WorldWideScience

Sample records for absolute risk reduction

  1. Absolute risk, absolute risk reduction and relative risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose Andres Calvache

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This article illustrates the epidemiological concepts of absolute risk, absolute risk reduction and relative risk through a clinical example. In addition, it emphasizes the usefulness of these concepts in clinical practice, clinical research and health decision-making process.

  2. Binomial Distribution Sample Confidence Intervals Estimation 7. Absolute Risk Reduction and ARR-like Expressions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrei ACHIMAŞ CADARIU

    2004-08-01

    Full Text Available Assessments of a controlled clinical trial suppose to interpret some key parameters as the controlled event rate, experimental event date, relative risk, absolute risk reduction, relative risk reduction, number needed to treat when the effect of the treatment are dichotomous variables. Defined as the difference in the event rate between treatment and control groups, the absolute risk reduction is the parameter that allowed computing the number needed to treat. The absolute risk reduction is compute when the experimental treatment reduces the risk for an undesirable outcome/event. In medical literature when the absolute risk reduction is report with its confidence intervals, the method used is the asymptotic one, even if it is well know that may be inadequate. The aim of this paper is to introduce and assess nine methods of computing confidence intervals for absolute risk reduction and absolute risk reduction – like function.Computer implementations of the methods use the PHP language. Methods comparison uses the experimental errors, the standard deviations, and the deviation relative to the imposed significance level for specified sample sizes. Six methods of computing confidence intervals for absolute risk reduction and absolute risk reduction-like functions were assessed using random binomial variables and random sample sizes.The experiments shows that the ADAC, and ADAC1 methods obtains the best overall performance of computing confidence intervals for absolute risk reduction.

  3. Prediction of absolute risk reduction of cardiovascular events with perindopril for individual patients with stable coronary artery disease - results from EUROPA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Leeuw, Joep; Oemrawsingh, Rohit M.; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Brugts, Jasper J.; Deckers, Jaap W.; Bertrand, Michel; Fox, Kim; Ferrari, Roberto; Remme, Willem J.; Simoons, Maarten L.; Boersma, Eric; Visseren, Frank L J

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibition reduces the risk of cardiovascular events at a group level. Presumably, the absolute effect of treatment varies between individuals. We sought to develop multivariable prediction scores to estimate individual treatment effect of perindopril in

  4. Obsolete tobacco control themes can be hazardous to public health: the need for updating views on absolute product risks and harm reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lynn T. Kozlowski

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Leading themes have guided tobacco control efforts, and these themes have changed over the decades. When questions arose about health risks of tobacco, they focused on two key themes: 1 how bad is the problem (i.e., absolute risk and 2 what can be done to reduce the risk without cessation (i.e., prospects for harm reduction. Using the United States since 1964 as an example, we outline the leading themes that have arisen in response to these two questions. Initially, there was the recognition that “cigarettes are hazardous to health” and an acceptance of safer alternative tobacco products (cigars, pipes, light/lower-tar cigarettes. In the 1980s there was the creation of the seminal theme that “Cigarettes are lethal when used as intended and kill more people than heroin, cocaine, alcohol, AIDS, fires, homicide, suicide, and automobile crashes combined.” By around 2000, support for a less-dangerous light/lower tar cigarette was gone, and harm reduction claims were avoided for products like cigars and even for smokeless tobacco which were summarized as “unsafe” or “not a safe alternative to cigarettes.” Discussion The Surgeon General in 2014 concluded that by far the greatest danger to public health was from cigarettes and other combusted products. At the same time the evidence base for smokeless tobacco and alternative nicotine delivery systems (ANDS had grown. Product innovation and tobacco/nicotine bio-behavioral, epidemiological and public health sciences demonstrate that low nitrosamine smokeless tobacco (e.g., Swedish snus, and ANDS have substantially lower harms than cigarettes. Going forward, it is important to sharpen themes and key messages of tobacco control, while continuing to emphasize the extreme lethality of the inhaled smoke from cigarettes or from use of any combusting tobacco product. Summary Implications of updating the leading themes for regulation, policymaking and advocacy in tobacco control

  5. Targeting LDL Cholesterol: Beyond Absolute Goals Toward Personalized Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leibowitz, Morton; Cohen-Stavi, Chandra; Basu, Sanjay; Balicer, Ran D

    2017-06-01

    The aim of this study was to review and assess the evidence for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) treatment goals as presented in current guidelines for primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease. Different sets of guidelines and clinical studies for secondary prevention have centered on lower absolute LDL-C targets [achieve greater reductions in cardiovascular risk. Population-based risk models serve as the basis for statin initiation in primary prevention. Reviews of current population risk models for primary prevention show moderate ability to discriminate [with c-statistics ranging from 0.67 to 0.77 (95% CIs from 0.62 to 0.83) for men and women] with poor calibration and overestimation of risk. Individual clinical trial data are not compelling to support specific LDL-C targets and percent reductions in secondary prevention. Increasing utilization of electronic health records and data analytics will enable the development of individualized treatment goals in both primary and secondary prevention.

  6. Relative and absolute risk in epidemiology and health physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldsmith, R.; Peterson, H.T. Jr.

    1983-01-01

    The health risk from ionizing radiation commonly is expressed in two forms: (1) the relative risk, which is the percentage increase in natural disease rate and (2) the absolute or attributable risk which represents the difference between the natural rate and the rate associated with the agent in question. Relative risk estimates for ionizing radiation generally are higher than those expressed as the absolute risk. This raises the question of which risk estimator is the most appropriate under different conditions. The absolute risk has generally been used for radiation risk assessment, although mathematical combinations such as the arithmetic or geometric mean of both the absolute and relative risks, have also been used. Combinations of the two risk estimators are not valid because the absolute and relative risk are not independent variables. Both human epidemiologic studies and animal experimental data can be found to illustrate the functional relationship between the natural cancer risk and the risk associated with radiation. This implies that the radiation risk estimate derived from one population may not be appropriate for predictions in another population, unless it is adjusted for the difference in the natural disease incidence between the two populations

  7. Development and Validation of a Model to Predict Absolute Vascular Risk Reduction by Moderate-Intensity Statin Therapy in Individual Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: The Anglo Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial, Antihypertensive and Lipid-Lowering Treatment to Prevent Heart Attack Trial, and Collaborative Atorvastatin Diabetes Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kaasenbrood, Lotte; Poulter, Neil R.; Sever, Peter S.; Colhoun, Helen M.; Livingstone, Shona J.; Boekholdt, S. Matthijs; Pressel, Sara L.; Davis, Barry R.; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Visseren, Frank L. J.

    2016-01-01

    In this study, we aimed to translate the average relative effect of statin therapy from trial data to the individual patient with type 2 diabetes mellitus by developing and validating a model to predict individualized absolute risk reductions (ARR) of cardiovascular events. Data of 2725 patients

  8. Decreasing Absolute Risk Aversion and Option Pricing Bounds

    OpenAIRE

    Antonella Basso; Paolo Pianca

    1997-01-01

    In this paper efficient bounds for the price of a call option are obtained using the decreasing absolute risk aversion (DARA) dominance rule. Such lower and upper bounds are obtained minimizing and maximizing, respectively, the objective function of a nonlinear optimization problem. An explicit formula (related to an exponential utility function) is given for the special case of three states of nature. A large number of experiments have been carried out and the numerical results support the c...

  9. Absolute standard hydrogen electrode potential measured by reduction of aqueous nanodrops in the gas phase.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald, William A; Leib, Ryan D; O'Brien, Jeremy T; Bush, Matthew F; Williams, Evan R

    2008-03-19

    In solution, half-cell potentials are measured relative to those of other half cells, thereby establishing a ladder of thermochemical values that are referenced to the standard hydrogen electrode (SHE), which is arbitrarily assigned a value of exactly 0 V. Although there has been considerable interest in, and efforts toward, establishing an absolute electrochemical half-cell potential in solution, there is no general consensus regarding the best approach to obtain this value. Here, ion-electron recombination energies resulting from electron capture by gas-phase nanodrops containing individual [M(NH3)6]3+, M = Ru, Co, Os, Cr, and Ir, and Cu2+ ions are obtained from the number of water molecules that are lost from the reduced precursors. These experimental data combined with nanodrop solvation energies estimated from Born theory and solution-phase entropies estimated from limited experimental data provide absolute reduction energies for these redox couples in bulk aqueous solution. A key advantage of this approach is that solvent effects well past two solvent shells, that are difficult to model accurately, are included in these experimental measurements. By evaluating these data relative to known solution-phase reduction potentials, an absolute value for the SHE of 4.2 +/- 0.4 V versus a free electron is obtained. Although not achieved here, the uncertainty of this method could potentially be reduced to below 0.1 V, making this an attractive method for establishing an absolute electrochemical scale that bridges solution and gas-phase redox chemistry.

  10. Absolute cardiovascular risk in a Fiji medical zone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gyaneshwar, Rajat; Naidu, Swaran; Raban, Magdalena Z; Naidu, Sheetal; Linhart, Christine; Morrell, Stephen; Tukana, Isimeli; Taylor, Richard

    2016-02-09

    The population of Fiji has experienced emergence of non-communicable disease (NCD) and a plateau in life expectancy over the past 20 years. A mini-STEPS survey (n = 2765) was conducted in Viseisei in Western Fiji to assess NCD risk factors (RFs) in i-Taukei (Melanesians) and those of Indian descent aged 25-64 years (response 73 %). Hypertension (HT) was defined as systolic blood pressure (BP) ≥140 mmHg or diastolic BP ≥90 mmHg or on medication for HT; type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) as fasting plasma glucose ≥7.0 mmol/L or on medication for T2DM; and obesity as a body mass index (kilograms/height(metres)(2)) ≥30. Data were age-adjusted to 2007 Fiji Census. Associations between RFs and ethnicity/education were investigated. Comparisons with Fiji STEPS surveys were undertaken, and the absolute risk of a cardiovascular disease (CVD) event/death in 10 years was estimated from multiple RF charts. NCD/RFs increased with age except excessive alcohol intake and daily smoking (women) which declined. Daily smoking was higher in men 33 % (95 % confidence interval: 31-36) than women 14 % (12-116); women were more obese 40 % (37-43) than men 23 % (20-26); HT was similar in men 37 % (34-40) and women 34 % (31-36), as was T2DM in men 15 % (13-17) and women 17 % (15-19). i-Taukei men had an odds ratio (OR) of 0.41 (0.28-0.58) for T2DM compared to Indians (1.00); and i-Taukei (both sexes) had a higher OR for obesity and low fruit/vegetable intake, daily smoking, excessive alcohol intake and HT in females. Increasing education correlated with lesser smoking, but with higher obesity and lower fruit/vegetable intake. Compared to the 2011 Fiji STEPS survey, no significant differences were evident in obesity, HT or T2DM prevalences. The proportion (40-64 years) classified at high or very high risk (≥20 %) of a CVD event/death (over 10 years) based on multiple RFs was 8.3 % for men (8.1 % i-Taukei, 8.5 % Indian), and 6.7 % for women (7.9 % i-Taukei, 6.0 % Indian). The results

  11. Communicating cardiovascular disease risk: an interview study of General Practitioners' use of absolute risk within tailored communication strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonner, Carissa; Jansen, Jesse; McKinn, Shannon; Irwig, Les; Doust, Jenny; Glasziou, Paul; McCaffery, Kirsten

    2014-05-29

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines encourage assessment of absolute CVD risk - the probability of a CVD event within a fixed time period, based on the most predictive risk factors. However, few General Practitioners (GPs) use absolute CVD risk consistently, and communication difficulties have been identified as a barrier to changing practice. This study aimed to explore GPs' descriptions of their CVD risk communication strategies, including the role of absolute risk. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of 25 GPs in New South Wales, Australia. Transcribed audio-recordings were thematically coded, using the Framework Analysis method to ensure rigour. GPs used absolute CVD risk within three different communication strategies: 'positive', 'scare tactic', and 'indirect'. A 'positive' strategy, which aimed to reassure and motivate, was used for patients with low risk, determination to change lifestyle, and some concern about CVD risk. Absolute risk was used to show how they could reduce risk. A 'scare tactic' strategy was used for patients with high risk, lack of motivation, and a dismissive attitude. Absolute risk was used to 'scare' them into taking action. An 'indirect' strategy, where CVD risk was not the main focus, was used for patients with low risk but some lifestyle risk factors, high anxiety, high resistance to change, or difficulty understanding probabilities. Non-quantitative absolute risk formats were found to be helpful in these situations. This study demonstrated how GPs use three different communication strategies to address the issue of CVD risk, depending on their perception of patient risk, motivation and anxiety. Absolute risk played a different role within each strategy. Providing GPs with alternative ways of explaining absolute risk, in order to achieve different communication aims, may improve their use of absolute CVD risk assessment in practice.

  12. Adequacy of relative and absolute risk models for lifetime risk estimate of radiation-induced cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McBride, M.; Coldman, A.J.

    1988-03-01

    This report examines the applicability of the relative (multiplicative) and absolute (additive) models in predicting lifetime risk of radiation-induced cancer. A review of the epidemiologic literature, and a discussion of the mathematical models of carcinogenesis and their relationship to these models of lifetime risk, are included. Based on the available data, the relative risk model for the estimation of lifetime risk is preferred for non-sex-specific epithelial tumours. However, because of lack of knowledge concerning other determinants of radiation risk and of background incidence rates, considerable uncertainty in modelling lifetime risk still exists. Therefore, it is essential that follow-up of exposed cohorts be continued so that population-based estimates of lifetime risk are available

  13. Camera-based speckle noise reduction for 3-D absolute shape measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hao; Kuschmierz, Robert; Czarske, Jürgen; Fischer, Andreas

    2016-05-30

    Simultaneous position and velocity measurements enable absolute 3-D shape measurements of fast rotating objects for instance for monitoring the cutting process in a lathe. Laser Doppler distance sensors enable simultaneous position and velocity measurements with a single sensor head by evaluating the scattered light signals. The superposition of several speckles with equal Doppler frequency but random phase on the photo detector results in an increased velocity and shape uncertainty, however. In this paper, we present a novel image evaluation method that overcomes the uncertainty limitations due to the speckle effect. For this purpose, the scattered light is detected with a camera instead of single photo detectors. Thus, the Doppler frequency from each speckle can be evaluated separately and the velocity uncertainty decreases with the square root of the number of camera lines. A reduction of the velocity uncertainty by the order of one magnitude is verified by the numerical simulations and experimental results, respectively. As a result, the measurement uncertainty of the absolute shape is not limited by the speckle effect anymore.

  14. Management of High Blood Pressure in Those without Overt Cardiovascular Disease Utilising Absolute Risk Scores

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark R. Nelson

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Increasing blood pressure has a continuum of adverse risk for cardiovascular events. Traditionally this single measure was used to determine who to treat and how vigorously. However, estimating absolute risk rather than measurement of a single risk factor such as blood pressure is a superior method to identify who is most at risk of having an adverse cardiovascular event such as stroke or myocardial infarction, and therefore who would most likely benefit from therapeutic intervention. Cardiovascular disease (CVD risk calculators must be used to estimate absolute risk in those without overt CVD as physician estimation is unreliable. Incorporation into usual practice and limitations of the strategy are discussed.

  15. Should heart age calculators be used alongside absolute cardiovascular disease risk assessment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonner, Carissa; Bell, Katy; Jansen, Jesse; Glasziou, Paul; Irwig, Les; Doust, Jenny; McCaffery, Kirsten

    2018-02-07

    National estimates of 'heart age' by government health organisations in the US, UK and China show most people have an older heart age than current age. While most heart age calculators are promoted as a communication tool for lifestyle change, they may also be used to justify medication when clinical guidelines advocate their use alongside absolute risk assessment. However, only those at high absolute risk of a heart attack or stroke are likely to benefit from medication, and it is not always clear how heart age relates to absolute risk. This article aims to: 1) explain how heart age calculation methods relate to absolute risk guidelines; 2) summarise research investigating whether heart age improves risk communication; and 3) discuss implications for the use of medication and shared decision making in clinical practice. There is a large and growing number of heart age models and online calculators, but the clinical meaning of an older heart age result is highly variable. An older heart age result may indicate low, moderate or high absolute risk of a heart attack or stroke in the next 5-10 years, and the same individual may receive a younger or older heart age result depending on which calculator is used. Heart age may help doctors convey the need to change lifestyle, but it cannot help patients make an informed choice about medication to reduce CVD risk. Interactive heart age tools may be helpful as a communication tool to initiate lifestyle change to reduce risk factors. However, absolute risk should be used instead of heart age to enable informed decision making about medication, to avoid unnecessary treatment of low risk people. Evidence-based decision aids that improve patient understanding of absolute risk should be considered as alternatives to heart age calculators for lifestyle and medication decisions.

  16. Should heart age calculators be used alongside absolute cardiovascular disease risk assessment?

    OpenAIRE

    Bonner, Carissa; Bell, Katy; Jansen, Jesse; Glasziou, Paul; Irwig, Les; Doust, Jenny; McCaffery, Kirsten

    2018-01-01

    Background National estimates of ‘heart age’ by government health organisations in the US, UK and China show most people have an older heart age than current age. While most heart age calculators are promoted as a communication tool for lifestyle change, they may also be used to justify medication when clinical guidelines advocate their use alongside absolute risk assessment. However, only those at high absolute risk of a heart attack or stroke are likely to benefit from medication, and it is...

  17. Ten-year absolute risk of osteoporotic fractures according to BMD T score at menopause

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abrahamsen, Bo; Vestergaard, Peter; Rud, Bo

    2006-01-01

    was 10.9% as opposed to an expected risk of 5.7%. Relative risk gradients were similar to those of the recent meta-analysis. CONCLUSIONS: In healthy women, examined in the first year or two after menopause, 10-year fracture risk was higher at each level of BMD T score than expected from the model...... by Kanis et al. Inclusion of HRT users in the cohorts used may have led to higher BMD values and lower absolute fracture risk in the Kanis model. These longitudinal data can be used directly in estimating absolute fracture risk in untreated north European women from BMD at menopause....

  18. RISK TRANSFER AND RISK REDUCTION OF ATHLETES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Željko Vojinović

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available One of the indispensable factors in sports is insurance. The accidents influence not only the health, permanently or temporarily,they also influence the financial resources, more or less, depending on the recovery time of the injuries. Insurer in this case pay the agreed amount (the agreed compensation to the insured. Each participant in the sporting competition should have personal insurance. The reasons for the theme are to find ways to explain how athletes can reduce the risks they are exposed to in doing their activities, training and competition, and other moments in life. Every man has a need for certainty in the future, regardless of the category in which he works, the values and skills available. The only difference is in absolute values and everyone has his own need. Athletes ,those from less successful to the most successful ones, whose transfers or fees are in millions, all think about the future and of course how to save and invest funds that are earned. They can find a solution in insurance, as an institution that takes over their risks, taking care of the invested money and benefits of those stakes. When there is uncertainty in our lives we seek security and see it as a basic need. Insurers claim that insurance offers just that - the security of property and life

  19. Development and Validation of a Model to Predict Absolute Vascular Risk Reduction by Moderate-Intensity Statin Therapy in Individual Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: The Anglo Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial, Antihypertensive and Lipid-Lowering Treatment to Prevent Heart Attack Trial, and Collaborative Atorvastatin Diabetes Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaasenbrood, Lotte; Poulter, Neil R; Sever, Peter S; Colhoun, Helen M; Livingstone, Shona J; Boekholdt, S Matthijs; Pressel, Sara L; Davis, Barry R; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Visseren, Frank L J

    2016-05-01

    In this study, we aimed to translate the average relative effect of statin therapy from trial data to the individual patient with type 2 diabetes mellitus by developing and validating a model to predict individualized absolute risk reductions (ARR) of cardiovascular events. Data of 2725 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus from the Lipid Lowering Arm of the Anglo Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial (ASCOT-LLA) study (atorvastatin 10 mg versus placebo) were used for model derivation. The model was based on 8 clinical predictors including treatment allocation (statin/placebo). Ten-year individualized ARR on major cardiovascular events by statin therapy were calculated for each patient by subtracting the estimated on-treatment risk from the estimated off-treatment risk. Predicted 10-year ARR by statin therapy was 4% (median ARR, 3.2%; interquartile range, 2.5%-4.3%; 95% confidence interval for 3.2% ARR, -1.4% to 6.8%). Addition of treatment interactions did not improve model performance. Therefore, the wide distribution in ARR was a consequence of the underlying distribution in cardiovascular risk enrolled in these trials. External validation of the model was performed in data from the Antihypertensive and Lipid-Lowering Treatment to Prevent Heart Attack Trial (ALLHAT-LLT; pravastatin 40 mg versus usual care) and Collaborative Atorvastatin Diabetes Study (CARDS; atorvastatin 10 mg versus placebo) of 3878 and 2838 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, respectively. Model calibration was adequate in both external data sets, discrimination was moderate (ALLHAT-LLT: c-statistics, 0.64 [95% confidence interval, 0.61-0.67] and CARDS: 0.68 [95% confidence interval, 0.64-0.72]). ARRs of major cardiovascular events by statin therapy can be accurately estimated for individual patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus using a model based on routinely available patient characteristics. There is a wide distribution in ARR that may complement informed decision making. URL: http

  20. The gender- and age-specific 10-year and lifetime absolute fracture risk in Tromso, Norway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmed, Luai A.; Schirmer, Henrik; Bjornerem, Ashild; Emaus, Nina; Jorgensen, Lone; Stormer, Jan; Joakimsen, Ragnar M.

    2009-01-01

    Aim of this study is to estimate the gender- and age-specific 10-year and lifetime absolute risks of non-vertebral and osteoporotic (included hip, distal forearm and proximal humerus) fractures in a large cohort of men and women. This is a population-based 10 years follow-up study of 26,891 subjects aged 25 years and older in Tromso, Norway. All non-vertebral fractures were registered from 1995 throughout 2004 by computerized search in radiographic archives. Absolute risks were estimated by life-table method taking into account the competing risk of death. The absolute fracture risk at each year of age was estimated for the next 10 years (10-year risk) or up to the age of 90 years (lifetime risk). The estimated 10-year absolute risk of all non-vertebral fracture was higher in men than women before but not after the age of 45 years. The 10-year absolute risk for non-vertebral and osteoporotic fractures was over 10%, respectively, in men over 65 and 70 years and in women over 45 and 50 years of age. The 10-year absolute risks of hip fractures at the age of 65 and 80 years were 4.2 and 18.6% in men, and 9.0 and 24.0% in women, respectively. The risk estimates for distal forearm and proximal humerus fractures were under 5% in men and 13% in women. The estimated lifetime risks for all fracture locations were higher in women than men at all ages. At the age of 50 years, the risks were 38.1 and 24.8% in men and 67.4 and 55.0% in women for all non-vertebral and osteoporotic fractures, respectively. The estimated gender- and age-specific 10-year and lifetime absolute fracture risk were higher in Tromso than in other populations. The high lifetime fracture risk reflects the increased burden of fractures in this cohort

  1. High-Risk and Low-Risk Human Papillomavirus and the Absolute Risk of Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia or Cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Louise T; Frederiksen, Kirsten; Munk, Christian

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To determine the absolute risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grade 3 or cervical cancer (CIN 3 or worse) after detection of low-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) and after a negative high-risk HPV test. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, consecutive liquid......-based cervical cytology samples were collected from women screened for cervical cancer in Copenhagen, Denmark, during 2002-2005. Samples were tested with a clinical test for 13 high-risk and five low-risk HPV types. The cohort (N=35,539; aged 14-90 years) was monitored in a nationwide pathology register for up...... to 10.5 years for development of CIN 3 or worse. RESULTS: The 8-year absolute risk of CIN 3 or worse was 1.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.0-1.3%) for HPV-negative women; 1.7% (0.8-2.6%) for low-risk HPV-positive women without concurrent high-risk HPV; 17.4% (16.4-18.5%) for high-risk HPV...

  2. Is the "Heart Age" Concept Helpful or Harmful Compared to Absolute Cardiovascular Disease Risk? An Experimental Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonner, Carissa; Jansen, Jesse; Newell, Ben R; Irwig, Les; Teixeira-Pinto, Armando; Glasziou, Paul; Doust, Jenny; McKinn, Shannon; McCaffery, Kirsten

    2015-11-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines are generally based on the absolute risk of a CVD event, but there is increasing interest in using 'heart age' to motivate lifestyle change when absolute risk is low. Previous studies have not compared heart age to 5-year absolute risk, or investigated the impact of younger heart age, graphical format, and numeracy. Compare heart age versus 5-year absolute risk on psychological and behavioral outcomes. 2 (heart age, absolute risk) × 3 (text only, bar graph, line graph) experiment. Online. 570 Australians aged 45-64 years, not taking CVD-related medication. CVD risk assessment. Intention to change lifestyle, recall, risk perception, emotional response, perceived credibility, and lifestyle behaviors after 2 weeks. Most participants had lifestyle risk factors (95%) but low 5-year absolute risk (94%). Heart age did not improve lifestyle intentions and behaviors compared to absolute risk, was more often interpreted as a higher-risk category by low-risk participants (47% vs 23%), and decreased perceived credibility and positive emotional response. Overall, correct recall dropped from 65% to 24% after 2 weeks, with heart age recalled better than absolute risk at 2 weeks (32% vs 16%). These results were found across younger and older heart age results, graphical format, and numeracy. Communicating CVD risk in a consultation rather than online may produce different results. There is no evidence that heart age motivates lifestyle change more than 5-year absolute risk in individuals with low CVD risk. Five-year absolute risk may be a better way to explain CVD risk, because it is more credible, does not inflate risk perception, and is consistent with clinical guidelines that base lifestyle and medication recommendations on absolute risk. © The Author(s) 2015.

  3. Using alternative statistical formats for presenting risks and risk reductions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akl, Elie A; Oxman, Andrew D; Herrin, Jeph; Vist, Gunn E; Terrenato, Irene; Sperati, Francesca; Costiniuk, Cecilia; Blank, Diana; Schünemann, Holger

    2011-03-16

    The success of evidence-based practice depends on the clear and effective communication of statistical information. To evaluate the effects of using alternative statistical presentations of the same risks and risk reductions on understanding, perception, persuasiveness and behaviour of health professionals, policy makers, and consumers. We searched Ovid MEDLINE (1966 to October 2007), EMBASE (1980 to October 2007), PsycLIT (1887 to October 2007), and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (The Cochrane Library, 2007, Issue 3). We reviewed the reference lists of relevant articles, and contacted experts in the field. We included randomized and non-randomized controlled parallel and cross-over studies. We focused on four comparisons: a comparison of statistical presentations of a risk (eg frequencies versus probabilities) and three comparisons of statistical presentation of risk reduction: relative risk reduction (RRR) versus absolute risk reduction (ARR), RRR versus number needed to treat (NNT), and ARR versus NNT. Two authors independently selected studies for inclusion, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias. We contacted investigators to obtain missing information. We graded the quality of evidence for each outcome using the GRADE approach. We standardized the outcome effects using adjusted standardized mean difference (SMD). We included 35 studies reporting 83 comparisons. None of the studies involved policy makers. Participants (health professionals and consumers) understood natural frequencies better than probabilities (SMD 0.69 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.45 to 0.93)). Compared with ARR, RRR had little or no difference in understanding (SMD 0.02 (95% CI -0.39 to 0.43)) but was perceived to be larger (SMD 0.41 (95% CI 0.03 to 0.79)) and more persuasive (SMD 0.66 (95% CI 0.51 to 0.81)). Compared with NNT, RRR was better understood (SMD 0.73 (95% CI 0.43 to 1.04)), was perceived to be larger (SMD 1.15 (95% CI 0.80 to 1.50)) and was more

  4. Methodological issues in cardiovascular epidemiology: the risk of determining absolute risk through statistical models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Demosthenes B Panagiotakos

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available Demosthenes B Panagiotakos, Vassilis StavrinosOffice of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, Department of Dietetics, Nutrition, Harokopio University, Athens, GreeceAbstract: During the past years there has been increasing interest in the development of cardiovascular disease functions that predict future events at individual level. However, this effort has not been so far very successful, since several investigators have reported large differences in the estimation of the absolute risk among different populations. For example, it seems that predictive models that have been derived from US or north European populations  overestimate the incidence of cardiovascular events in south European and Japanese populations. A potential explanation could be attributed to several factors such as geographical, cultural, social, behavioral, as well as genetic variations between the investigated populations in addition to various methodological, statistical, issues relating to the estimation of these predictive models. Based on current literature it can be concluded that, while risk prediction of future cardiovascular events is a useful tool and might be valuable in controlling the burden of the disease in a population, further work is required to improve the accuracy of the present predictive models.Keywords: cardiovascular disease, risk, models

  5. Software for Probabilistic Risk Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hensley, Scott; Michel, Thierry; Madsen, Soren; Chapin, Elaine; Rodriguez, Ernesto

    2004-01-01

    A computer program implements a methodology, denoted probabilistic risk reduction, that is intended to aid in planning the development of complex software and/or hardware systems. This methodology integrates two complementary prior methodologies: (1) that of probabilistic risk assessment and (2) a risk-based planning methodology, implemented in a prior computer program known as Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP), in which multiple requirements and the beneficial effects of risk-mitigation actions are taken into account. The present methodology and the software are able to accommodate both process knowledge (notably of the efficacy of development practices) and product knowledge (notably of the logical structure of a system, the development of which one seeks to plan). Estimates of the costs and benefits of a planned development can be derived. Functional and non-functional aspects of software can be taken into account, and trades made among them. It becomes possible to optimize the planning process in the sense that it becomes possible to select the best suite of process steps and design choices to maximize the expectation of success while remaining within budget.

  6. Pre-Feedback Risk Expectancies and Reception of Low-Risk Health Feedback: Absolute and Comparative Lack of Reassurance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gamp, Martina; Renner, Britta

    2016-11-01

    Personalised health-risk assessment is one of the most common components of health promotion programs. Previous research on responses to health risk feedback has commonly focused on the reception of bad news (high-risk feedback). The reception of low-risk feedback has been comparably neglected since it is assumed that good news is reassuring and readily received. However, field studies suggest mixed responses to low-risk health feedback. Accordingly, we examine whether pre-feedback risk expectancies can mitigate the reassuring effects of good news. In two studies (N = 187, N = 565), after assessing pre-feedback risk expectancies, participants received low-risk personalised feedback about their own risk of developing (the fictitious) Tucson Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (TCFS). Study 2 also included peer TCFS risk status feedback. Afterwards, self- and peer-related risk perception for TCFS was assessed. In both studies, participants who expected to be at high risk but received good news (unexpected low-risk feedback) showed absolute lack of reassurance. Specifically, they felt at significantly greater TCFS risk than participants who received expected good news. Moreover, the unexpected low-risk group even believed that their risk was as high as (Study 1) or higher (Study 2) than that of their peers (comparative lack of reassurance). Results support the notion that high pre-feedback risk expectancies can mitigate absolute and comparative reassuring effects of good news. © 2016 The International Association of Applied Psychology.

  7. Risk reduction: perioperative smoking intervention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Ann; Tønnesen, Hanne

    2006-01-01

    Smoking is a well-known risk factor for perioperative complications. Smokers experience an increased incidence of respiratory complications during anaesthesia and an increased risk of postoperative cardiopulmonary complications, infections and impaired wound healing. Smokers have a greater risk o...

  8. Relative and absolute risk models for cancer mortality in ankylosing spondylitis patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muirhead, C.R.; Darby, S.C.

    1989-01-01

    The updated analyses presented in this paper have indicated that, even after allowing for the effects of other variables, the relative risk of all cancers excluding leukaemia and colon cancer among the irradiated spondylitics tails off beyond twenty-five years following exposure. Additionally, the corresponding absolute excess risk also tails off. This is still the only major study to show a wearing off of the radiation-related risk for such a grouping of cancers (although some wearing off has been seen for individual cancers such as bone in other studies). Further analysis of the spondylitic data (Darby, Doll and Smith, 1988) has not found any artificial explanation for the tailing off in risk, such as changes in lifestyle. However, it is noticeable that the dose was delivered to the spondylitics in fractions (see Lewis et al., 1988, table IV) rather than instantaneously, although it is not immediately obvious why this should have affected the temporal pattern of the risk. (author)

  9. Distinguishing relative and absolute risk models for radiation-induced cancers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muirhead, C.R.; Darby, S.C.

    1987-01-01

    Methods for distinguishing between the goodness-of-fit of relative and absolute risk models are applied to mortality data from atomic bomb survivors at Hiroshima for the disease grouping consisting of all cancers other than leukaemia. The effect of allowing the radiation-induced risk to depend on variables such as sex, age at exposure and/or time since exposure is illustrated. Predicted numbers of deaths and numbers of years of life lost in an irradiated population are calculated for those models that fit the data well. Problems in extrapolating beyond the period for which follow-up data are currently available are emphasized. (author)

  10. Risk reduction: perioperative smoking intervention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Ann; Tønnesen, Hanne

    2006-01-01

    approach to smoking intervention results in a significantly better postoperative outcome. Future research should focus upon the effect of a shorter period of preoperative smoking cessation. All smokers admitted for surgery should be informed of the increased risk, recommended preoperative smoking cessation......Smoking is a well-known risk factor for perioperative complications. Smokers experience an increased incidence of respiratory complications during anaesthesia and an increased risk of postoperative cardiopulmonary complications, infections and impaired wound healing. Smokers have a greater risk...... of postoperative intensive care admission. Even passive smoking is associated with increased risk at operation. Preoperative smoking intervention 6-8 weeks before surgery can reduce the complications risk significantly. Four weeks of abstinence from smoking seems to improve wound healing. An intensive, individual...

  11. Risk reduction: perioperative smoking intervention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Ann; Tønnesen, Hanne

    2006-01-01

    Smoking is a well-known risk factor for perioperative complications. Smokers experience an increased incidence of respiratory complications during anaesthesia and an increased risk of postoperative cardiopulmonary complications, infections and impaired wound healing. Smokers have a greater risk...... of postoperative intensive care admission. Even passive smoking is associated with increased risk at operation. Preoperative smoking intervention 6-8 weeks before surgery can reduce the complications risk significantly. Four weeks of abstinence from smoking seems to improve wound healing. An intensive, individual...... approach to smoking intervention results in a significantly better postoperative outcome. Future research should focus upon the effect of a shorter period of preoperative smoking cessation. All smokers admitted for surgery should be informed of the increased risk, recommended preoperative smoking cessation...

  12. Confusing Relative Risk with Absolute Risk Is Associated with More Enthusiastic Beliefs about the Value of Cancer Screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caverly, Tanner J; Prochazka, Allan V; Binswanger, Ingrid A; Kutner, Jean S; Matlock, Daniel D

    2014-07-01

    Reviews of how data are presented in medical literature document that the benefit from an intervention is often exaggerated relative to the harm (e.g., relative risk for benefit and absolute risk for harm). Such mismatched presentations may create unwarranted enthusiasm, especially among those who misinterpret the statistics presented. The objective was to determine whether misinterpretation of risk data predicts enthusiasm for cancer screening. The authors administered a survey with 14 items assessing beliefs about cancer screening and 6 items measuring data interpretation ability. Multiple linear regression was used to evaluate the association between data interpretation and enthusiasm for cancer screening, with adjustment for gender and year graduated from medical school. Eighty-eight of 139 physicians at a state-wide professional meeting returned completed surveys (63% response rate). Lower data interpretation scores were associated with higher enthusiasm for cancer screening scores (P = 0.004) in the adjusted primary analysis. Confusing relative risk with absolute risk appeared to drive the overall association. Biased presentations of risk data could affect general beliefs about the value of cancer screening, especially among physicians who uncritically accept mismatched presentations of data. © The Author(s) 2014.

  13. Realized volatility and absolute return volatility: a comparison indicating market risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zeyu Zheng

    Full Text Available Measuring volatility in financial markets is a primary challenge in the theory and practice of risk management and is essential when developing investment strategies. Although the vast literature on the topic describes many different models, two nonparametric measurements have emerged and received wide use over the past decade: realized volatility and absolute return volatility. The former is strongly favored in the financial sector and the latter by econophysicists. We examine the memory and clustering features of these two methods and find that both enable strong predictions. We compare the two in detail and find that although realized volatility has a better short-term effect that allows predictions of near-future market behavior, absolute return volatility is easier to calculate and, as a risk indicator, has approximately the same sensitivity as realized volatility. Our detailed empirical analysis yields valuable guidelines for both researchers and market participants because it provides a significantly clearer comparison of the strengths and weaknesses of the two methods.

  14. Sound transit climate risk reduction project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-01

    The Climate Risk Reduction Project assessed how climate change may affect Sound Transit commuter rail, light rail, and express bus : services. The project identified potential climate change impacts on agency operations, assets, and long-term plannin...

  15. [Substances considered addictive: prohibition, harm reduction and risk reduction].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menéndez, Eduardo

    2012-01-01

    Latin America is currently the region with the highest rate of homicides worldwide, and a large part of the killings are linked to so-called organized crime, especially drug trafficking. The trafficking of drugs is a consequence of the illegality of certain substances which - at least presently - is based in and legitimated by biomedical criteria that turns the production, commercialization and often the consumption of certain substances considered addictive into "offenses against health." This text briefly analyzes the two policies formulated and implemented thus far in terms of prohibition and harm reduction, considering the failure of prohibitionism as well as the limitations of harm reduction proposals. The constant and multiple inconsistencies and contradictions of prohibitionism are noted, indicating the necessity of regarding cautiously repeated comments about its "failure." The text proposes the implementation of a policy of risk reduction that includes not only the behavior of individuals and groups, but also the structural dimension, both in economic-political and cultural terms.

  16. Performance of models for estimating absolute risk difference in multicenter trials with binary outcome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Pedroza

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Reporting of absolute risk difference (RD is recommended for clinical and epidemiological prospective studies. In analyses of multicenter studies, adjustment for center is necessary when randomization is stratified by center or when there is large variation in patients outcomes across centers. While regression methods are used to estimate RD adjusted for baseline predictors and clustering, no formal evaluation of their performance has been previously conducted. Methods We performed a simulation study to evaluate 6 regression methods fitted under a generalized estimating equation framework: binomial identity, Poisson identity, Normal identity, log binomial, log Poisson, and logistic regression model. We compared the model estimates to unadjusted estimates. We varied the true response function (identity or log, number of subjects per center, true risk difference, control outcome rate, effect of baseline predictor, and intracenter correlation. We compared the models in terms of convergence, absolute bias and coverage of 95 % confidence intervals for RD. Results The 6 models performed very similar to each other for the majority of scenarios. However, the log binomial model did not converge for a large portion of the scenarios including a baseline predictor. In scenarios with outcome rate close to the parameter boundary, the binomial and Poisson identity models had the best performance, but differences from other models were negligible. The unadjusted method introduced little bias to the RD estimates, but its coverage was larger than the nominal value in some scenarios with an identity response. Under the log response, coverage from the unadjusted method was well below the nominal value (<80 % for some scenarios. Conclusions We recommend the use of a binomial or Poisson GEE model with identity link to estimate RD for correlated binary outcome data. If these models fail to run, then either a logistic regression, log Poisson

  17. Disaster risk reduction and sustainable development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khurshedi, N.

    2005-01-01

    During the past four decades, natural hazards such as earthquakes, volcanic activity, and slides, tsunami tropical cyclones and other severe storms, tornadoes and high winds, river floods and coastal flooding, wildfire and associated haze drought, sand/dust storms, and insect infestations have caused major loss of human lives and livelihoods, the destruction of economic and social infrastructure, as well as environmental damages. Economic losses have increased almost ten times during this period. As it happen in recent Asia Tsunami, in which over 2, 00,000 people reportedly killed, estimated five million homeless, and resulted in massive displacement of population and extensive damage to infrastructure. The escalation of severe disaster events triggered by natural hazards and related technological and environment disasters is increasingly threatening both sustainable development and poverty-reduction initiatives. The loss of human lives and the rise in the cost of reconstruction efforts and loss of development assets has forced the issue of disaster reduction and risk management higher on the policy agenda of affected governments as well a multilateral and bilateral agencies and NGOs. For this Disaster risk reduction-.strategies are aimed at enabling societies at risk to become engaged in the conscious management of risk and the reduction of vulnerability. The adoption of appropriate development policies can reduce disaster risk. These policies should be gender sensitive and need the necessary political commitment. They involve the adoption of suitable regulatory and other legal measures, institutional reform, improved analytical and methodological capabilities, financial planning, education and awareness. (author)

  18. Evolution of the excess absolute risk (EAR) in the Valencian breast cancer screening programme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferrer, S.; Ramos, M.; Villaescusa, J. I.; Verdu, G.; Salas, M. D.; Cuevas, M. D.

    2004-01-01

    Breast cancer is one of the most frequent diseases in women, with a high incidence rate. The best fight against the breast cancer is the early detection by menas of mammograms in a screening programme. The Valencian Breast Cancer Screening Programme (VBCSP) started at 1992, and it is composed of twenty-two mammography units. The programme is targeted towards asympotomatic women dfrom 45 to 69 years old, but this screening has a negative influence in the studied woman, whatever the diagnosis was. By means of MCNP-4c2 Monte Carlo code, some conversion factors from air kerma air kerma to glandular dose have been developed. Different breast woamn models, according to the Valencian brest anathomy (taking into account the relation breast radius / breast compression thickness obtained from real samples, have been simulated in order to obtain the glandular breast dose values. Quality control parameters as ESAK values were also employed for developing the methods. The conversion factors give a simple and fast wasy to obtain the mean glandular dose from mammography exposition parameters. The glandular dose has been also calculated following the European Protocol on Dosimetry in order to compare the results of the new methodology. Four sample populations of 100 omen from each uunit of the VBCSP have been taken innnn order to estimate the mean glandular dose and the associated excess absolute risk (EAR). Once the doses for each woman from the samples are obtained and according to the age of them, the EAR value for each sample has been determinated following the UNSCEAR 2000 projection risk model, which takes into account the characteristics of the Valencian population and gives the EAR for radio-induced breast cancer. The results have been calculated and compared by means of the ASQRAD software, but with an older risk projection model, the UNSCEAR 1994. Once the four sample average EAR have been calculated, the evolution of the induced risk in the Valencian Breast Cancer

  19. Ecosystem Approach To Flood Disaster Risk Reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    RK Kamble

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available India is one of the ten worst disaster prone countries of the world. The country is prone to disasters due to number of factors; both natural and anthropogenic, including adverse geo-climatic conditions, topographical features, environmental degradation, population growth, urbanisation, industrlisation, non-scientific development practices etc. The factors either in original or by accelerating the intensity and frequency of disasters are responsible for heavy toll of human lives and disrupting the life support systems in the country. India has 40 million hectares of the flood-prone area, on an average, flood affect an area of around 7.5 million hectares per year. Knowledge of environmental systems and processes are key factors in the management of disasters, particularly the hydro-metrological ones. Management of flood risk and disaster is a multi-dimensional affair that calls for interdisciplinary approach. Ecosystem based disaster risk reduction builds on ecosystem management principles, strategies and tools in order to maximise ecosystem services for risk reduction. This perspective takes into account the integration of social and ecological systems, placing people at the centre of decision making. The present paper has been attempted to demonstrate how ecosystem-based approach can help in flood disaster risk reduction. International Journal of Environment, Volume-2, Issue-1, Sep-Nov 2013, Pages 70-82 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/ije.v2i1.9209

  20. Model linear absolute and relative risk estimates for cancer induced by ionizing radiation in Mexican cohort of occupationally exposed

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alvarez, R.J.T.; Trovar, M.V.M; González, J.F.

    2015-01-01

    From the rate of natural mortality m s cancer (t) for every 100 thousand habitants, modeled by a fourth-degree polynomial function of the age data of the Mexican population (2008), and assuming: a) a relationship 1: 5 of cancer induced radiation respect to presented spontaneously, b) a size of initial cohort No = 100 k SOPs, c) a speed of H E = (2 ± 1) mSv / received by the SOPs from 18 to 65 years, d) a latency of 8 years for cancer induction after irradiation, e) a time tracking cohort to 75 years, f) and taking the coefficients absolute and relative risk BEIRs induction of cancer models II and VII (excluding leukemia); It determined: BEIR II for a total of 125 and 400 deaths from cancer for absolute and relative linear models respectively. For BEIR VII has a number of fatal cases of 345 and 927 deaths respectively for absolute and relative linear model cancer. [es

  1. POLLUTION PREVENTION RESEARCH ONGOING - EPA'S RISK REDUCTION ENGINEERING LABORATORY

    Science.gov (United States)

    The mission of the Risk Reduction Engineering Laboratory is to advance the understanding, development and application of engineering solutions for the prevention or reduction of risks from environmental contamination. This mission is accomplished through basic and applied researc...

  2. Australian general practitioners initiate statin therapy primarily on the basis of lipid levels; New Zealand general practitioners use absolute risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilling, Chris; Knight, Josh; Mortimer, Duncan; Petrie, Dennis; Clarke, Philip; Chalmers, John; Kerr, Andrew; Jackson, Rod

    2017-12-01

    To compare the determinants of initial statin prescribing between New Zealand and Australia. New Zealand has a system-wide absolute risk-based approach to primary care cardiovascular disease (CVD) management, while Australia has multiple guidelines. Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis of two observational studies of primary care CVD management from New Zealand (PREDICT-CVD) and Australia (AusHeart). Over 80% of eligible New Zealanders have been screened for CVD risk. PREDICT-CVD is used by approximately one-third of New Zealand GPs to perform web-based CVD risk assessment in routine practice, with the sample consisting of 126,519 individuals risk assessed between 1 January 2007 and 30 June 2014. AusHeart is a cluster-stratified survey of primary care CVD management that enrolled 534 GPs from across Australia, who in turn recruited 1381 patients between 1 April and 30 June 2008. Eligibility was restricted to 55-74year old patients without prior CVD. The CART analyses demonstrated that New Zealand GPs prescribe statins primarily on the basis of absolute risk, while their Australian counterparts are influenced by a variety of individual risk factors, including total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol and diabetes. Countries seeking to improve their management of CVD should consider adopting a 'whole of system' absolute risk-based approach with clear guidelines that are consistent with drug reimbursement rules; and include computerized decision-support tools that aid decision-making and allow monitoring of outcomes and continual improvement of practice. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Absolute value of bioelectrical impedance analysis-measured visceral fat area with obesity-related cardiovascular risk factors in Japanese workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okauchi, Yukiyoshi; Kishida, Ken; Funahashi, Tohru; Noguchi, Midori; Ogawa, Tomoko; Ryo, Miwa; Okita, Kohei; Iwahashi, Hiromi; Imagawa, Akihisa; Nakamura, Tadashi; Matsuzawa, Yuji; Shimomura, Iichiro

    2010-12-26

    The accumulation of Visceral fat is known to precede metabolic disorders and atherosclerosis. This study aimed to determine the relationships between body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), estimated visceral fat area (eVFA) measured by bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA), and obesity-related cardiovascular risk factors. The study population was 2,870 middle-aged Japanese employees (males/females=2,322/ 548), who had undergone a health check-up. In the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the cutoff levels yielding maximal sensitivity plus specificity for predicting the prevalence of ≥ 2 risks were, 24.5 kg/m(2) for BMI, 84.6 cm for WC, and 111 cm(2) for eVFA in males, and 23.6 kg/m(2), 81.5 cm, and 67 cm(2) in females. The average number of risk factors was over 1.0 in those with a BMI ≥ 25 kg/m(2) and with a WC ≥ 85 cm for males, ≥ 28 kg/m(2) and ≥ 95 cm respectively for females, and those with an eVFA ≥ 100 cm(2) for both males and females. In males, it was around 1.0 with cutoff levels of BMI, WC, and eVFA from the ROC curve. However, in females, it was around 0.6, because the prevalence of subjects with obesity and multiple risks was very low. These results suggested that the cutoff level for visceral fat reduction should be set based on an absolute value of risk factors, rather than a calculated value. In regular health check-up, it may be useful to set an absolute cutoff value for eVFA at 100 cm(2) as criteria to screen for multiple obesity-related cardiovascular risk factors.

  4. The absolute risk of venous thrombosis after air travel: a cohort study of 8,755 employees of international organisations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saskia Kuipers

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The risk of venous thrombosis is approximately 2- to 4-fold increased after air travel, but the absolute risk is unknown. The objective of this study was to assess the absolute risk of venous thrombosis after air travel. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a cohort study among employees of large international companies and organisations, who were followed between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2005. The occurrence of symptomatic venous thrombosis was linked to exposure to air travel, as assessed by travel records provided by the companies and organisations. A long-haul flight was defined as a flight of at least 4 h and participants were considered exposed for a postflight period of 8 wk. A total of 8,755 employees were followed during a total follow-up time of 38,910 person-years (PY. The total time employees were exposed to a long-haul flight was 6,872 PY. In the follow-up period, 53 thromboses occurred, 22 of which within 8 wk of a long-haul flight, yielding an incidence rate of 3.2/1,000 PY, as compared to 1.0/1,000 PY in individuals not exposed to air travel (incidence rate ratio 3.2, 95% confidence interval 1.8-5.6. This rate was equivalent to a risk of one event per 4,656 long-haul flights. The risk increased with exposure to more flights within a short time frame and with increasing duration of flights. The incidence was highest in the first 2 wk after travel and gradually decreased to baseline after 8 wk. The risk was particularly high in employees under age 30 y, women who used oral contraceptives, and individuals who were particularly short, tall, or overweight. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of symptomatic venous thrombosis after air travel is moderately increased on average, and rises with increasing exposure and in high-risk groups.

  5. Absolute risk of suicide after first hospital contact in mental disorder

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nordentoft, Merete; Mortensen, Preben Bo; Pedersen, Carsten Bøcker

    2011-01-01

    Estimates of lifetime risk of suicide in mental disorders were based on selected samples with incomplete follow-up.......Estimates of lifetime risk of suicide in mental disorders were based on selected samples with incomplete follow-up....

  6. Forging process design for risk reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Yongning

    In this dissertation, forging process design has been investigated with the primary concern on risk reduction. Different forged components have been studied, especially those ones that could cause catastrophic loss if failure occurs. As an effective modeling methodology, finite element analysis is applied extensively in this work. Three examples, titanium compressor disk, superalloy turbine disk, and titanium hip prosthesis, have been discussed to demonstrate this approach. Discrete defects such as hard alpha anomalies are known to cause disastrous failure if they are present in those stress critical components. In this research, hard-alpha inclusion movement during forging of titanium compressor disk is studied by finite element analysis. By combining the results from Finite Element Method (FEM), regression modeling and Monte Carlo simulation, it is shown that changing the forging path is able to mitigate the failure risk of the components during the service. The second example goes with a turbine disk made of superalloy IN 718. The effect of forging on microstructure is the main consideration in this study. Microstructure defines the as-forged disk properties. Considering specific forging conditions, preform has its own effect on the microstructure. Through a sensitivity study it is found that forging temperature and speed have significant influence on the microstructure. In order to choose the processing parameters to optimize the microstructure, the dependence of microstructure on die speed and temperature is thoroughly studied using design of numerical experiments. For various desired goals, optimal solutions are determined. The narrow processing window of titanium alloy makes the isothermal forging a preferred way to produce forged parts without forging defects. However, the cost of isothermal forging (dies at the same temperature as the workpiece) limits its wide application. In this research, it has been demonstrated that with proper process design, the die

  7. Disaster Risks Reduction for Extreme Natural Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plag, H.; Jules-Plag, S.

    2013-12-01

    Mega disasters associated with extreme natural hazards have the potential to escalate the global sustainability crisis and put us close to the boundaries of the safe operating space for humanity. Floods and droughts are major threats that potentially could reach planetary extent, particularly through secondary economic and social impacts. Earthquakes and tsunamis frequently cause disasters that eventually could exceed the immediate coping capacity of the global economy, particularly since we have built mega cities in hazardous areas that are now ready to be harvested by natural hazards. Unfortunately, the more we learn to cope with the relatively frequent hazards (50 to 100 years events), the less we are worried about the low-probability, high-impact events (a few hundred and more years events). As a consequence, threats from the 500 years flood, drought, volcano eruption are not appropriately accounted for in disaster risk reduction (DRR) discussions. Extreme geohazards have occurred regularly throughout the past, but mostly did not cause major disasters because exposure of human assets to hazards was much lower in the past. The most extreme events that occurred during the last 2,000 years would today cause unparalleled damage on a global scale and could worsen the sustainability crisis. Simulation of these extreme hazards under present conditions can help to assess the disaster risk. Recent extreme earthquakes have illustrated the destruction they can inflict, both directly and indirectly through tsunamis. Large volcano eruptions have the potential to impact climate, anthropogenic infrastructure and resource supplies on global scale. During the last 2,000 years several large volcano eruptions occurred, which under today's conditions are associated with extreme disaster risk. The comparison of earthquakes and volcano eruptions indicates that large volcano eruptions are the low-probability geohazards with potentially the highest impact on our civilization

  8. Merging Cultural Heritage Assessments with Risk Reduction and Disaster Recovery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bojsen, Ann Kristina Mikkelsen

    , disaster risk reduction interventions tend to overlook the importance of incorporating cultural heritage, as an independent and highly valuable component in order to increase the risk reduction. Furthermore, there is a lack of methodological expansion in order to merge disaster assessment and cultural...

  9. Adaptation of an HIV behavioural disinhibition risk reduction ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    South Africa urgently needs HIV behavioural disinhibition risk reduction interventions for recently circumcised men for use in clinic and community settings. A theory-based HIV behavioural disinhibition risk reduction counselling intervention has recently been adapted for use in a South African traditional and medical ...

  10. 76 FR 44301 - Information Collection; Homeowner Risk Reduction Behaviors Concerning Wildfire Risks and Climate...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-07-25

    ... is seeking comments from all interested individuals and organizations on a new, one-time information... wildfire, (2) risk reduction behaviors associated with wildfire, (3) sources of information regarding... DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Forest Service Information Collection; Homeowner Risk Reduction...

  11. Risk Reduction Education: Voices from the Field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamorey, Suzanne

    2010-01-01

    Teens with disabilities need information about risk topics such as addiction, abuse, sex, and delinquency to make healthy choices as they participate in mainstream society. This article presents questionnaire-based information provided by special educators in secondary schools about their efforts, limitations, and needs in providing risk reduction…

  12. Building Capacity for Disaster Risk Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAdoo, B. G.; Bryner, V.

    2013-05-01

    Disaster risk is acutely high in many emerging economies due to a combination of geophysical hazards and social and ecological vulnerabilities. The risk associated with natural hazards can be a critical component of a nation's wealth, hence knowledge of these hazards will affect foreign investment in these emergent economies. On the hazard side of the risk profile, geophysicists research the frequency and magnitude of the extant hazards. These geophysicists, both local and foreign, have a responsibility to communicate these risks in the public sphere - whether they are through the mass media, or in personal conversations. Because of this implicit responsibility, it is incumbent upon geophysicists to understand the overall risk, not just the hazards. When it comes to communicating these risks, local scientists are often more effective because they speak the language, understand the social context, and are often connected to various modes of communication unavailable to foreign researchers. Investment in multidisciplinary undergraduate education is critical, as is training of established local scientists in understanding the complexities of risk assessment as well as communicating these risks effectively to broad audiences. Onagawa, Japan. 2011.

  13. Hierarchical decision making for flood risk reduction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Custer, Rocco; Nishijima, Kazuyoshi

    2013-01-01

    River flood events often cause large economic damages and casualties requiring stakeholders to manage flood risk. In flood prone areas, flood risk management can be achieved through a series hierarchically integrated protection structures, which together form a hierarchical flood protection system...... and compare the benefit of large upstream protection structures and local downstream protection structures in regard to epistemic uncertainty parameters. Results suggest that epistemic uncertainty influences the outcome of the decision model and that, depending on the magnitude of epistemic uncertainty...... the hierarchical level on which risk reducing measures are most beneficial might change....

  14. Semantic Mediation Tool for Risk Reduction Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This project focuses on providing an infrastructure to aid the building of ontologies from existing NASA applications, in a manner that leads to long-term risk...

  15. Mission Risk Reduction Regulatory Change Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scroggins, Sharon

    2007-01-01

    NASA Headquarters Environmental Management Division supports NASA's mission to pioneer the future in space exploration, scientific discovery, and aeronautics research by integrating environmental considerations into programs and projects early-on, thereby proactively reducing NASA's exposure to institutional, programmatic and operational risk. As part of this effort, NASA established the Principal Center for Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication (RRAC PC) as a resource for detecting, analyzing, and communicating environmental regulatory risks to the NASA stakeholder community. The RRAC PC focuses on detecting emerging environmental regulations and other operational change drivers that may pose risks to NASA programs and facilities, and effectively communicating the potential risks. For example, regulatory change may restrict how and where certain activities or operations may be conducted. Regulatory change can also directly affect the ability to use certain materials by mandating a production phase-out or restricting usage applications of certain materials. Regulatory change can result in significant adverse impacts to NASA programs and facilities due to NASA's stringent performance requirements for materials and components related to human-rated space vehicles. Even if a regulation does not directly affect NASA operations, U.S. and international regulations can pose program risks indirectly through requirements levied on manufacturers and vendors of components and materials. For example, manufacturers can change their formulations to comply with new regulatory requirements. Such changes can require time-consuming and costly requalification certification for use in human spaceflight programs. The RRAC PC has implemented a system for proactively managing regulatory change to minimize potential adverse impacts to NASA programs and facilities. This presentation highlights the process utilized by the RRACPC to communicate regulatory change and the associated

  16. Climate change, uncertainty and investment in flood risk reduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pol, van der T.D.

    2015-01-01

    Economic analysis of flood risk management strategies has become more complex due to climate change. This thesis investigates the impact of climate change on investment in flood risk reduction, and applies optimisation methods to support identification of optimal flood risk management strategies.

  17. Toward Risk Reduction for Mobile Service Composition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Shuiguang; Huang, Longtao; Li, Ying; Zhou, Honggeng; Wu, Zhaohui; Cao, Xiongfei; Kataev, Mikhail Yu; Li, Ling

    2016-08-01

    The advances in mobile technologies enable us to consume or even provide services through powerful mobile devices anytime and anywhere. Services running on mobile devices within limited range can be composed to coordinate together through wireless communication technologies and perform complex tasks. However, the mobility of users and devices in mobile environment imposes high risk on the execution of the tasks. This paper targets reducing this risk by constructing a dependable service composition after considering the mobility of both service requesters and providers. It first proposes a risk model and clarifies the risk of mobile service composition; and then proposes a service composition approach by modifying the simulated annealing algorithm. Our objective is to form a service composition by selecting mobile services under the mobility model and to ensure the service composition have the best quality of service and the lowest risk. The experimental results demonstrate that our approach can yield near-optimal solutions and has a nearly linear complexity with respect to a problem size.

  18. [Day clinic, a gateway towards risk reduction].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben Nifla, Viviane; Celli, Philippe; Samba, Hélène; Vincent, Cécile

    2018-01-01

    The addictology day clinic at Fernand-Widal hospital in Paris caters mainly for patients suffering from alcohol dependence. The aim is to consolidate the withdrawal which has taken place, to help reduce risks and harm and to support people waiting for follow-up care. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  19. Efficacy of lifestyle change psychological intervention in coronary risk reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pugliese, Rita; Zanella, Maria Tereza; Blay, Sérgio Luís; Plavinik, Frida; Andrade, Marco Antonio; Galvão, Roberto

    2007-10-01

    To evaluate the efficacy of a program of lifestyle change through psychological intervention, combined with pharmacological therapy, for coronary risk reduction in uncontrolled hypertensive patients with overweight and dyslipidemia over 11 months of follow-up. A randomized controlled trial with 74 patients assigned to three different treatment programs. One group (CT) only received conventional pharmacological treatment. Another group (OG) received pharmacological treatment and participated in a guidance program to control cardiovascular risk factors. A third group (LSPI) received pharmacological treatment and participated in a brief psychological intervention program for reduction of estresse levels and changing of eating behavior. The main measure was the Framingham risk index. CT patients presented an average reduction of 18% (p = 0.001) in coronary risk; OG patients elevated the risk by 0.8% (NS) and the LSPI group showed an average reduction of 27% on the Framingham risk index (p = 0.001). Pharmacological treatment combined with psychological intervention for reduction of estresse level and changing of eating behavior resulted in additional benefits in coronary risk reduction.

  20. Cancer Risks in Aluminum Reduction Plant Workers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Labrèche, France

    2014-01-01

    Objective and Methods: This review examines epidemiological evidence relating to cancers in the primary aluminum industry where most of what is known relates to Söderberg operations or to mixed Söderberg/prebake operations. Results and Conclusions: Increased lung and bladder cancer risks have been reported in Söderberg workers from several countries, but not in all. After adjustment for smoking, these cancer risks still increase with cumulative exposure to benzo(a)pyrene, used as an index of coal tar pitch volatiles exposure. Limited evidence has been gathered in several cohorts for an increased risk of tumors at other sites, including stomach, pancreas, rectum/rectosigmoid junction, larynx, buccal cavity/pharynx, kidney, brain/nervous system, prostate, and lymphatic/hematopoietic tissues (in particular non-Hodgkin lymphoma, Hodgkin disease, and leukemia). Nevertheless, for most of these tumor sites, the relationship with specific exposures has not been demonstrated clearly and further follow-up of workers is warranted. PMID:24806725

  1. A method for determining weights for excess relative risk and excess absolute risk when applied in the calculation of lifetime risk of cancer from radiation exposure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walsh, Linda [Federal Office for Radiation Protection, Department of Radiation Protection and Health, Oberschleissheim (Germany); University of Manchester, The Faculty of Medical and Human Sciences, Manchester (United Kingdom); Schneider, Uwe [University of Zurich, Vetsuisse Faculty, Zurich (Switzerland); Radiotherapy Hirslanden AG, Aarau (Switzerland)

    2013-03-15

    Radiation-related risks of cancer can be transported from one population to another population at risk, for the purpose of calculating lifetime risks from radiation exposure. Transfer via excess relative risks (ERR) or excess absolute risks (EAR) or a mixture of both (i.e., from the life span study (LSS) of Japanese atomic bomb survivors) has been done in the past based on qualitative weighting. Consequently, the values of the weights applied and the method of application of the weights (i.e., as additive or geometric weighted means) have varied both between reports produced at different times by the same regulatory body and also between reports produced at similar times by different regulatory bodies. Since the gender and age patterns are often markedly different between EAR and ERR models, it is useful to have an evidence-based method for determining the relative goodness of fit of such models to the data. This paper identifies a method, using Akaike model weights, which could aid expert judgment and be applied to help to achieve consistency of approach and quantitative evidence-based results in future health risk assessments. The results of applying this method to recent LSS cancer incidence models are that the relative EAR weighting by cancer solid cancer site, on a scale of 0-1, is zero for breast and colon, 0.02 for all solid, 0.03 for lung, 0.08 for liver, 0.15 for thyroid, 0.18 for bladder and 0.93 for stomach. The EAR weighting for female breast cancer increases from 0 to 0.3, if a generally observed change in the trend between female age-specific breast cancer incidence rates and attained age, associated with menopause, is accounted for in the EAR model. Application of this method to preferred models from a study of multi-model inference from many models fitted to the LSS leukemia mortality data, results in an EAR weighting of 0. From these results it can be seen that lifetime risk transfer is most highly weighted by EAR only for stomach cancer. However

  2. Household flood risk reduction in the Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Duží, B.; Vikhrov, Dmytro; Kelman, I.; Stojanov, R.; Jakubínský, J.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 20, č. 4 (2015), s. 499-504 ISSN 1381-2386 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : flood risk reduction * household adaptation * Czech Republic Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 3.085, year: 2015

  3. Household flood risk reduction in the Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Duží, B.; Vikhrov, Dmytro; Kelman, I.; Stojanov, R.; Jakubínský, J.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 20, č. 4 (2015), s. 499-504 ISSN 1381-2386 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : flood risk reduction * household adaptation * Czech Republic Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 3.085, year: 2015

  4. Developments in seismic monitoring for risk reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Celebi, M.

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents recent state-of-the-art developments to obtain displacements and drift ratios for seismic monitoring and damage assessment of buildings. In most cases, decisions on safety of buildings following seismic events are based on visual inspections of the structures. Real-time instrumental measurements using GPS or double integration of accelerations, however, offer a viable alternative. Relevant parameters, such as the type of connections and structural characteristics (including storey geometry), can be estimated to compute drifts corresponding to several pre-selected threshold stages of damage. Drift ratios determined from real-time monitoring can then be compared to these thresholds in order to estimate damage conditions drift ratios. This approach is demonstrated in three steel frame buildings in San Francisco, California. Recently recorded data of strong shaking from these buildings indicate that the monitoring system can be a useful tool in rapid assessment of buildings and other structures following an earthquake. Such systems can also be used for risk monitoring, as a method to assess performance-based design and analysis procedures, for long-term assessment of structural characteristics of a building, and as a possible long-term damage detection tool.

  5. Directly relating reduction energies of gaseous Eu(H2O)n(3+), n = 55-140, to aqueous solution: the absolute SHE potential and real proton solvation energy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald, William A; Leib, Ryan D; Demireva, Maria; O'Brien, Jeremy T; Prell, James S; Williams, Evan R

    2009-09-23

    In solution, half-cell potentials are measured relative to other half-cells resulting in a ladder of thermodynamic values that is anchored to the standard hydrogen electrode (SHE), which is assigned an arbitrary value of exactly 0 V. A new method for measuring the absolute SHE potential is introduced in which reduction energies of Eu(H(2)O)(n)(3+), from n = 55 to 140, are extrapolated as a function of the geometric dependence of the cluster reduction energy to infinite size. These measurements make it possible to directly relate absolute reduction energies of these gaseous nanodrops containing Eu(3+) to the absolute reduction enthalpy of this ion in bulk solution. From this value, an absolute SHE potential of +4.11 V and a real proton solvation energy of -269.0 kcal/mol are obtained. The infrared photodissociation spectrum of Eu(H(2)O)(119-124)(3+) indicates that the structure of the surface of the nanodrops is similar to that at the bulk air-water interface and that the hydrogen bonding of interior water molecules is similar to that in aqueous solution. These results suggest that the environment of Eu(3+) in these nanodrops and the surface potential of the nandrops are comparable to those of the condensed phase. This method for obtaining absolute potentials of redox couples has the advantage that no explicit solvation model is required, which eliminates uncertainties associated with these models, making this method potentially more accurate than previous methods.

  6. Absolute Summ

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Alfred, Jr.

    Summ means the entirety of the multiverse. It seems clear, from the inflation theories of A. Guth and others, that the creation of many universes is plausible. We argue that Absolute cosmological ideas, not unlike those of I. Newton, may be consistent with dynamic multiverse creations. As suggested in W. Heisenberg's uncertainty principle, and with the Anthropic Principle defended by S. Hawking, et al., human consciousness, buttressed by findings of neuroscience, may have to be considered in our models. Predictability, as A. Einstein realized with Invariants and General Relativity, may be required for new ideas to be part of physics. We present here a two postulate model geared to an Absolute Summ. The seedbed of this work is part of Akhnaton's philosophy (see S. Freud, Moses and Monotheism). Most important, however, is that the structure of human consciousness, manifest in Kenya's Rift Valley 200,000 years ago as Homo sapiens, who were the culmination of the six million year co-creation process of Hominins and Nature in Africa, allows us to do the physics that we do. .

  7. Comparing fracture absolute risk assessment (FARA) tools: an osteoporosis clinical informatics tool to improve identification and care of men at high risk of first fracture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    LaFleur, Joanne; Steenhoek, Chandra L; Horne, Julie; Meier, Joy; Nebeker, Jonathan R; Mambourg, Scott; Swislocki, Arthur; Carmichael, Jannet

    2015-05-01

    Fracture absolute risk assessment (FARA) is recommended for guiding osteoporosis treatment decisions in males. The best strategy for applying FARA in the clinic setting is not known. We compared 2 FARA tools for use with electronic health records (EHRs) to determine which would more accurately identify patients known to be high risk for fracture. Tools evaluated were an adaptation of the World Health Organization's Fracture Risk Assessment Tool used with electronic data (eFRAX) and the Veterans Affairs (VA)-based tool, VA-FARA. We compared accuracies of VA-FARA and eFRAX for correctly classifying male veterans who fractured and who were seen in the VA's Sierra Pacific Network in 2002-2013. We then matched those cases to nonfracture controls to compare odds of fracture in patients classified as high risk by either tool. Among 8740 patients, the mean (SD) age was 67.0 (11.1) years. Based on risk factors present in the EHR, VA-FARA correctly classified 40.1% of fracture patients as high risk (33.0% and 34.6% for hip and any major fracture, respectively); eFRAX classified 17.4% correctly (17.4% for hip and 0.2% for any major fracture). Compared with non-high-risk patients, those classified as high risk by VA-FARA were 35% more likely to fracture (95% CI = 23%-47%; P tools based on VA-FARA may improve early identification and care of men at risk. © The Author(s) 2015.

  8. Existential risks: exploring a robust risk reduction strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jebari, Karim

    2015-06-01

    A small but growing number of studies have aimed to understand, assess and reduce existential risks, or risks that threaten the continued existence of mankind. However, most attention has been focused on known and tangible risks. This paper proposes a heuristic for reducing the risk of black swan extinction events. These events are, as the name suggests, stochastic and unforeseen when they happen. Decision theory based on a fixed model of possible outcomes cannot properly deal with this kind of event. Neither can probabilistic risk analysis. This paper will argue that the approach that is referred to as engineering safety could be applied to reducing the risk from black swan extinction events. It will also propose a conceptual sketch of how such a strategy may be implemented: isolated, self-sufficient, and continuously manned underground refuges. Some characteristics of such refuges are also described, in particular the psychosocial aspects. Furthermore, it is argued that this implementation of the engineering safety strategy safety barriers would be effective and plausible and could reduce the risk of an extinction event in a wide range of possible (known and unknown) scenarios. Considering the staggering opportunity cost of an existential catastrophe, such strategies ought to be explored more vigorously.

  9. Communication about melanoma and risk reduction after melanoma diagnosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez, Vivian M; Berwick, Marianne; Hay, Jennifer L

    2017-12-01

    Melanoma patients are advised to perform regular risk-reduction practices, including sun protection as well as skin self-examinations (SSEs) and physician-led examinations. Melanoma-specific communication regarding family risk and screening may promote such behaviors. To this end, associations between patients' melanoma-specific communication and risk reduction were examined. Melanoma patients (N = 169) drawn from a population-based cancer registry reported their current risk-reduction practices, perceived risk of future melanoma, and communication with physicians and relatives about melanoma risk and screening. Patients were, on average, 56 years old and 6.7 years' post diagnosis; 51% were male, 93% reported "fair/very fair" skin color, 75% completed at least some college, and 22% reported a family history of melanoma. Patients reported varying levels of regular (always/nearly always) sun protection: sunscreen use (79%), shade seeking (60%), hat use (54%), and long-sleeve shirt use (30%). Only 28% performed thorough SSE regularly, whereas 92% reported undergoing physician-led skin examinations within the past year. Participants who were female, younger, and had a higher perceived risk of future melanoma were more likely to report past communication. In adjusted analyses, communication remained uniquely associated with increased sunscreen use and SSE. Encouraging melanoma patients to have a more active role in discussions concerning melanoma risk and screening with relatives and physicians alike may be a useful strategy to promote 2 key risk-reduction practices post melanoma diagnosis and treatment. Future research is needed to identify additional strategies to improve comprehensive risk reduction in long-term melanoma patients. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  10. Waiting for Disasters: A Risk Reduction Assessment of Technological Disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rovins, Jane; Winningham, Sam

    2010-05-01

    This session provides a risk reduction/mitigation assessment of natural hazards causation of technological disasters and possible solution. People use technology in an attempt to not only control their environment but nature itself in order to make them feel safe and productive. Most strategies for managing hazards followed a traditional planning model i.e. study the problem, identify and implement a solution, and move on to the next problem. This approach is often viewed as static model and risk reduction is more of an upward, positive, linear trend. However, technological disasters do not allow risk reduction action to neatly fit this upward, positive, linear trend with actual or potential threats to the environment and society. There are different types of technological disasters, including industrial accidents; pipeline ruptures; accidents at power, water and heat supply systems and other lines of communication; sudden collapse of buildings and mines; air crashes; shipwrecks; automobile and railway accidents to name a few. Natural factors can play an essential role in triggering or magnifying technological disasters. They can result from the direct destruction of given technical objects by a hazardous natural process such as the destruction of an atomic power plant or chemical plant due to an earthquake. Other examples would include the destruction of communications or infrastructure systems by heavy snowfalls, strong winds, avalanches. Events in the past ten years clearly demonstrate that natural disasters and the technological disasters that accompany them are not problems that can be solved in isolation and risk reduction can play an important part. Risk reduction was designed to head off the continuing rising financial and structural tolls from disasters. All Hazard Risk Reduction planning was supposed to include not only natural, but technological, and human-made disasters as well. The subsequent disaster risk reduction (DRR) indicators were to provide the

  11. Effect of smoking reduction on lung cancer risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Godtfredsen, Nina S; Prescott, Eva; Osler, Merete

    2005-01-01

    Many smokers are unable or unwilling to completely quit smoking. A proposed means of harm reduction is to reduce the number of cigarettes smoked per day. However, it is not clear whether this strategy decreases the risk for tobacco-related diseases.......Many smokers are unable or unwilling to completely quit smoking. A proposed means of harm reduction is to reduce the number of cigarettes smoked per day. However, it is not clear whether this strategy decreases the risk for tobacco-related diseases....

  12. NHS health checks through general practice: randomised trial of population cardiovascular risk reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cochrane Thomas

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The global burden of the major vascular diseases is projected to rise and to remain the dominant non-communicable disease cluster well into the twenty first century. The Department of Health in England has developed the NHS Health Check service as a policy initiative to reduce population vascular disease risk. The aims of this study were to monitor population changes in cardiovascular disease (CVD risk factors over the first year of the new service and to assess the value of tailored lifestyle support, including motivational interview with ongoing support and referral to other services. Methods Randomised trial comparing NHS Health Check service only with NHS Health Check service plus additional lifestyle support in Stoke on Trent, England. Thirty eight general practices and 601 (365 usual care, 236 additional lifestyle support patients were recruited and randomised independently between September 2009 and February 2010. Changes in population CVD risk between baseline and one year follow-up were compared, using intention-to-treat analysis. The primary outcome was the Framingham 10 year CVD risk score. Secondary outcomes included individual modifiable risk measures and prevalence of individual risk categories. Additional lifestyle support included referral to a lifestyle coach and free sessions as needed for: weight management, physical activity, cook and eat and positive thinking. Results Average population CVD risk decreased from 32.9% to 29.4% (p Conclusions The NHS Health Check service in Stoke on Trent resulted in significant reduction in estimated population CVD risk. There was no evidence of further benefit of the additional lifestyle support services in terms of absolute CVD risk reduction.

  13. Development of an HIV risk reduction counselling intervention for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    South Africa urgently needs HIV prevention interventions that can be disseminated for use in clinical and community settings. A brief theory-based HIV risk reduction counselling intervention originally developed in the USA has recently been adapted for use in a South African sexually transmitted infection clinic.

  14. The feasibility of integrating alcohol risk-reduction counseling into ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This pretest-posttest separate-sample study with intervention and comparison groups documented the abilities and willingness of trained voluntary counseling and testing (VCT) service providers to integrate alcohol screening and risk reduction counseling into their routine service delivery. Pre-test (n=1073) and post-test ...

  15. Effect of smoking reduction on lung cancer risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Godtfredsen, Nina S; Prescott, Eva; Osler, Merete

    2005-01-01

    Many smokers are unable or unwilling to completely quit smoking. A proposed means of harm reduction is to reduce the number of cigarettes smoked per day. However, it is not clear whether this strategy decreases the risk for tobacco-related diseases....

  16. Sustainable Disaster Risk Reduction in Nigeria: Lessons for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Nekky Umera

    Sustainable Disaster Risk Reduction in Nigeria: Lessons for Developing Countries. • Views disasters as different from accidents and minor emergencies;. • Views catastrophes as different from disasters;. • Focuses on multiple hazards and is generic rather than agent specific;. • Includes all four time phases of the planning ...

  17. Sexual risk reduction among Zambian couples | Jones | SAHARA-J ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Zambia has over 1 million HIV infections nationwide and an urban prevalence rate of 23%. This study compared the impact of male involvement in multiple and single session risk reduction interventions among inconsistent condom users in Zambia and the role of serostatus among HIV-seropositive and serodiscordant ...

  18. Consideration on risk reduction of future breeder reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vossebrecker, H.

    1990-09-01

    An overall concept of risk minimization of future sodium-cooled fast breeder reactors is presented in this report. Since shutdown reliability is of vital importance for the breeder safety, a so-called third shutdown level is proposed in addition to the two independent fast shutdown systems. It is basically a group of passive and active measures, which are capable to bring the reactor to safe conditions in all conceivable accident-initiating events and in case of total failure of the two actual shutdown systems. Core disruptions as a result of shutdown failure are therefore beyond the scope of technical imagination. Measures are also foreseen to combat other conceivable causes of core disruption, in particular to achieve residual heat removal with essentially passive systems by making use of the good natural circulation capacity of sodium. On top of that, since absolute safety can never be claimed, damage-limiting containment measures are discussed

  19. Risk acceptance criterion for tanker oil spill risk reduction measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Psarros, George; Skjong, Rolf; Vanem, Erik

    2011-01-01

    This paper is aimed at investigating whether there is ample support for the view that the acceptance criterion for evaluating measures for prevention of oil spills from tankers should be based on cost-effectiveness considerations. One such criterion can be reflected by the Cost of Averting a Tonne of oil Spilt (CATS) whereas its target value is updated by elaborating the inherent uncertainties of oil spill costs and establishing a value for the criterion's assurance factor. To this end, a value of $80,000/t is proposed as a sensible CATS criterion and the proposed value for the assurance factor F=1.5 is supported by the retrieved Protection and Indemnity (P&I) Clubs' Annual Reports. It is envisaged that this criterion would allow the conversion of direct and indirect costs into a non-market value for the optimal allocation of resources between the various parties investing in shipping. A review of previous cost estimation models on oil spills is presented and a probability distribution (log-normal) is fitted on the available oil spill cost data, where it should be made abundantly clear that the mean value of the distribution is used for deriving the updated CATS criterion value. However, the difference between the initial and the updated CATS criterion in the percentiles of the distribution is small. It is found through the current analysis that results are partly lower than the predicted values from the published estimation models. The costs are also found to depend on the type of accident, which is in agreement with the results of previous studies. Other proposals on acceptance criteria are reviewed and it is asserted that the CATS criterion can be considered as the best candidate. Evidence is provided that the CATS approach is practical and meaningful by including examples of successful applications in actual risk assessments. Finally, it is suggested that the criterion may be refined subject to more readily available cost data and experience gained from future

  20. Directly Relating Reduction Energies of Gaseous Eu(H2O)n3+, n = 55–140, to Aqueous Solution: The Absolute SHE Potential and Real Proton Solvation Energy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald, William A.; Leib, Ryan D.; Demireva, Maria; O’Brien, Jeremy T.; Prell, James S.; Williams, Evan R.

    2010-01-01

    In solution, half-cell potentials are measured relative to other half-cells resulting in a ladder of thermodynamic values that is anchored to the standard hydrogen electrode (SHE), which is assigned an arbitrary value of exactly 0 V. A new method for measuring the absolute SHE potential is introduced in which reduction energies of Eu(H2O)n3+, from n = 55 to 140, are extrapolated as a function of the geometric dependence of the cluster reduction energy to infinite size. These measurements make it possible to directly relate absolute reduction energies of these gaseous nanodrops containing Eu3+ to the absolute reduction enthalpy of this ion in bulk solution. From this value, an absolute SHE potential of +4.11 V and a real proton solvation energy of −269.0 kcal/mol are obtained. The infrared photodissociation spectrum of Eu(H2O)119-1243+ indicates that the structure of the surface of the nanodrops is similar to that at the bulk air–water interface and that the hydrogen bonding of interior water molecules is similar to that in aqueous solution. These results suggest that the environment of Eu3+ in these nanodrops and the surface potential of the nandrops are comparable to those of the condensed phase. This method for obtaining absolute potentials of redox couples has the advantage that no explicit solvation model is required, which eliminates uncertainties associated with these models, making this method potentially more accurate than previous methods. PMID:19711981

  1. Long-Term International Space Station (ISS) Risk Reduction Activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fodroci, M. P.; Gafka, G. K.; Lutomski, M. G.; Maher, J. S.

    2012-01-01

    As the assembly of the ISS nears completion, it is worthwhile to step back and review some of the actions pursued by the Program in recent years to reduce risk and enhance the safety and health of ISS crewmembers, visitors, and space flight participants. While the initial ISS requirements and design were intended to provide the best practicable levels of safety, it is always possible to further reduce risk - given the determination, commitment, and resources to do so. The following is a summary of some of the steps taken by the ISS Program Manager, by our International Partners, by hardware and software designers, by operational specialists, and by safety personnel to continuously enhance the safety of the ISS, and to reduce risk to all crewmembers. While years of work went into the development of ISS requirements, there are many things associated with risk reduction in a Program like the ISS that can only be learned through actual operational experience. These risk reduction activities can be divided into roughly three categories: Areas that were initially noncompliant which have subsequently been brought into compliance or near compliance (i.e., Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris [MMOD] protection, acoustics) Areas where initial design requirements were eventually considered inadequate and were subsequently augmented (i.e., Toxicity Hazard Level- 4 [THL] materials, emergency procedures, emergency equipment, control of drag-throughs) Areas where risks were initially underestimated, and have subsequently been addressed through additional mitigation (i.e., Extravehicular Activity [EVA] sharp edges, plasma shock hazards) Due to the hard work and cooperation of many parties working together across the span of more than a decade, the ISS is now a safer and healthier environment for our crew, in many cases exceeding the risk reduction targets inherent in the intent of the original design. It will provide a safe and stable platform for utilization and discovery for years

  2. Constructing a holistic approach to disaster risk reduction: the significance of focusing on vulnerability reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palliyaguru, Roshani; Amaratunga, Dilanthi; Baldry, David

    2014-01-01

    As a result of the increase in natural disaster losses, policy-makers, practitioners, and members of the research community around the world are seeking effective and efficient means of overcoming or minimising them. Although various theoretical constructs are beneficial to understanding the disaster phenomenon and the means of minimising losses, the disaster risk management process becomes less effective if theory and practice are set apart from one another. Consequently, this paper seeks to establish a relationship between two theoretical constructs, 'disaster risk reduction (DRR)' and 'vulnerability reduction', and to develop a holistic approach to DRR with particular reference to improving its applicability in practical settings. It is based on a literature review and on an overall understanding gained through two case studies of post-disaster infrastructure reconstruction projects in Sri Lanka and three expert interviews in Sri Lanka and the United Kingdom. © 2014 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2014.

  3. Levelized cost-risk reduction prioritization of waste disposal options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilkinson, V.K.; Young, J.M.

    1992-01-01

    The prioritization of solid waste disposal options in terms of reduced risk to workers, the public, and the environment has recently generated considerable governmental and public interest. In this paper we address the development of a methodology to establish priorities for waste disposal options, such as incineration, landfills, long-term storage, waste minimization, etc. The study is one result of an overall project to develop methodologies for Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) of non-reactor nuclear facilities for the US Department of Energy. Option preferences are based on a levelized cost-risk reduction analysis. Option rankings are developed as functions of disposal option cost and timing, relative long- and short-term risks, and possible accident scenarios. We examine the annual costs and risks for each option over a large number of years. Risk, in this paper, is defined in terms of annual fatalities (both prompt and long-term) and environmental restoration costs that might result from either an accidental release or long-term exposure to both plant workers and the public near the site or facility. We use event timing to weigh both costs and risks; near-term costs and risks are discounted less than future expenditures and fatalities. This technique levels the timing of cash flows and benefits by converting future costs and benefits to present value costs and benefits. We give an example Levelized Cost-Benefit Analysis of incinerator location options to demonstrate the methodology and required data

  4. Baseline risk and marginal willingness to pay for health risk reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerking, Shelby; Adamowicz, Wiktor; Dickie, Mark; Veronesi, Marcella

    2017-01-01

    Empirical results presented in this paper suggest that parents' marginal willingness to pay (MWTP) for a reduction in morbidity risk from heart disease is inversely related to baseline risk (i.e., the amount of risk initially faced) both for themselves and for their children. For instance, a 40% reduction from the mean of baseline risk results in an increase in MWTP by 70% or more. Thus, estimates of monetary benefits of public programs to reduce heart disease risk would be understated if the standard practice is followed of evaluating MWTP at initial risk levels and then multiplying this value by the number of cases avoided. Estimates are supported by: (1) unique quantitative information on perceptions of the risk of getting heart disease that allow baseline risk to be defined at an individual level and (2) improved econometric procedures to control for well-known difficulties associated with stated preference data.

  5. Household flood risk reduction in the Czech Republic

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Duží, Barbora; Vikhrov, Dmytro; Kelman, I.; Stojanov, Robert; Jakubínský, Jiří

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 18, č. 8 (2015), s. 1-6 ISSN 1381-2386 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.4.31.0056; GA MŠk(CZ) LD13032; GA MŠk(CZ) LD13033 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : Bečva River Basin * Czech Republic * flood risk reduction * floods * household adaptation * household coping Subject RIV: AO - Sociology, Demography Impact factor: 3.085, year: 2015

  6. Indigenous knowledge for disaster risk reduction: An African perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nnamdi G. Iloka

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Indigenous knowledge is valuable knowledge that has helped local communities all over the world survive for generations. This knowledge originates from the interaction between members of the community and the environment in which they live. Although much has been written about indigenous knowledge, its documentation in the area of disaster risk reduction and climate change in Africa has been very limited. The wealth of this knowledge has not been well-recognised in the disaster risk reduction field, as policy-makers still rely on mitigation strategies based on scientific knowledge. Colonialism and lack of proper documentation of indigenous knowledge are some of the contributing factors to this. Ignoring the importance of understanding adaptive strategies of the local people has led to failed projects. Understanding how local people in Africa have managed to survive and adapt for generations, before the arrival of Western education, may be the key to developing sustainable policies to mitigate future challenges. Literature used in this article, obtained from the books, papers and publications of various experts in the fields of disaster risk reduction, climate change, indigenous knowledge and adaptation, highlight the need for more interest to be shown in indigenous knowledge, especially in the developing country context. This would lead to better strategies which originate from the community level but would aim for overall sustainable development in Africa.

  7. Absolute risk representation in cardiovascular disease prevention: comprehension and preferences of health care consumers and general practitioners involved in a focus group study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryan Rebecca

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Communicating risk is part of primary prevention of coronary heart disease and stroke, collectively referred to as cardiovascular disease (CVD. In Australia, health organisations have promoted an absolute risk approach, thereby raising the question of suitable standardised formats for risk communication. Methods Sixteen formats of risk representation were prepared including statements, icons, graphical formats, alone or in combination, and with variable use of colours. All presented the same risk, i.e., the absolute risk for a 55 year old woman, 16% risk of CVD in five years. Preferences for a five or ten-year timeframe were explored. Australian GPs and consumers were recruited for participation in focus groups, with the data analysed thematically and preferred formats tallied. Results Three focus groups with health consumers and three with GPs were held, involving 19 consumers and 18 GPs. Consumers and GPs had similar views on which formats were more easily comprehended and which conveyed 16% risk as a high risk. A simple summation of preferences resulted in three graphical formats (thermometers, vertical bar chart and one statement format as the top choices. The use of colour to distinguish risk (red, yellow, green and comparative information (age, sex, smoking status were important ingredients. Consumers found formats which combined information helpful, such as colour, effect of changing behaviour on risk, or comparison with a healthy older person. GPs preferred formats that helped them relate the information about risk of CVD to their patients, and could be used to motivate patients to change behaviour. Several formats were reported as confusing, such as a percentage risk with no contextual information, line graphs, and icons, particularly those with larger numbers. Whilst consumers and GPs shared preferences, the use of one format for all situations was not recommended. Overall, people across groups felt that risk

  8. Clinical utility of rosuvastatin and other statins for cardiovascular risk reduction among the elderly

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sydney B Long

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Sydney B Long, Michael J Blaha, Roger S Blumenthal, Erin D MichosJohns Hopkins Ciccarone Center for the Prevention of Heart Disease, Baltimore, MD, USAAbstract: Age is one of the strongest predictors of cardiovascular disease (CVD risk. Treatment with statins can significantly reduce CVD events and mortality in both primary and secondary prevention. Yet despite the high CVD risk among the elderly, there is underutilization of statins in this population (ie, the treatment-risk paradox. Few studies have investigated the use of statins in the elderly, particularly for primary prevention and, as a result, guidelines for treating the elderly are limited. This is likely due to: uncertainties of risk assessment in older individuals where the predictive value of individual risk factors is decreased; the need to balance the benefits of primary prevention with the risks of polypharmacy, health care costs, and adverse medication effects in a population with decreased life expectancy; the complexity of treating patients with many other comorbidities; and increasingly difficult social and economic concerns. As life expectancy increases and the total elderly population grows, these issues become increasingly important. JUPITER (Justification for the Use of statins in Prevention: an Intervention Trial Evaluating Rosuvastatin is the largest primary prevention statin trial to date and enrolled a substantial number of elderly adults. Among the 5695 JUPITER participants ≥70 years of age, the absolute CVD risk reduction associated with rosuvastatin was actually greater than for younger participants. The implications of this JUPITER subanalysis and the broader role of statins among older adults is the subject of this review.Keywords: JUPITER, rosuvastatin, elderly, risk

  9. Evaluating the risk-reduction benefits of wind energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brower, M.C. [Brower & Company, Andover, MA (United States); Bell, K. [Convergence Research, Seattle, WA (United States); Bernow, S.; Duckworth, M. [Tellus Inst., Boston, MA (United States); Spinney P. [Charles River Associates, Boston, MA (United States)

    1996-12-31

    This paper presents preliminary results of a study to evaluate the risk-reduction benefits of wind power for a case study utility system using decision analysis techniques. The costs and risks of two alternative decisions-whether to build a 400 MW gas-fired combined cycle plant or a 1600 MW wind plant in 2003-were compared through computer simulations as fuel prices, environmental regulatory costs, wind and conventional power plant availability, and load growth were allowed to vary. Three different market scenarios were examined: traditional regulation, a short-term power pool, and fixed-price contracts of varying duration. The study concludes that, from the perspective of ratepayers, wind energy provides a net levelized risk-reduction benefit of $3.4 to $7.8/MWh under traditional regulation, and less in the other scenarios. From the perspective of the utility plant owners, wind provides a significant risk benefit in the unregulated market scenarios but none in a regulated market. The methodology and findings should help inform utility resource planning and industry restructuring efforts. 2 figs., 3 tabs.

  10. Assessment of reduction in perception of nuclear risk related to perception of environmental risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boemer, Veronica Araujo; Aquino, Afonso Rodrigues de

    2009-01-01

    This work presents a bibliographic research accomplished to evaluate the matter of reduction in risk perception, on people in general, that nuclear energy can show, for generation of electric power, face to perception of risk associated to environmental questions, as the global warming, from greenhouse effect, addressing the matter to the relevance of public acceptance for the development of new technologies. (author)

  11. Methodology to predict long-term cancer survival from short-term data using Tobacco Cancer Risk and Absolute Cancer Cure models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mould, R F; Lederman, M; Tai, P; Wong, J K M

    2002-01-01

    Three parametric statistical models have been fully validated for cancer of the larynx for the prediction of long-term 15, 20 and 25 year cancer-specific survival fractions when short-term follow-up data was available for just 1-2 years after the end of treatment of the last patient. In all groups of cases the treatment period was only 5 years. Three disease stage groups were studied, T1N0, T2N0 and T3N0. The models are the Standard Lognormal (SLN) first proposed by Boag (1949 J. R. Stat. Soc. Series B 11 15-53) but only ever fully validated for cancer of the cervix, Mould and Boag (1975 Br. J. Cancer 32 529-50), and two new models which have been termed Tobacco Cancer Risk (TCR) and Absolute Cancer Cure (ACC). In each, the frequency distribution of survival times of defined groups of cancer deaths is lognormally distributed: larynx only (SLN), larynx and lung (TCR) and all cancers (ACC). All models each have three unknown parameters but it was possible to estimate a value for the lognormal parameter S a priori. By reduction to two unknown parameters the model stability has been improved. The material used to validate the methodology consisted of case histories of 965 patients, all treated during the period 1944-1968 by Dr Manuel Lederman of the Royal Marsden Hospital, London, with follow-up to 1988. This provided a follow-up range of 20- 44 years and enabled predicted long-term survival fractions to be compared with the actual survival fractions, calculated by the Kaplan and Meier (1958 J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 53 457-82) method. The TCR and ACC models are better than the SLN model and for a maximum short-term follow-up of 6 years, the 20 and 25 year survival fractions could be predicted. Therefore the numbers of follow-up years saved are respectively 14 years and 19 years. Clinical trial results using the TCR and ACC models can thus be analysed much earlier than currently possible. Absolute cure from cancer was also studied, using not only the prediction models which

  12. Directly Relating Reduction Energies of Gaseous Eu(H2O)n3+, n = 55–140, to Aqueous Solution: The Absolute SHE Potential and Real Proton Solvation Energy

    OpenAIRE

    Donald, William A.; Leib, Ryan D.; Demireva, Maria; O’Brien, Jeremy T.; Prell, James S.; Williams, Evan R.

    2009-01-01

    In solution, half-cell potentials are measured relative to other half-cells resulting in a ladder of thermodynamic values that is anchored to the standard hydrogen electrode (SHE), which is assigned an arbitrary value of exactly 0 V. A new method for measuring the absolute SHE potential is introduced in which reduction energies of Eu(H2O)n3+, from n = 55 to 140, are extrapolated as a function of the geometric dependence of the cluster reduction energy to infinite size. These measurements make...

  13. Incentivising flood risk adaptation through risk based insurance premiums : Trade-offs between affordability and risk reduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hudson, Paul F.; Botzen, W.J.W.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/297620584; Feyen, L.; Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H.

    2016-01-01

    The financial incentives offered by the risk-based pricing of insurance can stimulate policyholder adaptation to flood risk while potentially conflicting with affordability. We examine the trade-off between risk reduction and affordability in a model of public-private flood insurance in France and

  14. Earth observation for disaster risk reduction in Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rafiq, L.

    2012-01-01

    This thesis investigates the role of Earth Observation (EO) for disaster risk reduction for Pakistan. It demonstrates that significant improvements are possible through the utilization of EO data for natural disaster risk reduction activities in Pakistan. In this thesis, a multi hazard approach is proposed in order to identify vulnerability and risk at district level in Pakistan. In particular, a methodology for ranking hazards, vulnerabilities and risks based on Delphi methods is developed. This method is implemented and the results are mapped for four selected hazards i.e., earthquakes, floods, cyclones and droughts. Based on the final risk rankings, the potential of EO is explored with a focus on vulnerability assessment through detailed analysis of two case studies i.e.; Flood and Cyclone/Tsunami. The study also reviews and evaluates the institutional framework of the National Disaster Management Authority of Pakistan in order to identify existing gaps and address them in view of modern technology being used globally. Results reveal that these gaps are mainly related to policies, coordination and communication of different stakeholders at the national level. The work also reviews the available Early Warning System (EWS) in Pakistan and particularly its usage during disasters. Within the context of EWS, multi-sensor satellite data have been utilized for the analysis of structure of an Arabian Sea tropical Cyclone. Results of this focal study provide useful information for operational analysis and forecasting as well as for designing disaster mitigation measures. This information may also play a major role in the development of cyclone warning strategies in the future. (author)

  15. Valuing Drinking Water Risk Reductions Using the Contingent Valuation Method: A Methodological Study of Risks from THM and Giardia (1986)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This study develops contingent valuation methods for measuring the benefits of mortality and morbidity drinking water risk reductions. The major effort was devoted to developing and testing a survey instrument to value low-level risk reductions.

  16. Reduction of Systemic Risk by Means of Pigouvian Taxation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zlatić, Vinko; Gabbi, Giampaolo; Abraham, Hrvoje

    2015-01-01

    We analyze the possibility of reduction of systemic risk in financial markets through Pigouvian taxation of financial institutions, which is used to support the rescue fund. We introduce the concept of the cascade risk with a clear operational definition as a subclass and a network related measure of the systemic risk. Using financial networks constructed from real Italian money market data and using realistic parameters, we show that the cascade risk can be substantially reduced by a small rate of taxation and by means of a simple strategy of the money transfer from the rescue fund to interbanking market subjects. Furthermore, we show that while negative effects on the return on investment (ROI) are direct and certain, an overall positive effect on risk adjusted return on investments (ROIRA) is visible. Please note that the taxation is introduced as a monetary/regulatory, not as a _scal measure, as the term could suggest. The rescue fund is implemented in a form of a common reserve fund.

  17. Long-term absolute risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or worse following human papillomavirus infection: role of persistence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjær, Susanne K; Frederiksen, Kirsten; Plum, Christian Edinger Munk

    2010-01-01

    Infection with high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) is the main cause of high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) and cancer. It has been suggested that information about high-risk HPV type-specific infection might make cervical cancer screening more effective. Persistent HPV infection...... could also be a useful screening marker. We estimated the long-term risk of high-grade CIN after one-time detection of high-risk HPV DNA and after persistent infection with individual high-risk HPV types.......Infection with high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) is the main cause of high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) and cancer. It has been suggested that information about high-risk HPV type-specific infection might make cervical cancer screening more effective. Persistent HPV infection...

  18. Increment of absolute neutrophil count in the third trimester and increased risk of small-for-gestational-age birth: Hirakata Risk Associated with Pregnancy Assessment Research (HIRAPAR).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harita, Nobuko; Kariya, Masatoshi; Hayashi, Tomoshige; Sato, Kyoko Kogawa; Nakamura, Kimihiko; Endo, Ginji; Narimoto, Katsuhiko

    2012-09-01

    Small-for-gestational-age (SGA) infants, who have growth restriction, have higher perinatal morbidity and mortality. Excessive inflammatory reaction such as neutrophil activation has been observed in pregnant women whose offspring had restricted fetal growth, but the association between white blood cell (WBC) counts and SGA birth has not yet been assessed. We therefore examined the association of WBC count and its change with the risk of SGA birth. We enrolled 2356 pregnant women who had full-term singleton delivery at a private maternity hospital in Hirakata, Japan. SGA was defined as under the 10th percentile of birthweight for gestational age, baby sex, and mother's parity according to the Japanese neonatal anthropometric charts renewed in 2010. Blood samples were measured in the first and third trimesters. We performed multiple logistic regression analysis to assess associations between total and differential WBC counts and SGA birth. Women with SGA birth tended to have higher total WBC count in the third trimester compared with women who did not have SGA birth. This tendency was not observed for total WBC count in the first trimester. After adjustment for age, height, body mass index at entry, smoking habit, weekly gestational weight gain, and pregnancy-induced hypertension, higher total WBC count in the third trimester was associated with an increased risk of SGA birth. Total WBC count in the first trimester did not show any significant association with SGA birth. The ratio of total WBC count in the third trimester to that in the first trimester was associated with SGA birth; the odds ratio for 1 unit increase was 3.02 (95% CI: 1.54-5.92). Regarding differential WBC counts in the third trimester, neutrophil count but not lymphocyte count was associated positively with SGA birth. Higher total WBC and absolute neutrophil counts in the third trimester were associated with SGA birth. In addition, greater ratio of increase in total WBC counts during pregnancy

  19. JWST Pathfinder Telescope Risk Reduction Cryo Test Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, Gary W.; Scorse, Thomas R.; Spina, John A.; Noel, Darin M.; Havey, Keith A., Jr.; Huguet, Jesse A.; Whitman, Tony L.; Wells, Conrad; Walker, Chanda B.; Lunt, Sharon; hide

    2015-01-01

    In 2014, the Optical Ground Support Equipment was integrated into the large cryo vacuum chamber at Johnson Space Center (JSC) and an initial Chamber Commissioning Test was completed. This insured that the support equipment was ready for the three Pathfinder telescope cryo tests. The Pathfinder telescope which consists of two primary mirror segment assemblies and the secondary mirror was delivered to JSC in February 2015 in support of this critical risk reduction test program prior to the flight hardware. This paper will detail the Chamber Commissioning and first optical test of the JWST Pathfinder telescope.

  20. Disaster risk reduction in developing countries: costs, benefits and institutions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenny, Charles

    2012-10-01

    Some 60,000 people worldwide die annually in natural disasters, mostly due to the collapse of buildings in earthquakes, and primarily in the developing world. This is despite the fact that engineering solutions exist that can eliminate almost completely the risk of such deaths. Why is this? The solutions are expensive and technically demanding, so their cost-benefit ratio often is unfavourable as compared to other interventions. Nonetheless, there are various public disaster risk reduction interventions that are highly cost-effective. That such interventions frequently remain unimplemented or ineffectively executed points to a role for issues of political economy. Building regulations in developing countries appear to have limited impact in many cases, perhaps because of inadequate capacity and corruption. Public construction often is of low quality, perhaps for similar reasons. This suggests the need for approaches that emphasise simple and limited disaster risk regulation covering only the most at-risk structures-and that, preferably, non-experts can monitor-as well as numerous transparency and oversight mechanisms for public construction projects. © 2012 The Author(s). Journal compilation © Overseas Development Institute, 2012.

  1. Resilience and disaster risk reduction: an etymological journey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, D. E.

    2013-11-01

    This paper examines the development over historical time of the meaning and uses of the term resilience. The objective is to deepen our understanding of how the term came to be adopted in disaster risk reduction and resolve some of the conflicts and controversies that have arisen when it has been used. The paper traces the development of resilience through the sciences, humanities, and legal and political spheres. It considers how mechanics passed the word to ecology and psychology, and how from there it was adopted by social research and sustainability science. As other authors have noted, as a concept, resilience involves some potentially serious conflicts or contradictions, for example between stability and dynamism, or between dynamic equilibrium (homeostasis) and evolution. Moreover, although the resilience concept works quite well within the confines of general systems theory, in situations in which a systems formulation inhibits rather than fosters explanation, a different interpretation of the term is warranted. This may be the case for disaster risk reduction, which involves transformation rather than preservation of the "state of the system". The article concludes that the modern conception of resilience derives benefit from a rich history of meanings and applications, but that it is dangerous - or at least potentially disappointing - to read to much into the term as a model and a paradigm.

  2. Disaster Risk Reduction in Agriculture through Geospatial (Big Data Processing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomáš Řezník

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Intensive farming on land represents an increased burden on the environment due to, among other reasons, the usage of agrochemicals. Precision farming can reduce the environmental burden by employing site specific crop management practices which implement advanced geospatial technologies for respecting soil heterogeneity. The objectives of this paper are to present the frontier approaches of geospatial (Big data processing based on satellite and sensor data which both aim at the prevention and mitigation phases of disaster risk reduction in agriculture. Three techniques are presented in order to demonstrate the possibilities of geospatial (Big data collection in agriculture: (1 farm machinery telemetry for providing data about machinery operations on fields through the developed MapLogAgri application; (2 agrometeorological observation in the form of a wireless sensor network together with the SensLog solution for storing, analysing, and publishing sensor data; and (3 remote sensing for monitoring field spatial variability and crop status by means of freely-available high resolution satellite imagery. The benefits of re-using the techniques in disaster risk reduction processes are discussed. The conducted tests demonstrated the transferability of agricultural techniques to crisis/emergency management domains.

  3. Smartphone Delivery of Mobile HIV Risk Reduction Education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karran A. Phillips

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We sought to develop and deploy a video-based smartphone-delivered mobile HIV Risk Reduction (mHIVRR intervention to individuals in an addiction treatment clinic. We developed 3 video modules that consisted of a 10-minute HIVRR video, 11 acceptability questions, and 3 knowledge questions and deployed them as a secondary study within a larger study of ecological momentary and geographical momentary assessments. All 24 individuals who remained in the main study long enough completed the mHIVRR secondary study. All 3 videos met our a priori criteria for acceptability “as is” in the population: they achieved median scores of ≤2.5 on a 5-point Likert scale; ≤20% of the individuals gave them the most negative rating on the scale; a majority of the individuals stated that they would not prefer other formats over video-based smartphone-delivered one (all P<0.05. Additionally, all of our video modules met our a priori criteria for feasibility: ≤20% of data were missing due to participant noncompliance and ≤20% were missing due to technical failure. We concluded that video-based mHIVRR education delivered via smartphone is acceptable, feasible and may increase HIV/STD risk reduction knowledge. Future studies, with pre-intervention assessments of knowledge and random assignment, are needed to confirm these findings.

  4. Risk reduction and TQM: A corporate culture of continuous improvement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nau, D.C.

    1992-01-01

    A company supplying products and services to the nuclear industry that implements a cultural commitment to continuous improvement, in addition to providing higher quality products and services, also represents a significant reduction in operational risk to that industry. The implementation of a culture of total quality management (TQM), initiated by Sorrento Electronics (SE) in 1989, involves total commitment to the basic TQM principles: continuous improvement, people performing the work are the best sources of how to do it better, and employees must be empowered to make the improvements. What this means to the nuclear industry is a significant reduction in operational risk through: (1) products based on simpler, standardized, proven designs with established operational track records, enhancing confidence that they will perform as expected; (2) the highest confidence that products and supporting documentation are delivered with zero defects; (3) critical power plant schedules can be supported through the shortest possible equipment delivery times; (4) highly motivated employees with extremely positive attitudes, working together in cross-functional teams, virtually eliminate the possibility of deliberate product tampering or sabotage

  5. 2nd Generation RLV Risk Reduction Definition Program: Pratt & Whitney Propulsion Risk Reduction Requirements Program (TA-3 & TA-4)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matlock, Steve

    2001-01-01

    This is the final report and addresses all of the work performed on this program. Specifically, it covers vehicle architecture background, definition of six baseline engine cycles, reliability baseline (space shuttle main engine QRAS), and component level reliability/performance/cost for the six baseline cycles, and selection of 3 cycles for further study. This report further addresses technology improvement selection and component level reliability/performance/cost for the three cycles selected for further study, as well as risk reduction plans, and recommendation for future studies.

  6. Landslide risk reduction strategies: an inventory for the Global South

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maes, Jan; Kervyn, Matthieu; Vranken, Liesbet; Dewitte, Olivier; Vanmaercke, Matthias; Mertens, Kewan; Jacobs, Liesbet; Poesen, Jean

    2015-04-01

    Landslides constitute a serious problem globally. Moreover, landslide impact remains underestimated especially in the Global South. It is precisely there where the largest impact is experienced. An overview of measures taken to reduce risk of landslides in the Global South is however still lacking. Because in many countries of the Global South disaster risk reduction (DRR) is at an emerging stage, it is crucial to monitor the ongoing efforts (e.g. discussions on the Post-2015 Framework for DRR). The first objective of this study is to make an inventory of techniques and strategies that are applied to reduce risk from landslides in tropical countries. The second objective is to investigate what are the main bottlenecks for implementation of DRR strategies. In order to achieve these objectives, a review of both scientific and grey literature was conducted, supplemented with expert knowledge. The compilation of recommended and implemented DRR measures from landslide-prone tropical countries is based on an adapted classification proposed by the SafeLand project. According to Vaciago (2013), landslide risk can be reduced by either reducing the hazard, the vulnerability, the number or value of elements at risk or by sharing the residual risk. In addition, these measures can be combined with education and/or awareness raising and are influenced by governance structures and cultural beliefs. Global landslide datasets have been used to identify landslide-prone countries, augmented with region-specific datasets. Countries located in the tropics were selected in order to include landslide-prone countries with a different Human Development Index (HDI) but with a similar climate. Preliminary results support the statement made by Anderson (2013) that although the importance of shifting from post-disaster emergency actions to pre-disaster mitigation is acknowledged, in practice this paradigm shift seems rather limited. It is expected that this is especially the case in countries

  7. Risk avoidance versus risk reduction: a framework and segmentation profile for understanding adolescent sexual activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopkins, Christopher D; Tanner, John F; Raymond, Mary Anne

    2004-01-01

    The teen birthrate in the United States is twice that of other industrialized nations. Adolescents in the U.S. are among high-risk groups for HIV/AIDS and other sexually transmitted diseases. As a result, the Department of Health and Human Services changed its policy on the promotion of abstinence to teenagers from a focus on a risk reduction strategy to a focus on a risk avoidance strategy. In order to create more effective risk avoidance as well as risk reduction campaigns, this study proposes a framework to illustrate the distinction that teens make between spontaneous sexual activity and planned sexual activity, as well as those teens that make a commitment to abstinence versus abstinence by default. Furthermore, this study classifies teens into three behavior segments (abstemious, promiscuous and monogamous) and then assesses specific differences that exist within these groups relative to their attitudes and perceptions concerning abstinence, sexual activity, contraception, fear and norms. This change in focus from a risk reduction to a risk avoidance strategy has important implications for social marketing, public policy and marketing theory.

  8. Optimal Risk Reduction in the Railway Industry by Using Dynamic Programming

    OpenAIRE

    Michael Todinov; Eberechi Weli

    2013-01-01

    The paper suggests for the first time the use of dynamic programming techniques for optimal risk reduction in the railway industry. It is shown that by using the concept ‘amount of removed risk by a risk reduction option’, the problem related to optimal allocation of a fixed budget to achieve a maximum risk reduction in the railway industry can be reduced to an optimisation problem from dynamic programming. For n risk reduction options and size of the available risk reduction budget B (expres...

  9. Effect of smoking reduction and cessation on cardiovascular risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eliasson, B; Hjalmarson, A; Kruse, E; Landfeldt, B; Westin A

    2001-08-01

    This open study examined the effect of smoking reduction and smoking cessation on established cardiovascular risk factors. Fifty-eight healthy adult smokers (smoking >or=15 cigarettes/day for at least 3 years) were provided with nicotine nasal spray (to be used ad libitum) and asked to stop smoking. The primary goal during the first 8 weeks, however, was to reduce their daily smoking by at least 50%. Subjects were then followed for another 8 weeks; at this point, 33 participants had successfully stopped smoking. Cardiovascular risk factors including fibrinogen, hemoglobin, hematocrit, triglycerides, and cholesterol were measured at baseline and at 9 and 17 weeks. After 8 weeks of smoking reduction, the mean number of cigarettes smoked per day had decreased from 21.5 +/- 0.6 (baseline) to 10.8 +/- 0.6 (p < 0.001). This was accompanied by significant improvements in fibrinogen (from 2.9 +/- 0.1 g/l at baseline to 2.6 +/- 0.1 g/l, p = 0.011), white blood cells (from 7.0 +/- 0.4 to 6.2 +/- 0.3 x 10(9)/l, p = 0.005) and the high-density/low-density lipoprotein (HDL/LDL) ratio (0.33 +/- 0.03 to 0.37 +/- 0.03, p < 0.005). Following 8 weeks of abstinence from smoking, the mean white blood cell count was further reduced (to 6.1 +/- 0.3 x 10(9)/l, p = 0.026 vs. baseline) and there were also significant improvements in HDL (from 1.16 +/- 0.06 mmol/l at baseline to 1.32 +/- 0.06, p < 0.001) and LDL (from 3.78 +/- 0.16 mmol/l at baseline to 3.52 +/- 0.17, p = 0.015). In conclusion, 8 weeks of smoking reduction resulted in clinically significant improvements in established cardiovascular risk factors. These improvements were even greater after an additional period of abstinence from smoking.

  10. Coastal community resilience in climate adaptation and risk reduction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Mie; Sørensen, Carlo Sass

    are combined with community resilience studies to provide the corresponding municipalities with a more elaborate knowledge platform for climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction. Community resilience is investigated in four dimensions (information & communication, community competence, social capital......, and institutional capacity) from +25 semi-structured interviews conducted with local citizens, municipal level employees as well as national government officials. Despite facing the same flood hazards, the two communities have different h istories, social structures, and previous flood experiences and, accordingly......Storm surge impacts on the Limfjord coasts of Denmark are exacerbated by the expansion of the Thyborøn Channel that causes increased water transport into the fjord from the North Sea. This, in combination with sea level rise, jeopardizes the strength of existing flood protection and challenges...

  11. METHODOLOGY OF SYSTEM APPROACHE TO SEISMIC RISK ASSESSMENT AND REDUCTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. D. Abakarov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract. Ensuring of urban areas seismic safety is a task which do not require delay. But it cannot be solved by separate parts. It is essential that all components of the seismic hazard must be grouped together in one problem based on the system approach. In the present paper is presented not only the main flowchart of systems approach to ensuring the territory seismic safety but also the flowcharts of components of each main unit. They cover the whole package of measures for a full assessment of territory seismic hazard, seismic risk and its reduction.The proposed methodology can be carried out for design and implementation of regional territory seismic safety programs. 

  12. Risk reduction and the privatization option: First principles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bjornstad, D.J.; Jones, D.W.; Russell, M. [Joint Inst. for Energy and Environment, Knoxville, TN (United States); Cummings, R.C.; Valdez, G. [Georgia State Univ., Atlanta, GA (United States); Duemmer, C.L. [Hull, Duemmer and Garland (United States)

    1997-06-25

    The Department of Energy`s Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM) faces a challenging mission. To increase efficiency, EM is undertaking a number of highly innovative initiatives--two of which are of particular importance to the present study. One is the 2006 Plan, a planning and budgeting process that seeks to convert the clean-up program from a temporally and fiscally open-ended endeavor to a strictly bounded one, with firm commitments over a decade-long horizon. The second is a major overhauling of the management and contracting practices that define the relationship between the Department and the private sector, aimed at cost reduction by increasing firms` responsibilities and profit opportunities and reducing DOE`s direct participation in management practices and decisions. The goal of this paper is to provide an independent perspective on how EM should create new management practices to deal with private sector partners that are motivated by financial incentives. It seeks to ground this perspective in real world concerns--the background of the clean-up effort, the very difficult technical challenges it faces, the very real threats to environment, health and safety that have now been juxtaposed with financial drivers, and the constraints imposed by government`s unique business practices and public responsibilities. The approach is to raise issues through application of first principles. The paper is targeted at the EM policy officer who must implement the joint visions of the 2006 plan and privatization within the context of the tradeoff between terminal risk reduction and interim risk management.

  13. Risk reduction and the privatization option: First principles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bjornstad, D.J.; Jones, D.W.; Russell, M.; Cummings, R.C.; Valdez, G.; Duemmer, C.L.

    1997-01-01

    The Department of Energy's Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM) faces a challenging mission. To increase efficiency, EM is undertaking a number of highly innovative initiatives--two of which are of particular importance to the present study. One is the 2006 Plan, a planning and budgeting process that seeks to convert the clean-up program from a temporally and fiscally open-ended endeavor to a strictly bounded one, with firm commitments over a decade-long horizon. The second is a major overhauling of the management and contracting practices that define the relationship between the Department and the private sector, aimed at cost reduction by increasing firms' responsibilities and profit opportunities and reducing DOE's direct participation in management practices and decisions. The goal of this paper is to provide an independent perspective on how EM should create new management practices to deal with private sector partners that are motivated by financial incentives. It seeks to ground this perspective in real world concerns--the background of the clean-up effort, the very difficult technical challenges it faces, the very real threats to environment, health and safety that have now been juxtaposed with financial drivers, and the constraints imposed by government's unique business practices and public responsibilities. The approach is to raise issues through application of first principles. The paper is targeted at the EM policy officer who must implement the joint visions of the 2006 plan and privatization within the context of the tradeoff between terminal risk reduction and interim risk management

  14. The Good, The Bad and The Ugly: Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Versus Disaster Risk Creation (DRC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, James

    2012-01-01

    In understanding and trying to reduce the risk from disasters, connections are often articulated amongst poverty, vulnerability, risk, and disasters. These are welcome steps, but the approach taken in top-down international documents is rarely to articulate explicitly that vulnerability accrues from a wide variety of dynamic and long-term processes. Neglecting these processes—and failing to explore their links with poverty, risk, and disasters—tends to encourage disaster risk creation. This paper identifies seven examples of on-the-ground realities of long-term vulnerability within two clusters: Endangerment: 1 Environmental degradation. 2 Discrimination. 3 Displacement. Impoverishment: 4 Self-seeking public expenditure. 5 Denial of access to resources. 6 Corruption. 7 Siphoning of public money. Examples are presented as vignettes, many contemporary and many rooted in historical contexts, to demonstrate the extent to which “vulnerability drivers” emanate from greed, the misuse of political and commercial power, mismanagement and incompetence amongst other behaviours. Moving forward to the tackling of disaster risk creation, instead of simply seeking disaster risk reduction, requires detailed investigation into these contemporary and historical realities of the causes of vulnerability. That would support the integration of disaster risk reduction within the many wider contexts that foment and perpetuate vulnerability. PMID:22919564

  15. The Good, The Bad and The Ugly: Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Versus Disaster Risk Creation (DRC).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, James

    2012-06-21

    In understanding and trying to reduce the risk from disasters, connections are often articulated amongst poverty, vulnerability, risk, and disasters. These are welcome steps, but the approach taken in top-down international documents is rarely to articulate explicitly that vulnerability accrues from a wide variety of dynamic and long-term processes. Neglecting these processes-and failing to explore their links with poverty, risk, and disasters-tends to encourage disaster risk creation. This paper identifies seven examples of on-the-ground realities of long-term vulnerability within two clusters: Endangerment: 1 Environmental degradation. 2 Discrimination. 3 Displacement. Impoverishment: 4 Self-seeking public expenditure. 5 Denial of access to resources. 6 Corruption. 7 Siphoning of public money. Examples are presented as vignettes, many contemporary and many rooted in historical contexts, to demonstrate the extent to which "vulnerability drivers" emanate from greed, the misuse of political and commercial power, mismanagement and incompetence amongst other behaviours. Moving forward to the tackling of disaster risk creation, instead of simply seeking disaster risk reduction, requires detailed investigation into these contemporary and historical realities of the causes of vulnerability. That would support the integration of disaster risk reduction within the many wider contexts that foment and perpetuate vulnerability.

  16. Religious narratives and their implications for disaster risk reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGeehan, Kathleen M; Baker, Charlene K

    2017-04-01

    The role of religious factors in the disaster experience has been under-investigated. This is despite evidence of their influence throughout the disaster cycle, including: the way in which the event is interpreted; how the community recovers; and the strategies implemented to reduce future risk. This qualitative study examined the role of faith in the disaster experience of four faith communities in the Hawaiian Islands of the United States. Twenty-six individuals from the Bahá'í, Buddhist, Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LDS), and United Methodist Church communities participated, including 10 faith leaders and 16 laypersons. The results suggest that religious narratives provide a framework for interpretation of, preparedness for, and responses to disasters. Preparedness varied widely across faith communities, with the LDS community reporting greater levels of preparedness than other communities. Recommendations include the development of collaborative efforts between disaster managers and faith leaders to increase preparedness within faith communities, which may facilitate community-wide disaster risk reduction. © 2017 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2017.

  17. Capability for Integrated Systems Risk-Reduction Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mindock, J.; Lumpkins, S.; Shelhamer, M.

    2016-01-01

    NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) is working to increase the likelihoods of human health and performance success during long-duration missions, and subsequent crew long-term health. To achieve these goals, there is a need to develop an integrated understanding of how the complex human physiological-socio-technical mission system behaves in spaceflight. This understanding will allow HRP to provide cross-disciplinary spaceflight countermeasures while minimizing resources such as mass, power, and volume. This understanding will also allow development of tools to assess the state of and enhance the resilience of individual crewmembers, teams, and the integrated mission system. We will discuss a set of risk-reduction questions that has been identified to guide the systems approach necessary to meet these needs. In addition, a framework of factors influencing human health and performance in space, called the Contributing Factor Map (CFM), is being applied as the backbone for incorporating information addressing these questions from sources throughout HRP. Using the common language of the CFM, information from sources such as the Human System Risk Board summaries, Integrated Research Plan, and HRP-funded publications has been combined and visualized in ways that allow insight into cross-disciplinary interconnections in a systematic, standardized fashion. We will show examples of these visualizations. We will also discuss applications of the resulting analysis capability that can inform science portfolio decisions, such as areas in which cross-disciplinary solicitations or countermeasure development will potentially be fruitful.

  18. Therapeutical approach to plasma homocysteine and cardiovascular risk reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcello Ciaccio

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Marcello Ciaccio, Giulia Bivona, Chiara BelliaDepartment of Medical Biotechnologies and Forensic Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Palermo, ItalyAbstract: Homocysteine is a sulfur-containing aminoacid produced during metabolism of methionine. Since 1969 the relationship between altered homocysteine metabolism and both coronary and peripheral atherotrombosis is known; in recent years experimental evidences have shown that elevated plasma levels of homocysteine are associated with an increased risk of atherosclerosis and cardiovascular ischemic events. Several mechanisms by which elevated homocysteine impairs vascular function have been proposed, including impairment of endothelial function, production of reactive oxygen species (ROS and consequent oxidation of low-density lipids. Endothelial function is altered in subjects with hyperhomocysteinemia, and endothelial dysfunction is correlated with plasma levels of homocysteine. Folic acid and B vitamins, required for remethylation of homocysteine to methionine, are the most important dietary determinants of homocysteine and daily supplementation typically lowers plasma homocysteine levels; it is still unclear whether the decreased plasma levels of homocysteine through diet or drugs may be paralleled by a reduction in cardiovascular risk.Keywords: homocysteine, MTHFR, cardiovascular disease, folate, B vitamin

  19. Trialability, observability and risk reduction accelerating individual innovation adoption decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Kathryn J; Eljiz, Kathy; Dadich, Ann; Fitzgerald, Janna-Anneke; Sloan, Terry

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide a retrospective analysis of computer simulation's role in accelerating individual innovation adoption decisions. The process innovation examined is Lean Systems Thinking, and the organizational context is the imaging department of an Australian public hospital. Intrinsic case study methods including observation, interviews with radiology and emergency personnel about scheduling procedures, mapping patient appointment processes and document analysis were used over three years and then complemented with retrospective interviews with key hospital staff. The multiple data sources and methods were combined in a pragmatic and reflexive manner to explore an extreme case that provides potential to act as an instructive template for effective change. Computer simulation of process change ideas offered by staff to improve patient-flow accelerated the adoption of the process changes, largely because animated computer simulation permitted experimentation (trialability), provided observable predictions of change results (observability) and minimized perceived risk. The difficulty of making accurate comparisons between time periods in a health care setting is acknowledged. This work has implications for policy, practice and theory, particularly for inducing the rapid diffusion of process innovations to address challenges facing health service organizations and national health systems. Originality/value - The research demonstrates the value of animated computer simulation in presenting the need for change, identifying options, and predicting change outcomes and is the first work to indicate the importance of trialability, observability and risk reduction in individual adoption decisions in health services.

  20. A comparative study of European insurance schemes for extreme weather risks and incentives for risk reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Ruiter, Marleen; Hudson, Paul; de Ruig, Lars; Kuik, Onno; Botzen, Wouter

    2017-04-01

    This paper provides an analysis of the insurance schemes that cover extreme weather events in twelve different EU countries and the risk reduction incentives offered by these schemes. Economic impacts of extreme weather events in many regions in Europe and elsewhere are on the rise due to climate change and increasing exposure as driven by urban development. In an attempt to manage impacts from extreme weather events, natural disaster insurance schemes can provide incentives for taking measures that limit weather-related risks. Insurance companies can influence public risk management policies and risk-reducing behaviour of policyholders by "rewarding behaviour that reduces risks and potential damages" (Botzen and Van den Bergh, 2008, p. 417). Examples of insurance market systems that directly or indirectly aim to incentivize risk reduction with varying degrees of success are: the U.S. National Flood Insurance Programme; the French Catastrophes Naturelles system; and the U.K. Flood Re program which requires certain levels of protection standards for properties to be insurable. In our analysis, we distinguish between four different disaster types (i.e. coastal and fluvial floods, droughts and storms) and three different sectors (i.e. residential, commercial and agriculture). The selected case studies also provide a wide coverage of different insurance market structures, including public, private and public-private insurance provision, and different methods of coping with extreme loss events, such as re-insurance, governmental aid and catastrophe bonds. The analysis of existing mechanisms for risk reduction incentives provides recommendations about incentivizing adaptive behaviour, in order to assist policy makers and other stakeholders in designing more effective insurance schemes for extreme weather risks.

  1. Risk reduction by combining nature values with flood protection?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Van Loon-Steensma Jantsje M.

    2016-01-01

    foreland into the dike design does not automatically mean that nature values and flood protection are well integrated. Flood protection imposes rather different requirements on the extent and features of marshes than nature conservation and development. Wave damping is most effective with a high and stable marsh, while nature thrives with dynamic processes and differences in elevation. Therefore, only a design that allows natural marsh dynamics and includes different marsh zones could combine nature values with flood protection. In practice, this means a dike design with an uncertain foreland, that offers space for natural processes. The uncertainty in foreland development reduces the possible flood risk reduction. In our paper we describe the critical points of interest concerning risk reduction in this system.

  2. Cost-effectiveness of medical primary prevention strategies to reduce absolute risk of cardiovascular disease in Tanzania: a Markov modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngalesoni, Frida N; Ruhago, George M; Mori, Amani T; Robberstad, Bjarne; Norheim, Ole F

    2016-05-17

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a growing cause of mortality and morbidity in Tanzania, but contextualized evidence on cost-effective medical strategies to prevent it is scarce. We aim to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis of medical interventions for primary prevention of CVD using the World Health Organization's (WHO) absolute risk approach for four risk levels. The cost-effectiveness analysis was performed from a societal perspective using two Markov decision models: CVD risk without diabetes and CVD risk with diabetes. Primary provider and patient costs were estimated using the ingredients approach and step-down methodologies. Epidemiological data and efficacy inputs were derived from systematic reviews and meta-analyses. We used disability- adjusted life years (DALYs) averted as the outcome measure. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to evaluate the robustness of the model results. For CVD low-risk patients without diabetes, medical management is not cost-effective unless willingness to pay (WTP) is higher than US$1327 per DALY averted. For moderate-risk patients, WTP must exceed US$164 per DALY before a combination of angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEI) and diuretic (Diu) becomes cost-effective, while for high-risk and very high-risk patients the thresholds are US$349 (ACEI, calcium channel blocker (CCB) and Diu) and US$498 per DALY (ACEI, CCB, Diu and Aspirin (ASA)) respectively. For patients with CVD risk with diabetes, a combination of sulfonylureas (Sulf), ACEI and CCB for low and moderate risk (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) US$608 and US$115 per DALY respectively), is the most cost-effective, while adding biguanide (Big) to this combination yielded the most favourable ICERs of US$309 and US$350 per DALY for high and very high risk respectively. For the latter, ASA is also part of the combination. Medical preventive cardiology is very cost-effective for all risk levels except low CVD risk. Budget impact analyses and

  3. RISK REDUCTION WITH A FUZZY EXPERT EXPLORATION TOOL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robert S. Balch; Ron Broadhead

    2005-03-01

    Incomplete or sparse data such as geologic or formation characteristics introduce a high level of risk for oil exploration and development projects. ''Expert'' systems developed and used in several disciplines and industries have demonstrated beneficial results when working with sparse data. State-of-the-art expert exploration tools, relying on a database, and computer maps generated by neural networks and user inputs, have been developed through the use of ''fuzzy'' logic, a mathematical treatment of imprecise or non-explicit parameters and values. Oil prospecting risk has been reduced with the use of these properly verified and validated ''Fuzzy Expert Exploration (FEE) Tools.'' Through the course of this project, FEE Tools and supporting software were developed for two producing formations in southeast New Mexico. Tools of this type can be beneficial in many regions of the U.S. by enabling risk reduction in oil and gas prospecting as well as decreased prospecting and development costs. In today's oil industry environment, many smaller exploration companies lack the resources of a pool of expert exploration personnel. Downsizing, volatile oil prices, and scarcity of domestic exploration funds have also affected larger companies, and will, with time, affect the end users of oil industry products in the U.S. as reserves are depleted. The FEE Tools benefit a diverse group in the U.S., allowing a more efficient use of scarce funds, and potentially reducing dependence on foreign oil and providing lower product prices for consumers.

  4. Prediction of absolute risk of fragility fracture at 10 years in a Spanish population: validation of the WHO FRAX ™ tool in Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Solà Sílvia

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Age-related bone loss is asymptomatic, and the morbidity of osteoporosis is secondary to the fractures that occur. Common sites of fracture include the spine, hip, forearm and proximal humerus. Fractures at the hip incur the greatest morbidity and mortality and give rise to the highest direct costs for health services. Their incidence increases exponentially with age. Independently changes in population demography, the age - and sex- specific incidence of osteoporotic fractures appears to be increasing in developing and developed countries. This could mean more than double the expected burden of osteoporotic fractures in the next 50 years. Methods/Design To assess the predictive power of the WHO FRAX™ tool to identify the subjects with the highest absolute risk of fragility fracture at 10 years in a Spanish population, a predictive validation study of the tool will be carried out. For this purpose, the participants recruited by 1999 will be assessed. These were referred to scan-DXA Department from primary healthcare centres, non hospital and hospital consultations. Study population: Patients attended in the national health services integrated into a FRIDEX cohort with at least one Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA measurement and one extensive questionnaire related to fracture risk factors. Measurements: At baseline bone mineral density measurement using DXA, clinical fracture risk factors questionnaire, dietary calcium intake assessment, history of previous fractures, and related drugs. Follow up by telephone interview to know fragility fractures in the 10 years with verification in electronic medical records and also to know the number of falls in the last year. The absolute risk of fracture will be estimated using the FRAX™ tool from the official web site. Discussion Since more than 10 years ago numerous publications have recognised the importance of other risk factors for new osteoporotic fractures in addition to

  5. Earthquake Risk Reduction to Istanbul Natural Gas Distribution Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zulfikar, Can; Kariptas, Cagatay; Biyikoglu, Hikmet; Ozarpa, Cevat

    2017-04-01

    Earthquake Risk Reduction to Istanbul Natural Gas Distribution Network Istanbul Natural Gas Distribution Corporation (IGDAS) is one of the end users of the Istanbul Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) signal. IGDAS, the primary natural gas provider in Istanbul, operates an extensive system 9,867km of gas lines with 750 district regulators and 474,000 service boxes. The natural gas comes to Istanbul city borders with 70bar in 30inch diameter steel pipeline. The gas pressure is reduced to 20bar in RMS stations and distributed to district regulators inside the city. 110 of 750 district regulators are instrumented with strong motion accelerometers in order to cut gas flow during an earthquake event in the case of ground motion parameters exceeds the certain threshold levels. Also, state of-the-art protection systems automatically cut natural gas flow when breaks in the gas pipelines are detected. IGDAS uses a sophisticated SCADA (supervisory control and data acquisition) system to monitor the state-of-health of its pipeline network. This system provides real-time information about quantities related to pipeline monitoring, including input-output pressure, drawing information, positions of station and RTU (remote terminal unit) gates, slum shut mechanism status at 750 district regulator sites. IGDAS Real-time Earthquake Risk Reduction algorithm follows 4 stages as below: 1) Real-time ground motion data transmitted from 110 IGDAS and 110 KOERI (Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute) acceleration stations to the IGDAS Scada Center and KOERI data center. 2) During an earthquake event EEW information is sent from IGDAS Scada Center to the IGDAS stations. 3) Automatic Shut-Off is applied at IGDAS district regulators, and calculated parameters are sent from stations to the IGDAS Scada Center and KOERI. 4) Integrated building and gas pipeline damage maps are prepared immediately after the earthquake event. The today's technology allows to rapidly estimate the

  6. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and dimensionality reduction techniques in quantitative structure retention relationship modeling of retention in hydrophilic interaction liquid chromatography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daghir-Wojtkowiak, Emilia; Wiczling, Paweł; Bocian, Szymon; Kubik, Łukasz; Kośliński, Piotr; Buszewski, Bogusław; Kaliszan, Roman; Markuszewski, Michał Jan

    2015-07-17

    The objective of this study was to model the retention of nucleosides and pterins in hydrophilic interaction liquid chromatography (HILIC) via QSRR-based approach. Two home-made (Amino-P-C18, Amino-P-C10) and one commercial (IAM.PC.DD2) HILIC stationary phases were considered. Logarithm of retention factor at 5% of acetonitrile (logkACN) along with descriptors obtained for 16 nucleosides and 11 pterins were used to develop QSRR models. We used and compared the predictive performance of three regression techniques: partial least square (PLS), the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), and the LASSO followed by stepwise multiple linear regression. The highest predictive squared correlation coefficient (QLOOCV(2)) in PLS analysis was found for Amino-P-C10 (QLOOCV(2)=0.687) and IAM.PC.DD2 (QLOOCV(2)=0.506) and the lowest for IAM.PC.DD2 (QLOOCV(2)=-0.01). Much higher values were obtained for the LASSO model. The QLOOCV(2) equaled 0.9 for Amino-P-C10, 0.66 for IAM.PC.DD2 and 0.59 for Amino-P-C18. The combination of LASSO with stepwise regression provided models with comparable predictive performance as the LASSO, however with possibility of calculating the standard error of estimates. The use of LASSO itself and in combination with classical stepwise regression may offer greater stability of the developed models thanks to more smooth change of coefficients and reduced susceptibility towards chance correlation. Application of QSRR-based approach, along with the computational methods proposed in this work, may offer a useful approach in the modeling of retention of nucleoside and pterin compounds in HILIC. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. A procedure for seismic risk reduction in Campania Region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zuccaro, G.; Palmieri, M.; Cicalese, S.; Grassi, V.; Rauci, M.; Maggio, F.

    2008-01-01

    The Campania Region has set and performed a peculiar procedure in the field of seismic risk reduction. Great attention has been paid to public strategic buildings such as town halls, civil protection buildings and schools. The Ordinance 3274 promulgate in the 2004 by the Italian central authority obliged the owners of strategic buildings to perform seismic analyses within 2008 in order to check the safety of the structures and the adequacy to the use. In the procedure the Campania region, instead of the local authorities, ensure the complete drafting of seismic checks through financial resources of the Italian Government. A regional scientific technical committee has been constituted, composed of scientific experts, academics in seismic engineering. The committee has drawn up guidelines for the processing of seismic analyses. At the same time, the Region has issued a public competition to select technical seismic engineering experts to appoint seismic analysis in accordance with guidelines. The scientific committee has the option of requiring additional documents and studies in order to approve the safety checks elaborated. The Committee is supported by a technical and administrative secretariat composed of a group of expert in seismic engineering. At the moment several seismic safety checks have been completed. The results will be presented in this paper. Moreover, the policy to mitigate the seismic risk, set by Campania region, was to spend the most of the financial resources available on structural strengthening of public strategic buildings rather than in safety checks. A first set of buildings of which the response under seismic action was already known by data and studies of vulnerability previously realised, were selected for immediate retrofitting designs. Secondly, an other set of buildings were identified for structural strengthening. These were selected by using the criteria specified in the Guide Line prepared by the Scientific Committee and based on

  8. Reducing exposure to environmental toxicants before birth: moving from risk perception to risk reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grason, Holly A; Misra, Dawn P

    2009-01-01

    In this study, we considered approaches to reducing maternal exposure to hazardous environmental toxicants, focusing on risk communication to pregnant women and providers, but also considering identification of environmental toxicants in the community and reduction of environmental toxicants. We addressed the following questions: (1) What do pregnant women and their providers know about environmental toxicants and perinatal health? and (2) What policy strategies are needed (should be considered) to move forward in risk reduction in this area? We reviewed the literature on knowledge of pregnant women and providers regarding these issues. While there is limited research on what pregnant women and their providers know about environmental toxicants and perinatal health, there is evidence of reproductive and perinatal toxicity. This article describes a wide range of policy strategies that could be implemented to address environmental toxicants in the context of perinatal health. Effective leadership in this area will likely require collaboration of both environmental health and maternal and child health leaders and organizations.

  9. The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Stephanie L.; Jones, Lucile M.

    2013-01-01

    The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey (CGS), the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

  10. LISA Technology Development and Risk Reduction at NASA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stebbins, Robin T.

    2010-01-01

    The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) is a joint ESA-NASA project to design, build and operate a space-based gravitational wave detector based on a laser interferometer. LISA relies on several technologies that are either new to spaceflight or must perform at levels not previously demonstrated in a spaceflight environment. The ESA-led LISA Pathfinder mission is the main effort to demonstrate LISA technology. NASA also supports complementary ground-based technology development and risk reduction activities. This presentation will report the status of NASA work on micronewton thrusters, the telescope, the optical pointing subsystem and mission formulation. More details on some of these topics will be given in posters. Other talks and posters will describe NASA-supported work on the laser subsystem, the phasemeter, and aspects of the interferometry. Two flight-qualified clusters of four colloid micronewton thrusters, each capable of thrust Levels between 5 and 30 microNewton with a resolution less than 0.l microNewton and a thrust noise less than 0.1 microNewton/vHz (0.001 to 4 Hz), have been integrated onto the LISA Pathfinder spacecraft. The complementary ground-based development focuses on lifetime demonstration. Laboratory verification of failure models and accelerated life tests are just getting started. LISA needs a 40 cm diameter, afocal telescope for beam expansion/reduction that maintains an optical pathlength stability of approximately 1 pm/vHz in an extremely stable thermal environment. A mechanical prototype of a silicon carbide primary-secondary structure has been fabricated for stability testing. Two optical assemblies must point at different distant spacecraft with nanoradian accuracy over approximately 1 degree annual variation in the angle between the distant spacecraft. A candidate piezo-inchworm actuator is being tested in a suitable testbed. In addition to technology development, NASA has carried out several studies in support of the

  11. Relationships among Trust in Messages, Risk Perception, and Risk Reduction Preferences Based upon Avian Influenza in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, David; Fang, Chen-Ling; Tsai, Bi-Kun; Lan, Li-Chi; Hsu, Wen-Shan

    2012-01-01

    Improvements in communications technology enable consumers to receive information through diverse channels. In the case of avian influenza, information repeated by the mass media socially amplifies the consumer awareness of risks. Facing indeterminate risks, consumers may feel anxious and increase their risk perception. When consumers trust the information published by the media, their uncertainty toward avian influenza may decrease. Consumers might take some actions to reduce risk. Therefore, this study focuses on relationships among trust in messages, risk perception and risk reduction preferences. This study administered 525 random samples and consumer survey questionnaires in different city of Taiwan in 2007. Through statistical analysis, the results demonstrate: (1) the higher the trust consumers have in messages about avian influenza, the lower their risk perceptions are; (2) the higher the consumers’ risk perceptions are and, therefore, the higher their desired level of risk reductive, the more likely they are to accept risk reduction strategies; (3) consumer attributes such as age, education level, and marital status correlate with significant differences in risk perception and risk reduction preferences acceptance. Gender has significant differences only in risk reduction preferences and not in risk perception. PMID:23066394

  12. Absolute nuclear material assay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasad, Manoj K [Pleasanton, CA; Snyderman, Neal J [Berkeley, CA; Rowland, Mark S [Alamo, CA

    2010-07-13

    A method of absolute nuclear material assay of an unknown source comprising counting neutrons from the unknown source and providing an absolute nuclear material assay utilizing a model to optimally compare to the measured count distributions. In one embodiment, the step of providing an absolute nuclear material assay comprises utilizing a random sampling of analytically computed fission chain distributions to generate a continuous time-evolving sequence of event-counts by spreading the fission chain distribution in time.

  13. Absolute nuclear material assay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasad, Manoj K [Pleasanton, CA; Snyderman, Neal J [Berkeley, CA; Rowland, Mark S [Alamo, CA

    2012-05-15

    A method of absolute nuclear material assay of an unknown source comprising counting neutrons from the unknown source and providing an absolute nuclear material assay utilizing a model to optimally compare to the measured count distributions. In one embodiment, the step of providing an absolute nuclear material assay comprises utilizing a random sampling of analytically computed fission chain distributions to generate a continuous time-evolving sequence of event-counts by spreading the fission chain distribution in time.

  14. Association between age-related reductions in testosterone and risk of prostate cancer-An analysis of patients' data with prostatic diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Kai; Chen, Xinguang; Bird, Victoria Y; Gerke, Travis A; Manini, Todd M; Prosperi, Mattia

    2017-11-01

    The relationship between serum total testosterone and prostate cancer (PCa) risk is controversial. The hypothesis that faster age-related reduction in testosterone is linked with increased PCa risk remains untested. We conducted our study at a tertiary-level hospital in southeast of the USA, and derived data from the Medical Registry Database of individuals that were diagnosed of any prostate-related disease from 2001 to 2015. Cases were those diagnosed of PCa and had one or more measurements of testosterone prior to PCa diagnosis. Controls were those without PCa and had one or more testosterone measurements. Multivariable logistic regression models for PCa risk of absolute levels (one-time measure and 5-year average) and annual change in testosterone were respectively constructed. Among a total of 1,559 patients, 217 were PCa cases, and neither one-time measure nor 5-year average of testosterone was found to be significantly associated with PCa risk. Among the 379 patients with two or more testosterone measurements, 27 were PCa cases. For every 10 ng/dL increment in annual reduction of testosterone, the risk of PCa would increase by 14% [adjusted odds ratio, 1.14; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.03-1.25]. Compared to patients with a relatively stable testosterone, patients with an annual testosterone reduction of more than 30 ng/dL had 5.03 [95% CI: 1.53, 16.55] fold increase in PCa risk. This implies a faster age-related reduction in, but not absolute level of serum total testosterone as a risk factor for PCa. Further longitudinal studies are needed to confirm this finding. © 2017 UICC.

  15. Building on the links between climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Vincent, K

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction are closely related. Both address the same risks as well as the same objectives when dealing with climate change impacts. This chapter discusses the linkages between these two - especially...

  16. Risk management study for the Hanford Site facilities: Risk reduction cost comparison for the retired Hanford Site facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coles, G.A.; Egge, R.G.; Senger, E.; Shultz, M.W.; Taylor, W.E.

    1994-02-01

    This document provides a cost-comparison evaluation for implementing certain risk-reduction measures and their effect on the overall risk of the 100 and 200 Area retired, surplus facilities. The evaluation is based on conditions that existed at the time the risk evaluation team performed facility investigations, and does not acknowledge risk-reduction measures that occurred soon after risk identification. This evaluation is one part of an overall risk management study for these facilities. The retired facilities investigated for this evaluation are located in the 100 and 200 Areas of the 1450-km 2 Hanford Site. The Hanford Site is a semiarid tract of land in southeastern Washington State. The nearest population center is Richland, Washington, (population 32,000) 30 km southeast of the 200 Area. This cost-comparison evaluation (1) determines relative costs for reducing risk to acceptable levels; (2) compares the cost of reducing risk using different risk-reduction options; and (3) compares the cost of reducing risks at different facilities. The result is an identification of the cost effective risk-reduction measures. Supporting information required to develop costs of the various risk-reduction options also is included

  17. Risk management study for the Hanford Site facilities: Risk reduction cost comparison for the retired Hanford Site facilities. Volume 4

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coles, G.A.; Egge, R.G.; Senger, E.; Shultz, M.W.; Taylor, W.E.

    1994-02-01

    This document provides a cost-comparison evaluation for implementing certain risk-reduction measures and their effect on the overall risk of the 100 and 200 Area retired, surplus facilities. The evaluation is based on conditions that existed at the time the risk evaluation team performed facility investigations, and does not acknowledge risk-reduction measures that occurred soon after risk identification. This evaluation is one part of an overall risk management study for these facilities. The retired facilities investigated for this evaluation are located in the 100 and 200 Areas of the 1450-km{sup 2} Hanford Site. The Hanford Site is a semiarid tract of land in southeastern Washington State. The nearest population center is Richland, Washington, (population 32,000) 30 km southeast of the 200 Area. This cost-comparison evaluation (1) determines relative costs for reducing risk to acceptable levels; (2) compares the cost of reducing risk using different risk-reduction options; and (3) compares the cost of reducing risks at different facilities. The result is an identification of the cost effective risk-reduction measures. Supporting information required to develop costs of the various risk-reduction options also is included.

  18. A practical approach to assess depression risk and to guide risk reduction strategies in later life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida, Osvaldo P; Alfonso, Helman; Pirkis, Jane; Kerse, Ngaire; Sim, Moira; Flicker, Leon; Snowdon, John; Draper, Brian; Byrne, Gerard; Goldney, Robert; Lautenschlager, Nicola T; Stocks, Nigel; Scazufca, Marcia; Huisman, Martijn; Araya, Ricardo; Pfaff, Jon

    2011-03-01

    Many factors have been associated with the onset and maintenance of depressive symptoms in later life, although this knowledge is yet to be translated into significant health gains for the population. This study gathered information about common modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors for depression with the aim of developing a practical probabilistic model of depression that can be used to guide risk reduction strategies. A cross-sectional study was undertaken of 20,677 community-dwelling Australians aged 60 years or over in contact with their general practitioner during the preceding 12 months. Prevalent depression (minor or major) according to the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) assessment was the main outcome of interest. Other measured exposures included self-reported age, gender, education, loss of mother or father before age 15 years, physical or sexual abuse before age 15 years, marital status, financial stress, social support, smoking and alcohol use, physical activity, obesity, diabetes, hypertension, and prevalent cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases and cancer. The mean age of participants was 71.7 ± 7.6 years and 57.9% were women. Depression was present in 1665 (8.0%) of our subjects. Multivariate logistic regression showed depression was independently associated with age older than 75 years, childhood adverse experiences, adverse lifestyle practices (smoking, risk alcohol use, physical inactivity), intermediate health hazards (obesity, diabetes and hypertension), comorbid medical conditions (clinical history of coronary heart disease, stroke, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, emphysema or cancers), and social or financial strain. We stratified the exposures to build a matrix that showed that the probability of depression increased progressively with the accumulation of risk factors, from less than 3% for those with no adverse factors to more than 80% for people reporting the maximum number of risk factors. Our

  19. Cost-effectiveness analysis of risk-reduction measures to reach water safety targets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindhe, Andreas; Rosén, Lars; Norberg, Tommy; Bergstedt, Olof; Pettersson, Thomas J R

    2011-01-01

    Identifying the most suitable risk-reduction measures in drinking water systems requires a thorough analysis of possible alternatives. In addition to the effects on the risk level, also the economic aspects of the risk-reduction alternatives are commonly considered important. Drinking water supplies are complex systems and to avoid sub-optimisation of risk-reduction measures, the entire system from source to tap needs to be considered. There is a lack of methods for quantification of water supply risk reduction in an economic context for entire drinking water systems. The aim of this paper is to present a novel approach for risk assessment in combination with economic analysis to evaluate risk-reduction measures based on a source-to-tap approach. The approach combines a probabilistic and dynamic fault tree method with cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). The developed approach comprises the following main parts: (1) quantification of risk reduction of alternatives using a probabilistic fault tree model of the entire system; (2) combination of the modelling results with CEA; and (3) evaluation of the alternatives with respect to the risk reduction, the probability of not reaching water safety targets and the cost-effectiveness. The fault tree method and CEA enable comparison of risk-reduction measures in the same quantitative unit and consider costs and uncertainties. The approach provides a structured and thorough analysis of risk-reduction measures that facilitates transparency and long-term planning of drinking water systems in order to avoid sub-optimisation of available resources for risk reduction. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. ABSOLUTE NEUTRINO MASSES

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schechter, J.; Shahid, M. N.

    2012-01-01

    We discuss the possibility of using experiments timing the propagation of neutrino beams over large distances to help determine the absolute masses of the three neutrinos.......We discuss the possibility of using experiments timing the propagation of neutrino beams over large distances to help determine the absolute masses of the three neutrinos....

  1. Mitigating fall risk: A community fall reduction program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reinoso, Humberto; McCaffrey, Ruth G; Taylor, David W M

    One fourth of all American's over 65 years of age fall each year. Falls are a common and often devastating event that can pose a serious health risk for older adults. Healthcare providers are often unable to spend the time required to assist older adults with fall risk issues. Without a team approach to fall prevention the system remains focused on fragmented levels of health promotion and risk prevention. The specific aim of this project was to engage older adults from the community in a fall risk assessment program, using the Stopping Elderly Accidents, Deaths & Injuries (STEADI) program, and provide feedback on individual participants' risks that participants could share with their primary care physician. Older adults who attended the risk screening were taking medications that are known to increase falls. They mentioned that their health care providers do not screen for falls and appreciated a community based screening. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Pure meat – public perceptions of risk reduction strategies in meat production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Korzen, Sara Marie; Sandøe, Peter; Lassen, Jesper

    2011-01-01

    of risk reduction strategy in meat production, with the aim of distinguishing between forms of risk reduction in terms of their acceptability. The paper reports the result of a focus-group study. Six focus groups with Danish citizens (N: 5–9) were conducted during May 2006. The design of the groups took...... a bottom-up approach and included elements of meat quality, meat safety and risk reduction strategies. The study shows the dilemma risk reduction presents to members of the public. On the one hand, people want safe meat; on the other, the study showed that with the exception of hygiene practices, people...... generally have an aversion to risk reduction strategies. Some variation was found, however, in the rejection of the strategies. Thus, more acceptable strategies are characterised by a low degree of technological interference, and by being close to the consumer’s experience in everyday life and/or familiar...

  3. HIV-Risk Reduction with Juvenile Offenders on Probation

    OpenAIRE

    Donenberg, Geri R.; Emerson, Erin; Mackesy-Amiti, Mary Ellen; Udell, Wadiya

    2014-01-01

    Youth involved in the juvenile justice system are at elevated risk for HIV as a result of high rates of sexual risk taking, substance use, mental health problems and sexually transmitted infections. Yet few HIV prevention programs exist for young offenders. This pilot study examined change in juvenile offenders’ sexual activity, drug/alcohol use, HIV testing and counseling, and theoretical mediators of risk taking following participation in PHAT Life, an HIV-prevention progr...

  4. Reduction of regulatory risk: a network economic approach

    OpenAIRE

    Knieps, Günter; Weiß, Hans-Jörg

    2007-01-01

    Several definitions of regulatory risk are known from the literature. From the perspective of regulatory reform it is important to differentiate between the impact of a given regulatory scheme on the firm's risk exposure and the risk arising from discretionary behavior of regulatory agencies. Whereas the conse-quences of effective regulation in principle are known and accepted, excessive regulatory discretion may cause a strong need for regulatory reform. Regulatory reform focussing on the re...

  5. Incentivising flood risk adaptation through ris based insurance premiums: trade-offs between affordability and risk reduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hudson, P.G.M.B.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Feyen, L.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

    2016-01-01

    The financial incentives offered by the risk-based pricing of insurance can stimulate policyholder adaptation to flood risk while potentially conflicting with affordability. We examine the trade-off between risk reduction and affordability in a model of public-private flood insurance in France and

  6. Risk reduction by use of a buffer zone

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijnant-Timmerman, S.L.; Wiersma, T.

    2008-01-01

    In situations where chemical industries and residential areas are situated close to each other, the population runs a safety risk associated with the accidental release of toxic gases. TNO has investigated the possibilities to reduce this risk by integrating safety measures in the area between the

  7. Citizen science for hydrological risk reduction and resilience building

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paul, Jonathan D.; Buytaert, Wouter; Allen, Simon; Ballesteros‐Cánovas, Juan A.; Bhusal, Jagat K.; Cieslik, Katarzyna; Clark, Julian; Dugar, Sumit; Hannah, David M.; Stoffel, M.; Dewulf, A.R.P.J.; Dhital, Megh R.; Liu, Wei; Nayaval, Janak Lal; Neupane, Bhanu; Schiller, Arnulf; Smith, P.J.; Supper, Robert

    2017-01-01

    In disaster risk management (DRM), an emerging shift has been noted from broad-scale, top-down assessments toward more participatory, community-based, bottom-up approaches. Arguably, nonscientist local stakeholders have always played an important role in knowledge risk management and resilience

  8. Semantic Mediation Tool for Risk Reduction, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This project focuses on providing an infrastructure to aid the building of ontologies from existing NASA applications, in a manner that leads to long-term risk...

  9. Quantum nonequilibrium equalities with absolute irreversibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funo, Ken; Murashita, Yûto; Ueda, Masahito

    2015-07-01

    We derive quantum nonequilibrium equalities in absolutely irreversible processes. Here by absolute irreversibility we mean that in the backward process the density matrix does not return to the subspace spanned by those eigenvectors that have nonzero weight in the initial density matrix. Since the initial state of a memory and the postmeasurement state of the system are usually restricted to a subspace, absolute irreversibility occurs during the measurement and feedback processes. An additional entropy produced in absolutely irreversible processes needs to be taken into account to derive nonequilibrium equalities. We discuss a model of a feedback control on a qubit system to illustrate the obtained equalities. By introducing N heat baths each composed of a qubit and letting them interact with the system, we show how the entropy reduction via feedback control can be converted into work. An explicit form of extractable work in the presence of absolute irreversibility is given.

  10. Risk reduction of international mining projects by means of investor consortia and diversification of external financing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirchner, C.

    1982-01-01

    Investors and creditors of international mining projects bear specific risks which may be reduced by means of forming investor and financing consortia. Risk is defined for each actor separately. Project risk and investor risk respectively credit risk are useful categories in order to analyze risk reduction. In each case formation of consortia has a positive influence on the economic viability of the project, and thus reduces the project risk. Furthermore, formation of consortia leads to better compliance of the host country of the mining project with the project and financing agreements. Thus, investor and credit risk may be reduced. (orig.) [de

  11. Integrated risk reduction framework to improve railway hazardous materials transportation safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Xiang; Saat, M. Rapik; Barkan, Christopher P.L.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • An integrated framework is developed to optimize risk reduction. • A negative binomial regression model is developed to analyze accident-cause-specific railcar derailment probability. • A Pareto-optimality technique is applied to determine the lowest risk given any level of resource. • A multi-attribute decision model is developed to determine the optimal amount of investment for risk reduction. • The models could aid the government and rail industry in developing cost-efficient risk reduction policy and practice. -- Abstract: Rail transportation plays a critical role to safely and efficiently transport hazardous materials. A number of strategies have been implemented or are being developed to reduce the risk of hazardous materials release from train accidents. Each of these risk reduction strategies has its safety benefit and corresponding implementation cost. However, the cost effectiveness of the integration of different risk reduction strategies is not well understood. Meanwhile, there has been growing interest in the U.S. rail industry and government to best allocate resources for improving hazardous materials transportation safety. This paper presents an optimization model that considers the combination of two types of risk reduction strategies, broken rail prevention and tank car safety design enhancement. A Pareto-optimality technique is used to maximize risk reduction at a given level of investment. The framework presented in this paper can be adapted to address a broader set of risk reduction strategies and is intended to assist decision makers for local, regional and system-wide risk management of rail hazardous materials transportation

  12. NGS Absolute Gravity Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NGS Absolute Gravity data (78 stations) was received in July 1993. Principal gravity parameters include Gravity Value, Uncertainty, and Vertical Gradient. The...

  13. Earthquake consequences and measures for reduction of seismic risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jurukovski, D

    1997-09-01

    Earthquakes are one of the most destructive of all natural disasters. This article discusses the consequences of earthquakes on material property. In addition, measures for the control and reduction of the consequences of earthquakes are described. Emphasis is placed on appropriate preparation by the general population and the need for a rapid and efficient response of governmental agencies. Finally, the experience of the staff of the Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Seismology in minimizing the consequences of earthquakes is described.

  14. Decoherence at absolute zero

    OpenAIRE

    Sinha, Supurna

    2005-01-01

    We present an analytical study of the loss of quantum coherence at absolute zero. Our model consists of a harmonic oscillator coupled to an environment of harmonic oscillators at absolute zero. We find that for an Ohmic bath, the offdiagonal elements of the density matrix in the position representation decay as a power law in time at late times. This slow loss of coherence in the quantum domain is qualitatively different from the exponential decay observed in studies of high temperature envir...

  15. 75 FR 41217 - Federal Housing Administration Risk Management Initiatives: Reduction of Seller Concessions and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-15

    ... Administration Risk Management Initiatives: Reduction of Seller Concessions and New Loan-to-Value and Credit... with lower credit scores, who represent a higher risk of default and mortgage insurance claim. Finally... nationwide scope, FHA provided credit enhancement to protect mortgage lenders from risk of loss, which...

  16. Biodiesel from Specified Risk Material Tallow: An Appraisal of TSE Risks and their Reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baribeau, A.; Bradley, R.; Brown, P.; Goodwin, J.; Kihm, U.; Lotero, E.; O' Connor, D.; Schuppers, M.; Taylor, D.

    2007-03-15

    potential to inactivate TSE infectivity, for example, exposure to strong acids or bases and, depending on the process, exposure to high temperature or purification by chromatography or precipitation. However, the two-phase aqueouslipidic nature of transesterification introduces an element of uncertainty about the effect of these procedures on infectivity. Biodiesel use. Combustion temperatures, even at millisecond exposures, might partially inactivate contaminated biodiesel. But experimental data have so far been limited to saline tissue suspensions of infected tissues and several minute exposure times in static rather than dynamic combustion processes. A substantial body of epidemiological and laboratory evidence indicates that TSE is not transmitted by aerosol inhalation. Overall conclusion. Biodiesel produced from animals infected with TSE poses a negligible risk to animal and public health. This conclusion extends even to the use of SRM as a source of tallow, based on experimental evidence showing that rendered tallow from infected animal tissues does not transmit disease to inoculated susceptible animals. Although infectivity reductions during biodiesel manufacturing steps should therefore be redundant, any such reduction would still be desirable as an added measure of safety. At present, the potential for infectivity reduction through biodiesel manufacturing and combustion can only be estimated from analogy to methods known to inactivate infectivity in saline suspensions of infected tissue. Studies of the actual biodiesel process, using experimentally contaminated input tallow, are recommended as the only means by which a scientifically-based conclusion can be made about the capacity of these processes to reduce or eliminate TSE infectivity.

  17. Treatment options for hypertriglyceridemia: from risk reduction to pancreatitis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berglund, Lars; Brunzell, John D.; Goldberg, Anne C.; Goldberg, Ira J.; Stalenhoef, Anton

    2013-01-01

    While there has been considerable focus on the role and treatment of LDL cholesterol levels, a definitive role of triglycerides in the management of cardiovascular disease has been uncertain. Notably, with increasing triglyceride levels, there is a parallel increase in cholesterol levels carried by triglyceride-rich lipoproteins, which has prompted interest in the use of non-HDL cholesterol levels as a tool guiding interventions. Recent studies have provided evidence for an independent role of triglyceride levels as a cardiovascular risk factor, and recently, an Endocrine Society guideline was published for treatment of hypertriglyceridemia. In contrast to the relative uncertainty regarding triglycerides and cardiovascular disease, a role of very high triglyceride levels as a risk factor for pancreatitis has been well known. The present paper summarizes the underlying evidence for a risk role for triglyceride levels in cardiovascular disease and pancreatitis, current treatment recommendations and areas of future research. PMID:24840268

  18. Evaluating the risk-reduction benefits of wind energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brower, M.C.; Bell, K.; Spinney, P. [and others

    1997-05-01

    The question of uncertainty and risk in electric utility resource planning has received considerable attention in recent years. During the 1980s, many utilities suffered financial losses because of unexpectedly high plant construction costs and low growth in electricity demand. In addition, the introduction of competition to the electric industry is creating new risks for power companies. No longer will utilities be able to count on regulatory protections and a base of captive consumers to provide a stable market and adequate return on their investments. Alternative risk management strategies will have to be considered instead. One approach to managing risk is for a utility company to invest in diverse power sources such as wind power plants. Since wind plants consume no fuel, can be built in relatively small increments with short construction lead times, and generate no pollutants, it is often said that they offer significant protection from risks associated with conventional fossil-fuel power plants. So far there have been few efforts to quantify these benefits, however. The study compares the costs and risks of two competing resource options, a gas-fired combined cycle plant and a wind plant, both utility-owned, through decision analysis. The case study utility is Texas Utilities Electric, a very large investor-owned company serving an area with substantial, high-quality wind resources. The authors chose a specific moment in the future - the year 2003 - when the utility currently plans to build a large fossil-fueled power plant, and examined the implications for the utility`s expected revenues, costs, and profits if a wind plant were to be built instead.

  19. Valuing reductions in environmental risks to children’s health

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gerking, S.D.; Dickie, M.

    2013-01-01

    This article reviews the economics literature dealing with valuation of reduced environmental risks to children’s health. We describe conceptual models together with results from a number of empirical studies. The conceptual models analyze valuation issues from the perspective of parents; treat

  20. Osteoporosis: Implications for Risk Reduction in the College Setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leslie, Maryann; St. Pierre, Richard W.

    1999-01-01

    Examines risk factors for osteoporosis that are especially relevant to the college health setting, focusing on bone development, inadequate calcium and vitamin D intake, cigarette smoking and alcohol use, steroid use and high protein diets, and physical inactivity and excessive exercise. Also presents intervention strategies for college health…

  1. Risk Reduction with a Fuzzy Expert Exploration Tool

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weiss, William W.; Broadhead, Ron; Sung, Andrew

    2000-10-24

    This project developed an Artificial Intelligence system that drew up on a wide variety of information in providing realistic estimates of risk. ''Fuzzy logic,'' a system of integrating large amounts of inexact, incomplete information with modern computational methods derived usable conclusions, were demonstrated as a cost-effective computational technology in many industrial applications.

  2. Quantifying the risk-reduction potential of new Modified Risk Tobacco Products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Florian; Vuillaume, Gregory; Baker, Gizelle; Sponsiello-Wang, Zheng; Ricci, Paolo F; Lüdicke, Frank; Weitkunat, Rolf

    2018-02-01

    Quantitative risk assessment of novel Modified Risk Tobacco Products (MRTP) must rest on indirect measurements that are indicative of disease development prior to epidemiological data becoming available. For this purpose, a Population Health Impact Model (PHIM) has been developed to estimate the reduction in the number of deaths from smoking-related diseases following the introduction of an MRTP. One key parameter of the model, the F-factor, describes the effective dose upon switching from cigarette smoking to using an MRTP. Biomarker data, collected in clinical studies, can be analyzed to estimate the effects of switching to an MRTP as compared to quitting smoking. Based on transparent assumptions, a link function is formulated that translates these effects into the F-factor. The concepts of 'lack of sufficiency' and 'necessity' are introduced, allowing for a parametrization of a family of link functions. These can be uniformly sampled, thus providing different 'scenarios' on how biomarker-based evidence can be translated into the F-factor to inform the PHIM. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Estimating risk reduction required to break even in a health promotion program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozminkowski, Ronald J; Goetzel, Ron Z; Santoro, Jan; Saenz, Betty-Jo; Eley, Christine; Gorsky, Bob

    2004-01-01

    To illustrate a formula to estimate the amount of risk reduction required to break even on a corporate health promotion program. A case study design was implemented. Base year (2001) health risk and medical expenditure data from the company, along with published information on the relationships between employee demographics, health risks, and medical expenditures, were used to forecast demographics, risks, and expenditures for 2002 through 2011 and estimate the required amount of risk reduction. Motorola. 52,124 domestic employees. Demographics included age, gender, race, and job type. Health risks for 2001 were measured via health risk appraisal. Risks were noted as either high or low and related to exercise/eating habits, body weight, blood pressure, blood sugar levels, cholesterol levels, depression, stress, smoking/drinking habits, and seat belt use. Medical claims for 2001 were used to calculate medical expenditures per employee. Assuming a dollar 282 per employee program cost, Motorola employees would need to reduce their lifestyle-related health risks by 1.08% to 1.42% per year to break even on health promotion programming, depending upon the discount rate. Higher or lower program investments would change the risk reduction percentages. Employers can use information from published studies, along with their own data, to estimate the amount of risk reduction required to break even on their health promotion programs.

  4. The social value of mortality risk reduction: VSL versus the social welfare function approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adler, Matthew D; Hammitt, James K; Treich, Nicolas

    2014-05-01

    We examine how different welfarist frameworks evaluate the social value of mortality risk reduction. These frameworks include classical, distributively unweighted cost-benefit analysis--i.e., the "value per statistical life" (VSL) approach-and various social welfare functions (SWFs). The SWFs are either utilitarian or prioritarian, applied to policy choice under risk in either an "ex post" or "ex ante" manner. We examine the conditions on individual utility and on the SWF under which these frameworks display sensitivity to wealth and to baseline risk. Moreover, we discuss whether these frameworks satisfy related properties that have received some attention in the literature, namely equal value of risk reduction, preference for risk equity, and catastrophe aversion. We show that the particular manner in which VSL ranks risk-reduction measures is not necessarily shared by other welfarist frameworks. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Using a relative health indicator (RHI) metric to estimate health risk reductions in drinking water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfredo, Katherine A; Seidel, Chad; Ghosh, Amlan; Roberson, J Alan

    2017-03-01

    When a new drinking water regulation is being developed, the USEPA conducts a health risk reduction and cost analysis to, in part, estimate quantifiable and non-quantifiable cost and benefits of the various regulatory alternatives. Numerous methodologies are available for cumulative risk assessment ranging from primarily qualitative to primarily quantitative. This research developed a summary metric of relative cumulative health impacts resulting from drinking water, the relative health indicator (RHI). An intermediate level of quantification and modeling was chosen, one which retains the concept of an aggregated metric of public health impact and hence allows for comparisons to be made across "cups of water," but avoids the need for development and use of complex models that are beyond the existing state of the science. Using the USEPA Six-Year Review data and available national occurrence surveys of drinking water contaminants, the metric is used to test risk reduction as it pertains to the implementation of the arsenic and uranium maximum contaminant levels and quantify "meaningful" risk reduction. Uranium represented the threshold risk reduction against which national non-compliance risk reduction was compared for arsenic, nitrate, and radium. Arsenic non-compliance is most significant and efforts focused on bringing those non-compliant utilities into compliance with the 10 μg/L maximum contaminant level would meet the threshold for meaningful risk reduction.

  6. Impact of the Prevention Plan on Employee Health Risk Reduction

    OpenAIRE

    Loeppke, Ronald; Edington, Dee W.; Bég, Sami

    2010-01-01

    This study evaluated the impact of The Prevention Plan™ on employee health risks after 1 year of integrated primary prevention (wellness and health promotion) and secondary prevention (biometric and lab screening as well as early detection) interventions. The Prevention Plan is an innovative prevention benefit that provides members with the high-tech/high-touch support and encouragement they need to adopt healthy behaviors. Support services include 24/7 nurse hotlines, one-on-one health coach...

  7. The Effect of Risk Reduction Intervention on Earthquake Disaster Preparedness of the Elderly People

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kian Nourozi

    2016-01-01

    Conclusion: Preparedness programs for disaster risk reduction has a positive effect on the elders’ preparedness. Thus, similar multimodal preparedness programs should be used more frequently for this vulnerable community citizens.

  8. Low-cost risk reduction strategy for small workplaces: how can we spread good practices?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kogi, K

    2006-01-01

    Recent advances in health risk reduction approaches are examined based on inter-country networking experiences. A noteworthy progress is the wider application of low-cost improvements to risk reduction particularly in small enterprises and agriculture in both industrially developing and developed countries. This is helped by the readiness of managers and workers to implement these improvements despite many constraints. Typical improvements include mobile racks, simple workstation changes, screening hazards, better welfare facilities and teamwork arrangements. In view of the complex circumstances of work-related health risks, it is important to know whether a low-cost strategy can advance risk reduction practices effectively and what support measures are necessary. It is confirmed that the strategy can overcome related constraints through its advantages. Main advantages lie in (a) the facilitation of improved practices in multiple technical areas, (b) the strengthening of realistic stepwise risk reduction, and (c) the enhanced multiplier effects through training of local trainers. Action-oriented risk assessment tools, such as action checklists and low-cost improvement guides, can encourage risk-reducing measures adjusted to each local situation. It is suggested to spread the low-cost risk reduction strategy for improving small workplaces in diversified settings with the support of these locally tailored tools.

  9. Brief communication: Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction – success or warning sign for Paris?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Mysiak

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In March 2015, a new international blueprint for disaster risk reduction (DRR was adopted in Sendai, Japan, at the end of the Third UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction (WCDRR, 14–18 March 2015. We review and discuss the agreed commitments and targets, as well as the negotiation leading the Sendai Framework for DRR (SFDRR and discuss briefly its implication for the later UN-led negotiations on sustainable development goals and climate change.

  10. Mount St. Helens Long-Term Sediment Management Plan for Flood Risk Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-01

    downstream from Mount Saint Helens . As part of this effort, an initial study was launched using a 2-dimensional model (MIKE21-C) to evaluate the impact...PROGRESS REPORT Mount St. Helens Long-Term Sediment Management Plan for Flood Risk Reduction Sediment Retention Structure on...SUBTITLE Mount St. Helens Long-Term Sediment Management Plan for Flood Risk Reduction 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER

  11. Selection of risk reduction portfolios under interval-valued probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toppila, Antti; Salo, Ahti

    2017-01-01

    A central problem in risk management is that of identifying the optimal combination (or portfolio) of improvements that enhance the reliability of the system most through reducing failure event probabilities, subject to the availability of resources. This optimal portfolio can be sensitive with regard to epistemic uncertainties about the failure events' probabilities. In this paper, we develop an optimization model to support the allocation of resources to improvements that mitigate risks in coherent systems in which interval-valued probabilities defined by lower and upper bounds are employed to capture epistemic uncertainties. Decision recommendations are based on portfolio dominance: a resource allocation portfolio is dominated if there exists another portfolio that improves system reliability (i) at least as much for all feasible failure probabilities and (ii) strictly more for some feasible probabilities. Based on non-dominated portfolios, recommendations about improvements to implement are derived by inspecting in how many non-dominated portfolios a given improvement is contained. We present an exact method for computing the non-dominated portfolios. We also present an approximate method that simplifies the reliability function using total order interactions so that larger problem instances can be solved with reasonable computational effort. - Highlights: • Reliability allocation under epistemic uncertainty about probabilities. • Comparison of alternatives using dominance. • Computational methods for generating the non-dominated alternatives. • Deriving decision recommendations that are robust with respect to epistemic uncertainty.

  12. Structuring Cooperative Nuclear RIsk Reduction Initiatives with China.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brandt, Larry [Stanford Univ., CA (United States); Reinhardt, Jason Christian [Stanford Univ., CA (United States); Hecker, Siegfried [Stanford Univ., CA (United States)

    2017-03-01

    The Stanford Center for International Security and Cooperation engaged several Chinese nuclear organizations in cooperative research that focused on responses to radiological and nuclear terrorism. The objective was to identify joint research initiatives to reduce the global dangers of such threats and to pursue initial technical collaborations in several high priority areas. Initiatives were identified in three primary research areas: 1) detection and interdiction of smuggled nuclear materials; 2) nuclear forensics; and 3) radiological (“dirty bomb”) threats and countermeasures. Initial work emphasized the application of systems and risk analysis tools, which proved effective in structuring the collaborations. The extensive engagements between national security nuclear experts in China and the U.S. during the research strengthened professional relationships between these important communities.

  13. Flooding risk reduction for the ASCO NPP PSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nos Llorens, V.; Faig Sureda, J.

    1993-01-01

    Developed within the framework of the UTE (INITEC-INYPSA-Empresarios Agrupados), the Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) of the Asco Nuclear Power Plant has served both as a basic tool in reducing the risk of potential internal flooding at the plant, and as a guideline for studying the optimization and feasibility of necessary plant design modifications and changes to procedures. During execution of the work, and in view of the results, a series of improvements were proposed which gave rise to design modification studies. The paper seeks to describe the effect of these modifications on reducing core damage frequency, it also includes a general description of the methodology used. Finally, it compares the results obtained in the context of similar studies performed in other PSAs. (author)

  14. Ethical questions in landslide management and risk reduction in Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taurisano, A.; Lyche, E.; Thakur, V.; Wiig, T.; Øvrelid, K.; Devoli, G.

    2012-04-01

    The loss of lives caused by landslides in Norway is smaller than in other countries due to the low population density in exposed areas. However, annual economic losses from damage to properties and infrastructures are vast. Yet nationally coordinated efforts to manage and reduce landslide and snow avalanche risk are a recent challenge, having started only in the last decade. Since 2009, this has been a task of the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) under the Ministry of Petroleum and Energy. Ongoing work includes collection of landslide data, production of susceptibility and hazard maps, planning of mitigation measures along with monitoring and early warning systems, assistance to areal planning, providing expertise in emergencies and disseminating information to the public. These activities are realized in collaboration with the Norwegian Geological Survey (NGU), the Meteorological Institute, the Road and Railway authorities, universities and private consultant companies. As the total need for risk mitigating initiatives is by far larger than the annual budget, priority assessment is crucial. This brings about a number of ethical questions. 1. Susceptibility maps have been produced for the whole country and provide a first indication of areas with potential landslide or snow avalanche hazard, i.e. areas where special attention and expert assessments are needed before development. Areas where no potential hazard is shown can in practice be developed without further studies, which call for relatively conservative susceptibility maps. However, conservative maps are problematic as they too often increase both cost and duration of building projects beyond the reasonable. 2. Areas where hazard maps or risk mitigation initiatives will be funded are chosen by means of cost-benefits analyses which are often uncertain. How to estimate the benefits if the real probability for damage can only be judged on a very subjective level but not really calculated

  15. A business perspective on environmental risk and cost reduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roper, U.V.

    1998-01-01

    The ways in which the petrochemical industry can enjoy successful business partnerships with environmental service companies was discussed. The petrochemical industry has traditionally viewed environmental service companies as an inherent cost in the context of risk management, and not in the context of business opportunity. Today, as environmental issues are integrated into business operations, there is a new potential for creating business opportunities in a number of operational areas, among them : (1) energy efficiency, (2) process efficiency, (3) waste minimization, (4) waste recycling, and (5) operational pooling. As environmental service companies became more competitive, they have become more attractive business partners. They are providing more diversified services and are better aligned with core competencies required to exploit business opportunities that are too small for major players in the oil,natural gas and petro-chemical industry. They also offer public recognition and financial upside for industry. Some examples of successful business partnerships along these lines are briefly described

  16. Integrated risk reduction framework to improve railway hazardous materials transportation safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiang; Saat, M Rapik; Barkan, Christopher P L

    2013-09-15

    Rail transportation plays a critical role to safely and efficiently transport hazardous materials. A number of strategies have been implemented or are being developed to reduce the risk of hazardous materials release from train accidents. Each of these risk reduction strategies has its safety benefit and corresponding implementation cost. However, the cost effectiveness of the integration of different risk reduction strategies is not well understood. Meanwhile, there has been growing interest in the U.S. rail industry and government to best allocate resources for improving hazardous materials transportation safety. This paper presents an optimization model that considers the combination of two types of risk reduction strategies, broken rail prevention and tank car safety design enhancement. A Pareto-optimality technique is used to maximize risk reduction at a given level of investment. The framework presented in this paper can be adapted to address a broader set of risk reduction strategies and is intended to assist decision makers for local, regional and system-wide risk management of rail hazardous materials transportation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Quantitative Risk reduction estimation Tool For Control Systems, Suggested Approach and Research Needs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miles McQueen; Wayne Boyer; Mark Flynn; Sam Alessi

    2006-03-01

    For the past year we have applied a variety of risk assessment technologies to evaluate the risk to critical infrastructure from cyber attacks on control systems. More recently, we identified the need for a stand alone control system risk reduction estimation tool to provide owners and operators of control systems with a more useable, reliable, and credible method for managing the risks from cyber attack. Risk is defined as the probability of a successful attack times the value of the resulting loss, typically measured in lives and dollars. Qualitative and ad hoc techniques for measuring risk do not provide sufficient support for cost benefit analyses associated with cyber security mitigation actions. To address the need for better quantitative risk reduction models we surveyed previous quantitative risk assessment research; evaluated currently available tools; developed new quantitative techniques [17] [18]; implemented a prototype analysis tool to demonstrate how such a tool might be used; used the prototype to test a variety of underlying risk calculational engines (e.g. attack tree, attack graph); and identified technical and research needs. We concluded that significant gaps still exist and difficult research problems remain for quantitatively assessing the risk to control system components and networks, but that a useable quantitative risk reduction estimation tool is not beyond reach.

  18. 41 CFR 102-80.55 - Are Federal agencies responsible for managing the execution of risk reduction projects?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... execution of risk reduction projects? Yes, Federal agencies must manage the execution of risk reduction projects in buildings they operate. Federal agencies must identify and take appropriate action to eliminate... responsible for managing the execution of risk reduction projects? 102-80.55 Section 102-80.55 Public...

  19. Reduction of livelihood risk for river bank erosion affected villagers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majumder, S. Sen; Fox, D. M.; Chakrabari, S.; Bhandari, G.

    2014-12-01

    Bank erosion process of the Ganga River created a serious livelihood risk for the villagers situated on left bank of the river in Malda district of the State of West Bengal, India since last four decades. Due to the erosion of agriculture land by the river, most of the villagers having agriculture as their only means of livelihood became jobless suddenly. Presently they are living in a miserable condition. One of the main objectives of this paper is to find out an alternative means of livelihood for the victims to improve their miserable socio-economic condition. It has been found from field survey that some erosion affected villagers have started to live and practice agriculture temporarily on the riverine islands (large and stable since thirteen years) as these islands have very fertile soil. If the re-emerged land plots can again be demarcated on the newly formed islands and distributed among the landless people to practice agriculture over there, then it will be a useful alternative livelihood strategy for the victims. The demarcation of re-emerged plots can be achieved by georeferencing the cadastral maps and then overlaying the plots on the present river course. In the present study area geo-referencing process of the cadastral maps became a serious issue as the study area has been very dynamic in terms of land cover and land use. Most of the villages were lost into the river course. Thus the common permanent features, required for geo-referencing, shown in the cadastral maps (surveyed during 1954-1962) were not found in the present satellite images. The second important objective of the present study is to develop a proper methodology for geo-referencing the cadastral maps of this area. The Spatial Adjustment Transformation and Automatic Digitization tools of Arc GIS were used to prepare geo-referenced plot maps. In Projective Transformation method the geometrically corrected block maps having village boundaries were used as source file. Then the

  20. Beyond the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction: Vulnerability Reduction as a Challenge Involving Historical and Traditional Buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentina Pica

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available In observance of the international procedures on disaster risk management, and in particular the Sendai Framework (2015, this research focuses on how more specific procedures related to it can be made effective in the treatment of historic areas worldwide. Disaster risk management is now viewed as being important in the context of historic buildings, as they are strongly related to cultural identity as well as to resilient communities, and can have a large impact on local economies. The study points out that cultural heritage might be the core field of action for capacity building in less vulnerable places, and that its protection is one of the main tasks to attend to in order to achieve the goal of vulnerability reduction. The paper also aims to answer questions such as: which actions could allow better protection of cultural heritage? Is it correct to involve local communities in reconstruction plans by capacity building and self-managed projects? How have reconstruction plans been managed recently worldwide? By further developing the applicability of the priority areas of action of the Sendai Framework, the research illustrates critical points and best practices that will hopefully support disaster risk reduction based on strategic management and remote monitoring, involving technologies and social participation.

  1. Calibration with Absolute Shrinkage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Øjelund, Henrik; Madsen, Henrik; Thyregod, Poul

    2001-01-01

    In this paper, penalized regression using the L-1 norm on the estimated parameters is proposed for chemometric je calibration. The algorithm is of the lasso type, introduced by Tibshirani in 1996 as a linear regression method with bound on the absolute length of the parameters, but a modification...

  2. Approach to Absolute Zero

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 2; Issue 6. Approach to Absolute Zero 0.3 K. to a Few Milli-Kelvin. R Srinivasan. Series Article Volume 2 Issue 6 June 1997 pp 6-14. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link: http://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/reso/002/06/0006-0014 ...

  3. Approach to Absolute Zero

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 2; Issue 2. Approach to Absolute Zero From 4. 22 K. to 0. 3 K. R Srinivasan. Series Article Volume 2 Issue 2 February 1997 pp 8-16. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link: http://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/reso/002/02/0008-0016 ...

  4. Approach to Absolute Zero

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 2; Issue 10. Approach to Absolute Zero Below 10 milli-Kelvin. R Srinivasan. Series Article Volume 2 Issue 10 October 1997 pp 8-16. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link: http://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/reso/002/10/0008-0016 ...

  5. Approach to Absolute Zero

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 2; Issue 10. Approach to Absolute Zero Below 10 milli-Kelvin. R Srinivasan. Series Article Volume 2 Issue 10 October 1997 pp 8-16. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link: https://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/reso/002/10/0008-0016 ...

  6. The critical role of volcano monitoring in risk reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilling, R.I.

    2008-01-01

    Data from volcano-monitoring studies constitute the only scientifically valid basis for short-term forecasts of a future eruption, or of possible changes during an ongoing eruption. Thus, in any effective hazards-mitigation program, a basic strategy in reducing volcano risk is the initiation or augmentation of volcano monitoring at historically active volcanoes and also at geologically young, but presently dormant, volcanoes with potential for reactivation. Beginning with the 1980s, substantial progress in volcano-monitoring techniques and networks - ground-based as well space-based - has been achieved. Although some geochemical monitoring techniques (e.g., remote measurement of volcanic gas emissions) are being increasingly applied and show considerable promise, seismic and geodetic methods to date remain the techniques of choice and are the most widely used. Availability of comprehensive volcano-monitoring data was a decisive factor in the successful scientific and governmental responses to the reawakening of Mount St. Helens (Washington, USA) in 1980 and, more recently, to the powerful explosive eruptions at Mount Pinatubo (Luzon, Philippines) in 1991. However, even with the ever-improving state-ofthe-art in volcano monitoring and predictive capability, the Mount St. Helens and Pinatubo case histories unfortunately still represent the exceptions, rather than the rule, in successfully forecasting the most likely outcome of volcano unrest.

  7. The critical role of volcano monitoring in risk reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. I. Tilling

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Data from volcano-monitoring studies constitute the only scientifically valid basis for short-term forecasts of a future eruption, or of possible changes during an ongoing eruption. Thus, in any effective hazards-mitigation program, a basic strategy in reducing volcano risk is the initiation or augmentation of volcano monitoring at historically active volcanoes and also at geologically young, but presently dormant, volcanoes with potential for reactivation. Beginning with the 1980s, substantial progress in volcano-monitoring techniques and networks – ground-based as well space-based – has been achieved. Although some geochemical monitoring techniques (e.g., remote measurement of volcanic gas emissions are being increasingly applied and show considerable promise, seismic and geodetic methods to date remain the techniques of choice and are the most widely used. Availability of comprehensive volcano-monitoring data was a decisive factor in the successful scientific and governmental responses to the reawakening of Mount St. elens (Washington, USA in 1980 and, more recently, to the powerful explosive eruptions at Mount Pinatubo (Luzon, Philippines in 1991. However, even with the ever-improving state-of-the-art in volcano monitoring and predictive capability, the Mount St. Helens and Pinatubo case histories unfortunately still represent the exceptions, rather than the rule, in successfully forecasting the most likely outcome of volcano unrest.

  8. Social media in disaster risk reduction and crisis management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, David E

    2014-09-01

    This paper reviews the actual and potential use of social media in emergency, disaster and crisis situations. This is a field that has generated intense interest. It is characterised by a burgeoning but small and very recent literature. In the emergencies field, social media (blogs, messaging, sites such as Facebook, wikis and so on) are used in seven different ways: listening to public debate, monitoring situations, extending emergency response and management, crowd-sourcing and collaborative development, creating social cohesion, furthering causes (including charitable donation) and enhancing research. Appreciation of the positive side of social media is balanced by their potential for negative developments, such as disseminating rumours, undermining authority and promoting terrorist acts. This leads to an examination of the ethics of social media usage in crisis situations. Despite some clearly identifiable risks, for example regarding the violation of privacy, it appears that public consensus on ethics will tend to override unscrupulous attempts to subvert the media. Moreover, social media are a robust means of exposing corruption and malpractice. In synthesis, the widespread adoption and use of social media by members of the public throughout the world heralds a new age in which it is imperative that emergency managers adapt their working practices to the challenge and potential of this development. At the same time, they must heed the ethical warnings and ensure that social media are not abused or misused when crises and emergencies occur.

  9. Evaluation of an HIV-risk reduction programme for first-year ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Results indicated that HIV-related knowledge; condom knowledge and risk perception were enhanced by the HIV- related risk reduction programme. However, there is a need for improvement, especially with regard to attitudes towards condoms since some students still had negative attitudes even after the intervention ...

  10. Estimating mortality risk reduction and economic benefits from controlling ozone air pollution

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Committee on Estimating Mortality Risk Reduction Benefits from Decreasing Tropospheric Ozone Exposure

    2008-01-01

    ... in life expectancy, and to assess methods for estimating the monetary value of the reduced risk of premature death and increased life expectancy in the context of health-benefits analysis. Estimating Mortality Risk Reduction and Economic Benefits from Controlling Ozone Air Pollution details the committee's findings and posits several recommendations to address these issues.

  11. Cost-effectiveness analysis of risk reduction at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lochard, J.; Maccia, C.; Pages, P.

    1985-01-01

    Cost-effectiveness analysis of risk reduction is now widely accepted as a rational analytical framework to consistently address the resource allocation problem underlying any risk management process. This paper presents how this technique can be usefully applied to complex systems such as the management of radioactive releases from nuclear power plants into the environment. (orig.) [de

  12. Governance of disaster risk reduction in Cameroon: The need to empower local government

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henry N. Bang

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The impact of natural hazards and/or disasters in Cameroon continues to hit local communities hardest, but local government lacks the ability to manage disaster risks adequately. This is partly due to the fact that the necessity to mainstream disaster risk reduction into local governance and development practices is not yet an underlying principle of Cameroon’s disaster management framework. Using empirical and secondary data, this paper analyses the governance of disaster risks in Cameroon with particular focus on the challenges local government faces in implementing disaster risk reduction strategies. The hypothesis is that the governance of disaster risks is too centralised at the national level, with huge implications for the effective governance of disaster risks at the local level. Although Cameroon has reinvigorated efforts to address growing disaster risks in a proactive way, it is argued that the practical actions are more reactive than proactive in nature. The overall aim is to explore the challenges and opportunities that local government has in the governance of disaster risks. Based on the findings from this research, policy recommendations are suggested on ways to mainstream disaster risk reduction strategies into local governance, and advance understanding and practice in the local governance of disaster risks in the country.

  13. Farmers Prone to Drought Risk: Why Some Farmers Undertake Farm-Level Risk-Reduction Measures While Others Not?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gebrehiwot, Tagel; van der Veen, Anne

    2015-03-01

    This research investigates farmers' cognitive perceptions of risk and the behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. It has been observed that people who are susceptible to natural hazards often fail to act, or do very little, to protect their assets or lives. To answer the question of why some people show adaptive behavior while others do not, a socio-psychological model of precautionary adaptation based on protection motivation theory and trans-theoretical stage model has been applied for the first time to areas of drought risk in the developing countries cultural context. The applicability of the integrated model is explored by means of a representative sample survey of smallholder farmers in northern Ethiopia. The result of the study showed that there is a statistically significant association between farmer's behavioral intention to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures and the main important protection motivation model variables. High perceived vulnerability, severity of consequences, self-efficacy, and response efficacy lead to higher levels of behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. For farmers in the action stage, self-efficacy and response efficacy were the main motivators of behavioral intention. For farmers in the contemplative stage, self-efficacy and cost appear to be the main motivators for them to act upon risk reduction, while perceived severity of consequences and cost of response actions were found to be important for farmers in the pre-contemplative stage.

  14. RISK REDUCTION WITH A FUZZY EXPERT EXPLORATION TOOL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    William W. Weiss

    2000-06-30

    Incomplete or sparse information on geologic or formation characteristics introduces a high level of risk for oil exploration and development projects. Expert systems have been developed and used in several disciplines and industries, including medical diagnostics, with favorable results. A state-of-the-art exploration ''expert'' tool, relying on a computerized data base and computer maps generated by neural networks, is proposed through the use of ''fuzzy'' logic, a relatively new mathematical treatment of imprecise or non-explicit parameters and values. This project will develop an Artificial Intelligence system that will draw upon a wide variety of information to provide realistic estimates of risk. ''Fuzzy logic,'' a system of integrating large amounts of inexact, incomplete information with modern computational methods to derive usable conclusions, has been demonstrated as a cost-effective computational technology in many industrial applications. During project year 1, 90% of geologic, geophysical, production and price data were assimilated for installation into the database. Logs provided geologic data consisting of formation tops of the Brushy Canyon, Lower Brushy Canyon, and Bone Springs zones of 700 wells used to construct regional cross sections. Regional structure and isopach maps were constructed using kriging to interpolate between the measured points. One of the structure derivative maps (azimuth of curvature) visually correlates with Brushy Canyon fields on the maximum change contours. Derivatives of the regional geophysical data also visually correlate with the location of the fields. The azimuth of maximum dip approximately locates fields on the maximum change contours. In a similar manner the second derivative in the x-direction of the gravity map visually correlates with the alignment of the known fields. The visual correlations strongly suggest that neural network architectures will be

  15. Health risk reduction programs in employer-sponsored health plans: Part II-law and ethics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rothstein, Mark A; Harrell, Heather L

    2009-08-01

    We sought to examine the legal and ethical implications of workplace health risk reduction programs (HRRPs) using health risk assessments, individually focused risk reduction, and financial incentives to promote compliance. We conducted a literature review, analyzed relevant statutes and regulations, and considered the effects of these programs on employee health privacy. A variety of laws regulate HRRPs, and there is little evidence that employer-sponsored HRRPs violate these provisions; infringement on individual health privacy is more difficult to assess. Although current laws permit a wide range of employer health promotion activities, HRRPs also may entail largely unquantifiable costs to employee privacy and related interests.

  16. Health Risk Reduction Programs in Employer-Sponsored Health Plans: Part II—Law and Ethics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rothstein, Mark A.; Harrell, Heather L.

    2011-01-01

    Objective We sought to examine the legal and ethical implications of workplace health risk reduction programs (HRRPs) using health risk assessments, individually focused risk reduction, and financial incentives to promote compliance. Methods We conducted a literature review, analyzed relevant statutes and regulations, and considered the effects of these programs on employee health privacy. Results A variety of laws regulate HRRPs, and there is little evidence that employer-sponsored HRRPs violate these provisions; infringement on individual health privacy is more difficult to assess. Conclusion Although current laws permit a wide range of employer health promotion activities, HRRPs also may entail largely unquantifiable costs to employee privacy and related interests. PMID:19625971

  17. US-Soviet cooperation in countering nuclear terrorism: the role of risk reduction centers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nunn, S.; Warner, J.W.

    1987-01-01

    Preventing nuclear terrorism should be high on the agenda of US-Soviet relations. Indeed, the specter of nuclear terrorism, more than any other factor originally prompted and has subsequently sustained the author's deep interest in US-Soviet agreements on establishment of US-Soviet Nuclear Risk Reduction Centers and other important risk-reduction measures. Such centers can play an invaluable role in facilitating discussions aimed at forestalling possible contingencies and in providing a mechanism for dampening escalatory dangers that might otherwise result from any future nuclear terrorism incident. In addition to these crucial substantive functions, the centers could serve to reassure anxious publics that the governments they have entrusted with command authority over tens of thousands of nuclear devices are giving the highest priority to reducing the risk that any of them will ever be used, whether by design or by accident. Nuclear risk Reduction Centers are an idea whose time has come

  18. Reality or illusion? The efficacy of nonmarket strategy in institutional risk reduction \\ud

    OpenAIRE

    Liedong, T. A.; Rajwani, T.; Mellahi, Kamel

    2017-01-01

    Non-market strategy researchers have postulated that political and social strategies reduce the exposure of firms to risk, but those arguments have received little empirical attention. In this paper, we integrate social capital and institutional theories to examine the efficacy of managerial political ties (MPTs) and corporate social responsibility (CSR) in institutional risk reduction. Using survey data from 179 firms in Ghana we find that, whereas CSR reduces institutional risk exposure, MP...

  19. Perceptions of farmers on health risks and risk reduction measures in wastewater-irrigated urban vegetable farming in Ghana

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Keraita, Bernard; Drechsel, Pay; Konradsen, Flemming

    2008-01-01

    , authorities and the general public, especially if they had some incentives. These findings demonstrate the need to involve farmers as early as possible in intervention projects especially in informal farming practices, like urban agriculture, where restrictions are difficult to implement. This will ensure......Most irrigation water used in urban vegetable farming in Ghana is contaminated with untreated wastewater. This poses health risks to farmers and consumers. As part of a study to explore options for health risk reduction, this paper summarizes farmers' perceptions on health risks and possible risk...

  20. Sexual health risk reduction interventions for people with severe mental illness: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandor, Abdullah; Kaltenthaler, Eva; Higgins, Agnes; Lorimer, Karen; Smith, Shubulade; Wylie, Kevan; Wong, Ruth

    2015-02-12

    Despite variability in sexual activity among people with severe mental illness, high-risk sexual behavior (e.g. unprotected intercourse, multiple partners, sex trade and illicit drug use) is common. Sexual health risk reduction interventions (such as educational and behavioral interventions, motivational exercises, counselling and service delivery), developed and implemented for people with severe mental illness, may improve participants' knowledge, attitudes, beliefs behaviors or practices (including assertiveness skills) and could lead to a reduction in risky sexual behavior. This systematic review evaluates the effectiveness of sexual health risk reduction interventions for people with severe mental illness. Thirteen electronic databases (including MEDLINE, EMBASE and PsycINFO) were searched to August 2014, and supplemented by hand-searching relevant articles and contacting experts. All controlled trials (randomized or non-randomized) comparing the effectiveness of sexual health risk reduction interventions with usual care for individuals living in the community with severe mental illness were included. Outcomes included a range of biological, behavioral and proxy endpoints. Narrative synthesis was used to combine the evidence. Thirteen controlled trials (all from the USA) were included. Although there was no clear and consistent evidence that interventions reduce the total number of sex partners or improved behavioral intentions in sexual risk behavior, positive effects were generally observed in condom use, condom protected intercourse and on measures of HIV knowledge, attitudes to condom use and sexual behaviors and practices. However, the robustness of these findings is low due to the large between study variability, small sample sizes and low-to-moderate quality of included studies. There is insufficient evidence at present to fully support or reject the identified sexual health risk reduction interventions for people with severe mental illness. Given the

  1. Disaster Risk Reduction through Innovative Uses of Crowd Sourcing (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berger, J.; Greene, M.

    2010-12-01

    Crowd sourcing can be described as a method of distributed problem-solving. It takes advantage of the power of the crowd, which can in some cases be a community of experts and in other cases the collective insight of a broader range of contributors with varying degrees of domain knowledge. The term crowd sourcing was first used by Jeff Howe in a June 2006 Wired magazine article “The Rise of Crowdsourcing,” and is a combination of the terms “crowd” and “outsourcing.” Some commonly known examples of crowd sourcing, in its broadest sense, include Wikepedia, distributed participatory design projects, and consumer websites such as Yelp and Angie’s List. The popularity and success of early large-scale crowd sourcing activities is made possible through leveraging Web 2.0 technologies that allow for mass participation from distributed individuals. The Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI) in Oakland, California recently participated in two crowd sourcing projects. One was initiated and coordinated by EERI, while in the second case EERI was invited to contribute once the crowd sourcing activity was underway. In both projects there was: 1) the determination of a problem or set of tasks that could benefit immediately from the engagement of an informed volunteer group of professionals; 2) a segmenting of the problem into discrete pieces that could be completed in a short period of time (from ten minutes to four hours); 3) a call to action, where an interested community was made aware of the project; and 4) the collection, aggregation, vetting and ultimately distribution of the results in a relatively short period of time. The first EERI crowd sourcing example was the use of practicing engineers and engineering students in California to help estimate the number of pre-1980 concrete buildings in the high seismic risk counties in the state. This building type is known to perform poorly in earthquakes, and state officials were interested in understanding

  2. Risk Reduction in Terrorism Cases: Sentencing and the Post-Conviction Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelly Berkell

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This article explores existing underpinnings in the United States criminal justice system for post-conviction risk reduction measures in terrorism cases. The purpose of these measures is to reduce the risk of future criminality by those already convicted of violent extremist offenses, thereby protecting public safety while also benefiting individuals and communities. Specifically, integrating specialized risk and needs assessments into terrorism cases at sentencing and during the corrections process constitutes one possible risk reduction measure. When administered to individuals convicted of providing material support or other terrorism-related offenses, rigorous evaluations can supply courts with information significant for sentencing and, when appropriate, structuring individualized rehabilitation approaches. In addition to assessment tools, rehabilitation and reintegration programs constitute potential risk reduction measures. Risk reduction programs would supplement and enhance, not replace, existing correctional methods including incarceration and supervised release. The District of Minnesota federal court is pioneering a program of disengagement and deradicalization for terrorism defendants, and other courts likely will develop similar approaches. However, appropriate judicial bodies have yet to adopt proactive roles in developing national policy guidance in this area. This article aims to further the discussion of reducing recidivism risk in terrorism cases by clarifying the legal and technical issues that would require resolution as prerequisites for the consideration and potential development of post-conviction programming.

  3. POTENTIAL HEALTH RISK REDUCTION ARISING FROM REDUCED MERCURY EMISSIONS FROM COAL FIRED POWER PLANTS.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, T. M.; Lipfert, F. W.; Morris, S. C.; Moskowitz, P. D.

    2001-09-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has announced plans to regulate mercury (Hg) emissions from coal-fired power plants. EPA has not prepared a quantitative assessment of the reduction in risk that could be achieved through reduction in coal plant emissions of Hg. To address this issue, Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) with support from the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Fossil Energy (DOE FE) prepared a quantitative assessment of the reduction in human health risk that could be achieved through reduction in coal plant emissions of Hg. The primary pathway for Hg exposure is through consumption of fish. The most susceptible population to Hg exposure is the fetus. Therefore the risk assessment focused on consumption of fish by women of child-bearing age. Dose response factors were generated from studies on loss of cognitive abilities (language skills, motor skills, etc.) by young children whose mothers consumed large amounts of fish with high Hg levels. Population risks were estimated for the general population in three regions of the country, (the Midwest, Northeast, and Southeast) that were identified by EPA as being heavily impacted by coal emissions. Three scenarios for reducing Hg emissions from coal plants were considered: (1) A base case using current conditions; (2) A 50% reduction; and, (3) A 90% reduction. These reductions in emissions were assumed to translate linearly into a reduction in fish Hg levels of 8.6% and 15.5%, respectively. Population risk estimates were also calculated for two subsistence fisher populations. These groups of people consume substantially more fish than the general public and, depending on location, the fish may contain higher Hg levels than average. Risk estimates for these groups were calculated for the three Hg levels used for the general population analyses. Analysis shows that the general population risks for exposure of the fetus to Hg are small. Estimated risks under current conditions (i.e., no

  4. Parallel structures for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in Southern Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Per Becker

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available During the last decade, the interest of the international community in the concepts of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation has been growing immensely. Even though an increasing number of scholars seem to view these concepts as two sides of the same coin (at least when not considering the potentially positive effects of climate change, in practice the two concepts have developed in parallel rather than in an integrated manner when it comes to policy, rhetoric and funding opportunities amongst international organisations and donors. This study investigates the extent of the creation of parallel structures for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in the Southern African Development Community (SADC region. The chosen methodology for the study is a comparative case study and the data are collected through focus groups and content analysis of documentary sources, as well as interviews with key informants. The results indicate that parallel structures for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation have been established in all but one of the studied countries. The qualitative interviews performed in some of the countries indicate that stakeholders in disaster risk reduction view this duplication of structures as unfortunate, inefficient and a fertile setup for conflict over resources for the implementation of similar activities. Additional research is called for in order to study the concrete effects of having these parallel structures as a foundation for advocacy for more efficient future disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation.

  5. Evaluation of severe accident risks and the potential for risk reduction: Surry Power Station, Unit 1: Draft report for comment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benjamin, A.S.; Boyd, G.J.; Kunsman, D.M.; Murfin, W.B.; Williams, D.C.

    1987-02-01

    The Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a rebaselining of the risks to the public from a particular pressurized water reactor with a subatmospheric containment (Surry, Unit 1). Emphasis was placed on determining the magnitude and character of the uncertainties, rather than focusing on a point estimate. The risk-reduction potential of a set of proposed safety option backfits was also studied, and their costs and benefits were also evaluated. It was found that the risks from internal events are generally lower than previously evaluated in the Reactor Safety Study (RSS). However, certain unresolved issues (such as direct containment heating) caused the top of the uncertainty band to appear at a level that is comparable with the RSS point estimate. None of the postulated safety options appears to be cost effective for the Surry power plant. This work supports the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's assessment of severe accidents in NUREG-1150

  6. Evaluation of severe accident risks and the potential for risk reduction: Surry Power Station, Unit 1: Draft report for comment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benjamin, A.S.; Boyd, G.J.; Kunsman, D.M.; Murfin, W.B.; Williams, D.C.

    1987-02-01

    The Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a rebaselining of the risks to the public from a particular pressurized water reactor with a subatmospheric containment (Surry, Unit 1). Emphasis was placed on determining the magnitude and character of the uncertainties, rather than focusing on a point estimate. The risk-reduction potential of a set of proposed safety option backfits was also studied, and their costs and benefits were also evaluated. It was found that the risks from internal events are generally lower than previously evaluated in the Reactor Safety Study (RSS). However, certain unresolved issues (such as direct containment heating) caused the top of the uncertainty band to appear at a level that is comparable with the RSS point estimate. None of the postulated safety options appears to be cost effective for the Surry power plant. This work supports the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's assessment of severe accidents in NUREG-1150.

  7. The association of technology in a workplace wellness program with health risk factor reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loeppke, Ron; Edington, Dee; Bender, Joel; Reynolds, Ashley

    2013-03-01

    Determine whether there is a relationship between level of engagement in workplace wellness programs and population/individual health risk reductions. A total of 7804 employees from 15 employers completed health risk appraisal and laboratory testing at baseline and again after 2 years of participating in their personalized prevention plan. Population and individual health risk transitions were analyzed across the population, as well as by stage of engagement. Of those individuals who started in a high risk category at baseline, 46% moved down to medium risk and 19% moved down to low risk category after 2 years on their prevention plan. In the group that only engaged through the Web-based technology, 24% reduced their health risks (P technology and interactive Web-based tools can empower individuals to be more proactive about their health and reduce their health risks.

  8. Shifting the paradigm: an assessment of the quality of fall risk reduction in Nebraska hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Katherine J; Venema, Dawn M; Nailon, Regina; Skinner, Anne M; High, Robin; Kennel, Victoria

    2015-01-01

    To assess the prevalence of evidence-based fall risk reduction structures and processes in Nebraska hospitals; whether fall rates are associated with specific structures and processes; and whether fall risk reduction structures, processes, and outcomes vary by hospital type--Critical Access Hospital (CAH) versus non-CAH. A cross-sectional survey of Nebraska's 83 general community hospitals, 78% of which are CAHs. We used a negative binomial rate model to estimate fall rates while adjusting for hospital volume (patient days) and the exact Pearson chi-square test to determine associations between hospital type and the structure and process of fall risk reduction. Approximately two-thirds or more of 70 hospitals used 6 of 9 evidence-based universal fall risk reduction interventions; 50% or more used 14 of 16 evidence-based targeted interventions. After adjusting for hospital volume, hospitals in which teams integrated evidence from multiple disciplines and reflected upon data and modified polices/procedures based upon data had significantly lower total and injurious fall rates per 1,000 patient days than hospitals that did not. Non-CAHs were significantly more likely than CAHs to perform 5 organizational-level fall risk reduction processes. CAHs reported significantly greater total (5.9 vs 4.0) and injurious (1.7 vs 0.9) fall rates per 1,000 patient days than did non-CAHs. Hospital type was a significant predictor of fall rates. However, shifting the paradigm for fall risk reduction from a nursing-centric approach to one in which teams implement evidence-based practices and learn from data may decrease fall risk regardless of hospital type. © 2014 National Rural Health Association.

  9. Reflections from the interface between seismological research and earthquake risk reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sargeant, S.

    2012-04-01

    Scientific understanding of earthquakes and their attendant hazards is vital for the development of effective earthquake risk reduction strategies. Within the global disaster reduction policy framework (the Hyogo Framework for Action, overseen by the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction), the anticipated role of science and scientists is clear, with respect to risk assessment, loss estimation, space-based observation, early warning and forecasting. The importance of information sharing and cooperation, cross-disciplinary networks and developing technical and institutional capacity for effective disaster management is also highlighted. In practice, the degree to which seismological information is successfully delivered to and applied by individuals, groups or organisations working to manage or reduce the risk from earthquakes is variable. The challenge for scientists is to provide fit-for-purpose information that can be integrated simply into decision-making and risk reduction activities at all levels of governance and at different geographic scales, often by a non-technical audience (i.e. people without any seismological/earthquake engineering training). The interface between seismological research and earthquake risk reduction (defined here in terms of both the relationship between the science and its application, and the scientist and other risk stakeholders) is complex. This complexity is a function of a range issues that arise relating to communication, multidisciplinary working, politics, organisational practices, inter-organisational collaboration, working practices, sectoral cultures, individual and organisational values, worldviews and expectations. These factors can present significant obstacles to scientific information being incorporated into the decision-making process. The purpose of this paper is to present some personal reflections on the nature of the interface between the worlds of seismological research and risk reduction, and the

  10. First Evaluation of a Contingency Management Intervention Addressing Adolescent Substance Use and Sexual Risk Behaviors: Risk Reduction Therapy for Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Letourneau, Elizabeth J; McCart, Michael R; Sheidow, Ashli J; Mauro, Pia M

    2017-01-01

    There is a need for interventions that comprehensively address youth substance use disorders (SUD) and sexual risk behaviors. Risk Reduction Therapy for Adolescents (RRTA) adapts a validated family-focused intervention for youth SUD to include sexual risk reduction components in a single intervention. In this first evaluation of RRTA, drug court involved youth were randomly assigned to RRTA (N=45) or usual services (US; N=60) and followed through 12-months post-baseline. RRTA included weekly cognitive behavior therapy and behavior management training and contingency-contracting with a point earning system managed by caregivers targeting drug use and sexual risk antecedents. Longitudinal models estimated within-group change and between-group differences through 6- and 12-month follow-up on outcomes for substance use, sexual risk behaviors, and protective HIV behaviors. Robust effects of the intervention were not detected under conditions of the study that included potent background interventions by the juvenile drug court. Considerations about future development and testing of sexual risk reduction therapy for youth are discussed, including the potential role of contingency management in future interventions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Risk measures in practical use: risk reduction has its price, but is it known?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reinertsen, Rune

    1995-01-01

    Different risk measures are discussed in order to decide which to use to best express the risk workers are exposed to. A new risk measure is introduced and advantages and disadvantages are presented. The need for a new risk measure (Expected Number of Fatalities Rate ENFR), is discussed and explained with the help of an example. The example also contains a comparison with the well-known FAR-value. Also some problems and benefits of introducing a measure of the kind: ΔRISK/Δ$ are discussed and conclusions made. The question of what amount of money should be used on risk reducing activities is also addressed

  12. Risk factors for L5-S1 disk height reduction after lumbar posterolateral floating fusion surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inoue, Gen; Takaso, Masashi; Miyagi, Masayuki; Kamoda, Hiroto; Ishikawa, Tetsuhiro; Nakazawa, Toshiyuki; Imura, Takayuki; Ueno, Masaki; Saito, Wataru; Uchida, Kentaro; Toyone, Tomoaki; Takahashi, Kazuhisa; Ohtori, Seiji

    2014-07-01

    This is a retrospective study. To investigate the risk factors for radiographic L5-S1 disk height reduction after lumbar posterolateral floating fusion surgery. We investigated data from 86 patients (45 men) who underwent posterolateral floating fusion surgery from 2007 to 2010. The follow-up was from 2 to 6 years. The mean age of the patients was 65.4 years. L5-S1 disk height was calculated and >2 mm reduction was defined as significant. Age, sex, height, weight, body mass index, number of fused levels, grade of disk degeneration, disk height and diameter, sacrolumbar alignment, alignment of fused level, achievement of union, and proximal adjacent segment disorder at final follow-up were compared. Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were performed. L5-S1 disk height reduction occurred in 14 patients (30.2%). The number of fused levels was significantly greater (1.8±0.8 vs. 1.4±0.6) in patients without disk height reduction. Radiology showed a significant change of L1-S1 sacrolumbar alignment after surgery in patients without disk height reduction (0.3±6.6 vs. -4.5±7.6 degrees). The height of the disk posterior to the L5-S1 intervertebral disk before surgery was significantly greater (7.3±2.1 vs. 6.1±2.1 mm) in patients without disk height reduction. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, fusion of >3 levels was a significant risk factor for L5-S1 disk height reduction. In posterolateral floating fusion surgery, there was a higher risk of L5-S1 disk height reduction and consequent foraminal stenosis in patients with multiple-level fusion. Surgical methods and fusion levels should be chosen after considering their association with L5-S1 disk height reduction.

  13. Evaluation of a cardiovascular Risk Reduction Program at a workplace medical clinic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andres, Kara L; Renn, Tracy A; Gray, David A; Englund, Joanne M; Olsen, Geary W; Letourneau, Barbara K

    2013-10-01

    The Cardiovascular Risk Reduction Program (CVRRP) was implemented in the 3M Medical Clinic in December 2009. The goal of the CVRRP was to evaluate 3M employees at risk for developing cardiovascular disease (CVD) and address any related modifiable risk factors with appropriate intervention strategies through clinic visits with a 3M nurse practitioner or physician and, if needed, a registered dietitian and/or exercise professional. Data for the first 100 participants were analyzed to initially assess the effectiveness of the program. Based on this evaluation, the 3M CVRRP and active collaboration between participants and providers in the workplace successfully reduced modifiable CVD risk factors. Copyright 2013, SLACK Incorporated.

  14. Survey of risk reduction and pollution prevention practices in the Rhode Island automotive refinishing industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enander, R T; Gute, D M; Missaghian, R

    1998-07-01

    In 1996 a survey of pollution prevention, environmental control, and occupational health and safety practices was conducted in the Rhode Island automotive refinishing industry sector. In conjunction with project partners, the Rhode Island Department of Environmental Management developed a multidimensional survey instrument to identify risk reduction opportunities. Investigators sought to characterize the range of environmental and industrial hygiene control employed by Rhode Island facilities for the purposes of focusing state technical and compliance assistance efforts. Data were collected on a diverse range of subject areas including work force demographics; source reduction; potential health hazards; worker protection and safety; solid and hazardous waste management; and air pollution control. Nearly one-half of the shops employ three or fewer people, and in many cases, spray painters double as body repair technicians thereby increasing their potential exposure to workplace contaminants. While nearly all of the shops reported that they use spray painting booths, only 38% own booths the more effective downdraft design. Based on the self-reported data, recently promulgated state air pollution control regulations (requiring the use of compliant coatings, enclosed or modified spray gun cleaners, and high-volume, low-pressure, spray guns) appear to be effective at motivating companies toward source reduction. A range of risk reduction opportunities were identified as input material changes, technology changes, and improved operating practices. Better methods of risk communication; a professional licensing requirement; and targeted training, compliance, and technical assistance would help to achieve greater levels of risk reduction in this mature, high-hazard industry.

  15. Copper increases reductive dehalogenation of haloacetamides by zero-valent iron in drinking water: Reduction efficiency and integrated toxicity risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Wenhai; Li, Xin; Bond, Tom; Gao, Naiyun; Bin, Xu; Wang, Qiongfang; Ding, Shunke

    2016-12-15

    The haloacetamides (HAcAms), an emerging class of nitrogen-containing disinfection byproducts (N-DBPs), are highly cytotoxic and genotoxic, and typically occur in treated drinking waters at low μg/L concentrations. Since many drinking distribution and storage systems contain unlined cast iron and copper pipes, reactions of HAcAms with zero-valent iron (ZVI) and metallic copper (Cu) may play a role in determining their fate. Moreover, ZVI and/or Cu are potentially effective HAcAm treatment technologies in drinking water supply and storage systems. This study reports that ZVI alone reduces trichloroacetamide (TCAcAm) to sequentially form dichloroacetamide (DCAcAm) and then monochloroacetamide (MCAcAm), whereas Cu alone does not impact HAcAm concentrations. The addition of Cu to ZVI significantly improved the removal of HAcAms, relative to ZVI alone. TCAcAm and their reduction products (DCAcAm and MCAcAm) were all decreased to below detection limits at a molar ratio of ZVI/Cu of 1:1 after 24 h reaction (ZVI/TCAcAm = 0.18 M/5.30 μM). TCAcAm reduction increased with the decreasing pH from 8.0 to 5.0, but values from an integrated toxic risk assessment were minimised at pH 7.0, due to limited removal MCAcAm under weak acid conditions (pH = 5.0 and 6.0). Higher temperatures (40 °C) promoted the reductive dehalogenation of HAcAms. Bromine was preferentially removed over chlorine, thus brominated HAcAms were more easily reduced than chlorinated HAcAms by ZVI/Cu. Although tribromoacetamide was more easily reduced than TCAcAm during ZVI/Cu reduction, treatment of tribromoacetamide resulted in a higher integrated toxicity risk than TCAcAm, due to the formation of monobromoacetamide (MBAcAm). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Reduction of cancer risk by optimization of Computed Tomography head protocols: far eastern Cuban experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller Clemente, R.; Adame Brooks, D.; Lores Guevara, M.; Perez Diaz, M.; Arias Garlobo, M. L.; Ortega Rodriguez, O.; Nepite Haber, R.; Grinnan Hernandez, O.; Guillama Llosas, A.

    2015-01-01

    The cancer risk estimation constitutes one way for the evaluation of the public health, regarding computed tomography (CT) exposures. Starting from the hypothesis that the optimization of CT protocols would reduce significantly the added cancer risk, the purpose of this research was the application of optimization strategies regarding head CT protocols, in order to reduce the factors affecting the risk of induced cancer. The applied systemic approach included technological and human components, represented by quantitative physical factors. the volumetric kerma indexes, compared with respect to standard, optimized and reference values, were evaluated with multiple means comparison method. The added cancer risk resulted from the application of the methodology for biological effects evaluation, at low doses with low Linear Energy Transfer. Human observers in all scenarios evaluated the image quality. the reduced dose was significantly lower than for standard head protocols and reference levels, where: (1) for pediatric patients, by using an Automatic Exposure Control system, a reduction of 31% compared with standard protocol and ages range of 10-14, and (2) adults, using a Bilateral Filter for images obtained at low doses of 62% from those of standard head protocol. The risk reduction was higher than 25%. The systemic approach used allows the effective identification of factors involved on cancer risk related with exposures to CT. The combination of dose modulation and image restoration with Bilateral Filter, provide a significantly reduction of cancer risk, with acceptable diagnostic image quality. (Author)

  17. International Symposium on Seismic Risk Reduction. The JICA Technical Cooperation Project in Romania. Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hiroto; Vacareanu, Radu

    2007-01-01

    In the 5th year of the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) Technical Cooperation Project 'Seismic Risk Reduction for Buildings and Structures in Romania', the implementing agency - National Center for Seismic Risk Reduction (NCSRR) and JICA jointly organized the International Symposium on Seismic Risk Reduction (ISSRR-2007) held in Bucharest at the Romanian Academy Library in the period April 26-27, 2007. The present volume contains the Proceedings of the International Symposium on Seismic Risk Reduction, ISSRR-2007. The Proceedings are organized in three parts: (I) keynote lectures, (II) papers on the results of JICA Project in Romania and (III) contributions from authors. Eight keynote lectures by specialists from Japan, USA, France and Greece, and fourteen papers on the results of JICA Project are included. The contributions from authors are divided in five sections: (i) Seismicity, Seismic Hazard and Site Effects, (ii) Seismic Vulnerability and Seismic Risk, (iii) Seismic Rehabilitation, (iv) Seismic analysis and Design and (v) Urban disaster mitigation and earthquake damage. The Proceedings contain 64 papers (from 19 countries) submitted for publication

  18. Knowledge of cancer risk reduction practices in rural towns of New South Wales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hancock, L; Sanson-Fisher, R; Redman, S; Reid, A; Tripodi, T

    1996-10-01

    The Australian Cancer Society has published guidelines for recommended risk reduction strategies for breast, cervical, smoking-related and skin cancer. While knowledge may not be sufficient for change, it is argued to be necessary for change to occur. A measure of the level of health knowledge in the community can be useful for health promotion practitioners, identifying where health messages are not reaching their proposed targets. Our aims were to examine the level of knowledge about risk reduction practices for breast, cervical, smoking-related and skin cancers, for a rural New South Wales sample, and to examine sex and age effects on knowledge levels. A survey of 2846 women and 1732 men from rural New South Wales, which used an unprompted recall strategy, revealed some notable deficits in recall of cancer risk reduction practices: only 26 per cent of women identified mammograms as a risk reduction strategy for breast cancer; only 5 per cent of women knew at which ages mammograms should start and stop; only 6 per cent of women could identify when Pap tests should be discontinued; less than half of the sample could identify common solar protection strategies; and less than one-third of people identified passive smoking as a lung cancer risk.

  19. Calibration with Absolute Shrinkage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Øjelund, Henrik; Madsen, Henrik; Thyregod, Poul

    2001-01-01

    In this paper, penalized regression using the L-1 norm on the estimated parameters is proposed for chemometric je calibration. The algorithm is of the lasso type, introduced by Tibshirani in 1996 as a linear regression method with bound on the absolute length of the parameters, but a modification...... to the lasso. The lasso is applied both directly as a calibration method and as a method to select important variables/wave lengths. It is demonstrated that the lasso algorithm, in general, leads to parameter estimates of which some are zero while others are quite large (compared to e.g. the traditional PLS...

  20. International Frameworks for Disaster Risk Reduction: Useful Guidance for Sustainable Mountain Development?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Markus Zimmermann

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available In recent decades, a number of global frameworks have been developed for disaster risk reduction (DRR. The Hyogo Framework for Action 2005–2015 and its successor document, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, adopted in Japan in March 2015, provide general guidance for reducing risks from natural hazards. This is particularly important for mountainous areas, but DRR for mountain areas and sustainable mountain development received little attention in the recent policy debate. The question remains whether the Hyogo and Sendai frameworks can provide guidance for sustainable mountain development. This article evaluates the 2 frameworks in light of the special challenges of DRR in mountain areas and argues that, while the frameworks offer valuable guidance, they need to be further adapted for local contexts—particularly for mountain areas, which require special attention because of changing risk patterns like the effects of climate change and high land-use pressure.

  1. Effects of cigarette reduction on cardiovascular risk factors and subjective measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatsukami, Dorothy K; Kotlyar, Michael; Allen, Sharon; Jensen, Joni; Li, Shelby; Le, Chap; Murphy, Sharon

    2005-10-01

    To assess the effect of continued smoking and smoking reduction on cardiovascular biomarkers (eg, WBC count, cholesterol concentrations, BP, heart rate). This study, conducted at the University of Minnesota, randomized smokers interested in significantly reducing cigarette use but not quitting to either start 12 weeks of smoking reduction immediately (n = 102), assisted by nicotine replacement therapy, or to a 6-week wait list (n = 49). Those starting smoking reduction were required to reduce smoking by 25% for 2 weeks, 50% for 2 weeks, and 75% during the final 2 weeks. After 6 weeks, the subjects were asked to maintain a 50% reduction or quit. Nicotine gum and, if necessary, nicotine patch were used to achieve reduction goals. The wait list group (n = 49) smoked ad libitum for 6 weeks and then reduced smoking as previously described. Cardiovascular biomarkers (eg, WBC count, cholesterol concentrations, BP, heart rate) were assessed at several time points after enrollment. During ad libitum smoking, cardiovascular biomarkers remained relatively stable with correlation coefficients across the various time measurements, ranging from 0.44 to 1.00 (p hematocrit, RBC and WBC counts, lipids, BP, heart rate, respiratory symptoms, all p < 0.0167). These results show the availability of reliable and dose-sensitive biomarkers and that reduction in smoking can lead to significant but only modest changes in cardiovascular risk factors in healthy smokers. It is not known whether the reductions in cardiovascular risk factors observed after smoking reduction are also associated with reduced disease risk. Additional research is necessary to address this issue.

  2. Application of quantitative microbial risk assessment for selection of microbial reduction targets for hard surface disinfectants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryan, Michael O; Haas, Charles N; Gurian, Patrick L; Gerba, Charles P; Panzl, Brian M; Rose, Joan B

    2014-11-01

    This quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) included problem formulation for fomites and hazard identification for 7 microorganisms, including pathogenic Escherichia coli and E coli 0157:H7, Listeria monocytogenes, norovirus, Pseudomonas spp, Salmonella spp, and Staphylococcus aureus. The goal was to address a risk-based process for choosing the log10 reduction recommendations, in contrast to the current US Environmental Protection Agency requirements. For each microbe evaluated, the QMRA model included specific dose-response models, occurrence determination of aerobic bacteria and specific organisms on fomites, exposure assessment, risk characterization, and risk reduction. Risk estimates were determined for a simple scenario using a single touch of a contaminated surface and self-inoculation. A comparative analysis of log10 reductions, as suggested by the US Environmental Protection Agency, and the risks based on this QMRA approach was also undertaken. The literature review and meta-analysis showed that aerobic bacteria were the most commonly studied on fomites, averaging 100 colony-forming units (CFU)/cm(2). Pseudomonas aeruginosa was found at a level of 3.3 × 10(-1) CFU/cm(2); methicillin-resistant S aureus (MRSA), at 6.4 × 10(-1) CFU/cm(2). Risk estimates per contact event ranged from a high of 10(-3) for norovirus to a low of 10(-9) for S aureus. This QMRA analysis suggests that a reduction in bacterial numbers on a fomite by 99% (2 logs) most often will reduce the risk of infection from a single contact to less than 1 in 1 million. Copyright © 2014 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Use of the event tree to assess the risk reduction obtained from rockfall protection devices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Peila

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents and discusses a procedure for the evaluation of the collective risk that can affect a road subjected to rockfalls, with and without protection measures, by means of the event tree analysis. This tool is useful to show designers whether the rockfall protection structures are located in the correct positions, whether they are the correct technological choice and what level of reduction of risk can be obtained. Different design options can therefore be compared on the same bases.

  4. Introduction to cost-effectiveness analysis of risk reduction measures in energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-07-01

    The aim of this report is to introduce readers to methods of cost-effectiveness analysis and their application in risk reduction, especially in connection with the energy-producing industries. The background to the assessment of risk and the problems in estimating it quantitatively are outlined. The methodology of cost-effectiveness analysis is then described, particular attention being given to the way in which results are derived and the overall use that can be made of them. This is followed by a discussion of quantitative applications and an outline of the methods that may be used to derive estimates both of risk and the cost of reducing it. The use of cost-effectiveness analysis is illustrated in an appendix, which gives as a worked example a case study on the reduction of public risk associated with radioactive releases during normal operation of a PWR. After drawing some general conclusions the report recommends that such analyses should normally be used as an aid to risk management whenever several alternative risk reduction measures are under consideration

  5. Historic Landslide Data Combined with Sentinel Satellite Data to Improve Modelling for Disaster Risk Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bye, B. L.; Kontoes, C.; Catarino, N.; De Lathouwer, B.; Concalves, P.; Meyer-Arnek, J.; Mueller, A.; Kraft, C.; Grosso, N.; Goor, E.; Voidrot, M. F.; Trypitsidis, A.

    2017-12-01

    Landslides are geohazards potentially resulting in disasters. Landslides both vary enormously in their distribution in space and time. The surface deformation varies considerably from one type of instability to another. Individual ground instabilities may have a common trigger (extreme rainfall, earthquake), and therefore occur alongside many equivalent occurrences over a large area. This means that they can have a significant regional impact demanding national and international disaster risk reduction strategies. Regional impacts require collaboration across boarders as reflected in The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015-2030). The data demands related to the SDGs are unprecedented, another factor that will require coordinated efforts at the global, regional and national levels. Data of good quality are vital for governments, international organizations, civil society, the private sector and the general public in order to make informed decisions, included for disaster risk reduction. The NextGEOSS project evolves the European vision of a user driven GEOSS data exploitation for innovation and business, relying on 3 main pillars; engaging communities of practice, delivering technological advancements, and advocating the use of GEOSS. These 3 pillars support the creation and deployment of Earth observation based innovative research activities and commercial services. In this presentation we will explain how one of the 10 NextGEOSS pilots, Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), plan to provide an enhanced multi-hazard risk assessment framework based on statistical analysis of long time series of data. Landslide events monitoring and landslides susceptibility estimation will be emphazised. Workflows will be based on models developed in the context of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service. Data envisaged to be used are: Radar SAR data; Yearly ground deformation/velocities; Historic landslide inventory; data related to topographic, geological, hydrological

  6. Absolute Gravimetry in Fennoscandia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pettersen, B. R; TImmen, L.; Gitlein, O.

    away from this central location. An oval shaped zero uplift isoline tracks the general western and northern coastline of Norway and the Kola peninsula. It returns southwest through Russian Karelia and touches the southern tip of Sweden and northern Denmark. The uplift area (as measured by present day...... motions) has its major axis in the direction of southwest to northeast and covers a distance of about 2000 km. Absolute gravimetry was made in Finland and Norway in 1976 with a rise-and fall instrument. A decade later the number of gravity stations was expanded by JILAg-5, in Finland from 1988, in Norway...... acquired by IfE (FG5-220), FGI (FG5-221), and UMB (FG5-226). New absolute gravity stations were established by the national mapping agencies in Denmark, Norway, and Sweden. The total number of prepared sites in Fennoscandia is now about 30. Most of them are co-located with permanent GPS, for many of which...

  7. SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGICAL DYNAMICS OF ENHANCED HIV RISK REDUCTION AMONG PEER INTERVENTIONISTS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickson-Gomez, Julia; Weeks, Margaret R; Convey, Mark; Li, Jianghong

    2011-05-01

    The authors present a model of interactive social psychological and relational feedback processes leading to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risk reduction behavior change among active drug users trained as Peer Health Advocates (PHAs). The model is supported by data from qualitative interviews with PHAs and members of their drug-using networks in the Risk Avoidance Partnership (RAP) project. Results suggest three mutually reinforcing social psychological processes that motivate PHAs to provide HIV prevention intervention to their peers and to reduce their own risk behaviors: development of a prosocial identity, positive social reinforcement from drug users and community members, and cognitive dissonance associated with continued risk behavior while engaging in health advocacy. These processes directly influence peer interventionists' motivation and efficacy to continue giving intervention to their peers, and to reduce their HIV risk behaviors. The authors discuss implications of the model for continued research on effective HIV prevention in high-risk groups.

  8. Risk reduction in craniofacial surgery using computer-based modeling and intraoperative immersion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salb, Tobias; Burgert, Oliver; Gockel, Tilo; Brief, Jakob; Hassfeld, Stefan; Muehling, Joachim; Dillmann, Ruediger

    2002-01-01

    We present a two-stage concept for risk reduction in craniofacial surgery, consisting of preoperative risk modeling and intraoperative risk reduction. Preoperatively it is important to find and to visualize risk sources in order to minimize them. Our risk model is composed by superimposition of an isotropic risk potential and an anisotropic tissue field constituent. It is being applied to preoperative planning and simulation of craniofacial surgeries, for example to determine an access path with least overall risk value. In the operation room risks arise mainly from the absence of preoperative planning and simulation data in the operation field. We use a see-through head-mounted display to optimize this situation in order to allow the surgeon to maintain accuracy in the whole process of computer aided surgery. Main steps of the intraoperative immersion are optical tracking of the surgeon wearing the head-mounted display and of the patient, registration of preoperatively calculated planning data with the patient and visualization of the data within the glasses.

  9. Effectiveness of a fall-risk reduction programme for inpatient rehabilitation after stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goljar, Nika; Globokar, Daniel; Puzić, Nataša; Kopitar, Natalija; Vrabič, Maja; Ivanovski, Matic; Vidmar, Gaj

    2016-09-01

    To evaluate effectiveness of fall-risk-assessment-based fall prevention for stroke rehabilitation inpatients. A consecutive series of 232 patients admitted for the first time to a subacute stroke-rehabilitation ward during 2010-2011 was studied in detail. The Assessment Sheet for Fall Prediction in Stroke Inpatients (ASFPSI by Nakagawa et al.) was used to assess fall-risk upon admission. Association of ASFPSI score and patient characteristics with actual falls was statistically tested. Yearly incidence of falls per 1000 hospital days (HD) was retrospectively audited for the 2006-2014 period to evaluate effectiveness of fall-risk reduction measures. The observed incidence of falls over the detailed-study-period was 3.0/1000 HD; 39% of the fallers fell during the first week after admission. ASFPSI score was not significantly associated with falls. Longer hospital stay, left body-side affected and non-extreme FIM score (55-101) were associated with higher odds of fall. Introduction of fall-risk reduction measures followed by compulsory fall-risk assessment lead to incidence of falls dropping from 7.1/1000 HD in 2006 to 2.8/1000 HD in 2011 and remaining at that level until 2014. The fall-risk-assessment-based measures appear to have led to decreasing falls risk among post-stroke rehabilitation inpatients classified as being at high risk of falls. The fall prevention programme as a whole was successful. Patients with non-extreme level of functional independence should receive enhanced fall prevention. Implications for Rehabilitation Recognising the fall risk upon the patient's admission is essential for preventing falls in rehabilitation wards. Assessing the fall risk is a team tasks and combines information from various sources. Assessing fall risk in stroke patients using the assessment sheet by Nakagawa et al. immediately upon admission systematically draws attention to the risk of falls in each individual patient.

  10. Effects of Participation in a Sexual Assault Risk Reduction Program on Psychological Distress following Revictimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mouilso, Emily R.; Calhoun, Karen S.; Gidycz, Christine A.

    2011-01-01

    The current study followed women who participated in a sexual assault risk reduction program and a wait-list control group for 4 months. Those women in both groups who reported being revictimized (N = 147) were assessed to determine the effect of program participation on psychological distress. Intervention group participants reported a…

  11. Social Media Use and Sexual Risk Reduction Behavior Among Minority Youth: Seeking Safe Sex Information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevens, Robin; Gilliard-Matthews, Stacia; Dunaev, Jamie; Todhunter-Reid, Abigail; Brawner, Bridgette; Stewart, Jennifer

    Sexual health is an important area of study-particularly for minority youth and youth living in disadvantaged neighborhoods. The purpose of the research was to examine the sources of sexual health information associated with youth adopting sexual risk reduction behaviors. Data collection took place in a small city in the Northeastern United States using cross-sectional behavioral surveys and modified venue-based sampling. Participants included 249 African American and Latino youth aged 13-24. Participants reported their sources of information about contraception and human immunodeficiency virus/sexually transmitted disease, such as TV/movies, parents, social media; their intentions to have sex; and condom and contraception use during their last sexual activity. Social media use, past pregnancy experience, past sexual history, age, and gender were also measured. Standard tests of bivariate association (chi-square and F tests) were used to examine initial associations between sexual risk reduction behavior and exposure to sexual risk reduction information on social media. Logistic regression models were used to test multivariate relationships between information sources and sexual risk reduction behavior. Youth who were exposed to sexual health messages on social media were 2.69 times (p information sources were not significantly associated with contractive use or condom use at last intercourse. Youth sexual behavior is increasingly informed by social media messages. Health practitioners should utilize social media as an important health promotion tool.

  12. Risk reduction in road and rail LPG transportation bij passive fire protection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Molag e.a., M. (Menso)

    2009-01-01

    The potential reduction of risk in LPG (Liquified Petroleum Gas) road transport due to the adoption of passive fire protectionswas investigated. Experimental data available for small scale vessels fully engulfed by a fire were extended to real scale road and rail tankers through a finite elements

  13. Risk reduction in road and rail LPG transportation by passive fire protection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paltrinieri, N.; Landucci, G.; Molag, M.; Bonvicini, S.; Spadoni, G.; Cozzani, V.

    2009-01-01

    The potential reduction of risk in LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) road transport due to the adoption of passive fire protections was investigated. Experimental data available for small scale vessels fully engulfed by a fire were extended to real scale road and rail tankers through a finite elements

  14. Combining Primary Prevention and Risk Reduction Approaches in Sexual Assault Protection Programming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menning, Chadwick; Holtzman, Mellisa

    2015-01-01

    Objective: The object of this study is to extend prior evaluations of Elemental, a sexual assault protection program that combines primary prevention and risk reduction strategies within a single program. Participants and Methods: During 2012 and 2013, program group and control group students completed pretest, posttest, and 6-week and 6-month…

  15. Education for disaster risk reduction : linking theory with practice in Ghana´s basic schools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Apronti, Priscilla; Saito, Osamu; Otsuki, K.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/306279258; Kranjac-Berisavljevic, Gordana

    2015-01-01

    Current understanding of disaster risk reduction (DRR) concurs that, when provided the right education, children have the potential to reduce their own vulnerability and the vulnerability of others in their community. What, then, comprises the right education for DRR? Research has established the

  16. Pediatricians' Role and Practices regarding Provision of Guidance about Sexual Risk Reduction to Parents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Kim S.; Wyckoff, Sarah C.; Lin, Carol Y.; Whitaker, Daniel J.; Sukalac, Thomas; Fowler, Mary Glenn

    2008-01-01

    A randomly selected nationally representative sample of 508 practicing pediatricians was surveyed in order to identify factors associated with physician delivery of primary prevention to parents about sexual risk reduction (SRR). A full 86% (n=435) reported that provision of SRR guidance is equally or more important than other guidance provided to…

  17. The Differential Effects of Social Media Sites for Promoting Cancer Risk Reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauckner, Carolyn; Whitten, Pamela

    2016-09-01

    Social media are potentially valuable tools for disseminating cancer education messages, but the differential effects of various sites on persuasive outcomes are unknown. In an effort to inform future health promotion, this research tested the effects of Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, and blogs for delivering a cancer risk reduction message. Using an experimental design, participants were randomly placed in several conditions that delivered the same message but with different forms of social media. Effects on comprehension and attitudes were examined, as they are important variables in the behavior change process. YouTube led to higher comprehension and stronger attitudes toward cancer risk reduction than Twitter, but there were no differences between other sites. Additionally, YouTube led to stronger attitudes toward cancer risk reduction as compared to Facebook, but not any other sites. These results demonstrate that, even if the message is kept constant, the form of social media used to deliver content can have an effect on persuasive outcomes. More research is needed to determine the mechanisms behind the differences found, however. Altogether, this line of research is valuable for any individuals seeking to use social media for health promotion purposes and could have direct implications for the development of cancer risk reduction campaigns.

  18. Nation-building policies in Timor-Leste: disaster risk reduction, including climate change adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercer, Jessica; Kelman, Ilan; do Rosario, Francisco; de Deus de Jesus Lima, Abilio; da Silva, Augusto; Beloff, Anna-Maija; McClean, Alex

    2014-10-01

    Few studies have explored the relationships between nation-building, disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. Focusing on small island developing states, this paper examines nation-building in Timor-Leste, a small island developing state that recently achieved independence. Nation-building in Timor-Leste is explored in the context of disaster risk reduction, which necessarily includes climate change adaptation. The study presents a synopsis of Timor-Leste's history and its nation-building efforts as well as an overview of the state of knowledge of disaster risk reduction including climate change adaptation. It also offers an analysis of significant gaps and challenges in terms of vertical and horizontal governance, large donor presence, data availability and the integration of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation for nation-building in Timor-Leste. Relevant and applicable lessons are provided from other small island developing states to assist Timor-Leste in identifying its own trajectory out of underdevelopment while it builds on existing strengths. © 2014 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2014.

  19. 78 FR 28892 - Hazardous Fire Risk Reduction, East Bay Hills, CA

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-16

    ...] Hazardous Fire Risk Reduction, East Bay Hills, CA AGENCY: Federal Emergency Management Agency, DHS. ACTION... four grant applications propose vegetation management work in 60 project areas located on land owned by... similar vegetation management work that would not be funded by the grant applications under consideration...

  20. 75 FR 32960 - Hazardous Fire Risk Reduction, East Bay Hills, CA

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-10

    ...] Hazardous Fire Risk Reduction, East Bay Hills, CA AGENCY: Federal Emergency Management Agency, DHS. ACTION... program. The Strawberry Canyon Vegetation Management Project involves the removal of eucalyptus and other... tree sprouts from the area. The Claremont Canyon Vegetation Management Project involves the removal of...

  1. Valuing Mortality Risk Reductions for Environmental Policy: A White Paper (1999)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This white paper addresses current and recent U.S. EPA practices regarding the valuation of mortality risk reductions, focusing especially on empirical estimates of the “value of a statistical life” (VSL) from stated preference and hedonic wage studies.

  2. Community-Managed Disaster Risk Reduction : Investing in Resilience. A report prepared for Cordaid

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gordon, A.N.

    2012-01-01

    Cordaid has been supporting community-managed disaster risk reduction (CMDRR) and drought cycle management (DCM) in the Horn of Africa for eight years. Many evaluations have pointed to successful outcomes but quantitative data are scarce. The aim of this study was to verify the extent to which

  3. Quantitative Cyber Risk Reduction Estimation Methodology for a Small Scada Control System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miles A. McQueen; Wayne F. Boyer; Mark A. Flynn; George A. Beitel

    2006-01-01

    We propose a new methodology for obtaining a quick quantitative measurement of the risk reduction achieved when a control system is modified with the intent to improve cyber security defense against external attackers. The proposed methodology employs a directed graph called a compromise graph, where the nodes represent stages of a potential attack and the edges represent the expected time-to-compromise for differing attacker skill levels. Time-to-compromise is modeled as a function of known vulnerabilities and attacker skill level. The methodology was used to calculate risk reduction estimates for a specific SCADA system and for a specific set of control system security remedial actions. Despite an 86% reduction in the total number of vulnerabilities, the estimated time-to-compromise was increased only by about 3 to 30% depending on target and attacker skill level.

  4. Reducing hazard vulnerability: towards a common approach between disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomalla, Frank; Downing, Tom; Spanger-Siegfried, Erika; Han, Guoyi; Rockström, Johan

    2006-03-01

    Over the past few decades, four distinct and largely independent research and policy communities--disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation, environmental management and poverty reduction--have been actively engaged in reducing socio-economic vulnerability to natural hazards. However, despite the significant efforts of these communities, the vulnerability of many individuals and communities to natural hazards continues to increase considerably. In particular, it is hydro-meteorological hazards that affect an increasing number of people and cause increasingly large economic losses. Arising from the realisation that these four communities have been largely working in isolation and enjoyed only limited success in reducing vulnerability, there is an emerging perceived need to strengthen significantly collaboration and to facilitate learning and information exchange between them. This article examines key communalities and differences between the climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction communities, and proposes three exercises that would help to structure a multi-community dialogue and learning process.

  5. Thermodynamics of negative absolute pressures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lukacs, B.; Martinas, K.

    1984-03-01

    The authors show that the possibility of negative absolute pressure can be incorporated into the axiomatic thermodynamics, analogously to the negative absolute temperature. There are examples for such systems (GUT, QCD) processing negative absolute pressure in such domains where it can be expected from thermodynamical considerations. (author)

  6. Investigating obesity risk-reduction behaviours and psychosocial factors in Chinese Americans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liou, Doreen; Bauer, Kathleen; Bai, Yeon

    2014-11-01

    The purpose of this research was to examine the attitudes, beliefs and behaviours related to obesity risk reduction in Chinese Americans. A questionnaire was administered to a convenience sample of 300 US-born and foreign-born Chinese Americans residing in the New York metropolitan area, ranging from 18 to 40 years of age. Obesity risk reduction behaviours and psychosocial variables derived from the Theory of Planned Behaviour and Health Belief Model were measured. Acculturation was assessed using a modified Suinn-Lew Asian Self-Identity Acculturation Scale. Frequency distributions were delineated and stepwise regression analyses were analysed for different acculturation groups. 65% of the respondents were female and the mean age of the sample was 26 years. Respondents indicated the most commonly practised behaviour to be eating home-cooked meals instead of restaurant-prepared foods. Perceived barriers to adopting obesity risk-reduction behaviours included convenience of consuming fast foods, cost, lack of time to prepare home-cooked meals, and the physical environment of unhealthy foods. In predicting intention to perform obesity risk-reduction behaviours, attitude was significant for 'western-identified' individuals. In 'Asian-identified' individuals, perceived behavioural control, self-efficacy and perceived benefits were salient. Nutrition educators working with Chinese Americans need to address self-efficacy in preparing plant-based, home-cooked meals and making healthy choices at fast-food restaurants with portion control. Concrete and perceived barriers such as lack of time and convenience need to be addressed in nutrition education interventions. Educators need to identify new channels and media outlets to disseminate practical, easy-to-implement behaviours for obesity risk reduction that are socially acceptable. © Royal Society for Public Health 2013.

  7. Risk of hospital admission for COPD following smoking cessation and reduction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Godtfredsen, N S; Vestbo, J; Osler, M

    2002-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Little is known about the effects of changes in smoking habits on the subsequent risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between smoking cessation and reduction and admission to hospital for COPD in a general...... by at least 50% between the two initial examinations without quitting and smokers who stopped smoking during this time were compared with continuous heavy smokers using a Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: During the follow up period 1,260 subjects (741 men and 519 women) were admitted to hospital...... for COPD. After multivariate adjustment, quitting smoking was associated with a significant reduction in the risk of hospital admission. The relative hazard (HR) was 0.57 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.33 to 0.99). Those who reduced smoking did not show a significantly lower risk of hospitalisation than...

  8. Twitter as a Potential Disaster Risk Reduction Tool. Part I: Introduction, Terminology, Research and Operational Applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Guy Paul; Yeager, Violet; Burkle, Frederick M; Subbarao, Italo

    2015-06-29

    Twitter, a popular communications platform, is identified as contributing to improved mortality and morbidity outcomes resulting from the 2013 Hattiesburg, Mississippi EF-4 Tornado. This study describes the methodology by which Twitter was investigated as a potential disaster risk reduction and management tool at the community level and the process by which the at-risk population was identified from the broader Twitter user population. By understanding how various factors contribute to the superspreading of messages, one can better optimize Twitter as an essential communications and risk reduction tool. This study introduces Parts II, III and IV which further define the technological and scientific knowledge base necessary for developing future competency base curriculum and content for Twitter assisted disaster management education and training at the community level.

  9. Grasping the hydra: the need for a holistic and systematic approach to disaster risk reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Per Becker

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available This article stresses the significance of recognising interdependencies between factors determining disaster risk in any attempts to integrate disaster risk reduction in international development cooperation. It bases its arguments on the case studies of four past projects in Sri Lanka and Tajikistan, which are scrutinised using a theoretical framework based on systems approaches. It appears that the results of ignoring interdependencies may (1cause sub-optimisation problems where the desired outcome is not reached as the factor focused on and/or the desired outcome are dependent on other factors, and (2 make it difficult or impossible to monitor and evaluate the actual effects of international development cooperation projects in disaster risk reduction.

  10. Understanding why gay men seek HIV-seroconcordant partners: intimacy and risk reduction motivations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frost, David M; Stirratt, Michael J; Ouellette, Suzanne C

    2008-06-01

    Our goal was to situate the interest of some gay men in having HIV-seroconcordant partners within the psychosocial context of concurrent motivations for intimacy and sexual risk reduction. Data were obtained from semi-structured qualitative interviews with a racially/ethnically diverse sample of 32 gay men (16 HIV-positive and 16 HIV-negative) living in New York City who sought HIV-seroconcordant partners. Thematic analysis indicated that seroconcordant partner selection was strongly motivated by a desire to reduce sexual risk as well as the pursuit of multiple forms of intimacy. Affirmative experiences in seroconcordant relationships and goals for future long-term relationships also informed men's current partner selection practices. When seeking seroconcordant partners, men reported key junctures and disjunctures between motivations for intimacy and interests in risk reduction. Our findings suggest that HIV prevention efforts will have greater relevance if they address broader motivational concerns for partner selection and serosorting, including the pursuit of intimacy.

  11. The effectiveness of coral reefs for coastal hazard risk reduction and adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrario, Filippo; Beck, Michael W.; Storlazzi, Curt D.; Micheli, Fiorenza; Shepard, Christine C.; Airoldi, Laura

    2014-01-01

    The world’s coastal zones are experiencing rapid development and an increase in storms and flooding. These hazards put coastal communities at heightened risk, which may increase with habitat loss. Here we analyse globally the role and cost effectiveness of coral reefs in risk reduction. Meta-analyses reveal that coral reefs provide substantial protection against natural hazards by reducing wave energy by an average of 97%. Reef crests alone dissipate most of this energy (86%). There are 100 million or more people who may receive risk reduction benefits from reefs or bear hazard mitigation and adaptation costs if reefs are degraded. We show that coral reefs can provide comparable wave attenuation benefits to artificial defences such as breakwaters, and reef defences can be enhanced cost effectively. Reefs face growing threats yet there is opportunity to guide adaptation and hazard mitigation investments towards reef restoration to strengthen this first line of coastal defence.

  12. Evaluation of severe accident risks and the potential for risk reduction: Grand Gulf, Unit 1. Draft for comment, February 1987

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amos, C.N.; Benjamin, A.S.; Kunsman, D.M.; Williams, D.C.; Boyd, G.J.; Lewis, S.R.; Smith, L.N.

    1987-04-01

    The Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a rebaselining of the risks to the public from a boiling water reactor with a Mark III containment (Grand Gulf, Unit 1). Emphasis was placed on determining the magnitude and character of the uncertainties, rather than focusing on a point estimate. The risk-reduction potential of a set of proposed safety option backfits was also studied, and their costs and benefits were also evaluated. It was found that the risks from internal events are generally low relative to previous studies; for example, most of the uncertainty range is lower than the point estimate of risk for the Peach Bottom plant in the Reactor Safety Study (RSS). However, certain unresolved issues cause the top of the uncertainty band to appear at a level that is comparable with the RSS point estimate. These issues include the diesel generator failure rate, iodine and cesium revolatilization after vessel breach and the possibility of reactor vessel pedestal failure caused by core debris attack. Some of the postulated safety options appear to be potentially cost effective for the Grand Gulf power plant, particularly when onsite accidents costs are included in the evaluation of benefits. Principally these include procedural modifications and relatively inexpensive hardware additions to insure core cooling in the event of a station blackout. This work supports the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's assessment of severe accidents in NUREG-1150. (author)

  13. Evidence-based disease management: its role in cardiovascular risk reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fanning, Etta L

    2004-01-01

    Cardiovascular disease remains the most pressing healthcare problem in the United States. Traditional risk factors--hypertension, obesity, and diabetes-are still unresolved issues; and new risk factors--pre-diabetes, insulin resistance, and pediatric and adolescent diabetes-have emerged. There is an urgent need to identify the risk factors for cardiovascular disease, and address risk reduction with disease management and treatment for each factor, based on qualitative and quantitative approaches for developing the evidence base for public health action. The objectives of this paper are to review (i) the burden of cardiovascular illness-morbidity, mortality, and cost; (ii) risk factors and the emerging epidemic of adolescent obesity; (iii) the challenges of attaining target endpoints; and (iv) the attributes of a successful programmatic healthcare initiative for potential impact on cardiovascular care and, eventually, public health.

  14. Eban HIV/STD risk reduction intervention: conceptual basis and procedures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-09-01

    To describe the Eban HIV/STD Risk Reduction Intervention being evaluated in the NIMH Multisite HIV/STD Prevention trial for heterosexual African American couples, including the integrated theoretical framework, the structure, core elements and procedures of the intervention, and how the content was shaped by culturally congruent concepts to address the needs of the study target population. The Eban HIV/STD Risk Reduction Intervention is designed to address multilevel individual-, interpersonal-, and community-level factors that contribute to HIV/STD transmission risk behaviors among heterosexual African American couples who are HIV serodiscordant. The Eban HIV/STD Risk Reduction Intervention employs a mixed modality, couple-based approach that is based on an integrated ecological framework incorporating social cognitive theory and uses an Afrocentric paradigm that is informed by previous evidence-based couples HIV prevention interventions. For this randomized controlled trial, African American serodiscordant couples were recruited from 4 urban sites (Atlanta, Los Angeles, New York, and Philadelphia) and were randomized to either the Eban HIV/STD Risk Reduction Intervention (treatment condition) or a Health Promotion Intervention that served as an attentional control condition. Both interventions had 4 individual couple sessions and 4 group sessions, but only the treatment condition was focused on reducing HIV/STD risk behaviors. Behavioral and biological data were collected at baseline, immediately after the intervention, and at 6 and 12 months. The theoretical framework, core elements, and content of each session are described and lessons learned from this intervention trial are discussed. An HIV prevention intervention combining couple and group sessions can be feasibly implemented with African American HIV-serodiscordant couples who remain at high risk of HIV/STD transmission. The lessons learned from the trial suggest that the participants responded very well

  15. Promoting flood risk reduction: The role of insurance in Germany and England

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surminski, Swenja; Thieken, Annegret H.

    2017-10-01

    Improving society's ability to prepare for, respond to and recover from flooding requires integrated, anticipatory flood risk management (FRM). However, most countries still focus their efforts on responding to flooding events if and when they occur rather than addressing their current and future vulnerability to flooding. Flood insurance is one mechanism that could promote a more ex ante approach to risk by supporting risk reduction activities. This paper uses an adapted version of Easton's System Theory to investigate the role of insurance for FRM in Germany and England. We introduce an anticipatory FRM framework, which allows flood insurance to be considered as part of a broader policy field. We analyze if and how flood insurance can catalyze a change toward a more anticipatory approach to FRM. In particular we consider insurance's role in influencing five key components of anticipatory FRM: risk knowledge, prevention through better planning, property-level protection measures, structural protection and preparedness (for response). We find that in both countries FRM is still a reactive, event-driven process, while anticipatory FRM remains underdeveloped. Collaboration between insurers and FRM decision-makers has already been successful, for example in improving risk knowledge and awareness, while in other areas insurance acts as a disincentive for more risk reduction action. In both countries there is evidence that insurance can play a significant role in encouraging anticipatory FRM, but this remains underutilized. Effective collaboration between insurers and government should not be seen as a cost, but as an investment to secure future insurability through flood resilience.

  16. Risk score modeling of multiple gene to gene interactions using aggregated-multifactor dimensionality reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dai Hongying

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (MDR has been widely applied to detect gene-gene (GxG interactions associated with complex diseases. Existing MDR methods summarize disease risk by a dichotomous predisposing model (high-risk/low-risk from one optimal GxG interaction, which does not take the accumulated effects from multiple GxG interactions into account. Results We propose an Aggregated-Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (A-MDR method that exhaustively searches for and detects significant GxG interactions to generate an epistasis enriched gene network. An aggregated epistasis enriched risk score, which takes into account multiple GxG interactions simultaneously, replaces the dichotomous predisposing risk variable and provides higher resolution in the quantification of disease susceptibility. We evaluate this new A-MDR approach in a broad range of simulations. Also, we present the results of an application of the A-MDR method to a data set derived from Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis patients treated with methotrexate (MTX that revealed several GxG interactions in the folate pathway that were associated with treatment response. The epistasis enriched risk score that pooled information from 82 significant GxG interactions distinguished MTX responders from non-responders with 82% accuracy. Conclusions The proposed A-MDR is innovative in the MDR framework to investigate aggregated effects among GxG interactions. New measures (pOR, pRR and pChi are proposed to detect multiple GxG interactions.

  17. Risk score modeling of multiple gene to gene interactions using aggregated-multifactor dimensionality reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (MDR) has been widely applied to detect gene-gene (GxG) interactions associated with complex diseases. Existing MDR methods summarize disease risk by a dichotomous predisposing model (high-risk/low-risk) from one optimal GxG interaction, which does not take the accumulated effects from multiple GxG interactions into account. Results We propose an Aggregated-Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (A-MDR) method that exhaustively searches for and detects significant GxG interactions to generate an epistasis enriched gene network. An aggregated epistasis enriched risk score, which takes into account multiple GxG interactions simultaneously, replaces the dichotomous predisposing risk variable and provides higher resolution in the quantification of disease susceptibility. We evaluate this new A-MDR approach in a broad range of simulations. Also, we present the results of an application of the A-MDR method to a data set derived from Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis patients treated with methotrexate (MTX) that revealed several GxG interactions in the folate pathway that were associated with treatment response. The epistasis enriched risk score that pooled information from 82 significant GxG interactions distinguished MTX responders from non-responders with 82% accuracy. Conclusions The proposed A-MDR is innovative in the MDR framework to investigate aggregated effects among GxG interactions. New measures (pOR, pRR and pChi) are proposed to detect multiple GxG interactions. PMID:23294634

  18. Risk score modeling of multiple gene to gene interactions using aggregated-multifactor dimensionality reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Hongying; Charnigo, Richard J; Becker, Mara L; Leeder, J Steven; Motsinger-Reif, Alison A

    2013-01-08

    Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (MDR) has been widely applied to detect gene-gene (GxG) interactions associated with complex diseases. Existing MDR methods summarize disease risk by a dichotomous predisposing model (high-risk/low-risk) from one optimal GxG interaction, which does not take the accumulated effects from multiple GxG interactions into account. We propose an Aggregated-Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (A-MDR) method that exhaustively searches for and detects significant GxG interactions to generate an epistasis enriched gene network. An aggregated epistasis enriched risk score, which takes into account multiple GxG interactions simultaneously, replaces the dichotomous predisposing risk variable and provides higher resolution in the quantification of disease susceptibility. We evaluate this new A-MDR approach in a broad range of simulations. Also, we present the results of an application of the A-MDR method to a data set derived from Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis patients treated with methotrexate (MTX) that revealed several GxG interactions in the folate pathway that were associated with treatment response. The epistasis enriched risk score that pooled information from 82 significant GxG interactions distinguished MTX responders from non-responders with 82% accuracy. The proposed A-MDR is innovative in the MDR framework to investigate aggregated effects among GxG interactions. New measures (pOR, pRR and pChi) are proposed to detect multiple GxG interactions.

  19. Development of the Motivation to Change Lifestyle and Health Behaviours for Dementia Risk Reduction Scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarang Kim

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Background and Aims: It is not yet understood how attitudes concerning dementia risk may affect motivation to change health behaviours and lifestyle. This study was designed to develop a reliable and valid theory-based measure to understand beliefs underpinning the lifestyle and health behavioural changes needed for dementia risk reduction. Methods: 617 participants aged ≥50 years completed a theory-based questionnaire, namely, the Motivation to Change Lifestyle and Health Behaviours for Dementia Risk Reduction (MCLHB-DRR scale. The MCLHB-DRR consists of 53 items, reflecting seven subscales of the Health Belief Model. Results: Confirmatory factor analysis was performed and revealed that a seven-factor solution with 27 items fitted the data (comparative fit index = 0.920, root-mean-square error of approximation = 0.047 better than the original 53 items. Internal reliability (α = 0.608-0.864 and test-retest reliability (α = 0.552-0.776 were moderate to high. Measurement of invariance across gender and age was also demonstrated. Conclusions: These results propose that the MCLHB-DRR is a useful tool in assessing the beliefs and attitudes of males and females aged ≥50 years towards dementia risk reduction. This measure can be used in the development and evaluation of interventions aimed at dementia prevention.

  20. Anxiety sensitivity risk reduction in smokers: A randomized control trial examining effects on panic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Norman B; Raines, Amanda M; Allan, Nicholas P; Zvolensky, Michael J

    2016-02-01

    Empirical evidence has identified several risk factors for panic psychopathology, including smoking and anxiety sensitivity (AS; the fear of anxiety-related sensations). Smokers with elevated AS are therefore a particularly vulnerable population for panic. Yet, there is little knowledge about how to reduce risk of panic among high AS smokers. The present study prospectively evaluated panic outcomes within the context of a controlled randomized risk reduction program for smokers. Participants (N = 526) included current smokers who all received a state-of-the-art smoking cessation intervention with approximately half randomized to the AS reduction intervention termed Panic-smoking Program (PSP). The primary hypotheses focus on examining the effects of a PSP on panic symptoms in the context of this vulnerable population. Consistent with prediction, there was a significant effect of treatment condition on AS, such that individuals in the PSP condition, compared to those in the control condition, demonstrated greater decreases in AS throughout treatment and the follow-up period. In addition, PSP treatment resulted in lower rates of panic-related symptomatology. Moreover, mediation analyses indicated that reductions in AS resulted in lower panic symptoms. The present study provides the first empirical evidence that brief, targeted psychoeducational interventions can mitigate panic risk among smokers. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Hombre Seguro (Safe Men): a sexual risk reduction intervention for male clients of female sex workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitpitan, Eileen V; Chavarin, Claudia V; Semple, Shirley J; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos; Strathdee, Steffanie A; Patterson, Thomas L

    2014-05-20

    Male clients of female sex workers (FSWs) are at risk of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs). We conducted a two-arm randomized controlled trial to test the efficacy of a sexual risk reduction intervention for male clients of FSWs in Tijuana, Mexico. Male clients of FSWs who were at least 18, were HIV-negative at baseline, and reported recent unprotected sex with FSWs were randomized to the Hombre Seguro sexual risk reduction intervention, or a time-attention didactic control condition. Each condition lasted approximately one hour. Participants underwent interviewer-administered surveys and testing for HIV and other STIs at baseline, and at 4, 8, and 12 month follow-ups. Combined HIV/STI incidence and unprotected vaginal and anal sex acts with FSWs were the primary outcomes. A total of 400 participants were randomized to one of the two conditions. Analyses indicated that randomization was successful; there were no significant differences between the participants in the two conditions at baseline. Average follow-up was 84% across both conditions. This is the first study to test the efficacy of a sexual risk reduction intervention for male clients of FSWs using the rigor of a randomized controlled trial. NCT01280838, Date of registration: January 19, 2011.

  2. "Absolute" sterility and "absolute" freedom from particle contamination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knapp, J Z

    1998-01-01

    Until the recent past, sterility of an injectable product was only discussed in absolute terms. Any description of sterility other than as an absolute could simply not be envisioned. While dealing in absolute yes/no statements is philosophically satisfying, these yes/no statements can't accommodate all real world scientific problems. Among these problems is the sterility problems faced in the mass production of injectable compounds. Many descriptions of procedures employed to achieve sterility in parenteral production batches were reported in the literature. The theoretical framework that could unite the widespread observations and practices into practical methodology was missing until recently. Production line control of the sterility of injectable products was essentially based on gut evaluations. The present achievement of rational, production line control of product sterility is based on the recognition that product sterility could not be simply regarded as a sharply edged yes/no affair. The present rational control is based on the fact that the sterility of a product is determined by the degree of contamination in the product prior to sterilization and to the parameters of the sterilization process. The end result of the sterilization process is now described as a probabalistic reduction of the initial contamination. The essential laboratory measurements on which this conclusion was based is due to Pflug (1-3). He assembled a theoretical framework, based on experimental data, that characterizes the sterility achieved in an injectable product with a single number. The end result of the sterilization process is now described as a probabalistic reduction of the initial contamination. As in many disciplines, the ability to achieve an objective evaluation of this important attribute provided the basis for scientific analysis, improved control and thus improved production and reduced cost. An equivalent framework is essential for the communication and

  3. Schizophrenia--A High-Risk Factor for Suicides: Clues to Risk Reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldwell, Constance B.; Gottesman, Irving I.

    1992-01-01

    Notes that suicide is chief cause of premature death among schizophrenic persons, with lifetime incidence of suicide for patients with schizophrenia at 10-13% compared to general population estimate of 1%. Discusses salient risk factors for suicide in schizophrenics and types of especially vulnerable patients identified by research. Notes that…

  4. A practical approach to assess depression risk and to guide risk reduction strategies in later life

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Almeida, O.P.; Alfonso, H.; Pirkis, J; Kerse, N.; Sim, M.; Flicker, L.; Snowdon, J.; Draper, B.; Byrne, G.; Goldney, R.; Lautenschlager, N.T.; Stocks, N.; Scazufca, M.; Huisman, M.; Araya, R.; Pfaff, J.

    2011-01-01

    Background: Many factors have been associated with the onset and maintenance of depressive symptoms in later life, although this knowledge is yet to be translated into significant health gains for the population. This study gathered information about common modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors

  5. Exercise for fall risk reduction in community-dwelling older adults: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, Catherine M; Sran, Meena M; Harrison, Elizabeth L

    2008-01-01

    To evaluate the influence of exercise on falls and fall risk reduction in community-dwelling older adults and to present an updated synthesis of outcome measures for the assessment of fall risk in community-dwelling older adults. A systematic review was performed, considering English-language articles published from 2000 to 2006 and accessible through MEDLINE, CINAHL, PEDro, EMBASE, and/or AMED. Included were randomized controlled clinical trials (RCTs) that used an exercise or physical activity intervention and involved participants over age 50. Screening and methodological quality for internal validity were conducted by two independent reviewers. The search retrieved 156 abstracts; 22 articles met the internal validity criteria. Both individualized and group exercise programmes were found to be effective in reducing falls and fall risk. The optimal type, frequency, and dose of exercise to achieve a positive effect have not been determined. A variety of outcome measures have been used to measure fall risk, especially for balance. Falls and fall risk can be reduced with exercise interventions in the community-dwelling elderly, although the most effective exercise variables are unknown. Future studies in populations with comorbidities known to increase fall risk will help determine optimal, condition-specific fall-prevention programmes. Poor balance is a key risk factor for falls; therefore, the best measure of this variable should be selected when evaluating patients at risk of falling.

  6. Ketamine for Treatment of Suicidal Ideation and Reduction of Risk for Suicidal Behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mallick, Faryal; McCullumsmith, Cheryl B

    2016-06-01

    Ketamine, an NMDA receptor antagonist with efficacy as a rapid anti-depressant, has early evidence for action to reduce suicidal ideation. This review will explore several important questions that arise from these studies. First, how do we measure reductions in suicidal ideation that occur over minutes to hours? Second, are the reductions in suicidal ideation after ketamine treatment solely a result of its rapid anti-depressant effect? Third, is ketamine only effective in reducing suicidal ideation in patients with mood disorders? Fourth, could ketamine's action lead us to a greater understanding of the neurobiology of suicidal processes? Last, do the reductions in depression and suicidal ideation after ketamine treatment translate into decreased risk for suicidal behavior? Our review concludes that ketamine treatment can be seen as a double-edged sword, clinically to help provide treatment for acutely suicidal patients and experimentally to explore the neurobiological nature of suicidal ideation and suicidal behavior.

  7. Communication products for the Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario: Chapter K in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Suzanne C.

    2013-01-01

    Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR), like its predecessor the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project, has a mission to increase the use of science by decision-makers of all kinds. Thus, an important part of any SAFRR scenario is development of products that enhance usability of the science. In this tsunami scenario, the focus has been on development of three kinds of products: products that augment typical outputs of scientific studies, such as reports, to make the results of the scenario more relevant and usable to nonscientists; products that distill local impacts and allow users in specific locales to identify which aspects of the broad regional study apply to their local area; and

  8. Thermospheric Density Fluctuations Derived from the Atmospheric Neutral Density Experiment Risk Reduction Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholas, A. C.; Budzien, S. A.; Healy, L.; Davis, M.

    2008-12-01

    The Atmospheric Neutral Density Experiment (ANDE) Risk Reduction flight was launched on Dec 9, 2006 and deployed into orbit by the Space Shuttle Discovery on December 21, 2006. The primary mission objective is to test the deployment mechanism from the Shuttle for the ANDE flight in mid 2009. Scientific objectives of the ANDE risk reduction flight include: monitor total neutral density along the orbit for improved orbit determination of resident space objects, monitor the spin rate and orientation of the spacecraft, and provide a test object for polarimetry studies. The two ANDERR spacecraft decayed on December 25, 2007 and May 21, 2008, atmospheric densities derived from observations of the ANDERR spacecraft will be presented and compared to atmospheric models and drivers.

  9. Semaglutide, reduction in HbA1c and the risk of diabetic retinopathy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vilsbøll, Tina; Bain, Stephen C; Leiter, Lawrence A

    2018-01-01

    were conducted. These included subgroup analyses to identify at-risk patients and a mediation analysis with initial change in HbA1c (percentage-points at Week 16) as a covariate, to examine the role of the magnitude of reduction in HbA1c as an intermediate factor on risk of DRC. RESULTS......: There was no imbalance in DR adverse events across the SUSTAIN 1-5 and Japanese trials. The majority of the effect with semaglutide versus placebo in SUSTAIN 6 may be attributed to the magnitude and rapidity of HbA1c reduction during the first 16 weeks of treatment in patients with pre-existing DR, poor glycaemic...

  10. Relationship among Food-Safety Knowledge, Beliefs, and Risk-Reduction Behavior in University Students in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takeda, Sayaka; Akamatsu, Rie; Horiguchi, Itsuko; Marui, Eiji

    2011-01-01

    Objective: To identify whether university students who have both food-safety knowledge and beliefs perform risk-reduction behaviors. Design: Cross-sectional research using a questionnaire that included food-safety knowledge, perceptions, risk-reduction behavior, stages for the selection of safer food based on the Transtheoretical Model, and…

  11. Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation—A Sustainable Development Systems Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tom R. Burns

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This article considers the concepts of sustainability and sustainable development in relation to disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. We conceptualize sustainability from a social systemic perspective, that is, from a perspective that encompasses the multiple functionalities of a social system and their interrelationships in particular environmental contexts. The systems perspective is applied in our consideration and analysis of disaster risk reduction (DRR, climate change adaptation (CCA, and sustainable development (SD. Section “Sustainability and Sustainable Development” introduces briefly sustainability and sustainable development, followed by a brief presentation of the theory of complex social systems (Section “Social System Model”. The theory conceptualizes interdependent subsystems, their multiple functionalities, and the agential and systemic responses to internal and external stressors on a social system. Section “Case Studies of Response to Stressors” considers disaster risk reduction (DRR and climate change adaptation (CCA, emerging in response to one or more systemic stressors. It illustrates these with disaster risk reduction in the cases of food and chemical security regulation in the EU. CCA is illustrated by initiatives and developments on the island of Gotland, Sweden and in the Gothenburg Metropolitan area, which go beyond a limited CCA perspective, taking into account long-term sustainability issues. Section “Sustainable Development as a Societal Development System” discusses the limitations of DRR and CCA, not only their technical limitations but economic, socio-cultural, and political limitations, as informed from a sustainability perspective. It is argued that DRRs are only partial subsystems and must be considered and assessed in the context of a more encompassing systemic perspective. Part of the discussion is focused on the distinction between sustainable and non-sustainable DRRs and

  12. A CONCEPTUAL DISASTER RISK REDUCTION FRAMEWORK FOR HEALTH AND SAFETY HAZARDS IN THE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY

    OpenAIRE

    Amir S. GOHARDANI; Folke BJÖRK

    2013-01-01

    The health and safety hazard status of construction workers is constantly challenged by the projects in the built environment. In this article, various aspects of health and safety hazards for construction workers have been reviewed and investigated through a disaster risk reduction prism. This approach has further led to the perception of glancing at the construction sector as an ongoing disaster zone and equally provides a new management perspective. From this perspective, the occurrence of...

  13. Ethical Responsibility of Governance for Integrating Disaster Risk Reduction with Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkash Gupta, Surya

    2015-04-01

    The development in the public as well as the private sectors is controlled and regulated, directly or indirectly by the governments at federal, provincial and local levels. If this development goes haphazard and unplanned, without due considerations to environmental constraints and potential hazards; it is likely to cause disasters or may get affected by disasters. Therefore, it becomes an ethical responsibility of the people involved in governance sector to integrate disaster risk reduction with development in their administrative territories through enforcement of appropriate policies, guidelines and regulatory mechanisms. Such mechanisms should address the social, scientific, economic, environmental, and legal requirements that play significant role in planning, implementation of developmental activities as well as disaster management. The paper focuses on defining the ethical responsibilities for the governance sector for integrating disaster risk reduction with development. It highlights the ethical issues with examples from two case studies, one from the Uttarakhand state and the other Odhisa state in India. The case studies illustrates how does it make a difference in disaster risk reduction if the governments own or do not own ethical responsibilities. The paper considers two major disaster events, flash floods in Uttarakhand state and Cyclone Phailin in Odhisa state, that happened during the year 2013. The study points out that it makes a great difference in terms of consequences and response to disasters when ethical responsibilities are owned by the governance sector. The papers attempts to define these ethical responsibilities for integrating disaster risk reduction with development so that the governments can be held accountable for their acts or non-actions.

  14. Advanced Risk Reduction Tool (ARRT) Special Case Study Report: Science and Engineering Technical Assessments (SETA) Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirsch, Paul J.; Hayes, Jane; Zelinski, Lillian

    2000-01-01

    This special case study report presents the Science and Engineering Technical Assessments (SETA) team's findings for exploring the correlation between the underlying models of Advanced Risk Reduction Tool (ARRT) relative to how it identifies, estimates, and integrates Independent Verification & Validation (IV&V) activities. The special case study was conducted under the provisions of SETA Contract Task Order (CTO) 15 and the approved technical approach documented in the CTO-15 Modification #1 Task Project Plan.

  15. Public risk-reduction measures: cost-effectiveness from a global point-of-view

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliveira, L.F.S. de; Motta Barros, E.B. da; Fleming, P.V.; Rosa, L.P.

    1985-05-01

    A review of systemic or global approach to cost-effectiveness analysis of risk-reduction measures is presented, and its advantages and limitations are discussed. The method is applied for problem of the cost-effectiveness of increasing the Angra 3 reactor containment wall thickness from 60cm to 180cm thick, in case of a direct commercial aircraft crash on it. (Author) [pt

  16. Prediction of fall risk reduction as measured by dynamic gait index in individuals with unilateral vestibular hypofunction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Courtney D; Schubert, Michael C; Herdman, Susan J

    2004-09-01

    To determine the effect of vestibular rehabilitation on reduction of fall risk in individuals with unilateral vestibular hypofunction and to identify those factors that predict fall risk reduction. Retrospective chart review. Tertiary referral center. Forty-seven patients with unilateral vestibular hypofunction, aged 28 to 86 years, who were at risk for falls on initial assessment. All patients underwent vestibular rehabilitation including adaptation exercises, designed to improve gaze stability, and gait and balance exercises. Fall risk (Dynamic Gait Index), visual acuity during head movements (Dynamic Visual Acuity), and subjective complaints were measured initially, at 2-week intervals, and at completion of physical therapy. As a group, the patients had significantly reduced risk for falls (p older (> or = 65 yr) and younger (adults showed significant reductions in fall risk with vestibular rehabilitation (p older adults remained at risk for falls at discharge compared with young adults (45% versus 11%). Initial Dynamic Gait Index and Dynamic Visual Acuity scores predicted fall risk reduction in patients with unilateral vestibular hypofunction. A model was developed using initial Dynamic Gait Index and Dynamic Visual Acuity scores to predict fall risk reduction. Vestibular rehabilitation is effective in significantly reducing fall risk in individuals with unilateral vestibular deficit. The model predicts fall risk reduction with good sensitivity (77%) and specificity (90%).

  17. A Synergy Framework for the integration of Earth Observation technologies into Disaster Risk Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaetani, Francesco; Petiteville, Ivan; Pisano, Francesco; Rudari, Roberto; St Pierre, Luc

    2015-04-01

    Earth observations and space-based applications have seen a considerable advance in the last decade, and such advances should find their way in applications related to DRR, climate change and sustainable development, including in the indicators to monitor advances in these areas. The post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction, as adopted by the 3rd WCDRR is a action-oriented framework for disaster risk reduction that builds on modalities of cooperation linking local, national, regional and global efforts. Earth observations from ground and space platforms and related applications will play a key role in facilitating the implementation of the HFA2 and represent a unique platform to observe and assess how risks have changed in recent years, as well as to track the reduction in the level of exposure of communities. The proposed white paper focuses mainly on Earth Observation from space but it also addresses the use of other sources of data ( airborne, marine, in-situ, socio-economic and model outputs) in combination to remote sensing data. Earth observations (EO) and Space-based technologies can play a crucial role in contributing to the generation of relevant information to support informed decision-making regarding risk and vulnerability reduction and to address the underlying factors of disaster risk. For example, long series of Earth observation data collected over more than 30 years already contribute to track changes in the environment and in particular, environmental degradation around the world. Earth observation data is key to the work of the scientific community. Whether due to inadequate land-use policies, lack of awareness or understanding regarding such degradation, or inadequate use of natural resources including water and the oceans; Earth observation technologies are now routinely employed by many Ministries of Environment and Natural Resources worldwide to monitor the extent of degradation and a basis to design and enact new environmental

  18. Takotsubo Cardiomyopathy: A Long Term Follow-up Shows Benefit with Risk Factor Reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Koroush Khalighi

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Only sparse data was available on long-term of Takotusbo Cardiomyopathy (TC. Previous studies suggested prognosis is not necessarily benign. We report the long-term follow-up of 12 TC patients actively managed with risk factor reduction. Retrospective analysis of all patients diagnosed with TC at our hospital between 1998 and 2010. We identified 12 patients with TC among 1651 cases of emergent left heart catheterization over 12 years. Mean follow-up time was 8.3 ± 3.6 years. All were female, 87% had hypertension, 25% had history of Coronary Artery Disease (CAD, 67% had hyperlipidemia, 44% had some preceding emotional trauma, and 44% had some physical/physiological stress. Previous studies have shown that over 50% of TC patients experience future cardiac events, and 10% have a recurrence of TC. Patients were prescribed therapeutic lifestyle changes (TLC and guideline directed medical therapy (GDMT for aggressive risk factor reduction. TLC included diet, exercise, and cardiac rehabilitation. GDMT often included aspirin, beta-blockers, ACE-inhibitors, and statins. Follow-up echocardiograms showed recovery and maintenance of the ejection fraction. There was no cardiac mortality and no recurrences of TC. Aggressive risk factor reduction with TLC and GDMT may be effective in improving the long term outcomes of patients with TC.

  19. Participatory three dimensional mapping for the preparation of landslide disaster risk reduction program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusratmoko, Eko; Wibowo, Adi; Cholid, Sofyan; Pin, Tjiong Giok

    2017-07-01

    This paper presents the results of applications of participatory three dimensional mapping (P3DM) method for fqcilitating the people of Cibanteng' village to compile a landslide disaster risk reduction program. Physical factors, as high rainfall, topography, geology and land use, and coupled with the condition of demographic and social-economic factors, make up the Cibanteng region highly susceptible to landslides. During the years 2013-2014 has happened 2 times landslides which caused economic losses, as a result of damage to homes and farmland. Participatory mapping is one part of the activities of community-based disaster risk reduction (CBDRR)), because of the involvement of local communities is a prerequisite for sustainable disaster risk reduction. In this activity, participatory mapping method are done in two ways, namely participatory two-dimensional mapping (P2DM) with a focus on mapping of disaster areas and participatory three-dimensional mapping (P3DM) with a focus on the entire territory of the village. Based on the results P3DM, the ability of the communities in understanding the village environment spatially well-tested and honed, so as to facilitate the preparation of the CBDRR programs. Furthermore, the P3DM method can be applied to another disaster areas, due to it becomes a medium of effective dialogue between all levels of involved communities.

  20. From risk and harm reduction to decriminalizing abortion: The Uruguayan model for women's rights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briozzo, Leonel

    2016-08-01

    To describe public policies, social actions, particularly those of obstetricians/gynecologists, and changes in abortion-related legislation in the different historical periods between 1990 and 2015, and to analyze temporal correlations with a reduction in maternal mortality. The 1990-2015 period was divided into three different stages to permit evaluation of the legislation, health regulations, healthcare system, and professional practices related to the care provided in cases of unsafe abortion: 1990-2001, characterized by illegality and the healthcare system's denial of abortion; 2001-2012, when the model for reducing the risk and harm of unsafe abortions was developed; and 2012-2015, when abortion was finally decriminalized. Changes in public policies and expansion of the risk reduction model coincided with changes in the social perception of abortion and a decrease in maternal mortality and abortion rates, probably due to a set of public policies that led to the decriminalization of abortion in 2012. Changes in public policies and health actions such as the model for reducing the risk and harm of unsafe abortions coincided with a marked reduction in abortion-related maternal mortality. The challenges still to be faced include managing second trimester abortions, ensuring the creation of multidisciplinary teams, and offering postabortion contraception. © 2016 The Authors. Published by International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Alcoholism Risk Reduction in France: A Modernised Approach Related to Alcohol Misuse Disorders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georges Brousse

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available During many years in France, risk reduction strategies for substance abuse concerned prevention strategies in the general population or interventions near users of illicit substances. In this spirit, the reduction of consumption only concerned opiate addicts. With regard to alcohol, the prevention messages relative to controlled consumption were difficult to transmit because of the importance of this product in the culture of the country. In addition, methods of treatment of alcoholism rested on the dogma of abstinence. Several factors have recently led to an evolution in the treatment of alcohol use disorders integrating the reduction of consumption in strategies. Strategies for reducing consumption should aim for consumption below recommended thresholds (two drinks per day for women, three for the men or, at least, in that direction. It must also be supported by pharmacotherapy and psychotherapy, which offer possibilities. Failure to manage reduction will allow the goals to be revisited and to reconsider abstinence. Finally this evolution or revolution is a new paradigm carried in particular by a pragmatic approach of the disease and new treatments. The aims of this article are to give elements of comprehension relating to the evolution of the practices in France in prevention and treatment of alcohol use disorders and in particular with regard to the reduction of consumption.

  2. A text message intervention for alcohol risk reduction among community college students: TMAP.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bock, Beth C; Barnett, Nancy P; Thind, Herpreet; Rosen, Rochelle; Walaska, Kristen; Traficante, Regina; Foster, Robert; Deutsch, Chris; Fava, Joseph L; Scott-Sheldon, Lori A J

    2016-12-01

    Students at community colleges comprise nearly half of all U.S. college students and show higher risk of heavy drinking and related consequences compared to students at 4-year colleges, but no alcohol safety programs currently target this population. To examine the feasibility, acceptability, and preliminary efficacy of an alcohol risk-reduction program delivered through text messaging designed for community college (CC) students. Heavy drinking adult CC students (N=60) were enrolled and randomly assigned to the six-week active intervention (Text Message Alcohol Program: TMAP) or a control condition of general motivational (not alcohol related) text messages. TMAP text messages consisted of alcohol facts, strategies to limit alcohol use and related risks, and motivational messages. Assessments were conducted at baseline, week 6 (end of treatment) and week 12 (follow up). Most participants (87%) completed all follow up assessments. Intervention messages received an average rating of 6.8 (SD=1.5) on a 10-point scale. At week six, TMAP participants were less likely than controls to report heavy drinking and negative alcohol consequences. The TMAP group also showed significant increases in self-efficacy to resist drinking in high risk situations between baseline and week six, with no such increase among controls. Results were maintained through the week 12 follow up. The TMAP alcohol risk reduction program was feasible and highly acceptable indicated by high retention rates through the final follow up assessment and good ratings for the text message content. Reductions in multiple outcomes provide positive indications of intervention efficacy. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  3. Sheltering risks: Implementation of harm reduction in homeless shelters during an overdose emergency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, Bruce; Barber, Katrina; Pauly, Bernadette Bernie

    2018-03-01

    The current opioid overdose crisis in North America is heightening awareness of the need for and the challenges of implementing harm reduction, notably within complex and diverse settings such as homeless shelters. In this paper, we explore the implementation of harm reduction in homeless shelters during an emerging overdose emergency. The objective of this qualitative study was to identify and understand micro-environment level factors within emergency shelters responding to homelessness and substance use, and the macro-level influences that produce and sustain structural vulnerabilities. We conducted eight focus groups with a total of 49 participants during an emerging overdose emergency. These included shelter residents (n = 23), shelter staff (n = 13), and harm reduction workers (n = 13). The findings illustrate the challenges of implementing an overdose response when substance use is prohibited onsite, without an expectation of abstinence, and where harm reduction services are limited to the distribution of supplies. In this context, harm reduction is partially implemented and incomplete. Shelters can be a site of risks and trauma for residents and staff due to experiencing, witnessing, and responding to overdoses. The current overdose crisis heightens the challenges of implementing harm reduction, particularly within complex and diverse settings such as homeless shelters. When harm reduction is limited to the distribution of supplies such as clean equipment and naloxone, important principles of engagement and the development of trust necessary to the provision of services are overlooked with negative implications for service users. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Meditation and Cardiovascular Risk Reduction: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Glenn N; Lange, Richard A; Bairey-Merz, C Noel; Davidson, Richard J; Jamerson, Kenneth; Mehta, Puja K; Michos, Erin D; Norris, Keith; Ray, Indranill Basu; Saban, Karen L; Shah, Tina; Stein, Richard; Smith, Sidney C

    2017-09-28

    Despite numerous advances in the prevention and treatment of atherosclerosis, cardiovascular disease remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality. Novel and inexpensive interventions that can contribute to the primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease are of interest. Numerous studies have reported on the benefits of meditation. Meditation instruction and practice is widely accessible and inexpensive and may thus be a potential attractive cost-effective adjunct to more traditional medical therapies. Accordingly, this American Heart Association scientific statement systematically reviewed the data on the potential benefits of meditation on cardiovascular risk. Neurophysiological and neuroanatomical studies demonstrate that meditation can have long-standing effects on the brain, which provide some biological plausibility for beneficial consequences on the physiological basal state and on cardiovascular risk. Studies of the effects of meditation on cardiovascular risk have included those investigating physiological response to stress, smoking cessation, blood pressure reduction, insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome, endothelial function, inducible myocardial ischemia, and primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease. Overall, studies of meditation suggest a possible benefit on cardiovascular risk, although the overall quality and, in some cases, quantity of study data are modest. Given the low costs and low risks of this intervention, meditation may be considered as an adjunct to guideline-directed cardiovascular risk reduction by those interested in this lifestyle modification, with the understanding that the benefits of such intervention remain to be better established. Further research on meditation and cardiovascular risk is warranted. Such studies, to the degree possible, should utilize randomized study design, be adequately powered to meet the primary study outcome, strive to achieve low drop-out rates, include long

  5. Fire risk reduction through a community-based risk assessment: reflections from Makola Market, Accra, Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oteng-Ababio, Martin; Sarpong, Akwasi Owusu

    2015-07-01

    This paper explores the level of vulnerability to the hazard of fire that exists in Makola Market in Accra, Ghana, and assesses how this threat can be reduced through a community-based risk assessment. It examines the perceptions of both market-stall occupants and primary stakeholders regarding the hazard of fire, and analyses the availability of local assets (coping strategies) with which to address the challenge. Through an evaluation of past instances of fire, as well as in-depth key stakeholder interviews, field visits, and observations, the study produces a detailed hazard map of the market. It goes on to recommend that policymakers consider short-to-long-term interventions to reduce the degree of risk. By foregrounding the essence of holistic and integrated planning, the paper calls for the incorporation of disaster mitigation measures in the overall urban planning process and for the strict enforcement of relevant building and fire safety codes by responsible public agencies. © 2015 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2015.

  6. Flexion-Type Supracondylar Humeral Fractures: Ulnar Nerve Injury Increases Risk of Open Reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flynn, Kelly; Shah, Apurva S; Brusalis, Christopher M; Leddy, Kelly; Flynn, John M

    2017-09-06

    .4-fold increase in the odds of open reduction. The presence of an ulnar nerve injury at presentation resulted in an additional 6.7-fold higher risk of open reduction among flexion-type supracondylar humeral fractures. Patients and families should be counseled regarding the high rate of open reduction for flexion-type supracondylar humeral fractures, particularly those with an associated ulnar nerve injury. Therapeutic Level III. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

  7. Living with risk. A global review of disaster reduction initiatives. Preliminary version

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    In recent years the world has witnessed an interminable succession of disasters - floods, storms, earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions and wildfires that have claimed many thousands of lives, caused material losses in the tens of billions of dollars, and inflicted a terrible toll on developing countries in particular, where disasters divert attention and resources needed desperately to escape poverty. Communities will always face natural hazards, but today's disasters are often generated by, or at least exacerbated by, human activities. At the most dramatic level, human activities are changing the natural balance of the earth, interfering as never before with the atmosphere, the oceans, the polar ice caps, the forest cover and the natural pillars that make our world a livable home. But we are also putting ourselves in harm's way in less visible ways. At no time in human history have so many people lived in cities clustered around seismically active areas. Destitution and demographic pressure have led more people than ever before to live in flood plains or in areas prone to landslides. Poor land-use planning; environmental mismanagement; and a lack of regulatory mechanisms both increase the risk and exacerbate the effects of disasters. Living with risk: a global review of disaster reduction is the first comprehensive effort by the United Nations system to take stock of disaster reduction initiatives throughout the world. Coordinated by the secretariat of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR), the report discusses current disaster trends, assesses policies aimed at mitigating the impact of disasters, and offers examples of successful initiatives. It also recommends that risk reduction be integrated into sustainable development at all levels - global, national and local. Most of all, Living with risk shows that we are far from helpless in the face of natural hazards. Early warning and risk reduction measures have been important factors in

  8. Re: Hormonal contraception use among teenagers linked to depression - Yet another example of a never ending confusion between relative and absolute risks?

    OpenAIRE

    Kritsotakis, E.

    2016-01-01

    Millions of women worldwide use hormonal contraception (HC) and it is recognised that some women report that they experience mood changes associated with HC (1) . But is there an increased frequency (or risk) of depression among women using HC compared to non-users? If so, would this imply a causal link between HC and depression? Would it then be reasonable to expect that stopping contraceptive use would reverse the symptoms in many women who suffer from depression?

  9. Mainstreaming risk reduction in urban planning and housing: a challenge for international aid organisations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wamsler, Christine

    2006-06-01

    The effects of 'natural' disasters in cities can be worse than in other environments, with poor and marginalised urban communities in the developing world being most at risk. To avoid post-disaster destruction and the forced eviction of these communities, proactive and preventive urban planning, including housing, is required. This paper examines current perceptions and practices within international aid organisations regarding the existing and potential roles of urban planning as a tool for reducing disaster risk. It reveals that urban planning confronts many of the generic challenges to mainstreaming risk reduction in development planning. However, it faces additional barriers. The main reasons for the identified lack of integration of urban planning and risk reduction are, first, the marginal position of both fields within international aid organisations, and second, an incompatibility between the respective professional disciplines. To achieve better integration, a conceptual shift from conventional to non-traditional urban planning is proposed. This paper suggests related operative measures and initiatives to achieve this change.

  10. GEO activities towards improved Geophysical monitoring. A key input to Disaster Risk Reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achache, J.; Rum, G.

    2007-05-01

    GEO has been established in 2005 with the main objective to put in place a Global, Coordinated, Comprehensive and Sustained System of Observing Systems (GEOSS) to serve 9 Social Benefit Areas, among which Disaster Risk Reduction. The paper will first set up the reference GEO framework, through a brief description of GEOSS key features, architectural functions and capacity building, and then will recall the value of the Geophysical observations, coming both from in situ and remote (satellite) systems, and, even more important, of their integration. GEO activities related to Geophysical monitoring and the use of related observation to foster social benefits in the Disaster Risk Reduction area will then be shortly described, together with the on-going key actions, including specific examples on key scientific/technical and data sharing aspects associated to GEOSS implementation. Special attention will be devoted on how Capacity Building strategy and activities are addressed through GEOSS development, building on infrastructure and programs under consolidation within GEO framework, such as the GEOSS Information collection and dissemination systems under development (GEONETCast, GEO Web Portal, GEO Clearinghouse) and the UN programs such as SPIDER (SPace based Information for Disaster management and Emergency Response) and UNOSAT. The paper will provide recommendations on the way forward for the implementation of Disaster Risk Management provisions as an integral part of sustainable development, also with the objective of creating within GEO a supporting framework to UNDP and World Bank activities on Risk Identification and Assessment.

  11. Population Modeling of Modified Risk Tobacco Products Accounting for Smoking Reduction and Gradual Transitions of Relative Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poland, Bill; Teischinger, Florian

    2017-11-01

    As suggested by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Modified Risk Tobacco Product (MRTP) Applications Draft Guidance, we developed a statistical model based on public data to explore the effect on population mortality of an MRTP resulting in reduced conventional cigarette smoking. Many cigarette smokers who try an MRTP persist as dual users while smoking fewer conventional cigarettes per day (CPD). Lower-CPD smokers have lower mortality risk based on large cohort studies. However, with little data on the effect of smoking reduction on mortality, predictive modeling is needed. We generalize prior assumptions of gradual, exponential decay of Excess Risk (ER) of death, relative to never-smokers, after quitting or reducing CPD. The same age-dependent slopes are applied to all transitions, including initiation to conventional cigarettes and to a second product (MRTP). A Monte Carlo simulation model generates random individual product use histories, including CPD, to project cumulative deaths through 2060 in a population with versus without the MRTP. Transitions are modeled to and from dual use, which affects CPD and cigarette quit rates, and to MRTP use only. Results in a hypothetical scenario showed high sensitivity of long-run mortality to CPD reduction levels and moderate sensitivity to ER transition rates. Models to project population effects of an MRTP should account for possible mortality effects of reduced smoking among dual users. In addition, studies should follow dual-user CPD histories and quit rates over long time periods to clarify long-term usage patterns and thereby improve health impact projections. We simulated mortality effects of a hypothetical MRTP accounting for cigarette smoking reduction by smokers who add MRTP use. Data on relative mortality risk versus CPD suggest that this reduction may have a substantial effect on mortality rates, unaccounted for in other models. This effect is weighed with additional hypothetical effects in an example.

  12. Update on Risk Reduction Activities for a Liquid Advanced Booster for NASA's Space Launch System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crocker, Andrew M.; Greene, William D.

    2017-01-01

    The stated goals of NASA's Research Announcement for the Space Launch System (SLS) Advanced Booster Engineering Demonstration and/or Risk Reduction (ABEDRR) are to reduce risks leading to an affordable Advanced Booster that meets the evolved capabilities of SLS and enable competition by mitigating targeted Advanced Booster risks to enhance SLS affordability. Dynetics, Inc. and Aerojet Rocketdyne (AR) formed a team to offer a wide-ranging set of risk reduction activities and full-scale, system-level demonstrations that support NASA's ABEDRR goals. During the ABEDRR effort, the Dynetics Team has modified flight-proven Apollo-Saturn F-1 engine components and subsystems to improve affordability and reliability (e.g., reduce parts counts, touch labor, or use lower cost manufacturing processes and materials). The team has built hardware to validate production costs and completed tests to demonstrate it can meet performance requirements. State-of-the-art manufacturing and processing techniques have been applied to the heritage F-1, resulting in a low recurring cost engine while retaining the benefits of Apollo-era experience. NASA test facilities have been used to perform low-cost risk-reduction engine testing. In early 2014, NASA and the Dynetics Team agreed to move additional large liquid oxygen/kerosene engine work under Dynetics' ABEDRR contract. Also led by AR, the objectives of this work are to demonstrate combustion stability and measure performance of a 500,000 lbf class Oxidizer-Rich Staged Combustion (ORSC) cycle main injector. A trade study was completed to investigate the feasibility, cost effectiveness, and technical maturity of a domestically-produced engine that could potentially both replace the RD-180 on Atlas V and satisfy NASA SLS payload-to-orbit requirements via an advanced booster application. Engine physical dimensions and performance parameters resulting from this study provide the system level requirements for the ORSC risk reduction test article

  13. Use of calcium channel blockers in cardiovascular risk reduction: issues in Latin America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alcocer, Luis; Bendersky, Mario; Acosta, Julio; Urina-Triana, Miguel

    2010-01-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a continuum that begins with the presence of several risk factors for CVD, including smoking, hypertension, obesity, diabetes mellitus, and high levels of cholesterol, and if unaddressed can result in premature death, ischemic heart disease, stroke, congestive heart failure, and end-stage renal disease. Hypertension is associated with a significant increase in cardiovascular (CV) morbidity and mortality, raising the risk of stroke, myocardial infarction, heart failure, kidney disease, and peripheral arterial disease. In Latin America, the prevalence of hypertension and other CV risk factors has become similar to that seen in more developed countries, increasing the proportion of the population at high risk for CVD and congestive heart failure; however, it is hypertension that is a key driving force behind CV risk in Latin America. Despite the existence of a wide range of antihypertensive agents, BP control and reductions in CV risk remain poor in Latin America and in Hispanics living in the US. Ethnic differences in treatment rates and disease awareness have been well documented. Studies have shown that calcium channel blockers (CCBs; calcium channel antagonists) are at least as effective in reducing BP and improving the CV risk profile as other classes of antihypertensive agents when administered as monotherapy. CCBs have also been shown to be effective when administered as part of combination therapy in both low- and high-risk hypertensive patients, suggesting that CCBs can easily be combined with other antihypertensive classes in order to achieve BP control and CV risk reduction. In patients with hypertension, coronary artery disease, and high cholesterol, CCBs have been associated with beneficial effects on a range of other aspects of the CV continuum, including the vasculature, coronary calcification, and progression of atherosclerosis. CCBs have also been shown to preserve renal function. Unlike diuretics and beta

  14. Substance Use and Mild Traumatic Brain Injury Risk Reduction and Prevention: A Novel Model for Treatment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer H. Olson-Madden

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Traumatic brain injury (TBI and substance use disorders (SUDs frequently co-occur. Individuals with histories of alcohol or other drug use are at greater risk for sustaining TBI, and individuals with TBI frequently misuse substances before and after injury. Further, a growing body of literature supports the relationship between comorbid histories of mild TBI (mTBI and SUDs and negative outcomes. Alcohol and other drug use are strongly associated with risk taking. Disinhibition, impaired executive function, and/or impulsivity as a result of mTBI also contribute to an individual’s proclivity towards risk-taking. Risk-taking behavior may therefore, be a direct result of SUD and/or history of mTBI, and risky behaviors may predispose individuals for subsequent injury or continued use of substances. Based on these findings, evaluation of risk-taking behavior associated with the co-occurrence of SUD and mTBI should be a standard clinical practice. Interventions aimed at reducing risky behavior among members of this population may assist in decreasing negative outcomes. A novel intervention (Substance Use and Traumatic Brain Injury Risk Reduction and Prevention (STRRP for reducing and preventing risky behaviors among individuals with co-occurring mTBI and SUD is presented. Areas for further research are discussed.

  15. Competing risk model for reduction in life expectancy from radiogenic latent cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, H.T.

    1978-01-01

    Because of the large number of persons who could potentially receive low doses of radiation as a result of a nuclear reactor accident, the number of fatalities from latent cancers is generally larger than the early, or prompt, fatalities. For this reason the latent cancer fatality risk of reactor accidents is perceived as being more important than the early fatality risk. In addition, there exists the temptation to add the latent cancer fatality risk to the early fatality risk for the purpose of comparing reactor accident risks to other risks that society is exposed to, such as automobile accidents, airplane accidents, hurricanes, etc. However, the impact on the individual, and society as a whole, due to latent cancer fatalities is significantly different from the impact produced by early fatalities. Early fatalities generally result in appreciable life shortening for the affected individual while latent cancer fatalities generally result in very limited life shortening. A mathematical model was developed to express the reduction in life expectancy due to latent radiogenic cancer as a function of dose received

  16. The HIV risk reduction needs of homeless women in Los Angeles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cederbaum, Julie A; Wenzel, Suzanne L; Gilbert, Mary Lou; Chereji, Elizabeth

    2013-01-01

    Substance use, housing instability, and transactional sex all contribute to HIV risk engagement among homeless women. Because of the increased risk of HIV among homeless women, this study sought to understand the context of sexual behaviors and condom use among homeless women and elucidate modifiable factors that can be targeted by interventions. Homeless women (n = 45) participated in focus groups (n = 6) at shelters throughout Los Angeles County. Thematic analyses revealed that similar to other high-risk women, homeless women engage in sex with multiple types of partners (steady, casual, and transactional). Our findings indicate that, similar to use among other high-risk women, condom use by homeless women varied by type of partner. Substance use also contributed to condom non-use. In a departure from previous research, homeless women reported overarching feelings of hopelessness. Participants spoke of hopelessness contributing to risk engagement, specifically the number of ongoing stressors experienced because of homelessness contributing to despair. Without acknowledgement of this unique quality of homelessness, women felt their risk reduction needs would never truly be understood. Interventions involving homeless women should include self-esteem building, acknowledgment and use of inherent resilience qualities gained during homelessness, respect for current knowledge and skills, and an exploration of when women choose to trust their partners and how they make safer sex choices. Copyright © 2013 Jacobs Institute of Women's Health. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Risk of new-onset diabetes mellitus versus reduction in cardiovascular events with statin therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Kang-Ling; Liu, Chia-Jen; Chao, Tze-Fan; Chen, Su-Jung; Wu, Cheng-Hsueh; Huang, Chi-Ming; Chang, Chun-Chin; Wang, Ko-Fan; Chen, Tzeng-Ji; Lin, Shing-Jong; Chiang, Chern-En

    2014-02-15

    The Food and Drug Administration recently updated the safety warning concerning the association between statin therapy and new-onset diabetes mellitus (NODM). For prediabetes, little information is available for statins on cardiovascular outcome reduction and diabetogenic consequences. This study aimed to examine the risk of NODM and the reduction of cardiovascular events and death (MACE) after statin therapy in the prediabetic subjects. The medical and pharmacy claims of the prediabetic beneficiaries were retrieved from Taiwan National Health Insurance research database. The occurrence of NODM, MACE, and morbidity indexed by hospitalizations and emergency visits was ascertained by ambulatory and inpatient database. A propensity score-matched model was constructed for statin users and nonusers. During follow-up (4.1 ± 2.5 years), NODM and MACE occurred in 23.5% and 16.7%, respectively, of nonusers and 28.5% and 12.0%, respectively, of users. Statin therapy was associated with a greater risk of NODM (hazard ratio 1.20, 95% confidence interval 1.08 to 1.32) and less risk of MACE (hazard ratio 0.70, 95% confidence interval 0.61 to 0.80), both in dose-dependent fashions. The earlier and more persistent use correlated with the greater increase in risk of NODM offset by the proportionally larger reduction in MACE. Furthermore, the early persistent users had the lowest rate of hospitalizations and emergency visits. In conclusion, our findings suggested that the relation between NODM and therapeutic advantages of statins was parallel in the prediabetic population. Treatment benefits outweighed diabetic consequences in subjects receiving the earlier and more persistent treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Mechanisms of Partner Violence Reduction in a Group HIV-Risk Intervention for Hispanic Women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCabe, Brian E; Gonzalez-Guarda, Rosa M; Peragallo, Nilda P; Mitrani, Victoria B

    2016-08-01

    The objective of this study was to test whether partner communication about HIV and/or alcohol intoxication mediated reductions in intimate partner violence (IPV) in SEPA (Salud [health], Educación [education], Promoción [promotion], y [and] Autocuidado [self-care]), a culturally specific, theoretically based group HIV-risk reduction intervention for Hispanic women. SEPA had five sessions covering sexually transmitted infection (STI)/HIV prevention, partner communication, condom negotiation and use, and IPV. SEPA reduced IPV and alcohol intoxication, and improved partner communication compared with controls in a randomized trial with adult U.S. Hispanic women (SEPA, n = 274; delayed intervention control, n = 274) who completed structured interviews at baseline and 3, 6, and 12 months post-baseline. Parallel process latent growth curve models indicated that partner communication about HIV mediated the reduction in male-to-female IPV in SEPA, B = -0.78, SE = 0.14, p< .001, but alcohol intoxication did not, B = -0.15, SE = 0.19, p = .431. Male-to-female IPV mediated the intervention effect on female-to-male IPV, B = -1.21, SE = 0.24, p< .001. Skills building strategies originally designed to enhance women's communication with their partners about sexual risk behaviors also worked to reduce male-to-female IPV, which in turn reduced female-to-male IPV. These strategies could be integrated into other types of health promotion interventions. © The Author(s) 2015.

  19. Constructing post-carbon institutions: Assessing EU carbon reduction efforts through an institutional risk governance approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LaBelle, Michael

    2012-01-01

    This paper examines three different governance approaches the European Union (EU) and Member States (MS) are relying on to reach a low carbon economy by 2050. Current governance literature explains the operational methods of the EU's new governance approach to reduce carbon emissions. However, the literature neglects to account for the perceived risks that inhibit the roll-out of new low carbon technology. This article, through a novel approach, uses a grounded theoretical framework to reframe traditional risk literature and provides a connection to governance literature in order to assess the ability of EU governance mechanisms to reduce carbon emissions. The empirical research is based on responses from European energy stakeholders who participated in a Delphi method discussion and in semi-structured interviews; these identified three essential requirements for carbon emissions to be reduced to near zero by 2050: (1) an integrated European energy network, (2) carbon pricing and (3) demand reduction. These features correspond to institutionalized responses by the EU and MS: the Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER); European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) and energy efficiency directives and policies integrated into existing MS institutions. The theoretical and empirical findings suggest that governance by facilitation (energy efficiency) fails to induce significant investment and new policy approaches and cannot be relied on to achieve requisite reductions in demand. Governance by negotiation (ACER) and governance by hierarchy (EU ETS) do reduce risks and may encourage the necessary technological uptake. The term ‘risk governance’ is used to explain the important role governance plays in reducing risks and advancing new technology and thereby lowering carbon emissions in the energy sector. - Highlights: ► This article assesses the role of EU institutions in reducing carbon emissions by 2050. ► Empirical research is based on Delphi

  20. Suboptimal use of risk reduction therapy in peripheral arterial disease patients at a major teaching hospital

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Omran, Mohammed; Verma, Subodh; Lindsay, Thomas F.

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Current evidence suggests that modification of atherosclerosis risk factors plays an important role in reducing adverse cardiovascular outcomes in patients with peripheral arterial disease (PAD). This study was undertaken to determine whether patients in this high-risk group were adequately using risk factor modification therapy. DESIGN AND SETTING: Prospective study of consecutive patients with PAD from a teaching hospital. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The collected data included information about atherosclerotic risk factors and utilization of risk factor modification therapy RESULTS: The 391 patients had a mean (standard deviation of 3 (1) atherosclerotic risk factors. Hypertension was identified in 56.8% of patients (222/391), of whom only 37.4% (83/222) had adequate blood pressure control (BP 2.5 mmol/L, compared to a rate of 76.5% (117/153) among non-statin users (P<.001). The majority of patients of patients ( 72.4%; 283/391) were overweight/obese. Many patients (67.3%; 263/391) were nonsmokers; however, most (73.4%; 193/263) had a history of smoking. Antiplatelets were prescribed for 78.3% of patients (306/391), of whom 70.6% (216/306) were taking aspirin. Angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors were prescribed for 44.8% of patients (175/391). Among rampril users, only 36.8% of patients (53/144) were on an optimal dose. CONCLUSION: Although atherosclerotic risk factors were prevalent in patients with PAD, we found that patients received sub-optimal use of risk reduction treatments. Effective strategies to encourage health professionals to use these adjunctive therapies need to be developed. PMID:21808113

  1. Reduction of Risk Factors in Patients with Behavioral Dysphonia After Vocal Group Therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Wégina Jordâna Nascimento da; Lopes, Leonardo Wanderley; Macedo, Anny Elizabety Ramalho de; Costa, Denise Batista da; Almeida, Anna Alice Figueiredo de

    2017-01-01

    The origin and development of dysphonia, particularly behavioral dysphonia, is associated with several risk factors. Here, we verified the effectiveness of group therapy in reducing the risk factors, and established the association between risk factors and sex, age, profession, and diagnosis of laryngeal disorders in patients with behavioral dysphonia. This is a descriptive, quantitative, field intervention study. Participants (n = 26, adult patients of both sexes), with a diagnosis of behavioral dysphonia, received group therapy intervention. Data for risk factors were collected pre- and posttherapy using the Vocal Screening Protocol. The data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics (Student t test, chi-squared test or Spearman correlation test). The majority (80.8%, n = 21) of patients were female, 65.4% (n = 17) were not in a vocal profession, and 42.3% (n = 11) presented with a lesion in the membranous portion of the vocal fold. The number of personal risk factors decreased after group therapy (P = 0.04). In addition, age was correlated with total (P = 0.001), environmental (P = 0.002), and personal (P = 0.003) vocal risk factors posttherapy. This study revealed an association between the reduction of personal risk factors and vocal group therapy, and a correlation between age and total, environmental, and personal vocal risk factors posttherapy. Thus, maintenance and origins of the behaviors that modify the behavioral aspects of the participants directly influence the production of individual vocal habits. Copyright © 2017 The Voice Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Effectiveness of general practice nurse interventions in cardiac risk factor reduction among adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halcomb, Elizabeth; Moujalli, Suzanne; Griffiths, Rhonda; Davidson, Patricia

    2007-09-01

    Background  Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death for adults in Australia. In recent years there has been a shift in health service delivery from institutional to community-based care for chronic conditions, including cardiovascular disease. The general practice setting is seen to offer greater flexibility, higher levels of efficiency and more client focused healthcare delivery than is possible in the acute care sector. It has been suggested that practice nurses represent a useful adjunct to current models of cardiovascular disease management. To date, significant descriptive research has been conducted exploring the demographics, roles, educational needs and issues facing practice nurses. However, there is a need to evaluate the effectiveness of practice nurse interventions in terms of patient outcomes, clinician satisfaction and cost-effectiveness. Objectives  This review seeks to present the best available evidence regarding the efficacy of general practice nurse interventions for cardiac risk factor reduction in healthy adults, as well as those with established cardiovascular disease or known cardiac risk factors. Search Strategy  A systematic literature search was performed using Medline (1966 - 2005), CINAHL (1982 -2005), Cochrane Controlled Trials Register (Issue 4, 2005) and the Joanna Briggs Institute Evidence Library. In addition, the reference lists of retrieved papers, conference proceedings and the Internet, were scrutinised for additional trials. Selection Criteria  This review considered any English language randomised trials that investigated interventions conducted by the practice nurse for cardiovascular disease management or reduction of cardiac risk factors. Interventions conducted by specialist cardiac nurses in general practice were excluded. Outcomes measured included blood pressure, smoking cessation, total cholesterol, exercise, body weight/body mass index and cost-effectiveness. Results  Eighteen trials, reported

  3. Minority Households' Willingness-to-Pay for Public and Private Wildfire Risk Reduction in Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez-Caban, A.; Sanchez, J. J.

    2017-12-01

    The purpose of this work is to estimate willingness-to-pay (WTP) for minority (African-American and Hispanic) homeowners in Florida for private and public wildfire risk reduction programs and also to test for differences in response between the two groups. A random parameter logit and latent class models allowed us to determine if there is difference in wildfire mitigation program preferences, whether WTP is higher for public or private actions for wildfire risk reduction, and whether households with personal experience and who perceive that they live in higher-risk areas have significantly higher WTP. We also compare FL minority homeowners' WTP values with Florida original homeowners' estimates. Results suggest that FL minority homeowners are willing to invest in public programs, with African-Americans WTP values at a higher rate than Hispanics. In addition, the highest priority for cost sharing funds would go to low-income homeowners, especially to cost-share private actions on their own land. These results may help fire managers optimize allocation of scarce cost-sharing funds for public versus private actions.

  4. Pilot Test of an Adapted, Evidence-Based HIV Sexual Risk Reduction Intervention for Homeless Women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenzel, Suzanne L; Cederbaum, Julie A; Song, Ahyoung; Hsu, Hsun-Ta; Craddock, Jaih B; Hantanachaikul, Wichada; Tucker, Joan S

    2016-01-01

    Women experiencing homelessness are at heightened risk for HIV, yet risk reduction interventions specifically designed for this population are lacking. This study reports on a pilot efficacy trial of a brief evidence-based intervention, Sister To Sister (STS), that we specifically adapted for homeless women in the temporary/emergency settings where they typically seek services. Seventy-nine women, recruited from three service sites in Los Angeles County, were assigned to the 40-min adapted STS intervention or an information-only control group. At 30-day follow-up, intervention participants reported significantly greater condom use, intentions to use condoms, and sexual impulse control (as well as marginally higher positive condom beliefs and condom self-efficacy) compared to control participants. Results provide preliminary evidence that HIV risk reduction can be achieved for homeless women through a brief skill-based intervention. A randomized controlled trial employing a longer follow-up period to monitor outcomes will be necessary to determine efficacy of the adapted intervention.

  5. Effectiveness of Methadone in Reduction of High Risk Behaviors in Clients of MMT Center

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F Ehsani

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Addiction as a social, health problem with its specific complications threatens societies. High risk behaviors such as violence, self mutilation, tattooing, shared injections and unprotected sex behaviors are some of the problems in addicts that need to be treated. One of these treatments is methadone therapy. The purpose of this study was to evaluate effectiveness of methadone in prevention or reduction of high risk behaviors in clients of a MMT center of Shaheed Sadoughi University of medical sciences of Yazd. Methods: This study was done on 93 clients of a MMT center.Questionnaire for this study included items from MAP and questions about some other risky behaviors. This questionnaire was completed at onset of treatment and 6 months after. Data was analyzed with SPSS software program Results: 89.2% of participants were married and 10.8% were single. 63.5% of them were in the20-40 years age group. Most commonly abused substances were heroin and opium. Before onset of treatment, 37.6% of participants had history of imprisonment, 35.5% had shared injections, 32.3%had had unprotected sex, 22.6%had tattooing and 5.4%had mutilated their own selves. Only 36.6% didn’t have any high risk behavior. These behaviors were more common in heroin users and in the20-40 years age group. After onset of treatment and during 6 month of MMT, 86% of clients didn’t have any risky behavior. Only 14%of them continued to have unsafe sex behaviors Conclusion: Addiction can cause high risk behaviors. Data in this paper suggests that young age, heroin use, low education level and no or inadequate information about addictive substances and their consequences are effective and important factors that cause high risk behaviors. Treatment of addicts with methadone maintenance therapy plays an important role in reduction of risky behaviors. Development of appropriate and more MMT centers are recommended.

  6. Use of GIS in the estimation and development of risk reduction technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ha, Jae Joo

    1998-03-01

    The occurrence probability of a severe accident in the nuclear power plant is very small because the safety of a plant and the public is considered in the design and operation of a nuclear power plant. However, if a severe accident occurs, the establishment of a reduction strategy of damages resulting from it is essential because the effect of it on the human and the environment is very large. The important criterion which determines the severity of an accident is risk, which is defined as the product of its frequently and the consequence. The establishment of countermeasures in order to estimate and reduce risks quantitatively can be a very powerful tool to minimize the effect of an accident on the human and the environment. The research on the establishment of a framework which integrates a geographic information system (GIS), a database management system (DBMS), and decision making support system (DMSS) is considered very actively. Based on these systems, we can accomplish the estimation and display of risks and the development of reduction methodologies which are essential parts of an accident management of a nuclear power plant. The GIS plays a role to support users to systematize and comprehend spatial relationships of information which are necessary for the decision making. Through the DBMS, we can establish and manage spatial and attribute data, and use them in the query and selection. The DMSS is a computer-based information system which makes a necessary decision easily. In this study, we reviewed the fundamental concepts of a GIS and examined the methodology for the use of it in the estimation and display of risks. Also, we established the fundamental GIS platform of a Yonggwang site and the necessary database systems for the estimation of risks. (author). 17 refs., 9 tabs., 34 figs

  7. Preventive potential of body mass reduction to lower cardiovascular risk: the Italian Progetto CUORE study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panico, Salvatore; Palmieri, Luigi; Donfrancesco, Chiara; Vanuzzo, Diego; Chiodini, Paolo; Cesana, Giancarlo; Ferrario, Marco; Mattiello, Amalia; Pilotto, Lorenza; Sega, Roberto; Giampaoli, Simona; Stamler, Jeremiah

    2008-07-01

    To estimate effects of weight change on incidence of major cardiovascular events in the Italian population-based Progetto CUORE. Prospective observation in 12 Italian population-based cohorts on etiology of cardiovascular disease. Twenty-thousand six-hundred-forty-seven men and women aged 35-69 years without previous CVD, examined at baseline between 1984 and 1993 and followed for median time 8.5 years, with validated first cardiovascular events. Standardised anthropometric variables, lifestyle and biochemical risk factors for CVD; major cardiovascular events as end-points. Linear regression between BMI and major CVD risk factors was combined with Cox coefficients from a prediction model of CVD, CHD and stroke using major risk factors as dependent variables. Estimated cardiovascular risk reductions with BMI lowered by 1 to 3 U were: for men 3.8% to 10.9% for all cardiovascular events, 4.2% to 12.1% for CHD, and 2.3% to 6.9% for stroke; for women 2.8% to 8.1% for all cardiovascular events, 3.4% to 9.8% for CHD, and 2.1% to 6.2% for stroke. Body weight level influences cardiovascular disease risk in the Italian population.

  8. SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario--Executive Summary and Introduction: Chapter A in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Stephanie L.; Jones, Lucile M.; Miller, Kevin H.; Porter, Keith A.; Wein, Anne; Wilson, Rick I.; Bahng, Bohyun; Barberopoulou, Aggeliki; Borrero, Jose C.; Brosnan, Deborah M.; Bwarie, John T.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, Laurie A.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Knight, William R.; Long, Kate; Lynett, Patrick; Mortensen, Carl E.; Nicolsky, Dmitry J.; Perry, Suzanne C.; Plumlee, Geoffrey S.; Real, Charles R.; Ryan, Kenneth; Suleimani, Elena; Thio, Hong Kie; Titov, Vasily V.; Whitmore, Paul M.; Wood, Nathan J.

    2013-01-01

    The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey, the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

  9. Global and local scale flood discharge simulations in the Rhine River basin for flood risk reduction benchmarking in the Flagship Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gädeke, Anne; Gusyev, Maksym; Magome, Jun; Sugiura, Ai; Cullmann, Johannes; Takeuchi, Kuniyoshi

    2015-04-01

    The global flood risk assessment is prerequisite to set global measurable targets of post-Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) that mobilize international cooperation and national coordination towards disaster risk reduction (DRR) and requires the establishment of a uniform flood risk assessment methodology on various scales. To address these issues, the International Flood Initiative (IFI) has initiated a Flagship Project, which was launched in year 2013, to support flood risk reduction benchmarking at global, national and local levels. In the Flagship Project road map, it is planned to identify the original risk (1), to identify the reduced risk (2), and to facilitate the risk reduction actions (3). In order to achieve this goal at global, regional and local scales, international research collaboration is absolutely necessary involving domestic and international institutes, academia and research networks such as UNESCO International Centres. The joint collaboration by ICHARM and BfG was the first attempt that produced the first step (1a) results on the flood discharge estimates with inundation maps under way. As a result of this collaboration, we demonstrate the outcomes of the first step of the IFI Flagship Project to identify flood hazard in the Rhine river basin on the global and local scale. In our assessment, we utilized a distributed hydrological Block-wise TOP (BTOP) model on 20-km and 0.5-km scales with local precipitation and temperature input data between 1980 and 2004. We utilized existing 20-km BTOP model, which is applied globally, and constructed the local scale 0.5-km BTOP model for the Rhine River basin. For the BTOP model results, both calibrated 20-km and 0.5-km BTOP models had similar statistical performance and represented observed flood river discharges, epecially for 1993 and 1995 floods. From 20-km and 0.5-km BTOP simulation, the flood discharges of the selected return period were estimated using flood frequency analysis and were comparable to

  10. Risk reduction in a changing insurance climate: examples from the US and UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horn, Diane; McShane, Michael

    2015-04-01

    Coastal cities face a range of increasingly severe challenges as sea level rises, and adaptation to future flood risk will require more than structural defences. Many cities will not be able to rely solely on engineering structures for protection and will need to develop a suite of policy responses to increase their resilience to impacts of rising sea level. Insurance can be used as a risk-sharing mechanism to encourage adaptation to sea level rise, using pricing or restrictions on availability of cover to discourage new development in flood risk areas or to encourage the uptake of flood resilience measures. We draw on flood insurance policy lessons learned from the United States and the United Kingdom to propose risk-sharing among private insurers/reinsurers, government, and policyholders to alleviate major issues of the current programs, while still maintaining a holistic approach to managing flood risk. The UK and the US are almost polar opposites in the way flood insurance is implemented. Flood insurance in the US is fully public and in the UK fully private; however, in both countries the participants feel that the established system is unsustainable. In the US, flood coverage is excluded from property policies provided by private insurers, and is only available through the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), with the federal government acting as insurer of last resort. Flood risk reduction has been part of the NFIP remit since the introduction of the program in 1968. Following massive payments for flood claims related primarily to Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy, the NFIP is approximately 26 billion in debt, prompting calls to bring private insurance back into the flood insurance business. Two major Congressional modifications to the NFIP in 2012 and 2014 have pushed the contradictory goals of fully risk-based, yet affordable premiums. The private market has not been significantly involved in a risk-bearing role, but that is changing as private insurers

  11. Communication of fracture risk and treatment benefit in terms of "Bone Health Age” using FRAX or Qfracture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abrahamsen, Bo; Rubin, Katrine Hass; Hansen, Carinna

    Introduction: Communication of absolute and relative risks is challenging despite the development of tools to quickly derive absolute fracture risk estimates from risk factors with or without BMD. We speculated that back-transformation of risks to a risk age could make for a clearer message...... years-old woman (Qfracture). Treatment with 40% risk reduction is equivalent to a reduction in risk age by 10 years in both algorithms, reducing risk age to 62 (FRAX) or 60 years (Qfracture). Table 1 Assuming no treatment Assuming treatment with 40% risk reduction FRAX ‘Age’/ 10 years risk Qfracture......: Conversion of absolute fracture risk to equivalent bone health age is simple and intuitive and can accommodate both baseline BMD and the expected risk reductions on treatment....

  12. Community food environment measures in the Alabama Black Belt: Implications for cancer risk reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gyawu, Rebecca; Quansah, Joseph E.; Fall, Souleymane; Gichuhi, Peter N.; Bovell-Benjamin, Adelia C.

    2015-01-01

    In-store measures were utilized to evaluate the availability of healthy food choices and nutrition/health promotion messages for cancer risk reduction in the selected Alabama Black Belt counties/cities. Sixty one retail food outlets (RFOs) were audited in 12 Alabama Black Belt cities. Store types included convenience stores (49.2%), restaurants (19.7%), fast food restaurants (16.4%), small supermarkets (8.2%), and large supermarket and farmers' markets (3.3 %), respectively. Although there were low numbers of farmers' markets/street stands and large supermarkets, these had significantly (p food environment had limited opportunities for healthy food choices. PMID:26844138

  13. Questioning Psychosocial Resilience After Flooding and the Consequences for Disaster Risk Reduction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Crabtree, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    , Bihar following the 2008 Kosi River flooding, it documents, 18 months post flood, that flood onset gave rise to symptoms related to Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (primarily re-experiencing). The villagers’ primary concern was livelihood loss which, together with their lack of hope for the future, led...... to symptoms of depression. It argues that mental health issues should be fully integrated into Disaster Risk Reduction plans and policies, which are likely to be included in the Post-2015 Millennium Development Goals. In addition to supporting mental health interventions, the paper suggests that deep socio...

  14. Towards improved public awareness for climate related disaster risk reduction in South Africa: A Participatory Development Communication perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tigere Chagutah

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Southern Africa has frequently been struck by damaging climate hazards which increasingly continue to threaten sustainable development efforts. Ominously, climate models predict that the incidence of major ‘wet’ events, such as floods and cyclones will increase in frequency against the background of a changing climate. Unfortunately, local mechanisms for communicating and raising public awareness of the consequent risks and appropriate risk reduction options remain weak. At the core of policy responses to the threat posed by climate related hazards, the South African government has adopted a disaster risk reduction approach to disaster management. This article details how, among many other measures to limit the adverse impacts of natural hazards, South Africa’s National Disaster Management Framework calls for the implementation of effective public awareness activities to increase the knowledge among communities of the risks they face and what risk-minimising actions they can take. Emphasis is laid on the importance of information provision and knowledge building among at-risk communities. Citing established theories and strategies, the author proposes a participatory development communication approach through Development Support Communication strategies for the provision of disaster risk reduction public awareness activities by government and other disaster risk reduction role-players in South Africa. By way of a review of completed studies and literature, the article provides guidance on the planning and execution of successful public communication campaigns and also discusses the constraints of communication campaigns as an intervention for comprehensive disaster risk reduction.

  15. Risk reduction by population sheltering during nuclear emergency in Hong Kong

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yeung Mankit Ray; Leung Sze Cheung; Liu Wai Sing

    2004-01-01

    A survey of the Hong Kong building types and a grouping scheme is developed such that a set of population-weighted effective shielding and inhalation factors can be devised for nuclear accident consequence analysis. By using a variable trajectory dispersion/consequence model RADIS and the Hong Kong weather data, the present study obtains sets of occurrence frequency distributions of early fatality, early injuries and latent cancers for four different emergency response countermeasures which include no sheltering, sheltering with no action, sheltering with actions and sheltering with rigorous actions. It is found that proper countermeasures can significantly reduce the risk of early effects to the Hong Kong public by eliminating the possibility of early fatality and drastically reducing of 1-2 orders of magnitude in early injuries. Similar reduction in the risk of latent cancers can be also seen but the savings are not as drastic as those of the early effects. (author)

  16. Workshop: Economic Valuation of Mortality Risk Reduction: Assessing the State of the Art for Policy Applications (2002)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This two-day workshop, co-sponsored by EPA's National Center for Environmental Economics and National Center for Environmental Research, was dedicated to exploring methods for valuing mortality risk reductions. There were six sessions held in total.

  17. United States-Chile binational exchange for volcanic risk reduction, 2015—Activities and benefits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierson, Thomas C.; Mangan, Margaret T.; Lara Pulgar, Luis E.; Ramos Amigo, Álvaro

    2017-07-25

    In 2015, representatives from the United States and Chile exchanged visits to discuss and share their expertise and experiences dealing with volcano hazards. Communities in both countries are at risk from various volcano hazards. Risks to lives and property posed by these hazards are a function not only of the type and size of future eruptions but also of distances from volcanoes, structural integrity of volcanic edifices, landscape changes imposed by recent past eruptions, exposure of people and resources to harm, and any mitigative measures taken (or not taken) to reduce risk. Thus, effective risk-reduction efforts require the knowledge and consideration of many factors, and firsthand experience with past volcano crises provides a tremendous advantage for this work. However, most scientists monitoring volcanoes and most officials delegated with the responsibility for emergency response and management in volcanic areas have little or no firsthand experience with eruptions or volcano hazards. The reality is that eruptions are infrequent in most regions, and individual volcanoes may have dormant periods lasting hundreds to thousands of years. Knowledge may be lacking about how to best plan for and manage future volcanic crises, and much can be learned from the sharing of insights and experiences among counterpart specialists who have had direct, recent, or different experiences in dealing with restless volcanoes and threatened populations. The sharing of information and best practices can help all volcano scientists and officials to better prepare for future eruptions or noneruptive volcano hazards, such as large volcanic mudflows (lahars), which could affect their communities.

  18. Correlates of HIV Risk Reduction Self-Efficacy among Youth in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia Louw

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Even though a decline in HIV prevalence has been reported among South African youth 15–24 from 10.3% in 2005 to 8.6% in 2008, the prevalence remains disproportionately high for females overall in comparison to males. This study examines factors associated by HIV risk reduction self-efficacy of South African youth as part of an evaluation of the impact of loveLife, a youth focused HIV prevention programme. A cross-sectional population-based household survey was conducted with persons of ages 18 to 24 years in four selected provinces in South Africa. Among female respondents (, factors associated with high self-efficacy in the adjusted model were having a low HIV risk perception, HIV/AIDS stigma, ever using drugs, and having life goals. Male respondents ( with high self-efficacy were more likely to have been tested for HIV, have concurrent sexual partners, have had a transactional sex partner in lifetime, a low HIV risk perception, difficulty in having condoms, agreed with coercive sex, high relationship control, and had loveLife face-to-face programme participation. The factors identified with high self-efficacy and HIV-sexual risk behaviour may be considered to strengthen youth HIV prevention programmes in South Africa.

  19. Mujeres felices por ser saludables: a breast cancer risk reduction program for Latino women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzgibbon, Marian L; Gapstur, Susan M; Knight, Sara J

    2003-05-01

    Breast cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer and the most common cause of cancer mortality among Latino women. Several behavioral factors such as early detection and dietary practices could help decrease morbidity and mortality associated with breast cancer in this population. Unfortunately, there are few data regarding the efficacy of health-related interventions for young Latino women. Mujeres Felices por ser Saludables is a randomized intervention project designed to assess breast cancer risk reduction behavior among Latino women ages 20-40 years. The primary objectives of the project were to determine whether an 8-month integrated dietary/breast health intervention could lead to a greater reduction in dietary fat, increase in dietary fiber, increase in the frequency and proficiency of breast self examination (BSE), and reduction in anxiety related to BSE compared to controls. Herein we describe the overall design of the project and present baseline characteristics of the 256 randomized women. Our results suggest that the average daily intake of dietary fat (percentage of total energy) was slightly below 30% (percentage of total energy) among the women randomized. While over half of these women reported that they practice BSE, and few reported anxiety related to BSE, less than 27% of women were proficient in the recommended BSE technique. There are few data on the dietary and breast health behaviors of young low-acculturated Latino women. This study documents the feasibility of recruiting, randomizing, and obtaining both baseline dietary and breast health data on this unique and underserved population.

  20. Risk factors for failure after open reduction for DDH: a matched cohort analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sankar, Wudbhav N; Young, Charles R; Lin, Abraham G; Crow, Scott A; Baldwin, Keith D; Moseley, Colin F

    2011-01-01

    No controlled data exists regarding the risk factors for redislocation after a technically proficient open reduction for developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH). The purposes of this study were to examine predictors of redislocation and to evaluate the long-term outcomes after revision surgery. We performed a retrospective match-controlled study comparing 22 patients who had successful open reduction for DDH with 22 who required revision open reduction. Radiographs were compared in terms of acetabular index, pelvic width, triradiate cartilage width, height of dislocation, size of ossific nucleus, abduction angle in the spica cast, Tönnis grade, and Severin grade. At final follow-up, Sharp's angle, center-edge angle, migration index, and continuity of Shenton's line were compared between the 2 cohorts. Hips were reclassified according to the Tönnis and Severin criteria, and graded for avascular necrosis. Univariate t tests, multivariate logistic regression, and Fisher exact tests were used to compare the statistical data. Twenty-five of 421 patients (5.9%) developed a redislocation at a mean of 124 days after the initial open reduction. Patients with right or bilateral DDH were significantly more likely to fail (P=0.01). Compared with matched controls, the 22 study patients had significantly larger pelvic width and lower abduction angle (mean 39 degrees vs. 51 degrees) in the postoperative spica cast (P=0.003 and 0.037). According to the surgeon's findings at revision surgery, the most common reasons for failure were a dysmorphic femoral head and abnormal femoral version. At final follow-up, subluxation rate and Severin grade were significantly higher in the revision group versus controls but the incidence of avascular necrosis was comparable (revision group=55% and control group=41%; P=0.55). On the basis of this study, right-sided (or bilateral) involvement, greater pelvic width, and decreased abduction in the spica cast were risk factors for redislocation

  1. The Effect of Risk Reduction Intervention on Earthquake Disaster Preparedness of the Elderly People

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kian Nourozi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Because of vulnerability of the elders in disasters, preparedness of this group is very important in reducing the damages caused by the earthquake. Therefore, the present study designed and conducted with the purpose of developing interventions to increase earthquake preparedness and risk reduction in the elderly people living in Hadishahr Jolfa City, Iran. Materials and Methods: This study was a quasi-experimental study with pretest, posttest design and a control group. Fifty community dwelling elderly people were selected through simple random sampling method from 2 health centers and randomly allocated to intervention and control groups. Intervention program consisted of educational sessions with slideshows, group discussions, and sending reminder materials to their addresses a week later. The data were collected using the researcher developed preparedness questionnaire consisting of 58 items with 4 subscales (communication, environmental, during and after earthquake period. Inferential analyses of data, including analysis of covariance was done by SPSS version 16. Results: The findings showed that scores in all subscales of earthquake preparedness (communication, environment, during and after earthquake significantly increased after educational intervention (P<0.05. Conclusion: Preparedness programs for disaster risk reduction has a positive effect on the elders’ preparedness. Thus, similar multimodal preparedness programs should be used more frequently for this vulnerable community citizens.

  2. Goals and activities of the JICA technical cooperation project on reduction of seismic risk in Romania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vacareanu, R.; Kato, H.

    2007-01-01

    Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) Technical Cooperation Project on Reduction of Seismic Risk for Buildings and Structures started in Romania on October 1, 2002. The aim of the Project is to strengthen the capacity of earthquake disaster related activities in Romania. The Project approval is the result of four years of intensive efforts made by professionals from Technical University of Civil Engineering Bucharest (UTCB), Ministry of Transport, Constructions and Tourism (MTCT), Romania, National Building Research Institute (INCERC) Bucharest, JICA, Building Research Institute (BRI), Tsukuba, and National Institute for Land, Infrastructure and Management (NILIM), Tsukuba, Japan. The duration of the Project is five years. The implementing agency is the National Center for Seismic Risk Reduction (NCSRR) as a public institution of national interest under MTCT. The activities are carried out by NCSRR in partnership with UTCB and INCERC. During the Project period, 29 young Romanian engineers were trained in Japan, 7 Japanese experts and 37 Japanese experts worked for long-term and short-term, respectively in Romania. Equipment for seismic instrumentation, dynamic characterization of soil and structural testing rising up approximately to 260 million yens (i.e. 2.17 million USD) were donated by JICA to Romania, through NCSRR. The total cost of the Project is roughly 7 million USD. The paper describes the main activities and results of the Project until the JICA Final Evaluation Mission (March 2007). (authors)

  3. We4DRR: A brand new European network for women in Disaster Risk Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papathoma-Koehle, Maria; Keiler, Margreth; Promper, Catrin; Patek, Maria

    2017-04-01

    Natural hazards often intensify societal inequalities having disproportionate impact on some population groups including women. On the other hand, women working in the field of natural hazards, either on site as emergency workers or in research, policy and administration as scientists, experts and managers have to deal with a number of challenges. However, gender issues are often neglected and women networks related to natural hazards in Europe but also worldwide are scarce. We present here "We4DRR: Women exchange for Disaster Risk Reduction", a new women's network focusing on gender issues in the field of disaster risk reduction but also on women working in the field. The network was initiated and organised by the Austrian Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management (BMLFUW) and the University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna (BOKU) and was launched in Austria in March 2016. Its aims include collecting data on gender issues and DRR, empowerment of women, mentoring of young female professionals, and increasing the visibility of gender-specific aspects in DRR.

  4. Integrating community based disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation: examples from the Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Gero

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available It is acknowledged by academics and development practitioners alike that many common strategies addressing community based disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation duplicate each other. Thus, there is a strong push to integrate the two fields to enhance aid effectiveness and reduce confusion for communities. Examples of community based disaster risk reduction (DRR and climate change adaptation (CCA projects are presented to highlight some of the ways these issues are tackled in the Pacific. Various approaches are employed but all aim to reduce the vulnerability and enhance the resilience of local communities to the impacts of climate change and disasters. By focusing on three case studies, elements of best practice are drawn out to illustrate how DRR and CCA can be integrated for enhanced aid effectiveness, and also look at ways in which these two often overlapping fields can be better coordinated in ongoing and future projects. Projects that address vulnerability holistically, and target the overall needs and capacity of the community are found to be effective in enhancing the resilience of communities. By strategically developing a multi-stakeholder and multi-sector approach, community projects are likely to encapsulate a range of experience and skills that will benefit the community. Furthermore, by incorporating local knowledge, communities are far more likely to be engaged and actively participate in the project. From selected case studies, commonly occurring best practice methods to integrate DRR and CCA are identified and discussed and recommendations on how to overcome the common challenges also presented.

  5. The contribution of indigenous knowledge to disaster risk reduction activities in Zimbabwe: A big call to practitioners

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ernest Dube

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This article examined the contribution of indigenous knowledge to disaster risk reduction activities in Zimbabwe. The current discourse underrates the use of indigenous knowledge of communities by practitioners when dealing with disasters’, as the knowledge is often viewed as outdated and primitive. This study, which was conducted in 2016, sought to examine this problem through analysing the potential contribution of indigenous knowledge as a useful disaster risk reduction intervention. Tsholotsho district in Matabeleland, North province of Zimbabwe, which frequently experiences perennial devastating floods, was used as a case study. Interviews and researcher observations were used to gather data from 40 research participants. The findings were that communities understand weather patterns and could predict imminent flooding after studying trees and clouds, and the behaviours of certain animal species. Local communities also use available local resources to put structural measures in place as part of disaster risk reduction interventions. Despite this important potential, the study found that the indigenous knowledge of disaster risk reduction of the communities is often shunned by practitioners. The practitioners claim that indigenous knowledge lacks documentation, it is not found in all generational classes, it is contextualised to particular communities and the knowledge cannot be scientifically validated. The study concluded that both local communities and disaster risk reduction practitioners can benefit from the indigenous knowledge of communities. This research has the potential to benefit communities, policymakers and disaster risk reduction practitioners.

  6. Program for Volcanic Risk Reduction in the Americas: Translation of Science into Policy and Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mangan, Margaret; Pierson, Thomas; Wilkinson, Stuart; Westby, Elizabeth; Driedger, Carolyn; Ewert, John

    2016-04-01

    In 2013, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the U.S. Agency for International Development/Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA) inaugurated Volcanic Risk Reduction in the Americas, a program that brings together binational delegations of scientists, civil authorities, and emergency response managers to discuss the challenges of integrating volcano science into crisis response and risk reduction practices. During reciprocal visits, delegations tour areas impacted by volcanic unrest and/or eruption, meet with affected communities, and exchange insights and best practices. The 2013 exchange focused on hazards at Mount Rainier (Washington, USA) and Nevado del Ruiz (Caldas/Tolima, Colombia). Both of these volcanoes are highly susceptible to large volcanic mudflows (lahars). The Colombia-USA exchange allowed participants to share insights on lahar warning systems, self-evacuation planning, and effective education programs for at-risk communities. [See Driedger and Ewert (2015) Abstract 76171 presented at 2015 Fall AGU, San Francisco, Calif., Dec 14-18]. The second exchange, in 2015, took place between the USA and Chile, focusing on the Long Valley volcanic region (California, USA) and Chaitén volcano (Lagos, Chile) - both are centers of rhyolite volcanism. The high viscosity of rhyolite magma can cause explosive eruptions with widespread destruction. The rare but catastrophic "super eruptions" of the world have largely been the result of rhyolite volcanism. Chaitén produced the world's first explosive rhyolite eruption in the age of modern volcano monitoring in 2008-2009. Rhyolite eruptions of similar scale and style have occurred frequently in the Long Valley volcanic region, most recently about 600 years ago. The explosivity and relative rarity of rhyolite eruptions create unique challenges to risk reduction efforts. The recent Chaitén eruption was unexpected - little was known of Chaitén's eruptive history, and because of this, monitoring

  7. Are decreases in drug use risk associated with reductions in HIV sex risk behaviors among adults in an urban hospital primary care setting?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angela Wangari Walter, PhD, MPH, MSW

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Drug use is associated with increased sexual risk behaviors. We examined whether decreases in drug use risk are associated with reduction in HIV-related sex risk behaviors among adults. Data was from a cohort of participants (n = 574 identified by drug use screening in a randomized trial of brief intervention for drug use in an urban primary care setting. Inverse probability of treatment weighted (IPTW logistic regression models were used to examine the relationship between decreases in drug use risk and sex-related HIV risk behavior reduction from study entry to six months. Weights were derived from propensity score modeling of decreases in drug use risk as a function of potential confounders. Thirty seven percent of the study participants (213/574 reported a decrease in drug use risk, and 7% (33/505 reported decreased sex-related HIV risk behavior at the six-month follow-up point. We did not detect a difference in reduction of risky sexual behaviors for those who decreased drug use risk (unadjusted: OR 1.32, 95% CI 0.65–2.70; adjusted OR [AOR] 1.12, 95% CI 0.54–2.36. Adults who screened positive for high drug use risk had greater odds of reducing sex risk behavior in unadjusted analyses OR 3.71, 95% CI 1.81–7.60; but the results were not significant after adjusting for confounding AOR 2.50, 95% CI 0.85–7.30. In this primary care population, reductions in HIV sex risk behaviors have complex etiologies and reductions in drug use risk do not appear to be an independent predictor of them.

  8. Mediation of an efficacious HIV risk reduction intervention for South African men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Leary, Ann; Jemmott, John B; Jemmott, Loretta S; Bellamy, Scarlett; Icard, Larry D; Ngwane, Zolani

    2015-10-01

    "Men, Together Making a Difference!" is an HIV/STD risk-reduction intervention that significantly increased self-reported consistent condom use during vaginal intercourse compared with a health-promotion attention-control intervention among men (N = 1181) in Eastern Cape Province, South Africa. The present analyses were designed to identify mediators of the intervention's efficacy. The potential mediators were Social Cognitive Theory (SCT) constructs that the intervention targeted, including several aspects of condom-use self-efficacy, outcome expectancies, and knowledge. Mediation was assessed using a product-of-coefficients approach where an α path (the intervention's effect on the potential mediator) and a β path (the potential mediator's effect on the outcome of interest, adjusting for intervention) were estimated independently in a generalized estimating equations framework. Condom-use negotiation self-efficacy, technical-skill self-efficacy, and impulse-control self-efficacy were significant mediators. Although not mediators, descriptive norm and expected friends' approval of condom use predicted subsequent self-reported condom use, whereas the expected approval of sexual partner did not. The present results suggest that HIV/STD risk-reduction interventions that draw upon SCT and that address self-efficacy to negotiate condom use, to apply condoms correctly, and to exercise sufficient control when sexually aroused to use condoms may contribute to efforts to reduce sexual risk behavior among South African men. Future research must examine whether approaches that build normative support for condom use among men's friends are also efficacious.

  9. Diabetes and obesity: therapeutic targeting and risk reduction - a complex interplay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niswender, Kevin

    2010-04-01

    Obesity is a major risk factor for the development of diabetes and predisposes individuals to hypertension and dyslipidaemia. Together these pathologies increase the risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD), the major cause of morbidity and mortality in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Worsening trends in obesity and T2DM raise a serious conundrum, namely, how to control blood glucose, blood pressure, and lipids when many antidiabetic agents cause weight gain and thereby exacerbate other cardiovascular risk factors associated with T2DM. Further, evidence suggests that some established antihypertensive agents may worsen glucose intolerance. Many patients who are obese, hypertensive, and/or hyperlipidaemic fail to achieve blood pressure, lipid and glycaemic goals, and this failure may in part be explained by physician reluctance to utilize complex combination regimens for fear of off-target effects. Thus, a clear need exists for clinicians to understand the risks and benefits of different pharmacologic, and indeed non-pharmacologic, options in order to maximize treatment outcomes. While intensive lifestyle modification remains an elusive gold standard, newer diabetes targets, including the incretin axis, may offer greater cardiovascular risk reduction than other antidiabetes therapies, although definitive clinical trial data are needed. The glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists exenatide and liraglutide and the dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitors sitagliptin and vildagliptin effectively lower HbA1c; exenatide and liraglutide reduce weight and blood pressure and improve lipid profiles. Sitagliptin and vildagliptin are weight neutral but also appear to improve lipid profiles. Integration of incretin therapies into the therapeutic armamentarium is a promising approach to improving outcomes in T2DM, and perhaps even in reducing complications of T2DM, such as co-morbid hypertension and dyslipidaemia. Additional long-term studies, including CVD end

  10. Impact of the new Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction on Paris flood prevention program

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thepot Regis

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The greater Paris region faces a significant risk of flooding due to potential spill-over from the Seine and the Marne. Because the last major flood occurred in 1910, the event has faded in the collective memory. Consequently, the population and the public authorities have difficulty imagining that such a catastrophe might repeat itself. In parallel, widespread urban expansion into flood zones has considerably aggravated the foreseeable damage if an event of a comparable intensity were to hit the region.In response to this situation, the EPTB Seine Grands Lacs – a public territorial basin establishment– decided to take action to reduce this risk.It began by commissioning a study from the OECD on flood risk prevention in the Seine Basin. This study was presented in January 2014 and highlighted the considerable risk of flooding in or near Paris, which could, affect a total of nearly 5 million people, cause up to €30 billion in direct damage and affect up to 400.000 jobs. It also put forward 14 recommendations that are being implemented by the public authorities, at either the national, basin or local level.The EPTB launched in partnership with the government a second initiative for which it steers and coordinates a coherent, balanced, relevant and gradual programme of 78 flood prevention actions. As a new post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction was adopted in Sendai in March 2015 taking in account lessons learned during the 2005-2015 period, gaps identified and future challenges, this paper addresses the question of the impact of this new international framework on the implementation of the flood prevention of Paris region. One of the main points developed is the necessity to increase public awareness, to enhance disaster preparedness for effective response and to “build back better” in recovery rehabilitation and reconstruction.

  11. Interdisciplinary approach for disaster risk reduction in Valtellina Valley, northern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Carolina; Blahut, Jan; Luna, Byron Quan; Poretti, Ilaria; Camera, Corrado; de Amicis, Mattia; Sterlacchini, Simone

    2010-05-01

    Inside the framework of the European research network Mountain Risks, an interdisciplinary research group has been working in the Consortium of Mountain Municipalities of Valtellina di Tirano (northern Italy). This area has been continuously affected by several mountain hazards such as landslides, debris flows and floods that directly affect the population, and in some cases caused several deaths and million euros of losses. An aim of the interdisciplinary work in this study area, is to integrate different scientific products of the research group, in the areas of risk assessment, management and governance, in order to generate, among others, risk reduction tools addressed to general public and stakeholders. Two types of phenomena have been particularly investigated: debris flows and floods. The scientific products range from modeling to mapping of hazard and risk, emergency planning based on real time decision support systems, surveying for the evaluation of risk perception and preparedness, among others. Outputs from medium scale hazard and risk modeling could be used for decision makers and spatial planners as well as civil protection authorities to have a general overview of the area and indentify hot spots for further detailed analysis. Subsequently, local scale analysis is necessary to define possible events and risk scenarios for emergency planning. As for the modeling of past events and new scenarios of debris flows, physical outputs were used as inputs into physical vulnerability assessment and quantitative risk analysis within dynamic runout models. On a pilot zone, the physical damage was quantified for each affected structure within the context of physical vulnerability and different empirical vulnerability curves were obtained. Prospective economic direct losses were estimated. For floods hazard assessment, different approaches and models are being tested, in order to produce flood maps for various return periods, and related to registered rainfalls

  12. [Risk reduction and drug use in detention: study about the detainees of Liancourt Penitentiary].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sannier, Olivier; Verfaillie, Florent; Lavielle, Dorothée

    2012-07-01

    The prison population is drug users. Recent debates around the provision of devices to reduce the risks associated with drug use (syringe exchange programs and snort kit) lead us to question local practices of the prison population. An anonymous questionnaire was offered to the prison population of the Liancourt penitentiary. The questions addressed the use of drugs before and during incarceration, knowledge of HIV and B and C hepatitis status, taking an opiate substitution treatment and advice on the implementation of syringe exchange programs and snort kit. A percentage of 54.4 of the prisoners responded to the questionnaire. An amount of 60.1 % of respondents consumed at least one drug before incarceration and 43.6 % of respondents consumed at least one drug during their incarceration. Cannabis was the most consumed drug before and during incarceration. Barely half of respondents reported knowing their HIV and hepatitis B and C status. Over 10 % of respondents said they were interesting in establishing needle exchange programs or snort kit. The prison concentrate drug users and is not a repressive tool of efficient risk reduction. The strategies implemented by the medical unit of Liancourt prison require adaptations that warrant development of health resources. Then, only new tools to reduce risks associated with drug use can be established. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  13. Personalized Weight Management Interventions for Cardiovascular Risk Reduction: A Viable Option for African-American Women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franklin, Nina C; Arena, Ross

    2016-01-01

    Obesity is an independent contributor to cardiovascular disease (CVD) and a major driving force behind racial/ethnic and gender disparities in risk. Due to a multitude of interrelating factors (i.e., personal, social, cultural, economic and environmental), African-American (AA) women are disproportionately obese and twice as likely to succumb to CVD, yet they are significantly underrepresented in behavioral weight management interventions. In this selective review we highlight components of the limited interventions shown to enhance weight loss outcomes in this population and make a case for leveraging Web-based technology and artificial intelligence techniques to deliver personalized programs aimed at obesity treatment and CVD risk reduction. Although many of the approaches discussed are generally applicable across populations burdened by disparate rates of obesity and CVD, we specifically focus on AA women due to the disproportionate impact of these non-communicable diseases and the general paucity of interventions targeted to this high-risk group. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Cardiovascular risk reduction in sedentary postmenopausal women during organised physical activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazurek, Krzysztof; Żmijewski, Piotr; Kozdroń, Ewa; Fojt, Anna; Czajkowska, Anna; Szczypiorski, Piotr; Mazurek, Tomasz

    2017-01-01

    Cardiovascular (CV) diseases are a major cause of death in elderly women. Aerobic training improves component CV risk factors. Long-term, higher-intensity, group-based and home-based exercise training has been shown to improve exer-cise performance. However, it is not clear if short-term, group-based or home-based training with an educational programme permanently improves cardiometabolic parameters in elderly women. The aim of the study was to evaluate the effectiveness of organised physical activity programmes dedicated to elderly, sedentary women. Thirty-five sedentary women, aged > 55 years (mean 65.4 ± 7.3 years) were enrolled in a two-week group-based physical training programme of moderate intensity (2.5-5.0 METs) followed by three months of organised, home-based physical activity targeting all major muscle groups with special emphasis on postural muscles, combined with an educational programme about physical activity and CV risk. Eighteen months of self-guided physical activity was the final stage of training. Medical examination and blood samples were collected at baseline and after each step of exercises. Each step of training resulted in a reduction of systolic and diastolic blood pressure (p physical activity at a sufficient level to achieve additional health benefits according to the World Health Organisation. Organised, group-based exercise followed by home-based training and self-guided physical activities constantly improves cardiometabolic parameters and reduces CV risk.

  15. Combining Co-Benefits and Stakeholders Perceptions into Green Infrastructure Selection for Flood Risk Reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alida Alves

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available An important increase in flood risk levels is expected in future decades in many areas around the globe. In addition, the traditional approaches for flood management offer options with low sustainability. As a response, the use of non-traditional drainage measures, also called green infrastructures, has been increasingly suggested in the last years. One important reason for their increasing popularity has been the co-benefits that they offer to the environment. The development of an efficient planning for sustainable urban drainage systems is a complex process that needs the involvement of multiple stakeholders. Moreover, the measures to be adopted should be evaluated considering their potential to achieve multiple benefits related to human well-being, rather than just to flood risk management. In this work, we propose a framework for the selection of green infrastructures on the basis of a co-benefits analysis. The aim is to include the achievement of co-benefits and human well-being into decision-making for flood management, considering the stakeholders’ perceptions to define the most important benefits to be enhanced. The application of the framework presented here to a case study in Ayutthaya, Thailand, shows the importance of including different stakeholder’s opinions. In addition, it shows that decision makers should consider locally defined co-benefits as well as flood risk reduction when defining which green infrastructures to apply.

  16. Analysis of risk-reduction measures for multiunit essential service water systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kohut, P.; Musicki, Z.; Fitzpatrick, R.

    1989-01-01

    Many risk analyses have indicated the potentially significant contribution to core damage frequency (CDF) due to the loss of the essential service water (ESW) function. The ESW system serves as the ultimate heat sink, and its failure can affect numerous safety components and systems, although it does not directly perform a frontline safety function. As such, probabilistic risk assessment studies usually analyze its failures through support system modeling; however, the direct loss of the ESW as an initiator may or may not be explicitly treated. In addition, the actual analysis is made more complex due to the linked initiating event nature of these events, since the system fault trees are coupled to the initiator in these cases. Previously, a specific safety issue was identified concerning the increase in core-melt vulnerability caused by the failure of the ESW system in pressurized water reactor (PWR) multiplant units that have only two service water (SW) pumps per unit with a backup crosstie capability to the other unit. The main objective of the present study was to establish a realistic measure of the core damage vulnerability, to identify potential improvements for the ESW systems, and to obtain generic estimates of their risk-reduction potential and cost-effectiveness

  17. A risk reduction strategy to prevent maternal deaths associated with unsafe abortion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briozzo, L; Vidiella, G; Rodríguez, F; Gorgoroso, M; Faúndes, A; Pons, J E

    2006-11-01

    Worldwide, 13% of maternal deaths are caused by complications of spontaneous or induced abortion, 29% in Uruguay and nearly half (48%) in the Pereira Rossell Hospital. This paper describes a risk reduction strategy for unsafe abortions in Montevideo, Uruguay, where over one-fourth of maternal deaths are caused by unsafe abortion. Although abortion is not legal in Uruguay, women desiring abortions can be counseled before and immediately after to reduce the risk of injury. Women contemplating abortion were invited to attend a "before-abortion" and an "after-abortion" visit at a reproductive health polyclinic. At the "before-abortion" visit, gestational age, condition of the fetus and pathologies were diagnosed and the risks associated with the use of different abortion methods (based on the best available scientific evidence) were described. The "after-abortion" visit allowed for checking for possible complications and offering contraception. From March 2004 through June 2005, 675 women attended the "before-abortion" and 495 the "after-abortion" visit, the number increasing over time. Some women (3.5%) decided not to abort, others were either not pregnant, the fetus/embryo was dead or the woman had a condition that permitted legal termination of pregnancy in the hospital (7.5%). Most women, however, aborted. All women used vaginal misoprostol in the doses recommended in the medical literature. There were no serious complications (one mild infection and two hemorrhages not requiring transfusion). The strategy is effective in reducing unsafe abortions and their health consequences.

  18. Wildfire risk reduction in the United States: Leadership staff perceptions of local fire department roles and responsibilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rachel S. Madsen; Hylton J. G. Haynes; Sarah M. McCaffrey

    2018-01-01

    As wildland fires have had increasing negative impacts on a range of human values, in many parts of the United States (U.S.) and around the world, collaborative risk reduction efforts among agencies, homeowners, and fire departments are needed to improve wildfire safety and mitigate risk. Using interview data from 46 senior officers from local fire departments around...

  19. FRAX TM: un nuevo instrumento para calcular el riesgo absoluto de fracturas a 10 años FRAX TM: A new instrument for calculating 10-year absolute fracture risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haraldo Claus-Hermberg

    2009-10-01

    nature of the proposed endpoint, a new calculator has been proposed: Fracture Risk Assessment Tool FRAX TM, which follows the same objectives of previous models, but integrates and combines several of those factors according to their relative weight. It can estimate absolute risk of hip fracture (or a combination of osteoporotic fractures for the following 10 years. The calculator could be adapted for use in any country by the incorporation of hip fracture incidence and age- and sex-adjusted life expectancy in the same country. This instrument has been presented as a new paradigm to assist in clinical and therapeutic decision-making. In the present review some of its characteristics are discussed, such as: the purported applicability to different populations, the convenience of using 10-year absolute fracture risk for the whole age range under consideration, and whether the efficacy of pharmacological treatment for the prevention of bone fractures in osteoporotic patients can be expected to be equally effective among patients selected for treatment on the basis of this model. Finally, we would like to call attention to the fact that risk thresholds for intervention are not yet clearly defined; those thresholds can obviously be expected to have a profound impact on the number of patients amenable to treatment.

  20. Reduction of Perceived Social Distance as an Explanation for Media's Influence on Personal Risk Perceptions: A Test of the Risk Convergence Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    So, Jiyeon; Nabi, Robin

    2013-01-01

    The risk convergence model proposes reduction of perceived social distance to a mediated personality as a mechanism through which the mass media can influence audiences' personal risk perceptions. As an initial test of the model, this study examined whether 5 audience variables known to facilitate media effects on personal risk…

  1. Earthquake risk reduction in the United States: An assessment of selected user needs and recommendations for the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1994-12-31

    This Assessment was conducted to improve the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) by providing NEHRP agencies with information that supports their user-oriented setting of crosscutting priorities in the NEHRP strategic planning process. The primary objective of this Assessment was to take a ``snapshot`` evaluation of the needs of selected users throughout the major program elements of NEHRP. Secondary objectives were to conduct an assessment of the knowledge that exists (or is being developed by NEHRP) to support earthquake risk reduction, and to begin a process of evaluating how NEHRP is meeting user needs. An identification of NEHRP`s strengths also resulted from the effort, since those strengths demonstrate successful methods that may be useful to NEHRP in the future. These strengths are identified in the text, and many of them represent important achievements since the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act was passed in 1977.

  2. Comparing multifactorial lifestyle interventions and stress management in coronary risk reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundin, Orjan; Lisspers, Jan; Hofman-Bang, Claes; Nygren, Ake; Rydén, Lars; Ohman, Arne

    2003-01-01

    The aim of this study was to compare the effects of residential multifactorial cardiac rehabilitation, outpatient multifactorial rehabilitation, stress management, and standard coronary rehabilitation, on cardiac risk reduction. Out of 144 eligible male patients recently treated with percantaneous transluminal coronary angiography (PTCA), coronary artery bypass graft (CABG), or acute myocardial infarction (AMI), 132 were randomized into this study. All interventions covered a 12-month active intervention, intense during the first months and subsequently leveled out. Main assessments were performed before randomization and after the intervention. Patients offered behavioral rehabilitation showed improved self-reported healthy diet habits and exercise frequency, and higher internal locus of control. Although blood lipids, exercise capacity, body mass, anxiety, depression, and Type A scores were changed in the expected direction, no significant difference emerged between active intervention and the standard care condition. Standard care of today appears to have great potential in particular if supplemented with some kind of stress management.

  3. Traditional and Local Knowledge Practices for Disaster Risk Reduction in Northern Ghana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nsioh Macnight Ngwese

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available In order to deal with recurrent disasters, like floods and droughts coupled with the limited adaptive capacity, in the semiarid regions of Northern Ghana, local communities have no choice but to apply traditional and local knowledge practices. This study seeks to identify such practices employed in selected rural communities in Northern Ghana and to investigate their effectiveness. Data were collected through key informant interviews, household questionnaire surveys, focus group discussions, and participant observations. The findings indicated that although diverse practices were applied to predict and manage local disaster events, skepticism prevailed among locals toward these practices regarding their effectiveness. Due to the lack of science-based tools and systems for disaster prediction and management, local communities continually depended on these knowledge systems and practices. Integrating local and traditional disaster risk reduction (DRR efforts into modern scientific knowledge should be encouraged in order to reduce the vulnerability of local communities to disasters with thorough effectiveness evaluation protocols.

  4. NOAA's Joint Polar Satellite System's Proving Ground and Risk Reduction Program - Bringing New Capabilities to Operations!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sjoberg, B.

    2015-12-01

    This presentation will focus on the NOAA Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) Program's Proving Ground and Risk Reduction (PGRR) initiative and how it has prepared NOAA users to effectively utilize new polar-orbiting capabilities. The PGRR Program was established in 2012, following the launch of the Suomi National Polar Partnership (SNPP) satellite. Two sets of PGRR Projects have been established grouped together in thirteen different initiatives. Details about how these projects have been continually tailored through the years to meet user requirements, will be highlighted. The presenter will focus on how the success of the first set of PGRR projects have been used to evaluate a follow-on set of projects and focus on exactly what the JPSS user community needs to meet their mission requirements. Details on the Dec 2014 PGRR Call-for-Proposals and the projects selected for funding will be discussed.

  5. Developing interpretable models with optimized set reduction for identifying high risk software components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briand, Lionel C.; Basili, Victor R.; Hetmanski, Christopher J.

    1993-01-01

    Applying equal testing and verification effort to all parts of a software system is not very efficient, especially when resources are limited and scheduling is tight. Therefore, one needs to be able to differentiate low/high fault frequency components so that testing/verification effort can be concentrated where needed. Such a strategy is expected to detect more faults and thus improve the resulting reliability of the overall system. This paper presents the Optimized Set Reduction approach for constructing such models, intended to fulfill specific software engineering needs. Our approach to classification is to measure the software system and build multivariate stochastic models for predicting high risk system components. We present experimental results obtained by classifying Ada components into two classes: is or is not likely to generate faults during system and acceptance test. Also, we evaluate the accuracy of the model and the insights it provides into the error making process.

  6. Risk of hospital admission for COPD following smoking cessation and reduction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Godtfredsen, N S; Vestbo, J; Osler, M

    2002-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Little is known about the effects of changes in smoking habits on the subsequent risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between smoking cessation and reduction and admission to hospital for COPD in a general...... continuing heavy smokers (HR 0.93 (95% CI 0.73 to 1.18)). Exclusion of events during the first 5 study years, detailed adjustment for lung function, or restriction of analyses to participants with impaired pulmonary function did not reverse the observed trend. CONCLUSIONS: Self-reported smoking cessation...... by at least 50% between the two initial examinations without quitting and smokers who stopped smoking during this time were compared with continuous heavy smokers using a Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: During the follow up period 1,260 subjects (741 men and 519 women) were admitted to hospital...

  7. Fighting Testing ACAT/FRRP: Automatic Collision Avoidance Technology/Fighter Risk Reduction Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skoog, Mark A.

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the work of the Flight testing Automatic Collision Avoidance Technology/Fighter Risk Reduction Project (ACAT/FRRP). The goal of this project is to develop common modular architecture for all aircraft, and to enable the transition of technology from research to production as soon as possible to begin to reduce the rate of mishaps. The automated Ground Collision Avoidance System (GCAS) system is designed to prevent collision with the ground, by avionics that project the future trajectory over digital terrain, and request an evasion maneuver at the last instance. The flight controls are capable of automatically performing a recovery. The collision avoidance is described in the presentation. Also included in the presentation is a description of the flight test.

  8. Using employee experts to offer an interprofessional diabetes risk reduction program to fellow employees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenz, Thomas L; Gillespie, Nicole D; Skrabal, Maryann Z; Faulkner, Michele A; Skradski, Jessica J; Ferguson, Liz A; Pagenkemper, Joni J; Moore, Geri A; Jorgensen, Diane

    2013-03-01

    A recent increase in the incidence of diabetes and pre-diabetes is causing many employers to spend more of their healthcare benefit budgets to manage the conditions. A self-insured university in the USA has implemented an interprofessional diabetes mellitus risk reduction program using its own employee faculty and staff experts to help fellow employees manage their diabetes and pre-diabetes. The interprofessional team consists of five pharmacists, a dietitian, an exercise physiologist, a health educator and a licensed mental health practitioner. In addition, the participant's physician serves as a consultant to the program, as does a human resources healthcare benefits specialist and a wellness coordinator. The volunteer program takes place at the worksite during regular business hours and is free of charge to the employees. The faculty and staff delivering the program justify the cost of their time through an interprofessional educational model that the program will soon provide to university students.

  9. Community food environment measures in the Alabama Black Belt: Implications for cancer risk reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca Gyawu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In-store measures were utilized to evaluate the availability of healthy food choices and nutrition/health promotion messages for cancer risk reduction in the selected Alabama Black Belt counties/cities. Sixty one retail food outlets (RFOs were audited in 12 Alabama Black Belt cities. Store types included convenience stores (49.2%, restaurants (19.7%, fast food restaurants (16.4%, small supermarkets (8.2%, and large supermarket and farmers' markets (3.3 %, respectively. Although there were low numbers of farmers' markets/street stands and large supermarkets, these had significantly (p < 0.0001 higher health scores than the other store types. A few health promotion messages were highly visible or obscurely positioned in some RFOs. The Alabama Black Belt food environment had limited opportunities for healthy food choices.

  10. Laypersons' understanding of relative risk reductions: Randomised cross-sectional study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristiansen Ivar S

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite increasing recognition of the importance of involving patients in decisions on preventive healthcare interventions, little is known about how well patients understand and utilise information provided on the relative benefits from these interventions. The aim of this study was to explore whether lay people can discriminate between preventive interventions when effectiveness is presented in terms of relative risk reduction (RRR, and whether such discrimination is influenced by presentation of baseline risk. Methods The study was a randomised cross-sectional interview survey of a representative sample (n = 1,519 of lay people with mean age 59 (range 40–98 years in Denmark. In addition to demographic information, respondents were asked to consider a hypothetical drug treatment to prevent heart attack. Its effectiveness was randomly presented as RRR of 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 or 60 percent, and half of the respondents were presented with quantitative information on the baseline risk of heart attack. The respondents had also been asked whether they were diagnosed with hypercholesterolemia or had experienced a heart attack. Results In total, 873 (58% of the respondents consented to the hypothetical treatment. While 49% accepted the treatment when RRR = 10%, the acceptance rate was 58–60% for RRR>10. There was no significant difference in acceptance rates across respondents irrespective of whether they had been presented with quantitative information on baseline risk or not. Conclusion In this study, lay people's decisions about therapy were only slightly influenced by the magnitude of the effect when it was presented in terms of RRR. The results may indicate that lay people have difficulties in discriminating between levels of effectiveness when they are presented in terms of RRR.

  11. The impact of collaborative strategies on disaster risk reduction in Zimbabwe dairy supply chains in 2016

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felix Chari

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Disasters are on the increase globally with accompanying devastating effects on dairy supply chains. The devastating effects, caused by disasters on economies in various countries such as United States of America, Japan, Kenya, Uganda, Mozambique and Zimbabwe call for urgent sustainable mitigating measures in disaster risk reduction. These countries have experienced notable natural and man-made disasters in the past. The disasters negatively impacted the economies of both developed and developing countries, causing misery to people as hunger and poverty drastically increased. Zimbabwe’s dairy industry was not spared from these devastating effects as it was vulnerable to disasters such as droughts and cyclones. Disasters adversely affected supply chains in the country as evidenced by the closure of some dairy firms between the years 2000 and 2014. This article is set against the backdrop of declining output across all agricultural sectors in Zimbabwe, evident particularly in the dairy farming sector which has witnessed inadequate supply of raw milk and dairy products by local producers. The article assesses the impact of dairy organisations’ partnerships with government departments and non-governmental organisations in reducing disaster risks on the dairy supply chain cost efficiency. It also aims to show how partnerships can reduce disaster risks and weighs the benefits of reduced supply chain costs in improving the affordability of milk and milk products to the general public. The study employs a mixed-methods approach comprising structured questionnaires, administered to a sample of 92 respondents out of a randomly sampled population of 122 participants from dairy farming clusters across the country, with an 85% response rate. Key informants in the form of 18 dairy officers were purposively sampled for interviews throughout the dairy farming regions. The research findings will help government in the formulation of public policies for the

  12. Aluminum toxicity risk reduction as a result of reduced acid deposition in Adirondack lakes and ponds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michelena, Toby M; Farrell, Jeremy L; Winkler, David A; Goodrich, Christine A; Boylen, Charles W; Sutherland, James W; Nierzwicki-Bauer, Sandra A

    2016-11-01

    In 1990, the US Congress amended the Clean Air Act (CAA) to reduce regional-scale ecosystem degradation from SO x and NO x emissions which have been responsible for acid deposition in regions such as the Adirondack Mountains of New York State. An ecosystem assessment project was conducted from 1994 to 2012 by the Darrin Fresh Water Institute to determine the effect of these emission reduction policies on aquatic systems. The project investigated water chemistry and biota in 30 Adirondack lakes and ponded waters. Although regulatory changes made in response to the 1990 CAA amendments resulted in a reduction of acid deposition within the Adirondacks, the ecosystem response to these reductions is complicated. A statistical analysis of SO 4 , pH, Al, and DOC data collected during this project demonstrates positive change in response to decreased deposition. The changes in water chemistry also have lowered the risk of Al toxicity to brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis [Mitchill]), which allowed the re-introduction of this species to Brooktrout Lake from which it had been extirpated. However, pH and labile aluminum (Al im ) fluctuate and are not strongly correlated to changes in acid deposition. As such, toxicity to S. fontinalis also is cyclic and provides rationale for the difficulties inherent in re-establishing resident populations in impacted aquatic environments. Overall, aquatic ecosystems of the Adirondacks show a positive response to reduced deposition driven by changes in environmental policy, but the response is more complex and indicates an ecosystem-wide interaction between aquatic and watershed components of the ecosystem.

  13. Pronurturance Plus at birth: A risk reduction strategy for preventing postpartum haemorrhage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saxton, A; Fahy, K; Hastie, C

    2016-06-01

    Postpartum haemorrhage (PPH) rates continue to rise in the developed world. A recent study found that any skin-to-skin contact and breastfeeding within 30min of birth was associated with an almost 50% reduction in PPH rates. Improved oxytocin release is the biological reason proposed to explain this. The combination of skin-to-skin contact and breastfeeding within 30min of birth is termed 'Pronurturance'. Midwifery theory and research claims that optimal third stage care is more holistic than simple Pronurturnace which suggests that further reductions in PPH rates may be possible. What can midwives and women do to minimise blood loss in the third and fourth stages of labour? We present a new theory that describes and explains how to optimise the woman's reproductive psychophysiology in the third and fourth stages of labour to ensure a well contracted uterus which inhibits excessive bleeding regardless of risk status or whether active management was used. In developing the Pronurturance Plus theory we expand upon what is already known about oxytocin in relation to simple pronurturance to integrate concepts from birth territory theory, cognitive neuroscience, mindfulness psychology and the autonomic nervous system to develop an holistic understanding of how to optimise care and minimise PPH. Pronurturance Plus is a psycho-biologically grounded theory which is consistent with existing evidence. It is free, natural and socially desirable. Copyright © 2015 Australian College of Midwives. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Multi scale Disaster Risk Reduction Systems Space and Community based Experiences over HKH Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurung, D. R.; Shrestha, M.; Shrestha, N.; Debnath, B.; Jishi, G.; Bajracharya, R.; Dhonju, H. K.; Pradhan, S.

    2014-11-01

    An increasing trend in the recurrence of natural disasters and associated impacts due to Floods, Glacier Lake out bursts, landslides and forest fire is reported over Hindu Kush Himalyan (HKH) region. Climate change and anthropogenic coupled factors are identified as primary factors for such increased vulnerability. The large degree of poverty, lack of infrastructure, poor accessibility and uncertainties involved in understanding high altitude land surface and climate dynamics poses serious challenges in reducing disaster vulnerability and mitigating disaster impacts. In this context effective development of Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) protocols and mechanisms have been realized as an urgent need. The paper presents the adoption and experiences of multi scale DRR systems across different Himalayan member countries ranging from community based indigenous early warning to space based emergency response and decision support systems. The Establishment of a Regional Flood Information System (HKH-HYCOS) over Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) and Indus river basins promoted the timely exchange of flood data and information for the reduction of flood vulnerability within and among the participating countries. Satellite based forest fire alert systems evoked significant response among diverse stakeholders to optimize fire incidence and control. Satellite rainfall estimation products, satellite altimetry based flood early warning systems, flood inundation modelling and products, model derived hydrology flow products from different global data-sharing networks constitutes diverse information to support multi scale DRR systems. Community-based Flood Early Warning System (FEWS) enabled by wireless technology established over the Singara and Jiadhal rivers in Assam also stands as one of the promising examples of minimizing flood risk. Disaster database and information system and decision support tools in Nepal serves as potential tool to support diverse stakeholders.

  15. Centrality as a Method for the Evaluation of Semantic Resources for Disaster Risk Reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Otakar Čerba

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Clear and straightforward communication is a key aspect of all human activities related to crisis management. Since crisis management activities involve professionals from various disciplines using different terminology, clear and straightforward communication is difficult to achieve. Semantics as a broad science can help to overcome communication difficulties. This research focuses on the evaluation of available semantic resources including ontologies, thesauri, and controlled vocabularies for disaster risk reduction as part of crisis management. The main idea of the study is that the most appropriate source of broadly understandable terminology is such a semantic resource, which is accepted by—or at least connected to the majority of other resources. Important is not only the number of interconnected resources, but also the concrete position of the resource in the complex network of Linked Data resources. Although this is usually done by user experience, objective methods of resource semantic centrality can be applied. This can be described by centrality methods used mainly in graph theory. This article describes the calculation of four types of centrality methods (Outdegree, Indegree, Closeness, and Betweenness applied to 160 geographic concepts published as Linked Data and related to disaster risk reduction. Centralities were calculated for graph structures containing particular semantic resources as nodes and identity links as edges. The results show that (with some discussed exceptions the datasets with high values of centrality serve as important information resources, but they also include more concepts from preselected 160 geographic concepts. Therefore, they could be considered as the most suitable resources of terminology to make communication in the domain easier. The main research goal is to automate the semantic resources evaluation and to apply a well-known theoretical method (centrality to the semantic issues of Linked Data. It

  16. Willingness-to-accept reductions in HIV risks: conditional economic incentives in Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galárraga, Omar; Sosa-Rubí, Sandra G.; Infante, César; Gertler, Paul J.; Bertozzi, Stefano M.

    2014-01-01

    The objective of this study was to measure willingness-to-accept (WTA) reductions in risks for HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STI) using conditional economic incentives (CEI) among men who have sex with men (MSM), including male sex workers (MSW) in Mexico City. A survey experiment was conducted with 1,745 MSM and MSW (18-25 years of age) who received incentive offers to decide first whether to accept monthly prevention talks and STI testing; and then a second set of offers to accept to stay free of STIs (verified by quarterly biological testing). The survey used random-starting-point and iterative offers. WTA was estimated with a maximum likelihood double-bounded dichotomous choice model. The average acceptance probabilities were: 73.9% for the monthly model, and 80.4% for the quarterly model. The incentive-elasticity of participation in the monthly model was 0.222, and it was 0.515 in the quarterly model. For a combination program with monthly prevention talks, and staying free of curable STI, the implied WTA was USD$288 per person per year, but it was lower for MSW: USD$156 per person per year. Thus, some of the populations at highest risk of HIV infection (MSM & MSW) seem well disposed to participate in a CEI program for HIV and STI prevention in Mexico. The average willingness-to-accept estimate is within the range of feasible allocations for prevention in the local context. Given the potential impact, Mexico, a leader in conditional cash transfers for human development and poverty reduction, could extend that successful model for targeted HIV/STI prevention. PMID:23377757

  17. Past-Forwarding Ancient Calamities. Pathways for Making Archaeology Relevant in Disaster Risk Reduction Research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felix Riede

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Despite the alleged mastery of humans over nature, contemporary societies are acutely vulnerable to natural hazards. In interaction with vulnerable communities, these transform into catastrophes. In a deep historical perspective, human communities of many different kinds have been affected by numerous kinds of natural disasters that may provide useful data for scenario-based risk reduction measures vis-à-vis future calamities. The low frequency of high magnitude hazards necessitates a deep time perspective for understanding both the natural and human dimensions of such events in an evidence-based manner. This paper focusses on the eruption of the Laacher See volcano in western Germany about 13,000 years ago as an example of such a rare, but potentially highly devastating event. It merges Lee Clarke’s sociological argument for also thinking about such very rare events in disaster planning and David Staley’s notion of thinking historically about the future in order to ‘past-forward’ such information on past constellations of vulnerability and resilience. ‘Past-forwarding’ is here intended to signal the use of such deep historical information in concerns for contemporary and future resilience. This paper outlines two pathways for making archaeological information on past extreme environmental events relevant in disaster risk reduction: First, the combination of information from the geosciences and the humanities holds the potential to transform ancient hazards from matters of fact to matters of concern and, hence, to more effectively raise awareness of the issues concerned. Second, in addition to information on past calamities feeding into preparatory scenarios, I argue that the well-established outreach channels available to the humanities (museums, in particular provide powerful platforms for communication to multiple publics.

  18. Can I Count on Getting Better? Association between Math Anxiety and Poorer Understanding of Medical Risk Reductions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolison, Jonathan J; Morsanyi, Kinga; O'Connor, Patrick A

    2016-10-01

    Lower numerical ability is associated with poorer understanding of health statistics, such as risk reductions of medical treatment. For many people, despite good numeracy skills, math provokes anxiety that impedes an ability to evaluate numerical information. Math-anxious individuals also report less confidence in their ability to perform math tasks. We hypothesized that, independent of objective numeracy, math anxiety would be associated with poorer responding and lower confidence when calculating risk reductions of medical treatments. Objective numeracy was assessed using an 11-item objective numeracy scale. A 13-item self-report scale was used to assess math anxiety. In experiment 1, participants were asked to interpret the baseline risk of disease and risk reductions associated with treatment options. Participants in experiment 2 were additionally provided a graphical display designed to facilitate the processing of math information and alleviate effects of math anxiety. Confidence ratings were provided on a 7-point scale. Individuals of higher objective numeracy were more likely to respond correctly to baseline risks and risk reductions associated with treatment options and were more confident in their interpretations. Individuals who scored high in math anxiety were instead less likely to correctly interpret the baseline risks and risk reductions and were less confident in their risk calculations as well as in their assessments of the effectiveness of treatment options. Math anxiety predicted confidence levels but not correct responding when controlling for objective numeracy. The graphical display was most effective in increasing confidence among math-anxious individuals. The findings suggest that math anxiety is associated with poorer medical risk interpretation but is more strongly related to confidence in interpretations. © The Author(s) 2015.

  19. Left atrial appendage closure devices for cardiovascular risk reduction in atrial fibrillation patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cruz-Gonzalez I

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Ignacio Cruz-Gonzalez,* Juan Carlos Rama-Merchan,* Javier Rodriguez-Collado, Javier Martin-Moreiras, Alejandro Diego-Nieto, Antonio Arribas-Jimenez, Pedro Luís SanchezDepartment of Cardiology, University Hospital of Cardiology and IBSAL, Salamanca, Spain *Ignacio Cruz-Gonzalez and Juan Carlos Rama-Merchan have contributed equally to this work and should be considered co-first authors Abstract: Atrial fibrillation (AF is the most common sustained arrhythmia in clinical practice. AF is associated with a 4–5-fold increased risk of stroke and systemic embolism. Oral anticoagulant is the first-line therapy for this purpose, but it has various limitations and is often contraindicated or underutilized. Autopsy and surgical data have suggested that 90% of atrial thrombi in nonvalvular AF patients originate from the left atrial appendage, leading to the development of percutaneous closure for thromboembolic prevention. This paper examines the current evidence on left atrial appendage closure devices for cardiovascular risk reduction in AF patients. Keywords: atrial fibrillation, left atrial appendage, stroke, oral anticoagulant, percutaneous closure, thromboembolic prevention

  20. Gender identity, healthcare access, and risk reduction among Malaysia’s mak nyah community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibson, Britton A.; Brown, Shan-Estelle; Rutledge, Ronnye; Wickersham, Jeffrey A.; Kamarulzaman, Adeeba; Altice, Frederick L.

    2016-01-01

    Transgender women (TGW) face compounded levels of stigma and discrimination, resulting in multiple health risks and poor health outcomes. TGW identities are erased by forcing them into binary sex categories in society or treating them as men who have sex with men (MSM). In Malaysia, where both civil and religious law criminalize them for their identities, many TGW turn to sex work with inconsistent prevention methods, which increases their health risks. This qualitative study aims to understand how the identities of TGW sex workers shapes their healthcare utilization patterns and harm reduction behaviours. In-depth, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 21 male-to-female transgender (mak nyah) sex workers in Malaysia. Interviews were transcribed, translated into English, and analysed using thematic coding. Results suggest that TGW identity is shaped at an early age followed by incorporation into the mak nyah community where TGW were assisted in gender transition and introduced to sex work. While healthcare was accessible, it failed to address the multiple healthcare needs of TGW. Pressure for gender-affirming health procedures and fear of HIV and sexually transmitted infection screening led to potentially hazardous health behaviours. These findings have implications for developing holistic, culturally-sensitive prevention and healthcare services for TGW. PMID:26824463

  1. Regulatory Risk Reduction for Advanced Reactor Technologies - FY2016 Status and Work Plan Summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moe, Wayne Leland

    2016-01-01

    Millions of public and private sector dollars have been invested over recent decades to realize greater efficiency, reliability, and the inherent and passive safety offered by advanced nuclear reactor technologies. However, a major challenge in experiencing those benefits resides in the existing U.S. regulatory framework. This framework governs all commercial nuclear plant construction, operations, and safety issues and is highly large light water reactor (LWR) technology centric. The framework must be modernized to effectively deal with non-LWR advanced designs if those designs are to become part of the U.S energy supply. The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Advanced Reactor Technologies (ART) Regulatory Risk Reduction (RRR) initiative, managed by the Regulatory Affairs Department at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL), is establishing a capability that can systematically retire extraneous licensing risks associated with regulatory framework incompatibilities. This capability proposes to rely heavily on the perspectives of the affected regulated community (i.e., commercial advanced reactor designers/vendors and prospective owner/operators) yet remain tuned to assuring public safety and acceptability by regulators responsible for license issuance. The extent to which broad industry perspectives are being incorporated into the proposed framework makes this initiative unique and of potential benefit to all future domestic non-LWR applicants

  2. Regulatory Risk Reduction for Advanced Reactor Technologies – FY2016 Status and Work Plan Summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moe, Wayne Leland [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-08-01

    Millions of public and private sector dollars have been invested over recent decades to realize greater efficiency, reliability, and the inherent and passive safety offered by advanced nuclear reactor technologies. However, a major challenge in experiencing those benefits resides in the existing U.S. regulatory framework. This framework governs all commercial nuclear plant construction, operations, and safety issues and is highly large light water reactor (LWR) technology centric. The framework must be modernized to effectively deal with non-LWR advanced designs if those designs are to become part of the U.S energy supply. The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Advanced Reactor Technologies (ART) Regulatory Risk Reduction (RRR) initiative, managed by the Regulatory Affairs Department at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL), is establishing a capability that can systematically retire extraneous licensing risks associated with regulatory framework incompatibilities. This capability proposes to rely heavily on the perspectives of the affected regulated community (i.e., commercial advanced reactor designers/vendors and prospective owner/operators) yet remain tuned to assuring public safety and acceptability by regulators responsible for license issuance. The extent to which broad industry perspectives are being incorporated into the proposed framework makes this initiative unique and of potential benefit to all future domestic non-LWR applicants

  3. Disaster risk reduction in the Omusati and Oshana regions of Namibia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elina Amadhila

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Namibia often experiences heavy rains in the north and north-eastern parts of the country, which results in severe flooding. For this reason, the country has endorsed the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA which seeks to develop the resilience of nations and communities to disasters and to assist countries to move away from the approach of emergency response to one of integrated disaster risk reduction. The aim of this article is to assess the resilience of the communities within the identified regions. A quantitative questionnaire was designed to assess people at risk of disaster related impacts. The questionnaire used 20 indicators to measure the level of progress at local level and how local governance plays a role in the mitigation and management of disasters. Analysis of data was done on a limited number of descriptors such as age, gender and local governance involvement, amongst others. There was generally a very high perception of threat (38% in the study regions. Women perceived threat more accurately (mean = 4.09 than men. The community perceived threat more accurately than local government and civil society (mean = 4.08.

  4. Investing in finite-life carbon emissions reduction program under risk and idiosyncratic uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fouilloux, Jessica; Moraux, Franck; Viviani, Jean-Laurent

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims at emphasizing the ability of new frameworks of real option model to highlight key characteristics of industrial Carbon Emissions Reduction Program investment decision. We develop both theoretical arguments and numerical simulations with structural parameters calibrated on real-life data. We find that both radical uncertainty and risk lead to speed-up green investments, compared to the predictions of real option models that are normally used in green investment literature. The conventional “wait and see” attitude, questioned in recent developments of the real option theory, is not validated. In conclusion, our results should foster companies to implement green investments and help governments to define appropriate incentives to encourage green investments. Of particular note, the paper highlights that finance theory is not necessarily an obstacle to green investment decisions. -- Highlights: •We use real option model to identify key features of CERP investment decision. •We determine the optimal carbon price threshold to undertake a CERP. •Investment decision is a non-monotonic function of idiosyncratic uncertainty. •Increasing uncertainty until a moderate level can accelerate investment decision. •Decreasing idiosyncratic risk can accelerate investment decision

  5. Gender identity, healthcare access, and risk reduction among Malaysia's mak nyah community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibson, Britton A; Brown, Shan-Estelle; Rutledge, Ronnye; Wickersham, Jeffrey A; Kamarulzaman, Adeeba; Altice, Frederick L

    2016-01-01

    Transgender women (TGW) face compounded levels of stigma and discrimination, resulting in multiple health risks and poor health outcomes. TGW identities are erased by forcing them into binary sex categories in society or treating them as men who have sex with men (MSM). In Malaysia, where both civil and religious law criminalise them for their identities, many TGW turn to sex work with inconsistent prevention methods, which increases their health risks. This qualitative study aims to understand how the identities of TGW sex workers shapes their healthcare utilisation patterns and harm reduction behaviours. In-depth, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 21 male-to-female transgender (mak nyah) sex workers in Malaysia. Interviews were transcribed, translated into English, and analysed using thematic coding. Results suggest that TGW identity is shaped at an early age followed by incorporation into the mak nyah community where TGW were assisted in gender transition and introduced to sex work. While healthcare was accessible, it failed to address the multiple healthcare needs of TGW. Pressure for gender-affirming health procedures and fear of HIV and sexually transmitted infection screening led to potentially hazardous health behaviours. These findings have implications for developing holistic, culturally sensitive prevention and healthcare services for TGW.

  6. Measuring success in a pesticide risk reduction program among migrant farmworkers in Colorado.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vela Acosta, Martha Soledad; Chapman, Phillip; Bigelow, Philip L; Kennedy, Catherine; Buchan, Roy M

    2005-03-01

    Farmworkers in the US largely consist of young undocumented Hispanics with a median education of 6 years and limited English skills. The High Plains Intermountain Center for Agricultural Health and Safety bilingual pesticide risk reduction program, which complied with the Worker Protection Standard for migrant farmworkers was evaluated. A pretest/posttest comparison of farmworkers (n = 152) assigned to either the experimental or control group was used. Independent variables included demographics, agricultural experience, and health locus of control. Dependent variables were pesticide knowledge, safety risk perception (SRP), and safety-behavior outcomes. The bilingual pesticide program effectively increased farmworker's pesticide knowledge (P = 0.0001), SRP (P = 0.0001), and two (out of four) behavior outcomes. Workers with external health locus of control were less likely to adopt safety behaviors (P = 0.0001). The cognitive decision-making process whereby farmworkers' readiness to change and permanently adopt safety behaviors was supported by the pesticide program. Our results support the need for long-term sustained bilingual, intervention programs that demonstrated effectiveness using integrative methodology.

  7. Navigating complexity through knowledge coproduction: Mainstreaming ecosystem services into disaster risk reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyers, Belinda; Nel, Jeanne L; O'Farrell, Patrick J; Sitas, Nadia; Nel, Deon C

    2015-06-16

    Achieving the policy and practice shifts needed to secure ecosystem services is hampered by the inherent complexities of ecosystem services and their management. Methods for the participatory production and exchange of knowledge offer an avenue to navigate this complexity together with the beneficiaries and managers of ecosystem services. We develop and apply a knowledge coproduction approach based on social-ecological systems research and assess its utility in generating shared knowledge and action for ecosystem services. The approach was piloted in South Africa across four case studies aimed at reducing the risk of disasters associated with floods, wildfires, storm waves, and droughts. Different configurations of stakeholders (knowledge brokers, assessment teams, implementers, and bridging agents) were involved in collaboratively designing each study, generating and exchanging knowledge, and planning for implementation. The approach proved useful in the development of shared knowledge on the sizable contribution of ecosystem services to disaster risk reduction. This knowledge was used by stakeholders to design and implement several actions to enhance ecosystem services, including new investments in ecosystem restoration, institutional changes in the private and public sector, and innovative partnerships of science, practice, and policy. By bringing together multiple disciplines, sectors, and stakeholders to jointly produce the knowledge needed to understand and manage a complex system, knowledge coproduction approaches offer an effective avenue for the improved integration of ecosystem services into decision making.

  8. An obesity/cardiometabolic risk reduction disease management program: a population-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villagra, Victor G

    2009-04-01

    Obesity is a critical health concern that has captured the attention of public and private healthcare payers who are interested in controlling costs and mitigating the long-term economic consequences of the obesity epidemic. Population-based approaches to obesity management have been proposed that take advantage of a chronic care model (CCM), including patient self-care, the use of community-based resources, and the realization of care continuity through ongoing communications with patients, information technology, and public policy changes. Payer-sponsored disease management programs represent an important conduit to delivering population-based care founded on similar CCM concepts. Disease management is founded on population-based disease identification, evidence-based care protocols, and collaborative practices between clinicians. While substantial clinician training, technology infrastructure commitments, and financial support at the payer level will be needed for the success of disease management programs in obesity and cardiometabolic risk reduction, these barriers can be overcome with the proper commitment. Disease management programs represent an important tool to combat the growing societal risks of overweight and obesity.

  9. Effects of Community Based Educational Prevention Program of Drug Abuse in Reduction of High Risk Behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H Aranpour

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Overcoming social problems requires a participatory approach. This study was performed in order to determine the effect of community based educational prevention program of drug abuse in reduction of high risk behavior. Methods: This study was a community based participatory research. According to planned approach to community health model, "the health companion group" was established with participation of public representatives of villages, researchers, and managers of health sectors. Need assessment and priority setting of health problems was done. Drug abuse was selected as the topmost priority of health problems. By interviewing 10 year olds and older members of households, the questionnaires were completed. By conducting workshops, distributing educational pamphlets and face to face training for six months, the educational program was carried out. After this period, the study population was interviewed again. Data was analyzed by SPSS software, X2, and T tests. Results: The mean score of drug abuse related high risk behavior was 26.8 +/- 2.05 before educational program and 25.2 ±2.3 after the program. The mean score of psychological health was 26.2±5.8 before educational program and 26.4±5.7 after the program. The rate of negative drug abusing related behavior decreased and positive behavior increased after the educational program. Conclusion: The community based participatory research with participation of the public can be a proper pattern to prevent drug abuse and related high risk behaviors and as a result reduce costs and complications of this problem.

  10. Infant pacifiers for reduction in risk of sudden infant death syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Psaila, Kim; Foster, Jann P; Pulbrook, Neil; Jeffery, Heather E

    2017-04-05

    Sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) has been most recently defined as the sudden unexpected death of an infant less than one year of age, with onset of the fatal episode apparently occurring during sleep, that remains unexplained after a thorough investigation, including the performance of a complete autopsy and a review of the circumstances of death and clinical history. Despite the success of several prevention campaigns, SIDS remains a leading cause of infant mortality. In 1994, a 'triple risk model' for SIDS was proposed that described SIDS as an event that results from the intersection of three factors: a vulnerable infant; a critical development period in homeostatic control (age related); and an exogenous stressor. The association between pacifier (dummy) use and reduced incidence of SIDS has been shown in epidemiological studies since the early 1990s. Pacifier use, given its low cost, might be a cost-effective intervention for SIDS prevention if it is confirmed effective in randomised controlled trials. To determine whether the use of pacifiers during sleep versus no pacifier during sleep reduces the risk of SIDS. We used the standard search strategy of the Cochrane Neonatal Review Group to search the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL 2016, Issue 2), MEDLINE via PubMed, Embase, and CINAHL to 16 March 2016. We also searched clinical trials databases, conference proceedings, and the reference lists of retrieved articles for randomised controlled trials and quasi-randomised trials. Published and unpublished controlled trials using random and quasi-random allocations of infants born at term and at preterm (less than 37 weeks' gestation) or with low birth weight (pacifiers for reduction in risk of SIDS. We found no randomised control trial evidence on which to support or refute the use of pacifiers for the prevention of SIDS.

  11. Cardiovascular risk reduction and weight management at a hospital-based postpartum preeclampsia clinic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janmohamed, Rahim; Montgomery-Fajic, Erin; Sia, Winnie; Germaine, Debbie; Wilkie, Jodi; Khurana, Rshmi; Nerenberg, Kara A

    2015-04-01

    Women who develop preeclampsia during pregnancy are at high risk of developing future chronic diseases, including premature cardiovascular disease. We have established an interdisciplinary clinic that aims to prevent cardiovascular disease through educational counselling focused on lifestyle modifications in the early postpartum period. The objective of this study was to evaluate changes in weight and cardiovascular risk factors in participating women after six months of attendance at the clinic. We conducted a retrospective chart review of women who had a pregnancy complicated by preeclampsia, and who subsequently attended the Postpartum Preeclampsia Clinic. Study subjects had baseline assessments of lifestyle, physical, and laboratory parameters. Individualized goals for cardiovascular risk reduction and lifestyle were established, centering on physical activity and dietary modifications. The primary outcome was change in weight. Over the study period, 21 women were seen for a minimum of six months of follow-up. At an average (± SD) of 4.4 ± 1.4 months postpartum, subjects showed a non-significant improvement in weight (mean weight loss of 0.4 ± 4.5 kg) and BMI (mean decrease in BMI 0.1 ± 1.7 kg/m2). Physical activity improved significantly, from 14% of subjects participating in physical activity before pregnancy to 76% at a mean of 4.4 months postpartum. This study has demonstrated the early benefits of a longitudinal interdisciplinary intervention with counselling about lifestyle modifications for prevention of cardiovascular disease in women with recent preeclampsia. A study with a larger sample size and longer duration of follow-up is planned to confirm these findings.

  12. Gemitis : an integrated and participative risk reduction strategy for the sustainable development of cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masure, P.

    2003-04-01

    The GEMITIS method has been implemented since 1995 into a global and integrated Risk Reduction Strategy for improving the seismic risk-assessment effectiveness in urban areas, including the generation of crisis scenarios and mid- to long term- seismic impact assessment. GEMITIS required us to provide more precise definitions of notions in common use by natural-hazard specialists, such as elements at risk and vulnerability. Until then, only the physical and human elements had been considered, and analysis of their vulnerability referred to their fragility in the face of aggression by nature. We have completed this approach by also characterizing the social and cultural vulnerability of a city and its inhabitants, and, with a wider scope, the functional vulnerability of the "urban system". This functional vulnerability depends upon the relations between the system elements (weak links in chains, functional relays, and defense systems) and upon the city's relations with the outside world (interdependence). Though well developed in methods for evaluating industrial risk (fault-tree analysis, event-tree analysis, multiple defense barriers, etc.), this aspect had until now been ignored by the "hard-science" specialists working on natural hazards. Based on the implementation of an Urban System Exposure methodology, we were able to identify specific human, institutional, or functional vulnerability factors for each urban system, which until had been very little discussed by risk-analysis and civil-protection specialists. In addition, we have defined the new concept of "main stakes" of the urban system, ranked by order of social value (or collective utility). Obviously, vital or strategic issues must be better resistant or protected against natural hazards than issues of secondary importance. The ranking of exposed elements of a city in terms of "main stakes" provides a very useful guide for adapting vulnerability studies and for orienting preventive actions. For this

  13. Application of Probabilistic Modeling to Quantify the Reduction Levels of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Attributable to Chronic Aflatoxins Exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wambui, Joseph M; Karuri, Edward G; Ojiambo, Julia A; Njage, Patrick M K

    2017-01-01

    Epidemiological studies show a definite connection between areas of high aflatoxin content and a high occurrence of human hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Hepatitis B virus in individuals further increases the risk of HCC. The two risk factors are prevalent in rural Kenya and continuously predispose the rural populations to HCC. A quantitative cancer risk assessment therefore quantified the levels at which potential pre- and postharvest interventions reduce the HCC risk attributable to consumption of contaminated maize and groundnuts. The assessment applied a probabilistic model to derive probability distributions of HCC cases and percentage reductions levels of the risk from secondary data. Contaminated maize and groundnuts contributed to 1,847 ± 514 and 158 ± 52 HCC cases per annum, respectively. The total contribution of both foods to the risk was additive as it resulted in 2,000 ± 518 cases per annum. Consumption and contamination levels contributed significantly to the risk whereby lower age groups were most affected. Nonetheless, pre- and postharvest interventions might reduce the risk by 23.0-83.4% and 4.8-95.1%, respectively. Therefore, chronic exposure to aflatoxins increases the HCC risk in rural Kenya, but a significant reduction of the risk can be achieved by applying specific pre- and postharvest interventions.

  14. Nutritional approaches in the risk reduction and management of Alzheimer's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mi, Weiqian; van Wijk, Nick; Cansev, Mehmet; Sijben, John W C; Kamphuis, Patrick J G H

    2013-09-01

    Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a heterogeneous and devastating neurodegenerative disease with increasing socioeconomic burden for society. In the past 30 y, notwithstanding advances in the understanding of the pathogenesis of the disease and consequent development of therapeutic approaches to novel pathogenic targets, no cure has so far emerged. This contribution focuses on recent nutritional approaches in the risk reduction and management of AD with emphasis on factors providing a rationale for nutritional approaches in AD, including compromised nutritional status, altered nutrient uptake and metabolism, and nutrient requirements for synapse formation. Collectively these factors are believed to result in specific nutritional requirement in AD. The chapter also emphasizes investigated nutritional interventions in patients with AD, including studies with single nutrients and with the specific nutrient combination Fortasyn Connect and discusses the current shift of paradigm to intervene in earlier stages of AD, which offers opportunities for investigating nutritional strategies to reduce the risk for disease progression. Fortasyn Connect was designed to enhance synapse formation and function in AD by addressing the putative specific nutritional requirements and contains docosahexaenoic acid, eicosapentaenoic acid, uridine-5'-mono-phosphate, choline, phospholipids, antioxidants, and B vitamins. Two randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with the medical food Souvenaid, containing Fortasyn Connect, showed that this intervention improved memory performance in mild, drug-naïve patients with AD. Electroencephalography outcome in one of these clinical studies suggests that Souvenaid has an effect on brain functional connectivity, which is a derivative of changed synaptic activity. Thus, these studies suggest that nutritional requirements in AD can be successfully addressed and result in improvements in behavioral and neuro-physiological alterations that are characteristic to AD

  15. Cost and risk reduction using upfront licensing in Canada. Annex 15

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Snell, V.G.

    2002-01-01

    The paper summarizes the use of 'up-front' licensing in Canada - how licensing requirements are defined, and met - in advance of a project commitment. The approach to licensing in Canada has allowed flexibility in development of new designs. Since licensing was originally risk-based, and current regulatory policy allows cost-benefit considerations as part of the decision making, risk can be and should be used in novel circumstances as a licensing tool. Since the licensing framework is non-prescriptive, innovative approaches to design can be introduced and dispositioned without changing the legal structure. This flexibility has been used in several up-front licensing reviews: a small urban heating reactor, repeat CANDU 6 generating station units, and the single unit CANDU 9 generating station. In the future we expect to apply it to advanced designs, as an essential part of risk reduction and customer confidence in the product. The important lessons learned in Canada include: Up-front licensing is essential to reduce the risk of licensing-related delays once a project has been committed. It requires a significant investment in time and effort from both the designer and the regulator; The most effective scope for up-front licensing is for the regulator to thoroughly assess novel concepts, test the design against changed domestic requirements, and follow-up on known difficult areas; and for the designer to ensure foreign requirements are incorporated. There is little benefit in certifying the design in detail; Although it would be satisfying to have legally-binding certification, in the end there can be no legal obligation on the regulator, and agreement is pursued on the basis of good faith that the regulator will not make arbitrary decisions and that the designer will meet agreed targets or requirements; In almost all circumstances, issues will arise that are beyond the current 'rules', however expressed. Rather than rushing to create new rules, one reaches a

  16. The Household Risk Perception instrument and the Self-Efficacy in Environmental Risk Reduction instrument: psychometric testing using principal component analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oneal, Gail; Odom-Maryon, Tamara; Postma, Julie; Hill, Wade; Butterfield, Patricia

    2013-09-01

    To report the psychometric testing of the Household Risk Perception and Self-Efficacy in Environmental Risk Reduction instruments using principal components analysis. There are limited instruments available to test household risk perception and self-efficacy related to environmental health behaviours. The Household Risk Perception instrument was developed to measure personal perceptions of household environmental health risks. The Self-Efficacy in Environmental Risk Reduction instrument was designed to measure caregivers' confidence in taking steps to reduce household risks. An exploratory analysis of previous data was undertaken. Baseline data from 235 caregivers enrolled in a randomized clinical trial testing a healthy housing intervention were collected between 2006-2009. Principal components analysis was used to determine principal components from measured responses to each instrument. Components were explored and compared to constructs used to design the original instruments. A five-component structure showed the simplest solution and explained 65% of variance in the Household Risk Perception analysis. Cronbach's alpha values indicated satisfactory internal consistency for four of five identified components. Risk perception varied according to available sensory input of the specific risk. A four-component structure explained 64% of the variance in the Self-Efficacy in Environmental Risk Reduction analysis. Cronbach's alpha values were satisfactory. Items mapped to steps in an action-oriented process vs. agent-specific actions. Results from both analyses suggest that environmental tobacco smoke is perceived differently than other household risks. Previously, both instruments relied on item reliability and content validity testing. This study provides a basis for further instrument revision and theoretical testing. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  17. Earthquake Seismic Risk Reduction in Ohio: ODNR's Efforts to Address Issues with Natural and Induced Seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Besana-Ostman, G. M.

    2013-05-01

    With the increasing concerns regarding both natural and induced seismicity in Ohio, ODNR (Ohio Department of Natural Resources) initial efforts on seismic risk reduction paved way to various changes and improvement to tackle several major issues. For natural earthquakes, regional seismicity indicates a NE-SW structure in the northern portion of the area associated with a number of moderate historical earthquakes but no active trace identified. On the other hand, earthquakes of 1986 and 2011 are most probably incidents of induced seismicity that trigger more public uproar against disposal of regulated waste waters through injections. ODNR, in efforts to adapt with increasing need to regulate all operations related to both the Utica and Marcellus shale play within the state, had recently strengthen itself both through additional human resources and improved infrastructure. Tougher regulations and additional field tests were required that took effect immediately when a M4 earthquake was associated with the operations of an injection well. Public meetings were undertaken focused on educating many local inhabitants related to oil and gas operations, hydraulic fracturing, injection wells, and seismicity. Trainings for new and existing staff were regularly done especially for field inspection, data management and technology advancements. Considering the existing seismic stations that are few and distant related to sites of the injection wells, additional seismic stations were installed to gather baseline data and monitor for earthquakes within the injection area(s). Furthermore, to assess if the sites of the injection wells are safe from active structures, initial geomorphic and structural analyses indicated possible active faults in the northern portion of state oriented NE-SW. With the above-mentioned recent changes, ODNR had made a significant leap not only in the improvement of its principal regulatory role in the state for oil and gas operations but also in its

  18. Tobacco smoke-related health effects induced by 1,3-butadiene and strategies for risk reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soeteman-Hernández, Lya G; Bos, Peter M J; Talhout, Reinskje

    2013-12-01

    1,3-Butadiene (BD) is a smoke component selected by the World Health Organization (WHO) study group on Tobacco Product Regulation (TobReg) for mandated lowering. We examined the tobacco smoke-related health effects induced by BD and possible health impacts of risk reduction strategies. BD levels in mainstream smoke (MSS) from international and Canadian cigarettes and environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) were derived from scientific journals and international government reports. Dose-response analyses from toxicity studies from government reports were evaluated and the most sensitive cancer and noncancer endpoints were selected. The risks were evaluated by taking the ratio (margin of exposure, MOE) from the most sensitive toxicity endpoint and appropriate exposure estimates for BD in MSS and ETS. BD is a good choice for lowering given that MSS and ETS were at levels for cancer (leukemia) and noncancer (ovarian atrophy) risks, and the risks can be significantly lowered when lowering the BD concentrations in smoke. Several risk reduction strategies were analyzed including a maximum level of 125% of the median BD value per milligram nicotine obtained from international brands as recommended by the WHO TobReg, tobacco substitute sheets, dual and triple carbon filters, and polymer-derived carbon. The use of tobacco substitute sheet with a polymer-derived carbon filter resulted in the most significant change in risk for cancer and noncancer effects. Our results demonstrate that MOE analysis might be a practical way to assess the impact of risk reduction strategies on human health in the future.

  19. The Healthy Teen Girls project: comparison of health education and STD risk reduction intervention for incarcerated adolescent females.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Angela A; Robertson, Angela R; St Lawrence, Janet; Morse, David T; Baird-Thomas, Connie; Liew, Hui; Gresham, Kathleen

    2011-06-01

    Adolescent girls incarcerated in a state reformatory (N = 246) were recruited and assigned to an 18-session health education program or a time-equivalent HIV prevention program. Cohorts were assigned to conditions using a randomized block design separated by a washout period to reduce contamination. Post intervention, girls in the HIV risk reduction program demonstrated the acquisition of risk-reduction behavioral skills and improved condom application skill. At a follow-up assessment approximately 9 months after release from the correctional facility, girls in both conditions reported fewer unprotected sexual intercourse occasions and less sex while under the influence of alcohol or other drugs.

  20. Geology for Global Development: Mobilising and equipping young geologists to engage in disaster risk reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, Joel

    2016-04-01

    Geology for Global Development (GfGD) is a not-for-profit organisation working to mobilise and equip geologists to engage in all aspects of sustainable development, including disaster risk reduction (DRR). Geologists have a crucial role to play in DRR, and the recently agreed Sendai Framework for DRR 2015-2030. This framework aims to significantly reduce loss of lives and livelihoods due to disasters. The geology community have an understanding of the Earth, its physical structure, and the processes by which it is constantly being shaped which are of particular relevance to Priorities for Action 1 and 4 noted within the Sendai Framework. Effective engagement by geologists, however, requires many skills beyond the standard geology curriculum. Cultural understanding, cross-disciplinary communication, diplomacy, community mobilization and participation, knowledge exchange, and an understanding of social science research tools are commonly necessary for effective research and engagement in the science-policy-practice interface. Topical and disciplinary knowledge, such as understanding social vulnerability, international policy frameworks and development theory are also rarely included in the education and professional training of a young geologist. Through the work of GfGD, we are training young geologists with these skills and the supporting knowledge required to make an effective contribution to reducing disaster risk, support civil society, empower communities and help to strengthen resilience. University chapters have been established in 14 major UK and Irish universities, coordinating extra-curricular seminars, workshops and discussion activities. Our work is currently focused on supporting young geologists, but we are increasingly a respected voice at international geoscience forums that gather a wide range of students and professionals. Wider (national and international) activities include conferences, placements and facilitating youth engagement in education

  1. The management of urban surface water flood risks: SUDS performance in flood reduction from extreme events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viavattene, C; Ellis, J B

    2013-01-01

    The need to improve the urban drainage network to meet recent urban growth and the redevelopment of old industrial and commercial areas provides an opportunity for managing urban surface water infrastructure in a more sustainable way. The use of sustainable urban drainage systems (SUDS) can reduce urban surface water flooding as well as the pollution impact of urban discharges on receiving waters. However, these techniques are not yet well known by many stakeholders involved in the decision-making process, or at least the evidence of their performance effectiveness may be doubted compared with more traditional engineering solutions often promoted by existing 1D/2D drainage models. The use of geographic information systems (GIS) in facilitating the inter-related risk analysis of sewer surface water overflows and urban flooding as well as in better communication with stakeholders is demonstrated in this paper. An innovative coupled 1D/2D urban sewer/overland flow model has been developed and tested in conjunction with a SUDS selection and location tool (SUDSLOC) to enable a robust management approach to surface water flood risks and to improve the resilience of the urban drainage infrastructure. The paper demonstrates the numerical and modelling basis of the integrated 1D/2D and SUDSLOC approach and the working assumptions and flexibility of the application together with some limitations and uncertainties. The role of the SUDSLOC modelling component in quantifying flow, and surcharge reduction benefits arising from the strategic selection and location of differing SUDS controls are also demonstrated for an extreme storm event scenario.

  2. Breast Cancer-Related Arm Lymphedema: Incidence Rates, Diagnostic Techniques, Optimal Management and Risk Reduction Strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shah, Chirag; Vicini, Frank A.

    2011-01-01

    As more women survive breast cancer, long-term toxicities affecting their quality of life, such as lymphedema (LE) of the arm, gain importance. Although numerous studies have attempted to determine incidence rates, identify optimal diagnostic tests, enumerate efficacious treatment strategies and outline risk reduction guidelines for breast cancer–related lymphedema (BCRL), few groups have consistently agreed on any of these issues. As a result, standardized recommendations are still lacking. This review will summarize the latest data addressing all of these concerns in order to provide patients and health care providers with optimal, contemporary recommendations. Published incidence rates for BCRL vary substantially with a range of 2–65% based on surgical technique, axillary sampling method, radiation therapy fields treated, and the use of chemotherapy. Newer clinical assessment tools can potentially identify BCRL in patients with subclinical disease with prospective data suggesting that early diagnosis and management with noninvasive therapy can lead to excellent outcomes. Multiple therapies exist with treatments defined by the severity of BCRL present. Currently, the standard of care for BCRL in patients with significant LE is complex decongestive physiotherapy (CDP). Contemporary data also suggest that a multidisciplinary approach to the management of BCRL should begin prior to definitive treatment for breast cancer employing patient-specific surgical, radiation therapy, and chemotherapy paradigms that limit risks. Further, prospective clinical assessments before and after treatment should be employed to diagnose subclinical disease. In those patients who require aggressive locoregional management, prophylactic therapies and the use of CDP can help reduce the long-term sequelae of BCRL.

  3. Breast Cancer-Related Arm Lymphedema: Incidence Rates, Diagnostic Techniques, Optimal Management and Risk Reduction Strategies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shah, Chirag [Department of Radiation Oncology, William Beaumont Hospital, Royal Oak, MI (United States); Vicini, Frank A., E-mail: fvicini@beaumont.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, William Beaumont Hospital, Royal Oak, MI (United States)

    2011-11-15

    As more women survive breast cancer, long-term toxicities affecting their quality of life, such as lymphedema (LE) of the arm, gain importance. Although numerous studies have attempted to determine incidence rates, identify optimal diagnostic tests, enumerate efficacious treatment strategies and outline risk reduction guidelines for breast cancer-related lymphedema (BCRL), few groups have consistently agreed on any of these issues. As a result, standardized recommendations are still lacking. This review will summarize the latest data addressing all of these concerns in order to provide patients and health care providers with optimal, contemporary recommendations. Published incidence rates for BCRL vary substantially with a range of 2-65% based on surgical technique, axillary sampling method, radiation therapy fields treated, and the use of chemotherapy. Newer clinical assessment tools can potentially identify BCRL in patients with subclinical disease with prospective data suggesting that early diagnosis and management with noninvasive therapy can lead to excellent outcomes. Multiple therapies exist with treatments defined by the severity of BCRL present. Currently, the standard of care for BCRL in patients with significant LE is complex decongestive physiotherapy (CDP). Contemporary data also suggest that a multidisciplinary approach to the management of BCRL should begin prior to definitive treatment for breast cancer employing patient-specific surgical, radiation therapy, and chemotherapy paradigms that limit risks. Further, prospective clinical assessments before and after treatment should be employed to diagnose subclinical disease. In those patients who require aggressive locoregional management, prophylactic therapies and the use of CDP can help reduce the long-term sequelae of BCRL.

  4. Gait Speed among Older Participants Enrolled in an Evidence-Based Fall Risk Reduction Program: A Subgroup Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Jinmyoung; Smith, Matthew Lee; Shubert, Tiffany E; Jiang, Luohua; Ahn, SangNam; Ory, Marcia G

    2015-01-01

    Functional decline is a primary risk factor for institutionalization and mortality among older adults. Although community-based fall risk reduction programs have been widely disseminated, little is known about their impact on gait speed, a key indicator of functional performance. Changes in functional performance between baseline and post-intervention were examined by means of timed up and go (TUG), a standardized functional assessment test administered to participants enrolled in A Matter of Balance/Volunteer Lay Leader (AMOB/VLL) model, an evidence-based fall risk reduction program. This study included 71 participants enrolled in an AMOB/VLL program in the Brazos Valley and South Plain regions of Texas. Paired t-tests were employed to assess program effects on gait speed at baseline and post-intervention for all participants and by subgroups of age, sex, living status, delivery sites, and self-rated health. The Bonferroni correction was applied to adjust inflated Type I error rate associated with performing multiple t-tests, for which p-values fall risk reduction programs can improve gait speed for older adults. More translational research is needed to understand factors related to the effectiveness of fall risk reduction programs in various populations and settings.

  5. Natural hazards and risk reduction in Hawai'i: Chapter 10 in Characteristics of Hawaiian volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kauahikaua, James P.; Tilling, Robert I.; Poland, Michael P.; Takahashi, T. Jane; Landowski, Claire M.

    2014-01-01

    Significant progress has been made over the past century in understanding, characterizing, and communicating the societal risks posed by volcanic, earthquake, and tsunami hazards in Hawai‘i. The work of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO), with a century-long commitment to serving the public with credible hazards information, contributed substantially to this global progress. Thomas A. Jaggar, Jr., HVO’s founder, advocated that a scientific approach to understanding these hazards would result in strategies to mitigate their damaging effects. The resultant hazard-reduction methods range from prediction of eruptions and tsunamis, thereby providing early warnings for timely evacuation (if needed), to diversion of lava flows away from high-value infrastructure, such as hospitals. In addition to long-term volcano monitoring and multifaceted studies to better understand eruptive and seismic phenomena, HVO has continually and effectively communicated—through its publications, Web site, and public education/outreach programs—hazards information to emergency-management authorities, news media, and the public.

  6. Reduction methods of the corruption risks in the public procurement sphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belokrylova Olga, S.

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available While the dominant place in the Russian state policy against corruption belongs to the struggle against low-level corruption, virtually, high-level corruption is tending to be ignored. In these conditions it is highly important to analyze international experience for the reduction of its risks. The fact that the issue is closely connected to politics in order to satisfy the needs of public sector, is exacerbated more by the huge sums of public expenditures and simultaneously growing losses because of the corruption. Author analyzes international experience of the corruption restriction in the public procurement system beginning with the UN Convention against corruption and ending with the modern widely spread in international practice method of disqualification. The comparative analysis of international and Russian anti-corruption policies in the public procurement sphere was conducted. The author substantiated the methods of corruption revelation and the ways of resistance towards corruption which help to reduce the losses. In the final analysis complex arrangements for the corruption restriction were proposed.

  7. University-NGO connections for earthquake and tsunami risk reduction: lessons learned in West Sumatra

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCaughey, J.; Dewi, P. R.

    2013-12-01

    Scientists have information that is critical to policy and public education, yet lack field staff of their own to put this into practice. NGOs have field staff as well as connections with policymakers and the community, yet lack a direct connection to the latest scientific research. Scientists face pressure to obtain grants and publish; NGOs face pressure to deliver programs to as many people as possible. Lacking institutional incentives that recognize efforts to bridge the science-practice gap, it is often out of personal convictions that scientists seek to share their results with NGOs, and NGO practitioners seek to deepen their own scientific knowledge. Such individual efforts are impactful; however, more can be achieved with institutional commitments to closer collaboration. Science communication is dialogue, not a one-way transfer of knowledge from science to practice. On the university side, listening to our NGO partners has inspired faculty, staff, and students, identified new areas of fundamental scientific research inspired by practical use, and helped prioritize and clarify the scientific information that is most useful for disaster-risk-reduction practice. On the NGO side, connections to scientists have informed the content of public education and policy advocacy programs and clarified technical information; this new understanding has been incorporated in advocacy and community engagement programs.

  8. A CONCEPTUAL DISASTER RISK REDUCTION FRAMEWORK FOR HEALTH AND SAFETY HAZARDS IN THE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir S. GOHARDANI

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The health and safety hazard status of construction workers is constantly challenged by the projects in the built environment. In this article, various aspects of health and safety hazards for construction workers have been reviewed and investigated through a disaster risk reduction prism. This approach has further led to the perception of glancing at the construction sector as an ongoing disaster zone and equally provides a new management perspective. From this perspective, the occurrence of a disaster within the construction sector corresponds to the temporary or permanent ill-health or death of a construction worker. Geographical location is one of the factors that play an important role in addressing the health and safety hazards for construction workers. In addition to the location, geographical considerations equally encapsulate regional, cultural, governmental and work ethical effects. These effects may potentially contribute to disparities in the construction sector. With an increasing level of understanding for health and safety hazards in the construction domain, more efficient prevention measures can be taken in order to enable a disaster management cycle, capable of responding to the rigorous demands of the construction sector.

  9. Considering Vulnerability in Disaster Risk Reduction Plans: From Policy to Practice in Ladakh, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Virginie Le Masson

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available In Ladakh, India, a mountainous region prone to natural hazards, particularly floods, it is critical to adapt disaster risk reduction (DRR measures to the local environment. The floods that struck Ladakh in 2010 created momentum for local authorities and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs to engage in DRR initiatives in order to better prepare people to cope with and recover from emergencies. This paper analyzes the way DRR approaches in Ladakh, from the central government to the district level, take both vulnerability and capacity into account. National and state policies are integrated and reflect the vulnerability concept quite well. However, as the case of Ladakh shows, establishing policies does not guarantee that appropriate practices will follow. Although NGOs' relief efforts in 2010 were praised for building on local communities' context and capacities, most practitioners still view DRR through a hazard-focused lens. Likewise, the policy framework for DRR does not yet address the socioeconomic construction of disasters and is not translated into adequate interventions that build on lessons learned during the 2010 emergency. Development obstacles, such as corruption, may also compromise efforts to translate DRR policies into appropriate and sustainable practices. However, local development projects that enhance the resilience of local mountain communities exist and could be valued as effective DRR. Emphasis should be placed on the practical integration of DRR in sustainable development efforts in order to better tackle disasters.

  10. Synergies across the natural resources management fields in Southern Africa: Disaster Risk Reduction and One Health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clara Bocchino

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available For various reasons, Southern Africa may be considered the playground as well as the thinking tank for many theories and practices in the natural resources management field. History has contributed to reshape conservation practices through colonial times, and recent wars have led to the relocation of people from their homelands and the appropriation by people of previously protected areas due to socio-economic pressures. Contemporary practices stemming from sustainable development have not yielded the expected results in resolving critical socio-economic stresses that impact on environmental health. Furthermore, human health has deteriorated in remote rural areas due to the failures of governance systems and the perpetration of non-participatory models for natural resources management, especially conservation. This paper seeks to explore how two relatively new approaches, Disaster Risk Reduction and One Health, can together tap into the theoretical and practical gaps left by previous paradigms in order to instill a sustainable development approach that can benefit both people and natural resources in remote and poor rural areas.

  11. Physical exercises and risk of fall reduction in elderly: a systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diogo Homann

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Falls are associated with morbidity and mortality in older adults. The aim of this systematic review was to identify, describe and analyze the effects of physical exercise programs on the reduction of the risk of falls in adults above the age of 60. For this purpose, the Medline/Pubmed, Lilacs, and SciELO databases available at the site of the Latin American Center of Information in Health Sciences (BIREME were searched for articles comprising the period between 1999 and 2009 using the following keywords: accidental falls, elderly, exercise. A total of 385 publications were identified and 10 articles that met the criteria established in this study were selected. Strength and balance activities were the most frequent components of the exercise programs, in addition to coordination, flexibility and aerobic exercise. However, there was no clear information regarding the frequency, duration and intensity of the sessions. It was concluded that programs combining strength and balance components with other interventions, performed at least twice a week, and monitoring the participants for 3 to 6 months after intervention were the most effective in reducing and preventing falls in older adults. However, a more detailed presentation of some methodological aspects is necessary to permit the reproduction of these studies and the comparison of their results.

  12. Education for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR: Linking Theory with Practice in Ghana’s Basic Schools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Priscilla T. Apronti

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Current understanding of disaster risk reduction (DRR concurs that, when provided the right education, children have the potential to reduce their own vulnerability and the vulnerability of others in their community. What, then, comprises the right education for DRR? Research has established the need for disaster education to address the causes and effects, prevention and response, and management and recovery from disaster events. The educational process must include diverse and practical techniques that reinforce disaster knowledge and builds a culture of safety and resilience amongst students. Drawing on syllabus content analysis and field research in two rural communities in semi-arid Northern Ghana, this study explored the presence and nature of DRR within the syllabi of the basic school system. By comparing the result of the content analysis with results from interviews and questionnaires completed by teachers and students, significant gaps were identified between the disaster pedagogy outlined in the syllabi (theory and that which occurs in the classroom (practice. It was realized that while the theory outlines active and innovative techniques for teaching, learning, and evaluating DRR lessons, various challenges hinder the practical application of these techniques in the classroom. The study concludes that a lack of teacher training and professional development, and inadequate teaching and learning materials, generally account for these results. A new and consolidated effort is required from all stakeholders to train teachers and to provide the appropriate learning materials to improve on the current DRR education.

  13. Vulnerability assessments, identity and spatial scale challenges in disaster-risk reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward R. Carr

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Current approaches to vulnerability assessment for disaster-risk reduction (DRR commonly apply generalised, a priori determinants of vulnerability to particular hazards in particular places. Although they may allow for policy-level legibility at high levels of spatial scale, these approaches suffer from attribution problems that become more acute as the level of analysis is localised and the population under investigation experiences greater vulnerability. In this article, we locate the source of this problem in a spatial scale mismatch between the essentialist framings of identity behind these generalised determinants of vulnerability and the intersectional, situational character of identity in the places where DRR interventions are designed and implemented. Using the Livelihoods as Intimate Government (LIG approach to identify and understand different vulnerabilities to flooding in a community in southern Zambia, we empirically demonstrate how essentialist framings of identity produce this mismatch. Further, we illustrate a means of operationalising intersectional, situational framings of identity to achieve greater and more productive understandings of hazard vulnerability than available through the application of general determinants of vulnerability to specific places and cases.

  14. Dietary Fructose Reduction Improves Markers of Cardiovascular Disease Risk in Hispanic-American Adolescents with NAFLD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ran Jin

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD is now thought to be the most common liver disease worldwide. Cardiovascular complications are a leading cause of mortality in NAFLD. Fructose, a common nutrient in the westernized diet, has been reported to be associated with increased cardiovascular risk, but its impact on adolescents with NAFLD is not well understood. We designed a 4-week randomized, controlled, double-blinded beverage intervention study. Twenty-four overweight Hispanic-American adolescents who had hepatic fat >8% on imaging and who were regular consumers of sweet beverages were enrolled and randomized to calorie-matched study-provided fructose only or glucose only beverages. After 4 weeks, there was no significant change in hepatic fat or body weight in either group. In the glucose beverage group there was significantly improved adipose insulin sensitivity, high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP, and low-density lipoprotein (LDL oxidation. These findings demonstrate that reduction of fructose improves several important factors related to cardiovascular disease despite a lack of measurable improvement in hepatic steatosis. Reducing dietary fructose may be an effective intervention to blunt atherosclerosis progression among NAFLD patients and should be evaluated in longer term clinical trials.

  15. The potential of crowdsourcing and mobile technology to support flood disaster risk reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    See, Linda; McCallum, Ian; Liu, Wei; Mechler, Reinhard; Keating, Adriana; Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan; Mochizuki, Junko; Fritz, Steffen; Dugar, Sumit; Arestegui, Michael; Szoenyi, Michael; Laso-Bayas, Juan-Carlos; Burek, Peter; French, Adam; Moorthy, Inian

    2016-04-01

    The last decade has seen a rise in citizen science and crowdsourcing for carrying out a variety of tasks across a number of different fields, most notably the collection of data such as the identification of species (e.g. eBird and iNaturalist) and the classification of images (e.g. Galaxy Zoo and Geo-Wiki). Combining human computing with the proliferation of mobile technology has resulted in vast amounts of geo-located data that have considerable value across multiple domains including flood disaster risk reduction. Crowdsourcing technologies, in the form of online mapping, are now being utilized to great effect in post-disaster mapping and relief efforts, e.g. the activities of Humanitarian OpenStreetMap, complementing official channels of relief (e.g. Haiti, Nepal and New York). Disaster event monitoring efforts have been further complemented with the use of social media (e.g. twitter for earthquakes, flood monitoring, and fire detection). Much of the activity in this area has focused on ex-post emergency management while there is considerable potential for utilizing crowdsourcing and mobile technology for vulnerability assessment, early warning and to bolster resilience to flood events. This paper examines the use of crowdsourcing and mobile technology for measuring and monitoring flood hazards, exposure to floods, and vulnerability, drawing upon examples from the literature and ongoing projects on flooding and food security at IIASA.

  16. The efficacy of an HIV risk reduction intervention for Hispanic women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peragallo, Nilda; Gonzalez-Guarda, Rosa M; McCabe, Brian E; Cianelli, Rosina

    2012-07-01

    Culturally-specific HIV risk reduction interventions for Hispanic women are needed. SEPA (Salud/Health, Educación/Education, Promoción/Promotion, y/and Autocuidado/Self-care) is a culturally-specific and theoretically-based group intervention for Hispanic women. The SEPA intervention consists of five sessions covering STI and HIV prevention; communication, condom negotiation and condom use; and violence prevention. A randomized trial tested the efficacy of SEPA with 548 adult U.S. Hispanic women (SEPA n = 274; delayed intervention control n = 274) who completed structured interviews at baseline and 3, 6, and 12 months post-baseline. Intent-to-treat analyses indicated that SEPA decreased positive urine samples for Chlamydia; improved condom use, decreased substance abuse and IPV; improved communication with partner, improved HIV-related knowledge, improved intentions to use condoms, decreased barriers to condom use, and increased community prevention attitudes. Culturally-specific interventions have promise for preventing HIV for Hispanic women in the U.S. The effectiveness of SEPA should be tested in a translational community trial.

  17. Vulnerability assessments, identity and spatial scale challenges in disaster-risk reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward R. Carr

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Current approaches to vulnerability assessment for disaster-risk reduction (DRR commonly apply generalised, a priori determinants of vulnerability to particular hazards in particular places. Although they may allow for policy-level legibility at high levels of spatial scale, these approaches suffer from attribution problems that become more acute as the level of analysis is localised and the population under investigation experiences greater vulnerability. In this article, we locate the source of this problem in a spatial scale mismatch between the essentialist framings of identity behind these generalised determinants of vulnerability and the intersectional, situational character of identity in the places where DRR interventions are designed and implemented. Using the Livelihoods as Intimate Government (LIG approach to identify and understand different vulnerabilities to flooding in a community in southern Zambia, we empirically demonstrate how essentialist framings of identity produce this mismatch. Further, we illustrate a means of operationalising intersectional, situational framings of identity to achieve greater and more productive understandings of hazard vulnerability than available through the application of general determinants of vulnerability to specific places and cases.

  18. Can Resilience Thinking Inform Resilience Investments? Learning from Resilience Principles for Disaster Risk Reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margot Hill Clarvis

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available As the human and financial costs of natural disasters rise and state finances continue to deplete, increasing attention is being placed on the role of the private sector to support disaster and climate resilience. However, not only is there a recognised lack of private finance to fill this gap, but international institutional and financing bodies tend to prioritise specific reactive response over preparedness and general resilience building. This paper utilises the central tenets of resilience thinking that have emerged from scholarship on social-ecological system resilience as a lens through which to assess investing in disaster risk reduction (DRR for resilience. It draws on an established framework of resilience principles and examples of resilience investments to explore how resilience principles can actually inform decisions around DRR and resilience investing. It proposes some key lessons for diversifying sources of finance in order to, in turn, enhance “financial resilience”. In doing so, it suggests a series of questions to align investments with resilience building, and to better balance the achievement of the resilience principles with financial requirements such as financial diversification and replicability. It argues for a critical look to be taken at how resilience principles, which focus on longer-term systems perspectives, could complement the focus in DRR on critical and immediate stresses.

  19. Understanding Motivations for Abstinence among Adolescent Young Women: Insights into Effective Sexual Risk Reduction Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long-Middleton, Ellen R.; Burke, Pamela J.; Lawrence, Cheryl A. Cahill; Blanchard, Lauren B.; Amudala, Naomi H.; Rankin, Sally H.

    2012-01-01

    Introduction Pregnancy and sexually transmitted infections pose a significant threat to the health and wellbeing of adolescent young women. Abstinence when practiced provides the most effective means in preventing these problems, yet the perspective of abstinent young women is not well understood. The purpose of the investigation was to characterize female adolescents’ motivations for abstinence. Method As part of a larger, cross-sectional quantitative study investigating predictors of HIV risk reduction behaviors, qualitative responses from study participants who never had intercourse were analyzed in a consensus-based process using content analysis and frequency counts. An urban primary care site in a tertiary care center served as the setting, with adolescent young women ages 15–19 years included in the sample. Results Five broad topic categories emerged from the data that characterized motivations for abstinence in this sample: 1) Personal Readiness, 2) Fear, 3) Beliefs and Values, 4) Partner Worthiness and 5) Lack of Opportunity. Discussion A better understanding of the motivations for abstinence may serve to guide the development of interventions to delay intercourse. PMID:22525893

  20. Prevalence of prescription opioid use disorder among chronic opioid therapy patients after health plan opioid dose and risk reduction initiatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Von Korff, Michael; Walker, Rod L; Saunders, Kathleen; Shortreed, Susan M; Thakral, Manu; Parchman, Michael; Hansen, Ryan N; Ludman, Evette; Sherman, Karen J; Dublin, Sascha

    2017-08-01

    No studies have assessed the comparative effectiveness of guideline-recommended interventions to reduce risk of prescription opioid use disorder among chronic opioid therapy (COT) patients. We compared the prevalence of prescription opioid use disorder among COT patients from intervention clinics that had implemented opioid dose and risk reduction initiatives for more than 4 years relative to control clinics that had not. After a healthcare system in Washington State implemented interventions to reduce opioid dose and risks, we surveyed 1588 adult primary care COT patients to compare the prevalence of prescription opioid use disorder among COT patients from the intervention and control clinics. Intervention clinics managed COT patients at lower COT doses and with more consistent use of risk reduction practices. Control clinics cared for similar COT patients but prescribed higher opioid doses and used COT risk reduction practices inconsistently. Prescription opioid use disorder was assessed with the Psychiatric Research Interview for Substance and Mental Disorders. The prevalence of prescription opioid use disorder was 21.5% (95% CI=18.9% to 24.4%) among COT patients in the intervention clinics and 23.9% (95% CI=20.5% to 27.6%) among COT patients in the control clinics. The adjusted relative risk of prescription opioid use disorder was 1.08 (95% CI=0.89, 1.32) among the control clinic patients relative to the intervention clinic patients. Long-term implementation of opioid dose and risk reduction initiatives was not associated with lower rates of prescription opioid use disorder among prevalent COT patients. Extreme caution should be exercised by clinicians considering COT for patients with chronic non-cancer pain until benefits of this treatment and attendant risks are clarified. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Reductions in Transmission Risk Behaviors in HIV-Positive Clients Receiving Prevention Case Management Services: Findings from a Community Demonstration Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gasiorowicz, Mari; Llanas, Michelle R.; DiFranceisco, Wayne; Benotsch, Eric G.; Brondino, Michael J.; Catz, Sheryl L.; Hoxie, Neil J.; Reiser, William J.; Vergeront, James M.

    2005-01-01

    Prevention case management (PCM) for HIV-infected persons is an HIV risk reduction intervention designed to assist clients who are aware of their HIV infection and who continue to engage in risk transmission behaviors. PCM combines individual risk reduction counseling with case management to address the psychosocial factors affecting HIV…

  2. Application of Probabilistic Modeling to Quantify the Reduction Levels of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Attributable to Chronic Aflatoxins Exposure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wambui, Joseph M.; Karuri, Edward G.; Ojiambo, Julia A.

    2017-01-01

    the rural populations to HCC. A quantitative cancer risk assessment therefore quantified the levels at which potential pre- and postharvest interventions reduce the HCC risk attributable to consumption of contaminated maize and groundnuts. The assessment applied a probabilistic model to derive probability...... distributions of HCC cases and percentage reductions levels of the risk from secondary data. Contaminated maize and groundnuts contributed to 1,847 +/- 514 and 158 +/- 52 HCC cases per annum, respectively. The total contribution of both foods to the risk was additive as it resulted in 2,000 +/- 518 cases per......Epidemiological studies show a definite connection between areas of high aflatoxin content and a high occurrence of human hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Hepatitis B virus in individuals further increases the risk of HCC. The two risk factors are prevalent in rural Kenya and continuously predispose...

  3. Reduction in adiposity, β-cell function, insulin sensitivity, and cardiovascular risk factors: a prospective study among Japanese with obesity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maki Goto

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: A reduction in adiposity may be associated with an improvement in insulin sensitivity and β-cell function as well as cardiovascular disease (CVD risk factors; however, few studies have investigated these associations in a longitudinal setting. METHODS: To investigate these associations over a 1-year period, we conducted an observational analysis of 196 Japanese subjects with obesity in the Saku Control Obesity Program. We investigated the relations between changes in adiposity (body mass index [BMI], waist circumference, subcutaneous fat area [SFAT], and visceral fat area [VFAT] and changes in HbA1c, fasting plasma glucose (FPG, insulin sensitivity index (ISI, the homeostasis model assessment β cell function (HOMA-β, lipids, and blood pressure. RESULTS: All adiposity changes were positively associated with HbA1c and FPG changes. Reductions in BMI and VFAT were associated with HOMA-β reduction. Reductions in all adiposity measures were associated with an improvement in the ISI. Changes in most adiposity measures were positively associated with changes in blood pressure and lipid levels, except for LDL. CONCLUSION: The present findings provide additional supportive evidence indicating that a reduction in adiposity may lead to an improvement in insulin sensitivity and the reduction of CVD risk factors in obese individuals.

  4. Identification and analysis of uncertainty in disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in South and Southeast Asia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keur, van der Peter; Bers, van Caroline; Henriksen, Hans Jørgen; Nibanupudi, Hari Krishna; Yadav, Shobha; Wijaya, Rina; Subiyono, Andreas; Mukerjee, Nandan; Hausmann, Hans Jakob; Hare, Matt; Scheltinga, van Catharien Terwisscha; Pearn, Gregory; Jaspers, Fons

    2016-01-01

    This paper addresses the mainstreaming of uncertainty in Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) using as a case South and Southeast Asia, a region highly vulnerable to a wide range of natural disasters. Improvements in the implementation of DRR and CCA at the community

  5. A Competence-Based Science Learning Framework Illustrated through the Study of Natural Hazards and Disaster Risk Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oyao, Sheila G.; Holbrook, Jack; Rannikmäe, Miia; Pagunsan, Marmon M.

    2015-01-01

    This article proposes a competence-based learning framework for science teaching, applied to the study of "big ideas", in this case to the study of natural hazards and disaster risk reduction (NH&DRR). The framework focuses on new visions of competence, placing emphasis on nurturing connectedness and behavioral actions toward…

  6. Self-Esteem and Theoretical Mediators of Safer Sex among African American Female Adolescents: Implications for Sexual Risk Reduction Interventions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salazar, Laura F.; Crosby, Richard A.; DiClemente, Ralph J.; Wingood, Gina M.; Lescano, Celia M.; Brown, Larry K.; Harrington, Kathy; Davies, Susan

    2005-01-01

    Theories of health behavior posit that change is accomplished by modifying factors deemed as mediators. A set of mediators from several theoretical models used in sexual risk reduction programs was assessed among a sample of 522 African American female adolescents. The goal was to determine whether self-esteem was associated with sexually…

  7. Reduction of risk factors for nuclear power plants due to personnel psychological data, including attitude, morale and motivation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abramova, V.N.

    1997-01-01

    The possibilities of reduction of risk factors for personnel activity and performance due to attitudes, motivation and moral are presented. Methodology and experience in psychology, sociopsychology, psychophisiology and sociology mistake sources are discussed. Authorization to job, stages of estimating occupational fitness and modules system of personnel psychological and sociopsychological training probabilistic are explained. (author). 3 figs, 1 tab

  8. A Case Analysis of Disaster Risk Reduction Preparedness of Iloilo Province: Basis for A Comprehensive Intervention Program

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victoria D. Jurilla

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available - This study determined the effectiveness of Disaster Risk Reduction Preparedness of Iloilo Province, Philippines in the areas of Dissemination, Implementation, and Resource Utilization and Operation as evaluated by the 390 citizens of the ten (10 selected municipalities from the five (5 Congressional Districts in the Province of Iloilo, Philippines. This descriptive method of research employed researcher-made instruments and random interviews. Descriptive statistics used were the mean and standard deviation while inferential statistics employed Ttest for independent samples and one-way analysis for variance set at .05 level of significances. Findings revealed that Disaster Risk Reduction Preparedness of Iloilo Province, Philippines is “more effective” in terms of dissemination, implementation, and resource utilization and operation according to the assessment of the 390 respondents of the ten (10 selected municipalities from the five (5 Congressional Districts when they were grouped as to personal variables. Finally, the findings revealed that three (3 out of ten (10 municipalities were very effective and among the five (5 districts, first district was very effective as to dissemination and resource utilization and operation of their respective Disaster Risk Reduction Preparedness Program but as a whole, Iloilo Province was more effective in its Disaster Risk Reduction Preparedness.

  9. REFLECTING ON THE PRACTICE OF INFANT MENTAL HEALTH AND THE REDUCTION OF RISK IN INFANCY AND EARLY PARENTHOOD: AN ESSAY.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weatherston, Deborah J

    2017-01-01

    This essay discusses infant mental health (IMH) as well as its origins and relational framework. The author then reflects, professionally and personally, on the meaning of psychological vulnerability of boys under 5 years of age, the importance of early caregiving relationships to the reduction of risk, and implications for education and training in the IMH field. © 2016 Michigan Association for Infant Mental Health.

  10. Modifying Alcohol Consumption among High School Students: An Efficacy Trial of an Alcohol Risk Reduction Program (PRIME for Life)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallgren, Mats A.; Sjolund, Torbjorn; Kallmen, Hakan; Andreasson, Sven

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: PRIME for Life is an alcohol risk reduction program that has been used and refined in the USA for over 20 years. A Swedish version of the program has recently been adapted for use among Swedish high-school students (age 18-19). The objective of the study is to evaluate the effects of the program on youth alcohol consumption (including…

  11. Substantial potential for reductions in coronary heart disease mortality in the UK through changes in risk factor levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Critchley, J A; Capewell, S

    2003-04-01

    The UK government called for a 40% reduction in cardiovascular disease mortality in those aged under 75 by 2010. This paper examines the potential for cardiovascular risk factor changes to reduce coronary heart disease deaths in Scotland, and then extrapolates the findings to the UK population. Secondary analysis of published data using a previously validated mortality model. The model combines uptake and effectiveness of treatments with risk factor trends by sex and age group. It was used to estimate the expected reductions in coronary heart disease mortality: (a) if recent risk factor trends simply continued; (b) if additional risk factor reductions were achieved in line with Scandinavia and the United States. An "analysis of extremes" sensitivity analysis was then carried out. Scotland and UK. Projected Scottish population aged 45+ in 2010 (2.4 million) and UK population of 26.8 million. Continuation of current trends would result in 2169 fewer coronary deaths in 2010 (minimum estimate 1191 from sensitivity analyses to maximum 3870). About 4749 fewer deaths (minimum 3085, maximum 7155) could be achieved by: (a) a reduction in smoking prevalence from 30% to 18% (about 1668 fewer deaths); (b) a mean population cholesterol reduction from 6.2 to 5.2 mmol/l (about 2167 fewer deaths); (c) a 3.7 mm Hg fall in diastolic blood pressure (about 914 fewer deaths). Extrapolation from the Scottish population to the UK suggests 24 000 fewer deaths in 2010 if current trends continue, or 53 000 fewer deaths with the additional reductions. With additional interventions it would be possible to almost halve current UK coronary heart disease mortality. Even without gains from medical treatments, the UK government target of 28 000 fewer deaths in 2010 does not seem challenging.

  12. Coronary heart disease risk in patients with stroke or transient ischemic attack and no known coronary heart disease: findings from the Stroke Prevention by Aggressive Reduction in Cholesterol Levels (SPARCL) trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amarenco, Pierre; Goldstein, Larry B; Sillesen, Henrik; Benavente, Oscar; Zweifler, Richard M; Callahan, Alfred; Hennerici, Michael G; Zivin, Justin A; Welch, K Michael A

    2010-03-01

    Noncoronary forms of atherosclerosis (including transient ischemic attacks or stroke of carotid origin or >50% stenosis of the carotid artery) are associated with a 10-year vascular risk of >20% and are considered as a coronary heart disease (CHD) -risk equivalent from the standpoint of lipid management. The Stroke Prevention by Aggressive Reduction in Cholesterol Levels (SPARCL) trial included patients with stroke or transient ischemic attack and no known CHD regardless of the presence of carotid atherosclerosis. We evaluated the risk of developing clinically recognized CHD in SPARCL patients. A total of 4731 patients (mean age, 63 years) was randomized to 80 mg/day atorvastatin placebo. The rates of major coronary event, any CHD event, and any revascularization procedure were evaluated. After 4.9 years of follow-up, the risks of a major coronary event and of any CHD end point in the placebo group were 5.1% and 8.6%, respectively. The rate of outcome of stroke decreased over time, whereas the major coronary event rate was stable. Relative to those having a large vessel-related stroke at baseline, those having a transient ischemic attack, hemorrhagic stroke, small vessel stroke, or a stroke of unknown cause had similar absolute rates for a first major coronary event and for any CHD event; transient ischemic attack, small vessel, and unknown cause groups had lower absolute revascularization procedure rates. Major coronary event, any CHD event, and any revascularization procedure rates were similarly reduced in all baseline stroke subtypes in the atorvastatin arm compared with placebo with no heterogeneity between groups. CHD risk can be substantially reduced by atorvastatin therapy in patients with recent stroke or transient ischemic attack regardless of stroke subtype.

  13. Geothermal Risk Reduction via Geothermal/Solar Hybrid Power Plants. Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wendt, Daniel [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Mines, Greg [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Turchi, Craig [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Zhu, Guangdong [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-11-01

    There are numerous technical merits associated with a renewable geothermal-solar hybrid plant concept. The performance of air-cooled binary plants is lowest when ambient temperatures are high due to the decrease in air-cooled binary plant performance that occurs when the working fluid condensing temperature, and consequently the turbine exhaust pressure, increases. Electrical power demand is generally at peak levels during periods of elevated ambient temperature and it is therefore especially important to utilities to be able to provide electrical power during these periods. The time periods in which air-cooled binary geothermal power plant performance is lowest generally correspond to periods of high solar insolation. Use of solar heat to increase air-cooled geothermal power plant performance during these periods can improve the correlation between power plant output and utility load curves. While solar energy is a renewable energy source with long term performance that can be accurately characterized, on shorter time scales of hours or days it can be highly intermittent. Concentrating solar power (CSP), aka solar-thermal, plants often incorporate thermal energy storage to ensure continued operation during cloud events or after sunset. Hybridization with a geothermal power plant can eliminate the need for thermal storage due to the constant availability of geothermal heat. In addition to the elimination of the requirement for solar thermal storage, the ability of a geothermal/solar-thermal hybrid plant to share a common power block can reduce capital costs relative to separate, stand-alone geothermal and solar-thermal power plant installations. The common occurrence of long-term geothermal resource productivity decline provides additional motivation to consider the use of hybrid power plants in geothermal power production. Geothermal resource productivity decline is a source of significant risk in geothermal power generation. Many, if not all, geothermal resources

  14. Improving Fall Risk Factor Identification and Documentation of Risk Reduction Strategies by Rehabilitation Therapists through Continuing Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karnes, Michele J.

    2011-01-01

    This static group comparison study determined that an educational intervention was effective in increasing fall risk factor assessment, documentation of fall risk factors, and strategies devised to reduce fall risk factors by rehabilitation therapists for their older adult outpatients in clinics. Results showed that experimental group identified…

  15. High risk behaviors of injection drug users registered with harm reduction programme in Karachi, Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Memon Ashraf

    2007-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Surveillance data of Sindh AIDS Control Programme, Pakistan suggest that HIV infection is rapidly increasing among IDUs in Karachi and has reached 9% in 2004–5 indicating that the country has progressed from nascent to concentrated level of HIV epidemic. Findings of 2nd generation surveillance in 2004–5 also indicate 104/395 (26.3% IDUs HIV positive in the city. Methods We conducted a cross sectional study among registered IDUs of a needle exchange and harm reduction programme in Karachi, Pakistan. A total of 161 IDUs were included in the study between October–November 2003. A detailed questionnaire was implemented and blood samples were collected for HIV, hepatitis B & C and syphilis. HIV, hepatitis B and C antibody tests were performed using Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA method. Syphilis tests (RPR & TPHA were performed on Randox kit. Besides calculating frequencies univariate analysis was performed using t tests for continuous variables as age, age at first intercourse and average age of initiation of addiction and chi square for categorical variables like paid for sex or not to identify risk factors for hepatitis B and C and syphilis. Results Average age of IDU was 35.9 years and average age of initiation of drugs was 15.9 years. Number of drug injections per day was 2.3. Shooting drugs in group sharing syringes was reported by 128 (79.5% IDUs. Over half 94 (58.3% reported paying for sex and 64% reported never using a condom. Commercial selling of blood was reported by 44 (28%. 1 of 161 was HIV positive (0.6%. The prevalence of hepatitis B was 12 (7.5%, hepatitis C 151 (94.3% and syphilis 21 (13.1%. IDUs who were hepatitis C positive were more likely to start sexual activity at an earlier age and had never used condoms. Similarly IDUs who were hepatitis B positive were more likely to belong to a younger age group. Syphilis positive IDUs were more likely to have paid for sex and had never used a condom

  16. Climate Change Adaptation and Climate Related Disaster Risk Reduction Strategies in Zimbabwe and Malawi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mubaya, C. P.; Ngepah, N.; Seyama, W.

    2015-12-01

    Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) have similar aims and mutual benefits, and there is a very strong rationale for adopting a more integrated approach to these issues rather than analysing each of them as distinct from the other. One of the gaps that have been noted in this context is the lack of evidence in systematic integration of CCA and DRR in Southern Africa. In this regard, this study builds on understanding CCA and DRR policies from the perspectives of vulnerable groups- women and smallholder farmers, and conducts institutional and policy analysis of CCA and DRR in southern Africa, with specific focus on Malawi and Zimbabwe. Both quantitative and qualitative methodologies were employed to collect data for this study in the two countries. The analysis is centred on the conceptualization of DRR in the context of recovery time and CCA on livelihood changes. Findings of the study show that drought is no longer viewed as a hazard as it is a perennial and chronic occurrence in selected climate hotspots, with heightened intensity in certain identified years. Households are able to quickly recover from slow onset hazards such as droughts and dry spells more than they are able to recover from sudden onset floods, implying more capacity towards CCA than DRR. Government programmes and policies are also focused more on CCA than on DRR efforts that appear not to be a priority. Findings point towards female vulnerability from perceptions and practice where males tend to dominate where they are set to benefit from external assistance. We need to strengthen government capacity in implementation of DRR programmes, which is currently limited and development initiatives must deliberately target building the resilience of women.

  17. Extreme Events and Disaster Risk Reduction - a Future Earth KAN initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, Dorothea; Reichstein, Markus

    2017-04-01

    The topic of Extreme Events in the context of global environmental change is both a scientifically challenging and exciting topic, and of very high societal relevance. The Future Earth Cluster initiative E3S organized in 2016 a cross-community/co-design workshop on Extreme Events and Environments from Climate to Society (http://www.e3s-future-earth.eu/index.php/ConferencesEvents/ConferencesAmpEvents). Based on the results, co-design research strategies and established network of the workshop, and previous activities, E3S is thriving to establish the basis for a longer-term research effort under the umbrella of Future Earth. These led to an initiative for a Future Earth Knowledge Action Network on Extreme Events and Disaster Risk Reduction. Example initial key question in this context include: What are meaningful indices to describe and quantify impact-relevant (e.g. climate) extremes? Which system properties yield resistance and resilience to extreme conditions? What are the key interactions between global urbanization processes, extreme events, and social and infrastructure vulnerability and resilience? The long-term goal of this KAN is to contribute to enhancing the resistance, resilience, and adaptive capacity of socio-ecological systems across spatial, temporal and institutional scales, in particular in the light of hazards affected by ongoing environmental change (e.g. climate change, global urbanization and land use/land cover change). This can be achieved by enhanced understanding, prediction, improved and open data and knowledge bases for detection and early warning decision making, and by new insights on natural and societal conditions and governance for resilience and adaptive capacity.

  18. Encouraging HIV risk-reduction behaviors and testing with people experiencing homelessness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connor, Ann

    2003-03-01

    In keeping with the Cafés philosophy of reciprocal transformation, the students and guests both were effected and changed by the encounter. The guests actively participated in the intervention, discussed HIV risk-reduction behaviors, and shared their knowledge with others. Participation in the onsite HIV testing project increased, and the guests, Café staff, and the program coordinator of the agency providing HIV testing expressed gratitude for the student intervention. The students were effected as well. Although all of the students had seen people who were homeless, none had had a sustained encounter with this population. Most students entered the experience uneasy. Some were fearful or had negative stereotypical impressions. As the students spent time with the guests and shared stories, they grew more at ease, and a feeling of connection developed. The students began to know more about the guests in terms of place, family, and abilities, not just their 'homeless' label. The students commented: Having been raised in an upper middle class environment most of my life, spending time in this type of community is something that I had little experience with. [I have a] greater awareness of the [need] for serving as an advocate. Through interaction at the Café [my] stereotypes of the homeless were proven incorrect. I know I will not take my own life and my living situation for granted ever again. The intervention provided experiences [that] cannot be measured. ...relationships were formed and hearts touched. I don't want to leave. I want to come back. These comments suggest the students had their eyes opened in new ways and left with a deeper connection to and understanding of the guests and people living at the edges of society.

  19. Danish GPs' perception of disease risk and benefit of prevention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nexøe, Jørgen; Gyrd-Hansen, Dorte; Kragstrup, Jakob

    2002-01-01

    the risk is presented, e.g. whether changes in risk are presented in absolute or relative terms. METHODS: Questionnaires with clinical episodes were sent to 1500 Danish GPs. The GPs were randomized into four groups of 375, who all received the same case story with information about risk reduction achieved...

  20. Absolute metrology for space interferometers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvadé, Yves; Courteville, Alain; Dändliker, René

    2017-11-01

    The crucial issue of space-based interferometers is the laser interferometric metrology systems to monitor with very high accuracy optical path differences. Although classical high-resolution laser interferometers using a single wavelength are well developed, this type of incremental interferometer has a severe drawback: any interruption of the interferometer signal results in the loss of the zero reference, which requires a new calibration, starting at zero optical path difference. We propose in this paper an absolute metrology system based on multiplewavelength interferometry.

  1. How can health care organisations make and justify decisions about risk reduction? Lessons from a cross-industry review and a health care stakeholder consensus development process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sujan, Mark A.; Habli, Ibrahim; Kelly, Tim P.; Gühnemann, Astrid; Pozzi, Simone; Johnson, Christopher W.

    2017-01-01

    Interventions to reduce risk often have an associated cost. In UK industries decisions about risk reduction are made and justified within a shared regulatory framework that requires that risk be reduced as low as reasonably practicable. In health care no such regulatory framework exists, and the practice of making decisions about risk reduction is varied and lacks transparency. Can health care organisations learn from relevant industry experiences about making and justifying risk reduction decisions? This paper presents lessons from a qualitative study undertaken with 21 participants from five industries about how such decisions are made and justified in UK industry. Recommendations were developed based on a consensus development exercise undertaken with 20 health care stakeholders. The paper argues that there is a need in health care to develop a regulatory framework and an agreed process for managing explicitly the trade-off between risk reduction and cost. The framework should include guidance about a health care specific notion of acceptable levels of risk, guidance about standardised risk reduction interventions, it should include regulatory incentives for health care organisations to reduce risk, and it should encourage the adoption of an approach for documenting explicitly an organisation's risk position. - Highlights: • Empirical description of industry perceptions on making risk reduction decisions. • Health care consensus development identified five recommendations. • Risk concept should be better integrated into safety management. • Education and awareness about risk concept are required. • Health systems need to start a dialogue about acceptable levels of risk.

  2. Absolute pitch--electrophysiological evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnea, A; Granot, R; Pratt, H

    1994-02-01

    People who have the ability to label or to produce notes without any reference are considered to possess Absolute Pitch (AP). Others, who need a reference in order to identify the notes, possess Relative Pitch (RP). The AP ability is assumed to reflect a unique, language-like representation of non-lexical musical notes in memory. The purpose of this study was to examine this assumption by comparing Event Related Potentials (ERP) of musicians with and without AP, to lexical and non-lexical representation of musical material. Subjects were eighteen young adult musicians. Seven were AP and eleven RP. Auditory stimuli, presented through earphones, were piano notes (non-lexical) or a voice saying the note's name (lexical). Visual stimuli, presented on a computer display were note symbols (non-lexical) or letters (lexical). Subjects performed a number of tasks, combining the two modalities (visual and auditory) and stimulus types (lexical and non-lexical), and reaction times (RT), performance accuracy and evoked potentials were recorded. The tasks forced the subjects to transfer mental representations of musical material from one mode to another. Our most important findings were the differences, between groups, in the scalp distribution of P300 amplitudes. We conclude that absolute pitch possessors use the same internal language as relative pitch possessors, when possible, but the distribution of the underlying brain activity is different between AP and RP subjects.

  3. Absolute MR thermometry using nanocarriers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deckers, Roel; Sprinkhuizen, Sara M; Crielaard, Bart J; Ippel, Johannes H; Boelens, Rolf; Bakker, Chris J G; Storm, Gert; Lammers, Twan; Bartels, Lambertus W

    2014-01-01

    Accurate time-resolved temperature mapping is crucial for the safe use of hyperthermia-mediated drug delivery. We here propose a magnetic resonance imaging temperature mapping method in which drug delivery systems serve not only to improve tumor targeting, but also as an accurate and absolute nano-thermometer. This method is based on the temperature-dependent chemical shift difference between water protons and the protons in different groups of drug delivery systems. We show that the chemical shift of the protons in the ethylene oxide group in polyethylene glycol (PEG) is temperature-independent, whereas the proton resonance of water decreases with increasing temperature. The frequency difference between both resonances is linear and does not depend on pH and physiological salt conditions. In addition, we show that the proton resonance of the methyl group in N-(2-hydroxypropyl)-methacrylamide (HPMA) is temperature-independent. Therefore, PEGylated liposomes, polymeric mPEG-b-pHPMAm-Lac2 micelles and HPMA copolymers can provide a temperature-independent reference frequency for absolute magnetic resonance (MR) thermometry. Subsequently, we show that multigradient echo MR imaging with PEGylated liposomes in situ allows accurate, time-resolved temperature mapping. In conclusion, nanocarrier materials may serve as highly versatile tools for tumor-targeted drug delivery, acting not only as hyperthermia-responsive drug delivery systems, but also as accurate and precise nano-thermometers. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. Danish GPs' perception of disease risk and benefit of prevention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nexøe, Jørgen; Gyrd-Hansen, Dorte; Kragstrup, Jakob

    2002-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Uncertainty and risk are central issues in relation to health and health care services. Healthy individuals do not necessarily fall ill, despite the presence of risk factors. It has been documented that doctors, health service administrators and patients are more inclined to choose...... interventions against risk factors when information about the effects is presented in terms of relative risk reductions rather than absolute risk reductions. OBJECTIVES: The objective of the study was to gain better insight into how GPs perceive risk of disease, and how this perception is influenced by the way...... the risk is presented, e.g. whether changes in risk are presented in absolute or relative terms. METHODS: Questionnaires with clinical episodes were sent to 1500 Danish GPs. The GPs were randomized into four groups of 375, who all received the same case story with information about risk reduction achieved...

  5. Tobacco Smoke–Related Health Effects Induced by 1,3-Butadiene and Strategies for Risk Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soeteman-Hernández, Lya G.

    2013-01-01

    1,3-Butadiene (BD) is a smoke component selected by the World Health Organization (WHO) study group on Tobacco Product Regulation (TobReg) for mandated lowering. We examined the tobacco smoke–related health effects induced by BD and possible health impacts of risk reduction strategies. BD levels in mainstream smoke (MSS) from international and Canadian cigarettes and environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) were derived from scientific journals and international government reports. Dose-response analyses from toxicity studies from government reports were evaluated and the most sensitive cancer and noncancer endpoints were selected. The risks were evaluated by taking the ratio (margin of exposure, MOE) from the most sensitive toxicity endpoint and appropriate exposure estimates for BD in MSS and ETS. BD is a good choice for lowering given that MSS and ETS were at levels for cancer (leukemia) and noncancer (ovarian atrophy) risks, and the risks can be significantly lowered when lowering the BD concentrations in smoke. Several risk reduction strategies were analyzed including a maximum level of 125% of the median BD value per milligram nicotine obtained from international brands as recommended by the WHO TobReg, tobacco substitute sheets, dual and triple carbon filters, and polymer-derived carbon. The use of tobacco substitute sheet with a polymer-derived carbon filter resulted in the most significant change in risk for cancer and noncancer effects. Our results demonstrate that MOE analysis might be a practical way to assess the impact of risk reduction strategies on human health in the future. PMID:24014643

  6. Development and Refinement of a Targeted Sexual Risk Reduction Intervention for Women With a History of Childhood Sexual Abuse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senn, Theresa E; Braksmajer, Amy; Hutchins, Heidi; Carey, Michael P

    2017-11-01

    Childhood sexual abuse (CSA) is associated with sexual risk behavior in adulthood. Traditional sexual risk reduction interventions do not meet the unique needs of women who have been sexually abused. In the current paper, we describe the four-stage process we followed to develop and refine a targeted sexual risk reduction intervention for this population. First, initial quantitative work revealed that the intervention should address how maladaptive thoughts related to traumatic sexualization, trust, powerlessness, and guilt/shame (traumagenic dynamics constructs) influence current sexual behavior. Second, qualitative interviews with 10 women who reported a history of CSA ( M age = 34 years; 90% African American) as well as current sexual risk behavior provided support for targeting maladaptive thoughts associated with these traumagenic dynamics constructs. Third, based on the qualitative and quantitative results, we developed a 5-session, group-delivered intervention to address the maladaptive thoughts that occurred as a result of CSA, as well as the cognitive-behavioral determinants of sexual risk behavior. This intervention drew heavily on cognitive behavioral techniques to address cognitions associated with CSA and the links between these cognitions and current sexual risk behavior. Techniques from trauma-based therapies, as well as motivational techniques, were also incorporated into the intervention. Finally, we refined the intervention with 24 women ( M age = 33 years; 79% African American), and assessed feasibility and acceptability. These women reported high levels of satisfaction with the intervention. The resultant intervention is currently being evaluated in a small, randomized controlled trial.

  7. REDUCTION OF THE RISK IN PUBLIC PROCUREMENT BY USING DESIGN-BUILD AS A MEANS FOR SUITABLE CONSTRUCTING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jakub Blaťák

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Suitable and sustainable buildings have increased demands for design and for the transfer of design requirements to realization. That causes an increase of risk connected with the differences between planned and real parameters of the buildings. This article will outline the main theme comparison between DBB and DB projects concerning contractor’s risk management level. This comparative analysis explains, using the RIPRAN method, the hidden risks in each type of delivery method. The comparison identifies numerous contractual topics and risks included in both and gives deeper insight into risk management, both for the contracting party and also for public procurement. Applying risk analysis strategies and tools to the process will help decision-makers evaluate and select the suitable delivery method consistently and defensibly. This paper gives generic risk factors related to both project types. The results indicate risk factors with influence on the price, probability of occurrence and unfavourable impact on the project and help allocate risk level more properly in accordance with its high, middle or low probable impact. Public investment is a significant part of the public budget, the application of design-build can help with the reduction of corruption, and the public sector can benefit from the usage of DB projects to help eliminate the mistakes made by contracting authorities.

  8. Addressing excess risk of overdose among recently incarcerated people in the USA: harm reduction interventions in correctional settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brinkley-Rubinstein, Lauren; Cloud, David H; Davis, Chelsea; Zaller, Nickolas; Delany-Brumsey, Ayesha; Pope, Leah; Martino, Sarah; Bouvier, Benjamin; Rich, Josiah

    2017-03-13

    Purpose The purpose of this paper is to discuss overdose among those with criminal justice experience and recommend harm reduction strategies to lessen overdose risk among this vulnerable population. Design/methodology/approach Strategies are needed to reduce overdose deaths among those with recent incarceration. Jails and prisons are at the epicenter of the opioid epidemic but are a largely untapped setting for implementing overdose education, risk assessment, medication assisted treatment, and naloxone distribution programs. Federal, state, and local plans commonly lack corrections as an ingredient in combating overdose. Harm reduction strategies are vital for reducing the risk of overdose in the post-release community. Findings Therefore, the authors recommend that the following be implemented in correctional settings: expansion of overdose education and naloxone programs; establishment of comprehensive medication assisted treatment programs as standard of care; development of corrections-specific overdose risk assessment tools; and increased collaboration between corrections entities and community-based organizations. Originality/value In this policy brief the authors provide recommendations for implementing harm reduction approaches in criminal justice settings. Adoption of these strategies could reduce the number of overdoses among those with recent criminal justice involvement.

  9. Coupling Post-Event and Prospective Analyses for El Niño-related Risk Reduction in Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    French, Adam; Keating, Adriana; Mechler, Reinhard; Szoenyi, Michael; Cisneros, Abel; Chuquisengo, Orlando; Etienne, Emilie; Ferradas, Pedro

    2017-04-01

    Analyses in the wake of natural disasters play an important role in identifying how ex ante risk reduction and ex post hazard response activities have both succeeded and fallen short in specific contexts, thereby contributing to recommendations for improving such measures in the future. Event analyses have particular relevance in settings where disasters are likely to reoccur, and especially where recurrence intervals are short. This paper applies the Post Event Review Capability (PERC) methodology to the context of frequently reoccurring El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the country of Peru, where over the last several decades ENSO impacts have generated high levels of damage and economic loss. Rather than analyzing the impacts of a single event, this study builds upon the existing PERC methodology by combining empirical event analysis with a critical examination of risk reduction and adaptation measures implemented both prior to and following several ENSO events in the late 20th and early 21st centuries. Additionally, the paper explores linking the empirical findings regarding the uptake and outcomes of particular risk reduction and adaptation strategies to a prospective, scenario-based approach for projecting risk several decades into the future.

  10. Pre-Launch GOES-R Risk Reduction Activities for the Geostationary Lightning Mapper

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodman, S. J.; Blakeslee, R. J.; Boccippio, D. J.; Christian, H. J.; Koshak, W. J.; Petersen, W. A.

    2005-01-01

    The GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) is a new instrument planned for GOES-R that will greatly improve storm hazard nowcasting and increase warning lead time day and night. Daytime detection of lightning is a particularly significant technological advance given the fact that the solar illuminated cloud-top signal can exceed the intensity of the lightning signal by a factor of one hundred. Our approach is detailed across three broad themes which include: Data Processing Algorithm Readiness, Forecast Applications, and Radiance Data Mining. These themes address how the data will be processed and distributed, and the algorithms and models for developing, producing, and using the data products. These pre-launch risk reduction activities will accelerate the operational and research use of the GLM data once GOES-R begins on-orbit operations. The GLM will provide unprecedented capabilities for tracking thunderstorms and earlier warning of impending severe and hazardous weather threats. By providing direct information on lightning initiation, propagation, extent, and rate, the GLM will also capture the updraft dynamics and life cycle of convective storms, as well as internal ice precipitation processes. The GLM provides information directly from the heart of the thunderstorm as opposed to cloud-top only. Nowcasting applications enabled by the GLM data will expedite the warning and response time of emergency management systems, improve the dispatch of electric power utility repair crews, and improve airline routing around thunderstorms thereby improving safety and efficiency, saving fuel and reducing delays. The use of GLM data will assist the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and the Forest Service in quickly detecting lightning ground strikes that have a high probability of causing fires. Finally, GLM data will help assess the role of thunderstorms and deep convection in global climate, and will improve regional air quality and global chemistry/climate modeling

  11. ROE Fish Faunal Absolute Loss

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Reduction is based on the number of native species determined to be present as of 2015, compared with historical numbers documented prior to 1970. Data are displayed...

  12. Innovative Surveillance and Risk Reduction Systems for Family Maltreatment, Suicidality, and Substance Problems in the USAF

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Smith Slep, Amy M; Heyman, Richard E

    2006-01-01

    This project aims to enhance the capacity of the Air Force (AF) to reduce death injury and degraded force readiness via reduction of the prevalence and impact of family maltreatment suicidality and alcohol/drug problems...

  13. Innovative Surveillance and Risk Reduction Systems for Family Maltreatment, Suicidality, and Substance Problems in USAF

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Smith, Amy M; Heyman, Richard E

    2005-01-01

    This project aims to enhance the capacity of the Air Force (AF) to reduce death, injury, and degraded force readiness via reduction of the prevalence and impact of family maltreatment, suicidality, and alcohol/drug problems...

  14. Innovative Surveillance and Risk Reduction Systems for Family Maltreatment, Suicidality and Substance Problems in the USAF

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Slep, Amy

    2004-01-01

    This project aims to enhance the capacity of the Air Force (AP) to reduce death, injury, and degraded force readiness via reduction of he prevalence and impact of family - maltreatment, suicidality, and alcohol/drug problems...

  15. Livelihoods and climate change : combining disaster risk reduction, natural resource management and climate change adaptation in a new approach to the reduction of vulnerability and poverty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burton, I.; Soussan, J.; Hammill, A.

    2003-01-01

    This paper provides a framework for researchers and policy-makers that are taking action on climate change adaptation. It presents innovative and sustainable ways to respond to the changing global climate. It focuses, in particular, on international research and policy initiatives on climate change, vulnerable communities and adaptation. The international and multi-disciplinary task force that put the framework together includes experts from the fields of disaster risk reduction, climate change, conservation and poverty reduction. The report emphasizes that successful climate change adaptation should be accomplished through actions that reduce the vulnerabilities of poor people and poor countries because people's livelihoods shape poverty and their ability to move out of poverty. The task force identifies the need to integrate a climate change adaptation approach based on the livelihoods of vulnerable communities in different parts of the world. The examples cited in this report include: (1) mangrove rehabilitation in Vietnam, (2) community-based rang eland rehabilitation for carbon sequestration in Sudan, (3) agro-ecological roots of resilience in Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala, and (4) watershed restoration and development in Maharashtra State, India. refs., figs

  16. Behavioral Couples Treatment for Substance Use Disorder: Secondary Effects on the Reduction of Risk for Child Abuse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelley, Michelle L; Bravo, Adrian J; Braitman, Abby L; Lawless, Adrienne K; Lawrence, Hannah R

    2016-03-01

    Risk for child abuse was examined prior to and after behavioral couples treatment (BCT) among 61 couples in which one or both parents were diagnosed with substance use disorder (SUD). All couples were residing with one or more school-age children. Mothers and fathers completed pretreatment, post-intervention, and 6-month post-intervention follow-up assessments. Results of piecewise latent growth models tested whether the number of BCT sessions attended and number of days abstinent from drugs and alcohol influenced relationship satisfaction and its growth over time, and in turn if relationship satisfaction and change in relationship satisfaction influenced risk for child abuse. For both mothers and fathers, attending more BCT sessions lead to a direct increase in relationship satisfaction, which in turn led to stronger reductions in risk for child abuse. This effect was maintained from the post-intervention through the 6-month post-intervention follow-up. For fathers, number of days abstinent significantly influenced reduction in child abuse potential at post-intervention via relationship satisfaction. This indirect effect was not present for mothers. The overall benefits of BCT on mothers' and fathers' risk for child abuse suggest that BCT may have promise in reducing risk for child abuse among couples in which one or both parents have SUD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Science and Technology Networks : A Helping Hand to Boost Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trogrlić, RobertŠakić; Cumiskey, Lydia; Triyanti, Annisa; Duncan, Melanie J.; Eltinay, Nuha; Hogeboom, Rick J.; Jasuja, Mansi; Meechaiya, Chinaporn; Pickering, Christina J.; Murray, Virginia

    2017-01-01

    The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 underlines the importance of Science and Technology (S&T) and S&T networks for effective disaster risk reduction (DRR). The knowledge of existing S&T networks and their exact role in DRR, however, is limited. This opinion piece initiates a

  18. Population vulnerability and disaster risk reduction: A situation analysis among the landslide affected communities in Kerala, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunil Damodaran Santha

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Landslides affect at least 15% of the land area of India, exceeding 0.49 million km2. Taking the case of landslide affected communities in the state of Kerala in India, this paper demonstrates that the focus has seldom been placed on assessing and reducing vulnerability. From the perspective of political economy, this paper argues that vulnerability reduction has to be the main priority of any disaster risk reduction programme. This paper also demonstrates that the interactions between ecological and social systems are usually complex and non-linear in nature. In contrast, interventions to tackle landslide risks have followed a linear course, assuming that one hazard event acts independently of another. The key findings of the study show that lack of access to political power, decision making, and resources, insecure livelihoods,environmental degradation, and ine#ectiveness of the state approach to disaster risk reduction are some of the major factors that lead to increasing vulnerability. Qualitative in nature, the primary data were collected through in-depth interviews with people from different groups such as farmers affected by the landslides and secondary floods, men and women living in the temporary shelter, government representatives involved in relief activities, health authorities, and elected representatives.

  19. Data poverty: A global evaluation for 2009 to 2013 - implications for sustainable development and disaster risk reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leidig, Mathias; Teeuw, Richard M.; Gibson, Andrew D.

    2016-08-01

    The article presents a time series (2009-2013) analysis for a new version of the ;Digital Divide; concept that developed in the 1990s. Digital information technologies, such as the Internet, mobile phones and social media, provide vast amounts of data for decision-making and resource management. The Data Poverty Index (DPI) provides an open-source means of annually evaluating global access to data and information. The DPI can be used to monitor aspects of data and information availability at global and national levels, with potential application at local (district) levels. Access to data and information is a major factor in disaster risk reduction, increased resilience to disaster and improved adaptation to climate change. In that context, the DPI could be a useful tool for monitoring the Sustainable Development Goals of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015-2030). The effects of severe data poverty, particularly limited access to geoinformatic data, free software and online training materials, are discussed in the context of sustainable development and disaster risk reduction. Unlike many other indices, the DPI is underpinned by datasets that are consistently provided annually for almost all the countries of the world and can be downloaded without restriction or cost.

  20. Tsunami mitigation and preparedness activities in California: Chapter L in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Rick; Miller, Kevin H.

    2013-01-01

    Scenario planning and final results associated with the U.S. Geological Survey Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami project are providing great benefits to the ongoing tsunami risk-reduction efforts of the California Tsunami Preparedness and Hazard Mitigation Program. This program, led by the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services and the California Geological Survey, works with coastal communities to improve tsunami preparedness and mitigation at the local level through various efforts, such as improving tsunami hazard analysis, establishing consistent evacuation communications and planning, and leveraging national risk-reduction efforts associated with the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program. The recent 2010 Chilean and 2011 Tohoku tsunamis did not cause notable inundation of dry land in California, but dozens of harbors sustained damages totaling nearly $100 million (Wilson and others, 2012a). Estimates associated with the SAFRR distant tsunami scenario suggest socioeconomic and environmental losses could be even larger. Information gathered from these events and the SAFRR scenario is guiding the development and implementation of new strategies for emergency response, maritime planning, and land-use planning, including a reassessment of the tsunami threat along the California coast;

  1. Deconstructing anti-harm-reduction metaphors; mortality risk from falls and other traumatic injuries compared to smokeless tobacco use

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bergen Paul

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Anti-harm-reduction advocates sometimes resort to pseudo-analogies to ridicule harm reduction. Those opposed to the use of smokeless tobacco as an alternative to smoking sometimes suggest that the substitution would be like jumping from a 3 story building rather than 10 story, or like shooting yourself in the foot rather than the head. These metaphors are grossly inappropriate for several reasons, notably including the fact that they are misleading about the actual risk levels. Based on the available literature on mortality from falls, we estimate that smoking presents a mortality risk similar to a fall of about 4 stories, while mortality risk from smokeless tobacco is no worse than that from an almost certainly non-fatal fall from less than 2 stories. Other metaphors are similarly misleading. These metaphors, like other false and misleading anti-harm-reduction statements are inherently unethical attempts to prevent people from learning accurate health information. Moreover, they implicitly provide bad advice about health behavior priorities and are intended to persuade people to stick with a behavior that is more dangerous than an available alternative. Finally, the metaphors exhibit a flippant tone that seems inappropriate for a serious discussion of health science.

  2. Efficacy of Behavioral Interventions on Biological Outcomes for Cardiovascular Disease Risk Reduction among Latinos: a Review of the Literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viramontes, Omar; Swendeman, Dallas; Moreno, Gerardo

    2017-06-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death among Latinos. Designing and delivering culturally appropriate interventions are critical for modifying behavioral and nutritional behavior among Latinos and preventing CVD. This literature review provides information on evidence-based behavioral intervention strategies developed for and tested with at-risk Latinos, which reported impacts on biological outcomes. A literature search was performed in PubMed that identified 110 randomized controlled trials of behavioral interventions for CVD risk reduction with at-risk Latinos (≥1 CVD risk factor, samples >30 % Latino), four of which met the inclusion criteria of reporting biological outcomes (BP, cholesterol, low density lipoprotein (LDL), high density lipoprotein (HDL), and body mass index (BMI)). All the studies used promotoras (Hispanic/Latino community member with training that provides basic health education in the community without being a professional healthcare worker) to deliver culturally appropriate interventions that combined nutritional and physical activity classes, walking routes, and/or support groups. One study reported statistically significant reductions in systolic blood pressure and an increase in physical activity. One study reported reductions in cholesterol levels compared to the control group. Two studies did not have significant intervention effects. Most studies demonstrated no significant changes in LDL, HDL, or BMI. Methodological limitations include issues related to sample sizes, study durations, and analytic methods. Few studies met the inclusion criteria, but this review provides some evidence that culturally appropriate interventions such as using promotoras, bilingual materials/classes, and appropriate cultural diet and exercise modifications provide potentially efficacious strategies for cardiovascular risk improvement among Latinos.

  3. An interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction under conditions of uncertainty: a case study of Tristan da Cunha

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hicks, A.; Barclay, J.; Simmons, P.; Loughlin, S.

    2014-07-01

    The uncertainty brought about by intermittent volcanic activity is fairly common at volcanoes worldwide. While better knowledge of any one volcano's behavioural characteristics has the potential to reduce this uncertainty, the subsequent reduction of risk from volcanic threats is only realised if that knowledge is pertinent to stakeholders and effectively communicated to inform good decision making. Success requires integration of methods, skills and expertise across disciplinary boundaries. This research project develops and trials a novel interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction on the remote volcanic island of Tristan da Cunha (South Atlantic). For the first time, volcanological techniques, probabilistic decision support and social scientific methods were integrated in a single study. New data were produced that (1) established no spatio-temporal pattern to recent volcanic activity; (2) quantified the high degree of scientific uncertainty around future eruptive scenarios; (3) analysed the physical vulnerability of the community as a consequence of their geographical isolation and exposure to volcanic hazards; (4) evaluated social and cultural influences on vulnerability and resilience; and (5) evaluated the effectiveness of a scenario planning approach, both as a method for integrating the different strands of the research and as a way of enabling on-island decision makers to take ownership of risk identification and management, and capacity building within their community. The paper provides empirical evidence of the value of an innovative interdisciplinary framework for reducing volcanic risk. It also provides evidence for the strength that comes from integrating social and physical sciences with the development of effective, tailored engagement and communication strategies in volcanic risk reduction.

  4. Investigation of the Effect of Control Measures on Reduction of Risk Events in an Edible Oil Factory in Tehran, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malihe Kolahdouzi

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Background & Aims of the Study: Identification of hazards is one of the first goals of risk analysis. Failure mode and effect analysis method (FMEA is universally defined as efficient procedures for finding potential failures aimed to remove or decrease the risk which is related to them. This study aimed to investigate the effect of control measures on reduction of risk events in an edible oil factory in Tehran. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted in an edible oil factory in Tehran, Iran. For this, a four-member team of safety engineer experts was formed. Some factory units were selected randomly. After that, in all units, probability, severity and detection probability of hazards in all processes and tasks were assessed based on FMEA method. Regarding to the RPN, some control measures were taken to reduce the risk of events. After 9 months, risk assessment was repeated; primary and secondary RPNs were compared with each other to investigate the effect of interventions. Results: The results showed that highest and lowest probability of hazard were related to installation and can production unit, respectively. The highest and lowest severity of hazard were related to tool and can production unit, respectively. There was a significant difference between the probability of hazard in can-making and filling units, before and after the interventions. There was a significant difference between the severity of hazard in can-making, filling and neutralization units, before and after the interventions. As well, total probability, severity and RPN had a significant difference in all parts of the factory before and after the interventions. Conclusions: According to the results of this study and the overall risk reduction caused by interventional measures, it can be concluded that, FMEA is a successful method for identifying hazards and risk control measures.

  5. Analysis of the Relationship between Risk Perception and Willingness to Pay for Nuclear Power Plant Risk Reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirae Yun

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available With the adoption of new technologies, more risk is introduced into modern society. Important decisions about new technologies tend to be made by specialists, which can lead to a mismatch of risk perception between citizens and specialists, resulting in high social cost. Using contingent valuation methods, this paper analyzes the relationship between willingness to pay (WTP and the factors expressed through people’s image of nuclear power plants (NPP, their perception of NPP safety, and how these can be affected by their scientific background level. Results indicate that groups with a high scientific background level tend to have low risk perception level, represented through their image and safety levels. Further, the results show that mean WTP is dependent on scientific background and image levels. It is believed that these results could help decision makers address the mismatch of trust between the public and specialists in terms of new policy.

  6. The role of family in a dietary risk reduction intervention for cardiovascular disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diet is an essential strategy for the prevention of primary and secondary cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. The objectives were to examine: how families at increased risk of CVD perceived personal risk, their motivations to make dietary changes, their understanding of diet, and the influence of o...

  7. A Cardiovascular Risk Reduction Program for American Indians with Metabolic Syndrome: The Balance Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Elisa T.; Jobe, Jared B.; Yeh, Jeunliang; Ali, Tauqeer; Rhoades, Everett R.; Knehans, Allen W.; Willis, Diane J.; Johnson, Melanie R.; Zhang, Ying; Poolaw, Bryce; Rogers, Billy

    2012-01-01

    The Balance Study is a randomized controlled trial designed to reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in 200 American Indian (AI) participants with metabolic syndrome who reside in southwestern Oklahoma. Major risk factors targeted include weight, diet, and physical activity. Participants are assigned randomly to one of two groups, a guided or a…

  8. College Women and Breast Cancer: Knowledge, Behavior, and Beliefs regarding Risk Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burak, Lydia; Boone, Barbara

    2008-01-01

    Background: Although breast cancer prevention should begin in youth, many young women are not aware of the modifiable lifestyle risk factors for the disease. Purpose: The purposes of this study were to examine the breast cancer-related knowledge, behaviors, and beliefs of young women; to determine whether knowledge about lifestyle risks was…

  9. Developing Effective Earthquake Risk Reduction Strategies: The Potential Role of Academic Institutions in Lebanon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baytiyeh, Hoda

    2015-01-01

    Lebanon faces the risk of powerful earthquakes with potentially devastating effects. However, the Lebanese people in general have not yet recognized this risk, as current educational programs and government officials have failed to inform them about it. This article discusses the essential role that Lebanese institutions of higher education should…

  10. Weighted risk score-based multifactor dimensionality reduction to detect gene-gene interactions in nasopharyngeal carcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chao-Feng; Luo, Fu-Tian; Zeng, Yi-Xin; Jia, Wei-Hua

    2014-06-13

    Determining the complex relationships between diseases, polymorphisms in human genes and environmental factors is challenging. Multifactor dimensionality reduction (MDR) has been proven to be capable of effectively detecting the statistical patterns of epistasis, although classification accuracy is required for this approach. The imbalanced dataset can cause seriously negative effects on classification accuracy. Moreover, MDR methods cannot quantitatively assess the disease risk of genotype combinations. Hence, we introduce a novel weighted risk score-based multifactor dimensionality reduction (WRSMDR) method that uses the Bayesian posterior probability of polymorphism combinations as a new quantitative measure of disease risk. First, we compared the WRSMDR to the MDR method in simulated datasets. Our results showed that the WRSMDR method had reasonable power to identify high-order gene-gene interactions, and it was more effective than MDR at detecting four-locus models. Moreover, WRSMDR reveals more information regarding the effect of genotype combination on the disease risk, and the result was easier to determine and apply than with MDR. Finally, we applied WRSMDR to a nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) case-control study and identified a statistically significant high-order interaction among three polymorphisms: rs2860580, rs11865086 and rs2305806.

  11. Weighted Risk Score-Based Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction to Detect Gene-Gene Interactions in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chao-Feng Li

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Determining the complex relationships between diseases, polymorphisms in human genes and environmental factors is challenging. Multifactor dimensionality reduction (MDR has been proven to be capable of effectively detecting the statistical patterns of epistasis, although classification accuracy is required for this approach. The imbalanced dataset can cause seriously negative effects on classification accuracy. Moreover, MDR methods cannot quantitatively assess the disease risk of genotype combinations. Hence, we introduce a novel weighted risk score-based multifactor dimensionality reduction (WRSMDR method that uses the Bayesian posterior probability of polymorphism combinations as a new quantitative measure of disease risk. First, we compared the WRSMDR to the MDR method in simulated datasets. Our results showed that the WRSMDR method had reasonable power to identify high-order gene-gene interactions, and it was more effective than MDR at detecting four-locus models. Moreover, WRSMDR reveals more information regarding the effect of genotype combination on the disease risk, and the result was easier to determine and apply than with MDR. Finally, we applied WRSMDR to a nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC case-control study and identified a statistically significant high-order interaction among three polymorphisms: rs2860580, rs11865086 and rs2305806.

  12. Breast cancer prevention knowledge, beliefs, and information sources between non-Hispanic and Hispanic college women for risk reduction focus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kratzke, Cynthia; Amatya, Anup; Vilchis, Hugo

    2015-02-01

    Although growing research focuses on breast cancer screenings, little is known about breast cancer prevention with risk reduction awareness for ethnic differences among college-age women. This study examined breast cancer prevention knowledge, beliefs, and information sources between non-Hispanic and Hispanic college women. Using a cross-sectional study, women at a university in the Southwest completed a 51-item survey about breast cancer risk factors, beliefs, and media and interpersonal information sources. The study was guided by McGuire's Input Output Persuasion Model. Of the 546 participants, non-Hispanic college women (n = 277) and Hispanic college women (n = 269) reported similar basic knowledge levels of modifiable breast cancer risk factors for alcohol consumption (52 %), obesity (72 %), childbearing after age 35 (63 %), and menopausal hormone therapy (68 %) using bivariate analyses. Most common information sources were Internet (75 %), magazines (69 %), provider (76 %) and friends (61 %). Least common sources were radio (44 %), newspapers (34 %), and mothers (36 %). Non-Hispanic college women with breast cancer family history were more likely to receive information from providers, friends, and mothers. Hispanic college women with a breast cancer family history were more likely to receive information from their mothers. Breast cancer prevention education for college women is needed to include risk reduction for modifiable health behavior changes as a new focus. Health professionals may target college women with more information sources including the Internet or apps.

  13. TOBACCO DEPENDENCE TREATMENT WITH NICOTINE REPLACEMENT THERAPY AS ONE OF THE METHODS FOR CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE RISK REDUCTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. V. Vikhireva

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim. To investigate efficacy and safety of nicotine chewing gum and inhaler in individuals trying to quit smoking. To assess expected reduction of cardiovascular disease (CVD and total mortality relative risks (RR.Material and methods. In this open, parallel study, 169 relatively healthy male smokers aged 18-60 years were randomly assigned to free choice vs admission of Nicorette gum (2/4 mg or inhaler (10 mg. At baseline, all participants smoked ≥15 cig/d, for ≥3 years. The intervention phase lasted 3 months; follow-up evaluations were made at 3, 6 and 12 months after nicotine replacement therapy (NRT initiation.Results. Twelve-month results were obtained for 152 subjects (response rate 89.9%. Point prevalence abstinence and reduction (smoking ≤50% of basic daily cigarette amount rates were 19.7% and 35.5%, respectively. Neither abstinence, nor reduction rates depended on Nicorette form (gum vs inhaler, or on choice vs admission factor. The main predictors of long-term efficacy were nicotine dependence severity and contacts with other smokers.NRT was not associated with negative dynamics in objective health parameters (blood pressure, heart rate, ECG parameters, body weight, and body mass index or self-evaluation of health. Both Nicorette forms seemed to be safe and well-tolerated.At 12 months, the expected mean RR reduction for CVD mortality reached 19%, for total mortality – 21%.Conclusion. In Russian clinical settings, NRT efficacy and safety are similar to that demonstrated in numerous international trials. NRT can be recommended as one of the methods of assistance to quit smoking and, therefore, for CVD risk reduction.

  14. Reduction of surface subsidence risk by fly ash exploitation as filling material in deep mining areas

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Trčková, Jiřina; Šperl, Jan

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 53, č. 2 (2010), s. 251-258 ISSN 0921-030X Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30460519 Keywords : undermining * subsidence of the surface * impact reduction Subject RIV: DO - Wilderness Conservation Impact factor: 1.398, year: 2010 www.springerlink.com/content/y8257893528lp56w/

  15. High accuracy absolute distance metrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swinkels, Bas L.; Bhattacharya, Nandini; Verlaan, Ad L.; Braat, Joseph J. M.

    2017-11-01

    One of ESA's future missions is the Darwin Space Interferometer, which aims to detect planets around nearby stars using optical aperture synthesis with free-flying telescopes. Since this involves interfering white (infra-red) light over large distances, the mission is not possible without a complex metrology system that monitors various speeds, distances and angles between the satellites. One of its sub-systems should measure absolute distances with an accuracy of around 70 micrometer over distances up to 250 meter. To enable such measurements, we are investigating a technique called frequency sweeping interferometry, in which a single laser is swept over a large known frequency range. Central to our approach is the use of a very stable, high finesse Fabry-Ṕerot cavity, to which the laser is stabilized at the endpoints of the frequency sweep. We will discuss the optical set-up, the control system that controls the fast sweeping, the calibration and the data analysis. We tested the system using long fibers and achieved a repeatability of 50 micrometers at a distance of 55 meters. We conclude with some recommendations for further improvements and the adaption for use in space.

  16. Comparison of cost effectiveness of risk reduction among different energy systems: French case studies. Final report of the co-ordinated research programme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lochard, Jacques

    1989-08-01

    This report presents the three French case studies performed in the framework of the coordinated research program on 'Comparison of Cost-effectiveness of Risk Reduction among different Energy Systems': Cost effectiveness of robotics and remote tooling for occupational risk reduction at a nuclear fuel fabrication facility; Cost-effectiveness of protection actions to reduce occupational exposures in underground uranium mines; Cost-effectiveness of safety measures to reduce public risk associated with the transportation of UF 6 by truck and trains

  17. Analogs and the BHP Risk Reduction Strategy for Future Spaceflight Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitmire, Sandra; Leveton, Lauren

    2011-01-01

    In preparation for future exploration missions to distant destinations (e.g., Moon, Near Earth Objects (NEO), and Mars), the NASA Human Research Program s (HRP) Behavioral Health and Performance Element (BHP) conducts and supports research to address four human health risks: Risk of Behavioral Conditions; Risk of Psychiatric Conditions; Risk of Performance Decrements Due to Inadequate Cooperation, Coordination, Communication, and Psychosocial Adaptation within a Team; and Risk of Performance Errors due to Sleep Loss, Fatigue, Circadian Desynchronization, and Work Overload (HRP Science Management Plan, 2008). BHP Research, in collaboration with internal and external research investigators, as well as subject matter experts within NASA operations including flight surgeons, astronauts, and mission planners and others within the Mission Operations Directorate (MOD), identifies knowledge and technology gaps within each Risk. BHP Research subsequently manages and conducts research tasks to address and close the gaps, either through risk assessment and quantification, or the development of countermeasures and monitoring technologies. The resulting deliverables, in many instances, also support current Medical Operations and/or Mission Operations for the International Space Station (ISS).

  18. Reading and Writing as Risk-Reduction: The School's Role in Preventing Teenage Pregnancies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pittman, Karen J.

    1989-01-01

    Schools can reduce teenage pregnancy by providing specific sex education, counseling, and health services, and by improving schooling for high risk students. Emphasizes early childhood education and alternative programs for pregnant adolescents and adolescent parents. (FMW)

  19. Achieving continuous improvement in reductions in foodborne listeriosis: A risk-based approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gram, Lone

    2005-01-01

    is the use of a risk-based approach to identify strategies that will have the greatest impact on reducing foodborne listeriosis. A continuum of risk for listeriosis is observed in the human population, ranging from exquisitely sensitive groups, who are highly immunocompromised and at very high risk......) preventing growth of L. monocytogenes to high numbers in foods; and (3) science-based education messages targeted to susceptible populations and their caregivers. Of these strategies, the Expert Panel concluded that preventing growth of L. monocytogenes to high numbers would have the greatest impact......, and hazard analysis critical control point programs to minimize environmental L. monocytogenes contamination and to prevent cross-contamination in processing plants and at retail; (2) an intensive environmental sampling program in plants processing high-risk foods and an effective corrective action plan...

  20. Reduction of work-related musculoskeletal risk factors following ergonomics education of sewing machine operators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulduk, Sıdıka; Bulduk, Emre Özgür; Süren, Tufan

    2017-09-01

    Work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs) are a major hazard for sewing machine operators. Ergonomics education is recommended for reducing musculoskeletal disorders at workstations. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of an ergonomics education in reducing the exposure to risk factors for WMSDs among sewing machine operators. In this study of 278 workers, their exposure to the risk of WMSDs was assessed using the quick exposure check scale prior to them attending an ergonomics education programme and then again 3 months after the programme. The scores for risk exposure before the education programme were moderate for back (static) and back (dynamic), high for shoulder/arm and very high for wrist/hand and neck. The results obtained 3 months later were low for back (static) and shoulder/arm, and moderate for back (dynamic), wrist/hand and neck. Based on our results, ergonomics education can reduce the exposure to risk factors for WMSDs in the workplace.

  1. Eliciting affect via immersive virtual reality: a tool for adolescent risk reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hadley, Wendy; Houck, Christopher D; Barker, David H; Garcia, Abbe Marrs; Spitalnick, Josh S; Curtis, Virginia; Roye, Scott; Brown, Larry K

    2014-04-01

    A virtual reality environment (VRE) was designed to expose participants to substance use and sexual risk-taking cues to examine the utility of VR in eliciting adolescent physiological arousal. 42 adolescents (55% male) with a mean age of 14.54 years (SD = 1.13) participated. Physiological arousal was examined through heart rate (HR), respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA), and self-reported somatic arousal. A within-subject design (neutral VRE, VR party, and neutral VRE) was utilized to examine changes in arousal. The VR party demonstrated an increase in physiological arousal relative to a neutral VRE. Examination of individual segments of the party (e.g., orientation, substance use, and sexual risk) demonstrated that HR was significantly elevated across all segments, whereas only the orientation and sexual risk segments demonstrated significant impact on RSA. This study provides preliminary evidence that VREs can be used to generate physiological arousal in response to substance use and sexual risk cues.

  2. Evaluation of a Web-based malaria risk reduction game for study abroad students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartjes, Laurie B; Baumann, Linda C

    2012-01-01

    Compare feedback strategies in 3 versions of an educational game. Study abroad students (N = 482) participated by playing the game and completing pregame/postgame surveys January-March 2010. This study employed an experimental design. Primary outcome measures were knowledge gain, player satisfaction, and risk perception. One-third had previously traveled to a malaria-risk region, and two thirds planned to do so. Baseline malaria knowledge was low. Postgame knowledge and risk perception were significantly higher than pregame, irrespective of past travel status. The group that automatically received explanatory feedback following game decisions scored higher for mean knowledge gain, without differences in player satisfaction. The challenges of designing a feedback strategy to support Web-based learning make these results highly relevant to health educators developing interactive multimedia interventions. The increasing number of students traveling to higher-risk destinations demands attention. Both malaria-naive and malaria-experienced students would benefit from this approach to travel health education.

  3. The burden of disease preventable by risk factor reduction in Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Šipetić Sandra

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aim. Reliable and comparable analysis of health risks is an important component of evidence-based and preventive programs. The aim of this study was to analyze the impact of the most relevant avoidable risk factors on the burden of the selected conditions in Serbia. Methods. Attributable fractions were calculated from the survey information on the prevalence of a risk factor and the relative risk of dying if exposed to a risk factor. The population-attributable risks were applied to deaths, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLL, years of life with disability (YLD and disability adjusted life years (DALY. Results. More than 40% of all deaths and of the total YLL are attributable to cigarette smoking, overweight, physical inactivity, inadequate intake of fruit and vegetables, hypertension and high blood cholesterol. Alcohol consumption has in total a beneficial effect. According to the percent of DALY for the selected conditions attributable to the observed risk factors, their most harmful effects are as follows: alcohol consumption on road traffic accidents; cigarette smoking on lung cancer; physical inactivity on cerebrovascular disease (CVD, ischemic heart disease (IHD and colorectal cancer; overweight on type 2 diabetes; hypertension on renal failure and CVD; inadequate intake of fruit and vegetables on IHD and CVD, and high blood cholesterol on IHD. Conclusions. This study shows that a high percentage of disease and injury burden in Serbia is attributable to avoidable risk factors, which emphasizes the need for improvement of relevant preventive strategies and programs at both individual and population levels. Social preferences should be determined for a comprehensive set of conditions and cost effectiveness analyses of potential interventions should be carried out. Furthermore, positive measures, derived from health, disability and quality of life surveys, should be included. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike

  4. Impact of financial incentives on behavior change program participation and risk reduction in worksite health promotion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gingerich, Stefan B; Anderson, David R; Koland, Heidi

    2012-01-01

    To examine the impact of financial incentives on behavior change program registration, completion, and risk improvement rates. Retrospective cohort study conducted to observe the relationship between financial incentives and behavior change program registration, completion, and risk improvement rates. Large public- or private-sector employers. Twenty-four organizations (n = 511,060 eligible employees) that offered comprehensive worksite health promotion (WHP) programs. Financial incentives offered for completion of a behavior change program as part of a WHP program. Behavior change program registration and completion data were obtained from standard reports. Company-level risk change was calculated from the average per-person number of risks on baseline and follow-up health risk assessments. Incentive design was determined from questionnaires completed by WHP program managers. Average registration rates, program completion rates, and risk improvement rates were compared using t-tests for companies that did versus did not offer incentives. Comparisons were also made between companies with incentives of less than $100 and those with incentives of $100 or more. Correlations between incentive value and outcome variables were assessed using Pearson correlations. Companies that offered incentives had significantly higher health coaching completion rates than companies not offering an incentive (82.9% vs. 76.4%, respectively, p = .017) but there was no significant association with registration (p = .384) or risk improvement rates (p = .242). Incentive values were not significantly associated with risk improvement rates (p = .240). Offering incentives for completing behavior change programs may increase completion rates, but increased health improvement does not necessarily follow.

  5. Justice policy reform for high-risk juveniles: using science to achieve large-scale crime reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skeem, Jennifer L; Scott, Elizabeth; Mulvey, Edward P

    2014-01-01

    After a distinctly punitive era, a period of remarkable reform in juvenile crime regulation has begun. Practical urgency has fueled interest in both crime reduction and research on the prediction and malleability of criminal behavior. In this rapidly changing context, high-risk juveniles--the small proportion of the population where crime becomes concentrated--present a conundrum. Research indicates that these are precisely the individuals to treat intensively to maximize crime reduction, but there are both real and imagined barriers to doing so. Mitigation principles (during early adolescence, ages 10-13) and institutional placement or criminal court processing (during mid-late adolescence, ages 14-18) can prevent these juveniles from receiving interventions that would best protect public safety. In this review, we synthesize relevant research to help resolve this challenge in a manner that is consistent with the law's core principles. In our view, early adolescence offers unique opportunities for risk reduction that could (with modifications) be realized in the juvenile justice system in cooperation with other social institutions.

  6. Gastric Bypass Surgery Produces a Durable Reduction in Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors and Reduces the Long-Term Risks of Congestive Heart Failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benotti, Peter N; Wood, G Craig; Carey, David J; Mehra, Vishal C; Mirshahi, Tooraj; Lent, Michelle R; Petrick, Anthony T; Still, Christopher; Gerhard, Glenn S; Hirsch, Annemarie G

    2017-05-23

    Obesity and its association with reduced life expectancy are well established, with cardiovascular disease as one of the major causes of fatality. Metabolic surgery is a powerful intervention for severe obesity, resulting in improvement in comorbid diseases and in cardiovascular risk factors. This study investigates the relationship between metabolic surgery and long-term cardiovascular events. A cohort of Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery (RYGB) patients was tightly matched by age, body mass index, sex, Framingham Risk Score, smoking history, use of antihypertension medication, diabetes mellitus status, and calendar year with a concurrent cohort of nonoperated control patients. The primary study end points of major cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, stroke, and congestive heart failure) were evaluated using Cox regression. Secondary end points of longitudinal cardiovascular risk factors were evaluated using repeated-measures regression. The RYGB and matched controls (N=1724 in each cohort) were followed for up to 12 years after surgery (overall median of 6.3 years). Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed a statistically significant reduction in incident major composite cardiovascular events ( P =0.017) and congestive heart failure (0.0077) for the RYGB cohort. Adjusted Cox regression models confirmed the reductions in severe composite cardiovascular events in the RYGB cohort (hazard ratio=0.58, 95% CI=0.42-0.82). Improvements of cardiovascular risk factors (eg, 10-year cardiovascular risk score, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein, systolic blood pressure, and diabetes mellitus) were observed within the RYGB cohort after surgery. Gastric bypass is associated with a reduced risk of major cardiovascular events and the development of congestive heart failure. © 2017 The Authors and Geisinger Clinic. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

  7. Norms and practices within marriage which shape gender roles, HIV/AIDS risk and risk reduction strategies in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bandali, S

    2011-09-01

    Despite increasing HIV/AIDS rates among married individuals, minimal research has been conducted on how men and women respond to risk in a marriage. This paper examines strategies used by married individuals to combat HIV/AIDS risk against prevailing gender norms. Qualitative data were gathered in four villages of Cabo Delgado province, Mozambique. Group discussions were held with 160 men and women to explore gender norms, HIV/AIDS knowledge and risk determinants. From the group discussions, 29 individuals were selected for further in-depth interviews to explore relationships between gender norms and risk reduction efforts within marriages. Findings illustrate how infidelity and social limitations placed on condom use not only increase HIV/AIDS risk but also entrench gender disparities. Although power differences between genders can make it difficult to negotiate safe sex, men and women are taking measures to reduce perceived HIV/AIDS risk in their marriage. Married men are reconstructing norms and taking responsibility to protect their family from HIV/AIDS by remaining faithful. For women, responses to HIV/AIDS risk in a marriage are more closely related to their ability to generate an income. Financially dependent women tend to leave a risky marriage altogether in contrast to financially autonomous women who will negotiate condom use with their husband. Factors such as experience with a risky partner, the desire to maintain a good social standing, fear of HIV/AIDS acquisition and parental guidance and support influence men and women to reduce perceived HIV/AIDS risk, despite constraining gender norms and power imbalances in a marriage. Nuanced understandings of the ways in which men and women are already taking measures to decrease noted HIV/AIDS risk, despite gender norms that make this a challenge, should be incorporated into localised responses.

  8. Risk analysis local grids. Mapping and reduction of risks in electric power grids; Riskanalysmetod lokalnaet. Kartlaeggning och reduktion av risker i elnaet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kylefors, Martin; Fredholm, Lotta; Sandstroem, Cecilia

    2007-11-15

    The objective of the project has been to contribute to development of risk analysis applications that correspond to the need of investments as an effect of new regulation. The aim has been to develop a method for screening and assessing risks, and for ranking risk reducing measures in order of priority. Phase 1 has consisted of an overview of methods, selection of appropriate methods, and development of principles regarding application suitable for power distribution companies. Phase 2 has consisted of adjustments and tests of the method. The method focuses on risks associated with power failures, with a duration exceeding 12 hours, in medium voltage local networks. Stations are excluded. The suggested method is based on principles of Preliminary Hazard Analysis and Cost-Benefit Analysis. Risks are suggested to be assessed based on three main factors (load, exposure and alternative supply). The quota between the highest and lowest value is 20 for each factor. Each factor is assessed by underlying factors such as type of cable/wire, number of customers and average power consumption. By multiplying the factors a resulting risk level is obtained in the range of 0.05 to 400. The level determines the need for further investments. Appropriate risk reducing measure is selected by putting the risk reduction (benefit) in relation to the total costs for investment and maintenance, for each alternative measure. There is a further need for development of a method for stations. There is also a further need for development of a priority model in city networks where power failures less than 12 hours are taken into account. Finally there is a need to turn the functional requirement (no power failures exceeding 24 hours) into an acceptable risk level

  9. Fall risk and incidence reduction in high risk individuals with multiple sclerosis: a pilot randomized control trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sosnoff, Jacob J; Moon, Yaejin; Wajda, Douglas A; Finlayson, Marcia L; McAuley, Edward; Peterson, Elizabeth W; Morrison, Steve; Motl, Robert W

    2015-10-01

    To determine the feasibility of three fall prevention programs delivered over 12 weeks among individuals with multiple sclerosis: (A) a home-based exercise program targeting physiological risk factors; (B) an educational program targeting behavioral risk factors; and (C) a combined exercise-and-education program targeting both factors. Randomized controlled trial. Home-based training with assessments at research laboratory. A total of 103 individuals inquired about the investigation. After screening, 37 individuals with multiple sclerosis who had fallen in the last year and ranged in age from 45-75 years volunteered for the investigation. A total of 34 participants completed postassessment following the 12-week intervention. Participants were randomly assigned into one of four conditions: (1) wait-list control (n = 9); (2) home-based exercise (n = 11); (3) education (n = 9); or (4) a combined exercise and education (n = 8) group. Before and after the 12-week interventions, participants underwent a fall risk assessment as determined by the physiological profile assessment and provided information on their fall prevention behaviors as indexed by the Falls Prevention Strategy Survey. Participants completed falls diaries during the three-months postintervention. A total of 34 participants completed postintervention testing. Procedures and processes were found to be feasible. Overall, fall risk scores were lower in the exercise groups (1.15 SD 1.31) compared with the non-exercise groups (2.04 SD 1.04) following the intervention (p fall prevention behaviors (p > 0.05). Further examination of home-based exercise/education programs for reducing falls in individuals with multiple sclerosis is warranted. A total of 108 participants would be needed in a larger randomized controlled trial.ClinicalTrials.org #NCT01956227. © The Author(s) 2014.

  10. Springtime Flood Risk Reduction in Rural Arctic: A Comparative Study of Interior Alaska, United States and Central Yakutia, Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yekaterina Y. Kontar

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Every spring, riverine communities throughout the Arctic face flood risk. As the river ice begins to thaw and break up, ice jams—accumulation of chunks and sheets of ice in the river channel, force melt water and ice floes to back up for dozens of kilometers and flood vulnerable communities upstream. Via a comparative analysis between two flood-prone communities in Alaska and Yakutia (Siberia, this study examines key components of flood risk—hazards, exposure, and vulnerability, and existing practices in flood risk reduction in rural Arctic. The research sites are two rural communities—Galena (Yukon River and Edeytsy (Lena River, which sustained major ice-jam floods in May 2013. The data was acquired through a combination of direct observations on site, review of documents and archives, focus group discussions, and surveys. Five focus groups with US and Russian representatives from disaster management agencies revealed a few similar patterns as well as significant differences in flood risk reduction strategies. The main differences included higher reliance on mechanical and short-term ice jam and flood mitigation efforts (e.g., ice-jam demolition in the Russian Arctic, and lack of a centralized flood management model in the US. Surveys conducted among population at risk during the site visits to Edeytsy (November 2015 and Galena (March 2016 revealed higher satisfaction levels with the existing flood risk reduction efforts among Edeytsy residents. Survey respondents in Galena indicated the lack of ice jam removal and other flood prevention measures as the key drawback in the existing flood management. Historical analysis, conducted via the disaster Pressure and Release (PAR model, revealed that springtime flood risk in both regions results from complex interactions among a series of natural processes that generate conditions of hazard, and human actions that generate conditions of communities’ exposure and vulnerability. The analysis

  11. Outreach-based drug treatment for sex trading women: the Cal-Pep risk-reduction demonstration project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowser, Benjamin P; Ryan, Lisa; Smith, Carla Dillard; Lockett, Gloria

    2008-12-01

    California Prevention Education Program (Cal-Pep) provides street outreach services to injection drugs users and sex traders in Oakland and San Francisco, CA, to reduce their chances of contracting HIV/AIDS. Drug treatment is an effective barrier to HIV infections, but only clients who are ready for total abstinence from drug use can be referred to traditional treatment. Drug treatment readiness is currently defined by funding policies in the U.S. as a client's willingness to totally abstain from alcohol and illegal drug use. This policy and practice eliminates a major harm reduction opportunity to reach drug users who are just contemplating recovery with treatment. With a CSAT grant to demonstrate an effective innovation in treatment, Cal-Pep started a harm reduction outpatient program for women who were active drug users. Over the course of 1 year, actively drug-using clients came to the program house during the day for meals, for risk-reduction education sessions, group discussions, and one-on-one psychological counselling. From April 2001 to March 2006, 37 clients per year were interviewed at program entry and after 6 and 12 months to see if the intervention activities had an impact on their drug use and readiness for abstinence drug treatment. By the 6th and 12th month of clients' progression through the risk-reduction program, they reported a statistically significant reduction in their poly-drug use (cocaine, cannabis, heroin, PCP) in the 30 days prior to their interviews (p<.000). There were also significant reductions in poly-drug use with alcohol (p<.000) and use of crack cocaine alone (p<.003). There was also an added benefit: clients significantly improved their living circumstances from the streets and shelters to rooms and apartments while in the program (p<.034). There was no significant improvement in employment. This intervention shows that a harm reduction intermediate treatment program for actively using drug users can significantly reduce their

  12. HIV risk inside U.S. prisons: a systematic review of risk reduction interventions conducted in U.S. prisons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valera, Pamela; Chang, Yvonne; Lian, Zi

    2017-08-01

    HIV prevalence in correctional populations is approximately five times that of the general adult population. This systematic review examines the broad question of HIV prevention and interventions to reduce inmate HIV-related risk behaviors in U.S. federal and state prisons. We conducted a systematic review of multiple databases and Google Scholar to identify behavioral, biomedical, social, and policy studies related to HIV among U.S. prison populations from 1980-2014. Studies were excluded if they did not focus on HIV, prison inmates, if they were conducted outside of the U.S., if they involved juvenile offenders, or if they included post-release outcomes. Twenty-seven articles met the study criteria. Evidence suggests that research related to the HIV care continuum, risk behaviors, gender, prevention (e.g., peer education), and policy are key topics to enhance HIV prevention interventions in the criminal justice system. This review provides a prison-specific overview of HIV in U.S. correctional populations and highlight effective interventions, including inmate peer education. There is an urgent need to continue to implement HIV prevention interventions across all prisons and improve the quality of life among those at heightened risk of HIV infection.

  13. Water volume reduction increases eutrophication risk in tropical semi-arid reservoirs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Alberto Nascimento da Rocha Junior

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Aim Global patterns of temperature and precipitation have significantly changed over the last century and nearly all predictions point to even greater changes by the end of 2100. Long periods of drought in semi-arid regions generally reduce reservoirs and lakes water level, increasing the nutrients concentrations in the water. Our principal hypothesis is that water volume reduction, driven by prolonged droughts, will increase reservoirs susceptibility to eutrophication and accordingly an increase in trophic state. To test this hypothesis, we used a comparative analysis of ecosystems in a space-for-time substitution approach, in a Brazilian semi-arid region, to predict the consequences of reservoirs water volume reduction on key limnological variables. Methods We sampled 16 reservoirs located in two sub-basins with contrasting rainfall regimes, inserted on Piranhas-Açu watershed. The Seridó River basin (SB is dry and the Piancó River basin (SB is humid, with annual mean precipitation of 500 and 700 mm, respectively. Linear regressions analyzes were performed to assess whether the percentage of maximum volume stored (%MVS is a good predictor for total phosphorus (TP, total nitrogen (TN and chlorophyll-a (CHLA. In addition, a two factorial analysis of variance (two-way ANOVA was performed to test for period (dry, very dry and extremely dry, basin (SB and PB and their interactions effects on TP, TN, CHLA, conductivity, turbidity, and Secchi depth. Results The results showed a reduction in the reservoirs %MVS both for PB and SB regions. At the extremely dry period, all reservoirs were classified as eutrophic, but TP concentrations reached much higher values in SB than in PB. The linear regressions analyses showed that the TP and TN were negatively related to %MVS during all periods sampled. The two-way ANOVA showed that there were significant basin and period effects on TP, TN, Secchi depth and turbidity, whereas for CHLA and conductivity

  14. A study on the effect of flaw detection probability assumptions on risk reduction achieved by non-destructive inspection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cronvall, O.; Simola, K.; Männistö, I.; Gunnars, J.; Alverlind, L.; Dillström, P.; Gandossi, L.

    2012-01-01

    Leakages and ruptures of piping components lead to reduction or loss of the pressure retaining capability of the system, and thus contribute to the overall risk associated with nuclear power plants. In-service inspection (ISI) aims at verifying that defects are not present in components of the pressure boundary or, if defects are present, ensuring that these are detected before they affect the safe operation of the plant. Reliability estimates of piping are needed e.g., in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) studies, risk-informed ISI (RI-ISI) applications, and other structural reliability assessments. Probabilistic fracture mechanics models can account for ISI reliability, but a quantitative estimate for the latter is needed. This is normally expressed in terms of probability of detection (POD) curves, which correlate the probability of detecting a flaw with flaw size. A detailed POD curve is often difficult (or practically impossible) to obtain. If sufficient risk reduction can be shown by using simplified (but reasonably conservative) POD estimates, more complex PODs are not needed. This paper summarises the results of a study on the effect of piping inspection reliability assumptions on failure probability using structural reliability models. The main interest was to investigate whether it is justifiable to use a simplified POD curve. Further, the study compared various structural reliability calculation approaches for a set of analysis cases. The results indicate that the use of a simplified POD could be justifiable in RI-ISI applications.

  15. Review Article: "Adaptive governance and resilience: the role of multi-stakeholder platforms in disaster risk reduction"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Djalante

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Disaster impacts are more frequent, deadly and costly. The social and environmental consequences are increasingly complex and intertwined. Systematic as well as innovated strategies are needed to manage the impacts. Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR is a systematic approach to manage disaster risks while adaptive governance (AG is suggested as an alternative approach for governing complex problems such as disasters. The author proposes that the AG can be practicalised through a mechanism of multi-stakeholder platforms (MSPs, interpreted as multiplicity of organisations at different scales of governance working towards more coordinated and integrated actions in DRR. Ten MSPs are selected at the global, regional, national and local level, focussing on the Indonesian MSPs. The literature reviews and in-depth interviews with key respondents in Indonesia show that the international and regional MSPs tend to have more human, technical and financial capacity than national and local MSPs. The author finds that most MSP roles focus on the coordination amongst multitudes of organisations. Only those MSPs that are able to generate new funding have the capacity to implement direct risk reduction activities. The development of the MSP is highly influenced by the UNISDR system operating at different levels. Particularly in Indonesia, MSP are also influenced by the operations of various UN and international organisations. Finally, the paper suggests the need for more provision of technical supports to local MSPs, more linkages with established networks in DRR and broader stakeholders involvement within the MSPs.

  16. Risk reduction as an accepted framework for safer-sex promotion among women who have sex with women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Peta; McNair, Ruth

    2009-03-01

    Safer-sex information for women who have sex with women (WSW) is often very difficult to locate. Girl2girl.info is one of the only websites focussed on safer sex for WSW. The present article describes the predevelopment consultation and evaluation of girl2girl.info. A risk-reduction framework was used to develop the website. Girl2girl.info was developed in 2004 using questionnaires and focus groups with 36 consumers who were WSW, largely based in Canberra, Australia. In 2006-2007 the site was evaluated using mixed methods of questionnaires with 74 WSW and interviews with 17 health professionals around Australia. This research has identified some key attitudes toward safer sex of WSW participants, in particular a misperception that the majority of WSW are at low risk for sexually transmissible infections and a consistent aversion to using latex for safer sex. The article concludes that the promotion of a risk-reduction approach - including non-latex-based safer-sex practices - for WSW is both a theoretically appropriate and engaging form of health promotion for WSW.

  17. An interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction under conditions of uncertainty: a case study of Tristan da Cunha

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hicks, A.; Barclay, J.; Simmons, P.; Loughlin, S.

    2013-12-01

    This research project adopted an interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction on the remote volcanic island of Tristan da Cunha (South Atlantic). New data were produced that: (1) established no spatio-temporal pattern to recent volcanic activity; (2) quantified the high degree of scientific uncertainty around future eruptive scenarios; (3) analysed the physical vulnerability of the community as a consequence of their geographical isolation and exposure to volcanic hazards; (4) evaluated social and cultural influences on vulnerability and resilience. Despite their isolation and prolonged periods of hardship, islanders have demonstrated an ability to cope with and recover from adverse events. This resilience is likely a function of remoteness, strong kinship ties, bonding social capital, and persistence of shared values and principles established at community inception. While there is good knowledge of the styles of volcanic activity on Tristan, given the high degree of scientific uncertainty about the timing, size and location of future volcanism, a qualitative scenario planning approach was used as a vehicle to convey this information to the islanders. This deliberative, anticipatory method allowed on-island decision makers to take ownership of risk identification, management and capacity building within their community. This paper demonstrates the value of integrating social and physical sciences with development of effective, tailored communication strategies in volcanic risk reduction.

  18. Prevalence of malaria and use of malaria risk reduction measures among resettled pregnant women in South Sudan

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dræbel, Tania; Gueth Kueil, Bill; Meyrowitsch, Dan Wolf

    2013-01-01

    reduction measures and their associations with selected background characteristics. Two hundred and twenty women were tested for malaria parasitaemia and questioned about their malaria prevention and treatment practices. Results: The results showed a prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum parasitaemia of 9.......1%. No statistically significant associations were observed between selected background characteristics and malaria infection status. However, school attendance was significantly associated with insecticide-treated net ownership (OR¼ 6.52, 95% CI 2.37–17.94; p ¼ 0.001) and access to malaria diagnosis and treatment (OR...... selected background characteristics. Educational attainment, information and communication about malaria prevention and control play a pivotal role in increasing and improving use of malaria risk reduction measures....

  19. Feasibility and acceptability of a bar-based sexual risk reduction intervention for bar patrons in Tshwane, South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morojele, Neo K; Kitleli, Naledi; Ngako, Kgalabi; Kekwaletswe, Connie T; Nkosi, Sebenzile; Fritz, Katherine; Parry, Charles D H

    2014-01-01

    Alcohol consumption is a recognised risk factor for HIV infection. Alcohol serving establishments have been identified as appropriate venues in which to deliver HIV prevention interventions. This paper describes experiences and lessons learnt from implementing a combined HIV prevention intervention in bar settings in one city- and one township-based bar in Tshwane, South Africa. The intervention consisted of peer-led and brief intervention counselling sub-components. Thirty-nine bar patrons were recruited and trained, and delivered HIV and alcohol risk reduction activities to their peers as peer interventionists. At the same time, nine counsellors received training and visited the bars weekly to provide brief motivational interviewing counselling, advice, and referrals to the patrons of the bars. A responsible server sub-component that had also been planned was not delivered as it was not feasible to train the staff in the two participating bars. Over the eight-month period the counsellors were approached by and provided advice and counselling for alcohol and sexual risk-related problems to 111 bar patrons. The peer interventionists reported 1323 risk reduction interactions with their fellow bar patrons during the same period. The intervention was overall well received and suggests that bar patrons and servers can accept a myriad of intervention activities to reduce sexual risk behaviour within their drinking settings. However, HIV- and AIDS-related stigma hindered participation in certain intervention activities in some instances. The buy-in that we received from the relevant stakeholders (i.e. bar owners/managers and patrons, and the community at large) was an important contributor to the feasibility and acceptability of the intervention.

  20. Similar reductions in the risk of human colon cancer by selective and nonselective cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2 inhibitors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alshafie Galal A

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Epidemiologic and laboratory investigations suggest that aspirin and other nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs have chemopreventive effects against colon cancer perhaps due at least in part to their activity against cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2, the rate-limiting enzyme of the prostaglandin cascade. Methods We conducted a case control study of colon cancer designed to compare effects of selective and non-selective COX-2 inhibitors. A total of 326 incident colon cancer patients were ascertained from the James Cancer Hospital, Columbus, Ohio, during 2003–2004 and compared with 652 controls with no history of cancer and matched to the cases at a 2:1 ratio on age, race, and county of residence. Data on the past and current use of prescription and over the counter medications and colon cancer risk factors were ascertained using a standardized risk factor questionnaire. Effects of COX-2 inhibiting agents were quantified by calculating odds ratios (OR and 95% confidence intervals. Results Results showed significant risk reductions for selective COX-2 inhibitors (OR = 0.31, 95% CI = 0.16–0.57, regular aspirin (OR = 0.33, 95% CI = 0.20–0.56, and ibuprofen or naproxen (0.28, 95% CI = 0.15–0.54. Acetaminophen, a compound with negligible COX-2 activity and low dose aspirin (81 mg produced no significant change in the risk of colon cancer. Conclusion These results suggest that both non-selective and selective COX-2 inhibitors produce significant reductions in the risk of colon cancer, underscoring their strong potential for colon cancer chemoprevention.

  1. Chain of custody as an organizing framework in seafood risk reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yasuda, Tomohide; Bowen, Robert E

    2006-01-01

    Changes in the terms and direction of international trade in seafood, an increased understanding of and concern for the public health risk imposed by seafood products, and advances in information management technology combine to open opportunities to manage more effectively seafood-borne risk. Present regulatory mandates and programs lack sufficient integration for effective risk mitigation and do not adequately reflect the trans-national nature of seafood trade or the increased complexity of seafood production. This paper argues that the concept of a "chain of custody" - from the ocean to the final consumer - provides a useful integrating framework for understanding and refining efforts to reduce public health concerns surrounding the consumption of seafood.

  2. JV Task 99-Integrated Risk Analysis and Contaminant Reduction, Watford City, North Dakota

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaroslav Solc; Barry W. Botnen

    2007-05-31

    The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) conducted a limited site investigation and risk analyses for hydrocarbon-contaminated soils and groundwater at a Construction Services, Inc., site in Watford City, North Dakota. Site investigation confirmed the presence of free product and high concentrations of residual gasoline-based contaminants in several wells, the presence of 1,2-dichloroethane, and extremely high levels of electrical conductivity indicative of brine residuals in the tank area south of the facility. The risk analysis was based on compilation of information from the site-specific geotechnical investigation, including multiphase extraction pilot test, laser induced fluorescence probing, evaluation of contaminant properties, receptor survey, capture zone analysis and evaluation of well head protection area for municipal well field. The project results indicate that the risks associated with contaminant occurrence at the Construction Services, Inc. site are low and, under current conditions, there is no direct or indirect exposure pathway between the contaminated groundwater and soils and potential receptors.

  3. Randomized Comparison of Mobile and Web-Tools to Provide Dementia Risk Reduction Education: Use, Engagement and Participant Satisfaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connor, Elodie; Hatherly, Chris

    2014-01-01

    Background Encouraging middle-aged adults to maintain their physical and cognitive health may have a significant impact on reducing the prevalence of dementia in the future. Mobile phone apps and interactive websites may be one effective way to target this age group. However, to date there has been little research investigating the user experience of dementia risk reduction tools delivered in this way. Objective The aim of this study was to explore participant engagement and evaluations of three different targeted smartphone and Web-based dementia risk reduction tools following a four-w