WorldWideScience

Sample records for absolute sea level

  1. Changes in Absolute Sea Level Along U.S. Coasts

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This map shows changes in absolute sea level from 1960 to 2016 based on satellite measurements. Data were adjusted by applying an inverted barometer (air pressure)...

  2. Global change and the measurement of absolute sea-level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diamante, John M.; Pyle, Thomas E.; Carter, William E.; Scherer, Wolfgang

    -300) required for global climate research programmes (WYRTKI and PUGH, 1984) need to be upgraded to “sea-level observatory” status, in terms of sensors and geodetic control, to build a two tier sea-level network that will provide the data needed to solve many problems of both relative and absolute sea-level change. Such a network will provide basic information supporting research on a wide range of questions related to “global change”.

  3. The Determination of Absolute Sea level Rise in New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannah, J.; Denys, P. H.; Beavan, R. J.

    2010-12-01

    Long term sea level trends at five New Zealand tide gauges with records > 60 yr in length have been determined through to the end of 2008. These gauges, with a wide spatial distribution, reveal an average relative sea level rise across of 1.7 ± 0.1 mm/yr. When a Glacial Isostatic adjustment (GIA) is applied using Peltier’s ICE 5G (v1.2) model, this estimated trend rises to 2.0 mm/yr. However, the absolute trends, when calculated using approximately 10 years of cGPS data at the four gauges with the longest records (Auckland, Wellington, Lyttelton and Dunedin), show a sea level rise of only 1.2 ± 0.4 mm/yr. If the Wellington gauge (located in the transitional plate boundary zone) is removed, this absolute trend rises to 1.4 mm/yr. This paper outlines how the above results were obtained and discusses proposed future research directions. It also includes previously unpublished data on relative sea level trends as determined at a further four New Zealand tide gauge sites.

  4. Simultaneous estimation of lithospheric uplift rates and absolute sea level change in southwest Scandinavia from inversion of sea level data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lars; Hansen, Jens Morten; Hede, Mikkel Ulfeldt

    2014-01-01

    of the obtained results. The two tested inversion schemes result in estimated absolute sea level rise of ∼1.2/1.3 mm yr–1 and vertical uplift rates ranging from approximately −1.4/−1.2 mm yr–1 (subsidence) to about 5.0/5.2 mm yr–1 if an a priori value of 1 mm yr–1 is used for the vertical lithospheric movement...... sea level data exists and well-constrained average lithospheric movement values are known from, for example glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models. The inversion approaches are tested and used for simultaneous estimation of lithospheric uplift rates and absolute sea level change rates in southwest...... that realistic values of absolute sea level rise and lithospheric uplift may be simultaneously estimated provided that reliable prior knowledge regarding the overall lithospheric uplift in the study area is available beforehand. In the presented parametrizations, only one absolute sea level change rate value...

  5. Validation of Mean Absolute Sea Level of the North Atlantic obtained from Drifter, Altimetry and Wind Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maximenko, Nikolai A.

    2003-01-01

    Mean absolute sea level reflects the deviation of the Ocean surface from geoid due to the ocean currents and is an important characteristic of the dynamical state of the ocean. Values of its spatial variations (order of 1 m) are generally much smaller than deviations of the geoid shape from ellipsoid (order of 100 m) that makes the derivation of the absolute mean sea level a difficult task for gravity and satellite altimetry observations. Technique used by Niiler et al. for computation of the absolute mean sea level in the Kuroshio Extension was then developed into more general method and applied by Niiler et al. (2003b) to the global Ocean. The method is based on the consideration of balance of horizontal momentum.

  6. Comparing the role of absolute sea-level rise and vertical tectonic motions in coastal flooding, Torres Islands (Vanuatu).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballu, Valérie; Bouin, Marie-Noëlle; Siméoni, Patricia; Crawford, Wayne C; Calmant, Stephane; Boré, Jean-Michel; Kanas, Tony; Pelletier, Bernard

    2011-08-09

    Since the late 1990s, rising sea levels around the Torres Islands (north Vanuatu, southwest Pacific) have caused strong local and international concern. In 2002-2004, a village was displaced due to increasing sea incursions, and in 2005 a United Nations Environment Programme press release referred to the displaced village as perhaps the world's first climate change "refugees." We show here that vertical motions of the Torres Islands themselves dominate the apparent sea-level rise observed on the islands. From 1997 to 2009, the absolute sea level rose by 150 + /-20 mm. But GPS data reveal that the islands subsided by 117 + /-30 mm over the same time period, almost doubling the apparent gradual sea-level rise. Moreover, large earthquakes that occurred just before and after this period caused several hundreds of mm of sudden vertical motion, generating larger apparent sea-level changes than those observed during the entire intervening period. Our results show that vertical ground motions must be accounted for when evaluating sea-level change hazards in active tectonic regions. These data are needed to help communities and governments understand environmental changes and make the best decisions for their future.

  7. Absolute sea levels and isostatic changes of the eastern North Sea to central Baltic region during the last 900 years

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Jens Morten; Aagaard, Troels; Binderup, Merete

    2012-01-01

    that ice-cap growth can be faster than ice-cap melting. By comparison with 29 long-term tide gauge measurements of the region we show that the isostatic implications of the sea-level curve are in nearly perfect agreement with Peltier's global isostatic VM2 model (applied by IPCC and PSMSL) and yield a 3...

  8. Sea level rise

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Warrick, R.A.; Oerlemans, J.

    1990-01-01

    This Section addresses three questions: Has global-mean sea level been rising during the last 100 years? What are the causal factors that could explain a past rise in sea level? And what increases in sea level can be expected in the future?

  9. Sea level report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwartz, M.L.

    1979-01-01

    Study of Cenozoic Era sea levels shows a continual lowering of sea level through the Tertiary Period. This overall drop in sea level accompanied the Pleistocene Epoch glacio-eustatic fluctuations. The considerable change of Pleistocene Epoch sea level is most directly attributable to the glacio-eustatic factor, with a time span of 10 5 years and an amplitude or range of approximately 200 m. The lowering of sea level since the end of the Cretaceous Period is attributed to subsidence and mid-ocean ridges. The maximum rate for sea level change is 4 cm/y. At present, mean sea level is rising at about 3 to 4 mm/y. Glacio-eustacy and tectono-eustacy are the parameters for predicting sea level changes in the next 1 my. Glacio-eustatic sea level changes may be projected on the basis of the Milankovitch Theory. Predictions about tectono-eustatic sea level changes, however, involve predictions about future tectonic activity and are therefore somewhat difficult to make. Coastal erosion and sedimentation are affected by changes in sea level. Erosion rates for soft sediments may be as much as 50 m/y. The maximum sedimentation accumulation rate is 20 m/100 y

  10. Arctic Sea Level Reconstruction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svendsen, Peter Limkilde

    Reconstruction of historical Arctic sea level is very difficult due to the limited coverage and quality of tide gauge and altimetry data in the area. This thesis addresses many of these issues, and discusses strategies to help achieve a stable and plausible reconstruction of Arctic sea level from...... 1950 to today.The primary record of historical sea level, on the order of several decades to a few centuries, is tide gauges. Tide gauge records from around the world are collected in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) database, and includes data along the Arctic coasts. A reasonable...... amount of data is available along the Norwegian and Russian coasts since 1950, and most published research on Arctic sea level extends cautiously from these areas. Very little tide gauge data is available elsewhere in the Arctic, and records of a length of several decades,as generally recommended for sea-level...

  11. Contemporary Arctic Sea Level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cazenave, A. A.

    2017-12-01

    During recent decades, the Arctic region has warmed at a rate about twice the rest of the globe. Sea ice melting is increasing and the Greenland ice sheet is losing mass at an accelerated rate. Arctic warming, decrease in the sea ice cover and fresh water input to the Arctic ocean may eventually impact the Arctic sea level. In this presentation, we review our current knowledge of contemporary Arctic sea level changes. Until the beginning of the 1990s, Arctic sea level variations were essentially deduced from tide gauges located along the Russian and Norwegian coastlines. Since then, high inclination satellite altimetry missions have allowed measuring sea level over a large portion of the Arctic Ocean (up to 80 degree north). Measuring sea level in the Arctic by satellite altimetry is challenging because the presence of sea ice cover limits the full capacity of this technique. However adapted processing of raw altimetric measurements significantly increases the number of valid data, hence the data coverage, from which regional sea level variations can be extracted. Over the altimetry era, positive trend patterns are observed over the Beaufort Gyre and along the east coast of Greenland, while negative trends are reported along the Siberian shelf. On average over the Arctic region covered by satellite altimetry, the rate of sea level rise since 1992 is slightly less than the global mea sea level rate (of about 3 mm per year). On the other hand, the interannual variability is quite significant. Space gravimetry data from the GRACE mission and ocean reanalyses provide information on the mass and steric contributions to sea level, hence on the sea level budget. Budget studies show that regional sea level trends over the Beaufort Gyre and along the eastern coast of Greenland, are essentially due to salinity changes. However, in terms of regional average, the net steric component contributes little to the observed sea level trend. The sea level budget in the Arctic

  12. Sea Surface Height, Absolute, Aviso, 0.25 degrees, Global, Science Quality

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Aviso Absolute Sea Surface Height is the Sea Surface Height Deviation plus the long term mean dynamic height. This is Science Quality data.

  13. Projecting future sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, Daniel R.; Bromirski, Peter; Hayhoe, Katharine; Tyree, Mary; Dettinger, Mike; Flick, Reinhard

    2006-01-01

    California’s coastal observations and global model projections indicate that California’s open coast and estuaries will experience increasing sea levels over the next century. Sea level rise has affected much of the coast of California, including the Southern California coast, the Central California open coast, and the San Francisco Bay and upper estuary. These trends, quantified from a small set of California tide gages, have ranged from 10–20 centimeters (cm) (3.9–7.9 inches) per century, quite similar to that estimated for global mean sea level. So far, there is little evidence that the rate of rise has accelerated, and the rate of rise at California tide gages has actually flattened since 1980, but projections suggest substantial sea level rise may occur over the next century. Climate change simulations project a substantial rate of global sea level rise over the next century due to thermal expansion as the oceans warm and runoff from melting land-based snow and ice accelerates. Sea level rise projected from the models increases with the amount of warming. Relative to sea levels in 2000, by the 2070–2099 period, sea level rise projections range from 11–54 cm (4.3–21 in) for simulations following the lower (B1) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario, from 14–61 cm (5.5–24 in) for the middle-upper (A2) emission scenario, and from 17–72 cm (6.7–28 in) for the highest (A1fi) scenario. In addition to relatively steady secular trends, sea levels along the California coast undergo shorter period variability above or below predicted tide levels and changes associated with long-term trends. These variations are caused by weather events and by seasonal to decadal climate fluctuations over the Pacific Ocean that in turn affect the Pacific coast. Highest coastal sea levels have occurred when winter storms and Pacific climate disturbances, such as El Niño, have coincided with high astronomical tides. This study considers a range of projected future

  14. Caribbean Sea Level Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Hillebrandt-Andrade, C.; Crespo Jones, H.

    2012-12-01

    Over the past 500 years almost 100 tsunamis have been observed in the Caribbean and Western Atlantic, with at least 3510 people having lost their lives to this hazard since 1842. Furthermore, with the dramatic increase in population and infrastructure along the Caribbean coasts, today, millions of coastal residents, workers and visitors are vulnerable to tsunamis. The UNESCO IOC Intergovernmental Coordination Group for Tsunamis and other Coastal Hazards for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions (CARIBE EWS) was established in 2005 to coordinate and advance the regional tsunami warning system. The CARIBE EWS focuses on four areas/working groups: (1) Monitoring and Warning, (2) Hazard and Risk Assessment, (3) Communication and (4) Education, Preparedness and Readiness. The sea level monitoring component is under Working Group 1. Although in the current system, it's the seismic data and information that generate the initial tsunami bulletins, it is the data from deep ocean buoys (DARTS) and the coastal sea level gauges that are critical for the actual detection and forecasting of tsunamis impact. Despite multiple efforts and investments in the installation of sea level stations in the region, in 2004 there were only a handful of sea level stations operational in the region (Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands, Bermuda, Bahamas). Over the past 5 years there has been a steady increase in the number of stations operating in the Caribbean region. As of mid 2012 there were 7 DARTS and 37 coastal gauges with additional ones being installed or funded. In order to reach the goal of 100 operational coastal sea level stations in the Caribbean, the CARIBE EWS recognizes also the importance of maintaining the current stations. For this, a trained workforce in the region for the installation, operation and data analysis and quality control is considered to be critical. Since 2008, three training courses have been offered to the sea level station operators and data analysts. Other

  15. Sea level change

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Church, J.A.; Clark, P.U.; Cazenave, A.; Gregory, J.M.; Jevrejeva, S.; Levermann, A.; Merrifield, M.A.; Milne, G.A.; Nerem, R.S.; Nunn, P.D.; Payne, A.J.; Pfeffer, W.T.; Stammer, D.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.

    .1.1 Introduction and Chapter Overview Changes in sea level occur over a broad range of temporal and spatial scales, with the many contributing factors making it an integral meas- ure of climate change (Milne et al., 2009; Church et al., 2010). The pri- mary... contributors to contemporary sea level change are the expansion of the ocean as it warms and the transfer of water currently stored on land to the ocean, particularly from land ice (glaciers and ice sheets) (Church et al., 2011a). Observations indicate...

  16. Absolute local sea surface in the Vanuatu Archipelago from GPS, satellite altimetry and pressure gauge data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, K. K.; Ballu, V.; Bouin, M.; Calmant, S.; Shum, C.

    2004-12-01

    Water height measurements provided by seafloor tide gauges are a combination of sea level variation and local ground motion. Both signals are of scientific interest, but they must be separated in order to be useful. A reliable estimation of the vertical ground motion is important in very seismically areas such as the Pacific Ocean rim. One promising method to separate the two contributions is to use satellite altimetry which gives absolute water height that is independent of the local ground motion. However, the altimeter data must be calibrated using ground truth measurements. Once different components of the signal are separated, bottom pressure gauges can be used to detect vertical movements of the seafloor. The Vanuatu Archipelago is part of the Pacific "ring of fire", where plates are quickly converging. In this area, movements are very rapid and the seismic activity is intense, which gives a good opportunity to study deformation and seismic cycle. To get an integrate picture of vertical deformation over one plate and between the two plates, one needs to be able to monitor vertical movements on both underwater and emerged areas. We conducted an experiment in this area to compare measurements from bottom pressure gauges located beneath altimetry satellite tracks with sea surface altitude measurements from GPS. Two bottom pressure gauge are immerged since Nov. 1999 in this region. In order to perform absolute calibration for multiple satellite altimeters that overfly the region, we conducted 2 campaigns of GPS measurements of instantaneous sea surface height onboard the R/V Alis and using a GPS buoy. We present results of GPS computations for the March 2003 and March 2004 campaigns. These sea level GPS measurements are compared with multiple altimeter-measured sea surface heights, and sampling differences and high frequency variations were removed using continuous pressure gauge data. The observed discrepancies are likely to be explained by local geoid

  17. SEA LEVEL (TOPEX/POSEIDON)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Sea level rise is caused by the thermal expansion of sea water due to climate warming and widespread melting of land ice. The TOPEX/POSEIDON mission a joint...

  18. Absolute Height of Sea Surface by Trajectory of GPS Antennae Over Submerged Pressure Gauges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouin, M.; Calmant, S.; Cheng, K.; Ballu, V.; Shum, C. K.; Testut, L.

    2003-12-01

    Water height data provided by seafloor tide gauges is a combination of sea-level variations and ground motion. Both of these signals are of scientific interest, but they must be separated in order to be useful. Estimating ground motion is specially important in very tectonically active areas such as the Pacific Ocean rim. One promising method to separate the two contributions is to use satellite altimetry data which gives absolute water height, but these data must be calibrated using ground truth measurements. Once different components of the signal are separated, bottom pressure gauges can be used to detect vertical movements of the seafloor such as co-seismic or slow inter-seismic motions. The Vanuatu archipelago is part of the Pacific ring of fire, where plates are rapidly converging. In the area, movements are very rapid and the seismic activity is intense, which gives a good opportunity to study deformation and seismic cycle. To get an integrate picture of vertical deformation over one plate and between the two plates, one needs to be able to monitor vertical movements on both underwater and emerged areas. We conducted an experiment in the Vanuatu archipelago, South-West Pacific, to compare measurements from bottom pressure gauges located beneath altimetry satellite tracks with sea surface altitude measurements from GPS. Two bottom pressure gauges are immerged since Nov. 1999 on Sabine bank (15.90° S, 166.14° E) and Wusi Bank (15.34° S, 166.55° E), West of Santo island, Vanuatu. In order to perform absolute calibrations of JASON and ENVISAT altimeters that overfly the Wusi and Sabine banks, respectively, we performed GPS measurements of instantaneous sea surface altitude. The GPS antennae were fixed on top of the 30m long R/V Alis. An inertial unit also recorded the high frequency vessel motions. The height of the antennae over the sea surface was measured using a laser distancemeter in calibration sessions during particularly calm sea states. We present

  19. Sea Level Rise Data Discovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quach, N.; Huang, T.; Boening, C.; Gill, K. M.

    2016-12-01

    Research related to sea level rise crosses multiple disciplines from sea ice to land hydrology. The NASA Sea Level Change Portal (SLCP) is a one-stop source for current sea level change information and data, including interactive tools for accessing and viewing regional data, a virtual dashboard of sea level indicators, and ongoing updates through a suite of editorial products that include content articles, graphics, videos, and animations. The architecture behind the SLCP makes it possible to integrate web content and data relevant to sea level change that are archived across various data centers as well as new data generated by sea level change principal investigators. The Extensible Data Gateway Environment (EDGE) is incorporated into the SLCP architecture to provide a unified platform for web content and science data discovery. EDGE is a data integration platform designed to facilitate high-performance geospatial data discovery and access with the ability to support multi-metadata standard specifications. EDGE has the capability to retrieve data from one or more sources and package the resulting sets into a single response to the requestor. With this unified endpoint, the Data Analysis Tool that is available on the SLCP can retrieve dataset and granule level metadata as well as perform geospatial search on the data. This talk focuses on the architecture that makes it possible to seamlessly integrate and enable discovery of disparate data relevant to sea level rise.

  20. Spatial sea-level reconstruction in the Baltic Sea and in the Pacific Ocean from tide gauges observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Olivieri

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Exploiting the Delaunay interpolation, we present a newly implemented 2-D sea-level reconstruction from coastal sea-level observations to open seas, with the aim of characterizing the spatial variability of the rate of sea-level change. To test the strengths and weaknesses of this method and to determine its usefulness in sea-level interpolation, we consider the case studies of the Baltic Sea and of the Pacific Ocean. In the Baltic Sea, a small basin well sampled by tide gauges, our reconstructions are successfully compared with absolute sea-level observations from altimetry during 1993-2011. The regional variability of absolute sea level observed across the Pacific Ocean, however, cannot be reproduced. We interpret this result as the effect of the uneven and sparse tide gauge data set and of the composite vertical land movements in and around the region. Useful considerations arise that can serve as a basis for developing sophisticated approaches.

  1. The Barbados Sea Level Record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fairbanks, R. G.; Mortlock, R. A.; Abdul, N. A.; Wright, J. D.; Cao, L.; Mey, J. L.

    2013-12-01

    Additional offshore drill cores, nearly 100 new radiometric dates, and more than 1000 kilometers of Multibeam mapping greatly enhance the Barbados Sea Level record. Extensive Multibeam mapping around the entire island covers approximately 2650 km2 of the sea bottom and now integrates the offshore reef topography and Barbados Sea Level Record with the unparalleled onshore core collection, digital elevation maps, and Pleistocene sea level record spanning the past one million years. The reef crest coral, Acropora palmata, remains the stalwart indicator of sea level for many reasons that are validated by our redundant sea level records and redundant dating via Th/U and Pa/U analyses. Microanalysis and densitometry studies better explain why Acropora palmata is so well preserved in the Pleistocene reef records and therefore why it is the species of choice for sea level reconstructions and radiometric dating. New drill cores into reefs that formed during Marine Isotope Stage 3 lead us to a model of diagenesis that allows us to better prospect for unaltered coral samples in older reefs that may be suitable for Th/U dating. Equally important, our diagenesis model reinforces our rigorous sample quality criteria in a more quantitative manner. The Barbados Sea Level record has a sampling resolution of better than 100 years throughout much of the last deglaciation showing unprecedented detail in redundant drill cores. The Melt Water Pulses (MWP1A and MWP1B) are well resolved and the intervening interval that includes the Younger Dryas reveals sea level changes in new detail that are consistent with the terrestrial records of ice margins (see Abdul et al., this section). More than 100 paired Th/U and radiocarbon ages place the Barbados Sea Level Record unambiguously on the radiocarbon time scale for direct comparisons with the terrestrial records of ice margin changes.

  2. Intermittent sea-level acceleration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olivieri, M.; Spada, G.

    2013-10-01

    Using instrumental observations from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL), we provide a new assessment of the global sea-level acceleration for the last ~ 2 centuries (1820-2010). Our results, obtained by a stack of tide gauge time series, confirm the existence of a global sea-level acceleration (GSLA) and, coherently with independent assessments so far, they point to a value close to 0.01 mm/yr2. However, differently from previous studies, we discuss how change points or abrupt inflections in individual sea-level time series have contributed to the GSLA. Our analysis, based on methods borrowed from econometrics, suggests the existence of two distinct driving mechanisms for the GSLA, both involving a minority of tide gauges globally. The first effectively implies a gradual increase in the rate of sea-level rise at individual tide gauges, while the second is manifest through a sequence of catastrophic variations of the sea-level trend. These occurred intermittently since the end of the 19th century and became more frequent during the last four decades.

  3. Acceleration of Sea Level Rise Over Malaysian Seas from Satellite Altimeter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamid, A. I. A.; Din, A. H. M.; Khalid, N. F.; Omar, K. M.

    2016-09-01

    Sea level rise becomes our concern nowadays as a result of variously contribution of climate change that cause by the anthropogenic effects. Global sea levels have been rising through the past century and are projected to rise at an accelerated rate throughout the 21st century. Due to this change, sea level is now constantly rising and eventually will threaten many low-lying and unprotected coastal areas in many ways. This paper is proposing a significant effort to quantify the sea level trend over Malaysian seas based on the combination of multi-mission satellite altimeters over a period of 23 years. Eight altimeter missions are used to derive the absolute sea level from Radar Altimeter Database System (RADS). Data verification is then carried out to verify the satellite derived sea level rise data with tidal data. Eight selected tide gauge stations from Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak are chosen for this data verification. The pattern and correlation of both measurements of sea level anomalies (SLA) are evaluated over the same period in each area in order to produce comparable results. Afterwards, the time series of the sea level trend is quantified using robust fit regression analysis. The findings clearly show that the absolute sea level trend is rising and varying over the Malaysian seas with the rate of sea level varies and gradually increase from east to west of Malaysia. Highly confident and correlation level of the 23 years measurement data with an astonishing root mean square difference permits the absolute sea level trend of the Malaysian seas has raised at the rate 3.14 ± 0.12 mm yr-1 to 4.81 ± 0.15 mm yr-1 for the chosen sub-areas, with an overall mean of 4.09 ± 0.12 mm yr-1. This study hopefully offers a beneficial sea level information to be applied in a wide range of related environmental and climatology issue such as flood and global warming.

  4. ACCELERATION OF SEA LEVEL RISE OVER MALAYSIAN SEAS FROM SATELLITE ALTIMETER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. I. A. Hamid

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Sea level rise becomes our concern nowadays as a result of variously contribution of climate change that cause by the anthropogenic effects. Global sea levels have been rising through the past century and are projected to rise at an accelerated rate throughout the 21st century. Due to this change, sea level is now constantly rising and eventually will threaten many low-lying and unprotected coastal areas in many ways. This paper is proposing a significant effort to quantify the sea level trend over Malaysian seas based on the combination of multi-mission satellite altimeters over a period of 23 years. Eight altimeter missions are used to derive the absolute sea level from Radar Altimeter Database System (RADS. Data verification is then carried out to verify the satellite derived sea level rise data with tidal data. Eight selected tide gauge stations from Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak are chosen for this data verification. The pattern and correlation of both measurements of sea level anomalies (SLA are evaluated over the same period in each area in order to produce comparable results. Afterwards, the time series of the sea level trend is quantified using robust fit regression analysis. The findings clearly show that the absolute sea level trend is rising and varying over the Malaysian seas with the rate of sea level varies and gradually increase from east to west of Malaysia. Highly confident and correlation level of the 23 years measurement data with an astonishing root mean square difference permits the absolute sea level trend of the Malaysian seas has raised at the rate 3.14 ± 0.12 mm yr-1 to 4.81 ± 0.15 mm yr-1 for the chosen sub-areas, with an overall mean of 4.09 ± 0.12 mm yr-1. This study hopefully offers a beneficial sea level information to be applied in a wide range of related environmental and climatology issue such as flood and global warming.

  5. USACE Extreme Sea levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-03-14

    Pattiaratchi, C., Jensen, J., 2013. Estimating extreme water level probabilities: a comparison of the direct methods and recommendations for best practise ...will discuss with Jason Engle and determine the best way to proceed. • Kate will provide a copy of the storm climate analysis report that Andy Garcia...Gouldby, HR Wallingford) 12:50 to 2:00: Lunch 2:00 to 2:25: Best Practices and Analysis Methodologies (Jeff Melby, USACE) 2:25 to 3:10

  6. Changes in extreme sea levels in the Baltic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dieterich, Christian; Gröger, Matthias; Andersson, Helén; Nerheim, Signild; Jönsson, Anette

    2016-04-01

    A newly developed shallow water model for the Baltic Sea and North Sea is presented. The model is validated by means of a comparison with hindcast simulations with observational data sets. The aim of the development is to provide and apply a modelling tool to model extreme sea levels in the Baltic Sea, Kattegat and Skagerrak. The model approach will support the direct analysis of extreme sea level observations in the past and provide the possibility to extend the statistical data base by producing very long time series or very large ensembles of coastal sea levels. This effort is intended to contribute to an assessment of risks due to storm surges and coastal flooding in the 21st century along the coast of Sweden. By using different RCP climate scenarios downscaled with a regional, coupled climate model atmospheric forcing is available to project possible changes in extreme sea levels into the future. Projected sea level rise, changes in dynamical sea level in the North East Atlantic and tidal forcing in the northern North Sea are applied as boundary condition which allows to investigate their impact on the dynamics of regional sea level variability. Initial experiments focus on the impact of model resolution, resolution in the atmospheric forcing and the amount of details necessary in the bathymetry to faithfully model coastal sea level in the Baltic Sea and North Sea.

  7. Mangrove dieback during fluctuating sea levels

    OpenAIRE

    Lovelock, Catherine E.; Feller, Ilka C.; Reef, Ruth; Hickey, Sharyn; Ball, Marilyn C.

    2017-01-01

    Recent evidence indicates that climate change and intensification of the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has increased variation in sea level. Although widespread impacts on intertidal ecosystems are anticipated to arise from the sea level seesaw associated with climate change, none have yet been demonstrated. Intertidal ecosystems, including mangrove forests are among those ecosystems that are highly vulnerable to sea level rise, but they may also be vulnerable to sea level variability a...

  8. Chapter 12: Sea Level Rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweet, W. V.; Horton, R.; Kopp, R. E.; LeGrande, A. N.; Romanou, A.

    2017-01-01

    Global mean sea level (GMSL) has risen by about 7-8 inches (about 16-21 cm) since 1900, with about 3 of those inches (about 7 cm) occurring since 1993. Human-caused climate change has made a substantial contribution to GMSL rise since 1900, contributing to a rate of rise that is greater than during any preceding century in at least 2,800 years. Relative to the year 2000, GMSL is very likely to rise by 0.3-0.6 feet (9-18 cm) by 2030, 0.5-1.2 feet (15-38 cm) by 2050, and 1.0-4.3 feet (30-130 cm) by 2100. Future pathways have little effect on projected GMSL rise in the first half of the century, but significantly affect projections for the second half of the century. Emerging science regarding Antarctic ice sheet stability suggests that, for high emission scenarios, a GMSL rise exceeding 8 feet (2.4 m) by 2100 is physically possible, although the probability of such an extreme outcome cannot currently be assessed. Regardless of pathway, it is extremely likely that GMSL rise will continue beyond 2100. Relative sea level (RSL) rise in this century will vary along U.S. coastlines due, in part, to changes in Earth's gravitational field and rotation from melting of land ice, changes in ocean circulation, and vertical land motion (very high confidence). For almost all future GMSL rise scenarios, RSL rise is likely to be greater than the global average in the U.S. Northeast and the western Gulf of Mexico. In intermediate and low GMSL rise scenarios, RSL rise is likely to be less than the global average in much of the Pacific Northwest and Alaska. For high GMSL rise scenarios, RSL rise is likely to be higher than the global average along all U.S. coastlines outside Alaska. Almost all U.S. coastlines experience more than global mean sea level rise in response to Antarctic ice loss, and thus would be particularly affected under extreme GMSL rise scenarios involving substantial Antarctic mass loss. As sea levels have risen, the number of tidal floods each year that cause minor

  9. Sea level trend and variability in the Singapore Strait

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Tkalich

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Sea level in the Singapore Strait (SS exhibits response to various scale phenomena, from local to global. Longest tide gauge records in SS are analysed to derive local sea level trend and annual, inter-annual and multi-decadal sea level variability, which then are attributed to regional and global phenomena. Annual data gaps are reconstructed using functions correlating sea level variability with ENSO. At annual scale, sea level anomalies in SS are (quasi-periodic monsoon-driven, of the order of ±20 cm, the highest during northeast monsoon and the lowest during southwest monsoon. Interannual regional sea level drops are associated with El Niño events, while the rises are correlated with La Niña episodes; both variations are in the range of ±5 cm. At multi-decadal scale, annual measured sea levels in SS are varying with global mean sea level, rising at the rate 1.2–1.7 mm yr−1 for 1975–2009, 1.8–2.3 mm yr−1 for 1984–2009 and 1.9–4.6 mm yr−1 for 1993–2009. When SS rates are compared with the global trends (2.0, 2.4 and 2.8 mm yr−1, respectively derived from tide gauge measurements for the same periods, they are smaller in the earlier era and considerably larger in the recent one. Taking into account the first estimate of land subsidence rate, 1–1.5 mm yr−1 in Singapore, the recent trend of absolute sea level rise in SS follows regional tendency.

  10. Sea Level Variations at Monterey, California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-03-01

    stations from Crescent City to Quepos. Processes producing the El Ni7o phenomenon along the coast of Peru also apparently affect sea level at Monterey. 46...were periods of strong El Nifo activity in the Eastern Tropical Pacific. Sea levels and dynamic heights were normal or near normal during non- El Nino ...events affecting sea levels in the group of stations from Crescent City, California to Quepos, Costa Rica. Processes producing the El Ni-o phenomenon

  11. Photonic microwave signals with zeptosecond-level absolute timing noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Xiaopeng; Bouchand, Romain; Nicolodi, Daniele; Giunta, Michele; Hänsel, Wolfgang; Lezius, Matthias; Joshi, Abhay; Datta, Shubhashish; Alexandre, Christophe; Lours, Michel; Tremblin, Pierre-Alain; Santarelli, Giorgio; Holzwarth, Ronald; Le Coq, Yann

    2017-01-01

    Photonic synthesis of radiofrequency (RF) waveforms revived the quest for unrivalled microwave purity because of its ability to convey the benefits of optics to the microwave world. In this work, we perform a high-fidelity transfer of frequency stability between an optical reference and a microwave signal via a low-noise fibre-based frequency comb and cutting-edge photodetection techniques. We demonstrate the generation of the purest microwave signal with a fractional frequency stability below 6.5 × 10-16 at 1 s and a timing noise floor below 41 zs Hz-1/2 (phase noise below -173 dBc Hz-1 for a 12 GHz carrier). This outperforms existing sources and promises a new era for state-of-the-art microwave generation. The characterization is achieved through a heterodyne cross-correlation scheme with the lowermost detection noise. This unprecedented level of purity can impact domains such as radar systems, telecommunications and time-frequency metrology. The measurement methods developed here can benefit the characterization of a broad range of signals.

  12. Sea level rise : A literature survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oude Essink, G.H.P.

    1992-01-01

    In order to assess the impact of sea level rise on Water Management, it is useful to understand the mechanisrns that determine the level of the sea. In this study, a literature survey is executed to analyze these mechanisms. Climate plays a centra! role in these mechanisms, Climate mainly changes

  13. Causes for contemporary regional sea level changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stammer, Detlef; Cazenave, Anny; Ponte, Rui M; Tamisiea, Mark E

    2013-01-01

    Regional sea level changes can deviate substantially from those of the global mean, can vary on a broad range of timescales, and in some regions can even lead to a reversal of long-term global mean sea level trends. The underlying causes are associated with dynamic variations in the ocean circulation as part of climate modes of variability and with an isostatic adjustment of Earth's crust to past and ongoing changes in polar ice masses and continental water storage. Relative to the coastline, sea level is also affected by processes such as earthquakes and anthropogenically induced subsidence. Present-day regional sea level changes appear to be caused primarily by natural climate variability. However, the imprint of anthropogenic effects on regional sea level-whether due to changes in the atmospheric forcing or to mass variations in the system-will grow with time as climate change progresses, and toward the end of the twenty-first century, regional sea level patterns will be a superposition of climate variability modes and natural and anthropogenically induced static sea level patterns. Attribution and predictions of ongoing and future sea level changes require an expanded and sustained climate observing system.

  14. Greenhouse warming and changes in sea level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oerlemans, J.

    1989-01-01

    It is likely that the anticipated warming due to the effect of increasing concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases will lead to a further and faster rise in world mean sea level. There are many processes in the climate system controlling sea level, but the most important

  15. Sea level rise in the Arctic Ocean

    OpenAIRE

    Proshutinsky, Andrey; Pavlov, Vladimir; Bourke, Robert H.

    2001-01-01

    The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2000GL012760 About 60 tide-gauge stations in the Kara, Laptev, East-Siberian and Chukchi Seas have recorded the sea level change from the 1950s through 1990s. Over this 40-year period, most of these stations show a significant sea level rise (SLR). In light of global change, this SLR could be a manifestation of warming in the Artic coupled with a decrease of sea ice extent, warming of Atlantic waters, changes in...

  16. Sea level trend and variability around the Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luu, Q. H.; Tkalich, P.; Tay, T. W.

    2014-06-01

    Peninsular Malaysia is bounded from the west by Malacca Strait and the Andaman Sea both connected to the Indian Ocean, and from the east by South China Sea being largest marginal sea in the Pacific Basin. Resulting sea level along Peninsular Malaysia coast is assumed to be governed by various regional phenomena associated with the adjacent parts of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. At annual scale, sea level anomalies (SLAs) are generated by the Asian monsoon; interannual sea level variability is determined by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD); while long-term sea level trend is related to global climate change. To quantify the relative impacts of these multi-scale phenomena on sea level trend and variability around the Peninsular Malaysia, long-term tide gauge record and satellite altimetry are used. During 1984-2011, relative sea level rise (SLR) rates in waters of Malacca Strait and eastern Peninsular Malaysia are found to be 2.4 ± 1.6 mm yr-1 and 2.7 ± 1.0 mm yr-1, respectively. Allowing for corresponding vertical land movements (VLM; 0.8 ± 2.6 mm yr-1 and 0.9 ± 2.2 mm yr-1), their absolute SLR rates are 3.2 ± 4.2 mm yr-1 and 3.6 ± 3.2 mm yr-1, respectively. For the common period 1993-2009, absolute SLR rates obtained from both tide gauge and satellite altimetry in Peninsular Malaysia are similar; and they are slightly higher than the global tendency. It further underlines that VLM should be taken into account to get better estimates of SLR observations. At interannual scale, ENSO affects sea level over the Malaysian coast in the range of ±5 cm with a very high correlation. Meanwhile, IOD modulates sea level anomalies mainly in the Malacca Strait in the range of ±2 cm with a high correlation coefficient. Interannual regional sea level drops are associated with El Niño events and positive phases of the IOD index; while the rises are correlated with La Niña episodes and the negative periods of the IOD index

  17. The Wadden Sea in transition - consequences of sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becherer, Johannes; Hofstede, Jacobus; Gräwe, Ulf; Purkiani, Kaveh; Schulz, Elisabeth; Burchard, Hans

    2018-01-01

    The impact of sea level rise (SLR) on the future morphological development of the Wadden Sea (North Sea) is investigated by means of extensive process-resolving numerical simulations. A new sediment and morphodynamic module was implemented in the well-established 3D circulation model GETM. A number of different validations are presented, ranging from an idealized 1D channel over a semi-idealized 2D Wadden Sea basin to a fully coupled realistic 40-year hindcast without morphological amplification of the Sylt-Rømøbight, a semi-enclosed subsystem of the Wadden Sea. Based on the results of the hindcast, four distinct future scenarios covering the period 2010-2100 are simulated. While these scenarios differ in the strength of SLR and wind forcing, they also account for an expected increase of tidal range over the coming century. The results of the future projections indicate a transition from a tidal-flat-dominated system toward a lagoon-like system, in which large fractions of the Sylt-Rømøbight will remain permanently covered by water. This has potentially dramatic implications for the unique ecosystem of the Wadden Sea. Although the simulations also predict an increased accumulation of sediment in the back-barrier basin, this accumulation is far too weak to compensate for the rise in mean sea level.

  18. Two centuries of mean Baltic Sea level variability - an overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hünicke, Birgit; Zorita, Eduardo; Madsen, Kristine S.; Johannson, Milla

    2015-04-01

    other atmospheric forcing factors is found to vary geographically. The annual cycle in Baltic sea-level displays, in general, higher values during winter and lower values during spring with an increase in the amplitude (winter-spring sea-level trend) 1800-2000. The magnitude of these increasing trends is found to be basin-wide uniform (except for the Skagerrak area). The precise mechanisms responsible for this have not been completely ascertained, but are very likely not exclusively of regional to local origin (e.g. due to wind-driven changes). Baltic absolute sea-level estimated from recent combined analysis of geodetic information (measurements and models) and tide gauge observations, show positive trends in the range of 1.3 to 1.8 mm/yr, depending on the spatial and temporal coverage of the considered datasets (1800-2000). These values lie within the range of recent estimates of global trends. Recent changes in linear (30yr) gliding trends of Baltic tide-gauge records (1800-2000) show generally increasing trends, but similar or even slightly higher than recent 30-year rates were observed around 1900 and 1950. All sites show a slight acceleration of the sea-level rate, but the large decadal variability around these positive trends hampers to establish its local statistical significance.

  19. Sea level change: a philosophical approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leinfelder, R.; Seyfried, H.

    1993-07-01

    The present Cenozoic era is an ‘icehouse’ episode characterized by a low sea level. Since the beginning of the industrial revolution, the human race has been emitting greenhouse gases, increasing the global atmospheric temperature, and causing a rise in sea level. If emissions continue to increase at the present rate, average global temperatures may rise by 1.5°C by the year 2050, accompanied by a rise of about 30 cm in sea level. However, the prediction of future climatic conditions and sea level is hampered by the difficulty in modelling the interactions between the lithosphere, kryosphere, biosphere and atmosphere; in addition, the buffering capacity of our planet is still poorly understood. As scientists cannot offer unambiguous answers to simple questions, sorcerer's apprentices fill in the gaps, presenting plans to save planet without inconveniencing us. The geological record can help us to learn about the regulation mechanisms of our planet, many of which are connected with or expressed as sea level changes. Global changes in sea level are either tectono-eustatic or glacioeustatic. Plate tectonic processes strongly control sea levels and climate in the long term. There is a strong feed-back mechanism between sea level and climate; both can influence and determine each other. Although high sea levels are a powerful climatic buffer, falling sea levels accelerate climatic accentuation, the growth of the polar ice caps and will hence amplify the drop in sea level. Important sources of fossil greenhouse gases are botanic CO2 production, CO2 released by volcanic activity, and water vapour. The latter is particularly important when the surface area of the sea increases during a rise in sea level (‘maritime greenhouse effect’). A ‘volcanogenic greenhouse effect’ (release of volcanogenic CO2) is possibly not equally important, as intense volcanic activity may take place both during icehouse episodes as well as during greenhouse episodes. The hydrosphere

  20. Hölder Scales of Sea Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Li

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The statistics of sea level is essential in the field of geosciences, ranging from ocean dynamics to climates. The fractal properties of sea level, such as long-range dependence (LRD or long memory, 1/f noise behavior, and self-similarity (SS, are known. However, the description of its multiscale behavior as well as local roughness with the Hölder exponent h(t from a view of multifractional Brownian motion (mBm is rarely reported, to the best of our knowledge. In this research, we will exhibit that there is the multiscale property of sea level based on h(ts of sea level data recorded by the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC at six stations in the Florida and Eastern Gulf of Mexico. The contributions of this paper are twofold as follows. (i Hölder exponent of sea level may not change with time considerably at small time scale, for example, daily time scale, but it varies significantly at large time scale, such as at monthly time scale. (ii The dispersion of the Hölder exponents of sea level may be different at different stations. This implies that the Hölder roughness of sea level may be spatial dependent.

  1. Sea level adaptation decisions under uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorarinsdottir, T. L.; Guttorp, P.; Drews, M.

    2017-01-01

    Sea level rise has serious consequences for harbor infrastructure, storm drains and sewer systems, and many other issues. Adapting to sea level rise requires comparing different possible adaptation strategies, comparing the cost of different actions (including no action), and assessing where...... and at what point in time the chosen strategy should be implemented. All these decisions must be made under considerable uncertainty—in the amount of sea level rise, in the cost and prioritization of adaptation actions, and in the implications of no action. Here we develop two illustrative examples...

  2. Climate Adaptation and Sea Level Rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA supports the development and maintenance of water utility infrastructure across the country. Included in this effort is helping the nation’s water utilities anticipate, plan for, and adapt to risks from flooding, sea level rise, and storm surge.

  3. Legacy HMSRP NWHI Sea Level Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Island elevation data use in publication by Baker JD, Littnan CL, Johnston DW. "2006. Potential effects of sea level rise on the terrestrial habitats of endangered...

  4. Mangrove dieback during fluctuating sea levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovelock, Catherine E; Feller, Ilka C; Reef, Ruth; Hickey, Sharyn; Ball, Marilyn C

    2017-05-10

    Recent evidence indicates that climate change and intensification of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has increased variation in sea level. Although widespread impacts on intertidal ecosystems are anticipated to arise from the sea level seesaw associated with climate change, none have yet been demonstrated. Intertidal ecosystems, including mangrove forests are among those ecosystems that are highly vulnerable to sea level rise, but they may also be vulnerable to sea level variability and extreme low sea level events. During 16 years of monitoring of a mangrove forest in Mangrove Bay in north Western Australia, we documented two forest dieback events, the most recent one being coincident with the large-scale dieback of mangroves in the Gulf of Carpentaria in northern Australia. Diebacks in Mangrove Bay were coincident with periods of very low sea level, which were associated with increased soil salinization of 20-30% above pre-event levels, leading to canopy loss, reduced Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and reduced recruitment. Our study indicates that an intensification of ENSO will have negative effects on some mangrove forests in parts of the Indo-Pacific that will exacerbate other pressures.

  5. Sea level pressure climatology in black sea region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sayed Mohammad Hosseini

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available In the present study, to achieve a comprehensive view of pressure conditions in the Black Sea region, sea level pressure data in Reanalysis II database in National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR were used. The data temporal resolution is daily and the spatial resolution is 2.5×2.5 degrees of arc. The investigated framework covers the areas between -30-70 degrees east longitude and 20-70 degrees north latitude and has dimensions equal 41×21 pixels consisting of 861 pixels. The studied period of time is 33-year (1979 to 2012 and includes 12419 days and 861 spatial pixels. Therefore, sea level pressure data matrix is 12419×861, which has 12419 temporal pixels and 861 spatial ones. In other words, the arrangement of the data is S-shaped. The rows of the matrix represent time while columns represent space. At the end, using the cluster analysis, six sea level pressure circulation patterns based on the spatial - temporal features were obtained: Red Sea trough is fall pattern; Iraq trough is spring pattern; Persian Gulf trough is transitional pattern; Persian Gulf deep trough is summer pattern; Caucasian high pressure is fall - winter pattern and the Caucasian Strong high pressure is winter pattern. In most of these patterns, intensive allobaric conditions can be observed in the troughs and ridges.

  6. Changes in extreme sea-levels in the Baltic Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreia Ribeiro

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available In a climate change context, changes in extreme sea-levels rather than changes in the mean are of particular interest from the coastal protection point of view. In this work, extreme sea-levels in the Baltic Sea are investigated based on daily tide gauge records for the period 1916–2005 using the annual block maxima approach. Extreme events are analysed based on the generalised extreme value distribution considering both stationary and time-varying models. The likelihood ratio test is applied to select between stationary and non-stationary models for the maxima and return values are estimated from the final model. As an independent and complementary approach, quantile regression is applied for comparison with the results from the extreme value approach. The rates of change in the uppermost quantiles are in general consistent and most pronounced for the northernmost stations.

  7. Relative and absolute level populations in beam-foil--excited neutral helium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davidson, J.

    1975-01-01

    Relative and absolute populations of 19 levels in beam-foil--excited neutral helium at 0.275 MeV have been measured. The singlet angular-momentum sequences show dependences on principal quantum number consistent with n -3 , but the triplet sequences do not. Singlet and triplet angular-momentum sequences show similar dependences on level excitation energy. Excitation functions for six representative levels were measured in the range 0.160 to 0.500 MeV. The absolute level populations increase with energy, whereas the neutral fraction of the beam decreases with energy. Further, the P angular-momentum levels are found to be overpopulated with respect to the S and D levels. The overpopulation decreases with increasing principal quantum number

  8. Relative and absolute level populations in beam-foil-excited neutral helium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, J.

    1975-01-01

    Relative and absolute populations of 19 levels in beam-foil-excited neutral helium at 0.275 MeV have been measured. The singlet angular-momentum sequences show dependences on principal quantum number consistent with n to the -3rd power, but the triplet sequences do not. Singlet and triplet angular-momentum sequences show similar dependences on level excitation energy. Excitation functions for six representative levels were measured in the range from 0.160 to 0.500 MeV. The absolute level populations increase with energy, whereas the neutral fraction of the beam decreases with energy. Further, the P angular-momentum levels are found to be overpopulated with respect to the S and D levels. The overpopulation decreases with increasing principal quantum number.

  9. Sea level ~400 000 years ago (MIS 11: analogue for present and future sea-level?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Q. Bowen

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Comparison of the sea-level today with that of 400 000 years ago (MIS 11, when the Earth's orbital characteristics were similar may provide, under conditions of natural variability, indications of future sea-level during the present interglacial. Then, as now, orbital eccentricity was low and precession dampened. Evidence for MIS 11 sea-level occurs on uplifting coastlines where shorelines with geochronological ages have been preserved. The sea-level term and the uplift term may be separated with an "uplift correction" formula. This discovers the original sea-level at which the now uplifted shoreline was fashioned. Estimates are based on average uplift rates of the "last interglacial" sea-level (MIS 5.5 using a range of estimates for sea-level and age at that time at different locations. These, with varying secular tectonic regimes in different ocean basins, provide a band of estimates for the MIS 11 sea-level. They do not support the hypothesis of an MIS 11 sea-level at ~20 m, and instead show that it was closer to its present level.

  10. Vulnerability of marginal seas to sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomis, Damia; Jordà, Gabriel

    2017-04-01

    Sea level rise (SLR) is a serious thread for coastal areas and has a potential negative impact on society and economy. SLR can lead for instance to land loss, beach reduction, increase of the damage of marine storms on coastal infrastructures and to the salinization of underground water streams. It is well acknowledged that future SLR will be inhomogeneous across the globe, with regional differences of up to 100% with respect to global mean sea level (GMSL). Several studies have addressed the projections of SLR at regional scale, but most of them are based on global climate models (GCMs) that have a relatively coarse spatial resolution (>1°). In marginal seas this has proven to be a strong limitation, as their particular configurations require spatial resolutions that are not reachable by present GCMs. A paradigmatic case is the Mediterranean Sea, connected to the global ocean through the Strait of Gibraltar, a narrow passage of 14 km width. The functioning of the Mediterranean Sea involves a variety of processes including an overturning circulation, small-scale convection and a rich mesoscale field. Moreover, the long-term evolution of Mediterranean sea level has been significantly different from the global mean during the last decades. The observations of present climate and the projections for the next decades have lead some authors to hypothesize that the particular characteristics of the basin could allow Mediterranean mean sea level to evolve differently from the global mean. Assessing this point is essential to undertake proper adaptation strategies for the largely populated Mediterranean coastal areas. In this work we apply a new approach that combines regional and global projections to analyse future SLR. In a first step we focus on the quantification of the expected departures of future Mediterranean sea level from GMSL evolution and on the contribution of different processes to these departures. As a result we find that, in spite of its particularities

  11. Solution notches, earthquakes, and sea level, Haiti

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiffman, C. R.; Mildor, B. S.; Bilham, R. G.

    2010-12-01

    Shortly after the 12 January 2010 Haiti earthquake, we installed an array of five tide gauges to determine sea level and its variability in the region of uplifted corals on the coast SW of Leogane, Haiti, that had been uplift ≤30 cm during the earthquake. Each gauge consists of a pressure transducer bolted 50-80 cm below mean sea level, which samples the difference between atmospheric pressure and sea pressure every 10 minutes. The data are transmitted via the Iridium satellite and are publically available with a latency of 10 minutes to 2 hours. The measurements reveal a maximum tidal range of ≈50 cm with 2-4 week oscillations in mean sea level of several cm. Sea slope, revealed by differences between adjacent gauges, varies 2-5 cm per 10 km at periods of 2-5 weeks, which imposes a disappointing limit to the utility of the gauges in estimating post seismic vertical motions. A parallel study of the form and elevation of coastal notches and mushroom rocks (rocks notched on all sides, hence forming a mushroom shape), along the coast west of Petit Goave suggests that these notches may provide an uplift history of the region over the past several hundreds of years. Notch sections in two areas were contoured, digitized, and compared to mean sea level. The notches mimic the histogram of sea level, suggesting that they are formed by dissolution by acidic surface waters. Notches formed two distinct levels, one approximately 58 cm above mean sea level, and the other approximately 157 cm above mean sea level. Several landslide blocks fell into the sea during the 2010 earthquake, and we anticipate these are destined for conversion to future mushroom rocks. Surfaces have been prepared on these blocks to study the rate of notch formation in situ, and samples are being subjected to acid corrosion in laboratory conditions, with the hope that the depth of notches may provide an estimate of the time of fall of previous rocks to help constrain the earthquake history of this area

  12. Bipolar seesaw control on last interglacial sea level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marino, G; Rohling, E J; Rodríguez-Sanz, L; Grant, K M; Heslop, D; Roberts, A P; Stanford, J D; Yu, J

    2015-06-11

    Our current understanding of ocean-atmosphere-cryosphere interactions at ice-age terminations relies largely on assessments of the most recent (last) glacial-interglacial transition, Termination I (T-I). But the extent to which T-I is representative of previous terminations remains unclear. Testing the consistency of termination processes requires comparison of time series of critical climate parameters with detailed absolute and relative age control. However, such age control has been lacking for even the penultimate glacial termination (T-II), which culminated in a sea-level highstand during the last interglacial period that was several metres above present. Here we show that Heinrich Stadial 11 (HS11), a prominent North Atlantic cold episode, occurred between 135 ± 1 and 130 ± 2 thousand years ago and was linked with rapid sea-level rise during T-II. Our conclusions are based on new and existing data for T-II and the last interglacial that we collate onto a single, radiometrically constrained chronology. The HS11 cold episode punctuated T-II and coincided directly with a major deglacial meltwater pulse, which predominantly entered the North Atlantic Ocean and accounted for about 70 per cent of the glacial-interglacial sea-level rise. We conclude that, possibly in response to stronger insolation and CO2 forcing earlier in T-II, the relationship between climate and ice-volume changes differed fundamentally from that of T-I. In T-I, the major sea-level rise clearly post-dates Heinrich Stadial 1. We also find that HS11 coincided with sustained Antarctic warming, probably through a bipolar seesaw temperature response, and propose that this heat gain at high southern latitudes promoted Antarctic ice-sheet melting that fuelled the last interglacial sea-level peak.

  13. Recent Arctic Sea Level Variations from Satellites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Piccioni, Gaia

    2016-01-01

    Sea level monitoring in the Arctic region has always been an extreme challenge for remote sensing, and in particular for satellite altimetry. Despite more than two decades of observations, altimetry is still limited in the inner Arctic Ocean. We have developed an updated version of the Danish...... Technical University's (DTU) Arctic Ocean altimetric sea level timeseries starting in 1993 and now extended up to 2015 with CryoSat-2 data. The time-series covers a total of 23 years, which allows higher accuracy in sea level trend determination. The record shows a sea level trend of 2.2 ± 1.1 mm....../y for the region between 66°N and 82°N. In particular, a local increase of 15 mm/y is found in correspondence to the Beaufort Gyre. An early estimate of the mean sea level trend budget closure in the Arctic for the period 2005–2015 was derived by using the Equivalent Water Heights obtained from GRACE Tellus...

  14. Sea Level Rise in Santa Clara County

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milesi, Cristina

    2005-01-01

    Presentation by Cristina Milesi, First Author, NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA at the "Meeting the Challenge of Sea Level Rise in Santa Clara County" on June 19, 2005 Santa Clara County, bordering with the southern portion of the San Francisco Bay, is highly vulnerable to flooding and to sea level rise (SLR). In this presentation, the latest sea level rise projections for the San Francisco Bay will be discussed in the context of extreme water height frequency and extent of flooding vulnerability. I will also present preliminary estimations of levee requirements and possible mitigation through tidal restoration of existing salt ponds. The examples will draw mainly from the work done by the NASA Climate Adaptation Science Investigators at NASA Ames.

  15. Rising sea levels and small island states

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leatherman, S.P.

    1994-01-01

    A review is given of the problems small island nations face with respect to sea level rise caused by global warming. Many small island nations are very vulnerable to sea level rise. Particularly at risk are coral reef atolls, which are generally quite small, lie within three metres of current sea levels, and have no land at higher elevations to relocate populations and economic activity. Volcanic islands in the Pacific have high ground, but it is largely rugged, high relief and soil-poor. The most vulnerable islands are those that consist entirely of atolls and reef islands, such as Kirabai, Maldives, Tokelau and Tuvalu. Small island states, which by themselves have little power or influence in world affairs, have banded together to form the Strategic Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS). This alliance had grown to include 42 states by the time of the 1992 U.N. Earth Summit. Although the greenhouse effect is mainly caused by industrial nations, developing countries will suffer the most from it. Choices of response strategy will depend on environmental, economic and social factors. Most small island nations do not have the resources to fight sea level rise in the way that the Dutch have. Retreat can occur as a gradual process or as catastrophic abandonment. Prohibiting construction close to the water's edge is a good approach. Sea level histories for each island state should be compiled and updated, island geomorphology and settlement patterns should be surveyed to determine risk areas, storm regimes should be determined, and information on coastal impacts of sea level rise should be disseminated to the public

  16. The Sea Level Fingerprints of Global Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitrovica, J. X.; Hay, C.; Kopp, R. E., III; Morrow, E.

    2014-12-01

    It may be difficult to persuade those living in northern Europe that the sea level changes that their coastal communities face depends less on the total melting of polar ice sheets and glaciers than on the individual contributions to this total. In particular, melting of a specific ice sheet or mountain glacier drives deformational, gravitational and rotational perturbations to the Earth system that are manifest in a unique geometry, or fingerprint, of global sea level change. For example, melting from the Greenland Ice Sheet equivalent to 1 mm/yr of global mean sea level (GMSL) rise will lead to sea level rise of ~0 mm/yr in Dublin, ~0.2 mm/yr in Amsterdam, ~0.4 mm/yr in Boston and ~1.2 mm/yr in Cape Town. In contrast, if the same volume of ice melted from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, all of the above sites would experience a sea level rise in the range 1.1-1.2 mm/yr. These fingerprints of modern ice melting, together with ocean thermal expansion and dynamic effects, and the ongoing signal from glacial isostatic adjustment in response to the last ice age, combine to produce a sea level field with significant geographic variability. In this talk I will highlight an analysis of global tide gauge records that takes full advantage of this variability to estimate both GMSL and the sources of meltwater over the last century, and to project GMSL to the end of the current century.

  17. Recent Arctic sea level variations from satellites

    OpenAIRE

    Ole Baltazar Andersen; Gaia ePiccioni

    2016-01-01

    Sea level monitoring in the Arctic region has always been an extreme challenge for remote sensing, and in particular for satellite altimetry. Despite more than two decades of observations, altimetry is still limited in the inner Arctic Ocean. We have developed an updated version of the Danish Technical University's (DTU) Arctic Ocean altimetric sea level timeseries starting in 1993 and now extended up to 2015 with CryoSat-2 data. The time-series covers a total of 23 years, which allows higher...

  18. Monthly variations of the Caspian sea level and solar activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanchuk, P. R.; Pasechnik, M. N.

    The connection between 11-year cycle of solar activity and the Caspian sea level is investigated. Seasonal changes of the Caspian sea level and annual variations of the sea level with variations of solar activity are studied. The results of the verifications of the sea level forecasts obtained with application of the rules discovered by the authors are given.

  19. Sea level monitoring in Africa | Woodworth | African Journal of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Information Network for Africa (ODINAfrica) programme are described and a survey of currently existing and planned sea level stations in Africa is presented, together with information on where data for existing stations may be found. Keywords: sea level data applications, sea level data telemetry, sea level networks. African ...

  20. Rabbit-core based sea-level logger using semiconductor transducer

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Pereira, A.M.; Desai, R.G.P.; Desa, E.; Joseph, A.; VijayKumar, K.; Methar, A.; Shirgaonkar, A.; Damodaran, V.

    A sea level logger based on Rabbit-Core micro-controller module has been designed and tested. The transducer used with the logger is a temperature-compensated semiconductor transducer, providing absolute fluid pressure in RS-485 format. The choice...

  1. Sea Level Rise National Coastal Property Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    The impact of sea level rise on coastal properties depends critically on the human response to the threat, which in turn depends on several factors, including the immediacy of the risk, the magnitude of property value at risk, options for adapting to the threat and the cost of th...

  2. Tides, surges and mean sea-level

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Pugh, D. T

    1987-01-01

    .... Interest in mean sea-level changes has recently been focused on the possibility of significant increases over the coming century as a result of global warming. Examples of applications from North America, Europe and other parts of the world are included.

  3. Analysis of Sea Level Rise in Action

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, K. M.; Huang, T.; Quach, N. T.; Boening, C.

    2016-12-01

    NASA's Sea Level Change Portal provides scientists and the general public with "one-stop" source for current sea level change information and data. Sea Level Rise research is a multidisciplinary research and in order to understand its causes, scientists must be able to access different measurements and to be able to compare them. The portal includes an interactive tool, called the Data Analysis Tool (DAT), for accessing, visualizing, and analyzing observations and models relevant to the study of Sea Level Rise. Using NEXUS, an open source, big data analytic technology developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, the DAT is able provide user on-the-fly data analysis on all relevant parameters. DAT is composed of three major components: A dedicated instance of OnEarth (a WMTS service), NEXUS deep data analytic platform, and the JPL Common Mapping Client (CMC) for web browser based user interface (UI). Utilizing the global imagery, a user is capable of browsing the data in a visual manner and isolate areas of interest for further study. The interfaces "Analysis" tool provides tools for area or point selection, single and/or comparative dataset selection, and a range of options, algorithms, and plotting. This analysis component utilizes the Nexus cloud computing platform to provide on-demand processing of the data within the user-selected parameters and immediate display of the results. A RESTful web API is exposed for users comfortable with other interfaces and who may want to take advantage of the cloud computing capabilities. This talk discuss how DAT enables on-the-fly sea level research. The talk will introduce the DAT with an end-to-end tour of the tool with exploration and animating of available imagery, a demonstration of comparative analysis and plotting, and how to share and export data along with images for use in publications/presentations. The session will cover what kind of data is available, what kind of analysis is possible, and what are the outputs.

  4. Monitoring sea level and sea surface temperature trends from ERS satellites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Knudsen, Per; Beckley, B.

    2002-01-01

    Data from the two ESA satellites ERS-1 and ERS-2 are used in global and regional analysis of sea level and sea surface temperature trends over the last, 7.8 years. T he ERS satellites and in the future the ENVISAT satellite provide unique opportunity for monitoring both changes in sea level and sea...... surface temperature as these satellites are equipped with an altimeter to measure sea level height as well as an along track scanning radiometer (ATSR) to measure the sea surface temperature. Consistent increase in both sea level and sea surface temperatures are found in most parts of the Atlantic Ocean...

  5. Annotated Bibliography of Relative Sea Level Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-09-01

    effects of increasing C02 on vegetation. In controlled environment experiments, higher C02 levels cause the stomata of plants to close down, decreasing...Changes in Maine," Nummedal, D., Pilkey, O.H., and Howard, J.D., eds., Sea-Level Fluctuations and Coastal Evolution , Special -Publication No. 41...and Coastal Evolution , Special Publication No. 41, Society of Economic Paleontologists and Mineralogists, Tulsa, OK, pp 71-86. Eigenanalysis of tide

  6. A NOAA/NOS Sea Level Advisory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweet, W.

    2011-12-01

    In order for coastal communities to realize current impacts and become resilient to future changes, sea level advisories/bulletins are necessary that systematically monitor and document non-tidal anomalies (residuals) and flood-watch (elevation) conditions. The need became apparent after an exceptional sea level anomaly along the U.S. East Coast in June - July of 2009 when higher than normal sea levels coincided with a perigean-spring tide and flooded many coastal regions. The event spurred numerous public inquiries to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS) from coastal communities concerned because of the lack of any coastal storm signatures normally associated with such an anomaly. A subsequent NOAA report provided insight into some of the mechanisms involved in the event and methods for tracking their reoccurrences. NOAA/CO-OPS is the U.S. authority responsible for defining sea level datums and tracking their relative changes in support of marine navigation and national and state land-use boundaries. These efforts are supported by the National Water Level Observation Network (NWLON), whose long-term and widespread observations largely define a total water level measurement impacting a coastal community. NWLON time series provide estimates of local relative sea level trends, a product increasingly utilized by various stakeholders planning for the future. NWLON data also capture significant short-term changes and conveyance of high-water variations (from surge to seasonal scale) provides invaluable insight into inundation patterns ultimately needed for a more comprehensive planning guide. A NOAA/CO-OPS Sea Level Advisory Project will enhance high-water monitoring capabilities by: - Automatically detecting sea level anomalies and flood-watch occurrences - Seasonally calibrating the anomaly thresholds to a locality in terms of flood potential - Alerting for near

  7. Sea level rise and the geoid: factor analysis approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexey Sadovski

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Sea levels are rising around the world, and this is a particular concern along most of the coasts of the United States. A 1989 EPA report shows that sea levels rose 5-6 inches more than the global average along the Mid-Atlantic and Gulf Coasts in the last century. The main reason for this is coastal land subsidence. This sea level rise is considered more as relative sea level rise than global sea level rise. Thus, instead of studying sea level rise globally, this paper describes a statistical approach by using factor analysis of regional sea level rates of change. Unlike physical models and semi-empirical models that attempt to approach how much and how fast sea levels are changing, this methodology allows for a discussion of the factor(s that statistically affects sea level rates of change, and seeks patterns to explain spatial correlations.

  8. A 6,700 years sea-level record based on French Polynesian coral reefs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallmann, Nadine; Camoin, Gilbert; Eisenhauer, Anton; Vella, Claude; Samankassou, Elias; Botella, Albéric; Milne, Glenn; Fietzke, Jan; Dussouillez, Philippe

    2015-04-01

    Sea-level change during the Mid- to Late Holocene has a similar amplitude to the sea-level rise that is likely to occur before the end of the 21st century providing a unique opportunity to study the coastal response to sea-level change and to reveal an important baseline of natural climate variability prior to the industrial revolution. Mid- to Late Holocene relative sea-level change in French Polynesia was reconstructed using coral reef records from ten islands, which represent ideal settings for accurate sea-level studies because: 1) they can be regarded as tectonically stable during the relevant period (slow subsidence), 2) they are located far from former ice sheets (far-field), 3) they are characterized by a low tidal amplitude, and 4) they cover a wide range of latitudes which produces significantly improved constraints on GIA (Glacial Isostatic Adjustment) model parameters. Absolute U/Th dating of in situ coral colonies and their accurate positioning via GPS RTK (Real Time Kinematic) measurements is crucial for an accurate reconstruction of sea-level change. We focus mainly on the analysis of coral microatolls, which are sensitive low-tide recorders, as their vertical accretion is limited by the mean low water springs level. Growth pattern analysis allows the reconstruction of low-amplitude, high-frequency sea-level changes on centennial to sub-decadal time scales. A sea-level rise of less than 1 m is recorded between 6 and 3-3.5 ka, and is followed by a gradual fall in sea level that started around 2.5 ka and persisted until the past few centuries. The reconstructed sea-level curve therefore extends the Tahiti sea-level curve [Deschamps et al., 2012, Nature, 483, 559-564], and is in good agreement with a geophysical model tuned to fit far-field deglacial records [Bassett et al., 2005, Science, 309, 925-928].

  9. Attempt of absolute dating and reconstitutions of climate changes in the Caribbean Sea: multi-proxy approaches to planktonic foraminifera and fine aragonitic fraction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sepulcre, S.

    2008-06-01

    Absolute dating of climate archives is essential to better understand climate mechanisms. A marine sediment core from the Caribbean Sea enriched in fine-grained aragonite (suitable to U/Th dating) has been studied for both planktonic foraminifera tests (≥150 μm) and fine fraction (≤63 μm) over the last one million years using mineralogical and geochemical approaches. This study aims at i) examining lead/lag of δ 18 O and radiometric ages of the different-size fractions and ii) reconstructing paleo-environment in the area. The fine fraction mineralogy is strongly influenced by glacial-interglacial sea level changes. The offset of δ 18 O and 14 C ages between the fine and foraminifera fractions during Termination I is partly explained by a bioturbation model. Attempt of U/Th dating to Termination II and V reveals that the fine fraction contains non-radiogenic Th, which needs further analytical development. Reconstructed surface water δ 18 O changes suggest a decrease in surface water salinity at the end of Mid-Pleistocene Transition related to ITCZ position over the Caribbean Sea. (author)

  10. Coastal subsidence and relative sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingebritsen, Steven E.; Galloway, Devin L.

    2014-01-01

    Subsurface fluid-pressure declines caused by pumping of groundwater or hydrocarbons can lead to aquifer-system compaction and consequent land subsidence. This subsidence can be rapid, as much as 30 cm per year in some instances, and large, totaling more than 13 m in extreme examples. Thus anthropogenic subsidence may be the dominant contributor to relative sea-level rise in coastal environments where subsurface fluids are heavily exploited. Maximum observed rates of human-induced subsidence greatly exceed the rates of natural subsidence of unconsolidated sediments (~0.1–1 cm yr−1) and the estimated rates of ongoing global sea-level rise (~0.3 cm yr−1).

  11. Rising Sea Levels: Truth or Scare?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peacock, Alan

    2007-01-01

    When "ITV News" ran an item that shocked the author, about rising sea levels that will have caused the entire evacuation of the islands by the end of this year, he began to wonder whether the Pacific Ocean is really rising as fast as this. The media reporting of such things can be a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it brought to the author's…

  12. An Inverse Relative Age Effect in Male Alpine Skiers at the Absolute Top Level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjerke, Øyvind; Pedersen, Arve Vorland; Aune, Tore K; Lorås, Håvard

    2017-01-01

    The Relative Age Effect (RAE) can be described as the advantage of being born early after a certain cut-off date within a group of selection. The effect has been found across a wide range of sports and is particularly evident in pre-elite sports and team sports with a high selection pressure. At the absolute top level in team elite sports, the advantage of being relatively older has been reported to disappear, and even reverse, so that the relatively younger athletes are advantaged. In order to further examine such a reversal of the RAE, we investigated the performance of the overall top 50 skiers each year in the alpine World Cup, over a period of 20 years, among men ( N = 234) and women ( N = 235). The data indicated that the relatively younger male athletes at the absolute top level had accumulated, on average, more World Cup points compared to the relatively older skiers. No such effect was observed among the female skiers. This finding suggest the existence of a reversed relative age effect in male elite alpine skiing.

  13. An Inverse Relative Age Effect in Male Alpine Skiers at the Absolute Top Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Øyvind Bjerke

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The Relative Age Effect (RAE can be described as the advantage of being born early after a certain cut-off date within a group of selection. The effect has been found across a wide range of sports and is particularly evident in pre-elite sports and team sports with a high selection pressure. At the absolute top level in team elite sports, the advantage of being relatively older has been reported to disappear, and even reverse, so that the relatively younger athletes are advantaged. In order to further examine such a reversal of the RAE, we investigated the performance of the overall top 50 skiers each year in the alpine World Cup, over a period of 20 years, among men (N = 234 and women (N = 235. The data indicated that the relatively younger male athletes at the absolute top level had accumulated, on average, more World Cup points compared to the relatively older skiers. No such effect was observed among the female skiers. This finding suggest the existence of a reversed relative age effect in male elite alpine skiing.

  14. Deep Ocean Contribution to Sea Level Rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, L.; Sun, W.; Tang, H.; Wang, Q.

    2017-12-01

    The ocean temperature and salinity change in the upper 2000m can be detected by Argo floats, so we can know the steric height change of the ocean. But the ocean layers above 2000m represent only 50% of the total ocean volume. Although the temperature and salinity change are small compared to the upper ocean, the deep ocean contribution to sea level might be significant because of its large volume. There has been some research on the deep ocean rely on the very sparse situ observation and are limited to decadal and longer-term rates of change. The available observational data in the deep ocean are too spares to determine the temporal variability, and the long-term changes may have a bias. We will use the Argo date and combine the situ data and topographic data to estimate the temperature and salinity of the sea water below 2000m, so we can obtain a monthly data. We will analyze the seasonal and annual change of the steric height change due to the deep ocean between 2005 and 2016. And we will evaluate the result combination the present-day satellite and in situ observing systems. The deep ocean contribution can be inferred indirectly as the difference between the altimetry minus GRACE and Argo-based steric sea level.

  15. THE INEXPENSIVE DEVICE FOR SEA LEVEL MEASUREMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Annunziato

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available A new mareograph device has been designed at the Joint Research Centre (JRC of the European Commission (EC in order improve the sea level network in use for the Tsunami Hazard monitoring in the Mediterranean Sea and in the North Atlantic area (NEAMTWS area of UNESCO. The instrument has the characteristic to be cheap and very effective but its reliability, duration and quality need to be determined and qualified. For this reason a number of experimental campaigns are being conducted, whose first results are presented here. In collaboration with the UNESCO/IOC (Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, responsible of the definition of the Tsunami Warning System of this geographical area, a set of 20 devices has been offered by JRC for a period of 1 year of testing of the devices; the surveys for the installation of the devices is under way and the installation should be completed by the end of 2015.

  16. Sea Levels Online: Sea Level Variations of the United States Derived from National Water Level Observation Network Stations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Water level records are a combination of the fluctuations of the ocean and the vertical land motion at the location of the station. Monthly mean sea level (MSL)...

  17. Measurements of sea level off Tikkavanipalem - Coast India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Joseph, A.; Desai, R.G.P.; Peshwe, V.B.; Desa, E.; VijayKumar, K.; Desa, E.S.; Mehra, P.; Nagvekar, S.

    Sea level and meteorological measurements have been made, off Tikkavanipalem coast in Andhra Pradesh, India in 1997-98. Sea level measurements were made in four temporal segments of one-month duration each during a one-year period...

  18. MIS 5e relative sea level indicators : new methodologies to sustain the quantitative estimate of past sea level changes

    OpenAIRE

    Lorscheid, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    During the Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS) 5e global sea level was 6-9 m higher than today. The only direct observations of this sea level are paleo relative sea-level (RSL) indicators. Their relationship to sea level is called the indicative meaning and is quantified by the reference water level and the indicative range. In this thesis, some of the problems around the determination of the indicative meaning, precise elevation measurements and structured reporting of databases are addressed. In t...

  19. Estimating sea-level allowances for Atlantic Canada under conditions of uncertain sea-level rise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Greenan

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper documents the methodology of computing sea-level rise allowances for Atlantic Canada in the 21st century under conditions of uncertain sea-level rise. The sea-level rise allowances are defined as the amount by which an asset needs to be raised in order to maintain the same likelihood of future flooding events as that site has experienced in the recent past. The allowances are determined by combination of the statistics of present tides and storm surges (storm tides and the regional projections of sea-level rise and associated uncertainty. Tide-gauge data for nine sites from the Canadian Atlantic coast are used to derive the scale parameters of present sea-level extremes using the Gumbel distribution function. The allowances in the 21st century, with respect to the year 1990, were computed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC A1FI emission scenario. For Atlantic Canada, the allowances are regionally variable and, for the period 1990–2050, range between –13 and 38 cm while, for the period 1990–2100, they range between 7 and 108 cm. The negative allowances in the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence region are caused by land uplift due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA.

  20. Estimating sea-level allowances for Atlantic Canada under conditions of uncertain sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenan, B.; Zhai, L.; Hunter, J.; James, T. S.; Han, G.

    2015-03-01

    This paper documents the methodology of computing sea-level rise allowances for Atlantic Canada in the 21st century under conditions of uncertain sea-level rise. The sea-level rise allowances are defined as the amount by which an asset needs to be raised in order to maintain the same likelihood of future flooding events as that site has experienced in the recent past. The allowances are determined by combination of the statistics of present tides and storm surges (storm tides) and the regional projections of sea-level rise and associated uncertainty. Tide-gauge data for nine sites from the Canadian Atlantic coast are used to derive the scale parameters of present sea-level extremes using the Gumbel distribution function. The allowances in the 21st century, with respect to the year 1990, were computed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1FI emission scenario. For Atlantic Canada, the allowances are regionally variable and, for the period 1990-2050, range between -13 and 38 cm while, for the period 1990-2100, they range between 7 and 108 cm. The negative allowances in the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence region are caused by land uplift due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA).

  1. Economic impacts of climate change in Europe: sea level rise

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bosello, F.; Nicholis, R.J.; Richards, J.; Roson, R.; Tol, R.S.J.

    2012-01-01

    This paper uses two models to examine the direct and indirect costs of sea-level rise for Europe for a range of sea-level rise scenarios for the 2020s and 2080s: (1) the DIVA model to estimate the physical impacts of sea-level rise and the direct economic cost, including adaptation, and (2) the

  2. New constraints on MIS 7 and 5 relative sea-level at Bermuda: a speleothem approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wainer, Karine; Henderson, Gideon; Mason, Andrew; Thomas, Alexander; Williams, Bruce; Rowe, Mark; van Hengstum, Peter; Chandler, Robert

    2014-05-01

    It is now widely accepted that a sea-level rise is associated with global warming [1]. However, its rate, and the height it might reach by the end of the century remain poorly constrained. This study aims to provide better information and precision on the rates and magnitudes of past sea-level change, for periods when sea-level is close to its modern value, using speleothems from Bermudian caves. Speleothems interrupt their growth when they are submerged by sea-water, so U-Th dating periods of growth in coastal sites allows the reconstruction of past sea-level variation versus absolute time [e.g. 2,3,4]. We will present new MC-ICP-MS U-Th ages, trace elements and isotopic data from a set of speleothems (stalagmites, stalactites, flowstones) collected from -14 to +12 m versus modern sea level from several caves in this northern Atlantic archipelago. Relative sea-level (RSL) at Bermuda is of particular interest because it is at a distance from northern hemisphere ice sheets where the isostatic response to ice-unloading is uncertain. RSL reconstruction therefore provides both an indicates of possible rates of sea level change, and a test for glacial-isostatic-adjustment (GIA) models. We will present new relative sea level data for late MIS7, and the different highstands of MIS5. The RSL at Bermuda for these episodes appears to be higher than present. For MIS5a, this is significantly distinct from what is expected from the eustatic sea level. These results will be considered in the context of previous assessments of eustatic change, and of GIA models. [1] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report, Cambridge Univ. Press. [2] Harmon et al. (1981) Nature 289, 357-360. [3] Richards et al. (1994) Nature 367, 481-483. [4] Bard (2002) EPSL 196, 135-146.

  3. Absolute Transition Probabilities from the 453.1 keV Level in {sup 183}W

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Malmskog, S.G.

    1966-10-15

    The half life of the 453.1 keV level in {sup 183}W has been measured by the delayed coincidence method to 18.4 {+-} 0.5 nsec. This determines twelve absolute M1 and E2 transition probabilities, out of which nine are K-forbidden. All transition probabilities are compared with the single particle estimate. The three K-allowed E2, {delta}K = 2 transition rates to the 1/2{sup -} (510) rotational band are furthermore compared with the Nilsson model. An attempt to give a quantitative explanation of the observed transition rates has been made by including the effects from admixtures into the single particle wave functions.

  4. Absolute Transition Probabilities from the 453.1 keV Level in 183W

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malmskog, S.G.

    1966-10-01

    The half life of the 453.1 keV level in 183 W has been measured by the delayed coincidence method to 18.4 ± 0.5 nsec. This determines twelve absolute M1 and E2 transition probabilities, out of which nine are K-forbidden. All transition probabilities are compared with the single particle estimate. The three K-allowed E2, ΔK = 2 transition rates to the 1/2 - (510) rotational band are furthermore compared with the Nilsson model. An attempt to give a quantitative explanation of the observed transition rates has been made by including the effects from admixtures into the single particle wave functions

  5. Sea Level Trend and Variability in the Straits of Singapore and Malacca

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luu, Q.; Tkalich, P.

    2013-12-01

    of -0.7 (in correspondence with the Multivariate ENSO Index). The IOD modulates interannual sea level variability only in the Malacca Strait in the range of ×3 cm with a correlation coefficient of -0.6 (with respect to the Dipole Mode Index). At annual scale, SLAs in the SSM are mainly monsoon-driven; of the order of 20 cm. Mean sea level in the Singapore Strait reach the peak during northeast monsoon and trough during southwest monsoon; while these in the Malacca Strait are highest at middle of both monsoons and lowest during their transitional monsoonal seasons. Global and regional signals are quantitatively captured in the SSM. In comparison with the global sea level trends, SSM sea level rise are larger for recent decades 1984-2009. Taking into account the rough estimate of land subsidence rates in Singapore (2006-2011) and Peninsular Malaysia (1994-2004), the trend of absolute sea level rise in SSM follows regional tendency. At interannual scale, ENSO modulates sea level variabilities in the entire SSM region, while IOD affects the Malacca Strait only. At annual scale, sea level responds differently to the Asian monsoon: quasi-periodic cycles are observed twice a year in the Malacca Strait, but once a year in the Singapore Strait. Such behavior implies that the narrow channel constriction between the Singapore and Malacca Straits may be a reason of different variability of sea level in the domains.

  6. Assessment of the Absolute Excitatory Level of the Retina by Flicker ERG.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanimoto, Naoyuki; Seeliger, Mathias W

    2018-01-01

    Electroretinography (ERG) is important for functional diagnostics of the retina. Types of information about retinal function obtainable by ERG differ depending on recording conditions, e.g., a combination of light stimulus and adaptation. In terms of stimulation, single-flash and flicker stimuli are frequently used because response properties have been well investigated, allowing an assessment of fundamental retinal functionality; for example, how photoreceptors and bipolar cells, including signal transmission between them, are affected under pathological conditions. Usually, ERGs are recorded with a nonzero lower cutoff frequency of amplifiers to avoid certain artifacts, and additionally, responses are averaged over time so that non-event-related signals are cancelled out. However, the improved signal quality is associated with a loss of information. Especially in steady-state flicker ERG, information about the absolute baseline of recordings is missing because the prestimulus baseline is not included on the recording trace as well as because a zero response is obtained in all cases in which the signal baseline stays constant for a sufficient amount of time. In other words, it is impossible to tell from the conventional flicker ERG whether a zero signal is obtained under conditions of maximal or no excitation of the visual system. In this chapter, we describe a direct current ERG protocol (featuring a lower cutoff frequency of zero) with repetitive single flashes mimicking conventional flicker that contains a defined onset. Using this recording protocol, it is possible to assess not only the absolute excitatory level of the retina but also the development of steady-state responses from the single flash response.

  7. Continuous sea-level reconstructions beyond the Pleistocene: improving the Mediterranean sea-level method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, K.; Rohling, E. J.; Amies, J.

    2017-12-01

    Sea-level (SL) reconstructions over glacial-interglacial timeframes are critical for understanding the equilibrium response of ice sheets to sustained warming. In particular, continuous and high-resolution SL records are essential for accurately quantifying `natural' rates of SL rise. Global SL changes are well-constrained since the last glacial maximum ( 20,000 years ago, ky) by radiometrically-dated corals and paleoshoreline data, and fairly well-constrained over the last glacial cycle ( 150 ky). Prior to that, however, studies of ice-volume:SL relationships tend to rely on benthic δ18O, as geomorphological evidence is far more sparse and less reliably dated. An alternative SL reconstruction method (the `marginal basin' approach) was developed for the Red Sea over 500 ky, and recently attempted for the Mediterranean over 5 My (Rohling et al., 2014, Nature). This method exploits the strong sensitivity of seawater δ18O in these basins to SL changes in the relatively narrow and shallow straits which connect the basins with the open ocean. However, the initial Mediterranean SL method did not resolve sea-level highstands during Northern Hemisphere insolation maxima, when African monsoon run-off - strongly depleted in δ18O - reached the Mediterranean. Here, we present improvements to the `marginal basin' sea-level reconstruction method. These include a new `Med-Red SL stack', which combines new probabilistic Mediterranean and Red Sea sea-level stacks spanning the last 500 ky. We also show how a box model-data comparison of water-column δ18O changes over a monsoon interval allows us to quantify the monsoon versus SL δ18O imprint on Mediterranean foraminiferal carbonate δ18O records. This paves the way for a more accurate and fully continuous SL reconstruction extending back through the Pliocene.

  8. Updating Maryland's sea-level rise projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boesch, Donald F.; Atkinson, Larry P.; Boicourt, William C.; Boon, John D.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Dalrymple, Robert A.; Ezer, Tal; Horton, Benjamin P.; Johnson, Zoe P.; Kopp, Robert E.; Li, Ming; Moss, Richard H.; Parris, Adam; Sommerfield, Christopher K.

    2013-01-01

    With its 3,100 miles of tidal shoreline and low-lying rural and urban lands, “The Free State” is one of the most vulnerable to sea-level rise. Historically, Marylanders have long had to contend with rising water levels along its Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic Ocean and coastal bay shores. Shorelines eroded and low-relief lands and islands, some previously inhabited, were inundated. Prior to the 20th century, this was largely due to the slow sinking of the land since Earth’s crust is still adjusting to the melting of large masses of ice following the last glacial period. Over the 20th century, however, the rate of rise of the average level of tidal waters with respect to land, or relative sea-level rise, has increased, at least partially as a result of global warming. Moreover, the scientific evidence is compelling that Earth’s climate will continue to warm and its oceans will rise even more rapidly. Recognizing the scientific consensus around global climate change, the contribution of human activities to it, and the vulnerability of Maryland’s people, property, public investments, and natural resources, Governor Martin O’Malley established the Maryland Commission on Climate Change on April 20, 2007. The Commission produced a Plan of Action that included a comprehensive climate change impact assessment, a greenhouse gas reduction strategy, and strategies for reducing Maryland’s vulnerability to climate change. The Plan has led to landmark legislation to reduce the state’s greenhouse gas emissions and a variety of state policies designed to reduce energy consumption and promote adaptation to climate change.

  9. Deglacial sea level history of the East Siberian Sea and Chukchi Sea margins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, Thomas M.; O'Regan, Matt; Pearce, Christof; Gemery, Laura; Toomey, Michael; Semiletov, Igor

    2017-01-01

    Deglacial (12.8–10.7 ka) sea level history on the East Siberian continental shelf and upper continental slope was reconstructed using new geophysical records and sediment cores taken during Leg 2 of the 2014 SWERUS-C3 expedition. The focus of this study is two cores from Herald Canyon, piston core SWERUS-L2-4-PC1 (4-PC1) and multicore SWERUS-L2-4-MC1 (4-MC1), and a gravity core from an East Siberian Sea transect, SWERUS-L2-20-GC1 (20-GC1). Cores 4-PC1 and 20-GC were taken at 120 and 115 m of modern water depth, respectively, only a few meters above the global last glacial maximum (LGM;  ∼  24 kiloannum or ka) minimum sea level of  ∼  125–130 meters below sea level (m b.s.l.). Using calibrated radiocarbon ages mainly on molluscs for chronology and the ecology of benthic foraminifera and ostracode species to estimate paleodepths, the data reveal a dominance of river-proximal species during the early part of the Younger Dryas event (YD, Greenland Stadial GS-1) followed by a rise in river-intermediate species in the late Younger Dryas or the early Holocene (Preboreal) period. A rapid relative sea level rise beginning at roughly 11.4 to 10.8 ka ( ∼  400 cm of core depth) is indicated by a sharp faunal change and unconformity or condensed zone of sedimentation. Regional sea level at this time was about 108 m b.s.l. at the 4-PC1 site and 102 m b.s.l. at 20-GC1. Regional sea level near the end of the YD was up to 42–47 m lower than predicted by geophysical models corrected for glacio-isostatic adjustment. This discrepancy could be explained by delayed isostatic adjustment caused by a greater volume and/or geographical extent of glacial-age land ice and/or ice shelves in the western Arctic Ocean and adjacent Siberian land areas.

  10. Deglacial sea level history of the East Siberian Sea and Chukchi Sea margins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, Thomas M.; O'Regan, Matt; Pearce, Christof; Gemery, Laura; Toomey, Michael; Semiletov, Igor; Jakobsson, Martin

    2017-09-01

    Deglacial (12.8-10.7 ka) sea level history on the East Siberian continental shelf and upper continental slope was reconstructed using new geophysical records and sediment cores taken during Leg 2 of the 2014 SWERUS-C3 expedition. The focus of this study is two cores from Herald Canyon, piston core SWERUS-L2-4-PC1 (4-PC1) and multicore SWERUS-L2-4-MC1 (4-MC1), and a gravity core from an East Siberian Sea transect, SWERUS-L2-20-GC1 (20-GC1). Cores 4-PC1 and 20-GC were taken at 120 and 115 m of modern water depth, respectively, only a few meters above the global last glacial maximum (LGM; ˜ 24 kiloannum or ka) minimum sea level of ˜ 125-130 meters below sea level (m b.s.l.). Using calibrated radiocarbon ages mainly on molluscs for chronology and the ecology of benthic foraminifera and ostracode species to estimate paleodepths, the data reveal a dominance of river-proximal species during the early part of the Younger Dryas event (YD, Greenland Stadial GS-1) followed by a rise in river-intermediate species in the late Younger Dryas or the early Holocene (Preboreal) period. A rapid relative sea level rise beginning at roughly 11.4 to 10.8 ka ( ˜ 400 cm of core depth) is indicated by a sharp faunal change and unconformity or condensed zone of sedimentation. Regional sea level at this time was about 108 m b.s.l. at the 4-PC1 site and 102 m b.s.l. at 20-GC1. Regional sea level near the end of the YD was up to 42-47 m lower than predicted by geophysical models corrected for glacio-isostatic adjustment. This discrepancy could be explained by delayed isostatic adjustment caused by a greater volume and/or geographical extent of glacial-age land ice and/or ice shelves in the western Arctic Ocean and adjacent Siberian land areas.

  11. Deglacial sea level history of the East Siberian Sea and Chukchi Sea margins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. M. Cronin

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Deglacial (12.8–10.7 ka sea level history on the East Siberian continental shelf and upper continental slope was reconstructed using new geophysical records and sediment cores taken during Leg 2 of the 2014 SWERUS-C3 expedition. The focus of this study is two cores from Herald Canyon, piston core SWERUS-L2-4-PC1 (4-PC1 and multicore SWERUS-L2-4-MC1 (4-MC1, and a gravity core from an East Siberian Sea transect, SWERUS-L2-20-GC1 (20-GC1. Cores 4-PC1 and 20-GC were taken at 120 and 115 m of modern water depth, respectively, only a few meters above the global last glacial maximum (LGM;  ∼  24 kiloannum or ka minimum sea level of  ∼  125–130 meters below sea level (m b.s.l.. Using calibrated radiocarbon ages mainly on molluscs for chronology and the ecology of benthic foraminifera and ostracode species to estimate paleodepths, the data reveal a dominance of river-proximal species during the early part of the Younger Dryas event (YD, Greenland Stadial GS-1 followed by a rise in river-intermediate species in the late Younger Dryas or the early Holocene (Preboreal period. A rapid relative sea level rise beginning at roughly 11.4 to 10.8 ka ( ∼  400 cm of core depth is indicated by a sharp faunal change and unconformity or condensed zone of sedimentation. Regional sea level at this time was about 108 m b.s.l. at the 4-PC1 site and 102 m b.s.l. at 20-GC1. Regional sea level near the end of the YD was up to 42–47 m lower than predicted by geophysical models corrected for glacio-isostatic adjustment. This discrepancy could be explained by delayed isostatic adjustment caused by a greater volume and/or geographical extent of glacial-age land ice and/or ice shelves in the western Arctic Ocean and adjacent Siberian land areas.

  12. GHRSST Level 4 DMI_OI North Sea and Baltic Sea Regional Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 1)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on an operational basis by the Danish...

  13. Long-term sea level change in the Malaysian seas from multi-mission altimetry data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Din, A.H.; Omar, K.M.; Naeije, M.C.; Ses, S.

    2012-01-01

    The long-term sea level change during 1993 to 2008 was investigated in the Malaysian seas from satellite altimetry data of the TOPEX, JASON-1, ERS-1, ERS-2 and ENVISAT missions. Sea level data retrieval and reduction were carried out using the radar altimeter database system (RADS). In RADS data

  14. Monitoring sea level and sea surface temperature trends from ERS satellites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Knudsen, Per; Beckley, B.

    2002-01-01

    Data from the two ESA satellites ERS-1 and ERS-2 are used in global and regional analysis of sea level and sea surface temperature trends over the last, 7.8 years. T he ERS satellites and in the future the ENVISAT satellite provide unique opportunity for monitoring both changes in sea level and s...

  15. GHRSST Level 4 ODYSSEA Mediterranean Sea Regional Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 1)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on an operational basis at Ifremer/CERSAT...

  16. GHRSST Level 4 EUR Mediterranean Sea Regional Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily by Ifremer/CERSAT (France) using optimal...

  17. Present day sea level changes: observation and causes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lombard, A.

    2005-11-01

    Whereas sea level has changed little over the last 2000 years, it has risen at a rate of about 2 mm/year during the 20. century. This unexpected sea level rise has been attributed to the anthropogenic global warming, recorded over several decades. Sea level variations have been measured globally and precisely for about 12 years due to satellite altimeter missions Topex/Poseidon and Jason-1. These observations indicate a global mean sea level rise of about 3 mm/year since 1993, a value significantly larger than observed during previous decades. Recent observations have allowed us to quantify the various climatic factors contributing to observed sea level change: thermal expansion of sea water due to ocean warming, melting of mountain glaciers and ice sheets, and changes in the land water reservoirs. A water budget based on these new observations allows us to partly explain the observed sea level rise. In particular, we show that the thermal expansion explains only 25% of the secular sea level rise as recorded by tide-gauges over the last 50 years, while it contributes about 50% of sea level rise observed over the last decade. Meanwhile, recent studies show that glacier and ice sheet melting could contribute the equivalent of 1 mm/year in sea level rise over the last decade. In addition, the high regional variability of sea level trends revealed by satellite altimetry is mainly due to thermal expansion. There is also an important decadal spatio-temporal variability in the ocean thermal expansion over the last 50 years, which seems to be controlled by natural climate fluctuations. We question for the first time the link between the decadal fluctuations in the ocean thermal expansion and in the land reservoirs, and indeed their climatic contribution to sea level change. Finally a preliminary analysis of GRACE spatial gravimetric observations over the oceans allows us to estimate the seasonal variations in mean sea level due to ocean water mass balance variations

  18. Reconstructing Mid- to Late Holocene sea-level change from coral microatolls, French Polynesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallmann, Nadine; Camoin, Gilbert; Eisenhauer, Anton; Botella, Alberic; Milne, Glenn; Vella, Claude; Samankassou, Elias; Pothin, Virginie; Dussouillez, Philippe; Fleury, Jules; Fietzke, Jan

    2017-04-01

    Coral microatolls are sensitive low-tide recorders, as their vertical accretion is limited by the mean low water springs level, and can be considered therefore as high-precision recorders of sea-level change. They are of pivotal importance to resolving the rates and amplitudes of millennial-to-century scale changes during periods of relative climate stability such as the Mid- to Late Holocene, which serves as an important baseline of natural variability prior to the industrial revolution. It provides therefore a unique opportunity to study coastal response to sea-level rise, even if the rates of sea-level rise during the Mid- to Late Holocene were lower than the current rates and those expected in the near future. Mid- to Late Holocene relative sea-level change in French Polynesia was reconstructed based on the coupling between absolute U/Th dating of in situ coral microatolls and their precise positioning via GPS RTK (Real Time Kinematic) measurements. The twelve studied islands represent ideal settings for accurate sea-level studies because: 1) they can be regarded as tectonically stable during the relevant period (slow subsidence), 2) they are located far from former ice sheets (far-field), 3) they are characterized by a low tidal amplitude, and 4) they cover a wide range of latitudes which produces significantly improved constraints on GIA (Glacial Isostatic Adjustment) model parameters. A step-like sea-level rise is evidenced between 6 and 3.9 ka leading to a short sea-level highstand of about a meter in amplitude between 3.9 and 3.6 ka. A sea-level fall, at an average rate of 0.3 mm.yr-1, is recorded between 3.6 and 1.2 ka when sea level approached its present position. In addition, growth pattern analysis of coral microatolls allows the reconstruction of low-amplitude, high-frequency sea-level change on centennial to sub-decadal time scales. The reconstructed sea-level curve extends the Tahiti last deglacial sea-level curve [Deschamps et al., 2012, Nature

  19. Timescales for detecting a significant acceleration in sea level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haigh, Ivan D; Wahl, Thomas; Rohling, Eelco J; Price, René M; Pattiaratchi, Charitha B; Calafat, Francisco M; Dangendorf, Sönke

    2014-04-14

    There is observational evidence that global sea level is rising and there is concern that the rate of rise will increase, significantly threatening coastal communities. However, considerable debate remains as to whether the rate of sea level rise is currently increasing and, if so, by how much. Here we provide new insights into sea level accelerations by applying the main methods that have been used previously to search for accelerations in historical data, to identify the timings (with uncertainties) at which accelerations might first be recognized in a statistically significant manner (if not apparent already) in sea level records that we have artificially extended to 2100. We find that the most important approach to earliest possible detection of a significant sea level acceleration lies in improved understanding (and subsequent removal) of interannual to multidecadal variability in sea level records.

  20. Future extreme sea level seesaws in the tropical Pacific

    OpenAIRE

    Widlansky, Matthew J.; Timmermann, Axel; Cai, Wenju

    2015-01-01

    Global mean sea levels are projected to gradually rise in response to greenhouse warming. However, on shorter time scales, modes of natural climate variability in the Pacific, such as the El Ni?o?Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can affect regional sea level variability and extremes, with considerable impacts on coastal ecosystems and island nations. How these shorter-term sea level fluctuations will change in association with a projected increase in extreme El Ni?o and its atmospheric variabilit...

  1. Sensitivity of Red Sea circulation to sea level and insolation forcing during the last interglacial

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trommer, G.; Siccha, M.; Rohling, E.J.; Grant, K.; van der Meer, M.T.J.; Schouten, S.; Baranowski, U.; Kucera, M.

    2011-01-01

    This study investigates the response of Red Sea circulation to sea level and insolation changes during termination II and across the last interglacial, in comparison with termination I and the Holocene. Sediment cores from the central and northern part of the Red Sea were investigated by

  2. Potential of sea level rise impact on South China Sea: a preliminary ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The effect of the sea level rise was involved the existence of sea water intrusion and coastal erosion phenomenon in the coastal of Terengganu. This study aim to determine fluctuation of high and low tides of the South China Sea in their relation to water quality value of Marang and Paka Rivers as well as from wells ...

  3. The social values at risk from sea-level rise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graham, Sonia; Barnett, Jon; Fincher, Ruth; Hurlimann, Anna; Mortreux, Colette; Waters, Elissa

    2013-01-01

    Analysis of the risks of sea-level rise favours conventionally measured metrics such as the area of land that may be subsumed, the numbers of properties at risk, and the capital values of assets at risk. Despite this, it is clear that there exist many less material but no less important values at risk from sea-level rise. This paper re-theorises these multifarious social values at risk from sea-level rise, by explaining their diverse nature, and grounding them in the everyday practices of people living in coastal places. It is informed by a review and analysis of research on social values from within the fields of social impact assessment, human geography, psychology, decision analysis, and climate change adaptation. From this we propose that it is the ‘lived values’ of coastal places that are most at risk from sea-level rise. We then offer a framework that groups these lived values into five types: those that are physiological in nature, and those that relate to issues of security, belonging, esteem, and self-actualisation. This framework of lived values at risk from sea-level rise can guide empirical research investigating the social impacts of sea-level rise, as well as the impacts of actions to adapt to sea-level rise. It also offers a basis for identifying the distribution of related social outcomes across populations exposed to sea-level rise or sea-level rise policies

  4. Arctic Sea Level During the Satellite Altimetry Era

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carret, A.; Johannessen, J. A.; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

    2017-01-01

    Results of the sea-level budget in the high latitudes (up to 80°N) and the Arctic Ocean during the satellite altimetry era. We investigate the closure of the sea-level budget since 2002 using two altimetry sea-level datasets based on the Envisat waveform retracking: temperature and salinity data....... However, in terms of regional average over the region ranging from 66°N to 80°N, the steric component contributes little to the observed sea-level trend, suggesting a dominant mass contribution in the Arctic region. This is confirmed by GRACE-based ocean mass time series that agree well with the altimetry...

  5. The social values at risk from sea-level rise

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Graham, Sonia, E-mail: sonia.graham@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Barnett, Jon, E-mail: jbarn@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Fincher, Ruth, E-mail: r.fincher@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Hurlimann, Anna, E-mail: anna.hurlimann@unimelb.edu.au [Faculty of Architecture, Building and Planning, The University of Melbourne, Architecture and Planning Building, Parkville, Victoria 3010 (Australia); Mortreux, Colette, E-mail: colettem@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Waters, Elissa, E-mail: elissa.waters@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia)

    2013-07-15

    Analysis of the risks of sea-level rise favours conventionally measured metrics such as the area of land that may be subsumed, the numbers of properties at risk, and the capital values of assets at risk. Despite this, it is clear that there exist many less material but no less important values at risk from sea-level rise. This paper re-theorises these multifarious social values at risk from sea-level rise, by explaining their diverse nature, and grounding them in the everyday practices of people living in coastal places. It is informed by a review and analysis of research on social values from within the fields of social impact assessment, human geography, psychology, decision analysis, and climate change adaptation. From this we propose that it is the ‘lived values’ of coastal places that are most at risk from sea-level rise. We then offer a framework that groups these lived values into five types: those that are physiological in nature, and those that relate to issues of security, belonging, esteem, and self-actualisation. This framework of lived values at risk from sea-level rise can guide empirical research investigating the social impacts of sea-level rise, as well as the impacts of actions to adapt to sea-level rise. It also offers a basis for identifying the distribution of related social outcomes across populations exposed to sea-level rise or sea-level rise policies.

  6. The rise of sea level. To understand and to anticipate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-03-01

    By proposing and briefly commenting graphs and drawings, this publication propose brief presentations of the main issues related to sea level rise: global warming and climate disturbance, description of the phenomenon of sea level rise (difference between sea ice and ground ice, melting of glaciers), increase of sea level rise during the twentieth century, territories at risk (examples of Greenland, Tuvalu, Shanghai), acceleration of ice melting during the twenty first century with many coastal areas at risk, already noticed and possible future impacts in France (glaciers runoff, threatened coasts, example of the Xynthia tempest), how to be united and to anticipate (a threat for millions of people, adaptation to sea level rise, limitation of global warming to limit sea level rise)

  7. Barrier response to Holocene sea-level rise

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pejrup, Morten; Andersen, Thorbjørn Joest; Johannessen, Peter N

    Normally it is believed that sea-level rise causes coastal barrier retreat. However, sea-level is only one of the parameters determining the long term coastal development of barrier coasts. Sediment supply is an equally important determinant and may overshadow the effects of sea-level rise....... Conceptually this has been known for a long time but for the first time we can show the relative effect of these two parameters. We have studied three neighboring barrier islands in the Wadden Sea, and described their 3D morphological evolution during the last 8000 years. It appears that the barrier islands...... a much stronger component of sea-level control. The distance between the islands is only 50 km, and therefore our study shows that prediction of barrier development during a period of rising sea level may be more complicated than formerly believed....

  8. The need for an established allocation method when assessing absolute sustainability on a product level

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ryberg, Morten; Owsianiak, Mikolaj; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky

    2015-01-01

    Assessment of absolute sustainability within life cycle assessment (LCA) framework is operational on the country scale. However, it is difficult to apply the existing approaches to products, which are typically the scope of LCAs. How should we assess whether a chair is (absolutely) sustainable......? If we assess the life cycle and relate the impact scores to the remaining capacity available for impacts, there is a risk that all products are seen absolutely sustainable. In addition, how should we decide on who can use the remaining capacity? To address these issues an allocation method is proposed...... for dividing the remaining capacity between and within product groups. The method is a two- step method developed based on the annual consumption pattern of an average person in the country and share of product sub-groups in the group. For example, in the first allocation step, the remaining capacity share...

  9. Exploring the Saturation Levels of Stimulated Raman Scattering in the Absolute Regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michel, D. T.; Depierreux, S.; Tassin, V.; Stenz, C.; Labaune, C.

    2010-01-01

    This Letter reports new experimental results that evidence the transition between the absolute and convective growth of stimulated Raman scattering (SRS). Significant reflectivities were observed only when the instability grows in the absolute regime. In this case, saturation processes efficiently limit the SRS reflectivity that is shown to scale linearly with the laser intensity, and the electron density and temperature. Such a scaling agrees with the one established by T. Kolber et al.[Phys. Fluids B 5, 138 (1993)] and B Bezzerides et al.[Phys. Rev. Lett. 70, 2569 (1993)], from numerical simulations where the Raman saturation is due to the coupling of electron plasma waves with ion waves dynamics.

  10. ACCELERATION OF SEA LEVEL RISE OVER MALAYSIAN SEAS FROM SATELLITE ALTIMETER

    OpenAIRE

    A. I. A. Hamid; A. H. M. Din; N. F. Khalid; K. M. Omar

    2016-01-01

    Sea level rise becomes our concern nowadays as a result of variously contribution of climate change that cause by the anthropogenic effects. Global sea levels have been rising through the past century and are projected to rise at an accelerated rate throughout the 21st century. Due to this change, sea level is now constantly rising and eventually will threaten many low-lying and unprotected coastal areas in many ways. This paper is proposing a significant effort to quantify the sea level tren...

  11. Impact of sea-level rise on sea water intrusion in coastal aquifers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werner, Adrian D; Simmons, Craig T

    2009-01-01

    Despite its purported importance, previous studies of the influence of sea-level rise on coastal aquifers have focused on specific sites, and a generalized systematic analysis of the general case of the sea water intrusion response to sea-level rise has not been reported. In this study, a simple conceptual framework is used to provide a first-order assessment of sea water intrusion changes in coastal unconfined aquifers in response to sea-level rise. Two conceptual models are tested: (1) flux-controlled systems, in which ground water discharge to the sea is persistent despite changes in sea level, and (2) head-controlled systems, whereby ground water abstractions or surface features maintain the head condition in the aquifer despite sea-level changes. The conceptualization assumes steady-state conditions, a sharp interface sea water-fresh water transition zone, homogeneous and isotropic aquifer properties, and constant recharge. In the case of constant flux conditions, the upper limit for sea water intrusion due to sea-level rise (up to 1.5 m is tested) is no greater than 50 m for typical values of recharge, hydraulic conductivity, and aquifer depth. This is in striking contrast to the constant head cases, in which the magnitude of salt water toe migration is on the order of hundreds of meters to several kilometers for the same sea-level rise. This study has highlighted the importance of inland boundary conditions on the sea-level rise impact. It identifies combinations of hydrogeologic parameters that control whether large or small salt water toe migration will occur for any given change in a hydrogeologic variable.

  12. The Paris Agreement's imprint on 2300 sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengel, Matthias; Nauels, Alexander; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich

    2017-04-01

    The 2015 Paris Agreement aims at reducing climate-related risks by putting a limit to global mean temperature increase. Furthermore, global greenhouse gas emissions should peak as soon as possible and reach net-zero in the second half of the 21st century under the agreement. Sea level rise is one of the major impacts of climate change and will continue for long after emissions have ceased. Here we quantify the effect of near-term and long-term emissions constraints of the Paris Agreement on climate-driven sea level rise until 2300 using a contribution-based methodology that is consistent with the IPCC AR5 sea level estimates. We study median sea level rise for scenarios stabilizing global mean temperatures between 1.5° C and 2° C above pre-industrial levels and net-zero greenhouse gas emission scenarios that lead to declining temperatures. Once global mean temperatures pass 1.5 °C, sea level rise below one meter until 2300 is out of reach for temperature stabilization scenarios. Net-zero emissions can reduce sea level rise caused by temperature overshoot only within limits. By linking sea level rise to near-term mitigation action, we find that delayed near-term mitigation action leads to increased sea level rise far beyond 2100.

  13. Understanding extreme sea levels for coastal impact and adaptation analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahl, T.; Haigh, I. D.; Nicholls, R. J.; Arns, A.; Hinkel, J.; Dangendorf, S.; Slangen, A.

    2016-12-01

    Coastal impact and adaptation assessments require detailed knowledge on extreme sea levels, because increasing damage due to extreme events, such as storm surges and tropical cyclones, is one of the major consequences of sea level rise and climate change. In fact, the IPCC has highlighted in its AR4 report that "societal impacts of sea level change primarily occur via the extreme levels rather than as a direct consequence of mean sea level changes". Over the last few decades, substantial research efforts have been directed towards improved understanding of past and future mean sea level; different scenarios were developed with process-based or semi-empirical models and used for coastal impact assessments at various spatial scales to guide coastal management and adaptation efforts. The uncertainties in future sea level rise are typically accounted for by analyzing the impacts associated with a range of scenarios leading to a vertical displacement of the distribution of extreme sea-levels. And indeed most regional and global studies find little or no evidence for changes in storminess with climate change, although there is still low confidence in the results. However, and much more importantly, there is still a limited understanding of present-day extreme sea-levels which is largely ignored in most impact and adaptation analyses. The two key uncertainties stem from: (1) numerical models that are used to generate long time series of extreme sea-levels. The bias of these models varies spatially and can reach values much larger than the expected sea level rise; but it can be accounted for in most regions making use of in-situ measurements; (2) Statistical models used for determining present-day extreme sea-level exceedance probabilities. There is no universally accepted approach to obtain such values for flood risk assessments and while substantial research has explored inter-model uncertainties for mean sea level, we explore here, for the first time, inter

  14. Does Sea Level Change when a Floating Iceberg Melts?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lan, Boon Leong

    2010-01-01

    On the answer page to a recent "Figuring Physics" question, the cute mouse asks another question: "Does the [sea] water level change if the iceberg melts?" The conventional answer is "no." However, in this paper I will show through a simple analysis involving Archimedes' principle that the sea level will rise. The analysis shows the wrong…

  15. The Changing Global Climate and its Implication on Sea Level ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Ocean Region. S.B. Mahongo. Tanzania Fisheries Research Institute (TAFIRI), P.O. Box 9750, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Keywords: Sea Level Trends, Tide Gauge Stations, Climate ... Indian Ocean region with at least four years of data portray rising trends of relative sea levels ..... the readjustment of the ocean circulation to.

  16. Benchmarking and testing the “Sea Level Equation”

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spada, G.; Barletta, Valentina Roberta; Klemann, V.

    from the interpretation of modern satellite geodetic measurements to the projections of future sea level trends in response to climate change. All the processes accompanying GIA can be described solving the so-called Sea Level Equation (SLE), an integral equation that accounts for the interactions be...

  17. Future extreme sea level seesaws in the tropical Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widlansky, Matthew J; Timmermann, Axel; Cai, Wenju

    2015-09-01

    Global mean sea levels are projected to gradually rise in response to greenhouse warming. However, on shorter time scales, modes of natural climate variability in the Pacific, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can affect regional sea level variability and extremes, with considerable impacts on coastal ecosystems and island nations. How these shorter-term sea level fluctuations will change in association with a projected increase in extreme El Niño and its atmospheric variability remains unknown. Using present-generation coupled climate models forced with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and subtracting the effect of global mean sea level rise, we find that climate change will enhance El Niño-related sea level extremes, especially in the tropical southwestern Pacific, where very low sea level events, locally known as Taimasa, are projected to double in occurrence. Additionally, and throughout the tropical Pacific, prolonged interannual sea level inundations are also found to become more likely with greenhouse warming and increased frequency of extreme La Niña events, thus exacerbating the coastal impacts of the projected global mean sea level rise.

  18. Separating decadal global water cycle variability from sea level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlington, B D; Reager, J T; Lo, M-H; Karnauskas, K B; Leben, R R

    2017-04-20

    Under a warming climate, amplification of the water cycle and changes in precipitation patterns over land are expected to occur, subsequently impacting the terrestrial water balance. On global scales, such changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) will be reflected in the water contained in the ocean and can manifest as global sea level variations. Naturally occurring climate-driven TWS variability can temporarily obscure the long-term trend in sea level rise, in addition to modulating the impacts of sea level rise through natural periodic undulation in regional and global sea level. The internal variability of the global water cycle, therefore, confounds both the detection and attribution of sea level rise. Here, we use a suite of observations to quantify and map the contribution of TWS variability to sea level variability on decadal timescales. In particular, we find that decadal sea level variability centered in the Pacific Ocean is closely tied to low frequency variability of TWS in key areas across the globe. The unambiguous identification and clean separation of this component of variability is the missing step in uncovering the anthropogenic trend in sea level and understanding the potential for low-frequency modulation of future TWS impacts including flooding and drought.

  19. Integrative study of the mean sea level and its components

    CERN Document Server

    Champollion, Nicolas; Paul, Frank; Benveniste, Jérôme

    2017-01-01

    This volume presents the most recent results of global mean sea level variations over the satellite altimetry era (starting in the early 1990s) and associated contributions, such as glaciers and ice sheets mass loss, ocean thermal expansion, and land water storage changes. Sea level is one of the best indicators of global climate changes as it integrates the response of several components of the climate system to external forcing factors (including anthropogenic forcing) and internal climate variability. Providing long, accurate records of the sea level at global and regional scales and of the various components causing sea level changes is of crucial importance to improve our understanding of climate processes at work and to validate the climate models used for future projections. The Climate Change Initiative project of the European Space Agency has provided a first attempt to produce consistent and continuous space-based records for several climate parameters observable from space, among them sea level. Th...

  20. Anthropogenic forcing dominates sea level rise since 1850

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John

    2009-01-01

    that until 1800 the main drivers of sea level change are volcanic and solar radiative forcings. For the past 200 years sea level rise is mostly associated with anthropogenic factors. Only 4 ± 1.5 cm (25% of total sea level rise) during the 20th century is attributed to natural forcings, the remaining 14 ± 1.......5 cm are due to a rapid increase in CO2 and other greenhouse gases.......The rate of sea level rise and its causes are topics of active debate. Here we use a delayed response statistical model to attribute the past 1000 years of sea level variability to various natural (volcanic and solar radiative) and anthropogenic (greenhouse gases and aerosols) forcings. We show...

  1. Mid- to Late Holocene Sea-Level Record in French Polynesia, South-Central Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallmann, N.; Camoin, G.; Vella, C.; Eisenhauer, A.; Samankassou, E.; Botella, A.; Milne, G. A.; Fietzke, J.; Dussouillez, P.; Plaine, J.

    2014-12-01

    The Mid- to Late Holocene provides the opportunity to study the coastal response to sea-level change that has a similar amplitude (i.e., a few decimetres up to 1 m) to the sea-level rise that is likely to occur before the end of the current century. Furthermore, this time period provides an important baseline of natural climate variability prior to the industrial revolution. This study aims to reconstruct Mid- to Late Holocene relative sea-level change in French Polynesia by examining coral reef records from ten islands, which represent ideal settings for accurate sea-level change studies because: 1) they can be regarded as tectonically stable during the relevant period (slow subsidence), 2) they are located far from former ice sheets ('far-field'), 3) they are characterized by a low tidal amplitude, and 4) they cover a wide range of latitudes which produces significantly improved constraints on GIA (Glacial Isostatic Adjustment) model parameters. The accurate reconstruction of sea-level change relies on absolute U/Th dating of in situ coral colonies and their accurate positioning via GPS RTK (Real Time Kinematic) measurements with a vertical and horizontal precision of ± 2.5 cm and ~1 cm, respectively. We focus mainly on the analysis of coral microatolls, which are sensitive low-tide recorders, as their vertical accretion is limited by the water level. Their growth patterns allow the reconstruction of low-amplitude and high-frequency sea-level changes on centennial to sub-decadal time scales. A sea-level rise of less than ~1 m is documented between 6 and 3-3.5 ka, and is followed by a gradual fall in sea level that started around 2 ka and persisted until the past few centuries. The reconstructed sea-level curve therefore extends the Tahiti sea-level curve [Deschamps et al., 2012, Nature, 483, 559-564], and is in good agreement with a geophysical model tuned to fit far-field deglacial records [Bassett et al., 2005, Science, 309, 925-928].

  2. Reconstructing Mid- to Late Holocene Sea-Level Change from Coral Microatolls, French Polynesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallmann, N.; Camoin, G.; Eisenhauer, A.; Vella, C.; Samankassou, E.; Botella, A.; Milne, G. A.; Pothin, V.; Dussouillez, P.; Fleury, J.

    2017-12-01

    Coral microatolls are sensitive low-tide recorders, as their vertical accretion is limited by the mean low water springs level, and can be considered therefore as high-precision recorders of sea-level change. They are of pivotal importance to resolving the rates and amplitudes of millennial-to-century scale changes during periods of relative climate stability such as the Mid- to Late Holocene, which serves as an important baseline of natural variability prior to the Anthropocene. It provides therefore a unique opportunity to study coastal response to sea-level rise, even if the rates of sea-level rise during the Mid- to Late Holocene were lower than the current rates and those expected in the near future. Mid- to Late Holocene relative sea-level changes in French Polynesia encompassing the last 6,000 years were reconstructed based on the coupling between absolute U/Th dating of in situ coral microatolls and their precise positioning via GPS RTK (Real Time Kinematic) measurements. The twelve studied islands represent ideal settings for accurate sea-level studies because: 1) they can be regarded as tectonically stable during the relevant period (slow subsidence), 2) they are located far from former ice sheets (far-field), 3) they are characterized by a low tidal amplitude, and 4) they cover a wide range of latitudes which produces significantly improved constraints on GIA (Glacial Isostatic Adjustment) model parameters. A sea-level rise of less than 1 m is recorded between 6 and 3-3.5 ka, and is followed by a gradual fall in sea level that started around 2.5 ka and persisted until the past few centuries. In addition, growth pattern analysis of coral microatolls allows the reconstruction of low-amplitude, high-frequency sea-level change on centennial to sub-decadal time scales. The reconstructed sea-level curve extends the Tahiti last deglacial sea-level curve [Deschamps et al., 2012, Nature, 483, 559-564], and is in good agreement with a geophysical model tuned to

  3. Evaluating model simulations of 20th century sea-level rise. Part 1: global mean sea-level change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slangen, A.B.A.; Meyssignac, B.; Agosta, C.; Champollion, N.; Church, J.A.; Fettweis, X.; Ligtenberg, S.R.M.; Marzeion, B.; Melet, A.; Palmer, M.D.; Richter, K.; Roberts, C.D.; Spada, G.

    2017-01-01

    Sea level change is one of the major consequences of climate change and is projected to affect coastal communities around the world. Here, global mean sea level (GMSL) change estimated by 12 climate models from phase 5 of the World Climate Research Programme’s Climate Model Intercomparison Project

  4. Sea level rise and variability around Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tkalich, Pavel; Luu, Quang-Hung; Tay, Tze-Wei

    2014-05-01

    Peninsular Malaysia is bounded from the west by Malacca Strait and the Andaman Sea, both connected to the Indian Ocean, and from the east by South China Sea being largest marginal sea in the Pacific Basin. As a result, sea level along Peninsular Malaysia coast is assumed to be governed by various regional phenomena associated with the adjacent parts of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. At annual scale, sea level anomalies (SLAs) are generated by the Asian monsoon; interannual sea level variability is determined by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD); whilst long term sea level trend is coordinated by the global climate change. To quantify the relative impacts of these multi-scale phenomena on sea level trend and variability surrounding the Peninsular Malaysia, long-term tide gauge record and satellite altimetry are used. During 1984-2011, relative sea level rise (SLR) rates in waters of Malacca Strait and eastern Peninsular Malaysia are found to be 2.4 ± 0.8 mm/yr and 2.7 ± 0.6 mm/yr, respectively. Discounting for their vertical land movements (0.8 ± 2.6 mm/yr and 0.9 ± 2.2 mm/yr, respectively), their pure SLR rates are 1.6 ± 3.4 mm/yr and 1.8 ± 2.8 mm/yr, respectively, which are lower than the global tendency. At interannual scale, ENSO affects sea level over the Malaysian east coast in the range of ± 5 cm with very high correlation coefficient. Meanwhile, IOD modulates sea level anomalies in the Malacca Strait in the range of ± 2 cm with high correlation coefficient. Interannual regional sea level drops are associated with El Niño events and positive phases of the IOD index; while the rises are correlated with La Niña episodes and the negative periods of the IOD index. Seasonally, SLAs are mainly monsoon-driven, in the order of 10-25 cm. Geographically, sea level responds differently to the monsoon: two cycles per year are observed in the Malacca Strait, presumably due to South Asian - Indian Monsoon; while single

  5. Sea-Level Rise Impacts on Hudson River Marshes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hooks, A.; Nitsche, F. O.

    2015-12-01

    The response of tidal marshes to increasing sea-level rise is uncertain. Tidal marshes can adapt to rising sea levels through vertical accretion and inland migration. Yet tidal marshes are vulnerable to submergence if the rate of sea-level rise exceeds the rate of accretion and if inland migration is limited by natural features or development. We studied how Piermont and Iona Island Marsh, two tidal marshes on the Hudson River, New York, would be affected by sea-level rise of 0.5m, 1m, and 1.5m by 2100. This study was based on the 2011-2012 Coastal New York LiDAR survey. Using GIS we mapped sea-level rise projections accounting for accretion rates and calculated the submerged area of the marsh. Based on the Hudson River National Estuarine Research Reserve Vegetation 2005 dataset, we studied how elevation zones based on vegetation distributions would change. To evaluate the potential for inland migration, we assessed land cover around each marsh using the National Land Cover Database 2011 Land Cover dataset and examined the slope beyond the marsh boundaries. With an accretion rate of 0.29cm/year and 0.5m of sea-level rise by 2100, Piermont Marsh would be mostly unchanged. With 1.5m of sea-level rise, 86% of Piermont Marsh would be flooded. For Iona Island Marsh with an accretion rate of 0.78cm/year, sea-level rise of 0.5m by 2100 would result in a 4% expansion while 1.5m sea-level rise would cause inundation of 17% of the marsh. The results indicate that Piermont and Iona Island Marsh may be able to survive rates of sea-level rise such as 0.5m by 2100 through vertical accretion. At rates of sea-level rise like 1.5m by 2100, vertical accretion cannot match sea-level rise, submerging parts of the marshes. High elevations and steep slopes limit Piermont and Iona Island Marsh's ability to migrate inland. Understanding the impacts of sea-level rise on Piermont and Iona Island Marsh allows for long-term planning and could motivate marsh conservation programs.

  6. Global mapping of nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilibić, Ivica; Šepić, Jadranka

    2017-01-18

    Present investigations of sea level extremes are based on hourly data measured at coastal tide gauges. The use of hourly data restricts existing global and regional analyses to periods larger than 2 h. However, a number of processes occur at minute timescales, of which the most ruinous are tsunamis. Meteotsunamis, hazardous nonseismic waves that occur at tsunami timescales over limited regions, may also locally dominate sea level extremes. Here, we show that nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales (sea level extremes, up to 50% in low-tidal basins. The intensity of these oscillations is zonally correlated with mid-tropospheric winds at the 99% significance level, with the variance doubling from the tropics and subtropics to the mid-latitudes. Specific atmospheric patterns are found during strong events at selected locations in the World Ocean, indicating a globally predominant generation mechanism. Our analysis suggests that these oscillations should be considered in sea level hazard assessment studies. Establishing a strong correlation between nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales and atmospheric synoptic patterns would allow for forecasting of nonseismic sea level oscillations for operational use, as well as hindcasting and projection of their effects under past, present and future climates.

  7. Sensitivity of Red Sea circulation to sea level and insolation forcing during the last interglacial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Trommer

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the response of Red Sea circulation to sea level and insolation changes during termination II and across the last interglacial, in comparison with termination I and the Holocene. Sediment cores from the central and northern part of the Red Sea were investigated by micropaleontological and geochemical proxies. The recovery of the planktic foraminiferal fauna following high salinities during marine isotopic stage (MIS 6 took place at similar sea-level stand (~50 m below present day, and with a similar species succession, as during termination I. This indicates a consistent sensitivity of the basin oceanography and the plankton ecology to sea-level forcing. Based on planktic foraminifera, we find that increased water exchange with the Gulf of Aden especially occurred during the sea-level highstand of interglacial MIS 5e. From MIS 6 to the peak of MIS 5e, northern Red Sea sea surface temperature (SST increased from 21 °C to 25 °C, with about 3 °C of this increase taking place during termination II. Changes in planktic foraminiferal assemblages indicate that the development of the Red Sea oceanography during MIS 5 was strongly determined by insolation and monsoon strength. The SW Monsoon summer circulation mode was enhanced during the termination, causing low productivity in northern central Red Sea core KL9, marked by high abundance of G. sacculifer, which – as in the Holocene – followed summer insolation. Core KL11 records the northern tip of the intruding intermediate water layer from the Gulf of Aden and its planktic foraminifera fauna shows evidence for elevated productivity during the sea-level highstand in the southern central Red Sea. By the time of MIS 5 sea-level regression, elevated organic biomarker BIT values suggest denudation of soil organic matter into the Red Sea and high abundances of G. glutinata, and high reconstructed chlorophyll-a values, indicate an intensified NE Monsoon

  8. Sea Level Data Archaeology for the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradshaw, Elizabeth; Matthews, Andy; Rickards, Lesley; Jevrejeva, Svetlana

    2015-04-01

    The Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) was set up in 1985 to collect long term tide gauge observations and has carried out a number of data archaeology activities over the past decade, including sending member organisations questionnaires to report on their repositories. The GLOSS Group of Experts (GLOSS GE) is looking to future developments in sea level data archaeology and will provide its user community with guidance on finding, digitising, quality controlling and distributing historic records. Many records may not be held in organisational archives and may instead by in national libraries, archives and other collections. GLOSS will promote a Citizen Science approach to discovering long term records by providing tools for volunteers to report data. Tide gauge data come in two different formats, charts and hand-written ledgers. Charts are paper analogue records generated by the mechanical instrument driving a pen trace. Several GLOSS members have developed software to automatically digitise these charts and the various methods were reported in a paper on automated techniques for the digitization of archived mareograms, delivered to the GLOSS GE 13th meeting. GLOSS is creating a repository of software for scanning analogue charts. NUNIEAU is the only publically available software for digitising tide gauge charts but other organisations have developed their own tide gauge digitising software that is available internally. There are several other freely available software packages that convert image data to numerical values. GLOSS could coordinate a comparison study of the various different digitising software programs by: Sending the same charts to each organisation and asking everyone to digitise them using their own procedures Comparing the digitised data Providing recommendations to the GLOSS community The other major form of analogue sea level data is handwritten ledgers, which are usually observations of high and low waters, but sometimes contain higher

  9. Sea level rise with warming above 2 degree

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Jackson, Luke; Riva, Riccardo; Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John

    2017-04-01

    Holding the increase in the global average temperature to below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C, has been agreed by the representatives of the 196 parties of United Nations, as an appropriate threshold beyond which climate change risks become unacceptably high. Sea level rise is one of the most damaging aspects of warming climate for the more than 600 million people living in low-elevation coastal areas less than 10 meters above sea level. Fragile coastal ecosystems and increasing concentrations of population and economic activity in coastal areas, are reasons why future sea level rise is one of the most damaging aspects of the warming climate. Furthermore, sea level is set to continue to rise for centuries after greenhouse gas emissions concentrations are stabilised due to system inertia and feedback time scales. Impact, risk, adaptation policies and long-term decision making in coastal areas depend on regional and local sea level rise projections and local projections can differ substantially from the global one. Here we provide probabilistic sea level rise projections for the global coastline with warming above the 2 degree goal. A warming of 2°C makes global ocean rise on average by 20 cm, but more than 90% of coastal areas will experience greater rises, 40 cm along the Atlantic coast of North America and Norway, due to ocean dynamics. If warming continues above 2°C, then by 2100 sea level will rise with speeds unprecedented throughout human civilization, reaching 0.9 m (median), and 80% of the global coastline will exceed the global ocean sea level rise upper 95% confidence limit of 1.8 m. Coastal communities of rapidly expanding cities in the developing world, small island states, and vulnerable tropical coastal ecosystems will have a very limited time after mid-century to adapt to sea level rises.

  10. Sea level change: lessons from the geologic record

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    1995-01-01

    Rising sea level is potentially one of the most serious impacts of climatic change. Even a small sea level rise would have serious economic consequences because it would cause extensive damage to the world's coastal regions. Sea level can rise in the future because the ocean surface can expand due to warming and because polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers can melt, increasing the ocean's volume of water. Today, ice caps on Antarctica and Greenland contain 91 and 8 percent of the world's ice, respectively. The world's mountain glaciers together contain only about 1 percent. Melting all this ice would raise sea level about 80 meters. Although this extreme scenario is not expected, geologists know that sea level can rise and fall rapidly due to changing volume of ice on continents. For example, during the last ice age, about 18,000 years ago, continental ice sheets contained more than double the modem volume of ice. As ice sheets melted, sea level rose 2 to 3 meters per century, and possibly faster during certain times. During periods in which global climate was very warm, polar ice was reduced and sea level was higher than today.

  11. Sea water intrusion by sea-level rise: scenarios for the 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loáiciga, Hugo A; Pingel, Thomas J; Garcia, Elizabeth S

    2012-01-01

    This study presents a method to assess the contributions of 21st-century sea-level rise and groundwater extraction to sea water intrusion in coastal aquifers. Sea water intrusion is represented by the landward advance of the 10,000 mg/L iso-salinity line, a concentration of dissolved salts that renders groundwater unsuitable for human use. A mathematical formulation of the resolution of sea water intrusion among its causes was quantified via numerical simulation under scenarios of change in groundwater extraction and sea-level rise in the 21st century. The developed method is illustrated with simulations of sea water intrusion in the Seaside Area sub-basin near the City of Monterey, California (USA), where predictions of mean sea-level rise through the early 21st century range from 0.10 to 0.90 m due to increasing global mean surface temperature. The modeling simulation was carried out with a state-of-the-art numerical model that accounts for the effects of salinity on groundwater density and can approximate hydrostratigraphic geometry closely. Simulations of sea water intrusion corresponding to various combinations of groundwater extraction and sea-level rise established that groundwater extraction is the predominant driver of sea water intrusion in the study aquifer. The method presented in this work is applicable to coastal aquifers under a variety of other scenarios of change not considered in this work. For example, one could resolve what changes in groundwater extraction and/or sea level would cause specified levels of groundwater salinization at strategic locations and times. © 2011, The Author(s). Ground Water © 2011, National Ground Water Association.

  12. Geomorphic expression of late Quaternary sea level changes along ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Geomorphic expression of land-sea interaction is preserved in the form of abandoned cliffs, marine terraces,shore platforms and marine notches along the southern Saurashtra coast. These features have been used to ascertain the magnitude of sea level changes during late Quaternary.Notch morphology and associated ...

  13. The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming

    OpenAIRE

    Levermann, Anders; Clark, Peter U.; Marzeion, Ben; Milne, Glenn A.; Pollard, David; Radic, Valentina; Robinson, Alexander

    2013-01-01

    Global mean sea level has been steadily rising over the last century, is projected to increase by the end of this century, and will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 unless the current global mean temperature trend is reversed. Inertia in the climate and global carbon system, however, causes the global mean temperature to decline slowly even after greenhouse gas emissions have ceased, raising the question of how much sea-level commitment is expected for different levels of global mean tem...

  14. Sea-level variability over five glacial cycles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, K M; Rohling, E J; Ramsey, C Bronk; Cheng, H; Edwards, R L; Florindo, F; Heslop, D; Marra, F; Roberts, A P; Tamisiea, M E; Williams, F

    2014-09-25

    Research on global ice-volume changes during Pleistocene glacial cycles is hindered by a lack of detailed sea-level records for time intervals older than the last interglacial. Here we present the first robustly dated, continuous and highly resolved records of Red Sea sea level and rates of sea-level change over the last 500,000 years, based on tight synchronization to an Asian monsoon record. We observe maximum 'natural' (pre-anthropogenic forcing) sea-level rise rates below 2 m per century following periods with up to twice present-day ice volumes, and substantially higher rise rates for greater ice volumes. We also find that maximum sea-level rise rates were attained within 2 kyr of the onset of deglaciations, for 85% of such events. Finally, multivariate regressions of orbital parameters, sea-level and monsoon records suggest that major meltwater pulses account for millennial-scale variability and insolation-lagged responses in Asian monsoon records.

  15. Sea level trend and variability around Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luu, Q. H.; Tkalich, P.; Tay, T. W.

    2015-08-01

    Sea level rise due to climate change is non-uniform globally, necessitating regional estimates. Peninsular Malaysia is located in the middle of Southeast Asia, bounded from the west by the Malacca Strait, from the east by the South China Sea (SCS), and from the south by the Singapore Strait. The sea level along the peninsula may be influenced by various regional phenomena native to the adjacent parts of the Indian and Pacific oceans. To examine the variability and trend of sea level around the peninsula, tide gauge records and satellite altimetry are analyzed taking into account vertical land movements (VLMs). At annual scale, sea level anomalies (SLAs) around Peninsular Malaysia on the order of 5-25 cm are mainly monsoon driven. Sea levels at eastern and western coasts respond differently to the Asian monsoon: two peaks per year in the Malacca Strait due to South Asian-Indian monsoon; an annual cycle in the remaining region mostly due to the East Asian-western Pacific monsoon. At interannual scale, regional sea level variability in the range of ±6 cm is correlated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). SLAs in the Malacca Strait side are further correlated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the range of ±5 cm. Interannual regional sea level falls are associated with El Nino events and positive phases of IOD, whilst rises are correlated with La Nina episodes and negative values of the IOD index. At seasonal to interannual scales, we observe the separation of the sea level patterns in the Singapore Strait, between the Raffles Lighthouse and Tanjong Pagar tide stations, likely caused by a dynamic constriction in the narrowest part. During the observation period 1986-2013, average relative rates of sea level rise derived from tide gauges in Malacca Strait and along the east coast of the peninsula are 3.6±1.6 and 3.7±1.1 mm yr-1, respectively. Correcting for respective VLMs (0.8±2.6 and 0.9±2.2 mm yr-1), their corresponding geocentric sea level rise rates

  16. Millennial, centennial and decadal sea- level change in Florida, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemp, A.; Hawkes, A. D.; Donnelly, J. P.; Horton, B. P.

    2012-12-01

    Reconstructions of relative sea-level changes on millennial timescales provide data against which to test and calibrate Earth-Ice models. On the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast they constrain the geometry of the Laurentide Ice Sheet's collapsing forebulge. Sea -level data from southeastern Atlantic coast additionally constrain ice-equivalent meltwater input. Here we produce the first Holocene sea-level curve for Florida and Georgia from the St. Mary's River using agglutinated foraminifera preserved in radiocarbon-dated brackish and salt-marsh sediment. The use of foraminfera as sea-level indicators was underpinned by local and regional datasets describing the modern distribution of assemblages that are analogues for those preserved in buried sediment. This approach produced 25 index points that record 5.2 m of relative sea level rise over the last 8000 years with no evidence of a mid Holocene high stand. These reconstructions indicate that existing GIA models do not replicate proxy reconstructions and that northern Florida is subsiding in response to ongoing forebulge collapse at an estimated rate of approximately 0.3 mm/yr. Over multi decadal time scales, detailed sea level reconstructions provide an appropriate geological context for modern rates of sea-level rise. Reconstructions spanning the last 2000 years of known climate variability are important for developing models with predictive capacity that link climate and sea level changes. A reconstruction of sea-level changes since 2000 years BP was developed using a core of brackish marsh sediment from the Nassau River in Florida. Foraminifera estimated the elevation of former sea level with an uncertainty of ± 10 cm. Consistent downcore assemblages indicate that the marsh maintained its tidal elevation for 2000 years. An age depth model was developed for the core results from radiocarbon dating, 210Pb and 137Cs. The resulting relative sea level record was adjusted for the contribution made by glacio

  17. Ocean Temperature and Salinity Contributions to Global and Regional Sea-Level Change (Chapter 6)

    OpenAIRE

    2010-01-01

    This chapter contains sections titled: Introduction Direct Estimates of Steric Sea-Level Rise Estimating Steric Sea-Level Change Using Ocean Syntheses Inferring Steric Sea Level from Time-Variable Gravity and Sea Level Modeling Steric Sea-Level Rise Conclusions and Recommendations Acknowledgments References

  18. THE INFLUENCE OF HEIGHT ABOVE SEA LEVEL ON WATER CONDUCTING TISSUE OF SEA BUCKTHORN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. U. Umarov

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The article gives the anatomical description of sea buckthorn, that grows 1200 and 1600 above the sea level in Eastern Caucasus. It analyses quantitative changes of its traits - radial growth, elements of water conducting tissue and the degree of its variability.

  19. The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levermann, Anders; Clark, Peter U; Marzeion, Ben; Milne, Glenn A; Pollard, David; Radic, Valentina; Robinson, Alexander

    2013-08-20

    Global mean sea level has been steadily rising over the last century, is projected to increase by the end of this century, and will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 unless the current global mean temperature trend is reversed. Inertia in the climate and global carbon system, however, causes the global mean temperature to decline slowly even after greenhouse gas emissions have ceased, raising the question of how much sea-level commitment is expected for different levels of global mean temperature increase above preindustrial levels. Although sea-level rise over the last century has been dominated by ocean warming and loss of glaciers, the sensitivity suggested from records of past sea levels indicates important contributions should also be expected from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Uncertainties in the paleo-reconstructions, however, necessitate additional strategies to better constrain the sea-level commitment. Here we combine paleo-evidence with simulations from physical models to estimate the future sea-level commitment on a multimillennial time scale and compute associated regional sea-level patterns. Oceanic thermal expansion and the Antarctic Ice Sheet contribute quasi-linearly, with 0.4 m °C(-1) and 1.2 m °C(-1) of warming, respectively. The saturation of the contribution from glaciers is overcompensated by the nonlinear response of the Greenland Ice Sheet. As a consequence we are committed to a sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 m °C(-1) within the next 2,000 y. Considering the lifetime of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, this imposes the need for fundamental adaptation strategies on multicentennial time scales.

  20. The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levermann, Anders; Clark, Peter U.; Marzeion, Ben; Milne, Glenn A.; Pollard, David; Radic, Valentina; Robinson, Alexander

    2013-01-01

    Global mean sea level has been steadily rising over the last century, is projected to increase by the end of this century, and will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 unless the current global mean temperature trend is reversed. Inertia in the climate and global carbon system, however, causes the global mean temperature to decline slowly even after greenhouse gas emissions have ceased, raising the question of how much sea-level commitment is expected for different levels of global mean temperature increase above preindustrial levels. Although sea-level rise over the last century has been dominated by ocean warming and loss of glaciers, the sensitivity suggested from records of past sea levels indicates important contributions should also be expected from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Uncertainties in the paleo-reconstructions, however, necessitate additional strategies to better constrain the sea-level commitment. Here we combine paleo-evidence with simulations from physical models to estimate the future sea-level commitment on a multimillennial time scale and compute associated regional sea-level patterns. Oceanic thermal expansion and the Antarctic Ice Sheet contribute quasi-linearly, with 0.4 m °C−1 and 1.2 m °C−1 of warming, respectively. The saturation of the contribution from glaciers is overcompensated by the nonlinear response of the Greenland Ice Sheet. As a consequence we are committed to a sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 m °C−1 within the next 2,000 y. Considering the lifetime of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, this imposes the need for fundamental adaptation strategies on multicentennial time scales. PMID:23858443

  1. MIS 5e relative sea-level changes in the Mediterranean Sea: Contribution of isostatic disequilibrium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stocchi, Paolo; Vacchi, Matteo; Lorscheid, Thomas; de Boer, Bas; Simms, Alexander R.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.; Vermeersen, Bert L. A.; Pappalardo, Marta; Rovere, Alessio

    2018-04-01

    Sea-level indicators dated to the Last Interglacial, or Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e, have a twofold value. First, they can be used to constrain the melting of Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets in response to global warming scenarios. Second, they can be used to calculate the vertical crustal rates at active margins. For both applications, the contribution of glacio- and hydro-isostatic adjustment (GIA) to vertical displacement of sea-level indicators must be calculated. In this paper, we re-assess MIS 5e sea-level indicators at 11 Mediterranean sites that have been generally considered tectonically stable or affected by mild tectonics. These are found within a range of elevations of 2-10 m above modern mean sea level. Four sites are characterized by two separate sea-level stands, which suggest a two-step sea-level highstand during MIS 5e. Comparing field data with numerical modeling we show that (i) GIA is an important contributor to the spatial and temporal variability of the sea-level highstand during MIS 5e, (ii) the isostatic imbalance from the melting of the MIS 6 ice sheet can produce a >2.0 m sea-level highstand, and (iii) a two-step melting phase for the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets reduces the differences between observations and predictions. Our results show that assumptions of tectonic stability on the basis of the MIS 5e records carry intrinsically large uncertainties, stemming either from uncertainties in field data and GIA models. The latter are propagated to either Holocene or Pleistocene sea-level reconstructions if tectonic rates are considered linear through time.

  2. Low frequency Sea Level Variability: correlation between altimetry and tide gauges in the Mediterranean Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonaduce, A.; Pinardi, N.

    2012-04-01

    Sea level variability in the Mediterranean Sea over the decadal time scale is studied using a combination of sea level and in-situ observations. A method to decompose the different sea level signals for tide gauges and altimetry is proposed, so that a coherent comparison between the two measurements is possible. The steric component and the atmospheric pressure contribution (inverse barometer) are filtered in order to look at sea level changes over decadal time scales. Low frequency sea level from tide gauges data is found to be representative of a large scale signal and results to be comparable, along all the basin, with satellite altimetry data. In particular the two signals are better correlated in the areas where the continental shelf is extended, such as the northern Adriatic. The same occurs in the case where the tide gauge station is located on an island, such as Malta, where the station is representative of the open ocean sea level signal. Moving towards the Levantin basin, the shelves extension generally decrease and the two data sets tend to be less correlated even if still correlated positively with a root mean square error lower than 5 cm (Hadera, Israel). Looking at the sea level trend, a positive trend of 2.15 ± 0.7 mm yr -1 is observed in the Mediterranean basin considering satellite altimetry during the period from 1993 to 2010 . Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) has been considered correcting sea level data with ICE-5G model data. This value represent just and index of the sea level changes occurring at basin scale. The basin presents a marked trend spatial variability, mainly characterized by strong positive trends in the shelves areas and negative trends in the Ionian sea, due to a strong change in the circulation in this basin. The variability of the trend values as a function of the number of years considered is such that at least 15 years of data are needed in order to obtain a significant and stable positive trend. The total lack of in

  3. Sea-level variability over the Common Era

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopp, Robert; Horton, Benjamin; Kemp, Andrew; Engelhart, Simon; Little, Chris

    2017-04-01

    The Common Era (CE) sea-level response to climate forcing, and its relationship to centennial-timescale climate variability such as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA), is fragmentary relative to other proxy-derived climate records (e.g. atmospheric surface temperature). However, the Atlantic coast of North America provides a rich sedimentary record of CE relative sea level with sufficient spatial and temporal resolution to inform mechanisms underlying regional and global sea level variability and their relationship to other climate proxies. This coast has a small tidal range, improving the precision of sea-level reconstructions. Coastal subsidence (from glacial isostatic adjustment, GIA) creates accommodation space that is filled by salt-marsh peat and preserves accurate and precise sea-level indicators and abundant material for radiocarbon dating. In addition to longer term GIA induced land-level change from ongoing collapse of the Laurentide forebulge, these records are ideally situated to capture climate-driven sea level changes. The western North Atlantic Ocean sea level is sensitive to static equilibrium effects from melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, as well as large-scale changes in ocean circulation and winds. Our reconstructions reveal two distinct patterns in sea-level during the CE along the United States Atlantic coast: (1) South of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, to Florida sea-level rise is essentially flat, with the record dominated by long-term geological processes until the onset of historic rates of rise in the late 19th century; (2) North of Cape Hatteras to Connecticut, sea level rise to maximum around 1000CE, a sea-level minimum around 1500 CE, and a long-term sea-level rise through the second half of the second millennium. The northern-intensified sea-level fall beginning 1000 is coincident with shifts toward persistent positive NAO-like atmospheric states inferred from other proxy records and is consistent with

  4. Synthesizing long-term sea level rise projections - the MAGICC sea level model v2.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nauels, Alexander; Meinshausen, Malte; Mengel, Matthias; Lorbacher, Katja; Wigley, Tom M. L.

    2017-06-01

    Sea level rise (SLR) is one of the major impacts of global warming; it will threaten coastal populations, infrastructure, and ecosystems around the globe in coming centuries. Well-constrained sea level projections are needed to estimate future losses from SLR and benefits of climate protection and adaptation. Process-based models that are designed to resolve the underlying physics of individual sea level drivers form the basis for state-of-the-art sea level projections. However, associated computational costs allow for only a small number of simulations based on selected scenarios that often vary for different sea level components. This approach does not sufficiently support sea level impact science and climate policy analysis, which require a sea level projection methodology that is flexible with regard to the climate scenario yet comprehensive and bound by the physical constraints provided by process-based models. To fill this gap, we present a sea level model that emulates global-mean long-term process-based model projections for all major sea level components. Thermal expansion estimates are calculated with the hemispheric upwelling-diffusion ocean component of the simple carbon-cycle climate model MAGICC, which has been updated and calibrated against CMIP5 ocean temperature profiles and thermal expansion data. Global glacier contributions are estimated based on a parameterization constrained by transient and equilibrium process-based projections. Sea level contribution estimates for Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are derived from surface mass balance and solid ice discharge parameterizations reproducing current output from ice-sheet models. The land water storage component replicates recent hydrological modeling results. For 2100, we project 0.35 to 0.56 m (66 % range) total SLR based on the RCP2.6 scenario, 0.45 to 0.67 m for RCP4.5, 0.46 to 0.71 m for RCP6.0, and 0.65 to 0.97 m for RCP8.5. These projections lie within the range of the latest IPCC SLR

  5. Sea Level Rise Impacts on Ramsar Wetlands of International Importance

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Sea Level Rise Impacts on Ramsar Wetlands of International Importance data set represents the results of an analysis using the boundaries for Ramsar sites...

  6. Overestimation of marsh vulnerability to sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirwan, Matthew L.; Temmerman, Stijn; Skeehan, Emily E.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Fagherazzi, Sergio

    2016-01-01

    Coastal marshes are considered to be among the most valuable and vulnerable ecosystems on Earth, where the imminent loss of ecosystem services is a feared consequence of sea level rise. However, we show with a meta-analysis that global measurements of marsh elevation change indicate that marshes are generally building at rates similar to or exceeding historical sea level rise, and that process-based models predict survival under a wide range of future sea level scenarios. We argue that marsh vulnerability tends to be overstated because assessment methods often fail to consider biophysical feedback processes known to accelerate soil building with sea level rise, and the potential for marshes to migrate inland.

  7. Climate Prediction Center Indonesia Sea Level Pressure (1949-present)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This is one of the CPC?s Monthly Atmospheric and SST Indices. It contains standardized sea level pressure anomalies over the equatorial Indonesia region...

  8. Sea level trend and variability in the Singapore Strait

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Tkalich, P.; Vethamony, P.; Luu, Q.-H.; Babu, M.T.

    of plus or minus 20 cm, the highest during northeast monsoon and the lowest during southwest monsoon. Interannual regional sea level drops are associated with El Nino events, while the rises are correlated with La Nina episodes; both variations...

  9. Coastal sea level rise with warming above 2 degree

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Jackson, Luke; Riva, Riccardo; Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John

    2017-04-01

    Two degrees global warming above the pre-industrial level has been suggested as an appropriate threshold beyond which climate change risks become unacceptably high. This '2 degree' threshold is likely to be reached between 2040 and 2050 for both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and 4.5. Resulting sea level rises will not be globally uniform due to ocean dynamical processes and changes in gravity associated with water mass-redistribution. Here we provide probabilistic sea level rise projections for the global coastline with warming above the 2 degree goal. We demonstrate that by 2040 with two degree warming under the RCP8.5 scenario more than 90% of coastal areas will experience sea level rise exceeding the global estimate of 0.2 m, with up to 0.4 m expected along the Atlantic coast of North America and Norway. If warming continues above two degree, then by 2100 sea level will rise with speeds unprecedented throughout human civilization, reaching 0.9 m (median), and 80% of the global coastline will exceed the global ocean sea level rise upper 95% confidence limit of 1.8 m. Coastal communities of rapidly expanding cities in the developing world, small island states, and vulnerable tropical coastal ecosystems will have a very limited time after mid-century to adapt to sea level rises.

  10. Assessing Flood Risk Under Sea Level Rise and Extreme Sea Levels Scenarios: Application to the Ebro Delta (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayol, J. M.; Marcos, M.

    2018-02-01

    This study presents a novel methodology to estimate the impact of local sea level rise and extreme surges and waves in coastal areas under climate change scenarios. The methodology is applied to the Ebro Delta, a valuable and vulnerable low-lying wetland located in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea. Projections of local sea level accounting for all contributions to mean sea level changes, including thermal expansion, dynamic changes, fresh water addition and glacial isostatic adjustment, have been obtained from regionalized sea level projections during the 21st century. Particular attention has been paid to the uncertainties, which have been derived from the spread of the multi-model ensemble combined with seasonal/inter-annual sea level variability from local tide gauge observations. Besides vertical land movements have also been integrated to estimate local relative sea level rise. On the other hand, regional projections over the Mediterranean basin of storm surges and wind-waves have been used to evaluate changes in extreme events. The compound effects of surges and extreme waves have been quantified using their joint probability distributions. Finally, offshore sea level projections from extreme events superimposed to mean sea level have been propagated onto a high resolution digital elevation model of the study region in order to construct flood hazards maps for mid and end of the 21st century and under two different climate change scenarios. The effect of each contribution has been evaluated in terms of percentage of the area exposed to coastal hazards, which will help to design more efficient protection and adaptation measures.

  11. Decadal sea-level changes in the Indian Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gangan, Nidheesh; Vialard, Jerome; Lengaingne, Matthieu; Izumo, Takeshi; Alakkatt, Unnikrishnan

    2017-04-01

    While the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) has been identified as the main driver of natural decadal sea-level variations in the Pacific, Indian Ocean natural decadal sea-level variability remains a largely uncharted territory. In this study, we analyse Indian Ocean natural decadal sea-level variations from a large set of observational products, CMIP3 and CMIP5 pre-industrial simulations. The various observational products display very consistent patterns of decadal sea-level variability in the Pacific, but not in the Indian Ocean, most likely because of sparse observational coverage in the IO. In contrast, almost all CMIP simulations display two very consistent patterns of Indian Ocean decadal sea-level variability, which explain a large part of the total sea-level variance in this basin. The first mode consists of a dipolar sea-level pattern, with negative signals in the eastern Indian Ocean from the west coast of Australia to the northern Bay of Bengal and positive signals northeast of Madagascar. This mode is largely driven by the wind variability related to the decadal variations of the Indian Ocean Dipole, which is partly independent from decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific. The second mode is completely independent from decadal Pacific variability, and consists of a broad sea-level pattern east of Madagascar. This mode is excited by decadal wind variations in the subtropical Indian Ocean, most likely associated with fluctuations of the Mascarene high. The two decadal modes identified in CMIP models are broadly consistent with those deduced from the relatively short altimeter dataset or from the longer ORA reanalysis. Sea-level reconstructions generally reproduce the dipolar mode but do not capture the decadal sea-level variability east of Madagascar, presumably because of the absence of long tide-gauge records in this region. This study hence illustrates that CMIP simulations can provide some guidance for identifying robust modes of

  12. A Holocene sea-level database for Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bender, Maren; Mann, Thomas; Stocchi, Paolo; Switzer, Adam; Horton, Benjamin P.; Lukman, Muhammad; Jompa, Jamaluddin; Rovere, Alessio

    2017-04-01

    The study of former relative sea-level (RSL) changes is essential to disentangle changes in sea level due to vertical land motion (e.g. tectonics, Glacial Isostatic Adjustment - GIA) and eustatic (e.g. ice equivalent sea level) causes. To study RSL changes at a regional scale it is essential that databases of sea-level indicators are produced following standardized protocols (Hijma et al., 2015). This has been already done in several regions (e.g. the US Atlantic coast, the Caribbean, or the Mediterranean (Engelhart and Horton, 2012) A database has been compiled for Southeast Asia but was limited in geographical extent and didn't include the influence of local process such as tidal range changes and compaction. Southeast Asia is highly vulnerable to relative sea level changes, as it is characterized by low-lying, densely populated islands and subsiding deltas. We present a database of Holocene sea-level histories in Southeast Asia and part of the Indo-Pacific from published and unpublished data, which has been evaluated and using a standardized protocol. We analyzed 526 sea level index points, defining their locations the height of former sea level and the age with their associated uncertainty. Radiocarbon ages were re-calibrated using Calib 7.0.0 / 7.1 (Stuiver et al., 2017) and the calibration curves Intcal13 or Marine13. In our database, we also indicated possible tectonic vertical land motion, and we present the results of GIA modelling for different areas in SE Asia. We also show regions of South East Asia and parts of the Indo-Pacific where there is an absence of data and where the collection of new RSL data is mostly needed.

  13. Adapting to Rising Sea Level: A Florida Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkinson, Randall W.

    2009-07-01

    Global climate change and concomitant rising sea level will have a profound impact on Florida's coastal and marine systems. Sea-level rise will increase erosion of beaches, cause saltwater intrusion into water supplies, inundate coastal marshes and other important habitats, and make coastal property more vulnerable to erosion and flooding. Yet most coastal areas are currently managed under the premise that sea-level rise is not significant and the shorelines are static or can be fixed in place by engineering structures. The new reality of sea-level rise and extreme weather due to climate change requires a new style of planning and management to protect resources and reduce risk to humans. Scientists must: (1) assess existing coastal vulnerability to address short term management issues and (2) model future landscape change and develop sustainable plans to address long term planning and management issues. Furthermore, this information must be effectively transferred to planners, managers, and elected officials to ensure their decisions are based upon the best available information. While there is still some uncertainty regarding the details of rising sea level and climate change, development decisions are being made today which commit public and private investment in real estate and associated infrastructure. With a design life of 30 yrs to 75 yrs or more, many of these investments are on a collision course with rising sea level and the resulting impacts will be significant. In the near term, the utilization of engineering structures may be required, but these are not sustainable and must ultimately yield to "managed withdrawal" programs if higher sea-level elevations or rates of rise are forthcoming. As an initial step towards successful adaptation, coastal management and planning documents (i.e., comprehensive plans) must be revised to include reference to climate change and rising sea-level.

  14. Building more effective sea level rise models for coastal management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kidwell, D.; Buckel, C.; Collini, R.; Meckley, T.

    2017-12-01

    For over a decade, increased attention on coastal resilience and adaptation to sea level rise has resulted in a proliferation of predictive models and tools. This proliferation has enhanced our understanding of our vulnerability to sea level rise, but has also led to stakeholder fatigue in trying to realize the value of each advancement. These models vary in type and complexity ranging from GIS-based bathtub viewers to modeling systems that dynamically couple complex biophysical and geomorphic processes. These approaches and capabilities typically have the common purpose using scenarios of global and regional sea level change to inform adaptation and mitigation. In addition, stakeholders are often presented a plethora of options to address sea level rise issues from a variety of agencies, academics, and consulting firms. All of this can result in confusion, misapplication of a specific model/tool, and stakeholder feedback of "no more new science or tools, just help me understand which one to use". Concerns from stakeholders have led to the question; how do we move forward with sea level rise modeling? This presentation will provide a synthesis of the experiences and feedback derived from NOAA's Ecological Effects of Sea level Rise (EESLR) program to discuss the future of predictive sea level rise impact modeling. EESLR is an applied research program focused on the advancement of dynamic modeling capabilities in collaboration with local and regional stakeholders. Key concerns from stakeholder engagement include questions about model uncertainty, approaches for model validation, and a lack of cross-model comparisons. Effective communication of model/tool products, capabilities, and results is paramount to address these concerns. Looking forward, the most effective predictions of sea level rise impacts on our coast will be attained through a focus on coupled modeling systems, particularly those that connect natural processes and human response.

  15. SEA-LEVEL RISE. Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutton, A; Carlson, A E; Long, A J; Milne, G A; Clark, P U; DeConto, R; Horton, B P; Rahmstorf, S; Raymo, M E

    2015-07-10

    Interdisciplinary studies of geologic archives have ushered in a new era of deciphering magnitudes, rates, and sources of sea-level rise from polar ice-sheet loss during past warm periods. Accounting for glacial isostatic processes helps to reconcile spatial variability in peak sea level during marine isotope stages 5e and 11, when the global mean reached 6 to 9 meters and 6 to 13 meters higher than present, respectively. Dynamic topography introduces large uncertainties on longer time scales, precluding robust sea-level estimates for intervals such as the Pliocene. Present climate is warming to a level associated with significant polar ice-sheet loss in the past. Here, we outline advances and challenges involved in constraining ice-sheet sensitivity to climate change with use of paleo-sea level records. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  16. Coupling of sea level and tidal range changes, with implications for future water levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devlin, Adam T; Jay, David A; Talke, Stefan A; Zaron, Edward D; Pan, Jiayi; Lin, Hui

    2017-12-05

    Are perturbations to ocean tides correlated with changing sea-level and climate, and how will this affect high water levels? Here, we survey 152 tide gauges in the Pacific Ocean and South China Sea and statistically evaluate how the sum of the four largest tidal constituents, a proxy for the highest astronomical tide (HAT), changes over seasonal and interannual time scales. We find that the variability in HAT is significantly correlated with sea-level variability; approximately 35% of stations exhibit a greater than ±50 mm tidal change per meter sea-level fluctuation. Focusing on a subset of three stations with long records, probability density function (PDF) analyses of the 95% percentile exceedance of total sea level (TSL) show long-term changes of this high-water metric. At Hong Kong, the increase in tides significantly amplifies the risk caused by sea-level rise. Regions of tidal decrease and/or amplification highlight the non-linear response to sea-level variations, with the potential to amplify or mitigate against the increased flood risk caused by sea-level rise. Overall, our analysis suggests that in many regions, local flood level determinations should consider the joint effects of non-stationary tides and mean sea level (MSL) at multiple time scales.

  17. Sea level change since 2005: importance of salinity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llovel, W.; Purkey, S.; Meyssignac, B.; Kolodziejczyk, N.; Blazquez, A.; Bamber, J. L.

    2017-12-01

    Sea level rise is one of the most important consequences of the actual global warming. Global mean sea level has been rising at a faster rate since 1993 (over the satellite altimetry era) than previous decades. This rise is expected to accelerate over the coming decades and century. At global scale, sea level rise is caused by a combination of freshwater increase from land ice melting and land water changes (mass component) and ocean warming (thermal expansion). Estimating the causes is of great interest not only to understand the past sea level changes but also to validate projections based on climate models. In this study, we investigate the global mass contribution to recent sea level changes with an alternative approach by estimating the global ocean freshening. For that purpose, we consider the unprecedented amount of salinity measurements from Argo floats for the past decade (2005-2015). We compare our results to the ocean mass inferred by GRACE data and based on a sea level budget approach. Our results bring new constrains on the global water cycle (ocean freshening) and energy budget (ocean warming) as well as on the global ocean mass directly inferred from GRACE data.

  18. Sea-Level Allowances along the World Coastlines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandewal, R.; Tsitsikas, C.; Reerink, T.; Slangen, A.; de Winter, R.; Muis, S.; Hunter, J. R.

    2017-12-01

    Sea level changes as a result of climate change. For projections we take ocean mass changes and volume changes into account. Including gravitational and rotational fingerprints this provide regional sea level changes. Hence we can calculate sea-level rise patterns based on CMIP5 projections. In order to take the variability around the mean state, which follows from the climate models, into account we use the concept of allowances. The allowance indicates the height a coastal structure needs to be increased to maintain the likelihood of sea-level extremes. Here we use a global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels based on a global hydrodynamic model in order to calculate allowances. It is shown that the model compares in most regions favourably with tide gauge records from the GESLA data set. Combining the CMIP5 projections and the global hydrodynamical model we calculate sea-level allowances along the global coastlines and expand the number of points with a factor 50 relative to tide gauge based results. Results show that allowances increase gradually along continental margins with largest values near the equator. In general values are lower at midlatitudes both in Northern and Southern Hemisphere. Increased risk for extremes are typically 103-104 for the majority of the coastline under the RCP8.5 scenario at the end of the century. Finally we will show preliminary results of the effect of changing wave heights based on the coordinated ocean wave project.

  19. Potential impact of sea level rise on French islands worldwide

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Celine Bellard

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Although sea level rise is one of the most certain consequences of global warming, yet it remains one of the least studied. Several studies strongly suggested that sea level rise will accelerate in the future with a potentially rise from 0.5 to 2 m at the end of the century. However, currently island conservation programs do not take into account the potential effects of sea level rise. Therefore, we investigated the potential consequences of sea level rise for 1,269 French islands worldwide, by assessing the total number of island that will be totally submerged for three different scenarios (1, 2 and 3 m. Under the worst scenario, up to 12% of all islands could be entirely submerged. Two regions displayed the most significant loss of island: New Caledonia and French Polynesia. Focusing on New Caledonia, we highlighted that endemic plant species that are already classified as critically endangered by the IUCN will be the most vulnerable to sea level rise. Losses of insular habitats will thus be important in the next decades for the French islands. Given that French islands covers all latitudes in the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic oceans and in the Mediterranean, our results suggested that the implications for the 180 000 islands around the world should be considerable. Therefore, decision makers are required to define island conservation priorities that will suffer of the future sea level rise.

  20. Nonlinear sea level trends from European tide gauge records

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. Barbosa

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available Mean sea level is a variable of considerable interest in meteorological and oceanographic studies, particularly long-term sea level variation and its relation to climate changes. This study concerns the analysis of monthly mean sea level data from tide gauge stations in the Northeast Atlantic with long and continuous records. Much research effort on mean sea level studies has been focused on identifying long-term linear trends, usually estimated through least-squares fitting of a deterministic function. Here, we estimate nonparametric and robust trends using lowess, a robust smoothing procedure based on locally weighted regression. This approach is more flexible than a linear trend to describe the deterministic part of the variation in tide gauge records, which has a complex structure. A common trend pattern of reduced sea levels around 1975 is found in all the analysed records and interpreted as the result of hydrological and atmospheric forcing associated with drought conditions at the tide gauge sites. This feature is overlooked by a linear regression model. Moreover, nonlinear deterministic behaviour in the time series, such as the one identified, introduces a bias in linear trends determined from short and noisy records.Key words. Oceanography: physical (sea level variations; Hydrology (water balance

  1. Extending the Instrumental Record of Sea-Level Change: A 1300-Year Sea-Level Record From Eastern Connecticut

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donnelly, J. P.; Cleary, P.

    2002-12-01

    The instrumental record of sea-level change in the northeastern United States extends back to the early 20th century and at New York City (NYC) extends back to 1856. These tide gauge records indicate that sea level has risen at a rate of 2.5 to 4 mm/year over the last 100-150 years. Geologic evidence of sea-level change in the region over the last 2,000 years indicates rates of sea-level rise of about 1 mm/year or less. The discordance between the instrumental and geologic records is frequently cited as potentially providing evidence that anthropogenic warming of the climate system has resulted in an increase in the rate of sea-level rise. In order to begin to test the hypothesis that acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise has occurred in the last 150 years due to anthropogenic climate warming, accurate and precise information on the timing of the apparent acceleration in sea-level rise are needed. Here we construct a high-resolution relative sea-level record for the past 1350 years by dating basal salt marsh peat samples above a glacial erratic in a western Connecticut salt marsh. Preservation of marsh vegetation remains in the sediment record that has a narrow vertical habitat range at the upper end of the tidal range provides information on past sea levels. { \\it Spartina patens} (marsh hay) and { \\it Juncus gerardi} (black rush) dominate both the modern marsh and their remains are the major constituent of the marsh sediments and occur in the modern marsh between mean high water (MHW) and mean highest high water. We use the elevation distribution of modern plant communities to estimate the relationship of sediment samples to paleo-mean high water. The chronology is based on 15 radiocarbon ages, supplemented by age estimates derived from the horizons of industrial Pb pollution and pollen indicative of European land clearance. Thirteen of the radiocarbon ages and the Pb and pollen data come from samples taken along a contact between marsh peat and a glacial

  2. Long-term sea level change in the Malaysian seas from multi-mission altimetry data

    OpenAIRE

    Din, A.H.; Omar, K.M.; Naeije, M.C.; Ses, S.

    2012-01-01

    The long-term sea level change during 1993 to 2008 was investigated in the Malaysian seas from satellite altimetry data of the TOPEX, JASON-1, ERS-1, ERS-2 and ENVISAT missions. Sea level data retrieval and reduction were carried out using the radar altimeter database system (RADS). In RADS data processing, the 2008 updated environmental and geophysical corrections were applied. Six 1° × 1° areas were chosen for the altimetry data comparison and to find the best ocean tide model for the Malay...

  3. The Enigma of 20th century sea level change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cathles, Larry

    2014-05-01

    Sea level has been constant at near-present levels from ~5500 calendar years BP to the end of the Little Ice Age at ~1860 AD. Since ~1900, tide gauge measurements indicate that it has risen steadily at ~2 mm/yr by about 18 cm. The comparative stability of sealevel from 5500 cal yr BP to 1860 AD is robust, being suggested by near-shore Mediterranean archeological sites, the few sea level records that extend back to 1700 AD, and the impossibility of projecting the current sea level rise of ~2 mm/y back 5000 years (it would produce a global 10 m inundation, which is not observed) (Douglas et al., 2001, Academic Press). The post 1870 sea level rise is not due to heating of the upper ocean (Liviticus et al., 2000, Science). Munk (2002, PNAS) characterized it as an "enigma", dismissing an upper ocean steric sea level explanation as "too little" (~3 cm), "too late" (the rise started in 1860), and "too linear" (not accelerating with the accelerating CO2 increase). GRACE gravity measurements show a near zero change in ocean mass. Cazenave et al. (2009, Global and Planetary Change) indicate a slight decrease in ocean mass between 2003 and 2008. The rate of meltwater mass being added to the oceans essentially equals the GIA correction (Chambers et al., 2010, JGR). Different GIA models give ocean mass increase ranging from 0.5 to 2 mm/y of equivalent sea level rise. Our GIA model suggests no ocean mass increases (~0 mm/y of equivalent sea level rise). In this talk I show that the heating of a two layer ocean model driven by the temperature changes that have occurred over the last 1000 years since the peak of the Medieval Warm Period produces a ~2mm/yr linear sea level rise over the last 100 years with much smaller preceding sea level changes. Ocean mass could be unchanging over the last century as well as the last ~5000 years. This result is compatible with GRACE measurements and eclipse data constraints, predictions of our GIA model, and it resolves the enigma the 20th

  4. Sea level: measuring the bounding surfaces of the ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamisiea, Mark E; Hughes, Chris W; Williams, Simon D P; Bingley, Richard M

    2014-09-28

    The practical need to understand sea level along the coasts, such as for safe navigation given the spatially variable tides, has resulted in tide gauge observations having the distinction of being some of the longest instrumental ocean records. Archives of these records, along with geological constraints, have allowed us to identify the century-scale rise in global sea level. Additional data sources, particularly satellite altimetry missions, have helped us to better identify the rates and causes of sea-level rise and the mechanisms leading to spatial variability in the observed rates. Analysis of all of the data reveals the need for long-term and stable observation systems to assess accurately the regional changes as well as to improve our ability to estimate future changes in sea level. While information from many scientific disciplines is needed to understand sea-level change, this review focuses on contributions from geodesy and the role of the ocean's bounding surfaces: the sea surface and the Earth's crust. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  5. Sea level: measuring the bounding surfaces of the ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamisiea, Mark E.; Hughes, Chris W.; Williams, Simon D. P.; Bingley, Richard M.

    2014-01-01

    The practical need to understand sea level along the coasts, such as for safe navigation given the spatially variable tides, has resulted in tide gauge observations having the distinction of being some of the longest instrumental ocean records. Archives of these records, along with geological constraints, have allowed us to identify the century-scale rise in global sea level. Additional data sources, particularly satellite altimetry missions, have helped us to better identify the rates and causes of sea-level rise and the mechanisms leading to spatial variability in the observed rates. Analysis of all of the data reveals the need for long-term and stable observation systems to assess accurately the regional changes as well as to improve our ability to estimate future changes in sea level. While information from many scientific disciplines is needed to understand sea-level change, this review focuses on contributions from geodesy and the role of the ocean's bounding surfaces: the sea surface and the Earth's crust. PMID:25157196

  6. Sea level changes along the Turkish coasts of the Black Sea, the Aegean Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. ALPAR

    2000-06-01

    On the average, there is a pronounced sea-level difference (55 cm along the Turkish Straits System. However, the slope is nonlinear, being much steeper in the Strait of Istanbul. This barotrophic pressure difference is one of the most important factors causing the two-layer flow through the system. The topography and hydrodynamics of the straits, the dominant wind systems and their seasonal variations make this flow more complicated. For secular sea level changes, a rise of 3.2 mm/a was computed for Karsiyaka (1935-71 and a steady trend (-0.4 mm /a has been observed for annual sea levels at Antalya (1935-77. The decreasing trend (-6.9 mm/a at Samsun is contrary to the secular rising trend of the Black Sea probably because of its rather short monitoring period (1963-77.

  7. The absolute structure of ptilosarcenone 2.5-hydrate, a diterpenoid briarane from the orange sea pen Ptilosarcus gurneyi (Gray

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elaine Tran

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available In the title compound, C24H29ClO8·2.5H2O, which contains two organic molecules (A and B and five heavily disordered water molecules in the asymmetric unit, the γ-lactone ring and the cyclohexenone ring are both trans-fused to the central cyclodecene ring. The cyclehexenone ring features an α,β-unsaturated ketone with torsion angles between the conjugated carbonyl and alkene bonds of 0.6 (3 and 7.4 (4° for molecules A and B, respectively. The ptilosarcenone torsion angles between conjugated alkene bonds are 56.2 (5 and 55.4 (6° for A and B, respectively. In the crystal, the components are linked by O—H...O hydrogen bonds. The absolute configuration of ptilosarcenone was determined unambiguously and exhibits similar absolute stereochemistry to that found in the crystal structures of other octocoralline briaranes.

  8. Estimating absolute sea level variations by combining GNSS and Tide gauge data

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Bos, M.S.; Fernandes, R.M.S; Vethamony, P.; Mehra, P.

    . Using the GNSS properties of two inland stations, Hyderabad and Bangalore, as a proxy of the noise observed at the coastal stations, we conclude that around 5 years of observations are required to estimate the vertical land motion with an accuracy...

  9. Detailed Tropical Sea Level Record Spanning the Younger Dryas Chronozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdul, N. A.; Mortlock, R. A.; Wright, J. D.; Fairbanks, R. G.

    2010-12-01

    Variability in sea level is a fundamental measure of past changes in continental ice volume and provides an important benchmark to test climate change hypotheses. Records of the most recent deglaciation show two pulses of accelerated sea-level rise (Meltwater Pulses 1A and 1B) separated by an interval of slower sea level rise. The Younger Dryas chronozone falls within the interval between MWP 1A and 1B. It was first described over 100 years ago and remains one of the most studied periods in Earth’s history. The Younger Dryas was originally constrained with 14C dating to the interval between 11,000 and 10,000 14C years BP, which converts to 13,000 to 11,640 calendar years BP. The climatic expression of the Younger Dryas was most pronounced in the circum North Atlantic where climate proxies returned in some regions to near glacial values. Interpretations of the Younger Dryas’ significance range from a catastrophic global cooling event accompanied by Northern hemisphere ice sheet growth to simply regional changes in ocean and air mass mixing zones confined mainly to the North Atlantic. A detailed sea level record containing the interval from the end of MWP 1A to the beginning of MWP 1B (~14,000 to 11,300 years BP) was generated using 26 new U/Th dates from our 2007 Barbados offshore drilling expedition combined with our 1988 expedition measurements. 16 of these dates fall within the Younger Dryas Chronozone. Younger Dryas sea level positions were based on Acropora palmata samples from 3 overlapping and contemporaneous offshore drill cores (RGF 12 and BBDS 9 & 10) and corrected for minor tectonic uplift. From 14,000 to 11,300 years BP, sea level rose from ~81 to 56.5 m below present sea level with an initial rate of 10 m/kyr that decreased smoothly to <5 m/kyr at the base of MWP 1B. At the beginning of the Younger Dryas, sea level was at 69 m below present and rose 8 m by the end of this interval. In the context of the Barbados sea level record, the Younger Dryas

  10. How Much Are Floridians Willing to Pay for Protecting Sea Turtles from Sea Level Rise?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamed, Ahmed; Madani, Kaveh; Von Holle, Betsy; Wright, James; Milon, J Walter; Bossick, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    Sea level rise (SLR) is posing a great inundation risk to coastal areas. Some coastal nesting species, including sea turtle species, have experienced diminished habitat from SLR. Contingent valuation method (CVM) was used in an effort to assess the economic loss impacts of SLR on sea turtle nesting habitats for Florida coasts; and to elicit values of willingness to pay (WTP) of Central Florida residents to implement certain mitigation strategies, which would protect Florida's east coast sea turtle nesting areas. Using the open-ended and dichotomous choice CVM, we sampled residents of two Florida communities: Cocoa Beach and Oviedo. We estimated the WTP of households from these two cities to protect sea turtle habitat to be between $42 and $57 per year for 5 years. Additionally, we attempted to assess the impact of the both the respondents' demographics and their perception toward various situations on their WTP value. Findings include a negative correlation between the age of a respondent and the probability of an individual willing to pay the hypothetical WTP amount. We found that WTP of an individual was not dependent on prior knowledge of the effects of SLR on sea turtle habitat. The greatest indicators of whether or not an individual was willing to pay to protect sea turtle habitat were the respondents' perception regarding the trustworthiness and efficiency of the party which will implement the conservation measures and their confidence in the conservation methods used. Respondents who perceive sea turtles having an effect on their life were also more likely to pay.

  11. History of Aral Sea level variability and current scientific debates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cretaux, Jean-François; Letolle, René; Bergé-Nguyen, Muriel

    2013-11-01

    The Aral Sea has shrunk drastically over the past 50 years, largely due to water abstraction from the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers for land irrigation. Over a longer timescale, Holocene palaeolimnological reconstruction of variability in water levels of the Aral Sea since 11,700 BP indicates a long history of alternating phases of regression and transgression, which have been attributed variously to climate, tectonic and anthropogenic forcing. The hydrological history of the Aral Sea has been investigated by application of a variety of scientific approaches, including archaeology, palaeolimnological palaeoclimate reconstruction, geophysics, sedimentology, and more recently, space science. Many issues concerning lake level variability over the Holocene and more recent timescales, and the processes that drive the changes, are still a matter for active debate. Our aim in this article is to review the current debates regarding key issues surrounding the causes and magnitude of Aral Sea level variability on a variety of timescales from months to thousands of years. Many researchers have shown that the main driving force of Aral Sea regressions and transgressions is climate change, while other authors have argued that anthropogenic forcing is the main cause of Aral Sea water level variations over the Holocene. Particular emphasis is made on contributions from satellite remote sensing data in order to improve our understanding of the influence of groundwater on the current hydrological water budget of the Aral Sea since 2005. Over this period of time, water balance computation has been performed and has shown that the underground water inflow to the Aral Sea is close to zero with an uncertainty of 3 km3/year.

  12. Confidence and sensitivity of sea-level reconstructions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svendsen, Peter Limkilde

    For the last two decades, satellite altimetry has provided a near-global view of spatial and temporal patterns in sea surface height (SSH). When combined with records from tide gauges, a historical reconstruction of sea level can be obtained; while tide gauge records span up to 200 years back, th......'s basic performance can be relatively easily assessed. This means that we will consider only the last 5060 years of sea level data. This is a preliminary analysis to pave the way for an improved reconstruction in the Arctic area, a major focus of my PhD project.......For the last two decades, satellite altimetry has provided a near-global view of spatial and temporal patterns in sea surface height (SSH). When combined with records from tide gauges, a historical reconstruction of sea level can be obtained; while tide gauge records span up to 200 years back......, their combined quality for reconstruction purposes is limited by the sparsity of their geographical distribution and other factors. We examine both a traditional EOF analysis of sea surface height, and another method known as minimum/maximum autocorrelation factors (MAF), which takes into account the spatial...

  13. Sea Level Rise and Land Subsidence Contributions to the Signals from the Tide Gauges of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Albert

    2016-06-01

    The tide gauges measure the local oscillations of the sea level vs. the tide gauge instrument. The tide gauge instrument is generally subjected to the general subsidence or uplift of the nearby inland, plus some additional subsidence for land compaction and other localised phenomena. The paper proposes a non-linear model of the relative sea level oscillations including a long term trend for the absolute sea level rise, another term for the subsidence of the instrument, and finally a sinusoidal approximation for the cyclic oscillations of periodicities up to decades. This non-linear model is applied to the tide gauges of China. The paper shows that the limited information available for China does not permit to infer any proper trend for the relative rates of rise, as the tide gauge records are all short or incomplete and the vertical movement of the tide gauge instruments is unassessed. The only tide gauge record of sufficient length that may be assembled for China is obtained by combining the North Point and Quarry Bay tide gauges in Hong Kong (NPQB). This NQPB composite tide gauge record is shown to have similarities with the tide gauge records of Sydney, equally in the West pacific, and San Diego, in the east Pacific, oscillating about the longer term trend mostly determined by the local subsidence. As it is very well known that China generally suffers of land subsidence, and the tide gauge installations may suffer of additional subsidence vs. the inland, it may be concluded from the analysis of the other worldwide tide gauges that the sea levels of China are very likely rising about the same amount of the subsidence of the tide gauges, with the sea level acceleration component still negligible.

  14. Applying sea-level indicators to validate reconstructions of relative sea level during the last glacial termination phase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klemann, V.; Latinović, M.; Thomas, M.; Unger, A.

    2017-12-01

    Observations of sea-level variations allow the validation of numerical models applied to reconstruct past and predict future sea-level change. Sea-level indicators (SLIs) are used as the main source for deriving relative sea-level (RSL) variations on time scales for which tide-gauge and satellite measurements are not available. However, the leveling of an SLI relative to present sea level does not provide a direct measure of former RSL, but only an indication according to the conditions under which the sample was deposited. This information depends on the sample type as on its environment and has to be mapped to RSL by an appropriate transfer function. The data itself has to be extracted by an objective procedure from primary information or data compilations usually provided in geological or paleontological literature of different primary focus, quality and detail. In addition to the height information, the precision of dating varies between different indicators and in case of radiocarbon-dated material, the ages have to furthermore calibrated. Likelihood functions are derived from the indicative meaning of different SLI types and dating uncertainties in order to evaluate model-based sea-level predictions against geological inference. This procedure is accompanied by applying the visual analytics tool SLIVISU developed at GFZ-Potsdam. This tool allows access to a relational database system where all meta information of compiled sea-level indicators are provided as well as the combination with model predictions at location and age of the respective SLIs. In this regard it serves as a tool to validate the model results and impact of the indicators regarding their spatial-temporal context. This study is part of the 'German Paleo-Climate Modelling Initiative' (PalMod).

  15. Holocene sea level, a semi-empirical contemplation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bittermann, Klaus; Kemp, Andrew; Vermeer, Martin; Rahmstorf, Stefan

    2017-04-01

    Holocene eustatic sea level from approximately -10,000-1800 CE was characterized by an increase of about 60 m, with the rate progressively slowing down until sea level almost stabilizes between 500-1800 CE. Global and northern-hemisphere temperatures rose from the last glacial termination until the 'Holocene Optimum'. From there, up to the start of the recent anthropogenic rise, they almost steadily decline. How are the sea-level and temperature evolutions linked? We investigate this with a semi-empirical sea-level model. We found that, due to the nature of Milankovitch forcing, northern-hemisphere temperature (we used the Greenland temperature by Vinther et al., 2009) is a better model driver than global mean temperature because the evolving mass of northern-hemisphere land ice was the dominant cause of Holocene global sea-level trends. The adjustment timescale for this contribution is 1200 years (900-1500 years; 90% confidence interval). To fit the observed sea-level history, the model requires a small additional constant rate (Bittermann 2016). This rate turns out to be of the same order of magnitude as reconstructions of Antarctic sea-level contributions (Briggs et al. 2014, Golledge et al. 2014). In reality this contribution is unlikely to be constant but rather has a dominant timescale that is large compared to the time considered. We thus propose that Holocene sea level can be described by a linear combination of a temperature driven rate, which becomes negative in the late Holocene (as Northern Hemisphere ice masses are diminished), and a positive, approximately constant term (possibly from Antarctica), which starts to dominate from the middle of the Holocene until the start of industrialization. Bibliography: Bittermann, K. 2016. Semi-empirical sea-level modelling. PhD Thesis University of Potsdam. Briggs, R.D., Pollard, D., & Tarasov, L. 2014. A data-constrained large ensemble analysis of Antarctic evolution since the Eemian. Quaternary science reviews

  16. Holocene sea level, a semi-empirical contemplation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bittermann, K.; Kemp, A.; Vermeer, M.; Rahmstorf, S.

    2017-12-01

    Holocene eustatic sea level from approximately -10,000-1800 CE was characterized by an increase of about 60m, with the rate progressively slowing down until sea level almost stabilizes between 500-1800 CE. Global and northern-hemisphere temperatures rose from the last glacial termination until the `Holocene Optimum'. From ­­there, up to the start of the recent anthropogenic rise, they almost steadily decline. How are the sea-level and temperature evolutions linked? We investigate this with semi-empirical sea-level models. We found that, due to the nature of Milankovitch forcing, northern-hemisphere temperature (we used the Greenland temperature by Vinther et al., 2009) is a better model driver than global mean temperature because the evolving mass of northern-hemisphere land ice was the dominant cause of Holocene global sea-level trends. The adjustment timescale for this contribution is 1200 years (900-1500 years; 90% confidence interval). To fit the observed sea-level history, the model requires a small additional constant rate (Bittermann 2016). This rate turns out to be of the same order of magnitude as reconstructions of Antarctic sea-level contributions (Briggs et al. 2014, Golledge et al. 2014). In reality this contribution is unlikely to be constant but rather has a dominant timescale that is large compared to the time considered. We thus propose that Holocene sea level can be described by a linear combination of a temperature driven rate, which becomes negative in the late Holocene (as Northern Hemisphere ice masses are diminished), and a positive, approximately constant term (possibly from Antarctica), which starts to dominate from the middle of the Holocene until the start of industrialization. Bibliography: Bittermann, K. 2016. Semi-empirical sea-level modelling. PhD Thesis University of Potsdam. Briggs, R.D., et al. 2014. A data-constrained large ensemble analysis of Antarctic evolution since the Eemian. Quaternary science reviews, 103, 91

  17. A 500 kyr record of global sea-level oscillations in the Gulf of Lion, Mediterranean Sea: new insights into MIS 3 sea-level variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Frigola

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Borehole PRGL1-4 drilled in the upper slope of the Gulf of Lion provides an exceptional record to investigate the impact of late Pleistocene orbitally-driven glacio-eustatic sea-level oscillations on the sedimentary outbuilding of a river fed continental margin. High-resolution grain-size and geochemical records supported by oxygen isotope chronostratigraphy allow reinterpreting the last 500 ka upper slope seismostratigraphy of the Gulf of Lion. Five main sequences, stacked during the sea-level lowering phases of the last five glacial-interglacial 100-kyr cycles, form the upper stratigraphic outbuilding of the continental margin. The high sensitivity of the grain-size record down the borehole to sea-level oscillations can be explained by the great width of the Gulf of Lion continental shelf. Sea level driven changes in accommodation space over the shelf cyclically modified the depositional mode of the entire margin. PRGL1-4 data also illustrate the imprint of sea-level oscillations at millennial time-scale, as shown for Marine Isotopic Stage 3, and provide unambiguous evidence of relative high sea-levels at the onset of each Dansgaard-Oeschger Greenland warm interstadial. The PRGL1-4 grain-size record represents the first evidence for a one-to-one coupling of millennial time-scale sea-level oscillations associated with each Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle.

  18. Mechanisms of variability in decadal sea-level trends in the Baltic Sea over the 20th century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karabil, Sitar; Zorita, Eduardo; Hünicke, Birgit

    2017-11-01

    Coastal sea-level trends in the Baltic Sea display decadal-scale variations around a long-term centennial trend. In this study, we analyse the spatial and temporal characteristics of the decadal trend variations and investigate the links between coastal sea-level trends and atmospheric forcing on a decadal timescale. For this analysis, we use monthly means of sea-level and climatic data sets. The sea-level data set is composed of long tide gauge records and gridded sea surface height (SSH) reconstructions. Climatic data sets are composed of sea-level pressure, air temperature, precipitation, evaporation, and climatic variability indices. The analysis indicates that atmospheric forcing is a driving factor of decadal sea-level trends. However, its effect is geographically heterogeneous. This impact is large in the northern and eastern regions of the Baltic Sea. In the southern Baltic Sea area, the impacts of atmospheric circulation on decadal sea-level trends are smaller. To identify the influence of the large-scale factors other than the effect of atmospheric circulation in the same season on Baltic Sea sea-level trends, we filter out the direct signature of atmospheric circulation for each season separately on the Baltic Sea level through a multivariate linear regression model and analyse the residuals of this regression model. These residuals hint at a common underlying factor that coherently drives the decadal sea-level trends in the whole Baltic Sea. We found that this underlying effect is partly a consequence of decadal precipitation trends in the Baltic Sea basin in the previous season. The investigation of the relation between the AMO index and sea-level trends implies that this detected underlying factor is not connected to oceanic forcing driven from the North Atlantic region.

  19. Impact of sea level rise on tide gate function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Sean; Miskewitz, Robert

    2013-01-01

    Sea level rise resulting from climate change and land subsidence is expected to severely impact the duration and associated damage resulting from flooding events in tidal communities. These communities must continuously invest resources for the maintenance of existing structures and installation of new flood prevention infrastructure. Tide gates are a common flood prevention structure for low-lying communities in the tidal zone. Tide gates close during incoming tides to prevent inundation from downstream water propagating inland and open during outgoing tides to drain upland areas. Higher downstream mean sea level elevations reduce the effectiveness of tide gates by impacting the hydraulics of the system. This project developed a HEC-RAS and HEC-HMS model of an existing tide gate structure and its upland drainage area in the New Jersey Meadowlands to simulate the impact of rising mean sea level elevations on the tide gate's ability to prevent upstream flooding. Model predictions indicate that sea level rise will reduce the tide gate effectiveness resulting in longer lasting and deeper flood events. The results indicate that there is a critical point in the sea level elevation for this local area, beyond which flooding scenarios become dramatically worse and would have a significantly negative impact on the standard of living and ability to do business in one of the most densely populated areas of America.

  20. COASTAL SENSITIVITY TO SEA LEVEL RISE: A FOCUS ON ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.1 will synthesize information from the ongoing mapping efforts by federal and non-federal researchers related to the implications of rising sea level. It will overlay the various data layers to develop new results made possible by bringing together researchers that are otherwise working independently. Because of time, data, and resource limitations, the synthesis will focus on a contiguous portion of the U.S. coastal zone (New York to North Carolina). The report will also develop a plan for sea level rise research to answer the questions that are most urgent for near-term decisionmaking. This report will address the implications of sea level rise on three spatial scales by providing: • A literature review that puts the report within the nationwide context. • Data overlays and a state-of-the-art quantitative assessment concerning coastal elevations, shore erosion, and wetland accretion for a multi-state study area along the U.S. Atlantic Coast: New York to North Carolina. • Qualitative discussions and case studies that document in greater detail the impact of sea level rise on smaller areas within the mid-Atlantic study area. This report will provide information that supports the specific goal in Chapter 9 of the Strategic Plan for the Climate Change Science Program (CCSP, 2003) to analyze how coastal environmental programs can be improved to adapt to sea level rise while enhancing economic growth.

  1. Cenozoic sea level and the rise of modern rimmed atolls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toomey, Michael; Ashton, Andrew; Raymo, Maureen E.; Perron, J. Taylor

    2016-01-01

    Sea-level records from atolls, potentially spanning the Cenozoic, have been largely overlooked, in part because the processes that control atoll form (reef accretion, carbonate dissolution, sediment transport, vertical motion) are complex and, for many islands, unconstrained on million-year timescales. Here we combine existing observations of atoll morphology and corelog stratigraphy from Enewetak Atoll with a numerical model to (1) constrain the relative rates of subsidence, dissolution and sedimentation that have shaped modern Pacific atolls and (2) construct a record of sea level over the past 8.5 million years. Both the stratigraphy from Enewetak Atoll (constrained by a subsidence rate of ~ 20 m/Myr) and our numerical modeling results suggest that low sea levels (50–125 m below present), and presumably bi-polar glaciations, occurred throughout much of the late Miocene, preceding the warmer climate of the Pliocene, when sea level was higher than present. Carbonate dissolution through the subsequent sea-level fall that accompanied the onset of large glacial cycles in the late Pliocene, along with rapid highstand constructional reef growth, likely drove development of the rimmed atoll morphology we see today.

  2. A chronology of Paleozoic sea-level changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haq, Bilal U; Schutter, Stephen R

    2008-10-03

    Sea levels have been determined for most of the Paleozoic Era (542 to 251 million years ago), but an integrated history of sea levels has remained unrealized. We reconstructed a history of sea-level fluctuations for the entire Paleozoic by using stratigraphic sections from pericratonic and cratonic basins. Evaluation of the timing and amplitude of individual sea-level events reveals that the magnitude of change is the most problematic to estimate accurately. The long-term sea level shows a gradual rise through the Cambrian, reaching a zenith in the Late Ordovician, then a short-lived but prominent withdrawal in response to Hirnantian glaciation. Subsequent but decreasingly substantial eustatic highs occurred in the mid-Silurian, near the Middle/Late Devonian boundary, and in the latest Carboniferous. Eustatic lows are recorded in the early Devonian, near the Mississippian/Pennsylvanian boundary, and in the Late Permian. One hundred and seventy-two eustatic events are documented for the Paleozoic, varying in magnitude from a few tens of meters to approximately 125 meters.

  3. Improving sea level record in arctic using ENVISAT altimeter measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thibaut, Pierre; Poisson, Jean-Christophe; Hoang, Duc; Quartly, Graham; Kurekin, Andrey

    2015-04-01

    The Arctic is an important component of the climate system whose exact influence on ocean circulation is still poorly understood today. This region is also very sensitive to global warming and some direct consequences like melting ice are particularly visible. In this context, extending the knowledge of the sea level variability as far as possible in the Arctic Ocean is a valuable contribution to the understanding of rapid changes occurring in this region. Due to a particularly complex and unstable environment, ocean observation is challenging considering that sea level measurements can be widely corrupted by the presence of sea ice in the altimeter footprint. In the framework of the ESA Sea Level Climate Change Initiative project, new algorithms have been developed and implemented to process 10 years of ENVISAT altimeter data over the Arctic Ocean and to improve the sea level measurement in this region. The new processing chain contains three main steps. The first task consists in identifying altimetric returns for which a standard proven estimation processing may be used, and in flagging those requiring more sophisticated processing. This will include introducing a novel approach that uses the relationship with neighbouring waveforms to aid in the identification of key reflecting surfaces. The second task consists in applying estimators that performs better in situations where sea-ice covers partially or totally the observed surface. The last task consists in investigating the transition zones to make sure that no artificial discontinuities are introduced by the different processing and to reduce these discontinuities. We propose in this talk, to explain and illustrate the different steps of this study and to show important figures of improvement regarding the estimation of sea level variability in the Arctic Ocean.

  4. Interactions of Estuarine Shoreline Infrastructure With Multiscale Sea Level Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ruo-Qian; Herdman, Liv M.; Erikson, Li; Barnard, Patrick; Hummel, Michelle; Stacey, Mark T.

    2017-12-01

    Sea level rise increases the risk of storms and other short-term water-rise events, because it sets a higher water level such that coastal surges become more likely to overtop protections and cause floods. To protect coastal communities, it is necessary to understand the interaction among multiday and tidal sea level variabilities, coastal infrastructure, and sea level rise. We performed a series of numerical simulations for San Francisco Bay to examine two shoreline scenarios and a series of short-term and long-term sea level variations. The two shoreline configurations include the existing topography and a coherent full-bay containment that follows the existing land boundary with an impermeable wall. The sea level variability consists of a half-meter perturbation, with duration ranging from 2 days to permanent (i.e., sea level rise). The extent of coastal flooding was found to increase with the duration of the high-water-level event. The nonlinear interaction between these intermediate scale events and astronomical tidal forcing only contributes ˜1% of the tidal heights; at the same time, the tides are found to be a dominant factor in establishing the evolution and diffusion of multiday high water events. Establishing containment at existing shorelines can change the tidal height spectrum up to 5%, and the impact of this shoreline structure appears stronger in the low-frequency range. To interpret the spatial and temporal variability at a wide range of frequencies, Optimal Dynamic Mode Decomposition is introduced to analyze the coastal processes and an inverse method is applied to determine the coefficients of a 1-D diffusion wave model that quantify the impact of bottom roughness, tidal basin geometry, and shoreline configuration on the high water events.

  5. Sea-level rise risks to coastal cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, Robert J.

    2017-04-01

    Understanding the consequence of sea-level rise for coastal cities has long lead times and huge political implications. Civilisation has emerged and developed during a period of several thousand years during which in geological terms sea level has been unusually stable. We have now moved out of this period and the challenge will be to develop a long-term proactive assessment approach to manage this challenge. In 2005 there were 136 coastal cities with a population exceeding one million people and a collective population of 400 million people. All these coastal cities are threatened by flooding from the sea to varying degrees and these risks are increasing due to growing exposure (people and assets), rising sea levels due to climate change, and in some cities, significant coastal subsidence due to human agency (drainage and groundwater withdrawals from susceptible soils). In these cities we wish to avoid major flood events, with associated damage and potentially deaths and ultimately decline of the cities. Flood risks grow with sea-level rise as it raises extreme sea levels. As sea levels continue to rise, protection will have to be progressively upgraded. Even with this, the magnitude of losses when flood events do occur would increase as coastal cities expand, and water depths and hence unit damage increase with sea-level rise/subsidence. This makes it critical to also prepare for larger coastal flood disasters than we experience today and raises questions on the limits to adaptation. There is not an extensive literature or significant empirical information on the limits to adaptation in coastal cities. These limits are not predictable in a formal sense - while the rise in mean sea level raises the likelihood of a catastrophic flood, extreme events are what cause damage and trigger a response, be it abandonment, a defence upgrade or something else. There are several types of potential limits that could be categorised into three broad types: • Physical

  6. Reef response to sea-level and environmental changes during the last deglaciation. IODP Expedition 310 'Tahiti Sea Level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camoin, Gilbert

    2010-05-01

    The last deglaciation has been characterized by a rapid sea-level rise and coeval abrupt environmental changes. The Barbados coral reef record suggested that this period has been punctuated by two brief intervals of accelerated melting (Melt Water Pulses), occurring at 14,000 and 11,300 cal. yr. BP, superimposed on a smooth and continuous rise of sea level. Although their timing, their magnitude, or even their existence have been actively debated, those catastrophic sea-level rises are thought to have induced distinct reef drowning events. The reef response to sea-level and environmental changes during the last deglacial sea-level rise at Tahiti is reconstructed based on a chronological, sedimentological and paleobiological study of cores drilled through the relict reef features occurring on the modern fore-reef slopes during the IODP Expedition 310. Changes in the composition of coralgal assemblages coincide with abrupt variations in reef growth rates and characterize the response of the upward-growing reef pile to a non-monotonous sea-level rise and coeval environmental changes. No major break in reef development occurred between 16,000 and 10,000 cal. yr. BP. Reefs accreted mostly through aggradational processes at growth rates averaging 10 mm yr-1, thus precluding any catastrophic impact on reef development such as the temporary cessation of reef growth as it was reported in the Barbados record. An incipient drowning and a general backstepping of the reef complex have been evidenced during the 14,600-13,900 cal. yr. BP time window implying that reef growth gradually lagged behind sea-level rise.

  7. Impact of Altimeter Data Processing on Sea Level Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clara Lázaro

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available This study addresses the impact of satellite altimetry data processing on sea levelstudies at regional scale, with emphasis on the influence of various geophysical correctionsand satellite orbit on the structure of the derived interannual signal and sea level trend. Thework focuses on the analysis of TOPEX data for a period of over twelve years, for threeregions in the North Atlantic: Tropical (0o≤φ≤25o, Sub-Tropical (25o≤φ≤50o and Sub-Arctic (50o≤φ≤65o. For this analysis corrected sea level anomalies with respect to a meansea surface model have been derived from the GDR-Ms provided by AVISO by applyingvarious state-of-the-art models for the geophysical corrections. Results show that sea leveltrend determined from TOPEX altimetry is dependent on the adopted models for the majorgeophysical corrections. The main effects come from the sea state bias (SSB, and from theapplication or not of the inverse barometer (IB correction. After an appropriate modellingof the TOPEX A/B bias, the two analysed SSB models induce small variations in sea leveltrend, from 0.0 to 0.2 mm/yr, with a small latitude dependence. The difference in sea leveltrend determined by a non IB-corrected series and an IB-corrected one has a strong regionaldependence with large differences in the shape of the interannual signals and in the derivedlinear trends. The use of two different drift models for the TOPEX Microwave Radiometer(TMR has a small but non negligible effect on the North Atlantic sea level trend of about0.1 mm/yr. The interannual signals of sea level time series derived with the NASA and theCNES orbits respectively, show a small departure in the middle of the series, which has noimpact on the derived sea level trend. These results strike the need for a continuousimprovement in the modelling of the various effects that influence the altimetermeasurement.

  8. Correlation of the severity of atopic dermatitis with absolute eosinophil counts in peripheral blood and serum IgE levels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dhar Sandipan

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Although a number of epidemiological studies, showing incidence and prevalence of atopic dermatitis, were available, scant attention has been paid to the correlation between the parameters of the disease like severity, absolute eosinophil count and IgE level, which has been known to be associated inconsistently. Hence this study was undertaken. METHODS: A total of 102 patients of atopic dermatitis, both children and adults, and 107 age matched controls were studied at the Pediatric Dermatology clinic, Institute of Child Health and department of Dermatology, AMRI-Apollo hospitals, Kolkata. RESULTS: The average age of onset of atopic dermatitis was observed to be 4.55 years. Both the average absolute eosinophil count and IgE levels in patients of atopic dermatitis were significantly higher than that of the controls. Each of these parameters showed significant correlation with severity of the disease and showed a nonhomogeneous distribution reflected by significant association with personal history of bronchial asthma and family history of atopy, when both parents were atopic. CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows that clinical activity of the disease as recorded by the "SCORAD" index can be used as an indicator of the hematological abnormalities as well as to some extent as a prognostic indicator. Family history of atopy correlates with the hematological abnormalities only if both parents are involved and bronchial asthma is the only associated atopic condition which correlates with the parameters of the disease .

  9. Rising sea level may cause decline of fringing coral reefs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, Michael E.; Ogston, Andrea S.; Storlazzi, Curt D.

    2011-01-01

    Coral reefs are major marine ecosystems and critical resources for marine diversity and fisheries. These ecosystems are widely recognized to be at risk from a number of stressors, and added to those in the past several decades is climate change due to anthropogenically driven increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. Most threatening to most coral reefs are elevated sea surface temperatures and increased ocean acidity [e.g., Kleypas et al., 1999; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2007], but sea level rise, another consequence of climate change, is also likely to increase sedimentary processes that potentially interfere with photosynthesis, feeding, recruitment, and other key physiological processes (Figure 1). Anderson et al. [2010] argue compellingly that potential hazardous impacts to coastlines from 21st-century sea level rise are greatly underestimated, particularly because of the rapid rate of rise. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that sea level will rise in the coming century (1990–2090) by 2.2–4.4 millimeters per year, when projected with little contribution from melting ice [Meehl et al., 2007]. New studies indicate that rapid melting of land ice could substantially increase the rate of sea level rise [Grinsted et al., 2009; Milne et al., 2009].

  10. The Significance of Rising Sea Levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conway, Gregory J.

    1989-01-01

    Describes an activity in which students graph changes in tides and ocean levels over a period in order to obtain a visual representation of the changes taking place and their effects upon the Earth. Provides questions for students to answer after construction of the graphs. (RT)

  11. Changes in Holocene relative sea-level and coastal morphology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hede, Mikkel Ulfeldt; Sander, Lasse; Clemmensen, Lars B

    2015-01-01

    Changes in relative sea-level (RSL) during the Holocene are reconstructed based on ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data collected across a raised beach ridge system on the island of Samsø, Denmark. The internal architecture of the beach ridge and swale deposits is divided into characteristic radar...... facies. We identify downlap points interpreted to mark the transition from the beachface to the upper shoreface and, thus, sea-level at the time of deposition. This new data set shows that beach steps can be preserved and resolved in GPR reflection data. This is important, as downlap points identified...... at the base of the beach steps should be corrected for beach step height in order to be used as a marker of sea-level. Identification of beach steps in combination with observed changes in dips of the interpreted beachface reflections can give information about changes in the morphodynamic conditions of beach...

  12. Detecting sea-level hazards: Simple regression-based methods for calculating the acceleration of sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doran, Kara S.; Howd, Peter A.; Sallenger,, Asbury H.

    2016-01-04

    This report documents the development of statistical tools used to quantify the hazard presented by the response of sea-level elevation to natural or anthropogenic changes in climate and ocean circulation. A hazard is a physical process (or processes) that, when combined with vulnerability (or susceptibility to the hazard), results in risk. This study presents the development and comparison of new and existing sea-level analysis methods, exploration of the strengths and weaknesses of the methods using synthetic time series, and when appropriate, synthesis of the application of the method to observed sea-level time series. These reports are intended to enhance material presented in peer-reviewed journal articles where it is not always possible to provide the level of detail that might be necessary to fully support or recreate published results.

  13. Last Deglacial Sea Level: A Curated Database of Indicators of Past Sea Levels from Biological and Geomorphological Archives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hibbert, F. D.; Williams, F. H.; Fallon, S.; Rohling, E. J.

    2017-12-01

    The last deglacial was an interval of rapid climate and sea-level change, including the collapse of large continental ice sheets. This database collates carefully assessed sea-level data from peer-reviewed sources for the interval 0 to 25 thousand years ago (ka), from the last glacial maximum to the present interglacial conditions. In addition to facilitating site-specific reconstructions of past sea levels, the database provides a suite of data beyond the range of modern/instrumental variability that may help hone future sea-level projections. The database is global in scope, internally consistent, and contains U-series and radiocarbon dated indicators from both biological and geomorpohological archives. We focus on far-field data (i.e., away from the sites of the former continental ice sheets), but some key intermediate (i.e., from the Caribbean) data are also included. All primary fields (i.e., sample location, elevation, age and context) possess quantified uncertainties, which - in conjunction with available metadata - allows the reconstructed sea levels to be interpreted within both their uncertainties and geological context. Consistent treatment of each of the individual records in the database, and incorporation of fully expressed uncertainties, allows datasets to be easily compared. The compilation contains 145 studies from 40 locations (>2,000 data points) and includes all raw information and metadata.

  14. Coastal flooding by tropical cyclones and sea-level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodruff, Jonathan D; Irish, Jennifer L; Camargo, Suzana J

    2013-12-05

    The future impacts of climate change on landfalling tropical cyclones are unclear. Regardless of this uncertainty, flooding by tropical cyclones will increase as a result of accelerated sea-level rise. Under similar rates of rapid sea-level rise during the early Holocene epoch most low-lying sedimentary coastlines were generally much less resilient to storm impacts. Society must learn to live with a rapidly evolving shoreline that is increasingly prone to flooding from tropical cyclones. These impacts can be mitigated partly with adaptive strategies, which include careful stewardship of sediments and reductions in human-induced land subsidence.

  15. Uncertainties in sea level projections on twenty-year timescales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinogradova, Nadya; Davis, James; Landerer, Felix; Little, Chris

    2016-04-01

    Regional decadal changes in sea level are governed by various processes, including ocean dynamics, gravitational and solid earth responses, mass loss of continental ice, and other local coastal processes. In order to improve predictions and physical attribution in decadal sea level trends, the uncertainties of each processes must be reflected in the sea level calculations. Here we explore uncertainties in predictions of the decadal and bi-decadal changes in regional sea level induced by the changes in ocean dynamics and associated redistribution of heat and freshwater (often referred to as dynamic sea level). Such predictions are typically based on the solutions from coupled atmospheric and oceanic general circulation models, including a suite of climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercompasion Project (CMIP5). Designed to simulate long-term ocean variability in response to warming climate due to increasing green-house gas concentration ("forced" response), CMIP5 are deficient in simulating variability at shorter time scales. In contrast, global observations of sea level are available during a relatively short time span (e.g., twenty-year altimetry records), and are dominated by an "unforced" variability that occurs freely (internally) within the climate system. This makes it challenging to examine how well observations compare with model simulations. Therefore, here we focus on patterns and spatial characteristics of projected twenty-year trends in dynamic sea level. Based on the ensemble of CMIP5 models, each comprising a 240-year run, we compute an envelope of twenty-year rates, and analyze the spread and spatial relationship among predicted rates. An ensemble root-mean-square average exhibits large-scale spatial patterns, with the largest uncertainties found over mid and high latitudes that could be attributed to the changes in wind patterns and buoyancy forcing. To understand and parameterize spatial characteristics of the

  16. Minimizing the Levelized Cost of Energy in Single-Phase Photovoltaic Systems with an Absolute Active Power Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yang, Yongheng; Koutroulis, Eftichios; Sangwongwanich, Ariya

    2015-01-01

    Several countries with considerable PhotoVoltaic (PV) installations are facing a challenge of overloading the power infrastructure during peak-power production hours. Regulations have been imposed on the PV systems, where more active power control should be flexibly performed. As an advanced...... control strategy, the Absolute Active Power Control (AAPC) can effectively solve the overloading issues by limiting the maximum possible PV power to a certain level (i.e., the power limitation), and also benefit the inverter reliability. However, its feasibility is challenged by the energy loss....... An increase of the inverter lifetime and a reduction of the energy yield can alter the cost of energy, demanding an optimization of the power limitation. Therefore, aiming at minimizing the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE), the power limit is optimized for the AAPC strategy in this paper. The optimization...

  17. Sea-Level Rise by 2100

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Church, J.A; Clark, P.A; Cazenave, A; Gregory, J.M.; Jevrejeva, S.; Levermann, A; Merrifield, M.A; Milne, G.A.; Nerem, R.S.; Nunn, P.D.; Payne, A.J.; Pfeffer, W.T.; Stammer, D.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.

    because “there is currently insuffi cient evidence to evaluate the probability of specifi c levels above the assessed ‘likely’ range.” The upper boundary of the AR5 “likely” range should not be misconstrued as a worst-case upper limit, as was done... VOL 342 20 DECEMBER 2013 1445 LETTERS edited by Jennifer Sills 1462 COMMENTARY LETTERS I BOOKS I POLICY FORUM I EDUCATION FORUM I PERSPECTIVES 1452 Defending the nest IBI Prize Essay C R E D IT : A N D R E W M A N D E M A K E R /W IK IM E...

  18. Short Lived Climate Pollutants cause a Long Lived Effect on Sea-level Rise: Analyzing climate metrics for sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterner, E.; Johansson, D. J.

    2013-12-01

    utilizes an upwelling diffusion energy balance model and focuses on the thermosteric part of sea-level rise. Example GSP results are 244, 15 and 278 for BC, CH4 and N2O for a time horizon of 100 years. Compare GWP and GTP values of 405, 24 and 288 as well as 62, 4.5 and 252. The main result of the study is that no climate forcer is in any absolute sense short lived when it comes to Sea Level impacts. All of the examined climate forcers have considerable influence on the thermosteric SLR, and the closely linked ocean heat content, on the time scale of centuries. The reason for this is that heat, once it has been induced by the climate drivers and warmed the surface ocean, is transported down into the slowly mixing oceans. References: Shindell, D. et al. Simultaneously mitigating near-term climate change and improving human health and food security. Science 335, 183-189 (2012). Bond, T. C. et al. Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 118 5380-5552 (2013). Hu, A., Xu, Y., Tebaldi, C., Washington, W. M. & Ramanathan, V. Mitigation of short-lived climate pollutants slows sea-level rise. Nature Climate Change 3, 730-734 (2013).

  19. Accelerated sea level rise and Florida Current transport

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Park

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The Florida Current is the headwater of the Gulf Stream and is a component of the North Atlantic western boundary current from which a geostrophic balance between sea surface height and mass transport directly influence coastal sea levels along the Florida Straits. A linear regression of daily Florida Current transport estimates does not find a significant change in transport over the last decade; however, a nonlinear trend extracted from empirical mode decomposition (EMD suggests a 3 Sv decline in mean transport. This decline is consistent with observed tide gauge records in Florida Bay and the straits exhibiting an acceleration of mean sea level (MSL rise over the decade. It is not known whether this recent change represents natural variability or the onset of the anticipated secular decline in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC; nonetheless, such changes have direct impacts on the sensitive ecological systems of the Everglades as well as the climate of western Europe and eastern North America.

  20. Synthesizing long-term sea level rise projections – the MAGICC sea level model v2.0

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Nauels

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Sea level rise (SLR is one of the major impacts of global warming; it will threaten coastal populations, infrastructure, and ecosystems around the globe in coming centuries. Well-constrained sea level projections are needed to estimate future losses from SLR and benefits of climate protection and adaptation. Process-based models that are designed to resolve the underlying physics of individual sea level drivers form the basis for state-of-the-art sea level projections. However, associated computational costs allow for only a small number of simulations based on selected scenarios that often vary for different sea level components. This approach does not sufficiently support sea level impact science and climate policy analysis, which require a sea level projection methodology that is flexible with regard to the climate scenario yet comprehensive and bound by the physical constraints provided by process-based models. To fill this gap, we present a sea level model that emulates global-mean long-term process-based model projections for all major sea level components. Thermal expansion estimates are calculated with the hemispheric upwelling-diffusion ocean component of the simple carbon-cycle climate model MAGICC, which has been updated and calibrated against CMIP5 ocean temperature profiles and thermal expansion data. Global glacier contributions are estimated based on a parameterization constrained by transient and equilibrium process-based projections. Sea level contribution estimates for Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are derived from surface mass balance and solid ice discharge parameterizations reproducing current output from ice-sheet models. The land water storage component replicates recent hydrological modeling results. For 2100, we project 0.35 to 0.56 m (66 % range total SLR based on the RCP2.6 scenario, 0.45 to 0.67 m for RCP4.5, 0.46 to 0.71 m for RCP6.0, and 0.65 to 0.97 m for RCP8.5. These projections lie within the

  1. Global Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Level Rise Estimation with Optimal Historical Time Lag Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustafa M. Aral

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Prediction of global temperatures and sea level rise (SLR is important for sustainable development planning of coastal regions of the world and the health and safety of communities living in these regions. In this study, climate change effects on sea level rise is investigated using a dynamic system model (DSM with time lag on historical input data. A time-invariant (TI-DSM and time-variant dynamic system model (TV-DSM with time lag is developed to predict global temperatures and SLR in the 21st century. The proposed model is an extension of the DSM developed by the authors. The proposed model includes the effect of temperature and sea level states of several previous years on the current temperature and sea level over stationary and also moving scale time periods. The optimal time lag period used in the model is determined by minimizing a synthetic performance index comprised of the root mean square error and coefficient of determination which is a measure for the reliability of the predictions. Historical records of global temperature and sea level from 1880 to 2001 are used to calibrate the model. The optimal time lag is determined to be eight years, based on the performance measures. The calibrated model was then used to predict the global temperature and sea levels in the 21st century using a fixed time lag period and moving scale time lag periods. To evaluate the adverse effect of greenhouse gas emissions on SLR, the proposed model was also uncoupled to project the SLR based on global temperatures that are obtained from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC emission scenarios. The projected SLR estimates for the 21st century are presented comparatively with the predictions made in previous studies.

  2. Sea-level rise: towards understanding local vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmstorf, Stefan

    2012-06-01

    Projections of global sea-level rise into the future have become more pessimistic over the past five years or so. A global rise by more than one metre by the year 2100 is now widely accepted as a serious possibility if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated. That is witnessed by the scientific assessments that were made since the last IPCC report was published in 2007. The Delta Commission of the Dutch government projected up to 1.10 m as a 'high-end' scenario (Vellinga et al 2009). The Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) projected up to 1.40 m (Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research 2009), and the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) gives a range of 0.90-1.60 m in its 2011 report (Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme 2011). And recently the US Army Corps of Engineers recommends using a 'low', an 'intermediate' and a 'high' scenario for global sea-level rise when planning civil works programmes, with the high one corresponding to a 1.50 m rise by 2100 (US Army Corps of Engineers 2011). This more pessimistic view is based on a number of observations, most importantly perhaps the fact that sea level has been rising at least 50% faster in the past decades than projected by the IPCC (Rahmstorf et al 2007, IPCC 2007). Also, the rate of rise (averaged over two decades) has accelerated threefold, from around 1 mm yr-1 at the start of the 20th century to around 3 mm yr-1 over the past 20 years (Church and White 2006), and this rate increase closely correlates with global warming (Rahmstorf et al 2011). The IPCC projections, which assume almost no further acceleration in the 20th century, thus look less plausible. And finally the observed net mass loss of the two big continental ice sheets (Van den Broeke et al 2011) calls into question the assumption that ice accumulation in Antarctica would largely balance ice loss from Greenland in the course of further global warming (IPCC 2007). With such a serious sea-level rise on the horizon

  3. A new Arctic 25-year Altimetric Sea-level Record (1992-2016) and Initial look at Arctic Sea Level Budget Closure

    OpenAIRE

    Andersen O.B., Passaro M., Benveniste J., Piccioni G.

    2016-01-01

    A new initiative within the ESA Sea Level Climate Change initiative (SL-cci) framework to improve the Arctic sea level record has been initiated as a combined effort to reprocess and retrack past altimetry to create a 25-year combined sea level record for sea level research studies. One of the objectives is to retracked ERS-2 dataset for the high latitudes based on the ALES retracking algorithm through adapting the ALES retracker for retracking of specular surfaces (leads). Secondly a reproce...

  4. Is an absolute level of cortical beta suppression required for proper movement? Magnetoencephalographic evidence from healthy aging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heinrichs-Graham, Elizabeth; Wilson, Tony W

    2016-07-01

    Previous research has connected a specific pattern of beta oscillatory activity to proper motor execution, but no study to date has directly examined how resting beta levels affect motor-related beta oscillatory activity in the motor cortex. Understanding this relationship is imperative to determining the basic mechanisms of motor control, as well as the impact of pathological beta oscillations on movement execution. In the current study, we used magnetoencephalography (MEG) and a complex movement paradigm to quantify resting beta activity and movement-related beta oscillations in the context of healthy aging. We chose healthy aging as a model because preliminary evidence suggests that beta activity is elevated in older adults, and thus by examining older and younger adults we were able to naturally vary resting beta levels. To this end, healthy younger and older participants were recorded during motor performance and at rest. Using beamforming, we imaged the peri-movement beta event-related desynchronization (ERD) and extracted virtual sensors from the peak voxels, which enabled absolute and relative beta power to be assessed. Interestingly, absolute beta power during the pre-movement baseline was much stronger in older relative to younger adults, and older adults also exhibited proportionally large beta desynchronization (ERD) responses during motor planning and execution compared to younger adults. Crucially, we found a significant relationship between spontaneous (resting) beta power and beta ERD magnitude in both primary motor cortices, above and beyond the effects of age. A similar link was found between beta ERD magnitude and movement duration. These findings suggest a direct linkage between beta reduction during movement and spontaneous activity in the motor cortex, such that as spontaneous beta power increases, a greater reduction in beta activity is required to execute movement. We propose that, on an individual level, the primary motor cortices have an

  5. Reef response to sea-level and environmental changes during the last deglaciation. IODP Expedition 310 "Tahiti Sea Level".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camoin, G.; Seard, C.; Deschamps, P.; Webster, J.; Abbey, E.; Braga, J. C.; Durand, N.; Bard, E.; Hamelin, B.; Yokoyama, Y.

    2009-04-01

    The last deglaciation have been characterized by a rapid sea-level rise and coeval abrupt environmental changes. The Barbados coral reef record suggested that this period has been punctuated by two brief intervals of accelerated melting (Melt Water Pulses), occurring at 14,000 and 11,300 cal-yr-BP, superimposed on a smooth and continuous rise of sea level. Although the timing, the amplitude or even the realities of those periods of accelerated sea-level rise have been actively debated, those catastrophic sea-level rises are thought to have induced reef drowning events. The reef response to sea-level and environmental changes during the last deglacial sea-level rise at Tahiti is reconstructed based on a chronological, sedimentological and paleobiological study of cores drilled through the relict reef features occurring on the modern fore-reef slopes during the IODP Expedition 310. Changes in the composition of coralgal assemblages coincide with abrupt variations in reef growth rates and characterize the response of the upward-growing reef pile to a non-monotonous sea-level rise and coeval environmental changes. No major break in reef development occurred during between 16,000 and 10,000 cal-yr-BP when reefs accreted mostly through aggradational processes at growth rates averaging 10mm.yr-1, thus precluding any catastrophic impact on reef development such as the temporary cessation of reef growth as it was reported in the Barbados record. An incipient drowning and a general backstepping of the reef complex have been evidenced during the 14,600-13,900 cal-yr-BP time window implying that reef growth gradually lagged behind sea-level rise. Acknowlegments This work has been made possible thanks to the support both from the European Science Foundation (ESF) under the EUROCORES Programme EuroMARC (contract No. ERAS-CT-2003-980409 of the European Commission, DG Research, FP6) and from the CNRS-INSU through the « ECLIPSE » Programme.

  6. The Offlap Break Position Vs Sea Level: A Discussion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tropeano, M.; Pieri, P.; Pomar, L.; Sabato, L.

    Sedimentary lithosomes with subhorizontal topsets, basinward prograding foresets and subhorizontal bottomsets are common in the geologic record, and most of them display similar bedding architectures and/or seismic reflection patterns (i.e. Gylbert- type deltas and shelf wedges). Nevertheless, in shallow marine settings these bodies may form in distinct sedimentary environments and they result from different sed- imentary processes. The offlap break (topset edge) occurs in relation to the posi- tion of baselevel and two main groups of lithosomes can be differentiated with re- spect to the position of the offlap break within the shelf profile. The baselevel of the first group is the sea level (or lake level); the topsets are mainly composed by continental- or very-shallow-water sedimentary facies and the offlap break practi- cally corresponds to the shoreline. Exemples of these lithosomes are high-constructive deltas (river-dominated deltas) and prograding beaches. For the second group, base- level corresponds to the base of wave/tide traction, and their topsets are mostly composed by shoreface/nearshore deposits. Examples of these lithosomes are high- destructive deltas (wave/tide-dominated deltas) and infralittoral prograding wedges (i.e Hernandez-Molina et al., 2000). The offlap break corresponds to the shelf edge (shoreface edge), which is located at the transition between nearshore and offshore set- tings, where a terrace prodelta- or transition-slope may develop (Pomar &Tropeano, 2001). Two main problems derive from these alternative interpretations of shallow- marine seaward prograding lithosomes: 1) both in ancient sedimentary shallow-marine successios (showing seaward prograding foresets) and in high resolution seismic pro- files (showing shelf wedges), the offlap break is commonly considered to correspond to the sea-level (shoreline) and used to inferr paleo sea-level positions and to construct sea-level curves. Without a good facies control, this use of

  7. Vulnerability of wastewater infrastructure of coastal cities to sea level ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study investigates the vulnerability of the wastewater collection and disposal infrastructure (i.e. pipelines and manholes, pumping stations and wastewater treatment plants) to sea-level rise in eThekwini Municipality, South Africa. By using geographical information systems (GIS) and a multi-criteria analysis considering ...

  8. Guiding Users to Sea Level Change Data Through Content

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quach, N.; Abercrombie, S. P.; Boening, C.; Brennan, H. P.; Gill, K. M.; Greguska, F. R., III; Huang, T.; Jackson, R.; Larour, E. Y.; Shaftel, H.; Tenenbaum, L. F.; Zlotnicki, V.; Boeck, A.; Moore, B.; Moore, J.

    2017-12-01

    The NASA Sea Level Change Portal (https://sealevel.nasa.gov) is an immersive and innovative web portal for sea level change research that addresses the needs of diverse audiences, from scientists across disparate disciplines to the general public to policy makers and businesses. Since sea level change research involves vast amounts of data from multiple fields, it becomes increasingly important to come up with novel and effective ways to guide users to the data they need. News articles published on the portal contains links to relevant data. The Missions section highlights missions and projects as well as provide a logical grouping of the data. Tools available on the portal, such as the Data Analysis Tool, a data visualization and high-performance environment for sea level analysis, and the Virtual Earth System Laboratory, a 3D simulation application, describes and links to the source data. With over 30K Facebook followers and over 23K Twitter follower, the portal outreach team also leverages social media to guide users to relevant data. This presentation focuses on how the portal uses news articles, mission and project pages, tools, and social media to connect users to the data.

  9. Ice sheets and sea level: thinking outside the box

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Broeke, M.R.; Bamber, J.; Lenaerts, J.T.M.; Rignot, Eric

    2011-01-01

    Until quite recently, the mass balance (MB) of the great ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica was poorly known and often treated as a residual in the budget of oceanic mass and sea level change. Recent developments in regional climate modelling and remote sensing, especially altimetry, gravimetry

  10. Vulnerability of wastewater infrastructure of coastal cities to sea level ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Sea-level rise is one of the consequences of global warming that has the potential to affect the infrastructure of coastal urban areas. In this context, it is important to perform vulnerability assessments in order to understand how this infrastruc- ture may be at risk, and, if necessary, adapt and maintain functionality of ...

  11. The Changing Global Climate and its Implication on Sea Level ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Abstract— Global mean sea levels show a general rising trend that has been accelerated by the recent changes in world climate. This is ascertained through geological and historical records, measurements from in situ tide gauges around the globe and since 1992, through satellite altimetry. About 60% of the 34 tide gauge ...

  12. Integrating conservation costs into sea level rise adaptive conservation prioritization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingjian Zhu

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Biodiversity conservation requires strategic investment as resources for conservation are often limited. As sea level rises, it is important and necessary to consider both sea level rise and costs in conservation decision making. In this study, we consider costs of conservation in an integrated modeling process that incorporates a geomorphological model (SLAMM, species habitat models, and conservation prioritization (Zonation to identify conservation priorities in the face of landscape dynamics due to sea level rise in the Matanzas River basin of northeast Florida. Compared to conservation priorities that do not consider land costs in the analysis process, conservation priorities that consider costs in the planning process change significantly. The comparison demonstrates that some areas with high conservation values might be identified as lower priorities when integrating economic costs in the planning process and some areas with low conservation values might be identified as high priorities when considering costs in the planning process. This research could help coastal resources managers make informed decisions about where and how to allocate conservation resources more wisely to facilitate biodiversity adaptation to sea level rise.

  13. Responding to changes in sea level: engineering implications

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    National Research Council Staff; Marine Board; Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems; Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences; National Research Council

    1987-01-01

    ... Mean Sea Level Marine Board Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems National Research Council National Academy Press Washington, D.C. 1987 Copyrightthe cannot be not from book, paper however, version for formatting, original authoritative the typesetting-specific the as from created publication files XML from other this and of recom...

  14. Sea Level Activities and Changes on the Islands of the

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    countries outside the region now form part of the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS). ... One of the most likely consequences of global ...... N .A.; Tooley, M. and Possnert, G., 2004. New perspective for the future of the Maldives. Global and planetary change, 40, ppl77~182. Nerem, RS. and Mitchum, GT, 2002.

  15. Seasonal sea level variability and anomalies in the Singapore Strait

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Tkalich, P.; Vethamony, P.; Babu, M.T.; Pokratath, P.

    years determined from satellite and in situ observations. Science 294, 840–842. Carton, J.A., Giese, B.S., Grodsky, S.A., 2005. Sea level rise and the warming of the oceans in the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) ocean reanalysis. J...

  16. Sea Level Change and Coastal Climate Services: The Way Forward

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gonéri Le Cozannet

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available For many climate change impacts such as drought and heat waves, global and national frameworks for climate services are providing ever more critical support to adaptation activities. Coastal zones are especially in need of climate services for adaptation, as they are increasingly threatened by sea level rise and its impacts, such as submergence, flooding, shoreline erosion, salinization and wetland change. In this paper, we examine how annual to multi-decadal sea level projections can be used within coastal climate services (CCS. To this end, we review the current state-of-the art of coastal climate services in the US, Australia and France, and identify lessons learned. More broadly, we also review current barriers in the development of CCS, and identify research and development efforts for overcoming barriers and facilitating their continued growth. The latter includes: (1 research in the field of sea level, coastal and adaptation science and (2 cross-cutting research in the area of user interactions, decision making, propagation of uncertainties and overall service architecture design. We suggest that standard approaches are required to translate relative sea level information into the forms required to inform the wide range of relevant decisions across coastal management, including coastal adaptation.

  17. Annual mean sea level and its sensitivity to wind climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerkema, Theo; Duran Matute, Matias

    2017-04-01

    Changes in relative mean sea level affect coastal areas in various ways, such as the risk of flooding, the evolution of barrier island systems, or the development of salt marshes. Long-term trends in these changes are partly masked by variability on shorter time scales. Some of this variability, for instance due to wind waves and tides (with the exception of long-period tides), is easily averaged out. In contrast, inter-annual variability is found to be irregular and large, of the order of several decimeters, as is evident from tide gauge records. This is why the climatic trend, typically of a few millimeters per year, can only be reliably identified by examining a record that is long enough to outweigh the inter-annual and decadal variabilities. In this presentation we examine the relation between the annual wind conditions from meteorological records and annual mean sea level along the Dutch coast. To do this, we need reliable and consistent long-term wind records. Some wind records from weather stations in the Netherlands date back to the 19th century, but they are unsuitable for trend analysis because of changes in location, height, surroundings, instrument type or protocol. For this reason, we will use only more recent, homogeneous wind records, from the past two decades. The question then is whether such a relatively short record is sufficient to find a convincing relation with annual mean sea level. It is the purpose of this work to demonstrate that the answer is positive and to suggest methods to find and exploit such a relation. We find that at the Dutch coast, southwesterly winds are dominant in the wind climate, but the west-east direction stands out as having the highest correlation with annual mean sea level. For different stations in the Dutch Wadden Sea and along the coast, we find a qualitatively similar pattern, although the precise values of the correlations vary. The inter-annual variability of mean sea level can already be largely explained by

  18. The Influence of Wind and Basin Eddies in Controlling Sea Level Variations in the Coastal Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Abualnaja, Yasser

    2015-04-01

    Sea level variations in the central Red Sea coastal zone span a range of roughly 1.2 m. Though relatively small, these water level changes can significantly impact the environment over the shallow reef tops prevalent in the central Red Sea, altering the water depth by a factor or two or more. Roughly half of the coastal sea level variance in central Red Sea is due to elevation changes in an \\'intermediate\\' frequency band, with periods between 2 days and 1 month. We examined the sea level signal in this band using the data from pressure sensors maintained for more than five years at a number of locations in Saudi Arabian coastal waters between 20.1 and 23.5 oN. We find that the intermediate-band sea level variations are strongly correlated with the local wind stress measured at a meteorological buoy. The maximum pressure-wind correlation occurs at wind direction closely aligned with the alongshore orientation and at a lag (wind leading) of 45 hr, which is consistent with the expected response of the coastal sea level to local wind forcing. However, less than half of the sea level variance in the intermediate band is related, through linear correlation, with local wind forcing. Our analysis indicates that the residual coastal sea level signal, not associated with wind forcing, is largely driven remotely by the passage of mesoscale eddies, revealed by satellite altimeter-derived sea level anomaly fields of the central Red Sea. These eddy-driven coastal sea level changes occur on time scales of 10-30 days. They span a range of 0.5 m, and thus constitute an import component of the sea level signal in the coastal Red Sea.

  19. Comparison Of Vented And Absolute Pressure Transducers For Water-Level Monitoring In Hanford Site Central Plateau Wells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mcdonald, J.P.

    2011-01-01

    Automated water-level data collected using vented pressure transducers deployed in Hanford Site Central Plateau wells commonly display more variability than manual tape measurements in response to barometric pressure fluctuations. To explain this difference, it was hypothesized that vented pressure transducers installed in some wells are subject to barometric pressure effects that reduce water-level measurement accuracy. Vented pressure transducers use a vent tube, which is open to the atmosphere at land surface, to supply air pressure to the transducer housing for barometric compensation so the transducer measurements will represent only the water pressure. When using vented transducers, the assumption is made that the air pressure between land surface and the well bore is in equilibrium. By comparison, absolute pressure transducers directly measure the air pressure within the wellbore. Barometric compensation is achieved by subtracting the well bore air pressure measurement from the total pressure measured by a second transducer submerged in the water. Thus, no assumption of air pressure equilibrium is needed. In this study, water-level measurements were collected from the same Central Plateau wells using both vented and absolute pressure transducers to evaluate the different methods of barometric compensation. Manual tape measurements were also collected to evaluate the transducers. Measurements collected during this study demonstrated that the vented pressure transducers over-responded to barometric pressure fluctuations due to a pressure disequilibrium between the air within the wellbores and the atmosphere at land surface. The disequilibrium is thought to be caused by the relatively long time required for barometric pressure changes to equilibrate between land surface and the deep vadose zone and may be exacerbated by the restriction of air flow between the well bore and the atmosphere due to the presence of sample pump landing plates and well caps. The

  20. COMPARISON OF VENTED AND ABSOLUTE PRESSURE TRANSDUCERS FOR WATER-LEVEL MONITORING IN HANFORD SITE CENTRAL PLATEAU WELLS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    MCDONALD JP

    2011-09-08

    Automated water-level data collected using vented pressure transducers deployed in Hanford Site Central Plateau wells commonly display more variability than manual tape measurements in response to barometric pressure fluctuations. To explain this difference, it was hypothesized that vented pressure transducers installed in some wells are subject to barometric pressure effects that reduce water-level measurement accuracy. Vented pressure transducers use a vent tube, which is open to the atmosphere at land surface, to supply air pressure to the transducer housing for barometric compensation so the transducer measurements will represent only the water pressure. When using vented transducers, the assumption is made that the air pressure between land surface and the well bore is in equilibrium. By comparison, absolute pressure transducers directly measure the air pressure within the wellbore. Barometric compensation is achieved by subtracting the well bore air pressure measurement from the total pressure measured by a second transducer submerged in the water. Thus, no assumption of air pressure equilibrium is needed. In this study, water-level measurements were collected from the same Central Plateau wells using both vented and absolute pressure transducers to evaluate the different methods of barometric compensation. Manual tape measurements were also collected to evaluate the transducers. Measurements collected during this study demonstrated that the vented pressure transducers over-responded to barometric pressure fluctuations due to a pressure disequilibrium between the air within the wellbores and the atmosphere at land surface. The disequilibrium is thought to be caused by the relatively long time required for barometric pressure changes to equilibrate between land surface and the deep vadose zone and may be exacerbated by the restriction of air flow between the well bore and the atmosphere due to the presence of sample pump landing plates and well caps. The

  1. Impact of accelerated future global mean sea level rise on hypoxia in the Baltic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, H. E. M.; Höglund, A.; Eilola, K.; Almroth-Rosell, E.

    2017-07-01

    Expanding hypoxia is today a major threat for many coastal seas around the world and disentangling its drivers is a large challenge for interdisciplinary research. Using a coupled physical-biogeochemical model we estimate the impact of past and accelerated future global mean sea level rise (GSLR) upon water exchange and oxygen conditions in a semi-enclosed, shallow sea. As a study site, the Baltic Sea was chosen that suffers today from eutrophication and from dead bottom zones due to (1) excessive nutrient loads from land, (2) limited water exchange with the world ocean and (3) perhaps other drivers like global warming. We show from model simulations for the period 1850-2008 that the impacts of past GSLR on the marine ecosystem were relatively small. If we assume for the end of the twenty-first century a GSLR of +0.5 m relative to today's mean sea level, the impact on the marine ecosystem may still be small. Such a GSLR corresponds approximately to the projected ensemble-mean value reported by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. However, we conclude that GSLR should be considered in future high-end projections (>+1 m) for the Baltic Sea and other coastal seas with similar hydrographical conditions as in the Baltic because GSLR may lead to reinforced saltwater inflows causing higher salinity and increased vertical stratification compared to present-day conditions. Contrary to intuition, reinforced ventilation of the deep water does not lead to overall improved oxygen conditions but causes instead expanded dead bottom areas accompanied with increased internal phosphorus loads from the sediments and increased risk for cyanobacteria blooms.

  2. Analysis of Flood Risk Due to Sea Level Rise in the Menor Sea (Murcia, Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Martínez-Graña

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This article analyzes the coastal vulnerability and flood risk due to sea level rise in the Menor Sea, Murcia (Spain. The vulnerability has been estimated from Sentinel-2 and Landsat 8 satellite imagery using Remote Sensing techniques. The risk of coastal flooding was calculated based on various time scenarios (X0-current, X1-100 years, X2-500 years, X3-1000 years, X4-Storm, X5-Tsunami. Geographic Information System and Remote Sensing techniques were used to build a regional model to predict changes in the mean sea level for several future scenarios, showing susceptible areas to be flooded. We have included new parameters to the model such as swell, mareal range or neotectonic factors aiming to better adjust it to the local conditions. The results showed a high risk of flooding in the barrier beach and coastal areas of the Menor Sea, with a medium to very high degree of vulnerability for the most populated and touristic areas. The maximum and minimum expected increase of the water sheet for the 100 year scenarios ranged from +4.22 to +5.69 m. This methodology can establish sectors that need structural measures to minimize the impact of the sea level rise occurring due to natural tendency in the short or long term, as well as by extreme events such as storm surges or tsunamis. Furthermore, it can be used in other areas to assist land management decision makers to reduce or mitigate the vulnerability and risk presented against the rise of the sea level.

  3. On the eigenperiods in the Tyrrhenian sea level oscillations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Speich, S.; Mosetti, F.

    1988-01-01

    In this paper the eigenperiods of the Tyrrhenian sea are examined by an hydrodinamical model in two dimensions. The knowledge of these eigenperiods is important to evaluate the seiches that often appear, in some point or circumstance, stronger than the tides. This investigation is performed by energizing the basin through the Sardinia channel, in the same way as it was already done for the tides. This excitation simulates a large set of waves inducing oscillations inside the basin. The periods of the waves are narrow and their amplitude equal. An analogous method of investigation is that of the fluorescence. In addition, the results are compared with those previously obtained leaving the basin swinging, after having increased the sea level by an uniform displacement. The response of the bidimensional model agrees with that of a monodimensional one as far as possible; thus the last one can give useful information, also for a sea that does not have a channel shape, like the Tyrrhenian Sea. Nevertheless, this basin has other openings, besides the Sardinia channel, it seems that they do not influence the eigenperiod behaviour. This has been confirmed by performing the same computations over a sea 500m less deep: the uniform lowering of the sea surface is equivalent to close the four minor openings. The results carried out in this case agree with the previous one. Among all the periods pointed out by our investigation, one is always exhibited in every point and by each system. The period is that of 5.70h and it can be considered a fundamental mode of the Tyrrhenian Sea

  4. Probabilistic reanalysis of twentieth-century sea-level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hay, Carling C; Morrow, Eric; Kopp, Robert E; Mitrovica, Jerry X

    2015-01-22

    Estimating and accounting for twentieth-century global mean sea level (GMSL) rise is critical to characterizing current and future human-induced sea-level change. Several previous analyses of tide gauge records--employing different methods to accommodate the spatial sparsity and temporal incompleteness of the data and to constrain the geometry of long-term sea-level change--have concluded that GMSL rose over the twentieth century at a mean rate of 1.6 to 1.9 millimetres per year. Efforts to account for this rate by summing estimates of individual contributions from glacier and ice-sheet mass loss, ocean thermal expansion, and changes in land water storage fall significantly short in the period before 1990. The failure to close the budget of GMSL during this period has led to suggestions that several contributions may have been systematically underestimated. However, the extent to which the limitations of tide gauge analyses have affected estimates of the GMSL rate of change is unclear. Here we revisit estimates of twentieth-century GMSL rise using probabilistic techniques and find a rate of GMSL rise from 1901 to 1990 of 1.2 ± 0.2 millimetres per year (90% confidence interval). Based on individual contributions tabulated in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this estimate closes the twentieth-century sea-level budget. Our analysis, which combines tide gauge records with physics-based and model-derived geometries of the various contributing signals, also indicates that GMSL rose at a rate of 3.0 ± 0.7 millimetres per year between 1993 and 2010, consistent with prior estimates from tide gauge records.The increase in rate relative to the 1901-90 trend is accordingly larger than previously thought; this revision may affect some projections of future sea-level rise.

  5. Sea-level and deep-sea-temperature variability over the past 5.3 million years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohling, E J; Foster, G L; Grant, K M; Marino, G; Roberts, A P; Tamisiea, M E; Williams, F

    2014-04-24

    Ice volume (and hence sea level) and deep-sea temperature are key measures of global climate change. Sea level has been documented using several independent methods over the past 0.5 million years (Myr). Older periods, however, lack such independent validation; all existing records are related to deep-sea oxygen isotope (δ(18)O) data that are influenced by processes unrelated to sea level. For deep-sea temperature, only one continuous high-resolution (Mg/Ca-based) record exists, with related sea-level estimates, spanning the past 1.5 Myr. Here we present a novel sea-level reconstruction, with associated estimates of deep-sea temperature, which independently validates the previous 0-1.5 Myr reconstruction and extends it back to 5.3 Myr ago. We find that deep-sea temperature and sea level generally decreased through time, but distinctly out of synchrony, which is remarkable given the importance of ice-albedo feedbacks on the radiative forcing of climate. In particular, we observe a large temporal offset during the onset of Plio-Pleistocene ice ages, between a marked cooling step at 2.73 Myr ago and the first major glaciation at 2.15 Myr ago. Last, we tentatively infer that ice sheets may have grown largest during glacials with more modest reductions in deep-sea temperature.

  6. Estimating decadal variability in sea level from tide gauge records : An application to the North Sea

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frederikse, T.; Riva, R.E.M.; Slobbe, D.C.; Broerse, D.B.T.; Verlaan, M.

    2016-01-01

    One of the primary observational data sets of sea level is represented by the tide gauge record. We propose a new method to estimate variability on decadal time scales from tide gauge data by using a state space formulation, which couples the direct observations to a predefined state space model

  7. Estimating decadal variability in sea level from tide gauge records: An application to the North Sea

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frederikse, Thomas; Riva, R.E.M.; Slobbe, Cornelis; Broerse, D.B.T.; Verlaan, Martin

    2016-01-01

    One of the primary observational data sets of sea level is represented by the tide gauge record. We propose a new method to estimate variability on decadal time scales from tide gauge data by using a state space formulation, which couples the direct observations to a predefined state space model by

  8. Sea defence and flood protection in the Netherlands anticipating increased sea-level rise

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhagen, H.J.

    1990-01-01

    The 1400 km Dutch coastline is affected by sea-level rise. At this moment a legal framework is made to guarantee safety of the dikes also in future. Also a national policy is developed for compensation of all coastal erosion. Both measures should make it possible for the Netherlands to survive an

  9. Geodetic infrastructure at the Barcelona harbour for sea level monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez-Benjamin, Juan Jose; Gili, Josep; Lopez, Rogelio; Tapia, Ana; Pros, Francesc; Palau, Vicenc; Perez, Begona

    2015-04-01

    The presentation is directed to the description of the actual geodetic infrastructure of Barcelona harbour with three tide gauges of different technologies for sea level determination and contribution to regional sea level rise and understanding past and present sea level rise in the Barcelona harbour. It is intended that the overall system will constitute a CGPS Station of the ESEAS (European Sea Level) and TIGA (GPS Tide Gauge Benchmark Monitoring) networks. At Barcelona harbour there is a MIROS radar tide gauge belonging to Puertos del Estado (Spanish Harbours).The radar sensor is over the water surface, on a L-shaped structure which elevates it a few meters above the quay shelf. 1-min data are transmitted to the ENAGAS Control Center by cable and then sent each 1 min to Puertos del Estado by e-mail. The information includes wave forescast (mean period, significant wave height, sea level, etc.This sensor also measures agitation and sends wave parameters each 20 min. There is a GPS station Leica Geosystems GRX1200 GG Pro and antenna AX 1202 GG. The Control Tower of the Port of Barcelona is situated in the North dike of the so-called Energy Pier in the Barcelona harbor (Spain). This tower has different kind of antennas for navigation monitoring and a GNSS permanent station. As the tower is founded in reclaimed land, and because its metallic structure, the 50 m building is subjected to diverse movements, including periodic fluctuations due to temperature changes. In this contribution the 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 the necessary monitoring campaigns are described. In the framework of a Spanish Space Project, the instrumentation of sea level measurements has been improved by providing the Barcelona site with a radar tide gauge Datamar 2000C from Geonica S.L. in June 2014 near an acoustic tide gauge from the Barcelona Harbour installed in 2013. Precision levelling has been made several times in the last two years because the tower is founded in reclaimed land and

  10. Speleothem evidence for MIS 5c and 5a sea level above modern level at Bermuda

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wainer, Karine A. I.; Rowe, Mark P.; Thomas, Alexander L.; Mason, Andrew J.; Williams, Bruce; Tamisiea, Mark E.; Williams, Felicity H.; Düsterhus, André; Henderson, Gideon M.

    2017-01-01

    The history of sea level in regions impacted by glacio-isostasy provides constraints on past ice-sheet distribution and on the characteristics of deformation of the planet in response to loading. The Western North Atlantic-Caribbean region, and Bermuda in particular, is strongly affected by the glacial forebulge that forms as a result of the Laurentide ice-sheet present during glacial periods. The timing of growth of speleothems, at elevations close to sea level can provide records of minimum relative sea level (RSL). In this study we used U-Th dating to precisely date growth periods of speleothems from Bermuda which were found close to modern-day sea level. Results suggest that RSL at this location was above modern during MIS5e, MIS5c and MIS5a. These data support controversial previous indications that Bermudian RSL was significantly higher than RSL at other locations during MIS 5c and MIS 5a. We confirm that it is possible to explain a wide range of MIS5c-a relative sea levels observed across the Western North Atlantic-Caribbean in glacial isostatic adjustment models, but only with a limited range of mantle deformation constants. This study demonstrates the particular power of Bermuda as a gauge for response of the forebulge to glacial loading, and demonstrates the potential for highstands at this location to be significantly higher than in other regions, helping to explain the high sea levels observed for Bermuda from earlier highstands.

  11. Late Holocene sea level variability and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, Thomas M.; Farmer, Jesse R.; Marzen, R. E.; Thomas, E.; Varekamp, J.C.

    2014-01-01

    Pre-twentieth century sea level (SL) variability remains poorly understood due to limits of tide gauge records, low temporal resolution of tidal marsh records, and regional anomalies caused by dynamic ocean processes, notably multidecadal changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). We examined SL and AMOC variability along the eastern United States over the last 2000 years, using a SL curve constructed from proxy sea surface temperature (SST) records from Chesapeake Bay, and twentieth century SL-sea surface temperature (SST) relations derived from tide gauges and instrumental SST. The SL curve shows multidecadal-scale variability (20–30 years) during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA), as well as the twentieth century. During these SL oscillations, short-term rates ranged from 2 to 4 mm yr−1, roughly similar to those of the last few decades. These oscillations likely represent internal modes of climate variability related to AMOC variability and originating at high latitudes, although the exact mechanisms remain unclear. Results imply that dynamic ocean changes, in addition to thermosteric, glacio-eustatic, or glacio-isostatic processes are an inherent part of SL variability in coastal regions, even during millennial-scale climate oscillations such as the MCA and LIA and should be factored into efforts that use tide gauges and tidal marsh sediments to understand global sea level rise.

  12. Sea level change under IPCC-A2 scenario in Bohai, Yellow, and East China Seas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang-lin Chen

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Because of the environmental and socioeconomic impacts of anthropogenic sea level rise (SLR, it is very important to understand the processes leading to past and present SLRs towards more reliable future SLR projections. A regional ocean general circulation model (ROGCM, with a grid refinement in the Bohai, Yellow, and East China Seas (BYECSs, was set up to project SLR induced by the ocean dynamic change in the 21st century. The model does not consider the contributions from ice sheets and glacier melting. Data of all forcing terms required in the model came from the simulation of the Community Climate System Model version 3.0 (CCSM3 under the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-A2 scenario. Simulation results show that at the end of the 21st century, the sea level in the BYECSs will rise about 0.12 to 0.20 m. The SLR in the BYECSs during the 21st century is mainly caused by the ocean mass redistribution due to the ocean dynamic change of the Pacific Ocean, which means that water in the Pacific Ocean tends to move to the continental shelves of the BYECSs, although the local steric sea level change is another factor.

  13. Evidence of Last Interglacial sea-level oscillations and recent tectonism in the Late Pleistocene Falmouth Formation of Jamaica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skrivanek, A.; Dutton, A.; Stemann, T.

    2015-12-01

    coastline indicates that those areas are unreliable for determining absolute past sea-level position.

  14. Implications of Rising Sea Level on Everglades Restoration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanless, H. R.

    2008-05-01

    The strong likelihood of a significant rise in sea level during this century must be incorporated into the design of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) and its execution. With a warming Arctic and increased wind shear in the waters adjacent to Antarctica, accelerated ice melt of both Greenland and Antarctica has begun. With positive feedbacks, this melt appears irreversible on the century scale. Scientists of the Miami-Dade County Climate Change Task Force project that a global rise of sea level of at least 0.9-1.5 meters (3-5 feet) will occur by the end of the century. This anticipated rise will diminish the value of CERP unless (a) the design thoroughly incorporates a realistic sea level rise scenario and (b) there is a refocus of CERP's design to optimize water flow for wetland-community peat growth with the purpose of retarding saline encroachment. The goals of Everglades restoration must become (1) to provide an increase in water flowing at a gradually increasing elevation to permit rapid accumulation of robust organic peat beneath the freshwater wetland and (2) to actively manage the coastal mangrove wetland (e.g., aid hurricane recovery) to help it maintain a robust upwards-building peat margin. If this is done, the central and northern Everglades may survive as a healthy wetland habitat and provide fresh groundwater resources well into the next century. Actively building freshwater and mangrove peat and a dependable supply of freshwater are both critical to retarding saline encroachment up the Everglades depression. Without these, a 1.5 meter rise in sea level could move saline water nearly to Lake Okeechobee. Critical research questions and changes in management need to be addressed for this to succeed. The communities and conditions for optimal freshwater peat buildup must be documented and demonstrated. New management strategies must be designed and maintained to encourage rapid recovery of mangrove forests destroyed by hurricanes

  15. Holocene Sea-Level Database For The Caribbean Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, N. S.; Horton, B.; Engelhart, S. E.; Peltier, W. R.; Scatena, F. N.; Vane, C. H.; Liu, S.

    2013-12-01

    Holocene relative sea-level (RSL) records from far-field locations are important for understanding the driving mechanisms controlling the nature and timing of the mid-late Holocene reduction in global meltwaters and providing background rates of late Holocene RSL change with which to compare the magnitude of 20th century RSL rise. The Caribbean region has traditionally been considered far-field (i.e., with negligible glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA) influence), although recent investigations indicate otherwise. Here, we consider the spatial variability in glacio-isostatic, tectonic and local contributions on RSL records from the circum-Caribbean region to infer a Holocene eustatic sea-level signal. We have constructed a database of quality-controlled, spatially comprehensive, Holocene RSL observations for the circum-Caribbean region. The database contains over 500 index points, which locate the position of RSL in time and space. The database incorporates sea-level observations from a latitudinal range of 5°N to 25°N and longitudinal range of 55°W to 90°W. We include sea-level observations from 11 ka BP to present, although the majority of the index points in the database are younger than 8 ka BP. The database is sub-divided into 13 regions based on the distance from the former Laurentide Ice Sheet and regional tectonic setting. The index points were primarily derived from mangrove peat deposits, which in the Caribbean form in the upper half of the tidal range, and corals (predominantly Acropora palmata), the growth of which is constrained to the upper 5 m of water depth. The index points are classified on the basis of their susceptibility to compaction (e.g., intercalated, basal). The influence of temporal changes in tidal range on index points is also considered. The sea-level reconstructions demonstrate that RSL did not exceed the present height (0 m) during the Holocene in the majority of locations, except at sites in Suriname/Guayana and possibly Trinidad

  16. Combining high and low resolution sea level data for MSL computations in shallow seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahl, T.; Jensen, J.; Frank, T.

    2009-04-01

    In 2003 it has been estimated, that about 23% of the world population lives within a distance of 100 km of a shoreline and less than 100 m above sea level (Small & Nicholls 2003). Furthermore high economic values are located in those areas. Whereas the fact that coastal zones are facing an advancing threat, resulting from climate change processes, is nowadays beyond controversy, scientific efforts now focus on the quantification of the regional and global effects of e.g. sea level rise (SLR) and its nonlinear behaviour. Although great progress is made in predicting future developments, there is still considerable uncertainty in global and regional SLR projections. Due to the fact, that most climate models currently seem to under-estimate the observations (Rahmstorf 2007), the aim of the research project AMSeL is the detailed analysis of the huge amount of available German North Sea tide gauge data. After reconstructing sea level variability over the last 50 to 100 years, the estimation of SLR scenarios for the next 2 to 3 decades seems possible and might help verifying climate models for the North Sea area. A widely used definition describes MSL as the arithmetic mean of hourly heights of the sea at the tidal station observed over a period of at least 19 years. In the project altogether 17 gauge stations were selected for investigation. They provide nearly 1,800 individual years of sea level records, of which almost 1,400 years consist of measured peak values of every tide. Only about 400 years consist of high resolution data (at least hourly values) and are usable for MSL computations by simple averaging, according to the above definition. The averaging of peak values leads to the Mean Tide Level (MTL), which differs partially strong from the MSL in shallow seas (up to 25 cm at the German North Sea coastline), due to shallow-water tidal harmonics, such as the M4 or M6 lunar fourth- and six-diurnal terms (Pugh 2004). Therefore trend estimations based on time series

  17. PERSPECTIVE: The tripping points of sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hecht, Alan D.

    2009-12-01

    When President Nixon created the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 1970 he said the environment must be perceived as a single, interrelated system. We are nowhere close to achieving this vision. Jim Titus and his colleagues [1] highlight one example of where one set of regulations or permits may be in conflict with another and where regulations were crafted in the absence of understanding the cumulative impact of global warming. The issue here is how to deal with the impacts of climate change on sea level and the latter's impact on wetland polices, clean water regulations, and ecosystem services. The Titus paper could also be called `The tripping points of sea level rise'. Titus and his colleagues have looked at the impact of such sea level rise on the east coast of the United States. Adaptive responses include costly large- scale investment in shore protection (e.g. dikes, sand replenishment) and/or ecosystem migration (retreat), where coastal ecosystems move inland. Shore protection is limited by available funds, while ecosystem migrations are limited by available land use. The driving factor is the high probability of sea level rise due to climate change. Estimating sea level rise is difficult because of local land and coastal dynamics including rising or falling land areas. It is estimated that sea level could rise between 8 inches and 2 feet by the end of this century [2]. The extensive data analysis done by Titus et al of current land use is important because, as they observe, `property owners and land use agencies have generally not decided how they will respond to sea level rise, nor have they prepared maps delineating where shore protection and retreat are likely'. This is the first of two `tripping points', namely the need for adaptive planning for a pending environmental challenge that will create economic and environment conflict among land owners, federal and state agencies, and businesses. One way to address this gap in adaptive management

  18. Nest inundation from sea-level rise threatens sea turtle population viability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pike, David A; Roznik, Elizabeth A; Bell, Ian

    2015-07-01

    Contemporary sea-level rise will inundate coastal habitats with seawater more frequently, disrupting the life cycles of terrestrial fauna well before permanent habitat loss occurs. Sea turtles are reliant on low-lying coastal habitats worldwide for nesting, where eggs buried in the sand remain vulnerable to inundation until hatching. We show that saltwater inundation directly lowers the viability of green turtle eggs (Chelonia mydas) collected from the world's largest green turtle nesting rookery at Raine Island, Australia, which is undergoing enigmatic decline. Inundation for 1 or 3 h reduced egg viability by less than 10%, whereas inundation for 6 h reduced viability by approximately 30%. All embryonic developmental stages were vulnerable to mortality from saltwater inundation. Although the hatchlings that emerged from inundated eggs displayed normal physical and behavioural traits, hypoxia during incubation could influence other aspects of the physiology or behaviour of developing embryos, such as learning or spatial orientation. Saltwater inundation can directly lower hatching success, but it does not completely explain the consistently low rates of hatchling production observed on Raine Island. More frequent nest inundation associated with sea-level rise will increase variability in sea turtle hatching success spatially and temporally, due to direct and indirect impacts of saltwater inundation on developing embryos.

  19. INVESTIGATON OF SEA LEVEL CHANGE ALONG THE BLACK SEA COAST FROM TIDE GAUGE AND SATELLITE ALTIMETRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. B. Avsar

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we focus on sea level changes along the Black Sea coast. For this purpose, at same observation period the linear trends and the components of seasonal variations of sea level change are estimated at 12 tide gauge sites (Amasra, Igneada, Trabzon-II, Sinop, Sile, Poti, Batumi, Sevastopol, Tuapse, Varna, Bourgas, and Constantza located along the Black Sea coast and available altimetric grid points closest to the tide gauge locations. The consistency of the results derived from both observations are investigated and interpreted. Furthermore, in order to compare the trends at the same location, it is interpolated from the trends obtained at the altimetric grid points in the defined neighbouring area with a diameter of 0.125° using a weighted average interpolation algorithm at each tide gauge site. For some tide gauges such as Sevastopol, Varna, and Bourgas, it is very likely that the trend estimates are not reliable because the time-spans overlapping the altimeter period are too short. At Sile, the long-term change for the time series of both data types do not give statistically significant linear rates. However, when the sites have long-term records, a general agreement between the satellite altimetry and tide gauge time series is observed at Poti (~20 years and Tuapse (~18 years. On the other hand, the difference of annual phase between satellite altimetry and tide gauge results is from 1.32° to 71.48°.

  20. Flooded! An Investigation of Sea-Level Rise in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillette, Brandon; Hamilton, Cheri

    2011-01-01

    Explore how melting ice sheets affect global sea levels. Sea-level rise (SLR) is a rise in the water level of the Earth's oceans. There are two major kinds of ice in the polar regions: sea ice and land ice. Land ice contributes to SLR and sea ice does not. This article explores the characteristics of sea ice and land ice and provides some hands-on…

  1. Greenhouse effect and sea level rise: the cost of holding back the sea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Titus, J.G.; Park, R.A.; Leatherman, S.P.; Weggel, J.R.; Greene, M.S.; Mausel, P.W.; Brown, S.; Gaunt, G.; Trehan, M.; Yohe, G. (US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (USA). Office of Policy Analysis)

    Previous studies suggest that the expected global warming from the greenhouse effect could raise sea level 50 to 200 cm (2 to 7 ft) in the next century. This article presents the first nationwide assessment of the primary impacts of such a rise on the United States: 1) the cost of protecting ocean resort communities by pumping sand onto beaches and gradually raising barrier islands in place; 2) the cost of protecting developed areas along sheltered waters through the use of levees (dikes) and bulkheads; and 3) the loss of coastal wetlands and undeveloped lowlands. The total cost for a 1-m rise would be between 270 and 475 billion dollars, ignoring future development. It is estimated that if no measures are taken to hold back the sea, a 1-m rise in sea level would inundate 30,000 sq km (14,000 sq mi), with wet and dry land each accounting for about half the loss. The 1500 sq km (600-700 sq mi) of densely developed coastal lowlands could be protected for approximately 1000 to 2000 dollars per year for a typical coastal lot. Given high coastal property values, holding back the sea would probably be cost-effective. The environmental consequences of doing so, however, may not be acceptable. Although the most common engineering solution for protecting the ocean coast, pumping sand, would allow us to keep our beaches, levees and bulkheads along sheltered waters would gradually eliminate most of the nation's wetland shorelines. To ensure the long-term survival of coastal wetlands, federal and state environmental agencies should begin to lay the groundwork for a gradual abandonment of coastal lowlands as sea level rises. 60 refs., 9 figs., 9 tabs.

  2. Milankovitch forcing of the last interglacial sea level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowley, T J; Kim, K Y

    1994-09-09

    During the last interglacial, sea level was as high as present, 4000 to 6000 years before peak Northern Hemisphere insolation receipt 126,000 years ago. The sea-level results are shown to be consistent with climate models, which simulate a 3 degrees to 4 degrees C July temperature increase from 140,000 to 130,000 years ago in high latitudes, with all Northern Hemisphere land areas being warmer than present by 130,000 years ago. The early warming occurs because obliquity peaked earlier than precession and because precession values were greater than present before peak precessional forcing occurred. These results indicate that a fuller understanding of the Milankovitch-climate connection requires consideration of fields other than just insolation forcing at 65 degrees N.

  3. Estimates of the Economic Effects of Sea Level Rise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Darwin, R.F.; Tol, R.S.J.

    2001-01-01

    Regional estimates of direct cost (DC) are commonly used to measure the economic damages of sea level rise. Such estimates suffer from three limitations: (1) values of threatened endowments are not well known, (2) loss of endowments does not affect consumer prices, and (3) international trade is disregarded. Results in this paper indicate that these limitations can significantly affect economic assessments of sea level rise. Current uncertainty regarding endowment values (as reflected in two alternative data sets), for example, leads to a 17 percent difference in coastal protection, a 36 percent difference in the amount of land protected, and a 36 percent difference in DC globally. Also, global losses in equivalent variation (EV), a welfare measure that accounts for price changes, are 13 percent higher than DC estimates. Regional EV losses may be up to 10 percent lower than regional DC, however, because international trade tends to redistribute losses from regions with relatively high damages to regions with relatively low damages. 43 refs

  4. Sea level reconstruction from satellite altimetry and tide gauge data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svendsen, Peter Limkilde; Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg

    2012-01-01

    Ocean satellite altimetry has provided global sets of sea level data for the last two decades, allowing determination of spatial patterns in global sea level. For reconstructions going back further than this period, tide gauge data can be used as a proxy. We examine different methods of combining...... satellite altimetry and tide gauge data using optimal weighting of tide gauge data, linear regression and EOFs, including automatic quality checks of the tide gauge time series. We attempt to augment the model using various proxies such as climate indices like the NAO and PDO, and investigate alternative...... of itself, whereas the desired signal will exhibit autocorrelation. This will be applied to a global dataset, necessitating wrap-around consideration of spatial shifts. Our focus is a timescale going back approximately 50 years, allowing reasonable global availability of tide gauge data. This allows...

  5. Arctic sea-level reconstruction analysis using recent satellite altimetry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svendsen, Peter Limkilde; Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg

    2014-01-01

    We present a sea-level reconstruction for the Arctic Ocean using recent satellite altimetry data. The model, forced by historical tide gauge data, is based on empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) from a calibration period; for this purpose, newly retracked satellite altimetry from ERS-1 and -2...... to reconstruct known data. The relationship between the reconstruction and climatic variables, such as atmospheric pressure, and climate oscillations, including the Arctic Oscillation (AO), is examined....

  6. Portrait of a Warming Ocean and Rising Sea Levels: Trend of Sea Level Change 1993-2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    Warming water and melting land ice have raised global mean sea level 4.5 centimeters (1.7 inches) from 1993 to 2008. But the rise is by no means uniform. This image, created with sea surface height data from the Topex/Poseidon and Jason-1 satellites, shows exactly where sea level has changed during this time and how quickly these changes have occurred. It's also a road map showing where the ocean currently stores the growing amount of heat it is absorbing from Earth's atmosphere and the heat it receives directly from the Sun. The warmer the water, the higher the sea surface rises. The location of heat in the ocean and its movement around the globe play a pivotal role in Earth's climate. Light blue indicates areas in which sea level has remained relatively constant since 1993. White, red, and yellow are regions where sea levels have risen the most rapidly up to 10 millimeters per year and which contain the most heat. Green areas have also risen, but more moderately. Purple and dark blue show where sea levels have dropped, due to cooler water. The dramatic variation in sea surface heights and heat content across the ocean are due to winds, currents and long-term changes in patterns of circulation. From 1993 to 2008, the largest area of rapidly rising sea levels and the greatest concentration of heat has been in the Pacific, which now shows the characteristics of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a feature that can last 10 to 20 years or even longer. In this 'cool' phase, the PDO appears as a horseshoe-shaped pattern of warm water in the Western Pacific reaching from the far north to the Southern Ocean enclosing a large wedge of cool water with low sea surface heights in the eastern Pacific. This ocean/climate phenomenon may be caused by wind-driven Rossby waves. Thousands of kilometers long, these waves move from east to west on either side of the equator changing the distribution of water mass and heat. This image of sea level trend also reveals a significant

  7. Mangrove sedimentation and response to relative sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodroffe, CD; Rogers, K.; Mckee, Karen L.; Lovelock, CE; Mendelssohn, IA; Saintilan, N.

    2016-01-01

    Mangroves occur on upper intertidal shorelines in the tropics and subtropics. Complex hydrodynamic and salinity conditions influence mangrove distributions, primarily related to elevation and hydroperiod; this review considers how these adjust through time. Accumulation rates of allochthonous and autochthonous sediment, both inorganic and organic, vary between and within different settings. Abundant terrigenous sediment can form dynamic mudbanks; tides redistribute sediment, contrasting with mangrove peat in sediment-starved carbonate settings. Sediments underlying mangroves sequester carbon, but also contain paleoenvironmental records of adjustments to past sea-level changes. Radiometric dating indicates long-term sedimentation, whereas Surface Elevation Table-Marker Horizon measurements (SET-MH) provide shorter perspectives, indicating shallow subsurface processes of root growth and substrate autocompaction. Many tropical deltas also experience deep subsidence, which augments relative sea-level rise. The persistence of mangroves implies an ability to cope with moderately high rates of relative sea-level rise. However, many human pressures threaten mangroves, resulting in continuing decline in their extent throughout the tropics.

  8. Glacier calving, dynamics, and sea-level rise. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meier, M.F.; Pfeffer, W.T.; Amadei, B.

    1998-08-01

    The present-day calving flux from Greenland and Antarctica is poorly known, and this accounts for a significant portion of the uncertainty in the current mass balance of these ice sheets. Similarly, the lack of knowledge about the role of calving in glacier dynamics constitutes a major uncertainty in predicting the response of glaciers and ice sheets to changes in climate and thus sea level. Another fundamental problem has to do with incomplete knowledge of glacier areas and volumes, needed for analyses of sea-level change due to changing climate. The authors proposed to develop an improved ability to predict the future contributions of glaciers to sea level by combining work from four research areas: remote sensing observations of calving activity and iceberg flux, numerical modeling of glacier dynamics, theoretical analysis of the calving process, and numerical techniques for modeling flow with large deformations and fracture. These four areas have never been combined into a single research effort on this subject; in particular, calving dynamics have never before been included explicitly in a model of glacier dynamics. A crucial issue that they proposed to address was the general question of how calving dynamics and glacier flow dynamics interact.

  9. Detection of human influence on sea-level pressure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillett, Nathan P; Zwiers, Francis W; Weaver, Andrew J; Stott, Peter A

    2003-03-20

    Greenhouse gases and tropospheric sulphate aerosols--the main human influences on climate--have been shown to have had a detectable effect on surface air temperature, the temperature of the free troposphere and stratosphere and ocean temperature. Nevertheless, the question remains as to whether human influence is detectable in any variable other than temperature. Here we detect an influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols in observations of winter sea-level pressure (December to February), using combined simulations from four climate models. We find increases in sea-level pressure over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean, southern Europe and North Africa, and decreases in the polar regions and the North Pacific Ocean, in response to human influence. Our analysis also indicates that the climate models substantially underestimate the magnitude of the sea-level pressure response. This discrepancy suggests that the upward trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation index (corresponding to strengthened westerlies in the North Atlantic region), as simulated in a number of global warming scenarios, may be too small, leading to an underestimation of the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on European climate.

  10. Sea level, paleogeography, and archeology on California's Northern Channel Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reeder-Myers, Leslie; Erlandson, Jon M.; Muhs, Daniel R.; Rick, Torben C.

    2015-01-01

    Sea-level rise during the late Pleistocene and early Holocene inundated nearshore areas in many parts of the world, producing drastic changes in local ecosystems and obscuring significant portions of the archeological record. Although global forces are at play, the effects of sea-level rise are highly localized due to variability in glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) effects. Interpretations of coastal paleoecology and archeology require reliable estimates of ancient shorelines that account for GIA effects. Here we build on previous models for California's Northern Channel Islands, producing more accurate late Pleistocene and Holocene paleogeographic reconstructions adjusted for regional GIA variability. This region has contributed significantly to our understanding of early New World coastal foragers. Sea level that was about 80–85 m lower than present at the time of the first known human occupation brought about a landscape and ecology substantially different than today. During the late Pleistocene, large tracts of coastal lowlands were exposed, while a colder, wetter climate and fluctuating marine conditions interacted with rapidly evolving littoral environments. At the close of the Pleistocene and start of the Holocene, people in coastal California faced shrinking land, intertidal, and subtidal zones, with important implications for resource availability and distribution.

  11. Mangrove Sedimentation and Response to Relative Sea-Level Rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodroffe, C D; Rogers, K; McKee, K L; Lovelock, C E; Mendelssohn, I A; Saintilan, N

    2016-01-01

    Mangroves occur on upper intertidal shorelines in the tropics and subtropics. Complex hydrodynamic and salinity conditions, related primarily to elevation and hydroperiod, influence mangrove distributions; this review considers how these distributions change over time. Accumulation rates of allochthonous and autochthonous sediment, both inorganic and organic, vary between and within different settings. Abundant terrigenous sediment can form dynamic mudbanks, and tides redistribute sediment, contrasting with mangrove peat in sediment-starved carbonate settings. Sediments underlying mangroves sequester carbon but also contain paleoenvironmental records of adjustments to past sea-level changes. Radiometric dating indicates long-term sedimentation, whereas measurements made using surface elevation tables and marker horizons provide shorter perspectives, indicating shallow subsurface processes of root growth and substrate autocompaction. Many tropical deltas also experience deep subsidence, which augments relative sea-level rise. The persistence of mangroves implies an ability to cope with moderately high rates of relative sea-level rise. However, many human pressures threaten mangroves, resulting in a continuing decline in their extent throughout the tropics.

  12. How mangrove forests adjust to rising sea level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krauss, Ken W; McKee, Karen L; Lovelock, Catherine E; Cahoon, Donald R; Saintilan, Neil; Reef, Ruth; Chen, Luzhen

    2014-04-01

    Mangroves are among the most well described and widely studied wetland communities in the world. The greatest threats to mangrove persistence are deforestation and other anthropogenic disturbances that can compromise habitat stability and resilience to sea-level rise. To persist, mangrove ecosystems must adjust to rising sea level by building vertically or become submerged. Mangroves may directly or indirectly influence soil accretion processes through the production and accumulation of organic matter, as well as the trapping and retention of mineral sediment. In this review, we provide a general overview of research on mangrove elevation dynamics, emphasizing the role of the vegetation in maintaining soil surface elevations (i.e. position of the soil surface in the vertical plane). We summarize the primary ways in which mangroves may influence sediment accretion and vertical land development, for example, through root contributions to soil volume and upward expansion of the soil surface. We also examine how hydrological, geomorphological and climatic processes may interact with plant processes to influence mangrove capacity to keep pace with rising sea level. We draw on a variety of studies to describe the important, and often under-appreciated, role that plants play in shaping the trajectory of an ecosystem undergoing change. No claim to original US government works. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

  13. How mangrove forests adjust to rising sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krauss, Ken W.; McKee, Karen L.; Lovelock, Catherine E.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Saintilan, Neil; Reef, Ruth; Chen, Luzhen

    2014-01-01

    Mangroves are among the most well described and widely studied wetland communities in the world. The greatest threats to mangrove persistence are deforestation and other anthropogenic disturbances that can compromise habitat stability and resilience to sea-level rise. To persist, mangrove ecosystems must adjust to rising sea level by building vertically or become submerged. Mangroves may directly or indirectly influence soil accretion processes through the production and accumulation of organic matter, as well as the trapping and retention of mineral sediment. In this review, we provide a general overview of research on mangrove elevation dynamics, emphasizing the role of the vegetation in maintaining soil surface elevations (i.e. position of the soil surface in the vertical plane). We summarize the primary ways in which mangroves may influence sediment accretion and vertical land development, for example, through root contributions to soil volume and upward expansion of the soil surface. We also examine how hydrological, geomorphological and climatic processes may interact with plant processes to influence mangrove capacity to keep pace with rising sea level. We draw on a variety of studies to describe the important, and often under-appreciated, role that plants play in shaping the trajectory of an ecosystem undergoing change.

  14. Observed Sea-Level Changes along the Norwegian Coast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristian Breili

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Norway’s national sea level observing system consists of an extensive array of tide gauges, permanent GNSS stations, and lines of repeated levelling. Here, we make use of this observation system to calculate relative sea-level rates and rates corrected for glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA along the Norwegian coast for three different periods, i.e., 1960 to 2010, 1984 to 2014, and 1993 to 2016. For all periods, the relative sea-level rates show considerable spatial variations that are largely due to differences in vertical land motion due to GIA. The variation is reduced by applying corrections for vertical land motion and associated gravitational effects on sea level. For 1960 to 2010 and 1984 to 2014, the coastal average GIA-corrected rates for Norway are 2.0 ± 0.6 mm/year and 2.2 ± 0.6 mm/year, respectively. This is close to the rate of global sea-level rise for the same periods. For the most recent period, 1993 to 2016, the GIA-corrected coastal average is 3.5 ± 0.6 mm/year and 3.2 ± 0.6 mm/year with and without inverse barometer (IB corrections, respectively, which is significantly higher than for the two earlier periods. For 1993 to 2016, the coastal average IB-corrected rates show broad agreement with two independent sets of altimetry. This suggests that there is no systematic error in the vertical land motion corrections applied to the tide-gauge data. At the same time, altimetry does not capture the spatial variation identified in the tide-gauge records. This could be an effect of using altimetry observations off the coast instead of directly at each tide gauge. Finally, we note that, owing to natural variability in the climate system, our estimates are highly sensitive to the selected study period. For example, using a 30-year moving window, we find that the estimated rates may change by up to 1 mm/year when shifting the start epoch by only one year.

  15. Integrating Non-Tidal Sea Level data from altimetry and tide gauges for coastal sea level prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheng, Yongcun; Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Knudsen, Per

    2012-01-01

    The main objective of this paper is to integrate Non-Tidal Sea Level (NSL) from the joint TOPEX, Jason-1 and Jason-2 satellite altimetry with tide gauge data at the west and north coast of the United Kingdom for coastal sea level prediction. The temporal correlation coefficient between altimetric...... NSLs and tide gauge data reaches a maximum higher than 90% for each gauge. The results show that the multivariate regression approach can efficiently integrate the two types of data in the coastal waters of the area. The Multivariate Regression Model is established by integrating the along-track NSL...... from the joint TOPEX/Jason-1/Jason-2 altimeters with that from eleven tide gauges. The model results give a maximum hindcast skill of 0.95, which means maximum 95% of NSL variance can be explained by the model. The minimum Root Mean Square Error (RMSe) between altimetric observations and model...

  16. Gap Filling of Daily Sea Levels by Artificial Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lyubka Pashova

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In the recent years, intelligent methods as artificial neural networks are successfully applied for data analysis from different fields of the geosciences. One of the encountered practical problems is the availability of gaps in the time series that prevent their comprehensive usage for the scientific and practical purposes. The article briefly describes two types of the artificial neural network (ANN architectures - Feed-Forward Backpropagation (FFBP and recurrent Echo state network (ESN. In some cases, the ANN can be used as an alternative on the traditional methods, to fill in missing values in the time series. We have been conducted several experiments to fill the missing values of daily sea levels spanning a 5-years period using both ANN architectures. A multiple linear regression for the same purpose has been also applied. The sea level data are derived from the records of the tide gauge Burgas, which is located on the western Black Sea coast. The achieved results have shown that the performance of ANN models is better than that of the classical one and they are very promising for the real-time interpolation of missing data in the time series.

  17. Present level of contaminants in the Romanian Black Sea sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bologa, A.S.; Apas, M.; Cociasu, A.; Cuingioglu, E.; Patrascu, V.; Pecheanu, I.; Piescu, V.; Popa, L.

    1999-01-01

    The assessment of environmental quality in the Romanian Black Sea sector is being constantly made by the Romanian Marine Research Institute (RMRI) within the National Integrated Monitoring System. The contamination of the marine environment is expressed by considering four chemical and a biological parameter: nutrients (N-NO 2 , N-NO 3 , N-NH 4 , P-PO 4 , organic P, Si-SiO 4 ), heavy metals (Mn, Fe, Cu, Cd, Pb), artificial radionuclides ( 90 Sr, 137 Cs), total hydrocarbons, parasite and saprophyte fungi in sediments, sea water and/or biota. Present levels of contaminants are discussed as to their historical evolution during the last few years or decades. Inorganic N and P concentrations still exceed three to five times those before eutrophication started to intensify in the early '70s. Practical uses of results by national and regional authorities are discussed. (author)

  18. Grain-size based sea-level reconstruction in the south Bohai Sea during the past 135 kyr

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, Liang; Chen, Yanping

    2013-04-01

    Future anthropogenic sea-level rise and its impact on coastal regions is an important issue facing human civilizations. Due to the short nature of the instrumental record of sea-level change, development of proxies for sea-level change prior to the advent of instrumental records is essential to reconstruct long-term background sea-level changes on local, regional and global scales. Two of the most widely used approaches for past sea-level changes are: (1) exploitation of dated geomorphologic features such as coastal sands (e.g. Mauz and Hassler, 2000), salt marsh (e.g. Madsen et al., 2007), terraces (e.g. Chappell et al., 1996), and other coastal sediments (e.g. Zong et al., 2003); and (2) sea-level transfer functions based on faunal assemblages such as testate amoebae (e.g. Charman et al., 2002), foraminifera (e.g. Chappell and Shackleton, 1986; Horton, 1997), and diatoms (e.g. Horton et al., 2006). While a variety of methods has been developed to reconstruct palaeo-changes in sea level, many regions, including the Bohai Sea, China, still lack detailed relative sea-level curves extending back to the Pleistocene (Yi et al., 2012). For example, coral terraces are absent in the Bohai Sea, and the poor preservation of faunal assemblages makes development of a transfer function for a relative sea-level reconstruction unfeasible. In contrast, frequent alternations between transgression and regression has presumably imprinted sea-level change on the grain size distribution of Bohai Sea sediments, which varies from medium silt to coarse sand during the late Quaternary (IOCAS, 1985). Advantages of grainsize-based relative sea-level transfer function approaches are that they require smaller sample sizes, allowing for replication, faster measurement and higher spatial or temporal resolution at a fraction of the cost of detail micro-palaeontological analysis (Yi et al., 2012). Here, we employ numerical methods to partition sediment grain size using a combined database of

  19. Sea-level trend in the South China Sea observed from 20 years of along-track satellite altimetric data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheng, Yongcun; Xu, Qing; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

    2014-01-01

    The sea-level trend in the South China Sea (SCS) is investigated based on 20 years of along-track data from TOPEX and Jason-1/2 satellite altimetry. The average sea-level rise over all the regions in the study area is observed to have a rate of 5.1 ± 0.8 mm year-1 for the period from 1993 to 2012...

  20. SEA LEVEL - DAILY AVERAGE and Other Data from FIXED PLATFORM and Other Platforms (NCEI Accession 8900271)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The accession contains daily average Sea Level Measurements. A Tide Gauge was used to make these measurements. Sea Level Replacement data was received from Pat...

  1. NOAA Digital Coast Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Impacts Viewer

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Impacts Viewer depicts potential sea level rise and its associated impacts on the nation's coastal areas. These coastal areas...

  2. Real-time reporting and internet-accessible cellular based coastal sea level gauge

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Desai, R.G.P.; Joseph, A.; Agarvadekar, Y.; Mehra, P.; Dabholkar, N.; Parab, A.; Gouveia, A.D.; Tengali, S.

    A real-time sea-level reporting system utilizing exiting cellular communication infrastructure is described. Several issues involved in the implementation of internetaccessible sea-level gauge have been addressed. It is anticipated that the growth...

  3. GPS Vertical Land Motion Corrections to Sea-Level Rise Estimates in the Pacific Northwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montillet, J.-P.; Melbourne, T. I.; Szeliga, W. M.

    2018-02-01

    We construct coastal Pacific Northwest profiles of vertical land motion (VLM) known to bias long-term tide-gauge measurements of sea-level rise (SLR) and use them to estimate absolute sea-level rise with respect to Earth's center of mass. Multidecade GPS measurements at 47 coastal stations along the Cascadia subduction zone show VLM varies regionally but smoothly along the Pacific coast and inland Puget Sound with rates ranging from + 4.9 to -1.2 mm/yr. Puget Sound VLM is characterized by uniform subsidence at relatively slow rates of -0.1 to -0.3 mm/yr. Uplift rates of 4.5 mm/yr persist along the western Olympic Peninsula of northwestern Washington State and decrease southward becoming nearly 0 mm/yr south of central coastal Washington through Cape Blanco, Oregon. South of Cape Blanco, uplift increases to 1-2 mm/yr, peaks at 4 mm/yr near Crescent City, California, and returns to zero at Cape Mendocino, California. Using various stochastic noise models, we estimate long-term (˜50 -100 yr) relative sea-level rise rates at 18 coastal Cascadia tide gauges and correct them for VLM. Uncorrected SLR rates are scattered, ranging between -2 mm/yr and + 5 mm/yr with mean 0.52 ± 1.59 mm/yr, whereas correcting for VLM increases the mean value to 1.99 mm/yr and reduces the uncertainty to ± 1.18 mm/yr, commensurate with, but approximately 17% higher than, twentieth century global mean.

  4. Contribution of atmospheric circulation to recent off-shore sea-level variations in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karabil, Sitar; Zorita, Eduardo; Hünicke, Birgit

    2018-01-01

    The main purpose of this study is to quantify the contribution of atmospheric factors to recent off-shore sea-level variability in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea on interannual timescales. For this purpose, we statistically analysed sea-level records from tide gauges and satellite altimetry and several climatic data sets covering the last century. Previous studies had concluded that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the main pattern of atmospheric variability affecting sea level in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea in wintertime. However, we identify a different atmospheric circulation pattern that is more closely connected to sea-level variability than the NAO. This circulation pattern displays a link to sea level that remains stable through the 20th century, in contrast to the much more variable link between sea level and the NAO. We denote this atmospheric variability mode as the Baltic Sea and North Sea Oscillation (BANOS) index. The sea-level pressure (SLP) BANOS pattern displays an SLP dipole with centres of action located over (5° W, 45° N) and (20° E, 70° N) and this is distinct from the standard NAO SLP pattern in wintertime. In summertime, the discrepancy between the SLP BANOS and NAO patterns becomes clearer, with centres of action of the former located over (30° E, 45° N) and (20° E, 60° N). This index has a stronger connection to off-shore sea-level variability in the study area than the NAO in wintertime for the period 1993-2013, explaining locally up to 90 % of the interannual sea-level variance in winter and up to 79 % in summer. The eastern part of the Gulf of Finland is the area where the BANOS index is most sensitive to sea level in wintertime, whereas the Gulf of Riga is the most sensitive region in summertime. In the North Sea region, the maximum sea-level sensitivity to the BANOS pattern is located in the German Bight for both winter and summer seasons. We investigated, and when possible quantified, the contribution of several

  5. New evidence for "far-field" Holocene sea level oscillations and links to global climate records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonard, N. D.; Welsh, K. J.; Clark, T. R.; Feng, Y.-x.; Pandolfi, J. M.; Zhao, J.-x.

    2018-04-01

    Rising sea level in the coming century is of significant concern, yet predicting relative sea level change in response to eustatic sea level variability is complex. Potential analogues are provided by the recent geological past but, until recently, many sea level reconstructions have been limited to millennial scale interpretations due to age uncertainties and paucity in proxy derived records. Here we present a sea level history for the tectonically stable "far-field" Great Barrier Reef, Australia, derived from 94 high precision uranium-thorium dates of sub-fossil coral microatolls. Our results provide evidence for at least two periods of relative sea level instability during the Holocene. These sea level oscillations are broadly synchronous with Indo-Pacific negative sea surface temperature anomalies, rapid global cooling events and glacial advances. We propose that the pace and magnitude of these oscillations are suggestive of eustatic/thermosteric processes operating in conjunction with regional climatic controls.

  6. ENSO-induced inter-annual sea level variability in the Singapore strait

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Soumya, M.; Vethamony, P.; Tkalich, P.

    Sea level data from four tide gauge stations in the SS (Tanjong Pagar, Sultan Shoal, Sembawang and Raffles Lighthouse) for the period 1970-2012 were extracted to study the ENSO-induced interannual sea level variability Sea level during this period...

  7. Modelling regional sea-level changes in recent past and future

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slangen, A.B.A.

    2012-01-01

    Sea-level change is one of the most important consequences of a warming climate, affecting many densely populated coastal communities. To improve coastal management and the planning of flood defences, information on the future development of sea-level rise is needed. However, sea-level rise is not

  8. Sea level rise and land loss in the Nile Delta | IDRC - International ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2016-06-09

    Jun 9, 2016 ... Using the most recent predictions of sea level rise, total coastal land lost could be between 22 to 49%. ... of the Nile Delta coastal areas to inundation by sea level rise, M.A. Hassaan and Mohammad Abdrabo used GIS to identify areas and land use/cover that may be susceptible to sea level rise by 2100.

  9. Comparing tide gauge observations to regional patterns of sea-level change (1961-2003)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slangen, A. B. A.; van de Wal, R. S. W.; Wada, Y.; Vermeersen, L. L. A.

    2014-01-01

    Although the global mean sea-level budget for the 20th century can now be closed, the understanding of sea-level change on a regional scale is still limited. In this study we compare observations from tide gauges to regional patterns from various contributions to sea-level change to see how much of

  10. Comparing tide gauge observations to regional patterns of sea-level change (1961–2003)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slangen, A.B.A.; Van de Wal, R.S.W.; Wada, Y.; Vermeersen, L.L.A.

    2014-01-01

    Although the global mean sea-level budget for the 20th century can now be closed, the understanding of sea-level change on a regional scale is still limited. In this study we compare observations from tide gauges to regional patterns from various contributions to sea-level change to see how much of

  11. Economy-wide estimates of the implications of climate change: Sea level rise

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bosello, F.; Roson, R.; Tol, R.S.J.

    2007-01-01

    The economy-wide implications of sea level rise in 2050 are estimated using a static computable general equilibrium model. This allows for a better estimate of the welfare effects of sea level rise than the common direct cost estimates; and for an estimate of the impact of sea level rise on

  12. Sea level rise projections for Northern Europe under RCP8.5

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grinsted, A.; Jevrejeva, S.; Riva, R.E.M.; Dahl-Jensen, D.

    2015-01-01

    Sea level rise poses a significant threat to coastal communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Sea level rise is not uniform globally but is affected by a range of regional factors. In this study, we calculate regional projections of 21st century sea level rise in northern Europe, focusing on the

  13. Benchmarking and testing the “Sea Level Equation”

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spada, G.; Barletta, Valentina Roberta; Klemann, V.

    2012-01-01

    . This study has taken place within a collaboration facilitated through the Eu-ropean Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) Action ES0701. The tests involve predictions of past and current sea level variations, and 3D deformations of the Earth surface. In spite of the significant differences...... in the numerical methods employed, the test computations performed so far show a satisfactory agreement between the results provided by the participants. The differences found, which can be often attributed to the different numerical algorithms employed within the com-munity, help to constrain the intrinsic errors...

  14. Sea level characterization of a 1100 g sapphire bolometer

    CERN Document Server

    Pécourt, S; Bobin, C; Coron, N; Jesus, M D; Hadjout, J P; Leblanc, J W; Marcillac, P D

    1999-01-01

    A first characterization of a 1100 g sapphire bolometer, performed at sea level and at a working temperature of 40 mK, is presented. Despite perturbations coming from the high-radioactive background and cosmic rays, calibration spectra could be achieved with an internal alpha source and a sup 5 sup 7 Co gamma-ray source: the experimental threshold is 25 keV, while the FWHM resolution is 17.4 keV for the 122 keV peak. Possible heat release effects are discussed, and a new limit of 9x10 sup - sup 1 sup 4 W/g is obtained for sapphire.

  15. Long-range dependence and sea level forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Ercan, Ali; Abbasov, Rovshan K

    2013-01-01

    This study shows that the Caspian Sea level time series possess long range dependence even after removing linear trends, based on analyses of the Hurst statistic, the sample autocorrelation functions, and the periodogram of the series. Forecasting performance of ARMA, ARIMA, ARFIMA and Trend Line-ARFIMA (TL-ARFIMA) combination models are investigated. The forecast confidence bands and the forecast updating methodology, provided for ARIMA models in the literature, are modified for the ARFIMA models. Sample autocorrelation functions are utilized to estimate the differencing lengths of the ARFIMA

  16. Relative Sea Level, Tidal Range, and Extreme Water Levels in Boston Harbor from 1825 to 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talke, S. A.; Kemp, A.; Woodruff, J. D.

    2017-12-01

    Long time series of water-level measurements made by tide gauges provide a rich and valuable observational history of relative sea-level change, the frequency and height of extreme water levels and evolving tidal regimes. However, relatively few locations have available tide-gauge records longer than 100 years and most of these places are in northern Europe. This spatio-temporal distribution hinders efforts to understand global-, regional- and local-scale trends. Using newly-discovered archival measurements, we constructed a 200 year, instrumental record of water levels, tides, and storm surges in Boston Harbor. We detail the recovery, datum reconstruction, digitization, quality assurance, and analysis of this extended observational record. Local, decadally-averaged relative sea-level rose by 0.28 ± 0.05 m since the 1820s, with an acceleration of 0.023 ±0.009 mm/yr2. Approximately 0.13 ± 0.02 m of the observed RSL rise occurred due to ongoing glacial isostatic adjustment, and the remainder occurred due to changes in ocean mass and volume associated with the onset of modern mean sea-level rise. Change-point analysis of the new relative sea level record confirms that anthropogenic rise began in 1924-1932, which is in agreement with global mean sea level estimates from the global tide gauge network. Tide range decreased by 5.5% between 1830 and 1910, likely due in large part to anthropogenic development. Storm tides in Boston Harbor are produced primarily by extratropical storms during the November-April time frame. The three largest storm tides occurred in 1851, 1909, and 1978. Because 90% of the top 20 storm tides since 1825 occurred during a spring tide, the secular change in tide range contributes to a slight reduction in storm tide magnitudes. However, non-stationarity in storm hazard was historically driven primarily by local relative sea-level rise; a modest 0.2 m increase in relative sea level reduces the 100 year high water mark to a once-in-10 year event.

  17. Uprated OMS Engine Status-Sea Level Testing Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertolino, J. D.; Boyd, W. C.

    1990-01-01

    The current Space Shuttle Orbital Maneuvering Engine (OME) is pressure fed, utilizing storable propellants. Performance uprating of this engine, through the use of a gas generator driven turbopump to increase operating pressure, is being pursued by the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC). Component level design, fabrication, and test activities for this engine system have been on-going since 1984. More recently, a complete engine designated the Integrated Component Test Bed (ICTB), was tested at sea level conditions by Aerojet. A description of the test hardware and results of the sea level test program are presented. These results, which include the test condition operating envelope and projected performance at altitude conditions, confirm the capability of the selected Uprated OME (UOME) configuration to meet or exceed performance and operational requirements. Engine flexibility, demonstrated through testing at two different operational mixture ratios, along with a summary of projected Space Shuttle performance enhancements using the UOME, are discussed. Planned future activities, including ICTB tests at simulated altitude conditions, and recommendations for further engine development, are also discussed.

  18. Responding to rising sea levels in the Mekong Delta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smajgl, A.; Toan, T. Q.; Nhan, D. K.; Ward, J.; Trung, N. H.; Tri, L. Q.; Tri, V. P. D.; Vu, P. T.

    2015-02-01

    Vietnamese communities in the Mekong Delta are faced with the substantial impacts of rising sea levels and salinity intrusion. The construction of embankments and dykes has historically been the principal strategy of the Vietnamese government to mitigate the effects of salinity intrusion on agricultural production. A predicted sea-level rise of 30 cm by the year 2050 is expected to accelerate salinity intrusion. This study combines hydrologic, agronomic and behavioural assessments to identify effective adaptation strategies reliant on land-use change (soft options) and investments in water infrastructure (hard options). As these strategies are managed within different policy portfolios, the political discussion has polarized between choices of either soft or hard options. This paper argues that an ensemble of hard and soft policies is likely to provide the most effective results for people's livelihoods in the Mekong Delta. The consequences of policy deliberations are likely to be felt beyond the Mekong Delta as levels of rice cultivation there also affect national and global food security.

  19. The Greenlandic sea areas and activity level up to 2025

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jakobsen, Uffe; í Dali, Birita

    2016-01-01

    . It includes an overview of types of vessels and other objects involved in different activities, and the volume of traffic connected to different types of activities, such as fisheries, petroleum, tourism, navy and research. Furthermore, this report estimates the maritime activity level in the area the next...... ten years, or until 2025, and the potential development of the regional preparedness system. The data within this report is derived both from secondary and primary sources. The analysis of the current maritime activity is based on published analytical reports on maritime activity, facts and statistics......, petroleum activity, tourism and research/government activity. The last chapter is devoted to summarizing findings about the current developed activity level in the High North sea and coastal regions and the estimated activity level up to 2025. Possible implications for the preparedness system in the High...

  20. Absolute Summ

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Alfred, Jr.

    Summ means the entirety of the multiverse. It seems clear, from the inflation theories of A. Guth and others, that the creation of many universes is plausible. We argue that Absolute cosmological ideas, not unlike those of I. Newton, may be consistent with dynamic multiverse creations. As suggested in W. Heisenberg's uncertainty principle, and with the Anthropic Principle defended by S. Hawking, et al., human consciousness, buttressed by findings of neuroscience, may have to be considered in our models. Predictability, as A. Einstein realized with Invariants and General Relativity, may be required for new ideas to be part of physics. We present here a two postulate model geared to an Absolute Summ. The seedbed of this work is part of Akhnaton's philosophy (see S. Freud, Moses and Monotheism). Most important, however, is that the structure of human consciousness, manifest in Kenya's Rift Valley 200,000 years ago as Homo sapiens, who were the culmination of the six million year co-creation process of Hominins and Nature in Africa, allows us to do the physics that we do. .

  1. Vulnerability of the US to future sea level rise

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gornitz, V. (National Aeronautics and Space Administration, New York, NY (USA). Goddard Inst. for Space Studies); White, T.W.; Cushman, R.M. (Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA))

    1991-01-01

    The differential vulnerability of the conterminous United States to future sea level rise from greenhouse climate warming is assessed, using a coastal hazards data base. This data contains information on seven variables relating to inundation and erosion risks. High risk shorelines are characterized by low relief, erodible substrate, subsidence, shoreline retreat, and high wave/tide energies. Very high risk shorelines on the Atlantic Coast (Coastal Vulnerability Index {ge}33.0) include the outer coast of the Delmarva Peninsula, northern Cape Hatteras, and segments of New Jersey, Georgia and South Carolina. Louisiana and sections of Texas are potentially the most vulnerable, due to anomalously high relative sea level rise and erosion, coupled with low elevation and mobile sediments. Although the Pacific Coast is generally the least vulnerable, because of its rugged relief and erosion-resistant substrate, the high geographic variability leads to several exceptions, such as the San Joaquin-Sacramento Delta area, the barrier beaches of Oregon and Washington, and parts of the Puget Sound Lowlands. 31 refs., 2 figs., 3 tabs.

  2. Azimuth selection for sea level measurements using geodetic GPS receivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiaolei; Zhang, Qin; Zhang, Shuangcheng

    2018-03-01

    Based on analysis of Global Positioning System (GPS) multipath signals recorded by a geodetic GPS receiver, GPS Reflectometry (GPS-R) has demonstrated unique advantages in relation to sea level monitoring. Founded on multipath reflectometry theory, sea level changes can be measured by GPS-R through spectral analysis of recorded signal-to-noise ratio data. However, prior to estimating multipath parameters, it is necessary to define azimuth and elevation angle mask to ensure the reflecting zones are on water. Here, a method is presented to address azimuth selection, a topic currently under active development in the field of GPS-R. Data from three test sites: the Kachemak Bay GPS site PBAY in Alaska (USA), Friday Harbor GPS site SC02 in the San Juan Islands (USA), and Brest Harbor GPS site BRST in Brest (France) are analyzed. These sites are located in different multipath environments, from a rural coastal area to a busy harbor, and they experience different tidal ranges. Estimates by the GPS tide gauges at azimuths selected by the presented method are compared with measurements from physical tide gauges and acceptable correspondence found for all three sites.

  3. Coastal wetlands, sea level, and the dimensions of geomorphic resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Jonathan D.

    2018-03-01

    Geomorphic system resilience is often perceived as an intrinsic property of system structure and interactions but is also related to idiosyncratic place and history factors. The importance of geographical and historical circumstances makes it difficult to generate categorical statements about geomorphic resilience. However, network-based analyses of system structure can be used to determine the dynamical stability (= resilience) based on generally applicable relationships and to determine scenarios of stability or instability. These provide guidelines for assessing place and history factors to assess resilience. A model of coastal wetlands is analyzed, based on interactions among relative sea level, wetland surface elevation, hydroperiod, vegetation, and sedimentation. The system is generally (but not always) dynamically unstable and non-resilient. Because of gradients of environmental factors and patchy distributions of microtopography and vegetation, a coastal wetland landscape may have extensive local variations in stability/resilience and in the key relationships that trigger instabilities. This is illustrated by a case study where dynamically unstable fragmentation is found in two nearby coastal wetlands in North Carolina's Neuse River estuary-Otter Creek Mouth and Anderson Creek. Neither is keeping pace with relative sea level rise, and both show unstable state transitions within the wetland system; but locally stable relationships exist within the wetland systems.

  4. Communicating uncertainties in assessments of future sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wikman-Svahn, P.

    2013-12-01

    How uncertainty should be managed and communicated in policy-relevant scientific assessments is directly connected to the role of science and the responsibility of scientists. These fundamentally philosophical issues influence how scientific assessments are made and how scientific findings are communicated to policymakers. It is therefore of high importance to discuss implicit assumptions and value judgments that are made in policy-relevant scientific assessments. The present paper examines these issues for the case of scientific assessments of future sea level rise. The magnitude of future sea level rise is very uncertain, mainly due to poor scientific understanding of all physical mechanisms affecting the great ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica, which together hold enough land-based ice to raise sea levels more than 60 meters if completely melted. There has been much confusion from policymakers on how different assessments of future sea levels should be interpreted. Much of this confusion is probably due to how uncertainties are characterized and communicated in these assessments. The present paper draws on the recent philosophical debate on the so-called "value-free ideal of science" - the view that science should not be based on social and ethical values. Issues related to how uncertainty is handled in scientific assessments are central to this debate. This literature has much focused on how uncertainty in data, parameters or models implies that choices have to be made, which can have social consequences. However, less emphasis has been on how uncertainty is characterized when communicating the findings of a study, which is the focus of the present paper. The paper argues that there is a tension between on the one hand the value-free ideal of science and on the other hand usefulness for practical applications in society. This means that even if the value-free ideal could be upheld in theory, by carefully constructing and hedging statements characterizing

  5. Generalized Cauchy model of sea level fluctuations with long-range dependence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ming; Li, Jia-Yue

    2017-10-01

    This article suggests the contributions with two highlights. One is to propose a novel model of sea level fluctuations (sea level for short), which is called the generalized Cauchy (GC) process. It provides a new outlook for the description of local and global behaviors of sea level from a view of fractal in that the fractal dimension D that measures the local behavior of sea level and the Hurst parameter H which characterizes the global behavior of sea level are independent of each other. The other is to show that sea level appears multi-fractal in both spatial and time. Such a meaning of multi-fractal is new in the sense that a pair of fractal parameters (D, H) of sea level is varying with measurement sites and time. This research exhibits that the ranges of D and H of sea level, in general, are 1 ≤ D sea level, we shall show that H > 0 . 96 for all data records at all measurement sites, implying that strong LRD may be a general phenomenon of sea level. On the other side, regarding with the local behavior, we will reveal that there appears D = 1 or D ≈ 1 for data records at a few stations and at some time, but D > 0 . 96 at most stations and at most time, meaning that sea level may appear highly local irregularity more frequently than weak local one.

  6. An improved and homogeneous altimeter sea level record from the ESA Climate Change Initiative

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Legeais, Jean-Francois; Ablain, Michael; Zawadzki, Lionel

    2018-01-01

    such as internal validation, comparisons with sea level records from other groups and with in situ measurements, sea level budget closure analyses and comparisons with model outputs. Compared with the previous version of the sea level ECV, we show that use of improved geophysical corrections, careful bias......, the sea level ECV has been measured from space by different altimetry missions that have provided global and regional observations of sea level variations. As part of the Climate Change Initiative (CCI) program of the European Space Agency (ESA) (established in 2010), the Sea Level project (SL_cci) aimed...... reduction between missions and inclusion of new altimeter missions lead to improved sea level products with reduced uncertainties on different spatial and temporal scales. However, there is still room for improvement since the uncertainties remain larger than the GCOS requirements (GCOS, 2011). Perspectives...

  7. Climate related sea-level variations over the past two millennia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemp, Andrew C; Horton, Benjamin P; Donnelly, Jeffrey P; Mann, Michael E; Vermeer, Martin; Rahmstorf, Stefan

    2011-07-05

    We present new sea-level reconstructions for the past 2100 y based on salt-marsh sedimentary sequences from the US Atlantic coast. The data from North Carolina reveal four phases of persistent sea-level change after correction for glacial isostatic adjustment. Sea level was stable from at least BC 100 until AD 950. Sea level then increased for 400 y at a rate of 0.6 mm/y, followed by a further period of stable, or slightly falling, sea level that persisted until the late 19th century. Since then, sea level has risen at an average rate of 2.1 mm/y, representing the steepest century-scale increase of the past two millennia. This rate was initiated between AD 1865 and 1892. Using an extended semiempirical modeling approach, we show that these sea-level changes are consistent with global temperature for at least the past millennium.

  8. 60-year Nordic and arctic sea level reconstruction based on a reprocessed two decade altimetric sea level record and tide gauges

    OpenAIRE

    Svendsen, Peter Limkilde; Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg

    2015-01-01

    Due to the sparsity and often poor quality of data, reconstructing Arctic sea level is highly challenging. We present a reconstruction of Arctic sea level covering 1950 to 2010, using the approaches from Church et al. (2004) and Ray and Douglas (2011). This involves decomposition of an altimetry calibration record into EOFs, and fitting these patterns to a historical tide gauge record.

  9. 60-year Nordic and arctic sea level reconstruction based on a reprocessed two decade altimetric sea level record and tide gauges

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svendsen, Peter Limkilde; Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg

    Due to the sparsity and often poor quality of data, reconstructing Arctic sea level is highly challenging. We present a reconstruction of Arctic sea level covering 1950 to 2010, using the approaches from Church et al. (2004) and Ray and Douglas (2011). This involves decomposition of an altimetry ...... calibration record into EOFs, and fitting these patterns to a historical tide gauge record....

  10. The analysis of Last Interglacial (MIS 5e) relative sea-level indicators: Reconstructing sea-level in a warmer world

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rovere, A.; Raymo, M.E.; Vacchi, M.; Lorscheid, T; Stocchi, P.; Gómez-Pujolf, L.; Harris, D.L.; Casella, E.; O'Leary, M.J.; Hearty, P.J.

    2016-01-01

    The Last Interglacial (MIS 5e, 128–116 ka) is among the most studied past periods in Earth's history. The climate at that time was warmer than today, primarily due to different orbital conditions, with smaller ice sheets and higher sea-level. Field evidence for MIS 5e sea-level was reported from

  11. Comparison of satellite altimetry sea level anomalies and hydrographic observations in the Mediterranean Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Mir Calafat

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Steric sea level (SSL computed from hydrographic observations in the Mediterranean Sea is compared against altimetric sea level anomalies (SLA at seasonal and inter-annual time scales for the period 1993-2008. SSL (referenced to 300 m is computed using two data sets: in situ profiles and gridded products obtained from interpolated observations. The impact of expendable/mechanical bathythermograph (XBT/MBT biases affecting some of the in situ profiles is investigated by comparing both corrected and uncorrected data. For the period 2003-2008 the mass component is estimated from GRACE observations and subtracted from SLA. The analysis of the spatio-temporal distribution of profiles shows that the number of profiles with data below 300 m is a small percentage of the total and that their spatial coverage of the Mediterranean basin is very limited. This is an important handicap for regions where the contribution of the deep layers to SSL is significant. Overall, SSL and SLA are shown to be consistent in the Mediterranean at seasonal time scales, although the annual amplitude of the SSL from in situ profiles and interpolated data is considerably smaller than that of the SLA. The agreement at inter-annual time scales is less good. At some particular locations SSL computed from individual profiles is more correlated with SLA than the gridded products. At basin and sub-basin scales, however, interpolated and in situ observations provide similar results in terms of their correlation with observed SLA. The XBT/MBT bias corrections have little effect on the SSL at the time scales considered in this study.

  12. GHRSST Level 4 G1SST Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 1)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on an operational basis by the JPL OurOcean...

  13. GHRSST Level 4 RAMSSA Australian Regional Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 1)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on an operational basis at the Australian Bureau...

  14. GHRSST Level 4 GAMSSA Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 1)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on an operational basis at the Australian Bureau...

  15. GHRSST Level 4 AVHRR_AMSR_OI Global Blended Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 1)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) global Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on a 0.25 degree grid at the NOAA...

  16. GHRSST Level 4 OSPO Global Nighttime Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on an operational basis at the Office of...

  17. GHRSST Level 4 MUR North America Regional Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 1)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced as a retrospective dataset at the JPL Physical...

  18. GHRSST Level 4 ODYSSEA Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 1)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on an operational basis at Ifremer/CERSAT...

  19. GHRSST Level 4 K10_SST Global 1 meter Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 1)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on an operational basis at the Naval...

  20. GHRSST Level 4 OSTIA Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS versions 1 and 2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on an operational basis at the UK Met Office...

  1. GHRSST Level 4 OSPO Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on an operational basis at the Office of...

  2. GHRSST Level 4 DMI_OI Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on an operational basis by the Danish...

  3. GHRSST Level 4 ODYSSEA Eastern Central Pacific Regional Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 1)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on an operational basis at Ifremer/CERSAT...

  4. GHRSST Level 4 MW_OI Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature analysis (GDS version 2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) global Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on a 0.25 degree grid at Remote Sensing...

  5. Sea level rise under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schleussner, C. F.; Nauels, A.; Rogelj, J.; Mengel, M.; Meinshausen, M.

    2017-12-01

    In order to assess future sea level rise and its impacts, we need to study climate change pathways combined with different scenarios of socioeconomic development. Here, we present Sea Level Rise (SLR) projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) storylines and different year-2100 radiative Forcing Targets (FTs). Future SLR is estimated with a comprehensive SLR emulator that accounts for latest research on additional Antarctic rapid discharge dynamics from hydrofracturing and ice cliff instability. Across all baseline scenario realizations (no dedicated climate mitigation), we find 2100 median SLR relative to 1986-2005 of 102 cm (likely range: 77 to 135 cm) for SSP1, 118 cm (90 to 151 cm) for SSP2, 118 cm (91 to 149 cm) for SSP3, 107 cm (81 to 137 cm) for SSP4, and 144 cm (112 to 184 cm) for SSP5. The 2100 sea level responses for combined SSP-FT scenarios is dominated by the mitigation targets and yield median estimates of 68 cm (56 to 87 cm) for FT 2.6 Wm-2, 76 cm (61 to 107 cm) for FT 3.4 Wm-2, 90 cm (68 to 120 cm) for FT 4.5 Wm-2, and 105 cm (79 to 136 cm) for FT 6.0 Wm-2. Average 2081-2100 annual rates of SLR are 6 mm/yr and 19 mm/yr for the FT 2.6 Wm-2 and the baseline scenarios, respectively. Our model setup allows linking scenario-specific emission and socioeconomic indicators to projected SLR. For limiting median 2100 SSP SLR projections to below 80 cm, we find that 2050 cumulative CO2 emissions since pre-industrial should not exceed around 860 GtC, with the global coal phase-out nearly completed. For SSP mitigation scenarios, the median 2050 carbon price of 90 US$2005 tCO2-1 would correspond to a median 2100 SLR of around 80 cm. Our results confirm that rapid and early emission reductions are essential for limiting 2100 SLR.

  6. Nineteenth and twentieth century sea-level changes in Tasmania and New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gehrels, W. Roland; Callard, S. Louise; Moss, Patrick T.; Marshall, William A.; Blaauw, Maarten; Hunter, John; Milton, J. Andrew; Garnett, Mark H.

    2012-01-01

    Positive deviations from linear sea-level trends represent important climate signals if they are persistent and geographically widespread. This paper documents rapid sea-level rise reconstructed from sedimentary records obtained from salt marshes in the Southwest Pacific region (Tasmania and New Zealand). A new late Holocene relative sea-level record from eastern Tasmania was dated by AMS14C (conventional, high precision and bomb-spike), 137Cs, 210Pb, stable Pb isotopic ratios, trace metals, pollen and charcoal analyses. Palaeosea-level positions were determined by foraminiferal analyses. Relative sea level in Tasmania was within half a metre of present sea level for much of the last 6000 yr. Between 1900 and 1950 relative sea level rose at an average rate of 4.2 ± 0.1 mm/yr. During the latter half of the 20th century the reconstructed rate of relative sea-level rise was 0.7 ± 0.6 mm/yr. Our study is consistent with a similar pattern of relative sea-level change recently reconstructed for southern New Zealand. The change in the rate of sea-level rise in the SW Pacific during the early 20th century was larger than in the North Atlantic and could suggest that northern hemisphere land-based ice was the most significant melt source for global sea-level rise.

  7. Ocean basin volume constraints on global sea level since the Jurassic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seton, M.; Müller, R. D.

    2011-12-01

    Changes in the volume of the ocean basins, predominately via changes in the age-area distribution of oceanic lithosphere, have been suggested as the main driver for long-term eustatic sea-level change. As ocean lithosphere cools and thickens, ocean depth increases. The balance between the abundance of hot and buoyant crust along mid ocean ridges relative to abyssal plains is the primary driving force of long-term sea level changes. The emplacement of volcanic plateaus and chains as well as sedimentation contribute to raising eustatic sea level. Quantifying the average ocean basin depth through time primarily relies on the present day preserved seafloor spreading record, an analysis of the spatio-temporal record of plate boundary processes recorded on the continental margins adjacent to ocean basins as well as a consideration of the rules of plate tectonics, to reconstruct the history of seafloor spreading in the oceanic basins through time. This approach has been successfully applied to predict the magnitude and pattern of eustatic sea-level change since the Cretaceous (Müller et. al. 2008) but uncertainties in reconstructing mid ocean ridges and flanks increase back through time, given that we mainly depend on information preserved in preserved ocean crust. We have reconstructed the age-area distribution of oceanic lithosphere and the plate boundary configurations back to the Jurassic (200 Ma) in order to assess long-term sea-level change from amalgamation to dispersal of Pangaea. We follow the methodology presented in Müller et. al. (2008) but incorporate a new absolute plate motion model derived from Steinberger and Torsvik (2008) prior to 100 Ma, a merged Wessel et. al. (2006) and Wessel and Kroenke (2008) fixed Pacific hotspot reference frame, and a revised model for the formation of Panthalassa and the Cretaceous Pacific. Importantly, we incorporate a model for the break-up of the Ontong Java-Manihiki-Hikurangi plateaus between 120-86 Ma. We extend a

  8. Risk Analysis of Coastal hazard Considering Sea-level Rise and Local Environment in Coastal Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sangjin, P.; Lee, D. K.; KIM, H.; Ryu, J. E.; Yoo, S.; Ryoo, H.

    2014-12-01

    Recently, natural hazards has been more unpredictable with increasing frequency and strength due to climate change. Especially, coastal areas would be more vulnerable in the future because of sea-level rise (SLR). In case of Korea, it is surrounded by oceans and has many big cities at coastal area, thus a hazard prevention plan in coastal area is absolutely necessary. However, prior to making the plan, finding areas at risk would be the first step. In order to find the vulnerable area, local characteristics of coastal areas should also be considered along with SLR. Therefore, the objective of the research is to find vulnerable areas, which could be damaged by coastal hazards considering local environment and SLR of coastal areas. Spatial scope of the research was set up as 1km from the coastline according to the 'coastal management law' in Korea. The assessment was done up to the year of 2050, and the highest sea level rise scenario was used. For risk analysis, biophysical and socioeconomic characteristics were considered as to represent local characteristics of coastal area. Risk analysis was carried out through the combination of 'possibility of hazard' and the 'level of damages', and both of them reflect the above-mentioned regional characteristics. Since the range of inundation was narrowed down to the inundation from typhoon in this research, the possibility of inundation caused by typhoon was estimated by using numerical model, which calculated the height of storm surge considering wave, tide, sea-level pressure and SLR. Also the level of damage was estimated by categorizing the socioeconomic character into four factors; human, infrastructure, ecology and socioeconomic. Variables that represent each factor were selected and used in damage estimation with their classification and weighting value. The result shows that the urban coastal areas are more vulnerable and hazardous than other areas because of socioeconomic factors. The east and the south coast are

  9. Climate Sensitivity, Sea Level, and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Russell, Gary; Kharecha, Pushker

    2013-01-01

    Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3+/-1deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3-4deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change.

  10. Adaptation to the Impacts of Sea Level Rise in Egypt

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Raey, M.; Dewidar, K.R.; El-Hattab, M.

    1999-01-01

    Assessment of the vulnerability and expected socioeconomic losses over the Nile delta coast due to the impact of sea level rise is carried out in details. Impacts of sea level rise over the Governorates of Alexandria and Port Said in particular, are evaluated quantitatively. Analysis of the results at Alexandria Governorate indicate that, if no action is taken, an area of about 30% of the city will be lost due to inundation. Almost 2 million people will have to abandon their homeland; 195,000 jobs will be lost and an economic loss of over $3.5 Billion is expected over the next century. At Port Said Governorate results indicate that beach areas are most severely affected (hence tourism), followed by urban areas. The agriculture sector is the least affected sector. It is estimated that the economic loss is over $ 2.0 Billion for 0.50 m SLR and may exceed $ 4.4 Billion for 1.25 m SLR. Options and costs of adaptation are analyzed and presented. Multi-criteria and decision matrix approaches, based on questionnaire surveys are carried out to identify priorities for the two cases. Analysis of these techniques of two options; the current policy (hard protection measures on some vulnerable areas) and no action (stopping these activities) have the lowest scores. Beach nourishment and integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) have the highest scores, however ICZM has high cost measures. The most cost effective option is the land-use change, however with relatively very high cost measure. It is recommended that an ICZM approach be adopted since it provides a reasonable trade off between costs and cost effectiveness. 14 refs

  11. NCEI ocean heat content, temperature anomalies, salinity anomalies, thermosteric sea level anomalies, halosteric sea level anomalies, and total steric sea level anomalies from 1955 to present calculated from in situ oceanographic subsurface profile data (NCEI Accession 0164586)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This accession contains ocean heat content change, oceanic temperature and salinity changes, and steric sea level change (change in volume without change in mass),...

  12. Australian general practitioners initiate statin therapy primarily on the basis of lipid levels; New Zealand general practitioners use absolute risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilling, Chris; Knight, Josh; Mortimer, Duncan; Petrie, Dennis; Clarke, Philip; Chalmers, John; Kerr, Andrew; Jackson, Rod

    2017-12-01

    To compare the determinants of initial statin prescribing between New Zealand and Australia. New Zealand has a system-wide absolute risk-based approach to primary care cardiovascular disease (CVD) management, while Australia has multiple guidelines. Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis of two observational studies of primary care CVD management from New Zealand (PREDICT-CVD) and Australia (AusHeart). Over 80% of eligible New Zealanders have been screened for CVD risk. PREDICT-CVD is used by approximately one-third of New Zealand GPs to perform web-based CVD risk assessment in routine practice, with the sample consisting of 126,519 individuals risk assessed between 1 January 2007 and 30 June 2014. AusHeart is a cluster-stratified survey of primary care CVD management that enrolled 534 GPs from across Australia, who in turn recruited 1381 patients between 1 April and 30 June 2008. Eligibility was restricted to 55-74year old patients without prior CVD. The CART analyses demonstrated that New Zealand GPs prescribe statins primarily on the basis of absolute risk, while their Australian counterparts are influenced by a variety of individual risk factors, including total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol and diabetes. Countries seeking to improve their management of CVD should consider adopting a 'whole of system' absolute risk-based approach with clear guidelines that are consistent with drug reimbursement rules; and include computerized decision-support tools that aid decision-making and allow monitoring of outcomes and continual improvement of practice. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Eastern Mediterranean sea levels through the last interglacial from a coastal-marine sequence in northern Israel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivan, D.; Sisma-Ventura, G.; Greenbaum, N.; Bialik, O. M.; Williams, F. H.; Tamisiea, M. E.; Rohling, E. J.; Frumkin, A.; Avnaim-Katav, S.; Shtienberg, G.; Stein, M.

    2016-08-01

    A last interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage, MIS5e) marine-coastal sequence has been identified along the Galilee coast of Israel, with the type section located at Rosh Hanikra (RH). The microtidal regime and tectonic stability, along with the detailed stratigraphy of the RH shore, make the study region ideally suited for determining relative sea level (RSL) through the MIS5e interval in the eastern Mediterranean. The sequence contains fossilized microtidal subunits at a few meters above the current sea level. Unfortunately, all fossils were found to be altered, so that U-Th datings cannot be considered to represent initial deposition. We contend that U-Th dating of Strombus bubonius shells (recrystallized to calcite) suffices to indicate a lower limit of ∼110 ± 8 ka for the time sea level dropped below the RH sedimentary sequence. The RH-section comprises three main subunits of a previously determined member (the Yasaf Member): (a) a gravelly unit containing the diagnostic gastropod Strombus bubonius Lamarck (Persististrombus latus), which was deposited in the intertidal to super-tidal stormy zone; (b) Vermetidae reef domes indicating a shallow-water depositional environment; and (c) coarse to medium-sized, bioclastic sandstone, probably deposited in the shallow sub-tidal zone. The sequence overlies three abrasion platforms that are cut by tidal channels at elevations of +0.8 m, +2.6 m and +3.4 m, and which are filled with MIS5e sediments. We present a detailed study of the sequence, with emphasis on stratigraphic, sedimentological, and palaeontological characteristics that indicate sea-level changes. Although without precise absolute dating, the stratigraphic sequence of RH through MIS5e allows us to identify a time-series of RSL positions, using the elevations of three stratigraphic subunits. Reconstructed RSL values range from +1.0 m to +7 m (with uncertainly < 1 m), and most fall within a narrow range of +1.0 to +3.3 m. Toward the end of MIS5e, RSL exceeded

  14. The Holocene palaeogeography and relative sea level for two tidal basins of the German North Sea coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bungenstock, Friederike; Wartenberg, Wolfram; Mauz, Barbara; Freund, Holger; Frechen, Manfred; Weerts, Henk J. T.; Berner, Heinrich

    2014-05-01

    The response of coasts to global sea-level rise is highly variable. Knowledge of driving coastal parameters alongside the regional sea-level history is therefore indispensable when the response to global sea-level rise is to be assessed. Here, we study the Holocene relative sea-level of the south coast of the North Sea which is controlled by a number of very local parameters, as well as by regional glacio-isostatic adjustments. It is therefore crucial to restrict the data acquisition and evaluation to small coastal sections, ideally to single tidal basins, to minimize the sources of uncertainties (Bungenstock & Weerts 2010, 2012). We present data from two tidal basins, Langeoog and Jade Bay. For Langeoog a database derived from 600 cores, 68 km of Boomer seismic data, 33 radiocarbon ages and 8 OSL dates is available. (Bungenstock & Schäfer 2009, Mauz & Bungenstock 2007). For the Jade bay, the database comprises sedimentary markers, pollen and macro remains derived from 68 cores. The sedentary chronology is based on 54 radiocarbon ages and pollen constraints (Wartenberg & Freund 2011, Wartenberg et al. 2013). For both tidal basins the sedimentological record was interpreted in terms of the local paleogeographical development since about 7000 cal BP and its influence on the local relative sea-level curve. While the trend of the relative sea level is similar for both tidal basins, it shows a different altitude. The timing of the main marine transgression within the Langeoog area takes place ~3000 cal. BP whereas the sedimentological record of the Jade Bay shows two prominent transgressions, one for ~5000 cal. BP and one for ~3000 cal. BP. The Langeoog palaeo-environment is continuously characterised by marine influence. Within the Jade Bay two different palaeo-environments could be identified, documenting that from the West to the centre the landscape development in the Jade Bay was drainage driven feeding the associated fen peat with minerogenic water but being

  15. The analysis of Last Interglacial (MIS 5e) relative sea-level indicators: Reconstructing sea-level in a warmer world

    OpenAIRE

    Rovere, A.; Raymo, M.E.; Vacchi, M.; Lorscheid, T; Stocchi, P.; Gómez-Pujolf, L.; Harris, D.L.; Casella, E.; O'Leary, M.J.; Hearty, P.J.

    2016-01-01

    The Last Interglacial (MIS 5e, 128–116 ka) is among the most studied past periods in Earth's history. The climate at that time was warmer than today, primarily due to different orbital conditions, with smaller ice sheets and higher sea-level. Field evidence for MIS 5e sea-level was reported from thousands of sites, but often paleo shorelines were measured with low-accuracy techniques and, in some cases, there are contrasting interpretations about paleo sea-level reconstructions. For this reas...

  16. Potential for bias in 21st century semiempirical sea level projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jevrejeva, S.; Moore, J. C.; Grinsted, A.

    2012-01-01

    We examine the limitations of a semiempirical model characterized by a sea level projection of 73 cm with RCP4.5 scenario by 2100. Calibrating the model with data to 1990 and then simulating the period 1993-2009 produces sea level in close agreement with acceleration in sea level rise observed...... and dynamics of Greenland ice sheet made contributions to the sea level rise in the early 20th century and therefore are included within the semiempirical model calibration period and hence are included in semiempirical sea level projections by 2100. Antarctic response is probably absent from semiempirical...... models, which will lead to a underestimate in sea level rise if, as is probable, Antarctica loses mass by 2100....

  17. Statistical analysis of global surface temperature and sea level using cointegration methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Torben; Johansen, Søren; Thejll, Peter

    2012-01-01

    Global sea levels are rising which is widely understood as a consequence of thermal expansion and melting of glaciers and land-based ice caps. Due to the lack of representation of ice-sheet dynamics in present-day physically-based climate models being unable to simulate observed sea level trends......, semi-empirical models have been applied as an alternative for projecting of future sea levels. There is in this, however, potential pitfalls due to the trending nature of the time series. We apply a statistical method called cointegration analysis to observed global sea level and land-ocean surface air...... temperature, capable of handling such peculiarities. We find a relationship between sea level and temperature and find that temperature causally depends on the sea level, which can be understood as a consequence of the large heat capacity of the ocean. We further find that the warming episode in the 1940s...

  18. Tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures and preceding sea level pressure anomalies in the subtropical North Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Bruce T.

    2003-12-01

    The correspondence of sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies to changes in antecedent large-scale sea level pressure anomalies is investigated using reanalysis data. By statistically examining linearly coupled precursor sea level pressure fields and subsequent SST fields for different lag periods, it is possible to isolate a precursor mode of sea level pressure (SLP) variability in the central subtropical North Pacific that precedes variations in the January-March El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by approximately 12-15 months. A sea level pressure index, which captures the important characteristics of this precursor mode of variability, is developed and evaluated. It is shown that both analyzed and observed versions of the index are significantly correlated with the January-March ENSO one year later. The SLP index is then used to examine the evolution of the surface circulation and temperature structures leading up to mature ENSO events. Initially, the January-March subtropical North Pacific SLP anomalies are associated with changes in the intensity of the subtropical trade wind regime over the North Pacific, as well as with SST anomalies over the eastern equatorial Pacific and subtropical central Pacific. In agreement with the correlation statistics associated with the SLP and lagged NINO3.4 indices, both the sea level pressure field and the SST field subsequently develop ENSO-like structures over the course of the following year. Significant discussion of these results and pertinent areas of future research are provided within the broader context of the ENSO system.

  19. Compounding effects of sea level rise and fluvial flooding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moftakhari, Hamed R; Salvadori, Gianfausto; AghaKouchak, Amir; Sanders, Brett F; Matthew, Richard A

    2017-09-12

    Sea level rise (SLR), a well-documented and urgent aspect of anthropogenic global warming, threatens population and assets located in low-lying coastal regions all around the world. Common flood hazard assessment practices typically account for one driver at a time (e.g., either fluvial flooding only or ocean flooding only), whereas coastal cities vulnerable to SLR are at risk for flooding from multiple drivers (e.g., extreme coastal high tide, storm surge, and river flow). Here, we propose a bivariate flood hazard assessment approach that accounts for compound flooding from river flow and coastal water level, and we show that a univariate approach may not appropriately characterize the flood hazard if there are compounding effects. Using copulas and bivariate dependence analysis, we also quantify the increases in failure probabilities for 2030 and 2050 caused by SLR under representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5. Additionally, the increase in failure probability is shown to be strongly affected by compounding effects. The proposed failure probability method offers an innovative tool for assessing compounding flood hazards in a warming climate.

  20. Investigating Margin and Grounding Line Dynamics with a Coupled Ice and Sea Level Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuchar, J.; Milne, G. A.

    2017-12-01

    We present results from the coupling of an adaptive mesh glaciological model (BISICLES) with a model of glacial isostatic adjustment and sea level. We apply this coupled model to study the deglaciation of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) from the last glacial maximum. The proximity of the GrIS to the much larger Laurentide results in an east-west gradient in sea level rates across Greenland during the deglaciation. We investigate the impacts of this sea level gradient on ice and grounding line dynamics at the margins, as well as the influence of both local and non-local ice on sea level and ice dynamics.

  1. Current state and future perspectives on coupled ice-sheet - sea-level modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Boer, Bas; Stocchi, Paolo; Whitehouse, Pippa L.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.

    2017-08-01

    The interaction between ice-sheet growth and retreat and sea-level change has been an established field of research for many years. However, recent advances in numerical modelling have shed new light on the precise interaction of marine ice sheets with the change in near-field sea level, and the related stability of the grounding line position. Studies using fully coupled ice-sheet - sea-level models have shown that accounting for gravitationally self-consistent sea-level change will act to slow down the retreat and advance of marine ice-sheet grounding lines. Moreover, by simultaneously solving the 'sea-level equation' and modelling ice-sheet flow, coupled models provide a global field of relative sea-level change that is consistent with dynamic changes in ice-sheet extent. In this paper we present an overview of recent advances, possible caveats, methodologies and challenges involved in coupled ice-sheet - sea-level modelling. We conclude by presenting a first-order comparison between a suite of relative sea-level data and output from a coupled ice-sheet - sea-level model.

  2. Inter-annual sea level variability in the southern Gulf of Mexico (1966-1976)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salas-de-León, David Alberto; Monreal-Gómez, María Adela; Salas-Monreal, David; Riveron-Enzastiga, Mayra Lorena; Sánchez-Santillan, Norma Leticia

    2006-04-01

    Hourly time series at seven locations throughout the southern Gulf of Mexico were used to calculate the trend and the inter-annual sea level. The sea level series from January 1966 to December 1976 were filtered using a Lanczos low pass filter to remove oscillations with periods smaller than one year. The results revealed a sea level increment of about 1.4 mm yr-1 from 1966 to 1976 in the southern Gulf of Mexico. The monthly sea level variability obtained after the trends were removed, presented a sea level setup during winter and a sea level depression in summer attributed to seasonal wind conditions. The horizontal representation of averaged sea level in the southern Gulf of Mexico presented a saddle critical point. The associated sea level slope indicated water accumulation at Ciudad Madero in the western side of the gulf and Coatzacoalcos in the southernmost station, and sea level depressions at Tuxpan and Progreso in the southwestern and southeastern side of the gulf, respectively. Nevertheless, one of the most intriguing result is the presence of a Kelvin wave with a two mode oscillation axis that goes from Progreso to Tuxpan.

  3. Tidal wetland stability in the face of human impacts and sea-level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirwan, Matthew L; Megonigal, J Patrick

    2013-12-05

    Coastal populations and wetlands have been intertwined for centuries, whereby humans both influence and depend on the extensive ecosystem services that wetlands provide. Although coastal wetlands have long been considered vulnerable to sea-level rise, recent work has identified fascinating feedbacks between plant growth and geomorphology that allow wetlands to actively resist the deleterious effects of sea-level rise. Humans alter the strength of these feedbacks by changing the climate, nutrient inputs, sediment delivery and subsidence rates. Whether wetlands continue to survive sea-level rise depends largely on how human impacts interact with rapid sea-level rise, and socio-economic factors that influence transgression into adjacent uplands.

  4. Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100 AD

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John; Jevrejeva, Svetlana

    2010-01-01

    We use a physically plausible four parameter linear response equation to relate 2,000 years of global temperatures and sea level. We estimate likelihood distributions of equation parameters using Monte Carlo inversion, which then allows visualization of past and future sea level scenarios....... The model has good predictive power when calibrated on the pre-1990 period and validated against the high rates of sea level rise from the satellite altimetry. Future sea level is projected from intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) temperature scenarios and past sea level from established multi......-proxy reconstructions assuming that the established relationship between temperature and sea level holds from 200 to 2100 ad. Over the last 2,000 years minimum sea level (-19 to -26 cm) occurred around 1730 ad, maximum sea level (12–21 cm) around 1150 AD. Sea level 2090–2099 is projected to be 0.9 to 1.3 m for the A1B...

  5. Expected extreme sea levels at Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp up until year 2100

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brydsten, Lars; Engqvist, Anders; Naeslund, Jens-Ove; Lindborg, Tobias

    2009-01-01

    Literature data on factors that can affect the highest expected shoreline during the operational lifetime of a final repository up until ca 2100 AD have been compiled for Forsmark and Laxemar/Simpevarp. The study takes into consideration eustasy (global sea level), isostasy (isostatic rebound) and their trends, as well as regional (North Sea) and local (Baltic Sea) annual extremes of today's sea levels and those in year 2100. The most uncertain factor of these is the future global sea level change. For this factor, three possible scenarios have been included from the literature, forming an rough uncertainty interval around a case with an 'intermediate' global sea level. To this end, the study thus makes use of information on global sea level change that has been published since the IPCC's (UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) most recent report (2007). The local cumulative impact on the shoreline of the eustatic and isostatic components for both the Forsmark and Laxemar/Simpevarp coastal areas is that the maximum sea level occurs at the end of the investigation period, by year 2100. The interaction of these estimates is discussed in terms of coastal oceanographic aspects and estimated return periods for local extreme sea level-impacting events, including estimated storm surge. Maximum sea levels in year 2100 based on the sea level rise estimates by Rahmstorf are + 254 cm for Forsmark and + 297 cm for Laxemar/Simpevarp, both of these levels with an uncertainty interval of about ± 70 cm. The numbers apply for the worst possible case in regard to future sea level rise, and for occasions of short duration during heavy storms. In this context it is important to note that the data on which these estimates are based are the subject of intense research, and that revisions are therefore to be expected

  6. Expected extreme sea levels at Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp up until year 2100

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brydsten, Lars (Umeaa Univ., Umeaa (Sweden)); Engqvist, Anders (Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden)); Naeslund, Jens-Ove; Lindborg, Tobias (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden))

    2009-01-15

    Literature data on factors that can affect the highest expected shoreline during the operational lifetime of a final repository up until ca 2100 AD have been compiled for Forsmark and Laxemar/Simpevarp. The study takes into consideration eustasy (global sea level), isostasy (isostatic rebound) and their trends, as well as regional (North Sea) and local (Baltic Sea) annual extremes of today's sea levels and those in year 2100. The most uncertain factor of these is the future global sea level change. For this factor, three possible scenarios have been included from the literature, forming an rough uncertainty interval around a case with an 'intermediate' global sea level. To this end, the study thus makes use of information on global sea level change that has been published since the IPCC's (UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) most recent report (2007). The local cumulative impact on the shoreline of the eustatic and isostatic components for both the Forsmark and Laxemar/Simpevarp coastal areas is that the maximum sea level occurs at the end of the investigation period, by year 2100. The interaction of these estimates is discussed in terms of coastal oceanographic aspects and estimated return periods for local extreme sea level-impacting events, including estimated storm surge. Maximum sea levels in year 2100 based on the sea level rise estimates by Rahmstorf are + 254 cm for Forsmark and + 297 cm for Laxemar/Simpevarp, both of these levels with an uncertainty interval of about +- 70 cm. The numbers apply for the worst possible case in regard to future sea level rise, and for occasions of short duration during heavy storms. In this context it is important to note that the data on which these estimates are based are the subject of intense research, and that revisions are therefore to be expected

  7. Statistical analysis of global surface air temperature and sea level using cointegration methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmith, Torben; Johansen, Søren; Thejll, Peter

    Global sea levels are rising which is widely understood as a consequence of thermal expansion and melting of glaciers and land-based ice caps. Due to physically-based models being unable to simulate observed sea level trends, semi-empirical models have been applied as an alternative for projecting...... radiative forcing as an explanatory variable, but unexpectedly find that the sea level does not depend on the forcing. We hypothesize that this is due to a long adjustment time scale of the ocean and show that the number of years of data needed to build statistical models that have the relationship expected...... of future sea levels. There is in this, however, potential pitfalls due to the trending nature of the time series. We apply a statistical method called cointegration analysis to observed global sea level and surface air temperature, capable of handling such peculiarities. We find a relationship between sea...

  8. An Improved 20-Year Arctic Ocean Altimetric Sea Level Data Record

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheng, Yongcun; Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Knudsen, Per

    2015-01-01

    For ocean and climate research, it is essential to get long-term altimetric sea level data that is as accurate as possible. However, the accuracy of the altimetric data is frequently degraded in the interior of the Arctic Ocean due to the presence of seasonal or permanent sea ice. We have...... reprocessed ERS-1/2/Envisat satellite altimetry to develop an improved 20-year sea level dataset for the Arctic Ocean. We have developed both an along-track dataset and three-day gridded sea level anomaly (SLA) maps from September 1992 to April 2012. A major improvement in data coverage was gained...... estimation of sea level changes from satellite altimetry in the Arctic Ocean. The reprocessed dataset exhibit a mean sea level trend of 2.1 +/- 1.3mm/year (without Glacial Isostatic Adjustment correction) covering the Arctic Ocean between 66 degrees N and 82 degrees N with significant higher spatial...

  9. Multidecadal Weakening of Indian Summer Monsoon Circulation Induces an Increasing Northern Indian Ocean Sea Level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swapna, P.; Jyoti, J.; Krishnan, R.; Sandeep, N.; Griffies, S. M.

    2017-10-01

    North Indian Ocean sea level has shown significant increase during last three to four decades. Analyses of long-term climate data sets and ocean model sensitivity experiments identify a mechanism for multidecadal sea level variability relative to global mean. Our results indicate that North Indian Ocean sea level rise is accompanied by a weakening summer monsoon circulation. Given that Indian Ocean meridional heat transport is primarily regulated by the annual cycle of monsoon winds, weakening of summer monsoon circulation has resulted in reduced upwelling off Arabia and Somalia and decreased southward heat transport, and corresponding increase of heat storage in the North Indian Ocean. These changes in turn lead to increased retention of heat and increased thermosteric sea level rise in the North Indian Ocean, especially in the Arabian Sea. These findings imply that rising North Indian Ocean sea level due to weakening of monsoon circulation demands adaptive strategies to enable a resilient South Asian population.

  10. Building Stories about Sea Level Rise through Interactive Visualizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, S. H.; DeLorme, D. E.; Hagen, S. C.

    2013-12-01

    Digital media provide storytellers with dynamic new tools for communicating about scientific issues via interactive narrative visualizations. While traditional storytelling uses plot, characterization, and point of view to engage audiences with underlying themes and messages, interactive visualizations can be described as 'narrative builders' that promote insight through the process of discovery (Dove, G. & Jones, S. 2012, Proc. IHCI 2012). Narrative visualizations are used in online journalism to tell complex stories that allow readers to select aspects of datasets to explore and construct alternative interpretations of information (Segel, E. & Heer, J. 2010, IEEE Trans. Vis. Comp. Graph.16, 1139), thus enabling them to participate in the story-building process. Nevertheless, narrative visualizations also incorporate author-selected narrative elements that help guide and constrain the overall themes and messaging of the visualization (Hullman, J. & Diakopoulos, N. 2011, IEEE Trans. Vis. Comp. Graph. 17, 2231). One specific type of interactive narrative visualization that is used for science communication is the sea level rise (SLR) viewer. SLR viewers generally consist of a base map, upon which projections of sea level rise scenarios can be layered, and various controls for changing the viewpoint and scenario parameters. They are used to communicate the results of scientific modeling and help readers visualize the potential impacts of SLR on the coastal zone. Readers can use SLR viewers to construct personal narratives of the effects of SLR under different scenarios in locations that are important to them, thus extending the potential reach and impact of scientific research. With careful selection of narrative elements that guide reader interpretation, the communicative aspects of these visualizations may be made more effective. This presentation reports the results of a content analysis of a subset of existing SLR viewers selected in order to comprehensively

  11. Late Pleistocene Sea level on the New Jersey Margin: Implications to eustasy and deep-sea temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, J.D.; Sheridan, R.E.; Miller, K.G.; Uptegrove, J.; Cramer, B.S.; Browning, J.V.

    2009-01-01

    We assembled and dated a late Pleistocene sea-level record based on sequence stratigraphy from the New Jersey margin and compared it with published records from fossil uplifted coral reefs in New Guinea, Barbados, and Araki Island, as well as a composite sea-level estimate from scaling of Red Sea isotopic values. Radiocarbon dates, amino acid racemization data, and superposition constrain the ages of large (20-80??m) sea-level falls from New Jersey that correlate with Marine Isotope Chrons (MIC) 2, 3b, 4, 5b, and 6 (the past 130??kyr). The sea-level records for MIC 1, 2, 4, 5e, and 6 are similar to those reported from New Guinea, Barbados, Araki, and the Red Sea; some differences exist among records for MIC 3. Our record consistently provides the shallowest sea level estimates for MIC3 (??? 25-60??m below present); it agrees most closely with the New Guinea record of Chappell (2002; ??? 35-70??m), but contrasts with deeper estimates provided by Araki (??? 85-95??m) and the Red Sea (50-90??m). Comparison of eustatic estimates with benthic foraminiferal ??18O records shows that the deep sea cooled ??? 2.5????C between MIC 5e and 5d (??? 120-110??ka) and that near freezing conditions persisted until Termination 1a (14-15??ka). Sea-level variations between MIC 5b and 2 (ca. 90-20??ka) follow a well-accepted 0.1???/10??m linear variation predicted by ice-growth effects on foraminiferal ??18O values. The pattern of deep-sea cooling follows a previously established hysteresis loop between two stable modes of operation. Cold, near freezing deep-water conditions characterize most of the past 130??kyr punctuated only by two warm intervals (the Holocene/MIC 1 and MIC 5e). We link these variations to changes in Northern Component Water (NCW). ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Sea-level change and projected future flooding along the Egyptian Mediterranean coast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Shaltout

    2015-10-01

    The results indicate that DT can be used to study coastal and deep-water sea-level changes in the study area. The southern Levantine sub-basin sea level has recently risen by an average of 3.1 cm decade−1 and exhibits significant annual sea-level variation of −17 cm to 8 cm. The sea-level variation is significantly affected by several factors: sea-level variation west of the Gibraltar Strait, steric sea level, and sea-surface temperature. The GFDL simulations best describing the recent sea level over the study area, i.e., GFDL-CM3 and GFDL-ESM2M, are used to calculate the two-model ensemble mean (GFDL-2ENM, which indicates that Egypt's Mediterranean coast will experience substantial sea-level rise (SLR this century. The estimated uncertainty over the study area was 4–22 cm by 2100, with the emission assumptions dominating the three sources of uncertainty sources. Comparing the projected SLRs with digital elevation data indicates that Egypt's Mediterranean coast will only be safe from flooding by 2100 if effective adaptation methods are applied.

  13. Modelling the increased frequency of extreme sea levels in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta due to sea level rise and other effects of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kay, S; Caesar, J; Wolf, J; Bricheno, L; Nicholls, R J; Saiful Islam, A K M; Haque, A; Pardaens, A; Lowe, J A

    2015-07-01

    Coastal flooding due to storm surge and high tides is a serious risk for inhabitants of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta, as much of the land is close to sea level. Climate change could lead to large areas of land being subject to increased flooding, salinization and ultimate abandonment in West Bengal, India, and Bangladesh. IPCC 5th assessment modelling of sea level rise and estimates of subsidence rates from the EU IMPACT2C project suggest that sea level in the GBM delta region may rise by 0.63 to 0.88 m by 2090, with some studies suggesting this could be up to 0.5 m higher if potential substantial melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet is included. These sea level rise scenarios lead to increased frequency of high water coastal events. Any effect of climate change on the frequency and severity of storms can also have an effect on extreme sea levels. A shelf-sea model of the Bay of Bengal has been used to investigate how the combined effect of sea level rise and changes in other environmental conditions under climate change may alter the frequency of extreme sea level events for the period 1971 to 2099. The model was forced using atmospheric and oceanic boundary conditions derived from climate model projections and the future scenario increase in sea level was applied at its ocean boundary. The model results show an increased likelihood of extreme sea level events through the 21st century, with the frequency of events increasing greatly in the second half of the century: water levels that occurred at decadal time intervals under present-day model conditions occurred in most years by the middle of the 21st century and 3-15 times per year by 2100. The heights of the most extreme events tend to increase more in the first half of the century than the second. The modelled scenarios provide a case study of how sea level rise and other effects of climate change may combine to produce a greatly increased threat to life and property in the GBM delta by the end

  14. Integrated analysis of beach ridge and lagoon systems as indicator of sea-level changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sander, Lasse; Hede, Mikkel U.; Fruergaard, Mikkel; Morigi, Caterina; Johannessen, Peter N.; Nielsen, Lars; Clemmensen, Lars B.; Nielsen, Lars H.; Pejrup, Morten

    2015-04-01

    Beach ridges and lagoons are common features of the modern coastal landscape in much of Denmark and represent an important part of the Holocene raised marine deposits. We here present our results from investigations into the possibilities of retrieving continuous relative sea-level (RSL) information from these sedimentary archives, as facilitated by the analysis of surface morphology, coring, subsurface imaging, absolute chronology, and modern analogues. The island of Samsø (55˚51'N, 10˚36'E) was chosen as a case study example. While each of the used archives merely covers a part of the mid to late Holocene developments, their joint analysis allows identifying and separating periods of rapid RSL rise, stability and fall over most of the island's marine stage. We present possible correlations of the data from the lagoons with data from a wide beach-ridge system and suggest causal relations of the RSL reconstruction with the spatial arrangements of marine and glacial landforms on Samsø. The integrated use of a geographical perspective combined with geological precision and methodology has proven to be of great value for understanding temporal, spatial, and process relations in the investigated coastal environment. The study stresses the value of analyzing genetically independent though complementary sedimentary archives to retrieve more complete and potentially more robust results. The presented approach may be useful in microtidal, sediment-surplus environments with a transgressive-regressive Holocene RSL history.

  15. A new multidimensional population health indicator for policy makers: absolute level, inequality and spatial clustering - an empirical application using global sub-national infant mortality data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benn K.D. Sartorius

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The need for a multidimensional measure of population health that accounts for its distribution remains a central problem to guide the allocation of limited resources. Absolute proxy measures, like the infant mortality rate (IMR, are limi- ted because they ignore inequality and spatial clustering. We propose a novel, three-part, multidimensional mortality indi- cator that can be used as the first step to differentiate interventions in a region or country. The three-part indicator (MortalityABC index combines absolute mortality rate, the Theil Index to calculate mortality inequality and the Getis-Ord G statistic to determine the degree of spatial clustering. The analysis utilises global sub-national IMR data to empirically illu- strate the proposed indicator. The three-part indicator is mapped globally to display regional/country variation and further highlight its potential application. Developing countries (e.g. in sub-Saharan Africa display high levels of absolute mortality as well as variable mortality inequality with evidence of spatial clustering within certain sub-national units (“hotspots”. Although greater inequality is observed outside developed regions, high mortality inequality and spatial clustering are com- mon in both developed and developing countries. Significant positive correlation was observed between the degree of spatial clustering and absolute mortality. The proposed multidimensional indicator should prove useful for spatial allocation of healthcare resources within a country, because it can prompt a wide range of policy options and prioritise high-risk areas. The new indicator demonstrates the inadequacy of IMR as a single measure of population health, and it can also be adapted to lower administrative levels within a country and other population health measures.

  16. Sea level and turbidity controls on mangrove soil surface elevation change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovelock, Catherine E.; Fernanda Adame, Maria; Bennion, Vicki; Hayes, Matthew; Reef, Ruth; Santini, Nadia; Cahoon, Donald R.

    2015-01-01

    Increases in sea level are a threat to seaward fringing mangrove forests if levels of inundation exceed the physiological tolerance of the trees; however, tidal wetlands can keep pace with sea level rise if soil surface elevations can increase at the same pace as sea level rise. Sediment accretion on the soil surface and belowground production of roots are proposed to increase with increasing sea level, enabling intertidal habitats to maintain their position relative to mean sea level, but there are few tests of these predictions in mangrove forests. Here we used variation in sea level and the availability of sediments caused by seasonal and inter-annual variation in the intensity of La Nina-El Nino to assess the effects of increasing sea level on surface elevation gains and contributing processes (accretion on the surface, subsidence and root growth) in mangrove forests. We found that soil surface elevation increased with mean sea level (which varied over 250 mm during the study) and with turbidity at sites where fine sediment in the water column is abundant. In contrast, where sediments were sandy, rates of surface elevation gain were high, but not significantly related to variation in turbidity, and were likely to be influenced by other factors that deliver sand to the mangrove forest. Root growth was not linked to soil surface elevation gains, although it was associated with reduced shallow subsidence, and therefore may contribute to the capacity of mangroves to keep pace with sea level rise. Our results indicate both surface (sedimentation) and subsurface (root growth) processes can influence mangrove capacity to keep pace with sea level rise within the same geographic location, and that current models of tidal marsh responses to sea level rise capture the major feature of the response of mangroves where fine, but not coarse, sediments are abundant.

  17. Sea level and turbidity controls on mangrove soil surface elevation change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovelock, Catherine E.; Adame, Maria Fernanda; Bennion, Vicki; Hayes, Matthew; Reef, Ruth; Santini, Nadia; Cahoon, Donald R.

    2015-02-01

    Increases in sea level are a threat to seaward fringing mangrove forests if levels of inundation exceed the physiological tolerance of the trees; however, tidal wetlands can keep pace with sea level rise if soil surface elevations can increase at the same pace as sea level rise. Sediment accretion on the soil surface and belowground production of roots are proposed to increase with increasing sea level, enabling intertidal habitats to maintain their position relative to mean sea level, but there are few tests of these predictions in mangrove forests. Here we used variation in sea level and the availability of sediments caused by seasonal and inter-annual variation in the intensity of La Nina-El Nino to assess the effects of increasing sea level on surface elevation gains and contributing processes (accretion on the surface, subsidence and root growth) in mangrove forests. We found that soil surface elevation increased with mean sea level (which varied over 250 mm during the study) and with turbidity at sites where fine sediment in the water column is abundant. In contrast, where sediments were sandy, rates of surface elevation gain were high, but not significantly related to variation in turbidity, and were likely to be influenced by other factors that deliver sand to the mangrove forest. Root growth was not linked to soil surface elevation gains, although it was associated with reduced shallow subsidence, and therefore may contribute to the capacity of mangroves to keep pace with sea level rise. Our results indicate both surface (sedimentation) and subsurface (root growth) processes can influence mangrove capacity to keep pace with sea level rise within the same geographic location, and that current models of tidal marsh responses to sea level rise capture the major feature of the response of mangroves where fine, but not coarse, sediments are abundant.

  18. Coastal Sea Level from CryoSat-2 SARIn Altimetry in Norway

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Idžanović, Martina; Ophaug, Vegard; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

    2017-01-01

    of observations at land-confined tide gauges are not assigned an ocean tide value. With the availability of local air pressure observations and ocean tide predictions, we substitute the standard inverted barometric and ocean tide corrections with local corrections. This gives an improvement of 24% (to 12.2 cm......Conventional (pulse-limited) altimeters determine the sea surface height with an accuracy of a few centimeters over the open ocean. Sea surface heights and tide-gauge sea level serve as each other’s buddy check. However, in coastal areas, altimetry suffers from numerous effects, which degrade its...... conventional altimeters. In this study, we explore the potential of CryoSat-2 to provide valid observations in the Norwegian coastal zone. We do this by comparing time series of CryoSat-2 sea level anomalies with time series of in situ sea level at 22 tide gauges, where the CryoSat-2 sea level anomalies...

  19. Trends in Intense Typhoon Minimum Sea Level Pressure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen L. Durden

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A number of recent publications have examined trends in the maximum wind speed of tropical cyclones in various basins. In this communication, the author focuses on typhoons in the western North Pacific. Rather than maximum wind speed, the intensity of the storms is measured by their lifetime minimum sea level pressure (MSLP. Quantile regression is used to test for trends in storms of extreme intensity. The results indicate that there is a trend of decreasing intensity in the most intense storms as measured by MSLP over the period 1951–2010. However, when the data are broken into intervals 1951–1987 and 1987–2010, neither interval has a significant trend, but the intensity quantiles for the two periods differ. Reasons for this are discussed, including the cessation of aircraft reconnaissance in 1987. The author also finds that the average typhoon intensity is greater in El Nino years, while the intensity of the strongest typhoons shows no significant relation to El Nino Southern Oscillation.

  20. Seasonal cycle of sea level and currents along the coast of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Shankar, D.

    by the Survey of India from hourly measurements and are archived at the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL), UK, along with a history of the datum with respect to which the sea level was measured. A clima- tology is obtained from the monthly sea level... tend to flow along isobars, rather than across them; in the northern hemisphere, a geostrophic current flows with high pressure on its right. Another consequence of the Coriolis effect is that the stress exerted by the wind on the surface of the sea...

  1. A scaling approach to project regional sea level rise and its uncertainties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Perrette

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change causes global mean sea level to rise due to thermal expansion of seawater and loss of land ice from mountain glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets. Locally, sea level can strongly deviate from the global mean rise due to changes in wind and ocean currents. In addition, gravitational adjustments redistribute seawater away from shrinking ice masses. However, the land ice contribution to sea level rise (SLR remains very challenging to model, and comprehensive regional sea level projections, which include appropriate gravitational adjustments, are still a nascent field (Katsman et al., 2011; Slangen et al., 2011. Here, we present an alternative approach to derive regional sea level changes for a range of emission and land ice melt scenarios, combining probabilistic forecasts of a simple climate model (MAGICC6 with the new CMIP5 general circulation models. The contribution from ice sheets varies considerably depending on the assumptions for the ice sheet projections, and thus represents sizeable uncertainties for future sea level rise. However, several consistent and robust patterns emerge from our analysis: at low latitudes, especially in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific, sea level will likely rise more than the global mean (mostly by 10–20%. Around the northeastern Atlantic and the northeastern Pacific coasts, sea level will rise less than the global average or, in some rare cases, even fall. In the northwestern Atlantic, along the American coast, a strong dynamic sea level rise is counteracted by gravitational depression due to Greenland ice melt; whether sea level will be above- or below-average will depend on the relative contribution of these two factors. Our regional sea level projections and the diagnosed uncertainties provide an improved basis for coastal impact analysis and infrastructure planning for adaptation to climate change.

  2. Holocene paleo-sea level in southeastern Brazil: an approach based on vermetids shells

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Perla Baptista de Jesus

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper reconstructs the relative sea level changes during the Holocene on the southeastern Brazilian coastal region (Armação dos Búzios city, at north of Rio de Janeiro state, based on the presence of rocky bottom worm snails, Vermetidae (Mollusca: Gastropoda as bioindicators. Chronology was established by radiocarbon Accelerator Mass Spectrometry technique. Three evolutionary stages of sea level were established: sea-level lower than the current one between 8,148-6,300 cal yr BP, a rising of sea level between 6,300-4,500 cal yr BP, with a transgressive maximum of about 2.4 m above the present level at 4,700-4,500 cal yr BP, and a sea level drop from 4,500 cal yr BP until the present.

  3. Integrated analysis of PALSAR/Radarsat-1 InSAR and ENVISAT altimeter data for mapping of absolute water level changes in Louisiana wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, J.-W.; Lu, Z.; Lee, H.; Shum, C.K.; Swarzenski, C.M.; Doyle, T.W.; Baek, S.-H.

    2009-01-01

    Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) has been used to detect relative water level changes in wetlands. We developed an innovative method to integrate InSAR and satellite radar altimetry for measuring absolute or geocentric water level changes and applied the methodology to remote areas of swamp forest in coastal Louisiana. Coherence analysis of InSAR pairs suggested that the HH polarization is preferred for this type of observation, and polarimetric analysis can help to identify double-bounce backscattering areas in the wetland. ENVISAT radar altimeter-measured 18-Hz (along-track sampling of 417 m) water level data processed with regional stackfile method have been used to provide vertical references for water bodies separated by levees. The high-resolution (~ 40 m) relative water changes measured from ALOS PALSAR L-band and Radarsat-1 C-band InSAR are then integrated with ENVISAT radar altimetry to obtain absolute water level. The resulting water level time series were validated with in situ gauge observations within the swamp forest. We anticipate that this new technique will allow retrospective reconstruction and concurrent monitoring of water conditions and flow dynamics in wetlands, especially those lacking gauge networks.

  4. Modeling the transient response of saline intrusion to rising sea-levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Matt D; Howard, Ken W F

    2011-01-01

    Sea levels are expected to rise as a result of global temperature increases, one implication of which is the potential exacerbation of sea water intrusion into coastal aquifers. Given that approximately 70% of the world's population resides in coastal regions, it is imperative to understand the interaction between fresh groundwater and sea water intrusion in order to best manage available resources. For this study, controlled investigation has been carried out concerning the temporal variation in sea water intrusion as a result of rising sea levels. A series of fixed inland head two-dimensional sea water intrusion models were developed with SEAWAT in order to assess the impact of rising sea levels on the transient migration of saline intrusion in coastal aquifers under a range of hydrogeological property conditions. A wide range of responses were observed for typical hydrogeological parameter values. Systems with a high ratio of hydraulic conductivity to recharge and high effective porosity lagged behind the equilibrium sea water toe positions during sea-level rise, often by many hundreds of meters, and frequently taking several centuries to equilibrate following a cease in sea-level rise. Systems with a low ratio of hydraulic conductivity to recharge and low effective porosity did not develop such a large degree of disequilibrium and generally stabilized within decades following a cease in sea-level rise. This study provides qualitative initial estimates for the expected rate of intrusion and predicted degree of disequilibrium generated by sea-level rise for a range of hydrogeological parameter values. Copyright © 2010 The Author(s). Journal compilation © 2010 National Ground Water Association.

  5. STRATEGIC GEOGRAPHIC POSITIONING OF SEA LEVEL GAUGES TO AID IN EARLY DETECTION OF TSUNAMIS IN THE INTRA-AMERICAS SEA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joshua I. Henson

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The potential impact of past Caribbean tsunamis generated by earthquakes and/or massive submarine slides/slumps, as well as the tsunamigenic potential and population distribution within the Intra-Americas Sea (IAS is examined to help define the optimal location for coastal sea level gauges intended to serve as elements of a regional tsunami warning system. The goal of this study is to identify the minimum number of sea level gauge locations to aid in tsunami detection and provide the most warning time to the largest number of people. We identified 12 initial, prioritized locations for coastal sea level gauge installation. Our study area approximately encompasses 7oN, 59oW to 36oN, 98oW. The results of this systematic approach to assess priority locations for coastal sea level gauges will assist in developing a tsunami warning system (TWS for the IAS by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA and the Regional Sub-Commission for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions (IOCARIBE-GOOS.

  6. Sea Level Change for Norway: Past and Present Observations and Projections to 2100

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, Matthew; Øie Nilsen, Jan Even; Ravndal, Oda; Breili, Kristian; Sande, Hilde; Kierulf, Halfdan; Steffen, Holger; Jansen, Eystein; Carson, Mark; Vestol, Olav

    2016-04-01

    Changes to mean sea level and/or sea level extremes (e.g., storm surges) will lead to changes in coastal impacts. These changes represent a changing exposure or risk to our society. Here we try to synthesize our understanding of past and present observed sea level changes for Norway, as well as providing sea level projections up until 2100. Our primary focus is changes to mean sea level but we also give updated return heights for each coastal municipality in Norway. We first analyse observed sea level changes from the Norwegian tide gauge network and from satellite altimetry. After the tide gauge data have been corrected for the effects of glacial isostatic adjustment, we show that 20th century sea level rise in Norwegian waters is broadly similar to the global average rise. Contributions to the observed sea level change and variability are discussed. We find that rate of sea level rise along the Norwegian coast is significantly higher for the period 1993-2014 than for the period 1960-2010. It is unclear, however, to what extent this higher rate represents natural variability rather than a sustained increase owing to global warming. Our regional sea level projections are based on findings from the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC), and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) output. Average projected 21st century relative sea level change in Norway is -0.10-0.35 m (5 to 95% model ranges which is the likely range in AR5; P>66%) for RCP2.6, -0.05-0.45 m for RCP4.5, and 0.10-0.65 m for RCP8.5. The relative sea level projections can differ as much as 0.50 m from place to place. This pattern is governed by the vertical uplift rates. Quantifying the probability of levels above the likely range (i.e., the upper tail of the probability distribution) remains difficult because information is lacking. And of particular concern is that the ice sheet contribution might have a skewed distribution, which would

  7. Current state and future perspectives on coupled ice-sheet – sea-level modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Boer, Bas; Stocchi, Paolo; Whitehouse, Pippa L.; van de Wal, Roderik S.W.

    2017-01-01

    The interaction between ice-sheet growth and retreat and sea-level change has been an established field of research for many years. However, recent advances in numerical modelling have shed new light on the precise interaction of marine ice sheets with the change in near-field sea level, and the

  8. Bounding probabilistic sea-level projections within the framework of the possibility theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Cozannet, Gonéri; Manceau, Jean-Charles; Rohmer, Jeremy

    2017-01-01

    Despite progresses in climate change science, projections of future sea-level rise remain highly uncertain, especially due to large unknowns in the melting processes affecting the ice-sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. Based on climate-models outcomes and the expertise of scientists concerned with these issues, the IPCC provided constraints to the quantiles of sea-level projections. Moreover, additional physical limits to future sea-level rise have been established, although approximately. However, many probability functions can comply with this imprecise knowledge. In this contribution, we provide a framework based on extra-probabilistic theories (namely the possibility theory) to model the uncertainties in sea-level rise projections by 2100 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. The results provide a concise representation of uncertainties in future sea-level rise and of their intrinsically imprecise nature, including a maximum bound of the total uncertainty. Today, coastal impact studies are increasingly moving away from deterministic sea-level projections, which underestimate the expectancy of damages and adaptation needs compared to probabilistic laws. However, we show that the probability functions used so-far have only explored a rather conservative subset of sea-level projections compliant with the IPCC. As a consequence, coastal impact studies relying on these probabilistic sea-level projections are expected to underestimate the possibility of large damages and adaptation needs.

  9. Comparing tide gauge observations to regional patterns of sea-level change (1961–2003)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slangen, A.B.A.; van de Wal, R.S.W.; Wada, Y.; Vermeersen, L.L.A.

    2014-01-01

    Although the global mean sea-level budget for the20th century can now be closed, the understanding of sealevelchange on a regional scale is still limited. In this studywe compare observations from tide gauges to regional patternsfrom various contributions to sea-level change to seehow much of the

  10. Developing a Learning Progression for Sea Level Rise, a Major Impact of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breslyn, Wayne; McGinnis, J. Randy; McDonald, R. Christopher; Hestness, Emily

    2016-01-01

    We present research from an investigation on developing a learning progression (LP) for sea level rise (SLR), a major effect of global climate change. We began our research by drafting a hypothetical LP for sea level rise, informed by extant knowledge of the topic in the scientific community, in science education literature, and in science…

  11. The land-ice contribution to 21st-century dynamic sea level rise

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Howard, T.; Ridley, J.; Pardaens, A. K.; Hurkmans, R. T. W. L.; Payne, A. J.; Giesen, R. H.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304831603; Lowe, J. A.; Bamber, J. L.; Edwards, T. L.; Oerlemans, J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/06833656X

    2014-01-01

    Climate change has the potential to influence global mean sea level through a number of processes including (but not limited to) thermal expansion of the oceans and enhanced land ice melt. In addition to their contribution to global mean sea level change, these two processes (among others) lead to

  12. Sea-level rise caused by climate change and its implications for society.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mimura, Nobuo

    2013-01-01

    Sea-level rise is a major effect of climate change. It has drawn international attention, because higher sea levels in the future would cause serious impacts in various parts of the world. There are questions associated with sea-level rise which science needs to answer. To what extent did climate change contribute to sea-level rise in the past? How much will global mean sea level increase in the future? How serious are the impacts of the anticipated sea-level rise likely to be, and can human society respond to them? This paper aims to answer these questions through a comprehensive review of the relevant literature. First, the present status of observed sea-level rise, analyses of its causes, and future projections are summarized. Then the impacts are examined along with other consequences of climate change, from both global and Japanese perspectives. Finally, responses to adverse impacts will be discussed in order to clarify the implications of the sea-level rise issue for human society.(Communicated by Kiyoshi HORIKAWA, M.J.A.).

  13. Coastal barrier stratigraphy for Holocene high-resolution sea-level reconstruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costas, Susana; Ferreira, Óscar; Plomaritis, Theocharis A; Leorri, Eduardo

    2016-12-08

    The uncertainties surrounding present and future sea-level rise have revived the debate around sea-level changes through the deglaciation and mid- to late Holocene, from which arises a need for high-quality reconstructions of regional sea level. Here, we explore the stratigraphy of a sandy barrier to identify the best sea-level indicators and provide a new sea-level reconstruction for the central Portuguese coast over the past 6.5 ka. The selected indicators represent morphological features extracted from coastal barrier stratigraphy, beach berm and dune-beach contact. These features were mapped from high-resolution ground penetrating radar images of the subsurface and transformed into sea-level indicators through comparison with modern analogs and a chronology based on optically stimulated luminescence ages. Our reconstructions document a continuous but slow sea-level rise after 6.5 ka with an accumulated change in elevation of about 2 m. In the context of SW Europe, our results show good agreement with previous studies, including the Tagus isostatic model, with minor discrepancies that demand further improvement of regional models. This work reinforces the potential of barrier indicators to accurately reconstruct high-resolution mid- to late Holocene sea-level changes through simple approaches.

  14. Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengel, Matthias; Levermann, Anders; Frieler, Katja; Robinson, Alexander; Marzeion, Ben; Winkelmann, Ricarda

    2016-03-08

    Sea level has been steadily rising over the past century, predominantly due to anthropogenic climate change. The rate of sea level rise will keep increasing with continued global warming, and, even if temperatures are stabilized through the phasing out of greenhouse gas emissions, sea level is still expected to rise for centuries. This will affect coastal areas worldwide, and robust projections are needed to assess mitigation options and guide adaptation measures. Here we combine the equilibrium response of the main sea level rise contributions with their last century's observed contribution to constrain projections of future sea level rise. Our model is calibrated to a set of observations for each contribution, and the observational and climate uncertainties are combined to produce uncertainty ranges for 21st century sea level rise. We project anthropogenic sea level rise of 28-56 cm, 37-77 cm, and 57-131 cm in 2100 for the greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP26, RCP45, and RCP85, respectively. Our uncertainty ranges for total sea level rise overlap with the process-based estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The "constrained extrapolation" approach generalizes earlier global semiempirical models and may therefore lead to a better understanding of the discrepancies with process-based projections.

  15. Sea Level Activities and Changes on the Islands of the Western ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This is a useful input in decision making for sustainable development of coastal resources as well as providing a vital tool to detect tsunami signals for early warning purposes. Keywords: Sea level changes, Western Indian Ocean Islands, Impacts of sea level change. West Indian Ocean Journal of Marine Science Vol.

  16. Current state and future perspectives on coupled ice-sheet – sea-level modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Boer, B.; Stocchi, P.; Whitehouse, P.L.; van de Wal, R.S.W.

    2017-01-01

    The interaction between ice-sheet growth and retreat and sea-level change has been an established fieldof research for many years. However, recent advances in numerical modelling have shed new light on theprecise interaction of marine ice sheets with the change in near-field sea level, and the

  17. Climate change, sea level rise and coastal inundation along part of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Gbolabadru

    This study examines Badagry coastal environment inundations that arise from sea level rise. The study ... temperatures and rising sea levels (IPCC, 2007). Although all .... Topographic map. Badagri NE1, NW1 and NW2. 1:25,000. Federal Surveys Department. 1985. It has however been noted that the IPCC scenarios do.

  18. Coastal sensitivity to sea level rise : a focus on the mid-atlantic region

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-15

    The focus of this product is to identify and review the potential impacts of future sea-level rise based on present scientific understanding. To do so, this product evaluates : several aspects of sea-level rise impacts to the natural environment and ...

  19. Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengel, Matthias; Levermann, Anders; Frieler, Katja; Robinson, Alexander; Marzeion, Ben; Winkelmann, Ricarda

    2016-01-01

    Sea level has been steadily rising over the past century, predominantly due to anthropogenic climate change. The rate of sea level rise will keep increasing with continued global warming, and, even if temperatures are stabilized through the phasing out of greenhouse gas emissions, sea level is still expected to rise for centuries. This will affect coastal areas worldwide, and robust projections are needed to assess mitigation options and guide adaptation measures. Here we combine the equilibrium response of the main sea level rise contributions with their last century's observed contribution to constrain projections of future sea level rise. Our model is calibrated to a set of observations for each contribution, and the observational and climate uncertainties are combined to produce uncertainty ranges for 21st century sea level rise. We project anthropogenic sea level rise of 28–56 cm, 37–77 cm, and 57–131 cm in 2100 for the greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP26, RCP45, and RCP85, respectively. Our uncertainty ranges for total sea level rise overlap with the process-based estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The “constrained extrapolation” approach generalizes earlier global semiempirical models and may therefore lead to a better understanding of the discrepancies with process-based projections. PMID:26903648

  20. Sea-level rise caused by climate change and its implications for society

    Science.gov (United States)

    MIMURA, Nobuo

    2013-01-01

    Sea-level rise is a major effect of climate change. It has drawn international attention, because higher sea levels in the future would cause serious impacts in various parts of the world. There are questions associated with sea-level rise which science needs to answer. To what extent did climate change contribute to sea-level rise in the past? How much will global mean sea level increase in the future? How serious are the impacts of the anticipated sea-level rise likely to be, and can human society respond to them? This paper aims to answer these questions through a comprehensive review of the relevant literature. First, the present status of observed sea-level rise, analyses of its causes, and future projections are summarized. Then the impacts are examined along with other consequences of climate change, from both global and Japanese perspectives. Finally, responses to adverse impacts will be discussed in order to clarify the implications of the sea-level rise issue for human society. PMID:23883609

  1. Understanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wahl, T.; Haigh, I.D.; Nicholls, R.J.; Arns, A.; Dangendorf, S.; Hinkel, J.; Slangen, A.B.A.

    2017-01-01

    One of the main consequences of mean sea level rise (SLR) on human settlements is an increase in flood risk due to an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme sea levels (ESL). While substantial research efforts are directed towards quantifying projections and uncertainties of future

  2. Monthly Variations in Sea Level at the Island of Zanzibar | Mahongo ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Western Indian Ocean Journal of Marine Science ... Air pressure and rainfall remained relatively constant during the 20-year study period, but there were trends in sea level, northeast winds, southeast winds and air temperature. Monthly ... The trend in sea level (9%) appeared to be mainly correlated with northeast winds.

  3. The sleep of elite athletes at sea level and high altitude: a comparison of sea-level natives and high-altitude natives (ISA3600)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roach, Gregory D; Schmidt, Walter F; Aughey, Robert J; Bourdon, Pitre C; Soria, Rudy; Claros, Jesus C Jimenez; Garvican-Lewis, Laura A; Buchheit, Martin; Simpson, Ben M; Hammond, Kristal; Kley, Marlen; Wachsmuth, Nadine; Gore, Christopher J; Sargent, Charli

    2013-01-01

    Background Altitude exposure causes acute sleep disruption in non-athletes, but little is known about its effects in elite athletes. The aim of this study was to examine the effects of altitude on two groups of elite athletes, that is, sea-level natives and high-altitude natives. Methods Sea-level natives were members of the Australian under-17 soccer team (n=14). High-altitude natives were members of a Bolivian under-20 club team (n=12). Teams participated in an 18-day (19 nights) training camp in Bolivia, with 6 nights at near sea level in Santa Cruz (430 m) and 13 nights at high altitude in La Paz (3600 m). Sleep was assessed on every day/night using activity monitors. Results The Australians’ sleep was shorter, and of poorer quality, on the first night at altitude compared with sea level. Sleep quality returned to normal by the end of the first week at altitude, but sleep quantity had still not stabilised at its normal level after 2 weeks. The quantity and quality of sleep obtained by the Bolivians was similar, or greater, on all nights at altitude compared with sea level. The Australians tended to obtain more sleep than the Bolivians at sea level and altitude, but the quality of the Bolivians’ sleep tended to be better than that of the Australians at altitude. Conclusions Exposure to high altitude causes acute and chronic disruption to the sleep of elite athletes who are sea-level natives, but it does not affect the sleep of elite athletes who are high-altitude natives. PMID:24282197

  4. The sleep of elite athletes at sea level and high altitude: a comparison of sea-level natives and high-altitude natives (ISA3600).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roach, Gregory D; Schmidt, Walter F; Aughey, Robert J; Bourdon, Pitre C; Soria, Rudy; Claros, Jesus C Jimenez; Garvican-Lewis, Laura A; Buchheit, Martin; Simpson, Ben M; Hammond, Kristal; Kley, Marlen; Wachsmuth, Nadine; Gore, Christopher J; Sargent, Charli

    2013-12-01

    Altitude exposure causes acute sleep disruption in non-athletes, but little is known about its effects in elite athletes. The aim of this study was to examine the effects of altitude on two groups of elite athletes, that is, sea-level natives and high-altitude natives. Sea-level natives were members of the Australian under-17 soccer team (n=14). High-altitude natives were members of a Bolivian under-20 club team (n=12). Teams participated in an 18-day (19 nights) training camp in Bolivia, with 6 nights at near sea level in Santa Cruz (430 m) and 13 nights at high altitude in La Paz (3600 m). Sleep was assessed on every day/night using activity monitors. The Australians' sleep was shorter, and of poorer quality, on the first night at altitude compared with sea level. Sleep quality returned to normal by the end of the first week at altitude, but sleep quantity had still not stabilised at its normal level after 2 weeks. The quantity and quality of sleep obtained by the Bolivians was similar, or greater, on all nights at altitude compared with sea level. The Australians tended to obtain more sleep than the Bolivians at sea level and altitude, but the quality of the Bolivians' sleep tended to be better than that of the Australians at altitude. Exposure to high altitude causes acute and chronic disruption to the sleep of elite athletes who are sea-level natives, but it does not affect the sleep of elite athletes who are high-altitude natives.

  5. An improved and homogeneous altimeter sea level record from the ESA Climate Change Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legeais, Jean-François; Ablain, Michaël; Zawadzki, Lionel; Zuo, Hao; Johannessen, Johnny A.; Scharffenberg, Martin G.; Fenoglio-Marc, Luciana; Joana Fernandes, M.; Baltazar Andersen, Ole; Rudenko, Sergei; Cipollini, Paolo; Quartly, Graham D.; Passaro, Marcello; Cazenave, Anny; Benveniste, Jérôme

    2018-02-01

    Sea level is a very sensitive index of climate change since it integrates the impacts of ocean warming and ice mass loss from glaciers and the ice sheets. Sea level has been listed as an essential climate variable (ECV) by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). During the past 25 years, the sea level ECV has been measured from space by different altimetry missions that have provided global and regional observations of sea level variations. As part of the Climate Change Initiative (CCI) program of the European Space Agency (ESA) (established in 2010), the Sea Level project (SL_cci) aimed to provide an accurate and homogeneous long-term satellite-based sea level record. At the end of the first phase of the project (2010-2013), an initial version (v1.1) of the sea level ECV was made available to users (Ablain et al., 2015). During the second phase of the project (2014-2017), improved altimeter standards were selected to produce new sea level products (called SL_cci v2.0) based on nine altimeter missions for the period 1993-2015 (https://doi.org/10.5270/esa-sea_level_cci-1993_2015-v_2.0-201612" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.5270/esa-sea_level_cci-1993_2015-v_2.0-201612; Legeais and the ESA SL_cci team, 2016c). Corresponding orbit solutions, geophysical corrections and altimeter standards used in this v2.0 dataset are described in detail in Quartly et al. (2017). The present paper focuses on the description of the SL_cci v2.0 ECV and associated uncertainty and discusses how it has been validated. Various approaches have been used for the quality assessment such as internal validation, comparisons with sea level records from other groups and with in situ measurements, sea level budget closure analyses and comparisons with model outputs. Compared with the previous version of the sea level ECV, we show that use of improved geophysical corrections, careful bias reduction between missions and inclusion of new altimeter missions lead to improved sea level products

  6. Reassessment of 20th century global mean sea level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dangendorf, Sönke; Marcos, Marta; Wöppelmann, Guy; Conrad, Clinton P; Frederikse, Thomas; Riva, Riccardo

    2017-06-06

    The rate at which global mean sea level (GMSL) rose during the 20th century is uncertain, with little consensus between various reconstructions that indicate rates of rise ranging from 1.3 to 2 mm⋅y -1 Here we present a 20th-century GMSL reconstruction computed using an area-weighting technique for averaging tide gauge records that both incorporates up-to-date observations of vertical land motion (VLM) and corrections for local geoid changes resulting from ice melting and terrestrial freshwater storage and allows for the identification of possible differences compared with earlier attempts. Our reconstructed GMSL trend of 1.1 ± 0.3 mm⋅y -1 (1σ) before 1990 falls below previous estimates, whereas our estimate of 3.1 ± 1.4 mm⋅y -1 from 1993 to 2012 is consistent with independent estimates from satellite altimetry, leading to overall acceleration larger than previously suggested. This feature is geographically dominated by the Indian Ocean-Southern Pacific region, marking a transition from lower-than-average rates before 1990 toward unprecedented high rates in recent decades. We demonstrate that VLM corrections, area weighting, and our use of a common reference datum for tide gauges may explain the lower rates compared with earlier GMSL estimates in approximately equal proportion. The trends and multidecadal variability of our GMSL curve also compare well to the sum of individual contributions obtained from historical outputs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. This, in turn, increases our confidence in process-based projections presented in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

  7. Reassessment of 20th century global mean sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dangendorf, Sönke; Marcos, Marta; Wöppelmann, Guy; Conrad, Clinton P.; Frederikse, Thomas; Riva, Riccardo

    2017-01-01

    The rate at which global mean sea level (GMSL) rose during the 20th century is uncertain, with little consensus between various reconstructions that indicate rates of rise ranging from 1.3 to 2 mm⋅y−1. Here we present a 20th-century GMSL reconstruction computed using an area-weighting technique for averaging tide gauge records that both incorporates up-to-date observations of vertical land motion (VLM) and corrections for local geoid changes resulting from ice melting and terrestrial freshwater storage and allows for the identification of possible differences compared with earlier attempts. Our reconstructed GMSL trend of 1.1 ± 0.3 mm⋅y−1 (1σ) before 1990 falls below previous estimates, whereas our estimate of 3.1 ± 1.4 mm⋅y−1 from 1993 to 2012 is consistent with independent estimates from satellite altimetry, leading to overall acceleration larger than previously suggested. This feature is geographically dominated by the Indian Ocean–Southern Pacific region, marking a transition from lower-than-average rates before 1990 toward unprecedented high rates in recent decades. We demonstrate that VLM corrections, area weighting, and our use of a common reference datum for tide gauges may explain the lower rates compared with earlier GMSL estimates in approximately equal proportion. The trends and multidecadal variability of our GMSL curve also compare well to the sum of individual contributions obtained from historical outputs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. This, in turn, increases our confidence in process-based projections presented in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. PMID:28533403

  8. Using environmental heterogeneity to plan for sea-level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Elizabeth A; Nibbelink, Nathan P

    2017-12-01

    Environmental heterogeneity is increasingly being used to select conservation areas that will provide for future biodiversity under a variety of climate scenarios. This approach, termed conserving nature's stage (CNS), assumes environmental features respond to climate change more slowly than biological communities, but will CNS be effective if the stage were to change as rapidly as the climate? We tested the effectiveness of using CNS to select sites in salt marshes for conservation in coastal Georgia (U.S.A.), where environmental features will change rapidly as sea level rises. We calculated species diversity based on distributions of 7 bird species with a variety of niches in Georgia salt marshes. Environmental heterogeneity was assessed across six landscape gradients (e.g., elevation, salinity, and patch area). We used 2 approaches to select sites with high environmental heterogeneity: site complementarity (environmental diversity [ED]) and local environmental heterogeneity (environmental richness [ER]). Sites selected based on ER predicted present-day species diversity better than randomly selected sites (up to an 8.1% improvement), were resilient to areal loss from SLR (1.0% average areal loss by 2050 compared with 0.9% loss of randomly selected sites), and provided habitat to a threatened species (0.63 average occupancy compared with 0.6 average occupancy of randomly selected sites). Sites selected based on ED predicted species diversity no better or worse than random and were not resilient to SLR (2.9% average areal loss by 2050). Despite the discrepancy between the 2 approaches, CNS is a viable strategy for conservation site selection in salt marshes because the ER approach was successful. It has potential for application in other coastal areas where SLR will affect environmental features, but its performance may depend on the magnitude of geological changes caused by SLR. Our results indicate that conservation planners that had heretofore excluded low

  9. Principles and reconstruction of the ancient sea levels during the Quaternary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, L.; Flexor, J.M.; Suguio, K.

    1986-01-01

    This work focused the multiple aspects related to the ''reconstruction of the ancient sea level during the Quaternary''. The relative sea level, fluctuations are produced by true variations of the level (eustasy) and by changes in the land level (tectonism and isostasy). The changes of the relative levels are reconstructed through several evidence of these fluctuations, which are recognised in time and space. To define their situation in space is necessary to know their present altitude in relation to their original altitude, that is, to determine their position in relation to the sea level during their formation or sedimentation. Their situation in time is determined by measuring the moment of their formation or sedimentation, using for this the dating methods (isotopic, archeological, etc.) When numerous ancient levels could be reconstructed, spread through a considerable time interval, is possible to delineate the sea level fluctuation curve for this period. (C.D.G.) [pt

  10. Relationship between sea level and climate forcing by CO2 on geological timescales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Gavin L; Rohling, Eelco J

    2013-01-22

    On 10(3)- to 10(6)-year timescales, global sea level is determined largely by the volume of ice stored on land, which in turn largely reflects the thermal state of the Earth system. Here we use observations from five well-studied time slices covering the last 40 My to identify a well-defined and clearly sigmoidal relationship between atmospheric CO(2) and sea level on geological (near-equilibrium) timescales. This strongly supports the dominant role of CO(2) in determining Earth's climate on these timescales and suggests that other variables that influence long-term global climate (e.g., topography, ocean circulation) play a secondary role. The relationship between CO(2) and sea level we describe portrays the "likely" (68% probability) long-term sea-level response after Earth system adjustment over many centuries. Because it appears largely independent of other boundary condition changes, it also may provide useful long-range predictions of future sea level. For instance, with CO(2) stabilized at 400-450 ppm (as required for the frequently quoted "acceptable warming" of 2 °C), or even at AD 2011 levels of 392 ppm, we infer a likely (68% confidence) long-term sea-level rise of more than 9 m above the present. Therefore, our results imply that to avoid significantly elevated sea level in the long term, atmospheric CO(2) should be reduced to levels similar to those of preindustrial times.

  11. Recent Changes in Land Water Storage and Its Contribution to Sea Level Variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Yoshihide; Reager, John T.; Chao, Benjamin F.; Wang, Jida; Lo, Min-Hui; Song, Chunqiao; Li, Yuwen; Gardner, Alex S.

    2016-01-01

    Sea level rise is generally attributed to increased ocean heat content and increased rates glacier and ice melt. However, human transformations of Earth's surface have impacted water exchange between land, atmosphere, and ocean, ultimately affecting global sea level variations. Impoundment of water in reservoirs and artificial lakes has reduced the outflow of water to the sea, while river runoff has increased due to groundwater mining, wetland and endorheic lake storage losses, and deforestation. In addition, climate-driven changes in land water stores can have a large impact on global sea level variations over decadal timescales. Here, we review each component of negative and positive land water contribution separately in order to highlight and understand recent changes in land water contribution to sea level variations.

  12. Sea level anomaly on the Patagonian continental shelf: Trends, annual patterns and geostrophic flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saraceno, M.; Piola, A. R.; Strub, P. T.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract We study the annual patterns and linear trend of satellite sea level anomaly (SLA) over the southwest South Atlantic continental shelf (SWACS) between 54ºS and 36ºS. Results show that south of 42°S the thermal steric effect explains nearly 100% of the annual amplitude of the SLA, while north of 42°S it explains less than 60%. This difference is due to the halosteric contribution. The annual wind variability plays a minor role over the whole continental shelf. The temporal linear trend in SLA ranges between 1 and 5 mm/yr (95% confidence level). The largest linear trends are found north of 39°S, at 42°S and at 50°S. We propose that in the northern region the large positive linear trends are associated with local changes in the density field caused by advective effects in response to a southward displacement of the South Atlantic High. The causes of the relative large SLA trends in two southern coastal regions are discussed as a function meridional wind stress and river discharge. Finally, we combined the annual cycle of SLA with the mean dynamic topography to estimate the absolute geostrophic velocities. This approach provides the first comprehensive description of the seasonal component of SWACS circulation based on satellite observations. The general circulation of the SWACS is northeastward with stronger/weaker geostrophic currents in austral summer/winter. At all latitudes, geostrophic velocities are larger (up to 20 cm/s) close to the shelf‐break and decrease toward the coast. This spatio‐temporal pattern is more intense north of 45°S. PMID:27840784

  13. An improved and homogeneous altimeter sea level record from the ESA Climate Change Initiative

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-F. Legeais

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Sea level is a very sensitive index of climate change since it integrates the impacts of ocean warming and ice mass loss from glaciers and the ice sheets. Sea level has been listed as an essential climate variable (ECV by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS. During the past 25 years, the sea level ECV has been measured from space by different altimetry missions that have provided global and regional observations of sea level variations. As part of the Climate Change Initiative (CCI program of the European Space Agency (ESA (established in 2010, the Sea Level project (SL_cci aimed to provide an accurate and homogeneous long-term satellite-based sea level record. At the end of the first phase of the project (2010–2013, an initial version (v1.1 of the sea level ECV was made available to users (Ablain et al., 2015. During the second phase of the project (2014–2017, improved altimeter standards were selected to produce new sea level products (called SL_cci v2.0 based on nine altimeter missions for the period 1993–2015 (https://doi.org/10.5270/esa-sea_level_cci-1993_2015-v_2.0-201612; Legeais and the ESA SL_cci team, 2016c. Corresponding orbit solutions, geophysical corrections and altimeter standards used in this v2.0 dataset are described in detail in Quartly et al. (2017. The present paper focuses on the description of the SL_cci v2.0 ECV and associated uncertainty and discusses how it has been validated. Various approaches have been used for the quality assessment such as internal validation, comparisons with sea level records from other groups and with in situ measurements, sea level budget closure analyses and comparisons with model outputs. Compared with the previous version of the sea level ECV, we show that use of improved geophysical corrections, careful bias reduction between missions and inclusion of new altimeter missions lead to improved sea level products with reduced uncertainties on different spatial and

  14. GGOS Focus Area 3: Understanding and Forecasting Sea-Level Rise and Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schöne, Tilo; Shum, Ck; Tamisiea, Mark; Woodworth, Philip

    2017-04-01

    Sea level and its change have been measured for more than a century. Especially for coastal nations, deltaic regions, and coastal-oriented industries, observations of tides, tidal extremes, storm surges, and sea level rise at the interannual or longer scales have substantial impacts on coastal vulnerability towards resilience and sustainability of world's coastal regions. To date, the observed global sea level rise is largely associated with climate related changes. To find the patterns and fingerprints of those changes, and to e.g., separate the land motion from sea level signals, different monitoring techniques have been developed. Some of them are local, e.g., tide gauges, while others are global, e.g., satellite altimetry. It is well known that sea level change and land vertical motion varies regionally, and both signals need to be measured in order to quantify relative sea level at the local scale. The Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) and its services contribute in many ways to the monitoring of the sea level. These includes tide gauge observations, estimation of gravity changes, satellite altimetry, InSAR/Lidar, GNSS-control of tide gauges, providing ground truth sites for satellite altimetry, and importantly the maintenance of the International Reference Frame. Focus Area 3 (Understanding and Forecasting Sea-Level Rise and Variability) of GGOS establishes a platform and a forum for researchers and authorities dealing with estimating global and local sea level changes in a 10- to 30-year time span, and its project to the next century or beyond. It presents an excellent opportunity to emphasize the global, through to regional and local, importance of GGOS to a wide range of sea-level related science and practical applications. Focus Area 3 works trough demonstration projects to highlight the value of geodetic techniques to sea level science and applications. Contributions under a call for participation (http://www.ggos.org/Applications/theme3_SL

  15. Atmospheric forcing of decadal Baltic Sea level variability in the last 200 years. A statistical analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huenicke, B. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Kuestenforschung

    2008-11-06

    This study aims at the estimation of the impact of different atmospheric factors on the past sealevel variations (up to 200 years) in the Baltic Sea by statistically analysing the relationship between Baltic Sea level records and observational and proxy-based reconstructed climatic data sets. The focus lies on the identification and possible quantification of the contribution of sealevel pressure (wind), air-temperature and precipitation to the low-frequency (decadal and multi-decadal) variability of Baltic Sea level. It is known that the wind forcing is the main factor explaining average Baltic Sea level variability at inter-annual to decadal timescales, especially in wintertime. In this thesis it is statistically estimated to what extent other regional climate factors contribute to the spatially heterogeneous Baltic Sea level variations around the isostatic trend at multi-decadal timescales. Although the statistical analysis cannot be completely conclusive, as the potential climate drivers are all statistically interrelated to some degree, the results indicate that precipitation should be taken into account as an explanatory variable for sea-level variations. On the one hand it has been detected that the amplitude of the annual cycle of Baltic Sea level has increased throughout the 20th century and precipitation seems to be the only factor among those analysed (wind through SLP field, barometric effect, temperature and precipitation) that can account for this evolution. On the other hand, precipitation increases the ability to hindcast inter-annual variations of sea level in some regions and seasons, especially in the Southern Baltic in summertime. The mechanism by which precipitation exerts its influence on Baltic Sea level is not ascertained in this statistical analysis due to the lack of long salinity time series. This result, however, represents a working hypothesis that can be confirmed or disproved by long simulations of the Baltic Sea system - ocean

  16. Lithostratigraphy, depositional history and sea level changes of the Cauvery Basin, southern India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muthuvairvasamy Ramkumar

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The sedimentary sequence exposed in the erstwhile Tiruchirapalli district hosts a more or less complete geological record of the Upper Cretaceous-Tertiary period. Systematic field mapping, collation of data on the micro-meso scale lithology, sedimentary structures, petrography, faunal assemblage and facies relationships of these rocks, in the light of modern stratigraphic concepts, helped to enumerate the lithostratigraphic setup and depositional history of the basin. Spatial and temporal variations of the lithologies and revised stratigraphic units are presented in this paper. Many high frequency sea level cycles (presumably fourth or higher order which stack up to form third order sea level cycles (six in number, which in turn form part of second order cycles (two in number, including seven eustatic sea level peaks, have been recorded in this basin. Trend analysis of sea level curves indicates a gradual increase of the sea level from Barremian to Coniacian and a gradual decrease from Coniacian to Danian. Such lasting sea level trends had their influence on the sedimentation pattern and facies association. It is inferred that depositional bathymetry was maintained at a shallow-moderate level, primarily influenced by a lack of major subsidence during the depositional history of this basin. The study also revealed a prevalent simple basin filling process and dominant control by sea level changes, rather than tectonic movements over the depositional regime.

  17. Sea level height, sea surface temperature, and tuna yields in the Panama bight during El Niño

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. J. Pedraza

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Between 1988 and 1998, annual tuna landings at Buenaventura (Colombian Pacific are correlated with the sea surface temperature in the central Equatorial Pacific (r=0.78, p<0.05 and the sea level height at Buenaventura (r=0.76, p<0.05 and Balboa (Panama (r=0.79, p<0.05. Seasonal oceanic upwelling is forced by the Panama wind jet, which may favour oceanic fisheries such as tuna. Here we first apply a bivariate correlation method (Pyper and Peterman, 1994 and then a multivariate approach (principal components analysis or PCA to investigate the relationships of these environmental variables with landings. With the first method, we find that landing is best correlated with the sea surface temperature in the Niño 3 region, whereas the other relationships are less clear. In contrast, with PCA we find that PC1 explains 90.6% of the total variance and suggests that sea surface temperature plays a major role in determining tuna availability in the area (especially during El Niño events. Since PC2 is mainly correlated with sea level height at Balboa but only represents 6.8% of the total variance, we suggest that oceanic upwelling effects on tuna landings at Buenaventura are not significant at interannual scales.

  18. Level and origin of Iodine-129 in the Baltic Sea

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hou, XL.; Dahlgaard, H.; Nielsen, SP.; Kučera, Jan

    2002-01-01

    Roč. 61, č. 3 (2002), s. 331-343 ISSN 0265-931X R&D Projects: GA AV ČR KSK4055109 Keywords : lodine-129 * Baltic sea * neutron activation analysis * seawater Subject RIV: DN - Health Impact of the Environment Quality Impact factor: 0.674, year: 2002

  19. Sea Level Change and Coastal Climate Services: The Way Forward

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    le Cozannet, G.; Nicholls, R.J.; Hinkel, J.; Sweet, W.V.; McInnes, K.L.; Van de Wal, R.S.E.; Slangen, A.B.A.; Lowe, J.A.; White, K.D.

    2017-01-01

    For many climate change impacts such as drought and heat waves, global and nationalframeworks for climate services are providing ever more critical support to adaptation activities.Coastal zones are especially in need of climate services for adaptation, as they are increasinglythreatened by sea

  20. Geomorphic expression of late Quaternary sea level changes along ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Recently, notches have been used to estimate land–sea interactions along the Mediterranean coastline (Pirazzoli 1986;. Pirazzoli et al 1996; Rust and Kershaw 2000; ..... iolite units of the MIS-5 in the region. Moreover,. Baskaran et al (1989) have reported the. 230. Th/234. U age of Diu miliolite to be 178 (+41 and −28) ka.

  1. Sea Level Rise Impacts on Precipitation-Induced Flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buzzanga, B. A.

    2016-12-01

    Global sea level rise (SLR) is one of the most immediate impacts of climate change, and poses a significant threat to low-lying coastal communities worldwide. The metropolitan region of Hampton Roads in Southeastern Virginia is one such community, and one where knowledge surrounding SLR is rapidly accumulating. However, most of the research is focused exclusively on surface water processes despite the presence of a shallow groundwater table closely connected to them. SLR will continue to cause the groundwater table to increase in tidally influenced areas of Hampton Road, and thereby decrease storage capacity of the unsaturated zone (UZ). This study investigates how reduced unsaturated storage changes the rainfall-runoff relationship and the resulting areal-flood hazard spectrum. We choose a tidal watershed in Hampton Roads to conduct a conceptual yet realistic simulation of the hydrologic cycle using ten years of historical precipitation data with SLR scenarios from 0 m (current) to 2 m in 0.3048 m intervals. Groundwater infiltration from the land surface, recharge, and evapotranspiration are simulated using the Unsaturated-Zone Flow package with MODFLOW-NWT.Groundwater rise is simulated by increasing the stage of the tidal stream that drains the watershed. Precipitation and overland runoff are simulated using the surface water model SWMM. The two models are coupled to permit the exchange of boundary condition values at each time step. An ensemble approach is taken to test model sensitivity to parameters configurations and determine the contribution of SLR to runoff generation. The primary result of this study quantifies the relationship between SLR and runoff which enables decision makers to more effectively plan for, minimize risk of, and adapt to flooding hazards. This investigation also assesses how water content in the UZ changes in response to precipitation for different SLR scenarios. This result has widespread importance, such as decisions in crop choice or

  2. Repeated Measurement of Absolute and Relative Judgments of Loudness: Clinical Relevance for Prescriptive Fitting of Aided Target Gains for soft, Comfortable, and Loud, But Ok Sound Levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Formby, Craig; Payne, JoAnne; Yang, Xin; Wu, Delphanie; Parton, Jason M

    2017-02-01

    This study was undertaken with the purpose of streamlining clinical measures of loudness growth to facilitate and enhance prescriptive fitting of nonlinear hearing aids. Repeated measures of loudness at 500 and 3,000 Hz were obtained bilaterally at monthly intervals over a 6-month period from three groups of young adult listeners. All volunteers had normal audiometric hearing sensitivity and middle ear function, and all denied problems related to sound tolerance. Group 1 performed judgments of soft and loud, but OK for presentation of ascending sound levels. We defined these judgments operationally as absolute judgments of loudness. Group 2 initially performed loudness judgments across a continuum of seven loudness categories ranging from judgments of very soft to uncomfortably loud for presentation of ascending sound levels per the Contour Test of Loudness; we defined these judgments as relative judgments of loudness. In the same session, they then performed the absolute judgments for soft and loud, but OK sound levels. Group 3 performed the same set of loudness judgments as did group 2, but the task order was reversed such that they performed the absolute judgments initially within each test session followed by the relative judgments. The key findings from this study were as follows: (1) Within group, the absolute and relative tasks yielded clinically similar judgments for soft and for loud, but OK sound levels. These judgments were largely independent of task order, ear, frequency, or trial order within a given session. (2) Loudness judgments increased, on average, by ∼3 dB between the first and last test session, which is consistent with the commonly reported acclimatization effect reported for incremental changes in loudness discomfort levels as a consequence of chronic bilateral hearing aid use. (3) Measured and predicted comfortable judgments of loudness were in good agreement for the individual listener and for groups of listeners. These comfortable

  3. Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L.; Fletcher, Charles H.; Frazer, Neil; Erikson, Li; Storlazzi, Curt D.

    2017-01-01

    Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. In most coastal regions, the amount of sea-level rise occurring over years to decades is significantly smaller than normal ocean-level fluctuations caused by tides, waves, and storm surge. However, even gradual sea-level rise can rapidly increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. So far, global-scale estimates of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise have not considered elevated water levels due to waves, and thus underestimate the potential impact. Here we use extreme value theory to combine sea-level projections with wave, tide, and storm surge models to estimate increases in coastal flooding on a continuous global scale. We find that regions with limited water-level variability, i.e., short-tailed flood-level distributions, located mainly in the Tropics, will experience the largest increases in flooding frequency. The 10 to 20 cm of sea-level rise expected no later than 2050 will more than double the frequency of extreme water-level events in the Tropics, impairing the developing economies of equatorial coastal cities and the habitability of low-lying Pacific island nations.

  4. Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L; Fletcher, Charles H; Frazer, Neil; Erikson, Li; Storlazzi, Curt D

    2017-05-18

    Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. In most coastal regions, the amount of sea-level rise occurring over years to decades is significantly smaller than normal ocean-level fluctuations caused by tides, waves, and storm surge. However, even gradual sea-level rise can rapidly increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. So far, global-scale estimates of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise have not considered elevated water levels due to waves, and thus underestimate the potential impact. Here we use extreme value theory to combine sea-level projections with wave, tide, and storm surge models to estimate increases in coastal flooding on a continuous global scale. We find that regions with limited water-level variability, i.e., short-tailed flood-level distributions, located mainly in the Tropics, will experience the largest increases in flooding frequency. The 10 to 20 cm of sea-level rise expected no later than 2050 will more than double the frequency of extreme water-level events in the Tropics, impairing the developing economies of equatorial coastal cities and the habitability of low-lying Pacific island nations.

  5. Present-day sea level rise: a synthesis; Hausse actuelle du niveau de la mer: synthese

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cazenave, A.; Llovel, W. [Laboratoire d' Etudes en Geophysique et Oceanographie Spatiales (LEGOS), Observatoire Midi-Pyrenees, 31 - Toulouse (France); Lombard, A. [CNES, 31 - Toulouse (France)

    2008-11-15

    Measuring sea level change and understanding its causes have improved considerably in the recent years, essentially because new in situ and remote sensing data sets have become available. Here we report on the current knowledge of present-day sea level change. We briefly present observational results on sea level change from satellite altimetry since 1993 and tide gauges for the past century. We next discuss recent progress made in quantifying the processes causing sea level change on time scales ranging from years to decades, i.e., thermal expansion, land ice mass loss and land water storage change. For the 1993-2003 decade, the sum of climate-related contributions agree well (within the error bars) with the altimetry-based sea level, half of the observed rate of rise being due to ocean thermal expansion, land ice plus land waters explaining the other half. Since about 2003, thermal expansion increase has stopped, whereas the sea level continues to rise, although at a reduced rate compared to the previous decade (2.5 mm/yr versus 3.1 mm/yr). Recent increases in glacier melting and ice mass loss from the ice sheets appear able to account alone for the rise in sea level reported over the last five years. (authors)

  6. Uncertainties in Steric Sea Level Change Estimation During the Satellite Altimeter Era: Concepts and Practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacIntosh, C. R.; Merchant, C. J.; von Schuckmann, K.

    2017-01-01

    This article presents a review of current practice in estimating steric sea level change, focussed on the treatment of uncertainty. Steric sea level change is the contribution to the change in sea level arising from the dependence of density on temperature and salinity. It is a significant component of sea level rise and a reflection of changing ocean heat content. However, tracking these steric changes still remains a significant challenge for the scientific community. We review the importance of understanding the uncertainty in estimates of steric sea level change. Relevant concepts of uncertainty are discussed and illustrated with the example of observational uncertainty propagation from a single profile of temperature and salinity measurements to steric height. We summarise and discuss the recent literature on methodologies and techniques used to estimate steric sea level in the context of the treatment of uncertainty. Our conclusions are that progress in quantifying steric sea level uncertainty will benefit from: greater clarity and transparency in published discussions of uncertainty, including exploitation of international standards for quantifying and expressing uncertainty in measurement; and the development of community "recipes" for quantifying the error covariances in observations and from sparse sampling and for estimating and propagating uncertainty across spatio-temporal scales.

  7. Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengel, Matthias; Nauels, Alexander; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich

    2018-02-20

    Sea-level rise is a major consequence of climate change that will continue long after emissions of greenhouse gases have stopped. The 2015 Paris Agreement aims at reducing climate-related risks by reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero and limiting global-mean temperature increase. Here we quantify the effect of these constraints on global sea-level rise until 2300, including Antarctic ice-sheet instabilities. We estimate median sea-level rise between 0.7 and 1.2 m, if net-zero greenhouse gas emissions are sustained until 2300, varying with the pathway of emissions during this century. Temperature stabilization below 2 °C is insufficient to hold median sea-level rise until 2300 below 1.5 m. We find that each 5-year delay in near-term peaking of CO 2 emissions increases median year 2300 sea-level rise estimates by ca. 0.2 m, and extreme sea-level rise estimates at the 95th percentile by up to 1 m. Our results underline the importance of near-term mitigation action for limiting long-term sea-level rise risks.

  8. Numerical simulation of saltwater intrusion in response to sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langevin, C.D.; Dausman, A.M.

    2005-01-01

    A two dimensional numerical model of variable-density groundwater flow and dispersive solute transport was used to predict the extent, rate, and lag time of saltwater intrusion in response to various sea-level rise scenarios. Three simulations were performed with varying rates of sea-level rise. For the first simulation, sea-level rise was specified at a rate of 0.9 mm/yr, which is the slowest rate of sea-level rise estimated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). After 100 years, the 250 mg/L chloride isochlor moved inland by about 40 m, and required an additional 8 years for the system to reach equilibrium. For the next simulation, sea-level rise was specified at 4.8 mm/yr, which is the central value of the IPCC estimate. For this moderate rate of sea-level rise, the 250 mg/L isochlor moved inland by about 740 m after 100 years, and required an additional 10 years for the system to reach equilibrium. For the fastest rate of sea level rise estimated by IPCC (8.8 mm/yr), the 250 mg/L isochlor moved inland by about 1800 m after 100 years, and required more than 50 years to reach equilibrium. Copyright ASCE 2005.

  9. Estimation of sea level variations with GPS/GLONASS-reflectometry technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padokhin, A. M.; Kurbatov, G. A.; Andreeva, E. S.; Nesterov, I. A.; Nazarenko, M. O.; Berbeneva, N. A.; Karlysheva, A. V.

    2017-11-01

    In the present paper we study GNSS - reflectometry methods for estimation of sea level variations using a single GNSSreceiver, which are based on the multipath propagation effects caused by the reflection of navigational signals from the sea surface. Such multipath propagation results in the appearance of the interference pattern in the Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) of GNSS signals at small satellite elevation angles, which parameters are determined by the wavelength of the navigational signal and height of the antenna phase center above the reflecting sea surface. In current work we used GPS and GLONASS signals and measurements at two working frequencies of both systems to study sea level variations which almost doubles the amount of observations compared to GPS-only tide gauge. For UNAVCO sc02 station and collocated Friday Harbor NOAA tide gauge we show good agreement between GNSS-reflectometry and traditional mareograph sea level data.

  10. Sea level measured by tide gauges from global oceans as part of the Joint Archive for Sea Level (JASL) from 1846-01-01 to 2015-07-31

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This collection contains the complete holdings of the Joint Archive for Sea Level (JASL) for sea level data that have been quality controlled, assessed, and...

  11. Sandy berm and beach-ridge formation in relation to extreme sea-levels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bendixen, Mette; Clemmensen, Lars B; Kroon, Aart

    2013-01-01

    The formation of berms and their transformation into beach ridges in a micro-tidal environment is coupled to wave run-up and overtopping during extreme sea levels. A straight-forward comparison between extreme sea levels due to storm-surges and active berm levels is impossible in the semi...... of extreme sea level events is identified using thirty-three well described extreme events throughout a period of 15 years. Analysis of the meteorological conditions during these events revealed that berm formation only occurred during 20% of all extreme events when onshore winds, high-energy wave action......-enclosed bays along the Baltic Sea. Quite often, the maximum water levels do not coincide with the maximum intensity of the wave driven processes because of seiches in the Baltic. In this paper, we look into the joined distribution of extreme water levels and high-energetic wave conditions at Feddet, a sandy...

  12. Wind-Driven Sea-Level Variation Influences Dynamics of Salt Marsh Vegation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kim, Daehyun; Cairns, David; Bartholdy, Jesper

    2011-01-01

    Long-term variation of mean sea level has been considered the primary exogenous factor of vegetation dynamics in salt marshes. In this study, we address the importance of short-term, wind-induced rise of the sea surface in such biogeographic changes. There was an unusual opportunity for examining...

  13. Relict faunal testimony for sea-level fluctuations off Myanmar (Burma)

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Panchang, R.; Nigam, R.; Raviprasad, G.V.; Rajagopalan, G.; Ray, D.K.; Hla, U Ko Yi

    .R., Hale, R.E., Paterne, M., Pirazzoli, P.A. and Ridley T.W.N. 2006. Postglacial sea-level changes in the northern South China Sea continental shelf: Evidence for a post-8200 calendar yr BP meltwater pulse. Quaternary International, 145-146 : 55...

  14. Late quaternary sea level changes of Gabes coastal plain and shelf ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 125; Issue 1. Late quaternary sea level changes of ... and the fluvial discharges are consistent. Actual morphologic trend deduced from different environment coasts (sandy coasts, sea cliffs and tidal flat) is marked by accumulation of marine sands and progradation.

  15. Estimates of twenty-first century sea-level changes for Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, Matthew J. R.; Breili, Kristian; Kierulf, Halfdan P.

    2014-03-01

    In this work we establish a framework for estimating future regional sea-level changes for Norway. Following recently published works, we consider how different physical processes drive non-uniform sea-level changes by accounting for spatial variations in (1) ocean density and circulation (2) ice and ocean mass changes and associated gravitational effects on sea level and (3) vertical land motion arising from past surface loading change and associated gravitational effects on sea level. An important component of past and present sea-level change in Norway is glacial isostatic adjustment. Central to our study, therefore, is a reassessment of vertical land motion using a far larger set of new observations from a permanent GNSS network. Our twenty-first century sea-level estimates are split into two parts. Firstly, we show regional projections largely based on findings from the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4) and dependent on the emission scenarios A2, A1B and B1. These indicate that twenty-first century relative sea-level changes in Norway will vary between -0.2 to 0.3 m (1-sigma ± 0.13 m). Secondly, we explore a high-end scenario, in which a global atmospheric temperature rise of up to 6 °C and emerging collapse for some areas of the Antarctic ice sheets are assumed. Using this approach twenty-first century relative sea-level changes in Norway are found to vary between 0.25 and 0.85 m (min/max ± 0.45 m). We attach no likelihood to any of our projections owing to the lack of understanding of some of the processes that cause sea-level change.

  16. Environmental safety evaluation in test sea disposal of low-level radioactive wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-01-01

    The study results on the environmental safety in the test sea disposal of low-level wastes by Subcommittee on Radioactive Waste Safety Technology in Nuclear Safety Commission are given in connection with the test disposal of radioactive wastes into sea reported by the Nuclear Safety Bureau. The Subcommittee concludes that the effect of the test disposal of radioactive wastes into sea on the environment is extremely small. The contents are as follows. The full text of the report; attached data, (1) prediction of the concentrations of radioactive nuclides in sea, (2) calculation of the concentrations of radioactive nuclides in marine life with biological paths, and (3) estimation of exposure dose in general people; references (1) radiation exposure of the personnel engaged in sea disposal, (2) the effect of a sea disaster during ocean transport. (J.P.N.)

  17. Impact of remote oceanic forcing on Gulf of Alaska sea levels and mesoscale circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melsom, Arne; Metzger, E. Joseph; Hurlburt, Harley E.

    2003-11-01

    We examine the relative importance of regional wind forcing and teleconnections by an oceanic pathway for impact on interannual ocean circulation variability in the Gulf of Alaska. Any additional factors that contribute to this variability, such as freshwater forcing from river runoff, are disregarded. The study is based on results from numerical simulations, sea level data from tide gauge stations, and sea surface height anomalies from satellite altimeter data. At the heart of this investigation is a comparison of ocean simulations that include and exclude interannual oceanic teleconnections of an equatorial origin. Using lagged correlations, the model results imply that 70-90% of the interannual coastal sea level variance in the Gulf of Alaska can be related to interannual sea levels at La Libertad, Equador. These values are higher than the corresponding range from sea level data, which is 25-55%. When oceanic teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific are excluded in the model, the explained variance becomes about 20% or less. During poleward propagation the coastally trapped sea level signal in the model is less attenuated than the observed signal. In the Gulf of Alaska we find well-defined sea level peaks in the aftermath of El Niño events. The interannual intensity of eddies in the Gulf of Alaska also peaks after El Niño events; however, these maxima are less clear after weak and moderate El Niño events. The interannual variations in eddy activity intensity are predominantly governed by the regional atmospheric forcing.

  18. Arctic Sea Level Change over the altimetry era and reconstructed over the last 60 years

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Svendsen, Peter Limkilde; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg

    The Arctic Ocean process severe limitations on the use of altimetry and tide gauge data for sea level studies and prediction due to the presence of seasonal or permanent sea ice. In order to overcome this issue we reprocessed all altimetry data with editing tailored to Arctic conditions, hereby...... on this together with tide gauge information. From our reconstruction, we found that the Arctic mean sea level trend is around 1.5 mm +/- 0.3 mm/y for the period 1950 to 2010, between 68ºN and 82ºN. This value is in good agreement with the global mean trend of 1.8 +/- 0.3 mm/y over the same period as found....... Good altimetric data is seen to crucial for sea level studies and profoundly for sea level reconstruction where we present a 60 years sea level reconstruction based on this new data set. We here present a new multi-decade altimetric dataset and a 60 year reconstruction of sea level based...

  19. Spatial Hedonic Models for Measuring the Impact of Sea-Level Rise on Coastal Real Estate

    OpenAIRE

    Okmyung Bin; Ben Poulter; Christopher F. Dumas; John C. Whitehead

    2009-01-01

    This study uses a unique integration of geospatial and hedonic property data to estimate the impact of sea-level rise on coastal real estate in North Carolina. North Carolina’s coastal plain is one of several large terrestrial systems around the world threatened by rising sea-levels. High-resolution topographic LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) data are used to provide accurate inundation maps for all properties that will be at risk under six different sea-level rise scenarios. A simulation...

  20. Meteorologically induced modulation in sea level off Tikkavanipalem Coast - Central east coast of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Joseph, A.; Desai, R.G.P.; VijayKumar, K.; Mehra, P.; Nagvekar, S.

    , the piling-up effect as- sociated with this landward wind does not contribute to an increase in the positive residual sea level elevation because during the same period there is a southwesterly along-shore wind that acts to depress the sea level at the study.... The unidirectional (landward blowing) cross-shore wind is rather weak (,2 m/s), and, therefore, its contribution is to a weak piling-up effect and a resulting weak rise in sea level (positive residual elevation) at the study area. However, during the same period...

  1. Observed sea-level rise in the north Indian Ocean coasts during the past century

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Unnikrishnan, A.S.

    . In those days, the necessity arose mainly to monitor the time of high tide and low tide and the sea level heights at the time of high tide and low tide. Normally, tide gauges are installed in the harbours. By analysing the past data, predictions... recent and historic geodetic data. Proc. Ind. Acad. Sci. (Earth Planet. Sci.) 112, 331-345. Peltier, W.R., 2001. Global Istostatic Adjustment and Modern Instrumental Records of Relative Sea Level History. In Sea Level Rise - History and Consequences...

  2. Impacts of climate change and sea level rise to Danish near shore ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vestergaard, P.

    2001-01-01

    Salt marshes and sand dunes are important types of coastal, terrestrial nature, which like other terrestrial ecosystems will be sensible to the future changes in climate, which have been predicted. Due to the processes acting in their morphogenesis and in the development and composition of their ecosystems, they will not least be influenced by sea level rise. Especially a strong impact of a sea level rise of about 50 cm (midrange of the projected global sea level rise) for the next century can be expected on Danish salt marshes, considering their limited vertical range (50-100 cm). (LN)

  3. Statistical analysis of the acceleration of Baltic mean sea-level rise, 1900-2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Birgit Hünicke

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available We analyse annual mean sea-level records from tide-gauges located in the Baltic and parts of the North Sea with the aim of detecting an acceleration of sea-level rise over the 20textsuperscript{th} and 21textsuperscript{st} centuries. The acceleration is estimated as a (1 fit to a polynomial of order two in time, (2 a long-term linear increase in the rates computed over gliding overlapping decadal time segments, and (3 a long-term increase of the annual increments of sea level.The estimation methods (1 and (2 prove to be more powerful in detecting acceleration when tested with sea-level records produced in global climate model simulations. These methods applied to the Baltic-Sea tide-gauges are, however, not powerful enough to detect a significant acceleration in most of individual records, although most estimated accelerations are positive. This lack of detection of statistically significant acceleration at the individual tide-gauge level can be due to the high-level of local noise and not necessarily to the absence of acceleration.The estimated accelerations tend to be stronger in the north and east of the Baltic Sea. Two hypothesis to explain this spatial pattern have been explored. One is that this pattern reflects the slow-down of the Glacial Isostatic Adjustment. However, a simple estimation of this effect suggests that this slow-down cannot explain the estimated acceleration. The second hypothesis is related to the diminishing sea-ice cover over the 20textsuperscript{th} century. The melting o of less saline and colder sea-ice can lead to changes in sea-level. Also, the melting of sea-ice can reduce the number of missing values in the tide-gauge records in winter, potentially influencing the estimated trends and acceleration of seasonal mean sea-level This hypothesis cannot be ascertained either since the spatial pattern of acceleration computed for winter and summer separately are very similar. The all-station-average-record displays an

  4. Population dynamics of Hawaiian seabird colonies vulnerable to sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatfield, Jeff S.; Reynolds, Michelle H.; Seavy, Nathaniel E.; Krause, Crystal M.

    2012-01-01

    Globally, seabirds are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats both at sea and on land. Seabirds typically nest colonially and show strong fidelity to natal colonies, and such colonies on low-lying islands may be threatened by sea-level rise. We used French Frigate Shoals, the largest atoll in the Hawaiian Archipelago, as a case study to explore the population dynamics of seabird colonies and the potential effects sea-level rise may have on these rookeries. We compiled historic observations, a 30-year time series of seabird population abundance, lidar-derived elevations, and aerial imagery of all the islands of French Frigate Shoals. To estimate the population dynamics of 8 species of breeding seabirds on Tern Island from 1980 to 2009, we used a Gompertz model with a Bayesian approach to infer population growth rates, density dependence, process variation, and observation error. All species increased in abundance, in a pattern that provided evidence of density dependence. Great Frigatebirds (Fregata minor), Masked Boobies (Sula dactylatra), Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda), Spectacled Terns (Onychoprion lunatus), and White Terns (Gygis alba) are likely at carrying capacity. Density dependence may exacerbate the effects of sea-level rise on seabirds because populations near carrying capacity on an island will be more negatively affected than populations with room for growth. We projected 12% of French Frigate Shoals will be inundated if sea level rises 1 m and 28% if sea level rises 2 m. Spectacled Terns and shrub-nesting species are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise, but seawalls and habitat restoration may mitigate the effects of sea-level rise. Losses of seabird nesting habitat may be substantial in the Hawaiian Islands by 2100 if sea levels rise 2 m. Restoration of higher-elevation seabird colonies represent a more enduring conservation solution for Pacific seabirds.

  5. Population dynamics of Hawaiian seabird colonies vulnerable to sea-level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatfield, Jeff S; Reynolds, Michelle H; Seavy, Nathaniel E; Krause, Crystal M

    2012-08-01

    Globally, seabirds are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats both at sea and on land. Seabirds typically nest colonially and show strong fidelity to natal colonies, and such colonies on low-lying islands may be threatened by sea-level rise. We used French Frigate Shoals, the largest atoll in the Hawaiian Archipelago, as a case study to explore the population dynamics of seabird colonies and the potential effects sea-level rise may have on these rookeries. We compiled historic observations, a 30-year time series of seabird population abundance, lidar-derived elevations, and aerial imagery of all the islands of French Frigate Shoals. To estimate the population dynamics of 8 species of breeding seabirds on Tern Island from 1980 to 2009, we used a Gompertz model with a Bayesian approach to infer population growth rates, density dependence, process variation, and observation error. All species increased in abundance, in a pattern that provided evidence of density dependence. Great Frigatebirds (Fregata minor), Masked Boobies (Sula dactylatra), Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda), Spectacled Terns (Onychoprion lunatus), and White Terns (Gygis alba) are likely at carrying capacity. Density dependence may exacerbate the effects of sea-level rise on seabirds because populations near carrying capacity on an island will be more negatively affected than populations with room for growth. We projected 12% of French Frigate Shoals will be inundated if sea level rises 1 m and 28% if sea level rises 2 m. Spectacled Terns and shrub-nesting species are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise, but seawalls and habitat restoration may mitigate the effects of sea-level rise. Losses of seabird nesting habitat may be substantial in the Hawaiian Islands by 2100 if sea levels rise 2 m. Restoration of higher-elevation seabird colonies represent a more enduring conservation solution for Pacific seabirds. Conservation Biology ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology. No claim to original

  6. The sleep of elite athletes at sea level and high altitude: a comparison of sea-level natives and high-altitude natives (ISA3600)

    OpenAIRE

    Roach, Gregory D; Schmidt, Walter F; Aughey, Robert J; Bourdon, Pitre C; Soria, Rudy; Claros, Jesus C Jimenez; Garvican-Lewis, Laura A; Buchheit, Martin; Simpson, Ben M; Hammond, Kristal; Kley, Marlen; Wachsmuth, Nadine; Gore, Christopher J; Sargent, Charli

    2013-01-01

    Background Altitude exposure causes acute sleep disruption in non-athletes, but little is known about its effects in elite athletes. The aim of this study was to examine the effects of altitude on two groups of elite athletes, that is, sea-level natives and high-altitude natives. Methods Sea-level natives were members of the Australian under-17 soccer team (n=14). High-altitude natives were members of a Bolivian under-20 club team (n=12). Teams participated in an 18-day (19 nights) training c...

  7. Tidal marsh plant responses to elevated CO2 , nitrogen fertilization, and sea level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adam Langley, J; Mozdzer, Thomas J; Shepard, Katherine A; Hagerty, Shannon B; Patrick Megonigal, J

    2013-05-01

    Elevated CO2 and nitrogen (N) addition directly affect plant productivity and the mechanisms that allow tidal marshes to maintain a constant elevation relative to sea level, but it remains unknown how these global change drivers modify marsh plant response to sea level rise. Here we manipulated factorial combinations of CO2 concentration (two levels), N availability (two levels) and relative sea level (six levels) using in situ mesocosms containing a tidal marsh community composed of a sedge, Schoenoplectus americanus, and a grass, Spartina patens. Our objective is to determine, if elevated CO2 and N alter the growth and persistence of these plants in coastal ecosystems facing rising sea levels. After two growing seasons, we found that N addition enhanced plant growth particularly at sea levels where plants were most stressed by flooding (114% stimulation in the + 10 cm treatment), and N effects were generally larger in combination with elevated CO2 (288% stimulation). N fertilization shifted the optimal productivity of S. patens to a higher sea level, but did not confer S. patens an enhanced ability to tolerate sea level rise. S. americanus responded strongly to N only in the higher sea level treatments that excluded S. patens. Interestingly, addition of N, which has been suggested to accelerate marsh loss, may afford some marsh plants, such as the widespread sedge, S. americanus, the enhanced ability to tolerate inundation. However, if chronic N pollution reduces the availability of propagules of S. americanus or other flood-tolerant species on the landscape scale, this shift in species dominance could render tidal marshes more susceptible to marsh collapse. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  8. Thresholds of sea-level rise rate and sea-level rise acceleration rate in a vulnerable coastal wetland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Wei; Biber, Patrick; Bethel, Matthew

    2017-12-01

    Feedbacks among inundation, sediment trapping, and vegetation productivity help maintain coastal wetlands facing sea-level rise (SLR). However, when the SLR rate exceeds a threshold, coastal wetlands can collapse. Understanding the threshold helps address key challenges in ecology-nonlinear response of ecosystems to environmental change, promotes communication between ecologists and resource managers, and facilitates decision-making in climate change policies. We studied the threshold of SLR rate and developed a new threshold of SLR acceleration rate on sustainability of coastal wetlands as SLR is likely to accelerate due to enhanced anthropogenic forces. Deriving these two thresholds depends on the temporal scale, the interaction of SLR with other environmental factors, and landscape metrics, which have not been fully accounted for before this study. We chose a representative marine-dominated estuary in the northern Gulf of Mexico, Grand Bay in Mississippi, to test the concept of SLR thresholds. We developed a mechanistic model to simulate wetland change and then derived the SLR thresholds for Grand Bay. The model results show that the threshold of SLR rate in Grand Bay is 11.9 mm/year for 2050, and it drops to 8.4 mm/year for 2100 using total wetland area as a landscape metric. The corresponding SLR acceleration rate thresholds are 3.02 × 10 -4  m/year 2 and 9.62 × 10 -5  m/year 2 for 2050 and 2100, respectively. The newly developed SLR acceleration rate threshold can help quantify the temporal lag before the rapid decline in wetland area becomes evident after the SLR rate threshold is exceeded, and cumulative SLR a wetland can adapt to under the SLR acceleration scenarios. Based on the thresholds, SLR that will adversely impact the coastal wetlands in Grand Bay by 2100 will fall within the likely range of SLR under a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), highlighting the need to avoid RCP8.5 to preserve these marshes.

  9. Multiproxy assessment of Holocene relative sea-level changes in the western Mediterranean: sea-level variability and improvements in the definition of the isostatic signal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacchi, Matteo; Rovere, Alessio; Marriner, Nick; Morhange, Christophe; Spada, Giorgio; Fontana, Alessandro

    2016-04-01

    After the review of 918 radiocarbon dated Relative Sea-Level (RSL) data-points we present here the first quality-controlled database constraining the Holocene sea-level histories of the western Mediterranean Sea (Spain, France, Italy, Slovenia, Croatia, Malta and Tunisia). We reviewed and standardized the geological RSL data-points using a new multi-proxy methodology based on: (1) modern taxa assemblages in Mediterranean lagoons and marshes; (2) beachrock characteristics (cement fabric and chemistry, sedimentary structures); and (3) the modern distribution of Mediterranean fixed biological indicators. These RSL data-points were coupled with the large number of archaeological RSL indicators available for the western Mediterranean. We assessed the spatial variability of RSL histories for 22 regions and compared these with the ICE-5G VM2 GIA model. In the western Mediterranean, RSL rose continuously for the whole Holocene with a sudden slowdown at ~7.5 ka BP and a further deceleration during the last ~4.0 ka BP, after which time observed RSL changes are mainly related to variability in isostatic adjustment. The sole exception is southern Tunisia, where data show evidence of a mid-Holocene high-stand compatible with the isostatic impacts of the melting history of the remote Antarctic ice sheet. Our results indicate that late-Holocene sea-level rise was significantly slower than the current one. First estimates of GIA contribution indicate that, at least in the northwestern sector, it accounts at least for the 25-30% of the ongoing sea-level rise recorded by Mediterranean tidal gauges. Such contribution is less constrained at lower latitudes due to the lower quality of the late Holocene index points. Future applications of spatio-temporal statistical techniques are required to better quantify the gradient of the isostatic contribution and to provide improved context for the assessment of 20th century acceleration of Mediterranean sea-level rise.

  10. Do we have to take an acceleration of sea level rise into account?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dillingh, D.; Baart, F.; de Ronde, J.

    2012-04-01

    In view of preservation of safety against inundation and of the many values and functions of the coastal zone, coastal retreat is no longer acceptable. That is why it was decided to maintain the Dutch coastline on its position in 1990. Later the preservation concept was extended to the Dutch coastal foundation, which is the area that encompasses all dune area's and hard sea defences and reaches seawards until the 20m depth contour line. Present Dutch coastal policy is to grow with sea level by means of sand nourishments. A main issue for the planning of sand nourishments is the rate of sea level rise, because that is the main parameter for the volume of the sand needed. The question is than relevant if we already have to take into account an acceleration of sea level rise. Six stations with long water level records, well spread along the Dutch coast, were analysed. Correction of the measured data was considered necessary for an adaptation of the NAP in 2005 as a consequence of movements of the top of the pleistoceen, on which the NAP bench marks have been founded, and for the 18.6 year (nodal) cycle in the time series of yearly mean sea levels. It has been concluded that along the Dutch coast no significant acceleration of sea level rise could be detected yet. Over the last 120 years sea level rose with an average speed of 19 cm per century relative to NAP (the Dutch ordnance datum). Time series shorter than about 50 years showed less robust estimates of sea level rise. Future sea level rise also needs consideration in view of the estimate of future sand nourishment volumes. Scenario's for sea level rise have been derived for the years 2050 and 2100 relative to 1990 by the KNMI (Dutch Met Office) in 2006 for the Dutch situation. Plausible curves have been drawn from 1990 tangent to the linear regression line in 1990 and forced through the high and low scenario projections for 2050 and 2100. These curves show discrepancies with measurements of the last decade

  11. Organic Matter Isotopic Analyses from Chukchi Sea Sediments: New Constraints on the Late Quaternary Sea Level History of Beringia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundeen, Z.; Brigham-Grette, J.; Driscoll, N.; Keigwin, L.; Burns, S.; Petsch, S.

    2003-12-01

    Accurately defining the sea level history of Beringia since the Last Glacial Maximum has important implications for understanding local paleoclimate data, paleoceanography of the Arctic Basin, and the timing of human migration from Asia into North America. However, few constraints exist on the timing of post-glacial sea level transgression across the former land bridge. To address this data gap, a new investigation into the sea level history of Beringia and its effects on regional paleoclimate and paleoceanography was launched in the summer of 2002 during a cruise on the USCGC Healy in the Bering and Chukchi Seas. A transect of cores were collected across the continental shelf to record the flooding history associated with glacial termination after the LGM. Cores from > 60m modern water depth lack lithologic changes expected from a marine transgressive sequence. Instead, these sediments consist primarily of clay and silt, with only minor amounts of coarser material, reflecting offshore marine burial. However, abrupt changes in downcore density suggest that disconformities may exist, with Holocene and Late-Glacial muds overlying older marine clays from an earlier sea level high-stand. To confirm this possibility, three cores were selected for elemental and isotopic analysis of bulk sedimentary organic matter. Downcore variations in δ 13C, δ 15N, TOC, and C/N are being used to determine the relative contributions of marine and terrigenous organic matter to the sediments. These geochemical data are useful as indicators of proximity to shoreline, riverine organic matter delivery and diagenetic alteration. Together with radiocarbon ages from fossil mollusks, these data place minimum limiting ages on the post-glacial transgression at multiple water depths on the Chukchi Shelf.

  12. Rationale for sub-millimetre per year ITRF accuracy for long-term sea level studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woppelmann, G.; Collilieux, X.; Gravelle, M.; Santamaria-Gomez, A.

    2012-04-01

    Vertical land movements arise from a wide range of natural and anthropogenic processes. They affect most coastlines and can significantly increase (or decrease) the rates of sea level rise expected from the sole climatic contributions of ocean thermal expansion and land-based ice melting, magnifying (or reducing) the impacts of sea level rise on the coast. Their knowledge represents a key step toward identifying the forcing factors contributing to sea level change at a particular coast, correctly quantifying their relative importance, and improving our understanding of the causes for robust predictions and full assessment of coastal vulnerability by sea level rise. Poor knowledge on land movements may profoundly hamper sea level rise projections, and ultimately lead to expensive mistakes in coastal management policies. Hence, high-quality measurements of vertical land movements have been given considerable attention over the past two decades. However, the accurate determination of these has remained a fundamental though elusive goal. The application is demanding. Sea level is estimated to have risen globally at around 1.7 mm/year over the past century. To be useful for long-term sea level trend studies, vertical land movements should be estimated with standard errors of one order of magnitude less. In this presentation, we will show that despite the remarkable advances made recently in the reanalysis of Global Positioning System (GPS) data, we are aiming at a level of performance where serious consideration of the reference frame and its long-term stability need to be addressed. Vertical velocity is a reference frame-dependent quantity, which is very sensitive to the origin and scale of the frame. The accuracy of its origin and scale is thus one of the main factors limiting the determination of accurate vertical velocities today, and subsequently the estimates of vertical land movements and geocentric sea level trends at the coast. A terrestrial reference frame

  13. THE INFLUENCE OF SEA-LEVEL CHANGES ON SEA-BOTTOM MORPHOLOGY OF SINGKAWANG WATERS WEST KALIMANTAN BASED ON ANALYSES OF BATHYMETRIC AND SEISMIC DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hananto Kurnio

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available In the history of Quaternary geology, global climate changes influenced worldwide sea-level variations. On this study, these phenomena are tried to be assessed through sea-bottom morphology changes using bathymetric and seismic strata box data obtained during field survey in Singkawang Waters, West Kalimantan. Sea-level changes in this area are referred to global variations that had been studied by many researchers. Maximal depth attained during bathymetry mapping was -52 meters which take place as a depression between Lemukutan and Penata Besar Islands. General depths are - 30 m; thus, morphology reconstruction was done for sea-level positions - 10 m, - 20 m, and - 30 m from mean sea level. At the study area, sea-level dropped more than -30 m was only occurred in sea bottom morphology of isolated depressions. These isolated depressions are assumed as paleo-lakes which occurred throughout Sunda Land by some authors. The study also shows that sea-level history in Singkawang’s area span from approximately 10,000 years ago or Holocene time to Recent. During low sea-levels, the sea-bottom morphology was characterized by more extension of Singkawang land, formations of narrow straits between islands and developments of paleo-lakes assumed as fresh water lakes in the past. These events, based on Voris’s Diagram, occurred about 10,200 up to 8,300 years ago. On the other hand, marine clays appeared on coastal area of Singkawang. These might be evidence of sea-level rise in this area. About + 5m sea-level rise flooded this area approximately 4,200 years ago. Influences of sea-level changes to subbottom geological conditions were also assessed. The assessment was carried out by analyzing shallow seismic reflection records by using strata box. The records demonstrated that subsurface geology were characterized by truncation reflector configurations interpreted as fluvial environments.

  14. The sea-level highstand correlated to marine isotope stage (MIS 7 in the coastal plain of the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    RENATO P. LOPES

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The coastal plain of the state of Rio Grande do Sul, in southern Brazil, includes four barrier-lagoon depositional systems formed by successive Quaternary sea-level highstands that were correlated to marine isotope stages (MIS 11, 9, 5 and 1, despite the scarcity of absolute ages. This study describes a sea-level highstand older than MIS 5, based on the stratigraphy, ages and fossils of the shallow marine facies found in coastal barrier (Barrier II. This facies outcrops along the banks of Chuí Creek, it is composed of fine, well-sorted quartz sand and contains ichnofossils Ophiomorpha nodosa and Rosselia sp., and molluscan shells. The sedimentary record indicates coastal aggradation followed by sea-level fall and progradation of the coastline. Thermoluminescence (TL and electron spin resonance (ESR ages from sediments and fossil shells point to an age of ∼220 ka for the end of this marine transgression, thus correlating it to MIS 7 (substage 7e. Altimetric data point to a maximum amplitude of about 10 meters above present-day mean sea-level, but tectonic processes may be involved. Paleoceanographic conditions at the time of the highstand and correlations with other deposits in the Brazilian coasts are also discussed.

  15. Coastal Marsh Longevity, Ecological Succession, and Organic Carbon Dynamics During Early Holocene Sea-Level Rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vetter, L.; Schreiner, K. M.; Rosenheim, B. E.; Tornqvist, T. E.

    2016-02-01

    Coastal marsh environments perform essential ecosystem services, including nutrient filtering, soil organic matter storage, and storm surge abatement, yet much is still unknown about their formation and fate under periods of sea-level change. During the early Holocene (7-10 ka), rapid sea-level rise in coastal Louisiana was one of the primary controls over marsh development and longevity. Here, we investigate plant community composition and succession and soil organic matter storage in early Holocene coastal marshes in Louisiana using bulk elemental ratios, lignin phenol biomarkers and stable isotopes from peat layers. Sediment cores were collected in southeastern Louisiana and contain a record of an early Holocene transgressive sea-level sequence 16-25 m below present sea-level. The sedimentary record consists of an immature paleosol overlain by basal peat that accumulated in an estuarine marsh, overlain by marine lagoonal muds. A re-established marsh peat is present 1-4 m above the initial transition to marine conditions, indicating a sequence of marsh development, sea-level rise and onset of marine conditions, and then further marsh development as the rate of relative sea-level rise decelerated. Plant community composition in coastal marshes was determined through cupric oxide oxidation and lignin-phenol and non-lignin-phenol biomarker abundances. The degradation state of soil organic matter and the specific source of stabilized organic matter within the sedimentary peats were determined through lignin-phenol biomarker ratios. Organic matter sources ranged from terrestrial to marine over the course of sea-level rise, and different sites showed different amounts of marine organic matter influence and different levels of terrestrial organic matter degradation. These results have important implications for reconstructing the response of coastal marshes and their plant communities to accelerated rates of sea-level rise projected through 2100.

  16. Barriers to and opportunities for landward migration of coastal wetlands with sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enwright, Nicholas M.; Griffith, Kereen T.; Osland, Michael J.

    2016-01-01

    In the 21st century, accelerated sea-level rise and continued coastal development are expected to greatly alter coastal landscapes across the globe. Historically, many coastal ecosystems have responded to sea-level fluctuations via horizontal and vertical movement on the landscape. However, anthropogenic activities, including urbanization and the construction of flood-prevention infrastructure, can produce barriers that impede ecosystem migration. Here we show where tidal saline wetlands have the potential to migrate landward along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast, one of the most sea-level rise sensitive and wetland-rich regions of the world. Our findings can be used to identify migration corridors and develop sea-level rise adaptation strategies to help ensure the continued availability of wetland-associated ecosystem goods and services.

  17. NODC Standard Product: Sea level data (TOGA and PSMSL) through August 1994 (NODC Accession 0095192)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The data on this CD-ROM are provided in two main directories. One directory contains Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere (TOGA) project sea level data, file formats,...

  18. Using time lapse cameras to monitor shoreline changes due to sea level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Shoreline habitats and infrastructure are currently being affected by sea level rise (SLR) and as : global temperatures continue to rise, will continue to get worse for millennia. Governments : and individuals decisions to adapt to SLR could ha...

  19. A decade of sea level rise slowed by climate-driven hydrology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reager, J T; Gardner, A S; Famiglietti, J S; Wiese, D N; Eicker, A; Lo, M-H

    2016-02-12

    Climate-driven changes in land water storage and their contributions to sea level rise have been absent from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sea level budgets owing to observational challenges. Recent advances in satellite measurement of time-variable gravity combined with reconciled global glacier loss estimates enable a disaggregation of continental land mass changes and a quantification of this term. We found that between 2002 and 2014, climate variability resulted in an additional 3200 ± 900 gigatons of water being stored on land. This gain partially offset water losses from ice sheets, glaciers, and groundwater pumping, slowing the rate of sea level rise by 0.71 ± 0.20 millimeters per year. These findings highlight the importance of climate-driven changes in hydrology when assigning attribution to decadal changes in sea level. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  20. Sea level driven marsh expansion in a coupled model of marsh erosion and migration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirwan, Matthew L.; Walters, David C.; Reay, William G.; Carr, Joel

    2016-01-01

    Coastal wetlands are among the most valuable ecosystems on Earth, where ecosystem services such as flood protection depend nonlinearly on wetland size and are threatened by sea level rise and coastal development. Here we propose a simple model of marsh migration into adjacent uplands and couple it with existing models of seaward edge erosion and vertical soil accretion to explore how ecosystem connectivity influences marsh size and response to sea level rise. We find that marsh loss is nearly inevitable where topographic and anthropogenic barriers limit migration. Where unconstrained by barriers, however, rates of marsh migration are much more sensitive to accelerated sea level rise than rates of edge erosion. This behavior suggests a counterintuitive, natural tendency for marsh expansion with sea level rise and emphasizes the disparity between coastal response to climate change with and without human intervention.

  1. Should We Leave? Attitudes towards Relocation in Response to Sea Level Rise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Song

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The participation of individuals contributes significantly to the success of sea level rise adaptation. This study therefore addresses what influences people’s likelihood of relocating away from low-lying areas in response to rising sea levels. The analysis was based on a survey conducted in the City of Panama Beach in Florida (USA. Survey items relate to people’s risk perception, hazard experience, threat appraisal, and coping appraisal, whose theoretical background is Protection Motivation Theory. Descriptive and correlation analysis was first performed to highlight critical factors which were then examined by a multinomial Logit model. Results show that sea level rise awareness is the major explanatory variable. Coping appraisal is qualitatively viewed as a strong predictor for action, while threat appraisal is statistically significant in driving relocation intention. These factors should be integrated in current risk communication regarding sea level rise.

  2. Retinal vessel diameters in relation to hematocrit variation during acclimatization of highlanders to sea level altitude

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kofoed, Peter Kristian; Sander, Birgit; Zubieta-Calleja, Gustavo

    2009-01-01

    PURPOSE: To examine variations in retinal vessel diameters during acclimatization of native highlanders to normobaric normoxia at sea level. METHODS: Fifteen healthy residents of the greater La Paz region in Bolivia (3600 m above sea level) were examined thrice over a 72-day period, after having...... traveled by airplane to Copenhagen, Denmark, near sea level. RESULTS: In the study subjects, hematocrit decreased from 49.6% (day 2) to 45.9% (P = 0.0066, day 23) and 41.7% (P ... diameters were indistinguishable from baseline after 72 days. No funduscopic signs of retinopathy were observed. Arterial blood pressure remained stable throughout the study. CONCLUSIONS: Although a 16% reduction in hematocrit occurred between days 2 and 72 after arrival at sea level, the only significant...

  3. The impact of selected sea level rise scenarios in the vicinity of Cochin harbour, India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    DineshKumar, P.K.

    The physical response of selected sea level rise scenarios on a stretch of barrier beach in the vicinity of Cochin harbour, India are investigated with a thrust on quantifying landward displacement of the land/water interface. To model shoreline...

  4. Atmospheric forcing on the seasonal variability of sea level at Cochin, southwest coast of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Srinivas, K.; DineshKumar, P.K.

    The seasonal cycles of some atmospheric parameters at Cochin (southwest coast of India) have been studied with a specific emphasis on the role played by them in forcing the seasonal sea level. Equatorward along-shore wind stress as well...

  5. Predicting the impact of tsunami in California under rising sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dura, T.; Garner, A. J.; Weiss, R.; Kopp, R. E.; Horton, B.

    2017-12-01

    The flood hazard for the California coast depends not only on the magnitude, location, and rupture length of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone earthquakes and their resultant tsunamis, but also on rising sea levels, which combine with tsunamis to produce overall flood levels. The magnitude of future sea-level rise remains uncertain even on the decadal scale, with future sea-level projections becoming even more uncertain at timeframes of a century or more. Earthquake statistics indicate that timeframes of ten thousand to one hundred thousand years are needed to capture rare, very large earthquakes. Because of the different timescales between reliable sea-level projections and earthquake distributions, simply combining the different probabilities in the context of a tsunami hazard assessment may be flawed. Here, we considered 15 earthquakes between Mw 8 to Mw 9.4 bound by -171oW and -140oW of the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone. We employed 24 realizations at each magnitude with random epicenter locations and different fault length-to-width ratios, and simulated the tsunami evolution from these 360 earthquakes at each decade from the years 2000 to 2200. These simulations were then carried out for different sea-level-rise projections to analyze the future flood hazard for California. Looking at the flood levels at tide gauges, we found that the flood level simulated at, for example, the year 2100 (including respective sea-level change) is different from the flood level calculated by adding the flood for the year 2000 to the sea-level change prediction for the year 2100. This is consistent for all sea-level rise scenarios, and this difference in flood levels range between 5% and 12% for the larger half of the given magnitude interval. Focusing on flood levels at the tide gauge in the Port of Los Angeles, the most probable flood level (including all earthquake magnitudes) in the year 2000 was 5 cm. Depending on the sea-level predictions, in the year 2050 the most probable

  6. The vertical correction of point cloud strips performed over the coastal zone of changing sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gasińska-Kolyszko, Ewa; Furmańczyk, Kazimierz

    2017-10-01

    The main principle of LIDAR is to measure the accurate time of the laser pulses sent from the system to the target surface. In the operation, laser pulses gradually scan the water surface and in combination with aircraft speed they should perform almost simultaneous soundings of each strip. Vectors sent from aircraft to the Sea are linked to the position of the aircraft. Coordinates of the points - X, Y, Z, are calculated at the time of each measurement. LIDAR crosses the surface of the sea while other impulses pass through the water column and, depending on the depth of the water, reflect from the seabed. Optical receiver on board of the aircraft detects pulse reflections from the seabed and sea surface. On the tidal water basins lidar strips must be adjusted by the changes in sea level. The operation should be reduced to a few hours during low water level. Typically, a surface of 20 to 30 km2 should be covered in an hour. The Baltic Sea is an inland sea, and the surveyed area is located in its South - western part, where meteorological and hydrological conditions affect the sea level changes in a short period of time. A lidar measurement of sea surface, that was done within 2 days, in the coastal zone of the Baltic Sea and the sea level measured 6 times a day at 8, 12, 16, 20, 00, 04 by a water gauge located in the port of Dziwnów (Poland) were used for this study. On the basis of the lidar data, strips were compared with each other. Calculation of time measurement was made for each single line separately. Profiles showing the variability of sea level for each neighboring and overlapping strips were generated. Differences were calculated changes in sea level were identified and on such basis, an adjustment was possible to perform. Microstation software and terrasolid application were used during the research. The latter allowed automatically and manual classification of the point cloud. A sea surface class was distinguished that way. Point cloud was adjusted to

  7. Possible Evidence of Multiple Sea Level Oscillations in the Seychelles During the Last Interglacial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutton, A. L.; Vyverberg, K.; Webster, J.; Dechnik, B.; Zwartz, D.; Lambeck, K.

    2013-12-01

    In search of a eustatic sea level signal on glacial-interglacial timescales, the Seychelles ranks as one of the best places on the planet to study. Owing to its far-field location with respect to the former margins of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets, glacio-hydro-isostatic models predict that relative sea level in the Seychelles should lie within a few meters of the globally averaged eustatic signal during interglacial periods. We have surveyed and dated fossil coral reefs from the last interglacial period to determine the magnitude of peak sea level and to assess sedimentologic evidence of potential sea level oscillations. Numerous outcrops we studied in detail exhibit a stratigraphic sequence comprised of in situ coralgal framework at the base, capped by thick coralline algae crusts, and overlain by coral rubble deposits. We also observed a succession of three stacked coralgal reefs within a single outcrop, separated by hardgrounds that have been bored by molluscs. In general, the succession within each reef unit consists of interlayered corals and crusts of coralline algae-vermetid gastropods-encrusting foraminifera. The lower two reef units are capped by a well-cemented 5 to 10 cm thick carbonate mud layer that is heavily bored by molluscs. These two surfaces may represent exposure surfaces during brief sea level oscillations, where sea level fell and exposed the top of the reef sequence, which was subsequently bored when sea level rose again and reef growth resumed. The elevations of the corals in each reef unit provide minimum elevations of sea level during each of the three pulses of sea level highstands during the last interglacial period. Significantly, since many of these corals are capped by thick coralline algae layers that contain vermetid gastropods and encrusting foraminifera that are indicative of the intertidal zone, there is strong evidence that these corals grew in extremely shallow water, providing a robust indication of sea level position. These

  8. Historical sea level in the South Pacific from rescued archives, geodetic measurements, and satellite altimetry

    OpenAIRE

    Aucan, Jerôme; Merrifield, M. A.; Pouvreau, N.

    2017-01-01

    Automatic sea-level measurements in Nouméa, South Pacific, started in 1957 for the International Geophysical year. Data from this location exist in paper record for the 1957-1967 period, and in two distinct electronic records for the 1967-2005 and 2005-2015 period. In this study, we digitize the early record, and established a link between the two electronic records to create a unique, nearly 60 year-long instrumental sea-level record. This work creates one of the longest instrumental sea-lev...

  9. High-resolution tide projections reveal extinction threshold in response to sea-level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, Christopher R; Bayard, Trina S; Gjerdrum, Carina; Hill, Jason M; Meiman, Susan; Elphick, Chris S

    2017-05-01

    Sea-level rise will affect coastal species worldwide, but models that aim to predict these effects are typically based on simple measures of sea level that do not capture its inherent complexity, especially variation over timescales shorter than 1 year. Coastal species might be most affected, however, by floods that exceed a critical threshold. The frequency and duration of such floods may be more important to population dynamics than mean measures of sea level. In particular, the potential for changes in the frequency and duration of flooding events to result in nonlinear population responses or biological thresholds merits further research, but may require that models incorporate greater resolution in sea level than is typically used. We created population simulations for a threatened songbird, the saltmarsh sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus), in a region where sea level is predictable with high accuracy and precision. We show that incorporating the timing of semidiurnal high tide events throughout the breeding season, including how this timing is affected by mean sea-level rise, predicts a reproductive threshold that is likely to cause a rapid demographic shift. This shift is likely to threaten the persistence of saltmarsh sparrows beyond 2060 and could cause extinction as soon as 2035. Neither extinction date nor the population trajectory was sensitive to the emissions scenarios underlying sea-level projections, as most of the population decline occurred before scenarios diverge. Our results suggest that the variation and complexity of climate-driven variables could be important for understanding the potential responses of coastal species to sea-level rise, especially for species that rely on coastal areas for reproduction. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. A framework to investigate the economic growth impact of sea level rise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hallegatte, Stéphane

    2012-01-01

    This article reviews the channels through which sea level rise can affect economic growth, namely the loss of land, the loss of infrastructure and physical capital, the loss of social capital, the additional cost from extreme events and coastal floods, and the increased expenditure for coastal protection. It discusses how existing studies on the direct impact of sea level rise could be used to investigate the resulting consequences on economic growth, emphasizes research needs on this question, and discusses consequences on migration. (letter)

  11. Timing of return from altitude training for optimal sea level performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Robert F; Laymon Stickford, Abigail S; Lundby, Carsten; Levine, Benjamin D

    2014-04-01

    While a number of published studies exist to guide endurance athletes with the best practices regarding implementation of altitude training, a key unanswered question concerns the proper timing of return to sea level prior to major competitions. Evidence reviewed here suggests that, altogether, the deacclimatization responses of hematological, ventilatory, and biomechanical factors with return to sea level likely interact to determine the best timing for competitive performance.

  12. Paleo sea-level changes and relative sea-level indicators: Precise measurements, indicative meaning and glacial isostatic adjustment perspectives from Mallorca (Western Mediterranean)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lorscheid, T; Stocchi, P.; Casella, E.; Gómez-Pujolf, L.; Vacchi, M.; Mann, T.; Rovere, A.

    2017-01-01

    Paleo relative sea-level (RSL) indicators formed during the Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e have been reported bya large number of studies worldwide. Despite this, three main aspects are seldom reported: (1) use of high-precisionsurvey techniques applied to MIS 5e RSL indicators; (2) application of

  13. Habitability at the frontlines of sea level rise: a spatiotemporal analysis of settlements and coastal inundation in eight global sea level rise hotspots between 1990 and 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, S. A.; Wrathall, D.

    2017-12-01

    Over the coming centuries and millennia, sea level rise will greatly redistribute global human population through displacement and migration. Sudden, large-scale displacement is extremely disruptive to society both for migrants and host communities, and there is a great scientific and policy need to anticipate where, when and how this could happen around sea level rise. We can meet these needs by examining how long-term coastal inundation of settlements has already occurred. Using two global geospatial data sets, the Global Human Settlement Layer and the Global Surface Water Layer, we examine the global spatial concentration of settlement inundation that occurred between 1990 and 2015. We focus on the eight sea level rise hotspots identified in Clark et al (2016), which include Bangladesh, Mekong Delta, Indonesia, Japan, Nile Delta, Philippines, and the US Mid-Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, and examine areas of convergence between settlement loss density and negative population change. This analysis reveals specific areas of concern within vulnerable countries, and forms the basis for focused investigations of the long-term impact of coastal inundation on various migration systems. This analysis shows us how long-term sets of satellite derived data on human population can help anticipate how sea level rise will alter future patterns of human settlement and migration into the 21st century and beyond.

  14. Measuring the Rate of Change in Sea Level and Its Adherence to USACE Sea Level Rise Planning Scenarios Using Timeseries Metrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, K. D.; Huang, N.; Huber, M.; Veatch, W.; Moritz, H.; Obrien, P. S.; Friedman, D.

    2017-12-01

    In 2013, the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) issued guidance for all Civil Works activities to incorporate the effects of sea level change as described in three distinct planning scenarios.[1] These planning scenarios provided a useful framework to incorporate these effects into Civil Works activities, but required the manual calculation of these scenarios for a given gage and set of datum. To address this need, USACE developed the Sea Level Change Curve Calculator (SLCCC) in 2014 which provided a "simple, web-based tool to provide repeatable analytical results."[2]USACE has been developing a successor to the SLCCC application which retains the same, intuitive functionality to calculate these planning scenarios, but it also allows the comparison of actual sea level change between 1992 and today against the projections, and builds on the user's ability to understand the rate of change using a variety of timeseries metrics (e.g. moving averages, trends) and related visualizations. These new metrics help both illustrate and measure the complexity and nuances of sea level change. [1] ER 1000-2-8162. http://www.publications.usace.army.mil/Portals/76/Publications/EngineerRegulations/ER_1100-2-8162.pdf. [2] SLCC Manual. http://www.corpsclimate.us/docs/SLC_Calculator_Manual_2014_88.pdf.

  15. USACE Extreme Sea Levels Advice on Guidance on Procedures to Evaluate and Adapt to Changes in Mean and Extreme Sea Levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-09

    recommendations for best practise . Coastal Engineering, 81, 51–66. Arns, A., Wahl, T., Haigh, I.D., Jensen, J., in review. Determining extreme water return...2013. A UK best -practice approach for extreme sea-level analysis along complex topographic coastlines. Ocean Engineering. Germany Arns, A., Wahl

  16. More than 70 years of continuous sea level records on the Santander Bay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavín, Alicia; Tel, Elena; Molinero, Joaquin; Rodriguez, Carmen

    2017-04-01

    The knowledge of sea level height is important for many different sectors as navigation, transport, building infrastructures, tourism, or maritime sports, between others. Tides are mainly composed of an astronomical part and a meteorological one. Sometimes, their joined action is the responsible of extreme behaviors in the sea level. Influence of pressure differences, as well as related winds, is important in the behavior of sea level to analyze. The first system for reading the sea level was a tide board attached at the pier. In Spain the first modern tide gauge was installed in the Port of Alicante, Mediterranean Sea, in 1873 depending of the National Geographic Institute (IGN). Just the following year, a similar tide gauge was installed at the entrance of the Santander Bay. "La Magdalena" tide gauge was working during two periods 1876-1928 and 1963-1975. Together with Cádiz, the IGN tide gauges were used to determinate the national datum for terrestrial cartography. The Spanish Institute of Oceanography (IEO) tide gauge network was initiated in 1943 with the installation of tide gauges along the Spanish coast. One of them was located in Santander and has been working since then. At the beginning it was a float tide gauge connected to a graphical continuous recorder. Nowadays, it also has a digital encoder and a remote connection that allow using the recorded data for operational purposes. Later a Radar system was added. This tide gauge is referred to the Tide Gauge Zero and also calibrated to a benchmark in order to have a unique reference. This high quality sea level information is required for international and regional research activities, as Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS). In particular, long time series are widely used for climate change detection. The sea level long term variability studies require a very good quality data focus in the reference of the data along the whole period and also it will be more precisely if we can remove the crustal

  17. Evolution of the Rømø barrier island in the Wadden Sea: Impacts of sea-level change on coastal morphodynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clemmensen, Lars B; Andersen, Thorbjørn Joest; Johannessen, Peter

    Sandy coastal barriers are abundant along most continents, and they are often intensively engineered to prevent erosion. Therefore, it is important to develop projections of the evolution of this coastal type in periods with changing climate and sea-level. We have used a multidisciplinary approach......, and falling sea-level, whereas wash-over sedimentation was promoted during periods of rapid sea-level rise when shoreface, beach and coastal dune deposits were reworked. In contrast, lagoonal sedimentation has been relatively continuous and kept pace with the long-term Holocene sea-level rise. Our findings...

  18. Delta growth and river valleys: the influence of climate and sea level changes on the South Adriatic shelf (Mediterranean Sea)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maselli, V.; Trincardi, F.; Asioli, A.; Ceregato, A.; Rizzetto, F.; Taviani, M.

    2014-09-01

    Incised valleys across continental margins represent the response of fluvial systems to changes in their equilibrium dynamics, mainly driven by base level fall forced by glacial-eustatic cycles. The Manfredonia Incised Valley formed during the last glacial sea level lowstand, when most of the southern Adriatic shelf was sub-aerially exposed but the outer shelf remained under water. The pronounced upstream deepening of the valley is ascribed to river incision of the MIS5e highstand coastal prism and related subaqueous clinoform under the influence of MIS5-4 sea level fluctuations, while the downstream shallowing and narrowing mainly reflects the impact of increased rates of sea level fall at the MIS3-2 transition on a flatter mid-outer shelf. Until 15 ka BP, the valley fed an asymmetric delta confined to the mid-outer shelf, testifying that continental and deep marine systems remained disconnected during the lowstand. Sea level rise reached the inner shelf during the Early Holocene, drowning the valley and leading to the formation of a sheltered embayment confined toward the land: at this time part of the incision remained underfilled with a marked bathymetric expression. This mini-basin was rapidly filled by sandy bayhead deltas, prograding from both the northern and southern sides of the valley. In this environment, protected by marine reworking and where sediment dispersal was less effective, the accommodation space was reduced and autogenic processes forced the formation of multiple and coalescing delta lobes. Bayhead delta progradations occurred in few centuries, between 8 and 7.2 ka cal BP, confirming the recent hypothesis that in this area the valley was filled during the formation of sapropel S1. This proximal valley fill, representing the very shallow-water equivalent of the cm-thick sapropel layers accumulated offshore in the deeper southern Adriatic basin, is of key importance in following the signature of the sapropel in a facies-tract ideally from the

  19. Tension between reducing sea-level rise and global warming through solar-radiation management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irvine, P. J.; Sriver, R. L.; Keller, K.

    2012-02-01

    Geoengineering using solar-radiation management (SRM) is gaining interest as a potential strategy to reduce future climate change impacts. Basic physics and past observations suggest that reducing insolation will, on average, cool the Earth. It is uncertain, however, whether SRM can reduce climate change stressors such as sea-level rise or rates of surface air temperature change. Here we use an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to quantify the possible response of sea levels and surface air temperatures to projected climate forcings and SRM strategies. We find that SRM strategies introduce a potentially strong tension between the objectives to reduce (1) the rate of temperature change and (2) sea-level rise. This tension arises primarily because surface air temperatures respond faster to radiative forcings than sea levels. Our results show that the forcing required to stop sea-level rise could cause a rapid cooling with a rate similar to the peak business-as-usual warming rate. Furthermore, termination of SRM was found to produce warming rates up to five times greater than the maximum rates under the business-as-usual CO2 scenario, whereas sea-level rise rates were only 30% higher. Reducing these risks requires a slow phase-out of many decades and thus commits future generations.

  20. Development of sea level rise scenarios for climate change assessments of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, Thomas W.; Day, Richard H.; Michot, Thomas C.

    2010-01-01

    Rising sea level poses critical ecological and economical consequences for the low-lying megadeltas of the world where dependent populations and agriculture are at risk. The Mekong Delta of Vietnam is one of many deltas that are especially vulnerable because much of the land surface is below mean sea level and because there is a lack of coastal barrier protection. Food security related to rice and shrimp farming in the Mekong Delta is currently under threat from saltwater intrusion, relative sea level rise, and storm surge potential. Understanding the degree of potential change in sea level under climate change is needed to undertake regional assessments of potential impacts and to formulate adaptation strategies. This report provides constructed time series of potential sea level rise scenarios for the Mekong Delta region by incorporating (1) aspects of observed intra- and inter-annual sea level variability from tide records and (2) projected estimates for different rates of regional subsidence and accelerated eustacy through the year 2100 corresponding with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate models and emission scenarios.

  1. Investigating mitigation opportunities in coastal wetlands losses of Galveston Bay due to sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, D.; Imtiaz, H.

    2017-12-01

    As the climate changes over the course of the future, sea level is predicted to rise at an accelerated rate. Coastal wetlands will be affected by the relative sea level rise at each specific area. This study utilized GIS data produced by the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) to determine the response of coastal wetlands along the west coast of Galveston Bay to sea level rise. Spatial analysis was conducted using the data from SLAMM along with current and future projected land use along the west coast. Wetland area was lost under all sea level rise scenarios through 2100 when considering land use and development, with significant amounts lost under future development plans. Mitigation methods were evaluated to determine which combinations would allow maintenance of wetland stocks as sea level rises and development along the coast continues. This study suggested a combination of hard protection structures and wetland creation methods to maintain a balance between conservation of the wetland ecosystem and increased demands for land for development along the western coast of the Bay.

  2. Processes contributing to resilience of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stagg, Camille L.; Krauss, Ken W.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Cormier, Nicole; Conner, William H.; Swarzenski, Christopher M.

    2016-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to identify processes that contribute to resilience of coastal wetlands subject to rising sea levels and to determine whether the relative contribution of these processes varies across different wetland community types. We assessed the resilience of wetlands to sea-level rise along a transitional gradient from tidal freshwater forested wetland (TFFW) to marsh by measuring processes controlling wetland elevation. We found that, over 5 years of measurement, TFFWs were resilient, although some marginally, and oligohaline marshes exhibited robust resilience to sea-level rise. We identified fundamental differences in how resilience is maintained across wetland community types, which have important implications for management activities that aim to restore or conserve resilient systems. We showed that the relative importance of surface and subsurface processes in controlling wetland surface elevation change differed between TFFWs and oligohaline marshes. The marshes had significantly higher rates of surface accretion than the TFFWs, and in the marshes, surface accretion was the primary contributor to elevation change. In contrast, elevation change in TFFWs was more heavily influenced by subsurface processes, such as root zone expansion or compaction, which played an important role in determining resilience of TFFWs to rising sea level. When root zone contributions were removed statistically from comparisons between relative sea-level rise and surface elevation change, sites that previously had elevation rate deficits showed a surplus. Therefore, assessments of wetland resilience that do not include subsurface processes will likely misjudge vulnerability to sea-level rise.

  3. Ice volume and climate changes from a 6000 year sea-level record in French Polynesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallmann, N; Camoin, G; Eisenhauer, A; Botella, A; Milne, G A; Vella, C; Samankassou, E; Pothin, V; Dussouillez, P; Fleury, J; Fietzke, J

    2018-01-18

    Mid- to late-Holocene sea-level records from low-latitude regions serve as an important baseline of natural variability in sea level and global ice volume prior to the Anthropocene. Here, we reconstruct a high-resolution sea-level curve encompassing the last 6000 years based on a comprehensive study of coral microatolls, which are sensitive low-tide recorders. Our curve is based on microatolls from several islands in a single region and comprises a total of 82 sea-level index points. Assuming thermosteric contributions are negligible on millennial time scales, our results constrain global ice melting to be 1.5-2.5 m (sea-level equivalent) since ~5500 years before present. The reconstructed curve includes isolated rapid events of several decimetres within a few centuries, one of which is most likely related to loss from the Antarctic ice sheet mass around 5000 years before present. In contrast, the occurrence of large and flat microatolls indicates periods of significant sea-level stability lasting up to ~300 years.

  4. Sea level projections for the Australian region in the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xuebin; Church, John A.; Monselesan, Didier; McInnes, Kathleen L.

    2017-08-01

    Sea level rise exhibits significant regional differences. Based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, sea level projections have been produced for the Australian region by taking account of regional dynamic changes, ocean thermal expansion, mass loss of glaciers, changes in Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and land water storage, and glacial isostatic adjustment. However, these regional projections have a coarse resolution ( 100 km), while coastal adaptation planners demand finer scale information at the coast. To address this need, a 1/10° near-global ocean model driven by ensemble average forcings from 17 CMIP5 models is used to downscale future climate. We produce high-resolution sea level projections by combining downscaled dynamic sea level with other contributions. Off the southeast coast, dynamic downscaling provides better representation of high sea level projections associated with gyre circulation and boundary current changes. The high-resolution sea level projection should be a valuable product for detailed coastal adaptation planning.

  5. National evaluation of Chinese coastal erosion to sea level rise using a Bayesian approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhan, Q; Fan, X; Du, X; Zhu, J

    2014-01-01

    In this paper a Causal Bayesian network is developed to predict decadal-scale shoreline evolution of China to sea-level rise. The Bayesian model defines relationships between 6 factors of Chinese coastal system such as coastal geomorphology, mean tide range, mean wave height, coastal slope, relative sea-level rise rate and shoreline erosion rate. Using the Bayesian probabilistic model, we make quantitative assessment of china's shoreline evolution in response to different future sea level rise rates. Results indicate that the probability of coastal erosion with high and very high rates increases from 28% to 32.3% when relative sea-level rise rates is 4∼6mm/a, and to 44.9% when relative sea-level rise rates is more than 6mm/a. A hindcast evaluation of the Bayesian model shows that the model correctly predicts 79.3% of the cases. Model test indicates that the Bayesian model shows higher predictive capabilities for stable coasts and very highly eroding coasts than moderately and highly eroding coasts. This study demonstrates that the Bayesian model is adapted to predicting decadal-scale Chinese coastal erosion associated with sea-level rise

  6. Modeling Caspian Sea water level oscillations under different scenarios of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roshan GholamReza

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The rapid rise of Caspian Sea water level (about 2.25 meters since 1978 has caused much concern to all five surrounding countries, primarily because flooding has destroyed or damaged buildings and other engineering structures, roads, beaches and farm lands in the coastal zone. Given that climate, and more specifically climate change, is a primary factor influencing oscillations in Caspian Sea water levels, the effect of different climate change scenarios on future Caspian Sea levels was simulated. Variations in environmental parameters such as temperature, precipitation, evaporation, atmospheric carbon dioxide and water level oscillations of the Caspian sea and surrounding regions, are considered for both past (1951-2006 and future (2025-2100 time frames. The output of the UKHADGEM general circulation model and five alternative scenarios including A1CAI, BIASF, BIMES WRE450 and WRE750 were extracted using the MAGICC SCENGEN Model software (version 5.3. The results suggest that the mean temperature of the Caspian Sea region (Bandar-E-Anzali monitoring site has increased by ca. 0.17°C per decade under the impacts of atmospheric carbon dioxide changes (r=0.21. The Caspian Sea water level has increased by ca. +36cm per decade (r=0.82 between the years 1951-2006. Mean results from all modeled scenarios indicate that the temperature will increase by ca. 3.64°C and precipitation will decrease by ca. 10% (182 mm over the Caspian Sea, whilst in the Volga river basin, temperatures are projected to increase by ca. 4.78°C and precipitation increase by ca. 12% (58 mm by the year 2100. Finally, statistical modeling of the Caspian Sea water levels project future water level increases of between 86 cm and 163 cm by the years 2075 and 2100, respectively.

  7. Modeling Caspian Sea water level oscillations under different scenarios of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roshan, Gholamreza; Moghbel, Masumeh; Grab, Stefan

    2012-12-12

    The rapid rise of Caspian Sea water level (about 2.25 meters since 1978) has caused much concern to all five surrounding countries, primarily because flooding has destroyed or damaged buildings and other engineering structures, roads, beaches and farm lands in the coastal zone. Given that climate, and more specifically climate change, is a primary factor influencing oscillations in Caspian Sea water levels, the effect of different climate change scenarios on future Caspian Sea levels was simulated. Variations in environmental parameters such as temperature, precipitation, evaporation, atmospheric carbon dioxide and water level oscillations of the Caspian sea and surrounding regions, are considered for both past (1951-2006) and future (2025-2100) time frames. The output of the UKHADGEM general circulation model and five alternative scenarios including A1CAI, BIASF, BIMES WRE450 and WRE750 were extracted using the MAGICC SCENGEN Model software (version 5.3). The results suggest that the mean temperature of the Caspian Sea region (Bandar-E-Anzali monitoring site) has increased by ca. 0.17°C per decade under the impacts of atmospheric carbon dioxide changes (r=0.21). The Caspian Sea water level has increased by ca. +36cm per decade (r=0.82) between the years 1951-2006. Mean results from all modeled scenarios indicate that the temperature will increase by ca. 3.64°C and precipitation will decrease by ca. 10% (182 mm) over the Caspian Sea, whilst in the Volga river basin, temperatures are projected to increase by ca. 4.78°C and precipitation increase by ca. 12% (58 mm) by the year 2100. Finally, statistical modeling of the Caspian Sea water levels project future water level increases of between 86 cm and 163 cm by the years 2075 and 2100, respectively.

  8. Sea level rise along Malaysian coasts due to the climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luu, Quang-Hung; Tkalich, Pavel; Tay, Tzewei

    2015-04-01

    Malaysia consists of two major parts, a mainland on the Peninsular Malaysia and the East Malaysia on the Borneo Island. Their surrounding waters connect the Andaman Sea located northeast of the Indian Ocean to the Celebes Sea in the western tropical Pacific Ocean through the southern East Sea of Vietnam/South China Sea. As a result, inter-annual sea level in the Malaysian waters is governed by various regional phenomena associated with the adjacent parts of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. We estimated sea level rise (SLR) rate in the domain using tide gauge records often being gappy. To reconstruct the missing data, two methods are used: (i) correlating sea level with climate indices El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and (ii) filling the gap using records of neighboring tide gauges. Latest vertical land movements have been acquired to derive geocentric SLR rates. Around the Peninsular Malaysia, geocentric SLR rates in waters of Malacca Strait and eastern Peninsular Malaysia during 1986-2011 are found to be 3.9±3.3 mm/year and 4.2 ± 2.5 mm/year, respectively; while in the East Malaysia waters the rate during 1988-2011 is 6.3 ± 4.0 mm/year. These rates are arguably higher than global tendency for the same periods. For the overlapping period 1993-2011, the rates are consistent with those obtained using satellite altimetry.

  9. Evaluation of sea level rise in Bohai Bay and associated responses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ke-Xiu LIU

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Tide gauge data from 1950 to 2015 are used to analyze sea level change, tidal change, return levels, and design tide levels under rising sea level scenarios in Bohai Bay. Results show the following: 1 Since 1950 sea levels in Bohai Bay show a significant rising trend of 3.3 mm per year. The speed has been particularly rapid in 1980–2015 at a rate of 4.7 mm per year. 2 Astronomical tides showed a clear long-term trend in 1950–2015. The amplitude and phase lag of the M2 tide constituent decreased at a rate of 0.21 cm per year and 0.11° per year, respectively and the phase lag of K1 decreased at a rate of 0.09° per year, whereas there was little change in its amplitude. The mean high and low tides increased at a rate of 0.08 and 0.52 cm per year, respectively, whereas the mean tidal range decreased at a rate of 0.44 cm per year. Results from numerical experiments show that local sea level rise plays an important role in the tidal dynamics change in Bohai Bay. 3 It is considered that the sea level return periods will decrease owing to the influence of sea level rise and land subsidence, therefore design tide level will change in relation to sea level rise. Therefore, the ability of seawalls to withstand water will diminish, and storm surge disasters will become more serious in the future.

  10. Sea-Level Rise and Flood Potential along the California Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delepine, Q.; Leung, C.

    2013-12-01

    Sea-level rise is becoming an ever-increasing problem in California. Sea-level is expected to rise significantly in the next 100 years, which will raise flood elevations in coastal communities. This will be an issue for private homeowners, businesses, and the state. One study suggests that Venice Beach could lose a total of at least $440 million in tourism spending and tax dollars from flooding and beach erosion if sea level rises 1.4 m by 2100. In addition, several airports, such as San Francisco International Airport, are located in coastal regions that have flooded in the past and will likely be flooded again in the next 30 years, but sea-level rise is expected to worsen the effects of flooding in the coming decades It is vital for coastal communities to understand the risks associated with sea-level rise so that they can plan to adapt to it. By obtaining accurate LiDAR elevation data from the NOAA Digital Coast Website (http://csc.noaa.gov/dataviewer/?keyword=lidar#), we can create flood maps to simulate sea level rise and flooding. The data are uploaded to ArcGIS and contour lines are added for different elevations that represent future coastlines during 100-year flooding. The following variables are used to create the maps: 1. High-resolution land surface elevation data - obtained from NOAA 2. Local mean high water level - from USGS 3. Local 100-year flood water level - from the Pacific Institute 4. Sea-level rise projections for different future dates (2030, 2050, and 2100) - from the National Research Council The values from the last three categories are added to represent sea-level rise plus 100-year flooding. These values are used to make the contour lines that represent the projected flood elevations, which are then exported as KML files, which can be opened in Google Earth. Once these KML files are made available to the public, coastal communities will gain an improved understanding of how flooding and sea-level rise might affect them in the future

  11. Past sea level changes along the western continental margins of India: Evidences from morphology of the sea bed

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Vora, K.H.

    , foraminifers, etc. and certain geomorphological features such as submarine terraces, reefs, notches, raised marine deposits, beach rocks and buried channels, etc. Glacio-eustatic sea-level fluctuations, along with relief, lithology, sedimentation..., tectonic movements etc., have governed depositional and erosional patterns and thereby, topography of the continental shelf. The continental shelves world over are marked by the presence of a variety of geomorphological features that are the net...

  12. Long-memory and the sea level-temperature relationship: a fractional cointegration approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel; Heres, David R; Martínez-Hernández, L Catalina

    2014-01-01

    Through thermal expansion of oceans and melting of land-based ice, global warming is very likely contributing to the sea level rise observed during the 20th century. The amount by which further increases in global average temperature could affect sea level is only known with large uncertainties due to the limited capacity of physics-based models to predict sea levels from global surface temperatures. Semi-empirical approaches have been implemented to estimate the statistical relationship between these two variables providing an alternative measure on which to base potentially disrupting impacts on coastal communities and ecosystems. However, only a few of these semi-empirical applications had addressed the spurious inference that is likely to be drawn when one nonstationary process is regressed on another. Furthermore, it has been shown that spurious effects are not eliminated by stationary processes when these possess strong long memory. Our results indicate that both global temperature and sea level indeed present the characteristics of long memory processes. Nevertheless, we find that these variables are fractionally cointegrated when sea-ice extent is incorporated as an instrumental variable for temperature which in our estimations has a statistically significant positive impact on global sea level.

  13. Loss of cultural world heritage and currently inhabited places to sea-level rise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marzeion, Ben; Levermann, Anders

    2014-01-01

    The world population is concentrated near the coasts, as are a large number of Cultural World Heritage sites, defined by the UNESCO. Using spatially explicit sea-level estimates for the next 2000 years and high-resolution topography data, we compute which current cultural heritage sites will be affected by sea-level rise at different levels of sustained future warming. As indicators for the pressure on future cultural heritage we estimate the percentage of each country’s area loss, and the percentage of current population living in regions that will be permanently below sea level, for different temperature levels. If the current global mean temperature was sustained for the next two millennia, about 6% (40 sites) of the UNESCO sites will be affected, and 0.7% of global land area will be below mean sea level. These numbers increase to 19% (136 sites) and 1.1% for a warming of 3 K. At this warming level, 3–12 countries will experience a loss of more than half of their current land surface, 25–36 countries lose at least 10% of their territory, and 7% of the global population currently lives in regions that will be below local sea level. Given the millennial scale lifetime of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, our results indicate that fundamental decisions with regard to mankind’s cultural heritage are required. (paper)

  14. Sea-level variability in the Common Era along the Atlantic coast of North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemp, A.; Kopp, R. E.; Horton, B.; Little, C. M.; Engelhart, S. E.; Mitrovica, J. X.

    2017-12-01

    Common Era relative sea-level trends on the margins of the North Atlantic Ocean vary through time and across space as a result of simultaneous global (basin-wide)-, regional- (linear and non-linear), and local-scale processes. A growing suite of relative sea-level reconstructions derived from dated salt-marsh (and mangrove) sediment on the Atlantic coast of North America provides an opportunity to quantify the contributions from several physical processes to Common Era sea-level trends. In particular, this coastline is susceptible to relative sea-level changes caused by melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet and redistribution of existing ocean mass on timescales of days to centuries by evolving patterns and strengths of atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Using a case study from Newfoundland, Canada, we demonstrate how high-resolution (decadal- and decimeter-scale) relative sea level reconstructions are produced from sequences of salt-marsh sediment that were deposited under conditions of long-term sea-level rise. We use an expanded database of Common Era relative sea-level reconstructions from the Atlantic coast of North America that spans locations from Newfoundland to the southern Florida to identify spatial and temporal patterns of change. A spatio-temporal statistical model enables us to decompose each reconstruction (with uncertainty) into contributions from global-, regional- (linear and non-linear), and local-scale processes. This analysis shows that spatially-variable glacio-isostatic adjustment was the primary driver of sea-level change. The global signal is dominated by the onset of anthropogenic sea-level rise in the late 19th century, which caused the 20th century to experience a faster rate of rise than any of the preceding 26 centuries. Differentiating between regional non-linear and local-scale processes is a challenging using an inherently sparse network of reconstructions. However, we show that sites south of Cape Hatteras have sea-level histories

  15. The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Geodetic Vertical Datum of Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Din, A. H. M.; Abazu, I. C.; Pa'suya, M. F.; Omar, K. M.; Hamid, A. I. A.

    2016-09-01

    Sea level rise is rapidly turning into major issues among our community and all levels of the government are working to develop responses to ensure these matters are given the uttermost attention in all facets of planning. It is more interesting to understand and investigate the present day sea level variation due its potential impact, particularly on our national geodetic vertical datum. To determine present day sea level variation, it is vital to consider both in-situ tide gauge and remote sensing measurements. This study presents an effort to quantify the sea level rise rate and magnitude over Peninsular Malaysia using tide gauge and multi-mission satellite altimeter. The time periods taken for both techniques are 32 years (from 1984 to 2015) for tidal data and 23 years (from 1993 to 2015) for altimetry data. Subsequently, the impact of sea level rise on Peninsular Malaysia Geodetic Vertical Datum (PMGVD) is evaluated in this study. the difference between MSL computed from 10 years (1984 - 1993) and 32 years (1984 - 2015) tidal data at Port Kelang showed that the increment of sea level is about 27mm. The computed magnitude showed an estimate of the long-term effect a change in MSL has on the geodetic vertical datum of Port Kelang tide gauge station. This will help give a new insight on the establishment of national geodetic vertical datum based on mean sea level data. Besides, this information can be used for a wide variety of climatic applications to study environmental issues related to flood and global warming in Malaysia.

  16. THE IMPACT OF SEA LEVEL RISE ON GEODETIC VERTICAL DATUM OF PENINSULAR MALAYSIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. H. M. Din

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Sea level rise is rapidly turning into major issues among our community and all levels of the government are working to develop responses to ensure these matters are given the uttermost attention in all facets of planning. It is more interesting to understand and investigate the present day sea level variation due its potential impact, particularly on our national geodetic vertical datum. To determine present day sea level variation, it is vital to consider both in-situ tide gauge and remote sensing measurements. This study presents an effort to quantify the sea level rise rate and magnitude over Peninsular Malaysia using tide gauge and multi-mission satellite altimeter. The time periods taken for both techniques are 32 years (from 1984 to 2015 for tidal data and 23 years (from 1993 to 2015 for altimetry data. Subsequently, the impact of sea level rise on Peninsular Malaysia Geodetic Vertical Datum (PMGVD is evaluated in this study. the difference between MSL computed from 10 years (1984 – 1993 and 32 years (1984 – 2015 tidal data at Port Kelang showed that the increment of sea level is about 27mm. The computed magnitude showed an estimate of the long-term effect a change in MSL has on the geodetic vertical datum of Port Kelang tide gauge station. This will help give a new insight on the establishment of national geodetic vertical datum based on mean sea level data. Besides, this information can be used for a wide variety of climatic applications to study environmental issues related to flood and global warming in Malaysia.

  17. Efficacy of geoengineering to limit 21st century sea-level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, J C; Jevrejeva, S; Grinsted, A

    2010-09-07

    Geoengineering has been proposed as a feasible way of mitigating anthropogenic climate change, especially increasing global temperatures in the 21st century. The two main geoengineering options are limiting incoming solar radiation, or modifying the carbon cycle. Here we examine the impact of five geoengineering approaches on sea level; SO(2) aerosol injection into the stratosphere, mirrors in space, afforestation, biochar, and bioenergy with carbon sequestration. Sea level responds mainly at centennial time scales to temperature change, and has been largely driven by anthropogenic forcing since 1850. Making use a model of sea-level rise as a function of time-varying climate forcing factors (solar radiation, volcanism, and greenhouse gas emissions) we find that sea-level rise by 2100 will likely be 30 cm higher than 2000 levels despite all but the most aggressive geoengineering under all except the most stringent greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The least risky and most desirable way of limiting sea-level rise is bioenergy with carbon sequestration. However aerosol injection or a space mirror system reducing insolation at an accelerating rate of 1 W m(-2) per decade from now to 2100 could limit or reduce sea levels. Aerosol injection delivering a constant 4 W m(-2) reduction in radiative forcing (similar to a 1991 Pinatubo eruption every 18 months) could delay sea-level rise by 40-80 years. Aerosol injection appears to fail cost-benefit analysis unless it can be maintained continuously, and damage caused by the climate response to the aerosols is less than about 0.6% Global World Product.

  18. Tidal Variability Related to Sea Level Variability in the Pacific Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devlin, Adam T.; Jay, David A.; Zaron, Edward D.; Talke, Stefan A.; Pan, Jiayi; Lin, Hui

    2017-11-01

    Ocean tides are changing worldwide for reasons unrelated to astronomical forcing. Changes in tidal properties coupled with altered mean sea level (MSL) may yield higher peak water levels and increased occurrence of short-term exceedance events, such as storm surge and nuisance flooding. Here we investigate the hypothesis that changes in relative sea level are correlated with alterations in tidal amplitudes. Our approach focuses on the correlation between short-term (monthly to interannual) fluctuations in sea level with changes in tidal properties of major ocean tides (M2, and K1; S2 and O1) at 152 gauges. Results suggest that sea level variability is correlated to interannual tidal variability at most (92%) of tide gauges in the Pacific, with statistically significant rates between ±10 and ±500 mm per meter sea level rise observed. These tidal anomalies, while influenced by basin-scale climate processes and sea level changes, appear to be locally forced (in part) and not coherent over amphidromic or basin-wide scales. Overall, the Western Pacific shows a greater concentration of tide/sea level correlations at interannual time scales than the Eastern Pacific; 44% and 46% of gauges are significant in K1 and O1 in the west compared to 29% and 30% in the east, and 63% and 53% of gauges in the west are significant in M2 and S2 versus 47% and 32% in the east. Seasonal variation in tidal properties is less apparent in the empirical record, with statistically significant seasonal variations observed at only 35% of all gauges, with the largest concentrations in Southeast Asia.

  19. Closing the sea level budget on a regional scale : Trends and variability on the Northwestern European continental shelf

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frederikse, Thomas; Riva, Riccardo; Kleinherenbrink, Marcel; Wada, Yoshihide; van den Broeke, Michiel; Marzeion, Ben

    2016-01-01

    Long-term trends and decadal variability of sea level in the North Sea and along the Norwegian coast have been studied over the period 1958–2014. We model the spatially nonuniform sea level and solid earth response to large-scale ice melt and terrestrial water storage changes. GPS observations,

  20. The disposal of low-level radioactive waste into the sea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saruhashi, Katsuko

    1979-01-01

    Disposal of low-level radioactive wastes is made both on land and in sea. Though the land disposal has been already carried out in the U.S.A. and the U.S.S.R., it is impossible in the narrow land of Japan. In the United States, the wastes solidified with cement in drums were previously abandoned in deep seas of the Pacific and the Atlantic. This is no longer done presently; instead, the land disposal is employed due to its lower costs. In European countries, the sea disposal is performed under OECDNEA, trial disposal in 1961 and full-scale disposal since 1967, in the Atlantic. Meanwhile, in Japan, test sea disposal will be carried out in the near future in deep sea of the northern Pacific, the important sea area for fisheries. The international trends of the deep sea disposal of low-level wastes and the correspondent trends of the same in Japan, in the past years are described. (J.P.N.)

  1. Orbit-related sea level errors for TOPEX altimetry at seasonal to decadal timescales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esselborn, Saskia; Rudenko, Sergei; Schöne, Tilo

    2018-03-01

    Interannual to decadal sea level trends are indicators of climate variability and change. A major source of global and regional sea level data is satellite radar altimetry, which relies on precise knowledge of the satellite's orbit. Here, we assess the error budget of the radial orbit component for the TOPEX/Poseidon mission for the period 1993 to 2004 from a set of different orbit solutions. The errors for seasonal, interannual (5-year), and decadal periods are estimated on global and regional scales based on radial orbit differences from three state-of-the-art orbit solutions provided by different research teams: the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), the Groupe de Recherche de Géodésie Spatiale (GRGS), and the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The global mean sea level error related to orbit uncertainties is of the order of 1 mm (8 % of the global mean sea level variability) with negligible contributions on the annual and decadal timescales. In contrast, the orbit-related error of the interannual trend is 0.1 mm yr-1 (27 % of the corresponding sea level variability) and might hamper the estimation of an acceleration of the global mean sea level rise. For regional scales, the gridded orbit-related error is up to 11 mm, and for about half the ocean the orbit error accounts for at least 10 % of the observed sea level variability. The seasonal orbit error amounts to 10 % of the observed seasonal sea level signal in the Southern Ocean. At interannual and decadal timescales, the orbit-related trend uncertainties reach regionally more than 1 mm yr-1. The interannual trend errors account for 10 % of the observed sea level signal in the tropical Atlantic and the south-eastern Pacific. For decadal scales, the orbit-related trend errors are prominent in a several regions including the South Atlantic, western North Atlantic, central Pacific, South Australian Basin, and the Mediterranean Sea. Based on a set of test orbits calculated at GFZ, the sources of the

  2. GHRSST Level 4 RTO Terra MODIS-AMSRE Night North America Regional Blended Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 1)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on an operational basis at the JPL Physical...

  3. GHRSST Level 4 ODYSSEA North-Western Europe Regional Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 1)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on an operational basis at Ifremer/CERSAT...

  4. GHRSST Level 4 MUR Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (v4.1) (GDS versions 1 and 2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced as a retrospective dataset (four day latency) and...

  5. GHRSST Level 4 REMO_OI_SST_5km Regional Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature (SST) analysis produced daily on an operational basis by the...

  6. Possible impacts of sea-level rise on the Diep river/Rietvlei system, Cape-Town

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Hughes, P

    1993-10-01

    Full Text Available Many of the Cape Province's estuaries and tidal inlets have sandy connections to the sea and are often intensively developed for industrial or residential purposes. The possible impacts of sea-level rise are of considerable interest...

  7. GHRSST Level 4 CMC0.2deg Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature (SST) analysis produced daily on an operational basis at the Canadian...

  8. GHRSST Level 4 RTO Aqua MODIS-AMSRE Night North America Regional Blended Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 1)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on an operational basis at the JPL Physical...

  9. GHRSST Level 4 RTO Terra MODIS-AMSRE Day North America Regional Blended Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 1)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on an operational basis at the JPL Physical...

  10. GHRSST Level 4 CMC0.1deg Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature (SST) analysis produced daily on an operational basis at the Canadian...

  11. GHRSST Level 4 MW_IR_OI Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature analysis (GDS versions 1 and 2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) global Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on a 0.81 degree grid at Remote Sensing...

  12. GHRSST Level 4 RTO Aqua MODIS-AMSRE Day North America Regional Blended Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (GDS version 1)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) Level 4 sea surface temperature analysis produced daily on an operational basis at the JPL Physical...

  13. A new 25 years Arctic Sea level record from ESA satellites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Cheng, Yongcun; Knudsen, Per

    The Arctic is an extremely challenging region for the use of remote sensing for ocean studies. One is the fact that despite 25 years of altimetry only very limited sea level observations exists in the interior of the Arctic Ocean. However, with Cryosat-2 SAR altimetry the situation is changing...... the ESA GOCE mission we are now able to derive a mean dynamic topography of the Arctic Ocean with unprecedented accuracy to constrain the ocean circulation. We present both a new estimation of the mean ocean circulation and new estimates of large scale sea level changes based on satellite data and perform...... and through development of tailored retrackers dealing with presence of sea ice within the radar footprint, we can now develop sea surface height and its variation in most of the Arctic Ocean. We have processed 5 years of Cryosat-2 data quantified as either Lead or Ocean data within the Cryosat-2 SAR mask...

  14. Allowances for evolving coastal flood risk under uncertain local sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchanan, M. K.; Kopp, R. E.; Oppenheimer, M.; Tebaldi, C.

    2015-12-01

    Sea-level rise (SLR) causes estimates of flood risk made under the assumption of stationary mean sea level to be biased low. However, adjustments to flood return levels made assuming fixed increases of sea level are also inaccurate when applied to sea level that is rising over time at an uncertain rate. To accommodate both the temporal dynamics of SLR and their uncertainty, we develop an Average Annual Design Life Level (AADLL) metric and associated SLR allowances [1,2]. The AADLL is the flood level corresponding to a time-integrated annual expected probability of occurrence (AEP) under uncertainty over the lifetime of an asset; AADLL allowances are the adjustment from 2000 levels that maintain current risk. Given non-stationary and uncertain SLR, AADLL flood levels and allowances provide estimates of flood protection heights and offsets for different planning horizons and different levels of confidence in SLR projections in coastal areas. Allowances are a function primarily of local SLR and are nearly independent of AEP. Here we employ probabilistic SLR projections [3] to illustrate the calculation of AADLL flood levels and allowances with a representative set of long-duration tide gauges along U.S. coastlines. [1] Rootzen et al., 2014, Water Resources Research 49: 5964-5972. [2] Hunter, 2013, Ocean Engineering 71: 17-27. [3] Kopp et al., 2014, Earth's Future 2: 383-406.

  15. Effective inundation of continental United States communities with 21st century sea level rise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristina A. Dahl

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Recurrent, tidally driven coastal flooding is one of the most visible signs of sea level rise. Recent studies have shown that such flooding will become more frequent and extensive as sea level continues to rise, potentially altering the landscape and livability of coastal communities decades before sea level rise causes coastal land to be permanently inundated. In this study, we identify US communities that will face effective inundation—defined as having 10% or more of livable land area flooded at least 26 times per year—with three localized sea level rise scenarios based on projections for the 3rd US National Climate Assessment. We present these results in a new, online interactive tool that allows users to explore when and how effective inundation will impact their communities. In addition, we identify communities facing effective inundation within the next 30 years that contain areas of high socioeconomic vulnerability today using a previously published vulnerability index. With the Intermediate-High and Highest sea level rise scenarios, 489 and 668 communities, respectively, would face effective inundation by the year 2100. With these two scenarios, more than half of communities facing effective inundation by 2045 contain areas of current high socioeconomic vulnerability. These results highlight the timeframes that US coastal communities have to respond to disruptive future inundation. The results also underscore the importance of limiting future warming and sea level rise: under the Intermediate-Low scenario, used as a proxy for sea level rise under the Paris Climate Agreement, 199 fewer communities would be effectively inundated by 2100.

  16. Quantifying and Projecting Relative Sea-Level Rise in The Deltaic Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shum, C. K.; Chung-Yen, K.; Calmant, S.; Yang, T. Y.; Guo, Q.; Jia, Y.; Ballu, V.; Guo, J.; Karptychev, M.; Krien, Y.; Kusche, J.; Tseng, K. H.; Wan, J.; Uebbing, B.

    2017-12-01

    Half of the world's population lives within 200 km of coastlines. Accelerated sea-level rise, compounded by effects of population growth, severe land subsidence due to fluvial sediment compaction/load, and anthropogenic oil and natural gas and ground water extraction, tectonic motion, and the increasing threat of more intense and more frequent cyclone-driven storm surges, have exacerbated the vulnerability of many of world's deltaic regions, including the Bangladesh and the Mississippi River Deltas. At present, understanding and quantifying the natural and anthropogenic processes governing these solid Earth vertical motion processes remain elusive to enable addressing coastal vulnerability due to current and future projection of relative sea-level rise for deltaic regions at the regional scales. Bangladesh, a low-lying and one of the most densely populated countries in the world located at the Bay of Bengal, is prone to transboundary monsoonal flooding, and is believed to be aggravated by more frequent and intensified cyclones resulting from anthropogenic climate change. The Mississippi River Deltaic region has been severely subsiding due primarily to fluvial sediment compaction and load during the last 10 centuries, oil/gas and groundwater extractions, and commercial developments, making it vulnerable to sea-level rise hazards. Here we present results of global geocentric sea-level rise, 1950-2016, separating vertical land motion at global tide gauge datum, by integrating tide gauge and radar altimeter records in a novel sea-level reconstruction scheme, focusing on the Mississippi River and the Bangladesh Deltas. We then integrate the resulting sea level estimates with historic imageries, GPS and InSAR data, as well as sediment isostatic and load model predicted present-day land subsidence, to constrain the 3D land motion to study the impacts of various scenarios of future relative sea level projections on the Bangladesh Delta to the end of the 21st Century and

  17. Projecting Impacts of Uncertain Sea Level Variability and Rise on Coast Groundwater Systems: South Florida Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thenault, F.; Karamperidou, C.; Lall, U.; Engel, V.; Kwon, H.; Obeysekera, J.

    2009-12-01

    Sea level change is a major concern for most coastal areas, with impacts on ecosystems, infrastructure, water supply facilities, and aspects of the socioeconomic structure of coastal communities. A potential impact of sea level changes is salinization of groundwater resources, with the attendant need to relocate water supply facilities on one hand, and to address the consequences on sensitive ecosystems on the other. South Florida epitomizes such concerns, due to the growing population, and the need to protect the Everglades National Park (ENP), where a hydrologic and ecologic restoration project is underway. We postulate that the dynamic fluctuations in sea levels, in addition to the projected anthropogenic rise may be important to assess. There is considerable uncertainty as to how much sea level may rise on average in the 21st century. However, fluctuations in sea level due to natural variability in ocean and atmospheric circulation patterns is evident from the long tidal gauge records in the region. These variations occur at the time scales of synoptic events such as hurricanes, and also at seasonal, inter-annual and decadal time scales. The dynamic response to such fluctuations is important for management of the Everglades ecosystem, where the surface and shallow groundwater systems are tightly coupled, and where the ecosystem structure is very sensitive to salinization, particularly if the baseline sea level keeps increasing. For the deeper groundwater system in the region that is used for water supply, the frequency of chronic salinization as pumping increases in response to population growth is a concern. In this initial work, we parametrically explore the response of the ENP groundwater system to changes in sea level at different time scales, and also to potential scenarios for groundwater pumping, via statistical and numerical modeling.

  18. Global increasing of mean sea level and erroneous treatment of a role of thermal factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barkin, Yu. V.

    2009-04-01

    Satellite methods of studies of the ocean surface - methods of altimetry - have been obtained intensive development in the last decades (since 1993). However, altimetry studies with the help of special satellites such as TOPEX-Poseidon not only have not cleared up understanding of the phenomenon of increase of sea level (SLR), but have even more confused and without that a complex question on the reasons of increase of sea level. Appeared, that classical determinations of average velocity of increase of sea level on coastal observations (1.4-1.7 mm / yr) approximately for 0.8-1.0 mm / yr it is less, rather than by modern satellite determinations of satellites TOPEX - Poseidon etc. (2.5 - 2.8 mm / yr). On the basis of the data of altimetry observations of TOPEX-Poseidon and Jason for the period 1993-2003 for geocentric velocity of increase of sea level (of global ocean) the value 2.8+/-0.4 mm / yr [1] has been obtained. In the given report the full answer is actually is given to a question put by leading experts on research of the sea level: "The TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason satellite altimeter missions provided a 12 year record of sea level change, which show increase of global mean sea level of 2.8+/-0.4 mm/yr, with considerable geographic variation. An important question for climate studies is to determine the cause of this change - specifically how much of the change is due to steric (heating) versus eustatic (runoff, melting ice, etc.) contribution?" [1]. There is, a big value of average velocity of increase of the sea level on the satellite data, it is possible to explain only by kinematical effect in data of observations. The motion of the satellite "is concerned" to the centre of mass of our planet, and its position is determined by a geocentric radius - vector. Therefore northern drift of the centre of mass in the Earth body [2] as though results in reduction of distances from the satellite up to the sea surface in the southern hemisphere and to their reduction

  19. The case for deep-sea disposal of low-level solid radioactive wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewis, J.B.

    1983-01-01

    The scientific justification for the sea disposal of low-level solid radioactive wastes is summarized and the relevant national and international codes of practice and legislation are outlined. It is concluded that, since the amount of radioactivity disposed of in the oceans is very small compared with the natural radioactivity, the environmental hazard is small and sea dumping could be increased. (U.K.)

  20. The Inhomogeneous Tropospheric Warming as the driver of Tropical Sea Level Pressure and Walker Circulation Changes

    OpenAIRE

    Bayr, Tobias; Dommenget, Dietmar

    2013-01-01

    In this presentation we follow the idea to split up the global warming signal in a spatial homogeneous warming and in a spatial inhomogeneous warming. In Bayr and Dommenget (2012) the changes of the tropical sea level pressure (SLP) due to inhomo-geneous tropospheric warming in climate change, which is mostly the land-sea warming contrast, was investigated in a multi model ensemble. The amplitude of the inhomogeneous tropospheric warming is roughly 10 times smaller than the total warming of t...

  1. Response of Arctic sea level and hydrography to hydrological regime change over boreal catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tourian, Mohammad J.; Sneeuw, Nico; Losch, Martin; Rabe, Benjamin

    2016-04-01

    Changes in freshwater influx into the Arctic Ocean are a key driver of regional dynamics and sea level change in the Arctic waters. Low-salinity surface waters maintain a strong stratification in the Arctic. This halocline largely shields the cool polar surface water and sea ice from the warmer waters of Atlantic origin below and, hence, inhibits vertical heat fluxes of heat, salt and nutrients. Recently observed changes in the freshwater content of the upper Arctic Ocean raise the question of the effect of these changes on the region. Changes in the freshwater budget affect regional steric sea level, but also the modified ocean dynamics may change sea level through mass transports within the Arctic. One component of the freshwater budget is continental runoff. The hydrological regime of river runoff appears to be non-stationary. There is both interannual variability and a significantly positive trend since the 1970s. The decreasing Arctic sea-ice cover may be a possible reason for the non-stationary behavior of runoff, especially in coastal and marginal seas. The decrease of sea ice due to global warming would lead to cloud formation and, indeed, increased precipitation. During the warmer season, increased precipitation would lead to more discharge of freshwater to the Arctic shelves and basins. The observational record of discharge into the Arctic Ocean, however, is still too sparse to address important science questions about the long-term behavior and development of Arctic sea level and climate. Given the insufficient monitoring from in situ gauge networks, and without any outlook of improvement, spaceborne approaches are currently being investigated. In this contribution we assess the long-term behavior of monthly runoff time series obtained from hydro-geodetic approaches and explore the effects of interannual runoff variability and long term trends on ocean model simulations.

  2. Arctic sea level change over the past 2 decades from GRACE gradiometry and multi-mission satellite altimetry

    OpenAIRE

    Andersen, O. B.; Stenseng, L.; Sørensen, C. S.; Cheng, Y.; Knudsen, P.

    2014-01-01

    The Arctic is still an extremely challenging region for theuse of remote sensing for sea level studies. Despite the availability of 20 years of altimetry, only very limited sea level observations exist in the interior of the Arctic Ocean. However, with Cryosat-2 SAR altimetry the situation is changing and through development of tailored retrackers dealing with presence of sea ice within the radar footprint, we can now develop sea surface height and its variation in most of the Arctic Ocean. W...

  3. Coralgal reef morphology records punctuated sea-level rise during the last deglaciation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khanna, Pankaj; Droxler, André W; Nittrouer, Jeffrey A; Tunnell, John W; Shirley, Thomas C

    2017-10-19

    Coralgal reefs preserve the signatures of sea-level fluctuations over Earth's history, in particular since the Last Glacial Maximum 20,000 years ago, and are used in this study to indicate that punctuated sea-level rise events are more common than previously observed during the last deglaciation. Recognizing the nature of past sea-level rises (i.e., gradual or stepwise) during deglaciation is critical for informing models that predict future vertical behavior of global oceans. Here we present high-resolution bathymetric and seismic sonar data sets of 10 morphologically similar drowned reefs that grew during the last deglaciation and spread 120 km apart along the south Texas shelf edge. Herein, six commonly observed terrace levels are interpreted to be generated by several punctuated sea-level rise events forcing the reefs to shrink and backstep through time. These systematic and common terraces are interpreted to record punctuated sea-level rise events over timescales of decades to centuries during the last deglaciation, previously recognized only during the late Holocene.

  4. Reconstruction of Local Sea Levels at South West Pacific Islands—A Multiple Linear Regression Approach (1988-2014)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, V.; Melet, A.; Meyssignac, B.; Ganachaud, A.; Kessler, W. S.; Singh, A.; Aucan, J.

    2018-02-01

    Rising sea levels are a critical concern in small island nations. The problem is especially serious in the western south Pacific, where the total sea level rise over the last 60 years has been up to 3 times the global average. In this study, we aim at reconstructing sea levels at selected sites in the region (Suva, Lautoka—Fiji, and Nouméa—New Caledonia) as a multilinear regression (MLR) of atmospheric and oceanic variables. We focus on sea level variability at interannual-to-interdecadal time scales, and trend over the 1988-2014 period. Local sea levels are first expressed as a sum of steric and mass changes. Then a dynamical approach is used based on wind stress curl as a proxy for the thermosteric component, as wind stress curl anomalies can modulate the thermocline depth and resultant sea levels via Rossby wave propagation. Statistically significant predictors among wind stress curl, halosteric sea level, zonal/meridional wind stress components, and sea surface temperature are used to construct a MLR model simulating local sea levels. Although we are focusing on the local scale, the global mean sea level needs to be adjusted for. Our reconstructions provide insights on key drivers of sea level variability at the selected sites, showing that while local dynamics and the global signal modulate sea level to a given extent, most of the variance is driven by regional factors. On average, the MLR model is able to reproduce 82% of the variance in island sea level, and could be used to derive local sea level projections via downscaling of climate models.

  5. Topex-Poseidon analysis of sea level variability over the Atlantic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catalan P-U, M.; Villares, P.; Catalan, M.; Gomez-Enri, J.

    2003-04-01

    The variability of sea level and surface geostrophic currents in Atlantic Ocean is investigated using 333 cycles of altimeter information obtained by TOPEX-POSEIDON satellite. After the improvements of orbit accuracy, the most important concern to studies of sea level variability from altimeter height data are related with the formalism used for modelling the altimetric measurement corrections. Presently, one of the main sources of potential error is the correction for atmospheric pressure loading, the so-called ‘inverse barometer effect’. As is well known, this correction is intended to adjust the sea surface elevation for the static effects of the downward force of the mass of the atmosphere on the sea surface, adjusted, in this oversimplified model in 1cm/mbar. The exact response of the sea surface to atmospheric pressure loading depends on the space and time scales of the pressure field and must be specially a concern at high latitudes where atmospheric pressure fluctuations are large due to the intensity of low pressure fields at these latitudes and the additional uncertainty in the model estimates of the local sea level pressure. To study these effects over the whole Atlantic Ocean we compute a linear regression adjustment and an Empirical Orthogonal Functions Decomposition (EOFD), between sea level variation without inverse barometer correction and the atmospheric pressure, in all the Topex-Poseidon cross points over the whole Atlantic, including both the Artic and Antarctic Oceans. We use the barometric factor computed from the linear regression to correct the satellite mean sea level variation, comparing the correlation with the pressure. Our results show an important improvement in the decorrelation between sea level and atmospheric pressure time series, compared with the use of Inverse Barometer model, at most of the satellite cross points. The complicated nature of sea level variability at high latitudes justify that EOFD analysis conclusions

  6. Tidal notches, coastal landforms and relative sea-level changes during the Late Quaternary at Ustica Island (Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furlani, Stefano; Antonioli, Fabrizio; Cavallaro, Danilo; Chirco, Pietro; Caldareri, Francesco; Martin, Franco Foresta; Morticelli, Maurizio Gasparo; Monaco, Carmelo; Sulli, Attilio; Quarta, Gianluca; Biolchi, Sara; Sannino, Gianmaria; de Vita, Sandro; Calcagnile, Lucio; Agate, Mauro

    2017-12-01

    In this paper we present and discuss data concerning the morphostructural evolution at Ustica Island (Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy) during Late Quaternary. New insights on the relative sea-level changes of Ustica are coming from data collected during a geomorphological field survey around the island, together with the bathymetric analysis of the surrounding seabed and 14C datings on samples of speleothems, flowstones and marine shells found inside three selected sea caves. The survey was mainly accomplished on June 2015 through the first complete snorkel investigation off the about 18 km-long volcanic coast of the island, which allowed to precisely define location, relationship and morphometric features of coastal landforms associated with modern sea level. This study highlights the occurrence, for the first time in the Mediterranean, of tidal notches in correspondence of carbonate inclusions in volcanic rocks. The elevation of the modern tidal notch suggests that no significant vertical deformations occurred in the southeastern and eastern sectors of Ustica in the last 100 years. However, the presence of pillow lavas along the coast demonstrates that Ustica was affected by a regional uplift since the Late Quaternary, as also confirmed by MIS5.5 deposits located at about 30 m a.s.l., which suggests an average uplift rate of 0.23 mm/y. Radiocarbon dating of fossil barnacles collected inside the Grotta Segreta cave indicate an age of 1823 ± 104 cal. BP. The difference in height with respect to living barnacles in the same site suggests that their present elevation could be related to stick-slip coseismic deformations caused by the four earthquake sequences (two of which with Mw = 4.63 ± 0.46) that strongly struck the island between 1906 and 1924.

  7. North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study Phase I: Statistical Analysis of Historical Extreme Water Levels with Sea Level Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-01

    generally rising as a result of regional water body thermal expansion. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC ) AR4 ( IPCC 2007) estimate of...assessing potential measures/projects that would reduce flood risk and increase resiliency. Potential future climate change must be included in the risk...level time series are detrended prior to the computation of storm surge because the observed water levels exhibit the effects of sea level change and

  8. Assessing water quality of the Chesapeake Bay by the impact of sea level rise and warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, P.; Linker, L.; Wang, H.; Bhatt, G.; Yactayo, G.; Hinson, K.; Tian, R.

    2017-08-01

    The influence of sea level rise and warming on circulation and water quality of the Chesapeake Bay under projected climate conditions in 2050 were estimated by computer simulation. Four estuarine circulation scenarios in the estuary were run using the same watershed load in 1991-2000 period. They are, 1) the Base Scenario, which represents the current climate condition, 2) a Sea Level Rise Scenario, 3) a Warming Scenario, and 4) a combined Sea Level Rise and Warming Scenario. With a 1.6-1.9°C increase in monthly air temperatures in the Warming Scenario, water temperature in the Bay is estimated to increase by 0.8-1°C. Summer average anoxic volume is estimated to increase 1.4 percent compared to the Base Scenario, because of an increase in algal blooms in the spring and summer, promotion of oxygen consumptive processes, and an increase of stratification. However, a 0.5-meter Sea Level Rise Scenario results in a 12 percent reduction of anoxic volume. This is mainly due to increased estuarine circulation that promotes oxygen-rich sea water intrusion in lower layers. The combined Sea Level Rise and Warming Scenario results in a 10.8 percent reduction of anoxic volume. Global warming increases precipitation and consequently increases nutrient loads from the watershed by approximately 5-7 percent. A scenario that used a 10 percent increase in watershed loads and current estuarine circulation patterns yielded a 19 percent increase in summer anoxic volume, while a scenario that used a 10 percent increase in watershed loads and modified estuarine circulation patterns by the aforementioned sea level rise and warming yielded a 6 percent increase in summer anoxic volume. Impacts on phytoplankton, sediments, and water clarity were also analysed.

  9. Assessment on the Vulnerability of Mangrove Ecosystems in the Guangxi Coastal Zone under Sea Level Rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, S.; Ge, Z.; Zhang, L.

    2013-12-01

    Sea level rise caused by global climate change will have significant impacts on coastal zone. The mangrove ecosystems occur at the intertidal zone in tropical and subtropical coasts and are particularly sensitive to sea level rise. To study the responses of mangrove ecosystems to sea level rise, assess the impacts of sea level rise on mangrove ecosystem and formulate the feasible and practical mitigation strategies are the important prerequisites for securing the coastal ecosystems. In this research, taking the mangrove ecosystems in the coastal zone of Guangxi province, China as a case study, the potential impacts of sea level rise on the mangrove ecosystems were analyzed by adopting the SPRC (Source-Pathway- Receptor- Consequence) model. An index system for