WorldWideScience

Sample records for absolute age estimates

  1. Estimating Absolute and Relative Physical Activity Intensity Across Age via Accelerometry in Adults

    OpenAIRE

    Miller, Nora E.; Strath, Scott J.; Swartz, Ann M.; Cashin, Susan E.

    2010-01-01

    This study examined the predictive validity of accelerometers (ACC) to estimate physical activity intensity (PAI) across age and differences in intensity predictions when expressed in relative and absolute PAI terms. Ninety adults categorized into 3 age groups (20–29, 40–49, and 60–69 yr) completed a treadmill calibration study with simultaneous ACC (7164 Actigraph) and oxygen-consumption assessment. Results revealed strong linear relations between ACC output and measured PAI (R2 = .62–.89) a...

  2. Updated Absolute Age Estimates for the Tolstoj and Caloris Basins, Mercury

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ernst, C. M.; Denevi, B. W.; Ostrach, L. R.

    2016-12-01

    Time-stratigraphic systems are developed to provide a framework to derive the relative ages of terrains across a given planet, estimate their absolute ages, and aid cross-planet comparisons. Mercury's time-stratigraphic system was modeled after that of the Moon, with five systems defined on the basis of geologic mapping using Mariner 10 images. From oldest to youngest, Mercury's time-stratigraphic system contains the pre-Tolstojan, Tolstojan, Calorian, Mansurian, and Kuiperian systems. The formations of the Tolstoj and Caloris basins mark the start of the Tolstojan and Calorian systems, respectively. The Mansurian and Kuiperian systems are defined by the type craters for which they are named. The completion of MESSENGER's global image dataset marks an appropriate time to re-assess the time-stratigraphic system of the innermost planet. Recent work suggests the Mansurian and Kuiperian systems may have begun as recently as 1.7 Ga and 280 Ma, respectively (Banks et al., 2016). We used MESSENGER data to re-evaluate the relative and absolute ages of the Tolstoj and Caloris basins in to complete the reassessment of Mercury's time-stratigraphic system. We redefine basin rim units for Tolstoj and Caloris determine the crater size-frequency distribution for craters larger than 10 km in diameter. Two models for crater production are used to derive absolute ages from the crater counts: Marchi et al., 2009 (M) using a main belt asteroid-like impactor size-frequency distribution, hard rock crater scaling relations, target strength of 2e7 dyne/cm2, and target and projectile densities of 3.4 g/cm3 and 2.6 g/cm3; and Le Feuvre and Wieczorek 2011 (L&W) using non-porous scaling relations. We find N(20) values (the number of craters ≥ 20 km in diameter per million square km) for the Caloris rim of 37 ± 7 and for the Tolstoj rim of 93 ± 15. We derived model ages of 3.9 Ga (M) and 3.7 Ga (L&W) for Tolstoj and 3.7 Ga (M) and 3.1 Ga (L&W) for Caloris. Analysis to refine the ages using

  3. Absolute and estimated values of macular pigment optical density in young and aged Asian participants with or without age-related macular degeneration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozawa, Yoko; Shigeno, Yuta; Nagai, Norihiro; Suzuki, Misa; Kurihara, Toshihide; Minami, Sakiko; Hirano, Eri; Shinoda, Hajime; Kobayashi, Saori; Tsubota, Kazuo

    2017-08-29

    Lutein and zeaxanthin are suggested micronutrient supplements to prevent the progression of age-related macular degeneration (AMD), a leading cause of blindness worldwide. To monitor the levels of lutein/zeaxanthin in the macula, macular pigment optical density (MPOD) is measured. A commercially available device (MPSII®, Elektron Technology, Switzerland), using technology based on heterochromatic flicker photometry, can measure both absolute and estimated values of MPOD. However, whether the estimated value is applicable to Asian individuals and/or AMD patients remains to be determined. The absolute and estimated values of MPOD were measured using the MPSII® device in 77 participants with a best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) > 0.099 (logMAR score). The studied eyes included 17 young (20-29 years) healthy, 26 aged (>50 years) healthy, 18 aged and AMD-fellow, and 16 aged AMD eyes. The mean BCVA among the groups were not significantly different. Both absolute and estimated values were measurable in all eyes of young healthy group. However, absolute values were measurable in only 57.7%, 66.7%, and 43.8%, of the aged healthy, AMD-fellow, and AMD groups, respectively, and 56.7% of the eyes included in the 3 aged groups. In contrast, the estimated value was measurable in 84.6%, 88.9% and 93.8% of the groups, respectively, and 88.3% of eyes in the pooled aged group. The estimated value was correlated with absolute value in individuals from all groups by Spearman's correlation coefficient analyses (young healthy: R 2  = 0.885, P = 0.0001; aged healthy: R 2  = 0.765, P = 0.001; AMD-fellow: R 2  = 0.851, P = 0.0001; and AMD: R 2  = 0.860, P = 0.013). Using the estimated value, significantly lower MPOD values were found in aged AMD-related eyes, which included both AMD-fellow and AMD eyes, compared with aged healthy eyes by Student's t-test (P = 0.02). Absolute, in contrast to estimated, value was measurable in a limited number of aged participants

  4. On a New Near-Infrared Method to Estimate the Absolute Ages of Star Clusters: NGC 3201 as a First Test Case

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bono, G.; Stetson, P. B.; VandenBerg, D. A.; Calamida, A.; Dall'Ora, M.; Iannicola, G.; Amico, P.; Di Cecco, A.; Marchetti, E.; Monelli, M.; Sanna, N.; Walker, A. R.; Zoccali, M.; Buonanno, R.; Caputo, F.; Corsi, C. E.; Degl'Innocenti, S.; D'Odorico, S.; Ferraro, I.; Gilmozzi, R.; Melnick, J.; Nonino, M.; Ortolani, S.; Piersimoni, A. M.; Prada Moroni, P. G.; Pulone, L.; Romaniello, M.; Storm, J.

    2010-01-01

    We present a new method to estimate the absolute ages of stellar systems. This method is based on the difference in magnitude between the main-sequence turnoff (MSTO) and a well-defined knee located along the lower main sequence (MSK). This feature is caused by the collisionally induced absorption of molecular hydrogen, and it can easily be identified in near-infrared (NIR) and in optical-NIR color-magnitude diagrams of stellar systems. We took advantage of deep and accurate NIR images collected with the Multi-Conjugate Adaptive Optics Demonstrator temporarily available on the Very Large Telescope and of optical images collected with the Advanced Camera for Surveys Wide Field Camera on the Hubble Space Telescope and with ground-based telescopes to estimate the absolute age of the globular NGC 3201 using both the MSTO and the Δ(MSTO-MSK). We have adopted a new set of cluster isochrones, and we found that the absolute ages based on the two methods agree to within 1σ. However, the errors of the ages based on the Δ(MSTO-MSK) method are potentially more than a factor of 2 smaller, since they are not affected by uncertainties in cluster distance or reddening. Current isochrones appear to predict slightly bluer (≈0.05 mag) NIR and optical-NIR colors than observed for magnitudes fainter than the MSK. Based on near infrared observations made with ESO telescopes SOFI at NTT, La Silla; MAD at VLT Paranal, projects: 66.D-0557, 074.D-0655, ID96406, and with the Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory (CTIO) telescope ISPI at 4m Blanco, La Serena. Based on optical data collected with ESO telescopes and retrieved from the ESO Science Archive Facility. This research used the facilities of the Canadian Astronomy Data Centre operated by the National Research Council of Canada with the support of the Canadian Space Agency.

  5. A global algorithm for estimating Absolute Salinity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. J. McDougall

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The International Thermodynamic Equation of Seawater – 2010 has defined the thermodynamic properties of seawater in terms of a new salinity variable, Absolute Salinity, which takes into account the spatial variation of the composition of seawater. Absolute Salinity more accurately reflects the effects of the dissolved material in seawater on the thermodynamic properties (particularly density than does Practical Salinity.

    When a seawater sample has standard composition (i.e. the ratios of the constituents of sea salt are the same as those of surface water of the North Atlantic, Practical Salinity can be used to accurately evaluate the thermodynamic properties of seawater. When seawater is not of standard composition, Practical Salinity alone is not sufficient and the Absolute Salinity Anomaly needs to be estimated; this anomaly is as large as 0.025 g kg−1 in the northernmost North Pacific. Here we provide an algorithm for estimating Absolute Salinity Anomaly for any location (x, y, p in the world ocean.

    To develop this algorithm, we used the Absolute Salinity Anomaly that is found by comparing the density calculated from Practical Salinity to the density measured in the laboratory. These estimates of Absolute Salinity Anomaly however are limited to the number of available observations (namely 811. In order to provide a practical method that can be used at any location in the world ocean, we take advantage of approximate relationships between Absolute Salinity Anomaly and silicate concentrations (which are available globally.

  6. Absolute Navigation Information Estimation for Micro Planetary Rovers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Ilyas

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides algorithms to estimate absolute navigation information, e.g., absolute attitude and position, by using low power, weight and volume Microelectromechanical Systems-type (MEMS sensors that are suitable for micro planetary rovers. Planetary rovers appear to be easily navigable robots due to their extreme slow speed and rotation but, unfortunately, the sensor suites available for terrestrial robots are not always available for planetary rover navigation. This makes them difficult to navigate in a completely unexplored, harsh and complex environment. Whereas the relative attitude and position can be tracked in a similar way as for ground robots, absolute navigation information, unlike in terrestrial applications, is difficult to obtain for a remote celestial body, such as Mars or the Moon. In this paper, an algorithm called the EASI algorithm (Estimation of Attitude using Sun sensor and Inclinometer is presented to estimate the absolute attitude using a MEMS-type sun sensor and inclinometer, only. Moreover, the output of the EASI algorithm is fused with MEMS gyros to produce more accurate and reliable attitude estimates. An absolute position estimation algorithm has also been presented based on these on-board sensors. Experimental results demonstrate the viability of the proposed algorithms and the sensor suite for low-cost and low-weight micro planetary rovers.

  7. Absolute age determination of quaternary faults

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheong, Chang Sik; Lee, Seok Hoon; Choi, Man Sik

    2000-03-01

    To constrain the age of neotectonic fault movement, Rb-Sr, K-Ar, U-series disequilibrium, C-14 and Be-10 methods were applied to the fault gouges, fracture infillings and sediments from the Malbang, Ipsil, Wonwonsa faults faults in the Ulsan fault zone, Yangsan fault in the Yeongdeog area and southeastern coastal area. Rb-Sr and K-Ar data imply that the fault movement of the Ulan fault zone initiated at around 30 Ma and preliminary dating result for the Yang san fault is around 70 Ma in the Yeongdeog area. K-Ar and U-series disequilibrium dating results for fracture infillings in the Ipsil fault are consistent with reported ESR ages. Radiocarbon ages of quaternary sediments from the Jeongjari area are discordant with stratigraphic sequence. Carbon isotope data indicate a difference of sedimentry environment for those samples. Be-10 dating results for the Suryum fault area are consistent with reported OSL results

  8. Absolute age determination of quaternary faults

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cheong, Chang Sik; Lee, Seok Hoon; Choi, Man Sik [Korea Basic Science Institute, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)] (and others)

    2000-03-15

    To constrain the age of neotectonic fault movement, Rb-Sr, K-Ar, U-series disequilibrium, C-14 and Be-10 methods were applied to the fault gouges, fracture infillings and sediments from the Malbang, Ipsil, Wonwonsa faults faults in the Ulsan fault zone, Yangsan fault in the Yeongdeog area and southeastern coastal area. Rb-Sr and K-Ar data imply that the fault movement of the Ulan fault zone initiated at around 30 Ma and preliminary dating result for the Yang san fault is around 70 Ma in the Yeongdeog area. K-Ar and U-series disequilibrium dating results for fracture infillings in the Ipsil fault are consistent with reported ESR ages. Radiocarbon ages of quaternary sediments from the Jeongjari area are discordant with stratigraphic sequence. Carbon isotope data indicate a difference of sedimentry environment for those samples. Be-10 dating results for the Suryum fault area are consistent with reported OSL results.

  9. Should heart age calculators be used alongside absolute cardiovascular disease risk assessment?

    OpenAIRE

    Bonner, Carissa; Bell, Katy; Jansen, Jesse; Glasziou, Paul; Irwig, Les; Doust, Jenny; McCaffery, Kirsten

    2018-01-01

    Background National estimates of ‘heart age’ by government health organisations in the US, UK and China show most people have an older heart age than current age. While most heart age calculators are promoted as a communication tool for lifestyle change, they may also be used to justify medication when clinical guidelines advocate their use alongside absolute risk assessment. However, only those at high absolute risk of a heart attack or stroke are likely to benefit from medication, and it is...

  10. Absolute and Relative Socioeconomic Health Inequalities across Age Groups.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sander K R van Zon

    Full Text Available The magnitude of socioeconomic health inequalities differs across age groups. It is less clear whether socioeconomic health inequalities differ across age groups by other factors that are known to affect the relation between socioeconomic position and health, like the indicator of socioeconomic position, the health outcome, gender, and as to whether socioeconomic health inequalities are measured in absolute or in relative terms. The aim is to investigate whether absolute and relative socioeconomic health inequalities differ across age groups by indicator of socioeconomic position, health outcome and gender.The study sample was derived from the baseline measurement of the LifeLines Cohort Study and consisted of 95,432 participants. Socioeconomic position was measured as educational level and household income. Physical and mental health were measured with the RAND-36. Age concerned eleven 5-years age groups. Absolute inequalities were examined by comparing means. Relative inequalities were examined by comparing Gini-coefficients. Analyses were performed for both health outcomes by both educational level and household income. Analyses were performed for all age groups, and stratified by gender.Absolute and relative socioeconomic health inequalities differed across age groups by indicator of socioeconomic position, health outcome, and gender. Absolute inequalities were most pronounced for mental health by household income. They were larger in younger than older age groups. Relative inequalities were most pronounced for physical health by educational level. Gini-coefficients were largest in young age groups and smallest in older age groups.Absolute and relative socioeconomic health inequalities differed cross-sectionally across age groups by indicator of socioeconomic position, health outcome and gender. Researchers should critically consider the implications of choosing a specific age group, in addition to the indicator of socioeconomic position and

  11. Absolute and Relative Socioeconomic Health Inequalities across Age Groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Zon, Sander K R; Bültmann, Ute; Mendes de Leon, Carlos F; Reijneveld, Sijmen A

    2015-01-01

    The magnitude of socioeconomic health inequalities differs across age groups. It is less clear whether socioeconomic health inequalities differ across age groups by other factors that are known to affect the relation between socioeconomic position and health, like the indicator of socioeconomic position, the health outcome, gender, and as to whether socioeconomic health inequalities are measured in absolute or in relative terms. The aim is to investigate whether absolute and relative socioeconomic health inequalities differ across age groups by indicator of socioeconomic position, health outcome and gender. The study sample was derived from the baseline measurement of the LifeLines Cohort Study and consisted of 95,432 participants. Socioeconomic position was measured as educational level and household income. Physical and mental health were measured with the RAND-36. Age concerned eleven 5-years age groups. Absolute inequalities were examined by comparing means. Relative inequalities were examined by comparing Gini-coefficients. Analyses were performed for both health outcomes by both educational level and household income. Analyses were performed for all age groups, and stratified by gender. Absolute and relative socioeconomic health inequalities differed across age groups by indicator of socioeconomic position, health outcome, and gender. Absolute inequalities were most pronounced for mental health by household income. They were larger in younger than older age groups. Relative inequalities were most pronounced for physical health by educational level. Gini-coefficients were largest in young age groups and smallest in older age groups. Absolute and relative socioeconomic health inequalities differed cross-sectionally across age groups by indicator of socioeconomic position, health outcome and gender. Researchers should critically consider the implications of choosing a specific age group, in addition to the indicator of socioeconomic position and health outcome

  12. Should heart age calculators be used alongside absolute cardiovascular disease risk assessment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonner, Carissa; Bell, Katy; Jansen, Jesse; Glasziou, Paul; Irwig, Les; Doust, Jenny; McCaffery, Kirsten

    2018-02-07

    National estimates of 'heart age' by government health organisations in the US, UK and China show most people have an older heart age than current age. While most heart age calculators are promoted as a communication tool for lifestyle change, they may also be used to justify medication when clinical guidelines advocate their use alongside absolute risk assessment. However, only those at high absolute risk of a heart attack or stroke are likely to benefit from medication, and it is not always clear how heart age relates to absolute risk. This article aims to: 1) explain how heart age calculation methods relate to absolute risk guidelines; 2) summarise research investigating whether heart age improves risk communication; and 3) discuss implications for the use of medication and shared decision making in clinical practice. There is a large and growing number of heart age models and online calculators, but the clinical meaning of an older heart age result is highly variable. An older heart age result may indicate low, moderate or high absolute risk of a heart attack or stroke in the next 5-10 years, and the same individual may receive a younger or older heart age result depending on which calculator is used. Heart age may help doctors convey the need to change lifestyle, but it cannot help patients make an informed choice about medication to reduce CVD risk. Interactive heart age tools may be helpful as a communication tool to initiate lifestyle change to reduce risk factors. However, absolute risk should be used instead of heart age to enable informed decision making about medication, to avoid unnecessary treatment of low risk people. Evidence-based decision aids that improve patient understanding of absolute risk should be considered as alternatives to heart age calculators for lifestyle and medication decisions.

  13. The gender- and age-specific 10-year and lifetime absolute fracture risk in Tromso, Norway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmed, Luai A.; Schirmer, Henrik; Bjornerem, Ashild; Emaus, Nina; Jorgensen, Lone; Stormer, Jan; Joakimsen, Ragnar M.

    2009-01-01

    Aim of this study is to estimate the gender- and age-specific 10-year and lifetime absolute risks of non-vertebral and osteoporotic (included hip, distal forearm and proximal humerus) fractures in a large cohort of men and women. This is a population-based 10 years follow-up study of 26,891 subjects aged 25 years and older in Tromso, Norway. All non-vertebral fractures were registered from 1995 throughout 2004 by computerized search in radiographic archives. Absolute risks were estimated by life-table method taking into account the competing risk of death. The absolute fracture risk at each year of age was estimated for the next 10 years (10-year risk) or up to the age of 90 years (lifetime risk). The estimated 10-year absolute risk of all non-vertebral fracture was higher in men than women before but not after the age of 45 years. The 10-year absolute risk for non-vertebral and osteoporotic fractures was over 10%, respectively, in men over 65 and 70 years and in women over 45 and 50 years of age. The 10-year absolute risks of hip fractures at the age of 65 and 80 years were 4.2 and 18.6% in men, and 9.0 and 24.0% in women, respectively. The risk estimates for distal forearm and proximal humerus fractures were under 5% in men and 13% in women. The estimated lifetime risks for all fracture locations were higher in women than men at all ages. At the age of 50 years, the risks were 38.1 and 24.8% in men and 67.4 and 55.0% in women for all non-vertebral and osteoporotic fractures, respectively. The estimated gender- and age-specific 10-year and lifetime absolute fracture risk were higher in Tromso than in other populations. The high lifetime fracture risk reflects the increased burden of fractures in this cohort

  14. Absolute dating of the Aegean Late Bronze Age

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Warren, P.M.

    1987-01-01

    A recent argument for raising the absolute date of the beginning of the Aegean Late Bronze (LB) Age to about 1700 B.C. is critically examined. It is argued here that: (1) the alabaster lid from Knossos did have the stratigraphical context assigned to it by Evans, in all probability Middle Minoan IIIA, c. 1650 B.C.; (2) the attempt to date the alabastron found in an early Eighteenth Dynasty context at Aniba to Late Minoan IIIA:1 is open to objections; (3) radiocarbon dates from Aegean LB I contexts are too wide in their calibrated ranges and too inconsistent both within and between site sets to offer any reliable grounds at present for raising Aegean LB I absolute chronology to 1700 B.C. Other evidence, however, suggests this period began about 1600 B.C., i.e. some fifty years earlier than the conventional date of 1550 B.C. (author)

  15. Absolute Monotonicity of Functions Related To Estimates of First Eigenvalue of Laplace Operator on Riemannian Manifolds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feng Qi

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The authors find the absolute monotonicity and complete monotonicity of some functions involving trigonometric functions and related to estimates the lower bounds of the first eigenvalue of Laplace operator on Riemannian manifolds.

  16. The use of absolute values improves performance of estimation formulae

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Redal-Baigorri, Belén; Rasmussen, Knud; Heaf, James Goya

    2013-01-01

    clinical consequences in patients with extreme body sizes, resulting in an underestimation in the case of obesity or an overestimation of GFR in the case of underweight patients. The aim of this study was to compare the performance of both estimation formula expressed in ml/min, instead of ml/min per 1...... kidney function, thus providing clinicians with an alternative to reference methods....

  17. Poverty comparisons with absolute poverty lines estimated from survey data

    OpenAIRE

    Simler. Kenneth R.; Arndt, Channing

    2006-01-01

    "The objective of measuring poverty is usually to make comparisons over time or between two or more groups. Common statistical inference methods are used to determine whether an apparent difference in measured poverty is statistically significant. Studies of relative poverty have long recognized that when the poverty line is calculated from sample survey data, both the variance of the poverty line and the variance of the welfare metric contribute to the variance of the poverty estimate. In co...

  18. The use of absolute refractory period in the estimation of early postmortem interval.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDowall, K L; Lenihan, D V; Busuttil, A; Glasby, M A

    1998-02-16

    The estimation of the time since death (postmortem interval) is one of the most difficult problems in forensic pathology. Most methods currently employed use temperature-based algorithms intended to model the cooling of the body after death and thus estimate the postmortem interval. These methods are subject to considerable inaccuracy but their reliability can be improved if a range of other observed criteria such as lividity and rigor are also taken into consideration. The aim of the present study was to investigate the feasibility of using the absolute refractory period as an adjunct to the estimation of postmortem interval. The relationship between the 'postmortem interval' and the 'duration of absolute refractory period' was investigated using the rat sciatic nerve. A strong correlation between the duration of the absolute refractory period and the postmortem interval was observed. When both absolute refractory period and temperature were used in conjunction, the strength of this correlation was increased.

  19. Absolute and Relative Socioeconomic Health Inequalities across Age Groups

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Zon, Sander K. R.; Bultmann, Ute; de Leon, Carlos F. Mendes; Reijneveld, Sijmen A.

    2015-01-01

    Background The magnitude of socioeconomic health inequalities differs across age groups. It is less clear whether socioeconomic health inequalities differ across age groups by other factors that are known to affect the relation between socioeconomic position and health, like the indicator of

  20. Absolute age determination of quaternary fault and formation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheong, Chang Sik; Lee, Kwang Sik; Choi, Man Sik

    2003-03-01

    Rb-Sr and K-Ar dating results for the fault rocks suggest the occurrence of recurrent fault activity around 80-95 Ma, 70 Ma, 50 Ma, 30 Ma and 23 Ma along the Yangsan fault zone. The apparent K-Ar ages tend to be older than Rb-Sr ages, probably indicating the effect of excess radiogenic Ar, which will be furthur investigated by Ar-Ar method. The OSL SAR protocol using 220 .deg. C cut-heat yields reproducible and stratigraphically consistent OSL ages ranging from 71 ka to 48 ka for beach deposits of the marine terrace No 2. The apparent OSL ages for the marine terrace No 3 range from 92 ka to 61 ka. These ages constrain the minimum age of the platform considering the underestimation effect resulted from deposition underwater. Therefore we regard the formation age of the terrace No 3 as MIS(Marine Isotopic Stage) 5c or 5e. Rb-Sr and K-Ar dating results for the fault rocks suggest the occurrence of recurrent fault activity around 40 Ma, 30 Ma and 23 Ma along the Ulsan fault zone. Relatively young (< 10 Ma) fault activities are recognized in the Oesa, Janghangri and Wonwonsa sites

  1. Absolute age determination of quaternary fault and formation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cheong, Chang Sik; Lee, Kwang Sik; Choi, Man Sik [Korea Basic Science Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)] (and others)

    2003-03-15

    Rb-Sr and K-Ar dating results for the fault rocks suggest the occurrence of recurrent fault activity around 80-95 Ma, 70 Ma, 50 Ma, 30 Ma and 23 Ma along the Yangsan fault zone. The apparent K-Ar ages tend to be older than Rb-Sr ages, probably indicating the effect of excess radiogenic Ar, which will be furthur investigated by Ar-Ar method. The OSL SAR protocol using 220 .deg. C cut-heat yields reproducible and stratigraphically consistent OSL ages ranging from 71 ka to 48 ka for beach deposits of the marine terrace No 2. The apparent OSL ages for the marine terrace No 3 range from 92 ka to 61 ka. These ages constrain the minimum age of the platform considering the underestimation effect resulted from deposition underwater. Therefore we regard the formation age of the terrace No 3 as MIS(Marine Isotopic Stage) 5c or 5e. Rb-Sr and K-Ar dating results for the fault rocks suggest the occurrence of recurrent fault activity around 40 Ma, 30 Ma and 23 Ma along the Ulsan fault zone. Relatively young (< 10 Ma) fault activities are recognized in the Oesa, Janghangri and Wonwonsa sites.

  2. Age estimation in competitive sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timme, Maximilian; Steinacker, Jürgen Michael; Schmeling, Andreas

    2017-01-01

    To maintain the principle of sporting fairness and to protect the health of athletes, it is essential that age limits for youth sporting competitions are complied with. Forensic scientists have developed validated procedures for age estimation in living individuals. Methods have also been published for age estimation in competitive sports. These methods make use of the ossification stage of an epiphyseal plate to draw conclusions about an athlete's age. This article presents published work on the use of magnetic resonance imaging for age estimation in competitive sports. In addition, it looks at the effect on age estimation of factors such as an athlete's socioeconomic status, the use of hormones and anabolic substances as well as chronic overuse of the growth plates. Finally, recommendations on the components required for a valid age estimation procedure in competitive sports are suggested.

  3. Age estimation in the living

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sara Tangmose; Thevissen, Patrick; Lynnerup, Niels

    2015-01-01

    A radiographic assessment of third molar development is essential for differentiating between juveniles and adolescents in forensic age estimations. As the developmental stages of third molars are highly correlated, age estimates based on a combination of a full set of third molar scores...... unbiased age estimates which minimize the risk of wrongly estimating minors as adults. Furthermore, when corrected ad hoc, TA produces appropriate prediction intervals. As TA allows expansion with additional traits, i.e. stages of development of the left hand-wrist and the clavicle, it has a great...... are statistically complicated. Transition analysis (TA) is a statistical method developed for estimating age at death in skeletons, which combines several correlated developmental traits into one age estimate including a 95% prediction interval. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of TA...

  4. Absolute magnitude estimation and relative judgement approaches to subjective workload assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidulich, Michael A.; Tsang, Pamela S.

    1987-01-01

    Two rating scale techniques employing an absolute magnitude estimation method, were compared to a relative judgment method for assessing subjective workload. One of the absolute estimation techniques used was an unidimensional overall workload scale and the other was the multidimensional NASA-Task Load Index technique. Thomas Saaty's Analytic Hierarchy Process was the unidimensional relative judgment method used. These techniques were used to assess the subjective workload of various single- and dual-tracking conditions. The validity of the techniques was defined as their ability to detect the same phenomena observed in the tracking performance. Reliability was assessed by calculating test-retest correlations. Within the context of the experiment, the Saaty Analytic Hierarchy Process was found to be superior in validity and reliability. These findings suggest that the relative judgment method would be an effective addition to the currently available subjective workload assessment techniques.

  5. Absolute value optimization to estimate phase properties of stochastic time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scargle, J. D.

    1977-01-01

    Most existing deconvolution techniques are incapable of determining phase properties of wavelets from time series data; to assure a unique solution, minimum phase is usually assumed. It is demonstrated, for moving average processes of order one, that deconvolution filtering using the absolute value norm provides an estimate of the wavelet shape that has the correct phase character when the random driving process is nonnormal. Numerical tests show that this result probably applies to more general processes.

  6. GeMS MCAO observations of the Galactic globular cluster NGC 2808: the absolute age

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Massari, D.; Fiorentino, G.; McConnachie, A.; Bono, G.; Dall'Ora, M.; Ferraro, I.; Iannicola, G.; Stetson, P. B.; Turri, P.; Tolstoy, E.

    2016-01-01

    Context. Globular clusters are the oldest stellar systems in the Milky Way, and they probe the early epoch of the Galaxy formation. However, the uncertainties on their absolute age are still too large to soundly constrain how the Galactic structures have assembled. Aims: The aim of this work is to

  7. Performance of models for estimating absolute risk difference in multicenter trials with binary outcome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Pedroza

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Reporting of absolute risk difference (RD is recommended for clinical and epidemiological prospective studies. In analyses of multicenter studies, adjustment for center is necessary when randomization is stratified by center or when there is large variation in patients outcomes across centers. While regression methods are used to estimate RD adjusted for baseline predictors and clustering, no formal evaluation of their performance has been previously conducted. Methods We performed a simulation study to evaluate 6 regression methods fitted under a generalized estimating equation framework: binomial identity, Poisson identity, Normal identity, log binomial, log Poisson, and logistic regression model. We compared the model estimates to unadjusted estimates. We varied the true response function (identity or log, number of subjects per center, true risk difference, control outcome rate, effect of baseline predictor, and intracenter correlation. We compared the models in terms of convergence, absolute bias and coverage of 95 % confidence intervals for RD. Results The 6 models performed very similar to each other for the majority of scenarios. However, the log binomial model did not converge for a large portion of the scenarios including a baseline predictor. In scenarios with outcome rate close to the parameter boundary, the binomial and Poisson identity models had the best performance, but differences from other models were negligible. The unadjusted method introduced little bias to the RD estimates, but its coverage was larger than the nominal value in some scenarios with an identity response. Under the log response, coverage from the unadjusted method was well below the nominal value (<80 % for some scenarios. Conclusions We recommend the use of a binomial or Poisson GEE model with identity link to estimate RD for correlated binary outcome data. If these models fail to run, then either a logistic regression, log Poisson

  8. Manifold absolute pressure estimation using neural network with hybrid training algorithm.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohd Taufiq Muslim

    Full Text Available In a modern small gasoline engine fuel injection system, the load of the engine is estimated based on the measurement of the manifold absolute pressure (MAP sensor, which took place in the intake manifold. This paper present a more economical approach on estimating the MAP by using only the measurements of the throttle position and engine speed, resulting in lower implementation cost. The estimation was done via two-stage multilayer feed-forward neural network by combining Levenberg-Marquardt (LM algorithm, Bayesian Regularization (BR algorithm and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO algorithm. Based on the results found in 20 runs, the second variant of the hybrid algorithm yields a better network performance than the first variant of hybrid algorithm, LM, LM with BR and PSO by estimating the MAP closely to the simulated MAP values. By using a valid experimental training data, the estimator network that trained with the second variant of the hybrid algorithm showed the best performance among other algorithms when used in an actual retrofit fuel injection system (RFIS. The performance of the estimator was also validated in steady-state and transient condition by showing a closer MAP estimation to the actual value.

  9. Manifold absolute pressure estimation using neural network with hybrid training algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muslim, Mohd Taufiq; Selamat, Hazlina; Alimin, Ahmad Jais; Haniff, Mohamad Fadzli

    2017-01-01

    In a modern small gasoline engine fuel injection system, the load of the engine is estimated based on the measurement of the manifold absolute pressure (MAP) sensor, which took place in the intake manifold. This paper present a more economical approach on estimating the MAP by using only the measurements of the throttle position and engine speed, resulting in lower implementation cost. The estimation was done via two-stage multilayer feed-forward neural network by combining Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) algorithm, Bayesian Regularization (BR) algorithm and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm. Based on the results found in 20 runs, the second variant of the hybrid algorithm yields a better network performance than the first variant of hybrid algorithm, LM, LM with BR and PSO by estimating the MAP closely to the simulated MAP values. By using a valid experimental training data, the estimator network that trained with the second variant of the hybrid algorithm showed the best performance among other algorithms when used in an actual retrofit fuel injection system (RFIS). The performance of the estimator was also validated in steady-state and transient condition by showing a closer MAP estimation to the actual value.

  10. Adequacy of relative and absolute risk models for lifetime risk estimate of radiation-induced cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McBride, M.; Coldman, A.J.

    1988-03-01

    This report examines the applicability of the relative (multiplicative) and absolute (additive) models in predicting lifetime risk of radiation-induced cancer. A review of the epidemiologic literature, and a discussion of the mathematical models of carcinogenesis and their relationship to these models of lifetime risk, are included. Based on the available data, the relative risk model for the estimation of lifetime risk is preferred for non-sex-specific epithelial tumours. However, because of lack of knowledge concerning other determinants of radiation risk and of background incidence rates, considerable uncertainty in modelling lifetime risk still exists. Therefore, it is essential that follow-up of exposed cohorts be continued so that population-based estimates of lifetime risk are available

  11. Is the "Heart Age" Concept Helpful or Harmful Compared to Absolute Cardiovascular Disease Risk? An Experimental Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonner, Carissa; Jansen, Jesse; Newell, Ben R; Irwig, Les; Teixeira-Pinto, Armando; Glasziou, Paul; Doust, Jenny; McKinn, Shannon; McCaffery, Kirsten

    2015-11-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines are generally based on the absolute risk of a CVD event, but there is increasing interest in using 'heart age' to motivate lifestyle change when absolute risk is low. Previous studies have not compared heart age to 5-year absolute risk, or investigated the impact of younger heart age, graphical format, and numeracy. Compare heart age versus 5-year absolute risk on psychological and behavioral outcomes. 2 (heart age, absolute risk) × 3 (text only, bar graph, line graph) experiment. Online. 570 Australians aged 45-64 years, not taking CVD-related medication. CVD risk assessment. Intention to change lifestyle, recall, risk perception, emotional response, perceived credibility, and lifestyle behaviors after 2 weeks. Most participants had lifestyle risk factors (95%) but low 5-year absolute risk (94%). Heart age did not improve lifestyle intentions and behaviors compared to absolute risk, was more often interpreted as a higher-risk category by low-risk participants (47% vs 23%), and decreased perceived credibility and positive emotional response. Overall, correct recall dropped from 65% to 24% after 2 weeks, with heart age recalled better than absolute risk at 2 weeks (32% vs 16%). These results were found across younger and older heart age results, graphical format, and numeracy. Communicating CVD risk in a consultation rather than online may produce different results. There is no evidence that heart age motivates lifestyle change more than 5-year absolute risk in individuals with low CVD risk. Five-year absolute risk may be a better way to explain CVD risk, because it is more credible, does not inflate risk perception, and is consistent with clinical guidelines that base lifestyle and medication recommendations on absolute risk. © The Author(s) 2015.

  12. Simultaneous estimation of lithospheric uplift rates and absolute sea level change in southwest Scandinavia from inversion of sea level data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lars; Hansen, Jens Morten; Hede, Mikkel Ulfeldt

    2014-01-01

    of the obtained results. The two tested inversion schemes result in estimated absolute sea level rise of ∼1.2/1.3 mm yr–1 and vertical uplift rates ranging from approximately −1.4/−1.2 mm yr–1 (subsidence) to about 5.0/5.2 mm yr–1 if an a priori value of 1 mm yr–1 is used for the vertical lithospheric movement...... sea level data exists and well-constrained average lithospheric movement values are known from, for example glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models. The inversion approaches are tested and used for simultaneous estimation of lithospheric uplift rates and absolute sea level change rates in southwest...... that realistic values of absolute sea level rise and lithospheric uplift may be simultaneously estimated provided that reliable prior knowledge regarding the overall lithospheric uplift in the study area is available beforehand. In the presented parametrizations, only one absolute sea level change rate value...

  13. An Inverse Relative Age Effect in Male Alpine Skiers at the Absolute Top Level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjerke, Øyvind; Pedersen, Arve Vorland; Aune, Tore K; Lorås, Håvard

    2017-01-01

    The Relative Age Effect (RAE) can be described as the advantage of being born early after a certain cut-off date within a group of selection. The effect has been found across a wide range of sports and is particularly evident in pre-elite sports and team sports with a high selection pressure. At the absolute top level in team elite sports, the advantage of being relatively older has been reported to disappear, and even reverse, so that the relatively younger athletes are advantaged. In order to further examine such a reversal of the RAE, we investigated the performance of the overall top 50 skiers each year in the alpine World Cup, over a period of 20 years, among men ( N = 234) and women ( N = 235). The data indicated that the relatively younger male athletes at the absolute top level had accumulated, on average, more World Cup points compared to the relatively older skiers. No such effect was observed among the female skiers. This finding suggest the existence of a reversed relative age effect in male elite alpine skiing.

  14. An Inverse Relative Age Effect in Male Alpine Skiers at the Absolute Top Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Øyvind Bjerke

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The Relative Age Effect (RAE can be described as the advantage of being born early after a certain cut-off date within a group of selection. The effect has been found across a wide range of sports and is particularly evident in pre-elite sports and team sports with a high selection pressure. At the absolute top level in team elite sports, the advantage of being relatively older has been reported to disappear, and even reverse, so that the relatively younger athletes are advantaged. In order to further examine such a reversal of the RAE, we investigated the performance of the overall top 50 skiers each year in the alpine World Cup, over a period of 20 years, among men (N = 234 and women (N = 235. The data indicated that the relatively younger male athletes at the absolute top level had accumulated, on average, more World Cup points compared to the relatively older skiers. No such effect was observed among the female skiers. This finding suggest the existence of a reversed relative age effect in male elite alpine skiing.

  15. Binomial Distribution Sample Confidence Intervals Estimation 7. Absolute Risk Reduction and ARR-like Expressions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrei ACHIMAŞ CADARIU

    2004-08-01

    Full Text Available Assessments of a controlled clinical trial suppose to interpret some key parameters as the controlled event rate, experimental event date, relative risk, absolute risk reduction, relative risk reduction, number needed to treat when the effect of the treatment are dichotomous variables. Defined as the difference in the event rate between treatment and control groups, the absolute risk reduction is the parameter that allowed computing the number needed to treat. The absolute risk reduction is compute when the experimental treatment reduces the risk for an undesirable outcome/event. In medical literature when the absolute risk reduction is report with its confidence intervals, the method used is the asymptotic one, even if it is well know that may be inadequate. The aim of this paper is to introduce and assess nine methods of computing confidence intervals for absolute risk reduction and absolute risk reduction – like function.Computer implementations of the methods use the PHP language. Methods comparison uses the experimental errors, the standard deviations, and the deviation relative to the imposed significance level for specified sample sizes. Six methods of computing confidence intervals for absolute risk reduction and absolute risk reduction-like functions were assessed using random binomial variables and random sample sizes.The experiments shows that the ADAC, and ADAC1 methods obtains the best overall performance of computing confidence intervals for absolute risk reduction.

  16. Estimates of the Absolute and Relative Strengths of Diverse Alcoholic Drinks by Young People.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, Stephanie; Higgs, Suzanne; Terry, Philip

    2016-11-09

    Evidence suggests that college students are often unclear about how much alcohol is present in different drinks. To evaluate the abilities of students to estimate the alcohol contents of drinks, both in relative and absolute terms, and to examine how alcohol strength informs behavior. For 10 popular drinks that varied by alcohol content, beverage and volume, 209 UK university students rank-ordered the drinks according to total alcohol content and then estimated, for each drink, the number of UK "units" of alcohol contained and its percentage alcohol-by-volume (% ABV). Participants also reported the importance of drink strength as a factor in drink choice, and its influence in different scenarios. There was low but significant concordance between participants' rank-orderings of drinks by strength, and the correlation of mean ranks with correct ranks was also significant. However, their explicit estimates of the numbers of "units" in the drinks, and their % ABV values, often diverged dramatically from actual values. Participants tended to overestimate the unit contents of spirit-based drinks but underestimated the unit contents of beers and wine; women were consistently less accurate than men, typically making greater underestimates for commonly-consumed drinks. Over one-third of the sample reported that strength influenced drink choice, but its importance ranked below flavor and cost; drink strength might contribute to drink choice depending on the drinking situation. Conclusion/Importance: Young drinkers (women especially) have a poor awareness of the alcohol contents of different drinks, particularly wines and beers, but they make better judgments of relative strength.

  17. Reduced Haemodynamic Response in the Ageing Visual Cortex Measured by Absolute fNIRS.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura McKernan Ward

    Full Text Available The effect of healthy ageing on visual cortical activation is still to be fully explored. This study aimed to elucidate whether the haemodynamic response (HDR of the visual cortex altered as a result of ageing. Visually normal (healthy participants were presented with a simple visual stimulus (reversing checkerboard. Full optometric screening was implemented to identify two age groups: younger adults (n = 12, mean age 21 and older adults (n = 13, mean age 71. Frequency-domain Multi-distance (FD-MD functional Near-Infrared Spectroscopy (fNIRS was used to measure absolute changes in oxygenated [HbO] and deoxygenated [HbR] haemoglobin concentrations in the occipital cortices. Utilising a slow event-related design, subjects viewed a full field reversing checkerboard with contrast and check size manipulations (15 and 30 minutes of arc, 50% and 100% contrast. Both groups showed the characteristic response of increased [HbO] and decreased [HbR] during stimulus presentation. However, older adults produced a more varied HDR and often had comparable levels of [HbO] and [HbR] during both stimulus presentation and baseline resting state. Younger adults had significantly greater concentrations of both [HbO] and [HbR] in every investigation regardless of the type of stimulus displayed (p<0.05. The average variance associated with this age-related effect for [HbO] was 88% and [HbR] 91%. Passive viewing of a visual stimulus, without any cognitive input, showed a marked age-related decline in the cortical HDR. Moreover, regardless of stimulus parameters such as check size, the HDR was characterised by age. In concurrence with present neuroimaging literature, we conclude that the visual HDR decreases as healthy ageing proceeds.

  18. Global Kalman filter approaches to estimate absolute angles of lower limb segments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nogueira, Samuel L; Lambrecht, Stefan; Inoue, Roberto S; Bortole, Magdo; Montagnoli, Arlindo N; Moreno, Juan C; Rocon, Eduardo; Terra, Marco H; Siqueira, Adriano A G; Pons, Jose L

    2017-05-16

    In this paper we propose the use of global Kalman filters (KFs) to estimate absolute angles of lower limb segments. Standard approaches adopt KFs to improve the performance of inertial sensors based on individual link configurations. In consequence, for a multi-body system like a lower limb exoskeleton, the inertial measurements of one link (e.g., the shank) are not taken into account in other link angle estimations (e.g., foot). Global KF approaches, on the other hand, correlate the collective contribution of all signals from lower limb segments observed in the state-space model through the filtering process. We present a novel global KF (matricial global KF) relying only on inertial sensor data, and validate both this KF and a previously presented global KF (Markov Jump Linear Systems, MJLS-based KF), which fuses data from inertial sensors and encoders from an exoskeleton. We furthermore compare both methods to the commonly used local KF. The results indicate that the global KFs performed significantly better than the local KF, with an average root mean square error (RMSE) of respectively 0.942° for the MJLS-based KF, 1.167° for the matrical global KF, and 1.202° for the local KFs. Including the data from the exoskeleton encoders also resulted in a significant increase in performance. The results indicate that the current practice of using KFs based on local models is suboptimal. Both the presented KF based on inertial sensor data, as well our previously presented global approach fusing inertial sensor data with data from exoskeleton encoders, were superior to local KFs. We therefore recommend to use global KFs for gait analysis and exoskeleton control.

  19. Age Estimation for Dental Patients Using Orthopantomographs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karaarslan, Bekir; Karaarslan, Emine Sirin; Ozsevik, Abdul Semih; Ertas, Ertan

    2010-01-01

    Objectives: The aim of this study was to conduct age estimates for dental patients using orthopantomographs (OPGs). The OPGs were selected by an independent author with respect to criteria and evaluated by two independent dentists. The results were compared to chronologic ages. The reliability of the estimates, concurrently made by the two independent dentists using OPGs, was also evaluated. Methods: In this retrospective study, the OPGs of 238 Turkish individuals of known chronological age, ranging from 1 to 60 years, were measured. Patients were then classified. Radiographs were evaluated by two independent dentists and age estimation was achieved according to the decades. Results: The truest age estimates made by the dentists were in the 1–10 years age range (89.6%), the most inaccurate age estimates were in the 41–50 years age range (41.7%). Results indicate that the accuracy of age estimation diminishes with age. Conclusions: Despite the variations related to the practitioners, in this study, there were no significant differences in age estimations between the two participant practitioners. Age estimation through evaluating OPGs was the most accurate in the first decade and the least in fourth decade. It can be concluded that OPGs are not adequate for accurate age estimation. PMID:20922158

  20. The performance of different propensity score methods for estimating absolute effects of treatments on survival outcomes: A simulation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Peter C; Schuster, Tibor

    2016-10-01

    Observational studies are increasingly being used to estimate the effect of treatments, interventions and exposures on outcomes that can occur over time. Historically, the hazard ratio, which is a relative measure of effect, has been reported. However, medical decision making is best informed when both relative and absolute measures of effect are reported. When outcomes are time-to-event in nature, the effect of treatment can also be quantified as the change in mean or median survival time due to treatment and the absolute reduction in the probability of the occurrence of an event within a specified duration of follow-up. We describe how three different propensity score methods, propensity score matching, stratification on the propensity score and inverse probability of treatment weighting using the propensity score, can be used to estimate absolute measures of treatment effect on survival outcomes. These methods are all based on estimating marginal survival functions under treatment and lack of treatment. We then conducted an extensive series of Monte Carlo simulations to compare the relative performance of these methods for estimating the absolute effects of treatment on survival outcomes. We found that stratification on the propensity score resulted in the greatest bias. Caliper matching on the propensity score and a method based on earlier work by Cole and Hernán tended to have the best performance for estimating absolute effects of treatment on survival outcomes. When the prevalence of treatment was less extreme, then inverse probability of treatment weighting-based methods tended to perform better than matching-based methods. © The Author(s) 2014.

  1. Model linear absolute and relative risk estimates for cancer induced by ionizing radiation in Mexican cohort of occupationally exposed

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alvarez, R.J.T.; Trovar, M.V.M; González, J.F.

    2015-01-01

    From the rate of natural mortality m s cancer (t) for every 100 thousand habitants, modeled by a fourth-degree polynomial function of the age data of the Mexican population (2008), and assuming: a) a relationship 1: 5 of cancer induced radiation respect to presented spontaneously, b) a size of initial cohort No = 100 k SOPs, c) a speed of H E = (2 ± 1) mSv / received by the SOPs from 18 to 65 years, d) a latency of 8 years for cancer induction after irradiation, e) a time tracking cohort to 75 years, f) and taking the coefficients absolute and relative risk BEIRs induction of cancer models II and VII (excluding leukemia); It determined: BEIR II for a total of 125 and 400 deaths from cancer for absolute and relative linear models respectively. For BEIR VII has a number of fatal cases of 345 and 927 deaths respectively for absolute and relative linear model cancer. [es

  2. How to estimate dental age in paleodontology?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vedran Šebečić

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays there are many methods available for dental age estimation: morphological, radiological, biochemical. Some methods require sample sectioning while other non-destructive methods are more appropriate for use in paleodontology. Children’s dental age assessment is based on phases in growth and development of the deciduous and permanent dentition, while age assessment in the adult dentition is based upon changes in the structure of hard dental tissue caused by aging. Dental age calculating software enables automated age calculations.

  3. Bayesian estimation of isotopic age differences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Curl, R.L.

    1988-01-01

    Isotopic dating is subject to uncertainties arising from counting statistics and experimental errors. These uncertainties are additive when an isotopic age difference is calculated. If large, they can lead to no significant age difference by classical statistics. In many cases, relative ages are known because of stratigraphic order or other clues. Such information can be used to establish a Bayes estimate of age difference which will include prior knowledge of age order. Age measurement errors are assumed to be log-normal and a noninformative but constrained bivariate prior for two true ages in known order is adopted. True-age ratio is distributed as a truncated log-normal variate. Its expected value gives an age-ratio estimate, and its variance provides credible intervals. Bayesian estimates of ages are different and in correct order even if measured ages are identical or reversed in order. For example, age measurements on two samples might both yield 100 ka with coefficients of variation of 0.2. Bayesian estimates are 22.7 ka for age difference with a 75% credible interval of [4.4, 43.7] ka

  4. Problems determining relative and absolute ages using the small crater population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Zhiyong; Strom, Robert G.

    2012-07-01

    The small crater populations (diameter smaller than 1 km) are widely used to date planetary surfaces. The reliability of small crater counts is tested by counting small craters at several young and old lunar surfaces, including Mare Nubium and craters Alphonsus, Tycho and Giordano Bruno. Based on high-resolution images from both the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera and Kaguya Terrain Camera, small craters in two different diameter ranges are counted for each counting area. Large discrepancies exist in both the cumulative (absolute model ages) and relative plots for the two different size ranges of the same counting areas. The results indicate that dating planetary surfaces using small crater populations is highly unreliable because the contamination of secondaries may invalidate the results of small crater counts. A comparison of the size-frequency distributions of the small crater populations and impact ejected boulders around fresh lunar craters shows the same upturn as typical martian secondaries, which supports the argument that secondaries dominate the small crater populations on the Moon and Mars. Also, the size-frequency distributions of small rayed lunar and martian craters of probable primary origin are similar to that of the Population 2 craters on the inner Solar System bodies post-dating Late Heavy Bombardment. Dating planetary surfaces using the small crater populations requires the separation of primaries from secondaries which is extremely difficult. The results also show that other factors, such as different target properties and the subjective identification of impact craters by different crater counters, may also affect crater counting results. We suggest that dating planetary surfaces using small crater populations should be with highly cautious.

  5. RELATIVE AND ABSOLUTE DENSITY ESTIMATES OF LAND PLANARIANS (PLATYHELMINTHES, TRICLADIDA IN URBAN RAINFOREST PATCHES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    FERNANDO CARBAYO

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Land planarians (Platyhelminthes are likely important components of the soil cryptofauna, although relevant aspects of their ecology such as their density remain largely unstudied. We investigated absolute and relative densities of flatworms in three patches of secondary Brazilian Atlantic rainforest in an urban environment. Two methods of sampling were carried out, one consisting of 90 hours of active search in delimited plots covering 6,000 m² over a year, and the other consisting of leaf litter extraction from a 60 m² soil area, totaling 480-600 l leaf litter. We found 288 specimens of 16 species belonging to the genera Geobia, Geoplana, Issoca, Luteostriata, Obama, Paraba, Pasipha, Rhynchodemus, Xerapoa, and the exotic species Bipalium kewense and Dolichoplana striata. Specimens up to 10 mm long were mostly sampled only with the leaf litter extraction method. Absolute densities, calculated from data obtained with leaf litter extraction, ranged between 1.25 and 2.10 individuals m-2. These values are 30 to 161 times higher than relative densities, calculated from data obtained by active search. Since most common sampling method used in land planarian studies on species composition and faunal inventories is active search for a few hours in a locality, our results suggest that small species might be overlooked. It remains to be tested whether similar densities of this cryptofauna are also found in primary forests.

  6. Absolute probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes to North Atlantic right whales in Roseway Basin, Scotian Shelf.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Hoop, Julie M; Vanderlaan, Angelia S M; Taggart, Christopher T

    2012-10-01

    Vessel strikes are the primary source of known mortality for the endangered North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis). Multi-institutional efforts to reduce mortality associated with vessel strikes include vessel-routing amendments such as the International Maritime Organization voluntary "area to be avoided" (ATBA) in the Roseway Basin right whale feeding habitat on the southwestern Scotian Shelf. Though relative probabilities of lethal vessel strikes have been estimated and published, absolute probabilities remain unknown. We used a modeling approach to determine the regional effect of the ATBA, by estimating reductions in the expected number of lethal vessel strikes. This analysis differs from others in that it explicitly includes a spatiotemporal analysis of real-time transits of vessels through a population of simulated, swimming right whales. Combining automatic identification system (AIS) vessel navigation data and an observationally based whale movement model allowed us to determine the spatial and temporal intersection of vessels and whales, from which various probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes are derived. We estimate one lethal vessel strike every 0.775-2.07 years prior to ATBA implementation, consistent with and more constrained than previous estimates of every 2-16 years. Following implementation, a lethal vessel strike is expected every 41 years. When whale abundance is held constant across years, we estimate that voluntary vessel compliance with the ATBA results in an 82% reduction in the per capita rate of lethal strikes; very similar to a previously published estimate of 82% reduction in the relative risk of a lethal vessel strike. The models we developed can inform decision-making and policy design, based on their ability to provide absolute, population-corrected, time-varying estimates of lethal vessel strikes, and they are easily transported to other regions and situations.

  7. An Age Estimation Method to Panoramic Radiographs from Indonesian Individuals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arya Yudhi Wijaya

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Dental features can be considered as the best candidate feature for post-mortem identification. If ante-mortem data is unavailable, then forensic experts are needed for reducing the search space by creating post-mortem dental profiling. Age is one of important factors in dental profiling. Manual inspection of dental radiographs suffers from two drawbaks, i.e., intraobserver error and interobserver error. This paper proposed a semi-automatic system for age estimation. There are two phases in developing the proposed system, i.e., the modeling phase and the estimation phase. The modeling phase is the stage for deriving an estimation formula based on known data. In this paper, we use data taken from Javanese people. The estimation phase include the process of defining a Region of Interest (ROI, automatic length computation, and age estimation based on the derived modeling formula. Our experiments showed a promising result, i.e., an average absolute error of 5.2 years.

  8. The switch from relative to absolute phase centre variation model and its impact on coordinate estimates within local engineering networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Junbo; Guo, Jiming

    2008-12-01

    The IGS announced the switch from a relative to an absolute phase centre variation model on 5 October 2006 after detailed discussions concerning how the model switch would benefit global and regional networks, as well as the IGS products. However, there was no dedicated study on the major concern of this paper - the influence of the model switch on local engineering networks, especially on coordinate estimates, which are key factors in engineering constructions. The data set considered in this paper is a bridge control network with baselines ranging in length from 200 to 7000 metres, utilising different GPS antenna types. In addition, high correlations between coordinate estimates, antenna phase centre variations and troposphere parameters are also considered. The results demonstrate that the antenna model switch does not produce significant differences to coordinate estimates within local engineering networks.

  9. Bayesian calibration for forensic age estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrante, Luigi; Skrami, Edlira; Gesuita, Rosaria; Cameriere, Roberto

    2015-05-10

    Forensic medicine is increasingly called upon to assess the age of individuals. Forensic age estimation is mostly required in relation to illegal immigration and identification of bodies or skeletal remains. A variety of age estimation methods are based on dental samples and use of regression models, where the age of an individual is predicted by morphological tooth changes that take place over time. From the medico-legal point of view, regression models, with age as the dependent random variable entail that age tends to be overestimated in the young and underestimated in the old. To overcome this bias, we describe a new full Bayesian calibration method (asymmetric Laplace Bayesian calibration) for forensic age estimation that uses asymmetric Laplace distribution as the probability model. The method was compared with three existing approaches (two Bayesian and a classical method) using simulated data. Although its accuracy was comparable with that of the other methods, the asymmetric Laplace Bayesian calibration appears to be significantly more reliable and robust in case of misspecification of the probability model. The proposed method was also applied to a real dataset of values of the pulp chamber of the right lower premolar measured on x-ray scans of individuals of known age. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  10. Practical calculation method to estimate the absolute boron concentration in tissues using 18F-FBPA PET.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watabe, Tadashi; Hanaoka, Kohei; Naka, Sadahiro; Kanai, Yasukazu; Ikeda, Hayato; Aoki, Masanao; Shimosegawa, Eku; Kirihata, Mitsunori; Hatazawa, Jun

    2017-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to establish a practical method to estimate the absolute boron concentrations in the tissues based on the standardized uptake values (SUVs) after administration of 4-borono-phenylalanine (BPA) using 4-borono-2- 18 F-fluoro-phenylalanine ( 18 F-FBPA) PET. Rat xenograft models of C6 glioma (n = 7, body weight 241 ± 28.0 g) were used for the study. PET was performed 60 min after intravenous injection of 18 F-FBPA (30.5 ± 0.7 MBq). After the PET scanning, BPA-fructose (167.3 ± 18.65 mg/kg) was administered by slow intravenous injection to the same subjects. The rats were killed 60 min after the BPA injection and tissue samples were collected from the major organs and tumors. The absolute boron concentrations (unit: ppm) in the samples were measured by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry (ICP-OES). The boron concentrations in the tissues/tumors were also estimated from the 18 F-FBPA PET images using the following formula: estimated absolute boron concentration (ppm) = 0.0478 × [BPA dose (mg/kg)] × SUV. The measured absolute boron concentrations (mBC) by ICP-OES and the estimated boron concentrations (eBC) from the PET images were compared. The percent difference between the mBC and eBC calculated based on the SUV max was -5.2 ± 21.1% for the blood, -9.4 ± 22.3% for the brain, 1.6 ± 21.3% for the liver, -14.3 ± 16.8% for the spleen, -9.5 ± 27.5% for the pancreas, and 3.4 ± 43.2% for the tumor. Relatively large underestimation was observed for the lung (-48.4 ± 16.2%), small intestine (-37.8 ± 19.3%) and large intestine (-33.9 ± 11.0%), due to the partial volume effect arising from the air or feces contained in these organs. In contrast, relatively large overestimation was observed for the kidney (34.3 ± 29.3%), due to the influence of the high uptake in urine. The absolute boron concentrations in tissues/tumors can be estimated from the SUVs on 18 F-FBPA PET using a

  11. Estimation of PGR Induced Absolute Gravity Changes at Greenland GNET Stations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Emil; Strykowski, Gabriel; Forsberg, René

    2011-01-01

    An important subject in the climate debate is the study of the major ice sheets mass balance. Knowledge of the mass balance provides understanding of changes in the relative sea-level (RSL). Several methods are used for mass balance studies but they are associated with large uncertainties. One...... reason for the uncertainty is the presence of the postglacial rebound (PGR) signal in the geodetic data used for mass balance estimates. Estimates of the PGR signal can be obtained by modelling and then being subtracted from the data to eliminate its influence. In this study, the PGR gravity signal...

  12. Estimation of an absolute flood damage curve based on an Austrian case study under a dam breach scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prettenthaler, F.; Amrusch, P.; Habsburg-Lothringen, C.

    2010-04-01

    To date, in Austria no empirical assessment of absolute damage curves has been realized on the basis of detailed information on flooded buildings due to a dam breach, presumably because of the lack of data. This paper tries to fill this gap by estimating an absolute flood-damage curve, based on data of a recent flood event in Austria in 2006. First, a concise analysis of the case study area is conducted, i.e., the maximum damage potential is identified by using raster-based GIS. Thereafter, previous literature findings on existing flood-damage functions are considered in order to determine a volume-water damage function that can be used for further flood damage assessment. Finally, the flood damage function is cross validated and applied in prediction of damage potential in the study area. For future development of the estimated flood damage curve, and to aid more general use, we propose verification against field data on damage caused by natural waves in rivers.

  13. Estimating absolute sea level variations by combining GNSS and Tide gauge data

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Bos, M.S.; Fernandes, R.M.S; Vethamony, P.; Mehra, P.

    . Using the GNSS properties of two inland stations, Hyderabad and Bangalore, as a proxy of the noise observed at the coastal stations, we conclude that around 5 years of observations are required to estimate the vertical land motion with an accuracy...

  14. Impact of age on glomerular filtration estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douville, Pierre; Martel, Ariane R; Talbot, Jean; Desmeules, Simon; Langlois, Serge; Agharazii, Mohsen

    2009-01-01

    Glomerular filtration decreases progressively with age in adults. Predictive equation should have proper modelling to adequately account for normal senescence. Corrected 24-h creatinine clearances (CCLs) were measured in a cohort of 773 outpatients from 18 to 90 years old. Multiple linear regression was used to model the effect of age on glomerular filtration. Comparisons were made with the simplified MDRD and the MAYO equations. Impact of the derived equation was tested in a second cohort of 7551 patients with normal serum creatinine. While all equations show declining function with age, our results suggest that the GFR reduction is progressive after the age of 30 and continue to decline steadily after the age of 60. This leads to a convex curve in the multiple regression analysis that is best fitted by an equation including the quadratic term (age(2)). In contrast, the MDRD equation produces a faster decrease in early adulthood and a flatter curve after the age of 60 while the MAYO equation produces a more linear effect. MDRD results in the normal range are lower than those estimated by the MAYO equation. These equations, as applied on an independent cohort of 7551 normal outpatients from 18 to 102 years, produce different profile of evolution of GFR with age. Inclusion of a quadratic term for age in the formula estimating GFR results in better modelling of the natural decline of renal function associated with ageing. Furthermore, as GFR steadily declines after the age of 30, a single cut-off value of GFR normality for all ages leads to underdiagnosis of young adults and over diagnosis of elderly individuals. Guidelines should take into account the observed reduction of kidney function with age in normal population for optimal evaluation of eGFR.

  15. Epigenetic estimation of age in humpback whales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polanowski, Andrea M; Robbins, Jooke; Chandler, David; Jarman, Simon N

    2014-09-01

    Age is a fundamental aspect of animal ecology, but is difficult to determine in many species. Humpback whales exemplify this as they have a lifespan comparable to humans, mature sexually as early as 4 years and have no reliable visual age indicators after their first year. Current methods for estimating humpback age cannot be applied to all individuals and populations. Assays for human age have recently been developed based on age-induced changes in DNA methylation of specific genes. We used information on age-associated DNA methylation in human and mouse genes to identify homologous gene regions in humpbacks. Humpback skin samples were obtained from individuals with a known year of birth and employed to calibrate relationships between cytosine methylation and age. Seven of 37 cytosines assayed for methylation level in humpback skin had significant age-related profiles. The three most age-informative cytosine markers were selected for a humpback epigenetic age assay. The assay has an R(2) of 0.787 (P = 3.04e-16) and predicts age from skin samples with a standard deviation of 2.991 years. The epigenetic method correctly determined which of parent-offspring pairs is the parent in more than 93% of cases. To demonstrate the potential of this technique, we constructed the first modern age profile of humpback whales off eastern Australia and compared the results to population structure 5 decades earlier. This is the first epigenetic age estimation method for a wild animal species and the approach we took for developing it can be applied to many other nonmodel organisms. © 2014 The Authors. Molecular Ecology Resources Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Bayesian phylogenetic estimation of fossil ages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drummond, Alexei J; Stadler, Tanja

    2016-07-19

    Recent advances have allowed for both morphological fossil evidence and molecular sequences to be integrated into a single combined inference of divergence dates under the rule of Bayesian probability. In particular, the fossilized birth-death tree prior and the Lewis-Mk model of discrete morphological evolution allow for the estimation of both divergence times and phylogenetic relationships between fossil and extant taxa. We exploit this statistical framework to investigate the internal consistency of these models by producing phylogenetic estimates of the age of each fossil in turn, within two rich and well-characterized datasets of fossil and extant species (penguins and canids). We find that the estimation accuracy of fossil ages is generally high with credible intervals seldom excluding the true age and median relative error in the two datasets of 5.7% and 13.2%, respectively. The median relative standard error (RSD) was 9.2% and 7.2%, respectively, suggesting good precision, although with some outliers. In fact, in the two datasets we analyse, the phylogenetic estimate of fossil age is on average less than 2 Myr from the mid-point age of the geological strata from which it was excavated. The high level of internal consistency found in our analyses suggests that the Bayesian statistical model employed is an adequate fit for both the geological and morphological data, and provides evidence from real data that the framework used can accurately model the evolution of discrete morphological traits coded from fossil and extant taxa. We anticipate that this approach will have diverse applications beyond divergence time dating, including dating fossils that are temporally unconstrained, testing of the 'morphological clock', and for uncovering potential model misspecification and/or data errors when controversial phylogenetic hypotheses are obtained based on combined divergence dating analyses.This article is part of the themed issue 'Dating species divergences using

  17. Bayesian phylogenetic estimation of fossil ages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drummond, Alexei J.; Stadler, Tanja

    2016-01-01

    Recent advances have allowed for both morphological fossil evidence and molecular sequences to be integrated into a single combined inference of divergence dates under the rule of Bayesian probability. In particular, the fossilized birth–death tree prior and the Lewis-Mk model of discrete morphological evolution allow for the estimation of both divergence times and phylogenetic relationships between fossil and extant taxa. We exploit this statistical framework to investigate the internal consistency of these models by producing phylogenetic estimates of the age of each fossil in turn, within two rich and well-characterized datasets of fossil and extant species (penguins and canids). We find that the estimation accuracy of fossil ages is generally high with credible intervals seldom excluding the true age and median relative error in the two datasets of 5.7% and 13.2%, respectively. The median relative standard error (RSD) was 9.2% and 7.2%, respectively, suggesting good precision, although with some outliers. In fact, in the two datasets we analyse, the phylogenetic estimate of fossil age is on average less than 2 Myr from the mid-point age of the geological strata from which it was excavated. The high level of internal consistency found in our analyses suggests that the Bayesian statistical model employed is an adequate fit for both the geological and morphological data, and provides evidence from real data that the framework used can accurately model the evolution of discrete morphological traits coded from fossil and extant taxa. We anticipate that this approach will have diverse applications beyond divergence time dating, including dating fossils that are temporally unconstrained, testing of the ‘morphological clock', and for uncovering potential model misspecification and/or data errors when controversial phylogenetic hypotheses are obtained based on combined divergence dating analyses. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Dating species divergences

  18. Uranium isotope ratios of Muonionalusta troilite and complications for the absolute age of the IVA iron meteorite core

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brennecka, Gregory A.; Amelin, Yuri; Kleine, Thorsten

    2018-05-01

    The crystallization ages of planetary crustal material (given by basaltic meteorites) and planetary cores (given by iron meteorites) provide fiducial marks for the progress of planetary formation, and thus, the absolute ages of these objects fundamentally direct our knowledge and understanding of planet formation and evolution. The lone precise absolute age of planetary core material was previously obtained on troilite inclusions from the IVA iron meteorite Muonionalusta. This previously reported Pb-Pb age of 4565.3 ± 0.1 Ma-assuming a 238U/235U =137.88-only post-dated the start of the Solar System by approximately 2-3 million years, and mandated fast cooling of planetary core material. Since an accurate Pb-Pb age requires a known 238U/235U of the sample, we have measured both 238U/235U and Pb isotopic compositions of troilite inclusions from Muonionalusta. The measured 238U/235U of the samples range from ∼137.84 to as low as ∼137.22, however based on Pb and U systematics, terrestrial contamination appears pervasive and has affected samples to various extents for Pb and U. The cause of the relative 235U excess in one sample does not appear to be from terrestrial contamination or the decay of short-lived 247Cm, but is more likely from fractionation of U isotopes during metal-silicate separation during core formation, exacerbated by the extreme U depletion in the planetary core. Due to limited Pb isotopic variation and terrestrial disturbance, no samples of this study produced useful age information; however the clear divergence from the previously assumed 238U/235U of any troilite in Muonionalusta introduces substantial uncertainty to the previously reported absolute age of the sample without knowledge of the 238U/235U of the sample. Uncertainties associated with U isotope heterogeneity do not allow for definition of a robust age of solidification and cooling for the IVA core. However, one sample of this work-paired with previous work using short

  19. Towards an absolute chronology for the Aegean iron age: new radiocarbon dates from Lefkandi, Kalapodi and Corinth.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael B Toffolo

    Full Text Available The relative chronology of the Aegean Iron Age is robust. It is based on minute stylistic changes in the Submycenaean, Protogeometric and Geometric styles and their sub-phases. Yet, the absolute chronology of the time-span between the final stages of Late Helladic IIIC in the late second millennium BCE and the archaic colonization of Italy and Sicily toward the end of the 8(th century BCE lacks archaeological contexts that can be directly related to events carrying absolute dates mentioned in Egyptian/Near Eastern historical sources, or to well-dated Egyptian/Near Eastern rulers. The small number of radiocarbon dates available for this time span is not sufficient to establish an absolute chronological sequence. Here we present a new set of short-lived radiocarbon dates from the sites of Lefkandi, Kalapodi and Corinth in Greece. We focus on the crucial transition from the Submycenaean to the Protogeometric periods. This transition is placed in the late 11(th century BCE according to the Conventional Aegean Chronology and in the late 12(th century BCE according to the High Aegean Chronology. Our results place it in the second half of the 11(th century BCE.

  20. Hydraulic head estimation at unobserved locations: Approximating the distribution of the absolute error based on geologic interpretations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langousis, Andreas; Kaleris, Vassilios; Xeygeni, Vagia; Magkou, Foteini

    2017-04-01

    Assessing the availability of groundwater reserves at a regional level, requires accurate and robust hydraulic head estimation at multiple locations of an aquifer. To that extent, one needs groundwater observation networks that can provide sufficient information to estimate the hydraulic head at unobserved locations. The density of such networks is largely influenced by the spatial distribution of the hydraulic conductivity in the aquifer, and it is usually determined through trial-and-error, by solving the groundwater flow based on a properly selected set of alternative but physically plausible geologic structures. In this work, we use: 1) dimensional analysis, and b) a pulse-based stochastic model for simulation of synthetic aquifer structures, to calculate the distribution of the absolute error in hydraulic head estimation as a function of the standardized distance from the nearest measuring locations. The resulting distributions are proved to encompass all possible small-scale structural dependencies, exhibiting characteristics (bounds, multi-modal features etc.) that can be explained using simple geometric arguments. The obtained results are promising, pointing towards the direction of establishing design criteria based on large-scale geologic maps.

  1. DNA methylation markers in combination with skeletal and dental ages to improve age estimation in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Lei; Jiang, Fan; Ouyang, Fengxiu; Zhang, Jun; Wang, Zhimin; Shen, Xiaoming

    2018-03-01

    Age estimation is critical in forensic science, in competitive sports and games and in other age-related fields, but the current methods are suboptimal. The combination of age-associated DNA methylation markers with skeletal age (SA) and dental age (DA) may improve the accuracy and precision of age estimation, but no study has examined this topic. In the current study, we measured SA (GP, TW3-RUS, and TW3-Carpal methods) and DA (Demirjian and Willems methods) by X-ray examination in 124 Chinese children (78 boys and 46 girls) aged 6-15 years. To identify age-associated CpG sites, we analyzed methylome-wide DNA methylation profiling by using the Illumina HumanMethylation450 BeadChip system in 48 randomly selected children. Five CpG sites were identified as associated with chronologic age (CA), with an absolute value of Pearson's correlation coefficient (r)>0.5 (page-associated CpG sites was performed using droplet digital PCR techniques in all 124 children. After validation, four CpG sites for boys and five CpG sites for girls were further adopted to build the age estimation model with SA and DA using multivariate linear stepwise regressions. These CpG sites were located at 4 known genes: DDO, PRPH2, DHX8, and ITGA2B and at one unknown gene with the Illumina ID number of 22398226. The accuracy of age estimation methods was compared according to the mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE). The best single measure for SA was the TW3-RUS method (MAE=0.69years, RMSE=0.95years) in boys, and the GP method (MAE=0.74years, RMSE=0.94years) in girls. For DA, the Willems method was the best single measure for both boys (MAE=0.63years, RMSE=0.78years) and girls (MAE=0.54years, RMSE=0.68years). The models that incorporated SA and DA with the methylation levels of age-associated CpG sites provided the highest accuracy of age estimation in both boys (MAE=0.47years, R 2 =0.886) and girls (MAE=0.33years, R 2 =0.941). Cross validation of the results confirmed the

  2. Optimal dental age estimation practice in United Arab Emirates' children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altalie, Salem; Thevissen, Patrick; Fieuws, Steffen; Willems, Guy

    2014-03-01

    The aim of the study was to detect whether the Willems model, developed on a Belgian reference sample, can be used for age estimations in United Arab Emirates (UAE) children. Furthermore, it was verified that if added third molars development information in children provided more accurate age predictions. On 1900 panoramic radiographs, the development of left mandibular permanent teeth (PT) and third molars (TM) was registered according the Demirjian and the Kohler technique, respectively. The PT data were used to verify the Willems model and to develop a UAE model and to verify it. Multiple regression models with PT, TM, and PT + TM scores as independent and age as dependent factor were developed. Comparing the verified Willems- and the UAE model revealed differences in mean error of -0.01 year, mean absolute error of 0.01 year and root mean squared error of 0.90 year. Neglectable overall decrease in RMSE was detected combining PM and TM developmental information. © 2013 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  3. Is an absolute level of cortical beta suppression required for proper movement? Magnetoencephalographic evidence from healthy aging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heinrichs-Graham, Elizabeth; Wilson, Tony W

    2016-07-01

    Previous research has connected a specific pattern of beta oscillatory activity to proper motor execution, but no study to date has directly examined how resting beta levels affect motor-related beta oscillatory activity in the motor cortex. Understanding this relationship is imperative to determining the basic mechanisms of motor control, as well as the impact of pathological beta oscillations on movement execution. In the current study, we used magnetoencephalography (MEG) and a complex movement paradigm to quantify resting beta activity and movement-related beta oscillations in the context of healthy aging. We chose healthy aging as a model because preliminary evidence suggests that beta activity is elevated in older adults, and thus by examining older and younger adults we were able to naturally vary resting beta levels. To this end, healthy younger and older participants were recorded during motor performance and at rest. Using beamforming, we imaged the peri-movement beta event-related desynchronization (ERD) and extracted virtual sensors from the peak voxels, which enabled absolute and relative beta power to be assessed. Interestingly, absolute beta power during the pre-movement baseline was much stronger in older relative to younger adults, and older adults also exhibited proportionally large beta desynchronization (ERD) responses during motor planning and execution compared to younger adults. Crucially, we found a significant relationship between spontaneous (resting) beta power and beta ERD magnitude in both primary motor cortices, above and beyond the effects of age. A similar link was found between beta ERD magnitude and movement duration. These findings suggest a direct linkage between beta reduction during movement and spontaneous activity in the motor cortex, such that as spontaneous beta power increases, a greater reduction in beta activity is required to execute movement. We propose that, on an individual level, the primary motor cortices have an

  4. Using Dental Age to Estimate Chronological Age in Czech Children Aged 3–18 Years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristina Ginzelová

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The Demirjian methods to determine dental age are based on analysis of orthopantograms. The dental age estimation is based on establishing the tooth development stages. The purpose of this study was to assess the accuracy of estimation of dental age by Demirjian in the use of all of his four methods. 505 Czech healthy boys and girls aged 3 to 18 years were examined radiographically at the Department of Stomatology, Second Faculty of Medicine, Charles University in Prague. It was mentioned the factors of underlying diseases influence the accuracy of the dental age estimation. For statistical evaluation, descriptive statistics was used to compare deviations of the mean values of chronological and dental age in each age group. The resulting difference between dental age and chronological age is not significant in both genders only when using both Demirjian 7-teeth methods of 1973 and 1976. Therefore these may be most appropriately used for forensic age estimation. There are shown standard deviation differences in different countries. Demirjian’s original 7-teeth method from 1973 and Demirjian’s revised 4-teeth method from 1976 appear to be the best methods for calculating the dental age of healthy Czech children of both genders.

  5. Estimating population age structure using otolith morphometrics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Doering-Arjes, P.; Cardinale, M.; Mosegaard, Henrik

    2008-01-01

    Traditional age reading is a rather subjective method that lacks true reproducibility, producing ageing error that propagates up to stock assessment. One alternative is represented by the use of otolith morphometrics as a predictor of age. An important issue with such a method is that it requires...... known-age fish individuals. Here we used known-age Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) from the Faroe Bank and Faroe Plateau stocks. Cod populations usually show quite large variation in growth rates and otolith shape. We showed that including otolith morphometrics into ageing processes has the potential...... populations. The intercalibration method was successful but generalization from one stock to another remains problematic. The development of an otolith growth model is needed for generalization if an operational method for different populations is required in the future....

  6. Applying Deep Learning in Medical Images: The Case of Bone Age Estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jang Hyung; Kim, Kwang Gi

    2018-01-01

    A diagnostic need often arises to estimate bone age from X-ray images of the hand of a subject during the growth period. Together with measured physical height, such information may be used as indicators for the height growth prognosis of the subject. We present a way to apply the deep learning technique to medical image analysis using hand bone age estimation as an example. Age estimation was formulated as a regression problem with hand X-ray images as input and estimated age as output. A set of hand X-ray images was used to form a training set with which a regression model was trained. An image preprocessing procedure is described which reduces image variations across data instances that are unrelated to age-wise variation. The use of Caffe, a deep learning tool is demonstrated. A rather simple deep learning network was adopted and trained for tutorial purpose. A test set distinct from the training set was formed to assess the validity of the approach. The measured mean absolute difference value was 18.9 months, and the concordance correlation coefficient was 0.78. It is shown that the proposed deep learning-based neural network can be used to estimate a subject's age from hand X-ray images, which eliminates the need for tedious atlas look-ups in clinical environments and should improve the time and cost efficiency of the estimation process.

  7. Accuracy of dental age estimation charts: Schour and Massler, Ubelaker and the London Atlas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    AlQahtani, S J; Hector, M P; Liversidge, H M

    2014-05-01

    Dental age estimation charts are frequently used to assess maturity and estimate age. The aim of this study was to assess the accuracy of estimating age of three dental development charts (Schour and Massler, Ubelaker, and the London Atlas). The test sample was skeletal remains and dental radiographs of known-age individuals (N = 1,506, prenatal to 23.94 years). Dental age was estimated using charts of Schour and Massler, Ubelaker, and The London Atlas. Dental and chronological ages were compared using a paired t-test for the three methods. The absolute mean difference between dental and chronological age was calculated. Results show that all three methods under-estimated age but the London Atlas performed better than Schour and Massler and Ubelaker in all measures. The mean difference for Schour and Massler and Ubelaker was -0.76 and -0.80 years (SD 1.27 year, N = 1,227) respectively and for the London Atlas was -0.10 year (SD 0.97 year, N = 1,429). Further analysis by age category showed similar accuracy for all three methods for individuals younger than 1 year. For ages 1-18, the mean difference between dental and chronological ages was significant (P  0.05) for the London Atlas for most age categories. These findings show that the London Atlas performs better than Schour and Massler and Ubelaker and represents a substantial improvement in accuracy of dental age estimation from developing teeth. Copyright © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. The circles of life: age at death estimation in burnt teeth through tooth cementum annulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira-Santos, Inês; Gouveia, Márcia; Cunha, Eugénia; Gonçalves, David

    2017-03-01

    Age at death estimation in burnt human remains is problematic due to the severe heat-induced modifications that may affect the skeleton after a burning event. The objective of this paper was to assess if cementochronology, which focuses on the cementum incremental lines, is a reliable method of age estimation in burnt remains. Besides the classical approach based on the counting of incremental lines, another approach based on the extrapolation of incremental lines taking into account the cement layer thickness and the incremental line thickness was investigated. A comparison of the performance of the two techniques was carried out on a sample of 60 identified monoradicular teeth that were recently extracted at dentist offices and then experimentally burnt at two maximum temperatures (400 and 900 °C). Micrographs of cross-sections of the roots were taken via an optical microscope with magnification of ×100, ×200 and ×400. Incremental line counting and measurements were carried out with the ImageJ software. Age estimation based on incremental line counting in burnt teeth had no significant correlation with chronological age (p = 0.244 to 0.914) and led to large absolute mean errors (19 to 21 years). In contrast, age estimation based on the extrapolation approach showed a significant correlation with known age (p = 0.449 to 0.484). In addition, the mean absolute error of the latter was much smaller (10 to 14 years). The reason behind this discrepancy is the heat-induced dimensional changes of incremental lines that affect their visibility and individualization thus complicating line counting. Our results indicated that incremental lines extrapolation is successful at solving this problem and that the resulting age estimation is much more reliable.

  9. Age estimation in older adults: Use of pulp/tooth ratios calculated from tooth sections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Ortenzio, Lori; Prowse, Tracy; Inskip, Michael; Kahlon, Bonnie; Brickley, Megan

    2018-03-01

    Accurate age estimates are foundational for bioarchaeological research, yet the ability to accurately age older adult skeletons remains elusive. This study uses a new version of pulp/tooth area calculations to investigate chronological age of older archaeological individuals. Pulp/tooth area ratios were calculated on modern control teeth (n = 10) that were first radiographed and then sectioned for comparative analysis. Pulp/tooth area ratios were determined on sectioned teeth using ImageJ software for: (a) modern individuals of known age (n = 26); (b) individuals from Belleville, Ontario, Canada (1821-1874) with documented age (n = 50); and (c) Belleville individuals with skeletally estimated age (n = 122). Calculations from tooth sections on modern teeth (n = 10) resulted in a mean absolute error (MAE) of ±3.9 years, whereas the radiographic method for the same teeth had an MAE of ±14.45 years. Results indicate that sectioned pulp/tooth area ratios are a significant predictor of chronological age (p age estimations between modern and archaeological individuals, or with respect to tooth type, sex, or intra/inter-observer estimations. This study provides a new more accurate method for estimating age-at-death, particularly for individuals in the 50+ age category. Sectioning the teeth and directly measuring exposed pulp chambers results in age estimations that were within ±4.15 years for both modern and archaeological individuals, thus presenting a method that will enhance the ability to age older individuals. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  10. The (mis)use of adult age estimates in osteology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buckberry, Jo

    2015-01-01

    Adult age-at-death is presented in a number of different ways by anthropologists. Ordinal categories predominate in osteoarchaeology, but do not reflect individual variation in ageing, with too many adults being classified as "middle adults". In addition, mean ages (derived from reference samples) are overly-relied upon when developing and testing methods. In both cases, "age mimicry" is not adequately accounted for. To highlight the many inherent biases created when developing, testing and applying age-estimation methods without fully considering the impact of "age mimicry" and individual variation. The paper draws on previously published research (Web of Science, Pub Med, Google Scholar) on age estimation methods and their use in anthropology. There is a lack of consistency in the methods used to estimate age and for the mode of combining them. Ordinal categories are frequently used in osteoarchaeology, whereas forensic anthropologists are more likely to produce case-specific age ranges. Mean ages reflect the age structure of reference samples and should not be used to estimate age for individuals from populations with a different age-at-death structure. Individual-specific age ranges and/or probability densities should be used to report individual age. Further research should be undertaken on how to create unbiased, combined method age estimates.

  11. DXAGE: A New Method for Age at Death Estimation Based on Femoral Bone Mineral Density and Artificial Neural Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navega, David; Coelho, João d'Oliveira; Cunha, Eugénia; Curate, Francisco

    2018-03-01

    Age at death estimation in adult skeletons is hampered, among others, by the unremarkable correlation of bone estimators with chronological age, implementation of inappropriate statistical techniques, observer error, and skeletal incompleteness or destruction. Therefore, it is beneficial to consider alternative methods to assess age at death in adult skeletons. The decrease in bone mineral density with age was explored to generate a method to assess age at death in human remains. A connectionist computational approach, artificial neural networks, was employed to model femur densitometry data gathered in 100 female individuals from the Coimbra Identified Skeletal Collection. Bone mineral density declines consistently with age and the method performs appropriately, with mean absolute differences between known and predicted age ranging from 9.19 to 13.49 years. The proposed method-DXAGE-was implemented online to streamline age estimation. This preliminary study highlights the value of densitometry to assess age at death in human remains. © 2017 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  12. Clinical significance of bone age estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heinrich, U.E.

    1986-01-01

    Skeletal development is an important maturity indicator during childhood. In clinical practice determination of skeletal age is helpful for the diagnosis of disorders of growth and development. Most hormones have specific effects on skeletal maturation. Thus, different disease states (growth disorders, disorders of pubertal development, chornic disorders of the bowels, kidneys, heart etc.) are characterized by retardation or acceleration of skeletal maturation. Therapeutic effects as well as side effects of hormones can be monitored by skeletal age determination. Typical disharmonic patterns in the appearance of bone centres of hand and wrist have been found in certain disorders of development. (orig.) [de

  13. Combining wrist age and third molars in forensic age estimation: how to calculate the joint age estimate and its error rate in age diagnostics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelbrich, Bianca; Frerking, Carolin; Weiss, Sandra; Schwerdt, Sebastian; Stellzig-Eisenhauer, Angelika; Tausche, Eve; Gelbrich, Götz

    2015-01-01

    Forensic age estimation in living adolescents is based on several methods, e.g. the assessment of skeletal and dental maturation. Combination of several methods is mandatory, since age estimates from a single method are too imprecise due to biological variability. The correlation of the errors of the methods being combined must be known to calculate the precision of combined age estimates. To examine the correlation of the errors of the hand and the third molar method and to demonstrate how to calculate the combined age estimate. Clinical routine radiographs of the hand and dental panoramic images of 383 patients (aged 7.8-19.1 years, 56% female) were assessed. Lack of correlation (r = -0.024, 95% CI = -0.124 to + 0.076, p = 0.64) allows calculating the combined age estimate as the weighted average of the estimates from hand bones and third molars. Combination improved the standard deviations of errors (hand = 0.97, teeth = 1.35 years) to 0.79 years. Uncorrelated errors of the age estimates obtained from both methods allow straightforward determination of the common estimate and its variance. This is also possible when reference data for the hand and the third molar method are established independently from each other, using different samples.

  14. Western Saudi adolescent age estimation utilising third molar development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alshihri, Amin M; Kruger, Estie; Tennant, Marc

    2014-07-01

    The aim of this study was to establish reference data on third molar morphology/development for age estimation in Western Saudi adolescents, between ages 14 and 23 years of old. The orthopantomograms of 130 individuals (males and females), were examined, and the stage of third molar development were evaluated. Mean ages, standard deviations, and percentile distributions are presented for each stage of development. The mean estimated age for all participants (n = 130) was 219.7 months, and this differed significantly (P age (226.5 months). Deviations of predicted age from real age showed 28.5% of all participants had their age estimated within 1 year (±12 months) of their chronological age. Most (43%) had their age underestimated by more than 12 months and the remaining 28.5% had their age overestimated by more than 12 months of their chronological age. Differences in left-right symmetry information of third molars were detected and were higher in the maxilla (92%) than in the mandible (82%). For all molars reaching stage "H" most individuals (males and females) were over the age 18 years of old. Males reach the developmental stages earlier than females. Third molar tooth development can be reliably used to generate mean age and the estimated age range for an individual of unknown chronological age. Further studies with large populations are needed for better statistical results.

  15. [Chronological age estimation based on dental panoramic radiography].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tóth, Zsuzsanna Olga; Udvar, Orsolya; Angyal, János

    2014-09-01

    Determination of the dental age is a valuable tool in planning of orthodontic treatment and could be used to estimate the chronological age of unidentified human beings. Among the various age estimation methods one of the most accepted one is the Demirjian method, which has already been modified to selected Hungarian population. In this study we have evaluated the association between the dental age determined by panoramic radiography and the chronological age. 199 panoramic radiographs taken from persons between the ages of 2,8 and 20,3 years were selected to the study. The dental ages of persons were estimated either with the Demirjian or the modified Demirjian method adapted to Hungarian population and the results were compared to the chronological ages in selected age groups. Furthermore the angle of the mandible was registered on both sides with an image analysing software. Statistical analysis of data was performed using SPSS software. Our results show that mean values of mandibular angles exhibited a decreasing trend with age. The two age determination methods resulted in different values. Between 3 and 9 years and the age group between 15 and 17,3 years the adapted Hungarian method proved to be more accurate than the Demirjian method. We have established a mathematical function between the two methods. We could conclude that the panoramic radiography based dental age calculation is a reliable method to estimate the chronological age, but the utility of gonial angle has not been proved.

  16. Estimation of absolute microglial cell numbers in mouse fascia dentata using unbiased and efficient stereological cell counting principles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wirenfeldt, Martin; Dalmau, Ishar; Finsen, Bente

    2003-01-01

    Stereology offers a set of unbiased principles to obtain precise estimates of total cell numbers in a defined region. In terms of microglia, which in the traumatized and diseased CNS is an extremely dynamic cell population, the strength of stereology is that the resultant estimate is unaffected b...

  17. Utilization of bone impedance for age estimation in postmortem cases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishikawa, Noboru; Suganami, Hideki; Nishida, Atsushi; Miyamori, Daisuke; Kakiuchi, Yasuhiro; Yamada, Naotake; Wook-Cheol, Kim; Kubo, Toshikazu; Ikegaya, Hiroshi

    2015-11-01

    In the field of Forensic Medicine the number of unidentified cadavers has increased due to natural disasters and international terrorism. The age estimation is very important for identification of the victims. The degree of sagittal closure is one of such age estimation methods. However it is not widely accepted as a reliable method for age estimation. In this study, we have examined whether measuring impedance value (z-values) of the sagittal suture of the skull is related to the age in men and women and discussed the possibility to use bone impedance for age estimation. Bone impedance values increased with aging and decreased after the age of 64.5. Then we compared age estimation through the conventional visual method and the proposed bone impedance measurement technique. It is suggested that the bone impedance measuring technique may be of value to forensic science as a method of age estimation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

  18. Absolute Summ

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Alfred, Jr.

    Summ means the entirety of the multiverse. It seems clear, from the inflation theories of A. Guth and others, that the creation of many universes is plausible. We argue that Absolute cosmological ideas, not unlike those of I. Newton, may be consistent with dynamic multiverse creations. As suggested in W. Heisenberg's uncertainty principle, and with the Anthropic Principle defended by S. Hawking, et al., human consciousness, buttressed by findings of neuroscience, may have to be considered in our models. Predictability, as A. Einstein realized with Invariants and General Relativity, may be required for new ideas to be part of physics. We present here a two postulate model geared to an Absolute Summ. The seedbed of this work is part of Akhnaton's philosophy (see S. Freud, Moses and Monotheism). Most important, however, is that the structure of human consciousness, manifest in Kenya's Rift Valley 200,000 years ago as Homo sapiens, who were the culmination of the six million year co-creation process of Hominins and Nature in Africa, allows us to do the physics that we do. .

  19. Current practices by forensic anthropologists in adult skeletal age estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garvin, Heather M; Passalacqua, Nicholas V

    2012-03-01

    When determining an age estimate from adult skeletal remains, forensic anthropologists face a series of methodological choices. These decisions, such as which skeletal region to evaluate, which methods to apply, what statistical information to use, and how to combine information from multiple methods, ultimately impacts the final reported age estimate. In this study, a questionnaire was administered to 145 forensic anthropologists, documenting current trends in adult age at death estimation procedures used throughout the field. Results indicate that the Suchey-Brooks pubic symphysis method (1990) remains the most highly favored aging technique, with cranial sutures and dental wear being the least preferred, regardless of experience. The majority of respondents stated that they vary their skeletal age estimate process case-by-case and ultimately present to officials both a narrow and broad possible age range. Overall, respondents displayed a very high degree of variation in how they generate their age estimates, and indicated that experience and expertise play a large role in skeletal age estimates. © 2011 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  20. Calibration with Absolute Shrinkage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Øjelund, Henrik; Madsen, Henrik; Thyregod, Poul

    2001-01-01

    In this paper, penalized regression using the L-1 norm on the estimated parameters is proposed for chemometric je calibration. The algorithm is of the lasso type, introduced by Tibshirani in 1996 as a linear regression method with bound on the absolute length of the parameters, but a modification...

  1. Reliability of third molar development for age estimation in Gujarati population: A comparative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gandhi, Neha; Jain, Sandeep; Kumar, Manish; Rupakar, Pratik; Choyal, Kanaram; Prajapati, Seema

    2015-01-01

    Age assessment may be a crucial step in postmortem profiling leading to confirmative identification. In children, Demirjian's method based on eight developmental stages was developed to determine maturity scores as a function of age and polynomial functions to determine age as a function of score. Of this study was to evaluate the reliability of age estimation using Demirjian's eight teeth method following the French maturity scores and Indian-specific formula from developmental stages of third molar with the help of orthopantomograms using the Demirjian method. Dental panoramic tomograms from 30 subjects each of known chronological age and sex were collected and were evaluated according to Demirjian's criteria. Age calculations were performed using Demirjian's formula and Indian formula. Statistical analysis used was Chi-square test and ANOVA test and the P values obtained were statistically significant. There was an average underestimation of age with both Indian and Demirjian's formulas. The mean absolute error was lower using Indian formula hence it can be applied for age estimation in present Gujarati population. Also, females were ahead of achieving dental maturity than males thus completion of dental development is attained earlier in females. Greater accuracy can be obtained if population-specific formulas considering the ethnic and environmental variation are derived performing the regression analysis.

  2. Comparative analysis of old-age mortality estimations in Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eran Bendavid

    Full Text Available Survival to old ages is increasing in many African countries. While demographic tools for estimating mortality up to age 60 have improved greatly, mortality patterns above age 60 rely on models based on little or no demographic data. These estimates are important for social planning and demographic projections. We provide direct estimations of older-age mortality using survey data.Since 2005, nationally representative household surveys in ten sub-Saharan countries record counts of living and recently deceased household members: Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Ethiopia, Namibia, Nigeria, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. After accounting for age heaping using multiple imputation, we use this information to estimate probability of death in 5-year intervals ((5q(x. We then compare our (5q(x estimates to those provided by the World Health Organization (WHO and the United Nations Population Division (UNPD to estimate the differences in mortality estimates, especially among individuals older than 60 years old.We obtained information on 505,827 individuals (18.4% over age 60, 1.64% deceased. WHO and UNPD mortality models match our estimates closely up to age 60 (mean difference in probability of death -1.1%. However, mortality probabilities above age 60 are lower using our estimations than either WHO or UNPD. The mean difference between our sample and the WHO is 5.9% (95% CI 3.8-7.9% and between our sample is UNPD is 13.5% (95% CI 11.6-15.5%. Regardless of the comparator, the difference in mortality estimations rises monotonically above age 60.Mortality estimations above age 60 in ten African countries exhibit large variations depending on the method of estimation. The observed patterns suggest the possibility that survival in some African countries among adults older than age 60 is better than previously thought. Improving the quality and coverage of vital information in developing countries will become increasingly important with

  3. Forensic age estimation based on development of third molars: a staging technique for magnetic resonance imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Tobel, J; Phlypo, I; Fieuws, S; Politis, C; Verstraete, K L; Thevissen, P W

    2017-12-01

    The development of third molars can be evaluated with medical imaging to estimate age in subadults. The appearance of third molars on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) differs greatly from that on radiographs. Therefore a specific staging technique is necessary to classify third molar development on MRI and to apply it for age estimation. To develop a specific staging technique to register third molar development on MRI and to evaluate its performance for age estimation in subadults. Using 3T MRI in three planes, all third molars were evaluated in 309 healthy Caucasian participants from 14 to 26 years old. According to the appearance of the developing third molars on MRI, descriptive criteria and schematic representations were established to define a specific staging technique. Two observers, with different levels of experience, staged all third molars independently with the developed technique. Intra- and inter-observer agreement were calculated. The data were imported in a Bayesian model for age estimation as described by Fieuws et al. (2016). This approach adequately handles correlation between age indicators and missing age indicators. It was used to calculate a point estimate and a prediction interval of the estimated age. Observed age minus predicted age was calculated, reflecting the error of the estimate. One-hundred and sixty-six third molars were agenetic. Five percent (51/1096) of upper third molars and 7% (70/1044) of lower third molars were not assessable. Kappa for inter-observer agreement ranged from 0.76 to 0.80. For intra-observer agreement kappa ranged from 0.80 to 0.89. However, two stage differences between observers or between staging sessions occurred in up to 2.2% (20/899) of assessments, probably due to a learning effect. Using the Bayesian model for age estimation, a mean absolute error of 2.0 years in females and 1.7 years in males was obtained. Root mean squared error equalled 2.38 years and 2.06 years respectively. The performance to

  4. Evaluation of post-mortem estimated dental age versus real age: a retrospective 21-year survey

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reppien, Kirsa; Sejrsen, Birgitte; Lynnerup, Niels

    2006-01-01

    the estimated age, and in six cases by more than 6 years. The average difference between factual age at death and estimated age was 4.5 years. The four subadults in the material were all correctly estimated within an age range of +/-3 years. Our study showed that forensic odontological age estimates...... was subsequently achieved. In total, the study included 51 cases and 7 different methods had been used for dental age estimation, with the Bang/Ramm and the Gustafson/Johanson methods being the most frequently applied. The age estimates had usually been recorded as 10-year intervals. Factual ages at death were...... in the range of 6-76 years, with the largest concentration of cases being in the age interval of 25-55 years (34 cases). There was good agreement between estimated age interval and factual age at death in 37/51 (72%) of the cases. In eight cases the factual age at death deviated up to +/-5 years from...

  5. Infant bone age estimation based on fibular shaft length: model development and clinical validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tsai, Andy; Stamoulis, Catherine; Bixby, Sarah D.; Breen, Micheal A.; Connolly, Susan A.; Kleinman, Paul K. [Boston Children' s Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Department of Radiology, Boston, MA (United States)

    2016-03-15

    Bone age in infants (<1 year old) is generally estimated using hand/wrist or knee radiographs, or by counting ossification centers. The accuracy and reproducibility of these techniques are largely unknown. To develop and validate an infant bone age estimation technique using fibular shaft length and compare it to conventional methods. We retrospectively reviewed negative skeletal surveys of 247 term-born low-risk-of-abuse infants (no persistent child protection team concerns) from July 2005 to February 2013, and randomized them into two datasets: (1) model development (n = 123) and (2) model testing (n = 124). Three pediatric radiologists measured all fibular shaft lengths. An ordinary linear regression model was fitted to dataset 1, and the model was evaluated using dataset 2. Readers also estimated infant bone ages in dataset 2 using (1) the hemiskeleton method of Sontag, (2) the hemiskeleton method of Elgenmark, (3) the hand/wrist atlas of Greulich and Pyle, and (4) the knee atlas of Pyle and Hoerr. For validation, we selected lower-extremity radiographs of 114 normal infants with no suspicion of abuse. Readers measured the fibulas and also estimated bone ages using the knee atlas. Bone age estimates from the proposed method were compared to the other methods. The proposed method outperformed all other methods in accuracy and reproducibility. Its accuracy was similar for the testing and validating datasets, with root-mean-square error of 36 days and 37 days; mean absolute error of 28 days and 31 days; and error variability of 22 days and 20 days, respectively. This study provides strong support for an infant bone age estimation technique based on fibular shaft length as a more accurate alternative to conventional methods. (orig.)

  6. Discriminating Projections for Estimating Face Age in Wild Images

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tokola, Ryan A [ORNL; Bolme, David S [ORNL; Ricanek, Karl [ORNL; Barstow, Del R [ORNL; Boehnen, Chris Bensing [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    We introduce a novel approach to estimating the age of a human from a single uncontrolled image. Current face age estimation algorithms work well in highly controlled images, and some are robust to changes in illumination, but it is usually assumed that images are close to frontal. This bias is clearly seen in the datasets that are commonly used to evaluate age estimation, which either entirely or mostly consist of frontal images. Using pose-specific projections, our algorithm maps image features into a pose-insensitive latent space that is discriminative with respect to age. Age estimation is then performed using a multi-class SVM. We show that our approach outperforms other published results on the Images of Groups dataset, which is the only age-related dataset with a non-trivial number of off-axis face images, and that we are competitive with recent age estimation algorithms on the mostly-frontal FG-NET dataset. We also experimentally demonstrate that our feature projections introduce insensitivity to pose.

  7. New equations for age estimation using four permanent mandibular teeth in Thai children and adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duangto, P; Janhom, A; Prasitwattanaseree, S; Iamaroon, A

    2018-03-03

    The purposes of this study were to generate new age estimation equations using two four-teeth methods and to test the accuracy of the resulting equations in comparison with Demirjian and Goldstein four-teeth methods in a Thai population. A sample of 720 digital panoramic radiographs of Thai individuals (360 males and 360 females), aged between 7 and 15 years was randomly selected and assessed for age estimation. The new equations were developed using quadratic regression analysis. The results showed the Thai population-specific equations had a strong relationship between the dental maturity score and the chronological age in both sexes (r = 0.946-0.956). The new equations revealed no statistically significant differences between the estimated and the chronological ages in either sex. On the other hand, Demirjian and Goldstein four-teeth methods showed statistically significant differences between the estimated and the chronological ages in both sexes. Moreover, we found slight differences in the mean absolute error between Demirjian and Goldstein methods and our new equations (0.01 years for males and 0.03 years for females in method I and 0.04 years for males and 0.02 years for females in method II) and the root mean square error between Demirjian and Goldstein methods and our new equations (0.02 years for males and 0.04 years for females in method I and 0.00 years for males and 0.04 years for females in method II). In summary, although Thai population-specific equations provide a slightly increased accuracy in age estimation in Thai children and adolescents, Demirjian and Goldstein methods are still relevant.

  8. Estimation of gestational age from gall-bladder length.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Udaykumar, K; Udaykumar, Padmaja; Nagesh, K R

    2016-01-01

    Establishing a precise duration of gestation is vital in situations such as infanticide and criminal abortions. The present study attempted to estimate the gestational age of the foetus from gall-bladder length. Foetuses of various gestational age groups were dissected, and the length of the gall bladder was measured. The results were analysed, and a substantial degree of correlation was statistically confirmed. This novel method is helpful when the foetus is fragmented, putrefied or eviscerated, where this method can be used as an additional parameter to improve the accuracy of foetal age estimation. © The Author(s) 2015.

  9. Facial Asymmetry-Based Age Group Estimation: Role in Recognizing Age-Separated Face Images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sajid, Muhammad; Taj, Imtiaz Ahmad; Bajwa, Usama Ijaz; Ratyal, Naeem Iqbal

    2018-04-23

    Face recognition aims to establish the identity of a person based on facial characteristics. On the other hand, age group estimation is the automatic calculation of an individual's age range based on facial features. Recognizing age-separated face images is still a challenging research problem due to complex aging processes involving different types of facial tissues, skin, fat, muscles, and bones. Certain holistic and local facial features are used to recognize age-separated face images. However, most of the existing methods recognize face images without incorporating the knowledge learned from age group estimation. In this paper, we propose an age-assisted face recognition approach to handle aging variations. Inspired by the observation that facial asymmetry is an age-dependent intrinsic facial feature, we first use asymmetric facial dimensions to estimate the age group of a given face image. Deeply learned asymmetric facial features are then extracted for face recognition using a deep convolutional neural network (dCNN). Finally, we integrate the knowledge learned from the age group estimation into the face recognition algorithm using the same dCNN. This integration results in a significant improvement in the overall performance compared to using the face recognition algorithm alone. The experimental results on two large facial aging datasets, the MORPH and FERET sets, show that the proposed age group estimation based on the face recognition approach yields superior performance compared to some existing state-of-the-art methods. © 2018 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  10. Age synthesis and estimation via faces: a survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Yun; Guo, Guodong; Huang, Thomas S

    2010-11-01

    Human age, as an important personal trait, can be directly inferred by distinct patterns emerging from the facial appearance. Derived from rapid advances in computer graphics and machine vision, computer-based age synthesis and estimation via faces have become particularly prevalent topics recently because of their explosively emerging real-world applications, such as forensic art, electronic customer relationship management, security control and surveillance monitoring, biometrics, entertainment, and cosmetology. Age synthesis is defined to rerender a face image aesthetically with natural aging and rejuvenating effects on the individual face. Age estimation is defined to label a face image automatically with the exact age (year) or the age group (year range) of the individual face. Because of their particularity and complexity, both problems are attractive yet challenging to computer-based application system designers. Large efforts from both academia and industry have been devoted in the last a few decades. In this paper, we survey the complete state-of-the-art techniques in the face image-based age synthesis and estimation topics. Existing models, popular algorithms, system performances, technical difficulties, popular face aging databases, evaluation protocols, and promising future directions are also provided with systematic discussions.

  11. A smile can reveal your age: enabling facial dynamics in age estimation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dibeklioğlu, H.; Gevers, T.; Salah, A.A.; Valenti, R.

    2012-01-01

    Estimation of a person's age from the facial image has many applications, ranging from biometrics and access control to cosmetics and entertainment. Many image-based methods have been proposed for this problem. In this paper, we propose a method for the use of dynamic features in age estimation, and

  12. Coronal pulp biomarker: A lesser known age estimation modality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smrithi D Veera

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The evolving state of art digital technology currently available is opening new avenues in forensic odontology for age estimation methods which are subject to debate in terms of accuracy and precision. A study was carried to analyze efficacy and practical application for age estimation using digital panoramic radiographs on South Indian population. Aims and Objectives: 1. To study reduction of coronal pulp chamber using Tooth Coronal Index (TCI on panoramic radiographs and correlate with chronologic age. 2. To establish accuracy of digital panoramic radiographs as a simple, non-invasive tool. Materials and Methods: The study illustrates the potential value of a little known aging method. The study groups comprised a total of 100 subjects of both sexes in age range of 20 and 60 years each who were subjected to panoramic radiography. A panoramic radiographic examination using digital panoramic machine was conducted on selected individuals. The TCI was calibrated using AGFA computer software for accuracy and precision. The values obtained were subjected to regression analysis, results calculated and correlated with chronologic age. In the present study a population of known age was studied and subjected to digital panoramic radiographic examination. The correlation between reduction of coronal pulp cavity and chronological age was examined. TCI was computed for each tooth and regressed on real age. Statistical Analysis Used: Pearson correlation co-efficient was used to find the significance of relationship between age and TCI. Regression analysis has been used for predicting age using TCI for premolar and molar. Inaccuracy and bias have been determined to assess the precision of prediction equations. Results and Conclusion: Prediction potential of TCI comes down for ages above 50 years and is comfortably good below 50 years without much difference between premolars and molars. This study demonstrates the potential value of TCI for age

  13. Bone age estimation by cervical vertebral dimensions in lateral cephalometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varshosaz, Masoud; Ehsani, Sara; Nouri, Mahtab; Tavakoli, Mohammad A

    2012-09-01

    A critical issue in contemporary orthodontics is bone age estimation. The most reliable method for skeletal age evaluation is hand-wrist radiography; but it requires further radiation. There is an increasing attention for evaluating cervical vertebrae to reduce the radiation to the patients. The aim of this study was to estimate bone age by measuring 3rd and 4th cervical vertebrae (C3, C4) dimensions. We conducted a correlational study on 91 Iranian individuals aged 8-18 years. After taking lateral cephalometry and hand-wrist radiographs, C3 and C4 were measured using Vixwin 2000 software. Hand-wrist bone age, determined on Greulich Atlas, was the reference test. Stepwise multiple linear regression model demonstrated the correlation between the two measurements. Anterior height of the fourth cervical vertebrae (AH4) had the strongest simple correlation with hand-wrist bone age (r=0.831, P<0.001) and was the only variable that remained in stepwise multivariate regression model. The regression model was: Bone age=0.989×AH4+3.308. Adjusted R2 was 0.686 (p<0.001). Lateral cephalometric radiographs are useful for bone age estimation, and might be an alternative for hand-wrist radiography, with the advantage of radiation reduction. Copyright © 2011 Società Italiana di Ortodonzia SIDO. Published by Elsevier Srl. All rights reserved.

  14. Applying Absolute Residuals as Evaluation Criterion for Estimating the Development Time of Software Projects by Means of a Neuro-Fuzzy Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noel García-Díaz

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available In the software development field, software practitioners expend between 30% and 40% more effort than is predicted. Accordingly, researchers have proposed new models for estimating the development effort such that the estimations of these models are close to actual ones. In this study, an application based on a new neuro-fuzzy system (NFS is analyzed. The NFS accuracy was compared to that of a statistical multiple linear regression (MLR model. The criterion for evaluating the accuracy of estimation models has mainly been the Magnitude of Relative Error (MRE, however, it was recently found that MRE is asymmetric, and the use of Absolute Residuals (AR has been proposed, therefore, in this study, the accuracy results of the NFS and MLR were based on AR. After a statistical paired t-test was performed, results showed that accuracy of the New-NFS is statistically better than that of the MLR at the 99% confidence level. It can be concluded that a new-NFS could be used for predicting the effort of software development projects when they have been individually developed on a disciplined process.

  15. Effectiveness of three age estimation methods based on dental and skeletal development in a sample of young Brazilians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machado, Marcelo Afonso; Daruge Júnior, Eduardo; Fernandes, Mário Marques; Lima, Igor Felipe Pereira; Cericato, Graziela Oro; Franco, Ademir; Paranhos, Luiz Renato

    2018-01-01

    This study compared three methods designed for age estimation. A sample of 468 radiographs (234 panoramic and 234 carpal radiographs) collected from patients ranging from 5 to 14 years old (mean age: 11.27years old±2.27years) was used. Three age estimation methods: were applied: one founded on dental development, one founded on hand and wrist development, and a method combining both measurements. For each method, the mean error (ME), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean percentage of absolute error (MPAE) were quantified. The methods: were compared based on their effectiveness for estimating age in relation to sex and age range. The data show that the method exclusively using the development of the hand and wrist had the highest error rates (ME: 1.28M, 1.85F; MAE: 1.64M, 1.96F; RMSE: 1.94M, 2.32F) for both males (M) and females (F). In males, the method combining dental and skeletal development obtained outcomes that were slightly better than the method founded on only dental development (MPAE: 6.99% and 7.47%, respectively). In females, the opposite result was observed (MPAE: 8.48% and 6.59%, respectively). The method founded exclusively on skeletal development significantly overestimated (p=0.001) the age (mean chronological and estimated ages: 11.27 and 12.88, respectively). The methods involving dental development provided more accurate age estimates of chronological age. The method exclusively based on hand and wrist development resulted in outcomes that were highly discrepant from the chronological age. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Age estimation in forensic sciences: Application of combined aspartic acid racemization and radiocarbon analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alkass, K; Buchholz, B A; Ohtani, S; Yamamoto, T; Druid, H; Spalding, S L

    2009-11-02

    Age determination of unknown human bodies is important in the setting of a crime investigation or a mass disaster, since the age at death, birth date and year of death, as well as gender, can guide investigators to the correct identity among a large number of possible matches. Traditional morphological methods used by anthropologists to determine age are often imprecise, whereas chemical analysis of tooth dentin, such as aspartic acid racemization has shown reproducible and more precise results. In this paper we analyze teeth from Swedish individuals using both aspartic acid racemization and radiocarbon methodologies. The rationale behind using radiocarbon analysis is that above-ground testing of nuclear weapons during the cold war (1955-1963) caused an extreme increase in global levels of carbon-14 ({sup 14}C) which have been carefully recorded over time. Forty-four teeth from 41 individuals were analyzed using aspartic acid racemization analysis of tooth crown dentin or radiocarbon analysis of enamel and ten of these were split and subjected to both radiocarbon and racemization analysis. Combined analysis showed that the two methods correlated well (R2=0.66, p < 0.05). Radiocarbon analysis showed an excellent precision with an overall absolute error of 0.6 {+-} 04 years. Aspartic acid racemization also showed a good precision with an overall absolute error of 5.4 {+-} 4.2 years. Whereas radiocarbon analysis gives an estimated year of birth, racemization analysis indicates the chronological age of the individual at the time of death. We show how these methods in combination can also assist in the estimation of date of death of an unidentified victim. This strategy can be of significant assistance in forensic casework involving dead victim identification.

  17. Using a Novel Absolute Ontogenetic Age Determination Technique to Calculate the Timing of Tooth Eruption in the Saber-Toothed Cat, Smilodon fatalis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wysocki, M Aleksander; Feranec, Robert S; Tseng, Zhijie Jack; Bjornsson, Christopher S

    2015-01-01

    Despite the superb fossil record of the saber-toothed cat, Smilodon fatalis, ontogenetic age determination for this and other ancient species remains a challenge. The present study utilizes a new technique, a combination of data from stable oxygen isotope analyses and micro-computed tomography, to establish the eruption rate for the permanent upper canines in Smilodon fatalis. The results imply an eruption rate of 6.0 millimeters per month, which is similar to a previously published average enamel growth rate of the S. fatalis upper canines (5.8 millimeters per month). Utilizing the upper canine growth rate, the upper canine eruption rate, and a previously published tooth replacement sequence, this study calculates absolute ontogenetic age ranges of tooth development and eruption in S. fatalis. The timing of tooth eruption is compared between S. fatalis and several extant conical-toothed felids, such as the African lion (Panthera leo). Results suggest that the permanent dentition of S. fatalis, except for the upper canines, was fully erupted by 14 to 22 months, and that the upper canines finished erupting at about 34 to 41 months. Based on these developmental age calculations, S. fatalis individuals less than 4 to 7 months of age were not typically preserved at Rancho La Brea. On the whole, S. fatalis appears to have had delayed dental development compared to dental development in similar-sized extant felids. This technique for absolute ontogenetic age determination can be replicated in other ancient species, including non-saber-toothed taxa, as long as the timing of growth initiation and growth rate can be determined for a specific feature, such as a tooth, and that growth period overlaps with the development of the other features under investigation.

  18. Forensic Age Estimation of Chinese Malaysian Adults by Evaluating Occlusal Tooth Wear Using Modified Kim’s Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chai Kit Lu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background and Objective. Evaluation of dental attrition is an easy and relatively accurate approach to estimating the age of an adult either ante- or postmortem for some specific population. Dental attrition represents a progressive physiological age change that can be measured using variety of indices to aid as an adjunct in forensic age estimation. Some of the previously proposed indices have their own practical limitations. This paper focuses on using modified Kim’s criteria to score dental attrition to estimate the age of Chinese Malaysian adults and validate it. Methodology. Tooth wear was evaluated on 190 dental models of Chinese Malaysian adults (age range: 20–60 years using modified Kim’s index to custom-derive a population specific linear equation. The same equation was validated further on new 60 dental casts. Results and Conclusion. Regression analysis revealed good correlation between age and teeth wear and lower standard error of estimate. Test of regression on a test sample (n=30 pairs, age range: 20–60 years showed insignificant difference between predicted versus the actual age with statistically acceptable mean absolute difference. These data suggest that modified Kim’s index can be used effectively in forensic age estimation.

  19. Non-destructive methods to estimate physical aging of plywood

    OpenAIRE

    Bobadilla Maldonado, Ignacio; Santirso, María Cristina; Herrero Giner, Daniel; Esteban Herrero, Miguel; Iñiguez Gonzalez, Guillermo

    2011-01-01

    This paper studies the relationship between aging, physical changes and the results of non-destructive testing of plywood. 176 pieces of plywood were tested to analyze their actual and estimated density using non-destructive methods (screw withdrawal force and ultrasound wave velocity) during a laboratory aging test. From the results of statistical analysis it can be concluded that there is a strong relationship between the non-destructive measurements carried out, and the decline in the phys...

  20. Human age estimation framework using different facial parts

    OpenAIRE

    Mohamed Y. El Dib; Hoda M. Onsi

    2011-01-01

    Human age estimation from facial images has a wide range of real-world applications in human computer interaction (HCI). In this paper, we use the bio-inspired features (BIF) to analyze different facial parts: (a) eye wrinkles, (b) whole internal face (without forehead area) and (c) whole face (with forehead area) using different feature shape points. The analysis shows that eye wrinkles which cover 30% of the facial area contain the most important aging features compared to internal face and...

  1. Using Mean Absolute Relative Phase, Deviation Phase and Point-Estimation Relative Phase to Measure Postural Coordination in a Serial Reaching Task

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne K. Galgon, Patricia A. Shewokis

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The objectives of this communication are to present the methods used to calculate mean absolute relative phase (MARP, deviation phase (DP and point estimate relative phase (PRP and compare their utility in measuring postural coordination during the performance of a serial reaching task. MARP and DP are derived from continuous relative phase time series representing the relationship between two body segments or joints during movements. MARP is a single measure used to quantify the coordination pattern and DP measures the stability of the coordination pattern. PRP also quantifies coordination patterns by measuring the relationship between the timing of maximal or minimal angular displacements of two segments within cycles of movement. Seven young adults practiced a bilateral serial reaching task 300 times over 3 days. Relative phase measures were used to evaluate inter-joint relationships for shoulder-hip (proximal and hip-ankle (distal postural coordination at early and late learning. MARP, PRP and DP distinguished between proximal and distal postural coordination. There was no effect of practice on any of the relative phase measures for the group, but individual differences were seen over practice. Combined, MARP and DP estimated stability of in-phase and anti-phase postural coordination patterns, however additional qualitative movement analyses may be needed to interpret findings in a serial task. We discuss the strengths and limitations of using MARP and DP and compare MARP and DP to PRP measures in assessing coordination patterns in the context of various types of skillful tasks.

  2. Evaluation and reliability of bone histological age estimation methods

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The review of those methods showed that the nature of research for estimating age at death has been shifted from gross morphological analysis to histological analysis, and its further going towards the use of digital image processing tools to achieve high accuracy. Histological methods based on the analysis of bone ...

  3. Dental age estimation in Japanese individuals combining permanent teeth and third molars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramanan, Namratha; Thevissen, Patrick; Fleuws, Steffen; Willems, G

    2012-12-01

    The study aim was, firstly, to verify the Willems et al. model on a Japanese reference sample. Secondly to develop a Japanese reference model based on the Willems et al. method and to verify it. Thirdly to analyze the age prediction performance adding tooth development information of third molars to permanent teeth. Retrospectively 1877 panoramic radiographs were selected in the age range between 1 and 23 years (1248 children, 629 sub-adults). Dental development was registered applying Demirjian 's stages of the mandibular left permanent teeth in children and Köhler stages on the third molars. The children's data were, firstly, used to validate the Willems et al. model (developed a Belgian reference sample), secondly, split ino a training and a test sample. On the training sample a Japanese reference model was developed based on the Willems method. The developed model and the Willems et al; model were verified on the test sample. Regression analysis was used to detect the age prediction performance adding third molar scores to permanent tooth scores. The validated Willems et al. model provided a mean absolute error of 0.85 and 0.75 years in females and males, respectively. The mean absolute error in the verified Willems et al. and the developed Japanese reference model was 0.85, 0.77 and 0.79, 0.75 years in females and males, respectively. On average a negligible change in root mean square error values was detected adding third molar scores to permanent teeth scores. The Belgian sample could be used as a reference model to estimate the age of the Japanese individuals. Combining information from the third molars and permanent teeth was not providing clinically significant improvement of age predictions based on permanent teeth information alone.

  4. Using Supervised Deep Learning for Human Age Estimation Problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drobnyh, K. A.; Polovinkin, A. N.

    2017-05-01

    Automatic facial age estimation is a challenging task upcoming in recent years. In this paper, we propose using the supervised deep learning features to improve an accuracy of the existing age estimation algorithms. There are many approaches solving the problem, an active appearance model and the bio-inspired features are two of them which showed the best accuracy. For experiments we chose popular publicly available FG-NET database, which contains 1002 images with a broad variety of light, pose, and expression. LOPO (leave-one-person-out) method was used to estimate the accuracy. Experiments demonstrated that adding supervised deep learning features has improved accuracy for some basic models. For example, adding the features to an active appearance model gave the 4% gain (the error decreased from 4.59 to 4.41).

  5. Calibration with Absolute Shrinkage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Øjelund, Henrik; Madsen, Henrik; Thyregod, Poul

    2001-01-01

    In this paper, penalized regression using the L-1 norm on the estimated parameters is proposed for chemometric je calibration. The algorithm is of the lasso type, introduced by Tibshirani in 1996 as a linear regression method with bound on the absolute length of the parameters, but a modification...... to the lasso. The lasso is applied both directly as a calibration method and as a method to select important variables/wave lengths. It is demonstrated that the lasso algorithm, in general, leads to parameter estimates of which some are zero while others are quite large (compared to e.g. the traditional PLS...

  6. Dental age estimation using Willems method: A digital orthopantomographic study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rezwana Begum Mohammed

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, age estimation has become increasingly important in living people for a variety of reasons, including identifying criminal and legal responsibility, and for many other social events such as a birth certificate, marriage, beginning a job, joining the army, and retirement. Objectives: The aim of this study was to assess the developmental stages of left seven mandibular teeth for estimation of dental age (DA in different age groups and to evaluate the possible correlation between DA and chronological age (CA in South Indian population using Willems method. Materials and Methods: Digital Orthopantomogram of 332 subjects (166 males, 166 females who fit the study and the criteria were obtained. Assessment of mandibular teeth (from central incisor to the second molar on left quadrant development was undertaken and DA was assessed using Willems method. Results and Discussion: The present study showed a significant correlation between DA and CA in both males (r = 0.71 and females (r = 0.88. The overall mean difference between the estimated DA and CA for males was 0.69 ± 2.14 years (P 0.05. Willems method underestimated the mean age of males by 0.69 years and females by 0.08 years and showed that females mature earlier than males in selected population. The mean difference between DA and CA according to Willems method was 0.39 years and is statistically significant (P < 0.05. Conclusion: This study showed significant relation between DA and CA. Thus, digital radiographic assessment of mandibular teeth development can be used to generate mean DA using Willems method and also the estimated age range for an individual of unknown CA.

  7. Maximizing Information Yield From Pheromone-Baited Monitoring Traps: Estimating Plume Reach, Trapping Radius, and Absolute Density of Cydia pomonella (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) in Michigan Apple.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, C G; Schenker, J H; McGhee, P S; Gut, L J; Brunner, J F; Miller, J R

    2017-04-01

    Novel methods of data analysis were used to interpret codling moth (Cydia pomonella) catch data from central-trap, multiple-release experiments using a standard codlemone-baited monitoring trap in commercial apple orchards not under mating disruption. The main objectives were to determine consistency and reliability for measures of: 1) the trapping radius, composed of the trap's behaviorally effective plume reach and the maximum dispersive distance of a responder population; and 2) the proportion of the population present in the trapping area that is caught. Two moth release designs were used: 1) moth releases at regular intervals in the four cardinal directions, and 2) evenly distributed moth releases across entire approximately 18-ha orchard blocks using both high and low codling moth populations. For both release designs, at high populations, the mean proportion catch was 0.01, and for the even release of low populations, that value was approximately 0.02. Mean maximum dispersive distance for released codling moth males was approximately 260 m. Behaviorally effective plume reach for the standard codling moth trap was < 5 m, and total trapping area for a single trap was approximately 21 ha. These estimates were consistent across three growing seasons and are supported by extraordinarily high replication for this type of field experiment. Knowing the trapping area and mean proportion caught, catch number per single monitoring trap can be translated into absolute pest density using the equation: males per trapping area = catch per trapping area/proportion caught. Thus, catches of 1, 3, 10, and 30 codling moth males per trap translate to approximately 5, 14, 48, and 143 males/ha, respectively, and reflect equal densities of females, because the codling moth sex ratio is 1:1. Combined with life-table data on codling moth fecundity and mortality, along with data on crop yield per trapping area, this fundamental knowledge of how to interpret catch numbers

  8. Estimating Twin Pair Concordance for Age of Onset

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas H.; Hjelmborg, Jacob B.; Holst, Klaus K.

    2015-01-01

    given that the co-twin has the disease. Most diseases have a varying age-of-onset that will lead to age-specific prevalence. Typically, this aspect is not considered, and this may lead to severe bias as well as make it very unclear exactly what population quantities that we are estimating. In addition...... that they will develop the disease. The aim of this contribution is to show that the standard casewise concordance and standard prevalence estimators do not work in general for age-of-onset data. We show how one can in fact do something easy and simple even with censored data. The key is to take age into account when......, one will typically need to deal with censoring in the data, that is the fact that we for some subjects only know that they are alive at a specific age without having the disease. These subjects needs to be considered age specifically, and clearly if they are young there is still a risk...

  9. [Age estimation and age structure of Cycas fairylakea population in Shenzhen City].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Dian-Pei; Ji, Shu-Yi; Chen, Fei-Peng; Peng, Shao-Lin

    2007-03-01

    Based on the structural characteristics of Cycas trunk, including vegetative leaf base scars, sporophyll concave rings, and average occurrence probabilities of vegetative leaf and sporophyll, a method for the age estimation of Cycas fairylakea population was developed, and the age of each individual was calculated. Three approaches, i.e., age structure diagram, age distribution curve and curve estimation were used to study the age structure of C. fairylakea population at genet and clone population levels. The age structure diagram showed that the clone population of C. fairylakea was stable, but the genet population was in declining. However, both of the clone and genet populations were in declining when using the other two approaches. It was considered that the C. fairylakea population was in declining, and needed an urgent protection.

  10. Age estimation of bloodstains using smartphones and digital image analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thanakiatkrai, Phuvadol; Yaodam, Alisa; Kitpipit, Thitika

    2013-12-10

    Recent studies on bloodstains have focused on determining the time since deposition of bloodstains, which can provide useful temporal information to forensic investigations. This study is the first to use smartphone cameras in combination with a truly low-cost illumination system as a tool to estimate the age of bloodstains. Bloodstains were deposited on various substrates and photographed with a smartphone camera. Three smartphones (Samsung Galaxy S Plus, Apple iPhone 4, and Apple iPad 2) were compared. The environmental effects - temperature, humidity, light exposure, and anticoagulant - on the bloodstain age estimation process were explored. The color values from the digital images were extracted and correlated with time since deposition. Magenta had the highest correlation (R(2)=0.966) and was used in subsequent experiments. The Samsung Galaxy S Plus was the most suitable smartphone as its magenta decreased exponentially with increasing time and had highest repeatability (low variation within and between pictures). The quantifiable color change observed is consistent with well-established hemoglobin denaturation process. Using a statistical classification technique called Random Forests™, we could predict bloodstain age accurately up to 42 days with an error rate of 12%. Additionally, the age of forty blind stains were all correctly predicted, and 83% of mock casework samples were correctly classified. No within- and between-person variations were observed (p>0.05), while smartphone camera, temperature, humidity, and substrate color influenced the age determination process in different ways. Our technique provides a cheap, rapid, easy-to-use, and truly portable alternative to more complicated analysis using specialized equipment, e.g. spectroscopy and HPLC. No training is necessary with our method, and we envision a smartphone application that could take user inputs of environmental factors and provide an accurate estimate of bloodstain age. Copyright © 2013

  11. Estimating age conditional probability of developing disease from surveillance data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fay Michael P

    2004-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Fay, Pfeiffer, Cronin, Le, and Feuer (Statistics in Medicine 2003; 22; 1837–1848 developed a formula to calculate the age-conditional probability of developing a disease for the first time (ACPDvD for a hypothetical cohort. The novelty of the formula of Fay et al (2003 is that one need not know the rates of first incidence of disease per person-years alive and disease-free, but may input the rates of first incidence per person-years alive only. Similarly the formula uses rates of death from disease and death from other causes per person-years alive. The rates per person-years alive are much easier to estimate than per person-years alive and disease-free. Fay et al (2003 used simple piecewise constant models for all three rate functions which have constant rates within each age group. In this paper, we detail a method for estimating rate functions which does not have jumps at the beginning of age groupings, and need not be constant within age groupings. We call this method the mid-age group joinpoint (MAJ model for the rates. The drawback of the MAJ model is that numerical integration must be used to estimate the resulting ACPDvD. To increase computational speed, we offer a piecewise approximation to the MAJ model, which we call the piecewise mid-age group joinpoint (PMAJ model. The PMAJ model for the rates input into the formula for ACPDvD described in Fay et al (2003 is the current method used in the freely available DevCan software made available by the National Cancer Institute.

  12. Northern Chinese dental ages estimated from southern Chinese reference datasets closely correlate with chronological age

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hai Ming Wong

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available While northern and southern Chinese are genetically correlated, there exists notable environmental differences in their living conditions. This study aimed to evaluate validity of the southern Chinese reference dataset for dental age estimation applied to northern Chinese. Dental panoramic tomographs of 437 northern Chinese aged 3 to 21 years were analysed. All the left maxillary and mandibular permanent teeth plus the 2 third molars on the right side were scored based on Demirjian’s classification of tooth development stages. Mean and standard error of dental age were obtained for each tooth development stage, followed by random effect meta-analysis for mean dental age estimation. Validity of the method was examined through measures of agreement (95% limits of agreement, standard error of measurement, and Lin’s concordance correlation coefficient and measure of reliability (Intraclass correlation coefficient. On average, the estimated dental age overestimated chronological age by only around 1 month in both females and males. The Intraclass correlation coefficient values were 0.99 for both sexes, suggesting excellent reliability of the method. Reference dataset for dental age estimation developed on the basis of southern Chinese was applicable for use among the northern Chinese.

  13. Psychophysical estimation of speed discrimination. II. Aging effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raghuram, Aparna; Lakshminarayanan, Vasudevan; Khanna, Ritu

    2005-10-01

    We studied the effects of aging on a speed discrimination task using a pair of first-order drifting luminance gratings. Two reference speeds of 2 and 8 deg/s were presented at stimulus durations of 500 ms and 1000 ms. The choice of stimulus parameters, etc., was determined in preliminary experiments and described in Part I. Thresholds were estimated using a two-alternative-forced-choice staircase methodology. Data were collected from 16 younger subjects (mean age 24 years) and 17 older subjects (mean age 71 years). Results showed that thresholds for speed discrimination were higher for the older age group. This was especially true at stimulus duration of 500 ms for both slower and faster speeds. This could be attributed to differences in temporal integration of speed with age. Visual acuity and contrast sensitivity were not statistically observed to mediate age differences in the speed discrimination thresholds. Gender differences were observed in the older age group, with older women having higher thresholds.

  14. Estimation of component redundancy in optimal age maintenance

    OpenAIRE

    Siopa, Jorge; Garção, José; Silva, Júlio

    2012-01-01

    The classical Optimal Age-Replacement defines the maintenance strategy based on the equipment failure consequences. For severe consequences an early equipment replacement is recommended. For minor consequences the repair after failure is proposed. One way of reducing the failure consequences is the use of redundancies, especially if the equipment failure rate is decreasing over time, since in this case the preventive replacement does not reduce the risk of failure. The estimation of an ac...

  15. The juvenile face as a suitable age indicator in child pornography cases: a pilot study on the reliability of automated and visual estimation approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratnayake, M; Obertová, Z; Dose, M; Gabriel, P; Bröker, H M; Brauckmann, M; Barkus, A; Rizgeliene, R; Tutkuviene, J; Ritz-Timme, S; Marasciuolo, L; Gibelli, D; Cattaneo, C

    2014-09-01

    In cases of suspected child pornography, the age of the victim represents a crucial factor for legal prosecution. The conventional methods for age estimation provide unreliable age estimates, particularly if teenage victims are concerned. In this pilot study, the potential of age estimation for screening purposes is explored for juvenile faces. In addition to a visual approach, an automated procedure is introduced, which has the ability to rapidly scan through large numbers of suspicious image data in order to trace juvenile faces. Age estimations were performed by experts, non-experts and the Demonstrator of a developed software on frontal facial images of 50 females aged 10-19 years from Germany, Italy, and Lithuania. To test the accuracy, the mean absolute error (MAE) between the estimates and the real ages was calculated for each examiner and the Demonstrator. The Demonstrator achieved the lowest MAE (1.47 years) for the 50 test images. Decreased image quality had no significant impact on the performance and classification results. The experts delivered slightly less accurate MAE (1.63 years). Throughout the tested age range, both the manual and the automated approach led to reliable age estimates within the limits of natural biological variability. The visual analysis of the face produces reasonably accurate age estimates up to the age of 18 years, which is the legally relevant age threshold for victims in cases of pedo-pornography. This approach can be applied in conjunction with the conventional methods for a preliminary age estimation of juveniles depicted on images.

  16. Human age estimation framework using different facial parts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Y. El Dib

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Human age estimation from facial images has a wide range of real-world applications in human computer interaction (HCI. In this paper, we use the bio-inspired features (BIF to analyze different facial parts: (a eye wrinkles, (b whole internal face (without forehead area and (c whole face (with forehead area using different feature shape points. The analysis shows that eye wrinkles which cover 30% of the facial area contain the most important aging features compared to internal face and whole face. Furthermore, more extensive experiments are made on FG-NET database by increasing the number of missing pictures in older age groups using MORPH database to enhance the results.

  17. Estimating density dependence from time series of population age structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lande, Russell; Engen, Steinar; Saether, Bernt-Erik; Coulson, Tim

    2006-07-01

    Population fluctuations are caused by demographic and environmental stochasticity, time lags due to life history, and density dependence. We model a general life history allowing density dependence within and among age or stage classes in a population undergoing small or moderate fluctuations around a stable equilibrium. We develop a method for estimating the overall strength of density dependence measured by the rate of return toward equilibrium, and we also consider a simplified population description and forecasting using the density-dependent reproductive value. This generality comes at the cost of requiring a time series of the population age or stage structure instead of a univariate time series of adult or total population size. The method is illustrated by analyzing the dynamics of a fully censused population of red deer (Cervus elaphus) based on annual fluctuations of age structure through 21 years.

  18. The Prevalence of Age-Related Eye Diseases and Visual Impairment in Aging: Current Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Ronald; Klein, Barbara E. K.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose. To examine prevalence of five age-related eye conditions (age-related cataract, AMD, open-angle glaucoma, diabetic retinopathy [DR], and visual impairment) in the United States. Methods. Review of published scientific articles and unpublished research findings. Results. Cataract, AMD, open-angle glaucoma, DR, and visual impairment prevalences are high in four different studies of these conditions, especially in people over 75 years of age. There are disparities among racial/ethnic groups with higher age-specific prevalence of DR, open-angle glaucoma, and visual impairment in Hispanics and blacks compared with whites, higher prevalence of age-related cataract in whites compared with blacks, and higher prevalence of late AMD in whites compared with Hispanics and blacks. The estimates are based on old data and do not reflect recent changes in the distribution of age and race/ethnicity in the United States population. There are no epidemiologic estimates of prevalence for many visually-impairing conditions. Conclusions. Ongoing prevalence surveys designed to provide reliable estimates of visual impairment, AMD, age-related cataract, open-angle glaucoma, and DR are needed. It is important to collect objective data on these and other conditions that affect vision and quality of life in order to plan for health care needs and identify areas for further research. PMID:24335069

  19. Methods for the quantitative comparison of molecular estimates of clade age and the fossil record.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, Julia A; Boyd, Clint A

    2015-01-01

    Approaches quantifying the relative congruence, or incongruence, of molecular divergence estimates and the fossil record have been limited. Previously proposed methods are largely node specific, assessing incongruence at particular nodes for which both fossil data and molecular divergence estimates are available. These existing metrics, and other methods that quantify incongruence across topologies including entirely extinct clades, have so far not taken into account uncertainty surrounding both the divergence estimates and the ages of fossils. They have also treated molecular divergence estimates younger than previously assessed fossil minimum estimates of clade age as if they were the same as cases in which they were older. However, these cases are not the same. Recovered divergence dates younger than compared oldest known occurrences require prior hypotheses regarding the phylogenetic position of the compared fossil record and standard assumptions about the relative timing of morphological and molecular change to be incorrect. Older molecular dates, by contrast, are consistent with an incomplete fossil record and do not require prior assessments of the fossil record to be unreliable in some way. Here, we compare previous approaches and introduce two new descriptive metrics. Both metrics explicitly incorporate information on uncertainty by utilizing the 95% confidence intervals on estimated divergence dates and data on stratigraphic uncertainty concerning the age of the compared fossils. Metric scores are maximized when these ranges are overlapping. MDI (minimum divergence incongruence) discriminates between situations where molecular estimates are younger or older than known fossils reporting both absolute fit values and a number score for incompatible nodes. DIG range (divergence implied gap range) allows quantification of the minimum increase in implied missing fossil record induced by enforcing a given set of molecular-based estimates. These metrics are used

  20. Age estimates and stick-nest rat middens

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pearson, S.; Lawson, E.

    1998-01-01

    A total of 112 radiocarbon analyses on stick-nest rat middens gathered from published and grey literature show (see figure) that the middens of stick-nest rats have a positively skewed distribution. The average of all the estimates is ca. 2967 BP with the oldest midden dated at around 10870 BP. Over 75% of the results are younger than -4480 BP. Possible explanations for this pattern include; sample bias, rate of midden and cave decay, a real pattern of midden age distribution and development of techniques. The components of the midden being used for radiocarbon analysis has been remarkably uniform. This reflects the small number of researchers in the field and the experience of the American packrat midden research. Early researchers using conventional methods used charcoal and large mixtures of material whereas AMS now allows individual scats to be analysed. In fact 37% of analyses have been on scats as these provide direct evidence of midden occupation and are plentiful in the midden matrix. 66% of analyses used AINSE's AMS method and 23% used conventional methods - the distribution of results using the two methods are similar. A number of dates have incomplete laboratory or methods information. Similar analysis of packrat midden dates in the United States identified both ecological and systematic bias in the age patterns (Webb 1986). The efficacy of midden analysis in Australia, as in America, is limited by the cost of age estimates

  1. White blood cell count, absolute neutrophil count, as predictors of hidden bacterial infections in febrile children 1-18 months of age without focus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    AL-Majali, R.M.

    2004-01-01

    Objectives: To study the relationship between White Blood Cell (WBC), Absolute Neutrophil Count (ANC) in febrile children 1-18 months of age as predictor of bacterial infection, so as to improve our predictability of bacterial infections in emergency room to decrease unnecessary admissions and antibiotic use. Methods: Retrospective review was performed on febrile patients 1-18 months of age that were admitted to hospital between August 2002 and March 2003 on the presumptive diagnosis of fever without focus, Complete septic work up was done for all patients according to local hospital protocol including Complete blood count (CBC), blood culture, urine culture, Chest X-Ray (CXR) and lumbar puncture, Patients who had history of antibiotics use within 48 hours of admission were excluded from the study, History, physical examination, laboratory and radiology data were reviewed. Data about the age, sex, temperature, presence or absence of focal bacterial infection, WBC, ANC, CXR report and body fluid culture results were collected and analyzed. Results: Thirty-four patients were reviewed in this study, Eight patients (23.5%) had bacterial infection: classified as group (2 patchy pneumonia, 3 Urinary tract infection (UTI), 2 meningitis, 1 Occult bacteremia (OB) and 26 patients (76.5%) had no evidence of bacterial infection, classified as group 2, No significant difference was found between the two groups in respect to age, sex, temperature and WBC P>0.05, while there was a significant difference between the two groups in respect to the ANC P = 0.02, also ANC had better sensitivity (78%) and specificity (89%) than WBC (sensitivity 77%, specificity 62%). Conclusion: ANC is a good predictive test for determining bacterial infection in young febrile children without focus, However there is need for other more reliable rapid cost effective measures in dealing with young febrile children at emergency department. (author)

  2. ESTIMATION OF AGING EFFECTS OF PILES IN MALAYSIAN OFFSHORE LOCATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JERIN M. GEORGE

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available An increasing demand for extending life and subsequently higher loading requirements of offshore jacket platforms are among the key problems faced by the offshore industry. The Aging effect has been proved to increase the axial capacity of piles, but proper methods to estimate and quantify these effects have not been developed. Borehole data from ten different Malaysian offshore locations have been analysed and they were employed to estimate the setup factor for different locations using AAU method. The setup factors found were used in the Skov and Denver equation to calculate capacity ratios of the offshore piles. The study showed that there will be an average improvement in the axial capacity of offshore piles by 42.2% and 34.9% for clayey and mixed soils respectively after a time equal to the normal design life (25 years of a jacket platform.

  3. Estimation of fetal gestational age from ultrasound images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salari, Valiollah

    1992-06-01

    Estimation of fetal gestational age, weight, and determination of fetal growth from the measurements of certain parameters of fetal head, abdomen, and femur have been well established in prenatal sonography. The measurements are made from the two dimensional, B- mode, ultrasound images of the fetus. The most common parameters measured are, biparietal diameter, occipital frontal diameter, head circumference, femur diaphysis length, and abdominal circumference. Since the fetal head has an elliptical shape and the femur has a linear shape, fitting the ellipse on the image of the fetal head, a line on the image of the femur are the tasks of image processing which are discussed in this paper.

  4. Microelements in fossil bones and the estimation of age

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Besliu, C.; Olariu, A.; Popescu, I.; Badica, Th.

    1993-01-01

    Neutron activation analysis was used to determine microelements fossil bones and the correlation was found between some elements and the C-14 estimated age of the bones. Fluorine, uranium and manganese content in the bones structure increases with the time elapsed, during fossilization. This means that measurable concentrations of these elements and known environmental conditions could provide a relative dating tool of bones beyond the 70 ky radiocarbon limit, for paleolithic archaeology. Sodium, scandium, iron, and zinc have been also determined in fossil bones, but a relation with the increasing antiquity of the fossil has been observed. (Author)

  5. Human age estimation combining third molar and skeletal development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thevissen, P W; Kaur, J; Willems, G

    2012-03-01

    The wide prediction intervals obtained with age estimation methods based on third molar development could be reduced by combining these dental observations with age-related skeletal information. Therefore, on cephalometric radiographs, the most accurate age-estimating skeletal variable and related registration method were searched and added to a regression model, with age as response and third molar stages as explanatory variable. In a pilot set up on a dataset of 496 (283 M; 213 F) cephalometric radiographs, the techniques of Baccetti et al. (2005) (BA), Seedat et al. (2005) (SE), Caldas et al. (2007) and Rai et al. (2008) (RA) were verified. In the main study, data from 460 (208 F, 224 M) individuals in an age range between 3 and 26 years, for which at the same day an orthopantogram and a cephalogram were taken, were collected. On the orthopantomograms, the left third molar development was registered using the scoring system described by Gleiser and Hunt (1955) and modified by Köhler (1994) (GH). On the cephalograms, cervical vertebrae development was registered according to the BA and SE techniques. A regression model, with age as response and the GH scores as explanatory variable, was fitted to the data. Next, information of BA, SE and BA + SE was, respectively, added to this model. From all obtained models, the determination coefficients and the root mean squared errors were calculated. Inclusion of information from cephalograms based on the BA, as well as the SE, technique improved the amount of explained variance in age acquired from panoramic radiographs using the GH technique with 48%. Inclusion of cephalometric BA + SE information marginally improved the previous result (+1%). The RMSE decreased with 1.93, 1.85 and 2.03 years by adding, respectively, BA, SE and BA + SE information to the GH model. The SE technique allows clinically the fastest and easiest registration of the degree of development of the cervical vertebrae. Therefore, the choice of

  6. Human dental age estimation combining third molar(s) development and tooth morphological age predictors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thevissen, P W; Galiti, D; Willems, G

    2012-11-01

    In the subadult age group, third molar development, as well as age-related morphological tooth information can be observed on panoramic radiographs. The aim of present study was to combine, in subadults, panoramic radiographic data based on developmental stages of third molar(s) and morphological measurements from permanent teeth, in order to evaluate its added age-predicting performances. In the age range between 15 and 23 years, 25 gender-specific radiographs were collected within each age category of 1 year. Third molar development was classified and registered according the 10-point staging and scoring technique proposed by Gleiser and Hunt (1955), modified by Köhler (1994). The Kvaal (1995) measuring technique was applied on the indicated teeth from the individuals' left side. Linear regression models with age as response and third molar-scored stages as explanatory variables were developed, and morphological measurements from permanent teeth were added. From the models, determination coefficients (R (2)) and root-mean-square errors (RMSE) were calculated. Maximal-added age information was reported as a 6 % R² increase and a 0.10-year decrease of RMSE. Forensic dental age estimations on panoramic radiographic data in the subadult group (15-23 year) should only be based on third molar development.

  7. Age Spreads and the Temperature Dependence of Age Estimates in Upper Sco

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fang Qiliang; Herczeg, Gregory J. [Kavli Institute for Astronomy and Astrophysics, Peking University, Yiheyuan Lu 5, Haidian Qu, 100871 Beijing (China); Rizzuto, Aaron [Department of Astronomy, University of Texas, 2515 Speedway, Stop C1400, Austin, TX 78712 (United States)

    2017-06-20

    Past estimates for the age of the Upper Sco Association are typically 11–13 Myr for intermediate-mass stars and 4–5 Myr for low-mass stars. In this study, we simulate populations of young stars to investigate whether this apparent dependence of estimated age on spectral type may be explained by the star formation history of the association. Solar and intermediate mass stars begin their pre-main sequence evolution on the Hayashi track, with fully convective interiors and cool photospheres. Intermediate-mass stars quickly heat up and transition onto the radiative Henyey track. As a consequence, for clusters in which star formation occurs on a timescale similar to that of the transition from a convective to a radiative interior, discrepancies in ages will arise when ages are calculated as a function of temperature instead of mass. Simple simulations of a cluster with constant star formation over several Myr may explain about half of the difference in inferred ages versus photospheric temperature; speculative constructions that consist of a constant star formation followed by a large supernova-driven burst could fully explain the differences, including those between F and G stars where evolutionary tracks may be more accurate. The age spreads of low-mass stars predicted from these prescriptions for star formation are consistent with the observed luminosity spread of Upper Sco. The conclusion that a lengthy star formation history will yield a temperature dependence in ages is expected from the basic physics of pre-main sequence evolution, and is qualitatively robust to the large uncertainties in pre-main sequence evolutionary models.

  8. A method to estimate the ageing of a cooling tower

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnel, Nathalie; Courtois, Alexis; Ilie, Petre-Lazar

    2006-09-01

    This paper deals with cooling towers ageing. Our contribution is a method to determine which part of on site measured strain we are able to predict by means of simulations. As a result, we map a gap indicator on the structure. Calculations have been performed in three configurations. Comparing the values obtained in the three cases helps to determine which researches are worth to be done. Indeed, gap indicator reveals that: - THM can not be considered as the main and only ageing mechanism, so long as tower older than 10 years are examined. At least creep has to be taken into account too; - Gap indicator is sensitive to initial hydration conditions. Drying process before bringing into service should be estimated properly, taking into account the different construction steps; - Comparing different thermal conditions reveals that meteorological conditions have a significant influence on results. So, it will be interesting to differentiate the sunny and the shaded part of the tower when the measurements are done; - A large part of the values obtained can be explicated by construction defects. A study on this particular problematic seems to be essential. The four items mentioned must be considered as perspectives to improve the present method of simulations. (authors)

  9. Age, Sex and Stature Estimation from Footprint Dimensions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paurbhi Singh

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: The present study was carried out to evaluate the utility and reliability of footprint dimensions in age, sex and stature determination in the North Indian population. Materials and Methods: This study was carried out using a sample of 400 people (146 female and 254 male aged 10-65 years in Uttar Pradesh, North Western state of India. Footprints of both feet were taken bilaterally, and thus a total of 800 prints were obtained. A cluster of 7 measurements were taken carefully with the help of a scientific scale ruler. Five measurements were length dimensions from the most anterior part of the toe (T1–T5 to the mid rear heel point and two were breadth dimensions from both left and right footprints: breadth at ball (BBAL, breadth at heel (BHEL and 2 indexes: heel-ball Index (HBI and footprint index (FPI. All data were analyzed statistically using Student’s t-test, regression coefficient and Pearson’s correlation for the estimation of sex on the basis of footprint dimensions. Results: The T1 in left footprints was greater than right footprints in males, while T1 and BBAL were both found to be greater in left footprints than right footprints in females. All the seven foot dimensions were higher in males than females. Conclusion: There were statistically significant differences observed in all footprint dimensions between the male and female footprints except LFPI, LHBI, and RHBI.

  10. Increment of absolute neutrophil count in the third trimester and increased risk of small-for-gestational-age birth: Hirakata Risk Associated with Pregnancy Assessment Research (HIRAPAR).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harita, Nobuko; Kariya, Masatoshi; Hayashi, Tomoshige; Sato, Kyoko Kogawa; Nakamura, Kimihiko; Endo, Ginji; Narimoto, Katsuhiko

    2012-09-01

    Small-for-gestational-age (SGA) infants, who have growth restriction, have higher perinatal morbidity and mortality. Excessive inflammatory reaction such as neutrophil activation has been observed in pregnant women whose offspring had restricted fetal growth, but the association between white blood cell (WBC) counts and SGA birth has not yet been assessed. We therefore examined the association of WBC count and its change with the risk of SGA birth. We enrolled 2356 pregnant women who had full-term singleton delivery at a private maternity hospital in Hirakata, Japan. SGA was defined as under the 10th percentile of birthweight for gestational age, baby sex, and mother's parity according to the Japanese neonatal anthropometric charts renewed in 2010. Blood samples were measured in the first and third trimesters. We performed multiple logistic regression analysis to assess associations between total and differential WBC counts and SGA birth. Women with SGA birth tended to have higher total WBC count in the third trimester compared with women who did not have SGA birth. This tendency was not observed for total WBC count in the first trimester. After adjustment for age, height, body mass index at entry, smoking habit, weekly gestational weight gain, and pregnancy-induced hypertension, higher total WBC count in the third trimester was associated with an increased risk of SGA birth. Total WBC count in the first trimester did not show any significant association with SGA birth. The ratio of total WBC count in the third trimester to that in the first trimester was associated with SGA birth; the odds ratio for 1 unit increase was 3.02 (95% CI: 1.54-5.92). Regarding differential WBC counts in the third trimester, neutrophil count but not lymphocyte count was associated positively with SGA birth. Higher total WBC and absolute neutrophil counts in the third trimester were associated with SGA birth. In addition, greater ratio of increase in total WBC counts during pregnancy

  11. Estimating the formation age distribution of continental crust by unmixing zircon ages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korenaga, Jun

    2018-01-01

    Continental crust provides first-order control on Earth's surface environment, enabling the presence of stable dry landmasses surrounded by deep oceans. The evolution of continental crust is important for atmospheric evolution, because continental crust is an essential component of deep carbon cycle and is likely to have played a critical role in the oxygenation of the atmosphere. Geochemical information stored in the mineral zircon, known for its resilience to diagenesis and metamorphism, has been central to ongoing debates on the genesis and evolution of continental crust. However, correction for crustal reworking, which is the most critical step when estimating original formation ages, has been incorrectly formulated, undermining the significance of previous estimates. Here I suggest a simple yet promising approach for reworking correction using the global compilation of zircon data. The present-day distribution of crustal formation age estimated by the new "unmixing" method serves as the lower bound to the true crustal growth, and large deviations from growth models based on mantle depletion imply the important role of crustal recycling through the Earth history.

  12. Reliability of panoramic radiography in chronological age estimation

    OpenAIRE

    Makkad, Ramanpal Singh; Balani, Abhishek; Chaturvedi, Shailendra Singh; Tanwani, Tushar; Agrawal, Anil; Hamdani, Shaheen

    2013-01-01

    Introduction: There has been a strong relationship between the growth rate of bone and teeth, which can be utilized for the purpose of age identification of an individual. Aims and Objective: The present study was designed to determine the relationship between the dental age, the age from dental panoramic radiography, skeletal age, and chronological age. Materials and Methods: The study included 270 individuals, averaging between 17 years and 25 years of age from out-patient department of New...

  13. Genetic parameter estimates for growth traits at different ages in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Precise and accurate genetic parameter estimates are crucial for making sound decisions in many stages of animal improvement programme. Genetic parameter estimates for eight growth traits were determined in 308 turkeys generated from mating pure indigenous parents. PROC MIXED of SAS was used to estimate ...

  14. Age estimation based on pulp chamber volume of first molars from cone-beam computed tomography images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Zhi-pu; Ma, Ruo-han; Li, Gang; Zhang, Ji-zong; Ma, Xu-chen

    2015-08-01

    To establish a method that can be used for human age estimation on the basis of pulp chamber volume of first molars and to identify whether the method is good enough for age estimation in real human cases. CBCT images of 373 maxillary first molars and 372 mandibular first molars were collected to establish the mathematical model from 190 female and 213 male patients whose age between 12 and 69 years old. The inclusion criteria of the first molars were: no caries, no excessive tooth wear, no dental restorations, no artifacts due to metal restorative materials present in adjacent teeth, and no pulpal calcification. All the CBCT images were acquired with a CBCT unit NewTom VG (Quantitative Radiology, Verona, Italy) and reconstructed with a voxel-size of 0.15mm. The images were subsequently exported as DICOM data sets and imported into an open source 3D image semi-automatic segmenting and voxel-counting software ITK-SNAP 2.4 for the calculation of pulp chamber volumes. A logarithmic regression analysis was conducted with age as dependent variable and pulp chamber volume as independent variables to establish a mathematical model for the human age estimation. To identify the precision and accuracy of the model for human age estimation, another 104 maxillary first molars and 103 mandibular first molars from 55 female and 57 male patients whose age between 12 and 67 years old were collected, too. Mean absolute error and root mean square error between the actual age and estimated age were used to determine the precision and accuracy of the mathematical model. The study was approved by the Institutional Review Board of Peking University School and Hospital of Stomatology. A mathematical model was suggested for: AGE=117.691-26.442×ln (pulp chamber volume). The regression was statistically significant (p=0.000volume of first molar is a useful index for the estimation of human age with reasonable precision and accuracy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights

  15. Magnetic resonance imaging of the sternal extremity of the clavicle in forensic age estimation: towards more sound age estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hillewig, E; Degroote, J; Van der Paelt, T; Visscher, A; Vandemaele, P; Lutin, B; D'Hooghe, L; Vandriessche, V; Piette, M; Verstraete, K

    2013-05-01

    The development of the sternal extremity of the clavicle was examined prospectively with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for forensic bone age assessment. The objectives were to examine whether these results were comparable with the literature on plain radiography and CT, to provide age prediction intervals that correctly reflect the high variability in clavicular growth among individuals and to investigate whether MRI of the clavicle can be used to differentiate between individuals younger or older than 18 years. The clavicles of 220 volunteers (16-26 years) were examined with 3-T MRI and evaluated according to the Schmeling and Kreitner classification (Schmeling, Int J Legal Med 118:5-8, 2004; Kreitner, Eur Radiol 8:1116-1122, 1998). An additional hand/wrist radiograph was taken and evaluated according to Greulich and Pyle (1959). After a descriptive analysis, a multivariate ordinal regression model was fitted and embedded in a Bayesian framework based on Thevissen et al. (Int J Legal Med 124:35-42, 2009). The descriptive results were concordant with the literature, although the Kreitner classification is recommended and simultaneous evaluation of the hand is considered a basic requirement (Schmeling, Int J Legal Med 118:5-8, 2004). The 95 % credibility interval for both genders with bilateral stage IV is 20-26 years. The corresponding estimated probability of being younger than 18 years is 0.8 % in females and 0.2 % in males. MRI of the sternal extremity of the clavicle can be used to differentiate between being younger or older than 18, but a simultaneous evaluation of the hand/wrist is essential. Future evaluation of the predictive performance of the model, using comparable but larger reference samples, is necessary to validate these results.

  16. Absolute nuclear material assay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasad, Manoj K [Pleasanton, CA; Snyderman, Neal J [Berkeley, CA; Rowland, Mark S [Alamo, CA

    2010-07-13

    A method of absolute nuclear material assay of an unknown source comprising counting neutrons from the unknown source and providing an absolute nuclear material assay utilizing a model to optimally compare to the measured count distributions. In one embodiment, the step of providing an absolute nuclear material assay comprises utilizing a random sampling of analytically computed fission chain distributions to generate a continuous time-evolving sequence of event-counts by spreading the fission chain distribution in time.

  17. Absolute nuclear material assay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasad, Manoj K [Pleasanton, CA; Snyderman, Neal J [Berkeley, CA; Rowland, Mark S [Alamo, CA

    2012-05-15

    A method of absolute nuclear material assay of an unknown source comprising counting neutrons from the unknown source and providing an absolute nuclear material assay utilizing a model to optimally compare to the measured count distributions. In one embodiment, the step of providing an absolute nuclear material assay comprises utilizing a random sampling of analytically computed fission chain distributions to generate a continuous time-evolving sequence of event-counts by spreading the fission chain distribution in time.

  18. Age estimation based on Willems method versus new country-specific method in South African black children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willems, Guy; Lee, Sang-Seob; Uys, Andre; Bernitz, Herman; Cadenas de Llano-Pérula, Maria; Fieuws, Steffen; Thevissen, Patrick

    2018-03-01

    The aims of our study were to develop new maturity scores for dental age estimation in South African black children according to the Willems method, which was developed based on Belgian Caucasian (BC) reference data (Willems et al. J Forensic Sci 46(4):893-895, 2001), and to compare age prediction performance of both methods. A total of 986 panoramic radiographs of healthy South African black (SAB) children (493 males and 493 females) in the age range of 4.14 to 14.99 years (mean age 10.06 years) were selected for obtaining developmental staging scores (according to Demirjian et al. Hum Biol 45(2):211-227, 1973). Willems BC methodology was applied to develop new country-specific maturity scores (Willems SAB). Age prediction performance of Willems BC and Willems SAB was compared. On average, Willems BC renders acceptable results with an overestimation of chronological age of 0.06 years (SD 0.88 years) in SAB children. Compared to Willems SAB, the overall mean absolute error was slightly higher with Willems BC (0.62 and 0.68 years, respectively), but this was not significant in males. Also, the root mean squared error was marginally higher in Willems BC. The new age prediction method developed in South African black children was found to be better compared to Willems BC, although the difference seems to be small and clinically not relevant, especially in males.

  19. MEAN OF MEDIAN ABSOLUTE DERIVATION TECHNIQUE MEAN ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    eobe

    The accurate estimation of noise variance in an image is the first important stage ... lung image was lung image was developed. developed. developed. The development of mean of median absolute derivation technique development of mean of median absolute .... that are non-real numbers during initial processing.

  20. Aspartic acid racemization in dentin of the third molar for age estimation of the Chaoshan population in South China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shisheng; Lv, Yanyi; Wang, Dian; Yu, Xiaojun

    2016-09-01

    Aspartic acid racemization in teeth has been increasingly used to estimate chronological age with a considerably high accuracy in forensic practice. The Chaoshan population in South China is relatively isolated in geography, and has specific lifestyle and dietary inhibits. It is still unknown whether this method is suitable for this population. The aim of this study was to analyze the relationship between chronological age and the d/l aspartic acid ratio in dentin in the third molar tooth of the Chaoshan population. Fifty-eight non-carious third molar teeth (31 mandibles and 27 maxillae), from 58 living individuals of known age (24 males and 34 females), were retrieved. Dentin was extracted from these teeth. The d- and l-aspartic acids in dentins were separated and detected by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Linear regression was performed between the d/l aspartic acid ratio of dentins and chronological age. Results showed that the correlation coefficient (r) was 0.969, and the mean absolute error (MAE) was 2.19 years, its standard deviation (SD) was ±1.53 years, indicating excellent correlation. There was no significant difference in racemization rates of dentin between sexes (P=0.113, F=2.6), or between mandibles and maxillae (P=0.964, F=0.000). Results indicate that the ratio of the d and l forms of aspartic acid of dentins, in the third molar, is closely correlated with chronological age, special lifestyle do no obviously affect the accuracy of the age estimations by aspartic acid racemization of the dentin in the third molar and that aspartic acid racemization in the third molar dentin can be used as an accurate method to estimate chronological age in the Chaoshan population in South China. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Statistical Estimation of the Age of the Universe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Jørgen Holm

    The Hubble constant enters big bang cosmology by quantifying the expansion rate of the universe. It is shown that the standard technique for estimation of Hubble's constant is statistically inconsistent and results in a systematically too low value. An alternative, consistent estimator of Hubble’s...

  2. Statistical Estimation of the Age of the Universe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Jørgen Holm

    The Hubble constant enters big bang cosmology by quantifying the expansion rate of the universe. It is shown that the standard technique for estimation of Hubble's constant is statistically inconsistent and results in a systematically too low value. An alternative, consistent estimator of Hubble...

  3. ABSOLUTE NEUTRINO MASSES

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schechter, J.; Shahid, M. N.

    2012-01-01

    We discuss the possibility of using experiments timing the propagation of neutrino beams over large distances to help determine the absolute masses of the three neutrinos.......We discuss the possibility of using experiments timing the propagation of neutrino beams over large distances to help determine the absolute masses of the three neutrinos....

  4. Secondary dentine as a sole parameter for age estimation: Comparison and reliability of qualitative and quantitative methods among North Western adult Indians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jasbir Arora

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The indestructible nature of teeth against most of the environmental abuses makes its use in disaster victim identification (DVI. The present study has been undertaken to examine the reliability of Gustafson’s qualitative method and Kedici’s quantitative method of measuring secondary dentine for age estimation among North Western adult Indians. 196 (M = 85; F = 111 single rooted teeth were collected from the Department of Oral Health Sciences, PGIMER, Chandigarh. Ground sections were prepared and the amount of secondary dentine formed was scored qualitatively according to Gustafson’s (0–3 scoring system (method 1 and quantitatively following Kedici’s micrometric measurement method (method 2. Out of 196 teeth 180 samples (M = 80; F = 100 were found to be suitable for measuring secondary dentine following Kedici’s method. Absolute mean error of age was calculated by both methodologies. Results clearly showed that in pooled data, method 1 gave an error of ±10.4 years whereas method 2 exhibited an error of approximately ±13 years. A statistically significant difference was noted in absolute mean error of age between two methods of measuring secondary dentine for age estimation. Further, it was also revealed that teeth extracted for periodontal reasons severely decreased the accuracy of Kedici’s method however, the disease had no effect while estimating age by Gustafson’s method. No significant gender differences were noted in the absolute mean error of age by both methods which suggest that there is no need to separate data on the basis of gender.

  5. 75 FR 4343 - Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-27

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Office of the Secretary Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2009 AGENCY: Office of the Secretary, Commerce. ACTION: General Notice Announcing Population Estimates. SUMMARY: This notice announces the voting age population estimates as of July 1, 2009, for each state and...

  6. 76 FR 37314 - Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-27

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Office of the Secretary Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2010 AGENCY: Office of the Secretary, Commerce. ACTION: General Notice Announcing Population Estimates. SUMMARY: This notice announces the voting age population estimates as of July 1, 2010, for each state and...

  7. 77 FR 4000 - Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-26

    ... DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Office of the Secretary Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2011 AGENCY: Office of the Secretary, Commerce. ACTION: General Notice Announcing Population Estimates. SUMMARY: This notice announces the voting age population estimates as of July 1, 2011, for each state and...

  8. Automatic age and gaze estimation under uncontrolled conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alnajar, F.

    2016-01-01

    Can the computer learn a person’s age just from analyzing facial images obtained by a simple webcam? If so, you can automatically determine if a person has the right age to buy beer (shops), to use a credit card (retail), and can enter bars (entertainment). Can the computer automatically recognize

  9. Estimation of embrittlement during aging of AISI 316 stainless steel ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Unknown

    123 K in all tests performed. The influence of parameters viz. aging temperature, aging time and nitrogen content, on the LSE are shown in figures 3 and 4. Though USE values were also affected by these parameters in a similar way, only LSE values are of relevance as the toughness of the material is decided by the level of ...

  10. Age estimation by 3D CT-scans of the Borremose Woman, a Danish bog body

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Villa, Chiara; Møller Rasmussen, Maria; Lynnerup, Niels

    2011-01-01

    Non-invasive estimation of age at death has been carried out by using 3D CT scanning of a bog body discovered in 1948 in a peat bog in Borremose (Denmark). The bog body has been dated to the 8th century BC, in the last part of the Bronze Age. The skeletal structures useful for age estimation have...

  11. Estimating the age of Heliconius butterflies from calibrated photographs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denise Dalbosco Dell’Aglio

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Mating behaviour and predation avoidance in Heliconius involve visual colour signals; however, there is considerable inter-individual phenotypic variation in the appearance of colours. In particular, the red pigment varies from bright crimson to faded red. It has been thought that this variation is primarily due to pigment fading with age, although this has not been explicitly tested. Previous studies have shown the importance of red patterns in mate choice and that birds and butterflies might perceive these small colour differences. Using digital photography and calibrated colour images, we investigated whether the hue variation in the forewing dorsal red band of Heliconius melpomene rosina corresponds with age. We found that the red hue and age were highly associated, suggesting that red colour can indeed be used as a proxy for age in the study of wild-caught butterflies.

  12. Age estimation of Malawian adults from dental radiographs | Igbigbi ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Introduction: Des tudes prcdentes avaient montr qu'avec des dveloppements la dimension de la cavit du pulpe dentaire est en baisse la suite du prcipite dentine secondaire, pour pouvoir utiliser les mesurage de cette rduction comme un indicateur d'ge. Estimation d'ge est l'un des indicateurs utiliss dans l'identication lgale ...

  13. Estimates of age, growth and mortality of spotted catfish, Arius ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Spotted catfish is a benthic species that can be found abundantly off the coast of Yunlin in southwestern Taiwan. Its biological parameters are little known. In this study, life history parameters of this species were estimated using samples caught by bottom trawling. The spotted catfish was the major bycatch species which ...

  14. Assessment of Demirjian's 8-teeth technique of age estimation and Indian-specific formulas in an East Indian population: A cross-sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rath, Hemamalini; Rath, Rachna; Mahapatra, Sandeep; Debta, Tribikram

    2017-01-01

    The age of an individual can be assessed by a plethora of widely available tooth-based techniques, among which radiological methods prevail. The Demirjian's technique of age assessment based on tooth development stages has been extensively investigated in different populations of the world. The present study is to assess the applicability of Demirjian's modified 8-teeth technique in age estimation of population of East India (Odisha), utilizing Acharya's Indian-specific cubic functions. One hundred and six pretreatment orthodontic radiographs of patients in an age group of 7-23 years with representation from both genders were assessed for eight left mandibular teeth and scored as per the Demirjian's 9-stage criteria for teeth development stages. Age was calculated on the basis of Acharya's Indian formula. Statistical analysis was performed to compare the estimated and actual age. All data were analyzed using SPSS 20.0 (SPSS Inc., Chicago, Illinois, USA) and MS Excel Package. The results revealed that the mean absolute error (MAE) in age estimation of the entire sample was 1.3 years with 50% of the cases having an error rate within ± 1 year. The MAE in males and females (7-16 years) was 1.8 and 1.5, respectively. Likewise, the MAE in males and females (16.1-23 years) was 1.1 and 1.3, respectively. The low error rate in estimating age justifies the application of this modified technique and Acharya's Indian formulas in the present East Indian population.

  15. Limitations of backward integration method for asteroid family age estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radović, Viktor

    2017-10-01

    Determining the age of an asteroid family is important as it gives us a better understanding of the dynamics, formation and collisional evolution of a family. So far, a few methods for determining the age of a family have been developed. The most accurate one is probably the backward integration method (BIM) that works very well for young families. In this paper, we try to study its characteristics and limitations in more detail using a fictional asteroid family. The analysis is performed with two numerical packages: orbfit and mercury. We studied the clustering of the secular angles Ω and ϖ and obtained linear relationship between the depth of the clustering and the age of the family. Our results suggest that the BIM could be successfully applied only to families not older than 18 Myr.

  16. NGS Absolute Gravity Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NGS Absolute Gravity data (78 stations) was received in July 1993. Principal gravity parameters include Gravity Value, Uncertainty, and Vertical Gradient. The...

  17. The ossification pattern in paediatric occipito-cervical spine: is it possible to estimate real age?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, H J; Kim, J T; Shin, M H; Choi, D Y; Park, Y S; Hong, J T

    2015-08-01

    To retrospectively analyse the synchondrosis from the occipital bone to the whole cervical spine and determine the feasibility and validity of age estimation using computed tomography (CT) images. A total of 231 cervical spine or neck CT images of young children (chart was used to estimate the age of 10 new cases in order to confirm the usefulness of the chart. Infancy was easily estimated using the sub-axial or C2 posterior ossification centres, while the posterior occipital regions provided good estimation of age between 1-2 years. The most difficult period for accurate age estimation was between 2-4 years. However, the C2 anterior (neurocentral ossification) and C1 posterior regions did yield information to help determine the age around 3 years. The anterior occipital region was useful for age estimation between 4-5 years, and the C1-anterior region was potentially useful to help decide among the other parameters. The test for age estimation (TAE) had a very high ICC score (0.973) among the three observers. Segmentalised analysis can enhance the ability to estimate real age, at least by the year. The analysis of the occipital bone made a strong contribution to the usefulness of the chorological chart. An organised chronological chart can provide readily available information for age estimation, and the primary application of the above data (TAE) demonstrated the validity of this approach. Copyright © 2015 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Comparison of the effectiveness of phalanges vs. humeri and femurs to estimate lizard age with skeletochronology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Comas, M.; Reguera, S.; Zamora-Camacho, F.J.; Salvado, H.; Moreno-Rueda, G.

    2016-07-01

    Skeletochronology allows estimation of lizard age with a single capture (from a bone), making long–term monitoring unnecessary. Nevertheless, this method often involves the death of the animal to obtain the bone. We tested the reliability of skeletochronology of phalanges (which may be obtained without killing) by comparing the estimated age from femurs and humeri with the age estimated from phalanges. Our results show skeletochronology of phalanges is a reliable method to estimate age in lizards as cross–section readings from all bones studied presented a high correlation and repeatability regardless of the bone chosen. This approach provides an alternative to the killing of lizards for skeletochronology studies. (Author)

  19. Decoherence at absolute zero

    OpenAIRE

    Sinha, Supurna

    2005-01-01

    We present an analytical study of the loss of quantum coherence at absolute zero. Our model consists of a harmonic oscillator coupled to an environment of harmonic oscillators at absolute zero. We find that for an Ohmic bath, the offdiagonal elements of the density matrix in the position representation decay as a power law in time at late times. This slow loss of coherence in the quantum domain is qualitatively different from the exponential decay observed in studies of high temperature envir...

  20. Distribution of Estimated Stand Age Across Siberian Larch Forests, 1989-2012

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set provides mapped estimates of the stand age of young (less than 25 years old) larch forests across Siberia from 1989-2012 at 30-m resolution. The age...

  1. Distribution of Young Forests and Estimated Stand Age across Russia, 2012

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set provides the distribution of young forests (forests less than 27 years of age) and their estimated stand ages across the full extent of Russia at 500-m...

  2. Postnatal growth, age estimation and development of foraging ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Unknown

    growth after the first year (Kunz and Stern 1995). The values of the lengths of forearm and epiphyseal gap dur- ing their linear phases of growth increased during the preflight period and decreased during the postflight period, and were reliable for deriving equations to esti- mate the age of young bats (e.g. Kunz and Robson ...

  3. Can anchovy age structure be estimated from length distribution ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The analysis provides a new time-series of proportions-at-age 1, together with associated standard errors, for input into assessments of the resource. The results also caution against the danger of scientists reading more information into data than is really there. Keywords: anchovy, effective sample size, length distribution, ...

  4. Validity of the Demirjian method for dental age estimation for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2015-02-04

    Feb 4, 2015 ... French‑Canadian children; it has become the most widely used dental age examination method all over the world. Numerous studies have tested the applicability of this method in various population, including Australian,[6] Brazilian,[7]. British,[8,9] Caucasian American,[10] Chinese,[8,11] Dutch,[1]. Malay ...

  5. An automated technique to stage lower third molar development on panoramic radiographs for age estimation: a pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Tobel, J; Radesh, P; Vandermeulen, D; Thevissen, P W

    2017-12-01

    Automated methods to evaluate growth of hand and wrist bones on radiographs and magnetic resonance imaging have been developed. They can be applied to estimate age in children and subadults. Automated methods require the software to (1) recognise the region of interest in the image(s), (2) evaluate the degree of development and (3) correlate this to the age of the subject based on a reference population. For age estimation based on third molars an automated method for step (1) has been presented for 3D magnetic resonance imaging and is currently being optimised (Unterpirker et al. 2015). To develop an automated method for step (2) based on lower third molars on panoramic radiographs. A modified Demirjian staging technique including ten developmental stages was developed. Twenty panoramic radiographs per stage per gender were retrospectively selected for FDI element 38. Two observers decided in consensus about the stages. When necessary, a third observer acted as a referee to establish the reference stage for the considered third molar. This set of radiographs was used as training data for machine learning algorithms for automated staging. First, image contrast settings were optimised to evaluate the third molar of interest and a rectangular bounding box was placed around it in a standardised way using Adobe Photoshop CC 2017 software. This bounding box indicated the region of interest for the next step. Second, several machine learning algorithms available in MATLAB R2017a software were applied for automated stage recognition. Third, the classification performance was evaluated in a 5-fold cross-validation scenario, using different validation metrics (accuracy, Rank-N recognition rate, mean absolute difference, linear kappa coefficient). Transfer Learning as a type of Deep Learning Convolutional Neural Network approach outperformed all other tested approaches. Mean accuracy equalled 0.51, mean absolute difference was 0.6 stages and mean linearly weighted kappa was

  6. Age Estimation of African Lions Panthera leo by Ratio of Tooth Areas.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paula A White

    Full Text Available Improved age estimation of African lions Panthera leo is needed to address a number of pressing conservation issues. Here we present a formula for estimating lion age to within six months of known age based on measuring the extent of pulp closure from X-rays, or Ratio Of tooth AReas (ROAR. Derived from measurements taken from lions aged 3-13 years for which exact ages were known, the formula explains 92% of the total variance. The method of calculating the pulp/tooth area ratio, which has been used extensively in forensic science, is novel in the study of lion aging. As a quantifiable measure, ROAR offers improved lion age estimates for population modeling and investigations of age-related mortality, and may assist national and international wildlife authorities in judging compliance with regulatory measures involving age.

  7. Age Estimation of African Lions Panthera leo by Ratio of Tooth Areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Paula A; Ikanda, Dennis; Ferrante, Luigi; Chardonnet, Philippe; Mesochina, Pascal; Cameriere, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Improved age estimation of African lions Panthera leo is needed to address a number of pressing conservation issues. Here we present a formula for estimating lion age to within six months of known age based on measuring the extent of pulp closure from X-rays, or Ratio Of tooth AReas (ROAR). Derived from measurements taken from lions aged 3-13 years for which exact ages were known, the formula explains 92% of the total variance. The method of calculating the pulp/tooth area ratio, which has been used extensively in forensic science, is novel in the study of lion aging. As a quantifiable measure, ROAR offers improved lion age estimates for population modeling and investigations of age-related mortality, and may assist national and international wildlife authorities in judging compliance with regulatory measures involving age.

  8. Age estimation by facial analysis based on applications available for smartphones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rezende Machado, A L; Dezem, T U; Bruni, A T; Alves da Silva, R H

    2017-12-01

    Forensic Dentistry has an important role in the human identification cases and, among the analyses that can be performed, age estimation has an important value in establishing an anthropological profile. Modern technology invests for new mechanisms of age estimation: software apps, based on special algorithms, because there is not interference based on personal knowledge, cultural and personal experiences for facial recognition. This research evaluated the use of two different apps: "How Old Do I Look? - Age Camera" and "How Old Am I? - Age Camera, Do You Look Like in Selfie Face Pic?", for age estimation analysis in a sample of 100 people (50 females and 50 males). Univariate and multivariate statistical methods were used to evaluate data. A great reliability was seen when used for the male volunteers. However, for females, no equivalence was found between the real age and the estimated age. These applications presented satisfactory results as an auxiliary method, in male images.

  9. The effects of racemization rate for age estimation of pink teeth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakuma, Ayaka; Saitoh, Hisako; Ishii, Namiko; Iwase, Hirotaro

    2015-03-01

    Pink teeth is thought to result from the seepage of hemoglobin caused by dental pulp decomposition. We investigated whether racemization can be applied for age estimation in cases of pink teeth where the whole tooth is used. The pink teeth used were three cases and the normal teeth for control were five mandibular canines of known age. Age of the pink teeth was calculated on the basis of regression formula obtained from the five control teeth. Only a slight error was noted between the actual and estimated ages of the pink teeth (R(2) = 0.980, r = 0.990): Cases 1-3 actually aged 23, 53, and 59 years were estimated to be 26, 52, and 60 years. Based on our results of testing pink teeth of known age, we suggest that racemization techniques allow for the age estimation of pink teeth using the same methods for normally colored teeth. © 2015 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  10. Thermoluminescence and new 14C age estimates for late quaternary loesses in southwestern Nebraska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maat, P.B.; Johnson, W.C.

    1996-01-01

    Loess of late Quaternary age mantles most of Nebraska south of the Platte River Valley. At least five late Quaternary loesses are recognized: from oldest to youngest, one or more undifferentiated pre-lllinoian loesses, the Loveland Loess, the Gilman Canyon Loess, which exhibits a well developed soil and rests unconformably on the Sangamon soil, the Peoria Loess capped by the Brady soil, and the Bignell Loess, which is distributed discontinuously. Previous research shows that the Loveland Loess is Illinoian. the Gilman Canyon Loess and Peoria Loess are Wisconsin, and the Bignell Loess is Holocene. We present here the first thermoluminescence (TL) age estimates and new C ages for these late Quaternary loesses at two key sections in southwestern Nebraska, the Eustis ash pit and the Bignell Hill road cut. TL age estimates from all samples collected from Eustis ash pit and Bignell Hill were internally consistent. TL and C age estimates from these two sections generally agree and support previous age determinations. The TL age estimate on Loveland Loess indicates deposition at 163 ka. TL and radiocarbon age estimates indicate that Oilman Canyon Loess, believed to be deposited during the Farmdale interstade, first began to accumulate at about 40 ka: the lower part of the Gilman Canyon Loess is 36 ka at Eustis and the middle of the unit is 30 ka at Bignell Hill. The lower and upper parts of the Peoria Loess give age estimates of 24 ka and 17 ka, respectively. TL age estimates for deposition of the Bignell Loess are 9 ka near the base, in agreement with radiocarbon age estimates, and 6 ka immediately below the modern soil, substantiating its Holocene age. Comparisons of TL age estimates with ??18O and insolation curves which show loess deposition during interglacial and interstadial as well as glacial periods, indicate that loess deposition on the Great Plains can occur under a variety of climatic conditions.

  11. Evaluation of the Applicability of Different Age Determination Methods for Estimating Age of the Endangered African Wild Dog (Lycaon Pictus.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moreangels M Mbizah

    Full Text Available African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus are endangered and their population continues to decline throughout their range. Given their conservation status, more research focused on their population dynamics, population growth and age specific mortality is needed and this requires reliable estimates of age and age of mortality. Various age determination methods from teeth and skull measurements have been applied in numerous studies and it is fundamental to test the validity of these methods and their applicability to different species. In this study we assessed the accuracy of estimating chronological age and age class of African wild dogs, from dental age measured by (i counting cementum annuli (ii pulp cavity/tooth width ratio, (iii tooth wear (measured by tooth crown height (iv tooth wear (measured by tooth crown width/crown height ratio (v tooth weight and (vi skull measurements (length, width and height. A sample of 29 African wild dog skulls, from opportunistically located carcasses was analysed. Linear and ordinal regression analysis was done to investigate the performance of each of the six age determination methods in predicting wild dog chronological age and age class. Counting cementum annuli was the most accurate method for estimating chronological age of wild dogs with a 79% predictive capacity, while pulp cavity/tooth width ratio was also a reliable method with a 68% predictive capacity. Counting cementum annuli and pulp cavity/tooth width ratio were again the most accurate methods for separating wild dogs into three age classes (6-24 months; 25-60 months and > 60 months, with a McFadden's Pseudo-R2 of 0.705 and 0.412 respectively. The use of the cementum annuli method is recommended when estimating age of wild dogs since it is the most reliable method. However, its use is limited as it requires tooth extraction and shipping, is time consuming and expensive, and is not applicable to living individuals. Pulp cavity/tooth width ratio is a

  12. Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: does model choice affect survival estimates?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Troy W Grovenburg

    Full Text Available New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001-2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i

  13. Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: does model choice affect survival estimates?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grovenburg, Troy W; Monteith, Kevin L; Jacques, Christopher N; Klaver, Robert W; DePerno, Christopher S; Brinkman, Todd J; Monteith, Kyle B; Gilbert, Sophie L; Smith, Joshua B; Bleich, Vernon C; Swanson, Christopher C; Jenks, Jonathan A

    2014-01-01

    New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001-2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

  14. Hyperspectral imaging for the age estimation of blood stains at the crime scene

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Edelman, Gerda; van Leeuwen, Ton G.; Aalders, Maurice C. G.

    2012-01-01

    The age estimation of blood stains can provide important information on the temporal aspects of a crime. As previously shown, visible spectroscopy of blood stains can successfully be used for their age estimation. In the present study we evaluated the feasibility to use hyperspectral imaging for

  15. 78 FR 6289 - Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-30

    ..., United States Code, Section 441a(e), I hereby give notice that the estimates of the voting age population... Population Area Population 18 and Area 18 and over over United States 240,185,952 Alabama 3,697,617 Alaska... voting age population estimates as of July 1, 2012, for each state and the District of Columbia. We are...

  16. Elevated estimated arterial age is associated with metabolic syndrome and low-grade inflammation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Greve, Sara V; Blicher, Marie K; Kruger, Ruan

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Arterial age can be estimated from equations relating arterial stiffness to age and blood pressure in large cohorts. We investigated whether estimated arterial age (eAA) was elevated in patients with the metabolic syndrome and/or known cardiovascular disease (CVD), which factors were...... of metabolic syndrome, Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation, or Framingham risk score. From age, mean blood pressure, and cfPWV, eAA and estimated cfPWV (ePWV) were calculated. In 2006, the combined cardiovascular endpoint (CEP) of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke...

  17. Usefulness of telomere length in DNA from human teeth for age estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Márquez-Ruiz, Ana Belén; González-Herrera, Lucas; Valenzuela, Aurora

    2018-03-01

    Age estimation is widely used to identify individuals in forensic medicine. However, the accuracy of the most commonly used procedures is markedly reduced in adulthood, and these methods cannot be applied in practice when morphological information is limited. Molecular methods for age estimation have been extensively developed in the last few years. The fact that telomeres shorten at each round of cell division has led to the hypothesis that telomere length can be used as a tool to predict age. The present study thus aimed to assess the correlation between telomere length measured in dental DNA and age, and the effect of sex and tooth type on telomere length; a further aim was to propose a statistical regression model to estimate the biological age based on telomere length. DNA was extracted from 91 tooth samples belonging to 77 individuals of both sexes and 15 to 85 years old and was used to determine telomere length by quantitative real-time PCR. Our results suggested that telomere length was not affected by sex and was greater in molar teeth. We found a significant correlation between age and telomere length measured in DNA from teeth. However, the equation proposed to predict age was not accurate enough for forensic age estimation on its own. Age estimation based on telomere length in DNA from tooth samples may be useful as a complementary method which provides an approximate estimate of age, especially when human skeletal remains are the only forensic sample available.

  18. The ossification pattern in paediatric occipito-cervical spine: is it possible to estimate real age?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, H.J.; Kim, J.T.; Shin, M.H.; Choi, D.Y.; Park, Y.S.; Hong, J.T.

    2015-01-01

    Aim: To retrospectively analyse the synchondrosis from the occipital bone to the whole cervical spine and determine the feasibility and validity of age estimation using computed tomography (CT) images. Material and methods: A total of 231 cervical spine or neck CT images of young children (<7 years of age) were examined. Twelve ossification centres were assessed (occiput: n = 2; atlas: n = 2; axis, n = 6; whole sub-axial vertebra: n = 2), and the ossification process was graded as open (O, fully lucent), osseous bridging (B, partially ossified), and fusion (F, totally ossified). After the first analysis was completed, the resulting chronological chart was used to estimate the age of 10 new cases in order to confirm the usefulness of the chart. Results: Infancy was easily estimated using the sub-axial or C2 posterior ossification centres, while the posterior occipital regions provided good estimation of age between 1–2 years. The most difficult period for accurate age estimation was between 2–4 years. However, the C2 anterior (neurocentral ossification) and C1 posterior regions did yield information to help determine the age around 3 years. The anterior occipital region was useful for age estimation between 4–5 years, and the C1-anterior region was potentially useful to help decide among the other parameters. The test for age estimation (TAE) had a very high ICC score (0.973) among the three observers. Conclusion: Segmentalised analysis can enhance the ability to estimate real age, at least by the year. The analysis of the occipital bone made a strong contribution to the usefulness of the chorological chart. An organised chronological chart can provide readily available information for age estimation, and the primary application of the above data (TAE) demonstrated the validity of this approach. -- Highlights: •Subaxial or C2 posterior regions was useful for age estimation between 0–1 year. •Posterior occipital regions provided good estimation of

  19. The absolute environmental performance of buildings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brejnrod, Kathrine Nykjær; Kalbar, Pradip; Petersen, Steffen

    2017-01-01

    sustainability for the standard house were proposed focusing on three measures: minimizing environmental impacts from building construction, minimizing impacts from energy consumption during use phase, and reducing the living area per person. In an intermediate path, absolute sustainability can be obtained...... by reducing the impacts from construction by 89%, use phase energy consumption by 80%, and the living area by 60%.......Our paper presents a novel approach for absolute sustainability assessment of a building's environmental performance. It is demonstrated how the absolute sustainable share of the earth carrying capacity of a specific building type can be estimated using carrying capacity based normalization factors...

  20. Obtaining appropriate interval estimates for age when multiple indicators are used

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fieuws, Steffen; Willems, Guy; Larsen, Sara Tangmose

    2016-01-01

    When an estimate of age is needed, typically multiple indicators are present as found in skeletal or dental information. There exists a vast literature on approaches to estimate age from such multivariate data. Application of Bayes' rule has been proposed to overcome drawbacks of classical regres...... the need for interval estimation. To illustrate and evaluate the method, Köhler et al. (1995) third molar scores are used to estimate the age in a dataset of 3200 male subjects in the juvenile age range.......When an estimate of age is needed, typically multiple indicators are present as found in skeletal or dental information. There exists a vast literature on approaches to estimate age from such multivariate data. Application of Bayes' rule has been proposed to overcome drawbacks of classical...... regression models but becomes less trivial as soon as the number of indicators increases. Each of the age indicators can lead to a different point estimate ("the most plausible value for age") and a prediction interval ("the range of possible values"). The major challenge in the combination of multiple...

  1. Accuracy of an equation for estimating age from mandibular third molar development in a Thai population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verochana, Karune; Prapayasatok, Sangsom; Janhom, Apirum; Mahasantipiya, Phattaranant May; Korwanich, Narumanas

    2016-03-01

    This study assessed the accuracy of age estimates produced by a regression equation derived from lower third molar development in a Thai population. The first part of this study relied on measurements taken from panoramic radiographs of 614 Thai patients aged from 9 to 20. The stage of lower left and right third molar development was observed in each radiograph and a modified Gat score was assigned. Linear regression on this data produced the following equation: Y=9.309+1.673 mG+0.303S (Y=age; mG=modified Gat score; S=sex). In the second part of this study, the predictive accuracy of this equation was evaluated using data from a second set of panoramic radiographs (539 Thai subjects, 9 to 24 years old). Each subject's age was estimated using the above equation and compared against age calculated from a provided date of birth. Estimated and known age data were analyzed using the Pearson correlation coefficient and descriptive statistics. Ages estimated from lower left and lower right third molar development stage were significantly correlated with the known ages (r=0.818, 0.808, respectively, P≤0.01). 50% of age estimates in the second part of the study fell within a range of error of ±1 year, while 75% fell within a range of error of ±2 years. The study found that the equation tends to estimate age accurately when individuals are 9 to 20 years of age. The equation can be used for age estimation for Thai populations when the individuals are 9 to 20 years of age.

  2. Ascertaining year of birth/age at death in forensic cases: A review of conventional methods and methods allowing for absolute chronology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lynnerup, Niels; Kjeldsen, H; Zweihoff, R

    2010-01-01

    Based on an actual case, where we were able to ascertain the year of birth of three dead babies found in a deep-freezer to within 1–2 years (1986, 1988 and 2004, respectively), we review the current state of forensic age determination/year of birth determination. The age of an individual (year...... of birth) is often a fundamental piece of data in connection with forensic identification of unidentified bodies. The methods most often used are based on determining various morphological, age-related, changes on the skeleton (or teeth, although odontological methods are not reviewed in this paper...

  3. Dental cementum in age estimation: a polarized light and stereomicroscopic study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasetty, Sowmya; Rammanohar, M; Raju Ragavendra, T

    2010-05-01

    Dental hard tissues are good candidates for age estimation as they are less destructive and procedures to determine age can be easily performed. Although cementum annulations and cementum thickness are important parameters in this regard, they are seldom used. This study was undertaken to review the methods, difficulties in execution of techniques, and accuracy of cementum thickness and annulations in estimating the age. Unstained and stained ground sections of tooth were used to measure cemental thickness and count cemental annulations based on which age was estimated and was compared with known age. Although there was positive relation between cemental thickness and annulations with age, only in 1-1.5% of cases, age could be predicted with accuracy.

  4. Validity Comparison of Three Dental Methods for Age Estimation Based on Tooth Root Translucency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santoro, Valeria; Fiandaca, Chiara; Roca, Roberta; Marini, Chiara; De Donno, Antonio; Introna, Francesco

    2015-09-01

    Age estimation of nonliving subjects plays a very important role in identifying human remains. When adult remains are in question, this process becomes even more complex. Among the numerous dental methods that exist for adults aging, the evaluation of root translucency is one of the most useful. This study studies the correlation between age and root translucency by investigating monoradicular teeth affected by pathological processes using the equations proposed by Lamendin, Prince & Ubelaker and from Singhal et al. The average age values calculated according to the three methods were compared with the values of known age. Age estimation using the Student's t-test resulted as more accurate in the methods by Singhal et al. and by Prince & Ubelaker, with respect to that of Lamendin. Age estimation based solely on the percentage of radicular dentinal translucency has been found to be more accurate when diseased teeth are involved. © 2015 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  5. Estimation of age structure of fish populations from length-frequency data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumar, K.D.; Adams, S.M.

    1977-01-01

    A probability model is presented to determine the age structure of a fish population from length-frequency data. It is shown that when the age-length key is available, maximum-likelihood estimates of the age structure can be obtained. When the key is not available, approximate estimates of the age structure can be obtained. The model is used for determination of the age structure of populations of channel catfish and white crappie. Practical applications of the model to impact assessment are discussed

  6. Approach to Absolute Zero

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 2; Issue 6. Approach to Absolute Zero 0.3 K. to a Few Milli-Kelvin. R Srinivasan. Series Article Volume 2 Issue 6 June 1997 pp 6-14. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link: http://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/reso/002/06/0006-0014 ...

  7. Approach to Absolute Zero

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 2; Issue 2. Approach to Absolute Zero From 4. 22 K. to 0. 3 K. R Srinivasan. Series Article Volume 2 Issue 2 February 1997 pp 8-16. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link: http://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/reso/002/02/0008-0016 ...

  8. Approach to Absolute Zero

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 2; Issue 10. Approach to Absolute Zero Below 10 milli-Kelvin. R Srinivasan. Series Article Volume 2 Issue 10 October 1997 pp 8-16. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link: http://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/reso/002/10/0008-0016 ...

  9. Approach to Absolute Zero

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 2; Issue 10. Approach to Absolute Zero Below 10 milli-Kelvin. R Srinivasan. Series Article Volume 2 Issue 10 October 1997 pp 8-16. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link: https://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/reso/002/10/0008-0016 ...

  10. Evaluation of Cases Admitted for Age Estimation to Forensic Medicine Department Between 2006 and 2010 Years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Yildirim

    2011-06-01

    Conclusion: In conclusion age determination continues to be one of the important issues of forensic medicine. In cases of age determination, more accurate estimates can be accomplished when radiologically determined age is considered in conjunction with clinical findings such as dental, mental, and psychologic development. [J Contemp Med 2011; 1(2.000: 56-61

  11. Size-based estimation of the status of fish stocks: simulation analysis and comparison with age-based estimations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kokkalis, Alexandros; Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro; Nielsen, Anders

    is linked to physiology more directly than is age, and can be measured easier with less cost. In this work we used a single-species size-based model to estimate the fishing mortality (F) and the status of the stock, quantified by the ratio F/Fmsy between actual fishing mortality and the fishing mortality...

  12. Willems method of dental age estimation in children: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sehrawat, J S; Singh, Monika

    2017-11-01

    Age estimation from dental developmental stages is considered comparatively more accurate, reliable and precise than other methods used in forensic sciences. Willems method is the revised version of Demirjian method, based on modified dental maturity scores to estimate age of children in years for both the sexes. To test the applicability and accuracy level of Willems method of dental age estimation in diverse population samples by quantifying the variations between the chronological and estimated ages of an individual. A systematic search of online databases (Pubmed, Scopus, Embase, Medline, Trip and Web of Science) was performed for identifying the articles utilizing Willems dental maturity scaling method for age estimation in children. All the research articles published in peer-reviewed English language journals between 2001 and January 2017 were included for present systematic review and meta-analysis. Out of the total 973 selected articles; thirty one studies were recruited for qualitative analysis and out of them, 15 studies were selected/identified for quantitative and meta-analysis. It was found that Willems method overestimates the age of children to a comparatively lesser extent (-0.04 and -0.02 years) than the Demirjian method (around six months). Willems method of dental age estimation gives comparatively lesser overestimations of age than other methods reported in the available literature and is thus, accurate and reliable enough to be utilized for forensic purposes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

  13. Age Estimation Robust to Optical and Motion Blurring by Deep Residual CNN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeon Seong Kang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Recently, real-time human age estimation based on facial images has been applied in various areas. Underneath this phenomenon lies an awareness that age estimation plays an important role in applying big data to target marketing for age groups, product demand surveys, consumer trend analysis, etc. However, in a real-world environment, various optical and motion blurring effects can occur. Such effects usually cause a problem in fully capturing facial features such as wrinkles, which are essential to age estimation, thereby degrading accuracy. Most of the previous studies on age estimation were conducted for input images almost free from blurring effect. To overcome this limitation, we propose the use of a deep ResNet-152 convolutional neural network for age estimation, which is robust to various optical and motion blurring effects of visible light camera sensors. We performed experiments with various optical and motion blurred images created from the park aging mind laboratory (PAL and craniofacial longitudinal morphological face database (MORPH databases, which are publicly available. According to the results, the proposed method exhibited better age estimation performance than the previous methods.

  14. Age estimation in the living: Transition analysis on developing third molars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tangmose, Sara; Thevissen, Patrick; Lynnerup, Niels; Willems, Guy; Boldsen, Jesper

    2015-12-01

    A radiographic assessment of third molar development is essential for differentiating between juveniles and adolescents in forensic age estimations. As the developmental stages of third molars are highly correlated, age estimates based on a combination of a full set of third molar scores are statistically complicated. Transition analysis (TA) is a statistical method developed for estimating age at death in skeletons, which combines several correlated developmental traits into one age estimate including a 95% prediction interval. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of TA in the living on a full set of third molar scores. A cross sectional sample of 854 panoramic radiographs, homogenously distributed by sex and age (15.0-24.0 years), were randomly split in two; a reference sample for obtaining age estimates including a 95% prediction interval according to TA; and a validation sample to test the age estimates against actual age. The mean inaccuracy of the age estimates was 1.82 years (±1.35) in males and 1.81 years (±1.44) in females. The mean bias was 0.55 years (±2.20) in males and 0.31 years (±2.30) in females. Of the actual ages, 93.7% of the males and 95.9% of the females (validation sample) fell within the 95% prediction interval. Moreover, at a sensitivity and specificity of 0.824 and 0.937 in males and 0.814 and 0.827 in females, TA performs well in differentiating between being a minor as opposed to an adult. Although accuracy does not outperform other methods, TA provides unbiased age estimates which minimize the risk of wrongly estimating minors as adults. Furthermore, when corrected ad hoc, TA produces appropriate prediction intervals. As TA allows expansion with additional traits, i.e. stages of development of the left hand-wrist and the clavicle, it has a great potential for future more accurate and reproducible age estimates, including an estimated probability of having attained the legal age limit of 18 years. Copyright © 2015

  15. A statistical method for estimating rates of soil development and ages of geologic deposits: A design for soil-chronosequence studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Switzer, P.; Harden, J.W.; Mark, R.K.

    1988-01-01

    A statistical method for estimating rates of soil development in a given region based on calibration from a series of dated soils is used to estimate ages of soils in the same region that are not dated directly. The method is designed specifically to account for sampling procedures and uncertainties that are inherent in soil studies. Soil variation and measurement error, uncertainties in calibration dates and their relation to the age of the soil, and the limited number of dated soils are all considered. Maximum likelihood (ML) is employed to estimate a parametric linear calibration curve, relating soil development to time or age on suitably transformed scales. Soil variation on a geomorphic surface of a certain age is characterized by replicate sampling of soils on each surface; such variation is assumed to have a Gaussian distribution. The age of a geomorphic surface is described by older and younger bounds. This technique allows age uncertainty to be characterized by either a Gaussian distribution or by a triangular distribution using minimum, best-estimate, and maximum ages. The calibration curve is taken to be linear after suitable (in certain cases logarithmic) transformations, if required, of the soil parameter and age variables. Soil variability, measurement error, and departures from linearity are described in a combined fashion using Gaussian distributions with variances particular to each sampled geomorphic surface and the number of sample replicates. Uncertainty in age of a geomorphic surface used for calibration is described using three parameters by one of two methods. In the first method, upper and lower ages are specified together with a coverage probability; this specification is converted to a Gaussian distribution with the appropriate mean and variance. In the second method, "absolute" older and younger ages are specified together with a most probable age; this specification is converted to an asymmetric triangular distribution with mode at the

  16. [Problems associated with chronological age estimation of children exploited in child pornography production].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bednarek, Jarosław

    2006-01-01

    Chronological age assessment of young persons featuring in pornographic pictures and videos is crucial to prove a violation of law. The paper discusses possibilities of and difficulties inherent in age estimation in cases of production and distribution of child pornography. The presented problems were divided into technical and individual development-associated issues. Technical difficulties included lack of a reference system for biological features reconstruction, poor quality and resolution of pictures or movies, pictures retouching and photomontage. The author stressed that biological hindrances in age assessment were the consequences of interpersonal variation of developmental patterns, namely overlapping of ranges typical for feature values at particular ages and biological variations between different human populations. The described problems can render age estimation impossible or far from precise. Developing more accurate methods of estimating age from pictures and videos requires the collaboration of specialists in the field of auxology, anthropology, pediatrics, as well as experts in photography and video techniques.

  17. Is Greulich–Pyle age estimation applicable for determining maturation in male Africans?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan G. Morri

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Skeletal age estimation as a means of assessing development and skeletal maturation in children and adolescents is of great importance for clinical and forensic purposes. The skeletal age of a test population is estimated by comparison with established standards, the most common standards being those in the Radiographic atlas of skeletal development of the hand and wristpublished by Greulich and Pyle in 1959. These standards are based on the assumption that skeletal maturity in male individuals is attained by the chronological age of 19 years. Although they have been widely tested, the applicability of these standards to contemporary populations has yet to be tested on a population of African biological origin living in South Africa. We therefore estimated the skeletal age of 131 male Africans aged between 13 and 21 years, using the Greulich–Pyle method which we applied to pre-existing hand–wrist radiographs. Estimated skeletal age was compared to the known chronological age for each radiograph. Skeletal age was on average approximately 6 months younger than chronological age. The Greulich–Pyle method underestimated skeletal age for approximately 74%of the sample and overestimated skeletal age for 26%of the sample. Skeletal maturity as characterised by complete epiphyseal fusion occurred approximately 2.1 years later than Greulich and Pyle’s estimate of 19 years. Thus skeletal maturation was still in progress in a large proportion of the 20- and 21-year-old individuals in our study. The Greulich–Pyle method showed high precision but low accuracy and was therefore not directly applicable to African male individuals. Formulation of skeletal age estimation standards specific to South African populations is therefore recommended.

  18. Reliability of Third Molar Development for Age Estimation by Radiographic Examination (Demirjian's Method).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naik, Sushil B; Patil, Swapnil N; Kamble, Seema D; Mowade, Tushar; Motghare, Pavan

    2014-05-01

    Dental age estimation methods are of particular value because teeth are highly resistant to mechanical, chemical, or physical impacts and time. Teeth are the strongest parts in the human body and are therefore very resistant to external influences, such as extreme temperatures, explosions, and other extreme conditions, which make them available for extensive postmortem periods. To correlate chronological age with dental age using Demirijian's method. The study was carried out on 100 digital orthopantamograms (OPG) of patients in the age group of 7 to 24 years. During the analysis, Magnify' and Ruler' tools were used. Mandibular right third molar was used for entire study. Data collected was analysed by using SPSS software. Development of third molar in all stages was found slightly earlier in males than in females, when chronological age was compared with dental age using Demirjian method. 88% subject showed statistically significant linear correlation between chronological age and developmental age using Demirjian's method. The linear correlation between chronological age and dental age using to Demirjian's method was more in age group above 16 years and less in age group below 16 years. Demirijian's method is a reliable guide for age estimation in age group of 7 to 24 years of age.

  19. Artificial Neural Networks and Gene Expression Programing based age estimation using facial features

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baddrud Z. Laskar

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This work is about estimating human age automatically through analysis of facial images. It has got a lot of real-world applications. Due to prompt advances in the fields of machine vision, facial image processing, and computer graphics, automatic age estimation via faces in computer is one of the dominant topics these days. This is due to widespread real-world applications, in areas of biometrics, security, surveillance, control, forensic art, entertainment, online customer management and support, along with cosmetology. As it is difficult to estimate the exact age, this system is to estimate a certain range of ages. Four sets of classifications have been used to differentiate a person’s data into one of the different age groups. The uniqueness about this study is the usage of two technologies i.e., Artificial Neural Networks (ANN and Gene Expression Programing (GEP to estimate the age and then compare the results. New methodologies like Gene Expression Programing (GEP have been explored here and significant results were found. The dataset has been developed to provide more efficient results by superior preprocessing methods. This proposed approach has been developed, tested and trained using both the methods. A public data set was used to test the system, FG-NET. The quality of the proposed system for age estimation using facial features is shown by broad experiments on the available database of FG-NET.

  20. Strategic Decision-Making Learning from Label Distributions: An Approach for Facial Age Estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Wei; Wang, Han

    2016-06-28

    Nowadays, label distribution learning is among the state-of-the-art methodologies in facial age estimation. It takes the age of each facial image instance as a label distribution with a series of age labels rather than the single chronological age label that is commonly used. However, this methodology is deficient in its simple decision-making criterion: the final predicted age is only selected at the one with maximum description degree. In many cases, different age labels may have very similar description degrees. Consequently, blindly deciding the estimated age by virtue of the highest description degree would miss or neglect other valuable age labels that may contribute a lot to the final predicted age. In this paper, we propose a strategic decision-making label distribution learning algorithm (SDM-LDL) with a series of strategies specialized for different types of age label distribution. Experimental results from the most popular aging face database, FG-NET, show the superiority and validity of all the proposed strategic decision-making learning algorithms over the existing label distribution learning and other single-label learning algorithms for facial age estimation. The inner properties of SDM-LDL are further explored with more advantages.

  1. Skeletal age estimation in a contemporary Western Australian population using the Tanner-Whitehouse method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maggio, Ariane; Flavel, Ambika; Hart, Rob; Franklin, Daniel

    2016-06-01

    Various age estimation techniques have been utilised in Australia to evaluate the age of individuals who do not have documentation to determine legal majority/culpability. These age estimation techniques rely on the assessment of skeletal development as visualised in radiographs, CT scans, MRI or ultrasound modalities, and subsequent comparison to reference standards. These standards are not always population specific and are thus known to be less accurate when applied outside of the original reference sample, leading to potential ethical implications. Therefore, the present study aims to: (i) explore the variation in developmental trajectories between the established Tanner-Whitehouse (TW) age estimation standards and a Western Australian population; and (ii) develop specific hand-wrist age estimation standards for the latter population. The present study examines digital anterior-posterior hand-wrist radiographs of 360 individuals 0 to 24.9 years of age, equally represented by sex. Each radiograph was assessed using the RUS, Carpal and 20-bone methods of Tanner et al. The standard error of the estimate (SEE) was calculated for each method (range: ♀ SEE ±0.4-11.5 years; ♂ SEE ±0.9-10.1 years). The most accurate method was TW3 RUS for females and the TW2 Carpal system for males. The 50th centile skeletal maturity scores for each year age group were plotted against average chronological age to produce polynomial regression standards with a demonstrated accuracy of (♀ SEE ±0.09-3.46 years; ♂ SEE ±0.02-3.42 years) for females and males, respectively. The standards presented here can be used in future forensic investigations that require age estimation of hand-wrist bones in a Western Australian population, however, they are not appropriate for establishing age of majority (18 years), as skeletal maturity was attained on average earlier than 15 years of age in both sexes for all three systems examined. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights

  2. Computerized Bone Age Estimation Using Deep Learning Based Program: Evaluation of the Accuracy and Efficiency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jeong Rye; Shim, Woo Hyun; Yoon, Hee Mang; Hong, Sang Hyup; Lee, Jin Seong; Cho, Young Ah; Kim, Sangki

    2017-12-01

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate the accuracy and efficiency of a new automatic software system for bone age assessment and to validate its feasibility in clinical practice. A Greulich-Pyle method-based deep-learning technique was used to develop the automatic software system for bone age determination. Using this software, bone age was estimated from left-hand radiographs of 200 patients (3-17 years old) using first-rank bone age (software only), computer-assisted bone age (two radiologists with software assistance), and Greulich-Pyle atlas-assisted bone age (two radiologists with Greulich-Pyle atlas assistance only). The reference bone age was determined by the consensus of two experienced radiologists. First-rank bone ages determined by the automatic software system showed a 69.5% concordance rate and significant correlations with the reference bone age (r = 0.992; p software system for both reviewer 1 (63.0% for Greulich-Pyle atlas-assisted bone age vs 72.5% for computer-assisted bone age) and reviewer 2 (49.5% for Greulich-Pyle atlas-assisted bone age vs 57.5% for computer-assisted bone age). Reading times were reduced by 18.0% and 40.0% for reviewers 1 and 2, respectively. Automatic software system showed reliably accurate bone age estimations and appeared to enhance efficiency by reducing reading times without compromising the diagnostic accuracy.

  3. In situ acoustic methods to estimate the physical and mechanical aging of oriented strand board

    OpenAIRE

    Bobadilla Maldonado, Ignacio; Robles, Marta; Martínez, Roberto; Iñiguez Gonzalez, Guillermo; Arriaga Martitegui, Francisco

    2011-01-01

    Following the success achieved in previous research projects usin non-destructive methods to estimate the physical and mechanical aging of particle and fibre boards, this paper studies the relationships between aging, physical and mechanical changes, using non-destructive measurements of oriented strand board (OSB). 184 pieces of OSB board from a French source were tested to analyze its actual physical and mechanical properties. The same properties were estimated using acoustic non-destructiv...

  4. Is Greulich–Pyle age estimation applicable for determining maturation in male Africans?

    OpenAIRE

    Alan G. Morri; Kundisai A. Dembetembe

    2012-01-01

    Skeletal age estimation as a means of assessing development and skeletal maturation in children and adolescents is of great importance for clinical and forensic purposes. The skeletal age of a test population is estimated by comparison with established standards, the most common standards being those in the Radiographic atlas of skeletal development of the hand and wristpublished by Greulich and Pyle in 1959. These standards are based on the assumption that skeletal maturity in male individua...

  5. Radiological age estimation: based on third molar mineralization and eruption in Turkish children and young adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karadayi, Beytullah; Kaya, Ahsen; Kolusayın, Melek Ozlem; Karadayi, Sükriye; Afsin, Hüseyin; Ozaslan, Abdi

    2012-11-01

    Radiographic evaluation of mineralization and eruption stages of third molars using dental panoramic radiographies can be an efficient tool for chronological age estimation in both forensic sciences and legal medicine. The third molar tooth is utilized for dental age estimation about the age span of 15-23 years because it represents the only tooth still in development. The aim of this study is to obtain and analyze data regarding third molar development and eruption in Turkish population for dental age estimation. A total of 744 dental panoramic radiographies of 394 female and 350 male subjects aged between 8 and 22 years were examined. Third molar development was determined according to the Nolla classification system, and eruption was assessed relative to the alveolar bone level. Mandibular and maxillary third molars were generally found at similar stages of development on both sides. Nolla stage 6 (completed crown calcification) was reached at around the age of 15 in both maxillary and mandibular third molars in both sexes. Alveolar emergence was at around the age of 16 in males and around age of 17 in females. Although third molars' eruption shows greater variability than development of third molars, data which were obtained from this study about eruption of these teeth can be supportive to development data for age estimation.

  6. Dental age estimation from the developmental stage of the third molars in western Chinese population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Guo; Ren, Jiayin; Zhao, Shuping; Liu, Yuanyuan; Li, Na; Wu, Wanhong; Yuan, Shanshan; Wang, Hu

    2012-06-10

    The purpose of this study is to provide reference data about estimating dental age from third molars of the western Chinese population for comparing with other populations and being applied to the age estimation of western Chinese juveniles and adolescents. A total of 2078 digital panoramic radiographs of 989 male and 1089 female Chinese subjects aged between 5 and 23 years were examined. The mineralization status of the third molars was assessed using the formation stages described by Demirjian et al. with two modifications. The results showed that the development of third molars in the western Chinese population was likely to begin at age 5 in both males and females. The third molars 28 and 48 showed significantly higher frequency in females than in males. The third molars 18 in the stage 1, 38 in the stages 1, A and G, and 48 in the stage H showed significantly older average age in females than in males. The Demirjian's stages C and D could be used as a reference stage to determine dichotomously whether a western Chinese is more likely to be under or above age 14 or 16, respectively. This study provided reference data for the age estimation of western Chinese juveniles and adolescents by the mineralization stages of the third molar. Apart from forensic age determination in living subjects, the presented reference data can also be used for age estimations of unidentified corpses and skeletons. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. An age estimation method using brain local features for T1-weighted images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kondo, Chihiro; Ito, Koichi; Kai Wu; Sato, Kazunori; Taki, Yasuyuki; Fukuda, Hiroshi; Aoki, Takafumi

    2015-08-01

    Previous statistical analysis studies using large-scale brain magnetic resonance (MR) image databases have examined that brain tissues have age-related morphological changes. This fact indicates that one can estimate the age of a subject from his/her brain MR image by evaluating morphological changes with healthy aging. This paper proposes an age estimation method using local features extracted from T1-weighted MR images. The brain local features are defined by volumes of brain tissues parcellated into local regions defined by the automated anatomical labeling atlas. The proposed method selects optimal local regions to improve the performance of age estimation. We evaluate performance of the proposed method using 1,146 T1-weighted images from a Japanese MR image database. We also discuss the medical implication of selected optimal local regions.

  8. Human Age Estimation Method Robust to Camera Sensor and/or Face Movement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dat Tien Nguyen

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Human age can be employed in many useful real-life applications, such as customer service systems, automatic vending machines, entertainment, etc. In order to obtain age information, image-based age estimation systems have been developed using information from the human face. However, limitations exist for current age estimation systems because of the various factors of camera motion and optical blurring, facial expressions, gender, etc. Motion blurring can usually be presented on face images by the movement of the camera sensor and/or the movement of the face during image acquisition. Therefore, the facial feature in captured images can be transformed according to the amount of motion, which causes performance degradation of age estimation systems. In this paper, the problem caused by motion blurring is addressed and its solution is proposed in order to make age estimation systems robust to the effects of motion blurring. Experiment results show that our method is more efficient for enhancing age estimation performance compared with systems that do not employ our method.

  9. A radiographic study estimating age of mandibular third molars by periodontal ligament visibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaudhary, M A; Liversidge, H M

    2017-12-01

    Visibility of the periodontal ligament of mandibular third molars (M3) has been suggested as a method to estimate age. To assess the accuracy of this method and compare the visibility of the periodontal ligament in the left M3 with the right M3. The sample was archived panoramic dental radiographs of 163 individuals (75 males, 88 females, age 16-53 years) with mature M3's. Reliability was assessed using Kappa. Accuracy was assessed by subtracting chronological age from estimated age for males and females. Stages were cross-tabulated against age stages younger than and at least 18 and 21 years of age. Stages were compared in the left M3 and right M3. Analysis showed excellent intra-observer reliability. Mean difference between estimated and chronological ages was 7.21 years (SD 5.16) for left M3 and 7.69 (SD 6.08) for right M3 in males and 6.87 (SD 5.83) for left M3 and 8.61 (SD 6.58) for right M3 in females. Minimum ages of stages 0 to 2 were younger than previously reported, despite a small sample of individuals younger than 18. The left and right M3 stage differed in 46% of the 85 individuals with readings from both side and estimated age differed from -10.5 to 12.2 years between left and right. Accuracy of this method was between 6 and 8 years with an error of 5 to 6 years. The number of individuals with mature M3 apices younger than 18 years was small. The stage of visibility of the periodontal ligament differed between left and right in almost half of our sample with both teeth present. Our findings question the use of this method to estimate age or to discriminate between age younger and at least 18 years.

  10. Estimation of age in forensic medicine using multivariate approach to image analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kucheryavskiy, Sergey V.; Belyaev, Ivan; Fominykh, Sergey

    2009-01-01

    A new method for victims' age estimation, based on the image processing and analysis of remains bones structure, is proposed. Digital images of lumbar vertebras cuts were used as a major information source. The age related properties were extracted from the images using classic texture analysis a...

  11. A method for estimating age of Danish medieval sub-adults based on long bone length

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Primeau, C.; Lynnerup, Niels; Friis, Laila Saidane

    2012-01-01

    for aging archaeological Danish sub-adults from the medieval period based on diaphyseal lengths. The problem with using data on Danish samples, which have been derived from a different population, is the possibility of skewing age estimates. In this study 58 Danish archaeological sub-adults were examined...

  12. On the Bayesian approach to forensic age estimation of living individuals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sironi, Emanuele; Vuille, Joëlle; Morling, Niels

    2017-01-01

    Forensic age estimation, a branch of forensic science, has received renewed attention lately mainly due to societal migration phenomena. And yet, the interpretation of age-related evidence is still largely neglected as a field, the literature being usually limited to technical discussions strictly...

  13. Estimation of age in forensic medicine using multivariate approach to image analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kucheryavskiy, Sergey V.; Belyaev, Ivan; Fominykh, Sergey

    2009-01-01

    A new method for victims' age estimation, based on the image processing and analysis of remains bones structure, is proposed. Digital images of lumbar vertebras cuts were used as a major information source. The age related properties were extracted from the images using classic texture analysis...

  14. Specific and unspecific gynecological alarm symptoms -prevalence estimates in different age groups

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balasubramaniam, Kirubakaran; Ravn, Pernille; Larsen, Pia V

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To determine prevalence estimates of gynecological alarm symptoms in different age groups and to describe common patterns of gynecological symptoms. DESIGN: Web-based cross-sectional survey study. SETTING: Nationwide in Denmark. POPULATION: A random sample of 51 090 women aged 20 years...

  15. Age estimation, growth rate and size at sexual maturity of tigerfish ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A total of 206 tigerfish Hydrocynus vittatus, collected by angling in August 2005, 2006 and 2007, was assessed for sexual maturity and relative ages were estimated from 135 of these, using scales and whole and sectioned otoliths. Sectioned otoliths were the most appropriate method for ageing H. vittatus of up to 20 years ...

  16. Using a near-infrared spectrometer to estimate the age of Anopheles mosquitoes exposed to pyrethroids

    Science.gov (United States)

    We report on the accuracy of using near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) to predict the age of Anopheles mosquitoes reared from wild larvae and a mixed age-wild adult population collected from pit traps after exposure to pyrethroids. The mosquitoes reared from wild larvae were estimated as ,7 or $7 d ol...

  17. ESTIMATION OF INTRINSIC AND EXTRINSIC ENVIRONMENT FACTORS OF AGE-RELATED TOOTH COLOUR CHANGES

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hyšpler, P.; Jezbera, D.; Fürst, T.; Mikšík, Ivan; Waclawek, M.

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 17, č. 4 (2010), s. 515-525 ISSN 1898-6196 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50110509 Keywords : age-related colour changes of teeth * intrinsic and extrinsic factors * 3D mathematical regression models * estimation of real age Subject RIV: ED - Physiology Impact factor: 0.294, year: 2010

  18. Age estimation by 3D CT-scans of the Borremose Woman, a Danish bog body

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Villa, Chiara; Møller Rasmussen, Maria; Lynnerup, Niels

    2011-01-01

    Non-invasive estimation of age at death has been carried out by using 3D CT scanning of a bog body discovered in 1948 in a peat bog in Borremose (Denmark). The bog body has been dated to the 8th century BC, in the last part of the Bronze Age. The skeletal structures useful for age estimation have...... been visualized from CT-scans using the Mimics software from Materialise. Extensive manual editing was necessary, as is common with bog bodies, since the bones were severely degraded and the ordinary range of Hounsfield Units (HU), used for clinical work, is not suitable. Only the cranium, the left...

  19. An overview of age estimation in forensic anthropology: perspectives and practical considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Márquez-Grant, Nicholas

    2015-01-01

    Information on methods of age estimation in physical anthropology, in particular with regard to age-at-death from human skeletal remains, is widely available in the literature. However, the practicalities and real challenges faced in forensic casework are not always highlighted. To provide a practitioner's perspective, regarding age estimation in forensic anthropology (both in the living as well as the dead), with an emphasis on the types of cases, the value of such work and its challenges and limitations. The paper reviews the current literature on age estimation with a focus on forensic anthropology, but it also brings the author's personal perspective derived from a number of forensic cases. Although much is known about what methods to use, but not always how to apply them, little attention has been given in the literature to the real practicalities faced by forensic anthropologists, for example: the challenges in different types of scenarios; how to report age estimations; responsibilities; and ethical concerns. This paper gathers some of these aspects into one overview which includes the value of such work and the practical challenges, not necessarily with the methods themselves, but also with regard to how these are applied in the different cases where age estimation is required.

  20. Age estimation at death using pubic bone analysis of a virtual reference sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savall, Frédéric; Hérin, Fabrice; Peyron, Pierre Antoine; Rougé, Daniel; Baccino, Eric; Saint-Martin, Pauline; Telmon, Norbert

    2018-03-01

    Age at death estimation is a major part of forensic anthropology, but is often poor in the latter decades of life and should benefit from specific population standards. The aim of this study was to test a virtual reference sample with a uniform age distribution in order to improve the accuracy of age estimation for individuals over 40 years of age. We retrospectively built a random virtual reference sample of pubic symphyses from 1100 clinical cases using computed tomography at two French hospitals; this was compared with a test sample (pubic symphyses from 75 corpses undergoing post-mortem computed tomography at a French forensic department) and with the sample originally used in the Suchey-Brooks (SB) system. Inaccuracy and bias were calculated and the proportions of cases in which the real age fell within the estimated age ± 1 standard deviation were calculated. Compared to using the SB sample, using our French sample resulted in a lower inaccuracy for males over 55 years and bias showed that that for males aged 56 to 70 years were less underestimated. Compared to using the SB sample, using our French sample resulted in a lower inaccuracy for females over 70 years and bias showed that that for females aged 56 and older were less underestimated. This study presents a large data set of pubic symphyseal phases from a French virtual sample that allows for improving age estimation accuracy at death, particularly for individuals over 40 years. This kind of material can be useful to improve the age estimation accuracy in a specific region. However, the reliability remains poor and the variability of pubic symphysis morphology related to bone degeneration seems to be an unavoidable limit of the method.

  1. Estimating age from recapture data: integrating incremental growth measures with ancillary data to infer age-at-length

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eaton, Mitchell J.; Link, William A.

    2011-01-01

    Estimating the age of individuals in wild populations can be of fundamental importance for answering ecological questions, modeling population demographics, and managing exploited or threatened species. Significant effort has been devoted to determining age through the use of growth annuli, secondary physical characteristics related to age, and growth models. Many species, however, either do not exhibit physical characteristics useful for independent age validation or are too rare to justify sacrificing a large number of individuals to establish the relationship between size and age. Length-at-age models are well represented in the fisheries and other wildlife management literature. Many of these models overlook variation in growth rates of individuals and consider growth parameters as population parameters. More recent models have taken advantage of hierarchical structuring of parameters and Bayesian inference methods to allow for variation among individuals as functions of environmental covariates or individual-specific random effects. Here, we describe hierarchical models in which growth curves vary as individual-specific stochastic processes, and we show how these models can be fit using capture–recapture data for animals of unknown age along with data for animals of known age. We combine these independent data sources in a Bayesian analysis, distinguishing natural variation (among and within individuals) from measurement error. We illustrate using data for African dwarf crocodiles, comparing von Bertalanffy and logistic growth models. The analysis provides the means of predicting crocodile age, given a single measurement of head length. The von Bertalanffy was much better supported than the logistic growth model and predicted that dwarf crocodiles grow from 19.4 cm total length at birth to 32.9 cm in the first year and 45.3 cm by the end of their second year. Based on the minimum size of females observed with hatchlings, reproductive maturity was estimated

  2. Setting the light conditions for measuring root transparency for age-at-death estimation methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adserias-Garriga, Joe; Nogué-Navarro, Laia; Zapico, Sara C; Ubelaker, Douglas H

    2018-03-01

    Age-at-death estimation is one of the main goals in forensic identification, being an essential parameter to determine the biological profile, narrowing the possibility of identification in cases involving missing persons and unidentified bodies. The study of dental tissues has been long considered as a proper tool for age estimation with several age estimation methods based on them. Dental age estimation methods can be divided into three categories: tooth formation and development, post-formation changes, and histological changes. While tooth formation and growth changes are important for fetal and infant consideration, when the end of dental and skeletal growth is achieved, post-formation or biochemical changes can be applied. Lamendin et al. in J Forensic Sci 37:1373-1379, (1992) developed an adult age estimation method based on root transparency and periodontal recession. The regression formula demonstrated its accuracy of use for 40 to 70-year-old individuals. Later on, Prince and Ubelaker in J Forensic Sci 47(1):107-116, (2002) evaluated the effects of ancestry and sex and incorporated root height into the equation, developing four new regression formulas for males and females of African and European ancestry. Even though root transparency is a key element in the method, the conditions for measuring this element have not been established. The aim of the present study is to set the light conditions measured in lumens that offer greater accuracy when applying the Lamendin et al. method modified by Prince and Ubelaker. The results must be also taken into account in the application of other age estimation methodologies using root transparency to estimate age-at-death.

  3. [Progress in thin layer CT scan technology in estimating skeletal age of sternal end of clavicle].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ya-Hui; Wei, Hua; Ying, Chong-Liang; Wan, Lei; Zhu, Guang-You

    2013-04-01

    It is practical value for determination the teenagers whether the age is full of the legal responsibility age of 18 years old or not by estimating skeletal age of sternal end of clavicle. The traditional methods mainly based on X-ray radiography. However, sternal end of clavicle and adjacent lung, bronchus, sternum, rib, transverse process of thoracic vertebra are overlapped each other. As a result of overlapping, there will be obtained false negative or positive film reading results when according to X-ray observation of epiphyseal growth of sternal end of clavicle, which directly affect the scientificalness and accuracy of estimating of skeletal age. In recent years, the scholars at home and abroad have started to use thin layer CT scan technology to estimate skeletal age of the sternal end of clavicle. With the 2D and 3D CT recombination technology, the accuracy of the film reading distinctly improves by making the shape, size and position of epiphysis displayed clearly. This article reviews the application and research progress of thin layer CT scanning technology in estimating skeletal age of sternal end of clavicle at home and abroad, analyzes the superiority and value of thin layer CT scan technology, which applied to skeletal age of sternal end of clavicle.

  4. Age estimation by canines' pulp/tooth ratio in an Iranian population using digital panoramic radiography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dehghani, Mahdieh; Shadkam, Elaheh; Ahrari, Farzaneh; Dehghani, Mahboobe

    2018-04-01

    Age estimation in adults is an important issue in forensic science. This study aimed to estimate the chronological age of Iranians by means of pulp/tooth area ratio (AR) of canines in digital panoramic radiographs. The sample consisted of panoramic radiographs of 271 male and female subjects aged 16-64 years. The pulp/tooth area ratio (AR) of upper and lower canines was calculated by AutoCAD software. Data were subjected to correlation and regression analysis. There was a significant and inverse correlation between age and pulp/tooth area ratio of upper and lower canines (r=-0.794 for upper canine and r=-0.282 for lower canine; p-value<0.001). Linear regression equations were derived separately for upper, lower and both canines. The mean difference between actual and estimated age using upper canine was 6.07±1.7. The results showed that the pulp/tooth area ratios of canines are a reliable method for age estimation in Iranians. The pulp/tooth area ratio of upper canine was better correlated with chronological age than that of lower canine. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Clonal diversity and estimation of relative clone age: application to agrobiodiversity of yam (Dioscorea rotundata).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scarcelli, Nora; Couderc, Marie; Baco, Mohamed N; Egah, Janvier; Vigouroux, Yves

    2013-11-13

    Clonal propagation is a particular reproductive system found in both the plant and animal kingdoms, from human parasites to clonally propagated crops. Clonal diversity provides information about plant and animal evolutionary history, i.e. how clones spread, or the age of a particular clone. In plants, this could provide valuable information about agrobiodiversity dynamics and more broadly about the evolutionary history of a particular crop. We studied the evolutionary history of yam, Dioscorea rotundata. In Africa, Yam is cultivated by tuber clonal propagation. We used 12 microsatellite markers to identify intra-clonal diversity in yam varieties. We then used this diversity to assess the relative ages of clones. Using simulations, we assessed how Approximate Bayesian Computation could use clonal diversity to estimate the age of a clone depending on the size of the sample, the number of independent samples and the number of markers. We then applied this approach to our particular dataset and showed that the relative ages of varieties could be estimated, and that each variety could be ranked by age. We give a first estimation of clone age in an approximate Bayesian framework. However the precise estimation of clone age depends on the precision of the mutation rate. We provide useful information on agrobiodiversity dynamics and suggest recurrent creation of varietal diversity in a clonally propagated crop.

  6. Absolute Gravimetry in Fennoscandia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pettersen, B. R; TImmen, L.; Gitlein, O.

    away from this central location. An oval shaped zero uplift isoline tracks the general western and northern coastline of Norway and the Kola peninsula. It returns southwest through Russian Karelia and touches the southern tip of Sweden and northern Denmark. The uplift area (as measured by present day...... motions) has its major axis in the direction of southwest to northeast and covers a distance of about 2000 km. Absolute gravimetry was made in Finland and Norway in 1976 with a rise-and fall instrument. A decade later the number of gravity stations was expanded by JILAg-5, in Finland from 1988, in Norway...... acquired by IfE (FG5-220), FGI (FG5-221), and UMB (FG5-226). New absolute gravity stations were established by the national mapping agencies in Denmark, Norway, and Sweden. The total number of prepared sites in Fennoscandia is now about 30. Most of them are co-located with permanent GPS, for many of which...

  7. The influence of body size on adult skeletal age estimation methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merritt, Catherine E

    2015-01-01

    Accurate age estimations are essential to archaeological and forensic analyses. However, reliability for adult skeletal age estimations is poor, especially for individuals over the age of 40 years. This is the first study to show that body size influences skeletal age estimation. The İşcan et al., Lovejoy et al., Buckberry and Chamberlain, and Suchey-Brooks age methods were tested on 764 adult skeletons from the Hamann-Todd and William Bass Collections. Statures ranged from 1.30 to 1.93 m and body masses ranged from 24.0 to 99.8 kg. Transition analysis was used to evaluate the differences in the age estimations. For all four methods, the smallest individuals have the lowest ages at transition and the largest individuals have the highest ages at transition. Short and light individuals are consistently underaged, while tall and heavy individuals are consistently overaged. When femoral length and femoral head diameter are compared with the log-age model, results show the same trend as the known stature and body mass measurements. The skeletal remains of underweight individuals have fewer age markers while those of obese individuals have increased surface degeneration and osteophytic lipping. Tissue type and mechanical loading have been shown to affect bone turnover rates, and may explain the differing patterns of skeletal aging. From an archaeological perspective, the underaging of light, short individuals suggests the need to revisit the current research consensus on the young mortality rates of past populations. From a forensic perspective, understanding the influence of body size will impact efforts to identify victims of mass disasters, genocides, and homicides. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. An Improved Method for Estimating Water-Mass Ventilation Age from Radiocarbon Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devries, T. J.; Primeau, F. W.

    2009-12-01

    Paleoceanographic data can help to constrain the state of the past ocean circulation. One critical quantity that can be constrained by paleoceanographic data is the ventilation age, which measures the vigor of the ocean circulation. Paleoceanographers often use radiocarbon data to estimate paleo-ventilation ages by calculating either the benthic-planktonic (B-P) age difference, or the so-called “projection” age. However, recent studies have shown that neither of these calculations yield correct estimates of ventilation age, due to fluctuations in atmospheric radiocarbon content and mixing processes in the ocean. Here we propose a new method for more accurately inferring paleo-ventilation ages based on radiocarbon data. Our method makes use of a model that uses parameterized transfer functions to simulate the effects of circulation and mixing in the ocean. We show how this model can be used in a Bayesian framework to infer a ventilation age from a paired radiocarbon- and calendar-age measurement. The Bayesian framework allows us to quantify the uncertainty in the inferred ventilation age due to uncertainty in the data, as well as uncertainty in the assumptions made in the model itself. We applied this framework to previously published radiocarbon data from the deep North Pacific spanning 10 000 to 20 000 years before present. Ventilation ages inferred using our method are significantly different from the B-P ages or projection ages calculated from the same data. Furthermore, our analysis suggests that the uncertainty of the ventilation ages is on the order of 400-500 years, and that the main sources of uncertainty are uncertainty in the age of surface source waters and in the true calendar age of the radiocarbon data. Our results do not show a clear change in the ventilation age of deep North Pacific waters during the last deglaciation.

  9. Estimating the distribution of probable age-at-death from dental remains of immature human fossils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shackelford, Laura L; Stinespring Harris, Ashley E; Konigsberg, Lyle W

    2012-02-01

    In two historic longitudinal growth studies, Moorrees et al. (Am J Phys Anthropol 21 (1963) 99-108; J Dent Res 42 (1963) 1490-1502) presented the "mean attainment age" for stages of tooth development for 10 permanent tooth types and three deciduous tooth types. These findings were presented graphically to assess the rate of tooth formation in living children and to age immature skeletal remains. Despite being widely cited, these graphical data are difficult to implement because there are no accompanying numerical values for the parameters underlying the growth data. This analysis generates numerical parameters from the data reported by Moorrees et al. by digitizing 358 points from these tooth formation graphs using DataThief III, version 1.5. Following the original methods, the digitized points for each age transition were conception-corrected and converted to the logarithmic scale to determine a median attainment age for each dental formation stage. These values are subsequently used to estimate age-at-death distributions for immature individuals using a single tooth or multiple teeth, including estimates for 41 immature early modern humans and 25 immature Neandertals. Within-tooth variance is calculated for each age estimate based on a single tooth, and a between-tooth component of variance is calculated for age estimates based on two or more teeth to account for the increase in precision that comes from using additional teeth. Finally, we calculate the relative probability of observing a particular dental formation sequence given known-age reference information and demonstrate its value in estimating age for immature fossil specimens. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  10. Is the assessment of bone age by the Greulich-Pyle method reliable at forensic age estimation for Turkish children?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Büken, Bora; Safak, Alp Alper; Yazici, Burhan; Büken, Erhan; Mayda, Atilla Senih

    2007-12-20

    Estimation of age is an important task for forensic experts especially in developing countries where birth records are often not well maintained. In this study, we investigated whether or not the Greulich-Pyle (G-P) method is sufficient at forensic age estimation for Turkish children. Plain radiographies of left hands and wrists of 492 (241 (49.0%) female, 251 (51.0%) male) healthy children between 11 and 18 years of age for girls and 11 and 19 years of age for boys were taken. Mean chronological ages (CA) were compared with mean skeletal ages according to G-P atlas for each gender and in the second step the differences those for each age group were determined. The children were Caucasian and had a low-middle socioeconomic status in this study population. The paired sample t test was used to indicate the difference between G-P (mean skeletal age according to G-P atlas) and CA (mean chronological age). In order to indicate the relation Pearson correlation coefficient was used. Modeling the relationship between G-P and CA linear regression was used. The analyses were done under SPSS 11.5. The G-P compared to their CA. The CA was 14.52+/-2.18 S.D. years, S.E.: 0.14 (median: 14.47, range: 11.07-18.92 years) whereas G-P was 15.06+/-2.31 S.D. years, S.E.: 0.15 (median: 15.00, range: 10-18 years) for girls. The difference between the two parameters was statistically significant (pE.: 0.15 (median: 15.09, S.E. range 11.13-19.94 years) and G-P was 15.41+/-2.92 S.D. years, S.E.: 0.18 (median: 15.60, range 9-19 years) for boys. The difference was not statistically significant (p>0.05). There was a high correlation (Pearson r=0.882, pgenders. According to age groups G-P was advanced (0.17-1.1 year) almost for all ages and differences were significant at 11, 12, 14, 16 ages for girls. G-P was delayed at 11-14 ages (0.01-0.58 year) but not significant except for 13 years and G-P were significantly advanced in 15-17 ages (0.88-0.98 years) but then delayed in 18-19 years of age (0

  11. Application of a novel method for age estimation of a baleen whale and a porpoise

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Nynne H.; Garde, Eva; Heide-Jørgensen, Mads Peter

    2013-01-01

    Eyeballs from 121 fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus) and 83 harbor porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) were used for age estimation using the aspartic acid racemization (AAR) technique. The racemization rate (kAsp) for fin whales was established from 15 fetuses (age 0) and 15 adult whales where age...... was estimated by reading growth layer groups (GLGs) in the earplugs. The (kAsp) for harbor porpoises was derived from 15 porpoises (two calves and 13 > 1 yr old) age-estimated by counting GLGs in the teeth and two calves classified to age based on length. The (kAsp) values were estimated by regression of GLGs...... against D/L ratios. For the fin whales an (kAsp) of 1.15 × 10−3/yr (SE ± 0.00005) and a D/L ratio at birth [(D/L)0] of 0.028 (SE ± 0.0012) were estimated, which is in agreement with rates for other mysticeti. For the harbor porpoises a (kAsp) of 3.10 × 10−3/yr (SE ± 0.0004) and a (D/L)0 value of 0.023 (SE...

  12. Thermodynamics of negative absolute pressures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lukacs, B.; Martinas, K.

    1984-03-01

    The authors show that the possibility of negative absolute pressure can be incorporated into the axiomatic thermodynamics, analogously to the negative absolute temperature. There are examples for such systems (GUT, QCD) processing negative absolute pressure in such domains where it can be expected from thermodynamical considerations. (author)

  13. Paleoglaciation of the Tibetan Plateau based on exposure ages and ELA depression estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heyman, Jakob

    2014-05-01

    The Tibetan Plateau holds a major part of all glaciers outside the polar regions and an ample record of past glaciations. The glacial history of the Tibetan Plateau has attracted significant interest, with a large body of research investigating the extent, timing, and climatic implications of past glaciations. Here I present an extensive compilation of exposure ages and equilibrium line altitude (ELA) depression estimates from glacial deposits across the Tibetan Plateau to address the timing and degree of past glaciations. I compiled Be-10 exposure age data for a total of 1877 samples and recalculated exposure ages using an updated (lower) global Be-10 production rate. All samples were organized in groups of individual glacial deposits where each deposit represents one glacial event enabling evaluation of the exposure age clustering. For each glacial deposit I estimated the ELA depression based on a simple toe to headwall ratio approach using Google Earth. To discriminate good (well-clustered) from poor (scattered) exposure age groups the glacial deposits were divided into three groups based on exposure age clustering. A major part of the glacial deposits have scattered exposure ages affected by prior or incomplete exposure, complicating exposure age interpretations. The well-clustered exposure age groups are primarily from mountain ranges along the margins of the Tibetan Plateau with a main peak in age between 10 and 30 ka, indicating glacial advances during the global last glacial maximum (LGM). A large number of exposure ages older than 30 ka indicates maximum glaciation predating the LGM, but the exposure age scatter generally prohibits accurate definition of the glacial chronology. The ELA depression estimates scatter significantly, but a major part is remarkably low. Average ELA depressions of 333 ± 191 m for the LGM and 494 ± 280 m for the pre-LGM exposure indicate restricted glacier expansion and limited glacial cooling.

  14. Accuracy of age estimation methods from orthopantomograph in forensic odontology: a comparative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khorate, Manisha M; Dinkar, A D; Ahmed, Junaid

    2014-01-01

    Changes related to chronological age are seen in both hard and soft tissue. A number of methods for age estimation have been proposed which can be classified in four categories, namely, clinical, radiological, histological and chemical analysis. In forensic odontology, age estimation based on tooth development is universally accepted method. The panoramic radiographs of 500 healthy Goan, Indian children (250 boys and 250 girls) aged between 4 and 22.1 years were selected. Modified Demirjian's method (1973/2004), Acharya AB formula (2011), Dr Ajit D. Dinkar (1984) regression equation, Foti and coworkers (2003) formula (clinical and radiological) were applied for estimation of age. The result of our study has shown that Dr Ajit D. Dinkar method is more accurate followed by Acharya Indian-specific formula. Furthermore, in this study by applying all these methods to one regional population, we have attempted to present dental age estimation methodology best suited for the Goan Indian population. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Estimating the Spatial Distribution of Groundwater Age Using Synoptic Surveys of Environmental Tracers in Streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardner, W. P.

    2017-12-01

    A model which simulates tracer concentration in surface water as a function the age distribution of groundwater discharge is used to characterize groundwater flow systems at a variety of spatial scales. We develop the theory behind the model and demonstrate its application in several groundwater systems of local to regional scale. A 1-D stream transport model, which includes: advection, dispersion, gas exchange, first-order decay and groundwater inflow is coupled a lumped parameter model that calculates the concentration of environmental tracers in discharging groundwater as a function of the groundwater residence time distribution. The lumped parameters, which describe the residence time distribution, are allowed to vary spatially, and multiple environmental tracers can be simulated. This model allows us to calculate the longitudinal profile of tracer concentration in streams as a function of the spatially variable groundwater age distribution. By fitting model results to observations of stream chemistry and discharge, we can then estimate the spatial distribution of groundwater age. The volume of groundwater discharge to streams can be estimated using a subset of environmental tracers, applied tracers, synoptic stream gauging or other methods, and the age of groundwater then estimated using the previously calculated groundwater discharge and observed environmental tracer concentrations. Synoptic surveys of SF6, CFC's, 3H and 222Rn, along with measured stream discharge are used to estimate the groundwater inflow distribution and mean age for regional scale surveys of the Berland River in west-central Alberta. We find that groundwater entering the Berland has observable age, and that the age estimated using our stream survey is of similar order to limited samples from groundwater wells in the region. Our results show that the stream can be used as an easily accessible location to constrain the regional scale spatial distribution of groundwater age.

  16. The iliac crest in forensic age estimation: evaluation of three methods in pelvis X-rays.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartolini, Viola; Pinchi, Vilma; Gualco, Barbara; Vanin, Stefano; Chiaracane, Giusto; D'Elia, Giovanni; Norelli, Gian-Aristide; Focardi, Martina

    2018-01-01

    Age assessment in children and young adults is a relevant forensic issue. It is requested not only in evaluating criminal responsibility in youths without proper identification documents, often in relation to age thresholds, but also for release of a residency permit, and asylum seekers of minors. The analysis of the Risser sign and the iliac crest ossification process has been proposed as a useful tool for forensic age estimation. We evaluated the applicability of three different age estimation methods on a sample of 497 pelvic radiographs of Italian individuals between 10 and 25 years of age. Each method showed high reliability for both reproducibility and repeatability. The staging technique inspired by Kreitner and Kellinghaus methods (KK-MS) is easier than the Risser method in applicability, as it is not affected by the variations of ossification. We observed that all subjects who attained stage 3c of KK-MS and 5 of Risser Fr were >14 years, suggesting the benefits of these methods for that age threshold. The applicability of the area measurement method, inspired by Cameriere's approach, ranged between 12 and 20 years, but the statistical analysis showed only a moderate correlation with age. In order to evaluate the possible use of this approach it is therefore necessary to clarify and exclude external factors influencing the parameter. In conclusion, the iliac crest ossification is of interest in age estimation for forensic purposes. The evaluation of the pelvis X-ray, in addition to the other common dental and skeletal methods, could become a useful supplementary tool in age estimation for the 14 year threshold in order to fulfill forensic-level requirements.

  17. Third molar mineralization in relation to chronologic age estimation of the Han in central southern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ying; Geng, Kun; Chu, Yanhao; Xu, Mindi; Zha, Lagabaiyila

    2018-03-03

    The purpose of this study is to provide a forensic reference data about estimating chronologic age by evaluating the third molar mineralization of Han in central southern China. The mineralization degree of third molars was assessed by Demirjian's classification with modification for 2519 digital orthopantomograms (1190 males, 1329 females; age 8-23 years). The mean ages of the initial mineralization and the crown completion of third molars were around 9.66 and 13.88 years old in males and 9.52 and 14.09 years old in females. The minimum ages of apical closure were around 16 years in both sexes. Twenty-eight at stage C and stage G and 38 and 48 at stage F occurred earlier in males than in females. There was no significant difference between maxillary and mandibular teeth in males and females except that stage C in males. Two formulas were devised to estimate age based on mineralization stages and sexes. In Hunan Province, the person will probably be over age 14, when a third molar reaches the stage G. The results of the study could provide reference for age estimation in forensic cases and clinical dentistry.

  18. An assessment of the versatility of Kvaal's method of adult dental age estimation in Indians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanchan-Talreja, Preeti; Acharya, Ashith B; Naikmasur, Venkatesh G

    2012-03-01

    Radiographic dental age estimation methods are viable in the living and deceased. One such method [Kvaal et al. Forensic Sci Int 1995;74:175-85] quantified secondary dentinal deposition indirectly through measurements of tooth and pulp lengths and widths. The method is untested on non-European populations and our objective was to assess its accuracy in Indians and determine if population-specific formulae improved age estimation. Digital radiographs of 100 Indians were made using the conventional paralleling technique (n=47) and bisecting angle technique (n=53), the latter being the prevalent method of periapical radiography in India. Pulp and tooth lengths and widths were measured (using commercially available computer software) and their ratios substituted in Kvaal's formulae; also, population-specific formulae were developed by us using principal component regression analyses. The average errors of age estimation were ∼±18-20 years for the paralleling and ∼±19-21 years for the bisecting angle technique; estimates in both samples of radiographs were significantly different from actual age (p<0.001). The Indian formulae produced smaller errors for both samples (∼±11-14 years), an improvement over Kvaal's formulae. Large errors from Kvaal's formulae may owe primarily to variation in the rate of secondary dentinal deposition in Indians influenced both by environmental and genetic variation. Errors using the Indian formulae, whilst smaller, are more than in the original study and other European samples, implying large errors in age estimates in Indians irrespective of population-specific formulae. This may preclude the method's routine usage in estimating age in adult Indians. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Physiological frailty index (PFI): quantitative in-life estimate of individual biological age in mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antoch, Marina P; Wrobel, Michelle; Kuropatwinski, Karen K; Gitlin, Ilya; Leonova, Katerina I; Toshkov, Ilia; Gleiberman, Anatoli S; Hutson, Alan D; Chernova, Olga B; Gudkov, Andrei V

    2017-03-19

    The development of healthspan-extending pharmaceuticals requires quantitative estimation of age-related progressive physiological decline. In humans, individual health status can be quantitatively assessed by means of a frailty index (FI), a parameter which reflects the scale of accumulation of age-related deficits. However, adaptation of this methodology to animal models is a challenging task since it includes multiple subjective parameters. Here we report a development of a quantitative non-invasive procedure to estimate biological age of an individual animal by creating physiological frailty index (PFI). We demonstrated the dynamics of PFI increase during chronological aging of male and female NIH Swiss mice. We also demonstrated acceleration of growth of PFI in animals placed on a high fat diet, reflecting aging acceleration by obesity and provide a tool for its quantitative assessment. Additionally, we showed that PFI could reveal anti-aging effect of mTOR inhibitor rapatar (bioavailable formulation of rapamycin) prior to registration of its effects on longevity. PFI revealed substantial sex-related differences in normal chronological aging and in the efficacy of detrimental (high fat diet) or beneficial (rapatar) aging modulatory factors. Together, these data introduce PFI as a reliable, non-invasive, quantitative tool suitable for testing potential anti-aging pharmaceuticals in pre-clinical studies.

  20. Estimated inventory of plutonium and uranium radionuclides for vegetation in aged fallout areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Romney, E.M.; Wallace, A.; Kinnear, J.; Gilbert, R.O.

    1977-01-01

    Data are presented pertinent to the contamination of vegetation by plutonium and other radionuclides in aged fallout areas on the Nevada Test Site (NTS) and the Tonopah Test Range (TTR). The standing biomass of vegetation estimated by nondestructive dimensional methods varied from about 200 to 600 g/m 2 for the different fallout areas. Estimated inventories of 238 Pu, 239 Pu, 240 Pu, and 235 U in plants and their biological effects are discussed

  1. Estimating allele age and selection coefficient from time-serial data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malaspinas, Anna Sapfo; Malaspinas, Orestis; Evans, Steven N.

    2012-01-01

    of experimental or viral evolution. Time-series data should allow for a more precise inference of population genetic parameters and to test hypotheses about the recent action of natural selection. In this manuscript, we develop a likelihood method to jointly estimate the selection coefficient and the age......, it is possible to gain traction on the important problem of distinguishing selection on new mutations from selection on standing variation. In this coat color example for instance, we estimate the age of this allele, which is found to predate domestication....

  2. Comparative study of age estimation using dentinal translucency by digital and conventional methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bommannavar, Sushma; Kulkarni, Meena

    2015-01-01

    Estimating age using the dentition plays a significant role in identification of the individual in forensic cases. Teeth are one of the most durable and strongest structures in the human body. The morphology and arrangement of teeth vary from person-to-person and is unique to an individual as are the fingerprints. Therefore, the use of dentition is the method of choice in the identification of the unknown. Root dentin translucency is considered to be one of the best parameters for dental age estimation. Traditionally, root dentin translucency was measured using calipers. Recently, the use of custom built software programs have been proposed for the same. The present study describes a method to measure root dentin translucency on sectioned teeth using a custom built software program Adobe Photoshop 7.0 version (Adobe system Inc, Mountain View California). A total of 50 single rooted teeth were sectioned longitudinally to derive a 0.25 mm uniform thickness and the root dentin translucency was measured using digital and caliper methods and compared. The Gustafson's morphohistologic approach is used in this study. Correlation coefficients of translucency measurements to age were statistically significant for both the methods (P image editing software. Furthermore, this method is easy to use and less time consuming. The measurements obtained using this method are more precise and thus help in more accurate age estimation. Considering these benefits, the present study recommends the use of digital method to assess translucency for age estimation.

  3. Normative perceptual estimates for 91 healthy subjects age 60-75

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wilms, Inge Linda; Nielsen, Simon

    2014-01-01

    of Visual Attention (TVA). In addition to the estimates themselves, we present correlational data on between the estimates and self-reported demographic data and activities of daily living. The correlates suggests that age, video gaming activity and employment status may significantly impact the encoding...... speed of Visual Short-term Memory (VTSM) but not the capacity of VSTM nor the visual threshold. The estimates will be useful for future studies into the effects of various types of intervention and training on cognition in general and visual attention in particular....

  4. Raman Microspectrometry: An Alternative Method of Age Estimation from Dentin and Cementum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karuna Kumari

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Raman spectroscopy is simple, quick, sensitive and non destructive form of tissue examination that provides vital data about the structure, molecular composition and interactions within a sample. The human hard tissues like teeth and bone are able to resist decay for long even after other tissues are lost, thus have valuable forensic importance. Aim: To ascertain the known age of the teeth by analysing dentin and cementum using Raman microspectrometry and assess the accuracy of age estimation by comparison of dentin with cementum. Materials and Methods: The sound permanent extracted tooth specimens (40 of age ranging between 12-74 years were collected and sectioned longitudinally and different dentinal and cemental areas were analysed by Raman microspectrometry. The spectra of dentin and cementum were used as predictors of age estimation. For each sample, ratios were obtained for dentin and cementum areas, and Pearson’s correlation coefficient was calculated. Ratios, which had a correlation coefficient greater than 0.40 were used for further statistical analysis. This led to selection of ratios only for dentin areas, and it allowed us to develop a regression formula. Partial Least Square (PLS regression method was used for computing our model. Results: A significant correlation was observed between the actual chronological age and predicted age of the individual using dentinal areas of the tooth. A closest to the estimated result was achieved, with an error of three years between predicted and actual chorological age. Conclusion: Raman microspectrometry may be considered as an alternative to the conventional method of age estimation and contribute to the identification of individuals.

  5. Forensic individual age estimation with DNA: From initial approaches to methylation tests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freire-Aradas, A; Phillips, C; Lareu, M V

    2017-07-01

    Individual age estimation is a key factor in forensic science analysis that can provide very useful information applicable to criminal, legal, and anthropological investigations. Forensic age inference was initially based on morphological inspection or radiography and only later began to adopt molecular approaches. However, a lack of accuracy or technical problems hampered the introduction of these DNA-based methodologies in casework analysis. A turning point occurred when the epigenetic signature of DNA methylation was observed to gradually change during an individual´s lifespan. In the last four years, the number of publications reporting DNA methylation age-correlated changes has gradually risen and the forensic community now has a range of age methylation tests applicable to forensic casework. Most forensic age predictor models have been developed based on blood DNA samples, but additional tissues are now also being explored. This review assesses the most widely adopted genes harboring methylation sites, detection technologies, statistical age-predictive analyses, and potential causes of variation in age estimates. Despite the need for further work to improve predictive accuracy and establishing a broader range of tissues for which tests can analyze the most appropriate methylation sites, several forensic age predictors have now been reported that provide consistency in their prediction accuracies (predictive error of ±4 years); this makes them compelling tools with the potential to contribute key information to help guide criminal investigations. Copyright © 2017 Central Police University.

  6. Application of X-rays to dental age estimation in medico-legal practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dorota Lorkiewicz-Muszyńska

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Aim of the study: The paper addresses the use of dental age assessment methods based on radiographs in medico-legal practice. Different cases of practical application of the methods are presented including identification of human remains, dental age assessment in a living person and one archaeological case. Material and methods : The study material consisted of cases involving dental age assessment performed in the Department of Forensic Medicine, Poznan University of Medical Sciences in Poznan. Depending on the preliminary assessment of age, the Liversidge or the Kvaal et al. methods were applied. Dental age was estimated on the basis of available pantomograms. In the case of the living person, it was a radiograph supplied for expert evaluation. In the other cases, dental computed tomography was performed. Results : Dental age was successfully estimated in all of the cases. Various methods based on the analysis of X-ray images were applied. Dental age was shown to be correlated with skeletal age. Conclusions : The methods based on radiographs were demonstrated to be useful, and the results they yield are fully correlated with results of anthropological analyses.

  7. Application of X-rays to dental age estimation in medico-legal practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorkiewicz-Muszyńska, D; Przystańska, A; Kulczyk, T; Hyrchała, A; Bartecki, B; Kociemba, W; Glapiński, M; Łabęcka, M; Świderski, P

    2015-01-01

    The paper addresses the use of dental age assessment methods based on radiographs in medico-legal practice. Different cases of practical application of the methods are presented including identification of human remains, dental age assessment in a living person and one archaeological case. The study material consisted of cases involving dental age assessment performed in the Department of Forensic Medicine, Poznan University of Medical Sciences in Poznan. Depending on the preliminary assessment of age, the Liversidge or the Kvaal et al. methods were applied. Dental age was estimated on the basis of available pantomograms. In the case of the living person, it was a radiograph supplied for expert evaluation. In the other cases, dental computed tomography was performed. Dental age was successfully estimated in all of the cases. Various methods based on the analysis of X-ray images were applied. Dental age was shown to be correlated with skeletal age. The methods based on radiographs were demonstrated to be useful, and the results they yield are fully correlated with results of anthropological analyses.

  8. Demirjian's method in the estimation of age: A study on human third molars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Amitha J; Boaz, Karen; Nagesh, K R; Srikant, N; Gupta, Neha; Nandita, K P; Manaktala, Nidhi

    2015-01-01

    The primary aim of the following study is to estimate the chronological age based on the stages of third molar development following the eight stages (A to H) method of Demirjian et al. (along with two modifications-Orhan) and secondary aim is to compare third molar development with sex and age. The sample consisted of 115 orthopantomograms from South Indian subjects with known chronological age and gender. Multiple regression analysis was performed with chronological age as the dependable variable and third molar root development as independent variable. All the statistical analysis was performed using the SPSS 11.0 package (IBM ® Corporation). Statistically no significant differences were found in third molar development between males and females. Depending on the available number of wisdom teeth in an individual, R (2) varied for males from 0.21 to 0.48 and for females from 0.16 to 0.38. New equations were derived for estimating the chronological age. The chronological age of a South Indian individual between 14 and 22 years may be estimated based on the regression formulae. However, additional studies with a larger study population must be conducted to meet the need for population-based information on third molar development.

  9. Estimated Pulse Wave Velocity Calculated from Age and Mean Arterial Blood Pressure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Greve, S. V.; Laurent, Stéphane; Olsen, M. H.

    2016-01-01

    In a recently published paper, Greve et al [J Hypertens 2016;34:1279-1289] investigate whether the estimated carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (ePWV), calculated using an equation derived from the relationship between carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (cfPWV), age, and blood pressure, predict...

  10. Estimation of genetic parameters for body weight at different ages in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ONOS

    2010-08-09

    Aug 9, 2010 ... Estimation of genetic parameters for body weight at different ages in Mehraban sheep. Vali Aghaali Gamasaee1, Seyed Hasan Hafezian1,* Ahmad Ahmadi2, Hasan Baneh1, Ayyoob. Farhadi1 and Alborz Mohamadi3. 1Department of Animal Science, Faculty of Animal and Fishery Sciences, Agricultural ...

  11. Estimation of sex and age of 'virtual skeletons'-a feasibility study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grabherr, Silke [University Hospital of Lausanne, Institute of Forensic Medicine, Lausanne (Switzerland)]|[University of Bern, Institute of Forensic Medicine, Bern (Switzerland)]|[University Hospital of Lausanne, Service of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Lausanne (Switzerland); Cooper, Christine; Ulrich-Bochsler, Susi [University of Bern, Institute for the History of Medicine, Historical Anthropology, Bern (Switzerland); Uldin, Tanya [Service of Osteo-Archaeology, Aesch (Switzerland); Ross, Steffen; Oesterhelweg, Lars; Bolliger, Stephan; Thali, Michael J. [University of Bern, Institute of Forensic Medicine, Bern (Switzerland); Christe, Andreas [University of Bern, Institute of Forensic Medicine, Bern (Switzerland)]|[University of Bern, Institute of Diagnostic Radiology, Bern (Switzerland); Schnyder, Pierre [University Hospital of Lausanne, Service of Diagnostic and Interventional Radiology, Lausanne (Switzerland); Mangin, Patrice [University Hospital of Lausanne, Institute of Forensic Medicine, Lausanne (Switzerland)

    2009-02-15

    This article presents a feasibility study with the objective of investigating the potential of multi-detector computed tomography (MDCT) to estimate the bone age and sex of deceased persons. To obtain virtual skeletons, the bodies of 22 deceased persons with known age at death were scanned by MDCT using a special protocol that consisted of high-resolution imaging of the skull, shoulder girdle (including the upper half of the humeri), the symphysis pubis and the upper halves of the femora. Bone and soft-tissue reconstructions were performed in two and three dimensions. The resulting data were investigated by three anthropologists with different professional experience. Sex was determined by investigating three-dimensional models of the skull and pelvis. As a basic orientation for the age estimation, the complex method according to Nemeskeri and co-workers was applied. The final estimation was effected using additional parameters like the state of dentition, degeneration of the spine, etc., which where chosen individually by the three observers according to their experience. The results of the study show that the estimation of sex and age is possible by the use of MDCT. Virtual skeletons present an ideal collection for anthropological studies, because they are obtained in a non-invasive way and can be investigated ad infinitum. (orig.)

  12. Estimation of sex and age of ''virtual skeletons''-a feasibility study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grabherr, Silke; Cooper, Christine; Ulrich-Bochsler, Susi; Uldin, Tanya; Ross, Steffen; Oesterhelweg, Lars; Bolliger, Stephan; Thali, Michael J.; Christe, Andreas; Schnyder, Pierre; Mangin, Patrice

    2009-01-01

    This article presents a feasibility study with the objective of investigating the potential of multi-detector computed tomography (MDCT) to estimate the bone age and sex of deceased persons. To obtain virtual skeletons, the bodies of 22 deceased persons with known age at death were scanned by MDCT using a special protocol that consisted of high-resolution imaging of the skull, shoulder girdle (including the upper half of the humeri), the symphysis pubis and the upper halves of the femora. Bone and soft-tissue reconstructions were performed in two and three dimensions. The resulting data were investigated by three anthropologists with different professional experience. Sex was determined by investigating three-dimensional models of the skull and pelvis. As a basic orientation for the age estimation, the complex method according to Nemeskeri and co-workers was applied. The final estimation was effected using additional parameters like the state of dentition, degeneration of the spine, etc., which where chosen individually by the three observers according to their experience. The results of the study show that the estimation of sex and age is possible by the use of MDCT. Virtual skeletons present an ideal collection for anthropological studies, because they are obtained in a non-invasive way and can be investigated ad infinitum. (orig.)

  13. Forensic age estimation from the clavicle using 1.0 T MRI—Preliminary results

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sara Tangmose; Jensen, Karl Erik; Villa, Chiara

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: As forensic age estimations in the living are performed without medical indication, there is a need for the development of non-ionizing methods. This study investigates the use of 1.0T MRI to visualize the ossification status of the medial end of the clavicle. MATERIAL AND METHODS: T2...

  14. Development of age-estimation system using thermoluminescence. Constant rising temperature control with optimal digital control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tamaki, Shiro; Oshiro, Naoki; Yamamoto, Tetsuhiko; Kinjo, Hiroshi; Taira, Hatsuo; Tanahara, Akira.

    1994-01-01

    Thermoluminescence (TL) is a calorescence phenomenon observed while heating minerals. TL intensity depends on the total quantity of radiation dose in the past. Due to this characteristic, measuring of TL intensity of natural minerals has been paid much attention as a useful method of age-estimation in archaeological and geological fields. Since TL intensity depends on the heating rate of the specimen, a constant rising temperature control system is necessary. But, even a commercial apparatus for TL measurement usually fails the rising temperature characteristic. This paper progress a new TL age-estimating method. To establish for this, a temperature control system is designed and a measurement system for TL intensity is developed. The optimal digital feedback control algorithm based on impulse response of the system is applied to this temperature control system. The control result shows that the system can precisely control the constant rising temperature within permissible error of 1 degree for the temperature range of 150-400 degree centigrade. Then the system is introduced to TL age-estimation system of fossil-oyster. The age is estimated by calculating the proportion of the annual cumulative dose at sampling area to the sum of natural cumulative dose that obtained by integrated TL intensity measured at a constant rising temperature. This result is reasonable. (author)

  15. Estimated maximal and current brain volume predict cognitive ability in old age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royle, Natalie A; Booth, Tom; Valdés Hernández, Maria C; Penke, Lars; Murray, Catherine; Gow, Alan J; Maniega, Susana Muñoz; Starr, John; Bastin, Mark E; Deary, Ian J; Wardlaw, Joanna M

    2013-12-01

    Brain tissue deterioration is a significant contributor to lower cognitive ability in later life; however, few studies have appropriate data to establish how much influence prior brain volume and prior cognitive performance have on this association. We investigated the associations between structural brain imaging biomarkers, including an estimate of maximal brain volume, and detailed measures of cognitive ability at age 73 years in a large (N = 620), generally healthy, community-dwelling population. Cognitive ability data were available from age 11 years. We found positive associations (r) between general cognitive ability and estimated brain volume in youth (male, 0.28; females, 0.12), and in measured brain volume in later life (males, 0.27; females, 0.26). Our findings show that cognitive ability in youth is a strong predictor of estimated prior and measured current brain volume in old age but that these effects were the same for both white and gray matter. As 1 of the largest studies of associations between brain volume and cognitive ability with normal aging, this work contributes to the wider understanding of how some early-life factors influence cognitive aging. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Estimated maximal and current brain volume predict cognitive ability in old age

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royle, Natalie A.; Booth, Tom; Valdés Hernández, Maria C.; Penke, Lars; Murray, Catherine; Gow, Alan J.; Maniega, Susana Muñoz; Starr, John; Bastin, Mark E.; Deary, Ian J.; Wardlaw, Joanna M.

    2013-01-01

    Brain tissue deterioration is a significant contributor to lower cognitive ability in later life; however, few studies have appropriate data to establish how much influence prior brain volume and prior cognitive performance have on this association. We investigated the associations between structural brain imaging biomarkers, including an estimate of maximal brain volume, and detailed measures of cognitive ability at age 73 years in a large (N = 620), generally healthy, community-dwelling population. Cognitive ability data were available from age 11 years. We found positive associations (r) between general cognitive ability and estimated brain volume in youth (male, 0.28; females, 0.12), and in measured brain volume in later life (males, 0.27; females, 0.26). Our findings show that cognitive ability in youth is a strong predictor of estimated prior and measured current brain volume in old age but that these effects were the same for both white and gray matter. As 1 of the largest studies of associations between brain volume and cognitive ability with normal aging, this work contributes to the wider understanding of how some early-life factors influence cognitive aging. PMID:23850342

  17. Comparative study of age estimation using dentinal translucency by digital and conventional methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bommannavar, Sushma; Kulkarni, Meena

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Estimating age using the dentition plays a significant role in identification of the individual in forensic cases. Teeth are one of the most durable and strongest structures in the human body. The morphology and arrangement of teeth vary from person-to-person and is unique to an individual as are the fingerprints. Therefore, the use of dentition is the method of choice in the identification of the unknown. Root dentin translucency is considered to be one of the best parameters for dental age estimation. Traditionally, root dentin translucency was measured using calipers. Recently, the use of custom built software programs have been proposed for the same. Objectives: The present study describes a method to measure root dentin translucency on sectioned teeth using a custom built software program Adobe Photoshop 7.0 version (Adobe system Inc, Mountain View California). Materials and Methods: A total of 50 single rooted teeth were sectioned longitudinally to derive a 0.25 mm uniform thickness and the root dentin translucency was measured using digital and caliper methods and compared. The Gustafson's morphohistologic approach is used in this study. Results: Correlation coefficients of translucency measurements to age were statistically significant for both the methods (P < 0.125) and linear regression equations derived from both methods revealed better ability of the digital method to assess age. Conclusion: The custom built software program used in the present study is commercially available and widely used image editing software. Furthermore, this method is easy to use and less time consuming. The measurements obtained using this method are more precise and thus help in more accurate age estimation. Considering these benefits, the present study recommends the use of digital method to assess translucency for age estimation. PMID:25709325

  18. Probabilistic graphical models to deal with age estimation of living persons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sironi, Emanuele; Gallidabino, Matteo; Weyermann, Céline; Taroni, Franco

    2016-03-01

    Due to the rise of criminal, civil and administrative judicial situations involving people lacking valid identity documents, age estimation of living persons has become an important operational procedure for numerous forensic and medicolegal services worldwide. The chronological age of a given person is generally estimated from the observed degree of maturity of some selected physical attributes by means of statistical methods. However, their application in the forensic framework suffers from some conceptual and practical drawbacks, as recently claimed in the specialised literature. The aim of this paper is therefore to offer an alternative solution for overcoming these limits, by reiterating the utility of a probabilistic Bayesian approach for age estimation. This approach allows one to deal in a transparent way with the uncertainty surrounding the age estimation process and to produce all the relevant information in the form of posterior probability distribution about the chronological age of the person under investigation. Furthermore, this probability distribution can also be used for evaluating in a coherent way the possibility that the examined individual is younger or older than a given legal age threshold having a particular legal interest. The main novelty introduced by this work is the development of a probabilistic graphical model, i.e. a Bayesian network, for dealing with the problem at hand. The use of this kind of probabilistic tool can significantly facilitate the application of the proposed methodology: examples are presented based on data related to the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis. The reliability and the advantages of this probabilistic tool are presented and discussed.

  19. Absolute risk, absolute risk reduction and relative risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose Andres Calvache

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This article illustrates the epidemiological concepts of absolute risk, absolute risk reduction and relative risk through a clinical example. In addition, it emphasizes the usefulness of these concepts in clinical practice, clinical research and health decision-making process.

  20. Weight Estimation Tool for Children Aged 6 to 59 Months in Limited-Resource Settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ralston, Mark E; Myatt, Mark A

    2016-01-01

    A simple, reliable anthropometric tool for rapid estimation of weight in children would be useful in limited-resource settings where current weight estimation tools are not uniformly reliable, nearly all global under-five mortality occurs, severe acute malnutrition is a significant contributor in approximately one-third of under-five mortality, and a weight scale may not be immediately available in emergencies to first-response providers. To determine the accuracy and precision of mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) and height as weight estimation tools in children under five years of age in low-to-middle income countries. This was a retrospective observational study. Data were collected in 560 nutritional surveys during 1992-2006 using a modified Expanded Program of Immunization two-stage cluster sample design. Locations with high prevalence of acute and chronic malnutrition. A total of 453,990 children met inclusion criteria (age 6-59 months; weight ≤ 25 kg; MUAC 80-200 mm) and exclusion criteria (bilateral pitting edema; biologically implausible weight-for-height z-score (WHZ), weight-for-age z-score (WAZ), and height-for-age z-score (HAZ) values). Weight was estimated using Broselow Tape, Hong Kong formula, and database MUAC alone, height alone, and height and MUAC combined. Mean percentage difference between true and estimated weight, proportion of estimates accurate to within ± 25% and ± 10% of true weight, weighted Kappa statistic, and Bland-Altman bias were reported as measures of tool accuracy. Standard deviation of mean percentage difference and Bland-Altman 95% limits of agreement were reported as measures of tool precision. Database height was a more accurate and precise predictor of weight compared to Broselow Tape 2007 [B], Broselow Tape 2011 [A], and MUAC. Mean percentage difference between true and estimated weight was +0.49% (SD = 10.33%); proportion of estimates accurate to within ± 25% of true weight was 97.36% (95% CI 97.40%, 97.46%); and

  1. Weight Estimation Tool for Children Aged 6 to 59 Months in Limited-Resource Settings.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark E Ralston

    Full Text Available A simple, reliable anthropometric tool for rapid estimation of weight in children would be useful in limited-resource settings where current weight estimation tools are not uniformly reliable, nearly all global under-five mortality occurs, severe acute malnutrition is a significant contributor in approximately one-third of under-five mortality, and a weight scale may not be immediately available in emergencies to first-response providers.To determine the accuracy and precision of mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC and height as weight estimation tools in children under five years of age in low-to-middle income countries.This was a retrospective observational study. Data were collected in 560 nutritional surveys during 1992-2006 using a modified Expanded Program of Immunization two-stage cluster sample design.Locations with high prevalence of acute and chronic malnutrition.A total of 453,990 children met inclusion criteria (age 6-59 months; weight ≤ 25 kg; MUAC 80-200 mm and exclusion criteria (bilateral pitting edema; biologically implausible weight-for-height z-score (WHZ, weight-for-age z-score (WAZ, and height-for-age z-score (HAZ values.Weight was estimated using Broselow Tape, Hong Kong formula, and database MUAC alone, height alone, and height and MUAC combined.Mean percentage difference between true and estimated weight, proportion of estimates accurate to within ± 25% and ± 10% of true weight, weighted Kappa statistic, and Bland-Altman bias were reported as measures of tool accuracy. Standard deviation of mean percentage difference and Bland-Altman 95% limits of agreement were reported as measures of tool precision.Database height was a more accurate and precise predictor of weight compared to Broselow Tape 2007 [B], Broselow Tape 2011 [A], and MUAC. Mean percentage difference between true and estimated weight was +0.49% (SD = 10.33%; proportion of estimates accurate to within ± 25% of true weight was 97.36% (95% CI 97.40%, 97

  2. [Problems associated with age estimation of underage persons who appear in child pornography materials].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Łabecka, Marzena; Lorkiewicz-Muszyńska, Dorota; Jarzabek-Bielecka, Grazyna

    2011-01-01

    Among opinions issued by the Forensic Medicine Department, Medical Science University in Poznan, in the last six years, there are opinions concerning age estimation in child pornography materials. The issue subject to research is indicating persons under the age of 15 years in pornographic materials, since possession of pornographic materials featuring underage persons is considered a crime and is subject to article 202 of the Penal Code. The estimation of the age of teenagers based on secondary and tertiary sexual characteristics is increasingly more difficult and the available data in professional literature regarding the standard time of development differ among various authors of such studies. In the report, an attempt has been made at determining the agreement regarding different characteristics in the data included in the Tanner's scale, which has been modified to accommodate the research done on persons registered by electronic means. The modified scale, which up to now has been used in research of registered subjects in classified public prosecutors' materials, has been employed in children seen in a pediatric outpatient department. The goal has been a comparison of the outcome of the research to prove its usefulness so that in the future, the modified scale could be used as a research tool in estimation of age of persons appearing in pornography materials. medical forms of 205 children seen in a pediatric outpatient department, based on the scale created by the present authors us and later processed using Excel.

  3. Development of a methylation marker set for forensic age estimation using analysis of public methylation data and the Agena Bioscience EpiTYPER system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freire-Aradas, A; Phillips, C; Mosquera-Miguel, A; Girón-Santamaría, L; Gómez-Tato, A; Casares de Cal, M; Álvarez-Dios, J; Ansede-Bermejo, J; Torres-Español, M; Schneider, P M; Pośpiech, E; Branicki, W; Carracedo, Á; Lareu, M V

    2016-09-01

    Individual age estimation has the potential to provide key information that could enhance and extend DNA intelligence tools. Following predictive tests for externally visible characteristics developed in recent years, prediction of age could guide police investigations and improve the assessment of age-related phenotype expression patterns such as hair colour changes and early onset of male pattern baldness. DNA methylation at CpG positions has emerged as the most promising DNA tests to ascertain the individual age of the donor of a biological contact trace. Although different methodologies are available to detect DNA methylation, EpiTYPER technology (Agena Bioscience, formerly Sequenom) provides useful characteristics that can be applied as a discovery tool in localized regions of the genome. In our study, a total of twenty-two candidate genomic regions, selected from the assessment of publically available data from the Illumina HumanMethylation 450 BeadChip, had a total of 177 CpG sites with informative methylation patterns that were subsequently investigated in detail. From the methylation analyses made, a novel age prediction model based on a multivariate quantile regression analysis was built using the seven highest age-correlated loci of ELOVL2, ASPA, PDE4C, FHL2, CCDC102B, C1orf132 and chr16:85395429. The detected methylation levels in these loci provide a median absolute age prediction error of ±3.07years and a percentage of prediction error relative to the age of 6.3%. We report the predictive performance of the developed model using cross validation of a carefully age-graded training set of 725 European individuals and a test set of 52 monozygotic twin pairs. The multivariate quantile regression age predictor, using the CpG sites selected in this study, has been placed in the open-access Snipper forensic classification website. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Application of age estimation methods based on teeth eruption: how easy is Olze method to use?

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Angelis, D; Gibelli, D; Merelli, V; Botto, M; Ventura, F; Cattaneo, C

    2014-09-01

    The development of new methods for age estimation has become with time an urgent issue because of the increasing immigration, in order to estimate accurately the age of those subjects who lack valid identity documents. Methods of age estimation are divided in skeletal and dental ones, and among the latter, Olze's method is one of the most recent, since it was introduced in 2010 with the aim to identify the legal age of 18 and 21 years by evaluating the different stages of development of the periodontal ligament of the third molars with closed root apices. The present study aims at verifying the applicability of the method to the daily forensic practice, with special focus on the interobserver repeatability. Olze's method was applied by three different observers (two physicians and one dentist without a specific training in Olze's method) to 61 orthopantomograms from subjects of mixed ethnicity aged between 16 and 51 years. The analysis took into consideration the lower third molars. The results provided by the different observers were then compared in order to verify the interobserver error. Results showed that interobserver error varies between 43 and 57 % for the right lower third molar (M48) and between 23 and 49 % for the left lower third molar (M38). Chi-square test did not show significant differences according to the side of teeth and type of professional figure. The results prove that Olze's method is not easy to apply when used by not adequately trained personnel, because of an intrinsic interobserver error. Since it is however a crucial method in age determination, it should be used only by experienced observers after an intensive and specific training.

  5. Age estimation using pulp/tooth area ratio in maxillary canines-A digital image analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juneja, Manjushree; Devi, Yashoda B K; Rakesh, N; Juneja, Saurabh

    2014-09-01

    Determination of age of a subject is one of the most important aspects of medico-legal cases and anthropological research. Radiographs can be used to indirectly measure the rate of secondary dentine deposition which is depicted by reduction in the pulp area. In this study, 200 patients of Karnataka aged between 18-72 years were selected for the study. Panoramic radiographs were made and indirectly digitized. Radiographic images of maxillary canines (RIC) were processed using a computer-aided drafting program (ImageJ). The variables pulp/root length (p), pulp/tooth length (r), pulp/root width at enamel-cementum junction (ECJ) level (a), pulp/root width at mid-root level (c), pulp/root width at midpoint level between ECJ level and mid-root level (b) and pulp/tooth area ratio (AR) were recorded. All the morphological variables including gender were statistically analyzed to derive regression equation for estimation of age. It was observed that 2 variables 'AR' and 'b' contributed significantly to the fit and were included in the regression model, yielding the formula: Age = 87.305-480.455(AR)+48.108(b). Statistical analysis indicated that the regression equation with selected variables explained 96% of total variance with the median of the residuals of 0.1614 years and standard error of estimate of 3.0186 years. There is significant correlation between age and morphological variables 'AR' and 'b' and the derived population specific regression equation can be potentially used for estimation of chronological age of individuals of Karnataka origin.

  6. U.S. Census Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for Selected Age Groups by Sex for the United States

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — 2010-2015. U.S. Census Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for Selected Age Groups by Sex for the United States. The estimates are based on the 2010 Census...

  7. U.S. Census Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for Selected Age Groups by Sex for the United States

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — 2010-2016. U.S. Census Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for Selected Age Groups by Sex for the United States. The estimates are based on the 2010 Census...

  8. COMPARISON OF AGE ESTIMATES FROM VARIOUS HARD PARTS FOR REDFIN PERCH, Percafluviatilis, IN TASMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irwan Jatmiko

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Whole otoliths, sectioned otoliths, scales and vertebrae were used to select the most suitable for age determination of redfin perch, Percafluviatilis. Redfin perch were sampled from Trevallyn Lake and Brushy Lagoon using fyke nets, gillnets, electrofishing and rod and line angling. Age estimates were assessed for comparison between readings and among structures. One-wayANOVA of readability scores highlighted that sectioned otolith was the most obvious compare to other hard parts. Sectioned otoliths also showed the highest (93.9% agreement between readings, followed by vertebrae (68.7, scales (38.8 and whole otoliths (29.9. Furthermore, there were no significantly different (p>0.05 between first and second readings from sectioned otolith and vertebrae but significantly different (p <0.05 to those from scales and whole otoliths. When sectioned otoliths’ ages were compared with other structures, vertebrae showed the highest (47.6% agreement to those followed by scales (25.2% and whole otoliths (20.4%. Age estimates from sectioned otoliths were significantly different (p<0.05 to the values obtained from vertebrae, scales and whole otoliths.This finding demonstrated that sectioned otoliths are the best hard part for age determination for redfin perch in Tasmania.

  9. [Hygienic estimation a state of nutrition of infant and preschool children age of city of Murmansk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dmitrievskaia, S V; Istomin, A V; Korolev, A A; Lukicheva, L A; Nikitenko, E I

    2004-01-01

    The present research was directed on study of an actual meal and status of nutrition of children in the age of from birth till 5 years living in Murmansk (region of Far North). 998 children were surveyed. At an estimation of an actual meal of children the data about breast feeding are received, the basic nutrients misbalance of structure of diets of children are established, and their reasons are analyzed. On the basis of the received data the regional recommendations for organization of a healthy meal in children's preschool establishments and program of hygienic training of the parents to skills of a balanced diet of children of early and junior age were developed.

  10. Estimated inventory of plutonium and uranium radionuclides for vegetation in aged fallout areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Romney, E.M.; Gilbert, R.O.; Wallace, A.; Kinnear, J.

    1976-02-01

    Data are presented on the contamination of vegetation by 239 Pu, 240 Pu, and other radionuclides in aged fallout areas on the Nevada Test Site (NTS) and the Tonopah Test Range (TTR). Comparisons of soil and vegetation inventory estimates indicate that the standing vegetation contributes an insignificant portion of the total amount of 239-240 Pu present in these aged fallout areas. The amounts of Pu available for vegetation-transport to animals grazing on-site would appear to be relatively small in comparison to the total amounts deposited upon soil. Findings indicate that most of the contaminant found on vegetation probably is attributable to resuspendable materials

  11. A developmental study of latent absolute pitch memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jakubowski, Kelly; Müllensiefen, Daniel; Stewart, Lauren

    2017-03-01

    The ability to recall the absolute pitch level of familiar music (latent absolute pitch memory) is widespread in adults, in contrast to the rare ability to label single pitches without a reference tone (overt absolute pitch memory). The present research investigated the developmental profile of latent absolute pitch (AP) memory and explored individual differences related to this ability. In two experiments, 288 children from 4 to12 years of age performed significantly above chance at recognizing the absolute pitch level of familiar melodies. No age-related improvement or decline, nor effects of musical training, gender, or familiarity with the stimuli were found in regard to latent AP task performance. These findings suggest that latent AP memory is a stable ability that is developed from as early as age 4 and persists into adulthood.

  12. Estimating Age-Dependent Extinction: Contrasting Evidence from Fossils and Phylogenies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagen, Oskar; Andermann, Tobias; Quental, Tiago B; Antonelli, Alexandre; Silvestro, Daniele

    2018-05-01

    The estimation of diversification rates is one of the most vividly debated topics in modern systematics, with considerable controversy surrounding the power of phylogenetic and fossil-based approaches in estimating extinction. Van Valen's seminal work from 1973 proposed the "Law of constant extinction," which states that the probability of extinction of taxa is not dependent on their age. This assumption of age-independent extinction has prevailed for decades with its assessment based on survivorship curves, which, however, do not directly account for the incompleteness of the fossil record, and have rarely been applied at the species level. Here, we present a Bayesian framework to estimate extinction rates from the fossil record accounting for age-dependent extinction (ADE). Our approach, unlike previous implementations, explicitly models unobserved species and accounts for the effects of fossil preservation on the observed longevity of sampled lineages. We assess the performance and robustness of our method through extensive simulations and apply it to a fossil data set of terrestrial Carnivora spanning the past 40 myr. We find strong evidence of ADE, as we detect the extinction rate to be highest in young species and declining with increasing species age. For comparison, we apply a recently developed analogous ADE model to a dated phylogeny of extant Carnivora. Although the phylogeny-based analysis also infers ADE, it indicates that the extinction rate, instead, increases with increasing taxon age. The estimated mean species longevity also differs substantially, with the fossil-based analyses estimating 2.0 myr, in contrast to 9.8 myr derived from the phylogeny-based inference. Scrutinizing these discrepancies, we find that both fossil and phylogeny-based ADE models are prone to high error rates when speciation and extinction rates increase or decrease through time. However, analyses of simulated and empirical data show that fossil-based inferences are more

  13. Accuracy of the estimation of dental age in comparison with chronological age in a Spanish sample of 2641 living subjects using the Demirjian and Nolla methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melo, María; Ata-Ali, Javier

    2017-01-01

    Age estimation is an important procedure in forensic medicine and is carried out for a number of reasons. For living persons, age estimation is performed in order to assess whether a child has attained the age of criminal responsibility, in scenarios involving rape, kidnapping or marriage, in premature births, adoption procedures, illegal immigration, pediatric endocrine diseases and orthodontic malocclusion, as well as in circumstances in which the birth certificate is not available or the records are suspect. According to data from the UNHCR (United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees), the number of people seeking refugee status continued to increase in the last years, driven by the wars in Syria and Iraq, as well as by conflict and instability in Afghanistan, Eritrea and elsewhere. The objective of this study is to compare the accuracy of estimating dental age versus chronological age using the Nolla and Demirjian methods in a Spanish population. A final sample of 2641 panoramic X-rays corresponding to Spanish patients (1322 males and 1319 females) between 7-21 years of age was analyzed. Dental age was assessed using the Nolla and Demirjian methods, establishing comparisons with mean chronological age based on the Student t-test for paired samples, followed by the generation of a linear regression model. Both methods showed slight discrepancy between dental and chronological age. On examining the reproducibility of the Nolla and Demirjian methods, technical errors of 0.84% and 0.62%, respectively, were observed. On average, the Nolla method was found to estimate an age 0.213years younger than the chronological age, while the Demirjian method estimated an age 0.853years older than the chronological age. Linear combination of the mean Nolla and Demirjian estimates increased the predictive capacity to 99.2%. In conclusion the Nolla and Demirjian methods were found to be accurate in estimating chronological age from dental age in a Spanish population. The error

  14. Age estimation based on pulp/tooth volume ratio measured on cone-beam CT images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulsahi, Ayse; Kulah, Cemal Kivanc; Bakirarar, Batuhan; Gulen, Orhan; Kamburoglu, Kivanc

    2018-01-01

    After tooth eruption, the size of the pulp cavity decreases with age owing to deposition of secondary dentine. The aim of this study was to investigate the relation between the chronological age and the ratio of pulp volume (PV) to tooth volume (TV) measurements using CBCT images of single rooted teeth. Maxillary anterior, canine and mandibular canine/premolar CBCT scans of patients older than 15 years of age were collected from the archives between 2013 and 2015 years. Patients with CBCT scans of teeth were seen in detail and patients with known chronological age were included. Teeth with caries, filling or crown restorations, periapical pathologies or pulps that could not be identified were excluded. Consequently, 204 patients with 655 teeth were evaluated. The PV and the TV of each tooth was measured and then the PV/TV ratio was calculated. Simple linear regression analysis was performed in order to predict age estimation by using PV/TV. The PV/TV of all teeth ranged between 0.01 and 0.08. A negative correlation was found between the PV/TV ratio and age (p 0.05). This study revealed that PV/TV ratio was not gender dependent and the strongest correlation was found between the age and PV/TV ratio measured on maxillary central incisors than other teeth.

  15. Three-dimensional analysis of third molar development to estimate age of majority.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Márquez-Ruiz, Ana Belén; Treviño-Tijerina, María Concepción; González-Herrera, Lucas; Sánchez, Belén; González-Ramírez, Amanda Rocío; Valenzuela, Aurora

    2017-09-01

    Third molars are one of the few biological markers available for age estimation in undocumented juveniles close the legal age of majority, assuming an age of 18years as the most frequent legal demarcation between child and adult status. To obtain more accurate visualization and evaluation of third molar mineralization patterns from computed tomography images, a new software application, DentaVol©, was developed. Third molar mineralization according to qualitative (Demirjian's maturational stage) and quantitative parameters (third molar volume) of dental development was assessed in multi-slice helical computed tomography images of both maxillary arches displayed by DentaVol© from 135 individuals (62 females and 73 males) aged between 14 and 23years. Intra- and inter-observer agreement values were remarkably high for both evaluation procedures and for all third molars. A linear correlation between third molar mineralization and chronological age was found, with third molar maturity occurring earlier in males than in females. Assessment of dental development with both procedures, by using DentaVol© software, can be considered a good indicator of age of majority (18years or older) in all third molars. Our results indicated that virtual computed tomography imaging can be considered a valid alternative to orthopantomography for evaluations of third molar mineralization, and therefore a complementary tool for determining the age of majority. Copyright © 2017 The Chartered Society of Forensic Sciences. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Why Was Kelvin's Estimate of the Earth's Age Wrong?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovatt, Ian; Syed, M. Qasim

    2014-01-01

    This is a companion to our previous paper in which we give a published example, based primarily on Perry's work, of a graph of ln "y" versus "t" when "y" is an exponential function of "t". This work led us to the idea that Lord Kelvin's (William Thomson's) estimate of the Earth's age was…

  17. Correcting anthropogenic ocean heat uptake estimates for the Little Ice Age

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gebbie, Geoffrey

    2017-04-01

    Estimates of anthropogenic ocean heat uptake typically assume that the ocean was in equilibrium during the pre-industrial era. Recent reconstructions of the Common Era, however, show a multi-century surface cooling trend before the Industrial Revolution. Using a time-evolving state estimation method, we find that the 1750 C.E. ocean must have been out of equilibrium in order to fit the H.M.S. Challenger, WOCE, and Argo hydrographic data. When the disequilibrated ocean conditions are taken into account, the inferred ocean heat uptake from 1750-2014 C.E. is revised due to the deep ocean memory of Little Ice Age surface forcing. These effects of ocean disequilibrium should also be considered when interpreting climate sensitivity estimates.

  18. Validation of reference data on wisdom tooth mineralization and eruption for forensic age estimation in living persons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheurer, Eva; Quehenberger, Franz; Mund, Michael T; Merkens, Heiko; Yen, Kathrin

    2011-09-01

    Estimation of dental age is an important part of forensic age estimation in living persons. As the quality of the values given in population-specific reference studies has a great impact on the estimation, the aim of this study was to validate reference data for wisdom teeth mineralization and eruption of a German population concerning the diagnosis of the age limit of 18 years in persons with known age. Mineralization and eruption was evaluated in 307 orthopantomograms of Central European subjects aged 17.5-18.5 years. Dental age was estimated using reference data and compared to chronological age. Statistical methods were used to analyze the differences and to propose adjusted reference values. Estimation of dental age relying on mineralization resulted in overestimations of 2 years on average in 76% of the males and 82% of the females. Using eruption, all men and 75% of the women were overestimated by up to 7 years. The differences between estimated and chronological age in both men and women were associated with the mineralization and eruption stage, respectively. The higher the stage, the higher was the risk of overestimation. The mineralization stages up to stage E were associated with underestimations. Using the proposed adjusted reference values resulted in more accurate estimations of dental age. Validation of reference values for dental age estimation showed great overestimations resulting in high error rates with numerous persons being younger than the estimated dental age. Adjustments are proposed which reduce differences between estimated dental age and chronological age.

  19. Uncertainty in age-specific harvest estimates and consequences for white-tailed deer management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collier, B.A.; Krementz, D.G.

    2007-01-01

    age classes. Thus, we suggest that using harvest proportions for management planning and evaluation should be viewed with caution. In addition, we recommend that managers focus more attention on estimation of age-specific harvest rates, and modeling approaches which combine harvest rates with information from harvested individuals to further increase their ability to effectively manage deer populations under selective harvest programs. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Stratigraphy, correlation, and age estimates for fossils from Area 123, Koobi Fora.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feibel, Craig S; Lepre, Christopher J; Quinn, Rhonda L

    2009-08-01

    Geological data from the Bura Hasuma region at Koobi Fora provide important constraints for estimating the ages of hominin fossils recovered there, including the cranium KNM-ER 1813. Strata of the upper Burgi, KBS, and Okote members in this part of Koobi Fora reflect three depositional regimes driven by changing paleogeography through time. The upper Burgi and lowermost KBS sequence in the southern Bura Hasuma region accumulated in a lacustrine to delta front setting, with highly localized depositional patterns, limiting the lateral extent of lithostratigraphic markers. Farther north, uppermost upper Burgi through KBS member strata document a fluctuating lake margin, with complex facies patterns. This interval is marked by laterally extensive lithostratigraphic markers, including molluscan packstones, beach sandstones, and stromatolite beds. The uppermost KBS and Okote members show a transition to dominantly fluvial character, with localized and discontinuous accumulation. An age model for the richly fossiliferous Area 123 sequence demonstrates the complexity of terrestrial accumulation patterns. Early lacustrine and delta front accumulation is marked by fairly continuous sedimentation, and high accumulation rates (up to ca. 91 cm/k.yr.). The fluctuating lake margin interval reflects lower sedimentation rates coupled with intervals of exposure, decreasing accumulation significantly (to ca. 13 cm/k.yr.). The capping fluvial interval is marked by significant erosion surfaces, breaks which may drop the overall accumulation rate even lower (ca. 0.3 cm/k.yr.). The data provided here establish a geological framework at odds with a recent proposal of ages considerably younger (by ca. 250 k.yr.) for many of the fossils from Area 123 and elsewhere. Tests of age models demonstrate that the younger ages are not possible. While minor refinements to age estimates for fossils are indicated by improved chronostratigraphic control, in the case of KNM-ER 1813, an age of younger

  1. Maternal education and stillbirth: estimating gestational-age-specific and cause-specific associations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auger, Nathalie; Delézire, Pauline; Harper, Sam; Platt, Robert W

    2012-03-01

    Associations between risk factors and perinatal outcomes may be biased at preterm gestational ages, if preterm delivery behaves as an effect modifier due to other unmeasured factors in the causal pathway. We evaluated whether fetuses-at-risk denominators could be used in regression models instead of conventional denominators to obtain less biased estimates of the association between maternal education and stillbirth at preterm gestational intervals. Data included 2,143,134 live-born and 8946 stillborn singletons from 1981 through 2006 in Québec, Canada. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were estimated for the relationship between education and stillbirth according to cause of fetal death, adjusting for maternal age, marital status, home language, parity, and period. We examined associations for 4 gestational intervals (education at all gestational intervals. Using conventional denominators, low education (relative to high education) was more strongly associated with term than preterm stillbirth and was apparently protective at education was more strongly associated with preterm stillbirth than term stillbirth, even at education was most strongly associated with diabetic-related stillbirth at ≥28 weeks (odds ratio = 5.04) relative to high education. Low education is associated with stillbirth throughout gestation, especially diabetic-related stillbirth. Use of fetuses-at-risk denominators in regression models can avoid potentially biased estimates obtained with conventional denominators at preterm gestational ages.

  2. Estimated incidence of pertussis in people aged <50 years in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chi-Chang; Balderston McGuiness, Catherine; Krishnarajah, Girishanthy; Blanchette, Christopher M.; Wang, Yuanyuan; Sun, Kainan; Buck, Philip O.

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT The introduction of pertussis vaccination in the United States (US) in the 1940s has greatly reduced its burden. However, the incidence of pertussis is difficult to quantify, as many cases are not laboratory-confirmed or reported, particularly in adults. This study estimated pertussis incidence in a commercially insured US population aged pertussis or cough illness using International Classification of Diseases (ICD-9) codes, a commercial outpatient laboratory database for patients with a pertussis laboratory test, and the Centers for Disease Control influenza surveillance database. US national pertussis incidence was projected using 3 methods: (1) diagnosed pertussis, defined as a claim for pertussis (ICD-9 033.0, 033.9, 484.3) during 2008–2013; (2) based on proxy pertussis predictive logistic regression models; (3) using the fraction of cough illness (ICD-9 033.0, 033.9, 484.3, 786.2, 466.0, 466.1, 487.1) attributed to laboratory-confirmed pertussis, estimated by time series linear regression models. Method 1 gave a projected annual incidence of diagnosed pertussis of 9/100,000, which was highest in those aged pertussis of 649/100,000, approximately 58–93 times higher than method 1 depending on the year. These estimations, which are consistent with considerable underreporting of pertussis in people aged pertussis burden. PMID:27246119

  3. Maintenance Management Support Systems for component aging estimation at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimizu, Shunichi; Ando, Yasumasa; Morioka, Toshihiko; Okuzumi, Naoaki

    1991-01-01

    Maintenance Management Support Systems (MMSSs) for nuclear power plants have been developed using component aging estimation methods and decision tree analysis for maintenance planning. The former evaluates actual component reliability through statistical analysis on field maintenance data. The latter provides preventive maintenance (PM) planning guidance using heuristic expert knowledge and estimated reliability parameters. The following aspects have been investigated: (1) A systematic and effective method of managing components/parts design information and field maintenance data (2) A method for estimating component aging based on a statistical analysis of field maintenance data (3) A method for providing PM planning guidance using estimated component reliability/performance parameters and decision tree analysis. Based on these investigations, two MMSSs were developed. One deals with 'general maintenance data', which are common to all component types and are amenable to common data handling. The other system deals with 'specific maintenance data', which are specific to an individual component type. Both systems provide PM planning guidance for PM cycles propriety and the PM work priority. The function of these systems were verified using simulated maintenance data. (author)

  4. Hierarchical Bayesian analysis to incorporate age uncertainty in growth curve analysis and estimates of age from length: Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus) carcasses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwarz, L.K.; Runge, M.C.

    2009-01-01

    Age estimation of individuals is often an integral part of species management research, and a number of ageestimation techniques are commonly employed. Often, the error in these techniques is not quantified or accounted for in other analyses, particularly in growth curve models used to describe physiological responses to environment and human impacts. Also, noninvasive, quick, and inexpensive methods to estimate age are needed. This research aims to provide two Bayesian methods to (i) incorporate age uncertainty into an age-length Schnute growth model and (ii) produce a method from the growth model to estimate age from length. The methods are then employed for Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus) carcasses. After quantifying the uncertainty in the aging technique (counts of ear bone growth layers), we fit age-length data to the Schnute growth model separately by sex and season. Independent prior information about population age structure and the results of the Schnute model are then combined to estimate age from length. Results describing the age-length relationship agree with our understanding of manatee biology. The new methods allow us to estimate age, with quantified uncertainty, for 98% of collected carcasses: 36% from ear bones, 62% from length.

  5. Mineralization of mandibular third molars can estimate chronological age--Brazilian indices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Oliveira, Fernando Toledo; Capelozza, Ana Lúcia Álvares; Lauris, José Roberto Pereira; de Bullen, Izabel Regina Fischer Rubira

    2012-06-10

    Forensic age estimation is an important element of anthropological research, as it produces one of the primary sources of data that researchers use to establish the identity of a person living or the identity of unknown bodily remains. The aim of this study was to determine if the chronology of third molar mineralization could be an accurate indicator of estimated age in a sample Brazilian population. If so, mineralization could determine the probability of an individual being 18 years or older. The study evaluated 407 panoramic radiographs of males and females from the past 5 years in order to assess the mineralization status of the mandibular third molars. The evaluation was carried out using an adaptation of Demirjian's system. The results indicated a strong correlation between chronological age and the mineralization of the mandibular third molars. The results indicated that modern Brazilian generation tends to demonstrate an earlier mandibular third molar mineralization than older Brazilian generation and people of other nationalities. Males reached developmental stages slightly earlier than females, but statistically significant differences between the sex were not found. The probability that an individual with third molar mineralization stage H had reached an age of 18 years or older was 96.8-98.6% for males and females, respectively. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Foraminiferal faunal estimates of paleotemperature: Circumventing the no-analog problem yields cool ice age tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mix, A.C.; Morey, A.E.; Pisias, N.G.; Hostetler, S.W.

    1999-01-01

    The sensitivity of the tropics to climate change, particularly the amplitude of glacial-to-interglacial changes in sea surface temperature (SST), is one of the great controversies in paleoclimatology. Here we reassess faunal estimates of ice age SSTs, focusing on the problem of no-analog planktonic foraminiferal assemblages in the equatorial oceans that confounds both classical transfer function and modern analog methods. A new calibration strategy developed here, which uses past variability of species to define robust faunal assemblages, solves the no-analog problem and reveals ice age cooling of 5??to 6??C in the equatorial current systems of the Atlantic and eastern Pacific Oceans. Classical transfer functions underestimated temperature changes in some areas of the tropical oceans because core-top assemblages misrepresented the ice age faunal assemblages. Our finding is consistent with some geochemical estimates and model predictions of greater ice age cooling in the tropics than was inferred by Climate: Long-Range Investigation, Mapping, and Prediction (CLIMAP) [1981] and thus may help to resolve a long-standing controversy. Our new foraminiferal transfer function suggests that such cooling was limited to the equatorial current systems, however, and supports CLIMAP's inference of stability of the subtropical gyre centers.

  7. Estimation of Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions considering Aging and Climate Change in Residential Sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, M.; Park, C.; Park, J. H.; Jung, T. Y.; Lee, D. K.

    2015-12-01

    The impacts of climate change, particularly that of rising temperatures, are being observed across the globe and are expected to further increase. To counter this phenomenon, numerous nations are focusing on the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Because energy demand management is considered as a key factor in emissions reduction, it is necessary to estimate energy consumption and GHG emissions in relation to climate change. Further, because South Korea is the world's fastest nation to become aged, demographics have also become instrumental in the accurate estimation of energy demands and emissions. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to estimate energy consumption and GHG emissions in the residential sectors of South Korea with regard to climate change and aging to build more accurate strategies for energy demand management and emissions reduction goals. This study, which was stablished with 2010 and 2050 as the base and target years, respectively, was divided into a two-step process. The first step evaluated the effects of aging and climate change on energy demand, and the second estimated future energy use and GHG emissions through projected scenarios. First, aging characteristics and climate change factors were analyzed by using the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) decomposition analysis and the application of historical data. In the analysis of changes in energy use, the effects of activity, structure, and intensity were considered; the degrees of contribution were derived from each effect in addition to their relations to energy demand. Second, two types of scenarios were stablished based on this analysis. The aging scenarios are business as usual and future characteristics scenarios, and were used in combination with Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5. Finally, energy consumption and GHG emissions were estimated by using a combination of scenarios. The results of these scenarios show an increase in energy consumption

  8. Improved Strategies and Optimization of Calibration Models for Real-time PCR Absolute Quantification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Real-time PCR absolute quantification applications rely on the use of standard curves to make estimates of DNA target concentrations in unknown samples. Traditional absolute quantification approaches dictate that a standard curve must accompany each experimental run. However, t...

  9. Third molar development: evaluation of nine tooth development registration techniques for age estimations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thevissen, Patrick W; Fieuws, Steffen; Willems, Guy

    2013-03-01

    Multiple third molar development registration techniques exist. Therefore the aim of this study was to detect which third molar development registration technique was most promising to use as a tool for subadult age estimation. On a collection of 1199 panoramic radiographs the development of all present third molars was registered following nine different registration techniques [Gleiser, Hunt (GH); Haavikko (HV); Demirjian (DM); Raungpaka (RA); Gustafson, Koch (GK); Harris, Nortje (HN); Kullman (KU); Moorrees (MO); Cameriere (CA)]. Regression models with age as response and the third molar registration as predictor were developed for each registration technique separately. The MO technique disclosed highest R(2) (F 51%, M 45%) and lowest root mean squared error (F 3.42 years; M 3.67 years) values, but differences with other techniques were small in magnitude. The amount of stages utilized in the explored staging techniques slightly influenced the age predictions. © 2013 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  10. Estimating power capability of aged lithium-ion batteries in presence of communication delays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fridholm, Björn; Wik, Torsten; Kuusisto, Hannes; Klintberg, Anton

    2018-04-01

    Efficient control of electrified powertrains requires accurate estimation of the power capability of the battery for the next few seconds into the future. When implemented in a vehicle, the power estimation is part of a control loop that may contain several networked controllers which introduces time delays that may jeopardize stability. In this article, we present and evaluate an adaptive power estimation method that robustly can handle uncertain health status and time delays. A theoretical analysis shows that stability of the closed loop system can be lost if the resistance of the model is under-estimated. Stability can, however, be restored by filtering the estimated power at the expense of slightly reduced bandwidth of the signal. The adaptive algorithm is experimentally validated in lab tests using an aged lithium-ion cell subject to a high power load profile in temperatures from -20 to +25 °C. The upper voltage limit was set to 4.15 V and the lower voltage limit to 2.6 V, where significant non-linearities are occurring and the validity of the model is limited. After an initial transient when the model parameters are adapted, the prediction accuracy is within ± 2 % of the actually available power.

  11. Estimating dose rates to organs as a function of age following internal exposure to radionuclides

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leggett, R.W.; Eckerman, K.F.; Dunning, D.E. Jr.; Cristy, M.; Crawford-Brown, D.J.; Williams, L.R.

    1984-03-01

    The AGEDOS methodology allows estimates of dose rates, as a function of age, to radiosensitive organs and tissues in the human body at arbitrary times during or after internal exposure to radioactive material. Presently there are few, if any, radionuclides for which sufficient metabolic information is available to allow full use of all features of the methodology. The intention has been to construct the methodology so that optimal information can be gained from a mixture of the limited amount of age-dependent, nuclide-specific data and the generally plentiful age-dependent physiological data now available. Moreover, an effort has been made to design the methodology so that constantly accumulating metabolic information can be incorporated with minimal alterations in the AGEDOS computer code. Some preliminary analyses performed by the authors, using the AGEDOS code in conjunction with age-dependent risk factors developed from the A-bomb survivor data and other studies, has indicated that the doses and subsequent risks of eventually experiencing radiogenic cancers may vary substantially with age for some exposure scenarios and may be relatively invariant with age for other scenarios. We believe that the AGEDOS methodology provides a convenient and efficient means for performing the internal dosimetry.

  12. Evaluation of third molar development in the estimation of chronological age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soares, Caio Belém Rodrigues Barros; Figueiroa, José Natal; Dantas, Renata Moura Xavier; Kurita, Lúcio Mitsuo; Pontual, Andréa dos Anjos; Ramos-Perez, Flávia Maria de Moraes; Perez, Danyel Elias da Cruz; Pontual, Maria Luiza dos Anjos

    2015-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the correlation between chronological age and the degree of third molar mineralization by Demirjian's developmental stages (Demirjian et al., 1973) using panoramic radiography. From a total of 11.396 digital panoramic radiographs of patients from three oral radiology private clinics from the northeast region of Brazil, obtained from January to June 2009, 2097 radiographic images from patients aged between 6 and 22 years were selected. The images were analyzed individually by two obsevers using a 21-inch computer screen and Windows Picture and Fax Viewer. Reliability was achieved by intra- and interobserver evaluation, using the Kappa test. Chronological age, calcification stage, gender and third molar were interrelated using a multiple linear regression model, considering age as a response variable. There was reliability with Demirjian et al.'s developmental stage assesment, displaying a significant relationship between mineralization stages and patients' age (Page and the calcification stage taking gender and localization of the third molar into consideration. It is possible to estimate chronological age based on Demirjian's stage of a third molar, regardless of gender and location. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Estimating dose rates to organs as a function of age following internal exposure to radionuclides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leggett, R.W.; Eckerman, K.F.; Dunning, D.E. Jr.; Cristy, M.; Crawford-Brown, D.J.; Williams, L.R.

    1984-03-01

    The AGEDOS methodology allows estimates of dose rates, as a function of age, to radiosensitive organs and tissues in the human body at arbitrary times during or after internal exposure to radioactive material. Presently there are few, if any, radionuclides for which sufficient metabolic information is available to allow full use of all features of the methodology. The intention has been to construct the methodology so that optimal information can be gained from a mixture of the limited amount of age-dependent, nuclide-specific data and the generally plentiful age-dependent physiological data now available. Moreover, an effort has been made to design the methodology so that constantly accumulating metabolic information can be incorporated with minimal alterations in the AGEDOS computer code. Some preliminary analyses performed by the authors, using the AGEDOS code in conjunction with age-dependent risk factors developed from the A-bomb survivor data and other studies, has indicated that the doses and subsequent risks of eventually experiencing radiogenic cancers may vary substantially with age for some exposure scenarios and may be relatively invariant with age for other scenarios. We believe that the AGEDOS methodology provides a convenient and efficient means for performing the internal dosimetry

  14. Exfoliative cytology: A possible tool in age estimation in forensic odontology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shetty, Devi Charan; Wadhwan, Vijay; Khanna, Kaveri Surya; Jain, Anshi; Gupta, Amit

    2015-01-01

    Age determination of unknown human bodies is important in the setting of a crime investigation or a mass disaster because the age at death, birth date, and year of death as well as gender can guide investigators to the correct identity among a large number of possible matches. The study was undertaken with an aim to estimate the age of an individual from their buccal smears by comparing the average cell size using image analysis morphometric software. Buccal smears were collected from 100 apparently healthy individuals. After fixation in 95% alcohol, the smears were stained using standard Papanicolaou laboratory procedure. The average cell size was measured using Dewinter's image analysis software version 4.3. Statistical analysis of the data was done using one-way ANOVA, Bonferroni procedures. The results showed significant decrease in average cell size of individual with increase in age. The difference was highly significant in age group of above 60 years. Age-related alterations are observed in buccal smears.

  15. Estimation of fracture toughness of cast stainless steels during thermal aging in LWR systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chopra, O.K. (Argonne National Lab., IL (USA))

    1991-06-01

    A procedure and correlations are presented for predicting the change in fracture toughness of cast stainless steel components due to thermal aging during service in light water rectors (LWRs) at 280--330{degrees}C (535--625{degrees}F). The fracture toughness J-R curve and Charpy-impact energy of aged cast stainless steels are estimated from known mineral in formation. Fracture toughness of a specific cast stainless steel is estimated from the extent and kinetics of thermal embrittlement. The extent of thermal embrittlement is characterized by the room-temperature normalized'' Charpy-impact energy. A correlation for the extent of embrittlement at saturation,'' i.e., the minimum impact energy that would be achieved for the material after long-term aging, is given in terms of a material parameter, {Phi}, which is determined from the chemical composition. The fracture toughness J-R curve for the material is then obtained from correlations between room-temperature Charpy-impact energy and fracture toughness parameters. Fracture toughness as a function of time and temperature of reactor service is estimated from the kinetics of thermal embrittlement, which is determined from chemical composition. A common lower-bound'' J-R curve for cast stainless steels with unknown chemical composition is also defined for a given material specification, ferrite content, and temperature. Examples for estimating impact strength and fracture toughness of cast stainless steel components during reactor service are describes. 24 refs., 39 figs., 2 tabs.

  16. Errors in 'BED'-derived estimates of HIV incidence will vary by place, time and age.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy B Hallett

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The BED Capture Enzyme Immunoassay, believed to distinguish recent HIV infections, is being used to estimate HIV incidence, although an important property of the test--how specificity changes with time since infection--has not been not measured.We construct hypothetical scenarios for the performance of BED test, consistent with current knowledge, and explore how this could influence errors in BED estimates of incidence using a mathematical model of six African countries. The model is also used to determine the conditions and the sample sizes required for the BED test to reliably detect trends in HIV incidence.If the chance of misclassification by BED increases with time since infection, the overall proportion of individuals misclassified could vary widely between countries, over time, and across age-groups, in a manner determined by the historic course of the epidemic and the age-pattern of incidence. Under some circumstances, changes in BED estimates over time can approximately track actual changes in incidence, but large sample sizes (50,000+ will be required for recorded changes to be statistically significant.The relationship between BED test specificity and time since infection has not been fully measured, but, if it decreases, errors in estimates of incidence could vary by place, time and age-group. This means that post-assay adjustment procedures using parameters from different populations or at different times may not be valid. Further research is urgently needed into the properties of the BED test, and the rate of misclassification in a wide range of populations.

  17. Non-working nurses in Japan: estimated size and its age-cohort characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakata, Yoshifumi; Miyazaki, Satoru

    2008-12-01

    This paper aims to forecast the total number of non-working nursing staff in Japan both overall and in terms of separate age groups for assistant nurses and fully qualified nurses. This also examines policy implications of those forecasts. Although the existence of around 550,000 of non-working nursing staff has been announced, the actual number of non-working nurses is not so clear that we might make errors in making policy to meet nurse workforce demand and supply in Japan. Estimations by integrating various data on the quantitative characteristics of non-working nursing staff were carried out. Considering the length and the type of education or training in referred four nursing positions; registered nurses, assistant nurses, public health nurses and midwives, we first estimated the number of students who completed a full course. And then multiplying by the ratio for gender and age classifications at the time of entry into courses, the number of those who obtained licenses was estimated. The number of non-working nurses was estimated at 100,000 higher than those in 2005 by government. Looking at age group, it is also possible to see a strong reflection of an employment pattern that follows the life cycle of female workers. Further analysis of life cycle effects and cohort effects proved the effect of life cycles even when subtracting the differences between the working behaviours of different generations. Our findings strongly suggest the need to provide an urgent policy that workplace conditions can be created in which a balance between work and family is achievable. Moreover, to empower clinical activity, we also believe there is an urgent need to reexamine the overall career vision for assistant nurses including in terms of compensation. Relevance to clinical practice. Our findings strongly suggests that consideration for work-life balance of nursing staff; particularly, female staff is all the more important to provide a stable quality care.

  18. Magnetic resonance imaging of third molars: developing a protocol suitable for forensic age estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Tobel, Jannick; Hillewig, Elke; Bogaert, Stephanie; Deblaere, Karel; Verstraete, Koenraad

    2017-03-01

    Established dental age estimation methods in sub-adults study the development of third molar root apices on radiographs. In living individuals, however, avoiding ionising radiation is expedient. Studying dental development with magnetic resonance imaging complies with this requirement, adding the advantage of imaging in three dimensions. To elaborate the development of an MRI protocol to visualise all third molars for forensic age estimation, with particular attention to the development of the root apex. Ex vivo scans of porcine jaws and in vivo scans of 10 volunteers aged 17-25 years were performed to select adequate sequences. Studied parameters were T1 vs T2 weighting, ultrashort echo time (UTE), fat suppression, in plane resolution, slice thickness, 3D imaging, signal-to-noise ratio, and acquisition time. A bilateral four-channel flexible surface coil was used. Two observers evaluated the suitability of the images. T2-weighted images were preferred to T1-weighted images. To clearly distinguish root apices in (almost) fully developed third molars an in plane resolution of 0.33 × 0.33 mm 2 was deemed necessary. Taking acquisition time limits into account, only a T2 FSE sequence with slice thickness of 2 mm generated images with sufficient resolution and contrast. UTE, thinner slice T2 FSE and T2 3D FSE sequences could not generate the desired resolution within 6.5 minutes. Three Tesla MRI of the third molars is a feasible technique for forensic age estimation, in which a T2 FSE sequence can provide the desired in plane resolution within a clinically acceptable acquisition time.

  19. A case of an adoptive girl with precocious puberty: the problem of age estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Donno, Antonio; Roca, Roberta; Introna, Francesco; Santoro, Valeria

    2013-09-10

    Age estimation is one of the main tasks of forensic anthropology and odontology, both on the dead and the living. In living subjects, age estimation may be used to establish an individual's status as a minor in cases involving adoption, criminal responsibility, child pornography, and those seeking asylum, especially where adequate identification documents are lacking. The authors report a case about age assessment of a girl born in Mbujimayi (Democratic Republic of Congo) and later adopted in Italy. The birth certificate issued after finding the child in a state of abandonment (in December 2007), bore date of 12.12.2004, but this was in contrast with the year of birth - 2003 - stated on the certification available to the center that had provided accommodation to the girl in Africa. Her adoptive parents reported that the child had been diagnosed with precocious puberty and was thus under treatment. She weighed 32.5 kg and was 132.5 cm tall. Body mass index (BMI) corresponded to the range between 9.5 and 14 years of age. The assessment of maturity indicators (sexual characteristics) placed the child at the lower limits of Stage II of Tanner's classification (sparse growth of long, slightly darkened, downy straight pubic hair; elevation of the breast and nipple as a small mound with increased diameter of the areolae). The skeletal age was determined by taking X-rays of the hand and wrist using Fels, TW2 and Greulich and Pyle methods. Dental growth was assessed through orthopantomogram using Demirjian's technique. The methods applied were adjusted considering the studies on African population found in the literature, and a skeletal and dental age of 10 years was established. Afterwards, the wrist X-rays performed at the Children's Hospital of Bari, 7 months before our investigation, revealed a skeletal age of 7 years. This evidence showed that, despite the treatment the child had promptly initiated, early puberty had influenced the skeletal growth with an acceleration

  20. Estimating loss of Brucella abortus antibodies from age-specific serological data in elk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benavides, J. A.; Caillaud, D.; Scurlock, B. M.; Maichak, E. J.; Edwards, W.H.; Cross, Paul C.

    2017-01-01

    Serological data are one of the primary sources of information for disease monitoring in wildlife. However, the duration of the seropositive status of exposed individuals is almost always unknown for many free-ranging host species. Directly estimating rates of antibody loss typically requires difficult longitudinal sampling of individuals following seroconversion. Instead, we propose a Bayesian statistical approach linking age and serological data to a mechanistic epidemiological model to infer brucellosis infection, the probability of antibody loss, and recovery rates of elk (Cervus canadensis) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. We found that seroprevalence declined above the age of ten, with no evidence of disease-induced mortality. The probability of antibody loss was estimated to be 0.70 per year after a five-year period of seropositivity and the basic reproduction number for brucellosis to 2.13. Our results suggest that individuals are unlikely to become re-infected because models with this mechanism were unable to reproduce a significant decline in seroprevalence in older individuals. This study highlights the possible implications of antibody loss, which could bias our estimation of critical epidemiological parameters for wildlife disease management based on serological data.

  1. Age-dependent reference intervals for estimated and measured glomerular filtration rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pottel, Hans; Delanaye, Pierre; Weekers, Laurent; Selistre, Luciano; Goffin, Karolien; Gheysens, Olivier; Dubourg, Laurence

    2017-08-01

    Defining mean and reference intervals for glomerular filtration rate (GFR) has been the subject of only a limited number of studies and review articles, with contradicting statements about the mean. Normal measured GFR (mGFR) values of ∼120-130 mL/min/1.73 m 2 have long been the referenced values for young adults but seem to be too high according to recent studies. Reference intervals are difficult to define because of the age decline of GFR, which is also observed in healthy subjects. Little data are available for subjects >70 years of age. Based on the reference intervals for serum creatinine (SCr) and the recently published full-age spectrum (FAS) equation, we define simple age-dependent equations for the reference limits of GFR. The mGFR of 633 living potential kidney donors was used to validate the new formulae that define the reference interval. The reference limits for estimated GFR (eGFR), calculated by entering the reference limits for SCr into the FAS equation closely correspond with published reference limits for mGFR. Of the mGFRs of potential living kidney donors, 97.2% lie between the newly defined reference limits for GFR. SCr reference limits may serve to define age-dependent reference limits for eGFR and mGFR.

  2. The Methuselah Effect: The Pernicious Impact of Unreported Deaths on Old-Age Mortality Estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Black, Dan A; Hsu, Yu-Chieh; Sanders, Seth G; Schofield, Lynne Steuerle; Taylor, Lowell J

    2017-12-01

    We examine inferences about old-age mortality that arise when researchers use survey data matched to death records. We show that even small rates of failure to match respondents can lead to substantial bias in the measurement of mortality rates at older ages. This type of measurement error is consequential for three strands in the demographic literature: (1) the deceleration in mortality rates at old ages; (2) the black-white mortality crossover; and (3) the relatively low rate of old-age mortality among Hispanics, often called the "Hispanic paradox." Using the National Longitudinal Survey of Older Men matched to death records in both the U.S. Vital Statistics system and the Social Security Death Index, we demonstrate that even small rates of missing mortality matching plausibly lead to an appearance of mortality deceleration when none exists and can generate a spurious black-white mortality crossover. We confirm these findings using data from the National Health Interview Survey matched to the U.S. Vital Statistics system, a data set known as the "gold standard" (Cowper et al. 2002) for estimating age-specific mortality. Moreover, with these data, we show that the Hispanic paradox is also plausibly explained by a similar undercount.

  3. An evaluation of age estimation using teeth from South Asian River dolphins (Platanistidae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christina H Lockyer

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The South Asian river dolphins (Platanista gangetica minor and P. g. gangetica are endangered, geographically isolated, freshwater cetaceans. Accurate age estimation of individuals is an important aspect of population biology as it is used for calculating parameters such as age at maturity and reproduction, longevity, and growth and survival rates. However this has never been comprehensively studied for this endangered cetacean family. A sample of 41 teeth from 29 skulls stored in museum collections was available. We compared two different aging methods to select the most appropriate. This involved decalcification and freeze-sectioning of teeth at variable thicknesses (10–25 micron, and staining with 1 Toluidine Blue, or 2 Ehrlichs Acid Haematoxylin. Stains were then compared for readability of Growth Layer Groups (GLG. The optimum section was found at 20 micron using Erhlichs Acid Haematoxylin. Both dentinal and cemental GLG were readable and comparable, but cemental GLG were generally easier to interpret because they were better defined. Ages varied from newborn / young of year (with none or only a neonatal line present to a maximum age of 30 GLG. There is currently no validation available for GLG deposition rate, but it is likely annual because of the extreme seasonal changes in the river habitat.

  4. Dental age estimation in a Brazilian adult population using Cameriere’s method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alana de Cássia Silva AZEVEDO

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The objectives of this study were to develop a specific formula to estimate age in a Brazilian adult population and to compare the original formula from Cameriere to this Brazilian formula. The sample comprised 1,772 periapical radiographs from 443 subjects (219 men, 224 women that were organized into 12 groups according to sex (men or women and age (20-29, 30-39, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, and 70 years and older. The films were analyzed using the criteria described by Cameriere et al. (2004 and Adobe Photoshop®. We obtained a mean error of 8.56 (SD = 5.80 years for tooth 13, 7.99 (SD = 5.78 years for tooth 23, 8.38 (SD = 6.26 years for tooth 33, and 8.20 (SD = 6.54 years for tooth 43. When teeth were combined in the analysis, we observed lower mean errors. The Brazilian formula developed from this sample group was more accurate than Cameriere’s formula. However, other factors must be considered to improve age estimates in adults.

  5. The chronological age estimation of third molar mineralization of Han population in southwestern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qing, Maofeng; Qiu, Lihua; Gao, Zhi; Bhandari, Kishor

    2014-05-01

    The purpose of the study was to estimate the chronology of third molar mineralization in Han population of southwestern China and find its unique characteristics so that it would provide a reference in several legal cases like forensic age estimation. The study used Demirjian's staging method to study 2192 orthopantomograms of 984 male and 1208 female subjects aged between 8 and 25 years. The statistical data was analyzed by Student's t test and ANOVA. The conclusions of the study are: (1) The chronological mineralization age of third molars of Han population in Southwestern China is similar to the Turkish and the Japanese, was earlier than the Austrian and Han of South China, but later than the Spanish. (2) The mineralization timing of the third molars between two sides in maxilla or mandible has no significant differences in the same gender group. (3) There is no significant difference in mineralization of third molars between male and female, except for tooth 48 in Demirjian's stage E. (4) The mineralization of third molar in maxilla is earlier than mandible. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

  6. Efficiency of wear and decalcification technique for estimating the age of estuarine dolphin Sotalia guianensis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sydney, Nicolle V; Monteiro-Filho, Emygdio L A

    2011-03-01

    Most techniques used for estimating the age of Sotalia guianensis (van Beneden, 1864) (Cetacea; Delphinidae) are very expensive, and require sophisticated equipment for preparing histological sections of teeth. The objective of this study was to test a more affordable and much simpler method, involving of the manual wear of teeth followed by decalcification and observation under a stereomicroscope. This technique has been employed successfully with larger species of Odontoceti. Twenty-six specimens were selected, and one tooth of each specimen was worn and demineralized for growth layers reading. Growth layers were evidenced in all specimens; however, in 4 of the 26 teeth, not all the layers could be clearly observed. In these teeth, there was a significant decrease of growth layer group thickness, thus hindering the layers count. The juxtaposition of layers hindered the reading of larger numbers of layers by the wear and decalcification technique. Analysis of more than 17 layers in a single tooth proved inconclusive. The method applied here proved to be efficient in estimating the age of Sotalia guianensis individuals younger than 18 years. This method could simplify the study of the age structure of the overall population, and allows the use of the more expensive methodologies to be confined to more specific studies of older specimens. It also enables the classification of the calf, young and adult classes, which is important for general population studies.

  7. Calliphora vicina (Diptera: Calliphoridae) pupae: a timeline of external morphological development and a new age and PMI estimation tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Katherine; Thorne, Alan; Harvey, Michelle

    2015-07-01

    The minimum postmortem interval (PMI(min)) is commonly estimated using calliphorid larvae, for which there are established age estimation methods based on morphological and development data. Despite the increased duration and sedentary nature of the pupal stage of the blowfly, morphological age estimation methods are poorly documented and infrequently used for PMI determination. The aim of this study was to develop a timeline of metamorphosis, focusing on the development of external morphology (within the puparium), to provide a means of age and PMI estimation for Calliphora vicina (Rob-Desvoidy) pupae. Under controlled conditions, 1,494 pupae were reared and sampled at regular time intervals. After puparium removal, observations of 23 external metamorphic developments were correlated to age in accumulated degree hours (ADH). Two age estimation methods were developed based on (1) the combination of possible age ranges observed for each characteristic and (2) regression analyses to generate age estimation equations employing all 23 characteristics observed and a subset of ten characteristics most significantly correlated with age. Blind sample analysis indicated that, using the combination of both methods, pupal age could be estimated to within ±500 ADH with 95% reliability.

  8. Age estimation by dental developmental stages in children and adolescents in Iceland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidisdottir, Sigridur Rosa; Richter, Svend

    2015-12-01

    Studies have shown that it is necessary to create a database for dental maturity for every population and compare it to others. The present study is the first one for dental development in the Icelandic population the age range being 4-24 years. It will help in forensic dental age estimation and will also help dentists, physicians, anthropologists, archaeologists and other professionals who rely on developmental age assessment in children and adolescents. In this present retrospective cross-sectional study, dental maturity was determined in 1100 Icelandic children and adolescents from orthopantomograms (OPGs). The first 100 were used for a pilot study and the remaining 1000 for the main study. A total of 23 subjects were excluded. The sample consisted of 508 girls and 469 boys from the age of 4-24 years and a dental developmental scoring system was used as a standard for determination of dental maturity stages. A total of 200 OPGs were studied both on the left and right side and the remaining on the right side. Dental maturity was established for all teeth and both genders, when the sample permitted, from the beginning of crown formation to the root apex closure. The Cronbach's Alpha reliability test showed high reliability, R=0.982. Girls in Iceland reach dental maturity root completed (stage 10, Rc) at 17.81 years of age for the maxillary and at 18.47 years for the mandibular teeth. Boys reach dental maturity root completed (stage 10, Rc) at 18.00 years of age in the maxilla and 17.63 in the mandible. There was no significant difference between left and right side (r=0.95-1.00) and there was no gender difference, except in root formation in maxillary and mandibular canines where girls reached root completed earlier than boys. A reliable database has been established in Iceland for tooth development in the age range of 4-24 years, which is compatible with international studies. These results will help forensic odontologists and other professionals to estimate with

  9. Estimating Modifying Effect of Age on Genetic and Environmental Variance Components in Twin Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Liang; Sillanpää, Mikko J; Silventoinen, Karri; Kaprio, Jaakko; Pitkäniemi, Janne

    2016-04-01

    Twin studies have been adopted for decades to disentangle the relative genetic and environmental contributions for a wide range of traits. However, heritability estimation based on the classical twin models does not take into account dynamic behavior of the variance components over age. Varying variance of the genetic component over age can imply the existence of gene-environment (G×E) interactions that general genome-wide association studies (GWAS) fail to capture, which may lead to the inconsistency of heritability estimates between twin design and GWAS. Existing parametricG×Einteraction models for twin studies are limited by assuming a linear or quadratic form of the variance curves with respect to a moderator that can, however, be overly restricted in reality. Here we propose spline-based approaches to explore the variance curves of the genetic and environmental components. We choose the additive genetic, common, and unique environmental variance components (ACE) model as the starting point. We treat the component variances as variance functions with respect to age modeled by B-splines or P-splines. We develop an empirical Bayes method to estimate the variance curves together with their confidence bands and provide an R package for public use. Our simulations demonstrate that the proposed methods accurately capture dynamic behavior of the component variances in terms of mean square errors with a data set of >10,000 twin pairs. Using the proposed methods as an alternative and major extension to the classical twin models, our analyses with a large-scale Finnish twin data set (19,510 MZ twins and 27,312 DZ same-sex twins) discover that the variances of the A, C, and E components for body mass index (BMI) change substantially across life span in different patterns and the heritability of BMI drops to ∼50% after middle age. The results further indicate that the decline of heritability is due to increasing unique environmental variance, which provides more

  10. Nonparametric estimation of age-specific reference percentile curves with radial smoothing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Xiaohai; Qu, Yongming; Huang, Yao; Zhang, Xiao; Song, Hanping; Jiang, Honghua

    2012-01-01

    Reference percentile curves represent the covariate-dependent distribution of a quantitative measurement and are often used to summarize and monitor dynamic processes such as human growth. We propose a new nonparametric method based on a radial smoothing (RS) technique to estimate age-specific reference percentile curves assuming the underlying distribution is relatively close to normal. We compared the RS method with both the LMS and the generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) methods using simulated data and found that our method has smaller estimation error than the two existing methods. We also applied the new method to analyze height growth data from children being followed in a clinical observational study of growth hormone treatment, and compared the growth curves between those with growth disorders and the general population. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Graphical and demographic synopsis of the captive cohort method for estimating population age structure in the wild.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carey, James R; Müller, Hans-Georg; Wang, Jane-Ling; Papadopoulos, Nikos T; Diamantidis, Alexandros; Koulousis, Nikos A

    2012-10-01

    The purpose of this paper is to complement the literature concerned with the captive cohort method for estimating age structure including (1) graphic techniques to visualize and thus better understand the underlying life table identity in which the age structure of a stationary population equals the time-to-death distribution of the individuals within it; (2) re-derive the basic model for estimating age structure in non-stationary population in demographic rather than statistical notation; and (3) describe a simplified method for estimating changes in the mean age of a wild population. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Normative estimates of cross-sectional and longitudinal brain volume decline in aging and AD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fotenos, A F; Snyder, A Z; Girton, L E; Morris, J C; Buckner, R L

    2005-03-22

    To test the hypotheses 1) that whole-brain volume decline begins in early adulthood, 2) that cross-sectional and longitudinal atrophy estimates agree in older, nondemented individuals, and 3) that longitudinal atrophy accelerates in the earliest stages of Alzheimer disease (AD). High-resolution, high-contrast structural MRIs were obtained from 370 adults (age 18 to 97). Participants over 65 (n = 192) were characterized using the Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR) as either nondemented (CDR 0, n = 94) or with very mild to mild dementia of the Alzheimer type (DAT, CDR 0.5 and 1, n = 98). Of these older participants, 79 belonged to a longitudinal cohort and were imaged again a mean 1.8 years after baseline. Estimates of gray matter (nGM), white matter (nWM), and whole-brain volume (nWBV) normalized for head sizes were generated based on atlas registration and image segmentation. Hierarchical regression of nWBV estimates from nondemented individuals across the adult lifespan revealed a strong linear, moderate quadratic pattern of decline beginning in early adulthood, with later onset of nWM than nGM loss. Whole-brain volume differences were detected by age 30. The cross-sectional atrophy model overlapped with the rates measured longitudinally in older, nondemented individuals (mean decline of -0.45% per year). In those individuals with very mild DAT, atrophy rate more than doubled (-0.98% per year). Nondemented individuals exhibit a slow rate of whole-brain atrophy from early in adulthood with white-matter loss beginning in middle age; in older adults, the onset of dementia of the Alzheimer type is associated with a markedly accelerated atrophy rate.

  13. 40Ar-39Ar method for age estimation: principles, technique and application in orogenic regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dalmejer, R.

    1984-01-01

    A variety of the K-Ar method for age estimation by 40 Ar/ 39 Ar recently developed is described. This method doesn't require direct analysis of potassium, its content is calculated as a function of 39 Ar, which is formed from 39 K under neutron activation. Errors resulted from interactions between potassium and calcium nuclei with neutrons are considered. The attention is paid to the technique of gradual heating, used in 40 Ar- 39 Ar method, and of obtaining age spectrum. Aplicabilities of isochronous diagram is discussed for the case of presence of excessive argon in a sample. Examples of 40 Ar- 39 Ar method application for dating events in orogenic regions are presented

  14. Estimation of Gestational Age, Using Neonatal Anthropometry: A Cross-sectional Study in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thawani, Rajat; Faridi, M.M.A.; Arora, Shilpa Khanna; Kumar, Rajeev

    2013-01-01

    Prematurity is a significant contributor to neonatal mortality in India. Conventionally, assessment of gestational age of newborns is based on New Ballard Technique, for which a paediatric specialist is needed. Anthropometry of the newborn, especially birthweight, has been used in the past to predict the gestational age of the neonate in peripheral health facilities where a trained paediatrician is often not available. We aimed to determine if neonatal anthropometric parameters, viz. birthweight, crown heel-length, head-circumference, mid-upper arm-circumference, lower segment-length, foot-length, umbilical nipple distance, calf-circumference, intermammary distance, and hand-length, can reliably predict the gestational age. The study also aimed to derive an equation for the same. We also assessed if these neonatal anthropometric parameters had a better prediction of gestational age when used in combination compared to individual parameters. We evaluated 1,000 newborns in a cross-sectional study conducted in Guru Teg Bahadur Hospital in Delhi. Detailed anthropometric estimation of the neonates was done within 48 hours after birth, using standard techniques. Gestational age was estimated using New Ballard Scoring. Out of 1,250 consecutive neonates, 1,000 were included in the study. Of them, 800 randomly-selected newborns were used in devising the model, and the remaining 200 newborns were used in validating the final model. Quadratic regression analysis using stepwise selection was used in building the predictive model. Birthweight (R=0.72), head-circumference (R=0.60), and mid-upper arm-circumference (R=0.67) were found highly correlated with gestation. The final equation to assess gestational age was as follows: Gestational age (weeks)=5.437×W–0.781×W2+2.815×HC–0.041×HC2+0.285×MUAC–22.745 where W=Weight, HC=Head-circumference and MUAC=Mid-upper arm-circumference; Adjusted R=0.76. On validation, the predictability of this equation is 46% (±1 week), 75

  15. Age- and sex-dependent model for estimating radioiodine dose to a normal thyroid

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Killough, G.G.; Eckerman, K.F.

    1985-01-01

    This paper describes the derivation of an age- and sex-dependent model of radioiodine dosimetry in the thyroid and the application of the model to estimating the thyroid dose for each of 4215 patients who were exposed to 131 I in diagnostic and therapeutic procedures. The model was made to conform to these data requirements by the use of age-specific estimates of the biological half-time of iodine in the thyroid and an age- and sex-dependent representation of the mass of the thyroid. Also, it was assumed that the thyroid burden was maximum 24 hours after administration (the 131 I dose is not critically sensitive to this assumption). The metabolic model is of the form A(t) = K[exp(-μ 1 t) - exp(-μ 2 t)] (μCi), where μ 1 = lambda/sub r/ + lambda/sub i//sup b/ (i = 1, 2), lambda/sub r/ is the radiological decay-rate coefficient, and lambda/sub i//sup b/ are biological removal rate coefficients. The values of lambda/sub i//sup b/ are determined by solving a nonlinear equation that depends on assumptions about the time of maximum uptake and the eventual biological loss rate (through which age dependence enters). The value of K may then be calculated from knowledge of the uptake at a particular time. The dosimetric S-factor (rad/μCi-day) is based on specific absorbed fractions for photons of energy ranging from 0.01 to 4.0 MeV for thyroid masses from 1.29 to 19.6 g; the functional form of the S-factor also involves the thyroid mass explicitly, through which the dependence on age and sex enters. An analysis of sensitivity of the model to uncertainties in the thyroid mass and the biological removal rate for several age groups is reported. The model could prove useful in the dosimetry of very short-lived radioiodines. Tables of age- and sex-dependent coefficients are provided to enable readers to make their own calculations. 12 refs., 5 figs., 4 tabs

  16. An automated technique to stage lower third molar development on panoramic radiographs for age estimation: a pilot study

    OpenAIRE

    De Tobel, Jannick; Radesh, Purnima; Vandermeulen, Dirk; Thevissen, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    Background • Automated methods to evaluate growth of hand and wrist bones on radiographs and magnetic resonance imaging have been developed. They can be applied to estimate age in children and subadults. Automated methods require the software to (1) recognise the region of interest in the image(s), (2) evaluate the degree of development and (3) correlate this to the age of the subject based on a reference population. For age estimation based on third molars an automated m...

  17. The role of forensic medicine and forensic dentistry in estimating the chronological age of living individuals in Hamburg, Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mansour, Hussam; Fuhrmann, Andreas; Paradowski, Ioana; van Well, Eilin Jopp; Püschel, Klaus

    2017-03-01

    Age estimation represents one of the primary responsibilities of forensic medicine and forensic dentistry. It is an integral procedure aiming to estimate the chronological age of an individual, whose age is either unknown or doubtful, by means of assessing the stage of dental, skeletal, and physical development. The present publication reviews the methods and procedures used in estimating the age of young living individuals as well as the experiences of the Institute of Legal Medicine in Hamburg-Eppendorf, Germany, during the last 25 years. From 1990 to 2015, 4223 age estimations were carried out in Hamburg. During this time, forensic age estimation was requested by different concerned authorities including courts, the foreigners' registration office (Zentrale Ausländerbehörde), and the state office of education and consultation (Landesbetrieb Erziehung und Beratung). In the context of judicial proceedings, orthopantomograms, as well as X-ray examinations of both the left hand and the medial clavicular epiphyses were carried out in accordance with AGFAD recommendations. For investigations not associated with judicial proceedings, orthopantomogram examinations play a key role in the process of age estimation, due to their high diagnostic value and low radiation exposure. Since 2009, mainly unaccompanied young refugees were examined for age estimation. Orthopantomograms and clinical-physical examinations have been used as essential steps in this context to determine whether an individual is 18 years or less. Additional X-ray examinations of the left hand and the medial clavicular epiphyses have been used less frequently.

  18. Bone age estimation and prediction of final height in patients with {beta}-thalassaemia major: a comparison between the two most common methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christoforidis, Athanasios; Katzos, George; Athanassiou-Metaxa, Miranda [Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 1st Paediatric Department, Thessaloniki (Greece); Badouraki, Maria [Ippokratio Hospital, Paediatric Radiology Department, Thessaloniki (Greece)

    2007-12-15

    Thalassaemic patients are in need of frequent assessment of bone age because of growth failure and pubertal disorders. To compare the ''rapid'' Greulich and Pyle (G and P) method with the third edition of the Tanner and Whitehouse (TW3) method for determining skeletal maturity and predicting final height in thalassaemic patients. A total of 191 radiographs from 58 patients (28 male, 30 female) were retrospectively evaluated by two investigators, one for each method. In 47 radiographs from 15 patients having attained their adult height, predicted final height was calculated according to each method. The mean bone ages determined by both the G and P and TW3 methods were lower than mean chronological age, although the differences were not statistically significant (10.04 {+-} 3.69 years and 9.98 {+-} 3.39 years vs. 10.78 {+-} 3.96 years, respectively). Both methods had a tendency to over-estimate final height. Overall, the TW3 method seemed to be more accurate than the G and P method (mean absolute error 3.21 {+-} 2.51 years vs. 3.99 {+-} 2.99 years, respectively, P=0.048). The same method should be used when serial assessments are performed, as both methods provide similarly reliable, although not equivalent, results. The TW3 height prediction method seemed to be more accurate in patients with {beta}-thalassaemia major than the G and P method, albeit with a large confidence interval. (orig.)

  19. Estimation of legal age using calcification stages of third molars in living individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Streckbein, Philipp; Reichert, Isabelle; Verhoff, Marcel A; Bödeker, Rolf-Hasso; Kähling, Christopher; Wilbrand, Jan-Falco; Schaaf, Heidrun; Howaldt, Hans-Peter; May, Andreas

    2014-12-01

    The increased number of adolescents and young adults with unknown or inaccurately given date of birth is a current issue in justice and legal medicine. The objective of this study was to determine the extent to which third molar calcification stages assessed on panoramic X-rays could be useful as additional criteria for forensic age estimation in living individuals, focusing on the legally important ages 17 and 18. In a retrospective multi-center study, the developmental stage of each individual's third molar was analyzed using Demirjian's scale in 2360 cases. Additionally, sex, age and ancestry were assessed. Individuals with the lowest calcification stage of all present molars in stage H were ≥18 years with a likelihood of ≥99.05% in the female (n=388), and ≥99.24% in the male (n=482) population. The lowest calcification stage of all present third molars proved to be useful as an additional reliable criterion for the determination of an age ≥18 years. Copyright © 2014 Forensic Science Society. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. How old are you? Genet age estimates in a clonal animal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devlin-Durante, M K; Miller, M W; Precht, W F; Baums, I B

    2016-11-01

    Foundation species such as redwoods, seagrasses and corals are often long-lived and clonal. Genets may consist of hundreds of members (ramets) and originated hundreds to thousands of years ago. As climate change and other stressors exert selection pressure on species, the demography of populations changes. Yet, because size does not indicate age in clonal organisms, demographic models are missing data necessary to predict the resilience of many foundation species. Here, we correlate somatic mutations with genet age of corals and provide the first, preliminary estimates of genet age in a colonial animal. We observed somatic mutations at five microsatellite loci in rangewide samples of the endangered coral, Acropora palmata (n = 3352). Colonies harboured 342 unique mutations in 147 genets. Genet age ranged from 30 to 838 years assuming a mutation rate of 1.195 -04 per locus per year based on colony growth rates and 236 to 6500 years assuming a mutation rate of 1.542 -05 per locus per year based on sea level changes to habitat availability. Long-lived A. palmata genets imply a large capacity to tolerate past environmental change, and yet recent mass mortality events in A. palmata suggest that capacity is now being frequently exceeded. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Estimation of relative groundwater age in the granite at the Tono research site, central Japan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iwatsuki, T. E-mail: iwatsuki@tono.jnc.go.jp; Xu, S.; Itoh, S.; Abe, M.; Watanabe, M

    2000-10-01

    Isotopic studies have been conducted to develop a method to estimate subsurface hydraulic conditions in the granite at the Tono research site, central Japan. The groundwaters were classified into three groups according to residence time, based on the {sup 3}H concentration: (1) modern water recharged from the surface within the last 40 years, (2) a mixture between modern water and relatively old groundwaters, and (3) relatively old groundwater which is devoid of {sup 3}H. An attempt was made to date the {sup 3}H-free groundwater using {sup 14}C. The relative groundwater age estimated by simple model, which assumes no addition of dead carbon ranges from 6500 to 14,000 years B.P. The calcite precipitations on the fracture surface are also classified into three groups, based on carbon isotope compositions: (1) precipitation from groundwater within the last 50,000 years, (2) precipitation from the solution with different {delta}{sup 13}C values from groundwater in the past more than 50,000 years, and (3) mixture of new calcite partly precipitated within the last 50,000 years and relatively old calcite. These data suggest the possibility that the conductive (open) fractures connected to the surface can be estimated by {sup 14}C determination in the calcite on fracture surfaces.

  2. Estimation of relative groundwater age in the granite at the Tono research site, central Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iwatsuki, T.; Xu, S.; Itoh, S.; Abe, M.; Watanabe, M.

    2000-10-01

    Isotopic studies have been conducted to develop a method to estimate subsurface hydraulic conditions in the granite at the Tono research site, central Japan. The groundwaters were classified into three groups according to residence time, based on the 3H concentration: (1) modern water recharged from the surface within the last 40 years, (2) a mixture between modern water and relatively old groundwaters, and (3) relatively old groundwater which is devoid of 3H. An attempt was made to date the 3H-free groundwater using 14C. The relative groundwater age estimated by simple model, which assumes no addition of dead carbon ranges from 6500 to 14,000 years B.P. The calcite precipitations on the fracture surface are also classified into three groups, based on carbon isotope compositions: (1) precipitation from groundwater within the last 50,000 years, (2) precipitation from the solution with different δ 13C values from groundwater in the past more than 50,000 years, and (3) mixture of new calcite partly precipitated within the last 50,000 years and relatively old calcite. These data suggest the possibility that the conductive (open) fractures connected to the surface can be estimated by 14C determination in the calcite on fracture surfaces.

  3. Strategies for estimating the water budget at different scales using the JGrass-NewAGE system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bancheri, M.; Rigon, R.; Serafin, F.; Abera, W.; Bottazzi, M.

    2017-12-01

    Recently we presented two papers one dedicated to the estimation of the water budget components in a small, basin, the Posina catchment [Abera et al., 2017], and the other in a large basin, the Blue Nile [Abera et al., 2017b]. At the smallest scale the ground measurements available do not guarantee the closure of the budget without making additional hypothesis. The large scale case, instead, was largely supported by remote sensing data either for calibration and/or validation. This contribution explains how we actually did it, clarifies some aspects of the informatics and openly discusses the issues risen in our work. We also consider varying configuration of the water budget schemes at the subbasin level, and how this affects the estimates.Finally we analyse the problem of travel times [Rigon et al., 2016a, Rigon et al, 2016b] as it comes out from considering the multiple fluxes and storages. All considerations and simulations are based on the JGrass-NewAGE system [Formetta et al., 2014] and its evolution (Bancheri [2017]).ReferencesAbera, W., Formetta, G., Borga, M., & Rigon, R. (2017a). Estimating the water budget components and their variability in a pre-alpine basin with JGrass-NewAGE. Advances in Water Resources, http://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2017.03.010Abera, W., Formetta, G., Brocca, L., & Rigon, R. (2017b). Modeling the water budget of the Upper Blue Nile basin using the JGrass-NewAge model system and satellite data. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. http://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-3145-2017Bancheri, M., A travel time model for water budget of complex catchments, ph.D Thesis, 2017Formetta, G., Antonello, A., Franceschi, S., David, O., & Rigon, R. (2014). Hydrological modelling with components: A GIS-based open-source framework. Environmental Modelling and Software,. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.01.019Rigon, R., Bancheri, M., Formetta, G., & de Lavenne, A. (2016). The geomorphological unit hydrograph from a historical-critical perspective

  4. Estimation of methane emission rate changes using age-defined waste in a landfill site.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishii, Kazuei; Furuichi, Toru

    2013-09-01

    Long term methane emissions from landfill sites are often predicted by first-order decay (FOD) models, in which the default coefficients of the methane generation potential and the methane generation rate given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are usually used. However, previous studies have demonstrated the large uncertainty in these coefficients because they are derived from a calibration procedure under ideal steady-state conditions, not actual landfill site conditions. In this study, the coefficients in the FOD model were estimated by a new approach to predict more precise long term methane generation by considering region-specific conditions. In the new approach, age-defined waste samples, which had been under the actual landfill site conditions, were collected in Hokkaido, Japan (in cold region), and the time series data on the age-defined waste sample's methane generation potential was used to estimate the coefficients in the FOD model. The degradation coefficients were 0.0501/y and 0.0621/y for paper and food waste, and the methane generation potentials were 214.4 mL/g-wet waste and 126.7 mL/g-wet waste for paper and food waste, respectively. These coefficients were compared with the default coefficients given by the IPCC. Although the degradation coefficient for food waste was smaller than the default value, the other coefficients were within the range of the default coefficients. With these new coefficients to calculate methane generation, the long term methane emissions from the landfill site was estimated at 1.35×10(4)m(3)-CH(4), which corresponds to approximately 2.53% of the total carbon dioxide emissions in the city (5.34×10(5)t-CO(2)/y). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Age estimation using development of third molars in South Indian population: A radiological study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Priyadharshini, K Indra; Idiculla, Jose Joy; Sivapathasundaram, B; Mohanbabu, V; Augustine, Dominic; Patil, Shankargouda

    2015-05-01

    To assess the estimation of chronological age based on the stages of third molar development following the eight stages (A-H) method of Demirjian et al. in Chennai population of South India. A sample consisting of 848 individuals (471 males and 377 females) aged between 14 and 30 years was randomly selected for the clinical evaluation and 323 orthopantomograms with clinically missing third molars were taken for radiological evaluation using Demirjian's method from a Chennai population of known chronological age and sex. Statistical analysis was performed using Pearson's Chi-square test and mean values were compared between the study groups using t-test or analysis of variance (ANOVA) followed by Tukey's highly significant difference (HSD). In the present study, P < 0.05 was considered as the level of significance. The results showed that the mean age of having clinically completely erupted maxillary third molars was 22.41 years in male subjects and 23.81 years in female subjects and that of mandibular third molars was 21.49 years in male subjects and 23.34 years in female subjects. Mandibular third molars were clinically missing more often in females than in males. Eruption of mandibular third molars was generally ahead of the emergence of maxillary third molars into the oral cavity. Third molar development between male and female subjects showed statistically significant differences at calcification stage F and stage G in maxillary third molars and stage F in mandibular third molars (P < 0.05). There are differences indicating that maxillary and mandibular third molar eruption reached Demirjian's formation stages earlier in males than in females. It is suggested that in future studies, to increase the accuracy of age determination, indications of sexual maturity and ossification should also be evaluated in addition to third molar mineralization.

  6. Age- and sex-dependent model for estimating radioiodine dose to a normal thyroid

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Killough, G.G.; Eckerman, K.F.

    1986-01-01

    This paper describes the derivation of an age- and sex-dependent model of radioiodine dosimetry in the thyroid and the application of the model to estimating the thyroid dose for each of 4215 patients who were exposed to 131 I in diagnostic and therapeutic procedures. In most cases, the available data consisted of the patient's age at the time of administration, the patient's sex, the quantity of activity administered, the clinically-determined uptake of radioiodine by the thyroid, and the time after administration at which the uptake was determined. The metabolic model is of the form A(t) = K[exp(-μ 1 t) -exp(-μ 2 t)] (μCi), where μ 1 = λ/sub r/ - λ/sub i//sup b/ (i = 1, 2), λ/sub r/ is the radiological decay-rate coefficient, and λ/sub i//sup b/ are biological removal rate coefficients. The values of λ/sub i//sup b/ are determined by solving a nonlinear equation that depends on assumptions about the time or maximum uptake an the eventual biological loss rate (through which age dependence enters). The value of K may then be calculated from knowledge of the uptakes at a particular time. The dosimetric S-factor (rad/μCi-day) is based on specific absorbed fractions for photons of energy ranging from 0.01 to 4.0 MeV for thyroid masses from 1.29 to 19.6 g; the functional form of the S-factor also involves the thyroid mass explicitly, through which the dependence on age and sex enters. An analysis of sensitivity of the model to uncertainties in the thyroid mass and the biological removal rate for several age groups is reported. 12 references, 5 figures, 5 tables

  7. An estimation of inguinal hernia epidemiology adjusted for population age structure in Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beard, J H; Oresanya, L B; Akoko, L; Mwanga, A; Dicker, R A; Harris, H W

    2014-04-01

    Surgical conditions represent a significant source of global disease burden. Little is known about the epidemiology of inguinal hernia in resource-poor settings. We present a method to estimate inguinal hernia disease burden in Tanzania. Using data from the United States National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) prospective cohort study and Tanzanian demographic figures, we calculated inguinal hernia incidence and prevalence in Tanzanian adults under three surgical rate scenarios. Gender-specific incidence figures from NHANES data were adjusted according to Tanzanian population age structure. Hernia duration was adjusted for Tanzanian life expectancy within each age group. The prevalence of inguinal hernia in Tanzanian adults is 5.36% while an estimated 12.09% of men had hernias. Today, 683,904 adults suffer from symptomatic inguinal hernia in Tanzania. The annual incidence of symptomatic hernias in Tanzanian adults is 163 per 100,000 population. At Tanzania's current hernia repair rate, a backlog of 995,874 hernias in need of repair will develop over 10 years. 4.4 million disability-adjusted life-years would be averted with repair of prevalent symptomatic hernias in Tanzania. Our data indicate the extent of inguinal hernia disease burden in Tanzania. By adjusting our figures for the age structure of Tanzania, we have demonstrated that while the incidence of symptomatic cases may be lower than previously thought, prevalence of inguinal hernia in Tanzania remains high. This approach provides an update to our previously described methodology for calculation of inguinal hernia epidemiology in resource-poor settings that may be used in multiple country contexts.

  8. Estimation of glandular content rate and statistical analysis of the influence of age group and compressed breast thickness on the estimated value

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohmori, Naoki; Ashida, Kenji; Fujita, Osamu

    2003-01-01

    Because the glandular content rate is an important factor in evaluating breast cancer detection and average glandular dose, it is important in mammography research to estimate and analyze this rate. The purpose of this study was to obtain a formula for statistical estimation of the glandular content rate, to clarify statistically the influence of age group and compressed breast thickness (CBT) on estimating the glandular content rate, and to show statistically the general relation between glandular content rate and the factors of age and CBT. The subjects were 740 Japanese women aged 20-91 years (mean±SD: 48.3±12.8 years) who had undergone mammography. In our study, the glandular content rate was statistically estimated from age group, mAs-value, and CBT when subjects underwent mammography, from a phantom simulation, and from MR images of the breast. In addition, multivariate analysis was carried to examine statistically the influence of age group and CBT on glandular content rate. The mean glandular content rate as estimated by age group was as follows: 35.6% for those in their 20s, 33.4% in the 30s, 27.5% in the 40s, 23.8% in the 50s, and 21.8% in those 60 and over. The rate for the subjects as a whole was 27.1%. This study indicated that overestimation occurred if the estimated value of the glandular content rate was not corrected in the 3D-measurement by MRI. In addition, this study showed that the statistical influence on glandular content rate was significantly larger for CBT than age. (author)

  9. The age estimation practice related to illegal unaccompanied minors immigration in Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradella, F; Pinchi, V; Focardi, M; Grifoni, R; Palandri, M; Norelli, G A

    2017-12-01

    The migrants arrived to the Italian coasts in 2016 were 181.436, 18% more than the previous year and 6% more than the highest number ever since. An "unaccompanied minor" (UAM) is a third-country national or a stateless person under eighteen years of age, who arrives on the territory of the Member State unaccompanied by an adult responsible for him/her whether by law or by the practice of the Member State concerned, and for as long as he or she is not effectively taken into the care of such a person; it includes a minor who is left unaccompanied after he/she entered the territory of the Member States. As many as 95.985 UAMs applied for international protection in an EU member country just in 2015, almost four times the number registered in the previous year. The UAMs arrived in Italy were 28.283 in 2016; 94% of them were males, 92% unaccompanied, 8% of them under 15; the 53,6% is 17; the individuals between 16 and 17 are instead the 82%. Many of them (50%), 6561 in 2016, escaped from the sanctuaries, thus avoiding to be formally identified and registered in Italy in the attempt to reach more easily northern Europe countries, since The Dublin Regulations (2003) state that the asylum application should be held in the EU country of entrance or where parents reside. The age assessment procedures can therefore be considered as a relevant task that weighs in on the shoulders of the forensic experts with all the related issues and the coming of age is the important threshold. In the EU laws on asylum, the minors are considered as one of the groups of vulnerable persons towards whom Member States have specific obligations. A proper EU common formal regulation in the matter of age estimation procedures still lacks. According to the Italian legal framework in the matter, a medical examination should have been always performed but a new law completely changed the approach to the procedures of age estimation of the migrant (excluding the criminal cases) with a better adherence

  10. Estimating Risks of Heat Strain by Age and Sex: A Population-Level Simulation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathryn Glass

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Individuals living in hot climates face health risks from hyperthermia due to excessive heat. Heat strain is influenced by weather exposure and by individual characteristics such as age, sex, body size, and occupation. To explore the population-level drivers of heat strain, we developed a simulation model that scales up individual risks of heat storage (estimated using Myrup and Morgan’s man model “MANMO” to a large population. Using Australian weather data, we identify high-risk weather conditions together with individual characteristics that increase the risk of heat stress under these conditions. The model identifies elevated risks in children and the elderly, with females aged 75 and older those most likely to experience heat strain. Risk of heat strain in males does not increase as rapidly with age, but is greatest on hot days with high solar radiation. Although cloudy days are less dangerous for the wider population, older women still have an elevated risk of heat strain on hot cloudy days or when indoors during high temperatures. Simulation models provide a valuable method for exploring population level risks of heat strain, and a tool for evaluating public health and other government policy interventions.

  11. Estimating Age Ratios and Size of Pacific Walrus Herds on Coastal Haulouts using Video Imaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monson, Daniel H.; Udevitz, Mark S.; Jay, Chadwick V.

    2013-01-01

    During Arctic summers, sea ice provides resting habitat for Pacific walruses as it drifts over foraging areas in the eastern Chukchi Sea. Climate-driven reductions in sea ice have recently created ice-free conditions in the Chukchi Sea by late summer causing walruses to rest at coastal haulouts along the Chukotka and Alaska coasts, which provides an opportunity to study walruses at relatively accessible locations. Walrus age can be determined from the ratio of tusk length to snout dimensions. We evaluated use of images obtained from a gyro-stabilized video system mounted on a helicopter flying at high altitudes (to avoid disturbance) to classify the sex and age of walruses hauled out on Alaska beaches in 2010–2011. We were able to classify 95% of randomly selected individuals to either an 8- or 3-category age class, and we found measurement-based age classifications were more repeatable than visual classifications when using images presenting the correct head profile. Herd density at coastal haulouts averaged 0.88 walruses/m2 (std. err. = 0.02), herd size ranged from 8,300 to 19,400 (CV 0.03–0.06) and we documented ∼30,000 animals along ∼1 km of beach in 2011. Within the herds, dependent walruses (0–2 yr-olds) tended to be located closer to water, and this tendency became more pronounced as the herd spent more time on the beach. Therefore, unbiased estimation of herd age-ratios will require a sampling design that allows for spatial and temporal structuring. In addition, randomly sampling walruses available at the edge of the herd for other purposes (e.g., tagging, biopsying) will not sample walruses with an age structure representative of the herd. Sea ice losses are projected to continue, and population age structure data collected with aerial videography at coastal haulouts may provide demographic information vital to ongoing efforts to understand effects of climate change on this species. PMID:23936106

  12. Estimating age ratios and size of Pacific walrus herds on coastal haulouts using video imaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monson, Daniel H.; Udevitz, Mark S.; Jay, Chadwick V.

    2013-01-01

    During Arctic summers, sea ice provides resting habitat for Pacific walruses as it drifts over foraging areas in the eastern Chukchi Sea. Climate-driven reductions in sea ice have recently created ice-free conditions in the Chukchi Sea by late summer causing walruses to rest at coastal haulouts along the Chukotka and Alaska coasts, which provides an opportunity to study walruses at relatively accessible locations. Walrus age can be determined from the ratio of tusk length to snout dimensions. We evaluated use of images obtained from a gyro-stabilized video system mounted on a helicopter flying at high altitudes (to avoid disturbance) to classify the sex and age of walruses hauled out on Alaska beaches in 2010–2011. We were able to classify 95% of randomly selected individuals to either an 8- or 3-category age class, and we found measurement-based age classifications were more repeatable than visual classifications when using images presenting the correct head profile. Herd density at coastal haulouts averaged 0.88 walruses/m2 (std. err. = 0.02), herd size ranged from 8,300 to 19,400 (CV 0.03–0.06) and we documented ~30,000 animals along ~1 km of beach in 2011. Within the herds, dependent walruses (0–2 yr-olds) tended to be located closer to water, and this tendency became more pronounced as the herd spent more time on the beach. Therefore, unbiased estimation of herd age-ratios will require a sampling design that allows for spatial and temporal structuring. In addition, randomly sampling walruses available at the edge of the herd for other purposes (e.g., tagging, biopsying) will not sample walruses with an age structure representative of the herd. Sea ice losses are projected to continue, and population age structure data collected with aerial videography at coastal haulouts may provide demographic information vital to ongoing efforts to understand effects of climate change on this species.

  13. Are the new automated methods for bone age estimation advantageous over the manual approaches?

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Sanctis, Vincenzo; Soliman, Ashraf T; Di Maio, Salvatore; Bedair, Said

    2014-12-01

    Bone Age Assessment (BAA) is performed worldwide for the evaluation of endocrine, genetic and chronic diseases, to monitor response to medical therapy and to determine the growth potential of children and adolescents. It is also used for consultation in planning orthopedic procedures, for determination of chronological age for adopted children, youth sports participation and in forensic settings. The main clinical methods for skeletal bone age estimation are the Greulich and Pyle (GP) and the Tanner and Whitehouse (TW) methods. Seventy six per cent (76%) of radiologists or pediatricians usually use the method of GP, 20% that of TW and 4% other methods. The advantages of using the TW method, as opposed to the GP method, are that it overcomes the subjectivity problem and results are more reproducible. However, it is complex and time consuming; for this reason its usage is just about 20% on a world-wide scale. Moreover, there are some evidences that bone age assignments by different physicians can differ significantly. Computerized and Quantitative Ultrasound Technologies (QUS) for assessing skeletal maturity have been developed with the aim of reducing many of the inconsistencies associated with radiographic investigations. In spite of the fact that the volume of automated methods for BAA has increased, the majotity of them are still in an early phase of development. QUS is comparable to the GP based method, but there is not enough established data yet for the healthy population. The Authors wish to stimulate the attention on the accuracy, reliability and consistency of BAA and to initiate a debate on manual versus automated approaches to enhance our assessment for skeletal matutation in children and adolescents.

  14. Dental age estimation in the living after completion of third molar mineralization: new data for Gustafson's criteria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timme, M; Timme, W H; Olze, A; Ottow, C; Ribbecke, S; Pfeiffer, H; Dettmeyer, R; Schmeling, A

    2017-03-01

    There is a need for dental age estimation methods after completion of the third molar mineralization. Degenerative dental characteristics appear to be suitable for forensic age diagnostics beyond the 18th year of life. In 2012, Olze et al. investigated the criteria studied by Gustafson using orthopantomograms. The objective of this study was to prove the applicability and reliability of this method with a large cohort and a wide age range, including older individuals. For this purpose, 2346 orthopantomograms of 1167 female and 1179 male Germans aged 15 to 70 years were reviewed. The characteristics of secondary dentin formation, cementum apposition, periodontal recession and attrition were evaluated in all the mandibular premolars. The correlation of the individual characteristics with the chronological age was examined by means of a stepwise multiple regression analysis, in which the chronological age formed the dependent variable. Following those results, R 2 values amounted to 0.73 to 0.8; the standard error of estimate was 6.8 to 8.2 years. Fundamentally, the recommendation for conducting age estimations in the living by these methods can be shared. The values for the quality of the regression are, however, not precise enough for a reliable age estimation around regular retirement date ages. More precise regression formulae for the age group of 15 to 40 years of life are separately presented in this study. Further research should investigate the influence of ethnicity, dietary habits and modern health care on the degenerative characteristics in question.

  15. The French-Canadian data set of Demirjian for dental age estimation: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayaraman, Jayakumar; Wong, Hai Ming; King, Nigel M; Roberts, Graham J

    2013-07-01

    Estimation of age of an individual can be performed by evaluating the pattern of dental development. A dataset for age estimation based on the dental maturity of a French-Canadian population was published over 35 years ago and has become the most widely accepted dataset. The applicability of this dataset has been tested on different population groups. To estimate the observed differences between Chronological age (CA) and Dental age (DA) when the French Canadian dataset was used to estimate the age of different population groups. A systematic search of literature for papers utilizing the French Canadian dataset for age estimation was performed. All language articles from PubMed, Embase and Cochrane databases were electronically searched for terms 'Demirjian' and 'Dental age' published between January 1973 and December 2011. A hand search of articles was also conducted. A total of 274 studies were identified from which 34 studies were included for qualitative analysis and 12 studies were included for quantitative assessment and meta-analysis. When synthesizing the estimation results from different population groups, on average, the Demirjian dataset overestimated the age of females by 0.65 years (-0.10 years to +2.82 years) and males by 0.60 years (-0.23 years to +3.04 years). The French Canadian dataset overestimates the age of the subjects by more than six months and hence this dataset should be used only with considerable caution when estimating age of group of subjects of any global population. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

  16. Finger counting method is more accurate than age-based weight estimation formulae in estimating the weight of Hong Kong children presenting to the emergency department.

    Science.gov (United States)

    So, Jerome Lt; Chow, Eric Pf; Cattermole, Giles N; Graham, Colin A; Rainer, Timothy H

    2016-12-01

    The aim of the present study was to evaluate the finger counting method and compare its performance with four commonly used age-based weight estimation formulae in children aged 1-9 years presenting to the ED in Hong Kong. A cross-sectional, observational study of children aged 1-9 years who presented to the ED of a tertiary referral hospital in Hong Kong over a 6 month period was conducted. Actual weight was compared with estimated weight using the finger counting method and four commonly used age-based weight estimation formulae. Bland-Altman analysis was performed to evaluate the degree of agreement in which the mean percentage difference (MPD) and 95% limits of agreement (LOA) were calculated. Root mean squared error (RMSE) and proportions of weight estimates within 10%, 15% and 20% of actual weight were determined. A total of 4178 children were included. The finger counting method was the most accurate method (MPD 0.1%; 95% LOA -34.0% to 34.2%). The original Advanced Paediatric Life Support (APLS) formula (MPD -7.0%; 95% LOA -38.4% to 24.3%) and the updated APLS formula (MPD -0.4%; 95% LOA -38.5% to 37.8%) underestimated weight whereas the Luscombe formula (MPD 7.2%; 95% LOA -31.8% to 46.2%) and the Best Guess formula (MPD 10.6%; 95% LOA -27.3% to 48.4%) overestimated weight. The finger counting method had smallest RMSE of 4.06 kg and estimated the largest proportion of children within 10%, 15% and 20% of actual weight. The finger counting method outperforms the commonly used age-based weight estimation formulae in children aged 1-9 years presenting to the ED in Hong Kong. © 2016 Australasian College for Emergency Medicine and Australasian Society for Emergency Medicine.

  17. MRI estimates of brain iron concentration in normal aging using quantitative susceptibility mapping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilgic, Berkin; Pfefferbaum, Adolf; Rohlfing, Torsten; Sullivan, Edith V; Adalsteinsson, Elfar

    2012-02-01

    versus FDRI, which again yielded perfect rank ordering of iron by brain structure. The final means of validation was to assess how well each in vivo method detected known age-related differences in regional iron concentrations measured in the same young and elderly healthy adults. Both QSM methods and FDRI were consistent in identifying higher iron concentrations in striatal and brain stem ROIs (i.e., caudate nucleus, putamen, globus pallidus, red nucleus, and substantia nigra) in the older than in the young group. The two QSM methods appeared more sensitive in detecting age differences in brain stem structures as they revealed differences of much higher statistical significance between the young and elderly groups than did FDRI. However, QSM values are influenced by factors such as the myelin content, whereas FDRI is a more specific indicator of iron content. Hence, FDRI demonstrated higher specificity to iron yet yielded noisier data despite longer scan times and lower spatial resolution than QSM. The robustness, practicality, and demonstrated ability of predicting the change in iron deposition in adult aging suggest that regularized QSM algorithms using single-field-strength data are possible alternatives to tissue iron estimation requiring two field strengths. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Correlations Between Hubble Residuals and MCMC Estimated Local Stellar Ages of Type Ia Supernovae

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Benjamin; Garnavich, Peter

    2018-01-01

    There appears to be correlations between SN Ia Hubble diagram residuals and host galaxy mass, metallicity, and star formation history. An uncorrected bias may produce a systematic offset in cosmological measurements. Global properties are the luminosity average of local environments, therefore the properties of local environments may hold stronger correlations than their global counterparts. There have been previous attempts at finding correlations between local environment properties and Hubble residuals, but nothing without contention has been seen. Looking at the host information from the SDSS Scene Modeling data, we use MCMC to constrain the properties of the stellar population using Flexible Stellar Population Synthesis. We estimate the stellar population's age and star formation history at each resolution element of the galaxy image. The stellar population properties are then compared to the SN Ia properties including the Hubble residuals in the search for correlations that could lead to any systematic bias.

  19. Estimation of lysine requirements of growing Japanese quail during the fourth and fifth weeks of age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehri, Mehran; Bagherzadeh Kasmani, Farzad; Asghari-Moghadam, Morteza

    2015-08-01

    A dose-response assay was conducted using broken-line regressions to estimate the lysine (Lys) requirements of quail chicks from 21 to 35 d of age. A basal diet was formulated to be adequate in all nutrients other than Lys. Incremental levels of L-Lys.HCl were added to the basal diet at the expense of a mix of cornstarch, NaHCO3, and NaCl to create 6 experimental diets containing 0.84 to 1.59% Lys. Feed intake (FI), weight gain (WG), and feed conversion ratio (FCR) responded quadratically to incremental levels of Lys (P Japanese quail at the late stage of production might be 1.36% of diet, which is 105% of NRC recommendations. © 2015 Poultry Science Association Inc.

  20. Age estimation of archaeological remains using amino acid racemization in dental enamel: a comparison of morphological, biochemical, and known ages-at-death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffin, R C; Chamberlain, A T; Hotz, G; Penkman, K E H; Collins, M J

    2009-10-01

    The poor accuracy of most current methods for estimating age-at-death in adult human skeletal remains is among the key problems facing palaeodemography. In forensic science, this problem has been solved for unburnt remains by the development of a chemical method for age estimation, using amino acid racemization in collagen extracted from dentine. Previous application of racemization methods to archaeological material has proven problematic. This study presents the application to archaeological human remains of a new age estimation method utilizing amino acid racemization in a potentially closed system-the dental enamel. The amino acid composition and extent of racemization in enamel from two Medieval cemeteries (Newcastle Blackgate and Grantham, England) and from a documented age-at-death sample from a 19th century cemetery (Spitalfriedhof St Johann, Switzerland) were determined. Alterations in the amino acid composition were detected in all populations, indicating that diagenetic change had taken place. However, in the Medieval populations, these changes did not appear to have substantially affected the relationship between racemization and age-at-death, with a strong relationship being retained between aspartic acid racemization and the morphological age estimates. In contrast, there was a poor relationship between racemization and age in the post-medieval documented age-at-death population from Switzerland. This appears to be due to leaching of amino acids post-mortem, indicating that enamel is not functioning as a perfectly closed system. Isolation of amino acids from a fraction of enamel which is less susceptible to leaching may improve the success of amino acid racemization for archaeological age estimation.

  1. Estimation of optimal lysine in quail chicks during the second and third weeks of age

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehran Mehri

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available An experiment was conducted to assess the optimal levels of dietary lysine (Lys in Japanese quail from 7 to 21 days of age. A dose-response diet was formulated to be adequate in all amino acid concentrations with the exception of Lys. Different levels of supplemental L-Lysine.HCl were added to the dose-response diet at the expense of corn starch, sodium bicarbonate, and NaCl to create 6 levels of Lys ranged from 0.91% to 1.51% in diet. Optimal Lys for feed conversion ratio, breast meat yield, and leg meat yield were estimated at 1.15%, 1.21%, and 1.16% of diet, respectively, based on linear broken-line regression. With quadratic broken-line regression, the Lys requirements for body weight gain, feed conversion ratio, thigh meat yield, and breast meat yield were estimated at 1.27%, 1.21%, 1.32%, and 1.34% of diet, respectively. Overall, Lys requirements of starting Japanese quail may be at least 1.34% of diet for optimizing carcass attributes fed low-CP dose-response diet.

  2. Age Estimation Based on Appearance of Gray Hair in Different Body Sites of Sri Lankan Autopsy Cases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senanayake, Harshana Mahendra Kumara; Wickramasinghe, Nuwan Darshana

    2017-07-01

    Owing to the scanty evidence on usefulness of information of appearance of gray hair for age estimation, this study was conducted to estimate age based on the appearance of gray hair on different body sites in a sample of autopsy cases in Sri Lanka. A descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted in Teaching Hospital-Kurunegala during 2011 to 2013. Based on the pattern of the presence of gray hair in different body sites, six stages of gray hair were computed. The analysis 1155 autopsy cases revealed strong, positive correlations between age and appearance of gray hair in head, mustache, beard, and pubic area among males and strong, positive correlations between age and the appearance of gray hair in head and pubic area among females (p hair for age estimation in the field of forensic science. © 2016 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  3. Precision and accuracy of age estimates obtained from anal fin spines, dorsal fin spines, and sagittal otoliths for known-age largemouth bass

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Zachary B.; Bonvechio, Timothy F.; Bowen, Bryant R.; Quist, Michael C.

    2017-01-01

    Sagittal otoliths are the preferred aging structure for Micropterus spp. (black basses) in North America because of the accurate and precise results produced. Typically, fisheries managers are hesitant to use lethal aging techniques (e.g., otoliths) to age rare species, trophy-size fish, or when sampling in small impoundments where populations are small. Therefore, we sought to evaluate the precision and accuracy of 2 non-lethal aging structures (i.e., anal fin spines, dorsal fin spines) in comparison to that of sagittal otoliths from known-age Micropterus salmoides (Largemouth Bass; n = 87) collected from the Ocmulgee Public Fishing Area, GA. Sagittal otoliths exhibited the highest concordance with true ages of all structures evaluated (coefficient of variation = 1.2; percent agreement = 91.9). Similarly, the low coefficient of variation (0.0) and high between-reader agreement (100%) indicate that age estimates obtained from sagittal otoliths were the most precise. Relatively high agreement between readers for anal fin spines (84%) and dorsal fin spines (81%) suggested the structures were relatively precise. However, age estimates from anal fin spines and dorsal fin spines exhibited low concordance with true ages. Although use of sagittal otoliths is a lethal technique, this method will likely remain the standard for aging Largemouth Bass and other similar black bass species.

  4. Estimations of evapotranspiration in an age sequence of Eucalyptus plantations in subtropical China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Wenfei; Wu, Jianping; Fan, Houbao; Duan, Honglang; Li, Qiang; Yuan, Yinghong; Zhang, Hao

    2017-01-01

    Eucalyptus species are widely planted for reforestation in subtropical China. However, the effects of Eucalyptus plantations on the regional water use remain poorly understood. In an age sequence of 2-, 4- and 6-year-old Eucalyptus plantations, the tree water use and soil evaporation were examined by linking model estimations and field observations. Results showed that annual evapotranspiration of each age sequence Eucalyptus plantations was 876.7, 944.1 and 1000.7 mm, respectively, accounting for 49.81%, 53.64% and 56.86% of the annual rainfall. In addition, annual soil evaporations of 2-, 4- and 6-year-old were 318.6, 336.1, and 248.7 mm of the respective Eucalyptus plantations. Our results demonstrated that Eucalyptus plantations would potentially reduce water availability due to high evapotranspiration in subtropical regions. Sustainable management strategies should be implemented to reduce water consumption in Eucalyptus plantations in the context of future climate change scenarios such as drought and warming.

  5. Estimations of evapotranspiration in an age sequence of Eucalyptus plantations in subtropical China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenfei Liu

    Full Text Available Eucalyptus species are widely planted for reforestation in subtropical China. However, the effects of Eucalyptus plantations on the regional water use remain poorly understood. In an age sequence of 2-, 4- and 6-year-old Eucalyptus plantations, the tree water use and soil evaporation were examined by linking model estimations and field observations. Results showed that annual evapotranspiration of each age sequence Eucalyptus plantations was 876.7, 944.1 and 1000.7 mm, respectively, accounting for 49.81%, 53.64% and 56.86% of the annual rainfall. In addition, annual soil evaporations of 2-, 4- and 6-year-old were 318.6, 336.1, and 248.7 mm of the respective Eucalyptus plantations. Our results demonstrated that Eucalyptus plantations would potentially reduce water availability due to high evapotranspiration in subtropical regions. Sustainable management strategies should be implemented to reduce water consumption in Eucalyptus plantations in the context of future climate change scenarios such as drought and warming.

  6. Dental age estimation in living individuals using 3.0 T MRI of lower third molars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Yucheng; Olze, Andreas; Ottow, Christian; Schmidt, Sven; Schulz, Ronald; Heindel, Walter; Pfeiffer, Heidi; Vieth, Volker; Schmeling, Andreas

    2015-11-01

    In order to increase the validity of age estimation in adolescents and young adults when there is no legitimation for X-ray examinations, it seems desirable to be able to assess the mineralization of third molars using X-ray-free imaging procedures. In the present study, the mineralization stages of lower third molars were determined prospectively in 269 male and 248 female individuals aged 12 to 24 years using 3.0 T MRI. The classification system of Demirjian et al. was used to determine the stages. This study presents the minima and maxima, means and standard deviations, median values, and lower and upper quartiles separately for both sexes, for the mineralization stages B-H. Statistically significant sex differences were observed for the mineralization stages C, E, F, and G, and a faster developmental rate was observed for males. It was concluded that magnetic resonance imaging is an X-ray-free alternative to orthopantomography when assessing mineralization of third molars.

  7. Exposure to movie smoking among US adolescents aged 10 to 14 years: a population estimate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sargent, James D; Tanski, Susanne E; Gibson, Jennifer

    2007-05-01

    Several studies have linked seeing smoking in movies with adolescent smoking, but none have determined how much movie smoking adolescents see. Our aim was to determine exposure to movie smoking in a representative sample of young US adolescents. METHODS. We surveyed 6522 nationally representative US adolescents aged 10-14 years. We content analyzed 534 contemporary box-office hits for movie smoking. Each movie was assigned to a random subsample of adolescents (mean: 613) who were asked whether they had seen the movie. Using survey weights, we estimated the total number of US adolescents who had seen each movie and then multiplied by the number of smoking depictions in each movie to obtain gross smoking impressions seen by adolescents. The 534 movies were mainly rated PG-13 (41%) and R (40%), and 74% contained smoking (3830 total smoking occurrences). On average, each movie was seen by 25% of the adolescents surveyed. Viewership was higher with increased age and lower for R-rated movies. Overall, these movies delivered 13.9 billion gross smoking impressions, an average of 665 to each US adolescent aged 10-14 years. Although this sample's R-rated movies contained 60% of smoking occurrences, they delivered only 39% of smoking impressions because of lower adolescent viewership. Thirty popular movies each delivered > or =100 million gross smoking impressions. Thirty actors each delivered >50 million smoking impressions, such that just 1.5% of actors delivered one quarter of all character smoking to the adolescent sample. Popular movies deliver billions of smoking images and character smoking depictions to young US adolescents. Removing smoking from youth-rated films would substantially reduce exposure from new box-office hits. Furthermore, the popular actors who frequently smoke in movies could have a major impact on adolescent movie smoking exposure by choosing not to portray characters who smoke.

  8. Estimation of genetic, phenotypic and environmental trends for body weights at different ages in Lori sheep

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    zahra yeganehpour

    2016-04-01

    estimation genetic gain. Little information is available on the estimation genetic trends for body weight traits in Lori sheep. Hereupon the objective of the present study was to estimate genetic, phenotypic and environmental trends for body weight traits at different ages in Lori sheep to assess the breeding programmes. Material and Methods In the current study, 6440, 5646, 5073 and 4757 records of birth weight (BW, weaning weigh (WW, 6-month weigh (6MW and 9-month weigh (9MW of Lori sheep were used. Data were collected from 2001 to 2010 by the agricultural and natural resources research centre of Lorestan province Lorestan Agricultural & Natural Resources Research Center. Direct and maternal heritability were estimated using restricted maximum likelihood by fitting six uni-variate animal models. Akaike’s information criterion (AIC was used to selecting (to select or in/for selecting the most appropriate model for each trait. Breeding values were estimated by the best model for uni-variate analysis. Genetic, phenotypic and environmental trends were calculated by regression of means of predicted breeding values, phenotypic means and difference between estimated means of breeding values and phenotypic means on birth year for each trait, respectively. Wombat software was performed to obtaining direct and maternal (co variance components and heritability estimations for body weight at different ages in Lori sheep. Genetic trends analyses were performed by the regression procedure of the SAS software package. Results and Discussion The phenotypic trends for BW, WW, 6MW and 9MW were 0.016, 0.065, 0.032 and -0.783 kg per year, respectively. The direct genetic trends for BW, WW, 6MW and 9MW were 0.008, 0.001, 0.055 and 0.076 kg per year, respectively. The direct genetic trends were significant for all of the traits with the exception of 9MW. Genetic gain for BW, WW, 6MW and 9MW were 0.061, 0.007, 0.139 and 0.150 kg after 10 years, respectively. Hence, genetic gain for all of the

  9. Using data on social contacts to estimate age-specific transmission parameters for respiratory-spread infectious agents.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wallinga, Jacco; Teunis, Peter F M; Kretzschmar, Mirjam

    2006-01-01

    The estimation of transmission parameters has been problematic for diseases that rely predominantly on transmission of pathogens from person to person through small infectious droplets. Age-specific transmission parameters determine how such respiratory agents will spread among different age groups

  10. Relative and absolute risk in epidemiology and health physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldsmith, R.; Peterson, H.T. Jr.

    1983-01-01

    The health risk from ionizing radiation commonly is expressed in two forms: (1) the relative risk, which is the percentage increase in natural disease rate and (2) the absolute or attributable risk which represents the difference between the natural rate and the rate associated with the agent in question. Relative risk estimates for ionizing radiation generally are higher than those expressed as the absolute risk. This raises the question of which risk estimator is the most appropriate under different conditions. The absolute risk has generally been used for radiation risk assessment, although mathematical combinations such as the arithmetic or geometric mean of both the absolute and relative risks, have also been used. Combinations of the two risk estimators are not valid because the absolute and relative risk are not independent variables. Both human epidemiologic studies and animal experimental data can be found to illustrate the functional relationship between the natural cancer risk and the risk associated with radiation. This implies that the radiation risk estimate derived from one population may not be appropriate for predictions in another population, unless it is adjusted for the difference in the natural disease incidence between the two populations

  11. A method for estimating age of medieval sub-adults from infancy to adulthood based on long bone length

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Primeau, Charlotte; Friis, Laila Saidane; Sejrsen, Birgitte

    2016-01-01

    AND METHODS: A total of 183 skeletal sub-adults from the Danish medieval period, were aged from radiographic images. Linear regression formulae were then produced for individual bones. Age was then estimated from the femur length using three different methods: equations developed in this study, data based...... as later than the medieval period, although this would require further testing. The quadratic equations are suggested to yield more accurate ages then using simply linear regression equations. Am J Phys Anthropol, 2015. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.......OBJECTIVES: To develop a series of regression equations for estimating age from length of long bones for archaeological sub-adults when aging from dental development cannot be performed. Further, to compare derived ages when using these regression equations, and two other methods. MATERIAL...

  12. Estimating true age-dependence in survival when only adults can be observed: an example with Black-legged Kittiwakes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frederiksen, M.

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available In long-lived birds, pre-breeders are often difficult or impossible to observe, and even though a proportion of marked adults may be of known age, the estimation of age-specific survival is complicated by the absence of observations during the first years of life. New developments in MARK now allow use of an updated individual covariate. We used this powerful approach to model age-dependence in survival of Black-legged Kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla at a North Sea colony. Although only 69 marked breeders were of known age, there was strong evidence for a quadratic relationship between true age and survival. We believe that this simple but powerful approach could be implemented for many species and could provide improved estimates of how survival changes with age, a central theme in life history theory.

  13. Cerebral Blood Flow and Aβ-Amyloid Estimates by WARM Analysis of [11C]PiB Uptake Distinguish among and between Neurodegenerative Disorders and Aging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodell, Anders B; O'Keefe, Graeme; Rowe, Christopher C; Villemagne, Victor L; Gjedde, Albert

    2016-01-01

    Background: We report results of the novel Washout Allometric Reference Method (WARM) that uses estimates of cerebral blood flow and amyloid load from the same [ 11 C]Pittsburgh Compound B ([ 11 C]PiB) retention maps in brain to distinguish between patients with different forms dementia, including Alzheimer's disease, and healthy volunteers. The method introduces two approaches to the identification of brain pathology related to amyloid accumulation, (1) a novel analysis of amyloid binding based on the late washout of the tracer from brain tissue, and (2) the simultaneous estimation of absolute cerebral blood flow indices (sCBF) from the early accumulation of the tracer in brain tissue. Objective: We tested the hypothesis that a change of cerebral blood flow is correlated with the degree of tracer [ 11 C]PiB retention, reflecting dendritic spine pathology and consequent inhibition of brain energy metabolism and reduction of blood flow by neurovascular coupling in neurodegenerative disorders, including Alzheimer's disease. Methods: Previously reported images of [ 11 C]PiB retention in brain of 29 subjects with cognitive impairment or dementia [16 Alzheimer's Disease (AD), eight subjects with dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB), five patients with frontotemporal lobar degeneration (FTLD), five patients with mild cognitive impairment, and 29 age-matched healthy control subjects (HC)], underwent analysis of PiB delivery and retention by means of WARM for quantitation of [ 11 C]PiB's binding potentials ( BP ND ) and correlated surrogate cerebral blood flow (sCBF) estimates, based on the [ 11 C]PiB images, compared to estimates by conventional Standard Uptake Value Ratio (SUVR) of [ 11 C]PiB retention with cerebellum gray matter as reference. Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) revealed the power of discrimination among estimates. Results: For AD, the discriminatory power of [ 11 C]PiB binding potential ( BP ND ) by WARM exceeded the power of SUVR that in turn exceeded

  14. Multivariate methods for the analysis of complex and big data in forensic sciences. Application to age estimation in living persons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lefèvre, Thomas; Chariot, Patrick; Chauvin, Pierre

    2016-09-01

    Researchers handle increasingly higher dimensional datasets, with many variables to explore. Such datasets pose several problems, since they are difficult to handle and present unexpected features. As dimensionality increases, classical statistical analysis becomes inoperative. Variables can present redundancy, and the reduction of dataset dimensionality to its lowest possible value is often needed. Principal components analysis (PCA) has proven useful to reduce dimensionality but present several shortcomings. As others, forensic sciences will face the issues specific related to an evergrowing quantity of data to be integrated. Age estimation in living persons, an unsolved problem so far, could benefit from the integration of various sources of data, e.g., clinical, dental and radiological data. We present here novel multivariate techniques (nonlinear dimensionality reduction techniques, NLDR), applied to a theoretical example. Results were compared to those of PCA. NLDR techniques were then applied to clinical, dental and radiological data (13 variables) used for age estimation. The correlation dimension of these data was estimated. NLDR techniques outperformed PCA results. They showed that two living persons sharing similar characteristics may present rather different estimated ages. Moreover, data presented a very high informational redundancy, i.e., a correlation dimension of 2. NLDR techniques should be used with or preferred to PCA techniques to analyze complex and big data. Data routinely used for age estimation may not be considered suitable for this purpose. How integrating other data or approaches could improve age estimation in living persons is still uncertain. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Extra petals in the buttercup (Ranunculus repens) provide a quick method to estimate the age of meadows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, John

    2009-01-01

    Background and Aims There is a widely used crude method to estimate the age of hedgerows (Hooper's rule) based on species' richness. The aim of this study was to try and establish a similar field method for estimating the age of grasslands based on the accumulation of macro-somatic mutations. Methods A countrywide survey was carried out by the British public to investigate the relationship between grassland age and the number of Ranunculus repens (creeping buttercup) plants with extra petals. In addition the relationship between grassland age and R. repens pollen viability was also investigated. Key Results Each plant with flowers with additional petals in a sample of 100 was found to equate to approx. 7 years. A higher significant correlation was observed between pollen viability and population age; however, this is not amenable to providing field estimates. Conclusions The age of British grasslands can be easily and reliably estimated in the field by counting the number flowers with additional petals in R. repens in meadows up to 200 years old. An attempt to estimate the heritability of extra petals suggests that the phenotype results from the slow accumulation of somatic mutations in a species that primarily reproduces vegetatively. PMID:19491088

  16. Extra petals in the buttercup (Ranunculus repens) provide a quick method to estimate the age of meadows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, John

    2009-09-01

    There is a widely used crude method to estimate the age of hedgerows (Hooper's rule) based on species' richness. The aim of this study was to try and establish a similar field method for estimating the age of grasslands based on the accumulation of macro-somatic mutations. A countrywide survey was carried out by the British public to investigate the relationship between grassland age and the number of Ranunculus repens (creeping buttercup) plants with extra petals. In addition the relationship between grassland age and R. repens pollen viability was also investigated. Each plant with flowers with additional petals in a sample of 100 was found to equate to approx. 7 years. A higher significant correlation was observed between pollen viability and population age; however, this is not amenable to providing field estimates. The age of British grasslands can be easily and reliably estimated in the field by counting the number flowers with additional petals in R. repens in meadows up to 200 years old. An attempt to estimate the heritability of extra petals suggests that the phenotype results from the slow accumulation of somatic mutations in a species that primarily reproduces vegetatively.

  17. A method for estimating age of medieval sub-adults from infancy to adulthood based on long bone length.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Primeau, Charlotte; Friis, Laila; Sejrsen, Birgitte; Lynnerup, Niels

    2016-01-01

    To develop a series of regression equations for estimating age from length of long bones for archaeological sub-adults when aging from dental development cannot be performed. Further, to compare derived ages when using these regression equations, and two other methods. A total of 183 skeletal sub-adults from the Danish medieval period, were aged from radiographic images. Linear regression formulae were then produced for individual bones. Age was then estimated from the femur length using three different methods: equations developed in this study, data based on a modern population (Maresh: Human growth and development (1970) pp 155-200), and, lastly, based on archeological data with known ages (Rissech et al.: Forensic Sci Int 180 (2008) 1-9). As growth of long bones is known to be non-linear it was tested if the regression model could be improved by applying a quadratic model. Comparison between estimated ages revealed that the modern data result in lower estimated ages when compared to the Danish regression equations. The estimated ages using the Danish regression equations and the regression equations developed by Rissech et al. (Forensic Sci Int 180 (2007) 1-9) were very similar, if not identical. This indicates that the growth between the two archaeological populations is not that dissimilar. This would suggest that the regression equations developed in this study may potentially be applied to archaeological material outside Denmark as well as later than the medieval period, although this would require further testing. The quadratic equations are suggested to yield more accurate ages then using simply linear regression equations. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  18. Should total landings be used to correct estimated catch in numbers or mean-weight-at-age?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lewy, Peter; Lassen, H.

    1997-01-01

    Many ICES fish stock assessment working groups have practised Sum Of Products, SOP, correction. This correction stems from a comparison of total weights of the known landings and the SOP over age of catch in number and mean weight-at-age, which ideally should be identical. In case of SOP...... discrepancies some countries correct catch in numbers while others correct mean weight-at-age by a common factor, the ratio between landing and SOP. The paper shows that for three sampling schemes the SOP corrections are statistically incorrect and should not be made since the SOP is an unbiased estimate...... of the total landings. Calculation of the bias of estimated catch in numbers and mean weight-at-age shows that SOP corrections of either of these estimates may increase the bias. Furthermore, for five demersal and one pelagic North Sea species it is shown that SOP discrepancies greater than 2% from...

  19. A Unified tool to estimate Distances, Ages, and Masses (UniDAM) from spectrophotometric data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mints, Alexey; Hekker, Saskia

    2017-08-01

    Context. Galactic archaeology, the study of the formation and evolution of the Milky Way by reconstructing its past from its current constituents, requires precise and accurate knowledge of stellar parameters for as many stars as possible. To achieve this, a number of large spectroscopic surveys have been undertaken and are still ongoing. Aims: So far consortia carrying out the different spectroscopic surveys have used different tools to determine stellar parameters of stars from their derived effective temperatures (Teff), surface gravities (log g), and metallicities ([Fe/H]); the parameters can be combined with photometric, astrometric, interferometric, or asteroseismic information. Here we aim to homogenise the stellar characterisation by applying a unified tool to a large set of publicly available spectrophotometric data. Methods: We used spectroscopic data from a variety of large surveys combined with infrared photometry from 2MASS and AllWISE and compared these in a Bayesian manner with PARSEC isochrones to derive probability density functions (PDFs) for stellar masses, ages, and distances. We treated PDFs of pre-helium-core burning, helium-core burning, and post helium-core burning solutions as well as different peaks in multimodal PDFs (I.e. each unimodal sub-PDF) of the different evolutionary phases separately. Results: For over 2.5 million stars we report mass, age, and distance estimates for each evolutionary phase and unimodal sub-PDF. We report Gaussian, skewed, Gaussian, truncated Gaussian, modified truncated exponential distribution or truncated Student's t-distribution functions to represent each sub-PDF, allowing us to reconstruct detailed PDFs. Comparisons with stellar parameter estimates from the literature show good agreement within uncertainties. Conclusions: We present UniDAM, the unified tool applicable to spectrophotometric data of different surveys, to obtain a homogenised set of stellar parameters. The unified tool and the tables with

  20. Family Sponsorship and Late-Age Immigration in Aging America: Revised and Expanded Estimates of Chained Migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, Stacie; Tienda, Marta

    2013-12-01

    We use the Immigrants Admitted to the United States (micro-data) supplemented with special tabulations from the Department of Homeland Security to examine how family reunification impacts the age composition of new immigrant cohorts since 1980. We develop a family migration multiplier measure for the period 1981 to 2009 that improves on prior studies by including immigrants granted legal status under the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act and relaxing unrealistic assumptions required by synthetic cohort measures. Results show that every 100 initiating immigrants admitted between 1981-85 sponsored an average of 260 family members; the comparable figure for initiating immigrants for the 1996-2000 cohort is 345 family members. Furthermore, the number of family migrants ages 50 and over rose from 44 to 74 per 100 initiating migrants. The discussion considers the health and welfare implications of late-age immigration in a climate of growing fiscal restraint and an aging native population.

  1. Forensic age estimation in anti-piracy trials in Seychelles: Experiences and challenges faced.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunawardena, S A; Liyanage, U A; Weeratna, J B; Mendis, N D N A; Perera, H J M; Jayasekara, R W; Fernando, R

    2017-01-01

    Forensic age estimation (FAE) was conducted using a multifactorial method on thirteen Somali detainees claiming juvenile status during the anti-piracy trials of the Seychelles Supreme Court in 2014/2015. A multidisciplinary team, comprising of four of the authors covering specialties in forensic medicine, forensic odontology and radiology, conducted the FAE using a five-stage protocol. Each detainee was interviewed with an interpreter and examined for disorders affecting dental/skeletal development and for assessment of genital development through Tanner staging. Dental maturity was assessed clinically and radiologically. Eruption stage was assessed using Olze et al. and mandibular third-molar maturity was assessed using Demirjian's classification. Skeletal maturity was assessed from hand-wrist X-rays according to Greulich & Pyle and from CT-clavicle according to Kellinghaus et al. and Schultz et al. Interpretation of findings was done using reference population data from similar ethnic and social backgrounds wherever possible. Final age-ranges were calculated by combining dental and clavicle maturity stages using the regression formula developed by Bassed et al. followed by a 10% correction factor. The team later testified on their findings under cross-examination. The protocol adopted by the authors increased the scientific validity of the findings and was useful in addressing cross-examination queries on exclusion of developmental disorders, ethnic/socioeconomic variability and maintaining chain of custody. Unforeseen jurisdictional and practical limitations were experienced but did not affect the outcome. Combining dental and clavicle developmental data provided the court with a much clearer picture on the likelihood of the detainees' juvenile status which emphasizes the importance of conducting more population studies using combinations of different developmental sites. The authors note that available reference data is mostly from affluent populations whereas

  2. Revised age estimates of Australopithecus-bearing deposits at Sterkfontein, South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berger, Lee R; Lacruz, Rodrigo; De Ruiter, Darryl J

    2002-10-01

    The Sterkfontein fossil site in South Africa has produced the largest concentration of early hominin fossils from a single locality. Recent reports suggest that Australopithecus from this site is found within a broad paleontological age of between 2.5-3.5 Ma (Partridge [2000] The Cenozoic of Southern Africa, Oxford: Oxford Monographs, p. 100-125; Partridge et al. [2000a], The Cenozoic of Southern Africa, Oxford: Oxford Monographs, p. 129-130; Kuman and Clarke [2000] J Hum Evol 38:827-847). Specifically, the hominin fossil commonly referred to as the "Little Foot" skeleton from Member 2, which is arguably the most complete early hominin skeleton yet discovered, has been magnetostratigraphically dated to 3.30-3.33 Ma (Partridge [2000] The Cenozoic of Southern Africa, Oxford: Oxford Monographs, p. 100-125; Partridge et al. [2000a], The Cenozoic of Southern Africa, Oxford: Oxford Monographs, p. 129-130). More recent claims suggest that hominin fossils from the Jacovec Cavern are even older, being dated to approximately 3.5 Ma. Our interpretation of the fauna, the archeometric results, and the magnetostratigraphy of Sterkfontein indicate that it is unlikely that any Members yet described from Sterkfontein are in excess of 3.04 Ma in age. We estimate that Member 2, including the Little Foot skeleton, is younger than 3.0 Ma, and that Member 4, previously dated to between 2.4-2.8 Ma, is more likely to fall between 1.5-2.5 Ma. Our results suggest that Australopithecus africanus should not be considered as a temporal contemporary of Australopithecus afarensis, Australopithecus bahrelghazali, and Kenyanthropus platyops. Copyright 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  3. Estimate of multiplicative and additive age adjustment factors for milk yield for the Mediterranean Italian Buffalo Breed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Parlato

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available This study was carried out to estimate multiplicative and additive age adjustment factors for milk yield for the Mediterranean Italian Buffalo Breed for a mature age base (55 months, parity 2 with a mixed model procedure. Fixed effects of age-parity classes and random effects of contemporary group, genetic and permanent environmental effects of cows were included in the model. Two data sets were formed: Data Set I consisted of 83,810 lactation records and was used to develop the age factors. Data Set II consisted of 115,242 lactation records and was used for validation of the age factors estimated from Data Set I. Additive and multiplicative factors followed the same trend within the three parities (parity 1, parity 2, and parity ≥ 3. Averages of milk yield by age class for Data Set II pre-adjusted with multiplicative and additive factors from Data Set I were similar and tended to follow a straight line as expected. However, multiplicative factors might be preferred to additive factors because they would be affected less by an increase of the average milk yield due to selection or management. Age factors were smoothed to reduce differences among factors for similar age-parity classes. The smoothed age factors showed only slight differences among averages for similar age-parity classes, which suggests that the smoothed age factors may be more appropriate than the original factors.

  4. Age estimation in forensic anthropology: quantification of observer error in phase versus component-based methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shirley, Natalie R; Ramirez Montes, Paula Andrea

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess observer error in phase versus component-based scoring systems used to develop age estimation methods in forensic anthropology. A method preferred by forensic anthropologists in the AAFS was selected for this evaluation (the Suchey-Brooks method for the pubic symphysis). The Suchey-Brooks descriptions were used to develop a corresponding component-based scoring system for comparison. Several commonly used reliability statistics (kappa, weighted kappa, and the intraclass correlation coefficient) were calculated to assess observer agreement between two observers and to evaluate the efficacy of each of these statistics for this study. The linear weighted kappa was determined to be the most suitable measure of observer agreement. The results show that a component-based system offers the possibility for more objective scoring than a phase system as long as the coding possibilities for each trait do not exceed three states of expression, each with as little overlap as possible. © 2014 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  5. Accuracy in the legal age estimation according to the third molars mineralization among Mexicans and Columbians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, José; Montero, Javier; Serrano, Sarai; Albaladejo, Alberto; López-Valverde, Antonio; Bica, Isabel

    2014-11-01

    This study aims to assess the accuracy of age estimation according to two cut-off points of Demirjian's developmental stages (G and H) in the wisdom teeth, using panoramic radiographs from Colombian and Mexican teenagers. The degree of maturation of the third molars was classified according to Demirjian in 8 stages (from A to H) by a blinded trained assessor. The sensitivity, specificity and efficacy of two cut-off points (G and H) were calculated for both samples. The orthopantomographies of 316 subjects, 171 Colombians (54.1%) and 145 Mexicans (45.9%), were analyzed. The stage H was found to be the best threshold for detecting juveniles (because the high specificity) in all the third molars assessed. The specificity was higher for lower third molars than for upper third molars, but no asymmetrical discrepancy was noted. The stage H is the best cut-off point for detecting the adulthood when a high-specificity test is required. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  6. Performance estimation of control rod position indicator due to aging of magnet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Je Yong; Kim, Ji Ho; Huh, Hyung; Choi, Myoung Hwan; Sohn, Dong Seong

    2009-01-01

    The Control Element Drive Mechanism (CEDM) for the integral reactor is designed to raise and lower the control rod in steps of 2mm in order to satisfy the design features of the integral reactor which are the soluble boron free operation and the use of a nuclear heating for the reactor start-up. The actual position of the control rod could be achieved to sense the magnet connected to the control rod by the position indicator around the upper pressure housing of CEDM. It is sufficient that the actual position information of control rod at 20mm interval from the position indicator is used for the core safety analysis. As the magnet moves upward along the position indicator assembly from the bottom to the top in the upper pressure housing, the output voltage increases linearly step-wise at 0.2VDC increments. Between every step there are transient areas which occur by a contact closing of three reed switches which is the 2-3-2 contact closing sequence. In this paper the output voltage signal corresponding to the position of control rod was estimated on the 2-1-2 contact closing sequence due to the aging of the magnet.

  7. Estimating the age structure of a buried adult population: a new statistical approach applied to archaeological digs in France.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Séguy, Isabelle; Caussinus, Henri; Courgeau, Daniel; Buchet, Luc

    2013-02-01

    Paleodemographers have developed several methods for estimating the age structure of historical populations in absence of civil registration data. Starting from biological indicators alone, they use a reference population of known sex and age to assess the conditional distribution of the biological indicator given age. However, the small amount of data available and the unstable nature of the related statistical problem mean that most methods are disappointing. Using the most reliable reference data possible, we propose a simple statistical method, integrating the maximum amount of information included in the actual data, which quite significantly improves age estimates for a buried population. Here the method is applied to a French cemetery used from Late Antiquity to the end of the Early Middle Ages. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. Age estimation by assessment of pulp chamber volume: a Bayesian network for the evaluation of dental evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sironi, Emanuele; Taroni, Franco; Baldinotti, Claudio; Nardi, Cosimo; Norelli, Gian-Aristide; Gallidabino, Matteo; Pinchi, Vilma

    2017-11-14

    The present study aimed to investigate the performance of a Bayesian method in the evaluation of dental age-related evidence collected by means of a geometrical approximation procedure of the pulp chamber volume. Measurement of this volume was based on three-dimensional cone beam computed tomography images. The Bayesian method was applied by means of a probabilistic graphical model, namely a Bayesian network. Performance of that method was investigated in terms of accuracy and bias of the decisional outcomes. Influence of an informed elicitation of the prior belief of chronological age was also studied by means of a sensitivity analysis. Outcomes in terms of accuracy were adequate with standard requirements for forensic adult age estimation. Findings also indicated that the Bayesian method does not show a particular tendency towards under- or overestimation of the age variable. Outcomes of the sensitivity analysis showed that results on estimation are improved with a ration elicitation of the prior probabilities of age.

  9. Incremental lines in root cementum of human teeth: An approach to their role in age estimation using polarizing microscopy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aggarwal Pooja

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Age estimation is an important factor in the identification of an individual in forensic science. The hard tissues of the human dentition are able to resist decay and degradation long after other tissues are lost. This resistance has made teeth useful indicators for age calculation. Recent research indicates that tooth cementum annulations (TCA may be used more reliably than any other morphological or histological traits of the adult skeleton for age estimation. The purpose of this study was to examine the correlation between age and the number of incremental lines in human dental cementum and to ascertain the best method of studying cementum with respect to different forms of microscopy. Thirty nonrestorable teeth were extracted from 20 people, and longitudinal ground section of each tooth was prepared. Photomicrographs of the area at the junction of apical and middle third of the root under light and polarized microscope were taken. The cementum was composed of multiple light and dark bands that were counted on the photomicrograph with the help of image analysis software and added to the average eruption time of individual tooth. The predicted age of the individual was thus obtained. Results showed a significant correlation between the predicted age and actual chronological age of the individual. These data indicate that quantitation of cementum annuli is a moderately reliable means for age estimation in humans and polarizing microscopy is a better means of visualizing incremental lines of cementum compared to light microscopy.

  10. Radiologic assessment of third molar tooth and spheno-occipital synchondrosis for age estimation: a multiple regression analysis study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demirturk Kocasarac, Husniye; Sinanoglu, Alper; Noujeim, Marcel; Helvacioglu Yigit, Dilek; Baydemir, Canan

    2016-05-01

    For forensic age estimation, radiographic assessment of third molar mineralization is important between 14 and 21 years which coincides with the legal age in most countries. The spheno-occipital synchondrosis (SOS) is an important growth site during development, and its use for age estimation is beneficial when combined with other markers. In this study, we aimed to develop a regression model to estimate and narrow the age range based on the radiologic assessment of third molar and SOS in a Turkish subpopulation. Panoramic radiographs and cone beam CT scans of 349 subjects (182 males, 167 females) with age between 8 and 25 were evaluated. Four-stage system was used to evaluate the fusion degree of SOS, and Demirjian's eight stages of development for calcification for third molars. The Pearson correlation indicated a strong positive relationship between age and third molar calcification for both sexes (r = 0.850 for females, r = 0.839 for males, P age and SOS fusion for females (r = 0.814), but a moderate relationship was found for males (r = 0.599), P age determination formula using these scores was established.

  11. Modeling Bone Surface Morphology: A Fully Quantitative Method for Age-at-Death Estimation Using the Pubic Symphysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slice, Dennis E; Algee-Hewitt, Bridget F B

    2015-07-01

    The pubic symphysis is widely used in age estimation for the adult skeleton. Standard practice requires the visual comparison of surface morphology against criteria representing predefined phases and the estimation of case-specific age from an age range associated with the chosen phase. Known problems of method and observer error necessitate alternative tools to quantify age-related change in pubic morphology. This paper presents an objective, fully quantitative method for estimating age-at-death from the skeleton, which exploits a variance-based score of surface complexity computed from vertices obtained from a scanner sampling the pubic symphysis. For laser scans from 41 modern American male skeletons, this method produces results that are significantly associated with known age-at-death (RMSE = 17.15 years). Chronological age is predicted, therefore, equally well, if not, better, with this robust, objective, and fully quantitative method than with prevailing phase-aging systems. This method contributes to forensic casework by responding to medico-legal expectations for evidence standards. © 2015 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  12. Efficacy of intrahepatic absolute alcohol in unrespectable hepatocellular carcinoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farooqi, J.I.; Hameed, K.; Khan, I.U.; Shah, S.

    2001-01-01

    To determine efficacy of intrahepatic absolute alcohol injection in researchable hepatocellular carcinoma. A randomized, controlled, experimental and interventional clinical trial. Gastroenterology Department, PGMI, Hayatabad Medical Complex, Peshawar during the period from June, 1998 to June, 2000. Thirty patients were treated by percutaneous, intrahepatic absolute alcohol injection sin repeated sessions, 33 patients were not given or treated with alcohol to serve as control. Both the groups were comparable for age, sex and other baseline characteristics. Absolute alcohol therapy significantly improved quality of life of patients, reduced the tumor size and mortality as well as showed significantly better results regarding survival (P< 0.05) than the patients of control group. We conclude that absolute alcohol is a beneficial and safe palliative treatment measure in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). (author)

  13. Digitized morphometric analysis of dental pulp of permanent mandibular second molar for age estimation of Davangere population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Nerella Narendra; Panchaksharappa, Mamatha Gowda; Annigeri, Rajeshwari G

    2016-04-01

    The aim of the present study is to estimate the age of Davangere population by evaluating the pulp to tooth area ratio (PTR) by using digitized intraoral periapical radiographs of permanent mandibular second molar. 400 intraoral periapical radiograph (IOPA) of permanent mandibular 2nd molar of both the sexes aged 14-60 years were used. Digital camera was used to image the radiographs. Images were computed and PTR was calculated by AUTOCAD software. Intra and Inter observer variability was also assessed. Regression analysis was used to estimate the age of an individual by taking PTR as dependent variable. The mean PTR of males and females was 0.10 ± 0.02 and 0.09 ± 0.02 respectively. Negative correlation was observed, when age was compared with PTR {r = -0.441, -0.406 & -0.419 among males, females and total subjects (p AUTOCAD software. Also high differences were observed between estimated and chronological age of 12 years which is not in the acceptable range. But it provides a new window for research in the forensic sciences in estimating the adult age. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

  14. Photoanthropometric face iridial proportions for age estimation: An investigation using features selected via a joint mutual information criterion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borges, Díbio L; Vidal, Flávio B; Flores, Marta R P; Melani, Rodolfo F H; Guimarães, Marco A; Machado, Carlos E P

    2018-03-01

    Age assessment from images is of high interest in the forensic community because of the necessity to establish formal protocols to identify child pornography, child missing and abuses where visual evidences are the mostly admissible. Recently, photoanthropometric methods have been found useful for age estimation correlating facial proportions in image databases with samples of some age groups. Notwithstanding the advances, newer facial features and further analysis are needed to improve accuracy and establish larger applicability. In this investigation, frontal images of 1000 individuals (500 females, 500 males), equally distributed in five age groups (6, 10, 14, 18, 22 years old) were used in a 10 fold cross-validated experiment for three age thresholds classifications (age classifications (age assessment from images using the metric approach. Still, larger samples are necessary to evaluate reliability in extensive conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Absolute metrology for space interferometers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvadé, Yves; Courteville, Alain; Dändliker, René

    2017-11-01

    The crucial issue of space-based interferometers is the laser interferometric metrology systems to monitor with very high accuracy optical path differences. Although classical high-resolution laser interferometers using a single wavelength are well developed, this type of incremental interferometer has a severe drawback: any interruption of the interferometer signal results in the loss of the zero reference, which requires a new calibration, starting at zero optical path difference. We propose in this paper an absolute metrology system based on multiplewavelength interferometry.

  16. Estimating glomerular filtration rate for the full age spectrum from serum creatinine and cystatin C.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pottel, Hans; Delanaye, Pierre; Schaeffner, Elke; Dubourg, Laurence; Eriksen, Bjørn Odvar; Melsom, Toralf; Lamb, Edmund J; Rule, Andrew D; Turner, Stephen T; Glassock, Richard J; De Souza, Vandréa; Selistre, Luciano; Goffin, Karolien; Pauwels, Steven; Mariat, Christophe; Flamant, Martin; Ebert, Natalie

    2017-03-01

    We recently published and validated the new serum creatinine (Scr)-based full-age-spectrum equation (FAS crea ) for estimating the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) for healthy and kidney-diseased subjects of all ages. The equation was based on the concept of normalized Scr and shows equivalent to superior prediction performance to the currently recommended equations for children, adolescents, adults and older adults. Based on an evaluation of the serum cystatin C (ScysC) distribution, we defined normalization constants for ScysC ( Q cysC  =   0.82 mg/L for ages <70 years and Q cysC  =   0.95 mg/L for ages ≥70 years). By replacing Scr/ Q crea in the FAS crea equation with ScysC/ Q cysC , or with the average of both normalized biomarkers, we obtained new ScysC-based (FAS cysC ) and combined Scr-/ScysC-based FAS equations (FAS combi ). To validate the new FAS cysC and FAS combi we collected data on measured GFR, Scr, ScysC, age, gender, height and weight from 11 different cohorts including n  = 6132 unique white subjects (368 children, aged ≤18 years, 4295 adults and 1469 older adults, aged ≥70 years). In children and adolescents, the new FAS cysC equation showed significantly better performance [percentage of patients within 30% of mGFR (P30) = 86.1%] than the Caucasian Asian Paediatric Adult Cohort equation (P30 = 76.6%; P < 0.0001), or the ScysC-based Schwartz equation (P30 = 68.8%; P < 0.0001) and the FAS combi equation outperformed all equations with P30 = 92.1% (P < 0.0001). In adults, the FAS cysC equation (P30 = 82.6%) performed equally as well as the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation (CKD-EPI cysC ) (P30 = 80.4%) and the FAS combi equation (P30 = 89.9%) was also equal to the combined CKD-EPI equation (P30 = 88.2%). In older adults, FAS cysC was superior (P30 = 88.2%) to CKD-EPI cysC (P30 = 84.4%; P < 0.0001) and the FAS combi equation (P30 = 91

  17. Learning Multiple Band-Pass Filters for Sleep Stage Estimation: Towards Care Support for Aged Persons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takadama, Keiki; Hirose, Kazuyuki; Matsushima, Hiroyasu; Hattori, Kiyohiko; Nakajima, Nobuo

    This paper proposes the sleep stage estimation method that can provide an accurate estimation for each person without connecting any devices to human's body. In particular, our method learns the appropriate multiple band-pass filters to extract the specific wave pattern of heartbeat, which is required to estimate the sleep stage. For an accurate estimation, this paper employs Learning Classifier System (LCS) as the data-mining techniques and extends it to estimate the sleep stage. Extensive experiments on five subjects in mixed health confirm the following implications: (1) the proposed method can provide more accurate sleep stage estimation than the conventional method, and (2) the sleep stage estimation calculated by the proposed method is robust regardless of the physical condition of the subject.

  18. Regional and site-specific absolute humidity data for use in tritium dose calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Etnier, E.L.

    1980-01-01

    Due to the potential variability in average absolute humidity over the continental U.S., and the dependence of atmospheric 3 H specific activity on absolute humidity, availability of regional absolute humidity data is of value in estimating the radiological significance of 3 H releases. Most climatological data are in the form of relative humidity, which must be converted to absolute humidity for dose calculations. Absolute humidity was calculated for 218 points across the U.S., using the 1977 annual summary of U.S. Climatological Data, and is given in a table. Mean regional values are shown on a map. (author)

  19. Factors affecting estimates of size at age and growth in grey triggerfish Balistes capriscus from the northern Gulf of Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allman, R J; Patterson, W F; Fioramonti, C L; Pacicco, A E

    2018-02-01

    Growth zones in dorsal spines of grey triggerfish Balistes capriscus from the northern Gulf of Mexico were utilized to estimate growth and examine factors that may affect estimates of size at age. Age was estimated from dorsal-spine sections of 4687 individuals sampled from U.S. waters during 2003-2013, including both fishery-independent (n = 1312) and fishery-dependent (n = 3375) samples. Ninety-six per cent (n = 4498) of these sections were deemed suitable for ageing; average per cent error between two independent readers was 10·8%. Fork length (L F ) ranged from 65 to 697 mm and age estimates from 0 to 14 years. Both sex and sample source (fishery-independent v. recreational) significantly affected estimated size at age for 2-6 year-old fish. Data were pooled between sources to fit sex-specific von Bertalanffy growth functions. Results for the female model were L ∞  = 387 mm L F , k = 0·52 year -1 and t 0  = 0·01 year, while for males L ∞  = 405 mm L F , k = 0·55 year -1 and t 0  = 0·02 year. These results were significantly different between sexes and indicate clear sexual dimorphism. Thus, growth should be modelled separately by sex when examining population parameters or conducting stock assessment modelling. The positive bias in estimates of size at age computed for recreational v. fishery-independent samples also has clear implications for stock assessment as growth functions computed with fishery-dependent samples would tend to overestimate stock productivity. © 2017 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

  20. Using GC x GC-FID profiles to estimate the age of weathered gasoline samples

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zorzetti, Brianne M.; Harynuk, James J. [University of Alberta, Department of Chemistry, Edmonton, AB (Canada)

    2011-11-15

    Predicting the amount of time that a petroleum mixture has been exposed to weathering effects has applications in areas of environmental and other forensic investigations, such as aiding in determining the cause and intent of a fire. Historically, research on the evaporation rates of hydrocarbon mixtures has focused on forensic oil spill identification and predicting if a fresh sample could be weathered to give an observed composition in an aged sample. Relatively little attention has focused on approaching the problem from the other direction: estimating exposure time based on the observed composition of a weathered sample at a given time and assuming a prior composition. Here, we build upon our previous research into the weathering of model mixtures by extending our work to gasoline. Samples of gasoline with varying octane ratings and from several vendors were weathered under controlled conditions and their composition monitored over time by two-dimensional gas chromatography (GC x GC). A variety of chemometric models were explored, including partial least squares (PLS), nonlinear PLS (PolyPLS) and locally weighted regression (LWR). A hierarchical application of multivariate techniques was able to predict the time for which a sample had been exposed to evaporative weathering. Partial least squares discriminant analysis could predict whether a sample was relatively fresh (<12 h exposure time) or highly weathered (>20 h exposure time). Subsequent regression models for these classes were evaluated for accuracy using the root mean square error of prediction. LWR was the most successful, whereby fresh and highly weathered samples were predicted to within 30 min and 5 h of exposure, respectively. (orig.)

  1. Estimating demographic contributions to effective population size in an age-structured wild population experiencing environmental and demographic stochasticity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trask, Amanda E; Bignal, Eric M; McCracken, Davy I; Piertney, Stuart B; Reid, Jane M

    2017-09-01

    A population's effective size (N e ) is a key parameter that shapes rates of inbreeding and loss of genetic diversity, thereby influencing evolutionary processes and population viability. However, estimating N e , and identifying key demographic mechanisms that underlie the N e to census population size (N) ratio, remains challenging, especially for small populations with overlapping generations and substantial environmental and demographic stochasticity and hence dynamic age-structure. A sophisticated demographic method of estimating N e /N, which uses Fisher's reproductive value to account for dynamic age-structure, has been formulated. However, this method requires detailed individual- and population-level data on sex- and age-specific reproduction and survival, and has rarely been implemented. Here, we use the reproductive value method and detailed demographic data to estimate N e /N for a small and apparently isolated red-billed chough (Pyrrhocorax pyrrhocorax) population of high conservation concern. We additionally calculated two single-sample molecular genetic estimates of N e to corroborate the demographic estimate and examine evidence for unobserved immigration and gene flow. The demographic estimate of N e /N was 0.21, reflecting a high total demographic variance (σ2dg) of 0.71. Females and males made similar overall contributions to σ2dg. However, contributions varied among sex-age classes, with greater contributions from 3 year-old females than males, but greater contributions from ≥5 year-old males than females. The demographic estimate of N e was ~30, suggesting that rates of increase of inbreeding and loss of genetic variation per generation will be relatively high. Molecular genetic estimates of N e computed from linkage disequilibrium and approximate Bayesian computation were approximately 50 and 30, respectively, providing no evidence of substantial unobserved immigration which could bias demographic estimates of N e . Our analyses identify

  2. Absolute pitch--electrophysiological evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnea, A; Granot, R; Pratt, H

    1994-02-01

    People who have the ability to label or to produce notes without any reference are considered to possess Absolute Pitch (AP). Others, who need a reference in order to identify the notes, possess Relative Pitch (RP). The AP ability is assumed to reflect a unique, language-like representation of non-lexical musical notes in memory. The purpose of this study was to examine this assumption by comparing Event Related Potentials (ERP) of musicians with and without AP, to lexical and non-lexical representation of musical material. Subjects were eighteen young adult musicians. Seven were AP and eleven RP. Auditory stimuli, presented through earphones, were piano notes (non-lexical) or a voice saying the note's name (lexical). Visual stimuli, presented on a computer display were note symbols (non-lexical) or letters (lexical). Subjects performed a number of tasks, combining the two modalities (visual and auditory) and stimulus types (lexical and non-lexical), and reaction times (RT), performance accuracy and evoked potentials were recorded. The tasks forced the subjects to transfer mental representations of musical material from one mode to another. Our most important findings were the differences, between groups, in the scalp distribution of P300 amplitudes. We conclude that absolute pitch possessors use the same internal language as relative pitch possessors, when possible, but the distribution of the underlying brain activity is different between AP and RP subjects.

  3. Absolute MR thermometry using nanocarriers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deckers, Roel; Sprinkhuizen, Sara M; Crielaard, Bart J; Ippel, Johannes H; Boelens, Rolf; Bakker, Chris J G; Storm, Gert; Lammers, Twan; Bartels, Lambertus W

    2014-01-01

    Accurate time-resolved temperature mapping is crucial for the safe use of hyperthermia-mediated drug delivery. We here propose a magnetic resonance imaging temperature mapping method in which drug delivery systems serve not only to improve tumor targeting, but also as an accurate and absolute nano-thermometer. This method is based on the temperature-dependent chemical shift difference between water protons and the protons in different groups of drug delivery systems. We show that the chemical shift of the protons in the ethylene oxide group in polyethylene glycol (PEG) is temperature-independent, whereas the proton resonance of water decreases with increasing temperature. The frequency difference between both resonances is linear and does not depend on pH and physiological salt conditions. In addition, we show that the proton resonance of the methyl group in N-(2-hydroxypropyl)-methacrylamide (HPMA) is temperature-independent. Therefore, PEGylated liposomes, polymeric mPEG-b-pHPMAm-Lac2 micelles and HPMA copolymers can provide a temperature-independent reference frequency for absolute magnetic resonance (MR) thermometry. Subsequently, we show that multigradient echo MR imaging with PEGylated liposomes in situ allows accurate, time-resolved temperature mapping. In conclusion, nanocarrier materials may serve as highly versatile tools for tumor-targeted drug delivery, acting not only as hyperthermia-responsive drug delivery systems, but also as accurate and precise nano-thermometers. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. Dental computed tomographic imaging as age estimation: morphological analysis of the third molar of a group of Turkish population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cantekin, Kenan; Sekerci, Ahmet Ercan; Buyuk, Suleyman Kutalmis

    2013-12-01

    Computed tomography (CT) is capable of providing accurate and measurable 3-dimensional images of the third molar. The aims of this study were to analyze the development of the mandibular third molar and its relation to chronological age and to create new reference data for a group of Turkish participants aged 9 to 25 years on the basis of cone-beam CT images. All data were obtained from the patients' records including medical, social, and dental anamnesis and cone-beam CT images of 752 patients. Linear regression analysis was performed to obtain regression formulas for dental age calculation with chronological age and to determine the coefficient of determination (r) for each sex. Statistical analysis showed a strong correlation between age and third-molar development for the males (r2 = 0.80) and the females (r2 = 0.78). Computed tomographic images are clinically useful for accurate and reliable estimation of dental ages of children and youth.

  5. Age estimation using the radiographic visibility of the periodontal ligament in lower third molars in a Portuguese population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sequeira, Catarina-Dourado; Teixeira, Alexandra; Caldas, Inês-Morais; Afonso, Américo; Pérez-Mongiovi, Daniel

    2014-12-01

    The mineralization of third molars has been used repeatedly as a method of forensic age estimation. However, this procedure is of little use beyond age 18, especially to determinate if an individual is older than 21 years of age; thus, the development of new approaches is essential. The visibility of the periodontal ligament has been suggested for this purpose. The aim of this work was to determine the usefulness of this methodology in a Portuguese population. Periodontal ligament visibility was assessed in the lower third molars, using a sample of 487 orthopantomograms, 228 of which belonging to females and 259 to males, from a Portuguese population aged 17 to 31 years. A classification of four stages based on the visual phenomenon of disappearance of the periodontal ligament of fully mineralized third molars was used. For each stage, median, variance, minimal and maximal age were assessed. The relationship between age and stage of periodontal ligament had a statistical significance for both sexes. In this population, stage 3 can be used to state that a male person is over 21 years-old; for females, another marker should be used. This technique can be useful for determining age over 21, particularly in males. Differences between studies are evident, suggesting that specific population standards should be used when applying this technique. Key words:Forensic sciences, forensic odontology, age estimation, third molar, periodontal ligament.

  6. Age- and gender-specific estimates of partnership formation and dissolution rates in the Seattle sex survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Sara J; Hughes, James P; Foxman, Betsy; Aral, Sevgi O; Holmes, King K; White, Peter J; Golden, Matthew R

    2010-04-01

    Partnership formation and dissolution rates are primary determinants of sexually transmitted infection (STI) transmission dynamics. The authors used data on persons' lifetime sexual experiences from a 2003-2004 random digit dialing survey of Seattle residents aged 18-39 years (N=1,194) to estimate age- and gender-specific partnership formation and dissolution rates. Partnership start and end dates were used to estimate participants' ages at the start of each partnership and partnership durations, and partnerships not enumerated in the survey were imputed. Partnership formation peaked at age 19 at 0.9 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.76-1.04) partnerships per year and decreased to 0.1 to 0.2 after age 30 for women and peaked at age 20 at 1.4 (95% CI: 1.08-1.64) and declined to 0.5 after age 30 for men. Nearly one fourth (23.7%) of partnerships ended within 1 week and more than one half (51.2%) ended within 12 weeks. Most (63.5%) individuals 30 to 39 years of age had not formed a new sexual partnership in the past 3 years. A large proportion of the heterosexual population is no longer at substantial STI risk by their early 30s, but similar analyses among high-risk populations may give insight into reasons for the profound disparities in STI rates across populations. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Pulp/tooth ratio of mandibular first and second molars on panoramic radiographs: An aid for forensic age estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Palak H; Venkatesh, Rashmi

    2016-01-01

    To determine and compare the accuracy of pulp/tooth ratio method in mandibular first and second molar teeth in forensic age estimation. A total 300 panoramic radiographs of the Gujarati population (187 males and 113 females) were studied. The measurements of Pulp Chamber Height (PCH) and Crown Root Trunk Height (CRTH) were performed on the mandibular first and second molar teeth. The acquired data was subjected to correlation and regression. The pulp chamber crown root trunk height ratios (PCTHR) of both the first (r = -0.609) and second molars (r = -0.422) were significantly correlated with the age of the individual. Individual regression formulae were derived for both the teeth which were then used separately to calculate the age. The standard errors estimate (SEE) for the first and second molars were 8.84 years and 10.11 years, respectively. There was no statistically significant difference between chronological and calculated age by both the teeth (P = 1.000). The mandibular first and second molar is a potential tool for age estimation in forensic dentistry. The pulp/tooth ratio of both the teeth is a useful method for forensic age prediction with reasonable accuracy in the Gujarati population.

  8. Age estimation by modified Demirjian's method (2004) and its applicability in Tibetan young adults: A digital panoramic study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bijjaragi, Shobha C; Sangle, Varsha A; Saraswathi, F K; Patil, Veerendra S; Ashwini Rani, S R; Bapure, Sunil K

    2015-01-01

    Estimation of the age is a procedure adopted by anthropologists, archeologists and forensic scientists. Different methods have been undertaken. However none of them meet the standards as Demirjian's method since 1973. Various researchers have applied this method, in both original and modified form (Chaillet and Demirjian in 2004) in different ethnic groups and the results obtained were not satisfactory. To determine the applicability and accuracy of modified Demirjian's method of dental age estimation (AE) in 8-18 year old Tibetan young adults to evaluate the interrelationship between dental and chronological age and the reliability between intra- and inter observer relationship. Clinical setting and computerized design. A total of 300 Tibetan young adults with an age range from 8 to 18 years were recruited in the study. Digital panoramic radiographs (DPRs) were evaluated as per the modified Demirjian's method (2004). Pearson correlation, paired t-test, linear regression analysis. Inter -and intraobserver reliability revealed a strong agreement. A positive and strong association was found between chronological age and estimated dental age (r = 0.839) with P young adults. Results suggest that, the modified Demirjian method of AE is not suitable for Tibetan young adults. Further studies: With larger sample size and comparision with different methods of AE in a given population would be an interesting area for future research.

  9. Estimation of fracture toughness of cast stainless steels during thermal aging in LWR systems-revision 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chopra, O.K

    1994-08-01

    This report presents a revision of the procedure and correlations presented earlier in NUREG/CR-4513, ANL-90/42 (June 1991) for predicting the change in mechanical properties of cast stainless steel components due to thermal aging during service in light water reactors at 280-330{degrees}C (535-625{degrees}F). The correlations presented in this report are based on an expanded data base and have been optimized with mechanical-property data on cast stainless steels aged up to {approx}58,000 h at 290-350{degrees}C (554-633{degrees}F). The fracture toughness J-R curve, tensile stress, and Charpy-impact energy of aged cast stainless steels are estimated from known material information. Mechanical properties of a specific cast stainless steel are estimated from the extent and kinetics of thermal embrittlement. Embrittlement of cast stainless steels is characterized in terms of room-temperature Charpy-impact energy. Charpy-impact energy as a function of time and temperature of reactor service is estimated from the kinetics of thermal embrittlement, which are also determined from the chemical composition. The initial impact energy of the unaged steel is required for these estimations. Initial tensile flow stress is needed for estimating the flow stress of the aged material. The fracture toughness J-R curve for the material is then obtained by correlating room-temperature Charpy-impact energy with fracture toughness parameters. The values of J{sub IC} are determined from the estimated J-R curve and flow stress. A common {open_quotes}predicted lower-bound{close_quotes} J-R curve for cast stainless steels of unknown chemical composition is also defined for a given grade of steel, range of ferrite content, and temperature. Examples of estimating mechanical properties of cast stainless steel components during reactor service are presented.

  10. The effect of age on in sacco estimates of rumen dry matter and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study was conducted to determine whether rumen dry matter and crude protein degradability in calves aged 8-10 weeks differs from that in mature cows. Five Holstein bull calves were rumen-fistulated at six weeks of age and were used in consecutive weekly 24 h trials from 8-20 weeks of age. Dry matter and crude ...

  11. A Comparison of the Accuracy of Four Age Estimation Methods Based on Panoramic Radiography of Developing Teeth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahrzad Javadinejad

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Background and aims. Tooth development is widely used in determining age and state of maturity. Dental age is of high importance in forensic and pediatric dentistry and also orthodontic treatment planning .The aim of this study was to com-pare the accuracy of four radiographic age estimation methods. Materials and methods. Orthopantomographic images of 537 healthy children (age: 3.9-14.5 years old were evaluated. Dental age of the subjects was determined through Demirjian’s, Willem’s, Cameriere’s, and Smith’s methods. Differences and correlations between chronological and dental ages were assessed by paired t-tests and Pearson’s correlation analysis, respectively. Results. The mean chronological age of the subjects was 8.93 ± 2.04 years. Overestimations of age were observed follow-ing the use of Demirjian’s method (0.87 ± 1.00 years, Willem’s method (0.36 ± 0.87 years, and Smith’s method (0.06 ± 0.63 years. However, Cameriere’s method underestimated age by 0.19 ± 0.86 years. While paired t-tests revealed signifi-cant differences between the mean chronological age and ages determined by Demirjian’s, Willem’s, and Cameriere’s methods (P < 0.001, such a significant difference was absent between chronological age and dental age based on Smith’s method (P = 0.079. Pearson’s correlation analysis suggested linear correlations between chronological age and dental age determined by all four methods. Conclusion. Our findings indicated Smith’s method to have the highest accuracy among the four assessed methods. How-ever, all four methods can be used with acceptable accuracy.

  12. Estimation of Genetic Parameters for Real-time Ultrasound Measurements for Hanwoo Cows at Different Ages and Pregnancy Status

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. H. Lee

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to estimate genetic parameters of ultrasound measurements for longissimus dorsi muscle area (LMA, backfat thickness (BFT, and marbling score (MS in Hanwoo cows (N = 3,062 at the ages between 18 and 42 months. Data were collected from 100 Hanwoo breeding farms in Gyeongbuk province, Korea, in 2007 and 2008. The cows were classified into four different age groups, i.e. 18 to 22 months (the first pregnancy period, 23 to 27 (the first parturition, 28 to 32 (the second pregnancy, and 33 to 42 (the second parturition, respectively. For each age group, a multi-trait animal model was used to estimate variance components and heritabilities of the three traits. The averages of LMA, BFT, and MS measurements across the cows of all age groups were 50.1 cm2, 4.62 mm, and 3.04, respectively and heritability estimates were 0.09, 0.10, and 0.08 for the respective traits. However, when the data were analyzed in different age groups, heritability estimates of LMA and BFT were 0.24 and 0.47, respectively, for the cows of 18 to 22 months of age, and 0.21 for MS in the 28 to 32 months old cows. When the cows of all age groups were used, the estimates of genetic (phenotypic correlations were 0.43 (0.35, −0.06 (0.34 and 0.21 (0.32 between LMA and BFT, LMA and MS, and BFT and MS, respectively. However, in the cow age group between 28 and 32 (18 and 22 months, the estimates of genetic (phenotypic correlations were 0.05 (0.29, −0.15 (0.24 and 0.38 (0.24, for the respective pairs of traits. These results suggest that genetic, environmental, and phenotypic variations differ depending on cow age, such that care must be taken when ultrasound measurements are applied to selection of cows for meat quality.

  13. "Absolute" sterility and "absolute" freedom from particle contamination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knapp, J Z

    1998-01-01

    Until the recent past, sterility of an injectable product was only discussed in absolute terms. Any description of sterility other than as an absolute could simply not be envisioned. While dealing in absolute yes/no statements is philosophically satisfying, these yes/no statements can't accommodate all real world scientific problems. Among these problems is the sterility problems faced in the mass production of injectable compounds. Many descriptions of procedures employed to achieve sterility in parenteral production batches were reported in the literature. The theoretical framework that could unite the widespread observations and practices into practical methodology was missing until recently. Production line control of the sterility of injectable products was essentially based on gut evaluations. The present achievement of rational, production line control of product sterility is based on the recognition that product sterility could not be simply regarded as a sharply edged yes/no affair. The present rational control is based on the fact that the sterility of a product is determined by the degree of contamination in the product prior to sterilization and to the parameters of the sterilization process. The end result of the sterilization process is now described as a probabalistic reduction of the initial contamination. The essential laboratory measurements on which this conclusion was based is due to Pflug (1-3). He assembled a theoretical framework, based on experimental data, that characterizes the sterility achieved in an injectable product with a single number. The end result of the sterilization process is now described as a probabalistic reduction of the initial contamination. As in many disciplines, the ability to achieve an objective evaluation of this important attribute provided the basis for scientific analysis, improved control and thus improved production and reduced cost. An equivalent framework is essential for the communication and

  14. Age estimation of large trees: New method based on partial increment core tested on an example of veteran oaks

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Altman, Jan; Doležal, Jiří; Čížek, Lukáš

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 380, č. 11 (2016), s. 82-89 ISSN 0378-1127 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA14-12262S; GA ČR GAP504/12/1952 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 ; RVO:60077344 Keywords : Tree age estimation * Dendrochronology * Partial cores Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 3.064, year: 2016

  15. Age estimation by pulp-to-tooth area ratio using cone-beam computed tomography: A preliminary analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rai, Arpita; Acharya, Ashith B.; Naikmasur, Venkatesh G.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Age estimation of living or deceased individuals is an important aspect of forensic sciences. Conventionally, pulp-to-tooth area ratio (PTR) measured from periapical radiographs have been utilized as a nondestructive method of age estimation. Cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) is a new method to acquire three-dimensional images of the teeth in living individuals. Aims: The present study investigated age estimation based on PTR of the maxillary canines measured in three planes obtained from CBCT image data. Settings and Design: Sixty subjects aged 20–85 years were included in the study. Materials and Methods: For each tooth, mid-sagittal, mid-coronal, and three axial sections—cementoenamel junction (CEJ), one-fourth root level from CEJ, and mid-root—were assessed. PTR was calculated using AutoCAD software after outlining the pulp and tooth. Statistical Analysis Used: All statistical analyses were performed using an SPSS 17.0 software program. Results and Conclusions: Linear regression analysis showed that only PTR in axial plane at CEJ had significant age correlation (r = 0.32; P < 0.05). This is probably because of clearer demarcation of pulp and tooth outline at this level. PMID:28123269

  16. A spatio-temporal latent atlas for semi-supervised learning of fetal brain segmentations and morphological age estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dittrich, Eva; Riklin Raviv, Tammy; Kasprian, Gregor; Donner, René; Brugger, Peter C; Prayer, Daniela; Langs, Georg

    2014-01-01

    Prenatal neuroimaging requires reference models that reflect the normal spectrum of fetal brain development, and summarize observations from a representative sample of individuals. Collecting a sufficiently large data set of manually annotated data to construct a comprehensive in vivo atlas of rapidly developing structures is challenging but necessary for large population studies and clinical application. We propose a method for the semi-supervised learning of a spatio-temporal latent atlas of fetal brain development, and corresponding segmentations of emerging cerebral structures, such as the ventricles or cortex. The atlas is based on the annotation of a few examples, and a large number of imaging data without annotation. It models the morphological and developmental variability across the population. Furthermore, it serves as basis for the estimation of a structures' morphological age, and its deviation from the nominal gestational age during the assessment of pathologies. Experimental results covering the gestational period of 20-30 gestational weeks demonstrate segmentation accuracy achievable with minimal annotation, and precision of morphological age estimation. Age estimation results on fetuses suffering from lissencephaly demonstrate that they detect significant differences in the age offset compared to a control group. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  17. Age estimation by pulp-to-tooth area ratio using cone-beam computed tomography: A preliminary analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rai, Arpita; Acharya, Ashith B; Naikmasur, Venkatesh G

    2016-01-01

    Age estimation of living or deceased individuals is an important aspect of forensic sciences. Conventionally, pulp-to-tooth area ratio (PTR) measured from periapical radiographs have been utilized as a nondestructive method of age estimation. Cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) is a new method to acquire three-dimensional images of the teeth in living individuals. The present study investigated age estimation based on PTR of the maxillary canines measured in three planes obtained from CBCT image data. Sixty subjects aged 20-85 years were included in the study. For each tooth, mid-sagittal, mid-coronal, and three axial sections-cementoenamel junction (CEJ), one-fourth root level from CEJ, and mid-root-were assessed. PTR was calculated using AutoCAD software after outlining the pulp and tooth. All statistical analyses were performed using an SPSS 17.0 software program. Linear regression analysis showed that only PTR in axial plane at CEJ had significant age correlation ( r = 0.32; P < 0.05). This is probably because of clearer demarcation of pulp and tooth outline at this level.

  18. Comparison between greulich-pyle and girdany-golden methods for estimating skeletal age of children in pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Awais, M.; Nadeem, N.; Rehman, A.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To compare Greulich-Pyle (GP) and Girdany-Golden (GG) methods for estimation of Skeletal Age (SA) in children referred to a tertiary care hospital in Karachi, Pakistan. Study Design: Cross-sectional study. Place and Duration of Study: Department of Radiology, The Aga Khan University Hospital, Karachi, Pakistan, from July 2010 to June 2012. Methodology: Children up to the age of 18 years, who had undergone X-ray for the evaluation of trauma were included. Each X-ray was interpreted using both methods by two consultant paediatric radiologists having at least 10 years experience, who were blinded to the actual Chronologic Age (CA) of children. Results: A total of 283 children were included. No significant difference was noted in mean SA estimated by GP method and mean CA for female children (p=0.695). However, a significant difference was noted between mean CA and mean SA by GG method for females (p=0.011). For males, there was a significant difference between mean CA and mean SA estimated by both GP and GG methods. A stronger correlation was found between CA and SA estimated by GP method (r=0.943 for girls, r=0.915 for boys) as compared to GG method (r=0.909 for girls, r=0.865 for boys) respectively. Bland- Altman analysis also revealed that the two methods cannot be used interchangeably. Excellent correlation was seen between the two readers for both GP and GG methods. Conclusion: There was no additional benefit of using GP and GG methods simultaneously over using GP method alone. Moreover, although GP was reliable in estimating SA in girls, it was unable to accurately assess SA in boys. Therefore, it would be ideal to develop indigenous standards of bone age estimation based on a representative sample of healthy native children. (author)

  19. Estimating the brain pathological age of Alzheimer’s disease patients from MR image data based on the separability distance criterion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yongming; Li, Fan; Wang, Pin; Zhu, Xueru; Liu, Shujun; Qiu, Mingguo; Zhang, Jingna; Zeng, Xiaoping

    2016-10-01

    Traditional age estimation methods are based on the same idea that uses the real age as the training label. However, these methods ignore that there is a deviation between the real age and the brain age due to accelerated brain aging. This paper considers this deviation and searches for it by maximizing the separability distance value rather than by minimizing the difference between the estimated brain age and the real age. Firstly, set the search range of the deviation as the deviation candidates according to prior knowledge. Secondly, use the support vector regression (SVR) as the age estimation model to minimize the difference between the estimated age and the real age plus deviation rather than the real age itself. Thirdly, design the fitness function based on the separability distance criterion. Fourthly, conduct age estimation on the validation dataset using the trained age estimation model, put the estimated age into the fitness function, and obtain the fitness value of the deviation candidate. Fifthly, repeat the iteration until all the deviation candidates are involved and get the optimal deviation with maximum fitness values. The real age plus the optimal deviation is taken as the brain pathological age. The experimental results showed that the separability was apparently improved. For normal control-Alzheimer’s disease (NC-AD), normal control-mild cognition impairment (NC-MCI), and MCI-AD, the average improvements were 0.178 (35.11%), 0.033 (14.47%), and 0.017 (39.53%), respectively. For NC-MCI-AD, the average improvement was 0.2287 (64.22%). The estimated brain pathological age could be not only more helpful to the classification of AD but also more precisely reflect accelerated brain aging. In conclusion, this paper offers a new method for brain age estimation that can distinguish different states of AD and can better reflect the extent of accelerated aging.

  20. Estimation of the aging grade of T91 steel by laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy coupled with support vector machines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Shengzi; Dong, Meirong; Huang, Jianwei; Li, Wenbing; Lu, Jidong; Li, Jun

    2018-02-01

    T91 steel is a representative martensitic heat-resistant steel widely used in high temperature compression components of industrial equipment. During the service period, the operation safety and the service life of the equipment will be affected by the change of structure and mechanical properties of the steel components, which is called material aging. In order to develop a rapid in-situ aging estimation technology of high temperature compression components surface, laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) coupled with support vector machine (SVM) was employed in this paper. The spectral characteristics of 10 T91 steel specimens with different aging grades were analyzed. Line intensities and the line intensity ratios (ionic/atomic and alloying element/matrix element) that indicate the change of metallographic structure were used to establish SVM models, and the results using different variable sets were compared. The model was optimized by comparing different pulse number for practical effectiveness, and the robustness of the model was investigated in dealing with the inhomogeneity of steel composition. The study results show that the estimation model obtained the best performance using line intensities and line intensity ratios averaged from 31st-60th laser pulses as input variables. The estimation accuracy of validation set was greatly improved from 75.8% to 95.3%. In addition, the model showed the outstanding capacity for handling the fluctuations of spectral signals between measuring-points (spots), which indicated that the aging estimation based on a few measuring-points is feasible. The studies presented here demonstrate that the LIBS coupled with SVM is a new useful technique for the aging estimation of steel, and would be well-suited for fast safety assessment in industrial field.

  1. Age

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Resources About Policymakers Media ASA Member Toolkit Risks Age Explore this page: Age Do anesthesia risks increase ... can you reduce anesthesia risks in older patients? Age Age may bring wisdom but it also brings ...

  2. Age estimation of blood stains by hemoglobin derivative determination using reflectance spectroscopy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bremmer, Rolf H.; Nadort, Annemarie; van Leeuwen, Ton G.; van Gemert, Martin J. C.; Aalders, Maurice C. G.

    2011-01-01

    Blood stains can be crucial in reconstructing crime events. However, no reliable methods are currently available to establish the age of a blood stain on the crime scene. We show that determining the fractions of three hemoglobin derivatives in a blood stain at various ages enables relating these

  3. Challenging ICES age estimation protocols: lessons learned from the eastern Baltic cod stock

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hüssy, Karin; Radtke, Krzysztof; Plikshs, Maris

    2016-01-01

    -validation is urgently needed. Deviations from the ICES guidelines identified are as follows: (i) the lack of rigorous quality control, particularly the auditing of national trends in age precision over the years using a reference collection and (ii) the implementation of an age error matrix in the stock assessment...

  4. Normative perceptual estimates for 91 healthy subjects age 60-75: impact of age, education, employment, physical exercise, alcohol, and video gaming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilms, Inge L; Nielsen, Simon

    2014-01-01

    Visual perception serves as the basis for much of the higher level cognitive processing as well as human activity in general. Here we present normative estimates for the following components of visual perception: the visual perceptual threshold, the visual short-term memory (VSTM) capacity and the visual perceptual encoding/decoding speed (processing speed) of VSTM based on an assessment of 91 healthy subjects aged 60-75. The estimates were modeled from input from a whole-report assessment based on a theory of visual attention. In addition to the estimates themselves, we present correlational data, and multiple regression analyses between the estimates and self-reported demographic data and lifestyle variables. The regression statistics suggest that education level, video gaming activity, and employment status may significantly impact the encoding/decoding speed of VTSM but not the capacity of VSTM nor the visual perceptual threshold. The estimates will be useful for future studies into the effects of various types of intervention and training on cognition in general and visual attention in particular.

  5. Normative perceptual estimates for 91 healthy subjects age 60–75: impact of age, education, employment, physical exercise, alcohol, and video gaming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilms, Inge L.; Nielsen, Simon

    2014-01-01

    Visual perception serves as the basis for much of the higher level cognitive processing as well as human activity in general. Here we present normative estimates for the following components of visual perception: the visual perceptual threshold, the visual short-term memory (VSTM) capacity and the visual perceptual encoding/decoding speed (processing speed) of VSTM based on an assessment of 91 healthy subjects aged 60–75. The estimates were modeled from input from a whole-report assessment based on a theory of visual attention. In addition to the estimates themselves, we present correlational data, and multiple regression analyses between the estimates and self-reported demographic data and lifestyle variables. The regression statistics suggest that education level, video gaming activity, and employment status may significantly impact the encoding/decoding speed of VTSM but not the capacity of VSTM nor the visual perceptual threshold. The estimates will be useful for future studies into the effects of various types of intervention and training on cognition in general and visual attention in particular. PMID:25339932

  6. Normative perceptual estimates for 91 healthy subjects age 60-75: Impact of age, education, employment, physical exercise, alcohol and video gaming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inge Linda Wilms

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Visual perception serves as the basis for much of the higher level cognitive processing as well as human activity in general. Here we present normative estimates for the following components of visual perception: the visual perceptual threshold, the visual short-term memory capacity and the visual perceptual encoding/decoding speed (processing speed of Visual Short-Term Memory (VSTM based on an assessment of 91 healthy subjects aged 60-75. The estimates were modelled from input from a whole-report assessment based on A Theory of Visual Attention (TVA. In addition to the estimates themselves, we present correlational data, and multiple regression analyses between the estimates and self-reported demographic data and lifestyle variables. The regression statistics suggest that education level, video gaming activity and employment status may significantly impact the encoding/decoding speed of VTSM but not the capacity of VSTM nor the visual perceptual threshold. The estimates will be useful for future studies into the effects of various types of intervention and training on cognition in general and visual attention in particular.

  7. 20 CFR 404.1205 - Absolute coverage groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Absolute coverage groups. 404.1205 Section 404.1205 Employees' Benefits SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION FEDERAL OLD-AGE, SURVIVORS AND DISABILITY...) Employees of a State's political subdivision performing services in connection with that subdivision's...

  8. Age-distribution estimation for karst groundwater: Issues of parameterization and complexity in inverse modeling by convolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Andrew J.; Putnam, L.D.

    2009-01-01

    Convolution modeling is useful for investigating the temporal distribution of groundwater age based on environmental tracers. The framework of a quasi-transient convolution model that is applicable to two-domain flow in karst aquifers is presented. The model was designed to provide an acceptable level of statistical confidence in parameter estimates when only chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) and tritium (3H) data are available. We show how inverse modeling and uncertainty assessment can be used to constrain model parameterization to a level warranted by available data while allowing major aspects of the flow system to be examined. As an example, the model was applied to water from a pumped well open to the Madison aquifer in central USA with input functions of CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113, and 3H, and was calibrated to several samples collected during a 16-year period. A bimodal age distribution was modeled to represent quick and slow flow less than 50 years old. The effects of pumping and hydraulic head on the relative volumetric fractions of these domains were found to be influential factors for transient flow. Quick flow and slow flow were estimated to be distributed mainly within the age ranges of 0-2 and 26-41 years, respectively. The fraction of long-term flow (>50 years) was estimated but was not dateable. The different tracers had different degrees of influence on parameter estimation and uncertainty assessments, where 3H was the most critical, and CFC-113 was least influential.

  9. Absolute marine gravimetry with matter-wave interferometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bidel, Y; Zahzam, N; Blanchard, C; Bonnin, A; Cadoret, M; Bresson, A; Rouxel, D; Lequentrec-Lalancette, M F

    2018-02-12

    Measuring gravity from an aircraft or a ship is essential in geodesy, geophysics, mineral and hydrocarbon exploration, and navigation. Today, only relative sensors are available for onboard gravimetry. This is a major drawback because of the calibration and drift estimation procedures which lead to important operational constraints. Atom interferometry is a promising technology to obtain onboard absolute gravimeter. But, despite high performances obtained in static condition, no precise measurements were reported in dynamic. Here, we present absolute gravity measurements from a ship with a sensor based on atom interferometry. Despite rough sea conditions, we obtained precision below 10 -5  m s -2 . The atom gravimeter was also compared with a commercial spring gravimeter and showed better performances. This demonstration opens the way to the next generation of inertial sensors (accelerometer, gyroscope) based on atom interferometry which should provide high-precision absolute measurements from a moving platform.

  10. The chronology of second molar development in Brazilians and its application to forensic age estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Almeida, Manuella; Santos Carneiro; Beltraeo, Rejane Targino; Beltraeo, Ricardo Villar; Pontual, Andrea dos Anjos; Pontual, Maria Luiza dos Anjos

    2013-01-01

    This study investigated the possible correlation between the mineralization of the second molars and the chronological age of a sample population of the state of Paraiba, Brazil. One thousand eight hundred fifty-four digitized panoramic images using a scanner of a private dental radiology service were obtained in six months. Of these, 457 were selected from patients aged 4.6 to 16 years who met certain criteria. The images were assessed twice by a radiologist with 5 years experience. A minimum interval of 30 days between the evaluations of the same patient was established. To analyze the relationship between chronological age, calcification level proposed by Demirjian et al in 1973, gender, and tooth, a multiple linear regression model was adjusted, taking age as the response variable (p<0.05). The gender and calcification level were significantly correlated with the age of the patients (p<0.05). There was a significant difference between the average age of the patients' upper teeth compared to the lower ones in both genders (p<0.05). The dental development occurred earlier in female individuals than in male ones, and there was no significant difference between the right and left second permanent molars. It was observed that ethnic variables are related to certain parameters of age and sex identification in the Brazilian population, providing important information for forensic evaluations.

  11. Evaluation of the absolute regional temperature potential

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. T. Shindell

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The Absolute Regional Temperature Potential (ARTP is one of the few climate metrics that provides estimates of impacts at a sub-global scale. The ARTP presented here gives the time-dependent temperature response in four latitude bands (90–28° S, 28° S–28° N, 28–60° N and 60–90° N as a function of emissions based on the forcing in those bands caused by the emissions. It is based on a large set of simulations performed with a single atmosphere-ocean climate model to derive regional forcing/response relationships. Here I evaluate the robustness of those relationships using the forcing/response portion of the ARTP to estimate regional temperature responses to the historic aerosol forcing in three independent climate models. These ARTP results are in good accord with the actual responses in those models. Nearly all ARTP estimates fall within ±20% of the actual responses, though there are some exceptions for 90–28° S and the Arctic, and in the latter the ARTP may vary with forcing agent. However, for the tropics and the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes in particular, the ±20% range appears to be roughly consistent with the 95% confidence interval. Land areas within these two bands respond 39–45% and 9–39% more than the latitude band as a whole. The ARTP, presented here in a slightly revised form, thus appears to provide a relatively robust estimate for the responses of large-scale latitude bands and land areas within those bands to inhomogeneous radiative forcing and thus potentially to emissions as well. Hence this metric could allow rapid evaluation of the effects of emissions policies at a finer scale than global metrics without requiring use of a full climate model.

  12. Neural sensitivity to absolute and relative anticipated reward in adolescents.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jatin G Vaidya

    Full Text Available Adolescence is associated with a dramatic increase in risky and impulsive behaviors that have been attributed to developmental differences in neural processing of rewards. In the present study, we sought to identify age differences in anticipation of absolute and relative rewards. To do so, we modified a commonly used monetary incentive delay (MID task in order to examine brain activity to relative anticipated reward value (neural sensitivity to the value of a reward as a function of other available rewards. This design also made it possible to examine developmental differences in brain activation to absolute anticipated reward magnitude (the degree to which neural activity increases with increasing reward magnitude. While undergoing fMRI, 18 adolescents and 18 adult participants were presented with cues associated with different reward magnitudes. After the cue, participants responded to a target to win money on that trial. Presentation of cues was blocked such that two reward cues associated with $.20, $1.00, or $5.00 were in play on a given block. Thus, the relative value of the $1.00 reward varied depending on whether it was paired with a smaller or larger reward. Reflecting age differences in neural responses to relative anticipated reward (i.e., reference dependent processing, adults, but not adolescents, demonstrated greater activity to a $1 reward when it was the larger of the two available rewards. Adults also demonstrated a more linear increase in ventral striatal activity as a function of increasing absolute reward magnitude compared to adolescents. Additionally, reduced ventral striatal sensitivity to absolute anticipated reward (i.e., the difference in activity to medium versus small rewards correlated with higher levels of trait Impulsivity. Thus, ventral striatal activity in anticipation of absolute and relative rewards develops with age. Absolute reward processing is also linked to individual differences in Impulsivity.

  13. Improved estimates of age, growth and reproduction for the regionally endemic Galapagos sailfin grouper Mycteroperca olfax (Jenyns, 1840).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Usseglio, Paolo; Friedlander, Alan M; DeMartini, Edward E; Schuhbauer, Anna; Schemmel, Eva; Salinas de Léon, Pelayo

    2015-01-01

    The Galapagos Sailfin grouper, Mycteroperca olfax, locally known as bacalao and listed as vulnerable by the IUCN, is culturally, economically, and ecologically important to the Galapagos archipelago and its people. It is regionally endemic to the Eastern Tropical Pacific, and, while an important fishery resource that has shown substantial declines in recent years, to date no effective management regulations are in place to ensure the sustainability of the Galapagos fishery for this species. Previous estimates of longevity and size at maturity for bacalao are inconsistent with estimates for congeners, which brings into question the accuracy of prior estimates. We set out to assess the age, growth, and reproductive biology of bacalao in order to provide more accurate life history information to inform more effective fisheries management for this species. The oldest fish in our sample was 21 years old, which is 2-3 times greater than previously reported estimates of longevity. Parameter estimates for the von Bertalanffy growth function (k = 0.11, L ∞ = 110 cm TL, and to = - 1.7 years) show bacalao to grow much slower and attain substantially larger asymptotic maximum length than previous studies. Mean size at maturity (as female) was estimated at 65.3 cm TL, corresponding to a mean age of 6.5 years. We found that sex ratios were extremely female biased (0.009 M:1F), with a large majority of the individuals in our experimental catch being immature (79%). Our results show that bacalao grow slower, live longer, and mature at a much larger size and greater age than previously thought, with very few mature males in the population. These findings have important implications for the fishery of this valuable species and provide the impetus for a long-overdue species management plan to ensure its long-term sustainability.

  14. Improved estimates of age, growth and reproduction for the regionally endemic Galapagos sailfin grouper Mycteroperca olfax (Jenyns, 1840

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paolo Usseglio

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The Galapagos Sailfin grouper, Mycteroperca olfax, locally known as bacalao and listed as vulnerable by the IUCN, is culturally, economically, and ecologically important to the Galapagos archipelago and its people. It is regionally endemic to the Eastern Tropical Pacific, and, while an important fishery resource that has shown substantial declines in recent years, to date no effective management regulations are in place to ensure the sustainability of the Galapagos fishery for this species. Previous estimates of longevity and size at maturity for bacalao are inconsistent with estimates for congeners, which brings into question the accuracy of prior estimates. We set out to assess the age, growth, and reproductive biology of bacalao in order to provide more accurate life history information to inform more effective fisheries management for this species. The oldest fish in our sample was 21 years old, which is 2–3 times greater than previously reported estimates of longevity. Parameter estimates for the von Bertalanffy growth function (k = 0.11, L∞ = 110 cm TL, and to = − 1.7 years show bacalao to grow much slower and attain substantially larger asymptotic maximum length than previous studies. Mean size at maturity (as female was estimated at 65.3 cm TL, corresponding to a mean age of 6.5 years. We found that sex ratios were extremely female biased (0.009 M:1F, with a large majority of the individuals in our experimental catch being immature (79%. Our results show that bacalao grow slower, live longer, and mature at a much larger size and greater age than previously thought, with very few mature males in the population. These findings have important implications for the fishery of this valuable species and provide the impetus for a long-overdue species management plan to ensure its long-term sustainability.

  15. Orthopantomographic evaluation of canine and first premolar using Demirjian's stages in central India: new approach to forensic age estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pathak, Hrishikesh V; Dixit, Pradeep; Shrigiriwar, Manish; Bardale, Rajesh

    2012-07-01

    Teeth development is widely used for age estimation in forensic science. The aims of this study were as follows: first, to establish Indian data on canine and first premolar development for age estimation and second, to investigate population differences in teeth development. Orthopantomograms of 340 Indian children aged between 5 and 14 years were analyzed. Demirjian's stages were recorded for the developmental evaluation of canine and first premolar and for further descriptive statistical analysis. A two-way ANOVA was performed to test the significance of difference in teeth development by sex and stage. A one-way ANOVA was performed to investigate population differences in teeth development. Results showed statistically significant differences in teeth development by sex and stage. Accordingly, teeth development was earlier in girls. No statistically significant differences were observed in timings of Demirjian's stages among different populations. In conclusion, the findings of this study could be used for age estimation of Indian children. © 2012 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  16. Apophyseal Ossification of the Iliac Crest in Forensic Age Estimation: Computed Tomography Standards for Modern Australian Subadults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lottering, Nicolene; Alston-Knox, Clair L; MacGregor, Donna M; Izatt, Maree T; Grant, Caroline A; Adam, Clayton J; Gregory, Laura S

    2017-03-01

    This study contrasts the ontogeny of the iliac crest apophysis using conventional radiography and multislice computed tomography (MSCT), providing probabilistic information for age estimation of modern Australian subadults. Retrospective abdominopelvic MSCT data acquired from 524 Australian individuals aged 7-25 and surveillance radiographs of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis patients included in the Paediatric Spine Research Group Progression Study (n = 531) were assessed. Ossification scoring of pseudo-radiographs and three-dimensional (3D) volume-rendered reconstructions using Risser (1958) quantitative descriptors indicate discrepancies in age estimates, stage allocation, and conflicting morphological progression. To mitigate visualization limitations associated with two-dimensional radiographs, we provide and validate a modified 3D-MSCT scoring tier of ossification, demonstrating complete fusion between 17.3-19.2 and 17.1-20.1 years in males and females. Legal demarcation for doli incapax presumption and age of majority (18 years) can be achieved using probability estimates from a fitted cumulative probit model for apophyseal fusion using the recalibrated standards. © 2016 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  17. High accuracy absolute distance metrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swinkels, Bas L.; Bhattacharya, Nandini; Verlaan, Ad L.; Braat, Joseph J. M.

    2017-11-01

    One of ESA's future missions is the Darwin Space Interferometer, which aims to detect planets around nearby stars using optical aperture synthesis with free-flying telescopes. Since this involves interfering white (infra-red) light over large distances, the mission is not possible without a complex metrology system that monitors various speeds, distances and angles between the satellites. One of its sub-systems should measure absolute distances with an accuracy of around 70 micrometer over distances up to 250 meter. To enable such measurements, we are investigating a technique called frequency sweeping interferometry, in which a single laser is swept over a large known frequency range. Central to our approach is the use of a very stable, high finesse Fabry-Ṕerot cavity, to which the laser is stabilized at the endpoints of the frequency sweep. We will discuss the optical set-up, the control system that controls the fast sweeping, the calibration and the data analysis. We tested the system using long fibers and achieved a repeatability of 50 micrometers at a distance of 55 meters. We conclude with some recommendations for further improvements and the adaption for use in space.

  18. The comparison of absolute dating (Radiocarbon dating) and relative dating of Pringapus and Gondosuli temples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faisal, W; Arumbinang, H; Taftazani, A; Widayati, S; Sumiyatno; Suhardi

    1996-01-01

    The absolute dating (radiocarbon, 14 C dating) and relative dating of Pringapus and Gondosuli temples in Temanggung regency (district) of Central Java Province have been carried out. The field sampling was done especially with the purpose to obtain vertical data, so that excavation method was adopted in the case. The main data were the ecofacts of organic habitation such as bones, woods, charcoals, shells, and paper artefacts. The artefacts data were used as a comparison. The comparative data analysis were conducted at Yogyakarta archaeological Department Laboratory, thus included dating of artefacts which were performed according to archaeological analysis procedures, generally based on the attributes attached to the artefacts, whereas the absolute dating of charcoal samples were performed in the Radiocarbon Dating Laboratory at Yogyakarta Nuclear Research Centre. Based on the relative dating of epigraphy content on the andesit rock from Gondosuli Temple which showed the year of 754 Saka or 832 AD, the Pringapus Temple was estimated to be built in the 850 AD. According to the absolute dating (Radiocarbon Dating with delta 13 C and tree ring corrections) the age for Gondosuli temple based on GDS/LU-2/Spit-7 samples is (384 -602) AD and from GDS/LU-2/Spit-8 = (452 - 652) AD. With these significant differences in the results obtained, it can be concluded that culture environment where the sample were collected already existed before the temple was built. Further investigation is still required

  19. A spatial- and age-structured assessment model to estimate the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    , thereby indirectly negatively impacting juvenile abalone which rely on the urchins for shelter. A model is developed for abalone that is an extension of more standard age-structured assessment models because it explicitly takes spatial effects ...

  20. Mammography Prevalence within 2 Two Years (Age 40+) - Small Area Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    For mammography, a woman 40 years of age or older must have reported having at least one mammography in her life. Furthermore, she should have had the most recent one within the last two years by the time of interview.

  1. Impact Analysis of Age on Fallout Fatality Estimations for IND Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-11-30

    the detonation and in the path of the fallout. The health effects resulting from an absorbed radiation dose depend on age, gender , comorbidities, and...such as age, gender , genetic differences and comorbidities. Each of these factors contributes to individual susceptibility to nuclear weapon...fatalities per scenario, equal -sized grid blocks comprising the interior of the hazard region were identified using the LandScan USA population

  2. Age- and sex-tailored serum phosphate thresholds do not improve cardiovascular risk estimation in CKD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferraro, Pietro Manuel; Bonello, Monica; Gambaro, Alessia; Sturniolo, Antonio; Gambaro, Giovanni

    2011-01-01

    Disordered metabolism of phosphorus is one of the hallmarks of chronic kidney disease (CKD), resulting in increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Age and sex may affect the metabolism of phosphorus and subsequently its serum level. We evaluated if age- and sex-specific cutoffs for hyperphosphatemia may define cardiovascular risk better than the current guideline cutoffs. We used data from 16,834 subjects participating in the 1999-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES); the prevalence of self-reported cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality rates were analyzed in CKD patients for both the classic definitions (CH; i.e., NKF-KDOQI and K-DIGO) and a tailored definition (TH) of hyperphosphatemia by means of regression models adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, smoking status and body mass index. The cutoffs for TH were represented by the 95th percentile of an age- and sex-matched non-CKD population. Serum phosphorus levels showed an inverse correlation with age (r = -0.12; pdefinition and CVD was marginally better compared with the CH definition (odds ratio [OR] = 1.49, 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.04-2.13; p=0.030 vs. OR=1.55, 95% CI, 0.98-2.44; p = 0.059), the TH model was not superior in predicting CVD or mortality. Our data suggest that a tailored, age- and sex-specific definition of hyperphosphatemia is not superior to conventional definitions in predicting cardiovascular events in patients with CKD.

  3. The application of information theory for the estimation of old-age multimorbidity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blokh, David; Stambler, Ilia; Lubart, Emilia; Mizrahi, Eliyahu H

    2017-12-01

    Elderly patients are commonly characterized by the presence of several chronic aging-related diseases at once, or old-age "multimorbidity," with critical implications for diagnosis and therapy. However, at the present there is no agreed or formal method to diagnose or even define "multimorbidity." There is also no formal quantitative method to evaluate the effects of individual or combined diagnostic parameters and therapeutic interventions on multimorbidity. The present work outlines a methodology to provide such a measurement and definition, using information theoretical measure of normalized mutual information. A cohort of geriatric patients, suffering from several age-related diseases (multimorbidity), including ischemic heart disease, COPD, and dementia, were evaluated by a variety of diagnostic parameters, including static as well as dynamic biochemical, functional-behavioral, immunological, and hematological parameters. Multimorbidity was formally coded and measured as a composite of several chronic age-related diseases. The normalized mutual information allowed establishing the exact informative value of particular parameters and their combinations about the multimorbidity value. With the currently intensifying attempts to reduce aging-related multimorbidity by therapeutic interventions into its underlying aging processes, the proposed method may outline a valuable direction toward the formal indication and evidence-based evaluation of effectiveness of such interventions.

  4. THE ESTIMATION OF STAR FORMATION RATES AND STELLAR POPULATION AGES OF HIGH-REDSHIFT GALAXIES FROM BROADBAND PHOTOMETRY

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Seong-Kook; Ferguson, Henry C.; Somerville, Rachel S.; Wiklind, Tommy; Giavalisco, Mauro

    2010-01-01

    We explore methods to improve the estimates of star formation rates and mean stellar population ages from broadband photometry of high-redshift star-forming galaxies. We use synthetic spectral templates with a variety of simple parametric star formation histories to fit broadband spectral energy distributions. These parametric models are used to infer ages, star formation rates, and stellar masses for a mock data set drawn from a hierarchical semi-analytic model of galaxy evolution. Traditional parametric models generally assume an exponentially declining rate of star formation after an initial instantaneous rise. Our results show that star formation histories with a much more gradual rise in the star formation rate are likely to be better templates, and are likely to give better overall estimates of the age distribution and star formation rate distribution of Lyman break galaxies (LBGs). For B- and V-dropouts, we find the best simple parametric model to be one where the star formation rate increases linearly with time. The exponentially declining model overpredicts the age by 100% and 120% for B- and V-dropouts, on average, while for a linearly increasing model, the age is overpredicted by 9% and 16%, respectively. Similarly, the exponential model underpredicts star formation rates by 56% and 60%, while the linearly increasing model underpredicts by 15% and 22%, respectively. For U-dropouts, the models where the star formation rate has a peak (near z ∼ 3) provide the best match for age-overprediction is reduced from 110% to 26%-and star formation rate-underprediction is reduced from 58% to 22%. We classify different types of star formation histories in the semi-analytic models and show how the biases behave for the different classes. We also provide two-band calibration formulae for stellar mass and star formation rate estimations.

  5. INCREASING THE ACCURACY OF MAYFIELD ESTIMATES USING KNOWLEDGE OF NEST AGE

    Science.gov (United States)

    This presentation will focus on the error introduced in nest-survival modeling when nest-cycles are assumed to be of constant length. I will present the types of error that may occur, including biases resulting from incorrect estimates of expected values, as well as biases that o...

  6. Geostatistical model-based estimates of schistosomiasis prevalence among individuals aged = 20 years in West Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schur, Nadine; Hürlimann, Eveline; Garba, Amadou

    2011-01-01

    Schistosomiasis is a water-based disease that is believed to affect over 200 million people with an estimated 97% of the infections concentrated in Africa. However, these statistics are largely based on population re-adjusted data originally published by Utroska and colleagues more than 20 years...

  7. Estimation of genetic parameters for body weight at different ages in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The objective of the present study is to estimate genetic parameters of birth weight (BW, n = 3005), weaning weight (WW, n = 2800), 6 months weight (6 MW, n = 2600), 9 months weight (9 MW, n = 1990) and yearling weight (YW, n = 1450) of Mehraban sheep, collected during 1995 - 2007 at Mehraban sheep Breeding ...

  8. Estimating age at death from an archaeological bone sample – a preliminary study based on comparison of histomorphometric methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mnich Barbara

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The estimation of age at death is one of the most fundamental biological parameters, determined on skeletal remains in anthropological context. That is why, there is a constant need to improve applied methods. Histomorphometry, which uses microscopic analysis of bone tissue is suggested to be one alternative method. In general, this technique is based on measurements and the determination of the number and density of basic bone structural units, osteons. Osteon density is found to be related with age of the individual. The main goal of this research was to compare results of determined age at death, on the basis of ribs histology, comes from methods proposed by different authors. We analyzed ground cross sections of ribs from archeological origin. The presented methodology is simple in use and effective. Four different methods were tested (Stout and Paine 1992; Cho et al. 2002; Kim et al. 2007; Bednarek et al. 2009. The obtained age results were compared with each other as well as related to the age estimated by standard macroscopic method used in anthropology. Bednarek’s method is recognized to be the most supportive for anthropological analyzes. Methodological issues connected with grinding methodology and results interpretation are also presented. Hypothesis about interpopulation as well as histological and dimorphic differences were confirmed.

  9. A new approach for the analysis of facial growth and age estimation: Iris ratio.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machado, Carlos Eduardo Palhares; Flores, Marta Regina Pinheiro; Lima, Laíse Nascimento Correia; Tinoco, Rachel Lima Ribeiro; Franco, Ademir; Bezerra, Ana Cristina Barreto; Evison, Martin Paul; Guimarães, Marco Aurélio

    2017-01-01

    The study of facial growth is explored in many fields of science, including anatomy, genetics, and forensics. In the field of forensics, it acts as a valuable tool for combating child pornography. The present research proposes a new method, based on relative measurements and fixed references of the human face-specifically considering measurements of the diameter of the iris (iris ratio)-for the analysis of facial growth in association with age in children and sub-adults. The experimental sample consisted of digital photographs of 1000 Brazilian subjects, aged between 6 and 22 years, distributed equally by sex and divided into five specific age groups (6, 10, 14, 18, and 22 year olds ± one month). The software package SAFF-2D® (Forensic Facial Analysis System, Brazilian Federal Police, Brazil) was used for positioning 11 landmarks on the images. Ten measurements were calculated and used as fixed references to evaluate the growth of the other measurements for each age group, as well the accumulated growth (6-22 years old). The Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) was applied for the evaluation of intra-examiner and inter-examiner reliability within a specific set of images. Pearson's Correlation Coefficient was used to assess the association between each measurement taken and the respective age groups. ANOVA and Post-hoc Tukey tests were used to search for statistical differences between the age groups. The outcomes indicated that facial structures grow with different timing in children and adolescents. Moreover, the growth allometry expressed in this study may be used to understand what structures have more or less proportional variation in function for the age ranges studied. The diameter of the iris was found to be the most stable measurement compared to the others and represented the best cephalometric measurement as a fixed reference for facial growth ratios (or indices). The method described shows promising potential for forensic applications, especially

  10. A new approach for the analysis of facial growth and age estimation: Iris ratio.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Eduardo Palhares Machado

    Full Text Available The study of facial growth is explored in many fields of science, including anatomy, genetics, and forensics. In the field of forensics, it acts as a valuable tool for combating child pornography. The present research proposes a new method, based on relative measurements and fixed references of the human face-specifically considering measurements of the diameter of the iris (iris ratio-for the analysis of facial growth in association with age in children and sub-adults. The experimental sample consisted of digital photographs of 1000 Brazilian subjects, aged between 6 and 22 years, distributed equally by sex and divided into five specific age groups (6, 10, 14, 18, and 22 year olds ± one month. The software package SAFF-2D® (Forensic Facial Analysis System, Brazilian Federal Police, Brazil was used for positioning 11 landmarks on the images. Ten measurements were calculated and used as fixed references to evaluate the growth of the other measurements for each age group, as well the accumulated growth (6-22 years old. The Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC was applied for the evaluation of intra-examiner and inter-examiner reliability within a specific set of images. Pearson's Correlation Coefficient was used to assess the association between each measurement taken and the respective age groups. ANOVA and Post-hoc Tukey tests were used to search for statistical differences between the age groups. The outcomes indicated that facial structures grow with different timing in children and adolescents. Moreover, the growth allometry expressed in this study may be used to understand what structures have more or less proportional variation in function for the age ranges studied. The diameter of the iris was found to be the most stable measurement compared to the others and represented the best cephalometric measurement as a fixed reference for facial growth ratios (or indices. The method described shows promising potential for forensic

  11. Mineralogy of the fraction and age estimation rubidium - strontium of the Bambui Group, MG, Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonhomme, M.G.

    1976-01-01

    A study of the illite crystallinity of sediments of the Upper Precambrian Bambui Group, MG, has been done to determine the zones without metamorphism, the only ones able to give the age of the sedimentation. Only the region of Januaria escaped from any sensible thermo-tectonic event. The Bambui sediments contain well crystallized vermiculite probably formed during the anchimetamorphism. The rubidium-strontium age obtained in Januaria (619 + - 17 m.y.) corresponds in fact to the main phase of the Brazilian orogenic cycle. The late isotopic homogeneization was caused by a strong late diagenesis. The anchimetamorphic phosphateous sediments in Cedro do Abate show that the ferro-magnesian illite is a more easely open system than aluminous illite, and in this case dates the later event of the Brazilian cycle at 445 + - 25 m.y. The age of 600 m.y. for the metamorphism is a younger limit for the real age of the Bambui, the late Precambrian age of which is confirmed

  12. Smoking-attributable medical expenditures by age, sex, and smoking status estimated using a relative risk approach☆

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maciosek, Michael V.; Xu, Xin; Butani, Amy L.; Pechacek, Terry F.

    2015-01-01

    Objective To accurately assess the benefits of tobacco control interventions and to better inform decision makers, knowledge of medical expenditures by age, gender, and smoking status is essential. Method We propose an approach to distribute smoking-attributable expenditures by age, gender, and cigarette smoking status to reflect the known risks of smoking. We distribute hospitalization days for smoking-attributable diseases according to relative risks of smoking-attributable mortality, and use the method to determine national estimates of smoking-attributable expenditures by age, sex, and cigarette smoking status. Sensitivity analyses explored assumptions of the method. Results Both current and former smokers ages 75 and over have about 12 times the smoking-attributable expenditures of their current and former smoker counterparts 35–54 years of age. Within each age group, the expenditures of formers smokers are about 70% lower than current smokers. In sensitivity analysis, these results were not robust to large changes to the relative risks of smoking-attributable mortality which were used in the calculations. Conclusion Sex- and age-group-specific smoking expenditures reflect observed disease risk differences between current and former cigarette smokers and indicate that about 70% of current smokers’ excess medical care costs is preventable by quitting. PMID:26051203

  13. Estimated exposures to perfluorinated compounds in infancy predict attenuated vaccine antibody concentrations at age 5-years

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grandjean, Philippe; Heilmann, Carsten; Weihe, Pal

    2017-01-01

    . As outcomes, serum concentrations of antibodies against tetanus and diphtheria vaccines were determined at age 5. Data from a previous cohort born eight years earlier were available for pooled analyses. Pre-natal exposure showed inverse associations with the antibody concentrations five years later...... showed the strongest inverse associations with antibody concentrations at age 5 years, particularly for tetanus. Joint analyses showed statistically significant decreases in tetanus antibody concentrations by 19-29% at age 5 for each doubling of the PFAS exposure in early infancy. These findings support...... the notion that the developing adaptive immune system is particularly vulnerable to immunotoxicity during infancy. This vulnerability appears to be the greatest during the first 6 months after birth, where PFAS exposures are affected by breast-feeding....

  14. Challenges in the Estimation of the Annual Risk of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection in Children Aged Less Than 5 Years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, P Y; Glynn, Judith R; Mzembe, T; Mulawa, D; Chiumya, R; Crampin, Amelia C; Kranzer, Katharina; Fielding, Katherine L

    2017-10-15

    Accurate estimates of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection in young children provide a critical indicator of ongoing community transmission of M. tuberculosis. Cross-reactions due to infection with environmental mycobacteria and/or bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination compromise the estimates derived from population-level tuberculin skin-test surveys using traditional cutoff methods. Newer statistical approaches are prone to failure of model convergence, especially in settings where the prevalence of M. tuberculosis infection is low and environmental sensitization is high. We conducted a tuberculin skin-test survey in 5,119 preschool children in the general population and among household contacts of tuberculosis cases in 2012-2014 in a district in northern Malawi where sensitization to environmental mycobacteria is common and almost all children are BCG-vaccinated. We compared different proposed methods of estimating M. tuberculosis prevalence, including a method described by Rust and Thomas more than 40 years ago. With the different methods, estimated prevalence in the general population was 0.7%-11.5% at ages <2 years and 0.8%-3.3% at ages 2-4 years. The Rust and Thomas method was the only method to give a lower estimate in the younger age group (0.7% vs 0.8%), suggesting that it was the only method that adjusted appropriately for the marked effect of BCG-attributable induration in the very young. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

  15. Rb-Sr age estimation of granites-gneisses of Belopotokskij type (Soviet Carpathians)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stepanyuk, L.M.; Kotlovskaya, F.I.; Dovbush, T.I.

    1987-01-01

    Using rubidium-strontium method the age of granito-gneisses of Belopotokskij type of 470 ± 6 mln. years, which agree with isotopic age (459 ± 6 mln. years) obtained by uranium-lead isochronous method using syngenetic zircon, is established. The latter testifies to the manifestation of magmatic activity 460-470 mln. years ago. The low initial ratio of strontium isotopes 87 Sr/ 86 Sr and results of petrographic study of fel spars are indicative of magmatic nature of initial granites and plutonic (mantle or lower crust) source of magma, crystallization of which was the beginning of the Belopotokskij type granito-gneiss formation

  16. Bayesian networks of age estimation and classification based on dental evidence: A study on the third molar mineralization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sironi, Emanuele; Pinchi, Vilma; Pradella, Francesco; Focardi, Martina; Bozza, Silvia; Taroni, Franco

    2018-04-01

    Not only does the Bayesian approach offer a rational and logical environment for evidence evaluation in a forensic framework, but it also allows scientists to coherently deal with uncertainty related to a collection of multiple items of evidence, due to its flexible nature. Such flexibility might come at the expense of elevated computational complexity, which can be handled by using specific probabilistic graphical tools, namely Bayesian networks. In the current work, such probabilistic tools are used for evaluating dental evidence related to the development of third molars. A set of relevant properties characterizing the graphical models are discussed and Bayesian networks are implemented to deal with the inferential process laying beyond the estimation procedure, as well as to provide age estimates. Such properties include operationality, flexibility, coherence, transparence and sensitivity. A data sample composed of Italian subjects was employed for the analysis; results were in agreement with previous studies in terms of point estimate and age classification. The influence of the prior probability elicitation in terms of Bayesian estimate and classifies was also analyzed. Findings also supported the opportunity to take into consideration multiple teeth in the evaluative procedure, since it can be shown this results in an increased robustness towards the prior probability elicitation process, as well as in more favorable outcomes from a forensic perspective. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

  17. A Novel Physiology-Based Mathematical Model to Estimate Red Blood Cell Lifespan in Different Human Age Groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Guohua; Widness, John A; Mock, Donald M; Veng-Pedersen, Peter

    2016-09-01

    Direct measurement of red blood cell (RBC) survival in humans has improved from the original accurate but limited differential agglutination technique to the current reliable, safe, and accurate biotin method. Despite this, all of these methods are time consuming and require blood sampling over several months to determine the RBC lifespan. For situations in which RBC survival information must be obtained quickly, these methods are not suitable. With the exception of adults and infants, RBC survival has not been extensively investigated in other age groups. To address this need, we developed a novel, physiology-based mathematical model that quickly estimates RBC lifespan in healthy individuals at any age. The model is based on the assumption that the total number of RBC recirculations during the lifespan of each RBC (denoted by N max) is relatively constant for all age groups. The model was initially validated using the data from our prior infant and adult biotin-labeled red blood cell studies and then extended to the other age groups. The model generated the following estimated RBC lifespans in 2-year-old, 5-year-old, 8-year-old, and 10-year-old children: 62, 74, 82, and 86 days, respectively. We speculate that this model has useful clinical applications. For example, HbA1c testing is not reliable in identifying children with diabetes because HbA1c is directly affected by RBC lifespan. Because our model can estimate RBC lifespan in children at any age, corrections to HbA1c values based on the model-generated RBC lifespan could improve diabetes diagnosis as well as therapy in children.

  18. The transverse diameter of the chest on routine radiographs reliably estimates gestational age and weight in premature infants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dietz, Kelly R. [University of Minnesota, Department of Radiology, Minneapolis, MN (United States); Zhang, Lei [University of Minnesota, Biostatistical Design and Analysis Center, Minneapolis, MN (United States); Seidel, Frank G. [Lucile Packard Children' s Hospital, Department of Radiology, Stanford, CA (United States)

    2015-08-15

    Prior to digital radiography it was possible for a radiologist to easily estimate the size of a patient on an analog film. Because variable magnification may be applied at the time of processing an image, it is now more difficult to visually estimate an infant's size on the monitor. Since gestational age and weight significantly impact the differential diagnosis of neonatal diseases and determine the expected size of kidneys or appearance of the brain by MRI or US, this information is useful to a pediatric radiologist. Although this information may be present in the electronic medical record, it is frequently not readily available to the pediatric radiologist at the time of image interpretation. To determine if there was a correlation between gestational age and weight of a premature infant with their transverse chest diameter (rib to rib) on admission chest radiographs. This retrospective study was approved by the institutional review board, which waived informed consent. The maximum transverse chest diameter outer rib to outer rib was measured on admission portable chest radiographs of 464 patients admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) during the 2010 calendar year. Regression analysis was used to investigate the association between chest diameter and gestational age/birth weight. Quadratic term of chest diameter was used in the regression model. Chest diameter was statistically significantly associated with both gestational age (P < 0.0001) and birth weight (P < 0.0001). An infant's gestational age and birth weight can be reliably estimated by comparing a simple measurement of the transverse chest diameter on digital chest radiograph with the tables and graphs in our study. (orig.)

  19. Application of third molar development and eruption models in estimating dental age in Malay sub-adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohd Yusof, Mohd Yusmiaidil Putera; Cauwels, Rita; Deschepper, Ellen; Martens, Luc

    2015-08-01

    The third molar development (TMD) has been widely utilized as one of the radiographic method for dental age estimation. By using the same radiograph of the same individual, third molar eruption (TME) information can be incorporated to the TMD regression model. This study aims to evaluate the performance of dental age estimation in individual method models and the combined model (TMD and TME) based on the classic regressions of multiple linear and principal component analysis. A sample of 705 digital panoramic radiographs of Malay sub-adults aged between 14.1 and 23.8 years was collected. The techniques described by Gleiser and Hunt (modified by Kohler) and Olze were employed to stage the TMD and TME, respectively. The data was divided to develop three respective models based on the two regressions of multiple linear and principal component analysis. The trained models were then validated on the test sample and the accuracy of age prediction was compared between each model. The coefficient of determination (R²) and root mean square error (RMSE) were calculated. In both genders, adjusted R² yielded an increment in the linear regressions of combined model as compared to the individual models. The overall decrease in RMSE was detected in combined model as compared to TMD (0.03-0.06) and TME (0.2-0.8). In principal component regression, low value of adjusted R(2) and high RMSE except in male were exhibited in combined model. Dental age estimation is better predicted using combined model in multiple linear regression models. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

  20. Adult fly age estimations using cuticular hydrocarbons and Artificial Neural Networks in forensically important Calliphoridae species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Hannah E; Butcher, John B; Day, Charles R; Drijfhout, Falko P

    2017-11-01

    Blowflies (Diptera: Calliphoridae) are forensically important as they are known to be one of the first to colonise human remains. The larval stage is typically used to assist a forensic entomologists with adult flies rarely used as they are difficult to age because they remain morphologically similar once they have gone through the initial transformation upon hatching. However, being able to age them is of interest and importance within the field. This study examined the cuticular hydrocarbons (CHC) of Diptera: Calliphoridae species Lucilia sericata, Calliphora vicina and Calliphora vomitoria. The CHCs were extracted from the cuticles of adult flies and analysed using Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry (GC-MS). The chemical profiles were examined for the two Calliphora species at intervals of day 1, 5, 10, 20 and 30 and up to day 10 for L. sericata. The results show significant chemical changes occurring between the immature and mature adult flies over the extraction period examined in this study. With the aid of a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), samples were seen to cluster, allowing for the age to be established within the aforementioned time frames. The use of ANNs allowed for the automatic classification of novel samples with very good performance. This was a proof of concept study, which developed a method allowing to age post-emergence adults by using their chemical profiles. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Pap Smear Test Prevalence within Three Years (Age 18+) - Small Area Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    For Pap smear test, a woman 18 years of age or older must have reported having at least one Pap smear test in her life. Furthermore, she should have had one within the last three years by the time of interview.

  2. Estimated exposures to perfluorinated compounds in infancy predict attenuated vaccine antibody concentrations at age 5-years

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grandjean, Philippe; Heilmann, Carsten; Weihe, Pal

    2017-01-01

    . As outcomes, serum concentrations of antibodies against tetanus and diphtheria vaccines were determined at age 5. Data from a previous cohort born eight years earlier were available for pooled analyses. Pre-natal exposure showed inverse associations with the antibody concentrations five years later...

  3. A new approach for the analysis of facial growth and age estimation: Iris ratio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machado, Carlos Eduardo Palhares; Flores, Marta Regina Pinheiro; Lima, Laíse Nascimento Correia; Tinoco, Rachel Lima Ribeiro; Bezerra, Ana Cristina Barreto; Evison, Martin Paul; Guimarães, Marco Aurélio

    2017-01-01

    The study of facial growth is explored in many fields of science, including anatomy, genetics, and forensics. In the field of forensics, it acts as a valuable tool for combating child pornography. The present research proposes a new method, based on relative measurements and fixed references of the human face—specifically considering measurements of the diameter of the iris (iris ratio)—for the analysis of facial growth in association with age in children and sub-adults. The experimental sample consisted of digital photographs of 1000 Brazilian subjects, aged between 6 and 22 years, distributed equally by sex and divided into five specific age groups (6, 10, 14, 18, and 22 year olds ± one month). The software package SAFF-2D® (Forensic Facial Analysis System, Brazilian Federal Police, Brazil) was used for positioning 11 landmarks on the images. Ten measurements were calculated and used as fixed references to evaluate the growth of the other measurements for each age group, as well the accumulated growth (6–22 years old). The Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) was applied for the evaluation of intra-examiner and inter-examiner reliability within a specific set of images. Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient was used to assess the association between each measurement taken and the respective age groups. ANOVA and Post-hoc Tukey tests were used to search for statistical differences between the age groups. The outcomes indicated that facial structures grow with different timing in children and adolescents. Moreover, the growth allometry expressed in this study may be used to understand what structures have more or less proportional variation in function for the age ranges studied. The diameter of the iris was found to be the most stable measurement compared to the others and represented the best cephalometric measurement as a fixed reference for facial growth ratios (or indices). The method described shows promising potential for forensic applications

  4. Dating the writing age of black roller and gel inks by gas chromatography and UV-vis spectrophotometer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yuanyuan; Wang, Jinghan; Yao, Lijuan

    2006-10-16

    The relative and absolute age of roller and gel ink entries determined by gas chromatography (GC) and UV-vis methods are presented in this paper. The relative age of ink entries is concluded by the comparison of solvent amount between questioned and known dated entries. Absolute age of ink entries is estimated through the changing ratio of solvent components between heated and unheated samples without known samples for comparison. The methods are accurate and reliable.

  5. ESTIMATION OF RIGHT VENTRICULAR DIASTOLIC FUNCTION IN PATIENTS WITH ISCHEMIC HEART DISEASE IN DIFFERENT AGE GROUPS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. A. Gajfulin

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim. To study the parameters of diastolic function of the right ventricle (RV in patients with ischemic heart disease (IHD in different age groups. Material and methods. Patients (n=678 with IHD aged 38 to 85 years were included into the study. They underwent echocardiography with assessment of RV diastolic function. The following parameters were assessed: rate of early and late diastolic RV filling (Et and At, rate of early and late diastolic motion of the ring of the tricuspid valve (e't and a't, the propagation velocity of RV early filling flow (Vpt. All patients were divided into 2 groups: 1st one - patients up to 60 years old (n=282 and the 2nd group - patients 60 years and older (n=396. Results. In IHD patients RV diastolic dysfunction was detected more often in older age group (34.3% than in group of patients younger than 60 years (22.3%, p=0.008. The next findings were found in the 2nd group: increase in At; reduction in Et/At ratio and e't/a't, as well as higher levels of systolic and mean pulmonary arterial pressure and the greater the thickness of the RV wall. The following parameters of diastolic RV function correlated with age: At (p=0.004; Et/At (p=0.001; Vpt (p=0.002 and e't/a't ratio (p=0.004. Conclusion. The results should be used in assessment of diastolic RV function in patients of different age groups.

  6. Use of intensity quotients and differences in absolute structure refinement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parsons, Simon; Flack, Howard D.; Wagner, Trixie

    2013-01-01

    Differences and quotients can be defined using Friedel pairs of reflections and applied in refinement to enable absolute structure to be determined precisely even for light atom crystal structures. Several methods for absolute structure refinement were tested using single-crystal X-ray diffraction data collected using Cu Kα radiation for 23 crystals with no element heavier than oxygen: conventional refinement using an inversion twin model, estimation using intensity quotients in SHELXL2012, estimation using Bayesian methods in PLATON, estimation using restraints consisting of numerical intensity differences in CRYSTALS and estimation using differences and quotients in TOPAS-Academic where both quantities were coded in terms of other structural parameters and implemented as restraints. The conventional refinement approach yielded accurate values of the Flack parameter, but with standard uncertainties ranging from 0.15 to 0.77. The other methods also yielded accurate values of the Flack parameter, but with much higher precision. Absolute structure was established in all cases, even for a hydrocarbon. The procedures in which restraints are coded explicitly in terms of other structural parameters enable the Flack parameter to correlate with these other parameters, so that it is determined along with those parameters during refinement

  7. Entrenched geographical and socioeconomic disparities in child mortality: trends in absolute and relative inequalities in Cambodia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eliana Jimenez-Soto

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Cambodia has made considerable improvements in mortality rates for children under the age of five and neonates. These improvements may, however, mask considerable disparities between subnational populations. In this paper, we examine the extent of the country's child mortality inequalities. METHODS: Mortality rates for children under-five and neonates were directly estimated using the 2000, 2005 and 2010 waves of the Cambodian Demographic Health Survey. Disparities were measured on both absolute and relative scales using rate differences and ratios, and where applicable, slope and relative indices of inequality by levels of rural/urban location, regions and household wealth. FINDINGS: Since 2000, considerable reductions in under-five and to a lesser extent in neonatal mortality rates have been observed. This mortality decline has, however, been accompanied by an increase in relative inequality in both rates of child mortality for geography-related stratifying markers. For absolute inequality amongst regions, most trends are increasing, particularly for neonatal mortality, but are not statistically significant. The only exception to this general pattern is the statistically significant positive trend in absolute inequality for under-five mortality in the Coastal region. For wealth, some evidence for increases in both relative and absolute inequality for neonates is observed. CONCLUSION: Despite considerable gains in reducing under-five and neonatal mortality at a national level, entrenched and increased geographical and wealth-based inequality in mortality, at least on a relative scale, remain. As expected, national progress seems to be associated with the period of political and macroeconomic stability that started in the early 2000s. However, issues of quality of care and potential non-inclusive economic growth might explain remaining disparities, particularly across wealth and geography markers. A focus on further addressing key

  8. Human dental age estimation using third molar developmental stages: does a Bayesian approach outperform regression models to discriminate between juveniles and adults?

    OpenAIRE

    Thevissen, P. W.; FIEUWS, Steffen; Willems, G.

    2010-01-01

    Dental age estimation methods based on the radiologically detected third molar developmental stages are implemented in forensic age assessments to discriminate between juveniles and adults considering the judgment of young unaccompanied asylum seekers. Accurate and unbiased age estimates combined with appropriate quantified uncertainties are the required properties for accurate forensic reporting. In this study, a subset of 910 individuals uniformly distributed in age between 16 and 22 years ...

  9. Age- and Tumor Subtype-Specific Breast Cancer Risk Estimates for CHEK2*1100delC Carriers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Marjanka K; Hogervorst, Frans; van Hien, Richard R

    2016-01-01

    subtype- and age-specific risk estimates by using data from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium, including 44,777 patients with breast cancer and 42,997 controls from 33 studies genotyped for CHEK2*1100delC. PATIENTS AND METHODS: CHEK2*1100delC genotyping was mostly done by a custom Taqman assay......PURPOSE: CHEK2*1100delC is a well-established breast cancer risk variant that is most prevalent in European populations; however, there are limited data on risk of breast cancer by age and tumor subtype, which limits its usefulness in breast cancer risk prediction. We aimed to generate tumor...... age for breast cancer overall (P = .001) and for ER-positive tumors (P = .001). Estimated cumulative risks for development of ER-positive and ER-negative tumors by age 80 in CHEK2*1100delC carriers were 20% and 3%, respectively, compared with 9% and 2%, respectively, in the general population...

  10. Estimation of single-year-of-age counts of live births, fetal losses, abortions, and pregnant women for counties of Texas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Bismark; Meyers, Lauren Ancel

    2017-05-08

    We provide a methodology for estimating counts of single-year-of-age live-births, fetal-losses, abortions, and pregnant women from aggregated age-group counts. As a case study, we estimate counts for the 254 counties of Texas for the year 2010. We use interpolation to estimate counts of live-births, fetal-losses, and abortions by women of each single-year-of-age for all Texas counties. We then use these counts to estimate the numbers of pregnant women for each single-year-of-age, which were previously available only in aggregate. To support public health policy and planning, we provide single-year-of-age estimates of live-births, fetal-losses, abortions, and pregnant women for all Texas counties in the year 2010, as well as the estimation method source code.

  11. Are morphometrics sufficient for estimating age of pre-fledging birds in the field? A test using common terns (Sterna hirundo.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christy N Wails

    Full Text Available Age is a key component of fitness, affecting survival and reproductive capacities. Where it is not possible to study known individuals from birth, morphometrics (predominantly patterns of plumage development for birds are most often used to estimate age. Although criteria for age estimations exist for many species, the degree to which these criteria improve the precision of estimates remains to be tested, restricting their widespread acceptance. We develop a photographic tool for estimating ages of Common Tern (Sterna hirundo chicks and test it using 100 human observers of varying prior experience across four breeding colonies (three North American sites and one European site and under controlled laboratory conditions. We followed the design approach of other morphometric tools, expanding it to create a user-friendly guide (divided into six age groupings. The majority (86% of observers improved in chick-aging accuracy when using the tool by an average of 20.1% (±1.4 SE and correctly estimated 60.3% (±1.4 of chick ages. This was similar to the intrinsic aging ability of our best field observer (63.3%. Observers with limited experience showed the greatest increases in chick-aging accuracy over experienced observers who likely had established a method for estimating chick ages prior to using the tool. Even the best observers only correctly estimated ages of chicks 62.9% (±2.8 of the time in the field and 84.0% (±2.9 of the time in the lab when using the tool and typically underestimated ages. This indicates that developmental variation between individual chicks can prevent completely reliable age estimates and corroborates the few existing data that suggest that morphometric criteria fail to achieve robust levels of accuracy and may introduce error into studies that rely on them. We conclude that novel approaches for estimating age, not only morphometric criteria, must be pursued.

  12. Estimating recurrence and incidence of preterm birth subject to measurement error in gestational age: A hidden Markov modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albert, Paul S

    2018-02-21

    Prediction of preterm birth as well as characterizing the etiological factors affecting both the recurrence and incidence of preterm birth (defined as gestational age at birth ≤ 37 wk) are important problems in obstetrics. The National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) consecutive pregnancy study recently examined this question by collecting data on a cohort of women with at least 2 pregnancies over a fixed time interval. Unfortunately, measurement error due to the dating of conception may induce sizable error in computing gestational age at birth. This article proposes a flexible approach that accounts for measurement error in gestational age when making inference. The proposed approach is a hidden Markov model that accounts for measurement error in gestational age by exploiting the relationship between gestational age at birth and birth weight. We initially model the measurement error as being normally distributed, followed by a mixture of normals that has been proposed on the basis of biological considerations. We examine the asymptotic bias of the proposed approach when measurement error is ignored and also compare the efficiency of this approach to a simpler hidden Markov model formulation where only gestational age and not birth weight is incorporated. The proposed model is compared with alternative models for estimating important covariate effects on the risk of subsequent preterm birth using a unique set of data from the NICHD consecutive pregnancy study. Published 2018. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  13. Estimated Aortic Stiffness is Independently Associated with Cardiac Baroreflex Sensitivity in Humans: Role of Aging and Habitual Endurance Exercise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, Gary L.; Harris, Stephen A.; Seals, Douglas R.; Casey, Darren P.; Barlow, Patrick B.; Stauss, Harald M.

    2016-01-01

    We hypothesized that differences in cardiac baroreflex sensitivity (BRS) would be independently associated with aortic stiffness and augmentation index (AI), clinical biomarkers of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, among young sedentary and middle-aged/older sedentary and endurance-trained adults. A total of 36 healthy middle-aged/older (age 55-76 years, n=22 sedentary; n=14 endurance-trained) and 5 young sedentary (age 18-31 years) adults were included in a cross-sectional study. A subset of the middle-aged/older sedentary adults (n=12) completed an 8-week aerobic exercise intervention. Invasive brachial artery blood pressure waveforms were used to compute spontaneous cardiac BRS (via sequence technique) and estimated aortic pulse wave velocity (PWV) and AI (AI, via brachial-aortic transfer function and wave separation analysis). In the cross-sectional study, cardiac BRS was 71% lower in older compared with young sedentary adults (Pbaroreflex and aortic stiffness with age and exercise. PMID:26911535

  14. Is the eye lens method of age estimation reliable in voles?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Jánová, Eva; Nesvadbová, Jiřina; Tkadlec, Emil

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 56, č. 2 (2007), s. 119-125 ISSN 0139-7893 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA206/04/2003; GA ČR(CZ) GD524/05/H536 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60930519 Keywords : age * calibration * eye lens mass * Microtus * sexual differences Subject RIV: EG - Zoology Impact factor: 0.376, year: 2007 http://www.ivb.cz/folia/56/2/119-125_MS1084.pdf

  15. Raman spectroscopy for highly accurate estimation of the age of refrigerated porcine muscle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timinis, Constantinos; Pitris, Costas

    2016-03-01

    The high water content of meat, combined with all the nutrients it contains, make it vulnerable to spoilage at all stages of production and storage even when refrigerated at 5 °C. A non-destructive and in situ tool for meat sample testing, which could provide an accurate indication of the storage time of meat, would be very useful for the control of meat quality as well as for consumer safety. The proposed solution is based on Raman spectroscopy which is non-invasive and can be applied in situ. For the purposes of this project, 42 meat samples from 14 animals were obtained and three Raman spectra per sample were collected every two days for two weeks. The spectra were subsequently processed and the sample age was calculated using a set of linear differential equations. In addition, the samples were classified in categories corresponding to the age in 2-day steps (i.e., 0, 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12 or 14 days old), using linear discriminant analysis and cross-validation. Contrary to other studies, where the samples were simply grouped into two categories (higher or lower quality, suitable or unsuitable for human consumption, etc.), in this study, the age was predicted with a mean error of ~ 1 day (20%) or classified, in 2-day steps, with 100% accuracy. Although Raman spectroscopy has been used in the past for the analysis of meat samples, the proposed methodology has resulted in a prediction of the sample age far more accurately than any report in the literature.

  16. Estimation of physical and mental development of children of the senior pre-school age

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pasichnyk V.M.

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available In this work is conducted physical and mental development of children of the senior preschool age. In the experiment, 90 children took part in the fifth year of life, among which 55 boys and 35 girls. It is noted that the children surveyed rate the physical development of the index corresponds to level - above the average. It was determined that the parameters of the functional state of preschool age children meet the age norm. It is revealed that in determining physical performance among boys set a good level, and satisfactory in girls. It is established that the results of physical fitness of boys is slightly higher than in girls. It was found that the diagnosis of the level of mental development in children fifth year of life, the average productivity and stability of attention, visual and auditory memory, visual-imagery and visual-thinking, and perception of speech correspond to the average level, and cognitive processes such as switching and distribution attention, imagination - a low level.

  17. Report of the workshop on age estimation in beluga: Beaufort, North Carolina, US 5-9 December 2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christina Lockyer

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available A workshop convened by C. Lockyer and A. A. Hohn to examine variation among readers in estimating beluga ages was held in Beaufort, North Carolina, US. Terms of Reference for the workshop included the following: 1.  Provide a guide as to acceptable levels of accuracy and precision for age reading that will enable ages to be used in population models. 2.  Conduct an inter-reader/laboratory comparison for calibration and standardization of age readings from GLG counts among all readers/laboratories. 3.  Provide information on validation that will enable GLG counts to be translated to real age. 4.  Produce a manual of guidelines for the preparation and reading of GLGs in beluga teeth. Presentations by participants are abstracted here. Then we report on the processes used to compare sections, images, and interpretation, and generate guidelines for best practices in beluga age estimation. A comparative study quantified differences among readers and found that precision of experienced readers was good, higher than reported for other odontocetes. Participants agreed that counting GLGs using well prepared thin sections was preferred because they are simpler to prepare than stained sections and there was more agreement among readers compared to using half sections. Examination of teeth from captive beluga as both untreated sections and stained sections and did not clarify the reading of wild beluga teeth. This Workshop concurred with Workshop 1 (Tampa 26-27 November 2011 that interpreting one GLG as an annual record is irrefutable. Guidelines for best practices were developed.

  18. Age- and sex-specific estimation of dose to a normal thyroid from clinical administration of iodine-131

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Killough, G.G.; Eckerman, K.F.

    1986-09-01

    This report describes the derivation of an age- and sex-dependent model of radioiodine dosimetry in the thyroid and the application of the model to estimating the thyroid dose for each of 4215 patients who were exposed to 131 I in diagnostic and therapeutic procedures. In most cases, the data available consisted of the patient's age at the time of administration, the patient's sex, the quantity of activity administered, the clinically determined uptake of radioiodine by the thyroid, and the time after administration at which the uptake was determined. The model was made to conform to these data requirements by the use of age-specific estimates of the biological half-time of iodine in the thyroid and an age- and sex-dependent representation of the mass of the thyroid. Also, it was assumed that the thyroid burden was maximum at 24 hours after administration (the 131 I dose is not critically sensitive to this assumption). The metabolic model is of the form A(t) = K x (exp(-μ 1 t) - exp(-μ 2 t)) μCi where μ/sub i/ = λ/sub r/ + λ/sub i//sup b/ (i = 1, 2), λ/sub r/ is the radiological decay-rate coefficient, and the λ/sub i//sup b/ are biological removal-rate coefficients. The values of λ/sub i//sup b/ are determined by solving a nonlinear equation that depends on assumptions about the time of maximum uptake and the eventual biological loss rate (through which age dependence enters). An addendum (Appendix C) extends the method to other radioiodines and gives age- and sex-dependent dose conversion factors for most isotopes

  19. The genus Cecropia: a biological clock to estimate the age of recently disturbed areas in the Neotropics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul-Camilo Zalamea

    Full Text Available Forest successional processes following disturbance take decades to play out, even in tropical forests. Nonetheless, records of vegetation change in this ecosystem are scarce, increasing the importance of the chronosequence approach to study forest recovery. However, this approach requires accurate dating of secondary forests, which until now was a difficult and/or expensive task. Cecropia is a widespread and abundant pioneer tree genus of the Neotropics. Here we propose and validate a rapid and straightforward method to estimate the age of secondary forest patches based on morphological observations of Cecropia trees. We found that Cecropia-inferred ages were highly correlated with known ages of the forest. We also demonstrate that Cecropia can be used to accurately date disturbances and propose twenty-one species distributed all over the geographical range of the genus as potential secondary forest chronometer species. Our method is limited in applicability by the maximal longevity of Cecropia individuals. Although the oldest chronosequence used in this study was 20 years old, we argue that at least for the first four decades after disturbance, the method described in this study provides very accurate estimations of secondary forest ages. The age of pioneer trees provides not only information needed to calculate the recovery of carbon stocks that would help to improve forest management, but also provides information needed to characterize the initial floristic composition and the rates of species remigration into secondary forest. Our contribution shows how successional studies can be reliably and inexpensively extended without the need to obtain forest ages based on expensive or potentially inaccurate data across the Neotropics.

  20. Estimation of age of the microbial carbonate structures grown at methane

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulin, G. B.; Polikarpov, G. G.; Egorov, V. N.

    2003-04-01

    The 14C-dating of microbial carbonate structures, formed as a result of anaerobic oxidation of methane seeping from the Black Sea seafloor, has showed a gradual increase with depth of the age of carbonates of these buildups. Stable carbon isotope analyses of the carbonate structures and their initial components were used to evaluate contribution of carbon from methane and from the seawater bicarbonates to carbonate material of the microbial structures, showing that 35-55% of carbon in the carbonates is derived from the seeping methane. The given percentage allows calculation of the age of methane, which is assessed to be in the range of about 9300 to 14600 years before present for methane seeping from the shallowest microbial structures, found at the Black Sea shelf edge (~ 200 m of water depth). These time limits correspond to the last glacial period, when the Black Sea was a freshwater lake. Accordingly, the age of methane emanating from the deepest microbial structures (~ 2100 m of a depth) may be assessed as 32000 to 50000 years, suggesting an older sedimentary source of methane seeping from the abyssal Black Sea sediments. Comparing the radiocarbon age of the base and middle parts of the microbial structures gives an approximate time of origin of the deepest and sallowest microbial buildups as about 5300 and 3000 years before present, respectively. These dating corresponds to the first appearance of hydrogen sulfide in the deepest Black Sea waters and to stabilization of the upper boundary of anoxic zone around the present day level. Thus, the age of the Black Sea carbonate structures at different depths of the continental slope may reflect dynamics of the long-term rising of oxic/anoxic interface in the water column, which resulted in change from aerobic to anaerobic oxidation of the seeping methane when oxygen has depleted at the respective depth. This suggestion allows to consider the methane-derived microbial buildups as unique objects for further detailed

  1. Relationship between LIBS Ablation and Pit Volume for Geologic Samples: Applications for in situ Absolute Geochronology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devismes, D.; Cohen, Barbara A.

    2014-01-01

    In planetary sciences, in situ absolute geochronology is a scientific and engineering challenge. Currently, the age of the Martian surface can only be determined by crater density counting. However this method has significant uncertainties and needs to be calibrated with absolute ages. We are developing an instrument to acquire in situ absolute geochronology based on the K-Ar method. The protocol is based on the laser ablation of a rock by hundreds of laser pulses. Laser Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) gives the potassium content of the ablated material and a mass spectrometer (quadrupole or ion trap) measures the quantity of 40Ar released. In order to accurately measure the quantity of released 40Ar in cases where Ar is an atmospheric constituent (e.g., Mars), the sample is first put into a chamber under high vacuum. The 40Arquantity, the concentration of K and the estimation of the ablated mass are the parameters needed to give the age of the rocks. The main uncertainties with this method are directly linked to the measures of the mass (typically some µg) and of the concentration of K by LIBS (up to 10%). Because the ablated mass is small compared to the mass of the sample, and because material is redeposited onto the sample after ablation, it is not possible to directly measure the ablated mass. Our current protocol measures the ablated volume and estimates the sample density to calculate ablated mass. The precision and accuracy of this method may be improved by using knowledge of the sample's geologic properties to predict its response to laser ablation, i.e., understanding whether natural samples have a predictable relationship between laser energy deposited and resultant ablation volume. In contrast to most previous studies of laser ablation, theoretical equations are not highly applicable. The reasons are numerous, but the most important are: a) geologic rocks are complex, polymineralic materials; b) the conditions of ablation are unusual (for example

  2. Absolutely summing multilinear operators: a Panorama | Pellegrino ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper has a twofold purpose: to present an overview of the theory of absolutely summing operators and its different generalizations for the multilinear setting, and to sketch the beginning of a research project related to an objective search of “perfect” multilinear extensions of the ideal of absolutely summing operators.

  3. A new approach to constrain basal helium flux into aquifers for better estimation of groundwater ages by Helium 4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsumoto, Takuya; Sturchio, Neil C.; Chang, Hung K.; Gastmans, Didier; Araguas-Araguas, Luis J.; Jiang, Wei; Lu, Zheng-Tian; Mueller, Peter; Yokochi, Reika; Purtschert, Roland; Zongyu, Chen; Shuiming, Hu; Aggarwal, Pradeep K.

    2016-04-01

    Estimation of groundwater age through the combined use of isotope methods and groundwater flow modelling is the common approach used for developing the required level of knowledge in the case of groundwater pumped from deep aquifers. For more than 50 years radiocarbon and tritium have been the common tools used in isotope hydrology studies to provide first estimates of groundwater age and dynamics. The half-life of carbon-14 (5730 years) and the complex geochemistry of carbon species in most environments have limited the proper characterization of groundwater flow patterns in large sedimentary basins and deep aquifers to ages more recent than about 40 000 years. Over the last years, a number of long-live radionuclides and other isotopes have been tested as more reliable age indicators by specialised laboratories. Among these methods, chlorine-36 (half-life of 300 000 yr) has been used with mixed results, mainly due to problems derived from in-situ production of this radionuclide. Uranium isotopes have also been used in a few instances, but never became a routine tool. Accumulation of helium-4 in deep groundwaters has also been proposed and used in a few instance, but one major obstacle in the 4He dating method is a difficulty in assessing a rate constant of 4He input into aquifers (namely, the entering basal 4He flux). In this context, recent breakthrough developments in analytical methods allow the precise determination of dissolved noble gases in groundwater as well as trace-level noble gas radionuclides present in very old groundwaters. Atom trap trace analysis, or ATTA, has dramatically improved over the last years the processing of very small amount of noble gases, providing now real possibilities for routine measurements of extremely low concentration of exotic radionuclides dissolved in groundwater, such as krypton-81 (half-life 229 000 years). Atom trap trace analysis involves the selective capture of individual atoms of a given isotope using six laser

  4. Absolute scale-based imaging position encoder with submicron accuracy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anisimov, Andrey G.; Pantyushin, Anton V.; Lashmanov, Oleg U.; Vasilev, A. S.; Timofeev, Alexander N.; Korotaev, Valery V.; Gordeev, Sergey V.

    2013-04-01

    Study is devoted to experimental research and development of absolute imaging position encoder based on standard calibrated scale of invar alloy with 1 mm spacing. The encoder uses designed imaging system as a vernier and absolute magnetic encoder as a rough indication. The features of optical design, choice and use of imaging system as long as indexes images processing algorithm are described. A shadow method was implemented: indexes images on a CCD array are formed by the lens focused at the scale surface; the laser module lights up the scale through a beam-splitting prism by a parallel beam. Further dark indexes images on a light scale background are detected and analyzed to estimate the encoder position. Full range of experimental tests was set to calibrate the encoder and to estimate the accuracy. As a result, accuracy close to 1 μm at 1 m was achieved.

  5. Statistical estimation of absolute gravity values | Aku | Science World ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Science World Journal. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 2, No 1 (2007) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads. Username, Password, Remember me, or Register · Download this PDF file. The PDF file you selected should load here ...

  6. Statistical estimation of absolute gravity values | Aku | Science World ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Gravity measurements at stations in northwestern Nigeria were assumed to be random variables. Gravity data collected was used to illustrate the gravity network adjustment theories. Residuals of the network were inspected to detect gross errors by standardizing the residuals. Computed standard deviation for unit weight ...

  7. Estimating absolute price level in Estonia / Meelis Angerma

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Angerma, Meelis

    2006-01-01

    Lähema ühe kuni viie aasta jooksul asendab Eestis ühisraha euro kohaliku valuuta krooni, kaob võimalus arvutada Eesti-spetsiifilist reaalkurssi ehk hinnataset nominaalse vahetuskursi järgi. Suhtelise hinnataseme arvutamise vajadus EL-is kasvab, sest majandussidemed liikmesriikidega järjest tihenevad. Majandusotsuste langetamiseks vajavad majandussubjektid põhjalikku informatsiooni üksikute kaupade suhtelise hinna ja kaupade grupi suhtelise hinnataseme kohta. Tabelid

  8. Forensic age estimation based on magnetic resonance imaging of third molars: converting 2D staging into 3D staging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Tobel, Jannick; Hillewig, Elke; Verstraete, Koenraad

    2017-03-01

    Established methods to stage development of third molars for forensic age estimation are based on the evaluation of radiographs, which show a 2D projection. It has not been investigated whether these methods require any adjustments in order to apply them to stage third molars on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), which shows 3D information. To prospectively study root stage assessment of third molars in age estimation using 3 Tesla MRI and to compare this with panoramic radiographs, in order to provide considerations for converting 2D staging into 3D staging and to determine the decisive root. All third molars were evaluated in 52 healthy participants aged 14-26 years using MRI in three planes. Three staging methods were investigated by two observers. In sixteen of the participants, MRI findings were compared with findings on panoramic radiographs. Decisive roots were palatal in upper third molars and distal in lower third molars. Fifty-seven per cent of upper third molars were not assessable on the radiograph, while 96.9% were on MRI. Upper third molars were more difficult to evaluate on radiographs than on MRI (p third molars were equally assessable on both imaging techniques (93.8% MRI, 98.4% radiograph), with no difference in level of difficulty (p = .375). Inter- and intra-observer agreement for evaluation was higher in MRI than in radiographs. In both imaging techniques lower third molars showed greater inter- and intra-observer agreement compared to upper third molars. MR images in the sagittal plane proved to be essential for staging. In age estimation, 3T MRI of third molars could be valuable. Some considerations are, however, necessary to transfer known staging methods to this 3D technique.

  9. Inter-lab comparison of precision and recommended methods for age estimation of Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris using growth layer groups in earbones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katherine Brill

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Manatees are routinely aged by counting Growth Layer Groups (GLGs in periotic bones (earbones. Manatee carcasses recovered in Florida between 1974 and 2010 provided age-estimation material for three readers and formed the base for a retrospective analysis of aging precision (repeatability. All readers were in good agreement (high precision with the greatest apparent source of variation being the result of earbone remodelling with increasing manatee age. Over the same period, methods of sample preparation and of determining a final age estimate changed. We examined the effects of altering methods on ease of reading GLGs and found no statistical differences. Accurate age estimates are an important component for effective management of the species and for better models of population trends and we summarize the currently recommended methods for estimating manatee ages using earbones.

  10. New models for age estimation and assessment of their accuracy using developing mandibular third molar teeth in a Thai population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duangto, P; Iamaroon, A; Prasitwattanaseree, S; Mahakkanukrauh, P; Janhom, A

    2017-03-01

    Age estimation using developing third molar teeth is considered an important and accurate technique for both clinical and forensic practices. The aims of this study were to establish population-specific reference data, to develop age prediction models using mandibular third molar development, to test the accuracy of the resulting models, and to find the probability of persons being at the age thresholds of legal relevance in a Thai population. A total of 1867 digital panoramic radiographs of Thai individuals aged between 8 and 23 years was selected to assess dental age. The mandibular third molar development was divided into nine stages. The stages were evaluated and each stage was transformed into a development score. Quadratic regression was employed to develop age prediction models. Our results show that males reached mandibular third molar root formation stages earlier than females. The models revealed a high correlation coefficient for both left and right mandibular third molar teeth in both sexes (R = 0.945 and 0.944 in males, R = 0.922 and 0.923 in females, respectively). Furthermore, the accuracy of the resulting models was tested in randomly selected 374 cases and showed low error values between the predicted dental age and the chronological age for both left and right mandibular third molar teeth in both sexes (-0.13 and -0.17 years in males, 0.01 and 0.03 years in females, respectively). In Thai samples, when the mandibular third molar teeth reached stage H, the probability of the person being over 18 years was 100 % in both sexes.

  11. Quantum nonequilibrium equalities with absolute irreversibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funo, Ken; Murashita, Yûto; Ueda, Masahito

    2015-07-01

    We derive quantum nonequilibrium equalities in absolutely irreversible processes. Here by absolute irreversibility we mean that in the backward process the density matrix does not return to the subspace spanned by those eigenvectors that have nonzero weight in the initial density matrix. Since the initial state of a memory and the postmeasurement state of the system are usually restricted to a subspace, absolute irreversibility occurs during the measurement and feedback processes. An additional entropy produced in absolutely irreversible processes needs to be taken into account to derive nonequilibrium equalities. We discuss a model of a feedback control on a qubit system to illustrate the obtained equalities. By introducing N heat baths each composed of a qubit and letting them interact with the system, we show how the entropy reduction via feedback control can be converted into work. An explicit form of extractable work in the presence of absolute irreversibility is given.

  12. Detection of RAGE expression and its application to diabetic wound age estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Xin-Yi; Chen, Yang; Ye, Guang-Hua; Dong, Miao-Wu; Lin, Ke-Zhi; Han, Jun-Ge; Feng, Xiang-Ping; Li, Xing-Biao; Yu, Lin-Sheng; Fan, Yan-Yan

    2017-05-01

    With the prevalence of diabetes, it is becoming important to analyze the diabetic wound age in forensic practice. The present study investigated the time-dependent expression of receptor for advanced glycation end products (RAGE) during diabetic wound healing in mice and its applicability to wound age determination by immunohistochemistry, double immunofluorescence, and Western blotting. After an incision was created in genetically diabetic db/db mice and control mice, mice were killed at posttraumatic intervals ranging from 6 h to 14 days, followed by the sampling of wound margin. Compared with control mice, diabetic mice showed the delayed wound healing. In control and diabetic wound specimens, RAGE immunoreactivity was observed in a small number of polymorphonuclear cells (PMNs), a number of macrophages, and fibroblasts. Morphometrically, the positive ratios of RAGE in macrophages or fibroblasts considerably increased in diabetic wounds during late repair, which exceeded 60% at 7 and 10 days post-injury. There were no control wound specimens to show a ratio of >60% in macrophages or fibroblasts. By Western blotting analysis, the ratios of RAGE to GAPDH were >1.4 in all diabetic wound samples from 7 to 10 days post-injury, which were >1.8 at 10 days after injury. By comparison, no control wound specimens indicated a ratio of >1.4. In conclusion, the expression of RAGE is upregulated and temporally distributed in macrophages and fibroblasts during diabetic wound healing, which might be closely involved in prolonged inflammation and deficient healing. Moreover, RAGE is promising as a useful marker for diabetic wound age determination.

  13. Demirjian's stages and Cameriere's third molar maturity index to estimate legal adult age in Peruvian population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quispe Lizarbe, Roselhy Juliana; Solís Adrianzén, Christian; Quezada-Márquez, Milushka Miroslava; Galić, Ivan; Cameriere, Roberto

    2017-03-01

    To compare the accuracy of Demirjian's stages (DS) and Cameriere's third molar maturity index cut-off value (I 3M age of majority on panoramic radiographs (OPTs) from the dental clinic of the Scientific University of the South (UCSUR), Lima, Peru. An observational cross-sectional study was conducted on the sample of 208 digital panoramic radiographs of patients aged 14-22years examined during 2015 in UCSUR. The left lower third molars were analyzed using Adobe Photoshop® CS6. An effectiveness of specific DS and I 3M stages were practical for classify adults and minors in the tested sample, while I 3M <0.08 showed the best performance in both sexes. For I 3M <0.08, the accurate classification, sensitivity and specificity were 0.96, 0.96, 0.96 and 0.90, 0.84 and 0.95 in males and females, respectively. Values of LR+, LR- and p were 24.96, 0.04, 0.97 and 15.68, 0.17, 0.95 in males and females, respectively. The specific cut-off value of third molar maturity index (I 3M <0.08) showed to be more accurate in discriminating adults and minors in Peruvian sample when a test with high sensitivity and specificity is required. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Validation of accelerated ageing of Thales rotary Stirling cryocoolers for the estimation of MTTF

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seguineau, C.,; Cauquil, J.-M.; Martin, J.-Y.; Benschop, T.

    2016-05-01

    The cooled IR detectors are used in a wide range of applications. Most of the time, the cryocoolers are one of the components dimensioning the lifetime of the system. The current market needs tend to reliability figures higher than 15,000hrs in "standard conditions". Field returns are hardly useable mostly because of the uncertain environmental conditions of use, or the differences in user profiles. A previous paper explains how Thales Cryogenics has developed an approach based on accelerated ageing and statistical analysis [1]. The aim of the current paper is to compare results obtained on accelerated ageing on one side, and on the other side, specific field returns where the conditions of use are well known. The comparison between prediction and effective failure rate is discussed. Moreover, a specific focus is done on how some new applications of cryocoolers (continuous operation at a specific temperature) can increase the MTTF. Some assumptions are also exposed on how the failure modes, effects and criticality analysis evolves for continuous operation at a specific temperature and compared to experimental data.

  15. The Effects of the Refugee Crisis on Age Estimation Analysis over the Past 10 Years: A 16-Country Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leanne Sykes

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Dental age estimation (AE tests are routinely done on living and deceased persons. There is anecdotal evidence suggesting an increase in age estimations due to the refugee crisis. Our aim is to determine the reasons and methods for performing dental AE tests in both living and deceased individuals. Global trends in AE over the past 10 years were also investigated. A database of all forensic laboratories was obtained and an electronic questionnaire was sent to all of them. The questionnaire was self-developed and included questions on the reasons for performing AE tests, the preferred methods used in living and deceased individuals, and the people/organizations who requested these AE tests. The number of tests performed annually varied between 0 and 500 and the majority were on asylum seekers, refugees, and for adoption cases. Most units used multiple techniques to determine the age among the living, but seldom used more than three techniques for the