Greater absolute risk for all subtypes of breast cancer in the US than Malaysia.

Science.gov (United States)

Horne, Hisani N; Beena Devi, C R; Sung, Hyuna; Tang, Tieng Swee; Rosenberg, Philip S; Hewitt, Stephen M; Sherman, Mark E; Anderson, William F; Yang, Xiaohong R

2015-01-01

Hormone receptor (HR) negative breast cancers are relatively more common in low-risk than high-risk countries and/or populations. However, the absolute variations between these different populations are not well established given the limited number of cancer registries with incidence rate data by breast cancer subtype. We, therefore, used two unique population-based resources with molecular data to compare incidence rates for the 'intrinsic' breast cancer subtypes between a low-risk Asian population in Malaysia and high-risk non-Hispanic white population in the National Cancer Institute's surveillance, epidemiology, and end results 18 registries database (SEER 18). The intrinsic breast cancer subtypes were recapitulated with the joint expression of the HRs (estrogen receptor and progesterone receptor) and human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER2). Invasive breast cancer incidence rates overall were fivefold greater in SEER 18 than in Malaysia. The majority of breast cancers were HR-positive in SEER 18 and HR-negative in Malaysia. Notwithstanding the greater relative distribution for HR-negative cancers in Malaysia, there was a greater absolute risk for all subtypes in SEER 18; incidence rates were nearly 7-fold higher for HR-positive and 2-fold higher for HR-negative cancers in SEER 18. Despite the well-established relative breast cancer differences between low-risk and high-risk countries and/or populations, there was a greater absolute risk for HR-positive and HR-negative subtypes in the US than Malaysia. Additional analytical studies are sorely needed to determine the factors responsible for the elevated risk of all subtypes of breast cancer in high-risk countries like the United States.

Realized volatility and absolute return volatility: a comparison indicating market risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Zeyu; Qiao, Zhi; Takaishi, Tetsuya; Stanley, H Eugene; Li, Baowen

2014-01-01

Measuring volatility in financial markets is a primary challenge in the theory and practice of risk management and is essential when developing investment strategies. Although the vast literature on the topic describes many different models, two nonparametric measurements have emerged and received wide use over the past decade: realized volatility and absolute return volatility. The former is strongly favored in the financial sector and the latter by econophysicists. We examine the memory and clustering features of these two methods and find that both enable strong predictions. We compare the two in detail and find that although realized volatility has a better short-term effect that allows predictions of near-future market behavior, absolute return volatility is easier to calculate and, as a risk indicator, has approximately the same sensitivity as realized volatility. Our detailed empirical analysis yields valuable guidelines for both researchers and market participants because it provides a significantly clearer comparison of the strengths and weaknesses of the two methods.

Realized volatility and absolute return volatility: a comparison indicating market risk.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zeyu Zheng

Full Text Available Measuring volatility in financial markets is a primary challenge in the theory and practice of risk management and is essential when developing investment strategies. Although the vast literature on the topic describes many different models, two nonparametric measurements have emerged and received wide use over the past decade: realized volatility and absolute return volatility. The former is strongly favored in the financial sector and the latter by econophysicists. We examine the memory and clustering features of these two methods and find that both enable strong predictions. We compare the two in detail and find that although realized volatility has a better short-term effect that allows predictions of near-future market behavior, absolute return volatility is easier to calculate and, as a risk indicator, has approximately the same sensitivity as realized volatility. Our detailed empirical analysis yields valuable guidelines for both researchers and market participants because it provides a significantly clearer comparison of the strengths and weaknesses of the two methods.

The utility of absolute risk prediction using FRAX® and Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator in daily practice.

Science.gov (United States)

van Geel, Tineke A C M; Eisman, John A; Geusens, Piet P; van den Bergh, Joop P W; Center, Jacqueline R; Dinant, Geert-Jan

2014-02-01

There are two commonly used fracture risk prediction tools FRAX(®) and Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator (GARVAN-FRC). The objective of this study was to investigate the utility of these tools in daily practice. A prospective population-based 5-year follow-up study was conducted in ten general practice centres in the Netherlands. For the analyses, the FRAX(®) and GARVAN-FRC 10-year absolute risks (FRAX(®) does not have 5-year risk prediction) for all fractures were used. Among 506 postmenopausal women aged ≥60 years (mean age: 67.8±5.8 years), 48 (9.5%) sustained a fracture during follow-up. Both tools, using BMD values, distinguish between women who did and did not fracture (10.2% vs. 6.8%, respectively for FRAX(®) and 32.4% vs. 39.1%, respectively for GARVAN-FRC, pbetter for women who sustained a fracture (higher sensitivity) and FRAX(®) for women who did not sustain a fracture (higher specificity). Similar results were obtained using age related cut off points. The discriminant value of both models is at least as good as models used in other medical conditions; hence they can be used to communicate the fracture risk to patients. However, given differences in the estimated risks between FRAX(®) and GARVAN-FRC, the significance of the absolute risk must be related to country-specific recommended intervention thresholds to inform the patient. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The absolute risk of venous thrombosis after air travel: a cohort study of 8,755 employees of international organisations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kuipers, Saskia; Cannegieter, Suzanne C.; Middeldorp, Saskia; Robyn, Luc; Buller, Harry R.; Rosendaal, Frits R.

2007-01-01

BACKGROUND: The risk of venous thrombosis is approximately 2- to 4-fold increased after air travel, but the absolute risk is unknown. The objective of this study was to assess the absolute risk of venous thrombosis after air travel. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a cohort study among employees

Confusing Relative Risk with Absolute Risk Is Associated with More Enthusiastic Beliefs about the Value of Cancer Screening.

Science.gov (United States)

Caverly, Tanner J; Prochazka, Allan V; Binswanger, Ingrid A; Kutner, Jean S; Matlock, Daniel D

2014-07-01

Reviews of how data are presented in medical literature document that the benefit from an intervention is often exaggerated relative to the harm (e.g., relative risk for benefit and absolute risk for harm). Such mismatched presentations may create unwarranted enthusiasm, especially among those who misinterpret the statistics presented. The objective was to determine whether misinterpretation of risk data predicts enthusiasm for cancer screening. The authors administered a survey with 14 items assessing beliefs about cancer screening and 6 items measuring data interpretation ability. Multiple linear regression was used to evaluate the association between data interpretation and enthusiasm for cancer screening, with adjustment for gender and year graduated from medical school. Eighty-eight of 139 physicians at a state-wide professional meeting returned completed surveys (63% response rate). Lower data interpretation scores were associated with higher enthusiasm for cancer screening scores (P = 0.004) in the adjusted primary analysis. Confusing relative risk with absolute risk appeared to drive the overall association. Biased presentations of risk data could affect general beliefs about the value of cancer screening, especially among physicians who uncritically accept mismatched presentations of data. © The Author(s) 2014.

The absolute power of relative risk in debates on repeat cesareans and home birth in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Declercq, Eugene

2013-01-01

Changes in policies and practices related to repeat cesareans and home birth in the U.S. have been influenced by different interpretations of the risk of poor outcomes. This article examines two cases-vaginal birth after cesarean (VBAC) and home birth to illustrate how an emphasis on relative over absolute risk has been used to characterize outcomes associated with these practices. The case studies will rely on reviews of the research literature and examination of data on birth trends and outcomes. Childbirth involves some unique challenges in assessing health risks, specifically the issues of: (1) timing of risks (lowering health risk in a current birth can increase it in subsequent births); (2) the potential weighing of risks to the mother's versus the infant's health; (3) the fact that birth is a condition of health and many of the feared outcomes (for example, symptomatic uterine rupture) involve very low absolute risk of occurrence; and (4) a malpractice environment that seizes upon those rare poor outcomes in highly publicized lawsuits that receive widespread attention in the clinical community. In the cases of VBAC and home birth, the result has been considerable emphasis on relative risks, typically an adjusted odds ratio, with little consideration of absolute risks. Assessments of the safety of interventions in childbirth should involve careful consideration and communication of the multiple dimensions of risk, particularly a balancing of relative and absolute risks of poor health outcomes.

One idea of portfolio risk control for absolute return strategy risk adjustments by signals from correlation behavior

Science.gov (United States)

Nishiyama, N.

2001-12-01

Absolute return strategy provided from fund of funds (FOFs) investment schemes is the focus in Japanese Financial Community. FOFs investment mainly consists of hedge fund investment and it has two major characteristics which are low correlation against benchmark index and little impact from various external changes in the environment given maximizing return. According to the historical track record of survival hedge funds in this business world, they maintain a stable high return and low risk. However, one must keep in mind that low risk would not be equal to risk free. The failure of Long-term capital management (LTCM) that took place in the summer of 1998 was a symbolized phenomenon. The summer of 1998 exhibited a certain limitation of traditional value at risk (VaR) and some possibility that traditional VaR could be ineffectual to the nonlinear type of fluctuation in the market. In this paper, I try to bring self-organized criticality (SOC) into portfolio risk control. SOC would be well known as a model of decay in the natural world. I analyzed nonlinear type of fluctuation in the market as SOC and applied SOC to capture complicated market movement using threshold point of SOC and risk adjustments by scenario correlation as implicit signals. Threshold becomes the control parameter of risk exposure to set downside floor and forecast extreme nonlinear type of fluctuation under a certain probability. Simulation results would show synergy effect of portfolio risk control between SOC and absolute return strategy.

MULTISTAGE BITRATE REDUCTION IN ABSOLUTE MOMENT BLOCK TRUNCATION CODING FOR IMAGE COMPRESSION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Vimala

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Absolute Moment Block Truncation Coding (AMBTC is one of the lossy image compression techniques. The computational complexity involved is less and the quality of the reconstructed images is appreciable. The normal AMBTC method requires 2 bits per pixel (bpp. In this paper, two novel ideas have been incorporated as part of AMBTC method to improve the coding efficiency. Generally, the quality degrades with the reduction in the bit-rate. But in the proposed method, the quality of the reconstructed image increases with the decrease in the bit-rate. The proposed method has been tested with standard images like Lena, Barbara, Bridge, Boats and Cameraman. The results obtained are better than that of the existing AMBTC method in terms of bit-rate and the quality of the reconstructed images.

NHS health checks through general practice: randomised trial of population cardiovascular risk reduction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cochrane Thomas

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The global burden of the major vascular diseases is projected to rise and to remain the dominant non-communicable disease cluster well into the twenty first century. The Department of Health in England has developed the NHS Health Check service as a policy initiative to reduce population vascular disease risk. The aims of this study were to monitor population changes in cardiovascular disease (CVD risk factors over the first year of the new service and to assess the value of tailored lifestyle support, including motivational interview with ongoing support and referral to other services. Methods Randomised trial comparing NHS Health Check service only with NHS Health Check service plus additional lifestyle support in Stoke on Trent, England. Thirty eight general practices and 601 (365 usual care, 236 additional lifestyle support patients were recruited and randomised independently between September 2009 and February 2010. Changes in population CVD risk between baseline and one year follow-up were compared, using intention-to-treat analysis. The primary outcome was the Framingham 10 year CVD risk score. Secondary outcomes included individual modifiable risk measures and prevalence of individual risk categories. Additional lifestyle support included referral to a lifestyle coach and free sessions as needed for: weight management, physical activity, cook and eat and positive thinking. Results Average population CVD risk decreased from 32.9% to 29.4% (p Conclusions The NHS Health Check service in Stoke on Trent resulted in significant reduction in estimated population CVD risk. There was no evidence of further benefit of the additional lifestyle support services in terms of absolute CVD risk reduction.

Ten-year absolute risk of osteoporotic fractures according to BMD T score at menopause: the Danish Osteoporosis Prevention Study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Abrahamsen, Bo; Vestergaard, Peter; Rud, Bo

2006-01-01

was 10.9% as opposed to an expected risk of 5.7%. Relative risk gradients were similar to those of the recent meta-analysis. CONCLUSIONS: In healthy women, examined in the first year or two after menopause, 10-year fracture risk was higher at each level of BMD T score than expected from the model...... by Kanis et al. Inclusion of HRT users in the cohorts used may have led to higher BMD values and lower absolute fracture risk in the Kanis model. These longitudinal data can be used directly in estimating absolute fracture risk in untreated north European women from BMD at menopause....

Relative and absolute risk models for cancer mortality in ankylosing spondylitis patients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Muirhead, C.R.; Darby, S.C.

1989-01-01

The updated analyses presented in this paper have indicated that, even after allowing for the effects of other variables, the relative risk of all cancers excluding leukaemia and colon cancer among the irradiated spondylitics tails off beyond twenty-five years following exposure. Additionally, the corresponding absolute excess risk also tails off. This is still the only major study to show a wearing off of the radiation-related risk for such a grouping of cancers (although some wearing off has been seen for individual cancers such as bone in other studies). Further analysis of the spondylitic data (Darby, Doll and Smith, 1988) has not found any artificial explanation for the tailing off in risk, such as changes in lifestyle. However, it is noticeable that the dose was delivered to the spondylitics in fractions (see Lewis et al., 1988, table IV) rather than instantaneously, although it is not immediately obvious why this should have affected the temporal pattern of the risk. (author)

Predicting absolute risk of type 2 diabetes using age and waist circumference values in an aboriginal Australian community.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Odewumi Adegbija

Full Text Available To predict in an Australian Aboriginal community, the 10-year absolute risk of type 2 diabetes associated with waist circumference and age on baseline examination.A sample of 803 diabetes-free adults (82.3% of the age-eligible population from baseline data of participants collected from 1992 to 1998 were followed-up for up to 20 years till 2012. The Cox-proportional hazard model was used to estimate the effects of waist circumference and other risk factors, including age, smoking and alcohol consumption status, of males and females on prediction of type 2 diabetes, identified through subsequent hospitalisation data during the follow-up period. The Weibull regression model was used to calculate the absolute risk estimates of type 2 diabetes with waist circumference and age as predictors.Of 803 participants, 110 were recorded as having developed type 2 diabetes, in subsequent hospitalizations over a follow-up of 12633.4 person-years. Waist circumference was strongly associated with subsequent diagnosis of type 2 diabetes with P<0.0001 for both genders and remained statistically significant after adjusting for confounding factors. Hazard ratios of type 2 diabetes associated with 1 standard deviation increase in waist circumference were 1.7 (95%CI 1.3 to 2.2 for males and 2.1 (95%CI 1.7 to 2.6 for females. At 45 years of age with baseline waist circumference of 100 cm, a male had an absolute diabetic risk of 10.9%, while a female had a 14.3% risk of the disease.The constructed model predicts the 10-year absolute diabetes risk in an Aboriginal Australian community. It is simple and easily understood and will help identify individuals at risk of diabetes in relation to waist circumference values. Our findings on the relationship between waist circumference and diabetes on gender will be useful for clinical consultation, public health education and establishing WC cut-off points for Aboriginal Australians.

Optimising risk reduction: An expected utility approach for marginal risk reduction during regulatory decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Jiawei; Pollard, Simon; Kendall, Graham; Soane, Emma; Davies, Gareth

2009-01-01

In practice, risk and uncertainty are essentially unavoidable in many regulation processes. Regulators frequently face a risk-benefit trade-off since zero risk is neither practicable nor affordable. Although it is accepted that cost-benefit analysis is important in many scenarios of risk management, what role it should play in a decision process is still controversial. One criticism of cost-benefit analysis is that decision makers should consider marginal benefits and costs, not present ones, in their decision making. In this paper, we investigate the problem of regulatory decision making under risk by applying expected utility theory and present a new approach of cost-benefit analysis. Directly taking into consideration the reduction of the risks, this approach achieves marginal cost-benefit analysis. By applying this approach, the optimal regulatory decision that maximizes the marginal benefit of risk reduction can be considered. This provides a transparent and reasonable criterion for stakeholders involved in the regulatory activity. An example of evaluating seismic retrofitting alternatives is provided to demonstrate the potential of the proposed approach.

Methodological issues in cardiovascular epidemiology: the risk of determining absolute risk through statistical models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Demosthenes B Panagiotakos

2006-09-01

Full Text Available Demosthenes B Panagiotakos, Vassilis StavrinosOffice of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, Department of Dietetics, Nutrition, Harokopio University, Athens, GreeceAbstract: During the past years there has been increasing interest in the development of cardiovascular disease functions that predict future events at individual level. However, this effort has not been so far very successful, since several investigators have reported large differences in the estimation of the absolute risk among different populations. For example, it seems that predictive models that have been derived from US or north European populations  overestimate the incidence of cardiovascular events in south European and Japanese populations. A potential explanation could be attributed to several factors such as geographical, cultural, social, behavioral, as well as genetic variations between the investigated populations in addition to various methodological, statistical, issues relating to the estimation of these predictive models. Based on current literature it can be concluded that, while risk prediction of future cardiovascular events is a useful tool and might be valuable in controlling the burden of the disease in a population, further work is required to improve the accuracy of the present predictive models.Keywords: cardiovascular disease, risk, models

Relative Hazard and Risk Measure Calculation Methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stenner, Robert D.; Strenge, Dennis L.; Elder, Matthew S.; Andrews, William B.; Walton, Terry L.

2003-01-01

The RHRM equations, as represented in methodology and code presented in this report, are primarily a collection of key factors normally used in risk assessment that are relevant to understanding the hazards and risks associated with projected mitigation, cleanup, and risk management activities. The RHRM code has broad application potential. For example, it can be used to compare one mitigation, cleanup, or risk management activity with another, instead of just comparing it to just the fixed baseline. If the appropriate source term data are available, it can be used in its non-ratio form to estimate absolute values of the associated controlling hazards and risks. These estimated values of controlling hazards and risks can then be examined to help understand which mitigation, cleanup, or risk management activities are addressing the higher hazard conditions and risk reduction potential at a site. Graphics can be generated from these absolute controlling hazard and risk values to graphically compare these high hazard and risk reduction potential conditions. If the RHRM code is used in this manner, care must be taken to specifically define and qualify (e.g., identify which factors were considered and which ones tended to drive the hazard and risk estimates) the resultant absolute controlling hazard and risk values

Flux and permanence of risk perceptions: Tourists' perception of the relative and absolute risk for various destinations.

Science.gov (United States)

Wolff, Katharina; Larsen, Svein

2016-12-01

The present investigation is a cross-sectional, multi-national, quantitative, and quasi-experimental comparison of tourists' risk perceptions regarding different destinations throughout the past decade. Over 10,000 tourists to Norway from 89 different countries filled in a questionnaire rating the perceived risk for various destinations. Data were collected during 2004, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2015 and allow for a comparison of perceived risk across time, place and nationality. Results show that while absolute risk judgments for different destinations fluctuate somewhat over the years, relative risk judgments remain constant. Findings also reveal a "home-is-safer-then-abroad-bias" with tourists consistently perceiving their home country among the safest destinations. The current investigation is rare because it looks at more than one destination at a time. Insights gained from the present findings diverge from what would have been concluded from employing case studies, that is, looking at one destination at a time. © 2016 The Authors. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology published by Scandinavian Psychological Associations and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Outage risk reduction at Diablo Canyon

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burnett, Tobias W.T.; Eugene Newman, C.

2004-01-01

A formal risk reduction program was conducted at the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Generating plant as part of EPRI's Outage Risk Assessment and Management Program. The program began with a probabilistic and deterministic assessment of the frequency of core coolant boiling and core uncovery during shutdown operations. This step identified important contributors to risk, periods of high vulnerability, and potential mechanisms for reducing risk. Next, recovery strategies were evaluated and procedures, training, and outage schedules modified. Twelve risk reduction enhancements were developed and implemented. These enhancements and their impact are described in this paper. These enhancements reduced the calculated risk of core uncovery by about a factor of four for a refueling outage without lengthening the outage schedule; increased the outage efficiency, contributing to completing 11 days ahead of schedule; and helped to earn the highest achievable SALP rating from the NRC. (author)

Adaptation of an HIV behavioural disinhibition risk reduction ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Adaptation of an HIV behavioural disinhibition risk reduction intervention for ... disinhibition risk reduction interventions for recently circumcised men for use in clinic ... medicine HIV prevention technologies into the male circumcision contexts.

Trends in absolute and relative educational inequalities in four modifiable ischaemic heart disease risk factors: repeated cross-sectional surveys from the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT 1984–2008

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ernstsen Linda

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background There has been an overall decrease in incident ischaemic heart disease (IHD, but the reduction in IHD risk factors has been greater among those with higher social position. Increased social inequalities in IHD mortality in Scandinavian countries is often referred to as the Scandinavian “public health puzzle”. The objective of this study was to examine trends in absolute and relative educational inequalities in four modifiable ischaemic heart disease risk factors (smoking, diabetes, hypertension and high total cholesterol over the last three decades among Norwegian middle-aged women and men. Methods Population-based, cross-sectional data from The Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT: HUNT 1 (1984–1986, HUNT 2 (1995–1997 and HUNT 3 (2006–2008, women and men 40–59 years old. Educational inequalities were assessed using the Slope Index of Inequality (SII and The Relative Index of Inequality (RII. Results Smoking prevalence increased for all education groups among women and decreased in men. Relative and absolute educational inequalities in smoking widened in both genders, with significantly higher absolute inequalities among women than men in the two last surveys. Diabetes prevalence increased in all groups. Relative inequalities in diabetes were stable, while absolute inequalities increased both among women (p = 0.05 and among men (p = 0.01. Hypertension prevalence decreased in all groups. Relative inequalities in hypertension widened over time in both genders. However, absolute inequalities in hypertension decreased among women (p = 0.05 and were stable among men (p = 0.33. For high total cholesterol relative and absolute inequalities remained stable in both genders. Conclusion Widening absolute educational inequalities in smoking and diabetes over the last three decades gives rise to concern. The mechanisms behind these results are less clear, and future studies are needed to assess if educational

Disaster risk reduction and sustainable development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khurshedi, N.

2005-01-01

During the past four decades, natural hazards such as earthquakes, volcanic activity, and slides, tsunami tropical cyclones and other severe storms, tornadoes and high winds, river floods and coastal flooding, wildfire and associated haze drought, sand/dust storms, and insect infestations have caused major loss of human lives and livelihoods, the destruction of economic and social infrastructure, as well as environmental damages. Economic losses have increased almost ten times during this period. As it happen in recent Asia Tsunami, in which over 2, 00,000 people reportedly killed, estimated five million homeless, and resulted in massive displacement of population and extensive damage to infrastructure. The escalation of severe disaster events triggered by natural hazards and related technological and environment disasters is increasingly threatening both sustainable development and poverty-reduction initiatives. The loss of human lives and the rise in the cost of reconstruction efforts and loss of development assets has forced the issue of disaster reduction and risk management higher on the policy agenda of affected governments as well a multilateral and bilateral agencies and NGOs. For this Disaster risk reduction-.strategies are aimed at enabling societies at risk to become engaged in the conscious management of risk and the reduction of vulnerability. The adoption of appropriate development policies can reduce disaster risk. These policies should be gender sensitive and need the necessary political commitment. They involve the adoption of suitable regulatory and other legal measures, institutional reform, improved analytical and methodological capabilities, financial planning, education and awareness. (author)

Optimal Risk Reduction in the Railway Industry by Using Dynamic Programming

OpenAIRE

Michael Todinov; Eberechi Weli

2013-01-01

The paper suggests for the first time the use of dynamic programming techniques for optimal risk reduction in the railway industry. It is shown that by using the concept ‘amount of removed risk by a risk reduction option’, the problem related to optimal allocation of a fixed budget to achieve a maximum risk reduction in the railway industry can be reduced to an optimisation problem from dynamic programming. For n risk reduction options and size of the available risk reduction budget B (expres...

Baseline risk and marginal willingness to pay for health risk reduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Gerking, Shelby; Adamowicz, Wiktor; Dickie, Mark; Veronesi, Marcella

2017-01-01

Empirical results presented in this paper suggest that parents' marginal willingness to pay (MWTP) for a reduction in morbidity risk from heart disease is inversely related to baseline risk (i.e., the amount of risk initially faced) both for themselves and for their children. For instance, a 40% reduction from the mean of baseline risk results in an increase in MWTP by 70% or more. Thus, estimates of monetary benefits of public programs to reduce heart disease risk would be understated if the standard practice is followed of evaluating MWTP at initial risk levels and then multiplying this value by the number of cases avoided. Estimates are supported by: (1) unique quantitative information on perceptions of the risk of getting heart disease that allow baseline risk to be defined at an individual level and (2) improved econometric procedures to control for well-known difficulties associated with stated preference data.

Portfolio optimization using Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR

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Lucas Pelegrin da Silva

Full Text Available Abstract This paper investigates the efficiency of traditional portfolio optimization models when the returns of financial assets are highly volatile, e.g., in financial crises periods. We also develop alternative optimization models that combine the mean absolute deviation (MAD and the conditional value at risk (CVaR, attempting to mitigate inefficient, low return and/or high-risk, portfolios. Three methodologies for estimating the probability of the asset’s historical returns are also compared. By using historical data on the Brazilian stock market between 2004 and 2013, we analyze the efficiency of the proposed approaches. Our results show that the traditional models provide portfolios with higher returns, but our propose model are able to generate lower risk portfolios, which might be more attractive in volatile markets. In addition, we find that models that do not use equiprobable scenarios produce better results in terms of return and risk.

The Global Earthquake Model and Disaster Risk Reduction

Science.gov (United States)

Smolka, A. J.

2015-12-01

Advanced, reliable and transparent tools and data to assess earthquake risk are inaccessible to most, especially in less developed regions of the world while few, if any, globally accepted standards currently allow a meaningful comparison of risk between places. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a collaborative effort that aims to provide models, datasets and state-of-the-art tools for transparent assessment of earthquake hazard and risk. As part of this goal, GEM and its global network of collaborators have developed the OpenQuake engine (an open-source software for hazard and risk calculations), the OpenQuake platform (a web-based portal making GEM's resources and datasets freely available to all potential users), and a suite of tools to support modelers and other experts in the development of hazard, exposure and vulnerability models. These resources are being used extensively across the world in hazard and risk assessment, from individual practitioners to local and national institutions, and in regional projects to inform disaster risk reduction. Practical examples for how GEM is bridging the gap between science and disaster risk reduction are: - Several countries including Switzerland, Turkey, Italy, Ecuador, Papua-New Guinea and Taiwan (with more to follow) are computing national seismic hazard using the OpenQuake-engine. In some cases these results are used for the definition of actions in building codes. - Technical support, tools and data for the development of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk models for regional projects in South America and Sub-Saharan Africa. - Going beyond physical risk, GEM's scorecard approach evaluates local resilience by bringing together neighborhood/community leaders and the risk reduction community as a basis for designing risk reduction programs at various levels of geography. Actual case studies are Lalitpur in the Kathmandu Valley in Nepal and Quito/Ecuador. In agreement with GEM's collaborative approach, all

Absolute measurement of a tritium standard

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hadzisehovic, M.; Mocilnik, I.; Buraei, K.; Pongrac, S.; Milojevic, A.

1978-01-01

For the determination of a tritium absolute activity standard, a method of internal gas counting has been used. The procedure involves water reduction by uranium and zinc further the measurement of the absolute disintegration rate of tritium per unit of the effective volume of the counter by a compensation method. Criteria for the choice of methods and procedures concerning the determination and measurement of gaseous 3 H yield, parameters of gaseous hydrogen, sample mass of HTO and the absolute disintegration rate of tritium are discussed. In order to obtain gaseous sources of 3 H (and 2 H), the same reversible chemical reaction was used, namely, the water - uranium hydride - hydrogen system. This reaction was proved to be quantitative above 500 deg C by measuring the yield of the gas obtained and the absolute activity of an HTO standard. A brief description of the measuring apparatus is given, as well as a critical discussion of the brass counter quality and the possibility of obtaining equal working conditions at the counter ends. (T.G.)

Risk reduction by filtered venting in PWR large dry-containments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gazzillo, F.; Kastenberg, W.E.

1984-01-01

The potential risk reduction associated with a Filtered-Vented Containment System is evaluated. A low-volume venting strategy has been considered and data referring to the Zion power plant, along with the results of the Zion Probabilistic Safety Study, have been used. An estimate of the reduction factor is first made for a single core melt accident sequence whose containment failure mode is late overpressure. The result, interpreted as a reduction factor applicable to the release category associated with containment late overpressure is then used for the estimation of the overall risk reduction factor. In particular, the case of internal and external risk for the Zion power plant are considered. Because the contribution from seismic events dominates the overall risk, the importance of different assumptions for seismic fragility is also assessed. Finally an uncertainty analysis of the risk reduction factor for a single accident sequence is performed. An estimate is also obtained on the level of confidence with which certain required values of risk reduction can be achieved. (orig.)

POLLUTION PREVENTION RESEARCH ONGOING - EPA'S RISK REDUCTION ENGINEERING LABORATORY

Science.gov (United States)

The mission of the Risk Reduction Engineering Laboratory is to advance the understanding, development and application of engineering solutions for the prevention or reduction of risks from environmental contamination. This mission is accomplished through basic and applied researc...

Wide variation in absolute cardiovascular risk assessment in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people with Type 2 diabetes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bhakti Ramesh Vasant

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Background: Absolute cardiovascular risk assessment (CVRA is based on the combined effects of multiple risk factors and can identify asymptomatic individuals at high risk of cardiovascular disease. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people are disproportionately affected by cardiovascular disease and diabetes. Our study aimed to investigate variations in the use of absolute CVRA in patients with diabetes at Indigenous community healthcare centres, and to identify patient and health centre characteristics that may contribute to this variation. Methods: Audits of clinical records of 1,728 patients with a known diagnosis of diabetes across 121 health centres over the period 2012–2014 were conducted as part of a large-scale continuous quality improvement program. Multilevel regression modelling was used to quantify variation in recording of CVRA attributable to health centre and patient characteristics. Results: The proportion of eligible patients with documented CVRA was 33% (n=574/1,728. The majority (95% of assessments were conducted in the Northern Territory (NT. Multilevel regression analysis showed health centre characteristics accounted for 70% of the variation in assessments in the NT. Government-operated health centres had 18.8 times the odds (95% CI 7.7–46.2 of recording CVRA delivery compared with other health centres. Conclusion: Health centres in the NT delivered the majority of absolute CVRA to Indigenous patients with diabetes in our study. Health systems factors that may have facilitated provision of CVRA in the NT include decision support tools and a reporting process for CVRA delivery. Implementation of similar systems in other jurisdictions may help improve CVRA delivery. Early identification and treatment of high risk individuals through wider use of CVRA may help reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease in Indigenous Australians with diabetes.

Communication about melanoma and risk reduction after melanoma diagnosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodríguez, Vivian M; Berwick, Marianne; Hay, Jennifer L

2017-12-01

Melanoma patients are advised to perform regular risk-reduction practices, including sun protection as well as skin self-examinations (SSEs) and physician-led examinations. Melanoma-specific communication regarding family risk and screening may promote such behaviors. To this end, associations between patients' melanoma-specific communication and risk reduction were examined. Melanoma patients (N = 169) drawn from a population-based cancer registry reported their current risk-reduction practices, perceived risk of future melanoma, and communication with physicians and relatives about melanoma risk and screening. Patients were, on average, 56 years old and 6.7 years' post diagnosis; 51% were male, 93% reported "fair/very fair" skin color, 75% completed at least some college, and 22% reported a family history of melanoma. Patients reported varying levels of regular (always/nearly always) sun protection: sunscreen use (79%), shade seeking (60%), hat use (54%), and long-sleeve shirt use (30%). Only 28% performed thorough SSE regularly, whereas 92% reported undergoing physician-led skin examinations within the past year. Participants who were female, younger, and had a higher perceived risk of future melanoma were more likely to report past communication. In adjusted analyses, communication remained uniquely associated with increased sunscreen use and SSE. Encouraging melanoma patients to have a more active role in discussions concerning melanoma risk and screening with relatives and physicians alike may be a useful strategy to promote 2 key risk-reduction practices post melanoma diagnosis and treatment. Future research is needed to identify additional strategies to improve comprehensive risk reduction in long-term melanoma patients. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Integrated risk reduction framework to improve railway hazardous materials transportation safety

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liu, Xiang, E-mail: liu94@illinois.edu; Saat, M. Rapik, E-mail: mohdsaat@illinois.edu; Barkan, Christopher P.L., E-mail: cbarkan@illinois.edu

2013-09-15

Highlights: • An integrated framework is developed to optimize risk reduction. • A negative binomial regression model is developed to analyze accident-cause-specific railcar derailment probability. • A Pareto-optimality technique is applied to determine the lowest risk given any level of resource. • A multi-attribute decision model is developed to determine the optimal amount of investment for risk reduction. • The models could aid the government and rail industry in developing cost-efficient risk reduction policy and practice. -- Abstract: Rail transportation plays a critical role to safely and efficiently transport hazardous materials. A number of strategies have been implemented or are being developed to reduce the risk of hazardous materials release from train accidents. Each of these risk reduction strategies has its safety benefit and corresponding implementation cost. However, the cost effectiveness of the integration of different risk reduction strategies is not well understood. Meanwhile, there has been growing interest in the U.S. rail industry and government to best allocate resources for improving hazardous materials transportation safety. This paper presents an optimization model that considers the combination of two types of risk reduction strategies, broken rail prevention and tank car safety design enhancement. A Pareto-optimality technique is used to maximize risk reduction at a given level of investment. The framework presented in this paper can be adapted to address a broader set of risk reduction strategies and is intended to assist decision makers for local, regional and system-wide risk management of rail hazardous materials transportation.

VAR Portfolio Optimal: Perbandingan Antara Metode Markowitz dan Mean Absolute Deviation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Agus Sartono

2009-05-01

Full Text Available Portfolio selection method which have been introduced by Harry Markowitz (1952 used variance or deviation standard as a measure of risk. Kanno and Yamazaki (1991 introduced another method and used mean absolute deviation as a measure of risk instead of variance. The Value-at Risk (VaR is a relatively new method to capitalized risk that been used by financial institutions. The aim of this research is compare between mean variance and mean absolute deviation of two portfolios. Next, we attempt to assess the VaR of two portfolios using delta normal method and historical simulation. We use the secondary data from the Jakarta Stock Exchange – LQ45 during 2003. We find that there is a weak-positive correlation between deviation standard and return in both portfolios. The VaR nolmal delta based on mean absolute deviation method eventually is higher than the VaR normal delta based on mean variance method. However, based on the historical simulation the VaR of two methods is statistically insignificant. Thus, the deviation standard is sufficient measures of portfolio risk.Keywords: optimalisasi portofolio, mean-variance, mean-absolute deviation, value-at-risk, metode delta normal, metode simulasi historis

Relationships among Trust in Messages, Risk Perception, and Risk Reduction Preferences Based upon Avian Influenza in Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Fang, David; Fang, Chen-Ling; Tsai, Bi-Kun; Lan, Li-Chi; Hsu, Wen-Shan

2012-01-01

Improvements in communications technology enable consumers to receive information through diverse channels. In the case of avian influenza, information repeated by the mass media socially amplifies the consumer awareness of risks. Facing indeterminate risks, consumers may feel anxious and increase their risk perception. When consumers trust the information published by the media, their uncertainty toward avian influenza may decrease. Consumers might take some actions to reduce risk. Therefore, this study focuses on relationships among trust in messages, risk perception and risk reduction preferences. This study administered 525 random samples and consumer survey questionnaires in different city of Taiwan in 2007. Through statistical analysis, the results demonstrate: (1) the higher the trust consumers have in messages about avian influenza, the lower their risk perceptions are; (2) the higher the consumers’ risk perceptions are and, therefore, the higher their desired level of risk reductive, the more likely they are to accept risk reduction strategies; (3) consumer attributes such as age, education level, and marital status correlate with significant differences in risk perception and risk reduction preferences acceptance. Gender has significant differences only in risk reduction preferences and not in risk perception. PMID:23066394

Relationships among Trust in Messages, Risk Perception, and Risk Reduction Preferences Based upon Avian Influenza in Taiwan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wen-Shan Hsu

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Improvements in communications technology enable consumers to receive information through diverse channels. In the case of avian influenza, information repeated by the mass media socially amplifies the consumer awareness of risks. Facing indeterminate risks, consumers may feel anxious and increase their risk perception. When consumers trust the information published by the media, their uncertainty toward avian influenza may decrease. Consumers might take some actions to reduce risk. Therefore, this study focuses on relationships among trust in messages, risk perception and risk reduction preferences. This study administered 525 random samples and consumer survey questionnaires in different city of Taiwan in 2007. Through statistical analysis, the results demonstrate: (1 the higher the trust consumers have in messages about avian influenza, the lower their risk perceptions are; (2 the higher the consumers’ risk perceptions are and, therefore, the higher their desired level of risk reductive, the more likely they are to accept risk reduction strategies; (3 consumer attributes such as age, education level, and marital status correlate with significant differences in risk perception and risk reduction preferences acceptance. Gender has significant differences only in risk reduction preferences and not in risk perception.

VAR Portfolio Optimal: Perbandingan Antara Metode Markowitz Dan Mean Absolute Deviation

OpenAIRE

Sartono, R. Agus; Setiawan, Arie Andika

2006-01-01

Portfolio selection method which have been introduced by Harry Markowitz (1952) used variance or deviation standard as a measure of risk. Kanno and Yamazaki (1991) introduced another method and used mean absolute deviation as a measure of risk instead of variance. The Value-at Risk (VaR) is a relatively new method to capitalized risk that been used by financial institutions. The aim of this research is compare between mean variance and mean absolute deviation of two portfolios. Next, we attem...

RISK TRANSFER AND RISK REDUCTION OF ATHLETES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Željko Vojinović

2011-09-01

Full Text Available One of the indispensable factors in sports is insurance. The accidents influence not only the health, permanently or temporarily,they also influence the financial resources, more or less, depending on the recovery time of the injuries. Insurer in this case pay the agreed amount (the agreed compensation to the insured. Each participant in the sporting competition should have personal insurance. The reasons for the theme are to find ways to explain how athletes can reduce the risks they are exposed to in doing their activities, training and competition, and other moments in life. Every man has a need for certainty in the future, regardless of the category in which he works, the values and skills available. The only difference is in absolute values and everyone has his own need. Athletes ,those from less successful to the most successful ones, whose transfers or fees are in millions, all think about the future and of course how to save and invest funds that are earned. They can find a solution in insurance, as an institution that takes over their risks, taking care of the invested money and benefits of those stakes. When there is uncertainty in our lives we seek security and see it as a basic need. Insurers claim that insurance offers just that - the security of property and life

Disaster management and risk reduction in South Africa

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Bruwer, A

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The 2015 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction concludes that the mortality and economic loss associated with extensive risks (minor but recurrent disaster risks) in low- and middle-income countries are trending up. In the last decade...

Integrated risk reduction framework to improve railway hazardous materials transportation safety.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Xiang; Saat, M Rapik; Barkan, Christopher P L

2013-09-15

Rail transportation plays a critical role to safely and efficiently transport hazardous materials. A number of strategies have been implemented or are being developed to reduce the risk of hazardous materials release from train accidents. Each of these risk reduction strategies has its safety benefit and corresponding implementation cost. However, the cost effectiveness of the integration of different risk reduction strategies is not well understood. Meanwhile, there has been growing interest in the U.S. rail industry and government to best allocate resources for improving hazardous materials transportation safety. This paper presents an optimization model that considers the combination of two types of risk reduction strategies, broken rail prevention and tank car safety design enhancement. A Pareto-optimality technique is used to maximize risk reduction at a given level of investment. The framework presented in this paper can be adapted to address a broader set of risk reduction strategies and is intended to assist decision makers for local, regional and system-wide risk management of rail hazardous materials transportation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The efficacy of serostatus disclosure for HIV Transmission risk reduction.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Connell, Ann A; Reed, Sandra J; Serovich, Julianne A

2015-02-01

Interventions to assist HIV+ persons in disclosing their serostatus to sexual partners can play an important role in curbing rates of HIV transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM). Based on the methods of Pinkerton and Galletly (AIDS Behav 11:698-705, 2007), we develop a mathematical probability model for evaluating effectiveness of serostatus disclosure in reducing the risk of HIV transmission and extend the model to examine the impact of serosorting. In baseline data from 164 HIV+ MSM participating in a randomized controlled trial of a disclosure intervention, disclosure is associated with a 45.0 % reduction in the risk of HIV transmission. Accounting for serosorting, a 61.2 % reduction in risk due to disclosure was observed in serodisconcordant couples. The reduction in risk for seroconcordant couples was 38.4 %. Evidence provided supports the value of serostatus disclosure as a risk reduction strategy in HIV+ MSM. Interventions to increase serostatus disclosure and that address serosorting behaviors are needed.

Waiting for Disasters: A Risk Reduction Assessment of Technological Disasters

Science.gov (United States)

Rovins, Jane; Winningham, Sam

2010-05-01

This session provides a risk reduction/mitigation assessment of natural hazards causation of technological disasters and possible solution. People use technology in an attempt to not only control their environment but nature itself in order to make them feel safe and productive. Most strategies for managing hazards followed a traditional planning model i.e. study the problem, identify and implement a solution, and move on to the next problem. This approach is often viewed as static model and risk reduction is more of an upward, positive, linear trend. However, technological disasters do not allow risk reduction action to neatly fit this upward, positive, linear trend with actual or potential threats to the environment and society. There are different types of technological disasters, including industrial accidents; pipeline ruptures; accidents at power, water and heat supply systems and other lines of communication; sudden collapse of buildings and mines; air crashes; shipwrecks; automobile and railway accidents to name a few. Natural factors can play an essential role in triggering or magnifying technological disasters. They can result from the direct destruction of given technical objects by a hazardous natural process such as the destruction of an atomic power plant or chemical plant due to an earthquake. Other examples would include the destruction of communications or infrastructure systems by heavy snowfalls, strong winds, avalanches. Events in the past ten years clearly demonstrate that natural disasters and the technological disasters that accompany them are not problems that can be solved in isolation and risk reduction can play an important part. Risk reduction was designed to head off the continuing rising financial and structural tolls from disasters. All Hazard Risk Reduction planning was supposed to include not only natural, but technological, and human-made disasters as well. The subsequent disaster risk reduction (DRR) indicators were to provide the

Clinical utility of rosuvastatin and other statins for cardiovascular risk reduction among the elderly

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sydney B Long

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Sydney B Long, Michael J Blaha, Roger S Blumenthal, Erin D MichosJohns Hopkins Ciccarone Center for the Prevention of Heart Disease, Baltimore, MD, USAAbstract: Age is one of the strongest predictors of cardiovascular disease (CVD risk. Treatment with statins can significantly reduce CVD events and mortality in both primary and secondary prevention. Yet despite the high CVD risk among the elderly, there is underutilization of statins in this population (ie, the treatment-risk paradox. Few studies have investigated the use of statins in the elderly, particularly for primary prevention and, as a result, guidelines for treating the elderly are limited. This is likely due to: uncertainties of risk assessment in older individuals where the predictive value of individual risk factors is decreased; the need to balance the benefits of primary prevention with the risks of polypharmacy, health care costs, and adverse medication effects in a population with decreased life expectancy; the complexity of treating patients with many other comorbidities; and increasingly difficult social and economic concerns. As life expectancy increases and the total elderly population grows, these issues become increasingly important. JUPITER (Justification for the Use of statins in Prevention: an Intervention Trial Evaluating Rosuvastatin is the largest primary prevention statin trial to date and enrolled a substantial number of elderly adults. Among the 5695 JUPITER participants ≥70 years of age, the absolute CVD risk reduction associated with rosuvastatin was actually greater than for younger participants. The implications of this JUPITER subanalysis and the broader role of statins among older adults is the subject of this review.Keywords: JUPITER, rosuvastatin, elderly, risk

Sound transit climate risk reduction project.

Science.gov (United States)

2013-09-01

The Climate Risk Reduction Project assessed how climate change may affect Sound Transit commuter rail, light rail, and express bus : services. The project identified potential climate change impacts on agency operations, assets, and long-term plannin...

Ecosystem Approach To Flood Disaster Risk Reduction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

RK Kamble

2013-12-01

Full Text Available India is one of the ten worst disaster prone countries of the world. The country is prone to disasters due to number of factors; both natural and anthropogenic, including adverse geo-climatic conditions, topographical features, environmental degradation, population growth, urbanisation, industrlisation, non-scientific development practices etc. The factors either in original or by accelerating the intensity and frequency of disasters are responsible for heavy toll of human lives and disrupting the life support systems in the country. India has 40 million hectares of the flood-prone area, on an average, flood affect an area of around 7.5 million hectares per year. Knowledge of environmental systems and processes are key factors in the management of disasters, particularly the hydro-metrological ones. Management of flood risk and disaster is a multi-dimensional affair that calls for interdisciplinary approach. Ecosystem based disaster risk reduction builds on ecosystem management principles, strategies and tools in order to maximise ecosystem services for risk reduction. This perspective takes into account the integration of social and ecological systems, placing people at the centre of decision making. The present paper has been attempted to demonstrate how ecosystem-based approach can help in flood disaster risk reduction. International Journal of Environment, Volume-2, Issue-1, Sep-Nov 2013, Pages 70-82 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/ije.v2i1.9209

Involved Node, Site, Field and Residual Volume Radiotherapy for Lymphoma: A Comparison of Organ at Risk Dosimetry and Second Malignancy Risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Murray, L; Sethugavalar, B; Robertshaw, H; Bayman, E; Thomas, E; Gilson, D; Prestwich, R J D

2015-07-01

Recent radiotherapy guidelines for lymphoma have included involved site radiotherapy (ISRT), involved node radiotherapy (INRT) and irradiation of residual volume after full-course chemotherapy. In the absence of late toxicity data, we aim to compare organ at risk (OAR) dose-metrics and calculated second malignancy risks. Fifteen consecutive patients who had received mediastinal radiotherapy were included. Four radiotherapy plans were generated for each patient using a parallel pair photon technique: (i) involved field radiotherapy (IFRT), (ii) ISRT, (iii) INRT, (iv) residual post-chemotherapy volume. The radiotherapy dose was 30 Gy in 15 fractions. The OARs evaluated were: breasts, lungs, thyroid, heart, oesophagus. Relative and absolute second malignancy rates were estimated using the concept of organ equivalent dose. Significance was defined as P risks of second cancers were significantly higher with IFRT compared with ISRT for lung, breast and thyroid; INRT and residual volume resulted in significantly lower relative risks compared with ISRT for lung, breast and thyroid. The median excess absolute risks of second cancers were consistently lowest for the residual technique and highest for IFRT in terms of thyroid, lung and breast cancers. The risk of oesophageal cancer was similar for all four techniques. Overall, the absolute risk of second cancers was very similar for ISRT and INRT. Decreasing treatment volumes from IFRT to ISRT, INRT or residual volume reduces radiation exposure to OARs. Second malignancy modelling suggests that this reduction in treatment volumes will lead to a reduction in absolute excess second malignancy. Little difference was observed in second malignancy risks between ISRT and INRT, supporting the use of ISRT in the absence of a pre-chemotherapy positron emission tomography scan in the radiotherapy treatment position. Copyright © 2015 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of smoking reduction on lung cancer risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Godtfredsen, Nina S; Prescott, Eva; Osler, Merete

2005-01-01

Many smokers are unable or unwilling to completely quit smoking. A proposed means of harm reduction is to reduce the number of cigarettes smoked per day. However, it is not clear whether this strategy decreases the risk for tobacco-related diseases.......Many smokers are unable or unwilling to completely quit smoking. A proposed means of harm reduction is to reduce the number of cigarettes smoked per day. However, it is not clear whether this strategy decreases the risk for tobacco-related diseases....

Approaches and methods of risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rowe, W.D.

1983-01-01

The classification system of risk assessment includes the categories: 1) risk comparisons, 2) cost-effectiveness of risk reduction, 3) balancing of costs, risks and benefits against one another, 4. Metasystems. An overview of methods and systems reveals that no single method can be applied to all cases and situations. The visibility of the process and the absolute consideration of all aspects of judging are, however, of first and fore most importance. (DG) [de

Risk management study for the Hanford Site facilities: Risk reduction cost comparison for the retired Hanford Site facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coles, G.A.; Egge, R.G.; Senger, E.; Shultz, M.W.; Taylor, W.E.

1994-02-01

This document provides a cost-comparison evaluation for implementing certain risk-reduction measures and their effect on the overall risk of the 100 and 200 Area retired, surplus facilities. The evaluation is based on conditions that existed at the time the risk evaluation team performed facility investigations, and does not acknowledge risk-reduction measures that occurred soon after risk identification. This evaluation is one part of an overall risk management study for these facilities. The retired facilities investigated for this evaluation are located in the 100 and 200 Areas of the 1450-km 2 Hanford Site. The Hanford Site is a semiarid tract of land in southeastern Washington State. The nearest population center is Richland, Washington, (population 32,000) 30 km southeast of the 200 Area. This cost-comparison evaluation (1) determines relative costs for reducing risk to acceptable levels; (2) compares the cost of reducing risk using different risk-reduction options; and (3) compares the cost of reducing risks at different facilities. The result is an identification of the cost effective risk-reduction measures. Supporting information required to develop costs of the various risk-reduction options also is included

Model linear absolute and relative risk estimates for cancer induced by ionizing radiation in Mexican cohort of occupationally exposed

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alvarez, R.J.T.; Trovar, M.V.M; González, J.F.

2015-01-01

From the rate of natural mortality m s cancer (t) for every 100 thousand habitants, modeled by a fourth-degree polynomial function of the age data of the Mexican population (2008), and assuming: a) a relationship 1: 5 of cancer induced radiation respect to presented spontaneously, b) a size of initial cohort No = 100 k SOPs, c) a speed of H E = (2 ± 1) mSv / received by the SOPs from 18 to 65 years, d) a latency of 8 years for cancer induction after irradiation, e) a time tracking cohort to 75 years, f) and taking the coefficients absolute and relative risk BEIRs induction of cancer models II and VII (excluding leukemia); It determined: BEIR II for a total of 125 and 400 deaths from cancer for absolute and relative linear models respectively. For BEIR VII has a number of fatal cases of 345 and 927 deaths respectively for absolute and relative linear model cancer. [es

Children capacity in disaster risk reduction: A call for action

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leila Mohammadinia

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Disasters have various physical, psychological, social and economical effects on all age group, particularly children who are more vulnerable than adults. In the aftermath of disasters, children like pregnant women, elderly and handicaps are special group with special needs. This is because they are at greater risk based on their specific physiological and psychological characteristics. Moreover,, according to the Sendai document, children need more attention in Disaster Risk Reduction (DRRprograms design, policies implementation with a proactive approach in Disaster Risk Reduction (1. In the Sendai document it is emphasized that policies regarding disaster risk reduction, cognition and risk perception about the risk property should be considered based upon the hazards and the environment in terms of vulnerability, capacity and exposure (2.Hyogo framework for action was also already have been focused on child priority on the legislation program (3. Accordingly, it is necessary to involve children in disaster risk reduction programs actively in order to overcome their needs and their problems (4. As children are more affected groups in various aspects of disasters in most countries, their potential utilization, the conditions and space should be provided based on laws, national policies, training and capacity. Although after disaster children required particular needs and attention(5-6, they should be considered as an active group who could participate in DRR program and help their family and also the community.(4, 7 Some evidences suggest on value of children team working for community preparedness. Iran had a successful experience for using adolescence capacity as a pillar in activation of early warning; including notification announced while observing the rising sea levels for local community in order to reduce the risk of flood disaster at a local area in the North of Iran. According to the Hyogo and the Sendai documents, it seems that using

Absolute cardiovascular risk in a Fiji medical zone.

Science.gov (United States)

Gyaneshwar, Rajat; Naidu, Swaran; Raban, Magdalena Z; Naidu, Sheetal; Linhart, Christine; Morrell, Stephen; Tukana, Isimeli; Taylor, Richard

2016-02-09

The population of Fiji has experienced emergence of non-communicable disease (NCD) and a plateau in life expectancy over the past 20 years. A mini-STEPS survey (n = 2765) was conducted in Viseisei in Western Fiji to assess NCD risk factors (RFs) in i-Taukei (Melanesians) and those of Indian descent aged 25-64 years (response 73 %). Hypertension (HT) was defined as systolic blood pressure (BP) ≥140 mmHg or diastolic BP ≥90 mmHg or on medication for HT; type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) as fasting plasma glucose ≥7.0 mmol/L or on medication for T2DM; and obesity as a body mass index (kilograms/height(metres)(2)) ≥30. Data were age-adjusted to 2007 Fiji Census. Associations between RFs and ethnicity/education were investigated. Comparisons with Fiji STEPS surveys were undertaken, and the absolute risk of a cardiovascular disease (CVD) event/death in 10 years was estimated from multiple RF charts. NCD/RFs increased with age except excessive alcohol intake and daily smoking (women) which declined. Daily smoking was higher in men 33 % (95 % confidence interval: 31-36) than women 14 % (12-116); women were more obese 40 % (37-43) than men 23 % (20-26); HT was similar in men 37 % (34-40) and women 34 % (31-36), as was T2DM in men 15 % (13-17) and women 17 % (15-19). i-Taukei men had an odds ratio (OR) of 0.41 (0.28-0.58) for T2DM compared to Indians (1.00); and i-Taukei (both sexes) had a higher OR for obesity and low fruit/vegetable intake, daily smoking, excessive alcohol intake and HT in females. Increasing education correlated with lesser smoking, but with higher obesity and lower fruit/vegetable intake. Compared to the 2011 Fiji STEPS survey, no significant differences were evident in obesity, HT or T2DM prevalences. The proportion (40-64 years) classified at high or very high risk (≥20 %) of a CVD event/death (over 10 years) based on multiple RFs was 8.3 % for men (8.1 % i-Taukei, 8.5 % Indian), and 6.7 % for women (7.9 % i-Taukei, 6.0 % Indian). The results

Incentivising flood risk adaptation through risk based insurance premiums : Trade-offs between affordability and risk reduction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hudson, Paul F.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Feyen, L.; Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H.

2016-01-01

The financial incentives offered by the risk-based pricing of insurance can stimulate policyholder adaptation to flood risk while potentially conflicting with affordability. We examine the trade-off between risk reduction and affordability in a model of public-private flood insurance in France and

National cohort study of absolute risk and age-specific incidence of multiple adverse outcomes between adolescence and early middle age.

Science.gov (United States)

Mok, Pearl L H; Antonsen, Sussie; Pedersen, Carsten Bøcker; Appleby, Louis; Shaw, Jenny; Webb, Roger T

2015-09-19

Psychiatric illness, substance misuse, suicidality, criminality and premature death represent major public health challenges that afflict a sizeable proportion of young people. However, studies of multiple adverse outcomes in the same cohort at risk are rare. In a national Danish cohort we estimated sex- and age-specific incidence rates and absolute risks of these outcomes between adolescence and early middle age. Using interlinked registers, persons born in Denmark 1966-1996 were followed from their 15(th) until 40(th) birthday or December 2011 (N = 2,070,904). We estimated sex- and age-specific incidence rates of nine adverse outcomes, in three main categories: Premature mortality (all-causes, suicide, accident); Psychiatric morbidity (any mental illness diagnosis, suicide attempt, alcohol or drug misuse disorder); Criminality (violent offending, receiving custodial sentence, driving under influence of alcohol or drugs). Cumulative incidences were also calculated using competing risk survival analyses. For cohort members alive on their 15(th) birthday, the absolute risks of dying by age 40 were 1.99 % for males [95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.95-2.03 %] and 0.85 % for females (95 % CI 0.83-0.88 %). The risks of substance misuse and criminality were also much higher for males, especially younger males, than for females. Specifically, the risk of a first conviction for a violent offence was highest amongst males aged below 20. Females, however, were more likely than males to have a hospital-treated psychiatric disorder. By age 40, 13.25 % of females (95 % CI 13.16-13.33 %) and 9.98 % of males (95 % CI 9.91-10.06 %) had been treated. Women aged below 25 were also more likely than men to first attempt suicide, but this pattern was reversed beyond this age. The greatest gender differentials in incidence rates were in criminality outcomes. This is the first comprehensive assessment of the incidence rates and absolute risks of these multiple adverse outcomes

Risk avoidance versus risk reduction: a framework and segmentation profile for understanding adolescent sexual activity.

Science.gov (United States)

Hopkins, Christopher D; Tanner, John F; Raymond, Mary Anne

2004-01-01

The teen birthrate in the United States is twice that of other industrialized nations. Adolescents in the U.S. are among high-risk groups for HIV/AIDS and other sexually transmitted diseases. As a result, the Department of Health and Human Services changed its policy on the promotion of abstinence to teenagers from a focus on a risk reduction strategy to a focus on a risk avoidance strategy. In order to create more effective risk avoidance as well as risk reduction campaigns, this study proposes a framework to illustrate the distinction that teens make between spontaneous sexual activity and planned sexual activity, as well as those teens that make a commitment to abstinence versus abstinence by default. Furthermore, this study classifies teens into three behavior segments (abstemious, promiscuous and monogamous) and then assesses specific differences that exist within these groups relative to their attitudes and perceptions concerning abstinence, sexual activity, contraception, fear and norms. This change in focus from a risk reduction to a risk avoidance strategy has important implications for social marketing, public policy and marketing theory.

Directly relating gas-phase cluster measurements to solution-phase hydrolysis, the absolute standard hydrogen electrode potential, and the absolute proton solvation energy.

Science.gov (United States)

Donald, William A; Leib, Ryan D; O'Brien, Jeremy T; Williams, Evan R

2009-06-08

Solution-phase, half-cell potentials are measured relative to other half-cell potentials, resulting in a thermochemical ladder that is anchored to the standard hydrogen electrode (SHE), which is assigned an arbitrary value of 0 V. A new method for measuring the absolute SHE potential is demonstrated in which gaseous nanodrops containing divalent alkaline-earth or transition-metal ions are reduced by thermally generated electrons. Energies for the reactions 1) M(H(2)O)(24)(2+)(g) + e(-)(g)-->M(H(2)O)(24)(+)(g) and 2) M(H(2)O)(24)(2+)(g) + e(-)(g)-->MOH(H(2)O)(23)(+)(g) + H(g) and the hydrogen atom affinities of MOH(H(2)O)(23)(+)(g) are obtained from the number of water molecules lost through each pathway. From these measurements on clusters containing nine different metal ions and known thermochemical values that include solution hydrolysis energies, an average absolute SHE potential of +4.29 V vs. e(-)(g) (standard deviation of 0.02 V) and a real proton solvation free energy of -265 kcal mol(-1) are obtained. With this method, the absolute SHE potential can be obtained from a one-electron reduction of nanodrops containing divalent ions that are not observed to undergo one-electron reduction in aqueous solution.

Climate change, uncertainty and investment in flood risk reduction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pol, van der T.D.

2015-01-01

Economic analysis of flood risk management strategies has become more complex due to climate change. This thesis investigates the impact of climate change on investment in flood risk reduction, and applies optimisation methods to support identification of optimal flood risk management strategies.

Performance of models for estimating absolute risk difference in multicenter trials with binary outcome

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Claudia Pedroza

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Reporting of absolute risk difference (RD is recommended for clinical and epidemiological prospective studies. In analyses of multicenter studies, adjustment for center is necessary when randomization is stratified by center or when there is large variation in patients outcomes across centers. While regression methods are used to estimate RD adjusted for baseline predictors and clustering, no formal evaluation of their performance has been previously conducted. Methods We performed a simulation study to evaluate 6 regression methods fitted under a generalized estimating equation framework: binomial identity, Poisson identity, Normal identity, log binomial, log Poisson, and logistic regression model. We compared the model estimates to unadjusted estimates. We varied the true response function (identity or log, number of subjects per center, true risk difference, control outcome rate, effect of baseline predictor, and intracenter correlation. We compared the models in terms of convergence, absolute bias and coverage of 95 % confidence intervals for RD. Results The 6 models performed very similar to each other for the majority of scenarios. However, the log binomial model did not converge for a large portion of the scenarios including a baseline predictor. In scenarios with outcome rate close to the parameter boundary, the binomial and Poisson identity models had the best performance, but differences from other models were negligible. The unadjusted method introduced little bias to the RD estimates, but its coverage was larger than the nominal value in some scenarios with an identity response. Under the log response, coverage from the unadjusted method was well below the nominal value (<80 % for some scenarios. Conclusions We recommend the use of a binomial or Poisson GEE model with identity link to estimate RD for correlated binary outcome data. If these models fail to run, then either a logistic regression, log Poisson

Reflections from the interface between seismological research and earthquake risk reduction

Science.gov (United States)

Sargeant, S.

2012-04-01

Scientific understanding of earthquakes and their attendant hazards is vital for the development of effective earthquake risk reduction strategies. Within the global disaster reduction policy framework (the Hyogo Framework for Action, overseen by the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction), the anticipated role of science and scientists is clear, with respect to risk assessment, loss estimation, space-based observation, early warning and forecasting. The importance of information sharing and cooperation, cross-disciplinary networks and developing technical and institutional capacity for effective disaster management is also highlighted. In practice, the degree to which seismological information is successfully delivered to and applied by individuals, groups or organisations working to manage or reduce the risk from earthquakes is variable. The challenge for scientists is to provide fit-for-purpose information that can be integrated simply into decision-making and risk reduction activities at all levels of governance and at different geographic scales, often by a non-technical audience (i.e. people without any seismological/earthquake engineering training). The interface between seismological research and earthquake risk reduction (defined here in terms of both the relationship between the science and its application, and the scientist and other risk stakeholders) is complex. This complexity is a function of a range issues that arise relating to communication, multidisciplinary working, politics, organisational practices, inter-organisational collaboration, working practices, sectoral cultures, individual and organisational values, worldviews and expectations. These factors can present significant obstacles to scientific information being incorporated into the decision-making process. The purpose of this paper is to present some personal reflections on the nature of the interface between the worlds of seismological research and risk reduction, and the

Software for Probabilistic Risk Reduction

Science.gov (United States)

Hensley, Scott; Michel, Thierry; Madsen, Soren; Chapin, Elaine; Rodriguez, Ernesto

2004-01-01

A computer program implements a methodology, denoted probabilistic risk reduction, that is intended to aid in planning the development of complex software and/or hardware systems. This methodology integrates two complementary prior methodologies: (1) that of probabilistic risk assessment and (2) a risk-based planning methodology, implemented in a prior computer program known as Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP), in which multiple requirements and the beneficial effects of risk-mitigation actions are taken into account. The present methodology and the software are able to accommodate both process knowledge (notably of the efficacy of development practices) and product knowledge (notably of the logical structure of a system, the development of which one seeks to plan). Estimates of the costs and benefits of a planned development can be derived. Functional and non-functional aspects of software can be taken into account, and trades made among them. It becomes possible to optimize the planning process in the sense that it becomes possible to select the best suite of process steps and design choices to maximize the expectation of success while remaining within budget.

Workplace injuries and risk reduction practices in Malaysia.

Science.gov (United States)

Ali, Roslinah; Shaharudin, Rafiza; Omar, Azahadi; Yusoff, Fadhli

2012-01-01

This study on workplace injuries and risk reduction practices was part of the Malaysia National Health Morbidity Survey III (NHMS III) conducted in 2006. This cross-sectional population-based survey was conducted to determine the incidence of workplaces injuries and assess the magnitude of some important risk reduction practices among workers. Data were gathered through face-to-face household interviews using a pre-coded questionnaire. Of the 22 880 eligible respondents, 88·2% (20 180) responded. The incidence rate for injuries at the workplace was 4·9 per 100 (95% CI: 4·6-5·2). The overall proportion of workers who had received occupational safety and health (OSH) training before or within 1 month of starting work was 33·6%. Among respondents who perceived that personal protective equipment (PPE) was required at their workplace, only 38·9% (95% CI: 37·8-39·4) were provided with it by their employers. Further studies are urgently needed to identify reasons for and management of the low uptake of risk reduction practices. This issue needs to be addressed to ensure the safety and health of our working population.

Evaluating a Health Risk Reduction Program.

Science.gov (United States)

Nagelberg, Daniel B.

1981-01-01

A health risk reduction program at Bowling Green State University (Ohio) tested the efficacy of peer education against the efficacy of returning (by mail) health questionnaire results. A peer health education program did not appear to be effective in changing student attitudes or lifestyles; however, the research methodology may not have been…

Risk management study for the Hanford Site facilities: Risk reduction cost comparison for the retired Hanford Site facilities. Volume 4

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coles, G.A.; Egge, R.G.; Senger, E.; Shultz, M.W.; Taylor, W.E.

1994-02-01

This document provides a cost-comparison evaluation for implementing certain risk-reduction measures and their effect on the overall risk of the 100 and 200 Area retired, surplus facilities. The evaluation is based on conditions that existed at the time the risk evaluation team performed facility investigations, and does not acknowledge risk-reduction measures that occurred soon after risk identification. This evaluation is one part of an overall risk management study for these facilities. The retired facilities investigated for this evaluation are located in the 100 and 200 Areas of the 1450-km{sup 2} Hanford Site. The Hanford Site is a semiarid tract of land in southeastern Washington State. The nearest population center is Richland, Washington, (population 32,000) 30 km southeast of the 200 Area. This cost-comparison evaluation (1) determines relative costs for reducing risk to acceptable levels; (2) compares the cost of reducing risk using different risk-reduction options; and (3) compares the cost of reducing risks at different facilities. The result is an identification of the cost effective risk-reduction measures. Supporting information required to develop costs of the various risk-reduction options also is included.

Disaster risk reduction capacity assessment for precarious settlements in Guatemala City.

Science.gov (United States)

Miles, Scott B; Green, Rebekah A; Svekla, Walter

2012-07-01

This study presents findings of an institutional capacity analysis of urban disaster risk reduction for informal settlements in the Guatemala Metropolitan Region. It uses a resource access perspective of vulnerability, actor-network theory, and qualitative data collection. The analysis reveals that there is interest in disaster risk reduction for the informal settlements; however, there is little in the way of direct financial or oversight relationships between informal settlement residents and all other actors. Respondents observed that informal settlements would probably remain inhabited; thus, there is a need for disaster risk reduction within these settlements. Disaster risk reduction capacity for informal settlements exists and can be further leveraged, as long as steps are taken to ensure appropriate access to and control of resources and oversight. Further, the nascent institutional arrangements should be strengthened through increased communication and coordination between actors, a decentralization of oversight and financial relationships, and mediation of identified resource conflicts. © 2012 The Author(s). Journal compilation © Overseas Development Institute, 2012.

The absolute risk of venous thrombosis after air travel: a cohort study of 8,755 employees of international organisations.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saskia Kuipers

2007-09-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The risk of venous thrombosis is approximately 2- to 4-fold increased after air travel, but the absolute risk is unknown. The objective of this study was to assess the absolute risk of venous thrombosis after air travel. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a cohort study among employees of large international companies and organisations, who were followed between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2005. The occurrence of symptomatic venous thrombosis was linked to exposure to air travel, as assessed by travel records provided by the companies and organisations. A long-haul flight was defined as a flight of at least 4 h and participants were considered exposed for a postflight period of 8 wk. A total of 8,755 employees were followed during a total follow-up time of 38,910 person-years (PY. The total time employees were exposed to a long-haul flight was 6,872 PY. In the follow-up period, 53 thromboses occurred, 22 of which within 8 wk of a long-haul flight, yielding an incidence rate of 3.2/1,000 PY, as compared to 1.0/1,000 PY in individuals not exposed to air travel (incidence rate ratio 3.2, 95% confidence interval 1.8-5.6. This rate was equivalent to a risk of one event per 4,656 long-haul flights. The risk increased with exposure to more flights within a short time frame and with increasing duration of flights. The incidence was highest in the first 2 wk after travel and gradually decreased to baseline after 8 wk. The risk was particularly high in employees under age 30 y, women who used oral contraceptives, and individuals who were particularly short, tall, or overweight. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of symptomatic venous thrombosis after air travel is moderately increased on average, and rises with increasing exposure and in high-risk groups.

Measuring the Value of Mortality Risk Reductions in Turkey

Science.gov (United States)

Tekeşin, Cem; Ara, Shihomi

2014-01-01

The willingness to pay (WTP) for mortality risk reduction from four causes (lung cancer, other type of cancer, respiratory disease, traffic accident) are estimated using random parameter logit model with data from choice experiment for three regions in Turkey. The value of statistical life (VSL) estimated for Afsin-Elbistan, Kutahya-Tavsanli, Ankara and the pooled case are found as 0.56, 0.35, 0.46 and 0.49 million Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) adjusted 2012 US dollars (USD). Different types of risk cause different VSL estimates and we found the lung cancer premium of 213% against traffic accident. The effects of one-year-delayed provision of risk-reduction service are the reduction of WTP by 482 TL ($318 in PPP adjusted USD) per person on average, and the disutility from status-quo (zero risk reduction) against alternative is found to be 891 TL ($589 in PPP adjusted USD) per person on average. Senior discounts of VSL are partially determined by status-quo preference and the amount of discount decreases once the status-quo bias is removed. The peak VSL is found to be for the age group 30–39 and the average VSL for the age group is 0.8 million PPP adjusted USD). Turkey’s compliance to European Union (EU) air quality standard will cause welfare gains of total 373 million PPP adjusted USD for our study areas in terms of reduced number of premature mortality. PMID:25000150

Measuring the Value of Mortality Risk Reductions in Turkey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cem Tekeşin

2014-07-01

Full Text Available The willingness to pay (WTP for mortality risk reduction from four causes (lung cancer, other type of cancer, respiratory disease, traffic accident are estimated using random parameter logit model with data from choice experiment for three regions in Turkey. The value of statistical life (VSL estimated for Afsin-Elbistan, Kutahya-Tavsanli, Ankara and the pooled case are found as 0.56, 0.35, 0.46 and 0.49 million Purchasing Power Parity (PPP adjusted 2012 US dollars (USD. Different types of risk cause different VSL estimates and we found the lung cancer premium of 213% against traffic accident. The effects of one-year-delayed provision of risk-reduction service are the reduction of WTP by 482 TL ($318 in PPP adjusted USD per person on average, and the disutility from status-quo (zero risk reduction against alternative is found to be 891 TL ($589 in PPP adjusted USD per person on average. Senior discounts of VSL are partially determined by status-quo preference and the amount of discount decreases once the status-quo bias is removed. The peak VSL is found to be for the age group 30–39 and the average VSL for the age group is 0.8 million PPP adjusted USD. Turkey’s compliance to European Union (EU air quality standard will cause welfare gains of total 373 million PPP adjusted USD for our study areas in terms of reduced number of premature mortality.

Evaluating the risk-reduction benefits of wind energy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brower, M.C. [Brower & Company, Andover, MA (United States); Bell, K. [Convergence Research, Seattle, WA (United States); Bernow, S.; Duckworth, M. [Tellus Inst., Boston, MA (United States); Spinney P. [Charles River Associates, Boston, MA (United States)

1996-12-31

This paper presents preliminary results of a study to evaluate the risk-reduction benefits of wind power for a case study utility system using decision analysis techniques. The costs and risks of two alternative decisions-whether to build a 400 MW gas-fired combined cycle plant or a 1600 MW wind plant in 2003-were compared through computer simulations as fuel prices, environmental regulatory costs, wind and conventional power plant availability, and load growth were allowed to vary. Three different market scenarios were examined: traditional regulation, a short-term power pool, and fixed-price contracts of varying duration. The study concludes that, from the perspective of ratepayers, wind energy provides a net levelized risk-reduction benefit of $3.4 to $7.8/MWh under traditional regulation, and less in the other scenarios. From the perspective of the utility plant owners, wind provides a significant risk benefit in the unregulated market scenarios but none in a regulated market. The methodology and findings should help inform utility resource planning and industry restructuring efforts. 2 figs., 3 tabs.

Communicating clinical trial outcomes: Effects of presentation method on physicians' evaluations of new treatments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Francesco Marcatto

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Physicians expect a treatment to be more effective when its clinical outcomes are described as relative rather than as absolute risk reductions. We examined whether effects of presentation method (relative vs. absolute risk reduction remain when physicians are provided the baseline risk information, a vital piece of statistical information omitted in previous studies. Using a between-subjects design, ninety five physicians were presented the risk reduction associated with a fictitious treatment for hypertension either as an absolute risk reduction or as a relative risk reduction, with or without including baseline risk information. Physicians reported that the treatment would be more effective and that they would be more willing to prescribe it when its risk reduction was presented to them in relative rather than in absolute terms. The relative risk reduction was perceived as more effective than absolute risk reduction even when the baseline risk information was explicitly reported. We recommend that information about absolute risk reduction be made available to physicians in the reporting of clinical outcomes. Moreover, health professionals should be cognizant of the potential biasing effects of risk information presented in relative risk terms.

Breast and Ovarian Cancer Risk and Risk Reduction in Jewish BRCA1/2 Mutation Carriers

Science.gov (United States)

Finkelman, Brian S.; Rubinstein, Wendy S.; Friedman, Sue; Friebel, Tara M.; Dubitsky, Shera; Schonberger, Niecee Singer; Shoretz, Rochelle; Singer, Christian F.; Blum, Joanne L.; Tung, Nadine; Olopade, Olufunmilayo I.; Weitzel, Jeffrey N.; Lynch, Henry T.; Snyder, Carrie; Garber, Judy E.; Schildkraut, Joellen; Daly, Mary B.; Isaacs, Claudine; Pichert, Gabrielle; Neuhausen, Susan L.; Couch, Fergus J.; van't Veer, Laura; Eeles, Rosalind; Bancroft, Elizabeth; Evans, D. Gareth; Ganz, Patricia A.; Tomlinson, Gail E.; Narod, Steven A.; Matloff, Ellen; Domchek, Susan; Rebbeck, Timothy R.

2012-01-01

Purpose Mutations in BRCA1/2 dramatically increase the risk of both breast and ovarian cancers. Three mutations in these genes (185delAG, 5382insC, and 6174delT) occur at high frequency in Ashkenazi Jews. We evaluated how these common Jewish mutations (CJMs) affect cancer risks and risk reduction. Methods Our cohort comprised 4,649 women with disease-associated BRCA1/2 mutations from 22 centers in the Prevention and Observation of Surgical End Points Consortium. Of these women, 969 were self-identified Jewish women. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate breast and ovarian cancer risks, as well as risk reduction from risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO), by CJM and self-identified Jewish status. Results Ninety-one percent of Jewish BRCA1/2-positive women carried a CJM. Jewish women were significantly more likely to undergo RRSO than non-Jewish women (54% v 41%, respectively; odds ratio, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.44 to 2.42). Relative risks of cancer varied by CJM, with the relative risk of breast cancer being significantly lower in 6174delT mutation carriers than in non-CJM BRCA2 carriers (hazard ratio, 0.35; 95% CI, 0.18 to 0.69). No significant difference was seen in cancer risk reduction after RRSO among subgroups. Conclusion Consistent with previous results, risks for breast and ovarian cancer varied by CJM in BRCA1/2 carriers. In particular, 6174delT carriers had a lower risk of breast cancer. This finding requires additional confirmation in larger prospective and population-based cohort studies before being integrated into clinical care. PMID:22430266

[Smoking fewer cigarettes per day may determine a significant risk reduction in developing smoking attributable diseases? Is there a risk reduction for e-cigarette users?].

Science.gov (United States)

Pieri, Luca; Chellini, Elisabetta; Gorini, Giuseppe

2014-01-01

Among Italian smokers--about 10 millions in 2013--about 600,000 began using electronic cigarettes (e-cigs) in last years. About 10% of e-cig users quitted smoking tobacco, whereas the 90% was dual users. Among them, about three out of four decreased the number of cigarettes smoked per day (cig/day), but did not quit. How many fewer cigarettes a smoker has to smoke to obtain significant health benefits? Is there a threshold? In order to observe a significant 27% reduction in the risk of developing lung cancer, a smoker must reduce the number of cig/day by at least 50%, while for the other smoking-related diseases (acute myocardial infarction - AMI, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases), halving the number of cig/day did not drive to a significant risk reduction. Even smoking 5 cig/day increases the risk of AMI, whereas it significantly lowers the risk of lung cancer. Obviously, quitting smoking is the best choice to highly reduce risks for all smoking-related diseases. Therefore, in order to achieve significant risk reductions, e-cig users should quit smoking as first choice, or, if they feel it is impossible to them, reduce the consumption of traditional cigarettes to less than 5 cig/day.

Falls in Scottish homicide: lessons for homicide reduction in mental health patients

Science.gov (United States)

Crichton, John H. M.

2017-01-01

The sustained fall in Scottish homicide rates follows crime reduction measures informed by the epidemiology of suicide. The violence reduction unit targeted young men carrying knives in public. The restriction of weapons immediately to hand appears to have caused an absolute fall in homicide just as suicide reduction was observed following changes to domestic gas supply. Further homicide reduction may be accomplished in the domestic setting with targeted changes in kitchen knife design in home safety planning for high-risk households. Most commonly homicides involving those in recent contact with mental health services in the UK have domestic characteristics and similar safety planning may be targeted at those with mental disorder and a history of violence. PMID:28811910

Climate change, uncertainty and investment in flood risk reduction

OpenAIRE

Pol, van der, T.D.

2015-01-01

Economic analysis of flood risk management strategies has become more complex due to climate change. This thesis investigates the impact of climate change on investment in flood risk reduction, and applies optimisation methods to support identification of optimal flood risk management strategies. Chapter 2 provides an overview of cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of flood risk management strategies under climate change uncertainty and new information. CBA is applied to determine optimal dike height...

Long-Term International Space Station (ISS) Risk Reduction Activities

Science.gov (United States)

Fodroci, M. P.; Gafka, G. K.; Lutomski, M. G.; Maher, J. S.

2012-01-01

As the assembly of the ISS nears completion, it is worthwhile to step back and review some of the actions pursued by the Program in recent years to reduce risk and enhance the safety and health of ISS crewmembers, visitors, and space flight participants. While the initial ISS requirements and design were intended to provide the best practicable levels of safety, it is always possible to further reduce risk - given the determination, commitment, and resources to do so. The following is a summary of some of the steps taken by the ISS Program Manager, by our International Partners, by hardware and software designers, by operational specialists, and by safety personnel to continuously enhance the safety of the ISS, and to reduce risk to all crewmembers. While years of work went into the development of ISS requirements, there are many things associated with risk reduction in a Program like the ISS that can only be learned through actual operational experience. These risk reduction activities can be divided into roughly three categories: Areas that were initially noncompliant which have subsequently been brought into compliance or near compliance (i.e., Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris [MMOD] protection, acoustics) Areas where initial design requirements were eventually considered inadequate and were subsequently augmented (i.e., Toxicity Hazard Level- 4 [THL] materials, emergency procedures, emergency equipment, control of drag-throughs) Areas where risks were initially underestimated, and have subsequently been addressed through additional mitigation (i.e., Extravehicular Activity [EVA] sharp edges, plasma shock hazards) Due to the hard work and cooperation of many parties working together across the span of more than a decade, the ISS is now a safer and healthier environment for our crew, in many cases exceeding the risk reduction targets inherent in the intent of the original design. It will provide a safe and stable platform for utilization and discovery for years

Household flood risk reduction in the Czech Republic

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Duží, B.; Vikhrov, Dmytro; Kelman, I.; Stojanov, R.; Jakubínský, J.

2015-01-01

Roč. 20, č. 4 (2015), s. 499-504 ISSN 1381-2386 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : flood risk reduction * household adaptation * Czech Republic Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 3.085, year: 2015

Eighteenth annual risk reduction engineering laboratory research symposium

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1992-01-01

The Eighteenth Annual Risk Reduction Engineering Laboratory Research Symposium was held in Cincinnati, Ohio, April 14-16, 1992. The purpose of this Symposium was to present the latest significant research findings from ongoing and recently completed projects funded by the Risk Reduction Engineering Laboratory (RREL). These Proceedings are organized into two sections. Sessions A and B, which contain extended abstracts of the paper presentations. A list of poster displays is also included. Subjects include remedial action, treatment, and control technologies for waste disposal, landfill liner and cover systems, underground storage tanks, and demonstration and development of innovative/alternative treatment technologies for hazardous waste. Alternative technology subjects include thermal destruction of hazardous wastes, field evaluations, existing treatment options, emerging treatment processes, waste minimization, and biosystems for hazardous waste destruction

Encasing the Absolutes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Uroš Martinčič

2014-05-01

Full Text Available The paper explores the issue of structure and case in English absolute constructions, whose subjects are deduced by several descriptive grammars as being in the nominative case due to its supposed neutrality in terms of register. This deduction is countered by systematic accounts presented within the framework of the Minimalist Program which relate the case of absolute constructions to specific grammatical factors. Each proposal is shown as an attempt of analysing absolute constructions as basic predication structures, either full clauses or small clauses. I argue in favour of the small clause approach due to its minimal reliance on transformations and unique stipulations. Furthermore, I propose that small clauses project a singular category, and show that the use of two cases in English absolute constructions can be accounted for if they are analysed as depictive phrases, possibly selected by prepositions. The case of the subject in absolutes is shown to be a result of syntactic and non-syntactic factors. I thus argue in accordance with Minimalist goals that syntactic case does not exist, attributing its role in absolutes to other mechanisms.

Household flood risk reduction in the Czech Republic

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Duží, B.; Vikhrov, Dmytro; Kelman, I.; Stojanov, R.; Jakubínský, J.

2015-01-01

Roč. 20, č. 4 (2015), s. 499-504 ISSN 1381-2386 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : flood risk reduction * household adaptation * Czech Republic Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 3.085, year: 2015

Failure detection system risk reduction assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Aguilar, Robert B. (Inventor); Huang, Zhaofeng (Inventor)

2012-01-01

A process includes determining a probability of a failure mode of a system being analyzed reaching a failure limit as a function of time to failure limit, determining a probability of a mitigation of the failure mode as a function of a time to failure limit, and quantifying a risk reduction based on the probability of the failure mode reaching the failure limit and the probability of the mitigation.

Microenterprise development interventions for sexual risk reduction: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Cui, Rosa R; Lee, Ramon; Thirumurthy, Harsha; Muessig, Kathryn E; Tucker, Joseph D

2013-11-01

Comprehensive interventions that address both individual and structural determinants associated with HIV/STI risk are gaining increasing attention over the past decade. Microenterprise development offers an appealing model for HIV prevention by addressing poverty and gender equality. This study systematically reviewed the effects of microenterprise development interventions on HIV/STI incidence and sexual risk behaviors. Microenterprise development was defined as developing small business capacity among individuals to alleviate poverty. Seven eligible research studies representing five interventions were identified and included in this review. All of the studies targeted women, and three focused on sex workers. None measured biomarker outcomes. All three sex worker studies showed significant reduction in sexual risk behaviors when compared to the control group. Non-sex worker studies showed limited changes in sexual risk behavior. This review indicates the potential utility of microenterprise development in HIV risk reduction programs. More research is needed to determine how microenterprise development can be effectively incorporated in comprehensive HIV control strategies.

Absolute advantage

NARCIS (Netherlands)

J.G.M. van Marrewijk (Charles)

2008-01-01

textabstractA country is said to have an absolute advantage over another country in the production of a good or service if it can produce that good or service using fewer real resources. Equivalently, using the same inputs, the country can produce more output. The concept of absolute advantage can

Incentivising flood risk adaptation through ris based insurance premiums: trade-offs between affordability and risk reduction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hudson, P.G.M.B.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Feyen, L.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

2016-01-01

The financial incentives offered by the risk-based pricing of insurance can stimulate policyholder adaptation to flood risk while potentially conflicting with affordability. We examine the trade-off between risk reduction and affordability in a model of public-private flood insurance in France and

Estimating the Value of Price Risk Reduction in Energy Efficiency Investments in Buildings

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pekka Tuominen

2017-10-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a method for calculating the value of price risk reduction to a consumer that can be achieved with investments in energy efficiency. The value of price risk reduction is discussed to some length in general terms in the literature reviewed but, so far, no methodology for calculating the value has been presented. Here we suggest such a method. The problem of valuating price risk reduction is approached using a variation of the Black–Scholes model by considering a hypothetical financial instrument that a consumer would purchase to insure herself against unexpected price hikes. This hypothetical instrument is then compared with an actual energy efficiency investment that reaches the same level of price risk reduction. To demonstrate the usability of the method, case examples are calculated for typical single-family houses in Finland. The results show that the price risk entailed in household energy consumption can be reduced by a meaningful amount with energy efficiency investments, and that the monetary value of this reduction can be calculated. It is argued that this often-overlooked benefit of energy efficiency investments merits more consideration in future studies.

Farmers Prone to Drought Risk: Why Some Farmers Undertake Farm-Level Risk-Reduction Measures While Others Not?

Science.gov (United States)

Gebrehiwot, Tagel; van der Veen, Anne

2015-03-01

This research investigates farmers' cognitive perceptions of risk and the behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. It has been observed that people who are susceptible to natural hazards often fail to act, or do very little, to protect their assets or lives. To answer the question of why some people show adaptive behavior while others do not, a socio-psychological model of precautionary adaptation based on protection motivation theory and trans-theoretical stage model has been applied for the first time to areas of drought risk in the developing countries cultural context. The applicability of the integrated model is explored by means of a representative sample survey of smallholder farmers in northern Ethiopia. The result of the study showed that there is a statistically significant association between farmer's behavioral intention to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures and the main important protection motivation model variables. High perceived vulnerability, severity of consequences, self-efficacy, and response efficacy lead to higher levels of behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. For farmers in the action stage, self-efficacy and response efficacy were the main motivators of behavioral intention. For farmers in the contemplative stage, self-efficacy and cost appear to be the main motivators for them to act upon risk reduction, while perceived severity of consequences and cost of response actions were found to be important for farmers in the pre-contemplative stage.

Investigating obesity risk-reduction behaviours and psychosocial factors in Chinese Americans.

Science.gov (United States)

Liou, Doreen; Bauer, Kathleen; Bai, Yeon

2014-11-01

The purpose of this research was to examine the attitudes, beliefs and behaviours related to obesity risk reduction in Chinese Americans. A questionnaire was administered to a convenience sample of 300 US-born and foreign-born Chinese Americans residing in the New York metropolitan area, ranging from 18 to 40 years of age. Obesity risk reduction behaviours and psychosocial variables derived from the Theory of Planned Behaviour and Health Belief Model were measured. Acculturation was assessed using a modified Suinn-Lew Asian Self-Identity Acculturation Scale. Frequency distributions were delineated and stepwise regression analyses were analysed for different acculturation groups. 65% of the respondents were female and the mean age of the sample was 26 years. Respondents indicated the most commonly practised behaviour to be eating home-cooked meals instead of restaurant-prepared foods. Perceived barriers to adopting obesity risk-reduction behaviours included convenience of consuming fast foods, cost, lack of time to prepare home-cooked meals, and the physical environment of unhealthy foods. In predicting intention to perform obesity risk-reduction behaviours, attitude was significant for 'western-identified' individuals. In 'Asian-identified' individuals, perceived behavioural control, self-efficacy and perceived benefits were salient. Nutrition educators working with Chinese Americans need to address self-efficacy in preparing plant-based, home-cooked meals and making healthy choices at fast-food restaurants with portion control. Concrete and perceived barriers such as lack of time and convenience need to be addressed in nutrition education interventions. Educators need to identify new channels and media outlets to disseminate practical, easy-to-implement behaviours for obesity risk reduction that are socially acceptable. © Royal Society for Public Health 2013.

Pengaruh Brand Credibility Terhadap Information Efficiency Dan Risk Reduction, Serta Dampaknya Atas Repurchase Intention

OpenAIRE

Faisal, Aekram

2015-01-01

This research conducted to know the influence of Brand Credibility to Information efficiency and Risk reduction, also the influence of Information efficiency and Risk reduction to Repurchase intention. This research aimed to know the influence of Brand Credibility to Repurchase intention that mediated by Information efficiency and Risk reduction. The methodology of this research is testing hypothesis research. The sample collecting by questionnaire of 150 respondents from Starb...

Insurance, Public Assistance, and Household Flood Risk Reduction: A Comparative Study of Austria, England, and Romania.

Science.gov (United States)

Hanger, Susanne; Linnerooth-Bayer, Joanne; Surminski, Swenja; Nenciu-Posner, Cristina; Lorant, Anna; Ionescu, Radu; Patt, Anthony

2018-04-01

In light of increasing losses from floods, many researchers and policymakers are looking for ways to encourage flood risk reduction among communities, business, and households. In this study, we investigate risk-reduction behavior at the household level in three European Union Member States with fundamentally different insurance and compensation schemes. We try to understand if and how insurance and public assistance influence private risk-reduction behavior. Data were collected using a telephone survey (n = 1,849) of household decisionmakers in flood-prone areas. We show that insurance overall is positively associated with private risk-reduction behavior. Warranties, premium discounts, and information provision with respect to risk reduction may be an explanation for this positive relationship in the case of structural measures. Public incentives for risk-reduction measures by means of financial and in-kind support, and particularly through the provision of information, are also associated with enhancing risk reduction. In this study, public compensation is not negatively associated with private risk-reduction behavior. This does not disprove such a relationship, but the negative effect may be mitigated by factors related to respondents' capacity to implement measures or social norms that were not included in the analysis. The data suggest that large-scale flood protection infrastructure creates a sense of security that is associated with a lower level of preparedness. Across the board there is ample room to improve both public and private policies to provide effective incentives for household-level risk reduction. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

Low-cost risk reduction strategy for small workplaces: how can we spread good practices?

Science.gov (United States)

Kogi, K

2006-01-01

Recent advances in health risk reduction approaches are examined based on inter-country networking experiences. A noteworthy progress is the wider application of low-cost improvements to risk reduction particularly in small enterprises and agriculture in both industrially developing and developed countries. This is helped by the readiness of managers and workers to implement these improvements despite many constraints. Typical improvements include mobile racks, simple workstation changes, screening hazards, better welfare facilities and teamwork arrangements. In view of the complex circumstances of work-related health risks, it is important to know whether a low-cost strategy can advance risk reduction practices effectively and what support measures are necessary. It is confirmed that the strategy can overcome related constraints through its advantages. Main advantages lie in (a) the facilitation of improved practices in multiple technical areas, (b) the strengthening of realistic stepwise risk reduction, and (c) the enhanced multiplier effects through training of local trainers. Action-oriented risk assessment tools, such as action checklists and low-cost improvement guides, can encourage risk-reducing measures adjusted to each local situation. It is suggested to spread the low-cost risk reduction strategy for improving small workplaces in diversified settings with the support of these locally tailored tools.

Effect of smoking reduction on lung cancer risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Godtfredsen, Nina S; Prescott, Eva; Osler, Merete

2005-01-01

Many smokers are unable or unwilling to completely quit smoking. A proposed means of harm reduction is to reduce the number of cigarettes smoked per day. However, it is not clear whether this strategy decreases the risk for tobacco-related diseases....

Introduction to cost-effectiveness analysis of risk reduction measures in energy systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1986-07-01

The aim of this report is to introduce readers to methods of cost-effectiveness analysis and their application in risk reduction, especially in connection with the energy-producing industries. The background to the assessment of risk and the problems in estimating it quantitatively are outlined. The methodology of cost-effectiveness analysis is then described, particular attention being given to the way in which results are derived and the overall use that can be made of them. This is followed by a discussion of quantitative applications and an outline of the methods that may be used to derive estimates both of risk and the cost of reducing it. The use of cost-effectiveness analysis is illustrated in an appendix, which gives as a worked example a case study on the reduction of public risk associated with radioactive releases during normal operation of a PWR. After drawing some general conclusions the report recommends that such analyses should normally be used as an aid to risk management whenever several alternative risk reduction measures are under consideration

A randomized noninferiority trial of standard versus enhanced risk reduction and adherence counseling for individuals receiving post-exposure prophylaxis following sexual exposures to HIV.

Science.gov (United States)

Roland, Michelle E; Neilands, Torsten B; Krone, Melissa R; Coates, Thomas J; Franses, Karena; Chesney, Margaret A; Kahn, James S; Martin, Jeffrey N

2011-07-01

The National HIV/AIDS Strategy proposes to scale-up post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP). Intensive risk reduction and adherence counseling appear to be effective but are resource intensive. Identifying simpler interventions that maximize the HIV prevention potential of PEP is critical. A randomized noninferiority study comparing 2 (standard) or 5 (enhanced) risk reduction counseling sessions was performed. Adherence counseling was provided in the enhanced arm. We measured changes in unprotected sexual intercourse acts at 12 months, compared with baseline; HIV acquisition; and PEP adherence. Outcomes were stratified by degree of baseline risk. We enrolled 457 individuals reporting unprotected intercourse within 72 h with an HIV-infected or at-risk partner. Participants were 96% male and 71% white. There were 1.8 and 2.3 fewer unprotected sex acts in the standard and enhanced groups. The maximum potential risk difference, reflected by the upper bound of the 95% confidence interval, was 3.9 acts. The difference in the riskier subset may have been as many as 19.6 acts. The incidence of HIV seroconversion was 2.9% and 2.6% among persons randomized to standard and enhanced counseling, respectively, with a maximum potential difference of 3.4%. The absolute and maximal HIV seroconversion incidence was 9.9% and 20.4% greater in the riskier group randomized to standard, compared with enhanced, counseling. Adherence outcomes were similar, with noninferiority in the lower risk group and concerning differences among the higher-risk group. Risk assessment is critical at PEP initiation. Standard counseling is only noninferior for individuals with lower baseline risk; thus, enhanced counseling should be targeted to individuals at higher risk. © The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved.

Assessment of aircraft risk reduction at Pantex Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, Y.T.; Hedtke, R.; Fike, D.; Diniz, J.

1996-01-01

The possibility of an aircraft crashing into the Department of Energy's (DOE) Pantex plant facility has been of concern in risk assessments. In response to public concerns, and in an effort to reduce risks associated with overflights of Pantex, several changes to navigational aids at Amarillo International Airport have been implemented. For over one year, a radar airspace monitor and recording system has been connected to the airport surveillance radar at Amarillo to record the flight paths, aircraft types, and traffic density of aircraft in the vicinity of the Pantex plant. The data has provided a better understanding of the overflight risk at Pantex as well as a means to measure the effectiveness of risk reduction efforts

Oral contraceptives and the absolute risk of venous thromboembolism in women with single or multiple thrombophilic defects - Results from a retrospective family cohort study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Vlijmen, Elizabeth F. W.; Brouwer, Jan-Leendert P.; Veeger, Nic J. G. M.; Eskes, Tom K. A. B.; de Graeff, Pieter A.; van der Meer, Jan

2007-01-01

Background: The risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in women taking combined oral contraceptives (COCs) is attributed to changes in coagulation and fibrinolysis. Their impact may be greater in women with preexistent thrombophilic defects. Methods: We assessed the effects of COCs on absolute VTE

Residual lifetime and 10 year absolute risks of osteoporotic fractures in Chinese men and women.

Science.gov (United States)

Si, Lei; Winzenberg, Tania M; Chen, Mingsheng; Jiang, Qicheng; Palmer, Andrew J

2015-06-01

To determine the residual lifetime and 10 year absolute risks of osteoporotic fractures in Chinese men and women. A validated state-transition microsimulation model was used. Microsimulation and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to address the uncertainties in the model. All parameters including fracture incidence rates and mortality rates were retrieved from published literature. Simulated subjects were run through the model until they died to estimate the residual lifetime fracture risks. A 10 year time horizon was used to determine the 10 year fracture risks. We estimated the risk of only the first osteoporotic fracture during the simulation time horizon. The residual lifetime and 10 year risks of having the first osteoporotic (hip, clinical vertebral or wrist) fracture for Chinese women aged 50 years were 40.9% (95% CI: 38.3-44.0%) and 8.2% (95% CI: 6.8-9.3%) respectively. For men, the residual lifetime and 10 year fracture risks were 8.7% (95% CI: 7.5-9.8%) and 1.2% (95% CI: 0.8-1.7%) respectively. The residual lifetime fracture risks declined with age, whilst the 10 year fracture risks increased with age until the short-term mortality risks outstripped the fracture risks. Residual lifetime and 10 year clinical vertebral fracture risks were higher than those of hip and wrist fractures in both sexes. More than one third of the Chinese women and approximately one tenth of the Chinese men aged 50 years are expected to sustain a major osteoporotic fracture in their remaining lifetimes. Due to increased fracture risks and a rapidly ageing population, osteoporosis will present a great challenge to the Chinese healthcare system. While national data was used wherever possible, regional Chinese hip and clinical vertebral fracture incidence rates were used, wrist fracture rates were taken from a Norwegian study and calibrated to the Chinese population. Other fracture sites like tibia, humerus, ribs and pelvis were not included in the analysis, thus these

The policy relevance of absolute and relative poverty headcounts: What's in a number?

OpenAIRE

Notten, Geranda; de Neubourg, Chris

2007-01-01

Financial poverty indicators still play an important role in policymaking and evaluation. Countries such as the USA and the EU member states use one or several ‘official’ poverty indicators on which success of poverty reduction policy is regularly monitored. Whereas the US poverty indicator is based on an absolute concept of poverty, the EU Laeken indicator is based on a relative concept. But the consequences of such a decision are considerable. As absolute and relative poverty indicators ref...

Valuing Drinking Water Risk Reductions Using the Contingent Valuation Method: A Methodological Study of Risks from THM and Giardia (1986)

Science.gov (United States)

This study develops contingent valuation methods for measuring the benefits of mortality and morbidity drinking water risk reductions. The major effort was devoted to developing and testing a survey instrument to value low-level risk reductions.

Cancer risk in aluminum reduction plant workers (Canada)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Spinelli, J.J.; Demers, P.A.; Le, N.D.; Friesen, M.D.; Lorenzi, M.F.; Fang, R.; Gallagher, R.P. [British Columbia Cancer Agency, Vancouver, BC (Canada)

2006-09-15

A 14-year update to a previously published historical cohort study of aluminum reduction plant workers was conducted. All men with three or more years at an aluminum reduction plant in British Columbia (BC), Canada between the years 1954 and 1997 were included; a total of 6,423 workers. A total of 662 men were diagnosed with cancer, representing a 400% increase from the original study. Standardized mortality and incidence ratios were used to compare the cancer mortality and incidence of the cohort to that of the BC population. Poisson regression was used to examine risk by cumulative exposure to coal tar pitch volatiles (CTPV) measured as benzene soluble materials (BSM) and benzo(a)pyrene (BaP). The risk for bladder cancer was related to cumulative exposure to CTPV measured as BSM and BaP (p trends < 0.001), and the risk for stomach cancer was related to exposure measured by BaP (p trend BaP < 0.05). The risks for lung cancer (p trend < 0.001), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (p trend < 0.001), and kidney cancer (p trend < 0.01) also increased with increasing exposure, although the overall rates were similar to that of the general population. Analysis of the joint effect of smoking and CTPV exposure on cancer showed the observed dose-response relationships to be independent of smoking.

Evaluation of an HIV-risk reduction programme for first-year ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Results indicated that HIV-related knowledge; condom knowledge and risk perception were enhanced by the HIV- related risk reduction programme. However, there is a need for improvement, especially with regard to attitudes towards condoms since some students still had negative attitudes even after the intervention ...

POTENTIAL HEALTH RISK REDUCTION ARISING FROM REDUCED MERCURY EMISSIONS FROM COAL FIRED POWER PLANTS.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sullivan, T. M.; Lipfert, F. W.; Morris, S. C.; Moskowitz, P. D.

2001-09-01

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has announced plans to regulate mercury (Hg) emissions from coal-fired power plants. EPA has not prepared a quantitative assessment of the reduction in risk that could be achieved through reduction in coal plant emissions of Hg. To address this issue, Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) with support from the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Fossil Energy (DOE FE) prepared a quantitative assessment of the reduction in human health risk that could be achieved through reduction in coal plant emissions of Hg. The primary pathway for Hg exposure is through consumption of fish. The most susceptible population to Hg exposure is the fetus. Therefore the risk assessment focused on consumption of fish by women of child-bearing age. Dose response factors were generated from studies on loss of cognitive abilities (language skills, motor skills, etc.) by young children whose mothers consumed large amounts of fish with high Hg levels. Population risks were estimated for the general population in three regions of the country, (the Midwest, Northeast, and Southeast) that were identified by EPA as being heavily impacted by coal emissions. Three scenarios for reducing Hg emissions from coal plants were considered: (1) A base case using current conditions; (2) A 50% reduction; and, (3) A 90% reduction. These reductions in emissions were assumed to translate linearly into a reduction in fish Hg levels of 8.6% and 15.5%, respectively. Population risk estimates were also calculated for two subsistence fisher populations. These groups of people consume substantially more fish than the general public and, depending on location, the fish may contain higher Hg levels than average. Risk estimates for these groups were calculated for the three Hg levels used for the general population analyses. Analysis shows that the general population risks for exposure of the fetus to Hg are small. Estimated risks under current conditions (i.e., no

Absolutely relative or relatively absolute: violations of value invariance in human decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Teodorescu, Andrei R; Moran, Rani; Usher, Marius

2016-02-01

Making decisions based on relative rather than absolute information processing is tied to choice optimality via the accumulation of evidence differences and to canonical neural processing via accumulation of evidence ratios. These theoretical frameworks predict invariance of decision latencies to absolute intensities that maintain differences and ratios, respectively. While information about the absolute values of the choice alternatives is not necessary for choosing the best alternative, it may nevertheless hold valuable information about the context of the decision. To test the sensitivity of human decision making to absolute values, we manipulated the intensities of brightness stimuli pairs while preserving either their differences or their ratios. Although asked to choose the brighter alternative relative to the other, participants responded faster to higher absolute values. Thus, our results provide empirical evidence for human sensitivity to task irrelevant absolute values indicating a hard-wired mechanism that precedes executive control. Computational investigations of several modelling architectures reveal two alternative accounts for this phenomenon, which combine absolute and relative processing. One account involves accumulation of differences with activation dependent processing noise and the other emerges from accumulation of absolute values subject to the temporal dynamics of lateral inhibition. The potential adaptive role of such choice mechanisms is discussed.

Earth observation for disaster risk reduction in Pakistan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rafiq, L.

2012-01-01

This thesis investigates the role of Earth Observation (EO) for disaster risk reduction for Pakistan. It demonstrates that significant improvements are possible through the utilization of EO data for natural disaster risk reduction activities in Pakistan. In this thesis, a multi hazard approach is proposed in order to identify vulnerability and risk at district level in Pakistan. In particular, a methodology for ranking hazards, vulnerabilities and risks based on Delphi methods is developed. This method is implemented and the results are mapped for four selected hazards i.e., earthquakes, floods, cyclones and droughts. Based on the final risk rankings, the potential of EO is explored with a focus on vulnerability assessment through detailed analysis of two case studies i.e.; Flood and Cyclone/Tsunami. The study also reviews and evaluates the institutional framework of the National Disaster Management Authority of Pakistan in order to identify existing gaps and address them in view of modern technology being used globally. Results reveal that these gaps are mainly related to policies, coordination and communication of different stakeholders at the national level. The work also reviews the available Early Warning System (EWS) in Pakistan and particularly its usage during disasters. Within the context of EWS, multi-sensor satellite data have been utilized for the analysis of structure of an Arabian Sea tropical Cyclone. Results of this focal study provide useful information for operational analysis and forecasting as well as for designing disaster mitigation measures. This information may also play a major role in the development of cyclone warning strategies in the future. (author)

Assessment of reduction in perception of nuclear risk related to perception of environmental risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boemer, Veronica Araujo; Aquino, Afonso Rodrigues de

2009-01-01

This work presents a bibliographic research accomplished to evaluate the matter of reduction in risk perception, on people in general, that nuclear energy can show, for generation of electric power, face to perception of risk associated to environmental questions, as the global warming, from greenhouse effect, addressing the matter to the relevance of public acceptance for the development of new technologies. (author)

Indigenous knowledge for disaster risk reduction: An African perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nnamdi G. Iloka

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Indigenous knowledge is valuable knowledge that has helped local communities all over the world survive for generations. This knowledge originates from the interaction between members of the community and the environment in which they live. Although much has been written about indigenous knowledge, its documentation in the area of disaster risk reduction and climate change in Africa has been very limited. The wealth of this knowledge has not been well-recognised in the disaster risk reduction field, as policy-makers still rely on mitigation strategies based on scientific knowledge. Colonialism and lack of proper documentation of indigenous knowledge are some of the contributing factors to this. Ignoring the importance of understanding adaptive strategies of the local people has led to failed projects. Understanding how local people in Africa have managed to survive and adapt for generations, before the arrival of Western education, may be the key to developing sustainable policies to mitigate future challenges. Literature used in this article, obtained from the books, papers and publications of various experts in the fields of disaster risk reduction, climate change, indigenous knowledge and adaptation, highlight the need for more interest to be shown in indigenous knowledge, especially in the developing country context. This would lead to better strategies which originate from the community level but would aim for overall sustainable development in Africa.

Quantitative Risk reduction estimation Tool For Control Systems, Suggested Approach and Research Needs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Miles McQueen; Wayne Boyer; Mark Flynn; Sam Alessi

2006-03-01

For the past year we have applied a variety of risk assessment technologies to evaluate the risk to critical infrastructure from cyber attacks on control systems. More recently, we identified the need for a stand alone control system risk reduction estimation tool to provide owners and operators of control systems with a more useable, reliable, and credible method for managing the risks from cyber attack. Risk is defined as the probability of a successful attack times the value of the resulting loss, typically measured in lives and dollars. Qualitative and ad hoc techniques for measuring risk do not provide sufficient support for cost benefit analyses associated with cyber security mitigation actions. To address the need for better quantitative risk reduction models we surveyed previous quantitative risk assessment research; evaluated currently available tools; developed new quantitative techniques [17] [18]; implemented a prototype analysis tool to demonstrate how such a tool might be used; used the prototype to test a variety of underlying risk calculational engines (e.g. attack tree, attack graph); and identified technical and research needs. We concluded that significant gaps still exist and difficult research problems remain for quantitatively assessing the risk to control system components and networks, but that a useable quantitative risk reduction estimation tool is not beyond reach.

The role of service learning in teaching and research for disaster-risk reduction

Science.gov (United States)

Suckale, J.; Saiyed, Z.; Alvisyahrin, T.; Hilley, G. E.; Muhari, A.; Zoback, M. L. C.; Truebe, S.

2016-12-01

An important motivation for natural-hazards research is to reduce threats posed by natural disasters to at-risk communities. Yet, we rarely teach students how research may be used to construct implementable solutions that reduce disaster risk. The goal of this contribution is to evaluate the potential of service learning to impart students with both the scientific background and the skills necessary to navigate real-world constraints of disaster risk reduction. We present results from a service-learning class taught at Stanford in the Winter quarter of 2016 in collaboration with the Indonesian Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries and Syiah Kuala University, Banda Aceh. The main deliverable of the class was a final project in which students developed a specific idea of how to contribute to tsunami-risk reduction in Indonesia. A common critique of the service-learning approach posits that it may implicitly embed social and political perspectives within risk-reduction strategies that may be inappropriate within a particular culture. We attempted to avoid this problem using three strategies: First, we paired students from Stanford with students at Syiah Kuala University, Banda Aceh, to facilitate a close dialogue. Second, the Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries provided a list of current risk-reduction strategies without requiring students to contribute to one specific project to minimally precondition project suggestions. Third, our community partners provided ongoing feedback on the scope and feasibility of the proposed projects and students were assessed based on their ability to integrate the feedback. Preliminary results from our class suggest significant promise for a service-learning approach to teaching disaster-risk reduction. There was substantial student interest in service learning, particularly among undergraduates. Pre-and post-assessment surveys showed that over 75% of students adjusted previous notions about disaster-risk reduction during the

Absolute risk representation in cardiovascular disease prevention: comprehension and preferences of health care consumers and general practitioners involved in a focus group study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ryan Rebecca

2010-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Communicating risk is part of primary prevention of coronary heart disease and stroke, collectively referred to as cardiovascular disease (CVD. In Australia, health organisations have promoted an absolute risk approach, thereby raising the question of suitable standardised formats for risk communication. Methods Sixteen formats of risk representation were prepared including statements, icons, graphical formats, alone or in combination, and with variable use of colours. All presented the same risk, i.e., the absolute risk for a 55 year old woman, 16% risk of CVD in five years. Preferences for a five or ten-year timeframe were explored. Australian GPs and consumers were recruited for participation in focus groups, with the data analysed thematically and preferred formats tallied. Results Three focus groups with health consumers and three with GPs were held, involving 19 consumers and 18 GPs. Consumers and GPs had similar views on which formats were more easily comprehended and which conveyed 16% risk as a high risk. A simple summation of preferences resulted in three graphical formats (thermometers, vertical bar chart and one statement format as the top choices. The use of colour to distinguish risk (red, yellow, green and comparative information (age, sex, smoking status were important ingredients. Consumers found formats which combined information helpful, such as colour, effect of changing behaviour on risk, or comparison with a healthy older person. GPs preferred formats that helped them relate the information about risk of CVD to their patients, and could be used to motivate patients to change behaviour. Several formats were reported as confusing, such as a percentage risk with no contextual information, line graphs, and icons, particularly those with larger numbers. Whilst consumers and GPs shared preferences, the use of one format for all situations was not recommended. Overall, people across groups felt that risk

Governance of disaster risk reduction in Cameroon: The need to empower local government

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Henry N. Bang

2013-02-01

Full Text Available The impact of natural hazards and/or disasters in Cameroon continues to hit local communities hardest, but local government lacks the ability to manage disaster risks adequately. This is partly due to the fact that the necessity to mainstream disaster risk reduction into local governance and development practices is not yet an underlying principle of Cameroon’s disaster management framework. Using empirical and secondary data, this paper analyses the governance of disaster risks in Cameroon with particular focus on the challenges local government faces in implementing disaster risk reduction strategies. The hypothesis is that the governance of disaster risks is too centralised at the national level, with huge implications for the effective governance of disaster risks at the local level. Although Cameroon has reinvigorated efforts to address growing disaster risks in a proactive way, it is argued that the practical actions are more reactive than proactive in nature. The overall aim is to explore the challenges and opportunities that local government has in the governance of disaster risks. Based on the findings from this research, policy recommendations are suggested on ways to mainstream disaster risk reduction strategies into local governance, and advance understanding and practice in the local governance of disaster risks in the country.

The social value of mortality risk reduction: VSL versus the social welfare function approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Adler, Matthew D; Hammitt, James K; Treich, Nicolas

2014-05-01

We examine how different welfarist frameworks evaluate the social value of mortality risk reduction. These frameworks include classical, distributively unweighted cost-benefit analysis--i.e., the "value per statistical life" (VSL) approach-and various social welfare functions (SWFs). The SWFs are either utilitarian or prioritarian, applied to policy choice under risk in either an "ex post" or "ex ante" manner. We examine the conditions on individual utility and on the SWF under which these frameworks display sensitivity to wealth and to baseline risk. Moreover, we discuss whether these frameworks satisfy related properties that have received some attention in the literature, namely equal value of risk reduction, preference for risk equity, and catastrophe aversion. We show that the particular manner in which VSL ranks risk-reduction measures is not necessarily shared by other welfarist frameworks. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Benefit and harm of intensive blood pressure treatment: Derivation and validation of risk models using data from the SPRINT and ACCORD trials.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sanjay Basu

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Intensive blood pressure (BP treatment can avert cardiovascular disease (CVD events but can cause some serious adverse events. We sought to develop and validate risk models for predicting absolute risk difference (increased risk or decreased risk for CVD events and serious adverse events from intensive BP therapy. A secondary aim was to test if the statistical method of elastic net regularization would improve the estimation of risk models for predicting absolute risk difference, as compared to a traditional backwards variable selection approach.Cox models were derived from SPRINT trial data and validated on ACCORD-BP trial data to estimate risk of CVD events and serious adverse events; the models included terms for intensive BP treatment and heterogeneous response to intensive treatment. The Cox models were then used to estimate the absolute reduction in probability of CVD events (benefit and absolute increase in probability of serious adverse events (harm for each individual from intensive treatment. We compared the method of elastic net regularization, which uses repeated internal cross-validation to select variables and estimate coefficients in the presence of collinearity, to a traditional backwards variable selection approach. Data from 9,069 SPRINT participants with complete data on covariates were utilized for model development, and data from 4,498 ACCORD-BP participants with complete data were utilized for model validation. Participants were exposed to intensive (goal systolic pressure < 120 mm Hg versus standard (<140 mm Hg treatment. Two composite primary outcome measures were evaluated: (i CVD events/deaths (myocardial infarction, acute coronary syndrome, stroke, congestive heart failure, or CVD death, and (ii serious adverse events (hypotension, syncope, electrolyte abnormalities, bradycardia, or acute kidney injury/failure. The model for CVD chosen through elastic net regularization included interaction terms suggesting that older

The Differential Effects of Social Media Sites for Promoting Cancer Risk Reduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Lauckner, Carolyn; Whitten, Pamela

2016-09-01

Social media are potentially valuable tools for disseminating cancer education messages, but the differential effects of various sites on persuasive outcomes are unknown. In an effort to inform future health promotion, this research tested the effects of Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, and blogs for delivering a cancer risk reduction message. Using an experimental design, participants were randomly placed in several conditions that delivered the same message but with different forms of social media. Effects on comprehension and attitudes were examined, as they are important variables in the behavior change process. YouTube led to higher comprehension and stronger attitudes toward cancer risk reduction than Twitter, but there were no differences between other sites. Additionally, YouTube led to stronger attitudes toward cancer risk reduction as compared to Facebook, but not any other sites. These results demonstrate that, even if the message is kept constant, the form of social media used to deliver content can have an effect on persuasive outcomes. More research is needed to determine the mechanisms behind the differences found, however. Altogether, this line of research is valuable for any individuals seeking to use social media for health promotion purposes and could have direct implications for the development of cancer risk reduction campaigns.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of risk reduction at nuclear power plants: What have we learned from experience

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lochard, J.; Pages, P.

1984-01-01

Within the field of risk management techniques, cost-effectiveness analysis of risk reduction is now recognized as an adequate method for evaluating and defining the optimal allocation of protection and safety resources within large industrial systems. The paper considers some of the issues that arise in connection with cost-effectiveness analysis of risk reduction at nuclear power stations. Particular attention is called to both the interdependence between criteria that characterize risk reduction problems and the resulting aggregation and weighting procedures needed when the multidimensionality of criteria is explicitly taken into account. The discussion of these problems is illustrated with results of case studies on both public and occupational risk reduction at French PWRs during normal operation. (author)

Parallel structures for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in Southern Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Per Becker

2013-01-01

Full Text Available During the last decade, the interest of the international community in the concepts of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation has been growing immensely. Even though an increasing number of scholars seem to view these concepts as two sides of the same coin (at least when not considering the potentially positive effects of climate change, in practice the two concepts have developed in parallel rather than in an integrated manner when it comes to policy, rhetoric and funding opportunities amongst international organisations and donors. This study investigates the extent of the creation of parallel structures for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in the Southern African Development Community (SADC region. The chosen methodology for the study is a comparative case study and the data are collected through focus groups and content analysis of documentary sources, as well as interviews with key informants. The results indicate that parallel structures for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation have been established in all but one of the studied countries. The qualitative interviews performed in some of the countries indicate that stakeholders in disaster risk reduction view this duplication of structures as unfortunate, inefficient and a fertile setup for conflict over resources for the implementation of similar activities. Additional research is called for in order to study the concrete effects of having these parallel structures as a foundation for advocacy for more efficient future disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of risk reduction at nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lochard, J.; Maccia, C.; Pages, P.

1985-01-01

Cost-effectiveness analysis of risk reduction is now widely accepted as a rational analytical framework to consistently address the resource allocation problem underlying any risk management process. This paper presents how this technique can be usefully applied to complex systems such as the management of radioactive releases from nuclear power plants into the environment. (orig.) [de

The Good, The Bad and The Ugly: Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Versus Disaster Risk Creation (DRC)

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, James

2012-01-01

In understanding and trying to reduce the risk from disasters, connections are often articulated amongst poverty, vulnerability, risk, and disasters. These are welcome steps, but the approach taken in top-down international documents is rarely to articulate explicitly that vulnerability accrues from a wide variety of dynamic and long-term processes. Neglecting these processes—and failing to explore their links with poverty, risk, and disasters—tends to encourage disaster risk creation. This paper identifies seven examples of on-the-ground realities of long-term vulnerability within two clusters: Endangerment: 1 Environmental degradation. 2 Discrimination. 3 Displacement. Impoverishment: 4 Self-seeking public expenditure. 5 Denial of access to resources. 6 Corruption. 7 Siphoning of public money. Examples are presented as vignettes, many contemporary and many rooted in historical contexts, to demonstrate the extent to which “vulnerability drivers” emanate from greed, the misuse of political and commercial power, mismanagement and incompetence amongst other behaviours. Moving forward to the tackling of disaster risk creation, instead of simply seeking disaster risk reduction, requires detailed investigation into these contemporary and historical realities of the causes of vulnerability. That would support the integration of disaster risk reduction within the many wider contexts that foment and perpetuate vulnerability. PMID:22919564

The Good, The Bad and The Ugly: Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Versus Disaster Risk Creation (DRC).

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, James

2012-06-21

In understanding and trying to reduce the risk from disasters, connections are often articulated amongst poverty, vulnerability, risk, and disasters. These are welcome steps, but the approach taken in top-down international documents is rarely to articulate explicitly that vulnerability accrues from a wide variety of dynamic and long-term processes. Neglecting these processes-and failing to explore their links with poverty, risk, and disasters-tends to encourage disaster risk creation. This paper identifies seven examples of on-the-ground realities of long-term vulnerability within two clusters: Endangerment: 1 Environmental degradation. 2 Discrimination. 3 Displacement. Impoverishment: 4 Self-seeking public expenditure. 5 Denial of access to resources. 6 Corruption. 7 Siphoning of public money. Examples are presented as vignettes, many contemporary and many rooted in historical contexts, to demonstrate the extent to which "vulnerability drivers" emanate from greed, the misuse of political and commercial power, mismanagement and incompetence amongst other behaviours. Moving forward to the tackling of disaster risk creation, instead of simply seeking disaster risk reduction, requires detailed investigation into these contemporary and historical realities of the causes of vulnerability. That would support the integration of disaster risk reduction within the many wider contexts that foment and perpetuate vulnerability.

Ethical Responsibility of Governance for Integrating Disaster Risk Reduction with Development

Science.gov (United States)

Parkash Gupta, Surya

2015-04-01

The development in the public as well as the private sectors is controlled and regulated, directly or indirectly by the governments at federal, provincial and local levels. If this development goes haphazard and unplanned, without due considerations to environmental constraints and potential hazards; it is likely to cause disasters or may get affected by disasters. Therefore, it becomes an ethical responsibility of the people involved in governance sector to integrate disaster risk reduction with development in their administrative territories through enforcement of appropriate policies, guidelines and regulatory mechanisms. Such mechanisms should address the social, scientific, economic, environmental, and legal requirements that play significant role in planning, implementation of developmental activities as well as disaster management. The paper focuses on defining the ethical responsibilities for the governance sector for integrating disaster risk reduction with development. It highlights the ethical issues with examples from two case studies, one from the Uttarakhand state and the other Odhisa state in India. The case studies illustrates how does it make a difference in disaster risk reduction if the governments own or do not own ethical responsibilities. The paper considers two major disaster events, flash floods in Uttarakhand state and Cyclone Phailin in Odhisa state, that happened during the year 2013. The study points out that it makes a great difference in terms of consequences and response to disasters when ethical responsibilities are owned by the governance sector. The papers attempts to define these ethical responsibilities for integrating disaster risk reduction with development so that the governments can be held accountable for their acts or non-actions.

Smartphone Delivery of Mobile HIV Risk Reduction Education.

Science.gov (United States)

Phillips, Karran A; Epstein, David H; Mezghanni, Mustapha; Vahabzadeh, Massoud; Reamer, David; Agage, Daniel; Preston, Kenzie L

2013-01-01

We sought to develop and deploy a video-based smartphone-delivered mobile HIV Risk Reduction (mHIVRR) intervention to individuals in an addiction treatment clinic. We developed 3 video modules that consisted of a 10-minute HIVRR video, 11 acceptability questions, and 3 knowledge questions and deployed them as a secondary study within a larger study of ecological momentary and geographical momentary assessments. All 24 individuals who remained in the main study long enough completed the mHIVRR secondary study. All 3 videos met our a priori criteria for acceptability "as is" in the population: they achieved median scores of ≤2.5 on a 5-point Likert scale; ≤20% of the individuals gave them the most negative rating on the scale; a majority of the individuals stated that they would not prefer other formats over video-based smartphone-delivered one (all P smartphone is acceptable, feasible and may increase HIV/STD risk reduction knowledge. Future studies, with pre-intervention assessments of knowledge and random assignment, are needed to confirm these findings.

Consideration on risk reduction of future breeder reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vossebrecker, H.

1990-09-01

An overall concept of risk minimization of future sodium-cooled fast breeder reactors is presented in this report. Since shutdown reliability is of vital importance for the breeder safety, a so-called third shutdown level is proposed in addition to the two independent fast shutdown systems. It is basically a group of passive and active measures, which are capable to bring the reactor to safe conditions in all conceivable accident-initiating events and in case of total failure of the two actual shutdown systems. Core disruptions as a result of shutdown failure are therefore beyond the scope of technical imagination. Measures are also foreseen to combat other conceivable causes of core disruption, in particular to achieve residual heat removal with essentially passive systems by making use of the good natural circulation capacity of sodium. On top of that, since absolute safety can never be claimed, damage-limiting containment measures are discussed

Constructing a holistic approach to disaster risk reduction: the significance of focusing on vulnerability reduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Palliyaguru, Roshani; Amaratunga, Dilanthi; Baldry, David

2014-01-01

As a result of the increase in natural disaster losses, policy-makers, practitioners, and members of the research community around the world are seeking effective and efficient means of overcoming or minimising them. Although various theoretical constructs are beneficial to understanding the disaster phenomenon and the means of minimising losses, the disaster risk management process becomes less effective if theory and practice are set apart from one another. Consequently, this paper seeks to establish a relationship between two theoretical constructs, 'disaster risk reduction (DRR)' and 'vulnerability reduction', and to develop a holistic approach to DRR with particular reference to improving its applicability in practical settings. It is based on a literature review and on an overall understanding gained through two case studies of post-disaster infrastructure reconstruction projects in Sri Lanka and three expert interviews in Sri Lanka and the United Kingdom. © 2014 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2014.

A Group Intervention for HIV/STI Risk Reduction among Indian Couples

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ritu Nehra

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Background: HIV in India is transmitted primarily by heterosexual contact. The present study sought to test the feasibility of a group HIV/STI risk reduction intervention among heterosexual couples in India. Methods: Focus groups and key informant interviews were used in 2008 to culturally tailor the intervention. Thirty sexually active and HIV/STI negative couples were enrolled and assessed regarding risk behavior and sexual barrier acceptability. Gender-concordant group sessions used cognitive behavioral strategies for HIV/STI prevention. Results: At baseline, male condom use was low (36%; no participants reported use of female condoms or vaginal gels. HIV knowledge was low; women had more HIV knowledge and more positive attitudes towards condom use than men. Post-intervention, willingness to use all barrier products (t = 10.0, P< .001 and intentions to avoid risk behavior increased (t = 5.62, P< .001. Conclusion: This study illustrates the feasibility of utilizing a group intervention to enhance HIV/STI risk reduction among Indian couples.

ABSOLUTE NEUTRINO MASSES

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schechter, J.; Shahid, M. N.

2012-01-01

We discuss the possibility of using experiments timing the propagation of neutrino beams over large distances to help determine the absolute masses of the three neutrinos.......We discuss the possibility of using experiments timing the propagation of neutrino beams over large distances to help determine the absolute masses of the three neutrinos....

The relative and absolute speed of radiographic screen - film systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, In Ja; Huh, Joon

1993-01-01

Recently, a large number of new screen-film systems have become available for use in diagnostic radiology. These new screens are made of materials generally known as rare - earth phosphors which have high x-ray absorption and high x-ray to light conversion efficiency compared to calcium tungstate phosphors. The major advantage of these new systems is reduction of patient exposure due to their high speed or high sensitivity. However, a system with excessively high speed can result in a significant degradation of radiographic image quality. Therefore, the speed is important parameters for users of these system. Our aim of in this was to determine accurately and precisely the absolute speed and relative speeds of both new and conventional screen - film system. We determined the absolute speed in condition of BRH phantom beam quality and the relative speed were measured by a split - screen technique in condition of BRH and ANSI phantom beam quality. The absolute and the relative speed were determined for 8 kinds of screen - 4 kinds of film in regular system and 7 kinds pf screen - 7 kinds of film in ortho system. In this study we could know the New Rx, T - MAT G has the highest film speed, also know Green system's standard deviation of relative speed larger than blue system. It was realized that there were no relationship between the absolute speed and the blue system. It was realized that there were no relationship between the absolute speed and the relative speed in ortho or regular system

Sexual health risk reduction interventions for people with severe mental illness: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Pandor, Abdullah; Kaltenthaler, Eva; Higgins, Agnes; Lorimer, Karen; Smith, Shubulade; Wylie, Kevan; Wong, Ruth

2015-02-12

Despite variability in sexual activity among people with severe mental illness, high-risk sexual behavior (e.g. unprotected intercourse, multiple partners, sex trade and illicit drug use) is common. Sexual health risk reduction interventions (such as educational and behavioral interventions, motivational exercises, counselling and service delivery), developed and implemented for people with severe mental illness, may improve participants' knowledge, attitudes, beliefs behaviors or practices (including assertiveness skills) and could lead to a reduction in risky sexual behavior. This systematic review evaluates the effectiveness of sexual health risk reduction interventions for people with severe mental illness. Thirteen electronic databases (including MEDLINE, EMBASE and PsycINFO) were searched to August 2014, and supplemented by hand-searching relevant articles and contacting experts. All controlled trials (randomized or non-randomized) comparing the effectiveness of sexual health risk reduction interventions with usual care for individuals living in the community with severe mental illness were included. Outcomes included a range of biological, behavioral and proxy endpoints. Narrative synthesis was used to combine the evidence. Thirteen controlled trials (all from the USA) were included. Although there was no clear and consistent evidence that interventions reduce the total number of sex partners or improved behavioral intentions in sexual risk behavior, positive effects were generally observed in condom use, condom protected intercourse and on measures of HIV knowledge, attitudes to condom use and sexual behaviors and practices. However, the robustness of these findings is low due to the large between study variability, small sample sizes and low-to-moderate quality of included studies. There is insufficient evidence at present to fully support or reject the identified sexual health risk reduction interventions for people with severe mental illness. Given the

US-Soviet cooperation in countering nuclear terrorism: the role of risk reduction centers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nunn, S.; Warner, J.W.

1987-01-01

Preventing nuclear terrorism should be high on the agenda of US-Soviet relations. Indeed, the specter of nuclear terrorism, more than any other factor originally prompted and has subsequently sustained the author's deep interest in US-Soviet agreements on establishment of US-Soviet Nuclear Risk Reduction Centers and other important risk-reduction measures. Such centers can play an invaluable role in facilitating discussions aimed at forestalling possible contingencies and in providing a mechanism for dampening escalatory dangers that might otherwise result from any future nuclear terrorism incident. In addition to these crucial substantive functions, the centers could serve to reassure anxious publics that the governments they have entrusted with command authority over tens of thousands of nuclear devices are giving the highest priority to reducing the risk that any of them will ever be used, whether by design or by accident. Nuclear risk Reduction Centers are an idea whose time has come

Absolute nuclear material assay

Science.gov (United States)

Prasad, Manoj K [Pleasanton, CA; Snyderman, Neal J [Berkeley, CA; Rowland, Mark S [Alamo, CA

2010-07-13

A method of absolute nuclear material assay of an unknown source comprising counting neutrons from the unknown source and providing an absolute nuclear material assay utilizing a model to optimally compare to the measured count distributions. In one embodiment, the step of providing an absolute nuclear material assay comprises utilizing a random sampling of analytically computed fission chain distributions to generate a continuous time-evolving sequence of event-counts by spreading the fission chain distribution in time.

Emissions trading and competitiveness: pros and cons of relative and absolute schemes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuik, Onno; Mulder, Machiel

2004-01-01

Emissions trading is a hot issue. At national as well as supranational levels, proposals for introduction of emissions trading schemes have been made. This paper assesses alternative emissions trading schemes at domestic level: (1) schemes where the total level of emissions is fixed (absolute cap-and-trade), (2) schemes where the allowable level of emissions per firm is related to some firm-specific indicator (relative cap-and-trade), and (3) mixed schemes which combine elements of the above alternatives. We present a quantitative assessment of these alternatives for climate change policy in the Netherlands. It is concluded that while relative cap-and-trade would avoid negative effects on competitiveness, it would not reduce emissions at the lowest costs. Besides, the addition of a trade system to existing relative standards does not result in additional emission reduction; it should be combined with other policy measures, such as energy taxes, in order to realise further reduction. Absolute cap-and-trade leads to efficient emissions reduction, but, implemented at the national level, its overall macroeconomic costs may be significant. The mixed scheme has as drawback that it treats firms unequal, which leads to high administrative costs. We conclude that none of the trading schemes is an advisable instrument for domestic climate policy

Farmers prone to drought risk : why some farmers undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures while others not?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gidey, T.G.; van der Veen, A.

2015-01-01

This research investigates farmers’ cognitive perceptions of risk and the behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. It has been observed that people who are susceptible to natural hazards often fail to act, or do very little, to protect their assets or lives. To answer

First Evaluation of a Contingency Management Intervention Addressing Adolescent Substance Use and Sexual Risk Behaviors: Risk Reduction Therapy for Adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Letourneau, Elizabeth J; McCart, Michael R; Sheidow, Ashli J; Mauro, Pia M

2017-01-01

There is a need for interventions that comprehensively address youth substance use disorders (SUD) and sexual risk behaviors. Risk Reduction Therapy for Adolescents (RRTA) adapts a validated family-focused intervention for youth SUD to include sexual risk reduction components in a single intervention. In this first evaluation of RRTA, drug court involved youth were randomly assigned to RRTA (N=45) or usual services (US; N=60) and followed through 12-months post-baseline. RRTA included weekly cognitive behavior therapy and behavior management training and contingency-contracting with a point earning system managed by caregivers targeting drug use and sexual risk antecedents. Longitudinal models estimated within-group change and between-group differences through 6- and 12-month follow-up on outcomes for substance use, sexual risk behaviors, and protective HIV behaviors. Robust effects of the intervention were not detected under conditions of the study that included potent background interventions by the juvenile drug court. Considerations about future development and testing of sexual risk reduction therapy for youth are discussed, including the potential role of contingency management in future interventions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sexual risk reduction among Zambian couples | Jones | SAHARA-J ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Zambia has over 1 million HIV infections nationwide and an urban prevalence rate of 23%. This study compared the impact of male involvement in multiple and single session risk reduction interventions among inconsistent condom users in Zambia and the role of serostatus among HIV-seropositive and serodiscordant ...

Evolution of the excess absolute risk (EAR) in the Valencian breast cancer screening programme

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferrer, S.; Ramos, M.; Villaescusa, J. I.; Verdu, G.; Salas, M. D.; Cuevas, M. D.

2004-01-01

Breast cancer is one of the most frequent diseases in women, with a high incidence rate. The best fight against the breast cancer is the early detection by menas of mammograms in a screening programme. The Valencian Breast Cancer Screening Programme (VBCSP) started at 1992, and it is composed of twenty-two mammography units. The programme is targeted towards asympotomatic women dfrom 45 to 69 years old, but this screening has a negative influence in the studied woman, whatever the diagnosis was. By means of MCNP-4c2 Monte Carlo code, some conversion factors from air kerma air kerma to glandular dose have been developed. Different breast woamn models, according to the Valencian brest anathomy (taking into account the relation breast radius / breast compression thickness obtained from real samples, have been simulated in order to obtain the glandular breast dose values. Quality control parameters as ESAK values were also employed for developing the methods. The conversion factors give a simple and fast wasy to obtain the mean glandular dose from mammography exposition parameters. The glandular dose has been also calculated following the European Protocol on Dosimetry in order to compare the results of the new methodology. Four sample populations of 100 omen from each uunit of the VBCSP have been taken innnn order to estimate the mean glandular dose and the associated excess absolute risk (EAR). Once the doses for each woman from the samples are obtained and according to the age of them, the EAR value for each sample has been determinated following the UNSCEAR 2000 projection risk model, which takes into account the characteristics of the Valencian population and gives the EAR for radio-induced breast cancer. The results have been calculated and compared by means of the ASQRAD software, but with an older risk projection model, the UNSCEAR 1994. Once the four sample average EAR have been calculated, the evolution of the induced risk in the Valencian Breast Cancer

Thermodynamics of negative absolute pressures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lukacs, B.; Martinas, K.

1984-03-01

The authors show that the possibility of negative absolute pressure can be incorporated into the axiomatic thermodynamics, analogously to the negative absolute temperature. There are examples for such systems (GUT, QCD) processing negative absolute pressure in such domains where it can be expected from thermodynamical considerations. (author)

Living with risk. A global review of disaster reduction initiatives. Preliminary version

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2002-01-01

In recent years the world has witnessed an interminable succession of disasters - floods, storms, earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions and wildfires that have claimed many thousands of lives, caused material losses in the tens of billions of dollars, and inflicted a terrible toll on developing countries in particular, where disasters divert attention and resources needed desperately to escape poverty. Communities will always face natural hazards, but today's disasters are often generated by, or at least exacerbated by, human activities. At the most dramatic level, human activities are changing the natural balance of the earth, interfering as never before with the atmosphere, the oceans, the polar ice caps, the forest cover and the natural pillars that make our world a livable home. But we are also putting ourselves in harm's way in less visible ways. At no time in human history have so many people lived in cities clustered around seismically active areas. Destitution and demographic pressure have led more people than ever before to live in flood plains or in areas prone to landslides. Poor land-use planning; environmental mismanagement; and a lack of regulatory mechanisms both increase the risk and exacerbate the effects of disasters. Living with risk: a global review of disaster reduction is the first comprehensive effort by the United Nations system to take stock of disaster reduction initiatives throughout the world. Coordinated by the secretariat of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR), the report discusses current disaster trends, assesses policies aimed at mitigating the impact of disasters, and offers examples of successful initiatives. It also recommends that risk reduction be integrated into sustainable development at all levels - global, national and local. Most of all, Living with risk shows that we are far from helpless in the face of natural hazards. Early warning and risk reduction measures have been important factors in

Comparative effectiveness of personalized lifestyle management strategies for cardiovascular disease risk reduction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

P. Chu (Paula); A. Pandya; J.A. Salomon (Joshua A); S.J. Goldie (Sue J); Hunink, M.G.M. (M.G. Myriam)

2015-01-01

textabstractBackground-Evidence shows that healthy diet, exercise, smoking interventions, and stress reduction reduce cardiovascular disease risk. We aimed to compare the effectiveness of these lifestyle interventions for individual risk profiles and determine their rank order in reducing 10-year

Household flood risk reduction in the Czech Republic

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Duží, Barbora; Vikhrov, Dmytro; Kelman, I.; Stojanov, Robert; Jakubínský, Jiří

2015-01-01

Roč. 18, č. 8 (2015), s. 1-6 ISSN 1381-2386 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.4.31.0056; GA MŠk(CZ) LD13032; GA MŠk(CZ) LD13033 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : Bečva River Basin * Czech Republic * flood risk reduction * floods * household adaptation * household coping Subject RIV: AO - Sociology, Demography Impact factor: 3.085, year: 2015

Harnessing farmers' knowledge and perceptions for health-risk reduction in wastewater-irrigated agriculture

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Keraita, Bernard; Drechsel, Pay; Seidu, Razak

2009-01-01

This chapter addresses the importance of understanding farmers' knowledge and perceptions on health-risk and risk-reduction measures for the development of mutually acceptable risk-management strategies. Drawing on studies from different countries, the chapter shows that it is not realistic to ex...

Harnessing Farmers' knowledge and perceptions for health-risk reduction in wastewater-irrigated agriculture

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Keraita, Bernhard; Drechsel, Pay; Seidu, Razak

2010-01-01

This chapter addresses the importance of understanding farmers’ knowledge and perceptions on health-risk and risk-reduction measures for the development of mutually acceptable risk-management strategies. Drawing on studies from different countries, the chapter shows that it is not realistic to ex...

Improvement in spine bone density and reduction in risk of vertebral fractures during treatment with antiresorptive drugs.

Science.gov (United States)

Cummings, Steven R; Karpf, David B; Harris, Fran; Genant, Harry K; Ensrud, Kristine; LaCroix, Andrea Z; Black, Dennis M

2002-03-01

To estimate how much the improvement in bone mass accounts for the reduction in risk of vertebral fracture that has been observed in randomized trials of antiresorptive treatments for osteoporosis. After a systematic search, we conducted a meta-analysis of 12 trials to describe the relation between improvement in spine bone mineral density and reduction in risk of vertebral fracture in postmenopausal women. We also used logistic models to estimate the proportion of the reduction in risk of vertebral fracture observed with alendronate in the Fracture Intervention Trial that was due to improvement in bone mineral density. Across the 12 trials, a 1% improvement in spine bone mineral density was associated with a 0.03 decrease (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.02 to 0.05) in the relative risk (RR) of vertebral fracture. The reductions in risk were greater than predicted from improvement in bone mineral density; for example, the model estimated that treatments predicted to reduce fracture risk by 20% (RR = 0.80), based on improvement in bone mineral density, actually reduce the risk of fracture by about 45% (RR = 0.55). In the Fracture Intervention Trial, improvement in spine bone mineral density explained 16% (95% CI: 11% to 27%) of the reduction in the risk of vertebral fracture with alendronate. Improvement in spine bone mineral density during treatment with antiresorptive drugs accounts for a predictable but small part of the observed reduction in the risk of vertebral fracture.

Risk of hospital admission for COPD following smoking cessation and reduction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Godtfredsen, N S; Vestbo, J; Osler, M

2002-01-01

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the effects of changes in smoking habits on the subsequent risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between smoking cessation and reduction and admission to hospital for COPD in a general...... by at least 50% between the two initial examinations without quitting and smokers who stopped smoking during this time were compared with continuous heavy smokers using a Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: During the follow up period 1,260 subjects (741 men and 519 women) were admitted to hospital...... for COPD. After multivariate adjustment, quitting smoking was associated with a significant reduction in the risk of hospital admission. The relative hazard (HR) was 0.57 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.33 to 0.99). Those who reduced smoking did not show a significantly lower risk of hospitalisation than...

Social Participation and Disaster Risk Reduction Behaviors in Tsunami Prone Areas

Science.gov (United States)

Witvorapong, Nopphol; Muttarak, Raya; Pothisiri, Wiraporn

2015-01-01

This paper examines the relationships between social participation and disaster risk reduction actions. A survey of 557 households in tsunami prone areas in Phang Nga, Thailand was conducted following the 2012 Indian Ocean earthquakes. We use a multivariate probit model to jointly estimate the likelihood of undertaking three responses to earthquake and tsunami hazards (namely, (1) following disaster-related news closely, (2) preparing emergency kits and/or having a family emergency plan, and (3) having an intention to migrate) and community participation. We find that those who experienced losses from the 2004 tsunami are more likely to participate in community activities and respond to earthquake hazards. Compared to men, women are more likely to prepare emergency kits and/or have an emergency plan and have a greater intention to migrate. Living in a community with a higher proportion of women with tertiary education increases the probability of engaging in community activities and carrying out disaster risk reduction measures. Individuals who participate in village-based activities are 5.2% more likely to undertake all three risk reduction actions compared to those not engaging in community activities. This implies that encouraging participation in community activities can have positive externalities in disaster mitigation. PMID:26153891

Reduction of Systemic Risk by Means of Pigouvian Taxation.

Science.gov (United States)

Zlatić, Vinko; Gabbi, Giampaolo; Abraham, Hrvoje

2015-01-01

We analyze the possibility of reduction of systemic risk in financial markets through Pigouvian taxation of financial institutions, which is used to support the rescue fund. We introduce the concept of the cascade risk with a clear operational definition as a subclass and a network related measure of the systemic risk. Using financial networks constructed from real Italian money market data and using realistic parameters, we show that the cascade risk can be substantially reduced by a small rate of taxation and by means of a simple strategy of the money transfer from the rescue fund to interbanking market subjects. Furthermore, we show that while negative effects on the return on investment (ROI) are direct and certain, an overall positive effect on risk adjusted return on investments (ROIRA) is visible. Please note that the taxation is introduced as a monetary/regulatory, not as a _scal measure, as the term could suggest. The rescue fund is implemented in a form of a common reserve fund.

Reduction of Systemic Risk by Means of Pigouvian Taxation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vinko Zlatić

Full Text Available We analyze the possibility of reduction of systemic risk in financial markets through Pigouvian taxation of financial institutions, which is used to support the rescue fund. We introduce the concept of the cascade risk with a clear operational definition as a subclass and a network related measure of the systemic risk. Using financial networks constructed from real Italian money market data and using realistic parameters, we show that the cascade risk can be substantially reduced by a small rate of taxation and by means of a simple strategy of the money transfer from the rescue fund to interbanking market subjects. Furthermore, we show that while negative effects on the return on investment (ROI are direct and certain, an overall positive effect on risk adjusted return on investments (ROIRA is visible. Please note that the taxation is introduced as a monetary/regulatory, not as a _scal measure, as the term could suggest. The rescue fund is implemented in a form of a common reserve fund.

Quantifying risk: the role of absolute and relative measures in interpreting risk of adverse reactions from product labels of antipsychotic medications.

Science.gov (United States)

Citrome, Leslie

2009-09-01

Pharmaceutical product labeling as approved by regulatory agencies include statements of adverse event risk. Product labels include descriptive statements such as whether events are uncommon or rare, as well as percentage occurrence for more common events. In addition tables are provided with the frequencies of the latter events for both product and placebo as observed in clinical trials. Competing products are not mentioned in a specific drug's product labeling but indirect comparisons can be made using the corresponding label information for the alternate product. Two types of tools are easily used for this purpose: absolute measures such as number needed to harm (NNH), and relative measures such as relative risk increase (RRI). The calculations for both of these types of quantitative measures are presented using as examples the oral first-line second-generation antipsychotic medications. Among three sample outcomes selected a priori, akathisia, weight gain, and discontinuation from a clinical trial because of an adverse reaction, there appears to be differences among the different antipsychotics versus placebo. Aripiprazole was associated with the highest risk for akathisia, particularly when used as adjunctive treatment of major depressive disorder (NNH 5, 95% CI 4-7; RRI 525%, 95% CI 267%-964%). Although insufficient information was available in product labeling to calculate the CI, olanzapine was associated with the highest risk for weight gain of at least 7% from baseline (NNH 6, RRI 640% for adults; NNH 4, RRI 314% for adolescents), and quetiapine for the indication of bipolar depression was associated with the highest risk of discontinuation from a clinical trial because of an adverse reaction (NNH 8, RRI 265% for 600 mg/d; NNH 15, RRI 137% for 300 mg/d). In conclusion, with certain limitations, it is possible for the clinician to extract information from medication product labeling regarding the frequency with which certain adverse reactions can be

Social Geology and Landslide Disaster Risk Reduction in Sri Lanka

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jayasingha P

2017-03-01

Full Text Available AbstractLandslide disaster risk reduction is presently a challenging task facing by Sri Lankangeologists. Increasing trend of population growth in Sri Lanka has adversely affected thestability of central highland due to various human activities. Among them establishment ofhuman settlements and change in land use pattern have become a serious issue in triggeringland instabilities in central highland of the country. National Building Research Oragnisationwhich is the main focal point in land slide disaster risk reduction in Sri Lanka has takenvaluable and timely needed actions including preparation of landslide hazard zonation maps,early warnings and mitigations. Though the landslide is a geological phenomenon, it is highlyinteracted with human societies. Hence managing the issues arising with the landslideoccurrence should be addressed with a sociological approach. This new approach is known asSocio Geological approach which is discussed here.Key words: Landslide, Geology, Socio Geology, Social Geologist

Danish Towns during Absolutism

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

This anthology, No. 4 in the Danish Urban Studies Series, presents in English recent significant research on Denmark's urban development during the Age of Absolutism, 1660-1848, and features 13 articles written by leading Danish urban historians. The years of Absolutism were marked by a general...

Profiting from negawatts: Reducing absolute consumption and emissions through a performance-based energy economy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Steinberger, Julia K.; Niel, Johan van; Bourg, Dominique

2009-01-01

Current energy and GHG emissions policies either focus directly on emissions or promote renewable production and the implementation of specific efficiency measures. Meanwhile, the fundamental structure of the energy market based on profits through energy throughput remains largely unchallenged. This policy oversight prevents the transition to an energy economy in which profits are based on energy services delivered at the lowest energy cost: a performance-based energy economy (PBEE). The PBEE applies the combined concepts of the performance economy and energy services to the energy sector. Energy Service Companies (ESCOs) are discussed as an example of PBEE practices. The implications for energy suppliers and consumers as well as the conditions for PBEE diffusion and consequences for technological change are also explored. The expected environmental, social and economic benefits are described. However, absolute consumption and emissions reductions may prove elusive due to the rebound effect. In order to forestall rebound-led increases, complementary policy measures likely to lead to absolute reductions are required

Profiting from negawatts. Reducing absolute consumption and emissions through a performance-based energy economy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Steinberger, Julia K. [IPTEH, Quartier Sorge-Bat. Amphipole, University of Lausanne, CH-1015-Lausanne (Switzerland); Institute of Social Ecology, Klagenfurt University, Schottenfeldg. 29, A-1070 Vienna (Austria); van Niel, Johan [IPTEH, Quartier Sorge-Bat. Amphipole, University of Lausanne, CH-1015-Lausanne (Switzerland); CREIDD, University of Technology of Troyes, 12 rue Marie Curie, BP 2060, 10010 Troyes Cedex (France); Bourg, Dominique [IPTEH, Quartier Sorge-Bat. Amphipole, University of Lausanne, CH-1015-Lausanne (Switzerland)

2009-01-15

Current energy and GHG emissions policies either focus directly on emissions or promote renewable production and the implementation of specific efficiency measures. Meanwhile, the fundamental structure of the energy market based on profits through energy throughput remains largely unchallenged. This policy oversight prevents the transition to an energy economy in which profits are based on energy services delivered at the lowest energy cost: a performance-based energy economy (PBEE). The PBEE applies the combined concepts of the performance economy and energy services to the energy sector. Energy Service Companies (ESCOs) are discussed as an example of PBEE practices. The implications for energy suppliers and consumers as well as the conditions for PBEE diffusion and consequences for technological change are also explored. The expected environmental, social and economic benefits are described. However, absolute consumption and emissions reductions may prove elusive due to the rebound effect. In order to forestall rebound-led increases, complementary policy measures likely to lead to absolute reductions are required. (author)

Profiting from negawatts: Reducing absolute consumption and emissions through a performance-based energy economy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Steinberger, Julia K. [IPTEH, Quartier Sorge-Bat. Amphipole, University of Lausanne, CH-1015-Lausanne (Switzerland); Institute of Social Ecology, Klagenfurt University, Schottenfeldg. 29, A-1070 Vienna (Austria)], E-mail: julia.steinberger@uni-klu.ac.at; Niel, Johan van [IPTEH, Quartier Sorge-Bat. Amphipole, University of Lausanne, CH-1015-Lausanne (Switzerland); CREIDD, University of Technology of Troyes, 12 rue Marie Curie, BP 2060, 10010 Troyes Cedex (France); Bourg, Dominique [IPTEH, Quartier Sorge-Bat. Amphipole, University of Lausanne, CH-1015-Lausanne (Switzerland)

2009-01-15

Current energy and GHG emissions policies either focus directly on emissions or promote renewable production and the implementation of specific efficiency measures. Meanwhile, the fundamental structure of the energy market based on profits through energy throughput remains largely unchallenged. This policy oversight prevents the transition to an energy economy in which profits are based on energy services delivered at the lowest energy cost: a performance-based energy economy (PBEE). The PBEE applies the combined concepts of the performance economy and energy services to the energy sector. Energy Service Companies (ESCOs) are discussed as an example of PBEE practices. The implications for energy suppliers and consumers as well as the conditions for PBEE diffusion and consequences for technological change are also explored. The expected environmental, social and economic benefits are described. However, absolute consumption and emissions reductions may prove elusive due to the rebound effect. In order to forestall rebound-led increases, complementary policy measures likely to lead to absolute reductions are required.

41 CFR 102-80.55 - Are Federal agencies responsible for managing the execution of risk reduction projects?

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... Management Risks and Risk Reduction Strategies § 102-80.55 Are Federal agencies responsible for managing the... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Are Federal agencies responsible for managing the execution of risk reduction projects? 102-80.55 Section 102-80.55 Public...

Fluctuation theorems in feedback-controlled open quantum systems: Quantum coherence and absolute irreversibility

Science.gov (United States)

Murashita, Yûto; Gong, Zongping; Ashida, Yuto; Ueda, Masahito

2017-10-01

The thermodynamics of quantum coherence has attracted growing attention recently, where the thermodynamic advantage of quantum superposition is characterized in terms of quantum thermodynamics. We investigate the thermodynamic effects of quantum coherent driving in the context of the fluctuation theorem. We adopt a quantum-trajectory approach to investigate open quantum systems under feedback control. In these systems, the measurement backaction in the forward process plays a key role, and therefore the corresponding time-reversed quantum measurement and postselection must be considered in the backward process, in sharp contrast to the classical case. The state reduction associated with quantum measurement, in general, creates a zero-probability region in the space of quantum trajectories of the forward process, which causes singularly strong irreversibility with divergent entropy production (i.e., absolute irreversibility) and hence makes the ordinary fluctuation theorem break down. In the classical case, the error-free measurement ordinarily leads to absolute irreversibility, because the measurement restricts classical paths to the region compatible with the measurement outcome. In contrast, in open quantum systems, absolute irreversibility is suppressed even in the presence of the projective measurement due to those quantum rare events that go through the classically forbidden region with the aid of quantum coherent driving. This suppression of absolute irreversibility exemplifies the thermodynamic advantage of quantum coherent driving. Absolute irreversibility is shown to emerge in the absence of coherent driving after the measurement, especially in systems under time-delayed feedback control. We show that absolute irreversibility is mitigated by increasing the duration of quantum coherent driving or decreasing the delay time of feedback control.

Simulation study of the effect of influenza and influenza vaccination on risk of acquiring Guillain-Barré syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Hawken, Steven; Kwong, Jeffrey C; Deeks, Shelley L; Crowcroft, Natasha S; McGeer, Allison J; Ducharme, Robin; Campitelli, Michael A; Coyle, Doug; Wilson, Kumanan

2015-02-01

It is unclear whether seasonal influenza vaccination results in a net increase or decrease in the risk for Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS). To assess the effect of seasonal influenza vaccination on the absolute risk of acquiring GBS, we used simulation models and published estimates of age- and sex-specific risks for GBS, influenza incidence, and vaccine effectiveness. For a hypothetical 45-year-old woman and 75-year-old man, excess GBS risk for influenza vaccination versus no vaccination was -0.36/1 million vaccinations (95% credible interval -1.22% to 0.28) and -0.42/1 million vaccinations (95% credible interval, -3.68 to 2.44), respectively. These numbers represent a small absolute reduction in GBS risk with vaccination. Under typical conditions (e.g. influenza incidence rates >5% and vaccine effectiveness >60%), vaccination reduced GBS risk. These findings should strengthen confidence in the safety of influenza vaccine and allow health professionals to better put GBS risk in context when discussing influenza vaccination with patients.

Risk factors for avascular necrosis after closed reduction for developmental dysplasia of the hip.

Science.gov (United States)

Schur, Mathew D; Lee, Christopher; Arkader, Alexandre; Catalano, Anthony; Choi, Paul D

2016-06-01

The purpose of this study was to identify and evaluate risk factors of avascular necrosis (AVN) after closed treatment for developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH). A retrospective review of children diagnosed with DDH at a tertiary-care children's hospital between 1986 and 2009 was performed. The presence of AVN was assessed according to Salter's classification system. Eighty-two affected hips in 70 children with an average age of 10 months at closed reduction (range 1-31 months) and 5 years (range 2-19 years) of follow-up met the inclusion criteria. Twenty-nine (of 82, 35 %) affected hips developed AVN. The use of pre-reduction traction (p = 0.019) increased the risk of AVN, while preoperative Pavlik harness or brace trial (p = 0.28), presence of ossific nucleus at the time of closed reduction (p = 0.16), and adductor tenotomy (p = 0.37) were not significant factors. Laterality (right vs. left) was also not a significant risk factor (p = 0.75), but patients who underwent closed reduction for bilateral DDH were less likely to develop AVN (p = 0.027). Overall, the degree of abduction did not affect the rate of AVN (p = 0.87). However, in patients treated with closed reduction younger than 6 months of age, the rate of AVN was increased with abduction ≥50° (9/15, 60 %) compared to abduction AVN were more likely to require subsequent surgery (p = 0.034) and more likely to report a fair/poor clinical outcome (p = 0.049). The risk of AVN (35 %) following closed reduction and spica casting for DDH is high. The degree of abduction in spica casts appears to be a risk factor in patients ≤6 months old. The authors recommend that abduction in spica casts should be limited to <50° in children younger than 6 months of age. IV.

Estimating mortality risk reduction and economic benefits from controlling ozone air pollution

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Committee on Estimating Mortality Risk Reduction Benefits from Decreasing Tropospheric Ozone Exposure

2008-01-01

... in life expectancy, and to assess methods for estimating the monetary value of the reduced risk of premature death and increased life expectancy in the context of health-benefits analysis. Estimating Mortality Risk Reduction and Economic Benefits from Controlling Ozone Air Pollution details the committee's findings and posits several recommendations to address these issues.

Investigating the risk reduction potential of disaster insurance across Europe

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Surminski, Swenja; Hudson, Paul

2017-01-01

The notion that insurance can play a significant role in risk reduction has recently gained increasing attention in the wake of rising losses from natural disasters. While this notion is accepted in theory, we notice that, in practice, little is known about if and how insurance promotes efforts to

Smartphone Delivery of Mobile HIV Risk Reduction Education

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karran A. Phillips

2013-01-01

Full Text Available We sought to develop and deploy a video-based smartphone-delivered mobile HIV Risk Reduction (mHIVRR intervention to individuals in an addiction treatment clinic. We developed 3 video modules that consisted of a 10-minute HIVRR video, 11 acceptability questions, and 3 knowledge questions and deployed them as a secondary study within a larger study of ecological momentary and geographical momentary assessments. All 24 individuals who remained in the main study long enough completed the mHIVRR secondary study. All 3 videos met our a priori criteria for acceptability “as is” in the population: they achieved median scores of ≤2.5 on a 5-point Likert scale; ≤20% of the individuals gave them the most negative rating on the scale; a majority of the individuals stated that they would not prefer other formats over video-based smartphone-delivered one (all P<0.05. Additionally, all of our video modules met our a priori criteria for feasibility: ≤20% of data were missing due to participant noncompliance and ≤20% were missing due to technical failure. We concluded that video-based mHIVRR education delivered via smartphone is acceptable, feasible and may increase HIV/STD risk reduction knowledge. Future studies, with pre-intervention assessments of knowledge and random assignment, are needed to confirm these findings.

Resilience and disaster risk reduction: an etymological journey

Science.gov (United States)

Alexander, D. E.

2013-11-01

This paper examines the development over historical time of the meaning and uses of the term resilience. The objective is to deepen our understanding of how the term came to be adopted in disaster risk reduction and resolve some of the conflicts and controversies that have arisen when it has been used. The paper traces the development of resilience through the sciences, humanities, and legal and political spheres. It considers how mechanics passed the word to ecology and psychology, and how from there it was adopted by social research and sustainability science. As other authors have noted, as a concept, resilience involves some potentially serious conflicts or contradictions, for example between stability and dynamism, or between dynamic equilibrium (homeostasis) and evolution. Moreover, although the resilience concept works quite well within the confines of general systems theory, in situations in which a systems formulation inhibits rather than fosters explanation, a different interpretation of the term is warranted. This may be the case for disaster risk reduction, which involves transformation rather than preservation of the "state of the system". The article concludes that the modern conception of resilience derives benefit from a rich history of meanings and applications, but that it is dangerous - or at least potentially disappointing - to read to much into the term as a model and a paradigm.

The contribution of indigenous knowledge to disaster risk reduction activities in Zimbabwe: A big call to practitioners

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ernest Dube

2018-03-01

Full Text Available This article examined the contribution of indigenous knowledge to disaster risk reduction activities in Zimbabwe. The current discourse underrates the use of indigenous knowledge of communities by practitioners when dealing with disasters’, as the knowledge is often viewed as outdated and primitive. This study, which was conducted in 2016, sought to examine this problem through analysing the potential contribution of indigenous knowledge as a useful disaster risk reduction intervention. Tsholotsho district in Matabeleland, North province of Zimbabwe, which frequently experiences perennial devastating floods, was used as a case study. Interviews and researcher observations were used to gather data from 40 research participants. The findings were that communities understand weather patterns and could predict imminent flooding after studying trees and clouds, and the behaviours of certain animal species. Local communities also use available local resources to put structural measures in place as part of disaster risk reduction interventions. Despite this important potential, the study found that the indigenous knowledge of disaster risk reduction of the communities is often shunned by practitioners. The practitioners claim that indigenous knowledge lacks documentation, it is not found in all generational classes, it is contextualised to particular communities and the knowledge cannot be scientifically validated. The study concluded that both local communities and disaster risk reduction practitioners can benefit from the indigenous knowledge of communities. This research has the potential to benefit communities, policymakers and disaster risk reduction practitioners.

Blood Glucose Reduction by Diabetic Drugs with Minimal Hypoglycemia Risk for Cardiovascular Outcomes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Huang, Chi-Jung; Wang, Wei-Ting; Sung, Shih-Hsien

2018-01-01

of antidiabetic drugs with less hypoglycemia risk were comprehensively searched in MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Library up to January 27, 2018. Mixed-effects meta-regression analysis was conducted to explore the relationship between haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) reduction and the risk of major adverse...... concentration was 0.42% lower (median, 0.27-0.86%) for participants given antihyperglycemic agents than those given placebo. The meta-regression analysis demonstrated that HbA1c reduction was significantly associated with a decreased risk of MACE (β value, -0.39 to -0.55; P...-40%) for MACE. By contrast, the meta-regression analysis for trials using conventional agents failed to demonstrate a significant relationship between achieved HbA1c difference and MACE risk (P>0.74). CONCLUSIONS: Compared with placebo, newer T2D agents with less hypoglycemic hazard significantly reduced...

Can I Count on Getting Better? Association between Math Anxiety and Poorer Understanding of Medical Risk Reductions.

Science.gov (United States)

Rolison, Jonathan J; Morsanyi, Kinga; O'Connor, Patrick A

2016-10-01

Lower numerical ability is associated with poorer understanding of health statistics, such as risk reductions of medical treatment. For many people, despite good numeracy skills, math provokes anxiety that impedes an ability to evaluate numerical information. Math-anxious individuals also report less confidence in their ability to perform math tasks. We hypothesized that, independent of objective numeracy, math anxiety would be associated with poorer responding and lower confidence when calculating risk reductions of medical treatments. Objective numeracy was assessed using an 11-item objective numeracy scale. A 13-item self-report scale was used to assess math anxiety. In experiment 1, participants were asked to interpret the baseline risk of disease and risk reductions associated with treatment options. Participants in experiment 2 were additionally provided a graphical display designed to facilitate the processing of math information and alleviate effects of math anxiety. Confidence ratings were provided on a 7-point scale. Individuals of higher objective numeracy were more likely to respond correctly to baseline risks and risk reductions associated with treatment options and were more confident in their interpretations. Individuals who scored high in math anxiety were instead less likely to correctly interpret the baseline risks and risk reductions and were less confident in their risk calculations as well as in their assessments of the effectiveness of treatment options. Math anxiety predicted confidence levels but not correct responding when controlling for objective numeracy. The graphical display was most effective in increasing confidence among math-anxious individuals. The findings suggest that math anxiety is associated with poorer medical risk interpretation but is more strongly related to confidence in interpretations. © The Author(s) 2015.

Breast Cancer Incidence and Risk Reduction in the Hispanic Population.

Science.gov (United States)

Power, Eric J; Chin, Megan L; Haq, Mohamed M

2018-02-26

Breast cancer is the most common non-skin cancer amongst women worldwide and is the fifth leading cause of cancer-related mortality overall. It is also the foremost reason for cancer-related mortality in Hispanic females in the United States (US). Although the current incidence of breast cancer is significantly lower in Hispanics compared to that of non-Hispanic Whites (NHW) and Blacks, (91.9, 128.1, and 124.3 per 100,000, respectively, annually), this may increase if Hispanics develop similar lifestyle behaviors to other American women, in categories such as weight management, age at first birth, number of children, and breastfeeding habits. Stage-for-stage mortality for Hispanics is similar to NHWs, but the mortality rate is not declining as rapidly in this ethnic group. Hispanic women share many of the same risk factors for developing breast cancer as NHWs and Blacks. This suggests that many of the risk reduction strategies used in other racial populations may also benefit this group. Providing education about breast cancer and implementing risk reduction strategies in culturally-aware environments could help keep incidence low and reduce cancer-related mortality. Since Hispanics are the largest minority group in the US, this could have a significant impact on the incidence and mortality nationally.

Health risk reduction programs in employer-sponsored health plans: Part II-law and ethics.

Science.gov (United States)

Rothstein, Mark A; Harrell, Heather L

2009-08-01

We sought to examine the legal and ethical implications of workplace health risk reduction programs (HRRPs) using health risk assessments, individually focused risk reduction, and financial incentives to promote compliance. We conducted a literature review, analyzed relevant statutes and regulations, and considered the effects of these programs on employee health privacy. A variety of laws regulate HRRPs, and there is little evidence that employer-sponsored HRRPs violate these provisions; infringement on individual health privacy is more difficult to assess. Although current laws permit a wide range of employer health promotion activities, HRRPs also may entail largely unquantifiable costs to employee privacy and related interests.

Health Risk Reduction Programs in Employer-Sponsored Health Plans: Part II—Law and Ethics

Science.gov (United States)

Rothstein, Mark A.; Harrell, Heather L.

2011-01-01

Objective We sought to examine the legal and ethical implications of workplace health risk reduction programs (HRRPs) using health risk assessments, individually focused risk reduction, and financial incentives to promote compliance. Methods We conducted a literature review, analyzed relevant statutes and regulations, and considered the effects of these programs on employee health privacy. Results A variety of laws regulate HRRPs, and there is little evidence that employer-sponsored HRRPs violate these provisions; infringement on individual health privacy is more difficult to assess. Conclusion Although current laws permit a wide range of employer health promotion activities, HRRPs also may entail largely unquantifiable costs to employee privacy and related interests. PMID:19625971

Walking versus running for hypertension, cholesterol, and diabetes mellitus risk reduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Paul T; Thompson, Paul D

2013-05-01

To test whether equivalent energy expenditure by moderate-intensity (eg, walking) and vigorous-intensity exercise (eg, running) provides equivalent health benefits. We used the National Runners' (n=33 060) and Walkers' (n=15 945) Health Study cohorts to examine the effect of differences in exercise mode and thereby exercise intensity on coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors. Baseline expenditure (metabolic equivant hours per day [METh/d]) was compared with self-reported, physician-diagnosed incident hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes mellitus, and CHD during 6.2 years follow-up. Running significantly decreased the risks for incident hypertension by 4.2% (Pdiabetes mellitus by 12.1% (Phypertension; and (3) 43.5%, 44.1%, 47.7%, and 68.2% from running, and 34.1%, 44.2% and 23.6% from walking for diabetes mellitus (walking >5.4 METh/d excluded for too few cases). The risk reductions were not significantly different for running than walking for diabetes mellitus (P=0.94), hypertension (P=0.06), or CHD (P=0.26), and only marginally greater for walking than running for hypercholesterolemia (P=0.04). Equivalent energy expenditures by moderate (walking) and vigorous (running) exercise produced similar risk reductions for hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes mellitus, and possibly CHD.

Smoke and mirrors: Limited value of relative risk reductions for assessing the benefits of disease-modifying therapies for multiple sclerosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Zakaria, Magd

2015-05-01

A reduction in relapse rate is the main primary outcome in most clinical trials in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS), with the effect of a treatment commonly expressed as relative risk reduction for this outcome. Physicians often assume that a drug with a higher relative risk reduction demonstrated in one trial is more effective than a drug with a lower relative risk reduction in another, and may pass this idea on to younger physicians and to patients. The use of the relative risk reduction as a measure of drug efficacy can be misleading, as it depends on the nature of the population studied: a treatment effect characterized by a lower relative risk reduction may be more clinically meaningful than one with a higher relative risk reduction. This concept is especially important with regard to clinical trials in patients with MS, where relapse rates in placebo groups have been declining in recent decades. Direct, head-to-head comparisons are the only way to compare the efficacy of the different treatments for MS. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development and Validation of a Model to Predict Absolute Vascular Risk Reduction by Moderate-Intensity Statin Therapy in Individual Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: The Anglo Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial, Antihypertensive and Lipid-Lowering Treatment to Prevent Heart Attack Trial, and Collaborative Atorvastatin Diabetes Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaasenbrood, Lotte; Poulter, Neil R; Sever, Peter S; Colhoun, Helen M; Livingstone, Shona J; Boekholdt, S Matthijs; Pressel, Sara L; Davis, Barry R; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Visseren, Frank L J

2016-05-01

In this study, we aimed to translate the average relative effect of statin therapy from trial data to the individual patient with type 2 diabetes mellitus by developing and validating a model to predict individualized absolute risk reductions (ARR) of cardiovascular events. Data of 2725 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus from the Lipid Lowering Arm of the Anglo Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial (ASCOT-LLA) study (atorvastatin 10 mg versus placebo) were used for model derivation. The model was based on 8 clinical predictors including treatment allocation (statin/placebo). Ten-year individualized ARR on major cardiovascular events by statin therapy were calculated for each patient by subtracting the estimated on-treatment risk from the estimated off-treatment risk. Predicted 10-year ARR by statin therapy was 4% (median ARR, 3.2%; interquartile range, 2.5%-4.3%; 95% confidence interval for 3.2% ARR, -1.4% to 6.8%). Addition of treatment interactions did not improve model performance. Therefore, the wide distribution in ARR was a consequence of the underlying distribution in cardiovascular risk enrolled in these trials. External validation of the model was performed in data from the Antihypertensive and Lipid-Lowering Treatment to Prevent Heart Attack Trial (ALLHAT-LLT; pravastatin 40 mg versus usual care) and Collaborative Atorvastatin Diabetes Study (CARDS; atorvastatin 10 mg versus placebo) of 3878 and 2838 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, respectively. Model calibration was adequate in both external data sets, discrimination was moderate (ALLHAT-LLT: c-statistics, 0.64 [95% confidence interval, 0.61-0.67] and CARDS: 0.68 [95% confidence interval, 0.64-0.72]). ARRs of major cardiovascular events by statin therapy can be accurately estimated for individual patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus using a model based on routinely available patient characteristics. There is a wide distribution in ARR that may complement informed decision making. URL: http

Perceptions of farmers on health risks and risk reduction measures in wastewater-irrigated urban vegetable farming in Ghana

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Keraita, Bernard; Drechsel, Pay; Konradsen, Flemming

2008-01-01

, authorities and the general public, especially if they had some incentives. These findings demonstrate the need to involve farmers as early as possible in intervention projects especially in informal farming practices, like urban agriculture, where restrictions are difficult to implement. This will ensure......Most irrigation water used in urban vegetable farming in Ghana is contaminated with untreated wastewater. This poses health risks to farmers and consumers. As part of a study to explore options for health risk reduction, this paper summarizes farmers' perceptions on health risks and possible risk...

Valuing Mortality Risk Reductions for Environmental Policy: A White Paper (1999)

Science.gov (United States)

This white paper addresses current and recent U.S. EPA practices regarding the valuation of mortality risk reductions, focusing especially on empirical estimates of the “value of a statistical life” (VSL) from stated preference and hedonic wage studies.

Prediction of absolute risk of fragility fracture at 10 years in a Spanish population: validation of the WHO FRAX ™ tool in Spain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Solà Sílvia

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Age-related bone loss is asymptomatic, and the morbidity of osteoporosis is secondary to the fractures that occur. Common sites of fracture include the spine, hip, forearm and proximal humerus. Fractures at the hip incur the greatest morbidity and mortality and give rise to the highest direct costs for health services. Their incidence increases exponentially with age. Independently changes in population demography, the age - and sex- specific incidence of osteoporotic fractures appears to be increasing in developing and developed countries. This could mean more than double the expected burden of osteoporotic fractures in the next 50 years. Methods/Design To assess the predictive power of the WHO FRAX™ tool to identify the subjects with the highest absolute risk of fragility fracture at 10 years in a Spanish population, a predictive validation study of the tool will be carried out. For this purpose, the participants recruited by 1999 will be assessed. These were referred to scan-DXA Department from primary healthcare centres, non hospital and hospital consultations. Study population: Patients attended in the national health services integrated into a FRIDEX cohort with at least one Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA measurement and one extensive questionnaire related to fracture risk factors. Measurements: At baseline bone mineral density measurement using DXA, clinical fracture risk factors questionnaire, dietary calcium intake assessment, history of previous fractures, and related drugs. Follow up by telephone interview to know fragility fractures in the 10 years with verification in electronic medical records and also to know the number of falls in the last year. The absolute risk of fracture will be estimated using the FRAX™ tool from the official web site. Discussion Since more than 10 years ago numerous publications have recognised the importance of other risk factors for new osteoporotic fractures in addition to

The effectiveness of coral reefs for coastal hazard risk reduction and adaptation

Science.gov (United States)

Ferrario, Filippo; Beck, Michael W.; Storlazzi, Curt D.; Micheli, Fiorenza; Shepard, Christine C.; Airoldi, Laura

2014-01-01

The world’s coastal zones are experiencing rapid development and an increase in storms and flooding. These hazards put coastal communities at heightened risk, which may increase with habitat loss. Here we analyse globally the role and cost effectiveness of coral reefs in risk reduction. Meta-analyses reveal that coral reefs provide substantial protection against natural hazards by reducing wave energy by an average of 97%. Reef crests alone dissipate most of this energy (86%). There are 100 million or more people who may receive risk reduction benefits from reefs or bear hazard mitigation and adaptation costs if reefs are degraded. We show that coral reefs can provide comparable wave attenuation benefits to artificial defences such as breakwaters, and reef defences can be enhanced cost effectively. Reefs face growing threats yet there is opportunity to guide adaptation and hazard mitigation investments towards reef restoration to strengthen this first line of coastal defence.

Effectiveness of a fall-risk reduction programme for inpatient rehabilitation after stroke.

Science.gov (United States)

Goljar, Nika; Globokar, Daniel; Puzić, Nataša; Kopitar, Natalija; Vrabič, Maja; Ivanovski, Matic; Vidmar, Gaj

2016-09-01

To evaluate effectiveness of fall-risk-assessment-based fall prevention for stroke rehabilitation inpatients. A consecutive series of 232 patients admitted for the first time to a subacute stroke-rehabilitation ward during 2010-2011 was studied in detail. The Assessment Sheet for Fall Prediction in Stroke Inpatients (ASFPSI by Nakagawa et al.) was used to assess fall-risk upon admission. Association of ASFPSI score and patient characteristics with actual falls was statistically tested. Yearly incidence of falls per 1000 hospital days (HD) was retrospectively audited for the 2006-2014 period to evaluate effectiveness of fall-risk reduction measures. The observed incidence of falls over the detailed-study-period was 3.0/1000 HD; 39% of the fallers fell during the first week after admission. ASFPSI score was not significantly associated with falls. Longer hospital stay, left body-side affected and non-extreme FIM score (55-101) were associated with higher odds of fall. Introduction of fall-risk reduction measures followed by compulsory fall-risk assessment lead to incidence of falls dropping from 7.1/1000 HD in 2006 to 2.8/1000 HD in 2011 and remaining at that level until 2014. The fall-risk-assessment-based measures appear to have led to decreasing falls risk among post-stroke rehabilitation inpatients classified as being at high risk of falls. The fall prevention programme as a whole was successful. Patients with non-extreme level of functional independence should receive enhanced fall prevention. Implications for Rehabilitation Recognising the fall risk upon the patient's admission is essential for preventing falls in rehabilitation wards. Assessing the fall risk is a team tasks and combines information from various sources. Assessing fall risk in stroke patients using the assessment sheet by Nakagawa et al. immediately upon admission systematically draws attention to the risk of falls in each individual patient.

Towards improved public awareness for climate related disaster risk reduction in South Africa: A Participatory Development Communication perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tigere Chagutah

2009-04-01

Full Text Available Southern Africa has frequently been struck by damaging climate hazards which increasingly continue to threaten sustainable development efforts. Ominously, climate models predict that the incidence of major ‘wet’ events, such as floods and cyclones will increase in frequency against the background of a changing climate. Unfortunately, local mechanisms for communicating and raising public awareness of the consequent risks and appropriate risk reduction options remain weak. At the core of policy responses to the threat posed by climate related hazards, the South African government has adopted a disaster risk reduction approach to disaster management. This article details how, among many other measures to limit the adverse impacts of natural hazards, South Africa’s National Disaster Management Framework calls for the implementation of effective public awareness activities to increase the knowledge among communities of the risks they face and what risk-minimising actions they can take. Emphasis is laid on the importance of information provision and knowledge building among at-risk communities. Citing established theories and strategies, the author proposes a participatory development communication approach through Development Support Communication strategies for the provision of disaster risk reduction public awareness activities by government and other disaster risk reduction role-players in South Africa. By way of a review of completed studies and literature, the article provides guidance on the planning and execution of successful public communication campaigns and also discusses the constraints of communication campaigns as an intervention for comprehensive disaster risk reduction.

A method for determining weights for excess relative risk and excess absolute risk when applied in the calculation of lifetime risk of cancer from radiation exposure

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Walsh, Linda [Federal Office for Radiation Protection, Department of Radiation Protection and Health, Oberschleissheim (Germany); University of Manchester, The Faculty of Medical and Human Sciences, Manchester (United Kingdom); Schneider, Uwe [University of Zurich, Vetsuisse Faculty, Zurich (Switzerland); Radiotherapy Hirslanden AG, Aarau (Switzerland)

2013-03-15

Radiation-related risks of cancer can be transported from one population to another population at risk, for the purpose of calculating lifetime risks from radiation exposure. Transfer via excess relative risks (ERR) or excess absolute risks (EAR) or a mixture of both (i.e., from the life span study (LSS) of Japanese atomic bomb survivors) has been done in the past based on qualitative weighting. Consequently, the values of the weights applied and the method of application of the weights (i.e., as additive or geometric weighted means) have varied both between reports produced at different times by the same regulatory body and also between reports produced at similar times by different regulatory bodies. Since the gender and age patterns are often markedly different between EAR and ERR models, it is useful to have an evidence-based method for determining the relative goodness of fit of such models to the data. This paper identifies a method, using Akaike model weights, which could aid expert judgment and be applied to help to achieve consistency of approach and quantitative evidence-based results in future health risk assessments. The results of applying this method to recent LSS cancer incidence models are that the relative EAR weighting by cancer solid cancer site, on a scale of 0-1, is zero for breast and colon, 0.02 for all solid, 0.03 for lung, 0.08 for liver, 0.15 for thyroid, 0.18 for bladder and 0.93 for stomach. The EAR weighting for female breast cancer increases from 0 to 0.3, if a generally observed change in the trend between female age-specific breast cancer incidence rates and attained age, associated with menopause, is accounted for in the EAR model. Application of this method to preferred models from a study of multi-model inference from many models fitted to the LSS leukemia mortality data, results in an EAR weighting of 0. From these results it can be seen that lifetime risk transfer is most highly weighted by EAR only for stomach cancer. However

Risk reduction and TQM: A corporate culture of continuous improvement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nau, D.C.

1992-01-01

A company supplying products and services to the nuclear industry that implements a cultural commitment to continuous improvement, in addition to providing higher quality products and services, also represents a significant reduction in operational risk to that industry. The implementation of a culture of total quality management (TQM), initiated by Sorrento Electronics (SE) in 1989, involves total commitment to the basic TQM principles: continuous improvement, people performing the work are the best sources of how to do it better, and employees must be empowered to make the improvements. What this means to the nuclear industry is a significant reduction in operational risk through: (1) products based on simpler, standardized, proven designs with established operational track records, enhancing confidence that they will perform as expected; (2) the highest confidence that products and supporting documentation are delivered with zero defects; (3) critical power plant schedules can be supported through the shortest possible equipment delivery times; (4) highly motivated employees with extremely positive attitudes, working together in cross-functional teams, virtually eliminate the possibility of deliberate product tampering or sabotage

Near threshold absolute TDCS: First results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roesel, T.; Schlemmer, P.; Roeder, J.; Frost, L.; Jung, K.; Ehrhardt, H.

1992-01-01

A new method, and first results for an impact energy 2 eV above the threshold of ionisation of helium, are presented for the measurement of absolute triple differential cross sections (TDCS) in a crossed beam experiment. The method is based upon measurement of beam/target overlap densities using known absolute total ionisation cross sections and of detection efficiencies using known absolute double differential cross sections (DDCS). For the present work the necessary absolute DDCS for 1 eV electrons had also to be measured. Results are presented for several different coplanar kinematics and are compared with recent DWBA calculations. (orig.)

Absolute entropy of ions in methanol

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abakshin, V.A.; Kobenin, V.A.; Krestov, G.A.

1978-01-01

By measuring the initial thermoelectromotive forces of chains with bromo-silver electrodes in tetraalkylammonium bromide solutions the absolute entropy of bromide-ion in methanol is determined in the 298.15-318.15 K range. The anti Ssub(Brsup(-))sup(0) = 9.8 entropy units value is used for calculation of the absolute partial molar entropy of alkali metal ions and halogenide ions. It has been found that, absolute entropy of Cs + =12.0 entropy units, I - =14.0 entropy units. The obtained ion absolute entropies in methanol at 298.15 K within 1-2 entropy units is in an agreement with published data

The effect of risk perception on public preferences and willingness to pay for reductions in the health risks posed by toxic cyanobacterial blooms.

Science.gov (United States)

Hunter, Peter D; Hanley, Nick; Czajkowski, Mikołaj; Mearns, Kathryn; Tyler, Andrew N; Carvalho, Laurence; Codd, Geoffrey A

2012-06-01

Mass populations of toxin-producing cyanobacteria are an increasingly common occurrence in inland and coastal waters used for recreational purposes. These mass populations pose serious risks to human and animal health and impose potentially significant economic costs on society. In this study, we used contingent valuation (CV) methods to elicit public willingness to pay (WTP) for reductions in the morbidity risks posed by blooms of toxin-producing cyanobacteria in Loch Leven, Scotland. We found that 55% of respondents (68% excluding protest voters) were willing to pay for a reduction in the number of days per year (from 90, to either 45 or 0 days) that cyanobacteria pose a risk to human health at Loch Leven. The mean WTP for a risk reduction was UK£9.99-12.23/household/year estimated using a logistic spike model. In addition, using the spike model and a simultaneous equations model to control for endogeneity bias, we found the respondents' WTP was strongly dependent on socio-demographic characteristics, economic status and usage of the waterbody, but also individual-specific attitudes and perceptions towards health risks. This study demonstrates that anticipated health risk reductions are an important nonmarket benefit of improving water quality in recreational waters and should be accounted for in future cost-benefit analyses such as those being undertaken under the auspices of the European Union's Water Framework Directive, but also that such values depend on subjective perceptions of water-related health risks and general attitudes towards the environment. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Disaster Risk Reduction through school learners’ awareness and preparedness

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Takalani S. Rambau

2012-11-01

Full Text Available In 2006, the ISDR (International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (2007 initiated a campaign called Disaster Risk Reduction Begins at School to encourage the integration of disaster risk education into school curricula in countries vulnerable to disasters. A study was initiated to determine how education, in particular curriculum development and teaching, contributes to South African learners’ hazard awareness and disaster preparedness. Mixed method research (consisting of questionnaires, interviews and document reviews was done to collect data. 150 educators from Gauteng, the Western Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, North West and the Eastern Cape completed questionnaires. Five curriculum coordinators, three disaster specialists and two disaster lecturers were interviewed to record their perspectives. The first finding of the study was that the majority of educators, disaster specialists and curriculum coordinators identified floods, fire, droughts, epidemics, road accidents and storms as the most prevalent disasters in the country. The second finding from the literature and empirical data collection revealed that South African communities, particularly people residing in informal settlements and other poor areas, are more vulnerable to disasters than their counterparts in more affluent areas. The third finding of the study was that teaching learners about hazards and disasters is vital and must be expanded.

riskRegression

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ozenne, Brice; Sørensen, Anne Lyngholm; Scheike, Thomas

2017-01-01

In the presence of competing risks a prediction of the time-dynamic absolute risk of an event can be based on cause-specific Cox regression models for the event and the competing risks (Benichou and Gail, 1990). We present computationally fast and memory optimized C++ functions with an R interface...... for predicting the covariate specific absolute risks, their confidence intervals, and their confidence bands based on right censored time to event data. We provide explicit formulas for our implementation of the estimator of the (stratified) baseline hazard function in the presence of tied event times. As a by...... functionals. The software presented here is implemented in the riskRegression package....

Preferences for breast cancer risk reduction among BRCA1/BRCA2 mutation carriers: a discrete-choice experiment.

Science.gov (United States)

Liede, Alexander; Mansfield, Carol A; Metcalfe, Kelly A; Price, Melanie A; Snyder, Carrie; Lynch, Henry T; Friedman, Sue; Amelio, Justyna; Posner, Joshua; Narod, Steven A; Lindeman, Geoffrey J; Evans, D Gareth

2017-09-01

Unaffected women who carry BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations face difficult choices about reducing their breast cancer risk. Understanding their treatment preferences could help us improve patient counseling and inform drug trials. The objective was to explore preferences for various risk-reducing options among women with germline BRCA1/2 mutations using a discrete-choice experiment survey and to compare expressed preferences with actual behaviors. A discrete-choice experiment survey was designed wherein women choose between hypothetical treatments to reduce breast cancer risk. The hypothetical treatments were characterized by the extent of breast cancer risk reduction, treatment duration, impact on fertility, hormone levels, risk of uterine cancer, and ease and mode of administration. Data were analyzed using a random-parameters logit model. Women were also asked to express their preference between surgical and chemoprevention options and to report on their actual risk-reduction actions. Women aged 25-55 years with germline BRCA1/2 mutations who were unaffected with breast or ovarian cancer were recruited through research registries at five clinics and a patient advocacy group. Between January 2015 and March 2016, 622 women completed the survey. Breast cancer risk reduction was the most important consideration expressed, followed by maintaining fertility. Among the subset of women who wished to have children in future, the ability to maintain fertility was the most important factor, followed by the extent of risk reduction. Many more women said they would take a chemoprevention drug than had actually taken chemoprevention. Women with BRCA1/2 mutations indicated strong preferences for breast cancer risk reduction and maintaining fertility. The expressed desire to have a safe chemoprevention drug available to them was not met by current chemoprevention options.

Levelized cost-risk reduction prioritization of waste disposal options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilkinson, V.K.; Young, J.M.

1992-01-01

The prioritization of solid waste disposal options in terms of reduced risk to workers, the public, and the environment has recently generated considerable governmental and public interest. In this paper we address the development of a methodology to establish priorities for waste disposal options, such as incineration, landfills, long-term storage, waste minimization, etc. The study is one result of an overall project to develop methodologies for Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) of non-reactor nuclear facilities for the US Department of Energy. Option preferences are based on a levelized cost-risk reduction analysis. Option rankings are developed as functions of disposal option cost and timing, relative long- and short-term risks, and possible accident scenarios. We examine the annual costs and risks for each option over a large number of years. Risk, in this paper, is defined in terms of annual fatalities (both prompt and long-term) and environmental restoration costs that might result from either an accidental release or long-term exposure to both plant workers and the public near the site or facility. We use event timing to weigh both costs and risks; near-term costs and risks are discounted less than future expenditures and fatalities. This technique levels the timing of cash flows and benefits by converting future costs and benefits to present value costs and benefits. We give an example Levelized Cost-Benefit Analysis of incinerator location options to demonstrate the methodology and required data

A practical approach to assess depression risk and to guide risk reduction strategies in later life.

Science.gov (United States)

Almeida, Osvaldo P; Alfonso, Helman; Pirkis, Jane; Kerse, Ngaire; Sim, Moira; Flicker, Leon; Snowdon, John; Draper, Brian; Byrne, Gerard; Goldney, Robert; Lautenschlager, Nicola T; Stocks, Nigel; Scazufca, Marcia; Huisman, Martijn; Araya, Ricardo; Pfaff, Jon

2011-03-01

Many factors have been associated with the onset and maintenance of depressive symptoms in later life, although this knowledge is yet to be translated into significant health gains for the population. This study gathered information about common modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors for depression with the aim of developing a practical probabilistic model of depression that can be used to guide risk reduction strategies. A cross-sectional study was undertaken of 20,677 community-dwelling Australians aged 60 years or over in contact with their general practitioner during the preceding 12 months. Prevalent depression (minor or major) according to the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) assessment was the main outcome of interest. Other measured exposures included self-reported age, gender, education, loss of mother or father before age 15 years, physical or sexual abuse before age 15 years, marital status, financial stress, social support, smoking and alcohol use, physical activity, obesity, diabetes, hypertension, and prevalent cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases and cancer. The mean age of participants was 71.7 ± 7.6 years and 57.9% were women. Depression was present in 1665 (8.0%) of our subjects. Multivariate logistic regression showed depression was independently associated with age older than 75 years, childhood adverse experiences, adverse lifestyle practices (smoking, risk alcohol use, physical inactivity), intermediate health hazards (obesity, diabetes and hypertension), comorbid medical conditions (clinical history of coronary heart disease, stroke, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, emphysema or cancers), and social or financial strain. We stratified the exposures to build a matrix that showed that the probability of depression increased progressively with the accumulation of risk factors, from less than 3% for those with no adverse factors to more than 80% for people reporting the maximum number of risk factors. Our

A text message intervention for alcohol risk reduction among community college students: TMAP.

Science.gov (United States)

Bock, Beth C; Barnett, Nancy P; Thind, Herpreet; Rosen, Rochelle; Walaska, Kristen; Traficante, Regina; Foster, Robert; Deutsch, Chris; Fava, Joseph L; Scott-Sheldon, Lori A J

2016-12-01

Students at community colleges comprise nearly half of all U.S. college students and show higher risk of heavy drinking and related consequences compared to students at 4-year colleges, but no alcohol safety programs currently target this population. To examine the feasibility, acceptability, and preliminary efficacy of an alcohol risk-reduction program delivered through text messaging designed for community college (CC) students. Heavy drinking adult CC students (N=60) were enrolled and randomly assigned to the six-week active intervention (Text Message Alcohol Program: TMAP) or a control condition of general motivational (not alcohol related) text messages. TMAP text messages consisted of alcohol facts, strategies to limit alcohol use and related risks, and motivational messages. Assessments were conducted at baseline, week 6 (end of treatment) and week 12 (follow up). Most participants (87%) completed all follow up assessments. Intervention messages received an average rating of 6.8 (SD=1.5) on a 10-point scale. At week six, TMAP participants were less likely than controls to report heavy drinking and negative alcohol consequences. The TMAP group also showed significant increases in self-efficacy to resist drinking in high risk situations between baseline and week six, with no such increase among controls. Results were maintained through the week 12 follow up. The TMAP alcohol risk reduction program was feasible and highly acceptable indicated by high retention rates through the final follow up assessment and good ratings for the text message content. Reductions in multiple outcomes provide positive indications of intervention efficacy. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A Dutch Perspective on Coastal Louisiana Flood Risk Reduction and Landscape Stabilization

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Dijkman, Jos

2007-01-01

.... The project was aimed at identifying options for the long-term reduction of flood risks and landscape stabilization in Planning Areas I and 2 in Louisiana, in the framework of the Louisiana Coastal...

Theoretical framework to study exercise motivation for breast cancer risk reduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Wood, Maureen E

2008-01-01

To identify an appropriate theoretical framework to study exercise motivation for breast cancer risk reduction among high-risk women. An extensive review of the literature was conducted to gather relevant information pertaining to the Health Promotion Model, self-determination theory, social cognitive theory, Health Belief Model, Transtheoretical Model, theory of planned behavior, and protection motivation theory. An iterative approach was used to summarize the literature related to exercise motivation within each theoretical framework. Protection motivation theory could be used to examine the effects of perceived risk and self-efficacy in motivating women to exercise to facilitate health-related behavioral change. Evidence-based research within a chosen theoretical model can aid practitioners when making practical recommendations to reduce breast cancer risk.

Impact of Lifestyle and Metformin Interventions on the Risk of Progression to Diabetes and Regression to Normal Glucose Regulation in Overweight or Obese People With Impaired Glucose Regulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Herman, William H; Pan, Qing; Edelstein, Sharon L; Mather, Kieren J; Perreault, Leigh; Barrett-Connor, Elizabeth; Dabelea, Dana M; Horton, Edward; Kahn, Steven E; Knowler, William C; Lorenzo, Carlos; Pi-Sunyer, Xavier; Venditti, Elizabeth; Ye, Wen

2017-12-01

Both lifestyle and metformin interventions can delay or prevent progression to type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) in people with impaired glucose regulation, but there is considerable interindividual variation in the likelihood of receiving benefit. Understanding an individual's 3-year risk of progressing to DM and regressing to normal glucose regulation (NGR) might facilitate benefit-based tailored treatment. We used the values of 19 clinical variables measured at the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) baseline evaluation and Cox proportional hazards models to assess the 3-year risk of progression to DM and regression to NGR separately for DPP lifestyle, metformin, and placebo participants who were adherent to the interventions. Lifestyle participants who lost ≥5% of their initial body weight at 6 months and metformin and placebo participants who reported taking ≥80% of their prescribed medication at the 6-month follow-up were defined as adherent. Eleven of 19 clinical variables measured at baseline predicted progression to DM, and 6 of 19 predicted regression to NGR. Compared with adherent placebo participants at lowest risk of developing diabetes, participants at lowest risk of developing diabetes who adhered to a lifestyle intervention had an 8% absolute risk reduction (ARR) of developing diabetes and a 35% greater absolute likelihood of reverting to NGR. Participants at lowest risk of developing diabetes who adhered to a metformin intervention had no reduction in their risk of developing diabetes and a 17% greater absolute likelihood of reverting to NGR. Participants at highest risk of developing DM who adhered to a lifestyle intervention had a 39% ARR of developing diabetes and a 24% greater absolute likelihood of reverting to NGR, whereas those who adhered to the metformin intervention had a 25% ARR of developing diabetes and an 11% greater absolute likelihood of reverting to NGR. Unlike our previous analyses that sought to explain population risk, these

Beyond the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction: Vulnerability Reduction as a Challenge Involving Historical and Traditional Buildings

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Valentina Pica

2018-03-01

Full Text Available In observance of the international procedures on disaster risk management, and in particular the Sendai Framework (2015, this research focuses on how more specific procedures related to it can be made effective in the treatment of historic areas worldwide. Disaster risk management is now viewed as being important in the context of historic buildings, as they are strongly related to cultural identity as well as to resilient communities, and can have a large impact on local economies. The study points out that cultural heritage might be the core field of action for capacity building in less vulnerable places, and that its protection is one of the main tasks to attend to in order to achieve the goal of vulnerability reduction. The paper also aims to answer questions such as: which actions could allow better protection of cultural heritage? Is it correct to involve local communities in reconstruction plans by capacity building and self-managed projects? How have reconstruction plans been managed recently worldwide? By further developing the applicability of the priority areas of action of the Sendai Framework, the research illustrates critical points and best practices that will hopefully support disaster risk reduction based on strategic management and remote monitoring, involving technologies and social participation.

Monitoring environmental burden reduction from household waste prevention.

Science.gov (United States)

Matsuda, Takeshi; Hirai, Yasuhiro; Asari, Misuzu; Yano, Junya; Miura, Takahiro; Ii, Ryota; Sakai, Shin-Ichi

2018-01-01

In this study, the amount of prevented household waste in Kyoto city was quantified using three methods. Subsequently, the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction by waste prevention was calculated in order to monitor the impact of waste prevention. The methods of quantification were "relative change from baseline year (a)," "absolute change from potential waste generation (b)," and "absolute amount of activities (c)." Method (a) was popular for measuring waste prevention, but method (b) was the original approach to determine the absolute amount of waste prevention by estimating the potential waste generation. Method (c) also provided the absolute value utilizing the information of activities. Methods (b) and (c) enable the evaluation of the waste prevention activities with a similar baseline for recycling. Methods (b) and (c) gave significantly higher GHG reductions than method (a) because of the difference in baseline between them. Therefore, setting a baseline is very important for evaluating waste prevention. In practice, when focusing on the monitoring of a specific policy or campaign, method (a) is an appropriate option. On the other hand, when comparing the total impact of waste prevention to that of recycling, methods (b) and (c) should be applied. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of severe accident risks and the potential for risk reduction: Surry Power Station, Unit 1: Draft report for comment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benjamin, A.S.; Boyd, G.J.; Kunsman, D.M.; Murfin, W.B.; Williams, D.C.

1987-02-01

The Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a rebaselining of the risks to the public from a particular pressurized water reactor with a subatmospheric containment (Surry, Unit 1). Emphasis was placed on determining the magnitude and character of the uncertainties, rather than focusing on a point estimate. The risk-reduction potential of a set of proposed safety option backfits was also studied, and their costs and benefits were also evaluated. It was found that the risks from internal events are generally lower than previously evaluated in the Reactor Safety Study (RSS). However, certain unresolved issues (such as direct containment heating) caused the top of the uncertainty band to appear at a level that is comparable with the RSS point estimate. None of the postulated safety options appears to be cost effective for the Surry power plant. This work supports the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's assessment of severe accidents in NUREG-1150

Evaluation of severe accident risks and the potential for risk reduction: Surry Power Station, Unit 1: Draft report for comment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Benjamin, A.S.; Boyd, G.J.; Kunsman, D.M.; Murfin, W.B.; Williams, D.C.

1987-02-01

The Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a rebaselining of the risks to the public from a particular pressurized water reactor with a subatmospheric containment (Surry, Unit 1). Emphasis was placed on determining the magnitude and character of the uncertainties, rather than focusing on a point estimate. The risk-reduction potential of a set of proposed safety option backfits was also studied, and their costs and benefits were also evaluated. It was found that the risks from internal events are generally lower than previously evaluated in the Reactor Safety Study (RSS). However, certain unresolved issues (such as direct containment heating) caused the top of the uncertainty band to appear at a level that is comparable with the RSS point estimate. None of the postulated safety options appears to be cost effective for the Surry power plant. This work supports the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's assessment of severe accidents in NUREG-1150.

Reduction of risk level as one of the main challenges of development in covered karst regions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Makhnatov Stanislav A.

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The paper describes the experience of application of the residual karst risk concept, and presents coefficients of karst risk level reduction for planning constructional karst-protection. Practical experience of design for karstified territories of Nizhny Novgorod region demonstrates that special research of the interaction between constructions and foundations is required. Numerous accidents can serve vivid examples proving the need. I2n this situation it is important to approach the issue of safety in a proper way, taking into account probable economic, environmental and social damage. The problem can be solved by introduction of the karst risk level parameter, which permits to take into consideration constructional characteristics of objects (design philosophy, service life, as well as conditions and mechanisms of interaction between the foundation and the construction (sinkholes, local subsidence, karst-suffosion deformations, etc.. The importance of risk reduction is highlighted by current Russian Federal laws. Depending on karst risk level adequate karst-protection should be performed. For building projects, reduction of karst risk to a permissible level (conventionally equal to 1 is one of the most important research challenges of the karstified territories development, and its solution permits to plan appropriate karst protection measures.

Merging Cultural Heritage Assessments with Risk Reduction and Disaster Recovery

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bojsen, Ann Kristina Mikkelsen

heritage. These limitations serve as motivation for the introduction of the ACTOR framework (Assessing Cultural Threats, Obstacles and Resilience) ACTOR aims at merging cultural heritage assessments with risk reduction and disaster recovery, and provide disaster management students with a learning......Abstract There is a general professional consensus that vulnerability and risk assessments are crucial tasks in any serious attempt to substantially reduce disaster losses and enhance the reconciliation or recovery in the post event phase. However, cultural heritage is often considered...... as an overarching element that should be assessed, rather than a permanent key component of the assessments. Research in disaster management noticeably illustrates how cultural heritage is increasingly at risk from disasters caused by natural and human-made hazards, as well as the effects of climate change. Still...

Historic Landslide Data Combined with Sentinel Satellite Data to Improve Modelling for Disaster Risk Reduction

Science.gov (United States)

Bye, B. L.; Kontoes, C.; Catarino, N.; De Lathouwer, B.; Concalves, P.; Meyer-Arnek, J.; Mueller, A.; Kraft, C.; Grosso, N.; Goor, E.; Voidrot, M. F.; Trypitsidis, A.

2017-12-01

Landslides are geohazards potentially resulting in disasters. Landslides both vary enormously in their distribution in space and time. The surface deformation varies considerably from one type of instability to another. Individual ground instabilities may have a common trigger (extreme rainfall, earthquake), and therefore occur alongside many equivalent occurrences over a large area. This means that they can have a significant regional impact demanding national and international disaster risk reduction strategies. Regional impacts require collaboration across boarders as reflected in The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015-2030). The data demands related to the SDGs are unprecedented, another factor that will require coordinated efforts at the global, regional and national levels. Data of good quality are vital for governments, international organizations, civil society, the private sector and the general public in order to make informed decisions, included for disaster risk reduction. The NextGEOSS project evolves the European vision of a user driven GEOSS data exploitation for innovation and business, relying on 3 main pillars; engaging communities of practice, delivering technological advancements, and advocating the use of GEOSS. These 3 pillars support the creation and deployment of Earth observation based innovative research activities and commercial services. In this presentation we will explain how one of the 10 NextGEOSS pilots, Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), plan to provide an enhanced multi-hazard risk assessment framework based on statistical analysis of long time series of data. Landslide events monitoring and landslides susceptibility estimation will be emphazised. Workflows will be based on models developed in the context of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service. Data envisaged to be used are: Radar SAR data; Yearly ground deformation/velocities; Historic landslide inventory; data related to topographic, geological, hydrological

NASA Propulsion Concept Studies and Risk Reduction Activities for Resource Prospector Lander

Science.gov (United States)

Trinh, Huu P.; Williams, Hunter; Burnside, Chris

2015-01-01

The trade study has led to the selection of propulsion concept with the lowest cost and net lowest risk -Government-owned, flight qualified components -Meet mission requirements although the configuration is not optimized. Risk reduction activities have provided an opportunity -Implement design improvements while development with the early-test approach. -Gain knowledge on the operation and identify operation limit -Data to anchor analytical models for future flight designs; The propulsion system cold flow tests series have provided valuable data for future design. -The pressure surge from the system priming and waterhammer within component operation limits. -Enable to optimize the ullage volume to reduce the propellant tank mass; RS-34 hot fire tests have successfully demonstrated of using the engines for the RP mission -No degradation of performance due to extended storage life of the hardware. -Enable to operate the engine for RP flight mission scenarios, outside of the qualification regime. -Provide extended data for the thermal and GNC designs. Significant progress has been made on NASA propulsion concept design and risk reductions for Resource Prospector lander.

Reduction of cancer risk by optimization of Computed Tomography head protocols: far eastern Cuban experience

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miller Clemente, R.; Adame Brooks, D.; Lores Guevara, M.; Perez Diaz, M.; Arias Garlobo, M. L.; Ortega Rodriguez, O.; Nepite Haber, R.; Grinnan Hernandez, O.; Guillama Llosas, A.

2015-01-01

The cancer risk estimation constitutes one way for the evaluation of the public health, regarding computed tomography (CT) exposures. Starting from the hypothesis that the optimization of CT protocols would reduce significantly the added cancer risk, the purpose of this research was the application of optimization strategies regarding head CT protocols, in order to reduce the factors affecting the risk of induced cancer. The applied systemic approach included technological and human components, represented by quantitative physical factors. the volumetric kerma indexes, compared with respect to standard, optimized and reference values, were evaluated with multiple means comparison method. The added cancer risk resulted from the application of the methodology for biological effects evaluation, at low doses with low Linear Energy Transfer. Human observers in all scenarios evaluated the image quality. the reduced dose was significantly lower than for standard head protocols and reference levels, where: (1) for pediatric patients, by using an Automatic Exposure Control system, a reduction of 31% compared with standard protocol and ages range of 10-14, and (2) adults, using a Bilateral Filter for images obtained at low doses of 62% from those of standard head protocol. The risk reduction was higher than 25%. The systemic approach used allows the effective identification of factors involved on cancer risk related with exposures to CT. The combination of dose modulation and image restoration with Bilateral Filter, provide a significantly reduction of cancer risk, with acceptable diagnostic image quality. (Author)

Ablation of tumor and inflammatory tissue with absolute ethanol

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Uflacker, R.; Paolini, R.M.; Nobrega, M.

Absolute ethanol was used to ablate tumors, inflammatory lesions, and end-stage nephrosclerotic kidneys in 38 patients. Thirty patients had various types of renal tumors, and 3 had chronic end-stage renal failure with malignant hypertension. One patient had a fibrosarcoma of the right leg and one had a metastatis in the humerus from a renal carcinoma. A large adrenal carcinoma was treated with absolute ethanol in a patient who had liver metastases that were ablated one year after the first procedure. An additional patient had metastatic liver disease from a non-functioning adrenal carcinoma. The remaining patient had an extensive hypervascular inflammatory lesion (tuberculosis and aspergilloma) of the right upper pulmonary lobe. In addition to ethanol, coils were introduced in one patient and Gelfoam in another. The amount of ethanol used ranged from 5 to 50 ml. Twenty-two patients suffered from considerable transient pain during ethanol injection, but sedation was necessary in only 3 of them. Skin necrosis appeared in 2 patients requiring plastic reconstruction in one of them. Two patients died within 5 days of the procedure unrelated to the ablation. Two patients presented upper gastrointestinal bleeding within 2 days of the ethanol injection and one of these died in acute renal failure. One patient suffered from left colonic infarction after left renal tumor ablation, but survived for several months. Absolute ethanol was a useful and efficient sclerosing agent causing extensive tumor destruction and marked reduction of the vascularity in tumor and inflammatory lesions, but caused an 18% complication rate.

No Absolutism Here: Harm Predicts Moral Judgment 30× Better Than Disgust-Commentary on Scott, Inbar, & Rozin (2016).

Science.gov (United States)

Gray, Kurt; Schein, Chelsea

2016-05-01

Moral absolutism is the idea that people's moral judgments are insensitive to considerations of harm. Scott, Inbar, and Rozin (2016, this issue) claim that most moral opponents to genetically modified organisms are absolutely opposed-motivated by disgust and not harm. Yet there is no evidence for moral absolutism in their data. Perceived risk/harm is the most significant predictor of moral judgments for "absolutists," accounting for 30 times more variance than disgust. Reanalyses suggest that disgust is not even a significant predictor of the moral judgments of absolutists once accounting for perceived harm and anger. Instead of revealing actual moral absolutism, Scott et al. find only empty absolutism: hypothetical, forecasted, self-reported moral absolutism. Strikingly, the moral judgments of so-called absolutists are somewhat more sensitive to consequentialist concerns than those of nonabsolutists. Mediation reanalyses reveal that moral judgments are most proximally predicted by harm and not disgust, consistent with dyadic morality. © The Author(s) 2016.

Alendronate for fracture prevention in postmenopause.

Science.gov (United States)

Holder, Kathryn K; Kerley, Sara Shelton

2008-09-01

Osteoporosis is an abnormal reduction in bone mass and bone deterioration leading to increased fracture risk. Alendronate (Fosamax) belongs to the bisphosphonate class of drugs, which act to inhibit bone resorption by interfering with the activity of osteoclasts. To assess the effectiveness of alendronate in the primary and secondary prevention of osteoporotic fractures in postmenopausal women. The authors searched Central, Medline, and EMBASE for relevant randomized controlled trials published from 1966 to 2007. The authors undertook study selection and data abstraction in duplicate. The authors performed meta-analysis of fracture outcomes using relative risks, and a relative change greater than 15 percent was considered clinically important. The authors assessed study quality through reporting of allocation concealment, blinding, and withdrawals. Eleven trials representing 12,068 women were included in the review. Relative and absolute risk reductions for the 10-mg dose were as follows. For vertebral fractures, a 45 percent relative risk reduction was found (relative risk [RR] = 0.55; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.45 to 0.67). This was significant for primary prevention, with a 45 percent relative risk reduction (RR = 0.55; 95% CI, 0.38 to 0.80) and 2 percent absolute risk reduction; and for secondary prevention, with 45 percent relative risk reduction (RR = 0.55; 95% CI, 0.43 to 0.69) and 6 percent absolute risk reduction. For nonvertebral fractures, a 16 percent relative risk reduction was found (RR = 0.84; 95% CI, 0.74 to 0.94). This was significant for secondary prevention, with a 23 percent relative risk reduction (RR = 0.77; 95% CI, 0.64 to 0.92) and a 2 percent absolute risk reduction, but not for primary prevention (RR = 0.89; 95% CI, 0.76 to 1.04). There was a 40 percent relative risk reduction in hip fractures (RR = 0.60; 95% CI, 0.40 to 0.92), but only secondary prevention was significant, with a 53 percent relative risk reduction (RR = 0.47; 95% CI

Projective absoluteness for Sacks forcing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ikegami, D.

2009-01-01

We show that Sigma(1)(3)-absoluteness for Sacks forcing is equivalent to the nonexistence of a Delta(1)(2) Bernstein set. We also show that Sacks forcing is the weakest forcing notion among all of the preorders that add a new real with respect to Sigma(1)(3) forcing absoluteness.

Forecasting Error Calculation with Mean Absolute Deviation and Mean Absolute Percentage Error

Science.gov (United States)

Khair, Ummul; Fahmi, Hasanul; Hakim, Sarudin Al; Rahim, Robbi

2017-12-01

Prediction using a forecasting method is one of the most important things for an organization, the selection of appropriate forecasting methods is also important but the percentage error of a method is more important in order for decision makers to adopt the right culture, the use of the Mean Absolute Deviation and Mean Absolute Percentage Error to calculate the percentage of mistakes in the least square method resulted in a percentage of 9.77% and it was decided that the least square method be worked for time series and trend data.

Resilience and disaster risk reduction: an etymological journey

Science.gov (United States)

Alexander, D. E.

2013-04-01

This paper examines the development over historical time of the meaning and uses of the term resilience. The objective is to deepen our understanding of how the term came to be adopted in disaster risk reduction and resolve some of the conflicts and controversies that have arisen when it has been used. The paper traces the development of resilience through the sciences, humanities, and legal and political spheres. It considers how mechanics passed the word to ecology and psychology, and how from there it was adopted by social research and sustainability science. As other authors have noted, as a concept, resilience involves some potentially serious conflicts or contradictions, for example between stability and dynamism, or between dynamic equilibrium (homeostasis) and evolution. Moreover, although the resilience concept works quite well within the confines of General Systems Theory, in situations in which a systems formulation inhibits rather than fosters explanation, a different interpretation of the term is warranted. This may be the case for disaster risk reduction, which involves transformation rather than preservation of the ''state of the system''. The article concludes that the modern conception of resilience derives benefit from a rich history of meanings and applications, but that it is dangerous - or at least potentially disappointing - to read to much into the term as a model and a paradigm. Sagitta in lapidem numquam figitur, interdum resiliens percutit dirigentem. ("An arrow never lodges in a stone: often it recoils upon its sender.") St. John Chrysostom (c. 347-407), Archbishop of Constantinople.

Risk reduction and the privatization option: First principles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bjornstad, D.J.; Jones, D.W.; Russell, M.; Cummings, R.C.; Valdez, G.; Duemmer, C.L.

1997-01-01

The Department of Energy's Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM) faces a challenging mission. To increase efficiency, EM is undertaking a number of highly innovative initiatives--two of which are of particular importance to the present study. One is the 2006 Plan, a planning and budgeting process that seeks to convert the clean-up program from a temporally and fiscally open-ended endeavor to a strictly bounded one, with firm commitments over a decade-long horizon. The second is a major overhauling of the management and contracting practices that define the relationship between the Department and the private sector, aimed at cost reduction by increasing firms' responsibilities and profit opportunities and reducing DOE's direct participation in management practices and decisions. The goal of this paper is to provide an independent perspective on how EM should create new management practices to deal with private sector partners that are motivated by financial incentives. It seeks to ground this perspective in real world concerns--the background of the clean-up effort, the very difficult technical challenges it faces, the very real threats to environment, health and safety that have now been juxtaposed with financial drivers, and the constraints imposed by government's unique business practices and public responsibilities. The approach is to raise issues through application of first principles. The paper is targeted at the EM policy officer who must implement the joint visions of the 2006 plan and privatization within the context of the tradeoff between terminal risk reduction and interim risk management

Risk reduction and the privatization option: First principles

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bjornstad, D.J.; Jones, D.W.; Russell, M. [Joint Inst. for Energy and Environment, Knoxville, TN (United States); Cummings, R.C.; Valdez, G. [Georgia State Univ., Atlanta, GA (United States); Duemmer, C.L. [Hull, Duemmer and Garland (United States)

1997-06-25

The Department of Energy`s Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM) faces a challenging mission. To increase efficiency, EM is undertaking a number of highly innovative initiatives--two of which are of particular importance to the present study. One is the 2006 Plan, a planning and budgeting process that seeks to convert the clean-up program from a temporally and fiscally open-ended endeavor to a strictly bounded one, with firm commitments over a decade-long horizon. The second is a major overhauling of the management and contracting practices that define the relationship between the Department and the private sector, aimed at cost reduction by increasing firms` responsibilities and profit opportunities and reducing DOE`s direct participation in management practices and decisions. The goal of this paper is to provide an independent perspective on how EM should create new management practices to deal with private sector partners that are motivated by financial incentives. It seeks to ground this perspective in real world concerns--the background of the clean-up effort, the very difficult technical challenges it faces, the very real threats to environment, health and safety that have now been juxtaposed with financial drivers, and the constraints imposed by government`s unique business practices and public responsibilities. The approach is to raise issues through application of first principles. The paper is targeted at the EM policy officer who must implement the joint visions of the 2006 plan and privatization within the context of the tradeoff between terminal risk reduction and interim risk management.

Takotsubo Cardiomyopathy: A Long Term Follow-up Shows Benefit with Risk Factor Reduction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Koroush Khalighi

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Only sparse data was available on long-term of Takotusbo Cardiomyopathy (TC. Previous studies suggested prognosis is not necessarily benign. We report the long-term follow-up of 12 TC patients actively managed with risk factor reduction. Retrospective analysis of all patients diagnosed with TC at our hospital between 1998 and 2010. We identified 12 patients with TC among 1651 cases of emergent left heart catheterization over 12 years. Mean follow-up time was 8.3 ± 3.6 years. All were female, 87% had hypertension, 25% had history of Coronary Artery Disease (CAD, 67% had hyperlipidemia, 44% had some preceding emotional trauma, and 44% had some physical/physiological stress. Previous studies have shown that over 50% of TC patients experience future cardiac events, and 10% have a recurrence of TC. Patients were prescribed therapeutic lifestyle changes (TLC and guideline directed medical therapy (GDMT for aggressive risk factor reduction. TLC included diet, exercise, and cardiac rehabilitation. GDMT often included aspirin, beta-blockers, ACE-inhibitors, and statins. Follow-up echocardiograms showed recovery and maintenance of the ejection fraction. There was no cardiac mortality and no recurrences of TC. Aggressive risk factor reduction with TLC and GDMT may be effective in improving the long term outcomes of patients with TC.

Ibrutinib-associated bleeding: pathogenesis, management and risk reduction strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

Shatzel, J J; Olson, S R; Tao, D L; McCarty, O J T; Danilov, A V; DeLoughery, T G

2017-05-01

Ibrutinib is an irreversible inhibitor of Bruton's tyrosine kinase (Btk) that has proven to be an effective therapeutic agent for multiple B-cell-mediated lymphoproliferative disorders. Ibrutinib, however, carries an increased bleeding risk compared with standard chemotherapy. Bleeding events range from minor mucocutaneous bleeding to life-threatening hemorrhage, due in large part to the effects of ibrutinib on several distinct platelet signaling pathways. There is currently a minimal amount of data to guide clinicians regarding the use of ibrutinib in patients at high risk of bleeding or on anticoagulant or antiplatelet therapy. In addition, the potential cardiovascular protective effects of ibrutinib monotherapy in patients at risk of vascular disease are unknown. Patients should be cautioned against using non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, fish oils, vitamin E and aspirin-containing products, and consider replacing ibrutinib with a different agent if dual antiplatelet therapy is indicated. Patients should not take vitamin K antagonists concurrently with ibrutinib; direct oral anticoagulants should be used if extended anticoagulation is strongly indicated. In this review, we describe the pathophysiology of ibrutinib-mediated bleeding and suggest risk reduction strategies for common clinical scenarios associated with ibrutinib. © 2017 International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis.

An absolute scale for measuring the utility of money

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, P. J.

2010-07-01

Measurement of the utility of money is essential in the insurance industry, for prioritising public spending schemes and for the evaluation of decisions on protection systems in high-hazard industries. Up to this time, however, there has been no universally agreed measure for the utility of money, with many utility functions being in common use. In this paper, we shall derive a single family of utility functions, which have risk-aversion as the only free parameter. The fact that they return a utility of zero at their low, reference datum, either the utility of no money or of one unit of money, irrespective of the value of risk-aversion used, qualifies them to be regarded as absolute scales for the utility of money. Evidence of validation for the concept will be offered based on inferential measurements of risk-aversion, using diverse measurement data.

Risk of wound infection and safety profile of amoxicillin in healthy patients which required third molar surgery: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Isiordia-Espinoza, M A; Aragon-Martinez, O H; Martínez-Morales, J F; Zapata-Morales, J R

2015-11-01

The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to assess the risk of surgical wound infection and the adverse effects of amoxicillin in healthy patients who required excision of third molars. We identified eligible reports from searches of PubMed, Medline®, the Cochrane Library, Imbiomed, LILACS, and Google Scholar. Studies that met our minimum requirements were evaluated using inclusion and exclusion criteria and the Oxford Quality Scale. Those with a score of 3 or more on this Scale were included and their data were extracted and analysed. For evaluation of the risk of infection the absolute risk reduction, number needed to treat, and 95% CI were calculated. For evaluation of the risk of an adverse effect the absolute risk increase, number needed to harm, and 95% CI were calculated using the Risk Reduction Calculator. Each meta-analysis was made with the help of the Mantel-Haenszel random effects model, and estimates of risk (OR) and 95% CI were calculated using the Review Manager 5.3, from the Cochrane Library. A significant risk was assumed when the lower limit of the 95% CI was greater than 1. Probabilities of less than 0.05 were accepted as significant. The results showed that there was no reduction in the risk of infection when amoxicillin was given before or after operation compared with an untreated group or placebo. In conclusion, this study suggests that amoxicillin given prophylactically or postoperatively does not reduce the risk of infection in healthy patients having their third molars extracted. Copyright © 2015 The British Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk aversion and willingness to pay for water quality: The case of non-farm rural residents.

Science.gov (United States)

Larue, Bruno; West, Gale E; Singbo, Alphonse; Tamini, Lota Dabio

2017-07-15

Stated choice experiments are used to investigate the economic valuation of rural residents living in the province of Quebec for water quality improvements. In Quebec, rural residents played an important role in the setting of stricter environmental regulations. Unlike most stated choice experiments about the valuation of improvements in water quality, this study explicitly accounts for risk in the design and analysis of choice experiments. Risk in phosphorus and coliform reductions is introduced through a three-point uniform distribution in the choice sets. The results show greater support for constant absolute risk aversion preferences than for constant relative risk aversion. Rural residents value coliform and phosphorus reductions and the more educated ones are particularly willing to see the government tax farmers and taxpayers to secure such reductions. As the science improves and risk in water quality outcomes decrease and as the political weight of non-farm rural residents increase, it should be easier for governments to replace voluntary cost-share programs by polluter-payer programs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Promoting flood risk reduction: The role of insurance in Germany and England

Science.gov (United States)

Surminski, Swenja; Thieken, Annegret H.

2017-10-01

Improving society's ability to prepare for, respond to and recover from flooding requires integrated, anticipatory flood risk management (FRM). However, most countries still focus their efforts on responding to flooding events if and when they occur rather than addressing their current and future vulnerability to flooding. Flood insurance is one mechanism that could promote a more ex ante approach to risk by supporting risk reduction activities. This paper uses an adapted version of Easton's System Theory to investigate the role of insurance for FRM in Germany and England. We introduce an anticipatory FRM framework, which allows flood insurance to be considered as part of a broader policy field. We analyze if and how flood insurance can catalyze a change toward a more anticipatory approach to FRM. In particular we consider insurance's role in influencing five key components of anticipatory FRM: risk knowledge, prevention through better planning, property-level protection measures, structural protection and preparedness (for response). We find that in both countries FRM is still a reactive, event-driven process, while anticipatory FRM remains underdeveloped. Collaboration between insurers and FRM decision-makers has already been successful, for example in improving risk knowledge and awareness, while in other areas insurance acts as a disincentive for more risk reduction action. In both countries there is evidence that insurance can play a significant role in encouraging anticipatory FRM, but this remains underutilized. Effective collaboration between insurers and government should not be seen as a cost, but as an investment to secure future insurability through flood resilience.

Landslide risk reduction strategies: an inventory for the Global South

Science.gov (United States)

Maes, Jan; Kervyn, Matthieu; Vranken, Liesbet; Dewitte, Olivier; Vanmaercke, Matthias; Mertens, Kewan; Jacobs, Liesbet; Poesen, Jean

2015-04-01

Landslides constitute a serious problem globally. Moreover, landslide impact remains underestimated especially in the Global South. It is precisely there where the largest impact is experienced. An overview of measures taken to reduce risk of landslides in the Global South is however still lacking. Because in many countries of the Global South disaster risk reduction (DRR) is at an emerging stage, it is crucial to monitor the ongoing efforts (e.g. discussions on the Post-2015 Framework for DRR). The first objective of this study is to make an inventory of techniques and strategies that are applied to reduce risk from landslides in tropical countries. The second objective is to investigate what are the main bottlenecks for implementation of DRR strategies. In order to achieve these objectives, a review of both scientific and grey literature was conducted, supplemented with expert knowledge. The compilation of recommended and implemented DRR measures from landslide-prone tropical countries is based on an adapted classification proposed by the SafeLand project. According to Vaciago (2013), landslide risk can be reduced by either reducing the hazard, the vulnerability, the number or value of elements at risk or by sharing the residual risk. In addition, these measures can be combined with education and/or awareness raising and are influenced by governance structures and cultural beliefs. Global landslide datasets have been used to identify landslide-prone countries, augmented with region-specific datasets. Countries located in the tropics were selected in order to include landslide-prone countries with a different Human Development Index (HDI) but with a similar climate. Preliminary results support the statement made by Anderson (2013) that although the importance of shifting from post-disaster emergency actions to pre-disaster mitigation is acknowledged, in practice this paradigm shift seems rather limited. It is expected that this is especially the case in countries

Absolute determination of the deuterium content of heavy water, measurement of absolute density

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ceccaldi, M.; Riedinger, M.; Menache, M.

1975-01-01

The absolute density of two heavy water samples rich in deuterium (with a grade higher than 99.9%) was determined with the hydrostatic method. The exact isotopic composition of this water (hydrogen and oxygen isotopes) was very carefully studied. A theoretical estimate enabled us to get the absolute density value of isotopically pure D 2 16 O. This value was found to be 1104.750 kg.m -3 at t 68 =22.3 0 C and under the pressure of one atmosphere. (orig.) [de

Participatory three dimensional mapping for the preparation of landslide disaster risk reduction program

Science.gov (United States)

Kusratmoko, Eko; Wibowo, Adi; Cholid, Sofyan; Pin, Tjiong Giok

2017-07-01

This paper presents the results of applications of participatory three dimensional mapping (P3DM) method for fqcilitating the people of Cibanteng' village to compile a landslide disaster risk reduction program. Physical factors, as high rainfall, topography, geology and land use, and coupled with the condition of demographic and social-economic factors, make up the Cibanteng region highly susceptible to landslides. During the years 2013-2014 has happened 2 times landslides which caused economic losses, as a result of damage to homes and farmland. Participatory mapping is one part of the activities of community-based disaster risk reduction (CBDRR)), because of the involvement of local communities is a prerequisite for sustainable disaster risk reduction. In this activity, participatory mapping method are done in two ways, namely participatory two-dimensional mapping (P2DM) with a focus on mapping of disaster areas and participatory three-dimensional mapping (P3DM) with a focus on the entire territory of the village. Based on the results P3DM, the ability of the communities in understanding the village environment spatially well-tested and honed, so as to facilitate the preparation of the CBDRR programs. Furthermore, the P3DM method can be applied to another disaster areas, due to it becomes a medium of effective dialogue between all levels of involved communities.

HIV Risk Reduction Among Young Adult Chronic Psychiatric Patients

Science.gov (United States)

1990-08-28

emotional language to convey information on risk reduction. Common myths concerning transmission are presented and the audience is specifically told that...current study include: ’Can contact with semen (cum) from the penis result In AIDS?’,’ Can a person get AIDS from vaginal fluids in a woman’s vagina ? Can...hands. It doesn’t like being exposed to sunlight or air. Female: The AIDS virus lives inside the human body, in the blood, in a woman’s vagina and

Impact of the Absolute Difference in Diastolic Blood Pressure Between Arms in Patients With Coronary Artery Disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Hitaka, Yuka; Miura, Shin-Ichiro; Koyoshi, Rie; Shiga, Yuhei; Miyase, Yuiko; Norimatsu, Kenji; Nakamura, Ayumi; Adachi, Sen; Kuwano, Takashi; Sugihara, Makoto; Ike, Amane; Nishikawa, Hiroaki; Saku, Keijiro

2015-11-01

We investigated the relationship between the severity and presence of coronary artery disease (CAD) and a difference in systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP) between arms or between lower limbs. We enrolled 277 patients who underwent coronary angiography. We calculated the absolute (|right BP (rt. BP) - left BP (lt. BP)|) and relative (rt. BP - lt. BP) differences in SBP or DBP between arms or between lower limbs, and assessed the severity of CAD in terms of the Gensini score. The absolute difference in DBP between arms in the CAD group was significantly lower than that in the non-CAD group, whereas the absolute difference in DBP between lower limbs in the CAD group was significantly higher. There were no differences in the absolute or relative difference in SBP between arms or lower limbs between the groups. The absolute difference in DBP between arms decreased as the Gensini score increased. In a logistic regression analysis, the presence of CAD was independently associated with the absolute difference in DBP between arms, in addition to male, family history, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus and hypertension. The absolute difference in DBP between arms in addition to traditional factors may be a critical risk factor for the presence of CAD.

The absolute environmental performance of buildings

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brejnrod, Kathrine Nykjær; Kalbar, Pradip; Petersen, Steffen

2017-01-01

Our paper presents a novel approach for absolute sustainability assessment of a building's environmental performance. It is demonstrated how the absolute sustainable share of the earth carrying capacity of a specific building type can be estimated using carrying capacity based normalization factors....... A building is considered absolute sustainable if its annual environmental burden is less than its share of the earth environmental carrying capacity. Two case buildings – a standard house and an upcycled single-family house located in Denmark – were assessed according to this approach and both were found...... to exceed the target values of three (almost four) of the eleven impact categories included in the study. The worst-case excess was for the case building, representing prevalent Danish building practices, which utilized 1563% of the Climate Change carrying capacity. Four paths to reach absolute...

Disaster risk reduction in developing countries: costs, benefits and institutions.

Science.gov (United States)

Kenny, Charles

2012-10-01

Some 60,000 people worldwide die annually in natural disasters, mostly due to the collapse of buildings in earthquakes, and primarily in the developing world. This is despite the fact that engineering solutions exist that can eliminate almost completely the risk of such deaths. Why is this? The solutions are expensive and technically demanding, so their cost-benefit ratio often is unfavourable as compared to other interventions. Nonetheless, there are various public disaster risk reduction interventions that are highly cost-effective. That such interventions frequently remain unimplemented or ineffectively executed points to a role for issues of political economy. Building regulations in developing countries appear to have limited impact in many cases, perhaps because of inadequate capacity and corruption. Public construction often is of low quality, perhaps for similar reasons. This suggests the need for approaches that emphasise simple and limited disaster risk regulation covering only the most at-risk structures-and that, preferably, non-experts can monitor-as well as numerous transparency and oversight mechanisms for public construction projects. © 2012 The Author(s). Journal compilation © Overseas Development Institute, 2012.

CAPITAL STRUCTURE ANALYSIS OF THE MEDICAL DIAGNOSTIC-CONSULTATIVE CENTERS IN VARNA (absolute indicators

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lyubomira Koeva-Dimitrova

2016-08-01

Full Text Available The capital structure analysis of medical institutions is related to the assessment of their financial sustainability. The degree of their financial sustainability indicates the extent to which the medical institution is exposed to financial risk. This financial risk is related to the use of foreign capital (debts, loans, etc. and it is defined as the probability of insolvency and possible bankruptcy due to the existence of debts which could not be repaid at some point in the foreseeable future. Objective: To analyze the capital structure of the medical diagnostic-consultative centers in Varna city and on this basis to assess their long-term solvency and existence of financial risk. Materials and Methods: The materials for the study are the published annual financial statements (up to 05. 01. 2016 in the Commercial Register for the period from year 2008 to 2014 of all MDCCs (Medical Diagnostic Consultative centers, registered in Varna - 9 in total. In the study are applied logical-mathematical methods (comparison, grouping, detail, graphical method; financial and accounting analysis (balance sheet analysis; analysis of absolute ratios for financial sustainability. Results: Upon analysis of the capital structure of MDCC's are studied the main absolute indicators characterizing the conditions for financial sustainability and the existence of financial risk regarding the solvency. A table represents the overall assessment of the degree of financial sustainability of the companies according to the type and structure of the fulfilled criteria. It was ascertained that for year 2014, DCC 3, 4, 5 and 8 have met all the conditions and according to them these hospitals have very high financial sustainability. DCC 7 has an average financial sustainability, DCC 1 and 2 are in a financial crisis and DCC 6 and 9 are facing bankruptcy. It must be emphasized that nearly half of the studied health care organizations (DCC 1, 2, 6 and 9 need urgent intervention by

Absolute Summ

Science.gov (United States)

Phillips, Alfred, Jr.

Summ means the entirety of the multiverse. It seems clear, from the inflation theories of A. Guth and others, that the creation of many universes is plausible. We argue that Absolute cosmological ideas, not unlike those of I. Newton, may be consistent with dynamic multiverse creations. As suggested in W. Heisenberg's uncertainty principle, and with the Anthropic Principle defended by S. Hawking, et al., human consciousness, buttressed by findings of neuroscience, may have to be considered in our models. Predictability, as A. Einstein realized with Invariants and General Relativity, may be required for new ideas to be part of physics. We present here a two postulate model geared to an Absolute Summ. The seedbed of this work is part of Akhnaton's philosophy (see S. Freud, Moses and Monotheism). Most important, however, is that the structure of human consciousness, manifest in Kenya's Rift Valley 200,000 years ago as Homo sapiens, who were the culmination of the six million year co-creation process of Hominins and Nature in Africa, allows us to do the physics that we do. .

Reductions in Transmission Risk Behaviors in HIV-Positive Clients Receiving Prevention Case Management Services: Findings from a Community Demonstration Project

Science.gov (United States)

Gasiorowicz, Mari; Llanas, Michelle R.; DiFranceisco, Wayne; Benotsch, Eric G.; Brondino, Michael J.; Catz, Sheryl L.; Hoxie, Neil J.; Reiser, William J.; Vergeront, James M.

2005-01-01

Prevention case management (PCM) for HIV-infected persons is an HIV risk reduction intervention designed to assist clients who are aware of their HIV infection and who continue to engage in risk transmission behaviors. PCM combines individual risk reduction counseling with case management to address the psychosocial factors affecting HIV…

Investment risk management by applying contemporary modern portfolio theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jakšić Milena

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Investment risk is the principal threat to the assets side of the balance sheets of financial institutions. It is evident that investors who concentrate their wealth on one type of securities can rarely be found. Instead, they tend to invest diversified portfolio of securities. This reduces the degree of risk of the expected return, which depends both on the absolute risk of each investment in the portfolio, and the relationship that exists between individual investments within the portfolio. The paper analyzes the investment risk management by using modern portfolio theory in both national and global financial f lows. At the same time, the paper considers the risk management models that ensures efficient portfolio diversification, aiming at investment risk reduction. It is pointed out that the investment risk management in modern financial f lows is a complex process, and that the development of financial theory goes towards improving, soft risk management method.

Development of the Motivation to Change Lifestyle and Health Behaviours for Dementia Risk Reduction Scale

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Sarang Kim

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Background and Aims: It is not yet understood how attitudes concerning dementia risk may affect motivation to change health behaviours and lifestyle. This study was designed to develop a reliable and valid theory-based measure to understand beliefs underpinning the lifestyle and health behavioural changes needed for dementia risk reduction. Methods: 617 participants aged ≥50 years completed a theory-based questionnaire, namely, the Motivation to Change Lifestyle and Health Behaviours for Dementia Risk Reduction (MCLHB-DRR scale. The MCLHB-DRR consists of 53 items, reflecting seven subscales of the Health Belief Model. Results: Confirmatory factor analysis was performed and revealed that a seven-factor solution with 27 items fitted the data (comparative fit index = 0.920, root-mean-square error of approximation = 0.047 better than the original 53 items. Internal reliability (α = 0.608-0.864 and test-retest reliability (α = 0.552-0.776 were moderate to high. Measurement of invariance across gender and age was also demonstrated. Conclusions: These results propose that the MCLHB-DRR is a useful tool in assessing the beliefs and attitudes of males and females aged ≥50 years towards dementia risk reduction. This measure can be used in the development and evaluation of interventions aimed at dementia prevention.

Social Media Use and Sexual Risk Reduction Behavior Among Minority Youth: Seeking Safe Sex Information.

Science.gov (United States)

Stevens, Robin; Gilliard-Matthews, Stacia; Dunaev, Jamie; Todhunter-Reid, Abigail; Brawner, Bridgette; Stewart, Jennifer

Sexual health is an important area of study-particularly for minority youth and youth living in disadvantaged neighborhoods. The purpose of the research was to examine the sources of sexual health information associated with youth adopting sexual risk reduction behaviors. Data collection took place in a small city in the Northeastern United States using cross-sectional behavioral surveys and modified venue-based sampling. Participants included 249 African American and Latino youth aged 13-24. Participants reported their sources of information about contraception and human immunodeficiency virus/sexually transmitted disease, such as TV/movies, parents, social media; their intentions to have sex; and condom and contraception use during their last sexual activity. Social media use, past pregnancy experience, past sexual history, age, and gender were also measured. Standard tests of bivariate association (chi-square and F tests) were used to examine initial associations between sexual risk reduction behavior and exposure to sexual risk reduction information on social media. Logistic regression models were used to test multivariate relationships between information sources and sexual risk reduction behavior. Youth who were exposed to sexual health messages on social media were 2.69 times (p < .05) and 2.49 times (p < .08) more likely to have used contraception or a condom at last intercourse, respectively. Parents, schools, or traditional media as information sources were not significantly associated with contractive use or condom use at last intercourse. Youth sexual behavior is increasingly informed by social media messages. Health practitioners should utilize social media as an important health promotion tool.

Industrialisation, Trade Policy and Poverty Reduction: Evidence from Asia

OpenAIRE

Peter Warr

2003-01-01

Over recent decades, most of the developing economies of Asia achieved reductions in absolute poverty incidence, but these reductions varied greatly in size. Differences in the rate of aggregate economic growth explain part, but not all of these differences. One factor that would be important is the sectoral composition of the growth. This paper examines the relationship between poverty reduction outcomes and the rate of growth in the agricultural, industrial and services sectors. It assemble...

Absolute flux scale for radioastronomy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ivanov, V.P.; Stankevich, K.S.

1986-01-01

The authors propose and provide support for a new absolute flux scale for radio astronomy, which is not encumbered with the inadequacies of the previous scales. In constructing it the method of relative spectra was used (a powerful tool for choosing reference spectra). A review is given of previous flux scales. The authors compare the AIS scale with the scale they propose. Both scales are based on absolute measurements by the ''artificial moon'' method, and they are practically coincident in the range from 0.96 to 6 GHz. At frequencies above 6 GHz, 0.96 GHz, the AIS scale is overestimated because of incorrect extrapolation of the spectra of the primary and secondary standards. The major results which have emerged from this review of absolute scales in radio astronomy are summarized

Risk reduction in road and rail LPG transportation bij passive fire protection

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Molag e.a., M. (Menso)

2009-01-01

The potential reduction of risk in LPG (Liquified Petroleum Gas) road transport due to the adoption of passive fire protectionswas investigated. Experimental data available for small scale vessels fully engulfed by a fire were extended to real scale road and rail tankers through a finite elements

Risk reduction in road and rail LPG transportation by passive fire protection

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Paltrinieri, N.; Landucci, G.; Molag, M.; Bonvicini, S.; Spadoni, G.; Cozzani, V.

2009-01-01

The potential reduction of risk in LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) road transport due to the adoption of passive fire protections was investigated. Experimental data available for small scale vessels fully engulfed by a fire were extended to real scale road and rail tankers through a finite elements

Pure meat – public perceptions of risk reduction strategies in meat production

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Korzen, Sara Marie; Sandøe, Peter; Lassen, Jesper

2011-01-01

generally have an aversion to risk reduction strategies. Some variation was found, however, in the rejection of the strategies. Thus, more acceptable strategies are characterised by a low degree of technological interference, and by being close to the consumer’s experience in everyday life and/or familiar...

The impact of parent involvement in an effective adolescent risk reduction intervention on sexual risk communication and adolescent outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Bo; Stanton, Bonita; Deveaux, Lynette; Li, Xiaoming; Koci, Veronica; Lunn, Sonja

2014-12-01

Parent involvement in prevention efforts targeting adolescents increases the impact of such programs. However, the majority of risk-reduction intervention programs that are implemented through schools do not include parents, in part because most existing parental interventions require significant time commitment by parents. We designed a brief parent-adolescent sexual risk communication intervention to be delivered with an effective HIV prevention intervention as part of a randomized, controlled trial among 2,564 grade 10 students and their parents in the Bahamas. Mixed effects modeling analysis was conducted to evaluate the effect of the brief parent-adolescent communication intervention using four waves of longitudinal data. Results indicate that a brief parent-adolescent communication intervention is effective in improving parent-adolescent communication on sex-related issues and perceived parental monitoring as well as the youth's condom use skills and self-efficacy. There is a marginal effect on consistent condom use. In addition, there is an apparent dose effect of the brief parent intervention on perceived parent-adolescent sexual risk communication and adolescent outcomes. These findings suggest that adolescent risk reduction interventions should include a brief parent-adolescent communication intervention that should be reinforced by periodic boosters in order to enhance the impact of adolescent HIV prevention programs.

Aspirin and the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Diseases: An Approach Based on Individualized, Integrated Estimation of Risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Volpe, Massimo; Battistoni, Allegra; Gallo, Giovanna; Coluccia, Roberta; De Caterina, Raffaele

2017-09-01

While the use of aspirin in the secondary prevention of cardiovascular (CVD) is well established, aspirin in primary prevention is not systematically recommended because the absolute CV event reduction is similar to the absolute excess in major bleedings. Recently, emerging evidence suggests the possibility that the assumption of aspirin, may also be effective in the prevention of cancer. By adding to the CV prevention benefits the potential beneficial effect of aspirin in reducing the incidence of mortality and cancer could tip the balance between risks and benefits of aspirin therapy in the primary prevention in favour of the latter and broaden the indication for treatment with in populations at average risk. While prospective and randomized study are currently investigating the effect of aspirin in prevention of both cancer and CVD, clinical efforts at the individual level to promote the use of aspirin in global (or total) primary prevention could be already based on a balanced evaluation of the benefit/risk ratio.

A global algorithm for estimating Absolute Salinity

Science.gov (United States)

McDougall, T. J.; Jackett, D. R.; Millero, F. J.; Pawlowicz, R.; Barker, P. M.

2012-12-01

The International Thermodynamic Equation of Seawater - 2010 has defined the thermodynamic properties of seawater in terms of a new salinity variable, Absolute Salinity, which takes into account the spatial variation of the composition of seawater. Absolute Salinity more accurately reflects the effects of the dissolved material in seawater on the thermodynamic properties (particularly density) than does Practical Salinity. When a seawater sample has standard composition (i.e. the ratios of the constituents of sea salt are the same as those of surface water of the North Atlantic), Practical Salinity can be used to accurately evaluate the thermodynamic properties of seawater. When seawater is not of standard composition, Practical Salinity alone is not sufficient and the Absolute Salinity Anomaly needs to be estimated; this anomaly is as large as 0.025 g kg-1 in the northernmost North Pacific. Here we provide an algorithm for estimating Absolute Salinity Anomaly for any location (x, y, p) in the world ocean. To develop this algorithm, we used the Absolute Salinity Anomaly that is found by comparing the density calculated from Practical Salinity to the density measured in the laboratory. These estimates of Absolute Salinity Anomaly however are limited to the number of available observations (namely 811). In order to provide a practical method that can be used at any location in the world ocean, we take advantage of approximate relationships between Absolute Salinity Anomaly and silicate concentrations (which are available globally).

Risk reduction for nonmelanoma skin cancer with childhood sunscreen use

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stern, R.S.; Weinstein, M.C.; Baker, S.G.

1986-01-01

Exposure to ultraviolet radiation is the principle cause of basal and squamous cell carcinomas of the skin, which are the most frequent tumors occurring in white residents of the United States. Using a mathematical model based on epidemiologic data, we quantified the potential benefits of using a sunscreen with a sun protective factor of 15 and estimate that regular use of such a sunscreen during the first 18 years of life would reduce the lifetime incidence of these tumors by 78%. Additional benefits of sunscreen use during childhood include reduced risk of sunburn, retarding the pace of skin aging, and possible reduction in melanoma risk. We recommend that pediatricians encourage sunscreen use and sun avoidance as a regular part of pediatric preventive health care

A Case Analysis of Disaster Risk Reduction Preparedness of Iloilo Province: Basis for A Comprehensive Intervention Program

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Victoria D. Jurilla

2016-08-01

Full Text Available - This study determined the effectiveness of Disaster Risk Reduction Preparedness of Iloilo Province, Philippines in the areas of Dissemination, Implementation, and Resource Utilization and Operation as evaluated by the 390 citizens of the ten (10 selected municipalities from the five (5 Congressional Districts in the Province of Iloilo, Philippines. This descriptive method of research employed researcher-made instruments and random interviews. Descriptive statistics used were the mean and standard deviation while inferential statistics employed Ttest for independent samples and one-way analysis for variance set at .05 level of significances. Findings revealed that Disaster Risk Reduction Preparedness of Iloilo Province, Philippines is “more effective” in terms of dissemination, implementation, and resource utilization and operation according to the assessment of the 390 respondents of the ten (10 selected municipalities from the five (5 Congressional Districts when they were grouped as to personal variables. Finally, the findings revealed that three (3 out of ten (10 municipalities were very effective and among the five (5 districts, first district was very effective as to dissemination and resource utilization and operation of their respective Disaster Risk Reduction Preparedness Program but as a whole, Iloilo Province was more effective in its Disaster Risk Reduction Preparedness.

Teaching medical students cancer risk reduction nutrition counseling using a multimedia program.

Science.gov (United States)

Kolasa, K M; Jobe, A C; Miller, M G; Clay, M C

1999-03-01

There are many barriers to medical students receiving education about the linkage between nutrition and cancer, including the lack of role models and teachers and insufficient curricular time. We tested the use of a multimedia program as a possible solution to teaching diet-risk assessment and counseling skills. Images of Cancer Prevention, The Nutrition Link is a CD-ROM multimedia program that was developed and evaluated by 147 medical students. Pre-use and post-use surveys, computer log files, and recorded response sessions were used to determine the learner's 1) ease in using the program, 2) attitudes about the treatment of the content, 3) knowledge gain, and 4) attitudes about the role of physicians in nutrition assessment and counseling for cancer risk reduction. Students improved their knowledge of dietary guidelines for cancer risk reduction and made positive changes in their attitudes toward the role of physicians in dietary counseling. However, most students reported that they would not use the program unless it was required that they do so. The multimedia program was successful; it affected students' knowledge and attitudes concerning nutrition as a modifiable risk factor for some cancers. In addition, the design and delivery of the multimedia product was positively reviewed by the students for ease of access, message design, individualized instruction, and flexibility. Despite these favorable ratings, it was not clear that students would use the program unless required to do so.

Synergising Public Health Concepts with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction: A Conceptual Glossary.

Science.gov (United States)

Phibbs, Suzanne; Kenney, Christine; Severinsen, Christina; Mitchell, Jon; Hughes, Roger

2016-12-14

The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015) is a global strategy for addressing disaster risk and resilience that has been ratified by member countries of the United Nations. Its guiding principles emphasise building resilience through inter-sectoral collaboration, as well as partnerships that facilitate community empowerment and address underlying risk factors. Both public health and the emergency management sector face similar challenges related to developing and implementing strategies that involve structural change, facilitating community resilience and addressing individual risk factors. Familiarity with public health principles enables an understanding of the holistic approach to risk reduction that is outlined within the Sendai Framework. We present seven concepts that resonate with contemporary public health practice, namely: the social determinants of health; inequality and inequity; the inverse care law; community-based and community development approaches; hard to reach communities and services; the prevention paradox; and the inverse prevention law. These ideas from public health provide a useful conceptual base for the "new" agenda in disaster risk management that underpins the 2015 Sendai Framework. The relevance of these ideas to disaster risk management and research is illustrated through drawing on the Sendai Framework, disaster literature and exemplars from the 2010-2011 earthquakes in Canterbury, New Zealand.

Synergising Public Health Concepts with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction: A Conceptual Glossary

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Suzanne Phibbs

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015 is a global strategy for addressing disaster risk and resilience that has been ratified by member countries of the United Nations. Its guiding principles emphasise building resilience through inter-sectoral collaboration, as well as partnerships that facilitate community empowerment and address underlying risk factors. Both public health and the emergency management sector face similar challenges related to developing and implementing strategies that involve structural change, facilitating community resilience and addressing individual risk factors. Familiarity with public health principles enables an understanding of the holistic approach to risk reduction that is outlined within the Sendai Framework. We present seven concepts that resonate with contemporary public health practice, namely: the social determinants of health; inequality and inequity; the inverse care law; community-based and community development approaches; hard to reach communities and services; the prevention paradox; and the inverse prevention law. These ideas from public health provide a useful conceptual base for the ”new” agenda in disaster risk management that underpins the 2015 Sendai Framework. The relevance of these ideas to disaster risk management and research is illustrated through drawing on the Sendai Framework, disaster literature and exemplars from the 2010–2011 earthquakes in Canterbury, New Zealand.

Graphs to estimate an individualized risk of breast cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Benichou, J; Gail, M H; Mulvihill, J J

1996-01-01

Clinicians who counsel women about their risk for developing breast cancer need a rapid method to estimate individualized risk (absolute risk), as well as the confidence limits around that point. The Breast Cancer Detection Demonstration Project (BCDDP) model (sometimes called the Gail model) assumes no genetic model and simultaneously incorporates five risk factors, but involves cumbersome calculations and interpolations. This report provides graphs to estimate the absolute risk of breast cancer from the BCDDP model. The BCDDP recruited 280,000 women from 1973 to 1980 who were monitored for 5 years. From this cohort, 2,852 white women developed breast cancer and 3,146 controls were selected, all with complete risk-factor information. The BCDDP model, previously developed from these data, was used to prepare graphs that relate a specific summary relative-risk estimate to the absolute risk of developing breast cancer over intervals of 10, 20, and 30 years. Once a summary relative risk is calculated, the appropriate graph is chosen that shows the 10-, 20-, or 30-year absolute risk of developing breast cancer. A separate graph gives the 95% confidence limits around the point estimate of absolute risk. Once a clinician rules out a single gene trait that predisposes to breast cancer and elicits information on age and four risk factors, the tables and figures permit an estimation of a women's absolute risk of developing breast cancer in the next three decades. These results are intended to be applied to women who undergo regular screening. They should be used only in a formal counseling program to maximize a woman's understanding of the estimates and the proper use of them.

Copper increases reductive dehalogenation of haloacetamides by zero-valent iron in drinking water: Reduction efficiency and integrated toxicity risk.

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Chu, Wenhai; Li, Xin; Bond, Tom; Gao, Naiyun; Bin, Xu; Wang, Qiongfang; Ding, Shunke

2016-12-15

The haloacetamides (HAcAms), an emerging class of nitrogen-containing disinfection byproducts (N-DBPs), are highly cytotoxic and genotoxic, and typically occur in treated drinking waters at low μg/L concentrations. Since many drinking distribution and storage systems contain unlined cast iron and copper pipes, reactions of HAcAms with zero-valent iron (ZVI) and metallic copper (Cu) may play a role in determining their fate. Moreover, ZVI and/or Cu are potentially effective HAcAm treatment technologies in drinking water supply and storage systems. This study reports that ZVI alone reduces trichloroacetamide (TCAcAm) to sequentially form dichloroacetamide (DCAcAm) and then monochloroacetamide (MCAcAm), whereas Cu alone does not impact HAcAm concentrations. The addition of Cu to ZVI significantly improved the removal of HAcAms, relative to ZVI alone. TCAcAm and their reduction products (DCAcAm and MCAcAm) were all decreased to below detection limits at a molar ratio of ZVI/Cu of 1:1 after 24 h reaction (ZVI/TCAcAm = 0.18 M/5.30 μM). TCAcAm reduction increased with the decreasing pH from 8.0 to 5.0, but values from an integrated toxic risk assessment were minimised at pH 7.0, due to limited removal MCAcAm under weak acid conditions (pH = 5.0 and 6.0). Higher temperatures (40 °C) promoted the reductive dehalogenation of HAcAms. Bromine was preferentially removed over chlorine, thus brominated HAcAms were more easily reduced than chlorinated HAcAms by ZVI/Cu. Although tribromoacetamide was more easily reduced than TCAcAm during ZVI/Cu reduction, treatment of tribromoacetamide resulted in a higher integrated toxicity risk than TCAcAm, due to the formation of monobromoacetamide (MBAcAm). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Environmental Assessment: Bird Strike Risk Reduction at Laughlin Air Force Base, Texas

Science.gov (United States)

2008-01-01

mglkg in rats, 291 - 609 mglkg in mice, > 1000 mglkg in sheep , > 100 mglkg in dogs and > 1000 mglkg in rabbits (Pesticide Residues in Food-1987... vineyards . Wildl. Soc. Bull. 21:47-51. LAFB Strike Risk Reduction EA - 39 Gaines, T.B. 1969. Acute toxicity of pesticides. Toxicol. Appl. Pharmacol

Development of risk reduction behavioral counseling for Ebola virus disease survivors enrolled in the Sierra Leone Ebola Virus Persistence Study, 2015-2016.

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Abad, Neetu; Malik, Tasneem; Ariyarajah, Archchun; Ongpin, Patricia; Hogben, Matthew; McDonald, Suzanna L R; Marrinan, Jaclyn; Massaquoi, Thomas; Thorson, Anna; Ervin, Elizabeth; Bernstein, Kyle; Ross, Christine; Liu, William J; Kroeger, Karen; Durski, Kara N; Broutet, Nathalie; Knust, Barbara; Deen, Gibrilla F

2017-09-01

During the 2014-2016 West Africa Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) epidemic, the public health community had concerns that sexual transmission of the Ebola virus (EBOV) from EVD survivors was a risk, due to EBOV persistence in body fluids of EVD survivors, particularly semen. The Sierra Leone Ebola Virus Persistence Study was initiated to investigate this risk by assessing EBOV persistence in numerous body fluids of EVD survivors and providing risk reduction counseling based on test results for semen, vaginal fluid, menstrual blood, urine, rectal fluid, sweat, tears, saliva, and breast milk. This publication describes implementation of the counseling protocol and the key lessons learned. The Ebola Virus Persistence Risk Reduction Behavioral Counseling Protocol was developed from a framework used to prevent transmission of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections. The framework helped to identify barriers to risk reduction and facilitated the development of a personalized risk-reduction plan, particularly around condom use and abstinence. Pre-test and post-test counseling sessions included risk reduction guidance, and post-test counseling was based on the participants' individual test results. The behavioral counseling protocol enabled study staff to translate the study's body fluid test results into individualized information for study participants. The Ebola Virus Persistence Risk Reduction Behavioral Counseling Protocol provided guidance to mitigate the risk of EBOV transmission from EVD survivors. It has since been shared with and adapted by other EVD survivor body fluid testing programs and studies in Ebola-affected countries.

A global algorithm for estimating Absolute Salinity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. J. McDougall

2012-12-01

Full Text Available The International Thermodynamic Equation of Seawater – 2010 has defined the thermodynamic properties of seawater in terms of a new salinity variable, Absolute Salinity, which takes into account the spatial variation of the composition of seawater. Absolute Salinity more accurately reflects the effects of the dissolved material in seawater on the thermodynamic properties (particularly density than does Practical Salinity.

When a seawater sample has standard composition (i.e. the ratios of the constituents of sea salt are the same as those of surface water of the North Atlantic, Practical Salinity can be used to accurately evaluate the thermodynamic properties of seawater. When seawater is not of standard composition, Practical Salinity alone is not sufficient and the Absolute Salinity Anomaly needs to be estimated; this anomaly is as large as 0.025 g kg⁻¹ in the northernmost North Pacific. Here we provide an algorithm for estimating Absolute Salinity Anomaly for any location (x, y, p in the world ocean.

To develop this algorithm, we used the Absolute Salinity Anomaly that is found by comparing the density calculated from Practical Salinity to the density measured in the laboratory. These estimates of Absolute Salinity Anomaly however are limited to the number of available observations (namely 811. In order to provide a practical method that can be used at any location in the world ocean, we take advantage of approximate relationships between Absolute Salinity Anomaly and silicate concentrations (which are available globally.

Absolute versus relative measures of plasma fatty acids and health outcomes: example of phospholipid omega-3 and omega-6 fatty acids and all-cause mortality in women.

Science.gov (United States)

Miura, Kyoko; Hughes, Maria Celia B; Ungerer, Jacobus P J; Smith, David D; Green, Adèle C

2018-03-01

In a well-characterised community-based prospective study, we aimed to systematically assess the differences in associations of plasma omega-3 and omega-6 fatty acid (FA) status with all-cause mortality when plasma FA status is expressed in absolute concentrations versus relative levels. In a community sample of 564 women aged 25-75 years in Queensland, Australia, baseline plasma phospholipid FA levels were measured using gas chromatography. Specific FAs analysed were eicosapentaenoic acid, docosapentaenoic acid, docosahexaenoic acid, total long-chain omega-3 FAs, linoleic acid, arachidonic acid, and total omega-6 FAs. Levels of each FA were expressed in absolute amounts (µg/mL) and relative levels (% of total FAs) and divided into thirds. Deaths were monitored for 17 years and hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals calculated to assess risk of death according to absolute versus relative plasma FA levels. In total 81 (14%) women died during follow-up. Agreement between absolute and relative measures of plasma FAs was higher in omega-3 than omega-6 FAs. The results of multivariate analyses for risk of all-cause mortality were generally similar with risk tending to inverse associations with plasma phospholipid omega-3 FAs and no association with omega-6 FAs. Sensitivity analyses examining effects of age and presence of serious medical conditions on risk of mortality did not alter findings. The directions and magnitude of associations with mortality of absolute versus relative FA levels were comparable. However, plasma FA expressed as absolute concentrations may be preferred for ease of comparison and since relative units can be deduced from absolute units.

Coronary calcium predicts events better with absolute calcium scores than age-sex-race/ethnicity percentiles: MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis).

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Budoff, Matthew J; Nasir, Khurram; McClelland, Robyn L; Detrano, Robert; Wong, Nathan; Blumenthal, Roger S; Kondos, George; Kronmal, Richard A

2009-01-27

In this study, we aimed to establish whether age-sex-specific percentiles of coronary artery calcium (CAC) predict cardiovascular outcomes better than the actual (absolute) CAC score. The presence and extent of CAC correlates with the overall magnitude of coronary atherosclerotic plaque burden and with the development of subsequent coronary events. MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) is a prospective cohort study of 6,814 asymptomatic participants followed for coronary heart disease (CHD) events including myocardial infarction, angina, resuscitated cardiac arrest, or CHD death. Time to incident CHD was modeled with Cox regression, and we compared models with percentiles based on age, sex, and/or race/ethnicity to categories commonly used (0, 1 to 100, 101 to 400, 400+ Agatston units). There were 163 (2.4%) incident CHD events (median follow-up 3.75 years). Expressing CAC in terms of age- and sex-specific percentiles had significantly lower area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) than when using absolute scores (women: AUC 0.73 versus 0.76, p = 0.044; men: AUC 0.73 versus 0.77, p better model fit with the overall score. Both methods robustly predicted events (>90th percentile associated with a hazard ratio [HR] of 16.4, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 9.30 to 28.9, and score >400 associated with HR of 20.6, 95% CI: 11.8 to 36.0). Within groups based on age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific percentiles there remains a clear trend of increasing risk across levels of the absolute CAC groups. In contrast, once absolute CAC category is fixed, there is no increasing trend across levels of age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific categories. Patients with low absolute scores are low-risk, regardless of age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific percentile rank. Persons with an absolute CAC score of >400 are high risk, regardless of percentile rank. Using absolute CAC in standard groups performed better than age-, sex-, and race

Absolute coronary blood flow measurement and microvascular resistance in ST-elevation myocardial infarction in the acute and subacute phase

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wijnbergen, Inge; Veer, Marcel van ' t [Department of Cardiology, Catharina Hospital, Eindhoven (Netherlands); Department of Biomedical Engineering, Eindhoven University of Technology, Eindhoven (Netherlands); Lammers, Jeroen; Ubachs, Joey [Department of Cardiology, Catharina Hospital, Eindhoven (Netherlands); Pijls, Nico H.J., E-mail: nico.pijls@cze.nl [Department of Cardiology, Catharina Hospital, Eindhoven (Netherlands); Department of Biomedical Engineering, Eindhoven University of Technology, Eindhoven (Netherlands)

2016-03-15

Background/Purpose: In a number of patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI), myocardial hypoperfusion, known as the no-reflow phenomenon, persists after primary percutaneous intervention (PPCI). The aim of this study was to evaluate the feasibility and safety of a new quantitative method of measuring absolute blood flow and resistance within the perfusion bed of an infarct-related artery. Furthermore, we sought to study no-reflow by correlating these measurements to the index of microvascular resistance (IMR) and the area at risk (AR) as determined by cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (CMR). Methods: Measurements of absolute flow and myocardial resistance were performed in 20 patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), first immediately following PPCI and then again after 3–5 days. These measurements used the technique of thermodilution during a continuous infusion of saline. Flow was expressed in ml/min per gram of tissue within the area at risk. Results: The average time needed for measurement of absolute flow, resistance and IMR was 20 min, and all measurements could be performed without complication. A higher flow supplying the AR correlated with a lower IMR in the acute phase. Absolute flow increased from 3.14 to 3.68 ml/min/g (p = 0.25) and absolute resistance decreased from 1317 to 1099 dyne.sec.cm-5/g (p = 0.40) between the first day and fifth day after STEMI. Conclusions: Measurement of absolute flow and microvascular resistance is safe and feasible in STEMI patients and may allow for a better understanding of microvascular (dys)function in the early phase of AMI. - Highlights: • We measured absolute coronary blood flow and microvascular resistance in STEMI patients in the acute phase and in the subacute phase, using the technique of thermodilution with low grade intracoronary continuous infusion of saline. • These measurements are safe and feasible during PPCI in STEMI patients. • In STEMI patients, absolute flow

Reduction of Perceived Social Distance as an Explanation for Media's Influence on Personal Risk Perceptions: A Test of the Risk Convergence Model

Science.gov (United States)

So, Jiyeon; Nabi, Robin

2013-01-01

The risk convergence model proposes reduction of perceived social distance to a mediated personality as a mechanism through which the mass media can influence audiences' personal risk perceptions. As an initial test of the model, this study examined whether 5 audience variables known to facilitate media effects on personal risk…

A comparison of mantle versus involved-field radiotherapy for Hodgkin's lymphoma: reduction in normal tissue dose and second cancer risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koh, Eng-Siew; Paul, Narinder; Hodgson, David C; Tran, Tu Huan; Heydarian, Mostafa; Sachs, Rainer K; Tsang, Richard W; Brenner, David J; Pintilie, Melania; Xu, Tony; Chung, June

2007-01-01

Hodgkin's lymphoma (HL) survivors who undergo radiotherapy experience increased risks of second cancers (SC) and cardiac sequelae. To reduce such risks, extended-field radiotherapy (RT) for HL has largely been replaced by involved field radiotherapy (IFRT). While it has generally been assumed that IFRT will reduce SC risks, there are few data that quantify the reduction in dose to normal tissues associated with modern RT practice for patients with mediastinal HL, and no estimates of the expected reduction in SC risk. Organ-specific dose-volume histograms (DVH) were generated for 41 patients receiving 35 Gy mantle RT, 35 Gy IFRT, or 20 Gy IFRT, and integrated organ mean doses were compared for the three protocols. Organ-specific SC risk estimates were estimated using a dosimetric risk-modeling approach, analyzing DVH data with quantitative, mechanistic models of radiation-induced cancer. Dose reductions resulted in corresponding reductions in predicted excess relative risks (ERR) for SC induction. Moving from 35 Gy mantle RT to 35 Gy IFRT reduces predicted ERR for female breast and lung cancer by approximately 65%, and for male lung cancer by approximately 35%; moving from 35 Gy IFRT to 20 Gy IFRT reduces predicted ERRs approximately 40% more. The median reduction in integral dose to the whole heart with the transition to 35 Gy IFRT was 35%, with a smaller (2%) reduction in dose to proximal coronary arteries. There was no significant reduction in thyroid dose. The significant decreases estimated for radiation-induced SC risks associated with modern IFRT provide strong support for the use of IFRT to reduce the late effects of treatment. The approach employed here can provide new insight into the risks associated with contemporary IFRT for HL, and may facilitate the counseling of patients regarding the risks associated with this treatment

Suicide risk reduction in youths with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder prescribed methylphenidate: A Taiwan nationwide population-based cohort study.

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Liang, Sophie Hsin-Yi; Yang, Yao-Hsu; Kuo, Ting-Yu; Liao, Yin-To; Lin, Tzu-Chin; Lee, Yena; McIntyre, Roger S; Kelsen, Brent A; Wang, Tsu-Nai; Chen, Vincent Chin-Hung

2018-01-01

Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) youths have increased suicide risk. Nevertheless, the beneficial effects of methylphenidate (MPH) on suicide attempt have received relatively little attention. To investigate the MPH usage and the risk of suicide attempt among ADHD youths. We identified 84,898 youths less than 18 years old with ADHD diagnosis between 1997 and 2013 from National Health Insurance, and examined whether MPH use affected suicide attempt risk using Cox proportional-hazards models. Among ADHD youths, reduction of suicide risk was found in patients prescribed 90-180days of MPH after adjusting for confounding factors (hazard ratio (HR): 0.41, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.19-0.90) and a greater reduction in those prescribed more than 180days of MPH (HR: 0.28, 95% CI: 0.17-0.48). We observed a 59% suicide attempt risk reduction among ADHD youths prescribed between 90 and 180days and a 72% risk reduction in those prescribed more than 180days of MPH. The protective benefit observed by the group prescribed MPH for longer duration underscores the importance of psychoeducation and compliance enhancement as part of ADHD management. Indication bias is identified as a limitation of this study, and future self-case control study to investigate the association between suicide attempt and ADHD medication is suggested. This nationwide population-based cohort study showed that among ADHD youths, reduction of suicide risk was observed in patients prescribed MPH for duration 90days and longer, underscoring the importance of appropriate ADHD pharmacotherapy and enhancing drug compliance. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Combining Primary Prevention and Risk Reduction Approaches in Sexual Assault Protection Programming

Science.gov (United States)

Menning, Chadwick; Holtzman, Mellisa

2015-01-01

Objective: The object of this study is to extend prior evaluations of Elemental, a sexual assault protection program that combines primary prevention and risk reduction strategies within a single program. Participants and Methods: During 2012 and 2013, program group and control group students completed pretest, posttest, and 6-week and 6-month…

Invariant and Absolute Invariant Means of Double Sequences

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Abdullah Alotaibi

2012-01-01

Full Text Available We examine some properties of the invariant mean, define the concepts of strong σ-convergence and absolute σ-convergence for double sequences, and determine the associated sublinear functionals. We also define the absolute invariant mean through which the space of absolutely σ-convergent double sequences is characterized.

The Effect of Risk Reduction Intervention on Earthquake Disaster Preparedness of the Elderly People

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kian Nourozi

2016-01-01

Conclusion: Preparedness programs for disaster risk reduction has a positive effect on the elders’ preparedness. Thus, similar multimodal preparedness programs should be used more frequently for this vulnerable community citizens.

Self-perceived facture risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rothmann, M J; Ammentorp, J; Bech, M

2015-01-01

, and self-rated heath) and self-perceived fracture risk. Although women recognized the importance of some fracture risk factors, a number of significant risk factors appeared to be less well known. INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study is to investigate women's self-perceived fracture risk and potential...... factors associated with this and to compare self-perceived risk with absolute fracture risk estimated by FRAX® in women aged 65-80 years. METHODS: Data from 20,905 questionnaires from the ROSE study were analyzed. The questionnaire included 25 items on osteoporosis, risk factors for fractures, and self...... their fracture risk significantly higher than their peers. No correlation between self-perceived risk and absolute risk was found. The ordered logistic regression model showed a significant association between high self-perceived fracture risk and previous fragility fracture, parental hip fracture, falls, self...

Mediation Analysis of the Efficacy of the Eban HIV/STD Risk-Reduction Intervention for African American HIV Serodiscordant Couples.

Science.gov (United States)

El-Bassel, Nabila; Jemmott, John B; Bellamy, Scarlett L; Pequegnat, Willo; Wingood, Gina M; Wyatt, Gail E; Landis, J Richard; Remien, Robert H

2016-06-01

Targeting couples is a promising behavioral HIV risk-reduction strategy, but the mechanisms underlying the effects of such interventions are unknown. We report secondary analyses testing whether Social-Cognitive-Theory variables mediated the Eban HIV-risk-reduction intervention's effects on condom-use outcomes. In a multisite randomized controlled trial conducted in four US cities, 535 African American HIV-serodiscordant couples were randomized to the Eban HIV risk-reduction intervention or attention-matched control intervention. Outcomes were proportion condom-protected sex, consistent condom use, and frequency of unprotected sex measured pre-, immediately post-, and 6 and 12 months post-intervention. Potential mediators included Social-Cognitive-Theory variables: outcome expectancies and self-efficacy. Mediation analyses using the product-of-coefficients approach in a generalized-estimating-equations framework revealed that condom-use outcome expectancy, partner-reaction outcome expectancy, intention, self-efficacy, and safer-sex communication improved post-intervention and mediated intervention-induced improvements in condom-use outcomes. These findings underscore the importance of targeting outcome expectancies, self-efficacy, and safer-sex communication in couples-level HIV risk-reduction interventions.

Cryogenic, Absolute, High Pressure Sensor

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Chapman, John J. (Inventor); Shams. Qamar A. (Inventor); Powers, William T. (Inventor)

2001-01-01

A pressure sensor is provided for cryogenic, high pressure applications. A highly doped silicon piezoresistive pressure sensor is bonded to a silicon substrate in an absolute pressure sensing configuration. The absolute pressure sensor is bonded to an aluminum nitride substrate. Aluminum nitride has appropriate coefficient of thermal expansion for use with highly doped silicon at cryogenic temperatures. A group of sensors, either two sensors on two substrates or four sensors on a single substrate are packaged in a pressure vessel.

A developmental study of latent absolute pitch memory.

Science.gov (United States)

Jakubowski, Kelly; Müllensiefen, Daniel; Stewart, Lauren

2017-03-01

The ability to recall the absolute pitch level of familiar music (latent absolute pitch memory) is widespread in adults, in contrast to the rare ability to label single pitches without a reference tone (overt absolute pitch memory). The present research investigated the developmental profile of latent absolute pitch (AP) memory and explored individual differences related to this ability. In two experiments, 288 children from 4 to12 years of age performed significantly above chance at recognizing the absolute pitch level of familiar melodies. No age-related improvement or decline, nor effects of musical training, gender, or familiarity with the stimuli were found in regard to latent AP task performance. These findings suggest that latent AP memory is a stable ability that is developed from as early as age 4 and persists into adulthood.

Chronic kidney disease risk reduction in a Hispanic population through pharmacist-based disease-state management.

Science.gov (United States)

Leal, Sandra; Soto, Marisa

2008-04-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the ability of a pharmacist-based disease-state management service to improve the care of indigent, predominately Spanish-speaking patients with diabetes mellitus and common comorbid conditions at high risk for the development of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Patients at high risk for developing CKD who have diabetes at a community health center were placed in a pharmacist-based disease state management service for CKD risk reduction. A residency-trained, bilingual, certified diabetes educator, with a PharmD served as the patient's provider using diagnostic, educational, and therapeutic management services under a medical staff approved collaborative practice agreement. Outcomes were assessed by using national standards of care for disease control and prevention screening. The impact on CKD was shown with a mean A1C decrease of 2% and improvement in the proportion of patients at target goals for blood pressure, A1C, and cholesterol levels and receiving aspirin and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin receptor blocker. A pharmacist-based disease-state management service for CKD risk reduction, care of diabetes, and frequently associated comorbid conditions improved compliance with national standards for diabetes care in a high-risk population.

Meditation and Cardiovascular Risk Reduction: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association.

Science.gov (United States)

Levine, Glenn N; Lange, Richard A; Bairey-Merz, C Noel; Davidson, Richard J; Jamerson, Kenneth; Mehta, Puja K; Michos, Erin D; Norris, Keith; Ray, Indranill Basu; Saban, Karen L; Shah, Tina; Stein, Richard; Smith, Sidney C

2017-09-28

Despite numerous advances in the prevention and treatment of atherosclerosis, cardiovascular disease remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality. Novel and inexpensive interventions that can contribute to the primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease are of interest. Numerous studies have reported on the benefits of meditation. Meditation instruction and practice is widely accessible and inexpensive and may thus be a potential attractive cost-effective adjunct to more traditional medical therapies. Accordingly, this American Heart Association scientific statement systematically reviewed the data on the potential benefits of meditation on cardiovascular risk. Neurophysiological and neuroanatomical studies demonstrate that meditation can have long-standing effects on the brain, which provide some biological plausibility for beneficial consequences on the physiological basal state and on cardiovascular risk. Studies of the effects of meditation on cardiovascular risk have included those investigating physiological response to stress, smoking cessation, blood pressure reduction, insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome, endothelial function, inducible myocardial ischemia, and primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease. Overall, studies of meditation suggest a possible benefit on cardiovascular risk, although the overall quality and, in some cases, quantity of study data are modest. Given the low costs and low risks of this intervention, meditation may be considered as an adjunct to guideline-directed cardiovascular risk reduction by those interested in this lifestyle modification, with the understanding that the benefits of such intervention remain to be better established. Further research on meditation and cardiovascular risk is warranted. Such studies, to the degree possible, should utilize randomized study design, be adequately powered to meet the primary study outcome, strive to achieve low drop-out rates, include long

Competing risk model for reduction in life expectancy from radiogenic latent cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davis, H.T.

1978-01-01

Because of the large number of persons who could potentially receive low doses of radiation as a result of a nuclear reactor accident, the number of fatalities from latent cancers is generally larger than the early, or prompt, fatalities. For this reason the latent cancer fatality risk of reactor accidents is perceived as being more important than the early fatality risk. In addition, there exists the temptation to add the latent cancer fatality risk to the early fatality risk for the purpose of comparing reactor accident risks to other risks that society is exposed to, such as automobile accidents, airplane accidents, hurricanes, etc. However, the impact on the individual, and society as a whole, due to latent cancer fatalities is significantly different from the impact produced by early fatalities. Early fatalities generally result in appreciable life shortening for the affected individual while latent cancer fatalities generally result in very limited life shortening. A mathematical model was developed to express the reduction in life expectancy due to latent radiogenic cancer as a function of dose received

Children with Disabilities in Disability-Inclusive Disaster Risk Reduction: Focussing on School Settings

Science.gov (United States)

Ronoh, Steve; Gaillard, J. C.; Marlowe, Jay

2017-01-01

Every year, worldwide, disasters affect approximately seven million children with disabilities, highlighting their potential vulnerability. Although there is a growing move internationally to promote the rights of children with disabilities, they still receive little attention from disaster risk reduction (DRR) researchers and policy makers. They…

Risk score modeling of multiple gene to gene interactions using aggregated-multifactor dimensionality reduction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dai Hongying

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (MDR has been widely applied to detect gene-gene (GxG interactions associated with complex diseases. Existing MDR methods summarize disease risk by a dichotomous predisposing model (high-risk/low-risk from one optimal GxG interaction, which does not take the accumulated effects from multiple GxG interactions into account. Results We propose an Aggregated-Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (A-MDR method that exhaustively searches for and detects significant GxG interactions to generate an epistasis enriched gene network. An aggregated epistasis enriched risk score, which takes into account multiple GxG interactions simultaneously, replaces the dichotomous predisposing risk variable and provides higher resolution in the quantification of disease susceptibility. We evaluate this new A-MDR approach in a broad range of simulations. Also, we present the results of an application of the A-MDR method to a data set derived from Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis patients treated with methotrexate (MTX that revealed several GxG interactions in the folate pathway that were associated with treatment response. The epistasis enriched risk score that pooled information from 82 significant GxG interactions distinguished MTX responders from non-responders with 82% accuracy. Conclusions The proposed A-MDR is innovative in the MDR framework to investigate aggregated effects among GxG interactions. New measures (pOR, pRR and pChi are proposed to detect multiple GxG interactions.

Risk reduction of international mining projects by means of investor consortia and diversification of external financing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kirchner, C.

1982-01-01

Investors and creditors of international mining projects bear specific risks which may be reduced by means of forming investor and financing consortia. Risk is defined for each actor separately. Project risk and investor risk respectively credit risk are useful categories in order to analyze risk reduction. In each case formation of consortia has a positive influence on the economic viability of the project, and thus reduces the project risk. Furthermore, formation of consortia leads to better compliance of the host country of the mining project with the project and financing agreements. Thus, investor and credit risk may be reduced. (orig.) [de

Use of GIS in the estimation and development of risk reduction technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ha, Jae Joo

1998-03-01

The occurrence probability of a severe accident in the nuclear power plant is very small because the safety of a plant and the public is considered in the design and operation of a nuclear power plant. However, if a severe accident occurs, the establishment of a reduction strategy of damages resulting from it is essential because the effect of it on the human and the environment is very large. The important criterion which determines the severity of an accident is risk, which is defined as the product of its frequently and the consequence. The establishment of countermeasures in order to estimate and reduce risks quantitatively can be a very powerful tool to minimize the effect of an accident on the human and the environment. The research on the establishment of a framework which integrates a geographic information system (GIS), a database management system (DBMS), and decision making support system (DMSS) is considered very actively. Based on these systems, we can accomplish the estimation and display of risks and the development of reduction methodologies which are essential parts of an accident management of a nuclear power plant. The GIS plays a role to support users to systematize and comprehend spatial relationships of information which are necessary for the decision making. Through the DBMS, we can establish and manage spatial and attribute data, and use them in the query and selection. The DMSS is a computer-based information system which makes a necessary decision easily. In this study, we reviewed the fundamental concepts of a GIS and examined the methodology for the use of it in the estimation and display of risks. Also, we established the fundamental GIS platform of a Yonggwang site and the necessary database systems for the estimation of risks. (author). 17 refs., 9 tabs., 34 figs

Advancing Absolute Calibration for JWST and Other Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Rieke, George; Bohlin, Ralph; Boyajian, Tabetha; Carey, Sean; Casagrande, Luca; Deustua, Susana; Gordon, Karl; Kraemer, Kathleen; Marengo, Massimo; Schlawin, Everett; Su, Kate; Sloan, Greg; Volk, Kevin

2017-10-01

We propose to exploit the unique optical stability of the Spitzer telescope, along with that of IRAC, to (1) transfer the accurate absolute calibration obtained with MSX on very bright stars directly to two reference stars within the dynamic range of the JWST imagers (and of other modern instrumentation); (2) establish a second accurate absolute calibration based on the absolutely calibrated spectrum of the sun, transferred onto the astronomical system via alpha Cen A; and (3) provide accurate infrared measurements for the 11 (of 15) highest priority stars with no such data but with accurate interferometrically measured diameters, allowing us to optimize determinations of effective temperatures using the infrared flux method and thus to extend the accurate absolute calibration spectrally. This program is integral to plans for an accurate absolute calibration of JWST and will also provide a valuable Spitzer legacy.

Closed reduction of slipped capital femoral epiphysis: high-risk factor for avascular necrosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Kitano, Toshio; Nakagawa, Keisuke; Wada, Mayuko; Moriyama, Michiko

2015-07-01

How should we treat acute/unstable slipped capital femoral epiphysis (SCFE) without the development of avascular necrosis (AVN)? To answer this question, we investigated the risk factors of AVN development after SCFE. Seventy-six hips of 64 patients were classified using two kinds of classification systems, Loder's classification based on instability and the conventional classification based on the duration of symptom, because both classifications are related to AVN development. Of 21 unstable SCFEs, seven hips developed AVN. Of 35 hips defined as acute or acute on chronic, nine hips developed AVN. Two stable SCFEs of Loder's classification developed AVN, one was acute and the other was acute on chronic. No hips of chronic SCFE developed AVN. The factor that had influenced AVN development was only closed reduction, whether purposefully or inadvertently, in an acute or unstable SCFE. On the basis of the findings of this study, one should not embark on any modality of closed reduction for an unstable or acute form of SCFE, as there is a high risk for occurrence of AVN. For the same reason, a traction table should not be used for SCFE fixation, so as to avoid an inadvertent reduction or force that can lead to AVN.

A qualitative study of older and middle-aged adults' perception and attitudes towards dementia and dementia risk reduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Sarang; Sargent-Cox, Kerry A; Anstey, Kaarin J

2015-07-01

To investigate perceptions of dementia and dementia risk reduction held by people without dementia. Dementia does not only affect individuals with dementia, but also has an impact on family and friends, society and healthcare professionals. Recent research has identified modifiable risk and protective factors for dementia. However, it is unclear what knowledge people without dementia have about these risk factors and their attitudes towards addressing these risk factors to achieve dementia risk reduction are not known. Qualitative descriptive study using focus group methodology. A focus group study was conducted in February 2011 with 34 older adults aged between 52-90 years. The long-table approach was used to identify themes and categorize data on dementia knowledge, risk and attitudes. Participants correctly identified dementia risk factors as a group. Participants' responses about their perceived likelihood of developing dementia could be classified into three distinctive themes; fear, rational and cynical perceptions. Both fear of developing dementia and the need to improve dementia knowledge were considered major motivators towards adopting healthier lifestyle and health behaviours. Lack of knowledge on risk factors for dementia was identified as a major barrier for behavioural and lifestyle change. These findings can be used to develop effective and personalized interventions that increase motivators and reduce barriers by tailoring interventions to individual's dementia risk reduction literacy and motivations to change behaviours. Greater public-health promotion and education about risk and protective factors for dementia are also necessary to increase dementia health literacy and to reduce overall dementia prevalence. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evaluation of severe accident risks and the potential for risk reduction: Grand Gulf, Unit 1. Draft for comment, February 1987

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Amos, C N [Technadyne Engineering Consultants, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Benjamin, A S; Kunsman, D M; Williams, D C [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Boyd, G J; Lewis, S R [Safety and Reliability Optimization Services, Inc., Knoxville, TN (United States); Smith, L N [Science Applications International Corporation, Albuquerque, NM (United States)

1987-04-01

The Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a rebaselining of the risks to the public from a boiling water reactor with a Mark III containment (Grand Gulf, Unit 1). Emphasis was placed on determining the magnitude and character of the uncertainties, rather than focusing on a point estimate. The risk-reduction potential of a set of proposed safety option backfits was also studied, and their costs and benefits were also evaluated. It was found that the risks from internal events are generally low relative to previous studies; for example, most of the uncertainty range is lower than the point estimate of risk for the Peach Bottom plant in the Reactor Safety Study (RSS). However, certain unresolved issues cause the top of the uncertainty band to appear at a level that is comparable with the RSS point estimate. These issues include the diesel generator failure rate, iodine and cesium revolatilization after vessel breach and the possibility of reactor vessel pedestal failure caused by core debris attack. Some of the postulated safety options appear to be potentially cost effective for the Grand Gulf power plant, particularly when onsite accidents costs are included in the evaluation of benefits. Principally these include procedural modifications and relatively inexpensive hardware additions to insure core cooling in the event of a station blackout. This work supports the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's assessment of severe accidents in NUREG-1150. (author)

Biodiesel from Specified Risk Material Tallow: An Appraisal of TSE Risks and their Reduction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baribeau, A; Bradley, R; Brown, P; Goodwin, J; Kihm, U; Lotero, E; O' Connor, D; Schuppers, M; Taylor, D

2007-03-15

inactivate TSE infectivity, for example, exposure to strong acids or bases and, depending on the process, exposure to high temperature or purification by chromatography or precipitation. However, the two-phase aqueouslipidic nature of transesterification introduces an element of uncertainty about the effect of these procedures on infectivity. Biodiesel use. Combustion temperatures, even at millisecond exposures, might partially inactivate contaminated biodiesel. But experimental data have so far been limited to saline tissue suspensions of infected tissues and several minute exposure times in static rather than dynamic combustion processes. A substantial body of epidemiological and laboratory evidence indicates that TSE is not transmitted by aerosol inhalation. Overall conclusion. Biodiesel produced from animals infected with TSE poses a negligible risk to animal and public health. This conclusion extends even to the use of SRM as a source of tallow, based on experimental evidence showing that rendered tallow from infected animal tissues does not transmit disease to inoculated susceptible animals. Although infectivity reductions during biodiesel manufacturing steps should therefore be redundant, any such reduction would still be desirable as an added measure of safety. At present, the potential for infectivity reduction through biodiesel manufacturing and combustion can only be estimated from analogy to methods known to inactivate infectivity in saline suspensions of infected tissue. Studies of the actual biodiesel process, using experimentally contaminated input tallow, are recommended as the only means by which a scientifically-based conclusion can be made about the capacity of these processes to reduce or eliminate TSE infectivity.

Biodiesel from Specified Risk Material Tallow: An Appraisal of TSE Risks and their Reduction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baribeau, A.; Bradley, R.; Brown, P.; Goodwin, J.; Kihm, U.; Lotero, E.; O' Connor, D.; Schuppers, M.; Taylor, D.

2007-03-15

potential to inactivate TSE infectivity, for example, exposure to strong acids or bases and, depending on the process, exposure to high temperature or purification by chromatography or precipitation. However, the two-phase aqueouslipidic nature of transesterification introduces an element of uncertainty about the effect of these procedures on infectivity. Biodiesel use. Combustion temperatures, even at millisecond exposures, might partially inactivate contaminated biodiesel. But experimental data have so far been limited to saline tissue suspensions of infected tissues and several minute exposure times in static rather than dynamic combustion processes. A substantial body of epidemiological and laboratory evidence indicates that TSE is not transmitted by aerosol inhalation. Overall conclusion. Biodiesel produced from animals infected with TSE poses a negligible risk to animal and public health. This conclusion extends even to the use of SRM as a source of tallow, based on experimental evidence showing that rendered tallow from infected animal tissues does not transmit disease to inoculated susceptible animals. Although infectivity reductions during biodiesel manufacturing steps should therefore be redundant, any such reduction would still be desirable as an added measure of safety. At present, the potential for infectivity reduction through biodiesel manufacturing and combustion can only be estimated from analogy to methods known to inactivate infectivity in saline suspensions of infected tissue. Studies of the actual biodiesel process, using experimentally contaminated input tallow, are recommended as the only means by which a scientifically-based conclusion can be made about the capacity of these processes to reduce or eliminate TSE infectivity.

Case Study of Cardiovascular Risk Reduction in the Northwest Region and TRICARE Region 11

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Murphy, Rosemary

2003-01-01

... and TRICARE Lead Agent Region 11. The outcomes management team developed a cardiovascular risk reduction scorecard and metrics in which to evaluate the care being given to the TRICARE prime enrollees with a cardiovascular disease diagnosis...

Minority Households' Willingness-to-Pay for Public and Private Wildfire Risk Reduction in Florida

Science.gov (United States)

Gonzalez-Caban, A.; Sanchez, J. J.

2017-12-01

The purpose of this work is to estimate willingness-to-pay (WTP) for minority (African-American and Hispanic) homeowners in Florida for private and public wildfire risk reduction programs and also to test for differences in response between the two groups. A random parameter logit and latent class models allowed us to determine if there is difference in wildfire mitigation program preferences, whether WTP is higher for public or private actions for wildfire risk reduction, and whether households with personal experience and who perceive that they live in higher-risk areas have significantly higher WTP. We also compare FL minority homeowners' WTP values with Florida original homeowners' estimates. Results suggest that FL minority homeowners are willing to invest in public programs, with African-Americans WTP values at a higher rate than Hispanics. In addition, the highest priority for cost sharing funds would go to low-income homeowners, especially to cost-share private actions on their own land. These results may help fire managers optimize allocation of scarce cost-sharing funds for public versus private actions.

Genetic risk, coronary heart disease events, and the clinical benefit of statin therapy: an analysis of primary and secondary prevention trials.

Science.gov (United States)

Mega, J L; Stitziel, N O; Smith, J G; Chasman, D I; Caulfield, M; Devlin, J J; Nordio, F; Hyde, C; Cannon, C P; Sacks, F; Poulter, N; Sever, P; Ridker, P M; Braunwald, E; Melander, O; Kathiresan, S; Sabatine, M S

2015-06-06

Genetic variants have been associated with the risk of coronary heart disease. In this study, we tested whether or not a composite of these variants could ascertain the risk of both incident and recurrent coronary heart disease events and identify those individuals who derive greater clinical benefit from statin therapy. A community-based cohort study (the Malmo Diet and Cancer Study) and four randomised controlled trials of both primary prevention (JUPITER and ASCOT) and secondary prevention (CARE and PROVE IT-TIMI 22) with statin therapy, comprising a total of 48,421 individuals and 3477 events, were included in these analyses. We studied the association of a genetic risk score based on 27 genetic variants with incident or recurrent coronary heart disease, adjusting for traditional clinical risk factors. We then investigated the relative and absolute risk reductions in coronary heart disease events with statin therapy stratified by genetic risk. We combined data from the different studies using a meta-analysis. When individuals were divided into low (quintile 1), intermediate (quintiles 2-4), and high (quintile 5) genetic risk categories, a significant gradient in risk for incident or recurrent coronary heart disease was shown. Compared with the low genetic risk category, the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio for coronary heart disease for the intermediate genetic risk category was 1·34 (95% CI 1·22-1·47, pgenetic risk category was 1·72 (1·55-1·92, pgenetic risk categories. Similarly, we noted greater absolute risk reductions in those individuals in higher genetic risk categories (p=0·0101), resulting in a roughly threefold decrease in the number needed to treat to prevent one coronary heart disease event in the primary prevention trials. Specifically, in the primary prevention trials, the number needed to treat to prevent one such event in 10 years was 66 in people at low genetic risk, 42 in those at intermediate genetic risk, and 25 in those at high

Constructing post-carbon institutions: Assessing EU carbon reduction efforts through an institutional risk governance approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

LaBelle, Michael

2012-01-01

This paper examines three different governance approaches the European Union (EU) and Member States (MS) are relying on to reach a low carbon economy by 2050. Current governance literature explains the operational methods of the EU's new governance approach to reduce carbon emissions. However, the literature neglects to account for the perceived risks that inhibit the roll-out of new low carbon technology. This article, through a novel approach, uses a grounded theoretical framework to reframe traditional risk literature and provides a connection to governance literature in order to assess the ability of EU governance mechanisms to reduce carbon emissions. The empirical research is based on responses from European energy stakeholders who participated in a Delphi method discussion and in semi-structured interviews; these identified three essential requirements for carbon emissions to be reduced to near zero by 2050: (1) an integrated European energy network, (2) carbon pricing and (3) demand reduction. These features correspond to institutionalized responses by the EU and MS: the Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER); European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) and energy efficiency directives and policies integrated into existing MS institutions. The theoretical and empirical findings suggest that governance by facilitation (energy efficiency) fails to induce significant investment and new policy approaches and cannot be relied on to achieve requisite reductions in demand. Governance by negotiation (ACER) and governance by hierarchy (EU ETS) do reduce risks and may encourage the necessary technological uptake. The term ‘risk governance’ is used to explain the important role governance plays in reducing risks and advancing new technology and thereby lowering carbon emissions in the energy sector. - Highlights: ► This article assesses the role of EU institutions in reducing carbon emissions by 2050. ► Empirical research is based on Delphi

Risk factors in limb reduction defects.

Science.gov (United States)

Stoll, C; Alembik, Y; Dott, B; Roth, M P

1992-07-01

Risk factors were studied in 123 children with limb reduction defects (LRD) from 118,265 consecutive births of known outcome during the period from 1979 to 1987 in the area which is covered by our registry of congenital malformations. For each case a control was studied. The LRD was localised and classified according to the EUROCAT guide for the description and classification of limb defects. The prevalence of LRD was 1.04 per thousand: 82.9% of the babies were liveborn, 13.0% were late spontaneous abortion or stillborn and termination was performed in 4.0% of the cases. The proportion of males was 0.55. The most common malformations in the 51.2% of children who had at least one other anomaly than LRD were associated cardiac, digestive and renal anomalies. The pregnancy with limb anomalies was more often complicated by oligohydramnios, polyhydramnios and threatened abortion but there were no differences in parental characteristics. However, 9.7% of marriages were consanguineous (P less than 0.01) and the incidence of LRD in first-degree relatives of the children with LRD was high. First-degree relatives also had more non-limb malformations than did those of controls.

Risk adjusted financial costs of photovoltaics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Szabo, Sandor; Jaeger-Waldau, Arnulf [Joint Research Centre, Institute for Energy, Via E. Fermi 2749, I-21020 Ispra (Italy); Szabo, Laszlo [Joint Research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies C. Inca Garcilaso, 3. E-41092 Sevilla (Spain)

2010-07-15

Recent research shows significant differences in the levelised photovoltaics (PV) electricity cost calculations. The present paper points out that no unique or absolute cost figure can be justified, the correct solution is to use a range of cost figures that is determined in a dynamic power portfolio interaction within the financial scheme, support mechanism and industry cost reduction. The paper draws attention to the increasing role of financial investors in the PV segment of the renewable energy market and the importance they attribute to the risks of all options in the power generation portfolio. Based on these trends, a former version of a financing model is adapted to project the energy mix changes in the EU electricity market due to investors behaviour with different risk tolerance/aversion. The dynamic process of translating these risks into the return expectation in the financial appraisal and investment decision making is also introduced. By doing so, the paper sets up a potential electricity market trend with the associated risk perception and classification. The necessary risk mitigation tasks for all stakeholders in the PV market are summarised which aims to avoid the burden of excessive risk premiums in this market segment. (author)

Risk adjusted financial costs of photovoltaics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Szabo, Sandor; Jaeger-Waldau, Arnulf; Szabo, Laszlo

2010-01-01

Recent research shows significant differences in the levelised photovoltaics (PV) electricity cost calculations. The present paper points out that no unique or absolute cost figure can be justified, the correct solution is to use a range of cost figures that is determined in a dynamic power portfolio interaction within the financial scheme, support mechanism and industry cost reduction. The paper draws attention to the increasing role of financial investors in the PV segment of the renewable energy market and the importance they attribute to the risks of all options in the power generation portfolio. Based on these trends, a former version of a financing model is adapted to project the energy mix changes in the EU electricity market due to investors behaviour with different risk tolerance/aversion. The dynamic process of translating these risks into the return expectation in the financial appraisal and investment decision making is also introduced. By doing so, the paper sets up a potential electricity market trend with the associated risk perception and classification. The necessary risk mitigation tasks for all stakeholders in the PV market are summarised which aims to avoid the burden of excessive risk premiums in this market segment.

Public risk-reduction measures: cost-effectiveness from a global point-of-view

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oliveira, L.F.S. de; Motta Barros, E.B. da; Fleming, P.V.; Rosa, L.P.

1985-05-01

A review of systemic or global approach to cost-effectiveness analysis of risk-reduction measures is presented, and its advantages and limitations are discussed. The method is applied for problem of the cost-effectiveness of increasing the Angra 3 reactor containment wall thickness from 60cm to 180cm thick, in case of a direct commercial aircraft crash on it. (Author) [pt

Should risk of bone fragility restrict weight control for other health reasons in postmenopausal women?--A ten year prospective study.

Science.gov (United States)

Sirola, Joonas; Rikkonen, Toni; Tuppurainen, Marjo; Honkanen, Risto; Kröger, Heikki

2012-02-01

The aim of the present study was to investigate the health risks of excess body weight in the light of its protective effects on bone fragility. Femoral neck and lumbar spine dual X-ray absorptiometry was performed for 1970 Finnish women with a mean baseline age of 58.8 years (range 53.1-65.7 years) in 1994 and 2004. Women were categorized according to baseline BMI into normal obese ≥30 kg/m(2). Weight change (kg) was categorized into tertiles. Co-morbidities, not allowed to be present at baseline, was based on self-reports. Osteoporosis was defined as femoral neck or spinal (L2-L4) T-score Obesity (Ob) and overweight (Ow) were related with higher 10-year risk of hypertension (OR=2.6 (Ob)/OR=1.7 (Ow), posteoporosis (OR=0.13/OR=0.28, pobese women the absolute risk increase of hypertension was 17%, of diabetes 12%, and absolute risk reduction of osteoporosis 14% in comparison to BMI <25 kg/m(2). Health related risks of high BMI outweigh its protective effects on bone. Weight gain increases the risk hypertension and breast cancer. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

NGS Absolute Gravity Data

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NGS Absolute Gravity data (78 stations) was received in July 1993. Principal gravity parameters include Gravity Value, Uncertainty, and Vertical Gradient. The...

Frustrated Lewis pairs-assisted reduction of carbonyl compounds

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Marek, Ales; Pedersen, Martin Holst Friborg

2015-01-01

An alternative and robust method for the reduction of carbonyl groups by frustrated Lewis pairs (FLPs) is reported in this paper. With its very mild reaction conditions, good to excellent yields, absolute regioselectivity and the non-metallic character of the reagent, it provides an excellent too...

GEO activities towards improved Geophysical monitoring. A key input to Disaster Risk Reduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Achache, J.; Rum, G.

2007-05-01

GEO has been established in 2005 with the main objective to put in place a Global, Coordinated, Comprehensive and Sustained System of Observing Systems (GEOSS) to serve 9 Social Benefit Areas, among which Disaster Risk Reduction. The paper will first set up the reference GEO framework, through a brief description of GEOSS key features, architectural functions and capacity building, and then will recall the value of the Geophysical observations, coming both from in situ and remote (satellite) systems, and, even more important, of their integration. GEO activities related to Geophysical monitoring and the use of related observation to foster social benefits in the Disaster Risk Reduction area will then be shortly described, together with the on-going key actions, including specific examples on key scientific/technical and data sharing aspects associated to GEOSS implementation. Special attention will be devoted on how Capacity Building strategy and activities are addressed through GEOSS development, building on infrastructure and programs under consolidation within GEO framework, such as the GEOSS Information collection and dissemination systems under development (GEONETCast, GEO Web Portal, GEO Clearinghouse) and the UN programs such as SPIDER (SPace based Information for Disaster management and Emergency Response) and UNOSAT. The paper will provide recommendations on the way forward for the implementation of Disaster Risk Management provisions as an integral part of sustainable development, also with the objective of creating within GEO a supporting framework to UNDP and World Bank activities on Risk Identification and Assessment.

RISK REDUCTION WITH A FUZZY EXPERT EXPLORATION TOOL

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Robert S. Balch; Ron Broadhead

2005-03-01

Incomplete or sparse data such as geologic or formation characteristics introduce a high level of risk for oil exploration and development projects. ''Expert'' systems developed and used in several disciplines and industries have demonstrated beneficial results when working with sparse data. State-of-the-art expert exploration tools, relying on a database, and computer maps generated by neural networks and user inputs, have been developed through the use of ''fuzzy'' logic, a mathematical treatment of imprecise or non-explicit parameters and values. Oil prospecting risk has been reduced with the use of these properly verified and validated ''Fuzzy Expert Exploration (FEE) Tools.'' Through the course of this project, FEE Tools and supporting software were developed for two producing formations in southeast New Mexico. Tools of this type can be beneficial in many regions of the U.S. by enabling risk reduction in oil and gas prospecting as well as decreased prospecting and development costs. In today's oil industry environment, many smaller exploration companies lack the resources of a pool of expert exploration personnel. Downsizing, volatile oil prices, and scarcity of domestic exploration funds have also affected larger companies, and will, with time, affect the end users of oil industry products in the U.S. as reserves are depleted. The FEE Tools benefit a diverse group in the U.S., allowing a more efficient use of scarce funds, and potentially reducing dependence on foreign oil and providing lower product prices for consumers.

Absolute isotopic abundances of Ti in meteorites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Niederer, F.R.; Papanastassiou, D.A.; Wasserburg, G.J.

1985-01-01

The absolute isotope abundance of Ti has been determined in Ca-Al-rich inclusions from the Allende and Leoville meteorites and in samples of whole meteorites. The absolute Ti isotope abundances differ by a significant mass dependent isotope fractionation transformation from the previously reported abundances, which were normalized for fractionation using 46 Ti/ 48 Ti. Therefore, the absolute compositions define distinct nucleosynthetic components from those previously identified or reflect the existence of significant mass dependent isotope fractionation in nature. We provide a general formalism for determining the possible isotope compositions of the exotic Ti from the measured composition, for different values of isotope fractionation in nature and for different mixing ratios of the exotic and normal components. The absolute Ti and Ca isotopic compositions still support the correlation of 50 Ti and 48 Ca effects in the FUN inclusions and imply contributions from neutron-rich equilibrium or quasi-equilibrium nucleosynthesis. The present identification of endemic effects at 46 Ti, for the absolute composition, implies a shortfall of an explosive-oxygen component or reflects significant isotope fractionation. Additional nucleosynthetic components are required by 47 Ti and 49 Ti effects. Components are also defined in which 48 Ti is enhanced. Results are given and discussed. (author)

Patterns of NPS Use and Risk Reduction in Slovenia.

Science.gov (United States)

Sande, Matej; Paš, Mina; Nahtigal, Klara; Šabić, Simona

2018-01-15

The following study presents factors influencing the decision to use/not to use new psychoactive substances (NPS), various patterns of NPS use, the problems experienced by users, and the methods for reducing the risks associated with NPS use. The study seeks to provide an in-depth look into the characteristics of NPS use and support the planning of targeted interventions in the field of NPS. The study involved 19 in-depth interviews carried out with 25 individuals divided into three subsamples in order to gain insight into the various experiences of NPS users. The interviews were conducted in Slovenia between December 2013 and October 2014. The sample was obtained by using the convenience sampling and snowball sampling methods. The main pattern of NPS use determined by the study concerned synthetic cathinones, specifically 3-MMC, with binge use spanning several days being a prominent feature. The main risks involving NPS use were: mixing various drugs, inappropriate dosing, lack of information prior to use, and the use of unknown substances. Several users spoke about effective strategies for reducing risks, such as obtaining information beforehand, using one's own implements and using only small quantities of unknown substances. Conclusions/Importance: The study revealed various factors based on which users decide to use NPS. Furthermore, users reported a number of problems resulting from NPS use, while risk reduction strategies are employed to a much lesser extent. Based on the results obtained, specific intervention efforts concerning NPS use and targeting specific groups of younger users were designed.

Prevalence of malaria and use of malaria risk reduction measures among resettled pregnant women in South Sudan

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dræbel, Tania; Gueth Kueil, Bill; Meyrowitsch, Dan Wolf

2013-01-01

Background: The study assessed aspects of malaria infection, prevention and treatment in a population of resettled pregnant women in South Sudan. Methods: During April and May 2008, a cross-sectional study was carried out to estimate malaria prevalence and to assess the use of malaria risk...... ¼ 3.20, 95% CI 1.26–8.16; p ¼ 0.015). Conclusions: The results suggest that educational attainment need not be very advanced to affect practices of malaria prevention and treatment. Primary school attendance was a stronger predictor for use of malaria risk reduction measures than any of the other...... selected background characteristics. Educational attainment, information and communication about malaria prevention and control play a pivotal role in increasing and improving use of malaria risk reduction measures....

Does mitigation save? Reviewing cost-benefit analyses of disaster risk reduction

OpenAIRE

Shreve, Cheney M.; Kelman, Ilan

2014-01-01

The benefit-cost-ratio (BCR), used in cost-benefit analysis (CBA), is an indicator that attempts to summarize the overall value for money of a project. Disaster costs continue to rise and the demand has increased to demonstrate the economic benefit of disaster risk reduction (DRR) to policy makers. This study compiles and compares original CBA case studies reporting DRR BCRs, without restrictions as to hazard type, location, scale, or other parameters. Many results were identified supporting ...

Mediation of an efficacious HIV risk reduction intervention for South African men.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Leary, Ann; Jemmott, John B; Jemmott, Loretta S; Bellamy, Scarlett; Icard, Larry D; Ngwane, Zolani

2015-10-01

"Men, Together Making a Difference!" is an HIV/STD risk-reduction intervention that significantly increased self-reported consistent condom use during vaginal intercourse compared with a health-promotion attention-control intervention among men (N = 1181) in Eastern Cape Province, South Africa. The present analyses were designed to identify mediators of the intervention's efficacy. The potential mediators were Social Cognitive Theory (SCT) constructs that the intervention targeted, including several aspects of condom-use self-efficacy, outcome expectancies, and knowledge. Mediation was assessed using a product-of-coefficients approach where an α path (the intervention's effect on the potential mediator) and a β path (the potential mediator's effect on the outcome of interest, adjusting for intervention) were estimated independently in a generalized estimating equations framework. Condom-use negotiation self-efficacy, technical-skill self-efficacy, and impulse-control self-efficacy were significant mediators. Although not mediators, descriptive norm and expected friends' approval of condom use predicted subsequent self-reported condom use, whereas the expected approval of sexual partner did not. The present results suggest that HIV/STD risk-reduction interventions that draw upon SCT and that address self-efficacy to negotiate condom use, to apply condoms correctly, and to exercise sufficient control when sexually aroused to use condoms may contribute to efforts to reduce sexual risk behavior among South African men. Future research must examine whether approaches that build normative support for condom use among men's friends are also efficacious.

Update on Risk Reduction Activities for a Liquid Advanced Booster for NASA's Space Launch System

Science.gov (United States)

Crocker, Andrew M.; Greene, William D.

2017-01-01

The stated goals of NASA's Research Announcement for the Space Launch System (SLS) Advanced Booster Engineering Demonstration and/or Risk Reduction (ABEDRR) are to reduce risks leading to an affordable Advanced Booster that meets the evolved capabilities of SLS and enable competition by mitigating targeted Advanced Booster risks to enhance SLS affordability. Dynetics, Inc. and Aerojet Rocketdyne (AR) formed a team to offer a wide-ranging set of risk reduction activities and full-scale, system-level demonstrations that support NASA's ABEDRR goals. During the ABEDRR effort, the Dynetics Team has modified flight-proven Apollo-Saturn F-1 engine components and subsystems to improve affordability and reliability (e.g., reduce parts counts, touch labor, or use lower cost manufacturing processes and materials). The team has built hardware to validate production costs and completed tests to demonstrate it can meet performance requirements. State-of-the-art manufacturing and processing techniques have been applied to the heritage F-1, resulting in a low recurring cost engine while retaining the benefits of Apollo-era experience. NASA test facilities have been used to perform low-cost risk-reduction engine testing. In early 2014, NASA and the Dynetics Team agreed to move additional large liquid oxygen/kerosene engine work under Dynetics' ABEDRR contract. Also led by AR, the objectives of this work are to demonstrate combustion stability and measure performance of a 500,000 lbf class Oxidizer-Rich Staged Combustion (ORSC) cycle main injector. A trade study was completed to investigate the feasibility, cost effectiveness, and technical maturity of a domestically-produced engine that could potentially both replace the RD-180 on Atlas V and satisfy NASA SLS payload-to-orbit requirements via an advanced booster application. Engine physical dimensions and performance parameters resulting from this study provide the system level requirements for the ORSC risk reduction test article

Sexual risk-reduction strategies among HIV-infected men receiving ART in Kibera, Nairobi.

Science.gov (United States)

Ragnarsson, Anders; Thorson, Anna; Dover, Paul; Carter, Jane; Ilako, Festus; Indalo, Dorcas; Ekstrom, Anna Mia

2011-03-01

This paper explores motivational factors and barriers to sexual behaviour change among men receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART). Twenty in-depth interviews were undertaken with male patients enrolled at the African Medical and Research Foundation clinic in Africa's largest urban informal settlement, Kibera in Nairobi, Kenya. All participants experienced prolonged and severe illness prior to the initiation of ART. Fear of symptom relapse was the main trigger for sexual behaviour change. Partner reduction was reported as a first option for behaviour change since this decision could be made by the individual. Condom use was perceived as more difficult as it had to be negotiated with female partners. Cultural norms regarding expectations for reproduction and marriage were not supportive of sexual risk-reduction strategies. Thus, local sociocultural contexts of HIV-infected people must be incorporated into the contextual adaptation and design of ART programmes and services as they have an over-riding influence on sexual behaviour and programme effectiveness. Also, HIV-prevention interventions need to address both personal, micro- and macro-level factors of behaviour to encourage individuals to take on sexual risk-reduction strategies. In order to achieve the anticipated preventive effect of ART, these issues are important for the donor community and policy-makers, who are the major providers of ART programme support within weak health systems in sub-Saharan Africa.

Investigating Absolute Value: A Real World Application

Science.gov (United States)

Kidd, Margaret; Pagni, David

2009-01-01

Making connections between various representations is important in mathematics. In this article, the authors discuss the numeric, algebraic, and graphical representations of sums of absolute values of linear functions. The initial explanations are accessible to all students who have experience graphing and who understand that absolute value simply…

Justice policy reform for high-risk juveniles: using science to achieve large-scale crime reduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Skeem, Jennifer L; Scott, Elizabeth; Mulvey, Edward P

2014-01-01

After a distinctly punitive era, a period of remarkable reform in juvenile crime regulation has begun. Practical urgency has fueled interest in both crime reduction and research on the prediction and malleability of criminal behavior. In this rapidly changing context, high-risk juveniles--the small proportion of the population where crime becomes concentrated--present a conundrum. Research indicates that these are precisely the individuals to treat intensively to maximize crime reduction, but there are both real and imagined barriers to doing so. Mitigation principles (during early adolescence, ages 10-13) and institutional placement or criminal court processing (during mid-late adolescence, ages 14-18) can prevent these juveniles from receiving interventions that would best protect public safety. In this review, we synthesize relevant research to help resolve this challenge in a manner that is consistent with the law's core principles. In our view, early adolescence offers unique opportunities for risk reduction that could (with modifications) be realized in the juvenile justice system in cooperation with other social institutions.

Strategies for regular segmented reductions on GPU

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Rasmus Wriedt; Henriksen, Troels

2017-01-01

We present and evaluate an implementation technique for regular segmented reductions on GPUs. Existing techniques tend to be either consistent in performance but relatively inefficient in absolute terms, or optimised for specific workloads and thereby exhibiting bad performance for certain input...... is in the context of the Futhark compiler, the implementation technique is applicable to any library or language that has a need for segmented reductions. We evaluate the technique on four microbenchmarks, two of which we also compare to implementations in the CUB library for GPU programming, as well as on two...

Update on Risk Reduction Activities for a Liquid Advanced Booster for NASA's Space Launch System

Science.gov (United States)

Crocker, Andrew M.; Doering, Kimberly B; Meadows, Robert G.; Lariviere, Brian W.; Graham, Jerry B.

2015-01-01

The stated goals of NASA's Research Announcement for the Space Launch System (SLS) Advanced Booster Engineering Demonstration and/or Risk Reduction (ABEDRR) are to reduce risks leading to an affordable Advanced Booster that meets the evolved capabilities of SLS; and enable competition by mitigating targeted Advanced Booster risks to enhance SLS affordability. Dynetics, Inc. and Aerojet Rocketdyne (AR) formed a team to offer a wide-ranging set of risk reduction activities and full-scale, system-level demonstrations that support NASA's ABEDRR goals. For NASA's SLS ABEDRR procurement, Dynetics and AR formed a team to offer a series of full-scale risk mitigation hardware demonstrations for an affordable booster approach that meets the evolved capabilities of the SLS. To establish a basis for the risk reduction activities, the Dynetics Team developed a booster design that takes advantage of the flight-proven Apollo-Saturn F-1. Using NASA's vehicle assumptions for the SLS Block 2, a two-engine, F-1-based booster design delivers 150 mT (331 klbm) payload to LEO, 20 mT (44 klbm) above NASA's requirements. This enables a low-cost, robust approach to structural design. During the ABEDRR effort, the Dynetics Team has modified proven Apollo-Saturn components and subsystems to improve affordability and reliability (e.g., reduce parts counts, touch labor, or use lower cost manufacturing processes and materials). The team has built hardware to validate production costs and completed tests to demonstrate it can meet performance requirements. State-of-the-art manufacturing and processing techniques have been applied to the heritage F-1, resulting in a low recurring cost engine while retaining the benefits of Apollo-era experience. NASA test facilities have been used to perform low-cost risk-reduction engine testing. In early 2014, NASA and the Dynetics Team agreed to move additional large liquid oxygen/kerosene engine work under Dynetics' ABEDRR contract. Also led by AR, the

Science and Technology Networks : A Helping Hand to Boost Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Trogrlić, RobertŠakić; Cumiskey, Lydia; Triyanti, Annisa; Duncan, Melanie J.; Eltinay, Nuha; Hogeboom, Rick J.; Jasuja, Mansi; Meechaiya, Chinaporn; Pickering, Christina J.; Murray, Virginia

2017-01-01

The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 underlines the importance of Science and Technology (S&T) and S&T networks for effective disaster risk reduction (DRR). The knowledge of existing S&T networks and their exact role in DRR, however, is limited. This opinion piece initiates a

Approach To Absolute Zero

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

more and more difficult to remove heat as one approaches absolute zero. This is the ... A new and active branch of engineering ... This temperature is called the critical temperature, Te' For sulfur dioxide the critical ..... adsorbent charcoal.

A critical evaluation of secondary cancer risk models applied to Monte Carlo dose distributions of 2-dimensional, 3-dimensional conformal and hybrid intensity-modulated radiation therapy for breast cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Joosten, A; Bochud, F; Moeckli, R

2014-01-01

The comparison of radiotherapy techniques regarding secondary cancer risk has yielded contradictory results possibly stemming from the many different approaches used to estimate risk. The purpose of this study was to make a comprehensive evaluation of different available risk models applied to detailed whole-body dose distributions computed by Monte Carlo for various breast radiotherapy techniques including conventional open tangents, 3D conformal wedged tangents and hybrid intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT). First, organ-specific linear risk models developed by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) and the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) VII committee were applied to mean doses for remote organs only and all solid organs. Then, different general non-linear risk models were applied to the whole body dose distribution. Finally, organ-specific non-linear risk models for the lung and breast were used to assess the secondary cancer risk for these two specific organs. A total of 32 different calculated absolute risks resulted in a broad range of values (between 0.1% and 48.5%) underlying the large uncertainties in absolute risk calculation. The ratio of risk between two techniques has often been proposed as a more robust assessment of risk than the absolute risk. We found that the ratio of risk between two techniques could also vary substantially considering the different approaches to risk estimation. Sometimes the ratio of risk between two techniques would range between values smaller and larger than one, which then translates into inconsistent results on the potential higher risk of one technique compared to another. We found however that the hybrid IMRT technique resulted in a systematic reduction of risk compared to the other techniques investigated even though the magnitude of this reduction varied substantially with the different approaches investigated. Based on the epidemiological data available, a reasonable

Design and characterization for absolute x-ray spectrometry in the 100-10,000 eV region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Henke, B.L.

1986-08-01

Reviewed here are the design and characterization procedures used in our program for developing absolute x-ray spectrometry in the 100 to 10,000 eV region. Described are the selection and experimental calibration of the x-ray filters, mirror momochromators, crystal/multilayer analyzers, and the photographic (time integrating) and photoelectric (time resolving) position-sensitive detectors. Analytical response functions have been derived that characterize the energy dependence of the mirror and crystal/multilayer reflectivities and of the photographic film and photocathode sensitivities. These response functions permit rapid, small-computer reduction of the experimental spectra to absolute spectra (measured in photons per stearadian from the source for radiative transitions at indicated photon energies). Our x-ray spectrographic systems are being applied to the diagnostics of pulsed, high temperature plasma sources in laser fusion and x-ray laser research. 15 refs., 27 figs

Absolute spectrophotometry of Nova Cygni 1975

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kontizas, E.; Kontizas, M.; Smyth, M.J.

1976-01-01

Radiometric photoelectric spectrophotometry of Nova Cygni 1975 was carried out on 1975 August 31, September 2, 3. α Lyr was used as reference star and its absolute spectral energy distribution was used to reduce the spectrophotometry of the nova to absolute units. Emission strengths of Hα, Hβ, Hγ (in W cm -2 ) were derived. The Balmer decrement Hα:Hβ:Hγ was compared with theory, and found to deviate less than had been reported for an earlier nova. (author)

The Pragmatics of "Unruly" Dative Absolutes in Early Slavic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel E. Collins

2011-08-01

Full Text Available This chapter examines some uses of the dative absolute in Old Church Slavonic and in early recensional Slavonic texts that depart from notions of how Indo-European absolute constructions should behave, either because they have subjects coreferential with the (putative main-clause subjects or because they function as if they were main clauses in their own right. Such "noncanonical" absolutes have generally been written off as mechanistic translations or as mistakes by scribes who did not understand the proper uses of the construction. In reality, the problem is not with literalistic translators or incompetent scribes but with the definition of the construction itself; it is quite possible to redefine the Early Slavic dative absolute in a way that accounts for the supposedly deviant cases. While the absolute is generally dependent semantically on an adjacent unit of discourse, it should not always be regarded as subordinated syntactically. There are good grounds for viewing some absolutes not as dependent clauses but as independent sentences whose collateral character is an issue not of syntax but of the pragmatics of discourse.

The cardiovascular event reduction tool (CERT)--a simplified cardiac risk prediction model developed from the West of Scotland Coronary Prevention Study (WOSCOPS).

Science.gov (United States)

L'Italien, G; Ford, I; Norrie, J; LaPuerta, P; Ehreth, J; Jackson, J; Shepherd, J

2000-03-15

The clinical decision to treat hypercholesterolemia is premised on an awareness of patient risk, and cardiac risk prediction models offer a practical means of determining such risk. However, these models are based on observational cohorts where estimates of the treatment benefit are largely inferred. The West of Scotland Coronary Prevention Study (WOSCOPS) provides an opportunity to develop a risk-benefit prediction model from the actual observed primary event reduction seen in the trial. Five-year Cox model risk estimates were derived from all WOSCOPS subjects (n = 6,595 men, aged 45 to 64 years old at baseline) using factors previously shown to be predictive of definite fatal coronary heart disease or nonfatal myocardial infarction. Model risk factors included age, diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol/ high-density lipoprotein ratio (TC/HDL), current smoking, diabetes, family history of fatal coronary heart disease, nitrate use or angina, and treatment (placebo/ 40-mg pravastatin). All risk factors were expressed as categorical variables to facilitate risk assessment. Risk estimates were incorporated into a simple, hand-held slide rule or risk tool. Risk estimates were identified for 5-year age bands (45 to 65 years), 4 categories of TC/HDL ratio ( or = 7.5), 2 levels of diastolic blood pressure ( or = 90 mm Hg), from 0 to 3 additional risk factors (current smoking, diabetes, family history of premature fatal coronary heart disease, nitrate use or angina), and pravastatin treatment. Five-year risk estimates ranged from 2% in very low-risk subjects to 61% in the very high-risk subjects. Risk reduction due to pravastatin treatment averaged 31%. Thus, the Cardiovascular Event Reduction Tool (CERT) is a risk prediction model derived from the WOSCOPS trial. Its use will help physicians identify patients who will benefit from cholesterol reduction.

Application of Probabilistic Modeling to Quantify the Reduction Levels of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Attributable to Chronic Aflatoxins Exposure.

Science.gov (United States)

Wambui, Joseph M; Karuri, Edward G; Ojiambo, Julia A; Njage, Patrick M K

2017-01-01

Epidemiological studies show a definite connection between areas of high aflatoxin content and a high occurrence of human hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Hepatitis B virus in individuals further increases the risk of HCC. The two risk factors are prevalent in rural Kenya and continuously predispose the rural populations to HCC. A quantitative cancer risk assessment therefore quantified the levels at which potential pre- and postharvest interventions reduce the HCC risk attributable to consumption of contaminated maize and groundnuts. The assessment applied a probabilistic model to derive probability distributions of HCC cases and percentage reductions levels of the risk from secondary data. Contaminated maize and groundnuts contributed to 1,847 ± 514 and 158 ± 52 HCC cases per annum, respectively. The total contribution of both foods to the risk was additive as it resulted in 2,000 ± 518 cases per annum. Consumption and contamination levels contributed significantly to the risk whereby lower age groups were most affected. Nonetheless, pre- and postharvest interventions might reduce the risk by 23.0-83.4% and 4.8-95.1%, respectively. Therefore, chronic exposure to aflatoxins increases the HCC risk in rural Kenya, but a significant reduction of the risk can be achieved by applying specific pre- and postharvest interventions.

Risk reduction: perioperative smoking intervention

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Ann; Tønnesen, Hanne

2006-01-01

Smoking is a well-known risk factor for perioperative complications. Smokers experience an increased incidence of respiratory complications during anaesthesia and an increased risk of postoperative cardiopulmonary complications, infections and impaired wound healing. Smokers have a greater risk...... of postoperative intensive care admission. Even passive smoking is associated with increased risk at operation. Preoperative smoking intervention 6-8 weeks before surgery can reduce the complications risk significantly. Four weeks of abstinence from smoking seems to improve wound healing. An intensive, individual...... approach to smoking intervention results in a significantly better postoperative outcome. Future research should focus upon the effect of a shorter period of preoperative smoking cessation. All smokers admitted for surgery should be informed of the increased risk, recommended preoperative smoking cessation...

Designing a Physical Security System for Risk Reduction in a Hypothetical Nuclear Facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saleh, A.A.; Abd Elaziz, M.

2017-01-01

Physical security in a nuclear facility means detection, prevention and response to threat, the ft, sabotage, unauthorized access and illegal transfer involving radioactive and nuclear material. This paper proposes a physical security system designing concepts to reduce the risk associated with variant threats to a nuclear facility. This paper presents a study of the unauthorized removal and sabotage in a hypothetical nuclear facility considering deter, delay and response layers. More over, the study involves performing any required upgrading to the security system by investigating the nuclear facility layout and considering all physical security layers design to enhance the weakness for risk reduction

Harm Reduction as “Continuum Care” in Alcohol Abuse Disorder

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Icro Maremmani

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Alcohol abuse is one of the most important risk factors for health and is a major cause of death and morbidity. Despite this, only about one-tenth of individuals with alcohol abuse disorders receive therapeutic intervention and specific rehabilitation. Among the various dichotomies that limit an effective approach to the problem of alcohol use disorder treatment, one of the most prominent is integrated treatment versus harm reduction. For years, these two divergent strategies have been considered to be opposite poles of different philosophies of intervention. One is bound to the search for methods that aim to lead the subject to complete abstinence; the other prioritizes a progressive decline in substance use, with maximum reduction in the damage that is correlated with curtailing that use. Reduction of alcohol intake does not require any particular setting, but does require close collaboration between the general practitioner, specialized services for addiction, alcohology services and psychiatry. In patients who reach that target, significant savings in terms of health and social costs can be achieved. Harm reduction is a desirable target, even from an economic point of view. At the present state of neuroscientific knowledge, it is possible to go one step further in the logic that led to the integration of psychosocial and pharmacological approaches, by attempting to remove the shadows of social judgment that, at present, are aiming for a course of treatment that is directed towards absolute abstention.

Absolutyzm i pluralizm (ABSOLUTISM AND PLURALISM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Renata Ziemińska

2005-06-01

Full Text Available Alethic absolutism is a thesis that propositions can not be more or less true, that they are true or false for ever (if true at all and that their truth is independent on any circumstances of their assertion. In negative version, easier to defend, alethic absolutism claims the very same proposition can not be both true and false relative to circumstances of its assertion. Simple alethic pluralism is a thesis that we have many concepts of truth. It is a very good way to dissolve the controversy between alethic relativism and absolutism. Many philosophical concepts of truth are the best reason for such pluralism. If concept is meaning of a name, we have many concepts of truth because the name 'truth' was understood in many ways. The variety of meanings however can be superficial. Under it we can find one idea of truth expressed in correspondence truism or schema (T. The content of the truism is too poor to be content of anyone concept of truth, so it usually is connected with some picture of the world (ontology and we have so many concepts of truth as many pictures of the world. The authoress proposes the hierarchical pluralism with privileged classic (or correspondence in weak sense concept of truth as absolute property.Other author's publications:

Introducing the Mean Absolute Deviation "Effect" Size

Science.gov (United States)

Gorard, Stephen

2015-01-01

This paper revisits the use of effect sizes in the analysis of experimental and similar results, and reminds readers of the relative advantages of the mean absolute deviation as a measure of variation, as opposed to the more complex standard deviation. The mean absolute deviation is easier to use and understand, and more tolerant of extreme…

Assessing social vulnerability to drought in South Africa: Policy implication for drought risk reduction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fumiso Muyambo

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of this article was to assess and identify social vulnerability of communal farmers to drought in the O.R. Tambo district in the Eastern Cape province of South Africa using a survey data and social vulnerability index (SoVI. Eleven social vulnerability indicators were identified using Bogardi, Birkman and Cardona conceptual framework. The result found that an SoVI estimated for O.R. Tambo district was very high with a Likert scale of 5 for cultural values and practices, security or safety, social networks, social dependence, preparedness strategies and psychological stress attributed for the high value of social vulnerability to drought. Indigenous knowledge and education had an SoVI value of 2, which was of low vulnerability, contributing positively to resilience to drought. The study also found that government involvement in drought risk reduction is limited; as a result, the study recommends that a national, provincial and district municipalities policy on drought risk reduction and mitigation should be developed.

Moderation and Mediation of an Efficacious Sexual Risk-Reduction Intervention for South African Adolescents

Science.gov (United States)

O’Leary, Ann; Jemmott, John B.; Jemmott, Loretta Sweet; Bellamy, Scarlett; Ngwane, Zolani; Icard, Larry

2015-01-01

Background “Let Us Protect Our Future” is a sexual risk-reduction intervention for sixth-grade adolescents in South Africa. Tested in a cluster-randomized controlled trial, the intervention significantly reduced self-reported intercourse and unprotected intercourse during a 12-month follow-up period. Purpose The present analyses were conducted to identify moderators of the intervention’s efficacy as well as which theory-based variables mediated the intervention’s effects. Methods: Intervention efficacy over the 3-, 6-, and 12-month follow-ups was tested using generalized estimating equation (GEE) models. Results Living with their father in the home, parental strictness, and religiosity moderated the efficacy of the intervention in reducing unprotected intercourse. Self-efficacy to avoid risky situations and expected parental disapproval of their having intercourse, derived from Social Cognitive Theory, significantly mediated the intervention’s effect on abstinence. Conclusions This is the first study to demonstrate that Social Cognitive variables mediate the efficacy of a sexual risk-reduction intervention among South African adolescents. PMID:22618963

How can health care organisations make and justify decisions about risk reduction? Lessons from a cross-industry review and a health care stakeholder consensus development process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sujan, Mark A.; Habli, Ibrahim; Kelly, Tim P.; Gühnemann, Astrid; Pozzi, Simone; Johnson, Christopher W.

2017-01-01

Interventions to reduce risk often have an associated cost. In UK industries decisions about risk reduction are made and justified within a shared regulatory framework that requires that risk be reduced as low as reasonably practicable. In health care no such regulatory framework exists, and the practice of making decisions about risk reduction is varied and lacks transparency. Can health care organisations learn from relevant industry experiences about making and justifying risk reduction decisions? This paper presents lessons from a qualitative study undertaken with 21 participants from five industries about how such decisions are made and justified in UK industry. Recommendations were developed based on a consensus development exercise undertaken with 20 health care stakeholders. The paper argues that there is a need in health care to develop a regulatory framework and an agreed process for managing explicitly the trade-off between risk reduction and cost. The framework should include guidance about a health care specific notion of acceptable levels of risk, guidance about standardised risk reduction interventions, it should include regulatory incentives for health care organisations to reduce risk, and it should encourage the adoption of an approach for documenting explicitly an organisation's risk position. - Highlights: • Empirical description of industry perceptions on making risk reduction decisions. • Health care consensus development identified five recommendations. • Risk concept should be better integrated into safety management. • Education and awareness about risk concept are required. • Health systems need to start a dialogue about acceptable levels of risk.

Is there evidence showing that salt intake reduction reduces cardiovascular morbidity and mortality risk?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fernando Lanas

2012-02-01

Full Text Available A recent systematic review of Cochrane collaboration about the effect of reducing dietary salt concluded that “there is still insufficient power to exclude clinically important effects of reduced dietary salt on mortality or cardiovascular morbidity in normotensive or hypertensive populations”. This conclusion has generated an important debate, because the estimation that salt reduction can prevent 24% of strokes and 18% of myocardial infarctions has decided the health authorities of several nations to implement salt consumption reduction programs. The review of ecological studies and clinical trials allow to conclude that a reduction in salt consumption reduces blood pressure and methodological well conducted cohort studies has shown that cardiovascular events risk decreases progressively with lower levels of blood pressure. Combining this two finding we can assume that population should benefice from a decrease on salt consumption although there are no studies that shown a reduction in cardiovascular events in population with high sodium intake when dietary salt is reduced.

Therapeutical approach to plasma homocysteine and cardiovascular risk reduction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcello Ciaccio

2008-03-01

Full Text Available Marcello Ciaccio, Giulia Bivona, Chiara BelliaDepartment of Medical Biotechnologies and Forensic Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Palermo, ItalyAbstract: Homocysteine is a sulfur-containing aminoacid produced during metabolism of methionine. Since 1969 the relationship between altered homocysteine metabolism and both coronary and peripheral atherotrombosis is known; in recent years experimental evidences have shown that elevated plasma levels of homocysteine are associated with an increased risk of atherosclerosis and cardiovascular ischemic events. Several mechanisms by which elevated homocysteine impairs vascular function have been proposed, including impairment of endothelial function, production of reactive oxygen species (ROS and consequent oxidation of low-density lipids. Endothelial function is altered in subjects with hyperhomocysteinemia, and endothelial dysfunction is correlated with plasma levels of homocysteine. Folic acid and B vitamins, required for remethylation of homocysteine to methionine, are the most important dietary determinants of homocysteine and daily supplementation typically lowers plasma homocysteine levels; it is still unclear whether the decreased plasma levels of homocysteine through diet or drugs may be paralleled by a reduction in cardiovascular risk.Keywords: homocysteine, MTHFR, cardiovascular disease, folate, B vitamin

Reduction revisited | Ruttkamp | South African Journal of Philosophy

African Journals Online (AJOL)

... of background knowledge containing heuristic information. The flexibility of this definition and the fact that it is not absolute, i.e. that the relation of reduction may be retracted or allowed to shift without fuss, add at least an interesting alternative factor to current materialist debates. South African Journal of Philosophy Vol.

Absolute calibration in vivo measurement systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kruchten, D.A.; Hickman, D.P.

1991-02-01

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) is currently investigating a new method for obtaining absolute calibration factors for radiation measurement systems used to measure internally deposited radionuclides in vivo. Absolute calibration of in vivo measurement systems will eliminate the need to generate a series of human surrogate structures (i.e., phantoms) for calibrating in vivo measurement systems. The absolute calibration of in vivo measurement systems utilizes magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to define physiological structure, size, and composition. The MRI image provides a digitized representation of the physiological structure, which allows for any mathematical distribution of radionuclides within the body. Using Monte Carlo transport codes, the emission spectrum from the body is predicted. The in vivo measurement equipment is calibrated using the Monte Carlo code and adjusting for the intrinsic properties of the detection system. The calibration factors are verified using measurements of existing phantoms and previously obtained measurements of human volunteers. 8 refs

Competing risk theory and radiation risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Groer, P.G.

1980-01-01

New statistical procedures are applied to estimate cumulative distribution functions (c.d.f.), force of mortality, and latent period for radiation-induced malignancies. It is demonstrated that correction for competing risks influences the shape of dose response curves, estimates of the latent period, and of the risk from ionizing radiations. The equivalence of the following concepts is demonstrated: force of mortality, hazard rate, and age or time specific incidence. This equivalence makes it possible to use procedures from reliability analysis and demography for radiation risk assessment. Two methods used by reliability analysts - hazard plotting and total time on test plots - are discussed in some detail and applied to characterize the hazard rate in radiation carcinogenesis. C.d.f.'s with increasing, decreasing, or constant hazard rate have different shapes and are shown to yield different dose-response curves for continuous irradiation. Absolute risk is shown to be a sound estimator only if the force of mortality is constant for the exposed and the control group. Dose-response relationships that use the absolute risk as a measure for the effect turn out to be special cases of dose-response relationships that measure the effect with cumulative incidence. (H.K.)

An office-based approach to emotional and behavioral risk factor reduction for cardiovascular disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Hochman, Daniel M; Feinstein, Robert E; Stauter, Erinn C

2013-01-01

There are many psychological risk factors for cardiovascular disease, and the ability to reduce mortality depends on an ability to integrate care of these risk factors with traditional Framingham cardiovascular risk and use them both in routine practice. The aim of this article is to provide an update of all the major emotional and behavioral cardiovascular risk factors along with a practical treatment model for implementation. First, we provide a review of major emotional and behavioral cardiovascular risk factors, the associated primary effect, and proposed mechanism of action. Second, we provide an office-based approach to cardiovascular risk factor reduction and methods of reducing barriers to implementation, called Prevention Oriented Primary Care-Abridged. The approach integrates several forms of detection, assessment using the 3As (ask, assess, assist), and Stages of Change approaches, and subsequent efficient and targeted treatment with either Motivational Interviewing or further office intervention. A case example is provided to help illustrate this process.

Evaluation of a Peer-Led Drug Abuse Risk Reduction Project for Runaway/Homeless Youths.

Science.gov (United States)

Fors, Stuart W.; Jarvis, Sara

1995-01-01

Evaluates the Drug Prevention in Youth risk reduction program that was implemented in shelters for runaway/homeless youths in the southeastern United States. An evaluation strategy was developed allowing for comparisons between peer-led, adult-led and nonintervention groups. Well-trained and motivated peer/near-peer leaders made particularly…

Incorrect Weighting of Absolute Performance in Self-Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Jeffrey, Scott A.; Cozzarin, Brian

Students spend much of their life in an attempt to assess their aptitude for numerous tasks. For example, they expend a great deal of effort to determine their academic standing given a distribution of grades. This research finds that students use their absolute performance, or percentage correct as a yardstick for their self-assessment, even when relative standing is much more informative. An experiment shows that this reliance on absolute performance for self-evaluation causes a misallocation of time and financial resources. Reasons for this inappropriate responsiveness to absolute performance are explored.

Existential risks: exploring a robust risk reduction strategy.

Science.gov (United States)

Jebari, Karim

2015-06-01

A small but growing number of studies have aimed to understand, assess and reduce existential risks, or risks that threaten the continued existence of mankind. However, most attention has been focused on known and tangible risks. This paper proposes a heuristic for reducing the risk of black swan extinction events. These events are, as the name suggests, stochastic and unforeseen when they happen. Decision theory based on a fixed model of possible outcomes cannot properly deal with this kind of event. Neither can probabilistic risk analysis. This paper will argue that the approach that is referred to as engineering safety could be applied to reducing the risk from black swan extinction events. It will also propose a conceptual sketch of how such a strategy may be implemented: isolated, self-sufficient, and continuously manned underground refuges. Some characteristics of such refuges are also described, in particular the psychosocial aspects. Furthermore, it is argued that this implementation of the engineering safety strategy safety barriers would be effective and plausible and could reduce the risk of an extinction event in a wide range of possible (known and unknown) scenarios. Considering the staggering opportunity cost of an existential catastrophe, such strategies ought to be explored more vigorously.

Earthquake risk reduction in the United States: An assessment of selected user needs and recommendations for the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1994-12-31

This Assessment was conducted to improve the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) by providing NEHRP agencies with information that supports their user-oriented setting of crosscutting priorities in the NEHRP strategic planning process. The primary objective of this Assessment was to take a ``snapshot`` evaluation of the needs of selected users throughout the major program elements of NEHRP. Secondary objectives were to conduct an assessment of the knowledge that exists (or is being developed by NEHRP) to support earthquake risk reduction, and to begin a process of evaluating how NEHRP is meeting user needs. An identification of NEHRP`s strengths also resulted from the effort, since those strengths demonstrate successful methods that may be useful to NEHRP in the future. These strengths are identified in the text, and many of them represent important achievements since the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act was passed in 1977.

Investigating maternal risk factors as potential targets of intervention to reduce socioeconomic inequality in small for gestational age: a population-based study.

Science.gov (United States)

Hayward, Irene; Malcoe, Lorraine Halinka; Cleathero, Lesley A; Janssen, Patricia A; Lanphear, Bruce P; Hayes, Michael V; Mattman, Andre; Pampalon, Robert; Venners, Scott A

2012-06-13

The major aim of this study was to investigate whether maternal risk factors associated with socioeconomic status and small for gestational age (SGA) might be viable targets of interventions to reduce differential risk of SGA by socioeconomic status (socioeconomic SGA inequality) in the metropolitan area of Vancouver, Canada. This study included 59,039 live, singleton births in the Vancouver Census Metropolitan Area (Vancouver) from January 1, 2006 to September 17, 2009. To identify an indicator of socioeconomic SGA inequality, we used hierarchical logistic regression to model SGA by area-level variables from the Canadian census. We then modelled SGA by area-level average income plus established maternal risk factors for SGA and calculated population attributable SGA risk percentages (PAR%) for each variable. Associations of maternal risk factors for SGA with average income were investigated to identify those that might contribute to SGA inequality. Finally, we estimated crude reductions in the percentage and absolute differences in SGA risks between highest and lowest average income quintiles that would result if interventions on maternal risk factors successfully equalized them across income levels or eliminated them altogether. Average income produced the most linear and statistically significant indicator of socioeconomic SGA inequality with 8.9% prevalence of SGA in the lowest income quintile compared to 5.6% in the highest. The adjusted PAR% of SGA for variables were: bottom four quintiles of height (51%), first birth (32%), bottom four quintiles of average income (14%), oligohydramnios (7%), underweight or hypertension, (6% each), smoking (3%) and placental disorder (1%). Shorter height, underweight and smoking during pregnancy had higher prevalence in lower income groups. Crude models assuming equalization of risk factors across income levels or elimination altogether indicated little potential change in relative socioeconomic SGA inequality and reduction

Mammographic Density Phenotypes and Risk of Breast Cancer: A Meta-analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Graff, Rebecca E.; Ursin, Giske; dos Santos Silva, Isabel; McCormack, Valerie; Baglietto, Laura; Vachon, Celine; Bakker, Marije F.; Giles, Graham G.; Chia, Kee Seng; Czene, Kamila; Eriksson, Louise; Hall, Per; Hartman, Mikael; Warren, Ruth M. L.; Hislop, Greg; Chiarelli, Anna M.; Hopper, John L.; Krishnan, Kavitha; Li, Jingmei; Li, Qing; Pagano, Ian; Rosner, Bernard A.; Wong, Chia Siong; Scott, Christopher; Stone, Jennifer; Maskarinec, Gertraud; Boyd, Norman F.; van Gils, Carla H.

2014-01-01

Background Fibroglandular breast tissue appears dense on mammogram, whereas fat appears nondense. It is unclear whether absolute or percentage dense area more strongly predicts breast cancer risk and whether absolute nondense area is independently associated with risk. Methods We conducted a meta-analysis of 13 case–control studies providing results from logistic regressions for associations between one standard deviation (SD) increments in mammographic density phenotypes and breast cancer risk. We used random-effects models to calculate pooled odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). All tests were two-sided with P less than .05 considered to be statistically significant. Results Among premenopausal women (n = 1776 case patients; n = 2834 control subjects), summary odds ratios were 1.37 (95% CI = 1.29 to 1.47) for absolute dense area, 0.78 (95% CI = 0.71 to 0.86) for absolute nondense area, and 1.52 (95% CI = 1.39 to 1.66) for percentage dense area when pooling estimates adjusted for age, body mass index, and parity. Corresponding odds ratios among postmenopausal women (n = 6643 case patients; n = 11187 control subjects) were 1.38 (95% CI = 1.31 to 1.44), 0.79 (95% CI = 0.73 to 0.85), and 1.53 (95% CI = 1.44 to 1.64). After additional adjustment for absolute dense area, associations between absolute nondense area and breast cancer became attenuated or null in several studies and summary odds ratios became 0.82 (95% CI = 0.71 to 0.94; P heterogeneity = .02) for premenopausal and 0.85 (95% CI = 0.75 to 0.96; P heterogeneity women. Conclusions The results suggest that percentage dense area is a stronger breast cancer risk factor than absolute dense area. Absolute nondense area was inversely associated with breast cancer risk, but it is unclear whether the association is independent of absolute dense area. PMID:24816206

Harm reduction in U.S. tobacco control: Constructions in textual news media.

Science.gov (United States)

Eversman, Michael H

2015-06-01

U.S. tobacco control has long emphasized abstinence, yet quitting smoking is hard and cessation rates low. Tobacco harm reduction alternatives espouse substituting cigarettes with safer nicotine and tobacco products. Policy shifts embracing tobacco harm reduction have increased media attention, yet it remains controversial. Discourse theory posits language as fluid, and socially constructed meaning as neither absolute nor neutral, elevating certain views over others while depicting "discursive struggle" between them. While an abstinence-based framework dominates tobacco policy, discourse theory suggests constructions of nicotine and tobacco use can change, for example by positioning tobacco harm reduction more favorably. Textual discourse analysis was used to explore constructions of tobacco harm reduction in 478 (308 original) U.S. textual news media articles spanning 1996-2014. Using keyword database sampling, retrieved articles were analyzed first as discrete recording units and then to identify emergent thematic content. Constructions of tobacco harm reduction shifted over this time, revealing tension among industry and policy interests through competing definitions of tobacco harm reduction, depictions of its underlying science, and accounts of regulatory matters including tobacco industry support for harm reduction and desired marketing and taxation legislation. Heightened salience surrounding tobacco harm reduction and electronic cigarettes suggests their greater acceptance in U.S. tobacco control. Various media depictions construct harm reduction as a temporary means to cessation, and conflict with other constructions of it that place no subjective value on continued "safer" tobacco/nicotine use. Constructions of science largely obscure claims of the veracity of tobacco harm reduction, with conflict surrounding appropriate public health benchmarks for tobacco policy and health risks of nicotine use. Taxation policies and e-cigarette pricing relative to

A competing risk approach for the European Heart SCORE model based on cause-specific and all-cause mortality

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Støvring, Henrik; Harmsen, Charlotte G; Wisløff, Torbjørn

2013-01-01

for older individuals. When non-CVD mortality was assumed unaffected by smoking status, the absolute risk reduction due to statin treatment ranged from 0.0% to 3.5%, whereas the gain in expected residual lifetime ranged from 3 to 11 months. Statin effectiveness increased for non-smokers and declined...... pressure, and total cholesterol level. The SCORE model, however, is not mathematically consistent and does not estimate all-cause mortality. Our aim is to modify the SCORE model to allow consistent estimation of both CVD-specific and all-cause mortality. Methods: Using a competing risk approach, we first...

Evidence for Absolute Moral Opposition to Genetically Modified Food in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Scott, Sydney E; Inbar, Yoel; Rozin, Paul

2016-05-01

Public opposition to genetic modification (GM) technology in the food domain is widespread (Frewer et al., 2013). In a survey of U.S. residents representative of the population on gender, age, and income, 64% opposed GM, and 71% of GM opponents (45% of the entire sample) were "absolutely" opposed-that is, they agreed that GM should be prohibited no matter the risks and benefits. "Absolutist" opponents were more disgust sensitive in general and more disgusted by the consumption of genetically modified food than were non-absolutist opponents or supporters. Furthermore, disgust predicted support for legal restrictions on genetically modified foods, even after controlling for explicit risk-benefit assessments. This research suggests that many opponents are evidence insensitive and will not be influenced by arguments about risks and benefits. © The Author(s) 2016.

Preconceptional motivational interviewing interventions to reduce alcohol-exposed pregnancy risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Ingersoll, Karen S; Ceperich, Sherry D; Hettema, Jennifer E; Farrell-Carnahan, Leah; Penberthy, J Kim

2013-04-01

Alcohol exposed pregnancy (AEP) is a leading cause of preventable birth defects. While randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have shown that multi-session motivational interviewing-based interventions reduce AEP risk, a one-session intervention could facilitate broader implementation. The purposes of this study were to: (1) test a one-session motivational AEP prevention intervention for community women and (2) compare outcomes to previous RCTs. Participants at risk for AEP (N=217) were randomized to motivational interviewing+assessment feedback (EARLY), informational video, or informational brochure conditions. Outcomes were drinks per drinking day (DDD), ineffective contraception rate, and AEP risk at 3 and 6 months. All interventions were associated with decreased DDD, ineffective contraception rate, and AEP risk. Participants who received EARLY had larger absolute risk reductions in ineffective contraception and AEP risk, but not DDD. Effect sizes were compared to previous RCTs. The one-session EARLY intervention had less powerful effects than multi-session AEP prevention interventions among community women, but may provide a new option in a continuum of preventive care. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Communication products for the Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario: Chapter K in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Perry, Suzanne C.

2013-01-01

Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR), like its predecessor the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project, has a mission to increase the use of science by decision-makers of all kinds. Thus, an important part of any SAFRR scenario is development of products that enhance usability of the science. In this tsunami scenario, the focus has been on development of three kinds of products: products that augment typical outputs of scientific studies, such as reports, to make the results of the scenario more relevant and usable to nonscientists; products that distill local impacts and allow users in specific locales to identify which aspects of the broad regional study apply to their local area; and

Reduction of radiation risks in patients undergoing some X-ray examinations by using optimal projections: A Monte Carlo program-based mathematical calculation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A Chaparian

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The objectives of this paper were calculation and comparison of the effective doses, the risks of exposure-induced cancer, and dose reduction in the gonads for male and female patients in different projections of some X-ray examinations. Radiographies of lumbar spine [in the eight projections of anteroposterior (AP, posteroanterior (PA, right lateral (RLAT, left lateral (LLAT, right anterior-posterior oblique (RAO, left anterior-posterior oblique (LAO, right posterior-anterior oblique (RPO, and left posterior-anterior oblique (LPO], abdomen (in the two projections of AP and PA, and pelvis (in the two projections of AP and PA were investigated. A solid-state dosimeter was used for the measuring of the entrance skin exposure. A Monte Carlo program was used for calculation of effective doses, the risks of radiation-induced cancer, and doses to the gonads related to the different projections. Results of this study showed that PA projection of abdomen, lumbar spine, and pelvis radiographies caused 50%-57% lower effective doses than AP projection and 50%-60% reduction in radiation risks. Also use of LAO projection of lumbar spine X-ray examination caused 53% lower effective dose than RPO projection and 56% and 63% reduction in radiation risk for male and female, respectively, and RAO projection caused 28% lower effective dose than LPO projection and 52% and 39% reduction in radiation risk for males and females, respectively. About dose reduction in the gonads, using of the PA position rather than AP in the radiographies of the abdomen, lumbar spine, and pelvis can result in reduction of the ovaries doses in women, 38%, 31%, and 25%, respectively and reduction of the testicles doses in males, 76%, 86%, and 94%, respectively. Also for oblique projections of lumbar spine X-ray examination, with employment of LAO rather than RPO and also RAO rather than LPO, demonstrated 22% and 13% reductions to the ovaries doses and 66% and 54% reductions in the

Absolute instrumental neutron activation analysis at Lawrence Livermore Laboratory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heft, R.E.

1977-01-01

The Environmental Science Division at Lawrence Livermore Laboratory has in use a system of absolute Instrumental Neutron Activation Analysis (INAA). Basically, absolute INAA is dependent upon the absolute measurement of the disintegration rates of the nuclides produced by neutron capture. From such disintegration rate data, the amount of the target element present in the irradiated sample is calculated by dividing the observed disintegration rate for each nuclide by the expected value for the disintegration rate per microgram of the target element that produced the nuclide. In absolute INAA, the expected value for disintegration rate per microgram is calculated from nuclear parameters and from measured values of both thermal and epithermal neutron fluxes which were present during irradiation. Absolute INAA does not depend on the concurrent irradiation of elemental standards but does depend on the values for thermal and epithermal neutron capture cross-sections for the target nuclides. A description of the analytical method is presented

Pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism and risk of occult cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tarp Hansen, Anette; Veres, Katalin; Horváth-Puhó, Erzsébet

2017-01-01

The cancer risk during the first year after a pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism episode is higher than expected.An aggressive search for cancer in women with pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism is probably not warranted, due to low absolute risk.......The cancer risk during the first year after a pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism episode is higher than expected.An aggressive search for cancer in women with pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism is probably not warranted, due to low absolute risk....

Pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism and risk of occult cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Anette Tarp; Veres, Katalin; Horváth-Puhó, Erzsébet

2017-01-01

The cancer risk during the first year after a pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism episode is higher than expected. An aggressive search for cancer in women with pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism is probably not warranted, due to low absolute risk.......The cancer risk during the first year after a pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism episode is higher than expected. An aggressive search for cancer in women with pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism is probably not warranted, due to low absolute risk....

Absolute Navigation Information Estimation for Micro Planetary Rovers

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Muhammad Ilyas

2016-03-01

Full Text Available This paper provides algorithms to estimate absolute navigation information, e.g., absolute attitude and position, by using low power, weight and volume Microelectromechanical Systems-type (MEMS sensors that are suitable for micro planetary rovers. Planetary rovers appear to be easily navigable robots due to their extreme slow speed and rotation but, unfortunately, the sensor suites available for terrestrial robots are not always available for planetary rover navigation. This makes them difficult to navigate in a completely unexplored, harsh and complex environment. Whereas the relative attitude and position can be tracked in a similar way as for ground robots, absolute navigation information, unlike in terrestrial applications, is difficult to obtain for a remote celestial body, such as Mars or the Moon. In this paper, an algorithm called the EASI algorithm (Estimation of Attitude using Sun sensor and Inclinometer is presented to estimate the absolute attitude using a MEMS-type sun sensor and inclinometer, only. Moreover, the output of the EASI algorithm is fused with MEMS gyros to produce more accurate and reliable attitude estimates. An absolute position estimation algorithm has also been presented based on these on-board sensors. Experimental results demonstrate the viability of the proposed algorithms and the sensor suite for low-cost and low-weight micro planetary rovers.

Development of cancer risk estimates from epidemiologic studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Webster, E.W.

1983-01-01

Radiation risk estimates may be made for an increase in mortality from, or for an increase in incidence of, particular types of disease. For both endpoints, two numerical systems of risk expression are used: the absolute risk system (usually the excess deaths or cases per million persons per year per rad), and the relative risk system (usually excess deaths or cases per year per rad expressed as a percentage of those normally expected). Risks may be calculated for specific age groups or for a general population. An alternative in both risk systems is the estimation of cumulative of lifetime risk rather than annual risk (e.g. in excess deaths per million per rad over a specified long period including the remainder of lifespan). The derivation of both absolute and relative risks is illustrated by examples. The effects on risk estimates of latent period, follow-up time, age at exposure and age standardization within dose groups are illustrated. The dependence of the projected cumulative (lifetime) risk on the adoption of a constant absolute risk or constant relative risk is noted. The use of life-table data in the adjustment of cumulative risk for normal mortality following single or annual doses is briefly discussed

Education for disaster risk reduction : linking theory with practice in Ghana´s basic schools

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Apronti, Priscilla; Saito, Osamu; Otsuki, K.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/306279258; Kranjac-Berisavljevic, Gordana

2015-01-01

Current understanding of disaster risk reduction (DRR) concurs that, when provided the right education, children have the potential to reduce their own vulnerability and the vulnerability of others in their community. What, then, comprises the right education for DRR? Research has established the

Effects of a Community-Based HIV Risk Reduction Intervention Among HIV-Positive Individuals: Results of a Quasi-Experimental Study in Nepal.

Science.gov (United States)

Poudel, Krishna C; Buchanan, David R; Poudel-Tandukar, Kalpana

2015-06-01

We evaluated the efficacy of a sexual risk reduction intervention utilizing protection motivation and social cognitive theories to address knowledge, threat and coping appraisals, and condom use intentions among HIV-positive individuals in Nepal. Using a quasi-experimental research design, we assigned 277 participants to intervention (n=146) and control (n=131) groups. The intervention group received six sessions on sexual risk reduction strategies and the control group six sessions on medication adherence, smoking, and mental health. Data were collected at baseline and immediately after the intervention. Results indicate that the sexual risk reduction intervention produced a significant increase in HIV transmission knowledge, perceived threat and coping appraisals, and intentions to use condoms with regular, HIV-positive, and HIV-negative partners. The positive effects of the intervention remained significant after adjusting for baseline scores and other potential confounders. In conclusion, our theory-based sexual risk reduction intervention was effective in improving HIV transmission knowledge, perceived threat and coping appraisals, and condom use intentions. Further studies are needed to evaluate the long-term efficacy of the intervention in increasing protection motivation and maintaining preventive behaviors.

The Role of Family in a Dietary Risk Reduction Intervention for Cardiovascular Disease

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Tracy L. Schumacher

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Diet is an essential strategy for the prevention of primary and secondary cardiovascular disease (CVD events. The objectives were to examine: how families at increased risk of CVD perceived personal risk, their motivations to make dietary changes, their understanding of diet, and the influence of other family members. Individuals (>18 years who completed an Australian family-based CVD risk reduction program were invited to a semi-structured telephone interview. Responses were recorded, transcribed verbatim and analysed using a systematic deductive approach with coding derived from key concepts developed as part of the interview structure. Seventeen participants from eight families were interviewed (aged 18–70 years, 47% male, five with CVD diagnosis. Key themes indicated both intrinsic and extrinsic motivations to improve heart health, variations in risk perception, recognition of the role diet plays in heart health, and the extent of family influences on eating patterns. Discrepancies between perceived and actual CVD risk perception impacted on perceived “need” to modify current dietary patterns towards heart health recommendations. Therefore, strategies not reliant on risk perception are needed to engage those with low risk perception. This could involve identifying and accessing the family “ringleader” to influence involvement and capitalising on personal accountability to other family members.

The Role of Family in a Dietary Risk Reduction Intervention for Cardiovascular Disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Schumacher, Tracy L; Burrows, Tracy L; Thompson, Deborah I; Callister, Robin; Spratt, Neil J; Collins, Clare E

2016-09-30

Diet is an essential strategy for the prevention of primary and secondary cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. The objectives were to examine: how families at increased risk of CVD perceived personal risk, their motivations to make dietary changes, their understanding of diet, and the influence of other family members. Individuals (>18 years) who completed an Australian family-based CVD risk reduction program were invited to a semi-structured telephone interview. Responses were recorded, transcribed verbatim and analysed using a systematic deductive approach with coding derived from key concepts developed as part of the interview structure. Seventeen participants from eight families were interviewed (aged 18-70 years, 47% male, five with CVD diagnosis). Key themes indicated both intrinsic and extrinsic motivations to improve heart health, variations in risk perception, recognition of the role diet plays in heart health, and the extent of family influences on eating patterns. Discrepancies between perceived and actual CVD risk perception impacted on perceived "need" to modify current dietary patterns towards heart health recommendations. Therefore, strategies not reliant on risk perception are needed to engage those with low risk perception. This could involve identifying and accessing the family "ringleader" to influence involvement and capitalising on personal accountability to other family members.

Breast Reduction Surgery

Science.gov (United States)

... considering breast reduction surgery, consult a board-certified plastic surgeon. It's important to understand what breast reduction surgery entails — including possible risks and complications — as ...

Alcoholism Risk Reduction in France: A Modernised Approach Related to Alcohol Misuse Disorders

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Georges Brousse

2014-11-01

Full Text Available During many years in France, risk reduction strategies for substance abuse concerned prevention strategies in the general population or interventions near users of illicit substances. In this spirit, the reduction of consumption only concerned opiate addicts. With regard to alcohol, the prevention messages relative to controlled consumption were difficult to transmit because of the importance of this product in the culture of the country. In addition, methods of treatment of alcoholism rested on the dogma of abstinence. Several factors have recently led to an evolution in the treatment of alcohol use disorders integrating the reduction of consumption in strategies. Strategies for reducing consumption should aim for consumption below recommended thresholds (two drinks per day for women, three for the men or, at least, in that direction. It must also be supported by pharmacotherapy and psychotherapy, which offer possibilities. Failure to manage reduction will allow the goals to be revisited and to reconsider abstinence. Finally this evolution or revolution is a new paradigm carried in particular by a pragmatic approach of the disease and new treatments. The aims of this article are to give elements of comprehension relating to the evolution of the practices in France in prevention and treatment of alcohol use disorders and in particular with regard to the reduction of consumption.

Farmers’ Willingness to Pay for Health Risk Reductions of Pesticide Use in China: A Contingent Valuation Study

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Wenyu; Jin, Jianjun; He, Rui; Gong, Haozhou; Tian, Yuhong

2018-01-01

This study aimed to estimate farmers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for health risk reductions of pesticide use by applying the contingent valuation method (CVM) and to explore the factors that influence farmers’ WTP in China. In total, 244 farmers were randomly selected and interviewed. The mean WTP was estimated to be $65.38 (0.94% of total household income) per household per year for a 5/10,000 reduction in morbidity risk. This study shows that farmers’ socioeconomic and attitudinal factors that significantly affect their WTP include farmers’ farming income, education, household size and risk perceptions. In particular, the results demonstrate that respondents’ social trust, social reciprocity and social networks have significant impacts on their WTP. The findings of this study can provide useful insights for policy makers to design effective policies to address health problems related to pesticide use in the developing world. PMID:29596345

Farmers’ Willingness to Pay for Health Risk Reductions of Pesticide Use in China: A Contingent Valuation Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wenyu Wang

2018-03-01

Full Text Available This study aimed to estimate farmers’ willingness to pay (WTP for health risk reductions of pesticide use by applying the contingent valuation method (CVM and to explore the factors that influence farmers’ WTP in China. In total, 244 farmers were randomly selected and interviewed. The mean WTP was estimated to be $65.38 (0.94% of total household income per household per year for a 5/10,000 reduction in morbidity risk. This study shows that farmers’ socioeconomic and attitudinal factors that significantly affect their WTP include farmers’ farming income, education, household size and risk perceptions. In particular, the results demonstrate that respondents’ social trust, social reciprocity and social networks have significant impacts on their WTP. The findings of this study can provide useful insights for policy makers to design effective policies to address health problems related to pesticide use in the developing world.

Reductive stress in young healthy individuals at risk of Alzheimer disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Badía, Mari-Carmen; Giraldo, Esther; Dasí, Francisco; Alonso, Dolores; Lainez, Jose M; Lloret, Ana; Viña, Jose

2013-10-01

Oxidative stress is a hallmark of Alzheimer disease (AD) but this has not been studied in young healthy persons at risk of the disease. Carrying an Apo ε4 allele is the major genetic risk factor for AD. We have observed that lymphocytes from young, healthy persons carrying at least one Apo ε4 allele suffer from reductive rather than oxidative stress, i.e., lower oxidized glutathione and P-p38 levels and higher expression of enzymes involved in antioxidant defense, such as glutamylcysteinyl ligase and glutathione peroxidase. In contrast, in the full-blown disease, the situation is reversed and oxidative stress occurs, probably because of the exhaustion of the antioxidant mechanisms just mentioned. These results provide insights into the early events of the progression of the disease that may allow us to find biomarkers of AD at its very early stages. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Absolute-magnitude distributions of supernovae

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Richardson, Dean; Wright, John [Department of Physics, Xavier University of Louisiana, New Orleans, LA 70125 (United States); Jenkins III, Robert L. [Applied Physics Department, Richard Stockton College, Galloway, NJ 08205 (United States); Maddox, Larry, E-mail: drichar7@xula.edu [Department of Chemistry and Physics, Southeastern Louisiana University, Hammond, LA 70402 (United States)

2014-05-01

The absolute-magnitude distributions of seven supernova (SN) types are presented. The data used here were primarily taken from the Asiago Supernova Catalogue, but were supplemented with additional data. We accounted for both foreground and host-galaxy extinction. A bootstrap method is used to correct the samples for Malmquist bias. Separately, we generate volume-limited samples, restricted to events within 100 Mpc. We find that the superluminous events (M{sub B} < –21) make up only about 0.1% of all SNe in the bias-corrected sample. The subluminous events (M{sub B} > –15) make up about 3%. The normal Ia distribution was the brightest with a mean absolute blue magnitude of –19.25. The IIP distribution was the dimmest at –16.75.

Calibration with Absolute Shrinkage

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Øjelund, Henrik; Madsen, Henrik; Thyregod, Poul

2001-01-01

In this paper, penalized regression using the L-1 norm on the estimated parameters is proposed for chemometric je calibration. The algorithm is of the lasso type, introduced by Tibshirani in 1996 as a linear regression method with bound on the absolute length of the parameters, but a modification...

Comparison of Optimal Portfolios Selected by Multicriterial Model Using Absolute and Relative Criteria Values

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Branka Marasović

2009-03-01

Full Text Available In this paper we select an optimal portfolio on the Croatian capital market by using the multicriterial programming. In accordance with the modern portfolio theory maximisation of returns at minimal risk should be the investment goal of any successful investor. However, contrary to the expectations of the modern portfolio theory, the tests carried out on a number of financial markets reveal the existence of other indicators important in portfolio selection. Considering the importance of variables other than return and risk, selection of the optimal portfolio becomes a multicriterial problem which should be solved by using the appropriate techniques.In order to select an optimal portfolio, absolute values of criteria, like return, risk, price to earning value ratio (P/E, price to book value ratio (P/B and price to sale value ratio (P/S are included in our multicriterial model. However the problem might occur as the mean values of some criteria are significantly different for different sectors and because financial managers emphasize that comparison of the same criteria for different sectors could lead us to wrong conclusions. In the second part of the paper, relative values of previously stated criteria (in relation to mean value of sector are included in model for selecting optimal portfolio. Furthermore, the paper shows that if relative values of criteria are included in multicriterial model for selecting optimal portfolio, return in subsequent period is considerably higher than if absolute values of the same criteria were used.

Blood pressure-lowering treatment based on cardiovascular risk: a meta-analysis of individual patient data.

Science.gov (United States)

2014-08-16

We aimed to investigate whether the benefits of blood pressure-lowering drugs are proportional to baseline cardiovascular risk, to establish whether absolute risk could be used to inform treatment decisions for blood pressure-lowering therapy, as is recommended for lipid-lowering therapy. This meta-analysis included individual participant data from trials that randomly assigned patients to either blood pressure-lowering drugs or placebo, or to more intensive or less intensive blood pressure-lowering regimens. The primary outcome was total major cardiovascular events, consisting of stroke, heart attack, heart failure, or cardiovascular death. Participants were separated into four categories of baseline 5-year major cardiovascular risk using a risk prediction equation developed from the placebo groups of the included trials (21%). 11 trials and 26 randomised groups met the inclusion criteria, and included 67,475 individuals, of whom 51,917 had available data for the calculation of the risk equations. 4167 (8%) had a cardiovascular event during a median of 4·0 years (IQR 3·4-4·4) of follow-up. The mean estimated baseline levels of 5-year cardiovascular risk for each of the four risk groups were 6·0% (SD 2·0), 12·1% (1·5), 17·7% (1·7), and 26·8% (5·4). In each consecutive higher risk group, blood pressure-lowering treatment reduced the risk of cardiovascular events relatively by 18% (95% CI 7-27), 15% (4-25), 13% (2-22), and 15% (5-24), respectively (p=0·30 for trend). However, in absolute terms, treating 1000 patients in each group with blood pressure-lowering treatment for 5 years would prevent 14 (95% CI 8-21), 20 (8-31), 24 (8-40), and 38 (16-61) cardiovascular events, respectively (p=0·04 for trend). Lowering blood pressure provides similar relative protection at all levels of baseline cardiovascular risk, but progressively greater absolute risk reductions as baseline risk increases. These results support the use of predicted baseline cardiovascular

Comparison of cost effectiveness of risk reduction among different energy systems: French case studies. Final report of the co-ordinated research programme

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lochard, Jacques

1989-08-01

This report presents the three French case studies performed in the framework of the coordinated research program on 'Comparison of Cost-effectiveness of Risk Reduction among different Energy Systems': Cost effectiveness of robotics and remote tooling for occupational risk reduction at a nuclear fuel fabrication facility; Cost-effectiveness of protection actions to reduce occupational exposures in underground uranium mines; Cost-effectiveness of safety measures to reduce public risk associated with the transportation of UF 6 by truck and trains

Wildfire risk reduction in the United States: Leadership staff perceptions of local fire department roles and responsibilities

Science.gov (United States)

Rachel S. Madsen; Hylton J. G. Haynes; Sarah M. McCaffrey

2018-01-01

As wildland fires have had increasing negative impacts on a range of human values, in many parts of the United States (U.S.) and around the world, collaborative risk reduction efforts among agencies, homeowners, and fire departments are needed to improve wildfire safety and mitigate risk. Using interview data from 46 senior officers from local fire departments around...

Medication Adherence Improvements in Employees Participating in a Pharmacist-Run Risk Reduction Program

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Mallory C. McKenzie

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Objective: To evaluate the medication adherence of individuals participating in a pharmacist-run employee health Cardiovascular and Diabetes Risk Reduction Program. Design: Retrospective analysis of medication adherence using pharmacy refill data. Setting: A medium sized university located in the Midwest United States and the organization's outpatient pharmacy. Participants: 38 participants ≥ 18 years of age, employed and receiving their health insurance through the organization, and have a diagnosis of hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes mellitus, or a combination thereof. Intervention: Participation in the risk reduction program that emphasizes medication therapy management (MTM, lifestyle medicine and care coordination. Main Outcome Measures: The Proportion of Days Covered (PDC and the Medication Possession Ratio (MPR. Results: PDC and MPR analysis showed a statistically significant improvement in medication adherence for 180 days and 360 days post enrollment versus the 180 days prior to enrollment (P<0.01. The PDC analysis demonstrated a statistically significant improvement in the number of medications that achieved a PDC ≥ 80% (high adherence for the 180 days post enrollment versus the 180 days prior to enrollment (+30%, P<0.01. The MPR analysis showed a non-statistically significant improvement in the number of medications that achieved an MPR ≥ 80% (high adherence pre enrollment versus post enrollment (+10%, P=0.086. The percentage of participants in the program that reached a PDC and MPR adherence rate ≥ 80% at 180 days post enrollment was 78.9% and 94.4%, respectively which exceeds that of a matched cohort that reached a PDC and MPR adherence rate ≥ 80% of 66.4% and 82.8%, respectively. Conclusion: Pharmacists can improve medication adherence as measured by PDC and MPR when working with employees enrolled in a novel pharmacist-run employee health risk reduction program. Medication adherence was shown to be sustainable for

Data poverty: A global evaluation for 2009 to 2013 - implications for sustainable development and disaster risk reduction

Science.gov (United States)

Leidig, Mathias; Teeuw, Richard M.; Gibson, Andrew D.

2016-08-01

The article presents a time series (2009-2013) analysis for a new version of the ;Digital Divide; concept that developed in the 1990s. Digital information technologies, such as the Internet, mobile phones and social media, provide vast amounts of data for decision-making and resource management. The Data Poverty Index (DPI) provides an open-source means of annually evaluating global access to data and information. The DPI can be used to monitor aspects of data and information availability at global and national levels, with potential application at local (district) levels. Access to data and information is a major factor in disaster risk reduction, increased resilience to disaster and improved adaptation to climate change. In that context, the DPI could be a useful tool for monitoring the Sustainable Development Goals of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015-2030). The effects of severe data poverty, particularly limited access to geoinformatic data, free software and online training materials, are discussed in the context of sustainable development and disaster risk reduction. Unlike many other indices, the DPI is underpinned by datasets that are consistently provided annually for almost all the countries of the world and can be downloaded without restriction or cost.

Efficacy of intrahepatic absolute alcohol in unrespectable hepatocellular carcinoma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farooqi, J.I.; Hameed, K.; Khan, I.U.; Shah, S.

2001-01-01

To determine efficacy of intrahepatic absolute alcohol injection in researchable hepatocellular carcinoma. A randomized, controlled, experimental and interventional clinical trial. Gastroenterology Department, PGMI, Hayatabad Medical Complex, Peshawar during the period from June, 1998 to June, 2000. Thirty patients were treated by percutaneous, intrahepatic absolute alcohol injection sin repeated sessions, 33 patients were not given or treated with alcohol to serve as control. Both the groups were comparable for age, sex and other baseline characteristics. Absolute alcohol therapy significantly improved quality of life of patients, reduced the tumor size and mortality as well as showed significantly better results regarding survival (P< 0.05) than the patients of control group. We conclude that absolute alcohol is a beneficial and safe palliative treatment measure in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). (author)

Women Living with HIV in Rural Areas. Implementing a Response using the HIV and AIDS Risk Assessment and Reduction Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sarah Bandali

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The global fight against HIV is progressing; however, women living in rural areas particularly in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA continue to face the devastating consequences of HIV and AIDS. Lack of knowledge and geographical barriers to HIV services are compounded by gender norms often limiting the negotiation of safe sexual practices among women living in rural areas. This paper discusses findings from a qualitative study conducted in rural areas of Mozambique examining factors that influenced women to engage in HIV risk-reduction practices. The findings from this study led to the emergence of an HIV and AIDS risk assessment and reduction (HARAR model, which is described in detail. The model helps in understanding gender-related factors influencing men and women to engage in risk-reduction practices, which can be used as a framework in other settings to design more nuanced and contextual policies and programs.

Risk reduction in a changing insurance climate: examples from the US and UK

Science.gov (United States)

Horn, Diane; McShane, Michael

2015-04-01

Coastal cities face a range of increasingly severe challenges as sea level rises, and adaptation to future flood risk will require more than structural defences. Many cities will not be able to rely solely on engineering structures for protection and will need to develop a suite of policy responses to increase their resilience to impacts of rising sea level. Insurance can be used as a risk-sharing mechanism to encourage adaptation to sea level rise, using pricing or restrictions on availability of cover to discourage new development in flood risk areas or to encourage the uptake of flood resilience measures. We draw on flood insurance policy lessons learned from the United States and the United Kingdom to propose risk-sharing among private insurers/reinsurers, government, and policyholders to alleviate major issues of the current programs, while still maintaining a holistic approach to managing flood risk. The UK and the US are almost polar opposites in the way flood insurance is implemented. Flood insurance in the US is fully public and in the UK fully private; however, in both countries the participants feel that the established system is unsustainable. In the US, flood coverage is excluded from property policies provided by private insurers, and is only available through the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), with the federal government acting as insurer of last resort. Flood risk reduction has been part of the NFIP remit since the introduction of the program in 1968. Following massive payments for flood claims related primarily to Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy, the NFIP is approximately 26 billion in debt, prompting calls to bring private insurance back into the flood insurance business. Two major Congressional modifications to the NFIP in 2012 and 2014 have pushed the contradictory goals of fully risk-based, yet affordable premiums. The private market has not been significantly involved in a risk-bearing role, but that is changing as private insurers

Communicating Treatment Risk Reduction to People With Low Numeracy Skills: A Cross-Cultural Comparison

Science.gov (United States)

2009-01-01

Objectives. We sought to address denominator neglect (i.e. the focus on the number of treated and nontreated patients who died, without sufficiently considering the overall numbers of patients) in estimates of treatment risk reduction, and analyzed whether icon arrays aid comprehension. Methods. We performed a survey of probabilistic, national samples in the United States and Germany in July and August of 2008. Participants received scenarios involving equally effective treatments but differing in the overall number of treated and nontreated patients. In some conditions, the number who received a treatment equaled the number who did not; in others the number was smaller or larger. Some participants received icon arrays. Results. Participants—particularly those with low numeracy skills—showed denominator neglect in treatment risk reduction perceptions. Icon arrays were an effective method for eliminating denominator neglect. We found cross-cultural differences that are important in light of the countries' different medical systems. Conclusions. Problems understanding numerical information often reside not in the mind but in the problem's representation. These findings suggest suitable ways to communicate quantitative medical data. PMID:19833983

We4DRR: A brand new European network for women in Disaster Risk Reduction

Science.gov (United States)

Papathoma-Koehle, Maria; Keiler, Margreth; Promper, Catrin; Patek, Maria

2017-04-01

Natural hazards often intensify societal inequalities having disproportionate impact on some population groups including women. On the other hand, women working in the field of natural hazards, either on site as emergency workers or in research, policy and administration as scientists, experts and managers have to deal with a number of challenges. However, gender issues are often neglected and women networks related to natural hazards in Europe but also worldwide are scarce. We present here "We4DRR: Women exchange for Disaster Risk Reduction", a new women's network focusing on gender issues in the field of disaster risk reduction but also on women working in the field. The network was initiated and organised by the Austrian Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management (BMLFUW) and the University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna (BOKU) and was launched in Austria in March 2016. Its aims include collecting data on gender issues and DRR, empowerment of women, mentoring of young female professionals, and increasing the visibility of gender-specific aspects in DRR.

Planck absolute entropy of a rotating BTZ black hole

Science.gov (United States)

Riaz, S. M. Jawwad

2018-04-01

In this paper, the Planck absolute entropy and the Bekenstein-Smarr formula of the rotating Banados-Teitelboim-Zanelli (BTZ) black hole are presented via a complex thermodynamical system contributed by its inner and outer horizons. The redefined entropy approaches zero as the temperature of the rotating BTZ black hole tends to absolute zero, satisfying the Nernst formulation of a black hole. Hence, it can be regarded as the Planck absolute entropy of the rotating BTZ black hole.

Absolute nuclear material assay using count distribution (LAMBDA) space

Science.gov (United States)

Prasad, Manoj K [Pleasanton, CA; Snyderman, Neal J [Berkeley, CA; Rowland, Mark S [Alamo, CA

2012-06-05

A method of absolute nuclear material assay of an unknown source comprising counting neutrons from the unknown source and providing an absolute nuclear material assay utilizing a model to optimally compare to the measured count distributions. In one embodiment, the step of providing an absolute nuclear material assay comprises utilizing a random sampling of analytically computed fission chain distributions to generate a continuous time-evolving sequence of event-counts by spreading the fission chain distribution in time.

Hand hygiene regimens for the reduction of risk in food service environments.

Science.gov (United States)

Edmonds, Sarah L; McCormack, Robert R; Zhou, Sifang Steve; Macinga, David R; Fricker, Christopher M

2012-07-01

Pathogenic strains of Escherichia coli and human norovirus are the main etiologic agents of foodborne illness resulting from inadequate hand hygiene practices by food service workers. This study was conducted to evaluate the antibacterial and antiviral efficacy of various hand hygiene product regimens under different soil conditions representative of those in food service settings and assess the impact of product formulation on this efficacy. On hands contaminated with chicken broth containing E. coli, representing a moderate soil load, a regimen combining an antimicrobial hand washing product with a 70% ethanol advanced formula (EtOH AF) gel achieved a 5.22-log reduction, whereas a nonantimicrobial hand washing product alone achieved a 3.10log reduction. When hands were heavily soiled from handling ground beef containing E. coli, a wash-sanitize regimen with a 0.5% chloroxylenol antimicrobial hand washing product and the 70% EtOH AF gel achieved a 4.60-log reduction, whereas a wash-sanitize regimen with a 62% EtOH foam achieved a 4.11-log reduction. Sanitizing with the 70% EtOH AF gel alone was more effective than hand washing with a nonantimicrobial product for reducing murine norovirus (MNV), a surrogate for human norovirus, with 2.60- and 1.79-log reductions, respectively. When combined with hand washing, the 70% EtOH AF gel produced a 3.19-log reduction against MNV. A regimen using the SaniTwice protocol with the 70% EtOH AF gel produced a 4.04-log reduction against MNV. These data suggest that although the process of hand washing helped to remove pathogens from the hands, use of a wash-sanitize regimen was even more effective for reducing organisms. Use of a high-efficacy sanitizer as part of a wash-sanitize regimen further increased the efficacy of the regimen. The use of a well-formulated alcohol-based hand rub as part of a wash-sanitize regimen should be considered as a means to reduce risk of infection transmission in food service facilities.

Left-sided breast cancer and risks of secondary lung cancer and ischemic heart disease. Effects of modern radiotherapy techniques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Corradini, Stefanie; Ballhausen, Hendrik; Weingandt, Helmut; Freislederer, Philipp; Schoenecker, Stephan; Niyazi, Maximilian; Belka, Claus [University Hospital, LMU Munich, Department of Radiation Oncology, Munich (Germany); Simonetto, Cristoforo; Eidemueller, Markus [Helmholtz Zentrum Muenchen, Institute of Radiation Protection, Neuherberg (Germany); Ganswindt, Ute [University Hospital, LMU Munich, Department of Radiation Oncology, Munich (Germany); Medical University, Department of Radiation Oncology, Innsbruck (Austria)

2018-03-15

Modern breast cancer radiotherapy techniques, such as respiratory-gated radiotherapy in deep-inspiration breath-hold (DIBH) or volumetric-modulated arc radiotherapy (VMAT) have been shown to reduce the high dose exposure of the heart in left-sided breast cancer. The aim of the present study was to comparatively estimate the excess relative and absolute risks of radiation-induced secondary lung cancer and ischemic heart disease for different modern radiotherapy techniques. Four different treatment plans were generated for ten computed tomography data sets of patients with left-sided breast cancer, using either three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3D-CRT) or VMAT, in free-breathing (FB) or DIBH. Dose-volume histograms were used for organ equivalent dose (OED) calculations using linear, linear-exponential, and plateau models for the lung. A linear model was applied to estimate the long-term risk of ischemic heart disease as motivated by epidemiologic data. Excess relative risk (ERR) and 10-year excess absolute risk (EAR) for radiation-induced secondary lung cancer and ischemic heart disease were estimated for different representative baseline risks. The DIBH maneuver resulted in a significant reduction of the ERR and estimated 10-year excess absolute risk for major coronary events compared to FB in 3D-CRT plans (p = 0.04). In VMAT plans, the mean predicted risk reduction through DIBH was less pronounced and not statistically significant (p = 0.44). The risk of radiation-induced secondary lung cancer was mainly influenced by the radiotherapy technique, with no beneficial effect through DIBH. VMAT plans correlated with an increase in 10-year EAR for radiation-induced lung cancer as compared to 3D-CRT plans (DIBH p = 0.007; FB p = 0.005, respectively). However, the EARs were affected more strongly by nonradiation-associated risk factors, such as smoking, as compared to the choice of treatment technique. The results indicate that 3D-CRT plans in DIBH pose the lowest

Reducing shame in a game that predicts HIV risk reduction for young adult MSM: a randomized trial delivered nationally over the Web.

Science.gov (United States)

Christensen, John L; Miller, Lynn Carol; Appleby, Paul Robert; Corsbie-Massay, Charisse; Godoy, Carlos Gustavo; Marsella, Stacy C; Read, Stephen J

2013-11-13

Men who have sex with men (MSM) often face socially sanctioned disapproval of sexual deviance from the heterosexual "normal." Such sexual stigma can be internalized producing a painful affective state (i.e., shame). Although shame (e.g., addiction) can predict risk-taking (e.g., alcohol abuse), sexual shame's link to sexual risk-taking is unclear. Socially Optimized Learning in Virtual Environments (SOLVE) was designed to reduce MSM's sexual shame, but whether it does so, and if that reduction predicts HIV risk reduction, is unclear. To test if at baseline, MSM's reported past unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) is related to shame; MSM's exposure to SOLVE compared to a wait-list control (WLC) condition reduces MSM's shame; and shame-reduction mediates the link between WLC condition and UAI risk reduction. HIV-negative, self-identified African American, Latino or White MSM, aged 18-24 years, who had had UAI with a non-primary/casual partner in the past three months were recruited for a national online study. Eligible MSM were computer randomized to either WLC or a web-delivered SOLVE. Retained MSM completed baseline measures (e.g., UAI in the past three months; current level of shame) and, in the SOLVE group, viewed at least one level of the game. At the end of the first session, shame was measured again. MSM completed follow-up UAI measures three months later. All data from 921 retained MSM (WLC condition, 484; SOLVE condition, 437) were analyzed, with missing data multiply imputed. At baseline, MSM reporting more risky sexual behaviour reported more shame (r s=0.21; peffect was significant (point estimate -0.10, 95% bias-corrected CI [-0.01 to -0.23] such that participants in the SOLVE treatment condition reported greater reductions in shame, which in turn predicted reductions in risky sexual behaviour at follow-up. The direct effect, however, was not significant. SOLVE is the first intervention to: (1) significantly reduce shame for MSM; and (2) demonstrate that

Program for Volcanic Risk Reduction in the Americas: Translation of Science into Policy and Practice

Science.gov (United States)

Mangan, Margaret; Pierson, Thomas; Wilkinson, Stuart; Westby, Elizabeth; Driedger, Carolyn; Ewert, John

2016-04-01

In 2013, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the U.S. Agency for International Development/Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA) inaugurated Volcanic Risk Reduction in the Americas, a program that brings together binational delegations of scientists, civil authorities, and emergency response managers to discuss the challenges of integrating volcano science into crisis response and risk reduction practices. During reciprocal visits, delegations tour areas impacted by volcanic unrest and/or eruption, meet with affected communities, and exchange insights and best practices. The 2013 exchange focused on hazards at Mount Rainier (Washington, USA) and Nevado del Ruiz (Caldas/Tolima, Colombia). Both of these volcanoes are highly susceptible to large volcanic mudflows (lahars). The Colombia-USA exchange allowed participants to share insights on lahar warning systems, self-evacuation planning, and effective education programs for at-risk communities. [See Driedger and Ewert (2015) Abstract 76171 presented at 2015 Fall AGU, San Francisco, Calif., Dec 14-18]. The second exchange, in 2015, took place between the USA and Chile, focusing on the Long Valley volcanic region (California, USA) and Chaitén volcano (Lagos, Chile) - both are centers of rhyolite volcanism. The high viscosity of rhyolite magma can cause explosive eruptions with widespread destruction. The rare but catastrophic "super eruptions" of the world have largely been the result of rhyolite volcanism. Chaitén produced the world's first explosive rhyolite eruption in the age of modern volcano monitoring in 2008-2009. Rhyolite eruptions of similar scale and style have occurred frequently in the Long Valley volcanic region, most recently about 600 years ago. The explosivity and relative rarity of rhyolite eruptions create unique challenges to risk reduction efforts. The recent Chaitén eruption was unexpected - little was known of Chaitén's eruptive history, and because of this, monitoring

Risk-based enteric pathogen reduction targets for non-potable and direct potable use of roof runoff, stormwater, and greywater

Science.gov (United States)

This paper presents risk-based enteric pathogen log reduction targets for non-potable and potable uses of a variety of alternative source waters (i.e., locally-collected greywater, roof runoff, and stormwater). A probabilistic Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) was use...

Comparison of cost effectiveness of risk reduction among different energy systems: French case studies. Final report of the co-ordinated research programme

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lochard, Jacques [ed.

1989-08-01

This report presents the three French case studies performed in the framework of the coordinated research program on 'Comparison of Cost-effectiveness of Risk Reduction among different Energy Systems': Cost effectiveness of robotics and remote tooling for occupational risk reduction at a nuclear fuel fabrication facility; Cost-effectiveness of protection actions to reduce occupational exposures in underground uranium mines; Cost-effectiveness of safety measures to reduce public risk associated with the transportation of UF{sub 6} by truck and trains.

Ready for the Storm: Education for Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

Kagawa, Fumiyo; Selby, David

2012-01-01

Incidences of disaster and climate change impacts are rising globally. Disaster risk reduction and climate change education are two educational responses to present and anticipated increases in the severity and frequency of hazards. They share significant complementarities and potential synergies, the latter as yet largely unexploited. Three…

Absolutism versus doceañista liberalism. The Visual Counterattack

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carlos Reyero

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The aim of this article is to identify some dominants themes within absolutists discourses and to sketch out how they are translated to images, in order to persuade against and to denigrate liberalism. Descriptions of public ornaments in events honoring king Ferdinand VII in 1814 and 1823 are used as the main reference sources. Absolutism is recognized looking for associations between images and words, resemblances, metaphors, symbols and iconographic matches. Visual imagery to achieve absolutist goal emphasized the primacy of the king, the rhetoric of vassalage, a strong motherland, the uniqueness of religion, and the exclusion of the political enemy. In order to totally eliminate the constitutional risk, the tradition was presented as a paradise of peace and happiness.

Development of a module for Cost-Benefit analysis of risk reduction measures for natural hazards for the CHANGES-SDSS platform

Science.gov (United States)

Berlin, Julian; Bogaard, Thom; Van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim; Mostert, Eric; Dopheide, Emile

2014-05-01

Cost benefit analysis (CBA) is a well know method used widely for the assessment of investments either in the private and public sector. In the context of risk mitigation and the evaluation of risk reduction alternatives for natural hazards its use is very important to evaluate the effectiveness of such efforts in terms of avoided monetary losses. However the current method has some disadvantages related to the spatial distribution of the costs and benefits, the geographical distribution of the avoided damage and losses, the variation in areas that are benefited in terms of invested money and avoided monetary risk. Decision-makers are often interested in how the costs and benefits are distributed among different administrative units of a large area or region, so they will be able to compare and analyse the cost and benefits per administrative unit as a result of the implementation of the risk reduction projects. In this work we first examined the Cost benefit procedure for natural hazards, how the costs are assessed for several structural and non-structural risk reduction alternatives, we also examined the current problems of the method such as the inclusion of cultural and social considerations that are complex to monetize , the problem of discounting future values using a defined interest rate and the spatial distribution of cost and benefits. We also examined the additional benefits and the indirect costs associated with the implementation of the risk reduction alternatives such as the cost of having a ugly landscape (also called negative benefits). In the last part we examined the current tools and software used in natural hazards assessment with support to conduct CBA and we propose design considerations for the implementation of the CBA module for the CHANGES-SDSS Platform an initiative of the ongoing 7th Framework Programme "CHANGES of the European commission. Keywords: Risk management, Economics of risk mitigation, EU Flood Directive, resilience, prevention

Risk reduction by combining nature values with flood protection?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Van Loon-Steensma Jantsje M.

2016-01-01

foreland into the dike design does not automatically mean that nature values and flood protection are well integrated. Flood protection imposes rather different requirements on the extent and features of marshes than nature conservation and development. Wave damping is most effective with a high and stable marsh, while nature thrives with dynamic processes and differences in elevation. Therefore, only a design that allows natural marsh dynamics and includes different marsh zones could combine nature values with flood protection. In practice, this means a dike design with an uncertain foreland, that offers space for natural processes. The uncertainty in foreland development reduces the possible flood risk reduction. In our paper we describe the critical points of interest concerning risk reduction in this system.

Susceptibility of murine norovirus and hepatitis A virus to electron beam irradiation in oysters and quantifying the reduction in potential infection risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Praveen, Chandni; Dancho, Brooke A; Kingsley, David H; Calci, Kevin R; Meade, Gloria K; Mena, Kristina D; Pillai, Suresh D

2013-06-01

Consumption of raw oysters is an exposure route for human norovirus (NoV) and hepatitis A virus (HAV). Therefore, efficient postharvest oyster treatment technology is needed to reduce public health risks. This study evaluated the inactivation of HAV and the NoV research surrogate, murine norovirus-1 (MNV-1), in oysters (Crassostrea virginica) by electron beam (E-beam) irradiation. The reduction of potential infection risks was quantified for E-beam irradiation technology employed on raw oysters at various virus contamination levels. The E-beam dose required to reduce the MNV and HAV titer by 90% (D(10) value) in whole oysters was 4.05 (standard deviations [SD], ±0.63) and 4.83 (SD, ±0.08) kGy, respectively. Microbial risk assessment suggests that if a typical serving of 12 raw oysters was contaminated with 10(5) PFU, a 5-kGy treatment would achieve a 12% reduction (from 4.49 out of 10 persons to 3.95 out of 10 persons) in NoV infection and a 16% reduction (from 9.21 out of 10 persons to 7.76 out of 10 persons) in HAV infections. If the serving size contained only 10(2) PFU of viruses, a 5-kGy treatment would achieve a 26% reduction (2.74 out of 10 persons to 2.03 out of 10 persons) of NoV and 91% reduction (2.1 out of 10 persons to 1.93 out of 100 persons) of HAV infection risks. This study shows that although E-beam processing cannot completely eliminate the risk of viral illness, infection risks can be reduced.

An interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction under conditions of uncertainty: a case study of Tristan da Cunha

Science.gov (United States)

Hicks, A.; Barclay, J.; Simmons, P.; Loughlin, S.

2014-07-01

The uncertainty brought about by intermittent volcanic activity is fairly common at volcanoes worldwide. While better knowledge of any one volcano's behavioural characteristics has the potential to reduce this uncertainty, the subsequent reduction of risk from volcanic threats is only realised if that knowledge is pertinent to stakeholders and effectively communicated to inform good decision making. Success requires integration of methods, skills and expertise across disciplinary boundaries. This research project develops and trials a novel interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction on the remote volcanic island of Tristan da Cunha (South Atlantic). For the first time, volcanological techniques, probabilistic decision support and social scientific methods were integrated in a single study. New data were produced that (1) established no spatio-temporal pattern to recent volcanic activity; (2) quantified the high degree of scientific uncertainty around future eruptive scenarios; (3) analysed the physical vulnerability of the community as a consequence of their geographical isolation and exposure to volcanic hazards; (4) evaluated social and cultural influences on vulnerability and resilience; and (5) evaluated the effectiveness of a scenario planning approach, both as a method for integrating the different strands of the research and as a way of enabling on-island decision makers to take ownership of risk identification and management, and capacity building within their community. The paper provides empirical evidence of the value of an innovative interdisciplinary framework for reducing volcanic risk. It also provides evidence for the strength that comes from integrating social and physical sciences with the development of effective, tailored engagement and communication strategies in volcanic risk reduction.

Tobacco harm reduction: an alternative cessation strategy for inveterate smokers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Godshall William T

2006-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, about 45 million Americans continue to smoke, even after one of the most intense public health campaigns in history, now over 40 years old. Each year some 438,000 smokers die from smoking-related diseases, including lung and other cancers, cardiovascular disorders and pulmonary diseases. Many smokers are unable – or at least unwilling – to achieve cessation through complete nicotine and tobacco abstinence; they continue smoking despite the very real and obvious adverse health consequences. Conventional smoking cessation policies and programs generally present smokers with two unpleasant alternatives: quit, or die. A third approach to smoking cessation, tobacco harm reduction, involves the use of alternative sources of nicotine, including modern smokeless tobacco products. A substantial body of research, much of it produced over the past decade, establishes the scientific and medical foundation for tobacco harm reduction using smokeless tobacco products. This report provides a description of traditional and modern smokeless tobacco products, and of the prevalence of their use in the United States and Sweden. It reviews the epidemiologic evidence for low health risks associated with smokeless use, both in absolute terms and in comparison to the much higher risks of smoking. The report also describes evidence that smokeless tobacco has served as an effective substitute for cigarettes among Swedish men, who consequently have among the lowest smoking-related mortality rates in the developed world. The report documents the fact that extensive misinformation about ST products is widely available from ostensibly reputable sources, including governmental health agencies and major health organizations. The American Council on Science and Health believes that strong support of tobacco harm reduction is fully consistent with its mission to promote sound science in regulation and in

Absolute risk of suicide after first hospital contact in mental disorder

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nordentoft, Merete; Mortensen, Preben Bo; Pedersen, Carsten Bøcker

2011-01-01

Estimates of lifetime risk of suicide in mental disorders were based on selected samples with incomplete follow-up.......Estimates of lifetime risk of suicide in mental disorders were based on selected samples with incomplete follow-up....

Approach to Absolute Zero

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 2; Issue 10. Approach to Absolute Zero Below 10 milli-Kelvin. R Srinivasan. Series Article Volume 2 Issue 10 October 1997 pp 8-16. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link: https://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/reso/002/10/0008-0016 ...

Absolute marine gravimetry with matter-wave interferometry.

Science.gov (United States)

Bidel, Y; Zahzam, N; Blanchard, C; Bonnin, A; Cadoret, M; Bresson, A; Rouxel, D; Lequentrec-Lalancette, M F

2018-02-12

Measuring gravity from an aircraft or a ship is essential in geodesy, geophysics, mineral and hydrocarbon exploration, and navigation. Today, only relative sensors are available for onboard gravimetry. This is a major drawback because of the calibration and drift estimation procedures which lead to important operational constraints. Atom interferometry is a promising technology to obtain onboard absolute gravimeter. But, despite high performances obtained in static condition, no precise measurements were reported in dynamic. Here, we present absolute gravity measurements from a ship with a sensor based on atom interferometry. Despite rough sea conditions, we obtained precision below 10 -5  m s -2 . The atom gravimeter was also compared with a commercial spring gravimeter and showed better performances. This demonstration opens the way to the next generation of inertial sensors (accelerometer, gyroscope) based on atom interferometry which should provide high-precision absolute measurements from a moving platform.

Forging process design for risk reduction

Science.gov (United States)

Mao, Yongning

In this dissertation, forging process design has been investigated with the primary concern on risk reduction. Different forged components have been studied, especially those ones that could cause catastrophic loss if failure occurs. As an effective modeling methodology, finite element analysis is applied extensively in this work. Three examples, titanium compressor disk, superalloy turbine disk, and titanium hip prosthesis, have been discussed to demonstrate this approach. Discrete defects such as hard alpha anomalies are known to cause disastrous failure if they are present in those stress critical components. In this research, hard-alpha inclusion movement during forging of titanium compressor disk is studied by finite element analysis. By combining the results from Finite Element Method (FEM), regression modeling and Monte Carlo simulation, it is shown that changing the forging path is able to mitigate the failure risk of the components during the service. The second example goes with a turbine disk made of superalloy IN 718. The effect of forging on microstructure is the main consideration in this study. Microstructure defines the as-forged disk properties. Considering specific forging conditions, preform has its own effect on the microstructure. Through a sensitivity study it is found that forging temperature and speed have significant influence on the microstructure. In order to choose the processing parameters to optimize the microstructure, the dependence of microstructure on die speed and temperature is thoroughly studied using design of numerical experiments. For various desired goals, optimal solutions are determined. The narrow processing window of titanium alloy makes the isothermal forging a preferred way to produce forged parts without forging defects. However, the cost of isothermal forging (dies at the same temperature as the workpiece) limits its wide application. In this research, it has been demonstrated that with proper process design, the die

Gastric Bypass Surgery Produces a Durable Reduction in Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors and Reduces the Long-Term Risks of Congestive Heart Failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Benotti, Peter N; Wood, G Craig; Carey, David J; Mehra, Vishal C; Mirshahi, Tooraj; Lent, Michelle R; Petrick, Anthony T; Still, Christopher; Gerhard, Glenn S; Hirsch, Annemarie G

2017-05-23

Obesity and its association with reduced life expectancy are well established, with cardiovascular disease as one of the major causes of fatality. Metabolic surgery is a powerful intervention for severe obesity, resulting in improvement in comorbid diseases and in cardiovascular risk factors. This study investigates the relationship between metabolic surgery and long-term cardiovascular events. A cohort of Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery (RYGB) patients was tightly matched by age, body mass index, sex, Framingham Risk Score, smoking history, use of antihypertension medication, diabetes mellitus status, and calendar year with a concurrent cohort of nonoperated control patients. The primary study end points of major cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, stroke, and congestive heart failure) were evaluated using Cox regression. Secondary end points of longitudinal cardiovascular risk factors were evaluated using repeated-measures regression. The RYGB and matched controls (N=1724 in each cohort) were followed for up to 12 years after surgery (overall median of 6.3 years). Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed a statistically significant reduction in incident major composite cardiovascular events ( P =0.017) and congestive heart failure (0.0077) for the RYGB cohort. Adjusted Cox regression models confirmed the reductions in severe composite cardiovascular events in the RYGB cohort (hazard ratio=0.58, 95% CI=0.42-0.82). Improvements of cardiovascular risk factors (eg, 10-year cardiovascular risk score, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein, systolic blood pressure, and diabetes mellitus) were observed within the RYGB cohort after surgery. Gastric bypass is associated with a reduced risk of major cardiovascular events and the development of congestive heart failure. © 2017 The Authors and Geisinger Clinic. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Evolving strategies, opportunistic implementation: HIV risk reduction in Tanzania in the context of an incentive-based HIV prevention intervention.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura Packel

Full Text Available Behavior change communication (BCC interventions, while still a necessary component of HIV prevention, have not on their own been shown to be sufficient to stem the tide of the epidemic. The shortcomings of BCC interventions are partly due to barriers arising from structural or economic constraints. Arguments are being made for combination prevention packages that include behavior change, biomedical, and structural interventions to address the complex set of risk factors that may lead to HIV infection.In 2009/2010 we conducted 216 in-depth interviews with a subset of study participants enrolled in the RESPECT study - an HIV prevention trial in Tanzania that used cash awards to incentivize safer sexual behaviors. We analyzed community diaries to understand how the study was perceived in the community. We drew on these data to enhance our understanding of how the intervention influenced strategies for risk reduction.We found that certain situations provide increased leverage for sexual negotiation, and these situations facilitated opportunistic implementation of risk reduction strategies. Opportunities enabled by the RESPECT intervention included leveraging conditional cash awards, but participants also emphasized the importance of exploiting new health status knowledge from regular STI testing. Risk reduction strategies included condom use within partnerships and/or with other partners, and an unexpected emphasis on temporary abstinence.Our results highlight the importance of increasing opportunities for implementing risk reduction strategies. We found that an incentive-based intervention could be effective in part by creating such opportunities, particularly among groups such as women with limited sexual agency. The results provide new evidence that expanding regular testing of STIs is another important mechanism for providing opportunities for negotiating behavior change, beyond the direct benefits of testing. Exploiting the latent demand for

Nonvitamin-K-antagonist oral anticoagulants versus warfarin in patients with atrial fibrillation and previous stroke or transient ischemic attack: An updated systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

Science.gov (United States)

Ntaios, George; Papavasileiou, Vasileios; Diener, Hans-Chris; Makaritsis, Konstantinos; Michel, Patrik

2017-08-01

Background In a previous systematic review and meta-analysis, we assessed the efficacy and safety of nonvitamin-K antagonist oral anticoagulants versus warfarin in patients with atrial fibrillation and stroke or transient ischemic attack. Since then, new information became available. Aim The aim of the present work was to update the results of the previous systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods We searched PubMed until 24 August 2016 for randomized controlled trials using the following search items: "atrial fibrillation" and "anticoagulation" and "warfarin" and "previous stroke or transient ischemic attack." Eligible studies had to be phase III trials in patients with atrial fibrillation comparing warfarin with nonvitamin-K antagonist oral anticoagulants currently on the market or with the intention to be brought to the market in North America or Europe. The outcomes assessed in the efficacy analysis included stroke or systemic embolism, stroke, ischemic or unknown stroke, disabling or fatal stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, cardiovascular death, death from any cause, and myocardial infarction. The outcomes assessed in the safety analysis included major bleeding, intracranial bleeding, and major gastrointestinal bleeding. We performed fixed effects analyses on intention-to-treat basis. Results Among 183 potentially eligible articles, four were included in the meta-analysis. In 20,500 patients, compared to warfarin, nonvitamin-K antagonist oral anticoagulants were associated with a significant reduction of stroke/systemic embolism (relative risk reduction: 13.7%, absolute risk reduction: 0.78%, number needed to treat to prevent one event: 127), hemorrhagic stroke (relative risk reduction: 50.0%, absolute risk reduction: 0.63%, number needed to treat: 157), any stroke (relative risk reduction: 13.1%, absolute risk reduction: 0.7%, number needed to treat: 142), and intracranial hemorrhage (relative risk reduction: 46.1%, absolute risk reduction: 0.88%, number needed

Redetermination and absolute configuration of atalaphylline

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hoong-Kun Fun

2010-02-01

Full Text Available The title acridone alkaloid [systematic name: 1,3,5-trihydroxy-2,4-bis(3-methylbut-2-enylacridin-9(10H-one], C23H25NO4, has previously been reported as crystallizing in the chiral orthorhombic space group P212121 [Chantrapromma et al. (2010. Acta Cryst. E66, o81–o82] but the absolute configuration could not be determined from data collected with Mo radiation. The absolute configuration has now been determined by refinement of the Flack parameter with data collected using Cu radiation. All features of the molecule and its crystal packing are similar to those previously described.

Absolute calibration of sniffer probes on Wendelstein 7-X

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moseev, D.; Laqua, H. P.; Marsen, S.; Stange, T.; Braune, H.; Erckmann, V.; Gellert, F.; Oosterbeek, J. W.

2016-01-01

Here we report the first measurements of the power levels of stray radiation in the vacuum vessel of Wendelstein 7-X using absolutely calibrated sniffer probes. The absolute calibration is achieved by using calibrated sources of stray radiation and the implicit measurement of the quality factor of the Wendelstein 7-X empty vacuum vessel. Normalized absolute calibration coefficients agree with the cross-calibration coefficients that are obtained by the direct measurements, indicating that the measured absolute calibration coefficients and stray radiation levels in the vessel are valid. Close to the launcher, the stray radiation in the empty vessel reaches power levels up to 340 kW/m 2 per MW injected beam power. Furthest away from the launcher, i.e., half a toroidal turn, still 90 kW/m 2 per MW injected beam power is measured.

Absolute calibration of sniffer probes on Wendelstein 7-X

Science.gov (United States)

Moseev, D.; Laqua, H. P.; Marsen, S.; Stange, T.; Braune, H.; Erckmann, V.; Gellert, F.; Oosterbeek, J. W.

2016-08-01

Here we report the first measurements of the power levels of stray radiation in the vacuum vessel of Wendelstein 7-X using absolutely calibrated sniffer probes. The absolute calibration is achieved by using calibrated sources of stray radiation and the implicit measurement of the quality factor of the Wendelstein 7-X empty vacuum vessel. Normalized absolute calibration coefficients agree with the cross-calibration coefficients that are obtained by the direct measurements, indicating that the measured absolute calibration coefficients and stray radiation levels in the vessel are valid. Close to the launcher, the stray radiation in the empty vessel reaches power levels up to 340 kW/m2 per MW injected beam power. Furthest away from the launcher, i.e., half a toroidal turn, still 90 kW/m2 per MW injected beam power is measured.

Absolute calibration of sniffer probes on Wendelstein 7-X

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moseev, D., E-mail: dmitry.moseev@ipp.mpg.de; Laqua, H. P.; Marsen, S.; Stange, T.; Braune, H.; Erckmann, V. [Max-Planck-Institut für Plasmaphysik, Greifswald (Germany); Gellert, F. [Max-Planck-Institut für Plasmaphysik, Greifswald (Germany); Ernst-Moritz-Arndt-Universität Greifswald, Greifswald (Germany); Oosterbeek, J. W. [Eindhoven University of Technology, Eindhoven (Netherlands)

2016-08-15

Here we report the first measurements of the power levels of stray radiation in the vacuum vessel of Wendelstein 7-X using absolutely calibrated sniffer probes. The absolute calibration is achieved by using calibrated sources of stray radiation and the implicit measurement of the quality factor of the Wendelstein 7-X empty vacuum vessel. Normalized absolute calibration coefficients agree with the cross-calibration coefficients that are obtained by the direct measurements, indicating that the measured absolute calibration coefficients and stray radiation levels in the vessel are valid. Close to the launcher, the stray radiation in the empty vessel reaches power levels up to 340 kW/m{sup 2} per MW injected beam power. Furthest away from the launcher, i.e., half a toroidal turn, still 90 kW/m{sup 2} per MW injected beam power is measured.

Effect of Using Different Vehicle Weight Groups on the Estimated Relationship Between Mass Reduction and U.S. Societal Fatality Risk per Vehicle Miles of Travel

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wenzel, Tom P. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Environmental Technologies Area. Building Technology and Urban Systems Division

2016-08-22

This report recalculates the estimated relationship between vehicle mass and societal fatality risk, using alternative groupings by vehicle weight, to test whether the trend of decreasing fatality risk from mass reduction as case vehicle mass increases, holds over smaller increments of the range in case vehicle masses. The NHTSA baseline regression model estimates the relationship using for two weight groups for cars and light trucks; we re-estimated the mass reduction coefficients using four, six, and eight bins of vehicle mass. The estimated effect of mass reduction on societal fatality risk was not consistent over the range in vehicle masses in these weight bins. These results suggest that the relationship indicated by the NHTSA baseline model is a result of other, unmeasured attributes of the mix of vehicles in the lighter vs. heavier weight bins, and not necessarily the result of a correlation between mass reduction and societal fatality risk. An analysis of the average vehicle, driver, and crash characteristics across the various weight groupings did not reveal any strong trends that might explain the lack of a consistent trend of decreasing fatality risk from mass reduction in heavier vehicles.

Absolute magnitudes by statistical parallaxes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heck, A.

1978-01-01

The author describes an algorithm for stellar luminosity calibrations (based on the principle of maximum likelihood) which allows the calibration of relations of the type: Msub(i)=sup(N)sub(j=1)Σqsub(j)Csub(ij), i=1,...,n, where n is the size of the sample at hand, Msub(i) are the individual absolute magnitudes, Csub(ij) are observational quantities (j=1,...,N), and qsub(j) are the coefficients to be determined. If one puts N=1 and Csub(iN)=1, one has q 1 =M(mean), the mean absolute magnitude of the sample. As additional output, the algorithm provides one also with the dispersion in magnitude of the sample sigmasub(M), the mean solar motion (U,V,W) and the corresponding velocity ellipsoid (sigmasub(u), sigmasub(v), sigmasub(w). The use of this algorithm is illustrated. (Auth.)

Correlates of HIV Risk Reduction Self-Efficacy among Youth in South Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Julia Louw

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Even though a decline in HIV prevalence has been reported among South African youth 15–24 from 10.3% in 2005 to 8.6% in 2008, the prevalence remains disproportionately high for females overall in comparison to males. This study examines factors associated by HIV risk reduction self-efficacy of South African youth as part of an evaluation of the impact of loveLife, a youth focused HIV prevention programme. A cross-sectional population-based household survey was conducted with persons of ages 18 to 24 years in four selected provinces in South Africa. Among female respondents (, factors associated with high self-efficacy in the adjusted model were having a low HIV risk perception, HIV/AIDS stigma, ever using drugs, and having life goals. Male respondents ( with high self-efficacy were more likely to have been tested for HIV, have concurrent sexual partners, have had a transactional sex partner in lifetime, a low HIV risk perception, difficulty in having condoms, agreed with coercive sex, high relationship control, and had loveLife face-to-face programme participation. The factors identified with high self-efficacy and HIV-sexual risk behaviour may be considered to strengthen youth HIV prevention programmes in South Africa.

Methodology to predict long-term cancer survival from short-term data using Tobacco Cancer Risk and Absolute Cancer Cure models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mould, R F; Lederman, M; Tai, P; Wong, J K M

2002-01-01

Three parametric statistical models have been fully validated for cancer of the larynx for the prediction of long-term 15, 20 and 25 year cancer-specific survival fractions when short-term follow-up data was available for just 1-2 years after the end of treatment of the last patient. In all groups of cases the treatment period was only 5 years. Three disease stage groups were studied, T1N0, T2N0 and T3N0. The models are the Standard Lognormal (SLN) first proposed by Boag (1949 J. R. Stat. Soc. Series B 11 15-53) but only ever fully validated for cancer of the cervix, Mould and Boag (1975 Br. J. Cancer 32 529-50), and two new models which have been termed Tobacco Cancer Risk (TCR) and Absolute Cancer Cure (ACC). In each, the frequency distribution of survival times of defined groups of cancer deaths is lognormally distributed: larynx only (SLN), larynx and lung (TCR) and all cancers (ACC). All models each have three unknown parameters but it was possible to estimate a value for the lognormal parameter S a priori. By reduction to two unknown parameters the model stability has been improved. The material used to validate the methodology consisted of case histories of 965 patients, all treated during the period 1944-1968 by Dr Manuel Lederman of the Royal Marsden Hospital, London, with follow-up to 1988. This provided a follow-up range of 20- 44 years and enabled predicted long-term survival fractions to be compared with the actual survival fractions, calculated by the Kaplan and Meier (1958 J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 53 457-82) method. The TCR and ACC models are better than the SLN model and for a maximum short-term follow-up of 6 years, the 20 and 25 year survival fractions could be predicted. Therefore the numbers of follow-up years saved are respectively 14 years and 19 years. Clinical trial results using the TCR and ACC models can thus be analysed much earlier than currently possible. Absolute cure from cancer was also studied, using not only the prediction models which

Evaluation of severe accident risks and the potential for risk reduction: Peach Bottom, Unit 2. Main report. Draft for comment, February 1987

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Amos, C N [Technadyne Engineering Consultants, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Benjamin, A S; Griesmeyer, J M; Haskin, F E; Kunsman, D M [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Boyd, G J; Lewis, S R [Safety and Reliability Optimization Services, Inc., Knoxville, TN (United States); Helton, J C [Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ (United States); Smith, L N [Science Applications International Corporation, Albuquerque, NM (United States)

1987-04-01

The Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a rebaselining of the risks to the public from a boiling water reactor with a Mark I containment (Peach Bottom, Unit 2). Emphasis was placed on determining the magnitude and character of the uncertainties, rather than focusing on a point estimate. The risk-reduction potential of a set of proposed safety option backfits was also studied, and their costs and benefits were also evaluated. It was found that the risks from internal events are generally low relative to previous studies; for example, most of the uncertainty range is lower than the point estimate of risk for the Peach Bottom plant in the Reactor Safety Study (RSS). However, certain unresolved issues cause the top of the uncertainty band to appear at a level that is comparable with the RSS point estimate. These issues include the modeling of the common-mode failures for the dc power system, the likelihood of offsite power recovery versus time during a station blackout, the probability of drywell failure resulting from meltthrough of the drywell shell, the magnitude of the fission product releases during core-concrete interactions, and the decontamination effectiveness of the reactor enclosure building. Most of the postulated safety options do not appear to be cost effective, although some based on changes to procedures or inexpensive hardware additions may be marginally cost effective. This draft for comment of the SARRP report for Peach Bottom does not include detailed technical appendices, which are still in preparation. The appendices will be issued under separate cover when completed. This work supports the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's assessment of severe accidents in NUREG-1150. (author)

The Framingham Risk Function Underestimated Absolute Coronary Heart Disease Risk in Czech Men

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Reissigová, Jindra; Zvárová, Jana

2007-01-01

Roč. 46, č. 1 (2007), s. 43-49 ISSN 0026-1270 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : external validation * Framingham risk function * coronary heart disease Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 1.451, year: 2007

Analysis of risk-reduction measures for multiunit essential service water systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kohut, P.; Musicki, Z.; Fitzpatrick, R.

1989-01-01

Many risk analyses have indicated the potentially significant contribution to core damage frequency (CDF) due to the loss of the essential service water (ESW) function. The ESW system serves as the ultimate heat sink, and its failure can affect numerous safety components and systems, although it does not directly perform a frontline safety function. As such, probabilistic risk assessment studies usually analyze its failures through support system modeling; however, the direct loss of the ESW as an initiator may or may not be explicitly treated. In addition, the actual analysis is made more complex due to the linked initiating event nature of these events, since the system fault trees are coupled to the initiator in these cases. Previously, a specific safety issue was identified concerning the increase in core-melt vulnerability caused by the failure of the ESW system in pressurized water reactor (PWR) multiplant units that have only two service water (SW) pumps per unit with a backup crosstie capability to the other unit. The main objective of the present study was to establish a realistic measure of the core damage vulnerability, to identify potential improvements for the ESW systems, and to obtain generic estimates of their risk-reduction potential and cost-effectiveness

[Tobacco and plastic surgery: An absolute contraindication?

Science.gov (United States)

Matusiak, C; De Runz, A; Maschino, H; Brix, M; Simon, E; Claudot, F

2017-08-01

Smoking increases perioperative risk regarding wound healing, infection rate and failure of microsurgical procedures. There is no present consensus about plastic and aesthetic surgical indications concerning smoking patients. The aim of our study is to analyze French plastic surgeons practices concerning smokers. A questionnaire was send by e-mail to French plastic surgeons in order to evaluate their own operative indications: patient information about smoking dangers, pre- and postoperative delay of smoking cessation, type of intervention carried out, smoking cessation supports, use of screening test and smoking limit associated to surgery refusing were studied. Statistical tests were used to compare results according to practitioner activity (liberal or public), own smoking habits and time of installation. In 148 questionnaires, only one surgeon did not explain smoking risk. Of the surgeons, 49.3% proposed smoking-cessation supports, more frequently with public practice (P=0.019). In total, 85.4% of surgeons did not use screening tests. Years of installation affected operative indication with smoking patients (P=0.02). Pre- and postoperative smoking cessation delay were on average respectively 4 and 3 weeks in accordance with literature. Potential improvements could be proposed to smoking patients' care: smoking cessation assistance, screening tests, absolute contraindication of some procedures or level of consumption to determine. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.