modeling frameworks. Advancing our understanding of this topic is timely given emerging national and global efforts for developing automated flood predictions systems (e.g. NOAA National Water Center). Here we study the response of flood simulation to the incorporation of different bathymetry and floodplain surveillance source. Different hydraulic models are compared, Mike-Flood, a 2D hydrodynamic model, and GSSHA, a hydrology/hydraulics model. We test a hypothesis that the impact of inclusion/exclusion of bathymetry data on hydraulic model results will vary in its magnitude as a function of river size. This will allow researcher and stake holders more accurate predictions of flood events providing useful information that will help local communities in a vulnerable flood zone to mitigate flood hazards. Also, it will help to evaluate the accuracy and efficiency of different modeling frameworks and gage their dependency on detailed bathymetry input data.

  13. GAS EXCHANGE IN YOUNG PLANTS OF Tabebuia aurea(Bignoniaceae Juss.) SUBJECTED TO FLOODING STRESS1

    OpenAIRE

    Oliveira, Ademir Kleber Morbeck; Gualtieri, Sônia Cristina Juliano

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT The Paratudo (Tabebuia aurea) is a species occurring in the Pantanal of Miranda, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, an area characterized by seasonal flooding. To evaluate the tolerance of this plant to flooding, plants aged four months were grown in flooded soil and in non-flooded soil (control group). Stomatal conductance, transpiration and CO2 assimilation were measured during the stress (48 days) and recovery (11 days) period, totalling 59 days. The values of stomatal conductance of the...

  14. DEGRO 2017. Abstracts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2017-06-15

    The volume includes abstracts of the Annual DEGRO Meeting 2017 covering lectures and poster sessions with the following issues: lymphoma, biology, physics, radioimmunotherapy, sarcomas and rare tumors, prostate carcinoma, lung tumors, benign lesions and new media, mamma carcinoma, gastrointestinal tumors, quality of life, care science and quality assurance, high-technology methods and palliative situation, head-and-neck tumors, brain tumors, central nervous system metastases, guidelines, radiation sensitivity, radiotherapy, radioimmunotherapy.

  15. The deleuzian abstract machines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Werner Petersen, Erik

    2005-01-01

    in emphasis from the three syntheses to mappings and rhizomatic diagrams that cut across semiotics or “blow apart regimes of signs”. The aim here is the absolute deterritorialization. Deleuze has shown how abstract machines operate in the philosophy of Foucault, the literature of Proust and Kafka......, and the painting of Bacon. We will finish our presentation by showing how these machines apply to architecture....

  16. SPR 2014. Abstracts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2014-05-15

    The proceedings of the SPR 2014 meeting include abstracts on the following topics: Body imaging techniques: practical advice for clinic work; thoracic imaging: focus on the lungs; gastrointestinal imaging: focus on the pancreas and bowel; genitourinary imaging: focus on gonadal radiology; muscoskeletal imaging; focus on oncology; child abuse and nor child abuse: focus on radiography; impact of NMR and CT imaging on management of CHD; education and communication: art and practice in pediatric radiology.

  17. SPR 2014. Abstracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2014-01-01

    The proceedings of the SPR 2014 meeting include abstracts on the following topics: Body imaging techniques: practical advice for clinic work; thoracic imaging: focus on the lungs; gastrointestinal imaging: focus on the pancreas and bowel; genitourinary imaging: focus on gonadal radiology; muscoskeletal imaging; focus on oncology; child abuse and nor child abuse: focus on radiography; impact of NMR and CT imaging on management of CHD; education and communication: art and practice in pediatric radiology.

  18. WWNPQFT-2011 - Abstracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bianchi, E.; Bender, C.; Culetu, H.; Fried, H.; Grossmann, A.; Hofmann, R.; Le Bellac, M.; Martinetti, P.; Muller, B.; Patras, F.; Raffaeli, B.; Vitting Andersen, J.

    2013-01-01

    The object of this workshop is to consolidate and publicize new efforts in non-perturbative field theories. This year the presentations deal with quantum gravity, non-commutative geometry, fat-tailed wave-functions, strongly coupled field theories, space-times two time-like dimensions, and multiplicative renormalization. A presentation is dedicated to the construction of a nucleon-nucleon potential from an analytical, non-perturbative gauge invariant QCD. This document gathers the abstracts of the presentations

  19. EBS Radionuclide Transport Abstraction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    J. Prouty

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to develop and analyze the engineered barrier system (EBS) radionuclide transport abstraction model, consistent with Level I and Level II model validation, as identified in Technical Work Plan for: Near-Field Environment and Transport: Engineered Barrier System: Radionuclide Transport Abstraction Model Report Integration (BSC 2005 [DIRS 173617]). The EBS radionuclide transport abstraction (or EBS RT Abstraction) is the conceptual model used in the total system performance assessment (TSPA) to determine the rate of radionuclide releases from the EBS to the unsaturated zone (UZ). The EBS RT Abstraction conceptual model consists of two main components: a flow model and a transport model. Both models are developed mathematically from first principles in order to show explicitly what assumptions, simplifications, and approximations are incorporated into the models used in the TSPA. The flow model defines the pathways for water flow in the EBS and specifies how the flow rate is computed in each pathway. Input to this model includes the seepage flux into a drift. The seepage flux is potentially split by the drip shield, with some (or all) of the flux being diverted by the drip shield and some passing through breaches in the drip shield that might result from corrosion or seismic damage. The flux through drip shield breaches is potentially split by the waste package, with some (or all) of the flux being diverted by the waste package and some passing through waste package breaches that might result from corrosion or seismic damage. Neither the drip shield nor the waste package survives an igneous intrusion, so the flux splitting submodel is not used in the igneous scenario class. The flow model is validated in an independent model validation technical review. The drip shield and waste package flux splitting algorithms are developed and validated using experimental data. The transport model considers advective transport and diffusive transport

  20. EBS Radionuclide Transport Abstraction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    J. Prouty

    2006-07-14

    The purpose of this report is to develop and analyze the engineered barrier system (EBS) radionuclide transport abstraction model, consistent with Level I and Level II model validation, as identified in Technical Work Plan for: Near-Field Environment and Transport: Engineered Barrier System: Radionuclide Transport Abstraction Model Report Integration (BSC 2005 [DIRS 173617]). The EBS radionuclide transport abstraction (or EBS RT Abstraction) is the conceptual model used in the total system performance assessment (TSPA) to determine the rate of radionuclide releases from the EBS to the unsaturated zone (UZ). The EBS RT Abstraction conceptual model consists of two main components: a flow model and a transport model. Both models are developed mathematically from first principles in order to show explicitly what assumptions, simplifications, and approximations are incorporated into the models used in the TSPA. The flow model defines the pathways for water flow in the EBS and specifies how the flow rate is computed in each pathway. Input to this model includes the seepage flux into a drift. The seepage flux is potentially split by the drip shield, with some (or all) of the flux being diverted by the drip shield and some passing through breaches in the drip shield that might result from corrosion or seismic damage. The flux through drip shield breaches is potentially split by the waste package, with some (or all) of the flux being diverted by the waste package and some passing through waste package breaches that might result from corrosion or seismic damage. Neither the drip shield nor the waste package survives an igneous intrusion, so the flux splitting submodel is not used in the igneous scenario class. The flow model is validated in an independent model validation technical review. The drip shield and waste package flux splitting algorithms are developed and validated using experimental data. The transport model considers advective transport and diffusive transport

  1. Reliability analysis of flood defence systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steenbergen, H.M.G.M.; Lassing, B.L.; Vrouwenvelder, A.C.W.M.; Waarts, P.H.

    2004-01-01

    In recent years an advanced program for the reliability analysis of flood defence systems has been under development. This paper describes the global data requirements for the application and the setup of the models. The analysis generates the probability of system failure and the contribution of

  2. Program and abstracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1978-01-01

    This volume contains the program and abstracts of the conference. The following topics are included: metal vapor molecular lasers, magnetohydrodynamics, rare gas halide and nuclear pumped lasers, transfer mechanisms in arcs, kinetic processes in rare gas halide lasers, arcs and flows, XeF kinetics and lasers, fundamental processes in excimer lasers, electrode effects and vacuum arcs, electron and ion transport, ion interactions and mobilities, glow discharges, diagnostics and afterglows, dissociative recombination, electron ionization and excitation, rare gas excimers and group VI lasers, breakdown, novel laser pumping techniques, electrode-related discharge phenomena, photon interactions, attachment, plasma chemistry and infrared lasers, electron scattering, and reactions of excited species

  3. IPR 2016. Abstracts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2016-05-15

    The volume on the meeting of pediatric radiology includes abstract on the following issues: chest, cardiovascular system, neuroradiology, CT radiation DRs (diagnostic reference levels) and dose reporting guidelines, genitourinary imaging, gastrointestinal radiology, oncology an nuclear medicine, whole body imaging, fetal/neonates imaging, child abuse, oncology and hybrid imaging, value added imaging, muscoskeletal imaging, dose and radiation safety, imaging children - immobilization and distraction techniques, information - education - QI and healthcare policy, ALARA, the knowledge skills and competences for a technologist/radiographer in pediatric radiology, full exploitation of new technological features in pediatric CT, image quality issues in pediatrics, abdominal imaging, interventional radiology, MR contrast agents, tumor - mass imaging, cardiothoracic imaging, ultrasonography.

  4. SPR 2017. Abstracts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2017-05-15

    The conference proceedings SPR 2017 include abstracts on the following issues: gastrointestinal radiography - inflammatory bowel diseases, cardiovascular CTA, general muscoskeletal radiology, muscoskeletal congenital development diseases, general pediatric radiology - chest, muscoskeletal imaging - marrow and infectious disorders, state-of-the-art body MR imaging, practical pediatric sonography, quality and professionalism, CT imaging in congenital heart diseases, radiographic courses, body MT techniques, contrast enhanced ultrasound, machine learning, forensic imaging, the radiation dos conundrum - reconciling imaging, imagining and managing, the practice of radiology, interventional radiology, neuroradiology, PET/MR.

  5. Beyond the abstractions?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olesen, Henning Salling

    2006-01-01

      The anniversary of the International Journal of Lifelong Education takes place in the middle of a conceptual landslide from lifelong education to lifelong learning. Contemporary discourses of lifelong learning etc are however abstractions behind which new functions and agendas for adult education...... are set. The ideological discourse of recent policies seems to neglect the fact that history and resources for lifelong learning are different across Europe, and also neglects the multiplicity of adult learners. Instead of refusing the new agendas, however, adult education research should try to dissolve...... learning. Adult education research must fulfil it's potential conversion from normative philosophy to critical and empirical social science....

  6. Parameterized Dataflow (Extended Abstract

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dominic Duggan

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Dataflow networks have application in various forms of stream processing, for example for parallel processing of multimedia data. The description of dataflow graphs, including their firing behavior, is typically non-compositional and not amenable to separate compilation. This article considers a dataflow language with a type and effect system that captures the firing behavior of actors. This system allows definitions to abstract over actor firing rates, supporting the definition and safe composition of actor definitions where firing rates are not instantiated until a dataflow graph is launched.

  7. ABSTRACTION OF DRIFT SEEPAGE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, Michael L.

    2001-01-01

    Drift seepage refers to flow of liquid water into repository emplacement drifts, where it can potentially contribute to degradation of the engineered systems and release and transport of radionuclides within the drifts. Because of these important effects, seepage into emplacement drifts is listed as a ''principal factor for the postclosure safety case'' in the screening criteria for grading of data in Attachment 1 of AP-3.15Q, Rev. 2, ''Managing Technical Product Inputs''. Abstraction refers to distillation of the essential components of a process model into a form suitable for use in total-system performance assessment (TSPA). Thus, the purpose of this analysis/model is to put the information generated by the seepage process modeling in a form appropriate for use in the TSPA for the Site Recommendation. This report also supports the Unsaturated-Zone Flow and Transport Process Model Report. The scope of the work is discussed below. This analysis/model is governed by the ''Technical Work Plan for Unsaturated Zone Flow and Transport Process Model Report'' (CRWMS MandO 2000a). Details of this activity are in Addendum A of the technical work plan. The original Work Direction and Planning Document is included as Attachment 7 of Addendum A. Note that the Work Direction and Planning Document contains tasks identified for both Performance Assessment Operations (PAO) and Natural Environment Program Operations (NEPO). Only the PAO tasks are documented here. The planning for the NEPO activities is now in Addendum D of the same technical work plan and the work is documented in a separate report (CRWMS MandO 2000b). The Project has been reorganized since the document was written. The responsible organizations in the new structure are the Performance Assessment Department and the Unsaturated Zone Department, respectively. The work plan for the seepage abstraction calls for determining an appropriate abstraction methodology, determining uncertainties in seepage, and providing

  8. ORGANIZED SYMPOSIA: ABSTRACTS

    OpenAIRE

    Anonymous

    2001-01-01

    Agricultural Economics Via Distance Education: Challenges and Opportunities, Allen F. Wysocki; Comparison of Agriculture and Business Practices in Southern United States and Europe and Ideas for Collaboration, Wes Harrison; Responses to the Farm Family Financial Crisis, Steve Isaacs; Global Economic Turmoil and Prospects for Recovery: Impacts, Issues and Prospects for Southern Agriculture, Mary Marchant; USDA/EPA Unified National Strategy for AFO's -Status and Implications for Southern Produc...

  9. Flood risk change in some European, African and Asian catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreibich, Heidi

    2017-04-01

    In light of the expected increase of flood risk in large parts of the world due to climate change and globally increasing exposure, efficient integrated flood risk management needs to be implemented. Societies learn from floods, and consequently improve their risk management. Such learning can occur through 'focusing events', i.e. events that provide a sudden, strong push for action. For example, the 1953 North Sea flood triggered the Delta Works in The Netherlands and the construction of the Thames Barrier. We show how societies have learnt from focusing events in river systems, by a semi-quantitative assessment of eight paired flood events around the world, i.e. consecutive floods that occurred in the same catchments, with the second flood causing significantly lower damage. We unravel the main mechanisms underlying these eight success stories of risk reduction. Across all case studies, we find that lower damage caused by the second event was mainly due to significant reductions in vulnerability. The role of changes in exposure is less apparent; positive and negative changes are reported. In some cases, significant investments in flood protection between the floods have played a large role in exposure and damage reduction. Reduction of vulnerability seems to be a key for better risk reduction via integrated flood risk management. Thus, we need to redouble efforts to improve our understanding of vulnerability.

  10. Modeling flooding patterns in the Kafue Flats, Zambia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, Philipp; Kinzelbach, Wolfgang

    2010-05-01

    The Kafue Flats is one of the most important wetlands in Zambia. In the early 70's the Kafue Gorge reservoir was built mainly for hydropower production not far downstream the outlet of the Kafue Flats. Only a few years later a dam was constructed upstream the Flats to extend the limited storage of Kafue Gorge. Besides its ecological value the Kafue Flats are also important economically. Around 700 000 people are dependent mainly on fisheries and flood recession agriculture. An increasing number of large irrigation schemes are drawing water from the Kafue river along the wetland. Floodplains in semi-arid and arid areas are often the only source of water supply available throughout the year. They provide numerous economical and ecological services of tremendous value. The ecological uniqueness of many wetlands results largely from a strong seasonality of flooding. As the pressure on water resources grows these natural seasonal patterns are often altered due to water abstractions or the construction of dams. Many efforts have been taken to restore more natural flooding patterns. To assess both, the effects of altered flow regimes and of restoration efforts, a hydrological model reproducing the dynamics of the flooding is required. However, in many cases hydrological modeling of these floodplains is often hampered by the poor availability of data. Data gathering is also limited by the large extent and the limited accessibility of the wetlands. Therefore the application of remote sensing techniques is an attractive approach. The model presented in this study is based on a relatively simple approach which was initially designed for the Okavango Delta. The model is based on the widely used software MODFLOW. However, due to a different environment and technical advances of the software there are some significant differences between the Okavango Delta model and the model presented hereafter. The model is based on MODFLOW 2005 and basically consists of two layers: a

  11. EBS Radionuclide Transport Abstraction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    J.D. Schreiber

    2005-08-25

    The purpose of this report is to develop and analyze the engineered barrier system (EBS) radionuclide transport abstraction model, consistent with Level I and Level II model validation, as identified in ''Technical Work Plan for: Near-Field Environment and Transport: Engineered Barrier System: Radionuclide Transport Abstraction Model Report Integration'' (BSC 2005 [DIRS 173617]). The EBS radionuclide transport abstraction (or EBS RT Abstraction) is the conceptual model used in the total system performance assessment for the license application (TSPA-LA) to determine the rate of radionuclide releases from the EBS to the unsaturated zone (UZ). The EBS RT Abstraction conceptual model consists of two main components: a flow model and a transport model. Both models are developed mathematically from first principles in order to show explicitly what assumptions, simplifications, and approximations are incorporated into the models used in the TSPA-LA. The flow model defines the pathways for water flow in the EBS and specifies how the flow rate is computed in each pathway. Input to this model includes the seepage flux into a drift. The seepage flux is potentially split by the drip shield, with some (or all) of the flux being diverted by the drip shield and some passing through breaches in the drip shield that might result from corrosion or seismic damage. The flux through drip shield breaches is potentially split by the waste package, with some (or all) of the flux being diverted by the waste package and some passing through waste package breaches that might result from corrosion or seismic damage. Neither the drip shield nor the waste package survives an igneous intrusion, so the flux splitting submodel is not used in the igneous scenario class. The flow model is validated in an independent model validation technical review. The drip shield and waste package flux splitting algorithms are developed and validated using experimental data. The transport

  12. EBS Radionuclide Transport Abstraction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    J.D. Schreiber

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to develop and analyze the engineered barrier system (EBS) radionuclide transport abstraction model, consistent with Level I and Level II model validation, as identified in ''Technical Work Plan for: Near-Field Environment and Transport: Engineered Barrier System: Radionuclide Transport Abstraction Model Report Integration'' (BSC 2005 [DIRS 173617]). The EBS radionuclide transport abstraction (or EBS RT Abstraction) is the conceptual model used in the total system performance assessment for the license application (TSPA-LA) to determine the rate of radionuclide releases from the EBS to the unsaturated zone (UZ). The EBS RT Abstraction conceptual model consists of two main components: a flow model and a transport model. Both models are developed mathematically from first principles in order to show explicitly what assumptions, simplifications, and approximations are incorporated into the models used in the TSPA-LA. The flow model defines the pathways for water flow in the EBS and specifies how the flow rate is computed in each pathway. Input to this model includes the seepage flux into a drift. The seepage flux is potentially split by the drip shield, with some (or all) of the flux being diverted by the drip shield and some passing through breaches in the drip shield that might result from corrosion or seismic damage. The flux through drip shield breaches is potentially split by the waste package, with some (or all) of the flux being diverted by the waste package and some passing through waste package breaches that might result from corrosion or seismic damage. Neither the drip shield nor the waste package survives an igneous intrusion, so the flux splitting submodel is not used in the igneous scenario class. The flow model is validated in an independent model validation technical review. The drip shield and waste package flux splitting algorithms are developed and validated using experimental data. The transport model considers

  13. An empirical assessment of which inland floods can be managed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mogollón, Beatriz; Frimpong, Emmanuel A; Hoegh, Andrew B; Angermeier, Paul L

    2016-02-01

    Riverine flooding is a significant global issue. Although it is well documented that the influence of landscape structure on floods decreases as flood size increases, studies that define a threshold flood-return period, above which landscape features such as topography, land cover and impoundments can curtail floods, are lacking. Further, the relative influences of natural versus built features on floods is poorly understood. Assumptions about the types of floods that can be managed have considerable implications for the cost-effectiveness of decisions to invest in transforming land cover (e.g., reforestation) and in constructing structures (e.g., storm-water ponds) to control floods. This study defines parameters of floods for which changes in landscape structure can have an impact. We compare nine flood-return periods across 31 watersheds with widely varying topography and land cover in the southeastern United States, using long-term hydrologic records (≥20 years). We also assess the effects of built flow-regulating features (best management practices and artificial water bodies) on selected flood metrics across urban watersheds. We show that landscape features affect magnitude and duration of only those floods with return periods ≤10 years, which suggests that larger floods cannot be managed effectively by manipulating landscape structure. Overall, urban watersheds exhibited larger (270 m(3)/s) but quicker (0.41 days) floods than non-urban watersheds (50 m(3)/s and 1.5 days). However, urban watersheds with more flow-regulating features had lower flood magnitudes (154 m(3)/s), but similar flood durations (0.55 days), compared to urban watersheds with fewer flow-regulating features (360 m(3)/s and 0.23 days). Our analysis provides insight into the magnitude, duration and count of floods that can be curtailed by landscape structure and its management. Our findings are relevant to other areas with similar climate, topography, and land use, and can help

  14. Linking events, science and media for flood and drought management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, M.; Wei, Y.; Zheng, H.; Zhao, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Throughout history, floods and droughts have been closely related to the development of human riparian civilization. The socio-economic damage caused by floods/droughts appears to be on the rise and the frequency of floods/droughts increases due to global climate change. In this paper, we take a fresh perspective to examine the (dis)connection between events (floods and droughts), research papers and media reports in globally 42 river basins between 1990 and 2012 for better solutions in floods and droughts management. We collected hydrological data from NOAA/ESPL Physical Sciences Division (PSD) and CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), all relevant scientific papers from Web of Science (WOS) and media records from Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) during the study period, presented the temporal variability at annual level of these three groups of data, and analysed the (connection) among these three groups of data in typical river basins. We found that 1) the number of flood related reports on both media and research is much more than those on droughts; 2) the concerns of media reports just focused on partial topics (death, severity and damage) and partial catchments (Mediterranean Sea and Nile River); 3) the scientific contribution on floods and droughts were limited within some river basins such as Nile River Basin, Parana River Basin, Savannah River Basin and Murray-Darling River Basin; 4) the scientific contribution on floods and droughts were limited within only a few of disciplines such as Geology, Environmental Sciences & Ecology, Agriculture, Engineering and Forestry. It is recommended that multiple disciplinary contribution and collaboration should be promoted to achieve comprehensive flood/drought management, and science and media should interactively play their valuable roles and in flood/drought issues. Keywords: Floods, droughts, events, science, media, flood and drought management

  15. Abstract: Implementing Infection Control Measures in Neonatology ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Abstract. Background Neonatal infection is a primary cause of morbidity and mortality globally. Objective The project's objective is to facilitate quality improvement by reduction of hospital-acquired infection (HAI) in hospitalized neonates. Methods Current infection control practices were surveyed and three main areas were ...

  16. Promoting Economic Security through Information Technology Abstract

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PROF. O. E. OSUAGWU

    2013-12-01

    Dec 1, 2013 ... Abstract. The problem of economic insecurity is a global threat to national security. In Nigeria today, we have witness a lot of national security issues that risks the continued existence of the country as one indivisible political entity with many calling for disintegration. Hitherto, many terrorist networks have ...

  17. Effectiveness of Water Infrastructure for River Flood Management: Part 2 – Flood Risk Assessment and Its Changes in Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Kwak

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available A case study of Bangladesh presents a methodological possibility based on a global approach for assessing river flood risk and its changes considering flood hazard, exposure, basic vulnerability and coping capacity. This study consists of two parts in the issue of flood change: hazard assessment (Part 1 and risk assessment (Part 2. In Part 1, a hazard modeling technology was introduced and applied to the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM basin to quantify the change of 50- and 100-year flood hazards in Bangladesh under the present (1979–2003 and future (2075–2099 climates. Part 2 focuses on estimating nationwide flood risk in terms of affected people and rice crop damage due to a 50-year flood hazard identified in Part 1, and quantifying flood risk changes between the presence and absence of existing water infrastructure (i.e., embankments. To assess flood risk in terms of rice crop damage, rice paddy fields were extracted and flood stage-damage curves were created for maximum risk scenarios as a demonstration of risk change in the present and future climates. The preliminary results in Bangladesh show that a tendency of flood risk change strongly depends on the temporal and spatial dynamics of exposure and vulnerability such as distributed population and effectiveness of water infrastructure, which suggests that the proposed methodology is applicable anywhere in the world.

  18. IEEE conference record -- Abstracts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1994-01-01

    This conference covers the following areas: computational plasma physics; vacuum electronic; basic phenomena in fully ionized plasmas; plasma, electron, and ion sources; environmental/energy issues in plasma science; space plasmas; plasma processing; ball lightning/spherical plasma configurations; plasma processing; fast wave devices; magnetic fusion; basic phenomena in partially ionized plasma; dense plasma focus; plasma diagnostics; basic phenomena in weakly ionized gases; fast opening switches; MHD; fast z-pinches and x-ray lasers; intense ion and electron beams; laser-produced plasmas; microwave plasma interactions; EM and ETH launchers; solid state plasmas and switches; intense beam microwaves; and plasmas for lighting. Separate abstracts were prepared for 416 papers in this conference.

  19. IEEE conference record -- Abstracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-01-01

    This conference covers the following areas: computational plasma physics; vacuum electronic; basic phenomena in fully ionized plasmas; plasma, electron, and ion sources; environmental/energy issues in plasma science; space plasmas; plasma processing; ball lightning/spherical plasma configurations; plasma processing; fast wave devices; magnetic fusion; basic phenomena in partially ionized plasma; dense plasma focus; plasma diagnostics; basic phenomena in weakly ionized gases; fast opening switches; MHD; fast z-pinches and x-ray lasers; intense ion and electron beams; laser-produced plasmas; microwave plasma interactions; EM and ETH launchers; solid state plasmas and switches; intense beam microwaves; and plasmas for lighting. Separate abstracts were prepared for 416 papers in this conference

  20. Problems in abstract algebra

    CERN Document Server

    Wadsworth, A R

    2017-01-01

    This is a book of problems in abstract algebra for strong undergraduates or beginning graduate students. It can be used as a supplement to a course or for self-study. The book provides more variety and more challenging problems than are found in most algebra textbooks. It is intended for students wanting to enrich their learning of mathematics by tackling problems that take some thought and effort to solve. The book contains problems on groups (including the Sylow Theorems, solvable groups, presentation of groups by generators and relations, and structure and duality for finite abelian groups); rings (including basic ideal theory and factorization in integral domains and Gauss's Theorem); linear algebra (emphasizing linear transformations, including canonical forms); and fields (including Galois theory). Hints to many problems are also included.

  1. ICENES 2007 Abstracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sahin, S.

    2007-01-01

    In this book Conference Program and Abstracts were included 13th International Conference on Emerging Nuclear Energy Systems which held between 03-08 June 2007 in Istanbul, Turkey. The main objective of International Conference series on Emerging Nuclear Energy Systems (ICENES) is to provide an international scientific and technical forum for scientists, engineers, industry leaders, policy makers, decision makers and young professionals who will shape future energy supply and technology , for a broad review and discussion of various advanced, innovative and non-conventional nuclear energy production systems. The main topics of 159 accepted papers from 35 countries are fusion science and technology, fission reactors, accelerator driven systems, transmutation, laser in nuclear technology, radiation shielding, nuclear reactions, hydrogen energy, solar energy, low energy physics and societal issues

  2. Flood action plans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slopek, R.J.

    1995-01-01

    Safe operating procedures developed by TransAlta Utilities for dealing with flooding, resulting from upstream dam failures or extreme rainfalls, were presented. Several operating curves developed by Monenco AGRA were described, among them the No Overtopping Curve (NOC), the Safe Filling Curve (SFC), the No Spill Curve (NSC) and the Guaranteed Fill Curve (GFC). The concept of an operational comfort zone was developed and defined. A flood action plan for all operating staff was created as a guide in case of a flooding incident. Staging of a flood action plan workshop was described. Dam break scenarios pertinent to the Bow River were developed for subsequent incorporation into a Flood Action Plan Manual. Evaluation of the technical presentations made during workshops were found them to have been effective in providing operating staff with a better understanding of the procedures that they would perform in an emergency. 8 figs

  3. Abstract: Body Work

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Otto, Lene

    2012-01-01

    social and age groups are regarded? In what ways has different practices limited or extended its involvement in the body? Has work been organized hierarchically in relation to the degree of direct body work? What happened when body work became mediated by machines and technology? Has body work as forms......This panel will explore the usefulness of the term ‘body work’ in cultural history. Body work is understood as work focusing on the bodies of others as component in a range of occupations in health and social care, as well as in unpaid work in the family. How can the notion of body work inform...... cultural history of health and illness whether through a micro-social focus on the intercorporeal aspects of work in health and social care, or through clarifying our understanding of the times and spaces of work, or through highlighting the relationship between mundane body work and global processes...

  4. Book of abstracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-01-01

    The Philippine Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC), now the Philippine Nuclear Research Institute (PNRI), organized the 1st Philippine Nuclear Congress in 1976 to present the progress of R and D, nuclear S and T services in the applications of nuclear energy, and the nuclear power program. This year 1996 marks the centennial of the discovery of radioactivity and the organizing committee finds it relevant to convene the 2nd Philippine Nuclear Congress with the objectives to review the global/regional/national scenarios in nuclear energy applications; to provide a forum and discussions of the issues and concerns on public acceptance; and to propose policy recommendations to the government towards the role of nuclear science and technology in the 21st century

  5. Abstract: Body Work

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Otto, Lene

    2012-01-01

    This panel will explore the usefulness of the term ‘body work’ in cultural history. Body work is understood as work focusing on the bodies of others as component in a range of occupations in health and social care, as well as in unpaid work in the family. How can the notion of body work inform...... cultural history of health and illness whether through a micro-social focus on the intercorporeal aspects of work in health and social care, or through clarifying our understanding of the times and spaces of work, or through highlighting the relationship between mundane body work and global processes....... The British sociologist Julia Twigg has introduced and explored the term `bodywork', most recently in Body Work in Health and Social Care - Critical Themes, New Agendas (2011). She extends the term body work from applying to the work that individuals undertake on their own bodies, often as part of regimens...

  6. Distillation Column Flooding Predictor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    George E. Dzyacky

    2010-11-23

    The Flooding Predictor™ is a patented advanced control technology proven in research at the Separations Research Program, University of Texas at Austin, to increase distillation column throughput by over 6%, while also increasing energy efficiency by 10%. The research was conducted under a U. S. Department of Energy Cooperative Agreement awarded to George Dzyacky of 2ndpoint, LLC. The Flooding Predictor™ works by detecting the incipient flood point and controlling the column closer to its actual hydraulic limit than historical practices have allowed. Further, the technology uses existing column instrumentation, meaning no additional refining infrastructure is required. Refiners often push distillation columns to maximize throughput, improve separation, or simply to achieve day-to-day optimization. Attempting to achieve such operating objectives is a tricky undertaking that can result in flooding. Operators and advanced control strategies alike rely on the conventional use of delta-pressure instrumentation to approximate the column’s approach to flood. But column delta-pressure is more an inference of the column’s approach to flood than it is an actual measurement of it. As a consequence, delta pressure limits are established conservatively in order to operate in a regime where the column is never expected to flood. As a result, there is much “left on the table” when operating in such a regime, i.e. the capacity difference between controlling the column to an upper delta-pressure limit and controlling it to the actual hydraulic limit. The Flooding Predictor™, an innovative pattern recognition technology, controls columns at their actual hydraulic limit, which research shows leads to a throughput increase of over 6%. Controlling closer to the hydraulic limit also permits operation in a sweet spot of increased energy-efficiency. In this region of increased column loading, the Flooding Predictor is able to exploit the benefits of higher liquid

  7. Water dependency and water exploitation at global scale as indicators of water security

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Roo, A. P. J.; Beck, H.; Burek, P.; Bernard, B.

    2015-12-01

    A water dependency index has been developed indicating the dependency of water consumption from upstream sources of water, sometimes across (multiple) national border. This index is calculated at global scale using the 0.1 global LISFLOOD hydrological modelling system forced by WFDEI meteorological data for the timeframe 1979-2012. The global LISFLOOD model simulates the most important hydrological processes, as well as water abstraction and consumption from various sectors, and flood routing, at daily scale, with sub-timesteps for routing and subgrid parameterization related to elevation and landuse. The model contains also options for water allocation, to allow preferences of water use for particular sectors in water scarce periods. LISFLOOD is also used for the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS), the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS), continental scale climate change impact studies on floods and droughts. The water dependency indicator is calculated on a monthly basis, and various annual and multiannual indicators are derived from it. In this study, the indicator will be compared against water security areas known from other studies. Other indicators calculated are the Water Exploitation Index (WEI+), which is a commonly use water security indicator in Europe, and freshwater resources per capita indicators at regional, national and river basin scale. Several climate scnearios are run to indicate future trends in water security.

  8. Exoplanets and Multiverses (Abstract)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trimble, V.

    2016-12-01

    (Abstract only) To the ancients, the Earth was the Universe, of a size to be crossed by a god in a day, by boat or chariot, and by humans in a lifetime. Thus an exoplanet would have been a multiverse. The ideas gradually separated over centuries, with gradual acceptance of a sun-centered solar system, the stars as suns likely to have their own planets, other galaxies beyond the Milky Way, and so forth. And whenever the community divided between "just one' of anything versus "many," the "manies" have won. Discoveries beginning in 1991 and 1995 have gradually led to a battalion or two of planets orbiting other stars, very few like our own little family, and to moderately serious consideration of even larger numbers of other universes, again very few like our own. I'm betting, however, on habitable (though not necessarily inhabited) exoplanets to be found, and habitable (though again not necessarily inhabited) universes. Only the former will yield pretty pictures.

  9. Book of Abstracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-06-01

    ANIMMA 2013 is the third of a series of conferences devoted to endorsing and promoting scientific and technical activities based on nuclear instrumentation and measurements. The main objective of ANIMMA conference is to unite the various scientific communities not only involved in nuclear instrumentation and measurements, but also in nuclear medicine and radiation. The conference is all about getting scientists, engineers and the industry to meet, exchange cultures and identify new scientific and technical prospects to help overcome both current and future unresolved issues. The conference provides scientists and engineers with a veritable opportunity to compare their latest research and development in different areas: physics, nuclear energy, nuclear fuel cycle, safety, security, future energies (GEN III+, GENIV, ITER, ...). The conference topics include instrumentation and measurement methods for: Fundamental physics; Fusion diagnostics and technology; Nuclear power reactors; Research reactors; Nuclear fuel cycle; Decommissioning, dismantling and remote handling; Safeguards, homeland security; Severe accident monitoring; Environmental and medical sciences; Education, training and outreach. This document brings together the abstracts of the presentations. Each presentation (full paper) is analysed separately and entered in INIS

  10. SENSE 2010, Abstracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lumsden, M.D.; Argyriou, D.N.; Inosov, D.

    2012-01-01

    The microscopic origin of unconventional superconductivity continues to attract the attention of the condensed matter community. Whereas rare-earth / actinide-based intermetallic and copper oxide-based high temperature superconductors are studied for more than twenty years, the iron-based superconductors have been in the focus of interest since their recent discovery. Inelastic neutron scattering experiments have been of particular importance for the understanding of the magnetic and superconducting properties of these compounds. With its 29 talks and 14 posters the workshop provided a forum for the 71 registered participants to review and discuss experimental achievements, recognize the observed synergy and differences as well as discuss theoretical efforts to identify the symmetry of the superconducting order parameter in addition to the coupling mechanisms of the Cooper pairs. The workshop covered different topics relevant for the study of unconventional superconductivity. Magnetization and lattice dynamics such as spin resonances, phonons, magnetic and other excitations as studied by spectroscopic methods were presented. Investigations of (doping, pressure and magnetic field dependent) phase diagrams, electronic states as well as vortex physics by the various diffraction techniques were also addressed. This document gathers only the abstracts of the papers. (authors)

  11. Automated Supernova Discovery (Abstract)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Post, R. S.

    2015-12-01

    (Abstract only) We are developing a system of robotic telescopes for automatic recognition of Supernovas as well as other transient events in collaboration with the Puckett Supernova Search Team. At the SAS2014 meeting, the discovery program, SNARE, was first described. Since then, it has been continuously improved to handle searches under a wide variety of atmospheric conditions. Currently, two telescopes are used to build a reference library while searching for PSN with a partial library. Since data is taken every night without clouds, we must deal with varying atmospheric and high background illumination from the moon. Software is configured to identify a PSN, reshoot for verification with options to change the run plan to acquire photometric or spectrographic data. The telescopes are 24-inch CDK24, with Alta U230 cameras, one in CA and one in NM. Images and run plans are sent between sites so the CA telescope can search while photometry is done in NM. Our goal is to find bright PSNs with magnitude 17.5 or less which is the limit of our planned spectroscopy. We present results from our first automated PSN discoveries and plans for PSN data acquisition.

  12. Stellar Presentations (Abstract)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, D.

    2015-12-01

    (Abstract only) The AAVSO is in the process of expanding its education, outreach and speakers bureau program. powerpoint presentations prepared for specific target audiences such as AAVSO members, educators, students, the general public, and Science Olympiad teams, coaches, event supervisors, and state directors will be available online for members to use. The presentations range from specific and general content relating to stellar evolution and variable stars to specific activities for a workshop environment. A presentation—even with a general topic—that works for high school students will not work for educators, Science Olympiad teams, or the general public. Each audience is unique and requires a different approach. The current environment necessitates presentations that are captivating for a younger generation that is embedded in a highly visual and sound-bite world of social media, twitter and U-Tube, and mobile devices. For educators, presentations and workshops for themselves and their students must support the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS), the Common Core Content Standards, and the Science Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) initiative. Current best practices for developing relevant and engaging powerpoint presentations to deliver information to a variety of targeted audiences will be presented along with several examples.

  13. Flood Management in California

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jay R. Lund

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available California’s development and success have been shaped by its ability to manage floods. This management has varied over the history of California’s economic and political development and continues in various forms today. California will always have flood problems. A range of options are available to aid in flood management problems and have been used over time. These options can be contrasted with flood management elsewhere and the types of options used to manage other types of hazards in California, such as earthquakes, wildfires, and droughts. In the future, flood management in California will require greater reliance on local funding and leadership, reflecting diminished federal and state funding, with more effective state and federal guidance. Effective flood management will also tend to integrate flood management with actions to achieve environmental and other water supply objectives, both to gain revenues from a broader range of beneficiaries as well as to make more efficient use of land and water in a state where both are often scarce.

  14. Abstraction of Drift Seepage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    J.T. Birkholzer

    2004-11-01

    This model report documents the abstraction of drift seepage, conducted to provide seepage-relevant parameters and their probability distributions for use in Total System Performance Assessment for License Application (TSPA-LA). Drift seepage refers to the flow of liquid water into waste emplacement drifts. Water that seeps into drifts may contact waste packages and potentially mobilize radionuclides, and may result in advective transport of radionuclides through breached waste packages [''Risk Information to Support Prioritization of Performance Assessment Models'' (BSC 2003 [DIRS 168796], Section 3.3.2)]. The unsaturated rock layers overlying and hosting the repository form a natural barrier that reduces the amount of water entering emplacement drifts by natural subsurface processes. For example, drift seepage is limited by the capillary barrier forming at the drift crown, which decreases or even eliminates water flow from the unsaturated fractured rock into the drift. During the first few hundred years after waste emplacement, when above-boiling rock temperatures will develop as a result of heat generated by the decay of the radioactive waste, vaporization of percolation water is an additional factor limiting seepage. Estimating the effectiveness of these natural barrier capabilities and predicting the amount of seepage into drifts is an important aspect of assessing the performance of the repository. The TSPA-LA therefore includes a seepage component that calculates the amount of seepage into drifts [''Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) Model/Analysis for the License Application'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 168504], Section 6.3.3.1)]. The TSPA-LA calculation is performed with a probabilistic approach that accounts for the spatial and temporal variability and inherent uncertainty of seepage-relevant properties and processes. Results are used for subsequent TSPA-LA components that may handle, for example, waste package

  15. Book of abstracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-01-01

    The document contains abstracts of 24 review papers, 24 invited papers, 24 oral contributions and 120 posters. 10 review papers summarize the status of laser fusion research and progress in high-power laser facilities in major world laboratories. Four papers review research programs (laser-matter interaction studies and X-ray source development) based on KrF laser systems. Other review papers discuss the problems of laser energy conversion into X-rays in laser-heated cavities, X-ray lasing at shorter wavelengths, optimization of targets for inertial fusion. Two review papers are devoted to light ion fusion. The subjects of most invited papers are special problems of current laser plasma research, such as hot electron generation, nonlinear resonance absorption, energy accumulation limits, pellet ignition, conversion of laser light into X-rays, high-pressure plasma generation. Three invited papers review laser plasma research in Czechoslovakia, Poland and Spain. One paper suggests a new method of producing muonic superdense matter. The remaining inivited papers deal with the progress in XUV lasers and with laser plasma applications for further laser development. Of the papers accepted for oral presentation 12 papers discuss various problems of laser-plasma interaction; 4 papers deal with laser targets, 4 papers with laser-initiated X-ray sources, 3 papers with the diagnostics of laser-produced plasma. The last oral contribution presents the main principles of the excimer laser theory. The largest group of posters is related to laser-plasma interaction and energy absorption problems, to laser-target interaction and various methods of laser plasma diagnostics. The other posters deal with plasma applications in laser development, plasma mirrors, Brillouin and Raman scattering, X-ray emission, harmonic generation, electron acceleration, production of high-Z plasmas and other related problems. (J.U.)

  16. Abstraction of Drift Seepage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    J.T. Birkholzer

    2004-01-01

    This model report documents the abstraction of drift seepage, conducted to provide seepage-relevant parameters and their probability distributions for use in Total System Performance Assessment for License Application (TSPA-LA). Drift seepage refers to the flow of liquid water into waste emplacement drifts. Water that seeps into drifts may contact waste packages and potentially mobilize radionuclides, and may result in advective transport of radionuclides through breached waste packages [''Risk Information to Support Prioritization of Performance Assessment Models'' (BSC 2003 [DIRS 168796], Section 3.3.2)]. The unsaturated rock layers overlying and hosting the repository form a natural barrier that reduces the amount of water entering emplacement drifts by natural subsurface processes. For example, drift seepage is limited by the capillary barrier forming at the drift crown, which decreases or even eliminates water flow from the unsaturated fractured rock into the drift. During the first few hundred years after waste emplacement, when above-boiling rock temperatures will develop as a result of heat generated by the decay of the radioactive waste, vaporization of percolation water is an additional factor limiting seepage. Estimating the effectiveness of these natural barrier capabilities and predicting the amount of seepage into drifts is an important aspect of assessing the performance of the repository. The TSPA-LA therefore includes a seepage component that calculates the amount of seepage into drifts [''Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) Model/Analysis for the License Application'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 168504], Section 6.3.3.1)]. The TSPA-LA calculation is performed with a probabilistic approach that accounts for the spatial and temporal variability and inherent uncertainty of seepage-relevant properties and processes. Results are used for subsequent TSPA-LA components that may handle, for example, waste package corrosion or radionuclide transport

  17. Floods and droughts: friends or foes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prudhomme, Christel

    2017-04-01

    Water hazards are some of the biggest threats to lives and livelihoods globally, causing serious damages to society and infrastructure. But floods and droughts are an essential part of the hydrological regime that ensures fundamental ecosystem functions, providing natural ways to bring in nutrients, flush out pollutants and enabling soils, rivers and lakes natural biodiversity to thrive. Traditionally, floods and droughts are too often considered separately, with scientific advance in process understanding, modelling, statistical characterisation and impact assessment are often done independently, possibly delaying the development of innovative methods that could be applied to both. This talk will review some of the key characteristics of floods and droughts, highlighting differences and commonalties, losses and benefits, with the aim of identifying future key research challenges faced by both current and next generation of hydrologists.

  18. Future probabilities of coastal floods in Finland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pellikka, Havu; Leijala, Ulpu; Johansson, Milla M.; Leinonen, Katri; Kahma, Kimmo K.

    2018-04-01

    Coastal planning requires detailed knowledge of future flooding risks, and effective planning must consider both short-term sea level variations and the long-term trend. We calculate distributions that combine short- and long-term effects to provide estimates of flood probabilities in 2050 and 2100 on the Finnish coast in the Baltic Sea. Our distributions of short-term sea level variations are based on 46 years (1971-2016) of observations from the 13 Finnish tide gauges. The long-term scenarios of mean sea level combine postglacial land uplift, regionally adjusted scenarios of global sea level rise, and the effect of changes in the wind climate. The results predict that flooding risks will clearly increase by 2100 in the Gulf of Finland and the Bothnian Sea, while only a small increase or no change compared to present-day conditions is expected in the Bothnian Bay, where the land uplift is stronger.

  19. Health impacts of floods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Weiwei; FitzGerald, Gerard Joseph; Clark, Michele; Hou, Xiang-Yu

    2010-01-01

    Floods are the most common hazard to cause disasters and have led to extensive morbidity and mortality throughout the world. The impact of floods on the human community is related directly to the location and topography of the area, as well as human demographics and characteristics of the built environment. The aim of this study is to identify the health impacts of disasters and the underlying causes of health impacts associated with floods. A conceptual framework is developed that may assist with the development of a rational and comprehensive approach to prevention, mitigation, and management. This study involved an extensive literature review that located >500 references, which were analyzed to identify common themes, findings, and expert views. The findings then were distilled into common themes. The health impacts of floods are wide ranging, and depend on a number of factors. However, the health impacts of a particular flood are specific to the particular context. The immediate health impacts of floods include drowning, injuries, hypothermia, and animal bites. Health risks also are associated with the evacuation of patients, loss of health workers, and loss of health infrastructure including essential drugs and supplies. In the medium-term, infected wounds, complications of injury, poisoning, poor mental health, communicable diseases, and starvation are indirect effects of flooding. In the long-term, chronic disease, disability, poor mental health, and poverty-related diseases including malnutrition are the potential legacy. This article proposes a structured approach to the classification of the health impacts of floods and a conceptual framework that demonstrates the relationships between floods and the direct and indirect health consequences.

  20. Change Abstract Title

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudich, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Investigating possible health effects of transported and resuspended dusts People in regions such as the Eastern Mediterranean are often exposed to high levels of both transported desert dust and to resuspended urban dust. Due to warming and drying trends, the frequency and intensity of dust storms have increased in the Eastern Mediterranean over the last decades. High exposure to particulate matter is a known risk factor to the exposed population, but the detailed understanding of how these dusts affect health remain elusive. In this talk I will describe aspects of how dust may impact health. First, transport of bacteria by desert dust, its effects on the local microbiome and dependence on the source region will be described. Then, we will describe the biological effects due to presence of biological components on dust. Finally, we will discuss how metals from brake and tire wear in resuspended urban dust affect oxidative stress and inflammation, and lead to oxidative damage in lung tissues. The significance of these findings in light of recent measurements from the global SPARATN network will be presented.

  1. Flood insurance in Canada: implications for flood management and residential vulnerability to flood hazards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oulahen, Greg

    2015-03-01

    Insurance coverage of damage caused by overland flooding is currently not available to Canadian homeowners. As flood disaster losses and water damage claims both trend upward, insurers in Canada are considering offering residential flood coverage in order to properly underwrite the risk and extend their business. If private flood insurance is introduced in Canada, it will have implications for the current regime of public flood management and for residential vulnerability to flood hazards. This paper engages many of the competing issues surrounding the privatization of flood risk by addressing questions about whether flood insurance can be an effective tool in limiting exposure to the hazard and how it would exacerbate already unequal vulnerability. A case study investigates willingness to pay for flood insurance among residents in Metro Vancouver and how attitudes about insurance relate to other factors that determine residential vulnerability to flood hazards. Findings indicate that demand for flood insurance is part of a complex, dialectical set of determinants of vulnerability.

  2. Spatiotemporal characteristics of flood protection level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanoue, M.; Ikeuchi, H.; Hirabayashi, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Flooding is the most frequent natural hazard and its global impacts will be rising associated with climate change and socioeconomic growth. So, the understanding of the physical and spatial-temporal patterns of risk drivers (exposure, damage, and flood protection level) are required to conduct effective adaptation and reduce the negative impacts of flooding. Although the understanding of exposure and damage has greatly improved using a combination of numerical model simulation and spatiotemporal distributions of population and asset, that of flood protection level is still lacking in particular spatial patterns. Previous research clarifies its temporal variation and relationship with per-capita income, however they do not consider its spatial variation. Flood protection level was associated with geographical characteristics (e.g., soil type and tectonic zone etc). This study tried to estimate spatiotemporal of flood protection level at country level and discuss about relationship between its spatial patterns and geographical characteristics. Mortality rate (percentage of fatalities in modeled exposed population) and loss rate (percentage of losses in modeled exposed GDP) to fluvial river flooding across the world suggested by Jongmann et al. (2015) were estimated from modeled flood exposure and damage statistics taken from the International Emergency Disasters Database. The result indicated that mortality rate reduced across the world from 1990 to 2005. The degree of its reduction decreased with increasing per-capita income level. On the other hand, loss rate at high income and middle low income levels reduced, while that at middle high income and low income levels drastically increased between 1995 and 2000 due to growth economic and occurrence of serious fluvial river flooding. Spatial distribution of mortality and loss rates were high in East Asia, the western part of South America, and the eastern part of Europe. These regions seem to be corresponded to the

  3. FLOOD CHARACTERISTICS AND MANAGEMENT ADAPTATIONS ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dr Osondu

    2011-10-26

    Oct 26, 2011 ... This paper examined the physical characteristics of floods and management adaptations to flood hazards in the Imo River basin. From the study, it was determined that the pre and post flood disaster management is a yearly event. The extent and time of commencement usually differs in each flood season ...

  4. Icone-9 (Abstract)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: in today's global energy environment, nuclear power plant managers need to consider many dimensions of risk in addition to nuclear safety risk. In order to stay competitive in modern energy markets, NPP managers must integrate management of production, safety, and economic risks in an effective way. This integrated risk management approach generates benefits that include the following: -) Clearer criteria for decision making; -) Levering investments made in probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) programs by applying these analyses to other areas and contexts; -) Cost consciousness and innovation in achieving nuclear safety and production goals; -) Communication improvement - more effective internal communication among all levels of the NPP operating organization, and clearer communication between the organization and its stakeholders; -) Focus on safety - ensuring an integrated focus on safety, production, and economics during times of change in the energy environment. The IAEA is now preparing a technical document that provides a comprehensive framework for Risk Management (RM) as a tool to enhance the performance of NPPs. It aims to explore the wider context of risk (safety, operations, financial/commercial, strategic), with a goal of providing a source document for use by managers of NPPs and operating organizations. This report describes the steps of the risk management process and provides examples of implementation. Because of its generic nature, this framework can be used for large-scale proposals as well as smaller ventures. The intended audience for this document encompasses all levels of operating organization management including managers responsible for setting policy on safety, operational, and commercial/financial aspects of NPP operation and the hands-on managers directly implementing the organization's policies. This report sets out a framework for application of integrated risk management to improve NPP performance

  5. Hurricane-driven floods in Mexico City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naranjo, M.

    2012-04-01

    Over thousands of years, floods have globally been the main cause of natural disasters. Over the last century, the impact of floods has been increased due to several factors as the rise in human population, settlements in risk prone areas, land use and cover changes and, the intensification of the hydrological cycle. Currently, disaster management must be carried out with the support of multidisciplinary teams that combine hydrologic and hydraulic studies with socio-economic assessments. We provide an example from the metropolitan area of Mexico City. Previously located in an endorheic basin, its current location lies over several lakes that were intensively managed since the 17th century. Although regular floods have been a characteristic of the region, it is since the 17th century that major sewage works were built in order to mitigate the impact of floods on the urban area. Nowadays, the basin has four artificial outlets that drain the urban runoff and wastewater though only one outlet is gravity-based whereas the remaining three need pumping to work properly. Hence, a hypothetical failure in the drainage system during a major storm event could trigger a flood-related catastrophe. The occurrence of such catastrophe could be driven by precipitation systems derived from the incidence of hurricanes along the Gulf of Mexico. This work analyzes the failure of the gates in the sewage system that provoked a substantial urban inundation in the northern part of Mexico City.

  6. Consistency of extreme flood estimation approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felder, Guido; Paquet, Emmanuel; Penot, David; Zischg, Andreas; Weingartner, Rolf

    2017-04-01

    Estimations of low-probability flood events are frequently used for the planning of infrastructure as well as for determining the dimensions of flood protection measures. There are several well-established methodical procedures to estimate low-probability floods. However, a global assessment of the consistency of these methods is difficult to achieve, the "true value" of an extreme flood being not observable. Anyway, a detailed comparison performed on a given case study brings useful information about the statistical and hydrological processes involved in different methods. In this study, the following three different approaches for estimating low-probability floods are compared: a purely statistical approach (ordinary extreme value statistics), a statistical approach based on stochastic rainfall-runoff simulation (SCHADEX method), and a deterministic approach (physically based PMF estimation). These methods are tested for two different Swiss catchments. The results and some intermediate variables are used for assessing potential strengths and weaknesses of each method, as well as for evaluating the consistency of these methods.

  7. Geomorphic Flood Area (GFA): a DEM-based tool for flood susceptibility mapping at large scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manfreda, S.; Samela, C.; Albano, R.; Sole, A.

    2017-12-01

    Flood hazard and risk mapping over large areas is a critical issue. Recently, many researchers are trying to achieve a global scale mapping encountering several difficulties, above all the lack of data and implementation costs. In data scarce environments, a preliminary and cost-effective floodplain delineation can be performed using geomorphic methods (e.g., Manfreda et al., 2014). We carried out several years of research on this topic, proposing a morphologic descriptor named Geomorphic Flood Index (GFI) (Samela et al., 2017) and developing a Digital Elevation Model (DEM)-based procedure able to identify flood susceptible areas. The procedure exhibited high accuracy in several test sites in Europe, United States and Africa (Manfreda et al., 2015; Samela et al., 2016, 2017) and has been recently implemented in a QGIS plugin named Geomorphic Flood Area (GFA) - tool. The tool allows to automatically compute the GFI, and turn it into a linear binary classifier capable of detecting flood-prone areas. To train this classifier, an inundation map derived using hydraulic models for a small portion of the basin is required (the minimum is 2% of the river basin's area). In this way, the GFA-tool allows to extend the classification of the flood-prone areas across the entire basin. We are also defining a simplified procedure for the estimation of the river depth, which may be helpful for large-scale analyses to approximatively evaluate the expected flood damages in the surrounding areas. ReferencesManfreda, S., Nardi, F., Samela, C., Grimaldi, S., Taramasso, A. C., Roth, G., & Sole, A. (2014). Investigation on the use of geomorphic approaches for the delineation of flood prone areas. J. Hydrol., 517, 863-876. Manfreda, S., Samela, C., Gioia, A., Consoli, G., Iacobellis, V., Giuzio, L., & Sole, A. (2016). Flood-prone areas assessment using linear binary classifiers based on flood maps obtained from 1D and 2D hydraulic models. Nat. Hazards, Vol. 79 (2), pp 735-754. Samela, C

  8. 1986 annual information meeting. Abstracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-01-01

    Abstracts are presented for the following papers: Geohydrological Research at the Y-12 Plant (C.S. Haase); Ecological Impacts of Waste Disposal Operations in Bear Creek Valley Near the Y-12 Plant (J.M. Loar); Finite Element Simulation of Subsurface Contaminant Transport: Logistic Difficulties in Handling Large Field Problems (G.T. Yeh); Dynamic Compaction of a Radioactive Waste Burial Trench (B.P. Spalding); Comparative Evaluation of Potential Sites for a High-Level Radioactive Waste Repository (E.D. Smith); Changing Priorities in Environmental Assessment and Environmental Compliance (R.M. Reed); Ecology, Ecotoxicology, and Ecological Risk Assessment (L.W. Barnthouse); Theory and Practice in Uncertainty Analysis from Ten Years of Practice (R.H. Gardner); Modeling Landscape Effects of Forest Decline (V.H. Dale); Soil Nitrogen and the Global Carbon Cycle (W.M. Post); Maximizing Wood Energy Production in Short-Rotation Plantations: Effect of Initial Spacing and Rotation Length (L.L. Wright); and Ecological Communities and Processes in Woodland Streams Exhibit Both Direct and Indirect Effects of Acidification (J.W. Elwood)

  9. Forecast-based Integrated Flood Detection System for Emergency Response and Disaster Risk Reduction (Flood-FINDER)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arcorace, Mauro; Silvestro, Francesco; Rudari, Roberto; Boni, Giorgio; Dell'Oro, Luca; Bjorgo, Einar

    2016-04-01

    Most flood prone areas in the globe are mainly located in developing countries where making communities more flood resilient is a priority. Despite different flood forecasting initiatives are now available from academia and research centers, what is often missing is the connection between the timely hazard detection and the community response to warnings. In order to bridge the gap between science and decision makers, UN agencies play a key role on the dissemination of information in the field and on capacity-building to local governments. In this context, having a reliable global early warning system in the UN would concretely improve existing in house capacities for Humanitarian Response and the Disaster Risk Reduction. For those reasons, UNITAR-UNOSAT has developed together with USGS and CIMA Foundation a Global Flood EWS called "Flood-FINDER". The Flood-FINDER system is a modelling chain which includes meteorological, hydrological and hydraulic models that are accurately linked to enable the production of warnings and forecast inundation scenarios up to three weeks in advance. The system is forced with global satellite derived precipitation products and Numerical Weather Prediction outputs. The modelling chain is based on the "Continuum" hydrological model and risk assessments produced for GAR2015. In combination with existing hydraulically reconditioned SRTM data and 1D hydraulic models, flood scenarios are derived at multiple scales and resolutions. Climate and flood data are shared through a Web GIS integrated platform. First validation of the modelling chain has been conducted through a flood hindcasting test case, over the Chao Phraya river basin in Thailand, using multi temporal satellite-based analysis derived for the exceptional flood event of 2011. In terms of humanitarian relief operations, the EO-based services of flood mapping in rush mode generally suffer from delays caused by the time required for their activation, programming, acquisitions and

  10. Flood characteristics of the Haor area in Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suman, Asadusjjaman; Bhattacharya, Biswa

    2013-04-01

    In recent years the world has experienced deaths, large-scale displacement of people, billions of Euros of economic damage, mental stress and ecosystem impacts due to flooding. Global changes (climate change, population and economic growth, and urbanisation) are exacerbating the severity of flooding. The 2010 floods in Pakistan and the 2011 floods in Australia and Thailand demonstrate the need for concerted action in the face of global societal and environmental changes to strengthen resilience against flooding. Bangladesh is a country, which is frequently suffering from flooding. The current research is conducted in the framework of a project, which focuses on the flooding issues in the Haor region in the north-east of Bangladesh. A haor is a saucer-shaped depression, which is used during the dry period (December to mid-May) for agriculture and as a fishery during the wet period (June-November), and thereby presents a very interesting socio-economic perspective of flood risk management. Pre-monsoon flooding till mid-May causes agricultural loss and lot of distress whereas monsoon flooding brings benefits. The area is bordering India, thereby presenting trans-boundary issues as well, and is fed by some flashy Indian catchments. The area is drained mainly through the Surma-Kushiyara river system. The terrain generally is flat and the flashy characteristics die out within a short distance from the border. Limited studies on the region, particularly with the help of numerical models, have been carried out in the past. Therefore, an objective of the current research was to set up numerical models capable of reasonably emulating the physical system. Such models could, for example, associate different gauges to the spatio-temporal variation of hydrodynamic variables and help in carrying out a systemic study on the impact of climate changes. A 1D2D model, with one-dimensional model for the rivers (based on MIKE 11 modelling tool from Danish Hydraulic Institute) and a two

  11. Enhancing Human Responses to Climate Change Risks through Simulated Flooding Experiences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaalberg, Ruud; Midden, Cees

    Delta areas are threatened by global climate change. The general aims of our research were (1) to increase our understanding of climate and flood risk perceptions and the factors that influence these judgments, and (2) to seek for interventions that can contribute to a realistic assessment by laypersons of long-term flooding risks. We argue that awareness of one's own vulnerability to future flooding and insights into the effectiveness of coping strategies is driven by direct flooding experiences. In the current research multimodal sensory stimulation by means of interactive 3D technology is used to simulate direct flooding experiences at the experiential or sensory level, thereby going beyond traditional persuasion attempts using fear-evoking images. Our results suggest that future communication efforts should not only use these new technologies to transfer knowledge about effective coping strategies and flooding risks, but should especially be directed towards residents living in flood prone areas, but who lack direct flooding experiences as their guiding principle.

  12. Localized Flood Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    practitioners will cover a range of practices that can help communities build flood resilience, from small scale interventions such as rain gardens and permeable pavement to coordinated open space and floodplain preservation

  13. Initial external events: floods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drumond, M.M.

    1989-12-01

    The initial external event, specifically flood in a Nuclear power plant, and the calculation necessary to determine the contribution of this type of event in a Probabilistic Safety Analysis, are presented. (M.I.)

  14. FLOODPLAIN, FLOOD COUNTY, USA

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Emergency Management Agency, Department of Homeland Security — The Floodplain Mapping/Redelineation study deliverables depict and quantify the flood risks for the study area. The primary risk classifications used are the...

  15. Floods and Mold Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mold growth may be a problem after flooding. Excess moisture in the home is cause for concern about indoor air quality primarily because it provides breeding conditions for pests, molds and other microorganisms.

  16. Mitigating flood exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shultz, James M; McLean, Andrew; Herberman Mash, Holly B; Rosen, Alexa; Kelly, Fiona; Solo-Gabriele, Helena M; Youngs Jr, Georgia A; Jensen, Jessica; Bernal, Oscar; Neria, Yuval

    2013-01-01

    Introduction. In 2011, following heavy winter snowfall, two cities bordering two rivers in North Dakota, USA faced major flood threats. Flooding was foreseeable and predictable although the extent of risk was uncertain. One community, Fargo, situated in a shallow river basin, successfully mitigated and prevented flooding. For the other community, Minot, located in a deep river valley, prevention was not possible and downtown businesses and one-quarter of the homes were inundated, in the city’s worst flood on record. We aimed at contrasting the respective hazards, vulnerabilities, stressors, psychological risk factors, psychosocial consequences, and disaster risk reduction strategies under conditions where flood prevention was, and was not, possible. Methods. We applied the “trauma signature analysis” (TSIG) approach to compare the hazard profiles, identify salient disaster stressors, document the key components of disaster risk reduction response, and examine indicators of community resilience. Results. Two demographically-comparable communities, Fargo and Minot, faced challenging river flood threats and exhibited effective coordination across community sectors. We examined the implementation of disaster risk reduction strategies in situations where coordinated citizen action was able to prevent disaster impact (hazard avoidance) compared to the more common scenario when unpreventable disaster strikes, causing destruction, harm, and distress. Across a range of indicators, it is clear that successful mitigation diminishes both physical and psychological impact, thereby reducing the trauma signature of the event. Conclusion. In contrast to experience of historic flooding in Minot, the city of Fargo succeeded in reducing the trauma signature by way of reducing risk through mitigation. PMID:28228985

  17. Compounding effects of sea level rise and fluvial flooding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moftakhari, Hamed R; Salvadori, Gianfausto; AghaKouchak, Amir; Sanders, Brett F; Matthew, Richard A

    2017-09-12

    Sea level rise (SLR), a well-documented and urgent aspect of anthropogenic global warming, threatens population and assets located in low-lying coastal regions all around the world. Common flood hazard assessment practices typically account for one driver at a time (e.g., either fluvial flooding only or ocean flooding only), whereas coastal cities vulnerable to SLR are at risk for flooding from multiple drivers (e.g., extreme coastal high tide, storm surge, and river flow). Here, we propose a bivariate flood hazard assessment approach that accounts for compound flooding from river flow and coastal water level, and we show that a univariate approach may not appropriately characterize the flood hazard if there are compounding effects. Using copulas and bivariate dependence analysis, we also quantify the increases in failure probabilities for 2030 and 2050 caused by SLR under representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5. Additionally, the increase in failure probability is shown to be strongly affected by compounding effects. The proposed failure probability method offers an innovative tool for assessing compounding flood hazards in a warming climate.

  18. Probabilistic flood extent estimates from social media flood observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brouwer, Tom; Eilander, Dirk; van Loenen, Arnejan; Booij, Martijn J.; Wijnberg, Kathelijne M.; Verkade, Jan S.; Wagemaker, Jurjen

    2017-05-01

    The increasing number and severity of floods, driven by phenomena such as urbanization, deforestation, subsidence and climate change, create a growing need for accurate and timely flood maps. In this paper we present and evaluate a method to create deterministic and probabilistic flood maps from Twitter messages that mention locations of flooding. A deterministic flood map created for the December 2015 flood in the city of York (UK) showed good performance (F(2) = 0.69; a statistic ranging from 0 to 1, with 1 expressing a perfect fit with validation data). The probabilistic flood maps we created showed that, in the York case study, the uncertainty in flood extent was mainly induced by errors in the precise locations of flood observations as derived from Twitter data. Errors in the terrain elevation data or in the parameters of the applied algorithm contributed less to flood extent uncertainty. Although these maps tended to overestimate the actual probability of flooding, they gave a reasonable representation of flood extent uncertainty in the area. This study illustrates that inherently uncertain data from social media can be used to derive information about flooding.

  19. Application of Flood Nomograph for Flood Forecasting in Urban Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eui Hoon Lee

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Imperviousness has increased due to urbanization, as has the frequency of extreme rainfall events by climate change. Various countermeasures, such as structural and nonstructural measures, are required to prepare for these effects. Flood forecasting is a representative nonstructural measure. Flood forecasting techniques have been developed for the prevention of repetitive flood damage in urban areas. It is difficult to apply some flood forecasting techniques using training processes because training needs to be applied at every usage. The other flood forecasting techniques that use rainfall data predicted by radar are not appropriate for small areas, such as single drainage basins. In this study, a new flood forecasting technique is suggested to reduce flood damage in urban areas. The flood nomograph consists of the first flooding nodes in rainfall runoff simulations with synthetic rainfall data at each duration. When selecting the first flooding node, the initial amount of synthetic rainfall is 1 mm, which increases in 1 mm increments until flooding occurs. The advantage of this flood forecasting technique is its simple application using real-time rainfall data. This technique can be used to prepare a preemptive response in the process of urban flood management.

  20. Role of adventitious roots in water relations of tamarack (Larix laricina seedlings exposed to flooding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Calvo-Polanco Mónica

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Flooding reduces supply of oxygen to the roots affecting plant water uptake. Some flooding-tolerant tree species including tamarack (Larix laricina (Du Roi K. Koch produce adventitious roots in response to flooding. These roots were reported to have higher hydraulic conductivity under flooding conditions compared with non-adventitious roots. In the present study, we examined structural and functional modifications in adventitious roots of tamarack seedlings to explain their flooding tolerance. Results Seedlings were subjected to the flooding treatment for six months, which resulted in an almost complete disintegration of the existing root system and its replacement with adventitious roots. We compared gas exchange parameters and water relations of flooded plants with the plants growing in well-drained soil and examined the root structures and root water transport properties. Although flooded seedlings had lower needle chlorophyll concentrations, their stomatal conductance, net photosynthesis rates and shoot water potentials were similar to non-flooded plants, indicative of flooding tolerance. Flooded adventitious roots had higher activation energy and a higher ratio of apoplastic to cell-to-cell water flow compared with non-flooded control roots as determined with the 1-hydroxypirene 3,6,8-trisulfonic acid apoplastic tracer dye. The adventitious roots in flooded plants also exhibited retarded xylem and endodermal development and accumulated numerous starch grains in the cortex. Microscopic examination of root sections treated with the PIP1 and PIP2 antibodies revealed high immunoreactivity in the cortex of non-flooded roots, as compared with flooded roots. Conclusions Structural modifications of adventitious roots suggest increased contribution of apoplastic bypass to water flow. The reduced dependence of roots on the hypoxia-sensitive aquaporin-mediated water transport is likely among the main mechanisms allowing tamarack

  1. Crowdsourcing detailed flood data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walliman, Nicholas; Ogden, Ray; Amouzad*, Shahrzhad

    2015-04-01

    Over the last decade the average annual loss across the European Union due to flooding has been 4.5bn Euros, but increasingly intense rainfall, as well as population growth, urbanisation and the rising costs of asset replacements, may see this rise to 23bn Euros a year by 2050. Equally disturbing are the profound social costs to individuals, families and communities which in addition to loss of lives include: loss of livelihoods, decreased purchasing and production power, relocation and migration, adverse psychosocial effects, and hindrance of economic growth and development. Flood prediction, management and defence strategies rely on the availability of accurate information and flood modelling. Whilst automated data gathering (by measurement and satellite) of the extent of flooding is already advanced it is least reliable in urban and physically complex geographies where often the need for precise estimation is most acute. Crowdsourced data of actual flood events is a potentially critical component of this allowing improved accuracy in situations and identifying the effects of local landscape and topography where the height of a simple kerb, or discontinuity in a boundary wall can have profound importance. Mobile 'App' based data acquisition using crowdsourcing in critical areas can combine camera records with GPS positional data and time, as well as descriptive data relating to the event. This will automatically produce a dataset, managed in ArcView GIS, with the potential for follow up calls to get more information through structured scripts for each strand. Through this local residents can provide highly detailed information that can be reflected in sophisticated flood protection models and be core to framing urban resilience strategies and optimising the effectiveness of investment. This paper will describe this pioneering approach that will develop flood event data in support of systems that will advance existing approaches such as developed in the in the UK

  2. Physiologically-based toxicokinetic models help identifying the key factors affecting contaminant uptake during flood events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brinkmann, Markus; Eichbaum, Kathrin [Department of Ecosystem Analysis, Institute for Environmental Research,ABBt – Aachen Biology and Biotechnology, RWTH Aachen University, Worringerweg 1, 52074 Aachen (Germany); Kammann, Ulrike [Thünen-Institute of Fisheries Ecology, Palmaille 9, 22767 Hamburg (Germany); Hudjetz, Sebastian [Department of Ecosystem Analysis, Institute for Environmental Research,ABBt – Aachen Biology and Biotechnology, RWTH Aachen University, Worringerweg 1, 52074 Aachen (Germany); Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, RWTH Aachen University, Mies-van-der-Rohe-Straße 1, 52056 Aachen (Germany); Cofalla, Catrina [Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, RWTH Aachen University, Mies-van-der-Rohe-Straße 1, 52056 Aachen (Germany); Buchinger, Sebastian; Reifferscheid, Georg [Federal Institute of Hydrology (BFG), Department G3: Biochemistry, Ecotoxicology, Am Mainzer Tor 1, 56068 Koblenz (Germany); Schüttrumpf, Holger [Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, RWTH Aachen University, Mies-van-der-Rohe-Straße 1, 52056 Aachen (Germany); Preuss, Thomas [Department of Environmental Biology and Chemodynamics, Institute for Environmental Research,ABBt- Aachen Biology and Biotechnology, RWTH Aachen University, Worringerweg 1, 52074 Aachen (Germany); and others

    2014-07-01

    Highlights: • A PBTK model for trout was coupled with a sediment equilibrium partitioning model. • The influence of physical exercise on pollutant uptake was studies using the model. • Physical exercise during flood events can increase the level of biliary metabolites. • Cardiac output and effective respiratory volume were identified as relevant factors. • These confounding factors need to be considered also for bioconcentration studies. - Abstract: As a consequence of global climate change, we will be likely facing an increasing frequency and intensity of flood events. Thus, the ecotoxicological relevance of sediment re-suspension is of growing concern. It is vital to understand contaminant uptake from suspended sediments and relate it to effects in aquatic biota. Here we report on a computational study that utilizes a physiologically based toxicokinetic model to predict uptake, metabolism and excretion of sediment-borne pyrene in rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss). To this end, data from two experimental studies were compared with the model predictions: (a) batch re-suspension experiments with constant concentration of suspended particulate matter at two different temperatures (12 and 24 °C), and (b) simulated flood events in an annular flume. The model predicted both the final concentrations and the kinetics of 1-hydroxypyrene secretion into the gall bladder of exposed rainbow trout well. We were able to show that exhaustive exercise during exposure in simulated flood events can lead to increased levels of biliary metabolites and identified cardiac output and effective respiratory volume as the two most important factors for contaminant uptake. The results of our study clearly demonstrate the relevance and the necessity to investigate uptake of contaminants from suspended sediments under realistic exposure scenarios.

  3. Physiologically-based toxicokinetic models help identifying the key factors affecting contaminant uptake during flood events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brinkmann, Markus; Eichbaum, Kathrin; Kammann, Ulrike; Hudjetz, Sebastian; Cofalla, Catrina; Buchinger, Sebastian; Reifferscheid, Georg; Schüttrumpf, Holger; Preuss, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A PBTK model for trout was coupled with a sediment equilibrium partitioning model. • The influence of physical exercise on pollutant uptake was studies using the model. • Physical exercise during flood events can increase the level of biliary metabolites. • Cardiac output and effective respiratory volume were identified as relevant factors. • These confounding factors need to be considered also for bioconcentration studies. - Abstract: As a consequence of global climate change, we will be likely facing an increasing frequency and intensity of flood events. Thus, the ecotoxicological relevance of sediment re-suspension is of growing concern. It is vital to understand contaminant uptake from suspended sediments and relate it to effects in aquatic biota. Here we report on a computational study that utilizes a physiologically based toxicokinetic model to predict uptake, metabolism and excretion of sediment-borne pyrene in rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss). To this end, data from two experimental studies were compared with the model predictions: (a) batch re-suspension experiments with constant concentration of suspended particulate matter at two different temperatures (12 and 24 °C), and (b) simulated flood events in an annular flume. The model predicted both the final concentrations and the kinetics of 1-hydroxypyrene secretion into the gall bladder of exposed rainbow trout well. We were able to show that exhaustive exercise during exposure in simulated flood events can lead to increased levels of biliary metabolites and identified cardiac output and effective respiratory volume as the two most important factors for contaminant uptake. The results of our study clearly demonstrate the relevance and the necessity to investigate uptake of contaminants from suspended sediments under realistic exposure scenarios

  4. Grounding abstractness: Abstract concepts and the activation of the mouth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna M Borghi

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available One key issue for theories of cognition is how abstract concepts, such as freedom, are represented. According to the WAT (Words As social Tools proposal, abstract concepts activate both sensorimotor and linguistic/social information, and their acquisition modality involves the linguistic experience more than the acquisition of concrete concepts. We report an experiment in which participants were presented with abstract and concrete definitions followed by concrete and abstract target-words. When the definition and the word matched, participants were required to press a key, either with the hand or with the mouth. Response times and accuracy were recorded. As predicted, we found that abstract definitions and abstract words yielded slower responses and more errors compared to concrete definitions and concrete words. More crucially, there was an interaction between the target-words and the effector used to respond (hand, mouth. While responses with the mouth were overall slower, the advantage of the hand over the mouth responses was more marked with concrete than with abstract concepts. The results are in keeping with grounded and embodied theories of cognition and support the WAT proposal, according to which abstract concepts evoke linguistic-social information, hence activate the mouth. The mechanisms underlying the mouth activation with abstract concepts (re-enactment of acquisition experience, or re-explanation of the word meaning, possibly through inner talk are discussed. To our knowledge this is the first behavioral study demonstrating with real words that the advantage of the hand over the mouth is more marked with concrete than with abstract concepts, likely because of the activation of linguistic information with abstract concepts.

  5. Grounding Abstractness: Abstract Concepts and the Activation of the Mouth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borghi, Anna M; Zarcone, Edoardo

    2016-01-01

    One key issue for theories of cognition is how abstract concepts, such as freedom, are represented. According to the WAT (Words As social Tools) proposal, abstract concepts activate both sensorimotor and linguistic/social information, and their acquisition modality involves the linguistic experience more than the acquisition of concrete concepts. We report an experiment in which participants were presented with abstract and concrete definitions followed by concrete and abstract target-words. When the definition and the word matched, participants were required to press a key, either with the hand or with the mouth. Response times and accuracy were recorded. As predicted, we found that abstract definitions and abstract words yielded slower responses and more errors compared to concrete definitions and concrete words. More crucially, there was an interaction between the target-words and the effector used to respond (hand, mouth). While responses with the mouth were overall slower, the advantage of the hand over the mouth responses was more marked with concrete than with abstract concepts. The results are in keeping with grounded and embodied theories of cognition and support the WAT proposal, according to which abstract concepts evoke linguistic-social information, hence activate the mouth. The mechanisms underlying the mouth activation with abstract concepts (re-enactment of acquisition experience, or re-explanation of the word meaning, possibly through inner talk) are discussed. To our knowledge this is the first behavioral study demonstrating with real words that the advantage of the hand over the mouth is more marked with concrete than with abstract concepts, likely because of the activation of linguistic information with abstract concepts.

  6. Flood risk assessment and mapping for the Lebanese watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdallah, Chadi; Hdeib, Rouya

    2016-04-01

    Of all natural disasters, floods affect the greatest number of people worldwide and have the greatest potential to cause damage. Nowadays, with the emerging global warming phenomenon, this number is expected to increase. The Eastern Mediterranean area, including Lebanon (10452 Km2, 4.5 M habitant), has witnessed in the past few decades an increase frequency of flooding events. This study profoundly assess the flood risk over Lebanon covering all the 17 major watersheds and a number of small sub-catchments. It evaluate the physical direct tangible damages caused by floods. The risk assessment and evaluation process was carried out over three stages; i) Evaluating Assets at Risk, where the areas and assets vulnerable to flooding are identified, ii) Vulnerability Assessment, where the causes of vulnerability are assessed and the value of the assets are provided, iii) Risk Assessment, where damage functions are established and the consequent damages of flooding are estimated. A detailed Land CoverUse map was prepared at a scale of 1/ 1 000 using 0.4 m resolution satellite images within the flood hazard zones. The detailed field verification enabled to allocate and characterize all elements at risk, identify hotspots, interview local witnesses, and to correlate and calibrate previous flood damages with the utilized models. All filed gathered information was collected through Mobile Application and transformed to be standardized and classified under GIS environment. Consequently; the general damage evaluation and risk maps at different flood recurrence periods (10, 50, 100 years) were established. Major results showed that floods in a winter season (December, January, and February) of 10 year recurrence and of water retention ranging from 1 to 3 days can cause total damages (losses) that reach 1.14 M for crop lands and 2.30 M for green houses. Whereas, it may cause 0.2 M to losses in fruit trees for a flood retention ranging from 3 to 5 days. These numbers differs

  7. Impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 120; Issue 3 ... Climate changes; extreme rainfall events; flood risk. Abstract. The occurrence of exceptionally heavy rainfall events and associated flash floods in many areas during recent years motivate us to study long-term changes in extreme rainfall over India.

  8. Mechanical Engineering Department technical abstracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Denney, R.M.

    1982-01-01

    The Mechanical Engineering Department publishes listings of technical abstracts twice a year to inform readers of the broad range of technical activities in the Department, and to promote an exchange of ideas. Details of the work covered by an abstract may be obtained by contacting the author(s). Overall information about current activities of each of the Department's seven divisions precedes the technical abstracts

  9. Mechanical Engineering Department technical abstracts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denney, R.M. (ed.)

    1982-07-01

    The Mechanical Engineering Department publishes listings of technical abstracts twice a year to inform readers of the broad range of technical activities in the Department, and to promote an exchange of ideas. Details of the work covered by an abstract may be obtained by contacting the author(s). Overall information about current activities of each of the Department's seven divisions precedes the technical abstracts.

  10. Logical Full Abstraction and PCF

    OpenAIRE

    Longley, John R; Plotkin, Gordon

    2000-01-01

    We introduce the concept of logical full abstraction, generalising the usual equational notion. We consider the language PCF and two extensions with “parallel” operations. The main result is that, for standard interpretations, logical full abstraction is equivalent to equational full abstraction together with universality; the proof involves constructing enumeration operators. We also consider restrictions on logical complexity and on the level of types.

  11. Understanding flood risk sensitivity and uncertainty in a subcatchment of the Thames River (United Kingdom)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theofanidi, Sofia; Cloke, Hannah Louise; Clark, Joanna

    2017-04-01

    Floods are a global threat to social, economic and environmental development and there is a likelihood, that they could occur more frequently in the future due to climatic change. The severity of their impacts, which can last for years, has led to the urgent need for local communities and national authorities to develop flood warning systems for a better flood preparedness and emergency response. The flood warning systems often rely on hydrological forecasting tools to predict the hydrological response of a watershed before or during a flood event. Hydrological models have been substantially upgraded since the first use of hydrographs and the use of simple conceptual models. Hydrodynamic and hydraulic routing enables the spatial and temporal prediction of flow rates (peak discharges) and water levels. Moreover, the hydrodynamic modeling in 2D permits the estimation of the flood inundation area. This can be particularly useful because the flood zones can provide essential information about the flood risk and the flood damage. In this study, we use a hydrodynamic model which can simulate water levels and river flows in open channel conditions. The model can incorporate the effect of several river structures in the flood modeling process, such as the existence of bridges and weirs. The flood routing method is based on the solution of continuity and energy momentum equations. In addition, the floodplain inundation modeling which is based on the solution of shallow water equations along the channel's banks, will be used for the mapping of flood extent. A GIS interface will serve as a database, including high resolution topography, vector layers of river network, gauging stations, land use and land cover, geology and soil information. The flood frequency analysis, together with historical records on flood warnings, will enable the understanding on the flow regimes and the selection of particular flood events for modeling. One dimensional and two dimensional simulations

  12. Abstract

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ­E¢b

    direction, which is believed to lead to improved social life and welfare. This means that Ethiopian trade and economic ... holding better market share and customer satisfaction in their products and services. In addition, in both ...... 1995. Dominant Values and Parenting. Styles: Major Limiting Factors on the Development of.

  13. ABSTRACT

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    their effective participation under different socio- ecological constraints (IDRC, 1993;Takyiwa, 1998;. Kinikanwo, 2000; Isiugo-Abanike, 1994; UNO, 1989). The general issue here is to estimate the extent of female participation in ruminant livestock operations with a view to establishing if stereotyping such operations along.

  14. Abstract

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    feasible and sustainable options. ... strategies, specific to the benefits of exclusive breastfeeding as a mechanism to reduce the risk of HIV transmission is urgently needed ... Joyce Beatrice Ballidawa is a lecturer in the Department of Behavioural Sciences at Moi University School of Medicine, Eldoret, a position she has held.

  15. Abstracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation is about: danger identification, caracterization, evaluation exposition, risk (CAC, 1997; FAO, 2007), European food safety authority, foodrisk organization, pathogens risk ranking, risk reduction, gubernamental responsability

  16. ABSTRACT

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Efforts have also been successfully made to include the study of rock art in the school/ college curriculum so as to help develop awareness amongst the students and general public about the need to preserve this cultural heritage for the posterity and also to highlight its importance in tourism industry. rock art and their ...

  17. ABSTRACT

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    ... school/ college curriculum so as to help develop awareness amongst the students and general public about the need to preserve this cultural heritage for the posterity and also to highlight its importance in tourism industry. rock art and their chronological sequences to more applied aspects like scientific methods of dating ...

  18. Abstract

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Francis

    Ficus species. Journal of Ethnopharmacology 41: 71-76. Nadkarni KM (1976) Indian Materia Medica. Third edition, Vol I. Popular Prakhasan, Bombay. NCCLS (National Committee for Clinical Laboratory Standards) (1999). Performance standards for antimicrobial susceptibility testing. 9th International Supplement M100- ...

  19. Abstract

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Getachew

    realistic distribution of no-show data in modeling the cost function was considered using data collected from the .... the paper models the cost function based on a realistic probability distributions based on the historical data is a .... Plot of Revenue generated vs. overbooking for two class case (at $500. Compensation Cost ...

  20. Abstract

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dr Osondu

    2011-10-26

    Oct 26, 2011 ... Keywords: Municipal solid waste; Geographic information system; waste bin; optimal location; developing city. Introduction. Over the years, the spatial organization and existing infrastructure of cities in developing countries pose challenges for sustainable solid waste management programs. Much of the ...

  1. Abstract

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ATTAMAH C. O

    Differences in Climate Change Effects and Adaptation Strategies between Male and Female Livestock Entrepreneurs in ... differed from females in the adaptation strategies used in combating climate change and also on their view on ..... also make use of the same farm road whether in good or bad shape. This is in line with.

  2. ABSTRACT

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dr Obe

    inner forces (bending moments, shearing forces etc) are usually redistributed. Cracks that often appear within the walls of tall buildings during constructions point to this phenomenon. It has also been recognized that foundation engineering is complicated. (1). Also settlement has been accepted as stress induced and time ...

  3. Abstract

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    viral activity has been observed for halofantrine, amodiaquine and mepacrine.” The clinical significance of these findings is uncertain“"”-. There is some evidence that HIV protease inhibitors may alter disease outcomes of colnfected patients.

  4. Abstract

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    was to determine how the natural aerial connec- teracting worker ants from adjacent trees and tions affected'the viability of colonies Oro!. , observing whether fighting took~iplace :(Yar~ra,. IQffginoda in the tree crowns, in the presence of, 1992). Ants of different colonies fight aggres- inimical ants,P" megacephala, 'on the ...

  5. abstract

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    . user

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: One of the microbiological preparations used for this study was Effective Microorganisms (EM, being a commercial mixture of photosynthesizing bacteria, Actinomycetes, lactic acid bacteria, yeasts and fermenting fungi. The microbiological composition of the EM concentrateincludesStreptomyces albus, Propioni bacterium freudenreichil, Streptococcus lactis, Aspergillus oryzae, Mucor hiemalis, Saccharomycescerevisiae and Candida utilis. Moreover, EM also contains an unspecified amount of Lactobacillus sp. Rhodo pseudomonas sp. and Streptomyces griseus. Effective Microorganisms have a positive effect on the decomposition of organic matter, limiting putrefaction, increasing nitrogen content in the root medium of plants, phosphorus, improving soil fertility and as a result contributing to the growth and development of the root systems of plants. Selection of almond vegetative rootstocks for water stress tolerance is important for almond crop production in arid and semi-arid regions. The study of the eco-morphological characteristics that determine the success of a rootstock in a particular environment is a powerful tool for both agricultural management and breeding purposes. The aim of this work was to select the new rootstocks for water shortage tolerance, impact of water stress as well as Effective Microorganism (EM on morphological characteristics of almond rootstocks. Materials and Methods: In order to select the new rootstocks for water shortage tolerance, impact of water stress as well as EMonmorphologicalcharacteristics of almondrootstocks were studiedin thedepartment ofHorticulture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, in 2011-2012. The experiment was carried out with four replications in a completely random blockdesign to study the effects of two concentrations of EM (0 and 1%, three irrigation levels (normal irrigation 100%-control-and irrigation after depletion of 33 and 66% of available water, and four almond rootstocks including GF677 and selected natural hybrid of peach × almond (H1and H2, and almond vegetative rootstock (local control.In this study,EMtreatments for 60 days before stress treatments were applied so that in each irrigation, EM solution to a concentration of one percent was given to half of the experiment pots. Other pots were irrigated equally with normal water. Stress levels were applied from July as follow: full irrigation, watering after unloading 33% and 66% soil moisture availability. In order to evaluate the performance, seedling survival, plant growth, number of leaves, leaf area, root fresh and dry weight and leaves and root length were measured. Results and Discussion: Analysis of variance showed that between rootstock levels across all treatments were significantly differences at 0.01 level of probability. Comparison of means showed that the highest fresh and dry weight and leaf are awere observed forGF677and H1.Rootstockannualgrowth rate was also different. Most of the growth was related to the H1 Rootstocks. Thes urvival ratewas significantly different from the Rootstocks ofGF677,andH1showedthe highestpercentage of survival. The degree of adaptation to drought in varieties of almonds is different. The results showed that changes ingrowthparametersinGF677and H1were observed less often than other rootstocks. Because of strong roots,GF677and H1continue to attract more minerals under stress conditions. Analysis of variance showed that the between irrigation levels for all treatments were significantly different at 0.01 level of probability. Comparison of means showed that among the study traits, the highest amount was obtained from complete irrigation, while irrigationat66 percenthad the least amount. Water stress may directly affect photosyn thesis, through leaf photochemicalprocessorindirectly,byclosing stomata, reducingleaf area and growth. The results showed that the levels of(EM on the leaf surface, leaf number, annual growth, root dry weight and volume were significantly different (p

  6. ABSTRACT

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    BSN

    The preservative effect of CO\\\\'pea pods. seeds, husk. and water and ethanol extracts of the seeds and ... preservation of "kindirmo" with water and ethanol extracts of seeds and husk of. CO\\\\'J)Ca for most of the ... Perhaps same may apply in the area of preservatives: plant products may be safer and biologically friendlier.

  7. Abstract

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2017-03-10

    Mar 10, 2017 ... TaqMan allelic discrimination assay. .... women). All patients fulfilled the 1987 American College of Rheumatology criteria for RA. (Arnett et al. 1988). A rheumatology university fellow reviewed all clinical data. ... The rs6457617 and rs13192471 were genotyped with a TaqMan 5' allelic discrimination.

  8. Abstracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-09-01

    The proceedings contain 106 papers of which 2 fall under the INIS Scope. One concerns seismic risk assessment at radioactive waste repositories in the U.S., the other concerns the possibility of predicting earthquakes from changes in radon 222 levels in selected ground water springs of northern Italy. (M.D.)

  9. abstract

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    abstract abstract

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Strawberry (fragaria×ananassa Duch. fruit characterized by short storage life, often estimated last less than one week even under optimum conditions at 8°C. The loss of fruit quality is often caused by gray mold (Botrytis cinerea that is the most frequent reported postharvest disease in strawberry during storage (6. In recent years, considerable attention has given to elimination of synthetic chemical and fungicides application and development of various alternative strategies for controlling fruit and vegetables diseases (2. One strategy is replacement of natural products with plant origin such as essential oil and methyl salicylate (MeSA. Essential oils are volatile, natural and complex compounds characterized by a strong odor formed by aromatic plants in form of secondary metabolites. In nature, essential similar oils that extract from lavender (Lavandula angustifolia play an important role in protection of the plants against pathogen incidence that can be replaced by synthetic fungicides (1, 4 and 14. MeSA is also a volatile natural compound synthesized from salicylic acid which has an important role in the plant defense-mechanism, as well as plant growth and development (5, 19 and 20. Therefore, the main objective of this research was to study the effects of MeSA and lavender essential oil (LEO on decay control caused by Botrytis cinerea as well as post-harvest quality indices of strawberry fruits during cold storage. Material and Methods: First, antifungal activity was studied by using a contact assay (in vitro, which produces hyphal growth inhibition. Briefly, potato dextrose agar (PDA plates were prepared using 8 cm diameter glass petri dishes and inhibitory percentage was determined. For in-vivo assessment of LEO and MeSA effects on Botrytis-caused fungal disease control, the experiment was conducted as factorial in completely randomized design (CRD with 3 replicates. The treatments were 3 concentration of LEO including 0, 500 and 1000 µl L-1 and 3 level of MeSA including 0, 0.1 and 0.2 mM. After treatment, the fruits were inoculated by Botrytis suspension and transferred to storage and quality parameters were evaluated after 7, 14 and 21 days. At each sampling time, disease incidence, weight loss, titratable acidity, pH, soluble solids content, vitamin C and antioxidant activity were measured. Results and Discussion: The results showed that both LEO and MeSA treatments had significant effects on inhibition of mycelium growth within in-vitro condition (p < 0.05. Inhibition rate of mycelium growth significantly improved by LEO and MeSA concentration increase of, (Table 1. At in-vivo assessment, diseases incidence of treated fruits with 500 µl L-1 LEO and 0.1 mM MeSA were 32% and 64% lower than untreated fruits, respectively (Fig. 1 and 2. During storage period, the percentage of infected fruits increased. In addition, LEO and MeSA treatments affected quality parameters of strawberry fruits including titratable acidity, soluble solids content, vitamin C and antioxidant activity. Treated fruits had a high content of soluble solids, vitamin C and antioxidant activity in comparison to untreated fruits (Table 3 and 4. Probably ascorbic acid decreased through fungal infection duo to cell wall break down during storage. Any factors such as essential oil and salicylate that inhibit fungal growth can help preserving vitamin C in stored products. High level of vitamin C and antioxidant activity was observed in treated fruits with 0.1 mM MeSA and 500 µl L-1 LEO. In controlling weight loss of fruits, 0.2 mM of MeSA and 500 µl L-1 of LEO had significant effects, although MeSA was more effective than LEO treatments, possibly due to elimination of respiration rates and fungi infection (Table 4. Therefore, LEO and MeSA with fungicide effects could be replaced with synthetic fungicides in controlling fungal diseases of strawberry and maintain fruits quality during storage. Conclusion: In conclusion, our results showed that LEO and MeSA treatments could be safe and used to prevent infection of strawberry during storage, although LEO was more effective than MeSA treatments. Concentration of 500 μl L-1 of LEO and 0.1 mM MeSA could control fungal infection of fruits during storage. Also, LEO and MeSA treatments can extend shelf life for over the minimum period required to transit strawberries to foreign markets and without affecting quality, adversely. However, future studies are necessary to fully understand the mechanisms by which LEO and MeSA treatments may act as a fungicide and increase their postharvest life.

  10. Abstract

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This talk deals with the geometry of Banach spaces. A non-reflexive Banach space embeds canonically in its second dual and the process continues, giving raise to a strictly increasing chain of Banach spaces. A well known example of a geometric phenomenon that is preserved in this chain, is that of being (isometric) a ...

  11. Abstract

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PROF. O. E. OSUAGWU

    This software template is also of immense benefits to students of different ... connection, there is the potential to track learner's action in a ..... intelligence. This software will be a direct application of artificial intelligence to develop a special authoring system for e- learning that will have the ability to learn. Intelligent authoring ...

  12. Abstract

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tafdrup, Oliver

    2013-01-01

    Udgivet som en del af Tidskrifts specialudgivelse om Adorno. http://tidskrift.dk/data/50/Aforismesamling.pdf......Udgivet som en del af Tidskrifts specialudgivelse om Adorno. http://tidskrift.dk/data/50/Aforismesamling.pdf...

  13. Abstract

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Maru Shete

    of voice, power and representation. To avert this situation, poor women in the research area require equal participation in resources sharing and power of decision making, better employment, housing, education, health care and other opportunities for social service opportunities through savings and credit cooperatives.

  14. ABSTRACT

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Chylous leakage is an unusual complication following anterior spinal surgery. This leakage can occur as a result of traumatic injury to the thoracic duct, the cisterna chyli, or the retroperitoneal lymphatic vessels. We report a case of a 56 year old female with thoracic spine disc prolapses with cord compression. She.

  15. Abstract

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2017-03-10

    Mar 10, 2017 ... Significant p-values were corrected (pc) by the number of alleles tested or subgroups analysed according to Bonferroni's ... LD in healthy controls between both rs13192471/rs6457617 with a value of D'=0.99 and ..... Radstake T.R., Gorlova O., Rueda B., Martin J.E., Alizadeh B.Z., Palomino-Morales R. et al.

  16. ABSTRACT

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    -. 1111'. Cl". SO41-. (11-. $0}-. C1; sof-. SW' s-j'. (11; so}. New-_ Blank 'spa§cS imply rhelal levels below cleteczim. ,1 z,m1:> .Qu11>»»»: mtalive analysis _ . 1 mined for individual 1ni11cral. §_'r['§>f:é€lY.l.'.l.fi;'u'- we Table l 006%. 1 ii'!

  17. Abstract

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Getachew

    request made by a customer for a reservation of a certain class at time T. Although dynamic .... to both customer reaction upon denied boarding and profit loss. .... Sabanci University. http://www.optimization- online.org. Bailey, J. 2007. Bumped fliers and no plan B. The New York Times. Beckman, M.J & Bobkoski, F. 1985.

  18. ABSTRACT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michelle de Stefano Sabino

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to describe and to analyze the integration observed in the Sintonia project with respect to the comparison of project management processes to the model of the Stage-Gate ®. The literature addresses these issues conceptually, but lack an alignment between them that is evident in practice. As a method was used single case study. The report is as if the Sintonia project, developed by PRODESP - Data Processing Company of São Paulo. The results show the integration of project management processes with the Stage-Gate model developed during the project life cycle. The formalization of the project was defined in stages in which allowed the exploitation of economies of repetition and recombination to the development of new projects. This study contributes to the technical vision in dealing with the integration of project management processes. It was concluded that this system represents an attractive way, in terms of creating economic value and technological innovation for the organization.

  19. Abstract

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    UDS-CAPTURED

    The high cost of delivering financial services to small and widely dispersed customers as well as difficult financial terrain in rural settings characterized by high covariant risks, missing markets for risk management instruments and ... Improving the extent of access to credit for low income households is a vital part of any rural ...

  20. Abstract

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    dell

    the curriculum in higher education. In a similar way, major advances in biological, health sciences, social sciences, physical and life sciences, business and economics, and technology lead to revision of courses in the field. In line, with the everlasting explosion of knowledge and increasing sophistication of technology ...

  1. ABSTRACT

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    production alone cannot provide the animal protein needs of about 100 million Nigerians. This, therefore calls for ... Fish contributes about 12 percent of the total animal protein supply of the World population (Borgstorm, ..... motivation for extension personnel (7.5%), inadequate transport facilities (5.5%), absence of strong ...

  2. Abstracts

    OpenAIRE

    Revista, Innovar

    2011-01-01

    New approaches towards Efficiency, Productivity and Quality in Management Theory / New approaches towards Efficiency, Productivity and Quality in Management Theory / The new paradigm regarding Science and Management Theory / Game Theory as applied to Administration / A Systemic approach to Territorial Diagnosis /  A prolile 0f Technological Capacity in the Graphical Art, Printing and Publishing Industry / Colombian Industrialisation: a Heterodox Vision /Determinant factors in environmental po...

  3. Abstract

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Implementing this collaborative e-learning environment on a Linux thin-client system makes it possible for this environment to be available in most schools and companies because the Linux thin-clients are less expensive than other conventional computing systems. Developing a. Collaborative E-Learning Environment on ...

  4. abstract

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    communication and institutions activities in removing constraints which impede the acceptance and continued usage .... With farmers' feedback, scientists cannot misinterpret a problem or attribute wrong causes to it. ..... Protection and Environmental Management, University of lbadan,. Ibadan. Ashby, J. (1990): Small-farmer ...

  5. Abstract ~. ,

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Governmenf to educate dairy farmers, milli vendors and the consume~s on the importance of producing, selling and consuming respectively un-adulterated milk. Key words: Milk, water adulteration, Morogoro Municipality. Introduction. Total annual milk production in Tanzania is estimated to be at 724,000 metric tons (F AO,.

  6. Mapping flood hazards under uncertainty through probabilistic flood inundation maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, T.; Bledsoe, B. P.; Miller, A. J.; Lee, G.

    2017-12-01

    Changing precipitation, rapid urbanization, and population growth interact to create unprecedented challenges for flood mitigation and management. Standard methods for estimating risk from flood inundation maps generally involve simulations of floodplain hydraulics for an established regulatory discharge of specified frequency. Hydraulic model results are then geospatially mapped and depicted as a discrete boundary of flood extents and a binary representation of the probability of inundation (in or out) that is assumed constant over a project's lifetime. Consequently, existing methods utilized to define flood hazards and assess risk management are hindered by deterministic approaches that assume stationarity in a nonstationary world, failing to account for spatio-temporal variability of climate and land use as they translate to hydraulic models. This presentation outlines novel techniques for portraying flood hazards and the results of multiple flood inundation maps spanning hydroclimatic regions. Flood inundation maps generated through modeling of floodplain hydraulics are probabilistic reflecting uncertainty quantified through Monte-Carlo analyses of model inputs and parameters under current and future scenarios. The likelihood of inundation and range of variability in flood extents resulting from Monte-Carlo simulations are then compared with deterministic evaluations of flood hazards from current regulatory flood hazard maps. By facilitating alternative approaches of portraying flood hazards, the novel techniques described in this presentation can contribute to a shifting paradigm in flood management that acknowledges the inherent uncertainty in model estimates and the nonstationary behavior of land use and climate.

  7. perceptions and realities of flood hazards, flood mitigation and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DJFLEX

    Flood is a catastrophic event that has a long history and occurs both in developed and developing countries. Flood is recurrent, its severity varies over a wide range, and it is largely unpredictable in terms of magnitude and occurrence. Vulnerability to flood has been linked to poverty and cultural affiliations in developing ...

  8. Probabilistic flood extent estimates from social media flood observations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brouwer, Tom; Eilander, Dirk; Van Loenen, Arnejan; Booij, Martijn J.; Wijnberg, Kathelijne M.; Verkade, Jan S.; Wagemaker, Jurjen

    2017-01-01

    The increasing number and severity of floods, driven by phenomena such as urbanization, deforestation, subsidence and climate change, create a growing need for accurate and timely flood maps. In this paper we present and evaluate a method to create deterministic and probabilistic flood maps from

  9. Perceptions and realities of flood hazards, flood mitigation and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Flood is a catastrophic event that has a long history and occurs both in developed and developing countries. Flood is recurrent, its severity varies over a wide range, and it is largely unpredictable in terms of magnitude and occurrence. Vulnerability to flood has been linked to poverty and cultural affiliations in developing ...

  10. Flood Risk Management In Europe: European flood regulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hegger, D.L.T.; Bakker, M.H.; Green, C.; Driessen, Peter; Delvaux, B.; Rijswick, H.F.M.W. van; Suykens, C.; Beyers, J-C.; Deketelaere, K.; Doorn-Hoekveld, W. van; Dieperink, C.

    2013-01-01

    In Europe, water management is moving from flood defense to a risk management approach, which takes both the probability and the potential consequences of flooding into account. In this report, we will look at Directives and (non-)EU- initiatives in place to deal with flood risk in Europe indirectly

  11. Determining the Financial Impact of Flood Hazards in Ungaged Basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cotterman, K. A.; Gutenson, J. L.; Pradhan, N. R.; Byrd, A.

    2017-12-01

    Many portions of the Earth lack adequate authoritative or in situ data that is of great value in determining natural hazard vulnerability from both anthropogenic and physical perspective. Such locations include the majority of developing nations, which do not possess adequate warning systems and protective infrastructure. The lack of warning and protection from natural hazards make these nations vulnerable to the destructive power of events such as floods. The goal of this research is to demonstrate an initial workflow with which to characterize flood financial hazards with global datasets and crowd-sourced, non-authoritative data in ungagged river basins. This workflow includes the hydrologic and hydraulic response of the watershed to precipitation, characterized by the physics-based modeling application Gridded Surface-Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) model. In addition, data infrastructure and resources are available to approximate the human impact of flooding. Open source, volunteer geographic information (VGI) data can provide global coverage of elements at risk of flooding. Additional valuation mechanisms can then translate flood exposure into percentage and financial damage to each building. The combinations of these tools allow the authors to remotely assess flood hazards with minimal computational, temporal, and financial overhead. This combination of deterministic and stochastic modeling provides the means to quickly characterize watershed flood vulnerability and will allow emergency responders and planners to better understand the implications of flooding, both spatially and financially. In either a planning, real-time, or forecasting scenario, the system will assist the user in understanding basin flood vulnerability and increasing community resiliency and preparedness.

  12. Base Flood Elevation (BFE) Lines

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — The Base Flood Elevation (BFE) table is required for any digital data where BFE lines will be shown on the corresponding Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM). Normally if...

  13. 2013 FEMA Flood Control Structures

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — The National Flood Hazard Layer (NFHL) data incorporates all Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map(DFIRM) databases published by FEMA, and any Letters Of Map Revision...

  14. National Flood Hazard Layer (NFHL)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Emergency Management Agency, Department of Homeland Security — The National Flood Hazard Layer (NFHL) is a compilation of GIS data that comprises a nationwide digital Flood Insurance Rate Map. The GIS data and services are...

  15. FEMA Q3 Flood Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    Kansas Data Access and Support Center — The Q3 Flood Data are derived from the Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMS) published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The file is georeferenced to...

  16. FEMA DFIRM Flood Hazard Areas

    Data.gov (United States)

    Minnesota Department of Natural Resources — FEMA flood hazard delineations are used by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to designate the Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) and for insurance rating...

  17. FEMA DFIRM Base Flood Elevations

    Data.gov (United States)

    Minnesota Department of Natural Resources — The Base Flood Elevation (BFE) table is required for any digital data where BFE lines will be shown on the corresponding Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM). Normally,...

  18. FEMA 100 year Flood Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Natural Resource Agency — The Q3 Flood Data product is a digital representation of certain features of FEMA's Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) product, intended for use with desktop mapping...

  19. FEMA 100 year Flood Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Department of Resources — The Q3 Flood Data product is a digital representation of certain features of FEMA's Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) product, intended for use with desktop mapping...

  20. New mechanism under International Flood Initiative toward robustness for flood management in the Asia Pacific region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murase, M.; Yoshitani, J.; Takeuchi, K.; Koike, T.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is likely to result in increases in the frequency or intensity of extreme weather events. It is imperative that a good understanding is developed of how climate change affects the events that are reflected in hydrological extremes such as floods and how practitioners in water resources management deal with them. Since there is still major uncertainty as to how the impact of climate change affect actual water resources management, it is important to build robustness into management schemes and communities. Flood management under such variety of uncertainty favors the flexible and adaptive implementation both in top-down and bottom-up approaches. The former uses projections of global or spatially downscaled models to drive resource models and project resource impacts. The latter utilizes policy or planning tools to identify what changes in climate would be most threatening to their long-range operations. Especially for the bottom-up approaches, it is essential to identify the gap between what should be done and what has not been achieved for disaster risks. Indicators or index are appropriate tools to measure such gaps, but they are still in progress to cover the whole world. The International Flood Initiative (IFI), initiated in January 2005 by UNESCO and WMO in close cooperation with UNU and ISDR, IAHS and IAHR, has promoted an integrated approach to flood management to take advantage of floods and use of flood plains while reducing the social, environmental and economic risks. Its secretariat is located in ICHARM. The initiative objective is to support national platforms to practice evidence-based disaster risk reduction through mobilizing scientific and research networks at national, regional and international levels. The initiative is now preparing for a new mechanism to facilitate the integrated approach for flood management on the ground regionally in the Asia Pacific (IFI-AP) through monitoring, assessment and capacity building.

  1. A prediction and damage assessment model for snowmelt flood events in middle and high latitudes Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiao, C.; Huang, Q.; Chen, T.; Zhang, X.

    2017-12-01

    In the context of global warming, the snowmelt flood events in the mountainous area of the middle and high latitudes are increasingly frequent and create severe casualties and property damages. Carrying out the prediction and risk assessment of the snowmelt flood is of great importance in the water resources management, the flood warning and prevention. Based on the remote sensing and GIS techniques, the relationships of the variables influencing the snowmelt flood such as the snow area, the snow depth, the air temperature, the precipitation, the land topography and land covers are analyzed and a prediction and damage assessment model for snowmelt floods is developed. This model analyzes and predicts the flood submerging area, flood depth, flood grade, and the damages of different underlying surfaces in the study area in a given time period based on the estimation of snowmelt amount, the snowmelt runoff, the direction and velocity of the flood. Then it was used to predict a snowmelt flood event in the Ertis River Basin in northern Xinjiang, China, during March and June, 2005 and to assess its damages including the damages of roads, transmission lines, settlements caused by the floods and the possible landslides using the hydrological and meteorological data, snow parameter data, DEM data and land use data. A comparison was made between the prediction results from this model and observation data including the flood measurement and its disaster loss data, which suggests that this model performs well in predicting the strength and impact area of snowmelt flood and its damage assessment. This model will be helpful for the prediction and damage assessment of snowmelt flood events in the mountainous area in the middle and high latitudes in spring, which has great social and economic significance because it provides a relatively reliable method for snowmelt flood prediction and reduces the possible damages caused by snowmelt floods.

  2. Evaluation of urban flood damages in climate and land use changes: Case Studies from Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kefi, M.; Binaya, M. K.; Kumar, P.; Fukushi, K.

    2017-12-01

    Urbanization, changes in land use and global warming increase the threat of natural disasters such as flooding. In recent decades, it was observed a rise of intensity and frequency of flood events. The exposure both of people and the national economy to flood hazards is amplified and can induce serious economic and social damages. For this reason, local governments adopted several strategies to cope with flood risk in urban areas in particular, but a better comprehension of the flood hazard factors may enhance the efficiency of mitigating measures overall. For this research, a spatial analysis is applied to estimate future direct flood damage for 2030 in three Southeast Asian megacities: Jakarta (Indonesia), Metro-Manila (Philippines) and Hanoi (Vietnam). This comprehensive method combined flood characteristics (flood depth) obtained from flood simulation using FLO-2D, land use generated from supervised classification and remote sensing products, property value of affected buildings and flood damage rate derived from flood depth function. This function is established based on field surveys with local people affected by past flood events. Additionally, two scenarios were analyzed to simulate the future conditions. The first one is related to climate change and it is based on several General Circulation Models (GCMs). However, the second one is establish to point out the effect of adaptation strategies. The findings shows that the climate change combined with the expansion of built-up areas increase the vulnerability of urban areas to flooding and the economic damage. About 16%, 8% and 19% of flood inundation areas are expected to increase respectively in Metro-Manila, Jakarta and Hanoi. However, appropriate flood control measures can be helpful to reduce the impact of natural disaster. Furthermore, flood damage maps are generated at a large scale, which can be helpful to local stakeholders when prioritizing their mitigation strategies on urban disaster resilience.

  3. FLOOD SUSCEPTIBILITY ASSESSMENT IN THE NIRAJ BASIN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SANDA ROŞCA

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Flood susceptibility assessment in the Niraj basin. In the context of global warming and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events, it becomes evident that we have to face natural hazards, such as floods. In the area of Niraj basin this phenomenon is specific both in the spring, because of the snow melting and of the precipitations which come along with the season, and then in the summer because of the torrential precipitations but rarely in autumn and winter. The aim of this paper is to determinate the susceptibility of the zone and obtain a map which will take into consideration the possibility of a flooding. Defining vulnerability can help us understand this type of natural disasters and find the best ways to reduce it. For this purpose we use thematic layers, morphological characteristics (slope and depth fragmentation, hydrological characteristics, geology, pedology (permeability and soil texture, landuse, precipitation data, and human interventions because in this way we have the possibility to use data mining for this purpose. Data mining will allow us to extract new information based on the existing sets of data.The final result will be a thematic map that highlights the areas which are exposed to the flood. Therefore, this map can be used as a support decision for local government or business purposes.

  4. Modal abstractions of concurrent behavior

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielson, Flemming; Nanz, Sebastian; Nielson, Hanne Riis

    2011-01-01

    We present an effective algorithm for the automatic construction of finite modal transition systems as abstractions of potentially infinite concurrent processes. Modal transition systems are recognized as valuable abstractions for model checking because they allow for the validation as well as re...

  5. Pattern-Based Graph Abstraction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rensink, Arend; Zambon, Eduardo; Ehrig, H; Engels, G.; Kreowski, H.J.; Rozenberg, G.

    We present a new abstraction technique for the exploration of graph transformation systems with infinite state spaces. This technique is based on patterns, simple graphs describing structures of interest that should be preserved by the abstraction. Patterns are collected into pattern graphs, layered

  6. Abstraction by Set-Membership

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mödersheim, Sebastian Alexander

    2010-01-01

    that the set of true facts does not monotonically grow with the transitions. We extend the scope of these over-approximation methods by defining a new way of abstraction that can handle such databases, and we formally prove that the abstraction is sound. We realize a translator from a convenient specification...

  7. Abstract concepts in grounded cognition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lakens, D.

    2010-01-01

    When people think about highly abstract concepts, they draw upon concrete experiences to structure their thoughts. For example, black knights in fairytales are evil, and knights in shining armor are good. The sensory experiences black and white are used to represent the abstract concepts of good and

  8. Coupling flood forecasting and social media crowdsourcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalas, Milan; Kliment, Tomas; Salamon, Peter

    2016-04-01

    Social and mainstream media monitoring is being more and more recognized as valuable source of information in disaster management and response. The information on ongoing disasters could be detected in very short time and the social media can bring additional information to traditional data feeds (ground, remote observation schemes). Probably the biggest attempt to use the social media in the crisis management was the activation of the Digital Humanitarian Network by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in response to Typhoon Yolanda. The network of volunteers performing rapid needs & damage assessment by tagging reports posted to social media which were then used by machine learning classifiers as a training set to automatically identify tweets referring to both urgent needs and offers of help. In this work we will present the potential of coupling a social media streaming and news monitoring application ( GlobalFloodNews - www.globalfloodsystem.com) with a flood forecasting system (www.globalfloods.eu) and the geo-catalogue of the OGC services discovered in the Google Search Engine (WMS, WFS, WCS, etc.) to provide a full suite of information available to crisis management centers as fast as possible. In GlobalFloodNews we use advanced filtering of the real-time Twitter stream, where the relevant information is automatically extracted using natural language and signal processing techniques. The keyword filters are adjusted and optimized automatically using machine learning algorithms as new reports are added to the system. In order to refine the search results the forecasting system will be triggering an event-based search on the social media and OGC services relevant for crisis response (population distribution, critical infrastructure, hospitals etc.). The current version of the system makes use of USHAHIDI Crowdmap platform, which is designed to easily crowdsource information using multiple channels, including SMS, email

  9. Frequent floods in the European Alps coincide with cooler periods of the past 2500 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glur, Lukas; Wirth, Stefanie B; Büntgen, Ulf; Gilli, Adrian; Haug, Gerald H; Schär, Christoph; Beer, Jürg; Anselmetti, Flavio S

    2013-09-26

    Severe floods triggered by intense precipitation are among the most destructive natural hazards in Alpine environments, frequently causing large financial and societal damage. Potential enhanced flood occurrence due to global climate change would thus increase threat to settlements, infrastructure, and human lives in the affected regions. Yet, projections of intense precipitation exhibit major uncertainties and robust reconstructions of Alpine floods are limited to the instrumental and historical period. Here we present a 2500-year long flood reconstruction for the European Alps, based on dated sedimentary flood deposits from ten lakes in Switzerland. We show that periods with high flood frequency coincide with cool summer temperatures. This wet-cold synchronism suggests enhanced flood occurrence to be triggered by latitudinal shifts of Atlantic and Mediterranean storm tracks. This paleoclimatic perspective reveals natural analogues for varying climate conditions, and thus can contribute to a better understanding and improved projections of weather extremes under climate change.

  10. Technical abstracts: Mechanical engineering, 1990

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broesius, J.Y.

    1991-01-01

    This document is a compilation of the published, unclassified abstracts produced by mechanical engineers at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) during the calendar year 1990. Many abstracts summarize work completed and published in report form. These are UCRL-JC series documents, which include the full text of articles to be published in journals and of papers to be presented at meetings, and UCID reports, which are informal documents. Not all UCIDs contain abstracts: short summaries were generated when abstracts were not included. Technical Abstracts also provides descriptions of those documents assigned to the UCRL-MI (miscellaneous) category. These are generally viewgraphs or photographs presented at meetings. An author index is provided at the back of this volume for cross referencing

  11. Metaphor: Bridging embodiment to abstraction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamrozik, Anja; McQuire, Marguerite; Cardillo, Eileen R; Chatterjee, Anjan

    2016-08-01

    Embodied cognition accounts posit that concepts are grounded in our sensory and motor systems. An important challenge for these accounts is explaining how abstract concepts, which do not directly call upon sensory or motor information, can be informed by experience. We propose that metaphor is one important vehicle guiding the development and use of abstract concepts. Metaphors allow us to draw on concrete, familiar domains to acquire and reason about abstract concepts. Additionally, repeated metaphoric use drawing on particular aspects of concrete experience can result in the development of new abstract representations. These abstractions, which are derived from embodied experience but lack much of the sensorimotor information associated with it, can then be flexibly applied to understand new situations.

  12. Technical abstracts: Mechanical engineering, 1990

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Broesius, J.Y. (comp.)

    1991-03-01

    This document is a compilation of the published, unclassified abstracts produced by mechanical engineers at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) during the calendar year 1990. Many abstracts summarize work completed and published in report form. These are UCRL-JC series documents, which include the full text of articles to be published in journals and of papers to be presented at meetings, and UCID reports, which are informal documents. Not all UCIDs contain abstracts: short summaries were generated when abstracts were not included. Technical Abstracts also provides descriptions of those documents assigned to the UCRL-MI (miscellaneous) category. These are generally viewgraphs or photographs presented at meetings. An author index is provided at the back of this volume for cross referencing.

  13. Abstract Interpretation and Attribute Gramars

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosendahl, Mads

    The objective of this thesis is to explore the connections between abstract interpretation and attribute grammars as frameworks in program analysis. Abstract interpretation is a semantics-based program analysis method. A large class of data flow analysis problems can be expressed as non-standard ......The objective of this thesis is to explore the connections between abstract interpretation and attribute grammars as frameworks in program analysis. Abstract interpretation is a semantics-based program analysis method. A large class of data flow analysis problems can be expressed as non......-standard semantics where the ``meaning'' contains information about the runtime behaviour of programs. In an abstract interpretation the analysis is proved correct by relating it to the usual semantics for the language. Attribute grammars provide a method and notation to specify code generation and program analysis...

  14. Flood Wave Propagation

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 6; Issue 5. Flood Wave Propagation-The Saint Venant Equations. P P Mujumdar. General Article Volume 6 Issue 5 May 2001 pp 66-73. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link: http://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/reso/006/05/0066-0073 ...

  15. Flood model for Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palán, Ladislav; Punčochář, Petr

    2017-04-01

    Looking on the impact of flooding from the World-wide perspective, in last 50 years flooding has caused over 460,000 fatalities and caused serious material damage. Combining economic loss from ten costliest flood events (from the same period) returns a loss (in the present value) exceeding 300bn USD. Locally, in Brazil, flood is the most damaging natural peril with alarming increase of events frequencies as 5 out of the 10 biggest flood losses ever recorded have occurred after 2009. The amount of economic and insured losses particularly caused by various flood types was the key driver of the local probabilistic flood model development. Considering the area of Brazil (being 5th biggest country in the World) and the scattered distribution of insured exposure, a domain covered by the model was limited to the entire state of Sao Paolo and 53 additional regions. The model quantifies losses on approx. 90 % of exposure (for regular property lines) of key insurers. Based on detailed exposure analysis, Impact Forecasting has developed this tool using long term local hydrological data series (Agencia Nacional de Aguas) from riverine gauge stations and digital elevation model (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística). To provide most accurate representation of local hydrological behaviour needed for the nature of probabilistic simulation, a hydrological data processing focused on frequency analyses of seasonal peak flows - done by fitting appropriate extreme value statistical distribution and stochastic event set generation consisting of synthetically derived flood events respecting realistic spatial and frequency patterns visible in entire period of hydrological observation. Data were tested for homogeneity, consistency and for any significant breakpoint occurrence in time series so the entire observation or only its subparts were used for further analysis. The realistic spatial patterns of stochastic events are reproduced through the innovative use of d-vine copula

  16. Modeling tools for the assessment of microbiological risks during floods: a review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collender, Philip; Yang, Wen; Stieglitz, Marc; Remais, Justin

    2015-04-01

    Floods are a major, recurring source of harm to global economies and public health. Projected increases in the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events under future climate change, coupled with continued urbanization in areas with high risk of floods, may exacerbate future impacts of flooding. Improved flood risk management is essential to support global development, poverty reduction and public health, and is likely to be a crucial aspect of climate change adaptation. Importantly, floods can facilitate the transmission of waterborne pathogens by changing social conditions (overcrowding among displaced populations, interruption of public health services), imposing physical challenges to infrastructure (sewerage overflow, reduced capacity to treat drinking water), and altering fate and transport of pathogens (transport into waterways from overland flow, resuspension of settled contaminants) during and after flood conditions. Hydrological and hydrodynamic models are capable of generating quantitative characterizations of microbiological risks associated with flooding, while accounting for these diverse and at times competing physical and biological processes. Despite a few applications of such models to the quantification of microbiological risks associated with floods, there exists limited guidance as to the relative capabilities, and limitations, of existing modeling platforms when used for this purpose. Here, we review 17 commonly used flood and water quality modeling tools that have demonstrated or implicit capabilities of mechanistically representing and quantifying microbial risk during flood conditions. We compare models with respect to their capabilities of generating outputs that describe physical and microbial conditions during floods, such as concentration or load of non-cohesive sediments or pathogens, and the dynamics of high flow conditions. Recommendations are presented for the application of specific modeling tools for assessing

  17. Influence of Flood Detention Capability in Flood Prevention for Flood Disaster of Depression Area

    OpenAIRE

    Chia Lin Chan; Yi Ju Yang; Chih Chin Yang

    2011-01-01

    Rainfall records of rainfall station including the rainfall potential per hour and rainfall mass of five heavy storms are explored, respectively from 2001 to 2010. The rationalization formula is to investigate the capability of flood peak duration of flood detention pond in different rainfall conditions. The stable flood detention model is also proposed by using system dynamic control theory to get the message of flood detention pond in this research. When rainfall freque...

  18. “Expect More Floods In 2013”: An analysis of flood preparedness in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Chi-square test was used to establish significant variations in the level of flood preparedness, the level of awareness of NIMET flood warning, flood risk perception and subscription to flood insurance. Findings show that the levels of awareness about NIMET flood warning (36.4%), flood risk perception (24.4%), flood ...

  19. Should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Coughlan de Perez

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available In light of strong encouragement for disaster managers to use climate services for flood preparation, we question whether seasonal rainfall forecasts should indeed be used as indicators of the likelihood of flooding. Here, we investigate the primary indicators of flooding at the seasonal timescale across sub-Saharan Africa. Given the sparsity of hydrological observations, we input bias-corrected reanalysis rainfall into the Global Flood Awareness System to identify seasonal indicators of floodiness. Results demonstrate that in some regions of western, central, and eastern Africa with typically wet climates, even a perfect tercile forecast of seasonal total rainfall would provide little to no indication of the seasonal likelihood of flooding. The number of extreme events within a season shows the highest correlations with floodiness consistently across regions. Otherwise, results vary across climate regimes: floodiness in arid regions in southern and eastern Africa shows the strongest correlations with seasonal average soil moisture and seasonal total rainfall. Floodiness in wetter climates of western and central Africa and Madagascar shows the strongest relationship with measures of the intensity of seasonal rainfall. Measures of rainfall patterns, such as the length of dry spells, are least related to seasonal floodiness across the continent. Ultimately, identifying the drivers of seasonal flooding can be used to improve forecast information for flood preparedness and to avoid misleading decision-makers.

  20. GIS Support for Flood Rescue

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liang, Gengsheng; Mioc, Darka; Anton, François

    2007-01-01

    Under flood events, the ground traffic is blocked in and around the flooded area due to damages to roads and bridges. The traditional transportation network may not always help people to make a right decision for evacuation. In order to provide dynamic road information needed for flood rescue, we...... to retrieve the shortest and safest route in Fredericton road network during flood event. It enables users to make a timely decision for flood rescue. We are using Oracle Spatial to deal with emergency situations that can be applied to other constrained network applications as well....

  1. A free and open source QGIS plugin for flood risk analysis: FloodRisk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albano, Raffaele; Sole, Aurelia; Mancusi, Leonardo

    2016-04-01

    An analysis of global statistics shows a substantial increase in flood damage over the past few decades. Moreover, it is expected that flood risk will continue to rise due to the combined effect of increasing numbers of people and economic assets in risk-prone areas and the effects of climate change. In order to increase the resilience of European economies and societies, the improvement of risk assessment and management has been pursued in the last years. This results in a wide range of flood analysis models of different complexities with substantial differences in underlying components needed for its implementation, as geographical, hydrological and social differences demand specific approaches in the different countries. At present, it is emerging the need of promote the creation of open, transparent, reliable and extensible tools for a comprehensive, context-specific and applicable flood risk analysis. In this context, the free and open-source Quantum GIS (QGIS) plugin "FloodRisk" is a good starting point to address this objective. The vision of the developers of this free and open source software (FOSS) is to combine the main features of state-of-the-art science, collaboration, transparency and interoperability in an initiative to assess and communicate flood risk worldwide and to assist authorities to facilitate the quality and fairness of flood risk management at multiple scales. Among the scientific community, this type of activity can be labelled as "participatory research", intended as adopting a set of techniques that "are interactive and collaborative" and reproducible, "providing a meaningful research experience that both promotes learning and generates knowledge and research data through a process of guided discovery"' (Albano et al., 2015). Moreover, this FOSS geospatial approach can lowering the financial barriers to understanding risks at national and sub-national levels through a spatio-temporal domain and can provide better and more complete

  2. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Under Different Drainage and Flooding Regimes of Cultivated Peatlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Jing; VanZomeren, Christine M.; Inglett, Kanika S.; Wright, Alan L.; Clark, Mark W.; Reddy, K. R.

    2017-11-01

    Globally, approximately 10-20% of peatlands have been drained for agricultural purposes. A strategy to protect peatlands and mitigate carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, while continuing agricultural production, is the use of intermittent flooding and drainage. A potential drawback of this strategy could be increases in methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. The objective of this study was to compare greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from peatlands under various flooding-drainage cycles. A laboratory study was performed using intact soil cores subjected to different durations of flooding and drainage for 6 months. Average daily emissions of CO2 and N2O were significantly higher (P accounting for more than 92% of overall global warming potential. Global warming potential was inversely proportional to the flooding period, indicating that prolonging the flooding period of peatlands would help mitigate soil oxidation and GHG emissions and enhance sustainability of these agricultural peatlands.

  3. Selected Translated Abstracts of Chinese-Language Climate Change Publications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cushman, R.M.; Burtis, M.D.

    1999-05-01

    This report contains English-translated abstracts of important Chinese-language literature concerning global climate change for the years 1995-1998. This body of literature includes the topics of adaptation, ancient climate change, climate variation, the East Asia monsoon, historical climate change, impacts, modeling, and radiation and trace-gas emissions. In addition to the biological citations and abstracts translated into English, this report presents the original citations and abstracts in Chinese. Author and title indexes are included to assist the reader in locating abstracts of particular interest.

  4. Nuclear energy and environment: abstracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-01-01

    In this meeting on nuclear energy and environment, abstracts on the following subjects were presented: nuclear fuels; materials; radioisotopes and its applications; reactors and nuclear power plants; regulations, energy and environment; radioactive wastes; and analytical techniques

  5. Hospital infection prevention and control issues relevant to extensive floods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apisarnthanarak, Anucha; Mundy, Linda M; Khawcharoenporn, Thana; Glen Mayhall, C

    2013-02-01

    The devastating clinical and economic implications of floods exemplify the need for effective global infection prevention and control (IPC) strategies for natural disasters. Reopening of hospitals after excessive flooding requires a balance between meeting the medical needs of the surrounding communities and restoration of a safe hospital environment. Postflood hospital preparedness plans are a key issue for infection control epidemiologists, healthcare providers, patients, and hospital administrators. We provide recent IPC experiences related to reopening of a hospital after extensive black-water floods necessitated hospital closures in Thailand and the United States. These experiences provide a foundation for the future design, execution, and analysis of black-water flood preparedness plans by IPC stakeholders.

  6. Analysis of coastal protection under rising flood risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan J. Lickley

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Infrastructure located along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts is exposed to rising risk of flooding from sea level rise, increasing storm surge, and subsidence. In these circumstances coastal management commonly based on 100-year flood maps assuming current climatology is no longer adequate. A dynamic programming cost–benefit analysis is applied to the adaptation decision, illustrated by application to an energy facility in Galveston Bay. Projections of several global climate models provide inputs to estimates of the change in hurricane and storm surge activity as well as the increase in sea level. The projected rise in physical flood risk is combined with estimates of flood damage and protection costs in an analysis of the multi-period nature of adaptation choice. The result is a planning method, using dynamic programming, which is appropriate for investment and abandonment decisions under rising coastal risk.

  7. Error Analysis of Satellite Precipitation-Driven Modeling of Flood Events in Complex Alpine Terrain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yiwen Mei

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The error in satellite precipitation-driven complex terrain flood simulations is characterized in this study for eight different global satellite products and 128 flood events over the Eastern Italian Alps. The flood events are grouped according to two flood types: rain floods and flash floods. The satellite precipitation products and runoff simulations are evaluated based on systematic and random error metrics applied on the matched event pairs and basin-scale event properties (i.e., rainfall and runoff cumulative depth and time series shape. Overall, error characteristics exhibit dependency on the flood type. Generally, timing of the event precipitation mass center and dispersion of the time series derived from satellite precipitation exhibits good agreement with the reference; the cumulative depth is mostly underestimated. The study shows a dampening effect in both systematic and random error components of the satellite-driven hydrograph relative to the satellite-retrieved hyetograph. The systematic error in shape of the time series shows a significant dampening effect. The random error dampening effect is less pronounced for the flash flood events and the rain flood events with a high runoff coefficient. This event-based analysis of the satellite precipitation error propagation in flood modeling sheds light on the application of satellite precipitation in mountain flood hydrology.

  8. Citizen involvement in flood risk governance: flood groups and networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Twigger-Ross Clare

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Over the past decade has been a policy shift withinUK flood risk management towards localism with an emphasis on communities taking ownership of flood risk. There is also an increased focus on resilience and, more specifically, on community resilience to flooding. This paper draws on research carried out for UK Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs to evaluate the Flood Resilience Community Pathfinder (FRCP scheme in England. Resilience is conceptualised as multidimensional and linked to exisiting capacities within a community. Creating resilience to flooding is an ongoing process of adaptation, learning from past events and preparing for future risks. This paper focusses on the development of formal and informal institutions to support improved flood risk management: institutional resilience capacity. It includes new institutions: e.g. flood groups, as well as activities that help to build inter- and intra- institutional resilience capacity e.g. community flood planning. The pathfinder scheme consisted of 13 projects across England led by local authorities aimed at developing community resilience to flood risk between 2013 – 2015. This paper discusses the nature and structure of flood groups, the process of their development, and the extent of their linkages with formal institutions, drawing out the barriers and facilitators to developing institutional resilience at the local level.

  9. Extreme weather: Subtropical floods and tropical cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaevitz, Daniel A.

    Extreme weather events have a large effect on society. As such, it is important to understand these events and to project how they may change in a future, warmer climate. The aim of this thesis is to develop a deeper understanding of two types of extreme weather events: subtropical floods and tropical cyclones (TCs). In the subtropics, the latitude is high enough that quasi-geostrophic dynamics are at least qualitatively relevant, while low enough that moisture may be abundant and convection strong. Extratropical extreme precipitation events are usually associated with large-scale flow disturbances, strong ascent, and large latent heat release. In the first part of this thesis, I examine the possible triggering of convection by the large-scale dynamics and investigate the coupling between the two. Specifically two examples of extreme precipitation events in the subtropics are analyzed, the 2010 and 2014 floods of India and Pakistan and the 2015 flood of Texas and Oklahoma. I invert the quasi-geostrophic omega equation to decompose the large-scale vertical motion profile to components due to synoptic forcing and diabatic heating. Additionally, I present model results from within the Column Quasi-Geostrophic framework. A single column model and cloud-revolving model are forced with the large-scale forcings (other than large-scale vertical motion) computed from the quasi-geostrophic omega equation with input data from a reanalysis data set, and the large-scale vertical motion is diagnosed interactively with the simulated convection. It is found that convection was triggered primarily by mechanically forced orographic ascent over the Himalayas during the India/Pakistan flood and by upper-level Potential Vorticity disturbances during the Texas/Oklahoma flood. Furthermore, a climate attribution analysis was conducted for the Texas/Oklahoma flood and it is found that anthropogenic climate change was responsible for a small amount of rainfall during the event but the

  10. Finite element analysis of levee stability for flood early warning systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Melnikova, N.B.

    2014-01-01

    Floods are common natural disasters frequently taking their dramatic toll in global warming conditions. Hundreds and thousands kilometres of sensor-monitored flood protection barriers are built at the coastlines all over the world. The power of computational science helps levee maintainers in

  11. A GIS based flood risk mapping along the Niger-Benue river basin in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    They have become common occurrences in every part Nigeria and the recorded impacts of flooding on the inhabitants are alarming, causing hundreds of deaths and rendering thousands homeless. The impact of floods on people globally has led to the development of mitigation measures that could reduce the associated ...

  12. Coastal marsh die-off and reduced attenuation of coastal floods: a model analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Temmerman, S.; de Vries, M.B.; Bouma, T.J.

    2012-01-01

    Global climate change is expected to increase the risks of coastal flood disasters due to accelerating sea level rise and increasing intensity and frequency of storm surges. Coastal marsh vegetation is considered, on the one hand, to increase resistance to a landward propagating flood wave, such as

  13. Survival and bioturbation effects of common marine macrofauna in coastal soils newly flooded with seawater

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Valdemarsen, Thomas Bruun; Quintana, Cintia Organo; Thorsen, Sandra Walløe

    Low-lying coastal soils are at risk of being permanently flooded due to global sea level rise, but how will these areas develop as habitat for marine species? We conducted an experiment to evaluate the habitat quality of flooded soils for common marine polychaetes (Marenzelleria viridis, Nereis d...

  14. 2002 Industry Analysis Research Paper: Global Environment, Global Industry, and Global Security: Managing the Crossroads

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    2002 Industry Analysis Research Paper Global Environment, Global Industry, and Global Security: Managing the Crossroads Abstract. The events of...Industry Analysis Research Paper : Global Environment, Global Industry, and Global Security: Managing the Crossroads 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT

  15. Aligning Natural Resource Conservation and Flood Hazard Mitigation in California.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juliano Calil

    Full Text Available Flooding is the most common and damaging of all natural disasters in the United States, and was a factor in almost all declared disasters in U.S.Direct flood losses in the U.S. in 2011 totaled $8.41 billion and flood damage has also been on the rise globally over the past century. The National Flood Insurance Program paid out more than $38 billion in claims since its inception in 1968, more than a third of which has gone to the one percent of policies that experienced multiple losses and are classified as "repetitive loss." During the same period, the loss of coastal wetlands and other natural habitat has continued, and funds for conservation and restoration of these habitats are very limited. This study demonstrates that flood losses could be mitigated through action that meets both flood risk reduction and conservation objectives. We found that there are at least 11,243km2 of land in coastal California, which is both flood-prone and has natural resource conservation value, and where a property/structure buyout and habitat restoration project could meet multiple objectives. For example, our results show that in Sonoma County, the extent of land that meets these criteria is 564km2. Further, we explore flood mitigation grant programs that can be a significant source of funds to such projects. We demonstrate that government funded buyouts followed by restoration of targeted lands can support social, environmental, and economic objectives: reduction of flood exposure, restoration of natural resources, and efficient use of limited governmental funds.

  16. Flooding and Mental Health: A Systematic Mapping Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, Ana; Black, John; Jones, Mairwen; Wilson, Leigh; Salvador-Carulla, Luis; Astell-Burt, Thomas; Black, Deborah

    2015-01-01

    Background Floods are the most common type of global natural disaster. Floods have a negative impact on mental health. Comprehensive evaluation and review of the literature are lacking. Objective To systematically map and review available scientific evidence on mental health impacts of floods caused by extended periods of heavy rain in river catchments. Methods We performed a systematic mapping review of published scientific literature in five languages for mixed studies on floods and mental health. PUBMED and Web of Science were searched to identify all relevant articles from 1994 to May 2014 (no restrictions). Results The electronic search strategy identified 1331 potentially relevant papers. Finally, 83 papers met the inclusion criteria. Four broad areas are identified: i) the main mental health disorders—post-traumatic stress disorder, depression and anxiety; ii] the factors associated with mental health among those affected by floods; iii) the narratives associated with flooding, which focuses on the long-term impacts of flooding on mental health as a consequence of the secondary stressors; and iv) the management actions identified. The quantitative and qualitative studies have consistent findings. However, very few studies have used mixed methods to quantify the size of the mental health burden as well as exploration of in-depth narratives. Methodological limitations include control of potential confounders and short-term follow up. Limitations Floods following extreme events were excluded from our review. Conclusions Although the level of exposure to floods has been systematically associated with mental health problems, the paucity of longitudinal studies and lack of confounding controls precludes strong conclusions. Implications We recommend that future research in this area include mixed-method studies that are purposefully designed, using more rigorous methods. Studies should also focus on vulnerable groups and include analyses of policy and practical

  17. Flooding and mental health: a systematic mapping review.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Fernandez

    Full Text Available Floods are the most common type of global natural disaster. Floods have a negative impact on mental health. Comprehensive evaluation and review of the literature are lacking.To systematically map and review available scientific evidence on mental health impacts of floods caused by extended periods of heavy rain in river catchments.We performed a systematic mapping review of published scientific literature in five languages for mixed studies on floods and mental health. PUBMED and Web of Science were searched to identify all relevant articles from 1994 to May 2014 (no restrictions.The electronic search strategy identified 1331 potentially relevant papers. Finally, 83 papers met the inclusion criteria. Four broad areas are identified: i the main mental health disorders-post-traumatic stress disorder, depression and anxiety; ii] the factors associated with mental health among those affected by floods; iii the narratives associated with flooding, which focuses on the long-term impacts of flooding on mental health as a consequence of the secondary stressors; and iv the management actions identified. The quantitative and qualitative studies have consistent findings. However, very few studies have used mixed methods to quantify the size of the mental health burden as well as exploration of in-depth narratives. Methodological limitations include control of potential confounders and short-term follow up.Floods following extreme events were excluded from our review.Although the level of exposure to floods has been systematically associated with mental health problems, the paucity of longitudinal studies and lack of confounding controls precludes strong conclusions.We recommend that future research in this area include mixed-method studies that are purposefully designed, using more rigorous methods. Studies should also focus on vulnerable groups and include analyses of policy and practical responses.

  18. FLOOD 1. Final Report

    OpenAIRE

    Adams, Brian; Bloomfield, John; Gallagher, Alexander; Jackson, Christopher; Rutter, Helen; Williams, Ann

    2008-01-01

    The FLOOD 1 project was carried out by the French Geological Survey (BRGM), the University of Brighton and the British Geological Survey from April 2004 to June 2008 inclusive. It was carried out under the INTERREG IIIA initiative of the European Union which provided 50% of the funding, the remainder coming from the three project partners and a number of industrial partners who also formed the Project Advisory Group. The project was set up to develop appropriate early warning s...

  19. Floods and tsunamis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llewellyn, Mark

    2006-06-01

    Floods and tsunamis cause few severe injuries, but those injuries can overwhelm local areas, depending on the magnitude of the disaster. Most injuries are extremity fractures, lacerations, and sprains. Because of the mechanism of soft tissue and bone injuries, infection is a significant risk. Aspiration pneumonias are also associated with tsunamis. Appropriate precautionary interventions prevent communicable dis-ease outbreaks. Psychosocial health issues must be considered.

  20. Struggle in the flood: tree responses to flooding stress in four tropical floodplain systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parolin, Pia; Wittmann, Florian

    2010-01-01

    In the context of the 200th anniversary of Charles Darwin's birth in 1809, this study discusses the variation in structure and adaptation associated with survival and reproductive success in the face of environmental stresses in the trees of tropical floodplains. We provide a comparative review on the responses to flooding stress in the trees of freshwater wetlands in tropical environments. The four large wetlands we evaluate are: (i) Central Amazonian floodplains in South America, (ii) the Okavango Delta in Africa, (iii) the Mekong floodplains of Asia and (iv) the floodplains of Northern Australia. They each have a predictable 'flood pulse'. Although flooding height varies between the ecosystems, the annual pulse is a major driving force influencing all living organisms and a source of stress for which specialized adaptations for survival are required. The need for trees to survive an annual flood pulse has given rise to a large variety of adaptations. However, phenological responses to the flood are similar in the four ecosystems. Deciduous and evergreen species respond with leaf shedding, although sap flow remains active for most of the year. Growth depends on adequate carbohydrate supply. Physiological adaptations (anaerobic metabolism, starch accumulation) are also required. Data concerning the ecophysiology and adaptations of trees in floodplain forests worldwide are extremely scarce. For successful floodplain conservation, more information is needed, ideally through a globally co-ordinated study using reproducible comparative methods. In the light of climatic change, with increasing drought, decreased groundwater availability and flooding periodicities, this knowledge is needed ever more urgently to facilitate fast and appropriate management responses to large-scale environmental change.

  1. The development of flood map in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zakaria, Siti Fairus; Zin, Rosli Mohamad; Mohamad, Ismail; Balubaid, Saeed; Mydin, Shaik Hussein; MDR, E. M. Roodienyanto

    2017-11-01

    In Malaysia, flash floods are common occurrences throughout the year in flood prone areas. In terms of flood extent, flash floods affect smaller areas but because of its tendency to occur in densely urbanized areas, the value of damaged property is high and disruption to traffic flow and businesses are substantial. However, in river floods especially the river floods of Kelantan and Pahang, the flood extent is widespread and can extend over 1,000 square kilometers. Although the value of property and density of affected population is lower, the damage inflicted by these floods can also be high because the area affected is large. In order to combat these floods, various flood mitigation measures have been carried out. Structural flood mitigation alone can only provide protection levels from 10 to 100 years Average Recurrence Intervals (ARI). One of the economically effective non-structural approaches in flood mitigation and flood management is using a geospatial technology which involves flood forecasting and warning services to the flood prone areas. This approach which involves the use of Geographical Information Flood Forecasting system also includes the generation of a series of flood maps. There are three types of flood maps namely Flood Hazard Map, Flood Risk Map and Flood Evacuation Map. Flood Hazard Map is used to determine areas susceptible to flooding when discharge from a stream exceeds the bank-full stage. Early warnings of incoming flood events will enable the flood victims to prepare themselves before flooding occurs. Properties and life's can be saved by keeping their movable properties above the flood levels and if necessary, an early evacuation from the area. With respect to flood fighting, an early warning with reference through a series of flood maps including flood hazard map, flood risk map and flood evacuation map of the approaching flood should be able to alert the organization in charge of the flood fighting actions and the authority to

  2. Impacts of adaptive flood management strategies on the Socio-Hydrological system in Ganges - Brahmaputra river basin, Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sung, K.; Jeong, H.; Sangwan, N.; Yu, D. J.

    2017-12-01

    Human societies have tried to prevent floods by building robust infrastructure such as levees or dams. However, some scholars raise a doubt to this approach because of a lack of adaptiveness to environmental and societal changes in a long-term. Thus, a growing number of studies now suggest adopting new strategies in flood management to reinforce an adapt capacity to the long-term flood risk. This study addresses this issue by developing a conceptual mathematical model exploring how flood management strategies effect to the dynamics human-flood interaction, ultimately the flood resilience in a long-term. Especially, our model is motivated by the community-based flood protection system in southwest coastal area in Bangladesh. We developed several conceptual flood management strategies and investigated the interplay between those strategies and community's capacity to cope with floods. We additionally analyzed how external disturbances (sea level rise, water tide level change, and outside economic development) alter the adaptive capacity to flood risks. The results of this study reveal that the conventional flood management has potential vulnerabilities as external disturbances increase. Our results also highlight the needs of the adaptive strategy as a new paradigm in flood management which is able to feedback to the social and hydrological conditions. These findings provide insights on the resilience-based, adaptive strategies which can build flood resilience under global change.

  3. Mechanical Engineering Department technical abstracts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1984-07-01

    The Mechanical Engineering Department publishes abstracts twice a year to inform readers of the broad range of technical activities in the Department, and to promote an exchange of ideas. Details of the work covered by an abstract may be obtained by contacting the author(s). General information about the current role and activities of each of the Department's seven divisions precedes the technical abstracts. Further information about a division's work may be obtained from the division leader, whose name is given at the end of each divisional summary. The Department's seven divisions are as follows: Nuclear Test Engineering Division, Nuclear Explosives Engineering Division, Weapons Engineering Division, Energy Systems Engineering Division, Engineering Sciences Division, Magnetic Fusion Engineering Division and Materials Fabrication Division.

  4. Mechanical Engineering Department technical abstracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-01-01

    The Mechanical Engineering Department publishes abstracts twice a year to inform readers of the broad range of technical activities in the Department, and to promote an exchange of ideas. Details of the work covered by an abstract may be obtained by contacting the author(s). General information about the current role and activities of each of the Department's seven divisions precedes the technical abstracts. Further information about a division's work may be obtained from the division leader, whose name is given at the end of each divisional summary. The Department's seven divisions are as follows: Nuclear Test Engineering Division, Nuclear Explosives Engineering Division, Weapons Engineering Division, Energy Systems Engineering Division, Engineering Sciences Division, Magnetic Fusion Engineering Division and Materials Fabrication Division

  5. Flood Deposition Analysis of Northern California's Eel River (Flood- DANCER)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahlgren, S.; Bauman, P. D.; Dillon, R. J.; Gallagher, N.; Jamison, M. E.; King, A.; Lee, J.; Siwicke, K. A.; Harris, C. K.; Wheatcroft, R. A.; Borgeld, J. C.; Goldthwait, S. A.

    2006-12-01

    Characterizing and quantifying the fate of river born sediment is critical to our understanding of sediment supply and erosion in impacted coastal areas. Strata deposited in coastal zones provide an invaluable record of recent and historical environmental events. The Eel River in northern California has one of the highest sediment yields of any North American river and has preserved evidence of the impact of recent flood events. Previous research has documented sediment deposits associated with Eel River flood events in January 1995, March 1995, and January 1997. These deposits were found north of the river mouth on the mid shelf in water depths from 50-100 m. Sediment strata were up to 5-10 cm thick and were composed of fine to very fine grained silts and clays. Until recently, no model had been able to correctly reproduce the sediment deposits associated with these floods. In 2005, Harris et al. developed a model that accurately represents the volume and location of the flood deposit associated with the January 1997 event. However, rigorous assessment of the predictive capability of this model requires that a new flood of the Eel River be used as a test case. During the winter of 2005-06 the Eel River rose above flood stage reaching discharge similar to the flood of January 1995 which resulted in flood sedimentation on the Eel River shelf. A flood-related deposit 1-5 cm thick was found in water depths of 60-90 m approximately 20-35 km north of the river mouth. Flood deposits were recognized in box cores collected in the months following the flood. As in previously studied events, flood- related strata near the sediment surface were recognized in core x-radiographs, resistivity and porosity profiles, and were composed of fine to very fine grained silts and clays. In addition, surface flood sediments were associated with lower concentrations of benthic foraminifera compared with deeper sediments. The January 2006 flood deposit was similar in thickness to the

  6. Elements of abstract harmonic analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Bachman, George

    2013-01-01

    Elements of Abstract Harmonic Analysis provides an introduction to the fundamental concepts and basic theorems of abstract harmonic analysis. In order to give a reasonably complete and self-contained introduction to the subject, most of the proofs have been presented in great detail thereby making the development understandable to a very wide audience. Exercises have been supplied at the end of each chapter. Some of these are meant to extend the theory slightly while others should serve to test the reader's understanding of the material presented. The first chapter and part of the second give

  7. Abstracts from Rambam Research Day

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shraga Blazer

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available [Extract] This Supplement of Rambam Maimonides Medical Journal presents the abstracts from the Eleventh Rambam Research Day. These abstracts represent the newest basic and clinical research coming out of Rambam Health Care Campus—research that is the oxygen for education and development of today’s generation of physicians. Hence, the research presented on Rambam Research Day is a foundation for future generations to understand patient needs and improve treatment modalities. Bringing research from the bench to the bedside and from the bedside to the community is at the heart of Maimonides’ scholarly and ethical legacy.

  8. 107 SPOUSAL RAPE IN A GLOBALIZED WORLD Abstract Sexual ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Fr. Ikenga

    comradeship, the ideal union between the sexes that shall result in the highest development of the race'1. From time ... Justice in England in his book, History of the Pleas of the Crown 1736 and often quoted that: 'The .... posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression, substance abuse, she may have suicidal impulses,.

  9. Page | 107 SPOUSAL RAPE IN A GLOBALIZED WORLD Abstract ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Fr. Ikenga

    After the sexual violation, such woman may suffer insomnia, posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression, substance abuse, she may have suicidal impulses, chronic physical health problems and be exposed to varying degrees of victimization, she may be disorganized at first because of the rape and later reorganize ...

  10. Failure probability of regional flood defences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lendering, K.T.; lang, M.; Klijn, F.; Samuels, P.

    2016-01-01

    Polders in the Netherlands are protected from flooding by primary and regional flood defence systems. During the last decade, scientific research in flood risk focused on the development of a probabilistic approach to quantify the probability of flooding of the primary flood defence system. This

  11. Enhancing flood risk system robustness in practice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mens, M.J.P.; Klijn, F.; Schielen, Ralph Mathias Johannes; Klijn, F.; Schweckendiek, T.

    2012-01-01

    Decisions about flood risk management are usually based on the reduction in flood risk compared to the implementation costs of the strategy. It is common practice to express flood risk (the combination of flood probabilities and potential flood damages) into a single number. The downside of this

  12. Varieties of flood risk governance in Europe : how do countries respond to driving forces and what explains institutional change?

    OpenAIRE

    Wiering, Mark; Kaufmann, M.; Mees, H.; Schellenberger, T.; Ganzevoort, W.; Hegger, D. L. T.; Larrue, C.; Matczak, P.

    2017-01-01

    Abstract: Floods are challenging the resilience of societies all over the world. In many countries there are discussions on diversifying the strategies for flood risk management, which implies some sort of policy change. To understand the possibilities of such change, a thorough understanding of the forces of stability and change of underlying governance arrangements is required. It follows from the path dependency literature that countries which rely strongly on flood infrastructures, as par...

  13. Development of a flood-induced health risk prediction model for Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, D.; Block, P. J.

    2017-12-01

    Globally, many floods occur in developing or tropical regions where the impact on public health is substantial, including death and injury, drinking water, endemic disease, and so on. Although these flood impacts on public health have been investigated, integrated management of floods and flood-induced health risks is technically and institutionally limited. Specifically, while the use of climatic and hydrologic forecasts for disaster management has been highlighted, analogous predictions for forecasting the magnitude and impact of health risks are lacking, as is the infrastructure for health early warning systems, particularly in developing countries. In this study, we develop flood-induced health risk prediction model for African regions using season-ahead flood predictions with climate drivers and a variety of physical and socio-economic information, such as local hazard, exposure, resilience, and health vulnerability indicators. Skillful prediction of flood and flood-induced health risks can contribute to practical pre- and post-disaster responses in both local- and global-scales, and may eventually be integrated into multi-hazard early warning systems for informed advanced planning and management. This is especially attractive for areas with limited observations and/or little capacity to develop flood-induced health risk warning systems.

  14. Toward more flood resilience: Is a diversification of flood risk management strategies the way forward?

    OpenAIRE

    Hegger, D.L.T.; Driessen, P.P.J.; Wiering, Mark; van Rijswick, H.F.M.W.; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Matczak, Piotr; Crabbé, Ann; Raadgever, G.T.; Bakker, M.H.N.; Priest, Sally; Larrue, Corinne; Ek, Kristina

    2016-01-01

    European countries face increasing flood risks due to urbanization, increase of exposure and damage potential, and the effects of climate change. In literature and in practice, it is argued that a diversification of strategies for flood risk management (FRM) - including flood risk prevention (through pro-active spatial planning), flood defense, flood risk mitigation, flood preparation and flood recovery - makes countries more flood resilient. While this thesis is plausible, it should still be...

  15. A rainfall design method for spatial flood risk assessment: considering multiple flood sources

    OpenAIRE

    X. Jiang; H. Tatano

    2015-01-01

    Information about the spatial distribution of flood risk is important for integrated urban flood risk management. Focusing on urban areas, spatial flood risk assessment must reflect all risk information derived from multiple flood sources: rivers, drainage, coastal flooding etc. that may affect the area. However, conventional flood risk assessment deals with each flood source independently, which leads to an underestimation of flood risk in the floodplain. E...

  16. Abstract Interpretation of Mobile Ambients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, René Rydhof; Jensen, J. G.; Nielson, Flemming

    1999-01-01

    We demonstrate that abstract interpretation is useful for analysing calculi of computation such as the ambient calculus (which is based on the p-calculus); more importantly, we show that the entire development can be expressed in a constraint-based formalism that is becoming exceedingly popular...

  17. Abstract Résumé

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Abstract. To describe the infant feeding practices in the general population in Uganda, and to assess the impact of maternal HIV status on these ... to-child transmission of HIV should re-enforce counselling activities to address the issue of early weaning by HIV-infected women, ..... A study in Zimbabwe yielded similar results,.

  18. Biocards and Level of Abstraction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lenau, Torben Anker; Keshwani, Sonal; Chakrabarti, Amaresh

    2015-01-01

    Biocards are formal descriptions of biological phenomena and their underlying functional principles. They are used in bioinspired design to document search results and to communicate the findings for use in the further design process. The present study explored the effect of abstraction level use...

  19. IRAP 2006, Book of Abstracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    This publications related with Hacettepe University, Turkish Atomic Energy Authority, The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey, International Atomic Energy Agency, CEA-Saclay, CEA-Saclay Drecam, ANKAmall Shopping Center and Ion Beam Applications Industrial that was held in Antalya, Turkey, 23-28 September 2006. A separate abstract was prepared for each paper

  20. Abstract Résumé

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    1 juil. 2013 ... Abstract. In Senegal, where HIV prevalence is less than 1% and stigma remains important, 40% of marriages are polygamic. The purpose of this article is to describe and analyze the motivations, benefits and constraints related to HIV disclosure, and to explore specific situations related to polygamy.

  1. Metaphoric Images from Abstract Concepts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vizmuller-Zocco, Jana

    1992-01-01

    Discusses children's use of metaphors to create meaning, using as an example the pragmatic and "scientific" ways in which preschool children explain thunder and lightning to themselves. Argues that children are being shortchanged by modern scientific notions of abstractness and that they should be encouraged to create their own explanations of…

  2. The Complexity of Abstract Machines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beniamino Accattoli

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The lambda-calculus is a peculiar computational model whose definition does not come with a notion of machine. Unsurprisingly, implementations of the lambda-calculus have been studied for decades. Abstract machines are implementations schema for fixed evaluation strategies that are a compromise between theory and practice: they are concrete enough to provide a notion of machine and abstract enough to avoid the many intricacies of actual implementations. There is an extensive literature about abstract machines for the lambda-calculus, and yet—quite mysteriously—the efficiency of these machines with respect to the strategy that they implement has almost never been studied. This paper provides an unusual introduction to abstract machines, based on the complexity of their overhead with respect to the length of the implemented strategies. It is conceived to be a tutorial, focusing on the case study of implementing the weak head (call-by-name strategy, and yet it is an original re-elaboration of known results. Moreover, some of the observation contained here never appeared in print before.

  3. Rolloff Roof Observatory Construction (Abstract)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulowetz, J. H.

    2015-12-01

    (Abstract only) Lessons learned about building an observatory by someone with limited construction experience, and the advantages of having one for imaging and variable star studies. Sample results shown of composite light curves for cataclysmic variables UX UMa and V1101 Aql with data from my observatory combined with data from others around the world.

  4. Abstract Expressionism. Clip and Save.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubbard, Guy

    2002-01-01

    Provides information on the art movement, Abstract Expressionism, and includes learning activities. Focuses on the artist Jackson Pollock, offering a reproduction of his artwork, "Convergence: Number 10." Includes background information on the life and career of Pollock and a description of the included artwork. (CMK)

  5. Original Abstracts - Supplementary | Conference Contributors ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    All abstracts from the The Annual Medical Research Day (AMRD) held at the University of Zimbabwe. Full Text: EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT · DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT · AJOL African Journals Online. HOW TO USE AJOL... for Researchers · for Librarians · for Authors · FAQ's · More about ...

  6. Appropriate modelling of climate change impacts on river flooding

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Booij, Martijn J.

    2002-01-01

    Global climate change is likely to increase temperatures, change precipitation patterns and probably raise the frequency of extreme events. Impacts of climate change on river flooding may be considerable and may cause enormous economical, social and environmental damage and even loss of lives. This

  7. Rethinking the relationship between flood risk perception and flood management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birkholz, S; Muro, M; Jeffrey, P; Smith, H M

    2014-04-15

    Although flood risk perceptions and their concomitant motivations for behaviour have long been recognised as significant features of community resilience in the face of flooding events, there has, for some time now, been a poorly appreciated fissure in the accompanying literature. Specifically, rationalist and constructivist paradigms in the broader domain of risk perception provide different (though not always conflicting) contexts for interpreting evidence and developing theory. This contribution reviews the major constructs that have been applied to understanding flood risk perceptions and contextualises these within broader conceptual developments around risk perception theory and contemporary thinking around flood risk management. We argue that there is a need to re-examine and re-invigorate flood risk perception research, in a manner that is comprehensively underpinned by more constructivist thinking around flood risk management as well as by developments in broader risk perception research. We draw attention to an historical over-emphasis on the cognitive perceptions of those at risk to the detriment of a richer understanding of a wider range of flood risk perceptions such as those of policy-makers or of tax-payers who live outside flood affected areas as well as the linkages between these perspectives and protective measures such as state-supported flood insurance schemes. Conclusions challenge existing understandings of the relationship between risk perception and flood management, particularly where the latter relates to communication strategies and the extent to which those at risk from flooding feel responsible for taking protective actions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Flood Risk and Flood hazard maps - Visualisation of hydrological risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spachinger, Karl; Dorner, Wolfgang; Metzka, Rudolf; Serrhini, Kamal; Fuchs, Sven

    2008-01-01

    Hydrological models are an important basis of flood forecasting and early warning systems. They provide significant data on hydrological risks. In combination with other modelling techniques, such as hydrodynamic models, they can be used to assess the extent and impact of hydrological events. The new European Flood Directive forces all member states to evaluate flood risk on a catchment scale, to compile maps of flood hazard and flood risk for prone areas, and to inform on a local level about these risks. Flood hazard and flood risk maps are important tools to communicate flood risk to different target groups. They provide compiled information to relevant public bodies such as water management authorities, municipalities, or civil protection agencies, but also to the broader public. For almost each section of a river basin, run-off and water levels can be defined based on the likelihood of annual recurrence, using a combination of hydrological and hydrodynamic models, supplemented by an analysis of historical records and mappings. In combination with data related to the vulnerability of a region risk maps can be derived. The project RISKCATCH addressed these issues of hydrological risk and vulnerability assessment focusing on the flood risk management process. Flood hazard maps and flood risk maps were compiled for Austrian and German test sites taking into account existing national and international guidelines. These maps were evaluated by eye-tracking using experimental graphic semiology. Sets of small-scale as well as large-scale risk maps were presented to test persons in order to (1) study reading behaviour as well as understanding and (2) deduce the most attractive components that are essential for target-oriented risk communication. A cognitive survey asking for negative and positive aspects and complexity of each single map complemented the experimental graphic semiology. The results indicate how risk maps can be improved to fit the needs of different user

  9. Flood Risk and Flood hazard maps - Visualisation of hydrological risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spachinger, Karl; Dorner, Wolfgang; Metzka, Rudolf; Serrhini, Kamal; Fuchs, Sven

    2008-11-01

    Hydrological models are an important basis of flood forecasting and early warning systems. They provide significant data on hydrological risks. In combination with other modelling techniques, such as hydrodynamic models, they can be used to assess the extent and impact of hydrological events. The new European Flood Directive forces all member states to evaluate flood risk on a catchment scale, to compile maps of flood hazard and flood risk for prone areas, and to inform on a local level about these risks. Flood hazard and flood risk maps are important tools to communicate flood risk to different target groups. They provide compiled information to relevant public bodies such as water management authorities, municipalities, or civil protection agencies, but also to the broader public. For almost each section of a river basin, run-off and water levels can be defined based on the likelihood of annual recurrence, using a combination of hydrological and hydrodynamic models, supplemented by an analysis of historical records and mappings. In combination with data related to the vulnerability of a region risk maps can be derived. The project RISKCATCH addressed these issues of hydrological risk and vulnerability assessment focusing on the flood risk management process. Flood hazard maps and flood risk maps were compiled for Austrian and German test sites taking into account existing national and international guidelines. These maps were evaluated by eye-tracking using experimental graphic semiology. Sets of small-scale as well as large-scale risk maps were presented to test persons in order to (1) study reading behaviour as well as understanding and (2) deduce the most attractive components that are essential for target-oriented risk communication. A cognitive survey asking for negative and positive aspects and complexity of each single map complemented the experimental graphic semiology. The results indicate how risk maps can be improved to fit the needs of different user

  10. Submerged area of typical torrential flood and debris-flow disasters in Mengzong Gully, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ai-Di Huo

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The torrential flooding and debris flow disasters associated with global climate change pose not only serious threat to individual lives and property, but also impact economic development. Accurately simulating flood scenarios can help to reduce the losses caused by torrential flooding and debris flow by making early warning, evacuation planning, and risk analysis possible. In this study, HEC-RAS software and HEC-GeoRAS module were employed in GIS (geographic information system to simulate the flood overtopping in the Mengzong Gully of Batang River in flood scenarios occurring once in 20, 50, and 100 years, respectively. The simulated floods provided valuable information including scope and depth of submersion via 2D visualization.

  11. Effective delineation of urban flooded areas based on aerial ortho-photo imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ying; Guindon, Bert; Raymond, Don; Hong, Gang

    2016-10-01

    The combination of rapid global urban growth and climate change has resulted in increased occurrence of major urban flood events across the globe. The distribution of flooded area is one of the key information layers for applications of emergency planning and response management. While SAR systems and technologies have been widely used for flood area delineation, radar images suffer from range ambiguities arising from corner reflection effects and shadowing in dense urban settings. A new mapping framework is proposed for the extraction and quantification of flood extent based on aerial optical multi-spectral imagery and ancillary data. This involves first mapping of flood areas directly visible to the sensor. Subsequently, the complete area of submergence is estimated from this initial mapping and inference techniques based on baseline data such as land cover and GIS information such as available digital elevation models. The methodology has been tested and proven effective using aerial photography for the case of the 2013 flood in Calgary, Canada.

  12. Predicting coastal flooding and wetland loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, Thomas W.

    1997-01-01

    The southeastern coastal region encompasses vast areas of wetland habitat important to wildlife and other economically valuable natural resources. Located on the interface between sea and land, these wetland habitats are affected by both sea-level rise and hurricanes, and possibly by hydroperiod associated with regional climatic shifts. Increased sea level is expected to accompany global warming because of higher sea temperatures and ice melt. To help determine the effects of sea-level rise on these wetlands, USGS scientists created computer models of coastal flooding and wetland loss.

  13. CHANGING FLOOD FREQUENCY IN SCOTLAND: IMPLICATIONS FOR CHANNEL GEOMORPHOLOGY, ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Thompson, Fiona Hilary

    2017-01-01

    The effect of climate on the fluvial system has long been investigated due the significant impact it can have on a river’s hydrological regime and fluvial processes. In recent years this interest has increased as global changes in climate are expected to bring more frequent high magnitude flood events globally and to North West Europe in particular. Despite the knowledge that the frequency and magnitude of floods is to increase, less is known about the geomorphological implicat...

  14. Flood Forecasting Based on TIGGE Precipitation Ensemble Forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinyin Ye

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available TIGGE (THORPEX International Grand Global Ensemble was a major part of the THORPEX (Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment. It integrates ensemble precipitation products from all the major forecast centers in the world and provides systematic evaluation on the multimodel ensemble prediction system. Development of meteorologic-hydrologic coupled flood forecasting model and early warning model based on the TIGGE precipitation ensemble forecast can provide flood probability forecast, extend the lead time of the flood forecast, and gain more time for decision-makers to make the right decision. In this study, precipitation ensemble forecast products from ECMWF, NCEP, and CMA are used to drive distributed hydrologic model TOPX. We focus on Yi River catchment and aim to build a flood forecast and early warning system. The results show that the meteorologic-hydrologic coupled model can satisfactorily predict the flow-process of four flood events. The predicted occurrence time of peak discharges is close to the observations. However, the magnitude of the peak discharges is significantly different due to various performances of the ensemble prediction systems. The coupled forecasting model can accurately predict occurrence of the peak time and the corresponding risk probability of peak discharge based on the probability distribution of peak time and flood warning, which can provide users a strong theoretical foundation and valuable information as a promising new approach.

  15. Flood resilience urban territories. Flood resilience urban territories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beraud, Hélène; Barroca, Bruno; Hubert, Gilles

    2010-05-01

    The flood's impact during the last twenty years on French territory reveals our lack of preparation towards large-extended floods which might cause the stopping of companies' activity, services, or lead to housing unavailability during several months. New Orleans' case has to exemplify us: four years after the disaster, the city still couldn't get back its dynamism. In France, more than 300 towns are flood-exposed. While these towns are the mainspring of territory's development, it is likely that the majority of them couldn't get up quickly after a large-extended flood. Therefore, to understand and improve the urban territory's resilience facing floods is a real stake for territory's development. Urban technical networks supply, unify and irrigate all urban territories' constituents. Characterizing their flood resilience can be interesting to understand better urban resilience. In this context, waste management during and after floods is completely crucial. During a flood, the waste management network can become dysfunctional (roads cut, waste storage installations or waste treatment flooded). How can the mayor respect his obligation to guarantee salubrity and security in his city? In post flood the question is even more problematic. The waste management network presents a real stake for territory's restart. After a flood, building materials, lopped-of branches, furniture, business stocks, farm stocks, mud, rubbles, animal cadavers are wet, mixed, even polluted by hydrocarbons or toxic substances. The waste's volume can be significant. Sanitary and environmental risks can be crucial. In view of this situation, waste's management in post crisis period raises a real problem. What to make of this waste? How to collect it? Where to stock it? How to process it? Who is responsible? Answering these questions is all the more strategic since this waste is the mark of disaster. Thus, cleaning will be the first population's and local actor's reflex in order to forget the

  16. Automated flood extent identification using WorldView imagery for the insurance industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geller, Christina

    2017-10-01

    Flooding is the most common and costly natural disaster around the world, causing the loss of human life and billions in economic and insured losses each year. In 2016, pluvial and fluvial floods caused an estimated 5.69 billion USD in losses worldwide with the most severe events occurring in Germany, France, China, and the United States. While catastrophe modeling has begun to help bridge the knowledge gap about the risk of fluvial flooding, understanding the extent of a flood - pluvial and fluvial - in near real-time allows insurance companies around the world to quantify the loss of property that their clients face during a flooding event and proactively respond. To develop this real-time, global analysis of flooded areas and the associated losses, a new methodology utilizing optical multi-spectral imagery from DigitalGlobe (DGI) WorldView satellite suite is proposed for the extraction of pluvial and fluvial flood extents. This methodology involves identifying flooded areas visible to the sensor, filling in the gaps left by the built environment (i.e. buildings, trees) with a nearest neighbor calculation, and comparing the footprint against an Industry Exposure Database (IE) to calculate a loss estimate. Full-automation of the methodology allows production of flood extents and associated losses anywhere around the world as required. The methodology has been tested and proven effective for the 2016 flood in Louisiana, USA.

  17. Flood disaster risk assessment of rural housings--a case study of Kouqian Town in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qi; Zhang, Jiquan; Jiang, Liupeng; Liu, Xingpeng; Tong, Zhijun

    2014-04-03

    Floods are a devastating kind of natural disaster. About half of the population in China lives in rural areas. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the flood disaster risk of rural housings. The results are valuable for guiding the rescue and relief goods layout. In this study, we take the severe flood disaster that happened at Kouqian Town in Jilin, China in 2010 as an example to build an risk assessment system for flood disaster on rural housings. Based on the theory of natural disaster risk formation and "3S" technology (remote sensing, geography information systems and global positioning systems), taking the rural housing as the bearing body, we assess the flood disaster risk from three aspects: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The hazard presented as the flood submerging range and depth. The exposure presented as the values of the housing and the property in it. The vulnerability presented as the relationship between the losses caused by flood and flood depth. We validate the model by the field survey after the flood disaster. The risk assessment results highly coincide with the field survey losses. This model can be used to assess the risk of other flood events in this area.

  18. Flood Disaster Risk Assessment of Rural Housings — A Case Study of Kouqian Town in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qi; Zhang, Jiquan; Jiang, Liupeng; Liu, Xingpeng; Tong, Zhijun

    2014-01-01

    Floods are a devastating kind of natural disaster. About half of the population in China lives in rural areas. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the flood disaster risk of rural housings. The results are valuable for guiding the rescue and relief goods layout. In this study, we take the severe flood disaster that happened at Kouqian Town in Jilin, China in 2010 as an example to build an risk assessment system for flood disaster on rural housings. Based on the theory of natural disaster risk formation and “3S” technology (remote sensing, geography information systems and global positioning systems), taking the rural housing as the bearing body, we assess the flood disaster risk from three aspects: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The hazard presented as the flood submerging range and depth. The exposure presented as the values of the housing and the property in it. The vulnerability presented as the relationship between the losses caused by flood and flood depth. We validate the model by the field survey after the flood disaster. The risk assessment results highly coincide with the field survey losses. This model can be used to assess the risk of other flood events in this area. PMID:24705363

  19. Flood Disaster Risk Assessment of Rural Housings — A Case Study of Kouqian Town in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi Zhang

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Floods are a devastating kind of natural disaster. About half of the population in China lives in rural areas. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the flood disaster risk of rural housings. The results are valuable for guiding the rescue and relief goods layout. In this study, we take the severe flood disaster that happened at Kouqian Town in Jilin, China in 2010 as an example to build an risk assessment system for flood disaster on rural housings. Based on the theory of natural disaster risk formation and “3S” technology (remote sensing, geography information systems and global positioning systems, taking the rural housing as the bearing body, we assess the flood disaster risk from three aspects: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The hazard presented as the flood submerging range and depth. The exposure presented as the values of the housing and the property in it. The vulnerability presented as the relationship between the losses caused by flood and flood depth. We validate the model by the field survey after the flood disaster. The risk assessment results highly coincide with the field survey losses. This model can be used to assess the risk of other flood events in this area.

  20. Water Quality Dynamics of Urban Water Bodies during Flooding in Can Tho City, Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Quan Nguyen

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Water pollution associated with flooding is one of the major problems in cities in the global South. However, studies of water quality dynamics during flood events are not often reported in literature, probably due to difficult conditions for sampling during flood events. Water quality parameters in open water (canals, rivers, and lakes, flood water on roads and water in sewers have been monitored during the extreme fluvial flood event on 7 October 2013 in the city of Can Tho, Vietnam. This is the pioneering study of urban flood water pollution in real time in Vietnam. The results showed that water quality is very dynamic during flooding, especially at the beginning of the event. In addition, it was observed that the pathogen and contaminant levels in the flood water are almost as high as in sewers. The findings show that population exposed to flood water runs a health risk that is nearly equal to that of being in contact with sewer water. Therefore, the people of Can Tho not only face physical risk due to flooding, but are also exposed to health risks.

  1. Flood control problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leopold, Luna Bergere; Maddock, Thomas

    1955-01-01

    Throughout the world, alluvial soils are among the most fertile and easiest cultivated. Alluvial valleys are routes for transportation either by water or by road and railroad. Rivers are sources of water, a necessity of life. But these river valleys and alluvial deposits, which have so many desirable characteristics and which have increased so greatly in population, are periodically occupied by the river in performing its task of removing the excess of precipitation from the land area and carrying away the products of erosion.How a river behaves and how the river flood plain appears depend on the relationships between water and sediment combined with the existing topography. Thus rivers and their alluvial deposits provide an endless variety of forms which are shaped, to a large extent, by the river flow during periods of rapid removal of debris and of excessive rainfall. The mechanics of river formation are such, however, that the highest discharges are not contained within a limited channel. How much water a channel will carry depends upon the frequency of occurrence of a flow. Low flows, which occur very frequently, are not important in channel formation. Neither are the infrequent discharges of very great magnitude which, although powerful, do not occur often enough to shape the channel. Channel characteristics, are dependent on those discharges of moderate size which combine power with frequency of occurrence to modify the channel from. In the highest discharges of a stream, water rises above the confines of its banks and flows over the flood plain.It must be considered, therefore, that floods are natural phenomena which are characteristic of all rivers. They perform a vital function in the maintenance of river forms and out of bank flow may be expected with a reasonable degree of regularity.

  2. Should flood regimes change in a warming climate? The role of antecedent moisture conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woldemeskel, Fitsum; Sharma, Ashish

    2016-07-01

    Assessing changes to flooding is important for designing new and redesigning existing infrastructure to withstand future climates. While there is speculation that floods are likely to intensify in the future, this question is often difficult to assess due to inadequate records on streamflow extremes. An alternate way of determining possible extreme flooding is through assessment of the two key factors that lead to the intensification of floods: the intensification of causative rainfall and changes in the wetness conditions prior to rainfall. This study assesses global changes in the antecedent wetness prior to extreme rainfall. Our results indicate a significant increase in the antecedent moisture in Australia and Africa over the last century; however, there was also a decrease in Eurasia and insignificant change in North America. Given the nature of changes found in this study, any future flood assessment for global warming conditions should take into account antecedent moisture conditions.

  3. Application of flood index in monitoring Flood-plain ecosystems (by the example of the Middle Ob flood-plain)

    OpenAIRE

    Bolotnov, V. P.

    2007-01-01

    The concept of regional hydroecological monitoring has been developed for the flood-plain of the Middle Ob. Its object is to control the state of flood-plain ecosystem productivity for organization of scientific, regional-adopted and ecologically regulated nature management. For this purpose hydroecological zoning of flood-plain territory performed, the most representative stations of water-gauge observations for each flood-plain zone organized, the scheme of flood-plain flooding was prepared...

  4. Probabilistic Flood Defence Assessment Tools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Slomp Robert

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The WTI2017 project is responsible for the development of flood defence assessment tools for the 3600 km of Dutch primary flood defences, dikes/levees, dunes and hydraulic structures. These tools are necessary, as per January 1st 2017, the new flood risk management policy for the Netherlands will be implemented. Then, the seven decades old design practice (maximum water level methodology of 1958 and two decades old safety standards (and maximum hydraulic load methodology of 1996 will formally be replaced by a more risked based approach for the national policy in flood risk management. The formal flood defence assessment is an important part of this new policy, especially for flood defence managers, since national and regional funding for reinforcement is based on this assessment. This new flood defence policy is based on a maximum allowable probability of flooding. For this, a maximum acceptable individual risk was determined at 1/100 000 per year, this is the probability of life loss of for every protected area in the Netherlands. Safety standards of flood defences were then determined based on this acceptable individual risk. The results were adjusted based on information from cost -benefit analysis, societal risk and large scale societal disruption due to the failure of critical infrastructure e.g. power stations. The resulting riskbased flood defence safety standards range from a 300 to a 100 000 year return period for failure. Two policy studies, WV21 (Safety from floods in the 21st century and VNK-2 (the National Flood Risk in 2010 provided the essential information to determine the new risk based safety standards for flood defences. The WTI2017 project will provide the safety assessment tools based on these new standards and is thus an essential element for the implementation of this policy change. A major issue to be tackled was the development of user-friendly tools, as the new assessment is to be carried out by personnel of the

  5. Coastal and Riverine Flood Forecast Model powered by ADCIRC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalid, A.; Ferreira, C.

    2017-12-01

    Coastal flooding is becoming a major threat to increased population in the coastal areas. To protect coastal communities from tropical storms & hurricane damages, early warning systems are being developed. These systems have the capability of real time flood forecasting to identify hazardous coastal areas and aid coastal communities in rescue operations. State of the art hydrodynamic models forced by atmospheric forcing have given modelers the ability to forecast storm surge, water levels and currents. This helps to identify the areas threatened by intense storms. Study on Chesapeake Bay area has gained national importance because of its combined riverine and coastal phenomenon, which leads to greater uncertainty in flood predictions. This study presents an automated flood forecast system developed by following Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) Surge Guidance System (ASGS) guidelines and tailored to take in riverine and coastal boundary forcing, thus includes all the hydrodynamic processes to forecast total water in the Potomac River. As studies on tidal and riverine flow interaction are very scarce in number, our forecast system would be a scientific tool to examine such area and fill the gaps with precise prediction for Potomac River. Real-time observations from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and field measurements have been used as model boundary feeding. The model performance has been validated by using major historical riverine and coastal flooding events. Hydrodynamic model ADCIRC produced promising predictions for flood inundation areas. As better forecasts can be achieved by using coupled models, this system is developed to take boundary conditions from Global WaveWatchIII for the research purposes. Wave and swell propagation will be fed through Global WavewatchIII model to take into account the effects of swells and currents. This automated forecast system is currently undergoing rigorous testing to include any missing parameters which

  6. Large Scale Flood Risk Analysis using a New Hyper-resolution Population Dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, A.; Neal, J. C.; Bates, P. D.; Quinn, N.; Wing, O.

    2017-12-01

    Here we present the first national scale flood risk analyses, using high resolution Facebook Connectivity Lab population data and data from a hyper resolution flood hazard model. In recent years the field of large scale hydraulic modelling has been transformed by new remotely sensed datasets, improved process representation, highly efficient flow algorithms and increases in computational power. These developments have allowed flood risk analysis to be undertaken in previously unmodeled territories and from continental to global scales. Flood risk analyses are typically conducted via the integration of modelled water depths with an exposure dataset. Over large scales and in data poor areas, these exposure data typically take the form of a gridded population dataset, estimating population density using remotely sensed data and/or locally available census data. The local nature of flooding dictates that for robust flood risk analysis to be undertaken both hazard and exposure data should sufficiently resolve local scale features. Global flood frameworks are enabling flood hazard data to produced at 90m resolution, resulting in a mis-match with available population datasets which are typically more coarsely resolved. Moreover, these exposure data are typically focused on urban areas and struggle to represent rural populations. In this study we integrate a new population dataset with a global flood hazard model. The population dataset was produced by the Connectivity Lab at Facebook, providing gridded population data at 5m resolution, representing a resolution increase over previous countrywide data sets of multiple orders of magnitude. Flood risk analysis undertaken over a number of developing countries are presented, along with a comparison of flood risk analyses undertaken using pre-existing population datasets.

  7. Varieties of flood risk governance in Europe : How do countries respond to driving forces and what explains institutional change?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wiering, Mark; Kaufmann, M.; Mees, H.; Schellenberger, T.; Ganzevoort, W.; Hegger, D.L.T.; Larrue, C.; Matczak, P.

    Abstract Floods are challenging the resilience of societies all over the world. In many countries there are discussions on diversifying the strategies for flood risk management, which implies some sort of policy change. To understand the possibilities of such change, a thorough understanding of the

  8. Flood hazard probability mapping method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalantari, Zahra; Lyon, Steve; Folkeson, Lennart

    2015-04-01

    In Sweden, spatially explicit approaches have been applied in various disciplines such as landslide modelling based on soil type data and flood risk modelling for large rivers. Regarding flood mapping, most previous studies have focused on complex hydrological modelling on a small scale whereas just a few studies have used a robust GIS-based approach integrating most physical catchment descriptor (PCD) aspects on a larger scale. The aim of the present study was to develop methodology for predicting the spatial probability of flooding on a general large scale. Factors such as topography, land use, soil data and other PCDs were analysed in terms of their relative importance for flood generation. The specific objective was to test the methodology using statistical methods to identify factors having a significant role on controlling flooding. A second objective was to generate an index quantifying flood probability value for each cell, based on different weighted factors, in order to provide a more accurate analysis of potential high flood hazards than can be obtained using just a single variable. The ability of indicator covariance to capture flooding probability was determined for different watersheds in central Sweden. Using data from this initial investigation, a method to subtract spatial data for multiple catchments and to produce soft data for statistical analysis was developed. It allowed flood probability to be predicted from spatially sparse data without compromising the significant hydrological features on the landscape. By using PCD data, realistic representations of high probability flood regions was made, despite the magnitude of rain events. This in turn allowed objective quantification of the probability of floods at the field scale for future model development and watershed management.

  9. Elephant Butte Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — This vector dataset depicts the 1% annual flood boundary (otherwise known as special flood hazard area or 100 year flood boundary) for its specified area. The data...

  10. Abstract Cauchy problems three approaches

    CERN Document Server

    Melnikova, Irina V

    2001-01-01

    Although the theory of well-posed Cauchy problems is reasonably understood, ill-posed problems-involved in a numerous mathematical models in physics, engineering, and finance- can be approached in a variety of ways. Historically, there have been three major strategies for dealing with such problems: semigroup, abstract distribution, and regularization methods. Semigroup and distribution methods restore well-posedness, in a modern weak sense. Regularization methods provide approximate solutions to ill-posed problems. Although these approaches were extensively developed over the last decades by many researchers, nowhere could one find a comprehensive treatment of all three approaches.Abstract Cauchy Problems: Three Approaches provides an innovative, self-contained account of these methods and, furthermore, demonstrates and studies some of the profound connections between them. The authors discuss the application of different methods not only to the Cauchy problem that is not well-posed in the classical sense, b...

  11. Learning abstract algebra with ISETL

    CERN Document Server

    Dubinsky, Ed

    1994-01-01

    Most students in abstract algebra classes have great difficulty making sense of what the instructor is saying. Moreover, this seems to remain true almost independently of the quality of the lecture. This book is based on the constructivist belief that, before students can make sense of any presentation of abstract mathematics, they need to be engaged in mental activities which will establish an experiential base for any future verbal explanation. No less, they need to have the opportunity to reflect on their activities. This approach is based on extensive theoretical and empirical studies as well as on the substantial experience of the authors in teaching astract algebra. The main source of activities in this course is computer constructions, specifically, small programs written in the mathlike programming language ISETL; the main tool for reflections is work in teams of 2-4 students, where the activities are discussed and debated. Because of the similarity of ISETL expressions to standard written mathematics...

  12. Abstract Interpretation Using Attribute Grammar

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosendahl, Mads

    1990-01-01

    This paper deals with the correctness proofs of attribute grammars using methods from abstract interpretation. The technique will be described by defining a live-variable analysis for a small flow-chart language and proving it correct with respect to a continuation style semantics. The proof...... technique is based on fixpoint induction and introduces an extended class of attribute grammars as to express a standard semantics....

  13. Norddesign 2012 - Book of Abstract

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    has been organized in line with the original ideas. The topics mentioned in the call for abstracts were: Product Development: Integrated, Multidisciplinary, Product life oriented and Distributed. Multi-product Development. Innovation and Business Models. Engineering Design and Industrial Design....... Conceptualisation and Innovative thinking. Research approaches and topics: Human Behaviour and Cognition. Cooperation and Multidisciplinary Design. Staging and Management of Design. Communication in Design. Design education and teaching: Programmes and Syllabuses. New Courses. Integrated and Multi-disciplinary. We...

  14. Floods in the Saguenay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martel, R.; Michaud, E.; Tousignant, P.M.

    1997-01-01

    Footage of a natural disaster that occurred between July 20 and 25 1996, in the Saguenay region of Quebec was documented. A heavy downpour of rain raised the water level of the Kenogami Lake reservoir beyond its capacity. This created huge pressure on its dam that upset the fragile balance between nature and rock. The dam raptured, resulting in a flood of previously unseen proportions. The Riviere au Sable in Jonquiere became an overwhelming body of water. The video showed how the shores of the river were eroded and how apartment buildings were engulfed by the torrent of water. A newly constructed electricity power plant had to be decommissioned, roads were washed away and entire neighborhoods were devastated. The devastation suffered by the cities of Chicoutimi, Jonquiere, Ville de la Baie, Ferland-Boileau, and L'Anse St-Jean was recorded. Thousands of victims of the disaster were evacuated with the help of the Canadian Armed Forces. Some of the work of reconstruction, begun even before the total retreat of the flood, involved restoration of roads, bridges and communication networks, was also shown

  15. Extreme flooding tolerance in Rorippa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Akman, M.; Bhikharie, A.; Mustroph, A.; Sasidharan, Rashmi

    2014-01-01

    Low oxygen stress imposed by floods creates a strong selection force shaping plant ecosystems in flood-prone areas. Plants inhabiting these environments adopt various adaptations and survival strategies to cope with increasing water depths. Two Rorippa species, R. sylvestris and R. amphibia that

  16. Topography- and nightlight-based national flood risk assessment in Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elshorbagy, Amin; Bharath, Raja; Lakhanpal, Anchit; Ceola, Serena; Montanari, Alberto; Lindenschmidt, Karl-Erich

    2017-04-01

    In Canada, flood analysis and water resource management, in general, are tasks conducted at the provincial level; therefore, unified national-scale approaches to water-related problems are uncommon. In this study, a national-scale flood risk assessment approach is proposed and developed. The study focuses on using global and national datasets available with various resolutions to create flood risk maps. First, a flood hazard map of Canada is developed using topography-based parameters derived from digital elevation models, namely, elevation above nearest drainage (EAND) and distance from nearest drainage (DFND). This flood hazard mapping method is tested on a smaller area around the city of Calgary, Alberta, against a flood inundation map produced by the city using hydraulic modelling. Second, a flood exposure map of Canada is developed using a land-use map and the satellite-based nightlight luminosity data as two exposure parameters. Third, an economic flood risk map is produced, and subsequently overlaid with population density information to produce a socioeconomic flood risk map for Canada. All three maps of hazard, exposure, and risk are classified into five classes, ranging from very low to severe. A simple way to include flood protection measures in hazard estimation is also demonstrated using the example of the city of Winnipeg, Manitoba. This could be done for the entire country if information on flood protection across Canada were available. The evaluation of the flood hazard map shows that the topography-based method adopted in this study is both practical and reliable for large-scale analysis. Sensitivity analysis regarding the resolution of the digital elevation model is needed to identify the resolution that is fine enough for reliable hazard mapping, but coarse enough for computational tractability. The nightlight data are found to be useful for exposure and risk mapping in Canada; however, uncertainty analysis should be conducted to investigate the

  17. Internal flooding analyses results of Slovak NPPs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sopira, Vladimir

    2000-01-01

    The assessment of the flood risk was the objective of the internal flooding analysis for NPPs Bohunice V1, V2 and Mochovce. All important flooding sources were identified. The rooms containing safety important components were analyzed from the point of view of: Integrity of flood boundaries; Capability for drainage; Flood signalisation; Flood localization and liquidation; Vulnerability of safety system component. The redundancies of safety systems are located mostly separately and no flood can endanger more than single train. It can be concluded that NPPs with WWER-440 are very safe against the flooding initiating event

  18. Developing a Malaysia flood model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haseldine, Lucy; Baxter, Stephen; Wheeler, Phil; Thomson, Tina

    2014-05-01

    Faced with growing exposures in Malaysia, insurers have a need for models to help them assess their exposure to flood losses. The need for an improved management of flood risks has been further highlighted by the 2011 floods in Thailand and recent events in Malaysia. The increasing demand for loss accumulation tools in Malaysia has lead to the development of the first nationwide probabilistic Malaysia flood model, which we present here. The model is multi-peril, including river flooding for thousands of kilometres of river and rainfall-driven surface water flooding in major cities, which may cause losses equivalent to river flood in some high-density urban areas. The underlying hazard maps are based on a 30m digital surface model (DSM) and 1D/2D hydraulic modelling in JFlow and RFlow. Key mitigation schemes such as the SMART tunnel and drainage capacities are also considered in the model. The probabilistic element of the model is driven by a stochastic event set based on rainfall data, hence enabling per-event and annual figures to be calculated for a specific insurance portfolio and a range of return periods. Losses are estimated via depth-damage vulnerability functions which link the insured damage to water depths for different property types in Malaysia. The model provides a unique insight into Malaysian flood risk profiles and provides insurers with return period estimates of flood damage and loss to property portfolios through loss exceedance curve outputs. It has been successfully validated against historic flood events in Malaysia and is now being successfully used by insurance companies in the Malaysian market to obtain reinsurance cover.

  19. Damage-reducing measures to manage flood risks in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreibich, Heidi; Bubeck, Philip; Van Vliet, Mathijs; De Moel, Hans

    2014-05-01

    ., Botzen, W. J. W., Kreibich, H., Aerts, J. C. J. H. (2013) Detailed insights into the influence of flood-coping appraisals on mitigation behaviour. Global Environmental Change. DOI:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.05.009. Kreibich, H., Thieken, A. H., Petrow, T., Müller, M., Merz, B. (2005): Flood loss reduction of private households due to building precautionary measures - Lessons Learned from the Elbe flood in August 2002. NHESS, 5, 1, 117-126. Kreibich, H., Christenberger, S., Schwarze, R. (2011) Economic motivation of households to undertake private precautionary measures against floods. NHESS, 11, 2, 309-321.

  20. Texas floods of 1940

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breeding, Seth D.

    1948-01-01

    Floods occurred in Texas during, June, July, and November 1940 that exceeded known stages on many small streams and at a few places on the larger streams. Stages at several stream-gaging stations exceeded the maximum known at those places since the collection of daily records began. A storm, haying its axis generally on a north-south line from Cameron to Victoria and extending across the Brazos, Colorado, Lavaca, and Guadalupe River Basins, caused heavy rainfall over a large part of south-central Texas. The maximum recorded rain of 22.7 inches for the 2-day period June 29-30 occurred at Engle. Of this amount, 17.5 inches fell in the 12-hour period between 8 p.m. June 29, and 8 a.m. June 30. Light rains fell at a number of places on June 28, and additional light rains fell at many places within the area from July 1 to 4. During the period June 28 to July 4 more than 20 inches of rain fell over an area of 300 square miles, more than 15 inches over 1,920 square miles, and more than 10 inches over 5,100 square miles. The average annual rainfall for the area experiencing the heaviest rainfall during this storm is about 35 inches. Farming is largely confined to the fertile flood plains in much of the area subjected to the record-breaking floods in June and July. Therefore these floods, coming at the height of the growing season, caused severe losses to crops. Much damage was done also to highways and railways. The city of Hallettsville suffered the greatest damage of any urban area. The Lavaca River at that place reached a stage 8 feet higher than ever known before, drowned several people, destroyed many homes, and submerged almost the entire business district. The maximum discharge there was 93,100 second-feet from a drainage area of 101 square miles. Dry Creek near Smithville produced a maximum discharge of 1,879 second-feet from an area of 1.48 square miles and a runoff of 11.3 inches in a 2-day period from a rainfall of 19.5 inches. The area in the Colorado River

  1. Improving Gas Flooding Efficiency

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reid Grigg; Robert Svec; Zheng Zeng; Alexander Mikhalin; Yi Lin; Guoqiang Yin; Solomon Ampir; Rashid Kassim

    2008-03-31

    This study focuses on laboratory studies with related analytical and numerical models, as well as work with operators for field tests to enhance our understanding of and capabilities for more efficient enhanced oil recovery (EOR). Much of the work has been performed at reservoir conditions. This includes a bubble chamber and several core flood apparatus developed or modified to measure interfacial tension (IFT), critical micelle concentration (CMC), foam durability, surfactant sorption at reservoir conditions, and pressure and temperature effects on foam systems.Carbon dioxide and N{sub 2} systems have been considered, under both miscible and immiscible conditions. The injection of CO2 into brine-saturated sandstone and carbonate core results in brine saturation reduction in the range of 62 to 82% brine in the tests presented in this paper. In each test, over 90% of the reduction occurred with less than 0.5 PV of CO{sub 2} injected, with very little additional brine production after 0.5 PV of CO{sub 2} injected. Adsorption of all considered surfactant is a significant problem. Most of the effect is reversible, but the amount required for foaming is large in terms of volume and cost for all considered surfactants. Some foams increase resistance to the value beyond what is practical in the reservoir. Sandstone, limestone, and dolomite core samples were tested. Dissolution of reservoir rock and/or cement, especially carbonates, under acid conditions of CO2 injection is a potential problem in CO2 injection into geological formations. Another potential change in reservoir injectivity and productivity will be the precipitation of dissolved carbonates as the brine flows and pressure decreases. The results of this report provide methods for determining surfactant sorption and can be used to aid in the determination of surfactant requirements for reservoir use in a CO{sub 2}-foam flood for mobility control. It also provides data to be used to determine rock permeability

  2. IEEE conference record--Abstracts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1992-01-01

    The following topics were covered in this meeting: basic plasma phenomena and plasma waves; plasma diagnostics; space plasma diagnostics; magnetic fusion; electron, ion and plasma sources; intense electron and ion beams; intense beam microwaves; fast wave M/W devices; microwave plasma interactions; plasma focus; ultrafast Z-pinches; plasma processing; electrical gas discharges; fast opening switches; magnetohydrodynamics; electromagnetic and electrothermal launchers; x-ray lasers; computational plasma science; solid state plasmas and switches; environmental/energy issues in plasma science; vacuum electronics; plasmas for lighting; gaseous electronics; and ball lightning and other spherical plasmas. Separate abstracts were prepared for 278 papers of this conference.

  3. National Physics Conference. Paper Abstracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marinela Dumitriu, Editorial Coordination.

    1995-01-01

    This book contains the abstracts of the proceedings of the annual Romanian Physics Conference organized by Romanian Physics Society. The conference was held on November 30 to December 2, 1995 in the city of Baia Mare. It was organized in the following nine sections: 1 - Astrophysics, Particle Physics, Nuclear Physics, Molecular and Atomic Physics; 2 - Plasma Physics; 3 - Biophysics; 4 - Technical Physics; 5 - Theoretical Physics; 6 -The Physics of Energy; 7 - The Physics of Environment 8 - Solid State Physics; 9 - Optical and Quantum Electronics. The full texts can be obtained on request from the Romanian Physical Society or directly from authors

  4. WIPR-2010 Book of abstracts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-01-01

    The main objective of the workshop was to review advanced and preclinical studies on innovative positron emitting radionuclides to assess their usefulness and potentials. Presentations were organized around 4 issues: 1) preclinical and clinical point of view, 2) production of innovative PET radionuclides, 3) from complexation chemistry to PET imaging and 4) from research to clinic. Emphasis has been put on 64 Cu, 68 Ga, 89 Zr, 44 Sc but specific aspects such as production or purification have been considered for 66 Ga, 67 Ga, 52 Fe, 86 Y, and 68 Ge radionuclides. This document gathers the abstracts of most contributions

  5. In-Package Chemistry Abstraction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    P.S. Domski

    2003-07-21

    The work associated with the development of this model report was performed in accordance with the requirements established in ''Technical Work Plan for Waste Form Degradation Modeling, Testing, and Analyses in Support of SR and LA'' (BSC 2002a). The in-package chemistry model and in-package chemistry model abstraction are developed to predict the bulk chemistry inside of a failed waste package and to provide simplified expressions of that chemistry. The purpose of this work is to provide the abstraction model to the Performance Assessment Project and the Waste Form Department for development of geochemical models of the waste package interior. The scope of this model report is to describe the development and validation of the in-package chemistry model and in-package chemistry model abstraction. The in-package chemistry model will consider chemical interactions of water with the waste package materials and the waste form for commercial spent nuclear fuel (CSNF) and codisposed high-level waste glass (HLWG) and N Reactor spent fuel (CDNR). The in-package chemistry model includes two sub-models, the first a water vapor condensation (WVC) model, where water enters a waste package as vapor and forms a film on the waste package components with subsequent film reactions with the waste package materials and waste form--this is a no-flow model, the reacted fluids do not exit the waste package via advection. The second sub-model of the in-package chemistry model is the seepage dripping model (SDM), where water, water that may have seeped into the repository from the surrounding rock, enters a failed waste package and reacts with the waste package components and waste form, and then exits the waste package with no accumulation of reacted water in the waste package. Both of the submodels of the in-package chemistry model are film models in contrast to past in-package chemistry models where all of the waste package pore space was filled with water. The

  6. Operating System Abstraction Layer (OSAL)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yanchik, Nicholas J.

    2007-01-01

    This viewgraph presentation reviews the concept of the Operating System Abstraction Layer (OSAL) and its benefits. The OSAL is A small layer of software that allows programs to run on many different operating systems and hardware platforms It runs independent of the underlying OS & hardware and it is self-contained. The benefits of OSAL are that it removes dependencies from any one operating system, promotes portable, reusable flight software. It allows for Core Flight software (FSW) to be built for multiple processors and operating systems. The presentation discusses the functionality, the various OSAL releases, and describes the specifications.

  7. Shoestring Budget Radio Astronomy (Abstract)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoot, J. E.

    2017-12-01

    (Abstract only) The commercial exploitation of microwave frequencies for cellular, WiFi, Bluetooth, HDTV, and satellite digital media transmission has brought down the cost of the components required to build an effective radio telescope to the point where, for the cost of a good eyepiece, you can construct and operate a radio telescope. This paper sets forth a family of designs for 1421 MHz telescopes. It also proposes a method by which operators of such instruments can aggregate and archive data via the Internet. With 90 or so instruments it will be possible to survey the entire radio sky for transients with a 24 hour cadence.

  8. Abstract decomposition theorem and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Grossberg, R; Grossberg, Rami; Lessmann, Olivier

    2005-01-01

    Let K be an Abstract Elementary Class. Under the asusmptions that K has a nicely behaved forking-like notion, regular types and existence of some prime models we establish a decomposition theorem for such classes. The decomposition implies a main gap result for the class K. The setting is general enough to cover \\aleph_0-stable first-order theories (proved by Shelah in 1982), Excellent Classes of atomic models of a first order tehory (proved Grossberg and Hart 1987) and the class of submodels of a large sequentially homogenuus \\aleph_0-stable model (which is new).

  9. Indico CONFERENCE: Define the Call for Abstracts

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva; Ferreira, Pedro

    2017-01-01

    In this tutorial, you will learn how to define and open a call for abstracts. When defining a call for abstracts, you will be able to define settings related to the type of questions asked during a review of an abstract, select the users who will review the abstracts, decide when to open the call for abstracts, and more.

  10. Resistance Mechanisms of Peltophorum dubium (Sprengel Taubert Submitted to Flood Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lara Siqueira Oliveira Carvalho

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Peltophorum dubium (Sprengel Taubert seedlings were submitted to 60 days of flooding, with and without Ca+. During this period, growth, root anatomy and chlorophyll content were analyzed. The relative growth rates (RGR of roots and shoots were higher in non-flooded plants. The flooded treatments, with and without Ca+, have affected the roots growth but did not affect the shoot and the stem diameter. The anatomy analysis showed thickening of the sclerenchyma in 15 and 60 days in the flooded treatments with and without Ca+, and the vessel diameter was smaller at 45 days. The chlorophyll content differed, however it was not statistically significant. The results indicate that Peltophorum dubium as candidate specie for reforestation in areas subjected to continuous flooding for up to 60 days, since no mortality was observed.

  11. LATERAL FLOODING ASSOCIATED TO WAVE FLOOD GENERATION ON RIVER SURFACE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Ramírez-Núñez

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This research provides a wave flood simulation using a high resolution LiDAR Digital Terrain Model. The simulation is based on the generation of waves of different amplitudes that modify the river level in such a way that water invades the adjacent areas. The proposed algorithm firstly reconstitutes the original river surface of the studied river section and then defines the percentage of water loss when the wave floods move downstream. This procedure was applied to a gently slope area in the lower basin of Coatzacoalcos river, Veracruz (Mexico defining the successive areas where lateral flooding occurs on its downstream movement.

  12. Lateral Flooding Associated to Wave Flood Generation on River Surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramírez-Núñez, C.; Parrot, J.-F.

    2016-06-01

    This research provides a wave flood simulation using a high resolution LiDAR Digital Terrain Model. The simulation is based on the generation of waves of different amplitudes that modify the river level in such a way that water invades the adjacent areas. The proposed algorithm firstly reconstitutes the original river surface of the studied river section and then defines the percentage of water loss when the wave floods move downstream. This procedure was applied to a gently slope area in the lower basin of Coatzacoalcos river, Veracruz (Mexico) defining the successive areas where lateral flooding occurs on its downstream movement.

  13. Opening the flood gates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tiner, T.

    1998-01-01

    Ontario's aging hydroelectric dams are facing a deluge of problems which threaten their ability to control floods. The issue of whether or not some of the dams should be torn down, given the fact that they will all require major maintenance in the future, was discussed. In Ontario, there are 2,000 dams that are two metres high or more, including the 23-metre-high Iroquois Dam and 74 large structures like it. The government of Ontario is considering decommissioning some of its older, smaller dams that no longer serve any purpose. It is interested in retaining only about 80 of the 375 structures now run by the Ministry of Natural Resources. As of now, the under-financed dams continue to deteriorate and the need for environmental remediation continues to increase. There is danger that water, long considered to be Ontario's greatest asset, can turn into a liability. 3 figs

  14. An introduction to abstract algebra

    CERN Document Server

    Robinson, Derek JS

    2003-01-01

    This is a high level introduction to abstract algebra which is aimed at readers whose interests lie in mathematics and in the information and physical sciences. In addition to introducing the main concepts of modern algebra, the book contains numerous applications, which are intended to illustrate the concepts and to convince the reader of the utility and relevance of algebra today. In particular applications to Polya coloring theory, latin squares, Steiner systems and error correcting codes are described. Another feature of the book is that group theory and ring theory are carried further than is often done at this level. There is ample material here for a two semester course in abstract algebra. The importance of proof is stressed and rigorous proofs of almost all results are given. But care has been taken to lead the reader through the proofs by gentle stages. There are nearly 400 problems, of varying degrees of difficulty, to test the reader''s skill and progress. The book should be suitable for students ...

  15. Reconstruction of abstract quantum theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drieschner, M.; Goernitz, T.; von Weizsaecker, C.F.

    1988-01-01

    Understanding quantum theory as a general theory of prediction, we reconstruct abstract quantum theory. Abstract means the general frame of quantum theory, without reference to a three-dimensional position space, to concepts like particle or field, or to special laws of dynamics. Reconstruction is the attempt to do this by formulating simple and plausible postulates on prediction in order to derive the basic concepts of quantum theory from them. Thereby no law of classical physics is presupposed which would then have to be quantized. We briefly discuss the relationship of theory and interpretation in physics and the fundamental role of time as a basic concept for physics. Then a number of assertions are given, formulated as succinctly as possible in order to make them easily quotable and comparable. The assertations are arranged in four groups: heuristic principles, verbal definitions of some terms, three basic postulates, and consequences. The three postulates of separable alternatives, indeterminism, and kinematics are the central points of this work. These brief assertions are commented upon, and their relationship with the interpretation of quantum theory is discussed. Also given are an outlook on the further development into concrete quantum theory and some philosophical reflections

  16. Periodic temperature-associated drought/flood drives locust plagues in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhibin; Cazelles, Bernard; Tian, Huidong; Stige, Leif Christian; Bräuning, Achim; Stenseth, Nils Chr

    2009-03-07

    Global warming is currently of great concern. Yet the ecological effects of low-frequency climate variations remain largely unknown. Recent analyses of interdecadal variability in population abundance of the Oriental migratory locust (Locusta migratoria manilensis) in China have revealed negative associations with temperature and positive associations with Yangtze drought and flood frequencies during the past millennium (AD 957-1956). In order to shed new light on the causal relationships between locust abundance, floods, droughts and temperature in ancient China, we used wavelet analysis to explore how the coherencies between the different variables at different frequencies have been changed during the past millennium. We find consistent in-phase coherencies between locusts and drought/flood frequencies, and out-of-phase coherencies between locusts and temperature and between drought/flood and temperature at period components of 160-170 years. Similar results are obtained when historical data of drought/flood frequencies of the Yangtze Delta region are used, despite flood data showing a weak and somewhat inconsistent association with other factors. We suggest that previously unreported periodic cooling of 160-170-year intervals dominate climatic variability in China through the past millennium, the cooling events promoting locust plagues by enhancing temperature-associated drought/flood events. Our results signify a rare example of possible benign effects of global warming on the regional risk of natural disasters such as flood/drought events and outbreaks of pest insects.

  17. Nuisance Flooding and Relative Sea-Level Rise: the Importance of Present-Day Land Motion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karegar, Makan A; Dixon, Timothy H; Malservisi, Rocco; Kusche, Jürgen; Engelhart, Simon E

    2017-09-11

    Sea-level rise is beginning to cause increased inundation of many low-lying coastal areas. While most of Earth's coastal areas are at risk, areas that will be affected first are characterized by several additional factors. These include regional oceanographic and meteorological effects and/or land subsidence that cause relative sea level to rise faster than the global average. For catastrophic coastal flooding, when wind-driven storm surge inundates large areas, the relative contribution of sea-level rise to the frequency of these events is difficult to evaluate. For small scale "nuisance flooding," often associated with high tides, recent increases in frequency are more clearly linked to sea-level rise and global warming. While both types of flooding are likely to increase in the future, only nuisance flooding is an early indicator of areas that will eventually experience increased catastrophic flooding and land loss. Here we assess the frequency and location of nuisance flooding along the eastern seaboard of North America. We show that vertical land motion induced by recent anthropogenic activity and glacial isostatic adjustment are contributing factors for increased nuisance flooding. Our results have implications for flood susceptibility, forecasting and mitigation, including management of groundwater extraction from coastal aquifers.

  18. Beyond 'flood hotspots': co-production of knowledge between academia and stakeholders for improved resilience of emergency response to flood disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, D.; Green, D. L.; Wilby, R.; Pattison, I.; Yang, L.; Bosher, L.; Ryley, T.

    2015-12-01

    Emergency responders such as the Fire & Rescue and Ambulance Services often face the challenging task of having to respond to or operate in dynamic weather conditions, including floods. In the UK, in order to meet government legislation and improve resilience of their operation, emergency responders, coordinated by Local Resilience Forums actively seek to identify areas which are most vulnerable to flooding, as well as the potential impacts of flood events on the critical infrastructure nodes and networks upon which their operations rely. This has been facilitated by the recent advances in flood modelling which provides country-wide publicly accessible flood risk mapping. Whilst in the possession of a wealth of data and abundant local knowledge, emergency responders often find it challenging to apply existing flood 'hotspot' data to assist strategic planning and operational response. This abstract describes a recently completed project funded by the UK Natural Environment Research Council, which combined an interdisciplinary team of researchers based at Loughborough University with a group of project partners working in the field of flood resilience within the City of Leicester, UK, to evaluate the resilience of emergency response during extreme flood events. One key piece of work which stakeholders found useful and effective was the accessibility of the city to emergency responders during extreme flooding. The figure below maps the areas of the City accessible within 8 minutes, the response time required for serious, high-priority incidents by legislation, for the Fire & Rescue Service stations under a 1 in 20 year pluvial flood event. This goes beyond what the stakeholders are already aware of in terms of direct impacts of flooding, i.e. the 'hotspot' areas which would directly become inundated, and highlights the indirect, cascading impacts of flood events of different magnitudes on emergency response times at the city-scale. This also provides stakeholders with

  19. On the value of satellite-based river discharge and river flood data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kettner, A. J.; Brakenridge, R.; van Praag, E.; Borrero, S.; Slayback, D. A.; Young, C.; Cohen, S.; Prades, L.; de Groeve, T.

    2015-12-01

    Flooding is the most common natural hazard worldwide. According to the World Resources Institute, floods impact 21 million people every year and affect the global GDP by $96 billion. Providing accurate flood maps in near-real time (NRT) is critical to their utility to first responders. Also, in times of flooding, river gauging stations on location, if any, are of less use to monitor stage height as an approximation for water surface area, as often the stations themselves get washed out or peak water levels reach much beyond their design measuring capacity. In a joint effort with NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, the European Commission Joint Research Centre and the University of Alabama, the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) measures NRT: 1) river discharges, and 2) water inundation extents, both with a global coverage on a daily basis. Satellite-based passive microwave sensors and hydrological modeling are utilized to establish 'remote-sensing based discharge stations'. Once calibrated, daily discharge time series span from 1998 to the present. Also, the two MODIS instruments aboard the NASA Terra and Aqua satellites provide daily floodplain inundation extent with global coverage at a spatial resolution of 250m. DFO's mission is to provide easy access to NRT river and flood data products. Apart from the DFO web portal, several water extent products can be ingested by utilizing a Web Map Service (WMS), such as is established with for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region through the GeoSUR program portal. This effort includes implementing over 100 satellite discharge stations showing in NRT if a river is flooding, normal, or in low flow. New collaborative efforts have resulted in flood hazard maps which display flood extent as well as exceedance probabilities. The record length of our sensors allows mapping the 1.5 year, 5 year and 25 year flood extent. These can provide key information to water management and disaster response entities.

  20. Socio-hydrological flood models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barendrecht, Marlies; Viglione, Alberto; Blöschl, Günter

    2017-04-01

    Long-term feedbacks between humans and floods may lead to complex phenomena such as coping strategies, levee effects, call effects, adaptation effects, and poverty traps. Such phenomena cannot be represented by traditional flood risk approaches that are based on scenarios. Instead, dynamic models of the coupled human-flood interactions are needed. These types of models should include both social and hydrological variables as well as other relevant variables, such as economic, environmental, political or technical, in order to adequately represent the feedbacks and processes that are of importance in human-flood systems. These socio-hydrological models may play an important role in integrated flood risk management by exploring a wider range of possible futures, including unexpected phenomena, than is possible by creating and studying scenarios. New insights might come to light about the long term effects of certain measures on society and the natural system. Here we discuss a dynamic framework for flood risk and review the models that are presented in literature. We propose a way forward for socio-hydrological modelling of the human-flood system.

  1. Towards a global land subsidence map

    OpenAIRE

    G. Erkens; G. Erkens; E. H. Sutanudjaja; E. H. Sutanudjaja

    2015-01-01

    Land subsidence is a global problem, but a global land subsidence map is not available yet. Such map is crucial to raise global awareness of land subsidence, as land subsidence causes extensive damage (probably in the order of billions of dollars annually). With the global land subsidence map relative sea level rise predictions may be improved, contributing to global flood risk calculations. In this paper, we discuss the approach and progress we have made so far in ma...

  2. Socio-Economic Resilience to Floods in 90 Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallegatte, S.; Bangalore, M.; Vogt-Schilb, A.

    2015-12-01

    Global losses from floods are increasing, with renewed calls for action to reduce their impact. In each country, region or city, many actions can protect the population and help rebuild and recover: building dikes and restoring mangroves; land-use planning; early warning and evacuation; insurance and social safety nets. What should be the priorities? How to build a comprehensive strategy? Is progress being made? We propose a tool - a national-level scorecard based on welfare economics - to assess a country's socio-economic resilience to river floods and identify the most promising policy options in different contexts to reduce the impact of floods on well-being. The tool is applied to 90 countries using open databases, and can serve as a starting point for designing policies and more in-depth local studies.

  3. From flood management systems to flood resilient systems: integration of flood resilient technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salagnac, J.-L.; Diez, J.; Tourbier, J.

    2012-04-01

    Flooding has always been a major risk world-wide. Humans chose to live and develop settlements close to water (rivers, seas) due to the resources water brings, i.e. food, energy, capacity to economically transport persons and goods, and recreation. However, the risk from flooding, including pluvial flooding, often offsets these huge advantages. Floods sometimes have terrible consequences from both a human and economic point of view. The permanence and growth of urban areas in flood-prone zones despite these risks is a clear indication of the choices of concerned human groups. The observed growing concentration of population along the sea shore, the increase of urban population worldwide, the exponential growth of the world population and possibly climate change are factors that confirm flood will remain a major issue for the next decades. Flood management systems are designed and implemented to cope with such situations. In spite of frequent events, lessons look to be difficult to draw out and progresses are rather slow. The list of potential triggers to improve flood management systems is nevertheless well established: information, education, awareness raising, alert, prevention, protection, feedback from events, ... Many disciplines are concerned which cover a wide range of soft and hard sciences. A huge amount of both printed and electronic literature is available. Regulations are abundant. In spite of all these potentially favourable elements, similar questions spring up after each new significant event: • Was the event forecast precise enough? • Was the alert system efficient? • Why were buildings built in identified flood prone areas? • Why did the concerned population not follow instructions? • Why did the dike break? • What should we do to avoid it happens again? • What about damages evaluation, wastes and debris evacuation, infrastructures and buildings repair, activity recovery, temporary relocation of inhabitants, health concerns, insurance

  4. Flooding Fragility Experiments and Prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Curtis L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Tahhan, Antonio [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Muchmore, Cody [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Nichols, Larinda [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Bhandari, Bishwo [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Pope, Chad [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-09-01

    This report describes the work that has been performed on flooding fragility, both the experimental tests being carried out and the probabilistic fragility predictive models being produced in order to use the text results. Flooding experiments involving full-scale doors have commenced in the Portal Evaluation Tank. The goal of these experiments is to develop a full-scale component flooding experiment protocol and to acquire data that can be used to create Bayesian regression models representing the fragility of these components. This work is in support of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluation research and development.

  5. Flooding Fragility Experiments and Prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Curtis L.; Tahhan, Antonio; Muchmore, Cody; Nichols, Larinda; Bhandari, Bishwo; Pope, Chad

    2016-01-01

    This report describes the work that has been performed on flooding fragility, both the experimental tests being carried out and the probabilistic fragility predictive models being produced in order to use the text results. Flooding experiments involving full-scale doors have commenced in the Portal Evaluation Tank. The goal of these experiments is to develop a full-scale component flooding experiment protocol and to acquire data that can be used to create Bayesian regression models representing the fragility of these components. This work is in support of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluation research and development.

  6. Abstract algebra an introductory course

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, Gregory T

    2018-01-01

    This carefully written textbook offers a thorough introduction to abstract algebra, covering the fundamentals of groups, rings and fields. The first two chapters present preliminary topics such as properties of the integers and equivalence relations. The author then explores the first major algebraic structure, the group, progressing as far as the Sylow theorems and the classification of finite abelian groups. An introduction to ring theory follows, leading to a discussion of fields and polynomials that includes sections on splitting fields and the construction of finite fields. The final part contains applications to public key cryptography as well as classical straightedge and compass constructions. Explaining key topics at a gentle pace, this book is aimed at undergraduate students. It assumes no prior knowledge of the subject and contains over 500 exercises, half of which have detailed solutions provided.

  7. Abstract Expression Grammar Symbolic Regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korns, Michael F.

    This chapter examines the use of Abstract Expression Grammars to perform the entire Symbolic Regression process without the use of Genetic Programming per se. The techniques explored produce a symbolic regression engine which has absolutely no bloat, which allows total user control of the search space and output formulas, which is faster, and more accurate than the engines produced in our previous papers using Genetic Programming. The genome is an all vector structure with four chromosomes plus additional epigenetic and constraint vectors, allowing total user control of the search space and the final output formulas. A combination of specialized compiler techniques, genetic algorithms, particle swarm, aged layered populations, plus discrete and continuous differential evolution are used to produce an improved symbolic regression sytem. Nine base test cases, from the literature, are used to test the improvement in speed and accuracy. The improved results indicate that these techniques move us a big step closer toward future industrial strength symbolic regression systems.

  8. Probabilistic flood damage modelling at the meso-scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreibich, Heidi; Botto, Anna; Schröter, Kai; Merz, Bruno

    2014-05-01

    Decisions on flood risk management and adaptation are usually based on risk analyses. Such analyses are associated with significant uncertainty, even more if changes in risk due to global change are expected. Although uncertainty analysis and probabilistic approaches have received increased attention during the last years, they are still not standard practice for flood risk assessments. Most damage models have in common that complex damaging processes are described by simple, deterministic approaches like stage-damage functions. Novel probabilistic, multi-variate flood damage models have been developed and validated on the micro-scale using a data-mining approach, namely bagging decision trees (Merz et al. 2013). In this presentation we show how the model BT-FLEMO (Bagging decision Tree based Flood Loss Estimation MOdel) can be applied on the meso-scale, namely on the basis of ATKIS land-use units. The model is applied in 19 municipalities which were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany. The application of BT-FLEMO provides a probability distribution of estimated damage to residential buildings per municipality. Validation is undertaken on the one hand via a comparison with eight other damage models including stage-damage functions as well as multi-variate models. On the other hand the results are compared with official damage data provided by the Saxon Relief Bank (SAB). The results show, that uncertainties of damage estimation remain high. Thus, the significant advantage of this probabilistic flood loss estimation model BT-FLEMO is that it inherently provides quantitative information about the uncertainty of the prediction. Reference: Merz, B.; Kreibich, H.; Lall, U. (2013): Multi-variate flood damage assessment: a tree-based data-mining approach. NHESS, 13(1), 53-64.

  9. Sensitivity analysis of urban flood flows to hydraulic controls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shangzhi; Garambois, Pierre-André; Finaud-Guyot, Pascal; Dellinger, Guilhem; Terfous, Abdelali; Ghenaim, Abdallah

    2017-04-01

    Flooding represents one of the most significant natural hazards on each continent and particularly in highly populated areas. Improving the accuracy and robustness of prediction systems has become a priority. However, in situ measurements of floods remain difficult while a better understanding of flood flow spatiotemporal dynamics along with dataset for model validations appear essential. The present contribution is based on a unique experimental device at the scale 1/200, able to produce urban flooding with flood flows corresponding to frequent to rare return periods. The influence of 1D Saint Venant and 2D Shallow water model input parameters on simulated flows is assessed using global sensitivity analysis (GSA). The tested parameters are: global and local boundary conditions (water heights and discharge), spatially uniform or distributed friction coefficient and or porosity respectively tested in various ranges centered around their nominal values - calibrated thanks to accurate experimental data and related uncertainties. For various experimental configurations a variance decomposition method (ANOVA) is used to calculate spatially distributed Sobol' sensitivity indices (Si's). The sensitivity of water depth to input parameters on two main streets of the experimental device is presented here. Results show that the closer from the downstream boundary condition on water height, the higher the Sobol' index as predicted by hydraulic theory for subcritical flow, while interestingly the sensitivity to friction decreases. The sensitivity indices of all lateral inflows, representing crossroads in 1D, are also quantified in this study along with their asymptotic trends along flow distance. The relationship between lateral discharge magnitude and resulting sensitivity index of water depth is investigated. Concerning simulations with distributed friction coefficients, crossroad friction is shown to have much higher influence on upstream water depth profile than street

  10. Making Supply Chains Resilient to Floods Using a Bayesian Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haraguchi, M.

    2015-12-01

    Natural hazards distress the global economy by disrupting the interconnected supply chain networks. Manufacturing companies have created cost-efficient supply chains by reducing inventories, streamlining logistics and limiting the number of suppliers. As a result, today's supply chains are profoundly susceptible to systemic risks. In Thailand, for example, the GDP growth rate declined by 76 % in 2011 due to prolonged flooding. Thailand incurred economic damage including the loss of USD 46.5 billion, approximately 70% of which was caused by major supply chain disruptions in the manufacturing sector. Similar problems occurred after the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami in 2011, the Mississippi River floods and droughts during 2011 - 2013, and Hurricane Sandy in 2012. This study proposes a methodology for modeling supply chain disruptions using a Bayesian network analysis (BNA) to estimate expected values of countermeasures of floods, such as inventory management, supplier management and hard infrastructure management. We first performed a spatio-temporal correlation analysis between floods and extreme precipitation data for the last 100 years at a global scale. Then we used a BNA to create synthetic networks that include variables associated with the magnitude and duration of floods, major components of supply chains and market demands. We also included decision variables of countermeasures that would mitigate potential losses caused by supply chain disruptions. Finally, we conducted a cost-benefit analysis by estimating the expected values of these potential countermeasures while conducting a sensitivity analysis. The methodology was applied to supply chain disruptions caused by the 2011 Thailand floods. Our study demonstrates desirable typical data requirements for the analysis, such as anonymized supplier network data (i.e. critical dependencies, vulnerability information of suppliers) and sourcing data(i.e. locations of suppliers, and production rates and

  11. Mapping Daily and Maximum Flood Extents at 90-m Resolution During Hurricanes Harvey and Irma Using Passive Microwave Remote Sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galantowicz, J. F.; Picton, J.; Root, B.

    2017-12-01

    Passive microwave remote sensing can provided a distinct perspective on flood events by virtue of wide sensor fields of view, frequent observations from multiple satellites, and sensitivity through clouds and vegetation. During Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, we used AMSR2 (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2, JAXA) data to map flood extents starting from the first post-storm rain-free sensor passes. Our standard flood mapping algorithm (FloodScan) derives flooded fraction from 22-km microwave data (AMSR2 or NASA's GMI) in near real time and downscales it to 90-m resolution using a database built from topography, hydrology, and Global Surface Water Explorer data and normalized to microwave data footprint shapes. During Harvey and Irma we tested experimental versions of the algorithm designed to map the maximum post-storm flood extent rapidly and made a variety of map products available immediately for use in storm monitoring and response. The maps have several unique features including spanning the entire storm-affected area and providing multiple post-storm updates as flood water shifted and receded. From the daily maps we derived secondary products such as flood duration, maximum flood extent (Figure 1), and flood depth. In this presentation, we describe flood extent evolution, maximum extent, and local details as detected by the FloodScan algorithm in the wake of Harvey and Irma. We compare FloodScan results to other available flood mapping resources, note observed shortcomings, and describe improvements made in response. We also discuss how best-estimate maps could be updated in near real time by merging FloodScan products and data from other remote sensing systems and hydrological models.

  12. Community Based Flood Modeling in Southern and Baja California to Meet End User Needs for Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, B. F.

    2017-12-01

    Flooding of coastal and fluvial systems are the most significant natural hazards facing society, and damages have been escalating for decades globally and in the U.S. Almost all metropolitan areas are exposed to flood risk. The threat from river flooding is especially high in India and China, and coastal cities around the world are threatened by storm surge and rising sea levels. Several trends including rising sea levels, urbanization, deforestation, and rural-to-urban population shifts will increase flood exposure in the future. Flood impacts are escalating despite advances in hazards science and extensive effort to manage risks. The fundamental issue is not that flooding is becoming more severe, even though it is in some places, but rather that societies are become more vulnerable to flood impacts. A critical factor contributing to the escalation of flood impacts is that the most vulnerable sectors of communities are left out of processes to prepare for and respond to flooding. Furthermore, the translation of knowledge about flood hazards and vulnerabilities into actionable information for communities has not been effective. In Southern and Baja California, an interdisciplinary team of researchers has partnered with stakeholders in flood vulnerable communities to co-develop flood hazard information systems designed to meet end-user needs for decision-making. The initiative leveraged the power of advanced, fine-scale hydraulic models of flooding to craft intuitive visualizations of context-sensitive scenarios. This presentation will cover the ways by which the process of flood inundation modeling served as a focal point for knowledge development, as well as the unique visualizations that populate on-line information systems accessible here: http://floodrise.uci.edu/online-flood-hazard-viewers/

  13. Structural evaluation of multifunctional flood defenses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Voorendt, M.Z.; Kothuis, Baukje; Kok, Matthijs

    2017-01-01

    Flood risk reduction aims to minimize losses in low-lying areas. One of the ways to reduce flood risks is to protect land by means of flood defenses. The Netherlands has a long tradition of flood protection and, therefore, a wide variety of technical reports written

  14. Adjustable Robust Strategies for Flood Protection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postek, Krzysztof; den Hertog, Dick; Kind, J.; Pustjens, Chris

    2016-01-01

    Flood protection is of major importance to many flood-prone regions and involves substantial investment and maintenance costs. Modern flood risk management requires often to determine a cost-efficient protection strategy, i.e., one with lowest possible long run cost and satisfying flood protection

  15. Local Flood Action Groups: Governance And Resilience

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Forrest, Steven; Trell, Elen-Maarja; Woltjer, Johan; Macoun, Milan; Maier, Karel

    2015-01-01

    A diverse range of citizen groups focusing on flood risk management have been identified in several European countries. The paper discusses the role of flood action (citizen) groups in the context of flood resilience and will do this by analysing the UK and its diverse range of flood groups. These

  16. Flood damage, vulnerability and risk perception - challenges for flood damage research

    OpenAIRE

    Messner, Frank; Meyer, Volker

    2005-01-01

    The current state-of-the-art in flood damage analysis mainly focuses on the economic evaluation of tangible flood effects. It is contended in this discussion paper that important economic, social and ecological aspects of flood-related vulnerabilities are neglected. It is a challenge for flood research to develop a wider perspective for flood damage evaluation.

  17. Record Balkan floods of 2014 linked to planetary wave resonance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stadtherr, Lisa; Coumou, Dim; Petoukhov, Vladimir; Petri, Stefan; Rahmstorf, Stefan

    2016-04-01

    In May 2014, the Balkans were hit by a Vb-type cyclone that brought disastrous flooding and severe damage to Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, and Croatia. Vb cyclones migrate from the Mediterranean, where they absorb warm and moist air, to the north, often causing flooding in central/eastern Europe. Extreme rainfall events are increasing on a global scale, and both thermodynamic and dynamical mechanisms play a role. Where thermodynamic aspects are generally well understood, there is large uncertainty associated with current and future changes in dynamics. We study the climatic and meteorological factors that influenced the catastrophic flooding in the Balkans, where we focus on large-scale circulation. We show that the Vb cyclone was unusually stationary, bringing extreme rainfall for several consecutive days, and that this situation was likely linked to a quasi-stationary circumglobal Rossby wave train. We provide evidence that this quasi-stationary wave was amplified by wave resonance. Statistical analysis of daily spring rainfall over the Balkan region reveals significant upward trends over 1950-2014, especially in the high quantiles relevant for flooding events. These changes cannot be explained by simple thermodynamic arguments, and we thus argue that dynamical processes likely played a role in increasing flood risks over the Balkans.

  18. Enhancing Flood Prediction Reliability Using Bayesian Model Averaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Z.; Merwade, V.

    2017-12-01

    Uncertainty analysis is an indispensable part of modeling the hydrology and hydrodynamics of non-idealized environmental systems. Compared to reliance on prediction from one model simulation, using on ensemble of predictions that consider uncertainty from different sources is more reliable. In this study, Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is applied to Black River watershed in Arkansas and Missouri by combining multi-model simulations to get reliable deterministic water stage and probabilistic inundation extent predictions. The simulation ensemble is generated from 81 LISFLOOD-FP subgrid model configurations that include uncertainty from channel shape, channel width, channel roughness and discharge. Model simulation outputs are trained with observed water stage data during one flood event, and BMA prediction ability is validated for another flood event. Results from this study indicate that BMA does not always outperform all members in the ensemble, but it provides relatively robust deterministic flood stage predictions across the basin. Station based BMA (BMA_S) water stage prediction has better performance than global based BMA (BMA_G) prediction which is superior to the ensemble mean prediction. Additionally, high-frequency flood inundation extent (probability greater than 60%) in BMA_G probabilistic map is more accurate than the probabilistic flood inundation extent based on equal weights.

  19. Flood Resilient Systems and their Application for Flood Resilient Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manojlovic, N.; Gabalda, V.; Antanaskovic, D.; Gershovich, I.; Pasche, E.

    2012-04-01

    Following the paradigm shift in flood management from traditional to more integrated approaches, and considering the uncertainties of future development due to drivers such as climate change, one of the main emerging tasks of flood managers becomes the development of (flood) resilient cities. It can be achieved by application of non-structural - flood resilience measures, summarised in the 4As: assistance, alleviation, awareness and avoidance (FIAC, 2007). As a part of this strategy, the key aspect of development of resilient cities - resilient built environment can be reached by efficient application of Flood Resilience Technology (FReT) and its meaningful combination into flood resilient systems (FRS). FRS are given as [an interconnecting network of FReT which facilitates resilience (including both restorative and adaptive capacity) to flooding, addressing physical and social systems and considering different flood typologies] (SMARTeST, http://www.floodresilience.eu/). Applying the system approach (e.g. Zevenbergen, 2008), FRS can be developed at different scales from the building to the city level. Still, a matter of research is a method to define and systematise different FRS crossing those scales. Further, the decision on which resilient system is to be applied for the given conditions and given scale is a complex task, calling for utilisation of decision support tools. This process of decision-making should follow the steps of flood risk assessment (1) and development of a flood resilience plan (2) (Manojlovic et al, 2009). The key problem in (2) is how to match the input parameters that describe physical&social system and flood typology to the appropriate flood resilient system. Additionally, an open issue is how to integrate the advances in FReT and findings on its efficiency into decision support tools. This paper presents a way to define, systematise and make decisions on FRS at different scales of an urban system developed within the 7th FP Project

  20. Flood Fighting Products Research Facility

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — A wave research basin at the ERDC Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory has been modified specifically for testing of temporary, barrier-type, flood fighting products....