WorldWideScience

Sample records for abrupt climate change

  1. Abrupt change in climate and climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Pitman

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available First, we review the evidence that abrupt climate changes have occurred in the past and then demonstrate that climate models have developing capacity to simulate many of these changes. In particular, the processes by which changes in the ocean circulation drive abrupt changes appear to be captured by climate models to a degree that is encouraging. The evidence that past changes in the ocean have driven abrupt change in terrestrial systems is also convincing, but these processes are only just beginning to be included in climate models. Second, we explore the likelihood that climate models can capture those abrupt changes in climate that may occur in the future due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. We note that existing evidence indicates that a major collapse of the thermohaline circulation seems unlikely in the 21st century, although very recent evidence suggests that a weakening may already be underway. We have confidence that current climate models can capture a weakening, but a collapse in the 21st century of the thermohaline circulation is not projected by climate models. Worrying evidence of instability in terrestrial carbon, from observations and modelling studies, is beginning to accumulate. Current climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the 4th Assessment Report do not include these terrestrial carbon processes. We therefore can not make statements with any confidence regarding these changes. At present, the scale of the terrestrial carbon feedback is believed to be small enough that it does not significantly affect projections of warming during the first half of the 21st century. However, the uncertainties in how biological systems will respond to warming are sufficiently large to undermine confidence in this belief and point us to areas requiring significant additional work.

  2. Abrupt climate change and extinction events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowley, Thomas J.

    1988-01-01

    There is a growing body of theoretical and empirical support for the concept of instabilities in the climate system, and indications that abrupt climate change may in some cases contribute to abrupt extinctions. Theoretical indications of instabilities can be found in a broad spectrum of climate models (energy balance models, a thermohaline model of deep-water circulation, atmospheric general circulation models, and coupled ocean-atmosphere models). Abrupt transitions can be of several types and affect the environment in different ways. There is increasing evidence for abrupt climate change in the geologic record and involves both interglacial-glacial scale transitions and the longer-term evolution of climate over the last 100 million years. Records from the Cenozoic clearly show that the long-term trend is characterized by numerous abrupt steps where the system appears to be rapidly moving to a new equilibrium state. The long-term trend probably is due to changes associated with plate tectonic processes, but the abrupt steps most likely reflect instabilities in the climate system as the slowly changing boundary conditions caused the climate to reach some threshold critical point. A more detailed analysis of abrupt steps comes from high-resolution studies of glacial-interglacial fluctuations in the Pleistocene. Comparison of climate transitions with the extinction record indicates that many climate and biotic transitions coincide. The Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction is not a candidate for an extinction event due to instabilities in the climate system. It is quite possible that more detailed comparisons and analysis will indicate some flaws in the climate instability-extinction hypothesis, but at present it appears to be a viable candidate as an alternate mechanism for causing abrupt environmental changes and extinctions.

  3. The economics of abrupt climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perrings, Charles

    2003-09-15

    The US National Research Council defines abrupt climate change as a change of state that is sufficiently rapid and sufficiently widespread in its effects that economies are unprepared or incapable of adapting. This may be too restrictive a definition, but abrupt climate change does have implications for the choice between the main response options: mitigation (which reduces the risks of climate change) and adaptation (which reduces the costs of climate change). The paper argues that by (i) increasing the costs of change and the potential growth of consumption, and (ii) reducing the time to change, abrupt climate change favours mitigation over adaptation. Furthermore, because the implications of change are fundamentally uncertain and potentially very high, it favours a precautionary approach in which mitigation buys time for learning. Adaptation-oriented decision tools, such as scenario planning, are inappropriate in these circumstances. Hence learning implies the use of probabilistic models that include socioeconomic feedbacks.

  4. The Science of Abrupt Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overpeck, J. T.

    2002-12-01

    The issue of abrupt climate change has been highlighted by a recent National Academy of Sciences (NRC) study as one of the most troubling potential aspects of future global climate change. The science of abrupt climate change originated in the discovery and study of huge climatic shifts during the last glacial period, particularly in and around the North Atlantic. We now know that ocean thermohaline circulation and circum-North Atlantic climate can change in hard-to-anticipate non-linear ways, and that this type of threat is still very real for the future. At the same time, attention is increasingly being focused on other, equally serious, types of potential "warm climate" abrupt climate change. Worldwide, there is abundant paleoenvironmental evidence for decades-long "megadroughts" that, for example, seemingly occurred on average once or twice a millennium in North America. Dramatic shifts in El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability have also occurred in the past, and could be linked to the occurrence of past megadroughts. Evidence also exists that supports the assertion that the frequency of major floods, and/or landfalls by the largest tropical storms, can change significantly and abruptly. However, as with abrupt shifts in ENSO or drought frequency/duration, we still have only an imperfect observational record, and worse, little proven basis for prediction. This is one reason why abrupt change poses a significant threat to technologically-advanced, as well as developing countries. Major abrupt sea level rise is also a major threat, but again, the paleoclimate record indicates that our understanding of processes related to ice cap melting are not as good as we would like. Given that abrupt climatic changes could occur even in the absence of significant anthropogenic climate change, society should act soon to reduce vulnerabilities. However, the most troubling aspect of the issue is that global warming will likely act to increase the probability of

  5. Modeling Past Abrupt Climate Changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marchionne, Arianna

    According to Milankovitch theory of ice ages, glacial cycles are driven by variations in the insolation, i.e. the amount of the incoming solar radiation reaching the Earth. These variations are associated with variations of the Earth's orbit. Many attempts have been made to identify the in uence...... of the orbital variations on Earth's climate; however, the knowledge and tools needed to complete a unied theory for ice ages have not been developed yet. Here, we focus on the climatic variations that have occurred over the last few million years. Paleoclimatic records show that the glacial cycles are linked...... to the orbitally driven variations in insolation. However, the relationship is far from linear, and insolation alone can not explain the climatic variability seen in the records. In the rst part of this thesis, we discuss the possible dynamical mechanisms for linking the frequencies observed in the records...

  6. The Arctic Grand Challenge: Abrupt Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkniss, P. E.

    2003-12-01

    Trouble in polar paradise (Science, 08/30/02), significant changes in the Arctic environment are scientifically documented (R.E. Moritz et al. ibid.). More trouble, lots more, "abrupt climate change," (R. B. Alley, et al. Science 03/28/03). R. Corell, Arctic Climate Impact Assessment team (ACIA), "If you want to see what will happen in the rest of the world 25 years from now just look what's happening in the Arctic," (Arctic Council meeting, Iceland, 08/03). What to do? Make abrupt Arctic climate change a grand challenge for the IPY-4 and beyond! Scientifically:Describe the "state" of the Arctic climate system as succinctly as possible and accept it as the point of departure.Develop a hypothesis and criteria what constitutes "abrupt climate change," in the Arctic that can be tested with observations. Observations: Bring to bear existing observations and coordinate new investments in observations through an IPY-4 scientific management committee. Make the new Barrow, Alaska, Global Climate Change Research Facility a major U.S. contribution and focal point for the IPY-4 in the U.S Arctic. Arctic populations, Native peoples: The people of the North are living already, daily, with wrenching change, encroaching on their habitats and cultures. For them "the earth is faster now," (I. Krupnik and D. Jolly, ARCUS, 2002). From a political, economic, social and entirely realistic perspective, an Arctic grand challenge without the total integration of the Native peoples in this effort cannot succeed. Therefore: Communications must be established, and the respective Native entities must be approached with the determination to create well founded, well functioning, enduring partnerships. In the U.S. Arctic, Barrow with its long history of involvement and active support of science and with the new global climate change research facility should be the focal point of choice Private industry: Resource extraction in the Arctic followed by oil and gas consumption, return the combustion

  7. The Role of the Tropics in Abrupt Climate Changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fedorov, Alexey [Yale University

    2013-12-07

    Topics addressed include: abrupt climate changes and ocean circulation in the tropics; what controls the ocean thermal structure in the tropics; a permanent El Niño in paleoclimates; the energetics of the tropical ocean.

  8. The role of the thermohaline circulation in abrupt climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Peter U; Pisias, Nicklas G; Stocker, Thomas F; Weaver, Andrew J

    2002-02-21

    The possibility of a reduced Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to increases in greenhouse-gas concentrations has been demonstrated in a number of simulations with general circulation models of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. But it remains difficult to assess the likelihood of future changes in the thermohaline circulation, mainly owing to poorly constrained model parameterizations and uncertainties in the response of the climate system to greenhouse warming. Analyses of past abrupt climate changes help to solve these problems. Data and models both suggest that abrupt climate change during the last glaciation originated through changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to small changes in the hydrological cycle. Atmospheric and oceanic responses to these changes were then transmitted globally through a number of feedbacks. The palaeoclimate data and the model results also indicate that the stability of the thermohaline circulation depends on the mean climate state.

  9. Abrupt climate change and thermohaline circulation: mechanisms and predictability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marotzke, J

    2000-02-15

    The ocean's thermohaline circulation has long been recognized as potentially unstable and has consequently been invoked as a potential cause of abrupt climate change on all timescales of decades and longer. However, fundamental aspects of thermohaline circulation changes remain poorly understood.

  10. Abrupt climate change and thermohaline circulation: Mechanisms and predictability

    OpenAIRE

    Marotzke, Jochem

    2000-01-01

    The ocean's thermohaline circulation has long been recognized as potentially unstable and has consequently been invoked as a potential cause of abrupt climate change on all timescales of decades and longer. However, fundamental aspects of thermohaline circulation changes remain poorly understood.

  11. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Abrupt Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch-Stieglitz, Jean

    2017-01-03

    Abrupt changes in climate have occurred in many locations around the globe over the last glacial cycle, with pronounced temperature swings on timescales of decades or less in the North Atlantic. The global pattern of these changes suggests that they reflect variability in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). This review examines the evidence from ocean sediments for ocean circulation change over these abrupt events. The evidence for changes in the strength and structure of the AMOC associated with the Younger Dryas and many of the Heinrich events is strong. Although it has been difficult to directly document changes in the AMOC over the relatively short Dansgaard-Oeschger events, there is recent evidence supporting AMOC changes over most of these oscillations as well. The lack of direct evidence for circulation changes over the shortest events leaves open the possibility of other driving mechanisms for millennial-scale climate variability.

  12. Mechanisms of abrupt climate change of the last glacial period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clement, Amy C.; Peterson, Larry C.

    2008-12-01

    More than a decade ago, ice core records from Greenland revealed that the last glacial period was characterized by abrupt climate changes that recurred on millennial time scales. Since their discovery, there has been a large effort to determine whether these climate events were a global phenomenon or were just confined to the North Atlantic region and also to reveal the mechanisms that were responsible for them. In this paper, we review the available paleoclimate observations of abrupt change during the last glacial period in order to place constraints on possible mechanisms. Three different mechanisms are then reviewed: ocean thermohaline circulation, sea ice feedbacks, and tropical processes. Each mechanism is tested for its ability to explain the key features of the observations, particularly with regard to the abruptness, millennial recurrence, and geographical extent of the observed changes. It is found that each of these mechanisms has explanatory strengths and weaknesses, and key areas in which progress could be made in improving the understanding of their long-term behavior, both from observational and modeling approaches, are suggested. Finally, it is proposed that a complete understanding of the mechanisms of abrupt change requires inclusion of processes at both low and high latitudes, as well as the potential for feedbacks between them. Some suggestions for experimental approaches to test for such feedbacks with coupled climate models are given.

  13. A novel method for analyzing the process of abrupt climate change

    OpenAIRE

    P. C. Yan; Feng, G. L.; Hou, W.

    2015-01-01

    A climate system which is transitioning from one state to another is known as an abrupt climate change. Most of the recent studies regarding abrupt climate change have focused on the changes occurring before and after the abrupt change point, while little attention has been given to the "transition process" which occurs when the system breaks away from the original state to a new state. In this study, a novel method for analyzing the process of abrupt climate change was pres...

  14. Wildfire responses to abrupt climate change in North America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marlon, J R; Bartlein, P J; Walsh, M K; Harrison, S P; Brown, K J; Edwards, M E; Higuera, P E; Power, M J; Anderson, R S; Briles, C; Brunelle, A; Carcaillet, C; Daniels, M; Hu, F S; Lavoie, M; Long, C; Minckley, T; Richard, P J H; Scott, A C; Shafer, D S; Tinner, W; Umbanhowar, C E; Whitlock, C

    2009-02-24

    It is widely accepted, based on data from the last few decades and on model simulations, that anthropogenic climate change will cause increased fire activity. However, less attention has been paid to the relationship between abrupt climate changes and heightened fire activity in the paleorecord. We use 35 charcoal and pollen records to assess how fire regimes in North America changed during the last glacial-interglacial transition (15 to 10 ka), a time of large and rapid climate changes. We also test the hypothesis that a comet impact initiated continental-scale wildfires at 12.9 ka; the data do not support this idea, nor are continent-wide fires indicated at any time during deglaciation. There are, however, clear links between large climate changes and fire activity. Biomass burning gradually increased from the glacial period to the beginning of the Younger Dryas. Although there are changes in biomass burning during the Younger Dryas, there is no systematic trend. There is a further increase in biomass burning after the Younger Dryas. Intervals of rapid climate change at 13.9, 13.2, and 11.7 ka are marked by large increases in fire activity. The timing of changes in fire is not coincident with changes in human population density or the timing of the extinction of the megafauna. Although these factors could have contributed to fire-regime changes at individual sites or at specific times, the charcoal data indicate an important role for climate, and particularly rapid climate change, in determining broad-scale levels of fire activity.

  15. Dynamic response of desert wetlands to abrupt climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Springer, Kathleen; Manker, Craig; Pigati, Jeffrey S.

    2015-01-01

    Desert wetlands are keystone ecosystems in arid environments and are preserved in the geologic record as groundwater discharge (GWD) deposits. GWD deposits are inherently discontinuous and stratigraphically complex, which has limited our understanding of how desert wetlands responded to past episodes of rapid climate change. Previous studies have shown that wetlands responded to climate change on glacial to interglacial timescales, but their sensitivity to short-lived climate perturbations is largely unknown. Here, we show that GWD deposits in the Las Vegas Valley (southern Nevada, United States) provide a detailed and nearly complete record of dynamic hydrologic changes during the past 35 ka (thousands of calibrated 14C years before present), including cycles of wetland expansion and contraction that correlate tightly with climatic oscillations recorded in the Greenland ice cores. Cessation of discharge associated with rapid warming events resulted in the collapse of entire wetland systems in the Las Vegas Valley at multiple times during the late Quaternary. On average, drought-like conditions, as recorded by widespread erosion and the formation of desert soils, lasted for a few centuries. This record illustrates the vulnerability of desert wetland flora and fauna to abrupt climate change. It also shows that GWD deposits can be used to reconstruct paleohydrologic conditions at millennial to submillennial timescales and informs conservation efforts aimed at protecting these fragile ecosystems in the face of anthropogenic warming.

  16. Abrupt climate changes during Termination III in Southern Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Mejías, Carlos; Moreno, Ana; Sancho, Carlos; Bartolomé, Miguel; Stoll, Heather; Cacho, Isabel; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, R. Lawrence

    2017-09-01

    The Late Quaternary glacial-interglacial transitions represent the highest amplitude climate changes over the last million years. Unraveling the sequence of events and feedbacks at Termination III (T-III), including potential abrupt climate reversals similar to those of the last Termination, has been particularly challenging due to the scarcity of well-dated records worldwide. Here, we present speleothem data from southern Europe covering the interval from 262.7 to 217.9 kyBP, including the transition from marine isotope stage (MIS) 8 to MIS 7e. High-resolution δ13C, δ18O, and Mg/Ca profiles reveal major millennial-scale changes in aridity manifested in changing water availability and vegetation productivity. uranium-thorium dates provide a solid chronology for two millennial-scale events (S8.1 and S8.2) which, compared with the last two terminations, has some common features with Heinrich 1 and Heinrich 2 in Termination I (T-I).

  17. Catalogue of abrupt shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drijfhout, Sybren; Bathiany, Sebastian; Beaulieu, Claudie; Brovkin, Victor; Claussen, Martin; Huntingford, Chris; Scheffer, Marten; Sgubin, Giovanni; Swingedouw, Didier

    2015-10-01

    Abrupt transitions of regional climate in response to the gradual rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are notoriously difficult to foresee. However, such events could be particularly challenging in view of the capacity required for society and ecosystems to adapt to them. We present, to our knowledge, the first systematic screening of the massive climate model ensemble informing the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, and reveal evidence of 37 forced regional abrupt changes in the ocean, sea ice, snow cover, permafrost, and terrestrial biosphere that arise after a certain global temperature increase. Eighteen out of 37 events occur for global warming levels of less than 2°, a threshold sometimes presented as a safe limit. Although most models predict one or more such events, any specific occurrence typically appears in only a few models. We find no compelling evidence for a general relation between the overall number of abrupt shifts and the level of global warming. However, we do note that abrupt changes in ocean circulation occur more often for moderate warming (less than 2°), whereas over land they occur more often for warming larger than 2°. Using a basic proportion test, however, we find that the number of abrupt shifts identified in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenarios is significantly larger than in other scenarios of lower radiative forcing. This suggests the potential for a gradual trend of destabilization of the climate with respect to such shifts, due to increasing global mean temperature change.

  18. Extensive wildfires, climate change, and an abrupt state change in subalpine ribbon forests, Colorado.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calder, W John; Shuman, Bryan

    2017-10-01

    Ecosystems may shift abruptly when the effects of climate change and disturbance interact, and landscapes with regularly patterned vegetation may be especially vulnerable to abrupt shifts. Here we use a fossil pollen record from a regularly patterned ribbon forest (alternating bands of forests and meadows) in Colorado to examine whether past changes in wildfire and climate produced abrupt vegetation shifts. Comparing the percentages of conifer pollen with sedimentary δ18 O data (interpreted as an indicator of temperature or snow accumulation) indicates a first-order linear relationship between vegetation composition and climate change with no detectable lags over the past 2,500 yr (r = 0.55, P changed abruptly within a century of extensive wildfires, which were recognized in a previous study to have burned approximately 80% of the surrounding 1,000 km2 landscape 1,000 yr ago when temperatures rose ~0.5°C. The vegetation change was larger than expected from the effects of climate change alone. Pollen assemblages changed from a composition associated with closed subalpine forests to one similar to modern ribbon forests. Fossil pollen assemblages then remained like those from modern ribbon forests for the following ~1,000 yr, providing a clear example of how extensive disturbances can trigger persistent new vegetation states and alter how vegetation responds to climate. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

  19. Spontaneous abrupt climate change due to an atmospheric blocking–sea-ice–ocean feedback in an unforced climate model simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Drijfhout, S.S.; Gleeson, E.; Dijkstra, H.A.; Livina, V.

    2013-01-01

    Abrupt climate change is abundant in geological records, but climate models rarely have been able to simulate such events in response to realistic forcing. Here we report on a spontaneous abrupt cooling event, lasting for more than a century, with a temperature anomaly similar to that of the Little

  20. Paleoclimate from ice cores : abrupt climate change and the prolonged Holocene

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    White, J.W.C. [Colorado Univ., Boulder, CO (United States). Environmental Studies Program and Inst. of Arctic and Alpine Research; Petit, J.-R. [Centre National de Recherche Scientifique, Saint Martin d' Heres Cedex (France)

    2001-07-01

    Ice cores provide valuable information about the Earth's past climates and past environments. They can also help in predicting future climates and the nature of climate change. Recent findings in ice cores have shown large and abrupt climate changes in the past. This paper addressed abrupt climate changes and the peculiar nature of the Holocene. An abrupt climate change is a shift of 5 degrees C in mean annual temperature in less than 50 years. This is considered to be the most threatening aspect of potential future climate change since it leaves very little time for adaptation by humans or any other part of the Earth's ecosystem. This paper also discussed the arrival of the next glacial period. In the past 50 years, scientists have recognized the importance of the Earth's orbit around the sun in pacing the occurrence of large ice sheets. The timing of orbital forcing suggests that the Earth is overdue for the next major glaciation. The reason for this anomaly was discussed. Abrupt climate shifts seem to be caused by mode changes in sensitive points in the climate system, such as the North Atlantic Deep Water Formation and its impact on sea ice cover in the North Atlantic. These changes have been observed in ice cores in Greenland but they are not restricted to Greenland. Evidence from Antarctic ice cores suggest that abrupt climate change may also occur in the Southern Hemisphere. The Vostok ice core in Antarctica indicates that the 11,000 year long interglacial period that we are in right now is longer than the previous four interglacial periods. The Holocene epoch is unique because both methane and carbon dioxide rise in the last 6,000 years, an atypical response from these greenhouse gases during an interglacial period. It was suggested that the rise in methane can be attributed to human activities. 13 refs., 2 figs.

  1. Catalogue of abrupt shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Drijfhout, S.; Bathiany, S.; Beaulieu, N.; Brovkin, V.; Claussen, M.; Huntingford, C.; Scheffer, M.; Sgubin, G.; Swingedouw, D.

    2015-01-01

    Abrupt transitions of regional climate in response to the gradual rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are notoriously difficult to foresee. However, such events could be particularly challenging in view of the capacity required for society and ecosystems to adapt to them. We present,

  2. The role of sea ice in abrupt climate changes following the last glacial maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nisancioglu, Kerim; Dokken, Trond

    2017-04-01

    Climate changes following the last glacial maximum ( 21-10ka BP) are considered some of the most dramatic and wide reaching abrupt events of the geological past. On Greenland the transition from the last glacial maximum to the Bølling-Allerød (BA) warm period was extremely abrupt, as is the transitions in and out of the Younger Dryas (YD) cold period. In terms of ocean changes, there are indications from proxy records that the large scale Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) was significantly reduced a few thousand years before the BA and again at the start of the YD. However, the link between changes in AMOC and climate in the Northern Hemisphere and in particular on Greenland is unclear. Here, we study changes to climate and circulation in the North Atlantic across these key climate transitions based on a sediment core from the Nordic Seas as well as sensitivity studies with a global climate model. Preliminary results suggest that changes in sea ice and stratification of the Nordic Seas played a key role in the observed climate changes during and preceding the deglaciation of the large land based ice sheets. In particular the cold period following Heinrich Event 1 (H1) and ending at the BA as well as the cold YD are associated with expansions of Arctic sea ice into the Nordic Seas region.

  3. Simulating the vegetation response in western Europe to abrupt climate changes under glacial background conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.-N. Woillez

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The last glacial period has been punctuated by two types of abrupt climatic events, the Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO and Heinrich (HE events. These events, recorded in Greenland ice and in marine sediments, involved changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC and led to major changes in the terrestrial biosphere. Here we use the dynamical global vegetation model ORCHIDEE to simulate the response of vegetation to abrupt changes in the AMOC strength. We force ORCHIDEE offline with outputs from the IPSL_CM4 general circulation model, in which the AMOC is forced to change by adding freshwater fluxes in the North Atlantic. We investigate the impact of a collapse and recovery of the AMOC, at different rates, and focus on Western Europe, where many pollen records are available for comparison. The impact of an AMOC collapse on the European mean temperatures and precipitations simulated by the GCM is relatively small but sufficient to drive an important regression of forests and expansion of grasses in ORCHIDEE, in qualitative agreement with pollen data for an HE event. On the contrary, a run with a rapid shift of the AMOC to a hyperactive state of 30 Sv, mimicking the warming phase of a DO event, does not exhibit a strong impact on the European vegetation compared to the glacial control state. For our model, simulating the impact of an HE event thus appears easier than simulating the abrupt transition towards the interstadial phase of a DO. For both a collapse or a recovery of the AMOC, the vegetation starts to respond to climatic changes immediately but reaches equilibrium about 200 yr after the climate equilibrates, suggesting a possible bias in the climatic reconstructions based on pollen records, which assume equilibrium between climate and vegetation. However, our study does not take into account vegetation feedbacks on the atmosphere.

  4. Linear trend and abrupt changes of climate indices in the arid region of northwestern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Huaijun; Pan, Yingping; Chen, Yaning; Ye, Zhengwei

    2017-11-01

    In recent years, climate extreme events have caused increasing direct economic and social losses in the arid region of northwestern China. Based on daily temperature and precipitation data from 1960 to 2010, this paper discussed the linear trend and abrupt changes of climate indices. The general evolution was obtained by the empirical orthogonal function (EOF), the Mann-Kendall test, and the distribution-free cumulative sum chart (CUSUM) test. The results are as follows: (1) climate showed a warming trend at annual and seasonal scale, with all temperature indices exhibiting statistically significant changes. The warm indices have increased, with 1.37%days/decade of warm days (TX90p), 0.17 °C/decade of warmest days (TXx) and 1.97 days/decade of warm spell duration indicator (WSDI), respectively. The cold indices have decreased, with - 1.89%days/decade, 0.65 °C/decade and - 0.66 days/decade for cold nights (TN10p), coldest nights (TNn) and cold spell duration indicator (CSDI), respectively. The precipitation indices have also increased significantly, coupled with the changes of magnitude (max 1-day precipitation amount (RX1day)), frequency (rain day (R0.1)), and duration (consecutive dry days (CDD)). (2) Abrupt changes of the annual regional precipitation indices and the minimum temperature indices were observed around 1986, and that of the maximum temperature indices were observed in 1996. (3) The EOF1 indicated the overall coherent distribution for the whole study area, and its principal component (PC1) was also observed, showing a significant linear trend with an abrupt change, which were in accordance with the regional observation results. EOF2 and EOF3 show contrasts between the southern and northern study areas, and between the eastern and western study areas, respectively, whereas no significant tendency was observed for their PCs. Hence, the climate indices have changed significantly, with linear trends and abrupt changes noted for all climate indices

  5. Postglacial Human resilience and susceptibility to abrupt climate change new insights from Star Carr

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blockley, Simon; Abrook, Ashley; Bayliss, Alex; Candy, Ian; Conneller, Chantal; Darvill, Chris; Deeprose, Laura; Kearney, Rebecca; Langdon, Pete; Langdon Langdon, Cath; Lincoln, Paul; Macleod, Alison; Matthews, Ian; Palmer, Adrian; Schreve, Danielle; Taylor, Barry; Milner, Nicky

    2017-04-01

    We know little about the lives of the early humans who lived during the early Postglacial period (the Lateglacial and Early Holocene), a time characterised by abrupt climate change after 16,000, which includes a series of abrupt climatic transitions linked to the reorganisation of the global environment after the glacial maximum and the last major global warming event at the onset of the Holocene. The hunter-gatherers who lived during the early Postglacial have been characterised as highly mobile, dispersed and living within small groups, and there is much debate as to how they adapted to climatic and environmental change: did they move in response to climatic transitions (and if so what was the climatic threshold), or instead adapt their lifeways to the new environmental conditions? A key area for examining these ideas is the British Isles as it sits on the Atlantic fringe of Northwest Europe with a climate that is highly responsive to the wider climate forcing experienced in the northern Hemisphere. Furthermore, in this period, Britain is directly linked to continental Europe due to lowered global sea levels allowing for the ease of human migration in and out of this region. In general the British record has been seen as being dominated by abandonment and reoccupation in the Postglacial during periods of climatic transition with hunter-gatherer mobility being closely linked to the prevailing environment. Recent discoveries at the Early Mesolithic site of Star Carr and surrounding area, linked to local and regional climate records, based on isotopic, chironomid and pollen proxy data and dated at high chronological resolution, offer a new picture. Postglacial human occupation of the area commences at the Pleistocene/Holocene transition but is short lived and appears to end close to the Pre-Boreal Oscillation, However, this is followed by a period where hunter-gatherers occupy Star Carr and settle and invest time and effort into building huts and large scale wooden

  6. Reducing Abrupt Climate Change Risk Using the Montreal Protocol and Other Regulatory Actions to Complement Cuts in CO₂ emissions

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Mario Molina; Durwood Zaelke; K. Madhava Sarma; Stephen O. Andersen; Veerabhadran Ramanathan; Donald Kaniaru; Hans Joachim Schellnhuber

    2009-01-01

    ... into abrupt change with potentially irreversible and unmanageable consequences. This would mean that the climate system is close to entering if not already within the zone of "dangerous anthropogenic interference" (DAI...

  7. Change-point analysis as a tool to detect abrupt climate variations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaulieu, Claudie; Chen, Jie; Sarmiento, Jorge L

    2012-03-13

    Recently, there have been an increasing number of studies using change-point methods to detect artificial or natural discontinuities and regime shifts in climate. However, a major drawback with most of the currently used change-point methods is the lack of flexibility (able to detect one specific type of shift under the assumption that the residuals are independent). As temporal variations in climate are complex, it may be difficult to identify change points with very simple models. Moreover, climate time series are known to exhibit autocorrelation, which corresponds to a model misspecification if not taken into account and can lead to the detection of non-existent shifts. In this study, we extend a method known as the informational approach for change-point detection to take into account the presence of autocorrelation in the model. The usefulness and flexibility of this approach are demonstrated through applications. Furthermore, it is highly desirable to develop techniques that can detect shifts soon after they occur for climate monitoring. To address this, we also carried out a simulation study in order to investigate the number of years after which an abrupt shift is detectable. We use two decision rules in order to decide whether a shift is detected or not, which represents a trade-off between increasing our chances of detecting a shift and reducing the risk of detecting a shift while in reality there is none. We show that, as of now, we have good chances to detect an abrupt shift with a magnitude that is larger than that of the standard deviation in the series of observations. For shifts with a very large magnitude (three times the standard deviation), our simulation study shows that after only 4 years the probabilities of shift detection reach nearly 100 per cent. This reveals that the approach has potential for climate monitoring.

  8. Spontaneous abrupt climate change due to an atmospheric blocking-sea-ice-ocean feedback in an unforced climate model simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drijfhout, Sybren; Gleeson, Emily; Dijkstra, Henk A; Livina, Valerie

    2013-12-03

    Abrupt climate change is abundant in geological records, but climate models rarely have been able to simulate such events in response to realistic forcing. Here we report on a spontaneous abrupt cooling event, lasting for more than a century, with a temperature anomaly similar to that of the Little Ice Age. The event was simulated in the preindustrial control run of a high-resolution climate model, without imposing external perturbations. Initial cooling started with a period of enhanced atmospheric blocking over the eastern subpolar gyre. In response, a southward progression of the sea-ice margin occurred, and the sea-level pressure anomaly was locked to the sea-ice margin through thermal forcing. The cold-core high steered more cold air to the area, reinforcing the sea-ice concentration anomaly east of Greenland. The sea-ice surplus was carried southward by ocean currents around the tip of Greenland. South of 70 °N, sea ice already started melting and the associated freshwater anomaly was carried to the Labrador Sea, shutting off deep convection. There, surface waters were exposed longer to atmospheric cooling and sea surface temperature dropped, causing an even larger thermally forced high above the Labrador Sea. In consequence, east of Greenland, anomalous winds changed from north to south, terminating the event with similar abruptness to its onset. Our results imply that only climate models that possess sufficient resolution to correctly represent atmospheric blocking, in combination with a sensitive sea-ice model, are able to simulate this kind of abrupt climate change.

  9. Collaborative Project: Development of an Isotope-Enabled CESM for Testing Abrupt Climate Changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Zhengyu [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences

    2018-01-24

    One of the most important validations for a state-of-art Earth System Model (ESM) with respect to climate changes is the simulation of the climate evolution and abrupt climate change events in the Earth’s history of the last 21,000 years. However, one great challenge for model validation is that ESMs usually do not directly simulate geochemical variables that can be compared directly with past proxy records. In this proposal, we have met this challenge by developing the simulation capability of major isotopes in a state-of-art ESM, the Community Earth System Model (CESM), enabling us to make direct model-data comparison by comparing the model directly against proxy climate records. Our isotope-enabled ESM incorporates the capability of simulating key isotopes and geotracers, notably δ18O, δD, δ14C, and δ13C, Nd and Pa/Th. The isotope-enabled ESM have been used to perform some simulations for the last 21000 years. The direct comparison of these simulations with proxy records has shed light on the mechanisms of important climate change events.

  10. Moisture transport across Central America as a positive feedback on abrupt climatic changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leduc, Guillaume; Vidal, Laurence; Tachikawa, Kazuyo; Rostek, Frauke; Sonzogni, Corinne; Beaufort, Luc; Bard, Edouard

    2007-02-22

    Moisture transport from the Atlantic to the Pacific ocean across Central America leads to relatively high salinities in the North Atlantic Ocean and contributes to the formation of North Atlantic Deep Water. This deep water formation varied strongly between Dansgaard/Oeschger interstadials and Heinrich events-millennial-scale abrupt warm and cold events, respectively, during the last glacial period. Increases in the moisture transport across Central America have been proposed to coincide with northerly shifts of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and with Dansgaard/Oeschger interstadials, with opposite changes for Heinrich events. Here we reconstruct sea surface salinities in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean over the past 90,000 years by comparing palaeotemperature estimates from alkenones and Mg/Ca ratios with foraminiferal oxygen isotope ratios that vary with both temperature and salinity. We detect millennial-scale fluctuations of sea surface salinities in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean of up to two to four practical salinity units. High salinities are associated with the southward migration of the tropical Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone, coinciding with Heinrich events and with Greenland stadials. The amplitudes of these salinity variations are significantly larger on the Pacific side of the Panama isthmus, as inferred from a comparison of our data with a palaeoclimate record from the Caribbean basin. We conclude that millennial-scale fluctuations of moisture transport constitute an important feedback mechanism for abrupt climate changes, modulating the North Atlantic freshwater budget and hence North Atlantic Deep Water formation.

  11. Agriculture, Settlement, and Abrupt Climate Change: The 4.2ka BP event in Northern Mesopotamia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ristvet, L.

    2003-12-01

    An abrupt aridification event at 4200 BP has been recorded in 41 paleoclimate proxies in the Old World, from Kilmanjaro, Tanzania to Rajasthan, India, East Asia and the Pacific. This event is particularly well defined for Western Asia, where it has been associated with the abandonment of settlements across the Fertile Crescent and the collapse of states on the Levantine coast and in the dry-farming plains of Northern Mesopotamia, including the Akkadian Empire. Adaptations to climate change are constrained by both local environmental and social factors. Agriculturalists, especially those living in pre-industrial societies, are particularly susceptible to changes in precipitation. The Tell Leilan Regional Survey, which systematically studied sites in a 1650km2 area of Northeastern Syria, records one set of adaptations to this event in an area where dry-farming provided the subsistence base. The survey transect crosses ecotones, from the present 500mm isohyet in the North to the 250mm isohyet in the South, and contains diverse wadi systems, ground water resources, soil profiles, and an ancient marsh/lake-- all of which allow this region to be taken as a microcosm of Northern Mesopotamia. In order to contextualize our study of human response to abrupt climate change, it is necessary to consider how the economic and social systems that were previously in place were transformed by this event. This study attempts to quantify climate change and model its effects on agricultural, pastoral, and settlement systems in Northeastern Syria from 2400-1700 BC. From 2400-2300 BC, optimal climate conditions coincided with the consolidation of an indigenous state. The next century witnessed the Akkadian conquest and imperialization of the Habur plains, which resulted in both the intensification and extensification of agro-production. During the next 300 years, (2200-1900 BC), rainfall plummeted to 70% of the climatic optimum, triggering the abandonment of cities along with their

  12. Abrupt climate changes of the last deglaciation detected in a Western Mediterranean forest record

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. J. Fletcher

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abrupt changes in Western Mediterranean climate during the last deglaciation (20 to 6 cal ka BP are detected in marine core MD95-2043 (Alboran Sea through the investigation of high-resolution pollen data and pollen-based climate reconstructions by the modern analogue technique (MAT for annual precipitation (Pann and mean temperatures of the coldest and warmest months (MTCO and MTWA. Changes in temperate Mediterranean forest development and composition and MAT reconstructions indicate major climatic shifts with parallel temperature and precipitation changes at the onsets of Heinrich stadial 1 (equivalent to the Oldest Dryas, the Bölling-Allerød (BA, and the Younger Dryas (YD. Multi-centennial-scale oscillations in forest development occurred throughout the BA, YD, and early Holocene. Shifts in vegetation composition and (Pann reconstructions indicate that forest declines occurred during dry, and generally cool, episodes centred at 14.0, 13.3, 12.9, 11.8, 10.7, 10.1, 9.2, 8.3 and 7.4 cal ka BP. The forest record also suggests multiple, low-amplitude Preboreal (PB climate oscillations, and a marked increase in moisture availability for forest development at the end of the PB at 10.6 cal ka BP. Dry atmospheric conditions in the Western Mediterranean occurred in phase with Lateglacial events of high-latitude cooling including GI-1d (Older Dryas, GI-1b (Intra-Allerød Cold Period and GS-1 (YD, and during Holocene events associated with high-latitude cooling, meltwater pulses and N. Atlantic ice-rafting. A possible climatic mechanism for the recurrence of dry intervals and an opposed regional precipitation pattern with respect to Western-central Europe relates to the dynamics of the westerlies and the prevalence of atmospheric blocking highs. Comparison of radiocarbon and ice-core ages for well-defined climatic transitions in the forest record suggests possible enhancement of marine reservoir ages in the Alboran

  13. Precise interpolar phasing of abrupt climate change during the last ice age

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,; Buizert, Christo; Adrian, Betty M.; Ahn, Jinho; Albert, Mary; Alley, Richard B.; Baggenstos, Daniel; Bauska, Thomas K.; Bay, Ryan C.; Bencivengo, Brian B.; Bentley, Charles R.; Brook, Edward J.; Chellman, Nathan J.; Clow, Gary D.; Cole-Dai, Jihong; Conway, Howard; Cravens, Eric; Cuffey, Kurt M.; Dunbar, Nelia W.; Edwards, Jon S.; Fegyveresi, John M.; Ferris, Dave G.; Fitzpatrick, Joan J.; Fudge, T. J.; Gibson, Chris J.; Gkinis, Vasileios; Goetz, Joshua J.; Gregory, Stephanie; Hargreaves, Geoffrey Mill; Iverson, Nels; Johnson, Jay A.; Jones, Tyler R.; Kalk, Michael L.; Kippenhan, Matthew J.; Koffman, Bess G.; Kreutz, Karl; Kuhl, Tanner W.; Lebar, Donald A.; Lee, James E.; Marcott, Shaun A.; Markle, Bradley R.; Maselli, Olivia J.; McConnell, Joseph R.; McGwire, Kenneth C.; Mitchell, Logan E.; Mortensen, Nicolai B.; Neff, Peter D.; Nishiizumi, Kunihiko; Nunn, Richard M.; Orsi, Anais J.; Pasteris, Daniel R.; Pedro, Joel B.; Pettit, Erin C.; Price, P. Buford; Priscu, John C.; Rhodes, Rachael H.; Rosen, Julia L.; Schauer, Andrew J.; Schoenemann, Spruce W.; Sendelbach, Paul J.; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P.; Shturmakov, Alexander J.; Sigl, Michael; Slawny, Kristina R.; Souney, Joseph M.; Sowers, Todd A.; Spencer, Matthew K.; Steig, Eric J.; Taylor, Kendrick C.; Twickler, Mark S.; Vaughn, Bruce H.; Voigt, Donald E.; Waddington, Edwin D.; Welten, Kees C.; Wendricks, Anthony W.; White, James W. C.; Winstrup, Mai; Wong, Gifford J.; Woodruff, Thomas E.

    2015-01-01

    The last glacial period exhibited abrupt Dansgaard–Oeschger climatic oscillations, evidence of which is preserved in a variety of Northern Hemisphere palaeoclimate archives1. Ice cores show that Antarctica cooled during the warm phases of the Greenland Dansgaard–Oeschger cycle and vice versa2, 3, suggesting an interhemispheric redistribution of heat through a mechanism called the bipolar seesaw4, 5, 6. Variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength are thought to have been important, but much uncertainty remains regarding the dynamics and trigger of these abrupt events7, 8, 9. Key information is contained in the relative phasing of hemispheric climate variations, yet the large, poorly constrained difference between gas age and ice age and the relatively low resolution of methane records from Antarctic ice cores have so far precluded methane-based synchronization at the required sub-centennial precision2, 3,10. Here we use a recently drilled high-accumulation Antarctic ice core to show that, on average, abrupt Greenland warming leads the corresponding Antarctic cooling onset by 218 ± 92 years (2σ) for Dansgaard–Oeschger events, including the Bølling event; Greenland cooling leads the corresponding onset of Antarctic warming by 208 ± 96 years. Our results demonstrate a north-to-south directionality of the abrupt climatic signal, which is propagated to the Southern Hemisphere high latitudes by oceanic rather than atmospheric processes. The similar interpolar phasing of warming and cooling transitions suggests that the transfer time of the climatic signal is independent of the AMOC background state. Our findings confirm a central role for ocean circulation in the bipolar seesaw and provide clear criteria for assessing hypotheses and model simulations of Dansgaard–Oeschger dynamics.

  14. Abrupt Climate Change Caused by Global Fires from a Large Meteor Impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bardeen, C.; Toon, O. B.; Garcia, R. R.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Wolf, E. T.

    2015-12-01

    Global or near-global fires like those that are thought to have occurred after the Chicxulub asteroid impact are associated with abrupt climate change and the K-Pg mass extinction event. Using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), a three-dimensional coupled climate model with interactive chemistry, we have simulated the climate response to global fires assuming a burden of 70,000 Tg, as estimated from the K-Pg layer sediments by Wolbach et al. (1988). Soot aerosols are lofted by solar heating and remain in the atmosphere for about 6 years, warming the stratosphere by more than 240 K and suppressing completely solar radiation at the surface for 2 years. Global average land surface temperatures cool by -28 K after 3 years and ocean temperatures by -11 K after 4 years. Precipitation is reduced by 80 % for 5 years, and the ozone column is reduced by 80 % for 4 years. The tropical tropopause cold point disappears for a few years, leading to water vapor mixing ratios of > 1000 ppmv in the stratosphere. There is a rapid recovery around year 6, when the soot is removed by wet deposition as stratospheric water condenses and precipitates, but this is followed by a peak in the UV Index in the tropics of over 40 before stratospheric ozone recovers. Ocean temperature cools by more than -2 K to a depth of 300 m, and sea ice develops in the Black Sea, Caspian Sea, and Baltic Sea. Global fires, two years of darkness, extreme surface cooling, significant ocean cooling, increases in sea ice extent and a large short-term increase in UV Index would have been catastrophic for many life forms. This work is the first step in an effort to simulate the climatic effects of all of the aerosols and gases that may have been generated by the Chicxulub impact in a model that has been configured for late-Cretaceous conditions to help assess the role of the Chicxulub impact in the K-Pg extinction.

  15. Slow Onsets, Abrupt Changes, and Fast Reflexes: Learning from Climate Hazards in a Changing World

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, R. S.

    2016-12-01

    Adaptation is higher than ever before on the global agenda. Awareness of risks across the weather-climate continuum has increased pressure for information to support planning under changing rates and emergence of multiple hazards (e.g. drought, heat waves, floods). In recognition of this demand, the global community is developing a Global Framework for Climate Services, implementing the Sendai Framework on disaster risk reduction, and formulating climate-sensitive development and research initiatives aimed at nations and communities. The gap between conceptual feasibility and practical implementation remains immense. One of Gilbert White's many important contributions was in developing a framework for structuring adjustment decisions in the context of longer-term risks. The physical environment at a given stage of technology sets the theoretical range of choice while the practical range of choice is set by culture, capacity and institutions. These factors facilitate or impede efficient and equitable responses, with the latter being key in the underestimation of the complexities of adaptation. This presentation will focus on the scientific research, monitoring and information needed to address challenges in (1) Understanding thresholds in the relationship between physical and social changes, including those in connected systems such as water, food and energy, (2) Designing and diffusion of decision support tools and smart practices, and (3) Understanding the links between capacity-building and implementation, including the need to focus researchers and institutions on improving decision quality (not just meeting "user needs"). The author will engage the audience in a discussion of the drivers of social transitions and transformations, drawing on cases from around the world. Key questions, include "What leads to proactive collaboration and action?"; "How often should we revise our assumptions about the direction and magnitude of changes as events unfold?"; and "What

  16. Abrupt climate change and high to low latitude teleconnections as simulated in climate models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cvijanovic, Ivana

    precipitation shifts was further re-examined in idealized simulations with the fixed tropical sea surface temperatures, showing that the SST changes are fundamental to the tropical precipitation shifts. Regarding the high latitude energy loss, it was shown that the main energy compensation comes from...

  17. "What Controls the Structure and Stability of the Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation: Implications for Abrupt Climate Change?"

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fedorov, Alexey [Yale University

    2013-11-23

    The central goal of this research project is to understand the properties of the ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) – a topic critical for understanding climate variability and stability on a variety of timescales (from decadal to centennial and longer). Specifically, we have explored various factors that control the MOC stability and decadal variability in the Atlantic and the ocean thermal structure in general, including the possibility abrupt climate change. We have also continued efforts on improving the performance of coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs.

  18. Impacts of abrupt climate changes in the Levant from Last Glacial Dead Sea levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torfstein, Adi; Goldstein, Steven L.; Stein, Mordechai; Enzel, Yehouda

    2013-06-01

    A new, detailed lake level curve for Lake Lisan (the Last Glacial Dead Sea) reveals a high frequency of abrupt fluctuations during Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3) compared to the relatively high stand characterizing MIS2, and the significantly lower Holocene lake. The lake level fluctuations reflect the hydrological conditions in the large watershed of the lake, which in turn reflects the hydro-climatic conditions in the central Levant region. The new curve shows that the fluctuations coincide on millennial timescales with temperature variations recorded in Greenland. Four patterns of correlation are observed through the last ice age: (1) maximum lake elevations were reached during MIS2, the coldest interval; (2) abrupt lake level drops to the lowest elevations coincided with the occurrence of Heinrich (H) events; (3) the lake returned to higher-stand conditions along with warming in Greenland that followed H-events; (4) significant lake level fluctuations coincided with virtually every Greenland stadial-interstadial cycle. Over glacial-interglacial time-scales, Northern Hemisphere glacial cooling induces extreme wetness in the Levant, with high lake levels reaching ˜160 m below mean sea level (mbmsl), approximately 240 m above typical Holocene levels of ˜400 mbmsl. These orbital time-scale shifts are driven by expansions of the European ice sheet, which deflect westerly storm tracks southward to the Eastern Mediterranean, resulting in increased sea-air temperature gradients that invoke increased cyclogenesis, and enhanced moisture delivery to the Levant. The millennial-scale lake level drops associated with Greenland stadials are most extreme during Heinrich stadials and reflect abrupt cooling of the Eastern Mediterranean atmosphere and sea-surface, which weaken the cyclogenic rain engine and cause extreme Levant droughts. During the recovery from the effect of Heinrich stadials, the regional climate configuration resumed typical glacial conditions, with enhanced

  19. A Generalized Stability Analysis of the AMOC in Earth System Models: Implication for Decadal Variability and Abrupt Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fedorov, Alexey V. [Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States)

    2015-01-14

    The central goal of this research project was to understand the mechanisms of decadal and multi-decadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as related to climate variability and abrupt climate change within a hierarchy of climate models ranging from realistic ocean models to comprehensive Earth system models. Generalized Stability Analysis, a method that quantifies the transient and asymptotic growth of perturbations in the system, is one of the main approaches used throughout this project. The topics we have explored range from physical mechanisms that control AMOC variability to the factors that determine AMOC predictability in the Earth system models, to the stability and variability of the AMOC in past climates.

  20. A statistical modelling study of the abrupt millennial-scale climate changes focusing on the influence of external forcings

    CERN Document Server

    Mitsui, Takahito

    2015-01-01

    Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events are abrupt millennial-scale climate changes mainly detected in the North Atlantic region during the last glacial cycle. The frequency of the DO events varied in time, supposedly because of changes in background climate conditions. Here, we investigate the influences of external forcings on DO events with statistical modelling. We assume two types of generic stochastic dynamical systems models (double-well potential-type and oscillator-type), forced by the northern hemisphere summer insolation change and/or the global ice volume change. The models are calibrated by maximizing their likelihood and compared using the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). Among the models, the stochastic oscillator model forced by both insolation and ice volume changes is favored by the NGRIP calcium ion data. The BIC scores provide positive evidence for the ice volume forcing in the presence of the insolation forcing but weak evidence for the insolation forcing in the presence of the ice volume for...

  1. Abrupt climate-induced changes in carbonate burial in the Arabian Sea: Causes and consequences.

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Naidu, P.D.; Singh, A.D.; Ganeshram, R.S.; Bharti, S.K.

    experienced large declines in monsoon-driven productivity and greater penetration of Antarctica Intermediate Water (AAIW). Thus, pteropod preservation in the Arabian Sea appears to be linked to rapid climate change through atmospheric and oceanic...

  2. Abrupt climate change as an important agent of ecological change in the Northeast U.S. throughout the past 15,000 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shuman, Bryan N.; Newby, Paige; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.

    2009-08-01

    We use a series of tests to evaluate two competing hypotheses about the association of climate and vegetation trends in the northeastern United States over the past 15 kyrs. First, that abrupt climate changes on the scale of centuries had little influence on long-term vegetation trends, and second, that abrupt climate changes interacted with slower climate trends to determine the regional sequence of vegetation phases. Our results support the second. Large dissimilarity between temporally close fossil pollen samples indicates large vegetation changes within 500 years across >4° of latitude at ca 13.25-12.75, 12.0-11.5, 10.5, 8.25, and 5.25 ka. The evidence of vegetation change coincides with independent isotopic and sedimentary indicators of rapid shifts in temperature and moisture balance. In several cases, abrupt changes reversed long-term vegetation trends, such as when spruce ( Picea) and pine ( Pinus) pollen percentages rapidly declined to the north and increased to the south at ca 13.25-12.75 and 8.25 ka respectively. Abrupt events accelerated other long-term trends, such as a regional increase in beech ( Fagus) pollen percentages at 8.5-8.0 ka. The regional hemlock ( Tsuga) decline at ca 5.25 ka is unique among the abrupt events, and may have been induced by high climatic variability (i.e., repeated severe droughts from 5.7 to 2.0 ka); autoregressive ecological and evolutionary processes could have maintained low hemlock abundance until ca 2.0 ka. Delayed increases in chestnut ( Castanea) pollen abundance after 5.8 and 2.5 ka also illustrate the potential for multi-century climate variability to influence species' recruitment as well as mortality. Future climate changes will probably also rapidly initiate persistent vegetation change, particularly by acting as broad, regional-scale disturbances.

  3. Variations in atmospheric N2O concentration during abrupt climatic changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fluckiger; Dallenbach; Blunier; Stauffer; Stocker; Raynaud; Barnola

    1999-07-09

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important greenhouse gas that is presently increasing at a rate of 0.25 percent per year. Records measured along two ice cores from Summit in Central Greenland provide information about variations in atmospheric N2O concentration in the past. The record covering the past millennium reduces the uncertainty regarding the preindustrial concentration. Records covering the last glacial-interglacial transition and a fast climatic change during the last ice age show that the N2O concentration changed in parallel with fast temperature variations in the Northern Hemisphere. This provides important information about the response of the environment to global climatic changes.

  4. Coherent Sea Ice Variations in the Nordic Seas and Abrupt Greenland Climate Changes over Dansgaard-Oeschger Cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadatzki, H.; Berben, S.; Dokken, T.; Stein, R.; Fahl, K.; Jansen, E.

    2016-12-01

    Rapid changes in sea ice extent in the Nordic Seas may have played a crucial role in controlling the abruptness of ocean circulation and climate changes associated with Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) cycles during the last glacial (Li et al., 2010; Dokken et al., 2013). To investigate the role of sea ice for abrupt climate changes, we produced a sea ice record from the Norwegian Sea Core MD99-2284 at a temporal resolution approaching that of ice core records, covering four D-O cycles at ca. 32-41 ka. This record is based on the sea ice diatom biomarker IP25, open-water phytoplankton biomarker dinosterol and semi-quantitative phytoplankton-IP25 (PIP25) estimates. A detailed tephrochronology of MD99-2284 corroborates the tuning-based age model and independently constrains the GS9/GIS8 transition, allowing for direct comparison between our sediment and ice core records. For cold stadials we find extremely low fluxes of total organic carbon, dinosterol and IP25, which points to a general absence of open-water phytoplankton and ice algae production under a near-permanent sea ice cover. For the interstadials, in turn, all biomarker fluxes are strongly enhanced, reflecting a highly productive sea ice edge situation and implying largely open ocean conditions for the eastern Nordic Seas. As constrained by three tephra layers, we observe that the stadial-interstadial sea ice decline was rapid and may have induced a coeval abrupt northward shift in the Greenland precipitation moisture source as recorded in ice cores. The sea ice retreat also facilitated a massive heat release through deep convection in the previously stratified Nordic Seas, generating atmospheric warming of the D-O events. We thus conclude that rapid changes in sea ice extent in the Nordic Seas amplified oceanic reorganizations and were a key factor in controlling abrupt Greenland climate changes over D-O cycles. Dokken, T.M. et al., 2013. Paleoceanography 28, 491-502 Li, C. et al., 2010. Journ. Clim. 23, 5457-5475

  5. A Collaborative Proposal: Simulating and Understanding Abrupt Climate-Ecosystem Changes During Holocene with NCAR-CCSM3.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhengyu Liu, Bette Otto-Bliesner

    2013-02-01

    We have made significant progress in our proposed work in the last 4 years (3 years plus 1 year of no cost extension). In anticipation of the next phase of study, we have spent time on the abrupt changes since the last glacial maximum. First, we have performed further model-data comparison based on our baseline TRACE-21 simulation and made important progress towards the understanding of several major climate transitions. Second, we have made a significant effort in processing the model output of TRACE-21 and have put this output on a website for access by the community. Third, we have completed many additional sensitivity experiments. In addition, we have organized synthesis workshops to facilitate and promote transient model-data comparison for the international community. Finally, we have identified new areas of interest for Holocene climate changes.

  6. Quantifying Climate Feedbacks from Abrupt Changes in High-Latitude Trace-Gas Emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schlosser, Courtney Adam [MIT; Walter-Anthony, Katey [University of Alaska; Zhuang, Qianlai [Purdue University; Melillo, Jerry [Marine Biological Laboratory

    2013-04-26

    Our overall goal was to quantify the potential for threshold changes in natural emission rates of trace gases, particularly methane and carbon dioxide, from pan-arctic terrestrial systems under the spectrum of anthropogenically forced climate warming, and the extent to which these emissions provide a strong feedback mechanism to global climate warming. This goal is motivated under the premise that polar amplification of global climate warming will induce widespread thaw and degradation of the permafrost, and would thus cause substantial changes in the extent of wetlands and lakes, especially thermokarst (thaw) lakes, over the Arctic. Through a coordinated effort of field measurements, model development, and numerical experimentation with an integrated assessment model framework, we have investigated the following hypothesis: There exists a climate-warming threshold beyond which permafrost degradation becomes widespread and thus instigates strong and/or sharp increases in methane emissions (via thermokarst lakes and wetland expansion). These would outweigh any increased uptake of carbon (e.g. from peatlands) and would result in a strong, positive feedback to global climate warming.

  7. Two Degrees of Separation: Abrupt Climate Change and the Adverse Impact to US National Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-04-01

    encompasses the entire spectrum of changes associated with natural and anthropogenic climate catalysts . Temperature change in itself is not the most severe...TRENDS The increase in average global temperature has also been the catalyst for other environmental trends which have been observed on a global...desertification, taking marginally productive crop lands out of production. Global fisheries are affected by widespread coral bleaching , ocean acidification

  8. High-resolution Greenland Ice Core data show abrupt climate change happens in few years

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steffensen, Jørgen Peder; Andersen, Katrine Krogh; Bigler, Matthias

    2008-01-01

    The last two abrupt warmings at the onset of our present warm interglacial period, interrupted by the Younger Dryas cooling event, were investigated at high temporal resolution from the North Greenland Ice Core Project ice core. The deuterium excess, a proxy of Greenland precipitation moisture...

  9. Refining Patterns and Magnitude of Abrupt Climate Change During the Late Glacial Transition in the New Zealand Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandergoes, M.; Dieffenbacher-Krall, A.; Newnham, R.

    2005-12-01

    The origin of Southern Hemisphere millennial-scale climate events during the Late Glacial Transition remains a central issue of paleoclimate studies. The specific details of an in or out-of-phase relationship could support either Northern Hemisphere forcing or a Southern Hemisphere driver for thermohaline switches. Southern New Zealand, in the mid-latitudes of the southwest Pacific, has become a prime location for establishing inter-hemispheric relationships and hence for testing models of abrupt climate change. Sediments from a kettle-hole pond located in the climatically sensitive eastern margin of the Southern Alps, New Zealand, provide a continuous, isotopically dated, paleo-chironomid and pollen record of deglacial climate fluctuations since 18,000 cal BP. Paleochironomid analysis utilizes our newly developed chironomid-temperature inference model for the Southern Alps of New Zealand. Principal changes in Late Glacial Transition lithostratigraphy and pollen assemblages, notably the expansion of alpine grasses and herb taxa between c. 14,300 and 13,000 cal BP, are indicative of climate reversal and cooling that corresponds in time with the Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR). Cold temperature chironomid assemblages were more abundant prior to 13,000 cal BP. The abundance of temperate chironomid assemblages between 13,000 cal BP and the early Holocene does not show evidence of climate reversal associated with Younger Dryas (YD) cooling. These results confirm the timing of an ACR-like period of cooler climates in the southern New Zealand region and indicate that the YD chronozone was a period of warming with temperatures similar to those of the early Holocene. These sequences provide opportunities for comparing terrestrial changes in southern New Zealand with marine and Antarctic records and can help clarify the relationship between the hemispheres and hence further distinguish the coupling mechanisms.

  10. The role of the Asian winter monsoon in the rapid propagation of abrupt climate changes during the last deglaciation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Guoqiang; Sun, Qing; Zhu, Qingzeng; Shan, Yabing; Shang, Wenyu; Ling, Yuan; Su, Youliang; Xie, Manman; Wang, Xishen; Liu, Jiaqi

    2017-12-01

    High-resolution temperature records spanning the last deglaciation from low latitudes are scarce; however, they are important for understanding the rapid propagation of abrupt climate events throughout the Northern Hemisphere and the tropics. Here, we present a branched GDGTs-based temperature reconstruction from the sediments of Maar Lake Huguangyan in tropical China. The record reveals that the mean temperature during the Oldest Dryas was 17.8 °C, which was followed by a two-step increase of 2-3 °C to the Bølling-Allerød, a decrease to 19.8 °C during the Younger Dryas, and a rapid warming at the onset of the Holocene. The Oldest Dryas was about 2 °C warmer than the Younger Dryas. The reconstructed temperature was weighted towards the wintertime since the lake is monomictic and the mixing process in winter supplies nutrients from the lake bottom to the entire water column, greatly promoting biological productivity. In addition, the winter-biased temperature changes observed in the study are more distinctive than the summer-biased temperature records from extra-tropical regions of East Asia. This implies that the temperature decreases during abrupt climatic events were mainly a winter phenomenon. Within the limits of the dating uncertainties, the broadly similar pattern of winter-weighted temperature change observed in both tropical Lake Huguangyan and in Greenland ice cores indicates the occurrence of tightly-coupled interactions between high latitude ice sheets and land areas in the tropics. We suggest that the winter monsoon (especially cold surges) could play an important role in the rapid transmission of the temperature signal from the Arctic to the tropics.

  11. Abrupt Holocene climate change as an important factor for human migration in West Greenland

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    William J. D'Andrea; Yongsong Huang; Sherilyn C. Fritz; N. John Anderson

    2011-01-01

    .... However, the explanations for these large-scale human migrations are varied, including climatic factors, resistance to adaptation, economic marginalization, mercantile exploration, and hostile neighborhood interactions...

  12. Terrestrial Plant Biomarkers Preserved in Cariaco Basin Sediments: Records of Abrupt Tropical Vegetation Response to Rapid Climate Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughen, K. A.; Eglinton, T. I.; Makou, M.; Xu, L.; Sylva, S.

    2004-12-01

    versus δ 13C for Cariaco Basin and NW African leaf waxes indicate that biomarkers reflect real changes in local South American vegetation and not contamination from long-distance transport during cold windy climates. The precise temporal relationship between tropical vegetation shifts and climate changes is measured by direct comparison of terrestrial vegetation and climate proxies from the same core. Abrupt deglacial climate shifts in tropical and high-latitude North Atlantic regions were synchronous, whereas changes in tropical vegetation consistently lagged climate shifts by several decades.

  13. Transitions between multiple equilibria of paleo climate: a glimpse in to the dynamics of abrupt climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, David; Marshall, John; Ito, Takamitsu; McGee, David; Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo

    2017-04-01

    The dynamics regulating large climatic transitions such as glacial-interglacial cycles or DO events remains a puzzle. Forcings behind these transitions are not robustly identified and potential candidates (e.g. Milankovitch cycles, freshwater perturbations) often appear too weak to explain such dramatic transitions. A potential solution to this long-standing puzzle is that Earth's climate is endowed with multiple equilibrium states of global extent. Such states are commonly found in low-order or conceptual climate models, but it is unclear whether a system as complex as Earth's climate can sustain multiple equilibrium states. Here we report that multiple equilibrium states of the climate system are also possible in a complex, fully dynamical coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice GCM with idealized Earth-like geometry, resolved weather systems and a hydrological cycle. In our model, two equilibrium states coexist for the same parameters and external forcings: a Warm climate with a small Northern hemisphere sea ice cap and a large southern one and a Cold climate with large ice caps at both poles. The dynamical states of the Warm and Cold solutions exhibit striking similarities with our present-day climate and the climate of the Last Glacial Maximum, respectively. A carbon cycle model driven by the two dynamical states produces an atmospheric pCO2 draw-down of about 110 pm between the Warm and Cold states, close to Glacial-Interglacial differences found in ice cores. Mechanism controlling the existence of the multiple states and changes in the atmospheric CO2 will be briefly presented. Finally we willdescribe transition experiments from the Cold to the Warm state, focusing on the lead-lags in the system, notably between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres climates.

  14. An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and its Implications for United States National Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-10-01

    beef supply. Under such conditions, dairy cows are projected to produce 30% less milk, and new pests are likely to spread in fruit -growing areas...fish for entire winters. As a result, farmers were forced to slaughter their poorly fed livestock -- because of a lack of food both for the animals...from the tropics to the Northern Hemisphere, trying to thermodynamically balance the climatic system. Alternatively, the cooling of the Northern

  15. Do Quercus ilex woodlands undergo abrupt non-linear functional changes in response to human disturbance along a climatic gradient?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bochet, Esther; García-Fayos, Patricio; José Molina, Maria; Moreno de las Heras, Mariano; Espigares, Tíscar; Nicolau, Jose Manuel; Monleon, Vicente

    2017-04-01

    Theoretical models predict that drylands are particularly prone to suffer critical transitions with abrupt non-linear changes in their structure and functions as a result of the existing complex interactions between climatic fluctuations and human disturbances. However, so far, few studies provide empirical data to validate these models. We aim at determining how holm oak (Quercus ilex) woodlands undergo changes in their functions in response to human disturbance along an aridity gradient (from semi-arid to sub-humid conditions), in eastern Spain. For that purpose, we used (a) remote-sensing estimations of precipitation-use-efficiency (PUE) from enhanced vegetation index (EVI) observations performed in 231x231 m plots of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS); (b) biological and chemical soil parameter determinations (extracellular soil enzyme activity, soil respiration, nutrient cycling processes) from soil sampled in the same plots; (c) vegetation parameter determinations (ratio of functional groups) from vegetation surveys performed in the same plots. We analyzed and compared the shape of the functional change (in terms of PUE and soil and vegetation parameters) in response to human disturbance intensity for our holm oak sites along the aridity gradient. Overall, our results evidenced important differences in the shape of the functional change in response to human disturbance between climatic conditions. Semi-arid areas experienced a more accelerated non-linear decrease with an increasing disturbance intensity than sub-humid ones. The proportion of functional groups (herbaceous vs. woody cover) played a relevant role in the shape of the functional response of the holm oak sites to human disturbance.

  16. Insolation and Abrupt Climate Change Effects on the Western Pacific Maritime Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partin, J. W.; Quinn, T. M.; Shen, C.; Cardenas, M. B.; Siringan, F. P.; Banner, J. L.; lin, K.; Taylor, F. W.

    2012-12-01

    The response of the Asian-Australian monsoon system to changes in summer insolation over the Holocene is recorded in many monsoon-sensitive paleoclimate reconstructions. The response is commonly direct; more summer insolation leads to increased monsoon rainfall over land as captured in stalagmite δ18O records from Oman and China. We evaluate this direct response using a maritime stalagmite record from the island of Palawan, Philippines (10 N, 119 E). The wet season in Palawan occurs over the same months (June-October) as in Oman, India and China. Therefore, we expected the stalagmite δ18O record from Palawan, a proxy of rainfall, to have a similar trend of decreasing monsoon rainfall over the Holocene. However, the Holocene trend in stalagmite δ18O is opposite to that expected: rainfall increases over the Holocene. Our explanation for the Holocene trend observed at Palawan is that the increase in the maritime monsoon balances the reduction in the land monsoon; an explanation that is consistent with previously published coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model results. Seawater δ18O reconstructions from marine sediment cores in the western tropical Pacific contain a freshening trend over the Holocene, also supporting the hypothesis of increase maritime monsoon rainfall. However, the decrease in maritime monsoon rainfall during the Younger Dryas at Palawan matches that observed in Chinese stalagmite records, meeting our original expectation of a similar wet season response in the various Asian-Australian monsoon records. One explanation for the similar Younger Dryas response in these monsoon records is the influence of seasonal changes in sea ice coverage, as previously suggested. A stalagmite δ18O record from Borneo (~800 km SE of Palawan), which lacks evidence of the Younger Dryas, provides supporting evidence for this explanation.

  17. Quantifying Climate Feedbacks from Abrupt Changes in High-Latitude Trace-Gas Emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhuang, Qianlai

    2012-11-16

    During the three-year project period, Purdue University has specifically accomplished the following: revised the existing Methane Dynamics Model (MDM) to consider the effects of changes of atmospheric pressure; applied the methane dynamics model (MDM) to Siberian region to demonstrate that ebullition estimates could increase previous estimates of regional terrestrial CH{sub 4} emissions 3- to 7-fold in Siberia; Conducted an analysis of the carbon balance of the Arctic Basin from 1997 to 2006 to show that terrestrial areas of the Arctic were a net source of 41.5 Tg CH{sub 4} yr{sup 1} that increased by 0.6 Tg CH{sub 4} yr{sup 1} during the decade of analysis, a magnitude that is comparable with an atmospheric inversion of CH{sub 4}; improved the quantification of CH{sub 4} fluxes in the Arctic with inversion methods; evaluated AIRS CH4 retrieval data with a transport and inversion model and surface flux and aircraft data; to better quantify methane emissions from wetlands, we extended the MDM within a biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), to include a large-scale hydrology model, the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model; more recently, we developed a single box atmospheric chemistry model involving atmospheric methane (CH{sub 4}), carbon monoxide (CO) and radical hydroxyl (OH) to analyze atmospheric CH{sub 4} concentrations from 1984 to 2008.

  18. Possible Abrupt Changes in Ocean Circulation and Climate Due to the Changing Behavior of Ross Ice Streams, West Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tulaczyk, S.; Hunke, E. C.; Joughin, I.; Bougamont, M. H.; Vogel, S. W.

    2001-12-01

    One of the most important recent results of glaciological research in West Antarctica is the discovery that ice discharge from Ross ice streams may have been decreasing for at least as long as ~150 years. This decrease may be driven by changes in the ice-stream basal thermal regime (Kamb 2001). The magnitude of the decrease amounted to ~1 cm less of global sea level rise in the last century than we would have otherwise experienced. Changes in discharge from Ross ice streams may also have important implications for near future stability of the Ross Ice Shelf (RIS), which is nourished by these ice streams. If ice-stream discharge will continue its recent decrease, RIS will thin and may start to retreat or break up. Additional impetus for retreat or break up of the RIS may come from future climatic warming that appears to have helped to destabilize some smaller ice shelves along the Antarctic Penninsula. Break up of RIS alone would expose ~0.5 mln km2 of new sea surface area and could have significant implications for exchange of energy and water between the ocean and the atmosphere-cryosphere system in the region. Moreover, brine exclusion during sea-ice formation could turn this newly exposed polar continental shelf into a key source of bottom ocean water. This strengthened Antarctic Bottom Water formation could outcompete the North Atlantic source of Bottom Water and switch the global ocean into a new mode of thermohaline circulation, with global climatic implications (Denton, 2000). At the present time, we begin to quantify the effects of removing West Antarctic ice shelves on global thermohaline circulation using a coupled, global sea-ice-ocean circulation model developed at LANL. Qualitatively, however, there is a strong potential for significant impact of the recent changes in flow rates of the West Antarctic ice streams on regional and global atmospheric and ocean circulation.

  19. Abrupt Climate Change and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: sensitivity and non-linear response to Arctic/sub-Arctic freshwater pulses. Collaborative research. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hill, Christopher [MIT (Massachusetts Inst. of Technology), Cambridge, MA (United States)

    2015-06-15

    This project investigated possible mechanisms by which melt-water pulses can induce abrupt change in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) magnitude. AMOC magnitude is an important ingredient in present day climate. Previous studies have hypothesized abrupt reduction in AMOC magnitude in response to influxes of glacial melt water into the North Atlantic. Notable fresh-water influxes are associated with the terminus of the last ice age. During this period large volumes of melt water accumulated behind retreating ice sheets and subsequently drained rapidly when the ice weakened sufficiently. Rapid draining of glacial lakes into the North Atlantic is a possible origin of a number of paleo-record abrupt climate shifts. These include the Younger-Dryas cooling event and the 8,200 year cooling event. The studies undertaken focused on whether the mechanistic sequence by which glacial melt-water impacts AMOC, which then impacts Northern Hemisphere global mean surface temperature, is dynamically plausible. The work has implications for better understanding past climate stability. The work also has relevance for today’s environment, in which high-latitude ice melting in Greenland appears to be driving fresh water outflows at an accelerating pace.

  20. Six-decade temporal change and seasonal decomposition of climate variables in Lake Dianchi watershed (China): stable trend or abrupt shift?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Jing; Liang, Zhongyao; Liu, Yong; Guo, Huaicheng; He, Dan; Zhao, Lei

    2015-01-01

    Meteorological trend analysis is a useful tool for understanding climate change and can provide useful information on the possibility of future change. Lake Dianchi is the sixth largest freshwater body in China with serious eutrophication. Algal blooms outbreak was proven to be closely associated with some climatic factors in Lake Dianchi. It is therefore essential to explore the trends of climatic time series to understand the mechanism of climate change on lake eutrophication. We proposed an integrated method of Mann-Kendall (MK) test, seasonal-trend decomposition using locally weighted regression (LOESS) (STL), and regime shift index (RSI) to decompose the trend analysis and identify the stable and abrupt changes of some climate variables from 1951 to 2009. The variables include mean air temperature (Tm), maximum air temperatures (Tmax), minimum air temperatures (Tmin), precipitation (Prec), average relative humidity (Hum), and average wind speed (Wind). The results showed that (a) annual Tm, Tmax, and Tmin have a significant increasing trend with the increasing rates of 0.26, 0.15and 0.43 °C per decade, respectively; (b) annual precipitation has an insignificant decreasing trend with the decreasing rate of 3.17 mm per decade; (c) annual Hum has a significant decreasing trend in all seasons; and (d) there are two turning points for temperature rise around 1980 and 1995 and two abrupt change periods for precipitation with the extreme points appearing in 1963 and 1976. Temperature rise and precipitation decline in summer and autumn as well as wind speed decrease after the 1990s may be an important reason for algal blooms outbreak in Lake Dianchi. This study was expected to provide foundation and reference for regional water resource management.

  1. Abrupt Climate Change Around 850 Cal Bc From Central Africa To Northern Europe and The Role of Solar Uv

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Geel, B.; Renssen, H.; van der Plicht, J.

    Changing solar activity is a possible factor behind rapid climate shifts. Matching of high resolution sequences of uncalibrated 14C dates of organic deposits to the dendro- calibration curve can provide a precise core chronology. This method (14C wiggle matching) reveals relationships between atmospheric 14C variations and short-term climatic fluctuations caused by solar variations. Shifts to cool and wet climate types in the temperate zones correspond to phases of increasing and high values of delta 14C, pointing to a link between changing solar activity and climate change. In the temperate zones the transition from the Subboreal to the Subatlantic (ca 850 calendar years BC) represents a sudden and strong shift from a relatively dry and warm climate to a humid and cool episode. The climate shift is reflected in the plant macrofossil composition of NW European raised bogs, but there is also strong archaeological and dendroclimatological evidence. The climate shift occurs at the start of a sharp rise of the atmospheric 14C content, caused by a sudden decline of solar activity. Reduced solar wind permitted more cosmic rays to penetrate into the atmosphere, resulting in a higher production of the cosmogenic isotope 14C. In Cameroon and other sites in the Central African rain forest belt there was a drastic change in the vegetation cover as a consequence dryness after ca 850 cal BC. Shortly afterwards farmers migrated into the area, availing themselves of what was from the human standpoint a regional climatic improvement. A possible palaeoclimatological explanation for the dry-wet transition in the temperate zones, and the contemporaneous wet-dry transition in the tropics is the following: A reduction in solar activity (less solar UV) resulted in a decrease of stratospheric ozone, less absorption of warmth, an equatorward shift and intensification of the mid-latitude storm tracks, a constriction of the latitudinal extent of the Hadley Cell circulation and thus a weaker

  2. Ecological Regime Shifts in Lake Kälksjön, Sweden, in Response to Abrupt Climate Change Around the 8.2 ka Cooling Event

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Randsalu-Wendrup, L.; Conley, D.J.; Snowball, I.

    2012-01-01

    A detailed diatom record from Lake Ka¨ lksjo¨ n, westcentral Sweden, reveals two periods of abrupt ecological change correlative with the 8.2 ka cooling event. Using a combination of abrupt step changes and piece-wise linear regressions, the diatom data were analyzed for change points over time...

  3. The ACER pollen and charcoal database: a global resource to document vegetation and fire response to abrupt climate changes during the last glacial period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez Goñi, María Fernanda; Desprat, Stéphanie; Daniau, Anne-Laure; Bassinot, Frank C.; Polanco-Martínez, Josué M.; Harrison, Sandy P.; Allen, Judy R. M.; Anderson, R. Scott; Behling, Hermann; Bonnefille, Raymonde; Burjachs, Francesc; Carrión, José S.; Cheddadi, Rachid; Clark, James S.; Combourieu-Nebout, Nathalie; Mustaphi, Colin. J. Courtney; Debusk, Georg H.; Dupont, Lydie M.; Finch, Jemma M.; Fletcher, William J.; Giardini, Marco; González, Catalina; Gosling, William D.; Grigg, Laurie D.; Grimm, Eric C.; Hayashi, Ryoma; Helmens, Karin; Heusser, Linda E.; Hill, Trevor; Hope, Geoffrey; Huntley, Brian; Igarashi, Yaeko; Irino, Tomohisa; Jacobs, Bonnie; Jiménez-Moreno, Gonzalo; Kawai, Sayuri; Kershaw, A. Peter; Kumon, Fujio; Lawson, Ian T.; Ledru, Marie-Pierre; Lézine, Anne-Marie; Liew, Ping Mei; Magri, Donatella; Marchant, Robert; Margari, Vasiliki; Mayle, Francis E.; Merna McKenzie, G.; Moss, Patrick; Müller, Stefanie; Müller, Ulrich C.; Naughton, Filipa; Newnham, Rewi M.; Oba, Tadamichi; Pérez-Obiol, Ramón; Pini, Roberta; Ravazzi, Cesare; Roucoux, Katy H.; Rucina, Stephen M.; Scott, Louis; Takahara, Hikaru; Tzedakis, Polichronis C.; Urrego, Dunia H.; van Geel, Bas; Valencia, B. Guido; Vandergoes, Marcus J.; Vincens, Annie; Whitlock, Cathy L.; Willard, Debra A.; Yamamoto, Masanobu

    2017-09-01

    Quaternary records provide an opportunity to examine the nature of the vegetation and fire responses to rapid past climate changes comparable in velocity and magnitude to those expected in the 21st-century. The best documented examples of rapid climate change in the past are the warming events associated with the Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) cycles during the last glacial period, which were sufficiently large to have had a potential feedback through changes in albedo and greenhouse gas emissions on climate. Previous reconstructions of vegetation and fire changes during the D-O cycles used independently constructed age models, making it difficult to compare the changes between different sites and regions. Here, we present the ACER (Abrupt Climate Changes and Environmental Responses) global database, which includes 93 pollen records from the last glacial period (73-15 ka) with a temporal resolution better than 1000 years, 32 of which also provide charcoal records. A harmonized and consistent chronology based on radiometric dating (14C, 234U/230Th, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL), 40Ar/39Ar-dated tephra layers) has been constructed for 86 of these records, although in some cases additional information was derived using common control points based on event stratigraphy. The ACER database compiles metadata including geospatial and dating information, pollen and charcoal counts, and pollen percentages of the characteristic biomes and is archived in Microsoft AccessTM at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.870867.

  4. Work More? The 8.2 kaBP Abrupt Climate Change Event and the Origins of Irrigation Agriculture and Surplus Agro-Production in Mesopotamia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, H.

    2003-12-01

    The West Asian archaeological record is of sufficient transparency and resolution to permit observation of the social responses to the major Holocene abrupt climate change events at 8.2, 5.2 and 4.2 kaBP. The 8.2kaBP abrupt climate change event in West Asia was a three hundred year aridification and cooling episode. During this period rain-fed agriculture, established for over a millennium in northern Mesopotamia, suddenly collapsed. Irrigation agriculture, pastoral nomadism, or migration were the only subsistence alternatives for populations previously supported by cereal dry-farming. Irrigation agriculture was not, however, possible along the northern alluvial plains of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers, where incised riverbeds were several meters below plain level. Exploitable plain-level levees were only accessible in southern-most alluvial plain, at the head of the present-day Persian Gulf. The archaeological data from this region documents the first irrigation agriculture settlement of the plain during the 8.2 kaBP event. Irrigation agriculture provides about twice the yield of dry-farming in Mesopotamia, but at considerable labor costs relative to dry-farming. With irrigation agriculture surplus production was now available for deployment. But why work more? The 8.2 kaBP event provided the natural force for Mesopotamian irrigation agriculture and surplus production that were essential for the earliest class-formation and urban life.

  5. Abrupt change of the mid-summer climate in central east China by the influence of atmospheric pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Qun

    Following the great flooding of summer 1998, the mid-lower Yangtze Basin further suffered from another large flooding in summer 1999. Successive droughts through 3 recent summers (1997-1999) appeared in north China in addition, leading to an abnormal summer climate pattern of "north drought with south flooding". Such southward move of the summer monsoon rainy belt in east China started in the late 1970s-early 1980s. Its main cause may not be a purely natural climate change, but the acceleration of industrialization in east China could play a major role by emitting large volumes of SO 2, especially from the rapidly growing rural factories of east China. The annual release of SO 2 in China exceeded 20 Tg during 1992-1998, so dense sulfate aerosols covered the central east China which significantly reduced the sunlight. Although present estimates for the changes of clear sky global solar radiation may include some error, they show that the negative radiative forcing of sulfate aerosols in central east China by far exceeds the effect of greenhouse warming in summer. Hence the mid-summer monsoon rainy belt of east China has a trend moving southward in 21 recent years (1979-1999), showing the very sensitive characteristic of the summer monsoon system to the change in heat equilibrium of the land surface. The occurrence rate of summer climate pattern of "north drought with south flooding" in east China during 21 recent years is the largest since AD 950; such anomalous climate has brought large losses to China. The only possible way to reverse this southward trend of summer monsoon rainy belt is to significantly reduce air pollution by using more clean energy. Recently, the PRC has paid serious attention to this problem by adopting a series of countermeasures.

  6. Synchronous volcanic eruptions and abrupt climate change ∼17.7 ka plausibly linked by stratospheric ozone depletion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McConnell, Joseph R; Burke, Andrea; Dunbar, Nelia W; Köhler, Peter; Thomas, Jennie L; Arienzo, Monica M; Chellman, Nathan J; Maselli, Olivia J; Sigl, Michael; Adkins, Jess F; Baggenstos, Daniel; Burkhart, John F; Brook, Edward J; Buizert, Christo; Cole-Dai, Jihong; Fudge, T J; Knorr, Gregor; Graf, Hans-F; Grieman, Mackenzie M; Iverson, Nels; McGwire, Kenneth C; Mulvaney, Robert; Paris, Guillaume; Rhodes, Rachael H; Saltzman, Eric S; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P; Steffensen, Jørgen Peder; Taylor, Kendrick C; Winckler, Gisela

    2017-09-19

    Glacial-state greenhouse gas concentrations and Southern Hemisphere climate conditions persisted until ∼17.7 ka, when a nearly synchronous acceleration in deglaciation was recorded in paleoclimate proxies in large parts of the Southern Hemisphere, with many changes ascribed to a sudden poleward shift in the Southern Hemisphere westerlies and subsequent climate impacts. We used high-resolution chemical measurements in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide, Byrd, and other ice cores to document a unique, ∼192-y series of halogen-rich volcanic eruptions exactly at the start of accelerated deglaciation, with tephra identifying the nearby Mount Takahe volcano as the source. Extensive fallout from these massive eruptions has been found >2,800 km from Mount Takahe. Sulfur isotope anomalies and marked decreases in ice core bromine consistent with increased surface UV radiation indicate that the eruptions led to stratospheric ozone depletion. Rather than a highly improbable coincidence, circulation and climate changes extending from the Antarctic Peninsula to the subtropics-similar to those associated with modern stratospheric ozone depletion over Antarctica-plausibly link the Mount Takahe eruptions to the onset of accelerated Southern Hemisphere deglaciation ∼17.7 ka.

  7. Synchronous volcanic eruptions and abrupt climate change ˜17.7 ka plausibly linked by stratospheric ozone depletion

    Science.gov (United States)

    McConnell, Joseph R.; Burke, Andrea; Dunbar, Nelia W.; Köhler, Peter; Thomas, Jennie L.; Arienzo, Monica M.; Chellman, Nathan J.; Maselli, Olivia J.; Sigl, Michael; Adkins, Jess F.; Baggenstos, Daniel; Burkhart, John F.; Brook, Edward J.; Buizert, Christo; Cole-Dai, Jihong; Fudge, T. J.; Knorr, Gregor; Graf, Hans-F.; Grieman, Mackenzie M.; Iverson, Nels; McGwire, Kenneth C.; Mulvaney, Robert; Paris, Guillaume; Rhodes, Rachael H.; Saltzman, Eric S.; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P.; Steffensen, Jørgen Peder; Taylor, Kendrick C.; Winckler, Gisela

    2017-09-01

    Glacial-state greenhouse gas concentrations and Southern Hemisphere climate conditions persisted until ˜17.7 ka, when a nearly synchronous acceleration in deglaciation was recorded in paleoclimate proxies in large parts of the Southern Hemisphere, with many changes ascribed to a sudden poleward shift in the Southern Hemisphere westerlies and subsequent climate impacts. We used high-resolution chemical measurements in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide, Byrd, and other ice cores to document a unique, ˜192-y series of halogen-rich volcanic eruptions exactly at the start of accelerated deglaciation, with tephra identifying the nearby Mount Takahe volcano as the source. Extensive fallout from these massive eruptions has been found >2,800 km from Mount Takahe. Sulfur isotope anomalies and marked decreases in ice core bromine consistent with increased surface UV radiation indicate that the eruptions led to stratospheric ozone depletion. Rather than a highly improbable coincidence, circulation and climate changes extending from the Antarctic Peninsula to the subtropics—similar to those associated with modern stratospheric ozone depletion over Antarctica—plausibly link the Mount Takahe eruptions to the onset of accelerated Southern Hemisphere deglaciation ˜17.7 ka.

  8. The ACER pollen and charcoal database: a global resource to document vegetation and fire response to abrupt climate changes during the last glacial period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. F. Sánchez Goñi

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Quaternary records provide an opportunity to examine the nature of the vegetation and fire responses to rapid past climate changes comparable in velocity and magnitude to those expected in the 21st-century. The best documented examples of rapid climate change in the past are the warming events associated with the Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O cycles during the last glacial period, which were sufficiently large to have had a potential feedback through changes in albedo and greenhouse gas emissions on climate. Previous reconstructions of vegetation and fire changes during the D–O cycles used independently constructed age models, making it difficult to compare the changes between different sites and regions. Here, we present the ACER (Abrupt Climate Changes and Environmental Responses global database, which includes 93 pollen records from the last glacial period (73–15 ka with a temporal resolution better than 1000 years, 32 of which also provide charcoal records. A harmonized and consistent chronology based on radiometric dating (14C, 234U∕230Th, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL, 40Ar∕39Ar-dated tephra layers has been constructed for 86 of these records, although in some cases additional information was derived using common control points based on event stratigraphy. The ACER database compiles metadata including geospatial and dating information, pollen and charcoal counts, and pollen percentages of the characteristic biomes and is archived in Microsoft AccessTM at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.870867.

  9. Detecting abrupt dynamic change based on changes in the fractal properties of spatial images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Qunqun; He, Wenping; Gu, Bin; Jiang, Yundi

    2017-10-01

    Many abrupt climate change events often cannot be detected timely by conventional abrupt detection methods until a few years after these events have occurred. The reason for this lag in detection is that abundant and long-term observational data are required for accurate abrupt change detection by these methods, especially for the detection of a regime shift. So, these methods cannot help us understand and forecast the evolution of the climate system in a timely manner. Obviously, spatial images, generated by a coupled spatiotemporal dynamical model, contain more information about a dynamic system than a single time series, and we find that spatial images show the fractal properties. The fractal properties of spatial images can be quantitatively characterized by the Hurst exponent, which can be estimated by two-dimensional detrended fluctuation analysis (TD-DFA). Based on this, TD-DFA is used to detect an abrupt dynamic change of a coupled spatiotemporal model. The results show that the TD-DFA method can effectively detect abrupt parameter changes in the coupled model by monitoring the changing in the fractal properties of spatial images. The present method provides a new way for abrupt dynamic change detection, which can achieve timely and efficient abrupt change detection results.

  10. The slowdown of the North Atlantic Gulf stream: an economic perspective on adaptation. In: What if... abrupt and extreme climage change?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ierland, van E.C.

    2008-01-01

    This NWO publication consists the following contributions: Exploring governmental and victim responsibilities in view of abrupt climate change in North-Western Europe; Coping with Extreme Events: Institutional Flocking; Abrupt climate change: Analogies in impacts and coping mechanisms; Catching a

  11. A simple conceptual model of abrupt glacial climate events

    CERN Document Server

    Braun, H; Christl, M; Chialvo, D R

    2008-01-01

    Here we use a very simple conceptual model in an attempt to reduce essential parts of the complex nonlinearity of abrupt glacial climate changes (the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger events) to a few simple principles, namely (i) a threshold process, (ii) an overshooting in the stability of the system and (iii) a millennial-scale relaxation. By comparison with a so-called Earth system model of intermediate complexity (CLIMBER-2), in which the events represent oscillations between two climate states corresponding to two fundamentally different modes of deep-water formation in the North Atlantic, we demonstrate that the conceptual model captures fundamental aspects of the nonlinearity of the events in that model. We use the conceptual model in order to reproduce and reanalyse nonlinear resonance mechanisms that were already suggested in order to explain the characteristic time scale of Dansgaard-Oeschger events. In doing so we identify a new form of stochastic resonance (i.e. an overshooting stochastic resonance) a...

  12. Gradual onset and recovery of the Younger Dryas abrupt climate event in the tropics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partin, J W; Quinn, T M; Shen, C-C; Okumura, Y; Cardenas, M B; Siringan, F P; Banner, J L; Lin, K; Hu, H-M; Taylor, F W

    2015-09-02

    Proxy records of temperature from the Atlantic clearly show that the Younger Dryas was an abrupt climate change event during the last deglaciation, but records of hydroclimate are underutilized in defining the event. Here we combine a new hydroclimate record from Palawan, Philippines, in the tropical Pacific, with previously published records to highlight a difference between hydroclimate and temperature responses to the Younger Dryas. Although the onset and termination are synchronous across the records, tropical hydroclimate changes are more gradual (>100 years) than the abrupt (10-100 years) temperature changes in the northern Atlantic Ocean. The abrupt recovery of Greenland temperatures likely reflects changes in regional sea ice extent. Proxy data and transient climate model simulations support the hypothesis that freshwater forced a reduction in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, thereby causing the Younger Dryas. However, changes in ocean overturning may not produce the same effects globally as in Greenland.

  13. Neanderthal and Anatomically Modern Human interaction with Abrupt Late Pleistocene Environments - the data is finally good enough to talk about climate change!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blockley, Simon; Schreve, Danielle

    2015-04-01

    The timing and nature of the appearance of Anatomically Modern Humans (AMH) in Europe, their interaction with, and eventual morphological replacement of Neanderthals (despite some shared genetic heritage) has been a matter of intense debate within archaeology for a generation. This period, often termed the Middle to Upper Palaeolithic transition occurs in the latter part of Marine Isotope Stage Three and in recent decades archaeological interest has been complemented by the input of palaeoclimate scientists, over the role of abrupt climate change in this process. This was due to the recognition from ice core and marine proxy archives, in particular, of periods if intense cooling, correlated to the marine record of Heinrich ice rafted debris layers from the Atlantic. As a result of these collaborations between the archaeological and palaeoenvironmental communities various drivers have been proposed for the Middle to Upper Palaeolithic Transition that include: (1) resource competition between two species occupying similar niches; (2) the impact of repeated cycles of Heinrich event cooling, leading to the decline and eventual disappearance of the Neanderthal populations, leaving a new region open for AMH exploitation; and (3) catastrophic impacts of large volcanic eruptions on Neanderthal populations. Attempts to address the above hypotheses have been dogged by the chronological precision available for a number of key archives. The accuracy of many of the radiocarbon ages that underpin the chronology for both Neanderthal and AMH archaeological sites has been questioned1. This has been exacerbated by uncertainties over the influence of variability in the radiocarbon marine reservoir effect on marine palaeoclimate records and a marine dominated radiocarbon calibration curve. Additionally, the counting uncertainties of the master Greenland palaeoclimate archives are also large by this time, meaning palaeoclimate interpretation can be equivocal. However, several research

  14. The ACER pollen and charcoal database: a global resource to document vegetation and fire response to abrupt climate changes during the last glacial period

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    María Fernanda Sánchez Goñi; Stéphanie Desprat; Anne-Laure Daniau; Frank C Bassinot; Josué M Polanco-Martínez; Sandy P Harrison; Judy R M Allen; R Scott Anderson; Hermann Behling; Raymonde Bonnefille; Francesc Burjachs; José S Carrión; Rachid Cheddadi; James S Clark; Nathalie Combourieu-Nebout; Colin J Courtney Mustaphi; Georg H Debusk; Lydie M Dupont; Jemma M Finch; William J Fletcher; Marco Giardini; Catalina González; William D Gosling; Laurie D Grigg; Eric C Grimm; Ryoma Hayashi; Karin Helmens; Linda E Heusser; Trevor Hill; Geoffrey Hope; Brian Huntley; Yaeko Igarashi; Tomohisa Irino; Bonnie Jacobs; Gonzalo Jiménez-Moreno; Sayuri Kawai; A Peter Kershaw; Fujio Kumon; Ian T Lawson; Marie-Pierre Ledru; Anne-Marie Lézine; Ping Mei Liew; Donatella Magri; Robert Marchant; Vasiliki Margari; Francis E Mayle; G Merna McKenzie; Patrick Moss; Stefanie Müller; Ulrich C Müller; Filipa Naughton; Rewi M Newnham; Tadamichi Oba; Ramón Pérez-Obiol; Roberta Pini; Cesare Ravazzi; Katy H Roucoux; Stephen M Rucina; Louis Scott; Hikaru Takahara; Polichronis C Tzedakis; Dunia H Urrego; Bas van Geel; B Guido Valencia; Marcus J Vandergoes; Annie Vincens; Cathy L Whitlock; Debra A Willard; Masanobu Yamamoto

    2017-01-01

    Quaternary records provide an opportunity to examine the nature of the vegetation and fire responses to rapid past climate changes comparable in velocity and magnitude to those expected in the 21st-century...

  15. Climate change: a primer

    OpenAIRE

    Khanna, Dr. Perminder; Aneja, Reenu

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Climate has inherent variability manifesting in gradual changes in temperature, precipitation and sea-level rise. The paper entitled “Climate Change: A Primer” attempts to analyse the policy response and adaptation to the need to address climate change at the international and domestic level both. Intense variations in climate would increase the risk of abrupt and non-linear changes in the ecosystem, impacting their function, biodiversity and productivity. The policy initiations and ...

  16. A new method for abrupt change detection in dynamic structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. P. He

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Based on Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA, we propose a new method – Moving Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MDFA – to detect abrupt change in dynamic structures. Application of this technique shows that this method may be of use in detecting time-instants of abrupt change in dynamic structures and we even find that the MDFA results almost do not depend on length of subseries, and are less affected by noise.

  17. Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sgubin, Giovanni; Swingedouw, Didier; Drijfhout, Sybren; Mary, Yannick; Bennabi, Amine

    2017-02-15

    Observations over the 20th century evidence no long-term warming in the subpolar North Atlantic (SPG). This region even experienced a rapid cooling around 1970, raising a debate over its potential reoccurrence. Here we assess the risk of future abrupt SPG cooling in 40 climate models from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Contrary to the long-term SPG warming trend evidenced by most of the models, 17.5% of the models (7/40) project a rapid SPG cooling, consistent with a collapse of the local deep-ocean convection. Uncertainty in projections is associated with the models' varying capability in simulating the present-day SPG stratification, whose realistic reproduction appears a necessary condition for the onset of a convection collapse. This event occurs in 45.5% of the 11 models best able to simulate the observed SPG stratification. Thus, due to systematic model biases, the CMIP5 ensemble as a whole underestimates the chance of future abrupt SPG cooling, entailing crucial implications for observation and adaptation policy.

  18. Causes and projections of abrupt climate-driven ecosystem shifts in the North Atlantic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beaugrand, G.; Edwards, M.; Brander, Keith

    2008-01-01

    Warming of the global climate is now unequivocal and its impact on Earth' functional units has become more apparent. Here, we show that marine ecosystems are not equally sensitive to climate change and reveal a critical thermal boundary where a small increase in temperature triggers abrupt...... and carrying capacity of ecosystems and may, combined with fishing, precipitate the reduction of some stocks of Atlantic cod already severely impacted by exploitation. These findings offer a way to anticipate major ecosystem changes and to propose adaptive strategies for marine exploited resources such as cod...... in order to minimize social and economic consequences....

  19. Anticipatory adjustments to abrupt changes of opposing forces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rapp, Katrin; Heuer, Herbert

    2015-01-01

    Anticipatory adjustments to abrupt load changes are based on task-specific predictive information. The authors asked whether anticipatory adjustments to abrupt offsets of horizontal forces are related to expectancy. In two experiments participants held a position against an opposing force or moved against it. At force offset they had to stop rapidly. Duration of the opposing force or distance moved against it varied between blocks of trials and was constant within each block, or it varied from trial to trial. These two variations resulted in opposite changes of the expectancy of force offset with the passage of time or distance. With constant force durations or distances in each block of trials, anticipatory adjustments tended to be poorest with the longest duration or distance, but with variable force durations or distances they tended to be best with the longest duration or distance. Thus anticipatory adjustments were related to expectancy rather than time or distance per se. Anticipatory adjustments resulted in shorter peak amplitudes of the involuntary movements, accompanied by longer movement times in Experiment 1 and faster movement times in Experiment 2. Thus, for different states of the limb at abrupt dynamic changes anticipatory adjustments involve different mechanisms that modulate different mechanical characteristics.

  20. Global Climate Change: Threat Multiplier for AFRICOM?

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Yackle, Terri A

    2007-01-01

    .... Whatever the catalyst for this abrupt climate change, stability for Africa hinges upon mitigating the effects of global climate change to prevent future conflicts such as Darfur, and the instability...

  1. Climatic Change,

    Science.gov (United States)

    diagnoses of the mechanisms of both past and possible future climatic changes , an activity which has underscored the need for more complete...documentation of both recent instrumentally observed climatic changes and of those inferred from historical and paleoclimatic sources.

  2. A novel method for detecting abrupt dynamic change based on the changing Hurst exponent of spatial images

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, W.

    2016-12-01

    The climate system is a classical spatiotemporal evolutionary dynamic system with spatiotemporal correlation characteristics. Based on this, two-dimensional detrended fluctuation analysis (TD-DFA) is used to estimate the Hurst exponent of two-dimensional images. Then, we monitored the change of the Hurst exponent of the images to identify an abrupt dynamic change. We tested the performance of this method with a coupled spatiotemporal dynamic model and found that it works well. The changes in the Hurst exponents of the spatial images are stable when there is no dynamic change in the system, but there will be a clear non-stationary change of the Hurst exponents; for example, the abrupt mean values change if the dynamics of the system change. Thus, the TD-DFA method is suitable for detecting an abrupt dynamic change from natural and artificial images. The spatial images of the NCEP reanalysis of the daily average temperature exhibited fractality. Based on this, we found three non-stationary changes in the Hurst exponents for the NCEP reanalysis of the daily average temperature or for the annual average temperature in the region (60°S-60°N). It can be concluded that the climate system may have incurred three dynamic changes since 1961 on decadal timescales, i.e., in approximately the mid-1970s, the mid-1980s, and between the late 1990s and the early 2000s.

  3. Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined...... and evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change...... and illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate...

  4. Greenland climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Masson-Delmotte, Valérie; Swingedouw, Didier; Landais, Amaëlle

    2012-01-01

    Climate archives available from deep-sea and marine shelf sediments, glaciers, lakes and ice cores in and around Greenland allow us to place the current trends in regional climate, ice sheet dynamics, and land surface changes in a broader perspective. We show that during the last decade (2000s...... regional climate and ice sheet dynamics. The magnitude and rate of future changes in Greenland temperature, in response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, may be faster than any past abrupt events occurring under interglacial conditions. Projections indicate that within one century Greenland may......), atmospheric and sea-surface temperatures are reaching levels last encountered millennia ago when northern high latitude summer insolation was higher due to a different orbital configuration. Concurrently, records from lake sediments in southern Greenland document major environmental and climatic conditions...

  5. Climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, Thomas M.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change (including climate variability) refers to regional or global changes in mean climate state or in patterns of climate variability over decades to millions of years often identified using statistical methods and sometimes referred to as changes in long-term weather conditions (IPCC, 2012). Climate is influenced by changes in continent-ocean configurations due to plate tectonic processes, variations in Earth’s orbit, axial tilt and precession, atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, solar variability, volcanism, internal variability resulting from interactions between the atmosphere, oceans and ice (glaciers, small ice caps, ice sheets, and sea ice), and anthropogenic activities such as greenhouse gas emissions and land use and their effects on carbon cycling.

  6. Detecting and isolating abrupt changes in linear switching systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nazari, Sohail; Zhao, Qing; Huang, Biao

    2015-04-01

    In this paper, a novel fault detection and isolation (FDI) method for switching linear systems is developed. All input and output signals are assumed to be corrupted with measurement noises. In the proposed method, a 'lifted' linear model named as stochastic hybrid decoupling polynomial (SHDP) is introduced. The SHDP model governs the dynamics of the switching linear system with all different modes, and is independent of the switching sequence. The error-in-variable (EIV) representation of SHDP is derived, and is used for the fault residual generation and isolation following the well-adopted local approach. The proposed FDI method can detect and isolate the fault-induced abrupt changes in switching models' parameters without estimating the switching modes. Furthermore, in this paper, the analytical expressions of the gradient vector and Hessian matrix are obtained based on the EIV SHDP formulation, so that they can be used to implement the online fault detection scheme. The performance of the proposed method is then illustrated by simulation examples.

  7. Climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marchal, V.; Dellink, R.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Clapp, C.; Chateau, J.; Magné, B.; Lanzi, E.; Vliet, J. van

    2012-01-01

    This chapter analyses the policy implications of the climate change challenge. Are current emission reduction pledges made in Copenhagen/Cancun enough to stabilise the climate and limit global average temperature increase to 2 oC? If not, what will the consequences be? What alternative growth

  8. Changing Trends and Abrupt Features of Extreme Temperature in Mainland China from 1960 to 2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shibo Fang

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Studies based on the 10th (90th percentiles as thresholds have been presented to assess moderate extremes in China and globally. However, there has been notably little research on the occurrences of high extremes of warm days and hot days (TX95p and TX99p and cold nights and very cold nights (TN05p and TN01p, based on the 95th and 99th (5th and 1st percentiles of the daily maximum (minimum temperature data at a certain station in the period 1971–2000, which have more direct impacts on society and the ecosystem. The trends analyses of cool nights or warm days are based upon the hypothesis that expects a linear trend and no abrupt change. However, abrupt changes in the climate, especially in extreme temperatures, have been pointed to as a major threat to ecosystem services. This study demonstrates that (1 the mean frequencies of TX95p and TX99p increased by 1.80 day/10 year and 0.62 day/10 year, respectively, and that those of TN05p and TN01p decreased by 3.18 day/10 year and 1.01 day/10 year, respectively, in mainland China. Additionally, the TX95p and TX99p increased significantly by 50.42% and 58.21%, respectively, while the TN05p and TN01p of all of the stations decreased significantly by 83.76% and 76.48%, respectively. Finally, (2 the TX95p and TX99p trends underwent abrupt changes in the 1990s or 2000s, but the trends of TN05p and TN01p experienced abrupt changes in the late 1970s and early 1980s. After the abrupt change points, the trend of warm and hot days increased more rapidly than before in most regions, but the trend of cold days and very cold days decreased more slowly than before in most regions, which indicates a greater risk of heat waves in the future.

  9. Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... and water. More extreme weather events, such as hurricanes and wildfires. These can cause death, injuries, stress, and mental health problems. Researchers are studying the best ways to lessen climate change and reduce its impact on our health. NIH: ...

  10. Abrupt environmental shift associated with changes in the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Cape anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus spawners in the southern Benguela showed an eastward shift in their distribution on the Agulhas Bank that occurred abruptly in 1996 and has since persisted. We assessed whether this shift was environmentally mediated by examining sea surface temperature data from different ...

  11. Abrupt changes in rainfall in the Eastern area of La Pampa Province, Argentina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez, S.; Sierra, E.; López, E.; Nizzero, G.; Momo, F.; Massobrio, M.

    2011-01-01

    The eastern area of La Pampa Province, Argentina, lies in a transition zone between the humid temperate climate stretching east and the steppe climate stretching west. The area is thus very sensitive to abrupt changes in rainfall. In order to determine the long-term occurrence of such phenomena, long-term annual precipitation series (1921-2004) from 17 stations in the study area were analyzed using the Buishand and Pettitt tests. Results showed a sharp increase in annual rainfall at the southern stations in the 1960s and at the northern and central stations in the 1970s. Increased rainfall can be considered one of the reasons for the subsequent expansion in land planted to crops in the region. While a rapid increase in rainfall can be seen as positive, some researchers believe that if an abrupt decrease in rainfall occurred in future and continued for long, the carrying capacity of the environment could be exceeded, leading to decreased production and environmental degradation.

  12. Abrupt Strategy Change Underlies Gradual Performance Change: Bayesian Hierarchical Models of Component and Aggregate Strategy Use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wynton, Sarah K. A.; Anglim, Jeromy

    2017-01-01

    While researchers have often sought to understand the learning curve in terms of multiple component processes, few studies have measured and mathematically modeled these processes on a complex task. In particular, there remains a need to reconcile how abrupt changes in strategy use can co-occur with gradual changes in task completion time. Thus,…

  13. Abrupt Nonlinear Shifts in Arctic Climate since the Holocene Thermal Maximum Recorded in Otter Lake, South-Central Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bochicchio, C. J.; Yu, Z.

    2010-12-01

    Many paleoclimatic records show a gradual, near-linear cooling trend across the northern hemisphere since the Holocene Thermal Maximum, in response to an orbitally-driven gradual decline in summer insolation during the Holocene. Contrary to insolation trends, a few high-resolution records from high northern latitudes appear to indicate abrupt shifts in climate mean states. This suggests that Earth's climate system is capable of “step-like” transitions initiated when insolation thresholds are crossed and strong climatic feedbacks are triggered. In order to better understand the extent of possible nonlinear responses and forcing mechanisms, more high-resolution climate records are needed. In particular, records from Arctic regions are especially useful because Arctic climate feedbacks are stronger than in lower latitude regions and are well-documented. Here we present a multi-proxy record from a 4.8-m-long sediment core collected from Otter Lake, a small perched, precipitation-fed marl (carbonate-rich) lake (~300 m2 surface area, ~6 m depth), in south-central Alaska. The lake was formed more than 14,000 years ago after ice retreat. We combined a modern calibration study utilizing the relationship between lake depth and sediment composition along water-depth transects with down-core analysis of sedimentary proxies to reconstruct Holocene lake-level and climate changes. We found three distinct periods of major sediment changes: (1) the early Holocene: predominately carbonate-rich sediments (~70%) with low variability in sediment composition; (2) mid-Holocene: organic-rich sediments with low carbonate content (~20%) and very low variability; and (3) late Holocene: high average carbonate content (~50%) with the greatest variability in sediment composition (between 10% and 66% carbonate). We interpret the change in sediment composition to reflect lake-level change, with high carbonate content corresponding to shallow water, as observed from analysis of modern

  14. Abrupt strategy change underlies gradual performance change: Bayesian hierarchical models of component and aggregate strategy use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wynton, Sarah K A; Anglim, Jeromy

    2017-10-01

    While researchers have often sought to understand the learning curve in terms of multiple component processes, few studies have measured and mathematically modeled these processes on a complex task. In particular, there remains a need to reconcile how abrupt changes in strategy use can co-occur with gradual changes in task completion time. Thus, the current study aimed to assess the degree to which strategy change was abrupt or gradual, and whether strategy aggregation could partially explain gradual performance change. It also aimed to show how Bayesian methods could be used to model the effect of practice on strategy use. To achieve these aims, 162 participants completed 15 blocks of practice on a complex computer-based task-the Wynton-Anglim booking (WAB) task. The task allowed for multiple component strategies (i.e., memory retrieval, information reduction, and insight) that could also be aggregated to a global measure of strategy use. Bayesian hierarchical models were used to compare abrupt and gradual functions of component and aggregate strategy use. Task completion time was well-modeled by a power function, and global strategy use explained substantial variance in performance. Change in component strategy use tended to be abrupt, whereas change in global strategy use was gradual and well-modeled by a power function. Thus, differential timing of component strategy shifts leads to gradual changes in overall strategy efficiency, and this provides one reason for why smooth learning curves can co-occur with abrupt changes in strategy use. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  15. Detecting Abrupt Change of Streamflow at Lintong Station of Wei River

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingjing Fan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available According to abrupt diagnosis of runoff, two methods, that is, moving approximate entropy and moving permutation entropy, are used to analyse the abrupt year of the daily river runoff from 1961 to 2006 at Lintong station of Wei River in Loess Plateau. The runoff series are divided into 4 stages. With the analysis of hydrological characters of different stages, we find that there are abrupt changes at the three years 1972, 1983, and 2002. The result shows that moving approximate entropy and moving permutation entropy methods are useful tools for abrupt diagnosis of runoff. The attribution of abrupt change at the Lintong runoff series is primarily due to the reduced precipitation, increased water conservancy project, increased water consumption of industry and agriculture, significantly decreased groundwater table, and increased evaporation.

  16. Climatic changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Majgaard Krarup, Jonna

    2014-01-01

    According to Cleo Paskal climatic changes are environmental changes. They are global, but their impact is local, and manifests them selves in the landscape, in our cities, in open urban spaces, and in everyday life. The landscape and open public spaces will in many cases be the sites where...... measurements to handle climatic changes will be positioned and enacted. Measurements taken are mostly adaptive or aimed to secure and protect existing values, buildings, infrastructure etc., but will in many cases also affects functions, meaning and peoples identification with the landscape and the open urban...... doesn’t become place, and thus not experienced as a common good. Many Danish towns are situated by the sea; this has historically supported a strong spatial, functional and economically identity of the cities, with which people have identified. Effects of globalization processes and a rising sea level...

  17. Abrupt response of chemical weathering to Late Quaternary hydroclimate changes in northeast Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastian, Luc; Revel, Marie; Bayon, Germain; Dufour, Aurélie; Vigier, Nathalie

    2017-03-14

    Chemical weathering of silicate rocks on continents acts as a major sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide and has played an important role in the evolution of the Earth's climate. However, the magnitude and the nature of the links between weathering and climate are still under debate. In particular, the timescale over which chemical weathering may respond to climate change is yet to be constrained at the continental scale. Here we reconstruct the relationships between rainfall and chemical weathering in northeast Africa for the last 32,000 years. Using lithium isotopes and other geochemical proxies in the clay-size fraction of a marine sediment core from the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, we show that chemical weathering in the Nile Basin fluctuated in parallel with the monsoon-related climatic evolution of northeast Africa. We also evidence strongly reduced mineral alteration during centennial-scale regional drought episodes. Our findings indicate that silicate weathering may respond as quickly as physical erosion to abrupt hydroclimate reorganization on continents. Consequently, we anticipate that the forthcoming hydrological disturbances predicted for northeast Africa may have a major impact on chemical weathering patterns and soil resources in this region.

  18. Extrinsic regime shifts drive abrupt changes in regeneration dynamics at upper treeline in the Rocky Mountains, U.S.A.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliott, Grant P

    2012-07-01

    Given the widespread and often dramatic influence of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems, it is increasingly common for abrupt threshold changes to occur, yet explicitly testing for climate and ecological regime shifts is lacking in climatically sensitive upper treeline ecotones. In this study, quantitative evidence based on empirical data is provided to support the key role of extrinsic, climate-induced thresholds in governing the spatial and temporal patterns of tree establishment in these high-elevation environments. Dendroecological techniques were used to reconstruct a 420-year history of regeneration dynamics within upper treeline ecotones along a latitudinal gradient (approximately 44-35 degrees N) in the Rocky Mountains. Correlation analysis was used to assess the possible influence of minimum and maximum temperature indices and cool-season (November-April) precipitation on regional age-structure data. Regime-shift analysis was used to detect thresholds in tree establishment during the entire period of record (1580-2000), temperature variables significantly Correlated with establishment during the 20th century, and cool-season precipitation. Tree establishment was significantly correlated with minimum temperature during the spring (March-May) and cool season. Regime-shift analysis identified an abrupt increase in regional tree establishment in 1950 (1950-1954 age class). Coincident with this period was a shift toward reduced cool-season precipitation. The alignment of these climate conditions apparently triggered an abrupt increase in establishment that was unprecedented during the period of record. Two main findings emerge from this research that underscore the critical role of climate in governing regeneration dynamics within upper treeline ecotones. (1) Regional climate variability is capable of exceeding bioclimatic thresholds, thereby initiating synchronous and abrupt changes in the spatial and temporal patterns of tree establishment at broad

  19. Spatiotemporal Variation and Abrupt Change Analysis of Temperature from 1960 to 2012 in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanyu Yin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on a monthly dataset of temperature time series (1960–2012 in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China (HHHPC, spatiotemporal variation and abrupt change analysis of temperature were examined by moving average, linear regression, spline interpolation, Mann-Kendall test, and moving t-test. Major conclusions were listed as follows. (1 Annual and seasonal temperature increased with different rates on the process of fluctuating changes during 1960~2012. The upward trend was 0.22°C 10a−1 for annual temperature, while it was very significant in winter (0.34°C 10a−1 and spring (0.31°C 10a−1, moderately significant in autumn (0.21°C 10a−1, and nonsignificant in summer (0.05°C 10a−1. (2 The spatial changes of annual and seasonal temperature were similar. The temperature increased significantly in Beijing and its adjacent regions, while it was nonsignificant in the central and southern regions. (3 The spring, autumn, winter, and annual temperature had warm abrupt change. The abrupt change time for winter temperature was in the late 1970s, while it was in the late 1980s and early 1990s for spring, autumn, and annual temperature. (4 Macroscopic effects of global and regional climate warming and human activities were probably responsible for the temperature changes. The climate warming would influence the hydrological cycle and agricultural crops in the study area.

  20. Ecosystem resilience to abrupt late Quaternary change in continental southern Siberia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harding, Poppy; Mackay, Anson; Bezrukova, Elena; Shchetnikov, Alexander

    2017-04-01

    Quaternary climate variability is dominated by long term orbital forcing along with abrupt sub-Milankovitch events on the scales of millennia to centuries, driven by internal feedback mechanisms, volcanic forcing and fluctuating solar activity. Although these are well documented in the North Atlantic region, their expression is poorly understood in Siberia, particularly in relation to abrupt climatic events. Siberia has the world's highest level of continentality offering an opportunity to study changes remote from oceanic influences and improving understanding of interactions between the Siberian High and other atmospheric systems including the Aleutian Low, Arctic oscillation and Icelandic Low1 and ENSO2. Understanding of palaeoenvironmental change in Siberia is essential due to the region's high sensitivity to climatic change, with warming rates considerably higher than the global average over the past 50 years3, triggering significant environmental changes, including permafrost degradation, shifts in the forest-steppe biome, increases in forest fires and warming of seasonally ice-covered lakes. Additionally, the region provides essential palaeoenvironmental context for early hominins, for example at globally important sites such as Denisova cave4, and megafauna extinctions5. This presentation outlines ongoing work at Lake Baunt, SE Siberia including: key quaternary climate forcings, the site and its regional context, the key methods and preliminary results. These include a dated record back to ˜30ka BP (based on multiple 14C dates and Bayesian age modelling), multiproxy indicators of palaeoproductivity (e.g. biogenic silica and diatom analyses) and lake mixing regimes (inferred from diatom analyses). Together these highlight several key Quaternary fluctuations potentially correlated to events recorded in Greenland Ice Cores (GS2, GS2.1, GI1, GS1), and these are considered against key Quaternary records including those from nearby Lake Baikal and Hulu Cave in

  1. Abrupt changes in air temperature and precipitation: Do they matter for water chemistry?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Temnerud, J.; Weyhenmeyer, G. A.

    2008-06-01

    We analyzed 120 years long time series of air temperature and precipitation from 29 respective 44 sites distributed all over Sweden and determined abrupt changes by using three methods. For air temperature we found significant changes in 1930 and 1989 and for precipitation in 1920, 1979, and 1998. Analyzing more than 30 yearlong time series of ice cover (333 sites), discharge and watercourses chemistry (87 sites), we observed abrupt changes in 1977, 1989, and 1998 for discharge but first in 1998 for watercourses chemistry, most pronounced for organic matter and sulfate concentrations. We suggest that the abrupt increase in air temperature in 1989 liberated more easily mobilized organic matter in the catchments, which, for water chemistry, was first detected in 1998 as a consequence of increased discharge. We conclude that increases in air temperatures can make ecosystems more sensitive to further changes in precipitation.

  2. Rethinking species’ ability to cope with rapid climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hof, Christian; Levinsky, Irina; Bastos Araujo, Miguel

    2011-01-01

    Ongoing climate change is assumed to be exceptional because of its unprecedented velocity. However, new geophysical research suggests that dramatic climatic changes during the Late Pleistocene occurred extremely rapid, over just a few years. These abrupt climatic changes may have been even faster...... species' ability to cope with climate change, and that lessons must be learned for modelling future impacts of climate change on species....

  3. Glass heat capacity and its abrupt change in glass transition region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yue, Yuanzheng; Smedskjær, Morten Mattrup; Mauro, John C.

    Glass transition (GT) has been a fascinating, but challenging subject in the condensed matter science over decades. Despite progress in understanding GT, many crucial problems still need to be clarified. One of the problems deals with the microscopic origin of abrupt change of heat capacity (Cp) ...

  4. Agriculture: Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change affects agricultural producers because agriculture and fisheries depend on specific climate conditions. Temperature changes can cause crop planting dates to shift. Droughts and floods due to climate change may hinder farming practices.

  5. Our Changing Planet: The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for Fiscal Year 2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-07-01

    sometimes called the thermohaline circulation) in producing past abrupt climate changes. Climate modeling studies have suggested specific mechanisms for...systems and the feedbacks from these interactions. There will no doubt be limits to what can be forecast, but discovering these limits and their...predictability? 4.3 What is the likelihood of abrupt changes in the climate system such as the collapse of the ocean thermohaline circulation, inception

  6. Abrupt ENSO Changes Over the Last 15,000 Years: Inferences From Peru Margin Organic Biomarker Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makou, M. C.; Eglinton, T. I.; Oppo, D. W.; Hughen, K. A.

    2006-12-01

    Multi-molecular stratigraphic records developed from Peru Margin sediments (ODP Site 1228D; 11°S, 252 m) provide information about changes in upwelling and ENSO variability over the last 15 ka. Parallel records of molecular marker lipids derived from algal, bacterial, and terrestrial vascular plant sources were generated via gas chromatography coupled with time-of-flight mass spectrometry, which enables facile yet thorough investigation of the multiple lines of information embedded in the organic sedimentary record. The study site is located within the eastern tropical Pacific upwelling zone, and is thus well situated to directly monitor changes in El Niño strength over time. Factor analysis provided the means to identify distinct modes of variability within the broad array of biomarker records generated, and was employed to identify target compounds that could be used to investigate changes in environmental variables. In particular, dinosterol and cholesterol were used to infer changes in El Niño and La Niña strength, respectively, through the effects of these climate phenomena on productivity and upwelling. The dinosterol record suggests reduced El Niño strength from 12.9 to about 6.5 ka (pending age verification), at which point it increased abruptly, marking the resurgence of robust El Niño conditions in the Holocene. The remainder of the record from the 6.5 ka abrupt transition to the present was punctuated by further high-amplitude variability. The cholesterol abundance record varies in parallel with that of dinosterol, suggesting stronger (weaker) regional upwelling during periods of enhanced (reduced) El Niño conditions, consistent with a concurrent increase (decrease) in La Niña strength. The paired biomarker records imply that El Niño and La Niña varied in concert over the last 15 ka, rather than acting as shifting end-member states of tropical Pacific climate. By this hypothesis, ENSO variability as a whole was moderately enhanced in the early

  7. CLIMATIC CHANGE AND CLIMATE CONTROL,

    Science.gov (United States)

    The heat balance method together with certain other methods of theoretical climatology for investigating the laws of natural climatic changes and for determining the possibility of controlling such changes is discussed.

  8. A Fast Framework for Abrupt Change Detection Based on Binary Search Trees and Kolmogorov Statistic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin-Peng Qi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Change-Point (CP detection has attracted considerable attention in the fields of data mining and statistics; it is very meaningful to discuss how to quickly and efficiently detect abrupt change from large-scale bioelectric signals. Currently, most of the existing methods, like Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS statistic and so forth, are time-consuming, especially for large-scale datasets. In this paper, we propose a fast framework for abrupt change detection based on binary search trees (BSTs and a modified KS statistic, named BSTKS (binary search trees and Kolmogorov statistic. In this method, first, two binary search trees, termed as BSTcA and BSTcD, are constructed by multilevel Haar Wavelet Transform (HWT; second, three search criteria are introduced in terms of the statistic and variance fluctuations in the diagnosed time series; last, an optimal search path is detected from the root to leaf nodes of two BSTs. The studies on both the synthetic time series samples and the real electroencephalograph (EEG recordings indicate that the proposed BSTKS can detect abrupt change more quickly and efficiently than KS, t-statistic (t, and Singular-Spectrum Analyses (SSA methods, with the shortest computation time, the highest hit rate, the smallest error, and the highest accuracy out of four methods. This study suggests that the proposed BSTKS is very helpful for useful information inspection on all kinds of bioelectric time series signals.

  9. Climate Change Schools Project...

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinzey, Krista

    2010-01-01

    This article features the award-winning Climate Change Schools Project which aims to: (1) help schools to embed climate change throughout the national curriculum; and (2) showcase schools as "beacons" for climate change teaching, learning, and positive action in their local communities. Operating since 2007, the Climate Change Schools…

  10. Climate Change Indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Presents information, charts and graphs showing measured climate changes across 40 indicators related to greenhouse gases, weather and climate, oceans, snow and ice, heath and society, and ecosystems.

  11. Final Scientific Report for "The Interhemispheric Pattern in 20th Century and Future Abrupt Change in Regional Tropical Rainfall"

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chiang, John C. H. [University of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Wehner, Michael F. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2012-10-29

    This is the final scientific report for grant DOE-FG02-08ER64588, "The Interhemispheric Pattern in 20th Century and Future Abrupt Change in Regional Tropical Rainfall."The project investigates the role of the interhemispheric pattern in surface temperature – i.e. the contrast between the northern and southern temperature changes – in driving rapid changes to tropical rainfall changes over the 20th century and future climates. Previous observational and modeling studies have shown that the tropical rainband – the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over marine regions, and the summer monsoonal rainfall over land – are sensitive to the interhemispheric thermal contrast; but that the link between the two has not been applied to interpreting long-term tropical rainfall changes over the 20th century and future.The specific goals of the project were to i) develop dynamical mechanisms to explain the link between the interhemispheric pattern to abrupt changes of West African and Asian monsoonal rainfall; ii) Undertake a formal detection and attribution study on the interhemispheric pattern in 20th century climate; and iii) assess the likelihood of changes to this pattern in the future. In line with these goals, our project has produced the following significant results: 1.We have developed a case that suggests that the well-known abrupt weakening of the West African monsoon in the late 1960s was part of a wider co-ordinated weakening of the West African and Asian monsoons, and driven from an abrupt cooling in the high latitude North Atlantic sea surface temperature at the same time. Our modeling work suggests that the high-latitude North Atlantic cooling is effective in driving monsoonal weakening, through driving a cooling of the Northern hemisphere that is amplified by positive radiative feedbacks. 2.We have shown that anthropogenic sulfate aerosols may have partially contributed to driving a progressively southward displacement of the Atlantic Intertropical

  12. Reconstruction of hydrologic responses to late-Glacial (9-33ka) abrupt climate transitions in the coastal southwest United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, M.; Feakins, S. J.; Kirby, M. E.

    2013-12-01

    A sediment core retrieved from Lake Elsinore, the largest natural freshwater lake in southern California, spans an age of 9 to 33ka BP. The period includes several late-Glacial abrupt climate transitions such as the Heinrich events (HEs) 1-3, the Bølling-Allerød (B-A), and the Younger Dryas (YD). This terrestrial site provides a unique opportunity to evaluate changes in hydrology in coastal southwest United States across these key abrupt climate transition events. Hydrogen isotopic ratios (δDwax) of the long-chain C28 alkanoic acid, a biomarker for terrestrial leaf wax, extracted from the sediments, were analyzed to reveal the δD of precipitation water in the past (δDprecip). In the modern climate, higher δDprecip values are associated with moisture sourced from the tropical Pacific, which brings a drier and warmer climate, whereas lower δDprecip values are associated with moisture sourced from north Pacific brought by polar jet stream, causing a wetter and colder climate. δDwax ranges from about -210‰ to -100‰ between late-Glacial HEs and the beginning of Holocene. The pattern generally correlates with Greenland ice core and regional speleothem records, with lower δDwax values corresponding to colder periods (HEs), and higher δDwax values corresponding to warmer periods (B-A and early Holocene). We infer cold and wet climate with north Pacific sourced moisture during the glacial, followed by gradual warming and drying into the B-A and Holocene, when the moisture sources shifted to the tropical Pacific. There is no substantive response to the YD. The fluctuations of δDwax into and out of the HEs can be as large as about 60‰, suggesting greatly variable hydrology across these late-Glacial abrupt climate transition events. The large shifts in δDwax signal during deglaciation and HEs indicate that hydrology in the coastal southwest US has responded sensitively to climate change, and therefore has important implications for water resources in this

  13. Abrupt changes in Antarctic Intermediate Water strength lead Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation changes during the last deglacial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, R.; Marcantonio, F.; Schmidt, M. W.

    2011-12-01

    depth that is greater than that of modern AAIW flow, may actually be recording shoaling of the southern-sourced mid-depth circulation instead of variations of AAIW. At the beginning of the YD, Bølling-Allerød, and H1 in the Florida Straits, changing ɛNd values lead benthic foraminiferal δ18O changes in 26JPC and 31JPC,which have previously been interpreted as reflecting AMOC variability [3]. This suggests that variations in the strength of AAIW lead significant changes in AMOC across abrupt climate events across the deglacial, providing evidence that the trigger for abrupt climate change may reside in the Southern Hemisphere. Additional high-resolution ɛNd results from VM12-107 will be presented in an effort to better constrain the role of intermediate waters during the last deglaction. [1] Came et al. (2008) Paleoceanography 23, PA1217 [2] Pahnke et al. (2008) Nature Geoscience 1, 870-874 [3] Lynch-Stieglitz et al. (2011) Paleoceanography 26, PA1205

  14. Forecasting abrupt changes in foreign exchange markets: method using dynamical network marker

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oya, Shunsuke; Aihara, Kazuyuki; Hirata, Yoshito

    2014-11-01

    We apply the idea of dynamical network markers (Chen et al 2012 Sci. Rep. 2 342) to foreign exchange markets so that early warning signals can be provided for any abrupt changes. The dynamical network marker constructed achieves a high odds ratio for forecasting these sudden changes. In addition, we also extend the notion of the dynamical network marker by using recurrence plots so that the notion can be applied to delay coordinates and point processes. Thus, the dynamical network marker is useful in a variety of contexts in science, technology, and society.

  15. Use of abrupt strain path change for determining subsequent yield surface

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kuwabara, T.; Kuroda, M.; Tvergaard, Viggo

    2000-01-01

    A basic idea for a method for determining the subsequent yield surface in the vicinity of a current loading point by using an abrupt strain path change has been proposed recently by Kuroda and Tvergaard (Acta mater., 1999, 47, 3879). The proposed method is applied to real experimental studies...... path. Both a cold-rolled steel sheet and an aluminum alloy sheet are investigated. The differences between the yield surface shapes found by the strain path change procedure and the shapes found by probing the yield points from the elastic region are shown and discussed for different cases. (C) 2000...

  16. Holocene megathermal abrupt environmental changes derived from {sup 14}C dating of a coral reef at Leizhou Peninsula, South China Sea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shen Chengde; Yi Weixi E-mail: cdshen@gig.ac.cn; Yu Kefu; Sun Yanmin; Liu Tungsheng; Beer, J.; Hajdas, I.; Bonani, G

    2004-08-01

    A depth profile of a Goniopora coral reef at Leizhou Peninsula, South China Sea, was radiocarbon dated using liquid scintillation counting (LSC) and accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS). The time of formation, during 6600-7400 cal BP, can be divided into nine stages, each terminated by abrupt growth cessation of Goniopora and appearance of Ostrea shells. The results show that, during the Holocene megathermal (8.2-3.3 ka BP), large climatic changes have occurred in the South China Sea area.

  17. Kilimanjaro Ice Core Records: Evidence of Holocene Climate Change in Tropical Africa

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lonnie G. Thompson; Ellen Mosley-Thompson; Mary E. Davis; Keith A. Henderson; Henry H. Brecher; Victor S. Zagorodnov; Tracy A. Mashiotta; Ping-Nan Lin; Vladimir N. Mikhalenko; Douglas R. Hardy; Jürg Beer

    2002-01-01

    Six ice cores from Kilimanjaro provide an ~11.7-thousand-year record of Holocene climate and environmental variability for eastern equatorial Africa, including three periods of abrupt climate change: ~8.3, ~5.2...

  18. Abrupt changes in pulsar pulse profile through multiple magnetospheric state switching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuen, R.; Melrose, D. B.

    2017-12-01

    A purely magnetospheric model is introduced for observed abrupt changes in pulsar radio profile. Motion of magnetospheric plasma is described by a drift frequency, ω dr, that depends on a parameter 0 ≤ y ≤ 1, and a change in the magnetospheric state corresponds to a change in y. Emission is assumed to arise from m spots distributed uniformly around the magnetic axis, so that spots drift by at the rate mω dr. Observable features, such as subpulses, appear to rotate as ω R = ω dr ‑ mω V. The motion of the visible point, ω V, is ignored in a “standard” version of the viewing geometry that assumes a fixed line of sight (rather than a fixed line-of-sight direction), implying ω V = 0. With ω V ≠ 0, the apparent motion of subpulses is not constant. An abrupt (or more gradual) change in y implies a change in ω R, which affects the observed pulse structure and the average profile. We apply the model for profile shifts observed with PSR B0919+06.

  19. Climate Change and Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... sheets Fact files Questions & answers Features Multimedia Contacts Climate change and health Fact sheet Updated July 2017 Key ... in improved health, particularly through reduced air pollution. Climate change Over the last 50 years, human activities – ...

  20. Climate Change Adaptation Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-11

    US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING STRONG® Climate Change Adaptation Approaches Presented at the E2S2 Symposium May 11th, 2011 New Orleans, LA...COVERED 00-00-2011 to 00-00-2011 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Climate Change Adaptation Approaches 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM...10/09).  One of the four priorities is to maintain readiness in the face of climate change .  Addressing Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability: a

  1. Climate Change Law

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Farber, D.A.; Peeters, Marjan

    2016-01-01

    This book brings together over seventy fifty authors for a comprehensive examination of the emerging global regime of climate change law. Despite the relative youth of climate change law, we can already begin to see the outlines of legal regimes addressing climate change mitigation and adaptation

  2. Use of abrupt strain path change for determining subsequent yield surface

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kuroda, Mitsutoshi; Tvergaard, Viggo

    1999-01-01

    For elastic-plastic materials, a new method is proposed for determining the shape of the subsequent yield surface in the Vicinity of a current loading point. A proportional strain path is prescribed until the loading point of interest has been reached, then an abrupt strain path change is prescri......For elastic-plastic materials, a new method is proposed for determining the shape of the subsequent yield surface in the Vicinity of a current loading point. A proportional strain path is prescribed until the loading point of interest has been reached, then an abrupt strain path change...... is prescribed, which makes the stress point move quickly along the yield surface. It is assumed that a closed-loop testing machine is used for the experiment, so that the strain path can be prescribed according to strain gauge measurements. Relative to the standard method of determining yield surface shapes...... by probing in many different stress directions from the elastic region, using some chosen plastic strain offset, the main advantage of the proposed method is that elastic unloading is not needed prior to tracing the yield surface. The method is illustrated here by a few analyses, first for the simplest how...

  3. Climate for Change?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wejs, Anja

    Cities rather than national governments take the lead in acting on climate change. Several cities have voluntarily created climate change plans to prevent and prepare for the effects of climate change. In the literature climate change has been examined as a multilevel governance area taking place...... around international networks. Despite the many initiatives taken by cities, existing research shows that the implementation of climate change actions is lacking. The reasons for this scarcity in practice are limited to general explanations in the literature, and studies focused on explaining...... the constraints on climate change planning at the local level are absent. To understand these constraints, this PhD thesis investigates the institutional dynamics that influence the process of the integration of climate change into planning practices at the local level in Denmark. The examination of integration...

  4. A double window state observer for detection and isolation of abrupt changes in parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Byrski Jędrzej

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a new method for diagnosis of a process fault which takes the form of an abrupt change in some real parameter of a time-continuous linear system. The abrupt fault in the process real parameter is reflected in step changes in many parameters of the input/output model as well as in step changes in canonical state variables of the system. Detection of these state changes will enable localization of the faulty parameter in the system. For detecting state changes, a special type of exact state observer will be used. The canonical state will be represented by the derivatives of the measured output signal. Hence the exact state observer will play the role of virtual sensors for reconstruction of the derivatives of the output signal. For designing the exact state observer, the model parameters before and after the moment of fault occurrence must be known. To this end, a special identification method with modulating functions will be used. A novel concept presented in this paper concerns the structure of the observer. It will take the form of a double moving window observer which consists of two signal processing windows, each of width T. These windows are coupled to each other with a common edge. The right-hand side edge of the left-side moving window in the interval [t − 2T, t − T ] is connected to the left-hand side edge of the right-side window which operates in the interval [t − T, t]. The double observer uses different measurements of input/output signals in both the windows, and for each current time t simultaneously reconstructs two values of the state—the final value of the state in the left-side window zT (t − T and the initial value of the state z0(t − T in the right-side window. If the process parameters are constant, the values of both the states on the common joint edge are the same. If an abrupt change (fault in some parameter at the moment tA = t − T occurs in the system, then step changes in some

  5. Theory and Design Tools For Studies of Reactions to Abrupt Changes in Noise Exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fields, James M.; Ehrlich, Gary E.; Zador, Paul; Shepherd, Kevin P. (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Study plans, a pre-tested questionnaire, a sample design evaluation tool, a community publicity monitoring plan, and a theoretical framework have been developed to support combined social/acoustical surveys of residents' reactions to an abrupt change in environmental noise, Secondary analyses of more than 20 previous surveys provide estimates of three parameters of a study simulation model; within individual variability, between study wave variability, and between neighborhood variability in response to community noise. The simulation model predicts the precision of the results from social surveys of reactions to noise, including changes in noise. When the study simulation model analyzed the population distribution, noise exposure environments and feasible noise measurement program at a proposed noise change survey site, it was concluded that the site could not yield sufficient precise estimates of human reaction model to justify conducting a survey. Additional secondary analyses determined that noise reactions are affected by the season of the social survey.

  6. Climate change assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linda A. Joyce

    2008-01-01

    The science associated with climate and its effects on ecosystems, economies, and social systems is developing rapidly. Climate change assessments can serve as an important synthesis of this science and provide the information and context for management and policy decisions on adaptation and mitigation. This topic paper describes the variety of climate change...

  7. Climate change 101 : understanding and responding to global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    To inform the climate change dialogue, the Pew Center on Global Climate Change and the Pew Center on the States have developed a series of brief reports entitled Climate Change 101: Understanding and Responding to Global Climate Change. These reports...

  8. Fisheries portfolio diversification and turnover buffer Alaskan fishing communities from abrupt resource and market changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cline, Timothy J.; Schindler, Daniel E.; Hilborn, Ray

    2017-01-01

    Abrupt shifts in natural resources and their markets are a ubiquitous challenge to human communities. Building resilient social-ecological systems requires approaches that are robust to uncertainty and to regime shifts. Harvesting diverse portfolios of natural resources and adapting portfolios in response to change could stabilize economies reliant on natural resources and their markets, both of which are prone to unpredictable shifts. Here we use fisheries catch and revenue data from Alaskan fishing communities over 34 years to test whether diversification and turnover in the composition of fishing opportunities increased economic stability during major ocean and market regime shifts in 1989. More than 85% of communities show reduced fishing revenues following these regime shifts. However, communities with the highest portfolio diversity and those that could opportunistically shift the composition of resources they harvest, experienced negligible or even positive changes in revenue. Maintaining diversity in economic opportunities and enabling turnover facilitates sustainability of communities reliant on renewable resources facing uncertain futures. PMID:28091534

  9. Asking about climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jonas Østergaard; D'haen, Sarah Ann Lise

    2014-01-01

    There is increasing evidence that climate change will strongly affect people across the globe. Likely impacts of and adaptations to climate change are drawing the attention of researchers from many disciplines. In adaptation research focus is often on perceptions of climate change...... and on vulnerability and adaptation strategies in a particular region or community. But how do we research the ways in which people experience changing climatic conditions, the processes of decision-making, the actual adaptation strategies carried out and the consequences of these for actors living and dealing...... with climate change? On the basis of a literature review of all articles published in Global Environmental Change between 2000 and 2012 that deal with human dimensions of climate change using qualitative methods this paper provides some answers but also raises some concerns. The period and length of fieldwork...

  10. Climate change and forest ecosystem dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van der Meer, P.J.; Kramer, K. [Alterra, Wageningen (Netherlands); Van Wijk, M. [IBED, University of Amsterdam UvA, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2001-07-01

    Effects of climate change on water relations in forests were studied using several modelling approaches. Of several models tested, the FORGRO model had the highest potential for a reliable estimation of effects of climate change on forests. An evaluation of process-based models of forest growth showed that several models, including FORGRO, were able to produce accurate estimates of carbon and water fluxes at several forest sites of Europe. Responses were in relatively good agreement with the expected responses obtained by experimental studies, and models were able to deal with new conditions and explore the likely effects of climate change. The effect of climate change on forest development was assessed for three forests stands in the Netherlands using a gap model which was made climate sensitive by including the effects of climate change scenario IPCC IS92A on growth (FORGRO results), phenology (FORGRO results), and seed production (regression analysis). Results showed that climate change is likely to cause subtle changes rather than abrupt changes in forest development in the Netherlands, and that forest development on sandy soils in the Netherlands is not likely to be influenced significantly by climate change over the coming 50 years. The impact of climate change on the production, nature and recreation values of forests was studied using a simple economic model, and showed that response are likely to be relatively small during the first century, and are related to the successional status of the forest. Linking of detailed process-based models with gap models enables interpretation of climate change effects beyond a change in tree growth only, and is an important tool for investigating the effects of climate change on the development of mixed forests. The modelling approach presented in this project (process-based growth models -> gap models -> economic model) is a useful tool to support policy decisions in the light of climate change and forests. refs.

  11. Late Glacial to Holocene abrupt temperature changes recorded by Crenarchaeota in Lake Lucerne (Vierwaldstättersee, Switzerland)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blaga, Cornelia I.; Reichart, Gert-Jan; Lotter, André F.; Anselmetti, Flavio; Sinninghe Damsté, Jaap S.

    2010-05-01

    In this study we applied the TEX86 (TetraEther Index of 86 carbon atoms) temperature proxy to a sediment core from Lake Lucerne (Vierwaldstättersee) to reconstruct, in almost decadal resolution, temperature changes during the Younger Dryas and the Early Holocene (ca. 14600 to 10600 cal. BP). The TEX86 proxy suggests a sequence of shifts during the late glacial period that strongly resemble the shifts in δ18O values from the Greenland ice core record. The TEX86-reconstructed lake temperature record indicates a step-wise pattern of climate changes across the studied interval with a shift from colder to warmer temperatures at the onset of the late-glacial interstadial, followed by an abrupt cooling at the onset of Younger Dryas and a rapid warming from 5.5 to 9°C at the Younger Dryas/Holocene transition in less than 200 years. The temperature change associated with the Interstadial-Younger Dryas alternation is ca. 4 °C and is in line with previous temperature reconstructions based on different proxies. The rapid changes in temperature associated with the last deglaciation are reflected in the highest possible detail in the TEX86 record. It is thus clear that our proxy, based on the isoprenoidal GDGTs (Glycerol Dialkyl Glycerol Tetraethers), is capable to reflect high resolution records of rapid (decadal to century scale oscillations) environmental fluctuations comparable with those obtained from ice cores.

  12. Abrupt millennial variability and interdecadal-interstadial oscillations in a global coupled model: sensitivity to the background climate state

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arzel, Olivier [The University of New South Wales, Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC), Sydney (Australia); Universite de Bretagne Occidentale, Laboratoire de Physique des Oceans (LPO), Brest (France); England, Matthew H. [The University of New South Wales, Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC), Sydney (Australia); Verdiere, Alain Colin de; Huck, Thierry [Universite de Bretagne Occidentale, Laboratoire de Physique des Oceans (LPO), Brest (France)

    2012-07-15

    The origin and bifurcation structure of abrupt millennial-scale climate transitions under steady external solar forcing and in the absence of atmospheric synoptic variability is studied by means of a global coupled model of intermediate complexity. We show that the origin of Dansgaard-Oeschger type oscillations in the model is caused by the weaker northward oceanic heat transport in the Atlantic basin. This is in agreement with previous studies realized with much simpler models, based on highly idealized geometries and simplified physics. The existence of abrupt millennial-scale climate transitions during glacial times can therefore be interpreted as a consequence of the weakening of the negative temperature-advection feedback. This is confirmed through a series of numerical experiments designed to explore the sensitivity of the bifurcation structure of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to increased atmospheric CO{sub 2} levels under glacial boundary conditions. Contrasting with the cold, stadial, phases of millennial oscillations, we also show the emergence of strong interdecadal variability in the North Atlantic sector during warm interstadials. The instability driving these interdecadal-interstadial oscillations is shown to be identical to that found in ocean-only models forced by fixed surface buoyancy fluxes, that is, a large-scale baroclinic instability developing in the vicinity of the western boundary current in the North Atlantic. Comparisons with modern observations further suggest a physical mechanism similar to that driving the 30-40 years time scale associated with the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. (orig.)

  13. Abrupt climate and vegetation variability of eastern Anatolia during the last glacial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pickarski, N.; Kwiecien, O.; Langgut, D.; Litt, T.

    2015-11-01

    Detailed analyses of the Lake Van pollen, Ca / K ratio, and stable oxygen isotope record allow the identification of millennial-scale vegetation and environmental changes in eastern Anatolia throughout the last glacial (~ 111.5-11.7 ka BP). The climate of the last glacial was cold and dry, indicated by low arboreal pollen (AP) levels. The driest and coldest period corresponds to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 2 (~ 28-14.5 ka BP), which was dominated by highest values of xerophytic steppe vegetation. Our high-resolution multi-proxy record shows rapid expansions and contractions of tree populations that reflect variability in temperature and moisture availability. These rapid vegetation and environmental changes can be related to the stadial-interstadial pattern of Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events as recorded in the Greenland ice cores. Periods of reduced moisture availability were characterized by enhanced occurrence of xerophytic species and high terrigenous input from the Lake Van catchment area. Furthermore, the comparison with the marine realm reveals that the complex atmosphere-ocean interaction can be explained by the strength and position of the westerlies, which are responsible for the supply of humidity in eastern Anatolia. Influenced by the diverse topography of the Lake Van catchment, more pronounced DO interstadials (e.g., DO 19, 17-16, 14, 12 and 8) show the strongest expansion of temperate species within the last glacial. However, Heinrich events (HE), characterized by highest concentrations of ice-rafted debris (IRD) in marine sediments, cannot be separated from other DO stadials based on the vegetation composition in eastern Anatolia. In addition, this work is a first attempt to establish a continuous microscopic charcoal record for the last glacial in the Near East. It documents an immediate response to millennial-scale climate and environmental variability and enables us to shed light on the history of fire activity during the last glacial.

  14. Climate Change and Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-01

    projects (the majority of them in South and South East Asia); focusing in Vietnam on climate change planning and carbon sequestration markets . 33...enhancement for dairy cattle. 21 In the parallel line of effort, MNRE’s priorities for adaptation programs are agriculture, forestry, coastal zone management...Climate change assistance,” AusAID, 13 June 2013, accessed 15 October 2013, http://www.ausaid.gov.au. 33 IFAD, “ Planning for Climate Change in

  15. Abrupt changes in neon discharge plasma detected via the optogalvanic effect

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Han, Xianming L., E-mail: xhan@butler.edu [Dept. of Physics and Astronomy, Butler University, Indianapolis, IN 46208 (United States); Blosser, Michael C. [Dept. of Physics and Astronomy, Butler University, Indianapolis, IN 46208 (United States); Misra, Prabhakar [Dept. of Physics and Astronomy, Howard University, Washington DC 20059 (United States); Chandran, Haridass [Dept. of Physical Science, Belfry School, Belfry, KY 41514 (United States)

    2012-10-30

    When a laser is tuned between two excited energy levels of a gas in a Direct Current discharge lamp, the discharge current will experience a temporary disturbance lasting tens or hundreds of microseconds known as the optogalvanic effect. We have carried out extensive studies of optogalvanic effects in neon discharge plasmas for transitions at 621.7 nm, 630.5 nm, 638.3 nm, 650.7 nm and 659.9 nm. A nonlinear least-squares Monte Carlo technique has been used to determine the relevant amplitude coefficients, decay rates and the instrumental time constant. We discovered an abrupt change in the neon discharge plasma at a discharge current of about 6 mA.

  16. Chatham Islands Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mullan, B.; Salinger, J.; Thompson, C.; Ramsay, D.; Wild, M.

    2005-06-15

    This brief report provides guidance on climate change specific to the Chatham Islands, to complement the information recently produced for local government by the Ministry for the Environment in 'Climate Change Effects and Impacts Assessment: A guidance manual for Local Government in New Zealand' and 'Coastal Hazards and Climate Change: A guidance manual for Local Government in New Zealand'. These previous reports contain a lot of generic information on climate change, and how to assess associated risks, that is relevant to the Chatham Islands Council.

  17. Communicating Urban Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snyder, S.; Crowley, K.; Horton, R.; Bader, D.; Hoffstadt, R.; Labriole, M.; Shugart, E.; Steiner, M.; Climate; Urban Systems Partnership

    2011-12-01

    While cities cover only 2% of the Earth's surface, over 50% of the world's people live in urban environments. Precisely because of their population density, cities can play a large role in reducing or exacerbating the global impact of climate change. The actions of cities could hold the key to slowing down climate change. Urban dwellers are becoming more aware of the need to reduce their carbon usage and to implement adaptation strategies. However, messaging around these strategies has not been comprehensive and adaptation to climate change requires local knowledge, capacity and a high level of coordination. Unless urban populations understand climate change and its impacts it is unlikely that cities will be able to successfully implement policies that reduce anthropogenic climate change. Informal and formal educational institutions in urban environments can serve as catalysts when partnering with climate scientists, educational research groups, and public policy makers to disseminate information about climate change and its impacts on urban audiences. The Climate and Urban Systems Partnership (CUSP) is an interdisciplinary network designed to assess and meet the needs and challenges of educating urban audiences about climate change. CUSP brings together organizations in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Queens, NY and Washington, DC to forge links with informal and formal education partners, city government, and policy makers. Together this network will create and disseminate learner-focused climate education programs and resources for urban audiences that, while distinct, are thematically and temporally coordinated, resulting in the communication of clear and consistent information and learning experiences about climate science to a wide public audience. Working at a community level CUSP will bring coordinated programming directly into neighborhoods presenting the issues of global climate change in a highly local context. The project is currently exploring a number of

  18. Use of calcareous algae and monensin in Nellore cattle subjected to an abrupt change in diet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberta Ferreira Carvalho

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT: Additives are used in high concentrate diets to prevent metabolic disorders in cattle. This study was designed to evaluate the effect of calcium sources and monensin on the control of ruminal acidosis in Nellore cattle that were abruptly shifted to a high (92.3% concentrate diet. Eight cannulated steers were randomly assigned to two contemporary 4x4 Latin square. Treatments involved the addition of a calcium source, either limestone (LI or a product derived from calcareous algae (CA, to the basic diet with or without the presence of monensin. Calcareous alga (Lithothamnium calcareum is a natural and renewable product and a source of calcium carbonate. The quantity of added limestone, calcareous algae and monensin was 7.1g kg-1, 7.4g kg-1 and 30mg kg-1 DM, respectively. There was no effect of calcium source (P=0.607 or monensin (P=0.294 on feed intake or on the concentration of short chain fatty acids. Treatments with calcareous algae resulted in a higher mean ruminal pH (P=0.039, a shorter amount of time with the ruminal pH under 5.2 (P<0.001 and a better control of blood pH (P=0.006. Treatments with monensin also resulted in a shorter amount of time with the ruminal pH below 5.2 (P=0.023. Calcareous algae were shown to be effective in controlling adverse changes in the rumen and in blood variables for Nellore cattle that were subjected to an abrupt change to a high concentrate diet.

  19. Climate Change in Prehistory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burroughs, William James

    2005-06-01

    How did humankind deal with the extreme challenges of the last Ice Age? How have the relatively benign post-Ice Age conditions affected the evolution and spread of humanity across the globe? By setting our genetic history in the context of climate change during prehistory, the origin of many features of our modern world are identified and presented in this illuminating book. It reviews the aspects of our physiology and intellectual development that have been influenced by climatic factors, and how features of our lives - diet, language and the domestication of animals - are also the product of the climate in which we evolved. In short: climate change in prehistory has in many ways made us what we are today. Climate Change in Prehistory weaves together studies of the climate with anthropological, archaeological and historical studies, and will fascinate all those interested in the effects of climate on human development and history.

  20. Climate Change and Roads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chinowsky, P.; Arndt, Channing

    2012-01-01

    Decision-makers who are responsible for determining when and where infrastructure should be developed and/or enhanced are facing a new challenge with the emerging topic of climate change. The paper introduces a stressor–response methodology where engineering-based models are used as a basis...... four climate projection scenarios, the paper details how climate change response decisions may cost the Mozambican government in terms of maintenance costs and long-term roadstock inventory reduction. Through this approach the paper details how a 14% reduction in inventory loss can be achieved through...... the adoption of a proactive, design standard evolution approach to climate change....

  1. Paleoclimates: Understanding climate change past and present

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, Thomas M.

    2010-01-01

    The field of paleoclimatology relies on physical, chemical, and biological proxies of past climate changes that have been preserved in natural archives such as glacial ice, tree rings, sediments, corals, and speleothems. Paleoclimate archives obtained through field investigations, ocean sediment coring expeditions, ice sheet coring programs, and other projects allow scientists to reconstruct climate change over much of earth's history. When combined with computer model simulations, paleoclimatic reconstructions are used to test hypotheses about the causes of climatic change, such as greenhouse gases, solar variability, earth's orbital variations, and hydrological, oceanic, and tectonic processes. This book is a comprehensive, state-of-the art synthesis of paleoclimate research covering all geological timescales, emphasizing topics that shed light on modern trends in the earth's climate. Thomas M. Cronin discusses recent discoveries about past periods of global warmth, changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, abrupt climate and sea-level change, natural temperature variability, and other topics directly relevant to controversies over the causes and impacts of climate change. This text is geared toward advanced undergraduate and graduate students and researchers in geology, geography, biology, glaciology, oceanography, atmospheric sciences, and climate modeling, fields that contribute to paleoclimatology. This volume can also serve as a reference for those requiring a general background on natural climate variability.

  2. Climate Change Dossier

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Albers, R.A.W.

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is one of the great issues of our time. It is a complex, multi-facetted issue concerning flooding, energy efficiency, CO2 storage and sustainable energy, among others. TNO is actively involved in the issue, undertaking many studies relating to various aspects. The climate is changing;

  3. Changes in extreme regional sea surface height due to an abrupt weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brunnabend, S.-E.; Dijkstra, H. A.; Kliphuis, M. A.; van Werkhoven, B.J.C.; Bal, H. E.; Seinstra, F.; Maassen, J.; van Meersbergen, M.

    2014-01-01

    As an extreme scenario of dynamical sea level changes, regional sea surface height (SSH) changes that occur in the North Atlantic due to an abrupt weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are simulated. Two versions of the same ocean-only model are used to study the effect

  4. Global climate change and international security.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karas, Thomas H.

    2003-11-01

    This report originates in a workshop held at Sandia National Laboratories, bringing together a variety of external experts with Sandia personnel to discuss 'The Implications of Global Climate Change for International Security.' Whatever the future of the current global warming trend, paleoclimatic history shows that climate change happens, sometimes abruptly. These changes can severely impact human water supplies, agriculture, migration patterns, infrastructure, financial flows, disease prevalence, and economic activity. Those impacts, in turn, can lead to national or international security problems stemming from aggravation of internal conflicts, increased poverty and inequality, exacerbation of existing international conflicts, diversion of national and international resources from international security programs (military or non-military), contribution to global economic decline or collapse, or international realignments based on climate change mitigation policies. After reviewing these potential problems, the report concludes with a brief listing of some research, technology, and policy measures that might mitigate them.

  5. Communities under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nogues, David Bravo; Rahbek, Carsten

    2011-01-01

    The distribution of species on Earth and the interactions among them are tightly linked to historical and contemporary climate, so that global climate change will transform the world in which we live. Biological models can now credibly link recent decadal trends in field data to climate change......, but predicting future impacts on biological communities is a major challenge. Attempts to move beyond general macroecological predictions of climate change impact on one hand, and observations from specific, local-scale cases, small-scale experiments, or studies of a few species on the other, raise a plethora...... of unanswered questions. On page 1124 of this issue, Harley (1) reports results that cast new light on how biodiversity, across different trophic levels, responds to climate change....

  6. Cuba confronts climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso, Gisela; Clark, Ismael

    2015-04-01

    Among environmental problems, climate change presents the greatest challenges to developing countries, especially island nations. Changes in climate and the resulting effects on human health call for examination of the interactions between environmental and social factors. Important in Cuba's case are soil conditions, food availability, disease burden, ecological changes, extreme weather events, water quality and rising sea levels, all in conjunction with a range of social, cultural, economic and demographic conditions.

  7. GREEN ECONOMY AND CLIMATE CHANGE PREVENTION CYCLE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea CONSTANTINESCU

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available While experts in economics place transition to green economy on two directions - reducing ecological footprint and increasing human welfare - climate change specialists warn that effects of global warming will have a much greater impact in the future. It is natural to join scientific contributions in these two areas because both perspectives recognize the ravages made by industrialization, which triggered a serie of abrupt climate changes. For example, the average temperature in Europe has increased about 1oC. Based on these evidences, this article will show the usefulness of introducing a concept of full cycle to prevent climate change in the new paradigm that seeks to solve problems related to the fundamentals of sustainable development through transition to green economy. Using this method, this approach intends to be a new theoretical contribution which can act as support to efficiency of new clean technologies.

  8. Climate change and skin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balato, N; Ayala, F; Megna, M; Balato, A; Patruno, C

    2013-02-01

    Global climate appears to be changing at an unprecedented rate. Climate change can be caused by several factors that include variations in solar radiation received by earth, oceanic processes (such as oceanic circulation), plate tectonics, and volcanic eruptions, as well as human-induced alterations of the natural world. Many human activities, such as the use of fossil fuel and the consequent accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, land consumption, deforestation, industrial processes, as well as some agriculture practices are contributing to global climate change. Indeed, many authors have reported on the current trend towards global warming (average surface temperature has augmented by 0.6 °C over the past 100 years), decreased precipitation, atmospheric humidity changes, and global rise in extreme climatic events. The magnitude and cause of these changes and their impact on human activity have become important matters of debate worldwide, representing climate change as one of the greatest challenges of the modern age. Although many articles have been written based on observations and various predictive models of how climate change could affect social, economic and health systems, only few studies exist about the effects of this change on skin physiology and diseases. However, the skin is the most exposed organ to environment; therefore, cutaneous diseases are inclined to have a high sensitivity to climate. For example, global warming, deforestation and changes in precipitation have been linked to variations in the geographical distribution of vectors of some infectious diseases (leishmaniasis, lyme disease, etc) by changing their spread, whereas warm and humid environment can also encourage the colonization of the skin by bacteria and fungi. The present review focuses on the wide and complex relationship between climate change and dermatology, showing the numerous factors that are contributing to modify the incidence and the clinical pattern of many

  9. Adapting to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Strzepek, Kenneth; Tarp, Finn

    2011-01-01

    Mozambique, like many African countries, is already highly susceptible to climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change threatens to heighten this vulnerability. In order to evaluate potential impacts and adaptation options for Mozambique, we develop an integrated modeling...... framework that translates atmospheric changes from general circulation model projections into biophysical outcomes via detailed hydrologic, crop, hydropower and infrastructure models. These sector models simulate a historical baseline and four extreme climate change scenarios. Sector results are then passed...... down to a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, which is used to estimate economy-wide impacts on national welfare, as well as the total cost of damages caused by climate change. Potential damages without changes in policy are significant; our discounted estimates range from US2.3 to US2.3toUS7...

  10. Climate change governance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knieling, Joerg [HafenCity Univ. Hamburg (Germany). Urban Planning and Regional Development; Leal Filho, Walter (eds.) [HAW Hamburg (Germany). Research and Transfer Centre Applications of Life Science

    2013-07-01

    Climate change is a cause for concern both globally and locally. In order for it to be tackled holistically, its governance is an important topic needing scientific and practical consideration. Climate change governance is an emerging area, and one which is closely related to state and public administrative systems and the behaviour of private actors, including the business sector, as well as the civil society and non-governmental organisations. Questions of climate change governance deal both with mitigation and adaptation whilst at the same time trying to devise effective ways of managing the consequences of these measures across the different sectors. Many books have been produced on general matters related to climate change, such as climate modelling, temperature variations, sea level rise, but, to date, very few publications have addressed the political, economic and social elements of climate change and their links with governance. This book will address this gap. Furthermore, a particular feature of this book is that it not only presents different perspectives on climate change governance, but it also introduces theoretical approaches and brings these together with practical examples which show how main principles may be implemented in practice.

  11. Olivine and climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schuiling, R.D.

    2012-01-01

    The greenhouse effect, thanks mainly to the water vapor in our atmosphere, has created a livable climate on Earth. Climate change, however, may potentially have dire consequences. It is generally assumed that the rise in CO2 levels in the atmosphere is the main culprit, although several other

  12. Have abrupt climate variations of the last glacial possibly been muted in the south-west African tropics by counteracting mechanisms?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hessler, I.; Dupont, L.; Handiani, D.; Steinke, S.; Groeneveld, J.; Merkel, U.; Paul, A.

    2012-04-01

    The last glacial period including the last deglaciation (73.5-10 ka BP) is characterised by abrupt shifts between extreme climatic conditions. Millennial-scale climate variations associated with North Atlantic Heinrich Stadials (HSs) are thought to be transmitted by both the atmospheric and oceanic circulation resulting in a near-global footprint. It is further thought that HSs are closely related to a reduction or shut-down of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which, according to the bipolar-seesaw hypothesis, leads to the accumulation of heat in the South Atlantic. In addition, it is hypothesised that HSs result in a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone which then would likely influence the vegetation composition in the African tropics. To investigate the impact of HSs on the terrestrial African realm and the south-east Atlantic we reconstructed the vegetation development in Angola and the southern Congo Basin as well as the sea surface temperatures (SST) of the south-east Atlantic using marine sediments of ODP Site 1078 (11° 55'S, 13° 24'E, 427 m water depth). Two species of planktonic foraminifera were selected to reconstruct variations in surface water conditions in the south-east Atlantic. Due the ecological and seasonal preferences of Globigerinoides ruber (pink) this species provides a good tool to estimate SST variations during the southern hemisphere summer. In contrast, Globigerina bulloides is representing the Benguela Upwelling System during the southern hemisphere winter. While Mg/Ca-based SSTs of G. ruber (pink) were significantly higher by 1° -2° C during periods of abrupt climate change, the impact of HSs during southern hemisphere winter is less obvious. However, although there are several vegetation records that show an impact of HSs in the African tropics, our high-resolution pollen record from ODP Site 1078 reflects no vegetation changes during periods of HSs. Model simulations conducted with an Earth System

  13. Creationism & Climate Change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newton, S.

    2009-12-01

    Although creationists focus on the biological sciences, recently creationists have also expanded their attacks to include the earth sciences, especially on the topic of climate change. The creationist effort to deny climate change, in addition to evolution and radiometric dating, is part of a broader denial of the methodology and validity of science itself. Creationist misinformation can pose a serious problem for science educators, who are further hindered by the poor treatment of the earth sciences and climate change in state science standards. Recent changes to Texas’ science standards, for example, require that students learn “different views on the existence of global warming.” Because of Texas’ large influence on the national textbook market, textbooks presenting non-scientific “different views” about climate change—or simply omitting the subject entirely because of the alleged “controversy”—could become part of K-12 classrooms across the country.

  14. Climate change and compensation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karsten Klint; Flanagan, Tine Bech

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a case for compensation of actual harm from climate change in the poorest countries. First, it is shown that climate change threatens to reverse the fight to eradicate poverty. Secondly, it is shown how the problems raised in the literature for compensation to some extent...... are based on misconceptions and do not apply to compensation of present actual harm. Finally, two arguments are presented to the effect that, in so far as developed countries accept a major commitment to mitigate climate change, they should also accept a commitment to address or compensate actual harm from...... climate change. The first argument appeals to the principle that if it is an injustice to cause risk of incurring harm in the future, then it is also an injustice to cause a similar harm now. The second argument appeals to the principle that if there is moral reason to reduce the risk of specific harms...

  15. Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hudecz, Adriána

    -operation and research into the common problems of the Northern Periphery. This report is an output of the ROADEX “Implementing Accessibility” project (2009-2012). It gives a summary of the results of research into adaptation measures to combat climate change effects on low volume roads in the Northern Periphery....... The research was carried out between January 2000 and March 2012. One of the biggest challenges that mankind has to face is the prospect of climate change resulting from emissions of greenhouse gases. These gases trap energy in the atmosphere and cause global surface temperatures to rise. This warming in turn...... causes changes in other climatic variables such as rainfall, humidity and wind speed that impact on the functioning of infrastructure such road networks. This paper discusses the climate changes predicted by the world’s meteorological organisations and considers how these may impact on the public...

  16. Global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Joel S.

    1991-01-01

    Present processes of global climate change are reviewed. The processes determining global temperature are briefly described and the concept of effective temperature is elucidated. The greenhouse effect is examined, including the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases.

  17. Global Climatic Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houghton, Richard A.; Woodwell, George M.

    1989-01-01

    Cites some of the evidence which suggests that the production of carbon dioxide and methane from human activities has begun to change the climate. Describes some measures which should be taken to stop or slow this progression. (RT)

  18. Climate Change Adaptation Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    A list of on-line training modules to help local government officials and those interested in water management issues better understand how the changing climate affects the services and resources they care about

  19. Climate change and forest diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    R.N. Sturrock; Susan Frankel; A. V. Brown; Paul Hennon; J. T. Kliejunas; K. J. Lewis; J. J. Worrall; A. J. Woods

    2011-01-01

    As climate changes, the effects of forest diseases on forest ecosystems will change. We review knowledge of relationships between climate variables and several forest diseases, as well as current evidence of how climate, host and pathogen interactions are responding or might respond to climate change. Many forests can be managed to both adapt to climate change and...

  20. Climate change and cities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Satterthwaite, David

    2006-10-15

    What is done, or not done, in cities in relation to climate change over the next 5-10 years will affect hundreds of millions of people, because their lives and livelihoods are at risk from global warming. What is done in cities will also have a major influence on whether the escalating risks for the whole planet will be reduced or eliminated. Climate change needs to be considered in all development plans and investments - local, regional, national and international. Urban growth must be made more climate-resilient and help reduce, rather than increase, greenhouse gas emissions. This will not be done by the market; it can only be done by governments.

  1. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Sean A. Parks

    2016-01-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not...

  2. Changes in extreme regional sea surface height due to an abrupt weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

    OpenAIRE

    Brunnabend, S.-E.; Dijkstra, H.A.; Kliphuis, M. A.; Werkhoven, B van.; Bal, H.E.; F. Seinstra; Maassen, J.; M. van Meersbergen

    2014-01-01

    As an extreme scenario of dynamical sea level changes, regional sea surface height (SSH) changes that occur in the North Atlantic due to an abrupt weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are simulated. Two versions of the same ocean-only model are used to study the effect of ocean model resolution on these SSH changes: a high-resolution (HR) strongly eddying version and a low-resolution (LR) version in which the effect of eddies is parameterised. ...

  3. Abrupt climate transition of icy worlds from snowball to moist or runaway greenhouse

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jun; Ding, Feng; Ramirez, Ramses M.; Peltier, W. R.; Hu, Yongyun; Liu, Yonggang

    2017-08-01

    Ongoing and future space missions aim to identify potentially habitable planets in our Solar System and beyond. Planetary habitability is determined not only by a planet's current stellar insolation and atmospheric properties, but also by the evolutionary history of its climate. It has been suggested that icy planets and moons become habitable after their initial ice shield melts as their host stars brighten. Here we show from global climate model simulations that a habitable state is not achieved in the climatic evolution of those icy planets and moons that possess an inactive carbonate-silicate cycle and low concentrations of greenhouse gases. Examples for such planetary bodies are the icy moons Europa and Enceladus, and certain icy exoplanets orbiting G and F stars. We find that the stellar fluxes that are required to overcome a planet's initial snowball state are so large that they lead to significant water loss and preclude a habitable planet. Specifically, they exceed the moist greenhouse limit, at which water vapour accumulates at high altitudes where it can readily escape, or the runaway greenhouse limit, at which the strength of the greenhouse increases until the oceans boil away. We suggest that some icy planetary bodies may transition directly to a moist or runaway greenhouse without passing through a habitable Earth-like state.

  4. Observed climate change hotspots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turco, M.; Palazzi, E.; Hardenberg, J.; Provenzale, A.

    2015-05-01

    We quantify climate change hotspots from observations, taking into account the differences in precipitation and temperature statistics (mean, variability, and extremes) between 1981-2010 and 1951-1980. Areas in the Amazon, the Sahel, tropical West Africa, Indonesia, and central eastern Asia emerge as primary observed hotspots. The main contributing factors are the global increase in mean temperatures, the intensification of extreme hot-season occurrence in low-latitude regions and the decrease of precipitation over central Africa. Temperature and precipitation variability have been substantially stable over the past decades, with only a few areas showing significant changes against the background climate variability. The regions identified from the observations are remarkably similar to those defined from projections of global climate models under a "business-as-usual" scenario, indicating that climate change hotspots are robust and persistent over time. These results provide a useful background to develop global policy decisions on adaptation and mitigation priorities over near-time horizons.

  5. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Dulen, Deanna M.; Ebersole, Joseph L.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Lundquist, Jessica D.; Millar, Constance I.; Maher, Sean P.; Monahan, William B.; Nydick, Koren R.; Redmond, Kelly T.; Sawyer, Sarah C.; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R.

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088

  6. Change in paternity, risk of placental abruption and confounding by birth interval: a population-based prospective cohort study in Norway, 1967–2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ananth, Cande V; Skjaerven, Rolv; Klunssoyr, Kari

    2015-01-01

    Objectives We examined abruption risk in relation to change in paternity, and evaluated if birth interval confounds this association. Setting Population-based study of singleton births in Norway between 1967 and 2009. Participants Women who had their first two (n=747 566) singleton births in the Norwegian Medical Birth Registry. The associations between partner change between pregnancies and birth interval were examined in relation to abruption in a series of logistic regression models. Primary outcome measures Risk, as well as unadjusted and adjusted OR of placental abruption in relation to change in paternity and interval between births. Results Among women without abruption in their first pregnancy, the risks of abruption in the second pregnancy were 4.7 and 6.5 per 1000 in women who had the same and different partners, respectively (OR=1.39, 95% CI 1.26 to 1.53). After adjustments for confounders including birth interval and smoking, partner change was not associated with abruption (OR=1.01, 95% CI 0.79 to 1.32). Among women with abruption in the first pregnancy, the association between partner change and abruption in the second pregnancy was 0.98 (95% CI 0.75 to 1.28). Interval paternity are not supported insofar as abruption is concerned. PMID:25670732

  7. Abrupt recent trend changes in atmospheric nitrogen dioxide over the Middle East

    KAUST Repository

    Lelieveld, J.

    2015-08-21

    Nitrogen oxides, released from fossil fuel use and other combustion processes, affect air quality and climate. From the mid-1990s onward, nitrogen dioxide (NO2) has been monitored from space, and since 2004 with relatively high spatial resolution by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument. Strong upward NO2 trends have been observed over South and East Asia and the Middle East, in particular over major cities. We show, however, that a combination of air quality control and political factors, including economical crisis and armed conflict, has drastically altered the emission landscape of nitrogen oxides in the Middle East. Large changes, including trend reversals, have occurred since about 2010 that could not have been predicted and therefore are at odds with emission scenarios used in projections of air pollution and climate change in the early 21st century.

  8. Topologies of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blok, Anders

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is quickly becoming a ubiquitous socionatural reality, mediating extremes of sociospatial scale from the bodily to the planetary. Although environmentalism invites us to ‘think globally and act locally', the meaning of these scalar designations remains ambiguous. This paper explores...... the topological presuppositions of social theory in the context of global climate change, asking how carbon emissions ‘translate' into various sociomaterial forms. Staging a meeting between Tim Ingold's phenomenology of globes and spheres and the social topologies of actor-network theory (ANT), the paper advances...... a ‘relational-scalar' analytics of spatial practices, technoscience, and power. As technoscience gradually constructs a networked global climate, this ‘grey box' comes to circulate within fluid social spaces, taking on new shades as it hybridizes knowledges, symbols, and practices. Global climates thus come...

  9. Managing climate change refugia for climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toni Lyn Morelli; Christopher Daly; Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Deanna M. Dulen; Joseph L. Ebersole; Stephen T. Jackson; Jessica D. Lundquist; Connie Millar; Sean P. Maher; William B. Monahan; Koren R. Nydick; Kelly T. Redmond; Sarah C. Sawyer; Sarah Stock; Steven R. Beissinger

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that...

  10. Climate change impacts: birds

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tomotani, B.M.; Ramakers, J.J.C.; Gienapp, P.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change can affect populations and species in various ways. Rising temperatures can shift geographical distributions and lead to (phenotypic or genetic) changes in traits, mostly phenology, which may affect demography. Most of these effects are well documented in birds. For example, the

  11. Abrupt rather than gradual hormonal changes induce postpartum blues-like behavior in rats

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Doornbos, Bennard; Fokkema, Dirk S.; Molhoek, Margo; Tanke, Marit A. C.; Postema, Folkert; Korf, Jakob

    2009-01-01

    Aims: Postpartum blues is thought to be related to hormonal events accompanying delivery. We investigated whether blues-like symptoms depend on the rate of the decline of hormones, by comparing the behavioral consequences of an abrupt versus a gradual decline of gonadal hormones in an animal model.

  12. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    The concept of refugia has long been studied from theoretical and paleontological perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change ref...

  13. Changing Climate, Changing Behavior: Adaptive Economic Behavior and Housing Markets Responses to Flood Risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Filatova, Tatiana; Bin, Okmyung; Kaminski, Bogumil; Koloch, Grzegorz

    2014-01-01

    Spatial econometrics and analytical spatial economic modeling advanced significantly in the recent years. Yet, methodologically they are designed to tackle marginal changes in the underlying dynamics of spatial urban systems. In the world with climate change, however, abrupt sudden non-marginal

  14. Energy and Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-06-15

    Climate change, and more specifically the carbon emissions from energy production and use, is one of the more vexing problems facing society today. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has just completed its latest assessment on the state of the science of climate change, on the potential consequences related to this change, and on the mitigation steps that could be implemented beginning now, particularly in the energy sector. Few people now doubt that anthropogenic climate change is real or that steps must be taken to deal with it. The World Energy Council has long recognized this serious concern and that in its role as the world's leading international energy organization, it can address the concerns of how to provide adequate energy for human well-being while sustaining our overall quality of life. It has now performed and published 15 reports and working papers on this subject. This report examines what has worked and what is likely to work in the future in this regard and provides policymakers with a practical roadmap to a low-carbon future and the steps needed to achieve it.

  15. Climate change and schools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sheffield, Perry E.; Uijttewaal, Simone A.M.; Stewart, James; Galvez, Maida P.

    2017-01-01

    The changing climate is creating additional challenges in maintaining a healthy school environment in the United States (US) where over 50 million people, mostly children, spend approximately a third of their waking hours. Chronic low prioritization of funds and resources to support environmental

  16. Biodiversity and Climate Change

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    NWUuser

    preventing and mitigating the impacts of climate change and biodiversity loss. As should be evident from the above very brief survey of the content of the book, it is vast in its substantive breadth and rich in its diversity of approach and perspective. This is naturally one of its strength but as with many books comprising.

  17. CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Cathy Egan

    The most vulnerable populations are those with few resources to cope with climate change impacts such as desertification, soil ... Canada's International Development Research Centre (IDRC) is one of the world's leading institutions in the generation and application of new knowledge to meet the challenges of international ...

  18. Adaptation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carmin, J.; Tierney, K.; Chu, E.; Hunter, L.M.; Roberts, J.T.; Shi, L.; Dunlap, R.E.; Brulle, R.J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change adaptation involves major global and societal challenges such as finding adequate and equitable adaptation funding and integrating adaptation and development programs. Current funding is insufficient. Debates between the Global North and South center on how best to allocate the

  19. Learning Progressions & Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Joyce M.; de los Santos, Elizabeth X.; Anderson, Charles W.

    2015-01-01

    Our society is currently having serious debates about sources of energy and global climate change. But do students (and the public) have the requisite knowledge to engage these issues as informed citizenry? The learning-progression research summarized here indicates that only 10% of high school students typically have a level of understanding…

  20. DTU Climate Change Technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    During 2008 and 2009, DTU held a workshop series focusing on assessment of and adaption to climate changes as well as on mitigation of green house gasses. In the workshops, a total of 1500 scientists, government officials and business leaders have outlined scenarios for technology development...

  1. Climate change reference guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    At the heart of climate change is the greenhouse effect, in which molecules of various gases trap heat in Earths atmosphere and keep it warm enough to support life. Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) are an important part of Ea...

  2. Challenges of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Husaini, Amjad M

    2014-01-01

    Kashmir valley is a major saffron (Crocus sativus Kashmirianus) growing area of the world, second only to Iran in terms of production. In Kashmir, saffron is grown on uplands (termed in the local language as “Karewas”), which are lacustrine deposits located at an altitude of 1585 to 1677 m above mean sea level (amsl), under temperate climatic conditions. Kashmir, despite being one of the oldest historical saffron-producing areas faces a rapid decline of saffron industry. Among many other factors responsible for decline of saffron industry the preponderance of erratic rainfalls and drought-like situation have become major challenges imposed by climate change. Saffron has a limited coverage area as it is grown as a ‘niche crop’ and is a recognized “geographical indication,” growing under a narrow microclimatic condition. As such it has become a victim of climate change effects, which has the potential of jeopardizing the livelihood of thousands of farmers and traders associated with it. The paper discusses the potential and actual impact of climate change process on saffron cultivation in Kashmir; and the biotechnological measures to address these issues. PMID:25072266

  3. Geoengineering and the Risk of Rapid Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, A. J.; Matthews, D.

    2008-12-01

    Many scientists have proposed that geoengineering could be used to artificially cool the planet as a means of reducing CO2-induced climate warming. However, several recent studies have shown some of the potential risks of geoengineering, including negative impacts on stratospheric ozone, the hydrologic cycle and the possibility of rapid climate change in the case of abrupt failure, or rapid decommissioning of geoengineering technology. In this study, we have emulated a geoengineering scenario in the MAGICC climate model, by counteracting the radiative forcing from greenhouse gases. We have used a hypothetical scenario of business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions, in which geoengineering is implemented at the year 2020, and is removed abruptly after 40 years. By varying the climate sensitivity of the MAGICC model, and using previously published estimates of climate sensitivity likelihoods, we are able to derive a probabilistic prediction of the rate of temperature change following the removal of geoengineering. In a simulation without geoengineering (considering only the A1B AIM emissions scenario) the maximum annual rate of temperature change (in the highest climate sensitivity simulation) was 0.5° C per decade. In the geoengineering simulations the maximum annual rate of temperature change, occurring in the year after geoengineering was stopped, varied from 0.22° C per decade for a climate sensitivity of 0.5° C to nearly 8° C per decade for a climate sensitivity of 10° C. The most likely maximum rate of change (corresponding to a climate sensitivity of 2.5° C) was just over 5° C per decade. There is a 99.8 percent probability that the rate of temperature change following the stoppage of geoengineering in this scenario would exceed 3° C per decade. This risk of rapid climate change associated with the use of planetary-scale geoengineering is highly relevant to discussion of climate policies aimed at avoiding "dangerous anthropogenic interference" in the

  4. Game-Changing Innovations: How Culture Can Change the Parameters of Its Own Evolution and Induce Abrupt Cultural Shifts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oren Kolodny

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available One of the most puzzling features of the prehistoric record of hominid stone tools is its apparent punctuation: it consists of abrupt bursts of dramatic change that separate long periods of largely unchanging technology. Within each such period, small punctuated cultural modifications take place. Punctuation on multiple timescales and magnitudes is also found in cultural trajectories from historical times. To explain these sharp cultural bursts, researchers invoke such external factors as sudden environmental change, rapid cognitive or morphological change in the hominids that created the tools, or replacement of one species or population by another. Here we propose a dynamic model of cultural evolution that accommodates empirical observations: without invoking external factors, it gives rise to a pattern of rare, dramatic cultural bursts, interspersed by more frequent, smaller, punctuated cultural modifications. Our model includes interdependent innovation processes that occur at different rates. It also incorporates a realistic aspect of cultural evolution: cultural innovations, such as those that increase food availability or that affect cultural transmission, can change the parameters that affect cultural evolution, thereby altering the population's cultural dynamics and steady state. This steady state can be regarded as a cultural carrying capacity. These parameter-changing cultural innovations occur very rarely, but whenever one occurs, it triggers a dramatic shift towards a new cultural steady state. The smaller and more frequent punctuated cultural changes, on the other hand, are brought about by innovations that spur the invention of further, related, technology, and which occur regardless of whether the population is near its cultural steady state. Our model suggests that common interpretations of cultural shifts as evidence of biological change, for example the appearance of behaviorally modern humans, may be unwarranted.

  5. Africa and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Toulmin, Camilla; Huq, Saleemul

    2006-10-15

    Remember the scenes from New Orleans of flooded streets and scavenging people? One year on and little progress is evident in achieving the step-change needed in controlling greenhouse gases. Hurricane Katrina showed only too vividly the massive power of natural forces combined with inadequate preparation. The flood waters washed away and exposed fully the lack of planning and low priority given to securing life and livelihoods, especially of the more vulnerable groups in the community. If this is what a whirlwind can bring in the southern USA, what might we reap in further storms and droughts tomorrow in poorer parts of the world? New research findings point to the likelihood of larger, faster and more substantial changes to our climate system. The African continent is particularly vulnerable to adverse changes in climate, the evidence for which is becoming more and more stark.

  6. Hantaviruses and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klempa, B

    2009-06-01

    Most hantaviruses are rodent-borne emerging viruses. They cause two significant human diseases, haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Asia and Europe, and hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome in the Americas. Very recently, several novel hantaviruses with unknown pathogenic potential have been identified in Africa and in a variety of insectivores (shrews and a mole). Because there is very limited information available on the possible impact of climate change on all of these highly dangerous pathogens, it is timely to review this aspect of their epidemiology. It can reasonably be concluded that climate change should influence hantaviruses through impacts on the hantavirus reservoir host populations. We can anticipate changes in the size and frequency of hantavirus outbreaks, the spectrum of hantavirus species and geographical distribution (mediated by changes in population densities), and species composition and geographical distribution of their reservoir hosts. The early effects of global warming have already been observed in different geographical areas of Europe. Elevated average temperatures in West-Central Europe have been associated with more frequent Puumala hantavirus outbreaks, through high seed production (mast year) and high bank vole densities. On the other hand, warm winters in Scandinavia have led to a decline in vole populations as a result of the missing protective snow cover. Additional effects can be caused by increased intensity and frequency of extreme climatic events, or by changes in human behaviour leading to higher risk of human virus exposure. Regardless of the extent of climate change, it is difficult to predict the impact on hantavirus survival, emergence and epidemiology. Nevertheless, hantaviruses will undoubtedly remain a significant public health threat for several decades to come.

  7. Smithsonian climate change exhibits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Mohi

    2006-05-01

    Two new museum exhibits, ``Arctic: A Friend Acting Strangely'' and ``Atmosphere: Change is in the Air'' opened 15 April at the Smithsonian Institution's National Museum of Natural History in Washington, D.C., in partnership with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, and the U.S. National Science Foundation. In ``Arctic: A Friend Acting Strangely,'' anecdotes from indigenous polar people reveal how climate changes have affected life within the last 50 years. For example, as permafrost melts and sea ice shrinks, plant distributions and animal migration patterns are changing, severely affecting culture.

  8. Teaching Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donoghue, A.

    2011-09-01

    The science of climate change often gets lost behind the political debate. It presents those of us who teach physical science both the responsibility and the opportunity to teach both the science and, as importantly, the process of science to our students and the general public. Part of the problem is that the science - reconstruction of past climate through the use of proxy sources, such as isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen - is complex, making teaching it to science-averse students and general audiences even more challenging. Also, in our times when every action and statement is suspected of having a political motivation, teaching the process of science - data gathering and analysis, hypothesis testing and peer review - as our way of keeping science as truthful as possible so that the conclusions are more than just another opinion presents as great a challenge as teaching the science itself. I have been teaching a course in Global Climate since 2000, have taught elderhostel courses twice, and have given many public talks on this topic. Thus I have experience in this area to share with others. I would also like to learn of others' approaches to the vast amount of scientific information and getting past the politics. A special interest group on climate change will allow those of us to teach this important topic to share how we approach both the science and the politics of this issue.

  9. Managing Climate Change Risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, R. [CSIRO Atmospheric Research, PMB1 Aspendale, Victoria 3195 (Australia)

    2003-07-01

    Issues of uncertainty, scale and delay between action and response mean that 'dangerous' climate change is best managed within a risk assessment framework that evolves as new information is gathered. Risk can be broadly defined as the combination of likelihood and consequence; the latter measured as vulnerability to greenhouse-induced climate change. The most robust way to assess climate change damages in a probabilistic framework is as the likelihood of critical threshold exceedance. Because vulnerability is dominated by local factors, global vulnerability is the aggregation of many local impacts being forced beyond their coping ranges. Several case studies, generic sea level rise and temperature, coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef and water supply in an Australian catchment, are used to show how local risk assessments can be assessed then expressed as a function of global warming. Impacts treated thus can be aggregated to assess global risks consistent with Article 2 of the UNFCCC. A 'proof of concept' example is then used to show how the stabilisation of greenhouse gases can constrain the likelihood of exceeding critical thresholds at both the both local and global scale. This analysis suggests that even if the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the benefits of avoiding climate damages can be estimated, the likelihood of being able to meet a cost-benefit target is limited by both physical and socio-economic uncertainties. In terms of managing climate change risks, adaptation will be most effective at reducing vulnerability likely to occur at low levels of warming. Successive efforts to mitigate greenhouse gases will reduce the likelihood of reaching levels of global warming from the top down, with the highest potential temperatures being avoided first, irrespective of contributing scientific uncertainties. This implies that the first cuts in emissions will always produce the largest economic benefits in terms of avoided

  10. Evidence for an abrupt climatic reversal during the Last Interglacial on the northeast Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lu, H.; Vandenberghe, J.; Miao, X.; Tan, H.; Ma, H.

    2006-01-01

    Climatic change over Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is controlled by alternation of the plateau summer and winter monsoon circulation, which is triggered by thermodynamic and kinetic effects of the high plateau morphology. Loess-paleosol sequences in northeast Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau are investigated to

  11. The neurobiology of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donnell, Sean

    2018-02-01

    Directional climate change (global warming) is causing rapid alterations in animals' environments. Because the nervous system is at the forefront of animals' interactions with the environment, the neurobiological implications of climate change are central to understanding how individuals, and ultimately populations, will respond to global warming. Evidence is accumulating for individual level, mechanistic effects of climate change on nervous system development and performance. Climate change can also alter sensory stimuli, changing the effectiveness of sensory and cognitive systems for achieving biological fitness. At the population level, natural selection forces stemming from directional climate change may drive rapid evolutionary change in nervous system structure and function.

  12. Market strategies for climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kolk, A.; Pinkse, J.M.

    2004-01-01

    The issue of climate change has attracted increasing business attention in the past decade. Whereas companies initially aimed primarily at influencing the policy debate, corporate strategies increasingly include economic responses. Existing classifications for climate change strategies however still

  13. Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    S. Mark Howden; Jean-François Soussana; Francesco N. Tubiello; Netra Chhetri; Michael Dunlop; Holger Meinke

    2007-01-01

    The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently...

  14. Grapevine phenology and climate change in Georgia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cola, G; Failla, O; Maghradze, D; Megrelidze, L; Mariani, L

    2017-04-01

    While the climate of Western Europe has been deeply affected by the abrupt climate change that took place in the late '1980s of the twentieth century, a similar signal is detected only few years later, in 1994, in Georgia. Grapevine phenology is deeply influenced by climate and this paper aimed to analyze how phenological timing changed before and after the climatic change of 1994. Availability of thermal resources in the two climatic phases for the five altitudinal belts in the 0-1250-m range was analyzed. A phenological dataset gathered in two experimental sites during the period 2012-2014, and a suitable thermal dataset was used to calibrate a phenological model based on the normal approach and able to describe BBCH phenological stages 61 (beginning of flowering), 71 (fruit set), and 81 (veraison). Calibration was performed for four relevant Georgian varieties (Mtsvane Kakhuri, Rkatsiteli, Ojaleshi, and Saperavi). The model validation was performed on an independent 3-year dataset gathered in Gorizia (Italy). Furthermore, in the case of variety Rkatsiteli, the model was applied to the 1974-2013 thermal time series in order to obtain phenological maps of the Georgian territory. Results show that after the climate change of 1994, Rkatsiteli showed an advance, more relevant at higher altitudes where the whole increase of thermal resource was effectively translated in phenological advance. For instance the average advance of veraison was 5.9 days for 250-500 m asl belt and 18.1 days for 750-1000 m asl). On the other hand, at lower altitudes, phenological advance was depleted by superoptimal temperatures. As a final result, some suggestions for the adaptation of viticultural practices to the current climatic phase are provided.

  15. Grapevine phenology and climate change in Georgia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cola, G.; Failla, O.; Maghradze, D.; Megrelidze, L.; Mariani, L.

    2017-04-01

    While the climate of Western Europe has been deeply affected by the abrupt climate change that took place in the late `1980s of the twentieth century, a similar signal is detected only few years later, in 1994, in Georgia. Grapevine phenology is deeply influenced by climate and this paper aimed to analyze how phenological timing changed before and after the climatic change of 1994. Availability of thermal resources in the two climatic phases for the five altitudinal belts in the 0-1250-m range was analyzed. A phenological dataset gathered in two experimental sites during the period 2012-2014, and a suitable thermal dataset was used to calibrate a phenological model based on the normal approach and able to describe BBCH phenological stages 61 (beginning of flowering), 71 (fruit set), and 81 (veraison). Calibration was performed for four relevant Georgian varieties (Mtsvane Kakhuri, Rkatsiteli, Ojaleshi, and Saperavi). The model validation was performed on an independent 3-year dataset gathered in Gorizia (Italy). Furthermore, in the case of variety Rkatsiteli, the model was applied to the 1974-2013 thermal time series in order to obtain phenological maps of the Georgian territory. Results show that after the climate change of 1994, Rkatsiteli showed an advance, more relevant at higher altitudes where the whole increase of thermal resource was effectively translated in phenological advance. For instance the average advance of veraison was 5.9 days for 250-500 m asl belt and 18.1 days for 750-1000 m asl). On the other hand, at lower altitudes, phenological advance was depleted by superoptimal temperatures. As a final result, some suggestions for the adaptation of viticultural practices to the current climatic phase are provided.

  16. Climate change and child health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seal, Arnab; Vasudevan, Chakrapani

    2011-12-01

    Postindustrial human activity has contributed to rising atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases causing global warming and climate change. The adverse effects of climate change affect children disproportionately, especially in the developing world. Urgent action is necessary to mitigate the causes and adapt to the negative effects of climate change. Paediatricians have an important role in managing the effects of climate change on children and promoting sustainable development.

  17. Lay rationalities of climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Alves,Fátima; Caeiro, Sandra; Azeiteiro, Ulisses

    2014-01-01

    In this special issue we were also interested in revealing the level of concepts and the level of social action, trying to contribute to the answer of questions like: How local populations explain, interpret and deal with climate change? What are the individual and collective actions in response to climate change? How do populations deal with Climate Change mitigation (risk perception and risk-mitigating)? What is the available traditional knowledge about Climate Change? How does the cu...

  18. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    The absence of a global agreement on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions calls for adaptation to climate change. The associated paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change...... adaptation needed. Issues that must be addressed in case a strategic approach is not developed, as the building sector is continuously investing in measures to adapt to climate change as impacts emerge are described....

  19. Designing Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, P. C.; ORyan, C.

    2012-12-01

    In a time when sensationalism rules the online world, it is best to keep things short. The people of the online world are not passing back and forth lengthy articles, but rather brief glimpses of complex information. This is the target audience we attempt to educate. Our challenge is then to attack not only ignorance, but also apathy toward global climate change, while conforming to popular modes of learning. When communicating our scientific material, it was difficult to determine what level of information was appropriate for our audience, especially with complex subject matter. Our unconventional approach for communicating the carbon crisis as it applies to global climate change caters to these 'recreational learners'. Using story-telling devices acquired from Carolyne's biomedical art background coupled with Peter's extensive knowledge of carbon cycle and ecosystems science, we developed a dynamic series of illustrations that capture the attention of a callous audience. Adapting complex carbon cycle and climate science into comic-book-style animations creates a channel between artist, scientist, and the general public. Brief scenes of information accompanied by text provide a perfect platform for visual learners, as well as fresh portrayals of stale material for the jaded. In this way art transcends the barriers of the cerebral and the abstract, paving the road to understanding.;

  20. Understanding recent climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serreze, Mark C

    2010-02-01

    The Earth's atmosphere has a natural greenhouse effect, without which the global mean surface temperature would be about 33 degrees C lower and life would not be possible. Human activities have increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and other gases in trace amounts. This has enhanced the greenhouse effect, resulting in surface warming. Were it not for the partly offsetting effects of increased aerosol concentrations, the increase in global mean surface temperature over the past 100 years would be larger than observed. Continued surface warming through the 21st century is inevitable and will likely have widespread ecological impacts. The magnitude and rate of warming for the global average will be largely dictated by the strength and direction of climate feedbacks, thermal inertia of the oceans, the rate of greenhouse gas emissions, and aerosol concentrations. Because of regional expressions of climate feedbacks, changes in atmospheric circulation, and a suite of other factors, the magnitude and rate of warming and changes in other key climate elements, such as precipitation, will not be uniform across the planet. For example, due to loss of its floating sea-ice cover, the Arctic will warm the most.

  1. MAINSTREAMING CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION INTO ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2017-10-02

    Oct 2, 2017 ... need to mainstream climate change adaptation into development planning at the national and sub-national levels ... and the risks associated with climate change will become more severe over time. In .... sustainable natural resource management, but broader policies relating to climate change are yet to be ...

  2. Climate Change and Natural Disasters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Merkouris, Panos; Negri, Stefania; Maljean-Dubois, Sandrine

    2014-01-01

    Only 21 years ago, in 1992, the first ever convention on climate change, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was signed. The science behind studying climate change and its effects on the environment is not only mind-boggling but still in its infancy. It should come

  3. Climate change and the biosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    F. Stuart Chapin

    2008-01-01

    Scientific assessments now clearly demonstrate the ecologic and societal consequences of human induced climate change, as detailed by the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. Global warming spells danger for Earth's biomes, which in turn play an important role in climate change. On the following pages, you will read about some of...

  4. Population and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Joel E

    2010-06-01

    To review, the four broad dimensions of any complex human problem, including climate change, are the human population, economics, culture, and environment. These dimensions interact with one another in all directions and on many time-scales. From 2010 to 2050, the human population is likely to grow bigger, more slowly, older, and more urban. It is projected that by 2050 more than 2.6 billion people (almost 94% of global urban growth) will be added to the urban population in today's developing countries. That works out to 1.26 million additional urban people in today's developing countries every week from 2010 to 2050. Humans alter the climate by emitting greenhouse gases, by altering planetary albedo, and by altering atmospheric components. Between 1900 and 2000, humans' emissions of carbon into the atmosphere increased fifteenfold, while the numbers of people increased less than fourfold. Population growth alone, with constant rates of emissions per person, could not account for the increase in the carbon emissions to the atmosphere. The world economy grew sixteenfold in the twentieth century, accompanied by enormous increases in the burning of gas, oil, and coal. In the last quarter of the twentieth century, population grew much faster in developing countries than in high-income countries, and, compared with population growth, the growth of carbon emissions to the atmosphere was even faster in developing countries than in high-income countries. The ratio of emissions-to-population growth rates was 2.8 in developing countries compared with 1.6 in high-income countries. Emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases are influenced by the sizes and density of settlements, the sizes of households, and the ages of householders. Between 2010 and 2050, these demographic factors are anticipated to change substantially. Therefore demography will play a substantial role in the dynamics of climate changes. Climate changes affect many aspects of the living environment

  5. A solar (irradiance) trigger for millennial-scale abrupt changes in the southwest monsoon?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higginson, Matthew J.; Altabet, Mark A.; Wincze, Lauren; Herbert, Timothy D.; Murray, David W.

    2004-09-01

    Marine sedimentary records of the last glacial from tropical monsoon latitudes indicate climate fluctuations comparable to rapid changes in δ18O recorded in Greenland. Synchronizing two high-resolution sedimentary records from the Oman and Pakistan margins, we resolve millennial-scale reversals in sea surface temperature (SST) gradient (ΔSST) across the Arabian Sea which directly correspond with the majority of Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events for the last 65 kyr. The relative amplitude of individual monsoon and D-O events appears comparable, suggesting coupled and at least hemispheric forcing. To explore this quasi-cyclic forcing, we compare alkenone-based geologic data with modern satellite-derived ΔSST estimates between sites. Interstadial conditions fall within the range of monsoons during the Holocene, but stadial conditions have no analogs. Following published associations between Eurasian Winter Snow Cover (EWSC) and monsoon rainfall, and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and anomalous EWSC, we find a good correlation between the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Arabian Sea ΔSST throughout the modern data set. An apparent 11-year cyclicity in the SOI reveals an association between the monsoon, SOI, and solar output variability. The SOI primarily tracks solar total irradiance, but the SOI monsoon linkage becomes nonlinear during excursions of the SOI associated with El Niño Events. Strong El Niños coincide precisely with minimum solar irradiance during the solar cycle, which we attribute to threshold behavior in tropical Pacific SSTs and associated trade wind strength. We propose that both short-term (interannual-decadal) and long-term (centennial-millennial) changes in solar output are consistent with records of ENSO variability, monsoon intensity, and D-O event timing.

  6. Climate Change and National Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-01

    does not display a currently valid OMB control number. PLEASE DO NOT RETURN YOUR FORM TO THE ABOVE ADDRESS. a. REPORT Climate Change and National...Security 14. ABSTRACT 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: Does climate change constitute a national security threat to the United States? What is climate ...resources for an in-depth discussion on national security and climate change . 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES

  7. Interdisciplinarity, Climate, and Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, R. S.

    2016-12-01

    Interdisciplinarity has become synonymous with all things progressive about research and education. This is so not simply because of a philosophical belief in the heterogeneity of knowledge but because of the scientific and social complexities of problems of major concern. The increased demand for improved climate knowledge and information has increased pressure to support planning under changing rates of extremes event occurrence, is well-documented. The application of useful climate data, information and knowledge requires multiple networks and information services infrastructure that support planning and implementation. As widely quoted, Pasteur's quadrant is a label given to a class of scientific research methodologies that seeks fundamental understanding of scientific problems and, simultaneously, to benefit society-what Stokes called "use-inspired research". Innovation, in this context, has been defined as "the process by which individuals and organizations generate new ideas and put them into practice". A growing number of research institutes and programs have begun developing a cadre of professionals focused on integrating basic and applied research in areas such as climate risk assessment and adaptation. There are now several examples of where researchers and teams have crafted examples that include affected communities. In this presentation we will outline the lessons from several efforts including the PACE program, the RISAs, NIDIS, the Climate Services Information System and other interdisciplinary service-oriented efforts in which the author has been involved. Some early lessons include the need to: Recognize that key concerns of social innovation go beyond the projections of climate and other global changes to embrace multiple methods Continue to train scientists of all stripes of disciplinary norms, but higher education should also prepare students who plan to seek careers outside of academia by increasing flexibility in graduate training programs

  8. The Ecological consequences of global climate change

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Woodward, F. I

    1992-01-01

    ... & land use - modeling potential responses of vegetation to global climate change - effects of climatic change on population dynamics of crop pests - responses of soils to climate change - predicting...

  9. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    2014-01-01

    . This absence of an agreement calls for adaptation to climate change. Emphasis should be put on buildings, as they play a vital economic and social role in society and are vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, the building stock deserves its own policy and implementation plans as well as tools that enable...... adequate and cost-efficient adaptation to climate change. This paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change adaptation needed. The suggested and presented need of a strategic approach is based...... on three main initiatives consisting of the need to examine the potential impacts of climate change on the building stock, the need to assess and develop a roadmap of current and future adaptation measures that can withstand the effects of climate change, and the need to engage relevant stakeholders...

  10. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    2013-01-01

    . This absence of an agreement calls for adaptation to climate change. Emphasis should be put on buildings, as they play a vital economic and social role in society and are vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, the building stock deserves its own policy and implementation plans as well as tools that enable...... adequate and cost-efficient adaptation to climate change. This paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change adaptation needed. The suggested and presented need of a strategic approach is based...... on three main initiatives consisting of the need to examine the potential impacts of climate change on the building stock, the need to assess and develop a roadmap of current and future adaptation measures that can withstand the effects of climate change, and the need to engage relevant stakeholders...

  11. Climate Changes around the world

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kahl, J.

    2009-07-01

    This presentation addresses several important aspects of the climate changes that are occurring around the globe. the causes of climate change are first reviewed, with illustrations of orbital oscillations, the atmospheric greenhouse effect, and aerosol effects. Observed changes in climate are next reviewed, both thought many millenia and during the past century. Distinctions are made between global warming and regional changes in temperature and precipitation. Changes in the frequency of weather extremes, including heat waves and tropical storms, are also discussed. (Author)

  12. Armillaria Pathogenesis under Climate Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katarzyna Kubiak

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate changes influencing forest ecosystems include increased air temperatures and CO2 concentrations as well as droughts and decreased water availability. These changes in turn effect changes in species composition of both host plants and pathogens. In the case of Armillaria, climate changes cause an increase in the activity of individual species and modify the growth of rhizomorphs, increasing the susceptibility of trees. The relationship between climate changes and the biotic elements of Armillaria disease are discussed in overview.

  13. Abrupt fire regime change may cause landscape-wide loss of mature obligate seeder forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowman, David M J S; Murphy, Brett P; Neyland, Dominic L J; Williamson, Grant J; Prior, Lynda D

    2014-03-01

    Obligate seeder trees requiring high-severity fires to regenerate may be vulnerable to population collapse if fire frequency increases abruptly. We tested this proposition using a long-lived obligate seeding forest tree, alpine ash (Eucalyptus delegatensis), in the Australian Alps. Since 2002, 85% of the Alps bioregion has been burnt by several very large fires, tracking the regional trend of more frequent extreme fire weather. High-severity fires removed 25% of aboveground tree biomass, and switched fuel arrays from low loads of herbaceous and litter fuels to high loads of flammable shrubs and juvenile trees, priming regenerating stands for subsequent fires. Single high-severity fires caused adult mortality and triggered mass regeneration, but a second fire in quick succession killed 97% of the regenerating alpine ash. Our results indicate that without interventions to reduce fire severity, interactions between flammability of regenerating stands and increased extreme fire weather will eliminate much of the remaining mature alpine ash forest. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Climate Change and Mental Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trombley, Janna; Chalupka, Stephanie; Anderko, Laura

    2017-04-01

    : Climate change is an enormous challenge for our communities, our country, and our world. Recently much attention has been paid to the physical impacts of climate change, including extreme heat events, droughts, extreme storms, and rising sea levels. However, much less attention has been paid to the psychological impacts. This article examines the likely psychological impacts of climate change, including anxiety, stress, and depression; increases in violence and aggression; and loss of community identity. Nurses can play a vital role in local and regional climate strategies by preparing their patients, health care facilities, and communities to effectively address the anticipated mental health impacts of climate change.

  15. Inter-hemispheric linkages in climate change: paleo-perspectives for future climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shulmeister, J.; Rodbell, D. T.; Gagan, M. K.; Seltzer, G. O.

    2006-02-01

    periodicities are present, with the inter-annual signal dominant. Paleo-data demonstrate that the relative importance of the two periodicities changes through time, with longer periodicities dominant in the early Holocene. style="line-height: 20px;"> 3. The recognition of climate modulation of oscillatory systems by abrupt climate events: We examine the relationship of ENSO to an abrupt SH climate event, the Antarctic cold reversal (ACR), in the New Zealand region. We demonstrate that the onset of the ACR was associated with the apparent switching on of an ENSO signal in New Zealand. We infer that this related to enhanced zonal SW winds with the amplification of the pressure fields allowing an existing but weak ENSO signal to manifest itself. Teleconnections of this nature would be difficult to predict for future abrupt change as boundary conditions cannot readily be specified. Paleo-data are critical to predicting the teleconnections of future abrupt changes.

  16. Health Effects of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... is known about the actual and potential human health impacts of climate change, many effects are speculative and targeted research efforts ... extensive research needs, particularly regarding adaptive responses to climate ... Examples of key research needs include: Identifying health ...

  17. Climate Change and Poverty Reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Simon

    2011-08-15

    Climate change will make it increasingly difficult to achieve and sustain development goals. This is largely because climate effects on poverty remain poorly understood, and poverty reduction strategies do not adequately support climate resilience. Ensuring effective development in the face of climate change requires action on six fronts: investing in a stronger climate and poverty evidence base; applying the learning about development effectiveness to how we address adaptation needs; supporting nationally derived, integrated policies and programmes; including the climate-vulnerable poor in developing strategies; and identifying how mitigation strategies can also reduce poverty and enable adaptation.

  18. No Abrupt Changes in redox conditions associated with the end-Permian marine ecosystem collapse in the east Greenland basin

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jesper K.; Shen, Y; Piasecki, Stefan

    2010-01-01

    Multiple observations have revealed that environmental disturbances may have been linked to the end-Permian mass extinction and delayed biotic recovery. Biogeochemical constraints on the temporal and spatial changes of oceanic redox chemistry during the Permian–Triassic interval are essential...... to evaluate global significance of previous hypotheses and to improve our understanding of extinction and recovery processes. To investigate redox ocean chemistry change associated with the end-Permian extinction and subsequent delayed biotic recovery, we examine framboidal pyrites as well as sulfur isotopic...... is not indicative of an abrupt change of redox chemistry in water columns, in contrast to previous claims. The integration of isotope and framboidal pyrite data provides a nearly continuous record of ocean chemistry evolution and new insights into the end-Permian extinction and delayed biotic recovery in the East...

  19. Changing heathlands in a changing climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ransijn, Johannes

    Atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperatures are rising and precipitation regimes are changing at global scale. How ecosystem will be affected by global climatic change is dependent on the responses of plants and plant communities. This thesis focuses on how climate change affects heathland...... plant communities. Many heathlands have shifted from dwarf shrub dominance to grass dominance and climatic change might affect the competitive balance between dwarf shrubs and grasses. We looked at heathland vegetation dynamics and heathland plant responses to climatic change at different spatial......) a study on the effects of elevated atmospheric CO2-concentration, warming and drought on the photosynthetic capacity and phenology of C. vulgaris and D. flexuosa in an outdoor climate change experiment on a grassy heathland in Denmark; 4) a study on climate change impacts on the competitive interactions...

  20. Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review

    OpenAIRE

    Thornton, Philip K; Ericksen, Polly J.; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J

    2014-01-01

    The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food syst...

  1. Climate change and marine life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Anthony J; Brown, Christopher J; Brander, Keith; Bruno, John F; Buckley, Lauren; Burrows, Michael T; Duarte, Carlos M; Halpern, Benjamin S; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Holding, Johnna; Kappel, Carrie V; Kiessling, Wolfgang; Moore, Pippa J; O'Connor, Mary I; Pandolfi, John M; Parmesan, Camille; Schoeman, David S; Schwing, Frank; Sydeman, William J; Poloczanska, Elvira S

    2012-12-23

    A Marine Climate Impacts Workshop was held from 29 April to 3 May 2012 at the US National Center of Ecological Analysis and Synthesis in Santa Barbara. This workshop was the culmination of a series of six meetings over the past three years, which had brought together 25 experts in climate change ecology, analysis of large datasets, palaeontology, marine ecology and physical oceanography. Aims of these workshops were to produce a global synthesis of climate impacts on marine biota, to identify sensitive habitats and taxa, to inform the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) process, and to strengthen research into ecological impacts of climate change.

  2. Abrupt ecological changes in the last 800 years inferred from a mountainous bog using testate amoebae traits and multi-proxy data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kajukało, Katarzyna; Fiałkiewicz-Kozieł, Barbara; Gałka, Mariusz; Kołaczek, Piotr; Lamentowicz, Mariusz

    2016-09-01

    Mountainous peatlands of Western Sudetes are considered a unique habitat in Central Europe. The region contains one of the largest raised bog complexes in temperate Europe and is thus of great importance for biodiversity conservation. In this first high-resolution study from this region we use long-term ecological data to assess how these mountain wetland ecosystems responded to anthropogenic impacts and climate change. We used testate amoebae morphological traits, micro- and macroscopic charcoal, pollen and plant macrofossils to reconstruct the history of peatland development over 800 years, illustrating shifts in its development and fire dynamics. Five hydrological stages of peatland development were recognized. Testate amoebae morphological traits reflected several abrupt ecological changes linked to anthropogenic modifications of landscape openness. A shift towards mixotrophic taxa, linked to hydrological change or shrubs expansion and shading, preceded aperture position change, which was associated to dust input through surrounding deforestation and simultaneous water-table increase. Fire reconstruction revealed increasing burning together with intensifying human activity, including the expansion of a nearby settlement. This study confirms the potential of testate amoeba communities and the use of morpho-functional traits as indicators of ecological effects of land-use change over long-temporal scales. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  3. A change of climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mitchell, A.

    2005-06-01

    Improvements in our understanding of climate change over the past decade are discussed. The main change has been that all the people, including business and industry leaders, municipalities and even national governments have moved beyond denial, and everyone acknowledges that we have to tread more lightly on the planet if we are to survive. The need is for stabilizing the climate by finding clean, and preferably renewable, sources of energy -- wind, solar, tidal or geothermal energy - possibly delivered as electricity through hydrogen fuel cells. Harnessing waste products from burning fossil fuels and using them for something productive is another way to achieve the cuts in pollution that is the greatest challenge humanity is likely ever to face. Supplementing the main article is a series of vignettes focusing on environmental innovations over the past decade, issues that have stagnated during the same period, and issues on which significant progress may be achieved during the coming decade. Growing organic foods, greening garbage, promoting sustainable use of boreal forests, replacing gasoline-driven vehicles with hybrids, are some of the areas where progress has been made during the past ten years, whereas toxic ingredients in foods, inadequate treatment of domestic and industrial waste, collapse of the cod fishery in Newfoundland and toxic tailings dotting the Canadian landscape, are some of the areas which suffered from benign neglect over the same period. Increased application of nano technology to food production, although not without dangers as yet dimly understood, innovative waste management programs, including putting the responsibility for disposal on the shoulders of the producer to provide greater incentive for reuse and recycling, managing marine resources for sustainable use, and applying ecosystem principles to industrial manufacturing processes, are some of the issues expected to be on the forefront of environmental concerns during the next decade.

  4. Climate Change Mitigation A Balanced Approach to Climate Change

    CERN Document Server

    2012-01-01

    This book provides a fresh and innovative perspective on climate change policy. By emphasizing the multiple facets of climate policy, from mitigation to adaptation, from technological innovation and diffusion to governance issues, it contains a comprehensive overview of the economic and policy dimensions of the climate problem. The keyword of the book is balance. The book clarifies that climate change cannot be controlled by sacrificing economic growth and many other urgent global issues. At the same time, action to control climate change cannot be delayed, even though gradually implemented. Therefore, on the one hand climate policy becomes pervasive and affects all dimensions of international policy. On the other hand, climate policy cannot be too ambitious: a balanced approach between mitigation and adaptation, between economic growth and resource management, between short term development efforts and long term innovation investments, should be adopted. I recommend its reading. Carlo Carraro, President, Ca�...

  5. Military Adaptation to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-01

    of Defense United States of America Environment, Energy Security and Sustainability Symposium (May 9-12, 2011) Military Adaptation to Climate Change ...2011 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2011 to 00-00-2011 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Military Adaptation to Climate Change 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER... climate change . …” Remarks at the Halifax International Security Forum, Halifax, Nova Scotia Nov 2009 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review For the first

  6. Towards Applying Climate Change Adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Schmidt-Thomé, Philipp

    2017-01-01

    Climate change adaptation has been growing in importance since the beginning of the 21st century. Historically adaptation, not to climate change but to extreme events, was deeply rooted in many societies and their land-use structures. With industrialization, and especially the increase in globalization since the 1990’s the importance of appropriate adaptation has slowly decreased, leading to increased exposure and risks of human settlements in areas potentially affected by climate change impa...

  7. Climate Change and Future World

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-01

    have more capabilities to cope with and adapt to 12 adverse climatic changes ; in contrast, societies that already present elements of instability...higher than the global mean. The entire area is already affected by a lack of water. Climatic changes will further aggravate this situation in the years...trends67: Due to climatic changes , European countries are expected to experience higher temperatures than the global mean, especially in northern Europe

  8. Early Warning Signals for Abrupt Change Raise False Alarm During Sea Ice Loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, T. J. W.; Eisenman, I.

    2015-12-01

    Uncovering universal early warning signals for critical transitions has become a coveted goal in diverse scientific disciplines, ranging from climate science to financial mathematics. There has been a flurry of recent research proposing such signals, with increasing autocorrelation and increasing variance being among the most widely discussed candidates. A number of studies have suggested that increasing autocorrelation alone may suffice to signal an impending transition, although some others have questioned this. Here, we consider variance and autocorrelation in the context of sea ice loss in an idealized model of the global climate system. The model features no bifurcation, nor increased rate of retreat, as the ice disappears. Nonetheless, the autocorrelation of summer sea ice area is found to increase with diminishing sea ice cover in a global warming scenario. The variance, by contrast, decreases. A simple physical mechanism is proposed to explain the occurrence of increasing autocorrelation but not variance in the model when there is no approaching bifurcation. Additionally, a similar mechanism is shown to allow an increase in both indicators with no physically attainable bifurcation. This implies that relying on autocorrelation and variance as early warning signals can raise false alarms in the climate system, warning of "tipping points" that are not actually there.

  9. Floods in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theresa K. Andersen; Marshall J. Shepherd

    2013-01-01

    Atmospheric warming and associated hydrological changes have implications for regional flood intensity and frequency. Climate models and hydrological models have the ability to integrate various contributing factors and assess potential changes to hydrology at global to local scales through the century. This survey of floods in a changing climate reviews flood...

  10. Cinematic climate change, a promising perspective on climate change communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakellari, Maria

    2015-10-01

    Previous research findings display that after having seen popular climate change films, people became more concerned, more motivated and more aware of climate change, but changes in behaviors were short-term. This article performs a meta-analysis of three popular climate change films, The Day after Tomorrow (2005), An Inconvenient Truth (2006), and The Age of Stupid (2009), drawing on research in social psychology, human agency, and media effect theory in order to formulate a rationale about how mass media communication shapes our everyday life experience. This article highlights the factors with which science blends in the reception of the three climate change films and expands the range of options considered in order to encourage people to engage in climate change mitigation actions. © The Author(s) 2014.

  11. Climate@Home: Crowdsourcing Climate Change Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, C.; Yang, C.; Li, J.; Sun, M.; Bambacus, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change deeply impacts human wellbeing. Significant amounts of resources have been invested in building super-computers that are capable of running advanced climate models, which help scientists understand climate change mechanisms, and predict its trend. Although climate change influences all human beings, the general public is largely excluded from the research. On the other hand, scientists are eagerly seeking communication mediums for effectively enlightening the public on climate change and its consequences. The Climate@Home project is devoted to connect the two ends with an innovative solution: crowdsourcing climate computing to the general public by harvesting volunteered computing resources from the participants. A distributed web-based computing platform will be built to support climate computing, and the general public can 'plug-in' their personal computers to participate in the research. People contribute the spare computing power of their computers to run a computer model, which is used by scientists to predict climate change. Traditionally, only super-computers could handle such a large computing processing load. By orchestrating massive amounts of personal computers to perform atomized data processing tasks, investments on new super-computers, energy consumed by super-computers, and carbon release from super-computers are reduced. Meanwhile, the platform forms a social network of climate researchers and the general public, which may be leveraged to raise climate awareness among the participants. A portal is to be built as the gateway to the climate@home project. Three types of roles and the corresponding functionalities are designed and supported. The end users include the citizen participants, climate scientists, and project managers. Citizen participants connect their computing resources to the platform by downloading and installing a computing engine on their personal computers. Computer climate models are defined at the server side. Climate

  12. Climate change and human health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Warren, John A; Berner, James E; Curtis, Tine

    2005-01-01

    In northern regions, climate change can include changes in precipitation magnitude and frequency, reductions in sea ice extent and thickness, and climate warming and cooling. These changes can increase the frequency and severity of storms, flooding, or erosion; other changes may include drought...... or degradation of permafrost. Climate change can result in damage to sanitation infrastructure resulting in the spread of disease or threatening a community's ability to maintain its economy, geographic location and cultural tradition, leading to mental stress. Through monitoring of some basic indicators...... communities can begin to develop a response to climate change. With this information, planners, engineers, health care professionals and governments can begin to develop approaches to address the challenges related to climate change....

  13. Aerodynamic and Acoustic Effects of Abrupt Frequency Changes in Excised Larynges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alipour, Fariborz; Finnegan, Eileen M.; Scherer, Ronald C.

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: To determine the aerodynamic and acoustic effects due to a sudden change from chest to falsetto register or vice versa. It was hypothesized that the continuous change in subglottal pressure and flow rate alone (pressure-flow sweep [PFS]) can trigger a mode change in the canine larynx. Method: Ten canine larynges were each mounted over a…

  14. Response of Fresh Water Distributions on Abrupt Changes of Topography in the Pearl River Networks of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mu Shousheng

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A 2-D numerical model was used to study the response of fresh water transports and distributions on the abrupt changes of topography in the Pearl River Networks (RNPRD. The results indicate that both the tidal forces in Jiaomen and Humen and the runoff power in Modaomen are intensified, which leads to a fresh water movement from the northeast to the southwest side of the West and North River Delta Networks. However, the water distributions in the East River Delta Networks remain almost the same. The residual currents in the RNPRD decreased dramatically in the West and North River Delta Networks due to the increasing volume of the river channels. This decreasing trend was intensified in the North River Main Channel due to the annual water discharge redistribution in the RNPRD.

  15. Abrupt Intralesional Color Change on Dermoscopy as a New Indicator of Early Superficial Spreading Melanoma in a Japanese Woman

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Sadayasu

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Diagnosis of superficial spreading melanoma in the early stage is often difficult, even with dermoscopy. We report the case of a 37-year-old Japanese woman with superficial spreading melanoma in her left buttock. The lesion developed 20 years before becoming visible and gradually enlarged over the past few years without any symptoms. Physical examination showed a well-demarcated dark-brown macule 10 mm in diameter. Dermoscopy demonstrated a central dark area with a blue-grey structureless area, a milky-red area with irregular blue-grey dots or globules suggestive of regression structures, and multifocal black pigmentation with whitish scaly areas. An abrupt intralesional change in color from a central dark area to a peripheral light-brown area was also seen. The peripheral area showed an atypical pigment network with an obscure mesh and holes. Histopathologic examination of the lesion showed acanthosis with melanocytic proliferation and nuclear atypia, a band-like lymphocytic infiltrate, melanophages and a few nests of melanocytes just beneath the epidermis. The epidermal melanocytes were positive for S-100, Melan-A and HMB-45, but the dermal nests of melanocytes were negative for HMB-45 and positive for S-100 and Melan-A. A diagnosis of superficial spreading melanoma with a tumor thickness of 0.4 mm (pT1aN0M0, stage 1A was established based on the clinical, dermoscopic and histopathologic findings. This case suggests that dermoscopy is useful in the diagnosis of this condition. An abrupt intralesional change of color might be a new indicator of early superficial spreading melanoma.

  16. Scaling Climate Change Communication for Behavior Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, V. C.; Lappé, M.; Flora, J. A.; Ardoin, N. M.; Robinson, T. N.

    2014-12-01

    Ultimately, effective climate change communication results in a change in behavior, whether the change is individual, household or collective actions within communities. We describe two efforts to promote climate-friendly behavior via climate communication and behavior change theory. Importantly these efforts are designed to scale climate communication principles focused on behavior change rather than soley emphasizing climate knowledge or attitudes. Both cases are embedded in rigorous evaluations (randomized controlled trial and quasi-experimental) of primary and secondary outcomes as well as supplementary analyses that have implications for program refinement and program scaling. In the first case, the Girl Scouts "Girls Learning Environment and Energy" (GLEE) trial is scaling the program via a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) for Troop Leaders to teach the effective home electricity and food and transportation energy reduction programs. The second case, the Alliance for Climate Education (ACE) Assembly Program, is advancing the already-scaled assembly program by using communication principles to further engage youth and their families and communities (school and local communities) in individual and collective actions. Scaling of each program uses online learning platforms, social media and "behavior practice" videos, mastery practice exercises, virtual feedback and virtual social engagement to advance climate-friendly behavior change. All of these communication practices aim to simulate and advance in-person train-the-trainers technologies.As part of this presentation we outline scaling principles derived from these two climate change communication and behavior change programs.

  17. Climate change, conflict and health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowles, Devin C; Butler, Colin D; Morisetti, Neil

    2015-10-01

    Future climate change is predicted to diminish essential natural resource availability in many regions and perhaps globally. The resulting scarcity of water, food and livelihoods could lead to increasingly desperate populations that challenge governments, enhancing the risk of intra- and interstate conflict. Defence establishments and some political scientists view climate change as a potential threat to peace. While the medical literature increasingly recognises climate change as a fundamental health risk, the dimension of climate change-associated conflict has so far received little attention, despite its profound health implications. Many analysts link climate change with a heightened risk of conflict via causal pathways which involve diminishing or changing resource availability. Plausible consequences include: increased frequency of civil conflict in developing countries; terrorism, asymmetric warfare, state failure; and major regional conflicts. The medical understanding of these threats is inadequate, given the scale of health implications. The medical and public health communities have often been reluctant to interpret conflict as a health issue. However, at times, medical workers have proven powerful and effective peace advocates, most notably with regard to nuclear disarmament. The public is more motivated to mitigate climate change when it is framed as a health issue. Improved medical understanding of the association between climate change and conflict could strengthen mitigation efforts and increase cooperation to cope with the climate change that is now inevitable. © The Royal Society of Medicine.

  18. Climate Change and Collective Violence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Barry S; Sidel, Victor W; Patz, Jonathan A

    2017-03-20

    Climate change is causing increases in temperature, changes in precipitation and extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and other environmental impacts. It is also causing or contributing to heat-related disorders, respiratory and allergic disorders, infectious diseases, malnutrition due to food insecurity, and mental health disorders. In addition, increasing evidence indicates that climate change is causally associated with collective violence, generally in combination with other causal factors. Increased temperatures and extremes of precipitation with their associated consequences, including resultant scarcity of cropland and other key environmental resources, are major pathways by which climate change leads to collective violence. Public health professionals can help prevent collective violence due to climate change (a) by supporting mitigation measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, (b) by promoting adaptation measures to address the consequences of climate change and to improve community resilience, and (c) by addressing underlying risk factors for collective violence, such as poverty and socioeconomic disparities.

  19. Climate variability and change

    CERN Document Server

    Grassl, H

    1998-01-01

    Many factors influence climate. The present knowledge concerning the climate relevance of earth orbital parameters, solar luminosity, volcanoes, internal interactions, and human activities will be reported as well as the vulnerability of emission scenarios for given stabilization goals for greenhouse gas concentrations and the main points of the Kyoto Protocol

  20. Changes in climate and changing climate regions in Slovakia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Labudová Lívia

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In the context of climate change, scientists discuss the relevant reference periods for the assessment of changes in climate. Recently, many studies have been published comparing recent conditions with the last reference period 1961–1990. In this paper, the trends of annual, seasonal and monthly average air temperature, as well as annual, seasonal and monthly precipitation totals in Slovakia, are presented to point out changes which will probably show up in the next reference period 1991–2020. In the second part of paper, changes in the climate regions in Slovakia are analysed, comparing spatial distributions in the period 1961–1990 and in the period 1961–2010.

  1. Ground Water and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Richard G.; Scanlon, Bridget; Doell, Petra; Rodell, Matt; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Longuevergne, Laurent; Leblanc, Marc; Famiglietti, James S.; Edmunds, Mike; hide

    2013-01-01

    As the world's largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the impacts of climate on ground water through natural and human-induced processes as well as through groundwater-driven feedbacks on the climate system. Furthermore, we examine the possible opportunities and challenges of using and sustaining groundwater resources in climate adaptation strategies, and highlight the lack of groundwater observations, which, at present, limits our understanding of the dynamic relationship between ground water and climate.

  2. Climate indices of Iran under climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    alireza kochaki

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Global warming will affect all climatic variables and particularly rainfall patterns. The purpose of present investigation was to predict climatic parameters of Iran under future climate change and to compare them with the present conditions. For this reason, UKMO General Circulation Model was used for the year 2025 and 2050. By running the model, minimum and maximum monthly temperature and also maximum monthly rainfall for the representative climate stations were calculated and finally the effects of climate change on these variables based on pre-determined scenarios was evaluated. The results showed that averaged over all stations, mean temperature increase for spring in the year 2025 and 2050 will be 3.1 and 3.9, for summer 3.8 and 4.7, for autumn 2.3 and 3 and for winter 2.0 and 2.4 ºC, respectively. This increase will be more pronounced from North to the South and from East to the West parts of the country. Mean decrease in autumn rainfall for the target years of 2025 and 2050 will be 8 and 11 percent, respectively. This decrease is negligible for summer months. Length of dry season for the years 2025 and 2050 will be increased, respectively up to 214 and 223 days due to combined effects of increased temperature and decreased rainfall.

  3. Climate change challenges for SEA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    This paper takes a theoretical perspective on the challenges that climate changes pose for SEA. The theoretical framework used is the sociologist Ulrich Beck’s theory of risk society and the aspects that characterise this society. Climate change is viewed as a risk, and the theory is used to derive...

  4. Teaching about Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heffron, Susan Gallagher; Valmond, Kharra

    2011-01-01

    Students are exposed to many different media reports about global climate change. Movies such as "The Day After Tomorrow" and "Ice Age" are examples of instances when movie producers have sought to capture the attention of audiences by augmenting the challenges that climate change poses. Students may receive information from a wide range of media…

  5. Abrupt change point detection of annual maximum precipitation using fused lasso

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeon, Jong-June; Sung, Jang Hyun; Chung, Eun-Sung

    2016-07-01

    Because the widely used Bayesian change point analysis (BCPA) is generally applied to the normal distribution, it cannot be freely used to the annual maximum precipitations (AMP) in South Korea. Therefore, this study proposed the fused lasso penalty function to detect the change point of AMP which can be generally fitted by using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution in South Korea. First, four numerical experiments are conducted to compare the detection performances between BCPA and fused lasso method. As a result, fused lasso shows the superiority of the data generated by GEV distribution having skewness. The fused lasso method is applied to 63 weather stations in South Korea and then 17 stations having any change points from BCPA and the GEV fused lasso are analyzed. Similar to the numerical analyses, the GEV fused lasso method can delicately detect the change point of AMPs. After the change point, the means of AMPs did not go back to the previous. Alternately, BCPA can be stated to find variation points not change points because the means returned to their original values as time progressed. Therefore, it can be concluded that the GEV fused lasso method detects the change points of non-stationary AMPs of South Korea. This study can be extended to more extreme distributions for various meteorological variables.

  6. Food security under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hertel, Thomas W.

    2016-01-01

    Using food prices to assess climate change impacts on food security is misleading. Differential impacts on income require a broader measure of household well-being, such as changes in absolute poverty.

  7. Malaria ecology and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCord, G. C.

    2016-05-01

    Understanding the costs that climate change will exact on society is crucial to devising an appropriate policy response. One of the channels through while climate change will affect human society is through vector-borne diseases whose epidemiology is conditioned by ambient ecology. This paper introduces the literature on malaria, its cost on society, and the consequences of climate change to the physics community in hopes of inspiring synergistic research in the area of climate change and health. It then demonstrates the use of one ecological indicator of malaria suitability to provide an order-of-magnitude assessment of how climate change might affect the malaria burden. The average of Global Circulation Model end-of-century predictions implies a 47% average increase in the basic reproduction number of the disease in today's malarious areas, significantly complicating malaria elimination efforts.

  8. Are Madrean ecosystems approaching tipping points? Anticipating interactions of landscape disturbance and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald A. Falk

    2013-01-01

    Contemporary climate change is driving transitions in many Madrean ecosystems, but the time scale of these changes is accelerated greatly by severe landscape disturbances such as wildfires and insect outbreaks. Landscape-scale disturbance events such as wildfires interact with prior disturbance patterns and landscape structure to catalyze abrupt transitions to novel...

  9. Abrupt deep-sea warming, palaeoceanographic changes and benthic extinctions at the end of the Palaeocene

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kennett, J.P.; Stott, L.D. (University of California, Santa Barbara, CA (USA). Marine Science Inst. Dept. of Geological Sciences)

    1991-09-19

    A remarkable oxygen and carbon isotope excursion occurred in Antarctic waters near the end of the Palaeocene ({approximately}57.33 Myr ago), indicating rapid global warming and oceanographic changes that caused one of the largest deep-sea benthic extinctions of the past 90 million years. In contrast, the oceanic plankton were largely unaffected, implying a decoupling of the deep and shallow ecosystems. The data suggest that for a few thousand years, ocean circulation underwent fundamental changes producing a transient state that, although brief, had long-term effects on environmental and biotic evolution. 56 refs., 2 figs.

  10. Climate change and marine life

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richardson, Anthony J.; Brown, Christopher J.; Brander, Keith

    2012-01-01

    A Marine Climate Impacts Workshop was held from 29 April to 3 May 2012 at the US National Center of Ecological Analysis and Synthesis in Santa Barbara. This workshop was the culmination of a series of six meetings over the past three years, which had brought together 25 experts in climate change...... ecology, analysis of large datasets, palaeontology, marine ecology and physical oceanography. Aims of these workshops were to produce a global synthesis of climate impacts on marine biota, to identify sensitive habitats and taxa, to inform the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC...

  11. Evaluating persistence and identifying trends and abrupt changes in monthly and annual rainfalls of a semi-arid region in Western India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machiwal, Deepesh; Jha, Madan Kumar

    2017-05-01

    In this study, 43-year (1965-2007) monthly and annual rainfall time series of ten rainfall stations in a semi-arid region of western India are analyzed by adopting three tests for testing normality and by applying autoregressive technique for exploring persistence. Gradual trends are identified by three tests, and their magnitudes are assessed by the Sen's slope estimator. Also, abrupt changes are detected by using four tests and they are further confirmed by two tests. Box-whisker plots revealed that the rainfalls of June and September are right skewed for all the stations. The annual rainfalls of Bhinder, Dhariawad, and Gogunda stations are found considerably right skewed. The normality tests indicated that the rainfall of July does not deviate from the normal distribution at all the stations. However, the annual rainfall is found non-normal at five stations. The monthly rainfalls of June, July, and August have persistence respectively at three (Mavli, Salumber, and Sarada), two (Kherwara and Sarada), and one (Mavli) stations, whereas the annual rainfall has persistence at Girwa and Mavli stations. Significantly increasing trend is detected at Mavli in the rainfall of July and in the annual rainfall ( p value > 0.05), while the negative trend in August rainfall at Dhariawad is found significant ( p value > 0.10). This study revealed that the presence of serial correlation does not affect the performance of the Mann-Kendall test. Mean values of trend magnitudes for the rainfalls of June, July, August, and September are 0.3, 0.8, -0.4, and 0.4 mm year-1, respectively, and the overall mean value for the annual rainfall is 0.9 mm year-1. It is found that the standard normal homogeneity test and the Pettitt test are biased towards the end of the series to locate a change point. Conversely, the Bayesian test has a tendency to look for a change point in the beginning of time series. Confirmed abrupt changes in the rainfall time series are found in the year 2003 (Bhinder

  12. Climate change experiments in Hamburg

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gubasch, U. [DKRZ, Hamburg (Germany)

    1995-12-31

    Nowadays the anthropogenic climate change is been simulated world wide with a fair number of coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models (IPCC, 1995). Typical model problems do not only blur the estimates of the anthropogenic climate change, but they also cause errors in the estimates of the natural variability. An accurate representation of the natural variability of the climate system is, however, essential for the detection of the anthropogenic climate change. All model simulations world wide show, even though they differ considerably in their technical details and the experimental setup and the forcing data, similar amplitudes and pattern of the predicted climate change. In the model world it is already at the beginning of the next century possible to detect the anthropogenic climate change in the global mean. If the model results are applied in a `fingerprint analysis`, then it is possible to prove that the climate change during the last 30 years is with a significance of 95 % larger than any other climate change during the last 100 years. The experiments performed in Hamburg show that the experimental conditions are of great importance for the estimate of the future climate. The usual starting point of most of the simulations with present day conditions (1980-1990) is too late, because then a considerable part of the warming since the beginning of the industrialization (ca. 1750) has been neglected. Furthermore it has only recently become clear that the sulphat-aerosols play an important role in the present day climate and in the future climate. The effect of the sulphat aerosols has first been simulated in a number of equilibrium simulations with mixed layer models, but nowadays with globally coupled ocean-atmosphere circulation models

  13. A possible abrupt change in summer precipitation over eastern China around 2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Yongjian; Song, Lianchun; Wang, Zunya; Xiao, Ying; Zhou, Bing

    2017-04-01

    Historical studies have shown that summer rainfall in eastern China undergoes decadal variations, with three apparent changes in the late 1970s, 1992, and the late 1990s. The present observational study indicates that summer precipitation over eastern China likely underwent a change in the late 2000s, during which the main spatial pattern changed from negative-positive-negative to positive-negative in the meridional direction. This change in summer precipitation over eastern China may have been associated with circulation anomalies in the middle/upper troposphere. A strong trough over Lake Baikal created a southward flow of cold air during 2009-15, compared with 1999-2008, while the westward recession of the western Pacific subtropical high strengthened the moisture transport to the north, creating conditions that were conducive for more rainfall in the north during this period. The phase shift of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in the late 2000s led to the Pacific-Japan-type teleconnection wave train shifting from negative to positive phases, resulting in varied summer precipitation over eastern China.

  14. Climate change and dead zones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altieri, Andrew H; Gedan, Keryn B

    2015-04-01

    Estuaries and coastal seas provide valuable ecosystem services but are particularly vulnerable to the co-occurring threats of climate change and oxygen-depleted dead zones. We analyzed the severity of climate change predicted for existing dead zones, and found that 94% of dead zones are in regions that will experience at least a 2 °C temperature increase by the end of the century. We then reviewed how climate change will exacerbate hypoxic conditions through oceanographic, ecological, and physiological processes. We found evidence that suggests numerous climate variables including temperature, ocean acidification, sea-level rise, precipitation, wind, and storm patterns will affect dead zones, and that each of those factors has the potential to act through multiple pathways on both oxygen availability and ecological responses to hypoxia. Given the variety and strength of the mechanisms by which climate change exacerbates hypoxia, and the rates at which climate is changing, we posit that climate change variables are contributing to the dead zone epidemic by acting synergistically with one another and with recognized anthropogenic triggers of hypoxia including eutrophication. This suggests that a multidisciplinary, integrated approach that considers the full range of climate variables is needed to track and potentially reverse the spread of dead zones. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Forest disturbances under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seidl, Rupert; Thom, Dominik; Kautz, Markus; Martin-Benito, Dario; Peltoniemi, Mikko; Vacchiano, Giorgio; Wild, Jan; Ascoli, Davide; Petr, Michal; Honkaniemi, Juha; Lexer, Manfred J.; Trotsiuk, Volodymyr; Mairota, Paola; Svoboda, Miroslav; Fabrika, Marek; Nagel, Thomas A.; Reyer, Christopher P. O.

    2017-06-01

    Forest disturbances are sensitive to climate. However, our understanding of disturbance dynamics in response to climatic changes remains incomplete, particularly regarding large-scale patterns, interaction effects and dampening feedbacks. Here we provide a global synthesis of climate change effects on important abiotic (fire, drought, wind, snow and ice) and biotic (insects and pathogens) disturbance agents. Warmer and drier conditions particularly facilitate fire, drought and insect disturbances, while warmer and wetter conditions increase disturbances from wind and pathogens. Widespread interactions between agents are likely to amplify disturbances, while indirect climate effects such as vegetation changes can dampen long-term disturbance sensitivities to climate. Future changes in disturbance are likely to be most pronounced in coniferous forests and the boreal biome. We conclude that both ecosystems and society should be prepared for an increasingly disturbed future of forests.

  16. Forest disturbances under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seidl, Rupert; Thom, Dominik; Kautz, Markus; Martin-Benito, Dario; Peltoniemi, Mikko; Vacchiano, Giorgio; Wild, Jan; Ascoli, Davide; Petr, Michal; Honkaniemi, Juha; Lexer, Manfred J.; Trotsiuk, Volodymyr; Mairota, Paola; Svoboda, Miroslav; Fabrika, Marek; Nagel, Thomas A.; Reyer, Christopher P. O.

    2017-01-01

    Forest disturbances are sensitive to climate. However, our understanding of disturbance dynamics in response to climatic changes remains incomplete, particularly regarding large-scale patterns, interaction effects and dampening feedbacks. Here we provide a global synthesis of climate change effects on important abiotic (fire, drought, wind, snow and ice) and biotic (insects and pathogens) disturbance agents. Warmer and drier conditions particularly facilitate fire, drought and insect disturbances, while warmer and wetter conditions increase disturbances from wind and pathogens. Widespread interactions between agents are likely to amplify disturbances, while indirect climate effects such as vegetation changes can dampen long-term disturbance sensitivities to climate. Future changes in disturbance are likely to be most pronounced in coniferous forests and the boreal biome. We conclude that both ecosystems and society should be prepared for an increasingly disturbed future of forests. PMID:28861124

  17. Adapting agriculture to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howden, S Mark; Soussana, Jean-François; Tubiello, Francesco N; Chhetri, Netra; Dunlop, Michael; Meinke, Holger

    2007-12-11

    The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of existing agricultural systems, often variations of existing climate risk management. We show that implementation of these options is likely to have substantial benefits under moderate climate change for some cropping systems. However, there are limits to their effectiveness under more severe climate changes. Hence, more systemic changes in resource allocation need to be considered, such as targeted diversification of production systems and livelihoods. We argue that achieving increased adaptation action will necessitate integration of climate change-related issues with other risk factors, such as climate variability and market risk, and with other policy domains, such as sustainable development. Dealing with the many barriers to effective adaptation will require a comprehensive and dynamic policy approach covering a range of scales and issues, for example, from the understanding by farmers of change in risk profiles to the establishment of efficient markets that facilitate response strategies. Science, too, has to adapt. Multidisciplinary problems require multidisciplinary solutions, i.e., a focus on integrated rather than disciplinary science and a strengthening of the interface with decision makers. A crucial component of this approach is the implementation of adaptation assessment frameworks that are relevant, robust, and easily operated by all stakeholders, practitioners, policymakers, and scientists.

  18. Our Changing Planet: The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for Fiscal Year 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-10-01

    to continue the collection of global Landsat data. Without these satellite observations, the current pace of discovery and innovation in global land...Robitaille, A. Sokolov, G. Vettoretti, and S.L. Weber, 2006: Investigating the causes of the response of the thermohaline circulation to past and future...likelihood of abrupt changes in the climate system such as the collapse of the ocean thermohaline circulation, inception of a decades-long mega-drought, or

  19. Volcanic activity and climatic changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryson, R A; Goodman, B M

    1980-03-07

    Radiocarbon dates of volcanic activity suggest variations that appear to be related to climatic changes. Historical eruption records also show variations on the scale of years to centuries. These records can be combined with simple climatic models to estimate the impact of various volcanic activity levels. From this analysis it appears that climatic prediction in the range of 2 years to many decades requires broad-scale volcanic activity prediction. Statistical analysis of the volcanic record suggests that some predictability is possible.

  20. Vegetation zones in changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belda, Michal; Holtanova, Eva; Halenka, Tomas; Kalvova, Jaroslava

    2017-04-01

    Climate patterns analysis can be performed for individual climate variables separately or the data can be aggregated using e.g. some kind of climate classification. These classifications usually correspond to vegetation distribution in the sense that each climate type is dominated by one vegetation zone or eco-region. Thus, the Köppen-Trewartha classification provides integrated assessment of temperature and precipitation together with their annual cycle as well. This way climate classifications also can be used as a convenient tool for the assessment and validation of climate models and for the analysis of simulated future climate changes. The Köppen-Trewartha classification is applied on full CMIP5 family of more than 40 GCM simulations and CRU dataset for comparison. This evaluation provides insight on the GCM performance and errors for simulations of the 20th century climate. Common regions are identified, such as Australia or Amazonia, where many state-of-the-art models perform inadequately. Moreover, the analysis of the CMIP5 ensemble for future under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 is performed to assess the climate change for future. There are significant changes for some types in most models e.g. increase of savanna and decrease of tundra for the future climate. For some types significant shifts in latitude can be seen when studying their geographical location in selected continental areas, e.g. toward higher latitudes for boreal climate. Quite significant uncertainty can be seen for some types. For Europe, EuroCORDEX results for both 0.11 and 0.44 degree resolution are validated using Köppen-Trewartha types in comparison to E-OBS based classification. ERA-Interim driven simulations are compared to both present conditions of CMIP5 models as well as their downscaling by EuroCORDEX RCMs. Finally, the climate change signal assessment is provided using the individual climate types. In addition to the changes assessed similarly as for GCMs analysis in terms of the area

  1. Learned vocal variation is associated with abrupt cryptic genetic change in a parrot species complex.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raoul F H Ribot

    Full Text Available Contact zones between subspecies or closely related species offer valuable insights into speciation processes. A typical feature of such zones is the presence of clinal variation in multiple traits. The nature of these traits and the concordance among clines are expected to influence whether and how quickly speciation will proceed. Learned signals, such as vocalizations in species having vocal learning (e.g. humans, many birds, bats and cetaceans, can exhibit rapid change and may accelerate reproductive isolation between populations. Therefore, particularly strong concordance among clines in learned signals and population genetic structure may be expected, even among continuous populations in the early stages of speciation. However, empirical evidence for this pattern is often limited because differences in vocalisations between populations are driven by habitat differences or have evolved in allopatry. We tested for this pattern in a unique system where we may be able to separate effects of habitat and evolutionary history. We studied geographic variation in the vocalizations of the crimson rosella (Platycercus elegans parrot species complex. Parrots are well known for their life-long vocal learning and cognitive abilities. We analysed contact calls across a ca 1300 km transect encompassing populations that differed in neutral genetic markers and plumage colour. We found steep clinal changes in two acoustic variables (fundamental frequency and peak frequency position. The positions of the two clines in vocal traits were concordant with a steep cline in microsatellite-based genetic variation, but were discordant with the steep clines in mtDNA, plumage and habitat. Our study provides new evidence that vocal variation, in a species with vocal learning, can coincide with areas of restricted gene flow across geographically continuous populations. Our results suggest that traits that evolve culturally can be strongly associated with reduced gene flow

  2. Diverse views on climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrett, Timothy; Dubey, Manvendra; Schwartz, Stephen

    2012-04-01

    Third Santa Fe Conference on Global and Regional Climate Change; Santa Fe, New Mexico, 30 October to 4 November 2011 At the Third Santa Fe Conference on Global and Regional Climate Change, hosted by the Los Alamos National Laboratory's Center for Nonlinear Studies, researchers offered some of the latest thinking on how to observe and model the driving forces as well as the impacts of regional and global climate change, climate system responses, and societal impacts. It was the third in a series of conferences held at 5-year intervals. More than 140 climate science experts from the United States and foreign universities and research centers attended the conference, held at the La Fonda Hotel in historic downtown Santa Fe. The conference program included more than 80 invited and contributed oral presentations and about 30 posters. The oral sessions were grouped by topic into sessions of four or five talks, with discussion occurring at the end of each session

  3. Climate Change, Fuels, and Wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-11-29

    Climate Change , Fuels, and Wildfire November 29, 2011 Partners in Environmental Technology Technical Symposium & Workshop SERDP|ESTCP Anthony...NOV 2011 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2011 to 00-00-2011 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Climate Change , Fuels, and Wildfire 5a. CONTRACT...drivers of fire activity in very diverse ecosystems in California and the Northern Rockies, and summarize how climate change may affect these. In order to

  4. Climatic change; Le Changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perthuis, Ch. de [Universite de Paris-Dauphine, 75 - Paris (France); Caisse des depots, Mission climat, 75 - Paris (France); Delbosc, A. [Caisse des depots, Mission climat, 75 - Paris (France)

    2009-07-01

    Received ideas about climatic change are a mixture of right and wrong information. The authors use these ideas as starting points to shade light on what we really know and what we believe to know. The book is divided in three main chapters: should we act in front of climatic change? How can we efficiently act? How can we equitably act? For each chapter a series of received ideas is analyzed in order to find those which can usefully contribute to mitigate the environmental, economical and social impacts of climatic change. (J.S.)

  5. Inhalation anaesthetics and climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Mads Peter Sulbæk; Sander, S P; Nielsen, O J

    2010-01-01

    Although the increasing abundance of CO(2) in our atmosphere is the main driver of the observed climate change, it is the cumulative effect of all forcing agents that dictate the direction and magnitude of the change, and many smaller contributors are also at play. Isoflurane, desflurane, and sev......Although the increasing abundance of CO(2) in our atmosphere is the main driver of the observed climate change, it is the cumulative effect of all forcing agents that dictate the direction and magnitude of the change, and many smaller contributors are also at play. Isoflurane, desflurane......, and sevoflurane are widely used inhalation anaesthetics. Emissions of these compounds contribute to radiative forcing of climate change. To quantitatively assess the impact of the anaesthetics on the forcing of climate, detailed information on their properties of heat (infrared, IR) absorption and atmospheric...

  6. Climate change, wine, and conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannah, Lee; Roehrdanz, Patrick R; Ikegami, Makihiko; Shepard, Anderson V; Shaw, M Rebecca; Tabor, Gary; Zhi, Lu; Marquet, Pablo A; Hijmans, Robert J

    2013-04-23

    Climate change is expected to impact ecosystems directly, such as through shifting climatic controls on species ranges, and indirectly, for example through changes in human land use that may result in habitat loss. Shifting patterns of agricultural production in response to climate change have received little attention as a potential impact pathway for ecosystems. Wine grape production provides a good test case for measuring indirect impacts mediated by changes in agriculture, because viticulture is sensitive to climate and is concentrated in Mediterranean climate regions that are global biodiversity hotspots. Here we demonstrate that, on a global scale, the impacts of climate change on viticultural suitability are substantial, leading to possible conservation conflicts in land use and freshwater ecosystems. Area suitable for viticulture decreases 25% to 73% in major wine producing regions by 2050 in the higher RCP 8.5 concentration pathway and 19% to 62% in the lower RCP 4.5. Climate change may cause establishment of vineyards at higher elevations that will increase impacts on upland ecosystems and may lead to conversion of natural vegetation as production shifts to higher latitudes in areas such as western North America. Attempts to maintain wine grape productivity and quality in the face of warming may be associated with increased water use for irrigation and to cool grapes through misting or sprinkling, creating potential for freshwater conservation impacts. Agricultural adaptation and conservation efforts are needed that anticipate these multiple possible indirect effects.

  7. Ground water and climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Taylor, R.G.; Scanlon, B.; Döll, P.; Rodell, M.; Beek, R. van; Wada, Y.; Longuevergne, L.; Leblanc, M.; Famiglietti, J.S.; Edmunds, M.; Konikow, L.; Green, T.R.; Chen, J.; Taniguchi, M.; Bierkens, M.F.P.; MacDonald, A.; Fan, Y.; Maxwell, R.M.; Yechieli, Y.; Gurdak, J.J.; Allen, D.M.; Shamsudduha, M.; Hiscock, K.; Yeh, Pat J.-F.; Holman, Ian; Treidel, Holger

    2012-01-01

    As the world’s largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate

  8. Securitisation of climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Warner, Jeroen; Boas, Ingrid

    2017-01-01

    The present contribution focuses on the 'selling' of the 'climate crisis' to intended key audiences, both in the international domain and at home. We look into the mechanics of crisis framing, the audience, and the resonance that the frame had, as well as development over time in two cases: the UK

  9. Climate Change and Conceptual Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, David J.

    2013-01-01

    Global Warming ("GW") is easily one of the most pressing concerns of our time, and its solution will come about only through a change in human behavior. Compared to the residents of most other nations worldwide, Americans report lower acceptance of the realities of GW. In order to address this concern in a free society, U.S. residents…

  10. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models....... enables the relative importance of the different factors (i.e. degree of climate change, assets value, discount rate etc.) to be determined, thus influencing the overall output of the assessment.......Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...

  11. A Review of the Detection Methods for Climate Regime Shifts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qunqun Liu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available An abrupt climate change means that the climate system shifts from a steady state to another steady state. Study on the phenomenon and theory of the abrupt climate change is a new research field of modern climatology, and it is of great significance for the prediction of future climate change. The climate regime shift is one of the most common forms of abrupt climate change, which mainly refers to the statistical significant changes on the variable of climate system at one time scale. These detection methods can be roughly divided into five categories based on different types of abrupt changes, namely, abrupt mean value change, abrupt variance change, abrupt frequency change, abrupt probability density change, and the multivariable analysis. The main research progress of abrupt climate change detection methods is reviewed. What is more, some actual applications of those methods in observational data are provided. With the development of nonlinear science, many new methods have been presented for detecting an abrupt dynamic change in recent years, which is useful supplement for the abrupt change detection methods.

  12. Rapid climate change: lessons from the recent geological past

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, Jonathan; Lowe, John; Wolff, Eric; Srokosz, Meric

    2011-12-01

    Rapid, or abrupt, climate change is regarded as a change in the climate system to a new state following the crossing of a threshold. It generally occurs at a rate exceeding that of the change in the underlying cause. Episodes of rapid climate change abound in the recent geological past (defined here as the interval between the last glacial maximum, dated to approximately 20,000 years ago, and the present). Rapid climate changes are known to have occurred over time periods equal to or even less than a human lifespan: moreover, their effects on the global system are sufficiently large to have had significant societal impacts. The potential for similar events to occur in the future provides an important impetus for investigating the nature and causes of rapid climate change. This paper provides a brief overview of rapid climate change and an introduction to this special issue, which presents results generated by the palaeoclimatic component of the UK Natural Environment Research Council's rapid climate change programme, called RAPID. The papers in the special issue employ palaeoclimatic proxy data-sets obtained from marine, ice core and terrestrial archives to reconstruct rapid climate change during the last glacial cycle, its subsequent termination and the ensuing Holocene interglacial; some papers also report new attempts to match the palaeoclimate data to hypothesised causes through numerical modelling. The results confirm the importance of freshwater forcing in triggering changes in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) and the close links between MOC and rapid climate change. While advancing our understanding of these linkages, the RAPID research has highlighted the need for further research in order to elucidate more specific details of the mechanisms involved.

  13. Psychology: Climate change hits home

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Elke U.

    2011-04-01

    Engaging the public with climate change has proved difficult, in part because they see the problem as remote. New evidence suggests that direct experience of one anticipated impact -- flooding -- increases people's concern and willingness to save energy.

  14. Climate Change Negotiations Unscrambling Acronyms

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    1992: UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Rio. Common but differentiated responsibility (Annex I vs. non-Annex 1); Industrialized countries to bear full incremental costs of adjustment by developing countries ...

  15. Welfare impacts of climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hof, Andries F.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change can affect well-being in poor economies more than previously shown if its effect on economic growth, and not only on current production, is considered. But this result does not necessarily suggest greater mitigation efforts are required.

  16. Climate change and group dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postmes, Tom

    2015-01-01

    The characteristics and views of people sceptical about climate change have been analysed extensively. A study now confirms that sceptics in the US have some characteristics of a social movement, but shows that the same group dynamics propel believers

  17. Making Sense of Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blichfeldt, Nikolaj Vendelbo

    The thesis is an ethnographic description of a climate change mitigation campaign among retirees in the urban residential community Dongping Lane in central Hangzhou, and an examination of local understandings of connections between everyday life in the community and global climate change......, as a point of departure for an examination of what happens when a requirement to save energy and resources, as a response to global climate change, encounters local ways of knowing the world. Developed through meetings, workshops, competitions and the promotion of exemplary individuals, the campaign...... is conceived as part of wider state-sponsored efforts to foster civilized behavior and a sense of belonging to the residential community among urban citizens in China. The campaigners connect unspectacular everyday consumer practices with climate change and citizenship by showing that among them, making...

  18. VTrans climate change action plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-06-01

    VTrans is working closely with other state agencies, including the Agency of Natural Resources (ANR) to review and implement the transportation-related recommendations from the 2007 Governors Commission on Climate Change (GCCC) final report. The r...

  19. Climate Change Science Program Collection

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) Collection consists of publications and other resources produced between 2007 and 2009 by the CCSP with the intention of...

  20. Social protection and climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johnson, Craig; Bansha Dulal, Hari; Prowse, Martin Philip

    2013-01-01

    This article lays the foundation for this special issue on social protection and climate change, introducing and evaluating the ways in which the individual articles contribute to our understanding of the subject.......This article lays the foundation for this special issue on social protection and climate change, introducing and evaluating the ways in which the individual articles contribute to our understanding of the subject....

  1. Public price of climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Kutasi, Gábor

    2013-01-01

    Aim of the paper: The purpose is to gather the practices and to model the impacts of climate change on fiscal spending and revenues, responsibilities and opportunities, balance and debt related to climate change (CC). Methodology of the paper: The methodology will distinguish fiscal cost of mitigation and adaptation, besides direct and indirect costs. It will also introduce cost benefit analyses to evaluate the propensity of policy makers for action or passivity. Several scenarios will be...

  2. Coping with climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zheng, Yuan; Byg, Anja

    2014-01-01

    found across villages regarding the degree of perceived sensitivity and responses despite similar exposure to climate extremes. These differences are partly related to the nature of events and varied socio-economic characteristics of households, which influence their vulnerability and ability to cope....... The study suggests initiatives which could facilitate coping. In addition to providing disaster relief and strengthening technical coping capacity, more efforts could be directed at spreading risk and revitalising livelihoods....

  3. Monitoring channel head erosion processes in response to an artificially induced abrupt base level change using time-lapse photography 2301

    Science.gov (United States)

    Headcut and channel extension in response to an abrupt base level change in 2004 of approximately 1m was studied in a 1.29 ha semiarid headwater drainage on the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW) in southeastern Arizona, USA. Field observations and time-lapse photography were coupled with hy...

  4. Update on global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Carol J

    2010-01-01

    Global climate change brings new challenges to the control of infectious diseases. Since many waterborne and vector-borne pathogens are highly sensitive to temperature and rainfall, health risks resulting from a warming and more variable climate are potentially huge. Global climate change involves the entire world, but the poorest countries will suffer the most. Nations are coming together to address what can be done to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and cope with inevitable temperature increases. A key component of any comprehensive mitigation and adaptation plan is a strong public health infrastructure across the world. Nothing less than global public health security is at stake.

  5. CLIMATE CHANGES: CAUSES AND IMPACT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camelia Slave

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Present brings several environmental problems for people. Many of these are closely related, but by far the most important problem is the climate change. In the course of Earth evolution, climate has changed many times, sometimes dramatically. Warmer eras always replaced and were in turn replaced by glacial ones. However, the climate of the past almost ten thousand years has been very stable. During this period human civilization has also developed. In the past nearly 100 years - since the beginning of industrialization - the global average temperature has increased by approx. 0.6 ° C (after IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, faster than at any time in the last 1000 years.

  6. Climate change and preventive medicine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faergeman, Ole

    2007-01-01

    disease do not result from climate change, but they do share causes with climate change. Burning fossil fuels, for example, is the major source of greenhouse gases, but it also makes pervasive physical inactivity possible. Similarly, modern agriculture's enormous production of livestock contributes...... substantially to greenhouse gas emissions, and it is the source of many of our most energy-rich foods. Physicians and societies of medical professionals have a particular responsibility, therefore, to contribute to the public discourse about climate change and what to do about it. Udgivelsesdato: 2007-Dec......Thermal stress, food poisoning, infectious diseases, malnutrition, psychiatric illness as well as injury and death from floods, storms and fire are all likely to become more common as the earth warms and the climate becomes more variable. In contrast, obesity, type II diabetes and coronary artery...

  7. Deliberating Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Agger, Annika; Jelsøe, Erling; Jæger, Birgit

    The global event World Wide Views on Global Warming (WWV), initiated by the Danish Board of Technology (DBT), took place on September 26, 2009, and was an innovative attempt to gather a united citizen voice on a global scale. As such the WWV is one of the most recent experiments with new ways...... to include the voice of the citizens into complex scientific and technological issues. The purpose of WWV was to pass on the opinions of ordinary citizens to political decision-makers at The United Nations Climate Summit, COP15, in Copenhagen in December 2009. The authors made a study of the Danish WWV event...

  8. Climate Change Mitigation: Can the U.S. Intelligence Community Help?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-01

    possibility serves to highlight the complexity of the problem posed by enlisting the IC into such a fragile international diplomatic ecosystem . As...400 Bobbitt, Terror and Consent, 349. 214 provoked by any analogous abrupt changes in the climate.401 Homeland security entrepreneurs are...uniquely qualified to understand the vulnerabilities of all networks. Homeland security entrepreneurs must remain keenly aware of both obvious and

  9. Late Quaternary changes in climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holmgren, K.; Karlen, W. [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Physical Geography

    1998-12-01

    This review concerns the Quaternary climate with an emphasis on the last 200 000 years. The present state of art in this field is described and evaluated. The review builds on a thorough examination of classic and recent literature. General as well as detailed patterns in climate are described and the forcing factors and feed-back effects are discussed. Changes in climate occur on all time-scales. During more than 90% of the Quaternary period earth has experienced vast ice sheets, i.e. glaciations have been more normal for the period than the warm interglacial conditions we face today. Major changes in climate, such as the 100 000 years glacial/interglacial cycle, are forced by the Milankovitch three astronomical cycles. Because the cycles have different length climate changes on earth do not follow a simple pattern and it is not possible to find perfect analogues of a certain period in the geological record. Recent discoveries include the observation that major changes in climate seem to occur at the same time on both hemispheres, although the astronomical theory implies a time-lag between latitudes. This probably reflects the influence of feed-back effects within the climate system. Another recent finding of importance is the rapid fluctuations that seem to be a normal process. When earth warmed after the last glaciation temperature jumps of up to 10 deg C occurred within less than a decade and precipitation more than doubled within the same time. The forcing factors behind these rapid fluctuations are not well understood but are believed to be a result of major re-organisations in the oceanic circulation. Realizing that nature, on its own, can cause rapid climate changes of this magnitude put some perspective on the anthropogenic global warming debate, where it is believed that the release of greenhouse gases will result in a global warming of a few C. To understand the forcing behind natural rapid climate changes appears as important as to understand the role

  10. Rapid climate change did not cause population collapse at the end of the European Bronze Age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armit, Ian; Swindles, Graeme T; Becker, Katharina; Plunkett, Gill; Blaauw, Maarten

    2014-12-02

    The impact of rapid climate change on contemporary human populations is of global concern. To contextualize our understanding of human responses to rapid climate change it is necessary to examine the archeological record during past climate transitions. One episode of abrupt climate change has been correlated with societal collapse at the end of the northwestern European Bronze Age. We apply new methods to interrogate archeological and paleoclimate data for this transition in Ireland at a higher level of precision than has previously been possible. We analyze archeological (14)C dates to demonstrate dramatic population collapse and present high-precision proxy climate data, analyzed through Bayesian methods, to provide evidence for a rapid climatic transition at ca. 750 calibrated years B.C. Our results demonstrate that this climatic downturn did not initiate population collapse and highlight the nondeterministic nature of human responses to past climate change.

  11. Biodiversity redistribution under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pecl, Gretta T.; Bastos, Miguel; Bell, Johann D.

    2017-01-01

    Distributions of Earth’s species are changing at accelerating rates, increasingly driven by humanmediated climate change. Such changes are already altering the composition of ecological communities, but beyond conservation of natural systems, how and why does this matter? We review evidence...... that climate-driven species redistribution at regional to global scales affects ecosystem functioning, human well-being, and the dynamics of climate change itself. Production of natural resources required for food security, patterns of disease transmission, and processes of carbon sequestration are all altered...... by changes in species distribution. Consideration of these effects of biodiversity redistribution is critical yet lacking in most mitigation and adaptation strategies, including the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals....

  12. Climate change. Accelerating extinction risk from climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urban, Mark C

    2015-05-01

    Current predictions of extinction risks from climate change vary widely depending on the specific assumptions and geographic and taxonomic focus of each study. I synthesized published studies in order to estimate a global mean extinction rate and determine which factors contribute the greatest uncertainty to climate change-induced extinction risks. Results suggest that extinction risks will accelerate with future global temperatures, threatening up to one in six species under current policies. Extinction risks were highest in South America, Australia, and New Zealand, and risks did not vary by taxonomic group. Realistic assumptions about extinction debt and dispersal capacity substantially increased extinction risks. We urgently need to adopt strategies that limit further climate change if we are to avoid an acceleration of global extinctions. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  13. Indigenous health and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, James D

    2012-07-01

    Indigenous populations have been identified as vulnerable to climate change. This framing, however, is detached from the diverse geographies of how people experience, understand, and respond to climate-related health outcomes, and overlooks nonclimatic determinants. I reviewed research on indigenous health and climate change to capture place-based dimensions of vulnerability and broader determining factors. Studies focused primarily on Australia and the Arctic, and indicated significant adaptive capacity, with active responses to climate-related health risks. However, nonclimatic stresses including poverty, land dispossession, globalization, and associated sociocultural transitions challenge this adaptability. Addressing geographic gaps in existing studies alongside greater focus on indigenous conceptualizations on and approaches to health, examination of global-local interactions shaping local vulnerability, enhanced surveillance, and an evaluation of policy support opportunities are key foci for future research.

  14. Climate change impacts and adaptations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Tarp, Finn

    2015-01-01

    , the inseparability of the development and climate agendas, and the rate of assimilation of climate and development information in key institutions. They are drawn from the Development Under Climate Change (DUCC) project carried out by UNU-WIDER of which the countries of the Greater Zambeze Valley formed a part......In this article, we assert that developing countries are much better prepared to undertake negotiations at the Conference of the Parties in Paris (CoP21) as compared to CoP15 in Copenhagen. An important element of this is the accumulation of knowledge with respect to the implications of climate...... change and the ongoing internalization thereof by key institutions in developing countries. The articles in this special issue set forth a set of technical contributions to this improved understanding. We also summarize five major lessons related to uncertainty, extreme events, timing of impacts...

  15. Climate change adaptation in Ethiopia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weldegebriel, Zerihun Berhane; Prowse, Martin

    Ethiopia is vulnerable to climate change due to its limited development and dependence on agriculture. Social protection schemes like the Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) can play a positive role in promoting livelihoods and enhancing households’ risk management. This article examines......, they suggest the PSNP may not be helping smallholders diversify income sources in a positive manner for climate adaptation. The article concludes by arguing for further investigation of the PSNP’s influence on smallholders’ adaptation strategies....

  16. Pregnancy Complications: Placental Abruption

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... belly is harmed from a car accident or physical abuse . If you've had a placental abruption before, ... belly is harmed from a car accident or physical abuse . If you've had a placental abruption before, ...

  17. Climate Change: Meeting the Challenge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chance, Paul; Heward, William L.

    2010-01-01

    In "Climate Change: Meeting the Challenge," we conclude the special section by assuming that you have been persuaded by Thompson's paper or other evidence that global warming is real and poses a threat that must be dealt with, and that for now the only way to deal with it is by changing behavior. Then we ask what you, as behavior analysts, can do…

  18. Climate Change and Fish Availability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teng, Paul P. S.; Lassa, Jonatan; Caballero-Anthony, Mely

    Human consumption of fish has been trending upwards in the past decades and this is projected to continue. The main sources of fish are from wild fisheries (marine and freshwater) and aquaculture. Climate change is anticipated to affect the availability of fish through its effect on these two sources as well as on supply chain processes such as storage, transport, processing and retail. Climate change is known to result in warmer and more acid oceans. Ocean acidification due to higher CO2 concentration levels at sea modifies the distribution of phytoplankton and zooplankton to affect wild, capture fisheries. Higher temperature causes warm-water coral reefs to respond with species replacement and bleaching, leading to coral cover loss and habitat loss. Global changes in climatic systems may also cause fish invasion, extinction and turnover. While this may be catastrophic for small scale fish farming in poor tropical communities, there are also potential effects on animal protein supply shifts at local and global scales with food security consequences. This paper discusses the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and aquaculture in the Asian Pacific region, with special emphasis on Southeast Asia. The key question to be addressed is “What are the impacts of global climate change on global fish harvests and what does it mean to the availability of fish?”

  19. Climate change and respiratory health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerardi, Daniel A; Kellerman, Roy A

    2014-10-01

    To discuss the nature of climate change and both its immediate and long-term effects on human respiratory health. This review is based on information from a presentation of the American College of Chest Physicians course on Occupational and Environmental Lung Disease held in Toronto, Canada, June 2013. It is supplemented by a PubMed search for climate change, global warming, respiratory tract diseases, and respiratory health. It is also supplemented by a search of Web sites including the Environmental Protection Agency, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, World Meteorological Association, National Snow and Ice Data Center, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change, and the World Health Organization. Health effects of climate change include an increase in the prevalence of certain respiratory diseases, exacerbations of chronic lung disease, premature mortality, allergic responses, and declines in lung function. Climate change, mediated by greenhouse gases, causes adverse health effects to the most vulnerable patient populations-the elderly, children, and those in distressed socioeconomic strata.

  20. Western water and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, Michael; Udall, Bradley; Georgakakos, Aris

    2015-12-01

    The western United States is a region long defined by water challenges. Climate change adds to those historical challenges, but does not, for the most part, introduce entirely new challenges; rather climate change is likely to stress water supplies and resources already in many cases stretched to, or beyond, natural limits. Projections are for continued and, likely, increased warming trends across the region, with a near certainty of continuing changes in seasonality of snowmelt and streamflows, and a strong potential for attendant increases in evaporative demands. Projections of future precipitation are less conclusive, although likely the northern-most West will see precipitation increases while the southernmost West sees declines. However, most of the region lies in a broad area where some climate models project precipitation increases while others project declines, so that only increases in precipitation uncertainties can be projected with any confidence. Changes in annual and seasonal hydrographs are likely to challenge water managers, users, and attempts to protect or restore environmental flows, even where annual volumes change little. Other impacts from climate change (e.g., floods and water-quality changes) are poorly understood and will likely be location dependent. In this context, four iconic river basins offer glimpses into specific challenges that climate change may bring to the West. The Colorado River is a system in which overuse and growing demands are projected to be even more challenging than climate-change-induced flow reductions. The Rio Grande offers the best example of how climate-change-induced flow declines might sink a major system into permanent drought. The Klamath is currently projected to face the more benign precipitation future, but fisheries and irrigation management may face dire straits due to warming air temperatures, rising irrigation demands, and warming waters in a basin already hobbled by tensions between endangered fisheries

  1. Western water and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, Michael; Udall, Bradley; Georgakakos, Aris P.

    2015-01-01

    The western United States is a region long defined by water challenges. Climate change adds to those historical challenges, but does not, for the most part, introduce entirely new challenges; rather climate change is likely to stress water supplies and resources already in many cases stretched to, or beyond, natural limits. Projections are for continued and, likely, increased warming trends across the region, with a near certainty of continuing changes in seasonality of snowmelt and streamflows, and a strong potential for attendant increases in evaporative demands. Projections of future precipitation are less conclusive, although likely the northernmost West will see precipitation increases while the southernmost West sees declines. However, most of the region lies in a broad area where some climate models project precipitation increases while others project declines, so that only increases in precipitation uncertainties can be projected with any confidence. Changes in annual and seasonal hydrographs are likely to challenge water managers, users, and attempts to protect or restore environmental flows, even where annual volumes change little. Other impacts from climate change (e.g., floods and water-quality changes) are poorly understood and will likely be location dependent.

  2. Role of scale interactions in the abrupt change of tropical cyclone in autumn over the Western North Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Pang-Chi; Lee, Ting-Hui; Tsou, Chih-Hua; Chu, Pao-Shin; Qian, Yitian; Bi, Mingyu

    2017-01-01

    Tropical cyclone (TC) activity in autumn (September-November) over the western North Pacific experienced an abrupt change in 1998, which can be detected by the Bayesian change-point analysis. During the decade before the regime shift (1988-1997), the occurrence frequency of TC genesis increased significantly over the tropical western Pacific, where the seasonal cyclonic flow, intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) and synoptic-scale eddy (SSE) were all strengthened, compared to those observed in the decade after 1998 (1998-2007). The TC trajectories also exhibited spatial differences. During the active decade, the TCs had a higher probability to move westward into the Philippine Sea and the South China Sea, and recurved northeastward toward the east of Japan. Meanwhile, the northwestward propagating TCs approaching Taiwan and southeastern coast of China were reduced. To understand the role of mean flow-ISO-SSE interaction in the decadal changes of SSE and associated TC activity, we diagnosed a newly proposed SSE kinetic energy (KE) equation that separates the contributions of seasonal-mean circulation and ISO to the SSE. The results show that, during the active TC decade, the SSE obtained higher KE from both mean flow and ISO through eddy barotropic energy conversion when the enhanced SSE momentum flux interacted with the strengthened monsoon trough and vigorous ISO cyclonic anomaly over the western tropical Pacific. The increased SSE KE contributed positively to the increased TC genesis over the main genesis region (7.5°-20°N, 130°-170°E). It also benefited the growth of TCs over the Philippine Sea and the South China Sea during the active decade. The decadal change in TC frequency over the extratropics was related to the eddy baroclinic energy conversion instead of the barotropic conversion associated with scale interaction. During the active TC decade, SSE gained more (less) KE from the SSE available potential energy over the east of Japan (the East China Sea

  3. Role of scale interactions in the abrupt change of tropical cyclone in autumn over the Western North Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Pang-Chi; Lee, Ting-Hui; Tsou, Chih-Hua; Chu, Pao-Shin; Qian, Yitian; Bi, Mingyu

    2017-11-01

    Tropical cyclone (TC) activity in autumn (September-November) over the western North Pacific experienced an abrupt change in 1998, which can be detected by the Bayesian change-point analysis. During the decade before the regime shift (1988-1997), the occurrence frequency of TC genesis increased significantly over the tropical western Pacific, where the seasonal cyclonic flow, intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) and synoptic-scale eddy (SSE) were all strengthened, compared to those observed in the decade after 1998 (1998-2007). The TC trajectories also exhibited spatial differences. During the active decade, the TCs had a higher probability to move westward into the Philippine Sea and the South China Sea, and recurved northeastward toward the east of Japan. Meanwhile, the northwestward propagating TCs approaching Taiwan and southeastern coast of China were reduced. To understand the role of mean flow-ISO-SSE interaction in the decadal changes of SSE and associated TC activity, we diagnosed a newly proposed SSE kinetic energy (KE) equation that separates the contributions of seasonal-mean circulation and ISO to the SSE. The results show that, during the active TC decade, the SSE obtained higher KE from both mean flow and ISO through eddy barotropic energy conversion when the enhanced SSE momentum flux interacted with the strengthened monsoon trough and vigorous ISO cyclonic anomaly over the western tropical Pacific. The increased SSE KE contributed positively to the increased TC genesis over the main genesis region (7.5°-20°N, 130°-170°E). It also benefited the growth of TCs over the Philippine Sea and the South China Sea during the active decade. The decadal change in TC frequency over the extratropics was related to the eddy baroclinic energy conversion instead of the barotropic conversion associated with scale interaction. During the active TC decade, SSE gained more (less) KE from the SSE available potential energy over the east of Japan (the East China Sea

  4. Climate engineering research : A precautionary response to climate change?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reynolds, J.L.; Fleurke, F.M.

    2013-01-01

    In the face of dire forecasts for anthropogenic climate change, climate engineering is increasingly discussed as a possible additional set of responses to reduce climate change’s threat. These proposals have been controversial, in part because they – like climate change itself – pose uncertain risks

  5. Which climatic modeling to assess climate change impacts on vineyards?

    OpenAIRE

    Quenol, Herve; Garcia De Cortazar Atauri, Inaki; Bois, Benjamin; Sturman, Andrew; Bonnardot, Valerie; Le Roux, Renan

    2017-01-01

    The impact of climatic change on viticulture is significant: main phenological stages appear earlier, wine characteristics are changing, ... This clearly illustrates the point that the adaptation of viticulture to climate change is crucial and should be based on simulations of future climate. Several types of models exist and are used to represent viticultural climates at various scales. In this paper, we propose a review of different types of climate models (methodology and uncertainties) an...

  6. Market Strategies for Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kolk, A.; Pinkse, J. [Business School, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2004-06-01

    The issue of climate change has attracted increasing business attention in the past decade. Whereas companies initially aimed primarily at influencing the policy debate, corporate strategies increasingly include economic responses. Existing classifications for climate change strategies however still reflect the political, non-market components. Using empirical information from the largest multinational companies worldwide, this article examines current market responses, focusing on the drivers (threats and opportunities) and the actions being taken by companies to address climate change. It also develops a typology of climate strategies that addresses the market dimensions, covering both the aim (strategic intent) and the degree of cooperation (form of organisation). The aim turns out to be either innovation or compensation, while the organisational arrangements to reach this objective can be oriented at the company level (internal), at companies' own supply chain (vertical) or at cooperation with other companies (competitors or companies in other sectors - horizontal). The typology can assist managers in deciding about the strategic option(s) they want to choose regarding climate change, also based on the insights offered by the paper about the current state of activities of other companies worldwide.

  7. Climate Change | Page 16 | IDRC - International Development ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Climate Change. Language English. Read more about African Climate Change Fellowship Program - Phase II. Language English. Read more about Water Security in Periurban South Asia : Adapting to Climate Change and Urbanization. Language English. Read more about Knowledge Sharing for Climate Change ...

  8. Climate Change | Page 16 | IDRC - International Development ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Home · Agriculture and Environment. Climate Change. Language English. Read more about Climate Change and Water Adaptation Options. Language English. Read more about Building Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change in Southeast Asia. Language English. Read more about African Climate Change Fellowship ...

  9. Adapting Indian Agriculture to Global Climate Change

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Adapting Indian Agriculture to Global Climate Change · Climate Change: Generic Implications for Agriculture · Controlled environment facilities at IARI used for evaluating model performance in future climate change scenarios · Slide 4 · Slide 5 · Global studies indicate considerable impact of climate change in tropics.

  10. Climate Change Adaptation Plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-01

    www.ccawwg.us/ docs/Short-Term_Water_Management_Decisions_Final_3_ Jan_2013.pdf Short MD, Peirson WL, Peters GL, Cox RJ. Managing adaptation of urban water...Reduction ER: Ecosystem Restoration H: Hydrop wer G: gul t ry RC: Recreation EM: Emergency Management W: Water Supply + Changes in stormwater runoff N...USACE is taking to manage these risks and vulnerabilities. This Plan contains a description of programs, policies, and plans USACE has already put in

  11. A history of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hastrup, Kirsten Blinkenberg

    2016-01-01

    , and to the new intellectual challenges that both natural and social scientists are facing in relation to the current climatic changes. These challenges are discussed through the case of the Inughuit with whom the author has worked over many years. Departing from their dire situation in the 19th century, when......This article presents a small community of High Arctic hunters (the Inughuit in North West Greenland) who have always had to negotiate climatic changes with great impact on their living conditions. This points us toward the natural-social entanglements implied in the notion of the Anthropocene...

  12. [Air quality and climate change].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loft, Steffen

    2009-10-26

    Air quality, health and climate change are closely connected. Ozone depends on temperature and the greenhouse gas methane from cattle and biomass. Pollen presence depends on temperature and CO2. The effect of climate change on particulate air pollution is complex, but the likely net effect is greater health risks. Reduction of greenhouse-gas emissions by reduced livestock production and use of combustion for energy production, transport and heating will also improve air quality. Energy savings in buildings and use of CO2 neutral fuels should not deteriorate indoor and outdoor air quality.

  13. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    2013-01-01

    It has been a world priority for more than a decade to reduc greenhouse gas emissions within the frame of the Kyoto Protocol. However, since the Kyoto Protocol it has proved difficult to reach an international consensus at the Conference of the Parties on the continuation of a global agreement...... on three main initiatives consisting of the need to examine the potential impacts of climate change on the building stock, the need to assess and develop a roadmap of current and future adaptation measures that can withstand the effects of climate change, and the need to engage relevant stakeholders...

  14. Public Engagement on Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curry, J.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change communication is complicated by complexity of the scientific problem, multiple perspectives on the magnitude of the risk from climate change, often acrimonious disputes between scientists, high stakes policy options, and overall politicization of the issue. Efforts to increase science literacy as a route towards persuasion around the need for a policy like cap and trade have failed, because the difficulty that a scientist has in attempting to make sense of the social and political complexity is very similar to the complexity facing the general public as they try to make sense of climate science itself. In this talk I argue for a shift from scientists and their institutions as information disseminators to that of public engagement and enablers of public participation. The goal of engagement is not just to inform, but to enable, motivate and educate the public regarding the technical, political, and social dimensions of climate change. Engagement is a two-way process where experts and decision-makers seek input and learn from the public about preferences, needs, insights, and ideas relative to climate change impacts, vulnerabilities, solutions and policy options. Effective public engagement requires that scientists detach themselves from trying to control what the public does with the acquired knowledge and motivation. The goal should not be to "sell" the public on particular climate change solutions, since such advocacy threatens public trust in scientists and their institutions. Conduits for public engagement include the civic engagement approach in the context of community meetings, and perhaps more significantly, the blogosphere. Since 2006, I have been an active participant in the climate blogosphere, focused on engaging with people that are skeptical of AGW. A year ago, I started my own blog Climate Etc. at judithcurry.com. The demographic that I have focused my communication/engagement activities are the technically educated and scientifically

  15. Maritime Archaeology and Climate Change: An Invitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Jeneva

    2016-12-01

    Maritime archaeology has a tremendous capacity to engage with climate change science. The field is uniquely positioned to support climate change research and the understanding of past human adaptations to climate change. Maritime archaeological data can inform on environmental shifts and submerged sites can serve as an important avenue for public outreach by mobilizing public interest and action towards understanding the impacts of climate change. Despite these opportunities, maritime archaeologists have not fully developed a role within climate change science and policy. Moreover, submerged site vulnerabilities stemming from climate change impacts are not yet well understood. This article discusses potential climate change threats to maritime archaeological resources, the challenges confronting cultural resource managers, and the contributions maritime archaeology can offer to climate change science. Maritime archaeology's ability to both support and benefit from climate change science argues its relevant and valuable place in the global climate change dialogue, but also reveals the necessity for our heightened engagement.

  16. Case grows for climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hileman, B.

    1999-08-09

    In the four years since the IPCC stated that 'the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate', evidence for anomalous warming has become more compelling, and as a result scientists have become more concerned that human-induced climate change has already arrived. The article summarises recent extra evidence on global temperatures, carbon dioxide measurements, ice shelf breakup, coral bleaching, unstable climates and improved climate models. At the time of the Kyoto conference, the US became keen on the idea that enhancing forest and soil carbon sequestration was a good way to offset emissions reduction targets. Congress is however under the opinion on that the Kyoto protocol presents a threat to the US economy, and senate is very unlikely to ratify the protocol during the Clinton Administration. The debate as to whether the US government should mandate major emission reduction or wait for more scientific certainty may continue for a number of years, but, growing concern of scientists and the public for the harmful effects of climate change may cause a change. 4 figs., 8 photos.

  17. Mangrove ecosystems under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennerjahn, T.C.; Gilman, E.; Krauss, Ken W.; Lacerda, L.D.; Nordhaus, I.; Wolanski, E.

    2017-01-01

    This chapter assesses the response of mangrove ecosystems to possible outcomes of climate change, with regard to the following categories: (i) distribution, diversity, and community composition, (ii) physiology of flora and fauna, (iii) water budget, (iv) productivity and remineralization, (v) carbon storage in biomass and sediments, and (vi) the filter function for elements beneficial or harmful to life. These categories are then used to identify the regions most vulnerable to climate change. The four most important factors determining the response of mangrove ecosystems to climate change are sea level rise, an increase in frequency and/or intensity of storms, increases in temperature, and aridity. While these changes may be beneficial for some mangrove forests at latitudinal distribution limits, they will threaten forest structure and functions and related ecosystem services in most cases. The interaction of climate change with human interventions is discussed, as well as the effects on ecosystem services including possible adaptation and management options. The chapter closes with an outlook on knowledge gaps and priority research needed to fill these gaps.

  18. The origin of climate changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delecluse, P

    2008-08-01

    Investigation on climate change is coordinated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which has the delicate task of collecting recent knowledge on climate change and the related impacts of the observed changes, and then developing a consensus statement from these findings. The IPCC's last review, published at the end of 2007, summarised major findings on the present climate situation. The observations show a clear increase in the temperature of the Earth's surface and the oceans, a reduction in the land snow cover, and melting of the sea ice and glaciers. Numerical modelling combined with statistical analysis has shown that this warming trend is very likely the signature of increasing emissions of greenhouse gases linked with human activities. Given the continuing social and economic development around the world, the IPCC emission scenarios forecast an increasing greenhouse effect, at least until 2050 according to the most optimistic models. The model ensemble predicts a rising temperature that will reach dangerous levels for the biosphere and ecosystems within this century. Hydrological systems and the potential significant impacts of these systems on the environment are also discussed. Facing this challenging future, societies must take measures to reduce emissions and work on adapting to an inexorably changing environment. Present knowledge is sufficientto start taking action, but a stronger foundation is needed to ensure that pertinent long-term choices are made that will meet the demands of an interactive and rapidly evolving world.

  19. Climate Change and Algal Blooms =

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Shengpan

    Algal blooms are new emerging hazards that have had important social impacts in recent years. However, it was not very clear whether future climate change causing warming waters and stronger storm events would exacerbate the algal bloom problem. The goal of this dissertation was to evaluate the sensitivity of algal biomass to climate change in the continental United States. Long-term large-scale observations of algal biomass in inland lakes are challenging, but are necessary to relate climate change to algal blooms. To get observations at this scale, this dissertation applied machine-learning algorithms including boosted regression trees (BRT) in remote sensing of chlorophyll-a with Landsat TM/ETM+. The results show that the BRT algorithm improved model accuracy by 15%, compared to traditional linear regression. The remote sensing model explained 46% of the total variance of the ground-measured chlorophyll- a in the first National Lake Assessment conducted by the US Environmental Protection Agency. That accuracy was ecologically meaningful to study climate change impacts on algal blooms. Moreover, the BRT algorithm for chlorophyll- a would not have systematic bias that is introduced by sediments and colored dissolved organic matter, both of which might change concurrently with climate change and algal blooms. This dissertation shows that the existing atmospheric corrections for Landsat TM/ETM+ imagery might not be good enough to improve the remote sensing of chlorophyll-a in inland lakes. After deriving long-term algal biomass estimates from Landsat TM/ETM+, time series analysis was used to study the relations of climate change and algal biomass in four Missouri reservoirs. The results show that neither temperature nor precipitation was the only factor that controlled temporal variation of algal biomass. Different reservoirs, even different zones within the same reservoir, responded differently to temperature and precipitation changes. These findings were further

  20. Investigating Potential Causes for An Abrupt Change of Thermal State in Earth's Upper Mantle During the Great Oxygenation Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, M.; McNamara, A. K.

    2014-12-01

    The oxygenic photosynthesis might have well evolved about 3 billion years ago, but there seems no great increase of atmospheric oxygen until the great oxygenation event (GOE) at about 2.4 Ga. One possibility for the suppressing of atmospheric oxygen level before the GOE is through consumption of oxygen by reduced volcanic gasses. The amount of atmospheric oxygen that could be consumed by volcanic gases depends on the absolute amount of volcanic gases as well as the redox state of the upper mantle. Evidence from the redox sensitive V/Sc ratio have shown that the redox state of the upper mantle have remained constant for the last 3.5 billion years (e.g., Li and Lee, 2004). If so, abrupt changes in thermal state of Earth's upper mantle could explain the rapid changes of degassing rate at the time of GOE. The Earth's lowermost mantle has been shown to be compositionally heterogeneous, which could be caused by the presence of dense, primordial material resulting from early differentiation processes. An important question is how do chemical heterogeneities in the lowermost mantle influence the secular cooling of the upper mantle. Here, we performed numerical calculations to explore the effects of themochemical convection on the thermal evolution of Earth's upper mantle. A large parameter space is explored, with varying Rayleigh number, viscosity, internal heating and density of chemical heterogeneities. We start with an initially hot mantle with a layer of dense material in the lowermost mantle. We found that when the mantle is hot, the dense material remains layered and covers the entire CMB, leading to low CMB heat flux. In this stage, the upper mantle cools down rapidly. However, as the mantle cools, the dense material is swept into discrete thermochemical piles by cold downwellings, leading to increasing CMB heat flux. The cooling rate of the mantle is temporarily reduced as this transition occurs. This occurs at a time consistent with the GOE event. Li, Z. X. A. and

  1. Arctic climate change in NORKLIMA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    The NORKLIMA programme is the national Norwegian initiative on climate research established for the period 2004-2013. The programme seeks to generate key knowledge about climate trends, the impacts of climate change, and how Norway can adapt to these changes. The NORKLIMA programme also encompasses research on instruments and policies for reducing emissions. Large-scale Programmes As part of the effort to meet national research-policy priorities, the Research Council has established a special funding instrument called the Large-scale Programmes. This initiative is designed to build long-term knowledge in order to encourage innovation and enhance value creation as well as to help find solutions to important challenges facing society.(Author)

  2. Abrupt warming of the Red Sea

    KAUST Repository

    Raitsos, D. E.

    2011-07-19

    Coral reef ecosystems, often referred to as “marine rainforests,” concentrate the most diverse life in the oceans. Red Sea reef dwellers are adapted in a very warm environment, fact that makes them vulnerable to further and rapid warming. The detection and understanding of abrupt temperature changes is an important task, as ecosystems have more chances to adapt in a slowly rather than in a rapid changing environment. Using satellite derived sea surface and ground based air temperatures, it is shown that the Red Sea is going through an intense warming initiated in the mid-90s, with evidence for an abrupt increase after 1994 (0.7°C difference pre and post the shift). The air temperature is found to be a key parameter that influences the Red Sea marine temperature. The comparisons with Northern Hemisphere temperatures revealed that the observed warming is part of global climate change trends. The hitherto results also raise additional questions regarding other broader climatic impacts over the area.

  3. Threshold effects in the vegetation response to Holocene climate changes in central Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Understanding the response of ecosystems to past climate is critical for evaluating the impacts of future climate changes. A relatively abrupt vegetation shift in response to the late Holocene gradual climate changes has been well documented for the Sahara-Sahel ecosystem. However, whether such threshold shift is of universal significance remains to be further addressed. Here, we examine the vegetation-climate relationships in central Asia based on four newly recovered Holocene pollen records and a synthesis on previously published pollen data. The results show that the orbital-induced gradual climate trend during the Holocene led to two major abrupt vegetation shifts, and that the timings of these shifts are highly dependent of the local rainfall conditions. Instead, the mid-Holocene vegetation remained rather stable despite of the changing climate. These new findings demonstrate generally significant threshold and truncation effects of climate changes on vegetation, as are strongly supported by surface pollen data and LPJ-GUESS modeling. The results also imply that using pollen data to reconstruct past climate changes is not always straightforward. Our findings have important implication for understanding the potential effects of global warming on dryland ecosystem change.

  4. A Lesson on Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Jim

    This cooperative learning activity, for grades 7-12, promotes critical thinking skills within the context of learning about the causes and effects of climate change. Objectives include: (1) understanding factors that reduce greenhouse gases; (2) understanding the role of trees in reducing greenhouse gases; (3) identifying foods that produce…

  5. Population, Poverty, and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Das Gupta, Monica

    2013-01-01

    The literature is reviewed on the relationships between population, poverty, and climate change. While developed countries are largely responsible for global warming, the brunt of the fallout will be borne by the developing world, in lower agricultural output, poorer health, and more frequent natural disasters. Carbon emissions in the developed world have leveled off, but are projected to ...

  6. Biome redistribution under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dominique Bachelet; Ronald P. Neilson

    2000-01-01

    General warming in the Northern Hemisphere has been recorded since the end of the 1800s following the Little Ice Age. Records of glacier retreat during the last 100 years over the entire globe independently confirmed the recorded trend in global temperature rise. Several studies have illustrated various responses to this climate forcing, i.e., the recorded changes in...

  7. Climate change, zoonoses and India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, B B; Sharma, R; Gill, J P S; Aulakh, R S; Banga, H S

    2011-12-01

    Economic trends have shaped our growth and the growth of the livestock sector, but atthe expense of altering natural resources and systems in ways that are not always obvious. Now, however, the reverse is beginning to happen, i.e. environmental trends are beginning to shape our economy and health status. In addition to water, air and food, animals and birds play a pivotal role in the maintenance and transmission of important zoonotic diseases in nature. It is generally considered that the prevalence of vector-borne and waterborne zoonoses is likely to increase in the coming years due to the effects of global warming in India. In recent years, vector-borne diseases have emerged as a serious public health problem in countries of the South-East Asia region, including India. Vector-borne zoonoses now occur in epidemic form almost on an annual basis, causing considerable morbidity and mortality. New reservoir areas of cutaneous leishmaniosis in South India have been recognised, and the role of climate change in its re-emergence warrants further research, as does the role of climate change in the ascendancy of waterborne and foodborne illness. Similarly, climate change that leads to warmer and more humid conditions may increase the risk of transmission of airborne zoonoses, and hot and drier conditions may lead to a decline in the incidence of disease(s). The prevalence of these zoonotic diseases and their vectors and the effect of climate change on important zoonoses in India are discussed in this review.

  8. Organic Farming and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Niggli, Urs; Schmid, Heinz; Fliessbach, Andreas

    2008-01-01

    This publication concludes that organic agriculture has much to offer in both mitigation of climate change through its emphasis on closed nutrient cycles and is a particularly resilient and productive system for adaptation strategies. It also raises the issue of whether organic agriculture should be eligible for carbon credits under voluntary carbon offsetting markets and the Clean Development Mechanism.

  9. Regional Highlights of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    David L. Peterson; J.M. Wolken; Teresa Hollingsworth; Christian Giardina; J.S. Littell; Linda Joyce; Chris Swanston; Stephen Handler; Lindsey Rustad; Steve McNulty

    2014-01-01

    Climatic extremes, ecological disturbance, and their interactions are expected to have major effects on ecosystems and social systems in most regions of the United States in the coming decades. In Alaska, where the largest temperature increases have occurred, permafrost is melting, carbon is being released, and fire regimes are changing, leading to a...

  10. Climate Change and Respiratory Infections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirsaeidi, Mehdi; Motahari, Hooman; Taghizadeh Khamesi, Mojdeh; Sharifi, Arash; Campos, Michael; Schraufnagel, Dean E

    2016-08-01

    The rate of global warming has accelerated over the past 50 years. Increasing surface temperature is melting glaciers and raising the sea level. More flooding, droughts, hurricanes, and heat waves are being reported. Accelerated changes in climate are already affecting human health, in part by altering the epidemiology of climate-sensitive pathogens. In particular, climate change may alter the incidence and severity of respiratory infections by affecting vectors and host immune responses. Certain respiratory infections, such as avian influenza and coccidioidomycosis, are occurring in locations previously unaffected, apparently because of global warming. Young children and older adults appear to be particularly vulnerable to rapid fluctuations in ambient temperature. For example, an increase in the incidence in childhood pneumonia in Australia has been associated with sharp temperature drops from one day to the next. Extreme weather events, such as heat waves, floods, major storms, drought, and wildfires, are also believed to change the incidence of respiratory infections. An outbreak of aspergillosis among Japanese survivors of the 2011 tsunami is one such well-documented example. Changes in temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and air pollution influence viral activity and transmission. For example, in early 2000, an outbreak of Hantavirus respiratory disease was linked to a local increase in the rodent population, which in turn was attributed to a two- to threefold increase in rainfall before the outbreak. Climate-sensitive respiratory pathogens present challenges to respiratory health that may be far greater in the foreseeable future.

  11. Emergency Managers Confront Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John R. Labadie

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Emergency managers will have to deal with the impending, uncertain, and possibly extreme effects of climate change. Yet, many emergency managers are not aware of the full range of possible effects, and they are unsure of their place in the effort to plan for, adapt to, and cope with those effects. This may partly reflect emergency mangers’ reluctance to get caught up in the rancorous—and politically-charged—debate about climate change, but it mostly is due to the worldview shared by most emergency managers. We focus on: extreme events; acute vs. chronic hazards (floods vs. droughts; a shorter event horizon (5 years vs. 75–100 years; and a shorter planning and operational cycle. This paper explores the important intersection of emergency management, environmental management, and climate change mitigation and adaptation. It examines the different definitions of terms common to all three fields, the overlapping strategies used in all three fields, and the best means of collaboration and mutual re-enforcement among the three to confront and solve the many possible futures that we may face in the climate change world.

  12. Is climate change human induced?

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    India is considered highly vulnerable to climate change, not only because of high ... Central Plateau, the Western and Eastern Ghats and the oceans surrounding the .... shares border with China (Tibet) in the North and Nepal in the East and ...

  13. Climate benefits of changing diet

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stehfest, E.; Bouwman, A.F.; Vuuren, van D.P.; Elzen, M.; Kabat, P.

    2009-01-01

    Climate change mitigation policies tend to focus on the energy sector, while the livestock sector receives surprisingly little attention, despite the fact that it accounts for 18% of the greenhouse gas emissions and for 80% of total anthropogenic land use. From a dietary perspective, new insights in

  14. Students' evaluations about climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lombardi, Doug; Brandt, Carol B.; Bickel, Elliot S.; Burg, Colin

    2016-05-01

    Scientists regularly evaluate alternative explanations of phenomena and solutions to problems. Students should similarly engage in critical evaluation when learning about scientific and engineering topics. However, students do not often demonstrate sophisticated evaluation skills in the classroom. The purpose of the present study was to investigate middle school students' evaluations when confronted with alternative explanations of the complex and controversial topic of climate change. Through a qualitative analysis, we determined that students demonstrated four distinct categories of evaluation when writing about the connections between evidence and alternative explanations of climate change: (a) erroneous evaluation, (b) descriptive evaluation, (c) relational evaluation, and (d) critical evaluation. These categories represent different types of evaluation quality. A quantitative analysis revealed that types of evaluation, along with plausibility perceptions about the alternative explanations, were significant predictors of postinstructional knowledge about scientific principles underlying the climate change phenomenon. Specifically, more robust evaluations and greater plausibility toward the scientifically accepted model of human-induced climate change predicted greater knowledge. These findings demonstrate that instruction promoting critical evaluation and plausibility appraisal may promote greater understanding of socio-scientific topics and increased use of scientific thinking when considering alternative explanations, as is called for by recent science education reform efforts.

  15. Climate Change: Evidence and Causes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolff, Eric

    2014-01-01

    The fundamentals of climate change are well established: greenhouse gases warm the planet; their concentrations in the atmosphere are increasing; Earth has warmed, and is going to continue warming with a range of impacts. This article summarises the contents of a recent publication issued by the UK's Royal Society and the US National Academy of…

  16. The Science of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oppenheimer, Michael; Anttila-Hughes, Jesse K.

    2016-01-01

    Michael Oppenheimer and Jesse Anttila-Hughes begin with a primer on how the greenhouse effect works, how we know that Earth is rapidly getting warmer, and how we know that the recent warming is caused by human activity. They explain the sources of scientific knowledge about climate change as well as the basis for the models scientists use to…

  17. Research for climate change adaptation

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Corey Piccioni

    Climate change is being felt globally, particularly in developing countries, with impacts in the form of more frequent and severe flooding, extreme weather, desertification, and rising sea levels, amongst others. These impacts are ulti- mately affecting water availability, food security, and livelihoods for millions of vulnerable ...

  18. The Whiteness of Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Lars

    2011-01-01

    This article examines two major debates in contemporary Australian discourses on the nation: climate change and whiteness studies. It is primarily concerned with establishing a framework for connecting the two discourses, and in that process it raises pivotal questions about how narratives about...

  19. Nonlinearly combined impacts of initial perturbation from human activities and parameter perturbation from climate change on the grassland ecosystem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Sun

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Human activities and climate change are important factors that affect grassland ecosystems. A new optimization approach, the approach of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP related to initial and parameter perturbations, is employed to explore the nonlinearly combined impacts of human activities and climate change on a grassland ecosystem using a theoretical grassland model. In our study, it is assumed that the initial perturbations and parameter perturbations are regarded as human activities and climate change, respectively. Numerical results indicate that the climate changes causing the maximum effect in the grassland ecosystem are different under disparate intensities of human activities. This implies the pattern of climate change is very critical to the maintenance or degradation of grassland ecosystem in light of high intensity of human activities and that the grassland ecosystem should be rationally managed when the moisture index decreases. The grassland ecosystem influenced by the nonlinear combination of human activities and climate change undergoes abrupt change, while the grassland ecosystem affected by other types of human activities and climate change fails to show the abrupt change under a certain range of perturbations with the theoretical model. The further numerical analyses also indicate that the growth of living biomass and the evaporation from soil surface shaded by the wilted biomass may be crucial factors contributing to the abrupt change of the grassland equilibrium state within the theoretical model.

  20. Solar Changes and Climate Changes. (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feynman, J.

    2009-12-01

    During the early decades of the Space Age there was general agreement in the scientific community on two facts: (1) sunspot cycles continued without interruption; (2) decadal timescale variations in the solar output has no effect on Earth’s climate. Then in 1976 Jack Eddy published a paper called ‘The Maunder Minimum” in Science magazine arguing that neither of these two established facts was true. He reviewed the observations from the 17th century that show the Sun did not appear to cycle for several decades and he related that to the cold winters in Northern Europe at that time. The paper has caused three decades of hot discussions. When Jack Eddy died on June 10th of this year the arguments were sill going on, and there were no sunspots that day. The Sun was in the longest and deepest solar minimum since 1900. In this talk I will describe the changes in the solar output that have taken place over the last few decades and put them in their historical context. I will also review recent work on the influence of decadal and century scale solar variations on the Earth’s climate. It is clear that this long, deep “solar minimum” is an opportunity to make fundamental progress on our understanding of the solar dynamo and to separate climate change due to the Sun from anthropogenic climate change.

  1. Statistical evaluation of the significance of the influence of abrupt changes in solar activity on the dynamics of the epidemic process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Druzhinin, I. P.; Khamyanova, N. V.; Yagodinskiy, V. N.

    1974-01-01

    Statistical evaluations of the significance of the relationship of abrupt changes in solar activity and discontinuities in the multi-year pattern of an epidemic process are reported. They reliably (with probability of more than 99.9%) show the real nature of this relationship and its great specific weight (about half) in the formation of discontinuities in the multi-year pattern of the processes in question.

  2. Climate Change | IDRC - International Development Research Centre

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    The online catalogue systematizes practical climate change adaptation solutions arising from an expansive body of work generated by the IDRC Climate Change Adaptation in Africa and Climate Change and Water programs. Since 2006, IDRC has funded more than 100 climate and water related projects, contributing more ...

  3. Changing Climates @ Colorado State: 100 (Multidisciplinary) Views of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, S.; Calderazzo, J.; Changing Climates, Cmmap Education; Diversity Team

    2011-12-01

    We would like to talk about a multidisciplinary education and outreach program we co-direct at Colorado State University, with support from an NSF-funded STC, CMMAP, the Center for Multiscale Modeling of Atmospheric Processes. We are working to raise public literacy about climate change by providing information that is high quality, up to date, thoroughly multidisciplinary, and easy for non-specialists to understand. Our primary audiences are college-level students, their teachers, and the general public. Our motto is Climate Change is Everybody's Business. To encourage and help our faculty infuse climate-change content into their courses, we have organized some 115 talks given by as many different speakers-speakers drawn from 28 academic departments, all 8 colleges at CSU, and numerous other entities from campus, the community, and farther afield. We began with a faculty-teaching-faculty series and then broadened our attentions to the whole campus and surrounding community. Some talks have been for narrowly focused audiences such as extension agents who work on energy, but most are for more eclectic groups of students, staff, faculty, and citizens. We count heads at most events, and our current total is roughly 6,000. We have created a website (http://changingclimates.colostate.edu) that includes videotapes of many of these talks, short videos we have created, and annotated sources that we judge to be accurate, interesting, clearly written, and aimed at non-specialists, including books, articles and essays, websites, and a few items specifically for college teachers (such as syllabi). Pages of the website focus on such topics as how the climate works / how it changes; what's happening / what might happen; natural ecosystems; agriculture; impacts on people; responses from ethics, art, literature; communication; daily life; policy; energy; and-pulling all the pieces together-the big picture. We have begun working on a new series of very short videos that can be

  4. Climate Change and Intertidal Wetlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pauline M. Ross

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Intertidal wetlands are recognised for the provision of a range of valued ecosystem services. The two major categories of intertidal wetlands discussed in this contribution are saltmarshes and mangrove forests. Intertidal wetlands are under threat from a range of anthropogenic causes, some site-specific, others acting globally. Globally acting factors include climate change and its driving cause—the increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. One direct consequence of climate change will be global sea level rise due to thermal expansion of the oceans, and, in the longer term, the melting of ice caps and glaciers. The relative sea level rise experienced at any one locality will be affected by a range of factors, as will the response of intertidal wetlands to the change in sea level. If relative sea level is rising and sedimentation within intertidal wetlands does not keep pace, then there will be loss of intertidal wetlands from the seaward edge, with survival of the ecosystems only possible if they can retreat inland. When retreat is not possible, the wetland area will decline in response to the “squeeze” experienced. Any changes to intertidal wetland vegetation, as a consequence of climate change, will have flow on effects to biota, while changes to biota will affect intertidal vegetation. Wetland biota may respond to climate change by shifting in distribution and abundance landward, evolving or becoming extinct. In addition, impacts from ocean acidification and warming are predicted to affect the fertilisation, larval development, growth and survival of intertidal wetland biota including macroinvertebrates, such as molluscs and crabs, and vertebrates such as fish and potentially birds. The capacity of organisms to move and adapt will depend on their life history characteristics, phenotypic plasticity, genetic variability, inheritability of adaptive characteristics, and the predicted rates of environmental change.

  5. Quantitative approaches in climate change ecology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brown, Christopher J.; Schoeman, David S.; Sydeman, William J.

    2011-01-01

    Contemporary impacts of anthropogenic climate change on ecosystems are increasingly being recognized. Documenting the extent of these impacts requires quantitative tools for analyses of ecological observations to distinguish climate impacts in noisy data and to understand interactions between...... climate variability and other drivers of change. To assist the development of reliable statistical approaches, we review the marine climate change literature and provide suggestions for quantitative approaches in climate change ecology. We compiled 267 peer‐reviewed articles that examined relationships...

  6. Climate Change and the Delta

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Dettinger

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.15447/sfews.2016v14iss3art5Anthropogenic climate change amounts to a rapidly approaching, “new” stressor in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta system. In response to California’s extreme natural hydroclimatic variability, complex water-management systems have been developed, even as the Delta’s natural ecosystems have been largely devastated. Climate change is projected to challenge these management and ecological systems in different ways that are characterized by different levels of uncertainty. For example, there is high certainty that climate will warm by about 2°C more (than late-20th-century averages by mid-century and about 4°C by end of century, if greenhouse-gas emissions continue their current rates of acceleration. Future precipitation changes are much less certain, with as many climate models projecting wetter conditions as drier. However, the same projections agree that precipitation will be more intense when storms do arrive, even as more dry days will separate storms. Warmer temperatures will likely enhance evaporative demands and raise water temperatures. Consequently, climate change is projected to yield both more extreme flood risks and greater drought risks. Sea level rise (SLR during the 20th century was about 22 cm, and is projected to increase by at least 3-fold this century. SLR together with land subsidence threatens the Delta with greater vulnerabilities to inundation and salinity intrusion. Effects on the Delta ecosystem that are traceable to warming include SLR, reduced snowpack, earlier snowmelt and larger storm-driven streamflows, warmer and longer summers, warmer summer water temperatures, and water-quality changes. These changes and their uncertainties will challenge the operations of water projects and uses throughout the Delta’s watershed and delivery areas. Although the effects of of climate change on Delta ecosystems may be profound, the end results are difficult to predict

  7. Climate change and the Delta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, Michael; Anderson, Jamie; Anderson, Michael L.; Brown, Larry R.; Cayan, Daniel; Maurer, Edwin P.

    2016-01-01

    Anthropogenic climate change amounts to a rapidly approaching, “new” stressor in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta system. In response to California’s extreme natural hydroclimatic variability, complex water-management systems have been developed, even as the Delta’s natural ecosystems have been largely devastated. Climate change is projected to challenge these management and ecological systems in different ways that are characterized by different levels of uncertainty. For example, there is high certainty that climate will warm by about 2°C more (than late-20th-century averages) by mid-century and about 4°C by end of century, if greenhouse-gas emissions continue their current rates of acceleration. Future precipitation changes are much less certain, with as many climate models projecting wetter conditions as drier. However, the same projections agree that precipitation will be more intense when storms do arrive, even as more dry days will separate storms. Warmer temperatures will likely enhance evaporative demands and raise water temperatures. Consequently, climate change is projected to yield both more extreme flood risks and greater drought risks. Sea level rise (SLR) during the 20th century was about 22cm, and is projected to increase by at least 3-fold this century. SLR together with land subsidence threatens the Delta with greater vulnerabilities to inundation and salinity intrusion. Effects on the Delta ecosystem that are traceable to warming include SLR, reduced snowpack, earlier snowmelt and larger storm-driven streamflows, warmer and longer summers, warmer summer water temperatures, and water-quality changes. These changes and their uncertainties will challenge the operations of water projects and uses throughout the Delta’s watershed and delivery areas. Although the effects of climate change on Delta ecosystems may be profound, the end results are difficult to predict, except that native species will fare worse than invaders. Successful

  8. Rapid climate changes in the tropical Atlantic region during the last deglaciation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughen, Konrad A.; Overpeck, Jonathan T.; Peterson, Larry C.; Trumbore, Susan

    1996-03-01

    THE climate system is capable of changing abruptly from one stable mode to another1-3. Rapid climate oscillations-in particular the Younger Dryas cold period during the last deglaciation-have long been recognized from records throughout the North Atlantic region4-14, and the distribution of these records at mostly high latitudes suggests that the changes were caused by rapid reorganizations of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation6,8,10,15. But events far from the North Atlantic region that are synchronous with the Younger Dryas16-19 raise the possibility that a more global forcing mechanism was responsible20. Here we present high-resolution records of laminated sediments of the last deglaciation from the Cariaco basin (tropical Atlantic Ocean) which show many abrupt sub-decade to century-scale oscillations in surface-ocean biological productivity that are synchronous with climate changes at high latitudes. We attribute these productivity variations to changes in or duration of up-welling rate (and hence nutrient supply) caused by changes in trade-wind strength, which is in turn influenced by the thermo-haline circulation through its effect on sea surface temperature6,21. Abrupt climate changes in the tropical Atlantic during the last deglaciation are thus consistent with a North Atlantic circulation forcing mechanism.

  9. A common-sense climate index: is climate changing noticeably?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, J; Sato, M; Glascoe, J; Ruedy, R

    1998-04-14

    We propose an index of climate change based on practical climate indicators such as heating degree days and the frequency of intense precipitation. We find that in most regions the index is positive, the sense predicted to accompany global warming. In a few regions, especially in Asia and western North America, the index indicates that climate change should be apparent already, but in most places climate trends are too small to stand out above year-to-year variability. The climate index is strongly correlated with global surface temperature, which has increased as rapidly as projected by climate models in the 1980s. We argue that the global area with obvious climate change will increase notably in the next few years. But we show that the growth rate of greenhouse gas climate forcing has declined in recent years, and thus there is an opportunity to keep climate change in the 21st century less than "business-as-usual" scenarios.

  10. A common-sense climate index: is climate changing noticeably?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, J.; Sato, M.; Glascoe, J.; Ruedy, R.

    1998-01-01

    We propose an index of climate change based on practical climate indicators such as heating degree days and the frequency of intense precipitation. We find that in most regions the index is positive, the sense predicted to accompany global warming. In a few regions, especially in Asia and western North America, the index indicates that climate change should be apparent already, but in most places climate trends are too small to stand out above year-to-year variability. The climate index is strongly correlated with global surface temperature, which has increased as rapidly as projected by climate models in the 1980s. We argue that the global area with obvious climate change will increase notably in the next few years. But we show that the growth rate of greenhouse gas climate forcing has declined in recent years, and thus there is an opportunity to keep climate change in the 21st century less than "business-as-usual" scenarios.

  11. Climatic Changes on Tibetan Plateau Based on Ice Core Records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, T.

    2008-12-01

    Climatic changes have been reconstructed for the Tibetan Plateau based on ice core records. The Guliya ice core on the Tibetan Plateau presents climatic changes in the past 100,000 years, thus is comparative with that from Vostok ice core in Antarctica and GISP2 record in Arctic. These three records share an important common feature, i.e., our climate is not stable. It is also evident that the major patterns of climatic changes are similar on the earth. Why does climatic change over the earth follow a same pattern? It might be attributed to solar radiation. We found that the cold periods correspond to low insolation periods, and warm periods to high insolation periods. We found abrupt climatic change in the ice core climatic records, which presented dramatic temperature variation of as much as 10 °C in 50 or 60 years. Our major challenge in the study of both climate and environment is that greenhouse gases such as CO2, CH4 are possibly amplifying global warming, though at what degree remains unclear. One of the ways to understand the role of greenhouse gases is to reconstruct the past greenhouse gases recorded in ice. In 1997, we drilled an ice core from 7100 m a.s.l. in the Himalayas to reconstruct methane record. Based on the record, we found seasonal cycles in methane variation. In particular, the methane concentration is high in summer, suggestiing active methane emission from wet land in summer. Based on the seasonal cycle, we can reconstruct the methane fluctuation history in the past 500 years. The most prominent feature of the methane record in the Himalayan ice core is the abrupt increase since 1850 A.D.. This is closely related to the industrial revolution worldwide. We can also observe sudden decrease in methane concentration during the World War I and World War II. It implies that the industrial revolution has dominated the atmospheric greenhouse gas emission for about 100 years. Besides, the average methane concentration in the Himalayan ice core is

  12. Improving leadership on climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chandani, Achala

    2011-03-15

    The upcoming UN conference on climate change in Durban, South Africa throws a spotlight on African climate policy. As part of a knowledge-sharing initiative in Southern Africa, we assessed parliamentarians' needs for more information on climate threats and responses, and ways to improve their capabilities as key stakeholders influencing national and global decisionmaking. Funded by the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office and partnered with the Association of European Parliamentarians with Africa (AWEPA), IIED worked with parliamentarians in the Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU) — Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa and Swaziland — through interviews, literature surveys, field trips and workshops. Similar studies in Malawi and Scotland also fed into this project.

  13. Climate Change and Civil Violence

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Vink, G.; Plancherel, Y.; Hennet, C.; Jones, K. D.; Abdullah, A.; Bradshaw, J.; Dee, S.; Deprez, A.; Pasenello, M.; Plaza-Jennings, E.; Roseman, D.; Sopher, P.; Sung, E.

    2009-05-01

    The manifestations of climate change can result in humanitarian impacts that reverse progress in poverty- reduction, create shortages of food and resources, lead to migration, and ultimately result in civil violence and conflict. Within the continent of Africa, we have found that environmentally-related variables are either the cause or the confounding factor for over 80% of the civil violence events during the last 10 years. Using predictive climate models and land-use data, we are able to identify populations in Africa that are likely to experience the most severe climate-related shocks. Through geospatial analysis, we are able to overlay these areas of high risk with assessments of both the local population's resiliency and the region's capacity to respond to climate shocks should they occur. The net result of the analysis is the identification of locations that are becoming particularly vulnerable to future civil violence events (vulnerability hotspots) as a result of the manifestations of climate change. For each population group, over 600 social, economic, political, and environmental indicators are integrated statistically to measures the vulnerability of African populations to environmental change. The indicator time-series are filtered for data availability and redundancy, broadly ordered into four categories (social, political, economic and environmental), standardized and normalized. Within each category, the dominant modes of variability are isolated by principal component analysis and the loadings of each component for each variable are used to devise composite index scores. Comparisons of past vulnerability with known environmentally-related conflicts demonstrates the role that such vulnerability hotspot maps can play in evaluating both the potential for, and the significance of, environmentally-related civil violence events. Furthermore, the analysis reveals the major variables that are responsible for the population's vulnerability and therefore

  14. Southwest Pacific modulation of abrupt climate change during the Antarctic Cold Reversal - Younger Dryas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carter, L.; Manighetti, B.; Ganssen, G.M.

    2008-01-01

    The giant piston core, MD97-2121 (2314-m water depth), collected north of the Subtropical Front, New Zealand, provides a well-dated, stable isotopic record of subtropical and sub-Antarctic influences on the surface and deep ocean over the last deglaciation, especially during the Antarctic Cold

  15. Collaborative Proposal. Development of an Isotope-Enabled CESM for Testing Abrupt Climate Changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Otto-Bliesner, Bette [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2015-12-10

    We have made significant landmarks in our proposed work in the last 4 years (3 years plus 1 year of no cost extension). We have developed the simulation capability of the major isotopes in CESM. In particular, we have completed the implementation of the stable water isotopes (δ18O, δD) into the components for the atmosphere, ocean, land surface, runoff transport, sea ice, and coupler. In addition, the carbon isotopes (abiotic and biotic radiocarbon, δ13 C) have been implemented into the CESM ocean and land models, and long spinup simulations have been completed (Jahn et al., 2015). Furthermore, we have added abiotic Neodymium to the CESM ocean model as a tracer of ocean circulation, also measured by the proxy data community. Fullycoupled simulations with the stable water isotopes and ocean radiocarbon are currently being run for the preindustrial and also the Last Glacial Maximum. We have secured 19 million core-hours on the NWSC Yellowstone supercomputer for 12 months. Together with some CESM Paleoclimate Working Group CSL Yellowstone core hours, we are guaranteed sufficient computing for the spin-up experiments and deglaciation simulations for 21 to 15ka.

  16. Climate project screening tool: an aid for climate change adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toni Lyn Morelli; Sharon Yeh; Nikola M. Smith; Mary Beth Hennessy; Constance I. Millar

    2012-01-01

    To address the impacts of climate change, land managers need techniques for incorporating adaptation into ongoing or impending projects. We present a new tool, the Climate Project Screening Tool (CPST), for integrating climate change considerations into project planning as well as for developing concrete adaptation options for land managers. We designed CPST as part of...

  17. Tajikistan : Overview of Climate Change Activities

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2013-01-01

    This overview of climate change activities in Tajikistan is part of a series of country notes for five Central Asian countries that summarize climate portfolio of the major development partners in a number of climate-sensitive sectors, namely energy, agriculture, forestry and natural resources, water, health, and transport. Recognizing the nature and significance of climate change contribu...

  18. Hydrological consequences of the climatic changes

    OpenAIRE

    Balek, Jaroslav

    2006-01-01

    The climatic variability and climate changes in the geological history of Earth are correlated with the environmental development. A special attention is paid to the impact of changing climate on the water resources and hydrological cycle. Possible impact of man's activities on the climatic variability is also discussed. Can the regulation of such activities slow down or bring to a stop the forthcoming climate change? A comparison of data from the Holocene period and from modern history indic...

  19. Handbook of Climate Change Mitigation

    CERN Document Server

    Seiner, John; Suzuki, Toshio; Lackner, Maximilian

    2012-01-01

    There is a mounting consensus that human behavior is changing the global climate and its consequence could be catastrophic. Reducing the 24 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions from stationary and mobile sources is a gigantic task involving both technological challenges and monumental financial and societal costs. The pursuit of sustainable energy resources, environment, and economy has become a complex issue of global scale that affects the daily life of every citizen of the world. The present mitigation activities range from energy conservation, carbon-neutral energy conversions, carbon advanced combustion process that produce no greenhouse gases and that enable carbon capture and sequestion, to other advanced technologies. From its causes and impacts to its solutions, the issues surrounding climate change involve multidisciplinary science and technology. This handbook will provide a single source of this information. The book will be divided into the following sections: Scientific Evidence of Cl...

  20. Radiative Forcing of Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramaswamy, V.; Boucher, Olivier; Haigh, J.; Hauglustaine, D.; Haywood, J.; Myhre, G.; Nakajima, Takahito; Shi, Guangyu; Solomon, S.; Betts, Robert E.; Charlson, R.; Chuang, C. C.; Daniel, J. S.; Del Genio, Anthony D.; Feichter, J.; Fuglestvedt, J.; Forster, P. M.; Ghan, Steven J.; Jones, A.; Kiehl, J. T.; Koch, D.; Land, C.; Lean, J.; Lohmann, Ulrike; Minschwaner, K.; Penner, Joyce E.; Roberts, D. L.; Rodhe, H.; Roelofs, G.-J.; Rotstayn, Leon D.; Schneider, T. L.; Schumann, U.; Schwartz, Stephen E.; Schwartzkopf, M. D.; Shine, K. P.; Smith, Steven J.; Stevenson, D. S.; Stordal, F.; Tegen, I.; van Dorland, R.; Zhang, Y.; Srinivasan, J.; Joos, Fortunat

    2001-10-01

    Chapter 6 of the IPCC Third Assessment Report Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Sections include: Executive Summary 6.1 Radiative Forcing 6.2 Forcing-Response Relationship 6.3 Well-Mixed Greenhouse Gases 6.4 Stratospheric Ozone 6.5 Radiative Forcing By Tropospheric Ozone 6.6 Indirect Forcings due to Chemistry 6.7 The Direct Radiative Forcing of Tropospheric Aerosols 6.8 The Indirect Radiative Forcing of Tropospheric Aerosols 6.9 Stratospheric Aerosols 6.10 Land-use Change (Surface Albedo Effect) 6.11 Solar Forcing of Climate 6.12 Global Warming Potentials hydrocarbons 6.13 Global Mean Radiative Forcings 6.14 The Geographical Distribution of the Radiative Forcings 6.15 Time Evolution of Radiative Forcings Appendix 6.1 Elements of Radiative Forcing Concept References.

  1. Climate change and forest resilience

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    MacQueen, Duncan; Vermeulen, Sonja

    2006-10-15

    Significant global climate change is inevitable. Tree species have a limited capacity to tolerate climate change or migrate through natural or artificial means. We do not know enough about the comparative resilience of forest-based, agricultural, marine or fresh water ecosystems. But it is clear that biodiverse forest ecosystems are under threat. And the threat extends beyond forests themselves. An estimated 60 million indigenous people are heavily dependent on the world's rainforests. Some 350 million people live in or close to dense forests and rely on them for subsistence or income. A further 1.2 billion people in developing countries depend on trees on farm to generate food or cash.

  2. Chronology of soil evolution and climatic changes in the dry steppe zone of the Northern Caucasus, Russia, during the 3rd millennium BC

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alexandrovskiy, AL; van der Plicht, J; Belinskiy, AB; Khokhlova, OS

    2001-01-01

    Chrono-sequences of paleosols buried under different mounds of the large Ipatovo Kurgan, constructed during the Bronze Age, have been studied to reconstruct climatic changes in the dry steppe zone of the Northern Caucasus, Russia. Abrupt climatic and environmental changes in the third millennium BC

  3. Climate change: the science, impacts and solutions

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Pittock, A. Barrie

    2009-01-01

    ... Library of Australia Cataloguing-in-Publication entry Pittock, A. Barrie, 1938- Climate change : the science, impacts and solutions / A. Barrie Pittock. 2nd ed. 9780643094840 (pbk.) Includes index. Bibliography. Climatic changes - Government policy. Climatic changes - Risk assessment. Global environmental change. Greenhouse effect, Atmospheric. ...

  4. Teaching Climate Change Through Music

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, P. S.

    2007-12-01

    During 2006, Peter Weiss aka "The Singing Scientist" performed many music assemblies for elementary schools (K-5) in Santa Cruz County, California, USA. These assemblies were an opportunity for him to mix a discussion of climate change with rock n' roll. In one song called "Greenhouse Glasses", Peter and his band the "Earth Rangers" wear over-sized clown glasses with "molecules" hanging off them (made with Styrofoam balls and pipe cleaners). Each molecule is the real molecular structure of a greenhouse gas, and the song explains how when the wearer of these glasses looks up in the sky, he/she can see the "greenhouse gases floating by." "I've seen more of them this year than the last / 'Cuz fossil fuels are burning fast / I wish everyone could see through these frames / Then maybe we could prevent climate change" Students sing, dance and get a visual picture of something that is invisible, yet is part of a very real problem. This performance description is used as an example of an educational style that can reach a wide audience and provide a framework for the audience as learners to assimilate future information on climate change. The hypothesis is that complex socio-environmental issues like climate change that must be taught in order to achieve sustainability are best done so through alternative mediums like music. Students develop awareness which leads to knowledge about chemistry, physics, and biology. These kinds of experiences which connect science learning to fun activities and community building are seriously lacking in primary and secondary schools and are a big reason why science illiteracy is a current social problem. Science education is also paired with community awareness (including the local plant/animal community) and cooperation. The Singing Scientist attempts to create a culture where it is cool to care about the environment. Students end up gardening in school gardens together and think about their "ecological footprint".

  5. Poverty Traps and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    TOL, RICHARD S. J.

    2011-01-01

    PUBLISHED We use a demo-economic model to examine the question of whether climate change could widen or deepen poverty traps. The model includes two crucial mechanisms. Parents are risk averse when deciding how many children to have; fertility is high when infant survival is low. High fertility spreads scarce household resources thin, resulting in children being poorly educated. At the macro level, technological progress is slow because of decreasing returns to scale in agriculture. With h...

  6. Consumption, Happiness, and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Cohen, Mark A.; Vandenbergh, Michael P.

    2008-01-01

    In this article, we explore the implications of this literature for understanding the relationship between climate change policies and consumption. We identify a number of ways in which accounting for the implications of the new happiness literature could lead to laws and policies that influence consumption in ways that increase the prospects for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in developed and developing countries. We do not examine every nuance of the growing happiness literature, but we ...

  7. NASA Nice Climate Change Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frink, K.; Crocker, S.; Jones, W., III; Marshall, S. S.; Anuradha, D.; Stewart-Gurley, K.; Howard, E. M.; Hill, E.; Merriweather, E.

    2013-12-01

    Authors: 1 Kaiem Frink, 4 Sherry Crocker, 5 Willie Jones, III, 7 Sophia S.L. Marshall, 6 Anuadha Dujari 3 Ervin Howard 1 Kalota Stewart-Gurley 8 Edwinta Merriweathe Affiliation: 1. Mathematics & Computer Science, Virginia Union University, Richmond, VA, United States. 2. Mathematics & Computer Science, Elizabeth City State Univ, Elizabeth City, NC, United States. 3. Education, Elizabeth City State University, Elizabeth City, NC, United States. 4. College of Education, Fort Valley State University , Fort Valley, GA, United States. 5. Education, Tougaloo College, Jackson, MS, United States. 6. Mathematics, Delaware State University, Dover, DE, United States. 7. Education, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS, United States. 8. Education, Alabama Agricultural and Mechanical University, Huntsville, AL, United States. ABSTRACT: In this research initiative, the 2013-2014 NASA NICE workshop participants will present best educational practices for incorporating climate change pedagogy. The presentation will identify strategies to enhance instruction of pre-service teachers to aligned with K-12 Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) standards. The presentation of best practices should serve as a direct indicator to address pedagogical needs to include climate education within a K-12 curriculum Some of the strategies will include inquiry, direct instructions, and cooperative learning . At this particular workshop, we have learned about global climate change in regards to how this is going to impact our life. Participants have been charged to increase the scientific understanding of pre-service teachers education programs nationally to incorporate climate education lessons. These recommended practices will provide feasible instructional strategies that can be easily implemented and used to clarify possible misconceptions and ambiguities in scientific knowledge. Additionally, the presentation will promote an awareness to the many facets in which climate

  8. Arctic Warmth Becomes a Mid-Latitude Chill: Using Online Data To Teach Climate Change Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eichorn, David N.

    Climate change education is a growing sub-discipline of science education. This research reports on the use of the fundamental principles of atmospheric science to explain the potential impact of regional climate change across global latitudes. Since the Arctic is responding to climate change faster than any other place on earth, it offers us a real-time opportunity to teach the larger scale impacts of abrupt regional scale change. In this research I merged elements of both the atmospheric and climate sciences into an online course. The course uses principles of meteorology to teach climate change science and demonstrate cause and effect relationships within the atmosphere. Students learn how climate change in one part of the world impacts weather elsewhere through the use of animated and descriptive video lectures that explain basic atmospheric thermodynamics processes. This paper includes a lesson plan that shows how climatic warming in the Arctic causes colder US winter weather. Formative and summative evaluations taken from course evaluations and exams suggest using meteorology to teach climate change is an effective way to educate students in high school and undergraduate college level courses about cross latitudinal influences of climate change. Keywords: Climate Change, Global Warming, Arctic, Climate Literacy, Lesson Plan, Arctic Oscillation, Education

  9. Climate Change: a Theoretical Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Ishaq-ur Rahman

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate Change has been undoubtedly the most illustrious environmental issue since late 20th century. But neither the discourse merely emerged during that time, nor it was problematized in the same way since its onset. History of Climate Change discourse reveals that from a purely scientific concern it has turned into a public agenda that is nowadays more inclined to be development problem. Transformations have brought about a complete new paradigm every time. This article presents a theoretical analysis of the Climate Change discourse and to do so it captured the underlying philosophy of the issue using Thomas Kuhn’s well-known thesis of ‘paradigm shift’. In particular it discusses about the crisis that lead the issue towards transformations; explores key perspectives around the crisis thus representation of the issue in the environmental discourse over the time. While this paper establishes that with the beginning of the 21st century, the discourse entered into a new paradigm and will reach to a critical point by the end of 2012, it finally postulates some measures that the discourse might integrate with the existing to advance beyond that point.

  10. Climate change mitigation in Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mackenzie, G.A.; Turkson, J.K.; Davidson, O.R. [eds.

    1998-10-01

    The UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment (UCCEE) in conjunction with the Southern Centre for Energy and Environment (SCEE) hosted a conference on `Climate Change Mitigation in Africa` between 18 and 20 May. The Conference set out to address the following main objectives: to present to a wider audience the results of UNEP/GEF and related country studies; to present results of regional mitigation analysis; exchange of information with similar projects in the region; to expose countries to conceptual and methodological issues related to climate change mitigation; to provide input to national development using climate change related objectives. This volume contains reports of the presentations and discussions, which took place at the conference at Victoria Falls between 18 and 20 May 1998. Representatives of 11 country teams made presentations and in addition two sub-regions were discussed: the Maghreb region and SADC. The conference was attended by a total of 63 people, representing 22 African countries as well as international organisations. (EG)

  11. Climate change, environment and allergy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behrendt, Heidrun; Ring, Johannes

    2012-01-01

    Climate change with global warming is a physicometeorological fact that, among other aspects, will also affect human health. Apart from cardiovascular and infectious diseases, allergies seem to be at the forefront of the sequelae of climate change. By increasing temperature and concomitant increased CO(2) concentration, plant growth is affected in various ways leading to prolonged pollination periods in the northern hemisphere, as well as to the appearance of neophytes with allergenic properties, e.g. Ambrosia artemisiifolia (ragweed), in Central Europe. Because of the effects of environmental pollutants, which do not only act as irritants to skin and mucous membranes, allergen carriers such as pollen can be altered in the atmosphere and release allergens leading to allergen-containing aerosols in the ambient air. Pollen has been shown not only to be an allergen carrier, but also to release highly active lipid mediators (pollen-associated lipid mediators), which have proinflammatory and immunomodulating effects enhancing the initiation of allergy. Through the effects of climate change in the future, plant growth may be influenced in a way that more, new and altered pollens are produced, which may affect humans. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  12. Communicating Uncertainties on Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Planton, S.

    2009-09-01

    The term of uncertainty in common language is confusing since it is related in one of its most usual sense to what cannot be known in advance or what is subject to doubt. Its definition in mathematics is unambiguous but not widely shared. It is thus difficult to communicate on this notion through media to a wide public. From its scientific basis to the impact assessment, climate change issue is subject to a large number of sources of uncertainties. In this case, the definition of the term is close to its mathematical sense, but the diversity of disciplines involved in the analysis process implies a great diversity of approaches of the notion. Faced to this diversity of approaches, the issue of communicating uncertainties on climate change is thus a great challenge. It is also complicated by the diversity of the targets of the communication on climate change, from stakeholders and policy makers to a wide public. We will present the process chosen by the IPCC in order to communicate uncertainties in its assessment reports taking the example of the guidance note to lead authors of the fourth assessment report. Concerning the communication of uncertainties to a wide public, we will give some examples aiming at illustrating how to avoid the above-mentioned ambiguity when dealing with this kind of communication.

  13. Exploring the Multifaceted Topic of Climate Change in Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brey, J. A.; Kauffman, C.; Geer, I. W.; Mills, E. W.; Nugnes, K. A.; Stimach, A. E.

    2015-12-01

    As the effects of climate change become more profound, climate literacy becomes increasingly important. The American Meteorological Society (AMS) responds to this need through the publication of Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate. Both publications incorporate the latest scientific understandings of Earth's climate system from reports such as IPCC AR5 and the USGCRP's Third National Climate Assessment. Topic In Depth sections appear throughout each chapter and lead to more extensive, multidisciplinary information related to various topics. Additionally, each chapter closes with a For Further Exploration essay, which addresses specific topics that complement a chapter concept. Web Resources, which encourage additional exploration of chapter content, and Scientific Literature, from which chapter content was derived can also be found at the conclusion of each chapter. Our Changing Climate covers a breadth of topics, including the scientific principles that govern Earth's climate system and basic statistics and geospatial tools used to investigate the system. Released in fall 2015, Living With Our Changing Climate takes a more narrow approach and investigates human and ecosystem vulnerabilities to climate change, the role of energy choices in affecting climate, actions humans can take through adaption, mitigation, and policy to lessen vulnerabilities, and psychological and financial reasons behind climate change denial. While Living With Our Changing Climate is intended for programs looking to add a climate element into their curriculum, Our Changing Climate is part of the AMS Climate Studies course. In a 2015 survey of California University of Pennsylvania undergraduate students using Our Changing Climate, 82% found it comfortable to read and utilized its interactive components and resources. Both ebooks illuminate the multidisciplinary aspect of climate change, providing the opportunity for a more sustainable future.

  14. Mushroom fruiting and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kauserud, Håvard; Stige, Leif Christian; Vik, Jon Olav; Okland, Rune H; Høiland, Klaus; Stenseth, Nils Chr

    2008-03-11

    Many species of fungi produce ephemeral autumnal fruiting bodies to spread and multiply. Despite their attraction for mushroom pickers and their economic importance, little is known about the phenology of fruiting bodies. Using approximately 34,500 dated herbarium records we analyzed changes in the autumnal fruiting date of mushrooms in Norway over the period 1940-2006. We show that the time of fruiting has changed considerably over this time period, with an average delay in fruiting since 1980 of 12.9 days. The changes differ strongly between species and groups of species. Early-fruiting species have experienced a stronger delay than late fruiters, resulting in a more compressed fruiting season. There is also a geographic trend of earlier fruiting in the northern and more continental parts of Norway than in more southern and oceanic parts. Incorporating monthly precipitation and temperature variables into the analyses provides indications that increasing temperatures during autumn and winter months bring about significant delay of fruiting both in the same year and in the subsequent year. The recent changes in autumnal mushroom phenology coincide with the extension of the growing season caused by global climate change and are likely to continue under the current climate change scenario.

  15. Inter-hemispheric linkages in climate change: paleo-perspectives for future climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Shulmeister

    2006-01-01

    inter-annual signal dominant. Paleo-data demonstrate that the relative importance of the two periodicities changes through time, with longer periodicities dominant in the early Holocene. 3. The recognition of climate modulation of oscillatory systems by climate events. We examine the relationship of ENSO to a SH climate event, the Antarctic cold reversal (ACR, in the New Zealand region. We demonstrate that the onset of the ACR was associated with the apparent switching on of an ENSO signal in New Zealand. We infer that this related to enhanced zonal SW winds with the amplification of the pressure fields allowing an existing but weak ENSO signal to manifest itself. Teleconnections of this nature would be difficult to predict for future abrupt change as boundary conditions cannot readily be specified. Paleo-data are critical to predicting the teleconnections of future changes.

  16. Breaking the climate change communication deadlock

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corner, Adam; Groves, Christopher

    2014-09-01

    Climate change communication is trapped between the norms that govern scientific practice and the need to engage the public. Overcoming this tension requires new societal institutions where the science and politics of climate change can co-exist.

  17. Climate Change Effects on Groundwater Resources

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    C P Kumar; Surjeet Singh

    2015-01-01

    .... It poses uncertainties to the supply and management of water resources. Although climate change has been widely recognized, research on the effects of climate change on groundwater system is relatively limited...

  18. learning for Climate Change adaptation among Selected ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    understood the causes and effects of climate change as well as the content structure of learning ... climatic changes (Ministry of Tourism, Environment and Natural Resources [MTENR], 2010). ...... on India, Japan and other Eastern countries.

  19. Climate change and the Great Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeanne C. Chambers

    2008-01-01

    Climate change is expected to have significant impacts on the Great Basin by the mid-21st century. The following provides an overview of past and projected climate change for the globe and for the region.

  20. Transportation, Air Pollution, and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Search Contact Us Share Transportation, Air Pollution, and Climate Change Accomplishments & Successes View successes from the Clean Air ... and engines that cause harmful health effects and climate change. Overview of air pollution from transportation Carbon Pollution ...

  1. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Biodiversity Conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change threatens to create fundamental shifts in in the distributions and abundances of species. Given projected losses, increased emphasis on management for ecosystem resilience to help buffer fish and wildlife populations against climate change is emerging. Such effort...

  2. Himalayan Alpine Vegetation, Climate Change and Mitigation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Jan Salick; Suresh K. Ghimire; Zhendong Fang; Sangay Dema; Katie M. Konchar

    2014-01-01

    ...), China to document the effects of climate change on alpine plants and peoples. Data show that Himalayan alpine plants respond to environmental and climate change variables including elevation, precipitation, and biogeography...

  3. Climate Change | Page 23 | IDRC - International Development ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Home · Agriculture and Environment. Climate Change. Language English. Read more about Strengthening Local Agricultural Innovation Systems in Tanzania and Malawi. Language English. Read more about African Climate Change Fellowship. Language English. Read more about Adaptation aux changements ...

  4. Climate Change, Indoor Environment and Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change is becoming a driving force for improving energy efficiency because saving energy can help reduce the greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change. However, it is important to balance energy saving measures with ventilation...

  5. Protecting Your Forest from Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steven McNulty

    2009-01-01

    Climate change is already impacting our forests and the situation is ongoing. As a landowner, there are management tools that you can use to help reduce the likelihood that climate change will cause serious harm to your forest.

  6. Wildlife conservation in a changing climate

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Doak, Daniel F; Brodie, Jedediah F; Post, Eric S

    2012-01-01

    Bringing together leaders in the fields of climate change ecology, wildlife population dynamics, and environmental policy, this title examines the impacts of climate change on populations of terrestrial vertebrates...

  7. Understanding climate change: science, policy, and practice

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Burch, Sarah L; Harris, Sara E

    2014-01-01

    ..., and enabling climate change governance. The authors examine the connections between climate change and other pressing issues, such as human health, poverty, and other environmental problems, and they explore the ways that sustainable...

  8. Climate change indicators in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has published this report, Climate Change Indicators in the United States, to help readers interpret a set of important indicators to better understand climate change. The report presents 24 indicators, ...

  9. Climate change & extreme weather vulnerability assessment framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-01

    The Federal Highway Administrations (FHWAs) Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability : Assessment Framework is a guide for transportation agencies interested in assessing their vulnerability : to climate change and extreme weather event...

  10. Frogs and climate change in South Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Minter, Leslie Rory

    2011-01-01

    This article explores the relationship between frog declines and climate change, discusses the possible impact of climate change on the South African frog fauna, and highlights the necessity for increased research and monitoring of our frog populations.

  11. CLICHE: Education Games for Climate Change Countermeasures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fajar As'ari

    2017-10-01

    In this paper will discuss about education games: CLICHE. Game which explain concisely the cause and some action to minimizing climate change cause through digital game play that will has impact to lessening the climate change effects.

  12. The Impact of Climate Change on Biodiversity in Nepal: Current Knowledge, Lacunae, and Opportunities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aishwarya Bhattacharjee

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Nepal has an extreme altitudinal range from 60–8850 m with heterogeneous topography and distinct climatic zones. The country is considered a biodiversity hotspot, with nearly a quarter of the land area located in protected areas. Nepal and the surrounding Himalayan region are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of their abrupt ecological and climatic transitions. Tens of millions of people rely on the region’s ecosystem services, and observed and modeled warming trends predict increased climate extremes in the Himalayas. To study the ecological impacts of climate change in Nepal and inform adaptation planning, we review the literature on past, present, and predicted future climatic changes and their impacts on ecological diversity in Nepal. We found few studies focusing on organisms, while research on species and communities was more common. Most studies document or predict species range shifts and changes in community composition. Results of these few investigations highlight major lacunae in research regarding the effects of changing climate on species comprising the Himalayan biota. Further empirical work is needed at all levels of biological organization to build on information regarding direct ecological impacts of climatic changes in the region. Countries face an ever-increasing threat of climate change, and Nepal has strong physiographic, elevational, and climatic gradients that could provide a useful model for studying the effects of climate change on a mountainous, and highly biodiverse, area.

  13. Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, Philip K; Ericksen, Polly J; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J

    2014-11-01

    The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food systems, with a focus on the developing world. We present new analysis that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future. We consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future. Key knowledge and data gaps are highlighted. These include the timing and interactions of different climatic stresses on plant growth and development, particularly at higher temperatures, and the impacts on crops, livestock and farming systems of changes in climate variability and extreme events on pest-weed-disease complexes. We highlight the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers, and the need for investment in climate and environmental monitoring. Improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively the effects of climate variability and extreme events on human vulnerability and food security, particularly in agriculturally based developing countries facing the challenge of having to feed rapidly growing populations in the coming decades. © 2014 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Climate change, society issues and sustainable agriculture

    OpenAIRE

    Lichtfouse, Eric

    2009-01-01

    Despite its prediction 100 years ago by scientists studying CO2, man-made climate change has been officially recognised only in 2007 by the Nobel prize committee. Climate changes since the industrial revolution have already deeply impacted ecosystems. I report major impacts of climate change on waters, terrestrial ecosystems, agriculture, and economy in Europe. The lesson of the climate change story is that humans do not learn from scientists until it really hurts. Furthermore, all society is...

  15. The science of climate change.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doctor, R. D.

    1999-09-10

    A complex debate is underway on climate change linked to proposals for costly measures that would reshape our power grid. This confronts technical experts outside of the geophysical disciplines with extensive, but unfamiliar, data both supporting and refuting claims that serious action is warranted. For example, evidence is brought to the table from one group of astrophysicists concerned with sunspots--this group believes there is no issue man can manage; while another group of oceanographers concerned with the heat balance in the world's oceans are very alarmed at the loss of arctic ice. What is the evidence? In an effort to put some of these issues in perspective for a technical audience, without a background in geophysics, a brief survey will consider (1) an overview of the 300 years of scientific inquiry on man's relationship to climate; (2) a basic discussion of what is meant by the ''greenhouse'' and why there are concerns which include not only CO{sub 2}, but also CH{sub 4}, N{sub 2}O, and CFC's; (3) the geological record on CO{sub 2}--which likely was present at 1,000 times current levels when life began; (4) the solar luminosity and sunspot question; and (5) the current evidence for global climate change. We are at a juncture where we are attempting to understand the earth as an integrated dynamic system, rather than a collection of isolated components.

  16. Terrestrial ecosystems and climatic change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Emanuel, W.R. (Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)); Schimel, D.S. (Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (USA). Natural Resources Ecology Lab.)

    1990-01-01

    The structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems depend on climate, and in turn, ecosystems influence atmospheric composition and climate. A comprehensive, global model of terrestrial ecosystem dynamics is needed. A hierarchical approach appears advisable given currently available concepts, data, and formalisms. The organization of models can be based on the temporal scales involved. A rapidly responding model describes the processes associated with photosynthesis, including carbon, moisture, and heat exchange with the atmosphere. An intermediate model handles subannual variations that are closely associated with allocation and seasonal changes in productivity and decomposition. A slow response model describes plant growth and succession with associated element cycling over decades and centuries. These three levels of terrestrial models are linked through common specifications of environmental conditions and constrain each other. 58 refs.

  17. Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, Philip K; Ericksen, Polly J; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J

    2014-01-01

    The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food systems, with a focus on the developing world. We present new analysis that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future. We consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future. Key knowledge and data gaps are highlighted. These include the timing and interactions of different climatic stresses on plant growth and development, particularly at higher temperatures, and the impacts on crops, livestock and farming systems of changes in climate variability and extreme events on pest-weed-disease complexes. We highlight the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers, and the need for investment in climate and environmental monitoring. Improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively the effects of climate variability and extreme events on human vulnerability and food security, particularly in agriculturally based developing countries facing the challenge of having to feed rapidly growing populations in the coming decades. PMID:24668802

  18. Learning for Climate Change Adaptation among Selected ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This research was aimed at surveying perceptions of climate change and educational themes that would be contextually relevant for climate change adaptation. It locates within the United Nations' Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization's (UNESCO's) Balaclava recommendations on Climate Change Education for ...

  19. Climate Change | Page 5 | IDRC - International Development ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Home · Agriculture and Environment. Climate Change. Language English. Read more about Climate Change and Saltwater Intrusion along the Eastern Mediterranean: Socioeconomic Vulnerability. Language English. Read more about Agricultural Productivity and Climate Change in Arid and Semiarid Kenya. Language ...

  20. Climate Change | Page 32 | IDRC - International Development ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    As cities expand, climate change compounds the stress on poor communities already struggling with unplanned growth and few municipal services. Water access and sanitation are critical, as climate change affects the availability and quality of water. Researchers supported by IDRC's Climate Change and Water program ...

  1. An adaptive strategy to climate change

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    rsamir

    September 2008, Montpellier, France. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2007. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change. Switzerland. Mantovani, F., 2008. Climate Change and Water in the Arab World. The World Bank, Middle East and North Africa RegionSustainable Development Group.

  2. Climate Change and Water Adaptation Options | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    The impacts of climate change are increasing in their severity around the world. At greatest risk: vulnerable communities in developing countries. This project aims to share the practical climate change adaptation solutions arising from IDRC-funded research. IDRC, climate change, and water adaptation Since 2006, IDRC ...

  3. Climate Change Education for Mitigation and Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Allison

    2012-01-01

    This article makes the case for the education sector an untapped opportunity to combat climate change. It sets forth a definition of Climate Change Education for Sustainable Development that is comprehensive and multidisciplinary and asserts that it must not only include relevant content knowledge on climate change, environmental and social…

  4. Risk Communication, Moral Emotions and Climate Change.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roeser, S.

    2012-01-01

    This article discusses the potential role that emotions might play in enticing a lifestyle that diminishes climate change. Climate change is an important challenge for society. There is a growing consensus that climate change is due to our behavior, but few people are willing to significantly adapt

  5. Climate Change | Page 12 | IDRC - International Development ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Home · Agriculture and Environment. Climate Change. Language English. Read more about Using Demand Side Management to Adapt to Water Scarcity and Climate Change in the Saiss Basin (Morocco). Language English. Read more about Knowledge Sharing for Climate Change Adaptation in Africa. Language English.

  6. Climate Change Ignorance: An Unacceptable Legacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boon, Helen J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change effects will be most acutely felt by future generations. Recent prior research has shown that school students' knowledge of climate change science is very limited in rural Australia. The purpose of this study was to assess the capacity of preservice teachers and parents to transmit climate change information and understanding to…

  7. Climate change response framework overview: Chapter 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chris Swanston; Maria Janowiak; Patricia. Butler

    2012-01-01

    Managers currently face the immense challenge of anticipating the effects of climate change on forest ecosystems and then developing and applying management responses for adapting forests to future conditions. The Climate Change Response Framework (CCRF) is a highly collaborative approach to helping land managers understand the potential effects of climate change on...

  8. ACCESSING THE GLOCALITY OF CLIMATE CHANGE: A ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Prof. Adipala Ekwamu

    change's phenomena, problem of the ontologies of climate change's phenomena and problem of the logics of climate ..... policy. Realism is conflict-oriented and state- centered, dismissing law and morality”. In this regard the contribution of Anthony Giddens titled. The Politics of Climate Change is one of the dominant logic ...

  9. Climate Change and the Social Factor

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Lars Kjerulf; Jensen, Anne; Nielsen, Signe Svalgaard

    This poster reports from a explorative study about social aspects of climate change adaptation in Denmark. The aim of the project was to explore how people perceive and relate to climate change adaptation, what risks are associated with climate change and how are those risks balanced with other r...

  10. Conceptualizing Climate Change in the Context of a Climate System: Implications for Climate and Environmental Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepardson, Daniel P.; Niyogi, Dev; Roychoudhury, Anita; Hirsch, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    Today there is much interest in teaching secondary students about climate change. Much of this effort has focused directly on students' understanding of climate change. We hypothesize, however, that in order for students to understand climate change they must first understand climate as a system and how changes to this system due to both natural…

  11. Global climate change and life on earth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wyman, R.L. (ed.)

    1991-01-01

    The main theme of the conference was the consequence for life of the greenhouse effect and global climate change. Information on climate change is integrated with information on overpopulation, air pollution, ozone depletion species extinction, and habitat destruction. Descriptions are given of global climate change and the environmental changes that may be associated with it. The evidence for climate change is presented and general circulation models are described. Information provided by the GCMs to predict what the consequences may be, is used. The final chapters deal with the direct impacts of climate change on human beings and on policy response that are needed to stabilize the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

  12. Psychological research and global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clayton, Susan; Devine-Wright, Patrick; Stern, Paul C.; Whitmarsh, Lorraine; Carrico, Amanda; Steg, Linda; Swim, Janet; Bonnes, Mirilia

    2015-07-01

    Human behaviour is integral not only to causing global climate change but also to responding and adapting to it. Here, we argue that psychological research should inform efforts to address climate change, to avoid misunderstandings about human behaviour and motivations that can lead to ineffective or misguided policies. We review three key research areas: describing human perceptions of climate change; understanding and changing individual and household behaviour that drives climate change; and examining the human impacts of climate change and adaptation responses. Although much has been learned in these areas, we suggest important directions for further research.

  13. Changes in drought risk with climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mullan, B.; Porteous, A.; Wratt, D.; Hollis, M.

    2005-05-15

    As human activity adds more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, most climate change scenarios predict rising temperatures and decreased rainfall in the east of New Zealand. This means eastern parts of the country are expected to experience more droughts as the 21st century goes on. Our report seeks for the first time to define the possible range of changes in future drought risk. This report was commissioned because of the importance of drought for agriculture and water resources. The report aims to give central and local government and the agriculture sector an indication of how big future drought changes could be in the various regions. This information can be relevant in managing long-term water resources and land use, including planning for irrigation schemes.

  14. Physiological ecology meets climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozinovic, Francisco; Pörtner, Hans-Otto

    2015-03-01

    In this article, we pointed out that understanding the physiology of differential climate change effects on organisms is one of the many urgent challenges faced in ecology and evolutionary biology. We explore how physiological ecology can contribute to a holistic view of climate change impacts on organisms and ecosystems and their evolutionary responses. We suggest that theoretical and experimental efforts not only need to improve our understanding of thermal limits to organisms, but also to consider multiple stressors both on land and in the oceans. As an example, we discuss recent efforts to understand the effects of various global change drivers on aquatic ectotherms in the field that led to the development of the concept of oxygen and capacity limited thermal tolerance (OCLTT) as a framework integrating various drivers and linking organisational levels from ecosystem to organism, tissue, cell, and molecules. We suggest seven core objectives of a comprehensive research program comprising the interplay among physiological, ecological, and evolutionary approaches for both aquatic and terrestrial organisms. While studies of individual aspects are already underway in many laboratories worldwide, integration of these findings into conceptual frameworks is needed not only within one organism group such as animals but also across organism domains such as Archaea, Bacteria, and Eukarya. Indeed, development of unifying concepts is relevant for interpreting existing and future findings in a coherent way and for projecting the future ecological and evolutionary effects of climate change on functional biodiversity. We also suggest that OCLTT may in the end and from an evolutionary point of view, be able to explain the limited thermal tolerance of metazoans when compared to other organisms.

  15. Overview of different aspects of climate change effects on soils

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qafoku, Nikolla P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2014-08-01

    Climate change [i.e., high atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations (≥400 ppm); increasing air temperatures (2-4°C or greater); significant and/or abrupt changes in daily, seasonal, and inter-annual temperature; changes in the wet/dry cycles; intensive rainfall and/or heavy storms; extended periods of drought; extreme frost; heat waves and increased fire frequency] is and will significantly affect soil properties and fertility, water resources, food quantity and quality, and environmental quality. Biotic processes that consume atmospheric CO2 and create organic carbon (C) that is either reprocessed to CO2 or stored in soils, are the subject of active current investigations with great concern over the influence of climate change. In addition, abiotic C cycling and its influence on the inorganic C pool in soils is a fundamental global process in which acidic atmospheric CO2 participates in the weathering of carbonate and silicate minerals, ultimately delivering bicarbonate and Ca2+ or other cations that precipitate in the form of carbonates in soils or are transported to the rivers, lakes, and oceans. Soil responses to climate change will be complex, and there are many uncertainties and unresolved issues. The objective of the review is to initiate and further stimulate a discussion about some important and challenging aspects of climate-change effects on soils, such as accelerated weathering of soil minerals and resulting C and elemental fluxes in and out of soils, soil/geo-engineering methods used to increase C sequestration in soils, soil organic matter (SOM) protection, transformation and mineralization, and SOM temperature sensitivity. This review reports recent discoveries and identifies key research needs required to understand the effects of climate change on soils.

  16. A common-sense climate index: Is climate changing noticeably?

    OpenAIRE

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Glascoe, Jay; Ruedy, Reto

    1998-01-01

    We propose an index of climate change based on practical climate indicators such as heating degree days and the frequency of intense precipitation. We find that in most regions the index is positive, the sense predicted to accompany global warming. In a few regions, especially in Asia and western North America, the index indicates that climate change should be apparent already, but in most places climate trends are too small to stand out above year-to-year variability. The climate index is st...

  17. Climate change: linking traditional and scientific knowledge

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Riewe, R. R. (Roderick R.); Oakes, Jill E. (Jill Elizabeth)

    2006-01-01

    This book includes papers written by over 50 community experts and scientists addressing theoretical concerns, knowledge transfer, adapting to climate change, implications of changing weather, water...

  18. Can beaches survive climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L.; Limber, Patrick W.

    2017-01-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is driving sea level rise, leading to numerous impacts on the coastal zone, such as increased coastal flooding, beach erosion, cliff failure, saltwater intrusion in aquifers, and groundwater inundation. Many beaches around the world are currently experiencing chronic erosion as a result of gradual, present-day rates of sea level rise (about 3 mm/year) and human-driven restrictions in sand supply (e.g., harbor dredging and river damming). Accelerated sea level rise threatens to worsen coastal erosion and challenge the very existence of natural beaches throughout the world. Understanding and predicting the rates of sea level rise and coastal erosion depends on integrating data on natural systems with computer simulations. Although many computer modeling approaches are available to simulate shoreline change, few are capable of making reliable long-term predictions needed for full adaption or to enhance resilience. Recent advancements have allowed convincing decadal to centennial-scale predictions of shoreline evolution. For example, along 500 km of the Southern California coast, a new model featuring data assimilation predicts that up to 67% of beaches may completely erode by 2100 without large-scale human interventions. In spite of recent advancements, coastal evolution models must continue to improve in their theoretical framework, quantification of accuracy and uncertainty, computational efficiency, predictive capability, and integration with observed data, in order to meet the scientific and engineering challenges produced by a changing climate.

  19. Can beaches survive climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L.; Limber, Patrick

    2017-04-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is driving sea level rise, leading to numerous impacts on the coastal zone, such as increased coastal flooding, beach erosion, cliff failure, saltwater intrusion in aquifers, and groundwater inundation. Many beaches around the world are currently experiencing chronic erosion as a result of gradual, present-day rates of sea level rise (about 3 mm/year) and human-driven restrictions in sand supply (e.g., harbor dredging and river damming). Accelerated sea level rise threatens to worsen coastal erosion and challenge the very existence of natural beaches throughout the world. Understanding and predicting the rates of sea level rise and coastal erosion depends on integrating data on natural systems with computer simulations. Although many computer modeling approaches are available to simulate shoreline change, few are capable of making reliable long-term predictions needed for full adaption or to enhance resilience. Recent advancements have allowed convincing decadal to centennial-scale predictions of shoreline evolution. For example, along 500 km of the Southern California coast, a new model featuring data assimilation predicts that up to 67% of beaches may completely erode by 2100 without large-scale human interventions. In spite of recent advancements, coastal evolution models must continue to improve in their theoretical framework, quantification of accuracy and uncertainty, computational efficiency, predictive capability, and integration with observed data, in order to meet the scientific and engineering challenges produced by a changing climate.

  20. Regional climate change mitigation analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rowlands, Ian H. [UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment, and Univ. of Waterloo (Canada)

    1998-10-01

    The purpose of this paper is to explore some of the key methodological issues that arise from an analysis of regional climate change mitigation options. The rationale for any analysis of regional mitigation activities, emphasising both the theoretical attractiveness and the existing political encouragement and the methodology that has been developed are reviewed. The differences arising from the fact that mitigation analyses have been taken from the level of the national - where the majority of the work has been completed to date - to the level of the international - that is, the `regional` - will be especially highlighted. (EG)

  1. Renewable energy and climate change

    CERN Document Server

    Quaschning, Volker

    2010-01-01

    This dazzling introductory textbook encompasses the full range of today's important renewable energy technologies. Solar thermal, photovoltaic, wind, hydro, biomass and geothermal energy receive balanced treatment with one exciting and informative chapter devoted to each. As well as a complete overview of these state-of-the-art technologies, the chapters provide: clear analysis on their development potentials; an evaluation of the economic aspects involved; concrete guidance for practical implementation; how to reduce your own energy waste. If we do not act now to stop climate change, the cons.

  2. Groundwater and climate change research scoping study

    OpenAIRE

    Jackson, C.R.; Cheetham, M.; Guha, P.

    2006-01-01

    This scoping study has reviewed much of the published literature in the field of climate change and groundwater research. Whilst it is not exhaustive with regard to groundwater quality issues, most of the published literature relating to climate change and groundwater resources, particularly in the UK, is covered. Further work is required to identify current research needs relating to the effects of climate change on groundwater quality. The study of the effects of climate chan...

  3. The challenges of communicating climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emiliano Feresin

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The climate change issue has become increasingly present in our society in the last decade and central also to communication studies. In the e-book “Communicating Climate Change: Discourses, Mediations and Perceptions”, edited by Anabela Carvalho, various scholars investigate how climate change challenges communication by looking at three main aspects: the discourses of a variety of social actors on climate change; the reconstruction of those discourses in the media; the citizens’ perceptions, understandings and attitudes in relation to climate change.

  4. Climate change and nutrition: creating a climate for nutrition security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tirado, M C; Crahay, P; Mahy, L; Zanev, C; Neira, M; Msangi, S; Brown, R; Scaramella, C; Costa Coitinho, D; Müller, A

    2013-12-01

    Climate change further exacerbates the enormous existing burden of undernutrition. It affects food and nutrition security and undermines current efforts to reduce hunger and promote nutrition. Undernutrition in turn undermines climate resilience and the coping strategies of vulnerable populations. The objectives of this paper are to identify and undertake a cross-sectoral analysis of the impacts of climate change on nutrition security and the existing mechanisms, strategies, and policies to address them. A cross-sectoral analysis of the impacts of climate change on nutrition security and the mechanisms and policies to address them was guided by an analytical framework focused on the three 'underlying causes' of undernutrition: 1) household food access, 2) maternal and child care and feeding practices, 3) environmental health and health access. The analytical framework includes the interactions of the three underlying causes of undernutrition with climate change,vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation. Within broad efforts on climate change mitigation and adaptation and climate-resilient development, a combination of nutrition-sensitive adaptation and mitigation measures, climate-resilient and nutrition-sensitive agricultural development, social protection, improved maternal and child care and health, nutrition-sensitive risk reduction and management, community development measures, nutrition-smart investments, increased policy coherence, and institutional and cross-sectoral collaboration are proposed as a means to address the impacts of climate change to food and nutrition security. This paper proposes policy directions to address nutrition in the climate change agenda and recommendations for consideration by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Nutrition and health stakeholders need to be engaged in key climate change adaptation and mitigation initiatives, including science-based assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC

  5. Signs of climate change in Nordic nature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikkelsen, Maria; Jensen, Trine Susanne; Normander, Bo

    are occurring concurrently and on multiple scales. Important signs of climate change include: pollen and growing seasons beginning earlier; fish stocks shifting northwards; bird populations adapting to a changing climate; sensitive natural phenomena such as palsa mires declining in distribution; and polar bears......Not only is the Earth's climate changing, our natural world is also being affected by the impact of rising temperatures and changes in climatic conditions. In order to track climate-related changes in Nordic ecosystems, we have identified a number of climate change sensitive indicators. We present...... a catalogue of 14 indicator-based signs that demonstrate the impact of climate change on terrestrial, marine and freshwater ecosystems in the different bio-geographical zones of the Nordic region. The indicators have been identified using a systematic and quality, criteria based approach to discern and select...

  6. Challenges and solutions for climate change

    CERN Document Server

    Gaast, Wytze

    2012-01-01

    The latest scientific knowledge on climate change indicates that higher greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere through unchecked emissions will provoke severe climate change and ocean acidification threatening environmental structures on which humanity relies. Climate change therefore poses major socio-economic, technical and environmental challenges which will have serious impacts on countries’ pathways towards sustainable development. As a result, climate change and sustainable development have increasingly become interlinked. A changing climate makes achieving Millennium Development Goals more difficult and expensive, so there is every reason to achieve development goals with low greenhouse gas emissions. This leads to the following five challenges discussed by Challenges and Solutions for Climate Change: To place climate negotiations in the wider context of sustainability, equity and social change so that development benefits can be maximised at the same time as decreasing greenhouse gas emissi...

  7. On climate change and economic growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frankhauser, S.; Tol, R.S.J.

    2005-01-01

    The economic impact of climate change is usually measured as the extent to which the climate of a given period affects social welfare in that period. This static approach ignores the dynamic effects through which climate change may affect economic growth and hence future welfare. In this paper we

  8. Climate Change Adaptation in the Water Sector

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ludwig, F.; Kabat, P.; Schaik, van H.; Valk, van der M.

    2009-01-01

    Today’s climate variability already has a large impact on water supply and protection. Millions of people are affected every year by droughts and floods. Future climate change is likely to make things worse. Many people within the water sector are aware that climate change is affecting water

  9. Climate change and cashew (Anacardium occidentale L ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    217 RESULTS ... 2Integrated Soil and Crop Management Research Unit, Laboratory of Soil Sciences, School of Science and. Technic of Crop ... This study aimed at analyzing the perceptions of cashew producers of the climate change, climate change effect on ... Benin are the most vulnerable to climate risks: drought, late and ...

  10. Climate change – a critical emerging issue

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Archer van Garderen, Emma RM

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Science on observed trends in climate and projected future climate change has evolved substantially in the last few years. Different sub-regions of South Africa have shown, and are likely to continue to show, distinct climate changes. Surface air...

  11. Kingdom of Morocco : Climate Change Strategy Notes

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2013-01-01

    This volume contains the individual reports produced under the World Bank program of economic and sector work (P-ESW) on supporting Morocco's climate change strategy. In 2008 the Government of Morocco asked the Bank's analytical and technical assistance on the policy implications of climate change. An initial policy note outlining the main drivers of climate vulnerability, as well as the r...

  12. Climate change and poverty -- an analytical framework

    OpenAIRE

    Hallegatte, Stephane; Bangalore, Mook; Bonzanigo, Laura; Fay, Marianne; Narloch, Ulf; Rozenberg, Julie; Vogt-Schilb, Adrien

    2014-01-01

    Climate change and climate policies will affect poverty reduction efforts through direct and immediate impacts on the poor and by affecting factors that condition poverty reduction, such as economic growth. This paper explores this relation between climate change and policies and poverty outcomes by examining three questions: the (static) impact on poor people's livelihood and well-being; ...

  13. Turning points in climate change adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Werners, Saskia Elisabeth; Slobbe, van Erik; Bölscher, Tobias; Oost, Albert; Pfenninger, Stefan; Trombi, Giacomo; Bindi, Marco; Moriondo, Marco

    2015-01-01

    Concerned decision makers increasingly pose questions as to whether current management practices are able to cope with climate change and increased climate variability. This signifies a shift in the framing of climate change from asking what its potential impacts are to asking whether it induces

  14. Turning points in climate change adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Werners, Saskia Elisabeth; van Slobbe, Erik; Bölscher, Tobias; Oost, Albert; Pfenninger, Stefan; Trombi, Giacomo; Bindi, Marco; Moriondo, Marco

    2015-01-01

    Concerned decision makers increasingly pose questions as to whether current management practices are able to cope with climate change and increased climate variability. This signifies a shift in the framing of climate change from asking what its potential impacts are to asking whether it induces

  15. Science Teachers' Perspectives about Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Vaille

    2012-01-01

    Climate change and its effects are likely to present challenging problems for future generations of young people. It is important for Australian students to understand the mechanisms and consequences of climate change. If students are to develop a sophisticated understanding, then science teachers need to be well-informed about climate change…

  16. Contributions of Psychology to Limiting Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stern, Paul C.

    2011-01-01

    Psychology can make a significant contribution to limiting the magnitude of climate change by improving understanding of human behaviors that drive climate change and human reactions to climate-related technologies and policies, and by turning that understanding into effective interventions. This article develops a framework for psychological…

  17. Climate change. Scientific background and process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alfsen, Knut H.; Fuglestvedt, Jan; Seip, Hans Martin; Skodvin, Tora

    1999-07-01

    The paper describes briefly the natural and man-made forces behind climate change and outlines climate variations in the past. It also discusses the future impact of anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases, and the background, organisation and functioning of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

  18. Climate change and the ethics of discounting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Davidson, M.D.

    2015-01-01

    Climate policy-making requires a balancing, however rudimentary, of the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions against the benefits of reduced risks of climate change. Since those creating and those facing the risks of climate change belong to different generations, striking the balance is

  19. Climate change: believing and seeing implies adapting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blennow, Kristina; Persson, Johannes; Tomé, Margarida; Hanewinkel, Marc

    2012-01-01

    Knowledge of factors that trigger human response to climate change is crucial for effective climate change policy communication. Climate change has been claimed to have low salience as a risk issue because it cannot be directly experienced. Still, personal factors such as strength of belief in local effects of climate change have been shown to correlate strongly with responses to climate change and there is a growing literature on the hypothesis that personal experience of climate change (and/or its effects) explains responses to climate change. Here we provide, using survey data from 845 private forest owners operating in a wide range of bio-climatic as well as economic-social-political structures in a latitudinal gradient across Europe, the first evidence that the personal strength of belief and perception of local effects of climate change, highly significantly explain human responses to climate change. A logistic regression model was fitted to the two variables, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.07 (SD ± 0.01) to 0.81 (SD ± 0.03) for self-reported adaptive measures taken. Adding socio-demographic variables improved the fit, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.022 (SD ± 0.008) to 0.91 (SD ± 0.02). We conclude that to explain and predict adaptation to climate change, the combination of personal experience and belief must be considered.

  20. Climate change: believing and seeing implies adapting.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristina Blennow

    Full Text Available Knowledge of factors that trigger human response to climate change is crucial for effective climate change policy communication. Climate change has been claimed to have low salience as a risk issue because it cannot be directly experienced. Still, personal factors such as strength of belief in local effects of climate change have been shown to correlate strongly with responses to climate change and there is a growing literature on the hypothesis that personal experience of climate change (and/or its effects explains responses to climate change. Here we provide, using survey data from 845 private forest owners operating in a wide range of bio-climatic as well as economic-social-political structures in a latitudinal gradient across Europe, the first evidence that the personal strength of belief and perception of local effects of climate change, highly significantly explain human responses to climate change. A logistic regression model was fitted to the two variables, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.07 (SD ± 0.01 to 0.81 (SD ± 0.03 for self-reported adaptive measures taken. Adding socio-demographic variables improved the fit, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.022 (SD ± 0.008 to 0.91 (SD ± 0.02. We conclude that to explain and predict adaptation to climate change, the combination of personal experience and belief must be considered.

  1. Rethinking climate change as a security threat

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoch, Corinne

    2011-10-15

    Once upon a time climate change was a strictly environment and development issue. Today it has become a matter of national and international security. Efforts to link climate change with violent conflict may not be based on solid evidence, but they have certainly captured the attention of governments. They have played a vital role in raising the much-needed awareness of climate change as an issue that deserves global action. But at what cost? Focusing on climate change as a security threat alone risks devolving humanitarian responsibilities to the military, ignoring key challenges and losing sight of those climate-vulnerable communities that stand most in need of protection.

  2. Factsheet: Climate Change and Harmful Algal Blooms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change is predicted to change many environmental conditions that could affect the properties of fresh and marine waters. These changes could favor the growth of harmful algal blooms and habitat changes.

  3. Climate Change | Page 34 | IDRC - International Development ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    global warming” appeared in headlines, Canada's International Development Research Centre (IDRC) was supporting research on climate change. We recognized, early on, that a warming climate threatens not just the physical environment, ...

  4. Pacific Islands Climate Change Virtual Library

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Virtual Library provides access to web based climate variability and climate change information and tools relevant to the Pacific Islands including case studies,...

  5. Climate Change | Page 35 | IDRC - International Development ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    global warming” appeared in headlines, Canada's International Development Research Centre (IDRC) was supporting research on climate change. We recognized, early on, that a warming climate threatens not just the physical environment, ...

  6. Climate Change: Science and Policy Implications

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Leggett, Jane A

    2007-01-01

    .... During the 20th Century, some areas became wetter while others experienced more drought. Most climate scientists conclude that humans have induced a large part of the climate change since the 1970s...

  7. Sigtuna Think Piece 2 Climate Capabilities and Climate Change ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This think piece introduces the views of Amartya Sen, Martha Nussbaum and others on the capabilities approach to climate change ethics research. Furthermore, it suggests that the capabilities approach can help climate change research in identifying if, and if so which, intrinsic values of people's wellbeing are vulnerable ...

  8. The human factor: climate change and climate communication

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjærgaard, Peter C.

    2011-01-01

    Reprint and translation of the article: “Den menneskelige faktor” published in the magazine Klima&Tilpasning Publisher: “Coordination unit for Research in Climate Change Adaptation” (KFT)......Reprint and translation of the article: “Den menneskelige faktor” published in the magazine Klima&Tilpasning Publisher: “Coordination unit for Research in Climate Change Adaptation” (KFT)...

  9. Climate Cases: Learning about Student Conceptualizations of Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tierney, Benjamin P.

    2013-01-01

    The complex topic of global climate change continues to be a challenging yet important topic among science educators and researchers. This mixed methods study adds to the growing research by investigating student conceptions of climate change from a system theory perspective (Von Bertalanffy, 1968) by asking the question, "How do differences…

  10. Climate Change Education in Earth System Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hänsel, Stephanie; Matschullat, Jörg

    2013-04-01

    The course "Atmospheric Research - Climate Change" is offered to master Earth System Science students within the specialisation "Climate and Environment" at the Technical University Bergakademie Freiberg. This module takes a comprehensive approach to climate sciences, reaching from the natural sciences background of climate change via the social components of the issue to the statistical analysis of changes in climate parameters. The course aims at qualifying the students to structure the physical and chemical basics of the climate system including relevant feedbacks. The students can evaluate relevant drivers of climate variability and change on various temporal and spatial scales and can transform knowledge from climate history to the present and the future. Special focus is given to the assessment of uncertainties related to climate observations and projections as well as the specific challenges of extreme weather and climate events. At the end of the course the students are able to critically reflect and evaluate climate change related results of scientific studies and related issues in media. The course is divided into two parts - "Climate Change" and "Climate Data Analysis" and encompasses two lectures, one seminar and one exercise. The weekly "Climate change" lecture transmits the physical and chemical background for climate variation and change. (Pre)historical, observed and projected climate changes and their effects on various sectors are being introduced and discussed regarding their implications for society, economics, ecology and politics. The related seminar presents and discusses the multiple reasons for controversy in climate change issues, based on various texts. Students train the presentation of scientific content and the discussion of climate change aspects. The biweekly lecture on "Climate data analysis" introduces the most relevant statistical tools and methods in climate science. Starting with checking data quality via tools of exploratory

  11. Climate Change and Children's Health: A Commentary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanley, Fiona; Farrant, Brad

    2015-10-15

    This commentary describes the likely impacts on children's health and wellbeing from climate change, based on the solid science of environmental child health. It describes likely climate change scenarios, why children are more vulnerable than older people to these changes, and what to expect in terms of diseases (e.g., infections, asthma) and problems (e.g., malnutrition, mental illness). The common antecedents of climate change and other detrimental changes to our society mean that in combatting them (such as excessive consumption and greed), we may not only reduce the harmful effects of climate change but also work towards a better society overall-one that values its children and their futures.

  12. Cenozoic climate change influences mammalian evolutionary dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Figueirido, Borja; Janis, Christine M.; Pérez-Claros, Juan A.; Renzi, Miquel de; Palmqvist, Paul

    2011-01-01

    Global climate change is having profound impacts on the natural world. However, climate influence on faunal dynamics at macroevolutionary scales remains poorly understood. In this paper we investigate the influence of climate over deep time on the diversity patterns of Cenozoic North American mammals. We use factor analysis to identify temporally correlated assemblages of taxa, or major evolutionary faunas that we can then study in relation to climatic change over the past 65 million years. T...

  13. Changes of Extreme Climate Events in Latvia

    OpenAIRE

    Avotniece, Z; Klavins, M; Rodinovs, V

    2012-01-01

    Extreme climate events are increasingly recognized as a threat to human health, agriculture, forestry and other sectors. To assess the occurrence and impacts of extreme climate events, we have investigated the changes of indexes characterizing positive and negative temperature extremes and extreme precipitation as well as the spatial heterogeneity of extreme climate events in Latvia. Trend analysis of long–term changes in the frequency of extreme climate events demonst...

  14. Economic Consequences Of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szlávik, János; Füle, Miklós

    2009-07-01

    Even though the climate conflict resulting from green houses gases (GHG) emissions was evident by the Nineties and the well-known agreements made, their enforcement is more difficult than that of other environmental agreements. That is because measures to reduce GHG emissions interfere with the heart of the economy and the market: energy (in a broader sense than the energy sector as defined by statistics) and economical growth. Analyzing the environmental policy responses to climate change the conclusion is that GHG emission reduction can only be achieved through intensive environmental policy. While extensive environmental protection complements production horizontally, intensive environmental protection integrates into production and the environment vertically. The latter eliminates the source of the pollution, preventing damage. It utilizes the biochemical processes and self-purification of the natural environment as well as technical development which not only aims to produce state-of-the-art goods, but to make production more environmentally friendly, securing a desired environmental state. While in extensive environmental protection the intervention comes from the outside for creating environmental balance, in intensive environmental protection the system recreates this balance itself. Instead of dealing with the consequences and the polluter pays principle, the emphasis is on prevention. It is important to emphasize that climate strategy decisions have complex effects regarding the aspects of sustainability (economical, social, ecological). Therefore, all decisions are political. At present, and in the near future, market economy decisions have little to do with sustainability values under normal circumstances. Taking social and ecological interests into consideration can only be successful through strategic political aims.

  15. Climate Change and Health: Nurses as Drivers of Climate Action

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cara Cook

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Changes to Earth’s climate are occurring globally at unprecedented rates with significant impacts to human and population health, including increased likelihood of mental health illnesses, food and water insecurity, insect-borne and heat-related illnesses, and respiratory diseases. Those in the health sector are seeing the challenges patients and community members are experiencing as a result of current and projected climate threats. Health professionals, including nurses, have an opportunity to lead the charge to significantly improve society’s response to climate change and foster the strategies needed to promote health. This article highlights the current work of the Alliance of Nurses for Healthy Environments, a national nursing organization focused solely on environmental health concerns, in inspiring and empowering nurses across the country to engage in action to reduce their climate impact, move climate solutions forward, and improve the ability of health care institutions and communities to respond to the health impacts of climate change.

  16. Climate change effects for phenological processes

    OpenAIRE

    Lilla Dede

    2010-01-01

    Climate change may shift dates of phenological phase of plants. We can even demonstrate changes in plant growth due to climate change by model simulations. Earth warming will accelerate appearance of the phenological phases earlier. However, not only temperature can affect on that, but some other meteorological factors as well.The theoretical implications of climate change is the main goal of the present work using strategic modeling and a 140 years long temperature data set. Analysis of the ...

  17. Understanding Abrupt, Natural Climate Variability Post-Industrial Revolution from the Subtropical Eastern Pacific: A Novel High Resolution Alkenone-derived Sea Surface Temperature Record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, C. S.; O'Mara, N. A.; Herbert, T.; Abella-Gutiérrez, J. L.; Herguera, J. C.

    2015-12-01

    Despite the ocean's importance in global biogeochemical feedbacks and heat storage, there is still a paucity of decadally-resolved sea surface temperature (SST) records to complement lacustrine and dendrological records of recent paleoclimate. Natural climate variability on multidecadal timescales is dominated by internal ocean circulation dynamics and feedbacks, and it is therefore imperative to employ marine proxies to reconstruct high resolution climate change. The timescales of this ocean-induced natural climate variability can be broken down into a few characteristic climate modes. Pressing questions about these modes include their stationarity in frequency and amplitude over time, in addition to the hypothesis that anthropogenic climate change has altered their behavior in comparison to natural variability. To pursue these questions, we must discern and analyze suitable climate archives in regions where modes of interest dominate modern climate variability. The region of Baja California, Mexico exhibits exceptional teleconnection to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Local, dramatic effects of ENSO and PDO on the marine biology and economy underline the importance of regional paleoclimate records from the Baja peninsula. Here, we present a high-resolution alkenone-derived SST reconstruction from the Industrial Revolution through the year 2000 by analysis of laminated box and Kasten sediment cores at Site PCM 00-78 (25.18°N, 112.66°W) in the subtropical eastern Pacific at a depth of 540 meters. Our SST record corresponds with NOAA extended reconstructed sea surface temperature, providing a robust basis for organic geochemical marine climatic reconstructions on timescales usually accessible only through speleothems, coral density bands, tree rings, and the like. Accordingly, based on this comparison to the historical data we expect our SST record may provide a more robust record of inter and multidecadal

  18. Climate Trends and Farmers' Perceptions of Climate Change in Zambia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulenga, Brian P; Wineman, Ayala; Sitko, Nicholas J

    2017-02-01

    A number of studies use meteorological records to analyze climate trends and assess the impact of climate change on agricultural yields. While these provide quantitative evidence on climate trends and the likely effects thereof, they incorporate limited qualitative analysis of farmers' perceptions of climate change and/or variability. The present study builds on the quantitative methods used elsewhere to analyze climate trends, and in addition compares local narratives of climate change with evidence found in meteorological records in Zambia. Farmers offer remarkably consistent reports of a rainy season that is growing shorter and less predictable. For some climate parameters-notably, rising average temperature-there is a clear overlap between farmers' observations and patterns found in the meteorological records. However, the data do not support the perception that the rainy season used to begin earlier, and we generally do not detect a reported increase in the frequency of dry spells. Several explanations for these discrepancies are offered. Further, we provide policy recommendations to help farmers adapt to climate change/variability, as well as suggestions to shape future climate change policies, programs, and research in developing countries.

  19. Covering Climate Change in Wikipedia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arritt, R. W.; Connolley, W.; Ramjohn, I.; Schulz, S.; Wickert, A. D.

    2010-12-01

    The first hit in an internet search for "global warming" using any of the three leading search engines (Google, Bing, or Yahoo) is the article "Global warming" in the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. The article garners about half a million page views per month. In addition to the site's visibility with the public, Wikipedia's articles on climate-related topics are widely referenced by policymakers, media outlets, and academia. Despite the site's strong influence on public understanding of science, few geoscientists actively participate in Wikipedia, with the result that the community that edits these articles is mostly composed of individuals with little or no expertise in the topic at hand. In this presentation we discuss how geoscientists can help shape public understanding of science by contributing to Wikipedia. Although Wikipedia prides itself on being "the encyclopedia that anyone can edit," the site has policies regarding contributions and behavior that can be pitfalls for newcomers. This presentation is intended as a guide for the geoscience community in contributing to information about climate change in this widely-used reference.

  20. Feframing Climate Change for Environmental Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weems, Caitlin; Subramaniam, Prithwi Raj

    2017-04-01

    Repeated warnings by the scientific community on the dire consequences of climate change through global warming to the ecology and sustenance of our planet have not been give appropriate attention by the U.S. public. Research has shown that climate change is responsible for catastrophic weather occurrences--such as floods, tornadoes, hurricanes, and heat waves--resulting in environmental and public health issues. The purpose of this report is to examine factors influencing public views on climate change. Theoretical and political perspectives are examined to unpack opinions held by the public in the U.S. on climate change. The Health Belief Model is used as an example to showcase the efficacy of an individual behavior change program in providing the synergy to understand climate change at the microlevel. The concept of reframing is discussed as a strategy to alter how the public views climate change.

  1. Holocene climate changes in the Cape Hatteras region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naughton, F.; Keigwin, L. D.; Peteet, D. M.; Desprat, S.; Oliveira, D.; Abrantes, F.

    2013-12-01

    In the last century many studies have been done in various naturally occurring archives to understand the nature, timing and causes of Holocene natural climate oscillations. Most of the available Holocene climatic reconstructions are however, not based on a direct comparison of terrestrial, marine and ice records making it difficult to obtain an accurate understanding of the interactions of the atmosphere-ocean-land systems and their relationship in global climate variability. Few studies based on direct sea land comparison have been reported for some key areas of the eastern North Atlantic but almost none in the western North Atlantic. Here we present a direct comparison between terrestrial (pollen) and marine (planktonic δ18O) proxies from a well dated (ten AMS 14C dates on planktonic foraminifera and seaweed) slope core (KNR 178-2 JPC 32), retrieved close to Cape Hatteras (35°58.58'N, 74°42.77'W, 1006 m). This study provides information on eastern North America vegetation and on the northwestern Atlantic sea surface response to both Holocene long-term and rapid climate changes. Five intervals, marked mainly by changes in temperate trees are associated with long term climate shifts (12000-9150 ka; 9150-7250 ka; 7250-5350 ka; 5350-2800 ka; 2800-700 ka). Over these intervals, several abrupt cooling events are noted, as well as several indications of shifts in moisture. The comparison of our data with those available and unpublished records from several key sites of the North Atlantic region, gives insights into the nature, timing and causes of Holocene climate oscillations in the North Atlantic region and in particular off Cape Hatteras.

  2. V346 Centauri: Early-type eclipsing binary with apsidal motion and abrupt change of orbital period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayer, Pavel; Harmanec, Petr; Wolf, Marek; Nemravová, Jana; Prša, Andrej; Frémat, Yves; Zejda, Miloslav; Liška, Jiři; Juryšek, Jakub; Hoňková, Kateřina; Mašek, Martin

    2016-06-01

    New physical elements of the early B-type eclipsing binary V346 Cen are derived using the HARPS spectra downloaded from the ESO archive and also numerous photometric observations from various sources. A model of the observed times of primary and secondary minima that fits them best is a combination of the apsidal motion and an abrupt decrease in the orbital period from 6.^d322123 to 6.^d321843 (shortening by 24 s), which occurred somewhere around JD 2 439 000. Assumption of a secularly decreasing orbital period provides a significantly worse fit. Local times of minima and the final solution of the light curve were obtained with the program PHOEBE. Radial velocities of both binary components, free of line blending, were derived via 2D cross-correlation with a program built on the principles of the program TODCOR. The oxygen lines in the secondary spectra are weaker than those in the model spectra of solar chemical composition. Using the component spectra disentangled with the program KOREL, we find that both components rotate considerably faster than would correspond to the synchronization at periastron. The apside rotation known from earlier studies is confirmed and compared to the theoretical value. Based on observations made with the ESO telescopes at the La Silla Paranal Observatory under programmes ID 083.D-0040(A), 085.C-0614(A), and 178.D-0361(B).Tables A.2-A.6 are only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (http://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/591/A129

  3. Reconstruction of cyclical and abrupt changes in northeastern Pacific precipitation during the Late Holocene based on marine sediments preserved in Effingham Inlet, British Columbia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dallimore, A.; Thomson, R.; Enkin, R. J.

    2009-12-01

    Accurate interpretation of paleoenvironmental time series requires the reliable chronological control now provided by an age-model of a 40 m long marine sediment core raised from Effingham Inlet in Barkley Sound, British Columbia in 2002 (Core MD02-2494). The Late-Pleistocene to Holocene age model provides detailed annual to decadal resolution of the timing of proxy paleoenvironmental indicators preserved in the core based on 46 radiocarbon dates and the presence of the Mazama Ash. Also determined is the timing of instantaneous depositional events related to seismic activity along the Cascadia subduction zone. A frequency-time analysis of the grey scale of sediment x-rays from the calibrated core, which represent the volume and timing of precipitation events in area over the past 6,000 years, show cyclical as well as abrupt “regime change” controls on the northeast Pacific and climate system. This time series, combined with a time series derived from the core using a geochemical reconstruction of Pacific decadal variability, now provide a quantitative means of comparing the marine paleoenvironmental record of ocean and climate conditions of the B.C. coast to other time series of Holocene northeastern Pacific paleoenvironmental indicators.

  4. Climate change threatens European conservation areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araújo, Miguel B; Alagador, Diogo; Cabeza, Mar; Nogués-Bravo, David; Thuiller, Wilfried

    2011-01-01

    Europe has the world's most extensive network of conservation areas. Conservation areas are selected without taking into account the effects of climate change. How effectively would such areas conserve biodiversity under climate change? We assess the effectiveness of protected areas and the Natura 2000 network in conserving a large proportion of European plant and terrestrial vertebrate species under climate change. We found that by 2080, 58 ± 2.6% of the species would lose suitable climate in protected areas, whereas losses affected 63 ± 2.1% of the species of European concern occurring in Natura 2000 areas. Protected areas are expected to retain climatic suitability for species better than unprotected areas (Pareas retain climate suitability for species no better and sometimes less effectively than unprotected areas. The risk is high that ongoing efforts to conserve Europe's biodiversity are jeopardized by climate change. New policies are required to avert this risk. PMID:21447141

  5. Climate change through a poverty lens

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallegatte, Stephane; Rozenberg, Julie

    2017-04-01

    Analysis of the economic impact of climate change typically considers regional or national economies and assesses its impact on macroeconomic aggregates such as gross domestic product. These studies therefore do not investigate the distributional impacts of climate change within countries or the impacts on poverty. This Perspective aims to close this gap and provide an assessment of climate change impacts at the household level to investigate the consequences of climate change for poverty and for poor people. It does so by combining assessments of the physical impacts of climate change in various sectors with household surveys. In particular, it highlights how rapid and inclusive development can reduce the future impact of climate change on poverty.

  6. India's National Action Plan on Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandve, Harshal T

    2009-04-01

    Climate change is one of the most critical global challenges of our times. Recent events have emphatically demonstrated our growing vulnerability to climate change. Climate change impacts will range from affecting agriculture - further endangering food security - to sea-level rise and the accelerated erosion of coastal zones, increasing intensity of natural disasters, species extinction, and the spread of vector-borne diseases. India released its much-awaited National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) to mitigate and adapt to climate change on June 30, 2008, almost a year after it was announced. The NAPCC runs through 2017 and directs ministries to submit detailed implementation plans to the Prime Minister's Council on Climate Change by December 2008. This article briefly reviews the plan and opinion about it from different experts and organizations.

  7. Global climate change and international security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rice, M.

    1991-01-01

    On May 8--10, 1991, the Midwest Consortium of International Security Studies (MCISS) and Argonne National Laboratory cosponsored a conference on Global Climate Change and International Security. The aim was to bring together natural and social scientists to examine the economic, sociopolitical, and security implications of the climate changes predicted by the general circulation models developed by natural scientists. Five themes emerged from the papers and discussions: (1) general circulation models and predicted climate change; (2) the effects of climate change on agriculture, especially in the Third World; (3) economic implications of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; (4) the sociopolitical consequences of climate change; and (5) the effect of climate change on global security.

  8. Global Climate Change and Children's Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahdoot, Samantha; Pacheco, Susan E

    2015-11-01

    Rising global temperature is causing major physical, chemical, and ecological changes across the planet. There is wide consensus among scientific organizations and climatologists that these broad effects, known as climate change, are the result of contemporary human activity. Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and security. Children are uniquely vulnerable to these threats. The effects of climate change on child health include physical and psychological sequelae of weather disasters, increased heat stress, decreased air quality, altered disease patterns of some climate-sensitive infections, and food, water, and nutrient insecurity in vulnerable regions. Prompt implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies will protect children against worsening of the problem and its associated health effects. This technical report reviews the nature of climate change and its associated child health effects and supports the recommendations in the accompanying policy statement on climate change and children's health. Copyright © 2015 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

  9. Evaluating the impact of abrupt changes in forest policy and management practices on landscape dynamics: analysis of a Landsat image time series in the Atlantic Northern Forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legaard, Kasey R; Sader, Steven A; Simons-Legaard, Erin M

    2015-01-01

    Sustainable forest management is based on functional relationships between management actions, landscape conditions, and forest values. Changes in management practices make it fundamentally more difficult to study these relationships because the impacts of current practices are difficult to disentangle from the persistent influences of past practices. Within the Atlantic Northern Forest of Maine, U.S.A., forest policy and management practices changed abruptly in the early 1990s. During the 1970s-1980s, a severe insect outbreak stimulated salvage clearcutting of large contiguous tracts of spruce-fir forest. Following clearcut regulation in 1991, management practices shifted abruptly to near complete dependence on partial harvesting. Using a time series of Landsat satellite imagery (1973-2010) we assessed cumulative landscape change caused by these very different management regimes. We modeled predominant temporal patterns of harvesting and segmented a large study area into groups of landscape units with similar harvest histories. Time series of landscape composition and configuration metrics averaged within groups revealed differences in landscape dynamics caused by differences in management history. In some groups (24% of landscape units), salvage caused rapid loss and subdivision of intact mature forest. Persistent landscape change was created by large salvage clearcuts (often averaging > 100 ha) and conversion of spruce-fir to deciduous and mixed forest. In groups that were little affected by salvage (56% of landscape units), contemporary partial harvesting caused loss and subdivision of intact mature forest at even greater rates. Patch shape complexity and edge density reached high levels even where cumulative harvest area was relatively low. Contemporary practices introduced more numerous and much smaller patches of stand-replacing disturbance (typically averaging Management regimes impacted different areas to different degrees, producing different trajectories

  10. U.S. Climate Change Technology Program: Strategic Plan

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2006-01-01

    .... climate change research and development activities. Under this new structure, climate change science and climate-related technology research programs are integrated to an extent not seen previously...

  11. Global situational awareness and early warning of high-consequence climate change.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Carr, Martin J.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick

    2009-08-01

    Global monitoring systems that have high spatial and temporal resolution, with long observational baselines, are needed to provide situational awareness of the Earth's climate system. Continuous monitoring is required for early warning of high-consequence climate change and to help anticipate and minimize the threat. Global climate has changed abruptly in the past and will almost certainly do so again, even in the absence of anthropogenic interference. It is possible that the Earth's climate could change dramatically and suddenly within a few years. An unexpected loss of climate stability would be equivalent to the failure of an engineered system on a grand scale, and would affect billions of people by causing agricultural, economic, and environmental collapses that would cascade throughout the world. The probability of such an abrupt change happening in the near future may be small, but it is nonzero. Because the consequences would be catastrophic, we argue that the problem should be treated with science-informed engineering conservatism, which focuses on various ways a system can fail and emphasizes inspection and early detection. Such an approach will require high-fidelity continuous global monitoring, informed by scientific modeling.

  12. Global Climate Change Pilot Course Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuenemann, K. C.; Wagner, R.

    2011-12-01

    In fall 2011 a pilot course on "Global Climate Change" is being offered, which has been proposed to educate urban, diverse, undergraduate students about climate change at the introductory level. The course has been approved to fulfill two general college requirements, a natural sciences requirement that focuses on the scientific method, as well as a global diversity requirement. This course presents the science behind global climate change from an Earth systems and atmospheric science perspective. These concepts then provide the basis to explore the effect of global warming on regions throughout the world. Climate change has been taught as a sub-topic in other courses in the past solely using scientific concepts, with little success in altering the climate change misconceptions of the students. This pilot course will see if new, innovative projects described below can make more of an impact on the students' views of climate change. Results of the successes or failures of these projects will be reported, as well as results of a pre- and post-course questionnaire on climate change given to students taking the course. Students in the class will pair off and choose a global region or country that they will research, write papers on, and then represent in four class discussions spaced throughout the semester. The first report will include details on the current climate of their region and how the climate shapes that region's society and culture. The second report will discuss how that region is contributing to climate change and/or sequestering greenhouse gases. Thirdly, students will discuss observed and predicted changes in that region's climate and what impact it has had, and could have, on their society. Lastly, students will report on what role their region has played in mitigating climate change, any policies their region may have implemented, and how their region can or cannot adapt to future climate changes. They will also try to get a feel for the region

  13. Characterising loss and damage from climate change

    OpenAIRE

    James, Rachel; Otto, Friedericke; Parker, Hannah; Boyd, Emily; Cornforth, Rosalind; Mitchell, Daniel; Allen, Myles

    2014-01-01

    Policy-makers are creating mechanisms to help developing countries cope with loss and damage from climate change, but the negotiations are largely neglecting scientific questions about what the impacts of climate change actually are.\\ud \\ud Mitigation efforts have failed to prevent the continued increase of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Adaptation is now unlikely to be sufficient to prevent negative impacts from current and future climate change1. In this context, vulnerable n...

  14. Anticipating Climate Change Impacts on Army Installations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-01

    ER D C SR -1 1- 1 Anticipating Climate Change Impacts on Army Installations Co ns tr uc tio n En gi ne er in g R es ea rc h La bo...distribution is unlimited. ERDC SR-11-1 October 2011 Anticipating Climate Change Impacts on Army Installations Robert C. Lozar, Matthew D...Abstract Military installations must be maintained and managed to provide appropriate training and testing opportunities. As climate changes

  15. Coastal Risk Management in a Changing Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Burcharth, Hans F.; Zanuttigh, Barbara; Andersen, Thomas Lykke

    2014-01-01

    Existing coastal management and defense approaches are not well suited to meet the challenges of climate change and related uncertanities. Professionals in this field need a more dynamic, systematic and multidisciplinary approach. Written by an international group of experts, Coastal Risk...... Management in a Changing Climate provides innovative, multidisciplinary best practices for mitigating the effects of climate change on coastal structures. Based on the Theseus program, the book includes eight study sites across Europe, with specific attention to the most vulnerable coastal environments...

  16. Using Web GIS "Climate" for Adaptation to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordova, Yulia; Martynova, Yulia; Shulgina, Tamara

    2015-04-01

    A work is devoted to the application of an information-computational Web GIS "Climate" developed by joint team of the Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems SB RAS and Tomsk State University to raise awareness about current and future climate change as a basis for further adaptation. Web-GIS "Climate» (http://climate.scert.ru/) based on modern concepts of Web 2.0 provides opportunities to study regional climate change and its consequences by providing access to climate and weather models, a large set of geophysical data and means of processing and visualization. Also, the system is used for the joint development of software applications by distributed research teams, research based on these applications and undergraduate and graduate students training. In addition, the system capabilities allow creating information resources to raise public awareness about climate change, its causes and consequences, which is a necessary step for the subsequent adaptation to these changes. Basic information course on climate change is placed in the public domain and is aimed at local population. Basic concepts and problems of modern climate change and its possible consequences are set out and illustrated in accessible language. Particular attention is paid to regional climate changes. In addition to the information part, the course also includes a selection of links to popular science network resources on current issues in Earth Sciences and a number of practical tasks to consolidate the material. These tasks are performed for a particular territory. Within the tasks users need to analyze the prepared within the "Climate" map layers and answer questions of direct interest to the public: "How did the minimum value of winter temperatures change in your area?", "What are the dynamics of maximum summer temperatures?", etc. Carrying out the analysis of the dynamics of climate change contributes to a better understanding of climate processes and further adaptation

  17. Applied climate-change analysis: the climate wizard tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girvetz, Evan H; Zganjar, Chris; Raber, George T; Maurer, Edwin P; Kareiva, Peter; Lawler, Joshua J

    2009-12-15

    Although the message of "global climate change" is catalyzing international action, it is local and regional changes that directly affect people and ecosystems and are of immediate concern to scientists, managers, and policy makers. A major barrier preventing informed climate-change adaptation planning is the difficulty accessing, analyzing, and interpreting climate-change information. To address this problem, we developed a powerful, yet easy to use, web-based tool called Climate Wizard (http://ClimateWizard.org) that provides non-climate specialists with simple analyses and innovative graphical depictions for conveying how climate has and is projected to change within specific geographic areas throughout the world. To demonstrate the Climate Wizard, we explored historic trends and future departures (anomalies) in temperature and precipitation globally, and within specific latitudinal zones and countries. We found the greatest temperature increases during 1951-2002 occurred in northern hemisphere countries (especially during January-April), but the latitude of greatest temperature change varied throughout the year, sinusoidally ranging from approximately 50 degrees N during February-March to 10 degrees N during August-September. Precipitation decreases occurred most commonly in countries between 0-20 degrees N, and increases mostly occurred outside of this latitudinal region. Similarly, a quantile ensemble analysis based on projections from 16 General Circulation Models (GCMs) for 2070-2099 identified the median projected change within countries, which showed both latitudinal and regional patterns in projected temperature and precipitation change. The results of these analyses are consistent with those reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but at the same time, they provide examples of how Climate Wizard can be used to explore regionally- and temporally-specific analyses of climate change. Moreover, Climate Wizard is not a static product, but

  18. Climate Change | Page 2 | IDRC - International Development ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Home · Agriculture and Environment. Climate Change. Language English. Read more about Climate leadership program: Building Africa's resilience through research, policy and practice. Language English. Read more about Climate adaptive action plans to manage heat stress in Indian cities. Language English.

  19. Connectivity planning to address climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tristan A. Nuñez; Joshua J. Lawler; Brad H. McRae; D. John Pierce; Meade B. Krosby; Darren M. Kavanagh; Peter H. Singleton; Joshua J. Tewksbury

    2013-01-01

    As the climate changes, human land use may impede species from tracking areas with suitable climates. Maintaining connectivity between areas of different temperatures could allow organisms to move along temperature gradients and allow species to continue to occupy the same temperature space as the climate warms. We used a coarse-filter approach to identify broad...

  20. Effects of climatic variability and change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael G. Ryan; James M. Vose

    2012-01-01

    Climate profoundly shapes forests. Forest species composition, productivity, availability of goods and services, disturbance regimes, and location on the landscape are all regulated by climate. Much research attention has focused on the problem of projecting the response of forests to changing climate, elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2)...

  1. Climate Change | IDRC - International Development Research Centre

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Climate Change. Language English. Read more about Strengthen the use of scientific evidence to inform climate policy, negotiations and implementation in Latin America. Language English. Read more about Strengthen scientific evidence and its use to inform policy, negotiations and climate implementation in Africa.

  2. Gender angle to the climate change negotiations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wamukonya, Njeri; Skutsch, Margaret

    2002-01-01

    The South is likely to suffer more from climate change than the North due to its already vulnerable situation and lack of the necessary resources to adapt to change. But do the interests of men and of women differ as regards climate change and does this have a South-North dimension? This paper

  3. Climate change vulnerability assessment in Georgia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binita KC; J. Marshall Shepherd; Cassandra Johnson Gaither

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is occurring in the Southeastern United States, and one manifestation is changes in frequency and intensity of extreme events. A vulnerability assessment is performed in the state of Georgia (United States) at the county level from 1975 to 2012 in decadal increments. Climate change vulnerability is typically measured as a function of exposure to physical...

  4. learning for Climate Change adaptation among Selected ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    education to clarify what may or may not cause climate change. Some respondents mistook the effects of climate change for its causes, citing increased rainfall, flooding and increased temperature as causes, when, in reality, they are the effects of such change. These outcomes are similar to earlier research findings of Fumo ...

  5. Climate Change and European Union Member Economies

    OpenAIRE

    Margaux Tharin; Alina Gabriela Brezoi; Livia–Irina Olaru

    2010-01-01

    Climate change affects us all both global and personal level. In recent years, we have seen an increase in extreme weather phenomena such as floods, droughts, tornadoes, increased shoreline erosion seas and oceans. The phenomenon of climate change that changed the globe is an irreversible process. Due to extreme weather events to human civilization began to be in danger.

  6. Adaptation in climate change hotspots: Change under way in Africa ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2015-01-26

    Jan 26, 2015 ... The Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA) aims to build the resilience of poor people to climate change in three climate change “hot spots”: basins, deltas, and semi-arid regions. In each of these areas, large numbers of poor people depend on climate sensitive sectors for ...

  7. Incorporating Student Activities into Climate Change Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steele, H.; Kelly, K.; Klein, D.; Cadavid, A. C.

    2013-12-01

    Under a NASA grant, Mathematical and Geospatial Pathways to Climate Change Education, students at California State University, Northridge integrated Geographic Information Systems (GIS), remote sensing, satellite data technologies, and climate modelling into the study of global climate change under a Pathway for studying the Mathematics of Climate Change (PMCC). The PMCC, which is an interdisciplinary option within the BS in Applied Mathematical Sciences, consists of courses offered by the departments of Mathematics, Physics, and Geography and is designed to prepare students for careers and Ph.D. programs in technical fields relevant to global climate change. Under this option students are exposed to the science, mathematics, and applications of climate change science through a variety of methods including hands-on experience with computer modeling and image processing software. In the Geography component of the program, ESRI's ArcGIS and ERDAS Imagine mapping, spatial analysis and image processing software were used to explore NASA satellite data to examine the earth's atmosphere, hydrosphere and biosphere in areas that are affected by climate change or affect climate. These technology tools were incorporated into climate change and remote sensing courses to enhance students' knowledge and understanding of climate change through hands-on application of image processing techniques to NASA data. Several sets of exercises were developed with specific learning objectives in mind. These were (1) to increase student understanding of climate change and climate change processes; (2) to develop student skills in understanding, downloading and processing satellite data; (3) to teach remote sensing technology and GIS through applications to climate change; (4) to expose students to climate data and methods they can apply to solve real world problems and incorporate in future research projects. In the Math and Physics components of the course, students learned about

  8. Greenhouse governance: addressing climate change in America

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Rabe, Barry George

    2010-01-01

    .... Issues examined include public perceptions and economic effects of climate change and policies to mitigate it, renewable electricity standards, vehicle fuel economy standards, cap-and-trade regimes...

  9. Road Infrastructure and Climate Change in Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul S. Chinowsky

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is a potential threat to Vietnam’s development as current and future infrastructure will be vulnerable to climate change impacts. This paper focuses on the physical asset of road infrastructure in Vietnam by evaluating the potential impact of changes from stressors, including: sea level rise, precipitation, temperature and flooding. Across 56 climate scenarios, the mean additional cost of maintaining the same road network through 2050 amount to US$10.5 billion. The potential scale of these impacts establishes climate change adaptation as an important component of planning and policy in the current and near future.

  10. The psychological distance of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spence, Alexa; Poortinga, Wouter; Pidgeon, Nick

    2012-06-01

    Avoiding dangerous climate change is one of the most urgent social risk issues we face today and understanding related public perceptions is critical to engaging the public with the major societal transformations required to combat climate change. Analyses of public perceptions have indicated that climate change is perceived as distant on a number of different dimensions. However, to date there has been no in-depth exploration of the psychological distance of climate change. This study uses a nationally representative British sample in order to systematically explore and characterize each of the four theorized dimensions of psychological distance--temporal, social, and geographical distance, and uncertainty--in relation to climate change. We examine how each of these different aspects of psychological distance relate to each other as well as to concerns about climate change and sustainable behavior intentions. Results indicate that climate change is both psychologically distant and proximal in relation to different dimensions. Lower psychological distance was generally associated with higher levels of concern, although perceived impacts on developing countries, as an indicator of social distance, was also significantly related to preparedness to act on climate change. Our findings clearly point to the utility of risk communication techniques designed to reduce psychological distance. However, highlighting the potentially very serious distant impacts of climate change may also be useful in promoting sustainable behavior, even among those already concerned. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  11. Answering the Oregon challenge : climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-13

    This paper outlines Gov. Kulongoski's agenda concerning the issue of climate change. It addresses several key topics: greenhouse gas reduction, energy efficiency, renewable energy, and sustainable transportation.

  12. Mesocosms Reveal Ecological Surprises from Climate Change

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Fordham, Damien A

    2015-01-01

    .... Two recent studies show how mesocosm experiments can hasten understanding of the ecological consequences of climate change on species' extinction risk, community structure, and ecosystem functions...

  13. When climate science became climate politics: British media representations of climate change in 1988.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaspal, Rusi; Nerlich, Brigitte

    2014-02-01

    Climate change has become a pressing environmental concern for scientists, social commentators and politicians. Previous social science research has explored media representations of climate change in various temporal and geographical contexts. Through the lens of Social Representations Theory, this article provides a detailed qualitative thematic analysis of media representations of climate change in the 1988 British broadsheet press, given that this year constitutes an important juncture in this transition of climate change from the domain of science to that of the socio-political sphere. The following themes are outlined: (i) "Climate change: a multi-faceted threat"; (ii) "Collectivisation of threat"; (iii) "Climate change and the attribution of blame"; and (iv) "Speculative solutions to a complex socio-environmental problem." The article provides detailed empirical insights into the "starting-point" for present-day disputes concerning climate change and lays the theoretical foundations for tracking the continuities and discontinuities characterising social representations of climate change in the future.

  14. Climate bifurcation during the last deglaciation?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lenton, T.M.; Livina, V.N.; Dakos, V.; Scheffer, M.

    2012-01-01

    There were two abrupt warming events during the last deglaciation, at the start of the Bolling-Allerod and at the end of the Younger Dryas, but their underlying dynamics are unclear. Some abrupt climate changes may involve gradual forcing past a bifurcation point, in which a prevailing climate state

  15. Climate Change or Land Use Dynamics: Do We Know What Climate Change Indicators Indicate?

    OpenAIRE

    Clavero Pineda, Miguel; Villero, Daniel; Brotons, Lluís

    2011-01-01

    Different components of global change can have interacting effects on biodiversity and this may influence our ability to detect the specific consequences of climate change through biodiversity indicators. Here, we analyze whether climate change indicators can be affected by land use dynamics that are not directly determined by climate change. To this aim, we analyzed three community-level indicators of climate change impacts that are based on the optimal thermal environment and average lat...

  16. Adaptation to Climate Change in Developing Countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mertz, Ole; Halsnæs, Kirsten; Olesen, Jørgen E.

    2009-01-01

    countries. It is concluded that although many useful steps have been taken in the direction of ensuring adequate adaptation in developing countries, much work still remains to fully understand the drivers of past adaptation efforts, the need for future adaptation, and how to mainstream climate into general......Adaptation to climate change is given increasing international attention as the confidence in climate change projections is getting higher. Developing countries have specific needs for adaptation due to high vulnerabilities, and they will in this way carry a great part of the global costs...... of climate change although the rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are mainly the responsibility of industrialized countries. This article provides a status of climate change adaptation in developing countries. An overview of observed and projected climate change is given, and recent literature...

  17. Impacts of Climate Variability and Climate Change on the Mangrove ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Impacts of Climate Variability and Climate Change on the Mangrove Ecosystem in Tumbes, Peru. The mangrove ecosystem of Tumbes plays a pivotal role in providing protection against tides, winds and storm surges, and habitat for a number of fish species. The native coastal communities of Tumbes rely on artisanal ...

  18. Fat-tailed risk about climate change and climate policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hwang, I.C.; Tol, R.S.J.; Hofkes, M.

    2016-01-01

    This paper investigates the role of emissions control in welfare maximization under fat-tailed risk about climate change. We provide a classification of fat tails and discuss the effect of fat-tailed risk on climate policy. One of the main findings is that emissions control may prevent the "strong"

  19. Lessons on Climate Sensitivity From Past Climate Changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heydt, von der Anna S.; Dijkstra, Henk A.; Wal, van de Roderik S.W.; Bathiany, Sebastian

    2016-01-01

    Over the last decade, our understanding of climate sensitivity has improved considerably. The climate system shows variability on many timescales, is subject to non-stationary forcing and it is most likely out of equilibrium with the changes in the radiative forcing. Slow and fast feedbacks

  20. Hydrologic refugia, plants, and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLaughlin, Blair C; Ackerly, David D; Klos, P Zion; Natali, Jennifer; Dawson, Todd E; Thompson, Sally E

    2017-08-01

    Climate, physical landscapes, and biota interact to generate heterogeneous hydrologic conditions in space and over time, which are reflected in spatial patterns of species distributions. As these species distributions respond to rapid climate change, microrefugia may support local species persistence in the face of deteriorating climatic suitability. Recent focus on temperature as a determinant of microrefugia insufficiently accounts for the importance of hydrologic processes and changing water availability with changing climate. Where water scarcity is a major limitation now or under future climates, hydrologic microrefugia are likely to prove essential for species persistence, particularly for sessile species and plants. Zones of high relative water availability - mesic microenvironments - are generated by a wide array of hydrologic processes, and may be loosely coupled to climatic processes and therefore buffered from climate change. Here, we review the mechanisms that generate mesic microenvironments and their likely robustness in the face of climate change. We argue that mesic microenvironments will act as species-specific refugia only if the nature and space/time variability in water availability are compatible with the ecological requirements of a target species. We illustrate this argument with case studies drawn from California oak woodland ecosystems. We posit that identification of hydrologic refugia could form a cornerstone of climate-cognizant conservation strategies, but that this would require improved understanding of climate change effects on key hydrologic processes, including frequently cryptic processes such as groundwater flow. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.