WorldWideScience

Sample records for abrupt climate-driven ecosystem

  1. Causes and projections of abrupt climate-driven ecosystem shifts in the North Atlantic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beaugrand, G.; Edwards, M.; Brander, Keith

    2008-01-01

    Warming of the global climate is now unequivocal and its impact on Earth' functional units has become more apparent. Here, we show that marine ecosystems are not equally sensitive to climate change and reveal a critical thermal boundary where a small increase in temperature triggers abrupt...... ecosystem shifts seen across multiple trophic levels. This large-scale boundary is located in regions where abrupt ecosystem shifts have been reported in the North Atlantic sector and thereby allows us to link these shifts by a global common phenomenon. We show that these changes alter the biodiversity...... and carrying capacity of ecosystems and may, combined with fishing, precipitate the reduction of some stocks of Atlantic cod already severely impacted by exploitation. These findings offer a way to anticipate major ecosystem changes and to propose adaptive strategies for marine exploited resources such as cod...

  2. Modelling marine community responses to climate-driven species redistribution to guide monitoring and adaptive ecosystem-based management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marzloff, Martin Pierre; Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Hamon, Katell G.; Hoshino, Eriko; Jennings, Sarah; Putten, Van Ingrid E.; Pecl, Gretta T.

    2016-01-01

    As a consequence of global climate-driven changes, marine ecosystems are experiencing polewards redistributions of species – or range shifts – across taxa and throughout latitudes worldwide. Research on these range shifts largely focuses on understanding and predicting changes in the distribution of

  3. Climate-driven shifts in continental net primary production implicated as a driver of a recent abrupt increase in the land carbon sink

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buermann, Wolfgang; Beaulieu, Claudie; Parida, Bikash; Medvigy, David; Collatz, George J.; Sheffield, Justin; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

    2016-03-01

    The world's ocean and land ecosystems act as sinks for anthropogenic CO2, and over the last half century their combined sink strength grew steadily with increasing CO2 emissions. Recent analyses of the global carbon budget, however, have uncovered an abrupt, substantial ( ˜ 1 PgC yr-1) and sustained increase in the land sink in the late 1980s whose origin remains unclear. In the absence of this prominent shift in the land sink, increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations since the late 1980s would have been ˜ 30 % larger than observed (or ˜ 12 ppm above current levels). Global data analyses are limited in regards to attributing causes to changes in the land sink because different regions are likely responding to different drivers. Here, we address this challenge by using terrestrial biosphere models constrained by observations to determine if there is independent evidence for the abrupt strengthening of the land sink. We find that net primary production significantly increased in the late 1980s (more so than heterotrophic respiration), consistent with the inferred increase in the global land sink, and that large-scale climate anomalies are responsible for this shift. We identify two key regions in which climatic constraints on plant growth have eased: northern Eurasia experienced warming, and northern Africa received increased precipitation. Whether these changes in continental climates are connected is uncertain, but North Atlantic climate variability is important. Our findings suggest that improved understanding of climate variability in the North Atlantic may be essential for more credible projections of the land sink under climate change.

  4. CLIMOOR. Climate driven changes in the functioning of heath and moorland ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beier, C. [ed.; Tietema, A.; Riis Nielsen, T.; Emmett, B.; Estiarte, M.; Penuelas, J.; Llorens Guash, L.; Williams, D.; Gordon, C.; Pugh, B.; Roda, F.; Gundersen, P.; Gorissen, A.

    2000-01-01

    Emission of green house gases, partly generated from human activities, reduces the loss of heat from the earth thereby potentially causing climate change. This change in climate has been predicted to result in a 1-3 deg. C increase in temperature with more vigorous rainstorms and prolonged drought periods in the coming 100 years. The consequence of such climatic changes for the terrestrial ecosystems are largely unknown. In order to improve our understanding of the ecosystem response to climate change and thereby to improve the basis for the international negotiations and political decisions to avoid or minimise climate change and its effects, a European research project CLIMOOR has been initiated. The project is a cross European research project involving 6 research groups from Denmark, the Netherlands, UK and Spain and is funded by EU and the participating institutions. The project investigates the potential effects of warming and drought on heath and moorland ecosystems at four European sites. The ecosystems are manipulated at field scale by reducing the heat loss at night by IR-reflective curtains and by removing the precipitation during a 2 month period in the summer. The effects of these manipulations on the plants and the soil are studied. This report describes the technique used to apply the climate change at field scale and presents some preliminary results after the first growing season. EU and the participating institutions fund CLIMOOR. (au)

  5. Climate-driven changes in the ecological stoichiometry of aquatic ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Waal, D.B.; Verschoor, A.M.; Verspagen, J.M.H.; van Donk, E.; Huisman, J.

    2010-01-01

    Advances in ecological stoichiometry, a rapidly expanding research field investigating the elemental composition of organisms and their environment, have shed new light on the impacts of climate change on freshwater and marine ecosystems. Current changes in the Earth's climate alter the availability

  6. Whitebark pine vulnerability to climate-driven mountain pine beetle disturbance in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Logan, Jesse A; MacFarlane, William W; Willcox, Louisa

    2010-06-01

    Widespread outbreaks of mountain pine beetles (MPB) are occurring throughout the range of this native insect. Episodic outbreaks are a common occurrence in the beetles' primary host, lodgepole pine. Current outbreaks, however, are occurring in habitats where outbreaks either did not previously occur or were limited in scale. Herein, we address widespread, ongoing outbreaks in high-elevation, whitebark pine forests of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, where, due to an inhospitable climate, past outbreaks were infrequent and short lived. We address the basic question: are these outbreaks truly unprecedented and a threat to ecosystem continuity? In order to evaluate this question we (1) present evidence that the current outbreak is outside the historic range of variability; (2) examine system resiliency to MPB disturbance based on adaptation to disturbance and host defenses to MPB attack; and (3) investigate the potential domain of attraction to large-scale MPB disturbance based on thermal developmental thresholds, spatial structure of forest types, and the confounding influence of an introduced pathogen. We conclude that the loss of dominant whitebark pine forests, and the ecological services they provide, is likely under continuing climate warming and that new research and strategies are needed to respond to the crisis facing whitebark pine.

  7. Climate-driven range shifts of the king penguin in a fragmented ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cristofari, Robin; Liu, Xiaoming; Bonadonna, Francesco; Cherel, Yves; Pistorius, Pierre; Le Maho, Yvon; Raybaud, Virginie; Stenseth, Nils Christian; Le Bohec, Céline; Trucchi, Emiliano

    2018-03-01

    Range shift is the primary short-term species response to rapid climate change, but it is often hampered by natural or anthropogenic habitat fragmentation. Different critical areas of a species' niche may be exposed to heterogeneous environmental changes and modelling species response under such complex spatial and ecological scenarios presents well-known challenges. Here, we use a biophysical ecological niche model validated through population genomics and palaeodemography to reconstruct past range shifts and identify future vulnerable areas and potential refugia of the king penguin in the Southern Ocean. Integrating genomic and demographic data at the whole-species level with specific biophysical constraints, we present a refined framework for predicting the effect of climate change on species relying on spatially and ecologically distinct areas to complete their life cycle (for example, migratory animals, marine pelagic organisms and central-place foragers) and, in general, on species living in fragmented ecosystems.

  8. Fire Regime and Ecosystem Effects of Climate-driven Changes in Rocky Mountains Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westerling, A. L.; Das, T.; Lubetkin, K.; Romme, W.; Ryan, M. G.; Smithwick, E. A.; Turner, M.

    2009-12-01

    Western US Forest managers face more wildfires than ever before, and it is increasingly imperative to anticipate the consequences of this trend. Large fires in the northern Rocky Mountains have increased in association with warmer temperatures, earlier snowmelt, and longer fire seasons (1), and this trend is likely to continue with global warming (2). Increased wildfire occurrence is already a concern shared by managers from many federal land-management agencies (3). However, new analyses for the western US suggest that future climate could diverge even more rapidly from past climate than previously suggested. Current model projections suggest end-of-century hydroclimatic conditions like those of 1988 (the year of the well-known Yellowstone Fires) may represent close to the average year rather than an extreme year. The consequences of a shift of this magnitude for the fire regime, post-fire succession and carbon (C) balance of western forest ecosystems are well beyond what scientists have explored to date, and may fundamentally change the potential of western forests to sequester atmospheric C. We link hydroclimatic extremes (spring and summer temperature and cumulative water-year moisture deficit) to extreme fire years in northern Rockies forests, using large forest fire histories and 1/8-degree gridded historical hydrologic simulations (1950 - 2005) (4) forced with historical gridded temperature and precipitation (5). The frequency of extremes in hydroclimate associated with historic severe fire years in the northern Rocky Mountains is compared to those projected under a range of climate change projections, using global climate model runs for the A2 and B1 emissions pathways for three global climate models (NCAR PCM1, GFDL CM2.1, CNRM CM3). Coarse-scale climatic variables are downscaled to a 1/8 degree grid and used to force hydrologic simulations (6, 7). We will present preliminary results using these hydrologic simulations to model spatially explicit annual

  9. Effects on the equine colon ecosystem of grass silage and haylage diets after an abrupt change from hay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muhonen, S; Julliand, V; Lindberg, J E; Bertilsson, J; Jansson, A

    2009-07-01

    The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of an abrupt change from grass hay (81% DM) to grass silage (36% DM) or grass haylage (55% DM), fed at similar DM intakes, and to compare the effects of silage and haylage on the composition and activities of the colon microflora. The forages were from the same swath harvested on the same day. Four adult colon-fistulated geldings were randomly assigned to diets in a crossover design. The study started with a preperiod when all 4 horses received the hay diet, followed by an abrupt feed change to the haylage diet for 2 horses and the silage diet for 2 horses. All 4 horses then had a new second preperiod of hay, followed by an abrupt feed change to the opposite haylage and silage diet. The periods were 21 d long, and the forage-only diets were supplemented with minerals and salt. The abrupt feed changes were made at 0800 h. Colon samples were taken before the abrupt feed change, 4 and 28 h after the feed change, and 8, 15, and 21 d after the feed change, all at 1200 h. Colon bacterial counts, VFA, pH, and DM concentrations were unchanged throughout the first 28 h after the abrupt feed change from hay to haylage and silage. Also, fecal pH and DM concentrations were unchanged during the first 28 h. During the weekly observations, colon lactobacilli counts increased (P = 0.023) in horses receiving the silage diet and were greater than on the haylage diet at 21 d. Streptococci counts decreased (P = 0.046) in horses receiving the haylage diet and were less than on the silage diet at 15 and 21 d. Total VFA concentrations and colon and fecal pH did not differ between diets and were unchanged throughout the weekly observations. The DM concentration of colon digesta and feces decreased (P = 0.030 and 0.049, respectively) on both diets during the weekly observations. The results suggest that in horses fed at the maintenance level of energy intake, an abrupt feed change from grass hay to grass silage or grass haylage from

  10. Ecosystem resilience to abrupt late Quaternary change in continental southern Siberia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harding, Poppy; Mackay, Anson; Bezrukova, Elena; Shchetnikov, Alexander

    2017-04-01

    Quaternary climate variability is dominated by long term orbital forcing along with abrupt sub-Milankovitch events on the scales of millennia to centuries, driven by internal feedback mechanisms, volcanic forcing and fluctuating solar activity. Although these are well documented in the North Atlantic region, their expression is poorly understood in Siberia, particularly in relation to abrupt climatic events. Siberia has the world's highest level of continentality offering an opportunity to study changes remote from oceanic influences and improving understanding of interactions between the Siberian High and other atmospheric systems including the Aleutian Low, Arctic oscillation and Icelandic Low1 and ENSO2. Understanding of palaeoenvironmental change in Siberia is essential due to the region's high sensitivity to climatic change, with warming rates considerably higher than the global average over the past 50 years3, triggering significant environmental changes, including permafrost degradation, shifts in the forest-steppe biome, increases in forest fires and warming of seasonally ice-covered lakes. Additionally, the region provides essential palaeoenvironmental context for early hominins, for example at globally important sites such as Denisova cave4, and megafauna extinctions5. This presentation outlines ongoing work at Lake Baunt, SE Siberia including: key quaternary climate forcings, the site and its regional context, the key methods and preliminary results. These include a dated record back to ˜30ka BP (based on multiple 14C dates and Bayesian age modelling), multiproxy indicators of palaeoproductivity (e.g. biogenic silica and diatom analyses) and lake mixing regimes (inferred from diatom analyses). Together these highlight several key Quaternary fluctuations potentially correlated to events recorded in Greenland Ice Cores (GS2, GS2.1, GI1, GS1), and these are considered against key Quaternary records including those from nearby Lake Baikal and Hulu Cave in

  11. Predicting Chronic Climate-Driven Disturbances and Their Mitigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McDowell, Nate G.; Michaletz, Sean T.; Bennett, Katrina E.; Solander, Kurt C.; Xu, Chonggang; Maxwell, Reed M.; Middleton, Richard S.

    2018-01-01

    Society increasingly demands the stable provision of ecosystem resources to support our population. Resource risks from climate-driven disturbances--including drought, heat, insect outbreaks, and wildfire--are rising as a chronic state of disequilibrium results from increasing temperatures and a greater frequency of extreme events. This confluence of increased demand and risk may soon reach critical thresholds. We explain here why extreme chronic disequilibrium of ecosystem function is likely to increase dramatically across the globe, creating no-analog conditions that challenge adaptation. We also present novel mechanistic theory that combines models for disturbance mortality and metabolic scaling to link size-dependent plant mortality to changes in ecosystem stocks and fluxes. Efforts must anticipate and model chronic ecosystem disequilibrium to properly prepare for resilience planning.

  12. A Collaborative Proposal: Simulating and Understanding Abrupt Climate-Ecosystem Changes During Holocene with NCAR-CCSM3.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhengyu Liu, Bette Otto-Bliesner

    2013-02-01

    We have made significant progress in our proposed work in the last 4 years (3 years plus 1 year of no cost extension). In anticipation of the next phase of study, we have spent time on the abrupt changes since the last glacial maximum. First, we have performed further model-data comparison based on our baseline TRACE-21 simulation and made important progress towards the understanding of several major climate transitions. Second, we have made a significant effort in processing the model output of TRACE-21 and have put this output on a website for access by the community. Third, we have completed many additional sensitivity experiments. In addition, we have organized synthesis workshops to facilitate and promote transient model-data comparison for the international community. Finally, we have identified new areas of interest for Holocene climate changes.

  13. Climate-driven changes in water level

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Rikke Bjerring; Olsen, Jesper; Jeppesen, Erik

    2013-01-01

    level rose. Moreover, Nymphaeaceae trichosclereids were abundant during the period of algal enrichment. Cladoceran taxa associated with floating leaved plants or benthic habitats responded in a complex way to changes in water level, but the cladoceran assemblages generally reflected deep lake conditions...... hydrology driven by precipitation. The isotopic, sedimentary and plant macrofossil records suggested that the lake level started to decrease around 8400 cal. yr BP, the decrease accelerating during 8350-8260 before an abrupt increase during 8260-8210. This pattern shows that the climate anomaly started...... rates of cladoceran subfossils and algal pigments, possibly due to increased turbidity and reduced nutrient input during this drier period. Pigment analysis also showed added importance of diatoms and cryptophytes during this climate anomaly, while cyanobacteria became more important when the water...

  14. Climate-driven changes in functional biogeography of Arctic marine fish communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frainer, André; Primicerio, Raul; Kortsch, Susanne; Aune, Magnus; Dolgov, Andrey V; Fossheim, Maria; Aschan, Michaela M

    2017-11-14

    Climate change triggers poleward shifts in species distribution leading to changes in biogeography. In the marine environment, fish respond quickly to warming, causing community-wide reorganizations, which result in profound changes in ecosystem functioning. Functional biogeography provides a framework to address how ecosystem functioning may be affected by climate change over large spatial scales. However, there are few studies on functional biogeography in the marine environment, and none in the Arctic, where climate-driven changes are most rapid and extensive. We investigated the impact of climate warming on the functional biogeography of the Barents Sea, which is characterized by a sharp zoogeographic divide separating boreal from Arctic species. Our unique dataset covered 52 fish species, 15 functional traits, and 3,660 stations sampled during the recent warming period. We found that the functional traits characterizing Arctic fish communities, mainly composed of small-sized bottom-dwelling benthivores, are being rapidly replaced by traits of incoming boreal species, particularly the larger, longer lived, and more piscivorous species. The changes in functional traits detected in the Arctic can be predicted based on the characteristics of species expected to undergo quick poleward shifts in response to warming. These are the large, generalist, motile species, such as cod and haddock. We show how functional biogeography can provide important insights into the relationship between species composition, diversity, ecosystem functioning, and environmental drivers. This represents invaluable knowledge in a period when communities and ecosystems experience rapid climate-driven changes across biogeographical regions. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  15. Overfishing reduces resilience of kelp beds to climate-driven catastrophic phase shift.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ling, S D; Johnson, C R; Frusher, S D; Ridgway, K R

    2009-12-29

    A key consideration in assessing impacts of climate change is the possibility of synergistic effects with other human-induced stressors. In the ocean realm, climate change and overfishing pose two of the greatest challenges to the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems. In eastern Tasmania, temperate coastal waters are warming at approximately four times the global ocean warming average, representing the fastest rate of warming in the Southern Hemisphere. This has driven range extension of the ecologically important long-spined sea urchin (Centrostephanus rodgersii), which has now commenced catastrophic overgrazing of productive Tasmanian kelp beds leading to loss of biodiversity and important rocky reef ecosystem services. Coincident with the overgrazing is heavy fishing of reef-based predators including the spiny lobster Jasus edwardsii. By conducting experiments inside and outside Marine Protected Areas we show that fishing, by removing large predatory lobsters, has reduced the resilience of kelp beds against the climate-driven threat of the sea urchin and thus increased risk of catastrophic shift to widespread sea urchin barrens. This shows that interactions between multiple human-induced stressors can exacerbate nonlinear responses of ecosystems to climate change and limit the adaptive capacity of these systems. Management actions focused on reducing the risk of catastrophic phase shift in ecosystems are particularly urgent in the face of ongoing warming and unprecedented levels of predator removal from the world's oceans.

  16. Are fish outside their usual ranges early indicators of climate-driven range shifts?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fogarty, Hannah E; Burrows, Michael T; Pecl, Gretta T; Robinson, Lucy M; Poloczanska, Elvira S

    2017-05-01

    Shifts in species ranges are a global phenomenon, well known to occur in response to a changing climate. New species arriving in an area may become pest species, modify ecosystem structure, or represent challenges or opportunities for fisheries and recreation. Early detection of range shifts and prompt implementation of any appropriate management strategies is therefore crucial. This study investigates whether 'first sightings' of marine species outside their normal ranges could provide an early warning of impending climate-driven range shifts. We examine the relationships between first sightings and marine regions defined by patterns of local climate velocities (calculated on a 50-year timescale), while also considering the distribution of observational effort (i.e. number of sampling days recorded with biological observations in global databases). The marine trajectory regions include climate 'source' regions (areas lacking connections to warmer areas), 'corridor' regions (areas where moving isotherms converge), and 'sink' regions (areas where isotherms locally disappear). Additionally, we investigate the latitudinal band in which first sightings were recorded, and species' thermal affiliations. We found that first sightings are more likely to occur in climate sink and 'divergent' regions (areas where many rapid and diverging climate trajectories pass through) indicating a role of temperature in driving changes in marine species distributions. The majority of our fish first sightings appear to be tropical and subtropical species moving towards high latitudes, as would be expected in climate warming. Our results indicate that first sightings are likely related to longer-term climatic processes, and therefore have potential use to indicate likely climate-driven range shifts. The development of an approach to detect impending range shifts at an early stage will allow resource managers and researchers to better manage opportunities resulting from range

  17. Functional Resilience against Climate-Driven Extinctions - Comparing the Functional Diversity of European and North American Tree Floras.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mario Liebergesell

    Full Text Available Future global change scenarios predict a dramatic loss of biodiversity for many regions in the world, potentially reducing the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions. Once before, during Plio-Pleistocene glaciations, harsher climatic conditions in Europe as compared to North America led to a more depauperate tree flora. Here we hypothesize that this climate driven species loss has also reduced functional diversity in Europe as compared to North America. We used variation in 26 traits for 154 North American and 66 European tree species and grid-based co-occurrences derived from distribution maps to compare functional diversity patterns of the two continents. First, we identified similar regions with respect to contemporary climate in the temperate zone of North America and Europe. Second, we compared the functional diversity of both continents and for the climatically similar sub-regions using the functional dispersion-index (FDis and the functional richness index (FRic. Third, we accounted in these comparisons for grid-scale differences in species richness, and, fourth, investigated the associated trait spaces using dimensionality reduction. For gymnosperms we find similar functional diversity on both continents, whereas for angiosperms functional diversity is significantly greater in Europe than in North America. These results are consistent across different scales, for climatically similar regions and considering species richness patterns. We decomposed these differences in trait space occupation into differences in functional diversity vs. differences in functional identity. We show that climate-driven species loss on a continental scale might be decoupled from or at least not linearly related to changes in functional diversity. This might be important when analyzing the effects of climate-driven biodiversity change on ecosystem functioning.

  18. Greenness and Carbon Stocks of Mangroves: A climate-driven Effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lule, A. V.; Colditz, R. R.; Herrera-Silveira, J.; Guevara, M.; Rodriguez-Zuniga, M. T.; Cruz, I.; Ressl, R.; Vargas, R.

    2017-12-01

    Mangroves cover less than 1% of the earth's surface and are one o­­­f the most productive ecosystems of the world. They are highly vulnerable to climate variability due to their sensitivity to environmental changes; therefore, there are scientific and societal needs to designed frameworks to assess mangrove's vulnerability. We study the relationship between climate drivers, canopy greenness and carbon stocks to quantify a potential climate-driven effect on mangrove carbon dynamics. We identify greenness trends and their relationships with climate drivers and carbon stocks throughout 15 years (2001-2015) across mangrove forests of Mexico. We defined several categories for mangroves: a) Arid mangroves with superficial water input (ARsw); b) Humid mangroves with interior or underground water input (HUiw); and c) Humid mangroves with superficial water input (HUsw). We found a positive significant trend of greenness for ARsw and HUsw categories (pmangrove's categories (pmangrove categories showed higher greenness values during winter; which is likely driven by temperature with a lag of -3 to -5 months (r2 > 0.69). Precipitation and temperature drive canopy greenness only across HUsw. Regarding carbon stocks, the HUiw shows the lower amount of aboveground carbon (AGC; 12.7 Mg C ha-1) and the higher belowground carbon (BGC; 219 Mg C ha-1). The HUsw shows the higher amount of AGC (169.5 Mg C ha-1) and the ARsw the lower of BGC (92.4 Mg C ha-1). Climate drivers are better related with canopy greenness and AGC for both humid mangrove categories (r2 > 0.48), while the relationship of BGC and canopy greenness is lower for all categories (r2 mangrove's ecosystem function and environmental services, as well as their potential vulnerability to climate variability.

  19. Simultaneous abrupt shifts in hydrology and fish assemblage structure in a floodplain lake in the central Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Röpke, Cristhiana P; Amadio, Sidinéia; Zuanon, Jansen; Ferreira, Efrem J G; Deus, Cláudia Pereira de; Pires, Tiago H S; Winemiller, Kirk O

    2017-01-10

    Combined effects of climate change and deforestation have altered precipitation patterns in the Amazon. This has led to changes in the frequency of extreme events of flood and drought in recent decades and in the magnitude of the annual flood pulse, a phenomenon that influences virtually all aspects of river-floodplain ecosystem dynamics. Analysis of long-term data revealed abrupt and synchronous changes in hydrology and fish assemblage structure of a floodplain lake near the confluence of Amazon and Negro rivers. After an intense drought in 2005, the assemblage assumed a different and fairly persistent taxonomic composition and functional structure. Declines in abundance after 2005 were more pronounced for species of all sizes having equilibrium life history strategy, large species with periodic life history strategy, and for all trophic levels except primary consumers. Our results suggest that the extreme drought triggered changes in the fish assemblage and subsequent anomalous hydrological conditions have hampered assemblage recovery. These findings stress the need to account for climatic-driven hydrological changes in conservation efforts addressing aquatic biodiversity and fishery resources in the central Amazon.

  20. Climate-Driven Reshuffling of Species and Genes: Potential Conservation Roles for Species Translocations and Recombinant Hybrid Genotypes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon Mark Scriber

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Comprising 50%–75% of the world’s fauna, insects are a prominent part of biodiversity in communities and ecosystems globally. Biodiversity across all levels of biological classifications is fundamentally based on genetic diversity. However, the integration of genomics and phylogenetics into conservation management may not be as rapid as climate change. The genetics of hybrid introgression as a source of novel variation for ecological divergence and evolutionary speciation (and resilience may generate adaptive potential and diversity fast enough to respond to locally-altered environmental conditions. Major plant and herbivore hybrid zones with associated communities deserve conservation consideration. This review addresses functional genetics across multi-trophic-level interactions including “invasive species” in various ecosystems as they may become disrupted in different ways by rapid climate change. “Invasive genes” (into new species and populations need to be recognized for their positive creative potential and addressed in conservation programs. “Genetic rescue” via hybrid translocations may provide needed adaptive flexibility for rapid adaptation to environmental change. While concerns persist for some conservationists, this review emphasizes the positive aspects of hybrids and hybridization. Specific implications of natural genetic introgression are addressed with a few examples from butterflies, including transgressive phenotypes and climate-driven homoploid recombinant hybrid speciation. Some specific examples illustrate these points using the swallowtail butterflies (Papilionidae with their long-term historical data base (phylogeographical diversity changes and recent (3-decade climate-driven temporal and genetic divergence in recombinant homoploid hybrids and relatively recent hybrid speciation of Papilio appalachiensis in North America. Climate-induced “reshuffling” (recombinations of species composition, genotypes

  1. Climate-Driven Reshuffling of Species and Genes: Potential Conservation Roles for Species Translocations and Recombinant Hybrid Genotypes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scriber, Jon Mark

    2013-12-24

    Comprising 50%-75% of the world's fauna, insects are a prominent part of biodiversity in communities and ecosystems globally. Biodiversity across all levels of biological classifications is fundamentally based on genetic diversity. However, the integration of genomics and phylogenetics into conservation management may not be as rapid as climate change. The genetics of hybrid introgression as a source of novel variation for ecological divergence and evolutionary speciation (and resilience) may generate adaptive potential and diversity fast enough to respond to locally-altered environmental conditions. Major plant and herbivore hybrid zones with associated communities deserve conservation consideration. This review addresses functional genetics across multi-trophic-level interactions including "invasive species" in various ecosystems as they may become disrupted in different ways by rapid climate change. "Invasive genes" (into new species and populations) need to be recognized for their positive creative potential and addressed in conservation programs. "Genetic rescue" via hybrid translocations may provide needed adaptive flexibility for rapid adaptation to environmental change. While concerns persist for some conservationists, this review emphasizes the positive aspects of hybrids and hybridization. Specific implications of natural genetic introgression are addressed with a few examples from butterflies, including transgressive phenotypes and climate-driven homoploid recombinant hybrid speciation. Some specific examples illustrate these points using the swallowtail butterflies (Papilionidae) with their long-term historical data base (phylogeographical diversity changes) and recent (3-decade) climate-driven temporal and genetic divergence in recombinant homoploid hybrids and relatively recent hybrid speciation of Papilio appalachiensis in North America. Climate-induced "reshuffling" (recombinations) of species composition, genotypes, and genomes may become

  2. Climate-driven Sympatry does not Lead to Foraging Competition Between Adélie and Gentoo Penguins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cimino, M. A.; Moline, M. A.; Fraser, W.; Patterson-Fraser, D.; Oliver, M. J.

    2016-02-01

    Climate-driven sympatry may lead to competition for food resources between species, population shifts and changes in ecosystem structure. Rapid warming in the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is coincident with increasing gentoo penguin and decreasing Adélie penguin populations, suggesting that competition for food may exacerbate the Adélie penguin decline. At Palmer Station, we tested for foraging competition between these species by comparing their prey, Antarctic krill, distributions and penguin foraging behaviors on fine scales. To study these predator-prey dynamics, we simultaneously deployed penguin satellite transmitters, and a REMUS autonomous underwater vehicle that acoustically detected krill aggregations and measured physical and biological properties of the water column. We detected krill aggregations within the horizontal and vertical foraging ranges of Adélie and gentoo penguin. In the upper 100 m of the water column, the distribution of krill aggregations were mainly associated with CHL and light, suggesting that krill selected for habitats that balance the need to consume food and avoid predation. Adélie and gentoo penguins mainly had spatially segregated foraging areas but in areas of overlap, gentoo penguins switched foraging behavior by foraging at deeper depths, a strategy which limits competition with Adélie penguins. This suggests that climate-driven sympatry does not necessarily result in competitive exclusion. Contrary to a recent theory, which suggests that increased competition for krill is the major driver of Adélie penguin population declines, we suggest that declines in Adélie penguins along the WAP are more likely due to direct and indirect climate impacts on their life histories.

  3. Climate-Driven Changes Within the Larch Forest of Northern Siberia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kharuk, V.

    2015-12-01

    Thanks to the support of NASA's Carbon Cycle and Ecosystem Focus Area programs, joint NASA/ Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences studies have been conducted throughout Siberia. The overall objective has been to obtain field and satellite measurements to examine carbon stocks and track changes in forests across this vast area. In this presentation, we discuss some of the finding from this 25+ year collaboration' i.e., observed climate-driven changes within larch communities in northern Siberia. Field measurements and satellite data, including Terra/MODIS, Landsat, GRACE and QuickBird were used for analysis of forest conditions. The following results will be discussed. (1). At the northern limit of larch (Larix gmelinii) range (i.e.,~72°N) tree mortality was observed during the cooling period from the 16th century to the beginning of the 19th century. Post- Little Ice Age (LIA) trees re-establishment followed warming temperatures by the middle of the19th century. The current tree line has recovered to the pre-LIA line location although tree heights and stand densities are comparatively lower. The mean rate of upward migration was found to be 0.35 m yr-1 (with a range of 0.21-0.58). (2) The migration of the "dark needle conifers" (DNC: Abies sibirica, Pinus sibirica, Picea obovata) into the southern margin zone of larch dominated forest was documented. Meanwhile, within the traditional DNC range decline and mortality of both Siberian pine and fir were observed and attributed, primarily, due to an increased drought. (3) Within Central Siberia larch growth is limited by early summer temperatures and available water from thawing permafrost. Larch tree ring width (TRW) correlated with early summer temperatures and water vapor pressure (r = 0.73 and r = 0.69, respectively), drought (SPEI; r = 0.68-0.82), snow accumulation (r = 0.61), previous year precipitation (r = 0.63) and soil water anomalies (r = 0.79). Larch TRW growth and Gross Primary Productivity

  4. Abrupt warming of the Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Raitsos, D. E.

    2011-07-19

    Coral reef ecosystems, often referred to as “marine rainforests,” concentrate the most diverse life in the oceans. Red Sea reef dwellers are adapted in a very warm environment, fact that makes them vulnerable to further and rapid warming. The detection and understanding of abrupt temperature changes is an important task, as ecosystems have more chances to adapt in a slowly rather than in a rapid changing environment. Using satellite derived sea surface and ground based air temperatures, it is shown that the Red Sea is going through an intense warming initiated in the mid-90s, with evidence for an abrupt increase after 1994 (0.7°C difference pre and post the shift). The air temperature is found to be a key parameter that influences the Red Sea marine temperature. The comparisons with Northern Hemisphere temperatures revealed that the observed warming is part of global climate change trends. The hitherto results also raise additional questions regarding other broader climatic impacts over the area.

  5. Abrupt warming of the Red Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raitsos, D. E.; Hoteit, I.; Prihartato, P. K.; Chronis, T.; Triantafyllou, G.; Abualnaja, Y.

    2011-07-01

    Coral reef ecosystems, often referred to as “marine rainforests,” concentrate the most diverse life in the oceans. Red Sea reef dwellers are adapted in a very warm environment, fact that makes them vulnerable to further and rapid warming. The detection and understanding of abrupt temperature changes is an important task, as ecosystems have more chances to adapt in a slowly rather than in a rapid changing environment. Using satellite derived sea surface and ground based air temperatures, it is shown that the Red Sea is going through an intense warming initiated in the mid-90s, with evidence for an abrupt increase after 1994 (0.7°C difference pre and post the shift). The air temperature is found to be a key parameter that influences the Red Sea marine temperature. The comparisons with Northern Hemisphere temperatures revealed that the observed warming is part of global climate change trends. The hitherto results also raise additional questions regarding other broader climatic impacts over the area.

  6. A decade of sea level rise slowed by climate-driven hydrology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reager, J T; Gardner, A S; Famiglietti, J S; Wiese, D N; Eicker, A; Lo, M-H

    2016-02-12

    Climate-driven changes in land water storage and their contributions to sea level rise have been absent from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sea level budgets owing to observational challenges. Recent advances in satellite measurement of time-variable gravity combined with reconciled global glacier loss estimates enable a disaggregation of continental land mass changes and a quantification of this term. We found that between 2002 and 2014, climate variability resulted in an additional 3200 ± 900 gigatons of water being stored on land. This gain partially offset water losses from ice sheets, glaciers, and groundwater pumping, slowing the rate of sea level rise by 0.71 ± 0.20 millimeters per year. These findings highlight the importance of climate-driven changes in hydrology when assigning attribution to decadal changes in sea level. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  7. Spatially explicit integrated modeling and economic valuation of climate driven land use change and its indirect effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bateman, Ian; Agarwala, Matthew; Binner, Amy; Coombes, Emma; Day, Brett; Ferrini, Silvia; Fezzi, Carlo; Hutchins, Michael; Lovett, Andrew; Posen, Paulette

    2016-10-01

    We present an integrated model of the direct consequences of climate change on land use, and the indirect effects of induced land use change upon the natural environment. The model predicts climate-driven shifts in the profitability of alternative uses of agricultural land. Both the direct impact of climate change and the induced shift in land use patterns will cause secondary effects on the water environment, for which agriculture is the major source of diffuse pollution. We model the impact of changes in such pollution on riverine ecosystems showing that these will be spatially heterogeneous. Moreover, we consider further knock-on effects upon the recreational benefits derived from water environments, which we assess using revealed preference methods. This analysis permits a multi-layered examination of the economic consequences of climate change, assessing the sequence of impacts from climate change through farm gross margins, land use, water quality and recreation, both at the individual and catchment scale. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Interannual abundance changes of gelatinous carnivore zooplankton unveil climate-driven hydrographic variations in the Iberian Peninsula, Portugal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Ambrosio, Mariaelena; Molinero, Juan C; Azeiteiro, Ulisses M; Pardal, Miguel A; Primo, Ana L; Nyitrai, Daniel; Marques, Sónia C

    2016-09-01

    The persistent massive blooms of gelatinous zooplankton recorded during recent decades may be indicative of marine ecosystem changes. In this study, we investigated the potential influence of the North Atlantic climate (NAO) variability on decadal abundance changes of gelatinous carnivore zooplankton in the Mondego estuary, Portugal, over the period 2003-2013. During the 11-year study, the community of gelatinous carnivores encompassed a larger diversity of hydromedusae than siphonophores; the former dominated by Obelia spp., Lizzia blondina, Clythia hemisphaerica, Liriope tetraphylla and Solmaris corona, while the latter dominated by Muggiaea atlantica. Gelatinous carnivore zooplankton displayed marked interannual variability and mounting species richness over the period examined. Their pattern of abundance shifted towards larger abundances ca. 2007 and significant phenological changes. The latter included a shift in the mean annual pattern (from unimodal to bimodal peak, prior and after 2007 respectively) and an earlier timing of the first annual peak concurrent with enhanced temperatures. These changes were concurrent with the climate-driven environmental variability mainly controlled by the NAO, which displayed larger variance after 2007 along with an enhanced upwelling activity. Structural equation modelling allowed depicting cascading effects derived from the NAO influence on regional climate and upwelling variability further shaping water temperature. Such cascading effect percolated the structure and dynamics of the community of gelatinous carnivore zooplankton in the Mondego estuary. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Climate-driven introduction of the Black Death and successive plague reintroductions into Europe

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Schmid, B. V.; Büntgen, Ulf; Easterday, W. R.; Ginzler, Ch.; Walloe, L.; Bramanti, B.; Stenseth, N. C.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 112, č. 10 (2015), s. 3020-3025 ISSN 0027-8424 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : yersinia-pestis * xenopsylla-cheopis * bubonic plague * central-asia * synchrony * dynamics * transmission * temperature * populations * thresholds * Yersinia pestis * medieval epidemiology * climate-driven disease dynamics Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 9.423, year: 2015 http://www.pnas.org/content/112/10/3020.full.pdf

  10. River piracy and drainage basin reorganization led by climate-driven glacier retreat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shugar, Daniel H.; Clague, John J.; Best, James L.; Schoof, Christian; Willis, Michael J.; Copland, Luke; Roe, Gerard H.

    2017-04-01

    River piracy--the diversion of the headwaters of one stream into another one--can dramatically change the routing of water and sediment, with a profound effect on landscape evolution. Stream piracy has been investigated in glacial environments, but so far it has mainly been studied over Quaternary or longer timescales. Here we document how retreat of Kaskawulsh Glacier--one of Canada's largest glaciers--abruptly and radically altered the regional drainage pattern in spring 2016. We use a combination of hydrological measurements and drone-generated digital elevation models to show that in late May 2016, meltwater from the glacier was re-routed from discharge in a northward direction into the Bering Sea, to southward into the Pacific Ocean. Based on satellite image analysis and a signal-to-noise ratio as a metric of glacier retreat, we conclude that this instance of river piracy was due to post-industrial climate change. Rapid regional drainage reorganizations of this type can have profound downstream impacts on ecosystems, sediment and carbon budgets, and downstream communities that rely on a stable and sustained discharge. We suggest that the planforms of Slims and Kaskawulsh rivers will adjust in response to altered flows, and the future Kaskawulsh watershed will extend into the now-abandoned headwaters of Slims River and eventually capture the Kluane Lake drainage.

  11. Abrupt climate-independent fire regime changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pausas, Juli G.; Keeley, Jon E.

    2014-01-01

    Wildfires have played a determining role in distribution, composition and structure of many ecosystems worldwide and climatic changes are widely considered to be a major driver of future fire regime changes. However, forecasting future climatic change induced impacts on fire regimes will require a clearer understanding of other drivers of abrupt fire regime changes. Here, we focus on evidence from different environmental and temporal settings of fire regimes changes that are not directly attributed to climatic changes. We review key cases of these abrupt fire regime changes at different spatial and temporal scales, including those directly driven (i) by fauna, (ii) by invasive plant species, and (iii) by socio-economic and policy changes. All these drivers might generate non-linear effects of landscape changes in fuel structure; that is, they generate fuel changes that can cross thresholds of landscape continuity, and thus drastically change fire activity. Although climatic changes might contribute to some of these changes, there are also many instances that are not primarily linked to climatic shifts. Understanding the mechanism driving fire regime changes should contribute to our ability to better assess future fire regimes.

  12. Intrapritoneal Hemorrhage after Placental Abruption

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nahid Sakhavar

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available A placental abruption or abruptio placentae (where in the placental lining has separated from the uterus of the mother is one of the complications caused by trauma during pregnancy. It lets the blood flow to infiltrate in the uterine lining and to develop Couvelaire uterus (also known as uteroplacental apoplexy and uterine atony (a condition in which a woman's uterine muscles lose the ability to contract after childbirth; however, it rarely develops considerable hemoperitoneum which needs hysterectomy. In this report, a unique case of placental abruption caused by trauma in a 28-year-old Afghan woman is introduced in which severity and duration of trauma because of delay in reaching health equipped center led to developing massive hemoperitoneum (infiltration of great amount of blood into the abdominal cavity and its complications.

  13. Spectral decomposition of regulatory thresholds for climate-driven fluctuations in hydro- and wind power availability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wörman, A.; Bottacin-Busolin, A.; Zmijewski, N.; Riml, J.

    2017-08-01

    Climate-driven fluctuations in the runoff and potential energy of surface water are generally large in comparison to the capacity of hydropower regulation, particularly when hydropower is used to balance the electricity production from covarying renewable energy sources such as wind power. To define the bounds of reservoir storage capacity, we introduce a dedicated reservoir volume that aggregates the storage capacity of several reservoirs to handle runoff from specific watersheds. We show how the storage bounds can be related to a spectrum of the climate-driven modes of variability in water availability and to the covariation between water and wind availability. A regional case study of the entire hydropower system in Sweden indicates that the longest regulation period possible to consider spans from a few days of individual subwatersheds up to several years, with an average limit of a couple of months. Watershed damping of the runoff substantially increases the longest considered regulation period and capacity. The high covariance found between the potential energy of the surface water and wind energy significantly reduces the longest considered regulation period when hydropower is used to balance the fluctuating wind power.

  14. Climate-driven introduction of the Black Death and successive plague reintroductions into Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmid, Boris V; Büntgen, Ulf; Easterday, W Ryan; Ginzler, Christian; Walløe, Lars; Bramanti, Barbara; Stenseth, Nils Chr

    2015-03-10

    The Black Death, originating in Asia, arrived in the Mediterranean harbors of Europe in 1347 CE, via the land and sea trade routes of the ancient Silk Road system. This epidemic marked the start of the second plague pandemic, which lasted in Europe until the early 19th century. This pandemic is generally understood as the consequence of a singular introduction of Yersinia pestis, after which the disease established itself in European rodents over four centuries. To locate these putative plague reservoirs, we studied the climate fluctuations that preceded regional plague epidemics, based on a dataset of 7,711 georeferenced historical plague outbreaks and 15 annually resolved tree-ring records from Europe and Asia. We provide evidence for repeated climate-driven reintroductions of the bacterium into European harbors from reservoirs in Asia, with a delay of 15 ± 1 y. Our analysis finds no support for the existence of permanent plague reservoirs in medieval Europe.

  15. Climate-driven ichthyoplankton drift model predicts growth of top predator young.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myksvoll, Mari S; Erikstad, Kjell E; Barrett, Robert T; Sandvik, Hanno; Vikebø, Frode

    2013-01-01

    Climate variability influences seabird population dynamics in several ways including access to prey near colonies during the critical chick-rearing period. This study addresses breeding success in a Barents Sea colony of common guillemots Uria aalge where trophic conditions vary according to changes in the northward transport of warm Atlantic Water. A drift model was used to simulate interannual variations in transport of cod Gadus morhua larvae along the Norwegian coast towards their nursery grounds in the Barents Sea. The results showed that the arrival of cod larvae from southern spawning grounds had a major effect on the size of common guillemot chicks at fledging. Furthermore, the fraction of larvae from the south was positively correlated to the inflow of Atlantic Water into the Barents Sea thus clearly demonstrating the mechanisms by which climate-driven bottom-up processes influence interannual variations in reproductive success in a marine top predator.

  16. Climate-driven ichthyoplankton drift model predicts growth of top predator young.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mari S Myksvoll

    Full Text Available Climate variability influences seabird population dynamics in several ways including access to prey near colonies during the critical chick-rearing period. This study addresses breeding success in a Barents Sea colony of common guillemots Uria aalge where trophic conditions vary according to changes in the northward transport of warm Atlantic Water. A drift model was used to simulate interannual variations in transport of cod Gadus morhua larvae along the Norwegian coast towards their nursery grounds in the Barents Sea. The results showed that the arrival of cod larvae from southern spawning grounds had a major effect on the size of common guillemot chicks at fledging. Furthermore, the fraction of larvae from the south was positively correlated to the inflow of Atlantic Water into the Barents Sea thus clearly demonstrating the mechanisms by which climate-driven bottom-up processes influence interannual variations in reproductive success in a marine top predator.

  17. Climate-driven introduction of the Black Death and successive plague reintroductions into Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Büntgen, Ulf; Easterday, W. Ryan; Ginzler, Christian; Walløe, Lars; Bramanti, Barbara; Stenseth, Nils Chr.

    2015-01-01

    The Black Death, originating in Asia, arrived in the Mediterranean harbors of Europe in 1347 CE, via the land and sea trade routes of the ancient Silk Road system. This epidemic marked the start of the second plague pandemic, which lasted in Europe until the early 19th century. This pandemic is generally understood as the consequence of a singular introduction of Yersinia pestis, after which the disease established itself in European rodents over four centuries. To locate these putative plague reservoirs, we studied the climate fluctuations that preceded regional plague epidemics, based on a dataset of 7,711 georeferenced historical plague outbreaks and 15 annually resolved tree-ring records from Europe and Asia. We provide evidence for repeated climate-driven reintroductions of the bacterium into European harbors from reservoirs in Asia, with a delay of 15 ± 1 y. Our analysis finds no support for the existence of permanent plague reservoirs in medieval Europe. PMID:25713390

  18. Climate driven range divergence among host species affects range-wide patterns of parasitism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard E. Feldman

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Species interactions like parasitism influence the outcome of climate-driven shifts in species ranges. For some host species, parasitism can only occur in that part of its range that overlaps with a second host species. Thus, predicting future parasitism may depend on how the ranges of the two hosts change in relation to each other. In this study, we tested whether the climate driven species range shift of Odocoileus virginianus (white-tailed deer accounts for predicted changes in parasitism of two other species from the family Cervidae, Alces alces (moose and Rangifer tarandus (caribou, in North America. We used MaxEnt models to predict the recent (2000 and future (2050 ranges (probabilities of occurrence of the cervids and a parasite Parelaphostrongylus tenuis (brainworm taking into account range shifts of the parasite’s intermediate gastropod hosts. Our models predicted that range overlap between A. alces/R. tarandus and P. tenuis will decrease between 2000 and 2050, an outcome that reflects decreased overlap between A. alces/R. tarandus and O. virginianus and not the parasites, themselves. Geographically, our models predicted increasing potential occurrence of P. tenuis where A. alces/R. tarandus are likely to decline, but minimal spatial overlap where A. alces/R. tarandus are likely to increase. Thus, parasitism may exacerbate climate-mediated southern contraction of A. alces and R. tarandus ranges but will have limited influence on northward range expansion. Our results suggest that the spatial dynamics of one host species may be the driving force behind future rates of parasitism for another host species.

  19. Abrupt climate change:Debate or action

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHENG Hai

    2004-01-01

    Global abrupt climate changes have been documented by various climate records, including ice cores,ocean sediment cores, lake sediment cores, cave deposits,loess deposits and pollen records. The climate system prefers to be in one of two stable states, i.e. interstadial or stadial conditions, but not in between. The transition between two states has an abrupt character. Abrupt climate changes are,in general, synchronous in the northern hemisphere and tropical regions. The timescale for abrupt climate changes can be as short as a decade. As the impacts may be potentially serious, we need to take actions such as reducing CO2emissions to the atmosphere.

  20. The Vulnerability of Forest Ecosystems of Armenia to the Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khachatryan, S.

    2009-05-01

    Climate changes characterized as global warming can lead to irreversible effects on regional and global scales, such as drought, pest attacks, diseases, excessive forest fires, and climate driven extinction of numerous animal and plant species. We assess the issues that the development of forestry in Armenia faces, where the climate change is causing the landscape zone borders in the territory to shift. This will have a significant impact on the most vulnerable tree species in Armenia. An increase in climate aridity and intensification of desertification can be expected under the projected escalated temperatures and reduced precipitation. For example, we can consider average annual temperature of the Ijevan meteorological station (located in forestry region) for the period of 1936-2008. We analyze the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in Armenia to climatic and anthropogenic factors for the period of 1936-2008. Temperature and precipitation data from 25 meteorological stations in the territory of Armenia is studied for the period of 1936-2008. The dynamic of average temperature annual anomalies are revealed. The deviations of temperature and precipitation from the norms (average for 1961-1990) are evaluated for the period of study. We discuss the reasons for the abrupt increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation. Based on the dataset, the possible near future impact of global climate change on the Armenian forest ecosystems is discussed, and measures on the adaptation to the adverse consequences that climate change has on forests are offered.

  1. Life cycle ecophysiology of small pelagic fish and climate-driven changes in populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peck, Myron A.; Reglero, Patricia; Takahashi, Motomitsu; Catalán, Ignacio A.

    2013-09-01

    Due to their population characteristics and trophodynamic role, small pelagic fishes are excellent bio-indicators of climate-driven changes in marine systems world-wide. We argue that making robust projections of future changes in the productivity and distribution of small pelagics will require a cause-and-effect understanding of historical changes based upon physiological principles. Here, we reviewed the ecophysiology of small pelagic (clupeiform) fishes including a matrix of abiotic and biotic extrinsic factors (e.g., temperature, salinity, light, and prey characteristics) and stage-specific vital rates: (1) adult spawning, (2) survival and development of eggs and yolk sac larvae, and (3) feeding and growth of larvae, post-larvae and juveniles. Emphasis was placed on species inhabiting Northwest Pacific and Northeast Atlantic (European) waters for which summary papers are particularly scarce compared to anchovy and sardine in upwelling systems. Our review revealed that thermal niches (optimal and sub-optimal ranges in temperatures) were species- and stage-specific but that temperature effects only partly explained observed changes in the distribution and/or productivity of populations in the Northwest Pacific and Northeast Atlantic; changes in temperature may be necessary but not sufficient to induce population-level shifts. Prey availability during the late larval and early juvenile period was a common, density-dependent mechanism linked to fluctuations in populations but recruitment mechanisms were system-specific suggesting that generalizations of climate drivers across systems should be avoided. We identified gaps in knowledge regarding basic elements of the growth physiology of each life stage that will require additional field and laboratory study. Avenues of research are recommended that will aid the development of models that provide more robust, physiological-based projections of the population dynamics of these and other small pelagic fish. In our

  2. Contribution of climate-driven change in continental water storage to recent sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milly, P. C. D.; Cazenave, A.; Gennero, C.

    2003-01-01

    Using a global model of continental water balance, forced by interannual variations in precipitation and near-surface atmospheric temperature for the period 1981–1998, we estimate the sea-level changes associated with climate-driven changes in storage of water as snowpack, soil water, and ground water; storage in ice sheets and large lakes is not considered. The 1981–1998 trend is estimated to be 0.12 mm/yr, and substantial interannual fluctuations are inferred; for 1993–1998, the trend is 0.25 mm/yr. At the decadal time scale, the terrestrial contribution to eustatic (i.e., induced by mass exchange) sea-level rise is significantly smaller than the estimated steric (i.e., induced by density changes) trend for the same period, but is not negligibly small. In the model the sea-level rise is driven mainly by a downtrend in continental precipitation during the study period, which we believe was generated by natural variability in the climate system. PMID:14576277

  3. Cross-site comparisons of concentration-discharge relationships reveal climate-driven chemostatic set points

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godsey, S.; Kirchner, J. W.

    2017-12-01

    Streamflow solute concentrations often vary predictably with flows, providing insight into processes controlling solute generation and export. Previous work by the authors showed that log-transformed concentration-discharge relationships of weathering-derived solutes in 59 headwater catchments had relatively low slopes, implying that these watersheds behaved almost like chemostats. That is, their rates of solute production and/or mobilization were nearly proportional to water fluxes, on both event and inter-annual time scales. Here we re-examine these findings using data from roughly 1000 catchments, ranging from ˜10 to >1,000,000 sq. km in drainage area, and spanning a wide range of lithologic and climatic settings.Concentration-discharge relationships among this much larger set of much larger catchments are broadly consistent with the chemostatic behavior described above. However, site-to-site variations in mean concentrations among these catchments are negatively correlated with long-term average precipitation and discharge, suggesting dilution of stream concentrations under long-term leaching of the critical zone. Thus, on event and inter-annual time scales, stream solute concentrations are chemostatically buffered by groundwater storage and fast chemical reactions (such as ion exchange), but on much longer time scales, the catchment's chemostatic "set point" is determined by climatically driven critical zone evolution. We present examples illustrating short-term and long-term controls on water quality consistent with variations in weather and climate, and discuss their implications.

  4. Evaluating the performance of infectious disease forecasts: A comparison of climate-driven and seasonal dengue forecasts for Mexico

    OpenAIRE

    Johansson, Michael A.; Reich, Nicholas G.; Hota, Aditi; Brownstein, John S.; Santillana, Mauricio

    2016-01-01

    Dengue viruses, which infect millions of people per year worldwide, cause large epidemics that strain healthcare systems. Despite diverse efforts to develop forecasting tools including autoregressive time series, climate-driven statistical, and mechanistic biological models, little work has been done to understand the contribution of different components to improved prediction. We developed a framework to assess and compare dengue forecasts produced from different types of models and evaluate...

  5. Spatially explicit integrated modeling and economic valuation of climate driven land use change and its indirect effects.

    OpenAIRE

    Bateman, Ian; Agarwala, M.; Binner, A.; Coombes, E.; Day, B.; Ferrini, Silvia; Fezzi, C.; Hutchins, M.; Lovett, A.; Posen, P.

    2016-01-01

    We present an integrated model of the direct consequences of climate change on land use, and the indirect effects of induced land use change upon the natural environment. The model predicts climate-driven shifts in the profitability of alternative uses of agricultural land. Both the direct impact of climate change and the induced shift in land use patterns will cause secondary effects on the water environment, for which agriculture is the major source of diffuse pollution. We model the impact...

  6. Surface area changes of Himalayan ponds as a proxy of hydrological climate-driven fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salerno, Franco; Thakuri, Sudeep; Guyennon, Nicolas; Viviano, Gaetano; Tartari, Gianni

    2016-04-01

    The meteorological measurements at high-elevations of the Himalayan range are scarce due to the harsh conditions of these environments which limit the suitable maintenance of weather stations. As a consequence, the meager knowledge on how the climate is changed in the last decades at Himalayan high-elevations sets a serious limit upon the interpretation of relationships between causes and recent observed effects on the cryosphere. Although the glaciers masses reduction in Himalaya is currently sufficiently well described, how changes in climate drivers (precipitation and temperature) have influenced the melting and shrinkage processes are less clear. Consequently, the uncertainty related to the recent past amplifies when future forecasts are done, both for climate and impacts. In this context, a substantial body of research has already demonstrated the high sensitivity of lakes and ponds to climate. Some climate-related signals are highly visible and easily measurable in lakes. For example, climate-driven fluctuations in lake surface area have been observed in many remote sites. On interior Tibetan Plateau the lake growth since the late 1990s is mainly attributed to increased regional precipitation and weakened evaporation. Differently, other authors attribute at the observed increases of lake surfaces at the enhanced glacier melting. In our opinion these divergences found in literature are due to the type of glacial lakes considered in the study and in particular their relationship with glaciers. In general, in Himalaya three types of glacial lakes can be distinguished: (i) lakes that are not directly connected with glaciers, but that may have a glacier located in their basin (unconnected glacial lakes); (ii) supraglacial lakes, which develop on the surface of the glacier downstream; or (iii) proglacial lakes, which are moraine-dammed lakes that are in contact with the glacier front. Some of these lakes store large quantities of water and are susceptible to GLOFs

  7. Climate-driven disparities among ecological interactions threaten kelp forest persistence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Provost, Euan J; Kelaher, Brendan P; Dworjanyn, Symon A; Russell, Bayden D; Connell, Sean D; Ghedini, Giulia; Gillanders, Bronwyn M; Figueira, WillIAM; Coleman, Melinda A

    2017-01-01

    The combination of ocean warming and acidification brings an uncertain future to kelp forests that occupy the warmest parts of their range. These forests are not only subject to the direct negative effects of ocean climate change, but also to a combination of unknown indirect effects associated with changing ecological landscapes. Here, we used mesocosm experiments to test the direct effects of ocean warming and acidification on kelp biomass and photosynthetic health, as well as climate-driven disparities in indirect effects involving key consumers (urchins and rock lobsters) and competitors (algal turf). Elevated water temperature directly reduced kelp biomass, while their turf-forming competitors expanded in response to ocean acidification and declining kelp canopy. Elevated temperatures also increased growth of urchins and, concurrently, the rate at which they thinned kelp canopy. Rock lobsters, which are renowned for keeping urchin populations in check, indirectly intensified negative pressures on kelp by reducing their consumption of urchins in response to elevated temperature. Overall, these results suggest that kelp forests situated towards the low-latitude margins of their distribution will need to adapt to ocean warming in order to persist in the future. What is less certain is how such adaptation in kelps can occur in the face of intensifying consumptive (via ocean warming) and competitive (via ocean acidification) pressures that affect key ecological interactions associated with their persistence. If such indirect effects counter adaptation to changing climate, they may erode the stability of kelp forests and increase the probability of regime shifts from complex habitat-forming species to more simple habitats dominated by algal turfs. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Theropod Fauna from Southern Australia Indicates High Polar Diversity and Climate-Driven Dinosaur Provinciality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benson, Roger B. J.; Rich, Thomas H.; Vickers-Rich, Patricia; Hall, Mike

    2012-01-01

    hallmark ‘Gondwanan’ fauna of South America and Africa may therefore reflect climate-driven provinciality, not vicariant evolution driven by continental fragmentation. However, vicariance may still be detected at lower phylogenetic levels. PMID:22615916

  9. Managing uncertainty in climate-driven ecological models to inform adaptation to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeremy S. Littell; Donald McKenzie; Becky K. Kerns; Samuel Cushman; Charles G. Shaw

    2011-01-01

    The impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems are likely to require changes in forest planning and natural resource management. Changes in tree growth, disturbance extent and intensity, and eventually species distributions are expected. In natural resource management and planning, ecosystem models are typically used to provide a "best estimate" about how...

  10. Climate-driven trends in the occurrence of major floods across North America and Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Whitfield, Paul H.; Burn, Donald H.; Hannaford, Jamie; Renard, Benjamin; Stahl, Kerstin; Fleig, Anne K.; Madsen, Henrik; Mediero, Luis; Korhonen, Johanna; Murphy, Conor; Crochet, Philippe; Wilson, Donna

    2016-04-01

    Every year river floods cause enormous damage around the world. Recent major floods in North America and Europe, for example, have received much press, with some concluding that these floods are more frequent in recent years as a result of anthropogenic warming. There has been considerable scientific effort invested in establishing whether observed flood records show evidence of trends or variability in flood frequency, and to determine whether these patterns can be linked to climatic changes. However, the river catchments used in many published studies are influenced by direct human alteration such as reservoir regulation and urbanisation, which can confound the interpretation of climate-driven variability. Furthermore, a majority of previous studies have analysed changes in low magnitude floods, such as the annual peak flow, at a national scale. Few studies are known that have analysed changes in large floods (greater than 25-year floods) on a continental scale. To fill this research gap, we present a study analysing flood flows from reference hydrologic networks (RHNs) or RHN-like gauges across a large study domain embracing North America and much of Europe. RHNs comprise gauging stations with minimally disturbed catchment conditions, which have a near-natural flow regime and provide good quality data; RHN analyses thus allow hydro-climatic variability to be distinguished from direct artificial disturbances or data inhomogeneities. One of the key innovations in this study is the definition of an RHN-like network consisting of 1204 catchments on a continental scale. The network incorporates existing, well-established RHNs in Canada, the US, the UK, Ireland and Norway, alongside RHN-like catchments from Europe (France, Switzerland, Iceland, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Spain), which have been incorporated in the network following a major effort to ensure RHN-like status of candidate gauges through consultation with local experts. As the aim of the study is to examine

  11. Predicting climate-driven regime shifts versus rebound potential in coral reefs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, Nicholas A J; Jennings, Simon; MacNeil, M Aaron; Mouillot, David; Wilson, Shaun K

    2015-02-05

    Climate-induced coral bleaching is among the greatest current threats to coral reefs, causing widespread loss of live coral cover. Conditions under which reefs bounce back from bleaching events or shift from coral to algal dominance are unknown, making it difficult to predict and plan for differing reef responses under climate change. Here we document and predict long-term reef responses to a major climate-induced coral bleaching event that caused unprecedented region-wide mortality of Indo-Pacific corals. Following loss of >90% live coral cover, 12 of 21 reefs recovered towards pre-disturbance live coral states, while nine reefs underwent regime shifts to fleshy macroalgae. Functional diversity of associated reef fish communities shifted substantially following bleaching, returning towards pre-disturbance structure on recovering reefs, while becoming progressively altered on regime shifting reefs. We identified threshold values for a range of factors that accurately predicted ecosystem response to the bleaching event. Recovery was favoured when reefs were structurally complex and in deeper water, when density of juvenile corals and herbivorous fishes was relatively high and when nutrient loads were low. Whether reefs were inside no-take marine reserves had no bearing on ecosystem trajectory. Although conditions governing regime shift or recovery dynamics were diverse, pre-disturbance quantification of simple factors such as structural complexity and water depth accurately predicted ecosystem trajectories. These findings foreshadow the likely divergent but predictable outcomes for reef ecosystems in response to climate change, thus guiding improved management and adaptation.

  12. Abruptness of Cascade Failures in Power Grids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pahwa, Sakshi; Scoglio, Caterina; Scala, Antonio

    2014-01-01

    Electric power-systems are one of the most important critical infrastructures. In recent years, they have been exposed to extreme stress due to the increasing demand, the introduction of distributed renewable energy sources, and the development of extensive interconnections. We investigate the phenomenon of abrupt breakdown of an electric power-system under two scenarios: load growth (mimicking the ever-increasing customer demand) and power fluctuations (mimicking the effects of renewable sources). Our results on real, realistic and synthetic networks indicate that increasing the system size causes breakdowns to become more abrupt; in fact, mapping the system to a solvable statistical-physics model indicates the occurrence of a first order transition in the large size limit. Such an enhancement for the systemic risk failures (black-outs) with increasing network size is an effect that should be considered in the current projects aiming to integrate national power-grids into “super-grids”. PMID:24424239

  13. Managing consequences of climate-driven species redistribution requires integration of ecology, conservation and social science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonebrake, Timothy C; Brown, Christopher J; Bell, Johann D; Blanchard, Julia L; Chauvenet, Alienor; Champion, Curtis; Chen, I-Ching; Clark, Timothy D; Colwell, Robert K; Danielsen, Finn; Dell, Anthony I; Donelson, Jennifer M; Evengård, Birgitta; Ferrier, Simon; Frusher, Stewart; Garcia, Raquel A; Griffis, Roger B; Hobday, Alistair J; Jarzyna, Marta A; Lee, Emma; Lenoir, Jonathan; Linnetved, Hlif; Martin, Victoria Y; McCormack, Phillipa C; McDonald, Jan; McDonald-Madden, Eve; Mitchell, Nicola; Mustonen, Tero; Pandolfi, John M; Pettorelli, Nathalie; Possingham, Hugh; Pulsifer, Peter; Reynolds, Mark; Scheffers, Brett R; Sorte, Cascade J B; Strugnell, Jan M; Tuanmu, Mao-Ning; Twiname, Samantha; Vergés, Adriana; Villanueva, Cecilia; Wapstra, Erik; Wernberg, Thomas; Pecl, Gretta T

    2018-02-01

    Climate change is driving a pervasive global redistribution of the planet's species. Species redistribution poses new questions for the study of ecosystems, conservation science and human societies that require a coordinated and integrated approach. Here we review recent progress, key gaps and strategic directions in this nascent research area, emphasising emerging themes in species redistribution biology, the importance of understanding underlying drivers and the need to anticipate novel outcomes of changes in species ranges. We highlight that species redistribution has manifest implications across multiple temporal and spatial scales and from genes to ecosystems. Understanding range shifts from ecological, physiological, genetic and biogeographical perspectives is essential for informing changing paradigms in conservation science and for designing conservation strategies that incorporate changing population connectivity and advance adaptation to climate change. Species redistributions present challenges for human well-being, environmental management and sustainable development. By synthesising recent approaches, theories and tools, our review establishes an interdisciplinary foundation for the development of future research on species redistribution. Specifically, we demonstrate how ecological, conservation and social research on species redistribution can best be achieved by working across disciplinary boundaries to develop and implement solutions to climate change challenges. Future studies should therefore integrate existing and complementary scientific frameworks while incorporating social science and human-centred approaches. Finally, we emphasise that the best science will not be useful unless more scientists engage with managers, policy makers and the public to develop responsible and socially acceptable options for the global challenges arising from species redistributions. © 2017 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

  14. Human population growth offsets climate-driven increase in woody vegetation in sub-Saharan Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brandt, Martin Stefan; Rasmussen, Kjeld; Peñuelas, Josep

    2017-01-01

    The rapidly growing human population in sub-Saharan Africa generates increasing demand for agricultural land and forest products, which presumably leads to deforestation. Conversely, a greening of African drylands has been reported, but this has been difficult to associate with changes in woody...... an increase in woody cover largely in drylands, and 11% had a decrease (2,150,000 km2), mostly in humid zones. Increases in woody cover were associated with low population growth, and were driven by increases in CO2 in the humid zones and by increases in precipitation in drylands, whereas decreases in woody...... cover were associated with high population growth. The spatially distinct pattern of these opposing trends reflects, first, the natural response of vegetation to precipitation and atmospheric CO2, and second, deforestation in humid areas, minor in size but important for ecosystem services...

  15. Cardiovascular Disease in Relation to Placental Abruption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ananth, Cande V.; Hansen, Anne Vinkel; Williams, Michelle A.

    2017-01-01

    Background: Cardiovascular (CVD) complications stemming from vascular dysfunction have been widely explored in the setting of preeclampsia. However, the impact of abruption, a strong indicator of microvascular disturbance, on the risk of CVD mortality and morbidity remains poorly characterised...... person-years, respectively (HR 1.5, 95% CI 1.4, 1.8). The increased risks were evident for ischaemic heart disease, acute myocardial infarction, hypertensive heart disease, non-rheumatic valvular disease, and congestive heart failure. Conclusions: This study shows increased hazards of CVD morbidity...

  16. Abrupt relaxation in high-spin molecules

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, C.-R.; Cheng, T.C.

    2000-01-01

    Mean-field model suggests that the rate of resonant quantum tunneling in high-spin molecules is not only field-dependent but also time-dependent. The relaxation-assisted resonant tunneling in high-spin molecules produces an abrupt magnetization change during relaxation. When the applied field is very close to the resonant field, a time-dependent interaction field gradually shifts the energies of different collective spin states, and magnetization tunneling is observed as two energies of the spin states coincide

  17. Climate-driven coral reorganisation influences aggressive behaviour in juvenile coral-reef fishes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kok, Judith E.; Graham, Nicholas A. J.; Hoogenboom, Mia O.

    2016-06-01

    Globally, habitat degradation is altering the abundance and diversity of species in a variety of ecosystems. This study aimed to determine how habitat degradation, in terms of changing coral composition under climate change, affected abundance, species richness and aggressive behaviour of juveniles of three damselfishes ( Pomacentrus moluccensis, P. amboinensis and Dischistodus perspicillatus, in order of decreasing reliance on coral). Patch reefs were constructed to simulate two types of reefs: present-day reefs that are vulnerable to climate-induced coral bleaching, and reefs with more bleaching-robust coral taxa, thereby simulating the likely future of coral reefs under a warming climate. Fish communities were allowed to establish naturally on the reefs during the summer recruitment period. Climate-robust reefs had lower total species richness of coral-reef fishes than climate-vulnerable reefs, but total fish abundance was not significantly different between reef types (pooled across all species and life-history stages). The nature of aggressive interactions, measured as the number of aggressive chases, varied according to coral composition; on climate-robust reefs, juveniles used the substratum less often to avoid aggression from competitors, and interspecific aggression became relatively more frequent than intraspecific aggression for juveniles of the coral-obligate P. moluccensis. This study highlights the importance of coral composition as a determinant of behaviour and diversity of coral-reef fishes.

  18. Human population growth offsets climate-driven increase in woody vegetation in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, Martin; Rasmussen, Kjeld; Peñuelas, Josep; Tian, Feng; Schurgers, Guy; Verger, Aleixandre; Mertz, Ole; Palmer, John R B; Fensholt, Rasmus

    2017-03-06

    The rapidly growing human population in sub-Saharan Africa generates increasing demand for agricultural land and forest products, which presumably leads to deforestation. Conversely, a greening of African drylands has been reported, but this has been difficult to associate with changes in woody vegetation. There is thus an incomplete understanding of how woody vegetation responds to socio-economic and environmental change. Here we used a passive microwave Earth observation data set to document two different trends in land area with woody cover for 1992-2011: 36% of the land area (6,870,000 km 2 ) had an increase in woody cover largely in drylands, and 11% had a decrease (2,150,000 km 2 ), mostly in humid zones. Increases in woody cover were associated with low population growth, and were driven by increases in CO 2 in the humid zones and by increases in precipitation in drylands, whereas decreases in woody cover were associated with high population growth. The spatially distinct pattern of these opposing trends reflects, first, the natural response of vegetation to precipitation and atmospheric CO 2 , and second, deforestation in humid areas, minor in size but important for ecosystem services, such as biodiversity and carbon stocks. This nuanced picture of changes in woody cover challenges widely held views of a general and ongoing reduction of the woody vegetation in Africa.

  19. A First Regional-Scale Estimate of Climate-Driven Terrestrial Carbon Export in Boreal Catchments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nazzareno Diodato

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Highly dynamic hydro-geomorphic processes are known to drive exports of carbon (C from river basins, but are not yet fully understood. Within this study, we simulated total organic carbon (TOC exports at the outlet of Lake Simojärvi in the Gulf of Bothnia (Finland with a parsimonious hydrological model. With thorough consideration of the dependence of erosion and sediment transport processes on seasonal precipitation rates, a satisfactory agreement was obtained between modelling and experimental observations (1962–2005. This provided confidence in the capability of the parsimonious model to represent temporal and spatial export dynamics. In the period 1860–2014, TOC export at the outlet of Lake Simojärvi was estimated to be highest on average (~5.5 Mg km−2·year−1 over 1974–2014 while the lowest TOC export (~2.5 Mg km−2·year−1 was estimated in 1860–1918 (with high levels of interannual-to-multidecadal variation. Regional simulations indicate that TOC increased in recent decades (on average, 4–5 Mg km−2·year−1 in 1974–2014 against ~3 Mg km−2·year−1 in 1940–1973 in northern Scandinavia and Finland. Warming-induced variability of TOC (which depends on precipitation patterns may have altered the rates of C exchanges in aquatic ecosystems over recent years. TOC exports may continue to increase in boreal catchments with increasing temperatures as represented by future projections.

  20. Potential ecological and economic consequences of climate-driven agricultural and silvicultural transformations in central Siberia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tchebakova, Nadezhda M.; Zander, Evgeniya V.; Pyzhev, Anton I.; Parfenova, Elena I.; Soja, Amber J.

    2014-05-01

    Increased warming predicted from general circulation models (GCMs) by the end of the century is expected to dramatically impact Siberian forests. Both natural climate-change-caused disturbance (weather, wildfire, infestation) and anthropogenic disturbance (legal/illegal logging) has increased, and their impact on Siberian boreal forest has been mounting over the last three decades. The Siberian BioClimatic Model (SiBCliM) was used to simulate Siberian forests, and the resultant maps show a severely decreased forest that has shifted northwards and a changed composition. Predicted dryer climates would enhance the risks of high fire danger and thawing permafrost, both of which challenge contemporary ecosystems. Our current goal is to evaluate the ecological and economic consequences of climate warming, to optimise economic loss/gain effects in forestry versus agriculture, to question the relative economic value of supporting forestry, agriculture or a mixed agro-forestry at the southern forest border in central Siberia predicted to undergo the most noticeable landcover and landuse changes. We developed and used forest and agricultural bioclimatic models to predict forest shifts; novel tree species and their climatypes are introduced in a warmer climate and/or potential novel agriculture are introduced with a potential variety of crops by the end of the century. We applied two strategies to estimate climate change effects, motivated by forest disturbance. One is a genetic means of assisting trees and forests to be harmonized with a changing climate by developing management strategies for seed transfer to locations that are best ecologically suited to the genotypes in future climates. The second strategy is the establishment of agricultural lands in new forest-steppe and steppe habitats, because the forests would retreat northwards. Currently, food, forage, and biofuel crops primarily reside in the steppe and forest-steppe zones which are known to have favorable

  1. Paleoclimate from ice cores : abrupt climate change and the prolonged Holocene

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    White, J.W.C.

    2001-01-01

    Ice cores provide valuable information about the Earth's past climates and past environments. They can also help in predicting future climates and the nature of climate change. Recent findings in ice cores have shown large and abrupt climate changes in the past. This paper addressed abrupt climate changes and the peculiar nature of the Holocene. An abrupt climate change is a shift of 5 degrees C in mean annual temperature in less than 50 years. This is considered to be the most threatening aspect of potential future climate change since it leaves very little time for adaptation by humans or any other part of the Earth's ecosystem. This paper also discussed the arrival of the next glacial period. In the past 50 years, scientists have recognized the importance of the Earth's orbit around the sun in pacing the occurrence of large ice sheets. The timing of orbital forcing suggests that the Earth is overdue for the next major glaciation. The reason for this anomaly was discussed. Abrupt climate shifts seem to be caused by mode changes in sensitive points in the climate system, such as the North Atlantic Deep Water Formation and its impact on sea ice cover in the North Atlantic. These changes have been observed in ice cores in Greenland but they are not restricted to Greenland. Evidence from Antarctic ice cores suggest that abrupt climate change may also occur in the Southern Hemisphere. The Vostok ice core in Antarctica indicates that the 11,000 year long interglacial period that we are in right now is longer than the previous four interglacial periods. The Holocene epoch is unique because both methane and carbon dioxide rise in the last 6,000 years, an atypical response from these greenhouse gases during an interglacial period. It was suggested that the rise in methane can be attributed to human activities. 13 refs., 2 figs

  2. Modeled seasonality of glacial abrupt climate events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flueckiger, Jacqueline [Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States); Environmental Physics, Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, ETH Zuerich, Zurich (Switzerland); Knutti, Reto [Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zuerich, Zurich (Switzerland); White, James W.C. [Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States); Renssen, Hans [Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2008-11-15

    Greenland ice cores, as well as many other paleo-archives from the northern hemisphere, recorded a series of 25 warm interstadial events, the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, during the last glacial period. We use the three-dimensional coupled global ocean-atmosphere-sea ice model ECBILT-CLIO and force it with freshwater input into the North Atlantic to simulate abrupt glacial climate events, which we use as analogues for D-O events. We focus our analysis on the Northern Hemisphere. The simulated events show large differences in the regional and seasonal distribution of the temperature and precipitation changes. While the temperature changes in high northern latitudes and in the North Atlantic region are dominated by winter changes, the largest temperature increases in most other land regions are seen in spring. Smallest changes over land are found during the summer months. Our model simulations also demonstrate that the temperature and precipitation change patterns for different intensifications of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation are not linear. The extent of the transitions varies, and local non-linearities influence the amplitude of the annual mean response as well as the response in different seasons. Implications for the interpretation of paleo-records are discussed. (orig.)

  3. Evaluating the Performance of a Climate-Driven Mortality Model during Heat Waves and Cold Spells in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Rachel; Ballester, Joan; Creswick, James; Robine, Jean-Marie; Herrmann, François R.; Rodó, Xavier

    2015-01-01

    The impact of climate change on human health is a serious concern. In particular, changes in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and cold spells are of high relevance in terms of mortality and morbidity. This demonstrates the urgent need for reliable early-warning systems to help authorities prepare and respond to emergency situations. In this study, we evaluate the performance of a climate-driven mortality model to provide probabilistic predictions of exceeding emergency mortality thresholds for heat wave and cold spell scenarios. Daily mortality data corresponding to 187 NUTS2 regions across 16 countries in Europe were obtained from 1998–2003. Data were aggregated to 54 larger regions in Europe, defined according to similarities in population structure and climate. Location-specific average mortality rates, at given temperature intervals over the time period, were modelled to account for the increased mortality observed during both high and low temperature extremes and differing comfort temperatures between regions. Model parameters were estimated in a Bayesian framework, in order to generate probabilistic simulations of mortality across Europe for time periods of interest. For the heat wave scenario (1–15 August 2003), the model was successfully able to anticipate the occurrence or non-occurrence of mortality rates exceeding the emergency threshold (75th percentile of the mortality distribution) for 89% of the 54 regions, given a probability decision threshold of 70%. For the cold spell scenario (1–15 January 2003), mortality events in 69% of the regions were correctly anticipated with a probability decision threshold of 70%. By using a more conservative decision threshold of 30%, this proportion increased to 87%. Overall, the model performed better for the heat wave scenario. By replacing observed temperature data in the model with forecast temperature, from state-of-the-art European forecasting systems, probabilistic mortality predictions could

  4. Evaluating the Performance of a Climate-Driven Mortality Model during Heat Waves and Cold Spells in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel Lowe

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The impact of climate change on human health is a serious concern. In particular, changes in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and cold spells are of high relevance in terms of mortality and morbidity. This demonstrates the urgent need for reliable early-warning systems to help authorities prepare and respond to emergency situations. In this study, we evaluate the performance of a climate-driven mortality model to provide probabilistic predictions of exceeding emergency mortality thresholds for heat wave and cold spell scenarios. Daily mortality data corresponding to 187 NUTS2 regions across 16 countries in Europe were obtained from 1998–2003. Data were aggregated to 54 larger regions in Europe, defined according to similarities in population structure and climate. Location-specific average mortality rates, at given temperature intervals over the time period, were modelled to account for the increased mortality observed during both high and low temperature extremes and differing comfort temperatures between regions. Model parameters were estimated in a Bayesian framework, in order to generate probabilistic simulations of mortality across Europe for time periods of interest. For the heat wave scenario (1–15 August 2003, the model was successfully able to anticipate the occurrence or non-occurrence of mortality rates exceeding the emergency threshold (75th percentile of the mortality distribution for 89% of the 54 regions, given a probability decision threshold of 70%. For the cold spell scenario (1–15 January 2003, mortality events in 69% of the regions were correctly anticipated with a probability decision threshold of 70%. By using a more conservative decision threshold of 30%, this proportion increased to 87%. Overall, the model performed better for the heat wave scenario. By replacing observed temperature data in the model with forecast temperature, from state-of-the-art European forecasting systems, probabilistic mortality

  5. Comparing abrupt and gradual smoking cessation: a randomized trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Etter, Jean-François

    2011-11-01

    To compare abrupt and gradual smoking cessation. Randomized trial and observational study, Internet, 2007-2010. Smokers with no strong preference for abrupt or gradual quitting were randomly assigned to quitting immediately (n=472), or to gradually reducing their cigarette consumption over 2 weeks and then quit (n=502). Smokers who strongly preferred to quit abruptly were instructed to do so immediately (n=2456), those who strongly preferred gradual were instructed to reduce their cigarette consumption over 2 weeks, then quit (n=1801). Follow-up was conducted 4 weeks after target quit dates. Those who preferred abrupt quitting were the most motivated to quit and the most confident in their ability to quit. At follow-up, quit rates were 16% in those who preferred abrupt cessation, 7% in those who preferred gradual cessation and 9% in those who had no preference (pmotivation to quit and confidence in ability to quit: those who had low levels of motivation or low levels of confidence were more likely to quit at follow-up if they preferred and used abrupt rather than gradual. In those who had no strong preference for either method, abrupt and gradual produced similar results. Those who preferred and used the abrupt method were more likely to quit than those who preferred and used the gradual method, in particular when they had low motivation and confidence. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Indications of anti-HY immunity in recurrent placental abruption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Henriette Svarre; Mogensen, Marie; Steffensen, Rudi

    2007-01-01

    PROBLEM: Placental abruption is a potential life-threatening condition for both the fetus and the mother, being significantly more common in pregnancies with male fetuses. The pathogenesis of placental abruption remains unknown. However, some recent reports point toward a maternal immune response...... the fetus died. Seven patients (88%) had first-born boys, and 15 abruptions (68%) involved male fetuses. All patients with a first-born boy, except one, had HLA-class II alleles known to restrict CD4+ T-cell responses against male-specific minor histocompatibility (HY)-antigens (HLA-DRB1*15, HLA-DRB3...... abruption is exclusively almost preceded by the birth of a boy and the majority of patients have HLA-class II known to restrict CD4 T-cell reactions against HY-antigens. This indicates that maternal immunological responses against HY-antigens play a role in recurrent placental abruption. Udgivelsesdato...

  7. Risk of placental abruption in relation to migraines and headaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ananth Cande V

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Migraine, a common chronic-intermittent disorder of idiopathic origin characterized by severe debilitating headaches and autonomic nervous system dysfunction, and placental abruption, the premature separation of the placenta, share many common pathophysiological characteristics. Moreover, endothelial dysfunction, platelet activation, hypercoagulation, and inflammation are common to both disorders. We assessed risk of placental abruption in relation to maternal history of migraine before and during pregnancy in Peruvian women. Methods Cases were 375 women with pregnancies complicated by placental abruption, and controls were 368 women without an abruption. During in-person interviews conducted following delivery, women were asked if they had physician-diagnosed migraine, and they were asked questions that allowed headaches and migraine to be classified according to criteria established by the International Headache Society. Logistic regression procedures were used to calculate odds ratios (aOR and 95% confidence intervals (CI adjusted for confounders. Results Overall, a lifetime history of any headaches or migraine was associated with an increased odds of placental abruption (aOR = 1.60; 95% CI 1.16-2.20. A lifetime history of migraine was associated with a 2.14-fold increased odds of placental abruption (aOR = 2.14; 95% CI 1.22-3.75. The odds of placental abruption was 2.11 (95% CI 1.00-4.45 for migraineurs without aura; and 1.59 (95% 0.70-3.62 for migraineurs with aura. A lifetime history of tension-type headache was also increased with placental abruption (aOR = 1.61; 95% CI 1.01-2.57. Conclusions This study adds placental abruption to a growing list of pregnancy complications associated with maternal headache/migraine disorders. Nevertheless, prospective cohort studies are needed to more rigorously evaluate the extent to which migraines and/or its treatments are associated with the occurrence of placental abruption.

  8. The resilience of postglacial hunter-gatherers to abrupt climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blockley, Simon; Candy, Ian; Matthews, Ian; Langdon, Pete; Langdon, Cath; Palmer, Adrian; Lincoln, Paul; Abrook, Ashley; Taylor, Barry; Conneller, Chantal; Bayliss, Alex; MacLeod, Alison; Deeprose, Laura; Darvill, Chris; Kearney, Rebecca; Beavan, Nancy; Staff, Richard; Bamforth, Michael; Taylor, Maisie; Milner, Nicky

    2018-05-01

    Understanding the resilience of early societies to climate change is an essential part of exploring the environmental sensitivity of human populations. There is significant interest in the role of abrupt climate events as a driver of early Holocene human activity, but there are very few well-dated records directly compared with local climate archives. Here, we present evidence from the internationally important Mesolithic site of Star Carr showing occupation during the early Holocene, which is directly compared with a high-resolution palaeoclimate record from neighbouring lake beds. We show that-once established-there was intensive human activity at the site for several hundred years when the community was subject to multiple, severe, abrupt climate events that impacted air temperatures, the landscape and the ecosystem of the region. However, these results show that occupation and activity at the site persisted regardless of the environmental stresses experienced by this society. The Star Carr population displayed a high level of resilience to climate change, suggesting that postglacial populations were not necessarily held hostage to the flickering switch of climate change. Instead, we show that local, intrinsic changes in the wetland environment were more significant in determining human activity than the large-scale abrupt early Holocene climate events.

  9. Towards Greenland Glaciation: cumulative or abrupt transition?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramstein, Gilles; Tan, Ning; Ladant, Jean-baptiste; Dumas, Christophe; Contoux, Camille

    2017-04-01

    During the mid-Pliocene warming period (3-3.3 Ma BP), the global annual mean temperatures inferred by data and model studies were 2-3° warmer than pre-industrial values. Accordingly, Greenland ice sheet volume is supposed to reach at the most, only half of that of present-day [Haywood et al. 2010]. Around 2.7-2.6 Ma BP, just ˜ 500 kyr after the warming peak of mid-Pliocene, the Greenland ice sheet has reached its full size [Lunt et al. 2008]. A crucial question concerns the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet from half to full size during the 3 - 2.5 Ma period. Data show a decreasing trend of atmospheric CO2 concentration from 3 Ma to 2.5 Ma [Seki et al.2010; Bartoli et al. 2011; Martinez et al. 2015]. However, a recent study [Contoux et al. 2015] suggests that a lowering of CO2 is not sufficient to initiate a perennial glaciation on Greenland and must be combined with low summer insolation to preserve the ice sheet during insolation maxima. This suggests rather a cumulative process than an abrupt event. In order to diagnose the evolution of the ice sheet build-up, we carry on, for the first time, a transient simulation of climate and ice sheet evolutions from 3 Ma to 2.5 Ma. This strategy enables us to investigate the waxing and waning of the ice sheet during several orbital cycles. We use a tri-dimensional interpolation method designed by Ladant et al. (2014), which allows the evolution of CO2 concentration and of orbital parameters, and the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet size to be taken into account. By interpolating climatic snapshot simulations ran with various possible combinations of CO2, orbits and ice sheet sizes, we can build a continuous climatic forcing that is then used to provide 500 kyrs-long ice sheet simulations. With such a tool, we may offer a physically based answer to different CO2 reconstructions scenarios and analyse which one is the most consistent with Greenland ice sheet buildup.

  10. Abrupt climate change in the computer: Is it real?

    OpenAIRE

    Stocker, Thomas F.; Marchal, Olivier

    2000-01-01

    Models suggest that dramatic changes in the ocean circulation are responsible for abrupt climate changes during the last ice age and may possibly alter the relative climate stability of the last 10,000 years.

  11. The Role of the Tropics in Abrupt Climate Changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fedorov, Alexey [Yale University

    2013-12-07

    Topics addressed include: abrupt climate changes and ocean circulation in the tropics; what controls the ocean thermal structure in the tropics; a permanent El Niño in paleoclimates; the energetics of the tropical ocean.

  12. Chemically abrupt interface between Ce oxide and Fe films

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, H.G.; Lee, D.; Kim, S.; Kim, S.G.; Hwang, Chanyong

    2005-01-01

    A chemically abrupt Fe/Ce oxide interface can be formed by initial oxidation of an Fe film followed by deposition of Ce metal. Once a Ce oxide layer is formed on top of Fe, it acts a passivation barrier for oxygen diffusion. Further deposition of Ce metal followed by its oxidation preserve the abrupt interface between Ce oxide and Fe films. The Fe and Ce oxidation states have been monitored at each stage using X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy

  13. Impact of an abrupt cooling event on interglacial methane emissions in northern peatlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Zürcher

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Rapid changes in atmospheric methane (CH4, temperature and precipitation are documented by Greenland ice core data both for glacial times (the so called Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O events as well as for a cooling event in the early Holocene (the 8.2 kyr event. The onsets of D-O warm events are paralleled by abrupt increases in CH4 by up to 250 ppb in a few decades. Vice versa, the 8.2 kyr event is accompanied by an intermittent decrease in CH4 of about 80 ppb over 150 yr. The abrupt CH4 changes are thought to mainly originate from source emission variations in tropical and boreal wet ecosystems, but complex process oriented bottom-up model estimates of the changes in these ecosystems during rapid climate changes are still missing. Here we present simulations of CH4 emissions from northern peatlands with the LPJ-Bern dynamic global vegetation model. The model represents CH4 production and oxidation in soils and transport by ebullition, through plant aerenchyma, and by diffusion. Parameters are tuned to represent site emission data as well as inversion-based estimates of northern wetland emissions. The model is forced with climate input data from freshwater hosing experiments using the NCAR CSM1.4 climate model to simulate an abrupt cooling event. A concentration reduction of ~10 ppb is simulated per degree K change of mean northern hemispheric surface temperature in peatlands. Peatland emissions are equally sensitive to both changes in temperature and in precipitation. If simulated changes are taken as an analogy to the 8.2 kyr event, boreal peatland emissions alone could only explain 23% of the 80 ppb decline in atmospheric methane concentration. This points to a significant contribution to source changes from low latitude and tropical wetlands to this event.

  14. Controls on the abruptness of gravel-sand transitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venditti, J. G.; Church, M. A.; Lamb, M. P.; Domarad, N.; Rennie, C. D.

    2014-12-01

    As gravel-bedded rivers fine downstream, they characteristically exhibit an abrupt transition from gravel- to sand-bed. This is the only abrupt transition in grain-size that occurs in the fluvial system and has attracted considerable attention. A number of competing theories have been proposed to account for the abruptness of the transition, including base-level control, attrition of ~10mm gravel to produce sand, and sediment sorting processes. The prevailing theory for the emergence of abrupt transitions is size selective sorting of bimodal sediment wherein gravel deposits due to downstream declining shear stress, fining the bedload until a sand-bed emerges. We explored this hypothesis by examining grain-size, shear stress, gravel mobility and sand suspension thresholds through the gravel-sand transition (GST) of the Fraser River, British Columbia. The Fraser GST is an arrested gravel wedge with patches of gravel downstream of the wedge forming a diffuse extension. There is an abrupt change in bed slope through the transition that leads to an abrupt change in shear stress. The GST, bed-slope change and backwater caused by the ocean are all coincident spatially, which enhances the sharpness of the GST. Interestingly, the bimodal reach of the river occurs downstream of the GST and exhibits no downstream gradients in shear stress, suspended sediment flux, gravel mobility or sand suspension thresholds. This calls into question the prevailing theory for the emergence of an abrupt GST by size selective sorting. We provide evidence, both empirical and theoretical, that suggests the emergence of an abrupt GST is caused by rapid deposition of sand when fine gravel deposits. We argue that the emergence of gravel-sand transitions is a consequence of gravel-bedded rivers adopting a steeper slope than sand-bedded rivers. The abruptness arises because the bed slope required to convey the gravel load fixes the distal location of a terminal gravel wedge, and once the river has

  15. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Ecosystems

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Ecosystems provides data and information on the extent and classification of ecosystems circa 2000, including coastal,...

  16. How will coral reef fish communities respond to climate-driven disturbances? Insight from landscape-scale perturbations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adam, Thomas C; Brooks, Andrew J; Holbrook, Sally J; Schmitt, Russell J; Washburn, Libe; Bernardi, Giacomo

    2014-09-01

    Global climate change is rapidly altering disturbance regimes in many ecosystems including coral reefs, yet the long-term impacts of these changes on ecosystem structure and function are difficult to predict. A major ecosystem service provided by coral reefs is the provisioning of physical habitat for other organisms, and consequently, many of the effects of climate change on coral reefs will be mediated by their impacts on habitat structure. Therefore, there is an urgent need to understand the independent and combined effects of coral mortality and loss of physical habitat on reef-associated biota. Here, we use a unique series of events affecting the coral reefs around the Pacific island of Moorea, French Polynesia to differentiate between the impacts of coral mortality and the degradation of physical habitat on the structure of reef fish communities. We found that, by removing large amounts of physical habitat, a tropical cyclone had larger impacts on reef fish communities than an outbreak of coral-eating sea stars that caused widespread coral mortality but left the physical structure intact. In addition, the impacts of declining structural complexity on reef fish assemblages accelerated as structure became increasingly rare. Structure provided by dead coral colonies can take up to decades to erode following coral mortality, and, consequently, our results suggest that predictions based on short-term studies are likely to grossly underestimate the long-term impacts of coral decline on reef fish communities.

  17. Phase Memory Preserving Harmonics from Abruptly Autofocusing Beams.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koulouklidis, Anastasios D; Papazoglou, Dimitris G; Fedorov, Vladimir Yu; Tzortzakis, Stelios

    2017-12-01

    We demonstrate both theoretically and experimentally that the harmonics from abruptly autofocusing ring-Airy beams present a surprising property: They preserve the phase distribution of the fundamental beam. Consequently, this "phase memory" imparts to the harmonics the abrupt autofocusing behavior, while, under certain conditions, their foci coincide in space with the one of the fundamental. Experiments agree well with our theoretical estimates and detailed numerical calculations. Our findings open the way for the use of such beams and their harmonics in strong field science.

  18. Regime shifts and resilience in China's coastal ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ke

    2016-02-01

    Regime shift often results in large, abrupt, and persistent changes in the provision of ecosystem services and can therefore have significant impacts on human wellbeing. Understanding regime shifts has profound implications for ecosystem recovery and management. China's coastal ecosystems have experienced substantial deterioration within the past decades, at a scale and speed the world has never seen before. Yet, information about this coastal ecosystem change from a dynamics perspective is quite limited. In this review, I synthesize existing information on coastal ecosystem regime shifts in China and discuss their interactions and cascading effects. The accumulation of regime shifts in China's coastal ecosystems suggests that the desired system resilience has been profoundly eroded, increasing the potential of abrupt shifts to undesirable states at a larger scale, especially given multiple escalating pressures. Policy and management strategies need to incorporate resilience approaches in order to cope with future challenges and avoid major losses in China's coastal ecosystem services.

  19. Mid- to late Holocene climate-driven regime shifts inferred from diatom, ostracod and stable isotope records from Lake Son Kol (Central Tian Shan, Kyrgyzstan)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwarz, Anja; Turner, Falko; Lauterbach, Stefan; Plessen, Birgit; Krahn, Kim J.; Glodniok, Sven; Mischke, Steffen; Stebich, Martina; Witt, Roman; Mingram, Jens; Schwalb, Antje

    2017-12-01

    -mode. Thus, this study identifies climate fluctuations as the main driver for hydrological regime shifts in Son Kol controlling physicochemical conditions and consequently causing abrupt species assemblage changes. This emphasizes the importance of multi-proxy approaches to identify triggers, thresholds and cascades of aquatic ecosystem transformations.

  20. Investigating Flow Features Near Abrupt Topography in the Mariana Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-30

    1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Investigating Flow Features Near Abrupt Topography in...waves generated by flow over topography and mesoscale eddies generated by flow past islands. Having identified the prime locations in the region for such

  1. Abrupt or gradual increases in photoperiod for broiler breeders ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    There were no significant differences between the two lighting groups for age at sexual maturity, total egg production, egg mass output, mean egg weight to or body weight at 60 weeks. However, the birds given a single abrupt increment had a higher peak rate of lay whilst those given a gradual increase in daylength had ...

  2. Cesarean Delivery for a Life‑threatening Preterm Placental Abruption

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Following a failed induction of labor with a deteriorating maternal condition despite resuscitation, emergency cesarean delivery was offered with good maternal outcome. Cesarean delivery could avert further disease progression and possible maternal death in cases of severe preterm placental abruption where vaginal ...

  3. Ecosystem Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecosystem goods and services are the many life-sustaining benefits we receive from nature and contribute to environmental and human health and well-being. Ecosystem-focused research will develop methods to measure ecosystem goods and services.

  4. Sap-feeding insects on forest trees along latitudinal gradients in northern Europe: a climate-driven patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozlov, Mikhail V; Stekolshchikov, Andrey V; Söderman, Guy; Labina, Eugenia S; Zverev, Vitali; Zvereva, Elena L

    2015-01-01

    Knowledge of the latitudinal patterns in biotic interactions, and especially in herbivory, is crucial for understanding the mechanisms that govern ecosystem functioning and for predicting their responses to climate change. We used sap-feeding insects as a model group to test the hypotheses that the strength of plant-herbivore interactions in boreal forests decreases with latitude and that this latitudinal pattern is driven primarily by midsummer temperatures. We used a replicated sampling design and quantitatively collected and identified all sap-feeding insects from four species of forest trees along five latitudinal gradients (750-1300 km in length, ten sites in each gradient) in northern Europe (59 to 70°N and 10 to 60°E) during 2008-2011. Similar decreases in diversity of sap-feeding insects with latitude were observed in all gradients during all study years. The sap-feeder load (i.e. insect biomass per unit of foliar biomass) decreased with latitude in typical summers, but increased in an exceptionally hot summer and was independent of latitude during a warm summer. Analysis of combined data from all sites and years revealed dome-shaped relationships between the loads of sap-feeders and midsummer temperatures, peaking at 17 °C in Picea abies, at 19.5 °C in Pinus sylvestris and Betula pubescens and at 22 °C in B. pendula. From these relationships, we predict that the losses of forest trees to sap-feeders will increase by 0-45% of the current level in southern boreal forests and by 65-210% in subarctic forests with a 1 °C increase in summer temperatures. The observed relationships between temperatures and the loads of sap-feeders differ between the coniferous and deciduous tree species. We conclude that climate warming will not only increase plant losses to sap-feeding insects, especially in subarctic forests, but can also alter plant-plant interactions, thereby affecting both the productivity and the structure of future forest ecosystems. © 2014

  5. A framework for examining climate-driven changes to the seasonality and geographical range of coastal pathogens and harmful algae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Jacobs

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to alter coastal ecosystems in ways which may have predictable consequences for the seasonality and geographical distribution of human pathogens and harmful algae. Here we demonstrate relatively simple approaches for evaluating the risk of occurrence of pathogenic bacteria in the genus Vibrio and outbreaks of toxin-producing harmful algae in the genus Alexandrium, with estimates of uncertainty, in U.S. coastal waters under future climate change scenarios through the end of the 21st century. One approach forces empirical models of growth, abundance and the probability of occurrence of the pathogens and algae at specific locations in the Chesapeake Bay and Puget Sound with ensembles of statistically downscaled climate model projections to produce first order assessments of changes in seasonality. In all of the case studies examined, the seasonal window of occurrence for Vibrio and Alexandrium broadened, indicating longer annual periods of time when there is increased risk for outbreaks. A second approach uses climate model projections coupled with GIS to identify the potential for geographic range shifts for Vibrio spp. in the coastal waters of Alaska. These two approaches could be applied to other coastal pathogens that have climate sensitive drivers to investigate potential changes to the risk of outbreaks in both time (seasonality and space (geographical distribution under future climate change scenarios.

  6. Ultra-wideband horn antenna with abrupt radiator

    Science.gov (United States)

    McEwan, Thomas E.

    1998-01-01

    An ultra-wideband horn antenna transmits and receives impulse waveforms for short-range radars and impulse time-of flight systems. The antenna reduces or eliminates various sources of close-in radar clutter, including pulse dispersion and ringing, sidelobe clutter, and feedline coupling into the antenna. Dispersion is minimized with an abrupt launch point radiator element; sidelobe and feedline coupling are minimized by recessing the radiator into a metallic horn. Low frequency cut-off associated with a horn is extended by configuring the radiator drive impedance to approach a short circuit at low frequencies. A tapered feed plate connects at one end to a feedline, and at the other end to a launcher plate which is mounted to an inside wall of the horn. The launcher plate and feed plate join at an abrupt edge which forms the single launch point of the antenna.

  7. Elucidating Dynamical Processes Relevant to Flow Encountering Abrupt Topography (FLEAT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-30

    Encountering Abrupt Topography (FLEAT) Bo Qiu Dept of Oceanography, University of Hawaii at Manoa 1000 Pope Rd. Honolulu, HI 96822 phone: (808) 956...c) to explore relevant dynamics by using both simplified models and OGCM output with realistic topography and surface boundary conditions...scale abyssal circulation, we propose to use the Hallberg Isopycnal Model (HIM). The HIM allows sloping isopycnals to interact with bottom topography

  8. Climate Stability: Pathway to understand abrupt glacial climate shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, X.; Knorr, G.; Barker, S.; Lohmann, G.

    2017-12-01

    Glacial climate is marked by abrupt, millennial-scale climate changes known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) cycles that have been linked to variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The most pronounced stadial coolings, Heinrich Stadials (HSs), are associated with massive iceberg discharges to the North Atlantic. This motivates scientists to consider that the North Atlantic freshwater perturbations is a common trigger of the associated abrupt transitions between weak and strong AMOC states. However, recent studies suggest that the Heinrich ice-surging events are triggered by ocean subsurface warming associated with an AMOC slow-down. Furthermore, the duration of ice-rafting events does not systematically coincide with the beginning and end of the pronounced cold conditions during HSs. In this context, we show that both, changes in atmospheric CO2 and ice sheet configuration can provide important control on the stability of the AMOC, using a coupled atmosphere-ocean model. Our simulations reveal that gradual changes in Northern Hemisphere ice sheet height and atmospheric CO2 can act as a trigger of abrupt glacial/deglacial climate changes. The simulated global climate responses—including abrupt warming in the North Atlantic, a northward shift of the tropical rain belts, and Southern Hemisphere cooling related to the bipolar seesaw—are generally consistent with empirical evidence. We further find that under a delicate configuration of atmospheric CO2 and ice sheet height the AMOC can be characterized by a self-oscillation (resonance) feature (Hopf Bifucation) with a 1000-year cycle that is comparable with observed small DO events during the MIS 3. This provides an alternative explanation for millennial-scale DO variability during glacial periods.

  9. Abrupt category shifts during real-time person perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, Jonathan B

    2014-02-01

    Previous studies have suggested that real-time person perception relies on continuous competition, in which partially active categories smoothly compete over time. Here, two studies demonstrated the involvement of a different kind of competition. In Study 1, before participants selected the correct sex category for morphed faces, their mouse trajectories often exhibited a continuous attraction toward the incorrect category that increased with sex-category ambiguity, indicating continuous competition. On other trials, however, trajectories initially pursued the incorrect category and then abruptly redirected toward the correct category, suggesting early incorrect category activation that was rapidly reversed later in processing. These abrupt category reversals also increased with ambiguity. In Study 2, participants were presented with faces containing a sex-typical or sex-atypical hair cue, in a context in which the norm was either sex-typical targets (normative context) or sex-atypical targets (counternormative context). Sex-atypical targets induced greater competition in the normative context, but sex-typical targets induced greater competition in the counternormative context. Together, these results demonstrate that categorizing others involves both smooth competition and abrupt category shifts, and that these flexibly adapt to the social context.

  10. Placental abruption possibly due to parvovirus B19 infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawabe, Ayaka; Takai, Yasushi; Tamaru, Jun-Ichi; Samejima, Kouki; Seki, Hiroyuki

    2016-01-01

    There is concern about the development of anemia-associated fetal hydrops associated with maternal parvovirus B19 infection. Parvovirus B19 infection occurs via the globoside (P antigen) receptor, the main glycolipid of erythroid cells, which induces apoptosis. Similar findings have been reported for the P antigen of globoside-containing placental trophoblast cells. A 32-year-old woman was infected with human parvovirus B19 at week 32 of pregnancy, and had severe anemia at week 34. At week 37, an emergency cesarean section was performed because of sudden abdominal pain and fetal bradycardia; placental abruption was found. A live male infant was delivered with no sign of fetal hydrops or fetal infection. Placental tissue was positive for parvovirus B19 according to polymerase chain reaction. Immunohistochemical analysis using caspase-related M30 CytoDEATH monoclonal antibody revealed M30 staining of the placental villous trophoblasts. Placental trophoblasts and erythroid precursor cells have been reported to express globoside (P antigen), which is necessary for parvovirus B19 infectivity, and to show apoptotic activity as a result of infection. Placentas from three other pregnancies with documented abruption showed no M30 staining. The present case strongly suggests an association between placental abruption and apoptosis resulting from parvovirus B19 infection.

  11. Climate-driven effects of fire on winter habitat for caribou in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gustine, David D.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Lindgren, Michael A.; Schmidt, Jennifer I.; Rupp, T. Scott; Adams, Layne G.

    2014-01-01

    Climatic warming has direct implications for fire-dominated disturbance patterns in northern ecosystems. A transforming wildfire regime is altering plant composition and successional patterns, thus affecting the distribution and potentially the abundance of large herbivores. Caribou (Rangifer tarandus) are an important subsistence resource for communities throughout the north and a species that depends on terrestrial lichen in late-successional forests and tundra systems. Projected increases in area burned and reductions in stand ages may reduce lichen availability within caribou winter ranges. Sufficient reductions in lichen abundance could alter the capacity of these areas to support caribou populations. To assess the potential role of a changing fire regime on winter habitat for caribou, we used a simulation modeling platform, two global circulation models (GCMs), and a moderate emissions scenario to project annual fire characteristics and the resulting abundance of lichen-producing vegetation types (i.e., spruce forests and tundra >60 years old) across a modeling domain that encompassed the winter ranges of the Central Arctic and Porcupine caribou herds in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic. Fires were less numerous and smaller in tundra compared to spruce habitats throughout the 90-year projection for both GCMs. Given the more likely climate trajectory, we projected that the Porcupine caribou herd, which winters primarily in the boreal forest, could be expected to experience a greater reduction in lichen-producing winter habitats (−21%) than the Central Arctic herd that wintered primarily in the arctic tundra (−11%). Our results suggest that caribou herds wintering in boreal forest will undergo fire-driven reductions in lichen-producing habitats that will, at a minimum, alter their distribution. Range shifts of caribou resulting from fire-driven changes to winter habitat may diminish access to caribou for rural communities that reside in fire-prone areas.

  12. Climate-driven effects of fire on winter habitat for caribou in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David D Gustine

    Full Text Available Climatic warming has direct implications for fire-dominated disturbance patterns in northern ecosystems. A transforming wildfire regime is altering plant composition and successional patterns, thus affecting the distribution and potentially the abundance of large herbivores. Caribou (Rangifer tarandus are an important subsistence resource for communities throughout the north and a species that depends on terrestrial lichen in late-successional forests and tundra systems. Projected increases in area burned and reductions in stand ages may reduce lichen availability within caribou winter ranges. Sufficient reductions in lichen abundance could alter the capacity of these areas to support caribou populations. To assess the potential role of a changing fire regime on winter habitat for caribou, we used a simulation modeling platform, two global circulation models (GCMs, and a moderate emissions scenario to project annual fire characteristics and the resulting abundance of lichen-producing vegetation types (i.e., spruce forests and tundra >60 years old across a modeling domain that encompassed the winter ranges of the Central Arctic and Porcupine caribou herds in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic. Fires were less numerous and smaller in tundra compared to spruce habitats throughout the 90-year projection for both GCMs. Given the more likely climate trajectory, we projected that the Porcupine caribou herd, which winters primarily in the boreal forest, could be expected to experience a greater reduction in lichen-producing winter habitats (-21% than the Central Arctic herd that wintered primarily in the arctic tundra (-11%. Our results suggest that caribou herds wintering in boreal forest will undergo fire-driven reductions in lichen-producing habitats that will, at a minimum, alter their distribution. Range shifts of caribou resulting from fire-driven changes to winter habitat may diminish access to caribou for rural communities that reside in fire-prone areas.

  13. Climate-driven effects of fire on winter habitat for caribou in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gustine, David D; Brinkman, Todd J; Lindgren, Michael A; Schmidt, Jennifer I; Rupp, T Scott; Adams, Layne G

    2014-01-01

    Climatic warming has direct implications for fire-dominated disturbance patterns in northern ecosystems. A transforming wildfire regime is altering plant composition and successional patterns, thus affecting the distribution and potentially the abundance of large herbivores. Caribou (Rangifer tarandus) are an important subsistence resource for communities throughout the north and a species that depends on terrestrial lichen in late-successional forests and tundra systems. Projected increases in area burned and reductions in stand ages may reduce lichen availability within caribou winter ranges. Sufficient reductions in lichen abundance could alter the capacity of these areas to support caribou populations. To assess the potential role of a changing fire regime on winter habitat for caribou, we used a simulation modeling platform, two global circulation models (GCMs), and a moderate emissions scenario to project annual fire characteristics and the resulting abundance of lichen-producing vegetation types (i.e., spruce forests and tundra >60 years old) across a modeling domain that encompassed the winter ranges of the Central Arctic and Porcupine caribou herds in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic. Fires were less numerous and smaller in tundra compared to spruce habitats throughout the 90-year projection for both GCMs. Given the more likely climate trajectory, we projected that the Porcupine caribou herd, which winters primarily in the boreal forest, could be expected to experience a greater reduction in lichen-producing winter habitats (-21%) than the Central Arctic herd that wintered primarily in the arctic tundra (-11%). Our results suggest that caribou herds wintering in boreal forest will undergo fire-driven reductions in lichen-producing habitats that will, at a minimum, alter their distribution. Range shifts of caribou resulting from fire-driven changes to winter habitat may diminish access to caribou for rural communities that reside in fire-prone areas.

  14. Climate change: The 2015 Paris Agreement thresholds and Mediterranean basin ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guiot, Joel; Cramer, Wolfgang

    2016-10-28

    The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Paris Agreement of December 2015 aims to maintain the global average warming well below 2°C above the preindustrial level. In the Mediterranean basin, recent pollen-based reconstructions of climate and ecosystem variability over the past 10,000 years provide insights regarding the implications of warming thresholds for biodiversity and land-use potential. We compare scenarios of climate-driven future change in land ecosystems with reconstructed ecosystem dynamics during the past 10,000 years. Only a 1.5°C warming scenario permits ecosystems to remain within the Holocene variability. At or above 2°C of warming, climatic change will generate Mediterranean land ecosystem changes that are unmatched in the Holocene, a period characterized by recurring precipitation deficits rather than temperature anomalies. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  15. Atmospheric CO2 and abrupt climate change on submillennial timescales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahn, Jinho; Brook, Edward

    2010-05-01

    How atmospheric CO2 varies and is controlled on various time scales and under various boundary conditions is important for understanding how the carbon cycle and climate change are linked. Ancient air preserved in ice cores provides important information on past variations in atmospheric CO2. In particular, concentration records for intervals of abrupt climate change may improve understanding of mechanisms that govern atmospheric CO2. We present new multi-decadal CO2 records that cover Greenland stadial 9 (between Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events 8 and 9) and the abrupt cooling event at 8.2 ka. The CO2 records come from Antarctic ice cores but are well synchronized with Greenland ice core records using new high-resolution CH4 records,precisely defining the timing of CO2 change with respect to abrupt climate events in Greenland. Previous work showed that during stadial 9 (40~38 ka), CO2 rose by about 15~20 ppm over around 2,000 years, and at the same time temperatures in Antarctica increased. Dust proxies indicate a decrease in dust flux over the same period. With more detailed data and better age controls we now find that approximately half of the CO2 increase during stadial 9 occurred abruptly, over the course of decades to a century at ~39.6 ka. The step increase of CO2 is synchronous with a similar step increase of Antarctic isotopic temperature and a small abrupt change in CH4, and lags after the onset of decrease in dust flux by ~400 years. New atmospheric CO2 records at the well-known ~8.2 ka cooling event were obtained from Siple Dome ice core, Antarctica. Our preliminary CO2 data span 900 years and include 19 data points within the 8.2 ka cooling event, which persisted for ~160 years (Thomas et al., Quarternary Sci. Rev., 2007). We find that CO2 increased by 2~4 ppm during that cooling event. Further analyses will improve the resolution and better constrain the CO2 variability during other times in the early Holocene to determine if the variations observed

  16. Recurrent Placental Abruption with Methylenetetrahydrofolate Reductase C667t Heterozygosity: A Case Report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilgın Türkçüoğlu

    2007-12-01

    Risk of recurrence is high in patients with a history of placental abruption. Antenatal care and delivery after fetal lung maturation is advised since the perinatal mortality is high with placental abruption.

  17. Climate-driven environmental changes around 8,200 years ago favoured increases in cetacean strandings and Mediterranean hunter-gatherers exploited them.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannino, Marcello A; Talamo, Sahra; Tagliacozzo, Antonio; Fiore, Ivana; Nehlich, Olaf; Piperno, Marcello; Tusa, Sebastiano; Collina, Carmine; Di Salvo, Rosaria; Schimmenti, Vittoria; Richards, Michael P

    2015-11-17

    Cetacean mass strandings occur regularly worldwide, yet the compounded effects of natural and anthropogenic factors often complicate our understanding of these phenomena. Evidence of past stranding episodes may, thus, be essential to establish the potential influence of climate change. Investigations on bones from the site of Grotta dell'Uzzo in North West Sicily (Italy) show that the rapid climate change around 8,200 years ago coincided with increased strandings in the Mediterranean Sea. Stable isotope analyses on collagen from a large sample of remains recovered at this cave indicate that Mesolithic hunter-gatherers relied little on marine resources. A human and a red fox dating to the 8.2-kyr-BP climatic event, however, acquired at least one third of their protein from cetaceans. Numerous carcasses should have been available annually, for at least a decade, to obtain these proportions of meat. Our findings imply that climate-driven environmental changes, caused by global warming, may represent a serious threat to cetaceans in the near future.

  18. The abrupt onset of the modern South Asian monsoon winds

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Betzler, C.; Eberli, G.P.; Kroon, D.; Wright, J.D.; Swart, P.K.; Nath, B.N.; Alvarez-Zarikian, C.A.; Alonso-Garcia, M.; Bialik, O.M.; Blattler, C.L.; Guo, J.; Haffen, S.; Horozal, S.; Inoue, M.; Jovane, L.; Lanci, L.; Laya, J.C.; Mee, A.L.H.; Ludmann, T.; Nakakuni, M.; Niino, K.; Petruny, L.M.; Pratiwi, S.D.; Reijmer, J.J.G.; Reolid, J.; Slagle, A.L.; Sloss, C.R.; Su, X.; Yao, Z.; Young, J.R.

    :29838 | DOI: 10.1038/srep29838 www.nature.com/scientificreports The abrupt onset of the modern South Asian Monsoon winds Christian Betzler1, Gregor P. Eberli2, Dick Kroon3, James D. Wright4, Peter K. Swart2, Bejugam Nagender Nath5, Carlos A. Alvarez....betzler@uni-hamburg.de) Received: 25 April 2016 accepted: 21 June 2016 Published: 20 July 2016 OPEN www.nature.com/scientificreports/ 2Scientific RepoRts | 6:29838 | DOI: 10.1038/srep29838 control, and we propose that the post Miocene Climate Optimum cooling, together...

  19. North Sea ecosystem change from swimming crabs to seagulls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luczak, C; Beaugrand, G; Lindley, J A; Dewarumez, J-M; Dubois, P J; Kirby, R R

    2012-10-23

    A recent increase in sea temperature has established a new ecosystem dynamic regime in the North Sea. Climate-induced changes in decapods have played an important role. Here, we reveal a coincident increase in the abundance of swimming crabs and lesser black-backed gull colonies in the North Sea, both in time and in space. Swimming crabs are an important food source for lesser black-backed gulls during the breeding season. Inhabiting the land, but feeding mainly at sea, lesser black-backed gulls provide a link between marine and terrestrial ecosystems, since the bottom-up influence of allochthonous nutrient input from seabirds to coastal soils can structure the terrestrial food web. We, therefore, suggest that climate-driven changes in trophic interactions in the marine food web may also have ensuing ramifications for the coastal ecology of the North Sea.

  20. Dynamic behaviour of lagoon ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cioffi, F.

    2008-01-01

    The dynamic behaviour of primary producers in coastal lagoons due to change of external control parameters, phosphorous external load and maximum tidal flow rate, is investigated by using a eutrophication model. The eutrophication model allows the simulation of the temporal evolution of the concentration of the following species: a) in the water column: dissolved oxygen, vegetal organic carbon, particulate and dissolved organic carbon, dissolved phosphorous and hydrogen sulphide; b) in sediments: dissolved oxygen, particulate and dissolved organic carbon, dissolved and adsorbed phosphorous, hydrogen sulphide. The vegetal organic carbon is distinguished in three components related to the main groups of primary producers, namely eel grass, macro algae and microalgae, having different modalities of nutrient uptake and kinetics parameters depending on the S/V ratio. Diagrams representing the ecosystems dynamic response to the changes of the control parameters were constructed by simulations. The response diagrams suggest the existence of regime shifts which border different ecosystem stability ranges, characterized by the dominance of a specific group of primary producers and by different ecosystem vulnerability at summer water anoxia. A catastrophic bifurcation or abrupt regime shift, evidenced by Poincare sections obtained mapping, at a prefixed time period, the values of the concentration of the species, occurs for a critical value of the control parameter and manifests itself as an abrupt change of the dominant species from eel grass to macro algae. An analogous abrupt change from eel grass to macro algae occurs for a critical value of the tidal flowrate assumed as control parameter in simulations conducted for an assigned value of external phosphorous load.

  1. North Pacific deglacial hypoxic events linked to abrupt ocean warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Praetorius, Summer K; Mix, Alan C.; Davies, Maureen H.; Wolhowe, Matthew D; Addison, Jason A.; Prahl, Frederick G

    2015-01-01

    Marine sediments from the North Pacific document two episodes of expansion and strengthening of the subsurface oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) accompanied by seafloor hypoxia during the last deglacial transition1, 2, 3, 4. The mechanisms driving this hypoxia remain under debate1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11. We present a new high-resolution alkenone palaeotemperature reconstruction from the Gulf of Alaska that reveals two abrupt warming events of 4–5 degrees Celsius at the onset of the Bølling and Holocene intervals that coincide with sudden shifts to hypoxia at intermediate depths. The presence of diatomaceous laminations and hypoxia-tolerant benthic foraminiferal species, peaks in redox-sensitive trace metals12, 13, and enhanced 15N/14N ratio of organic matter13, collectively suggest association with high export production. A decrease in 18O/16O values of benthic foraminifera accompanying the most severe deoxygenation event indicates subsurface warming of up to about 2 degrees Celsius. We infer that abrupt warming triggered expansion of the North Pacific OMZ through reduced oxygen solubility and increased marine productivity via physiological effects; following initiation of hypoxia, remobilization of iron from hypoxic sediments could have provided a positive feedback on ocean deoxygenation through increased nutrient utilization and carbon export. Such a biogeochemical amplification process implies high sensitivity of OMZ expansion to warming.

  2. Climate, carbon cycling, and deep-ocean ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, K L; Ruhl, H A; Bett, B J; Billett, D S M; Lampitt, R S; Kaufmann, R S

    2009-11-17

    Climate variation affects surface ocean processes and the production of organic carbon, which ultimately comprises the primary food supply to the deep-sea ecosystems that occupy approximately 60% of the Earth's surface. Warming trends in atmospheric and upper ocean temperatures, attributed to anthropogenic influence, have occurred over the past four decades. Changes in upper ocean temperature influence stratification and can affect the availability of nutrients for phytoplankton production. Global warming has been predicted to intensify stratification and reduce vertical mixing. Research also suggests that such reduced mixing will enhance variability in primary production and carbon export flux to the deep sea. The dependence of deep-sea communities on surface water production has raised important questions about how climate change will affect carbon cycling and deep-ocean ecosystem function. Recently, unprecedented time-series studies conducted over the past two decades in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic at >4,000-m depth have revealed unexpectedly large changes in deep-ocean ecosystems significantly correlated to climate-driven changes in the surface ocean that can impact the global carbon cycle. Climate-driven variation affects oceanic communities from surface waters to the much-overlooked deep sea and will have impacts on the global carbon cycle. Data from these two widely separated areas of the deep ocean provide compelling evidence that changes in climate can readily influence deep-sea processes. However, the limited geographic coverage of these existing time-series studies stresses the importance of developing a more global effort to monitor deep-sea ecosystems under modern conditions of rapidly changing climate.

  3. Alpine ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    P.W. Rundel; C.I. Millar

    2016-01-01

    Alpine ecosystems are typically defined as those areas occurring above treeline, while recognizing that alpine ecosystems at a local scale may be found below this boundary for reasons including geology, geomorphology, and microclimate. The lower limit of the alpine ecosystems, the climatic treeline, varies with latitude across California, ranging from about 3500 m in...

  4. Ecosystem Jenga!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Umphlett, Natalie; Brosius, Tierney; Laungani, Ramesh; Rousseau, Joe; Leslie-Pelecky, Diandra L.

    2009-01-01

    To give students a tangible model of an ecosystem and have them experience what could happen if a component of that ecosystem were removed; the authors developed a hands-on, inquiry-based activity that visually demonstrates the concept of a delicately balanced ecosystem through a modification of the popular game Jenga. This activity can be…

  5. Belowground Plant–Herbivore Interactions Vary among Climate-Driven Range-Expanding Plant Species with Different Degrees of Novel Chemistry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rutger A. Wilschut

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available An increasing number of studies report plant range expansions to higher latitudes and altitudes in response to global warming. However, consequences for interactions with other species in the novel ranges are poorly understood. Here, we examine how range-expanding plant species interact with root-feeding nematodes from the new range. Root-feeding nematodes are ubiquitous belowground herbivores that may impact the structure and composition of natural vegetation. Because of their ecological novelty, we hypothesized that range-expanding plant species will be less suitable hosts for root-feeding nematodes than native congeneric plant species. In greenhouse and lab trials we compared nematode preference and performance of two root-feeding nematode species between range-expanding plant species and their congeneric natives. In order to understand differences in nematode preferences, we compared root volatile profiles of all range-expanders and congeneric natives. Nematode preferences and performances differed substantially among the pairs of range-expanders and natives. The range-expander that had the most unique volatile profile compared to its related native was unattractive and a poor host for nematodes. Other range-expanding plant species that differed less in root chemistry from native congeners, also differed less in nematode attraction and performance. We conclude that the three climate-driven range-expanding plant species studied varied considerably in their chemical novelty compared to their congeneric natives, and therefore affected native root-feeding nematodes in species-specific ways. Our data suggest that through variation in chemical novelty, range-expanding plant species may vary in their impacts on belowground herbivores in the new range.

  6. Change in the Green-Up Dates for Quercus mongolica in Northeast China and Its Climate-Driven Mechanism from 1962 to 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Deqin; Zhu, Wenquan; Zheng, Zhoutao; Zhang, Donghai; Pan, Yaozhong; Jiang, Nan; Zhou, Xiafei

    2015-01-01

    The currently available studies on the green-up date were mainly based on ground observations and/or satellite data, and few model simulations integrated with wide coverage satellite data have been reported at large scale over a long time period (i.e., > 30 years). In this study, we combined phenology mechanism model, long-term climate data and synoptic scale remote sensing data to investigate the change in the green-up dates for Quercus mongolica over 33 weather stations in Northeast China and its climate-driven mechanism during 1962-2012. The results indicated that the unified phenology model can be well parameterized with the satellite derived green-up dates. The optimal daily mean temperature for chilling effect was between -27°C and 1°C for Q. mongolica in Northeast China, while the optimal daily mean temperature for forcing effect was above -3°C. The green-up dates for Q. mongolica across Northeast China showed a delayed latitudinal gradient of 2.699 days degree-1, with the earliest date on the Julian day 93 (i.e., 3th April) in the south and the latest date on the Julian day 129 (i.e., 9th May) in the north. The green-up date for Q. mongolica in Northeast China has advanced 6.6 days (1.3 days decade-1) from 1962 to 2012. With the prevailing warming in autumn, winter and spring in Northeast China during the past 51 years, the chilling effect for Q. mongolica has been weakened, while the forcing effect has been enhanced. The advancing trend in the green-up dates for Q. mongolica implied that the enhanced forcing effect to accelerate green-up was stronger than the weakened chilling effect to hold back green-up while the changes of both effects were caused by the warming climate.

  7. The interaction of neutral evolutionary processes with climatically-driven adaptive changes in the 3D shape of the human os coxae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betti, Lia; von Cramon-Taubadel, Noreen; Manica, Andrea; Lycett, Stephen J

    2014-08-01

    Differences in the breadth of the pelvis among modern human populations and among extinct hominin species have often been interpreted in the light of thermoregulatory adaptation, whereby a larger pelvic girdle would help preserve body temperature in cold environments while a narrower pelvis would help dissipate heat in tropical climates. There is, however, a theoretical problem in interpreting a pattern of variation as evidence of selection without first accounting for the effects of neutral evolutionary processes (i.e., mutation, genetic drift and migration). Here, we analyse 3D configurations of 27 landmarks on the os coxae of 1494 modern human individuals representing 30 male and 23 female populations from five continents and a range of climatic conditions. We test for the effects of climate on the size and shape of the pelvic bone, while explicitly accounting for population history (i.e., geographically-mediated gene flow and genetic drift). We find that neutral processes account for a substantial proportion of shape variance in the human os coxae in both sexes. Beyond the neutral pattern due to population history, temperature is a significant predictor of shape and size variation in the os coxae, at least in males. The effect of climate on the shape of the pelvic bone, however, is comparatively limited, explaining only a small percentage of shape variation in males and females. In accordance with previous hypotheses, the size of the os coxae tends to increase with decreasing temperature, although the significance of the association is reduced when population history is taken into account. In conclusion, the shape and size of the human os coxae reflect both neutral evolutionary processes and climatically-driven adaptive changes. Neutral processes have a substantial effect on pelvic variation, suggesting such factors will need to be taken into account in future studies of human and fossil hominin coxal variation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights

  8. Change in the Green-Up Dates for Quercus mongolica in Northeast China and Its Climate-Driven Mechanism from 1962 to 2012.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deqin Fan

    Full Text Available The currently available studies on the green-up date were mainly based on ground observations and/or satellite data, and few model simulations integrated with wide coverage satellite data have been reported at large scale over a long time period (i.e., > 30 years. In this study, we combined phenology mechanism model, long-term climate data and synoptic scale remote sensing data to investigate the change in the green-up dates for Quercus mongolica over 33 weather stations in Northeast China and its climate-driven mechanism during 1962-2012. The results indicated that the unified phenology model can be well parameterized with the satellite derived green-up dates. The optimal daily mean temperature for chilling effect was between -27°C and 1°C for Q. mongolica in Northeast China, while the optimal daily mean temperature for forcing effect was above -3°C. The green-up dates for Q. mongolica across Northeast China showed a delayed latitudinal gradient of 2.699 days degree-1, with the earliest date on the Julian day 93 (i.e., 3th April in the south and the latest date on the Julian day 129 (i.e., 9th May in the north. The green-up date for Q. mongolica in Northeast China has advanced 6.6 days (1.3 days decade-1 from 1962 to 2012. With the prevailing warming in autumn, winter and spring in Northeast China during the past 51 years, the chilling effect for Q. mongolica has been weakened, while the forcing effect has been enhanced. The advancing trend in the green-up dates for Q. mongolica implied that the enhanced forcing effect to accelerate green-up was stronger than the weakened chilling effect to hold back green-up while the changes of both effects were caused by the warming climate.

  9. Conditions for plasmoid penetration across abrupt magnetic barriers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brenning, Nils; Hurtig, Tomas; Raadu, Michael A.

    2005-01-01

    The penetration of plasma clouds, or plasmoids, across abrupt magnetic barriers (of the scale less than a few ion gyro radii, using the plasmoid directed velocity) is studied. The insight gained earlier, from detailed experimental and computer simulation investigations of a case study, is generalized into other parameter regimes. It is concluded for what parameters a plasmoid should be expected to penetrate the magnetic barrier through self-polarization, penetrate through magnetic expulsion, or be rejected from the barrier. The scaling parameters are n e , v 0 , B perpendicular , m i , T i , and the width w of the plasmoid. The scaling is based on a model for strongly driven, nonlinear magnetic field diffusion into a plasma which is a generalization of the earlier laboratory findings. The results are applied to experiments earlier reported in the literature, and also to the proposed application of impulsive penetration of plasmoids from the solar wind into the Earth's magnetosphere

  10. Spontaneous intraparenchymal otogenic pneumocephalus presenting with abrupt onset of coma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scuotto, A.; Cappabianca, S.; Capasso, R.; Natale, M.; D'Oria, S.; Rotondo, M.

    2016-01-01

    We report a case of spontaneous otogenic pneumocephalus, manifesting with a rapid deterioration of consciousness level. A 37-year-old man presented a 3-days history of headache and fluctuant confusion. On admission the patient was neurologically intact except for temporo-spatial disorientation. Brain Computed Tomography (CT) scan showed a large air collection in the left temporal lobe, causing mass effect. Hyperpneumatisation of mastoid air cells was also noticed. Because of the abrupt onset of coma (Glasgow Coma Scale = 10), emergency surgical evacuation of tensive pneumocephalus was carried out. Postoperatively, the patient quickly regained a good level of consciousness and was headache-free. - Highlights: • Spontaneous otogenic pneumocephalus generally presents with subtle symptoms. • Sudden consciousness involvement is a rare onset condition. • Hyperpneumatisation of the petrous bone is a predisposing factor.

  11. Climate-driven polar motion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Celaya, Michael A.; Wahr, John M.; Bryan, Frank O.

    1999-06-01

    The output of a coupled climate system model provides a synthetic climate record with temporal and spatial coverage not attainable with observational data, allowing evaluation of climatic excitation of polar motion on timescales of months to decades. Analysis of the geodetically inferred Chandler excitation power shows that it has fluctuated by up to 90% since 1900 and that it has characteristics representative of a stationary Gaussian process. Our model-predicted climate excitation of the Chandler wobble also exhibits variable power comparable to the observed. Ocean currents and bottom pressure shifts acting together can alone drive the 14-month wobble. The same is true of the excitation generated by the combined effects of barometric pressure and winds. The oceanic and atmospheric contributions are this large because of a relatively high degree of constructive interference between seafloor pressure and currents and between atmospheric pressure and winds. In contrast, excitation by the redistribution of water on land appears largely insignificant. Not surprisingly, the full climate effect is even more capable of driving the wobble than the effects of the oceans or atmosphere alone are. Our match to the observed annual excitation is also improved, by about 17%, over previous estimates made with historical climate data. Efforts to explain the 30-year Markowitz wobble meet with less success. Even so, at periods ranging from months to decades, excitation generated by a model of a coupled climate system makes a close approximation to the amplitude of what is geodetically observed.

  12. Ecosystem stewardship: sustainability strategies for a rapidly changing planet

    Science.gov (United States)

    F. Stuart Chapin; Stephen R. Carpenter; Gary P. Kofinas; Carl Folke; Nick Abel; William C. Clark; Per Olsson; D. Mark Stafford Smith; Brian Walker; Oran R. Young; Fikret Berkes; Reinette Biggs; J. Morgan Grove; Rosamond L. Naylor; Evelyn Pinkerton; Will Steffen; Frederick J. Swanson

    2010-01-01

    Ecosystem stewardship is an action-oriented framework intended to foster the social-ecological sustainability of a rapidly changing planet. Recent developments identify three strategies that make optimal use of current understanding in an environment of inevitable uncertainty and abrupt change: reducing the magnitude of, and exposure and sensitivity to, known stresses...

  13. A population-based study of race-specific risk for placental abruption

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stamilio David M

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Efforts to elucidate risk factors for placental abruption are imperative due to the severity of complications it produces for both mother and fetus, and its contribution to preterm birth. Ethnicity-based differences in risk of placental abruption and preterm birth have been reported. We tested the hypotheses that race, after adjusting for other factors, is associated with the risk of placental abruption at specific gestational ages, and that there is a greater contribution of placental abruption to the increased risk of preterm birth in Black mothers, compared to White mothers. Methods We conducted a population-based cohort study using the Missouri Department of Health's maternally-linked database of all births in Missouri (1989–1997 to assess racial effects on placental abruption and the contribution of placental abruption to preterm birth, at different gestational age categories (n = 664,303. Results Among 108,806 births to Black mothers and 555,497 births to White mothers, 1.02% (95% CI 0.96–1.08 of Black births were complicated by placental abruption, compared to 0.71% (95% CI 0.69–0.73 of White births (aOR 1.32, 95% CI 1.22–1.43. The magnitude of risk of placental abruption for Black mothers, compared to White mothers, increased with younger gestational age categories. The risk of placental abruption resulting in term and extreme preterm births ( Conclusion Black women have an increased risk of placental abruption compared to White women, even when controlling for known coexisting risk factors. This risk increase is greatest at the earliest preterm gestational ages when outcomes are the poorest. The relative contribution of placental abruption to term births was greater in Black women, whereas the relative contribution of placental abruption to preterm birth was greater in White women.

  14. Evaluation of the significance of abrupt changes in precipitation and runoff process in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Ping; Wu, Ziyi; Sang, Yan-Fang; Gu, Haiting; Zhao, Yuxi; Singh, Vijay P.

    2018-05-01

    Abrupt changes are an important manifestation of hydrological variability. How to accurately detect the abrupt changes in hydrological time series and evaluate their significance is an important issue, but methods for dealing with them effectively are lacking. In this study, we propose an approach to evaluate the significance of abrupt changes in time series at five levels: no, weak, moderate, strong, and dramatic. The approach was based on an index of correlation coefficient calculated for the original time series and its abrupt change component. A bigger value of correlation coefficient reflects a higher significance level of abrupt change. Results of Monte-Carlo experiments verified the reliability of the proposed approach, and also indicated the great influence of statistical characteristics of time series on the significance level of abrupt change. The approach was derived from the relationship between correlation coefficient index and abrupt change, and can estimate and grade the significance levels of abrupt changes in hydrological time series. Application of the proposed approach to ten major watersheds in China showed that abrupt changes mainly occurred in five watersheds in northern China, which have arid or semi-arid climate and severe shortages of water resources. Runoff processes in northern China were more sensitive to precipitation change than those in southern China. Although annual precipitation and surface water resources amount (SWRA) exhibited a harmonious relationship in most watersheds, abrupt changes in the latter were more significant. Compared with abrupt changes in annual precipitation, human activities contributed much more to the abrupt changes in the corresponding SWRA, except for the Northwest Inland River watershed.

  15. Abrupt climate changes during Termination III in Southern Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Mejías, Carlos; Moreno, Ana; Sancho, Carlos; Bartolomé, Miguel; Stoll, Heather; Cacho, Isabel; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, R Lawrence

    2017-09-19

    The Late Quaternary glacial-interglacial transitions represent the highest amplitude climate changes over the last million years. Unraveling the sequence of events and feedbacks at Termination III (T-III), including potential abrupt climate reversals similar to those of the last Termination, has been particularly challenging due to the scarcity of well-dated records worldwide. Here, we present speleothem data from southern Europe covering the interval from 262.7 to 217.9 kyBP, including the transition from marine isotope stage (MIS) 8 to MIS 7e. High-resolution δ 13 C, δ 18 O, and Mg/Ca profiles reveal major millennial-scale changes in aridity manifested in changing water availability and vegetation productivity. uranium-thorium dates provide a solid chronology for two millennial-scale events (S8.1 and S8.2) which, compared with the last two terminations, has some common features with Heinrich 1 and Heinrich 2 in Termination I (T-I).

  16. Ultra-Abrupt Tapered Fiber Mach-Zehnder Interferometer Sensors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lanying Zhou

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available A fiber inline Mach-Zehnder interferometer (MZI consisting of ultra-abrupt fiber tapers was fabricated through a new fusion-splicing method. By fusion-splicing, the taper diameter-length ratio is around 1:1, which is much greater than those (1:10 made by stretching. The proposed fabrication method is very low cost, 1/20–1/50 of those of LPFG pair MZI sensors. The fabricated MZIs are applied to measure refractive index, temperature and rotation angle changes. The temperature sensitivity of the MZI at a length of 30 mm is 0.061 nm/°C from 30–350 °C. The proposed MZI is also used to measure rotation angles ranging from 0° to 0.55°; the sensitivity is 54.98 nm/°. The refractive index sensitivity is improved by 3–5 fold by fabricating an inline micro–trench on the fiber cladding using a femtosecond laser. Acetone vapor of 50 ppm in N2 is tested by the MZI sensor coated with MFI–type zeolite thin film. The proposed MZI sensors are capable of in situ detection in many areas of interest such as environmental management, industrial process control, and public health.

  17. Turbulent forced convection of nanofluids downstream an abrupt expansion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimouche, Abdelali; Mataoui, Amina

    2018-03-01

    Turbulent forced convection of Nanofluids through an axisymmetric abrupt expansion is investigated numerically in the present study. The governing equations are solved by ANYS 14.0 CFD code based on the finite volume method by implementing the thermo-physical properties of each nanofluid. All results are analyzed through the evolutions of skin friction coefficient and Nusselt number. For each nanofluid, the effect of both volume fraction and Reynolds number on this type of flow configuration, are examined. An increase on average Nusselt number with the volume fraction and Reynolds number, are highlighted and correlated. Two relationships are proposed. The first one, determines the average Nusselt number versus Reynolds number, volume fraction and the ratio of densities of the solid particles to that of the base fluid ( \\overline{Nu}=f(\\operatorname{Re},φ, ρ_s/ρ_f) ). The second one varies according Reynolds number, volume fraction and the conductivities ratio of solid particle to that of the base fluid ( \\overline{Nu}=f(\\operatorname{Re},φ, k_s/k_f) ).

  18. Entrepreneurial Ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stam, F.C.; Spigel, Ben

    2016-01-01

    This paper reviews and discusses the emergent entrepreneurial ecosystem approach. Entrepreneurial ecosystems are defined as a set of interdependent actors and factors coordinated in such a way that they enable productive entrepreneurship within a particular territory. The purpose of this paper is to

  19. Extrinsic regime shifts drive abrupt changes in regeneration dynamics at upper treeline in the Rocky Mountains, U.S.A.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliott, Grant P

    2012-07-01

    Given the widespread and often dramatic influence of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems, it is increasingly common for abrupt threshold changes to occur, yet explicitly testing for climate and ecological regime shifts is lacking in climatically sensitive upper treeline ecotones. In this study, quantitative evidence based on empirical data is provided to support the key role of extrinsic, climate-induced thresholds in governing the spatial and temporal patterns of tree establishment in these high-elevation environments. Dendroecological techniques were used to reconstruct a 420-year history of regeneration dynamics within upper treeline ecotones along a latitudinal gradient (approximately 44-35 degrees N) in the Rocky Mountains. Correlation analysis was used to assess the possible influence of minimum and maximum temperature indices and cool-season (November-April) precipitation on regional age-structure data. Regime-shift analysis was used to detect thresholds in tree establishment during the entire period of record (1580-2000), temperature variables significantly Correlated with establishment during the 20th century, and cool-season precipitation. Tree establishment was significantly correlated with minimum temperature during the spring (March-May) and cool season. Regime-shift analysis identified an abrupt increase in regional tree establishment in 1950 (1950-1954 age class). Coincident with this period was a shift toward reduced cool-season precipitation. The alignment of these climate conditions apparently triggered an abrupt increase in establishment that was unprecedented during the period of record. Two main findings emerge from this research that underscore the critical role of climate in governing regeneration dynamics within upper treeline ecotones. (1) Regional climate variability is capable of exceeding bioclimatic thresholds, thereby initiating synchronous and abrupt changes in the spatial and temporal patterns of tree establishment at broad

  20. Quantile index for gradual and abrupt change detection from CFB boiler sensor data in online settings

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maslov, A.; Pechenizkiy, M.; Kärkkäinen, T.; Tähtinen, M.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we consider the problem of online detection of gradual and abrupt changes in sensor data having high levels of noise and outliers. We propose a simple heuristic method based on the Quantile Index (QI) and study how robust this method is for detecting both gradual and abrupt changes

  1. Detecting Abrupt Change of Streamflow at Lintong Station of Wei River

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingjing Fan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available According to abrupt diagnosis of runoff, two methods, that is, moving approximate entropy and moving permutation entropy, are used to analyse the abrupt year of the daily river runoff from 1961 to 2006 at Lintong station of Wei River in Loess Plateau. The runoff series are divided into 4 stages. With the analysis of hydrological characters of different stages, we find that there are abrupt changes at the three years 1972, 1983, and 2002. The result shows that moving approximate entropy and moving permutation entropy methods are useful tools for abrupt diagnosis of runoff. The attribution of abrupt change at the Lintong runoff series is primarily due to the reduced precipitation, increased water conservancy project, increased water consumption of industry and agriculture, significantly decreased groundwater table, and increased evaporation.

  2. The adaptation rate of terrestrial ecosystems as a critical factor in global climate dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fuessler, J S; Gassmann, F [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1999-08-01

    A conceptual climate model describing regional two-way atmosphere-vegetation interaction has been extended by a simple qualitative scheme of ecosystem adaptation to drought stress. The results of this explorative study indicate that the role of terrestrial vegetation under different forcing scenarios depends crucially on the rate of the ecosystems adaptation to drought stress. The faster the adaptation of important ecosystems such as forests the better global climate is protected from abrupt climate changes. (author) 1 fig., 3 refs.

  3. Ecosystem thermodynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gomez Palacio, German Rau

    1998-01-01

    Ecology is no more a descriptive and self-sufficient science. Many viewpoints are needed simultaneously to give a full coverage of such complex systems: ecosystems. These viewpoints come from physics, chemistry, and nuclear physics, without a new far from equilibrium thermodynamics and without new mathematical tools such as catastrophe theory, fractal theory, cybernetics and network theory, the development of ecosystem science would never have reached the point of today. Some ideas are presented about the importance that concept such as energy, entropy, exergy information and none equilibrium have in the analysis of processes taking place in ecosystems

  4. A simple conceptual model of abrupt glacial climate events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Braun

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Here we use a very simple conceptual model in an attempt to reduce essential parts of the complex nonlinearity of abrupt glacial climate changes (the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger events to a few simple principles, namely (i the existence of two different climate states, (ii a threshold process and (iii an overshooting in the stability of the system at the start and the end of the events, which is followed by a millennial-scale relaxation. By comparison with a so-called Earth system model of intermediate complexity (CLIMBER-2, in which the events represent oscillations between two climate states corresponding to two fundamentally different modes of deep-water formation in the North Atlantic, we demonstrate that the conceptual model captures fundamental aspects of the nonlinearity of the events in that model. We use the conceptual model in order to reproduce and reanalyse nonlinear resonance mechanisms that were already suggested in order to explain the characteristic time scale of Dansgaard-Oeschger events. In doing so we identify a new form of stochastic resonance (i.e. an overshooting stochastic resonance and provide the first explicitly reported manifestation of ghost resonance in a geosystem, i.e. of a mechanism which could be relevant for other systems with thresholds and with multiple states of operation. Our work enables us to explicitly simulate realistic probability measures of Dansgaard-Oeschger events (e.g. waiting time distributions, which are a prerequisite for statistical analyses on the regularity of the events by means of Monte-Carlo simulations. We thus think that our study is an important advance in order to develop more adequate methods to test the statistical significance and the origin of the proposed glacial 1470-year climate cycle.

  5. An international contrast of rates of placental abruption: an age-period-cohort analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cande V Ananth

    Full Text Available Although rare, placental abruption is implicated in disproportionately high rates of perinatal morbidity and mortality. Understanding geographic and temporal variations may provide insights into possible amenable factors of abruption. We examined abruption frequencies by maternal age, delivery year, and maternal birth cohorts over three decades across seven countries.Women that delivered in the US (n = 863,879; 1979-10, Canada (4 provinces, n = 5,407,463; 1982-11, Sweden (n = 3,266,742; 1978-10, Denmark (n = 1,773,895; 1978-08, Norway (n = 1,780,271, 1978-09, Finland (n = 1,411,867; 1987-10, and Spain (n = 6,151,508; 1999-12 were analyzed. Abruption diagnosis was based on ICD coding. Rates were modeled using Poisson regression within the framework of an age-period-cohort analysis, and multi-level models to examine the contribution of smoking in four countries.Abruption rates varied across the seven countries (3-10 per 1000, Maternal age showed a consistent J-shaped pattern with increased rates at the extremes of the age distribution. In comparison to births in 2000, births after 2000 in European countries had lower abruption rates; in the US there was an increase in rate up to 2000 and a plateau thereafter. No birth cohort effects were evident. Changes in smoking prevalence partially explained the period effect in the US (P = 0.01 and Sweden (P<0.01.There is a strong maternal age effect on abruption. While the abruption rate has plateaued since 2000 in the US, all other countries show declining rates. These findings suggest considerable variation in abruption frequencies across countries; differences in the distribution of risk factors, especially smoking, may help guide policy to reduce abruption rates.

  6. Urban ecosystem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duvigneaud, P

    1974-01-01

    The author considers the town as an ecosystem. He examines its various subdivisions (climate, soil, structure, human and non-human communities, etc.) for which he chooses examples with particular reference to the city of Brussels.

  7. Modeling Hawaiian ecosystem degradation due to invasive plants under current and future climates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam E Vorsino

    Full Text Available Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with 0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75 as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1. This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions.

  8. Modeling Hawaiian ecosystem degradation due to invasive plants under current and future climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vorsino, Adam E.; Fortini, Lucas B.; Amidon, Fred A.; Miller, Stephen E.; Jacobi, James D.; Price, Jonathan P.; `Ohukani`ohi`a Gon, Sam; Koob, Gregory A.

    2014-01-01

    Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with 0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75) as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1). This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions.

  9. Detecting abrupt dynamic change based on changes in the fractal properties of spatial images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Qunqun; He, Wenping; Gu, Bin; Jiang, Yundi

    2017-10-01

    Many abrupt climate change events often cannot be detected timely by conventional abrupt detection methods until a few years after these events have occurred. The reason for this lag in detection is that abundant and long-term observational data are required for accurate abrupt change detection by these methods, especially for the detection of a regime shift. So, these methods cannot help us understand and forecast the evolution of the climate system in a timely manner. Obviously, spatial images, generated by a coupled spatiotemporal dynamical model, contain more information about a dynamic system than a single time series, and we find that spatial images show the fractal properties. The fractal properties of spatial images can be quantitatively characterized by the Hurst exponent, which can be estimated by two-dimensional detrended fluctuation analysis (TD-DFA). Based on this, TD-DFA is used to detect an abrupt dynamic change of a coupled spatiotemporal model. The results show that the TD-DFA method can effectively detect abrupt parameter changes in the coupled model by monitoring the changing in the fractal properties of spatial images. The present method provides a new way for abrupt dynamic change detection, which can achieve timely and efficient abrupt change detection results.

  10. A laboratory scale model of abrupt ice-shelf disintegration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macayeal, D. R.; Boghosian, A.; Styron, D. D.; Burton, J. C.; Amundson, J. M.; Cathles, L. M.; Abbot, D. S.

    2010-12-01

    An important mode of Earth’s disappearing cryosphere is the abrupt disintegration of ice shelves along the Peninsula of Antarctica. This disintegration process may be triggered by climate change, however the work needed to produce the spectacular, explosive results witnessed with the Larsen B and Wilkins ice-shelf events of the last decade comes from the large potential energy release associated with iceberg capsize and fragmentation. To gain further insight into the underlying exchanges of energy involved in massed iceberg movements, we have constructed a laboratory-scale model designed to explore the physical and hydrodynamic interactions between icebergs in a confined channel of water. The experimental apparatus consists of a 2-meter water tank that is 30 cm wide. Within the tank, we introduce fresh water and approximately 20-100 rectangular plastic ‘icebergs’ having the appropriate density contrast with water to mimic ice. The blocks are initially deployed in a tight pack, with all blocks arranged in a manner to represent the initial state of an integrated ice shelf or ice tongue. The system is allowed to evolve through time under the driving forces associated with iceberg hydrodynamics. Digitized videography is used to quantify how the system of plastic icebergs evolves between states of quiescence to states of mobilization. Initial experiments show that, after a single ‘agitator’ iceberg begins to capsize, an ‘avalanche’ of capsizing icebergs ensues which drives horizontal expansion of the massed icebergs across the water surface, and which stimulates other icebergs to capsize. A surprise initially evident in the experiments is the fact that the kinetic energy of the expanding mass of icebergs is only a small fraction of the net potential energy released by the rearrangement of mass via capsize. Approximately 85 - 90 % of the energy released by the system goes into water motion modes, including a pervasive, easily observed seich mode of the tank

  11. Tipping elements in the Arctic marine ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duarte, Carlos M; Agustí, Susana; Wassmann, Paul; Arrieta, Jesús M; Alcaraz, Miquel; Coello, Alexandra; Marbà, Núria; Hendriks, Iris E; Holding, Johnna; García-Zarandona, Iñigo; Kritzberg, Emma; Vaqué, Dolors

    2012-02-01

    The Arctic marine ecosystem contains multiple elements that present alternative states. The most obvious of which is an Arctic Ocean largely covered by an ice sheet in summer versus one largely devoid of such cover. Ecosystems under pressure typically shift between such alternative states in an abrupt, rather than smooth manner, with the level of forcing required for shifting this status termed threshold or tipping point. Loss of Arctic ice due to anthropogenic climate change is accelerating, with the extent of Arctic sea ice displaying increased variance at present, a leading indicator of the proximity of a possible tipping point. Reduced ice extent is expected, in turn, to trigger a number of additional tipping elements, physical, chemical, and biological, in motion, with potentially large impacts on the Arctic marine ecosystem.

  12. Strategic ecosystems of Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marquez Calle German

    2002-01-01

    The author relates the ecosystems in Colombia, he makes a relationship between ecosystems and population, utility of the ecosystems, transformation of the ecosystems and poverty and he shows a methodology of identification of strategic ecosystems

  13. Transient myocardial ischemia after abrupt withdrawal of antianginal therapy in chronic stable angina

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Egstrup, K

    1988-01-01

    In 47 patients with chronic stable angina and proven coronary artery disease, abrupt withdrawal of beta-adrenoceptor blocking agents either as monotherapy or in combination with calcium antagonists (group 1, n = 25) was compared with abrupt withdrawal of calcium antagonist monotherapy (group 2, n...... less than 0.05). These results indicate that a rebound increase in ischemic activity (mainly silent) occurs after abrupt withdrawal of beta-receptor blockade in patients with chronic stable angina. This increase in ischemic activity may be caused by increased myocardial oxygen demand....

  14. Abrupt vegetation transitions characterise long-term Amazonian peatland development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roucoux, K. H.; Baker, T. R.; Gosling, W. D.; Honorio Coronado, E.; Jones, T. D.; Lahteenoja, O.; Lawson, I. T.

    2012-04-01

    woodland with abundant Myrtaceae; (4) Expansion of Mauritia/Mauritiella palm swamp vegetation c. 1000 years ago representing establishment of the present day vegetation community. Our results show that the vegetation at this site has undergone continuous change throughout the period of peat formation. The sequence of vegetation development is not straightforward, being characterised by abrupt transitions between vegetation types and reversals in the apparent trajectory of change. Overall this suggests that the system is highly dynamic on centennial to millennial timescales. This complexity may reflect vegetation responses to a combination of external (physical) and internal (biological) drivers and the presence of thresholds in the system. Future investigations will work towards understanding the processes that drive these vegetation transitions and predicting peatland vegetation responses to future climatic change.

  15. Acquisition of an Underway CTD System for the Flow Encountering Abrupt Topography DRI

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-30

    Acquisition of an Underway CTD System for the Flow Encountering Abrupt Topography DRI T. M. Shaun Johnston Scripps Institution of Oceanography...westward flow in the North Equatorial Current (NEC) encounters tall, steep, submarine topography and islands. During the Flow Encountering Abrupt... Topography (FLEAT) DRI, investigators will determine: • Whether appreciable energy/momentum is lost from the large-scale NEC flow to smaller scales and

  16. LABOUR TERMINATION AND PERINATAL OUTCOME IN PREGNANT WOMEN WITH PLACENTA ABRUPTION WITH PPROM AND PROM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ranko Kutlesic

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available Placenta abruption is an obstetric accident which endangers life and health of both mother and embryo. It is one of the most serious obstetric complications, whose incidence ranges from 4.9-12.9 per 1,000 labours, and according to frequency, it represents the second cause of perinatal death. Retrospective analysis included the interval from 1996 to 2005. Total number of labours was analyzed and it was 32358. In addition, the number of labours complicated by placenta abruption was analyzed, and it was 119 or 0.37%. It analyzed the incidence of placenta abruption according to age of pregnancy and the integrity of embryonic membranes. It is established that there is no statistically significant difference in the incidence of placenta abruption appearing in pregnant women, with and without the disruption of embryonic membranes. The age of pregnant women was also analyzed, and it was found out that the pregnant women with placenta abruption and PPROM were 5 years older than those with placenta abruption without PPROM, and that this difference was very significant. Disruption duration was analyzed as well as the time from the first uterus bleeding to labour. The difference between PPROM and PROM duration was statistically significant, as well as the difference in duration between spontaneous and artificial rupture of embryonic membranes. The way of labour termination was analyzed in pregnant women with verified placenta abruption. In 80% of pregnant women, the labour was terminated by Caesarian section, and only 20% by vaginal labour. Also, the perinatal outcome was analyzed, according to Apgar score in the first and fifth minute. Apgar score showed that out of the total number of abruptions, 7 neonatuses was born dead (11.66%, 13 (21.66% was born in good condition (Apgar score>7, 26 (43.33% was marked with 4-7, while 14 (23.33% was in hard asphyxia (Apgar score 1-5.

  17. An international contrast of rates of placental abruption: an age-period-cohort analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ananth, Cande V; Keyes, Katherine M; Hamilton, Ava; Gissler, Mika; Wu, Chunsen; Liu, Shiliang; Luque-Fernandez, Miguel Angel; Skjærven, Rolv; Williams, Michelle A; Tikkanen, Minna; Cnattingius, Sven

    2015-01-01

    Although rare, placental abruption is implicated in disproportionately high rates of perinatal morbidity and mortality. Understanding geographic and temporal variations may provide insights into possible amenable factors of abruption. We examined abruption frequencies by maternal age, delivery year, and maternal birth cohorts over three decades across seven countries. Women that delivered in the US (n = 863,879; 1979-10), Canada (4 provinces, n = 5,407,463; 1982-11), Sweden (n = 3,266,742; 1978-10), Denmark (n = 1,773,895; 1978-08), Norway (n = 1,780,271, 1978-09), Finland (n = 1,411,867; 1987-10), and Spain (n = 6,151,508; 1999-12) were analyzed. Abruption diagnosis was based on ICD coding. Rates were modeled using Poisson regression within the framework of an age-period-cohort analysis, and multi-level models to examine the contribution of smoking in four countries. Abruption rates varied across the seven countries (3-10 per 1000), Maternal age showed a consistent J-shaped pattern with increased rates at the extremes of the age distribution. In comparison to births in 2000, births after 2000 in European countries had lower abruption rates; in the US there was an increase in rate up to 2000 and a plateau thereafter. No birth cohort effects were evident. Changes in smoking prevalence partially explained the period effect in the US (P = 0.01) and Sweden (Prate has plateaued since 2000 in the US, all other countries show declining rates. These findings suggest considerable variation in abruption frequencies across countries; differences in the distribution of risk factors, especially smoking, may help guide policy to reduce abruption rates.

  18. Self-reported smoking habits and serum cotinine levels in women with placental abruption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tikkanen, Minna; Surcel, Heljä-Marja; Bloigu, Aini; Nuutila, Mika; Ylikorkala, Olavi; Hiilesmaa, Vilho; Paavonen, Jorma

    2010-12-01

    smoking is an important risk factor for placental abruption with strong dose-dependency. Pregnant smokers often underreport tobacco use which can be objectively assessed by measuring serum cotinine levels. We examined the accuracy between self-reported smoking habits and early pregnancy serum cotinine levels in women with or without placental abruption. retrospective case-control study. university Hospital. a total of 175 women with placental abruption and 370 control women. serum samples collected during the first trimester were analyzed for serum cotinine levels. Cotinine concentration over 15 ng/ml was considered as the cutoff indicating active smoking. Smoking habits of the women and their partners were recorded at the same visit. placental abruption. of the cases of women with placental abruption, 27.4% reported smoking compared with 14.3% of the controls (p smoked daily correlated well with the cotinine levels (r = 0.68, p smoking habits correlate well with serum cotinine levels in Finland. Therefore, self-reported smoking can be considered as a risk marker for placental abruption.

  19. The association between maternal smoking and placenta abruption: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shobeiri, Fatemeh; Masoumi, Seyedeh Zahra; Jenabi, Ensiyeh

    2017-08-01

    Several epidemiological studies have determined that maternal smoking can increase the risk of placenta abruption. To date, only a meta-analysis has been performed for assessing the relationship between smoking and placenta abruption. This meta-analysis was conducted to estimate the association between smoking and the risk of placenta abruption. A literature search was conducted in major databases such as PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus from the earliest possible year to April 2016. The heterogeneity across studies was explored by Q-test and I 2 statistic. The publication bias was assessed using Begg's and Egger's tests. The results were reported using odds ratio (OR) estimate with its 95% confidence intervals (CI) using a random effects model. The literature search yielded 1167 publications until April 2016 with 4 309 610 participants. Based on OR estimates obtained from case-control and cohort studies, there was a significant association between smoking and placenta abruption (1.80; 95% CI: 1.75, 1.85). Based on the results of cohort studies, smoking and placenta abruption had a significant association (relative risk ratio: 1.65; 95% CI: 1.51, 1.80). Based on reports in epidemiological studies, we showed that smoking is a risk factor for placenta abruption.

  20. Association between placental abruption and caesarean section among patients at Khyber teaching hospital Peshawar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gul, S.; Jamal, T.; Rana, G.E.; Majid, A.; Iqbal, M.; Abrar, S.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Ante partum haemorrhage remains to be a major cause of morbidity and mortality. 30 percentage of this haemorrhage is attributed to placental abruption. Along with other adverse maternal outcomes, it increases the risk of Caesarean sections in patients, which is a public health concern. This study was conducted to find out whether any significant association exists between placental abruption and C-section in our set up. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted from July 26th, 2011 to May 1st, 2013 (i.e., 21 months) in the Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Khyber Teaching Hospital Peshawar on a sample of 334 patients who presented with antepartum haemorrhage after 28 weeks of gestation. All those patients with and without placental abruption were followed throughout pregnancy and labour to detect the risk of caesarean section. Results: Among study participants, parity had the highest dispersion while gestational age had the lowest. Caesarean section was performed on 26.3 percentage (95 percentage CI) of the study participants. Proportion of placental abruption among patients presenting with ante partum haemorrhage was 20.6 percentage, (95 percentage CI) out of which 7.5 percentage underwent C-section. Association between placental abruption and C-section was found significant at a=0.05 (ρ=0.03). Conclusion: Risk of caesarean section is increased in pregnancies complicated by placental abruption as compared to pregnancies complicated by other causes of ante partum haemorrhage. (author)

  1. Designer ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Awasthi, Ashutosh; Singh, Kripal; O'Grady, Audrey; Courtney, Ronan; Kalra, Alok; Singh, Rana Pratap; Cerda Bolinches, Artemio; Steinberger, Yosef; Patra, D.D.

    2016-01-01

    Increase in human population is accelerating the rate of land use change, biodiversity loss and habitat degradation, triggering a serious threat to life supporting ecosystem services. Existing strategies for biological conservation remain insufficient to achieve a sustainable human-nature

  2. Ecosystem thresholds, tipping points, and critical transitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munson, Seth M.; Reed, Sasha C.; Peñuelas, Josep; McDowell, Nathan G.; Sala, Osvaldo E.

    2018-01-01

    Abrupt shifts in ecosystems are cause for concern and will likelyintensify under global change (Scheffer et al., 2001). The terms‘thresho lds’, ‘tipping points’, and ‘critical transitions’ have beenused interchangeably to refer to sudden changes in the integrityor state of an ecosystem caused by environmental drivers(Holling, 1973; May, 1977). Threshold-based concepts havesignific antly aided our capacity to predict the controls overecosystem structure and functioning (Schwinning et al., 2004;Peters et al., 2007) and have become a framework to guide themanagement of natural resources (Glick et al., 2010; Allen et al.,2011). However, our unders tanding of how biotic and abioticdrivers interact to regulate ecosystem responses and of ways toforecast th e impending responses remain limited. Terrestrialecosystems, in particular, are already responding to globalchange in ways that are both transformati onal and difficult topredict due to strong heterogeneity across temporal and spatialscales (Pe~nuelas & Filella, 2001; McDowell et al., 2011;Munson, 2013; Reed et al., 2016). Comparing approaches formeasuring ecosystem performance in response to changingenvironme ntal conditions and for detecting stress and thresholdresponses can improve tradition al tests of resilience and provideearly warning signs of ecosystem transitions. Similarly, com-paring responses across ecosystems can offer insight into themechanisms that underlie variation in threshold responses.

  3. Structure, functioning, and cumulative stressors of Mediterranean deep-sea ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tecchio, Samuele; Coll, Marta; Sardà, Francisco

    2015-06-01

    Environmental stressors, such as climate fluctuations, and anthropogenic stressors, such as fishing, are of major concern for the management of deep-sea ecosystems. Deep-water habitats are limited by primary productivity and are mainly dependent on the vertical input of organic matter from the surface. Global change over the latest decades is imparting variations in primary productivity levels across oceans, and thus it has an impact on the amount of organic matter landing on the deep seafloor. In addition, anthropogenic impacts are now reaching the deep ocean. The Mediterranean Sea, the largest enclosed basin on the planet, is not an exception. However, ecosystem-level studies of response to varying food input and anthropogenic stressors on deep-sea ecosystems are still scant. We present here a comparative ecological network analysis of three food webs of the deep Mediterranean Sea, with contrasting trophic structure. After modelling the flows of these food webs with the Ecopath with Ecosim approach, we compared indicators of network structure and functioning. We then developed temporal dynamic simulations varying the organic matter input to evaluate its potential effect. Results show that, following the west-to-east gradient in the Mediterranean Sea of marine snow input, organic matter recycling increases, net production decreases to negative values and trophic organisation is overall reduced. The levels of food-web activity followed the gradient of organic matter availability at the seafloor, confirming that deep-water ecosystems directly depend on marine snow and are therefore influenced by variations of energy input, such as climate-driven changes. In addition, simulations of varying marine snow arrival at the seafloor, combined with the hypothesis of a possible fishery expansion on the lower continental slope in the western basin, evidence that the trawling fishery may pose an impact which could be an order of magnitude stronger than a climate-driven

  4. The association between uterine leiomyoma and placenta abruption: A meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenabi, Ensiyeh; Ebrahimzadeh Zagami, Samira

    2017-11-01

    Some epidemiological studies have found that uterine leiomyoma can increase the risk of placenta abruption. To date, the meta-analysis has not been performed for assessing the relationship between uterine leiomyoma and placenta abruption. This meta-analysis was conducted to estimate the association between uterine leiomyoma and the risk of placenta abruption. A literature search was conducted out in major databases PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus from the earliest possible year to October 2016. The heterogeneity across studies was explored by Q-test and I 2 statistic. The publication bias was assessed by Begg's and Egger's tests. The results were showed using odds ratio (OR) estimate with its 95% confidence intervals (CI) using a random-effects model. The literature search included 953 articles until October 2016 with 232,024 participants. Based on OR estimates obtained from case-control and cohort studies, there was significant association between uterine leiomyoma and placenta abruption (2.63; 95% CI: 1.38, 3.88). We showed based on reports in observational studies that uterine leiomyoma is a risk factor for placenta abruption.

  5. Detection and attribution of abrupt climate changes in the last one hundred years

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Wen; Wan Shiquan

    2008-01-01

    Based on physical backgrounds, the four time series of the Guliya (Tibetan plateau) ice core (GIC) δ 18 O, and three natural factors, i.e. the rotation rate of earth, sunspots, and El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signals, are decomposed into two hierarchies, i.e. more and less than 10-year hierarchies respectively, and then the running t-test is used to reanalyse the data before and after filtering with the purpose of investigating the contribution of natural factors to the abrupt climate changes in the last one hundred years. The results show that the GIC δ 18 O evolved with a quasi-period of 7–9 years, and the abrupt climate changes in the early 1960s and in the period from the end of the 1970s to the beginning of the 1980s resulted from the joint effect of the two hierarchies, in other words, the two interdecadal abrupt changes of climate in the last one hundred years were global. The interannual variations of ENSO and sunspots were the important triggering factors for the abrupt climate changes in the last one hundred years. At the same time, the method of Information Transfer (IT) is employed to estimate the contributions of ENSO signals and sunspots activities to the abrupt climate changes, and it is found that the contribution of the interannual variation of ENSO signals is relatively large

  6. Pre-delivery fibrinogen predicts adverse maternal or neonatal outcomes in patients with placental abruption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Liangcheng; Matsunaga, Shigetaka; Mikami, Yukiko; Takai, Yasushi; Terui, Katsuo; Seki, Hiroyuki

    2016-07-01

    Placental abruption is a severe obstetric complication of pregnancy that can cause disseminated intravascular coagulation and progress to massive post-partum hemorrhage. Coagulation disorder due to extreme consumption of fibrinogen is considered the main pathogenesis of disseminated intravascular coagulation in patients with placental abruption. The present study sought to determine if the pre-delivery fibrinogen level could predict adverse maternal or neonatal outcomes in patients with placental abruption. This retrospective medical chart review was conducted in a center for maternal, fetal, and neonatal medicine in Japan with 61 patients with placental abruption. Fibrinogen levels prior to delivery were collected and evaluated for the prediction of maternal and neonatal outcomes. The main outcome measures for maternal outcomes were disseminated intravascular coagulation and hemorrhage, and the main outcome measures for neonatal outcomes were Apgar score at 5 min, umbilical artery pH, and stillbirth. The receiver-operator curve and multivariate logistic regression analyses indicated that fibrinogen significantly predicted overt disseminated intravascular coagulation and the requirement of ≥6 red blood cell units, ≥10 fresh frozen plasma units, and ≥20 fresh frozen plasma units for transfusion. Moderate hemorrhage occurred in 71.5% of patients with a decrease in fibrinogen levels to 155 mg/dL. Fibrinogen could also predict neonatal outcomes. Umbilical artery pH neonatal outcomes with placental abruption. © 2016 Japan Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology. © 2016 Japan Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

  7. Resource subsidies between stream and terrestrial ecosystems under global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, Stefano; Muehlbauer, Jeffrey D.; Marti Roca, Maria Eugenia

    2016-01-01

    Streams and adjacent terrestrial ecosystems are characterized by permeable boundaries that are crossed by resource subsidies. Although the importance of these subsidies for riverine ecosystems is increasingly recognized, little is known about how they may be influenced by global environmental change. Drawing from available evidence, in this review we propose a conceptual framework to evaluate the effects of global change on the quality and spatiotemporal dynamics of stream–terrestrial subsidies. We illustrate how changes to hydrological and temperature regimes, atmospheric CO2 concentration, land use and the distribution of nonindigenous species can influence subsidy fluxes by affecting the biology and ecology of donor and recipient systems and the physical characteristics of stream–riparian boundaries. Climate-driven changes in the physiology and phenology of organisms with complex life cycles will influence their development time, body size and emergence patterns, with consequences for adjacent terrestrial consumers. Also, novel species interactions can modify subsidy dynamics via complex bottom-up and top-down effects. Given the seasonality and pulsed nature of subsidies, alterations of the temporal and spatial synchrony of resource availability to consumers across ecosystems are likely to result in ecological mismatches that can scale up from individual responses, to communities, to ecosystems. Similarly, altered hydrology, temperature, CO2 concentration and land use will modify the recruitment and quality of riparian vegetation, the timing of leaf abscission and the establishment of invasive riparian species. Along with morphological changes to stream–terrestrial boundaries, these will alter the use and fluxes of allochthonous subsidies associated with stream ecosystems. Future research should aim to understand how subsidy dynamics will be affected by key drivers of global change, including agricultural intensification, increasing water use and biotic

  8. No Abrupt Changes in redox conditions associated with the end-Permian marine ecosystem collapse in the east Greenland basin

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jesper K.; Shen, Y; Piasecki, Stefan

    2010-01-01

    compositions of pyrites from the East Greenland Basin. The size distributions of framboidal pyrites in sediments from a continuous section across the Permian–Triassic boundary reveal that sulfidic conditions in water columns were established about 0.7 m above the extinction event in the East Greenland Basin...

  9. Thunderstorm ground enhancements (TGEs) abruptly terminated by negative cloud-to-ground lightnings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chilingarian, A.; Hovsepyan, G.; Khanikyanc, G.; Pokhsraryan, D.; Soghomonyan, S.

    2016-01-01

    The relationship of lightnings and particle fluxes in the thunderclouds is not fully understood to date. Using the particle beams (the so-called Thunderstorm Ground Enhancements – TGEs) generated in the lower part of clouds by the strong electric fields as a probe, we investigate the characteristics of the related atmospheric discharges. The well-known effect of the TGE dynamics is the abrupt termination of the particle flux. We demonstrate that among 12 atmospheric discharges that abruptly terminated TGE all are the negative cloud-to-ground lightnings. The flux termination and lightning occurred at one and the same second. With new precise electronics on millisecond time scales we can see that particle flux decline occurred simultaneously with abrupt increase of electrostatic field after the return stroke of the lightning. Therefore, the declining of particle flux is connected with rearranging of charge centers in the cloud involving removal of the Lower Positive Charged Region (LPCR). (author)

  10. Conclusive evidence of abrupt coagulation inside the void during cyclic nanoparticle formation in reactive plasma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wetering, F. M. J. H. van de; Nijdam, S.; Beckers, J.

    2016-01-01

    In this letter, we present scanning electron microscopy (SEM) results that confirm in a direct way our earlier explanation of an abrupt coagulation event as the cause for the void hiccup. In a recent paper, we reported on the fast and interrupted expansion of voids in a reactive dusty argon–acetylene plasma. The voids appeared one after the other, each showing a peculiar, though reproducible, behavior of successive periods of fast expansion, abrupt contraction, and continued expansion. The abrupt contraction was termed “hiccup” and was related to collective coagulation of a new generation of nanoparticles growing in the void using relatively indirect methods: electron density measurements and optical emission spectroscopy. In this letter, we present conclusive evidence using SEM of particles collected at different moments in time spanning several growth cycles, which enables us to follow the nanoparticle formation process in great detail.

  11. Revealing Abrupt and Spontaneous Ruptures of Protein Native Structure under picoNewton Compressive Force Manipulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdhury, S Roy; Cao, Jin; He, Yufan; Lu, H Peter

    2018-03-27

    Manipulating protein conformations for exploring protein structure-function relationship has shown great promise. Although protein conformational changes under pulling force manipulation have been extensively studied, protein conformation changes under a compressive force have not been explored quantitatively. The latter is even more biologically significant and relevant in revealing protein functions in living cells associated with protein crowdedness, distribution fluctuations, and cell osmotic stress. Here we report our experimental observations on abrupt ruptures of protein native structures under compressive force, demonstrated and studied by single-molecule AFM-FRET spectroscopic nanoscopy. Our results show that the protein ruptures are abrupt and spontaneous events occurred when the compressive force reaches a threshold of 12-75 pN, a force amplitude accessible from thermal fluctuations in a living cell. The abrupt ruptures are sensitive to local environment, likely a general and important pathway of protein unfolding in living cells.

  12. High-resolution Greenland Ice Core data show abrupt climate change happens in few years

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steffensen, Jørgen Peder; Andersen, Katrine Krogh; Bigler, Matthias

    2008-01-01

    The last two abrupt warmings at the onset of our present warm interglacial period, interrupted by the Younger Dryas cooling event, were investigated at high temporal resolution from the North Greenland Ice Core Project ice core. The deuterium excess, a proxy of Greenland precipitation moisture...... source, switched mode within 1 to 3 years over these transitions and initiated a more gradual change (over 50 years) of the Greenland air temperature, as recorded by stable water isotopes. The onsets of both abrupt Greenland warmings were slightly preceded by decreasing Greenland dust deposition...

  13. Attention capture by abrupt onsets: re-visiting the priority tag model

    OpenAIRE

    Meera Mary Sunny; Adrian evon Muhlenen

    2013-01-01

    Abrupt onsets have been shown to strongly attract attention in a stimulus-driven, bottom-up manner. However, the precise mechanism that drives capture by onsets is still debated. According to the new object account, abrupt onsets capture attention because they signal the appearance of a new object. Yantis and Johnson (1990) used a visual search task and showed that up to four onsets can be automatically prioritized. However, in their study the number of onsets co-varied with the total number ...

  14. Potential effects of climate change on aquatic ecosystems of the Great Plains of North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Covich, A.P.; Fritz, S.C.; Lamb, P.J.; Marzolf, R.D.; Matthews, W.J.; Poiani, K.A.; Prepas, E.E.; Richman, M.B.; Winter, T.C.

    1997-01-01

    The Great Plains landscape is less topographically complex than most other regions within North America, but diverse aquatic ecosystems, such as playas, pothole lakes, ox-bow lakes, springs, groundwater aquifers, intermittent and ephemeral streams, as well as large rivers and wetlands, are highly dynamic and responsive to extreme climatic fluctuations. We review the evidence for climatic change that demonstrates the historical importance of extremes in north-south differences in summer temperatures and east-west differences in aridity across four large subregions. These physical driving forces alter density stratification, deoxygenation, decomposition and salinity. Biotic community composition and associated ecosystem processes of productivity and nutrient cycling respond rapidly to these climatically driven dynamics. Ecosystem processes also respond to cultural effects such as dams and diversions of water for irrigation, waste dilution and urban demands for drinking water and industrial uses. Distinguishing climatic from cultural effects in future models of aquatic ecosystem functioning will require more refinement in both climatic and economic forecasting. There is a need, for example, to predict how long-term climatic forecasts (based on both ENSO and global warming simulations) relate to the permanence and productivity of shallow water ecosystems. Aquatic ecologists, hydrologists, climatologists and geographers have much to discuss regarding the synthesis of available data and the design of future interdisciplinary research. ?? 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. Climate-driven mathematical models to understand the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of a chikungunya outbreak in the presence of widespread asymptomatic infection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dommar, Carlos J.; Robinson, Marguerite; Lowe, Rachel; Conan, Anne; Buchy, Philippe; Tarantola, Arnaud; Rodó, Xavier

    2014-05-01

    The emergence and persistence of human pathogens in the environment represents a constant threat to society, with global implications for human health, economies and ecosystems. Of particular concern are vector-borne diseases, such as dengue, malaria and chikungunya, which are increasing across their traditional ranges and continuing to infiltrate new regions. This unprecedented situation has been partly attributed to the increase in global temperatures in recent decades which has allowed non-native mosquito species to invade and successfully colonise previously inhospitable environments. The spatio-temporal evolution of these diseases is determined by the interaction of the host and vector, which is strongly dependent on social structures and mobility patterns. In turn, vector populations are thought to be driven by external environmental variables, such as precipitation and temperature. Furthermore, the ability of asymptomatic individuals to successfully transmit the infection and evade control measures can undermine public health interventions. We employed a stochastic model, which explicitly included asymptomatic and undocumented laboratory confirmed cases, and applied it to a documented outbreak in Cambodia in 2012 (Trapeang Roka village, Kampong Speu Province). The resulting estimate of the reproduction number was considerably higher than values obtained for previous outbreaks and highlights the importance of asymptomatic transmission. Subsequently, we develop an agent-based model (ABM), in which each individual is explicitly represented and vector populations are linked to precipitation estimates in a tropical setting. The model is implemented on both scale-free and regular networks. The spatio-temporal transmission of chikungunya is analysed and the presence of asymptomatic silent spreaders within the population is investigated in the context of implementing travel restrictions during an outbreak. Preventing the movement of symptomatic individuals alone is

  16. Acceptable Risk Analysis for Abrupt Environmental Pollution Accidents in Zhangjiakou City, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Xi; Zhang, Zhijiao; Dong, Lei; Liu, Jing; Borthwick, Alistair G L; Liu, Renzhi

    2017-04-20

    Abrupt environmental pollution accidents cause considerable damage worldwide to the ecological environment, human health, and property. The concept of acceptable risk aims to answer whether or not a given environmental pollution risk exceeds a societally determined criterion. This paper presents a case study on acceptable environmental pollution risk conducted through a questionnaire survey carried out between August and October 2014 in five representative districts and two counties of Zhangjiakou City, Hebei Province, China. Here, environmental risk primarily arises from accidental water pollution, accidental air pollution, and tailings dam failure. Based on 870 valid questionnaires, demographic and regional differences in public attitudes towards abrupt environmental pollution risks were analyzed, and risk acceptance impact factors determined. The results showed females, people between 21-40 years of age, people with higher levels of education, public servants, and people with higher income had lower risk tolerance. People with lower perceived risk, low-level risk knowledge, high-level familiarity and satisfaction with environmental management, and without experience of environmental accidents had higher risk tolerance. Multiple logistic regression analysis indicated that public satisfaction with environmental management was the most significant factor in risk acceptance, followed by perceived risk of abrupt air pollution, occupation, perceived risk of tailings dam failure, and sex. These findings should be helpful to local decision-makers concerned with environmental risk management (e.g., selecting target groups for effective risk communication) in the context of abrupt environmental accidents.

  17. Abrupt rather than gradual hormonal changes induce postpartum blues-like behavior in rats

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Doornbos, Bennard; Fokkema, Dirk S.; Molhoek, Margo; Tanke, Marit A. C.; Postema, Folkert; Korf, Jakob

    2009-01-01

    Aims: Postpartum blues is thought to be related to hormonal events accompanying delivery. We investigated whether blues-like symptoms depend on the rate of the decline of hormones, by comparing the behavioral consequences of an abrupt versus a gradual decline of gonadal hormones in an animal model.

  18. Fabrication and research of high purity germanium detectors with abrupt and thin diffusion layer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodriguez Cabal, A. E.; Diaz Garcia, A.

    1997-01-01

    A different high purity germanium detector's fabrication method is described. A very thin diffusion film with an abrupt change of the type of conductivity is obtained. The fine diffusion layer thickness makes possibly their utilization in experimental systems in which all the data are elaborated directly on the computer. (author) [es

  19. Clotting disorders and placental abruption: homocysteine--a new risk factor.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eskes, T.K.A.B.

    2001-01-01

    Placental abruption is due to the rupture of the uterine spiral artery. The placenta separates totally or partially from the uterine wall during pregnancy. This serious syndrome has a great risk for the mother (shock and disseminated intravascular coagulation) and her child (mortality or morbidity).

  20. Use of abrupt strain path change for determining subsequent yield surface

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kuwabara, T.; Kuroda, M.; Tvergaard, Viggo

    2000-01-01

    . In a biaxial tensile testing apparatus, a cruciform specimen is used, with the strains measured by a biaxial-strain gauge. Then, with the hydraulic pressure of two sets of opposing hydraulic cylinders servo-controlled independently, the testing apparatus can be used to prescribe an abrupt change of the strain...

  1. Astronomical Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neuenschwander, D. E.; Finkenbinder, L. R.

    2004-05-01

    Just as quetzals and jaguars require specific ecological habitats to survive, so too must planets occupy a tightly constrained astronomical habitat to support life as we know it. With this theme in mind we relate the transferable features of our elementary astronomy course, "The Astronomical Basis of Life on Earth." Over the last five years, in a team-taught course that features a spring break field trip to Costa Rica, we have introduced astronomy through "astronomical ecosystems," emphasizing astronomical constraints on the prospects for life on Earth. Life requires energy, chemical elements, and long timescales, and we emphasize how cosmological, astrophysical, and geological realities, through stabilities and catastrophes, create and eliminate niches for biological life. The linkage between astronomy and biology gets immediate and personal: for example, studies in solar energy production are followed by hikes in the forest to examine the light-gathering strategies of photosynthetic organisms; a lesson on tides is conducted while standing up to our necks in one on a Pacific beach. Further linkages between astronomy and the human timescale concerns of biological diversity, cultural diversity, and environmental sustainability are natural and direct. Our experience of teaching "astronomy as habitat" strongly influences our "Astronomy 101" course in Oklahoma as well. This "inverted astrobiology" seems to transform our student's outlook, from the universe being something "out there" into something "we're in!" We thank the SNU Science Alumni support group "The Catalysts," and the SNU Quetzal Education and Research Center, San Gerardo de Dota, Costa Rica, for their support.

  2. Spontaneous abrupt climate change due to an atmospheric blocking–sea-ice–ocean feedback in an unforced climate model simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Drijfhout, S.S.; Gleeson, E.; Dijkstra, H.A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073504467; Livina, V.

    2013-01-01

    Abrupt climate change is abundant in geological records, but climate models rarely have been able to simulate such events in response to realistic forcing. Here we report on a spontaneous abrupt cooling event, lasting for more than a century, with a temperature anomaly similar to that of the Little

  3. Subcooled He II heat transport in the channel with abrupt contractions/enlargements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maekawa, R.; Iwamoto, A.; Hamaguchi, S.; Mito, T.

    2002-01-01

    Heat transport mechanisms for subcooled He II in the channel with abrupt contractions and/or enlargements have been investigated under steady state conditions. The channel, made of G-10, contains various contraction geometries to simulate the cooling channel of a superconducting magnet. In other words, contractions are periodically placed along the channel to simulate the spacers within the magnet winding. A copper block heater inputs the heat to the channel from one end, while the other end is open to the He II bath. Temperature profiles were measured with temperature sensors embedded in the channel as a function of heat input. Calculations were performed using a simple one-dimensional turbulent heat transport equation and with geometric factor consideration. The effects on heat transport mechanisms in He II caused by abrupt change of channel geometry and size are discussed

  4. Observation and analysis of abrupt changes in the interplanetary plasma velocity and magnetic field.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, R. N.; Belcher, J. W.; Lazarus, A. J.

    1973-01-01

    This paper presents a limited study of the physical nature of abrupt changes in the interplanetary plasma velocity and magnetic field based on 19 day's data from the Pioneer 6 spacecraft. The period was chosen to include a high-velocity solar wind stream and low-velocity wind. Abrupt events were accepted for study if the sum of the energy density in the magnetic field and velocity changes was above a specified minimum. A statistical analysis of the events in the high-velocity solar wind stream shows that Alfvenic changes predominate. This conclusion is independent of whether steady state requirements are imposed on conditions before and after the event. Alfvenic changes do not dominate in the lower-speed wind. This study extends the plasma field evidence for outwardly propagating Alfvenic changes to time scales as small as 1 min (scale lengths on the order of 20,000 km).

  5. Abrupt GaP/Si hetero-interface using bistepped Si buffer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ping Wang, Y., E-mail: yanping.wang@insa-rennes.fr; Kuyyalil, J.; Nguyen Thanh, T.; Almosni, S.; Bernard, R.; Tremblay, R.; Da Silva, M.; Létoublon, A.; Rohel, T.; Tavernier, K.; Le Corre, A.; Cornet, C.; Durand, O. [UMR FOTON, CNRS, INSA Rennes, Rennes F-35708 (France); Stodolna, J.; Ponchet, A. [CEMES-CNRS, Université de Toulouse, 29 rue Jeanne Marvig, BP 94347, 31055 Toulouse Cedex 04 (France); Bahri, M.; Largeau, L.; Patriarche, G. [Laboratoire de Photonique et Nanostructures, CNRS UPR 20, Route de Nozay, Marcoussis 91460 (France); Magen, C. [LMA, INA-ARAID, and Departamento de Física de la Materia Condensada, Universidad de Zaragoza, 50018 Zaragoza (Spain)

    2015-11-09

    We evidence the influence of the quality of the starting Si surface on the III-V/Si interface abruptness and on the formation of defects during the growth of III-V/Si heterogeneous crystal, using high resolution transmission electron microscopy and scanning transmission electron microscopy. GaP layers were grown by molecular beam epitaxy on vicinal Si (001). The strong effect of the Si substrate chemical preparation is first demonstrated by studying structural properties of both Si homoepitaxial layer and GaP/Si heterostructure. It is then shown that choosing adequate chemical preparation conditions and subsequent III-V regrowth conditions enables the quasi-suppression of micro-twins in the epilayer. Finally, the abruptness of GaP/Si interface is found to be very sensitive to the Si chemical preparation and is improved by the use of a bistepped Si buffer prior to III-V overgrowth.

  6. Abrupt GaP/Si hetero-interface using bistepped Si buffer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ping Wang, Y.; Kuyyalil, J.; Nguyen Thanh, T.; Almosni, S.; Bernard, R.; Tremblay, R.; Da Silva, M.; Létoublon, A.; Rohel, T.; Tavernier, K.; Le Corre, A.; Cornet, C.; Durand, O.; Stodolna, J.; Ponchet, A.; Bahri, M.; Largeau, L.; Patriarche, G.; Magen, C.

    2015-01-01

    We evidence the influence of the quality of the starting Si surface on the III-V/Si interface abruptness and on the formation of defects during the growth of III-V/Si heterogeneous crystal, using high resolution transmission electron microscopy and scanning transmission electron microscopy. GaP layers were grown by molecular beam epitaxy on vicinal Si (001). The strong effect of the Si substrate chemical preparation is first demonstrated by studying structural properties of both Si homoepitaxial layer and GaP/Si heterostructure. It is then shown that choosing adequate chemical preparation conditions and subsequent III-V regrowth conditions enables the quasi-suppression of micro-twins in the epilayer. Finally, the abruptness of GaP/Si interface is found to be very sensitive to the Si chemical preparation and is improved by the use of a bistepped Si buffer prior to III-V overgrowth

  7. Abrupt treatments of hysteria during World War I, 1914-18.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macleod, Ad Sandy

    2018-06-01

    Case reports of the abrupt recovery of hysterical disorders during World War I (1914-18), though undoubtedly subject to publication bias, raise both aetiological and treatment issues regarding pseudo-neurological conversion symptoms. Published clinical anecdotes report circumstantial, psychotherapeutic, hypnotic, persuasive (and coercive) methods seemingly inducing recovery, and also responses to fright and alterations of consciousness. The ethics of modern medical practice would not allow many of these techniques, which were reported to be effective, even in the chronic cases.

  8. Role of CO2 and Southern Ocean winds in glacial abrupt climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Montoya

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The study of Greenland ice cores revealed two decades ago the abrupt character of glacial millennial-scale climate variability. Several triggering mechanisms have been proposed and confronted against growing proxy-data evidence. Although the implication of North Atlantic deep water (NADW formation reorganisations in glacial abrupt climate change seems robust nowadays, the final cause of these reorganisations remains unclear. Here, the role of CO2 and Southern Ocean winds is investigated using a coupled model of intermediate complexity in an experimental setup designed such that the climate system resides close to a threshold found in previous studies. An initial abrupt surface air temperature (SAT increase over the North Atlantic by 4 K in less than a decade, followed by a more gradual warming greater than 10 K on centennial timescales, is simulated in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 levels and/or enhancing southern westerlies. The simulated peak warming shows a similar pattern and amplitude over Greenland as registered in ice core records of Dansgaard-Oeschger (D/O events. This is accompanied by a strong Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC intensification. The AMOC strengthening is found to be caused by a northward shift of NADW formation sites into the Nordic Seas as a result of a northward retreat of the sea-ice front in response to higher temperatures. This leads to enhanced heat loss to the atmosphere as well as reduced freshwater fluxes via reduced sea-ice import into the region. In this way, a new mechanism that is consistent with proxy data is identified by which abrupt climate change can be promoted.

  9. Precise interpolar phasing of abrupt climate change during the last ice age

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,; Buizert, Christo; Adrian, Betty M.; Ahn, Jinho; Albert, Mary; Alley, Richard B.; Baggenstos, Daniel; Bauska, Thomas K.; Bay, Ryan C.; Bencivengo, Brian B.; Bentley, Charles R.; Brook, Edward J.; Chellman, Nathan J.; Clow, Gary D.; Cole-Dai, Jihong; Conway, Howard; Cravens, Eric; Cuffey, Kurt M.; Dunbar, Nelia W.; Edwards, Jon S.; Fegyveresi, John M.; Ferris, Dave G.; Fitzpatrick, Joan J.; Fudge, T. J.; Gibson, Chris J.; Gkinis, Vasileios; Goetz, Joshua J.; Gregory, Stephanie; Hargreaves, Geoffrey Mill; Iverson, Nels; Johnson, Jay A.; Jones, Tyler R.; Kalk, Michael L.; Kippenhan, Matthew J.; Koffman, Bess G.; Kreutz, Karl; Kuhl, Tanner W.; Lebar, Donald A.; Lee, James E.; Marcott, Shaun A.; Markle, Bradley R.; Maselli, Olivia J.; McConnell, Joseph R.; McGwire, Kenneth C.; Mitchell, Logan E.; Mortensen, Nicolai B.; Neff, Peter D.; Nishiizumi, Kunihiko; Nunn, Richard M.; Orsi, Anais J.; Pasteris, Daniel R.; Pedro, Joel B.; Pettit, Erin C.; Price, P. Buford; Priscu, John C.; Rhodes, Rachael H.; Rosen, Julia L.; Schauer, Andrew J.; Schoenemann, Spruce W.; Sendelbach, Paul J.; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P.; Shturmakov, Alexander J.; Sigl, Michael; Slawny, Kristina R.; Souney, Joseph M.; Sowers, Todd A.; Spencer, Matthew K.; Steig, Eric J.; Taylor, Kendrick C.; Twickler, Mark S.; Vaughn, Bruce H.; Voigt, Donald E.; Waddington, Edwin D.; Welten, Kees C.; Wendricks, Anthony W.; White, James W. C.; Winstrup, Mai; Wong, Gifford J.; Woodruff, Thomas E.

    2015-01-01

    The last glacial period exhibited abrupt Dansgaard–Oeschger climatic oscillations, evidence of which is preserved in a variety of Northern Hemisphere palaeoclimate archives1. Ice cores show that Antarctica cooled during the warm phases of the Greenland Dansgaard–Oeschger cycle and vice versa2, 3, suggesting an interhemispheric redistribution of heat through a mechanism called the bipolar seesaw4, 5, 6. Variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength are thought to have been important, but much uncertainty remains regarding the dynamics and trigger of these abrupt events7, 8, 9. Key information is contained in the relative phasing of hemispheric climate variations, yet the large, poorly constrained difference between gas age and ice age and the relatively low resolution of methane records from Antarctic ice cores have so far precluded methane-based synchronization at the required sub-centennial precision2, 3,10. Here we use a recently drilled high-accumulation Antarctic ice core to show that, on average, abrupt Greenland warming leads the corresponding Antarctic cooling onset by 218 ± 92 years (2σ) for Dansgaard–Oeschger events, including the Bølling event; Greenland cooling leads the corresponding onset of Antarctic warming by 208 ± 96 years. Our results demonstrate a north-to-south directionality of the abrupt climatic signal, which is propagated to the Southern Hemisphere high latitudes by oceanic rather than atmospheric processes. The similar interpolar phasing of warming and cooling transitions suggests that the transfer time of the climatic signal is independent of the AMOC background state. Our findings confirm a central role for ocean circulation in the bipolar seesaw and provide clear criteria for assessing hypotheses and model simulations of Dansgaard–Oeschger dynamics.

  10. Refractive index sensor based on an abrupt taper Michelson interferometer in a single-mode fiber.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Zhaobing; Yam, Scott S-H; Loock, Hans-Peter

    2008-05-15

    A simple refractive index sensor based on a Michelson interferometer in a single-mode fiber is constructed and demonstrated. The sensor consists of a single symmetrically abrupt taper region in a short piece of single-mode fiber that is terminated by approximately 500 nm thick gold coating. The sensitivity of the new sensor is similar to that of a long-period-grating-type sensor, and its ease of fabrication offers a low-cost alternative to current sensing applications.

  11. A Fast Framework for Abrupt Change Detection Based on Binary Search Trees and Kolmogorov Statistic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Jin-Peng; Qi, Jie; Zhang, Qing

    2016-01-01

    Change-Point (CP) detection has attracted considerable attention in the fields of data mining and statistics; it is very meaningful to discuss how to quickly and efficiently detect abrupt change from large-scale bioelectric signals. Currently, most of the existing methods, like Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistic and so forth, are time-consuming, especially for large-scale datasets. In this paper, we propose a fast framework for abrupt change detection based on binary search trees (BSTs) and a modified KS statistic, named BSTKS (binary search trees and Kolmogorov statistic). In this method, first, two binary search trees, termed as BSTcA and BSTcD, are constructed by multilevel Haar Wavelet Transform (HWT); second, three search criteria are introduced in terms of the statistic and variance fluctuations in the diagnosed time series; last, an optimal search path is detected from the root to leaf nodes of two BSTs. The studies on both the synthetic time series samples and the real electroencephalograph (EEG) recordings indicate that the proposed BSTKS can detect abrupt change more quickly and efficiently than KS, t-statistic (t), and Singular-Spectrum Analyses (SSA) methods, with the shortest computation time, the highest hit rate, the smallest error, and the highest accuracy out of four methods. This study suggests that the proposed BSTKS is very helpful for useful information inspection on all kinds of bioelectric time series signals. PMID:27413364

  12. A Fast Framework for Abrupt Change Detection Based on Binary Search Trees and Kolmogorov Statistic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Jin-Peng; Qi, Jie; Zhang, Qing

    2016-01-01

    Change-Point (CP) detection has attracted considerable attention in the fields of data mining and statistics; it is very meaningful to discuss how to quickly and efficiently detect abrupt change from large-scale bioelectric signals. Currently, most of the existing methods, like Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistic and so forth, are time-consuming, especially for large-scale datasets. In this paper, we propose a fast framework for abrupt change detection based on binary search trees (BSTs) and a modified KS statistic, named BSTKS (binary search trees and Kolmogorov statistic). In this method, first, two binary search trees, termed as BSTcA and BSTcD, are constructed by multilevel Haar Wavelet Transform (HWT); second, three search criteria are introduced in terms of the statistic and variance fluctuations in the diagnosed time series; last, an optimal search path is detected from the root to leaf nodes of two BSTs. The studies on both the synthetic time series samples and the real electroencephalograph (EEG) recordings indicate that the proposed BSTKS can detect abrupt change more quickly and efficiently than KS, t-statistic (t), and Singular-Spectrum Analyses (SSA) methods, with the shortest computation time, the highest hit rate, the smallest error, and the highest accuracy out of four methods. This study suggests that the proposed BSTKS is very helpful for useful information inspection on all kinds of bioelectric time series signals.

  13. Measuring Entrepreneurial Ecosystems

    OpenAIRE

    Stam, F.C.

    2017-01-01

    How can entrepreneurial ecosystems and productive entrepreneurship can be traced empirically and how is entrepreneurship related to entrepreneurial ecosystems. The analyses in this chapter show the value of taking a systems view on the context of entrepreneurship. We measure entrepreneurial ecosystem elements and use these to compose an entrepreneurial ecosystem index. Next, we measure the output of entrepreneurial ecosystems with different indicators of high-growth firms. We use the 12 provi...

  14. Mapping Ecosystem Services

    OpenAIRE

    Georgiev,Teodor; Burkhard,Benjamin; Maes,Joachim

    2017-01-01

    Ecosystem services are the contributions of ecosystem structure and function (in combination with other inputs) to human well-being. That means, humankind is strongly dependent on well-functioning ecosystems and natural capital that are the base for a constant flow of ecosystem services from nature to society. Therefore ecosystem services have the potential to become a major tool for policy and decision making on global, national, regional and local scales. Possible applications are manifold:...

  15. Transformation of Digital Ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henningsson, Stefan; Hedman, Jonas

    2014-01-01

    the Digital Ecosystem Technology Transformation (DETT) framework for explaining technology-based transformation of digital ecosystems by integrating theories of business and technology ecosystems. The framework depicts ecosystem transformation as distributed and emergent from micro-, meso-, and macro- level......In digital ecosystems, the fusion relation between business and technology means that the decision of technical compatibility of the offering is also the decision of how to position the firm relative to the coopetive relations that characterize business ecosystems. In this article we develop...... coopetition. The DETT framework consists an alternative to the existing explanations of digital ecosystem transformation as the rational management of one central actor balancing ecosystem tensions. We illustrate the use of the framework by a case study of transformation in the digital payment ecosystem...

  16. Ecosystem degradation in India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinha, B.N.

    1990-01-01

    Environmental and ecosystem studies have assumed greater relevance in the last decade of the twentieth century than even before. The urban settlements are becoming over-crowded and industries are increasingly polluting the air, water and sound in our larger metropolises. Degradation of different types of ecosystem are discussed in this book, Ecosystem Degradation in India. The book has been divided into seven chapters: Introduction, Coastal and Delta Ecosystem, River Basin Ecosystem, Mountain Ecosystem, Forest Ecosystem, Urban Ecosystem and the last chapter deals with the Environmental Problems and Planning. In the introduction the environmental and ecosystem degradation problems in India is highlighted as a whole while in other chapters mostly case studies by experts who know their respective terrain very intimately are included. The case study papers cover most part of India and deal with local problems, stretching from east coast to west coast and from Kashmir to Kanyakumari. (author)

  17. Tree growth and vegetation activity at the ecosystem-scale in the eastern Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coulthard, Bethany L.; Touchan, Ramzi; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Meko, David M.; Sivrikaya, Fatih

    2017-08-01

    Linking annual tree growth with remotely-sensed terrestrial vegetation indices provides a basis for using tree rings as proxies for ecosystem primary productivity over large spatial and long temporal scales. In contrast with most previous tree ring/remote sensing studies that have focused on temperature-limited boreal and taiga environments, here we compare the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with a network of Pinus brutia tree ring width chronologies collected along ecological gradients in semiarid Cyprus, where both radial tree growth and broader vegetation activity are controlled by drought. We find that the interaction between precipitation, elevation, and land-cover type generate a relationship between radial tree growth and NDVI. While tree ring chronologies at higher-elevation forested sites do not exhibit climate-driven linkages with NDVI, chronologies at lower-elevation dry sites are strongly correlated with NDVI during the winter precipitation season. At lower-elevation sites, land cover is dominated by grasslands and shrublands and tree ring widths operate as a proxy for ecosystem-scale vegetation activity. Tree rings can therefore be used to reconstruct productivity in water-limited grasslands and shrublands, where future drought stress is expected to alter the global carbon cycle, biodiversity, and ecosystem functioning in the 21st century.

  18. The Abrupt Onset of the Modern South Asian Monsoon Winds (iodp Exp. 359)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betzler, C.; Eberli, G. P.; Kroon, D.; Wright, J. D.; Swart, P. K.; Nath, B. N.; Reijmer, J.; Alvarez Zarikian, C. A.

    2016-12-01

    The South Asian Monson (SAM) is one of the most extreme features in Earth's climate system, yet its initiation and variations are not well established. The SAM is a seasonal reversal of winds accompanied by changes in precipitation with heavy rain during the summer monsoon. It is one of the most intense annually recurring climatic elements and of immense importance in supplying moisture to the Indian subcontinent thus affecting human population and vegetation, as well as marine biota in the surrounding seas. The seasonal precipitation change is one of the SAM elements most noticed on land, whereas the reversal of the wind regime is the dominating driver of circulation in the central and northern Indian Ocean realm. New data acquired during International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 359 from the Inner Sea of the Maldives provide a previously unread archive that reveals an abrupt onset of the SAM-linked ocean circulation pattern and its relationship to the long term Neogene climate cooling. In particular it registers ocean current fluctuations and changes of intermediate water mass properties for the last 25 myrs that are directly related to the monsoon. Dating the deposits of SAM wind-driven currents yields an age of 12.9 Ma indicating an abrupt SAM onset, over a short period of 300 kyrs. This coincided with the Indian Ocean Oxygen Minimum Zone expansion as revealed by geochemical tracers and the onset of upwelling reflected by the sediment's content of sedimentary organic matter. A weaker `proto-monsoon' existed between 12.9 and 25 Ma, as mirrored by the sedimentary signature of dust influx. Abrupt SAM initiation favors a strong influence of climate in addition to the tectonic control, and we propose that the post Miocene Climate Optimum cooling, together with increased continentalization and establishment of the bipolar ocean circulation, i.e. the beginning of the modern world, shifted the monsoon over a threshold towards the modern system.

  19. Descolamento Crônico da Placenta: Relato de Caso Chronic Placental Abruption: A Case Report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Júlio César Faria Couto

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available O descolamento crônico da placenta é um evento raro cujo diagnóstico pode ser feito precocemente utilizando-se a ultra-sonografia. Sangramento vaginal e hipertonia uterina são sinais clínicos encontrados de forma infreqüente. A fisiopatologia do descolamento crônico é pouco conhecida e a importância dos fatores de risco na sua gênese é controversa. O resultado perinatal é insatisfatório, com alta incidência de prematuridade e mortalidade fetal e neonatal. A conduta obstétrica baseia-se na idade gestacional, condições do feto e evolução do hematoma. Nós apresentamos o caso de uma gestação, complicada por descolamento crônico da placenta identificado na 14ª semana de gestação, que evoluiu com crescimento intra-uterino restrito, oligoidrâmnio e óbito neonatal.Chronic placental abruption is a rare condition that can be early detected by ultrasound. Vaginal bleeding and uterine excitability can be present in an infrequent way. Chronic placental abruption physiopathology is unknown and there are no consistent medical risks that predispose to this condition. The perinatal outcome is poor and is often associated with prematurity and fetal or perinatal death. The obstetric treatment depends on the gestational age, fetal conditions and the size of the clot. We present a case of a chronic placental abruption diagnosed in a 14-week gestation complicated by intrauterine growth retardation, oligohydramnios and perinatal death.

  20. Simulating the vegetation response in western Europe to abrupt climate changes under glacial background conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.-N. Woillez

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The last glacial period has been punctuated by two types of abrupt climatic events, the Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO and Heinrich (HE events. These events, recorded in Greenland ice and in marine sediments, involved changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC and led to major changes in the terrestrial biosphere. Here we use the dynamical global vegetation model ORCHIDEE to simulate the response of vegetation to abrupt changes in the AMOC strength. We force ORCHIDEE offline with outputs from the IPSL_CM4 general circulation model, in which the AMOC is forced to change by adding freshwater fluxes in the North Atlantic. We investigate the impact of a collapse and recovery of the AMOC, at different rates, and focus on Western Europe, where many pollen records are available for comparison. The impact of an AMOC collapse on the European mean temperatures and precipitations simulated by the GCM is relatively small but sufficient to drive an important regression of forests and expansion of grasses in ORCHIDEE, in qualitative agreement with pollen data for an HE event. On the contrary, a run with a rapid shift of the AMOC to a hyperactive state of 30 Sv, mimicking the warming phase of a DO event, does not exhibit a strong impact on the European vegetation compared to the glacial control state. For our model, simulating the impact of an HE event thus appears easier than simulating the abrupt transition towards the interstadial phase of a DO. For both a collapse or a recovery of the AMOC, the vegetation starts to respond to climatic changes immediately but reaches equilibrium about 200 yr after the climate equilibrates, suggesting a possible bias in the climatic reconstructions based on pollen records, which assume equilibrium between climate and vegetation. However, our study does not take into account vegetation feedbacks on the atmosphere.

  1. Early warning signals of abrupt temperature change in different regions of China over the past 50 years

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tong Ji-Long; Wu Hao; Hou Wei; He Wen-Ping; Zhou Jie

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, the early warning signals of abrupt temperature change in different regions of China are investigated. Seven regions are divided on the basis of different climate temperature patterns, obtained through the rotated empirical orthogonal function, and the signal-to-noise temperature ratios for each region are then calculated. Based on the concept of critical slowing down, the temperature data that contain noise in the different regions of China are preprocessed to study the early warning signals of abrupt climate change. First, the Mann–Kendall method is used to identify the instant of abrupt climate change in the temperature data. Second, autocorrelation coefficients that can identify critical slowing down are calculated. The results show that the critical slowing down phenomenon appeared in temperature data about 5–10 years before abrupt climate change occurred, which indicates that the critical slowing down phenomenon is a possible early warning signal for abrupt climate change, and that noise has less influence on the detection results of the early warning signals. Accordingly, this demonstrates that the model is reliable in identifying the early warning signals of abrupt climate change based on detecting the critical slowing down phenomenon, which provides an experimental basis for the actual application of the method. (geophysics, astronomy, and astrophysics)

  2. Linear trend and abrupt changes of climate indices in the arid region of northwestern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Huaijun; Pan, Yingping; Chen, Yaning; Ye, Zhengwei

    2017-11-01

    In recent years, climate extreme events have caused increasing direct economic and social losses in the arid region of northwestern China. Based on daily temperature and precipitation data from 1960 to 2010, this paper discussed the linear trend and abrupt changes of climate indices. The general evolution was obtained by the empirical orthogonal function (EOF), the Mann-Kendall test, and the distribution-free cumulative sum chart (CUSUM) test. The results are as follows: (1) climate showed a warming trend at annual and seasonal scale, with all temperature indices exhibiting statistically significant changes. The warm indices have increased, with 1.37%days/decade of warm days (TX90p), 0.17 °C/decade of warmest days (TXx) and 1.97 days/decade of warm spell duration indicator (WSDI), respectively. The cold indices have decreased, with - 1.89%days/decade, 0.65 °C/decade and - 0.66 days/decade for cold nights (TN10p), coldest nights (TNn) and cold spell duration indicator (CSDI), respectively. The precipitation indices have also increased significantly, coupled with the changes of magnitude (max 1-day precipitation amount (RX1day)), frequency (rain day (R0.1)), and duration (consecutive dry days (CDD)). (2) Abrupt changes of the annual regional precipitation indices and the minimum temperature indices were observed around 1986, and that of the maximum temperature indices were observed in 1996. (3) The EOF1 indicated the overall coherent distribution for the whole study area, and its principal component (PC1) was also observed, showing a significant linear trend with an abrupt change, which were in accordance with the regional observation results. EOF2 and EOF3 show contrasts between the southern and northern study areas, and between the eastern and western study areas, respectively, whereas no significant tendency was observed for their PCs. Hence, the climate indices have changed significantly, with linear trends and abrupt changes noted for all climate indices

  3. Abrupt onset of muscle dysfunction after treatment for Grave's disease: a case report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernán Martínez, José; Sánchez, Alfredo; Torres, Oberto; Palermo, Coromoto; Santiago, Mónica; Figueroa, Carlos; Trinidad, Rafael; Mangual, Michelle; Gutierrez, Madeleine; González, Eva; Miranda, María de Lourdes

    2014-01-01

    Myopathy is a known complication of hypothyroidism, commonly characterized by an elevation in Creatine Kinase (CPK) due to increase capillary permeability proportional to the hypothyroid state. Thyroid hormone is important for the expression of fast myofibrillar proteins in the muscle. In hypothyroidism the expression of these proteins are deficient and there is an increase accumulation of slow myofibrillar proteins. A rapid or abrupt descend in thyroid hormones caused by radioiodine therapy after prolonged hyperthyroidism can lead to local hypothyroid state within the muscle tissue, resulting in CPK elevation and hypothyroid myopathy. Hormone replacement leads to resolution of symptoms and normalization of muscle enzymes serum levels.

  4. Beam losses due to abrupt crab cavity failures in the LHC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baer, T.; Barranco, J.; Calaga, R.; Tomas, R.; Wenninger, B.; Yee, B.; Zimmermann, F.

    2011-01-01

    A major concern for the implementation of crab crossing in a future High-Luminosity LHC (HL-LHC) is machine protection in an event of a fast crab-cavity failure. Certain types of abrupt crab-cavity amplitude and phase changes are simulated to characterize the effect of failures on the beam and the resulting particle-loss signatures. The time-dependent beam loss distributions around the ring and particle trajectories obtained from the simulations allow for a first assessment of the resulting beam impact on LHC collimators and on sensitive components around the ring. Results for the nominal LHC lattice is presented.

  5. Effects of Abrupt Variations of Solar Wind Dynamic Pressure on the High-Latitude Ionosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igino Coco

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We show the results of a statistical study on the effects in the high-latitude ionosphere of abrupt variations of solar wind dynamic pressure, using Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN data in both hemispheres. We find that, during periods of quiet ionospheric conditions, the amount of radar backscatter increases when a variation in the dynamic pressure occurs, both positive (increase of the pressure and negative (decrease of the pressure. We also investigate the behaviour of the Cross-Polar Cap Potential (CPCP during pressure variations and show preliminary results.

  6. A Novel Approach to Detect Faults Occurring During Power Swings by Abrupt Change of Impedance Trajectory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khodaparast, Jalal; Khederzadeh, M.; Silva, Filipe Miguel Faria da

    2017-01-01

    The main purpose of power swing blocking is to distinguish faults from power swings. However, faults occurred during a power swing should still be detected and cleared promptly. This paper proposes an index based on detecting abrupt jump of impedance trajectory by utilization of the predicting...... of Taylor expansion is used to decrease the corrugation effect of impedance estimation and increase the reliability of the proposed method. Furthermore, in order to increase the selectivity of the proposed method, the proposed index is armed with phase comparison logic to detect internal faults...

  7. Measuring Entrepreneurial Ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stam, F.C.

    How can entrepreneurial ecosystems and productive entrepreneurship can be traced empirically and how is entrepreneurship related to entrepreneurial ecosystems. The analyses in this chapter show the value of taking a systems view on the context of entrepreneurship. We measure entrepreneurial

  8. Coral reefs - Specialized ecosystems

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Wafar, M.V.M.

    This paper discusses briefly some aspects that characterize and differentiate coral reef ecosystems from other tropical marine ecosystems. A brief account on the resources that are extractable from coral reefs, their susceptibility to natural...

  9. Ecosystem classification, Chapter 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    M.J. Robin-Abbott; L.H. Pardo

    2011-01-01

    The ecosystem classification in this report is based on the ecoregions developed through the Commission for Environmental Cooperation (CEC) for North America (CEC 1997). Only ecosystems that occur in the United States are included. CEC ecoregions are described, with slight modifications, below (CEC 1997) and shown in Figures 2.1 and 2.2. We chose this ecosystem...

  10. On Man and Ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brookfield, Harold

    1982-01-01

    Distinctions between natural ecosystems and human ecosystems are misleading. Natural and social sciences can be integrated through the concept of a "human-use ecosystem," in which social scientists analyze the community, household, and individual, and natural scientists analyze the land. Includes a case study of St. Kitts. (KC)

  11. Global Ecosystem Restoration Index

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fernandez, Miguel; Garcia, Monica; Fernandez, Nestor

    2015-01-01

    The Global ecosystem restoration index (GERI) is a composite index that integrates structural and functional aspects of the ecosystem restoration process. These elements are evaluated through a window that looks into a baseline for degraded ecosystems with the objective to assess restoration...

  12. Towards ecosystem accounting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duku, C.; Rathjens, H.; Zwart, S.J.; Hein, L.

    2015-01-01

    Ecosystem accounting is an emerging field that aims to provide a consistent approach to analysing environment-economy interactions. One of the specific features of ecosystem accounting is the distinction between the capacity and the flow of ecosystem services. Ecohydrological modelling to support

  13. Rights to ecosystem services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Davidson, M.

    2014-01-01

    Ecosystem services are the benefits people obtain from ecosystems. Many of these services are provided outside the borders of the land where they are produced; this article investigates who is entitled to these non-excludable ecosystem services from two libertarian perspectives. Taking a

  14. Abrupt increases in Amazonian tree mortality due to drought–fire interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brando, Paulo Monteiro; Balch, Jennifer K.; Nepstad, Daniel C.; Morton, Douglas C.; Putz, Francis E.; Coe, Michael T.; Silvério, Divino; Macedo, Marcia N.; Davidson, Eric A.; Nóbrega, Caroline C.; Alencar, Ane; Soares-Filho, Britaldo S.

    2014-01-01

    Interactions between climate and land-use change may drive widespread degradation of Amazonian forests. High-intensity fires associated with extreme weather events could accelerate this degradation by abruptly increasing tree mortality, but this process remains poorly understood. Here we present, to our knowledge, the first field-based evidence of a tipping point in Amazon forests due to altered fire regimes. Based on results of a large-scale, long-term experiment with annual and triennial burn regimes (B1yr and B3yr, respectively) in the Amazon, we found abrupt increases in fire-induced tree mortality (226 and 462%) during a severe drought event, when fuel loads and air temperatures were substantially higher and relative humidity was lower than long-term averages. This threshold mortality response had a cascading effect, causing sharp declines in canopy cover (23 and 31%) and aboveground live biomass (12 and 30%) and favoring widespread invasion by flammable grasses across the forest edge area (80 and 63%), where fires were most intense (e.g., 220 and 820 kW⋅m−1). During the droughts of 2007 and 2010, regional forest fires burned 12 and 5% of southeastern Amazon forests, respectively, compared with Amazon forests. Future projections of vegetation responses to climate change across drier portions of the Amazon require more than simulation of global climate forcing alone and must also include interactions of extreme weather events, fire, and land-use change. PMID:24733937

  15. Multiple equilibria in a stochastic implementation of DICE with abrupt climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lempert, Robert J.; Sanstad, Alan H.; Schlesinger, Michael E.

    2006-01-01

    Integrated assessment modeling of global climate change has focused primarily on gradually occurring changes in the climate system. However, atmospheric and earth scientists have become increasingly concerned that the climate system may be subject to abrupt, discontinuous changes on short time scales, and that anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions could trigger such shifts. Incorporating this type of climate dynamics into economic or integrated assessment models can result in model non-convexity and multiple equilibria, and thus complicate policy analysis relative to models with unique, globally optimal policies. Using a version of the Nordhaus DICE model amended in previous research by Keller et al. (2004) [Keller, Klaus, Benjamin M. Bolker, David F. Bradford, 2004. Uncertain climate thresholds and optimal economic growth. Journal of environmental economics and management 48 (1), 723-741], in conjunction with a stochastic global optimization algorithm, we generate 'level sets' of solutions, which helps identify multiple equilibria resulting from the potential abrupt cessation of the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation. We discuss the implications of this model geometry for formulating greenhouse-gas abatement policy under uncertainty and suggest that this general approach may be useful for addressing a wide range of model non-convexities including those related to endogenous technological change

  16. Temperature independent refractive index measurement using a fiber Bragg grating on abrupt tapered tip

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomes, André D.; Silveira, Beatriz; Warren-Smith, Stephen C.; Becker, Martin; Rothhardt, Manfred; Frazão, Orlando

    2018-05-01

    A fiber Bragg grating was inscribed in an abrupt fiber taper using a femtosecond laser and phase-mask interferometer. The abrupt taper transition allows to excite a broad range of guided modes with different effective refractive indices that are reflected at different wavelengths according to Bragg's law. The multimode-Bragg reflection expands over 30 nm in the telecom-C-band. This corresponds to a mode-field overlap of up to 30% outside of the fiber, making the device suitable for evanescent field sensing. Refractive index and temperature measurements are performed for different reflection peaks. Temperature independent refractive index measurements are achieved by considering the difference between the wavelength shifts of two measured reflection peaks. A minimum refractive index sensitivity of 16 ± 1 nm/RIU was obtained in a low refractive index regime (1.3475-1.3720) with low influence of temperature (-0.32 ± 0.06 pm/°C). The cross sensitivity for this structure is 2.0 × 10-5 RIU/°C. The potential for simultaneous measurement of refractive index and temperature is also studied.

  17. The ability of computed tomography to diagnose placental abruption in the trauma patient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopelman, Tammy R; Berardoni, Nicole E; Manriquez, Maria; Gridley, Daniel; Vail, Sydney J; Pieri, Paola G; O'Neill; Pressman, Melissa A

    2013-01-01

    Fetal demise following trauma remains a devastating complication largely owing to placental injury and abruption. Our objective was to determine if abdominopelvic computed tomographic (CT) imaging can assess for placental abruption (PA) when obtained to exclude associated maternal injuries. Retrospective review of pregnant trauma patients of 20-week gestation or longer presenting to a trauma center during a 7-year period who underwent CT imaging as part of their initial evaluation. Radiographic images were reviewed by a radiologist for evidence of PA and classified based on percentage of visualized placental enhancement. Blinded to CT results, charts were reviewed by an obstetrician for clinical evidence of PA and classified as strongly positive, possibly positive, or no evidence. A total of 176 patients met inclusion criteria. CT imaging revealed evidence of PA in 61 patients (35%). As the percentage of placental enhancement decreased, patients were more likely to have strong clinical manifestations of PA, reaching statistical significance when enhancement was less than 50%. CT imaging evidence of PA was apparent in all patients who required delivery for nonassuring fetal heart tones. CT imaging evaluation of the placenta can accurately identify PA and therefore can help stratify patients at risk for fetal complications. The likelihood of requiring delivery increased as placental enhancement declined to less than 25%. Diagnostic study, level III.

  18. The Avoidance of the Little Sibling of the Big Rip Abrupt Event by a Quantum Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Imanol Albarran

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available We address the quantisation of a model that induces the Little Sibling of the Big Rip (LSBR abrupt event, where the dark energy content is described by means of a phantom-like fluid or a phantom scalar field. The quantisation is done in the framework of the Wheeler–DeWitt (WDW equation and imposing the DeWitt boundary condition; i.e., the wave function vanishes close to the abrupt event. We analyse the WDW equation within two descriptions: First, when the dark energy content is described with a perfect fluid. This leaves the problem with the scale factor as the single degree of freedom. Second, when the dark energy content is described with a phantom scalar field in such a way that an additional degree of freedom is incorporated. Here, we have applied the Born–Oppenheimer (BO approximation in order to simplify the WDW equation. In all cases, the obtained wave function vanishes when the LSBR takes place, thus fulfilling the DeWitt boundary condition.

  19. Attention capture by abrupt onsets: re-visiting the priority tag model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meera Mary Sunny

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Abrupt onsets have been shown to strongly attract attention in a stimulus-driven, bottom-up manner. However, the precise mechanism that drives capture by onsets is still debated. According to the new object account, abrupt onsets capture attention because they signal the appearance of a new object. Yantis and Johnson (1990 used a visual search task and showed that up to four onsets can be automatically prioritized. However, in their study the number of onsets co-varied with the total number of items in the display, allowing for a possible confound between these two variables. In the present study, display size was fixed at eight items while the number of onsets was systematically varied between zero and eight. Experiment 1 showed a systematic increase in reactions times with increasing number of onsets. This increase was stronger when the target was an onset than when it was a no-onset item, a result that is best explained by a model according to which only one onset is automatically prioritized. Even when the onsets were marked in red (Experiment 2, nearly half of the participants continued to prioritize only one onset item. Only when onset and no-onset targets were blocked (Experiment 3, participants started to search selectively through the set of only the relevant target type. These results further support the finding that only one onset captures attention. Many bottom-up models of attention capture, like masking or saliency accounts, can efficiently explain this finding.

  20. Attention capture by abrupt onsets: re-visiting the priority tag model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sunny, Meera M; von Mühlenen, Adrian

    2013-01-01

    Abrupt onsets have been shown to strongly attract attention in a stimulus-driven, bottom-up manner. However, the precise mechanism that drives capture by onsets is still debated. According to the new object account, abrupt onsets capture attention because they signal the appearance of a new object. Yantis and Johnson (1990) used a visual search task and showed that up to four onsets can be automatically prioritized. However, in their study the number of onsets co-varied with the total number of items in the display, allowing for a possible confound between these two variables. In the present study, display size was fixed at eight items while the number of onsets was systematically varied between zero and eight. Experiment 1 showed a systematic increase in reactions times with increasing number of onsets. This increase was stronger when the target was an onset than when it was a no-onset item, a result that is best explained by a model according to which only one onset is automatically prioritized. Even when the onsets were marked in red (Experiment 2), nearly half of the participants continued to prioritize only one onset item. Only when onset and no-onset targets were blocked (Experiment 3), participants started to search selectively through the set of only the relevant target type. These results further support the finding that only one onset captures attention. Many bottom-up models of attention capture, like masking or saliency accounts, can efficiently explain this finding.

  1. Metabolism and hindgut ecosystem in forage fed sedentary and athletic horses

    OpenAIRE

    Muhonen, Sara

    2008-01-01

    The objective of this thesis was to study the effects of forage crude protein content and forage conservation method on metabolism and hindgut ecosystem, abrupt feed changes and exercise response. In total 22 horses, both sedentary and athletic, were used. The sedentary horses were fistulated in right ventral colon and the athletic horses were in Standardbred race training. In the sedentary horses bacterial counts, volatile fatty acid (VFA), pH and dry matter (DM) in colon content and faeces ...

  2. Ecosystem services in ECOCLIM

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Lise Lotte; Boegh, Eva; Bendtsen, J

    that actions initiated to reduce anthropogenic GHG emissions are sustainable and not destructive to existing ecosystem services. Therefore it is important to address i.e. land use change in relation to the regulating services of the ecosystems, such as carbon sequestration and climate regulation. At present...... a thorough understanding of the ecosystem processes controlling the uptake or emissions of GHG is fundamental. Here we present ECOCLIM in the context of ecosystem services and the experimental studies within ECOCLIM which will lead to an enhanced understanding of Danish ecosystems....

  3. Fishing for ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pope, Kevin L; Pegg, Mark A; Cole, Nicholas W; Siddons, Stephen F; Fedele, Alexis D; Harmon, Brian S; Ruskamp, Ryan L; Turner, Dylan R; Uerling, Caleb C

    2016-12-01

    Ecosystems are commonly exploited and manipulated to maximize certain human benefits. Such changes can degrade systems, leading to cascading negative effects that may be initially undetected, yet ultimately result in a reduction, or complete loss, of certain valuable ecosystem services. Ecosystem-based management is intended to maintain ecosystem quality and minimize the risk of irreversible change to natural assemblages of species and to ecosystem processes while obtaining and maintaining long-term socioeconomic benefits. We discuss policy decisions in fishery management related to commonly manipulated environments with a focus on influences to ecosystem services. By focusing on broader scales, managing for ecosystem services, and taking a more proactive approach, we expect sustainable, quality fisheries that are resilient to future disturbances. To that end, we contend that: (1) management always involves tradeoffs; (2) explicit management of fisheries for ecosystem services could facilitate a transition from reactive to proactive management; and (3) adaptive co-management is a process that could enhance management for ecosystem services. We propose adaptive co-management with an ecosystem service framework where actions are implemented within ecosystem boundaries, rather than political boundaries, through strong interjurisdictional relationships. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  4. Effects of land cover and regional climate variations on long-term spatiotemporal changes in sagebrush ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xian, George Z.; Homer, Collin G.; Aldridge, Cameron L.

    2012-01-01

    This research investigated the effects of climate and land cover change on variation in sagebrush ecosystems. We combined information of multi-year sagebrush distribution derived from multitemporal remote sensing imagery and climate data to study the variation patterns of sagebrush ecosystems under different potential disturbances. We found that less than 40% of sagebrush ecosystem changes involved abrupt changes directly caused by landscape transformations and over 60% of the variations involved gradual changes directly related to climatic perturbations. The primary increases in bare ground and declines in sagebrush vegetation abundance were significantly correlated with the 1996-2006 decreasing trend in annual precipitation.

  5. Postglacial Human resilience and susceptibility to abrupt climate change new insights from Star Carr

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blockley, Simon; Abrook, Ashley; Bayliss, Alex; Candy, Ian; Conneller, Chantal; Darvill, Chris; Deeprose, Laura; Kearney, Rebecca; Langdon, Pete; Langdon Langdon, Cath; Lincoln, Paul; Macleod, Alison; Matthews, Ian; Palmer, Adrian; Schreve, Danielle; Taylor, Barry; Milner, Nicky

    2017-04-01

    We know little about the lives of the early humans who lived during the early Postglacial period (the Lateglacial and Early Holocene), a time characterised by abrupt climate change after 16,000, which includes a series of abrupt climatic transitions linked to the reorganisation of the global environment after the glacial maximum and the last major global warming event at the onset of the Holocene. The hunter-gatherers who lived during the early Postglacial have been characterised as highly mobile, dispersed and living within small groups, and there is much debate as to how they adapted to climatic and environmental change: did they move in response to climatic transitions (and if so what was the climatic threshold), or instead adapt their lifeways to the new environmental conditions? A key area for examining these ideas is the British Isles as it sits on the Atlantic fringe of Northwest Europe with a climate that is highly responsive to the wider climate forcing experienced in the northern Hemisphere. Furthermore, in this period, Britain is directly linked to continental Europe due to lowered global sea levels allowing for the ease of human migration in and out of this region. In general the British record has been seen as being dominated by abandonment and reoccupation in the Postglacial during periods of climatic transition with hunter-gatherer mobility being closely linked to the prevailing environment. Recent discoveries at the Early Mesolithic site of Star Carr and surrounding area, linked to local and regional climate records, based on isotopic, chironomid and pollen proxy data and dated at high chronological resolution, offer a new picture. Postglacial human occupation of the area commences at the Pleistocene/Holocene transition but is short lived and appears to end close to the Pre-Boreal Oscillation, However, this is followed by a period where hunter-gatherers occupy Star Carr and settle and invest time and effort into building huts and large scale wooden

  6. A double-integration hypothesis to explain ocean ecosystem response to climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Lorenzo, Emanuele; Ohman, Mark D.

    2013-01-01

    Long-term time series of marine ecological indicators often are characterized by large-amplitude state transitions that can persist for decades. Understanding the significance of these variations depends critically on the underlying hypotheses characterizing expected natural variability. Using a linear autoregressive model in combination with long-term zooplankton observations off the California coast, we show that cumulative integrations of white-noise atmospheric forcing can generate marine population responses that are characterized by strong transitions and prolonged apparent state changes. This model provides a baseline hypothesis for explaining ecosystem variability and for interpreting the significance of abrupt responses and climate change signatures in marine ecosystems. PMID:23341628

  7. Ge-on-insulator tunneling FET with abrupt source junction formed by utilizing snowplow effect of NiGe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsumura, Ryo; Katoh, Takumi; Takaguchi, Ryotaro; Takenaka, Mitsuru; Takagi, Shinichi

    2018-04-01

    Tunneling field-effect transistors (TFETs) attract much attention for use in realizing next-generation low-power processors. In particular, Ge-on-insulator (GOI) TFETs are expected to realize low power operation with a high on-current/off-current (I on/I off) ratio, owing to their narrow bandgap. Here, to improve the performance of GOI-TFETs, a source junction with a high doping concentration and an abrupt impurity profile is essential. In this study, a snowplow effect of NiGe combined with low-energy BF2 + implantation has been investigated to realize an abrupt p+/n Ge junction for GOI n-channel TFETs. By optimizing the Ni thickness to form NiGe (thickness: 4 nm), an abrupt junction with a B profile abruptness of ˜5 nm/dec has been realized with a high doping concentration of around 1021 cm-3. The operation of GOI n-TFETs with this source junction having the abrupt B profile has been demonstrated, and the improvement of TFET properties such as the I on/I off ratio from 311 to 743 and the subthreshold slope from 368 to 239 mV/dec has been observed. This junction formation technology is attractive for enhancing the TFET performance.

  8. Abrupt climate change: Past, present and the search for precursors as an aid to predicting events in the future (Hans Oeschger Medal Lecture)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayewski, Paul Andrew

    2016-04-01

    The demonstration using Greenland ice cores that abrupt shifts in climate, Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, existed during the last glacial period has had a transformational impact on our understanding of climate change in the naturally forced world. The demonstration that D-O events are globally distributed and that they operated during previous glacial periods has led to extensive research into the relative hemispheric timing and causes of these events. The emergence of civilization during our current interglacial, the Holocene, has been attributed to the "relative climate quiescence" of this period relative to the massive, abrupt shifts in climate that characterized glacial periods in the form of D-O events. But, everything is relative and climate change is no exception. The demise of past civilizations, (eg., Mesopatamian, Mayan and Norse) is integrally tied to abrupt climate change (ACC) events operating at regional scales. Regionally to globally distributed ACC events have punctuated the Holocene and extreme events have always posed significant challenges to humans and ecosystems. Current warming of the Arctic, in terms of length of the summer season, is as abrupt and massive, albeit not as extensive, as the transition from the last major D-O event, the Younger Dryas into the Holocene (Mayewski et al., 2013). Tropospheric source greenhouse gas rise and ozone depletion in the stratosphere over Antarctica are triggers for the modern advent of human emission instigated ACCs. Arctic warming and Antarctic ozone depletion have resulted in significance changes to the atmospheric circulation systems that transport heat, moisture, and pollutants in both hemispheres. Climate models offer a critical tool for assessing trends, but they cannot as yet predict ACC events, as evidenced by the inability of these models to predict the rapid onset of Arctic warming and resulting changes in atmospheric circulation; and in the model vs past analog differences in projections for

  9. Therapeutic amnioinfusion for chronic abruption-oligohydramnios sequence: a possible prevention of the infant respiratory disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morita, Ayako; Kondoh, Eiji; Kawasaki, Kaoru; Fujita, Kohei; Mogami, Haruta; Minamiguchi, Sachiko; Konishi, Ikuo

    2014-04-01

    Chronic abruption-oligohydramnios sequence (CAOS), characterized by chronic vaginal bleeding and oligohydramnios, is associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes, including preterm delivery and lung problems in the infant. Fetal lung damage may be induced by not only oligohydramnios but also iron-induced oxidative stress through chronic aspiration of bloody substances in amniotic fluid. We describe a pregnancy complicated with CAOS that was managed with repeated amnioinfusions. This is the first report showing that amnioinfusions succeeded in a significant reduction in high concentrations of iron, lactose dehydrogenase, and 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine, a marker of oxidative DNA damage, in the amniotic fluid complicated by CAOS. The baby, born at 26 weeks' gestation via cesarean, was discharged home without supplemental oxygen 116 days after birth. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology Research © 2014 Japan Society of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

  10. Abrupt changes in neon discharge plasma detected via the optogalvanic effect

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Han, Xianming L., E-mail: xhan@butler.edu [Dept. of Physics and Astronomy, Butler University, Indianapolis, IN 46208 (United States); Blosser, Michael C. [Dept. of Physics and Astronomy, Butler University, Indianapolis, IN 46208 (United States); Misra, Prabhakar [Dept. of Physics and Astronomy, Howard University, Washington DC 20059 (United States); Chandran, Haridass [Dept. of Physical Science, Belfry School, Belfry, KY 41514 (United States)

    2012-10-30

    When a laser is tuned between two excited energy levels of a gas in a Direct Current discharge lamp, the discharge current will experience a temporary disturbance lasting tens or hundreds of microseconds known as the optogalvanic effect. We have carried out extensive studies of optogalvanic effects in neon discharge plasmas for transitions at 621.7 nm, 630.5 nm, 638.3 nm, 650.7 nm and 659.9 nm. A nonlinear least-squares Monte Carlo technique has been used to determine the relevant amplitude coefficients, decay rates and the instrumental time constant. We discovered an abrupt change in the neon discharge plasma at a discharge current of about 6 mA.

  11. Glass heat capacity and its abrupt change in glass transition region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yue, Yuanzheng; Smedskjær, Morten Mattrup; Mauro, John C.

    cover a large range of glass formers from metallic to non-metallic glasses. To conduct this study we convert the units of all the Cp data from J/mol K and J/g K to J/g-atom K. This study will provide insight into the correlations among chemical bonding, microstructure structure, liquid fragility, glass......Glass transition (GT) has been a fascinating, but challenging subject in the condensed matter science over decades. Despite progress in understanding GT, many crucial problems still need to be clarified. One of the problems deals with the microscopic origin of abrupt change of heat capacity (Cp......) around glass transition. Here we study this problem through two approaches. First, we analyze the Cp change with temperature on homologous series of glass formers (i.e., with regular compositional substitution). Second, we do the same on non-homologous systems (e.g. without regular compositional...

  12. Revisiting of Stommel's model for the understanding of the abrupt climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scatamacchia, R.; Purini, R.; Rafanelli, C.

    2010-01-01

    Despite the enormous number of papers devoted to modelling climate changes, the pionieristic Stommel paper (1961) remains a still valid tool for the understanding of the basic mechanism that governs the abrupt climate change, i.e. the existence of multipla equilibria in the governing non-linear equations. Using non-dimensional quantities, Stommel did not provide any explicit information about the temporal scale affecting the process under examination when the control parameters are varied. On the basis of this consideration, the present paper revisits the Stommel theory putting some emphasis on the quantitative estimate of how the variations of the control system parameters system modify the fundamental motor of the climate change, i.e. the thermohaline circulation.

  13. What if ... abrupt and extreme climate change? Programme of VAM (Vulnerability, Adaptation, Mitigation)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-10-01

    A number of researchers from different social scientific disciplines present a view in response to the question 'what will happen in our society if the climate suddenly changes?'. They answer questions such as: How will people respond to real risks such as imminent flooding? What are the economic consequences? How will it affect sectors such as inland shipping and coastal tourism? What are the costs of adapting our country to rising sea levels or sudden cold? As a society what do we consider to be socially and publicly acceptable? Can we still insure ourselves? Who will assume responsibility and what are the tasks of the various parties involved? The book merely sets the scene. Social sciences research into climate change has only just started. Besides providing answers to the question about the social and public implications of abrupt climate change, the book calls for a greater involvement of social scientists in climate change issues

  14. Abrupt uplift within the past 1700 years at Southern Puget Sound, Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bucknam, R.C.; Hemphill-Haley, E.; Leopold, E.B.

    1992-01-01

    Shorelines rose as much as 7 meters along southern Puget Sound and Hood Canal between 500 and 1700 years ago. Evidence for this uplift consists of elevated wave-cut shore platforms near Seattle and emerged, peat-covered tidal flats as much as 60 kilometers to the southwest. The uplift was too rapid for waves to leave intermediate shorelines on even the best preserved platform. The tidal flats also emerged abruptly; they changed into freshwater swamps and meadows without first becoming tidal marshes. Where uplift was greatest, it adjoined an inferred fault that crosses Puget Sound at Seattle and it probably accompanied reverse slip on that fault 1000 to 1100 years ago. The uplift and probable fault slip show that the crust of the North America plate contains potential sources of damaging earthquakes in the Puget Sound region.

  15. Prediction of abrupt reservoir compaction and surface subsidence due to pore collapse in carbonates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smits, R.M.M.; de Waal, A.; van Kooten, J.F.C.

    1986-01-01

    A new procedure has been developed to predict the abrupt in-situ compaction and the associated surface subsidence above high-porosity carbonate fields showing pore collapse. The approach is based on an extensive laboratory compaction study in which the effects of carbonate type, porosity, core preparation, pore saturant, horizontal to vertical stress ratio and loading rate on the pore collapse behaviour were investigated. For each carbonate type a trendline was established describing the relationship between the porosity after collapse and the vertical effective stress. This trendline concept, in combination with existing subsidence models, enables reservoir compaction and surface subsidence to be predicted on the basis of wireline porosity logs. Static and dynamic elastic constants were found to be uncorrelated during pore collapse. The position of the trendline depends strongly on carbonate type, pore saturant, loading rate and stress ratio. Therefore procedures are given to derive the correct in-situ trendline from laboratory compaction experiments.

  16. Prediction of abrupt reservoir compaction and surface subsidence caused by pore collapse in carbonates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smits, R.M.M.; De Waal, J.A.; Van Kootan, J.F.C.

    1988-06-01

    A new procedure has been developed to predict the abrupt in-situ compaction and the associated surface subsidence above high-porosity carbonate fields that show pore collapse. The approach is based on an extensive laboratory compaction study in which the effects of carbonate type, porosity, core preparation, pore saturant, horizontal/vertical stress ratio, and loading rate on pore-collapse behavior were investigated. For a number of carbonate types, a trendline was established that describes the relationship between the porosity after collapse and the vertical effective stress. This trendline concept, in combination with existing subsidence models, enables reservoir compaction and surface subsidence to be predicted on the basis of wireline porosity logs. Static and dynamic elastic constants were found to be uncorrelated during pore collapse. The position of the trendline depends strongly on carbonate type, pore saturant, loading rate, and stress ratio. Therefore, procedures are given to derive the correct in-situ trendline from laboratory compaction experiments.

  17. North Atlantic ocean circulation and abrupt climate change during the last glaciation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henry, L G; McManus, J F; Curry, W B; Roberts, N L; Piotrowski, A M; Keigwin, L D

    2016-07-29

    The most recent ice age was characterized by rapid and hemispherically asynchronous climate oscillations, whose origin remains unresolved. Variations in oceanic meridional heat transport may contribute to these repeated climate changes, which were most pronounced during marine isotope stage 3, the glacial interval 25 thousand to 60 thousand years ago. We examined climate and ocean circulation proxies throughout this interval at high resolution in a deep North Atlantic sediment core, combining the kinematic tracer protactinium/thorium (Pa/Th) with the deep water-mass tracer, epibenthic δ(13)C. These indicators suggest reduced Atlantic overturning circulation during every cool northern stadial, with the greatest reductions during episodic Hudson Strait iceberg discharges, while sharp northern warming followed reinvigorated overturning. These results provide direct evidence for the ocean's persistent, central role in abrupt glacial climate change. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  18. Ecosystem-based management and the wealth of ecosystems

    OpenAIRE

    Yun, Seong Do; Hutniczak, Barbara; Abbott, Joshua K.; Fenichel, Eli P.

    2017-01-01

    Ecosystems store vast quantities of wealth, but difficulties measuring wealth held in ecosystems prevent its inclusion in accounting systems. Ecosystem-based management endeavors to manage ecosystems holistically. However, ecosystem-based management lacks headline indicators to evaluate performance. We unify the inclusive wealth and ecosystem-based management paradigms, allowing apples-to-apples comparisons between the wealth of the ecosystem and other forms of wealth, while providing a headl...

  19. Cooperation of the BTB-Zinc finger protein, Abrupt, with cytoskeletal regulators in Drosophila epithelial tumorigenesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nezaket Turkel

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The deregulation of cell polarity or cytoskeletal regulators is a common occurrence in human epithelial cancers. Moreover, there is accumulating evidence in human epithelial cancer that BTB-ZF genes, such as Bcl6 and ZBTB7A, are oncogenic. From our previous studies in the vinegar fly, Drosophila melanogaster, we have identified a cooperative interaction between a mutation in the apico-basal cell polarity regulator Scribble (Scrib and overexpression of the BTB-ZF protein Abrupt (Ab. Herein, we show that co-expression of ab with actin cytoskeletal regulators, RhoGEF2 or Src64B, in the developing eye-antennal epithelial tissue results in the formation of overgrown amorphous tumours, whereas ab and DRac1 co-expression leads to non-cell autonomous overgrowth. Together with ab, these genes affect the expression of differentiation genes, resulting in tumours locked in a progenitor cell fate. Finally, we show that the expression of two mammalian genes related to ab, Bcl6 and ZBTB7A, which are oncogenes in mammalian epithelial cancers, significantly correlate with the upregulation of cytoskeletal genes or downregulation of apico-basal cell polarity neoplastic tumour suppressor genes in colorectal, lung and other human epithelial cancers. Altogether, this analysis has revealed that upregulation of cytoskeletal regulators cooperate with Abrupt in Drosophila epithelial tumorigenesis, and that high expression of human BTB-ZF genes, Bcl6 and ZBTB7A, shows significant correlations with cytoskeletal and cell polarity gene expression in specific epithelial tumour types. This highlights the need for further investigation of the cooperation between these genes in mammalian systems.

  20. Use of calcareous algae and monensin in Nellore cattle subjected to an abrupt change in diet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberta Ferreira Carvalho

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT: Additives are used in high concentrate diets to prevent metabolic disorders in cattle. This study was designed to evaluate the effect of calcium sources and monensin on the control of ruminal acidosis in Nellore cattle that were abruptly shifted to a high (92.3% concentrate diet. Eight cannulated steers were randomly assigned to two contemporary 4x4 Latin square. Treatments involved the addition of a calcium source, either limestone (LI or a product derived from calcareous algae (CA, to the basic diet with or without the presence of monensin. Calcareous alga (Lithothamnium calcareum is a natural and renewable product and a source of calcium carbonate. The quantity of added limestone, calcareous algae and monensin was 7.1g kg-1, 7.4g kg-1 and 30mg kg-1 DM, respectively. There was no effect of calcium source (P=0.607 or monensin (P=0.294 on feed intake or on the concentration of short chain fatty acids. Treatments with calcareous algae resulted in a higher mean ruminal pH (P=0.039, a shorter amount of time with the ruminal pH under 5.2 (P<0.001 and a better control of blood pH (P=0.006. Treatments with monensin also resulted in a shorter amount of time with the ruminal pH below 5.2 (P=0.023. Calcareous algae were shown to be effective in controlling adverse changes in the rumen and in blood variables for Nellore cattle that were subjected to an abrupt change to a high concentrate diet.

  1. Haemophilus influenzae Sepsis and Placental Abruption in an Unvaccinated Immigrant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul A. Calner

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: Haemophilus influenzae infections have declined dramatically in the United States sinceimplementation of the conjugate vaccine. However, in countries where widespread immunization is notroutine, H influenzae remains a significant cause of morbidity and mortality. We report a case of apreviously unvaccinated immigrant with confirmed H influenzae sepsis and placental abruption leadingto spontaneous abortion.Objectives: To alert emergency medicine practitioners that H influenzae should be recognized as amaternal, fetal, and neonatal pathogen. Clinicians should consider this diagnosis in immigrants presentingwith uncertain vaccination history, as H influenzae can cause significant morbidity and mortality.Case Presentation: A 36-year-old female was referred to our emergency department (ED with lowerabdominal pain with some vaginal spotting. The patient had an initial visit with normal laboratoryinvestigations and normal imaging results, with complete resolution of symptoms. The patient returned tothe ED with sudden onset of vaginal bleeding and abdominal pain. She presented at this time with sepsis,which progressed to septic shock, causing placental abruption and ultimately, spontaneous abortion. Thepatient was treated with pressors and antibiotics and was admitted to the medical intensive care unitwhere she received ampicillin, gentamycin, and clindamycin for suspected chorioamnionitis. The patient’sblood cultures came back positive after 1 day for H influenzae. The patient did well and was dischargedfrom the hospital 4 days later.Conclusion: Haemophilus influenzae should be recognized as a neonatal and maternal pathogen.Clinicians should consider this diagnosis in immigrants presenting with uncertain vaccination history,especially in pregnant females, as H influenzae can cause significant morbidity and mortality. [West JEmerg Med. 2012;13(1:133–135.

  2. Abrupt opium discontinuation has no significant triggering effect on acute myocardial infarction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masoomi, Mohammad; Zare, Jahangir; Nasri, Hamidreza; Mirzazadeh, Ali; Sheikhvatan, Mehrdad

    2011-04-01

    A deleterious effect of withdrawal symptoms due to abrupt discontinuation of opium on the cardiovascular system is one of the recent interesting topics in the cardiovascular field. The current study hypothesized that the withdrawal syndrome due to discontinuing opium might be an important trigger for the appearance of acute myocardial infarction. Eighty-one opium-addicted individuals who were candidates for cardiovascular clinical evaluation and consecutively hospitalized in the coronary care unit (CCU) ward of Shafa Hospital in Kerman between January and July 2009 were included in the study and categorized in the case group, including patients experiencing withdrawal symptoms within 6-12 h after the reduced or discontinued use of opium according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders-revised IV version (DSM-IV-R) criteria for opium dependence and withdrawal, and the control group, without opium withdrawal symptoms. The appearance of acute myocardial infarction was compared between the two groups using multivariable regression models. Acute myocardial infarction occurred in 50.0% of those with withdrawal symptoms and in 45.1% of patients without evidence of opium withdrawal (P = 0.669). Multivariable analysis showed that opium withdrawal symptoms were not a trigger for acute myocardial infarction adjusting for demographic characteristics, marital status, education level and common coronary artery disease risk profiles [odds ratio (OR) = 0.920, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.350-2.419, P = 0.866]. Also, daily dose of opium before reducing or discontinuing use did not predict the appearance of myocardial infarction in the presence of confounder variables (OR = 0.975, 95% CI = 0.832-1.143, P = 0.755). Withdrawal syndrome due to abrupt discontinuation of opium does not have a triggering role for appearance of acute myocardial infarction.

  3. Abrupt pre-Bølling-Allerød warming and circulation changes in the deep ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiagarajan, Nivedita; Subhas, Adam V; Southon, John R; Eiler, John M; Adkins, Jess F

    2014-07-03

    Several large and rapid changes in atmospheric temperature and the partial pressure of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere--probably linked to changes in deep ocean circulation--occurred during the last deglaciation. The abrupt temperature rise in the Northern Hemisphere and the restart of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at the start of the Bølling-Allerød interstadial, 14,700 years ago, are among the most dramatic deglacial events, but their underlying physical causes are not known. Here we show that the release of heat from warm waters in the deep North Atlantic Ocean probably triggered the Bølling-Allerød warming and reinvigoration of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Our results are based on coupled radiocarbon and uranium-series dates, along with clumped isotope temperature estimates, from water column profiles of fossil deep-sea corals in a limited area of the western North Atlantic. We find that during Heinrich stadial 1 (the cool period immediately before the Bølling-Allerød interstadial), the deep ocean was about three degrees Celsius warmer than shallower waters above. This reversal of the ocean's usual thermal stratification pre-dates the Bølling-Allerød warming and must have been associated with increased salinity at depth to preserve the static stability of the water column. The depleted radiocarbon content of the warm and salty water mass implies a long-term disconnect from rapid surface exchanges, and, although uncertainties remain, is most consistent with a Southern Ocean source. The Heinrich stadial 1 ocean profile is distinct from the modern water column, that for the Last Glacial Maximum and that for the Younger Dryas, suggesting that the patterns we observe are a unique feature of the deglacial climate system. Our observations indicate that the deep ocean influenced dramatic Northern Hemisphere warming by storing heat at depth that preconditioned the system for a subsequent abrupt overturning event during the

  4. Direct generation of abruptly focusing vortex beams using a 3/2 radial phase-only pattern.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Jeffrey A; Cottrell, Don M; Zinn, Jonathan M

    2013-03-20

    Abruptly focusing Airy beams have previously been generated using a radial cubic phase pattern that represents the Fourier transform of the Airy beam. The Fourier transform of this pattern is formed using a system length of 2f, where f is the focal length of the Fourier transform lens. In this work, we directly generate these abruptly focusing Airy beams using a 3/2 radial phase pattern encoded onto a liquid crystal display. The resulting optical system is much shorter. In addition, we can easily produce vortex patterns at the focal point of these beams. Experimental results match theoretical predictions.

  5. BUSINESS ECOSYSTEMS VS BUSINESS DIGITAL ECOSYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marinela Lazarica

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available E-business is often described as the small organisations’ gateway to global business and markets. The adoption of Internet-based technologies for e-business is a continuous process, with sequential steps of evolution. The latter step in the adoption of Internet-based technologies for business, where the business services and the software components are supported by a pervasive software environment, which shows an evolutionary and self-organising behaviour are named digital business ecosystems. The digital business ecosystems are characterized by intelligent software components and services, knowledge transfer, interactive training frameworks and integration of business processes and e-government models.

  6. A global examination of the response of ecosystem water-use efficiency to drought based on MODIS data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Ling; He, Bin; Han, Le; Liu, Junjie; Wang, Haiyan; Chen, Ziyue

    2017-12-01

    Ecosystem water-use efficiency (WUE) plays an important role in carbon and water cycles. Currently, the response of WUE to drought disturbance remains controversial. Based on the global ecosystem gross primary productivity (GPP) product and the evapotranspiration product (ET), both of which were retrieved from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS), as well as the drought index, this study comprehensively examined the relationship between ecosystem WUE (WUE=GPP/ET) and drought at the global scale. The response of WUE to drought showed large differences in various regions and biomes. WUE for arid ecosystems typically showed a negative response to drought, whereas WUE for humid ecosystems showed both positive and negative response to drought. Legacy effects of drought on ecosystem WUE were observed. Furthermore, ecosystems showed a sensitive response to abrupt changes in hydrological climatic conditions. The transition from wet to dry years should increase ecosystem WUE, and the opposite change in WUE should occur when an ecosystem experiences a transition from dry to wet years. This indicates the resilience of ecosystems to drought disturbance. Knowledge from this study should provide an in-depth understanding of ecosystem strategies for coping with drought. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Belowground ecosystems [chapter 9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carole Coe Klopatek

    1995-01-01

    The USDA Forest Service defined ecosystem management as "an ecological approach to achieve multiple-use management of national forests and grasslands by blending the needs of people and environmental values in such a way that national forests and grasslands represent diverse, healthy, productive, and sustainable ecosystems" (June 4, 1992, letter from Chief FS...

  8. Payments for Ecosystem Services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chan, Kai M.A; Anderson, Emily K.; Chapman, Mollie

    2017-01-01

    Payments for ecosystem services (PES) programs are one prominent strategy to address economic externalities of resource extraction and commodity production, improving both social and ecological outcomes. But do PES and related incentive programs achieve that lofty goal? Along with considerable en...... sustainable relationships with nature, conserving and restoring ecosystems and their benefits for people now and in the future....

  9. Ecosystem Management and Sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.D. Peine; B.L. Jacobs; K.E. Franzreb; M.R. Stevens

    2011-01-01

    Ecosystem management (EM) promotes an integrated approach to environmental issues; its central goal is the protection of entire ecosystems. By focusing on an interdisciplinary solution to environmental challenges, EM can help to synthesize societal, economic scientific, and governmental goals. Furthermore, as EM becomes part of the foundation of environmental...

  10. Radionuclides in terrestrial ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bocock, K.L.

    1981-01-01

    This report summarizes information on the distribution and movement of radionuclides in semi-natural terrestrial ecosystems in north-west England with particular emphasis on inputs to, and outputs from ecosystems; on plant and soil aspects; and on radionuclides in fallout and in discharges by the nuclear industry. (author)

  11. Coastal ecosystems, productivity and ecosystem protection: Coastal ecosystem management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ngoile, M.A.K.; Horrill, C.J.

    1993-01-01

    The coastal zone is a complex ecosystem under the influence of physical, chemical and biological processes. Under natural conditions these processes interact and maintain an equilibrium in the coastal ecosystem. Man makes a variety of important uses of coastal resources, ranging from harvesting of living resources, extraction of nonliving resources, and recreation, to the disposal of wastes. Man's extensive use of the oceans introduces factors which bring about an imbalance in the natural processes, and may result in harmful and hazardous effects to life hindering further use. Man's pressure on the resources of the coastal zone is already manifest and will increase manifold. This calls for an immediate solution to the protection and sustainable use of coastal resources. The current sectorized approach to the management of human activities will not solve the problem because the different resources of the coastal zone interact in such a manner that disturbances in one cause imbalance in the others. This is further complicated by the sectorized approach to research and limited communication between policy makers, managers, and scientists. This paper discusses strategies for managing coastal-resources use through an integrated approach. The coastal zone is presented as a unified ecosystem in equilibrium and shows that man's extensive use of the coastal resources destabilizes this equilibrium. Examples from the East Africa Region are presented. 15 refs, 2 figs, 3 tabs

  12. Mapping cultural ecosystem services:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paracchini, Maria Luisa; Zulian, Grazia; Kopperoinen, Leena

    2014-01-01

    Research on ecosystem services mapping and valuing has increased significantly in recent years. However, compared to provisioning and regulating services, cultural ecosystem services have not yet been fully integrated into operational frameworks. One reason for this is that transdisciplinarity...... surveys are a main source of information. Among cultural ecosystem services, assessment of outdoor recreation can be based on a large pool of literature developed mostly in social and medical science, and landscape and ecology studies. This paper presents a methodology to include recreation...... in the conceptual framework for EU wide ecosystem assessments (Maes et al., 2013), which couples existing approaches for recreation management at country level with behavioural data derived from surveys, and population distribution data. The proposed framework is based on three components: the ecosystem function...

  13. Response of the auroral electrojet indices to abrupt southward IMF turnings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gjerloev, J. W.; Hoffman, R. A.; Ohtani, S.; Weygand, J.; Barnes, R.

    2010-05-01

    We present results from a study of the behavior of the auroral electrojet indices following abrupt southward turnings of the IMF Bz. The auroral electrojet indices are calculated from observations made by more than 100 ground based stations provided by the SuperMAG collaborators. Based on three simple criteria we selected 73 events. In each event the interval of analysis started at the time of the IMF Bz southward turning and ended 45 minutes later or at the onset of any abrupt energy unloading event in the magnetosphere, regardless of size. We refer to this period as the "pre-unloading phase". To isolate the dependence of the auroral electrojets on the solar induced ionospheric conductivity during this phase we separated the standard AU/AL indices into two new sets of indices defined by the upper and lower envelope of the north-south component for all sunlit stations (AUs/ALs) and for all stations in darkness (AUd/ALd). Based on events and statistical analyses we can conclude that following a southward turning of the IMF Bz the AUd/ALd indices show no measurable response while the AUs/ALs indices clearly intensify. The intensifications of AUs/ALs are dependent on the intensity of the solar wind driver (as measured by IMF Bz or the Akasofu ɛ parameter). The lack of AUd/ALd response does not depend on the intensity of any subsequent substorm. We find that during these isolated events the ionospheric current system is primarily confined to the sunlit ionosphere. This truncated version of the classical global DP-2 current system suggests that auroral electrojet continuity is not maintained across the terminator. Because of its conductivity dependence on the solar zenith angle, this truncated global current pattern is expected to be highly dependent on UT and season and thus can be asymmetric between hemispheres. Thus we argue that the global two-cell DP-2 current system is not a consequence only of a southward turning of the IMF but requires also the reduction of the

  14. Forced-rupture of cell-adhesion complexes reveals abrupt switch between two brittle states

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toan, Ngo Minh; Thirumalai, D.

    2018-03-01

    Cell adhesion complexes (CACs), which are activated by ligand binding, play key roles in many cellular functions ranging from cell cycle regulation to mediation of cell extracellular matrix adhesion. Inspired by single molecule pulling experiments using atomic force spectroscopy on leukocyte function-associated antigen-1 (LFA-1), expressed in T-cells, bound to intercellular adhesion molecules (ICAM), we performed constant loading rate (rf) and constant force (F) simulations using the self-organized polymer model to describe the mechanism of ligand rupture from CACs. The simulations reproduce the major experimental finding on the kinetics of the rupture process, namely, the dependence of the most probable rupture forces (f*s) on ln rf (rf is the loading rate) exhibits two distinct linear regimes. The first, at low rf, has a shallow slope, whereas the slope at high rf is much larger, especially for a LFA-1/ICAM-1 complex with the transition between the two occurring over a narrow rf range. Locations of the two transition states (TSs) extracted from the simulations show an abrupt change from a high value at low rf or constant force, F, to a low value at high rf or F. This unusual behavior in which the CACs switch from one brittle (TS position is a constant over a range of forces) state to another brittle state is not found in forced-rupture in other protein complexes. We explain this novel behavior by constructing the free energy profiles, F(Λ)s, as a function of a collective reaction coordinate (Λ), involving many key charged residues and a critical metal ion (Mg2+). The TS positions in F(Λ), which quantitatively agree with the parameters extracted using the Bell-Evans model, change abruptly at a critical force, demonstrating that it, rather than the molecular extension, is a good reaction coordinate. Our combined analyses using simulations performed in both the pulling modes (constant rf and F) reveal a new mechanism for the two loading regimes observed in the

  15. Elevation alters ecosystem properties across temperate treelines globally

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayor, Jordan R.; Sanders, Nathan J.; Classen, Aimée T.; Bardgett, Richard D.; Clément, Jean-Christophe; Fajardo, Alex; Lavorel, Sandra; Sundqvist, Maja K.; Bahn, Michael; Chisholm, Chelsea; Cieraad, Ellen; Gedalof, Ze'Ev; Grigulis, Karl; Kudo, Gaku; Oberski, Daniel L.; Wardle, David A.

    2017-01-01

    Temperature is a primary driver of the distribution of biodiversity as well as of ecosystem boundaries. Declining temperature with increasing elevation in montane systems has long been recognized as a major factor shaping plant community biodiversity, metabolic processes, and ecosystem dynamics. Elevational gradients, as thermoclines, also enable prediction of long-term ecological responses to climate warming. One of the most striking manifestations of increasing elevation is the abrupt transitions from forest to treeless alpine tundra. However, whether there are globally consistent above- and belowground responses to these transitions remains an open question. To disentangle the direct and indirect effects of temperature on ecosystem properties, here we evaluate replicate treeline ecotones in seven temperate regions of the world. We find that declining temperatures with increasing elevation did not affect tree leaf nutrient concentrations, but did reduce ground-layer community-weighted plant nitrogen, leading to the strong stoichiometric convergence of ground-layer plant community nitrogen to phosphorus ratios across all regions. Further, elevation-driven changes in plant nutrients were associated with changes in soil organic matter content and quality (carbon to nitrogen ratios) and microbial properties. Combined, our identification of direct and indirect temperature controls over plant communities and soil properties in seven contrasting regions suggests that future warming may disrupt the functional properties of montane ecosystems, particularly where plant community reorganization outpaces treeline advance.

  16. Changes in extreme regional sea surface height due to an abrupt weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brunnabend, S.-E.; Dijkstra, H. A.; Kliphuis, M. A.; van Werkhoven, B.J.C.; Bal, H. E.; Seinstra, F.; Maassen, J.; van Meersbergen, M.

    2014-01-01

    As an extreme scenario of dynamical sea level changes, regional sea surface height (SSH) changes that occur in the North Atlantic due to an abrupt weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are simulated. Two versions of the same ocean-only model are used to study the effect

  17. Exogenous Attentional Capture by Subliminal Abrupt-Onset Cues: Evidence from Contrast-Polarity Independent Cueing Effects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fuchs, I.; Theeuwes, J.; Ansorge, U.

    2013-01-01

    In the present study, we tested whether subliminal abrupt-onset cues capture attention in a bottom-up or top-down controlled manner. For our tests, we varied the searched-for target-contrast polarity (i.e., dark or light targets against a gray background) over four experiments. In line with the

  18. A Static Color Discontinuity Can Capture Spatial Attention when the Target Is an Abrupt-Onset Singleton

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burnham, Bryan R.; Neely, James H.

    2008-01-01

    C. L. Folk, R. W. Remington, and J. C. Johnston's (1992) contingent involuntary orienting hypothesis states that a salient visual feature will involuntarily capture attention only when the observer's attentional set includes similar features. In four experiments, when the target's relevant feature was its being an abruptly onset singleton,…

  19. The problem of latent attentional capture: Easy visual search conceals capture by task-irrelevant abrupt onsets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaspelin, Nicholas; Ruthruff, Eric; Lien, Mei-Ching

    2016-08-01

    Researchers are sharply divided regarding whether irrelevant abrupt onsets capture spatial attention. Numerous studies report that they do and a roughly equal number report that they do not. This puzzle has inspired numerous attempts at reconciliation, none gaining general acceptance. The authors propose that abrupt onsets routinely capture attention, but the size of observed capture effects depends critically on how long attention dwells on distractor items which, in turn, depends critically on search difficulty. In a series of spatial cuing experiments, the authors show that irrelevant abrupt onsets produce robust capture effects when visual search is difficult, but not when search is easy. Critically, this effect occurs even when search difficulty varies randomly across trials, preventing any strategic adjustments of the attentional set that could modulate probability of capture by the onset cue. The authors argue that easy visual search provides an insensitive test for stimulus-driven capture by abrupt onsets: even though onsets truly capture attention, the effects of capture can be latent. This observation helps to explain previous failures to find capture by onsets, nearly all of which used an easy visual search. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  20. Ecosystem approach in education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nabiullin, Iskander

    2017-04-01

    Environmental education is a base for sustainable development. Therefore, in our school we pay great attention to environmental education. Environmental education in our school is based on ecosystem approach. What is an ecosystem approach? Ecosystem is a fundamental concept of ecology. Living organisms and their non-living environments interact with each other as a system, and the biosphere planet functions as a global ecosystem. Therefore, it is necessary for children to understand relationships in ecosystems, and we have to develop systems thinking in our students. Ecosystem approach and systems thinking should help us to solve global environmental problems. How do we implement the ecosystem approach? Students must understand that our biosphere functions as a single ecosystem and even small changes can lead to environmental disasters. Even the disappearance of one plant or animal species can lead to irreversible consequences. So in the classroom we learn the importance of each living organism for the nature. We pay special attention to endangered species, which are listed in the Red Data List. Kids are doing projects about these organisms, make videos, print brochures and newspapers. Fieldwork also plays an important role for ecosystem approach. Every summer, we go out for expeditions to study species of plants and animals listed in the Red Data List of Tatarstan. In class, students often write essays on behalf of any endangered species of plants or animals, this also helps them to understand the importance of each living organism in nature. Each spring we organise a festival of environmental projects among students. Groups of 4-5 students work on a solution of environmental problems, such as water, air or soil pollution, waste recycling, the loss of biodiversity, etc. Participants shoot a clip about their project, print brochures. Furthermore, some of the students participate in national and international scientific Olympiads with their projects. In addition to

  1. Early Holocene hydroclimate of Baffin Bay: Understanding the interplay between abrupt climate change events and ice sheet fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corcoran, M. C.; Thomas, E. K.; Castañeda, I. S.; Briner, J. P.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding the causes of ice sheet fluctuations resulting in sea level rise is essential in today's warming climate. In high-latitude ice-sheet-proximal environments such as Baffin Bay, studying both the cause and the rate of ice sheet variability during past abrupt climate change events aids in predictions. Past climate reconstructions are used to understand ice sheet responses to changes in temperature and precipitation. The 9,300 and 8,200 yr BP events are examples of abrupt climate change events in the Baffin Bay region during which there were multiple re-advances of the Greenland and Laurentide ice sheets. High-resolution (decadal-scale) hydroclimate variability near the ice sheet margins during these abrupt climate change events is still unknown. We will generate a decadal-scale record of early Holocene temperature and precipitation using leaf wax hydrogen isotopes, δ2Hwax, from a lake sediment archive on Baffin Island, western Baffin Bay, to better understand abrupt climate change in this region. Shifts in temperature and moisture source result in changes in environmental water δ2H, which in turn is reflected in δ2Hwax, allowing for past hydroclimate to be determined from these compound-specific isotopes. The combination of terrestrial and aquatic δ2Hwax is used to determine soil evaporation and is ultimately used to reconstruct moisture variability. We will compare our results with a previous analysis of δ2Hwax and branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers, a temperature and pH proxy, in lake sediment from western Greenland, eastern Baffin Bay, which indicates that cool and dry climate occurred in response to freshwater forcing events in the Labrador Sea. Reconstructing and comparing records on both the western and eastern sides of Baffin Bay during the early Holocene will allow for a spatial understanding of temperature and moisture balance changes during abrupt climate events, aiding in ice sheet modeling and predictions of future sea level

  2. Abrupt deceleration of molecular evolution linked to the origin of arborescence in ferns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korall, Petra; Schuettpelz, Eric; Pryer, Kathleen M

    2010-09-01

    Molecular rate heterogeneity, whereby rates of molecular evolution vary among groups of organisms, is a well-documented phenomenon. Nonetheless, its causes are poorly understood. For animals, generation time is frequently cited because longer-lived species tend to have slower rates of molecular evolution than their shorter-lived counterparts. Although a similar pattern has been uncovered in flowering plants, using proxies such as growth form, the underlying process has remained elusive. Here, we find a deceleration of molecular evolutionary rate to be coupled with the origin of arborescence in ferns. Phylogenetic branch lengths within the “tree fern” clade are considerably shorter than those of closely related lineages, and our analyses demonstrate that this is due to a significant difference in molecular evolutionary rate. Reconstructions reveal that an abrupt rate deceleration coincided with the evolution of the long-lived tree-like habit at the base of the tree fern clade. This suggests that a generation time effect may well be ubiquitous across the green tree of life, and that the search for a responsible mechanism must focus on characteristics shared by all vascular plants. Discriminating among the possibilities will require contributions from various biological disciplines,but will be necessary for a full appreciation of molecular evolution.

  3. 1600 AD Huaynaputina Eruption (Peru, Abrupt Cooling, and Epidemics in China and Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Fei

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The 1600 AD Huaynaputina eruption in Peru was one of the largest volcanic eruptions in history over the past 2000 years. This study operated on the hypothesis that this event dramatically affected the weather and environment in China and the Korean Peninsula. Over the course of this research the Chinese and Korean historical literatures as well as dendrochronology records were examined. The historical evidence points to the conclusion that the eruption was followed by an abrupt cooling period and epidemic outbreaks in 1601 AD within both China and the Korean Peninsula. These records manifested themselves in unseasonably cold weather resulting in severe killing frosts in northern China in the summer and autumn of 1601 AD. In southern China (Zhejiang and Anhui Provinces and Shanghai Municipality, July was abnormally cold with snow, with an autumn that saw anomalously hot weather. In addition, there was unseasonable snowfall that autumn within Yunnan Province. Widespread disease outbreaks occurred in August, September, and October in northern and southern China. In Korea, the spring and early summer of 1601 AD were unusually cold, and conditions led to further widespread epidemics occurring in August.

  4. Connecting the records: exploiting tephra deposits to help understand abrupt climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, S. M.; Abbott, P. M.; Bourne, A. J.; Chapman, M.; Pearce, N. J. G.; Griggs, A. J.; Cook, E.

    2016-12-01

    The causal mechanism of abrupt climate change during the last glacial period remains a key challenge. Although these events are well-documented in a wide range of proxy records, the triggers and drivers remain poorly understood, largely due to the dating uncertainties that prevent the integration of different archives. Unravelling the lead/lag responses (hence cause and effect) between the Earth's climate components is limited by the challenges of synchronising palaeoclimate records on a common timescale. Here we present the potential and the challenges of optimising the use of cryptotephra deposits to precisely correlate the Greenland ice-cores with North Atlantic marine records. A series of new cryptotephra deposits have been identified in Greenland, increasing the scope of identifying coeval isochrons in the marine environment. This new framework, however, brings new challenges in the search for unique and robust geochemical fingerprints for unequivocal tephra correlations. As such, some tephra deposits are proposed to be more valuable than others and underpin key snapshots in time during the last glacial period. The North Atlantic Ash Zone II, for instance, represents the most widespread isochron and constrains the cooling of GI-15. Some tephra deposits in the ice-core record originate from ultra-distal sources beyond the North Atlantic region and we also explore the potential for establishing North Pacific linkages.

  5. SPH numerical investigation of the characteristics of an oscillating hydraulic jump at an abrupt drop

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Padova, Diana; Mossa, Michele; Sibilla, Stefano

    2018-02-01

    This paper shows the results of the smooth particle hydrodynamics (SPH) modelling of the hydraulic jump at an abrupt drop, where the transition from supercritical to subcritical flow is characterised by several flow patterns depending upon the inflow and tailwater conditions. SPH simulations are obtained by a pseudo-compressible XSPH scheme with pressure smoothing; turbulent stresses are represented either by an algebraic mixing-length model, or by a two-equation k- ɛ model. The numerical model is applied to analyse the occurrence of oscillatory flow conditions between two different jump types characterised by quasi-periodic oscillation, and the results are compared with experiments performed at the hydraulics laboratory of Bari Technical University. The purpose of this paper is to obtain a deeper understanding of the physical features of a flow which is in general difficult to be reproduced numerically, owing to its unstable character: in particular, vorticity and turbulent kinetic energy fields, velocity, water depth and pressure spectra downstream of the jump, and velocity and pressure cross-correlations can be computed and analysed.

  6. Gain control through divisive inhibition prevents abrupt transition to chaos in a neural mass model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papasavvas, Christoforos A.; Wang, Yujiang; Trevelyan, Andrew J.; Kaiser, Marcus

    2016-01-01

    Experimental results suggest that there are two distinct mechanisms of inhibition in cortical neuronal networks: subtractive and divisive inhibition. They modulate the input-output function of their target neurons either by increasing the input that is needed to reach maximum output or by reducing the gain and the value of maximum output itself, respectively. However, the role of these mechanisms on the dynamics of the network is poorly understood. We introduce a novel population model and numerically investigate the influence of divisive inhibition on network dynamics. Specifically, we focus on the transitions from a state of regular oscillations to a state of chaotic dynamics via period-doubling bifurcations. The model with divisive inhibition exhibits a universal transition rate to chaos (Feigenbaum behavior). In contrast, in an equivalent model without divisive inhibition, transition rates to chaos are not bounded by the universal constant (non-Feigenbaum behavior). This non-Feigenbaum behavior, when only subtractive inhibition is present, is linked to the interaction of bifurcation curves in the parameter space. Indeed, searching the parameter space showed that such interactions are impossible when divisive inhibition is included. Therefore, divisive inhibition prevents non-Feigenbaum behavior and, consequently, any abrupt transition to chaos. The results suggest that the divisive inhibition in neuronal networks could play a crucial role in keeping the states of order and chaos well separated and in preventing the onset of pathological neural dynamics. PMID:26465514

  7. Gain control through divisive inhibition prevents abrupt transition to chaos in a neural mass model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papasavvas, Christoforos A; Wang, Yujiang; Trevelyan, Andrew J; Kaiser, Marcus

    2015-09-01

    Experimental results suggest that there are two distinct mechanisms of inhibition in cortical neuronal networks: subtractive and divisive inhibition. They modulate the input-output function of their target neurons either by increasing the input that is needed to reach maximum output or by reducing the gain and the value of maximum output itself, respectively. However, the role of these mechanisms on the dynamics of the network is poorly understood. We introduce a novel population model and numerically investigate the influence of divisive inhibition on network dynamics. Specifically, we focus on the transitions from a state of regular oscillations to a state of chaotic dynamics via period-doubling bifurcations. The model with divisive inhibition exhibits a universal transition rate to chaos (Feigenbaum behavior). In contrast, in an equivalent model without divisive inhibition, transition rates to chaos are not bounded by the universal constant (non-Feigenbaum behavior). This non-Feigenbaum behavior, when only subtractive inhibition is present, is linked to the interaction of bifurcation curves in the parameter space. Indeed, searching the parameter space showed that such interactions are impossible when divisive inhibition is included. Therefore, divisive inhibition prevents non-Feigenbaum behavior and, consequently, any abrupt transition to chaos. The results suggest that the divisive inhibition in neuronal networks could play a crucial role in keeping the states of order and chaos well separated and in preventing the onset of pathological neural dynamics.

  8. Abrupt fire regime change may cause landscape-wide loss of mature obligate seeder forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowman, David M J S; Murphy, Brett P; Neyland, Dominic L J; Williamson, Grant J; Prior, Lynda D

    2014-03-01

    Obligate seeder trees requiring high-severity fires to regenerate may be vulnerable to population collapse if fire frequency increases abruptly. We tested this proposition using a long-lived obligate seeding forest tree, alpine ash (Eucalyptus delegatensis), in the Australian Alps. Since 2002, 85% of the Alps bioregion has been burnt by several very large fires, tracking the regional trend of more frequent extreme fire weather. High-severity fires removed 25% of aboveground tree biomass, and switched fuel arrays from low loads of herbaceous and litter fuels to high loads of flammable shrubs and juvenile trees, priming regenerating stands for subsequent fires. Single high-severity fires caused adult mortality and triggered mass regeneration, but a second fire in quick succession killed 97% of the regenerating alpine ash. Our results indicate that without interventions to reduce fire severity, interactions between flammability of regenerating stands and increased extreme fire weather will eliminate much of the remaining mature alpine ash forest. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Nonlinear analysis of fetal heart rate dynamics in fetuses compromised by asymptomatic partial placental abruption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Won-Young; Hoh, Jeong-Kyu

    2015-12-01

    We analyzed fetal heart rate (FHR) parameters, dynamics, and outcomes in pregnancies with asymptomatic partial placental abruption (PPA) compared with those in normal pregnancies. We examined nonstress test (NST) data acquired from 2003 to 2012 at our institution. Normal pregnancies (N = 170) and PPA cases (N = 17) were matched for gestational age, fetal sex, and mean FHR. NSTs were performed at 33-42 weeks of gestation. FHR parameters obtained from the NST and perinatal outcomes were analyzed using linear methods. Nonlinear indices, including approximate entropy (ApEn), sample entropy (SampEn), short-term and long-term scaling exponents (α1 and α2), and correlation dimension (CD), were used to interpret FHR dynamics and system complexity. The area under a receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the nonlinear indices. There were no significant differences in general characteristics and FHR parameters between the PPA and control groups. However, gestational age at delivery, birth weight, 5-min Apgar scores, ApEn, SampEn, and CD were significantly lower in the PPA group than in the control group (P Nonlinear dynamic indices of FHR in asymptomatic PPA were qualitatively different from those in normal pregnancies, whereas the conventional FHR parameters were not significantly different. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Northern peatland initiation lagged abrupt increases in deglacial atmospheric CH4.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyes, Alberto V; Cooke, Colin A

    2011-03-22

    Peatlands are a key component of the global carbon cycle. Chronologies of peatland initiation are typically based on compiled basal peat radiocarbon (14C) dates and frequency histograms of binned calibrated age ranges. However, such compilations are problematic because poor quality 14C dates are commonly included and because frequency histograms of binned age ranges introduce chronological artefacts that bias the record of peatland initiation. Using a published compilation of 274 basal 14C dates from Alaska as a case study, we show that nearly half the 14C dates are inappropriate for reconstructing peatland initiation, and that the temporal structure of peatland initiation is sensitive to sampling biases and treatment of calibrated 14C dates. We present revised chronologies of peatland initiation for Alaska and the circumpolar Arctic based on summed probability distributions of calibrated 14C dates. These revised chronologies reveal that northern peatland initiation lagged abrupt increases in atmospheric CH4 concentration at the start of the Bølling-Allerød interstadial (Termination 1A) and the end of the Younger Dryas chronozone (Termination 1B), suggesting that northern peatlands were not the primary drivers of the rapid increases in atmospheric CH4. Our results demonstrate that subtle methodological changes in the synthesis of basal 14C ages lead to substantially different interpretations of temporal trends in peatland initiation, with direct implications for the role of peatlands in the global carbon cycle.

  11. Abrupt state change of river water quality (turbidity): Effect of extreme rainfalls and typhoons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chih-Sheng; Lee, Yi-Chao; Chiang, Hui-Min

    2016-07-01

    River turbidity is of dynamic nature, and its stable state is significantly changed during the period of heavy rainfall events. The frequent occurrence of typhoons in Taiwan has caused serious problems in drinking water treatment due to extremely high turbidity. The aim of the present study is to evaluate impact of typhoons on river turbidity. The statistical methods used included analyses of paired annual mean and standard deviation, frequency distribution, and moving standard deviation, skewness, and autocorrelation; all clearly indicating significant state changes of river turbidity. Typhoon Morakot of 2009 (recorded high rainfall over 2000mm in three days, responsible for significant disaster in southern Taiwan) is assumed as a major initiated event leading to critical state change. In addition, increasing rate of turbidity in rainfall events is highly and positively correlated with rainfall intensity both for pre- and post-Morakot periods. Daily turbidity is also well correlated with daily flow rate for all the eleven events evaluated. That implies potential prediction of river turbidity by river flow rate during rainfall and typhoon events. Based on analysis of stable state changes, more effective regulations for better basin management including soil-water conservation in watershed are necessary. Furthermore, municipal and industrial water treatment plants need to prepare and ensure the adequate operation of water treatment with high raw water turbidity (e.g., >2000NTU). Finally, methodology used in the present of this study can be applied to other environmental problems with abrupt state changes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Collaborative Project: Development of an Isotope-Enabled CESM for Testing Abrupt Climate Changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Zhengyu [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences

    2018-01-24

    One of the most important validations for a state-of-art Earth System Model (ESM) with respect to climate changes is the simulation of the climate evolution and abrupt climate change events in the Earth’s history of the last 21,000 years. However, one great challenge for model validation is that ESMs usually do not directly simulate geochemical variables that can be compared directly with past proxy records. In this proposal, we have met this challenge by developing the simulation capability of major isotopes in a state-of-art ESM, the Community Earth System Model (CESM), enabling us to make direct model-data comparison by comparing the model directly against proxy climate records. Our isotope-enabled ESM incorporates the capability of simulating key isotopes and geotracers, notably δ18O, δD, δ14C, and δ13C, Nd and Pa/Th. The isotope-enabled ESM have been used to perform some simulations for the last 21000 years. The direct comparison of these simulations with proxy records has shed light on the mechanisms of important climate change events.

  13. Numerical simulation of strongly swirling turbulent flows through an abrupt expansion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paik, Joongcheol; Sotiropoulos, Fotis

    2010-01-01

    Turbulent swirling flow through an abrupt axisymmetric expansion is investigated numerically using detached-eddy simulation at Reynolds numbers = 3.0 x 10 4 and 1.0 x 10 5 . The effects of swirl intensity on the coherent dynamics of the flow are systematically studied by carrying out numerical simulations over a range of swirl numbers from 0.17 to 1.23. Comparison of the computed solutions with the experimental measurements of shows that the numerical simulations resolve both the axial and swirl mean velocity and turbulence intensity profiles with very good accuracy. Our simulations show that, along with moderate mesh refinement, critical prerequisite for accurate predictions of the flow downstream of the expansion is the specification of inlet conditions at a plane sufficiently far upstream of the expansion in order to avoid the spurious suppression of the low-frequency, large-scale precessing of the vortex core. Coherent structure visualizations with the q-criterion, friction lines and Lagrangian particle tracking are used to elucidate the rich dynamics of the flow as a function of the swirl number with emphasis on the onset of the spiral vortex breakdown, the onset and extent of the on-axis recirculation region and the large-scale instabilities along the shear layers and the pipe wall.

  14. DNS of transcritical turbulent boundary layers at supercritical pressures under abrupt variations in thermodynamic properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawai, Soshi

    2014-11-01

    In this talk, we first propose a numerical strategy that is robust and high-order accurate for enabling to simulate transcritical flows at supercritical pressures under abrupt variations in thermodynamic properties due to the real fluid effects. The method is based on introducing artificial density diffusion in a physically-consistent manner in order to capture the steep variation of thermodynamic properties in transcritical conditions robustly, while solving a pressure evolution equation to achieve pressure equilibrium at the transcritical interfaces. We then discuss the direct numerical simulation (DNS) of transcritical heated turbulent boundary layers on a zero-pressure-gradient flat plate at supercritical pressures. To the best of my knowledge, the present DNS is the first DNS of zero-pressure-gradient flat-plate transcritical turbulent boundary layer. The turbulent kinetic budget indicates that the compressibility effects (especially, pressure-dilatation correlation) are not negligible at the transcritical conditions even if the flow is subsonic. The unique and interesting interactions between the real fluid effects and wall turbulence, and their turbulence statistics, which have never been seen in the ideal-fluid turbulent boundary layers, are also discussed. This work was supported in part by Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (A) KAKENHI 26709066 and the JAXA International Top Young Fellowship Program.

  15. Absence of Circadian Rhythms of Preterm Premature Rupture of Membranes and Preterm Placental Abruption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luque-Fernandez, Miguel Angel; Ananth, Cande V.; Sanchez, Sixto E.; Qiu, Chun-fang; Hernandez-Diaz, Sonia; Valdimarsdottir, Unnur; Gelaye, Bizu; Williams, Michelle A.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose Data regarding circadian rhythm in the onset of spontaneous preterm premature rupture of membranes (PROM) and placental abruption (PA) cases are conflicting. We modeled the time of onset of preterm PROM and PA cases and examined if the circadian profiles varied based on the gestational age at delivery. Methods We used parametric and nonparametric methods, including trigonometric regression in the framework of generalized linear models, to test the presence of circadian rhythms in the time of onset of preterm PROM and PA cases, among 395 women who delivered a singleton between 2009 and 2010 in Lima, Peru. Results We found a diurnal circadian pattern, with a morning peak at 07h:32’ (95%CI:05h:46’ – 09h:18’) among moderate preterm PROM cases (P-value<0.001), and some evidence of a diurnal circadian periodicity among PA cases in term infants (P-value=0.067). However, we did not find evidence of circadian rhythms in the time of onset of extremely or very preterm PROM (P-value=0.259) and preterm PA (P-value=0.224). Conclusions The circadian rhythms of the time of onset of preterm PROM and PA cases varied based on gestational weeks at delivery. While circadian rhythms were presented among moderate preterm PROM and term PA cases, there was no evidence of circadian rhythms among preterm PA and very or extremely preterm PROM cases, underlying other mechanisms associated with the time of onset. PMID:25453346

  16. Clean Nanotube Unzipping by Abrupt Thermal Expansion of Molecular Nitrogen: Graphene Nanoribbons with Atomically Smooth Edges

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sumpter, Bobby G [ORNL; Meunier, Vincent [ORNL; Terrones, M. [Universidad Carlos III, Madrid, Spain; Endo, M [Shinshu University; Munoz-Sandoval, Emilio [IPICyT; Kim, Y A [Shinshu University; Morelos-Bomez, Aaron [Shinshu University; Vega-Diaz, Sofia [Shinshu University

    2012-01-01

    We report a novel physicochemical route to produce highly crystalline nitrogen-doped graphene nanoribbons. The technique consists of an abrupt N2 gas expansion within the hollow core of nitrogen-doped multiwalled carbon nanotubes (CNx-MWNTs) when exposed to a fast thermal shock. The multiwalled nanotube unzipping mechanism is rationalized using molecular dynamics and density functional theory simulations, which highlight the importance of open-ended nanotubes in promoting the efficient introduction of N2 molecules by capillary action within tubes and surface defects, thus triggering an efficient and atomically smooth unzipping. The so-produced nanoribbons could be few-layered (from graphene bilayer onward) and could exhibit both crystalline zigzag and armchair edges. In contrast to methods developed previously, our technique presents various advantages: (1) the tubes are not heavily oxidized; (2) the method yields sharp atomic edges within the resulting nanoribbons; (3) the technique could be scaled up for the bulk production of crystalline nanoribbons from available MWNT sources; and (4) this route could eventually be used to unzip other types of carbon nanotubes or intercalated layered materials such as BN, MoS2, WS2, etc.

  17. Abrupt decadal-to-centennial hydroclimate changes in the Mediterranean region since the mid-Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Hsun-Ming; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Jiang, Xiuyang; Wang, Yongjin; Mii, Horng-Sheng; Michel, Véronique

    2016-04-01

    A series of severe drought events in the Mediterranean region over the past two decades has posed a threat on both human society and biosystem. Holocene hydrological dynamics can offer valuable clues for understanding future climate and making proper adaption strategy. Here, we present a decadal-resolved stalagmite record documenting various hydroclimatic fluctuations in the north central Mediterranean region since the middle Holocene. The stalagmite δ18O sequence shows dramatic instability, characterized by abrupt shifts between dry and wet conditions Mycenaean Greece, Akkadian Empire, Egyptian Old Kingdom, and Uruk, occurred during the drought events, suggesting an important role of climate impact on human civilization. The unstable hydroclimate evolution is related to transferred North Atlantic Oscillation states. Rate of rapid transfer of precipitation patterns, which can be pin-pointed by our good chronology, improves the prediction to future climate changes in North Atlantic region. We also found that a strong correlation between this stalagmite δ18O and sea surface temperatures especially in Pacific Ocean. This agreement suggests a distant interregional climate teleconnection.

  18. Ecosystem quality in LCIA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Woods, John S.; Damiani, Mattia; Fantke, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: Life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) results are used to assess potential environmental impacts of different products and services. As part of the UNEP-SETAC life cycle initiative flagship project that aims to harmonize indicators of potential environmental impacts, we provide a consensus...... viewpoint and recommendations for future developments in LCIA related to the ecosystem quality area of protection (AoP). Through our recommendations, we aim to encourage LCIA developments that improve the usefulness and global acceptability of LCIA results. Methods: We analyze current ecosystem quality...... metrics and provide recommendations to the LCIA research community for achieving further developments towards comparable and more ecologically relevant metrics addressing ecosystem quality. Results and discussion: We recommend that LCIA development for ecosystem quality should tend towards species...

  19. List identifies threatened ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Showstack, Randy

    2012-09-01

    The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) announced on 9 September that it will develop a new Red List of Ecosystems that will identify which ecosystems are vulnerable or endangered. The list, which is modeled on the group's Red List of Threatened Species™, could help to guide conservation activities and influence policy processes such as the Convention on Biological Diversity, according to the group. “We will assess the status of marine, terrestrial, freshwater, and subterranean ecosystems at local, regional, and global levels,” stated Jon Paul Rodriguez, leader of IUCN's Ecosystems Red List Thematic Group. “The assessment can then form the basis for concerted implementation action so that we can manage them sustainably if their risk of collapse is low or restore them if they are threatened and then monitor their recovery.”

  20. Formation of Service Ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonas, Julia M.; Sörhammar, David; Satzger, Gerhard

    – i.e. the “birth phase” (Moore, 2009) of a service ecosystem. This paper, therefore, aims to explore how the somewhat “magic” processes of service ecosystem formation that are being taken for granted actually occur. Methodology/Approach: Building on a review of core elements in the definitions...... for Harvard students) or value proposition (share messages, photos, videos, etc. with friends). Processes of configuring actors, resources, and value propositions are influenced by the structural embeddedness of the service ecosystem (e.g., regional infrastructure, existing networks of actors, or resource...... availability) as well as guided by the actors’ own and shared institutions (e.g., rules, norms,and beliefs).We contextualize each starting point with illustrative cases and analyze the service ecosystem configuration process: “Axoon/Trumpf” (initiated by resources), “JOSEPHS – the service manufactory...

  1. Revisiting software ecosystems research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manikas, Konstantinos

    2016-01-01

    ‘Software ecosystems’ is argued to first appear as a concept more than 10 years ago and software ecosystem research started to take off in 2010. We conduct a systematic literature study, based on the most extensive literature review in the field up to date, with two primarily aims: (a) to provide...... an updated overview of the field and (b) to document evolution in the field. In total, we analyze 231 papers from 2007 until 2014 and provide an overview of the research in software ecosystems. Our analysis reveals a field that is rapidly growing both in volume and empirical focus while becoming more mature...... from evolving. We propose means for future research and the community to address them. Finally, our analysis shapes the view of the field having evolved outside the existing definitions of software ecosystems and thus propose the update of the definition of software ecosystems....

  2. Ecosystem Analysis Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burgess, R.L.

    1978-01-01

    Progress is reported on the following research programs: analysis and modeling of ecosystems; EDFB/IBP data center; biome analysis studies; land/water interaction studies; and computer programs for development of models

  3. Stakeholder Values and Ecosystems

    OpenAIRE

    Sveinsdottir, Thordis; Wessels, Bridgette; Smallwood, Rod; Linde, Peter; Kalla, Vasso; Tsoukala, Victoria; Sondervan, Jeroen

    2013-01-01

    This report is the deliverable for Work Package 1 (WP1), Stakeholder Values and Ecosystems, of the EU FP7 funded project RECODE (Grant Agreement No: 321463), which focuses on developing Policy Recommendations for Open Access to Research Data in Europe. WP1 focuses on understanding stakeholder values and ecosystems in Open Access, dissemination and preservation in the area of scientific and scholarly data (thus not government data). The objectives of this WP are as follows: • Identify and map ...

  4. Terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Davis-Reddy, Claire

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Ecoregions Terrestrial Biomes Protected Areas Climate Risk and Vulnerability: A Handbook for Southern Africa | 75 7.2. Non-climatic drivers of ecosystem change 7.2.1. Land-use change, habitat loss and fragmentation Land-use change and landscape... concentrations of endemic plant and animal species, but these mainly occur in areas that are most threatened by human activity. Diverse terrestrial ecosystems in the region include tropical and sub-tropical forests, deserts, savannas, grasslands, mangroves...

  5. Privacy driven internet ecosystem

    OpenAIRE

    Trinh, Tuan Anh; Gyarmati, Laszlo

    2012-01-01

    The dominant business model of today's Internet is built upon advertisements; users can access Internet services while the providers show ads to them. Although significant efforts have been made to model and analyze the economic aspects of this ecosystem, the heart of the current status quo, namely privacy, has not received the attention of the research community yet. Accordingly, we propose an economic model of the privacy driven Internet ecosystem where privacy is handled as an asset that c...

  6. Diatoms as Proxies for Abrupt Events in the Hudson River Estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skorski, W.; Abbott, D. H.; Recasens, C.; Breger, D. L.

    2014-12-01

    The Hudson River estuary has been subject to many abrupt events throughout its history including hurricanes, droughts and pluvials. Hurricanes in particular are rare, discrete events that if fingerprinted can be used to develop better age models for Hudson River sediments. Proxies use observed physical characteristics or biological assemblages (e.g. diatom and foraminiferal assemblages) as tools to reconstruct past conditions prior to the modern instrumental record. Using a sediment core taken from the Hudson River (CDO2-29A), in New York City, drought and pluvial layers were selected based on Cs-137 dating while hurricane layers were determined from occurrences of tropical to subtropical foraminifera. Contrary to previous studies (Weaver, 1970, Weiss et al, 1978), more than sixty different diatom species have been identified using a scanning electron microscope (SEM). Cosmopolitan, hurricane and drought assemblages have begun to be identified after observing multiple layers (Table 1). Tropical foraminifera dominated by Globigerinoides ruber pink were also found in a hurricane layer that we infer was deposited during Hurricane Belle in 1976. More diatom abundance analyses and cataloged SEM pictures will provide further insight into these proxies. Table 1 Diatom Genera and Species Environment Clarification Cyclotella caspia Planktonic, marine-brackish Cosmopolitan Karayevia clevei Freshwater Cosmopolitan Melosira sp Planktonic, marine Cosmopolitan Thalassiosira sp Marine, brackish Cosmopolitan Staurosirella leptostauron Benthic, freshwater Cosmopolitan Actinoptychus senarius Planktonic or benthic, freshwater to brackish Hurricane and pluvial layers Amphora aff. sp Benthic, marine or freshwater Hurricane layers only Nitzschia sp Benthic, marine or freshwater Hurricane layers only Gomphonema sp Freshwater Hurricane layers only Surirella sp Marine-brackish Drought layer only Triceratium sp Marine Drought layer only Other Genera and species Environment Clarification

  7. Minimal geological methane emissions during the Younger Dryas-Preboreal abrupt warming event.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrenko, Vasilii V; Smith, Andrew M; Schaefer, Hinrich; Riedel, Katja; Brook, Edward; Baggenstos, Daniel; Harth, Christina; Hua, Quan; Buizert, Christo; Schilt, Adrian; Fain, Xavier; Mitchell, Logan; Bauska, Thomas; Orsi, Anais; Weiss, Ray F; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P

    2017-08-23

    Methane (CH 4 ) is a powerful greenhouse gas and plays a key part in global atmospheric chemistry. Natural geological emissions (fossil methane vented naturally from marine and terrestrial seeps and mud volcanoes) are thought to contribute around 52 teragrams of methane per year to the global methane source, about 10 per cent of the total, but both bottom-up methods (measuring emissions) and top-down approaches (measuring atmospheric mole fractions and isotopes) for constraining these geological emissions have been associated with large uncertainties. Here we use ice core measurements to quantify the absolute amount of radiocarbon-containing methane ( 14 CH 4 ) in the past atmosphere and show that geological methane emissions were no higher than 15.4 teragrams per year (95 per cent confidence), averaged over the abrupt warming event that occurred between the Younger Dryas and Preboreal intervals, approximately 11,600 years ago. Assuming that past geological methane emissions were no lower than today, our results indicate that current estimates of today's natural geological methane emissions (about 52 teragrams per year) are too high and, by extension, that current estimates of anthropogenic fossil methane emissions are too low. Our results also improve on and confirm earlier findings that the rapid increase of about 50 per cent in mole fraction of atmospheric methane at the Younger Dryas-Preboreal event was driven by contemporaneous methane from sources such as wetlands; our findings constrain the contribution from old carbon reservoirs (marine methane hydrates, permafrost and methane trapped under ice) to 19 per cent or less (95 per cent confidence). To the extent that the characteristics of the most recent deglaciation and the Younger Dryas-Preboreal warming are comparable to those of the current anthropogenic warming, our measurements suggest that large future atmospheric releases of methane from old carbon sources are unlikely to occur.

  8. Sea-level response to abrupt ocean warming of Antarctic ice shelves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pattyn, Frank

    2016-04-01

    Antarctica's contribution to global sea-level rise increases steadily. A fundamental question remains whether the ice discharge will lead to marine ice sheet instability (MISI) and collapse of certain sectors of the ice sheet or whether ice loss will increase linearly with the warming trends. Therefore, we employ a newly developed ice sheet model of the Antarctic ice sheet, called f.ETISh (fast Elementary Thermomechanical Ice Sheet model) to simulate ice sheet response to abrupt perturbations in ocean and atmospheric temperature. The f.ETISh model is a vertically integrated hybrid (SSA/SIA) ice sheet model including ice shelves. Although vertically integrated, thermomechanical coupling is ensured through a simplified representation of ice sheet thermodynamics based on an analytical solution of the vertical temperature profile, including strain heating and horizontal advection. The marine boundary is represented by a flux condition either coherent with power-law basal sliding (Pollard & Deconto (2012) based on Schoof (2007)) or according to Coulomb basal friction (Tsai et al., 2015), both taking into account ice-shelf buttressing. Model initialization is based on optimization of the basal friction field. Besides the traditional MISMIP tests, new tests with respect to MISI in plan-view models have been devised. The model is forced with stepwise ocean and atmosphere temperature perturbations. The former is based on a parametrised sub-shelf melt (limited to ice shelves), while the latter is based on present-day mass balance/surface temperature and corrected for elevation changes. Surface melting is introduced using a PDD model. Results show a general linear response in mass loss to ocean warming. Nonlinear response due to MISI occurs under specific conditions and is highly sensitive to the basal conditions near the grounding line, governed by both the initial conditions and the basal sliding/deformation model. The Coulomb friction model leads to significantly higher

  9. Minimal geological methane emissions during the Younger Dryas-Preboreal abrupt warming event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrenko, Vasilii V.; Smith, Andrew M.; Schaefer, Hinrich; Riedel, Katja; Brook, Edward; Baggenstos, Daniel; Harth, Christina; Hua, Quan; Buizert, Christo; Schilt, Adrian; Fain, Xavier; Mitchell, Logan; Bauska, Thomas; Orsi, Anais; Weiss, Ray F.; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P.

    2017-08-01

    Methane (CH4) is a powerful greenhouse gas and plays a key part in global atmospheric chemistry. Natural geological emissions (fossil methane vented naturally from marine and terrestrial seeps and mud volcanoes) are thought to contribute around 52 teragrams of methane per year to the global methane source, about 10 per cent of the total, but both bottom-up methods (measuring emissions) and top-down approaches (measuring atmospheric mole fractions and isotopes) for constraining these geological emissions have been associated with large uncertainties. Here we use ice core measurements to quantify the absolute amount of radiocarbon-containing methane (14CH4) in the past atmosphere and show that geological methane emissions were no higher than 15.4 teragrams per year (95 per cent confidence), averaged over the abrupt warming event that occurred between the Younger Dryas and Preboreal intervals, approximately 11,600 years ago. Assuming that past geological methane emissions were no lower than today, our results indicate that current estimates of today’s natural geological methane emissions (about 52 teragrams per year) are too high and, by extension, that current estimates of anthropogenic fossil methane emissions are too low. Our results also improve on and confirm earlier findings that the rapid increase of about 50 per cent in mole fraction of atmospheric methane at the Younger Dryas-Preboreal event was driven by contemporaneous methane from sources such as wetlands; our findings constrain the contribution from old carbon reservoirs (marine methane hydrates, permafrost and methane trapped under ice) to 19 per cent or less (95 per cent confidence). To the extent that the characteristics of the most recent deglaciation and the Younger Dryas-Preboreal warming are comparable to those of the current anthropogenic warming, our measurements suggest that large future atmospheric releases of methane from old carbon sources are unlikely to occur.

  10. Augmented of turbulent heat transfer in an annular pipe with abrupt expansion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Togun Hussein

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a study of heat transfer to turbulent air flow in the abrupt axisymmetric expansion of an annular pipe. The experimental investigations were performed in the Reynolds number range from 5000 to 30000, the heat flux varied from 1000 to 4000 W/m2, and the expansion ratio was maintained at D/d=1, 1.25, 1.67 and 2. The sudden expansion was created by changing the inner diameter of the entrance pipe to an annular passage. The outer diameter of the inner pipe and the inner diameter of the outer pipe are 2.5 and 10 cm, respectively, where both of the pipes are subjected to uniform heat flux. The distribution of the surface temperature of the test pipe and the local Nusselt number are presented in this investigation. Due to sudden expansion in the cross section of the annular pipe, a separation flow was created, which enhanced the heat transfer. The reduction of the surface temperature on the outer and inner pipes increased with the increase of the expansion ratio and the Reynolds number, and increased with the decrease of the heat flux to the annular pipe. The peak of the local Nusselt number was between 1.64 and 1.7 of the outer and inner pipes for Reynolds numbers varied from 5000 to 30000, and the increase of the local Nusselt number represented the augmentation of the heat transfer rate in the sudden expansion of the annular pipe. This research also showed a maximum heat transfer enhancement of 63-78% for the outer and inner pipes at an expansion ratio of D/d=2 at a Re=30000 and a heat flux of 4000W/m2.

  11. Abrupt acceleration of a 'cold' ultrarelativistic wind from the Crab pulsar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aharonian, F A; Bogovalov, S V; Khangulyan, D

    2012-02-15

    Pulsars are thought to eject electron-positron winds that energize the surrounding environment, with the formation of a pulsar wind nebula. The pulsar wind originates close to the light cylinder, the surface at which the pulsar co-rotation velocity equals the speed of light, and carries away much of the rotational energy lost by the pulsar. Initially the wind is dominated by electromagnetic energy (Poynting flux) but later this is converted to the kinetic energy of bulk motion. It is unclear exactly where this takes place and to what speed the wind is accelerated. Although some preferred models imply a gradual acceleration over the entire distance from the magnetosphere to the point at which the wind terminates, a rapid acceleration close to the light cylinder cannot be excluded. Here we report that the recent observations of pulsed, very high-energy γ-ray emission from the Crab pulsar are explained by the presence of a cold (in the sense of the low energy of the electrons in the frame of the moving plasma) ultrarelativistic wind dominated by kinetic energy. The conversion of the Poynting flux to kinetic energy should take place abruptly in the narrow cylindrical zone of radius between 20 and 50 light-cylinder radii centred on the axis of rotation of the pulsar, and should accelerate the wind to a Lorentz factor of (0.5-1.0) × 10(6). Although the ultrarelativistic nature of the wind does support the general model of pulsars, the requirement of the very high acceleration of the wind in a narrow zone not far from the light cylinder challenges current models.

  12. Fluvial response to abrupt global warming at the Palaeocene/Eocene boundary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foreman, Brady Z; Heller, Paul L; Clementz, Mark T

    2012-11-01

    Climate strongly affects the production of sediment from mountain catchments as well as its transport and deposition within adjacent sedimentary basins. However, identifying climatic influences on basin stratigraphy is complicated by nonlinearities, feedback loops, lag times, buffering and convergence among processes within the sediment routeing system. The Palaeocene/Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) arguably represents the most abrupt and dramatic instance of global warming in the Cenozoic era and has been proposed to be a geologic analogue for anthropogenic climate change. Here we evaluate the fluvial response in western Colorado to the PETM. Concomitant with the carbon isotope excursion marking the PETM we document a basin-wide shift to thick, multistoried, sheets of sandstone characterized by variable channel dimensions, dominance of upper flow regime sedimentary structures, and prevalent crevasse splay deposits. This progradation of coarse-grained lithofacies matches model predictions for rapid increases in sediment flux and discharge, instigated by regional vegetation overturn and enhanced monsoon precipitation. Yet the change in fluvial deposition persisted long after the approximately 200,000-year-long PETM with its increased carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere, emphasizing the strong role the protracted transmission of catchment responses to distant depositional systems has in constructing large-scale basin stratigraphy. Our results, combined with evidence for increased dissolved loads and terrestrial clay export to world oceans, indicate that the transient hyper-greenhouse climate of the PETM may represent a major geomorphic 'system-clearing event', involving a global mobilization of dissolved and solid sediment loads on Earth's surface.

  13. Monetary accounting of ecosystem services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Remme, R.P.; Edens, Bram; Schröter, Matthias; Hein, Lars

    2015-01-01

    Ecosystem accounting aims to provide a better understanding of ecosystem contributions to the economy in a spatially explicit way. Ecosystem accounting monitors ecosystem services and measures their monetary value using exchange values consistent with the System of National Accounts (SNA). We

  14. Controlling abruptly autofocusing vortex beams to mitigate crosstalk and vortex splitting in free-space optical communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Xu; Guo, Lixin; Cheng, Mingjian; Li, Jiangting

    2018-05-14

    Orbital angular momentum (OAM) mode crosstalk induced by atmospheric turbulence is a challenging phenomenon commonly occurring in OAM-based free-space optical (FSO) communication. Recent advances have facilitated new practicable methods using abruptly autofocusing light beams for weakening the turbulence effect on the FSO link. In this work, we show that a circular phase-locked Airy vortex beam array (AVBA) with sufficient elements has the inherent ability to form an abruptly autofocusing light beam carrying OAM, and its focusing properties can be controlled on demand by adjusting the topological charge values and locations of these vortices embedded in the array elements. The performance of a tailored Airy vortex beam array (TAVBA) through atmospheric turbulence is numerically studied. In a comparison with the ring Airy vortex beam (RAVB), the results indicate that TAVBA can be a superior light source for effectively reducing the intermodal crosstalk and vortex splitting, thus leading to improvement in the FSO system performance.

  15. Prenatal vitamin C and E supplementation in smokers is associated with reduced placental abruption and preterm birth: a secondary analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abramovici, A; Gandley, R E; Clifton, R G; Leveno, K J; Myatt, L; Wapner, R J; Thorp, J M; Mercer, B M; Peaceman, A M; Samuels, P; Sciscione, A; Harper, M; Saade, G; Sorokin, Y

    2015-12-01

    Smoking and pre-eclampsia (PE) are associated with increases in preterm birth, placental abruption and low birthweight. We evaluated the relationship between prenatal vitamin C and E (C/E) supplementation and perinatal outcomes by maternal self-reported smoking status focusing on outcomes known to be impacted by maternal smoking. A secondary analysis of a multi-centre trial of vitamin C/E supplementation starting at 9-16 weeks in low-risk nulliparous women with singleton gestations. We examined the effect of vitamin C/E by smoking status at randomisation using the Breslow-Day test for interaction. The trial's primary outcomes were PE and a composite outcome of pregnancy-associated hypertension (PAH) with serious adverse outcomes. Perinatal outcomes included preterm birth and abruption. There were no differences in baseline characteristics within subgroups (smokers versus nonsmokers) by vitamin supplementation status. The effect of prenatal vitamin C/E on the risk of PE (P = 0.66) or PAH composite outcome (P = 0.86) did not differ by smoking status. Vitamin C/E was protective for placental abruption in smokers (relative risk [RR] 0.09; 95% CI 0.00-0.87], but not in nonsmokers (RR 0.92; 95% CI 0.52-1.62) (P = 0.01), and for preterm birth in smokers (RR 0.76; 95% CI 0.58-0.99) but not in nonsmokers (RR 1.03; 95% CI 0.90-1.17) (P = 0.046). In this cohort of women, smoking was not associated with a reduction in PE or the composite outcome of PAH. Vitamin C/E supplementation appears to be associated with a reduction in placental abruption and preterm birth among smokers. © 2014 Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

  16. Isotopic composition of ice core air reveals abrupt Antarctic warming during and after Heinrich Event 1a

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, J. D.; Bereiter, B.; Baggenstos, D.; Kawamura, K.; Shackleton, S. A.; Severinghaus, J. P.

    2017-12-01

    Antarctic temperature variations during Heinrich events, as recorded by δ18O­ice­, generally show more gradual changes than the abrupt warmings seen in Greenland ice. However, quantitative temperature interpretation of the water isotope temperature proxy is difficult as the relationship between δ18Oice and temperature is not constant through time. Fortunately, ice cores offer a second temperature proxy based on trapped gases. During times of surface warming, thermal fractionation of gases in the column of unconsolidated snow (firn) on top of the ice sheet results in isotopically heavier nitrogen (N2) and argon (Ar) being trapped in the ice core bubbles. During times of surface cooling, isotopically lighter gases are trapped. Measurements of δ15N and δ40Ar can therefore be used, in combination with a model for the height of the column of firn, to quantitatively reconstruct surface temperatures. In the WAIS Divide Ice Core, the two temperature proxies show a brief disagreement during Heinrich Stadial 1. Despite δ18Oice recording relatively constant temperature, the nitrogen and argon isotopes imply an abrupt warming between 16 and 15.8 kyr BP, manifest as an abrupt 1.25oC increase in the firn temperature gradient. To our knowledge, this would be the first evidence that such abrupt climate change has been recorded in an Antarctic climate proxy. If confirmed by more detailed studies, this event may represent warming due to an extreme southward shift of the Earth's thermal equator (and the southern hemisphere westerly wind belt), caused by the 16.1 ka Heinrich Event.

  17. Spontaneous abrupt climate change due to an atmospheric blocking-sea-ice-ocean feedback in an unforced climate model simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drijfhout, Sybren; Gleeson, Emily; Dijkstra, Henk A; Livina, Valerie

    2013-12-03

    Abrupt climate change is abundant in geological records, but climate models rarely have been able to simulate such events in response to realistic forcing. Here we report on a spontaneous abrupt cooling event, lasting for more than a century, with a temperature anomaly similar to that of the Little Ice Age. The event was simulated in the preindustrial control run of a high-resolution climate model, without imposing external perturbations. Initial cooling started with a period of enhanced atmospheric blocking over the eastern subpolar gyre. In response, a southward progression of the sea-ice margin occurred, and the sea-level pressure anomaly was locked to the sea-ice margin through thermal forcing. The cold-core high steered more cold air to the area, reinforcing the sea-ice concentration anomaly east of Greenland. The sea-ice surplus was carried southward by ocean currents around the tip of Greenland. South of 70 °N, sea ice already started melting and the associated freshwater anomaly was carried to the Labrador Sea, shutting off deep convection. There, surface waters were exposed longer to atmospheric cooling and sea surface temperature dropped, causing an even larger thermally forced high above the Labrador Sea. In consequence, east of Greenland, anomalous winds changed from north to south, terminating the event with similar abruptness to its onset. Our results imply that only climate models that possess sufficient resolution to correctly represent atmospheric blocking, in combination with a sensitive sea-ice model, are able to simulate this kind of abrupt climate change.

  18. Dimensions of ecosystem theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Neill, R.V.; Reichle, D.E.

    1979-01-01

    Various dimensions of ecosystem structure and behavior that seem to develop from the ubiquitous phenomena of system growth and persistence were studied. While growth and persistence attributes of ecosystems may appear to be simplistic phenomena upon which to base a comprehensive ecosystem theory, these same attributes have been fundamental to the theoretical development of other biological disciplines. These attributes were explored at a hierarchical level in a self-organizing system, and adaptive system strategies that result were analyzed. Previously developed causative relations (Reichle et al., 1975c) were examined, their theoretical implications expounded upon, and the assumptions tested with data from a variety of forest types. The conclusions are not a theory in themselves, but a state of organization of concepts contributing towards a unifying theory, along the lines promulgated by Bray (1958). The inferences drawn rely heavily upon data from forested ecosystems of the world, and have yet to be validated against data from a much more diverse range of ecosystem types. Not all of the interpretations are logically tight - there is room for other explanations, which it is hoped will provide fruitful grounds for further speculation

  19. Spatiotemporal Variation and Abrupt Change Analysis of Temperature from 1960 to 2012 in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanyu Yin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on a monthly dataset of temperature time series (1960–2012 in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China (HHHPC, spatiotemporal variation and abrupt change analysis of temperature were examined by moving average, linear regression, spline interpolation, Mann-Kendall test, and moving t-test. Major conclusions were listed as follows. (1 Annual and seasonal temperature increased with different rates on the process of fluctuating changes during 1960~2012. The upward trend was 0.22°C 10a−1 for annual temperature, while it was very significant in winter (0.34°C 10a−1 and spring (0.31°C 10a−1, moderately significant in autumn (0.21°C 10a−1, and nonsignificant in summer (0.05°C 10a−1. (2 The spatial changes of annual and seasonal temperature were similar. The temperature increased significantly in Beijing and its adjacent regions, while it was nonsignificant in the central and southern regions. (3 The spring, autumn, winter, and annual temperature had warm abrupt change. The abrupt change time for winter temperature was in the late 1970s, while it was in the late 1980s and early 1990s for spring, autumn, and annual temperature. (4 Macroscopic effects of global and regional climate warming and human activities were probably responsible for the temperature changes. The climate warming would influence the hydrological cycle and agricultural crops in the study area.

  20. Ecosystem Vulnerability Review: Proposal of an Interdisciplinary Ecosystem Assessment Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weißhuhn, Peter; Müller, Felix; Wiggering, Hubert

    2018-06-01

    To safeguard the sustainable use of ecosystems and their services, early detection of potentially damaging changes in functional capabilities is needed. To support a proper ecosystem management, the analysis of an ecosystem's vulnerability provide information on its weaknesses as well as on its capacity to recover after suffering an impact. However, the application of the vulnerability concept to ecosystems is still an emerging topic. After providing background on the vulnerability concept, we summarize existing ecosystem vulnerability research on the basis of a systematic literature review with a special focus on ecosystem type, disciplinary background, and more detailed definition of the ecosystem vulnerability components. Using the Web of ScienceTM Core Collection, we overviewed the literature from 1991 onwards but used the 5 years from 2011 to 2015 for an in-depth analysis, including 129 articles. We found that ecosystem vulnerability analysis has been applied most notably in conservation biology, climate change research, and ecological risk assessments, pinpointing a limited spreading across the environmental sciences. It occurred primarily within marine and freshwater ecosystems. To avoid confusion, we recommend using the unambiguous term ecosystem vulnerability rather than ecological, environmental, population, or community vulnerability. Further, common ground has been identified, on which to define the ecosystem vulnerability components exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We propose a framework for ecosystem assessments that coherently connects the concepts of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptability as different ecosystem responses. A short outlook on the possible operationalization of the concept by ecosystem vulnerabilty indices, and a conclusion section complete the review.

  1. Abrupt Climatic Change during the Latest Maastrichtian: Establishing Robust Temporal Links with the Onset of Deccan Volcanism and K/Pg Mass Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnet, J.; Littler, K.; Kroon, D.; Leng, M. J.; Westerhold, T.; Roehl, U.; Zachos, J. C.

    2017-12-01

    A transient period of climate change, characterized by a global warming of 2.5-5°C followed by a cooling to pre-excursion conditions, occurred during the last 300 kyr of the Maastrichtian ( 66.34-66.02 Ma). This instability may have played a role in destabilizing marine and terrestrial ecosystems, priming the system for abrupt extinction at the K-Pg boundary, likely triggered by a large bolide impact. This pre-K-Pg warming event has often been linked to the main phase of Deccan Trap volcanism, however large uncertainties associated with radio-isotopic dating methods of basalts, along with low sedimentation rates and hiatuses in many studied sedimentary sequences, have long hampered a definitive correlation. To complement recent advances in dating of the traps, we have generated the first complete and highest resolution (2.5-4 kyr) benthic stable δ13C and δ18O record for the final million years of the Maastrichtian using the epifaunal foraminifera species Nuttallides truempyi from ODP Site 1262, Walvis Ridge, South Atlantic, calibrated to an updated orbitally-tuned age model. We then compare our data to other previously published geochemical data from other sites in the high, middle, and low latitudes. Our data confirms that the onset of the warming event coincides with the onset of the main phase of Deccan volcanism, strongly suggesting a causal link. Furthermore, spectral analysis of our extended late Maastrichtian-Early Eocene record suggests that the onset of the warming event corresponds to a 405-kyr eccentricity minima, in contrast to many transient warming events (hyperthermals) of the Paleogene, suggesting a control by orbital forcing alone is unlikely. A peculiar feature of the event, compared to other hyperthermals, is a muted carbon cycle response during warming, which may be related to the comparatively heavier δ13C signature of volcanogenic CO2 (-7‰), compared to other sources of light carbon invoked to explain Paleogene hyperthermals. The warming

  2. Abrupt Greenland Ice Sheet runoff and sea water temperature changes since 1821, recorded by coralline algae

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamenos, N.; Hoey, T.; Bedford, J.; Claverie, T.; Fallick, A. E.; Lamb, C. M.; Nienow, P. W.; O'Neill, S.; Shepherd, I.; Thormar, J.

    2012-12-01

    The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) contains the largest store of fresh water in the northern hemisphere, equivalent to ~7.4m of eustatic sea level rise, but its impacts on current, past and future sea level, ocean circulation and European climate are poorly understood. Previous estimates of GrIS melt, from 26 years of satellite observations and temperature driven melt-models over 48 years, show a trend of increasing melt. There are however no runoff data of comparable duration with which to validate temperature-based runoff models, or relationships between the spatial extent of melt and runoff. Further, longer runoff records that extend GrIS melt records to centennial timescales will enable recently observed trends to be put into a better historical context. We measured Mg/Ca, δ18O and structural cell size in annual growth bands of red coralline algae to reconstruct: (1) near surface sea water temperature; and, (2) melt/runoff from the GrIS. (1) Temperature: we reconstructed the longest (1821-2009) sub-annual resolution record of water temperature in Disko Bugt (western Greenland) showing an abrupt change in temperature oscillation patterns during the 1920s which may be attributable to the interaction between atmospheric temperature and mass loss from Jakobshavn Isbrae glacier. (2) GrIS runoff: using samples from distal parts of Søndre Strømfjord we produced the first reconstruction of decadal (1939-2002) GrIS runoff. We observed significant negative relationships between historic runoff, relative salinity and marine summer temperature. Our reconstruction shows a trend of increasing reconstructed runoff since the mid 1980s. In situ summer marine temperatures followed a similar trend. We suggest that since 1939 atmospheric temperatures have been important in forcing runoff. Subject to locating in situ coralline algae samples, these methods can be applied across hundreds to thousands of years. These results show that our technique has significant potential to enhance

  3. Macrosegregation Resulting from Directional Solidification Through an Abrupt Change in Cross-Sections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauer, M.; Poirier, D. R.; Ghods, M.; Tewari, S. N.; Grugel, R. N.

    2017-01-01

    Simulations of the directional solidification of two hypoeutectic alloys (Al-7Si alloy and Al-19Cu) and resulting macrosegregation patterns are presented. The casting geometries include abrupt changes in cross-section from a larger width of 9.5 mm to a narrower 3.2 mm width then through an expansion back to a width of 9.5 mm. The alloys were chosen as model alloys because they have similar solidification shrinkages, but the effect of Cu on changing the density of the liquid alloy is about an order of magnitude greater than that of Si. The simulations compare well with experimental castings that were directionally solidified in a graphite mold in a Bridgman furnace. In addition to the simulations of the directional solidification in graphite molds, some simulations were effected for solidification in an alumina mold. This study showed that the mold must be included in numerical simulations of directional solidification because of its effect on the temperature field and solidification. For the model alloys used for the study, the simulations clearly show the interaction of the convection field with the solidifying alloys to produce a macrosegregation pattern known as "steepling" in sections with a uniform width. Details of the complex convection- and segregation-patterns at both the contraction and expansion of the cross-sectional area are revealed by the computer simulations. The convection and solidification through the expansions suggest a possible mechanism for the formation of stray grains. The computer simulations and the experimental castings have been part of on-going ground-based research with the goal of providing necessary background for eventual experiments aboard the ISS. For casting practitioners, the results of the simulations demonstrate that computer simulations should be applied to reveal interactions between alloy solidification properties, solidification conditions, and mold geometries on macrosegregation. The simulations also presents the

  4. Working group 7: Ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verheyen, R.

    1976-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to evaluate the environmental impact of nuclear power plants. The effects of ionizing radiations, of the thermal and chemical pollution on aquatic ecosystems as well as on terrestrial ecosystems have been estimated. After a general survey of such effects and their interaction, practical conclusions in regard to determined areas such as Meuse-Escaut marine and the coast have been drawn. The contamination effects of food chains have been evaluted under deliberately pessimistic conditions with regard to the choice of the radionuclide as well as of concentration factors. Following the biodegradation conditions of the surface waters, criteria for the quality of the aquatic ecosystems have been established. Finally, attention has been paid on certain factors affecting the site selection especially within the frame of the nature conservation. The effects of cooling towers have been also considered. (G.C.)

  5. Sea Ice Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arrigo, Kevin R.

    2014-01-01

    Polar sea ice is one of the largest ecosystems on Earth. The liquid brine fraction of the ice matrix is home to a diverse array of organisms, ranging from tiny archaea to larger fish and invertebrates. These organisms can tolerate high brine salinity and low temperature but do best when conditions are milder. Thriving ice algal communities, generally dominated by diatoms, live at the ice/water interface and in recently flooded surface and interior layers, especially during spring, when temperatures begin to rise. Although protists dominate the sea ice biomass, heterotrophic bacteria are also abundant. The sea ice ecosystem provides food for a host of animals, with crustaceans being the most conspicuous. Uneaten organic matter from the ice sinks through the water column and feeds benthic ecosystems. As sea ice extent declines, ice algae likely contribute a shrinking fraction of the total amount of organic matter produced in polar waters.

  6. Governance of Ecosystem Services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Primmer, Eeva; Jokinen, Pekka; Blicharska, Malgorzata; Barton, David N.; Bugter, Rob; Potschin, Marion

    2015-01-01

    Biodiversity conservation policies justified with science and intrinsic value arguments have produced disappointing outcomes, and the need for conservation is now being additionally justified with the concept of ecosystem services. However, little, if any empirical attention is paid to ways in

  7. Shelf-sea ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walsh, J J

    1980-01-01

    An analysis of the food chain dynamics of the Oregon, Alaskan, and New York shelves is made with respect to differences in physical forcing of these ecosystems. The world's shelves are 10% of the area of the ocean, yield 99% of the world's fish catch, and may be a major sink in the global CO/sub 2/ budget.

  8. Partitioning ecosystems for sustainability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Martyn G

    2016-03-01

    Decline in the abundance of renewable natural resources (RNRs) coupled with increasing demands of an expanding human population will greatly intensify competition for Earth's natural resources during this century, yet curiously, analytical approaches to the management of productive ecosystems (ecological theory of wildlife harvesting, tragedy of the commons, green economics, and bioeconomics) give only peripheral attention to the driving influence of competition on resource exploitation. Here, I apply resource competition theory (RCT) to the exploitation of RNRs and derive four general policies in support of their sustainable and equitable use: (1) regulate resource extraction technology to avoid damage to the resource base; (2) increase efficiency of resource use and reduce waste at every step in the resource supply chain and distribution network; (3) partition ecosystems with the harvesting niche as the basic organizing principle for sustainable management of natural resources by multiple users; and (4) increase negative feedback between consumer and resource to bring about long-term sustainable use. A simple policy framework demonstrates how RCT integrates with other elements of sustainability science to better manage productive ecosystems. Several problem areas of RNR management are discussed in the light of RCT, including tragedy of the commons, overharvesting, resource collapse, bycatch, single species quotas, and simplification of ecosystems.

  9. Payment for ecosystem services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zandersen, Marianne; Oddershede, Jakob Stoktoft; Pedersen, Anders Branth

    Research question: Northern Europe experiences an increasingly wet climate, leading to more frequent and severe fluvial flood events. Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) is becoming recognised as a valuable yet under-utilised means to alleviating negative effects of a changing climate. This however,...

  10. Biocomplexity in Mangrove Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feller, I. C.; Lovelock, C. E.; Berger, U.; McKee, K. L.; Joye, S. B.; Ball, M. C.

    2010-01-01

    Mangroves are an ecological assemblage of trees and shrubs adapted to grow in intertidal environments along tropical coasts. Despite repeated demonstration of their economic and societal value, more than 50% of the world's mangroves have been destroyed, 35% in the past two decades to aquaculture and coastal development, altered hydrology, sea-level rise, and nutrient overenrichment. Variations in the structure and function of mangrove ecosystems have generally been described solely on the basis of a hierarchical classification of the physical characteristics of the intertidal environment, including climate, geomorphology, topography, and hydrology. Here, we use the concept of emergent properties at multiple levels within a hierarchical framework to review how the interplay between specialized adaptations and extreme trait plasticity that characterizes mangroves and intertidal environments gives rise to the biocomplexity that distinguishes mangrove ecosystems. The traits that allow mangroves to tolerate variable salinity, flooding, and nutrient availability influence ecosystem processes and ultimately the services they provide. We conclude that an integrated research strategy using emergent properties in empirical and theoretical studies provides a holistic approach for understanding and managing mangrove ecosystems.

  11. Estimating ecosystem carbon change in the Conterminous United States based on 40 years of land-use change and disturbance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sleeter, B. M.; Rayfield, B.; Liu, J.; Sherba, J.; Daniel, C.; Frid, L.; Wilson, T. S.; Zhu, Z.

    2016-12-01

    Since 1970, the combined changes in land use, land management, climate, and natural disturbances have dramatically altered land cover in the United States, resulting in the potential for significant changes in terrestrial carbon storage and flux between ecosystems and the atmosphere. Processes including urbanization, agricultural expansion and contraction, and forest management have had impacts - both positive and negative - on the amount of natural vegetation, the age structure of forests, and the amount of impervious cover. Anthropogenic change coupled with climate-driven changes in natural disturbance regimes, particularly the frequency and severity of wildfire, together determine the spatio-temporal patterns of land change and contribute to changing ecosystem carbon dynamics. Quantifying this effect and its associated uncertainties is fundamental to developing a rigorous and transparent carbon monitoring and assessment programs. However, large-scale systematic inventories of historical land change and their associated uncertainties are sparse. To address this need, we present a newly developed modeling framework, the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS). The LUCAS model integrates readily available high quality, empirical land-change data into a stochastic space-time simulation model representing land change feedbacks on carbon cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. We applied the LUCAS model to estimate regional scale changes in carbon storage, atmospheric flux, and net biome production in 84 ecological regions of the conterminous United States for the period 1970-2015. The model was parameterized using a newly available set of high resolution (30 m) land-change data, compiled from Landsat remote sensing imagery, including estimates of uncertainty. Carbon flux parameters for each ecological region were derived from the IBIS dynamic global vegetation model with full carbon cycle accounting. This paper presents our initial findings describing regional and

  12. [Urban ecosystem services: A review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Qi-zheng; Huang, Gan-lin; Wu, Jian-guo

    2015-04-01

    Maintaining and improving ecosystem services in urban areas and human well-being are essential for sustainable development and therefore constitute an important topic in urban ecology. Here we reviewed studies on ecosystem services in urban areas. Based on the concept and classification of urban ecosystem services, we summarized characteristics of urban ecosystem services, including the human domination, high demand of ecosystem services in urban areas, spatial heterogeneity and temporal dynamics of ecosystem services supply and demand in urban areas, multi-services of urban green infrastructures, the socio-economic dimension of ecosystem services supply and ecosystem disservices in urban areas. Among different urban ecosystem services, the regulating service and cultural service are particularly indispensable to benefit human health. We pointed out that tradeoffs among different types of ecosystem services mostly occur between supportive service and cultural service, as well as regulating service and cultural service. In particular, we emphasized the relationship between landscape design (i.e. green infrastructure) and ecosystem services supply. Finally, we discussed current gaps to link urban ecosystem services studies to landscape design and management and pointed out several directions for future research in urban ecosystem services.

  13. Physiological responses of coccolithophores to abrupt exposure of naturally low pH deep seawater.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iglesias-Rodriguez, Maria Debora; Jones, Bethan M; Blanco-Ameijeiras, Sonia; Greaves, Mervyn; Huete-Ortega, Maria; Lebrato, Mario

    2017-01-01

    Upwelling is the process by which deep, cold, relatively high-CO2, nutrient-rich seawater rises to the sunlit surface of the ocean. This seasonal process has fueled geoengineering initiatives to fertilize the surface ocean with deep seawater to enhance productivity and thus promote the drawdown of CO2. Coccolithophores, which inhabit many upwelling regions naturally 'fertilized' by deep seawater, have been investigated in the laboratory in the context of ocean acidification to determine the extent to which nutrients and CO2 impact their physiology, but few data exist in the field except from mesocosms. Here, we used the Porcupine Abyssal Plain (north Atlantic Ocean) Observatory to retrieve seawater from depths with elevated CO2 and nutrients, mimicking geoengineering approaches. We tested the effects of abrupt natural deep seawater fertilization on the physiology and biogeochemistry of two strains of Emiliania huxleyi of known physiology. None of the strains tested underwent cell divisions when incubated in waters obtained from seawater from ~1,000 m (pH = 7.9; CO2 ~560 p.p.m.; 14-17 μM nitrate) and ~4,800 m (pH = 7.9; CO2 ~600 p.p.m.; 21 μM nitrate). Emiliania huxleyi strain CCMP 88E showed no differences in growth rate or in cellular content or production rates of particulate organic (POC) and inorganic (PIC) carbon and cellular particulate organic nitrogen (PON) between treatments using water from 1,000 m and 4,800 m. However, despite the N:P ratio of seawater being comparable in water from ~1,000 and ~4,800 m, the PON production rates were three times lower in one incubation using water from ~1,000 m compared to values observed in water from ~4,800 m. Thus, the POC:PON ratios were threefold higher in cells that were incubated in ~1,000 m seawater. The heavily calcified strain NZEH exhibited lower growth rates and PIC production rates when incubated in water from ~4,800 m compared to ~1,000 m, while cellular PIC, POC and PON were higher in water from 4,800 m

  14. Disruption of the terrestrial plant ecosystem at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary, western interior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tschudy, R.H.; Pillmore, C.L.; Orth, C.J.; Gilmore, J.S.; Knight, J.D.

    1984-01-01

    The palynologically defined Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary in the western interior of North America occurs at the top of an iridium-rich clay layer. The boundary is characterized by the abrupt disappearance of certain pollen species, immediately followed by a pronounced, geologically brief change in the ratio of fern spores to angiosperm pollen. The occurrence of these changes at two widely separated sites implies continentwide disruption of the terrestrial ecosystem, probably caused by a major catastrophic event at the end of the period.

  15. Simulating changes in ecosystem structure and composition in response to climate change: a case study focused on tropical nitrogen-fixing trees (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medvigy, D.; Levy, J.; Xu, X.; Batterman, S. A.; Hedin, L.

    2013-12-01

    Ecosystems, by definition, involve a community of organisms. These communities generally exhibit heterogeneity in their structure and composition as a result of local variations in climate, soil, topography, disturbance history, and other factors. Climate-driven shifts in ecosystems will likely include an internal re-organization of community structure and composition and as well as the introduction of novel species. In terms of vegetation, this ecosystem heterogeneity can occur at relatively small scales, sometimes of the order of tens of meters or even less. Because this heterogeneous landscape generally has a variable and nonlinear response to environmental perturbations, it is necessary to carefully aggregate the local competitive dynamics between individual plants to the large scales of tens or hundreds of kilometers represented in climate models. Accomplishing this aggregation in a computationally efficient way has proven to be an extremely challenging task. To meet this challenge, the Ecosystem Demography 2 (ED2) model statistically characterizes a distribution of local resource environments, and then simulates the competition between individuals of different sizes and species (or functional groupings). Within this framework, it is possible to explicitly simulate the impacts of climate change on ecosystem structure and composition, including both internal re-organization and the introduction of novel species or functional groups. This presentation will include several illustrative applications of the evolution of ecosystem structure and composition under climate change. One application pertains to the role of nitrogen-fixing species in tropical forests. Will increasing CO2 concentrations increase the demand for nutrients and perhaps give a competitive edge to nitrogen-fixing species? Will potentially warmer and drier conditions make some tropical forests more water-limited, reducing the demand for nitrogen, thereby giving a competitive advantage to non

  16. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Population

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Population data sets provide baseline population information as one of the drivers of ecosystem change. The data helped in...

  17. Economic viewpoints on ecosystem services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Silvis, H.J.; Heide, van der C.M.

    2013-01-01

    to help determine the different values of ecosystems. Ecosystem services are usually divided into four categories: provisioning services, regulating services, cultural services and habitat services (previously denoted as supporting services). This overview highlights economic theories about

  18. Interregional flows of ecosystem services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schröter, Matthias; Koellner, Thomas; Alkemade, Rob; Arnhold, Sebastian; Bagstad, Kenneth J.; Erb, Karl Heinz; Frank, Karin; Kastner, Thomas; Kissinger, Meidad; Liu, Jianguo; López-Hoffman, Laura; Maes, Joachim; Marques, Alexandra; Martín-López, Berta; Meyer, Carsten; Schulp, Catharina J.E.; Thober, Jule; Wolff, Sarah; Bonn, Aletta

    2018-01-01

    Conserving and managing global natural capital requires an understanding of the complexity of flows of ecosystem services across geographic boundaries. Failing to understand and to incorporate these flows into national and international ecosystem assessments leads to incomplete and potentially

  19. Lead-Lag relationships? Asynchrounous and Abrupt Shifts in Atmospheric Circulation, Temperature, and Vegetation during the 8.2 ka Event in the Eastern Mediterranean at Tenaghi Philippon, Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niedermeyer, E. M.; Mulch, A.; Pross, J.

    2017-12-01

    The "8.2 ka event" has been an abrupt and prominent climate perturbation during the Holocene, and is characterized by an episode of generally colder and dryer conditions in the Northern Hemisphere realm. However, evidence to what extent this event has had an impact on climate in the Mediterranean region is ambiguous, in particular with respect to rainfall, temperature and vegetation change on land. Here we present a new, high-resolution record (ø 15 years during the event) of paleotemperatures from the Tenaghi Philippon peat deposit, Eastern Macedonia, Greece, using the MBT'/CBT index based on brGDGTs (branched Glycerol-Dialkyl-Glycerol-Tetraethers). Our data show fairly stable temperatures before the event, which is initiated at 8.1 ka by an abrupt and continuous cooling during the first 35 years of the event. After a short, 10-year episode of minimum temperatures, the event is ended by a similarly abrupt and continuous warming within 38 years. Comparison of our record with a previous study of the stable hydrogen isotopic composition of higher-plant waxes (δDwax) on the same core1 shows that changes in temperature occurred simultaneously with shifts in atmospherics moisture sources (Mediterranean vs Atlantic). Interestingly, further comparison of our data with a previous palynological study of the same core2 reveals that changes in vegetation associated with the 8.2 ka event precede shifts in hydrology and temperature by 100 years. This suggests either pronounced changes in seasonality of temperature and rainfall after the onset of the 8.2 ka event, i.e. at the peak of the event, or that changes in local atmospheric circulation (moisture sources) and temperature where not the initial trigger of changes in vegetation. References: Pross, J., Kotthoff, U., Müller, U.C., Peyron, O., Dormoy, I., Schmiedl, G., Kalaitzidis, S. and Smith, A.M. (2009): Massive perturbation in terrestrial ecosystems of the Eastern Mediterranean region associated with the 8.2 kyr B

  20. Preface: Ecosystem services, ecosystem health and human communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plag, Hans-Peter

    2018-04-01

    This special issue contains a collection of manuscripts that were originally intended to be included in the special issue on "Physics and Economics of Ecosystem Services Flows" (Volume 101, guest editors H. Su, J. Dong and S. Nagarajan) and "Biogeochemical Processes in the Changing Wetland Environment" (Volume 103, guest editors J. Bai, L. Huang and H. Gao). All of them are addressing issues related to ecosystem services in different settings. Ecosystem services are of high value for both the ecosystems and human communities, and understanding the impacts of environmental processes and human activities on ecosystems is of fundamental importance for the preservation of these services.

  1. Promoting Transfer of Ecosystems Concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Yawen; Hmelo-Silver, Cindy E.; Jordan, Rebecca; Eberbach, Catherine; Sinha, Suparna

    2016-01-01

    This study examines to what extent students transferred their knowledge from a familiar aquatic ecosystem to an unfamiliar rainforest ecosystem after participating in a technology-rich inquiry curriculum. We coded students' drawings for components of important ecosystems concepts at pre- and posttest. Our analysis examined the extent to which each…

  2. The Coevolution of Digital Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    SungYong, Um

    2016-01-01

    Digital ecosystems are one of the most important strategic issues in the current digital economy. Digital ecosystems are dynamic and generative. They evolve as new firms join and as heterogeneous systems are integrated into other systems. These features digital ecosystems determine economic and technological success in the competition among…

  3. Quantifying Climate Feedbacks from Abrupt Changes in High-Latitude Trace-Gas Emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhuang, Qianlai

    2012-11-16

    During the three-year project period, Purdue University has specifically accomplished the following: revised the existing Methane Dynamics Model (MDM) to consider the effects of changes of atmospheric pressure; applied the methane dynamics model (MDM) to Siberian region to demonstrate that ebullition estimates could increase previous estimates of regional terrestrial CH{sub 4} emissions 3- to 7-fold in Siberia; Conducted an analysis of the carbon balance of the Arctic Basin from 1997 to 2006 to show that terrestrial areas of the Arctic were a net source of 41.5 Tg CH{sub 4} yr{sup 1} that increased by 0.6 Tg CH{sub 4} yr{sup 1} during the decade of analysis, a magnitude that is comparable with an atmospheric inversion of CH{sub 4}; improved the quantification of CH{sub 4} fluxes in the Arctic with inversion methods; evaluated AIRS CH4 retrieval data with a transport and inversion model and surface flux and aircraft data; to better quantify methane emissions from wetlands, we extended the MDM within a biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), to include a large-scale hydrology model, the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model; more recently, we developed a single box atmospheric chemistry model involving atmospheric methane (CH{sub 4}), carbon monoxide (CO) and radical hydroxyl (OH) to analyze atmospheric CH{sub 4} concentrations from 1984 to 2008.

  4. Drought effects on ecosystem functioning and interactions with CO2 and warming - results from CLIMAITE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beier, Claus; Ibrom, Andreas; Linden, Leon G.; Selsted, Merete B.; Albert, Kristian R.; Kongstad, Jane; Andresen, Louise C.

    2010-05-01

    Current predictions indicate that, unless greenhouse gas emissions are significantly curtailed, atmospheric CO2 concentrations will double during the present century inducing an additional 1.4 to 5.8oC increase in mean global temperature, alterations in global and regional precipitation patterns, and increase the frequency and magnitude of severe weather events (e.g. droughts and floods). Such changes will have strong effects on the terrestrial ecosystems as CO2, temperature and water are main drivers in ecosystem processes. There is growing concern that climate driven changes in precipitation patterns and water availability will have significant effects on ecosystem processes and functioning, and in some regions may be the most influential climate change factor. Yet, it has received much less attention in recent climate change research relative to elevated CO2 and temperature. Furthermore, most precipitation experiments have focussed on water alone despite the fact that at least CO2 and temperature will change simultaneously and both of these factors will have direct or indirect effects on water status and use in the ecosystem. In the CLIMAITE project a Danish heathland has been exposed since 2005 to elevated CO2, temperature and extended drought in a full factorial experiment (Mikkelsen et al., 2008). The CO2 concentration in the canopy level is elevated by 50% by the Free Air Carbon Enrichment (FACE) technique, temperature is elevated by 1-2 °C by the passive night time warming technique and summer drought is extended for 4-6 weeks by rain out shelters. The full factor combination mimics recent climate projections for Denmark 2075. Following the experiments, responses of major ecosystem processes and functioning is recorded. Drought generally leads to hypothesised reductions in most ecosystem processes during and shortly after the drought but on the short term, many of these processes also show a strong potential to recover during rewetting. Drought reduces

  5. Marine Ecosystem Services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hasler, Berit; Ahtiainen, Heini; Hasselström, Linus

    MARECOS (Marine Ecosystem Services) er et tværfagligt studie, der har haft til formål at tilvejebringe information vedrørende kortlægning og værdisætning af økosystemtjenester, som kan anvendes i forbindelse med udformning af regulering på det marine område såvel nationalt, som regionalt og inter...

  6. The river ecosystem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Descy, J.P.; Lambinon, J.

    1984-01-01

    From the standpoint of the ecologist, a river is an ecosystem characterized by its biocoenosis, in dynamic equilibrium with the abiotic environment. This ecosystem can be envisaged at the structural level by examining its physical, chemical and biological properties, together with the relationships existing between these compartments. The biocoenotic structure of a river is relatively complex: it manifests, among other specific features, the presence of plankton communities which show marked space-time variations. The function of the river ecosystem can be approximated by a study of the relationships between the biotic and abiotic components: primary production, secondary production, recycling of organic matter, etc. Lotic environments are subject to frequent disturbance from various forms of man-made pollution: organic pollution, eutrophization, thermal pollution, mineral pollution, contamination by organic and mineral micropollutants, as well as by radionuclides, mechanical pollution and physical degradation. The biocoenotic effects of these forms of pollution may be evaluated, in particular, using biological indicators (bioindicators): these are either able to show the overall impact of the pollution on the biocoenosis or else they permit the detection and evaluation of certain pollutant forms. (author)

  7. Characterizing the Danish telemedicine ecosystem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manikas, Konstantinos; Hansen, Klaus Marius

    2013-01-01

    and interoperability issues, silo solutions, and lack of guidelines and standards. In this paper, we characterise the ecosystem evolved around the telemedicine services in Denmark and study the actors involved in this ecosystem. We establish a method for this study, where we define two actor roles and ways...... of characterizing actor contributions, and apply the method to the largest healthcare region of Denmark. Our findings reveal an ecosystem that is relatively closed to new actors, where the actors tend to be related to single telemedicine applications, the applications have low connectivity, and the most influential...... actors of the ecosystem can be characterised as both being beneficial and inhibitory to the ecosystem prosperity....

  8. Assessing and Projecting Greenhouse Gas Release due to Abrupt Permafrost Degradation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, K.; Ohno, H.; Yokohata, T.; Iwahana, G.; Machiya, H.

    2017-12-01

    Permafrost is a large reservoir of frozen soil organic carbon (SOC; about half of all the terrestrial storage). Therefore, its degradation (i.e., thawing) under global warming may lead to a substantial amount of additional greenhouse gas (GHG) release. However, understanding of the processes, geographical distribution of such hazards, and implementation of the relevant processes in the advanced climate models are insufficient yet so that variations in permafrost remains one of the large source of uncertainty in climatic and biogeochemical assessment and projections. Thermokarst, induced by melting of ground ice in ice-rich permafrost, leads to dynamic surface subsidence up to 60 m, which further affects local and regional societies and eco-systems in the Arctic. It can also accelerate a large-scale warming process through a positive feedback between released GHGs (especially methane), atmospheric warming and permafrost degradation. This three-year research project (2-1605, Environment Research and Technology Development Fund of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan) aims to assess and project the impacts of GHG release through dynamic permafrost degradation through in-situ and remote (e.g., satellite and airborn) observations, lab analysis of sampled ice and soil cores, and numerical modeling, by demonstrating the vulnerability distribution and relative impacts between large-scale degradation and such dynamic degradation. Our preliminary laboratory analysis of ice and soil cores sampled in 2016 at the Alaskan and Siberian sites largely underlain by ice-rich permafrost, shows that, although gas volumes trapped in unit mass are more or less homogenous among sites both for ice and soil cores, large variations are found in the methane concentration in the trapped gases, ranging from a few ppm (similar to that of the atmosphere) to hundreds of thousands ppm We will also present our numerical approach to evaluate relative impacts of GHGs released through dynamic

  9. Ecosystem Management. A Management View

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravn-Jonsen, Lars

    The need for management of the marine ecosystem using a broad perspective has been recommended under a variety of names. This paper uses the term Ecosystem Management, which is seen as a convergence between the ecological idea of an organisational hierarchy and the idea of strategic planning...... with a planning hierarchy---with the ecosystem being the strategic planning level. Management planning requires, in order to establish a quantifiable means and ends chain, that the goals at the ecosystem level can be linked to operational levels; ecosystem properties must therefore be reducible to lower...... organisational levels. Emergence caused by constraints at both the component and system levels gives rise to phenomena that can create links between the ecosystem and operational levels. To create these links, the ecosystem's functional elements must be grouped according to their functionality, ignoring any...

  10. A Well-Designed Parameter Estimation Method for Lifetime Prediction of Deteriorating Systems with Both Smooth Degradation and Abrupt Damage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuanqiang Yu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Deteriorating systems, which are subject to both continuous smooth degradation and additional abrupt damages due to a shock process, can be often encountered in engineering. Modeling the degradation evolution and predicting the lifetime of this kind of systems are both interesting and challenging in practice. In this paper, we model the degradation trajectory of the deteriorating system by a random coefficient regression (RCR model with positive jumps, where the RCR part is used to model the continuous smooth degradation of the system and the jump part is used to characterize the abrupt damages due to random shocks. Based on a specified threshold level, the probability density function (PDF and cumulative distribution function (CDF of the lifetime can be derived analytically. The unknown parameters associated with the derived lifetime distributions can be estimated via a well-designed parameter estimation procedure on the basis of the available degradation recordings of the deteriorating systems. An illustrative example is finally provided to demonstrate the implementation and superiority of the newly proposed lifetime prediction method. The experimental results reveal that our proposed lifetime prediction method with the dedicated parameter estimation strategy can get more accurate lifetime predictions than the rival model in literature.

  11. Oasis deposits in the southern margin of the Taklimakan Desert and abrupt environmental changes during the last 30 ka

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shu, P.; Li, B.; Wang, H.; Cheng, P.; An, Z.; Zhou, W.; Zhang, D. D.

    2017-12-01

    Taklimakan Desert, the largest arid landform in the Eurasia, is one of the most important dust sources in the world. Growing evidences shows that millennial-scale abrupt climate changes during the last glacial period in the region. However, records on millennial-scale climate and environmental changes remain poorly understood because dating eolian, lacustrine, and fluvial sediments and establishing the reliable environmental proxies from these records are always challenging. Here, we present 32 AMS 14C dates of bulk sediments, grain size, and Rb/Sr ratio parameters from the oasis sequence and dates of bulk loess and charcoal from the upstream source regions to examine the significance of oasis sediments on millennial-scale environmental changes in the Taklimakan Desert. We found that substantial reversal of radiocarbon dates on total organic carbon (TOC) was controlled by source region organic carbon input. Loess hills, alpine meadow north of the study region provided fluvial deposits along drainage system and deflation in the river valleys further provide eolain materials. We argue that early oasis deposits experienced deflation and re-deposition less severe than the younger oasis deposits. After refining radiocarbon age-depth relationships for an age model by Bacon package, proxy records show substantial abrupt fluctuations in climate and environments during the last glacial period, among which three wet intervals, two dry periods are identified. The wetter and warmer conditions during the Holocene facilitated human to occupy the oasis.

  12. Abrupt millennial variability and interdecadal-interstadial oscillations in a global coupled model: sensitivity to the background climate state

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arzel, Olivier [The University of New South Wales, Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC), Sydney (Australia); Universite de Bretagne Occidentale, Laboratoire de Physique des Oceans (LPO), Brest (France); England, Matthew H. [The University of New South Wales, Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC), Sydney (Australia); Verdiere, Alain Colin de; Huck, Thierry [Universite de Bretagne Occidentale, Laboratoire de Physique des Oceans (LPO), Brest (France)

    2012-07-15

    The origin and bifurcation structure of abrupt millennial-scale climate transitions under steady external solar forcing and in the absence of atmospheric synoptic variability is studied by means of a global coupled model of intermediate complexity. We show that the origin of Dansgaard-Oeschger type oscillations in the model is caused by the weaker northward oceanic heat transport in the Atlantic basin. This is in agreement with previous studies realized with much simpler models, based on highly idealized geometries and simplified physics. The existence of abrupt millennial-scale climate transitions during glacial times can therefore be interpreted as a consequence of the weakening of the negative temperature-advection feedback. This is confirmed through a series of numerical experiments designed to explore the sensitivity of the bifurcation structure of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to increased atmospheric CO{sub 2} levels under glacial boundary conditions. Contrasting with the cold, stadial, phases of millennial oscillations, we also show the emergence of strong interdecadal variability in the North Atlantic sector during warm interstadials. The instability driving these interdecadal-interstadial oscillations is shown to be identical to that found in ocean-only models forced by fixed surface buoyancy fluxes, that is, a large-scale baroclinic instability developing in the vicinity of the western boundary current in the North Atlantic. Comparisons with modern observations further suggest a physical mechanism similar to that driving the 30-40 years time scale associated with the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. (orig.)

  13. Structure, interface abruptness and strain relaxation in self-assisted grown InAs/GaAs nanowires

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frigeri, Cesare, E-mail: frigeri@imem.cnr.it [CNR-IMEM Institute, Parma (Italy); Scarpellini, David [L–NESS and Dept. Materials Science, University of Milano Bicocca, Milano (Italy); Department of Industrial Engineering University of Rome Tor Vergata, Rome (Italy); Fedorov, Alexey [LNESS and CNR-IFN, Como (Italy); Bietti, Sergio; Somaschini, Claudio [L–NESS and Dept. Materials Science, University of Milano Bicocca, Milano (Italy); Grillo, Vincenzo [CNR-IMEM Institute, Parma (Italy); CNR-S3-NANO Center, Modena (Italy); Esposito, Luca; Salvalaglio, Marco; Marzegalli, Anna; Montalenti, Francesco [L–NESS and Dept. Materials Science, University of Milano Bicocca, Milano (Italy); Sanguinetti, Stefano [L–NESS and Dept. Materials Science, University of Milano Bicocca, Milano (Italy); LNESS and CNR-IFN, Como (Italy)

    2017-02-15

    Highlights: • We study 2 critical issues (interface abruptness and strain release) in InAs/GaAs NWs. • Structural and chemical interface sharpness ≤1.5 nm, better than in previous reports. • Simultaneous elastic and plastic relaxation is shown that agrees with FEM simulations. • Structural, chemical and strain release investigations were performed by STEM. • New MBE self-seeded method whereby InAs is grown by splitting In and As depositions. - Abstract: The structure, interface abruptness and strain relaxation in InAs/GaAs nanowires grown by molecular beam epitaxy in the Ga self-catalysed mode on (111) Si have been investigated by transmission electron microscopy. The nanowires had the zincblende phase. The InAs/GaAs interface was atomically and chemically sharp with a width around 1.5 nm, i.e. significantly smaller than previously reported values. This was achieved by the consumption of the Ga droplet and formation of a flat top facet of the GaAs followed by the growth of InAs by splitting the depositions of In and As. Both elastic and plastic strain relaxation took place simultaneously. Experimental TEM results about strain relaxation very well agree with linear elasticity theory calculations by the finite element methods.

  14. Structure, interface abruptness and strain relaxation in self-assisted grown InAs/GaAs nanowires

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frigeri, Cesare; Scarpellini, David; Fedorov, Alexey; Bietti, Sergio; Somaschini, Claudio; Grillo, Vincenzo; Esposito, Luca; Salvalaglio, Marco; Marzegalli, Anna; Montalenti, Francesco; Sanguinetti, Stefano

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • We study 2 critical issues (interface abruptness and strain release) in InAs/GaAs NWs. • Structural and chemical interface sharpness ≤1.5 nm, better than in previous reports. • Simultaneous elastic and plastic relaxation is shown that agrees with FEM simulations. • Structural, chemical and strain release investigations were performed by STEM. • New MBE self-seeded method whereby InAs is grown by splitting In and As depositions. - Abstract: The structure, interface abruptness and strain relaxation in InAs/GaAs nanowires grown by molecular beam epitaxy in the Ga self-catalysed mode on (111) Si have been investigated by transmission electron microscopy. The nanowires had the zincblende phase. The InAs/GaAs interface was atomically and chemically sharp with a width around 1.5 nm, i.e. significantly smaller than previously reported values. This was achieved by the consumption of the Ga droplet and formation of a flat top facet of the GaAs followed by the growth of InAs by splitting the depositions of In and As. Both elastic and plastic strain relaxation took place simultaneously. Experimental TEM results about strain relaxation very well agree with linear elasticity theory calculations by the finite element methods.

  15. Acute tubular necrosis (ATN) presenting with an unusually prolonged period of marked polyuria heralded by an abrupt oliguric phase.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramoutar, Virin; Landa, Cristian; James, Leighton R

    2014-08-22

    A 50-year-old African-American man presented with acute tubular necrosis (ATN) secondary to hypotension from non-typhoid Salmonella gastroenteritis and bacteraemia. The oliguric phase lasted only 24 h followed by prolonged polyuria for 20 days, with urine output in excess of 16 L/day at maximum. As indexed in PubMed this is only the second published case of this nature since 1974, in which an abrupt oliguric phase of 24 h or less heralded prolonged polyuria in ATN. The diagnosis is challenging as fractional excretion of sodium early in the clinical course and rapid normalisation of serum creatinine with intravenous fluids (IVF) may point towards prerenal azotaemia resulting in a premature discharge from hospital. Patients with an abrupt oliguric phase may suffer a secondary renal insult from the profound fluid loss that is to follow and may need inpatient monitoring with supplemental IVF to prevent deleterious outcomes. 2014 BMJ Publishing Group Ltd.

  16. Analysis of transient permeation behavior of hydrogen isotope caused by abrupt temperature change of first wall and blanket wall material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamawaki, Michio; Tanaka, Satoru; Kiyoshi, Tsukasa

    1989-01-01

    To obtain further information on the transient permeation behavior of hydrogen isotopes as caused by an abrupt temperature change, numerical calculations were carried out for two typical metals, nickel and vanadium. Deuterium permeation through nickel is analyzed as a typical case of bulk-diffusion-limited permeation. Its transient behavior changed dramatically according to the specimen thickness. The transient behavior, in general, is separated into two parts, initial and latter period behaviors. Conditions which cause such a separation were evaluated. Evaluation of the hydrogen diffusivity and solubility by an analysis of transient curves of hydrogen permeation was carried out. The transient behavior of simultaneous gas- and ion-driven hydrogen permeation through vanadium was also analyzed. Overshooting of the hydrogen permeation rate appears with an abrupt temperature increase. Increasing the impinging ion flux causes the overshooting peak to become sharper, and also reduces the change of the steady-state permeation rate to be attained after the temperature change compared with the initial value. (orig.)

  17. Ecosystem-based management and the wealth of ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yun, Seong Do; Hutniczak, Barbara; Abbott, Joshua K.; Fenichel, Eli P.

    2017-01-01

    We merge inclusive wealth theory with ecosystem-based management (EBM) to address two challenges in the science of sustainable management of ecosystems. First, we generalize natural capital theory to approximate realized shadow prices for multiple interacting natural capital stocks (species) making up an ecosystem. These prices enable ecosystem components to be better included in wealth-based sustainability measures. We show that ecosystems are best envisioned as portfolios of assets, where the portfolio’s performance depends on the performance of the underlying assets influenced by their interactions. Second, changes in ecosystem wealth provide an attractive headline index for EBM, regardless of whether ecosystem wealth is ultimately included in a broader wealth index. We apply our approach to the Baltic Sea ecosystem, focusing on the interacting community of three commercially important fish species: cod, herring, and sprat. Our results incorporate supporting services embodied in the shadow price of a species through its trophic interactions. Prey fish have greater shadow prices than expected based on market value, and predatory fish have lower shadow prices than expected based on market value. These results are because correctly measured shadow prices reflect interdependence and limits to substitution. We project that ecosystem wealth in the Baltic Sea fishery ecosystem generally increases conditional on the EBM-inspired multispecies maximum sustainable yield management beginning in 2017, whereas continuing the current single-species management generally results in declining wealth. PMID:28588145

  18. Ecosystem-based management and the wealth of ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yun, Seong Do; Hutniczak, Barbara; Abbott, Joshua K; Fenichel, Eli P

    2017-06-20

    We merge inclusive wealth theory with ecosystem-based management (EBM) to address two challenges in the science of sustainable management of ecosystems. First, we generalize natural capital theory to approximate realized shadow prices for multiple interacting natural capital stocks (species) making up an ecosystem. These prices enable ecosystem components to be better included in wealth-based sustainability measures. We show that ecosystems are best envisioned as portfolios of assets, where the portfolio's performance depends on the performance of the underlying assets influenced by their interactions. Second, changes in ecosystem wealth provide an attractive headline index for EBM, regardless of whether ecosystem wealth is ultimately included in a broader wealth index. We apply our approach to the Baltic Sea ecosystem, focusing on the interacting community of three commercially important fish species: cod, herring, and sprat. Our results incorporate supporting services embodied in the shadow price of a species through its trophic interactions. Prey fish have greater shadow prices than expected based on market value, and predatory fish have lower shadow prices than expected based on market value. These results are because correctly measured shadow prices reflect interdependence and limits to substitution. We project that ecosystem wealth in the Baltic Sea fishery ecosystem generally increases conditional on the EBM-inspired multispecies maximum sustainable yield management beginning in 2017, whereas continuing the current single-species management generally results in declining wealth.

  19. Marine ecosystem response to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Edwards

    Full Text Available Against the backdrop of warming of the Northern Hemisphere it has recently been acknowledged that North Atlantic temperature changes undergo considerable variability over multidecadal periods. The leading component of natural low-frequency temperature variability has been termed the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO. Presently, correlative studies on the biological impact of the AMO on marine ecosystems over the duration of a whole AMO cycle (∼60 years is largely unknown due to the rarity of continuously sustained biological observations at the same time period. To test whether there is multidecadal cyclic behaviour in biological time-series in the North Atlantic we used one of the world's longest continuously sustained marine biological time-series in oceanic waters, long-term fisheries data and historical records over the last century and beyond. Our findings suggest that the AMO is far from a trivial presence against the backdrop of continued temperature warming in the North Atlantic and accounts for the second most important macro-trend in North Atlantic plankton records; responsible for habitat switching (abrupt ecosystem/regime shifts over multidecadal scales and influences the fortunes of various fisheries over many centuries.

  20. Slow Onsets, Abrupt Changes, and Fast Reflexes: Learning from Climate Hazards in a Changing World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, R. S.

    2016-12-01

    constitutes effective adaptation?" Addressing these questions helps align scientifically-informed adaptation goals with human values and aspirations across economies, ecosystems and communities- leading to a fundamental appraisal metric that Gilbert White was fond of posing "Are we doing anything useful?"

  1. Sustainable web ecosystem design

    CERN Document Server

    O'Toole, Greg

    2013-01-01

    This book is about the process of creating web-based systems (i.e., websites, content, etc.) that consider each of the parts, the modules, the organisms - binary or otherwise - that make up a balanced, sustainable web ecosystem. In the current media-rich environment, a website is more than a collection of relative html documents of text and images on a static desktop computer monitor. There is now an unlimited combination of screens, devices, platforms, browsers, locations, versions, users, and exabytes of data with which to interact. Written in a highly approachable, practical style, this boo

  2. Paradox of the peak-PCIM (Paleocene Carbon Isotope Maxima; ~57.8Ma) and Abrupt Global Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harper, D. T.; Hoenisch, B.; Zachos, J. C.

    2015-12-01

    The Paleocene Carbon Isotope Maxima (PCIM; ~57.8Ma) represents a major transition in global δ13C during the late Paleocene, when the long-term positive trend in δ13C reversed from positive to negative. The peak-PCIM (~57.7Ma) has been tightly resolved in new high-resolution, astronomically-tuned benthic isotope records from IODP Sites 1209 (Pacific) and 1262 (Atlantic), which show the final phase of δ13C enrichment as abrupt (~1‰ in paradox as any rapid carbon release to the atmosphere should, in theory, create a negative excursion because all of the major carbon sources are isotopically light, whether volcanic outgassing, weathering/oxidation of organic carbon, or methane release [Dunkley-Jones et al., Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2010]. If global, there are several testable mechanisms that may explain the shift including increase in burial flux of light carbon, a reduction in heavy carbon burial flux, or a large-scale circulation change perhaps associated with the transition of a major oceanic gateway. Using trace metal (B/Ca and Mg/Ca) and stable isotope (δ11B, δ18O, and δ13C) geochemistry, here we establish the nature of the peak-PCIM at sites from 3 different ocean basins (IODP Sites 690, 1209, and 1262) and begin to test several of the possible mechanisms for change. Mg/Ca in mixed-layer planktonic foraminifera show 2-3°C of sea surface warming coinciding with, and abrupt as, the benthic carbon isotope enrichment at all sites. Bottom water Δ[CO32-], as indicated by B/Ca in benthic foraminifera, abruptly increases by 30-40µmol/kgsw. While this may indicate a change in bottom water circulation, surface B-based proxies also respond with a positive shift during the peak-PCIM indicating a slight increase in surface pH and highlighting the global nature of the event.

  3. Radio-capacity of ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kultakhmedov, Yu.; Kultakhmedova-Vyshnyakova, V.

    1997-01-01

    This paper consider a universal approach to ecosystems of different types, based on representation of their radio-capacity. The concept of ecosystem includes reproduction of components (bio-productivity) and conditions such as maintaining of environment quality. Radio-capacity in the case of radionuclide pollution appears in accumulation and redistribution of radionuclides in the ecosystem. As a result the radionuclides are redistributed and buried in soil or lake bottom sediments. Estimation models for the radio-capacity of water and terrestrial ecosystems are represented. The calculations of the radio-capacity factor of water ecosystems are performed, and the high radio-capacity of a freshwater reservoir (F=0.6-0.8) and extremely high radio-capacity of a reservoir cascade (F c =0.99) is shown material from the Dnieper's cascade reservoirs. The methods of radio-capacity estimation of agroecosystems, wood and marine ecosystems are developed. (authors)

  4. Ecosystem services for energy security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Athanas, Andrea; McCormick, Nadine

    2010-09-15

    The world is at an energy crossroads. The changes underway will have implications for ecosystems and livelihoods. Energy security is the reliable supply of affordable energy, of which there are two dimensions; reliability and resilience. Changes in ecosystem services linked to degradation and climate change have the potential to impact both on the reliabiity of energy systems and on their resiliance. Investing in ecosystems can help safeguard energy systems, and mitigate unforeseen risks to energy security. The energy and conservation community should come together to build reliable and resilliant energy systems in ways which recognise and value supporting ecosystems.

  5. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Biodiversity

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: MA Biodiversity provides data and information on amphibians, disease agents (extent and distribution of infectious and parasitic...

  6. Types of Lightning Discharges that Abruptly Terminate Enhanced Fluxes of Energetic Radiation and Particles Observed at Ground Level

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chilingarian, A.; Khanikyants, Y.; Pokhsraryan, D.; Soghomonyan, S.; Mareev, E.; Rakov, V.

    2017-01-01

    We present ground-based measurements of thunderstorm-related enhancements of fluxes of energetic radiation and particles that are abruptly terminated by lightning discharges. All measurements were performed at an altitude of 3200 m above sea level on Mt. Aragats (Armenia). Lightning signatures were recorded using a network of five electric field mills, three of which were placed at the Aragats station, one at the Nor Amberd station (12.8 km from Aragats), and one at the Yerevan station (39 km from Aragats), and a wideband electric field measuring system with a useful frequency bandwidth of 50 Hz to 12 MHZ. It appears that the flux-enhancement termination is associated with close (within 10 km or so of the particle detector) -CGs and normal polarity ICs; that is, with lightning types which reduce the upward-directed electric field below the cloud and, hence, suppress the acceleration of electrons toward the ground. (author)

  7. Energetic rationale for an unexpected and abrupt reversal of guanidinium chloride-induced unfolding of peptide deformylase.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Alexander K; Manokaran, Sumathra; Eiler, Daniel; Kooren, Joel; Mallik, Sanku; Srivastava, D K

    2008-01-01

    Peptide deformylase (PDF) catalyzes the removal of formyl group from the N-terminal methionine residues of nascent proteins in prokaryotes, and this enzyme is a high priority target for antibiotic design. In pursuit of delineating the structural-functional features of Escherichia coli PDF (EcPDF), we investigated the mechanistic pathway for the guanidinium chloride (GdmCl)-induced unfolding of the enzyme by monitoring the secondary structural changes via CD spectroscopy. The experimental data revealed that EcPDF is a highly stable enzyme, and it undergoes slow denaturation in the presence of varying concentrations of GdmCl. The most interesting aspect of these studies has been the abrupt reversal of the unfolding pathway at low to moderate concentrations of the denaturant, but not at high concentration. An energetic rationale for such an unprecedented feature in protein chemistry is offered.

  8. Critical V2O5/TeO2 Ratio Inducing Abrupt Property Changes in Vanadium Tellurite Glasses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kjeldsen, Jonas; Rodrigues, Ana C M; Mossin, Susanne; Yue, Yuanzheng

    2014-12-26

    Transition metal containing glasses have unique electrical properties and are therefore often used for electrochemical applications, such as in batteries. Among oxide glasses, vanadium tellurite glasses exhibit the highest electronic conductivity and thus the high potential for applications. In this work, we investigate how the dynamic and physical properties vary with composition in the vanadium tellurite system. The results show that there exists a critical V(2)O(5) concentration of 45 mol %, above which the local structure is subjected to a drastic change with increasing V(2)O(5), leading to abrupt changes in both hardness and liquid fragility. Electronic conductivity does not follow the expected correlation to the valence state of the vanadium as predicted by the Mott-Austin equation but shows a linear correlation to the mean distance between vanadium ions. These findings could contribute to designing optimum vanadium tellurite compositions for electrochemical devices. The work gives insight into the mechanism of electron conduction in the vanadium tellurite systems.

  9. Final Scientific Report for "The Interhemispheric Pattern in 20th Century and Future Abrupt Change in Regional Tropical Rainfall"

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chiang, John C. H. [University of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Wehner, Michael F. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2012-10-29

    This is the final scientific report for grant DOE-FG02-08ER64588, "The Interhemispheric Pattern in 20th Century and Future Abrupt Change in Regional Tropical Rainfall."The project investigates the role of the interhemispheric pattern in surface temperature – i.e. the contrast between the northern and southern temperature changes – in driving rapid changes to tropical rainfall changes over the 20th century and future climates. Previous observational and modeling studies have shown that the tropical rainband – the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over marine regions, and the summer monsoonal rainfall over land – are sensitive to the interhemispheric thermal contrast; but that the link between the two has not been applied to interpreting long-term tropical rainfall changes over the 20th century and future.The specific goals of the project were to i) develop dynamical mechanisms to explain the link between the interhemispheric pattern to abrupt changes of West African and Asian monsoonal rainfall; ii) Undertake a formal detection and attribution study on the interhemispheric pattern in 20th century climate; and iii) assess the likelihood of changes to this pattern in the future. In line with these goals, our project has produced the following significant results: 1.We have developed a case that suggests that the well-known abrupt weakening of the West African monsoon in the late 1960s was part of a wider co-ordinated weakening of the West African and Asian monsoons, and driven from an abrupt cooling in the high latitude North Atlantic sea surface temperature at the same time. Our modeling work suggests that the high-latitude North Atlantic cooling is effective in driving monsoonal weakening, through driving a cooling of the Northern hemisphere that is amplified by positive radiative feedbacks. 2.We have shown that anthropogenic sulfate aerosols may have partially contributed to driving a progressively southward displacement of the Atlantic Intertropical

  10. High-temperature sensor based on an abrupt-taper Michelson interferometer in single-mode fiber.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Le; Jiang, Lan; Wang, Sumei; Li, Benye; Lu, Yongfeng

    2013-04-01

    This study proposes a high-temperature sensor based on an abrupt fiber-taper Michelson interferometer (FTMI) in single-mode fiber fabricated by a fiber-taper machine and electric-arc discharge. The proposed FTMI is applied to measure temperature and refractive index (RI). A high temperature sensitivity of 118.6 pm/°C is obtained in the temperature range of 500°C-800°C. The wavelength variation is only -0.335 nm for the maximum attenuation peak, with the external RI changed from 1.333 to 1.3902, which is desirable for high-temperature sensing to eliminate the cross sensitivity to RI.

  11. A Generalized Stability Analysis of the AMOC in Earth System Models: Implication for Decadal Variability and Abrupt Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fedorov, Alexey V. [Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States)

    2015-01-14

    The central goal of this research project was to understand the mechanisms of decadal and multi-decadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as related to climate variability and abrupt climate change within a hierarchy of climate models ranging from realistic ocean models to comprehensive Earth system models. Generalized Stability Analysis, a method that quantifies the transient and asymptotic growth of perturbations in the system, is one of the main approaches used throughout this project. The topics we have explored range from physical mechanisms that control AMOC variability to the factors that determine AMOC predictability in the Earth system models, to the stability and variability of the AMOC in past climates.

  12. Abrupt loss of MLH1 and PMS2 expression in endometrial carcinoma: molecular and morphologic analysis of 6 cases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pai, Rish K; Plesec, Thomas P; Abdul-Karim, Fadi W; Yang, Bin; Marquard, Jessica; Shadrach, Bonnie; Roma, Andres R

    2015-07-01

    Given that endometrial cancer (EC) is often the sentinel cancer for female Lynch syndrome patients, we have successfully implemented universal screening of ECs and have previously shown that this is the preferred method to identify these patients. However, during the course of universal screening of EC, we encountered 6 cases with an unusual pattern of mismatch-repair protein immunohistochemistry that has not been previously described in this setting. In these 6 cases, there was an abrupt loss of MLH1 and PMS2 expression in a portion of the tumor. In 3 cases, marked histologic differences were identified between the areas of the tumor with retained expression and areas with loss of expression. In 2 cases, the areas with loss of expression were of higher grade (1 demonstrated solid growth and the other demonstrated increased nuclear atypia with diffuse p53 expression). In 4 tumors, histologic features associated with microsatellite instability (MSI) were present, including increased intraepithelial lymphocytes. The areas with loss of and retained MLH1/PMS2 expression were separately microdissected and assessed for MSI and MLH1 promoter methylation. The areas with loss of MLH1 and PMS2 more commonly demonstrated MSI compared with the areas with intact expression (83% vs. 33%). MLH1 promoter methylation analysis demonstrated heterogenous hypermethylation, as all areas with loss of MLH1/PMS2 expression had more extensive methylation of MLH1 compared with those areas with retained expression. In summary, we describe the histologic and molecular features of 6 cases of EC with abrupt loss of MLH1 and PMS2 expression and demonstrate that heterogenous methylation of the MLH1 promoter results in this distinct and unusual pattern of immunohistochemical expression.

  13. The role of the Asian winter monsoon in the rapid propagation of abrupt climate changes during the last deglaciation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Guoqiang; Sun, Qing; Zhu, Qingzeng; Shan, Yabing; Shang, Wenyu; Ling, Yuan; Su, Youliang; Xie, Manman; Wang, Xishen; Liu, Jiaqi

    2017-12-01

    High-resolution temperature records spanning the last deglaciation from low latitudes are scarce; however, they are important for understanding the rapid propagation of abrupt climate events throughout the Northern Hemisphere and the tropics. Here, we present a branched GDGTs-based temperature reconstruction from the sediments of Maar Lake Huguangyan in tropical China. The record reveals that the mean temperature during the Oldest Dryas was 17.8 °C, which was followed by a two-step increase of 2-3 °C to the Bølling-Allerød, a decrease to 19.8 °C during the Younger Dryas, and a rapid warming at the onset of the Holocene. The Oldest Dryas was about 2 °C warmer than the Younger Dryas. The reconstructed temperature was weighted towards the wintertime since the lake is monomictic and the mixing process in winter supplies nutrients from the lake bottom to the entire water column, greatly promoting biological productivity. In addition, the winter-biased temperature changes observed in the study are more distinctive than the summer-biased temperature records from extra-tropical regions of East Asia. This implies that the temperature decreases during abrupt climatic events were mainly a winter phenomenon. Within the limits of the dating uncertainties, the broadly similar pattern of winter-weighted temperature change observed in both tropical Lake Huguangyan and in Greenland ice cores indicates the occurrence of tightly-coupled interactions between high latitude ice sheets and land areas in the tropics. We suggest that the winter monsoon (especially cold surges) could play an important role in the rapid transmission of the temperature signal from the Arctic to the tropics.

  14. The abrupt temperature changes in the plantar skin thermogram of the diabetic patient: looking in to prevent the insidious ulcers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renero-C, Francisco-J

    2018-01-01

    Background: One of the complications of the diabetes mellitus is the amputation of the lower limbs. This complication may be developed after an insidious ulcer, that may be raised by the peripheral neuropathy or the ischaemic limb, and that the ulcer get infected. That is, to develop an ulcer, in the diabetic patient, three factors should be taken into the account, the autonomic nervous system, the blood supply and the inmune system. Methods: In this work, the thermogram is used to identify regions on the plantar skin with blood supply deficiencies and the behaviour of the thermoregulation process. Within the thermogram of the plantar skin, it can be identify local regions with low and high temperatures that corresponds to ischemic or inflammatory process on that part of the skin. Results: The findings within the 186 thermograms of diabetic patients, obtained from three hospitals and from INAOE facilities, showed, first, the thermograms of the plantar skin of two diabetic patients, acquired in two different times show that the temperature distribution and the average temperatures, vary slightly for a period of weeks. Second, the thermograms of two patients, who both developed insidious ulcers which evolved favourable, demonstrated the importance of the immune system and the drug therapy. These patients are, one who has a Charcot foot, and in the second one, the patient had loss the sensibility of the feet. Finally, the thermograms of two patients, showing abrupt temperature change within small regions in the plantar skin, are discussed. Conclusion: A diabetic patient, with an asymmetric thermogram, as physiological interpretation of the thermoregulation, may indicate a decrease of the blood supply, which may be corroborated by vascular ultrasound. The regions of abrupt temperature change, cold or hot spots, may correspond to ischaemic or inflammatory processes.

  15. The Influence of Stratospheric Sulphate Aerosol Deployment on the Surface Air Temperature and the Risk of an Abrupt Global Warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roland von Glasow

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available We used the ‘Radiative-Convective Model of the Earth-atmosphere system’ (OGIM to investigate the cooling effects induced by sulphur injections into the stratosphere. The ensemble of numerical calculations was based on the A1B scenario from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES. Several geoengineered scenarios were analysed, including the abrupt interruption of these injections in different scenarios and at different dates. We focused on the surface air temperature (SAT anomalies induced by stratospheric sulphate aerosol generated in order to compensate future warming. Results show that continuous deployment of sulphur into the stratosphere could induce a lasting decrease in SAT. Retaining a constant aerosol loading equivalent to 6 TgS would delay the expected global warming by 53 years. Keeping the SAT constant in a context of increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs means that the aerosol loading needs to be increased by 1.9% annually. This would offset the effect of increasing GHG under the A1B scenario. A major focus of this study was on the heating rates of SAT that would arise in different scenarios in case of an abrupt cessation of sulphur injections into the stratosphere. Our model results show that heating rates after geoengineering interruption would be 15–28 times higher than in a case without geoengineering, with likely important consequences for life on Earth. Larger initial sulphate loadings induced more intense warming rates when the geoengineering was stopped at the same time. This implies that, if sulphate loading was increased to maintain constant SAT in the light of increasing GHG concentrations, the later the geoengineering interruption was to occur, the higher the heating rates would be. Consequently, geoengineering techniques like this should only be regarded as last-resort measures and require intense further research should they ever become necessary.

  16. Mercury in Nordic ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Munthe, John; Waengberg, Ingvar (IVL Swedish Environmental Research Inst., Stockholm (SE)); Rognerud, Sigurd; Fjeld, Eirik (Norwegian Inst. for Water Research (NIVA), Oslo (Norway)); Verta, Matti; Porvari, Petri (Finnish Environment Inst. (SYKE), Helsinki (Finland)); Meili, Markus (Inst. of Applied Environmental Research (ITM), Stockholm (Sweden))

    2007-12-15

    This report provides a first comprehensive compilation and assessment of available data on mercury in air, precipitation, sediments and fish in the Nordic countries. The main conclusion is that mercury levels in Nordic ecosystems continue to be affected by long-range atmospheric transport. The geographical patterns of mercury concentrations in both sediments and fish are also strongly affected by ecosystem characteristics and in some regions possibly by historical pollution. An evaluation of geographical variations in mercury concentrations in precipitation indicates that the influence from anthropogenic sources from Central European areas is still significant. The annual variability of deposition is large and dependant of precipitation amounts. An evaluation of data from stations around the North Sea has indicated a significant decrease in mercury concentrations in precipitation indicating a continuous decrease of emissions in Europe (Waengberg et al., 2007). For mercury in air (TGM), the geographical pattern is less pronounced indicating the influence of mercury emissions and distribution over a larger geographical area (i.e. hemispherical transport). Comparison of recent (surficial) and historical lake sediments show significantly elevated concentrations of mercury most likely caused by anthropogenic atmospheric deposition over the past century. The highest pollution impact was observed in the coastal areas of southern Norway, in south western Finland and in Sweden from the coastal areas in the southwest across the central parts to the north-east. The general increase in recent versus old sediments was 2-5 fold. Data on mercury in Nordic freshwater fish was assembled and evaluated with respect to geographical variations. The fish data were further compared with temporal and spatial trends in mercury deposition and mercury contamination of lake sediments in order to investigate the coupling between atmospheric transport and deposition of mercury and local mercury

  17. Appropriate experimental ecosystem warming methods by ecosystem, objective, and practicality

    Science.gov (United States)

    E.L. Aronson; S.G. McNulty

    2009-01-01

    The temperature of the Earth is rising, and is highly likely to continue to do so for the foreseeable future. The study of the effects of sustained heating on the ecosystems of the world is necessary so that wemight predict and respond to coming changes on both large and small spatial scales. To this end, ecosystem warming studies have...

  18. Radionuclides in forest ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strebl, F.; Bossew, P.; Kienzl, K.; Hiesel, E.

    2000-01-01

    Some regions within Austria were highly contaminated (> 50 kBq m -2 ) with radiocaesium by the deposition event following the Chernobyl reactor accident in 1986. Monitoring carried out by several Austrian institutions showed that in contrast to agricultural products radiocaesium levels in wild berries, mushrooms and game meat from forest ecosystems remained considerably higher over the years. To find reasons for this contrasting radioecological behavior and for the derivation of model input parameters, an extended study about the distribution of 137 Cs within three Austrian forest stands was carried out between 1987 and 1997. Results of this and subsequent studies are summarized and include the following ecosystem compartments: forest soils, litter, trees, bilberry, mushrooms, mosses, ferns, lichen, other vegetation, insects, small mammals, game animals and surface water. Besides the investigation of radioecological behavior an estimation of pool sizes and transfer rates as well as radioecological residence half times for 137 Cs in different forest species was used to compile a radiocaesium balance for the years 1988 and 1996. Soil proved to be an effective sink for radiocaesium contamination, but in long-term perspective it can act as a source for the contamination of vegetation and higher levels of the food-chain as well. Due to the high standing biomass trees represent the largest 'living' radiocaesium pool within the investigated forest stand. Dose estimations based on average consume habits gave no significant increase (less than 0.4 %) of the annual average population radiation dose due to the ingestion of forest products from the investigated forest stands. (author)

  19. Concurrent intraoperative uterine rupture and placenta accreta. Do preoperative chronic hypertension, preterm premature rupture of membranes, chorioamnionitis, and placental abruption provide warning to this rare occurrence?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cometa, M Anthony; Wasilko, Scott M; Wendling, Adam L

    2018-04-01

    Uterine and placental pathology can be a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the parturient and infant. When presenting alone, placental abruption, uterine rupture, or placenta accreta can result in significant peripartum hemorrhage, requiring aggressive surgical and anesthetic management; however, the presence of multiple concurrent uterine and placental pathologies can result in significant morbidity and mortality. We present the anesthetic management of a parturient who underwent an urgent cesarean delivery for non-reassuring fetal tracing in the setting of chronic hypertension, preterm premature rupture of membranes, and chorioamnionitis who was subsequently found to have placental abruption, uterine rupture, and placenta accreta.

  20. Understanding the mobile money ecosystem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tobbin, P.

    2011-01-01

    This paper discusses the structure of the new mobile money ecosystem and the roles of its key players. Mobile money is an evolving sector both in volume and in economic impact especially in the developing world. The paper is an exploratory study that investigates the structure of the ecosystem, p...

  1. Towards ecosystem-based management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tam, Jamie C.; Link, Jason S.; Rossberg, Axel G.; Rogers, Stuart I.; Levin, Philip S.; Rochet, Marie-Joelle; Bundy, Alida; Belgrano, Andrea; Libralato, Simone; Tomczak, Maciej; Wolfshaar, van de K.E.; Pranovi, Fabio; Gorokhova, Elena; Large, Scott I.; Niquil, Nathalie; Greenstreet, Simon P.R.; Druon, Jean-Noel; Lesutiene, Jurate; Johansen, Marie; Preciado, Izaskun; Patricio, Joana; Palialexis, Andreas; Tett, Paul; Johansen, Geir O.; Houle, Jennifer; Rindorf, Anna

    2017-01-01

    Modern approaches to Ecosystem-Based Management and sustainable use of marine resources must account for the myriad of pressures (interspecies, human and environmental) affecting marine ecosystems. The network of feeding interactions between co-existing species and populations (food webs) are an

  2. Ecology in Small Aquatic Ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Mikkel René

    Small ecosystems are many-fold more abundant than their larger counterparts. Both on regional and global scale small lakes outnumber medium and large lakes and account for a much larger surface area. Small streams are also far more common than rivers. Despite their abundance small ecosystems are ...

  3. Bottomland Hardwood Ecosystem Management Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    John A. Stanturf; Calvin E. Meier

    1994-01-01

    Federal agency approaches to land management are undergoing a shift from parcel-specific concerns toward a more holistic, ecosystem management approach. Southern bottomland hardwood ecosystems provide important environmental services and commodity goods (Wharton et al. 1982), yet much of our knowledge of these systems comes from anecdotal information. The Bottomland...

  4. Carbon allocation in forest ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creighton M. Litton; James W. Raich; Michael G. Ryan

    2007-01-01

    Carbon allocation plays a critical role in forest ecosystem carbon cycling. We reviewed existing literature and compiled annual carbon budgets for forest ecosystems to test a series of hypotheses addressing the patterns, plasticity, and limits of three components of allocation: biomass, the amount of material present; flux, the flow of carbon to a component per unit...

  5. Challenges in software ecosystems research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Serebrenik, A.; Mens, T.; Crnkovic, I.

    2015-01-01

    The paper is a meta-analysis of the research field of software ecosystems, by method of surveying 26 authors in the field. It presents a relevant list of literature and six themes in which challenges for software ecosystems can be grouped: Architecture and Design, Governance, Dynamics and Evolution,

  6. Forest Ecosystem services: Water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas P. Holmes; James Vose; Travis Warziniack; Bill Holman

    2017-01-01

    Since the publication of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA 2005), awareness has steadily grown regarding the importance of maintaining natural capital. Forest vegetation is a valuable source of natural capital, and the regulation of water quantity and quality is among the most important forest ecosystem services in many regions around the world. Changes in...

  7. An Indicator for ecosystem externalities in fishing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravn-Jonsen, Lars; Andersen, Ken Haste; Vestergaard, Niels

    Ecosystem externalities arise when one use of an ecosystem affects its other uses through the production functions of the ecosystem.We use simulations from a size-spectrum ecosystem model to investigate the ecosystem externality created by fishing of multiple species. The model is based upon...

  8. Ecosystem Services : In Nordic Freshwater Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Magnussen, Kristin; Hasler, Berit; Zandersen, Marianne

    Human wellbeing is dependent upon and benefit from ecosystem services which are delivered by well-functioning ecosystems. Ecosystem services can be mapped and assessed consistently within an ecosystem service framework. This project aims to explore the use and usefulness of the ecosystem service ...

  9. Complex effects of ecosystem engineer loss on benthic ecosystem response to detrital macroalgae

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rossi, F.; Gribsholt, B.; Gazeau, F.; Di Santo, V.; Middelburg, J.J.

    2013-01-01

    Ecosystem engineers change abiotic conditions, community assembly and ecosystem functioning. Consequently, their loss may modify thresholds of ecosystem response to disturbance and undermine ecosystem stability. This study investigates how loss of the bioturbating lugworm Arenicola marina modifies

  10. Complex Effects of Ecosystem Engineer Loss on Benthic Ecosystem Response to Detrital Macroalgae

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rossi, F.; Gribsholt, B.; Gazeau, F.; Di Santo, V.; Middelburg, J.J.

    2013-01-01

    Ecosystem engineers change abiotic conditions, community assembly and ecosystem functioning. Consequently, their loss may modify thresholds of ecosystem response to disturbance and undermine ecosystem stability. This study investigates how loss of the bioturbating lugworm Arenicola marina modifies

  11. Linking ecosystem characteristics to final ecosystem services for public policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Christina P; Jiang, Bo; Kinzig, Ann P; Lee, Kai N; Ouyang, Zhiyun

    2015-01-01

    Governments worldwide are recognising ecosystem services as an approach to address sustainability challenges. Decision-makers need credible and legitimate measurements of ecosystem services to evaluate decisions for trade-offs to make wise choices. Managers lack these measurements because of a data gap linking ecosystem characteristics to final ecosystem services. The dominant method to address the data gap is benefit transfer using ecological data from one location to estimate ecosystem services at other locations with similar land cover. However, benefit transfer is only valid once the data gap is adequately resolved. Disciplinary frames separating ecology from economics and policy have resulted in confusion on concepts and methods preventing progress on the data gap. In this study, we present a 10-step approach to unify concepts, methods and data from the disparate disciplines to offer guidance on overcoming the data gap. We suggest: (1) estimate ecosystem characteristics using biophysical models, (2) identify final ecosystem services using endpoints and (3) connect them using ecological production functions to quantify biophysical trade-offs. The guidance is strategic for public policy because analysts need to be: (1) realistic when setting priorities, (2) attentive to timelines to acquire relevant data, given resources and (3) responsive to the needs of decision-makers. PMID:25394857

  12. Linking ecosystem characteristics to final ecosystem services for public policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Christina P; Jiang, Bo; Kinzig, Ann P; Lee, Kai N; Ouyang, Zhiyun

    2015-01-01

    Governments worldwide are recognising ecosystem services as an approach to address sustainability challenges. Decision-makers need credible and legitimate measurements of ecosystem services to evaluate decisions for trade-offs to make wise choices. Managers lack these measurements because of a data gap linking ecosystem characteristics to final ecosystem services. The dominant method to address the data gap is benefit transfer using ecological data from one location to estimate ecosystem services at other locations with similar land cover. However, benefit transfer is only valid once the data gap is adequately resolved. Disciplinary frames separating ecology from economics and policy have resulted in confusion on concepts and methods preventing progress on the data gap. In this study, we present a 10-step approach to unify concepts, methods and data from the disparate disciplines to offer guidance on overcoming the data gap. We suggest: (1) estimate ecosystem characteristics using biophysical models, (2) identify final ecosystem services using endpoints and (3) connect them using ecological production functions to quantify biophysical trade-offs. The guidance is strategic for public policy because analysts need to be: (1) realistic when setting priorities, (2) attentive to timelines to acquire relevant data, given resources and (3) responsive to the needs of decision-makers. © 2014 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd and CNRS.

  13. Ecosystem Evapotranspiration as a Response to Climate and Vegetation Coverage Changes in Northwest Yunnan, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Hao; Luo, Peng; Wang, Jun; Mou, Chengxiang; Mo, Li; Wang, Zhiyuan; Fu, Yao; Lin, Honghui; Yang, Yongping; Bhatta, Laxmi Dutt

    2015-01-01

    Climate and human-driven changes play an important role in regional droughts. Northwest Yunnan Province is a key region for biodiversity conservation in China, and it has experienced severe droughts since the beginning of this century; however, the extent of the contributions from climate and human-driven changes remains unclear. We calculated the ecosystem evapotranspiration (ET) and water yield (WY) of northwest Yunnan Province, China from 2001 to 2013 using meteorological and remote sensing observation data and a Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) model. Multivariate regression analyses were used to differentiate the contribution of climate and vegetation coverage to ET. The results showed that the annual average vegetation coverage significantly increased over time with a mean of 0.69 in spite of the precipitation fluctuation. Afforestation/reforestation and other management efforts attributed to vegetation coverage increase in NW Yunnan. Both ET and WY considerably fluctuated with the climate factors, which ranged from 623.29 mm to 893.8 mm and -51.88 mm to 384.40 mm over the time period. Spatially, ET in the southeast of NW Yunnan (mainly in Lijiang) increased significantly, which was in line with the spatial trend of vegetation coverage. Multivariate linear regression analysis indicated that climatic factors accounted for 85.18% of the ET variation, while vegetation coverage explained 14.82%. On the other hand, precipitation accounted for 67.5% of the WY. We conclude that the continuous droughts in northwest Yunnan were primarily climatically driven; however, man-made land cover and vegetation changes also increased the vulnerability of local populations to drought. Because of the high proportion of the water yield consumed for subsistence and poor infrastructure for water management, local populations have been highly vulnerable to climate drought conditions. We suggest that conservation of native vegetation and development of water

  14. Water quality and ecosystem management: Data-driven reality check of effects in streams and lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Destouni, Georgia; Fischer, Ida; Prieto, Carmen

    2017-08-01

    This study investigates nutrient-related water quality conditions and change trends in the first management periods of the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD; since 2009) and Baltic Sea Action Plan (BASP; since 2007). With mitigation of nutrients in inland waters and their discharges to the Baltic Sea being a common WFD and BSAP target, we use Sweden as a case study of observable effects, by compiling and analyzing all openly available water and nutrient monitoring data across Sweden since 2003. The data compilation reveals that nutrient monitoring covers only around 1% (down to 0.2% for nutrient loads) of the total number of WFD-classified stream and lake water bodies in Sweden. The data analysis further shows that the hydro-climatically driven water discharge dominates the determination of waterborne loads of both total phosphorus and total nitrogen across Sweden. Both water discharge and the related nutrient loads are in turn well correlated with the ecosystem status classification of Swedish water bodies. Nutrient concentrations do not exhibit such correlation and their changes over the study period are on average small, but concentration increases are found for moderate-to-bad status waters, for which both the WFD and the BSAP have instead targeted concentration decreases. In general, these results indicate insufficient distinction and mitigation of human-driven nutrient components in inland waters and their discharges to the sea by the internationally harmonized applications of the WFD and the BSAP. The results call for further comparative investigations of observable large-scale effects of such regulatory/management frameworks in different parts of the world.

  15. Ecosystem Evapotranspiration as a Response to Climate and Vegetation Coverage Changes in Northwest Yunnan, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hao Yang

    Full Text Available Climate and human-driven changes play an important role in regional droughts. Northwest Yunnan Province is a key region for biodiversity conservation in China, and it has experienced severe droughts since the beginning of this century; however, the extent of the contributions from climate and human-driven changes remains unclear. We calculated the ecosystem evapotranspiration (ET and water yield (WY of northwest Yunnan Province, China from 2001 to 2013 using meteorological and remote sensing observation data and a Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS model. Multivariate regression analyses were used to differentiate the contribution of climate and vegetation coverage to ET. The results showed that the annual average vegetation coverage significantly increased over time with a mean of 0.69 in spite of the precipitation fluctuation. Afforestation/reforestation and other management efforts attributed to vegetation coverage increase in NW Yunnan. Both ET and WY considerably fluctuated with the climate factors, which ranged from 623.29 mm to 893.8 mm and -51.88 mm to 384.40 mm over the time period. Spatially, ET in the southeast of NW Yunnan (mainly in Lijiang increased significantly, which was in line with the spatial trend of vegetation coverage. Multivariate linear regression analysis indicated that climatic factors accounted for 85.18% of the ET variation, while vegetation coverage explained 14.82%. On the other hand, precipitation accounted for 67.5% of the WY. We conclude that the continuous droughts in northwest Yunnan were primarily climatically driven; however, man-made land cover and vegetation changes also increased the vulnerability of local populations to drought. Because of the high proportion of the water yield consumed for subsistence and poor infrastructure for water management, local populations have been highly vulnerable to climate drought conditions. We suggest that conservation of native vegetation and development of water

  16. Biodiversity, climate change, and ecosystem services

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Mooney, H

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available of ecosystems, deepen our understanding of the biological underpinnings for ecosystem service delivery and develop new tools and techniques for maintaining and restoring resilient biological and social systems. We will be building on an ecosystem foundation...

  17. Towards a consistent approach for ecosystem accounting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Edens, B.; Hein, L.G.

    2013-01-01

    In spite of an increasing interest in environmental economic accounting, there is still very limited experience with the integration of ecosystem services and ecosystem capital in national accounts. This paper identifies four key methodological challenges in developing ecosystem accounts: the

  18. Radionuclides in terrestrial ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Howard, B.J.; Kennedy, V.H.; Nelson, A.

    1983-06-01

    A bibliographical database has been developed to provide quick access to research and background literature in the field of radioecology. This is a development of an earlier database described by Nelson (Bocock 1981). ITE's particular fields of interest have led to a subject bias in the bibliography towards studies in Cumbria, especially those concerned with radionuclides originating from the reprocessing plant at Sellafield, and towards ecological research studies that are complementary to radionuclide studies. Other subjects covered, include the chemistry of radionuclides, budgets and transfers within ecosystems and techniques for the analysis of environmental samples. ITE's research objectives have led to the establishment of a specialized database which is intended to complement rather than compete with the large international databases made available by suppliers such as IRS-DIALTECH or DIALOG. Currently the database holds about 1900 references which are stored on a 2 1/2 megabyte hard disk on a Digital PDP11/34 computer operating under a time shared system. The references follow a standard format. (author)

  19. Simulations of the vortex in the Dellenback abrupt expansion, resembling a hydro turbine draft tube operating at part-load

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nilsson, H

    2012-01-01

    This work presents an OpenFOAM case-study, based on the experimental studies of the swirling flow in the abrupt expansion by Dellenback et al.[1]. The case yields similar flow conditions as those of a helical vortex rope in a hydro turbine draft tube working at part-load. The case-study is set up similar to the ERCOFTAC Conical Diffuser and Centrifugal Pump OpenFOAM case-studies [2,3], making all the files available and the results fully reproducable using OpenSource software. The mesh generation is done using m4 scripting and the OpenFOAM built-in blockMesh mesh generator. The swirling inlet boundary condition is specified as an axi-symmetric profile. The outlet boundary condition uses the zeroGradient condition for all variables except for the pressure, which uses the fixed mean value boundary condition. The wall static pressure is probed at a number of locations during the simulations, and post-processing of the time-averaged solution is done using the OpenFOAM sample utility. Gnuplot scripts are provided for plotting the results. The computational results are compared to one of the operating conditions studied by Dellenback, and measurements for all the experimentally studied operating conditions are available in the case-study. Results from five cases are here presented, based on the kEpsilon model, the kOmegaSST model, and a filtered version of the same kOmegaSST model, named kOmegaSSTF [4,5]. Two different inlet boundary conditions are evaluated. It is shown that kEpsilon and kOmegaSST give steady solutions, while kOmegaSSTF gives a highly unsteady solution. The time-averaged solution of the kOmegaSSTF model is much more accurate than the other models. The kEpsilon and kOmegaSST models are thus unable to accurately model the effect of the large-scale unsteadiness, while kOmegaSSTF resolves those scales and models only the smaller scales. The use of two different boundary conditions shows that the boundary conditions are more important than the choice between

  20. Ecosystem overfishing in the ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coll, Marta; Libralato, Simone; Tudela, Sergi; Palomera, Isabel; Pranovi, Fabio

    2008-01-01

    Fisheries catches represent a net export of mass and energy that can no longer be used by trophic levels higher than those fished. Thus, exploitation implies a depletion of secondary production of higher trophic levels (here the production of mass and energy by herbivores and carnivores in the ecosystem) due to the removal of prey. The depletion of secondary production due to the export of biomass and energy through catches was recently formulated as a proxy for evaluating the ecosystem impacts of fishing-i.e., the level of ecosystem overfishing. Here we evaluate the historical and current risk of ecosystem overfishing at a global scale by quantifying the depletion of secondary production using the best available fisheries and ecological data (i.e., catch and primary production). Our results highlight an increasing trend in the number of unsustainable fisheries (i.e., an increase in the risk of ecosystem overfishing) from the 1950s to the 2000s, and illustrate the worldwide geographic expansion of overfishing. These results enable to assess when and where fishing became unsustainable at the ecosystem level. At present, total catch per capita from Large Marine Ecosystems is at least twice the value estimated to ensure fishing at moderate sustainable levels.

  1. Ecosystems science: Genes to landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    2018-05-09

    Bountiful fisheries, healthy and resilient wildlife, flourishing forests and vibrant grasslands are coveted resources that benefit all Americans. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) science supports the conservation and management of the Nation’s fish and wildlife, and the landscapes they inhabit. Our biological resources—ecosystems and the wild things that live in them—are the foundation of our conservation heritage and an economic asset to current and future generations of Americans.The USGS Ecosystems Mission Area, the biological research arm of the Department of the Interior (DOI), provides science to help America achieve sustainable management and conservation of its biological resources. This work is done within the broader mission of the USGS—to serve the Nation with science that advances understanding of our natural resources, informs land and water stewardship, and helps safeguard communities from natural and environmental hazards. The Ecosystems Mission Area provides research, technical assistance, and education conducted by Cooperative Research Units and Science Centers located in nearly every State.The quality of life and economic strength in America hinges on healthy ecosystems that support living things and natural processes. Ecosystem science better enables society to understand how and why ecosystems change and to guide actions that can prevent damage to, and restore and sustain ecosystems. It is through this knowledge that informed decisions are made about natural resources that can enhance our Nation’s economic and environmental well-being.

  2. Physiological effects of simultaneous, abrupt seawater entry and sea lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis) infestation of wild, sea-run brown trout (Salmo trutta) smolts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wells, A.; Grierson, C.E.; MacKenzie, M.A.; Russon, I.; Middlemiss, C.; Bjorn, P.A.; Finstad, B.; Wendelaar Bonga, S.E.; Todd, C.D.; Hazon, N.

    2006-01-01

    For wild, sea-run brown trout (Salmo trutta) smolts, the physiological consequences of abrupt transfer to seawater and simultaneous challenge with copepodid larvae of the sea louse, Lepeophtheirus salmonis (Kr�yer, 1837), were investigated in the laboratory. Analysis of osmoregulatory, metabolic,

  3. Monitoring channel head erosion processes in response to an artificially induced abrupt base level change using time-lapse photography 2301

    Science.gov (United States)

    Headcut and channel extension in response to an abrupt base level change in 2004 of approximately 1m was studied in a 1.29 ha semiarid headwater drainage on the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW) in southeastern Arizona, USA. Field observations and time-lapse photography were coupled with hy...

  4. Early Heritage-Language Education and the Abrupt Shift to a Dominant-Language Classroom: Impact on the Personal and Collective Esteem of Inuit Children in Arctic Quebec

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bougie, Evelyne; Wright, Stephen C.; Taylor, Donald M.

    2003-01-01

    This research explored the impact of the abrupt shift from heritage-language to dominant-language education on Inuit children's personal and collective self-esteem. Specifically, the following question was addressed: will early heritage-language education serve as an inoculation against the potential negative impact of being submerged in a…

  5. Ecosystem services provided by bats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunz, Thomas H; Braun de Torrez, Elizabeth; Bauer, Dana; Lobova, Tatyana; Fleming, Theodore H

    2011-03-01

    Ecosystem services are the benefits obtained from the environment that increase human well-being. Economic valuation is conducted by measuring the human welfare gains or losses that result from changes in the provision of ecosystem services. Bats have long been postulated to play important roles in arthropod suppression, seed dispersal, and pollination; however, only recently have these ecosystem services begun to be thoroughly evaluated. Here, we review the available literature on the ecological and economic impact of ecosystem services provided by bats. We describe dietary preferences, foraging behaviors, adaptations, and phylogenetic histories of insectivorous, frugivorous, and nectarivorous bats worldwide in the context of their respective ecosystem services. For each trophic ensemble, we discuss the consequences of these ecological interactions on both natural and agricultural systems. Throughout this review, we highlight the research needed to fully determine the ecosystem services in question. Finally, we provide a comprehensive overview of economic valuation of ecosystem services. Unfortunately, few studies estimating the economic value of ecosystem services provided by bats have been conducted to date; however, we outline a framework that could be used in future studies to more fully address this question. Consumptive goods provided by bats, such as food and guano, are often exchanged in markets where the market price indicates an economic value. Nonmarket valuation methods can be used to estimate the economic value of nonconsumptive services, including inputs to agricultural production and recreational activities. Information on the ecological and economic value of ecosystem services provided by bats can be used to inform decisions regarding where and when to protect or restore bat populations and associated habitats, as well as to improve public perception of bats. © 2011 New York Academy of Sciences.

  6. Ecosystem Services: Benefits Supplied to Human Societies by Natural Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    The module provides a link to an article that is part of a series of articles in Issues in Ecology. This article discusses the many services an ecosystem provides in order to sustain and fulfill human needs.

  7. Climate-driven population divergence in sex-determining systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pen, Ido; Uller, Tobias; Feldmeyer, Barbara; Harts, Anna; While, Geoffrey M.; Wapstra, Erik

    2010-01-01

    Sex determination is a fundamental biological process, yet its mechanisms are remarkably diverse(1,2). In vertebrates, sex can be determined by inherited genetic factors or by the temperature experienced during embryonic development(2,3). However, the evolutionary causes of this diversity remain

  8. Climate-driven flushing of pore water in peatlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegel, D. I.; Reeve, A. S.; Glaser, P. H.; Romanowicz, E. A.

    1995-04-01

    NORTHERN peatlands can act as either important sources or sinks for atmospheric carbon1,2. It is therefore important to understand how carbon cycling in these regions will respond to a changing climate. Existing carbon balance models for peatlands assume that fluid flow and advective mass transport are negligible at depth3,4, and that the effects of climate change should be essentially limited to the near-surface. Here we report the response of groundwater flow and porewater chemistry in the Glacial Lake Agassiz peat-lands of northern Minnesota to the regional drought cycle. Comparison of field observations and numerical simulations indicates that climate fluctuations of short duration may temporarily reverse the vertical direction of fluid flow through the peat, although this has little effect on water chemistry5. On the other hand, periods of drought persisting for at least 3-5 years produce striking changes in the chemistry of the pore water. These longer-term changes in hydrology influence the flux of nutrients and dissolved organic matter through the deeper peat, and therefore affect directly the rates of fermentation and methanogenesis, and the export of dissolved carbon compounds from the peatland.

  9. Climate-driven seasonal geocenter motion during the GRACE period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hongyue; Sun, Yu

    2018-03-01

    Annual cycles in the geocenter motion time series are primarily driven by mass changes in the Earth's hydrologic system, which includes land hydrology, atmosphere, and oceans. Seasonal variations of the geocenter motion have been reliably determined according to Sun et al. (J Geophys Res Solid Earth 121(11):8352-8370, 2016) by combining the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) data with an ocean model output. In this study, we reconstructed the observed seasonal geocenter motion with geophysical model predictions of mass variations in the polar ice sheets, continental glaciers, terrestrial water storage (TWS), and atmosphere and dynamic ocean (AO). The reconstructed geocenter motion time series is shown to be in close agreement with the solution based on GRACE data supporting with an ocean bottom pressure model. Over 85% of the observed geocenter motion time series, variance can be explained by the reconstructed solution, which allows a further investigation of the driving mechanisms. We then demonstrated that AO component accounts for 54, 62, and 25% of the observed geocenter motion variances in the X, Y, and Z directions, respectively. The TWS component alone explains 42, 32, and 39% of the observed variances. The net mass changes over oceans together with self-attraction and loading effects also contribute significantly (about 30%) to the seasonal geocenter motion in the X and Z directions. Other contributing sources, on the other hand, have marginal (less than 10%) impact on the seasonal variations but introduce a linear trend in the time series.

  10. Climate-driven seasonal geocenter motion during the GRACE period

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhang, Hongyue; Sun, Y.

    2018-01-01

    Annual cycles in the geocenter motion time series are primarily driven by mass changes in the Earth’s hydrologic system, which includes land hydrology, atmosphere, and oceans. Seasonal variations of the geocenter motion have been reliably determined according to Sun et al. (J Geophys Res Solid

  11. A dynamic, climate-driven model of Rift Valley fever

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph Leedale

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF in eastern Africa have previously occurred following specific rainfall dynamics and flooding events that appear to support the emergence of large numbers of mosquito vectors. As such, transmission of the virus is considered to be sensitive to environmental conditions and therefore changes in climate can impact the spatiotemporal dynamics of epizootic vulnerability. Epidemiological information describing the methods and parameters of RVF transmission and its dependence on climatic factors are used to develop a new spatio-temporal mathematical model that simulates these dynamics and can predict the impact of changes in climate. The Liverpool RVF (LRVF model is a new dynamic, process-based model driven by climate data that provides a predictive output of geographical changes in RVF outbreak susceptibility as a result of the climate and local livestock immunity. This description of the multi-disciplinary process of model development is accessible to mathematicians, epidemiological modellers and climate scientists, uniting dynamic mathematical modelling, empirical parameterisation and state-of-the-art climate information.

  12. The mechanism of abrupt transition between theta and hyper-excitable spiking activity in medial entorhinal cortex layer II stellate cells.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tilman Kispersky

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Recent studies have shown that stellate cells (SCs of the medial entorhinal cortex become hyper-excitable in animal models of temporal lobe epilepsy. These studies have also demonstrated the existence of recurrent connections among SCs, reduced levels of recurrent inhibition in epileptic networks as compared to control ones, and comparable levels of recurrent excitation among SCs in both network types. In this work, we investigate the biophysical and dynamic mechanism of generation of the fast time scale corresponding to hyper-excitable firing and the transition between theta and fast firing frequency activity in SCs. We show that recurrently connected minimal networks of SCs exhibit abrupt, threshold-like transition between theta and hyper-excitable firing frequencies as the result of small changes in the maximal synaptic (AMPAergic conductance. The threshold required for this transition is modulated by synaptic inhibition. Similar abrupt transition between firing frequency regimes can be observed in single, self-coupled SCs, which represent a network of recurrently coupled neurons synchronized in phase, but not in synaptically isolated SCs as the result of changes in the levels of the tonic drive. Using dynamical systems tools (phase-space analysis, we explain the dynamic mechanism underlying the genesis of the fast time scale and the abrupt transition between firing frequency regimes, their dependence on the intrinsic SC's currents and synaptic excitation. This abrupt transition is mechanistically different from others observed in similar networks with different cell types. Most notably, there is no bistability involved. 'In vitro' experiments using single SCs self-coupled with dynamic clamp show the abrupt transition between firing frequency regimes, and demonstrate that our theoretical predictions are not an artifact of the model. In addition, these experiments show that high-frequency firing is burst-like with a duration modulated by an M-current.

  13. An abrupt centennial-scale drought event and mid-holocene climate change patterns in monsoon marginal zones of East Asia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Li

    Full Text Available The mid-latitudes of East Asia are characterized by the interaction between the Asian summer monsoon and the westerly winds. Understanding long-term climate change in the marginal regions of the Asian monsoon is critical for understanding the millennial-scale interactions between the Asian monsoon and the westerly winds. Abrupt climate events are always associated with changes in large-scale circulation patterns; therefore, investigations into abrupt climate changes provide clues for responses of circulation patterns to extreme climate events. In this paper, we examined the time scale and mid-Holocene climatic background of an abrupt dry mid-Holocene event in the Shiyang River drainage basin in the northwest margin of the Asian monsoon. Mid-Holocene lacustrine records were collected from the middle reaches and the terminal lake of the basin. Using radiocarbon and OSL ages, a centennial-scale drought event, which is characterized by a sand layer in lacustrine sediments both from the middle and lower reaches of the basin, was absolutely dated between 8.0-7.0 cal kyr BP. Grain size data suggest an abrupt decline in lake level and a dry environment in the middle reaches of the basin during the dry interval. Previous studies have shown mid-Holocene drought events in other places of monsoon marginal zones; however, their chronologies are not strong enough to study the mechanism. According to the absolutely dated records, we proposed a new hypothesis that the mid-Holocene dry interval can be related to the weakening Asian summer monsoon and the relatively arid environment in arid Central Asia. Furthermore, abrupt dry climatic events are directly linked to the basin-wide effective moisture change in semi-arid and arid regions. Effective moisture is affected by basin-wide precipitation, evapotranspiration, lake surface evaporation and other geographical settings. As a result, the time scales of the dry interval could vary according to locations due to

  14. Population age and initial density in a patchy environment affect the occurrence of abrupt transitions in a birth-and-death model of Taylor's law

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Jiang; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Zhang, B.; Cohen, J.E.

    2014-01-01

    Taylor's power law describes an empirical relationship between the mean and variance of population densities in field data, in which the variance varies as a power, b, of the mean. Most studies report values of b varying between 1 and 2. However, Cohen (2014a) showed recently that smooth changes in environmental conditions in a model can lead to an abrupt, infinite change in b. To understand what factors can influence the occurrence of an abrupt change in b, we used both mathematical analysis and Monte Carlo samples from a model in which populations of the same species settled on patches, and each population followed independently a stochastic linear birth-and-death process. We investigated how the power relationship responds to a smooth change of population growth rate, under different sampling strategies, initial population density, and population age. We showed analytically that, if the initial populations differ only in density, and samples are taken from all patches after the same time period following a major invasion event, Taylor's law holds with exponent b=1, regardless of the population growth rate. If samples are taken at different times from patches that have the same initial population densities, we calculate an abrupt shift of b, as predicted by Cohen (2014a). The loss of linearity between log variance and log mean is a leading indicator of the abrupt shift. If both initial population densities and population ages vary among patches, estimates of b lie between 1 and 2, as in most empirical studies. But the value of b declines to ~1 as the system approaches a critical point. Our results can inform empirical studies that might be designed to demonstrate an abrupt shift in Taylor's law.

  15. Population-based estimate of sibling risk for preterm birth, preterm premature rupture of membranes, placental abruption and pre-eclampsia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plunkett, Jevon; Borecki, Ingrid; Morgan, Thomas; Stamilio, David; Muglia, Louis J

    2008-07-08

    Adverse pregnancy outcomes, such as preterm birth, preeclampsia and placental abruption, are common, with acute and long-term complications for both the mother and infant. Etiologies underlying such adverse outcomes are not well understood. As maternal and fetal genetic factors may influence these outcomes, we estimated the magnitude of familial aggregation as one index of possible heritable contributions. Using the Missouri Department of Health's maternally-linked birth certificate database, we performed a retrospective population-based cohort study of births (1989-1997), designating an individual born from an affected pregnancy as the proband for each outcome studied. We estimated the increased risk to siblings compared to the population risk, using the sibling risk ratio, lambdas, and sibling-sibling odds ratio (sib-sib OR), for the adverse pregnancy outcomes of preterm birth, preterm premature rupture of membranes (PPROM), placental abruption, and pre-eclampsia. Risk to siblings of an affected individual was elevated above the population prevalence of a given disorder, as indicated by lambdaS (lambdaS (95% CI): 4.3 (4.0-4.6), 8.2 (6.5-9.9), 4.0 (2.6-5.3), and 4.5 (4.4-4.8), for preterm birth, PPROM, placental abruption, and pre-eclampsia, respectively). Risk to siblings of an affected individual was similarly elevated above that of siblings of unaffected individuals, as indicated by the sib-sib OR (sib-sib OR adjusted for known risk factors (95% CI): 4.2 (3.9-4.5), 9.6 (7.6-12.2), 3.8 (2.6-5.5), 8.1 (7.5-8.8) for preterm birth, PPROM, placental abruption, and pre-eclampsia, respectively). These results suggest that the adverse pregnancy outcomes of preterm birth, PPROM, placental abruption, and pre-eclampsia aggregate in families, which may be explained in part by genetics.

  16. Abrupt symmetry decrease in the ThT2Al20 alloys (T = 3d transition metal)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uziel, A.; Bram, A.I.; Venkert, A.; Kiv, A.E.; Fuks, D.; Meshi, L.

    2015-01-01

    Th-T-Al system, where T-3d transition metals, was studied at ThT 2 Al 20 stoichiometry to establish the influence of T on the structural stability of ternary aluminide formed. Different alloys were prepared, varying T in the row from Ti to Fe. Using electron microscopy and X-ray diffraction methods it was found that ThT 2 Al 20 phase adopts CeCr 2 Al 20 structure type when T = Ti, V, and Cr. Starting from Mn, the symmetry of the stable Al-rich phase, which forms in the alloys with the same composition, decreases from cubic to orthorhombic. The results of Density Functional Theory (DFT) calculations coincide with experiments. Concepts of the Theory of Coordination Compounds and Jahn–Teller effect were used to explain the observed abrupt change of the symmetry. These considerations were supported by DFT calculations. - Highlights: • Type of transition metal influences symmetry change in the ThT 2 Al 20 alloys. • It was found that cubic ThT 2 Al 20 phase is stable for T = Ti, V and Cr. • When T = Mn, Fe–Al + orthorhombic ThT 2 Al 10 are formed, lowering the symmetry. • Experimental results and DFT calculations were in full agreement. • TCC and of Jahn–Teller effect were used for explanation of the results

  17. Numerical simulation of heat transfer to separation tio2/water nanofluids flow in an asymmetric abrupt expansion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oon Cheen Sean

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Flow separation and reattachment of 0.2% TiO2 nanofluid in an asymmetric abrupt expansion is studied in this paper. Such flows occur in various engineering and heat transfer applications. Computational fluid dynamics package (FLUENT is used to investigate turbulent nanofluid flow in the horizontal double-tube heat exchanger. The meshing of this model consists of 43383 nodes and 74891 elements. Only a quarter of the annular pipe is developed and simulated as it has symmetrical geometry. Standard k-epsilon second order implicit, pressure based-solver equation is applied. Reynolds numbers between 17050 and 44545, step height ratio of 1 and 1.82 and constant heat flux of 49050 W/m2 was utilized in the simulation. Water was used as a working fluid to benchmark the study of the heat transfer enhancement in this case. Numerical simulation results show that the increase in the Reynolds number increases the heat transfer coefficient and Nusselt number of the flowing fluid. Moreover, the surface temperature will drop to its lowest value after the expansion and then gradually increase along the pipe. Finally, the chaotic movement and higher thermal conductivity of the TiO2 nanoparticles have contributed to the overall heat transfer enhancement of the nanofluid compare to the water.

  18. Abrupt onset of mutations in a developmentally regulated gene during terminal differentiation of post-mitotic photoreceptor neurons in mice.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivette M Sandoval

    Full Text Available For sensitive detection of rare gene repair events in terminally differentiated photoreceptors, we generated a knockin mouse model by replacing one mouse rhodopsin allele with a form of the human rhodopsin gene that causes a severe, early-onset form of retinitis pigmentosa. The human gene contains a premature stop codon at position 344 (Q344X, cDNA encoding the enhanced green fluorescent protein (EGFP at its 3' end, and a modified 5' untranslated region to reduce translation rate so that the mutant protein does not induce retinal degeneration. Mutations that eliminate the stop codon express a human rhodopsin-EGFP fusion protein (hRho-GFP, which can be readily detected by fluorescence microscopy. Spontaneous mutations were observed at a frequency of about one per retina; in every case, they gave rise to single fluorescent rod cells, indicating that each mutation occurred during or after the last mitotic division. Additionally, the number of fluorescent rods did not increase with age, suggesting that the rhodopsin gene in mature rod cells is less sensitive to mutation than it is in developing rods. Thus, there is a brief developmental window, coinciding with the transcriptional activation of the rhodopsin locus, in which somatic mutations of the rhodopsin gene abruptly begin to appear.

  19. From drought to flooding: understanding the abrupt 2010-11 hydrological annual cycle in the Amazonas River and tributaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlo Espinoza, Jhan; Ronchail, Josyane; Loup Guyot, Jean; Junquas, Clementine; Drapeau, Guillaume; Martinez, Jean Michel; Santini, William; Vauchel, Philippe; Lavado, Waldo; Ordoñez, Julio; Espinoza, Raúl

    2012-06-01

    In this work we document and analyze the hydrological annual cycles characterized by a rapid transition between low and high flows in the Amazonas River (Peruvian Amazon) and we show how these events, which may impact vulnerable riverside residents, are related to regional climate variability. Our analysis is based on comprehensive discharge, rainfall and average suspended sediment data sets. Particular attention is paid to the 2010-11 hydrological year, when an unprecedented abrupt transition from the extreme September 2010 drought (8300 m3 s-1) to one of the four highest discharges in April 2011 (49 500 m3 s-1) was recorded at Tamshiyacu (Amazonas River). This unusual transition is also observed in average suspended sediments. Years with a rapid increase in discharge are characterized by negative sea surface temperature anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific during austral summer, corresponding to a La Niña-like mode. It originates a geopotential height wave train over the subtropical South Pacific and southeastern South America, with a negative anomaly along the southern Amazon and the southeastern South Atlantic convergence zone region. As a consequence, the monsoon flux is retained over the Amazon and a strong convergence of humidity occurs in the Peruvian Amazon basin, favoring high rainfall and discharge. These features are also reported during the 2010-11 austral summer, when an intense La Niña event characterized the equatorial Pacific.

  20. Abrupt symmetry decrease in the ThT{sub 2}Al{sub 20} alloys (T = 3d transition metal)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Uziel, A.; Bram, A.I. [Department of Materials Engineering, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer-Sheva, 8410501 (Israel); Ilse Katz Institute for Nanoscale Science and Technology, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer-Sheva, 8410501 (Israel); Venkert, A. [Nuclear Research Center-Negev, POB 9001, Beer-Sheva (Israel); Kiv, A.E.; Fuks, D. [Department of Materials Engineering, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer-Sheva, 8410501 (Israel); Meshi, L., E-mail: louisa@bgu.ac.il [Department of Materials Engineering, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer-Sheva, 8410501 (Israel); Ilse Katz Institute for Nanoscale Science and Technology, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer-Sheva, 8410501 (Israel)

    2015-11-05

    Th-T-Al system, where T-3d transition metals, was studied at ThT{sub 2}Al{sub 20} stoichiometry to establish the influence of T on the structural stability of ternary aluminide formed. Different alloys were prepared, varying T in the row from Ti to Fe. Using electron microscopy and X-ray diffraction methods it was found that ThT{sub 2}Al{sub 20} phase adopts CeCr{sub 2}Al{sub 20} structure type when T = Ti, V, and Cr. Starting from Mn, the symmetry of the stable Al-rich phase, which forms in the alloys with the same composition, decreases from cubic to orthorhombic. The results of Density Functional Theory (DFT) calculations coincide with experiments. Concepts of the Theory of Coordination Compounds and Jahn–Teller effect were used to explain the observed abrupt change of the symmetry. These considerations were supported by DFT calculations. - Highlights: • Type of transition metal influences symmetry change in the ThT{sub 2}Al{sub 20} alloys. • It was found that cubic ThT{sub 2}Al{sub 20} phase is stable for T = Ti, V and Cr. • When T = Mn, Fe–Al + orthorhombic ThT{sub 2}Al{sub 10} are formed, lowering the symmetry. • Experimental results and DFT calculations were in full agreement. • TCC and of Jahn–Teller effect were used for explanation of the results.

  1. From drought to flooding: understanding the abrupt 2010–11 hydrological annual cycle in the Amazonas River and tributaries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Espinoza, Jhan Carlo; Ronchail, Josyane; Drapeau, Guillaume; Guyot, Jean Loup; Martinez, Jean Michel; Santini, William; Vauchel, Philippe; Espinoza, Raúl; Junquas, Clementine; Lavado, Waldo; Ordoñez, Julio

    2012-01-01

    In this work we document and analyze the hydrological annual cycles characterized by a rapid transition between low and high flows in the Amazonas River (Peruvian Amazon) and we show how these events, which may impact vulnerable riverside residents, are related to regional climate variability. Our analysis is based on comprehensive discharge, rainfall and average suspended sediment data sets. Particular attention is paid to the 2010–11 hydrological year, when an unprecedented abrupt transition from the extreme September 2010 drought (8300 m 3 s −1 ) to one of the four highest discharges in April 2011 (49 500 m 3 s −1 ) was recorded at Tamshiyacu (Amazonas River). This unusual transition is also observed in average suspended sediments. Years with a rapid increase in discharge are characterized by negative sea surface temperature anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific during austral summer, corresponding to a La Niña-like mode. It originates a geopotential height wave train over the subtropical South Pacific and southeastern South America, with a negative anomaly along the southern Amazon and the southeastern South Atlantic convergence zone region. As a consequence, the monsoon flux is retained over the Amazon and a strong convergence of humidity occurs in the Peruvian Amazon basin, favoring high rainfall and discharge. These features are also reported during the 2010–11 austral summer, when an intense La Niña event characterized the equatorial Pacific. (letter)

  2. Acoustic detection of momentum transfer during the abrupt transition from a laminar to a turbulent atmospheric boundary layer1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schubert, J.F.

    1977-01-01

    Acoustic sounder measurements of a vertical profile of the abrupt transition from a laminar to a turbulent atmospheric boundary layer were compared with meteorological measurements made at 10 and 137 m on an instrumented tower. Sounder data show that conditions necessary for the onset of the momentum burst phenomenon exist sometime during a clear afternoon when heat flux changes sign and the planetary surface cools. Under these conditions, the lowest part of the atmospheric boundary layer becomes stable. Prior to this situation, the entire boundary layer is in turbulent motion from surface heating. The boundary layer is then an effective barrier for all fluxes, and as the maximum flux Richardson number is reached at some height close to but above the surface, turbulence is dampened and a laminar layer forms. The profile of this layer is recorded by the sounder. Surface temperature drops, a strong wind shear develops, and the Richardson number decreases below its critical value (Ri/sub cr/<0.25). Subsequently, the laminar layer is eroded by turbulence from above, and with a burst of momentum and heat, it eventually reaches the ground

  3. Determinants of the competing outcomes of intrauterine infection, abruption, or spontaneous preterm birth after preterm premature rupture of membranes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hackney, David N; Kuo, Kelly; Petersen, Rebecca J; Lappen, Justin R

    2016-01-01

    Patients with PPROM are at risk for a variety of outcomes, including chorioamnionitis (CA), placental abruption (PA), or preterm labor (PTL). Competing risk regression can analyze a cohort's risk of individual outcomes while accounting for ongoing deliveries secondary to competing events. A secondary analysis of the subjects from MFMU BEAM study of neuroprotection after preterm birth (BEAM) with conservative PPROM management. Deliveries were categorized as: PA, CA, PTL, "elective" or "indicated". The association between outcomes of PA, CA or PTL and clinical predictors of twins, ethnicity, parity, gestational age at rupture, bleeding, contractions, cervical dilation, preterm birth history, weight, and genitourinary infections were evaluated via competing risk regression. 1970 subjects were included. The significance and directionality of predictors varied according to specific outcomes. Patients with twins had an increased PTL hazard (1.85) though reductions in CA- (0.66) or PA-specific (0.56) hazards. Decreased latency in African-Americans was almost entirely due to an increased CA hazard (1.44) without a significant association with PTL. Increasing gestational age at membrane rupture was associated with a decreasing hazard of CA although increasing hazard of PTL. For patients with PPROM, the hazards associated with different clinical predictors vary according to exact outcomes.

  4. Ribosomal dimerization factor YfiA is the major protein synthesized after abrupt glucose depletion in Lactococcus lactis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breüner, Anne; Frees, Dorte; Varmanen, Pekka; Boguta, Anna Monika; Hammer, Karin; Martinussen, Jan; Kilstrup, Mogens

    2016-10-01

    We analysed the response of the model bacterium Lactococcus lactis to abrupt depletion of glucose after several generations of exponential growth. Glucose depletion resulted in a drastic drop in the energy charge accompanied by an extremely low GTP level and an almost total arrest of protein synthesis. Strikingly, the cell prioritized the continued synthesis of a few proteins, of which the ribosomal dimerization factor YfiA was the most highly expressed. Transcriptome analysis showed no immediate decrease in total mRNA levels despite the lowered nucleotide pools and only marginally increased levels of the yfiA transcript. Severe up-regulation of genes in the FruR, CcpA, ArgR and AhrC regulons were consistent with a downshift in carbon and energy source. Based upon the results, we suggest that transcription proceeded long enough to record the transcriptome changes from activation of the FruR, CcpA, ArgR and AhrC regulons, while protein synthesis stopped due to an extremely low GTP concentration emerging a few minutes after glucose depletion. The yfiA deletion mutant exhibited a longer lag phase upon replenishment of glucose and a faster death rate after prolonged starvation supporting that YfiA-mediated ribosomal dimerization is important for keeping long-term starved cells viable and competent for growth initiation.

  5. A sensitivity-enhanced refractive index sensor using a single-mode thin-core fiber incorporating an abrupt taper.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Jie; Xiao, Shilin; Yi, Lilin; Bi, Meihua

    2012-01-01

    A sensitivity-enhanced fiber-optic refractive index (RI) sensor based on a tapered single-mode thin-core diameter fiber is proposed and experimentally demonstrated. The sensor head is formed by splicing a section of tapered thin-core diameter fiber (TCF) between two sections of single-mode fibers (SMFs). The cladding modes are excited at the first SMF-TCF interface, and then interfere with the core mode at the second interface, thus forming an inter-modal interferometer (IMI). An abrupt taper (tens of micrometers long) made by the electric-arc-heating method is utilized, and plays an important role in improving sensing sensitivity. The whole manufacture process only involves fiber splicing and tapering, and all the fabrication process can be achieved by a commercial fiber fusion splicer. Using glycerol and water mixture solution as an example, the experimental results show that the refractive index sensitivity is measured to be 0.591 nm for 1% change of surrounding RI. The proposed sensor structure features simple structure, low cost, easy fabrication, and high sensitivity.

  6. A Sensitivity-Enhanced Refractive Index Sensor Using a Single-Mode Thin-Core Fiber Incorporating an Abrupt Taper

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Shi

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available A sensitivity-enhanced fiber-optic refractive index (RI sensor based on a tapered single-mode thin-core diameter fiber is proposed and experimentally demonstrated. The sensor head is formed by splicing a section of tapered thin-core diameter fiber (TCF between two sections of single-mode fibers (SMFs. The cladding modes are excited at the first SMF-TCF interface, and then interfere with the core mode at the second interface, thus forming an inter-modal interferometer (IMI. An abrupt taper (tens of micrometers long made by the electric-arc-heating method is utilized, and plays an important role in improving sensing sensitivity. The whole manufacture process only involves fiber splicing and tapering, and all the fabrication process can be achieved by a commercial fiber fusion splicer. Using glycerol and water mixture solution as an example, the experimental results show that the refractive index sensitivity is measured to be 0.591 nm for 1% change of surrounding RI. The proposed sensor structure features simple structure, low cost, easy fabrication, and high sensitivity.

  7. Puako Ecosystem Model Output Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Coral reefs provide a wide range of ecosystem services that are valued differently by different users. Managers are challenged to comprehensively address the full...

  8. Soil-based ecosystem services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ghaley, Bhim Bahadur; Porter, John Roy; Sandhu, Harpinder S.

    2014-01-01

    Among the soil-based ecosystem services (ES), nutrient cycling and carbon sequestration have direct influence on the biogeochemical cycles and greenhouse gas emissions affecting provision of other ES that support human existence. We reviewed methods to assess the two key ES by identifying...... their strengths and weaknesses and have made suggestions for using appropriate methods for better understanding of the ecosystem functions for the provision of ES. Relevant papers for the review were chosen on the basis of (i) diversity of studies on the two key ES in different ecosystems, (ii) methodologies...... applied and (iii) detailed descriptions of the trial locations in terms of vegetation, soil type, location and climatic information. We concluded that (i) elemental stoichiometrical ratios could be a potential approach to assess the health of ecosystems in terms of provision of the two ES discussed, (ii...

  9. Mineral nutrients in mediterranean ecosystems

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Day, JA

    1983-06-01

    Full Text Available The notion of ecological convergence has influenced taxonomists and biogeographers since the development of ecology in the mid-nineteenth century. Our initial understanding of the ecosystems of the world resulted from plant geographers...

  10. Ecosystem overfishing in the ocean

    OpenAIRE

    Coll, M; Libralato, S; Tutela, S; Palomera, I; Pranovi, F.

    2008-01-01

    Fisheries catches represent a net export of mass and energy that can no longer be used by trophic levels higher than those fished. Thus, exploitation implies a depletion of secondary production of higher trophic levels (here the production of mass and energy by herbivores and carnivores in the ecosystem) due to the removal of prey. The depletion of secondary production due to the export of biomass and energy through catches was recently formulated as a proxy for evaluating the ecosystem impac...

  11. nitrogen saturation in stream ecosystems

    OpenAIRE

    Earl, S. R.; Valett, H. M.; Webster, J. R.

    2006-01-01

    The concept of nitrogen (N) saturation has organized the assessment of N loading in terrestrial ecosystems. Here we extend the concept to lotic ecosystems by coupling Michaelis-Menten kinetics and nutrient spiraling. We propose a series of saturation response types, which may be used to characterize the proximity of streams to N saturation. We conducted a series of short-term N releases using a tracer ((NO3)-N-15-N) to measure uptake. Experiments were conducted in streams spanning a gradient ...

  12. Cycling indices for ecosystem models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carney, J.H.; Gardner, R.H.; Mankin, J.B.; DeAngelis, D.L.

    1979-01-01

    The study of ecosystems is aided by representing structural and functional groups of organisms or processes as discrete components. A complex compartment model will explicitly map pathways from one compartment to another and specify transfer rates. This quantitative description allows insight into the dynamics of flow of nutrients, toxic chemicals, radionuclides, or energy. Three new indices that calculate compartment-specific probabilities of occurrence and recycling and illustrate the problem of applying these indices to ecosystem models are presented

  13. Interaction webs in arctic ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Niels Martin; Hardwick, Bess; Gilg, Olivier

    2017-01-01

    How species interact modulate their dynamics, their response to environmental change, and ultimately the functioning and stability of entire communities. Work conducted at Zackenberg, Northeast Greenland, has changed our view on how networks of arctic biotic interactions are structured, how they ...... that the combination of long-term, ecosystem-based monitoring, and targeted research projects offers the most fruitful basis for understanding and predicting the future of arctic ecosystems....

  14. Flow Encountering Abrupt Topography

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-30

    Colin at the Coral Reef Research Foundation and Paul Collins, who has extensive experience with such data). Helen Reef Concerted UCTD measurements...sensors, weights , 45 m of line, and a float) which were arrayed around Helen Reef nominally on the 90-m isobath using Revelle’s workboat. Colin (CRRF...the main islands of Palau and diverts around the south and north ends of the island group (Figure 1, left and right; Section ). At Helen Reef and Toby

  15. Pregnancy Complications: Placental Abruption

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... at risk? Zika virus and pregnancy Folic acid Medicine safety and pregnancy Birth defects prevention Learn how to help reduce ... high blood pressure, not smoking or using street drugs, and always wearing a seatbelt when riding in a car. ... complications Preterm labor & premature birth The newborn intensive ...

  16. Defining Ecosystem Assets for Natural Capital Accounting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hein, Lars; Bagstad, Ken; Edens, Bram; Obst, Carl; de Jong, Rixt; Lesschen, Jan Peter

    2016-01-01

    In natural capital accounting, ecosystems are assets that provide ecosystem services to people. Assets can be measured using both physical and monetary units. In the international System of Environmental-Economic Accounting, ecosystem assets are generally valued on the basis of the net present value of the expected flow of ecosystem services. In this paper we argue that several additional conceptualisations of ecosystem assets are needed to understand ecosystems as assets, in support of ecosystem assessments, ecosystem accounting and ecosystem management. In particular, we define ecosystems' capacity and capability to supply ecosystem services, as well as the potential supply of ecosystem services. Capacity relates to sustainable use levels of multiple ecosystem services, capability involves prioritising the use of one ecosystem service over a basket of services, and potential supply considers the ability of ecosystems to generate services regardless of demand for these services. We ground our definitions in the ecosystem services and accounting literature, and illustrate and compare the concepts of flow, capacity, capability, and potential supply with a range of conceptual and real-world examples drawn from case studies in Europe and North America. Our paper contributes to the development of measurement frameworks for natural capital to support environmental accounting and other assessment frameworks.

  17. Socio-hydrologic Modeling to Understand and Mediate the Competition for Water between Humans and Ecosystems: Murrumbidgee River Basin, Australia (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivapalan, M.

    2013-12-01

    Competition for water between humans and ecosystems is set to become a flash point in coming decades in all parts of the world. An entirely new and comprehensive quantitative framework is needed to establish a holistic understanding of that competition, thereby enabling development of effective mediation strategies. This paper presents a case study centered on the Murrumbidgee river basin in eastern Australia that illustrates the dynamics of the balance between water extraction and use for food production and efforts to mitigate and reverse consequent degradation of the riparian environment. Interactions between patterns of water management and climate driven hydrological variability within the prevailing socio-economic environment have contributed to the emergence of new whole system dynamics over the last 100 years. In particular, data analysis reveals a pendulum swing between an exclusive focus on agricultural development and food production in the initial stages of water resource development and its attendant socio-economic benefits, followed by the gradual realization of the adverse environmental impacts, efforts to mitigate these with the use of remedial measures, and ultimately concerted efforts and externally imposed solutions to restore environmental health and ecosystem services. A quasi-distributed coupled socio-hydrologic system model that explicitly includes the two-way coupling between human and hydrological systems, including evolution of human values/norms relating to water and the environment, is able to mimic broad features of this pendulum swing. The model consists of coupled nonlinear differential equations that include four state variables describing the co-evolution of storage capacity, irrigated area, human population, and ecosystem health. The model is used to generate insights into the dominant controls of the trajectory of co-evolution of the coupled human-water system, to serve as the theoretical framework for more detailed analysis of

  18. Why Is There an Abrupt Transition from Solid Rock to Low Crystallinity Magma in Drilled Magma Bodies?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eichelberger, J. C.; Carrigan, C. R.; Sun, Y.; Lavallée, Y.

    2017-12-01

    We report on a preliminary evaluation, from basic principles of heat and mass transfer, on the unexpectedly abrupt transition from cuttings of solid rock to fragments of crystal poor glass during drilling into magma bodies. Our analysis is based on conditions determined and inferred for the 2009 IDDP-1 well in Krafla Caldera, which entered apparently liquidus rhyolite magma at about 900oC at a depth of 2104 m. Simple conduction would predict some 30 m of crystallization and partial crystallization since the latest time the magma could have been intruded, approximately 30 years prior to discovery by drilling. Option 1: The expected crystallization of magma has occurred but interstitial melt remains. The pressure difference between lithostatic load of about 50 MPa on the mush and 20 MPa hydrostatic pressure in the well causes pore melt to flow from the permeable mush into the borehole, where it becomes the source of the quenched melt chips. To be viable, this mechanism must work over the time frame of a day. Option 2: The expected crystallization is occurring, but high Rayleigh number thermal convection in the magma chamber continuously displaces crystallizing roof magma by liquidus magma from the interior of the body. To be viable, this mechanism must result in overturning magma in the chamber on a time scale that is much shorter than that of crystallization. Option 3: Flow-induced crystal migration away from zones of high shear created during drilling into magma may preferentially produce low-crystal-content melt at the boundary of the borehole, which is then sampled.

  19. Game-Changing Innovations: How Culture Can Change the Parameters of Its Own Evolution and Induce Abrupt Cultural Shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    One of the most puzzling features of the prehistoric record of hominid stone tools is its apparent punctuation: it consists of abrupt bursts of dramatic change that separate long periods of largely unchanging technology. Within each such period, small punctuated cultural modifications take place. Punctuation on multiple timescales and magnitudes is also found in cultural trajectories from historical times. To explain these sharp cultural bursts, researchers invoke such external factors as sudden environmental change, rapid cognitive or morphological change in the hominids that created the tools, or replacement of one species or population by another. Here we propose a dynamic model of cultural evolution that accommodates empirical observations: without invoking external factors, it gives rise to a pattern of rare, dramatic cultural bursts, interspersed by more frequent, smaller, punctuated cultural modifications. Our model includes interdependent innovation processes that occur at different rates. It also incorporates a realistic aspect of cultural evolution: cultural innovations, such as those that increase food availability or that affect cultural transmission, can change the parameters that affect cultural evolution, thereby altering the population’s cultural dynamics and steady state. This steady state can be regarded as a cultural carrying capacity. These parameter-changing cultural innovations occur very rarely, but whenever one occurs, it triggers a dramatic shift towards a new cultural steady state. The smaller and more frequent punctuated cultural changes, on the other hand, are brought about by innovations that spur the invention of further, related, technology, and which occur regardless of whether the population is near its cultural steady state. Our model suggests that common interpretations of cultural shifts as evidence of biological change, for example the appearance of behaviorally modern humans, may be unwarranted. PMID:28036346

  20. The glacial inception as recorded in the NorthGRIP Greenland ice core: timing, structure and associated abrupt temperature changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Landais, Amaelle [UMR CEA-CNRS, CEA Saclay, IPSL/Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement, Gif-sur -Yvette (France); Hebrew University, Institute of Earth Sciences, Givat Ram, Jerusalem (Israel); Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Jouzel, Jean; Minster, Benedicte [UMR CEA-CNRS, CEA Saclay, IPSL/Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement, Gif-sur -Yvette (France); Raynaud, Dominique [LGGE, UMR CNRS-UJF, St Martin d' Heres (France); Johnsen, Sigfus [University of Copenhagen, Department of Geophysics, Copenhagen (Denmark); Huber, Christof; Leuenberger, Markus; Schwander, Jakob [University of Bern, Physics Institute, Bern (Switzerland)

    2006-02-01

    The mechanisms involved in the glacial inception are still poorly constrained due to a lack of high resolution and cross-dated climate records at various locations. Using air isotopic measurements in the recently drilled NorthGRIP ice core, we show that no evidence exists for stratigraphic disturbance of the climate record of the last glacial inception ({proportional_to}123-100 kyears BP) encompassing Dansgaard-Oeschger events (DO) 25, 24 and 23, even if we lack sufficient resolution to completely rule out disturbance over DO 25. We quantify the rapid surface temperature variability over DO 23 and 24 with associated warmings of 10{+-}2.5 and 16{+-}2.5 C, amplitudes which mimic those observed in full glacial conditions. We use records of {delta}{sup 18}O of O{sub 2} to propose a common timescale for the NorthGRIP and the Antarctic Vostok ice cores, with a maximum uncertainty of 2,500 years, and to examine the interhemispheric sequence of events over this period. After a synchronous North-South temperature decrease, the onset of rapid events is triggered in the North through DO 25. As for later events, DO 24 and 23 have a clear Antarctic counterpart which does not seem to be the case for the very first abrupt warming (DO 25). This information, when added to intermediate levels of CO{sub 2} and to the absence of clear ice rafting associated with DO 25, highlights the uniqueness of this first event, while DO 24 and 23 appear similar to typical full glacial DO events. (orig.)

  1. Do Quercus ilex woodlands undergo abrupt non-linear functional changes in response to human disturbance along a climatic gradient?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bochet, Esther; García-Fayos, Patricio; José Molina, Maria; Moreno de las Heras, Mariano; Espigares, Tíscar; Nicolau, Jose Manuel; Monleon, Vicente

    2017-04-01

    Theoretical models predict that drylands are particularly prone to suffer critical transitions with abrupt non-linear changes in their structure and functions as a result of the existing complex interactions between climatic fluctuations and human disturbances. However, so far, few studies provide empirical data to validate these models. We aim at determining how holm oak (Quercus ilex) woodlands undergo changes in their functions in response to human disturbance along an aridity gradient (from semi-arid to sub-humid conditions), in eastern Spain. For that purpose, we used (a) remote-sensing estimations of precipitation-use-efficiency (PUE) from enhanced vegetation index (EVI) observations performed in 231x231 m plots of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS); (b) biological and chemical soil parameter determinations (extracellular soil enzyme activity, soil respiration, nutrient cycling processes) from soil sampled in the same plots; (c) vegetation parameter determinations (ratio of functional groups) from vegetation surveys performed in the same plots. We analyzed and compared the shape of the functional change (in terms of PUE and soil and vegetation parameters) in response to human disturbance intensity for our holm oak sites along the aridity gradient. Overall, our results evidenced important differences in the shape of the functional change in response to human disturbance between climatic conditions. Semi-arid areas experienced a more accelerated non-linear decrease with an increasing disturbance intensity than sub-humid ones. The proportion of functional groups (herbaceous vs. woody cover) played a relevant role in the shape of the functional response of the holm oak sites to human disturbance.

  2. Developing spatial biophysical accounting for multiple ecosystem services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Remme, R.P.; Schroter, M.; Hein, L.G.

    2014-01-01

    Ecosystem accounting is receiving increasing interest as a way to systematically monitor the conditions of ecosystems and the ecosystem services they provide. A critical element of ecosystem accounting is understanding spatially explicit flows of ecosystem services. We developed spatial biophysical

  3. Ensemble ecosystem modeling for predicting ecosystem response to predator reintroduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Christopher M; Gordon, Ascelin; Bode, Michael

    2017-04-01

    Introducing a new or extirpated species to an ecosystem is risky, and managers need quantitative methods that can predict the consequences for the recipient ecosystem. Proponents of keystone predator reintroductions commonly argue that the presence of the predator will restore ecosystem function, but this has not always been the case, and mathematical modeling has an important role to play in predicting how reintroductions will likely play out. We devised an ensemble modeling method that integrates species interaction networks and dynamic community simulations and used it to describe the range of plausible consequences of 2 keystone-predator reintroductions: wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone National Park and dingoes (Canis dingo) to a national park in Australia. Although previous methods for predicting ecosystem responses to such interventions focused on predicting changes around a given equilibrium, we used Lotka-Volterra equations to predict changing abundances through time. We applied our method to interaction networks for wolves in Yellowstone National Park and for dingoes in Australia. Our model replicated the observed dynamics in Yellowstone National Park and produced a larger range of potential outcomes for the dingo network. However, we also found that changes in small vertebrates or invertebrates gave a good indication about the potential future state of the system. Our method allowed us to predict when the systems were far from equilibrium. Our results showed that the method can also be used to predict which species may increase or decrease following a reintroduction and can identify species that are important to monitor (i.e., species whose changes in abundance give extra insight into broad changes in the system). Ensemble ecosystem modeling can also be applied to assess the ecosystem-wide implications of other types of interventions including assisted migration, biocontrol, and invasive species eradication. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

  4. Progress and challenges in the development of ecosystem accounting as a tool to analyse ecosystem capital

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hein, Lars; Obst, Carl; Edens, Bram; Remme, R.P.

    2015-01-01

    Ecosystem accounting has been developed as a systematic approach to incorporate measures of ecosystem services and ecosystem assets into an accounting structure. Ecosystem accounting involves spatially explicit modelling of ecosystem services and assets, in both physical and monetary terms. A

  5. Parallel ecological networks in ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olff, Han; Alonso, David; Berg, Matty P.; Eriksson, B. Klemens; Loreau, Michel; Piersma, Theunis; Rooney, Neil

    2009-01-01

    In ecosystems, species interact with other species directly and through abiotic factors in multiple ways, often forming complex networks of various types of ecological interaction. Out of this suite of interactions, predator–prey interactions have received most attention. The resulting food webs, however, will always operate simultaneously with networks based on other types of ecological interaction, such as through the activities of ecosystem engineers or mutualistic interactions. Little is known about how to classify, organize and quantify these other ecological networks and their mutual interplay. The aim of this paper is to provide new and testable ideas on how to understand and model ecosystems in which many different types of ecological interaction operate simultaneously. We approach this problem by first identifying six main types of interaction that operate within ecosystems, of which food web interactions are one. Then, we propose that food webs are structured among two main axes of organization: a vertical (classic) axis representing trophic position and a new horizontal ‘ecological stoichiometry’ axis representing decreasing palatability of plant parts and detritus for herbivores and detrivores and slower turnover times. The usefulness of these new ideas is then explored with three very different ecosystems as test cases: temperate intertidal mudflats; temperate short grass prairie; and tropical savannah. PMID:19451126

  6. Ecosystem services provided by waterbirds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Andy J; Elmberg, Johan

    2014-02-01

    Ecosystem services are ecosystem processes that directly or indirectly benefit human well-being. There has been much recent literature identifying different services and the communities and species that provide them. This is a vital first step towards management and maintenance of these services. In this review, we specifically address the waterbirds, which play key functional roles in many aquatic ecosystems, including as predators, herbivores and vectors of seeds, invertebrates and nutrients, although these roles have often been overlooked. Waterbirds can maintain the diversity of other organisms, control pests, be effective bioindicators of ecological conditions, and act as sentinels of potential disease outbreaks. They also provide important provisioning (meat, feathers, eggs, etc.) and cultural services to both indigenous and westernized societies. We identify key gaps in the understanding of ecosystem services provided by waterbirds and areas for future research required to clarify their functional role in ecosystems and the services they provide. We consider how the economic value of these services could be calculated, giving some examples. Such valuation will provide powerful arguments for waterbird conservation. © 2013 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2013 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

  7. Belowground dynamics in mangrove ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKee, Karen L.

    2004-01-01

    Mangrove ecosystems are tropical/subtropical communities of primarily tree species that grow in the intertidal zone. These tidal communities are important coastal ecosystems that are valued for a variety of ecological and societal goods and services (fig. 1). Mangrove wetlands are important filters of materials moving between the land and sea, trapping sediment, nutrients, and pollutants in runoff from uplands and preventing their direct introduction into sensitive marine ecosystems such as seagrass beds and coral reefs. Mangroves serve as nursery grounds and refuge for a variety of organisms and are consequently vital to the biological productivity of coastal waters. Furthermore, because mangroves are highly resilient to disturbances such as hurricanes, they represent a self-sustaining, protective barrier for human populations living in the coastal zone. Mangrove ecosystems also contribute to shoreline stabilization through consolidation of unstable mineral sediments and peat formation. In order to help conserve mangrove ecoystems, scientists with the United States Geological Survey (USGS) at the National Wetlands Research Center are working to more fully understand the dynamics that impact these vital ecosystems.

  8. Defining Ecosystem Assets for Natural Capital Accounting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hein, Lars; Bagstad, Ken; Edens, Bram; Obst, Carl; de Jong, Rixt; Lesschen, Jan Peter

    2016-01-01

    In natural capital accounting, ecosystems are assets that provide ecosystem services to people. Assets can be measured using both physical and monetary units. In the international System of Environmental-Economic Accounting, ecosystem assets are generally valued on the basis of the net present value of the expected flow of ecosystem services. In this paper we argue that several additional conceptualisations of ecosystem assets are needed to understand ecosystems as assets, in support of ecosystem assessments, ecosystem accounting and ecosystem management. In particular, we define ecosystems’ capacity and capability to supply ecosystem services, as well as the potential supply of ecosystem services. Capacity relates to sustainable use levels of multiple ecosystem services, capability involves prioritising the use of one ecosystem service over a basket of services, and potential supply considers the ability of ecosystems to generate services regardless of demand for these services. We ground our definitions in the ecosystem services and accounting literature, and illustrate and compare the concepts of flow, capacity, capability, and potential supply with a range of conceptual and real-world examples drawn from case studies in Europe and North America. Our paper contributes to the development of measurement frameworks for natural capital to support environmental accounting and other assessment frameworks. PMID:27828969

  9. Defining ecosystem assets for natural capital accounting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hein, Lars; Bagstad, Kenneth J.; Edens, Bram; Obst, Carl; de Jong, Rixt; Lesschen, Jan Peter

    2016-01-01

    In natural capital accounting, ecosystems are assets that provide ecosystem services to people. Assets can be measured using both physical and monetary units. In the international System of Environmental-Economic Accounting, ecosystem assets are generally valued on the basis of the net present value of the expected flow of ecosystem services. In this paper we argue that several additional conceptualisations of ecosystem assets are needed to understand ecosystems as assets, in support of ecosystem assessments, ecosystem accounting and ecosystem management. In particular, we define ecosystems’ capacity and capability to supply ecosystem services, as well as the potential supply of ecosystem services. Capacity relates to sustainable use levels of multiple ecosystem services, capability involves prioritising the use of one ecosystem service over a basket of services, and potential supply considers the ability of ecosystems to generate services regardless of demand for these services. We ground our definitions in the ecosystem services and accounting literature, and illustrate and compare the concepts of flow, capacity, capability, and potential supply with a range of conceptual and real-world examples drawn from case studies in Europe and North America. Our paper contributes to the development of measurement frameworks for natural capital to support environmental accounting and other assessment frameworks.

  10. Abrupt transition to heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity in England and Wales, 1947-1957, associated with a pronounced increase in the geographical rate of disease propagation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smallman-Raynor, M R; Cliff, A D

    2014-03-01

    The abrupt transition to heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity in England and Wales, 1947-1957, was associated with a profound change in the spatial dynamics of the disease. Drawing on the complete record of poliomyelitis notifications in England and Wales, we use a robust method of spatial epidemiological analysis (swash-backwash model) to evaluate the geographical rate of disease propagation in successive poliomyelitis seasons, 1940-1964. Comparisons with earlier and later time periods show that the period of heightened poliomyelitis epidemicity corresponded with a sudden and pronounced increase in the spatial rate of disease propagation. This change was observed for both urban and rural areas and points to an abrupt enhancement in the propensity for the geographical spread of polioviruses. Competing theories of the epidemic emergence of poliomyelitis in England and Wales should be assessed in the light of this evidence.

  11. Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Services in High Mountain Areas: A Literature Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ignacio Palomo

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available High mountain areas are experiencing some of the earliest and greatest impacts of climate change. However, knowledge on how climate change impacts multiple ecosystem services that benefit different stakeholder groups remains scattered in the literature. This article presents a review of the literature on climate change impacts on ecosystem services benefiting local communities and tourists in high mountain areas. Results show a lack of studies focused on the global South, especially where there are tropical glaciers, which are likely to be the first to disappear. Climate change impacts can be classified as impacts on food and feed, water availability, natural hazards regulation, spirituality and cultural identity, aesthetics, and recreation. In turn, climate change impacts on infrastructure and accessibility also affect ecosystem services. Several of these impacts are a direct threat to the lives of mountain peoples, their livelihoods and their culture. Mountain tourism is experiencing abrupt changes too. The magnitude of impacts make it necessary to strengthen measures to adapt to climate change in high mountain areas.

  12. Population cycles and species diversity in dynamic Kill-the-Winner model of microbial ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maslov, Sergei; Sneppen, Kim

    2017-01-01

    Determinants of species diversity in microbial ecosystems remain poorly understood. Bacteriophages are believed to increase the diversity by the virtue of Kill-the-Winner infection bias preventing the fastest growing organism from taking over the community. Phage-bacterial ecosystems are traditionally described in terms of the static equilibrium state of Lotka-Volterra equations in which bacterial growth is exactly balanced by losses due to phage predation. Here we consider a more dynamic scenario in which phage infections give rise to abrupt and severe collapses of bacterial populations whenever they become sufficiently large. As a consequence, each bacterial population in our model follows cyclic dynamics of exponential growth interrupted by sudden declines. The total population of all species fluctuates around the carrying capacity of the environment, making these cycles cryptic. While a subset of the slowest growing species in our model is always driven towards extinction, in general the overall ecosystem diversity remains high. The number of surviving species is inversely proportional to the variation in their growth rates but increases with the frequency and severity of phage-induced collapses. Thus counter-intuitively we predict that microbial communities exposed to more violent perturbations should have higher diversity. PMID:28051127

  13. Identifying optimal remotely-sensed variables for ecosystem monitoring in Colorado Plateau drylands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poitras, Travis; Villarreal, Miguel; Waller, Eric K.; Nauman, Travis; Miller, Mark E.; Duniway, Michael C.

    2018-01-01

    Water-limited ecosystems often recover slowly following anthropogenic or natural disturbance. Multitemporal remote sensing can be used to monitor ecosystem recovery after disturbance; however, dryland vegetation cover can be challenging to accurately measure due to sparse cover and spectral confusion between soils and non-photosynthetic vegetation. With the goal of optimizing a monitoring approach for identifying both abrupt and gradual vegetation changes, we evaluated the ability of Landsat-derived spectral variables to characterize surface variability of vegetation cover and bare ground across a range of vegetation community types. Using three year composites of Landsat data, we modeled relationships between spectral information and field data collected at monitoring sites near Canyonlands National Park, UT. We also developed multiple regression models to assess improvement over single variables. We found that for all vegetation types, percent cover bare ground could be accurately modeled with single indices that included a combination of red and shortwave infrared bands, while near infrared-based vegetation indices like NDVI worked best for quantifying tree cover and total live vegetation cover in woodlands. We applied four models to characterize the spatial distribution of putative grassland ecological states across our study area, illustrating how this approach can be implemented to guide dryland ecosystem management.

  14. Growth dynamics of SiGe nanowires by the Vapour Liquid Solid method and its impact on SiGe/Si axial heterojunction abruptness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pura, Jose Luis; Periwal, Priyanka; Baron, Thierry; Jimenez, Juan

    2018-06-05

    The Vapour Liquid Solid (VLS) method is by far the most extended procedure for bottom-up nanowire growth. This method also allows for the manufacture of nanowire axial heterojunctions in a straightforward way. To do this, during the growth process the precursor gases are switched on/off to obtain the desired change in the nanowire composition. Using this technique axially heterostructured nanowires can be grown, which are crucial for the fabrication of electronic and optoelectronic devices. SiGe/Si nanowires are compatible with Complementary Metal Oxide Semiconductor (CMOS) technology, this improves their versatility and the possibility of integration with the current electronic technologies. Abrupt heterointerfaces are fundamental for the development and correct operation of electronic and optoelectronic devices. Unfortunately, VLS growth of SiGe/Si heterojunctions does not provide abrupt transitions because of the high solubility of group IV semiconductors in Au, with the corresponding reservoir effect that precludes the growth of sharp interfaces. In this work, we studied the growth dynamics of SiGe/Si heterojunctions based on already developed models for VLS growth. A composition map of the Si-Ge-Au liquid alloy is proposed to better understand the impact of the growing conditions on the nanowire growth process and the heterojunction formation. The solution of our model provides heterojunction profiles in good agreement with experimental measurements. Finally, the in-depth study of the composition map provides a practical approach to reduce drastically the heterojunction abruptness by reducing the Si and Ge concentrations in the catalyst droplet. This converges with previous approaches that use catalysts aiming to reduce the solubility of the atomic species. This analysis opens new paths to reduce the heterojunction abruptness using Au catalysts, but the model can be naturally extended to other catalysts and semiconductors. © 2018 IOP Publishing Ltd.

  15. Chromophobe hepatocellular carcinoma with abrupt anaplasia: a proposal for a new subtype of hepatocellular carcinoma with unique morphological and molecular features.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Laura D; Heaphy, Christopher M; Daniel, Hubert Darius-J; Naini, Bita V; Lassman, Charles R; Arroyo, May R; Kamel, Ihab R; Cosgrove, David P; Boitnott, John K; Meeker, Alan K; Torbenson, Michael S

    2013-12-01

    Hepatocellular carcinomas exhibit heterogeneous morphologies by routine light microscopy. Although some morphologies represent insignificant variations in growth patterns, others may represent unrecognized subtypes of hepatocellular carcinoma. Identification of these subtypes could lead to separation of hepatocellular carcinomas into discrete groups with unique underlying genetic changes, prognosis, or therapeutic responses. In order to identify potential subtypes, two pathologists independently screened a cohort of 219 unselected hepatocellular carcinoma resection specimens and divided cases into potential subtypes. One of these promising candidate subtypes was further evaluated using histological and molecular techniques. This subtype was characterized by a unique and consistent set of histological features: smooth chromophobic cytoplasm, abrupt focal nuclear anaplasia (small clusters of tumor cells with marked nuclear anaplasia in a background of tumor cells with bland nuclear cytology), and scattered microscopic pseudocysts--we designate this variant as 'chromophobe hepatocellular carcinoma with abrupt anaplasia'. Thirteen cases were identified (6% of all hepatocellular carcinomas), including 6 men and 7 women with an average age of 61 years. Six cases occurred in cirrhotic livers. Serum AFP was elevated in 6 out of 10 cases. There were a variety of underlying liver diseases, but cases were enrichment for chronic hepatitis B, P=0.006. Interestingly, at the molecular level, this variant was strongly associated with the alternative lengthening of telomere (ALT) phenotype by telomere FISH. ALT is a telomerase-independent mechanism of telomere maintenance and is found in approximately 8% of unselected hepatocellular carcinomas. In contrast, 11/12 (92%) of the cases of chromophobe hepatocellular carcinoma with abrupt anaplasia were ALT-positive. In summary, we propose that chromophobe hepatocellular carcinoma with abrupt anaplasia represents a new subtype of

  16. Holocene megathermal abrupt environmental changes derived from {sup 14}C dating of a coral reef at Leizhou Peninsula, South China Sea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shen Chengde; Yi Weixi E-mail: cdshen@gig.ac.cn; Yu Kefu; Sun Yanmin; Liu Tungsheng; Beer, J.; Hajdas, I.; Bonani, G

    2004-08-01

    A depth profile of a Goniopora coral reef at Leizhou Peninsula, South China Sea, was radiocarbon dated using liquid scintillation counting (LSC) and accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS). The time of formation, during 6600-7400 cal BP, can be divided into nine stages, each terminated by abrupt growth cessation of Goniopora and appearance of Ostrea shells. The results show that, during the Holocene megathermal (8.2-3.3 ka BP), large climatic changes have occurred in the South China Sea area.

  17. Bundling ecosystem services in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Turner, Katrine Grace; Odgaard, Mette Vestergaard; Bøcher, Peder Klith

    2014-01-01

    We made a spatial analysis of 11 ecosystem services at a 10 km × 10 km grid scale covering most of Denmark. Our objective was to describe their spatial distribution and interactions and also to analyze whether they formed specific bundle types on a regional scale in the Danish cultural landscape....... We found clustered distribution patterns of ecosystem services across the country. There was a significant tendency for trade-offs between on the one hand cultural and regulating services and on the other provisioning services, and we also found the potential of regulating and cultural services...... to form synergies. We identified six distinct ecosystem service bundle types, indicating multiple interactions at a landscape level. The bundle types showed specialized areas of agricultural production, high provision of cultural services at the coasts, multifunctional mixed-use bundle types around urban...

  18. Valuation of rangeland ecosystem services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gascoigne, W.R.

    2011-01-01

    Economic valuation lends itself well to the anthropocentric orientation of ecosystem services. An economic perspective on ecosystems portrays them as natural assets providing a flow of goods and services valuable to individuals and society collectively. A few examples include the purification of drinking water, reduced risk from flooding and other extreme events, pollination of agricultural crops, climate regulation, and recreation opportunities from plant and animal habitat maintenance, among many others. Once these goods and services are identified and quantified, they can be monetized to complete the valuation process. The monetization of ecosystem goods and services (in the form of dollars) provides a common metric that allows for cross-comparison of attributes and evaluation of differing ecological scenarios. Complicating the monetization process is the fact that most of these goods and services are public and non-market in nature; meaning they are non-rival and non-exclusive and are typically not sold in a traditional market setting where monetary values are revealed. Instead, one must employ non-market valuation techniques, with primary valuation methods typically being very time and resource consuming, intimidating to non-economists, and often impractical. For these reasons, benefit transfer methods have gained popularity. This methodology harnesses the primary collection results of existing studies to make inferences about the economic values of non-market goods and services at an alternative policy site (in place and/or in time). For instance, if a primary valuation study on oak reestablishment on rangelands in southern California yielded a value of $30 per-acre associated with water regulation, this result can be transferred, with some adjustments, to say something about the value of an acre of oaks on rangelands in northern portions of the state. The economic valuation of rangeland ecosystem services has many roles. Economic values may be used as input

  19. Abrupt Climate Change and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: sensitivity and non-linear response to Arctic/sub-Arctic freshwater pulses. Collaborative research. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hill, Christopher [MIT (Massachusetts Inst. of Technology), Cambridge, MA (United States)

    2015-06-15

    This project investigated possible mechanisms by which melt-water pulses can induce abrupt change in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) magnitude. AMOC magnitude is an important ingredient in present day climate. Previous studies have hypothesized abrupt reduction in AMOC magnitude in response to influxes of glacial melt water into the North Atlantic. Notable fresh-water influxes are associated with the terminus of the last ice age. During this period large volumes of melt water accumulated behind retreating ice sheets and subsequently drained rapidly when the ice weakened sufficiently. Rapid draining of glacial lakes into the North Atlantic is a possible origin of a number of paleo-record abrupt climate shifts. These include the Younger-Dryas cooling event and the 8,200 year cooling event. The studies undertaken focused on whether the mechanistic sequence by which glacial melt-water impacts AMOC, which then impacts Northern Hemisphere global mean surface temperature, is dynamically plausible. The work has implications for better understanding past climate stability. The work also has relevance for today’s environment, in which high-latitude ice melting in Greenland appears to be driving fresh water outflows at an accelerating pace.

  20. Forecasting sagebrush ecosystem components and greater sage-grouse habitat for 2050: learning from past climate patterns and Landsat imagery to predict the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Homer, Collin G.; Xian, George Z.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Meyer, Debra K.; Loveland, Thomas R.; O'Donnell, Michael S.

    2015-01-01

    Sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems constitute the largest single North American shrub ecosystem and provide vital ecological, hydrological, biological, agricultural, and recreational ecosystem services. Disturbances have altered and reduced this ecosystem historically, but climate change may ultimately represent the greatest future risk. Improved ways to quantify, monitor, and predict climate-driven gradual change in this ecosystem is vital to its future management. We examined the annual change of Daymet precipitation (daily gridded climate data) and five remote sensing ecosystem sagebrush vegetation and soil components (bare ground, herbaceous, litter, sagebrush, and shrub) from 1984 to 2011 in southwestern Wyoming. Bare ground displayed an increasing trend in abundance over time, and herbaceous, litter, shrub, and sagebrush showed a decreasing trend. Total precipitation amounts show a downward trend during the same period. We established statistically significant correlations between each sagebrush component and historical precipitation records using a simple least squares linear regression. Using the historical relationship between sagebrush component abundance and precipitation in a linear model, we forecasted the abundance of the sagebrush components in 2050 using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) precipitation scenarios A1B and A2. Bare ground was the only component that increased under both future scenarios, with a net increase of 48.98 km2 (1.1%) across the study area under the A1B scenario and 41.15 km2 (0.9%) under the A2 scenario. The remaining components decreased under both future scenarios: litter had the highest net reductions with 49.82 km2 (4.1%) under A1B and 50.8 km2 (4.2%) under A2, and herbaceous had the smallest net reductions with 39.95 km2 (3.8%) under A1B and 40.59 km2 (3.3%) under A2. We applied the 2050 forecast sagebrush component values to contemporary (circa 2006) greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus

  1. Controls on winter ecosystem respiration in temperate and boreal ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    T. Wang; P. Ciais; S.L. Piao; C. Ottle; P. Brender; F. Maignan; A. Arain; A. Cescatti; D. Gianelle; C. Gough; L Gu; P. Lafleur; T. Laurila; B. Marcolla; H. Margolis; L. Montagnani; E. Moors; N. Saigusa; T. Vesala; G. Wohlfahrt; C. Koven; A. Black; E. Dellwik; A. Don; D. Hollinger; A. Knohl; R. Monson; J. Munger; A. Suyker; A. Varlagin; S. Verma

    2011-01-01

    Winter CO2 fluxes represent an important component of the annual carbon budget in northern ecosystems. Understanding winter respiration processes and their responses to climate change is also central to our ability to assess terrestrial carbon cycle and climate feedbacks in the future. However, the factors influencing the spatial and temporal...

  2. Mapping monetary values of ecosystem services in support of developing ecosystem accounts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sumarga, Elham; Hein, Lars; Edens, Bram; Suwarno, Aritta

    2015-01-01

    Ecosystem accounting has been proposed as a comprehensive, innovative approach to natural capital accounting, and basically involves the biophysical and monetary analysis of ecosystem services in a national accounting framework. Characteristic for ecosystem accounting is the spatial approach

  3. Scenarios for Ecosystem Services: An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen R. Carpenter

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA scenarios address changes in ecosystem services and their implications for human well-being. Ecological changes pose special challenges for long-term thinking, because of the possibility of regime shifts that occur rapidly yet alter the availability of ecosystem services for generations. Moreover, ecological feedbacks can intensify human modification of ecosystems, creating a spiral of poverty and ecosystem degradation. Such complex dynamics were evaluated by a mixture of qualitative and quantitative analyses in the MA scenarios. Collectively, the scenarios explore problems such as the connections of poverty reduction and ecosystem services, and trade-offs among ecosystem services. Several promising approaches are considered by the scenarios, including uses of biodiversity to build resilience of ecosystem services, actively adaptive management, and green technology. Although the scenarios do not prescribe an optimal path, they illuminate the consequences of different policies toward ecosystem services.

  4. Software ecosystems – a systematic literature review

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manikas, Konstantinos; Hansen, Klaus Marius

    2013-01-01

    A software ecosystem is the interaction of a set of actors on top of a common technological platform that results in a number of software solutions or services. Arguably, software ecosystems are gaining importance with the advent of, e.g., the Google Android, Apache, and Salesforce.com ecosystems....... However, there exists no systematic overview of the research done on software ecosystems from a software engineering perspective. We performed a systematic literature review of software ecosystem research, analyzing 90 papers on the subject taken from a gross collection of 420. Our main conclusions...... are that while research on software ecosystems is increasing (a) there is little consensus on what constitutes a software ecosystem, (b) few analytical models of software ecosystems exist, and (c) little research is done in the context of real-world ecosystems. This work provides an overview of the field, while...

  5. Comparison of trends and abrupt changes of the South Asia high from 1979 to 2014 in reanalysis and radiosonde datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Chunhua; Huang, Ying; Guo, Dong; Zhou, Shunwu; Hu, Kaixi; Liu, Yu

    2018-05-01

    The South Asian High (SAH) has an important influence on atmospheric circulation and the Asian climate in summer. However, current comparative analyses of the SAH are mostly between reanalysis datasets and there is a lack of sounding data. We therefore compared the climatology, trends and abrupt changes in the SAH in the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) dataset, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR) dataset, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis Interim (ERA-interim) dataset and radiosonde data from China using linear analysis and a sliding t-test. The trends in geopotential height in the control area of the SAH were positive in the JRA-55, NCEP-CFSR and ERA-interim datasets, but negative in the radiosonde data in the time period 1979-2014. The negative trends for the SAH were significant at the 90% confidence level in the radiosonde data from May to September. The positive trends in the NCEP-CFSR dataset were significant at the 90% confidence level in May, July, August and September, but the positive trends in the JRA-55 and ERA-Interim were only significant at the 90% confidence level in September. The reasons for the differences in the trends of the SAH between the radiosonde data and the three reanalysis datasets in the time period 1979-2014 were updates to the sounding systems, changes in instrumentation and improvements in the radiation correction method for calculations around the year 2000. We therefore analyzed the trends in the two time periods of 1979-2000 and 2001-2014 separately. From 1979 to 2000, the negative SAH trends in the radiosonde data mainly agreed with the negative trends in the NCEP-CFSR dataset, but were in contrast with the positive trends in the JRA-55 and ERA-Interim datasets. In 2001-2014, however, the trends in the SAH were positive in all four datasets and most of the trends in the radiosonde and NCEP-CFSR datasets were significant. It is

  6. Microbial Community Dynamics from Permafrost Across the Pleistocene-Holocene Boundary and Response to Abrupt Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammad, A.; Mahony, M.; Froese, D. G.; Lanoil, B. D.

    2014-12-01

    Earth is currently undergoing rapid warming similar to that observed about 10,000 years ago at the end of the Pleistocene. We know a considerable amount about the adaptations and extinctions of mammals and plants at the Pleistocene/Holocene (P/H) boundary, but relatively little about changes at the microbial level. Due to permafrost soils' freezing anoxic conditions, they act as microbial diversity archives allowing us to determine how microbial communities adapted to the abrupt warming at the end of P. Since microbial community composition only helps differentiate viable and extant microorganisms in frozen permafrost, microbial activity in thawing permafrost must be investigated to provide a clear understanding of microbial response to climate change. Current increased temperatures will result in warming and potential thaw of permafrost and release of stored organic carbon, freeing it for microbial utilization; turning permafrost into a carbon source. Studying permafrost viable microbial communities' diversity and activity will provide a better understanding of how these microorganisms respond to soil edaphic variability due to climate change across the P/H boundary, providing insight into the changes that the soil community is currently undergoing in this modern era of rapid climate change. Modern soil, H and P permafrost cores were collected from Lucky Lady II site outside Dawson City, Yukon. 16S rRNA high throughput sequencing of permafrost DNA showed the same trends for total and viable community richness and diversity with both decreasing with permafrost depth and only the richness increasing in mid and early P. The modern, H and P soils had 50.9, 33.9, and 27.3% unique viable species and only 14% of the total number of viable species were shared by all soils. Gas flux measurements of thawed permafrost showed metabolic activity in modern and permafrost soils, aerobic CH­­4 consumption in modern, some H and P soils, and anaerobic CH­­4 production in one H

  7. Quantifying the web browser ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferdman, Sela; Minkov, Einat; Bekkerman, Ron; Gefen, David

    2017-01-01

    Contrary to the assumption that web browsers are designed to support the user, an examination of a 900,000 distinct PCs shows that web browsers comprise a complex ecosystem with millions of addons collaborating and competing with each other. It is possible for addons to "sneak in" through third party installations or to get "kicked out" by their competitors without user involvement. This study examines that ecosystem quantitatively by constructing a large-scale graph with nodes corresponding to users, addons, and words (terms) that describe addon functionality. Analyzing addon interactions at user level using the Personalized PageRank (PPR) random walk measure shows that the graph demonstrates ecological resilience. Adapting the PPR model to analyzing the browser ecosystem at the level of addon manufacturer, the study shows that some addon companies are in symbiosis and others clash with each other as shown by analyzing the behavior of 18 prominent addon manufacturers. Results may herald insight on how other evolving internet ecosystems may behave, and suggest a methodology for measuring this behavior. Specifically, applying such a methodology could transform the addon market.

  8. Mangrove ecosystems under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennerjahn, T.C.; Gilman, E.; Krauss, Ken W.; Lacerda, L.D.; Nordhaus, I.; Wolanski, E.

    2017-01-01

    This chapter assesses the response of mangrove ecosystems to possible outcomes of climate change, with regard to the following categories: (i) distribution, diversity, and community composition, (ii) physiology of flora and fauna, (iii) water budget, (iv) productivity and remineralization, (v) carbon storage in biomass and sediments, and (vi) the filter function for elements beneficial or harmful to life. These categories are then used to identify the regions most vulnerable to climate change. The four most important factors determining the response of mangrove ecosystems to climate change are sea level rise, an increase in frequency and/or intensity of storms, increases in temperature, and aridity. While these changes may be beneficial for some mangrove forests at latitudinal distribution limits, they will threaten forest structure and functions and related ecosystem services in most cases. The interaction of climate change with human interventions is discussed, as well as the effects on ecosystem services including possible adaptation and management options. The chapter closes with an outlook on knowledge gaps and priority research needed to fill these gaps.

  9. Ecosystem Restoration: Fact or Fancy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    John A. Stanturf; Callie J. Schweitzer; Stephen H. Schoenholtz; James P. Barnett; Charles K. McMahon; Donald J. Tomszak

    1998-01-01

    Ecological restoration is generally accepted as the reestablishment of natural ecological processes that produce certain dynamic ecosystem properties of structure, function, and processes. But restore to what? The most frequently used conceptual model for the restoration process is the shift of conditions from some current (degraded) dynamic state to some past dynamic...

  10. Conditions for entrepreneurial ecosystem development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Radziwon, Agnieszka; Bogers, Marcel; Brem, Alexander

    ecosystems. The key findings discussed in the paper include general organizational requirements and governing structures, the role of leadership and ownership of the initiatives, and suggestions for potential collaborative areas. The paper concludes with suggestions both for potential inter......-firm collaborative areas and for policy makers’ support....

  11. Forest operations for ecosystem management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert B. Rummer; John Baumgras; Joe McNeel

    1997-01-01

    The evolution of modern forest resource management is focusing on ecologically sensitive forest operations. This shift in management strategies is producing a new set of functional requirements for forest operations. Systems to implement ecosystem management prescriptions may need to be economically viable over a wider range of piece sizes, for example. Increasing...

  12. Parallel ecological networks in ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Olff, Han; Alonso, David; Berg, Matty P.; Eriksson, B. Klemens; Loreau, Michel; Piersma, Theunis; Rooney, Neil

    2009-01-01

    In ecosystems, species interact with other species directly and through abiotic factors in multiple ways, often forming complex networks of various types of ecological interaction. Out of this suite of interactions, predator-prey interactions have received most attention. The resulting food webs,

  13. Biological invasions in forest ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew M. Liebhold; Eckehard G. Brockerhoff; Susan Kalisz; Martin A. Nuñez; David A. Wardle; Michael J. Wingfield

    2017-01-01

    Forests play critical roles in global ecosystem processes and provide numerous services to society. But forests are increasingly affected by a variety of human influences, especially those resulting from biological invasions. Species invading forests include woody and herbaceous plants, many animal species including mammals and invertebrates, as well as a variety of...

  14. Simulating the net ecosystem CO

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vuichard, Nicolas; Ciais, Philippe; Viovy, Nicolas; Li, Longhui; Ceschia, Eric; Wattenbach, Martin; Bernhofer, Christian; Emmel, Carmen; Grünwald, Thomas; Jans, Wilma; Loubet, Benjamin; Wu, Xiuchen

    2016-01-01

    Over the last decade, efforts have been carried on to develop and evaluate versions of global terrestrial ecosystem models (GTEM) in which crop specificities are represented. The goal of this study is to evaluate the ability of the ORCHIDEE-STICS (Organising Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic

  15. 1 Ecosystem-based.cdr

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Administrator

    Abstract. The ecosystem approach is a widely accepted framework for natural resource ... Here, we present a set of indicators, and a toolkit to aid their application, that are intended to support the ... Ability to adapt to different spatial scales ... growth of plants and algae, which may increase to create .... taxonomic resources).

  16. Microtopography recreation benefits ecosystem restoration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei Wei; Liding Chen; Lei Yang; F. Fred Samadani; Ge Sun

    2012-01-01

    Within the context of global warming and accelerated human activities, the surrounding environments of many terrestrial ecosystems worldwide have become increasingly deteriorated, such that finding suitable methods and effective environmental technology to confront climate change and prevent land degradation is critical to the health and sustainability of the earth. In...

  17. Stability measures in arid ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nosshi, M. I.; Brunsell, N. A.; Koerner, S.

    2015-12-01

    Stability, the capacity of ecosystems to persist in the face of change, has proven its relevance as a fundamental component of ecological theory. Here, we would like to explore meaningful and quantifiable metrics to define stability, with a focus on highly variable arid and semi-arid savanna ecosystems. Recognizing the importance of a characteristic timescale to any definition of stability, our metrics will be focused scales from annual to multi-annual, capturing different aspects of stability. Our three measures of stability, in increasing order of temporal scale, are: (1) Ecosystem resistance, quantified as the degree to which the system maintains its mean state in response to a perturbation (drought), based on inter-annual variability in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). (2) An optimization approach, relevant to arid systems with pulse dynamics, that models vegetation structure and function based on a trade off between the ability to respond to resource availability and avoid stress. (3) Community resilience, measured as species turnover rate (β diversity). Understanding the nature of stability in structurally-diverse arid ecosystems, which are highly variable, yields theoretical insight which has practical implications.

  18. Quantifying the web browser ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferdman, Sela; Minkov, Einat; Gefen, David

    2017-01-01

    Contrary to the assumption that web browsers are designed to support the user, an examination of a 900,000 distinct PCs shows that web browsers comprise a complex ecosystem with millions of addons collaborating and competing with each other. It is possible for addons to “sneak in” through third party installations or to get “kicked out” by their competitors without user involvement. This study examines that ecosystem quantitatively by constructing a large-scale graph with nodes corresponding to users, addons, and words (terms) that describe addon functionality. Analyzing addon interactions at user level using the Personalized PageRank (PPR) random walk measure shows that the graph demonstrates ecological resilience. Adapting the PPR model to analyzing the browser ecosystem at the level of addon manufacturer, the study shows that some addon companies are in symbiosis and others clash with each other as shown by analyzing the behavior of 18 prominent addon manufacturers. Results may herald insight on how other evolving internet ecosystems may behave, and suggest a methodology for measuring this behavior. Specifically, applying such a methodology could transform the addon market. PMID:28644833

  19. Future directions of ecosystem science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baron, Jill S.; Galvin, Kathleen A.

    1990-01-01

    Scientific knowledge about ecosystem structure and function has expanded greatly during the past few decades. Terrestrial and aquatic nutrient cycling, ecosystem energetics, population dynamics, belowground processes, and food webs have been studied at the plot, stand, watershed, and landscape levels at many locations around the globe. Ideas about terrestrial-atmospheric interactions and human interference in these processes have changed dramatically. There is new appreciation of the need to incorporate into ecosystem studies the interactions between human populations and the ecosystem, not only because humans affect ecosystem processes, but because these systems support human populations (Glantz 1988, Holden 1988, Parry et al. 1988, WCED 1987). Recent advances in ecosystem science are due, in part, to technological improvements in computing power, new laboratory and field physical and chemical analytical techniques, and satellite imagery for remote sensing of Earth's structure and dynamics. Modeling and geographic information systems have provided the capability for integrating multiple data sets with process simulations to generate hypotheses about regional ecosystem function. Concurrent with these scientific developments has been a growing concern about the links between the health of the environment and world-wide industrial, land, and resource-management practices. Environmental damage at the local level was widely recognized in the 1960s, prompting the environmental movement of that decade. Regional environmental problems with multiple effects and politically difficult solutions have been perceived more recently; the issue of acidic deposition provides an example of such a second-generation concern (Clark and Holling 1985). Today there is a growing awareness of global-scale environmental degradation brought about by the combined actions of all peoples on Earth (Clark 1989, Woodmansee et al. 1988). The three levels of environmental concern--local, regional

  20. [Research progress of ecosystem service flow.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Hui Min; Fan, Yu Long; Ding, Sheng Yan

    2016-07-01

    With the development of social economy, human disturbance has resulted in a variety of ecosystem service degradation or disappearance. Ecosystem services flow plays an important role in delivery, transformation and maintenance of ecosystem services, and becomes one of the new research directions. In this paper, based on the classification of ecosystem services flow, we analyzed ecosystem service delivery carrier, and investigated the mechanism of ecosystem service flow, including the information, property, scale features, quantification and cartography. Moreover, a tentative analysis on cost-effective of ecosystem services flow (such as transportation costs, conversion costs, usage costs and cost of relativity) was made to analyze the consumption cost in ecosystem services flow process. It aimed to analyze dissipation cost in ecosystem services flow process. To a certain extent, the study of ecosystem service flow solved the problem of "double counting" in ecosystem services valuation, which could make a contribution for the sake of recognizing hot supply and consumption spots of ecosystem services. In addition, it would be conducive to maximizing the ecosystem service benefits in the transmission process and putting forward scientific and reasonable ecological compensation.

  1. Living in an oasis: Rapid transformations, resilience, and resistance in the North Water Area societies and ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeppesen, Erik; Appelt, Martin; Hastrup, Kirsten; Grønnow, Bjarne; Mosbech, Anders; Smol, John P; Davidson, Thomas A

    2018-04-01

    Based on lake sediment data, archaeological findings, and historical records, we describe rapid transformations, resilience and resistance in societies and ecosystems, and their interactions in the past in the North Water area related to changes in climate and historical events. Examples are the formation of the polynya itself and the early arrival of people, ca. 4500 years ago, and later major human immigrations (different societies, cultural encounters, or abandonment) from other regions in the Arctic. While the early immigrations had relatively modest and localised effect on the ecosystem, the later-incoming culture in the early thirteenth century was marked by extensive migrations into and out of the area and abrupt shifts in hunting technologies. This has had long-lasting consequences for the local lake ecosystems. Large natural transformations in the ecosystems have also occurred over relatively short time periods related to changes in the polynya. Finally, we discuss the future perspectives for the North Water area given the many threats, but also opportunities.

  2. Our natural capital: Ecosystem service delivery

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Dziba, L

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available new technologies in Earth observation that target relevant ecosystem attributes for monitoring ecosystem service changes, tools for spatial development planning in multifunctional landscapes such as ecological infrastructure mapping for disaster...

  3. Grazing management that regenerates ecosystem function and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Grazing management that regenerates ecosystem function and grazingland ... in ecosystem improvement, productivity, soil carbon and fertility, water-holding ... for sufficient time to produce resource improvement, sound animal production, and ...

  4. Identifying national freshwater ecosystem priority areas

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Nel, JL

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available This presentation highlights the use of systematic conservation planning to identify priority areas for managing the health of freshwater ecosystems and their associated biodiversity and ecosystem services....

  5. Analyzing, Modelling, and Designing Software Ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manikas, Konstantinos

    as the software development and distribution by a set of actors dependent on each other and the ecosystem. We commence on the hypothesis that the establishment of a software ecosystem on the telemedicine services of Denmark would address these issues and investigate how a software ecosystem can foster...... the development, implementation, and use of telemedicine services. We initially expand the theory of software ecosystems by contributing to the definition and understanding of software ecosystems, providing means of analyzing existing and designing new ecosystems, and defining and measuring the qualities...... of software ecosystems. We use these contributions to design a software ecosystem in the telemedicine services of Denmark with (i) a common platform that supports and promotes development from different actors, (ii) high software interaction, (iii) strong social network of actors, (iv) robust business...

  6. Socio-hydrologic Modeling to Understand and Mediate the Competition for Water between Humans and Ecosystems: Murrumbidgee River Basin, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Emmerik, Tim; Sivapalan, Murugesu; Li, Zheng; Pande, Saket; Savenije, Hubert

    2014-05-01

    Around the world the demand for water resources is growing in order to satisfy rapidly increasing human populations, leading to competition for water between humans and ecosystems. An entirely new and comprehensive quantitative framework is needed to establish a holistic understanding of that competition, thereby enabling development and evaluation of effective mediation strategies. We present a case study centered on the Murrumbidgee river basin in eastern Australia that illustrates the dynamics of the balance between water extraction and use for food production and efforts to mitigate and reverse consequent degradation of the riparian environment. Interactions between patterns of water resources management and climate driven hydrological variability within the prevailing socio-economic environment have contributed to the emergence of new whole system dynamics over the last 100 years. In particular, data analysis reveals a pendulum swing between an exclusive focus on agricultural development and food production in the initial stages of water resources development and its attendant socio-economic benefits, followed by the gradual realization of the adverse environmental impacts, efforts to mitigate these with the use of remedial measures, and ultimately concerted efforts and externally imposed solutions to restore environmental health and ecosystem services. A quasi-distributed coupled socio-hydrologic system model that explicitly includes the two-way coupling between human and hydrological systems, including evolution of human values/norms relating to water and the environment, is able to mimic broad features of this pendulum swing. The model consists of coupled nonlinear differential equations that include four state variables describing the co-evolution of storage capacity, irrigated area, human population, and ecosystem health, which are all connected by feedback mechanisms. The model is used to generate insights into the dominant controls of the trajectory of

  7. Adventures in holistic ecosystem modelling: the cumberland basin ecosystem model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, D. C.; Keizer, P. D.; Daborn, G. R.; Schwinghamer, P.; Silvert, W. L.

    A holistic ecosystem model has been developed for the Cumberland Basin, a turbid macrotidal estuary at the head of Canada's Bay of Fundy. The model was constructed as a group exercise involving several dozen scientists. Philosophy of approach and methods were patterned after the BOEDE Ems-Dollard modelling project. The model is one-dimensional, has 3 compartments and 3 boundaries, and is composed of 3 separate submodels (physical, pelagic and benthic). The 28 biological state variables cover the complete estuarine ecosystem and represent broad functional groups of organisms based on trophic relationships. Although still under development and not yet validated, the model has been verified and has reached the stage where most state variables provide reasonable output. The modelling process has stimulated interdisciplinary discussion, identified important data gaps and produced a quantitative tool which can be used to examine ecological hypotheses and determine critical environmental processes. As a result, Canadian scientists have a much better understanding of the Cumberland Basin ecosystem and are better able to provide competent advice on environmental management.

  8. Ecological Values of Mangrove Forest Ecosystem

    OpenAIRE

    Kusmana, Cecep

    1996-01-01

    Research on quantification of ecological values of mangrove forest ecosystem are urgently needed, due to its importance as the basics for utilization and management of resources. From the ecological point of vlew, the main prohlem of mangrove ecosystem is rarity and inconsistency of data and limited accurate methods inquantifying ecological values of that ecosystem. Results show that mangrove has the significant ecological values on coastal ecosystem. However, there must be further research t...

  9. Socio-ecosystems and urban habitats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Margarita V. Alario

    2007-01-01

    The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA)—a United Nations effort to assess the health of major global ecosystems—reported that over the past 50 years, humans have changed ecosystems more rapidly and extensively than in any comparable time in history. Around two thirds of the ecosystems services (anything from fresh water to air) are being degraded or used unsustainably...

  10. Indicators for mapping ecosystem services: a review

    OpenAIRE

    EGOH BENIS NCHINE; DRAKOU EVANGELIA; DUNBAR MARTHA BONNET; MAES JOACHIM; WILLEMEN LOUISE

    2012-01-01

    Ecosystem services are the benefits that humans derive from ecosystems, such as food provisioning, water regulating and provisioning, soil productivity, and use of natural areas for recreation. The current challenge is to mainstream ecosystem services into policies and practices in order to ensure the continuous provision of these benefits to humans. The European Union has adopted an EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2020 in which the target of safeguarding ecosystem services is explicitly include...

  11. A tiered approach for ecosystem services mapping

    OpenAIRE

    Grêt-Regamey, Adrienne; Weibel, Bettina; Rabe, Sven-Erik; Burkhard, Benjamin

    2017-01-01

    Mapping ecosystem services delivers essential insights into the spatial characteristics of various goods’ and services’ flows from nature to human society. It has become a central topic of science, policy, business and society – all belonging on functioning ecosystems. This textbook summarises the current state-of-the-art of ecosystem services mapping, related theory and methods, different ecosystem service quantification and modelling approaches as well as practical applications. The book...

  12. The Multifaceted Aspects of Ecosystem Integrity

    OpenAIRE

    Giulio A. De Leo; Simon A. Levin

    1997-01-01

    The need to reduce human impacts on ecosystems creates pressure for adequate response, but the rush to solutions fosters the oversimplification of such notions as sustainable development and ecosystem health. Hence, it favors the tendency to ignore the complexity of natural systems. In this paper, after a brief analysis of the use and abuse of the notion of ecosystem health, we address the problem of a sound definition of ecosystem integrity, critically review the different methodological and...

  13. Fort Collins Science Center: Ecosystem Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowen, Zack

    2004-01-01

    Many challenging natural resource management issues require consideration of a web of interactions among ecosystem components. The spatial and temporal complexity of these ecosystem problems demands an interdisciplinary approach integrating biotic and abiotic processes. The goals of the Ecosystem Dynamics Branch are to provide sound science to aid federal resource managers and use long-term, place-focused research and monitoring on federal lands to advance ecosystem science.

  14. Towards a network ecology of software ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Klaus Marius; Manikas, Konstantinos

    2013-01-01

    of the "network ecology'' approach to the analysis of natural ecosystems. In doing so, we mine the Maven central Java repository and analyze two OSGi ecosystems: Apache Felix and Eclipse Equinox. In particular, we define the concept of an ecosystem ``neighborhood'', apply network ecology metrics...

  15. The biodiversity-dependent ecosystem service debt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isbell, Forest; Tilman, David; Polasky, Stephen; Loreau, Michel

    2015-02-01

    Habitat destruction is driving biodiversity loss in remaining ecosystems, and ecosystem functioning and services often directly depend on biodiversity. Thus, biodiversity loss is likely creating an ecosystem service debt: a gradual loss of biodiversity-dependent benefits that people obtain from remaining fragments of natural ecosystems. Here, we develop an approach for quantifying ecosystem service debts, and illustrate its use to estimate how one anthropogenic driver, habitat destruction, could indirectly diminish one ecosystem service, carbon storage, by creating an extinction debt. We estimate that c. 2-21 Pg C could be gradually emitted globally in remaining ecosystem fragments because of plant species loss caused by nearby habitat destruction. The wide range for this estimate reflects substantial uncertainties in how many plant species will be lost, how much species loss will impact ecosystem functioning and whether plant species loss will decrease soil carbon. Our exploratory analysis suggests that biodiversity-dependent ecosystem service debts can be globally substantial, even when locally small, if they occur diffusely across vast areas of remaining ecosystems. There is substantial value in conserving not only the quantity (area), but also the quality (biodiversity) of natural ecosystems for the sustainable provision of ecosystem services. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  16. Indicators for mapping ecosystem services: a review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Egoh, Benis N; Drakou, Evangelia; Dunbar, Martha B.; Maes, Joachim; Willemen, Louise

    2012-01-01

    Ecosystem services are the benefits that humans derive from ecosystems, such as food provisioning, water regulating and provisioning, soil productivity, and use of natural areas for recreation. The current challenge is to mainstream ecosystem services into policies and practices in order to ensure

  17. Process-Based Thinking in Ecosystem Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, Rebecca C.; Gray, Steven A.; Brooks, Wesley R.; Honwad, Sameer; Hmelo-Silver, Cindy E.

    2013-01-01

    Understanding complex systems such as ecosystems is difficult for young K-12 students, and students' representations of ecosystems are often limited to nebulously defined relationships between macro-level structural components inherent to the ecosystem in focus (rainforest, desert, pond, etc.) instead of generalizing processes across ecosystems…

  18. Towards a national ecosystem assessment in Germany

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Albert, Christian; Neßhöver, Carsten; Schröter, Matthias

    2017-01-01

    We present options for a National Ecosystem Assessment in Germany (NEA-DE) that could inform decision-makers on the state and trends of ecosystems and ecosystem services. Characterizing a NEA-DE, we argue that its cross-sectoral, integrative approach would have the advantages of increased...

  19. Biotic elements of NPP techno-ecosystem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Protasov, A.A.; Silaeva, A.A.

    2013-01-01

    Specific features of biotic elements in the NPP techno-ecosystems were considered and compared with natural ecosystems. Relationships between biotic communities and environmental factors that are specific to the techno-ecosystems were discussed, and the problems of limitation of biological hindrances in operation of equipment, principles of hydrobiological and environmental monitoring were considered.

  20. Defining ecosystem assets for natural capital accounting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hein, Lars; Bagstad, Ken; Edens, Bram; Obst, Carl; Jong, de Rixt; Lesschen, Jan Peter

    2016-01-01

    In natural capital accounting, ecosystems are assets that provide ecosystem services to people. Assets can be measured using both physical and monetary units. In the international System of Environmental-Economic Accounting, ecosystem assets are generally valued on the basis of the net present

  1. Climate and air pollution impacts on habitat suitability of Austrian forest ecosystems.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dirnböck, Thomas; Djukic, Ika; Kitzler, Barbara; Kobler, Johannes; Mol-Dijkstra, Janet P; Posch, Max; Reinds, Gert Jan; Schlutow, Angela; Starlinger, Franz; Wamelink, Wieger G W

    2017-01-01

    Climate change and excess deposition of airborne nitrogen (N) are among the main stressors to floristic biodiversity. One particular concern is the deterioration of valuable habitats such as those protected under the European Habitat Directive. In future, climate-driven shifts (and losses) in the

  2. Climate and air pollution impacts on habitat suitability of Austrian forest ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dirnböck, Thomas; Djukic, Ika; Kitzler, Barbara; Kobler, Johannes; Mol, Janet; Posch, Max; Reinds, Gert Jan; Schlutow, Angela; Starlinger, Franz; Wamelink, Wieger G.W.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change and excess deposition of airborne nitrogen (N) are among the main stressors to floristic biodiversity. One particular concern is the deterioration of valuable habitats such as those protected under the European Habitat Directive. In future, climate-driven shifts (and losses) in the

  3. Effects of the global changes on the aquatic ecosystems in West Europe - role of the plankton communities; Effets des changements globaux sur les ecosystemes aquatiques d'Europe Occidentale - role des communautes planctoniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Souissi, S. [Universite des Sciences et Technologies de Lille, Ecosystem COmplexity REsearch Group, Station Marine de Wimereux, CNRS - FRE 2816 ELICO, 62 - Wimereux (France)

    2007-07-01

    Examination of long-term records of aquatic ecosystems has provided useful information to find out their major driving forces. Understanding the impact of climate change on these ecosystems, the management of their resources and the extrapolation between sites are the main scopes of actual and emerging studies. Such goals can be achieved by inter-site and inter-ecosystem comparisons. This approach was undertaken during our project which has the originality to tackle with marine and freshwater ecosystems. It allowed us to compile and validate several multi-decadal time series of planktonic and other physical driving forces at local and regional scales. Then, the same methodology based on the analysis of the variability of climate indices and biological data across several spatial scales was used. The different ecosystems analyzed here showed clear response to the North Atlantic climate variability. Although the local differences abrupt changes in community composition occurred in all ecosystems in the middle of the years 80. During this period there was also a major shift in climatic conditions during winter and early spring, suggesting an impact of climatic factors. Phenological changes were also observed in plankton communities in all sites. The consequences of the modifications of plankton dynamics on higher trophic levels were also showed. Fluctuations in plankton have resulted in long-term changes in cod recruitment in the North Sea (bottom-up control). On the other hand, both climate change and the improvement of trophic status in Geneva Lake favored the outbreak of whitefish during the years 90. Lower larval mortality and better recruitment are supposed to be linked to faster growth associated with warmer temperatures and better food conditions induced by better temporal overlap between larvae hatching and zooplankton development. (author)

  4. Perception, acquisition and use of ecosystem services: human behavior, and ecosystem management and policy implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanley T. Asah; Anne D. Guerry; Dale J. Blahna; Joshua J. Lawler

    2014-01-01

    Ecosystem services, fundamental to livelihoods and well-being, are reshaping environmental management and policy. However, the behavioral dimensions of ecosystem services and the responses of ordinary people to the management of those services, is less well understood. The ecosystem services framework lends itself to understanding the relationship between ecosystems...

  5. Ecosystemic approaches to land degradation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Puigdefabregas, J.; Barrio, G. del; Hill, J.

    2009-07-01

    Land degradation is recognized as the main outcome of desertification. However available procedures for its assessment are still unsatisfactory because are often too costly for surveying large areas and rely on specific components of the degradation process without being able to integrate them in a unique process. One of the objectives of De Survey project is designing and implementing operational procedures for desertification surveillance, including land degradation. A strategic report was compiled and reproduced here for selecting the most appropriate approaches to the project conditions. The report focuses on using attributes of ecosystem maturity as a natural way to integrate the different drivers of land degradation in simple indices. The review surveys different families of attributes concerned with water and energy fluxes through the ecosystem, its capacity to sustain biomass and net primary productivity, and its capacity to structure the space. Finally, some conclusions are presented about the choice criteria of the different approaches in the framne of operational applications. (Author) 20 refs.

  6. Ecosystemic approaches to land degradation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Puigdefabregas, J.; Barrio, G. del; Hill, J.

    2009-01-01

    Land degradation is recognized as the main outcome of desertification. However available procedures for its assessment are still unsatisfactory because are often too costly for surveying large areas and rely on specific components of the degradation process without being able to integrate them in a unique process. One of the objectives of De Survey project is designing and implementing operational procedures for desertification surveillance, including land degradation. A strategic report was compiled and reproduced here for selecting the most appropriate approaches to the project conditions. The report focuses on using attributes of ecosystem maturity as a natural way to integrate the different drivers of land degradation in simple indices. The review surveys different families of attributes concerned with water and energy fluxes through the ecosystem, its capacity to sustain biomass and net primary productivity, and its capacity to structure the space. Finally, some conclusions are presented about the choice criteria of the different approaches in the framne of operational applications. (Author) 20 refs.

  7. Interaction webs in arctic ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Niels M.; Hardwick, Bess; Gilg, Olivier

    2017-01-01

    How species interact modulate their dynamics, their response to environmental change, and ultimately the functioning and stability of entire communities. Work conducted at Zackenberg, Northeast Greenland, has changed our view on how networks of arctic biotic interactions are structured, how...... they vary in time, and how they are changing with current environmental change: firstly, the high arctic interaction webs are much more complex than previously envisaged, and with a structure mainly dictated by its arthropod component. Secondly, the dynamics of species within these webs reflect changes...... that the combination of long-term, ecosystem-based monitoring, and targeted research projects offers the most fruitful basis for understanding and predicting the future of arctic ecosystems....

  8. Multivariate Bioclimatic Ecosystem Change Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-02-06

    course the sandy soils of the Sandhills will not migrate. This observation suggests that a new nomenclature for ecosystems must be developed if...Coast Sandhills. At that time period, not only will the climate be similar, but the soil character will also be similar. Therefore about the year 2115...Disaggregation of global circulation model outputs decision and policy analysis. Working Paper No. 2. Cali, Colombia : International Centre for Tropical

  9. Trialogue model for ecosystem governance.

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Hattingh, J

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available form and timescale to ensure good governance. In essence, good governance promotes democratic management of ecosystems and, by inference, prudentwater resourcemanagement. Consequently, it is likely that the type of governance that occurs most often... that, unless the imperative for civic science to support democratic governance is institutionalised through policy and strategy, it is unlikely that there will be sufficient human and financial investment in civic science as a means to promote...

  10. Blacklist Ecosystem Analysis Update: 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-01

    example, we checked to see if any of the blacklisted IP addresses were known sinkhole IP addresses. This information would essentially invalidate the...indicator as an indicator of malicious activity, since sinkholes are operated by CERTCC-2014-82 4 Blacklist Ecosystem Analysis CERT/CC network defenders who...clean up and collect intelligence on threats. Only one list out of 67, LI_3, contained any sinkhole IP addresses and that list contained only 10. All

  11. Diversity, Adaptability and Ecosystem Resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keribin, Rozenn; Friend, Andrew

    2013-04-01

    Our ability to predict climate change and anticipate its impacts depends on Earth System Models (ESMs) and their ability to account for the high number of interacting components of the Earth System and to gauge both their influence on the climate and the feedbacks they induce. The land carbon cycle is a component of ESMs that is still poorly constrained. Since the 1990s dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) have become the main tool through which we understand the interactions between plant ecosystems and the climate. While DGVMs have made it clear the impacts of climate change on vegetation could be dramatic, predicting the dieback of rainforests and massive carbon losses from various ecosystems, they are highly variable both in their composition and their predictions. Their treatment of plant diversity and competition in particular vary widely and are based on highly-simplified relationships that do not account for the multiple levels of diversity and adaptability found in real plant ecosystems. The aim of this GREENCYCLES II project is to extend an individual-based DGVM to treat the diversity of physiologies found in plant communities and evaluate their effect if any on the ecosystem's transient dynamics and resilience. In the context of the InterSectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), an initiative coordinated by a team at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) that aims to provide fast-track global impact assessments for the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report, we compare 6 vegetation models including 4 DGVMs under different climate change scenarios and analyse how the very different treatments of plant diversity and interactions from one model to the next affect the models' results. We then investigate a new, more mechanistic method of incorporating plant diversity into the DGVM "Hybrid" based on ecological tradeoffs mediated by plant traits and individual-based competition for light.

  12. Effects of the global changes on the aquatic ecosystems in West Europe - role of the plankton communities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Souissi, S.

    2007-01-01

    Examination of long-term records of aquatic ecosystems has provided useful information to find out their major driving forces. Understanding the impact of climate change on these ecosystems, the management of their resources and the extrapolation between sites are the main scopes of actual and emerging studies. Such goals can be achieved by inter-site and inter-ecosystem comparisons. This approach was undertaken during our project which has the originality to tackle with marine and freshwater ecosystems. It allowed us to compile and validate several multi-decadal time series of planktonic and other physical driving forces at local and regional scales. Then, the same methodology based on the analysis of the variability of climate indices and biological data across several spatial scales was used. The different ecosystems analyzed here showed clear response to the North Atlantic climate variability. Although the local differences abrupt changes in community composition occurred in all ecosystems in the middle of the years 80. During this period there was also a major shift in climatic conditions during winter and early spring, suggesting an impact of climatic factors. Phenological changes were also observed in plankton communities in all sites. The consequences of the modifications of plankton dynamics on higher trophic levels were also showed. Fluctuations in plankton have resulted in long-term changes in cod recruitment in the North Sea (bottom-up control). On the other hand, both climate change and the improvement of trophic status in Geneva Lake favored the outbreak of whitefish during the years 90. Lower larval mortality and better recruitment are supposed to be linked to faster growth associated with warmer temperatures and better food conditions induced by better temporal overlap between larvae hatching and zooplankton development. (author)

  13. The impact on ocean ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seymour, A.H.

    1982-01-01

    A nuclear war would have less impact on ocean ecosystems than on terrestrial systems. But damage to coastal regions and estuaries might be substantial. This chapter discusses the distribution, effects, and hazards of fallout radionuclides in the ocean, and attempts to assess the impact on ocean ecosystems of dust particles in the atmosphere, ozone depletion, and temperature change following a nuclear war. The information offers some insight into the impact of such a war, but does not provide definitive predictions. Two other consequences, however, do have the potential for devastating effects upon marine ecosystems. It has been predicted that a 100-fold reduction in solar light intensity at the earth's surface due to particles in the atmosphere is possible; this would result in death to most of the phytoplankton and herbivorous zooplankton in more than half of the oceans of the Northern Hemisphere, and under some circumstances, depletion of ozone in the stratosphere by NOsub(X) could increase UV radiation at the earth's surface, the magnitude of the change being sufficient to seriously reduce the populations of organisms at the base of the food web. Temperature changes would be of little consequence. (U.K.)

  14. Force response of an equilibrium magnetized plasma to an abrupt change in the heating power as a manifestation of the Le Chatelier principle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Danilkin, I.S.

    1998-01-01

    It is shown that plasma that is in a force equilibrium with a magnetic field (τ f >>τ A,S ) responds to an abrupt (τ f E ) change in the heating power according to the Le Chatelier principle: it completely balances the effect of this change with respect to transverse degrees of freedom, i.e., at a level of two-thirds of the change in the net heating power. Here, τ A,S , τ f , and τ E are, respectively, the characteristic Alfven (or ion-sound) inertial time, the time during which the heating power changes, and the energy confinement time

  15. Ecosystem services science, practice, and policy: Perspectives from ACES, A Community on Ecosystem Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shapiro, Carl D.; Arthaud, Greg; Casey, Frank; Hogan, Dianna M.

    2015-01-01

    Ecosystem services are at a crossroad. The natural capital needed to produce them is diminishing (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005). At the same time, the science relating to their identification, production, and valuation is advancing. Examples of ecosystem services applications are abundant in the literature. In addition, the concept of ecosystem services and its applications are attracting attention and are becoming more visible. The concept of ecosystem services, however, is still not routinely applied to many natural resource management decisions.

  16. Nitrogen cycling process rates across urban ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reisinger, Alexander J; Groffman, Peter M; Rosi-Marshall, Emma J

    2016-09-21

    Nitrogen (N) pollution of freshwater, estuarine, and marine ecosystems is widespread and has numerous environmental and economic impacts. A portion of this excess N comes from urban watersheds comprised of natural and engineered ecosystems which can alter downstream N export. Studies of urban N cycling have focused on either specific ecosystems or on watershed-scale mass balances. Comparisons of specific N transformations across ecosystems are required to contextualize rates from individual studies. Here we reviewed urban N cycling in terrestrial, aquatic, and engineered ecosystems, and compared N processing in these urban ecosystem types to native reference ecosystems. We found that net N mineralization and net nitrification rates were enhanced in urban forests and riparian zones relative to reference ecosystems. Denitrification was highly variable across urban ecosystem types, but no significant differences were found between urban and reference denitrification rates. When focusing on urban streams, ammonium uptake was more rapid than nitrate uptake in urban streams. Additionally, reduction of stormwater runoff coupled with potential decreases in N concentration suggests that green infrastructure may reduce downstream N export. Despite multiple environmental stressors in urban environments, ecosystems within urban watersheds can process and transform N at rates similar to or higher than reference ecosystems. © FEMS 2016. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  17. Merging Platform Ecosystems in Technology Acquisitions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dowie, Jamie; Henningsson, Stefan; Kude, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    of the merging companies. Given the increasing importance of platforms and value co-creation with third-party providers for companies making technology acquisitions, we complement existing literature by reframing the analysis of technology acquisitions to include the merger of the broader partner ecosystems....... Specifically, we draw on theories of ecosystem governance to analyze how ecosystem tensions unfolded during the ecosystem merger and how the acquirer governed these tensions in SAP SE’s acquisition of the e-commerce provider Hybris AG. Our findings suggest that the governance of ecosystem tensions...... is an important aspect of managing technology acquisitions. We identify the pre-acquisition relation between the acquired company’s ecosystem partners and the acquirer as an important context factor for explaining how a partner company is exposed to the ecosystem tensions during the merger....

  18. Implementing the optimal provision of ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polasky, Stephen; Lewis, David J; Plantinga, Andrew J; Nelson, Erik

    2014-04-29

    Many ecosystem services are public goods whose provision depends on the spatial pattern of land use. The pattern of land use is often determined by the decisions of multiple private landowners. Increasing the provision of ecosystem services, though beneficial for society as a whole, may be costly to private landowners. A regulator interested in providing incentives to landowners for increased provision of ecosystem services often lacks complete information on landowners' costs. The combination of spatially dependent benefits and asymmetric cost information means that the optimal provision of ecosystem services cannot be achieved using standard regulatory or payment for ecosystem services approaches. Here we show that an auction that sets payments between landowners and the regulator for the increased value of ecosystem services with conservation provides incentives for landowners to truthfully reveal cost information, and allows the regulator to implement the optimal provision of ecosystem services, even in the case with spatially dependent benefits and asymmetric information.

  19. Controls on winter ecosystem respiration in temperate and boreal ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Wang

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Winter CO2 fluxes represent an important component of the annual carbon budget in northern ecosystems. Understanding winter respiration processes and their responses to climate change is also central to our ability to assess terrestrial carbon cycle and climate feedbacks in the future. However, the factors influencing the spatial and temporal patterns of winter ecosystem respiration (Reco of northern ecosystems are poorly understood. For this reason, we analyzed eddy covariance flux data from 57 ecosystem sites ranging from ~35° N to ~70° N. Deciduous forests were characterized by the highest winter Reco rates (0.90 ± 0.39 g C m−2 d−1, when winter is defined as the period during which daily air temperature remains below 0 °C. By contrast, arctic wetlands had the lowest winter Reco rates (0.02 ± 0.02 g C m−2 d−1. Mixed forests, evergreen needle-leaved forests, grasslands, croplands and boreal wetlands were characterized by intermediate winter Reco rates (g C m−2 d−1 of 0.70(±0.33, 0.60(±0.38, 0.62(±0.43, 0.49(±0.22 and 0.27(±0.08, respectively. Our cross site analysis showed that winter air (Tair and soil (Tsoil temperature played a dominating role in determining the spatial patterns of winter Reco in both forest and managed ecosystems (grasslands and croplands. Besides temperature, the seasonal amplitude of the leaf area index (LAI, inferred from satellite observation, or growing season gross primary productivity, which we use here as a proxy for the amount of recent carbon available for Reco in the subsequent winter, played a marginal role in winter CO2 emissions from forest ecosystems. We found that winter Reco sensitivity to temperature variation across space (

  20. Uncovering ecosystem service bundles through social preferences.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Berta Martín-López

    Full Text Available Ecosystem service assessments have increasingly been used to support environmental management policies, mainly based on biophysical and economic indicators. However, few studies have coped with the social-cultural dimension of ecosystem services, despite being considered a research priority. We examined how ecosystem service bundles and trade-offs emerge from diverging social preferences toward ecosystem services delivered by various types of ecosystems in Spain. We conducted 3,379 direct face-to-face questionnaires in eight different case study sites from 2007 to 2011. Overall, 90.5% of the sampled population recognized the ecosystem's capacity to deliver services. Formal studies, environmental behavior, and gender variables influenced the probability of people recognizing the ecosystem's capacity to provide services. The ecosystem services most frequently perceived by people were regulating services; of those, air purification held the greatest importance. However, statistical analysis showed that socio-cultural factors and the conservation management strategy of ecosystems (i.e., National Park, Natural Park, or a non-protected area have an effect on social preferences toward ecosystem services. Ecosystem service trade-offs and bundles were identified by analyzing social preferences through multivariate analysis (redundancy analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis. We found a clear trade-off among provisioning services (and recreational hunting versus regulating services and almost all cultural services. We identified three ecosystem service bundles associated with the conservation management strategy and the rural-urban gradient. We conclude that socio-cultural preferences toward ecosystem services can serve as a tool to identify relevant services for people, the factors underlying these social preferences, and emerging ecosystem service bundles and trade-offs.

  1. A comparative study of scale-adaptive and large-eddy simulations of highly swirling turbulent flow through an abrupt expansion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Javadi, Ardalan; Nilsson, Håkan

    2014-01-01

    The strongly swirling turbulent flow through an abrupt expansion is investigated using highly resolved LES and SAS, to shed more light on the stagnation region and the helical vortex breakdown. The vortex breakdown in an abrupt expansion resembles the so-called vortex rope occurring in hydro power draft tubes. It is known that the large-scale helical vortex structures can be captured by regular RANS turbulence models. However, the spurious suppression of the small-scale structures should be avoided using less diffusive methods. The present work compares LES and SAS results with the experimental measurement of Dellenback et al. (1988). The computations are conducted using a general non-orthogonal finite-volume method with a fully collocated storage available in the OpenFOAM-2.1.x CFD code. The dynamics of the flow is studied at two Reynolds numbers, Re=6.0×10 4 and Re=10 5 , at the almost constant high swirl numbers of Sr=1.16 and Sr=1.23, respectively. The time-averaged velocity and pressure fields and the root mean square of the velocity fluctuations, are captured and investigated qualitatively. The flow with the lower Reynolds number gives a much weaker outburst although the frequency of the structures seems to be constant for the plateau swirl number

  2. Study on mobility-disadvantage group' risk perception and coping behaviors of abrupt geological hazards in coastal rural area of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Anping

    2016-07-01

    China is a country highly vulnerable to abrupt geological hazards. The present study aims to investigate disaster preparedness and perception of abrupt geological disasters (such as rock avalanches, landslide, mud-rock flows etc) in mobility-disadvantage group living in coastal rural area of China. This research is to take into account all factors regarding disasters and to design the questionnaires accordingly. Two debris flow vulnerable townships are selected as study areas including Hedi Township in Qinyuan County and Xianxi Township in Yueqing City which are located in East China's Zhejiang Province. SPSS was applied to conduct descriptive analysis, which results in an effective empirical model for evacuation behavior of the disable groups. The result of this study shows mobility-disadvantage groups' awareness on disaster prevention and mitigation is poor and their knowledge about basic theory and emergency response is limited. Errors and distortions in public consciousness on disaster prevention and mitigation stimulate the development of areas with frequent disasters, which will expose more life and property to danger and aggravate the vulnerability of hazard bearing body. In conclusion, before drafting emergency planning, the government should consider more the disable group's expectations and actual evacuation behavior than the request of the situation to ensure the planning is good to work. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Longitudinal changes in reproductive hormones and menstrual cyclicity in cynomolgus monkeys during strenuous exercise training: abrupt transition to exercise-induced amenorrhea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, N I; Caston-Balderrama, A L; Helmreich, D L; Parfitt, D B; Nosbisch, C; Cameron, J L

    2001-06-01

    Cross-sectional studies of exercise-induced reproductive dysfunction have documented a high proportion of menstrual cycle disturbances in women involved in strenuous exercise training. However, longitudinal studies have been needed to examine individual susceptibility to exercise-induced reproductive dysfunction and to elucidate the progression of changes in reproductive function that occur with strenuous exercise training. Using the female cynomolgus monkey (Macaca fascicularis), we documented changes in menstrual cyclicity and patterns of LH, FSH, estradiol, and progesterone secretion as the animals developed exercise-induced amenorrhea. As monkeys gradually increased running to 12.3 +/- 0.9 km/day, body weight did not change significantly although food intake remained constant. The time spent training until amenorrhea developed varied widely among animals (7-24 months; mean = 14.3 +/- 2.2 months) and was not correlated with initial body weight, training distance, or food intake. Consistent changes in function of the reproductive axis occurred abruptly, one to two menstrual cycles before the development of amenorrhea. These included significant declines in plasma reproductive hormone concentrations, an increase in follicular phase length, and a decrease in luteal phase progesterone secretion. These data document a high level of interindividual variability in the development of exercise-induced reproductive dysfunction, delineate the progression of changes in reproductive hormone secretion that occur with exercise training, and illustrate an abrupt transition from normal cyclicity to an amenorrheic state in exercising individuals, that is not necessarily associated with weight loss.

  4. Rapid-Sequence Intubation in the Left-Lateral Tilt Position in a Pregnant Woman with Premature Placental Abruption Utilizing a Videolaryngoscope

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenta Nakao

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Case - A 24-year-old pregnant woman was admitted to our hospital with decreased fetal heart rate. Obstetric examination revealed premature placental abruption; emergent caesarean section was planned under general anesthesia. On entering the operating room, the patient showed severe vital sign deterioration (blood pressure, 75/45 mm Hg; heart rate, 142 beats per minute. As left uterine displacement may worsen the premature placental abruption, the patient was placed in the left-lateral tilt position by rotating the operating table to release compression on the inferior vena cava by theuterus. To avoid circulatory collapse, rapid-sequence intubation was performed in this position. Tracheal intubation was performed with the Pentax-AWS Airwayscope (AWS videolaryngoscope, AWS; HOYA, Japan to obtain a good laryngeal view and minimize stress from laryngoscopy. After sufficient oxygenation, 120 mg of thiopental was administered. A second anesthesiologist performed cricoid pressure and 50 mg of rocuronium was administered after confirming loss of consciousness. This was followed by insertion of the AWS with a thin intlock into the mouth. Tracheal intubation was performed uneventfully. Discussion - Rapid-sequence intubation in the left-lateral tilted position with the AWS videolaryngoscope may be beneficial for pregnant women with vital sign deterioration.

  5. Ecosystem service valuations of mangrove ecosystems to inform decision making and future valuation exercises.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nibedita Mukherjee

    Full Text Available The valuation of ecosystem services is a complex process as it includes several dimensions (ecological, socio-cultural and economic and not all of these can be quantified in monetary units. The aim of this paper is to conduct an ecosystem services valuation study for mangroves ecosystems, the results of which can be used to inform governance and management of mangroves. We used an expert-based participatory approach (the Delphi technique to identify, categorize and rank the various ecosystem services provided by mangrove ecosystems at a global scale. Subsequently we looked for evidence in the existing ecosystem services literature for monetary valuations of these ecosystem service categories throughout the biogeographic distribution of mangroves. We then compared the relative ranking of ecosystem service categories between the monetary valuations and the expert based analysis. The experts identified 16 ecosystem service categories, six of which are not adequately represented in the literature. There was no significant correlation between the expert based valuation (the Delphi technique and the economic valuation, indicating that the scope of valuation of ecosystem services needs to be broadened. Acknowledging this diversity in different valuation approaches, and developing methodological frameworks that foster the pluralism of values in ecosystem services research, are crucial for maintaining the credibility of ecosystem services valuation. To conclude, we use the findings of our dual approach to valuation to make recommendations on how to assess and manage the ecosystem services provided by mangrove ecosystems.

  6. Ecosystem services as a common language for coastal ecosystem-based management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granek, Elise F; Polasky, Stephen; Kappel, Carrie V; Reed, Denise J; Stoms, David M; Koch, Evamaria W; Kennedy, Chris J; Cramer, Lori A; Hacker, Sally D; Barbier, Edward B; Aswani, Shankar; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Perillo, Gerardo M E; Silliman, Brian R; Muthiga, Nyawira; Bael, David; Wolanski, Eric

    2010-02-01

    Ecosystem-based management is logistically and politically challenging because ecosystems are inherently complex and management decisions affect a multitude of groups. Coastal ecosystems, which lie at the interface between marine and terrestrial ecosystems and provide an array of ecosystem services to different groups, aptly illustrate these challenges. Successful ecosystem-based management of coastal ecosystems requires incorporating scientific information and the knowledge and views of interested parties into the decision-making process. Estimating the provision of ecosystem services under alternative management schemes offers a systematic way to incorporate biogeophysical and socioeconomic information and the views of individuals and groups in the policy and management process. Employing ecosystem services as a common language to improve the process of ecosystem-based management presents both benefits and difficulties. Benefits include a transparent method for assessing trade-offs associated with management alternatives, a common set of facts and common currency on which to base negotiations, and improved communication among groups with competing interests or differing worldviews. Yet challenges to this approach remain, including predicting how human interventions will affect ecosystems, how such changes will affect the provision of ecosystem services, and how changes in service provision will affect the welfare of different groups in society. In a case study from Puget Sound, Washington, we illustrate the potential of applying ecosystem services as a common language for ecosystem-based management.

  7. Ecosystem service valuations of mangrove ecosystems to inform decision making and future valuation exercises.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukherjee, Nibedita; Sutherland, William J; Dicks, Lynn; Hugé, Jean; Koedam, Nico; Dahdouh-Guebas, Farid

    2014-01-01

    The valuation of ecosystem services is a complex process as it includes several dimensions (ecological, socio-cultural and economic) and not all of these can be quantified in monetary units. The aim of this paper is to conduct an ecosystem services valuation study for mangroves ecosystems, the results of which can be used to inform governance and management of mangroves. We used an expert-based participatory approach (the Delphi technique) to identify, categorize and rank the various ecosystem services provided by mangrove ecosystems at a global scale. Subsequently we looked for evidence in the existing ecosystem services literature for monetary valuations of these ecosystem service categories throughout the biogeographic distribution of mangroves. We then compared the relative ranking of ecosystem service categories between the monetary valuations and the expert based analysis. The experts identified 16 ecosystem service categories, six of which are not adequately represented in the literature. There was no significant correlation between the expert based valuation (the Delphi technique) and the economic valuation, indicating that the scope of valuation of ecosystem services needs to be broadened. Acknowledging this diversity in different valuation approaches, and developing methodological frameworks that foster the pluralism of values in ecosystem services research, are crucial for maintaining the credibility of ecosystem services valuation. To conclude, we use the findings of our dual approach to valuation to make recommendations on how to assess and manage the ecosystem services provided by mangrove ecosystems.

  8. Predicting Ecosystem Alliances Using Landscape Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shruti Satsangi

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Previous articles in the TIM Review have covered various aspects of the concept of business ecosystems, from the types of ecosystems to keystone strategy, to different member roles and value co-creation. While there is no dearth of suggested best practices that organizations should follow as ecosystem members, it can be difficult to apply these insights into actionable steps for them to take. This is especially true when the ecosystem members already have a prior history of cooperation or competition with each other, as opposed to where a new ecosystem is created. Landscape theory, a political science approach to predicting coalition formation and strategic alliances, can be a useful complement to ecosystems studies by providing a tool to evaluate the best possible alliance options for an organization, given information about itself and the other companies in the system. As shown in the case study of mobile device manufacturers choosing platform providers in the mobile ecosystem, this tool is highly flexible and customizable, with more data providing a more accurate view of the alliances in the ecosystem. At the same time, with even basic parameters, companies can glean significant information about which coalitions will best serve their interest and overall standing within the ecosystem. This article shows the synergies between landscape theory and an ecosystems approach and offers a practical, actionable way in which to analyze individual member benefits.

  9. Pteropods in Southern Ocean ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, B. P. V.; Pakhomov, E. A.; Hosie, G. W.; Siegel, V.; Ward, P.; Bernard, K.

    2008-09-01

    To date, little research has been carried out on pelagic gastropod molluscs (pteropods) in Southern Ocean ecosystems. However, recent predictions are that, due to acidification resulting from a business as usual approach to CO 2 emissions (IS92a), Southern Ocean surface waters may begin to become uninhabitable for aragonite shelled thecosome pteropods by 2050. To gain insight into the potential impact that this would have on Southern Ocean ecosystems, we have here synthesized available data on pteropod distributions and densities, assessed current knowledge of pteropod ecology, and highlighted knowledge gaps and directions for future research on this zooplankton group. Six species of pteropod are typical of the Southern Ocean south of the Sub-Tropical Convergence, including the four Thecosomes Limacina helicina antarctica, Limacina retroversa australis, Clio pyramidata, and Clio piatkowskii, and two Gymnosomes Clione limacina antarctica and Spongiobranchaea australis. Limacina retroversa australis dominated pteropod densities north of the Polar Front (PF), averaging 60 ind m -3 (max = 800 ind m -3) and 11% of total zooplankton at the Prince Edward Islands. South of the PF L. helicina antarctica predominated, averaging 165 ind m -3 (max = 2681 ind m -3) and up to >35% of total zooplankton at South Georgia, and up to 1397 ind m -3 and 63% of total zooplankton in the Ross Sea. Combined pteropods contributed 40% of community grazing impact. Further research is required to quantify diet selectivity, the effect of phytoplankton composition on growth and reproductive success, and the role of carnivory in thecosomes. Life histories are a significant knowledge gap for Southern Ocean pteropods, a single study having been completed for L. retroversa australis, making population studies a priority for this group. Pteropods appear to be important in biogeochemical cycling, thecosome shells contributing >50% to carbonate flux in the deep ocean south of the PF. Pteropods may also

  10. Environmental Impacts—Marine Ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brander, Keith; Ottersen, Geir; Bakker, J.P.

    2016-01-01

    This chapter presents a review of what is known about the impacts of climate change on the biota (plankton, benthos, fish, seabirds and marine mammals) of the North Sea. Examples show how the changing North Sea environment is affecting biological processes and organisation at all scales, including...... the physiology, reproduction, growth, survival, behaviour and transport of individuals; the distribution, dynamics and evolution of populations; and the trophic structure and coupling of ecosystems. These complex responses can be detected because there are detailed long-term biological and environmental records...

  11. Millennium ecosystem assessment: research needs

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Carpenter, SR

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available changes. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Research Needs ECOLOGY C r o s s - s c a l e p r o c e s s e s Human well-being Healt h, ba sic ne eds, incom e, sec urity, freed om, s ocial relat ions Direct drivers... Foundation, Los Altos, CA 94022, USA. †Author for correspondence. E-mail: hmooney@stanford.edu Stephen R. Carpenter,1 Ruth DeFries,2 Thomas Dietz,3 Harold A. Mooney,4† Stephen Polasky,5 Walter V. Reid,6* Robert J. Scholes7 Enhanced online at www...

  12. A new method for large-scale assessment of change in ecosystem functioning in relation to land degradation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horion, Stephanie; Ivits, Eva; Verzandvoort, Simone; Fensholt, Rasmus

    2017-04-01

    Ongoing pressures on European land are manifold with extreme climate events and non-sustainable use of land resources being amongst the most important drivers altering the functioning of the ecosystems. The protection and conservation of European natural capital is one of the key objectives of the 7th Environmental Action Plan (EAP). The EAP stipulates that European land must be managed in a sustainable way by 2020 and the UN Sustainable development goals define a Land Degradation Neutral world as one of the targets. This implies that land degradation (LD) assessment of European ecosystems must be performed repeatedly allowing for the assessment of the current state of LD as well as changes compared to a baseline adopted by the UNCCD for the objective of land degradation neutrality. However, scientifically robust methods are still lacking for large-scale assessment of LD and repeated consistent mapping of the state of terrestrial ecosystems. Historical land degradation assessments based on various methods exist, but methods are generally non-replicable or difficult to apply at continental scale (Allan et al. 2007). The current lack of research methods applicable at large spatial scales is notably caused by the non-robust definition of LD, the scarcity of field data on LD, as well as the complex inter-play of the processes driving LD (Vogt et al., 2011). Moreover, the link between LD and changes in land use (how land use changes relates to change in vegetation productivity and ecosystem functioning) is not straightforward. In this study we used the segmented trend method developed by Horion et al. (2016) for large-scale systematic assessment of hotspots of change in ecosystem functioning in relation to LD. This method alleviates shortcomings of widely used linear trend model that does not account for abrupt change, nor adequately captures the actual changes in ecosystem functioning (de Jong et al. 2013; Horion et al. 2016). Here we present a new methodology for

  13. Comparing the impact of the 2003 and 2010 heatwaves on Net Ecosystem Production in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastos, A. F.; Gouveia, C. M.; Trigo, R. M.

    2012-12-01

    ), The hot summer of 2010: Redrawing the temperature record map of Europe, Science, 332 (6026), 220 224, doi:10.1126/science.1201224. Ciais, P., et al. (2005), Europe-wide reduction in primary productivity caused by the heat and drought in 2003, Nature, 437 (7058), 529-533. Nemani, R. R., C. D. Keeling, H. Hashimoto, W. M. Jolly, S. C. Piper, C. J. Tucker, R. B. Myneni, and S. W. Running (2003), Climate-driven increases in global terrestrial net primary production from 1982 to 1999, Science, 300 (5625), 156-1563, doi:10.1126/science.1082750. Zhao, M., and S. W. Running (2010), Drought-induced reduction in global terrestrial net primary production from 2000 through 2009, Science, 329 (5994), 940-943, doi:10.1126/science.1192666.

  14. Poverty, development, and Himalayan ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandhu, Harpinder; Sandhu, Sukhbir

    2015-05-01

    The Himalayas are rich in biodiversity but vulnerable to anthropogenic pressures. They are also host to growing number of rural poor who are dependent on forest and ecosystem services for their livelihood. Local and global efforts to integrate poverty alleviation and biodiversity conservation in the Himalayas remain elusive so far. In this work, we highlight two key impediments in achieving sustainable development in the Himalayas. On the positive side, we also highlight the work of Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment (ATREE), a research organization based in India that seeks to integrate biodiversity concerns with livelihood security. For impediments, we draw on two examples from the Darjeeling district, India, in Eastern Himalayan region to illustrate how development organizations are failing to simultaneously address poverty and environmental issues. Based on the success of ATREE, we then propose a conceptual framework to integrate livelihood generating activities with sustainable and equitable development agenda. We recommend developing a Hindu-Kush Himalayan Ecosystem Services Network in the region to formulate a strategy for further action. We conclude by offering measures to address the challenge of integrating livelihood and environment issues through this network.

  15. Nitrogen saturation in stream ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earl, Stevan R; Valett, H Maurice; Webster, Jackson R

    2006-12-01

    The concept of nitrogen (N) saturation has organized the assessment of N loading in terrestrial ecosystems. Here we extend the concept to lotic ecosystems by coupling Michaelis-Menten kinetics and nutrient spiraling. We propose a series of saturation response types, which may be used to characterize the proximity of streams to N saturation. We conducted a series of short-term N releases using a tracer (15NO3-N) to measure uptake. Experiments were conducted in streams spanning a gradient of background N concentration. Uptake increased in four of six streams as NO3-N was incrementally elevated, indicating that these streams were not saturated. Uptake generally corresponded to Michaelis-Menten kinetics but deviated from the model in two streams where some other growth-critical factor may have been limiting. Proximity to saturation was correlated to background N concentration but was better predicted by the ratio of dissolved inorganic N (DIN) to soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), suggesting phosphorus limitation in several high-N streams. Uptake velocity, a reflection of uptake efficiency, declined nonlinearly with increasing N amendment in all streams. At the same time, uptake velocity was highest in the low-N streams. Our conceptual model of N transport, uptake, and uptake efficiency suggests that, while streams may be active sites of N uptake on the landscape, N saturation contributes to nonlinear changes in stream N dynamics that correspond to decreased uptake efficiency.

  16. Ecosystem Based Business Model of Smart Grid

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundgaard, Morten Raahauge; Ma, Zheng; Jørgensen, Bo Nørregaard

    2015-01-01

    This paper tries to investigate the ecosystem based business model in a smart grid infrastructure and the potential of value capture in the highly complex macro infrastructure such as smart grid. This paper proposes an alternative perspective to study the smart grid business ecosystem to support...... the infrastructural challenges, such as the interoperability of business components for smart grid. So far little research has explored the business ecosystem in the smart grid concept. The study on the smart grid with the theory of business ecosystem may open opportunities to understand market catalysts. This study...... contributes an understanding of business ecosystem applicable for smart grid. Smart grid infrastructure is an intricate business ecosystem, which have several intentions to deliver the value proposition and what it should be. The findings help to identify and capture value from markets....

  17. Biodiversity and Resilience of Ecosystem Functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliver, Tom H; Heard, Matthew S; Isaac, Nick J B; Roy, David B; Procter, Deborah; Eigenbrod, Felix; Freckleton, Rob; Hector, Andy; Orme, C David L; Petchey, Owen L; Proença, Vânia; Raffaelli, David; Suttle, K Blake; Mace, Georgina M; Martín-López, Berta; Woodcock, Ben A; Bullock, James M

    2015-11-01

    Accelerating rates of environmental change and the continued loss of global biodiversity threaten functions and services delivered by ecosystems. Much ecosystem monitoring and management is focused on the provision of ecosystem functions and services under current environmental conditions, yet this could lead to inappropriate management guidance and undervaluation of the importance of biodiversity. The maintenance of ecosystem functions and services under substantial predicted future environmental change (i.e., their 'resilience') is crucial. Here we identify a range of mechanisms underpinning the resilience of ecosystem functions across three ecological scales. Although potentially less important in the short term, biodiversity, encompassing variation from within species to across landscapes, may be crucial for the longer-term resilience of ecosystem functions and the services that they underpin. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Linking ecosystem services with cultural landscape research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schaich, Harald; Biding, Claudia; Plieninger, Tobias

    2010-01-01

    The concept of ecosystem services facilitates the valuation of the multiple services from ecosystems and landscapes, the identification of trade-offs between different land use scenarios, and also informs decision making in land use planning. Unfortunately, cultural services have been mostly...... neglected within the ecosystem services framework. This could result in trade-off assessments which are biased and mislead ecosystem management and landscape planning. However, cultural landscape research approaches have proven valuable in the assessment of different nonmaterial landscape values...... and cultural services. In this paper, we compare the objectives, approaches, and methodologies adopted by ecosystem services research and cultural landscape research through a bibliographic research. Both research communities investigate the human dimension of ecosystems and landscapes and, hence, study...

  19. A Size-based Ecosystem Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravn-Jonsen, Lars

     Ecosystem Management requires models that can link the ecosystem level to the operation level. This link can be created by an ecosystem production model. Because the function of the individual fish in the marine ecosystem, seen in trophic context, is closely related to its size, the model groups...... fish according to size. The model summarises individual predation events into ecosystem level properties, and thereby uses the law of conversation of mass as a framework. This paper provides the background, the conceptual model, basic assumptions, integration of fishing activities, mathematical...... the predator--prey interaction, (ii) mass balance in the predator--prey allocation, and (iii) mortality and somatic growth as a consequence of the predator--prey allocation. By incorporating additional assumptions, the model can be extended to other dimensions of the ecosystem, for example, space or species...

  20. National Ecosystem Assessments in Europe: A Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schröter, Matthias; Albert, Christian; Marques, Alexandra; Tobon, Wolke; Lavorel, Sandra; Maes, Joachim; Brown, Claire; Klotz, Stefan; Bonn, Aletta

    2016-01-01

    Abstract National ecosystem assessments form an essential knowledge base for safeguarding biodiversity and ecosystem services. We analyze eight European (sub-)national ecosystem assessments (Portugal, United Kingdom, Spain, Norway, Flanders, Netherlands, Finland, and Germany) and compare their objectives, political context, methods, and operationalization. We observed remarkable differences in breadth of the assessment, methods employed, variety of services considered, policy mandates, and funding mechanisms. Biodiversity and ecosystem services are mainly assessed independently, with biodiversity conceptualized as underpinning services, as a source of conflict with services, or as a service in itself. Recommendations derived from our analysis for future ecosystem assessments include the needs to improve the common evidence base, to advance the mapping of services, to consider international flows of services, and to connect more strongly to policy questions. Although the context specificity of national ecosystem assessments is acknowledged as important, a greater harmonization across assessments could help to better inform common European policies and future pan-regional assessments. PMID:28533561