Multiple equilibria in a stochastic implementation of DICE with abrupt climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lempert, Robert J.; Sanstad, Alan H.; Schlesinger, Michael E.

2006-01-01

Integrated assessment modeling of global climate change has focused primarily on gradually occurring changes in the climate system. However, atmospheric and earth scientists have become increasingly concerned that the climate system may be subject to abrupt, discontinuous changes on short time scales, and that anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions could trigger such shifts. Incorporating this type of climate dynamics into economic or integrated assessment models can result in model non-convexity and multiple equilibria, and thus complicate policy analysis relative to models with unique, globally optimal policies. Using a version of the Nordhaus DICE model amended in previous research by Keller et al. (2004) [Keller, Klaus, Benjamin M. Bolker, David F. Bradford, 2004. Uncertain climate thresholds and optimal economic growth. Journal of environmental economics and management 48 (1), 723-741], in conjunction with a stochastic global optimization algorithm, we generate 'level sets' of solutions, which helps identify multiple equilibria resulting from the potential abrupt cessation of the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation. We discuss the implications of this model geometry for formulating greenhouse-gas abatement policy under uncertainty and suggest that this general approach may be useful for addressing a wide range of model non-convexities including those related to endogenous technological change

Tropical-extratropical climate interaction as revealed in idealized coupled climate model experiments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yang, Haijun [Peking University, Department of Atmospheric Science and Laboratory for Severe Storm and Flood Disasters, School of Physics, Beijing (China); Liu, Zhengyu [University of Wisconsin-Madison, Center for Climatic Research and Department of the Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Madison, WI (United States)

2005-06-01

Tropical-extratropical climate interactions are studied by idealized experiments with a prescribed 2 C SST anomaly at different latitude bands in a coupled climate model. Instead of focusing on intrinsic climate variability, this work investigates the mean climate adjustment to remote external forcing. The extratropical impact on tropical climate can be as strong as the tropical impact on extratropical climate, with the remote sea surface temperature (SST) response being about half the magnitude of the imposed SST change in the forcing region. The equatorward impact of extratropical climate is accomplished by both the atmospheric bridge and the oceanic tunnel. About two-thirds of the tropical SST change comes from the atmospheric bridge, while the remaining one-third comes from the oceanic tunnel. The equatorial SST increase is first driven by the reduced latent heat flux and the weakened poleward surface Ekman transport, and then enhanced by the decrease in subtropical cells' strength and the equatorward subduction of warm anomalies. In contrast, the poleward impact of tropical climate is accomplished mainly by the atmospheric bridge, which is responsible for extratropical temperature changes in both the surface and subsurface. Sensitivity experiments also show the dominant role of the Southern Hemisphere oceans in the tropical climate change. (orig.)

Mediterranean climate and some tropical teleconnections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alpert, P.; Price, C.; Krichak, S.; Saaroni, H.; Osetinsky, I.; Barkan, J.; Kishcha, P.; Ziv, B.

2006-01-01

Some strong natural fluctuations of climate in the Eastern Mediterranean (EM) region are shown to be connected to the major tropical systems, e.g., El Ni no Southern Oscillation, South Asian Monsoon and hurricanes. Modelling of the severe floods suggests a relation to tropical hurricanes. For a specific event, high-resolution modelling of the severe flood on December 3-5, 2001 in Israel suggests a relation to hurricane Olga. In order to understand the factors governing the Eastern Mediterranean climate variability in the summer season, the relationship between extreme summer temperatures and the South Asian Monsoon was examined. Other tropical factors, like the Red Sea Trough system and the Saharan dust, also contribute to the Mediterranean climate variability

Early Holocene hydroclimate of Baffin Bay: Understanding the interplay between abrupt climate change events and ice sheet fluctuations

Science.gov (United States)

Corcoran, M. C.; Thomas, E. K.; Castañeda, I. S.; Briner, J. P.

2017-12-01

Understanding the causes of ice sheet fluctuations resulting in sea level rise is essential in today's warming climate. In high-latitude ice-sheet-proximal environments such as Baffin Bay, studying both the cause and the rate of ice sheet variability during past abrupt climate change events aids in predictions. Past climate reconstructions are used to understand ice sheet responses to changes in temperature and precipitation. The 9,300 and 8,200 yr BP events are examples of abrupt climate change events in the Baffin Bay region during which there were multiple re-advances of the Greenland and Laurentide ice sheets. High-resolution (decadal-scale) hydroclimate variability near the ice sheet margins during these abrupt climate change events is still unknown. We will generate a decadal-scale record of early Holocene temperature and precipitation using leaf wax hydrogen isotopes, δ2Hwax, from a lake sediment archive on Baffin Island, western Baffin Bay, to better understand abrupt climate change in this region. Shifts in temperature and moisture source result in changes in environmental water δ2H, which in turn is reflected in δ2Hwax, allowing for past hydroclimate to be determined from these compound-specific isotopes. The combination of terrestrial and aquatic δ2Hwax is used to determine soil evaporation and is ultimately used to reconstruct moisture variability. We will compare our results with a previous analysis of δ2Hwax and branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers, a temperature and pH proxy, in lake sediment from western Greenland, eastern Baffin Bay, which indicates that cool and dry climate occurred in response to freshwater forcing events in the Labrador Sea. Reconstructing and comparing records on both the western and eastern sides of Baffin Bay during the early Holocene will allow for a spatial understanding of temperature and moisture balance changes during abrupt climate events, aiding in ice sheet modeling and predictions of future sea level

Impact of an abrupt cooling event on interglacial methane emissions in northern peatlands

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S. Zürcher

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Rapid changes in atmospheric methane (CH4, temperature and precipitation are documented by Greenland ice core data both for glacial times (the so called Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O events as well as for a cooling event in the early Holocene (the 8.2 kyr event. The onsets of D-O warm events are paralleled by abrupt increases in CH4 by up to 250 ppb in a few decades. Vice versa, the 8.2 kyr event is accompanied by an intermittent decrease in CH4 of about 80 ppb over 150 yr. The abrupt CH4 changes are thought to mainly originate from source emission variations in tropical and boreal wet ecosystems, but complex process oriented bottom-up model estimates of the changes in these ecosystems during rapid climate changes are still missing. Here we present simulations of CH4 emissions from northern peatlands with the LPJ-Bern dynamic global vegetation model. The model represents CH4 production and oxidation in soils and transport by ebullition, through plant aerenchyma, and by diffusion. Parameters are tuned to represent site emission data as well as inversion-based estimates of northern wetland emissions. The model is forced with climate input data from freshwater hosing experiments using the NCAR CSM1.4 climate model to simulate an abrupt cooling event. A concentration reduction of ~10 ppb is simulated per degree K change of mean northern hemispheric surface temperature in peatlands. Peatland emissions are equally sensitive to both changes in temperature and in precipitation. If simulated changes are taken as an analogy to the 8.2 kyr event, boreal peatland emissions alone could only explain 23% of the 80 ppb decline in atmospheric methane concentration. This points to a significant contribution to source changes from low latitude and tropical wetlands to this event.

Causes and projections of abrupt climate-driven ecosystem shifts in the North Atlantic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Beaugrand, G.; Edwards, M.; Brander, Keith

2008-01-01

Warming of the global climate is now unequivocal and its impact on Earth' functional units has become more apparent. Here, we show that marine ecosystems are not equally sensitive to climate change and reveal a critical thermal boundary where a small increase in temperature triggers abrupt...... ecosystem shifts seen across multiple trophic levels. This large-scale boundary is located in regions where abrupt ecosystem shifts have been reported in the North Atlantic sector and thereby allows us to link these shifts by a global common phenomenon. We show that these changes alter the biodiversity...... and carrying capacity of ecosystems and may, combined with fishing, precipitate the reduction of some stocks of Atlantic cod already severely impacted by exploitation. These findings offer a way to anticipate major ecosystem changes and to propose adaptive strategies for marine exploited resources such as cod...

Linear trend and abrupt changes of climate indices in the arid region of northwestern China

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Huaijun; Pan, Yingping; Chen, Yaning; Ye, Zhengwei

2017-11-01

In recent years, climate extreme events have caused increasing direct economic and social losses in the arid region of northwestern China. Based on daily temperature and precipitation data from 1960 to 2010, this paper discussed the linear trend and abrupt changes of climate indices. The general evolution was obtained by the empirical orthogonal function (EOF), the Mann-Kendall test, and the distribution-free cumulative sum chart (CUSUM) test. The results are as follows: (1) climate showed a warming trend at annual and seasonal scale, with all temperature indices exhibiting statistically significant changes. The warm indices have increased, with 1.37%days/decade of warm days (TX90p), 0.17 °C/decade of warmest days (TXx) and 1.97 days/decade of warm spell duration indicator (WSDI), respectively. The cold indices have decreased, with - 1.89%days/decade, 0.65 °C/decade and - 0.66 days/decade for cold nights (TN10p), coldest nights (TNn) and cold spell duration indicator (CSDI), respectively. The precipitation indices have also increased significantly, coupled with the changes of magnitude (max 1-day precipitation amount (RX1day)), frequency (rain day (R0.1)), and duration (consecutive dry days (CDD)). (2) Abrupt changes of the annual regional precipitation indices and the minimum temperature indices were observed around 1986, and that of the maximum temperature indices were observed in 1996. (3) The EOF1 indicated the overall coherent distribution for the whole study area, and its principal component (PC1) was also observed, showing a significant linear trend with an abrupt change, which were in accordance with the regional observation results. EOF2 and EOF3 show contrasts between the southern and northern study areas, and between the eastern and western study areas, respectively, whereas no significant tendency was observed for their PCs. Hence, the climate indices have changed significantly, with linear trends and abrupt changes noted for all climate indices

New recommendations for building in tropical climates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Waal, H.B. de (ISOVER BV, Cappelle a/d IJssel (Netherlands))

1993-07-01

Traditional recommendations for building a thermally efficient or comfortable building in a tropical climate are briefly summarized. They suffer from three main drawbacks; they are not quantitative, partly incorrect and only for two climates; the hot dry and the warm humid. A new climate classification, made up of forty tropical climates is presented. Eight building elements, which affect the thermal system of a building, are distinguished. The method by which the new recommendations are derived, is discussed. The new recommendations are briefly presented. (Author)

Postglacial Human resilience and susceptibility to abrupt climate change new insights from Star Carr

Science.gov (United States)

Blockley, Simon; Abrook, Ashley; Bayliss, Alex; Candy, Ian; Conneller, Chantal; Darvill, Chris; Deeprose, Laura; Kearney, Rebecca; Langdon, Pete; Langdon Langdon, Cath; Lincoln, Paul; Macleod, Alison; Matthews, Ian; Palmer, Adrian; Schreve, Danielle; Taylor, Barry; Milner, Nicky

2017-04-01

We know little about the lives of the early humans who lived during the early Postglacial period (the Lateglacial and Early Holocene), a time characterised by abrupt climate change after 16,000, which includes a series of abrupt climatic transitions linked to the reorganisation of the global environment after the glacial maximum and the last major global warming event at the onset of the Holocene. The hunter-gatherers who lived during the early Postglacial have been characterised as highly mobile, dispersed and living within small groups, and there is much debate as to how they adapted to climatic and environmental change: did they move in response to climatic transitions (and if so what was the climatic threshold), or instead adapt their lifeways to the new environmental conditions? A key area for examining these ideas is the British Isles as it sits on the Atlantic fringe of Northwest Europe with a climate that is highly responsive to the wider climate forcing experienced in the northern Hemisphere. Furthermore, in this period, Britain is directly linked to continental Europe due to lowered global sea levels allowing for the ease of human migration in and out of this region. In general the British record has been seen as being dominated by abandonment and reoccupation in the Postglacial during periods of climatic transition with hunter-gatherer mobility being closely linked to the prevailing environment. Recent discoveries at the Early Mesolithic site of Star Carr and surrounding area, linked to local and regional climate records, based on isotopic, chironomid and pollen proxy data and dated at high chronological resolution, offer a new picture. Postglacial human occupation of the area commences at the Pleistocene/Holocene transition but is short lived and appears to end close to the Pre-Boreal Oscillation, However, this is followed by a period where hunter-gatherers occupy Star Carr and settle and invest time and effort into building huts and large scale wooden

Revisiting of Stommel's model for the understanding of the abrupt climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scatamacchia, R.; Purini, R.; Rafanelli, C.

2010-01-01

Despite the enormous number of papers devoted to modelling climate changes, the pionieristic Stommel paper (1961) remains a still valid tool for the understanding of the basic mechanism that governs the abrupt climate change, i.e. the existence of multipla equilibria in the governing non-linear equations. Using non-dimensional quantities, Stommel did not provide any explicit information about the temporal scale affecting the process under examination when the control parameters are varied. On the basis of this consideration, the present paper revisits the Stommel theory putting some emphasis on the quantitative estimate of how the variations of the control system parameters system modify the fundamental motor of the climate change, i.e. the thermohaline circulation.

An abrupt centennial-scale drought event and mid-holocene climate change patterns in monsoon marginal zones of East Asia.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu Li

Full Text Available The mid-latitudes of East Asia are characterized by the interaction between the Asian summer monsoon and the westerly winds. Understanding long-term climate change in the marginal regions of the Asian monsoon is critical for understanding the millennial-scale interactions between the Asian monsoon and the westerly winds. Abrupt climate events are always associated with changes in large-scale circulation patterns; therefore, investigations into abrupt climate changes provide clues for responses of circulation patterns to extreme climate events. In this paper, we examined the time scale and mid-Holocene climatic background of an abrupt dry mid-Holocene event in the Shiyang River drainage basin in the northwest margin of the Asian monsoon. Mid-Holocene lacustrine records were collected from the middle reaches and the terminal lake of the basin. Using radiocarbon and OSL ages, a centennial-scale drought event, which is characterized by a sand layer in lacustrine sediments both from the middle and lower reaches of the basin, was absolutely dated between 8.0-7.0 cal kyr BP. Grain size data suggest an abrupt decline in lake level and a dry environment in the middle reaches of the basin during the dry interval. Previous studies have shown mid-Holocene drought events in other places of monsoon marginal zones; however, their chronologies are not strong enough to study the mechanism. According to the absolutely dated records, we proposed a new hypothesis that the mid-Holocene dry interval can be related to the weakening Asian summer monsoon and the relatively arid environment in arid Central Asia. Furthermore, abrupt dry climatic events are directly linked to the basin-wide effective moisture change in semi-arid and arid regions. Effective moisture is affected by basin-wide precipitation, evapotranspiration, lake surface evaporation and other geographical settings. As a result, the time scales of the dry interval could vary according to locations due to

Possible climatic impact of tropical deforestation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Potter, G L; Ellsaesser, H W; MacCracken, M C; Luther, F M

1975-12-25

A computer model of climate changes resulting from removal of tropical rain forests to increase arable acreage is described. A chain of consequences is deduced from the model which begins with deforestation and ends with overall global cooling and a reduction in precipitation. A model of the global water budget shows that the reduction in precipitation is accompanied by cooling in the upper tropical troposphere, a lowering of the tropical tropopause, and a warming of the lower tropical stratosphere. (HLW)

Simulating the vegetation response in western Europe to abrupt climate changes under glacial background conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M.-N. Woillez

2013-03-01

Full Text Available The last glacial period has been punctuated by two types of abrupt climatic events, the Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO and Heinrich (HE events. These events, recorded in Greenland ice and in marine sediments, involved changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC and led to major changes in the terrestrial biosphere. Here we use the dynamical global vegetation model ORCHIDEE to simulate the response of vegetation to abrupt changes in the AMOC strength. We force ORCHIDEE offline with outputs from the IPSL_CM4 general circulation model, in which the AMOC is forced to change by adding freshwater fluxes in the North Atlantic. We investigate the impact of a collapse and recovery of the AMOC, at different rates, and focus on Western Europe, where many pollen records are available for comparison. The impact of an AMOC collapse on the European mean temperatures and precipitations simulated by the GCM is relatively small but sufficient to drive an important regression of forests and expansion of grasses in ORCHIDEE, in qualitative agreement with pollen data for an HE event. On the contrary, a run with a rapid shift of the AMOC to a hyperactive state of 30 Sv, mimicking the warming phase of a DO event, does not exhibit a strong impact on the European vegetation compared to the glacial control state. For our model, simulating the impact of an HE event thus appears easier than simulating the abrupt transition towards the interstadial phase of a DO. For both a collapse or a recovery of the AMOC, the vegetation starts to respond to climatic changes immediately but reaches equilibrium about 200 yr after the climate equilibrates, suggesting a possible bias in the climatic reconstructions based on pollen records, which assume equilibrium between climate and vegetation. However, our study does not take into account vegetation feedbacks on the atmosphere.

North Atlantic ocean circulation and abrupt climate change during the last glaciation.

Science.gov (United States)

Henry, L G; McManus, J F; Curry, W B; Roberts, N L; Piotrowski, A M; Keigwin, L D

2016-07-29

The most recent ice age was characterized by rapid and hemispherically asynchronous climate oscillations, whose origin remains unresolved. Variations in oceanic meridional heat transport may contribute to these repeated climate changes, which were most pronounced during marine isotope stage 3, the glacial interval 25 thousand to 60 thousand years ago. We examined climate and ocean circulation proxies throughout this interval at high resolution in a deep North Atlantic sediment core, combining the kinematic tracer protactinium/thorium (Pa/Th) with the deep water-mass tracer, epibenthic δ(13)C. These indicators suggest reduced Atlantic overturning circulation during every cool northern stadial, with the greatest reductions during episodic Hudson Strait iceberg discharges, while sharp northern warming followed reinvigorated overturning. These results provide direct evidence for the ocean's persistent, central role in abrupt glacial climate change. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Abrupt climate changes during Termination III in Southern Europe.

Science.gov (United States)

Pérez-Mejías, Carlos; Moreno, Ana; Sancho, Carlos; Bartolomé, Miguel; Stoll, Heather; Cacho, Isabel; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, R Lawrence

2017-09-19

The Late Quaternary glacial-interglacial transitions represent the highest amplitude climate changes over the last million years. Unraveling the sequence of events and feedbacks at Termination III (T-III), including potential abrupt climate reversals similar to those of the last Termination, has been particularly challenging due to the scarcity of well-dated records worldwide. Here, we present speleothem data from southern Europe covering the interval from 262.7 to 217.9 kyBP, including the transition from marine isotope stage (MIS) 8 to MIS 7e. High-resolution δ 13 C, δ 18 O, and Mg/Ca profiles reveal major millennial-scale changes in aridity manifested in changing water availability and vegetation productivity. uranium-thorium dates provide a solid chronology for two millennial-scale events (S8.1 and S8.2) which, compared with the last two terminations, has some common features with Heinrich 1 and Heinrich 2 in Termination I (T-I).

Western Tropical Atlantic Hydrologic change during the last 130,000 years

Science.gov (United States)

McGrath, S. M.; Lavoie, N.; Oppo, D.

2016-12-01

Abrupt climate changes in the North Atlantic during the last 130,000 years are associated with hydrologic changes in the western tropical Atlantic Ocean. Previous studies on marine sediment cores from between 4°S and the equator have documented pulses of terrigenous sediment recording increased precipitation and weathering on the Brazilian Nordeste associated with Heinrich events. We worked on cores KNR197-3-11CDH (7°40'N, 53°49'W, water depth 550 m) and KNR 197-3-46CDH (7°50.1621'N, 53°39.8051'W, 947m water depth) located farther north along the South American continental slope, where sediment derives from the Amazon river basin and is transported by the North Brazilian Current. Preliminary stratigraphy based on magnetic susceptibility shows a possible correlation with the Greenland ice core δ18O stratigraphy. We use sediment elemental composition, determined by x-ray fluorescence (XRF) to evaluate variations in terrigenous sediment runoff and δ18O of the planktonic foraminifers Globierinoides ruber to evaluate variations in western tropical North Atlantic surface hydrography across North Atlantic abrupt climate events. Similarities and differences among our records and the records from the more southerly cores will help understand the mechanisms of hydrologic changes in the regions on abrupt climate time scales.

Climate change forces new ecological states in tropical Andean lakes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Neal Michelutti

Full Text Available Air temperatures in the tropical Andes have risen at an accelerated rate relative to the global average over recent decades. However, the effects of climate change on Andean lakes, which are vital to sustaining regional biodiversity and serve as an important water resource to local populations, remain largely unknown. Here, we show that recent climate changes have forced alpine lakes of the equatorial Andes towards new ecological and physical states, in close synchrony to the rapid shrinkage of glaciers regionally. Using dated sediment cores from three lakes in the southern Sierra of Ecuador, we record abrupt increases in the planktonic thalassiosiroid diatom Discostella stelligera from trace abundances to dominance within the phytoplankton. This unprecedented shift occurs against the backdrop of rising temperatures, changing atmospheric pressure fields, and declining wind speeds. Ecological restructuring in these lakes is linked to warming and/or enhanced water column stratification. In contrast to seasonally ice-covered Arctic and temperate alpine counterparts, aquatic production has not increased universally with warming, and has even declined in some lakes, possibly because enhanced thermal stability impedes the re-circulation of hypolimnetic nutrients to surface waters. Our results demonstrate that these lakes have already passed important ecological thresholds, with potentially far-reaching consequences for Andean water resources.

A dampened land use change climate response towards the tropics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Molen, M.K. van der [Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt (Netherlands); Wageningen University and Research Centre (WUR), Department of Meteorology and Air Quality, Wageningen (Netherlands); Hurk, B.J.J.M. van den; Hazeleger, W. [Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt (Netherlands)

2011-11-15

In climate simulations we find a pronounced meridional (equator to pole) gradient of climate response to land cover change. Climate response approaches zero in the tropics, and increases towards the poles. The meridional gradient in climate response to land cover change results from damping feedbacks in the tropics, rather than from polar amplification. The main cause for the damping in the tropics is the decrease in cloud cover after deforestation, resulting in increased incoming radiation at the surface and a lower planetary albedo, both counteracting the increase in surface albedo with deforestation. In our simulations, deforestation was also associated with a decrease in sensible heat flux but not a clear signal in evaporation. Meridional differences in climate response have implications for attribution of observed climate change, as well as for climate change mitigation strategies. (orig.)

Pan-Tropical Analysis of Climate Effects on Seasonal Tree Growth

Science.gov (United States)

Wagner, Fabien; Rossi, Vivien; Aubry-Kientz, Mélaine; Bonal, Damien; Dalitz, Helmut; Gliniars, Robert; Stahl, Clément; Trabucco, Antonio; Hérault, Bruno

2014-01-01

Climate models predict a range of changes in tropical forest regions, including increased average temperatures, decreased total precipitation, reduced soil moisture and alterations in seasonal climate variations. These changes are directly related to the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, primarily CO2. Assessing seasonal forest growth responses to climate is of utmost importance because woody tissues, produced by photosynthesis from atmospheric CO2, water and light, constitute the main component of carbon sequestration in the forest ecosystem. In this paper, we combine intra-annual tree growth measurements from published tree growth data and the corresponding monthly climate data for 25 pan-tropical forest sites. This meta-analysis is designed to find the shared climate drivers of tree growth and their relative importance across pan-tropical forests in order to improve carbon uptake models in a global change context. Tree growth reveals significant intra-annual seasonality at seasonally dry sites or in wet tropical forests. Of the overall variation in tree growth, 28.7% was explained by the site effect, i.e. the tree growth average per site. The best predictive model included four climate variables: precipitation, solar radiation (estimated with extrasolar radiation reaching the atmosphere), temperature amplitude and relative soil water content. This model explained more than 50% of the tree growth variations across tropical forests. Precipitation and solar radiation are the main seasonal drivers of tree growth, causing 19.8% and 16.3% of the tree growth variations. Both have a significant positive association with tree growth. These findings suggest that forest productivity due to tropical tree growth will be reduced in the future if climate extremes, such as droughts, become more frequent. PMID:24670981

Tropical rainforest response to marine sky brightening climate engineering

Science.gov (United States)

Muri, Helene; Niemeier, Ulrike; Kristjánsson, Jón Egill

2015-04-01

Tropical forests represent a major atmospheric carbon dioxide sink. Here the gross primary productivity (GPP) response of tropical rainforests to climate engineering via marine sky brightening under a future scenario is investigated in three Earth system models. The model response is diverse, and in two of the three models, the tropical GPP shows a decrease from the marine sky brightening climate engineering. Partial correlation analysis indicates precipitation to be important in one of those models, while precipitation and temperature are limiting factors in the other. One model experiences a reversal of its Amazon dieback under marine sky brightening. There, the strongest partial correlation of GPP is to temperature and incoming solar radiation at the surface. Carbon fertilization provides a higher future tropical rainforest GPP overall, both with and without climate engineering. Salt damage to plants and soils could be an important aspect of marine sky brightening.

Tropical tele-connections to the Mediterranean climate and weather

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Alpert

2005-01-01

Full Text Available Some strong natural fluctuations of climate in the Eastern Mediterranean (EM region are shown to be connected to the major tropical systems. Potential relations between EM rainfall extremes to tropical systems, e.g. El Niño, Indian Monsoon and hurricanes, are demonstrated. For a specific event, high resolution modelling of the severe flood on 3-5 December 2001 in Israel suggests a relation to hurricane Olga. In order to understand the factors governing the EM climate variability in the summer season, the relationship between extreme summer temperatures and the Indian Monsoon was examined. Other tropical factors like the Red-Sea Trough system and the Saharan dust are also likely to contribute to the EM climate variability.

What if ... abrupt and extreme climate change? Programme of VAM (Vulnerability, Adaptation, Mitigation)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-10-01

A number of researchers from different social scientific disciplines present a view in response to the question 'what will happen in our society if the climate suddenly changes?'. They answer questions such as: How will people respond to real risks such as imminent flooding? What are the economic consequences? How will it affect sectors such as inland shipping and coastal tourism? What are the costs of adapting our country to rising sea levels or sudden cold? As a society what do we consider to be socially and publicly acceptable? Can we still insure ourselves? Who will assume responsibility and what are the tasks of the various parties involved? The book merely sets the scene. Social sciences research into climate change has only just started. Besides providing answers to the question about the social and public implications of abrupt climate change, the book calls for a greater involvement of social scientists in climate change issues

European cloth and "tropical" skin: clothing material and British ideas of health and hygiene in tropical climates.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Ryan

2009-01-01

As Britain's imperial and colonial ambitions intensified toward the end of the nineteenth century, the preservation of white European health in tropical climates became an increasingly important concern. Since at least the seventeenth century, the "tropics" had been seen as spaces holding vast potential wealth but also death and disease. To combat these deadly but desirable landscapes, the British built a considerable commodity culture around the preservation of white European health, and for many, tropical clothing was one of the most important and essential items in their "kits." This article investigates the composition and use of such clothing in relation to British ideas of health and hygiene in tropical climates. First, it considers debates that ensued over the best material--wool, cotton, linen, silk, or a combination of these materials--and the role of "black" skin and local practice in the development of tropical clothing. Second, it demonstrates the importance of location in any discussion of tropical medicine and hygiene, and the tension and ambiguity that still surrounded British ideas of health and hygiene in the tropical colonies. Third, it argues that tropical clothing was important in the maintenance of climatic etiologies despite advances in parasitology and sanitary science. Finally, it considers the relationship of tropical clothing to the formation of a unique colonial identity. To British men and women embarking for any number of tropical destinations, proper clothing was not a banal and mundane component of their outfitting. For many, the clothing signified a departure from the safe and "civil" climes of Britain for adventure in the expanding tropical empire.

Sensitivity of tropical carbon to climate change constrained by carbon dioxide variability.

Science.gov (United States)

Cox, Peter M; Pearson, David; Booth, Ben B; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Huntingford, Chris; Jones, Chris D; Luke, Catherine M

2013-02-21

The release of carbon from tropical forests may exacerbate future climate change, but the magnitude of the effect in climate models remains uncertain. Coupled climate-carbon-cycle models generally agree that carbon storage on land will increase as a result of the simultaneous enhancement of plant photosynthesis and water use efficiency under higher atmospheric CO(2) concentrations, but will decrease owing to higher soil and plant respiration rates associated with warming temperatures. At present, the balance between these effects varies markedly among coupled climate-carbon-cycle models, leading to a range of 330 gigatonnes in the projected change in the amount of carbon stored on tropical land by 2100. Explanations for this large uncertainty include differences in the predicted change in rainfall in Amazonia and variations in the responses of alternative vegetation models to warming. Here we identify an emergent linear relationship, across an ensemble of models, between the sensitivity of tropical land carbon storage to warming and the sensitivity of the annual growth rate of atmospheric CO(2) to tropical temperature anomalies. Combined with contemporary observations of atmospheric CO(2) concentration and tropical temperature, this relationship provides a tight constraint on the sensitivity of tropical land carbon to climate change. We estimate that over tropical land from latitude 30° north to 30° south, warming alone will release 53 ± 17 gigatonnes of carbon per kelvin. Compared with the unconstrained ensemble of climate-carbon-cycle projections, this indicates a much lower risk of Amazon forest dieback under CO(2)-induced climate change if CO(2) fertilization effects are as large as suggested by current models. Our study, however, also implies greater certainty that carbon will be lost from tropical land if warming arises from reductions in aerosols or increases in other greenhouse gases.

New evidence on the sequence of deglacial warming in the tropical Indian Ocean

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Naidu, P.D.; Govil, P.

. Quat. Sci., vol.25(7); 2010; 1138-1143 A New Evidence on Sequence of Deglacial Warming in the Tropical Indian Ocean P. Divakar Naidu 1 , Pawan Govil 1,2 1 National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula 403 004, Goa, India 2 National Centre... relative timing of abrupt climate warming in the tropics versus the high latitudes should be known. Therefore, the present communication is aimed to address the start of deglaciation in the Indian Ocean based on sea surface temperature (SST) derived from...

Sensitivity of tropical climate to low-level clouds in the NCEP climate forecast system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hu, Zeng-Zhen [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Huang, Bohua; Schneider, Edwin K. [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); George Mason University, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, Fairfax, VA (United States); Hou, Yu-Tai; Yang, Fanglin [NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Environmental Modeling Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Wang, Wanqiu [NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Stan, Cristiana [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States)

2011-05-15

In this work, we examine the sensitivity of tropical mean climate and seasonal cycle to low clouds and cloud liquid water path (CLWP) by prescribing them in the NCEP climate forecast system (CFS). It is found that the change of low cloud cover alone has a minor influence on the amount of net shortwave radiation reaching the surface and on the warm biases in the southeastern Atlantic. In experiments where CLWP is prescribed using observations, the mean climate in the tropics is improved significantly, implying that shortwave radiation absorption by CLWP is mainly responsible for reducing the excessive surface net shortwave radiation over the southern oceans in the CFS. Corresponding to large CLWP values in the southeastern oceans, the model generates large low cloud amounts. That results in a reduction of net shortwave radiation at the ocean surface and the warm biases in the sea surface temperature in the southeastern oceans. Meanwhile, the cold tongue and associated surface wind stress in the eastern oceans become stronger and more realistic. As a consequence of the overall improvement of the tropical mean climate, the seasonal cycle in the tropical Atlantic is also improved. Based on the results from these sensitivity experiments, we propose a model bias correction approach, in which CLWP is prescribed only in the southeastern Atlantic by using observed annual mean climatology of CLWP. It is shown that the warm biases in the southeastern Atlantic are largely eliminated, and the seasonal cycle in the tropical Atlantic Ocean is significantly improved. Prescribing CLWP in the CFS is then an effective interim technique to reduce model biases and to improve the simulation of seasonal cycle in the tropics. (orig.)

The importance of precessional signals in the tropical climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Clement, A C [Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149 (United States); Hall, A [UCLA, 7955 Math Sciences Building, 405 Hilgard Ave., Box 951565, Los Angeles, CA 90095 (United States); Broccoli, A J [Rutgers University, 14 College Farm Road, New Brunswick, NJ 08901-8551 (United States)

2004-04-01

Past research on the climate response to orbital forcing has emphasized the glacial-interglacial variations in global ice volume, global-mean temperature, and the global hydrologic cycle. This emphasis may be inappropriate in the tropics, where the response to precessional forcing is likely to be somewhat independent of the glacial-interglacial variations, particularly in variables relating to the hydrologic cycle. To illustrate this point, we use an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a slab ocean model, performing experiments that quantify the tropical climate's response to (1) opposite phases of precessional forcing, and (2) Last Glacial Maximum boundary conditions. While the glacially-forced tropical temperature changes are typically more than an order of magnitude larger than those arising from precessional forcing, the hydrologic signals stemming from the two forcings are comparable in magnitude. The mechanisms behind these signals are investigated and shown to be quite distinct for the precessional and glacial forcing. Because of strong dynamical linkages in the tropics, the model results illustrate the impossibility of predicting the local hydrologic response to external forcing without understanding the response at much larger spatial scales. Examples from the paleoclimate record are presented as additional evidence for the importance of precessional signals in past variations of the tropical climate. (orig.)

Climate change and tropical marine agriculture.

Science.gov (United States)

Crabbe, M James C

2009-01-01

The coral reef ecosystem forms part of a 'seascape' that includes land-based ecosystems such as mangroves and forests, and ideally should form a complete system for conservation and management. Aquaculture, including artisanal fishing for fish and invertebrates, shrimp farming, and seaweed farming, is a major part of the farming and gleaning practices of many tropical communities, particularly on small islands, and depends upon the integrity of the reefs. Climate change is making major impacts on these communities, not least through global warming and high CO(2) concentrations. Corals grow within very narrow limits of temperature, provide livelihoods for millions of people in tropical areas, and are under serious threat from a variety of environmental and climate extremes. Corals survive and grow through a symbiotic relationship with photosynthetic algae: zooxanthellae. Such systems apply highly co-operative regulation to minimize the fluctuation of metabolite concentration profiles in the face of transient perturbations. This review will discuss research on how climate influences reef ecosystems, and how science can lead to conservation actions, with benefits for the human populations reliant on the reefs for their survival.

Collaborative Project: Development of an Isotope-Enabled CESM for Testing Abrupt Climate Changes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liu, Zhengyu [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences

2018-01-24

One of the most important validations for a state-of-art Earth System Model (ESM) with respect to climate changes is the simulation of the climate evolution and abrupt climate change events in the Earth’s history of the last 21,000 years. However, one great challenge for model validation is that ESMs usually do not directly simulate geochemical variables that can be compared directly with past proxy records. In this proposal, we have met this challenge by developing the simulation capability of major isotopes in a state-of-art ESM, the Community Earth System Model (CESM), enabling us to make direct model-data comparison by comparing the model directly against proxy climate records. Our isotope-enabled ESM incorporates the capability of simulating key isotopes and geotracers, notably δ¹⁸O, δD, δ¹⁴C, and δ¹³C, Nd and Pa/Th. The isotope-enabled ESM have been used to perform some simulations for the last 21000 years. The direct comparison of these simulations with proxy records has shed light on the mechanisms of important climate change events.

A simple conceptual model of abrupt glacial climate events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Braun

2007-11-01

Full Text Available Here we use a very simple conceptual model in an attempt to reduce essential parts of the complex nonlinearity of abrupt glacial climate changes (the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger events to a few simple principles, namely (i the existence of two different climate states, (ii a threshold process and (iii an overshooting in the stability of the system at the start and the end of the events, which is followed by a millennial-scale relaxation. By comparison with a so-called Earth system model of intermediate complexity (CLIMBER-2, in which the events represent oscillations between two climate states corresponding to two fundamentally different modes of deep-water formation in the North Atlantic, we demonstrate that the conceptual model captures fundamental aspects of the nonlinearity of the events in that model. We use the conceptual model in order to reproduce and reanalyse nonlinear resonance mechanisms that were already suggested in order to explain the characteristic time scale of Dansgaard-Oeschger events. In doing so we identify a new form of stochastic resonance (i.e. an overshooting stochastic resonance and provide the first explicitly reported manifestation of ghost resonance in a geosystem, i.e. of a mechanism which could be relevant for other systems with thresholds and with multiple states of operation. Our work enables us to explicitly simulate realistic probability measures of Dansgaard-Oeschger events (e.g. waiting time distributions, which are a prerequisite for statistical analyses on the regularity of the events by means of Monte-Carlo simulations. We thus think that our study is an important advance in order to develop more adequate methods to test the statistical significance and the origin of the proposed glacial 1470-year climate cycle.

Extreme waves from tropical cyclones and climate change in the Gulf of Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Appendini, Christian M.; Pedrozo-Acuña, Adrian; Meza-Padilla, Rafael; Torres-Freyermuth, Alec; Cerezo-Mota, Ruth; López-González, José

2017-04-01

Tropical cyclones generate extreme waves that represent a risk to infrastructure and maritime activities. The projection of the tropical cyclones derived wave climate are challenged by the short historical record of tropical cyclones, their low occurrence, and the poor wind field resolution in General Circulation Models. In this study we use synthetic tropical cyclones to overcome such limitations and be able to characterize present and future wave climate associated with tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico. Synthetic events derived from the NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models NOAA/GFDL CM3 and UK Met Office HADGEM2-ES, were used to force a third generation wave model to characterize the present and future wave climate under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 escenarios. An increase in wave activity is projected for the future climate, particularly for the GFDL model that shows less bias in the present climate, although some areas are expected to decrease the wave energy. The practical implications of determining the future wave climate is exemplified by means of the 100-year design wave, where the use of the present climate may result in under/over design of structures, since the lifespan of a structure includes the future wave climate period.

Modeled seasonality of glacial abrupt climate events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Flueckiger, Jacqueline [Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States); Environmental Physics, Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, ETH Zuerich, Zurich (Switzerland); Knutti, Reto [Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zuerich, Zurich (Switzerland); White, James W.C. [Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States); Renssen, Hans [Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

2008-11-15

Greenland ice cores, as well as many other paleo-archives from the northern hemisphere, recorded a series of 25 warm interstadial events, the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, during the last glacial period. We use the three-dimensional coupled global ocean-atmosphere-sea ice model ECBILT-CLIO and force it with freshwater input into the North Atlantic to simulate abrupt glacial climate events, which we use as analogues for D-O events. We focus our analysis on the Northern Hemisphere. The simulated events show large differences in the regional and seasonal distribution of the temperature and precipitation changes. While the temperature changes in high northern latitudes and in the North Atlantic region are dominated by winter changes, the largest temperature increases in most other land regions are seen in spring. Smallest changes over land are found during the summer months. Our model simulations also demonstrate that the temperature and precipitation change patterns for different intensifications of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation are not linear. The extent of the transitions varies, and local non-linearities influence the amplitude of the annual mean response as well as the response in different seasons. Implications for the interpretation of paleo-records are discussed. (orig.)

Climate Change and Tropical Total Lightning

Science.gov (United States)

Albrecht, R.; Petersen, W.; Buechler, D.; Goodman, S.; Blakeslee, R.; Christian, H.

2009-01-01

While global warming is regarded as a fact by many in the scientific community, its future impact remains a challenge to be determined and measured. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report (IPCC, 2007) shows inconclusive answers on global rainfall trends and general agreement on a future drier climate with increased global warming. The relationship between temperature, humidity and convection is not linear and is strongly dependent on regional scale features, such as topography and land cover. Furthermore, the relationship between convective lightning production (thunderstorms) and temperature is even more complicated, being subjected to the cloud dynamics and microphysics. Total lightning (intracloud and cloud-to-ground) monitoring is a relatively new field of observation. Global and tropical total lightning began to be more extensively measured by satellites in the mid 90s. In this scope, the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) onboard of the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) has been operational for over 11 years. Here we address total lightning trends observed by LIS from 1998 to 2008 in different temporal (annual and seasonal) and spatial (large and regional) scales. The observed 11-year trends are then associate to different predicted/hypothesized climate change scenarios.

A dampened land use change climate response towards the tropics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Molen, van der M.K.; Hurk, van den B.J.J.M.; Hazeleger, W.

2011-01-01

In climate simulations we find a pronounced meridional (equator to pole) gradient of climate response to land cover change. Climate response approaches zero in the tropics, and increases towards the poles. The meridional gradient in climate response to land cover change results from damping

Energy Design Guidelines for High Performance Schools: Tropical Island Climates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2004-11-01

The Energy Design Guidelines for High Performance Schools--Tropical Island Climates provides school boards, administrators, and design staff with guidance to help them make informed decisions about energy and environmental issues important to school systems and communities. These design guidelines outline high performance principles for the new or retrofit design of your K-12 school in tropical island climates. By incorporating energy improvements into their construction or renovation plans, schools can significantly reduce energy consumption and costs.

Diverging responses of tropical Andean biomes under future climate conditions.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carolina Tovar

Full Text Available Observations and projections for mountain regions show a strong tendency towards upslope displacement of their biomes under future climate conditions. Because of their climatic and topographic heterogeneity, a more complex response is expected for biodiversity hotspots such as tropical mountain regions. This study analyzes potential changes in the distribution of biomes in the Tropical Andes and identifies target areas for conservation. Biome distribution models were developed using logistic regressions. These models were then coupled to an ensemble of 8 global climate models to project future distribution of the Andean biomes and their uncertainties. We analysed projected changes in extent and elevational range and identified regions most prone to change. Our results show a heterogeneous response to climate change. Although the wetter biomes exhibit an upslope displacement of both the upper and the lower boundaries as expected, most dry biomes tend to show downslope expansion. Despite important losses being projected for several biomes, projections suggest that between 74.8% and 83.1% of the current total Tropical Andes will remain stable, depending on the emission scenario and time horizon. Between 3.3% and 7.6% of the study area is projected to change, mostly towards an increase in vertical structure. For the remaining area (13.1%-17.4%, there is no agreement between model projections. These results challenge the common believe that climate change will lead to an upslope displacement of biome boundaries in mountain regions. Instead, our models project diverging responses, including downslope expansion and large areas projected to remain stable. Lastly, a significant part of the area expected to change is already affected by land use changes, which has important implications for management. This, and the inclusion of a comprehensive uncertainty analysis, will help to inform conservation strategies in the Tropical Andes, and to guide similar

A Review of Heat Transfer in Terraced Houses of Tropical Climate

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Azzmi Norazura Mizal

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Heat is the process of energy circulation and replacement of air from hot to cold. In tropical climates, more heat is received because of the location of Malaysia of the equatorial line. Excessive heat in buildings causes discomfort to the occupants in tropical climate. Tropical rainforest climate receives higher solar radiation and terrestrial radiation reaching the building envelopes contributes to this problem. The design of the building should be more concern on reducing this heat. This paper provides a review of heat contribution in a terraced house indoor environment for tropical climate. A good comfortable home is part of the sustainable development agenda to improve the quality of life. Terraced houses are the most living quarters in mass living scheme for urban areas. The incoming solar energy from the sun into the building surface cannot be changed, therefore a consideration of passive building design need to be applied in terraced house design. Data collection gathered from this literature survey will assist to identify problems of discomfort occupant. This strategy would assist in improving the building industry in promoting sustainable development in Malaysia.

Effects of interannual climate variability on tropical tree cover

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Holmgren, M.; Hirota, M.; Nes, van E.H.; Scheffer, M.

2013-01-01

Climatic warming is substantially intensifying the global water cycle1 and is projected to increase rainfall variability2. Using satellite data, we show that higher climatic variability is associated with reduced tree cover in the wet tropics globally. In contrast, interannual variability in

Where are the tropical plants? A call for better inclusion of tropical plants in studies investigating and predicting the effects of climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kenneth J Feeley

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Tropical plant species are systematically underrepresented in large-scale analyses or synthesis looking at the potential effects of global climate change.  The reason being that we simply don’t know enough about the distributions and ecologies of most tropical plant species to predict their fate under climate change. This gaping hole in our knowledge is extremely worrisome given the high diversity of tropical plants, the crucial roles that they play in supporting global diversity and ecosystem function, and the elevated threats that climate change may pose to tropical species in general.  

Glacier monitoring and glacier-climate interactions in the tropical Andes: A review

Science.gov (United States)

Veettil, Bijeesh Kozhikkodan; Wang, Shanshan; Florêncio de Souza, Sergio; Bremer, Ulisses Franz; Simões, Jefferson Cardia

2017-08-01

In this review, we summarized the evolution of glacier monitoring in the tropical Andes during the last few decades, particularly after the development of remote sensing and photogrammetry. Advantages and limitations of glacier mapping, applied so far, in Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia are discussed in detail. Glacier parameters such as the equilibrium line altitude, snowline and mass balance were given special attention in understanding the complex cryosphere-climate interactions, particularly using remote sensing techniques. Glaciers in the inner and the outer tropics were considered separately based on the precipitation and temperature conditions within a new framework. The applicability of various methods to use glacier records to understand and reconstruct the tropical Andean climate between the Last Glacial Maximum (11,700 years ago) and the present is also explored in this paper. Results from various studies published recently were analyzed and we tried to understand the differences in the magnitudes of glacier responses towards the climatic perturbations in the inner tropics and the outer tropics. Inner tropical glaciers, particularly those in Venezuela and Colombia near the January Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), are more vulnerable to increase in temperature. Surface energy balance experiments show that outer tropical glaciers respond to precipitation variability very rapidly in comparison with the temperature variability, particularly when moving towards the subtropics. We also analyzed the gradients in glacier response to climate change from the Pacific coast towards the Amazon Basin as well as with the elevation. Based on the current trends synthesised from recent studies, it is hypothesized that the glaciers in the inner tropics and the southern wet outer tropics will disappear first as a response to global warming whereas glaciers in the northern wet outer tropics and dry outer tropics show resistance to warming trends due to

Why tropical forest lizards are vulnerable to climate warming

Science.gov (United States)

Huey, Raymond B.; Deutsch, Curtis A.; Tewksbury, Joshua J.; Vitt, Laurie J.; Hertz, Paul E.; Álvarez Pérez, Héctor J.; Garland, Theodore

2009-01-01

Biological impacts of climate warming are predicted to increase with latitude, paralleling increases in warming. However, the magnitude of impacts depends not only on the degree of warming but also on the number of species at risk, their physiological sensitivity to warming and their options for behavioural and physiological compensation. Lizards are useful for evaluating risks of warming because their thermal biology is well studied. We conducted macrophysiological analyses of diurnal lizards from diverse latitudes plus focal species analyses of Puerto Rican Anolis and Sphaerodactyus. Although tropical lowland lizards live in environments that are warm all year, macrophysiological analyses indicate that some tropical lineages (thermoconformers that live in forests) are active at low body temperature and are intolerant of warm temperatures. Focal species analyses show that some tropical forest lizards were already experiencing stressful body temperatures in summer when studied several decades ago. Simulations suggest that warming will not only further depress their physiological performance in summer, but will also enable warm-adapted, open-habitat competitors and predators to invade forests. Forest lizards are key components of tropical ecosystems, but appear vulnerable to the cascading physiological and ecological effects of climate warming, even though rates of tropical warming may be relatively low. PMID:19324762

Tropical forest policies for the global climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Groot, W.T.; Kamminga, E.M.

1995-01-01

A summary is given of the approach and findings of the NRP project 'Local Actors and Global Tree Cover Policies'. The aim of this project was to identify the most effective and efficient options for global climate policies focusing on the tropical forest. Tropical deforestation is a process with very complex and variable causes. In the project's conclusions, therefore, much care has been given to arrive at a coherent image of what really counts most in the myriad of factors, actors, policy levels and policy options. 5 refs

Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Xiaohui Feng; María Uriarte; Grizelle González; Sasha Reed; Jill Thompson; Jess K. Zimmerman; Lora Murphy

2018-01-01

Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very...

Tropical forest soil microbes and climate warming: An Andean-Amazon gradient and `SWELTR'

Science.gov (United States)

Nottingham, A.; Turner, B. L.; Fierer, N.; Whitaker, J.; Ostle, N. J.; McNamara, N. P.; Bardgett, R.; Silman, M.; Bååth, E.; Salinas, N.; Meir, P.

2017-12-01

Climate warming predicted for the tropics in the coming century will result in average temperatures under which no closed canopy forest exists today. There is, therefore, great uncertainty associated with the direction and magnitude of feedbacks between tropical forests and our future climate - especially relating to the response of soil microbes and the third of global soil carbon contained in tropical forests. While warming experiments are yet to be performed in tropical forests, natural temperature gradients are powerful tools to investigate temperature effects on soil microbes. Here we draw on studies from a 3.5 km elevation gradient - and 20oC mean annual temperature gradient - in Peruvian tropical forest, to investigate how temperature affects the structure of microbial communities, microbial metabolism, enzymatic activity and soil organic matter cycling. With decreased elevation, soil microbial diversity increased and community composition shifted, from taxa associated with oligotrophic towards copiotrophic traits. A key role for temperature in shaping these patterns was demonstrated by a soil translocation experiment, where temperature-manipulation altered the relative abundance of specific taxa. Functional implications of these community composition shifts were indicated by changes in enzyme activities, the temperature sensitivity of bacterial and fungal growth rates, and the presence of temperature-adapted iso-enzymes at different elevations. Studies from a Peruvian elevation transect indicated that soil microbial communities are adapted to long-term (differences with elevation) and short-term (translocation responses) temperature changes. These findings indicate the potential for adaptation of soil microbes in tropical soils to future climate warming. However, in order to evaluate the sensitivity of these processes to climate warming in lowland forests, in situ experimentation is required. Finally, we describe SWELTR (Soil Warming Experiment in Lowland

Abrupt Climate Change and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: sensitivity and non-linear response to Arctic/sub-Arctic freshwater pulses. Collaborative research. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hill, Christopher [MIT (Massachusetts Inst. of Technology), Cambridge, MA (United States)

2015-06-15

This project investigated possible mechanisms by which melt-water pulses can induce abrupt change in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) magnitude. AMOC magnitude is an important ingredient in present day climate. Previous studies have hypothesized abrupt reduction in AMOC magnitude in response to influxes of glacial melt water into the North Atlantic. Notable fresh-water influxes are associated with the terminus of the last ice age. During this period large volumes of melt water accumulated behind retreating ice sheets and subsequently drained rapidly when the ice weakened sufficiently. Rapid draining of glacial lakes into the North Atlantic is a possible origin of a number of paleo-record abrupt climate shifts. These include the Younger-Dryas cooling event and the 8,200 year cooling event. The studies undertaken focused on whether the mechanistic sequence by which glacial melt-water impacts AMOC, which then impacts Northern Hemisphere global mean surface temperature, is dynamically plausible. The work has implications for better understanding past climate stability. The work also has relevance for today’s environment, in which high-latitude ice melting in Greenland appears to be driving fresh water outflows at an accelerating pace.

Early warning signals of abrupt temperature change in different regions of China over the past 50 years

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tong Ji-Long; Wu Hao; Hou Wei; He Wen-Ping; Zhou Jie

2014-01-01

In this paper, the early warning signals of abrupt temperature change in different regions of China are investigated. Seven regions are divided on the basis of different climate temperature patterns, obtained through the rotated empirical orthogonal function, and the signal-to-noise temperature ratios for each region are then calculated. Based on the concept of critical slowing down, the temperature data that contain noise in the different regions of China are preprocessed to study the early warning signals of abrupt climate change. First, the Mann–Kendall method is used to identify the instant of abrupt climate change in the temperature data. Second, autocorrelation coefficients that can identify critical slowing down are calculated. The results show that the critical slowing down phenomenon appeared in temperature data about 5–10 years before abrupt climate change occurred, which indicates that the critical slowing down phenomenon is a possible early warning signal for abrupt climate change, and that noise has less influence on the detection results of the early warning signals. Accordingly, this demonstrates that the model is reliable in identifying the early warning signals of abrupt climate change based on detecting the critical slowing down phenomenon, which provides an experimental basis for the actual application of the method. (geophysics, astronomy, and astrophysics)

A Generalized Stability Analysis of the AMOC in Earth System Models: Implication for Decadal Variability and Abrupt Climate Change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fedorov, Alexey V. [Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States)

2015-01-14

The central goal of this research project was to understand the mechanisms of decadal and multi-decadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as related to climate variability and abrupt climate change within a hierarchy of climate models ranging from realistic ocean models to comprehensive Earth system models. Generalized Stability Analysis, a method that quantifies the transient and asymptotic growth of perturbations in the system, is one of the main approaches used throughout this project. The topics we have explored range from physical mechanisms that control AMOC variability to the factors that determine AMOC predictability in the Earth system models, to the stability and variability of the AMOC in past climates.

Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Xiaohui; Uriarte, María; González, Grizelle; Reed, Sasha C.; Thompson, Jill; Zimmerman, Jess K.; Murphy, Lora

2018-01-01

Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very limited. Efforts to model climate change impacts on carbon fluxes in tropical forests have not reached a consensus. Here we use the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) to predict carbon fluxes of a Puerto Rican tropical forest under realistic climate change scenarios. We parameterized ED2 with species-specific tree physiological data using the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer workflow and projected the fate of this ecosystem under five future climate scenarios. The model successfully captured inter-annual variability in the dynamics of this tropical forest. Model predictions closely followed observed values across a wide range of metrics including above-ground biomass, tree diameter growth, tree size class distributions, and leaf area index. Under a future warming and drying climate scenario, the model predicted reductions in carbon storage and tree growth, together with large shifts in forest community composition and structure. Such rapid changes in climate led the forest to transition from a sink to a source of carbon. Growth respiration and root allocation parameters were responsible for the highest fraction of predictive uncertainty in modeled biomass, highlighting the need to target these processes in future data collection. Our study is the first effort to rely on Bayesian model calibration and synthesis to elucidate the key physiological parameters that drive uncertainty in tropical forests responses to climatic change. We propose a new path forward for model-data synthesis that can substantially reduce uncertainty in our ability to model tropical forest responses to future climate.

Influence of tropical atmospheric variability on Weddell Sea deep water convection

Science.gov (United States)

Kleppin, H.

2016-02-01

Climate reconstructions from ice core records in Greenland and Antarctica have revealed a series of abrupt climate transitions, showing a distinct relationship between northern and southern hemisphere climate during the last glacial period. The recent ice core records from West Antarctica (WAIS) point towards an atmospheric teleconnection as a possible trigger for the interhemispheric climate variability (Markle et al., 2015). An unforced simulation of the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) reveals Greenland warming and cooling events, caused by stochastic atmospheric forcing, that resemble Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles in pattern and magnitude (Kleppin et al., 2015). Anti-phased temperature changes in the Southern Hemisphere are small in magnitude and have a spatially varying pattern. We argue that both north and south high latitude climate variability is triggered by changes in tropical atmospheric deep convection in the western tropical Pacific. The atmospheric wave guide provides a fast communication pathway connecting the deep tropics and the polar regions. In the Southern Hemisphere this is manifested as a distinct pressure pattern over West Antarctica. These altered atmospheric surface conditions over the convective region can lead to destabilization of the water column and thus to convective overturning in the Weddell Sea. However, opposed to what is seen in the Northern Hemisphere no centennial scale variability can establish, due to the absence of a strong feedback mechanism between ocean, atmosphere and sea ice. Kleppin, H., Jochum, M., Otto-Bliesner, B., Shields, C. A., & Yeager, S. (2015). Stochastic Atmospheric Forcing as a Cause of Greenland Climate Transitions. Journal of Climate, (2015). Markle, B. and Coauthors (2015, April). Atmospheric teleconnections between the tropics and high southern latitudes during millennial climate change. In EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts (Vol. 17, p. 2569).

Staying cool: preadaptation to temperate climates required for colonising tropical alpine-like environments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Berit Gehrke

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Plant species tend to retain their ancestral ecology, responding to temporal, geographic and climatic changes by tracking suitable habitats rather than adapting to novel conditions. Nevertheless, transitions into different environments or biomes still seem to be common. Especially intriguing are the tropical alpine-like areas found on only the highest mountainous regions surrounded by tropical environments. Tropical mountains are hotspots of biodiversity, often with striking degrees of endemism at higher elevations. On these mountains, steep environmental gradients and high habitat heterogeneity within small spaces coincide with astounding species diversity of great conservation value. The analysis presented here shows that the importance of in situ speciation in tropical alpine-like areas has been underestimated. Additionally and contrary to widely held opinion, the impact of dispersal from other regions with alpine-like environments is relatively minor compared to that of immigration from other biomes with a temperate (but not alpine-like climate. This suggests that establishment in tropical alpine-like regions is favoured by preadaptation to a temperate, especially aseasonal, freezing regime such as the cool temperate climate regions in the Tropics. Furthermore, emigration out of an alpine-like environment is generally rare, suggesting that alpine-like environments – at least tropical ones – are species sinks.

Detecting Climate Variability in Tropical Rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Berg, W.

2004-05-01

A number of satellite and merged satellite/in-situ rainfall products have been developed extending as far back as 1979. While the availability of global rainfall data covering over two decades and encompassing two major El Niño events is a valuable resource for a variety of climate studies, significant differences exist between many of these products. Unfortunately, issues such as availability often determine the use of a product for a given application instead of an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of the various products. Significant efforts have been made to address the impact of sparse sampling by satellite sensors of variable rainfall processes by merging various satellite and in-situ rainfall products. These combine high spatial and temporal frequency satellite infrared data with higher quality passive microwave observations and rain gauge observations. Combining such an approach with spatial and temporal averaging of the data can reduce the large random errors inherent in satellite rainfall estimates to very small levels. Unfortunately, systematic biases can and do result in artificial climate signals due to the underconstrained nature of the rainfall retrieval problem. Because all satellite retrieval algorithms make assumptions regarding the cloud structure and microphysical properties, systematic changes in these assumed parameters between regions and/or times results in regional and/or temporal biases in the rainfall estimates. These biases tend to be relatively small compared to random errors in the retrieval, however, when random errors are reduced through spatial and temporal averaging for climate applications, they become the dominant source of error. Whether or not such biases impact the results for climate studies is very much dependent on the application. For example, all of the existing satellite rainfall products capture the increased rainfall in the east Pacific associated with El Niño, however, the resulting tropical response to

Masked millennial-scale climate variations in South West Africa during the last glaciation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. Hessler

2012-04-01

Full Text Available To address the connection between tropical African vegetation development and high-latitude climate change we present a high-resolution pollen record from ODP Site 1078 (off Angola covering the period 50–10 ka BP. Although several tropical African vegetation and climate reconstructions indicate an impact of Heinrich Stadials (HSs in Southern Hemisphere Africa, our vegetation record shows no response. Model simulations conducted with an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity including a dynamical vegetation component provide one possible explanation. Because both precipitation and evaporation increased during HSs and their effects nearly cancelled each other, there was a negligible change in moisture supply. Consequently, the resulting climatic response to HSs might have been too weak to noticeably affect the vegetation composition in the study area. Our results also show that the response to HSs in southern tropical Africa neither equals nor mirrors the response to abrupt climate change in northern Africa.

Climate change, allergy and asthma, and the role of tropical forests.

Science.gov (United States)

D'Amato, Gennaro; Vitale, Carolina; Rosario, Nelson; Neto, Herberto Josè Chong; Chong-Silva, Deborah Carla; Mendonça, Francisco; Perini, Josè; Landgraf, Loraine; Solé, Dirceu; Sánchez-Borges, Mario; Ansotegui, Ignacio; D'Amato, Maria

2017-01-01

Tropical forests cover less than 10 per cent of all land area (1.8 × 107 km 2 ) and over half of the tropical-forest area (1.1 × 107 Km 2 ) is represented by humid tropical forests (also called tropical rainforests). The Amazon basin contains the largest rainforest on Earth, almost 5.8 million km 2 , and occupies about 40% of South America; more than 60% of the basin is located in Brazil and the rest in Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, French Guiana, Guyana, Peru, Suriname and Venezuela. Over the past decade the positive role of tropical rainforests in capturing large amounts of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) has been demonstrated. In response to the increase in atmospheric CO 2 concentration, tropical forests act as a global carbon sink. Accumulation of carbon in the tropical terrestrial biosphere strongly contributes to slowing the rate of increase of CO 2 into the atmosphere, thus resulting in the reduction of greenhouse gas effect. Tropical rainforests have been estimated to account for 32-36% of terrestrial Net Primary Productivity (NPP) that is the difference between total forest photosynthesis and plant respiration. Tropical rainforests have been acting as a strong carbon sink in this way for decades. However, over the past years, increased concentrations of greenhouse gases, and especially CO 2 , in the atmosphere have significantly affected the net carbon balance of tropical rainforests, and have warmed the planet substantially driving climate changes through more severe and prolonged heat waves, variability in temperature, increased air pollution, forest fires, droughts, and floods. The role of tropical forests in mitigating climate change is therefore critical. Over the past 30 years almost 600,000 km 2 have been deforested in Brazil alone due to the rapid development of Amazonia, this is the reason why currently the region is one of the 'hotspots' of global environmental change on the planet. Deforestation represents the second largest

Abrupt warming of the Red Sea

KAUST Repository

Raitsos, D. E.

2011-07-19

Coral reef ecosystems, often referred to as “marine rainforests,” concentrate the most diverse life in the oceans. Red Sea reef dwellers are adapted in a very warm environment, fact that makes them vulnerable to further and rapid warming. The detection and understanding of abrupt temperature changes is an important task, as ecosystems have more chances to adapt in a slowly rather than in a rapid changing environment. Using satellite derived sea surface and ground based air temperatures, it is shown that the Red Sea is going through an intense warming initiated in the mid-90s, with evidence for an abrupt increase after 1994 (0.7°C difference pre and post the shift). The air temperature is found to be a key parameter that influences the Red Sea marine temperature. The comparisons with Northern Hemisphere temperatures revealed that the observed warming is part of global climate change trends. The hitherto results also raise additional questions regarding other broader climatic impacts over the area.

Abrupt warming of the Red Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Raitsos, D. E.; Hoteit, I.; Prihartato, P. K.; Chronis, T.; Triantafyllou, G.; Abualnaja, Y.

2011-07-01

Coral reef ecosystems, often referred to as “marine rainforests,” concentrate the most diverse life in the oceans. Red Sea reef dwellers are adapted in a very warm environment, fact that makes them vulnerable to further and rapid warming. The detection and understanding of abrupt temperature changes is an important task, as ecosystems have more chances to adapt in a slowly rather than in a rapid changing environment. Using satellite derived sea surface and ground based air temperatures, it is shown that the Red Sea is going through an intense warming initiated in the mid-90s, with evidence for an abrupt increase after 1994 (0.7°C difference pre and post the shift). The air temperature is found to be a key parameter that influences the Red Sea marine temperature. The comparisons with Northern Hemisphere temperatures revealed that the observed warming is part of global climate change trends. The hitherto results also raise additional questions regarding other broader climatic impacts over the area.

Spatial patterns and recent trends in the climate of tropical rainforest regions.

Science.gov (United States)

Malhi, Yadvinder; Wright, James

2004-03-29

We present an analysis of the mean climate and climatic trends of tropical rainforest regions over the period 1960-1998, with the aid of explicit maps of forest cover and climatological databases. Until the mid-1970s most regions showed little trend in temperature, and the western Amazon experienced a net cooling probably associated with an interdecadal oscillation. Since the mid-1970s, all tropical rainforest regions have experienced a strong warming at a mean rate of 0.26 +/- 0.05 degrees C per decade, in synchrony with a global rise in temperature that has been attributed to the anthropogenic greenhouse effect. Over the study period, precipitation appears to have declined in tropical rainforest regions at a rate of 1.0 +/- 0.8% per decade (p Africa (at 3-4% per decade), declining marginally in tropical Asia and showing no significant trend in Amazonia. There is no evidence so far of a decline in precipitation in eastern Amazonia, a region thought vulnerable to climate-change-induced drying. The strong drying trend in Africa suggests that this should be a priority study region for understanding the impact of drought on tropical rainforests. We develop and use a dry-season index to study variations in the length and intensity of the dry season. Only African and Indian tropical rainforests appear to have seen a significant increase in dry-season intensity. In terms of interannual variability, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the primary driver of temperature variations across the tropics and of precipitation fluctuations for large areas of the Americas and southeast Asia. The relation between ENSO and tropical African precipitation appears less direct.

Predicting pan-tropical climate change induced forest stock gains and losses-implications for REDD

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gumpenberger, Marlies; Vohland, Katrin; Heyder, Ursula; Poulter, Benjamin; Rammig, Anja; Popp, Alexander; Cramer, Wolfgang; Macey, Kirsten

2010-01-01

Deforestation is a major threat to tropical forests worldwide, contributing up to one-fifth of global carbon emissions into the atmosphere. Despite protection efforts, deforestation of tropical forests has continued in recent years. Providing incentives to reducing deforestation has been proposed in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Bali negotiations in 2007 to decelerate emissions from deforestation (REDD-reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation). A number of methodological issues such as ensuring permanence, establishing reference emissions levels that do not reward business-as-usual and having a measuring, reporting and verification system in place are essential elements in implementing successful REDD schemes. To assess the combined impacts of climate and land-use change on tropical forest carbon stocks in the 21st century, we use a dynamic global vegetation model (LPJ DGVM) driven by five different climate change projections under a given greenhouse gas emission scenario (SRES A2) and two contrasting land-use change scenarios. We find that even under a complete stop of deforestation after the period of the Kyoto Protocol (post-2012) some countries may continue to lose carbon stocks due to climate change. Especially at risk is tropical Latin America, although the presence and magnitude of the risk depends on the climate change scenario. By contrast, strong protection of forests could increase carbon uptake in many tropical countries, due to CO 2 fertilization effects, even under altered climate regimes.

Northern tropical Atlantic climate since late Medieval times from Northern Caribbean coral geochemistry

Science.gov (United States)

Kilbourne, K. H.; Xu, Y.

2015-12-01

Paleoclimate reconstructions of different global climate modes over the last 1000 years provide the basis for testing the relative roles of forced and unforced variability climate system, which can help us improve projections of future climate change. The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) has been characterized by a combination of persistent La Niña-like conditions, a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (+NAO), and increased Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The northern tropical Atlantic is sensitive to each of these climate patterns, but not all of them have the same regional fingerprint in the modern northern tropical Atlantic. The relative influence of different processes related to these climate patterns can help us better understand regional responses to climate change. The regional response of the northern tropical Atlantic is important because the tropical Atlantic Ocean is a large source of heat and moisture to the global climate system that can feedback onto global climate patterns. This study presents new coral Sr/Ca and δ18O data from the northern tropical Atlantic (Anegada, British Virgin Islands). Comparison of the sub-fossil corals that grew during the 13th and 14th Centuries with modern coral geochemical data from this site indicates relatively cooler mean conditions with a decrease in the oxygen isotopic composition of the water consistent with lower salinities. Similar average annual cycles between modern and sub-fossil Sr/Ca indicate no change in seasonal temperature range, but a difference in the relative phasing of the δ18O seasonal cycles indicates that the fresher mean conditions may be due to a more northerly position of the regional salinity front. This localized response is consistent with some, but not all of the expected regional responses to a La Niña-like state, a +NAO state, and increased AMOC. Understanding these differences can provide insight into the relative importance of advection versus surface fluxes for

AGROECOLOGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SEMIARID TROPICS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guillermo Gamarra-Rojas

2017-04-01

Full Text Available This article makes a theoretical and, to a certain extent, propositional reflection on the conceptions, assumptions and evidences of climate change in the tropics, with emphasis on the Brazilian semiarid region. The contributions of agriculture to climate change are presented and the impacts of climate change on family agriculture in the semiarid region are analyzed. Evidence of mitigation and adaptation in agroecological systems of the semiarid region is presented and an outline of an agenda of the sector based on the commitments assumed by the country and the needs of mitigation and adaptation is provided.

Climate change in Australian tropical rainforests: an impending environmental catastrophe.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Stephen E; Bolitho, Elizabeth E; Fox, Samantha

2003-01-01

It is now widely accepted that global climate change is affecting many ecosystems around the globe and that its impact is increasing rapidly. Many studies predict that impacts will consist largely of shifts in latitudinal and altitudinal distributions. However, we demonstrate that the impacts of global climate change in the tropical rainforests of northeastern Australia have the potential to result in many extinctions. We develop bioclimatic models of spatial distribution for the regionally endemic rainforest vertebrates and use these models to predict the effects of climate warming on species distributions. Increasing temperature is predicted to result in significant reduction or complete loss of the core environment of all regionally endemic vertebrates. Extinction rates caused by the complete loss of core environments are likely to be severe, nonlinear, with losses increasing rapidly beyond an increase of 2 degrees C, and compounded by other climate-related impacts. Mountain ecosystems around the world, such as the Australian Wet Tropics bioregion, are very diverse, often with high levels of restricted endemism, and are therefore important areas of biodiversity. The results presented here suggest that these systems are severely threatened by climate change. PMID:14561301

Climate-mediated nitrogen and carbon dynamics in a tropical watershed

Science.gov (United States)

Ballantyne, A. P.; Baker, P. A.; Fritz, S. C.; Poulter, B.

2011-06-01

Climate variability affects the capacity of the biosphere to assimilate and store important elements, such as nitrogen and carbon. Here we present biogeochemical evidence from the sediments of tropical Lake Titicaca indicating that large hydrologic changes in response to global glacial cycles during the Quaternary were accompanied by major shifts in ecosystem state. During prolonged glacial intervals, lake level was high and the lake was in a stable nitrogen-limited state. In contrast, during warm dry interglacials lake level fell and rates of nitrogen concentrations increased by a factor of 4-12, resulting in a fivefold to 24-fold increase in organic carbon concentrations in the sediments due to increased primary productivity. Observed periods of increased primary productivity were also associated with an apparent increase in denitrification. However, the net accumulation of nitrogen during interglacial intervals indicates that increased nitrogen supply exceeded nitrogen losses due to denitrification, thereby causing increases in primary productivity. Although primary productivity in tropical ecosystems, especially freshwater ecosystems, tends to be nitrogen limited, our results indicate that climate variability may lead to changes in nitrogen availability and thus changes in primary productivity. Therefore some tropical ecosystems may shift between a stable state of nitrogen limitation and a stable state of nitrogen saturation in response to varying climatic conditions.

Wet tropical climate in SE Tibet during the Late Eocene.

Science.gov (United States)

Sorrel, Philippe; Eymard, Ines; Leloup, Philippe-Herve; Maheo, Gweltaz; Olivier, Nicolas; Sterb, Mary; Gourbet, Loraine; Wang, Guocan; Jing, Wu; Lu, Haijian; Li, Haibing; Yadong, Xu; Zhang, Kexin; Cao, Kai; Chevalier, Marie-Luce; Replumaz, Anne

2017-08-10

Cenozoic climate cooling at the advent of the Eocene-Oligocene transition (EOT), ~33.7 Ma ago, was stamped in the ocean by a series of climatic events albeit the impact of this global climatic transition on terrestrial environments is still fragmentary. Yet archival constraints on Late Eocene atmospheric circulation are scarce in (tropical) monsoonal Asia, and the paucity of terrestrial records hampers a meaningful comparison of the long-term climatic trends between oceanic and continental realms. Here we report new sedimentological data from the Jianchuan basin (SE Tibet) arguing for wetter climatic conditions in monsoonal Asia at ~35.5 Ma almost coevally to the aridification recognized northwards in the Xining basin. We show that the occurrence of flash-flood events in semi-arid to sub-humid palustrine-sublacustrine settings preceded the development of coal-bearing deposits in swampy-like environments, thus paving the way to a more humid climate in SE Tibet ahead from the EOT. We suggest that this moisture redistribution possibly reflects more northern and intensified ITCZ-induced tropical rainfall in monsoonal Asia around 35.5 Ma, in accordance with recent sea-surface temperature reconstructions from equatorial oceanic records. Our findings thus highlight an important period of climatic upheaval in terrestrial Asian environments ~2-4 millions years prior to the EOT.

Climate seasonality limits leaf carbon assimilation and wood productivity in tropical forests

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wagner, Fabien H.; Hérault, Bruno; Bonal, Damien; Stahl, Clément; Anderson, Liana O.; Baker, Timothy R.; Becker, Gabriel Sebastian; Beeckman, Hans; Boanerges Souza, Danilo; Botosso, Paulo Cesar; Bowman, David M.J.S.; Bräuning, Achim; Brede, Benjamin; Brown, Foster Irving; Camarero, Jesus Julio; Camargo, Plínio Barbosa; Cardoso, Fernanda C.G.; Carvalho, Fabrício Alvim; Castro, Wendeson; Chagas, Rubens Koloski; Chave, Jérome; Chidumayo, Emmanuel N.; Clark, Deborah A.; Costa, Flavia Regina Capellotto; Couralet, Camille; Silva Mauricio, Da Paulo Henrique; Dalitz, Helmut; Castro, De Vinicius Resende; Freitas Milani, De Jaçanan Eloisa; Oliveira, De Edilson Consuelo; Souza Arruda, De Luciano; Devineau, Jean-Louis; Drew, David M.; Dünisch, Oliver; Durigan, Giselda; Elifuraha, Elisha; Fedele, Marcio; Ferreira Fedele, Ligia; Figueiredo Filho, Afonso; Finger, César Augusto Guimarães; Franco, Augusto César; Freitas Júnior, João Lima; Galvão, Franklin; Gebrekirstos, Aster; Gliniars, Robert; Lima De Alencastro Graça, Paulo Maurício; Griffiths, Anthony D.; Grogan, James; Guan, Kaiyu; Homeier, Jürgen; Kanieski, Maria Raquel; Kho, Lip Khoon; Koenig, Jennifer; Kohler, Sintia Valerio; Krepkowski, Julia; Lemos-filho, José Pires; Lieberman, Diana; Lieberman, Milton Eugene; Lisi, Claudio Sergio; Longhi Santos, Tomaz; López Ayala, José Luis; Maeda, Eduardo Eijji; Malhi, Yadvinder; Maria, Vivian R.B.; Marques, Marcia C.M.; Marques, Renato; Maza Chamba, Hector; Mbwambo, Lawrence; Melgaço, Karina Liana Lisboa; Mendivelso, Hooz Angela; Murphy, Brett P.; O'Brien, Joseph J.; Oberbauer, Steven F.; Okada, Naoki; Pélissier, Raphaël; Prior, Lynda D.; Roig, Fidel Alejandro; Ross, Michael; Rossatto, Davi Rodrigo; Rossi, Vivien; Rowland, Lucy; Rutishauser, Ervan; Santana, Hellen; Schulze, Mark; Selhorst, Diogo; Silva, Williamar Rodrigues; Silveira, Marcos; Spannl, Susanne; Swaine, Michael D.; Toledo, José Julio; Toledo, Marcos Miranda; Toledo, Marisol; Toma, Takeshi; Tomazello Filho, Mario; Valdez Hernández, Juan Ignacio; Verbesselt, Jan; Vieira, Simone Aparecida; Vincent, Grégoire; Volkmer De Castilho, Carolina; Volland, Franziska; Worbes, Martin; Zanon, Magda Lea Bolzan; Aragão, Luiz E.O.C.

2016-01-01

The seasonal climate drivers of the carbon cycle in tropical forests remain poorly known, although these forests account for more carbon assimilation and storage than any other terrestrial ecosystem. Based on a unique combination of seasonal pan-tropical data sets from 89 experimental sites (68

A glacial record of the last termination in the southern tropical Andes

Science.gov (United States)

Bromley, G. R.; Schaefer, J. M.; Winckler, G.; Hall, B. L.; Todd, C. E.; Rademaker, K.

2012-12-01

The last glacial termination represents the highest-magnitude climate change of the last hundred thousand years. Accurate resolution of events during the termination is vital to our understanding of how - and why - the global climate system transitions from a full glacial to interglacial state, as well as the causes of abrupt climate change during the late-glacial period. Palaeoclimate data from low latitudes, though relatively sparse, are particularly valuable, since the tropical ocean and atmosphere likely play a crucial role in Quaternary climate variability on all timescales. We present a detailed glacier record from the Andes of southern Peru (15°S), resolved with 3He surface-exposure dating and spanning the last glacial maximum and termination. Our dataset reveals that glaciers in this part of the Southern Hemisphere maintained their Late Pleistocene maxima for several millennia and that the onset of the termination may have occurred relatively late. Deglaciation was punctuated by two major advances during the late-glacial period. Following the glacial-interglacial transition, our preliminary chronologic and morphologic data suggest that, in contrast to the Northern Hemisphere, glaciers in the southern tropical Andes have experienced overall shrinkage during the Holocene.

Tropical interannual variability in a global coupled GCM: Sensitivity to mean climate state

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moore, A.M. [Bureau of Meterology Research Centre, Melbourne, Victoria (Australia)

1995-04-01

A global coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice general circulation model is used to study interannual variability in the Tropics. Flux correction is used to control the mean climate of the coupled system, and in one configuration of the coupled model, interannual variability in the tropical Pacific is dominated by westward moving anomalies. Through a series of experiments in which the equatorial ocean wave speeds and ocean-atmosphere coupling strength are varied, it is demonstrated that these westward moving disturbances are probably some manifestation of what Neelin describes as an {open_quotes}SST mode.{close_quotes} By modifying the flux correction procedure, the mean climate of the coupled model can be changed. A fairly modest change in the mean climate is all that is required to excite eastward moving anomalies in place of the westward moving SST modes found previously. The apparent sensitivity of the nature of tropical interannual variability to the mean climate state in a coupled general circulation model such as that used here suggests that caution is advisable if we try to use such models to answer questions relating to changes in ENSO-like variability associated with global climate change. 41 refs., 23 figs., 1 tab.

Reversal of Increasing Tropical Ocean Hypoxia Trends With Sustained Climate Warming

Science.gov (United States)

Fu, Weiwei; Primeau, Francois; Keith Moore, J.; Lindsay, Keith; Randerson, James T.

2018-04-01

Dissolved oxygen (O2) is essential for the survival of marine animals. Climate change impacts on future oxygen distributions could modify species biogeography, trophic interactions, biodiversity, and biogeochemistry. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models predict a decreasing trend in marine O2 over the 21st century. Here we show that this increasing hypoxia trend reverses in the tropics after 2100 in the Community Earth System Model forced by atmospheric CO2 from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and Extended Concentration Pathway 8.5. In tropical intermediate waters between 200 and 1,000 m, the model predicts a steady decline of O2 and an expansion of oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) during the 21st century. By 2150, however, the trend reverses with oxygen concentration increasing and OMZ volume shrinking through 2300. A novel five-box model approach in conjunction with output from the full Earth system model is used to separate the contributions of biological and physical processes to the trends in tropical oxygen. The tropical O2 recovery is caused mainly by reductions in tropical biological export, coupled with a modest increase in ventilation after 2200. The time-evolving oxygen distribution impacts marine nitrogen cycling, with potentially important climate feedbacks.

Hygroscopical behaviour of basic electrodes in a tropical humid climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Valencia, E.; Galeano, N.J.

1993-01-01

The study of the wetting kynetics of basic electrodes in a tropical humid climate is very important since the water contained in them is the main source for the atomic hydrogen absorbed by the fused metal during electric arc welding. It is also the origin of multiple defects in the added metal. A calculating method is established for evaluating the kynetics of wetness incorporation to the coating of basic electrodes exposed to a humid tropical climate. The method is based on the Fick's diffusion equation for both adequate system geometry and boundary conditions, which allows the evaluation of the effective diffusion coefficient and critical times of exposure to the different environments, along with the packing and storage conditions of electrodes. (Author)

A Collaborative Proposal: Simulating and Understanding Abrupt Climate-Ecosystem Changes During Holocene with NCAR-CCSM3.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhengyu Liu, Bette Otto-Bliesner

2013-02-01

We have made significant progress in our proposed work in the last 4 years (3 years plus 1 year of no cost extension). In anticipation of the next phase of study, we have spent time on the abrupt changes since the last glacial maximum. First, we have performed further model-data comparison based on our baseline TRACE-21 simulation and made important progress towards the understanding of several major climate transitions. Second, we have made a significant effort in processing the model output of TRACE-21 and have put this output on a website for access by the community. Third, we have completed many additional sensitivity experiments. In addition, we have organized synthesis workshops to facilitate and promote transient model-data comparison for the international community. Finally, we have identified new areas of interest for Holocene climate changes.

Climate-driven shifts in continental net primary production implicated as a driver of a recent abrupt increase in the land carbon sink

Science.gov (United States)

Buermann, Wolfgang; Beaulieu, Claudie; Parida, Bikash; Medvigy, David; Collatz, George J.; Sheffield, Justin; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

2016-03-01

The world's ocean and land ecosystems act as sinks for anthropogenic CO2, and over the last half century their combined sink strength grew steadily with increasing CO2 emissions. Recent analyses of the global carbon budget, however, have uncovered an abrupt, substantial ( ˜ 1 PgC yr-1) and sustained increase in the land sink in the late 1980s whose origin remains unclear. In the absence of this prominent shift in the land sink, increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations since the late 1980s would have been ˜ 30 % larger than observed (or ˜ 12 ppm above current levels). Global data analyses are limited in regards to attributing causes to changes in the land sink because different regions are likely responding to different drivers. Here, we address this challenge by using terrestrial biosphere models constrained by observations to determine if there is independent evidence for the abrupt strengthening of the land sink. We find that net primary production significantly increased in the late 1980s (more so than heterotrophic respiration), consistent with the inferred increase in the global land sink, and that large-scale climate anomalies are responsible for this shift. We identify two key regions in which climatic constraints on plant growth have eased: northern Eurasia experienced warming, and northern Africa received increased precipitation. Whether these changes in continental climates are connected is uncertain, but North Atlantic climate variability is important. Our findings suggest that improved understanding of climate variability in the North Atlantic may be essential for more credible projections of the land sink under climate change.

Detecting abrupt dynamic change based on changes in the fractal properties of spatial images

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Qunqun; He, Wenping; Gu, Bin; Jiang, Yundi

2017-10-01

Many abrupt climate change events often cannot be detected timely by conventional abrupt detection methods until a few years after these events have occurred. The reason for this lag in detection is that abundant and long-term observational data are required for accurate abrupt change detection by these methods, especially for the detection of a regime shift. So, these methods cannot help us understand and forecast the evolution of the climate system in a timely manner. Obviously, spatial images, generated by a coupled spatiotemporal dynamical model, contain more information about a dynamic system than a single time series, and we find that spatial images show the fractal properties. The fractal properties of spatial images can be quantitatively characterized by the Hurst exponent, which can be estimated by two-dimensional detrended fluctuation analysis (TD-DFA). Based on this, TD-DFA is used to detect an abrupt dynamic change of a coupled spatiotemporal model. The results show that the TD-DFA method can effectively detect abrupt parameter changes in the coupled model by monitoring the changing in the fractal properties of spatial images. The present method provides a new way for abrupt dynamic change detection, which can achieve timely and efficient abrupt change detection results.

Coral Records of 20th Century Central Tropical Pacific SST and Salinity: Signatures of Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Nurhati, I. S.; Cobb, K.; Di Lorenzo, E.

2011-12-01

Accurate forecasts of regional climate changes in many regions of the world largely depend on quantifying anthropogenic trends in tropical Pacific climate against its rich background of interannual to decadal-scale climate variability. However, the strong natural climate variability combined with limited instrumental climate datasets have obscured potential anthropogenic climate signals in the region. Here, we present coral-based sea-surface temperature (SST) and salinity proxy records over the 20th century (1898-1998) from the central tropical Pacific - a region sensitive to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) whose variability strongly impacts the global climate. The SST and salinity proxy records are reconstructed via coral Sr/Ca and the oxygen isotopic composition of seawater (δ18Osw), respectively. On interannual (2-7yr) timescales, the SST proxy record tracks both eastern- and central-Pacific flavors of ENSO variability (R=0.65 and R=0.67, respectively). Interannual-scale salinity variability in our coral record highlights profound differences in precipitation and ocean advections during the two flavors of ENSO. On decadal (8yr-lowpassed) timescales, the central tropical Pacific SST and salinity proxy records are controlled by different sets of dynamics linked to the leading climate modes of North Pacific climate variability. Decadal-scale central tropical Pacific SST is highly correlated to the recently discovered North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO; R=-0.85), reflecting strong dynamical links between the central Pacific warming mode and extratropical decadal climate variability. Whereas decadal-scale salinity variations in the central tropical Pacific are significantly correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO; R=0.54), providing a better understanding on low-frequency salinity variability in the region. Having characterized natural climate variability in this region, the coral record shows a +0.5°C warming trend throughout the last century

Abrupt climate change: Past, present and the search for precursors as an aid to predicting events in the future (Hans Oeschger Medal Lecture)

Science.gov (United States)

Mayewski, Paul Andrew

2016-04-01

The demonstration using Greenland ice cores that abrupt shifts in climate, Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, existed during the last glacial period has had a transformational impact on our understanding of climate change in the naturally forced world. The demonstration that D-O events are globally distributed and that they operated during previous glacial periods has led to extensive research into the relative hemispheric timing and causes of these events. The emergence of civilization during our current interglacial, the Holocene, has been attributed to the "relative climate quiescence" of this period relative to the massive, abrupt shifts in climate that characterized glacial periods in the form of D-O events. But, everything is relative and climate change is no exception. The demise of past civilizations, (eg., Mesopatamian, Mayan and Norse) is integrally tied to abrupt climate change (ACC) events operating at regional scales. Regionally to globally distributed ACC events have punctuated the Holocene and extreme events have always posed significant challenges to humans and ecosystems. Current warming of the Arctic, in terms of length of the summer season, is as abrupt and massive, albeit not as extensive, as the transition from the last major D-O event, the Younger Dryas into the Holocene (Mayewski et al., 2013). Tropospheric source greenhouse gas rise and ozone depletion in the stratosphere over Antarctica are triggers for the modern advent of human emission instigated ACCs. Arctic warming and Antarctic ozone depletion have resulted in significance changes to the atmospheric circulation systems that transport heat, moisture, and pollutants in both hemispheres. Climate models offer a critical tool for assessing trends, but they cannot as yet predict ACC events, as evidenced by the inability of these models to predict the rapid onset of Arctic warming and resulting changes in atmospheric circulation; and in the model vs past analog differences in projections for

Energy and cost associated with ventilating office buildings in a tropical climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Rim, Donghyun; Schiavon, Stefano; Nazaroff, William W

2015-01-01

Providing sufficient amounts of outdoor air to occupants is a critical building function for supporting occupant health, well-being and productivity. In tropical climates, high ventilation rates require substantial amounts of energy to cool and dehumidify supply air. This study evaluates the energy consumption and associated cost for thermally conditioning outdoor air provided for building ventilation in tropical climates, considering Singapore as an example locale. We investigated the influence on energy consumption and cost of the following factors: outdoor air temperature and humidity, ventilation rate (L/s per person), indoor air temperature and humidity, air conditioning system coefficient of performance (COP), and cost of electricity. Results show that dehumidification of outdoor air accounts for more than 80% of the energy needed for building ventilation in Singapore's tropical climate. Improved system performance and/or a small increase in the indoor temperature set point would permit relatively large ventilation rates (such as 25 L/s per person) at modest or no cost increment. Overall, even in a thermally demanding tropical climate, the energy cost associated with increasing ventilation rate up to 25 L/s per person is less than 1% of the wages of an office worker in an advanced economy like Singapore's. This result implies that the benefits of increasing outdoor air ventilation rate up to 25 L/s per person--which is suggested to provide for productivity increases, lower sick building syndrome symptom prevalence, and reduced sick leave--can be much larger than the incremental cost of ventilation.

Climate seasonality limits leaf carbon assimilation and wood productivity in tropical forests

Science.gov (United States)

Fabien H. Wagner; Bruno Herault; Damien Bonal; Clement Stahl; Liana O. Anderson; Timothy R. Baker; Gabriel Sebastian Becker; Hans Beeckman; Danilo Boanerges Souza; Paulo Cesar Botosso; David M. J. S. Bowman; Achim Brauning; Benjamin Brede; Foster Irving Brown; Jesus Julio Camarero; Plinio Barbosa Camargo; Fernanda C. G. Cardoso; Fabricio Alvim Carvalho; Wendeson Castro; Rubens Koloski Chagas; Jerome Chave; Emmanuel N. Chidumayo; Deborah A. Clark; Flavia Regina Capellotto Costa; Camille Couralet; Paulo Henrique da Silva Mauricio; Helmut Dalitz; Vinicius Resende de Castro; Jacanan Eloisa de Freitas Milani; Edilson Consuelo de Oliveira; Luciano de Souza Arruda; Jean-Louis Devineau; David M. Drew; Oliver Dunisch; Giselda Durigan; Elisha Elifuraha; Marcio Fedele; Ligia Ferreira Fedele; Afonso Figueiredo Filho; Cesar Augusto Guimaraes Finger; Augusto Cesar Franco; Joao Lima Freitas Junior; Franklin Galvao; Aster Gebrekirstos; Robert Gliniars; Paulo Mauricio Lima de Alencastro Graca; Anthony D. Griffiths; James Grogan; Kaiyu Guan; Jurgen Homeier; Maria Raquel Kanieski; Lip Khoon Kho; Jennifer Koenig; Sintia Valerio Kohler; Julia Krepkowski; Jose Pires Lemos-Filho; Diana Lieberman; Milton Eugene Lieberman; Claudio Sergio Lisi; Tomaz Longhi Santos; Jose Luis Lopez Ayala; Eduardo Eijji Maeda; Yadvinder Malhi; Vivian R. B. Maria; Marcia C. M. Marques; Renato Marques; Hector Maza Chamba; Lawrence Mbwambo; Karina Liana Lisboa Melgaco; Hooz Angela Mendivelso; Brett P. Murphy; Joseph O' Brien; Steven F. Oberbauer; Naoki Okada; Raphael Pelissier; Lynda D. Prior; Fidel Alejandro Roig; Michael Ross; Davi Rodrigo Rossatto; Vivien Rossi; Lucy Rowland; Ervan Rutishauser; Hellen Santana; Mark Schulze; Diogo Selhorst; Williamar Rodrigues Silva; Marcos Silveira; Susanne Spannl; Michael D. Swaine; Jose Julio Toledo; Marcos Miranda Toledo; Marisol Toledo; Takeshi Toma; Mario Tomazello Filho; Juan Ignacio Valdez Hernandez; Jan Verbesselt; Simone Aparecida Vieira; Gregoire Vincent; Carolina Volkmer de Castilho; Franziska Volland; Martin Worbes; Magda Lea Bolzan Zanon; Luiz E. O. C. Aragao

2016-01-01

The seasonal climate drivers of the carbon cycle in tropical forests remain poorly known, although these forests account for more carbon assimilation and storage than any other terrestrial ecosystem. Based on a unique combination of seasonal pan-tropical data sets from 89 experimental sites (68 include aboveground wood productivity measurements and 35 litter...

Connecting the records: exploiting tephra deposits to help understand abrupt climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Davies, S. M.; Abbott, P. M.; Bourne, A. J.; Chapman, M.; Pearce, N. J. G.; Griggs, A. J.; Cook, E.

2016-12-01

The causal mechanism of abrupt climate change during the last glacial period remains a key challenge. Although these events are well-documented in a wide range of proxy records, the triggers and drivers remain poorly understood, largely due to the dating uncertainties that prevent the integration of different archives. Unravelling the lead/lag responses (hence cause and effect) between the Earth's climate components is limited by the challenges of synchronising palaeoclimate records on a common timescale. Here we present the potential and the challenges of optimising the use of cryptotephra deposits to precisely correlate the Greenland ice-cores with North Atlantic marine records. A series of new cryptotephra deposits have been identified in Greenland, increasing the scope of identifying coeval isochrons in the marine environment. This new framework, however, brings new challenges in the search for unique and robust geochemical fingerprints for unequivocal tephra correlations. As such, some tephra deposits are proposed to be more valuable than others and underpin key snapshots in time during the last glacial period. The North Atlantic Ash Zone II, for instance, represents the most widespread isochron and constrains the cooling of GI-15. Some tephra deposits in the ice-core record originate from ultra-distal sources beyond the North Atlantic region and we also explore the potential for establishing North Pacific linkages.

Ocean waves from tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico and the effect of climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Appendini, C. M.; Pedrozo-Acuña, A.; Meza-Padilla, R.; Torres-Freyermuth, A.; Cerezo-Mota, R.; López-González, J.

2016-12-01

To generate projections of wave climate associated to tropical cyclones is a challenge due to their short historical record of events, their low occurrence, and the poor wind field resolution in General Circulation Models. Synthetic tropical cyclones provide an alternative to overcome such limitations, improving robust statistics under present and future climates. We use synthetic events to characterize present and future wave climate associated with tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico. The NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models NOAA/GFDL CM3 and UK Met Office HADGEM2-ES, were used to derive present and future wave climate under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. The results suggest an increase in wave activity for the future climate, particularly for the GFDL model that shows less bias in the present climate, although some areas are expected to decrease the wave energy. The practical implications of determining the future wave climate is exemplified by means of the 100-year design wave, where the use of the present climate may result in under/over design of structures, since the lifespan of a structure includes the future wave climate period.

Energy Design Guidelines for High Performance Schools: Tropical Island Climates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

2004-11-01

Design guidelines outline high performance principles for the new or retrofit design of K-12 schools in tropical island climates. By incorporating energy improvements into construction or renovation plans, schools can reduce energy consumption and costs.

Emergence timescales for detection of anthropogenic climate change in US tropical cyclone loss data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crompton, Ryan P; McAneney, K John; Pielke, Roger A Jr

2011-01-01

Recent reviews have concluded that efforts to date have yet to detect or attribute an anthropogenic climate change influence on Atlantic tropical cyclone (of at least tropical storm strength) behaviour and concomitant damage. However, the possibility of identifying such influence in the future cannot be ruled out. Using projections of future tropical cyclone activity from a recent prominent study we estimate the time that it would take for anthropogenic signals to emerge in a time series of normalized US tropical cyclone losses. Depending on the global climate model(s) underpinning the projection, emergence timescales range between 120 and 550 years, reflecting a large uncertainty. It takes 260 years for an 18-model ensemble-based signal to emerge. Consequently, under the projections examined here, the detection or attribution of an anthropogenic signal in tropical cyclone loss data is extremely unlikely to occur over periods of several decades (and even longer). This caution extends more generally to global weather-related natural disaster losses.

Pleistocene climatic changes drive diversification across a tropical savanna.

Science.gov (United States)

Potter, Sally; Xue, Alexander T; Bragg, Jason G; Rosauer, Dan F; Roycroft, Emily J; Moritz, Craig

2018-01-01

Spatial responses of species to past climate change depend on both intrinsic traits (climatic niche breadth, dispersal rates) and the scale of climatic fluctuations across the landscape. New capabilities in generating and analysing population genomic data, along with spatial modelling, have unleashed our capacity to infer how past climate changes have shaped populations, and by extension, complex communities. Combining these approaches, we uncover lineage diversity across four codistributed lizards from the Australian Monsoonal Tropics and explore how varying climatic tolerances interact with regional climate history to generate common vs. disparate responses to late Pleistocene change. We find more divergent spatial structuring and temporal demographic responses in the drier Kimberley region compared to the more mesic and consistently suitable Top End. We hypothesize that, in general, the effects of species' traits on sensitivity to climate fluctuation will be more evident in climatically marginal regions. If true, this points to the need in climatically marginal areas to craft more species-(or trait)-specific strategies for persistence under future climate change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Integrated regional changes in arctic climate feedbacks: Implications for the global climate system

Science.gov (United States)

McGuire, A.D.; Chapin, F. S.; Walsh, J.E.; Wirth, C.; ,

2006-01-01

The Arctic is a key part of the global climate system because the net positive energy input to the tropics must ultimately be resolved through substantial energy losses in high-latitude regions. The Arctic influences the global climate system through both positive and negative feedbacks that involve physical, ecological, and human systems of the Arctic. The balance of evidence suggests that positive feedbacks to global warming will likely dominate in the Arctic during the next 50 to 100 years. However, the negative feedbacks associated with changing the freshwater balance of the Arctic Ocean might abruptly launch the planet into another glacial period on longer timescales. In light of uncertainties and the vulnerabilities of the climate system to responses in the Arctic, it is important that we improve our understanding of how integrated regional changes in the Arctic will likely influence the evolution of the global climate system. Copyright ?? 2006 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.

A Review of the Detection Methods for Climate Regime Shifts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qunqun Liu

2016-01-01

Full Text Available An abrupt climate change means that the climate system shifts from a steady state to another steady state. Study on the phenomenon and theory of the abrupt climate change is a new research field of modern climatology, and it is of great significance for the prediction of future climate change. The climate regime shift is one of the most common forms of abrupt climate change, which mainly refers to the statistical significant changes on the variable of climate system at one time scale. These detection methods can be roughly divided into five categories based on different types of abrupt changes, namely, abrupt mean value change, abrupt variance change, abrupt frequency change, abrupt probability density change, and the multivariable analysis. The main research progress of abrupt climate change detection methods is reviewed. What is more, some actual applications of those methods in observational data are provided. With the development of nonlinear science, many new methods have been presented for detecting an abrupt dynamic change in recent years, which is useful supplement for the abrupt change detection methods.

Reconstructing Holocene (sub)tropical climate and cyclone variability using geochemical proxies

OpenAIRE

van Soelen, E.E.

2012-01-01

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are responsible for a warming trend that cannot easily be reversed. This warming trend is expected to have a large impact on global weather patterns and local environmental conditions, for example by changing precipitation patterns, sea level rise and increasing tropical cyclone activity. Therefore, (sub)tropical coastal regions are expected to be heavily impacted by future climate change. To improve our understanding of the possible consequences of futu...

Simple greenhouse climate model as a design tool for greenhouses in tropical lowland

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Impron, I.; Hemming-Hoffmann, S.; Bot, G.P.A.

2007-01-01

Six prototypes plastic greenhouses were built in the tropical lowlands of Indonesia. The geometrical dimensions were designed using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) by taking local climate parameters as static reference boundary conditions. It is necessary to evaluate the climate dynamics inside

Abrupt millennial variability and interdecadal-interstadial oscillations in a global coupled model: sensitivity to the background climate state

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Arzel, Olivier [The University of New South Wales, Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC), Sydney (Australia); Universite de Bretagne Occidentale, Laboratoire de Physique des Oceans (LPO), Brest (France); England, Matthew H. [The University of New South Wales, Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC), Sydney (Australia); Verdiere, Alain Colin de; Huck, Thierry [Universite de Bretagne Occidentale, Laboratoire de Physique des Oceans (LPO), Brest (France)

2012-07-15

The origin and bifurcation structure of abrupt millennial-scale climate transitions under steady external solar forcing and in the absence of atmospheric synoptic variability is studied by means of a global coupled model of intermediate complexity. We show that the origin of Dansgaard-Oeschger type oscillations in the model is caused by the weaker northward oceanic heat transport in the Atlantic basin. This is in agreement with previous studies realized with much simpler models, based on highly idealized geometries and simplified physics. The existence of abrupt millennial-scale climate transitions during glacial times can therefore be interpreted as a consequence of the weakening of the negative temperature-advection feedback. This is confirmed through a series of numerical experiments designed to explore the sensitivity of the bifurcation structure of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to increased atmospheric CO{sub 2} levels under glacial boundary conditions. Contrasting with the cold, stadial, phases of millennial oscillations, we also show the emergence of strong interdecadal variability in the North Atlantic sector during warm interstadials. The instability driving these interdecadal-interstadial oscillations is shown to be identical to that found in ocean-only models forced by fixed surface buoyancy fluxes, that is, a large-scale baroclinic instability developing in the vicinity of the western boundary current in the North Atlantic. Comparisons with modern observations further suggest a physical mechanism similar to that driving the 30-40 years time scale associated with the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. (orig.)

Impacts of Present and Future Climate Variability On Agriculture and Forestry in the Humid and Sub-Humid Tropics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao, Y.; Wang, C.; Wang, S.; Tibig, Lourdes V.

2005-01-01

Although there are different results from different studies, most assessments indicate that climate variability would have negative effects on agriculture and forestry in the humid and sub-humid tropics. Cereal crop yields would decrease generally with even minimal increases in temperature. For commercial crops, extreme events such as cyclones, droughts and floods lead to larger damages than only changes of mean climate. Impacts of climate variability on livestock mainly include two aspects; impacts on animals such as increase of heat and disease stress-related death, and impacts on pasture. As to forestry, climate variability would have negative as well as some positive impacts on forests of humid and sub-humid tropics. However, in most tropical regions, the impacts of human activities such as deforestation will be more important than climate variability and climate change in determining natural forest cover

Investigations of the Climate System Response to Climate Engineering in a Hierarchy of Models

Science.gov (United States)

McCusker, Kelly E.

Global warming due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases is causing negative impacts on diverse ecological and human systems around the globe, and these impacts are projected to worsen as climate continues to warm. In the absence of meaningful greenhouse gas emissions reductions, new strategies have been proposed to engineer the climate, with the aim of preventing further warming and avoiding associated climate impacts. We investigate one such strategy here, falling under the umbrella of `solar radiation management', in which sulfate aerosols are injected into the stratosphere. We use a global climate model with a coupled mixed-layer depth ocean and with a fully-coupled ocean general circulation model to simulate the stabilization of climate by balancing increasing carbon dioxide with increasing stratospheric sulfate concentrations. We evaluate whether or not severe climate impacts, such as melting Arctic sea ice, tropical crop failure, or destabilization of the West Antarctic ice sheet, could be avoided. We find that while tropical climate emergencies might be avoided by use of stratospheric aerosol injections, avoiding polar emergencies cannot be guaranteed due to large residual climate changes in those regions, which are in part due to residual atmospheric circulation anomalies. We also find that the inclusion of a fully-coupled ocean is important for determining the regional climate response because of its dynamical feedbacks. The efficacy of stratospheric sulfate aerosol injections, and solar radiation management more generally, depends on its ability to be maintained indefinitely, without interruption from a variety of possible sources, such as technological failure, a breakdown in global cooperation, lack of funding, or negative unintended consequences. We next consider the scenario in which stratospheric sulfate injections are abruptly terminated after a multi- decadal period of implementation while greenhouse gas emissions have continued unabated

Disaggregating Tropical Disease Prevalence by Climatic and Vegetative Zones within Tropical West Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Beckley, Carl S; Shaban, Salisu; Palmer, Guy H; Hudak, Andrew T; Noh, Susan M; Futse, James E

2016-01-01

Tropical infectious disease prevalence is dependent on many socio-cultural determinants. However, rainfall and temperature frequently underlie overall prevalence, particularly for vector-borne diseases. As a result these diseases have increased prevalence in tropical as compared to temperate regions. Specific to tropical Africa, the tendency to incorrectly infer that tropical diseases are uniformly prevalent has been partially overcome with solid epidemiologic data. This finer resolution data is important in multiple contexts, including understanding risk, predictive value in disease diagnosis, and population immunity. We hypothesized that within the context of a tropical climate, vector-borne pathogen prevalence would significantly differ according to zonal differences in rainfall, temperature, relative humidity and vegetation condition. We then determined if these environmental data were predictive of pathogen prevalence. First we determined the prevalence of three major pathogens of cattle, Anaplasma marginale, Babesia bigemina and Theileria spp, in the three vegetation zones where cattle are predominantly raised in Ghana: Guinea savannah, semi-deciduous forest, and coastal savannah. The prevalence of A. marginale was 63%, 26% for Theileria spp and 2% for B. bigemina. A. marginale and Theileria spp. were significantly more prevalent in the coastal savannah as compared to either the Guinea savanna or the semi-deciduous forest, supporting acceptance of the first hypothesis. To test the predictive power of environmental variables, the data over a three year period were considered in best subsets multiple linear regression models predicting prevalence of each pathogen. Corrected Akaike Information Criteria (AICc) were assigned to the alternative models to compare their utility. Competitive models for each response were averaged using AICc weights. Rainfall was most predictive of pathogen prevalence, and EVI also contributed to A. marginale and B. bigemina prevalence

Disaggregating Tropical Disease Prevalence by Climatic and Vegetative Zones within Tropical West Africa.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carl S Beckley

Full Text Available Tropical infectious disease prevalence is dependent on many socio-cultural determinants. However, rainfall and temperature frequently underlie overall prevalence, particularly for vector-borne diseases. As a result these diseases have increased prevalence in tropical as compared to temperate regions. Specific to tropical Africa, the tendency to incorrectly infer that tropical diseases are uniformly prevalent has been partially overcome with solid epidemiologic data. This finer resolution data is important in multiple contexts, including understanding risk, predictive value in disease diagnosis, and population immunity. We hypothesized that within the context of a tropical climate, vector-borne pathogen prevalence would significantly differ according to zonal differences in rainfall, temperature, relative humidity and vegetation condition. We then determined if these environmental data were predictive of pathogen prevalence. First we determined the prevalence of three major pathogens of cattle, Anaplasma marginale, Babesia bigemina and Theileria spp, in the three vegetation zones where cattle are predominantly raised in Ghana: Guinea savannah, semi-deciduous forest, and coastal savannah. The prevalence of A. marginale was 63%, 26% for Theileria spp and 2% for B. bigemina. A. marginale and Theileria spp. were significantly more prevalent in the coastal savannah as compared to either the Guinea savanna or the semi-deciduous forest, supporting acceptance of the first hypothesis. To test the predictive power of environmental variables, the data over a three year period were considered in best subsets multiple linear regression models predicting prevalence of each pathogen. Corrected Akaike Information Criteria (AICc were assigned to the alternative models to compare their utility. Competitive models for each response were averaged using AICc weights. Rainfall was most predictive of pathogen prevalence, and EVI also contributed to A. marginale and B

Inventing Caribbean climates: how science, medicine, and tourism changed tropical weather from deadly to healthy.

Science.gov (United States)

Carey, Mark

2011-01-01

This article examines how four major historical factors--geographical features, social conditions, medicine, and tourism--affected European and North American views of the tropical Caribbean climate from approximately 1750 to 1950. It focuses on the British West Indies, a region barely examined in the historiography of climate, and examines the views of physicians, residents, government officials, travelers, and missionaries. International perceptions of the tropical Caribbean climate shifted markedly over time, from the deadly, disease-ridden environment of colonial depictions in the eighteenth century to one of the world's most iconic climatic paradises, where tourists sought sun-drenched beaches and healing breezes, in the twentieth. This analysis of how environmental conditions, knowledge systems, social relations, politics, and economics shaped scientific and popular understandings of climate contributes to recent studies on the cultural construction of climate. The approach also offers important lessons for present-day discussions of climate change, which often depict climate too narrowly as simply temperature.

Tropical convection regimes in climate models: evaluation with satellite observations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. K. Steiner

2018-04-01

Full Text Available High-quality observations are powerful tools for the evaluation of climate models towards improvement and reduction of uncertainty. Particularly at low latitudes, the most uncertain aspect lies in the representation of moist convection and interaction with dynamics, where rising motion is tied to deep convection and sinking motion to dry regimes. Since humidity is closely coupled with temperature feedbacks in the tropical troposphere, a proper representation of this region is essential. Here we demonstrate the evaluation of atmospheric climate models with satellite-based observations from Global Positioning System (GPS radio occultation (RO, which feature high vertical resolution and accuracy in the troposphere to lower stratosphere. We focus on the representation of the vertical atmospheric structure in tropical convection regimes, defined by high updraft velocity over warm surfaces, and investigate atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles. Results reveal that some models do not fully capture convection regions, particularly over land, and only partly represent strong vertical wind classes. Models show large biases in tropical mean temperature of more than 4 K in the tropopause region and the lower stratosphere. Reasonable agreement with observations is given in mean specific humidity in the lower to mid-troposphere. In moist convection regions, models tend to underestimate moisture by 10 to 40 % over oceans, whereas in dry downdraft regions they overestimate moisture by 100 %. Our findings provide evidence that RO observations are a unique source of information, with a range of further atmospheric variables to be exploited, for the evaluation and advancement of next-generation climate models.

Tropical convection regimes in climate models: evaluation with satellite observations

Science.gov (United States)

Steiner, Andrea K.; Lackner, Bettina C.; Ringer, Mark A.

2018-04-01

High-quality observations are powerful tools for the evaluation of climate models towards improvement and reduction of uncertainty. Particularly at low latitudes, the most uncertain aspect lies in the representation of moist convection and interaction with dynamics, where rising motion is tied to deep convection and sinking motion to dry regimes. Since humidity is closely coupled with temperature feedbacks in the tropical troposphere, a proper representation of this region is essential. Here we demonstrate the evaluation of atmospheric climate models with satellite-based observations from Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation (RO), which feature high vertical resolution and accuracy in the troposphere to lower stratosphere. We focus on the representation of the vertical atmospheric structure in tropical convection regimes, defined by high updraft velocity over warm surfaces, and investigate atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles. Results reveal that some models do not fully capture convection regions, particularly over land, and only partly represent strong vertical wind classes. Models show large biases in tropical mean temperature of more than 4 K in the tropopause region and the lower stratosphere. Reasonable agreement with observations is given in mean specific humidity in the lower to mid-troposphere. In moist convection regions, models tend to underestimate moisture by 10 to 40 % over oceans, whereas in dry downdraft regions they overestimate moisture by 100 %. Our findings provide evidence that RO observations are a unique source of information, with a range of further atmospheric variables to be exploited, for the evaluation and advancement of next-generation climate models.

Carbon stock corridors to mitigate climate change and promote biodiversity in the tropics

Science.gov (United States)

Jantz, Patrick; Goetz, Scott; Laporte, Nadine

2014-02-01

A key issue in global conservation is how biodiversity co-benefits can be incorporated into land use and climate change mitigation activities, particularly those being negotiated under the United Nations to reduce emissions from tropical deforestation and forest degradation. Protected areas have been the dominant strategy for tropical forest conservation and they have increased substantially in recent decades. Avoiding deforestation by preserving carbon stored in vegetation between protected areas provides an opportunity to mitigate the effects of land use and climate change on biodiversity by maintaining habitat connectivity across landscapes. Here we use a high-resolution data set of vegetation carbon stock to map corridors traversing areas of highest biomass between protected areas in the tropics. The derived corridors contain 15% of the total unprotected aboveground carbon in the tropical region. A large number of corridors have carbon densities that approach or exceed those of the protected areas they connect, suggesting these are suitable areas for achieving both habitat connectivity and climate change mitigation benefits. To further illustrate how economic and biological information can be used for corridor prioritization on a regional scale, we conducted a multicriteria analysis of corridors in the Legal Amazon, identifying corridors with high carbon, high species richness and endemism, and low economic opportunity costs. We also assessed the vulnerability of corridors to future deforestation threat.

Conceptual differences between the bioclimatic urbanism for Europe and for the tropical humid climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Corbella, O.D.; Magalhaes, M.A.A.A. [Faculdade de Arquitetura e Urbanismo, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)

2008-05-15

This article makes part of a series of conceptual papers to continue the discussion about how architecture and urbanism interact with climate, in tropical regions. Students engaged in normal courses of architecture in tropical regions, particularly in South America, develop their knowledge based on concepts generated in the developed countries - usually related to cold environments. Consequently, these students acquire wrong ideas about urban design of open spaces. Integrating urbanism and climate in tropical countries is still very incipient as an approach and many lecturers reject it, since they prefer to continue with a more formal one, dictated by most of the dominant countries. The herein paper underlines several different concepts and perspectives that separate the two conceptions, leading to a reflection about the subject. (author)

Ocean climate coupling in the tropical Pacific Ocean over the past fifty years: implications and feedbacks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Xiujun; Murtugudde, Ragu; Busalacchi, Antonio J.

2007-01-01

Full text: The tropical Pacific plays an important role in climate because of its significant air-sea exchanges of heat, freshwater, and carbon dioxide (C02), and because of its direct linkage to climate variability. There are two dominant modes of climate variability in the Tropics: the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). There has been strong evidence of ENSO and PDO impacts on tropical Pacific physics and biogeochemistry, including heat content, ocean circulation (McPhaden and Zhang 2002), and carbon fluxes (Feely ef al. 2006; Wang ef al. 2006). In this study, we apply a basin-scale ocean circulation-ecosystem-carbon model (Wang ef al. 2006) to study the responses of the tropical Pacific ecosystem, biogeochemistry and carbon cycle to climate forcing over the past 50 years. The model produces strong spatial and temporal variability in surface nutrient concentration, phytoplankton biomass, carbon uptake, and sea-to-air C02 flux, which are largely associated with the ENSO phenomenon. In particular, the size of the tropical Pacific C02 source is large during the ENSO cold phase but small during the ENSO warm phase. There are significant decadal variations in tropical Pacific carbon fluxes, reflecting physical and biogeochemical changes associated with the 1977 and 1997/98 PDO shifts. The 1977 regime shift caused 1 0 C warming in sea surface temperature and -50% reduction in surface iron concentration in the Niho3.4 area, leading to decreased biological activity. While there is a large decrease in phytoplankton growth and biomass, reduction in carbon uptake is smaller than expected, due to phytoplankton photoadaption, which increases the carbon to chlorophyll ratio in the upper euphotic zone and enhances sub-surface production. Photoadaption also results in clearer water near the surface, leading to less heating near the ocean surface and allowing more solar radiation to penetrate the subsurface. Our studies

Life in the clouds: are tropical montane cloud forests responding to changes in climate?

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Jia; Riveros-Iregui, Diego A

2016-04-01

The humid tropics represent only one example of the many places worldwide where anthropogenic disturbance and climate change are quickly affecting the feedbacks between water and trees. In this article, we address the need for a more long-term perspective on the effects of climate change on tropical montane cloud forests (TMCF) in order to fully assess the combined vulnerability and long-term response of tropical trees to changes in precipitation regimes, including cloud immersion. We first review the ecophysiological benefits that cloud water interception offers to trees in TMCF and then examine current climatological evidence that suggests changes in cloud base height and impending changes in cloud immersion for TMCF. Finally, we propose an experimental approach to examine the long-term dynamics of tropical trees in TMCF in response to environmental conditions on decade-to-century time scales. This information is important to assess the vulnerability and long-term response of TMCF to changes in cloud cover and fog frequency and duration.

Comparison of Explicitly Simulated and Downscaled Tropical Cyclone Activity in a High-Resolution Global Climate Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hirofumi Tomita

2010-01-01

Full Text Available The response of tropical cyclone activity to climate change is a matter of great inherent interest and practical importance. Most current global climate models are not, however, capable of adequately resolving tropical cyclones; this has led to the development of downscaling techniques designed to infer tropical cyclone activity from the large-scale fields produced by climate models. Here we compare the statistics of tropical cyclones simulated explicitly in a very high resolution (~14 km grid mesh global climate model to the results of one such downscaling technique driven by the same global model. This is done for a simulation of the current climate and also for a simulation of a climate warmed by the addition of carbon dioxide. The explicitly simulated and downscaled storms are similarly distributed in space, but the intensity distribution of the downscaled events has a somewhat longer high-intensity tail, owing to the higher resolution of the downscaling model. Both explicitly simulated and downscaled events show large increases in the frequency of events at the high-intensity ends of their respective intensity distributions, but the downscaled storms also show increases in low-intensity events, whereas the explicitly simulated weaker events decline in number. On the regional scale, there are large differences in the responses of the explicitly simulated and downscaled events to global warming. In particular, the power dissipation of downscaled events shows a 175% increase in the Atlantic, while the power dissipation of explicitly simulated events declines there.

Small changes in climate can profoundly alter the dynamics and ecosystem services of tropical crater lakes.

Science.gov (United States)

Saulnier-Talbot, Émilie; Gregory-Eaves, Irene; Simpson, Kyle G; Efitre, Jackson; Nowlan, Tobias E; Taranu, Zofia E; Chapman, Lauren J

2014-01-01

African tropical lakes provide vital ecosystem services including food and water to some of the fastest growing human populations, yet they are among the most understudied ecosystems in the world. The consequences of climate change and other stressors on the tropical lakes of Africa have been informed by long-term analyses, but these studies have largely focused on the massive Great Rift Valley lakes. Our objective was to evaluate how recent climate change has altered the functioning and services of smaller tropical lakes, which are far more abundant on the landscape. Based on a paired analysis of 20 years of high-resolution water column data and a paleolimnological record from a small crater lake in western Uganda, we present evidence that even a modest warming of the air (∼0.9°C increase over 20 years) and changes in the timing and intensity of rainfall can have significant consequences on the dynamics of this common tropical lake type. For example, we observed a significant nonlinear increase (R(2) adj  = 0.23, e.d.f. = 7, pdeterioration of fish habitat and appears to have abated primary production; processes that may impair ecosystem services for a vulnerable human population. This study on a system representative of small tropical crater lakes highlights the far-reaching effects of global climatic change on tropical waters. Increased research efforts into tropical aquatic ecosystem health and the development of sound management practices are necessary in order to strengthen adaptive capabilities in tropical regions.

Responses of the Tropical Atmospheric Circulation to Climate Change and Connection to the Hydrological Cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Jian; Chadwick, Robin; Seo, Kyong-Hwan; Dong, Changming; Huang, Gang; Foltz, Gregory R.; Jiang, Jonathan H.

2018-05-01

This review describes the climate change–induced responses of the tropical atmospheric circulation and their impacts on the hydrological cycle. We depict the theoretically predicted changes and diagnose physical mechanisms for observational and model-projected trends in large-scale and regional climate. The tropical circulation slows down with moisture and stratification changes, connecting to a poleward expansion of the Hadley cells and a shift of the intertropical convergence zone. Redistributions of regional precipitation consist of thermodynamic and dynamical components, including a strong offset between moisture increase and circulation weakening throughout the tropics. This allows other dynamical processes to dominate local circulation changes, such as a surface warming pattern effect over oceans and multiple mechanisms over land. To improve reliability in climate projections, more fundamental understandings of pattern formation, circulation change, and the balance of various processes redistributing land rainfall are suggested to be important.

Abrupt climate change and high to low latitude teleconnections as simulated in climate models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cvijanovic, Ivana

of the present day atmospheric mid-latitude energy transport compared to that of the Last Glacial Maximum, suggesting its ability to reorganize more easily and thereby dampen high latitude temperature anomalies that could arise from changes in the oceanic transport. The role of tropical SSTs in the tropical......High to low latitude atmospheric teleconnections have been a topic of increasing scientific interest since it was shown that high latitude extratropical forcing can induce tropical precipitation shifts through atmosphere-surface ocean interactions. In this thesis, several aspects of high to low...... precipitation shifts was further re-examined in idealized simulations with the fixed tropical sea surface temperatures, showing that the SST changes are fundamental to the tropical precipitation shifts. Regarding the high latitude energy loss, it was shown that the main energy compensation comes from...

Climate science in the tropics: waves, vortices and PDEs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khouider, Boualem; Majda, Andrew J; Stechmann, Samuel N

2013-01-01

Clouds in the tropics can organize the circulation on planetary scales and profoundly impact long range seasonal forecasting and climate on the entire globe, yet contemporary operational computer models are often deficient in representing these phenomena. On the other hand, contemporary observations reveal remarkably complex coherent waves and vortices in the tropics interacting across a bewildering range of scales from kilometers to ten thousand kilometers. This paper reviews the interdisciplinary contributions over the last decade through the modus operandi of applied mathematics to these important scientific problems. Novel physical phenomena, new multiscale equations, novel PDEs, and numerical algorithms are presented here with the goal of attracting mathematicians and physicists to this exciting research area. (invited article)

Climate science in the tropics: waves, vortices and PDEs

Science.gov (United States)

Khouider, Boualem; Majda, Andrew J.; Stechmann, Samuel N.

2013-01-01

Clouds in the tropics can organize the circulation on planetary scales and profoundly impact long range seasonal forecasting and climate on the entire globe, yet contemporary operational computer models are often deficient in representing these phenomena. On the other hand, contemporary observations reveal remarkably complex coherent waves and vortices in the tropics interacting across a bewildering range of scales from kilometers to ten thousand kilometers. This paper reviews the interdisciplinary contributions over the last decade through the modus operandi of applied mathematics to these important scientific problems. Novel physical phenomena, new multiscale equations, novel PDEs, and numerical algorithms are presented here with the goal of attracting mathematicians and physicists to this exciting research area.

Annually resolved ice core records of tropical climate variability over the past ~1800 years.

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, L G; Mosley-Thompson, E; Davis, M E; Zagorodnov, V S; Howat, I M; Mikhalenko, V N; Lin, P-N

2013-05-24

Ice cores from low latitudes can provide a wealth of unique information about past climate in the tropics, but they are difficult to recover and few exist. Here, we report annually resolved ice core records from the Quelccaya ice cap (5670 meters above sea level) in Peru that extend back ~1800 years and provide a high-resolution record of climate variability there. Oxygen isotopic ratios (δ(18)O) are linked to sea surface temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific, whereas concentrations of ammonium and nitrate document the dominant role played by the migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone in the region of the tropical Andes. Quelccaya continues to retreat and thin. Radiocarbon dates on wetland plants exposed along its retreating margins indicate that it has not been smaller for at least six millennia.

Does δ18O of O2 record meridional shifts in tropical rainfall?

Science.gov (United States)

Seltzer, Alan M.; Buizert, Christo; Baggenstos, Daniel; Brook, Edward J.; Ahn, Jinho; Yang, Ji-Woong; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P.

2017-10-01

Marine sediments, speleothems, paleo-lake elevations, and ice core methane and δ18O of O2 (δ18Oatm) records provide ample evidence for repeated abrupt meridional shifts in tropical rainfall belts throughout the last glacial cycle. To improve understanding of the impact of abrupt events on the global terrestrial biosphere, we present composite records of δ18Oatm and inferred changes in fractionation by the global terrestrial biosphere (ΔɛLAND) from discrete gas measurements in the WAIS Divide (WD) and Siple Dome (SD) Antarctic ice cores. On the common WD timescale, it is evident that maxima in ΔɛLAND are synchronous with or shortly follow small-amplitude WD CH4 peaks that occur within Heinrich stadials 1, 2, 4, and 5 - periods of low atmospheric CH4 concentrations. These local CH4 maxima have been suggested as markers of abrupt climate responses to Heinrich events. Based on our analysis of the modern seasonal cycle of gross primary productivity (GPP)-weighted δ18O of terrestrial precipitation (the source water for atmospheric O2 production), we propose a simple mechanism by which ΔɛLAND tracks the centroid latitude of terrestrial oxygen production. As intense rainfall and oxygen production migrate northward, ΔɛLAND should decrease due to the underlying meridional gradient in rainfall δ18O. A southward shift should increase ΔɛLAND. Monsoon intensity also influences δ18O of precipitation, and although we cannot determine the relative contributions of the two mechanisms, both act in the same direction. Therefore, we suggest that abrupt increases in ΔɛLAND unambiguously imply a southward shift of tropical rainfall. The exact magnitude of this shift, however, remains under-constrained by ΔɛLAND.

Does δ18O of O2 record meridional shifts in tropical rainfall?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. M. Seltzer

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Marine sediments, speleothems, paleo-lake elevations, and ice core methane and δ18O of O2 (δ18Oatm records provide ample evidence for repeated abrupt meridional shifts in tropical rainfall belts throughout the last glacial cycle. To improve understanding of the impact of abrupt events on the global terrestrial biosphere, we present composite records of δ18Oatm and inferred changes in fractionation by the global terrestrial biosphere (ΔεLAND from discrete gas measurements in the WAIS Divide (WD and Siple Dome (SD Antarctic ice cores. On the common WD timescale, it is evident that maxima in ΔεLAND are synchronous with or shortly follow small-amplitude WD CH4 peaks that occur within Heinrich stadials 1, 2, 4, and 5 – periods of low atmospheric CH4 concentrations. These local CH4 maxima have been suggested as markers of abrupt climate responses to Heinrich events. Based on our analysis of the modern seasonal cycle of gross primary productivity (GPP-weighted δ18O of terrestrial precipitation (the source water for atmospheric O2 production, we propose a simple mechanism by which ΔεLAND tracks the centroid latitude of terrestrial oxygen production. As intense rainfall and oxygen production migrate northward, ΔεLAND should decrease due to the underlying meridional gradient in rainfall δ18O. A southward shift should increase ΔεLAND. Monsoon intensity also influences δ18O of precipitation, and although we cannot determine the relative contributions of the two mechanisms, both act in the same direction. Therefore, we suggest that abrupt increases in ΔεLAND unambiguously imply a southward shift of tropical rainfall. The exact magnitude of this shift, however, remains under-constrained by ΔεLAND.

Small changes in climate can profoundly alter the dynamics and ecosystem services of tropical crater lakes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Émilie Saulnier-Talbot

Full Text Available African tropical lakes provide vital ecosystem services including food and water to some of the fastest growing human populations, yet they are among the most understudied ecosystems in the world. The consequences of climate change and other stressors on the tropical lakes of Africa have been informed by long-term analyses, but these studies have largely focused on the massive Great Rift Valley lakes. Our objective was to evaluate how recent climate change has altered the functioning and services of smaller tropical lakes, which are far more abundant on the landscape. Based on a paired analysis of 20 years of high-resolution water column data and a paleolimnological record from a small crater lake in western Uganda, we present evidence that even a modest warming of the air (∼0.9°C increase over 20 years and changes in the timing and intensity of rainfall can have significant consequences on the dynamics of this common tropical lake type. For example, we observed a significant nonlinear increase (R(2 adj  = 0.23, e.d.f. = 7, p<0.0001 in thermal stability over the past 20 years. This resulted in the expansion of anoxic waters and consequent deterioration of fish habitat and appears to have abated primary production; processes that may impair ecosystem services for a vulnerable human population. This study on a system representative of small tropical crater lakes highlights the far-reaching effects of global climatic change on tropical waters. Increased research efforts into tropical aquatic ecosystem health and the development of sound management practices are necessary in order to strengthen adaptive capabilities in tropical regions.

Modeling Past Abrupt Climate Changes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Marchionne, Arianna

of the orbital variations on Earth's climate; however, the knowledge and tools needed to complete a unied theory for ice ages have not been developed yet. Here, we focus on the climatic variations that have occurred over the last few million years. Paleoclimatic records show that the glacial cycles are linked...... to those present in the astronomical forcing. We shall do this in terms of a general framework of conceptual dynamical models, which may or may not exhibit internal self-sustained oscillations. We introduce and discuss two distinct mechanisms for a periodic response at a dierent period to a periodic...

Missourian (early Late Pennsylvanian) climate in Midcontinent North America

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schutter, S.R.; Heckel, P.H.

1985-06-01

The abrupt decrease in mineable coals from Desmoinesian to Missourian rocks in Midcontinent North America has been related by several lines of evidence to the probability that Missourian climate became at least seasonally drier than Desmoinesian climate. This represents a transition from the equatorial Desmoinesian rainforest climate to the arid Permian climate, as North America moved northward from the equator. This change is reflected in the progression of evaporites from western Colorado in the Desmoinesian to Kansas in the Permian. Direct climatic evidence from soils in two Missourian shales deposited at low stands of sea-level includes caliche horizons, incompletely leached mixed-layer clays. Less direct climatic evidence includes the greater proportion of marine limestone deposited at intermediate sea-level stands in the Missourian than in the Desmoinesian part of the sequence, in conjunction with the greater abundance and thickness of oolite and shore-line facies in Missourian limestones than in Desmoinesian counterparts. This probably reflects increasing dryness of the climate, which would have led to decreased detrital influx and increased salinity as rainfall and runoff diminished. Indirect climatic evidence in offshore black phosphatic shales deposited at highest sea-level stands involves possible seasonality in organic and phosphatic laminations, related to periodicity of upwelling in the tropical trade-wide belt under the strong monsoonal influence of Pangaea. Mid-continent Missourian climates probably ranged from tropical monsoon to tropical savanna or hot steppe, all having wet-dry seasonality. The coincident extinctions of conodont, brachiopod, and other marine genera as well as the loss of swamp lycopods at the end of the Desmoinesian suggest the possibility that a greater than usual drop in sea level affected both realms at this time, while the climate was becoming drier. 91 references.

Abrupt climatic events recorded by the Ili loess during the last glaciation in Central Asia: Evidence from grain-size and minerals

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Yougui; Zeng, Mengxiu; Chen, Xiuling; Li, Yue; Chang, Hong; An, Zhisheng; Guo, Xiaohua

2018-04-01

The loess record of Central Asia provides an important archive of regional climate and environmental changes. In contrast to the widely investigated loess deposits in the Chinese Loess Plateau, Central Asian loess-paleosol sequences remain poorly understood. Here, we present an aeolian loess section in the southern Ili Basin. Based on granularity and mineralogical analyses, we reconstruct climatic changes during the last glaciation. The results indicated that most of the abrupt climatic events (such as Dansgaard-Oeschger events and Heinrich events) were imprinted in this loess section, although their amplitudes and ages showed some differences. Compared with the millennial oscillations recoded in loess and stalagmites in East Asia, the arid Central Asia responded more sensitively to the warming events than to the cooling events. The shifting trajectory of westerlies across Central Asia played an important role in dust deposition during the stadials. The North Atlantic climatic signals may have been transmitted from Central Asia to the East Asian monsoon regions via the westerlies.

Sources and Impacts of Modeled and Observed Low-Frequency Climate Variability

Science.gov (United States)

Parsons, Luke Alexander

Here we analyze climate variability using instrumental, paleoclimate (proxy), and the latest climate model data to understand more about the sources and impacts of low-frequency climate variability. Understanding the drivers of climate variability at interannual to century timescales is important for studies of climate change, including analyses of detection and attribution of climate change impacts. Additionally, correctly modeling the sources and impacts of variability is key to the simulation of abrupt change (Alley et al., 2003) and extended drought (Seager et al., 2005; Pelletier and Turcotte, 1997; Ault et al., 2014). In Appendix A, we employ an Earth system model (GFDL-ESM2M) simulation to study the impacts of a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the climate of the American Tropics. The AMOC drives some degree of local and global internal low-frequency climate variability (Manabe and Stouffer, 1995; Thornalley et al., 2009) and helps control the position of the tropical rainfall belt (Zhang and Delworth, 2005). We find that a major weakening of the AMOC can cause large-scale temperature, precipitation, and carbon storage changes in Central and South America. Our results suggest that possible future changes in AMOC strength alone will not be sufficient to drive a large-scale dieback of the Amazonian forest, but this key natural ecosystem is sensitive to dry-season length and timing of rainfall (Parsons et al., 2014). In Appendix B, we compare a paleoclimate record of precipitation variability in the Peruvian Amazon to climate model precipitation variability. The paleoclimate (Lake Limon) record indicates that precipitation variability in western Amazonia is 'red' (i.e., increasing variability with timescale). By contrast, most state-of-the-art climate models indicate precipitation variability in this region is nearly 'white' (i.e., equally variability across timescales). This paleo-model disagreement in the overall

The abrupt climate change near 4,400 yr BP on the cultural transition in Yuchisi, China and its global linkage.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jianjun; Sun, Liguang; Chen, Liqi; Xu, Libin; Wang, Yuhong; Wang, Xinming

2016-06-10

Extreme climatic events have profound impacts on human society. Here we present the results of a study of organic biomarkers within a sedimentary section at the archaeological site of Yuchisi, eastern China, in order to reconstruct climatic variability during the Dawenkou (5,050-4,400 yr BP) and Longshan (4,400-4,000 yr BP) cultures. At ~4,400 yr BP, within the cultural transition horizon, abrupt changes in biomarkers, such as the fatty acid ratio C18:2/C18:0, 2C31/(C27 + C29), n-C18-ol and n-C30-ol, indicate the occurrence of local climate changes over the course of a few decades. These changes occurred during the transition from the Holocene warm period to a subsequent cold period which lasted for the following 600 years. This climatic shift has been recorded at numerous sites worldwide, and it is likely to have been the main cause of the widespread collapse of many isolated cultures at that time. The palaeoclimatic and archaeological data from the Yuchisi sediments may provide new insights into the relationship between climate change and prehistoric cultural transitions.

Millennial-scale precipitation variability over Easter Island (South Pacific) during MIS 3: inter-hemispheric teleconnections with North Atlantic abrupt cold events

Science.gov (United States)

Margalef, O.; Cacho, I.; Pla-Rabes, S.; Cañellas-Boltà, N.; Pueyo, J. J.; Sáez, A.; Pena, L. D.; Valero-Garcés, B. L.; Rull, V.; Giralt, S.

2015-04-01

Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3, 59.4-27.8 kyr BP) is characterized by the occurrence of rapid millennial-scale climate oscillations known as Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles (DO) and by abrupt cooling events in the North Atlantic known as Heinrich events. Although both the timing and dynamics of these events have been broadly explored in North Atlantic records, the response of the tropical and subtropical latitudes to these rapid climatic excursions, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere, still remains unclear. The Rano Aroi peat record (Easter Island, 27° S) provides a unique opportunity to understand atmospheric and oceanic changes in the South Pacific during these DO cycles because of its singular location, which is influenced by the South Pacific Anticyclone (SPA), the Southern Westerlies (SW), and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) linked to the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). The Rano Aroi sequence records 6 major events of enhanced precipitation between 38 and 65 kyr BP. These events are compared with other hydrological records from the tropical and subtropical band supporting a coherent regional picture, with the dominance of humid conditions in Southern Hemisphere tropical band during Heinrich Stadials (HS) 5, 5a and 6 and other Stadials while dry conditions prevailed in the Northern tropics. This antiphased hydrological pattern between hemispheres has been attributed to ITCZ migration, which in turn might be associated with an eastward expansion of the SPCZ storm track, leading to an increased intensity of cyclogenic storms reaching Easter Island. Low Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) gradients across the Equator were coincident with the here-defined Rano Aroi humid events and consistent with a reorganization of Southern Pacific atmospheric and oceanic circulation also at higher latitudes during Heinrich and Dansgaard-Oeschger stadials.

Impacts of land use, restoration, and climate change on tropical peat carbon stocks in the twenty-first century: implications for climate mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

Matthew W. Warren; Steve Frolking; Zhaohua Dai; Sofyan Kurnianto

2016-01-01

The climate mitigation potential of tropical peatlands has gained increased attention as Southeast Asian peatlands are being deforested, drained and burned at very high rates, causing globally significant carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to the atmosphere. We used a process-based dynamic tropical peatland model to explore peat carbon (C) dynamics...

Productive vegetation: relationships between net primary productivity, vegetation types and climate change in the Wet Tropics bioregion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ramirez, Vanessa Valdez; Williams, Stephen E.; VanDerWal, Jeremy

2007-01-01

Full text: Full text: There is now ample evidence demonstrating the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and human society (Walther ef a/. 2002). Numerous studies have shown climate change is one of the most significant threats to tropical forests, such as the Wet Tropics Heritage Area, due to their high biodiversity and endemism (Pounds ef al. 1999; Hughes 2000; Parmesan and Yohe 2003). Williams ef al. (2003) suggested that small shifts in net primary productivity (NPP) as a result of climate change could lead to potentially massive follow-on effects for the extremely diverse and vulnerable rainforest flora and fauna. It is therefore crucial to explore the relationships between NPP and local biodiversity, especially to create models for different climate change scenarios. Nevertheless, NPP in the Wet Tropics has yet to be estimated. This is the first study to provide a general NPP estimate for the Wet Tropics bioregion using climate surrogates (Schuur 2003). This technique estimates NPP in an accurate, repeatable, and cost-effective way. NPP values were linked to vegetation types and examined under various climatic and environmental conditions. Results show a significant difference in productivity according to vegetation types and climatic variables, with temperature and rainfall seasonality as the most important determining variables. Additionally, lowland and upland vegetations showed a significant difference in productivity patterns throughout the year. Vegetation types located above 1000 metres in altitude had the lowest values of mean annual productivity due to their high rainfall and low temperatures; vegetation types located below 600 metres showed increased productivity values during the wet season (December-March). Net primary productivity will certainly be impacted by changes in temperature and rainfall, due to climate change. Although an increase in NPP values can be predicted for upland areas, the more widely distributed lowlands will drastically

Variations in tropical convection as an amplifier of global climate change at the millennial scale

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ivanochkoa, T.S.; Ganeshram, R.S.; Brummer, G.J.A.; Ganssen, G.M.; Jung, S.J.A.; Moreton, S.G.; Kroon, D.

2005-01-01

The global expression of millennial-scale climatic change during the glacial period and the persistence of this signal in Holocene records point to atmospheric teleconnections as the mechanism propagating rapid climate variations. We suggest rearrangements in the tropical convection system globally

Effects of climate change on agriculture particularly in semi-arid tropics of the world with some examples of Ethiopian condition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Demessie, Almaz

2004-01-01

Today climate change is a burning issue all over the world because of its global nature. Fears have arisen that, climate may be changing for the worse and its impact may be felt on agricultural production, which will reduce the supply of food to growing population, especially in developing countries. Climate change would affect various human activities. Agriculture is one of the activities, which can be seriously affected by climate change. Due to high inter-annual variability and uneven distribution of rainfall during the rainy season, recurrent droughts have been observed in semi-arid tropics of the world over the last three decades. As White (1996) pointed out rain fed agriculture in the semi-arid tropics is limited mostly by high climatic variability with principal limiting factor being rainfall. The main crops of traditional rain fed agriculture are sorghum, millet, maize, cowpea, pulses and sesame. There is a suggestion that increased CO 2 will benefit temperate and humid tropical agriculture more than that in the semi-arid tropics. During the process of photosynthesis plant species with the C 3 photosynthetic pathway tend to respond positively to increased CO 2 while the C 4 have a poor response. Since C 4 plants are mostly tropical crops, the situation will be worst over the areas (Parry, 1990). Climate change will alter the nature of occurrence of agricultural pests in terms of area. Warmer temperatures shorten the generation time; increase the development rate of epidemic. For example, assessment of the effect of global warming on the distribution of livestock disease suggests that pests at present limited to tropical countries may spread into other parts of the world, which have different climatic condition (ibid).(Author)

Millennial-scale climate variability during the Last Glacial period in the tropical Andes

Science.gov (United States)

Fritz, S. C.; Baker, P. A.; Ekdahl, E.; Seltzer, G. O.; Stevens, L. R.

2010-04-01

Millennial-scale climate variation during the Last Glacial period is evident in many locations worldwide, but it is unclear if such variation occurred in the interior of tropical South America, and, if so, how the low-latitude variation was related to its high-latitude counterpart. A high-resolution record, derived from the deep drilling of sediments on the floor of Lake Titicaca in the southern tropical Andes, is presented that shows clear evidence of millennial-scale climate variation between ˜60 and 20 ka BP. This variation is manifested by alternations of two interbedded sedimentary units. The two units have distinctive sedimentary, geochemical, and paleobiotic properties that are controlled by the relative abundance of terrigenous or nearshore components versus pelagic components. The sediments of more terrigenous or nearshore nature likely were deposited during regionally wetter climates when river transport of water and sediment was higher, whereas the sediments of more pelagic character were deposited during somewhat drier climates regionally. The majority of the wet periods inferred from the Lake Titicaca sediment record are correlated with the cold events in the Greenland ice cores and North Atlantic sediment cores, indicating that increased intensity of the South American summer monsoon was part of near-global scale climate excursions.

Evaluation of the significance of abrupt changes in precipitation and runoff process in China

Science.gov (United States)

Xie, Ping; Wu, Ziyi; Sang, Yan-Fang; Gu, Haiting; Zhao, Yuxi; Singh, Vijay P.

2018-05-01

Abrupt changes are an important manifestation of hydrological variability. How to accurately detect the abrupt changes in hydrological time series and evaluate their significance is an important issue, but methods for dealing with them effectively are lacking. In this study, we propose an approach to evaluate the significance of abrupt changes in time series at five levels: no, weak, moderate, strong, and dramatic. The approach was based on an index of correlation coefficient calculated for the original time series and its abrupt change component. A bigger value of correlation coefficient reflects a higher significance level of abrupt change. Results of Monte-Carlo experiments verified the reliability of the proposed approach, and also indicated the great influence of statistical characteristics of time series on the significance level of abrupt change. The approach was derived from the relationship between correlation coefficient index and abrupt change, and can estimate and grade the significance levels of abrupt changes in hydrological time series. Application of the proposed approach to ten major watersheds in China showed that abrupt changes mainly occurred in five watersheds in northern China, which have arid or semi-arid climate and severe shortages of water resources. Runoff processes in northern China were more sensitive to precipitation change than those in southern China. Although annual precipitation and surface water resources amount (SWRA) exhibited a harmonious relationship in most watersheds, abrupt changes in the latter were more significant. Compared with abrupt changes in annual precipitation, human activities contributed much more to the abrupt changes in the corresponding SWRA, except for the Northwest Inland River watershed.

Are abrupt climate changes predictable?

Science.gov (United States)

Ditlevsen, Peter

2013-04-01

It is taken for granted that the limited predictability in the initial value problem, the weather prediction, and the predictability of the statistics are two distinct problems. Lorenz (1975) dubbed this predictability of the first and the second kind respectively. Predictability of the first kind in a chaotic dynamical system is limited due to the well-known critical dependence on initial conditions. Predictability of the second kind is possible in an ergodic system, where either the dynamics is known and the phase space attractor can be characterized by simulation or the system can be observed for such long times that the statistics can be obtained from temporal averaging, assuming that the attractor does not change in time. For the climate system the distinction between predictability of the first and the second kind is fuzzy. This difficulty in distinction between predictability of the first and of the second kind is related to the lack of scale separation between fast and slow components of the climate system. The non-linear nature of the problem furthermore opens the possibility of multiple attractors, or multiple quasi-steady states. As the ice-core records show, the climate has been jumping between different quasi-stationary climates, stadials and interstadials through the Dansgaard-Oechger events. Such a jump happens very fast when a critical tipping point has been reached. The question is: Can such a tipping point be predicted? This is a new kind of predictability: the third kind. If the tipping point is reached through a bifurcation, where the stability of the system is governed by some control parameter, changing in a predictable way to a critical value, the tipping is predictable. If the sudden jump occurs because internal chaotic fluctuations, noise, push the system across a barrier, the tipping is as unpredictable as the triggering noise. In order to hint at an answer to this question, a careful analysis of the high temporal resolution NGRIP isotope

Linking the uncertainty of low frequency variability in tropical forcing in regional climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Forest, Chris E. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States). Dept. of Meteorology; Barsugli, Joseph J. [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). CIRES; Li, Wei [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States). Dept. of Meteorology

2015-02-20

The project utilizes multiple atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) to examine the regional climate sensitivity to tropical sea surface temperature forcing through a series of ensemble experiments. The overall goal for this work is to use the global teleconnection operator (GTO) as a metric to assess the impact of model structural differences on the uncertainties in regional climate variability.

Estimating productivity of tropical forest plantations by climatic factors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pandey, D.

1996-12-31

This study presents an alternative method of estimating wood production at regional/global levels from tropical plantations based on climatic variables. A generic model for estimating potential yield in tropical plantations was formulated. The model was developed for teak (Tectona grandis L. F.) as a case study. Available data of teak sample plots from India, Myanmar, Indonesia, Nigeria and Ivory Coast, consisting of 153 plots distributed over 38 meteorological stations were used. A new base age invariant site index function was developed and the site index of each plot was estimated. The mean annual volume increment (MAI) of each plot from existing yield tables was then interpolated. Treating MAI at 50 years (rotation age) as potential yield of teak, a model was constructed which could explain about 59% variance of the potential yield. Models constructed for estimating the maximum MAI and the site index of teak explained the variability up to 61% and 57% respectively. The models underestimated the productivity of teak in Indonesia, Nigeria and Ivory Coast. The rainfall and the relative humidity have been identified as the most important climatic variables influencing the growth of teak. The length of the growing season and the temperature of the warmest month of the growing season were found significant in the models. The temperature and the day length (sunshine) have not been found to be the limiting factors for the growth of teak. However, the maximum temperature beyond a certain upper limit has a negative effect on growth. The study indicates that this upper limit is around 33 deg C for teak. The models could be used to forecast the potential yield of the existing as well as planned teak plantations in the tropical region. 109 refs, 15 figs, 11 tabs

Water vapour source impacts on oxygen isotope variability in tropical precipitation during Heinrich events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. C. Lewis

2010-06-01

Full Text Available Water isotope records such as speleothems provide extensive evidence of past tropical hydrological changes. During Heinrich events, isotopic changes in monsoon regions have been interpreted as implying a widespread drying through the Northern Hemisphere tropics and an anti-phased precipitation response in the south. Here, we examine the sources of this variability using a water isotope-enabled general circulation model, Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE. We incorporate a new suite of vapour source distribution tracers to help constrain the impact of precipitation source region changes on the isotopic composition of precipitation and to identify nonlocal amount effects. We simulate a collapse of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation with a large freshwater input to the region as an idealised analogue to iceberg discharge during Heinrich events. An increase in monsoon intensity, defined by vertical wind shear, is modelled over the South American domain, with small decreases simulated over Asia. Simulated isotopic anomalies agree well with proxy climate records, with lighter isotopic values simulated over South America and enriched values across East Asia. For this particular abrupt climate event, we identify which climatic change is most likely linked to water isotope change – changes in local precipitation amount, monsoon intensity, water vapour source distributions or precipitation seasonality. We categorise individual sites according to the climate variability that water isotope changes are most closely associated with, and find that the dominant isotopic controls are not consistent across the tropics – simple local explanations, in particular, fall short of explaining water isotope variability at all sites. Instead, the best interpretations appear to be site specific and often regional in scale.

Predicting Impact of Climate Change on Water Temperature and Dissolved Oxygen in Tropical Rivers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Al-Amin Danladi Bello

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Predicting the impact of climate change and human activities on river systems is imperative for effective management of aquatic ecosystems. Unique information can be derived that is critical to the survival of aquatic species under dynamic environmental conditions. Therefore, the response of a tropical river system under climate and land-use changes from the aspects of water temperature and dissolved oxygen concentration were evaluated. Nine designed projected climate change scenarios and three future land-use scenarios were integrated into the Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF model to determine the impact of climate change and land-use on water temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO concentration using basin-wide simulation of river system in Malaysia. The model performance coefficients showed a good correlation between simulated and observed streamflow, water temperature, and DO concentration in a monthly time step simulation. The Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency for streamflow was 0.88 for the calibration period and 0.82 for validation period. For water temperature and DO concentration, data from three stations were calibrated and the Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency for both water temperature and DO ranged from 0.53 to 0.70. The output of the calibrated model under climate change scenarios show that increased rainfall and air temperature do not affects DO concentration and water temperature as much as the condition of a decrease in rainfall and increase in air temperature. The regression model on changes in streamflow, DO concentration, and water temperature under the climate change scenarios illustrates that scenarios that produce high to moderate streamflow, produce small predicted change in water temperatures and DO concentrations compared with the scenarios that produced a low streamflow. It was observed that climate change slightly affects the relationship between water temperatures and DO concentrations in the tropical rivers that we

Understanding the geographic distribution of tropical cyclone formation for applications in climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Tory, Kevin J.; Ye, H.; Dare, R. A.

2018-04-01

Projections of Tropical cyclone (TC) formation under future climate scenarios are dependent on climate model simulations. However, many models produce unrealistic geographical distributions of TC formation, especially in the north and south Atlantic and eastern south Pacific TC basins. In order to improve confidence in projections it is important to understand the reasons behind these model errors. However, considerable effort is required to analyse the many models used in projection studies. To address this problem, a novel diagnostic is developed that provides compelling insight into why TCs form where they do, using a few summary diagrams. The diagnostic is developed after identifying a relationship between seasonal climatologies of atmospheric variables in 34 years of ECMWF reanalysis data, and TC detection distributions in the same data. Geographic boundaries of TC formation are constructed from four threshold quantities. TCs form where Emanuel's Maximum Potential Intensity, V_{{PI}}, exceeds 40 {ms}^{{ - 1}}, 700 hPa relative humidity, RH_{{700}}, exceeds 40%, and the magnitude of the difference in vector winds between 850 and 200 hPa, V_{{sh}}, is less than 20 {ms}^{{ - 1}}. The equatorial boundary is best defined by a composite quantity containing the ratio of absolute vorticity (η ) to the meridional gradient of absolute vorticity (β ^{*}), rather than η alone. {β ^*} is also identified as a potentially important ingredient for TC genesis indices. A comparison of detected Tropical Depression (TD) and Tropical Storm (TS) climatologies revealed TDs more readily intensify further to TS where {V_{PI}} is elevated and {V_{sh}} is relatively weak. The distributions of each threshold quantity identify the factors that favour and suppress TC formation throughout the tropics in the real world. This information can be used to understand why TC formation is poorly represented in some climate models, and shows potential for understanding anomalous TC formation

Climate Impacts on Soil Carbon Processes along an Elevation Gradient in the Tropical Luquillo Experimental Forest

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dingfang Chen

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Tropical forests play an important role in regulating the global climate and the carbon cycle. With the changing temperature and moisture along the elevation gradient, the Luquillo Experimental Forest in Northeastern Puerto Rico provides a natural approach to understand tropical forest ecosystems under climate change. In this study, we conducted a soil translocation experiment along an elevation gradient with decreasing temperature but increasing moisture to study the impacts of climate change on soil organic carbon (SOC and soil respiration. As the results showed, both soil carbon and the respiration rate were impacted by microclimate changes. The soils translocated from low elevation to high elevation showed an increased respiration rate with decreased SOC content at the end of the experiment, which indicated that the increased soil moisture and altered soil microbes might affect respiration rates. The soils translocated from high elevation to low elevation also showed an increased respiration rate with reduced SOC at the end of the experiment, indicating that increased temperature at low elevation enhanced decomposition rates. Temperature and initial soil source quality impacted soil respiration significantly. With the predicted warming climate in the Caribbean, these tropical soils at high elevations are at risk of releasing sequestered carbon into the atmosphere.

Hygroscopical behaviour of basic electrodes in a tropical humid climate. Comportamiento microscopico de ciertos electrodos revistidos de caracter basico en clima tropical humedo

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Valencia, E.; Galeano, N.J.

1993-01-01

The study of the wetting kynetics of basic electrodes in a tropical humid climate is very important since the water contained in them is the main source for the atomic hydrogen absorbed by the fused metal during electric arc welding. It is also the origin of multiple defects in the added metal. A calculating method is established for evaluating the kynetics of wetness incorporation to the coating of basic electrodes exposed to a humid tropical climate. The method is based on the Fick's diffusion equation for both adequate system geometry and boundary conditions, which allows the evaluation of the effective diffusion coefficient and critical times of exposure to the different environments, along with the packing and storage conditions of electrodes. (Author)

Hygroscopical behaviour of basic electrodes in a tropical humid climate. Comportamiento microscopico de ciertos electrodos revistidos de caracter basico en clima tropical humedo

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Valencia, E; Galeano, N J

1993-01-01

The study of the wetting kynetics of basic electrodes in a tropical humid climate is very important since the water contained in them is the main source for the atomic hydrogen absorbed by the fused metal during electric arc welding. It is also the origin of multiple defects in the added metal. A calculating method is established for evaluating the kynetics of wetness incorporation to the coating of basic electrodes exposed to a humid tropical climate. The method is based on the Fick's diffusion equation for both adequate system geometry and boundary conditions, which allows the evaluation of the effective diffusion coefficient and critical times of exposure to the different environments, along with the packing and storage conditions of electrodes. (Author)

An Ocean Biology-induced Negative Feedback on ENSO in the Tropical Pacific Climate System

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, R. H.

2016-02-01

Biological conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean (e.g., phytoplankton biomass) are strongly regulated by physical changes associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The existence and variation of phytoplankton biomass, in turn, act to modulate the vertical penetration of the incoming sunlight in the upper ocean, presenting an ocean biology-induced heating (OBH) effect on the climate system. Previously, a penetration depth of solar radiation in the upper ocean (Hp) is defined to describe the related bio-climate connections. Parameterized in terms of its relationship with the sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific, an empirical model for interannual Hp variability has been derived from remotely sensed ocean color data, which is incorporated into a hybrid coupled model (HCM) to represent OBH effects. In this paper, various HCM experiments are performed to demonstrate the bio-feedback onto ENSO, including a climatological Hp run (in which Hp is prescribed as seasonally varying only), interannual Hp runs (with different intensities of interannually varying OBH effects), and a run in which the sign of the OBH effect is artificially reversed. Significant modulating impacts on interannual variability are found in the HCM, characterized by a negative feedback between ocean biology and the climate system in the tropical Pacific: the stronger the OBH feedback, the weaker the interannual variability. Processes involved in the feedback are analyzed; it is illustrated that the SST is modulated indirectly by ocean dynamical processes induced by OBH. The significance and implication of the OBH effects are discussed for their roles in ENSO variability and model biases in the tropical Pacific.

Tropical vegetation evidence for rapid sea level changes associated with Heinrich Events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gonzalez, Catalina; Dupont, Lydie M, E-mail: catalina@uni-bremen.d, E-mail: dupont@uni-bremen.d [MARUM - Centre for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen, Leobener Strasse, D-28359 Germany (Germany)

2010-03-15

A Cariaco Basin pollen record shows the development of tropical salt marshes during marine isotope stage 3. Rapid and abrupt expansions of salt marsh vegetation in tropical South America are associated with north Atlantic Heinrich Events stadials (HE-stadials). Intervals of salt marsh expansion have an internal structure, which consists of a recurrent alternation of species that starts with pollen increments of Chenopodiaceae, that are followed by increments of grasses, and subsequently by increments of Cyperaceae. This pattern suggests a successional process that is determined by the close relationship between sea-level and plant community dynamics. The salt tolerant Chenopodiaceae, indicate hypersaline intertidal environments, which were most likely promoted by extremely dry atmospheric conditions. Rapid sea-level rise characterizes the onset of HE-stadials, causing the continued recruitment of pioneer species, which are the only ones tolerating rapid rates of disturbance. Once sea-level rise decelerates, marsh plants are able to trap and stabilize sediments, favouring the establishment of more competitive species. These results add to the scarce knowledge on the dynamics of tropical salt marsh ecosystems, and provide independent paleoclimatic evidence on sea-level changes following Antarctic climate variability.

Sensitivity of South American tropical climate to Last Glacial Maximum boundary conditions: focus on teleconnections with tropics and extratropics (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Khodri, M.; Kageyama, M.; Roche, D. M.

2009-12-01

dynamical equilibrium due to both reduced GHG and land ice sheets. We also show that the overall tropical Pacific circulation response to land ice albedo alone consists in a substantial thermo-dynamical stabilisation of the equatorial atmosphere. The upper troposphere warming spreading out from South East Central Pacific, analogous to the atmosphere response to El-Niño conditions, results in enhanced rainfall over Nordeste and Southeastern Brazil. Such tropics-tropics teleconnection is essential to explain the moistening of the southern tropics, amplifying thereby the influence of the extratropical atmosphere on the LGM tropical climate.

Extinction risks forced by climatic change and intraspecific variation in the thermal physiology of a tropical lizard.

Science.gov (United States)

Pontes-da-Silva, Emerson; Magnusson, William E; Sinervo, Barry; Caetano, Gabriel H; Miles, Donald B; Colli, Guarino R; Diele-Viegas, Luisa M; Fenker, Jessica; Santos, Juan C; Werneck, Fernanda P

2018-04-01

Temperature increases can impact biodiversity and predicting their effects is one of the main challenges facing global climate-change research. Ectotherms are sensitive to temperature change and, although predictions indicate that tropical species are highly vulnerable to global warming, they remain one of the least studied groups with respect to the extent of physiological variation and local extinction risks. We model the extinction risks for a tropical heliothermic teiid lizard (Kentropyx calcarata) integrating previously obtained information on intraspecific phylogeographic structure, eco-physiological traits and contemporary species distributions in the Amazon rainforest and its ecotone to the Cerrado savannah. We also investigated how thermal-biology traits vary throughout the species' geographic range and the consequences of such variation for lineage vulnerability. We show substantial variation in thermal tolerance of individuals among thermally distinct sites. Thermal critical limits were highly correlated with operative environmental temperatures. Our physiological/climatic model predicted relative extinction risks for local populations within clades of K. calcarata for 2050 ranging between 26.1% and 70.8%, while for 2070, extinction risks ranged from 52.8% to 92.8%. Our results support the hypothesis that tropical-lizard taxa are at high risk of local extinction caused by increasing temperatures. However, the thermo-physiological differences found across the species' distribution suggest that local adaptation may allow persistence of this tropical ectotherm in global warming scenarios. These results will serve as basis to further research to investigate the strength of local adaptation to climate change. Persistence of Kentropyx calcarata also depends on forest preservation, but the Amazon rainforest is currently under high deforestation rates. We argue that higher conservation priority is necessary so the Amazon rainforest can fulfill its capacity to

Warm Rain Processes Over the Tropical Oceans and Implications on Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.

2004-01-01

In this talk, we will first show results from TRMM regarding the characteristics of warm rains over the tropical oceans, and the dependence of rate of warm rain production on sea surface temperature. Results lead to the hypothesis that warm rain production efficiency, i.e., autoconversion, may be increased in a warm climate. We use the GEOS-II GCM to test this hypothesis. Our modeling results show that in a climate with increased rate of autoconversion, the total rain amount is increased, with warm rain contributing to a larger portion of the increase. The abundant rainout of warm precipitation at middle to low levels causes a reduction of high cloud cover due to the depletion of water available for ice-phase rain production. As a result, more isolated, but more intense penetrative convection develops. Results also show that increased autoconversion reduces the convective adjustment time scale tends, implying a faster recycling of atmospheric water. Most interestingly, the increased low level heating associated with warm rain leads to more energetic Madden and Julian oscillations in the tropics, with well-defined eastward propagation. While reducing the autoconversion leads to an abundant mix of westward and eastward tropical disturbance on daily to weekly time scales. The causes of the sensitivity of the dynamical regimes to the microphysics parameterization in the GCM will be discussed.

High-resolution Greenland Ice Core data show abrupt climate change happens in few years

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Steffensen, Jørgen Peder; Andersen, Katrine Krogh; Bigler, Matthias

2008-01-01

The last two abrupt warmings at the onset of our present warm interglacial period, interrupted by the Younger Dryas cooling event, were investigated at high temporal resolution from the North Greenland Ice Core Project ice core. The deuterium excess, a proxy of Greenland precipitation moisture...... source, switched mode within 1 to 3 years over these transitions and initiated a more gradual change (over 50 years) of the Greenland air temperature, as recorded by stable water isotopes. The onsets of both abrupt Greenland warmings were slightly preceded by decreasing Greenland dust deposition...

Climatic-Induced Shifts in the Distribution of Teak ( Tectona grandis) in Tropical Asia: Implications for Forest Management and Planning

Science.gov (United States)

Deb, Jiban Chandra; Phinn, Stuart; Butt, Nathalie; McAlpine, Clive A.

2017-09-01

Modelling the future suitable climate space for tree species has become a widely used tool for forest management planning under global climate change. Teak ( Tectona grandis) is one of the most valuable tropical hardwood species in the international timber market, and natural teak forests are distributed from India through Myanmar, Laos and Thailand. The extents of teak forests are shrinking due to deforestation and the local impacts of global climate change. However, the direct impacts of climate changes on the continental-scale distributions of native and non-native teak have not been examined. In this study, we developed a species distribution model for teak across its entire native distribution in tropical Asia, and its non-native distribution in Bangladesh. We used presence-only records of trees and twelve environmental variables that were most representative for current teak distributions in South and Southeast Asia. MaxEnt (maximum entropy) models were used to model the distributions of teak under current and future climate scenarios. We found that land use/land cover change and elevation were the two most important variables explaining the current and future distributions of native and non-native teak in tropical Asia. Changes in annual precipitation, precipitation seasonality and annual mean actual evapotranspiration may result in shifts in the distributions of teak across tropical Asia. We discuss the implications for the conservation of critical teak habitats, forest management planning, and risks of biological invasion that may occur due to its cultivation in non-native ranges.

Field study of thermal comfort in non-air-conditioned buildings in a tropical island climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Shilei; Pang, Bo; Qi, Yunfang; Fang, Kun

2018-01-01

The unique geographical location of Hainan makes its climate characteristics different from inland areas in China. The thermal comfort of Hainan also owes its uniqueness to its tropical island climate. In the past decades, there have been very few studies on thermal comfort of the residents in tropical island areas in China. A thermal environment test for different types of buildings in Hainan and a thermal comfort field investigation of 1944 subjects were conducted over a period of about two months. The results of the survey data show that a high humidity environment did not have a significant impact on human comfort. The neutral temperature for the residents in tropical island areas was 26.1 °C, and the acceptable temperature range of thermal comfort was from 23.1 °C to 29.1 °C. Residents living in tropical island areas showed higher heat resistance capacity, but lower cold tolerance than predicted. The neutral temperature for females (26.3 °C) was higher than for males (25.8 °C). Additionally, females were more sensitive to air temperature than males. The research conclusions can play a guiding role in the thermal environment design of green buildings in Hainan Province. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Intensity of Urban Heat Islands in Tropical and Temperate Climates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Margarete Cristiane de Costa Trindade Amorim

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Nowadays, most of the Earth’s population lives in urban areas. The replacement of vegetation by buildings and the general soil sealing, associated with human activity, lead to a rise in cities temperature, resulting in the formation of urban heat islands. This article aims to evaluate the intensity and the hourly maintenance of the atmospheric heat islands in two climates: one tropical (Presidente Prudente, Brazil and one temperate (Rennes, France throughout 2016. For this, air temperature and hourly averages were measured and calculated using both a HOBO datalogger (U23-002—protected under the same RS3 brand and weather stations Davis Vantage PRO 2. The daily evolution of the heat islands presented characteristics that varied according to the hours and seasons of the year. For both Rennes and Presidente Prudente, the largest magnitudes occurred overnight, being more greatly expressed in the tropical environment and during the driest months (winter in the tropical city and summer in the temperate one. The variability of synoptic conditions from one month to another also leads to a great heterogeneity of UHI intensity throughout the year.

Resilience and reliability of compact vertical-flow treatment wetlands designed for tropical climates.

Science.gov (United States)

Lombard-Latune, R; Pelus, L; Fina, N; L'Etang, F; Le Guennec, B; Molle, P

2018-06-10

Most of the tropical areas have sanitation problems to contend with. The French system of vertical-flow treatment wetlands (FS-VFTW) fed with raw wastewater could be a good water and sludge management solution. The purpose-adapted tropical design can reduce area requirement to below 1 m 2 /population equivalents (p.e.). The Taupinière FS-VFTW on Martinique Island was built according to this design, with one stage but with a saturated layer at the bottom of the filter and a simplified trickling filter (TF) added for further treatment to meet the high performances targeted. Unsaturated/saturated vertical-flow filters (US/S FS-VFTW) have shown improved performances on total nitrogen, carbon and suspended solids removal in temperate climates, but the performances in tropical conditions remain unknown. Here, we report on real-world-operation in the French Overseas Territories (FOT), the reliability and performances of this VFCW tropical-design. The system experienced loading conditions ranging from 30% to 165% of nominal carbonaceous biological oxygen demand (BOD 5 ), as well as tropical rainstorms that brought over 7 times the nominal hydraulic load. Over a period of 3 years, 29 campaigns collected 24-h flow-proportional samples at each treatment stage (raw wastewater, FS-VFTW outlet, TF outlet). When applied loads were close to nominal values, the US/S FS-VFTW itself guarantees 85/90/60/50% removal and 125/25/40/50 mg/L at the outlet for chemical oxygen demand (COD)/total suspended solids (TSS)/total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN)/total nitrogen (TN), respectively. By comparison with US/S systems in mainland France, it appears that the warmer tropical-climate temperatures facilitate both nitrification and denitrification kinetics. Performances in overload conditions confirm that the US/S FS-VFTW remains robust and reliable although COD and TKN removal are impacted, especially after strong tropical rain events. By adding a simple compact trickling filter to a US/S FS

Quantification of regional radiative impacts and climate effects of tropical fire aerosols

Science.gov (United States)

Tosca, M. G.; Zender, C. S.; Randerson, J. T.

2011-12-01

Regionally expansive smoke clouds originating from deforestation fires in Indonesia can modify local precipitation patterns via direct aerosol scattering and absorption of solar radiation (Tosca et al., 2010). Here we quantify the regional climate impacts of fire aerosols for three tropical burning regions that together account for about 70% of global annual fire emissions. We use the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5) coupled to a slab ocean model (SOM) embedded within the Community Earth System Model (CESM). In addition to direct aerosol radiative effects, CAM5 also quantifies indirect, semi-direct and cloud microphysical aerosol effects. Climate impacts are determined using regionally adjusted emissions data that produce realistic aerosol optical depths in CAM5. We first analyzed a single 12-year transient simulation (1996-2007) forced with unadjusted emissions estimates from the Global Fire Emissions Database, version 3 (GFEDv3) and compared the resulting aerosol optical depths (AODs) for 4 different burning regions (equatorial Asia, southern Africa, South America and boreal North America) to observed MISR and MODIS AODs for the same period. Based on this analysis we adjusted emissions for each burning region between 150 and 300% and forced a second simulation with the regionally adjusted emissions. Improved AODs from this simulation are compared to AERONET observations available at 15 stations throughout the tropics. We present here two transient simulations--one with the adjusted fire emissions and one without fires--to quantify the cumulative fire aerosol climate impact for three major tropical burning regions (equatorial Asia, southern Africa and South America). Specifically, we quantify smoke effects on radiation, precipitation, and temperature. References Tosca, M.G., J.T. Randerson, C.S. Zender, M.G. Flanner and P.J. Rasch (2010), Do biomass burning aerosols intensify drought in equatorial Asia during El Nino?, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 3515

Timeslice experiments for understanding regional climate projections: applications to the tropical hydrological cycle and European winter circulation

Science.gov (United States)

Chadwick, Robin; Douville, Hervé; Skinner, Christopher B.

2017-11-01

A set of atmosphere-only timeslice experiments are described, designed to examine the processes that cause regional climate change and inter-model uncertainty in coupled climate model responses to CO_2 forcing. The timeslice experiments are able to reproduce the pattern of regional climate change in the coupled models, and are applied here to two cases where inter-model uncertainty in future projections is large: the tropical hydrological cycle, and European winter circulation. In tropical forest regions, the plant physiological effect is the largest cause of hydrological cycle change in the two models that represent this process. This suggests that the CMIP5 ensemble mean may be underestimating the magnitude of water cycle change in these regions, due to the inclusion of models without the plant effect. SST pattern change is the dominant cause of precipitation and circulation change over the tropical oceans, and also appears to contribute to inter-model uncertainty in precipitation change over tropical land regions. Over Europe and the North Atlantic, uniform SST increases drive a poleward shift of the storm-track. However this does not consistently translate into an overall polewards storm-track shift, due to large circulation responses to SST pattern change, which varies across the models. Coupled model SST biases influence regional rainfall projections in regions such as the Maritime Continent, and so projections in these regions should be treated with caution.

Extrinsic regime shifts drive abrupt changes in regeneration dynamics at upper treeline in the Rocky Mountains, U.S.A.

Science.gov (United States)

Elliott, Grant P

2012-07-01

Given the widespread and often dramatic influence of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems, it is increasingly common for abrupt threshold changes to occur, yet explicitly testing for climate and ecological regime shifts is lacking in climatically sensitive upper treeline ecotones. In this study, quantitative evidence based on empirical data is provided to support the key role of extrinsic, climate-induced thresholds in governing the spatial and temporal patterns of tree establishment in these high-elevation environments. Dendroecological techniques were used to reconstruct a 420-year history of regeneration dynamics within upper treeline ecotones along a latitudinal gradient (approximately 44-35 degrees N) in the Rocky Mountains. Correlation analysis was used to assess the possible influence of minimum and maximum temperature indices and cool-season (November-April) precipitation on regional age-structure data. Regime-shift analysis was used to detect thresholds in tree establishment during the entire period of record (1580-2000), temperature variables significantly Correlated with establishment during the 20th century, and cool-season precipitation. Tree establishment was significantly correlated with minimum temperature during the spring (March-May) and cool season. Regime-shift analysis identified an abrupt increase in regional tree establishment in 1950 (1950-1954 age class). Coincident with this period was a shift toward reduced cool-season precipitation. The alignment of these climate conditions apparently triggered an abrupt increase in establishment that was unprecedented during the period of record. Two main findings emerge from this research that underscore the critical role of climate in governing regeneration dynamics within upper treeline ecotones. (1) Regional climate variability is capable of exceeding bioclimatic thresholds, thereby initiating synchronous and abrupt changes in the spatial and temporal patterns of tree establishment at broad

The response of land-falling tropical cyclone characteristics to projected climate change in northeast Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Parker, Chelsea L.; Bruyère, Cindy L.; Mooney, Priscilla A.; Lynch, Amanda H.

2018-01-01

Land-falling tropical cyclones along the Queensland coastline can result in serious and widespread damage. However, the effects of climate change on cyclone characteristics such as intensity, trajectory, rainfall, and especially translation speed and size are not well-understood. This study explores the relative change in the characteristics of three case studies by comparing the simulated tropical cyclones under current climate conditions with simulations of the same systems under future climate conditions. Simulations are performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model and environmental conditions for the future climate are obtained from the Community Earth System Model using a pseudo global warming technique. Results demonstrate a consistent response of increasing intensity through reduced central pressure (by up to 11 hPa), increased wind speeds (by 5-10% on average), and increased rainfall (by up to 27% for average hourly rainfall rates). The responses of other characteristics were variable and governed by either the location and trajectory of the current climate cyclone or the change in the steering flow. The cyclone that traveled furthest poleward encountered a larger climate perturbation, resulting in a larger proportional increase in size, rainfall rate, and wind speeds. The projected monthly average change in the 500 mb winds with climate change governed the alteration in the both the trajectory and translation speed for each case. The simulated changes have serious implications for damage to coastal settlements, infrastructure, and ecosystems through increased wind speeds, storm surge, rainfall, and potentially increased size of some systems.

Constraining Transient Climate Sensitivity Using Coupled Climate Model Simulations of Volcanic Eruptions

KAUST Repository

Merlis, Timothy M.; Held, Isaac M.; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Zeng, Fanrong; Horowitz, Larry W.

2014-01-01

Coupled climate model simulations of volcanic eruptions and abrupt changes in CO2 concentration are compared in multiple realizations of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1). The change in global-mean surface temperature (GMST) is analyzed to determine whether a fast component of the climate sensitivity of relevance to the transient climate response (TCR; defined with the 1%yr-1 CO2-increase scenario) can be estimated from shorter-time-scale climate changes. The fast component of the climate sensitivity estimated from the response of the climate model to volcanic forcing is similar to that of the simulations forced by abrupt CO2 changes but is 5%-15% smaller than the TCR. In addition, the partition between the top-of-atmosphere radiative restoring and ocean heat uptake is similar across radiative forcing agents. The possible asymmetry between warming and cooling climate perturbations, which may affect the utility of volcanic eruptions for estimating the TCR, is assessed by comparing simulations of abrupt CO2 doubling to abrupt CO2 halving. There is slightly less (~5%) GMST change in 0.5 × CO2 simulations than in 2 × CO2 simulations on the short (~10 yr) time scales relevant to the fast component of the volcanic signal. However, inferring the TCR from volcanic eruptions is more sensitive to uncertainties from internal climate variability and the estimation procedure. The response of the GMST to volcanic eruptions is similar in GFDL CM2.1 and GFDL Climate Model, version 3 (CM3), even though the latter has a higher TCR associated with a multidecadal time scale in its response. This is consistent with the expectation that the fast component of the climate sensitivity inferred from volcanic eruptions is a lower bound for the TCR.

Constraining Transient Climate Sensitivity Using Coupled Climate Model Simulations of Volcanic Eruptions

KAUST Repository

Merlis, Timothy M.

2014-10-01

Coupled climate model simulations of volcanic eruptions and abrupt changes in CO2 concentration are compared in multiple realizations of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1). The change in global-mean surface temperature (GMST) is analyzed to determine whether a fast component of the climate sensitivity of relevance to the transient climate response (TCR; defined with the 1%yr-1 CO2-increase scenario) can be estimated from shorter-time-scale climate changes. The fast component of the climate sensitivity estimated from the response of the climate model to volcanic forcing is similar to that of the simulations forced by abrupt CO2 changes but is 5%-15% smaller than the TCR. In addition, the partition between the top-of-atmosphere radiative restoring and ocean heat uptake is similar across radiative forcing agents. The possible asymmetry between warming and cooling climate perturbations, which may affect the utility of volcanic eruptions for estimating the TCR, is assessed by comparing simulations of abrupt CO2 doubling to abrupt CO2 halving. There is slightly less (~5%) GMST change in 0.5 × CO2 simulations than in 2 × CO2 simulations on the short (~10 yr) time scales relevant to the fast component of the volcanic signal. However, inferring the TCR from volcanic eruptions is more sensitive to uncertainties from internal climate variability and the estimation procedure. The response of the GMST to volcanic eruptions is similar in GFDL CM2.1 and GFDL Climate Model, version 3 (CM3), even though the latter has a higher TCR associated with a multidecadal time scale in its response. This is consistent with the expectation that the fast component of the climate sensitivity inferred from volcanic eruptions is a lower bound for the TCR.

Synchronous fire activity in the tropical high Andes: an indication of regional climate forcing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Roman-Cuesta, R.M.; Carmona-Moreno, C.; Lizcano, G.; New, M.; Silman, M.R.; Knoke, T.; Malhi, Y.; Oliveras Menor, I.; Asbjornsen, H.; Vuille, M.

2014-01-01

Global climate models suggest enhanced warming of the tropical mid and upper troposphere, with larger temperature rise rates at higher elevations. Changes in fire activity are amongst the most significant ecological consequences of rising temperatures and changing hydrological properties in

The Abrupt Onset of the Modern South Asian Monsoon Winds (iodp Exp. 359)

Science.gov (United States)

Betzler, C.; Eberli, G. P.; Kroon, D.; Wright, J. D.; Swart, P. K.; Nath, B. N.; Reijmer, J.; Alvarez Zarikian, C. A.

2016-12-01

The South Asian Monson (SAM) is one of the most extreme features in Earth's climate system, yet its initiation and variations are not well established. The SAM is a seasonal reversal of winds accompanied by changes in precipitation with heavy rain during the summer monsoon. It is one of the most intense annually recurring climatic elements and of immense importance in supplying moisture to the Indian subcontinent thus affecting human population and vegetation, as well as marine biota in the surrounding seas. The seasonal precipitation change is one of the SAM elements most noticed on land, whereas the reversal of the wind regime is the dominating driver of circulation in the central and northern Indian Ocean realm. New data acquired during International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 359 from the Inner Sea of the Maldives provide a previously unread archive that reveals an abrupt onset of the SAM-linked ocean circulation pattern and its relationship to the long term Neogene climate cooling. In particular it registers ocean current fluctuations and changes of intermediate water mass properties for the last 25 myrs that are directly related to the monsoon. Dating the deposits of SAM wind-driven currents yields an age of 12.9 Ma indicating an abrupt SAM onset, over a short period of 300 kyrs. This coincided with the Indian Ocean Oxygen Minimum Zone expansion as revealed by geochemical tracers and the onset of upwelling reflected by the sediment's content of sedimentary organic matter. A weaker `proto-monsoon' existed between 12.9 and 25 Ma, as mirrored by the sedimentary signature of dust influx. Abrupt SAM initiation favors a strong influence of climate in addition to the tectonic control, and we propose that the post Miocene Climate Optimum cooling, together with increased continentalization and establishment of the bipolar ocean circulation, i.e. the beginning of the modern world, shifted the monsoon over a threshold towards the modern system.

Synchronous fire activity in the tropical high Andes: an indication of regional climate forcing.

Science.gov (United States)

Román-Cuesta, R M; Carmona-Moreno, C; Lizcano, G; New, M; Silman, M; Knoke, T; Malhi, Y; Oliveras, I; Asbjornsen, H; Vuille, M

2014-06-01

Global climate models suggest enhanced warming of the tropical mid and upper troposphere, with larger temperature rise rates at higher elevations. Changes in fire activity are amongst the most significant ecological consequences of rising temperatures and changing hydrological properties in mountainous ecosystems, and there is a global evidence of increased fire activity with elevation. Whilst fire research has become popular in the tropical lowlands, much less is known of the tropical high Andean region (>2000 masl, from Colombia to Bolivia). This study examines fire trends in the high Andes for three ecosystems, the Puna, the Paramo and the Yungas, for the period 1982-2006. We pose three questions: (i) is there an increased fire response with elevation? (ii) does the El Niño- Southern Oscillation control fire activity in this region? (iii) are the observed fire trends human driven (e.g., human practices and their effects on fuel build-up) or climate driven? We did not find evidence of increased fire activity with elevation but, instead, a quasicyclic and synchronous fire response in Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia, suggesting the influence of high-frequency climate forcing on fire responses on a subcontinental scale, in the high Andes. ENSO variability did not show a significant relation to fire activity for these three countries, partly because ENSO variability did not significantly relate to precipitation extremes, although it strongly did to temperature extremes. Whilst ENSO did not individually lead the observed regional fire trends, our results suggest a climate influence on fire activity, mainly through a sawtooth pattern of precipitation (increased rainfall before fire-peak seasons (t-1) followed by drought spells and unusual low temperatures (t0), which is particularly common where fire is carried by low fuel loads (e.g., grasslands and fine fuel). This climatic sawtooth appeared as the main driver of fire trends, above local human influences and fuel build

Climate bifurcation during the last deglaciation?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lenton, T.M.; Livina, V.N.; Dakos, V.; Scheffer, M.

2012-01-01

There were two abrupt warming events during the last deglaciation, at the start of the Bolling-Allerod and at the end of the Younger Dryas, but their underlying dynamics are unclear. Some abrupt climate changes may involve gradual forcing past a bifurcation point, in which a prevailing climate state

The tropicalization of temperate marine ecosystems: climate-mediated changes in herbivory and community phase shifts

Science.gov (United States)

Vergés, Adriana; Steinberg, Peter D.; Hay, Mark E.; Poore, Alistair G. B.; Campbell, Alexandra H.; Ballesteros, Enric; Heck, Kenneth L.; Booth, David J.; Coleman, Melinda A.; Feary, David A.; Figueira, Will; Langlois, Tim; Marzinelli, Ezequiel M.; Mizerek, Toni; Mumby, Peter J.; Nakamura, Yohei; Roughan, Moninya; van Sebille, Erik; Gupta, Alex Sen; Smale, Dan A.; Tomas, Fiona; Wernberg, Thomas; Wilson, Shaun K.

2014-01-01

Climate-driven changes in biotic interactions can profoundly alter ecological communities, particularly when they impact foundation species. In marine systems, changes in herbivory and the consequent loss of dominant habitat forming species can result in dramatic community phase shifts, such as from coral to macroalgal dominance when tropical fish herbivory decreases, and from algal forests to ‘barrens’ when temperate urchin grazing increases. Here, we propose a novel phase-shift away from macroalgal dominance caused by tropical herbivores extending their range into temperate regions. We argue that this phase shift is facilitated by poleward-flowing boundary currents that are creating ocean warming hotspots around the globe, enabling the range expansion of tropical species and increasing their grazing rates in temperate areas. Overgrazing of temperate macroalgae by tropical herbivorous fishes has already occurred in Japan and the Mediterranean. Emerging evidence suggests similar phenomena are occurring in other temperate regions, with increasing occurrence of tropical fishes on temperate reefs. PMID:25009065

Dynamic vegetation modeling of tropical biomes during Heinrich events

Science.gov (United States)

Handiani, Dian Noor; Paul, André; Dupont, Lydie M.

2010-05-01

Heinrich events are thought to be associated with a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which in turn would lead to a cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean and a warming of the South Atlantic Ocean (the "bipolar seesaw" hypothesis). The accompanying abrupt climate changes occurred not only in the ocean but also on the continents. Changes were strongest in the Northern Hemisphere but were registered in the tropics as well. Pollen data from Angola and Brazil showed that climate changes during Heinrich events affected vegetation patterns very differently in eastern South America and western Africa. To understand the differential response in the terrestrial tropics, we studied the vegetation changes during Heinrich events by using a dynamic global vegetation model (TRIFFID) as part of the University of Victoria (UVic) Earth System-Climate Model (ESCM). The model results show a bipolar seesaw pattern in temperature and precipitation during a near-collapse of the AMOC. The succession in plant-functional types (PFTs) showed changes from forest to shrubs to desert, including spreading desert in northwest Africa, retreating broadleaf trees in West Africa and northern South America, but advancing broadleaf trees in Brazil. The pattern is explained by a southward shift of the tropical rainbelt resulting in a strong decrease in precipitation over northwest and West Africa as well as in northern South America, but an increase in precipitation in eastern Brazil. To facilitate the comparison between modeled vegetation results with pollen data, we diagnosed the distribution of biomes from the PFT coverage and the simulated model climate. The biome distribution was computed for Heinrich event 1 and the Last Glacial Maximum as well as for pre-industrial conditions. We used a classification of biomes in terms of "mega-biomes", which were defined following a scheme originally proposed by BIOME 6000 (v 4.2). The biome distribution of the Sahel region

Internal Variability and Disequilibrium Confound Estimates of Climate Sensitivity From Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Marvel, Kate; Pincus, Robert; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Miller, Ron L.

2018-02-01

An emerging literature suggests that estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) derived from recent observations and energy balance models are biased low because models project more positive climate feedback in the far future. Here we use simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to show that across models, ECS inferred from the recent historical period (1979-2005) is indeed almost uniformly lower than that inferred from simulations subject to abrupt increases in CO2 radiative forcing. However, ECS inferred from simulations in which sea surface temperatures are prescribed according to observations is lower still. ECS inferred from simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures is strongly linked to changes to tropical marine low clouds. However, feedbacks from these clouds are a weak constraint on long-term model ECS. One interpretation is that observations of recent climate changes constitute a poor direct proxy for long-term sensitivity.

Sensitivity of the tropical climate to an interhemispheric thermal gradient: the role of tropical ocean dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Talento, Stefanie; Barreiro, Marcelo

2018-03-01

This study aims to determine the role of the tropical ocean dynamics in the response of the climate to extratropical thermal forcing. We analyse and compare the outcomes of coupling an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) with two ocean models of different complexity. In the first configuration the AGCM is coupled with a slab ocean model while in the second a reduced gravity ocean (RGO) model is additionally coupled in the tropical region. We find that the imposition of extratropical thermal forcing (warming in the Northern Hemisphere and cooling in the Southern Hemisphere with zero global mean) produces, in terms of annual means, a weaker response when the RGO is coupled, thus indicating that the tropical ocean dynamics oppose the incoming remote signal. On the other hand, while the slab ocean coupling does not produce significant changes to the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) seasonal cycle, the RGO configuration generates strong warming in the central-eastern basin from April to August balanced by cooling during the rest of the year, strengthening the seasonal cycle in the eastern portion of the basin. We hypothesize that such changes are possible via the dynamical effect that zonal wind stress has on the thermocline depth. We also find that the imposed extratropical pattern affects El Niño-Southern Oscillation, weakening its amplitude and low-frequency behaviour.

Do the Atlantic climate modes impact the ventilation of the eastern tropical North Atlantic oxygen minimum zones?

Science.gov (United States)

Burmeister, Kristin; Lübbecke, Joke F.

2017-04-01

Oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) exist in the upwelling regions of the eastern tropical Atlantic and Pacific at intermediate depth. They are a consequence of high biological productivity in combination with weak ventilation. The flow fields in the tropical Atlantic is characterized by Latitudinally Alternating Zonal Jets (LAZJs) with a large vertical scale. It has been suggested that LAZJs play an important role for the ventilation of the OMZ as eastward currents advect oxygen-rich waters from the western boundary towards the OMZ. In the Eastern Tropical North Atlantic (ETNA), the eastward flowing North Equatorial Undercurrent and North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC) provide the main oxygen supply into the OMZ. Variability in the strength and location of the LAZJs is associated with oxygen variability in the ETNA OMZ. We here want to address the question whether the variability in the zonal current field can be partly attributed to the large-scale climate modes of the tropical Atlantic, namely the Atlantic zonal and meridional mode. An influence of these modes on the NECC has been found in previous studies. For the analysis we are using the output of a global ocean circulation model, in which a 1/10° nest covering the tropical Atlantic is embedded into a global 1/2° model, as well as reanalysis products and satellite data. The zonal current field and oxygen distribution from the high resolution model is compared to observational data. The location and intensity of the current bands during positive and negative phases of the Atlantic climate modes are compared by focusing on individual events and via composite analysis. Based on the results, the potential impact of the Atlantic climate modes on the ventilation of the ETNA OMZ is discussed.

Vegetation Structure and Temperature Regimes of Tropical Alpine Treelines

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bader, M.Y.; Rietkerk, M.G.; Bregt, A.K.

2007-01-01

Alpine treeline ecotones can be gradual transitions, abrupt boundaries, or patchy mosaics, and these different patterns may indicate important processes and dynamic properties. We present observed spatial patterns of a wide range of tropical treelines and try to explain these patterns. Treelines

Vegetation structure and temperature regimes of tropical alpine treelines

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bader, M.; Rietkerk, M.; Bregt, A.K.

2007-01-01

Alpine treeline ecotones can be gradual transitions, abrupt boundaries, or patchy mosaics, and these different patterns may indicate important processes and dynamic properties. We present observed spatial patterns of a wide range of tropical treelines and try to explain these patterns. Treelines

Climatology of extratropical transition for North Atlantic tropical cyclones in the high-resolution GFDL climate model

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, M.; Vecchi, G. A.; Smith, J. A.

2015-12-01

The extratropical transition (ET) process of tropical cyclones can lead to fundamental changes in hurricane structure and storms that continue to pose large threats to life and properties. Given the importance of ET, it is necessary to understand how ET changes under a warming climate. Towards this goal, the GFDL climate model (FLOR) is first used to understand the current-day ET climatology. The standard model and a flux-adjusted version of FLOR are both used to examine ET climatology. The operational cyclone phase space method is used to define the onset and completion times of ET. The ET climatology from the climate model is compared with those from two reanalysis data sets ranging from 1979 to 2012. Both models exhibit good skills at simulating the frequency map of phase space diagram. The flux-adjusted version shows much better skill in capturing the ET climatology in terms of ET track patterns, ET locations and monthly ET variations. The model is able to simulate the frequency ratio of reintensified tropical cyclones from all ET cases. Future work involves examining changes in the ET climatology under a changing climate.

Assessment of the tropical Indo-Pacific climate in the SINTEX CGCM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Delecluse

2003-06-01

Full Text Available A new coupled GCM (SINTEX has been developed. The model is formed by the atmosphere model ECHAM-4 and the ocean model ORCA. The atmospheric and oceanic components are coupled through OASIS. The domain is global and no flux correction is applied. In this study, we describe the ability of the coupled model to simulate the main features of the observed climate and its dominant modes of variability in the tropical Indo-Pacific. Three long experiments have been performed with different horizontal resolution of the atmospheric component in order to assess a possible impact of the atmosphere model resolution onto the simulated climate. Overall, the mean state is captured reasonably well, though the simulated SST tends to be too warm in the tropical Eastern Pacific and there is a model tendency to produce a double ITCZ. The model gives also a realistic representation of the temperature structure at the equator in the Pacific and Indian Ocean. The slope and the structure of the equatorial thermocline are well reproduced. Compared to the observations, the simulated annual cycle appears to be underestimated in the eastern equatorial Pacific, whereas a too pronounced seasonal variation is found in the Central Pacific. The main basic features of the interannual variability in the tropical Indo-Pacific region are reasonably well reproduced by the model. In the Indian Ocean, the characteristics of the simulated interannual variability are very similar to the results found from the observations. In the Pacific, the modelled ENSO variability appears to be slightly weaker and the simulated period a bit shorter than in the observations. Our results suggest that, both the simulated mean state and interannual variability are generally improved when the horizontal resolution of the atmospheric mode component is increased.

Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Services in High Mountain Areas: A Literature Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ignacio Palomo

2017-05-01

Full Text Available High mountain areas are experiencing some of the earliest and greatest impacts of climate change. However, knowledge on how climate change impacts multiple ecosystem services that benefit different stakeholder groups remains scattered in the literature. This article presents a review of the literature on climate change impacts on ecosystem services benefiting local communities and tourists in high mountain areas. Results show a lack of studies focused on the global South, especially where there are tropical glaciers, which are likely to be the first to disappear. Climate change impacts can be classified as impacts on food and feed, water availability, natural hazards regulation, spirituality and cultural identity, aesthetics, and recreation. In turn, climate change impacts on infrastructure and accessibility also affect ecosystem services. Several of these impacts are a direct threat to the lives of mountain peoples, their livelihoods and their culture. Mountain tourism is experiencing abrupt changes too. The magnitude of impacts make it necessary to strengthen measures to adapt to climate change in high mountain areas.

The role of climatic and terrain attributes in estimating baseflow recession in tropical catchments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. L. Peña-Arancibia

2010-11-01

Full Text Available The understanding of low flows in rivers is paramount more than ever as demand for water increases on a global scale. At the same time, limited streamflow data to investigate this phenomenon, particularly in the tropics, makes the provision of accurate estimations in ungauged areas an ongoing research need. This paper analysed the potential of climatic and terrain attributes of 167 tropical and sub-tropical unregulated catchments to predict baseflow recession rates. Daily streamflow data (m³ s^–1 from the Global River Discharge Center (GRDC and a linear reservoir model were used to obtain baseflow recession coefficients (k_bf for these catchments. Climatic attributes included annual and seasonal indicators of rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. Terrain attributes included indicators of catchment shape, morphology, land cover, soils and geology. Stepwise regression was used to identify the best predictors for baseflow recession coefficients. Mean annual rainfall (MAR and aridity index (AI were found to explain 49% of the spatial variation of k_bf. The rest of climatic indices and the terrain indices average catchment slope (SLO and tree cover were also good predictors, but co-correlated with MAR. Catchment elongation (CE, a measure of catchment shape, was also found to be statistically significant, although weakly correlated. An analysis of clusters of catchments of smaller size, showed that in these areas, presumably with some similarity of soils and geology due to proximity, residuals of the regression could be explained by SLO and CE. The approach used provides a potential alternative for k_bf parameterisation in ungauged catchments.

New insights into deglacial climate variability in tropical South America from molecular fossil and isotopic indicators in Lake Titicaca

Science.gov (United States)

Shanahan, T. M.; Hughen, K. A.; Fornace, K.; Baker, P. A.; Fritz, S. C.

2010-12-01

As one of the main centers of tropical convection, the South American Altiplano plays a crucial role in the long-term climate variability of South America. However, both the timing and the drivers of climate variability on orbital to millennial timescales remain poorly understood for this region. New data from molecular fossil (e.g., TEX86) and compound specific hydrogen isotope (D/H) analyses provide new insights into the climate evolution of this region over the last ~50 kyr. TEX86 temperature reconstructions suggest that the Altiplano warmed as early as 19- 21 kyr ago and proceeded rapidly, consistent with published evidence for an early retreat of LGM glaciers at this time at some locations. The early warming signal observed at Lake Titicaca also appears to be synchronous with continental temperature reconstructions at some sites in tropical Africa, but leads tropical SST changes by several thousands of years. Although the initiation of warming coincided with the peak in southern hemisphere summer insolation, subsequent temperature increases were accompanied by decreases in southern hemisphere insolation, suggesting a northern hemisphere driver for temperature changes in tropical South America. Preliminary D/H ratios from leaf waxes appear to support existing data suggesting that wet conditions prevailed until the late glacial/early Holocene and are broadly consistent with local southern hemisphere summer insolation forcing of the summer monsoon. These data suggest that temperature and precipitation changes during the last deglaciation were decoupled and that both local and extratropical drivers are important for controlling climate change in this region on orbital timescales.

Potential impacts of global warming on Australia's unique tropical biodiversity and implications for tropical biodiversity in general

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hilbert, David W

2007-01-01

Full text: Full text: Globally, forest clearing is often thought to be the greatest threat to biodiversity in the tropics, and rates of clearing are certainly highest there, particularly in tropical South-East Asia. Climate change in the tropics has been less studied in tropical regions than in temperate, boreal or arctic ecosystems. However, modelling studies in Australian rainforests indicate that climate change may be a particularly significant threat to the long-term preservation of the biodiversity of tropical, rainforest biodiversity. Our research has shown that global warming can have a particularly strong impact on the biodiversity of mountainous tropical regions, including the Wet Tropics of north-east Queensland. Here, the mountain tops and higher tablelands are relatively cool islands in a sea of warmer climates. These species-rich islands, mostly limited in their biodiversity by warm interglacial periods, are separated from each other by the warmer valleys and form a scattered archipelago of habitat for organisms that are unable to survive and reproduce in warmer climates. Many of the endemic Australian Wet Tropics species live only in these cooler regions. Similar situations occur throughout south-east Asia and in the highlands of the Neotropics. Unfortunately, these upland and highland areas represent the majority of biodiversity conservation areas because they are less suitable for clearing for agriculture. This presentation will summarise research about the potential impacts of climate change on the biodiversity in Australia's rainforests, the potential implications for tropical biodiversity in general and discuss the limitations of these projections and the need for further research that could reduce uncertainties and inform effective adaptation strategies

Abrupt increases in Amazonian tree mortality due to drought–fire interactions

Science.gov (United States)

Brando, Paulo Monteiro; Balch, Jennifer K.; Nepstad, Daniel C.; Morton, Douglas C.; Putz, Francis E.; Coe, Michael T.; Silvério, Divino; Macedo, Marcia N.; Davidson, Eric A.; Nóbrega, Caroline C.; Alencar, Ane; Soares-Filho, Britaldo S.

2014-01-01

Interactions between climate and land-use change may drive widespread degradation of Amazonian forests. High-intensity fires associated with extreme weather events could accelerate this degradation by abruptly increasing tree mortality, but this process remains poorly understood. Here we present, to our knowledge, the first field-based evidence of a tipping point in Amazon forests due to altered fire regimes. Based on results of a large-scale, long-term experiment with annual and triennial burn regimes (B1yr and B3yr, respectively) in the Amazon, we found abrupt increases in fire-induced tree mortality (226 and 462%) during a severe drought event, when fuel loads and air temperatures were substantially higher and relative humidity was lower than long-term averages. This threshold mortality response had a cascading effect, causing sharp declines in canopy cover (23 and 31%) and aboveground live biomass (12 and 30%) and favoring widespread invasion by flammable grasses across the forest edge area (80 and 63%), where fires were most intense (e.g., 220 and 820 kW⋅m−1). During the droughts of 2007 and 2010, regional forest fires burned 12 and 5% of southeastern Amazon forests, respectively, compared with Amazon forests. Future projections of vegetation responses to climate change across drier portions of the Amazon require more than simulation of global climate forcing alone and must also include interactions of extreme weather events, fire, and land-use change. PMID:24733937

Thermoregulatory responses and reproductive traits in composite beef bulls raised in a tropical climate

Science.gov (United States)

Romanello, Narian; de Brito Lourenço Junior, José; Barioni Junior, Waldomiro; Brandão, Felipe Zandonadi; Marcondes, Cintia Righetti; Pezzopane, José Ricardo Macedo; de Andrade Pantoja, Messy Hannear; Botta, Daniela; Giro, Alessandro; Moura, Ana Beatriz Bossois; do Nascimento Barreto, Andréa; Garcia, Alexandre Rossetto

2018-05-01

It is believed that increased livestock production is limited by tropical climate. Thermal imbalance in bulls can lead to hyperthermia and alter testicular metabolism, causing subfertility or infertility. Therefore, the thermoregulation of composite Canchim bulls (5/8 Charolais × 3/8 Zebu) raised in tropical climate as well as their consequences in the physiological, hematological, hormonal, and andrological parameters were evaluated monthly. The bulls (n = 18; 30.0 ± 1.5 months; 503.8 ± 23.0 kg) were kept on pasture, in a single group, from August 2015 to March 2016, comprising the winter, spring, and summer seasons. Biometeorological variables were continuously monitored, and the Temperature and Humidity Index (THI) was calculated. A greater thermal challenge occurred in spring and summer (THI ≥ 72.0). Nevertheless, the bulls exhibited normothermia (38.6 to 38.9 °C) in these seasons. The cortisol did not vary between seasons (7.0 vs. 8.7 vs. 6.8 ng/mL; P > 0.05) and remained within the physiological patterns. Independent of the seasons, stress leukogram was also not observed, refuting the incidence of acute or chronic thermal stress. It is noteworthy that T3 and testosterone increased (P < 0.0001, P < 0.05) in spring and summer, the time that coincides with the breeding season, when there is increased metabolic requirement from the bulls. The progressive thermal challenge increase did not affect the scrotal thermoregulatory capacity, and in general, scrotal temperature remained at 5.2 °C below the internal body temperature. In summer, there was a 5% reduction in the minor sperm defects (P < 0.05) and DNA fragmentation in 2.4% of spermatozoa, a compatible value for high fertility bulls. The results show that the studied composite bulls can be considered as climatically adapted and constitute a viable alternative to be used in production systems in a tropical climate, even if the breeding seasons occur during the most critical thermal condition periods of

Climate and vegetation changes around the Atlantic Ocean resulting from changes in the meridional overturning circulation during deglaciation

Science.gov (United States)

Handiani, D.; Paul, A.; Dupont, L.

2012-07-01

The Bølling-Allerød (BA, starting ~ 14.5 ka BP) is one of the most pronounced abrupt warming periods recorded in ice and pollen proxies. The leading explanation of the cause of this warming is a sudden increase in the rate of deepwater formation in the North Atlantic Ocean and the resulting effect on the heat transport by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). In this study, we used the University of Victoria (UVic) Earth System-Climate Model (ESCM) to run simulations, in which a freshwater perturbation initiated a BA-like warming period. We found that under present climate conditions, the AMOC intensified when freshwater was added to the Southern Ocean. However, under Heinrich event 1 (HE1, ~ 16 ka BP) climate conditions, the AMOC only intensified when freshwater was extracted from the North Atlantic Ocean, possibly corresponding to an increase in evaporation or a decrease in precipitation in this region. The intensified AMOC led to a warming in the North Atlantic Ocean and a cooling in the South Atlantic Ocean, resembling the bipolar seesaw pattern typical of the last glacial period. In addition to the physical response, we also studied the simulated vegetation response around the Atlantic Ocean region. Corresponding with the bipolar seesaw hypothesis, the rainbelt associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shifted northward and affected the vegetation pattern in the tropics. The most sensitive vegetation area was found in tropical Africa, where grass cover increased and tree cover decreased under dry climate conditions. An equal but opposite response to the collapse and recovery of the AMOC implied that the change in vegetation cover was transient and robust to an abrupt climate change such as during the BA period, which is also supported by paleovegetation data. The results are in agreement with paleovegetation records from Western tropical Africa, which also show a reduction in forest cover during this time period. Further

Impacts of Present and Future Climate Variability and Change on Agriculture and Forestry in the Arid and Semi-Arid Tropics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sivakumar, M.V.K. [World Meteorological Organization WMO, 7bis Avenue de la Paix, 1211 Geneva 2 (Switzerland); Das, H.P. [India Meteorological Department, Shivaji Nagar, Pune, 411005 (India); Brunini, O. [Center for Ecology and Biophysics, 13.020-430-Campinas, Sao Paulo (Brazil)

2005-05-01

The arid and semi-arid regions account for approximately 30% of the world total area and are inhabited by approximately 20% of the total world population. Issues of present and future climate variability and change on agriculture and forestry in the arid and semi-arid tropics of the world were examined and discussion under each of these issues had been presented separately for Asia, Africa and Latin America. Several countries in tropical Asia have reported increasing surface temperature trends in recent decades. Although, there is no definite trend discernible in the long-term mean for precipitation for the tropical Asian region, many countries have shown a decreasing trend in rainfall in the past three decades. African rainfall has changed substantially over the last 60 yr and a number of theoretical, modelling and empirical analyses have suggested that noticeable changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events, including floods may occur when there are only small changes in climate. Climate in Latin America is affected by the El Nino-southern oscillation (ENSO) phases and there is a close relationship between the increase and decrease of rainfall depending upon the warm or cold phases of the phenomenon. Over land regions of Asia, the projected area-averaged annual mean warming is likely to be 1.6 {+-} 0.2C in the 2020s, 3.1 {+-} 0.3C in the 2050s, and 4.6 {+-} 0.4C in the 2080s and the models show high uncertainty in projections of future winter and summer precipitation. Future annual warming across Africa is projected to range from 0.2C per decade to more than 0.5C per decade, while future changes in mean seasonal rainfall in Africa are less well defined. In Latin America, projections indicate a slight increase in temperature and changes in precipitation. Impacts of climate variability and changes are discussed with suitable examples. Agricultural productivity in tropical Asia is sensitive not only to temperature increases, but also to changes in the

Impacts of Present and Future Climate Variability and Change on Agriculture and Forestry in the Arid and Semi-Arid Tropics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sivakumar, M.V.K.; Das, H.P.; Brunini, O.

2005-01-01

The arid and semi-arid regions account for approximately 30% of the world total area and are inhabited by approximately 20% of the total world population. Issues of present and future climate variability and change on agriculture and forestry in the arid and semi-arid tropics of the world were examined and discussion under each of these issues had been presented separately for Asia, Africa and Latin America. Several countries in tropical Asia have reported increasing surface temperature trends in recent decades. Although, there is no definite trend discernible in the long-term mean for precipitation for the tropical Asian region, many countries have shown a decreasing trend in rainfall in the past three decades. African rainfall has changed substantially over the last 60 yr and a number of theoretical, modelling and empirical analyses have suggested that noticeable changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events, including floods may occur when there are only small changes in climate. Climate in Latin America is affected by the El Nino-southern oscillation (ENSO) phases and there is a close relationship between the increase and decrease of rainfall depending upon the warm or cold phases of the phenomenon. Over land regions of Asia, the projected area-averaged annual mean warming is likely to be 1.6 ± 0.2C in the 2020s, 3.1 ± 0.3C in the 2050s, and 4.6 ± 0.4C in the 2080s and the models show high uncertainty in projections of future winter and summer precipitation. Future annual warming across Africa is projected to range from 0.2C per decade to more than 0.5C per decade, while future changes in mean seasonal rainfall in Africa are less well defined. In Latin America, projections indicate a slight increase in temperature and changes in precipitation. Impacts of climate variability and changes are discussed with suitable examples. Agricultural productivity in tropical Asia is sensitive not only to temperature increases, but also to changes in the nature

Parks versus payments: reconciling divergent policy responses to biodiversity loss and climate change from tropical deforestation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Busch, Jonah; Grantham, Hedley S

2013-01-01

Biodiversity loss and climate change both result from tropical deforestation, yet strategies to address biodiversity loss have focused primarily on protected areas while strategies to address climate change have focused primarily on carbon payments. Conservation planning research has focused largely on where to prioritize protected areas to achieve the greatest representation of species at viable levels. Meanwhile research on reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) has focused largely on how to design payments to achieve the greatest additional reduction in greenhouse gases relative to baseline rates. This divergence of strategies and research agendas may be attributed to four factors: rare species are more heterogeneously distributed than carbon; species are more difficult to measure and monitor than carbon; species are more sensitive to ecological processes and human disturbance than carbon; and people’s value for species diminishes beyond a threshold while their value for carbon storage does not. Conservation planning can achieve greater biodiversity benefits by adopting the concept of additionality from REDD+. REDD+ can achieve greater climate benefits by incorporating spatial prioritization from conservation planning. Climate and biodiversity benefits can best be jointly achieved from tropical forests by targeting the most additional actions to the most important places. These concepts are illustrated using data from the forests of Indonesia. (letter)

Tropical cyclones and climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andre, J.C.; Royer, J.F.; Chauvin, F.

2008-01-01

Results from observations and modelling studies, a number of which having been used to support the conclusions of the IPCC fourth assessment report, are presented. For the past and present-day (since 1970) periods, the increase of strong cyclonic activity over the North Atlantic Ocean appears to be in good correlation with increasing temperature of the ocean surface. For regions where observational data are of lesser quality, the increasing trend is less clear. In fact, assessing long-term changes is made difficult due to both the multi-decennial natural variability and the lesser coverage of observations before satellites were made available. Indirect observational data, such as those derived from quantitative estimations of damage caused by tropical cyclones, suffer from many artefacts and do not allow the resolving of the issue either. For the future, only numerical three-dimensional climate models can be used. They nevertheless run presently with too-large grid-sizes, so that their results are still not converging. Various simulations lead indeed to different results, and it is very often difficult to find the physical reasons for these differences. One concludes by indicating some ways through which numerical simulations could be improved, leading to a decrease of uncertainties affecting the prediction of cyclonic activity over the next decades. (authors)

Impact of chlorophyll bias on the tropical Pacific mean climate in an earth system model

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, Hyung-Gyu; Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong

2017-12-01

Climate modeling groups nowadays develop earth system models (ESMs) by incorporating biogeochemical processes in their climate models. The ESMs, however, often show substantial bias in simulated marine biogeochemistry which can potentially introduce an undesirable bias in physical ocean fields through biogeophysical interactions. This study examines how and how much the chlorophyll bias in a state-of-the-art ESM affects the mean and seasonal cycle of tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST). The ESM used in the present study shows a sizeable positive bias in the simulated tropical chlorophyll. We found that the correction of the chlorophyll bias can reduce the ESM's intrinsic cold SST mean bias in the equatorial Pacific. The biologically-induced cold SST bias is strongly affected by seasonally-dependent air-sea coupling strength. In addition, the correction of chlorophyll bias can improve the annual cycle of SST by up to 25%. This result suggests a possible modeling approach in understanding the two-way interactions between physical and chlorophyll biases by biogeophysical effects.

Swimming-induced pulmonary edema in a tropical climate: a case report.

Science.gov (United States)

Kwek, Wmj; Seah, M; Chow, W

2017-01-01

Swimming-induced pulmonary edema (SIPE) occurs during strenuous physical exertion in cold water and has been reported in scuba divers, free-diving competitors, combat swimmers, and triathletes. We describe a case of SIPE in a combat swimmer in warm tropical waters. A 21-year old diver trainee developed dyspnea, chest discomfort and hemoptysis after performing a 2-km sea swim in water temperatures of around 30°C. Over a two-hour period, his oxygen saturations deteriorated. Chest X-ray showed pulmonary edema. He was admitted to the general ward for observation and was given supportive treatment. His symptoms resolved over two days. Repeat CXR was normal. He was reviewed and certified fit to continue with diver training. Much of the earlier literature on SIPE describes the development of symptoms after exposure to temperate waters as one main risk factor. This case highlights the risk of development of SIPE in warm tropical waters. With a low reported incidence of SIPE in warm waters, this condition is likely to be underdiagnosed. There is therefore a need to increase local awareness of SIPE in the medical community. A deliberate effort to collate data on SIPE in our local community will help us to better understand the pathophysiology of SIPE in the context of a tropical climate. Development of SIPE in tropical waters suggests that other risk factors may be predominant. There should be a high index of suspicion when any strenuous in-water activity is conducted so that timely treatment may be instituted.

Climate change and land use drivers of fecal bacteria in tropical Hawaiian rivers

Science.gov (United States)

Ayron M. Strauch; Richard A. Mackenzie; Gregory L. Bruland; Ralph Tingley; Christian P. Giardina

2014-01-01

Potential shifts in rainfall driven by climate change are anticipated to affect watershed processes (e.g., soil moisture, runoff, stream flow), yet few model systems exist in the tropics to test hypotheses about how these processes may respond to these shifts. We used a sequence of nine watersheds on Hawaii Island spanning 3000 mm (7500–4500 mm) of mean annual rainfall...

Revisiting drought impact on tropical forest photosynthesis: a novel multi-scale integrated approach reveals new insights

Science.gov (United States)

Detto, M.; Wu, J.; Xu, X.; Serbin, S.; Rogers, A.

2017-12-01

A fundamental unanswered question for global change ecology is to determine the vulnerability of tropical forests to climate change, particularly with increasing intensity and frequency of drought events. This question, despite its apparent simplicity, remains difficult for earth system models to answer, and is controversial in remote sensing literature. Here, we leverage unique multi-scale remote sensing measurements (from leaf to crown) in conjunction with four-continuous-year (2013-2017) eddy covariance measurements of ecosystem carbon fluxes in a tropical forest in Panama to revisit this question. We hypothesize that drought impacts tropical forest photosynthesis through variation in abiotic drivers (solar radiation, diffuse light fraction, and vapor pressure deficit) that interact with physiological traits that govern photosynthesis, and biotic variation in ecosystem photosynthetic capacity associated with changes in the traits themselves. Our study site, located in a seasonal tropical forest on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, experienced a significant drought in 2015. Local eddy covariance derived photosynthesis shows an abrupt increase during the drought year. Our specific goal here is to assess the relative impact of abiotic and biotic drivers of such photosynthesis response to interannual drought. To this goal, we derived abiotic drivers from eddy tower-based meteorological measurements. We will derive the biotic drivers using a recently developed leaf demography-ontogeny model, where ecosystem photosynthetic capacity can be described as the product of field measured, age-dependent leaf photosynthetic capacity and local tower-camera derived ecosystem-scale inter-annual variability in leaf age demography of the same time period (2013-2017). Lastly, we will use a process-based model to assess the separate and joint effects of abiotic and biotic drivers on eddy covariance derive photosynthetic interannual variability. Collectively, this novel multi

Role of atmosphere-ocean interactions in supermodeling the tropical Pacific climate

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Shen, Mao-Lin; Keenlyside, Noel; Bhatt, Bhuwan C.; Duane, Gregory S.

2017-12-01

The supermodel strategy interactively combines several models to outperform the individual models comprising it. A key advantage of the approach is that nonlinear improvements can be achieved, in contrast to the linear weighted combination of individual unconnected models. This property is found in a climate supermodel constructed by coupling two versions of an atmospheric model differing only in their convection scheme to a single ocean model. The ocean model receives a weighted combination of the momentum and heat fluxes. Optimal weights can produce a supermodel with a basic state similar to observations: a single Intertropical Convergence zone (ITCZ), with a western Pacific warm pool and an equatorial cold tongue. This is in stark contrast to the erroneous double ITCZ pattern simulated by both of the two stand-alone coupled models. By varying weights, we develop a conceptual scheme to explain how combining the momentum fluxes of the two different atmospheric models affects equatorial upwelling and surface wind feedback so as to give a realistic basic state in the tropical Pacific. In particular, we propose a mechanism based on the competing influences of equatorial zonal wind and off-equatorial wind stress curl in driving equatorial upwelling in the coupled models. Our results show how nonlinear ocean-atmosphere interaction is essential in combining these two effects to build different sea surface temperature structures, some of which are realistic. They also provide some insight into observed and modelled tropical Pacific climate.

Climatic impacts of fresh water hosing under Last Glacial Maximum conditions: a multi-model study

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M. Kageyama

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Fresh water hosing simulations, in which a fresh water flux is imposed in the North Atlantic to force fluctuations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, have been routinely performed, first to study the climatic signature of different states of this circulation, then, under present or future conditions, to investigate the potential impact of a partial melting of the Greenland ice sheet. The most compelling examples of climatic changes potentially related to AMOC abrupt variations, however, are found in high resolution palaeo-records from around the globe for the last glacial period. To study those more specifically, more and more fresh water hosing experiments have been performed under glacial conditions in the recent years. Here we compare an ensemble constituted by 11 such simulations run with 6 different climate models. All simulations follow a slightly different design, but are sufficiently close in their design to be compared. They all study the impact of a fresh water hosing imposed in the extra-tropical North Atlantic. Common features in the model responses to hosing are the cooling over the North Atlantic, extending along the sub-tropical gyre in the tropical North Atlantic, the southward shift of the Atlantic ITCZ and the weakening of the African and Indian monsoons. On the other hand, the expression of the bipolar see-saw, i.e., warming in the Southern Hemisphere, differs from model to model, with some restricting it to the South Atlantic and specific regions of the southern ocean while others simulate a widespread southern ocean warming. The relationships between the features common to most models, i.e., climate changes over the north and tropical Atlantic, African and Asian monsoon regions, are further quantified. These suggest a tight correlation between the temperature and precipitation changes over the extra-tropical North Atlantic, but different pathways for the teleconnections between the AMOC/North Atlantic region

Climate change mitigation: potential benefits and pitfalls of enhanced rock weathering in tropical agriculture.

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Edwards, David P; Lim, Felix; James, Rachael H; Pearce, Christopher R; Scholes, Julie; Freckleton, Robert P; Beerling, David J

2017-04-01

Restricting future global temperature increase to 2°C or less requires the adoption of negative emissions technologies for carbon capture and storage. We review the potential for deployment of enhanced weathering (EW), via the application of crushed reactive silicate rocks (such as basalt), on over 680 million hectares of tropical agricultural and tree plantations to offset fossil fuel CO 2 emissions. Warm tropical climates and productive crops will substantially enhance weathering rates, with potential co-benefits including decreased soil acidification and increased phosphorus supply promoting higher crop yields sparing forest for conservation, and reduced cultural eutrophication. Potential pitfalls include the impacts of mining operations on deforestation, producing the energy to crush and transport silicates and the erosion of silicates into rivers and coral reefs that increases inorganic turbidity, sedimentation and pH, with unknown impacts for biodiversity. We identify nine priority research areas for untapping the potential of EW in the tropics, including effectiveness of tropical agriculture at EW for major crops in relation to particle sizes and soil types, impacts on human health, and effects on farmland, adjacent forest and stream-water biodiversity. © 2017 The Author(s).

End-product quality of composts produced under tropical and temperate climates using different raw materials: A meta-analysis.

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Faverial, Julie; Boval, Maryline; Sierra, Jorge; Sauvant, Daniel

2016-12-01

A meta-analysis on end-product quality of 442 composts was performed to assess the effects of climate and raw materials on compost quality. The analysis was performed using an ANOVA including a mixed model with nested factors (climate, raw material and publication effect). Tropical composts presented lower carbon, nitrogen, potassium and soluble-carbon contents, and higher electrical conductivity. The results suggest that compost quality in the tropics was affected by weather conditions during composting (e.g. high temperature and rainfall), which induced high losses of carbon and nutrients. For most properties, industrial, sewage sludge and manure-based composts displayed the highest quality under both climates, while the contrary was found for household and municipal solid waste-based composts. The publication effect represented >50% of total variance, which was mainly due to the heterogeneity of the composting procedures. The meta-analysis was found to be a helpful tool to analyse the imbalanced worldwide database on compost quality. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The potential negative impacts of global climate change on tropical montane cloud forests

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Foster, Pru

2001-10-01

Nearly every aspect of the cloud forest is affected by regular cloud immersion, from the hydrological cycle to the species of plants and animals within the forest. Since the altitude band of cloud formation on tropical mountains is limited, the tropical montane cloud forest occurs in fragmented strips and has been likened to island archipelagoes. This isolation and uniqueness promotes explosive speciation, exceptionally high endemism, and a great sensitivity to climate. Global climate change threatens all ecosystems through temperature and rainfall changes, with a typical estimate for altitude shifts in the climatic optimum for mountain ecotones of hundreds of meters by the time of CO 2 doubling. This alone suggests complete replacement of many of the narrow altitude range cloud forests by lower altitude ecosystems, as well as the expulsion of peak residing cloud forests into extinction. However, the cloud forest will also be affected by other climate changes, in particular changes in cloud formation. A number of global climate models suggest a reduction in low level cloudiness with the coming climate changes, and one site in particular, Monteverde, Costa Rica, appears to already be experiencing a reduction in cloud immersion. The coming climate changes appear very likely to upset the current dynamic equilibrium of the cloud forest. Results will include biodiversity loss, altitude shifts in species' ranges and subsequent community reshuffling, and possibly forest death. Difficulties for cloud forest species to survive in climate-induced migrations include no remaining location with a suitable climate, no pristine location to colonize, migration rates or establishment rates that cannot keep up with climate change rates and new species interactions. We review previous cloud forest species redistributions in the paleo-record in light of the coming changes. The characteristic epiphytes of the cloud forest play an important role in the light, hydrological and nutrient

Microbial Community Dynamics from Permafrost Across the Pleistocene-Holocene Boundary and Response to Abrupt Climate Change

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Hammad, A.; Mahony, M.; Froese, D. G.; Lanoil, B. D.

2014-12-01

Earth is currently undergoing rapid warming similar to that observed about 10,000 years ago at the end of the Pleistocene. We know a considerable amount about the adaptations and extinctions of mammals and plants at the Pleistocene/Holocene (P/H) boundary, but relatively little about changes at the microbial level. Due to permafrost soils' freezing anoxic conditions, they act as microbial diversity archives allowing us to determine how microbial communities adapted to the abrupt warming at the end of P. Since microbial community composition only helps differentiate viable and extant microorganisms in frozen permafrost, microbial activity in thawing permafrost must be investigated to provide a clear understanding of microbial response to climate change. Current increased temperatures will result in warming and potential thaw of permafrost and release of stored organic carbon, freeing it for microbial utilization; turning permafrost into a carbon source. Studying permafrost viable microbial communities' diversity and activity will provide a better understanding of how these microorganisms respond to soil edaphic variability due to climate change across the P/H boundary, providing insight into the changes that the soil community is currently undergoing in this modern era of rapid climate change. Modern soil, H and P permafrost cores were collected from Lucky Lady II site outside Dawson City, Yukon. 16S rRNA high throughput sequencing of permafrost DNA showed the same trends for total and viable community richness and diversity with both decreasing with permafrost depth and only the richness increasing in mid and early P. The modern, H and P soils had 50.9, 33.9, and 27.3% unique viable species and only 14% of the total number of viable species were shared by all soils. Gas flux measurements of thawed permafrost showed metabolic activity in modern and permafrost soils, aerobic CH­­4 consumption in modern, some H and P soils, and anaerobic CH­­4 production in one H

Stable "Waterbelt" climates controlled by tropical ocean heat transport: A nonlinear coupled climate mechanism of relevance to Snowball Earth

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Rose, Brian E. J.

2015-02-01

Ongoing controversy about Neoproterozoic Snowball Earth events motivates a theoretical study of stability and hysteresis properties of very cold climates. A coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice general circulation model (GCM) has four stable equilibria ranging from 0% to 100% ice cover, including a "Waterbelt" state with tropical sea ice. All four states are found at present-day insolation and greenhouse gas levels and with two idealized ocean basin configurations. The Waterbelt is stabilized against albedo feedback by intense but narrow wind-driven ocean overturning cells that deliver roughly 100 W m-2 heating to the ice edges. This requires three-way feedback between winds, ocean circulation, and ice extent in which circulation is shifted equatorward, following the baroclinicity at the ice margins. The thermocline is much shallower and outcrops in the tropics. Sea ice is snow-covered everywhere and has a minuscule seasonal cycle. The Waterbelt state spans a 46 W m-2 range in solar constant, has a significant hysteresis, and permits near-freezing equatorial surface temperatures. Additional context is provided by a slab ocean GCM and a diffusive energy balance model, both with prescribed ocean heat transport (OHT). Unlike the fully coupled model, these support no more than one stable ice margin, the position of which is slaved to regions of rapid poleward decrease in OHT convergence. Wide ranges of different climates (including the stable Waterbelt) are found by varying the magnitude and spatial structure of OHT in both models. Some thermodynamic arguments for the sensitivity of climate, and ice extent to OHT are presented.

Analysis agriculture's impact in a system of lakes on a karst environment with tropical climate.

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Olea Olea, Selene; Escolero Fuentes, Oscar

2015-04-01

This paper has as main object to analyze the impact of agriculture in the water quality of the "Lagos de Montebello" area; which is located in the Southeast of Mexico. This area is prominent by its tropical climate and a karstic environment. The issue arises in a lake system affected by pollution in the later years, which has turned its former clear water into a highly sedimented muddy water in the topographically lower terrains while no polluted on the higher ones; therefore it is intended to determine if the rise in agricultural activity in the lower terrains has induced this phenomenon. The impact of agriculture has been historically studied in temperate climates with karstic environments; nevertheless it has not been very well studied in tropical climates; which are the reason of this proposal to perform a study to analyze the impact of the intensive agriculture running in the area. To develop this project we studied the area regarding to the types of crops that has being established in the zone, being mostly tomato, corn, and bean; and the fertilizers and pesticides applied to them. A groundwater monitoring plan was designed with a variety of phases such as: piezometers building, measurement of groundwater levels, measurement of field parameters, with a two months intervals (Ph, temperature, electric conductivity, total dissolved solids), and water samplings for laboratory analysis (major ions, nutrients, total organic carbon, pesticides) at twice a year, once during rainy season and then on drought. The rates of pollution agents infiltration depends on the type of soil retention and volume of water. The materials found in the soil by the piezometers are clay, silt, sand and variations between them. We determined that the geochemical qualities of the groundwater vary from calcic bicarbonate to calcic sulfated. The results reached with this monitoring provides a preliminary diagnosis on the possible causes and other implications that intensive agriculture in a

Climatic Drivers of Tropical Andean Glacier Recession, c1987 - c2006

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Slayback, D. A.; Tucker, C. J.

2011-12-01

We report on the climatic trends associated with glacier recession in the tropical Andes from the mid-1980s to the mid-2000s. These glaciers comprise 99% of the world's tropical glaciers and occur in Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, and Venezuela. We previously reported on our comprehensive analysis of Landsat imagery of these glaciers, which indicated an overall recession of approximately 30% in glacierized area between c1987 and c2006, or a drop from ~2500 km2 to ~1800 km2 in total glacier area. In the current work, we have examined trends in temperature, cloud cover, and precipitation and compared these trends with those in glacier recession. For temperature and cloud cover, we use the MERRA reanalysis datasets (Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications) produced by the NASA Goddard's GMAO (Global Modeling and Assimilation Office), which are based on satellite observations. For precipitation, we use the GPCP (Glocal Precipitation Climatology Project) datasets, which are based on both ground and satellite observations. We find that over the glacierized zones, the only significant trends are those in temperature, which show increases of up to 0.5 degree C per decade over some glacierized areas. Trends in cloud cover and precipitation are not generally significant. We discuss these trends in relation to glacier recession trends for each of the major glacierized areas of the tropical Andes.

The Relative Impact of Climate Change on the Extinction Risk of Tree Species in the Montane Tropical Andes.

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Tejedor Garavito, Natalia; Newton, Adrian C; Golicher, Duncan; Oldfield, Sara

2015-01-01

There are widespread concerns that anthropogenic climate change will become a major cause of global biodiversity loss. However, the potential impact of climate change on the extinction risk of species remains poorly understood, particularly in comparison to other current threats. The objective of this research was to examine the relative impact of climate change on extinction risk of upper montane tree species in the tropical Andes, an area of high biodiversity value that is particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. The extinction risk of 129 tree species endemic to the region was evaluated according to the IUCN Red List criteria, both with and without the potential impacts of climate change. Evaluations were supported by development of species distribution models, using three methods (generalized additive models, recursive partitioning, and support vector machines), all of which produced similarly high AUC values when averaged across all species evaluated (0.82, 0.86, and 0.88, respectively). Inclusion of climate change increased the risk of extinction of 18-20% of the tree species evaluated, depending on the climate scenario. The relative impact of climate change was further illustrated by calculating the Red List Index, an indicator that shows changes in the overall extinction risk of sets of species over time. A 15% decline in the Red List Index was obtained when climate change was included in this evaluation. While these results suggest that climate change represents a significant threat to tree species in the tropical Andes, they contradict previous suggestions that climate change will become the most important cause of biodiversity loss in coming decades. Conservation strategies should therefore focus on addressing the multiple threatening processes currently affecting biodiversity, rather than focusing primarily on potential climate change impacts.

Tropical Hydroclimate Change during Heinrich Stadial 1: An Integrative Proxy-Model Synthesis

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Lawman, A. E.; Sun, T.; Shanahan, T. M.; Di Nezio, P. N.; Gomez, K.; Piatrunia, N.; Sun, C.; Wu, X.; Kageyama, M.; Merkel, U.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Lohmann, G.; Singarayer, J. S.

2017-12-01

We explore the response of tropical climate to abrupt cooling of the North Atlantic (NA) during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1) combining paleoclimate proxies with model simulations. A total of 146 published paleoclimate records from tropical locations are used to categorize whether HS1 was wetter, drier, or unchanged relative to a deglacial baseline state. Only records with sufficient resolution to resolve HS1 and sufficient length to characterize the deglacial trend are considered. This synthesis reveals large-scale patterns of hydroclimate change relative to glacial conditions, confirming previously reported weaker Indian summer monsoon, a wetter southern Africa, and drying over the Caribbean. Our synthesis also reveals large-scale drying over the Maritime continent as well as wetter conditions in northern Australia and southern tropical South America. Our reinterpretation of the available proxy data reveals far more complexity and uncertainties for equatorial East Africa, a region that appears to straddle a pattern of dryer conditions to the north and wetter conditions to the south. Overall, these patterns of hydroclimate change depart from a southward shift of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), particularly outside the tropical Atlantic. We explore mechanisms driving these changes using a multi-model ensemble of "hosing" simulations performed relative to glacial conditions. The models show robust weakening of the Afro-Asian Monsoon, which we attribute to ventilation of colder mid-latitude air. Not all models simulate the remaining patterns inferred from the proxy data. The best-agreeing models indicate that cooling over the tropical NA and the Caribbean may be essential to communicate the response to the global tropics. This response can induce warming over the tropical South Atlantic via the wind-evaporation-SST feedback, driving wetter conditions in South Africa and tropical South America. Cooling over the Caribbean is communicated to the Pacific over the

Organismal responses to habitat change: herbivore performance, climate and leaf traits in regenerating tropical dry forests.

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Agosta, Salvatore J; Hulshof, Catherine M; Staats, Ethan G

2017-05-01

The ecological effects of large-scale climate change have received much attention, but the effects of the more acute form of climate change that results from local habitat alteration have been less explored. When forest is fragmented, cut, thinned, cleared or otherwise altered in structure, local climates and microclimates change. Such changes can affect herbivores both directly (e.g. through changes in body temperature) and indirectly (e.g. through changes in host plant traits). We advance an eco-physiological framework to understand the effects of changing forests on herbivorous insects. We hypothesize that if tropical forest caterpillars are climate and resource specialists, then they should have reduced performance outside of mature forest conditions. We tested this hypothesis with a field experiment contrasting the performance of Rothschildia lebeau (Saturniidae) caterpillars feeding on the host plant Casearia nitida (Salicaceae) in two different aged and structured tropical dry forests in Area de Conservación Guanacaste, Costa Rica. Compared to more mature closed-canopy forest, in younger secondary forest we found that: (1) ambient conditions were hotter, drier and more variable; (2) caterpillar growth and development were reduced; and (3) leaves were tougher, thicker and drier. Furthermore, caterpillar growth and survival were negatively correlated with these leaf traits, suggesting indirect host-mediated effects of climate on herbivores. Based on the available evidence, and relative to mature forest, we conclude that reduced herbivore performance in young secondary forest could have been driven by changes in climate, leaf traits (which were likely climate induced) or both. However, additional studies will be needed to provide more direct evidence of cause-and-effect and to disentangle the relative influence of these factors on herbivore performance in this system. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Optimizing cloud removal from satellite remotely sensed data for monitoring vegetation dynamics in humid tropical climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hashim, M; Pour, A B; Onn, C H

2014-01-01

Remote sensing technology is an important tool to analyze vegetation dynamics, quantifying vegetation fraction of Earth's agricultural and natural vegetation. In optical remote sensing analysis removing atmospheric interferences, particularly distribution of cloud contaminations, are always a critical task in the tropical climate. This paper suggests a fast and alternative approach to remove cloud and shadow contaminations for Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper + (ETM + ) multi temporal datasets. Band 3 and Band 4 from all the Landsat ETM + dataset are two main spectral bands that are very crucial in this study for cloud removal technique. The Normalise difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the normalised difference soil index (NDSI) are two main derivatives derived from the datasets. Change vector analysis is used in this study to seek the vegetation dynamics. The approach developed in this study for cloud optimizing can be broadly applicable for optical remote sensing satellite data, which are seriously obscured with heavy cloud contamination in the tropical climate

Isotopic composition of ice core air reveals abrupt Antarctic warming during and after Heinrich Event 1a

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Morgan, J. D.; Bereiter, B.; Baggenstos, D.; Kawamura, K.; Shackleton, S. A.; Severinghaus, J. P.

2017-12-01

Antarctic temperature variations during Heinrich events, as recorded by δ18O­ice­, generally show more gradual changes than the abrupt warmings seen in Greenland ice. However, quantitative temperature interpretation of the water isotope temperature proxy is difficult as the relationship between δ18Oice and temperature is not constant through time. Fortunately, ice cores offer a second temperature proxy based on trapped gases. During times of surface warming, thermal fractionation of gases in the column of unconsolidated snow (firn) on top of the ice sheet results in isotopically heavier nitrogen (N2) and argon (Ar) being trapped in the ice core bubbles. During times of surface cooling, isotopically lighter gases are trapped. Measurements of δ15N and δ40Ar can therefore be used, in combination with a model for the height of the column of firn, to quantitatively reconstruct surface temperatures. In the WAIS Divide Ice Core, the two temperature proxies show a brief disagreement during Heinrich Stadial 1. Despite δ18Oice recording relatively constant temperature, the nitrogen and argon isotopes imply an abrupt warming between 16 and 15.8 kyr BP, manifest as an abrupt 1.25oC increase in the firn temperature gradient. To our knowledge, this would be the first evidence that such abrupt climate change has been recorded in an Antarctic climate proxy. If confirmed by more detailed studies, this event may represent warming due to an extreme southward shift of the Earth's thermal equator (and the southern hemisphere westerly wind belt), caused by the 16.1 ka Heinrich Event.

Local Perceptions of Climate Variability and Change in Tropical Forests of Papua, Indonesia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Manuel Boissière

2013-12-01

Full Text Available People everywhere experience changes and events that impact their lives. Knowing how they perceive, react, and adapt to climatic changes and events is helpful in developing strategies to support adaptation to climate change. Mamberamo in Papua, Indonesia, is a sparsely populated watershed of 7.8 million hectares possessing rich tropical forests. Our study compares scientific and traditional ecological knowledge (TEK on climate, and analyzes how local people in Mamberamo perceive and react to climatic variations. We compared meteorological data for the region with local views gathered through focus group discussions and interviews in six villages. We explored the local significance of seasonality, climate variability, and climate change. Mamberamo is subject to strikingly low levels of climatic variation; nonetheless local people highlighted certain problematic climate-related events such as floods and droughts. As our results illustrate, the implications vary markedly among villages. People currently consider climate variation to have little impact on their livelihoods when contrasted with other factors, e.g., logging, mining, infrastructure development, and political decentralization. Nonetheless, increased salinity of water supplies, crop loss due to floods, and reduced hunting success are concerns in specific villages. To gain local engagement, adaptation strategies should initially focus on factors that local people already judge important. Based on our results we demonstrate that TEK, and an assessment of local needs and concerns, provide practical insights for the development and promotion of locally relevant adaptation strategies. These insights offer a foundation for further engagement.

The abrupt onset of the modern South Asian monsoon winds

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Betzler, C.; Eberli, G.P.; Kroon, D.; Wright, J.D.; Swart, P.K.; Nath, B.N.; Alvarez-Zarikian, C.A.; Alonso-Garcia, M.; Bialik, O.M.; Blattler, C.L.; Guo, J.; Haffen, S.; Horozal, S.; Inoue, M.; Jovane, L.; Lanci, L.; Laya, J.C.; Mee, A.L.H.; Ludmann, T.; Nakakuni, M.; Niino, K.; Petruny, L.M.; Pratiwi, S.D.; Reijmer, J.J.G.; Reolid, J.; Slagle, A.L.; Sloss, C.R.; Su, X.; Yao, Z.; Young, J.R.

:29838 | DOI: 10.1038/srep29838 www.nature.com/scientificreports The abrupt onset of the modern South Asian Monsoon winds Christian Betzler1, Gregor P. Eberli2, Dick Kroon3, James D. Wright4, Peter K. Swart2, Bejugam Nagender Nath5, Carlos A. Alvarez....betzler@uni-hamburg.de) Received: 25 April 2016 accepted: 21 June 2016 Published: 20 July 2016 OPEN www.nature.com/scientificreports/ 2Scientific RepoRts | 6:29838 | DOI: 10.1038/srep29838 control, and we propose that the post Miocene Climate Optimum cooling, together...

Quality maintenance Tropical Plants

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gláucia Moraes Dias

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The climatic characteristics of the country favor the cultivation of tropical flowers. The continued expansion of this market is due the beauty, exoticit nature and postharvest longevity of flower. However, little is known about the postharvest of tropical plants. Therefore, this paper provides information on harvest, handling and storage of cut tropical plantspostharvest, storage temperature, conditioning solution.

Fixing Climate: What Past Climate Changes Reveal About the Current Threat-And How to Counter It

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McKinley, Galen A.

2008-10-01

The Earth's climate is changing due to human activities. Recent polls suggest that the U.S. public generally recognizes this fact, and the efforts that led the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and former U.S. vice president Al Gore to win the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize have played no small role in bringing most of the public to realize what scientists have been discussing for years. Yet aside from distorted Hollywood movie accounts such as The Day After Tomorrow, the public knows little about the potential for abrupt change in the climate system. With support from climate science philanthropist Gary Comer, climate scientist Wally Broecker has teamed with science writer Robert Kunzig in this book to bring abrupt climate change into public view. They do this elegantly and convincingly, making the first 12 chapters quite enjoyable.

Attribution of Extreme Rainfall from Landfalling Tropical Cyclones to Climate Change for the Eastern United States

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Liu, M.; Yang, L.; Smith, J. A.; Vecchi, G. A.

2017-12-01

Extreme rainfall and flooding associated with landfalling tropical cyclones (TC) is responsible for vast socioeconomic losses and fatalities. Landfalling tropical cyclones are an important element of extreme rainfall and flood peak distributions in the eastern United States. Record floods for USGS stream gauging stations over the eastern US are closely tied to landfalling hurricanes. A small number of storms account for the largest record floods, most notably Hurricanes Diane (1955) and Agnes (1972). The question we address is: if the synoptic conditions accompanying those hurricanes were to be repeated in the future, how would the thermodynamic and dynamic storm properties and associated extreme rainfall differ in response to climate change? We examine three hurricanes: Diane (1955), Agnes (1972) and Irene (2011), due to the contrasts in structure/evolution properties and their important roles in dictating the upper tail properties of extreme rainfall and flood frequency over eastern US. Extreme rainfall from Diane is more localized as the storm maintains tropical characteristics, while synoptic-scale vertical motion associated with extratropical transition is a central feature for extreme rainfall induced by Agnes. Our analyses are based on ensemble simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, considering combinations of different physics options (i.e., microphysics, boundary layer schemes). The initial and boundary conditions of WRF simulations for the present-day climate are using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20thCR). A sub-selection of GCMs is used, as part of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), to provide future climate projections. For future simulations, changes in model fields (i.e., temperature, humidity, geopotential height) between present-day and future climate are first derived and then added to the same 20thCR initial and boundary data used for the present-day simulations, and the ensemble is

Pneumonia in the tropics.

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Lim, Tow Keang; Siow, Wen Ting

2018-01-01

Pneumonia in the tropics poses a heavy disease burden. The complex interplay of climate change, human migration influences and socio-economic factors lead to changing patterns of respiratory infections in tropical climate but also increasingly in temperate countries. Tropical and poorer countries, especially South East Asia, also bear the brunt of the global tuberculosis (TB) pandemic, accounting for almost one-third of the burden. But, as human migration patterns evolve, we expect to see more TB cases in higher income as well as temperate countries, and rise in infections like scrub typhus from ecotourism activities. Fuelled by the ease of air travel, novel zoonotic infections originating from the tropics have led to global respiratory pandemics. As such, clinicians worldwide should be aware of these new conditions as well as classical tropical bacterial pneumonias such as melioidosis. Rarer entities such as co-infections of leptospirosis and chikungunya or dengue will need careful consideration as well. In this review, we highlight aetiologies of pneumonia seen more commonly in the tropics compared with temperate regions, their disease burden, variable clinical presentations as well as impact on healthcare delivery. © 2017 Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.

Climate Mitigation Versus Agriculture in the Tropics

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McAfee, K.

2011-12-01

Significant new drivers of land-use change in the tropics are market-based strategies for climate-change mitigation and biodiversity conservation. These strategies are based on the putative monetary values of new commodities: genetic resources and ecosystem services, especially carbon sequestration services by forests. Payments for Ecosystem Services projects are expanding in Latin America, Asia, and some parts of Africa, promising a 'triple-win' for nature, the private sector, and the poor. Analysis of Mexico's national PES program and review of a growing body of PES case studies, however, reveal a pattern of conflict between poverty alleviation and other social goals, on the one hand, and the market-efficiency criteria that frame many PES projects, on the other hand. This poses a warning for more ambitious, global schemes based on similar principles, such as Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD). Additionally, transnational trade in carbon offsets, seen as a source of finance for PES and for REDD, puts climate policy on a collision course with agriculture, particularly given the context of closing land frontiers and international 'land-grabbing' claims on land for food-export plantations. Because market-based PES and REDD tend to target small- and medium-scale farmers, they are likely to constrain agriculture for domestic needs in regions where food security is already weak. Land-use governance based on conservation-by-commercialization can be compared to alternative approaches that link greening, food production, and social equity in a more integrated way, by combining scientific and local ecological and agroecological knowledge with strategies for rural revitalization and development.

Warm Rain Processes Over the Tropical Oceans and Implications on Climate Change: Results from TRMM and GOES GCM

Science.gov (United States)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.

2004-01-01

In this talk, we will first show results from TRMM data regarding the characteristics of warm rains over the tropical oceans, and the dependence of rate of warm rain production on sea surface temperature. Results lead to the hypothesis that warm rain production efficiency, i.e., autoconversion, may be increased in a warm climate. We use the GEOS-II GCM to test this hypothesis. Our modeling results show that in a climate with increased rate of autoconversion, the total rain amount is increased, with warm rain contributing to a larger portion of the increase. The abundant rainout of warm precipitation causes a reduction of low and middle cloud amount due to rainout, and reduced high clouds due to less water vapor available for ice-phase convection. However, clod radiation feedback caused by the increased rainfall efficiency, leads to differential vertical heating/cooling producing a more unstable atmosphere, allowing, more intense, but isolated penetrative convection, with contracted anvils to develop. Results also show that increased autoconversion reduces the convective adjustment time scale, resulting in faster recycling of atmospheric water. Most interestingly, the increased low level heating associated with warm rain leads to more energetic Madden and Julian oscillations in the tropics, with well-defined eastward propagation. While reducing the autoconversion leads to an abundant mix of westward and eastward tropical disturbances on daily to weekly time scales. The crucial link of precipitation microphysical processes to climate change including the effects of aerosols will be discussed.

Warm Rain Processes over the Tropical Oceans and Implications on Climate Change: Results from TRMM and GEOS GCM

Science.gov (United States)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.

2004-01-01

In this talk, we will first show results from TRMM data regarding the characteristics of warm rains over the tropical oceans, and the dependence of rate of warm rain production on sea surface temperature. Results lead to the hypothesis that warm rain production efficiency, i.e., autoconversion, may be increased in a warm climate. We use the GEOS-II GCM to test this hypothesis. Our modeling results show that in a climate with increased rate of autoconversion, the total rain amount is increased, with warm rain contributing to larger portion of the increase. The abundant rainout of warm precipitation causes a reduction of low and middle cloud amount due to rainout, and reduced high clouds due to less water vapor available for ice-phase convection. However, clod radiation feedback caused by the increased rainfall efficiency, leads to differential vertical heating/cooling producing a more unstable atmosphere, allowing, more intense, but isolated penetrative convection, with contracted anvils to develop. Results also show that increased autoconversion reduces the convective adjustment time scale, resulting in faster recycling of atmospheric water. Most interestingly, the increased low level heating associated with warm rain leads to more energetic Madden and Julian oscillations in the tropics, with well-defined eastward propagation. While reducing the autoconversion leads to an abundant mix of westward and eastward tropical disturbances on daily to weekly time scales. The crucial link of precipitation microphysical processes to climate change including the effects of aerosols will be discussed.

Climate bifurcation during the last deglaciation?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. M. Lenton

2012-07-01

Full Text Available There were two abrupt warming events during the last deglaciation, at the start of the Bølling-Allerød and at the end of the Younger Dryas, but their underlying dynamics are unclear. Some abrupt climate changes may involve gradual forcing past a bifurcation point, in which a prevailing climate state loses its stability and the climate tips into an alternative state, providing an early warning signal in the form of slowing responses to perturbations, which may be accompanied by increasing variability. Alternatively, short-term stochastic variability in the climate system can trigger abrupt climate changes, without early warning. Previous work has found signals consistent with slowing down during the last deglaciation as a whole, and during the Younger Dryas, but with conflicting results in the run-up to the Bølling-Allerød. Based on this, we hypothesise that a bifurcation point was approached at the end of the Younger Dryas, in which the cold climate state, with weak Atlantic overturning circulation, lost its stability, and the climate tipped irreversibly into a warm interglacial state. To test the bifurcation hypothesis, we analysed two different climate proxies in three Greenland ice cores, from the Last Glacial Maximum to the end of the Younger Dryas. Prior to the Bølling warming, there was a robust increase in climate variability but no consistent slowing down signal, suggesting this abrupt change was probably triggered by a stochastic fluctuation. The transition to the warm Bølling-Allerød state was accompanied by a slowing down in climate dynamics and an increase in climate variability. We suggest that the Bølling warming excited an internal mode of variability in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation strength, causing multi-centennial climate fluctuations. However, the return to the Younger Dryas cold state increased climate stability. We find no consistent evidence for slowing down during the Younger Dryas, or in a longer

Coupled ocean-atmosphere surface variability and its climate impacts in the tropical Atlantic region

Science.gov (United States)

Fontaine, B.; Janicot, Serge; Roucou, P.

This study examines time evolution and statistical relationships involving the two leading ocean-atmosphere coupled modes of variability in the tropical Atlantic and some climate anomalies over the tropical 120°W-60°W region using selected historical files (75-y near global SSTs and precipitation over land), more recent observed data (30-y SST and pseudo wind stress in the tropical Atlantic) and reanalyses from the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis System on the period 1968-1997: surface air temperature, sea level pressure, moist static energy content at 850 hPa, precipitable water and precipitation. The first coupled mode detected through singular value decomposition of the SST and pseudo wind-stress data over the tropical Atlantic (30°N-20°S) expresses a modulation in the thermal transequatorial gradient of SST anomalies conducted by one month leading wind-stress anomalies mainly in the tropical north Atlantic during northern winter and fall. It features a slight dipole structure in the meridional plane. Its time variability is dominated by a quasi-decadal signal well observed in the last 20-30 ys and, when projected over longer-term SST data, in the 1920s and 1930s but with shorter periods. The second coupled mode is more confined to the south-equatorial tropical Atlantic in the northern summer and explains considerably less wind-stress/SST cross-covariance. Its time series features an interannual variability dominated by shorter frequencies with increased variance in the 1960s and 1970s before 1977. Correlations between these modes and the ENSO-like Nino3 index lead to decreasing amplitude of thermal anomalies in the tropical Atlantic during warm episodes in the Pacific. This could explain the nonstationarity of meridional anomaly gradients on seasonal and interannual time scales. Overall the relationships between the oceanic component of the coupled modes and the climate anomaly patterns denote thermodynamical

Understanding the tropical warm temperature bias simulated by climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Brient, Florent; Schneider, Tapio

2017-04-01

The state-of-the-art coupled general circulation models have difficulties in representing the observed spatial pattern of surface tempertaure. A majority of them suffers a warm bias in the tropical subsiding regions located over the eastern parts of oceans. These regions are usually covered by low-level clouds scattered from stratus along the coasts to more vertically developed shallow cumulus farther from them. Models usually fail to represent accurately this transition. Here we investigate physical drivers of this warm bias in CMIP5 models through a near-surface energy budget perspective. We show that overestimated solar insolation due to a lack of stratocumulus mostly explains the warm bias. This bias also arises partly from inter-model differences in surface fluxes that could be traced to differences in near-surface relative humidity and air-sea temperature gradient. We investigate the role of the atmosphere in driving surface biases by comparing historical and atmopsheric (AMIP) experiments. We show that some differences in boundary-layer characteristics, mostly those related to cloud fraction and relative humidity, are already present in AMIP experiments and may be the drivers of coupled biases. This gives insights in how models can be improved for better simulations of the tropical climate.

Abrupt increases in Amazonian tree mortality due to drought–fire interactions

OpenAIRE

Brando, Paulo Monteiro; Balch, Jennifer K.; Nepstad, Daniel C.; Morton, Douglas C.; Putz, Francis E.; Coe, Michael T.; Silvério, Divino; Macedo, Marcia N.; Davidson, Eric A.; Nóbrega, Caroline C.; Alencar, Ane; Soares-Filho, Britaldo S.

2014-01-01

Climate change alone is unlikely to drive severe tropical forest degradation in the next few decades, but an alternative process associated with severe weather and forest fires is already operating in southeastern Amazonia. Recent droughts caused greatly elevated fire-induced tree mortality in a fire experiment and widespread regional forest fires that burned 5–12% of southeastern Amazon forests. These results suggest that feedbacks between fires and extreme climatic conditions could increase...

Reconstructing medieval climate in the tropical North Atlantic with corals from Anegada, British Virgin Islands

Science.gov (United States)

Kilbourne, K. H.; Xu, Y. Y.

2014-12-01

Resolving the patterns of climate variability during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) is key for exploring forced versus unforced variability during the last 1000 years. Tropical Atlantic climate is currently not well resolved during the MCA despite it being an important source of heat and moisture to the climate system today. To fill this data gap, we collected cores from Diploria strigosa corals brought onto the low-lying island of Anegada, British Virgin Islands (18.7˚N, 64.3˚S) during an overwash event and use paired analysis of Sr/Ca and δ18O in the skeletal aragonite to explore climate in the tropical Atlantic at the end of the MCA. The three sub-fossil corals used in this analysis overlap temporally and together span the years 1256-1372 C.E. An assessment of three modern corals from the study site indicates that the most robust features of climate reconstructions using Sr/Ca and δ18O in this species are the seasonal cycle and inter-annual variability. The modern seasonal temperature range is 2.8 degrees Celsius and the similarity between the modern and sub-fossil coral Sr/Ca indicates a similar range during the MCA. Today seasonal salinity changes locally are driven in large part by the migration of a regional salinity front. The modern corals capture the related large seasonal seawater δ18O change, but the sub-fossil corals indicate stable seawater δ18O throughout the year, supporting the idea that this site remained on one side of the salinity front continuously throughout the year. Inter-annual variability in the region is influenced by the cross-equatorial SST gradient, the North Atlantic Oscillation and ENSO. Gridded instrumental SST from the area surrounding Anegada and coral geochemical records from nearby Puerto Rico demonstrate concentrations of variance in specific frequency bands associated with these phenomena. The sub-fossil coral shows no concentration of variance in the modern ENSO frequency band, consistent with reduced ENSO

Understanding and simulating the link between African easterly waves and Atlantic tropical cyclones using a regional climate model: the role of domain size and lateral boundary conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Caron, Louis-Philippe [MISU, Stockholm University, Stockholm (Sweden); Universite du Quebec a Montreal, CRCMD Network, Montreal, QC (Canada); Jones, Colin G. [Swedish Meterological and Hydrological Institute, Rossby Center, Norrkoeping (Sweden)

2012-07-15

Using a suite of lateral boundary conditions, we investigate the impact of domain size and boundary conditions on the Atlantic tropical cyclone and african easterly Wave activity simulated by a regional climate model. Irrespective of boundary conditions, simulations closest to observed climatology are obtained using a domain covering both the entire tropical Atlantic and northern African region. There is a clear degradation when the high-resolution model domain is diminished to cover only part of the African continent or only the tropical Atlantic. This is found to be the result of biases in the boundary data, which for the smaller domains, have a large impact on TC activity. In this series of simulations, the large-scale Atlantic atmospheric environment appears to be the primary control on simulated TC activity. Weaker wave activity is usually accompanied by a shift in cyclogenesis location, from the MDR to the subtropics. All ERA40-driven integrations manage to capture the observed interannual variability and to reproduce most of the upward trend in tropical cyclone activity observed during that period. When driven by low-resolution global climate model (GCM) integrations, the regional climate model captures interannual variability (albeit with lower correlation coefficients) only if tropical cyclones form in sufficient numbers in the main development region. However, all GCM-driven integrations fail to capture the upward trend in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. In most integrations, variations in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity appear uncorrelated with variations in African easterly wave activity. (orig.)

Impact of Hypoxia on Startle Response (C-start) of Fish in a Tropical Urban Estuary

Science.gov (United States)

Sánchez-García, M.; Zottoli, S. J.; Roberson, L.

2016-02-01

Hypoxic zones have become more prevalent in marine ecosystems as a result of physical changes to the coastal zone, pollution and eutrophication, and are expected to increase in prevalence with climate change. While some studies have examined the behavioral effects of hypoxia on coastal fishes in temperate and sub-tropical zones, none have focused on tropical coastal zones. Behavioral changes may affect fish survival, predator-prey interactions and ultimately ecosystem structure. Through behavioral endpoints we evaluated the effects of non-lethal levels of hypoxia on estuarine fish collected from the tropical Condado Lagoon, San Juan P.R, in a laboratory setting. Two groups of 10 fishes were placed individually in a sound test chamber and oxygen concentrations were modulated from a pre-treatment at 100% oxygen to increasing levels of hypoxia (80, 70, & 60%), followed by a reversal treatment (100%) to test for recovery of pretreatment behavior. An abrupt sound stimulus was used to elicit a startle response, a quantifiable biological endpoint, while recording with a high speed camera. This approach can lend valuable insight into changes in the central nervous system and effects of anthropogenic inputs on tropical ecosystems at the individual- and population-level. We found that hypoxic conditions significantly decrease fish responsiveness; fish startled only half the time at 80% O2 and dropped as much as 61% at 60% O2. Additionally, responsiveness in reversal tests were significantly lower than under pre-treatment conditions. These results indicate that hypoxia may have long-term or possibly permanent effects, even under relatively mild hypoxia conditions common to tropical estuaries. Future work will aim to understand if the startle response can be regained after a hypoxic event.

R/V KAIYO cruises from 1995-2000 collecting CTD, XCTD, and dissolved oxygen data in support of the Tropical Ocean Climate Study in the Tropical Western Pacific (NODC Accession 0048913)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set includes 10 cruises of the R/V Kaiyo of the Japan Marine Science and Technology Center conducted in 1995-2000 as part of the Tropical Ocean Climate...

Influences of tropical-extratropical interaction on the multidecadal AMOC variability in the NCEP climate forecast system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Huang, Bohua; Schneider, Edwin K.; Klinger, Barry [Gorge Mason University, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, Fairfax, VA (United States); Institute of Global Environment and Society, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Xue, Yan [National Centers for Environmental Prediction/NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Wu, Zhaohua [Florida State University, Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Tallahassee, FL (United States)

2012-08-15

We have examined the mechanisms of a multidecadal oscillation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in a 335-year simulation of the Climate Forecast System (CFS), the climate prediction model developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Both the mean and seasonal cycle of the AMOC in the CFS are generally consistent with observation-based estimates with a maximum northward volume transport of 16 Sv (10{sup 6} m{sup 3}/s) near 35 N at 1.2 km. The annual mean AMOC shows an intermittent quasi 30-year oscillation. Its dominant structure includes a deep anomalous overturning cell (referred to as the anomalous AMOC) with amplitude of 0.6 Sv near 35 N and an anomalous subtropical cell (STC) of shallow overturning spanning across the equator. The mechanism for the oscillation includes a positive feedback between the anomalous AMOC and surface wind stress anomalies in mid-latitudes and a negative feedback between the anomalous STC and AMOC. A strong AMOC is associated with warm sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) centered near 45 N, which generates an anticyclonic easterly surface wind anomaly. This anticyclonic wind anomaly enhances the regional downwelling and reinforces the anomalous AMOC. In the mean time, a wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback extends the warm SSTA to the tropics and induces a cyclonic wind stress anomaly there, which drives a tropical upwelling and weakens the STC north of the equator. The STC anomaly, in turn, drives a cold upper ocean heat content anomaly (HCA) in the northern tropical Atlantic and weakens the meridional heat transport from the tropics to the mid-latitude through an anomalous southward western boundary current. The anomalous STC transports cold HCA from the subtropics to the mid-latitudes, weakening the mid-latitude deep overturning. (orig.)

The use of hormonal treatments to improve reproductive performance of anestrous beef cattle in tropical climates.

Science.gov (United States)

Baruselli, P S; Reis, E L; Marques, M O; Nasser, L F; Bó, G A

2004-07-01

Most of the world's bovine herd is found in tropical regions. Bos indicus predominates, due to their adaptation to the climate and management conditions. Anestrous is the main factor that negatively affects reproductive performance of animals bred in these regions of the globe. Several factors affect postpartum anestrous, including suckling and maternal-offspring bond, and pre- and postpartum nutritional status. The short duration of estrus and the tendency to show estrus during the night, greatly affect the efficiency of artificial insemination (AI) programs in B. indicus cattle managed in tropical areas. Several restricted suckling or weaning procedures (temporary or permanent), and hormonal treatments have been used to induce ovulation and cyclicity in postpartum cows. Most hormonal treatments are based on progesterone/progestogen (P4) releasing devices associated with estradiol benzoate (EB), or a combination of GnRH/PGF(2alpha)/GnRH (Ovsynch). Treatments with GnRH/PGF(2alpha)/GnRH has presented inconsistent results, probably due to the variable number of cows in anestrous. Treatments using P4 devices and EB have resulted in apparently more consistent results than Ovsynch programs in B. indicus cattle; however, pregnancy rates are low in herds presenting high anestrous rates and moderate to low body condition. The addition of an eCG treatment at the time of device removal, which increased plasma progesterone concentrations and pregnancy rates in anestrous postpartum suckled B. indicus cows, may be useful to improve reproductive performance of beef cattle in tropical climates.

The emerging threats of climate change on tropical coastal ecosystem services, public health, local economies and livelihood sustainability of small islands: Cumulative impacts and synergies.

Science.gov (United States)

Hernández-Delgado, E A

2015-12-15

Climate change has significantly impacted tropical ecosystems critical for sustaining local economies and community livelihoods at global scales. Coastal ecosystems have largely declined, threatening the principal source of protein, building materials, tourism-based revenue, and the first line of defense against storm swells and sea level rise (SLR) for small tropical islands. Climate change has also impacted public health (i.e., altered distribution and increased prevalence of allergies, water-borne, and vector-borne diseases). Rapid human population growth has exacerbated pressure over coupled social-ecological systems, with concomitant non-sustainable impacts on natural resources, water availability, food security and sovereignty, public health, and quality of life, which should increase vulnerability and erode adaptation and mitigation capacity. This paper examines cumulative and synergistic impacts of climate change in the challenging context of highly vulnerable small tropical islands. Multiple adaptive strategies of coupled social-ecological ecosystems are discussed. Multi-level, multi-sectorial responses are necessary for adaptation to be successful. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Dutch colonial architecture of buildings in Manado’s Old City: A response to the coastal tropical climate

Science.gov (United States)

Kumurur, V. A.; Tampi, D. M.

2018-03-01

The late 19th and early 20th centuries was an era when the phenomenon of global warming began, as did the development of cities in Indonesia. In that era, cities in Indonesia functioned as colonial cities. The city of Manado is one of the coastal cities, written in the Dutch Royal Act of 1814 as the territory of Dutch sovereignty, was amended in 1848, 1872 and 1922. Dutch colonial art and architecture in Indonesia are not only influenced by culture but also the climate. For the purpose of physical comfort in the tropical environments, architects began to use local building materials, since the early 19th century, and the building began to be replaced by a customizing architecture. Descriptive analysis was employed as the method in this study. The result found that the Dutch Colonial Architecture emphasized the physical aspects, the royal style adapted to local conditions, and the local building emphasis on function. The tropical climate of Manado City influences the shape of the building with Dutch colonial architectural style in this area. As climate change is shown by rising temperatures, further observations on the design of colonial architecture will be important.

Australasian monsoon response to Dansgaard-Oeschger event 21 and teleconnections to higher latitudes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Griffiths, M.L.; Drysdale, R.N.; Gagan, M.K.; Hellstrom, J.C.; Couchoud, I.; Ayliffe, L.K.; Vonhof, H.B.; Hantoro, W.S.

2013-01-01

Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) cycles were the most prominent, abrupt climate events of the last glacial period whose impact was most strongly felt in the high latitudes of the North Atlantic region. The climate links between the North Atlantic, the Asian and American tropics, and Antarctica during these

Climate change effects on the geographic distribution of specialist tree species of the Brazilian tropical dry forests.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodrigues, P M S; Silva, J O; Eisenlohr, P V; Schaefer, C E G R

2015-08-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the ecological niche models (ENMs) for three specialist trees (Anadenanthera colubrina, Aspidosperma pyrifolium and Myracrodruon urundeuva) in seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs) in Brazil, considering present and future pessimist scenarios (2080) of climate change. These three species exhibit typical deciduousness and are widely distributed by SDTF in South America, being important in studies of the historical and evolutionary processes experienced by this ecosystem. The modeling of the potential geographic distribution of species was done by the method of maximum entropy (Maxent).We verified a general expansion of suitable areas for occurrence of the three species in future (c.a., 18%), although there was reduction of areas with high environmental suitability in Caatinga region. Precipitation of wettest quarter and temperature seasonality were the predictor variables that most contributed to our models. Climatic changes can provide more severe and longer dry season with increasing temperature and tree mortality in tropics. On this scenario, areas currently occupied by rainforest and savannas could become more suitable for occurrence of the SDTF specialist trees, whereas regions occupied by Caatinga could not support the future level of unsustainable (e.g., aridity). Long-term multidisciplinary studies are necessary to make reliable predictions of the plant's adaptation strategies and responses to climate changes in dry forest at community level. Based on the high deforestation rate, endemism and threat, public policies to minimize the effects of climate change on the biodiversity found within SDTFs must be undertaken rapidly.

The Seasonal cycle of the Tropical Lower Stratospheric Water Vapor in Chemistry-Climate Models in Comparison with Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, X.; Dessler, A. E.

2017-12-01

The seasonal cycle is one of the key features of the tropical lower stratospheric water vapor, so it is important that the climate models reproduce it. In this analysis, we evaluate how well the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model (GEOSCCM) and the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) reproduce the seasonal cycle of tropical lower stratospheric water vapor. We do this by comparing the models to observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim (ERAi). We also evaluate if the chemistry-climate models (CCMs) reproduce the key transport and dehydration processes that regulate the seasonal cycle using a forward, domain filling, diabatic trajectory model. Finally, we explore the changes of the seasonal cycle during the 21st century in the two CCMs. Our results show general agreement in the seasonal cycles from the MLS, the ERAi, and the CCMs. Despite this agreement, there are some clear disagreements between the models and the observations on the details of transport and dehydration in the TTL. Finally, both the CCMs predict a moister seasonal cycle by the end of the 21st century. But they disagree on the changes of the seasonal amplitude, which is predicted to increase in the GEOSCCM and decrease in the WACCM.

The ACER pollen and charcoal database: a global resource to document vegetation and fire response to abrupt climate changes during the last glacial period

Science.gov (United States)

Sánchez Goñi, María Fernanda; Desprat, Stéphanie; Daniau, Anne-Laure; Bassinot, Frank C.; Polanco-Martínez, Josué M.; Harrison, Sandy P.; Allen, Judy R. M.; Anderson, R. Scott; Behling, Hermann; Bonnefille, Raymonde; Burjachs, Francesc; Carrión, José S.; Cheddadi, Rachid; Clark, James S.; Combourieu-Nebout, Nathalie; Mustaphi, Colin. J. Courtney; Debusk, Georg H.; Dupont, Lydie M.; Finch, Jemma M.; Fletcher, William J.; Giardini, Marco; González, Catalina; Gosling, William D.; Grigg, Laurie D.; Grimm, Eric C.; Hayashi, Ryoma; Helmens, Karin; Heusser, Linda E.; Hill, Trevor; Hope, Geoffrey; Huntley, Brian; Igarashi, Yaeko; Irino, Tomohisa; Jacobs, Bonnie; Jiménez-Moreno, Gonzalo; Kawai, Sayuri; Kershaw, A. Peter; Kumon, Fujio; Lawson, Ian T.; Ledru, Marie-Pierre; Lézine, Anne-Marie; Liew, Ping Mei; Magri, Donatella; Marchant, Robert; Margari, Vasiliki; Mayle, Francis E.; Merna McKenzie, G.; Moss, Patrick; Müller, Stefanie; Müller, Ulrich C.; Naughton, Filipa; Newnham, Rewi M.; Oba, Tadamichi; Pérez-Obiol, Ramón; Pini, Roberta; Ravazzi, Cesare; Roucoux, Katy H.; Rucina, Stephen M.; Scott, Louis; Takahara, Hikaru; Tzedakis, Polichronis C.; Urrego, Dunia H.; van Geel, Bas; Valencia, B. Guido; Vandergoes, Marcus J.; Vincens, Annie; Whitlock, Cathy L.; Willard, Debra A.; Yamamoto, Masanobu

2017-09-01

Quaternary records provide an opportunity to examine the nature of the vegetation and fire responses to rapid past climate changes comparable in velocity and magnitude to those expected in the 21st-century. The best documented examples of rapid climate change in the past are the warming events associated with the Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) cycles during the last glacial period, which were sufficiently large to have had a potential feedback through changes in albedo and greenhouse gas emissions on climate. Previous reconstructions of vegetation and fire changes during the D-O cycles used independently constructed age models, making it difficult to compare the changes between different sites and regions. Here, we present the ACER (Abrupt Climate Changes and Environmental Responses) global database, which includes 93 pollen records from the last glacial period (73-15 ka) with a temporal resolution better than 1000 years, 32 of which also provide charcoal records. A harmonized and consistent chronology based on radiometric dating (14C, 234U/230Th, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL), 40Ar/39Ar-dated tephra layers) has been constructed for 86 of these records, although in some cases additional information was derived using common control points based on event stratigraphy. The ACER database compiles metadata including geospatial and dating information, pollen and charcoal counts, and pollen percentages of the characteristic biomes and is archived in Microsoft AccessTM at PANGAEA.870867" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.870867.

The Influence of Climatic Seasonality on the Diversity of Different Tropical Pollinator Groups

Science.gov (United States)

Abrahamczyk, Stefan; Kluge, Jürgen; Gareca, Yuvinka; Reichle, Steffen; Kessler, Michael

2011-01-01

Tropical South America is rich in different groups of pollinators, but the biotic and abiotic factors determining the geographical distribution of their species richness are poorly understood. We analyzed the species richness of three groups of pollinators (bees and wasps, butterflies, hummingbirds) in six tropical forests in the Bolivian lowlands along a gradient of climatic seasonality and precipitation ranging from 410 mm to 6250 mm. At each site, we sampled the three pollinator groups and their food plants twice for 16 days in both the dry and rainy seasons. The richness of the pollinator groups was related to climatic factors by linear regressions. Differences in species numbers between pollinator groups were analyzed by Wilcoxon tests for matched pairs and the proportion in species numbers between pollinator groups by correlation analyses. Species richness of hummingbirds was most closely correlated to the continuous availability of food, that of bees and wasps to the number of food plant species and flowers, and that of butterflies to air temperature. Only the species number of butterflies differed significantly between seasons. We were not able to find shifts in the proportion of species numbers of the different groups of pollinators along the study gradient. Thus, we conclude that the diversity of pollinator guilds is determined by group-specific factors and that the constant proportions in species numbers of the different pollinator groups constitute a general pattern. PMID:22073268

The influence of climatic seasonality on the diversity of different tropical pollinator groups.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stefan Abrahamczyk

Full Text Available Tropical South America is rich in different groups of pollinators, but the biotic and abiotic factors determining the geographical distribution of their species richness are poorly understood. We analyzed the species richness of three groups of pollinators (bees and wasps, butterflies, hummingbirds in six tropical forests in the Bolivian lowlands along a gradient of climatic seasonality and precipitation ranging from 410 mm to 6250 mm. At each site, we sampled the three pollinator groups and their food plants twice for 16 days in both the dry and rainy seasons. The richness of the pollinator groups was related to climatic factors by linear regressions. Differences in species numbers between pollinator groups were analyzed by Wilcoxon tests for matched pairs and the proportion in species numbers between pollinator groups by correlation analyses. Species richness of hummingbirds was most closely correlated to the continuous availability of food, that of bees and wasps to the number of food plant species and flowers, and that of butterflies to air temperature. Only the species number of butterflies differed significantly between seasons. We were not able to find shifts in the proportion of species numbers of the different groups of pollinators along the study gradient. Thus, we conclude that the diversity of pollinator guilds is determined by group-specific factors and that the constant proportions in species numbers of the different pollinator groups constitute a general pattern.

Global Climate Change: Threat Multiplier for AFRICOM?

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Yackle, Terri A

2007-01-01

.... Whatever the catalyst for this abrupt climate change, stability for Africa hinges upon mitigating the effects of global climate change to prevent future conflicts such as Darfur, and the instability...

Human Influence on Tropical Cyclone Intensity

Science.gov (United States)

Sobel, Adam H.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Hall, Timothy M.; Lee, Chia-Ying; Tippett, Michael K.; Wing, Allison A.

2016-01-01

Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity.We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although greenhouse gas-driven warming increases potential intensity, climate model simulations suggest that aerosol cooling has largely canceled that effect over the historical record. Large natural variability complicates analysis of trends, as do poleward shifts in the latitude of maximum intensity. In the absence of strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, future greenhouse gas forcing of potential intensity will increasingly dominate over aerosol forcing, leading to substantially larger increases in tropical cyclone intensities.

Investigation of tropical diurnal convection biases in a climate model using TWP-ICE observations and convection-permitting simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, W.; Xie, S.; Jackson, R. C.; Endo, S.; Vogelmann, A. M.; Collis, S. M.; Golaz, J. C.

2017-12-01

Climate models are known to have difficulty in simulating tropical diurnal convections that exhibit distinct characteristics over land and open ocean. While the causes are rooted in deficiencies in convective parameterization in general, lack of representations of mesoscale dynamics in terms of land-sea breeze, convective organization, and propagation of convection-induced gravity waves also play critical roles. In this study, the problem is investigated at the process-level with the U.S. Department of Energy Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) model in short-term hindcast mode using the Cloud Associated Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) framework. Convective-scale radar retrievals and observation-driven convection-permitting simulations for the Tropical Warm Pool-International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) cases are used to guide the analysis of the underlying processes. The emphasis will be on linking deficiencies in representation of detailed process elements to the model biases in diurnal convective properties and their contrast among inland, coastal and open ocean conditions.

Climate Change or Climate Variability? History, Science and Politics in the Mesoamerican Climate

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Poleo

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Climate variations in Mesoamerica have influenced the development and decay of populations from the earliest human settlements. The present time is no exception; there is no evidence that global warming will impact rainfall in the region, but rather there are important studies showing a response of rainfall to climate variability in the American tropics. Since our tropical region is vulnerable to climate variability, public policies must be congruent to avoid the mistakes of previous generations and achieve, with the help of science, a real progress in the fight against global warming.

A modelling study of the event-based retention performance of green roof under the hot-humid tropical climate in Kuching.

Science.gov (United States)

Chai, C T; Putuhena, F J; Selaman, O S

2017-12-01

The influences of climate on the retention capability of green roof have been widely discussed in existing literature. However, knowledge on how the retention capability of green roof is affected by the tropical climate is limited. This paper highlights the retention performance of the green roof situated in Kuching under hot-humid tropical climatic conditions. Using the green roof water balance modelling approach, this study simulated the hourly runoff generated from a virtual green roof from November 2012 to October 2013 based on past meteorological data. The result showed that the overall retention performance was satisfactory with a mean retention rate of 72.5% from 380 analysed rainfall events but reduced to 12.0% only for the events that potentially trigger the occurrence of flash flood. By performing the Spearman rank's correlation analysis, it was found that the rainfall depth and mean rainfall intensity, individually, had a strong negative correlation with event retention rate, suggesting that the retention rate increases with decreased rainfall depth. The expected direct relationship between retention rate and antecedent dry weather period was found to be event size dependent.

Support for global climate reorganization during the ''Medieval Climate Anomaly''

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Graham, N.E. [Hydrologic Research Center, San Diego, CA (United States); Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA (United States); Ammann, C.M. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Fleitmann, D. [University of Bern, Institute of Geological Sciences, Bern (Switzerland); University of Bern, Oeschger Centre for Climatic Change Research, Bern (Switzerland); Cobb, K.M. [Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States); Luterbacher, J. [Justus-Liebig-University, Giessen (Germany)

2011-09-15

Widely distributed proxy records indicate that the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; {proportional_to}900-1350 AD) was characterized by coherent shifts in large-scale Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation patterns. Although cooler sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific can explain some aspects of medieval circulation changes, they are not sufficient to account for other notable features, including widespread aridity through the Eurasian sub-tropics, stronger winter westerlies across the North Atlantic and Western Europe, and shifts in monsoon rainfall patterns across Africa and South Asia. We present results from a full-physics coupled climate model showing that a slight warming of the tropical Indian and western Pacific Oceans relative to the other tropical ocean basins can induce a broad range of the medieval circulation and climate changes indicated by proxy data, including many of those not explained by a cooler tropical Pacific alone. Important aspects of the results resemble those from previous simulations examining the climatic response to the rapid Indian Ocean warming during the late twentieth century, and to results from climate warming simulations - especially in indicating an expansion of the Northern Hemisphere Hadley circulation. Notably, the pattern of tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) change responsible for producing the proxy-model similarity in our results agrees well with MCA-LIA SST differences obtained in a recent proxy-based climate field reconstruction. Though much remains unclear, our results indicate that the MCA was characterized by an enhanced zonal Indo-Pacific SST gradient with resulting changes in Northern Hemisphere tropical and extra-tropical circulation patterns and hydroclimate regimes, linkages that may explain the coherent regional climate shifts indicated by proxy records from across the planet. The findings provide new perspectives on the nature and possible causes of the MCA

Environmental determinants of tropical forest and savanna distribution: A quantitative model evaluation and its implication

Science.gov (United States)

Zeng, Zhenzhong; Chen, Anping; Piao, Shilong; Rabin, Sam; Shen, Zehao

2014-07-01

The distributions of tropical ecosystems are rapidly being altered by climate change and anthropogenic activities. One possible trend—the loss of tropical forests and replacement by savannas—could result in significant shifts in ecosystem services and biodiversity loss. However, the influence and the relative importance of environmental factors in regulating the distribution of tropical forest and savanna biomes are still poorly understood, which makes it difficult to predict future tropical forest and savanna distributions in the context of climate change. Here we use boosted regression trees to quantitatively evaluate the importance of environmental predictors—mainly climatic, edaphic, and fire factors—for the tropical forest-savanna distribution at a mesoscale across the tropics (between 15°N and 35°S). Our results demonstrate that climate alone can explain most of the distribution of tropical forest and savanna at the scale considered; dry season average precipitation is the single most important determinant across tropical Asia-Australia, Africa, and South America. Given the strong tendency of increased seasonality and decreased dry season precipitation predicted by global climate models, we estimate that about 28% of what is now tropical forest would likely be lost to savanna by the late 21st century under the future scenario considered. This study highlights the importance of climate seasonality and interannual variability in predicting the distribution of tropical forest and savanna, supporting the climate as the primary driver in the savanna biogeography.

Methane hydrates in quaternary climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kennett, J. P.; Hill, T. M.; Behl, R. J.

2005-01-01

The hydrate reservoir in marine sediments is known to contain a large volume of exchangeable carbon stored as solid methane hydrate and associated free gas. This reservoir has been shown to be potentially unstable in response to changing intermediate water temperature and sea level (pressure). Evidence continues to grow for past episodes of major methane release at times of climatic warming. Yet few studies of late Quaternary climate change include methane hydrates as an integral part of the global climate system, in spite of the largest known oscillations at this time in sea level and upper ocean temperature changes for the Cenozoic or earlier, conditions that favor instability of the methane hydrate reservoir. Abrupt increases in atmospheric methane recorded in polar ice cores are widely believed to have resulted, not from ocean-floor methane degassing, but instead from continental wetland activation, a hypothesis thus far unsupported by geological data. Furthermore, as part of this Wetland Methane Hypothesis, the abrupt methane increases have been seen as a response to climatic warming rather than contributing significantly to the change. An alternative view (formulated as the Clathrate Gun Hypothesis) is that the speed, magnitude and timing of abrupt climate change in the recent geologic past are consistent with the process of major degassing of methane hydrates. We summarize aspects of this hypothesis here and needs to test this hypothesis. (Author)

Two decades of climate driving the dynamics of functional and taxonomic diversity of a tropical small mammal community in western Mexico.

Science.gov (United States)

Mason-Romo, Edgard David; Farías, Ariel A; Ceballos, Gerardo

2017-01-01

Understanding the effects of global climate disruption on biodiversity is important to future conservation efforts. While taxonomic diversity is widely studied, functional diversity of plants, and recently animals, is receiving increasing attention. Most studies of mammals are short-term, focus on temperate habitats, and rely on traits described in the literature rather than generating traits from observations. Unlike previous studies, this long-term field study assessed the factors driving the functional and taxonomic diversity of small-mammal assemblages in dry tropical forests using both traits recorded from literature and a demographic database. We assessed the drivers (abundance and biomass, temperature and rainfall) of taxonomic richness and functional diversity for two rain-driven seasons in two adjacent but distinct forests-upland and lowland (arroyo or riparian) forests. Our analysis found that rainfall, both seasonal and atypical, was the primary factor driving functional and taxonomic diversity of small-mammal assemblages. Functional responses differed between the two types of forests, however, with effects being stronger in the harsher conditions of the upland forests than in the less severe conditions prevailing in the arroyo (riparian) forest. The latter also supports a richer, more diverse, and more stable small-mammal assemblage. These findings highlight the importance of climate to tropical biological diversity, as extreme climate events (hurricanes, droughts and floods) and disruption of rainfall patterns were shown to decrease biodiversity. They also support the need to preserve these habitats, as their high taxonomic diversity and functional redundancy makes them resilient against global climate disruption and local extreme events. Tropical dry forests constitute a potential reservoir for biodiversity and the ecosystem services they provide. Unfortunately, these forests are among the most endangered terrestrial ecosystems because of

Two decades of climate driving the dynamics of functional and taxonomic diversity of a tropical small mammal community in western Mexico.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edgard David Mason-Romo

Full Text Available Understanding the effects of global climate disruption on biodiversity is important to future conservation efforts. While taxonomic diversity is widely studied, functional diversity of plants, and recently animals, is receiving increasing attention. Most studies of mammals are short-term, focus on temperate habitats, and rely on traits described in the literature rather than generating traits from observations. Unlike previous studies, this long-term field study assessed the factors driving the functional and taxonomic diversity of small-mammal assemblages in dry tropical forests using both traits recorded from literature and a demographic database. We assessed the drivers (abundance and biomass, temperature and rainfall of taxonomic richness and functional diversity for two rain-driven seasons in two adjacent but distinct forests-upland and lowland (arroyo or riparian forests. Our analysis found that rainfall, both seasonal and atypical, was the primary factor driving functional and taxonomic diversity of small-mammal assemblages. Functional responses differed between the two types of forests, however, with effects being stronger in the harsher conditions of the upland forests than in the less severe conditions prevailing in the arroyo (riparian forest. The latter also supports a richer, more diverse, and more stable small-mammal assemblage. These findings highlight the importance of climate to tropical biological diversity, as extreme climate events (hurricanes, droughts and floods and disruption of rainfall patterns were shown to decrease biodiversity. They also support the need to preserve these habitats, as their high taxonomic diversity and functional redundancy makes them resilient against global climate disruption and local extreme events. Tropical dry forests constitute a potential reservoir for biodiversity and the ecosystem services they provide. Unfortunately, these forests are among the most endangered terrestrial ecosystems because

Effect of climate on the seminal characteristics of boars in a region of humid tropical forest

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Henao Restrepo, Guillermo; Trujillo Aramburo, Luis Emilio; Buritica Henao, Maria Elizabet; Sierra Perez, Carlos Ignacio; Correa Londono, Guillermo; Gonzalez Boto, Oscar Domingo

2004-01-01

In a region of humid tropical forest, ten boars of from 12 to 24 months of age were selected to evaluate the effect of climatic variables measured on the day of semen collection and for each of preceding 45 days. On seminal characteristics, the variability of each characteristic was separated into an intra individual component and an interindividual component, using maximum likelihood estimators (PROC VARCOMP of SAS). In order to relate the seminal characteristics with the climatic variables, morphological abnormalities were grouped according to the affected spermatic region, into head. Midsection and main section abnormalities; the other characteristics were evaluated without any modification. Possible correlations between seminal characteristics and climatic variables were evaluated. In a total of 298 ejaculates collected weekly during a period of 30 weeks, except for total volume and morphological abnormalities. The seminal characteristics presented low or moderate intra and interindividual variation and were similar to those found in other latitudes, with a tendency to present greater seminal volumes and concentrations maximum temperature minimum temperature. Range among temperatures. Relative humidity and precipitation of the day of the semen collection and on each of the preceding 45 days had low effects on the seminal characteristics. It is possible that the boars in warm humid tropical areas develop a high level of adaptation that permits an adequate testicular thermoregulation that favors the spermatogenic function of the seminiferous tubules in a way that does not perceptibly affect production the seminal quality

Phenology of seed and leaves rain in response to periodic climatic variability in a seasonal wet tropical forest

Science.gov (United States)

Matteo, D.; Wright, S. J.; Davies, S. J.; Muller-Landau, H. C.; Wolfe, B.; Detto, M.

2016-12-01

Phenology, by controlling the rhythms of plants, plays a fundamental role in regulating access to resources, ecosystem processes, competition among species, interactions with consumers and feedbacks to the climate. In high biodiverse tropical forests, where phenology of flowering and leafing are complex, an adequate representation of phenology must take into account a given set of climatic, edaphic and biotic factors. Climatic factors are particularly important because plants may use them as cues for timing different phenological phases and be influenced by their intensity. Climatic variability can be periodic, if events occur with regular frequency, or aperiodic. One prominent periodic large-scale pattern that causes unusual weather is ENSO event. In general, Central America tends to be dry and warm during a mature phase of an ENSO event, which usually peaks between October and January with a frequency of 2-3 events per decade. Because in many tropical areas the effect of ENSO is highly prominent, it is plausible that plants have adapted their growth and reproduction mechanisms to synchronize ENSO phases, in a similar way that plants do during the seasonal cycle. We used a long dataset (30+ years) of fruits and leaves rains of tropical trees and lianas to determine ecosystem response and species specific response of these phenological events to local climate variability corresponding to the modes of ENSO. Specifically, we tested the hypothesis that phenological responses to ENSO are similar to response to seasonal cycles, i.e., higher litterfall before a warm-dry phase and higher fruiting after such phase, with strong correlation between seeds and leaves. At sub-community level, we evaluated whether evergreen and deciduous, biotic and abiotic dispersers and free and climbing life forms, have the same response to ENSO in terms of leaves and seeds rain. At species level we tested the hypothesis that species with low photosynthetic capacity leaves are more responsive

Comparing abrupt and gradual smoking cessation: a randomized trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Etter, Jean-François

2011-11-01

To compare abrupt and gradual smoking cessation. Randomized trial and observational study, Internet, 2007-2010. Smokers with no strong preference for abrupt or gradual quitting were randomly assigned to quitting immediately (n=472), or to gradually reducing their cigarette consumption over 2 weeks and then quit (n=502). Smokers who strongly preferred to quit abruptly were instructed to do so immediately (n=2456), those who strongly preferred gradual were instructed to reduce their cigarette consumption over 2 weeks, then quit (n=1801). Follow-up was conducted 4 weeks after target quit dates. Those who preferred abrupt quitting were the most motivated to quit and the most confident in their ability to quit. At follow-up, quit rates were 16% in those who preferred abrupt cessation, 7% in those who preferred gradual cessation and 9% in those who had no preference (pmotivation to quit and confidence in ability to quit: those who had low levels of motivation or low levels of confidence were more likely to quit at follow-up if they preferred and used abrupt rather than gradual. In those who had no strong preference for either method, abrupt and gradual produced similar results. Those who preferred and used the abrupt method were more likely to quit than those who preferred and used the gradual method, in particular when they had low motivation and confidence. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Do Quercus ilex woodlands undergo abrupt non-linear functional changes in response to human disturbance along a climatic gradient?

Science.gov (United States)

Bochet, Esther; García-Fayos, Patricio; José Molina, Maria; Moreno de las Heras, Mariano; Espigares, Tíscar; Nicolau, Jose Manuel; Monleon, Vicente

2017-04-01

Theoretical models predict that drylands are particularly prone to suffer critical transitions with abrupt non-linear changes in their structure and functions as a result of the existing complex interactions between climatic fluctuations and human disturbances. However, so far, few studies provide empirical data to validate these models. We aim at determining how holm oak (Quercus ilex) woodlands undergo changes in their functions in response to human disturbance along an aridity gradient (from semi-arid to sub-humid conditions), in eastern Spain. For that purpose, we used (a) remote-sensing estimations of precipitation-use-efficiency (PUE) from enhanced vegetation index (EVI) observations performed in 231x231 m plots of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS); (b) biological and chemical soil parameter determinations (extracellular soil enzyme activity, soil respiration, nutrient cycling processes) from soil sampled in the same plots; (c) vegetation parameter determinations (ratio of functional groups) from vegetation surveys performed in the same plots. We analyzed and compared the shape of the functional change (in terms of PUE and soil and vegetation parameters) in response to human disturbance intensity for our holm oak sites along the aridity gradient. Overall, our results evidenced important differences in the shape of the functional change in response to human disturbance between climatic conditions. Semi-arid areas experienced a more accelerated non-linear decrease with an increasing disturbance intensity than sub-humid ones. The proportion of functional groups (herbaceous vs. woody cover) played a relevant role in the shape of the functional response of the holm oak sites to human disturbance.

Separating the Effects of Tropical Atlantic and Pacific SST-driven Climate Variability on Amazon Carbon Exchange

Science.gov (United States)

Liptak, J.; Keppel-Aleks, G.

2016-12-01

Amazon forests store an estimated 25% percent of global terrestrial carbon per year1, 2, but the responses of Amazon carbon uptake to climate change is highly uncertain. One source of this uncertainty is tropical sea surface temperature variability driven by teleconnections. El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key driver of year-to-year Amazon carbon exchange, with associated temperature and precipitation changes favoring net carbon storage in La Nina years, and net carbon release during El Nino years3. To determine how Amazon climate and terrestrial carbon fluxes react to ENSO alone and in concert with other SST-driven teleconnections such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), we force the atmosphere (CAM5) and land (CLM4) components of the CESM(BGC) with prescribed monthly SSTs over the period 1950—2014 in a Historical control simulation. We then run an experiment (PAC) with time-varying SSTs applied only to the tropical equatorial Pacific Ocean, and repeating SST seasonal cycle climatologies elsewhere. Limiting SST variability to the equatorial Pacific indicates that other processes enhance ENSO-driven Amazon climate anomalies. Compared to the Historical control simulation, warming, drying and terrestrial carbon loss over the Amazon during El Nino periods are lower in the PAC simulation, especially prior to 1990 during the cool phase of the AMO. Cooling, moistening, and net carbon uptake during La Nina periods are also reduced in the PAC simulation, but differences are greater after 1990 during the warm phase of the AMO. By quantifying the relationships among climate drivers and carbon fluxes in the Historical and PAC simulations, we both assess the sensitivity of these relationships to the magnitude of ENSO forcing and quantify how other teleconnections affect ENSO-driven Amazon climate feedbacks. We expect that these results will help us improve hypotheses for how Atlantic and Pacific climate trends will affect future Amazon carbon carbon

Controls on the abruptness of gravel-sand transitions

Science.gov (United States)

Venditti, J. G.; Church, M. A.; Lamb, M. P.; Domarad, N.; Rennie, C. D.

2014-12-01

As gravel-bedded rivers fine downstream, they characteristically exhibit an abrupt transition from gravel- to sand-bed. This is the only abrupt transition in grain-size that occurs in the fluvial system and has attracted considerable attention. A number of competing theories have been proposed to account for the abruptness of the transition, including base-level control, attrition of ~10mm gravel to produce sand, and sediment sorting processes. The prevailing theory for the emergence of abrupt transitions is size selective sorting of bimodal sediment wherein gravel deposits due to downstream declining shear stress, fining the bedload until a sand-bed emerges. We explored this hypothesis by examining grain-size, shear stress, gravel mobility and sand suspension thresholds through the gravel-sand transition (GST) of the Fraser River, British Columbia. The Fraser GST is an arrested gravel wedge with patches of gravel downstream of the wedge forming a diffuse extension. There is an abrupt change in bed slope through the transition that leads to an abrupt change in shear stress. The GST, bed-slope change and backwater caused by the ocean are all coincident spatially, which enhances the sharpness of the GST. Interestingly, the bimodal reach of the river occurs downstream of the GST and exhibits no downstream gradients in shear stress, suspended sediment flux, gravel mobility or sand suspension thresholds. This calls into question the prevailing theory for the emergence of an abrupt GST by size selective sorting. We provide evidence, both empirical and theoretical, that suggests the emergence of an abrupt GST is caused by rapid deposition of sand when fine gravel deposits. We argue that the emergence of gravel-sand transitions is a consequence of gravel-bedded rivers adopting a steeper slope than sand-bedded rivers. The abruptness arises because the bed slope required to convey the gravel load fixes the distal location of a terminal gravel wedge, and once the river has

The ACER pollen and charcoal database: a global resource to document vegetation and fire response to abrupt climate changes during the last glacial period

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. F. Sánchez Goñi

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Quaternary records provide an opportunity to examine the nature of the vegetation and fire responses to rapid past climate changes comparable in velocity and magnitude to those expected in the 21st-century. The best documented examples of rapid climate change in the past are the warming events associated with the Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O cycles during the last glacial period, which were sufficiently large to have had a potential feedback through changes in albedo and greenhouse gas emissions on climate. Previous reconstructions of vegetation and fire changes during the D–O cycles used independently constructed age models, making it difficult to compare the changes between different sites and regions. Here, we present the ACER (Abrupt Climate Changes and Environmental Responses global database, which includes 93 pollen records from the last glacial period (73–15 ka with a temporal resolution better than 1000 years, 32 of which also provide charcoal records. A harmonized and consistent chronology based on radiometric dating (14C, 234U∕230Th, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL, 40Ar∕39Ar-dated tephra layers has been constructed for 86 of these records, although in some cases additional information was derived using common control points based on event stratigraphy. The ACER database compiles metadata including geospatial and dating information, pollen and charcoal counts, and pollen percentages of the characteristic biomes and is archived in Microsoft AccessTM at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.870867.

First stages of zinc runoff in humid tropical climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meraz, E.; Veleva, L.; Acosta, M.

2007-01-01

Frequently used metals in building application are Zinc and hot dip galvanized steel. The zinc has a relatively good atmospheric resistance, due to its oxidation in air and formation of protective layer. However, some of the zinc corrosion products can be dissolved by pluvial precipitations and water condensed on the metal surface. This process is called metal runoff. In order to estimate el zinc runoff in humid tropical climate, since its firs stages, samples of pure zinc and hot dip galvanized steel have been exposed during 2 years in outdoor atmosphere (rural and urban). The data reveal high annual values of zinc runoff (8,20-12,40±0.30 g/m''2 ano), being this process 80% of total mass loss of corroded zinc. The runoff and corrosion processes are more accelerated for zinc, than that of galvanized steel. The principal factors that control the runoff process are discussed. (Author) 48 refs

Indications of anti-HY immunity in recurrent placental abruption

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Henriette Svarre; Mogensen, Marie; Steffensen, Rudi

2007-01-01

PROBLEM: Placental abruption is a potential life-threatening condition for both the fetus and the mother, being significantly more common in pregnancies with male fetuses. The pathogenesis of placental abruption remains unknown. However, some recent reports point toward a maternal immune response...... the fetus died. Seven patients (88%) had first-born boys, and 15 abruptions (68%) involved male fetuses. All patients with a first-born boy, except one, had HLA-class II alleles known to restrict CD4+ T-cell responses against male-specific minor histocompatibility (HY)-antigens (HLA-DRB1*15, HLA-DRB3...... abruption is exclusively almost preceded by the birth of a boy and the majority of patients have HLA-class II known to restrict CD4 T-cell reactions against HY-antigens. This indicates that maternal immunological responses against HY-antigens play a role in recurrent placental abruption. Udgivelsesdato...

Potential use of a regional climate model in seasonal tropical cyclone activity predictions in the western North Pacific

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Au-Yeung, Andie Y.M.; Chan, Johnny C.L. [City University of Hong Kong, Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, Kowloon, Hong Kong (China)

2012-08-15

This study investigates the potential use of a regional climate model in forecasting seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity. A modified version of Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) is used to examine the ability of the model to simulate TC genesis and landfalling TC tracks for the active TC season in the western North Pacific. In the model, a TC is identified as a vortex satisfying several conditions, including local maximum relative vorticity at 850 hPa with a value {>=}450 x 10{sup -6} s{sup -1}, and the temperature at 300 hPa being 1 C higher than the average temperature within 15 latitude radius from the TC center. Tracks are traced by following these found vortices. Six-month ensemble (8 members each) simulations are performed for each year from 1982 to 2001 so that the climatology of the model can be compared to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) observed best-track dataset. The 20-year ensemble experiments show that the RegCM3 can be used to simulate vortices with a wind structure and temperature profile similar to those of real TCs. The model also reproduces tracks very similar to those observed with features like genesis in the tropics, recurvature at higher latitudes and landfall/decay. The similarity of the 500-hPa geopotential height patterns between RegCM3 and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40 Year Re-analysis (ERA-40) shows that the model can simulate the subtropical high to a large extent. The simulated climatological monthly spatial distributions as well as the interannual variability of TC occurrence are also similar to the JTWC data. These results imply the possibility of producing seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclones using real-time global climate model predictions as boundary conditions for the RegCM3. (orig.)

Reconstructing Tropical Southwest Pacific Climate Variability and Mean State Changes at Vanuatu during the Medieval Climate Anomaly using Geochemical Proxies from Corals

Science.gov (United States)

Lawman, A. E.; Quinn, T. M.; Partin, J. W.; Taylor, F. W.; Thirumalai, K.; WU, C. C.; Shen, C. C.

2017-12-01

The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA: 950-1250 CE) is identified as a period during the last 2 millennia with Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures similar to the present. However, our understanding of tropical climate variability during the MCA is poorly constrained due to a lack of sub-annually resolved proxy records. We investigate seasonal and interannual variability during the MCA using geochemical records developed from two well preserved Porites lutea fossilized corals from the tropical southwest Pacific (Tasmaloum, Vanuatu; 15.6°S, 166.9°E). Absolute U/Th dates of 1127.1 ± 2.7 CE and 1105.1 ± 3.0 CE indicate that the selected fossil corals lived during the MCA. We use paired coral Sr/Ca and δ18O measurements to reconstruct sea surface temperature (SST) and the δ18O of seawater (a proxy for salinity). To provide context for the fossil coral records and test whether the mean state and climate variability at Vanuatu during the MCA is similar to the modern climate, our analysis also incorporates two modern coral records from Sabine Bank (15.9°S, 166.0°E) and Malo Channel (15.7°S, 167.2°E), Vanuatu for comparison. We quantify the uncertainty in our modern and fossil coral SST estimates via replication with multiple, overlapping coral records. Both the modern and fossil corals reproduce their respective mean SST value over their common period of overlap, which is 25 years in both cases. Based on over 100 years of monthly Sr/Ca data from each time period, we find that SSTs at Vanuatu during the MCA are 1.3 ± 0.7°C cooler relative to the modern. We also find that the median amplitude of the annual cycle is 0.8 ± 0.3°C larger during the MCA relative to the modern. Multiple data analysis techniques, including the standard deviation and the difference between the 95th and 5th percentiles of the annual SST cycle estimates, also show that the MCA has greater annual SST variability relative to the modern. Stable isotope data acquisition is ongoing, and when

Tropical Rainforest Education. ERIC Digest.

Science.gov (United States)

Rillero, Peter

This digest provides four guideposts for tropical rainforest education: (1) structure; (2) location and climate; (3) importance; and (4) conservation of resources. Research is cited and background information provided about the layers of life and the adaptations of life within the tropical rain forest. Aspects of life within and near rain forests…

Application of CRISPR/Cas9 Genome Editing Technology for the Improvement of Crops Cultivated in Tropical Climates: Recent Progress, Prospects, and Challenges

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Effi Haque

2018-05-01

Full Text Available The world population is expected to increase from 7.3 to 9.7 billion by 2050. Pest outbreak and increased abiotic stresses due to climate change pose a high risk to tropical crop production. Although conventional breeding techniques have significantly increased crop production and yield, new approaches are required to further improve crop production in order to meet the global growing demand for food. The Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats (CRISPR/Cas9 (CRISPR-associated protein9 genome editing technology has shown great promise for quickly addressing emerging challenges in agriculture. It can be used to precisely modify genome sequence of any organism including plants to achieve the desired trait. Compared to other genome editing tools such as zinc finger nucleases (ZFNs and transcriptional activator-like effector nucleases (TALENs, CRISPR/Cas9 is faster, cheaper, precise and highly efficient in editing genomes even at the multiplex level. Application of CRISPR/Cas9 technology in editing the plant genome is emerging rapidly. The CRISPR/Cas9 is becoming a user-friendly tool for development of non-transgenic genome edited crop plants to counteract harmful effects from climate change and ensure future food security of increasing population in tropical countries. This review updates current knowledge and potentials of CRISPR/Cas9 for improvement of crops cultivated in tropical climates to gain resiliency against emerging pests and abiotic stresses.

Application of CRISPR/Cas9 Genome Editing Technology for the Improvement of Crops Cultivated in Tropical Climates: Recent Progress, Prospects, and Challenges.

Science.gov (United States)

Haque, Effi; Taniguchi, Hiroaki; Hassan, Md Mahmudul; Bhowmik, Pankaj; Karim, M Rezaul; Śmiech, Magdalena; Zhao, Kaijun; Rahman, Mahfuzur; Islam, Tofazzal

2018-01-01

The world population is expected to increase from 7.3 to 9.7 billion by 2050. Pest outbreak and increased abiotic stresses due to climate change pose a high risk to tropical crop production. Although conventional breeding techniques have significantly increased crop production and yield, new approaches are required to further improve crop production in order to meet the global growing demand for food. The Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats (CRISPR)/Cas9 (CRISPR-associated protein9) genome editing technology has shown great promise for quickly addressing emerging challenges in agriculture. It can be used to precisely modify genome sequence of any organism including plants to achieve the desired trait. Compared to other genome editing tools such as zinc finger nucleases (ZFNs) and transcriptional activator-like effector nucleases (TALENs), CRISPR/Cas9 is faster, cheaper, precise and highly efficient in editing genomes even at the multiplex level. Application of CRISPR/Cas9 technology in editing the plant genome is emerging rapidly. The CRISPR/Cas9 is becoming a user-friendly tool for development of non-transgenic genome edited crop plants to counteract harmful effects from climate change and ensure future food security of increasing population in tropical countries. This review updates current knowledge and potentials of CRISPR/Cas9 for improvement of crops cultivated in tropical climates to gain resiliency against emerging pests and abiotic stresses.

Collective behaviour of climate indices in the North Pacific air—sea system and its potential relationships with decadal climate changes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Xiao-Juan; Zhi Rong; He Wen-Ping; Gong Zhi-Qiang

2012-01-01

A climate network of six climate indices of the North Pacific air—sea system is constructed during the period of 1948–2009. In order to find out the inherent relationship between the intrinsic mechanism of climate index network and the important climate shift, the synchronization behaviour and the coupling behaviour of these indices are investigated. Results indicate that climate network synchronization happened around the beginning of the 1960s, in the middle of the 1970s and at the beginnings of the 1990s and the 2000s separately. These synchronization states were always followed by the decrease of the coupling coefficient. Each synchronization of the network was well associated with the abrupt phase or trend changes of annually accumulated abnormal values of North Pacific sea-surface temperature and 500-hPa height, among which the one that happened in the middle of the 1970s is the most noticeable climate shift. We can also obtain this mysterious shift from the first mode of the empirical orthogonal function of six indices. That is to say, abrupt climate shift in North Pacific air—sea system is not only shown by the phase or trend changes of climate indices, but also might be indicated by the synchronizing and the coupling of climate indices. Furthermore, at the turning point of 1975, there are also abrupt correlation changes in the yearly mode of spatial degree distribution of the sea surface temperature and 500-hPa height in the region of the North Pacific, which further proves the probability of climate index synchronization and coupling shift in air—sea systems. (geophysics, astronomy, and astrophysics)

Collective behaviour of climate indices in the North Pacific air-sea system and its potential relationships with decadal climate changes

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Wang Xiao-Juan; Zhi Rong; He Wen-Ping; Gong Zhi-Qiang

2012-01-01

A climate network of six climate indices of the North Pacific air-sea system is constructed during the period of 1948-2009.In order to find out the inherent relationship between the intrinsic mechanism of climate index network and the important climate shift,the synchronization behaviour and the coupling behaviour of these indices are investigated.Results indicate that climate network synchronization happened around the beginning of the 1960s,in the middle of the 1970s and at the beginnings of the 1990s and the 2000s separately.These synchronization states were always followed by the decrease of the coupling coefficient.Each synchronization of the network was well associated with the abrupt phase or trend changes of annually accumulated abnormal vaiues of North Pacific sea-surface temperature and 500-hPa height,among which the one that happened in the middle of the 1970s is the most noticeable climate shift.We can also obtain this mysterious shift from the first mode of the empirical orthogonal function of six indices.That is to say,abrupt climate shift in North Pacific air-sea system is not only shown by the phase or trend changes of climate indices,but also night be indicated by the synchronizing and the coupling of climate indices.Furthermore,at the turning point of 1975,there are also abrupt correlation changes in the yearly mode of spatial degree distribution of the sea surface temperature and 500-hPa height in the region of the North Pacific,which further proves the probability of climate index synchronization and coupling shift in air-sea systems.

Risk of placental abruption in relation to migraines and headaches

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Ananth Cande V

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Migraine, a common chronic-intermittent disorder of idiopathic origin characterized by severe debilitating headaches and autonomic nervous system dysfunction, and placental abruption, the premature separation of the placenta, share many common pathophysiological characteristics. Moreover, endothelial dysfunction, platelet activation, hypercoagulation, and inflammation are common to both disorders. We assessed risk of placental abruption in relation to maternal history of migraine before and during pregnancy in Peruvian women. Methods Cases were 375 women with pregnancies complicated by placental abruption, and controls were 368 women without an abruption. During in-person interviews conducted following delivery, women were asked if they had physician-diagnosed migraine, and they were asked questions that allowed headaches and migraine to be classified according to criteria established by the International Headache Society. Logistic regression procedures were used to calculate odds ratios (aOR and 95% confidence intervals (CI adjusted for confounders. Results Overall, a lifetime history of any headaches or migraine was associated with an increased odds of placental abruption (aOR = 1.60; 95% CI 1.16-2.20. A lifetime history of migraine was associated with a 2.14-fold increased odds of placental abruption (aOR = 2.14; 95% CI 1.22-3.75. The odds of placental abruption was 2.11 (95% CI 1.00-4.45 for migraineurs without aura; and 1.59 (95% 0.70-3.62 for migraineurs with aura. A lifetime history of tension-type headache was also increased with placental abruption (aOR = 1.61; 95% CI 1.01-2.57. Conclusions This study adds placental abruption to a growing list of pregnancy complications associated with maternal headache/migraine disorders. Nevertheless, prospective cohort studies are needed to more rigorously evaluate the extent to which migraines and/or its treatments are associated with the occurrence of placental abruption.

Key Senators Issue Call for `Meaningful' Climate Legislation

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Showstack, Randy

With the U.S. Senate currently considering national energy legislation, Senators John McCain (R-Arizona) and Joseph Lieberman (D-Connecticut) plan to offer a modified version of their bipartisan, proposed Climate Stewardship Act of 2003 (S. 139) as an amendment. The amendment would establish a market driven system of greenhouse gas tradeable allowances to reduce emission. It would also provide for a program of scientific research on abrupt climate change in order to identify and understand past instances of abrupt change; and would establish a national greenhouse gas data base.

Analyzing cloud base at local and regional scales to understand tropical montane cloud forest vulnerability to climate change

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Ashley E. Van Beusekom; Grizelle Gonzalez; Martha A. Scholl

2017-01-01

The degree to which cloud immersion provides water in addition to rainfall, suppresses transpiration, and sustains tropical montane cloud forests (TMCFs) during rainless periods is not well understood. Climate and land use changes represent a threat to these forests if cloud base altitude rises as a result of regional warming or deforestation. To establish a baseline...

A population-based study of race-specific risk for placental abruption

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Stamilio David M

2008-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Efforts to elucidate risk factors for placental abruption are imperative due to the severity of complications it produces for both mother and fetus, and its contribution to preterm birth. Ethnicity-based differences in risk of placental abruption and preterm birth have been reported. We tested the hypotheses that race, after adjusting for other factors, is associated with the risk of placental abruption at specific gestational ages, and that there is a greater contribution of placental abruption to the increased risk of preterm birth in Black mothers, compared to White mothers. Methods We conducted a population-based cohort study using the Missouri Department of Health's maternally-linked database of all births in Missouri (1989–1997 to assess racial effects on placental abruption and the contribution of placental abruption to preterm birth, at different gestational age categories (n = 664,303. Results Among 108,806 births to Black mothers and 555,497 births to White mothers, 1.02% (95% CI 0.96–1.08 of Black births were complicated by placental abruption, compared to 0.71% (95% CI 0.69–0.73 of White births (aOR 1.32, 95% CI 1.22–1.43. The magnitude of risk of placental abruption for Black mothers, compared to White mothers, increased with younger gestational age categories. The risk of placental abruption resulting in term and extreme preterm births ( Conclusion Black women have an increased risk of placental abruption compared to White women, even when controlling for known coexisting risk factors. This risk increase is greatest at the earliest preterm gestational ages when outcomes are the poorest. The relative contribution of placental abruption to term births was greater in Black women, whereas the relative contribution of placental abruption to preterm birth was greater in White women.

Species turnover in tropical montane forest avifauna links to climatic correlates

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Chi-Feng Tsai

2015-01-01

Full Text Available We examined avifauna richness and composition in Taiwan’s tropical montane forests, and compared to historical records dated 22 years ago. A richness attrition of 44 species caused a discrepancy of 30.2%, and an estimated yearly turnover of 2.2%. More resident species that were narrower or lower in elevation distribution, insectivores/omnivores, small to medium-sized, forest/open-field dwelling, and canopy/ground foragers, vanished; whereas piscivores, carnivores, riparian- and shrub-dwellers, ground and mid-layer foragers, and migrants suffered by higher proportions. Occurrence frequencies of persistent species remained constant but varied among ecological groups, indicating an increased homogeneity for smaller-sized insectivores/omnivores dwelling in the forest canopy, shrub, or understory. While the overall annual temperature slightly increased, a relatively stable mean temperature was replaced by an ascending trend from the mid-1990s until 2002, followed by a cooling down. Mean maximum temperatures increased but minimums decreased gradually over years, resulting in increasing temperature differences up to over 16 °C. This accompanied an increase of extreme typhoons affecting Taiwan or directly striking these montane forests during the last decade. These results, given no direct human disturbances were noted, suggest a link between the species turnover and recent climate change, and convey warning signs of conservation concerns for tropical montane assemblages.

Diatoms as Proxies for Abrupt Events in the Hudson River Estuary

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Skorski, W.; Abbott, D. H.; Recasens, C.; Breger, D. L.

2014-12-01

The Hudson River estuary has been subject to many abrupt events throughout its history including hurricanes, droughts and pluvials. Hurricanes in particular are rare, discrete events that if fingerprinted can be used to develop better age models for Hudson River sediments. Proxies use observed physical characteristics or biological assemblages (e.g. diatom and foraminiferal assemblages) as tools to reconstruct past conditions prior to the modern instrumental record. Using a sediment core taken from the Hudson River (CDO2-29A), in New York City, drought and pluvial layers were selected based on Cs-137 dating while hurricane layers were determined from occurrences of tropical to subtropical foraminifera. Contrary to previous studies (Weaver, 1970, Weiss et al, 1978), more than sixty different diatom species have been identified using a scanning electron microscope (SEM). Cosmopolitan, hurricane and drought assemblages have begun to be identified after observing multiple layers (Table 1). Tropical foraminifera dominated by Globigerinoides ruber pink were also found in a hurricane layer that we infer was deposited during Hurricane Belle in 1976. More diatom abundance analyses and cataloged SEM pictures will provide further insight into these proxies. Table 1 Diatom Genera and Species Environment Clarification Cyclotella caspia Planktonic, marine-brackish Cosmopolitan Karayevia clevei Freshwater Cosmopolitan Melosira sp Planktonic, marine Cosmopolitan Thalassiosira sp Marine, brackish Cosmopolitan Staurosirella leptostauron Benthic, freshwater Cosmopolitan Actinoptychus senarius Planktonic or benthic, freshwater to brackish Hurricane and pluvial layers Amphora aff. sp Benthic, marine or freshwater Hurricane layers only Nitzschia sp Benthic, marine or freshwater Hurricane layers only Gomphonema sp Freshwater Hurricane layers only Surirella sp Marine-brackish Drought layer only Triceratium sp Marine Drought layer only Other Genera and species Environment Clarification

Process-Oriented Diagnostics of Tropical Cyclones in Global Climate Models

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Moon, Y.; Kim, D.; Camargo, S. J.; Wing, A. A.; Sobel, A. H.; Bosilovich, M. G.; Murakami, H.; Reed, K. A.; Vecchi, G. A.; Wehner, M. F.; Zarzycki, C. M.; Zhao, M.

2017-12-01

Simulating tropical cyclone (TC) activity with global climate models (GCMs) remains a challenging problem. While some GCMs are able to simulate TC activity that is in good agreement with the observations, many other models exhibit strong biases. Decreasing horizontal grid spacing of the GCM simulations tends to improve the characteristics of simulated TCs, but this enhancement alone does not necessarily lead to greater skill in simulating TC activity. This study uses process-based diagnostics to identify model characteristics that could explain why some GCM simulations are able to produce more realistic TC activity than others. The diagnostics examine how convection, moisture, clouds and related processes are coupled at individual grid points, which yields useful information into how convective parameterizations interact with resolved model dynamics. These diagnostics share similarities with those originally developed to examine the Madden-Julian Oscillations in climate models. This study will examine TCs in eight different GCM simulations performed at NOAA/GFDL, NCAR and NASA that have different horizontal resolutions and ocean coupling. Preliminary results suggest that stronger TCs are closely associated with greater rainfall - thus greater diabatic heating - in the inner-core regions of the storms, which is consistent with previous theoretical studies. Other storm characteristics that can be used to infer why GCM simulations with comparable horizontal grid spacings produce different TC activity will be examined.

Assessing the sensitivity of the North Atlantic Ocean circulation to freshwater perturbation in various glacial climate states

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Meerbeeck, Cedric J. van; Renssen, Hans [VU University Amsterdam, Section Climate Change and Landscape Dynamics, Department of Earth Sciences, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Roche, Didier M. [VU University Amsterdam, Section Climate Change and Landscape Dynamics, Department of Earth Sciences, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Laboratoire CEA/INSU-CNRS/UVSQ, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement (LSCE/IPSL), Gif sur Yvette (France)

2011-11-15

A striking characteristic of glacial climate in the North Atlantic region is the recurrence of abrupt shifts between cold stadials and mild interstadials. These shifts have been associated with abrupt changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) mode, possibly in response to glacial meltwater perturbations. However, it is poorly understood why they were more clearly expressed during Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3, {proportional_to}60-27 ka BP) than during Termination 1 (T1, {proportional_to}18-10 ka BP) and especially around the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, {proportional_to}23-19 ka BP). One clue may reside in varying climate forcings, making MIS3 and T1 generally milder than LGM. To investigate this idea, we evaluate in a climate model how ice sheet size, atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration and orbital insolation changes between 56 ka BP (=56k), 21k and 12.5k affect the glacial AMOC response to additional freshwater forcing. We have performed three ensemble simulations with the earth system model LOVECLIM using those forcings. We find that the AMOC mode in the mild glacial climate type (56k and 12.5k), with deep convection in the Labrador Sea and the Nordic Seas, is more sensitive to a constant 0.15 Sv freshwater forcing than in the cold type (21k), with deep convection mainly south of Greenland and Iceland. The initial AMOC weakening in response to freshwater forcing is larger in the mild type due to an early shutdown of Labrador Sea deep convection, which is completely absent in the 21k simulation. This causes a larger fraction of the freshwater anomaly to remain at surface in the mild type compared to the cold type. After 200 years, a weak AMOC is established in both climate types, as further freshening is compensated by an anomalous salt advection from the (sub-)tropical North Atlantic. However, the slightly fresher sea surface in the mild type facilitates further weakening of the AMOC, which occurs when a surface buoyancy threshold (-0.6 kg

Climatic controls on the isotopic composition and availability of soil nitrogen in mountainous tropical forests

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Weintraub, S. R.; Cole, R. J.; Schmitt, C. G.; All, J.

2014-12-01

Tropical forests in mountainous regions are often assumed to be nitrogen (N) limited, yet N dynamics across rugged terrain can be complex due to gradients in climate and topography. Elucidating patterns of N availability and loss across such gradients is necessary to predict and manage tropical forest response to environmental changes such as increasing N deposition and rising temperatures. However, such data is currently lacking, particularly in remote locations that are of high conservation value. To address this gap, a research expedition organized by the American Climber Science Program recently made a coast-to-coast journey across a remote region of Costa Rica, travelling over the Cordillera Talamanca and through La Amistad International Park. Numerous biological, chemical and hydrologic measurements were made en-route across montane to premontane wet tropical forests, spanning nearly 2,000 m in elevation and 200 km. Surface soil samples collected at regular intervals along this transect illuminate environmental drivers of N dynamics across the region. The dataset reveals strong links between soil natural abundance N isotopic composition (δ15N) and elevation and temperature parameters, and weaker links to precipitation and topography. This is in general agreement with global scale observations, but divergence from some previously published works is apparent and will be discussed. δ15N mass balance models suggest that N isotope patterns reflect differences in forms of N loss and the relative importance of fractionating and non-fractionating pathways. When combined with data on several other edaphic properties, especially C:N stoichiometry, the results points toward notable variation in soil N availability and N constraints across the transect. This study illustrates large, but predictable, variation in key N cycle traits across the premontane to montane wet tropical forest transition. These findings have management-relevant implications for tropical regions.

Spatiotemporal Variation and Abrupt Change Analysis of Temperature from 1960 to 2012 in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China

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Yanyu Yin

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Based on a monthly dataset of temperature time series (1960–2012 in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China (HHHPC, spatiotemporal variation and abrupt change analysis of temperature were examined by moving average, linear regression, spline interpolation, Mann-Kendall test, and moving t-test. Major conclusions were listed as follows. (1 Annual and seasonal temperature increased with different rates on the process of fluctuating changes during 1960~2012. The upward trend was 0.22°C 10a−1 for annual temperature, while it was very significant in winter (0.34°C 10a−1 and spring (0.31°C 10a−1, moderately significant in autumn (0.21°C 10a−1, and nonsignificant in summer (0.05°C 10a−1. (2 The spatial changes of annual and seasonal temperature were similar. The temperature increased significantly in Beijing and its adjacent regions, while it was nonsignificant in the central and southern regions. (3 The spring, autumn, winter, and annual temperature had warm abrupt change. The abrupt change time for winter temperature was in the late 1970s, while it was in the late 1980s and early 1990s for spring, autumn, and annual temperature. (4 Macroscopic effects of global and regional climate warming and human activities were probably responsible for the temperature changes. The climate warming would influence the hydrological cycle and agricultural crops in the study area.

Teleconnections of the tropical Atlantic to the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. A review of recent findings

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang Chunzai [NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Lab., Miami, FL (United States); Kucharski, Fred; Barimalala, Rondrotiana [The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Earth System Physics, Section Trieste (Italy); Bracco, Annalisa [School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Georgia, Inst. of Tech., Atlanta, GA (United States)

2009-08-15

Recent studies found that tropical Atlantic variability may affect the climate in both the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean basins, possibly modulating the Indian summer monsoon and Pacific ENSO events. A warm tropical Atlantic Ocean forces a Gill-Matsuno-type quadrupole response with a low-level anticyclone located over India that weakens the Indian monsoon circulation, and vice versa for a cold tropical Atlantic Ocean. The tropical Atlantic Ocean can also induce changes in the Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs). especially along the coast of Africa and in the western side of the Indian basin. Additionally, it can influence the tropical Pacific Ocean via an atmospheric teleconnection that is associated with the Atlantic Walker circulation. Although the Pacific El Nino does not contemporaneously correlate with the Atlantic Nino, anomalous warming or cooling of the two equatorial oceans can form an inter-basin SST gradient that induces surface zonal wind anomalies over equatorial South America and other regions in both ocean basins. The zonal wind anomalies act as a bridge linking the two ocean basins, and in turn reinforce the inter-basin SST gradient through the atmospheric Walker circulation and oceanic processes. Thus, a positive feedback seems to exist for climate variability of the tropical Pacific-Atlantic Oceans and atmospheric system, in which the inter-basin SST gradient is coupled to the overlying atmospheric wind. (orig.)

Abrupt decadal-to-centennial hydroclimate changes in the Mediterranean region since the mid-Holocene

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Hu, Hsun-Ming; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Jiang, Xiuyang; Wang, Yongjin; Mii, Horng-Sheng; Michel, Véronique

2016-04-01

A series of severe drought events in the Mediterranean region over the past two decades has posed a threat on both human society and biosystem. Holocene hydrological dynamics can offer valuable clues for understanding future climate and making proper adaption strategy. Here, we present a decadal-resolved stalagmite record documenting various hydroclimatic fluctuations in the north central Mediterranean region since the middle Holocene. The stalagmite δ18O sequence shows dramatic instability, characterized by abrupt shifts between dry and wet conditions Mycenaean Greece, Akkadian Empire, Egyptian Old Kingdom, and Uruk, occurred during the drought events, suggesting an important role of climate impact on human civilization. The unstable hydroclimate evolution is related to transferred North Atlantic Oscillation states. Rate of rapid transfer of precipitation patterns, which can be pin-pointed by our good chronology, improves the prediction to future climate changes in North Atlantic region. We also found that a strong correlation between this stalagmite δ18O and sea surface temperatures especially in Pacific Ocean. This agreement suggests a distant interregional climate teleconnection.

Variability of tropical cyclone rapid intensification in the North Atlantic and its relationship with climate variations

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Wang, Chunzai; Wang, Xidong; Weisberg, Robert H.; Black, Michael L.

2017-12-01

The paper uses observational data from 1950 to 2014 to investigate rapid intensification (RI) variability of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Atlantic and its relationships with large-scale climate variations. RI is defined as a TC intensity increase of at least 15.4 m/s (30 knots) in 24 h. The seasonal RI distribution follows the seasonal TC distribution, with the highest number in September. Although an RI event can occur anywhere over the tropical North Atlantic (TNA), there are three regions of maximum RI occurrence: (1) the western TNA of 12°N-18°N and 60°W-45°W, (2) the Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean Sea, and (3) the open ocean southeast and east of Florida. RI events also show a minimum value in the eastern Caribbean Sea north of South America—a place called a hurricane graveyard due to atmospheric divergence and subsidence. On longer time scales, RI displays both interannual and multidecadal variability, but RI does not show a long-term trend due to global warming. The top three climate indices showing high correlations with RI are the June-November ENSO and Atlantic warm pool indices, and the January-March North Atlantic oscillation index. It is found that variabilities of vertical wind shear and TC heat potential are important for TC RI in the hurricane main development region, whereas relative humidity at 500 hPa is the main factor responsible for TC RI in the eastern TNA. However, the large-scale oceanic and atmospheric variables analyzed in this study do not show an important role in TC RI in the Gulf of Mexico and the open ocean southeast and east of Florida. This suggests that other factors such as small-scale changes of oceanic and atmospheric variables or TC internal processes may be responsible for TC RI in these two regions. Additionally, the analyses indicate that large-scale atmospheric and oceanic variables are not critical to TC genesis and formation; however, once a tropical depression forms, large-scale climate

Tropical deforestation in the context of the post-2012 Climate Change Regime

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Morgan, J.L. [WWF International, Global Climate Change Program, Washington DC (United States); Maretti, C. [WWF Brazil, Brasilia (Brazil); Volpi, G. [WWF Latin American Climate Change Program, Brasilia (Brazil)

2005-07-01

There is overwhelming evidence and consensus that climate change is real and happening now. In fact, the impacts of climate change are occurring faster than what many scientists first predicted. Whether assessing impacts to coral reefs, the arctic, sub-Saharan Africa or the tropical rainforests, change is happening and time is short to avoid the most devastating impacts. In order to prevent dangerous climate change, governments, WWF and other NGOs have stated that global average temperature must stay well below a 2 degrees C rise in comparison to pre-industrial temperature. In order to ensure that this dangerous threshold is not crossed, global greenhouse gas emissions will have to be rapidly and deeply reduced over the next one to two decades. The sources of emissions are clear. An estimated 75 to 80% of global emissions stem from industrial sources, specifically, the burning of fossil fuels. The remaining 20 to 25% can be sourced to deforestation emissions, predominantly in the tropics. Both, the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation, must be urgently and effectively addressed in order to save the world's biodiversity and people from catastrophic climate change. At this time, a new opportunity exists to address the issue of deforestation within the climate change regime. The Kyoto Protocol entered into force in February 2005, thus setting the stage for the first Meeting of the Protocol Parties in late 2005 in Montreal, Canada. The Protocol requires that already in 2005, Parties begin assessing and negotiating changes to the Protocol, as noted in Articles 3.9 and 9.2. Due to the urgency of emissions reductions, it is clear that each country will have to commit to more action than in the past, whether it be an Annex I developed country Party or a non-Annex I developing country Party. The Climate Action Network (CAN), a network of over three hundred NGOs worldwide, has put forth a concrete proposal on how such commitments could (a) evolve over time and (b

Multidecadal climate variability in Brazil's Nordeste during the last 3000 years based on speleothem isotope records

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Novello, Valdir F.; Cruz, Francisco W.; Karmann, Ivo; Burns, Stephen J.; Stríkis, Nicolás M.; Vuille, Mathias; Cheng, Hai; Lawrence Edwards, R.; Santos, Roberto V.; Frigo, Everton; Barreto, Eline A. S.

2012-12-01

We present the first high resolution, approximately ∼4 years sample spacing, precipitation record from northeastern Brazil (hereafter referred to as ‘Nordeste’) covering the last ∼3000 yrs from 230Th-dated stalagmites oxygen isotope records. Our record shows abrupt fluctuations in rainfall tied to variations in the intensity of the South American summer monsoon (SASM), including the periods corresponding to the Little Ice Age (LIA), the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and an event around 2800 yr B.P. Unlike other monsoon records in southern tropical South America, dry conditions prevailed during the LIA in the Nordeste. Our record suggests that the region is currently undergoing drought conditions that are unprecedented over the past 3 millennia, rivaled only by the LIA period. Using spectral, wavelet and cross-wavelet analyses we show that changes in SASM activity in the region are mainly associated with variations of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and to a lesser degree caused by fluctuations in tropical Pacific SST. Our record also shows a distinct periodicity around 210 years, which has been linked to solar variability.

Subtropical Climate Variability since the Last Glacial Maximum from Speleothem Precipitation Reconstructions in Florida

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Polk, J.; van Beynen, P.; DeLong, K. L.; Asmerom, Y.; Polyak, V. J.

2017-12-01

Teleconnections between the tropical-subtropical regions of the Americas since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), particularly the Mid- to Late-Holocene, and high-resolution proxy records refining climate variability over this period continue to receive increasing attention. Here, we present a high-resolution, precisely dated speleothem record spanning multiple periods of time since the LGM ( 30 ka) for the Florida peninsula. The data indicate that the amount effect plays a significant role in determining the isotopic signal of the speleothem calcite. Collectively, the records indicate distinct differences in climate in the region between the LGM, Mid-Holocene, and Late Holocene, including a progressive shift in ocean composition and precipitation isotopic values through the period, suggesting Florida's sensitivity to regional and global climatic shifts. Comparisons between speleothem δ18O values and Gulf of Mexico marine records reveal a strong connection between the Gulf region and the terrestrial subtropical climate in the Late Holocene, while the North Atlantic's influence is clear in the earlier portions of the record. Warmer sea surface temperatures correspond to enhanced evaporation, leading to more intense atmospheric convection in Florida, and thereby modulating the isotopic composition of rainfall above the cave. These regional signals in climate extend from the subtropics to the tropics, with a clear covariance between the speleothem signal and other proxy records from around the region, as well as global agreement during the LGM period with other records. These latter connections appear to be driven by changes in the mean position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and time series analysis of the δ18O values reveals significant multidecadal periodicities in the record, which are evidenced by agreement with the AMV and other multidecadal influences (NAO and PDO) likely having varying influence throughout the period of record. The climate variability

Urgent need for warming experiments in tropical forests

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Calaveri, Molly A.; Reed, Sasha C.; Smith, W. Kolby; Wood, Tana E.

2015-01-01

Although tropical forests account for only a fraction of the planet's terrestrial surface, they exchange more carbon dioxide with the atmosphere than any other biome on Earth, and thus play a disproportionate role in the global climate. In the next 20 years, the tropics will experience unprecedented warming, yet there is exceedingly high uncertainty about their potential responses to this imminent climatic change. Here, we prioritize research approaches given both funding and logistical constraints in order to resolve major uncertainties about how tropical forests function and also to improve predictive capacity of earth system models. We investigate overall model uncertainty of tropical latitudes and explore the scientific benefits and inevitable trade-offs inherent in large-scale manipulative field experiments. With a Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 analysis, we found that model variability in projected net ecosystem production was nearly 3 times greater in the tropics than for any other latitude. Through a review of the most current literature, we concluded that manipulative warming experiments are vital to accurately predict future tropical forest carbon balance, and we further recommend the establishment of a network of comparable studies spanning gradients of precipitation, edaphic qualities, plant types, and/or land use change. We provide arguments for long-term, single-factor warming experiments that incorporate warming of the most biogeochemically active ecosystem components (i.e. leaves, roots, soil microbes). Hypothesis testing of underlying mechanisms should be a priority, along with improving model parameterization and constraints. No single tropical forest is representative of all tropical forests; therefore logistical feasibility should be the most important consideration for locating large-scale manipulative experiments. Above all, we advocate for multi-faceted research programs, and we offer arguments for what we consider the most

Changes of cloudiness over tropical land during the past few decades and its link to global climate change

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Arias, P.; Fu, R.; Li, W.

2007-12-01

Tropical forests play a key role in determining the global carbon-climate feedback in the 21st century. Changes in rainforest growth and mortality rates, especially in the deep and least perturbed forest areas, have been consistently observed across global tropics in recent years. Understanding the underlying causes of these changes, especially their links to the global climate change, is especially important in determining the future of the tropical rainforests in the 21st century. Previous studies have mostly focus on the potential influences from elevated atmospheric CO2 and increasing surface temperature. Because the rainforests in wet tropical region is often light limited, we explore whether cloudiness have changed, if so, whether it is consistent with that expected from changes in forest growth rate. We will report our observational analysis examining the trends in annual average shortwave (SW) downwelling radiation, total cloud cover, and cumulus cover over the tropical land regions and to link them with trends in convective available potencial energy (CAPE). ISCCP data and radiosonde records available from the Department of Atmospheric Sciences of the University of Wyoming (http://www.weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html) are used to study the trends. The period for the trend analysis is 1984-2004 for the ISCCP data and 1980-2006 for the radiosondes. The results for the Amazon rainforest region suggest a decreasing trend in total cloud and convective cloud covers, which results in an increase in downwelling SW radiation at the surface. These changes of total and convective clouds are consistent with a trend of decreasing CAPE and an elevated Level of Free Convection (LFC) height, as obtained from the radiosondes. All the above mentioned trends are statistically significant based on the Mann-Kendall test with 95% of confidence. These results consistently suggest the downward surface solar radiation has been increasing since 1984, result from a decrease

Ecosystem resilience to abrupt late Quaternary change in continental southern Siberia

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Harding, Poppy; Mackay, Anson; Bezrukova, Elena; Shchetnikov, Alexander

2017-04-01

Quaternary climate variability is dominated by long term orbital forcing along with abrupt sub-Milankovitch events on the scales of millennia to centuries, driven by internal feedback mechanisms, volcanic forcing and fluctuating solar activity. Although these are well documented in the North Atlantic region, their expression is poorly understood in Siberia, particularly in relation to abrupt climatic events. Siberia has the world's highest level of continentality offering an opportunity to study changes remote from oceanic influences and improving understanding of interactions between the Siberian High and other atmospheric systems including the Aleutian Low, Arctic oscillation and Icelandic Low1 and ENSO2. Understanding of palaeoenvironmental change in Siberia is essential due to the region's high sensitivity to climatic change, with warming rates considerably higher than the global average over the past 50 years3, triggering significant environmental changes, including permafrost degradation, shifts in the forest-steppe biome, increases in forest fires and warming of seasonally ice-covered lakes. Additionally, the region provides essential palaeoenvironmental context for early hominins, for example at globally important sites such as Denisova cave4, and megafauna extinctions5. This presentation outlines ongoing work at Lake Baunt, SE Siberia including: key quaternary climate forcings, the site and its regional context, the key methods and preliminary results. These include a dated record back to ˜30ka BP (based on multiple 14C dates and Bayesian age modelling), multiproxy indicators of palaeoproductivity (e.g. biogenic silica and diatom analyses) and lake mixing regimes (inferred from diatom analyses). Together these highlight several key Quaternary fluctuations potentially correlated to events recorded in Greenland Ice Cores (GS2, GS2.1, GI1, GS1), and these are considered against key Quaternary records including those from nearby Lake Baikal and Hulu Cave in

Sahara and Sahel vulnerability to climate changes, lessons from the past

Science.gov (United States)

Lezine, Anne-Marie; Hély, Christelle; Grenier, Christophe; Braconnot, Pascale

2010-05-01

Since the Sahelian drought in the 1970s, climate variability in north tropical Africa has been the subject of intensive research focusing on the functioning of the Atlantic monsoon system as well as on past variations in rainfall from historical and natural archives. An "abrupt" climate change has been recorded off the Mauritanian coast at the end of the African Humid Period (AHP) 5500 years ago illustrating the onset of the modern climate regime [deMenocal et al., 2000]. At lake Yoa in NE Chad, [Kroepelin et al., 2008] report a "gradual" environmental change. Was this change abrupt or gradual, and amplified or not through vegetation change and feedbacks to the atmosphere is still the subject of debate. Here, we compile paleohydrological and palynological data between 10 and 28°N in the Sahara and Sahel with the purpose of understanding the response of the hydrological system and the vegetation cover to rainfall fluctuations from the onset of the AHP. Our data set is extracted from published studies. It is composed of 1651 dated samples from about 420 localities in the present day Sahara and Sahel. The occurrence of high and intermediate lake levels, fluvial terraces and wetlands as well as of dune edification are analysed with a 1000 yr period from 16 000 yrs BP to present. Clear trends are observed in the evolution of paleohydrological indicators versus time and latitude showing the progression of the centre of the distribution of humidity from south to north during the humid period and to the south after the AHP. The humidity maximum is observed with some temporal delay as compared to the June solar radiation maximum at 30°N. The reasons are investigated along the line of pure climate based processes and/or hydrological impacts. Further, the overall coherence among these signals is examined. Using climate simulations for different key periods in the Holocene, we investigate the relative impact of the insolation forcing, of the remnant ice sheet in the early

Potential regulation on the climatic effect of Tibetan Plateau heating by tropical air-sea coupling in regional models

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Ziqian; Duan, Anmin; Yang, Song

2018-05-01

Based on the conventional weather research and forecasting (WRF) model and the air-sea coupled mode WRF-OMLM, we investigate the potential regulation on the climatic effect of Tibetan Plateau (TP) heating by the air-sea coupling over the tropical Indian Ocean and western Pacific. Results indicate that the TP heating significantly enhances the southwesterly monsoon circulation over the northern Indian Ocean and the South Asia subcontinent. The intensified southwesterly wind cools the sea surface mainly through the wind-evaporation-SST (sea surface temperature) feedback. Cold SST anomaly then weakens monsoon convective activity, especially that over the Bay of Bengal, and less water vapor is thus transported into the TP along its southern slope from the tropical oceans. As a result, summer precipitation decreases over the TP, which further weakens the TP local heat source. Finally, the changed TP heating continues to influence the summer monsoon precipitation and atmospheric circulation. To a certain extent, the air-sea coupling over the adjacent oceans may weaken the effect of TP heating on the mean climate in summer. It is also implied that considerations of air-sea interaction are necessary in future simulation studies of the TP heating effect.

The effect of climate and soil conditions on tree species turnover in a Tropical Montane Cloud Forest in Costa Rica.

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Häger, Achim

2010-12-01

On a global level, Tropical Montane Cloud Forests constitute important centers of vascular plant diversity. Tree species turnover along environmental gradients plays an important role in larger scale diversity patterns in tropical mountains. This study aims to estimate the magnitude of beta diversity across the Tilardn mountain range in North-Western Costa Rica, and to elucidate the impact of climate and soil conditions on tree species turnover at a local scale. Seven climate stations measuring rainfall, horizontal precipitation (clouds and wind-driven rain) and temperatures were installed along a 2.5km transect ranging from 1200 m.a.s.l. on the Atlantic to 1200 m.a.s.l. on the Pacific slope. The ridge top climate station was located at 1500 m.a.s.l. Climate data were recorded from March through December 2003. Additionally, seven 0.05 ha plots were established. On all plots soil moisture was monitored for one year, furthermore soil type and soil chemistry were assessed. Woody plants with a diameter at breast height (dbh) > or = 5 cm were identified to species. Species' distributions were explored by feeding pairwise Serensen measures between plots into a Principal Component Analysis. Relationships between floristic similarity and environmental variables were analyzed using Mantel tests. Pronounced gradients in horizontal precipitation, temperatures and soil conditions were found across the transect. In total, 483 woody plants were identified, belonging to 132 species. Environmental gradients were paralleled by tree species turnover; the plots could be divided in three distinctive floristic units which reflected different topographic positions on the transect (lower slopes, mid slopes and ridge). Most notably there was a complete species turnover between the ridge and the lower Pacific slope. Floristic similarity was negatively correlated with differences in elevation, horizontal precipitation, temperatures and soil conditions between plots. It is suggested that

Physiological and production response of dairy goats bred in a tropical climate

Science.gov (United States)

de Souza, Priscila Teixeira; Salles, Maria Gorete Flores; da Costa, Antônio Nélson Lima; Carneiro, Hilton Alexandre Vidal; de Souza, Leonardo Peres; Rondina, Davide; de Araújo, Airton Alencar

2014-09-01

The aim of this work was to determine the adaptability of Saanen and ½Saanen × ½Anglo-Nubian (½S½AN) goats bred in tropical climates. The study included 30 goats, 15 Saanen and 15 ½S½AN. The data was collected during the rainy and dry seasons. During the whole experimental period, the environment variables were recorded, as well as rectal temperature (RT), superficial temperature (ST), respiratory rate (RR) and heart rate (HR) and milk production (MP). The adaptability coefficient (AC) was calculated for both genotypes. The averages were evaluated by ANOVA at 5 % probability. There was a genotype and period of year effect, as well as the interaction genotype × period of year. Pearson's simple correlation analysis was then carried out between milk production and physiological and environment variables. There was a statistical difference ( p goats, regardless of the season. MP was greater in the dry season ( p goats. Under the conditions of the present study, it is concluded that the goats were influenced by climatic factors, where the rainy period was more likely to cause thermal stress in the animals.

Climate Prediction Center - Outlooks

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Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News Web resources and services. HOME > Outreach > Publications > Climate Diagnostics Bulletin Climate Diagnostics Bulletin - Tropics Climate Diagnostics Bulletin - Forecast Climate Diagnostics

Macroecology of parental care in arthropods: higher mortality risk leads to higher benefits of offspring protection in tropical climates.

Science.gov (United States)

Santos, Eduardo S A; Bueno, Pedro P; Gilbert, James D J; Machado, Glauco

2017-08-01

The intensity of biotic interactions varies around the world, in such a way that mortality risk imposed by natural enemies is usually higher in the tropics. A major role of offspring attendance is protection against natural enemies, so the benefits of this behaviour should be higher in tropical regions. We tested this macroecological prediction with a meta-regression of field experiments in which the mortality of guarded and unguarded broods was compared in arthropods. Mortality of unguarded broods was higher, and parental care was more beneficial, in warmer, less seasonal environments. Moreover, in these same environments, additional lines of defence further reduced offspring mortality, implying that offspring attendance alone is not enough to deter natural enemies in tropical regions. These results help to explain the high frequency of parental care among tropical species and how biotic interactions influence the occurrence of parental care over large geographic scales. Finally, our findings reveal that additional lines of defences - an oftentimes neglected component of parental care - have an important effect on the covariation between the benefits of parental care and the climate-mediated mortality risk imposed by natural enemies. © 2016 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Large scale atmospheric tropical circulation changes and consequences during global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gastineau, G.

2008-01-01

The changes of the tropical large scale circulation during climate change can have large impacts on human activities. In a first part, the meridional atmospheric tropical circulation was studied in the different coupled models. During climate change, we find, on the one hand, that the Hadley meridional circulation and the subtropical jet are significantly shifted poleward, and on the other hand, that the intensity of the tropical circulation weakens. The slow down of the atmospheric circulation results from the dry static stability changes affecting the tropical troposphere. Secondly, idealized simulations are used to explain the tropical circulation changes. Ensemble simulation using the model LMDZ4 are set up to study the results from the coupled model IPSLCM4. The weakening of the large scale tropical circulation and the poleward shift of the Hadley cells are explained by both the uniform change and the meridional gradient change of the sea surface temperature. Then, we used the atmospheric model LMDZ4 in an aqua-planet configuration. The Hadley circulation changes are explained in a simple framework by the required poleward energy transport. In a last part, we focus on the water vapor distribution and feedback in the climate models. The Hadley circulation changes were shown to have a significant impact on the water vapour feedback during climate change. (author)

Water vapor stable isotope observations from tropical Australia

KAUST Repository

Parkes, Stephen

2015-04-01

The response of the tropical hydrological cycle to anthropogenically induced changes in radiative forcing is one of the largest discrepancies between climate models. Paleoclimate archives of the stable isotopic composition of precipitation in the tropics indicate a relationship with precipitation amount that could be exploited to study past hydroclimate and improve our knowledge of how this region responds to changes in climate forcing. Recently modelling studies of convective parameterizations fitted with water isotopes and remote sensing of water vapor isotopes in the tropics have illustrated uncertainty in the assumed relationship with rainfall amount. Therefore there is a need to collect water isotope data in the tropics that can be used to evaluate these models and help identify the relationships between the isotopic composition of meteoric waters and rainfall intensity. However, data in this region is almost non-existent. Here we present in-situ water vapor isotopic measurements and the HDO retrievals from the co-located Total Column Carbon Observing Network (TCCON) site at Darwin in Tropical Australia. The Darwin site is interestingly placed within the tropical western pacific region and is impacted upon by a clear monsoonal climate, and key climate cycles including ENSO and Madden Julian Oscillations. The analysis of the data illustrated relationships between water vapor isotopes and humidity which demonstrated the role of precipitation processes in the wet season and air mass mixing during the dry season. Further the wet season observations show complex relationships between humidity and isotopes. A simple Rayleigh distillation model was not obeyed, instead the importance of rainfall re-evaporation in generating the highly depleted signatures was demonstrated. These data potentially provide a useful tool for evaluating model parameterizations in monsoonal regions as they demonstrate relationships with precipitation processes that cannot be observed with

Impacts of microphysics, radiation and environmental winds in mid-latitude and tropical squall-line systems, and their climatic implications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chin, Hung-Neng.

1994-08-01

Cloud-radiation feedback has been identified as the most important factor limiting general circulation models (GCMS) to further progress in climate change research (Cess et al., 1989). It is also regarded as a major uncertainty in estimating the impact of greenhouse gases on climate simulations. As a result, many GCMs showed high sensitivity to the treatment of clouds and cloud radiative properties. Therefore, a better understanding of cloud-radiation feedback on the large-scale environment is absolutely essential to improve the representation of cloud processes in GCMS. To this end, a cloud model with enhanced model physics is used to study the impact of cloud-radiation interactions on mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Case studies representing a variety of convective systems are important to generalize the overall effects of anvil clouds on the large-scale environment. Our primary interesting is limited to the MCSs in an environment with substantial wind shear, such as squall-line systems, because they have longer lifetime and wider coverage to impact the earth radiation budget and climate. The objective of this study is to investigate the impacts of microphysics, radiation and environmental winds on mid-latitude continental and tropical oceanic squall-line systems. Comparisons between these two systems are presented. Recent studies indicated that the vertical shear of the environmental wind plays an important role in the formation of the anvil cloud through the tilting of MCSS. However, this process has not been represented in GCMS. A detailed investigation on the formation of anvil clouds and their relationship to cumulus portions of MCSs would help develop a better cloud parameterization for use in GCMS. Two important issues are addressed through these comparisons. First, what factors cause the differences between mid-latitude and tropical anvil clouds? Second, do these differences have climatic implications to improve our climate forecasting ability?

Tropical wetlands, climate, and land-use change: adaptation and mitigation opportunities

Science.gov (United States)

Randy Kolka; D. Murdiyarso; J. B. Kauffman; Richard Birdsey

2016-01-01

Tropical wetland ecosystems, especially mangroves and peatlands, are carbon (C) rich ecosystems. Globally, tropical mangroves store about 20 PgC, however, deforestation has contributed 10 % of the total global emissions from tropical deforestation, even though mangroves account for only about 0.7 % of the world’s tropical forest area (Donato et al. 2011). Meanwhile,...

Buoyancy-Driven Ventilation Generated by the Double-Skin Façade of a High-Rise Building in Tropical Climate: Case Study Bandung, Indonesia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aziiz Akhlish Diinal

2017-01-01

Full Text Available High-rise buildings in tropical region is identical to the use of mechanical Air Conditioning in massive scale. Nevertheless, there is an encouragement to high-rise buildings to reduce its energy consumptions, since they consume quite large amount of energy. This challenge can be overcome with various of strategies, one of them, by means of reducing the cooling load of mechanical Air Conditioning in high-rise building. Prospects come from the modern tall building design strategies, for example the use of double-skin façade to give addition of building skin which could provide indoor temperature protection from outside. Double-skin façade system has continued to increase in buildings in a tropical region such as in Indonesia. However, there is another potential of double skin façade, which is the possibility to increase the buoyancy effect in the air gap between the skin and building envelope. The possibility needs to be studied in order to give a proper way in designing double-skin façade of a high-rise building, especially on Bandung-Indonesia tropical climate. This paper explores the potential of double-skin façade in driving the air inside the façade to generate natural ventilation for a high-rise building in Bandung climate condition. Two parameters are used in exploring the buoyancy force, the width of double-skin façade and the temperature of the skin façade. In general, double-skin façade of a high-rise building in tropical climate can generate buoyancy driven ventilation for the building, it relates strongly to the distance between of the double-skin façade and the building envelope.

The effects of season and meteorology on human mortality in tropical climates: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Burkart, Katrin; Khan, Md Mobarak Hossain; Schneider, Alexandra; Breitner, Susanne; Langner, Marcel; Krämer, Alexander; Endlicher, Wilfried

2014-07-01

Research in the field of atmospheric science and epidemiology has long recognized the health effects of seasonal and meteorological conditions. However, little scientific knowledge exists to date about the impacts of atmospheric parameters on human mortality in tropical regions. Working within the scope of this systematic review, this investigation conducted a literature search using different databases; original research articles were chosen according to pre-defined inclusion and exclusion criteria. Both seasonal and meteorological effects were considered. The findings suggest that high amounts of rainfall and increasing temperatures cause a seasonal excess in infectious disease mortality and are therefore relevant in regions and populations in which such diseases are prevalent. On the contrary, moderately low and very high temperatures exercise an adverse effect on cardio-respiratory mortality and shape the mortality pattern in areas and sub-groups in which these diseases are dominant. Atmospheric effects were subject to population-specific factors such as age and socio-economic status and differed between urban and rural areas. The consequences of climate change as well as environmental, epidemiological and social change (e.g., emerging non-communicable diseases, ageing of the population, urbanization) suggest a growing relevance of heat-related excess mortality in tropical regions. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Water vapor stable isotope observations from tropical Australia

KAUST Repository

Parkes, Stephen; Deutscher, Nicholas; Griffith, David; McCabe, Matthew

2015-01-01

retrievals from the co-located Total Column Carbon Observing Network (TCCON) site at Darwin in Tropical Australia. The Darwin site is interestingly placed within the tropical western pacific region and is impacted upon by a clear monsoonal climate, and key

Intrapritoneal Hemorrhage after Placental Abruption

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nahid Sakhavar

2012-06-01

Full Text Available A placental abruption or abruptio placentae (where in the placental lining has separated from the uterus of the mother is one of the complications caused by trauma during pregnancy. It lets the blood flow to infiltrate in the uterine lining and to develop Couvelaire uterus (also known as uteroplacental apoplexy and uterine atony (a condition in which a woman's uterine muscles lose the ability to contract after childbirth; however, it rarely develops considerable hemoperitoneum which needs hysterectomy. In this report, a unique case of placental abruption caused by trauma in a 28-year-old Afghan woman is introduced in which severity and duration of trauma because of delay in reaching health equipped center led to developing massive hemoperitoneum (infiltration of great amount of blood into the abdominal cavity and its complications.

Innovative dual-step management of semi-aerobic landfill in a tropical climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Lavagnolo, Maria Cristina; Grossule, Valentina; Raga, Roberto

2018-04-01

Despite concerted efforts to innovate the solid waste management (SWM) system, land disposal continues to represent the most widely used technology in the treatment of urban solid waste worldwide. On the other hand, landfilling is an unavoidable step in closing the material cycle, since final residues, although minimized, need to be safely disposed of and confined. In recent years, the implementation of more sustainable landfilling aims to achieve the Final Storage Quality conditions as fast as possible. In particular, semi-aerobic landfill appears to represent an effective solution for use in the poorest economies due to lower management costs and shorter aftercare resulting from aerobic stabilisation of the waste. Nevertheless, the implementation of a semi-aerobic landfill in a tropical climate may affect the correct functioning of the plant: a lack of moisture during the dry season and heavy rainfalls during the wet season could negatively affect performance of both the degradation process, and of leachate and biogas management. This paper illustrates the results obtained through the experimentation of a potential dual-step management of semi-aerobic landfilling in a tropical climate in which composting process was reproduced during the dry season and subsequently flushing (high rainfall rate) during the wet period. Eight bioreactors specifically designed: four operated under anaerobic conditions and four under semi-aerobic conditions; half of the reactors were filled with high organic content waste, half with residual waste obtained following enhanced source segregation. The synergic effect of the subsequent phases (composting and flushing) in the semi-aerobic landfill was evaluated on the basis of both types of waste. Biogas production, leachate composition and waste stabilization were analysed during the trial and at the end of each step, and compared in view of the performance of anaerobic reactors. The results obtained underlined the effectiveness of the

Decadal- to Orbital-Scale Links Between Climate, Productivity and Denitrification on the Peru Margin

Science.gov (United States)

Higginson, M. J.; Altabet, M. A.; Herbert, T. D.

2002-12-01

Denitrification is the predominant global loss term for combined nitrogen and can exert a major control on its oceanic inventory, global productivity and atmospheric CO2. Our prior work demonstrates that proxy records for changing denitrification, oxygenation and productivity in the recent geological past in the Arabian Sea exhibit unprecedented similarity with abrupt climate fluctuations recorded in high-latitude ice-cores. Since the Peru Margin and Arabian Sea together constitute almost two-thirds of global marine water-column denitrification, changes in concert in these two regions could potentially have effected rapid global climate changes through an oceanic mechanism. The Peru Margin is intimately coupled to the Equatorial Pacific, source of El Ni&ño-La Niña SST, productivity and precipitation anomalies. Here, biogeochemical cycles are especially sensitive to abrupt climatic changes on decadal time-scales by virtue of this ENSO coupling. The purpose of our research is to investigate whether longer changes in tropical Pacific oceanography represent a 'scaling up' of anomalous ENSO conditions, modulated by both internal (e.g. nutrient inventory or WPWP heat budget) and external (e.g. orbital) forcing throughout the last glacial/inter-glacial cycle. Here we present first results of a detailed investigation of recently-recovered sediments from ODP Site 1228 on the Peru margin upper continental slope, in an attempt to capture some of the essential aspects of ENSO-like variability. Despite the existing availability of high quality sediment cores from this margin, little detailed paleoclimatic information currently exists because of poor sedimentary carbonate preservation (exacerbated post-recovery) which has limited generation of essential chronostratigraphic controls. Instead, we rely on the development and novel application of compound-specific AMS dating verified and supplemented by intermittent foraminiferal and bulk-carbon AMS dates, a magnetic paleo

An investigation of tropical Atlantic bias in a high-resolution coupled regional climate model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Patricola, Christina M.; Saravanan, R.; Hsieh, Jen-Shan [Texas A and M University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, College Station, TX (United States); Li, Mingkui; Xu, Zhao [Texas A and M University, Department of Oceanography, College Station, TX (United States); Ocean University of China, Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography of Ministry of Education, Qingdao (China); Chang, Ping [Texas A and M University, Department of Oceanography, College Station, TX (United States); Ocean University of China, Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography of Ministry of Education, Qingdao (China); Second Institute of Oceanography, State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Hangzhou, Zhejiang (China)

2012-11-15

Coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) commonly fail to simulate the eastern equatorial Atlantic boreal summer cold tongue and produce a westerly equatorial trade wind bias. This tropical Atlantic bias problem is investigated with a high-resolution (27-km atmosphere represented by the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, 9-km ocean represented by the Regional Ocean Modeling System) coupled regional climate model. Uncoupled atmospheric simulations test climate sensitivity to cumulus, land-surface, planetary boundary layer, microphysics, and radiation parameterizations and reveal that the radiation scheme has a pronounced impact in the tropical Atlantic. The CAM radiation simulates a dry precipitation (up to -90%) and cold land-surface temperature (up to -8 K) bias over the Amazon related to an over-representation of low-level clouds and almost basin-wide westerly trade wind bias. The Rapid Radiative Transfer Model and Goddard radiation simulates doubled Amazon and Congo Basin precipitation rates and a weak eastern Atlantic trade wind bias. Season-long high-resolution coupled regional model experiments indicate that the initiation of the warm eastern equatorial Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) bias is more sensitive to the local rather than basin-wide trade wind bias and to a wet Congo Basin instead of dry Amazon - which differs from AOGCM simulations. Comparisons between coupled and uncoupled simulations suggest a regional Bjerknes feedback confined to the eastern equatorial Atlantic amplifies the initial SST, wind, and deepened thermocline bias, while barrier layer feedbacks are relatively unimportant. The SST bias in some CRCM simulations resembles the typical AOGCM bias indicating that increasing resolution is unlikely a simple solution to this problem. (orig.)

The Amazon rainforest, climate change, and drought: How will what is below the surface affect the climate of tropical South America?

Science.gov (United States)

Harper, A.; Denning, A. S.; Baker, I.; Randall, D.; Dazlich, D.

2008-12-01

Several climate models have predicted an increase in long-term droughts in tropical South America due to increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Although the Amazon rainforest is resilient to seasonal drought, multi-year droughts pose a definite problem for the ecosystem's health. Furthermore, drought- stressed vegetation participates in feedbacks with the atmosphere that can exacerbate drought. Namely, reduced evapotranspiration further dries out the atmosphere and affects the regional climate. Trees in the rainforest survive seasonal drought by using deep roots to access adequate stores of soil moisture. We investigate the climatic impacts of deep roots and soil moisture by coupling the Simple Biosphere (SiB3) model to Colorado State University's general circulation model (BUGS5). We compare two versions of SiB3 in the GCM during years with anomalously low rainfall. The first has strong vegetative stress due to soil moisture limitations. The second experiences less stress and has more realistic representations of surface biophysics. In the model, basin-wide reductions in soil moisture stress result in increased evapotranspiration, precipitation, and moisture recycling in the Amazon basin. In the savannah region of southeastern Brazil, the unstressed version of SiB3 produces decreased precipitation and weaker moisture flux, which is more in-line with observations. The improved simulation of precipitation and evaporation also produces a more realistic Bolivian high and Nordeste low. These changes highlight the importance of subsurface biophysics for the Amazonian climate. The presence of deep roots and soil moisture will become even more important if climate change brings more frequent droughts to this region in the future.

Indo-Pacific climate during the decaying phase of the 2015/16 El Niño: role of southeast tropical Indian Ocean warming

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Zesheng; Du, Yan; Wen, Zhiping; Wu, Renguang; Wang, Chunzai

2018-06-01

This study investigates the influence of southeast tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) sea surface temperature (SST) warming on Indo-Pacific climate during the decaying phase of the 2015/16 El Niño by using observations and model experiments. The results show that the SETIO SST warming in spring 2016 enhanced local convection and forced a "C-shape" wind anomaly pattern in the lower troposphere. The "C-shape" wind anomaly pattern over the eastern tropical Indian Ocean consists of anomalous westerly flow south of the equator and anomalous easterly flow north of the equator. The anomalous easterly flow then extended eastward into the western North Pacific (WNP) and facilitates the development or the maintenance of an anomalous anticyclone over the South China Sea (SCS). Correspondingly, the eastern part of the Bay of Bengal, the SCS and the WNP suffered less rainfall. Such precipitation features and the associated "C-shape" wind anomaly pattern shifted northward about five latitudes in summer 2016. Additionally, the SETIO warming can induce local meridional circulation anomalies, which directly affect Indo-Pacific climate. Numerical model experiments further confirm that the SETIO SST warming plays an important role in modulating Indo-Pacific climate.

Indo-Pacific climate during the decaying phase of the 2015/16 El Niño: role of southeast tropical Indian Ocean warming

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Zesheng; Du, Yan; Wen, Zhiping; Wu, Renguang; Wang, Chunzai

2017-09-01

This study investigates the influence of southeast tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) sea surface temperature (SST) warming on Indo-Pacific climate during the decaying phase of the 2015/16 El Niño by using observations and model experiments. The results show that the SETIO SST warming in spring 2016 enhanced local convection and forced a "C-shape" wind anomaly pattern in the lower troposphere. The "C-shape" wind anomaly pattern over the eastern tropical Indian Ocean consists of anomalous westerly flow south of the equator and anomalous easterly flow north of the equator. The anomalous easterly flow then extended eastward into the western North Pacific (WNP) and facilitates the development or the maintenance of an anomalous anticyclone over the South China Sea (SCS). Correspondingly, the eastern part of the Bay of Bengal, the SCS and the WNP suffered less rainfall. Such precipitation features and the associated "C-shape" wind anomaly pattern shifted northward about five latitudes in summer 2016. Additionally, the SETIO warming can induce local meridional circulation anomalies, which directly affect Indo-Pacific climate. Numerical model experiments further confirm that the SETIO SST warming plays an important role in modulating Indo-Pacific climate.

The integration of empirical, remote sensing and modelling approaches enhances insight in the role of biodiversity in climate change mitigation by tropical forests

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sande, van der Masha T.; Poorter, Lourens; Balvanera, Patricia; Kooistra, Lammert; Thonicke, Kirsten; Boit, Alice; Dutrieux, Loic; Equihua, Julian; Gerard, France; Herold, Martin; Kolb, Melanie; Simões, Margareth; Peña-Claros, Marielos

2017-01-01

Tropical forests store and sequester high amounts of carbon and are the most diverse terrestrial ecosystem. A complete understanding of the relationship between biodiversity and carbon storage and sequestration across spatiotemporal scales relevant for climate change mitigation needs three

Anomalous cold in the Pangaean tropics

Science.gov (United States)

Soreghan, G.S.; Soreghan, M.J.; Poulsen, C.J.; Young, R.A.; Eble, C.F.; Sweet, D.E.; Davogustto, O.C.

2008-01-01

The late Paleozoic archives the greatest glaciation of the Phanerozoic. Whereas high-latitude Gondwanan strata preserve widespread evidence for continental ice, the Permo-Carboniferous tropics have long been considered analogous to today's: warm and shielded from the highlatitude cold. Here, we report on glacial and periglacial indicators that record episodes of freezing continental temperatures in western equatorial Pangaea. An exhumed glacial valley and associated deposits record direct evidence for glaciation that extended to low paleoelevations in the ancestral Rocky Mountains. Furthermore, the Permo-Carboniferous archives the only known occurrence of widespread tropical loess in Earth's history; the volume, chemistry, and provenance of this loess(ite) is most consistent with glacial derivation. Together with emerging indicators for cold elsewhere in low-latitude Pangaea, these results suggest that tropical climate was not buffered from the high latitudes and may record glacial-interglacial climate shifts of very large magnitude. Coupled climate-ice sheet model simulations demonstrate that low atmospheric CO2 and solar luminosity alone cannot account for such cold, and that other factors must be considered in attempting to explain this 'best-known' analogue to our present Earth. ?? 2008 The Geological Society of America.

Environments of ocean and primary productivity during the late Quaternary. Millenial-scale large and abrupt climatic changes (global system dynamics in response to Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles); Daiyonki koki no kaiyo kankyo to seibutsu seisan. Suhyaku-susennen scale no kyugekina kiko hendo (Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle ni taisuru chikyu system no oto)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tada, R. [The University of Tokyo, Tokyo (Japan)

1998-04-25

Abrupt and steep climate changes of the millennial scale as represented by the Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle (D-O cycle) and the behavior of the global surface layer system in their wake are outlined. The D-DO cycle is the abrupt and steep climate changes that are recorded in the Greenland continental ice sheet, and is grasped most typically as changes in the oxygen isotopic ratio in the ice. Studies reveal that the D-O cycle is a global episode that accompanied interaction between various subsystems constituting the global surface layer system. It is believed that in the D-O cycle there were changes not only in temperature but also in aridity/moisture and in the sea level, and probabilities are high that there was a great local variation in the way the changes took effect. The possibility has now become lower that the D-O cycle occurred in the interglacial epoch in the high latitude belt in the northern hemisphere, yet it remains likely that the climate changes driving the D-O cycle continued in the low latitude belt. 57 refs., 8 figs.

Role of the Bering Strait on the hysteresis of the ocean conveyor belt circulation and glacial climate stability.

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Aixue; Meehl, Gerald A; Han, Weiqing; Timmermann, Axel; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Liu, Zhengyu; Washington, Warren M; Large, William; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Kimoto, Masahide; Lambeck, Kurt; Wu, Bingyi

2012-04-24

Abrupt climate transitions, known as Dansgaard-Oeschger and Heinrich events, occurred frequently during the last glacial period, specifically from 80-11 thousand years before present, but were nearly absent during interglacial periods and the early stages of glacial periods, when major ice-sheets were still forming. Here we show, with a fully coupled state-of-the-art climate model, that closing the Bering Strait and preventing its throughflow between the Pacific and Arctic Oceans during the glacial period can lead to the emergence of stronger hysteresis behavior of the ocean conveyor belt circulation to create conditions that are conducive to triggering abrupt climate transitions. Hence, it is argued that even for greenhouse warming, abrupt climate transitions similar to those in the last glacial time are unlikely to occur as the Bering Strait remains open.

Detecting Abrupt Change of Streamflow at Lintong Station of Wei River

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jingjing Fan

2013-01-01

Full Text Available According to abrupt diagnosis of runoff, two methods, that is, moving approximate entropy and moving permutation entropy, are used to analyse the abrupt year of the daily river runoff from 1961 to 2006 at Lintong station of Wei River in Loess Plateau. The runoff series are divided into 4 stages. With the analysis of hydrological characters of different stages, we find that there are abrupt changes at the three years 1972, 1983, and 2002. The result shows that moving approximate entropy and moving permutation entropy methods are useful tools for abrupt diagnosis of runoff. The attribution of abrupt change at the Lintong runoff series is primarily due to the reduced precipitation, increased water conservancy project, increased water consumption of industry and agriculture, significantly decreased groundwater table, and increased evaporation.

Temperature and rainfall strongly drive temporal growth variation in Asian tropical forest trees.

Science.gov (United States)

Vlam, Mart; Baker, Patrick J; Bunyavejchewin, Sarayudh; Zuidema, Pieter A

2014-04-01

Climate change effects on growth rates of tropical trees may lead to alterations in carbon cycling of carbon-rich tropical forests. However, climate sensitivity of broad-leaved lowland tropical trees is poorly understood. Dendrochronology (tree-ring analysis) provides a powerful tool to study the relationship between tropical tree growth and annual climate variability. We aimed to establish climate-growth relationships for five annual-ring forming tree species, using ring-width data from 459 canopy and understory trees from a seasonal tropical forest in western Thailand. Based on 183/459 trees, chronologies with total lengths between 29 and 62 years were produced for four out of five species. Bootstrapped correlation analysis revealed that climate-growth responses were similar among these four species. Growth was significantly negatively correlated with current-year maximum and minimum temperatures, and positively correlated with dry-season precipitation levels. Negative correlations between growth and temperature may be attributed to a positive relationship between temperature and autotrophic respiration rates. The positive relationship between growth and dry-season precipitation levels likely reflects the strong water demand during leaf flush. Mixed-effect models yielded results that were consistent across species: a negative effect of current wet-season maximum temperatures on growth, but also additive positive effects of, for example, prior dry-season maximum temperatures. Our analyses showed that annual growth variability in tropical trees is determined by a combination of both temperature and precipitation variability. With rising temperature, the predominantly negative relationship between temperature and growth may imply decreasing growth rates of tropical trees as a result of global warming.

Tropical cyclones in a stabilized 1.5 and 2 degree warmer world.

Science.gov (United States)

Wehner, M. F.; Stone, D. A.; Loring, B.; Krishnan, H.

2017-12-01

We present an ensemble of very high resolution global climate model simulations of a stabilized 1.5oC and 2oC warmer climate as envisioned by the Paris COP21 agreement. The resolution of this global climate model (25km) permits simulated tropical cyclones up to Category Five on the Saffir-Simpson scale Projected changes in tropical cyclones are significant. Tropical cyclones in the two stabilization scenarios are less frequent but more intense than in simulations of the present. Output data from these simulations is freely available to all interested parties and should prove a useful resource to those interested in studying the impacts of stabilized global warming.

Thermal comfort of various building layouts with a proposed discomfort index range for tropical climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Md Din, Mohd Fadhil; Lee, Yee Yong; Ponraj, Mohanadoss; Ossen, Dilshan Remaz; Iwao, Kenzo; Chelliapan, Shreeshivadasan

2014-04-01

Recent years have seen issues related to thermal comfort gaining more momentum in tropical countries. The thermal adaptation and thermal comfort index play a significant role in evaluating the outdoor thermal comfort. In this study, the aim is to capture the thermal sensation of respondents at outdoor environment through questionnaire survey and to determine the discomfort index (DI) to measure the thermal discomfort level. The results indicated that most respondents had thermally accepted the existing environment conditions although they felt slightly warm and hot. A strong correlation between thermal sensation and measured DI was also identified. As a result, a new discomfort index range had been proposed in association with local climate and thermal sensation of occupants to evaluate thermal comfort. The results had proved that the respondents can adapt to a wider range of thermal conditions.Validation of the questionnaire data at Putrajaya was done to prove that the thermal sensation in both Putrajaya and UTM was almost similar since they are located in the same tropical climate region. Hence, a quantitative field study on building layouts was done to facilitate the outdoor human discomfort level based on newly proposed discomfort index range. The results showed that slightly shaded building layouts of type- A and B exhibited higher temperature and discomfort index. The resultant adaptive thermal comfort theory was incorporated into the field studies as well. Finally, the study also showed that the DI values were highly dependent on ambient temperature and relative humidity but had fewer effects for solar radiation intensity. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Towards a Statistical Model of Tropical Cyclone Genesis

Science.gov (United States)

Fernandez, A.; Kashinath, K.; McAuliffe, J.; Prabhat, M.; Stark, P. B.; Wehner, M. F.

2017-12-01

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are important extreme weather phenomena that have a strong impact on humans. TC forecasts are largely based on global numerical models that produce TC-like features. Aspects of Tropical Cyclones such as their formation/genesis, evolution, intensification and dissipation over land are important and challenging problems in climate science. This study investigates the environmental conditions associated with Tropical Cyclone Genesis (TCG) by testing how accurately a statistical model can predict TCG in the CAM5.1 climate model. TCG events are defined using TECA software @inproceedings{Prabhat2015teca, title={TECA: Petascale Pattern Recognition for Climate Science}, author={Prabhat and Byna, Surendra and Vishwanath, Venkatram and Dart, Eli and Wehner, Michael and Collins, William D}, booktitle={Computer Analysis of Images and Patterns}, pages={426-436}, year={2015}, organization={Springer}} to extract TC trajectories from CAM5.1. L1-regularized logistic regression (L1LR) is applied to the CAM5.1 output. The predictions have nearly perfect accuracy for data not associated with TC tracks and high accuracy differentiating between high vorticity and low vorticity systems. The model's active variables largely correspond to current hypotheses about important factors for TCG, such as wind field patterns and local pressure minima, and suggests new routes for investigation. Furthermore, our model's predictions of TC activity are competitive with the output of an instantaneous version of Emanuel and Nolan's Genesis Potential Index (GPI) @inproceedings{eman04, title = "Tropical cyclone activity and the global climate system", author = "Kerry Emanuel and Nolan, {David S.}", year = "2004", pages = "240-241", booktitle = "26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology"}.

Radio Occultation Bending Angle Anomalies During Tropical Cyclones

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Biondi, Riccardo; Neubert, Torsten; Syndergaard, Stig

signature in radio occultation profiles in the tropical tropopause layer. Using tropical cyclone best track database and data from the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC), we show that the bending angle anomaly of a GPS radio occultation signal is typically larger...

Hurricanes and Climate: the U.S. CLIVAR Working Group on Hurricanes

Science.gov (United States)

Walsh, Kevin; Camargo, Suzana J.; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Daloz, Anne Sophie; Elsner, James; Emanuel, Kerry; Horn, Michael; Lim, Young-Kwon; Roberts, Malcolm; Patricola, Christina;

Ocean cleaning stations under a changing climate: biological responses of tropical and temperate fish-cleaner shrimp to global warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Rosa, Rui; Lopes, Ana Rita; Pimentel, Marta; Faleiro, Filipa; Baptista, Miguel; Trübenbach, Katja; Narciso, Luis; Dionísio, Gisela; Pegado, Maria Rita; Repolho, Tiago; Calado, Ricardo; Diniz, Mário

2014-10-01

Cleaning symbioses play an important role in the health of certain coastal marine communities. These interspecific associations often occur at specific sites (cleaning stations) where a cleaner organism (commonly a fish or shrimp) removes ectoparasites/damaged tissue from a 'client' (a larger cooperating fish). At present, the potential impact of climate change on the fitness of cleaner organisms remains unknown. This study investigated the physiological and biochemical responses of tropical (Lysmata amboinensis) and temperate (L. seticaudata) cleaner shrimp to global warming. Specifically, thermal limits (CTMax), metabolic rates, thermal sensitivity, heat shock response (HSR), lipid peroxidation [malondialdehyde (MDA) concentration], lactate levels, antioxidant (GST, SOD and catalase) and digestive enzyme activities (trypsin and alkaline phosphatase) at current and warming (+3 °C) temperature conditions. In contrast to the temperate species, CTMax values decreased significantly from current (24-27 °C) to warming temperature conditions (30 °C) for the tropical shrimp, where metabolic thermal sensitivity was affected and the HSR was significantly reduced. MDA levels in tropical shrimp increased dramatically, indicating extreme cellular lipid peroxidation, which was not observed in the temperate shrimp. Lactate levels, GST and SOD activities were significantly enhanced within the muscle tissue of the tropical species. Digestive enzyme activities in the hepatopancreas of both species were significantly decreased by warmer temperatures. Our data suggest that the tropical cleaner shrimp will be more vulnerable to global warming than the temperate Lysmata seticaudata; the latter evolved in a relatively unstable environment with seasonal thermal variations that may have conferred greater adaptive plasticity. Thus, tropical cleaning symbioses may be challenged at a greater degree by warming-related anthropogenic forcing, with potential cascading effects on the health

The Neogene rise of the tropical Andes facilitated diversification of wax palms (Ceroxylon: Arecaceae) through geographical colonization and climatic niche separation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sanín, María José; Kissling, W. Daniel; Bacon, Christine D.

2016-01-01

The tropical Andes are a biodiversity hotspot, partly due to their rich and complex floristic composition. A fundamental question regarding this outstanding biodiversity is what role the Andean orogeny has played in species diversification. Ceroxylon is a genus of endemic Andean palms that stands...... gradients. Ancestral areas were reconstructed under a model allowing for founder-event speciation and climatic niches were inferred from climatic variables at present-day occurrences of all species. Niche evolution in a phylogenetic framework was evaluated by testing differences between the climatic niches...... of clades. Our analyses identified four main clades, with a general pattern of diversification through geographical colonization from south to north after the Pliocene uplift of the northern Andes. Adaptation to low temperatures was conserved at the generic level, with climatic niche differentiation among...

Varying Influence of Different Forcings on the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Mohtadi, M.; Huang, E.; Hollstein, M.; Chen, Y.; Schefuß, E.; Rosenthal, Y.; Prange, M.; Oppo, D.; Liu, J.; Steinke, S.; Martinez-Mendez, G.; Tian, J.; Moffa-Sanchez, P.; Lückge, A.

2017-12-01

Proxy records of rainfall in marine archives from the eastern and western parts of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) vary at precessional band and suggest a dominant role of orbital forcing by modulating monsoon rainfall and the position of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone. Rainfall changes recorded in marine archives from the northern South China Sea reveal a more complex history. They are largely consistent with those recorded in the Chinese cave speleothems during glacial periods, but show opposite changes during interglacial peaks that coincide with strong Northern Hemisphere summer insolation maxima. During glacial periods, the establishment of massive Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and the exposure of broad continental shelves in East and Southeast Asia alter the large-scale routes and amounts of water vapor transport onto land relative to interglacials. Precipitation over China during glacials varies at precessional band and is dominated by water vapor transport from the nearby tropical and northwest Pacific, resulting in consistent changes in precipitation over large areas. In the absence of ice forcing during peak interglacials with a strong summer insolation, the low-level southerly monsoonal winds mainly of the Indian Ocean origin penetrate further landward and rainout along their path over China. Subsurface temperatures from the IPWP lack changes on glacial-interglacial timescales but follow the obliquity cycle, and suggest that obliquity-paced climate variations at mid-latitudes remotely control subsurface temperatures in the IPWP. Temperature and rainfall in the IPWP respond primarily to abrupt climate changes in the North Atlantic on millennial timescales, and to ENSO and solar forcing on interannual to decadal timescales. In summary, results from marine records reveal that the IPWP climate is sensitive to changes in spatial and temporal distribution of heat by many types of forcing, the influence of which seems to vary in time and space.

Oasis deposits in the southern margin of the Taklimakan Desert and abrupt environmental changes during the last 30 ka

Science.gov (United States)

Shu, P.; Li, B.; Wang, H.; Cheng, P.; An, Z.; Zhou, W.; Zhang, D. D.

2017-12-01

Taklimakan Desert, the largest arid landform in the Eurasia, is one of the most important dust sources in the world. Growing evidences shows that millennial-scale abrupt climate changes during the last glacial period in the region. However, records on millennial-scale climate and environmental changes remain poorly understood because dating eolian, lacustrine, and fluvial sediments and establishing the reliable environmental proxies from these records are always challenging. Here, we present 32 AMS 14C dates of bulk sediments, grain size, and Rb/Sr ratio parameters from the oasis sequence and dates of bulk loess and charcoal from the upstream source regions to examine the significance of oasis sediments on millennial-scale environmental changes in the Taklimakan Desert. We found that substantial reversal of radiocarbon dates on total organic carbon (TOC) was controlled by source region organic carbon input. Loess hills, alpine meadow north of the study region provided fluvial deposits along drainage system and deflation in the river valleys further provide eolain materials. We argue that early oasis deposits experienced deflation and re-deposition less severe than the younger oasis deposits. After refining radiocarbon age-depth relationships for an age model by Bacon package, proxy records show substantial abrupt fluctuations in climate and environments during the last glacial period, among which three wet intervals, two dry periods are identified. The wetter and warmer conditions during the Holocene facilitated human to occupy the oasis.

Simple climatic indices for the tropical Atlantic Ocean and some applications

Science.gov (United States)

Servain, Jacques

1991-08-01

Two indices related to the sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the tropical Atlantic are proposed. One index describes the SST averaged over the whole basin (30°N to 20°S, 60°W to 15°E), and the other illustrates a meridional dipole between the northern and southern hemispheres. The computational method for obtaining these indices is intentionally kept simple, the objective being to reproduce the signature of the main results previously provided from more complicated statistical analyses. Monthly time series for both indices are produced from 1964 up to the present time. The whole basin index exhibits principally a sustained warming which has intensified since about 1975, and it has a significant periodicity close to that of the quasi-biennial oscillation. The dipole index exhibits a decadal-scale variation, and its building up seems to be related to other worldwide climatic changes, as for instance El Niño / Southern Oscillation extreme episodes, rainfall variabilities over the Brazilian Nordeste and African Sahel.

Physical and perceptual cooling with beverages to increase cycle performance in a tropical climate.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Florence Riera

Full Text Available This study compares the effects of neutral temperature, cold and ice-slush beverages, with and without 0.5% menthol on cycling performance, core temperature (Tco and stress responses in a tropical climate (hot and humid conditions.Twelve trained male cyclists/triathletes completed six 20-km exercise trials against the clock in 30.7°C±0.8°C and 78%±0.03% relative humidity. Before and after warm-up, and before exercise and every 5 km during exercise, athletes drank 190 mL of either aromatized (i.e., with 0.5 mL of menthol (5 gr/L or a non-aromatized beverage (neutral temperature: 23°C±0.1°C, cold: 3°C±0.1°C, or ice-slush: -1°C±0.7°C. During the trials, heart rate (HR was continuously monitored, whereas core temperature (Tco, thermal comfort (TC, thermal sensation (TS and rate of perceived exertion (RPE were measured before and after warm-up, every 5 km of exercise, and at the end of exercise and after recovery.Both the beverage aroma (P<0.02 and beverage temperature (P<0.02 had significant and positive effects on performance, which was considerably better with ice-slush than with a neutral temperature beverage, whatever the aroma (P<0.002, and with menthol vs non-menthol (P<0.02. The best performances were obtained with ice-slush/menthol and cold/menthol, as opposed to neutral/menthol. No differences were noted in HR and Tco between trials.Cold water or ice-slush with menthol aroma seems to be the most effective beverage for endurance exercise in a tropical climate. Further studies are needed to explore its effects in field competition.

Controls on the meridional extent of tropical precipitation and its contraction under global warming

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Donohoe, A.

2017-12-01

A method for decomposing changes and variability in the spatial structure of tropical precipitation into shifting (meridional translation), contracting, and intensifying modes of variability is introduced. We demonstrate that the shifting mode of tropical precipitation explains very little (20%) more of the tropical precipitation changes and variability. Furthermore, the contraction of tropical precipitation is highly correlated (R2 > 0.95) with an intensification of the precipitation in both the observations and forced modeled simulations. These results suggest that the simultaneous contraction and intensification of tropical precipitation is the dominant mode of variability and changes under external forcing. We speculate that tropical surface temperature controls this concurrent variability. Indeed, models robustly predict that tropical precipitation increases and meridionally contracts in response to increased CO2 and is reduced and meridionally expanded under glacial forcing and boundary conditions. In contrast, the directionality of the tropical precipitation shift is both ambiguous and small in magnitude in response to increased CO2. Furthermore, the ratio of the contraction/expansion to intensification/reduction is consistent in the continuum of climate states from the glacial climate to a modern climate to a 4XCO2 climate suggesting that the intensification and contraction are linked together via a single mechanism. We examine two mechanisms responsible for the contraction of the precipitation under global warming : i. the reduction of the seasonal cycle of energy input to the atmosphere due to sea ice retreat that results in the tropical precipitation remaining closer to the equator during the solsticial seasons and; ii. the increased gross moist stability of the tropical atmosphere as the surface warms resulting in a weaker cross-equatorial Hadley circulation during the solsticial seasons.

Temperature and rainfall interact to control carbon cycling in tropical forests.

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, Philip G; Cleveland, Cory C; Wieder, William R; Sullivan, Benjamin W; Doughty, Christopher E; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Townsend, Alan R

2017-06-01

Tropical forests dominate global terrestrial carbon (C) exchange, and recent droughts in the Amazon Basin have contributed to short-term declines in terrestrial carbon dioxide uptake and storage. However, the effects of longer-term climate variability on tropical forest carbon dynamics are still not well understood. We synthesised field data from more than 150 tropical forest sites to explore how climate regulates tropical forest aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) and organic matter decomposition, and combined those data with two existing databases to explore climate - C relationships globally. While previous analyses have focused on the effects of either temperature or rainfall on ANPP, our results highlight the importance of interactions between temperature and rainfall on the C cycle. In cool forests (forests (> 20 °C) it consistently enhanced both ANPP and decomposition. At the global scale, our analysis showed an increase in ANPP with rainfall in relatively warm sites, inconsistent with declines in ANPP with rainfall reported previously. Overall, our results alter our understanding of climate - C cycle relationships, with high precipitation accelerating rates of C exchange with the atmosphere in the most productive biome on earth. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Large rainfall changes consistently projected over substantial areas of tropical land

Science.gov (United States)

Chadwick, Robin; Good, Peter; Martin, Gill; Rowell, David P.

2016-02-01

Many tropical countries are exceptionally vulnerable to changes in rainfall patterns, with floods or droughts often severely affecting human life and health, food and water supplies, ecosystems and infrastructure. There is widespread disagreement among climate model projections of how and where rainfall will change over tropical land at the regional scales relevant to impacts, with different models predicting the position of current tropical wet and dry regions to shift in different ways. Here we show that despite uncertainty in the location of future rainfall shifts, climate models consistently project that large rainfall changes will occur for a considerable proportion of tropical land over the twenty-first century. The area of semi-arid land affected by large changes under a higher emissions scenario is likely to be greater than during even the most extreme regional wet or dry periods of the twentieth century, such as the Sahel drought of the late 1960s to 1990s. Substantial changes are projected to occur by mid-century--earlier than previously expected--and to intensify in line with global temperature rise. Therefore, current climate projections contain quantitative, decision-relevant information on future regional rainfall changes, particularly with regard to climate change mitigation policy.

A study of nephron function in normal tropical residents using the creatinine and lithium clearances

Science.gov (United States)

Arthur, S. K.; Nyarko, A. K.; Asaku, J. Y.; Akyeampong, A. Y.

The kidney bears the brunt of the demands of a tropical climate for water and electrolyte homeostasis. We hypothesised that a tropical climate may cause adaptive changes in the entire organism leading to altered renal function in our subjects. Hence renal function data for residents of a temperate climate may not be applic- able to tropical residents. We therefore sought to elucidate renal function in subjects residing in a tropical climate. We used lithium clearance, CLi, a non-invasive tool for assessing proximal tubular function in humans, and endogenous creatinine clearance, CCr, to estimate proximal tubular function and glomerular function, respectively, in our subjects. We did this in order to establish whether or not nephron function in our subjects differs from that for residents of a temperate climate. Nineteen male and 12 female Ghanaian subjects aged between 15 and 48 years were studied. The estimated GCr was 117.3+/-6.6 ml/min for male subjects and 97+/-6.4 ml/min for female subjects. CLi was 20.3+/-1.6 ml/min for male and 19.1+/-0.4 ml/min for female subjects, respectively. The estimated absolute reabsorption rate of fluid of proximal tubules was 97.0+/-6.0 ml/min for males and 78.1+/-6.0 ml/min for females. The percentage proximal fluid reabsorption for male and female subjects was 81.2+/-1.4 and 79.5+/-1.6, respectively. The differences between male and female values (mean+/-SEM) were not statistically significant. The data suggest that the proximal tubule in residents of a tropical climate may reabsorb more fluid compared to that in residents of a temperate climate. Our values for proximal tubular reabsorption are higher than those reported for residents of a temperature climate. Our estimate of glomerular filtration, however, is similar to published data for Caucasians. The difference in proximal tubular function may reflect possible renal adaptation to a hot, humid climate. We conclude that renal function of tropical residents differs from that of

Impacts of warming on tropical lowland rainforests.

Science.gov (United States)

Corlett, Richard T

2011-11-01

Before the end of this century, tropical rainforests will be subject to climatic conditions that have not existed anywhere on Earth for millions of years. These forests are the most species-rich ecosystems in the world and play a crucial role in regulating carbon and water feedbacks in the global climate system; therefore, it is important that the probable impacts of anthropogenic climate change are understood. However, the recent literature shows a striking range of views on the vulnerability of tropical rainforests, from least to most concern among major ecosystems. This review, which focuses on the impact of rising temperatures, examines the evidence for and against high vulnerability, identifies key research needs for resolving current differences and suggests ways of mitigating or adapting to potential impacts. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fire, climate and vegetation linkages in the Bolivian Chiquitano seasonally dry tropical forest.

Science.gov (United States)

Power, M J; Whitney, B S; Mayle, F E; Neves, D M; de Boer, E J; Maclean, K S

2016-06-05

South American seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs) are critically endangered, with only a small proportion of their original distribution remaining. This paper presents a 12 000 year reconstruction of climate change, fire and vegetation dynamics in the Bolivian Chiquitano SDTF, based upon pollen and charcoal analysis, to examine the resilience of this ecosystem to drought and fire. Our analysis demonstrates a complex relationship between climate, fire and floristic composition over multi-millennial time scales, and reveals that moisture variability is the dominant control upon community turnover in this ecosystem. Maximum drought during the Early Holocene, consistent with regional drought reconstructions, correlates with a period of significant fire activity between 8000 and 7000 cal yr BP which resulted in a decrease in SDTF diversity. As fire activity declined but severe regional droughts persisted through the Middle Holocene, SDTFs, including Anadenanthera and Astronium, became firmly established in the Bolivian lowlands. The trend of decreasing fire activity during the last two millennia promotes the idea among forest ecologists that SDTFs are threatened by fire. Our analysis shows that the Chiquitano seasonally dry biome has been more resilient to Holocene changes in climate and fire regime than previously assumed, but raises questions over whether this resilience will continue in the future under increased temperatures and drought coupled with a higher frequency anthropogenic fire regime.This article is part of the themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'. © 2016 The Author(s).

Advances in Understanding Decadal Climate Variability

Science.gov (United States)

Busalacchi, Antonio J.

1999-01-01

Recently, a joint Brazil-France-U.S. program, known as PIRATA (Pilot Research moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic), was proposed to begin the deployment of moored measurement platforms in the tropical Atlantic in order to enhance the existing observational data base and subsequent understanding of the processes by which the ocean and atmosphere couple in key regions of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Empirical studies have suggested that there are strong relationships between tropical Atlantic upper ocean variability, SST, ocean-atmosphere coupling and regional climate variability. During the early 1980's a coordinated set of surface wind, subsurface thermal structure, and subsurface current observations were obtained as part of the U.S.-France SEQUAL-FOCAL process experiment designed to observe the seasonal response of the tropical Atlantic Ocean to surface forcing. Since that time, however, the observational data base for the tropical Atlantic Ocean has disintegrated to a few ship-tracks measuring ocean temperatures and a small collection of tide gauge stations measuring sea level. A more comprehensive set of observations, modeling and empirical studies is now in order to make progress on understanding the regional climate variability. The proposed PIRATA program will use mooring platforms similar to the tropical Pacific Ocean TAO array to measure surface fluxes of momentum and heat and the corresponding changes in the upper ocean thermal structure. It is anticipated that the oceanic data from this monitoring array will also be used in a predictive mode for initialization studies of regional coupled climate models. Of particular interest are zonal and meridional modes of ocean-atmosphere variability within the tropical Atlantic basin that have significant impacts on the regional climate of the bordering continents.

e-phenology: monitoring leaf phenology and tracking climate changes in the tropics

Science.gov (United States)

Morellato, Patrícia; Alberton, Bruna; Almeida, Jurandy; Alex, Jefersson; Mariano, Greice; Torres, Ricardo

2014-05-01

The e-phenology is a multidisciplinary project combining research in Computer Science and Phenology. Its goal is to attack theoretical and practical problems involving the use of new technologies for remote phenological observation aiming to detect local environmental changes. It is geared towards three objectives: (a) the use of new technologies of environmental monitoring based on remote phenology monitoring systems; (b) creation of a protocol for a Brazilian long term phenology monitoring program and for the integration across disciplines, advancing our knowledge of seasonal responses within tropics to climate change; and (c) provide models, methods and algorithms to support management, integration and analysis of data of remote phenology systems. The research team is composed by computer scientists and biology researchers in Phenology. Our first results include: Phenology towers - We set up the first phenology tower in our core cerrado-savanna 1 study site at Itirapina, São Paulo, Brazil. The tower received a complete climatic station and a digital camera. The digital camera is set up to take daily sequence of images (five images per hour, from 6:00 to 18:00 h). We set up similar phenology towers with climatic station and cameras in five more sites: cerrado-savanna 2 (Pé de Gigante, SP), cerrado grassland 3 (Itirapina, SP), rupestrian fields 4 ( Serra do Cipo, MG), seasonal forest 5 (Angatuba, SP) and Atlantic raiforest 6 (Santa Virginia, SP). Phenology database - We finished modeling and validation of a phenology database that stores ground phenology and near-remote phenology, and we are carrying out the implementation with data ingestion. Remote phenology and image processing - We performed the first analyses of the cerrado sites 1 to 4 phenology derived from digital images. Analysis were conducted by extracting color information (RGB Red, Green and Blue color channels) from selected parts of the image named regions of interest (ROI). using the green color

An empirical framework for tropical cyclone climatology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kang, Nam-Young [Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL (United States); Elsner, James B. [Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL (United States)

2012-08-15

An empirical approach for analyzing tropical cyclone climate is presented. The approach uses lifetime-maximum wind speed and cyclone frequency to induce two orthogonal variables labeled ''activity'' and ''efficiency of intensity''. The paired variations of activity and efficiency of intensity along with the opponent variations of frequency and intensity configure a framework for evaluating tropical cyclone climate. Although cyclone activity as defined in this framework is highly correlated with the commonly used exponent indices like accumulated cyclone energy, it does not contain cyclone duration. Empirical quantiles are used to determine threshold intensity levels, and variant year ranges are used to find consistent trends in tropical cyclone climatology. In the western North Pacific, cyclone activity is decreasing despite increases in lifetime-maximum intensity. This is due to overwhelming decreases in cyclone frequency. These changes are also explained by an increasing efficiency of intensity. The North Atlantic shows different behavior. Cyclone activity is increasing due to increasing frequency and, to a lesser extent, increasing intensity. These changes are also explained by a decreasing efficiency of intensity. Tropical cyclone trends over the North Atlantic basin are more consistent over different year ranges than tropical cyclone trends over the western North Pacific. (orig.)

Study of tropical clouds feedback to a climate warming as simulated by climate models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brient, Florent

2012-01-01

amplitude of cloud feedback is proportional to the cloud cooling effect in the present climate. This effect is influenced by uncertain parameters of model physics which modify intensity of the positive β feedback between cloud radiative cooling, relative humidity and cloud fraction (self-maintenance of low clouds) In order to assess the generality of this feedback mechanism, we perform among several atmospheric CMIP5 models. Those models simulate a robust positive tropical low cloud feedback. The use of seasonal variability to anticipate amplitudes of low-cloud response under global warming, and to design an observational test for their evaluation will be discussed. (author)

Tropical and Subtropical Cloud Transitions in Weather and Climate Prediction Models: The GCSS/WGNE Pacific Cross-Section Intercomparison (GPCI)

Science.gov (United States)

Teixeira, J.; Cardoso, S.; Bonazzola, M.; Cole, J.; DeGenio, A.; DeMott, C.; Franklin, C.; Hannay, C.; Jakob, C.; Jiao, Y.;

Climate Prediction Center(CPC)Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Assessment

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Assessment (GTH) is an outlook product for the areas in the Tropics. Forecasts for the Week-1 and Week-2 period are given for...

Simulating changes in ecosystem structure and composition in response to climate change: a case study focused on tropical nitrogen-fixing trees (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Medvigy, D.; Levy, J.; Xu, X.; Batterman, S. A.; Hedin, L.

2013-12-01

Ecosystems, by definition, involve a community of organisms. These communities generally exhibit heterogeneity in their structure and composition as a result of local variations in climate, soil, topography, disturbance history, and other factors. Climate-driven shifts in ecosystems will likely include an internal re-organization of community structure and composition and as well as the introduction of novel species. In terms of vegetation, this ecosystem heterogeneity can occur at relatively small scales, sometimes of the order of tens of meters or even less. Because this heterogeneous landscape generally has a variable and nonlinear response to environmental perturbations, it is necessary to carefully aggregate the local competitive dynamics between individual plants to the large scales of tens or hundreds of kilometers represented in climate models. Accomplishing this aggregation in a computationally efficient way has proven to be an extremely challenging task. To meet this challenge, the Ecosystem Demography 2 (ED2) model statistically characterizes a distribution of local resource environments, and then simulates the competition between individuals of different sizes and species (or functional groupings). Within this framework, it is possible to explicitly simulate the impacts of climate change on ecosystem structure and composition, including both internal re-organization and the introduction of novel species or functional groups. This presentation will include several illustrative applications of the evolution of ecosystem structure and composition under climate change. One application pertains to the role of nitrogen-fixing species in tropical forests. Will increasing CO2 concentrations increase the demand for nutrients and perhaps give a competitive edge to nitrogen-fixing species? Will potentially warmer and drier conditions make some tropical forests more water-limited, reducing the demand for nitrogen, thereby giving a competitive advantage to non

The association between maternal smoking and placenta abruption: a meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Shobeiri, Fatemeh; Masoumi, Seyedeh Zahra; Jenabi, Ensiyeh

2017-08-01

Several epidemiological studies have determined that maternal smoking can increase the risk of placenta abruption. To date, only a meta-analysis has been performed for assessing the relationship between smoking and placenta abruption. This meta-analysis was conducted to estimate the association between smoking and the risk of placenta abruption. A literature search was conducted in major databases such as PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus from the earliest possible year to April 2016. The heterogeneity across studies was explored by Q-test and I 2 statistic. The publication bias was assessed using Begg's and Egger's tests. The results were reported using odds ratio (OR) estimate with its 95% confidence intervals (CI) using a random effects model. The literature search yielded 1167 publications until April 2016 with 4 309 610 participants. Based on OR estimates obtained from case-control and cohort studies, there was a significant association between smoking and placenta abruption (1.80; 95% CI: 1.75, 1.85). Based on the results of cohort studies, smoking and placenta abruption had a significant association (relative risk ratio: 1.65; 95% CI: 1.51, 1.80). Based on reports in epidemiological studies, we showed that smoking is a risk factor for placenta abruption.

The future of tropical forests.

Science.gov (United States)

Wright, S Joseph

2010-05-01

Five anthropogenic drivers--land use change, wood extraction, hunting, atmospheric change, climate change--will largely determine the future of tropical forests. The geographic scope and intensity of these five drivers are in flux. Contemporary land use change includes deforestation (approximately 64,000 km(2) yr(-1) for the entire tropical forest biome) and natural forests regenerating on abandoned land (approximately 21,500 km(2) yr(-1) with just 29% of the biome evaluated). Commercial logging is shifting rapidly from Southeast Asia to Africa and South America, but local fuelwood consumption continues to constitute 71% of all wood production. Pantropical rates of net deforestation are declining even as secondary and logged forests increasingly replace old-growth forests. Hunters reduce frugivore, granivore and browser abundances in most forests. This alters seed dispersal, seed and seedling survival, and hence the species composition and spatial template of plant regeneration. Tropical governments have responded to these local threats by protecting 7% of all land for the strict conservation of nature--a commitment that is only matched poleward of 40 degrees S and 70 degrees N. Protected status often fails to stop hunters and is impotent against atmospheric and climate change. There are increasing reports of stark changes in the structure and dynamics of protected tropical forests. Four broad classes of mechanisms might contribute to these changes. Predictions are developed to distinguish among these mechanisms.

Fluvial response to abrupt global warming at the Palaeocene/Eocene boundary.

Science.gov (United States)

Foreman, Brady Z; Heller, Paul L; Clementz, Mark T

2012-11-01

Climate strongly affects the production of sediment from mountain catchments as well as its transport and deposition within adjacent sedimentary basins. However, identifying climatic influences on basin stratigraphy is complicated by nonlinearities, feedback loops, lag times, buffering and convergence among processes within the sediment routeing system. The Palaeocene/Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) arguably represents the most abrupt and dramatic instance of global warming in the Cenozoic era and has been proposed to be a geologic analogue for anthropogenic climate change. Here we evaluate the fluvial response in western Colorado to the PETM. Concomitant with the carbon isotope excursion marking the PETM we document a basin-wide shift to thick, multistoried, sheets of sandstone characterized by variable channel dimensions, dominance of upper flow regime sedimentary structures, and prevalent crevasse splay deposits. This progradation of coarse-grained lithofacies matches model predictions for rapid increases in sediment flux and discharge, instigated by regional vegetation overturn and enhanced monsoon precipitation. Yet the change in fluvial deposition persisted long after the approximately 200,000-year-long PETM with its increased carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere, emphasizing the strong role the protracted transmission of catchment responses to distant depositional systems has in constructing large-scale basin stratigraphy. Our results, combined with evidence for increased dissolved loads and terrestrial clay export to world oceans, indicate that the transient hyper-greenhouse climate of the PETM may represent a major geomorphic 'system-clearing event', involving a global mobilization of dissolved and solid sediment loads on Earth's surface.

Proxies of Tropical Cyclone Isotope Spikes in Precipitation: Landfall Site Selection

Science.gov (United States)

Lawrence, J. R.; Maddocks, R.

2011-12-01

The human experience of climate change is not one of gradual changes in seasonal or yearly changes in temperature or rainfall. Despite that most paleoclimatic reconstructions attempt to provide just such information. Humans experience climate change on much shorter time scales. We remember hurricanes, weeks of drought or overwhelming rainy periods. Tropical cyclones produce very low isotope ratios in both rainfall and in atmospheric water vapor. Thus, climate proxies that potentially record these low isotope ratios offer the most concrete record of climate change to which humans can relate. The oxygen isotopic composition of tropical cyclone rainfall has the potential to be recorded in fresh water carbonate fossil material, cave deposits and corals. The hydrogen isotopic composition of tropical cyclone rainfall has the potential to be recorded in tree ring cellulose and organic matter in fresh water bodies. The Class of carbonate organisms known as Ostracoda form their carapaces very rapidly. Thus fresh water ephemeral ponds in the subtropics are ideal locations for isotopic studies because they commonly are totally dry when tropical cyclones make landfall. The other proxies suffer primarily from a dilution effect. The water from tropical cyclones is mixed with pre-existing water. In cave deposits tropical cyclone rains mix with soil and ground waters. In the near shore coral environment the rain mixes with seawater. For tree rings there are three sources of water: soil water, atmospheric water vapor that exchanges with leaf water and tropical cyclone rain. In lakes because of their large size rainfall runoff mixes with ground water and preexisting water in the lake. A region that shows considerable promise is Texas / Northeast Mexico. In a study of surface waters that developed from the passage of Tropical Storm Allison (2001) in SE Texas both the pond water and Ostracoda that bloomed recorded the low oxygen isotope signal of that storm (Lawrence et al, 2008). In

Sensible climates in monsoon Asia.

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Ono, H S; Kawamura, T

1991-06-01

This study identifies characteristics of the geographical distribution of sensible climates and their diurnal and annual variations, and presents a classification of bioclimates in monsoon Asia by using Kawamura's discomfort index formula. During the hottest month, tropical areas and areas in central and South China are uncomfortable for humans throughout the day and night, and temperate zones in lowlands are uncomfortable during the daytime. Tropical zones are uncomfortable all year long and temperate zones in lowlands are uncomfortable during summer. Four climatic types were distinguished in monsoon Asia. Climatic type I, hyperthermal throughout the year, occurs in the tropics south of latitude 20 degrees N. Climatic type II, hyperthermal in the hottest month and comfortable in the coldest month, extends over latitudes from 20 degrees to 30 degrees N except in the highlands. Climatic type III, hyperthermal in the hottest month and hypothermal in the coldest month, encompasses temperate zones of East Asia and subtropical arid areas of northwestern India. Climatic type V, comfortable in the hottest month and hypothermal in coldest month, occurs near the southeast coast of the Soviet Union and in the highlands of the Himalayas.

Global change integrating factors: Tropical tropopause trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reck, R.A.

1994-01-01

This research proposes new criteria, shifts in the height and temperature of the tropical tropopause, as measures of global climate change. The search for signs of global warming in the temperature signal near the earth's surface is extremely difficult, largely because numerous factors contribute to surface temperature forcing with only a small signal-to-noise ratio relative to long-term effects. In the long term, no part of the atmosphere can be considered individually because the evolution will be a function of all states of all portions. A large surface greenhouse signal might ultimately be expected, but the analysis of surface temperature may not be particularly useful for early detection. What is suggested here is not an analysis of trends in the surface temperature field or any of its spatial averages, but rather an integrating factor or integrator, a single measure of global change that could be considered a test of significant change for the entire global system. Preferably, this global change integrator would vary slowly and would take into account many of the causes of climate change, with a relatively large signal-to-noise ratio. Such an integrator could be monitored, and abrupt or accelerated changes could serve as an early warning signal for policy makers and the public. Earlier work has suggested that temperature has much less short-term and small-scale noise in the lower stratosphere, and thus the global warming signal at that level might be more easily deconvoluted, because the cooling rate near the 200-mb level is almost constant with latitude. A study of the temperature signal at this pressure level might show a clearer trend due to increased levels of greenhouse gases, but it would yield information about the troposphere only by inference

Thermal tolerance ranges and climate variability : A comparison between bivalves from differing climates

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Compton, Tanya J.; Rijkenberg, Micha J. A.; Drent, Jan; Piersma, Theunis

2007-01-01

The climate variability hypothesis proposes that in variable temperate climates poikilothermic animals have wide thermal tolerance windows, whereas in constant tropical climates they have small thermal tolerance windows. In this study we quantified and compared the upper and lower lethal thermal

Complex systems approach to fire dynamics and climate change impacts

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Pueyo, S.

2012-04-01

I present some recent advances in complex systems theory as a contribution to understanding fire regimes and forecasting their response to a changing climate, qualitatively and quantitatively. In many regions of the world, fire sizes have been found to follow, approximately, a power-law frequency distribution. As noted by several authors, this distribution also arises in the "forest fire" model used by physicists to study mechanisms that give rise to scale invariance (the power law is a scale-invariant distribution). However, this model does not give and does not pretend to give a realistic description of fire dynamics. For example, it gives no role to weather and climate. Pueyo (2007) developed a variant of the "forest fire" model that is also simple but attempts to be more realistic. It also results into a power law, but the parameters of this distribution change through time as a function of weather and climate. Pueyo (2007) observed similar patterns of response to weather in data from boreal forest fires, and used the fitted response functions to forecast fire size distributions in a possible climate change scenario, including the upper extreme of the distribution. For some parameter values, the model in Pueyo (2007) displays a qualitatively different behavior, consisting of simple percolation. In this case, fire is virtually absent, but megafires sweep through the ecosystem a soon as environmental forcings exceed a critical threshold. Evidence gathered by Pueyo et al. (2010) suggests that this is realistic for tropical rainforests (specifically, well-conserved upland rainforests). Some climate models suggest that major tropical rainforest regions are going to become hotter and drier if climate change goes ahead unchecked, which could cause such abrupt shifts. Not all fire regimes are well described by this model. Using data from a tropical savanna region, Pueyo et al. (2010) found that the dynamics in this area do not match its assumptions, even though fire

On the development of a coupled regional climate-vegetation model RCM-CLM-CN-DV and its validation in Tropical Africa

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Wang, Guiling; Yu, Miao; Pal, Jeremy S.; Mei, Rui; Bonan, Gordon B.; Levis, Samuel; Thornton, Peter E.

2016-01-01

This paper presents a regional climate system model RCM-CLM-CN-DV and its validation over Tropical Africa. The model development involves the initial coupling between the ICTP regional climate model RegCM4.3.4 (RCM) and the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) including models of carbon-nitrogen dynamics (CN) and vegetation dynamics (DV), and further improvements of the models. Model improvements derive from the new parameterization from CLM4.5 that addresses the well documented overestimation of gross primary production (GPP), a refinement of stress deciduous phenology scheme in CN that addresses a spurious LAI fluctuation for drought-deciduous plants, and the incorporation of a survival rule into the DV model to prevent tropical broadleaf evergreens trees from growing in areas with a prolonged drought season. The impact of the modifications on model results is documented based on numerical experiments using various subcomponents of the model. The performance of the coupled model is then validated against observational data based on three configurations with increasing capacity: RCM-CLM with prescribed leaf area index and fractional coverage of different plant functional types (PFTs); RCM-CLM-CN with prescribed PFTs coverage but prognostic plant phenology; RCM-CLM-CN-DV in which both the plant phenology and PFTs coverage are simulated by the model. Results from these three models are compared against the FLUXNET up-scaled GPP and ET data, LAI and PFT coverages from remote sensing data including MODIS and GIMMS, University of Delaware precipitation and temperature data, and surface radiation data from MVIRI and SRB. Our results indicate that the models perform well in reproducing the physical climate and surface radiative budgets in the domain of interest. However, PFTs coverage is significantly underestimated by the model over arid and semi-arid regions of Tropical Africa, caused by an underestimation of LAI in these regions by the CN model that gets exacerbated

Using Extreme Tropical Precipitation Statistics to Constrain Future Climate States

Science.gov (United States)

Igel, M.; Biello, J. A.

2017-12-01

Tropical precipitation is characterized by a rapid growth in mean intensity as the column humidity increases. This behavior is examined in both a cloud resolving model and with high-resolution observations of precipitation and column humidity from CloudSat and AIRS, respectively. The model and the observations exhibit remarkable consistency and suggest a new paradigm for extreme precipitation. We show that the total precipitation can be decomposed into a product of contributions from a mean intensity, a probability of precipitation, and a global PDF of column humidity values. We use the modeling and observational results to suggest simple, analytic forms for each of these functions. The analytic representations are then used to construct a simple expression for the global accumulated precipitation as a function of the parameters of each of the component functions. As the climate warms, extreme precipitation intensity and global precipitation are expected to increase, though at different rates. When these predictions are incorporated into the new analytic expression for total precipitation, predictions for changes due to global warming to the probability of precipitation and the PDF of column humidity can be made. We show that strong constraints can be imposed on the future shape of the PDF of column humidity but that only weak constraints can be set on the probability of precipitation. These are largely imposed by the intensification of extreme precipitation. This result suggests that understanding precisely how extreme precipitation responds to climate warming is critical to predicting other impactful properties of global hydrology. The new framework can also be used to confirm and discount existing theories for shifting precipitation.

The association between uterine leiomyoma and placenta abruption: A meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Jenabi, Ensiyeh; Ebrahimzadeh Zagami, Samira

2017-11-01

Some epidemiological studies have found that uterine leiomyoma can increase the risk of placenta abruption. To date, the meta-analysis has not been performed for assessing the relationship between uterine leiomyoma and placenta abruption. This meta-analysis was conducted to estimate the association between uterine leiomyoma and the risk of placenta abruption. A literature search was conducted out in major databases PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus from the earliest possible year to October 2016. The heterogeneity across studies was explored by Q-test and I 2 statistic. The publication bias was assessed by Begg's and Egger's tests. The results were showed using odds ratio (OR) estimate with its 95% confidence intervals (CI) using a random-effects model. The literature search included 953 articles until October 2016 with 232,024 participants. Based on OR estimates obtained from case-control and cohort studies, there was significant association between uterine leiomyoma and placenta abruption (2.63; 95% CI: 1.38, 3.88). We showed based on reports in observational studies that uterine leiomyoma is a risk factor for placenta abruption.

Evaluating climate model performance in the tropics with retrievals of water isotopic composition from Aura TES

Science.gov (United States)

Field, Robert; Kim, Daehyun; Kelley, Max; LeGrande, Allegra; Worden, John; Schmidt, Gavin

2014-05-01

Observational and theoretical arguments suggest that satellite retrievals of the stable isotope composition of water vapor could be useful for climate model evaluation. The isotopic composition of water vapor is controlled by the same processes that control water vapor amount, but the observed distribution of isotopic composition is distinct from amount itself . This is due to the fractionation that occurs between the abundant H216O isotopes (isotopologues) and the rare and heavy H218O and HDO isotopes during evaporation and condensation. The fractionation physics are much simpler than the underlying moist physics; discrepancies between observed and modeled isotopic fields are more likely due to problems in the latter. Isotopic measurements therefore have the potential for identifying problems that might not be apparent from more conventional measurements. Isotopic tracers have existed in climate models since the 1980s but it is only since the mid 2000s that there have been enough data for meaningful model evaluation in this sense, in the troposphere at least. We have evaluated the NASA GISS ModelE2 general circulation model over the tropics against water isotope (HDO/H2O) retrievals from the Aura Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES), alongside more conventional measurements. A small ensemble of experiments was performed with physics perturbations to the cumulus and planetary boundary layer schemes, done in the context of the normal model development process. We examined the degree to which model-data agreement could be used to constrain a select group of internal processes in the model, namely condensate evaporation, entrainment strength, and moist convective air mass flux. All are difficult to parameterize, but exert strong influence over model performance. We found that the water isotope composition was significantly more sensitive to physics changes than precipitation, temperature or relative humidity through the depth of the tropical troposphere. Among the

THERMAL PERFORMANCE OF ROOFTOP GREENERY SYSTEM AT THE TROPICAL CLIMATE OF MALAYSIA A case study of a 10 storied building R.C.C flat rooftop at UTM, Johor Bahru, Malaysia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rumana Rashid

2009-07-01

Full Text Available In tropical countries rooftop greenery is more sympathetic to the prevailing climate and provides comfortable indoor environment. This paper analyses the above hypothesis on a 10 storied residential apartments in Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM. The analysis of actual performance of the rooftop greenery can provide the information on effectiveness of its application on contemporary houses for tropical climate in Malaysia. Empirical studies have been performed an internal and external roof surface, where temperature and air temperature were measured for a period of three days in two phases. The first phase of measurement was carried out when the rooftop was empty. After the rooftop greenery was built then the second phase of measurement was conducted. Expected findings of the research are that the green rooftop will tend to experience lower surface temperature than the original exposed roof surface. So this research work will provide an introduction or preliminary guide line for thermally responsive architecture on the basis of thermal performance of the rooftop greenery system. Temperature is the main criteria of human comfort. To provide an indoor comfortable environment through the greening of the rooftop of the building is more appropriate in the tropical climate of Malaysia.

An international contrast of rates of placental abruption: an age-period-cohort analysis.

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Cande V Ananth

Full Text Available Although rare, placental abruption is implicated in disproportionately high rates of perinatal morbidity and mortality. Understanding geographic and temporal variations may provide insights into possible amenable factors of abruption. We examined abruption frequencies by maternal age, delivery year, and maternal birth cohorts over three decades across seven countries.Women that delivered in the US (n = 863,879; 1979-10, Canada (4 provinces, n = 5,407,463; 1982-11, Sweden (n = 3,266,742; 1978-10, Denmark (n = 1,773,895; 1978-08, Norway (n = 1,780,271, 1978-09, Finland (n = 1,411,867; 1987-10, and Spain (n = 6,151,508; 1999-12 were analyzed. Abruption diagnosis was based on ICD coding. Rates were modeled using Poisson regression within the framework of an age-period-cohort analysis, and multi-level models to examine the contribution of smoking in four countries.Abruption rates varied across the seven countries (3-10 per 1000, Maternal age showed a consistent J-shaped pattern with increased rates at the extremes of the age distribution. In comparison to births in 2000, births after 2000 in European countries had lower abruption rates; in the US there was an increase in rate up to 2000 and a plateau thereafter. No birth cohort effects were evident. Changes in smoking prevalence partially explained the period effect in the US (P = 0.01 and Sweden (P<0.01.There is a strong maternal age effect on abruption. While the abruption rate has plateaued since 2000 in the US, all other countries show declining rates. These findings suggest considerable variation in abruption frequencies across countries; differences in the distribution of risk factors, especially smoking, may help guide policy to reduce abruption rates.

Climate, ENSO and 'Black Swans' over the Last Millennium

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, L. G.; Mosley-Thompson, E.; Davis, M. E.; Kenny, D. V.; Lin, P. N.

2014-12-01

Tropical rainfall patterns influence the lives of billions of people both north and south of the Equator. Evidence of major ENSO events such as droughts is often recorded in the oxygen isotopic ratios and aerosol concentrations in tropical ice cores. Here we examine unusual events recorded in three ice cores, two (Quelccaya and Coropuna) in the Southern Hemisphere on the Peruvian Altiplano and the third (Dasuopu) located 22,000 km away on the southern edge of the Tibetan Plateau at the top of the Himalayas. These records suggest that the unique lower and middle tropospheric air flow over chloride (Cl-) and fluoride (F-) enriched areas upwind of the sites during ENSO events leads to enhanced deposition of these species on these glaciers. Linkages are demonstrated between ice-core chemistry and drought indicators, changes in lake levels, and ENSO and monsoon indices. Two unusual events, in the late 18th and mid-14th Centuries, are marked by abnormally high concentrations of F- and Cl- in at least two of the ice core records. All three records document a drought from 1789 to 1800 CE in which increases in these anionic concentrations reflect the abundance of continental atmospheric dust derived from arid regions upwind of the core sites. The earlier event, apparent only in the Quelccaya and Dasuopu ice cores, begins abruptly in 1343 and tapers off by 1375. The interaction between high frequency El Niños and low frequency shifts in the inter-tropical convergence zone may have resulted in these unusually severe and extended droughts. These "Black Swan" events correspond to historically documented, devastating population disruptions that were in part climate related. The 1789 to 1800 CE event was concurrent with the Doji Bara famine resulting from extended droughts that led to over 600,000 deaths in central India by 1792. Similarly extensive climate disruptions are documented in Central and South America. The mid-14th Century drought is concomitant with major monsoon

Are Mixed Tropical Tree Plantations More Resistant to Drought than Monocultures?

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Norbert Kunert

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Tropical tree plantations usually consist of a single exotic fast growing species, but recent research describes positive effects on ecosystem functions from mixed tropical tree plantations. In this review, we present the current knowledge of drought resistance of tropical mixed species plantations and summarize preliminary evidence from a tree biodiversity experiment in Panama. Converting mono-specific stands into mixed ones may improve stand stability and might reduce increasing abiotic and biotic disturbances due to climate change. However, little is known about the extent to which tropical tree species or tropical tree communities can resist increasing disturbances in the short term, e.g., water limitations due to increasing dry season intensity or length, or about their resilience after such disturbances and their capacity to adapt to changing conditions in the long term. Studies relating drought resistance and resilience to community diversity are missing. Further, we highlight the urgent need for a multifactorial manipulative throughfall reduction experiment in tropical environments. The outcome of such studies would greatly assist the forestry sector in tropical regions to maintain highly productive and ecologically sound forest plantations in a changing climate.

Phase Memory Preserving Harmonics from Abruptly Autofocusing Beams.

Science.gov (United States)

Koulouklidis, Anastasios D; Papazoglou, Dimitris G; Fedorov, Vladimir Yu; Tzortzakis, Stelios

2017-12-01

We demonstrate both theoretically and experimentally that the harmonics from abruptly autofocusing ring-Airy beams present a surprising property: They preserve the phase distribution of the fundamental beam. Consequently, this "phase memory" imparts to the harmonics the abrupt autofocusing behavior, while, under certain conditions, their foci coincide in space with the one of the fundamental. Experiments agree well with our theoretical estimates and detailed numerical calculations. Our findings open the way for the use of such beams and their harmonics in strong field science.

Vegetation-climate feedback causes reduced precipitation and tropical rainforest cover in CMIP5 regional Earth system model simulation over Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, M.; Smith, B.; Samuelsson, P.; Rummukainen, M.; Schurgers, G.

2012-12-01

We applied a coupled regional climate-vegetation model, RCA-GUESS (Smith et al. 2011), over the CORDEX Africa domain, forced by boundary conditions from a CanESM2 CMIP5 simulation under the RCP8.5 future climate scenario. The simulations were from 1961 to 2100 and covered the African continent at a horizontal grid spacing of 0.44°. RCA-GUESS simulates changes in the phenology, productivity, relative cover and population structure of up to eight plant function types (PFTs) in response to forcing from the climate part of the model. These vegetation changes feed back to simulated climate through dynamic adjustments in surface energy fluxes and surface properties. Changes in the net ecosystem-atmosphere carbon flux and its components net primary production (NPP), heterotrophic respiration and emissions from biomass burning were also simulated but do not feed back to climate in our model. Constant land cover was assumed. We compared simulations with and without vegetation feedback switched "on" to assess the influence of vegetation-climate feedback on simulated climate, vegetation and ecosystem carbon cycling. Both positive and negative warming feedbacks were identified in different parts of Africa. In the Sahel savannah zone near 15°N, reduced vegetation cover and productivity, and mortality caused by a deterioration of soil water conditions led to a positive warming feedback mediated by decreased evapotranspiration and increased sensible heat flux between vegetation and the atmosphere. In the equatorial rainforest stronghold region of central Africa, a feedback syndrome characterised by reduced plant production and LAI, a dominance shift from tropical trees to grasses, reduced soil water and reduced rainfall was identified. The likely underlying mechanism was a decline in evaporative water recycling associated with sparser vegetation cover, reminiscent of Earth system model studies in which a similar feedback mechanism was simulated to force dieback of tropical

Tropical Indo-Pacific hydroclimate response to North Atlantic forcing during the last deglaciation as recorded by a speleothem from Sumatra, Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Wurtzel, Jennifer B.; Abram, Nerilie J.; Lewis, Sophie C.; Bajo, Petra; Hellstrom, John C.; Troitzsch, Ulrike; Heslop, David

2018-06-01

Abrupt changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation are known to have affected the strength of the Indian and Asian Monsoons during glacial and deglacial climate states. However, there is still much uncertainty around the hydroclimate response of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) region to abrupt climate changes in the North Atlantic. Many studies suggest a mean southward shift in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in the IPWP region during phases of reduced Atlantic meridional overturning, however, existing proxies have seasonal biases and conflicting responses, making it difficult to determine the true extent of North Atlantic forcing in this climatically important region. Here we present a precisely-dated, high-resolution record of eastern Indian Ocean hydroclimate variability spanning the last 16 ky (thousand years) from δ18O measurements in an aragonite-calcite speleothem from central Sumatra. This represents the western-most speleothem record from the IPWP region. Precipitation arrives year-round at this site, with the majority sourced from the local tropical eastern Indian Ocean and two additional long-range seasonal sources associated with the boreal and austral summer monsoons. The Sumatran speleothem demonstrates a clear deglacial structure that includes 18O enrichment during the Younger Dryas and 18O depletion during the Bølling-Allerød, similar to the pattern seen in speleothems of the Asian and Indian monsoon realms. The speleothem δ18O changes at this site are best explained by changes in rainfall amount and changes in the contributions from different moisture pathways. Reduced rainfall in Sumatra during the Younger Dryas is most likely driven by reductions in moisture transport along the northern or southern monsoon transport pathways to Sumatra. Considered with other regional proxies, the record from Sumatra suggests the response of the IPWP to North Atlantic freshwater forcing is not solely driven by southward shifts of the

Invasion of the tropical earthworm Pontoscolex corethrurus (Rhinodrilidae, Oligochaeta in temperate grasslands

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Diana Ortiz-Gamino

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The tropical earthworm Pontoscolex corethrurus (Rhinodrilidae, Oligochaeta presents a broad distribution (e.g., 56 countries from four continents. It is generally assumed that temperature appears to limit the success of tropical exotic species in temperate climates. However, the distribution range of this species could advance towards higher elevations (with lower temperatures where no tropical species currently occur. The aim of this study was to evaluate the soil and climatic variables that could be closely associated with the distribution of P. corethrurus in four sites along an altitudinal gradient in central Veracruz, Mexico. We predicted that the distribution of P. corethrurus would be more related to climate variables than edaphic parameters. Five sampling points (in the grassland were established at each of four sites along an altitudinal gradient: Laguna Verde (LV, La Concepción (LC, Naolinco (NA and Acatlán (AC at 11–55, 992–1,025, 1,550–1,619 y 1,772–1,800 masl, respectively. The climate ranged from tropical to temperate along the altitudinal gradient. Ten earthworm species (5 Neotropical, 4 Palearctic and 1 Nearctic were found along the gradient, belonging to three families (Rhinodrilidae, Megascolecide and Lumbricidae. Soil properties showed a significant association (positive for Ngrass, pH, permanent wilting point, organic matter and P; and negative for Total N, K and water-holding capacity with the abundance of the earthworm community. Also there seems to be a relationship between climate and earthworm distribution along the altitudinal gradient. P. corethrurus was recorded at tropical (LV and LC and temperate sites (NA along the altitudinal gradient. Our results reveal that soil fertility determines the abundance of earthworms and site (climate can act as a barrier to their migration. Further research is needed to determine the genetic structure and lineages of P. corethrurus along altitudinal gradients.

Climate Prediction Center - Global Tropical Hazards Assessment

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Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News Organization Search Go Search the CPC Go Climate Outlooks Climate & Weather Link El Niño/La Niña MJO Teleconnections AO NAO PNA AAO Blocking Storm Tracks Climate Glossary Outreach About Us Our Mission Who We Are

Mineralogic maturity of modern sand along a high-energy tropical coast: Baixada de Jacarepaguá, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Savage, K. M.; de Cesero, P.; Potter, P. E.

Quarts arenites overlying crystalline basement are fairly common in the geologic record. A modern analog is provided in coastal Brazil where a small tropical lowland is bordered by abrupt, Precambrian granitic and gneissic mountains of the Serra do Mar. Nine different sedimentary environments were sampled, 57 sands were studied petrographically, and 8 complete chemical analyses were made. Here, arkosic river sands pass seaward into well defined, quartz-rich, stranded beach ridges and pure quartz arenites of the modern beach and shelf. Strong inshore wave power combined with tropical weathering seem to be the principal factors for this change. Tropical weathering also converted surface samples of arkosic Pliocene fan deposits into residual quartz arenites. Implications for the paleotectonic and paleoclimatic interpretation of ancient sandstones are also discussed.

The role of tropical cyclones in precipitation over the tropical and subtropical North America

Science.gov (United States)

Dominguez, Christian; Magaña, Victor

2018-03-01

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are essential elements of the hydrological cycle in tropical and subtropical regions. In the present study, the contribution of TCs to seasonal precipitation around the tropical and subtropical North America is examined. When TC activity over the tropical eastern Pacific (TEP) or the Intra Americas Seas (IAS) is below (above-normal), regional precipitation may be below (above-normal). However, it is not only the number of TCs what may change seasonal precipitation, but the trajectory of the systems. TCs induce intense precipitation over continental regions if they are close enough to shorelines, for instance, if the TC center is located, on average, less than 500 km-distant from the coast. However, if TCs are more remote than this threshold distance, the chances of rain over continental regions decrease, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. In addition, a distant TC may induce subsidence or produce moisture divergence that inhibits, at least for a few days, convective activity farther away than the threshold distance. An analysis of interannual variability in the TCs that produce precipitation over the tropical and subtropical North America shows that some regions in northern Mexico, which mostly depend on this effect to undergo wet years, may experience seasonal negative anomalies in precipitation if TCs trajectories are remote. Therefore, TCs (activity and trajectories) are important modulators of climate variability on various time scales, either by producing intense rainfall or by inhibiting convection at distant regions from their trajectory. The impact of such variations on water availability in northern Mexico may be relevant, since water availability in dams recovers under the effects of TC rainfall. Seasonal precipitation forecasts or climate change scenarios for these regions should take into account the effect of TCs, if regional adaptation strategies are implemented.

Current status of tropical fruit breeding and genetics for three tropical fruit species cultivated in Japan: pineapple, mango, and papaya

Science.gov (United States)

Ogata, Tatsushi; Yamanaka, Shinsuke; Shoda, Moriyuki; Urasaki, Naoya; Yamamoto, Toshiya

2016-01-01

Tropical fruit crops are predominantly produced in tropical and subtropical developing countries, but some are now grown in southern Japan. Pineapple (Ananas comosus), mango (Mangifera indica) and papaya (Carica papaya) are major tropical fruits cultivated in Japan. Modern, well-organized breeding systems have not yet been developed for most tropical fruit species. Most parts of Japan are in the temperate climate zone, but some southern areas such as the Ryukyu Islands, which stretch from Kyushu to Taiwan, are at the northern limits for tropical fruit production without artificial heating. In this review, we describe the current status of tropical fruit breeding, genetics, genomics, and biotechnology of three main tropical fruits (pineapple, mango, and papaya) that are cultivated and consumed in Japan. More than ten new elite cultivars of pineapple have been released with improved fruit quality and suitability for consumption as fresh fruit. New challenges and perspectives for obtaining high fruit quality are discussed in the context of breeding programs for pineapple. PMID:27069392

Tropical influence on boreal summer mid-latitude stationary waves

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Douville, Herve [Meteo-France/CNRM-GAME, Toulouse (France); CNRM/GMGEC/VDR, Toulouse (France); Bielli, S.; Deque, M.; Tyteca, S.; Voldoire, A. [Meteo-France/CNRM-GAME, Toulouse (France); Cassou, C. [CNRS-Cerfacs, Toulouse (France); Hall, N.M.J. [CNES/LEGOS, Toulouse (France)

2011-11-15

While organized tropical convection is a well-known source of extratropical planetary waves, state-of-the-art climate models still show serious deficiencies in simulating accurately the atmospheric response to tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and the associated teleconnections. In the present study, the remote influence of the tropical atmospheric circulation is evaluated in ensembles of global boreal summer simulations in which the Arpege-Climat atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) is nudged towards 6-h reanalyses. The nudging is applied either in the whole tropical band or in a regional summer monsoon domain. Sensitivity tests to the experimental design are first conducted using prescribed climatological SST. They show that the tropical relaxation does not improve the zonal mean extratropical climatology but does lead to a significantly improved representation of the mid-latitude stationary waves in both hemispheres. Low-pass filtering of the relaxation fields has no major effect on the model response, suggesting that high-frequency tropical variability is not responsible for extratropical biases. Dividing the nudging strength by a factor 10 only decreases the magnitude of the response. Model errors in each monsoon domain contribute to deficiencies in the model's mid-latitude climatology, although an exaggerated large-scale subsidence in the central equatorial Pacific appears as the main source of errors for the representation of stationary waves in the Arpege-Climat model. Case studies are then conducted using either climatological or observed SST. The focus is first on summer 2003 characterized by a strong and persistent anticyclonic anomaly over western Europe. This pattern is more realistic in nudging experiments than in simulations only driven by observed SST, especially when the nudging domain is centred over Central America. Other case studies also show a significant tropical forcing of the summer mid-latitude stationary waves

The medium precipitation in Colombia by the light of the observations, the climatic simulation and the tropical medium circulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Montoya Gaviria, Gerardo de Jesus; Eslava R, Jesus Antonio; Pabon Caicedo, Jose Daniel

2001-01-01

An analysis of the physical mechanisms governing the annual precipitation cycle formation over the Colombian territory is made. This analysis is carried out using climate simulations, means Reanalysis values and is supported by the existing theory about the mean tropical circulation. Some results are: Judging by the wind discontinuity; the Inter tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is fractionated over the South American Continent and remains all the year in the northern hemisphere in both oceans: Pacific and Atlantic. The low pressure system which forms in middle latitudes over the South American Continent during the Austral summer, deep penetrates onto tropical latitudes where, probably merges with the equatorial low of this season. There is a strong influence of the north eastern trades over the north eastern region of South America specially from December to February. As these winds enter onto the South American Continent, they associate with a current, does not yet mentioned in the existing literature, witch bounds the eastern side of the Andes and deep penetrates until middle latitudes in South America during this season. It is confirmed by the Reanalysis that seasonal migration of the ITCZ over Colombia may be used to explain the annual cycle precipitation formation over the most Colombia Territory. The results of this study are useful to have a more precise understanding of the tropical circulation over the Colombia Territory and can also be used in meteorological a hydrological modelling validation studies

Drastic shifts in the Levant hydroclimate during the last interglacial indicate changes in the tropical climate and winter storm tracks

Science.gov (United States)

Kiro, Y.; Goldstein, S. L.; Kushnir, Y.; Lazar, B.; Stein, M.

2017-12-01

Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e was a warm interglacial with where with significantly varying insolation and hence varied significantly throughout this time suggesting highly variable climate. The ICDP Dead Sea Deep Drilling Project recovered a 460m record of the past 220ka, reflecting the variable climate along MIS 5e. This time interval is reflected by alternating halite and detritus sequences, including 20m of halite-free detritus during the peak insolation at 125 ka. The Dead Sea salt budget indicates that the Levant climate was extremely arid when halite formed, reaching 20% of the present runoff. The halite-free detritus layer reflects increased precipitation to levels similar to present day, assuming similar spatial and temporal rainfall patterns. However, the 234U/238U activity ratio in the lake, reflected by authigenic minerals (aragonite, gypsum and halite), shifts from values of 1.5 (reflecting the Jordan River, the present main water source) down to 1.3 at 125-122ka during the MIS5e insolation peak and 1.0 at 118-116ka. The low 234U/238U reflects increased flash floods and eastern water sources (234U/238U 1.05-1.2) from the drier part of the watershed in the desert belt. The intermediate 234U/238U of 1.3 suggests that the Jordan River, fed from Mediterranean-sourced storm tracks, continued to flow along with an increase in southern and eastern water sources. NCAR CCSM3 climate model runs for 125ka indicate increases in both Summer and Winter precipitation. The drastic decrease to 234U/238U 1.0 occurs during the driest period, indicating a near shutdown of Jordan River flow, and water input only through flash floods and southern and eastern sources. The 120ka climate model runs shows a decrease in Winter and increase in Fall precipitation as a result of an increased precipitation in the tropics. The extreme aridity, associated with increased flooding is similar to patterns expected due to future warming. The increase in aridity is the result of expansion

Greenland climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Masson-Delmotte, Valérie; Swingedouw, Didier; Landais, Amaëlle

2012-01-01

Climate archives available from deep-sea and marine shelf sediments, glaciers, lakes and ice cores in and around Greenland allow us to place the current trends in regional climate, ice sheet dynamics, and land surface changes in a broader perspective. We show that during the last decade (2000s......), atmospheric and sea-surface temperatures are reaching levels last encountered millennia ago when northern high latitude summer insolation was higher due to a different orbital configuration. Concurrently, records from lake sediments in southern Greenland document major environmental and climatic conditions...... regional climate and ice sheet dynamics. The magnitude and rate of future changes in Greenland temperature, in response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, may be faster than any past abrupt events occurring under interglacial conditions. Projections indicate that within one century Greenland may...

Early-life exposure to climate change impairs tropical shark survival.

Science.gov (United States)

Rosa, Rui; Baptista, Miguel; Lopes, Vanessa M; Pegado, Maria Rita; Paula, José Ricardo; Trübenbach, Katja; Leal, Miguel Costa; Calado, Ricardo; Repolho, Tiago

2014-10-22

Sharks are one of the most threatened groups of marine animals worldwide, mostly owing to overfishing and habitat degradation/loss. Although these cartilaginous fish have evolved to fill many ecological niches across a wide range of habitats, they have limited capability to rapidly adapt to human-induced changes in their environments. Contrary to global warming, ocean acidification was not considered as a direct climate-related threat to sharks. Here we show, for the first time, that an early ontogenetic acclimation process of a tropical shark (Chiloscyllium punctatum) to the projected scenarios of ocean acidification (ΔpH = 0.5) and warming (+4°C; 30°C) for 2100 elicited significant impairments on juvenile shark condition and survival. The mortality of shark embryos at the present-day thermal scenarios was 0% both at normocapnic and hypercapnic conditions. Yet routine metabolic rates (RMRs) were significantly affected by temperature, pH and embryonic stage. Immediately after hatching, the Fulton condition of juvenile bamboo sharks was significantly different in individuals that experienced future warming and hypercapnia; 30 days after hatching, survival rapidly declined in individuals experiencing both ocean warming and acidification (up to 44%). The RMR of juvenile sharks was also significantly affected by temperature and pH. The impact of low pH on ventilation rates was significant only under the higher thermal scenario. This study highlights the need of experimental-based risk assessments of sharks to climate change. In other words, it is critical to directly assess risk and vulnerability of sharks to ocean acidification and warming, and such effort can ultimately help managers and policy-makers to take proactive measures targeting most endangered species. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Tropical pyomyositis: imaging findings and a review of the literature

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pretorius, E.S.; Hruban, R.H.; Fishman, E.K.

1996-01-01

Tropical pyomyositis is a rare cause of multiple abscesses of skeletal muscle. The entity is rare in temperate climates and, as its name suggests, is more common in areas such as the tropics and South Pacific. Staphylococcus aureus is the most common cause of infection. Therapy is aggressive, with surgical debridement and drainage followed by antibiotics. We report an unusual case of tropical myositis which simulated tumor recurrence in a patient without the typical risk factors associated with tropical pyomyositis. (orig.). With 3 figs

Tropical pyomyositis: imaging findings and a review of the literature

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pretorius, E.S. [Russell H. Morgan Department of Radiology and Radiological Sciences, The Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions, 600 N. Wolfe Street, Baltimore, MD 21287 (United States); Hruban, R.H. [Department of Pathology, The Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions, Baltimore, Maryland (United States); Fishman, E.K. [Russell H. Morgan Department of Radiology and Radiological Sciences, The Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions, 600 N. Wolfe Street, Baltimore, MD 21287 (United States)

1996-08-01

Tropical pyomyositis is a rare cause of multiple abscesses of skeletal muscle. The entity is rare in temperate climates and, as its name suggests, is more common in areas such as the tropics and South Pacific. Staphylococcus aureus is the most common cause of infection. Therapy is aggressive, with surgical debridement and drainage followed by antibiotics. We report an unusual case of tropical myositis which simulated tumor recurrence in a patient without the typical risk factors associated with tropical pyomyositis. (orig.). With 3 figs.

Clearing the Way for Reducing Emissions from Tropical Deforestation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Skutsch, Margaret; Bird, N.; Trines, E.; Dutschke, M.; Frumhoff, P.; de Jong, B.H.J.; van Laake, P.E.; Masera, O.; Murdiyarso, D.

2007-01-01

Carbon emissions from tropical deforestation account for about 25% of all anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions but cannot be credited under current climate change agreements. In the discussions around the architecture of the post-2012 climate regime, the possibility of including credits for

Self-reported smoking habits and serum cotinine levels in women with placental abruption.

Science.gov (United States)

Tikkanen, Minna; Surcel, Heljä-Marja; Bloigu, Aini; Nuutila, Mika; Ylikorkala, Olavi; Hiilesmaa, Vilho; Paavonen, Jorma

2010-12-01

smoking is an important risk factor for placental abruption with strong dose-dependency. Pregnant smokers often underreport tobacco use which can be objectively assessed by measuring serum cotinine levels. We examined the accuracy between self-reported smoking habits and early pregnancy serum cotinine levels in women with or without placental abruption. retrospective case-control study. university Hospital. a total of 175 women with placental abruption and 370 control women. serum samples collected during the first trimester were analyzed for serum cotinine levels. Cotinine concentration over 15 ng/ml was considered as the cutoff indicating active smoking. Smoking habits of the women and their partners were recorded at the same visit. placental abruption. of the cases of women with placental abruption, 27.4% reported smoking compared with 14.3% of the controls (p smoked daily correlated well with the cotinine levels (r = 0.68, p smoking habits correlate well with serum cotinine levels in Finland. Therefore, self-reported smoking can be considered as a risk marker for placental abruption.

Holocene Glacier Fluctuations in the Peruvian Andes Indicate Northern Climate Linkages

Science.gov (United States)

Licciardi, Joseph M.; Schaefer, Joerg M.; Taggart, Jean R.; Lund, David C.

2009-09-01

The role of the tropics in triggering, transmitting, and amplifying interhemispheric climate signals remains a key debate in paleoclimatology. Tropical glacier fluctuations provide important insight on regional paleoclimatic trends and forcings, but robust chronologies are scarce. Here, we report precise moraine ages from the Cordillera Vilcabamba (13°20‧S) of southern Peru that indicate prominent glacial events and associated climatic shifts in the outer tropics during the early Holocene and late in the “Little Ice Age” period. Our glacier chronologies differ from the New Zealand record but are broadly correlative with well-dated glacial records in Europe, suggesting climate linkages between the tropics and the North Atlantic region.

Tropical Ocean Evaporation/SST Sensitivity and It's Link to Water and Energy Budget Variations During ENSO

Science.gov (United States)

Robertson, Franklin R.; Marshall, Susan; Oglesby, Robert; Roads, John; Sohn, Byung-Ju; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The continuing debate over feedback mechanisms governing tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and tropical climate in general has highlighted the diversity of potential checks and balances within the climate system. Competing feedbacks due to changes in surface evaporation, water vapor, and cloud long- and shortwave radiative properties each may serve critical roles in stabilizing or destabilizing the climate system. It is also intriguing that even those climate variations having origins internal to the climate system - changes in ocean heat transport for example, apparently require complementary equilibrating effects by changes in atmospheric energy fluxes. Perhaps the best observational evidence of this is the relatively invariant nature of tropically averaged net radiation exiting the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) as measured by broadband satellite sensors over the past two decades. Thus, analyzing how these feedback mechanisms are operating within the context of current interannual variability may offer considerable insight for anticipating future climate change. In this paper we focus primarily on interannual variations of ocean evaporative fluxes and their significance for coupled water and energy cycles within the tropical climate system. In particular, we use both the da Silva estimates of surface fluxes (based on the Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set, COADS) and numerical simulations from several global climate models to examine evaporation sensitivity to perturbations in SST associated with warm and cold ENSO events. The specific questions we address are as follows: (1) What recurring patterns of surface wind and humidity anomalies are present during ENSO and how do they combine to yield systematic evaporation anomalies?, (2) What is the resulting tropical ocean mean evaporation-SST sensitivity associated with this climate perturbation?, and (3) What role does this evaporation play in tropical heat and water balance over tropical oceanic regions? We

Rapid climate variability during warm and cold periods in polar regions and Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Masson-Delmotte, V.; Landais, A.; Combourieu-Nebout, N.

2005-01-01

Typical rapid climate events punctuating the last glacial period in Greenland, Europe and Antarctica are compared to two rapid events occurring under warmer conditions: (i) Dansgaard-Oeschger event 25, the first abrupt warming occurring during last glacial inception; (ii) 8.2 ka BP event, the only...... rapid cooling recorded during the Holocene in Greenland ice cores and in Ammersee, Germany. The rate of warming during previous warmer interglacial periods is estimated from polar ice cores to 1.5 °C per millennium, without abrupt changes. Climate change expected for the 21st century should however...

Climate engineering and the risk of rapid climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ross, Andrew; Damon Matthews, H

2009-01-01

Recent research has highlighted risks associated with the use of climate engineering as a method of stabilizing global temperatures, including the possibility of rapid climate warming in the case of abrupt removal of engineered radiative forcing. In this study, we have used a simple climate model to estimate the likely range of temperature changes associated with implementation and removal of climate engineering. In the absence of climate engineering, maximum annual rates of warming ranged from 0.015 to 0.07 deg. C/year, depending on the model's climate sensitivity. Climate engineering resulted in much higher rates of warming, with the temperature change in the year following the removal of climate engineering ranging from 0.13 to 0.76 deg. C. High rates of temperature change were sustained for two decades following the removal of climate engineering; rates of change of 0.5 (0.3,0.1) deg. C/decade were exceeded over a 20 year period with 15% (75%, 100%) likelihood. Many ecosystems could be negatively affected by these rates of temperature change; our results suggest that climate engineering in the absence of deep emissions cuts could arguably constitute increased risk of dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system under the criteria laid out in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Chemically abrupt interface between Ce oxide and Fe films

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, H.G.; Lee, D.; Kim, S.; Kim, S.G.; Hwang, Chanyong

2005-01-01

A chemically abrupt Fe/Ce oxide interface can be formed by initial oxidation of an Fe film followed by deposition of Ce metal. Once a Ce oxide layer is formed on top of Fe, it acts a passivation barrier for oxygen diffusion. Further deposition of Ce metal followed by its oxidation preserve the abrupt interface between Ce oxide and Fe films. The Fe and Ce oxidation states have been monitored at each stage using X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy

Diatom community response to climate variability over the past 37,000 years in the sub-tropics of the Southern Hemisphere

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hembrow, Sarah C., E-mail: sarah.hembrow@scu.edu.au [School of Environment, Science and Engineering, Southern Cross University, Lismore, NSW 2480 (Australia); Taffs, Kathryn H. [School of Environment, Science and Engineering, Southern Cross University, Lismore, NSW 2480 (Australia); Atahan, Pia [Institute for Environmental Research, Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation, Kirrawee, NSW 2232 (Australia); Parr, Jeff [School of Environment, Science and Engineering, Southern Cross University, Lismore, NSW 2480 (Australia); Zawadzki, Atun; Heijnis, Henk [Institute for Environmental Research, Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation, Kirrawee, NSW 2232 (Australia)

2014-01-01

Climate change is impacting global surface water resources, increasing the need for a deeper understanding of the interaction between climate and biological diversity. This is particularly the case in the Southern Hemisphere sub-tropics, where little information exists on the aquatic biota response to climate variations. Palaeolimnological techniques, in particular the use of diatoms, are well established and can significantly contribute to the understanding of climatic variability and the impacts that change in climate have on aquatic ecosystems. A sediment core from Lake McKenzie, Fraser Island (Australia), was used to investigate interactions between climate influences and aquatic ecosystems. This study utilises a combination of proxies including biological (diatom), geochemical and chronological techniques to investigate long-term aquatic changes within the perched-dune lake. A combination of {sup 210}Pb and AMS {sup 14}C dates showed that the retrieved sediment represented a history of ca. 37,000 cal. yBP. The sedimentation rate in Lake McKenzie is very low, ranging on average from 0.11 mm to 0.26 mm per year. A sediment hiatus was observed between ca. 18,300 and 14,000 cal. yBP suggesting a period of dry conditions at the site. The diatom record shows little variability over the period of record, with benthic, freshwater acidic tolerant species dominating. Relative abundance of planktonic species and geochemical results indicates a period of increased water depth and lake productivity in the early Holocene and a gradual decrease in effective precipitation throughout the Holocene. Results from this study not only support earlier work conducted on Fraser Island using pollen reconstructions but also demonstrate that diatom community diversity has been relatively consistent throughout the Holocene and late Pleistocene with only minor cyclical fluctuation evident. This record is consistent with the few other aquatic palaeoecological records from the Southern

Diatom community response to climate variability over the past 37,000 years in the sub-tropics of the Southern Hemisphere

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hembrow, Sarah C.; Taffs, Kathryn H.; Atahan, Pia; Parr, Jeff; Zawadzki, Atun; Heijnis, Henk

2014-01-01

Climate change is impacting global surface water resources, increasing the need for a deeper understanding of the interaction between climate and biological diversity. This is particularly the case in the Southern Hemisphere sub-tropics, where little information exists on the aquatic biota response to climate variations. Palaeolimnological techniques, in particular the use of diatoms, are well established and can significantly contribute to the understanding of climatic variability and the impacts that change in climate have on aquatic ecosystems. A sediment core from Lake McKenzie, Fraser Island (Australia), was used to investigate interactions between climate influences and aquatic ecosystems. This study utilises a combination of proxies including biological (diatom), geochemical and chronological techniques to investigate long-term aquatic changes within the perched-dune lake. A combination of 210 Pb and AMS 14 C dates showed that the retrieved sediment represented a history of ca. 37,000 cal. yBP. The sedimentation rate in Lake McKenzie is very low, ranging on average from 0.11 mm to 0.26 mm per year. A sediment hiatus was observed between ca. 18,300 and 14,000 cal. yBP suggesting a period of dry conditions at the site. The diatom record shows little variability over the period of record, with benthic, freshwater acidic tolerant species dominating. Relative abundance of planktonic species and geochemical results indicates a period of increased water depth and lake productivity in the early Holocene and a gradual decrease in effective precipitation throughout the Holocene. Results from this study not only support earlier work conducted on Fraser Island using pollen reconstructions but also demonstrate that diatom community diversity has been relatively consistent throughout the Holocene and late Pleistocene with only minor cyclical fluctuation evident. This record is consistent with the few other aquatic palaeoecological records from the Southern Hemisphere sub-tropics

Seasonal variation in the incidence of preeclampsia and eclampsia in tropical climatic conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Subramaniam Vidya

2007-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Observational studies have demonstrated various correlations between hypertensive disorders of pregnancy and different weather parameters. We aim to study if a correlation exists between the incidence of eclampsia and pre-eclampsia and various weather parameters in the tropical coastal city of Mumbai which has the distinction of having relatively uniform meteorological variables all throughout the year, except for the monsoon season. Methods We retrospectively analysed data from a large maternity centre in Mumbai, India over a period of 36 months from March 1993 to February 1996, recording the incidence of preeclampsia and eclampsia. Meteorological data was acquired from the regional meteorological centre recording the monthly average temperature, humidity, barometric pressure and rainfall during the study period. Study period was then divided into two climate conditions: monsoon season (June to August and dry season September to May. The incidence of preeclampsia and eclampsia and the meteorological differences between the two seasons were compared. Results Over a 36-month period, a total of 29562 deliveries were recorded, of which 1238 patients developed preeclampsia (4.18% and 34 developed eclampsia (0.11%. The incidence of preeclampsia did not differ between the monsoon and the dry season (4.3% vs. 4.15%, p = 0.5. The incidence of eclampsia was significantly higher in the monsoon (0.2% vs. 0.08%, p = 0.01. The monsoon was significantly cooler (median maximum temperature 30.7°C vs. 32.3°C, p = 0.01, more humid (median relative humidity 85% vs. 70%, p = 0.0008, and received higher rainfall (median 504.9 mm vs. 0.3 mm, p = 0.0002 than the rest of the year. The median barometric pressure (1005 mb during the monsoon season was significantly lower than the rest of the year (1012 mb, p Conclusion In the tropical climate of Mumbai, the incidence of eclampsia is significantly higher in monsoon, when the weather is cooler and

Promoting the confluence of tropical cyclone research.

Science.gov (United States)

Marler, Thomas E

2015-01-01

Contributions of biologists to tropical cyclone research may improve by integrating concepts from other disciplines. Employing accumulated cyclone energy into protocols may foster greater integration of ecology and meteorology research. Considering experienced ecosystems as antifragile instead of just resilient may improve cross-referencing among ecological and social scientists. Quantifying ecosystem capital as distinct from ecosystem services may improve integration of tropical cyclone ecology research into the expansive global climate change research community.

On the use of nudging techniques for regional climate modeling: application for tropical convection

Science.gov (United States)

Pohl, Benjamin; Crétat, Julien

2014-09-01

Using a large set of WRF ensemble simulations at 70-km horizontal resolution over a domain encompassing the Warm Pool region and its surroundings [45°N-45°S, 10°E-240°E], this study aims at quantifying how nudging techniques can modify the simulation of deep atmospheric convection. Both seasonal mean climate, transient variability at intraseasonal timescales, and the respective weight of internal (stochastic) and forced (reproducible) variability are considered. Sensitivity to a large variety of nudging settings (nudged variables and layers and nudging strength) and to the model physics (using 3 convective parameterizations) is addressed. Integrations are carried out during a 7-month season characterized by neutral background conditions and strong intraseasonal variability. Results show that (1) the model responds differently to the nudging from one parameterization to another. Biases are decreased by ~50 % for Betts-Miller-Janjic convection against 17 % only for Grell-Dévényi, the scheme producing yet the largest biases; (2) relaxing air temperature is the most efficient way to reduce biases, while nudging the wind increases most co-variability with daily observations; (3) the model's internal variability is drastically reduced and mostly depends on the nudging strength and nudged variables; (4) interrupting the relaxation before the end of the simulations leads to an abrupt convergence towards the model's natural solution, with no clear effects on the simulated climate after a few days. The usefulness and limitations of the approach are finally discussed through the example of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, that the model fails at simulating and that can be artificially and still imperfectly reproduced in relaxation experiments.

Coupled nutrient cycling determines tropical forest trajectory under elevated CO2.

Science.gov (United States)

Bouskill, N.; Zhu, Q.; Riley, W. J.

2017-12-01

Tropical forests have a disproportionate capacity to affect Earth's climate relative to their areal extent. Despite covering just 12 % of land surface, tropical forests account for 35 % of global net primary productivity and are among the most significant of terrestrial carbon stores. As atmospheric CO2 concentrations increase over the next century, the capacity of tropical forests to assimilate and sequester anthropogenic CO2 depends on limitation by multiple factors, including the availability of soil nutrients. Phosphorus availability has been considered to be the primary factor limiting metabolic processes within tropical forests. However, recent evidence points towards strong spatial and temporal co-limitation of tropical forests by both nitrogen and phosphorus. Here, we use the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) Land Model (ALMv1-ECA-CNP) to examine how nutrient cycles interact and affect the trajectory of the tropical forest carbon sink under, (i) external nutrient input, (ii) climate (iii) elevated CO2, and (iv) a combination of 1-3. ALMv1 includes recent theoretical advances in representing belowground competition between roots, microbes and minerals for N and P uptake, explicit interactions between the nitrogen and phosphorus cycles (e.g., phosphatase production and nitrogen fixation), the dynamic internal allocation of plant N and P resources, and the integration of global datasets of plant physiological traits. We report nutrient fertilization (N, P, N+P) predictions for four sites in the tropics (El Verde, Puerto Rico, Barro Colorado Island, Panama, Manaus, Brazil and the Osa Peninsula, Coast Rica) to short-term nutrient fertilization (N, P, N+P), and benchmarking of the model against a meta-analysis of forest fertilization experiments. Subsequent simulations focus on the interaction of the carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus cycles across the tropics with a focus on the implications of coupled nutrient cycling and the fate of the tropical

Freezing temperatures as a limit to forest recruitment above tropical Andean treelines.

Science.gov (United States)

Rehm, Evan M; Feeley, Kenneth J

2015-07-01

The elevation of altitudinal treelines is generally believed to occur where low mean temperatures during the growing season limit growth and prevent trees from establishing at higher elevations. Accordingly, treelines should move upslope with increasing global temperatures. Contrary to this prediction, tropical treelines have remained stable over the past several decades despite increasing mean temperatures. The observed stability of tropical treelines, coupled with the drastically different temperature profiles between temperate and tropical treelines, suggests that using mean measures of temperature to predict tropical treeline movements during climate change may be overly simplistic. We hypothesize that frost events at tropical treelines may slow climate driven treeline movement by preventing tree recruitment beyond the established forest canopy. To assess this hypothesis, we measured freezing resistance of four canopy-forming treeline species (Weinmannia fagaroides, Polylepis pauta, Clethra cuneata, and Gynoxys nitida) at two life stages (juvenile and adult) and during two seasons (warm-wet and cold-dry). Freezing resistances were then compared to microclimatic data to determine if freezing events in the grassland matrix above treeline are too harsh for these forest species. Freezing resistance varied among species and life stages from -5.7 degrees C for juveniles of P. pauta to -11.1 degrees C for juveniles of W. fagaroides. Over a four-year period, the lowest temperatures recorded at 10 cm above ground level in the grasslands above treeline and at treeline itself were -8.9 degrees C and -6.8 degrees C, respectively. Juveniles maintained freezing resistances similar to adults during the coldest parts of the year and ontogenetic differences in freezing resistance were only present during the warm season when temperatures did not represent a significant threat to active plant tissue. These findings support the hypothesis that rare extreme freezing events at and

The Southern Oscillation in a coupled GCM: Implications for climate sensitivity and climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meehl, G.A.

1990-01-01

Results are presented from a global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation climate model developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The atmospheric part of the coupled model is a global spectral (R15, 4.5 degree latitude by 7.5 degree longitude, 9 layers in the vertical) general circulation model. The ocean is coarse-grid (5 degree latitude by 5 degree longitude, 4 layers in the vertical) global general circulation model. The coupled model includes a simple thermodynamic sea-ice model. Due mainly to inherent limitations in the ocean model, the coupled model simulates sea surface temperatures that are too low in the tropics and too high in the extratropics in the mean. In spite of these limitations, the coupled model simulates active interannual variability of the global climate system involving signals in the tropical Pacific that resemble, in some respects, the observed Southern Oscillation. These signals in the tropics are associated with teleconnections to the extratropics of both hemispheres. The implications of this model-simulated interannual variability of the coupled system relating to climate sensitivity and climate change due to an increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide are discussed

The Southern Oscillation in a coupled GCM: Implications for climate sensitivity and climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meehl, G.A.

1991-01-01

Results are presented from a global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation climate model developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The atmospheric part of the coupled model is a global spectral (R15, 4.5 degree latitude by 7.5 degree longitude, 9 layers in the vertical) general circulation model. The ocean is coarse-grid (5 degree latitude by 5 degree longitude, 4 layers in the vertical) global general circulation model. The coupled model includes a simple thermodynamic sea-ice model. Due mainly to inherent limitations in the ocean model, the coupled model simulates sea surface temperatures that are too low in the tropics and too high in the extratropics in the mean. In spite of these limitations, the coupled model simulates active interannual variability of the global climate system involving signals in the tropical Pacific that resemble, in some respects, the observed Southern Oscillation. These signals in the tropics are associated with teleconnections to the extratropics of both hemispheres. The implications of this model-simulated interannual variability of the coupled system relating to climate sensitivity and climate change due to an increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide are discussed. 25 refs.; 9 figs

An international contrast of rates of placental abruption: an age-period-cohort analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Ananth, Cande V; Keyes, Katherine M; Hamilton, Ava; Gissler, Mika; Wu, Chunsen; Liu, Shiliang; Luque-Fernandez, Miguel Angel; Skjærven, Rolv; Williams, Michelle A; Tikkanen, Minna; Cnattingius, Sven

2015-01-01

Although rare, placental abruption is implicated in disproportionately high rates of perinatal morbidity and mortality. Understanding geographic and temporal variations may provide insights into possible amenable factors of abruption. We examined abruption frequencies by maternal age, delivery year, and maternal birth cohorts over three decades across seven countries. Women that delivered in the US (n = 863,879; 1979-10), Canada (4 provinces, n = 5,407,463; 1982-11), Sweden (n = 3,266,742; 1978-10), Denmark (n = 1,773,895; 1978-08), Norway (n = 1,780,271, 1978-09), Finland (n = 1,411,867; 1987-10), and Spain (n = 6,151,508; 1999-12) were analyzed. Abruption diagnosis was based on ICD coding. Rates were modeled using Poisson regression within the framework of an age-period-cohort analysis, and multi-level models to examine the contribution of smoking in four countries. Abruption rates varied across the seven countries (3-10 per 1000), Maternal age showed a consistent J-shaped pattern with increased rates at the extremes of the age distribution. In comparison to births in 2000, births after 2000 in European countries had lower abruption rates; in the US there was an increase in rate up to 2000 and a plateau thereafter. No birth cohort effects were evident. Changes in smoking prevalence partially explained the period effect in the US (P = 0.01) and Sweden (Prate has plateaued since 2000 in the US, all other countries show declining rates. These findings suggest considerable variation in abruption frequencies across countries; differences in the distribution of risk factors, especially smoking, may help guide policy to reduce abruption rates.

Towards Greenland Glaciation: cumulative or abrupt transition?

Science.gov (United States)

Ramstein, Gilles; Tan, Ning; Ladant, Jean-baptiste; Dumas, Christophe; Contoux, Camille

2017-04-01

During the mid-Pliocene warming period (3-3.3 Ma BP), the global annual mean temperatures inferred by data and model studies were 2-3° warmer than pre-industrial values. Accordingly, Greenland ice sheet volume is supposed to reach at the most, only half of that of present-day [Haywood et al. 2010]. Around 2.7-2.6 Ma BP, just ˜ 500 kyr after the warming peak of mid-Pliocene, the Greenland ice sheet has reached its full size [Lunt et al. 2008]. A crucial question concerns the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet from half to full size during the 3 - 2.5 Ma period. Data show a decreasing trend of atmospheric CO2 concentration from 3 Ma to 2.5 Ma [Seki et al.2010; Bartoli et al. 2011; Martinez et al. 2015]. However, a recent study [Contoux et al. 2015] suggests that a lowering of CO2 is not sufficient to initiate a perennial glaciation on Greenland and must be combined with low summer insolation to preserve the ice sheet during insolation maxima. This suggests rather a cumulative process than an abrupt event. In order to diagnose the evolution of the ice sheet build-up, we carry on, for the first time, a transient simulation of climate and ice sheet evolutions from 3 Ma to 2.5 Ma. This strategy enables us to investigate the waxing and waning of the ice sheet during several orbital cycles. We use a tri-dimensional interpolation method designed by Ladant et al. (2014), which allows the evolution of CO2 concentration and of orbital parameters, and the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet size to be taken into account. By interpolating climatic snapshot simulations ran with various possible combinations of CO2, orbits and ice sheet sizes, we can build a continuous climatic forcing that is then used to provide 500 kyrs-long ice sheet simulations. With such a tool, we may offer a physically based answer to different CO2 reconstructions scenarios and analyse which one is the most consistent with Greenland ice sheet buildup.

Effects of Atlantic warm pool variability over climate of South America tropical transition zone

Science.gov (United States)

Ricaurte Villota, Constanza; Romero-Rodríguez, Deisy; Andrés Ordoñez-Zuñiga, Silvio; Murcia-Riaño, Magnolia; Coca-Domínguez, Oswaldo

2016-04-01

Colombia is located in the northwestern corner of South America in a climatically complex region due to the influence processes modulators of climate both the Pacific and Atlantic region, becoming in a transition zone between phenomena of northern and southern hemisphere. Variations in the climatic conditions of this region, especially rainfall, have been attributed to the influence of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but little is known about the interaction within Atlantic Ocean and specifically Caribbean Sea with the environmental conditions of this region. In this work We studied the influence of the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP) on the Colombian Caribbean (CC) climate using data of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) between 1900 - 2014 from ERSST V4, compared with in situ data SIMAC (National System for Coral Reef Monitoring in Colombia - INVEMAR), rainfall between 1953-2013 of meteorological stations located at main airports in the Colombian Caribbean zone, administered by IDEAM, and winds data between 2003 - 2014 from WindSat sensor. The parameters analyzed showed spatial differences throughout the study area. SST anomalies, representing the variability of the AWP, showed to be associated with Multidecadal Atlantic Oscillation (AMO) and with the index of sea surface temperature of the North-tropical Atlantic (NTA), the variations was on 3 to 5 years on the ENSO scale and of approximately 11 years possibly related to solar cycles. Rainfall anomalies in the central and northern CC respond to changes in SST, while in the south zone these are not fully engage and show a high relationship with the ENSO. Finally, the winds also respond to changes in SST and showed a signal approximately 90 days possibly related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation, whose intensity depends on the CC region being analyzed. The results confirm that region is a transition zone in which operate several forcing, the variability of climate conditions is difficult to attribute only one, as ENSO

The LMDZ4 general circulation model: climate performance and sensitivity to parametrized physics with emphasis on tropical convection

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hourdin, Frederic; Musat, Ionela; Bony, Sandrine; Codron, Francis; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Fairhead, Laurent; Grandpeix, Jean-Yves; LeVan, Phu; Li, Zhao-Xin; Lott, Francois [CNRS/UPMC, Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (LMD/IPSL), Paris Cedex 05 (France); Braconnot, Pascale; Friedlingstein, Pierre [Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement (LSCE/IPSL), Saclay (France); Filiberti, Marie-Angele [Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), Paris (France); Krinner, Gerhard [Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Geophysique de l' Environnement, Grenoble (France)

2006-12-15

The LMDZ4 general circulation model is the atmospheric component of the IPSL-CM4 coupled model which has been used to perform climate change simulations for the 4th IPCC assessment report. The main aspects of the model climatology (forced by observed sea surface temperature) are documented here, as well as the major improvements with respect to the previous versions, which mainly come form the parametrization of tropical convection. A methodology is proposed to help analyse the sensitivity of the tropical Hadley-Walker circulation to the parametrization of cumulus convection and clouds. The tropical circulation is characterized using scalar potentials associated with the horizontal wind and horizontal transport of geopotential (the Laplacian of which is proportional to the total vertical momentum in the atmospheric column). The effect of parametrized physics is analysed in a regime sorted framework using the vertical velocity at 500 hPa as a proxy for large scale vertical motion. Compared to Tiedtke's convection scheme, used in previous versions, the Emanuel's scheme improves the representation of the Hadley-Walker circulation, with a relatively stronger and deeper large scale vertical ascent over tropical continents, and suppresses the marked patterns of concentrated rainfall over oceans. Thanks to the regime sorted analyses, these differences are attributed to intrinsic differences in the vertical distribution of convective heating, and to the lack of self-inhibition by precipitating downdraughts in Tiedtke's parametrization. Both the convection and cloud schemes are shown to control the relative importance of large scale convection over land and ocean, an important point for the behaviour of the coupled model. (orig.)

Carbon geopolitics. International climate action and the problem of tropical deforestation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ehrenstein, Vera

2014-01-01

The thesis explores the components of concerted action at an international scale by focusing on how the problem of CO_2 emissions attributed to tropical deforestation is handled in climate change negotiations. The constraint faced by actors is as follows: interventions led by a diversity of actors across the world need to be coordinated, in the pursuit of an objective agreed by all states represented at the United Nations whose sovereignty must be respected. Such process builds on operations that can be analyzed from the viewpoint of carbon geopolitics. Some of these operations are related to the spatial extension and the liberal and quantified dimensions of the enterprise. Decision-making at an international level must be organized, comparable carbon measurement methods must be created and incentive-based redistribution systems must be designed. Other operations are specific to the entities concerned by the treated phenomenon, so-called developing countries. The weakness of their technical equipment must be acknowledged, so-called bad governance in their administrations must be dealt with and their civil society must be listened to. The approach developed here is grounded in science and technology studies, a domain that has recently focused on the construction of markets and decision-making. Based on a multi-site investigation, the thesis examines a set of problems characteristic of concerted action at an international scale: international decision-making, project-based action, countries' preparation, the valuation of correct measures, trust-making in economic relationships and the production of consensus. It proposes to call international adjustment the tentative and fragile process through which the interest for climate protection of an international collective is maintained. (author) [fr

Temperature Response in Hardened Concrete Subjected to Tropical Rainforest Environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. I. Egba

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to characterize concrete micro-environment temperature response to the natural climate of the tropical rainforest. The peculiar warmth, high humidity, and low pressure nature of the tropical rainforest necessitated the present study. Temperature probes were inserted into concrete specimens subjected to the sheltered and unsheltered environment to measure the micro-environment temperature of the concrete, and study the hysteresis characteristics in relation to the climate temperature. Some mathematical relationships for forecasting the internal temperature of concrete in the tropical rainforest environment were proposed and tested. The proposed relationships were found reliable. It was observed that the micro-environment temperature was lower at the crest, and higher at the trough than the climate environment temperature with a temperature difference of 1-3 oC. Also, temperature response in concrete for the unsheltered micro-environment was 1.85 times faster than the response in the sheltered micro-environment. The findings of the study may be used to assist the durability assessment of concrete.

Predicting the long-term durability of hemp–lime renders in inland and coastal areas using Mediterranean, Tropical and Semi-arid climatic simulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arizzi, Anna; Viles, Heather; Martín-Sanchez, Inés; Cultrone, Giuseppe

2016-01-01

Hemp-based composites are eco-friendly building materials as they improve energy efficiency in buildings and entail low waste production and pollutant emissions during their manufacturing process. Nevertheless, the organic nature of hemp enhances the bio-receptivity of the material, with likely negative consequences for its long-term performance in the building. The main purpose of this study was to study the response at macro- and micro-scale of hemp–lime renders subjected to weathering simulations in an environmental cabinet (one year was condensed in twelve days), so as to predict their long-term durability in coastal and inland areas with Mediterranean, Tropical and Semi-arid climates, also in relation with the lime type used. The simulated climatic conditions caused almost unnoticeable mass, volume and colour changes in hemp–lime renders. No efflorescence or physical breakdown was detected in samples subjected to NaCl, because the salt mainly precipitates on the surface of samples and is washed away by the rain. Although there was no visible microbial colonisation, alkaliphilic fungi (mainly Penicillium and Aspergillus) and bacteria (mainly Bacillus and Micrococcus) were isolated in all samples. Microbial growth and diversification were higher under Tropical climate, due to heavier rainfall. The influence of the bacterial activity on the hardening of samples has also been discussed here and related with the formation and stabilisation of vaterite in hemp–lime mixes. This study has demonstrated that hemp–lime renders show good durability towards a wide range of environmental conditions and factors. However, it might be useful to take some specific preventive and maintenance measures to reduce the bio-receptivity of this material, thus ensuring a longer durability on site. - Highlights: • Realistic simulations in the cabinet of one-year exposure to environmental conditions • Influence of the lime type on the durability of hemp–lime renders �

Predicting the long-term durability of hemp–lime renders in inland and coastal areas using Mediterranean, Tropical and Semi-arid climatic simulations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Arizzi, Anna, E-mail: anna.arizzi@ouce.ox.ac.uk [School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Dyson Perrins Building, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY (United Kingdom); Viles, Heather [School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Dyson Perrins Building, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY (United Kingdom); Martín-Sanchez, Inés [Departamento de Microbiología, Universidad de Granada, Avda. Fuentenueva s/n, 18002 Granada (Spain); Cultrone, Giuseppe [Departamento de Mineralogía y Petrología, Universidad de Granada, Avda. Fuentenueva s/n, 18002 Granada (Spain)

2016-01-15

Hemp-based composites are eco-friendly building materials as they improve energy efficiency in buildings and entail low waste production and pollutant emissions during their manufacturing process. Nevertheless, the organic nature of hemp enhances the bio-receptivity of the material, with likely negative consequences for its long-term performance in the building. The main purpose of this study was to study the response at macro- and micro-scale of hemp–lime renders subjected to weathering simulations in an environmental cabinet (one year was condensed in twelve days), so as to predict their long-term durability in coastal and inland areas with Mediterranean, Tropical and Semi-arid climates, also in relation with the lime type used. The simulated climatic conditions caused almost unnoticeable mass, volume and colour changes in hemp–lime renders. No efflorescence or physical breakdown was detected in samples subjected to NaCl, because the salt mainly precipitates on the surface of samples and is washed away by the rain. Although there was no visible microbial colonisation, alkaliphilic fungi (mainly Penicillium and Aspergillus) and bacteria (mainly Bacillus and Micrococcus) were isolated in all samples. Microbial growth and diversification were higher under Tropical climate, due to heavier rainfall. The influence of the bacterial activity on the hardening of samples has also been discussed here and related with the formation and stabilisation of vaterite in hemp–lime mixes. This study has demonstrated that hemp–lime renders show good durability towards a wide range of environmental conditions and factors. However, it might be useful to take some specific preventive and maintenance measures to reduce the bio-receptivity of this material, thus ensuring a longer durability on site. - Highlights: • Realistic simulations in the cabinet of one-year exposure to environmental conditions • Influence of the lime type on the durability of hemp–lime renders �

Abrupt category shifts during real-time person perception.

Science.gov (United States)

Freeman, Jonathan B

2014-02-01

Previous studies have suggested that real-time person perception relies on continuous competition, in which partially active categories smoothly compete over time. Here, two studies demonstrated the involvement of a different kind of competition. In Study 1, before participants selected the correct sex category for morphed faces, their mouse trajectories often exhibited a continuous attraction toward the incorrect category that increased with sex-category ambiguity, indicating continuous competition. On other trials, however, trajectories initially pursued the incorrect category and then abruptly redirected toward the correct category, suggesting early incorrect category activation that was rapidly reversed later in processing. These abrupt category reversals also increased with ambiguity. In Study 2, participants were presented with faces containing a sex-typical or sex-atypical hair cue, in a context in which the norm was either sex-typical targets (normative context) or sex-atypical targets (counternormative context). Sex-atypical targets induced greater competition in the normative context, but sex-typical targets induced greater competition in the counternormative context. Together, these results demonstrate that categorizing others involves both smooth competition and abrupt category shifts, and that these flexibly adapt to the social context.

Indian Ocean warming modulates Pacific climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Jing-Jia; Sasaki, Wataru; Masumoto, Yukio

2012-01-01

It has been widely believed that the tropical Pacific trade winds weakened in the last century and would further decrease under a warmer climate in the 21st century. Recent high-quality observations, however, suggest that the tropical Pacific winds have actually strengthened in the past two decades. Precise causes of the recent Pacific climate shift are uncertain. Here we explore how the enhanced tropical Indian Ocean warming in recent decades favors stronger trade winds in the western Pacific via the atmosphere and hence is likely to have contributed to the La Niña-like state (with enhanced east–west Walker circulation) through the Pacific ocean–atmosphere interactions. Further analysis, based on 163 climate model simulations with centennial historical and projected external radiative forcing, suggests that the Indian Ocean warming relative to the Pacific’s could play an important role in modulating the Pacific climate changes in the 20th and 21st centuries. PMID:23112174

Indian Ocean warming modulates Pacific climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Jing-Jia; Sasaki, Wataru; Masumoto, Yukio

2012-11-13

It has been widely believed that the tropical Pacific trade winds weakened in the last century and would further decrease under a warmer climate in the 21st century. Recent high-quality observations, however, suggest that the tropical Pacific winds have actually strengthened in the past two decades. Precise causes of the recent Pacific climate shift are uncertain. Here we explore how the enhanced tropical Indian Ocean warming in recent decades favors stronger trade winds in the western Pacific via the atmosphere and hence is likely to have contributed to the La Niña-like state (with enhanced east-west Walker circulation) through the Pacific ocean-atmosphere interactions. Further analysis, based on 163 climate model simulations with centennial historical and projected external radiative forcing, suggests that the Indian Ocean warming relative to the Pacific's could play an important role in modulating the Pacific climate changes in the 20th and 21st centuries.

Monitoring temporal Vegetation changes in Lao tropical forests

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Phompila, Chittana; Lewis, Megan; Clarke, Kenneth; Ostendorf, Bertram

2014-01-01

Studies on changes in vegetation are essential for understanding the interaction between humans and the environment. These studies provide key information for land use assessment, terrestrial ecosystem monitoring, carbon flux modelling and impacts of global climate change. The primary purpose of this study was to detect temporal vegetation changes in tropical forests in the southern part of Lao PDR from 2001-2012. The study investigated the annual vegetation phenological response of dominant land cover types across the study area and relationships to seasonal precipitation and temperature. Improved understanding of intra-annual patterns of vegetation variation was useful to detect longer term changes in vegetation. The breaks for additive season and trend (BFAST) approach was implemented to detect changes in these land cover types throughout the 2001-2012 period. We used the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) (MOD13Q1 products) and monthly rainfall and temperature data obtained from the Meteorology and Hydrology Department, Ministry of Agriculture-Forestry, published by Lao National Statistical Centre in this research. EVI well documented the annual seasonal growth of vegetation and clearly distinguished the characteristic phenology of four different land use types; native forest, plantation, agriculture and mixed wooded/cleared area. Native forests maintained high EVI throughout the year, while plantations, wooded/cleared areas and agriculture showed greater inter-annual variation, with minimum EVI at the end of the dry season in April and maximum EVI in September-October, around two months after the wet season peak in rainfall. The BFAST analysis detected abrupt temporal changes in vegetation in the tropical forests, especially in a large conversion of mixed wooded/cleared area into plantation. Within the study area from 2001-2012 there has been an overall decreasing trend of vegetation cover for

Impact of bio-physical feedbacks on the tropical climate in coupled and uncoupled GCMs

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Seo, Hyodae; Bader, Jürgen

2014-10-01

The bio-physical feedback process between the marine ecosystem and the tropical climate system is investigated using both an ocean circulation model and a fully-coupled ocean-atmosphere circulation model, which interact with a biogeochemical model. We found that the presence of chlorophyll can have significant impact on the characteristics of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), including its amplitude and asymmetry, as well as on the mean state. That is, chlorophyll generally increases mean sea surface temperature (SST) due to the direct biological heating. However, SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific decreases due to the stronger indirect dynamical response to the biological effects outweighing the direct thermal response. It is demonstrated that this biologically-induced SST cooling is intensified and conveyed to other tropical-ocean basins when atmosphere-ocean coupling is taken into account. It is also found that the presence of chlorophyll affects the magnitude of ENSO by two different mechanisms; one is an amplifying effect by the mean chlorophyll, which is associated with shoaling of the mean thermocline depth, and the other is a damping effect derived from the interactively-varying chlorophyll coupled with the physical model. The atmosphere-ocean coupling reduces the biologically-induced ENSO amplifying effect through the weakening of atmospheric feedback. Lastly, there is also a biological impact on ENSO which enhances the positive skewness. This skewness change is presumably caused by the phase dependency of thermocline feedback which affects the ENSO magnitude.

An aftereffect of global warming on tropical Pacific decadal variability

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Jian; Liu, Qinyu; Wang, Chuanyang

2018-03-01

Studies have shown that global warming over the past six decades can weaken the tropical Pacific Walker circulation and maintain the positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Based on observations and model simulations, another aftereffect of global warming on IPO is found. After removing linear trends (global warming signals) from observations, however, the tropical Pacific climate still exhibited some obvious differences between two IPO negative phases. The boreal winter (DJF) equatorial central-eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) was colder during the 1999-2014 period (P2) than that during 1961-1976 (P1). This difference may have been a result of global warming nonlinear modulation of precipitation; i.e., in the climatological rainy region, the core area of the tropical Indo-western Pacific warm pool receives more precipitation through the "wet-get-wetter" mechanism. Positive precipitation anomalies in the warm pool during P2 are much stronger than those during P1, even after subtracting the linear trend. Corresponding to the differences of precipitation, the Pacific Walker circulation is stronger in P2 than in P1. Consequent easterly winds over the equatorial Pacific led to a colder equatorial eastern-central Pacific during P2. Therefore, tropical Pacific climate differences between the two negative IPO phases are aftereffects of global warming. These aftereffects are supported by the results of coupled climate model experiments, with and without global warming.

Wildland fire emissions, carbon, and climate: Science overview and knowledge needs

Science.gov (United States)

William T. Sommers; Rachel A. Loehman; Colin C. Hardy

2014-01-01

Wildland fires have influenced the global carbon cycle for 420 million years of Earth history, interacting with climate to define vegetation characteristics and distributions, trigger abrupt ecosystem shifts, and move carbon among terrestrial and atmospheric pools. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the dominant driver of ongoing climate change and the principal emissions...

Energy conservation measures in an institutional building in sub-tropical climate in Australia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rahman, M.M.; Rasul, M.G.; Khan, M.M.K.

2010-01-01

In this study, various energy conservation measures (ECMs) on heating, ventilating and air conditioning (HVAC) and lighting systems for a four-storied institutional building in sub-tropical (hot and humid climate) Queensland, Australia are evaluated using the simulation software called DesignBuilder (DB). Base case scenario of energy consumption profiles of existing systems are analysed and simulated first then, the simulated results are verified by on-site measured data. Three categories of ECMs, namely major investment ECMs (variable air volume (VAV) systems against constant air volume (CAV); and low coefficient of performance (COP) chillers against high COP chillers); minor investment ECMs (photo electric dimming control system against general lighting, and double glazed low emittance windows against single-glazed windows) and zero investment ECMs (reset heating and cooling set point temperatures) are evaluated. It is found that the building considered in this study can save up to 41.87% energy without compromising occupancies thermal comfort by implementing the above mentioned ECMs into the existing system.

Tropical Indian Ocean warming contributions to China winter climate trends since 1960

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Qigang; Yao, Yonghong; Liu, Shizuo; Cao, DanDan; Cheng, Luyao; Hu, Haibo; Sun, Leng; Yao, Ying; Yang, Zhiqi; Gao, Xuxu; Schroeder, Steven R.

2018-01-01

This study investigates observed and modeled contributions of global sea surface temperature (SST) to China winter climate trends in 1960-2014, including increased precipitation, warming through about 1997, and cooling since then. Observations and Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations with prescribed historical SST and sea ice show that tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) warming and increasing rainfall causes diabatic heating that generates a tropospheric wave train with anticyclonic 500-hPa height anomaly centers in the TIO or equatorial western Pacific (TIWP) and northeastern Eurasia (EA) and a cyclonic anomaly over China, referred to as the TIWP-EA wave train. The cyclonic anomaly causes Indochina moisture convergence and southwesterly moist flow that enhances South China precipitation, while the northern anticyclone enhances cold surges, sometimes causing severe ice storms. AMIP simulations show a 1960-1997 China cooling trend by simulating increasing instead of decreasing Arctic 500-hPa heights that move the northern anticyclone into Siberia, but enlarge the cyclonic anomaly so it still simulates realistic China precipitation trend patterns. A separate idealized TIO SST warming simulation simulates the TIWP-EA feature more realistically with correct precipitation patterns and supports the TIWP-EA teleconnection as the primary mechanism for long-term increasing precipitation in South China since 1960. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) experiments simulate a reduced TIO SST warming trend and weak precipitation trends, so the TIWP-EA feature is absent and strong drying is simulated in South China for 1960-1997. These simulations highlight the need for accurately modeled SST to correctly attribute regional climate trends.

Quantification and Mitigation of Long-Term Impacts of Urbanization and Climate Change in the Tropical Coastal City of San Juan, Puerto Rico

Science.gov (United States)

Comarazamy, Daniel; Gonzalez, Jorge E.; Luvall, Jeffrey C.

2014-01-01

Urbanization, along with other cases of land cover and land use changes, has significant climate impacts in tropical regions with the added complexity of occurring within the context of global warming. The individual and combined effects of these two factors on the surface energy balance of a tropical city are investigated by use of an integrated atmospheric modeling approach, taking the San Juan Metropolitan Area (SJMA), Puerto Rico as the test case. To achieve this goal, an ensemble of climate and weather simulations is performed, with the climate scenarios combining urban development and sprawl with regional climate change over the past 50 years, and the short-term simulations designed to test the sensitivity to different urban vegetation configurations as mitigating alternatives. As indicator of change, we use the thermal response number (TRN), which is a measure of the sensible heating to the thermal storage of a surface or region, and the Bowen ratio, which is defined as the ratio of sensible to latent heat fluxes. The TRN of the area occupied by the SJMA has decreased as a consequence of replacing the low land coastal plain vegetation with man made materials, indicating that it takes less energy to raise the surface temperature of the urban area, whereas the TRN of forested regions has remained virtually unchanged. The global warming signal also has effects on the thermal response of the SJMA, where dryer current conditions generate lower TRN values. Differences due to global warming are more evident in the Bowen ratio pattern, mostly associated with the drier present conditions observed and its effects on sensible and latent heat fluxes. In terms of testing different mitigation strategies, the short-term simulations show that the urban area is more efficient in partitioning surface energy balance terms when green roofs are specified, as opposed to including vegetation inside the urban core.

Ultra-wideband horn antenna with abrupt radiator

Science.gov (United States)

McEwan, Thomas E.

1998-01-01

An ultra-wideband horn antenna transmits and receives impulse waveforms for short-range radars and impulse time-of flight systems. The antenna reduces or eliminates various sources of close-in radar clutter, including pulse dispersion and ringing, sidelobe clutter, and feedline coupling into the antenna. Dispersion is minimized with an abrupt launch point radiator element; sidelobe and feedline coupling are minimized by recessing the radiator into a metallic horn. Low frequency cut-off associated with a horn is extended by configuring the radiator drive impedance to approach a short circuit at low frequencies. A tapered feed plate connects at one end to a feedline, and at the other end to a launcher plate which is mounted to an inside wall of the horn. The launcher plate and feed plate join at an abrupt edge which forms the single launch point of the antenna.

Pan-tropical monitoring of deforestation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Achard, F; DeFries, R; Eva, H; Hansen, M; Mayaux, P; Stibig, H-J

2007-01-01

This paper reviews the technical capabilities for monitoring deforestation from a pan-tropical perspective in response to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process, which is studying the technical issues surrounding the ability to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation in developing countries. The successful implementation of such policies requires effective forest monitoring systems that are reproducible, provide consistent results, meet standards for mapping accuracy, and can be implemented from national to pan-tropical levels. Remotely sensed data, supported by ground observations, are crucial to such efforts. Recent developments in global to regional monitoring of forests can contribute to reducing the uncertainties in estimates of emissions from deforestation. Monitoring systems at national levels in developing countries can also benefit from pan-tropical and regional observations, mainly by identifying hot spots of change and prioritizing areas for monitoring at finer spatial scales. A pan-tropical perspective is also required to ensure consistency between different national monitoring systems. Data sources already exist to determine baseline periods in the 1990s as historical reference points. Key requirements for implementing such monitoring programs, both at pan-tropical and at national scales, are international commitment of resources to increase capacity, coordination of observations to ensure pan-tropical coverage, access to free or low-cost data, and standardized, consensus protocols for data interpretation and analysis

Orographic effects on tropical climate in a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model

Science.gov (United States)

Okajima, Hideki

Large-scale mountain modifies the atmospheric circulation directly through dynamic and thermodynamic process, and also indirectly through the interaction with the ocean. To investigate orographic impacts on tropical climate, a fully coupled general circulation model (CGCM) is developed by coupling a state-of-the-art atmospheric general circulation model and an ocean general circulation model. With realistic boundary conditions, the CGCM produces a reasonable climatology of sea surface temperature (SST), surface winds, and precipitation. When global mountains are removed, the model climatology displays substantial changes in both the mean-state and the seasonal cycle. The equatorial eastern Pacific SST acquires a semi-annual component as inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) flips and flops across the equator following the seasonal migration of the sun. Without the Andes, wet air flows into the southeastern tropical Pacific from the humid Amazon, which weakens the meridional asymmetry during the Peruvian warm season (February-April). In addition, the northeasterly trade winds are enhanced north of the equator without the orographic blocking of Central American mountains and cools SST. Triggered by the SST cooling north and moistening south of the equator, the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback further weakens the meridional asymmetry and prolongs the southern ITCZ. In the Atlantic Ocean, the equatorial cold tongue is substantially strengthened and develops a pronounced annual cycle in the absence of mountains. The easterly winds are overall enhanced over the equatorial Atlantic without orographic heating over the African highlands, developing a zonal asymmetry strengthened by the Bjerknes feedback. In the Indian Ocean, the thermocline shoals eastward and an equatorial cold tongue appears twice a year. During boreal summer, the Findlater jet is greatly weakened off Somalia and SST warms in the western Indian Ocean, forcing the equatorial easterly winds amplified

Detecting mismatches in the phenology of cotton bollworm larvae and cotton flowering in response to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Jian; Hao, HongFei

2018-05-01

Current evidence suggests that climate change has directly affected the phenology of many invertebrate species associated with agriculture. Such changes in phenology have the potential to cause temporal mismatches between predators and prey and may lead to a disruption in natural pest control ecosystem. Understanding the synchrony between pest insects and host plant responses to climate change is a key step to improve integrated pest management strategies. Cotton bollworm larvae damage cotton, and thus, data from Magaiti County, China, collected during the period of 1990-2015 were analyzed to assess the effects of climate change on cotton bollworm larvae and cotton flowering. The results showed that a warming climate advanced the phenology of cotton bollworm larvae and cotton flowering. However, the phenological rate of change was faster in cotton bollworm larvae than that in cotton flowering, and the larval period was prolonged, resulting in a great increase of the larval population. The abrupt phenological changes in cotton bollworm larvae occurred earlier than that in cotton, and the abrupt phenological changes in cotton flowering occurred earlier than that in larval abundance. However, the timing of abrupt changes in larval abundance all occurred later than that in temperature. Thus, the abrupt changes that occurred in larvae, cotton flowering and climate were asynchronous. The interval days between the cotton flowering date (CFD) and the half-amount larvae date (HLD) expanded by 3.41 and 4.41 days with a 1 °C increase of T mean in May and June, respectively. The asynchrony between cotton bollworm larvae and cotton flowering will likely broaden as the climate changes. The effective temperature in March and April and the end date of larvae (ED) were the primary factors affecting asynchrony.

Detecting mismatches in the phenology of cotton bollworm larvae and cotton flowering in response to climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Jian; Hao, HongFei

2018-05-11

Current evidence suggests that climate change has directly affected the phenology of many invertebrate species associated with agriculture. Such changes in phenology have the potential to cause temporal mismatches between predators and prey and may lead to a disruption in natural pest control ecosystem. Understanding the synchrony between pest insects and host plant responses to climate change is a key step to improve integrated pest management strategies. Cotton bollworm larvae damage cotton, and thus, data from Magaiti County, China, collected during the period of 1990-2015 were analyzed to assess the effects of climate change on cotton bollworm larvae and cotton flowering. The results showed that a warming climate advanced the phenology of cotton bollworm larvae and cotton flowering. However, the phenological rate of change was faster in cotton bollworm larvae than that in cotton flowering, and the larval period was prolonged, resulting in a great increase of the larval population. The abrupt phenological changes in cotton bollworm larvae occurred earlier than that in cotton, and the abrupt phenological changes in cotton flowering occurred earlier than that in larval abundance. However, the timing of abrupt changes in larval abundance all occurred later than that in temperature. Thus, the abrupt changes that occurred in larvae, cotton flowering and climate were asynchronous. The interval days between the cotton flowering date (CFD) and the half-amount larvae date (HLD) expanded by 3.41 and 4.41 days with a 1 °C increase of T mean in May and June, respectively. The asynchrony between cotton bollworm larvae and cotton flowering will likely broaden as the climate changes. The effective temperature in March and April and the end date of larvae (ED) were the primary factors affecting asynchrony.

Simple physical-empirical model of the precipitation distribution based on a tropical sea surface temperature threshold and the effects of climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Jauregui, Yakelyn R.; Takahashi, Ken

2018-03-01

The observed nonlinear relationship between tropical sea surface temperature (T_s) and precipitation ( P) on climate timescales, by which a threshold (T_c) must be exceeded by T_s in order for deep convection to occur, is the basis of a physical-empirical model (PEM) that we fitted to observational data and CMIP5 climate model output and used to show that, with essentially only two constant parameters (T_c and the sensitivity a_1 of P to T_s>T_c), it provides a useful first-order description of the climatological and interannual variability of the large-scale distribution of tropical P given T_s, as well as of the biases of the Global Climate Models (GCMs). A substantial limitation is its underestimation of the peak P in the convergence zones, as the necessary processes associated with the atmospheric circulation are not considered. The pattern of the intermodel correlation between the mean T_s-T_c for each GCM and the average P distribution is in agreement with the double ITCZ bias, featuring roughly zonally-symmetric off-equatorial maxima, rather than being regionally or hemispherically restricted. The inter-comparison of GCMs indicates a relationship between T_c with the near-equatorial low-level (850 hPa) tropospheric temperature, consistent with the interpretation that it is a measure of the convective inhibition (CIN). The underestimation of T_c is linked to the cold free tropospheric bias in the GCMs. However, the discrepancy among the observational datasets is a limitation for assessing the GCM biases from the PEM framework quantitatively. Under the RCP4.5 climate change scenario, T_c increases slightly more than the mean tropical T_s, implying a stabilizing trend consistent with the amplified free tropospheric warming relative to the surface. However, since a_1 increases by 10-50%/°C with the surface warming, its effect dominates and results in generally positive precipitation change (Δ P) in the equatorial regions. In the equatorial eastern

Adapting Indian Agriculture to Global Climate Change

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Adapting Indian Agriculture to Global Climate Change · Climate Change: Generic Implications for Agriculture · Controlled environment facilities at IARI used for evaluating model performance in future climate change scenarios · Slide 4 · Slide 5 · Global studies indicate considerable impact of climate change in tropics.

Multidimensional remote sensing based mapping of tropical forests and their dynamics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dutrieux, L.P.

2016-01-01

Tropical forests concentrate a large part of the terrestrial biodiversity, provide important resources, and deliver many ecosystem services such as climate regulation, carbon sequestration, and hence climate change mitigation. While in the current context of anthropogenic pressure these forests

Rethinking species’ ability to cope with rapid climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hof, Christian; Levinsky, Irina; Bastos Araujo, Miguel

2011-01-01

Ongoing climate change is assumed to be exceptional because of its unprecedented velocity. However, new geophysical research suggests that dramatic climatic changes during the Late Pleistocene occurred extremely rapid, over just a few years. These abrupt climatic changes may have been even faster...... than contemporary ones, but relatively few continent-wide extinctions of species have been documented for these periods. This raises questions about the ability of extant species to adapt to ongoing climate change. We propose that the advances in geophysical research challenge current views about...... species' ability to cope with climate change, and that lessons must be learned for modelling future impacts of climate change on species....

Global situational awareness and early warning of high-consequence climate change.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Backus, George A.; Carr, Martin J.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick

2009-08-01

Global monitoring systems that have high spatial and temporal resolution, with long observational baselines, are needed to provide situational awareness of the Earth's climate system. Continuous monitoring is required for early warning of high-consequence climate change and to help anticipate and minimize the threat. Global climate has changed abruptly in the past and will almost certainly do so again, even in the absence of anthropogenic interference. It is possible that the Earth's climate could change dramatically and suddenly within a few years. An unexpected loss of climate stability would be equivalent to the failure of an engineered system on a grand scale, and would affect billions of people by causing agricultural, economic, and environmental collapses that would cascade throughout the world. The probability of such an abrupt change happening in the near future may be small, but it is nonzero. Because the consequences would be catastrophic, we argue that the problem should be treated with science-informed engineering conservatism, which focuses on various ways a system can fail and emphasizes inspection and early detection. Such an approach will require high-fidelity continuous global monitoring, informed by scientific modeling.

Lattice-work corridors for climate change: a conceptual framework for biodiversity conservation and social-ecological resilience in a tropical elevational gradient

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patricia A. Townsend

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Rapid climate change poses complex challenges for conservation, especially in tropical developing countries where biodiversity is high while financial and technical resources are limited. The complexity is heightened by uncertainty in predicted effects, both for ecological systems and human communities that depend heavily on natural resource extraction and use. Effective conservation plans and measures must be inexpensive, fast-acting, and able to increase the resilience of both the ecosystem and the social-ecological system. We present conservation practitioners with a framework that strategically integrates climate change planning into connectivity measures for tropical mountain ecosystems in Costa Rica. We propose a strategy for doubling the amount of habitat currently protected in riparian corridors using measures that are relatively low cost and fast-acting, and will employ and expand human capital. We argue that habitat connectivity must be enhanced along latitudinal gradients, but also within the same elevational bands, via a lattice-work corridor system. This is needed to facilitate range shifts for mobile species and evolutionary adaptation for less mobile species. We think that conservation measures within the elevational bands must include conservation-friendly land uses that improve current and future human livelihoods under dynamic conditions. Key components include community involvement, habitat priority-setting, forest landscape restoration, and environmental services payments. Our approach is fundamentally adaptive in that the conservation measures employed are informed by on-the-ground successes and failures and modified accordingly, but are relatively low risk and fast-acting. Our proposal, if implemented, would satisfy tenets of climate-smart conservation, improve the resilience of human and ecological communities, and be a model for other locations facing similar challenges.

Recurrent Placental Abruption with Methylenetetrahydrofolate Reductase C667t Heterozygosity: A Case Report

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ilgın Türkçüoğlu

2007-12-01

Risk of recurrence is high in patients with a history of placental abruption. Antenatal care and delivery after fetal lung maturation is advised since the perinatal mortality is high with placental abruption.

Tropical forests and the changing earth system.

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, Simon L

2006-01-29

Tropical forests are global epicentres of biodiversity and important modulators of the rate of climate change. Recent research on deforestation rates and ecological changes within intact forests, both areas of recent research and debate, are reviewed, and the implications for biodiversity (species loss) and climate change (via the global carbon cycle) addressed. Recent impacts have most likely been: (i) a large source of carbon to the atmosphere, and major loss of species, from deforestation and (ii) a large carbon sink within remaining intact forest, accompanied by accelerating forest dynamism and widespread biodiversity changes. Finally, I look to the future, suggesting that the current carbon sink in intact forests is unlikely to continue, and that the tropical forest biome may even become a large net source of carbon, via one or more of four plausible routes: changing photosynthesis and respiration rates, biodiversity changes in intact forest, widespread forest collapse via drought, and widespread forest collapse via fire. Each of these scenarios risks potentially dangerous positive feedbacks with the climate system that could dramatically accelerate and intensify climate change. Given that continued land-use change alone is already thought to be causing the sixth mass extinction event in Earth's history, should such feedbacks occur, the resulting biodiversity and societal consequences would be even more severe.

Bioclimatic influence of extension of white and black coat color on Holstein cows production in a hot tropical climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Manrique P, Luis Phanor

1999-01-01

Was determined the influence of the white and black hair coat percentage in Holstein cows managed under hot climate condition at the San Jose del Hato farm, located in Palmira, Cauca Valley, Colombia. Three categories or classes of hair score were established, according to the white color distribution and with three observers it was determined the relative frequency of cows within each color category; the productive data were studied through an Anova using the least squares means method and Ducan test for means separation. The results were in agreement with the effect of color categories in the 305 days of milk production and in the total milk production (p < 0.05), being the best producer the cows group with 40 - 60 % white hair coats. These results showed the influence of the hair coat surface over the productive capability of Holstein cattle for selection programs in tropical conditions of hot climates

Southern Ocean Convection and tropical telleconnections

Science.gov (United States)

Marinov, I.; Cabre, A.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2014-12-01

We show that Southern Ocean (SO) temperatures in the latest generation of Earth System Models exhibit two major modes of variation, one driven by deep convection, the other by tropical variability. We perform a CMIP5 model intercomparison to understand why different climate models represent SO variability so differently in long, control simulations. We show that multiyear variability in Southern Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) can in turn influence oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the tropics on short (atmospheric) time-scales. We argue that the strength and pattern of SO-tropical teleconnections depends on the intensity of SO deep convection. Periodic convection in the SO is a feature of most CMIP5 models under preindustrial forcing (deLavergne et al., 2014). Models show a wide distribution in the spatial extent, periodicity and intensity of their SO convection, with some models convecting most of the time, and some showing very little convection. In a highly convective coupled model, we find that multidecadal variability in SO and global SSTs, as well as SO heat storage are driven by Weddell Sea convective variability, with convective decades relatively warm due to the heat released from the deep southern ocean and non-convective decades cold due to the subsurface storage of heat. Furthermore, pulses of SO convection drive SST and sea ice variations, influencing absorbed shortwave and emitted longwave radiation, wind, cloud and precipitation patterns, with climatic implications for the low latitudes via fast atmospheric teleconnections. We suggest that these high-low latitude teleconnection mechanisms are relevant for understanding hiatus decades. Additionally, Southern Ocean deep convection varied significantly during past, natural climate changes such as during the last deglaciation. Weddell Sea open convection was recently weakened, likely as a consequence of anthropogenic forcing and the resulting surface freshening. Our study opens up the

Holocene megathermal abrupt environmental changes derived from {sup 14}C dating of a coral reef at Leizhou Peninsula, South China Sea

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shen Chengde; Yi Weixi E-mail: cdshen@gig.ac.cn; Yu Kefu; Sun Yanmin; Liu Tungsheng; Beer, J.; Hajdas, I.; Bonani, G

2004-08-01

A depth profile of a Goniopora coral reef at Leizhou Peninsula, South China Sea, was radiocarbon dated using liquid scintillation counting (LSC) and accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS). The time of formation, during 6600-7400 cal BP, can be divided into nine stages, each terminated by abrupt growth cessation of Goniopora and appearance of Ostrea shells. The results show that, during the Holocene megathermal (8.2-3.3 ka BP), large climatic changes have occurred in the South China Sea area.

Large temperature variability in the southern African tropics since the Last Glacial Maximum

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Powers, L.A.; Johnson, T.C.; Werne, J.P.; Castañeda, I.S.; Hopmans, E.; Sinninghe Damsté, J.S.; Schouten, S.

2005-01-01

The role of the tropics in global climate change is actively debated, particularly in regard to the timing and magnitude of thermal and hydrological response. Continuous, high-resolution temperature records through the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) from tropical oceans have provided much insight

Transient myocardial ischemia after abrupt withdrawal of antianginal therapy in chronic stable angina

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Egstrup, K

1988-01-01

In 47 patients with chronic stable angina and proven coronary artery disease, abrupt withdrawal of beta-adrenoceptor blocking agents either as monotherapy or in combination with calcium antagonists (group 1, n = 25) was compared with abrupt withdrawal of calcium antagonist monotherapy (group 2, n...... less than 0.05). These results indicate that a rebound increase in ischemic activity (mainly silent) occurs after abrupt withdrawal of beta-receptor blockade in patients with chronic stable angina. This increase in ischemic activity may be caused by increased myocardial oxygen demand....

Coherent tropical Indo-Pacific interannual climate variability

OpenAIRE

Wieners, C.E.; de Ruijter, W.P.M.; Ridderinkhof, W.; von der Heydt, A.S.; Dijkstra, H.A.

2016-01-01

A multichannel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) applied simultaneously to tropical sea surface temperature (SST), zonal wind, and burstiness (zonal wind variability) reveals three significant oscillatory modes. They all show a strong ENSO signal in the eastern Pacific Ocean (PO) but also a substantial SST signal in the western Indian Ocean (IO). A correlation-based analysis shows that the western IO signal contains linearly independent information on ENSO. Of the three Indo-Pacific ENSO mode...

Net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange in tropical rainforests - sensitivity to environmental drivers and flux measurement methodology

Science.gov (United States)

Fu, Z.; Stoy, P. C.

2017-12-01

Tropical rainforests play a central role in the Earth system services of carbon metabolism, climate regulation, biodiversity maintenance, and more. They are under threat by direct anthropogenic effects including deforestation and indirect anthropogenic effects including climate change. A synthesis of the factors that determine the net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide (NEE) across multiple time scales in different tropical rainforests has not been undertaken to date. Here, we study NEE and its components, gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (RE), across thirteen tropical rainforest research sites with 63 total site-years of eddy covariance data. Results reveal that the five ecosystems that have greater carbon uptakes (with the magnitude of GPP greater than 3000 g C m-2 y-1) sequester less carbon - or even lose it - on an annual basis at the ecosystem scale. This counterintuitive result is because high GPP is compensated by similar magnitudes of RE. Sites that provided subcanopy CO2 storage observations had higher average magnitudes of GPP and RE and consequently lower NEE, highlighting the importance of measurement methodology for understanding carbon dynamics in tropical rainforests. Vapor pressure deficit (VPD) constrained GPP at all sites, but to differing degrees. Many environmental variables are significantly related to NEE at time scales greater than one year, and NEE at a rainforest in Malaysia is significantly related to soil moisture variability at seasonal time scales. Climate projections from 13 general circulation models (CMIP5) under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 suggest that many current tropical rainforest sites on the cooler end of the current temperature range are likely to reach a climate space similar to present-day warmer sites by the year 2050, and warmer sites will reach a climate space not currently experienced. Results demonstrate the need to quantify if mature tropical trees acclimate to heat and