WorldWideScience

Sample records for a1b emission scenario

  1. Country-Level Population and Downscaled Projections Based on the SRES A1, B1, and A2 Scenarios, 1990-2100

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Country-Level Population and Downscaled Projections Based on Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1, B1, and A2 Scenarios, 1990-2100, were adopted in...

  2. Future projections of insured losses in the German private building sector following the A1B climatic change scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Held, H.; Gerstengarbe, F.-W.; Hattermann, F.; Pinto, J. G.; Ulbrich, U.; Böhm, U.; Born, K.; Büchner, M.; Donat, M. G.; Kücken, M.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Nissen, K.; Nocke, T.; Österle, H.; Pardowitz, T.; Werner, P. C.; Burghoff, O.; Broecker, U.; Kubik, A.

    2012-04-01

    We present an overview of a complementary-approaches impact project dealing with the consequences of climate change for the natural hazard branch of the insurance industry in Germany. The project was conducted by four academic institutions together with the German Insurance Association (GDV) and finalized in autumn 2011. A causal chain is modeled that goes from global warming projections over regional meteorological impacts to regional economic losses for private buildings, hereby fully covering the area of Germany. This presentation will focus on wind storm related losses, although the method developed had also been applied in part to hail and flood impact losses. For the first time, the GDV supplied their collected set of insurance cases, dating back for decades, for such an impact study. These data were used to calibrate and validate event-based damage functions which in turn were driven by three different types of regional climate models to generate storm loss projections. The regional models were driven by a triplet of ECHAM5 experiments following the A1B scenario which were found representative in the recent ENSEMBLES intercomparison study. In our multi-modeling approach we used two types of regional climate models that conceptually differ at maximum: a dynamical model (CCLM) and a statistical model based on the idea of biased bootstrapping (STARS). As a third option we pursued a hybrid approach (statistical-dynamical downscaling). For the assessment of climate change impacts, the buildings' infrastructure and their economic value is kept at current values. For all three approaches, a significant increase of average storm losses and extreme event return levels in the German private building sector is found for future decades assuming an A1B-scenario. However, the three projections differ somewhat in terms of magnitude and regional differentiation. We have developed a formalism that allows us to express the combined effect of multi-source uncertainty on return

  3. Future Changes in Surface Runoff over Korea Projected by a Regional Climate Model under A1B Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ji-Woo Lee

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study assesses future change of surface runoff due to climate change over Korea using a regional climate model (RCM, namely, the Global/Regional Integrated Model System (GRIMs, Regional Model Program (RMP. The RMP is forced by future climate scenario, namely, A1B of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4. The RMP satisfactorily reproduces the observed seasonal mean and variation of surface runoff for the current climate simulation. The distribution of monsoonal precipitation-related runoff is adequately captured by the RMP. In the future (2040–2070 simulation, it is shown that the increasing trend of temperature has significant impacts on the intra-annual runoff variation. The variability of runoff is increased in summer; moreover, the strengthened possibility of extreme occurrence is detected in the future climate. This study indicates that future climate projection, including surface runoff and its variability over Korea, can be adequately addressed on the RMP testbed. Furthermore, this study reflects that global warming affects local hydrological cycle by changing major water budget components. This study adduces that the importance of runoff should not be overlooked in regional climate studies, and more elaborate presentation of fresh-water cycle is needed to close hydrological circulation in RCMs.

  4. Coffee Beverage Quality Assessment Based on ETA/CPTEC-HadCM3 Model (A1B-IPCC/SRES Scenario), Southeastern Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giarolla, A.; Resende, N.; Chou, S. C.; Tavares, P. S.; Rodrigues, D. C.

    2012-04-01

    Environmental factors influence the coffee beverage quality and air temperature has a significant importance in this process. The grain maturation occurs very quickly in regions that present high temperatures and sometimes there is not enough time to complete all this phase adequately. In the other hand, with mild temperatures, the grain maturation occurs more slowly and it promotes a better quality beverage. The aim of this study was to assess the coffee beverage quality in the southeastern Brazil, based on climate projections using the Eta-CPTEC regional model driven by four members of an ensemble of the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Coupled climate model (HadCM3). The global model ensemble was run over the 21st century according to IPCC SRES, A1B emissions scenario. Each ensemble member presented different climate sensitivity in the analysis. The Eta-CPTEC-HadCM3 model was configured with a 40-km grid size and was run over the period of 1961-90 to represent a baseline climate, and over the period of 2011-2100 to simulate possible future changes and the effects on the coffee beverage quality. A coffee beverage quality classification, which depends on the annual air temperature proposed by Bressani (2007) and also, a quality coffee beverage sensory classification, based on Camargo and Cortez (1998) were considered in this study. An evaluation of the systematic errors (BIAS) for each member for the period from 1961 to 1990 was made. The results presented by Eta/CPTEC-HadCM3 model indicated that in the case of an occurrence of A1B emission scenario, the coffee beverage quality could be affected in this region due to the fact that the flavor may become stronger and unpleasant caused by rising air temperatures. The BIAS evaluation and subsequent errors removal demonstrated improvement in the scenarios simulations. A short review concerning agronomic techniques to mitigate extreme meteorological events or global warming on coffee crop based on Camargo (2010) also is

  5. Climate response to projected changes in short-lived species under an A1B scenario from 2000-2050 in the GISS climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Menon, Surabi; Shindell, Drew T.; Faluvegi, Greg; Bauer, Susanne E.; Koch, Dorothy M.; Unger, Nadine; Menon, Surabi; Miller, Ron L.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Streets, David G.

    2007-03-26

    We investigate the climate forcing from and response to projected changes in short-lived species and methane under the A1B scenario from 2000-2050 in the GISS climate model. We present a meta-analysis of new simulations of the full evolution of gas and aerosol species and other existing experiments with variations of the same model. The comparison highlights the importance of several physical processes in determining radiative forcing, especially the effect of climate change on stratosphere-troposphere exchange, heterogeneous sulfate-nitrate-dust chemistry, and changes in methane oxidation and natural emissions. However, the impact of these fairly uncertain physical effects is substantially less than the difference between alternative emission scenarios for all short-lived species. The net global mean annual average direct radiative forcing from the short-lived species is .02 W/m{sup 2} or less in our projections, as substantial positive ozone forcing is largely offset by negative aerosol direct forcing. Since aerosol reductions also lead to a reduced indirect effect, the global mean surface temperature warms by {approx}0.07 C by 2030 and {approx}0.13 C by 2050, adding 19% and 17%, respectively, to the warming induced by long-lived greenhouse gases. Regional direct forcings are large, up to 3.8 W/m{sup 2}. The ensemble-mean climate response shows little regional correlation with the spatial pattern of the forcing, however, suggesting that oceanic and atmospheric mixing generally overwhelms the effect of even large localized forcings. Exceptions are the polar regions, where ozone and aerosols may induce substantial seasonal climate changes.

  6. Learning from global emissions scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Neill, Brian C; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2008-01-01

    Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

  7. NEC-2020 emission reduction scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Slentø, Erik; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth; Hoffmann, Leif

    The upcoming NEC-2020 EU directive sets up emission ceilings for NOX, SO2, NH3, NMVOC and PM in order to meet the environmental exposure targets of the Thematic Strategy. This report contains an assessment of intermediary emission reduction scenarios for Denmark, computed by the GAINS model 2007,......, which serves as the basis for the pending negotiations in EU. The assessment is brought up to date by including a brief evaluation of the new reduction scenarios published in 2008, founding the European Commission NEC-2020 directive proposal....

  8. IPCC Special report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon

    2001-01-01

    This special report on emissions scenarios (SRES) is intended to reflect the most recent trends in driving forces of emissions; population projections economic development, and structural and technological change. It serves as an update to IS92 scenarios developed by IPCC in the early 1990s to illustrate a plausible range of future greenhouse gas emissions. This update is based on a review of the literature and the development of a database of over 400 global and regional scenarios; 190 of these extend from 1900 to 2100 and thus fed into the development of the narrative scenarios and storylines. Based on the literature review, a set of four alternative scenario families, having a total of 40 emission scenarios have been developed. Each scenario family includes a narrative storyline which describes a demographic, social. economic, technological, environmental and policy future. Characteristic features of each of the four families are summarized and a comparison is made between the IS92 and SRES. One of the main conclusions of this recent scenario construction effort is the realization that alternative combinations of main scenario driving forces can lead to similar levels of GHG emissions by the end of the 21st century, and that scenarios with different underlying assumptions can result in very similar climate change

  9. Impact of climate change on Precipitation and temperature under the RCP 8.5 and A1B scenarios in an Alpine Cathment (Alto-Genil Basin,southeast Spain). A comparison of statistical downscaling methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulido-Velazquez, David; Juan Collados-Lara, Antonio; Pardo-Iguzquiza, Eulogio; Jimeno-Saez, Patricia; Fernandez-Chacon, Francisca

    2016-04-01

    In order to design adaptive strategies to global change we need to assess the future impact of climate change on water resources, which depends on precipitation and temperature series in the systems. The objective of this work is to generate future climate series in the "Alto Genil" Basin (southeast Spain) for the period 2071-2100 by perturbing the historical series using different statistical methods. For this targeted we use information coming from regionals climate model simulations (RCMs) available in two European projects, CORDEX (2013), with a spatial resolution of 12.5 km, and ENSEMBLES (2009), with a spatial resolution of 25 km. The historical climate series used for the period 1971-2000 have been obtained from Spain02 project (2012) which has the same spatial resolution that CORDEX project (both use the EURO-CORDEX grid). Two emission scenarios have been considered: the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 emissions scenario, which is the most unfavorable scenario considered in the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and the A1B emission scenario of fourth Assessment Report (AR4). We use the RCM simulations to create an ensemble of predictions weighting their information according to their ability to reproduce the main statistic of the historical climatology. A multi-objective analysis has been performed to identify which models are better in terms of goodness of fit to the cited statistic of the historical series. The ensemble of the CORDEX and the ENSEMBLES projects has been finally created with nine and four models respectively. These ensemble series have been used to assess the anomalies in mean and standard deviation (differences between the control and future RCM series). A "delta-change" method (Pulido-Velazquez et al., 2011) has been applied to define future series by modifying the historical climate series in accordance with the cited anomalies in mean and standard deviation. A

  10. Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Corbett

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050 scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. These high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories for shipping can be used to evaluate Arctic climate sensitivity to black carbon (a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow, aerosols, and gaseous emissions including carbon dioxide. We quantify ship emissions scenarios which are expected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. A first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase global warming potential due to Arctic ships' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams by some 17% to 78%. The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

  11. SO2 emission scenarios of eastern China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qi, L.; Hao, J.; Lu, M.

    1995-01-01

    Under the National Key Project in Eighth Five-year Plan, a study was carried out on forecasting SO 2 emission from coal combustion in China, with a special emphasis on the eastern area. 3 scenarios, i.e. 'Optimistic', 'Pessimistic' and 'Business as Usual' scenarios were developed trying to cover changing scale of coal consumption and SO 2 emission from 1990 to 2020. A 'Top-down' approach was employed, and coal consumption elasticity was defined to project future economic growth and coal consumption. SO 2 emission scenarios were outlined, based on coal consumption, estimated sulfur content level and prospective SO 2 control situation. Emission level for each 1 degree longitude x 1 degree latitude grid cell within eastern China was also estimated to show geographical distribution of SO 2 sources. The results show that SO 2 emission in China will increase rapidly, if the current situation for energy saving and SO 2 control is maintained without improvement; measures enhanced reasonably with economic growth could stop further increase of emission by 2010. Realization of more encouraging objective to keep emission at even below 1990 level needs, however, more stringent options. The share of eastern China in the country's total emission would increase until 2000, while the general changing tendency would principally follow the scenarios of the whole country. 4 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab

  12. Inventories and scenarios of nitrous oxide emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davidson, Eric A; Kanter, David

    2014-01-01

    Effective mitigation for N 2 O emissions, now the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas and the largest remaining anthropogenic source of stratospheric ozone depleting substances, requires understanding of the sources and how they may increase this century. Here we update estimates and their uncertainties for current anthropogenic and natural N 2 O emissions and for emissions scenarios to 2050. Although major uncertainties remain, ‘bottom-up’ inventories and ‘top-down’ atmospheric modeling yield estimates that are in broad agreement. Global natural N 2 O emissions are most likely between 10 and 12 Tg N 2 O-N yr −1 . Net anthropogenic N 2 O emissions are now about 5.3 Tg N 2 O-N yr −1 . Gross anthropogenic emissions by sector are 66% from agriculture, 15% from energy and transport sectors, 11% from biomass burning, and 8% from other sources. A decrease in natural emissions from tropical soils due to deforestation reduces gross anthropogenic emissions by about 14%. Business-as-usual emission scenarios project almost a doubling of anthropogenic N 2 O emissions by 2050. In contrast, concerted mitigation scenarios project an average decline of 22% relative to 2005, which would lead to a near stabilization of atmospheric concentration of N 2 O at about 350 ppb. The impact of growing demand for biofuels on future projections of N 2 O emissions is highly uncertain; N 2 O emissions from second and third generation biofuels could remain trivial or could become the most significant source to date. It will not be possible to completely eliminate anthropogenic N 2 O emissions from agriculture, but better matching of crop N needs and N supply offers significant opportunities for emission reductions. (paper)

  13. Emissions Scenarios and Fossil-fuel Peaking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brecha, R.

    2008-12-01

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios are based on detailed energy system models in which demographics, technology and economics are used to generate projections of future world energy consumption, and therefore, of greenhouse gas emissions. Built into the assumptions for these scenarios are estimates for ultimately recoverable resources of various fossil fuels. There is a growing chorus of critics who believe that the true extent of recoverable fossil resources is much smaller than the amounts taken as a baseline for the IPCC scenarios. In a climate optimist camp are those who contend that "peak oil" will lead to a switch to renewable energy sources, while others point out that high prices for oil caused by supply limitations could very well lead to a transition to liquid fuels that actually increase total carbon emissions. We examine a third scenario in which high energy prices, which are correlated with increasing infrastructure, exploration and development costs, conspire to limit the potential for making a switch to coal or natural gas for liquid fuels. In addition, the same increasing costs limit the potential for expansion of tar sand and shale oil recovery. In our qualitative model of the energy system, backed by data from short- and medium-term trends, we have a useful way to gain a sense of potential carbon emission bounds. A bound for 21st century emissions is investigated based on two assumptions: first, that extractable fossil-fuel resources follow the trends assumed by "peak oil" adherents, and second, that little is done in the way of climate mitigation policies. If resources, and perhaps more importantly, extraction rates, of fossil fuels are limited compared to assumptions in the emissions scenarios, a situation can arise in which emissions are supply-driven. However, we show that even in this "peak fossil-fuel" limit, carbon emissions are high enough to surpass 550 ppm or 2°C climate protection guardrails. Some

  14. Estimates of future climate based on SRES emission scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Godal, Odd; Sygna, Linda; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Berntsen, Terje

    2000-02-14

    The preliminary emission scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), will eventually replace the old IS92 scenarios. By running these scenarios in a simple climate model (SCM) we estimate future temperature increase between 1.7 {sup o}C and 2.8 {sup o}C from 1990 to to 2100. The global sea level rise over the same period is between 0.33 m and 0.45 m. Compared to the previous IPCC scenarios (IS92) the SRES scenarios generally results in changes in both development over time and level of emissions, concentrations, radiative forcing, and finally temperature change and sea level rise. The most striking difference between the IS92 scenarios and the SRES scenarios is the lower level of SO{sub 2} emissions. The range in CO{sub 2} emissions is also expected to be narrower in the new scenarios. The SRES scenarios result in a narrower range both for temperature change and sea level rise from 1990 to 2100 compared to the range estimated for the IS92 scenarios. (author)

  15. Scenarios of carbon dioxide emissions from aviation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mayor, K.; Tol, R.S.J.

    2010-01-01

    We use a model of international and domestic tourist numbers and flows to project tourist numbers and emissions from international tourism out to 2100. We find that between 2005 and 2100 international tourism grows substantially. Not only do people take more trips but these also increase in length.

  16. Strategies to control vehicular emissions: Indian scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Virupaksha, T. [Central Institute of Road Transport, Pune (India)

    2002-07-01

    The paper presents a common urban transport policy framework to protect the local and global environment and a state-of-the-art review of recommendations and measures suggested by the local administration in Indian cities from time to time. The measures to combat pollution in urban areas is identified by different cities but there is no cohesive strategy for implementing them. The pursuit of some of these measures are that the haphazard and piecemeal measures have not helped to gain optimum benefit possible or to make a discernible impact on mobility demand and vehicular emissions. A more practical strategy is required to reduce both emission and congestion, using a mixed set of instruments. The instruments are taxes on fuels, vehicles, and parking, incentives and regulations affecting vehicle ownership, usage and movement, traffic management more importantly encouraging non-motorized transport like bicycles by providing suitable lanes. Some of the policy measures seriously needed to be implemented to reduce ongoing pollution menace are enforcing higher maintenance standards, introducing vehicles designed to meet stricter emission standards, retrofitting vehicles to use other kinds of clean fuel, reducing urban congestion through transport management measures, scrapping highly polluting and high usage vehicles, and strengthening institutional links and regulatory issues. 5 refs., 1 tab.

  17. Does extreme precipitation intensity depend on the emissions scenario?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pendergrass, Angeline; Lehner, Flavio; Sanderson, Benjamin; Xu, Yangyang

    2016-04-01

    The rate of increase of global-mean precipitation per degree surface temperature increase differs for greenhouse gas and aerosol forcings, and therefore depends on the change in composition of the emissions scenario used to drive climate model simulations for the remainder of the century. We investigate whether or not this is also the case for extreme precipitation simulated by a multi-model ensemble driven by four realistic emissions scenarios. In most models, the rate of increase of maximum annual daily rainfall per degree global warming in the multi-model ensemble is statistically indistinguishable across the four scenarios, whether this extreme precipitation is calculated globally, over all land, or over extra-tropical land. These results indicate that, in most models, extreme precipitation depends on the total amount of warming and does not depend on emissions scenario, in contrast to mean precipitation.

  18. Methods for Developing Emissions Scenarios for Integrated Assessment Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prinn, Ronald [MIT; Webster, Mort [MIT

    2007-08-20

    The overall objective of this research was to contribute data and methods to support the future development of new emissions scenarios for integrated assessment of climate change. Specifically, this research had two main objectives: 1. Use historical data on economic growth and energy efficiency changes, and develop probability density functions (PDFs) for the appropriate parameters for two or three commonly used integrated assessment models. 2. Using the parameter distributions developed through the first task and previous work, we will develop methods of designing multi-gas emission scenarios that usefully span the joint uncertainty space in a small number of scenarios. Results on the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) parameter are summarized, an uncertainty analysis of elasticities of substitution is described, and the probabilistic emissions scenario approach is presented.

  19. Role of innovative technologies under the global zero emissions scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tokimatsu, Koji; Konishi, Satoshi; Ishihara, Keiichi; Tezuka, Tetsuo; Yasuoka, Rieko; Nishio, Masahiro

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • We modeled a zero emissions scenario based on the A1T scenario of IPCC-SRES. • We conducted global modeling by minimizing costs of energy, biomass, and materials. • A variety of advanced technology innovations were considered and incorporated. • Results suggest that zero emissions scenario may be possible in this century. • We revealed energy supply structure under the zero emissions scenarios. - Abstract: This study investigated zero emissions scenarios with following two originalities compared to various existing studies. One is that we based on A1T society of SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenario) of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) compared to existing studies on those of B1 or B2. The second one is that various innovative technologies were considered and incorporated, such as biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), and advanced nuclear technologies including hydrogen or synfuel production. We conducted global modeling over the period 2010–2150 in which energy, materials, and biomass and foods supply costs were minimized by linear programming. We found following features of energy supply structure in A1T scenario. Since the electric demand in A1T scenario in 2100 is two times larger than the others, (1) renewable energy which solely produce electricity, nuclear, and fossil energy with CCS (FECCS) especially coal are main sources of electricity, (2) renewable which can supply heat, namely BECCS and geothermal, satisfies the sector, and (3) hydrogen from coal is introduced in transport sector. It can be concluded that the zero emission energy systems with global economic growth will be possible, by development and deployment of ambitious advanced energy technologies.

  20. Scenario Study on PM emission Reduction in Cement Industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Qian; Chen, Xiaojun; Xia, Xin; Wang, Lijuan; Wang, Huili; Jin, Ling; Yan, Zhen

    2018-01-01

    Cement industry is one of the high pollution industries in China. Evaluation of the primary particulate matter (PM) emission status and the reduction potential is not only important for our understanding of the effectiveness of current pollution control measures but also vital for future policy design. In this study, PM emitted from cement producing process in 2014 was calculated using an emission factor method. Three PM emission control scenarios were set up considering source control, process management and end-of-pipe treatment, and the PM emission reduction by 2020 under the three scenarios was predicted, respectively. In 2014, the primary PM emission from cement industry was 1.95 million tons. By 2020, the productions of cement and clinker were expected to increase by 12% and 7%, respectively, and the PM emission would increase by about 10%. By implementation of GB4915-2013 and comprehensive control of fugitive PM emission, the PM emission would probably be reduced by 34%. Another 7% decrease would be expected from source control. The second scenario can be considered as an assessment of the effectiveness of the revised emission standard, and this research can be used as a technical support to the environmental management authorities to make relevant policies.

  1. Greenhouse gas emissions for the EU in four future scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lesschen, J.P.; Rienks, W.; Staritsky, I. [Alterra, Wageningen-UR, Wageningen (Netherlands); Eickhout, B.; Prins, A.G. [Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency PBL, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    2009-12-15

    The European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) will be revised in the near future. A proposed agricultural policy reform will affect many dimensions of the sustainable development of agriculture. One of these dimensions are greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of four scenarios of the future, from the Eururalis study, and the effects of CAP options on GHG emissions from agriculture. The results provide an indication of the range of GHG emissions between the four diverging base scenarios and the differences with current emission levels in Member States and on EU level. Analysis of the possible impact of the measures on GHG emissions showed that this would be much larger from mitigation measures than from CAP options. Full implementation of the mitigation measures could lead to a reduction in GHG emissions from agriculture of 127 Mt CO2 equivalents. This is about a quarter of current GHG emissions from agriculture. Promoting mitigation measures, therefore, is more effective for reducing GHG emissions from agriculture, than influencing income and price subsidies within the CAP. On the global scale, CAP options hardly play a role in total GHG emissions from land use. Much more important are developments in global population, economic growth, policies and technological developments, as depicted in the various scenarios.

  2. Future emission scenarios for chemicals that may deplete stratospheric ozone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hammitt, J.K; Camm, Frank; Mooz, W.E.; Wolf, K.A.; Bamezai, Anil; Connel, P.S.; Wuebbles, D.J.

    1990-01-01

    Scenarios are developed for long-term future emissions of seven of the most important manmade chemicals that may deplete ozone and the corresponding effect on stratospheric ozone concentrations is calculated using a one-dimensional atmospheric model. The scenarios are based on detailed analysis of the markets for products that use these chemicals and span a central 90% probability interval for the chemicals joint effect on calculated ozone abundance, assuming no additional regulations. (author). 22 refs., 2 figs., 5 tabs

  3. Scenarios for a Nordic Power System without Greenhouse Gas Emissions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Graabak, Ingeborg; Nilsson, Måns; Wu, Qiuwei

    2014-01-01

    The paper presents scenarios for power production without greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden by 2050. The Nordic region already has a high share of renewables in its power production portfolio (about 60% in 2010), and possibilities for further deployment are very...

  4. Emission trading scheme: market analysis and forecasting scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clo, Stefano

    2006-01-01

    This article offers an economic analysis of the Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) and its institutional framework; we introduce an economic model able to simulate some possible market price's scenarios. The aim of this article is to offer a better market fundamentals' comprehension and to help economic agents building their expectations about market's development [it

  5. Carbon dioxide emissions from Russia's electricity sector: future scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steenhof, Paul A.; Hill, Malcolm R.

    2006-01-01

    This article investigates future greenhouse gas emission scenarios for Russia's electricity sector, a topic of importance since Russia's ratification of the Kyoto Protocol in November 2004. Eleven scenarios are constructed to the year 2020 considering economic and technological details in both the demand and supply sides of the sector. The scenarios are based upon a thorough review of the different factors controlling carbon dioxide emissions, including potential economic growth, changes in energy efficiency and technological development, and that Russia may export large amounts of natural gas to European and Asian markets. The most likely scenario is that Russia will double industrial output over the next 10 years, increase energy efficiency in the demand sector, will remain consistent to the goals of the Energy Strategy 2020 and will implement more efficient technology in the electricity supply sector. Consequently, carbon dioxide emissions will still be 102 million tonnes below 1990 levels in 2010, representing a significant source for emission reduction credits available to be sold on international markets or transferred to the next crediting period. (Author)

  6. Emissions reduction scenarios in the Argentinean Energy Sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Di Sbroiavacca, Nicolás; Nadal, Gustavo; Lallana, Francisco; Falzon, James; Calvin, Katherine

    2016-01-01

    In this paper the LEAP, TIAM-ECN, and GCAM models were applied to evaluate the impact of a variety of climate change control policies (including carbon pricing and emission constraints relative to a base year) on primary energy consumption, final energy consumption, electricity sector development, and CO_2 emission savings of the energy sector in Argentina over the 2010–2050 period. The LEAP model results indicate that if Argentina fully implements the most feasible mitigation measures currently under consideration by official bodies and key academic institutions on energy supply and demand, such as the ProBiomass program, a cumulative incremental economic cost of 22.8 billion US$(2005) to 2050 is expected, resulting in a 16% reduction in GHG emissions compared to a business-as-usual scenario. These measures also bring economic co-benefits, such as a reduction of energy imports improving the balance of trade. A Low CO_2 price scenario in LEAP results in the replacement of coal by nuclear and wind energy in electricity expansion. A High CO_2 price leverages additional investments in hydropower. By way of cross-model comparison with the TIAM-ECN and GCAM global integrated assessment models, significant variation in projected emissions reductions in the carbon price scenarios was observed, which illustrates the inherent uncertainties associated with such long-term projections. These models predict approximately 37% and 94% reductions under the High CO_2 price scenario, respectively. By comparison, the LEAP model, using an approach based on the assessment of a limited set of mitigation options, predicts an 11.3% reduction. The main reasons for this difference include varying assumptions about technology cost and availability, CO_2 storage capacity, and the ability to import bioenergy. An emission cap scenario (2050 emissions 20% lower than 2010 emissions) is feasible by including such measures as CCS and Bio CCS, but at a significant cost. In terms of technology

  7. Emissions Scenario Portal for Visualization of Low Carbon Pathways

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedrich, J.; Hennig, R. J.; Mountford, H.; Altamirano, J. C.; Ge, M.; Fransen, T.

    2016-12-01

    This proposal for a presentation is centered around a new project which is developed collaboratively by the World Resources Institute (WRI), Google Inc., and Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP). The project aims to develop an online, open portal, the Emissions Scenario Portal (ESP),to enable users to easily visualize a range of future greenhouse gas emission pathways linked to different scenarios of economic and energy developments, drawing from a variety of modeling tools. It is targeted to users who are not modelling experts, but instead policy analysts or advisors, investment analysts, and similar who draw on modelled scenarios to inform their work, and who can benefit from better access to, and transparency around, the wide range of emerging scenarios on ambitious climate action. The ESP will provide information from scenarios in a visually appealing and easy-to-understand manner that enable these users to recognize the opportunities to reduce GHG emissions, the implications of the different scenarios, and the underlying assumptions. To facilitate the application of the portal and tools in policy dialogues, a series of country-specific and potentially sector-specific workshops with key decision-makers and analysts, supported by relevant analysis, will be organized by the key partners and also in broader collaboration with others who might wish to convene relevant groups around the information. This project will provide opportunities for modelers to increase their outreach and visibility in the public space and to directly interact with key audiences of emissions scenarios, such as policy analysts and advisors. The information displayed on the portal will cover a wide range of indicators, sectors and important scenario characteristics such as macroeconomic information, emission factors and policy as well as technology assumptions in order to facilitate comparison. These indicators have been selected based on existing standards (such as the IIASA AR5

  8. Divide by 4 the emissions: the Negatep scenario; Diviser par 4 nos rejets: le scenario Negatep

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P

    2007-01-15

    The Negatep scenario is proposed in the framework of the french energy policy, aiming to divide by 4 the CO{sub 2} emissions for 2050. After an evaluation of the today situation concerning the energy consumption and needs, the scenario proposes some ways of energy conservation in different sectors, other energy sources in place of the fossil fuels, the energy needs by sectors. The last part of the document provides the main consumption posts, the CO{sub 2} releases and the approach. (A.L.B.)

  9. Divide by 4 the emissions: the Negatep scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P.

    2007-01-01

    The Negatep scenario is proposed in the framework of the french energy policy, aiming to divide by 4 the CO 2 emissions for 2050. After an evaluation of the today situation concerning the energy consumption and needs, the scenario proposes some ways of energy conservation in different sectors, other energy sources in place of the fossil fuels, the energy needs by sectors. The last part of the document provides the main consumption posts, the CO 2 releases and the approach. (A.L.B.)

  10. Allowable carbon emissions for medium-to-high mitigation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tachiiri, Kaoru; Hargreaves, Julia C.; Annan, James D.; Kawamiya, Michio [Research Inst. for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, (Japan)], e-mail: tachiiri@jamstec.go.jp; Huntingford, Chris [Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford (United Kingdom)

    2013-11-15

    Using an ensemble of simulations with an intermediate complexity climate model and in a probabilistic framework, we estimate future ranges of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions in order to follow three medium-high mitigation concentration pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and SCP4.5 to 2.6. Uncertainty is first estimated by allowing modelled equilibrium climate sensitivity, aerosol forcing and intrinsic physical and biogeochemical processes to vary within widely accepted ranges. Results are then constrained by comparison against contemporary measurements. For both constrained and unconstrained projections, our calculated allowable emissions are close to the standard (harmonised) emission scenarios associated with these pathways. For RCP4.5, which is the most moderate scenario considered in terms of required emission abatement, then after year 2100 very low net emissions are needed to maintain prescribed year 2100 CO{sub 2} concentrations. As expected, RCP2.6 and SCP4.5 to 2.6 require more strict emission reductions. The implication of this is that direct sequestration of carbon dioxide is likely to be required for RCP4.5 or higher mitigation scenarios, to offset any minimum emissions for society to function (the 'emissions floor'). Despite large uncertainties in the physical and biogeochemical processes, constraints from model-observational comparisons support a high degree of confidence in predicting the allowable emissions consistent with a particular concentration pathway. In contrast the uncertainty in the resulting temperature range remains large. For many parameter sets, and especially for RCP2.6, the land will turn into a carbon source within the twenty first century, but the ocean will remain as a carbon sink. For land carbon storage and our modelling framework, major reductions are seen in northern high latitudes and the Amazon basin even after atmospheric CO{sub 2} is stabilised, while for ocean carbon uptake, the tropical ocean regions will be a

  11. Climate and health implications of future aerosol emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Landry, Jean-Sébastien; Damon Matthews, H.

    2018-02-01

    Anthropogenic aerosols have a net cooling effect on climate and also cause adverse health effects by degrading air quality. In this global-scale sensitivity study, we used a combination of the aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ and the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model to assess the climate and health effects of aerosols emissions from three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) and two new (LOW and HIGH) aerosol emission scenarios derived from RCP4.5, but that span a wider spectrum of possible future aerosol emissions. All simulations had CO2 emissions and greenhouse gas forcings from RCP4.5. Aerosol forcing declined similarly in the standard RCP aerosol emission scenarios: the aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) decreased from -1.3 W m-2 in 2005 to between -0.1 W m-2 and -0.4 W m-2 in 2100. The differences in ERF were substantially larger between LOW (-0.02 W m-2 in 2100) and HIGH (-0.8 W m-2) scenarios. The global mean temperature difference between the simulations with standard RCP aerosol emissions was less than 0.18 °C, whereas the difference between LOW and HIGH reached 0.86 °C in 2061. In LOW, the rate of warming peaked at 0.48 °C per decade in the 2030s, whereas in HIGH it was the lowest of all simulations and never exceeded 0.23 °C per decade. Using present-day population density and baseline mortality rates for all scenarios, PM2.5-induced premature mortality was 2 371 800 deaths per year in 2010 and 525 700 in 2100 with RCP4.5 aerosol emissions; in HIGH, the premature mortality reached its maximum value of 2 780 800 deaths per year in 2030, whereas in LOW the premature mortality at 2030 was below 299 900 deaths per year. Our results show potential trade-offs in aerosol mitigation with respect to climate change and public health as ambitious reduction of aerosol emissions considerably increased warming while decreasing mortality.

  12. Working Toward Policy-Relevant Air Quality Emissions Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holloway, T.

    2010-12-01

    Though much work has been done to develop accurate chemical emission inventories, few publicly available inventories are appropriate for realistic policy analysis. Emissions from the electricity and transportation sectors, in particular, respond in complex ways to policy, technology, and energy use change. Many widely used inventories, such as the EPA National Emissions Inventory, are well-suited for modeling current air quality, but do not have the specificity needed to address "what if?" questions. Changes in electricity demand, fuel prices, new power sources, and emission controls all influence the emissions from regional power production, requiring a plant-by-plant assessment to capture the spatially explicit impacts. Similarly, land use, freight distribution, or driving behavior will yield differentiated transportation emissions for urban areas, suburbs, and rural highways. We here present results from three recent research projects at the University of Wisconsin—Madison, where bottom-up emission inventories for electricity, freight transport, and urban vehicle use were constructed to support policy-relevant air quality research. These three studies include: 1) Using the MyPower electricity dispatch model to calculate emissions and air quality impacts of Renewable Portfolio Standards and other carbon-management strategies; 2) Using advanced vehicle and commodity flow data from the Federal Highway Administration to evaluate the potential to shift commodities from truck to rail (assuming expanded infrastructure), and assess a range of alternative fuel suggestions; and 3) Working with urban planners to connect urban density with vehicle use to evaluate the air quality impacts of smart-growth in major Midwest cities. Drawing on the results of these three studies, and on challenges overcome in their execution, we discuss the current state of policy-relevant emission dataset generation, as well as techniques and attributes that need to be further refined in order

  13. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D.

    2012-09-01

    We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration driven simulations (with 10-90 percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario up to 3.9 K for the high end business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 degrees (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration driven experiments) on the timescale that different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration pathways used to drive GCM ensembles lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legecy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in concentration driven projections. Our ensemble of emission driven simulations span the global temperature response of other multi-model frameworks except at the low end, where combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to responses outside our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon

  14. Possible climate change over Eurasia under different emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sokolov, A. P.; Monier, E.; Gao, X.

    2012-12-01

    In an attempt to evaluate possible climate change over EURASIA, we analyze results of six AMIP type simulations with CAM version 3 (CAM3) at 2x2.5 degree resolution. CAM3 is driven by time series of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice obtained by running the MIT IGSM2.3, which consists of a 3D ocean GCM coupled to a zonally-averaged atmospheric climate-chemistry model. In addition to changes in SSTs, CAM3 is forced by changes in greenhouse gases and ozone concentrations, sulfate aerosol forcing and black carbon loading calculated by the IGSM2.3. An essential feature of the IGSM is the possibility to vary its climate sensitivity (using a cloud adjustment technique) and the strength of the aerosol forcing. For consistency, new modules were developed in CAM3 to modify its climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing to match those used in the simulations with the IGSM2.3. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "Business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-EQ stabilization, which are similar to the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, respectively. Values of climate sensitivity used in the simulations within the IGSM-CAM framework are median and the bounds of the 90% probability interval of the probability distribution obtained by comparing the 20th century climate simulated by different versions of the IGSM with observations. The associated strength of the aerosol forcing was chosen to ensure a good agreement with the observed climate change over the 20th century. Because the concentration of sulfate aerosol significantly decreases over the 21st century in both emissions scenarios, climate changes obtained in these simulations provide a good approximation for the median, and the 5th and 95th percentiles of the probability distribution of 21st century climate change.

  15. Scenarios for global emissions from air traffic. The development of regional and gridded (5 degrees x 5 degrees) emissions scenarios for aircraft and for surface sources, based on CPB scenarios and existing emission inventories for aircraft and surface sources

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Olivier JGJ; LAE

    1995-01-01

    An estimate was made of present global emissions from air traffic using statistical information on fuel consumption, aircraft types and applying emission factors for various compounds. To generate scenarios for future emissions from air traffic, assumptions were used regarding the development of the

  16. Projections of summertime ozone concentration over East Asia under multiple IPCC SRES emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jae-Bum; Cha, Jun-Seok; Hong, Sung-Chul; Choi, Jin-Young; Myoung, Ji-Su; Park, Rokjin J.; Woo, Jung-Hun; Ho, Changhoi; Han, Jin-Seok; Song, Chang-Keun

    2015-04-01

    We have developed the Integrated Climate and Air Quality Modeling System (ICAMS) through the one-way nesting of global-regional models to examine the changes in the surface ozone concentrations over East Asia under future climate scenarios. Model simulations have been conducted for the present period of 1996-2005 to evaluate the performance of ICAMS. The simulated surface ozone concentrations reproduced the observed monthly mean concentrations at sites in East Asia with high R2 values (0.4-0.9), indicating a successful simulation to capture both spatial and temporal variability. We then performed several model simulations with the six IPCC SRES scenarios (A2, A1B, A1FI, A1T, B1, and B2) for the next three periods, 2016-2025 (the 2020s), 2046-2055 (the 2050s), and 2091-2100 (the 2090s). The model results show that the projected changes of the annual daily mean maximum eight-hour (DM8H) surface ozone concentrations in summertime for East Asia are in the range of 2-8 ppb, -3 to 8 ppb, and -7 to 9 ppb for the 2020s, the 2050s, and the 2090s, respectively, and are primarily determined based on the emission changes of NOx and NMVOC. The maximum increases in the annual DM8H surface ozone and high-ozone events occur in the 2020s for all scenarios except for A2, implying that the air quality over East Asia is likely to get worse in the near future period (the 2020s) than in the far future periods (the 2050s and the 2090s). The changes in the future environment based on IPCC SRES scenarios would also influence the change in the occurrences of high-concentrations events more greatly than that of the annual DM8H surface ozone concentrations. Sensitivity simulations show that the emissions increase is the key factor in determining future regional surface ozone concentrations in the case of a developing country, China, whereas a developed country, Japan would be influenced more greatly by effects of the regional climate change than the increase in emissions.

  17. Carbon emissions and management scenarios for consumer-owned utilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischlein, Miriam; Smith, Timothy M.; Wilson, Elizabeth J.

    2009-01-01

    An important subset of the utility sector has been scarcely explored for its ability to reduce carbon dioxide emissions: consumer-owned electric utilities significantly contribute to U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, but are often excluded from energy efficiency and renewable energy policies. They sell a quarter of the nation's electricity, yet the carbon impact of these sales is not well understood, due to their small size, unique ownership models, and high percentage of purchased power for distribution. This paper situates consumer-owned utilities in the context of emerging U.S. climate policy, quantifying for the first time the state-by-state carbon impact of electricity sales by consumer-owned utilities. We estimate that total retail sales by consumer-owned utilities account for roughly 568 million metric tons of CO 2 annually, making this sector the 7th largest CO 2 emitter globally, and examine state-level carbon intensities of the sector in light of the current policy environment and the share of COU distribution in the states. Based on efficiency and fuel mix pathways under conceivable regulations, carbon scenarios for 2030 are developed.

  18. Particle Reduction Strategies - PAREST. Traffic emission modelling. Model comparision and alternative scenarios. Sub-report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kugler, Ulrike; Theloke, Jochen; Joerss, Wolfram

    2013-01-01

    The modeling of the reference scenario and the various reduction scenarios in PAREST was based on the Central System of Emissions (CSE) (CSE, 2007). Emissions from road traffic were calculated by using the traffic emission model TREMOD (Knoerr et al., 2005) and fed into the CSE. The version TREMOD 4.17 has been used. The resulting emission levels in PAREST reference scenario were supplemented by the emission-reducing effect of the implementation of the future Euro 5 and 6 emission standards for cars and light commercial vehicles and Euro VI for heavy commercial vehicles in combination with the truck toll extension. [de

  19. Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang; Karamchandani, Prakash; Streets, David G.

    2016-08-01

    The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality is projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O3 level and of 0.3 mg m3 in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO2, H2O2, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere’s near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratospheric recovery of O3, and increases in CH4 and VOCs. Increasing NOx and O3 levels enhances the nitrogen and O3 deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth’s surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m2 . This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR’s CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol

  20. Emission Scenario Document for Biocides Emission scenarios for all 23 product types of the Biocidal Products Directive (EU Directive 98/8/EC)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Poel P van der; Bakker J; CSR

    2002-01-01

    This report presents an overview of all available emission scenarios for all 23 product types of biocides according to EU Directive 98/8/EC. The scenarios presented are already present in USES 3.0 or have been reported by RIVM or within the scope of the project "Gathering, review and development of

  1. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. B. B. Booth

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM. These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10–90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario. A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5 and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6 temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high

  2. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D. M. H.

    2013-04-01

    We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10-90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments) on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high-end responses which lie

  3. Towards an Integrated Assessment Model for Tropospheric Ozone-Emission Inventories, Scenarios and Emission-control Options

    OpenAIRE

    Olsthoorn, X.

    1994-01-01

    IIASA intends to extend its RAINS model for addressing the issue of transboundary ozone air pollution. This requires the development of a VOC-emissions module, VOCs being precursors in ozone formation. The module should contain a Europe-wide emission inventory, a submodule for developing emission scenarios and a database of measures for VOC-emission control, including data about control effectiveness and control costs. It is recommended to use the forthcoming CORINAIR90 inventory for construc...

  4. Optimal scenario balance of reduction in costs and greenhouse gas emissions for municipal solid waste management

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    邓娜; 张强; 陈广武; 齐长青; 崔文谦; 张于峰; 马洪亭

    2015-01-01

    To reduce carbon intensity, an improved management method balancing the reduction in costs and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is required for Tianjin’s waste management system. Firstly, six objective functions, namely, cost minimization, GHG minimization, eco-efficiency minimization, cost maximization, GHG maximization and eco-efficiency maximization, are built and subjected to the same constraints with each objective function corresponding to one scenario. Secondly, GHG emissions and costs are derived from the waste flow of each scenario. Thirdly, the range of GHG emissions and costs of other potential scenarios are obtained and plotted through adjusting waste flow with infinitely possible step sizes according to the correlation among the above six scenarios. And the optimal scenario is determined based on this range. The results suggest the following conclusions. 1) The scenarios located on the border between scenario cost minimization and GHG minimization create an optimum curve, and scenario GHG minimization has the smallest eco-efficiency on the curve;2) Simple pursuit of eco-efficiency minimization using fractional programming may be unreasonable; 3) Balancing GHG emissions from incineration and landfills benefits Tianjin’s waste management system as it reduces GHG emissions and costs.

  5. Assessment of biodiesel scenarios for Midwest freight transport emission reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    There are trade-offs when attempting to reduce both greenhouse gas and criteria air pollutants for freight transport, as the control : strategies are not necessarily complimentary. While emission controls can remove ozone precursors and particulate f...

  6. Effects of Climate Change on Global Food Production from SRES Emissions and Socioeconomic Scenarios

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Effects of Climate Change on Global Food Production from SRES Emissions and Socioeconomic Scenarios is an update to a major crop modeling study by the NASA Goddard...

  7. IPCC IS92 Emissions Scenarios (A, B, C, D, E, F) Dataset Version 1.1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) IS92 Emissions Scenarios (A, B, C, D, E, F) Dataset Version 1.1 consists of six global and regional greenhouse...

  8. Emissions Scenarios, Costs, and Implementation Considerations of REDD Programs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sathaye, Jayant; Andrasko, Ken; Chan, Peter

    2011-04-11

    Greenhouse gas emissions from the forestry sector are estimated to be 8.4 GtCO2-eq./year or about 17percent of the global emissions. We estimate that the cost forreducing deforestation is low in Africa and several times higher in Latin America and Southeast Asia. These cost estimates are sensitive to the uncertainties of how muchunsustainable high-revenue logging occurs, little understood transaction and program implementation costs, and barriers to implementation including governance issues. Due to lack of capacity in the affected countries, achieving reduction or avoidance of carbon emissions will require extensive REDD-plus programs. Preliminary REDD-plus Readiness cost estimates and program descriptions for Indonesia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ghana, Guyana and Mexico show that roughly one-third of potential REDD-plus mitigation benefits might come from avoided deforestation and the rest from avoided forest degradation and other REDD-plus activities.

  9. Some scenarios of CO2 emission from the energy system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liik, O.; Landsberg, M.

    1996-01-01

    After Estonia regained its independence, planning of energy policy became topical. Since 1989, several expert groups have worked on the urgent problems and developments of Estonia's power engineering. Comprehensive energy system planning by mathematical modeling was accomplished in 1994. Then Tallinn Technical University acquired the MARKAL model from the Swedish National Board for Industrial and Technical Development (NUTEK). The influence of air pollution constraints on energy system development was first investigated in 1995. At the end of 1995, under the U.S. Country Studies Program, a detailed analysis of future CO 2 emissions and their reduction options began. During 1990-1993, energy demand lowered due to economic decline and sharp rise in the fuel and energy prices as well as a decrease in electricity exports, has resulting in 50% reduction of CO 2 emissions. For the same reasons, Estonia has been able to meet the requirements set in the agreements on SO 2 and NO x emissions with no special measures or costs. To meet the rigid ing SO 2 restrictions and growing energy consumption in the future, Estonia must invest in abatement and in new clean and efficient oil-shale combustion technology. Along with the old oil-shale plants closing and electricity consumption growing, other fuels will be used. The increase in energy demand then should not be fast due to constantly rising prices and efficient energy use. Measures to reduce SO 2 , and NO x emissions will also reduce CO 2 . In MARKAL runs the 1990 level of CO 2 emissions will be exceeded only along with high demand growth and absence of emissions control. Restricted availability of imported fuels and nuclear power or enabling electricity import can change the results significantly. The results discussed here can also change because the data base is being improved (such as detailed description of energy networks, description of demand-side technologies, accounting of energy conservation measures, addition of

  10. Emission scenarios 1985-2010: Their influence on ozone in Switzerland - Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keller, J.; Andreani-Aksoyoglu, S.; Tinguely, M.; Prevot, A.

    2005-07-01

    Ozone levels often exceed the ambient air quality standards during summer time. Since 1985, numerous regulations have been enforced or proposed to improve air quality in Europe. In this study we investigated the effect of these measures on ozone. Seven anthropogenic emission scenarios have been selected: scenario 0: emissions as reported for 2000 (base case); scenario 1: emissions as reported for 1985; scenario 2: emissions in 2000, if economy (and emissions) grows without control; scenario 3: emissions in 2010, if the Gothenburg Protocol is in force; scenario 4: emissions in 2010 according to the current legislation; scenario 5: emissions in 2010: 100% and 50% of the Gothenburg target emissions in Europe and in Switzerland, respectively; scenario 6: emissions in 2010: 50% and 50% of the Gothenburg target emissions in Europe and in Switzerland, respectively; scenario 7: zero anthropogenic emissions in Switzerland, base case emissions elsewhere. The 4-day period from 4 to 7 August 2003 was studied by means of the 3-dimensional photochemical model CAMx with 2 nested domains. The coarse domain covered a large part of Europe with a horizontal resolution of 27 km x 27 km. Switzerland and parts of the surrounding countries including the Greater Milan area were covered by the fine domain with resolution of 9 km x 9 km. Gridded meteorological data were obtained from MM5 meteorological model. The emission inventory was prepared by compiling European and Swiss anthropogenic emissions from various sources. Reference year was 2000. Biogenic emissions were calculated with temperature and irradiance dependent algorithms using land use and meteorological data. Initial and boundary conditions were adjusted from the output of the global model MOZART. The model could reproduce peak ozone concentrations around large urban areas. Model results were strongly affected by meteorological parameterization and emissions. Compared to 2000, ozone concentrations in 1985 were about 5% higher in

  11. Emission scenarios 1985-2010: Their influence on ozone in Switzerland - Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, J.; Andreani-Aksoyoglu, S.; Tinguely, M.; Prevot, A

    2005-07-15

    Ozone levels often exceed the ambient air quality standards during summer time. Since 1985, numerous regulations have been enforced or proposed to improve air quality in Europe. In this study we investigated the effect of these measures on ozone. Seven anthropogenic emission scenarios have been selected: scenario 0: emissions as reported for 2000 (base case); scenario 1: emissions as reported for 1985; scenario 2: emissions in 2000, if economy (and emissions) grows without control; scenario 3: emissions in 2010, if the Gothenburg Protocol is in force; scenario 4: emissions in 2010 according to the current legislation; scenario 5: emissions in 2010: 100% and 50% of the Gothenburg target emissions in Europe and in Switzerland, respectively; scenario 6: emissions in 2010: 50% and 50% of the Gothenburg target emissions in Europe and in Switzerland, respectively; scenario 7: zero anthropogenic emissions in Switzerland, base case emissions elsewhere. The 4-day period from 4 to 7 August 2003 was studied by means of the 3-dimensional photochemical model CAMx with 2 nested domains. The coarse domain covered a large part of Europe with a horizontal resolution of 27 km x 27 km. Switzerland and parts of the surrounding countries including the Greater Milan area were covered by the fine domain with resolution of 9 km x 9 km. Gridded meteorological data were obtained from MM5 meteorological model. The emission inventory was prepared by compiling European and Swiss anthropogenic emissions from various sources. Reference year was 2000. Biogenic emissions were calculated with temperature and irradiance dependent algorithms using land use and meteorological data. Initial and boundary conditions were adjusted from the output of the global model MOZART. The model could reproduce peak ozone concentrations around large urban areas. Model results were strongly affected by meteorological parameterization and emissions. Compared to 2000, ozone concentrations in 1985 were about 5% higher in

  12. Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

    2015-01-01

    We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

  13. High estimates of supply constrained emissions scenarios for long-term climate risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, James D.; Mohr, Steve H.; Myers, Baden R.; Nel, Willem P.

    2012-01-01

    The simulated effects of anthropogenic global warming have become important in many fields and most models agree that significant impacts are becoming unavoidable in the face of slow action. Improvements to model accuracy rely primarily on the refinement of parameter sensitivities and on plausible future carbon emissions trajectories. Carbon emissions are the leading cause of global warming, yet current considerations of future emissions do not consider structural limits to fossil fuel supply, invoking a wide range of uncertainty. Moreover, outdated assumptions regarding the future abundance of fossil energy could contribute to misleading projections of both economic growth and climate change vulnerability. Here we present an easily replicable mathematical model that considers fundamental supply-side constraints and demonstrate its use in a stochastic analysis to produce a theoretical upper limit to future emissions. The results show a significant reduction in prior uncertainty around projected long term emissions, and even assuming high estimates of all fossil fuel resources and high growth of unconventional production, cumulative emissions tend to align to the current medium emissions scenarios in the second half of this century. This significant finding provides much-needed guidance on developing relevant emissions scenarios for long term climate change impact studies. - Highlights: ► GHG emissions from conventional and unconventional fossil fuels modelled nationally. ► Assuming worst-case: large resource, high growth, rapid uptake of unconventional. ► Long-term cumulative emissions align well with the SRES medium emissions scenario. ► High emissions are unlikely to be sustained through the second half of this century. ► Model designed to be easily extended to test other scenarios e.g. energy shortages.

  14. The response of the climate system to very high greenhouse gas emission scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanderson, Benjamin M; O'Neill, Brian C; Kiehl, Jeffrey T; Meehl, Gerald A; Knutti, Reto; Washington, Warren M

    2011-01-01

    Well informed decisions on climate policy necessitate simulation of the climate system for a sufficiently wide range of emissions scenarios. While recent literature has been devoted to low emissions futures, the potential for very high emissions has not been thoroughly explored. We specify two illustrative emissions scenarios that are significantly higher than the A1FI scenario, the highest scenario considered in past IPCC reports, and simulate them in a global climate model to investigate their climate change implications. Relative to the A1FI scenario, our highest scenario results in an additional 2 K of global mean warming above A1FI levels by 2100, a complete loss of arctic summer sea-ice by 2070 and an additional 43% sea level rise due to thermal expansion above A1FI levels by 2100. Regional maximum temperature increases from late 20th century values are 50-100% greater than A1FI increases, with some regions such as the Central US, the Tibetan plateau and Alaska showing a 300-400% increase above A1FI levels.

  15. The response of the climate system to very high greenhouse gas emission scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanderson, Benjamin M; O' Neill, Brian C; Kiehl, Jeffrey T; Meehl, Gerald A [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Knutti, Reto; Washington, Warren M, E-mail: bsander@ucar.edu [Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich (Switzerland)

    2011-07-15

    Well informed decisions on climate policy necessitate simulation of the climate system for a sufficiently wide range of emissions scenarios. While recent literature has been devoted to low emissions futures, the potential for very high emissions has not been thoroughly explored. We specify two illustrative emissions scenarios that are significantly higher than the A1FI scenario, the highest scenario considered in past IPCC reports, and simulate them in a global climate model to investigate their climate change implications. Relative to the A1FI scenario, our highest scenario results in an additional 2 K of global mean warming above A1FI levels by 2100, a complete loss of arctic summer sea-ice by 2070 and an additional 43% sea level rise due to thermal expansion above A1FI levels by 2100. Regional maximum temperature increases from late 20th century values are 50-100% greater than A1FI increases, with some regions such as the Central US, the Tibetan plateau and Alaska showing a 300-400% increase above A1FI levels.

  16. Simulation scenarios for rapid reduction in carbon dioxide emissions in the western electricity system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ford, Andrew

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes a computer simulation analysis of carbon dioxide emissions in the electric power system in the western United States. Legislation at both the state and federal level would impose a price on emissions via cap-and-trade in allowances for carbon dioxide emissions. The simulation scenarios for the western system indicate that dramatic reductions in emissions are possible with generating technologies that exist today. Wind and biomass generators play a key role even with conservative assumptions about their future costs. In contrast, generation from advanced technologies provide only a minor contribution by the year 2025. These scenarios provide support to those who argue that the US should move expeditiously to put a price on carbon dixoide emissions

  17. Spatiotemporal Characteristics, Determinants and Scenario Analysis of CO2 Emissions in China Using Provincial Panel Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shaojian; Fang, Chuanglin; Li, Guangdong

    2015-01-01

    This paper empirically investigated the spatiotemporal variations, influencing factors and future emission trends of China's CO2 emissions based on a provincial panel data set. A series of panel econometric models were used taking the period 1995-2011 into consideration. The results indicated that CO2 emissions in China increased over time, and were characterized by noticeable regional discrepancies; in addition, CO2 emissions also exhibited properties of spatial dependence and convergence. Factors such as population scale, economic level and urbanization level exerted a positive influence on CO2 emissions. Conversely, energy intensity was identified as having a negative influence on CO2 emissions. In addition, the significance of the relationship between CO2 emissions and the four variables varied across the provinces based on their scale of economic development. Scenario simulations further showed that the scenario of middle economic growth, middle population increase, low urbanization growth, and high technology improvement (here referred to as Scenario BTU), constitutes the best development model for China to realize the future sustainable development. Based on these empirical findings, we also provide a number of policy recommendations with respect to the future mitigation of CO2 emissions.

  18. Emissions implications of downscaled electricity generation scenarios for the western United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nsanzineza, Rene; O’Connell, Matthew; Brinkman, Gregory; Milford, Jana B.

    2017-10-01

    This study explores how emissions from electricity generation in the Western Interconnection region of the U.S. might respond in circa 2030 to contrasting scenarios for fuel prices and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions fees. We examine spatial and temporal variations in generation mix across the region and year using the PLEXOS unit commitment and dispatch model with a production cost model database adapted from the Western Electricity Coordinating Council. Emissions estimates are computed by combining the dispatch model results with unit-specific, emissions-load relationships. Wind energy displaces natural gas and coal in scenarios with relatively expensive natural gas or with GHG fees. Correspondingly, annual emissions of NOx, SO2, and CO2 are reduced by 20-40% in these cases. NOx emissions, which are a concern as a precursor of ground-level ozone, are relatively high and consistent across scenarios during summer, when peak electricity loads occur and wind resources in the region are comparatively weak. Accounting for the difference in start-up versus stabilized NOx emissions rates for natural gas plants had little impact on region-wide emissions estimates due to the dominant contribution from coal-fired plants, but would be more important in the vicinity of the natural gas units.

  19. Economic effects of restrictions on carbon dioxide emissions. Scenarios for Sweden to 2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-02-01

    Simulations have been performed of the effect of carbon dioxide-restrictions related to the Kyoto-protocol on the Swedish economy. Using the Environmental Medium Term Economic model three scenarios have been simulated where Sweden: 1. increases the CO 2 emissions by 4%; 2. decreases the CO 2 emissions by 2%; 3. decreases the CO 2 emissions by 8% in year 2010 compared to year 1990. In a fourth scenario, a tax of 0.60 SEK (about 0.06 USD) is imposed on each emitted kg CO 2 . Results of the simulations show that certain structure-changes take place in the economy, but that the GDP growth will not be influenced in any larger degree (-0.3, -0.4, -0.6 and -0.1 % compared to the reference scenario for 1997-2010 resp.). The refinery sector will be most heavily influenced, with a production reduction of 4 to 10 %

  20. Scenarios of high greenhouse gas emission reduction in transports and buildings by 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teissier, O.; Meunier, L.

    2008-01-01

    The authors report simulations of different environmental policy measures concerning transports and buildings in France. First, they review measures which may entail a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, and comment their emission reduction potential and their implementation costs. These measures are then ranked, and only those presenting a significant potential and an economically and technologically feasibility are finally considered. Their impact is then simulated by using different models which are adapted to the both sectors and to time ranges. The obtained results are compared to those obtained with a calibrated trend scenario and with a 'factor 4' scenario

  1. Different scenarios to reduce greenhouse gas emissions of thermal power stations in Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zabihian, F.; Fung, A.S.

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to examine greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction potentials in the Canadian electricity generation sector through fuel switching and the adoption of advanced power generation systems. To achieve this purpose, six different scenarios were introduced. In the first scenario existing power stations' fuel was switched to natural gas. Existing power plants were replaced by natural gas combined cycle (NGCC), integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC), solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC), hybrid SOFC, and SOFC-IGCC hybrid power stations in scenarios number 2 to 6, respectively. (author)

  2. Analysis of Long-term Energy and Carbon Emission Scenarios for India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rajesh, N.; Kapshe, M.; Shukla, P.R.; Garg, A.; Rana, A.

    2003-01-01

    In the coming years India faces great challenges in energy and environment. The path of development chosen by India, upon which lies the future growth of energy and emission trajectories, would be greatly influenced by technological developments both within and outside the country, economic cooperation between countries, and global cooperation in limiting greenhouse gas emissions. This paper discusses the integrated modeling system used for developing and analyzing the long-term trajectories and presents results for the scenarios developed. In the context of ongoing market reforms two scenarios - accelerated and decelerated reforms - are developed depicting fast and slow progress in energy sector reforms compared to expectations in the baseline scenario. Accelerated market reforms would spur improvements in technological efficiencies. Reforms would lower investment risks in India, thereby stimulating increased levels of foreign direct investment. On the other hand in decelerated reform scenario economic growth is lower than that in the base case, there is low access to capital, and technological improvements lag behind those in the base case. In another scenario we assume specific policy interventions for penetration of renewable technologies over the baseline scenario, for promotion and accelerated deployment of renewable energy technologies over and above the baseline assumptions. A scenario with carbon (c) constraints has also been developed and the results discussed

  3. National greenhouse gas emissions baseline scenarios. Learning from experiences in developing countries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-04-15

    This report reviews national approaches to preparing baseline scenarios of greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions. It does so by describing and comparing in non-technical language existing practices and choices made by ten developing countries - Brazil, China, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Mexico, South Africa, Thailand and Vietnam. The review focuses on a number of key elements, including model choices, transparency considerations, choices about underlying assumptions and challenges associated with data management. The aim is to improve overall understanding of baseline scenarios and facilitate their use for policy-making in developing countries more broadly. The findings are based on the results of a collaborative project involving a number of activities undertaken by the Danish Energy Agency, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the UNEP Risoe Centre (URC), including a series of workshops on the subject. The ten contributing countries account for approximately 40% of current global GHG emissions - a share that is expected to increase in the future. The breakdown of emissions by sector varies widely among these countries. In some countries, the energy sector is the leading source of emissions; for others, the land-use sector and/or agricultural sector dominate emissions. The report underscores some common technical and financial capacity gaps faced by developing countries when preparing baseline scenarios. It does not endeavour to propose guidelines for preparing baseline scenarios. Rather, it is hoped that the report will inform any future attempts at preparing such kind of guidelines. (Author)

  4. Implications of greenhouse gas emission mitigation scenarios for the main Asian regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruijven, Bas J. van; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Vliet, Jasper van; Mendoza Beltran, Angelica; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Elzen, Michel G.J. den

    2012-01-01

    In order to limit global mean temperature increase, long-term greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced. This paper discusses the implications of greenhouse gas emission reductions for major Asian regions (China, India, Indonesia, South-East Asia, Japan and Korea) based on results from the IMAGE modelling framework. Energy use in regions and economic sectors is affected differently by ambitious climate policies. We find that the potential for emission reduction varies widely between regions. With respect to technology choices in the power sector, we find major application of CO 2 storage in Indonesia and India, whereas Korea and India apply more solar and wind. Projections for Japan include a (debatable) large share of nuclear power. China and, India, and South-East Asia, show a diverse technology choice in the power sector. For the industry sector, we find that the recent rapid growth in China limits the potential for emission reduction in the next decades, assuming that recently built coal-based industry facilities are in use for the next decades. For the residential sector, the model results show that fewer households switch from traditional fuels to modern fuels in GHG mitigation scenarios. With respect to co-benefits, we find lower imports of fossil energy in mitigation scenarios and a clear reduction of air pollutant emissions. - Highlights: ► The potential for emission reduction varies widely between regions. ► Some regions have attractive CO 2 storage capacity; others have low-cost solar/wind potential. ► The recent rapid growth of Chinese industry may limit emission reduction potential for decades. ► Fewer households switch from traditional fuels to modern fuels in mitigation scenarios. ► Mitigation scenarios show less fossil energy import and reduction of air pollutant emission.

  5. GHG emission scenarios in Asia and the world: The key technologies for significant reduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akashi, Osamu; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Masui, Toshihiko; Hanaoka, Tatsuya; Kainuma, Mikiko

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we explore GHG emission scenarios up to 2050 in Asia and the world as part of the Asian Modeling Exercise and assess technology options for meeting a 2.6 W/m 2 radiative forcing target using AIM/Enduse[Global] and AIM/Impact[Policy]. Global GHG emissions in 2050 are required to be reduced by 72% relative to a reference scenario, which corresponds to a 57% reduction from the 2005 level, in order to meet the above target. Energy intensity improvement contributes a lot to curbing CO 2 emission in the short-term. Meanwhile, carbon intensity reduction and CO 2 capture play a large role for further emission reduction in the mid to long-term. The top five key technologies in terms of reduction amount are CCS, solar power generation, wind power generation, biomass power generation and biofuel, which, in total, account for about 60% of global GHG emissions reduction in 2050. We implement additional model runs, each of which enforced limited availability of one of the key technology. The result shows that the 2.6 W/m 2 target up to 2050 is achievable even if availability of any one of the key technologies is limited to half the level achieved in the default simulation. However, if the use of CCS or biomass is limited, the cumulative GHG abatement cost until 2050 increases considerably. Therefore CCS and biomass have a vital role in curbing costs to achieve significant emission reductions. - Highlights: ► We explore GHG emission scenarios up to 2050 in Asia and the world. ► Significant GHG emission reduction is required to limit radiative forcing at low level. ► We assess technology options for achieving significant GHG emission reduction. ► CCS, solar power, wind power, and biomass are the key technologies for reduction. ► Especially, CCS and biomass play a vital role in curbing costs to achieve significant emission reductions.

  6. Fuel conservation and GHG (Greenhouse gas) emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hao, Han; Wang, Hewu; Ouyang, Minggao

    2011-01-01

    Passenger vehicles are the main consumers of gasoline in China. We established a bottom-up model which focuses on the simulation of energy consumptions and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions growth by China’s passenger vehicle fleet. The fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation effects of five measures including constraining vehicle registration, reducing vehicle travel, strengthening fuel consumption rate (FCR) limits, vehicle downsizing and promoting electric vehicle (EV) penetration were evaluated. Based on the combination of these measures, the fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet were analyzed. Under reference scenario with no measures implemented, the fuel consumptions and life cycle GHG emissions will reach 520 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) and 2.15 billion tons in 2050, about 8.1 times the level in 2010. However, substantial fuel conservation can be achieved by implementing the measures. By implementing all five measures together, the fuel consumption will reach 138 Mtoe in 2030 and decrease to 126 Mtoe in 2050, which is only 37.1% and 24.3% of the consumption under reference scenario. Similar potential lies in GHG mitigation. The results and scenarios provided references for the Chinese government’s policy-making. -- Highlights: ► We established a bottom-up model to simulate the fuel consumptions and GHG (Greenhouse gas) emissions growth by China’s passenger vehicle fleet. ► Five measures including constraining vehicle registration, reducing vehicle travel, improving fuel efficiency, vehicle downsizing and promoting EV penetration were evaluated. ► The fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet were provided as references for policy-making.

  7. CO_2 emission trends of China's primary aluminum industry: A scenario analysis using system dynamics model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Qiang; Zhang, Wenjuan; Li, Huiquan; He, Peng

    2017-01-01

    China announced its promise on CO_2 emission peak. When and what level of CO_2 emission peak China's primary aluminum industry will reach is in suspense. In this paper, a system dynamic model is established, with five subsystems of economy development, primary aluminum production, secondary aluminum production, CO_2 emission intensity and policies making involved. The model is applied to examine potential CO_2 emission trends of China's primary aluminum industry in next fifteen years with three scenarios of “no new policies”, “13th five-year plan” and “additional policies”. Simulation results imply that: merely relying on rapid expansion of domestic scarps recycling and reuse could not mitigate CO_2 emission continuously. Combination of energy-saving technology application and electrolytic technology innovation, as well as promoting hydropower utilization in primary aluminum industry are necessary for long term low-carbon development. From a global prospective, enhancing international cooperation on new primary aluminum capacity construction in other countries, especially with rich low-carbon energy, could bring about essential CO_2 emission for both China's and global primary aluminum industry. - Highlights: • A system dynamic model is established for future CO_2 emission trend of China's primary aluminum industry. • Three potential policy scenarios are simulated. • The impacts of potential policies implication on the CO_2 emission trend are discussed.

  8. Air emissions scenarios from ethanol as a gasoline oxygenate in Mexico City Metropolitan Area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia, Carlos A. [Posgrado en Ingenieria Energetica, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Priv. Xochicalco s/n, Col. Centro, Apartado Postal 34, 62580 Temixco, Morelos (Mexico); Manzini, Fabio; Islas, Jorge [Centro de Investigacion en Energia, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Priv. Xochicalco s/n, Col. Centro, Apartado Postal 34, 62580 Temixco, Morelos (Mexico)

    2010-12-15

    The Mexican Biofuel Introduction Program states that during year 2010 the three biggest Mexican cities will have a gasoline blending with 6% ethanol available for all gasoline on-road vehicle fleet. Also in 2010 Mexican government has programmed to start the substitution of Tier 1 - the adopted US emission standards - by Tier 2, which are more stringent emission standards for motor vehicles and gasoline sulfur control requirements. How will the air emissions in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) be modified by using this blending? Four scenarios up to year 2030 were constructed and simulated using the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning model. Beginning with a BAU or reference scenario, in this scenario the current available fuel is a blending composed by 5% methyl tertiary butyl ether and 95% gasoline (MTBE5). Then, three alternative scenarios that use ethanol as an oxygenate are considered, one with the already programmed E6 blending (6% anhydride ethanol, 94% gasoline), for the sake of comparison the E10 blending (10% anhydride ethanol, 90% gasoline), and the other alternative to compare, ETBE13.7 (13.7% ethyl tertiary butyl ether, 86.3% gasoline; where ETBE is an ether composed by 48% anhydride ethanol and 52% isobutene). Emissions of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), particulate matter (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO{sub 2}), total hydrocarbons (THC), benzene, formaldehyde, acetaldehyde and 1,3-butadiene were calculated using emission factors previously calculated using the adapted US-EPA computer model called MOBILE6-Mexico. Results show that Tier 1 and Tier 2 standards effectively lowers all emissions in all studied scenarios with the exception of PM10 and CO{sub 2} emissions. The alternative scenario E10 has the most total avoided emissions by weight but it is not the best when considering some individual pollutants. The greatest environmental benefit of ethanol in its final use as a gasoline oxygenate is for

  9. Transient Climate Impacts for Scenarios of Aerosol Emissions from Asia: A Story of Coal versus Gas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grandey, B. S.; Cheng, H.; Wang, C.

    2014-12-01

    Projections of anthropogenic aerosol emissions are uncertain. In Asia, it is possible that emissions may increase if business continues as usual, with economic growth driving an increase in coal burning. But it is also possible that emissions may decrease rapidly due to the widespread adoption of cleaner technology or a shift towards non-coal fuels, such as natural gas. In this study, the transient climate impacts of three aerosol emissions scenarios are investigated: an RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) control; a scenario with reduced Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions; and a scenario with enhanced Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions. A coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration of CESM (Community Earth System Model), including CAM5 (Community Atmosphere Model version 5), is used. Enhanced Asian aerosol emissions are found to delay global mean warming by one decade at the end of the century. Aerosol-induced suppression of the East Asian and South Asian summer monsoon precipitation occurs. The enhanced Asian aerosol emissions also remotely impact precipitation in other parts of the world: over the Sahel, West African monsoon precipitation is suppressed; and over Australia, austral summer monsoon precipitation is enhanced. These remote impacts on precipitation are associated with a southward shift of the ITCZ. The aerosol-induced sea surface temperature (SST) response appears to play an important role in the precipitation changes over South Asia and Australia, but not over East Asia. These results indicate that energy production in Asia, through the consequent aerosol emissions and associated radiative effects, might significantly influence future climate both locally and globally.

  10. Emissions inventory and scenario analyses of air pollutants in Guangdong Province, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hui; Meng, Jing

    2017-03-01

    Air pollution, causing significantly adverse health impacts and severe environmental problems, has raised great concerns in China in the past few decades. Guangdong Province faces major challenges to address the regional air pollution problem due to the lack of an emissions inventory. To fill this gap, an emissions inventory of primary fine particles (PM2.5) is compiled for the year 2012, and the key precursors (sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides) are identified. Furthermore, policy packages are simulated during the period of 2012‒2030 to investigate the potential mitigation effect. The results show that in 2012, SO2, NO x , and PM2.5 emissions in Guangdong Province were as high as (951.7, 1363.6, and 294.9) kt, respectively. Industrial production processes are the largest source of SO2 and PM2.5 emissions, and transport is the top contributor of NO x emissions. Both the baseline scenario and policy scenario are constructed based on projected energy growth and policy designs. Under the baseline scenario, SO2, NO x , and PM2.5 emissions will almost double in 2030 without proper emissions control policies. The suggested policies are categorized into end-of- pipe control in power plants (ECP), end-of-pipe control in industrial processes (ECI), fuel improvement (FI), energy efficiency improvement (EEI), substitution-pattern development (SPD), and energy saving options (ESO). With the implementation of all these policies, SO2, NO x , and PM2.5 emissions are projected to drop to (303.1, 585.4, and 102.4) kt, respectively, in 2030. This inventory and simulated results will provide deeper insights for policy makers to understand the present situation and the evolution of key emissions in Guangdong Province.

  11. Uncertainty in greenhouse-gas emission scenario projections: Experiences from Mexico and South Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Puig, Daniel

    This report outlines approaches to quantify the uncertainty associated with national greenhouse-gas emission scenario projections. It does so by describing practical applications of those approaches in two countries – Mexico and South Africa. The goal of the report is to promote uncertainty...

  12. Effect of a high-end CO2-emission scenario on hydrology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlsson, Ida Bjørnholt; Sonnenborg, Torben Obel; Seaby, Lauren Paige

    2015-01-01

    and the less extreme RCP4.5 emission scenario are evaluated for the future period 2071−2099. The downscaled climate variables are applied to a fully distributed, physically based, coupled surface−subsurface hydrological model based on the MIKE SHE model code. The impacts on soil moisture dynamics...

  13. Evaluating the use of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage in low emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaughan, Naomi E.; Gough, Clair; Mander, Sarah; Littleton, Emma W.; Welfle, Andrew; Gernaat, David E. H. J.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2018-04-01

    Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is heavily relied upon in scenarios of future emissions that are consistent with limiting global mean temperature increase to 1.5 °C or 2 °C above pre-industrial. These temperature limits are defined in the Paris Agreement in order to reduce the risks and impacts of climate change. Here, we explore the use of BECCS technologies in a reference scenario and three low emission scenarios generated by an integrated assessment model (IMAGE). Using these scenarios we investigate the feasibility of key implicit and explicit assumptions about these BECCS technologies, including biomass resource, land use, CO2 storage capacity and carbon capture and storage (CCS) deployment rate. In these scenarios, we find that half of all global CO2 storage required by 2100 occurs in USA, Western Europe, China and India, which is compatible with current estimates of regional CO2 storage capacity. CCS deployment rates in the scenarios are very challenging compared to historical rates of fossil, renewable or nuclear technologies and are entirely dependent on stringent policy action to incentivise CCS. In the scenarios, half of the biomass resource is derived from agricultural and forestry residues and half from dedicated bioenergy crops grown on abandoned agricultural land and expansion into grasslands (i.e. land for forests and food production is protected). Poor governance of the sustainability of bioenergy crop production can significantly limit the amount of CO2 removed by BECCS, through soil carbon loss from direct and indirect land use change. Only one-third of the bioenergy crops are grown in regions associated with more developed governance frameworks. Overall, the scenarios in IMAGE are ambitious but consistent with current relevant literature with respect to assumed biomass resource, land use and CO2 storage capacity.

  14. Inventories and reduction scenarios of urban waste-related greenhouse gas emissions for management potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Dewei; Xu, Lingxing; Gao, Xueli; Guo, Qinghai; Huang, Ning

    2018-06-01

    Waste-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been recognized as one of the prominent contributors to global warming. Current urban waste regulations, however, face increasing challenges from stakeholders' trade-offs and hierarchic management. A combined method, i.e., life cycle inventories and scenario analysis, was employed to investigate waste-related GHG emissions during 1995-2015 and to project future scenarios of waste-driven carbon emissions by 2050 in a pilot low carbon city, Xiamen, China. The process-based carbon analysis of waste generation (prevention and separation), transportation (collection and transfer) and disposal (treatment and recycling) shows that the main contributors of carbon emissions are associated with waste disposal processes, solid waste, the municipal sector and Xiamen Mainland. Significant spatial differences of waste-related CO 2e emissions were observed between Xiamen Island and Xiamen Mainland using the carbon intensity and density indexes. An uptrend of waste-related CO 2e emissions from 2015 to 2050 is identified in the business as usual, waste disposal optimization, waste reduction and the integrated scenario, with mean annual growth rates of 8.86%, 8.42%, 6.90% and 6.61%, respectively. The scenario and sensitivity analysis imply that effective waste-related carbon reduction requires trade-offs among alternative strategies, actions and stakeholders in a feasible plan, and emphasize a priority of waste prevention and collection in Xiamen. Our results could benefit to the future modeling of urban multiple wastes and life-cycle carbon control in similar cities within and beyond China. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Scenarios in decision-making. An application to CO2 emission reduction strategies in passenger transport

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rienstra, S.A.; Vleugel, J.M; Nijkamp, P. [Department of Social Economics, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam (Netherlands)] Smokers, R.T.M. [ECN Policy Studies, Petten (Netherlands)

    1995-12-01

    The usefulness of scenarios for decision-makers is analyzed. First, a theoretical introduction to the scenario methodology is presented. Next, four energy scenarios for West-European passenger transport are developed. To start with, the present transport system as a baseline case is described and analysed. For each scenario it is outlined how the passenger transport system may look like in terms of the use of various existing and future transport technologies and the corresponding modal split. Expected energy consumption features of the various transport modes are described, data on the present fuel supply and electricity generation system are presented, as well as estimations of the future energy system. The energy consumption and CO2 emissions associated with the future passenger transport systems are assessed and these impacts are compared with the current system. The conclusion is that these scenarios provide interesting policy options for decision-makers. A large-scale reduction of CO2 emissions is possible in several ways, but each way will cause many problems, since drastic policy measures will have to be introduced, which may affect economic growth and the lifestyles of individuals. 5 figs., 11 tabs., 24 refs.

  16. Future reef decalcification under a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dove, Sophie G; Kline, David I; Pantos, Olga; Angly, Florent E; Tyson, Gene W; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove

    2013-09-17

    Increasing atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) is a major threat to coral reefs, but some argue that the threat is mitigated by factors such as the variability in the response of coral calcification to acidification, differences in bleaching susceptibility, and the potential for rapid adaptation to anthropogenic warming. However the evidence for these mitigating factors tends to involve experimental studies on corals, as opposed to coral reefs, and rarely includes the influence of multiple variables (e.g., temperature and acidification) within regimes that include diurnal and seasonal variability. Here, we demonstrate that the inclusion of all these factors results in the decalcification of patch-reefs under business-as-usual scenarios and reduced, although positive, calcification under reduced-emission scenarios. Primary productivity was found to remain constant across all scenarios, despite significant bleaching and coral mortality under both future scenarios. Daylight calcification decreased and nocturnal decalcification increased sharply from the preindustrial and control conditions to the future scenarios of low (reduced emissions) and high (business-as-usual) increases in pCO2. These changes coincided with deeply negative carbonate budgets, a shift toward smaller carbonate sediments, and an increase in the abundance of sediment microbes under the business-as-usual emission scenario. Experimental coral reefs demonstrated highest net calcification rates and lowest rates of coral mortality under preindustrial conditions, suggesting that reef processes may not have been able to keep pace with the relatively minor environmental changes that have occurred during the last century. Taken together, our results have serious implications for the future of coral reefs under business-as-usual environmental changes projected for the coming decades and century.

  17. From carbonization to decarbonization?-Past trends and future scenarios for China's CO2 emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steckel, Jan Christoph; Jakob, Michael; Marschinski, Robert; Luderer, Gunnar

    2011-01-01

    Along the lines of the Kaya identity, we perform a decomposition analysis of historical and projected emissions data for China. We compare the results with reduction requirements implied by globally cost-effective mitigation scenarios and official Chinese policy targets. For the years 1971-2000 we find that the impact of high economic growth on emissions was partially compensated by a steady fall in energy intensity. However, the end - and even reversal - of this downward trend, along with a rising carbon intensity of energy, resulted in rapid emission growth during 2000-2007. By applying an innovative enhanced Kaya-decomposition method, we also show how the persistent increase in the use of coal has caused carbon intensity to rise throughout the entire time-horizon of the analysis. These insights are then compared to model scenarios for future energy system developments generated by the ReMIND-R model. The analysis reaffirms China's indispensable role in global efforts to implement any of three exemplary stabilization targets (400, 450, or 500 ppm CO 2 -only), and underscore the increasing importance of carbon intensity for the more ambitious targets. Finally, we compare China's official targets for energy intensity and carbon intensity of GDP to projections for global cost-effective stabilization scenarios, finding them to be roughly compatible in the short-to-mid-term. - Highlights: → An extended Kaya-decomposition is applied to historical data and ReMIND-R scenario results for China. → Reversing a historic trend, energy intensity has increased in recent years. → The contribution of coal in increasing carbon intensity and emissions has been constant in the past. → Decarbonization becomes increasingly important with increasingly ambitious climate targets. → Chinese targets for carbon intensity of GDP are in line with a 450 ppm CO 2 -only stabilization scenario.

  18. Scenario analysis on CO2 emissions reduction potential in China's iron and steel industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Ke; Wang Can; Lu Xuedu; Chen Jining

    2007-01-01

    The international climate community has begun to assess a range of possible options for strengthening the international climate change effort after 2012. Analysis of the potential for sector-based emissions reduction and relevant mitigation options will provide the necessary background information for the debate. In order to assess the CO 2 abatement potential of China's steel industry, a model was developed using LEAP software to generate 3 different CO 2 emission scenarios for the industry from 2000 to 2030. The abatement potentials of different scenarios were compared, and their respective feasibilities were assessed according to the cost information. High priority abatement measures were then identified. The results show that the average CO 2 abatement per year in the Recent Policy scenario and in the New Policy scenario, compared with the reference scenario, are 51 and 107 million tons, respectively. The corresponding total incremental costs are 9.34 and 80.95 billion dollars. It is concluded that there is great potential for CO 2 abatement in China's steel industry. Adjusting the structure of the industry and technological advancement will play an important role in emissions reduction. Successful implementation of current sustainable development policies and measures will result in CO 2 abatement at a low cost. However, to achieve higher levels of abatement, the cost will increase dramatically. In the near future, specific energy conservation technologies such as dry coke quenching, exhaust gas and heat recovery equipment will be of great significance. However, taking a long term perspective, emissions reduction will rely more on the adjustment of production processes and the application of more modern large scale plants. Advanced blast furnace technology will inevitably play an important role

  19. Evaluating climate change adaptation options for urban flooding in Copenhagen based on new high‐end emission scenario simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Leonhardsen, Lykke; Madsen, Henrik

    2014-01-01

    Climate change adaptation studies on urban flooding are often based on a model chain approach from climate forcing scenarios to analysis of adaptation measures. Previous analyses of impacts in Denmark using ensemble projections of the A1B scenario are supplemented by two high‐end scenario...... to change substantially. The impacts are assessed using Copenhagen as a case study. For both types of extremes large adaptation measures are essential in the global six degree scenario; dikes must be constructed to mitigate sea surge risk and a variety of measures to store or convey storm water must...... be implemented as well as new paradigms for city planning to mitigate the impact of change in extreme precipitation risk. For both hazards business‐as‐usual are not possible scenarios, because large autonomous adaptation will occur in lack of suitable policy‐driven changes. Copenhagen has developed an adaptation...

  20. Scenario analysis of China's emissions pathways in the 21st century for low carbon transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Tao; Watson, Jim

    2010-01-01

    China's growing demand for energy - and its dependence on coal - has seen its carbon emissions increase more than 50% since 2000. Within the debate about mitigating global climate change, there is mounting pressure for emerging economies like China to take more responsibility for reducing their carbon emissions within a post-2012 international climate change policy framework. For China, this leads to fundamental questions about how feasible it is for the country to shift away from its recent carbon intensive pattern of growth. This paper presents some general results of scenarios that have been developed to investigate how China might continue to develop within a cumulative carbon emissions budget. The results show how changes in the key sectors of the Chinese economy could enable China to follow four different low carbon development pathways, each of which complies with a cumulative emissions constraint. Each scenario reflects different priorities for governmental decision making, infrastructure investments and social preferences. Having compared the key features of each scenario, the paper concludes with some implications for Chinese government policy.

  1. Scenarios for regional passenger car fleets and their CO2 emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyer, Ina; Kaniovski, Serguei; Scheffran, Jürgen

    2012-01-01

    Passenger car traffic is among the main contributors to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which are responsible for climate change. It is also an important indicator used to forecast these emissions in integrated climate-economic models. This paper develops scenarios for global passenger car stock until 2050. The study adopts a global regionalized approach, encompassing 11 world regions. Car stock projections are obtained using a multi-model approach, which includes a consumer demand model based on utility maximization, a non-linear Gompertz model and a panel estimate of the income elasticity of demand for cars. The main hypothesis underlying these projections is that preferences for purchasing cars are similar across cultures and nations and that the demand for cars is largely determined by disposable income. We apply scenarios for the average traffic volume and fuel efficiency developed in previous work together with the average carbon content of fuels to obtain the CO 2 emissions. - Research highlights: ► This study develops scenarios for global passenger car stock, CO 2 emissions and fuel efficiency until 2050. ► In a global regionalized approach car stock projections are obtained using a multi-model approach. ► Compared are utility maximization, a non-linear Gompertz model and a panel estimate. ► Preferences for purchasing cars are similar across cultures and nations. ► The demand for cars is largely determined by disposable income.

  2. Achieving deep reductions in US transport greenhouse gas emissions: Scenario analysis and policy implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCollum, David; Yang, Christopher

    2009-01-01

    This paper investigates the potential for making deep cuts in US transportation greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the long-term (50-80% below 1990 levels by 2050). Scenarios are used to envision how such a significant decarbonization might be achieved through the application of advanced vehicle technologies and fuels, and various options for behavioral change. A Kaya framework that decomposes GHG emissions into the product of four major drivers is used to analyze emissions and mitigation options. In contrast to most previous studies, a relatively simple, easily adaptable modeling methodology is used which can incorporate insights from other modeling studies and organize them in a way that is easy for policymakers to understand. Also, a wider range of transportation subsectors is considered here-light- and heavy-duty vehicles, aviation, rail, marine, agriculture, off-road, and construction. This analysis investigates scenarios with multiple options (increased efficiency, lower-carbon fuels, and travel demand management) across the various subsectors and confirms the notion that there are no 'silver bullet' strategies for making deep cuts in transport GHGs. If substantial emission reductions are to be made, considerable action is needed on all fronts, and no subsectors can be ignored. Light-duty vehicles offer the greatest potential for emission reductions; however, while deep reductions in other subsectors are also possible, there are more limitations in the types of fuels and propulsion systems that can be used. In all cases travel demand management strategies are critical; deep emission cuts will not likely be possible without slowing growth in travel demand across all modes. Even though these scenarios represent only a small subset of the potential futures in which deep reductions might be achieved, they provide a sense of the magnitude of changes required in our transportation system and the need for early and aggressive action if long-term targets are to be met.

  3. Ship emissions and air pollution in Denmark. Present situation and future scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roerdam Olesen, H.; Winther, M.; Ellermann, T.; Christensen, Jesper; Plejdrup, M. (Aarhus Univ., National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus (Denmark))

    2009-07-01

    Ship traffic in the Danish marine waters is considered to be important for air quality in Danish cities and in Denmark in general. Since 2006 the so-called Automatic Identification System (AIS) has registered ship activities in Danish marine waters. All ships larger than 300 GT (Gross Tonnage) are required to carry a transponder, which transmits information on the ship's identity and position to land-based receiving stations. This information makes it possible to map ship emissions in much greater detail than previously feasible. This opportunity has now been utilised to create a new emission inventory for ships in the Danish marine waters. A main objective of this work is to assess the contribution from ships to concentration levels of various pollutants. For the modelling of concentrations, a new version of the air pollution model DEHM (Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model) has been applied - a version with a higher geographical resolution than the previous version. The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) has adopted new regulations in order to reduce pollution from ships with sulphur dioxide (SO{sub 2}) and nitrogen oxides (NO{sub X}) in the period until 2020. It is also the objective of this work to investigate the effect of this regulation on air quality in Denmark. This is done through scenario calculations for air quality for 2020 based on expected emission reductions. Also for land-based sources of SO{sub 2}, NO{sub x} and particles, emission reductions are envisaged before 2020. The scenario calculation for 2020 takes account of these reductions. As one of the main parts of the study a new, improved inventory of ship emissions in the Danish marine waters has been established. Both new (NERI) and old (EMEP, 2008) emission inventories have been applied for model calculations of air quality in Denmark, thus allowing an assessment of the effect of the revised inventory. Furthermore, scenario calculations for 2011 and 2020 have been carried out, in

  4. Future coal production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios: Are they plausible?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoeoek, Mikael

    2010-10-01

    Anthropogenic climate change caused by CO 2 emissions is strongly and fundamentally linked to the future energy production. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) from 2000 contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. Coal, with its 26% share of world energy, is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions and commonly seen as a key contributor to anthropogenic climate change. SRES contains a wide array of different coal production outlooks, ranging from a complete coal phase-out by 2100 to a roughly tenfold increase from present world production levels. Scenarios with high levels of global warming also have high expectations on future fossil fuel production. The assumptions on resource availability are in SRES based on Rogner's assessment of world hydrocarbon resources from 1997, where it is stated that 'the sheer size of the fossil resource base makes fossil sources an energy supply option for many centuries to come'. Regarding the future coal production it is simply assumed to be dependent on economics, accessibility, and environmental acceptance. It is also generally assumed that coal is abundant, and will thus take a dominating part in the future energy system. Depletion, geographical location and geological parameters are not given much influence in the scenario storylines. This study quantifies what the coal production projection in SRES would imply in reality. SRES is riddled with future production projections that would put unreasonable expectation on just a few countries or regions. Is it reasonable to expect that China, among the world's largest coal reserve and resource holder and producer, would increase their production by a factor of 8 over the next 90 years, as implied by certain scenarios? Can massive increases in global coal output really be justified from historical trends or will reality rule out some production outlooks as implausible? The fundamental assumptions

  5. Future coal production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios: Are they plausible?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoeoek, Mikael

    2010-10-15

    Anthropogenic climate change caused by CO{sub 2} emissions is strongly and fundamentally linked to the future energy production. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) from 2000 contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. Coal, with its 26% share of world energy, is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions and commonly seen as a key contributor to anthropogenic climate change. SRES contains a wide array of different coal production outlooks, ranging from a complete coal phase-out by 2100 to a roughly tenfold increase from present world production levels. Scenarios with high levels of global warming also have high expectations on future fossil fuel production. The assumptions on resource availability are in SRES based on Rogner's assessment of world hydrocarbon resources from 1997, where it is stated that 'the sheer size of the fossil resource base makes fossil sources an energy supply option for many centuries to come'. Regarding the future coal production it is simply assumed to be dependent on economics, accessibility, and environmental acceptance. It is also generally assumed that coal is abundant, and will thus take a dominating part in the future energy system. Depletion, geographical location and geological parameters are not given much influence in the scenario storylines. This study quantifies what the coal production projection in SRES would imply in reality. SRES is riddled with future production projections that would put unreasonable expectation on just a few countries or regions. Is it reasonable to expect that China, among the world's largest coal reserve and resource holder and producer, would increase their production by a factor of 8 over the next 90 years, as implied by certain scenarios? Can massive increases in global coal output really be justified from historical trends or will reality rule out some production outlooks as implausible? The

  6. Future atmospheric abundances and climate forcings from scenarios of global and regional hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velders, Guus J. M.; Fahey, David W.; Daniel, John S.; Andersen, Stephen O.; McFarland, Mack

    2015-12-01

    Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are manufactured for use as substitutes for ozone-depleting substances that are being phased out globally under Montreal Protocol regulations. While HFCs do not deplete ozone, many are potent greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change. Here, new global scenarios show that baseline emissions of HFCs could reach 4.0-5.3 GtCO2-eq yr-1 in 2050. The new baseline (or business-as-usual) scenarios are formulated for 10 HFC compounds, 11 geographic regions, and 13 use categories. The scenarios rely on detailed data reported by countries to the United Nations; projections of gross domestic product and population; and recent observations of HFC atmospheric abundances. In the baseline scenarios, by 2050 China (31%), India and the rest of Asia (23%), the Middle East and northern Africa (11%), and the USA (10%) are the principal source regions for global HFC emissions; and refrigeration (40-58%) and stationary air conditioning (21-40%) are the major use sectors. The corresponding radiative forcing could reach 0.22-0.25 W m-2 in 2050, which would be 12-24% of the increase from business-as-usual CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2050. National regulations to limit HFC use have already been adopted in the European Union, Japan and USA, and proposals have been submitted to amend the Montreal Protocol to substantially reduce growth in HFC use. Calculated baseline emissions are reduced by 90% in 2050 by implementing the North America Montreal Protocol amendment proposal. Global adoption of technologies required to meet national regulations would be sufficient to reduce 2050 baseline HFC consumption by more than 50% of that achieved with the North America proposal for most developed and developing countries.

  7. Carbon emission scenarios of China's power sector: Impact of controlling measures and carbon pricing mechanism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiang Liu

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The study constructs a low-carbon path analysis model of China's power sector based on TIMES model and presents a comparative analysis of carbon emissions under Reference, Low-Carbon and Enhanced Low-Carbon scenarios, and the main difference of the three scenarios is manifested by policy selection and policy strength. The conclusions are drawn as follows: (1 The peak of carbon emission in China's power sector will range from 4.0 GtCO2 to 4.8 GtCO2, which implies an increment of 0.5–1.3 billion or 14%–35% from the 2015 levels. (2 Introducing carbon price is an effective way to inhibit coal power and promote non-fossil fuels and Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage applications (CCUS. The carbon emission reduction effects will gradually increase with carbon price. When the carbon price attains to CN¥150 t−1CO2, the CO2 emission can decrease by 36% than that without carbon price. (3 CCUS is one of important contributing factor to reduce CO2 emission in power sector. Generally speaking, the development of non-fossil fuels and energy efficiency improvement are two main drivers for carbon mitigation, but once the carbon price reaches up to CN¥106 t−1CO2, the CCUS will be required to equip with thermal power units and its contribution on carbon emission reduction will remarkably increase. When carbon price increases to CN¥150 t−1CO2 in 2050, the application of CCUS will account for 44% of total emission reduction. (4 In the scenario with carbon price of CN¥150 t−1CO2, power sector would be decarbonized significantly, and the CO2 intensity will be 0.22 kgCO2 (kW h−1, but power sector is far from the goal that achieving net zero emission. In order to realize the long-term low greenhouse gas emission development goal that proposed by the Paris Agreement, more efforts are needed to be put to further reduce the carbon emission reduction of power sector. Based on the above scenario analysis, the study proposes four recommendations

  8. Greenhouse gas emissions from high demand, natural gas-intensive energy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Victor, D.G.

    1990-01-01

    Since coal and oil emit 70% and 30% more CO 2 per unit of energy than natural gas (methane), fuel switching to natural gas is an obvious pathway to lower CO 2 emissions and reduced theorized greenhouse warming. However, methane is, itself, a strong greenhouse gas so the CO 2 advantages of natural gas may be offset by leaks in the natural gas recovery and supply system. Simple models of atmospheric CO 2 and methane are used to test this hypothesis for several natural gas-intensive energy scenarios, including the work of Ausubel et al (1988). It is found that the methane leaks are significant and may increase the total 'greenhouse effect' from natural gas-intensive energy scenarios by 10%. Furthermore, because methane is short-lived in the atmosphere, leaking methane from natural gas-intensive, high energy growth scenarios effectively recharges the concentration of atmospheric methane continuously. For such scenarios, the problem of methane leaks is even more serious. A second objective is to explore some high demand scenarios that describe the role of methane leaks in the greenhouse tradeoff between gas and coal as energy sources. It is found that the uncertainty in the methane leaks from the natural gas system are large enough to consume the CO 2 advantages from using natural gas instead of coal for 20% of the market share. (author)

  9. Co2 emission scenarios for next centuries to obtain more complete simulations of the global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michelini, M.

    2001-01-01

    In the framework of a punctual Modeling of the Greenhouse Effect (report RT/ERG/2001/1) it is necessary to set CO2 Emission Scenarios for the next Centuries in order to obtain the complete evolution of the global warming. Some methodologies are described to approach such long term previsions. From the demand side, the growth of the consumes (which are affected by population and development) is correlated (supply side) with the technical-economic-environmental Evaluation of the future diffusion of classic sources (experienced in the past centuries) and of new Technologies and renewable sources. The previsions of the world population Growth are derived from the UNFPA publications. The degree of economic Development of the world Population in the very long term is obtained by simulating the Evolution of the Population across four main Areas characterized by different pro-capita consumes. Using these criteria two different Scenarios have been set-up and put into comparison with the SRES Scenarios published in the Third Assessment Report-WG1 of the IPCC. The cut at the year 2100 of the SRES Scenarios is also discussed. Simulations of the Global Warming in the long term have been performed with the two scenarios. These results are discussed together with the results of the Simulations reported by IPCC [it

  10. Evaluating Uncertainty in GHG Emission Scenarios: Mapping IAM Outlooks With an Energy System Phase Space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritchie, W. J.; Dowlatabadi, H.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change modeling relies on projections of future greenhouse gas emissions and other phenomena leading to changes in planetary radiative forcing (RF). Pathways for long-run fossil energy use that map to total forcing outcomes are commonly depicted with integrated assessment models (IAMs). IAMs structure outlooks for 21st-century emissions with various theories for developments in demographics, economics, land-use, energy markets and energy service demands. These concepts are applied to understand global changes in two key factors relevant for scenarios of carbon emissions: total energy use (E) this century and the carbon intensity of that energy (F/E). A simple analytical and graphical approach can also illustrate the full range of outcomes for these variables to determine if IAMs provide sufficient coverage of the uncertainty space for future energy use. In this talk, we present a method for understanding uncertainties relevant to RF scenario components in a phase space. The phase space of a dynamic system represents significant factors as axes to capture the full range of physically possible states. A two-dimensional phase space of E and F/E presents the possible system states that can lead to various levels of total 21st-century carbon emissions. Once defined in this way, a phase space of these energy system coordinates allows for rapid characterization of large IAM scenario sets with machine learning techniques. This phase space method is applied to the levels of RF described by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The resulting RCP phase space identifies characteristics of the baseline energy system outlooks provided by IAMs for IPCC Working Group III. We conduct a k-means cluster analysis to distinguish the major features of IAM scenarios for each RCP range. Cluster analysis finds the IAM scenarios in AR5 illustrate RCPs with consistent combinations of energy resources. This suggests IAM scenarios understate uncertainty ranges for future

  11. Future energy and emissions policy scenarios in Ireland for private car transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daly, Hannah E.; Ó Gallachóir, Brian P.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we use a technological model of Ireland's future car stock to simulate the impact of a range of policy measures on the baseline trend in energy demand in the period to 2030. The policies and measures modelled comprise meeting deployment targets for electric vehicles and compressed natural gas vehicles, an EU regulation for the improvement of vehicle efficiency, implementation of a national biofuel obligation, as well as several behavioural measures (encouraging modal shifting and reduced travel demand). The impact of the different measures simulated is measured in terms of their contribution to meeting Ireland's ambitious targets for energy savings, for renewable energy penetration and for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions. The results point to a possible improvement of 32% in car stock efficiency, the achievement of 7.8% renewable energy share of road and rail transport and a 22% reduction in non-ETS private car CO 2 emissions relative to 2009 levels. A scenario analysis on meeting the EV penetration target shows a significant range of CO 2 emissions reductions depending on the cars (and mileage) displaced and on the electricity generation portfolio. - Highlights: ► Private car policy scenarios for Ireland modelled. ► Impact of vehicle efficiency, fuel switching and behavioural measures evaluated. ► Highlights distance to EU non-ETS emissions and renewable energy targets. ► Analysis of EV target shows that GHG mitigation potential is very sensitive.

  12. A High Resolution Technology-based Emissions Inventory for Nepal: Present and Future Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadavarte, P.; Das, B.; Rupakheti, M.; Byanju, R.; Bhave, P.

    2016-12-01

    understand impacts of air pollution on health and climate in Kathmandu Valley and Nepal. Future emissions are being developed based on different possible growth scenarios and policy interventions to mitigate emissions.

  13. Climate change impacts on agriculture in 2050 under a range of plausible socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wiebe, Keith; Islam, Shahnila; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Robertson, Richard; Robinson, Sherman; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Biewald, Anne; Bodirsky, Benjamin; Müller, Christoph; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald; Tabeau, Andrzej; Van Meijl, Hans; Van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Kavallari, Aikaterini; Willenbockel, Dirk

    2015-01-01

    Previous studies have combined climate, crop and economic models to examine the impact of climate change on agricultural production and food security, but results have varied widely due to differences in models, scenarios and input data. Recent work has examined (and narrowed) these differences through systematic model intercomparison using a high-emissions pathway to highlight the differences. This paper extends that analysis to explore a range of plausible socioeconomic scenarios and emission pathways. Results from multiple climate and economic models are combined to examine the global and regional impacts of climate change on agricultural yields, area, production, consumption, prices and trade for coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar crops to 2050. We find that climate impacts on global average yields, area, production and consumption are similar across shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP 1, 2 and 3, as we implement them based on population, income and productivity drivers), except when changes in trade policies are included. Impacts on trade and prices are higher for SSP 3 than SSP 2, and higher for SSP 2 than for SSP 1. Climate impacts for all variables are similar across low to moderate emissions pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0), but increase for a higher emissions pathway (RCP 8.5). It is important to note that these global averages may hide regional variations. Projected reductions in agricultural yields due to climate change by 2050 are larger for some crops than those estimated for the past half century, but smaller than projected increases to 2050 due to rising demand and intrinsic productivity growth. Results illustrate the sensitivity of climate change impacts to differences in socioeconomic and emissions pathways. Yield impacts increase at high emissions levels and vary with changes in population, income and technology, but are reduced in all cases by endogenous changes in prices and other variables. (paper)

  14. Testing the Young Neutron Star Scenario with Persistent Radio Emission Associated with FRB 121102

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kashiyama, Kazumi; Murase, Kohta

    2017-01-01

    Recently a repeating fast radio burst (FRB) 121102 has been confirmed to be an extragalactic event and a persistent radio counterpart has been identified. While other possibilities are not ruled out, the emission properties are broadly consistent with Murase et al. that theoretically proposed quasi-steady radio emission as a counterpart of both FRBs and pulsar-driven supernovae. Here, we constrain the model parameters of such a young neutron star scenario for FRB 121102. If the associated supernova has a conventional ejecta mass of M ej ≳ a few M ⊙ , a neutron star with an age of t age ∼ 10–100 years, an initial spin period of P i ≲ a few ms, and a dipole magnetic field of B dip ≲ a few × 10 13 G can be compatible with the observations. However, in this case, the magnetically powered scenario may be favored as an FRB energy source because of the efficiency problem in the rotation-powered scenario. On the other hand, if the associated supernova is an ultra-stripped one or the neutron star is born by the accretion-induced collapse with M ej ∼ 0.1 M ⊙ , a younger neutron star with t age ∼ 1–10 years can be the persistent radio source and might produce FRBs with the spin-down power. These possibilities can be distinguished by the decline rate of the quasi-steady radio counterpart.

  15. Testing the Young Neutron Star Scenario with Persistent Radio Emission Associated with FRB 121102

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kashiyama, Kazumi [Department of Physics, The University of Tokyo, Bunkyo, Tokyo 113-0033 (Japan); Murase, Kohta [Department of Physics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802 (United States)

    2017-04-10

    Recently a repeating fast radio burst (FRB) 121102 has been confirmed to be an extragalactic event and a persistent radio counterpart has been identified. While other possibilities are not ruled out, the emission properties are broadly consistent with Murase et al. that theoretically proposed quasi-steady radio emission as a counterpart of both FRBs and pulsar-driven supernovae. Here, we constrain the model parameters of such a young neutron star scenario for FRB 121102. If the associated supernova has a conventional ejecta mass of M {sub ej} ≳ a few M {sub ⊙}, a neutron star with an age of t {sub age} ∼ 10–100 years, an initial spin period of P{sub i} ≲ a few ms, and a dipole magnetic field of B {sub dip} ≲ a few × 10{sup 13} G can be compatible with the observations. However, in this case, the magnetically powered scenario may be favored as an FRB energy source because of the efficiency problem in the rotation-powered scenario. On the other hand, if the associated supernova is an ultra-stripped one or the neutron star is born by the accretion-induced collapse with M {sub ej} ∼ 0.1 M {sub ⊙}, a younger neutron star with t {sub age} ∼ 1–10 years can be the persistent radio source and might produce FRBs with the spin-down power. These possibilities can be distinguished by the decline rate of the quasi-steady radio counterpart.

  16. Environment and mobility 2050: scenarios for a 75% reduction in CO2 emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopez-Ruiz, H.G.

    2009-10-01

    In France an objective of dividing greenhouse gas emissions by four, from the 1990 level, by 2050 has been set. Are these ambitions out of our reach? What will the price to pay for this objective be? We have built a long-term back-casting transport demand model (TILT, Transport Issues in the Long Term) . This model is centered on defined behavior types - in which the speed-GDP elasticity plays a key role - in order to determine demand estimations. This model lets us understand past tendencies - the coupling between growth and personal and freight mobility and adapt behavioral hypothesis - linked to the evolution of public policies - in order to show how a 75% reduction objective can be attained. The main results are an estimation of CO 2 emissions for the transport sector taking into account technical progress and demand. These results are presented as three scenario families named: Pegasus, Chronos and Hestia. Each family corresponds to a growing degree of constraint on mobility. It is possible to divide greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector by four. Technical progress is able to lead to more than half of these reductions. The interest of these scenarios is to show that there exist different paths - through organizational change - to getting the other half of the reductions. (author)

  17. Large Gain in Air Quality Compared to an Alternative Anthropogenic Emissions Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daskalakis, Nikos; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Myriokefalitakis, Stelios; Fanourgakis, George S.; Kanakidou, Maria

    2016-01-01

    During the last 30 years, significant effort has been made to improve air quality through legislation for emissions reduction. Global three-dimensional chemistrytransport simulations of atmospheric composition over the past 3 decades have been performed to estimate what the air quality levels would have been under a scenario of stagnation of anthropogenic emissions per capita as in 1980, accounting for the population increase (BA1980) or using the standard practice of neglecting it (AE1980), and how they compare to the historical changes in air quality levels. The simulations are based on assimilated meteorology to account for the yearto- year observed climate variability and on different scenarios of anthropogenic emissions of pollutants. The ACCMIP historical emissions dataset is used as the starting point. Our sensitivity simulations provide clear indications that air quality legislation and technology developments have limited the rapid increase of air pollutants. The achieved reductions in concentrations of nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, black carbon, and sulfate aerosols are found to be significant when comparing to both BA1980 and AE1980 simulations that neglect any measures applied for the protection of the environment. We also show the potentially large tropospheric air quality benefit from the development of cleaner technology used by the growing global population. These 30-year hindcast sensitivity simulations demonstrate that the actual benefit in air quality due to air pollution legislation and technological advances is higher than the gain calculated by a simple comparison against a constant anthropogenic emissions simulation, as is usually done. Our results also indicate that over China and India the beneficial technological advances for the air quality may have been masked by the explosive increase in local population and the disproportional increase in energy demand partially due to the globalization of the economy.

  18. Large gain in air quality compared to an alternative anthropogenic emissions scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Daskalakis

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available During the last 30 years, significant effort has been made to improve air quality through legislation for emissions reduction. Global three-dimensional chemistry-transport simulations of atmospheric composition over the past 3 decades have been performed to estimate what the air quality levels would have been under a scenario of stagnation of anthropogenic emissions per capita as in 1980, accounting for the population increase (BA1980 or using the standard practice of neglecting it (AE1980, and how they compare to the historical changes in air quality levels. The simulations are based on assimilated meteorology to account for the year-to-year observed climate variability and on different scenarios of anthropogenic emissions of pollutants. The ACCMIP historical emissions dataset is used as the starting point. Our sensitivity simulations provide clear indications that air quality legislation and technology developments have limited the rapid increase of air pollutants. The achieved reductions in concentrations of nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, black carbon, and sulfate aerosols are found to be significant when comparing to both BA1980 and AE1980 simulations that neglect any measures applied for the protection of the environment. We also show the potentially large tropospheric air quality benefit from the development of cleaner technology used by the growing global population. These 30-year hindcast sensitivity simulations demonstrate that the actual benefit in air quality due to air pollution legislation and technological advances is higher than the gain calculated by a simple comparison against a constant anthropogenic emissions simulation, as is usually done. Our results also indicate that over China and India the beneficial technological advances for the air quality may have been masked by the explosive increase in local population and the disproportional increase in energy demand partially due to the globalization of the economy.

  19. The Emissions Scenarios Portal: Visualizing Low-Carbon Pathways for the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hennig, R. J.; Friedrich, J.; Ge, M.; Mountford, H.; Fransen, T.; Altamirano, J. C.; Thanawala, Z.; Arcipowska, A.

    2017-12-01

    The Emissions Scenarios Portal (ESP) is a newly developed exploration tool for 21st century low-carbon pathways and investigation of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC's) that countries have put forward under the Paris Agreement. It is open to the public and aims to help achieve the goal of limiting global temperature increase to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by enhancing access to high-quality, up-to-date scenario information. It can guide users to set ambitious, realistic emission mitigation goals and understand what these goals imply for different sectors of the economy. Data will be integrated from a wide variety of economic and energy-system models with results from both national models as well as globally integrated assessment models (IAM's) and countries biennial update reports (BUR's). This information can support policy and investment decision making that will lead to a low carbon future. It is designed to help find answers to questions such as "Are the NDC's enough to put the world on a 2DC track?", "What do NDC's imply for different sectors of the economy under different assumptions?" or "What are good ways to increase ambition beyond NDC's?". The portal strives to achieve both inter-comparability across a wide range of different models and nationally reported scenarios, as well as flexibility to allow modelers to bring out the strengths and purpose of their model on the platform. Furthermore, it aims to enhance standardized and transparent reporting of emissions scenarios and relevant metadata, assumptions and results to improve understanding, accessibility and impact of the scenarios. On the data side, these rivaling objectives present interesting challenges for both the collection and communication of the data and in this presentation we will present some of our ideas for tackling these. This project will be part of Climate Watch, a new data platform developed jointly by the World Resources Institute and the NDC

  20. Emissions from international shipping. Pt. 2: Impact of future technologies - scenarios for the years 2020 and 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eyring, V.; Lauer, A.; Lemper, B.

    2004-01-01

    We use the today's fleet-average emission factors of the most important ship exhausts to calculate emission scenarios for the future. To develop plausible future scenarios we first discuss upcoming regulations and compliance with future regulations through technological improvements. We present geographically resolved emission inventory forecast scenarios for the years 2020 and 2050. The scenarios are based on some very strict assumptions of future ship traffic demand and technological improvements. The future ship traffic demand scenario is mainly determined by the economic growth and the growth in world seaborne trade and distinguishes between different ship types. The annual growth rates of sea trade volumes and expected vessel traffic density is assumed to be smaller for today's most frequently sailed routes (in particular east-west-trades) than for those that are currently less frequently sailed (in particular south-north-trades). This leads to an adjustment of the number of ships sailing the different shipping routes in 2020 and even stronger in 2050. For the future technology scenarios we assume a diesel-only fleet in 2020 resulting in an estimated fuel consumption of 422 million metric tons (Mt) and 1226 Tg CO 2 emissions. For 2050 one scenario for fuel consumption assumes that 25% of the fuel consumed by a diesel-only fleet can be saved by using future alternative propulsion plants, resulting in a fuel consumption of 422 Mt and 1339 Tg CO 2 emissions in 2050. The other scenario is a business-as-usual scenario for a diesel-only fleet even in 2050 and gives an estimate of 646 Mt and 1783 Tg CO 2 emissions in 2050. Dependent on how rapid technology improvements for diesel engines are introduced we present four different technology scenarios. (orig.)

  1. Projected changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells in a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario

    OpenAIRE

    Pascale, Salvatore; Lucarini, Valerio; Feng, Xue; Porporato, Amilcare; ul Hasson, Shabeh

    2016-01-01

    In this diagnostic study we analyze changes of rainfall seasonality and dry spells by the end of the twenty-first century under the most extreme IPCC5 emission scenario (RCP8.5) as projected by twenty-four coupled climate models contributing to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). We use estimates of the centroid of the monthly rainfall distribution as an index of the rainfall timing and a threshold-independent, information theory-based quantity such as relative entropy (RE) to qu...

  2. Effects of IPCC SRES* emissions scenarios on river runoff: a global perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. W. Arnell

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes an assessment of the implications of future climate change for river runoff across the entire world, using six climate models which have been driven by the SRES emissions scenarios. Streamflow is simulated at a spatial resolution of 0.5°x0.5° using a macro-scale hydrological model, and summed to produce total runoff for almost 1200 catchments. The effects of climate change have been compared with the effects of natural multi-decadal climatic variability, as determined from a long unforced climate simulation using HadCM3. By the 2020s, change in runoff due to climate change in approximately a third of the catchments is less than that due to natural variability but, by the 2080s, this falls to between 10 and 30%. The climate models produce broadly similar changes in runoff, with increases in high latitudes, east Africa and south and east Asia, and decreases in southern and eastern Europe, western Russia, north Africa and the Middle East, central and southern Africa, much of North America, most of South America, and south and east Asia. The pattern of change in runoff is largely determined by simulated change in precipitation, offset by a general increase in evaporation. There is little difference in the pattern of change between different emissions scenarios (for a given model, and only by the 2080s is there evidence that the magnitudes of change in runoff vary, with emissions scenario A1FI producing the greatest change and B1 the smallest. The inter-annual variability in runoff increases in most catchments due to climate change — even though the inter-annual variability in precipitation is not changed — and the frequency of flow below the current 10-year return period minimum annual runoff increases by a factor of three in Europe and southern Africa and of two across North America. Across most of the world climate change does not alter the timing of flows through the year but, in the marginal zone between cool and

  3. Exploring synergies between climate and air quality policies using long-term global and regional emission scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Braspenning Radu, Olivia; van den Berg, Maarten; Klimont, Zbigniew; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Muntean, Marilena; Heyes, Chris; Dentener, Frank; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    Abstract In this paper, we present ten scenarios developed using the IMAGE2.4 framework (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment) to explore how different assumptions on future climate and air pollution policies influence emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. These scenarios

  4. Decarbonizing the Global Economy - An Integrated Assessment of Low Carbon Emission Scenarios proposed in Climate Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hokamp, Sascha; Khabbazan, Mohammad Mohammadi

    2017-04-01

    In 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP 21) reaffirmed to targeting the global mean temperature rise below 2 °C in 2100 while finding no consent on decarbonizing the global economy, and instead, the final agreement called for enhanced scientific investigation of low carbon emission scenarios (UNFCC, 2015). In addition, the Climate Action Network International (CAN) proposes Special Reports to address decarbonization and low carbon development including 1.5 °C scenarios (IPCC, 2016). In response to these developments, we investigate whether the carbon emission cuts, in accordance with the recent climate policy proposals, may reach the climate target. To tackle this research question, we employ the coupled climate-energy-economy integrated assessment Model of INvestment and endogenous technological Development (MIND, cf. Edenhofer et al., 2005, Neubersch et al. 2014). Extending MIND's climate module to the two-box version used in the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE, cf. Nordhaus and Sztorc, 2013, Nordhaus 2014), we perform a cost-effectiveness analysis with constraints on anthropogenic carbon emissions. We show that a climate policy scenario with early decarbonization complies with the 2° C climate target, even without Carbon Capturing and Storage (CCS) or negative emissions (see van Vuuren et al., 2013, for negative emissions). However, using emission inertia of 3.7 percent annually, reflecting the inflexibility on transforming the energy sector, we find a climate policy with moderately low emissions from 2100 onwards at a cost in terms of Balanced Growth Equivalents (BGE, cf. Anthoff and Tol, 2009) of 0.764 % that requires an early (2035 vs. 2120) peak of investments in renewable energy production compared to a business-as-usual scenario. Hence, decarbonizing the global economy and achieving the 2 °C target might still be possible before 2100, but the window of opportunity is beginning to close. References: Anthoff, D., and Tol, R

  5. Power plant emissions: particulate matter-related health damages and the benefits of alternative emission reduction scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schneider, C.

    2004-06-15

    This report estimates the avoidable health effects of each of a series of alternative regulatory scenarios for power plants, focusing on the adverse human health effects due to exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) This report uses the same analytical methods that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency used in 2003 to prepare an analysis of the potential health effects of the proposed Clear Skies Act (EPA 2003). This report conducts an analysis of the impacts in 2010 and 2020 of three policy alternatives to the proposed Clear Skies Act, The Jeffords/Lieberman/Collins 'The Clean Power Act', S. 366, and the EPA August 2001 Straw Proposal (one of several alternatives EPA analyzed prior to the announcement of the Clear Skies Initiative in 2002). The report also examines the health impacts associated with the total emissions from coal fired electricity generating units in 2010. Chapter 2 describes the emissions inventory estimates, and the changes in the emissions associated with each scenario analyzed. Chapter 3 describes the methods used to estimate changes in particulate matter concentrations. Chapter 4 describes general issues arising in estimating and valuing changes in adverse health effects associated with changes in particulate matter. Chapter 5 describes in some detail the methods used for estimating and valuing adverse health effects, and Chapter 6 presents the results of these analyses. Chapter 7 presents estimates of the impact of these alternative policy options on the PM non-attainment status. 117 refs., 21 figs., 32 tabs., 3 apps.

  6. Energy and emission scenarios for China in the 21st century - exploration of baseline development and mitigation options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vuuren, Detlef van; Zhou Fengqi; Vries, Bert de; Jiang Kejun; Graveland, Cor; Li Yun

    2003-01-01

    In this paper, we have used the simulation model IMAGE/TIMER to develop a set of energy and emission scenarios for China between 1995 and 2100, based on the global baseline scenarios published by IPCC. The purpose of the study was to explore possible baseline developments and available options to mitigate emissions. The two main baseline scenarios of the study differ, among others, in the openness of the Chinese economy and in economic growth, but both indicate a rapid growth in carbon emissions (2.0% and 2.6% per year in the 2000-2050 period). The baseline scenario analysis also shows that an orientation on environmental sustainability can not only reduce other environmental pressures but also lower carbon emissions. In the mitigation analysis, a large number of options has been evaluated in terms of impacts on investments, user costs, fuel imports costs and emissions. It is found that a large potential exists to mitigate carbon emissions in China, among others in the form of energy efficiency improvement (with large co-benefits) and measures in the electricity sector. Combining all options considered, it appears to be possible to reduce emissions compared to the baseline scenarios by 50%

  7. Norwegian Arctic climate. Climate influencing emissions, scenarios and mitigation options at Svalbard

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vestreng, Vigdis; Kallenborn, Roland; Oekstad, Elin

    2010-07-01

    The goal of this study was to establish an emission inventory and emission scenarios for climate influencing compounds at Svalbard, as a basis to develop strategies for emission reduction measures and policies. Emissions for the years 2000-2007 have been estimated for the Svalbard Zone. This area, covering about 173 000 km{sub 2}, ranges from 10 E to 35 E longitude and 74 N to 81 N latitude (Figure 1). In addition, air and ship transport between Tromsoe at the Norwegian mainland and Svalbard has been included. Pollutants considered in our inventory are carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), methane (CH{sub 4}), Sulphur dioxide (SO{sub 2}), Nitrogen oxides (NO{sub x} as NO{sub 2}), and for the first time also estimates of black carbon (BC, soot) and organic carbon (OC) have been included. Our results show that emissions of all pollutants have increased over the time span 2000-2007 (Figure 2), and are expected to increase also in the future if additional measures are not implemented (Figure 12). The emissions from Svalbard are minuscule compared to emission released from the Norwegian mainland and waters (1% in the case of CO{sub 2}). Even so, local releases of climate influencing compounds in the vulnerable Arctic may turn out to make a difference both with respect to adverse environmental effects and to climate change. Emissions have been estimated for all activities of any significance taking place at and around Svalbard. Combustion sources as well as fugitive emissions of methane are included. The main sectors are coal mining, energy production and transportation. Pollution from 28 sub sectors related to these activities has been estimated. The scope of this work differs from that covered by national inventories since emission estimates are based on the fuel consumed and include emissions from international shipping and aviation. Fuel consumption data were collected from local authorities, institutions and industry. Emission factors have been selected from relevant

  8. Photochemical modelling of photo-oxidant levels over the Swiss plateau and emission reduction scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosselet, C.M.; Kerr, J.A.

    1993-05-01

    During summertime high pressure conditions, high photo-oxidant (O 3 , H 2 O 2 , PAN and others) levels are frequently observed in the planetary boundary layer in central Europe. It is well known that close to the earth's surface ozone is formed by complex reactions involving VOC, NO x , and sunlight. Substantial reductions of both precursors are needed to reduce photo-oxidant levels. In this context the reductions of the abundance of the precursors and the variation of their ratios is of great importance. Here we report model calculations from the Harwell Photochemical Trajectory Model of the levels of O 3 , H 2 O 2 and PAN along a trajectory over the Swiss Plateau from Lake Constance to Lake Geneva. These calculations are in satisfactory agreement with measurements made during the intensive observation period of the research program POLLUMET (Pollution and Meteorology in Switzerland). Sensitivity calculations of emission reduction scenarios indicate that on the Swiss Plateau the ozone production may be mainly NO x -limited; under conditions where the CO levels are closer to the upper limit within the range (120-600 ppbv). The calculated peak ozone level reduction caused by an exclusive NO x -emission reduction is about three times larger than that caused by an exclusive VOC reduction. The combined reduction of all precursor compounds is the most efficient strategy, although it is only marginally more efficient than the NO x -reduction scenario alone. (author) figs., tabs., 75 refs

  9. N2O emissions from the global agricultural nitrogen cycle – current state and future scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Lotze-Campen

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Reactive nitrogen (Nr is not only an important nutrient for plant growth, thereby safeguarding human alimentation, but it also heavily disturbs natural systems. To mitigate air, land, aquatic, and atmospheric pollution caused by the excessive availability of Nr, it is crucial to understand the long-term development of the global agricultural Nr cycle. For our analysis, we combine a material flow model with a land-use optimization model. In a first step we estimate the state of the Nr cycle in 1995. In a second step we create four scenarios for the 21st century in line with the SRES storylines. Our results indicate that in 1995 only half of the Nr applied to croplands was incorporated into plant biomass. Moreover, less than 10 per cent of all Nr in cropland plant biomass and grazed pasture was consumed by humans. In our scenarios a strong surge of the Nr cycle occurs in the first half of the 21st century, even in the environmentally oriented scenarios. Nitrous oxide (N2O emissions rise from 3 Tg N2O-N in 1995 to 7–9 in 2045 and 5–12 Tg in 2095. Reinforced Nr pollution mitigation efforts are therefore required.

  10. Changes in land cover and carbon emissions to 2050 from African tropical forests using policy scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laporte, N.; Galford, G. L.; Soares Filho, B. S.

    2011-12-01

    Africa has the second largest block of rainforest in the world, next to the Amazon basin, with the majority of the carbon being stored in the dense humid forests of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Historically, political instability in the DRC kept development and deforestation low, with primary forest uses being extensive logging and small scale agriculture. In the last decade, political stability has opened the country to foreign investment in forested areas, largely for industrial-scale oil palm plantations and more recently to rice production. The DRC ranks worst on the IFPRI global hunger index, scoring "extremely serious" based on the proportion of undernourished population, prevalence of underweight in children under 5 and the mortality rates of children under 5. In fact, DRC saw its hunger score increase (worsen) from 1990 to 2010, with a 66% gain compared to the other 8 worsening countries increasing only 21% or less. This is a critical time for policy in the DRC, where business-as-usual (relatively low deforestation rates) is unlikely to continue given today's relative political stability and economic stabilization compared to the 1990s. The country must examine options for forest conservation in balance with foreign investment for use of forest resources, national development of rural livelihoods and domestic production of food. Here we present deforestation trajectories simulated through the year 2050 under a set of scenarios. The scenarios consider the relative carbon emissions from business-as-usual (no new policy), conservation (policy favoring protection and enforcement for forest areas), and a food security scenario (favoring clearing for industrial agriculture, extractive timber resources and development of new agricultural areas). Carbon emissions for each scenario are estimated with a coupled bookkeeping model. These scenarios are not predictive of the future, rather, they are meant to provide an understanding of the outcomes of

  11. Guidance for a harmonized emission scenario document (ESD) on ballast water discharge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zipperle, Andreas [BIS - Beratungszentrum fuer integriertes Sedimentmanagement, Hamburg (Germany); Gils, Jos van [DELTARES, Delft (Netherlands); Hattum, Bert van [Amsterdam Univ. (Netherlands). IVM - Institute for Environmental Studies; Heise, Susanne [BIS - Beratungszentrum fuer integriertes Sedimentmanagement, Hamburg (Germany); Hamburg Univ. of Applied Sciences (Germany)

    2011-05-15

    The present report provides guidance for a harmonized Emission Scenario Document (ESD) for the exposure assessment as part of the environmental risk assessment process which applicants seeking approval of a ballast water management system (BWMS) need to perform prior to notification and authorisation procedures. Despite the global variability of the marine environment, ballast water discharges and treatment methods, exposure assessments need to be comparable between different applications. In order to achieve this, this ESD points out the following aspects: - Applicants should use standardized scenarios in order to predict mean exposure. These should reflect generic situations, independent of region or port so that results are widely applicable. In addition to a harbour scenario, a standardized shipping lane scenario should be considered, - During or right after ballast water discharge, high concentrations may persist in a water body for a certain length of time until extensive mixing results in mean concentrations. Not taking exposure to peak concentrations within gradients into account could lead to an underestimation of risk, especially for rapidly degrading substances. Efforts have been made to approximate maximum exposure concentration with simple dilution factors. Their applicability was checked by near-field-evaluations. - Chemical properties determine the environmental fate of substances. If they are ambiguous, selection of a specific set of data strongly influences the result of an exposure assessment. Guidance is given on what to do about lacking data. - In order to harmonize the exposure assessments, reliable chemical model software should be used. A discussion on the requirements of suitable software and an evaluation of MAMPEC is given in this report. (orig.)

  12. Modeling Future Land Use Scenarios in South Korea: Applying the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and the SLEUTH Model on a Local Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

    2015-05-01

    This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of `best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

  13. Modeling future land use scenarios in South Korea: applying the IPCC special report on emissions scenarios and the SLEUTH model on a local scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

    2015-05-01

    This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of 'best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

  14. Monte-Carlo simulations and image reconstruction for novel imaging scenarios in emission tomography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gillam, John E.; Rafecas, Magdalena

    2016-01-01

    Emission imaging incorporates both the development of dedicated devices for data acquisition as well as algorithms for recovering images from that data. Emission tomography is an indirect approach to imaging. The effect of device modification on the final image can be understood through both the way in which data are gathered, using simulation, and the way in which the image is formed from that data, or image reconstruction. When developing novel devices, systems and imaging tasks, accurate simulation and image reconstruction allow performance to be estimated, and in some cases optimized, using computational methods before or during the process of physical construction. However, there are a vast range of approaches, algorithms and pre-existing computational tools that can be exploited and the choices made will affect the accuracy of the in silico results and quality of the reconstructed images. On the one hand, should important physical effects be neglected in either the simulation or reconstruction steps, specific enhancements provided by novel devices may not be represented in the results. On the other hand, over-modeling of device characteristics in either step leads to large computational overheads that can confound timely results. Here, a range of simulation methodologies and toolkits are discussed, as well as reconstruction algorithms that may be employed in emission imaging. The relative advantages and disadvantages of a range of options are highlighted using specific examples from current research scenarios.

  15. Monte-Carlo simulations and image reconstruction for novel imaging scenarios in emission tomography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gillam, John E. [The University of Sydney, Faculty of Health Sciences and The Brain and Mind Centre, Camperdown (Australia); Rafecas, Magdalena, E-mail: rafecas@imt.uni-luebeck.de [University of Lubeck, Institute of Medical Engineering, Ratzeburger Allee 160, 23538 Lübeck (Germany)

    2016-02-11

    Emission imaging incorporates both the development of dedicated devices for data acquisition as well as algorithms for recovering images from that data. Emission tomography is an indirect approach to imaging. The effect of device modification on the final image can be understood through both the way in which data are gathered, using simulation, and the way in which the image is formed from that data, or image reconstruction. When developing novel devices, systems and imaging tasks, accurate simulation and image reconstruction allow performance to be estimated, and in some cases optimized, using computational methods before or during the process of physical construction. However, there are a vast range of approaches, algorithms and pre-existing computational tools that can be exploited and the choices made will affect the accuracy of the in silico results and quality of the reconstructed images. On the one hand, should important physical effects be neglected in either the simulation or reconstruction steps, specific enhancements provided by novel devices may not be represented in the results. On the other hand, over-modeling of device characteristics in either step leads to large computational overheads that can confound timely results. Here, a range of simulation methodologies and toolkits are discussed, as well as reconstruction algorithms that may be employed in emission imaging. The relative advantages and disadvantages of a range of options are highlighted using specific examples from current research scenarios.

  16. Emission Scenario Document for Biocides Emission scenarios for all 23 product types of the Biocidal Products Directive (EU Directive 98/8/EC)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Poel P van der; Bakker J; CSR

    2002-01-01

    Dit rapport geeft een overzicht van de beschikbare emissiescenario's voor niet-landbouwbestrijdingsmiddelen voor alle 23 productgroepen uit de biocide richtlijn (EU Richtlijn 98/8/EC). Het betreft scenario's die reeds in USES 3.0 zijn opgenomen, alsmede scenario's die

  17. The power sector in China and India: greenhouse gas emissions reduction potential and scenarios for 1990-2020

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kroeze, Carolien; Vlasblom, Jaklien; Gupta, Joyeeta; Boudri, Christiaan; Blok, Kornelis

    2004-01-01

    Emissions of greenhouse gases from China and India are expected to increase in the coming two decades. The objectives of this study are two-fold: (1) to quantify the technical potential of various options to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases from the electricity sector in China and India in the year 2020, and (2) to evaluate a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario plus a number of best practice technology (BPT) scenarios for emission reduction of greenhouse gases from electricity production in China and India up to the year 2020. Options to reduce emissions include end use efficiency improvement, fuel switches, and efficiency improvement of existing and new power plants. For China, we calculated that the individual options analysed have technical potentials to reduce 2020 emissions ranging from 1% to 43% (relative to 2020 unabated emissions) and for India from 4% to 45%. Relatively large reduction potentials are calculated for end use efficiency improvement (43% for China and 45% for India), replacement of coal by renewable energy (23% for China and 14% for India) and natural gas (11% for China and 14% for India). Reducing electricity losses during transmission and distribution would reduce emissions by 7% (China) and 6% (India) and electrical efficiency improvement of power plants by 9% in both countries. The reduction options differ with respect to their feasibility. In the BAU scenario, emissions increase considerably between 1990 and 2020. Next, we present results for three BPT scenarios, which reflect the combined technical potential of selected options to reduce emissions. Our calculations indicate that all three scenarios have a potential to reduce emissions to about half the 2020 BAU level. The three scenarios are very different in their assumptions on reduction options, indicating that there are different strategies possible for realising relatively large emission reductions in China and India. We conclude that end use efficiency improvement may be one of

  18. Projected global ground-level ozone impacts on vegetation under different emission and climate scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Sicard

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The impact of ground-level ozone (O3 on vegetation is largely under-investigated at the global scale despite large areas worldwide that are exposed to high surface O3 levels. To explore future potential impacts of O3 on vegetation, we compared historical and projected surface O3 concentrations simulated by six global atmospheric chemistry transport models on the basis of three representative concentration pathways emission scenarios (i.e. RCP2.6, 4.5, 8.5. To assess changes in the potential surface O3 threat to vegetation at the global scale, we used the AOT40 metric. Results point out a significant exceedance of AOT40 in comparison with the recommendations of UNECE for the protection of vegetation. In fact, many areas of the Northern Hemisphere show that AOT40-based critical levels will be exceeded by a factor of at least 10 under RCP8.5. Changes in surface O3 by 2100 worldwide range from about +4–5 ppb in the RCP8.5 scenario to reductions of about 2–10 ppb in the most optimistic scenario, RCP2.6. The risk of O3 injury for vegetation, through the potential O3 impact on photosynthetic assimilation, decreased by 61 and 47 % under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, respectively, and increased by 70 % under RCP8.5. Key biodiversity areas in southern and northern Asia, central Africa and North America were identified as being at risk from high O3 concentrations.

  19. A hybrid modelling approach to develop scenarios for China's carbon dioxide emissions to 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gambhir, Ajay; Schulz, Niels; Napp, Tamaryn; Tong, Danlu; Munuera, Luis; Faist, Mark; Riahi, Keywan

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes a hybrid modelling approach to assess the future development of China's energy system, for both a “hypothetical counterfactual baseline” (HCB) scenario and low carbon (“abatement”) scenarios. The approach combines a technology-rich integrated assessment model (MESSAGE) of China's energy system with a set of sector-specific, bottom-up, energy demand models for the transport, buildings and industrial sectors developed by the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College London. By exploring technology-specific solutions in all major sectors of the Chinese economy, we find that a combination of measures, underpinned by low-carbon power options based on a mix of renewables, nuclear and carbon capture and storage, would fundamentally transform the Chinese energy system, when combined with increasing electrification of demand-side sectors. Energy efficiency options in these demand sectors are also important. - Highlights: • Combining energy supply and demand models reveals low-carbon technology choices across China's economy. • China could reduce its CO 2 emissions to close to 3 Gt in 2050, costing around 2% of GDP. • Decarbonising the power sector underpins the energy system transformation. • Electrification of industrial processes, building heating and transport is required. • Energy efficiency across the demand side is also important

  20. Long-term scenarios of energy use and carbon emissions: Summary of results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sathaye, J.

    1991-01-01

    Energy use in developing countries has risen more quickly than in the industrialized world, with a consequent increase in the developing world's share in global modern energy use from 16% in 1970 to 24% in 1987. As a result, while the developing countries' share of carbon dioxide emissions is small today, it is growing rapidly. The following is a brief summary of the aggregate results derived from the work on long-term energy and carbon emissions scenarios for China, India, Indonesia, Korea, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Venezuela, Nigeria, Ghana, Sierra Leone and the sic members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). The countries experience varying rates of population growth between 1985 and 2025. The fastest growth rates occur in Africa - particularly in Nigeria and Ghana - and in the GCC. In Korea and China, where the governments have implemented policies to control the expansion of the population, the growth rates remain significantly lower. The economic growth rates correspond with national projections and/or expert judgment. GDP shows a wide variance across the study countries; and in each country distinct factors account for the differences in rates of growth. Argentina, for example, experiences a relatively slow increase in GDP as the foundation of its economy moves away from manufacturing and towards agriculture-based industry. In contrast, Korea's development of its less energy-intensive industries continues to fuel high rates of economic growth between 1985 and 2025

  1. Policy scenarios for climate protection VI. Greenhouse gas emission scenarios up to the year 2030; Politikszenarien fuer den Klimaschutz VI. Treibhausgas-Emissionsszenarien bis zum Jahr 2030

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matthes, Felix C.; Busche, Julia; Doering, Ulrike [Oeko-Institut, Institut fuer Angewandte Oekologie, Freiburg (Germany)] [and others

    2013-03-15

    The largest emission reduction effects of the policy instruments analysed in this report arise from the more robust implementation of energy rehabilitation standards in the buildings sector, the measures geared to more efficient use of electricity in the tertiary and households sectors, including the effect of higher electricity prices as a consequence of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, more ambitious efficiency standards for passenger cars and the increased use of renewable energies in the heat, transport and electricity production sectors. Primary energy consumption in Germany decreases in this scenario by approx. 16 % by 2020 and by approx. 32 % by 2030 compared to 2008. The share of renewable energies increases by a factor of 2.2 by 2020 and by a factor of 2.8 by 2030 compared to 2008; overall the share of The largest emission reduction effects of the policy instruments analysed in this report arise from the more robust implementation of energy rehabilitation standards in the buildings sector, the measures geared to more efficient use of electricity in the tertiary and households sectors, including the effect of higher electricity prices as a consequence of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, more ambitious efficiency standards for passenger cars and the increased use of renewable energies in the heat, transport and electricity production sectors. Primary energy consumption in Germany decreases in this scenario by approx. 16 % by 2020 and by approx. 32 % by 2030 compared to 2008. The share of renewable energies increases by a factor of 2.2 by 2020 and by a factor of 2.8 by 2030 compared to 2008; overall the share of renewable energies in the primary energy supply increases to approx. 23 % by 2020 and to approx. 36 % by 2030. Alongside energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, additional measures in industrial processes also bring about substantial contributions to emission reductions.

  2. The impact of traffic emissions on air quality in the Berlin-Brandenburg region - a case study on cycling scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuik, F.; Lauer, A.; von Schneidemesser, E.; Butler, T. M.

    2016-12-01

    Many European cities continue to struggle with exceedances of NO2 limit values at measurement sites near roads, of which a large contribution is attributed to emissions from traffic. In this study, we explore how urban air quality can be improved with different traffic measures using the example of the Berlin-Brandenburg region. In order to simulate urban background air quality we use the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) at a horizontal resolution of 1km. We use emission input data at a horizontal resolution of 1km obtained by downscaling TNO-MACC III emissions based on local proxy data including population and traffic densities. In addition we use a statistical approach combining the simulated urban background concentrations with information on traffic densities to estimate NO2 at street level. This helps assessing whether the emission scenarios studied here can lead to significant reductions in NO2 concentrations at street level. The emission scenarios in this study represent a range of scenarios in which car traffic is replaced with bicycle traffic. Part of this study was an initial discussion phase with stakeholders, including policy makers and NGOs. The discussions have shown that the different stakeholders are interested in a scientific assessment of the impact of replacing car traffic with bicycle traffic in the Berlin-Brandenburg urban area. Local policy makers responsible for city planning and implementing traffic measures can make best use of scientific modeling results if input data and scenarios are as realistic as possible. For these reasons, the scenarios cover very idealized optimistic ("all passenger cars are replaced by bicycles") and pessimistic ("all cyclists are replaced by cars") scenarios to explore the sensitivity of simulated urban background air quality to these changes, as well as additional scenarios based on city-specific data to analyze more realistic situations. Of particular interest is how these impact

  3. Comparative analysis of greenhouse gas emissions between scenarios - Contribution of the Experts Group - National Debate on Energy Transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salomon, Thierry

    2013-01-01

    Within the frame of the French national debate on energy transition, this document briefly presents and comments calculations of greenhouse gas emissions according to 11 scenarios associated with 4 pathways: electrification and de-carbonation (NegaTEP), steady demand and diversification (Ancre DIV), efficiency and diversification (Ademe), and energy saving and phasing out nuclear (Negawatt). These pathways and scenarios are analysed in terms of greenhouse gas emissions and with respect to the objective of a factor-4 reduction by 2050. Emission data for 1990 and 2011 are recalled, as well as France commitments. The author outlines that only four scenarios reach this factor-4 objective as far as CO 2 combustion is concerned, that a factor 2 seems to be possible for some specific sectors (agriculture and wastes). He notices significant decreases in industrial processes since 1990, that only 2 scenarios and 2 pathways reach the factor-4 as far as all greenhouse gases are concerned. When taking energy demand into account, no scenario is able to reach the factor-4 without any strong policy of energy saving. Two conditions are therefore identified to reach this factor: a significant decrease of energy demand, and an action on all emission sources

  4. Scenarios for cutting down energy-related climate gas emissions in Germany; Szenarien zur Minderung energiebedingten Klimagasemissionen in Deutschland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hake, J.F.; Kuckshinrichs, W. [Forschungszentrum Juelich (Germany). Programmgruppe Systemforschung und Technologische Entwicklung (STE)

    1998-12-31

    Developing successful strategies for cutting down climate gas emissions is an extremely complex task. This goal can be aimed at by a combination of measures. But the results of individual scenarios are no immediate clue to their practicability. The results of scenarios must always be discussed within the context of the assumptions made and, where applicable, the targets set. Consequently, their informative value is limited. The contribution of scenarios to the answering of energy-political issues is that they define possible scope for action. (orig.)

  5. ASSESSMENT AND DECISION MAKING SCENARIO OF CARBON EMISSION IN SUGAR INDUSTRY BASED ON ENERGY CONSUMPTION USING SYSTEM DYNAMICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CHAIRUL SALEH

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This research is conducted to assess and create some scenarios in the sugar industry, which aimed to decrease the production of CO2 emissions in PT Madubaru. In this research, the assessment of CO2 emission is based on the energy consumption used in supply chain activities during the production period in 2014. The problem faced in this research is the used of energy for transportation and production in a complex condition. Thus, simulation modeling based on system dynamic has been proposed to build the assessment model and create a scenario. The result shows that PT Madubaru produces around 174,246,500 kg in 171 days or during the production period in 2014. It means that the amount of CO2 emission in a day is around 1,018,985 kg. Two scenarios haves been developeded in order to reduce CO2 emissions. First, changing the old type boiler with the new one by increasing 155% fuel efficiency. This scenario is proven to reduce the amount of CO2 by 44% or become 98,800,400 kg. Second, eliminating the use of lorry which reduce the 0.2% of CO2 emission or equal to 387,600 kg.

  6. The impact of China's vehicle emissions on regional air quality in 2000 and 2020: a scenario analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Saikawa

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The number of vehicles in China has been increasing rapidly. We evaluate the impact of current and possible future vehicle emissions from China on Asian air quality. We modify the Regional Emission Inventory in Asia (REAS for China's road transport sector in 2000 using updated Chinese data for the number of vehicles, annual mileage, and emission factors. We develop two scenarios for 2020: a scenario where emission factors remain the same as they were in 2000 (No-Policy, NoPol, and a scenario where Euro 3 vehicle emission standards are applied to all vehicles (except motorcycles and rural vehicles. The Euro 3 scenario is an approximation of what may be the case in 2020 as, starting in 2008, all new vehicles in China (except motorcycles were required to meet the Euro 3 emission standards. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF/Chem, we examine the regional air quality response to China's vehicle emissions in 2000 and in 2020 for the NoPol and Euro 3 scenarios. We evaluate the 2000 model results with observations in Japan, China, Korea, and Russia. Under NoPol in 2020, emissions of carbon monoxide (CO, nitrogen oxides (NOx, non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs, black carbon (BC, and organic carbon (OC from China's vehicles more than double compared to the 2000 baseline. If all vehicles meet the Euro 3 regulations in 2020, however, these emissions are reduced by more than 50% relative to NoPol. The implementation of stringent vehicle emission standards leads to a large, simultaneous reduction of the surface ozone (O3 mixing ratios and particulate matter (PM2.5 concentrations. In the Euro 3 scenario, surface O3 is reduced by more than 10 ppbv and surface PM2.5 is reduced by more than 10 μg m−3 relative to NoPol in Northeast China in all seasons. In spring, surface O3 mixing ratios and PM2.5 concentrations in

  7. Model for calculating regional energy use, industrial production and greenhouse gas emissions for evaluating global climate scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vries, H.J.M. de; Olivier, J.G.J.; Wijngaart, R.A. van den; Kreileman, G.J.J.; Toet, A.M.C.

    1994-01-01

    In the integrated IMAGE 2.0 model the 'Energy-Industry System' is implemented as a set of models to develop global scenarios for energy use and industrial processes and for the related emissions of greenhouse gases on a region specific basis. The Energy-Economy model computes total energy use, with a focus on final energy consumption in end-use sectors, based on economic activity levels and the energy conservation potential (end-use approach). The Industrial Production and Consumption model computes the future levels of activities other than energy use, which lead to greenhouse gas emissions, based on relations with activities defined in the Energy-Economy model. These two models are complemented by two emissions models, to compute the associated emissions by using emission factors per compound and per activity defined. For investigating energy conservation and emissions control strategy scenarios various techno-economic coefficients in the model can be modified. In this paper the methodology and implementation of the 'Energy-Industry System' models is described as well as results from their testing against data for the period 1970-1990. In addition, the application of the models is presented for a specific scenario calculation. Future extensions of the models are in preparation. 59 refs., 17 figs., 21 tabs

  8. Scenarios Analysis of the Energies’ Consumption and Carbon Emissions in China Based on a Dynamic CGE Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuanying Chi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the development trends and variation characteristics of China’s economy, energy consumption and carbon emissions from 2007 to 2030, and the impacts on China’s economic growth, energy consumption, and carbon emissions under the carbon tax policy scenarios, based on the dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE model. The results show that during the simulation period, China’s economy will keep a relatively high growth rate, but the growth rate will slow down under the benchmark scenario. The energy consumption intensity and the carbon emissions intensity per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP will continually decrease. The energy consumption structure and industrial structure will gradually optimize. With the economic growth, the total energy consumption will constantly increase, and the carbon dioxide emissions are still large, and the situation of energy-saving and emission-reduction is still serious. The carbon tax is very important for energy-saving and emission-reduction and energy consumption structure optimization, and the effect of the carbon tax on GDP is small. If the carbon tax could be levied and the enterprise income tax could be reduced at the same time, the dual goals of reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions and increasing the GDP growth can be achieved. Improving the technical progress level of clean power while implementing a carbon tax policy is very meaningful to optimize energy consumption structure and reduce the carbon emissions, but it has some offsetting effect to reduce energy consumption.

  9. Projections of NH3 emissions from manure generated by livestock production in China to 2030 under six mitigation scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Peng; Koloutsou-Vakakis, Sotiria; Rood, Mark J; Luan, Shengji

    2017-12-31

    China's rapid urbanization, large population, and increasing consumption of calorie-and meat-intensive diets, have resulted in China becoming the world's largest source of ammonia (NH 3 ) emissions from livestock production. This is the first study to use provincial, condition-specific emission factors based on most recently available studies on Chinese manure management and environmental conditions. The estimated NH 3 emission temporal trends and spatial patterns are interpreted in relation to government policies affecting livestock production. Scenario analysis is used to project emissions and estimate mitigation potential of NH 3 emissions, to year 2030. We produce a 1km×1km gridded NH 3 emission inventory for 2008 based on county-level activity data, which can help identify locations of highest NH 3 emissions. The total NH 3 emissions from manure generated by livestock production in 2008 were 7.3TgNH 3 ·yr -1 (interquartile range from 6.1 to 8.6TgNH 3 ·yr -1 ), and the major sources were poultry (29.9%), pigs (28.4%), other cattle (27.9%), and dairy cattle (7.0%), while sheep and goats (3.6%), donkeys (1.3%), horses (1.2%), and mules (0.7%) had smaller contributions. From 1978 to 2008, annual NH 3 emissions fluctuated with two peaks (1996 and 2006), and total emissions increased from 2.2 to 7.3Tg·yr -1 increasing on average 4.4%·yr -1 . Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, NH 3 emissions in 2030 are expected to be 13.9TgNH 3 ·yr -1 (11.5-16.3TgNH 3 ·yr -1 ). Under mitigation scenarios, the projected emissions could be reduced by 18.9-37.3% compared to 2030 BAU emissions. This study improves our understanding of NH 3 emissions from livestock production, which is needed to guide stakeholders and policymakers to make well informed mitigation decisions for NH 3 emissions from livestock production at the country and regional levels. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    John B Kim; Erwan Monier; Brent Sohngen; G Stephen Pitts; Ray Drapek; James McFarland; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

    2016-01-01

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a...

  11. Emissions in 2001 conform the reference scenario (GE WLO with high oil price) and including Clean and Efficient

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kroon, P.; Menkveld, M.

    2008-08-01

    This memo shows the calculation of an estimate for the total greenhouse gas emissions in 2011 in the reference scenario (GE WLO is the Dutch abbreviation for Global Economy and Welfare and Environment), including the impact of the Clean and Efficient programme from the assessment of ECN (Energy research Centre of the Netherlands) and MNP (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency) [nl

  12. Greenhouse gas emissions from different municipal solid waste management scenarios in China: Based on carbon and energy flow analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yili; Sun, Weixin; Liu, Jianguo

    2017-10-01

    Waste management is a major source of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and many opportunities exist to reduce these emissions. To identify the GHG emissions from waste management in China, the characteristics of MSW and the current and future treatment management strategies, five typical management scenarios were modeled by EaseTech software following the principles of life cycle inventory and analyzed based on the carbon and energy flows. Due to the high organic fraction (50-70%) and moisture content (>50%) of Chinese municipal solid waste (MSW), the net GHG emissions in waste management had a significant difference from the developed countries. It was found that the poor landfill gas (LFG) collection efficiency and low carbon storage resulted landfilling with flaring and landfilling with biogas recovery scenarios were the largest GHG emissions (192 and 117 kgCO 2 -Eq/t, respectively). In contrast, incineration had the best energy recovery rate (19%), and, by grid emissions substitution, led to a substantial decrease in net GHG emissions (-124 kgCO 2 -Eq/t). Due to the high energy consumption in operation, the unavoidable leakage of CH 4 and N 2 O in treatment, and the further release of CH 4 in disposing of the digested residue or composted product, the scenarios with biological treatment of the organic fractions after sorting, such as composting or anaerobic digestion (AD), did not lead to the outstanding GHG reductions (emissions of 32 and -36 kgCO 2 -Eq/t, respectively) as expected. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  13. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; Pitts, G. Stephen; Drapek, Ray; McFarland, James; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson

    2017-04-01

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomes of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.

  14. Early UV emission from disc-originated matter (DOM) in Type Ia supernovae in the double-degenerate scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levanon, Naveh; Soker, Noam

    2017-09-01

    We show that the blue and UV excess emission in the first few days of some Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) can be accounted in the double-degenerate (DD) scenario by the collision of the SN ejecta with circumstellar matter that was blown by the accretion disc formed during the merger process of the two white dwarfs (WDs). We assume that in cases of excess early light, the disc blows the circumstellar matter, that we term disc-originated matter (DOM), hours to days before explosion. To perform our analysis, we first provide a model-based definition for early excess light, replacing the definition of excess light relative to a power-law fit to the rising luminosity. We then examine the light curves of the SNe Ia iPTF14atg and SN 2012cg, and find that the collision of the ejecta with a DOM in the frame of the DD scenario can account for their early excess emission. Thus, early excess light does not necessarily imply the presence of a stellar companion in the frame of the single-degenerate scenario. Our findings further increase the variety of phenomena that the DD scenario can account for, and emphasize the need to consider all different SN Ia scenarios when interpreting observations.

  15. Modelling the impacts of European emission and climate change scenarios on acid-sensitive catchments in Finland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Posch

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available The dynamic hydro-chemical Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC was used to predict the response of 163 Finnish lake catchments to future acidic deposition and climatic change scenarios. Future deposition was assumed to follow current European emission reduction policies and a scenario based on maximum (technologically feasible reductions (MFR. Future climate (temperature and precipitation was derived from the HadAM3 and ECHAM4/OPYC3 general circulation models under two global scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC: A2 and B2. The combinations resulting in the widest range of future changes were used for simulations, i.e., the A2 scenario results from ECHAM4/OPYC3 (highest predicted change and B2 results from HadAM3 (lowest predicted change. Future scenarios for catchment runoff were obtained from the Finnish watershed simulation and forecasting system. The potential influence of future changes in surface water organic carbon concentrations was also explored using simple empirical relationships based on temperature and sulphate deposition. Surprisingly, current emission reduction policies hardly show any future recovery; however, significant chemical recovery of soil and surface water from acidification was predicted under the MFR emission scenario. The direct influence of climate change (temperate and precipitation on recovery was negligible, as runoff hardly changed; greater precipitation is offset by increased evapotranspiration due to higher temperatures. However, two exploratory empirical DOC models indicated that changes in sulphur deposition or temperature could have a confounding influence on the recovery of surface waters from acidification, and that the corresponding increases in DOC concentrations may offset the recovery in pH due to reductions in acidifying depositions.

  16. Scenarios for use of biogas for heavy-duty vehicles in Denmark and related GHG emissions impacts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Steen Solvang; Winther, Morten; Jørgensen, Uffe

    2017-01-01

    of biogas is of concern. This study has analysed the potential biomass and biogas production from all Danish organic waste sources under different scenario assumptions for future scenario years. The analysis includes energy demand of the road transportation sector by means of transport and fuel types......, and potential use of the limited biogas resource taking into account alternative fuel options available for transportation (electricity, hydrogen, biofuels). Further, the total differences in fuel consumption and GHG emissions due to the replacement of diesel-powered heavy-duty vehicles by gas-powered heavy...

  17. Scenario uncertainties in estimating direct land-use change emissions in biomass-to-energy life cycle assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Curtright, Aimee E.; Johnson, David R.; Willis, Henry H.; Skone, Timothy

    2012-01-01

    The use of biomass for energy production has increasingly been encouraged in the United States, in part motivated by the potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions relative to fossil fuels. However, the GHG-intensity of biomass-derived energy is highly dependent on how the biomass is obtained and used. We explore scenario uncertainty in GHG estimates in the Calculating Uncertainty in Biomass Emissions (CUBE) model and find that direct land-use change emissions that result during the biomass production often dominate the total “farm-to-hopper” GHGs. CUBE represents each land-use change decision as a conversion of land from one of four specified baseline ecosystem to produce one of seven feedstock crops, both distinct by geographic region, and then determines the implied changes in soil organic carbon, root carbon, and above-ground biomass. CUBE therefore synthesizes and organizes the existing literature to represent direct land-use change emissions in a way that can be more readily incorporated into life cycle assessment. Our approach to representing direct land-use change literature has been applied to a specific set of data and offers immediate implications for decisionmakers, but it can also be generalized and replicated in the future, making use of improved scientific data on the magnitude and rates of direct land-use change emissions as it becomes available. -- Highlights: ► The GHG-intensity of bioenergy depends on how the biomass is obtained and used. ► Total GHG emissions may be dominated by direct land-use change emissions. ► There is significant scenario uncertainty in emissions based on the location of production. ► Emissions vary based on time elapsed since land-use change conversions. ► Our approach can be generalized to use improved scientific data in the future.

  18. Supplement to the methodology for risk evaluation: Emission Scenario Document for Product Type 2: Private and public health area disinfectants and other biocidal products (sanitary and medical sector)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Poel P van der; CSR

    2001-01-01

    This report is produced in the framework of EUBEES (EU working group on Gathering, Review and Development of Environmental Emission Scenarios for Biocides). It contains descriptions of the specific applications mentioned in the title and the accompanying emission scenarios. Where appropriate

  19. [Synergistic emission reduction of chief air pollutants and greenhouse gases-based on scenario simulations of energy consumptions in Beijing].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Yuan-bo; Li, Wei

    2013-05-01

    It is one of the common targets and important tasks for energy management and environmental control of Beijing to improve urban air quality while reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). Here, based on the interim and long term developmental planning and energy structure of the city, three energy consumption scenarios in low, moderate and high restrictions were designed by taking the potential energy saving policies and environmental targets into account. The long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) model was employed to predict and evaluate reduction effects of the chief air pollutants and GHG during 2010 to 2020 under the three given scenarios. The results showed that if urban energy consumption system was optimized or adjusted by exercising energy saving and emission reduction and pollution control measures, the predicted energy uses will be reduced by 10 to 30 million tons of coal equivalents by 2020. Under the two energy scenarios with moderate and high restrictions, the anticipated emissions of SO2, NOx, PM10, PM2.5, VOC and GHG will be respectively reduced to 71 to 100.2, 159.2 to 218.7, 89.8 to 133.8, 51.4 to 96.0, 56.4 to 74.8 and 148 200 to 164 700 thousand tons. Correspondingly, when compared with the low-restriction scenario, the reducing rate will be 53% to 67% , 50% to 64% , 33% to 55% , 25% to 60% , 41% to 55% and 26% to 34% respectively. Furthermore, based on a study of synergistic emission reduction of the air pollutants and GHG, it was proposed that the adjustment and control of energy consumptions shall be intensively developed in the three sectors of industry, transportation and services. In this way the synergistic reduction of the emissions of chief air pollutants and GHG will be achieved; meanwhile the pressures of energy demands may be deliberately relieved.

  20. Regional-Level Carbon Emissions Modelling and Scenario Analysis: A STIRPAT Case Study in Henan Province, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pengyan Zhang

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Global warming has brought increased attention to the relationship between carbon emissions and economic development. Research on the driving factors of carbon emissions from energy consumption can provide a scientific basis for regional energy savings, as well as emissions reduction and sustainable development. Henan Province is a major agricultural province in China, and it is one of most populous provinces. Industrial development and population growth are the causes of carbon emissions. The STIRPAT model was conducted for analyzing carbon emissions and the driving factors for future carbon emission in Henan Province. The results show that: carbon emissions and energy consumption in Henan Province presented a rising trend from 1995 to 2014; Energy consumption due to population growth is the main contributor to carbon emissions in Henan Province. As every 1% increase in the population, GDP per-capita, energy intensity, and the level of urbanization development will contribute to the growth of emissions by 1.099, 0.193, 0.043, and 0.542%, respectively. The optimization of the industrial structure can reduce carbon emissions in Henan Province, as suggested by the results, when the tertiary sector increased by more than 1%, the total energy consumption of carbon emissions reduced by 1.297%. The future pattern of carbon emissions in Henan Province is predicted to increase initially and then follows by a decreasing trend, according to scenario analysis; and maintaining a low population growth rate, and a high growth rate of GDP per-capita and technical level is the best mode for social and economic development.

  1. Greenhouse gas emission reduction scenarios for BC : meeting the twin objectives of temperature stabilization and global equity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campbell, C.R.

    2008-08-01

    Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction strategies are needed in order to prevent rises in global temperatures. This report presented 6 GHG emission scenarios conducted to understand the kind of contribution that the province of British Columbia (BC) might make towards reducing global warming in the future. Short, medium, and longer term GHG reduction targets were benchmarked. The University of Victoria earth system climate model was used to calculate emission pathways where global average temperature did not exceed 2 degrees C above pre-industrial values, and where atmospheric GHGs were stabilized at 400 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO 2 e). Global carbon emission budgets of the total amount of GHG emissions permissible between now and 2100 were identified. A carbon emission budget for 2008 to 2100 was then developed based on the population of BC. Average annual emission reduction rates for the world and for BC were also identified. It was concluded that dramatically reduced emissions will be insufficient to achieve an equilibrium temperature less than 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels. Global reductions of greater than 80 per cent are needed to prevent unacceptable levels of ocean acidification. Results suggested that carbon sequestration technologies may need to be used to remove CO 2 from the atmosphere by artificial means. 38 refs., 5 tabs., 4 figs

  2. BECCS capability of dedicated bioenergy crops under a future land-use scenario targeting net negative carbon emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, E.; Yamagata, Y.

    2014-12-01

    Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is a key component of mitigation strategies in future socio-economic scenarios that aim to keep mean global temperature rise below 2°C above pre-industrial, which would require net negative carbon emissions in the end of the 21st century. Because of the additional need for land, developing sustainable low-carbon scenarios requires careful consideration of the land-use implications of deploying large-scale BECCS. We evaluated the feasibility of the large-scale BECCS in RCP2.6, which is a scenario with net negative emissions aiming to keep the 2°C temperature target, with a top-down analysis of required yields and a bottom-up evaluation of BECCS potential using a process-based global crop model. Land-use change carbon emissions related to the land expansion were examined using a global terrestrial biogeochemical cycle model. Our analysis reveals that first-generation bioenergy crops would not meet the required BECCS of the RCP2.6 scenario even with a high fertilizer and irrigation application. Using second-generation bioenergy crops can marginally fulfill the required BECCS only if a technology of full post-process combustion CO2 capture is deployed with a high fertilizer application in the crop production. If such an assumed technological improvement does not occur in the future, more than doubling the area for bioenergy production for BECCS around 2050 assumed in RCP2.6 would be required, however, such scenarios implicitly induce large-scale land-use changes that would cancel half of the assumed CO2 sequestration by BECCS. Otherwise a conflict of land-use with food production is inevitable.

  3. Greenhouse gas emissions from willow-based electricity: a scenario analysis for Portugal and The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rebelo de Mira, R.; Kroeze, C.

    2006-01-01

    This study focuses on greenhouse gas emissions from power plants using willow as fuel compared to those using fossil fuels. More specifically, we quantify emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) from soils on which willow is grown, and compare these to emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from fossil

  4. Scenario analysis on alternative fuel/vehicle for China's future road transport: Life-cycle energy demand and GHG emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ou Xunmin; Zhang Xiliang; Chang Shiyan

    2010-01-01

    The rapid growth of vehicles has resulted in continuing growth in China's oil demand. This paper analyzes future trends of both direct and life cycle energy demand (ED) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China's road transport sector, and assesses the effectiveness of possible reduction measures by using alternative vehicles/fuels. A model is developed to derive a historical trend and to project future trends. The government is assumed to do nothing additional in the future to influence the long-term trends in the business as usual (BAU) scenario. Four specific scenarios are used to describe the future cases where different alternative fuel/vehicles are applied. The best case scenario is set to represent the most optimized case. Direct ED and GHG emissions would reach 734 million tonnes of oil equivalent and 2384 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050 in the BAU case, respectively, more than 5.6 times of 2007 levels. Compared with the BAU case, the relative reductions achieved in the best case would be 15.8% and 27.6% for life cycle ED and GHG emissions, respectively. It is suggested for future policy implementation to support sustainable biofuel and high efficient electric-vehicles, and the deployment of coal-based fuels accompanied with low-carbon technology.

  5. Energy and greenhouse-gas emissions in irrigated agriculture of SE (southeast) Spain. Effects of alternative water supply scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin-Gorriz, B.; Soto-García, M.; Martínez-Alvarez, V.

    2014-01-01

    Global warming is leading to a water resources decrease in the Mediterranean basin, where future farming resilience depends on incorporating alternative water sources and improving water-energy use efficiency. This paper assesses water and energy consumption when natural water sources are partially replaced by desalinated sea water. Initially, energy consumption, water supply and GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions were recorded for the current farming practices in SE (southeast) Spain. The results of our study indicate that citrus orchards have the lowest energy consumption and GHG emissions. Annual vegetables were the least energy efficient crops. Subsequently, two alternative water supply scenarios were analysed, in which the reduction of natural water resources associated to climate change was compensated with desalinated sea water. The use of 16.8% of desalinated seawater would increase energy consumption by 32.4% and GHG emissions by 19.6%, whereas for the use of 26.5% of desalinated seawater such increases would amount to 50.0% and 30.3%, respectively. Therefore maintaining irrigated agriculture in water-stressed regions by incorporating high energy demanding non-traditional water sources could negatively contribute to combat global warming. - Highlights: • Water supply, energy consumption and GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions in irrigated agriculture are very connected. • The use of desalinated sea water will increase the energy consumption, and GHG emissions will rise. • The use of non-traditional water resources enhances global warming processes. • Citrus orchards are the less sensitive crop to alternative water supplied scenarios. • Artichoke is the most sensitive crop to alternative water supplied scenarios

  6. A probabilistic scenario approach for developing improved Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+ baselines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malika Virah-Sawmy

    2015-07-01

    By generating robust probabilistic baseline scenarios, exponential smoothing models can facilitate the effectiveness of REDD+ payments, support a more efficient allocation of scarce conservation resources, and improve our understanding of effective forest conservation investments, also beyond REDD+.

  7. Politics scenarios for climatic protection V - On the way to structural change, scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions up to the year 2030; Politikszenarien V - auf dem Weg zum Strukturwandel, Treibhausgas-Emissionsszenarien bis zum Jahr 2030

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hansen, P.; Matthes, F.C. (eds.)

    2010-07-01

    For the project 'Politics scenarios for climate protection V' (Politics scenarios V), two scenarios for the development of greenhouse gas emissions in Germany for the period 2005 to 2030 were developed: (a) a 'With-Measure-scenario'; (b) a 'structural-change-scenario'. In the context of the scenario analyses a detailed evaluation of the respective climatic political and energy political measures is performed regarding to their effects on the development of the greenhouse gas emissions in Germany. Methane, laughing gas, halogenated hydrocarbons, perfluorinated hydrocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride are considered for the source sectors energy, industrial processes, product application, agriculture and waste management are considered. Sector-specific model analyses are used in the development of the scenarios. These model analyses are summarized to consistent and complete quantity structure for the power requirement and the emissions of greenhouse gases. Specific investigations are accomplished for the areas space heating and warm water, electrical devices, industry, trade and services, traffic, power generation from renewable energies and the fossil power generation as well as for the volatile emissions of the energy sector, process-related emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxides. For other selected sources (emissions of halogenated hydrocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride as well as the agriculture) results of other investigations were taken over and processed. In the case of an integration and determination of emissions a system integration module and an emission computation model are used in order to consolidate the detailed sector results to a quantity structure. This quantity structure completely is compatible to the German greenhouse gas inventories (according to the conditions of the inventory report 2008).

  8. Aircraft Emission Scenarios Projected in Year 2015 for the NASA Technology Concept Aircraft (TCA) High Speed Civil Transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baughcum, Steven L.; Henderson, Stephen C.

    1998-01-01

    This report describes the development of a three-dimensional database of aircraft fuel burn and emissions (fuel burned, NOx, CO, and hydrocarbons) from projected fleets of high speed civil transports (HSCTs) on a universal airline network. Inventories for 500 and 1000 HSCT fleets, as well as the concurrent subsonic fleets, were calculated. The HSCT scenarios are calculated using the NASA technology concept airplane (TCA) and update an earlier report. These emissions inventories are available for use by atmospheric scientists conducting the Atmospheric Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft (AESA) modeling studies. Fuel burned and emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx as NO2), carbon monoxide, and hydrocarbons have been calculated on a 1 degree latitude x 1 degree longitude x 1 kilometer pressure altitude grid and delivered to NASA as electronic files.

  9. Sustainable passenger road transport scenarios to reduce fuel consumption, air pollutants and GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chavez-Baeza, Carlos; Sheinbaum-Pardo, Claudia

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents passenger road transport scenarios that may assist the MCMA (Mexico City Metropolitan Area) in achieving lower emissions in both criteria air pollutants (CO, NO x , NMVOC (non-methane volatile organic compounds), and PM 10 ) and GHG (greenhouse gas) (CH 4 , N 2 O and CO 2 ), while also promoting better mobility and quality of life in this region. We developed a bottom-up model to estimate the historical trends of energy demand, criteria air pollutants and GHG emissions caused by passenger vehicles circulating in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) in order to construct a baseline scenario and two mitigation scenarios that project their impact to 2028. Mitigation scenario “eff” considers increasing fuel efficiencies and introducing new technologies for vehicle emission controls. Mitigation scenario “BRT” considers a modal shift from private car trips to a Bus Rapid Transport system. Our results show significant reductions in air pollutants and GHG emissions. Incentives and environmental regulations are needed to enable these scenarios. - Highlights: • More than 4.2 million passenger vehicles in the MCMA (Mexico City Metropolitan Area) that represent 61% of criteria pollutants and 44% of GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions. • Emissions of CO, NO x and NMVOC (non-methane volatile organic compounds) in baseline scenario decrease with respect to its 2008 value because emission standards. • Emissions of PM 10 and GHG increase in baseline scenario. • Emissions of PM 10 and GHG decrease in eff + BRT scenario from year 2020. • Additional reductions are possible with better standards for diesel vehicles and other technologies

  10. Carbon Emission Mitigation Potentials of Different Policy Scenarios and Their Effects on International Aviation in the Korean Context

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sungwook Yoon

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to seek better policy options for greenhouse gas (GHG emission reduction in Korea’s international aviation industry by analyzing economic efficiency and environmental effectiveness with a system dynamics (SD model. Accordingly, we measured airlines sales and CO2 emission reductions to evaluate economic efficiency and environmental effectiveness, respectively, for various policies. The results show that the average carbon emission reduction rates of four policies compared to the business-as-usual (BAU scenario between 2015 and 2030 are 4.00% (Voluntary Agreement, 7.25% (Emission Trading System or ETS-30,000, 8.33% (Carbon Tax or CT-37,500, and 8.48% (Emission Charge System or EC-30,000. The average rate of decrease in airline sales compared to BAU for the ETS policy is 0.1% at 2030. Our results show that the ETS approach is the most efficient of all the analyzed CO2 reduction policies in economic terms, while the EC approach is the best policy to reduce GHG emissions. This study provides a foundation for devising effective response measures pertaining to GHG reduction and supports decision making on carbon tax and carbon credit pricing.

  11. Energy and emissions benefits of renewable energy derived from municipal solid waste: Analysis of a low carbon scenario in Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tan, Sie Ting; Hashim, Haslenda; Lim, Jeng Shiun; Ho, Wai Shin; Lee, Chew Tin; Yan, Jinyue

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Feasibility study on the energy and GHG emission reduction for WtE strategies for municipal solid waste (MSW) in Malaysia. • Greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions from WtE strategies analysed using IPCC guideline. • Scenario analysis by comparison of different WtE strategies. • Impact of moisture content of MSW towards energy potential and GHG emission reduction. - Abstract: Ineffective waste management that involves dumping of waste in landfills may degrade valuable land resources and emit methane gas (CH 4 ), a more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). The incineration of waste also emits polluted chemicals such as dioxin and particle. Therefore, from a solid waste management perspective, both landfilling and incineration practices pose challenges to the development of a green and sustainable future. Waste-to-energy (WtE) has become a promising strategy catering to these issues because the utilisation of waste reduces the amount of landfilled waste (overcoming land resource issues) while increasing renewable energy production. The goal of this paper is to evaluate the energy and carbon reduction potential in Malaysia for various WtE strategies for municipal solid waste (MSW). The material properties of the MSW, its energy conversion potential and subsequent greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions are analysed based on the chemical compositions and biogenic carbon fractions of the waste. The GHG emission reduction potential is also calculated by considering fossil fuel displacement and CH 4 avoidance from landfilling. In this paper, five different scenarios are analysed with results indicating a integration of landfill gas (LFG) recovery systems and waste incinerator as the major and minor WtE strategies shows the highest economical benefit with optimal GHG mitigation and energy potential. Sensitivity analysis on the effect of moisture content of MSW towards energy potential and GHG emissions are performed. These evaluations of Wt

  12. Emission scenarios for a global hydrogen economy and the consequences for global air pollution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ruijven, B.J.; Lamarque, J.F.; van Vuuren, D.P.; Kram, T.; Eerens, H.

    2011-01-01

    Hydrogen is named as possible energy carrier for future energy systems. However, the impact of large-scale hydrogen use on the atmosphere is uncertain. Application of hydrogen in clean fuel cells reduces emissions of air pollutants, but emissions from hydrogen production and leakages of molecular

  13. Greenhouse gas emissions from energy production in Russia: Current status and possible scenarios for the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ginzburg, V.

    1998-01-01

    In accordance with the framework Convention on Climate Change that was signed and ratified by Russian Federation, periodical reports about the actions of Russia are published. An inventory of human origin sources of greenhouse gas was prepared. Carbondioxide represented 72% of total greenhouse das emissions. Policy and action plans for limiting of greenhouse gas emissions are developing

  14. Implications of greenhouse gas emission mitigation scenarios for the main Asian regions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ruijven, B.J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304834521; van Vuuren, D.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; van Vliet, J.; Mendoza Beltran, A.; Deetman, S.; den Elzen, M.G.J.

    2012-01-01

    In order to limit global mean temperature increase, long-term greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced. This paper discusses the implications of greenhouse gas emission reductions for major Asian regions (China, India, Indonesia, South-East Asia, Japan and Korea) based on results from the IMAGE

  15. Trends in aircraft emissions. Simulation of two air traffic scenarios in Sweden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larson, L G; Palsson, A [The Aeronautical Research Inst. of Sweden, Bromma (Sweden). The Swedish Civil Aviation Administration

    1998-12-31

    The developing trends of emissions from aviation in Sweden have been studied by means of flight and emissions simulation. The objective was to investigate whether technical improvements will allow Swedish air traffic to increase, without exceeding national regulations for pollution in the future. It was found that, due to development of aircraft engines and, to some extent, improvement of aerodynamic designs, the fuel consumption and thus the emissions of carbon dioxide will decrease in the future. The decrease of nitrous oxides is predicted to be significant due to advances in engine technology. (author) 4 refs.

  16. Trends in aircraft emissions. Simulation of two air traffic scenarios in Sweden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larson, L.G.; Palsson, A. [The Aeronautical Research Inst. of Sweden, Bromma (Sweden). The Swedish Civil Aviation Administration

    1997-12-31

    The developing trends of emissions from aviation in Sweden have been studied by means of flight and emissions simulation. The objective was to investigate whether technical improvements will allow Swedish air traffic to increase, without exceeding national regulations for pollution in the future. It was found that, due to development of aircraft engines and, to some extent, improvement of aerodynamic designs, the fuel consumption and thus the emissions of carbon dioxide will decrease in the future. The decrease of nitrous oxides is predicted to be significant due to advances in engine technology. (author) 4 refs.

  17. Future scenarios for energy consumption and carbon emissions due to demographic transitions in Chinese households

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Biying; Wei, Yi-Ming; Kei, Gomi; Matsuoka, Yuzuru

    2018-02-01

    Population dynamics has been acknowledged as a key concern for projecting future emissions, partly because of the huge uncertainties related to human behaviour. However, the heterogeneous shifts of human behaviour in the process of demographic transition are not well explored when scrutinizing the impacts of population dynamics on carbon emissions. Here, we expand the existing population-economy-environment analytical structure to address the above limitations by representing the trend of demographic transitions to small-family and ageing society. We specifically accommodate for inter- and intra-life-stage variations in time allocation and consumption in the population rather than assuming a representative household, and take a less developed province, Sichuan, in China as the empirical context. Our results show that the demographic shift to small and ageing households will boost energy consumption and carbon emissions, driven by the joint variations in time-use and consumption patterns. Furthermore, biased pictures of changing emissions will emerge if the time effect is disregarded.

  18. Renewables, nuclear, or fossil fuels? Scenarios for Great Britain’s power system considering costs, emissions and energy security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pfenninger, Stefan; Keirstead, James

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We compare a large number of cost-optimal future power systems for Great Britain. • Scenarios are assessed on cost, emissions reductions, and energy security. • Up to 60% of variable renewable capacity is possible with little cost increase. • Higher shares require storage, imports or dispatchable renewables such as tidal range. - Abstract: Mitigating climate change is driving the need to decarbonize the electricity sector, for which various possible technological options exist, alongside uncertainty over which options are preferable in terms of cost, emissions reductions, and energy security. To reduce this uncertainty, we here quantify two questions for the power system of Great Britain (England, Wales and Scotland): First, when compared within the same high-resolution modeling framework, how much do different combinations of technologies differ in these three respects? Second, how strongly does the cost and availability of grid-scale storage affect overall system cost, and would it favor some technology combinations above others? We compare three main possible generation technologies: (1) renewables, (2) nuclear, and (3) fossil fuels (with/without carbon capture and storage). Our results show that across a wide range of these combinations, the overall costs remain similar, implying that different configurations are equally feasible both technically and economically. However, the most economically favorable scenarios are not necessarily favorable in terms of emissions or energy security. The availability of grid-scale storage in scenarios with little dispatchable generation can reduce overall levelized electricity cost by up to 50%, depending on storage capacity costs. The UK can rely on its domestic wind and solar PV generation at lower renewable shares, with levelized costs only rising more than 10% above the mean of 0.084 GBP/kWh for shares of 50% and below at a 70% share, which is 35% higher. However, for more than an 80% renewable

  19. Particle reduction strategies - PAREST. Gridded European emission data for projection years 2010, 2015 and 2020 based on the IIASA GAINS NEC scenarios. Teilbericht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gon, Hugo Denier van der; Visschedijk, Antoon; Brugh, Hans van den [TNO Earth, Environment and Life Sciences, Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2013-06-15

    Projected emissions for selected scenarios for the years 2010, 2015 and 2020 were obtained from the GAINS NEC scenario reports and distributed on a high resolution over Europe using the TNO gridding tools. These emission maps are available as model input in the PAREST project to model the contribution of Europe to air quality in Germany in 2010, 2015 and 2020 (see note Rainer Stern, May 2009). The scenarios have a significant influence on absolute emission levels for the countries that were covered by IIASA GAINS. This suggests that emission changes in countries were no scenarios were available (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia) or where only a projection year baseline is available (all non-EU) may be subject to significant changes as well (but these are quite far from Germany). For future projects it is recommended to make simple and transparent scenarios for these other countries, as well as for International Shipping. The change in emissions from the base year 2005 to the projection year 2010 needs to be interpreted with care. This because some methodology differences between 2005 official emission data as used in the PAREST base year 2005 emission set and GAINS 2010 data exist. It is expected that the emission reduction steps towards 2020 are more realistic.

  20. Pomace waste management scenarios in Québec--impact on greenhouse gas emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gassara, Fatma; Brar, S K; Pelletier, F; Verma, M; Godbout, S; Tyagi, R D

    2011-09-15

    Fruit processing industries generate tremendous amount of solid wastes which is almost 35-40% dry weight of the total produce used for the manufacturing of juices. These solid wastes, referred to as, "pomace" contain high moisture content (70-75%) and biodegradable organic load (high BOD and COD values) so that their management is an important issue. During the management of these pomace wastes by different strategies comprising incineration, landfill, composting, solid-state fermentation to produce high-value enzymes and animal feed, there is production of greenhouse gases (GHG) which must be taken into account. In this perspective, this study is unique that discusses the GHG emission analysis of agro-industrial waste management strategies, especially apple pomace waste management and repercussions of value-addition of these wastes in terms of their sustainability using life cycle assessment (LCA) model. The results of the analysis indicated that, among all the apple pomace management sub-models for a functional unit, solid-state fermentation to produce enzymes was the most effective method for reducing GHG emissions (906.81 tons CO(2) eq. per year), while apple pomace landfill resulted in higher GHG emissions (1841.00 tons CO(2) eq. per year). The assessment and inventory of GHG emissions during solid-state fermentation gave positive indications of environmental sustainability for the use of this strategy to manage apple pomace and other agricultural wastes, particularly in Quebec and also extended to other countries. The analysis and use of parameters in this study were drawn from various analytical approaches and data sources. There was absence of some data in the literature which led to consideration of some assumptions in order to calculate GHG emissions. Hence, supplementary experimental studies will be very important to calculate the GHG emissions coefficients during agro-industrial waste management. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Energy scenarios for Switzerland and emission control, estimated with a normative model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kypreos, S.

    1990-06-01

    The reported work presents results of the IEA-ETSAP project (International Energy Agency - Energy Technology Systems Analysis Project) concerning the interrelations among energy use, emissions to the atmosphere and the cost of emission control. The energy simulation model SMEDE, which has been developed at PSI and applies the engineering simulation (bottom up) approach, and the IEA optimization model MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation) have been used to analyse the energy demand and supply system of Switzerland. The purpose of this analysis is to identify technical options and their cost for reducing the energy dependent atmospheric emissions in Switzerland to the levels of the 'clean air concept'. The study addresses also the question of the feasibility and the economic implications of reducing the CO 2 emissions to the levels recommended by the Toronto conference. The implications of a stringent 'clean air concept' and these of the Toronto recommendations have been analysed under different nuclear supply options i.e. an unconstrained nuclear supply case (reference), a nuclear status-quo (moratorium) and under the conditions of a nuclear phase-out programme by the year 2025. The main conclusions of this analysis indicate that the emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide could be reduced back to the levels of 1950 respectively 1960, by the introduction of emission control technologies which go above the present performance limits defined by the 'clean air ordinance' (LRV). A probable time horizon to satisfy the NO x constraints is the year 2000 and not 1995. Organizational measures necessary to improve the air quality in cities are complementary to the measures proposed in this analysis. (author) figs., tabs., 18 refs

  2. Pomace waste management scenarios in Quebec-Impact on greenhouse gas emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gassara, Fatma; Brar, S.K.; Pelletier, F.; Verma, M.; Godbout, S.; Tyagi, R.D.

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → Incineration, landfill, animal feed, enzyme production by fermentation and, composting as apple pomace management strategies. → Reduction of GHG emissions using solid state fermentation of apple pomace → Highest GHG emissions during landfill. - Abstract: Fruit processing industries generate tremendous amount of solid wastes which is almost 35-40% dry weight of the total produce used for the manufacturing of juices. These solid wastes, referred to as, 'pomace' contain high moisture content (70-75%) and biodegradable organic load (high BOD and COD values) so that their management is an important issue. During the management of these pomace wastes by different strategies comprising incineration, landfill, composting, solid-state fermentation to produce high-value enzymes and animal feed, there is production of greenhouse gases (GHG) which must be taken into account. In this perspective, this study is unique that discusses the GHG emission analysis of agro-industrial waste management strategies, especially apple pomace waste management and repercussions of value-addition of these wastes in terms of their sustainability using life cycle assessment (LCA) model. The results of the analysis indicated that, among all the apple pomace management sub-models for a functional unit, solid-state fermentation to produce enzymes was the most effective method for reducing GHG emissions (906.81 tons CO 2 eq. per year), while apple pomace landfill resulted in higher GHG emissions (1841.00 tons CO 2 eq. per year). The assessment and inventory of GHG emissions during solid-state fermentation gave positive indications of environmental sustainability for the use of this strategy to manage apple pomace and other agricultural wastes, particularly in Quebec and also extended to other countries. The analysis and use of parameters in this study were drawn from various analytical approaches and data sources. There was absence of some data in the literature which led to

  3. Pomace waste management scenarios in Quebec-Impact on greenhouse gas emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gassara, Fatma [INRS-ETE, Universite du Quebec, 490, Rue de la Couronne, Quebec, Canada G1K 9A9 (Canada); Brar, S.K., E-mail: satinder.brar@ete.inrs.ca [INRS-ETE, Universite du Quebec, 490, Rue de la Couronne, Quebec, Canada G1K 9A9 (Canada); Pelletier, F.; Verma, M.; Godbout, S. [Institut de recherche et de developpement en agroenvironnement inc. (IRDA), 2700 rue Einstein, Quebec (Quebec), Canada G1P 3W8 (Canada); Tyagi, R.D. [INRS-ETE, Universite du Quebec, 490, Rue de la Couronne, Quebec, Canada G1K 9A9 (Canada)

    2011-09-15

    Highlights: {yields} Incineration, landfill, animal feed, enzyme production by fermentation and, composting as apple pomace management strategies. {yields} Reduction of GHG emissions using solid state fermentation of apple pomace {yields} Highest GHG emissions during landfill. - Abstract: Fruit processing industries generate tremendous amount of solid wastes which is almost 35-40% dry weight of the total produce used for the manufacturing of juices. These solid wastes, referred to as, 'pomace' contain high moisture content (70-75%) and biodegradable organic load (high BOD and COD values) so that their management is an important issue. During the management of these pomace wastes by different strategies comprising incineration, landfill, composting, solid-state fermentation to produce high-value enzymes and animal feed, there is production of greenhouse gases (GHG) which must be taken into account. In this perspective, this study is unique that discusses the GHG emission analysis of agro-industrial waste management strategies, especially apple pomace waste management and repercussions of value-addition of these wastes in terms of their sustainability using life cycle assessment (LCA) model. The results of the analysis indicated that, among all the apple pomace management sub-models for a functional unit, solid-state fermentation to produce enzymes was the most effective method for reducing GHG emissions (906.81 tons CO{sub 2} eq. per year), while apple pomace landfill resulted in higher GHG emissions (1841.00 tons CO{sub 2} eq. per year). The assessment and inventory of GHG emissions during solid-state fermentation gave positive indications of environmental sustainability for the use of this strategy to manage apple pomace and other agricultural wastes, particularly in Quebec and also extended to other countries. The analysis and use of parameters in this study were drawn from various analytical approaches and data sources. There was absence of some data

  4. Scenario analysis on the goal of carbon emission peaking around 2030 of China proposed in the China-U.S. joint statement on climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, T.

    2015-12-01

    A goal of carbon (C) emission peaking around 2030 of China was declared in the China-U.S. joint statement on climate change, and emphasized in China's intended nationally determined contributions (INDC). Here, we predicted the carbon emission of China during the period 2011~2050 under seven scenarios, and analyzed the scientific and social implications of realizing the goal. Our results showed that: (1) C emissions of China will reach their peaks at 2022~2045 (with peak values 3.15~5.10 Pg C), and the predicted decay rates of C intensity were 2.1~4.2% in 2011~2050; (2) the precondition that the national C emission reaches the peak before 2030 is that the annual decay rates of C intensity must exceed 3.3% , as decay rates under different scenarios were predicted higher than that except for Past G8 scenario; (3) the national C emission would reach the peak before 2030, if the government of China should realize the C emissions reduction goals of China's 12th five-year plan, climate commitments of Copenhagen and INDC; (4) Chinese government could realize the goal of C emission peaking around 2030 from just controlling C emission intensity , but associated with relatively higher government's burden. In summary, China's C emission may well peak before 2030, meanwhile the combination of emissions reduction and economic macro-control would be demanded to avoid heavier social pressure of C emissions reduction occurred.

  5. Assessing the Energy and Emissions Implications of Alternative Population Scenarios Using a State-Level Integrated Assessment Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, W.; Nolte, C. G.; Loughlin, D. H.; Ou, Y.; Smith, S. J.

    2017-12-01

    We use GCAM-USA to examine the sensitivity of energy demands and resulting pollutant emissions and health impacts to differing population projections. The population projections are based on future fertility, mortality, migration and education assumptions consistent with the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) (Jones and O'Neill, 2016). By using a state-level integrated assessment model, we capture the energy and emissions implications of population changes. Additionally, we overlay heating degree days and cooling degree days calculated from climate change projections to assess the individual and combined impacts of population shifts and climate change. A unique aspect of this work is the explicit representation of important regulatory drivers, such as the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule and vehicle efficiency standards. Preliminary results indicate there are significant differences across population scenarios in both U.S. national and state-level emissions. In this presentation, we will examine the influence of underlying factors such as climate, population, and technology changes on emissions and environmental impacts at 2050.

  6. Fuel treatment effects on tree-based forest carbon storage and emissions under modeled wildfire scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    M. Hurteau; M. North

    2009-01-01

    Forests are viewed as a potential sink for carbon (C) that might otherwise contribute to climate change. It is unclear, however, how to manage forests with frequent fire regimes to maximize C storage while reducing C emissions from prescribed burns or wildfire. We modeled the effects of eight different fuel treatments on treebased C storage and release over a century,...

  7. Model study of the impact of biogenic emission on regional ozone and the effectiveness of emission reduction scenarios over eastern China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, Zhiwei; Matsuda, Kazuhide; Ueda, Hiromasa

    2005-01-01

    The impact of biogenic emission on regional ozone and emission control scenarios has been numerically studied through a series of sensitivity model simulations. A typical episode with elevated ozone over eastern China from 12 to 16 August 2001 was investigated by using a tropospheric chemistry and transport model (TCTM), driven by a non-hydrostatic mesoscale model MM5. The meteorological conditions during this period were characterized by high-pressure systems associated with low wind speeds, high temperatures and clear skies. Afternoon ozone concentrations exceeding 80 parts per billion (ppb) occurred over broad areas of eastern China. There is a generally good agreement between simulation and observation, indicating that the TCTM is able to represent major physical and chemical processes of tropospheric ozone and well reproduce the diurnal and day-to-day variability associated with synoptic conditions. The sensitivity analysis reveals a significant influence of biogenic hydrocarbons on regional ozone. Ozone levels are apparently enhanced by biogenic emission over large areas of eastern China. The largest increase up to 30 ppb in daytime average concentration is found in portions of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, Yangtze Delta and northeast China. However, the response of ozone to biogenic emission varies spatially, showing more sensitivity in polluted areas than that in clean rural areas. The regimes limited by nitrogen oxides (NO x ) and volatile organic carbon (VOC) in eastern China are further investigated with respect to biogenic emission. Ozone shows a clear tendency to shift from VOC limitation to NO x limitation as it moves from urban and industrial areas to rural areas. Most of the rural areas in southern China tend to be NO x limited, whereas most of the northern parts of China appear to be VOC limited. By considering biogenic emission, ozone tends to become more NO x limited and less VOC limited, both in extent and intensity, over eastern

  8. Particle reduction strategies - PAREST. Evaluation of emission reduction scenarios using chemical transport calculations. Traffic model TREMOD and traffic model TREMOVE. Sub-report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stern, Rainer

    2013-01-01

    The calculation of transport emissions in PAREST project is made with traffic model TREMOD 4.17 (Transport Emission Model) used by the Federal Environment Agency based on the emission factors of HBEFA 2.1 (Handbook on Emission Factors for Road Traffic). For the PAREST reference scenario 2010-2020 (CLE scenario, ''current legislation'') TREMOD 4.17 was changed (TREMOD 4.17M) in such way that measures ''Introduction of Euro 5 and 6 limit levels for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles'', ''Introduction of a limit value stage Euro VI for heavy commercial vehicles'' and ''Existing truck tolls including promoting the purchase of low-emission heavy duty vehicles'' are integrated in the reference scenario and are no longer treated as an additional measure (Joerss et al., 2010). As an alternative to TREMOD 4.17M emission data sets were created for the project, in which the traffic emissions were calculated with the TREMOVE, version 2.7 (Kugler et al., 2010). TREMOVE is the traffic model used by the European Commission for the development of traffic scenarios. This report documents the differences between the immission distributions of PM10 and NO 2 , resulting from the application of the European transport model. Considered are the reference 2005, which describes the current state for the year 2005 and the 2020 reference that describes the emission state in 2020 to be achieved. [de

  9. Biogeophysical Impacts of Land-Use Change on Climate Extremes in Low-Emission Scenarios: Results From HAPPI-Land

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirsch, Annette L.; Guillod, Benoit P.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Beyerle, Urs; Boysen, Lena R.; Brovkin, Victor; Davin, Edouard L.; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Kim, Hyungjun; Mitchell, Daniel M.; Nitta, Tomoko; Shiogama, Hideo; Sparrow, Sarah; Stehfest, Elke; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Wilson, Simon

    2018-03-01

    The impacts of land use have been shown to have considerable influence on regional climate. With the recent international commitment to limit global warming to well below 2°C, emission reductions need to be ambitious and could involve major land-use change (LUC). Land-based mitigation efforts to curb emissions growth include increasing terrestrial carbon sequestration through reforestation, or the adoption of bioenergy crops. These activities influence local climate through biogeophysical feedbacks, however, it is uncertain how important they are for a 1.5° climate target. This was the motivation for HAPPI-Land: the half a degree additional warming, prognosis, and projected impacts—land-use scenario experiment. Using four Earth system models, we present the first multimodel results from HAPPI-Land and demonstrate the critical role of land use for understanding the characteristics of regional climate extremes in low-emission scenarios. In particular, our results show that changes in temperature extremes due to LUC are comparable in magnitude to changes arising from half a degree of global warming. We also demonstrate that LUC contributes to more than 20% of the change in temperature extremes for large land areas concentrated over the Northern Hemisphere. However, we also identify sources of uncertainty that influence the multimodel consensus of our results including how LUC is implemented and the corresponding biogeophysical feedbacks that perturb climate. Therefore, our results highlight the urgent need to resolve the challenges in implementing LUC across models to quantify the impacts and consider how LUC contributes to regional changes in extremes associated with sustainable development pathways.

  10. Greenhouse gas emissions during plantation stage of palm oil-based biofuel production addressing different land conversion scenarios in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusin, Faradiella Mohd; Akhir, Nurul Izzati Mat; Mohamat-Yusuff, Ferdaus; Awang, Muhamad

    2017-02-01

    The environmental impacts with regard to agro-based biofuel production have been associated with the impact of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this study, field GHG emissions during plantation stage of palm oil-based biofuel production associated with land use changes for oil palm plantation development have been evaluated. Three different sites of different land use changes prior to oil palm plantation were chosen; converted land-use (large and small-scales) and logged-over forest. Field sampling for determination of soil N-mineralisation and soil organic carbon (SOC) was undertaken at the sites according to the age of palm, i.e. 21 years (mature oil palms). The field data were incorporated into the estimation of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) and the resulting CO 2 -eq emissions as well as for estimation of carbon stock changes. Irrespective of the land conversion scenarios, the nitrous oxide emissions were found in the range of 6.47-7.78 kg N 2 O-N/ha resulting in 498-590 kg CO 2 -eq/ha. On the other hand, the conversion of tropical forest into oil palm plantation has resulted in relatively higher GHG emissions (i.e. four times higher and carbon stock reduction by >50%) compared to converted land use (converted rubber plantation) for oil palm development. The conversion from previously rubber plantation into oil palm plantation would increase the carbon savings (20% in increase) thus sustaining the environmental benefits from the palm oil-based biofuel production.

  11. Impact of passenger car NOX emissions on urban NO2 pollution - Scenario analysis for 8 European cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Degraeuwe, Bart; Thunis, Philippe; Clappier, Alain; Weiss, Martin; Lefebvre, Wouter; Janssen, Stijn; Vranckx, Stijn

    2017-12-01

    Residents of large European cities are exposed to NO2 concentrations that often exceed the established air quality standards. Diesel cars have been identified as a major contributor to this situation; yet, it remains unclear to which levels the NOX emissions of diesel cars have to decrease to effectively mitigate urban NO2 pollution across Europe. Here, we take a continental perspective and model urban NO2 pollution in a generic street canyon of 8 major European cities for various NOX emission scenarios. We find that a reduction in the on-road NOX emissions of diesel cars to the Euro 6 level can in general decrease the regional and urban NO2 concentrations and thereby the frequency of exceedances of the NO2 air quality standard. High NO2 fractions in the NOX emissions of diesel cars tend to increase the urban NO2 concentrations only in proximity of intense road traffic typically found on artery roads in large cities like Paris and London. In cities with a low share of diesel cars in the vehicle fleet such as Athens or a high contribution from the NO2 background to the urban NO2 pollution such as Krakow, measures addressing heavy-duty vehicles, and the manufacturing, energy, and mining industry are necessary to decrease urban air pollution. We regard our model results as robust albeit subject to uncertainty resulting from the application of a generic street layout. With small modifications in the input parameters, our model could be used to assess the impact of NOX emissions from road transport on NO2 air pollution in any European city.

  12. Effects of Kosovo's energy use scenarios and associated gas emissions on its climate change and sustainable development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kabashi, Skender; Bekteshi, Sadik; Ahmetaj, Skender [Faculty of Mathematical and Natural Sciences, University of Prishtina (RS); Kabashi, Gazmend [Faculty of Electric Engineering and Computer Sciences, University of Prishtina, Prishtina (RS); Najdovski, Dimitrij [X3DATA, Novi trg 6, Ljubljana (Slovenia); Zidansek, Aleksander [Jozef Stefan Institute and Jozef Stefan International Postgraduate School, Jamova 39, Ljubljana (Slovenia); Slaus, Ivo [R. Boskovic Institute, Bijenicka 54, Zagreb (Croatia)

    2011-02-15

    Climate change will be the first truly global challenge for sustainability. Energy production and consumption from fossil fuels has central role in respect to climate change, but also to sustainability in general. Because climate change is regionally driven with global consequences and is a result of economic imperatives and social values, it requires a redefinition as to the balance of these outcomes globally and regionally in Kosovo. Kosovo as one of the richest countries with lignite in Europe, with 95-97% of the electric power production from lignite and with 90% of vehicles over 10 years old, represents one of the regions with the greatest ratio of CO{sub 2} emissions per unit of GDP, as well as one of the countries with the most polluted atmosphere in Europe. The modelling is carried out regionally for Kosovo for two dynamical systems which are the main emitters of greenhouse gases (CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4}, NO{sub x}, etc.) and air pollutants (CO, SO{sub 2}, dust CH{sub x}, etc.): electricity generation and transportation emissions systems, for the time period 2000-2025. Various energy scenarios of the future are shown. We demonstrate that a transition to environmentally compatible sustainable energy use in Kosovo is possible. Implementing the emission reduction policies and introducing new technologies in electrical power production and transportation in Kosovo ensure a sustainable future development in Kosovo, electric power production and transport that become increasingly environmentally compatible. (author)

  13. Effects of Kosovo's energy use scenarios and associated gas emissions on its climate change and sustainable development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kabashi, Skender; Bekteshi, Sadik; Ahmetaj, Skender; Kabashi, Gazmend; Najdovski, Dimitrij; Zidansek, Aleksander; Slaus, Ivo

    2011-01-01

    Climate change will be the first truly global challenge for sustainability. Energy production and consumption from fossil fuels has central role in respect to climate change, but also to sustainability in general. Because climate change is regionally driven with global consequences and is a result of economic imperatives and social values, it requires a redefinition as to the balance of these outcomes globally and regionally in Kosovo. Kosovo as one of the richest countries with lignite in Europe, with 95-97% of the electric power production from lignite and with 90% of vehicles over 10 years old, represents one of the regions with the greatest ratio of CO 2 emissions per unit of GDP, as well as one of the countries with the most polluted atmosphere in Europe. The modelling is carried out regionally for Kosovo for two dynamical systems which are the main emitters of greenhouse gases (CO 2 , CH 4 , NO x , etc.) and air pollutants (CO, SO 2 , dust CH x , etc.): electricity generation and transportation emissions systems, for the time period 2000-2025. Various energy scenarios of the future are shown. We demonstrate that a transition to environmentally compatible sustainable energy use in Kosovo is possible. Implementing the emission reduction policies and introducing new technologies in electrical power production and transportation in Kosovo ensure a sustainable future development in Kosovo, electric power production and transport that become increasingly environmentally compatible.

  14. Technology and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: An Integrated Scenario Analysis using the LBNL-NEMS model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koomey, J.G.; Latiner, S.; Markel, R.J.; Marnay, C.; Richey, R.C.

    1998-01-01

    This report describes an analysis of possible technology-based scenarios for the U.S. energy system that would result in both carbon savings and net economic benefits. We use a modified version of the Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System (LBNL-NEMS) to assess the potential energy, carbon, and bill savings from a portfolio of carbon saving options. This analysis is based on technology resource potentials estimated in previous bottom-up studies, but it uses the integrated LBNL-NEMS framework to assess interactions and synergies among these options. The analysis in this paper builds on previous estimates of possible ''technology paths'' to investigate four major components of an aggressive greenhouse gas reduction strategy: (1) the large scale implementation of demand-side efficiency, comparable in scale to that presented in two recent policy studies on this topic; (2) a variety of ''alternative'' electricity supply-side options, including biomass cofiring, extension of the renewable production tax credit for wind, increased industrial cogeneration, and hydropower refurbishment. (3) the economic retirement of older and less efficient existing fossil-find power plants; and (4) a permit charge of $23 per metric ton of carbon (1996 $/t),l assuming that carbon trading is implemented in the US, and that the carbon permit charge equilibrates at this level. This level of carbon permit charge, as discussed later in the report, is in the likely range for the Clinton Administration's position on this topic

  15. Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emission Evaluation Scenarios of Mea Fah Luang University

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laingoen Onn

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In Thailand, quantity of the educational institutes building shared one fourth of commercial building. Among the energy consumption and conservation in the building in Thailand are mostly study in typical office and resident building. Mea Fah Luang University (MFU was selected to represent the educational institutes building where located in the northern part of Thailand. The average temperature in the northern is lower than other parts of Thailand. This study was firstly collected the data about quantity and behaviour of energy consumption in MFU based on the energy audit handbook. Although MFU is located in the northern of Thailand. The highest energy consumption is in the part of air condition. When the energy efficiency appliances and energy conservation building are implemented, the cost of energy will be saved around 15,867,960 Baht. Furthermore, the greenhouse gas emission is also reduced about 72.01 kg CO2, equivalent/m2/year.

  16. Assessment of the impact of the greenhouse gas emission and sink scenarios in Finland on radiative forcing and greenhouse effect

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Savolainen, I.; Sinisalo, J.; Pipatti, R. [Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo (Finland)

    1996-12-31

    The objective of this work is to study greenhouse gas emissions and sinks and their greenhouse impact as a function of time. The greenhouse impact is expressed in terms of global average radiative forcing, which measures the perturbation in the Earth`s radiation budget. Radiative forcing is calculated on the basis of the concentration changes of the greenhouse gases and the radiation absorption properties of the gases. It takes into account the relatively slow changes in the concentrations due to natural removal and transformation processes and also allows a comparison of the impact of various greenhouse gases and their possible control options as a function of time. In addition to the applications mentioned above, the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission histories of Nordic countries have been estimated, and the radiative forcing caused by them has been calculated with REFUGE. The dynamic impact of aerosol emissions both from the global point of view and in the context of different energy sources (coal, oil and natural gas) have also been studied. In some instances the caused radiative forcing has been examined on a per capita basis. The radiative forcing calculations contain considerable uncertainty due to inaccurately known factors at several stages of the calculation (emission estimation, concentration calculation and radiative forcing calculation). The total uncertainty of the results is typically on the order of +- 40 %, when absolute values are used. If the results are used in a relative way, e.g. to compare the impacts of different scenarios, the final uncertainty is considerably less (typically + 10 %), due to correlations in almost all stages of the calculation process

  17. Assessment of the impact of the greenhouse gas emission and sink scenarios in Finland on radiative forcing and greenhouse effect

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Savolainen, I; Sinisalo, J; Pipatti, R [Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo (Finland)

    1997-12-31

    The objective of this work is to study greenhouse gas emissions and sinks and their greenhouse impact as a function of time. The greenhouse impact is expressed in terms of global average radiative forcing, which measures the perturbation in the Earth`s radiation budget. Radiative forcing is calculated on the basis of the concentration changes of the greenhouse gases and the radiation absorption properties of the gases. It takes into account the relatively slow changes in the concentrations due to natural removal and transformation processes and also allows a comparison of the impact of various greenhouse gases and their possible control options as a function of time. In addition to the applications mentioned above, the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission histories of Nordic countries have been estimated, and the radiative forcing caused by them has been calculated with REFUGE. The dynamic impact of aerosol emissions both from the global point of view and in the context of different energy sources (coal, oil and natural gas) have also been studied. In some instances the caused radiative forcing has been examined on a per capita basis. The radiative forcing calculations contain considerable uncertainty due to inaccurately known factors at several stages of the calculation (emission estimation, concentration calculation and radiative forcing calculation). The total uncertainty of the results is typically on the order of +- 40 %, when absolute values are used. If the results are used in a relative way, e.g. to compare the impacts of different scenarios, the final uncertainty is considerably less (typically + 10 %), due to correlations in almost all stages of the calculation process

  18. Assessment of emission scenarios for 2030 and impacts of black carbon emission reduction measures on air quality and radiative forcing in Southeast Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. A. Permadi

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Our previously published paper (Permadi et al. 2018 focused on the preparation of emission input data and evaluation of WRF–CHIMERE performance in 2007. This paper details the impact assessment of the future (2030 black carbon (BC emission reduction measures for Southeast Asia (SEA countries on air quality, health and BC direct radiative forcing (DRF. The business as usual (BAU2030 projected emissions from the base year of 2007 (BY2007, assuming no intervention with the linear projection of the emissions based on the past activity data for Indonesia and Thailand and the sectoral GDP growth for other countries. The RED2030 featured measures to cut down emissions in major four source sectors in Indonesia and Thailand (road transport, residential cooking, industry, biomass open burning while for other countries the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5 emissions were assumed. WRF–CHIMERE simulated levels of aerosol species under BAU2030 and RED2030 for the modeling domain using the base year meteorology and 2030 boundary conditions from LMDZ-INCA. The extended aerosol optical depth module (AODEM calculated the total columnar AOD and BC AOD for all scenarios with an assumption on the internal mixing state. Under RED2030, the health benefits were analyzed in terms of the number of avoided premature deaths associated with ambient PM2.5 reduction along with BC DRF reduction. Under BAU2030, the average number of the premature deaths per 100 000 people in the SEA domain would increase by 30 from BY2007 while under RED2030 the premature deaths would be cut down (avoided by 63 from RED2030. In 2007, the maximum annual average BC DRF in the SEA countries was 0.98 W m−2, which would increase to 2.0 W m−2 under BAU2030 and 1.4 W m−2 under RED2030. Substantial impacts on human health and BC DRF reduction in SEA could result from the emission measures incorporated in RED2030. Future works should consider other impacts, such

  19. Assessment of emission scenarios for 2030 and impacts of black carbon emission reduction measures on air quality and radiative forcing in Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agustian Permadi, Didin; Oanh, Nguyen Thi Kim; Vautard, Robert

    2018-03-01

    Our previously published paper (Permadi et al. 2018) focused on the preparation of emission input data and evaluation of WRF-CHIMERE performance in 2007. This paper details the impact assessment of the future (2030) black carbon (BC) emission reduction measures for Southeast Asia (SEA) countries on air quality, health and BC direct radiative forcing (DRF). The business as usual (BAU2030) projected emissions from the base year of 2007 (BY2007), assuming no intervention with the linear projection of the emissions based on the past activity data for Indonesia and Thailand and the sectoral GDP growth for other countries. The RED2030 featured measures to cut down emissions in major four source sectors in Indonesia and Thailand (road transport, residential cooking, industry, biomass open burning) while for other countries the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emissions were assumed. WRF-CHIMERE simulated levels of aerosol species under BAU2030 and RED2030 for the modeling domain using the base year meteorology and 2030 boundary conditions from LMDZ-INCA. The extended aerosol optical depth module (AODEM) calculated the total columnar AOD and BC AOD for all scenarios with an assumption on the internal mixing state. Under RED2030, the health benefits were analyzed in terms of the number of avoided premature deaths associated with ambient PM2.5 reduction along with BC DRF reduction. Under BAU2030, the average number of the premature deaths per 100 000 people in the SEA domain would increase by 30 from BY2007 while under RED2030 the premature deaths would be cut down (avoided) by 63 from RED2030. In 2007, the maximum annual average BC DRF in the SEA countries was 0.98 W m-2, which would increase to 2.0 W m-2 under BAU2030 and 1.4 W m-2 under RED2030. Substantial impacts on human health and BC DRF reduction in SEA could result from the emission measures incorporated in RED2030. Future works should consider other impacts, such as for agricultural crop production

  20. Assessing concentrations and health impacts of air quality management strategies: Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation (FRESH-EST).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milando, Chad W; Martenies, Sheena E; Batterman, Stuart A

    2016-09-01

    In air quality management, reducing emissions from pollutant sources often forms the primary response to attaining air quality standards and guidelines. Despite the broad success of air quality management in the US, challenges remain. As examples: allocating emissions reductions among multiple sources is complex and can require many rounds of negotiation; health impacts associated with emissions, the ultimate driver for the standards, are not explicitly assessed; and long dispersion model run-times, which result from the increasing size and complexity of model inputs, limit the number of scenarios that can be evaluated, thus increasing the likelihood of missing an optimal strategy. A new modeling framework, called the "Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation" (FRESH-EST), is presented to respond to these challenges. FRESH-EST estimates concentrations and health impacts of alternative emissions scenarios at the urban scale, providing efficient computations from emissions to health impacts at the Census block or other desired spatial scale. In addition, FRESH-EST can optimize emission reductions to meet specified environmental and health constraints, and a convenient user interface and graphical displays are provided to facilitate scenario evaluation. The new framework is demonstrated in an SO2 non-attainment area in southeast Michigan with two optimization strategies: the first minimizes emission reductions needed to achieve a target concentration; the second minimizes concentrations while holding constant the cumulative emissions across local sources (e.g., an emissions floor). The optimized strategies match outcomes in the proposed SO2 State Implementation Plan without the proposed stack parameter modifications or shutdowns. In addition, the lower health impacts estimated for these strategies suggest that FRESH-EST could be used to identify potentially more desirable pollution control alternatives in air quality management planning

  1. Integrated modelling of economic-energy-environment scenarios - The impact of China and India's economic growth on energy use and CO2 emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roques, F.; Sassi, O.; Guivarch, C.; Waisman, H.; Crassous, R.; Hourcade, J.Ch.

    2009-03-01

    A hybrid framework coupling the bottom-up energy sector WEM model with the top-down general equilibrium model IMACLIM-R is implemented to capture the macro-economic feedbacks of Chinese and Indian economic growth on energy and emissions scenarios. The iterative coupling procedure captures the detailed representation of energy use and supply while ensuring the micro-economic and macro-economic consistency of the different scenarios studied. The dual representation of the hybrid model facilitates the incorporation of energy sector expertise in internally consistent scenarios. The paper describes how the hybrid model was used to assess the effect of uncertainty on economic growth in China and India in the energy and emissions scenarios of the International Energy Agency. (authors)

  2. Prompt Neutrino Emission of Gamma-ray Bursts in the Dissipative Photospheric Scenario Revisited: Possible Contributions from Cocoons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xiao, Di; Dai, Zi-Gao [School of Astronomy and Space Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093 (China); Mészáros, Peter, E-mail: dzg@nju.edu.cn [Center for Particle and Gravitational Astrophysics, Department of Physics, Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802 (United States)

    2017-07-01

    High-energy neutrinos are expected to originate from different stages in a gamma-ray burst (GRB) event. In this work, we revisit the dissipative photospheric scenario, in which the GRB prompt emission is produced around the photospheric radius. Meanwhile, possible dissipation mechanisms (e.g., internal shocks or magnetic reconnection) could accelerate cosmic-rays (CRs) to ultra-high energies and then produce neutrinos via hadronuclear and photohadronic processes, which are referred to as prompt neutrinos . In this paper, we obtain the prompt neutrino spectrum of a single GRB within a self-consistent analytical framework, in which the jet-cocoon structure and possible collimation effects are included. We investigate a possible neutrino signal from the cocoon, which has been ignored in the previous studies. We show that if a GRB event happens at a distance of the order of Mpc, there is a great chance to observe the neutrino emission from the cocoon by IceCube, which is even more promising than jet neutrinos, as the opening angle of the cocoon is much larger. We also determine the diffuse neutrino flux of GRB cocoons and find that it could be comparable with that of the jets. Our results are consistent with the latest result reported by the IceCube collaboration that no significant correlation between neutrino events and observed GRBs is seen in the new data.

  3. Scenario analysis of energy saving and CO_2 emissions reduction potentials to ratchet up Japanese mitigation target in 2030 in the residential sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wakiyama, Takako; Kuramochi, Takeshi

    2017-01-01

    This paper assesses to what extent CO_2 emissions from electricity in the residential sector can be further reduced in Japan beyond its post-2020 mitigation target (known as “Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC)”). The paper examines the reduction potential of electricity demand and CO_2 emissions in the residential sector by conducting a scenario analysis. Electricity consumption scenarios are set up using a time-series regression model, and used to forecast the electricity consumption patterns to 2030. The scenario analysis also includes scenarios that reduce electricity consumption through enhanced energy efficiency and energy saving measures. The obtained results show that Japan can reduce electricity consumption and CO_2 emissions in the residential sector in 2030 more than the Japanese post-2020 mitigation target indicates. At the maximum, the electricity consumption could be reduced by 35 TWh, which contributes to 55.4 MtCO_2 of emissions reduction in 2030 compared to 2013 if the voluntarily targeted CO_2 intensity of electricity is achieved. The result implies that Japan has the potential to ratchet up post-2020 mitigation targets discussed under the Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). - Highlights: • Further reduction of electricity consumption is possible beyond Japan's post-2020 mitigation target. • Energy saving efforts by households and incentives to reduce electricity demands are required. • Improvement of CO_2 intensity from electricity is a key factor in the reduction of CO_2 emissions.

  4. Future methane emissions from the heavy-duty natural gas transportation sector for stasis, high, medium, and low scenarios in 2035.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Nigel N; Johnson, Derek R; McKain, David L; Wayne, W Scott; Li, Hailin; Rudek, Joseph; Mongold, Ronald A; Sandoval, Cesar; Covington, April N; Hailer, John T

    2017-12-01

    Today's heavy-duty natural gas-fueled fleet is estimated to represent less than 2% of the total fleet. However, over the next couple of decades, predictions are that the percentage could grow to represent as much as 50%. Although fueling switching to natural gas could provide a climate benefit relative to diesel fuel, the potential for emissions of methane (a potent greenhouse gas) from natural gas-fueled vehicles has been identified as a concern. Since today's heavy-duty natural gas-fueled fleet penetration is low, today's total fleet-wide emissions will be also be low regardless of per vehicle emissions. However, predicted growth could result in a significant quantity of methane emissions. To evaluate this potential and identify effective options for minimizing emissions, future growth scenarios of heavy-duty natural gas-fueled vehicles, and compressed natural gas and liquefied natural gas fueling stations that serve them, have been developed for 2035, when the populations could be significant. The scenarios rely on the most recent measurement campaign of the latest manufactured technology, equipment, and vehicles reported in a companion paper as well as projections of technology and practice advances. These "pump-to-wheels"(PTW) projections do not include methane emissions outside of the bounds of the vehicles and fuel stations themselves and should not be confused with a complete wells-to-wheels analysis. Stasis, high, medium, and low scenario PTW emissions projections for 2035 were 1.32%, 0.67%, 0.33%, and 0.15% of the fuel used. The scenarios highlight that a large emissions reductions could be realized with closed crankcase operation, improved best practices, and implementation of vent mitigation technologies. Recognition of the potential pathways for emissions reductions could further enhance the heavy-duty transportation sectors ability to reduce carbon emissions. Newly collected pump-to-wheels methane emissions data for current natural gas technologies

  5. Life-cycle analysis of energy use, greenhouse gas emissions, and water consumption in the 2016 MYPP algal biofuel scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frank, Edward [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Pegallapati, Ambica K. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Davis, Ryan [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Markham, Jennifer [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Coleman, Andre [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Jones, Sue [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wigmosta, Mark S. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhu, Yunhua [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2016-06-16

    The Department of Energy (DOE) Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) Multi-year Program Plan (MYPP) describes the bioenergy objectives pursued by BETO, the strategies for achieving those objectives, the current state of technology (SOT), and a number of design cases that explore cost and operational performance required to advance the SOT towards middle and long term goals (MYPP, 2016). Two options for converting algae to biofuel intermediates were considered in the MYPP, namely algal biofuel production via lipid extraction and algal biofuel production by thermal processing. The first option, lipid extraction, is represented by the Combined Algae Processing (CAP) pathway in which algae are hydrolyzed in a weak acid pretreatment step. The treated slurry is fermented for ethanol production from sugars. The fermentation stillage contains most of the lipids from the original biomass, which are recovered through wet solvent extraction. The process residuals after lipid extraction, which contain much of the original mass of amino acids and proteins, are directed to anaerobic digestion (AD) for biogas production and recycle of N and P nutrients. The second option, thermal processing, comprises direct hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) of the wet biomass, separation of aqueous, gas, and oil phases, and treatment of the aqueous phase with catalytic hydrothermal gasification (CHG) to produce biogas and to recover N and P nutrients. The present report describes a life cycle analysis of energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the CAP and HTL options for the three scenarios just described. Water use is also reported. Water use during algal biofuel production comes from evaporation during cultivation, discharge to bleed streams to control pond salinity (“blowdown”), and from use during preprocessing and upgrading. For scenarios considered to date, most water use was from evaporation and, secondarily, from bleed streams. Other use was relatively small at the level of

  6. South Africa's greenhouse gas emissions under business-as-usual: The technical basis of 'Growth without Constraints' in the Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winkler, Harald; Hughes, Alison; Marquard, Andrew; Haw, Mary; Merven, Bruno

    2011-01-01

    This article describes the methodology for projecting business-as-usual GHG trajectory developed in technical work for South Africa's Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios (LTMSs), in particular the 'Growth without Constraints' (GWCs) scenario. Technically rigorous projections are important as developing countries define their commitment to act on mitigation relative to business-as-usual (BAU). The key drivers for the GWC scenario include GDP (both growth rate and composition), population, discount rate and technological change. GDP emerged as an important driver in the research for LTMS and further analysis. If South Africa's economy grows without constraints over the next few decades, GHG emissions will continue to escalate, multiplying more than four-fold by mid-century. There is little gain in energy efficiency, and emissions continue to be dominated by energy use and supply, the latter remaining coal-based in GWC. We analyse the projections (not predictions) in relation to various measures. The LTMS GWC scenario is compared to other projections, nationally and internationally. A broadly comparable projection is being used at national level, for electricity planning. When compared to projections from international models, we find that the assumptions about GDP growth rates are a key factor, and suggest that comparisons of global data-sets against national analyses is important. - Highlights: → Specifies business-as-usual GHG trajectory for South Africa's Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios. → Provides details on methodology, drivers of emissions and key parameters. → In a scenario of Growth without Constraints, emissions would quadruple by 2050. → Analysis of resulting emission projection, not a prediction. → Compares projections from other national and international models.

  7. Particle Reduction Strategies - PAREST. Traffic emission modelling. Model comparision and alternative scenarios. Sub-report; Strategien zur Verminderung der Feinstaubbelastung - PAREST. Verkehrsemissionsmodellierung. Modellvergleich und Alternative Szenarien. Teilbericht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kugler, Ulrike; Theloke, Jochen [Stuttgart Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung (IER); Joerss, Wolfram [Institut fuer Zukunftsstudien und Technologiebewertung gGmbH (IZT), Berlin (Germany)

    2013-06-15

    The modeling of the reference scenario and the various reduction scenarios in PAREST was based on the Central System of Emissions (CSE) (CSE, 2007). Emissions from road traffic were calculated by using the traffic emission model TREMOD (Knoerr et al., 2005) and fed into the CSE. The version TREMOD 4.17 has been used. The resulting emission levels in PAREST reference scenario were supplemented by the emission-reducing effect of the implementation of the future Euro 5 and 6 emission standards for cars and light commercial vehicles and Euro VI for heavy commercial vehicles in combination with the truck toll extension. [German] Die Modellierung des Referenzszenarios und der verschiedenen Minderungsszenarien in PAREST erfolgte auf Grundlage des Zentralen System Emissionen (ZSE) (ZSE, 2007). Emissionen aus dem Strassenverkehr wurden mit Hilfe des Verkehrsemissionsmodells TREMOD (Knoerr et al., 2005) berechnet und in das ZSE eingespeist. Dabei wurde die Version TREMOD 4.17 verwendet. Die daraus resultierenden Emissionsmengen wurden im PAREST-Referenzszenario um die emissionsmindernde Wirkung der zukuenftigen Implementierung der Abgasnormen Euro 5 und 6 fuer Pkw und leichte Nutzfahrzeuge sowie Euro VI fuer schwere Nutzfahrzeuge in Kombination einer Erweiterung der Lkw-Maut ergaenzt. Die Berechnung der Emissionen des Referenzszenarios wurde auf Grundlage des Inlandsprinzips sowie des Energiebilanzprinzips durchgefuehrt. Die auf dieser Grundlage berechneten Emissionen fuer das Basisjahr 2005 und fuer die Referenzjahre 2010, 2015 und 2020 unterscheiden sich teilweise erheblich von den mit Hilfe des Modells TREMOVE (dem von der EU Kommission verwendeten Modell fuer mobile Quellen) berechneten Emissionen.

  8. The land-use projections and resulting emissions in the IPCC SRES scenarios as simulated by the IMAGE 2.2 model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strengers, B.; Eickhout, B.; De Vries, B.; Bouwman, L.; Leemans, R.

    2005-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) developed a new series of emission scenarios (SRES). Six global models were used to develop SRES but most focused primarily on energy and industry related emissions. Land-use emissions were only covered by three models, where IMAGE included the most detailed, spatially explicit description of global land-use and land-cover dynamics. To complement their calculations the other models used land-use emission from AIM and IMAGE, leading to inconsistent estimates. Representation of the land-use emissions in SRES is therefore poor. This paper presents details on the IMAGE 2.1 land-use results to complement the SRES report. The IMAGE SRES scenarios are based on the original IPCC SRES assumptions and narratives using the latest version of IMAGE (IMAGE 2.2). IMAGE provides comprehensive emission estimates because not only emissions are addressed but also the resulting atmospheric concentrations, climate change and impacts. Additionally, in SRES the scenario assumptions were only presented and quantified for 4 'macro-regions'. The IMAGE 2.2 SRES implementation has been extended towards 17 regions. We focus on land-use aspects and show that land-related emissions not only depend on population projections but also on the temporal and spatial dynamics of different land-related sources and sinks of greenhouse gases. We also illustrate the importance of systemic feed backs and interactions in the climate system that influence land-use emissions, such as deforestation and forest regrowth, soil respiration and CO2-fertilisation

  9. Impact of regional climate change and future emission scenarios on surface O3 and PM2.5 over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pommier, Matthieu; Fagerli, Hilde; Gauss, Michael; Simpson, David; Sharma, Sumit; Sinha, Vinay; Ghude, Sachin D.; Landgren, Oskar; Nyiri, Agnes; Wind, Peter

    2018-01-01

    Eleven of the world's 20 most polluted cities are located in India and poor air quality is already a major public health issue. However, anthropogenic emissions are predicted to increase substantially in the short-term (2030) and medium-term (2050) futures in India, especially if no further policy efforts are made. In this study, the EMEP/MSC-W chemical transport model has been used to predict changes in surface ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) for India in a world of changing emissions and climate. The reference scenario (for present-day) is evaluated against surface-based measurements, mainly at urban stations. The evaluation has also been extended to other data sets which are publicly available on the web but without quality assurance. The evaluation shows high temporal correlation for O3 (r = 0.9) and high spatial correlation for PM2.5 (r = 0.5 and r = 0.8 depending on the data set) between the model results and observations. While the overall bias in PM2.5 is small (lower than 6 %), the model overestimates O3 by 35 %. The underestimation in NOx titration is probably the main reason for the O3 overestimation in the model. However, the level of agreement can be considered satisfactory in this case of a regional model being evaluated against mainly urban measurements, and given the inevitable uncertainties in much of the input data.For the 2050s, the model predicts that climate change will have distinct effects in India in terms of O3 pollution, with a region in the north characterized by a statistically significant increase by up to 4 % (2 ppb) and one in the south by a decrease up to -3 % (-1.4 ppb). This variation in O3 is assumed to be partly related to changes in O3 deposition velocity caused by changes in soil moisture and, over a few areas, partly also by changes in biogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds.Our calculations suggest that PM2.5 will increase by up to 6.5 % over the Indo-Gangetic Plain by the 2050s. The increase over India

  10. Impact of regional climate change and future emission scenarios on surface O3 and PM2.5 over India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Pommier

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Eleven of the world's 20 most polluted cities are located in India and poor air quality is already a major public health issue. However, anthropogenic emissions are predicted to increase substantially in the short-term (2030 and medium-term (2050 futures in India, especially if no further policy efforts are made. In this study, the EMEP/MSC-W chemical transport model has been used to predict changes in surface ozone (O3 and fine particulate matter (PM2.5 for India in a world of changing emissions and climate. The reference scenario (for present-day is evaluated against surface-based measurements, mainly at urban stations. The evaluation has also been extended to other data sets which are publicly available on the web but without quality assurance. The evaluation shows high temporal correlation for O3 (r =  0.9 and high spatial correlation for PM2.5 (r =  0.5 and r =  0.8 depending on the data set between the model results and observations. While the overall bias in PM2.5 is small (lower than 6 %, the model overestimates O3 by 35 %. The underestimation in NOx titration is probably the main reason for the O3 overestimation in the model. However, the level of agreement can be considered satisfactory in this case of a regional model being evaluated against mainly urban measurements, and given the inevitable uncertainties in much of the input data.For the 2050s, the model predicts that climate change will have distinct effects in India in terms of O3 pollution, with a region in the north characterized by a statistically significant increase by up to 4 % (2 ppb and one in the south by a decrease up to −3 % (−1.4 ppb. This variation in O3 is assumed to be partly related to changes in O3 deposition velocity caused by changes in soil moisture and, over a few areas, partly also by changes in biogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds.Our calculations suggest that PM2.5 will increase by up to 6.5 % over the Indo

  11. Evaluation of lifecycle CO2 emissions from the Japanese electric power sector in the 21st century under various nuclear scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tokimatsu, Koji; Kosugi, Takanobu; Asami, Takayoshi; Williams, Eric; Kaya, Yoichi

    2006-01-01

    The status and prospects of the development of Japanese nuclear power are controversial and uncertain. Many deem that nuclear power can play key roles in both supplying energy and abating CO 2 emissions; however, due to severe nuclear accidents, public acceptance of nuclear power in Japan has not been fully obtained. Moreover, deregulation and liberalization of the electricity market impose pressure on large Japanese electric power companies with regard to both the operation of nuclear power plants and the development of the nuclear fuel cycle. Long-term Japanese CO 2 reduction strategies up to 2100 are of environmental concern and are socially demanded under the circumstances described above. Taking these factors into account, we set the following two objectives for this study. One is to estimate lifecycle CO 2 (LCCO 2 ) emissions from Japanese nuclear power, and the other is to evaluate CO 2 emissions from the Japanese electric power sector in the 21st century by quantifying the relationship between LCCO 2 emissions and scenarios for the adoption of nuclear power. In the pursuit of the above objectives, we first create four scenarios of Japanese adoption of nuclear power, that range from nuclear power promotion to phase-out. Next, we formulate four scenarios describing the mix of the total electricity supply in Japan till the year 2100 corresponding to each of these nuclear power scenarios. CO 2 emissions from the electric power sector in Japan till the year 2100 are estimated by summing those generated by each respective electric power technology and LCCO 2 emission intensity. The LCCO 2 emission intensity of nuclear power for both light water reactors (LWR) and fast breeder reactors (FBR) includes the uranium fuel production chain, facility construction/operation/decommission, and spent fuel processing/disposal. From our investigations, we conclude that the promotion of nuclear power is clearly a strong option for reducing CO 2 emissions by the electric power

  12. Continentality in Europe according to various resolution regional climate models with A1B scenario in the 21st century

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Szabó-Takács, Beáta; Farda, Aleš; Zahradníček, Pavel; Štěpánek, Petr

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 119, č. 4 (2015), s. 515-535 ISSN 0324-6329 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.3.20.0248 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : continentality * Gorczynsky index * Conrad index * ENSEMBLES * climate change * E-OBS Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 0.810, year: 2015

  13. Assessment of air quality benefits from national air pollution control policies in China. Part I: Background, emission scenarios and evaluation of meteorological predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Litao; Jang, Carey; Zhang, Yang; Wang, Kai; Zhang, Qiang; Streets, David; Fu, Joshua; Lei, Yu; Schreifels, Jeremy; He, Kebin; Hao, Jiming; Lam, Yun-Fat; Lin, Jerry; Meskhidze, Nicholas; Voorhees, Scott; Evarts, Dale; Phillips, Sharon

    2010-09-01

    Under the 11th Five Year Plan (FYP, 2006-2010) for national environmental protection by the Chinese government, the overarching goal for sulfur dioxide (SO 2) controls is to achieve a total national emissions level of SO 2 in 2010 10% lower than the level in 2005. A similar nitrogen oxides (NO x) emissions control plan is currently under development and could be enforced during the 12th FYP (2011-2015). In this study, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S.EPA)'s Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (Models-3/CMAQ) modeling system was applied to assess the air quality improvement that would result from the targeted SO 2 and NO x emission controls in China. Four emission scenarios — the base year 2005, the 2010 Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario, the 2010 SO 2 control scenario, and the 2010 NO x control scenario—were constructed and simulated to assess the air quality change from the national control plan. The Fifth-Generation NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model (MM5) was applied to generate the meteorological fields for the CMAQ simulations. In this Part I paper, the model performance for the simulated meteorology was evaluated against observations for the base case in terms of temperature, wind speed, wind direction, and precipitation. It is shown that MM5 model gives an overall good performance for these meteorological variables. The generated meteorological fields are acceptable for using in the CMAQ modeling.

  14. Evaluating adaptation options for urban flooding based on new high-end emission scenario regional climate model simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Leonardsen, L.; Madsen, Henrik

    2015-01-01

    Climate change adaptation studies on urban flooding are often based on a model chain approach from climate forcing scenarios to analysis of adaptation measures. Previous analyses of climate change impacts in Copenhagen, Denmark, were supplemented by 2 high-end scenario simulations. These include...... a regional climate model projection forced to a global temperature increase of 6 degrees C in 2100 as well as a projection based on a high radiative forcing scenario (RCP8.5). With these scenarios, projected impacts of extreme precipitation increase significantly. For extreme sea surges, the impacts do...... by almost 4 and 8 times the current EAD for the RCP8.5 and 6 degrees C scenario, respectively. For both hazards, business-as-usual is not a possible scenario, since even in the absence of policy-driven changes, significant autonomous adaptation is likely to occur. Copenhagen has developed an adaptation plan...

  15. Particle Reduction Strategies - PAREST. Emissions in PAREST reference scenario 2005-2020; Strategien zur Verminderung der Feinstaubbelastung - PAREST. Emissionen im PAREST-Referenzszenario 2005-2020

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joerss, Wolfram [Institut fuer Zukunftsstudien und Technologiebewertung gGmbH (IZT), Berlin (Germany); Kugler, Ulrike; Theloke, Jochen [Stuttgart Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung (IER)

    2013-06-15

    In the research project PAREST emission scenarios to 2020 for particulate matter (PM{sub 10} und PM{sub 2,5}), and aerosol precursors SO{sub 2}, NO{sub x}, NH{sub 3} and NMVOC were prepared for Germany and Europe, mitigation measures evaluated and the results used to model the PM pollution load for Germany. In this sub-report of PAREST Germany's aggregate emissions totals of the considered pollutants are presented in the reference scenario. [German] Im Forschungsvorhaben PAREST wurden Emissionsszenarien bis 2020 fuer Feinstaub (PM{sub 10} und PM{sub 2,5}) und die Aerosol-Vorlaeufersubstanzen SO{sub 2}, NO{sub x}, NH{sub 3} und NMVOC fuer Deutschland und Europa erstellt, Minderungsmassnahmen evaluiert und daraus die PM-Immissionsbelastung fuer Deutschland modelliert. In diesem Teilbericht zu PAREST werden die deutschlandweit aggregierten Emissionssummen der betrachteten Schadstoffe im Referenzszenario vorgestellt.

  16. Scenario analysis on alternative fuel/vehicle for China's future road transport: Life-cycle energy demand and GHG emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ou Xunmin, E-mail: oxm07@mails.tsinghua.edu.c [Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy (3E), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); China Automotive Energy Research Center (CAERC), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); School of Public Policy and Management (SPPM), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Zhang Xiliang, E-mail: zhang_xl@tsinghua.edu.c [Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy (3E), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); China Automotive Energy Research Center (CAERC), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Chang Shiyan [Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy (3E), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); China Automotive Energy Research Center (CAERC), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China)

    2010-08-15

    The rapid growth of vehicles has resulted in continuing growth in China's oil demand. This paper analyzes future trends of both direct and life cycle energy demand (ED) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China's road transport sector, and assesses the effectiveness of possible reduction measures by using alternative vehicles/fuels. A model is developed to derive a historical trend and to project future trends. The government is assumed to do nothing additional in the future to influence the long-term trends in the business as usual (BAU) scenario. Four specific scenarios are used to describe the future cases where different alternative fuel/vehicles are applied. The best case scenario is set to represent the most optimized case. Direct ED and GHG emissions would reach 734 million tonnes of oil equivalent and 2384 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050 in the BAU case, respectively, more than 5.6 times of 2007 levels. Compared with the BAU case, the relative reductions achieved in the best case would be 15.8% and 27.6% for life cycle ED and GHG emissions, respectively. It is suggested for future policy implementation to support sustainable biofuel and high efficient electric-vehicles, and the deployment of coal-based fuels accompanied with low-carbon technology.

  17. Scenario analysis on alternative fuel/vehicle for China's future road transport. Life-cycle energy demand and GHG emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ou, Xunmin [Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy (3E), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); China Automotive Energy Research Center (CAERC), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); School of Public Policy and Management (SPPM), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Zhang, Xiliang; Chang, Shiyan [Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy (3E), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); China Automotive Energy Research Center (CAERC), Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China)

    2010-08-15

    The rapid growth of vehicles has resulted in continuing growth in China's oil demand. This paper analyzes future trends of both direct and life cycle energy demand (ED) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China's road transport sector, and assesses the effectiveness of possible reduction measures by using alternative vehicles/fuels. A model is developed to derive a historical trend and to project future trends. The government is assumed to do nothing additional in the future to influence the long-term trends in the business as usual (BAU) scenario. Four specific scenarios are used to describe the future cases where different alternative fuel/vehicles are applied. The best case scenario is set to represent the most optimized case. Direct ED and GHG emissions would reach 734 million tonnes of oil equivalent and 2384 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050 in the BAU case, respectively, more than 5.6 times of 2007 levels. Compared with the BAU case, the relative reductions achieved in the best case would be 15.8% and 27.6% for life cycle ED and GHG emissions, respectively. It is suggested for future policy implementation to support sustainable biofuel and high efficient electric-vehicles, and the deployment of coal-based fuels accompanied with low-carbon technology. (author)

  18. Characterizing the emission implications of future natural gas production and use in the U.S. and Rocky Mountain region: A scenario-based energy system modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLeod, Jeffrey

    The recent increase in U.S. natural gas production made possible through advancements in extraction techniques including hydraulic fracturing has transformed the U.S. energy supply landscape while raising questions regarding the balance of environmental impacts associated with natural gas production and use. Impact areas at issue include emissions of methane and criteria pollutants from natural gas production, alongside changes in emissions from increased use of natural gas in place of coal for electricity generation. In the Rocky Mountain region, these impact areas have been subject to additional scrutiny due to the high level of regional oil and gas production activity and concerns over its links to air quality. Here, the MARKAL (MArket ALlocation) least-cost energy system optimization model in conjunction with the EPA-MARKAL nine-region database has been used to characterize future regional and national emissions of CO 2, CH4, VOC, and NOx attributed to natural gas production and use in several sectors of the economy. The analysis is informed by comparing and contrasting a base case, business-as-usual scenario with scenarios featuring variations in future natural gas supply characteristics, constraints affecting the electricity generation mix, carbon emission reduction strategies and increased demand for natural gas in the transportation sector. Emission trends and their associated sensitivities are identified and contrasted between the Rocky Mountain region and the U.S. as a whole. The modeling results of this study illustrate the resilience of the short term greenhouse gas emission benefits associated with fuel switching from coal to gas in the electric sector, but also call attention to the long term implications of increasing natural gas production and use for emissions of methane and VOCs, especially in the Rocky Mountain region. This analysis can help to inform the broader discussion of the potential environmental impacts of future natural gas production

  19. Dynamics of combined forest damage risks for 21st century (SRES A1B, B1)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panferov, Oleg; Merklein, Johannes; Sogachev, Andrey; Junghans, Udo; Ahrends, Bernd

    2010-05-01

    The ongoing climate change can result in increasing frequency of weather extremes (Leckebusch et al., 2008) which in turn can produce wide area forest damage (windthrows, droughts, insect attacks) within forest ecosystems in Europe. The probability and extent of damage, depend not only on a strength of a driving force itself but especially on combinations of effecting agents and their interactions with forest ecosystem structure and soil properties. The combined effect of several factors which are not the extremes themselves can lead to the biotic and/or abiotic damage so that the combination becomes an extreme event. As soon as a damage event occurs, the forest structure is changed. The changes in forest structure in their turn strengthen or inhibits the influence of different climatic factors thus increase or decrease the probability of the next damage event creating positive or negative feedbacks. To assess the roles of separate meteorological factors and their combinations in forest damage under present and future climatic conditions the coupled model was created in University of Goettingen, as a part of a Decision Support System (Jansen et al, 2008, Panferov et al., 2009). The model combines the 3D ABL Model SCADIS (Panferov and Sogachev, 2008) with modified soil hydrology model BROOK 90 (Federer, 2003, Ahrends et al. 2009) and the model of climate dependent biotic damage. The projected future developments of forest damage events in 21st Century were carried out under conditions of SRES scenarios A1B and B1; the present conditions were evaluated using the measured data of German Weather Service. Climate scenario data of coupled ECHAM5-MPIOM were downscaled by the regional climate model Climate Local Model (CLM) to the spatial resolution of 0.2° x 0.2° and temporal resolution of 24 hours. Using these data as input the small-scale coupled process based modeling was then carried out for example region of Solling, Germany calculating the water and energy balance

  20. Electrification and Decarbonization: Exploring U.S. Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Scenarios with Widespread Electrification and Power Sector Decarbonization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steinberg, Daniel [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bielen, Dave [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Eichman, Josh [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Eurek, Kelly [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Logan, Jeff [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); McMillan, Colin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Parker, Andrew [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Vimmerstedt, Laura [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Wilson, Eric [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-07-19

    Electrification of end-use services in the transportation, buildings, and industrial sectors coupled with decarbonization of electricity generation has been identified as one of the key pathways to achieving a low-carbon future in the United States. By lowering the carbon intensity of the electricity generation and substituting electricity for higher-emissions fossil fuels in end-use sectors, significant reductions in carbon dioxide emissions can be achieved. This report describes a preliminary analysis that examines the potential impacts of widespread electrification on the U.S. energy sector. We develop a set of exploratory scenarios under which electrification is aggressively pursued across all end-use sectors and examine the impacts of achieving these electrification levels on electricity load patterns, total fossil energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions, and the evolution of the U.S. power system.

  1. Relevance of future snowfall level height in the Peruvian Andes for glacier loss in the 21st century under different emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schauwecker, Simone; Kronenberg, Marlene; Rohrer, Mario; Huggel, Christian; Endries, Jason; Montoya, Nilton; Neukom, Raphael; Perry, Baker; Salzmann, Nadine; Schwarb, Manfred; Suarez, Wilson

    2017-04-01

    In many regions of Peru, the competition for limited hydrological resources already represents a large risk for conflicts. In this context, and within the circumstances of climate change, there is a great interest in estimating the future loss of Peruvian glaciers. Solid precipitation on glaciers, which affects the shortwave radiation budget via its effects on albedo, in general reduces ablation. For that reason, the height of the upper level of the transition zone between liquid and solid precipitation (snowfall level height) is considered to play a critical role. This snowfall level height is linked to air temperature. The observed and projected warming of the atmosphere is therefore affecting the glaciers amongst others by changing the snowfall level height. Despite the potential significance of these changes for Peruvian glaciers, the relations between snowfall level heights, glacier extents and climate scenarios have been poorly investigated so far. In our study, we first analyse the snowfall level heights over the Peruvian Cordilleras. Second, we investigate the relationship between the present snowfall level heights and current glacier extents. As a third step, we derive projected changes of snowfall level heights from GCMs for the RCP2.6 and 8.5 emission scenarios and use them to roughly estimate the end of XXI century glaciation for the Peruvian Cordilleras. Our results indicate a large difference in future glacier extent between the high-emission (pessimistic) RCP8.5 and the low-emission (optimistic) RCP2.6. If global emissions can be substantially reduced, a significant part of the glaciated area of Peru can be maintained. On the contrary, if mitigation is unsuccessful, most of the glacier mass in Peru will be lost during the 21st century. In both cases, but even more so for the high-emission scenario, adaptation will play a critical role and should focus on improvements in water resource management which is essential on a local to regional scale. Air

  2. Contrasting Impact of Future CO2 Emission Scenarios on the Extent of CaCO3 Mineral Undersaturation in the Humboldt Current System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco, A. C.; Gruber, N.; Frölicher, T. L.; Kropuenske Artman, L.

    2018-03-01

    The eastern boundary upwelling systems are among those regions that are most vulnerable to an ocean acidification-induced transition toward undersaturated conditions with respect to mineral CaCO3, but no assessment exists yet for the Humboldt Current System. Here we use a high-resolution (˜7.5 km) regional ocean model to investigate past and future changes in ocean pH and CaCO3 saturation state in this system. We find that within the next few decades, the nearshore waters off Peru are projected to become corrosive year round with regard to aragonite, the more soluble form of CaCO3. The volume of aragonite undersaturated water off Peru will continue to increase in the future irrespective of the amount of CO2 emitted to the atmosphere. In contrast, the development of the saturation state with regard to calcite, a less soluble form of carbonate, depends strongly on the scenario followed. By 2050, calcite undersaturation appears in the nearshore waters off Peru occasionally, but by 2090 in a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5), ˜60% of the water in the euphotic zone will become permanently calcite undersaturated. Most of this calcite undersaturation off Peru can likely be avoided if a low emission scenario (RCP2.6) consistent with the Paris Agreement is followed. The progression of ocean acidification off Chile follows a similar pattern, except that the saturation states are overall higher. But also here, calcite undersaturated waters will become common in the subsurface waters under the RCP8.5 scenario by the end of this century, while this can be avoided under the RCP2.6 scenario.

  3. Framework for the analysis of the low-carbon scenario 2020 to achieve the national carbon Emissions reduction target: Focused on educational facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koo, Choongwan; Kim, Hyunjoong; Hong, Taehoon

    2014-01-01

    Since the increase in greenhouse gas emissions has increased the global warming potential, an international agreement on carbon emissions reduction target (CERT) has been formulated in Kyoto Protocol (1997). This study aimed to develop a framework for the analysis of the low-carbon scenario 2020 to achieve the national CERT. To verify the feasibility of the proposed framework, educational facilities were used for a case study. This study was conducted in six steps: (i) selection of the target school; (ii) establishment of the reference model for the target school; (iii) energy consumption pattern analysis by target school; (iv) establishment of the energy retrofit model for the target school; (v) economic and environmental assessment through the life cycle cost and life cycle CO 2 analysis; and (vi) establishment of the low-carbon scenario in 2020 to achieve the national CERT. This study can help facility managers or policymakers establish the optimal retrofit strategy within the limited budget from a short-term perspective and the low-carbon scenario 2020 to achieve the national CERT from the long-term perspective. The proposed framework could be also applied to any other building type or country in the global environment

  4. Mesh climate change data of Japan ver. 2 for climate change impact assessments under IPCC SRES A1B and A2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okada, M.; Iizumi, T.; Nishimori, M.; Yokozawa, M.

    2009-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) in 2007 and stated that recent climate change and variation are induced by increases in the atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHG) concentration due to anthropogenic activities. The report includes the results of impact assessments on a wide range of sectors. These assessments have been conducted based on future climate projections, which refer to aspects of the future climate evaluated by Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs). The projection data used in the AR4 are archived under the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) promoted by the U.S. Department of Energy. We interpolated the projection data around Japan and constructed a dataset entitled the 'Mesh climate change data of Japan Ver. 2' for the climate change impact study. Nine projections performed by seven models under the A1B and A2 of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) were implemented for the dataset. They consist of mesh data with a size of 7.5 min in longitude and 5.0 min in latitude, i.e. approximately 10 X 10 km (45 sec in longitude and 30 sec in latitude, approximately 1 x 1 km, for one high-resolution model). The dataset includes five climatic elements, i.e. the daily mean, maximum, and minimum surface air temperatures, daily total precipitation, and daily accumulated shortwave radiation for three periods, 1981-2000, 2046-2065, and 2081-2100. This article describes the details concerning the construction and characteristics of the data

  5. Modeling state-level soil carbon emission factors under various scenarios for direct land use change associated with United States biofuel feedstock production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwon, Ho-Young; Mueller, Steffen; Dunn, Jennifer B.; Wander, Michelle M.

    2013-01-01

    Current estimates of life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of biofuels produced in the US can be improved by refining soil C emission factors (EF; C emissions per land area per year) for direct land use change associated with different biofuel feedstock scenarios. We developed a modeling framework to estimate these EFs at the state-level by utilizing remote sensing data, national statistics databases, and a surrogate model for CENTURY's soil organic C dynamics submodel (SCSOC). We estimated the forward change in soil C concentration within the 0–30 cm depth and computed the associated EFs for the 2011 to 2040 period for croplands, grasslands or pasture/hay, croplands/conservation reserve, and forests that were suited to produce any of four possible biofuel feedstock systems [corn (Zea Mays L)-corn, corn–corn with stover harvest, switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L), and miscanthus (Miscanthus × giganteus Greef et Deuter)]. Our results predict smaller losses or even modest gains in sequestration for corn based systems, particularly on existing croplands, than previous efforts and support assertions that production of perennial grasses will lead to negative emissions in most situations and that conversion of forest or established grasslands to biofuel production would likely produce net emissions. The proposed framework and use of the SCSOC provide transparency and relative simplicity that permit users to easily modify model inputs to inform biofuel feedstock production targets set forth by policy. -- Highlights: ► We model regionalized feedstock-specific United States soil C emission factors. ► We simulate soil C changes from direct land use change associated with biofuel feedstock production. ► Corn, corn-stover, and perennial grass biofuel feedstocks grown in croplands maintain soil C levels. ► Converting grasslands to bioenergy crops risks soil C loss. ► This modeling framework yields more refined soil C emissions than national-level emissions

  6. Assessing the Energy and Emissions Implications of Alternative Population Scenarios Using a State-Level Integrated Assessment Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    We use GCAM-USA to examine the sensitivity of energy demands and resulting pollutant emissions and health impacts to differing population projections. The population projections are based on future fertility, mortality, migration and education assumptions consistent with the five...

  7. Fairness and cost-effectiveness of CO2 emission reduction targets in the European Union member states. An analysis based on scenario studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kram, T.; Ybema, J.R.; Vos, D.

    1997-06-01

    The Member States of the European Union (EU) have agreed upon a common position in the international negotiations on the limitation of greenhouse gas emissions. The total commitment of the EU is the result of differentiated emission targets for the individual Member States. In this study the results of 4 recent scenario studies on CO2 emission reduction are used to assess the fairness and the cost-effectiveness of the differentiated targets. Here, fairness is measured by the average cost per capita in a country to reach the emission target. Cost-effectiveness is based on the marginal cost of emission reduction. It is noted that there are limitations in the comparability of the country results. Further, the coverage of the EU Member States is not complete in all 4 studies. Robust conclusions could thus not be drawn for all countries. Nonetheless, there are strong indications that the efforts to achieve the emission reduction targets are not evenly distributed. Based on the results the countries can be divided into four groups with different burdens to achieve reduction of CO2 emissions: (a) countries that will probably be faced with above average burdens: Sweden, Italy and the Netherlands; (b) countries that will presumably be faced with above average burdens but for which limited information is available: Austria and Denmark; (c) countries that will probably be faced with average burdens or for which the relative efforts are indistinct: Germany, Portugal, Belgium, Finland and Luxembourg; and (d) countries that will probably be faced with below average burdens: United Kingdom, France, Spain, Ireland and Greece. 1 fig., 12 tabs., 6 refs

  8. Forest carbon response to management scenarios intended to mitigate GHG emissions and reduce fire impacts in the US West Coast region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudiburg, T. W.; Law, B. E.; Thornton, P. E.; Luyssaert, S.

    2012-12-01

    US West coast forests are among the most carbon dense biomes in the world and the potential for biomass accumulation in mesic coastal forests is the highest recorded (Waring and Franklin 1979, Hudiburg et al. 2009). Greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies have recently expanded to include forest woody biomass as bioenergy, with the expectation that this will also reduce forest mortality. We examined forest carbon response and life cycle assessment (LCA) of net carbon emissions following varying combinations of bioenergy management scenarios in Pacific Northwest forests for the period from 2010-2100. We use the NCAR CLM4 model combined with a regional atmospheric forcing dataset and account for future environmental change using the IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Bioenergy management strategies include a repeated thinning harvest, a repeated clearcut harvest, and a single salvage harvest in areas with projected insect-related mortality. None of the bioenergy management scenarios reduce net emissions to the atmosphere compared to continued business-as-usual harvest (BAU) by the end of the 21st century. Forest regrowth and reduced fire emissions are not large enough to balance the wood removals from harvest. Moreover, the substitution of wood for fossil fuel energy and products is not large enough to offset the wood losses through decomposition and combustion. However, in some ecoregions (Blue Mountains and East Cascades), emissions from the thinning harvests begin to improve over BAU at the end of the century and could lead to net reductions in those ecoregions over a longer time period (> 100 years). For salvage logging, there is no change compared to BAU emissions by the end of the 21st century because the treatment area is minimal compared to the other treatments and only performed once. These results suggest that managing forests for carbon sequestration will need to include a variety of approaches accounting for forest baseline conditions and in some

  9. Sustainable Complex Triangular Cells for the Evaluation of CO2 Emissions by Individuals instead of Nations in a Scenario for 2030

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo Sthel

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The concept of sustainable complex triangular cells may be applied to an individual of any human society. This concept was introduced in two recent articles. A case study was proposed to show the applicability of this new concept to Indian populations without contact with civilization and with a low environmental impact. Here we propose to apply this concept to a recent study, which claims that the concept of “common but differentiated responsibilities” refers to the emissions of individuals instead of nations. The income distribution of a country was used to estimate how its fossil fuel CO2 emissions are distributed among its citizens and, from that a global CO2 distribution was constructed. We propose the extension of the concept of complex triangular cells where its area would be equivalent to the CO2 emission per individual. In addition, a new three-dimensional geometric model for the regular hexagonal structure is offered in which the sharing of natural resources (human cooperation is employed to reduce CO2 emissions in two scenarios by 2030.

  10. Evaluation of LLTR Series II tests A-1A and A-1B test results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shoopak, B.F.; Amos, J.C.; Norvell, T.J.

    1980-03-01

    The standard methodology, with minor modifications provides conservative yet realistic predictions of leaksite and other sodium system pressures in the LLTR Series II vessel and piping. The good agreement between predicted and measured pressures indicates that the TRANSWRAP/RELAP modeling developed from the Series I tests is applicable to larger scale units prototypical of the Clinch River steam generator design. Calculated sodium system pressures are sensitive to several modeling parameters including rupture disc modeling, acoustic velocity in the test vessel, and flow rate from the rupture tube. The acoustic velocity which produced best agreement with leaksite pressures was calculated based on the shroud diameter and shroud wall thickness. The corresponding rupture tube discharge coefficient was that of the standard design methodology developed from Series I testing. As found in Series I testing, the Series II data suggests that the leading edge of the flow in the relief line is two phase for a single, doubled-ended guillotine tube rupture. The steam generator shroud acts as if it is relatively transparent to the transmission of radial pressures to the vessel wall. Slightly lower sodium system maximum pressures measured during Test A-1b compared to Test A-1a are attributed to premature failure (failure at a lower pressure) of the rupture disc in contact with the sodium for test A-1b. The delay in failure of the second disc in Test A-1b, which was successfully modeled with TRANSWRAP, is attributed to the limited energy in the nitrogen injection

  11. Integrating Land Use and Socioeconomic Factors into Scenario-Based Travel Demand and Carbon Emission Impact Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urban sprawl continues since the last century, leading to a rapid increase in automobile ownership and vehicle travel demand, while resulting in more traffic congestion and automobile emissions. Land use, serving as a source of travel demand, can significantly impact travel behav...

  12. Energy and emission scenarios for China in the 21st century. Exploration of baseline development and mitigation options

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vuuren DP van; Fengqi Zhou; Vries HJM de; Kejun Jiang; Graveland C; Yun Li; Energy Research Institute,; MNV

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of the study reported here was to explore possible baseline developments and available options for mitigating emissions in China. The first part of the report deals with an analysis and overview of available data on historic energy production and consumption trends and current energy

  13. Scenario analysis of carbon emissions' anti-driving effect on Qingdao's energy structure adjustment with an optimization model, Part II: Energy system planning and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, C B; Huang, G H; Liu, Z P; Zhen, J L; Yin, J G

    2017-03-01

    In this study, an inexact multistage stochastic mixed-integer programming (IMSMP) method was developed for supporting regional-scale energy system planning (EPS) associated with multiple uncertainties presented as discrete intervals, probability distributions and their combinations. An IMSMP-based energy system planning (IMSMP-ESP) model was formulated for Qingdao to demonstrate its applicability. Solutions which can provide optimal patterns of energy resources generation, conversion, transmission, allocation and facility capacity expansion schemes have been obtained. The results can help local decision makers generate cost-effective energy system management schemes and gain a comprehensive tradeoff between economic objectives and environmental requirements. Moreover, taking the CO 2 emissions scenarios mentioned in Part I into consideration, the anti-driving effect of carbon emissions on energy structure adjustment was studied based on the developed model and scenario analysis. Several suggestions can be concluded from the results: (a) to ensure the smooth realization of low-carbon and sustainable development, appropriate price control and fiscal subsidy on high-cost energy resources should be considered by the decision-makers; (b) compared with coal, natural gas utilization should be strongly encouraged in order to insure that Qingdao could reach the carbon discharges peak value in 2020; (c) to guarantee Qingdao's power supply security in the future, the construction of new power plants should be emphasised instead of enhancing the transmission capacity of grid infrastructure. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Energy scenarios and greenhouse effect gases emissions model for Mexico; Modelo de escenarios energeticos y de emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero para Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sheinbaum Pardo, Claudia; Rodriguez Viqueira, Luis [Instituto de Ingenieria de la UNAM, Mexico, D. F. (Mexico)

    1998-12-31

    This paper presents the bases for the Model of Energy and Greenhouse Emission Scenarios (MEEEM) developed by the Instituto de Ingenieria de la UNAM (Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico`s Engineering Institute). This model was built with the objective of analyzing the different technological options for the mitigation of the greenhouse gases effect on Mexico. The MEEEM is a model for the end uses that simulate in a simple way the energy demand, transformation and supply and calculates the differential leveled costs among a basic scenario and several mitigation scenarios of the greenhouse emissions. The article also presents some of the results in evaluating three technologies of renewable energy sources. Although the model is perfectible, its development shows its usefulness in this type of models in the decision taking for the energy and environmental planning of the country. [Espanol] Este articulo presenta las bases del Modelo de Escenarios Energeticos y de Emisiones de Gases de Efecto Invernadero para Mexico (MEEEM), desarrollado por el Instituto de Ingenieria de la Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (UNAM). Este modelo fue construido con el objetivo de analizar las diversas opciones tecnologicas de mitigacion de gases de efecto invernadero para Mexico. El MEEEM es un modelo de usos finales que simula de una manera sencilla, la demanda, transformacion y oferta de la energia y calcula la diferencia de costos nivelados entre un escenario base y diversos escenarios de mitigacion de emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. El articulo presenta tambien algunos resultados obtenidos al evaluar tres tecnologias de fuentes renovables de energia. Aun cuando el modelo es perfectible, su desarrollo demuestra la utilidad de este tipo de modelos en la toma de decisiones para planeacion energetica y ambiental del pais.

  15. The impacts of future climate and carbon dioxide changes on the average and variability of US maize yields under two emission scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Urban, Daniel W; Lobell, David B; Sheffield, Justin

    2015-01-01

    The United States is the largest producer of maize in the world, a crop for which demand continues to rise rapidly. Past studies have projected that climate change will negatively impact mean maize yields in this region, while at the same time increasing yield variability. However, some have questioned the accuracy of these projections because they are often based on indirect measures of soil moisture, have failed to explicitly capture the potential interactions between temperature and soil moisture availability, and often omit the beneficial effects of elevated carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) on transpiration efficiency. Here we use a new detailed dataset on field-level yields in Iowa, Indiana, and Illinois, along with fine-resolution daily weather data and moisture reconstructions, to evaluate the combined effects of moisture and heat on maize yields in the region. Projected climate change scenarios over this region from a suite of CMIP5 models are then used to assess future impacts and the differences between two contrasting emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). We show that (i) statistical models which explicitly account for interactions between heat and moisture, which have not been represented in previous empirical models, lead to significant model improvement and significantly higher projected yield variability under warming and drying trends than when accounting for each factor independently; (ii) inclusion of the benefits of elevated CO 2 significantly reduces impacts, particularly for yield variability; and (iii) net damages from climate change and CO 2 become larger for the higher emission scenario in the latter half of the 21st century, and significantly so by the end of century. (paper)

  16. Energy scenarios and greenhouse effect gases emissions model for Mexico; Modelo de escenarios energeticos y de emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero para Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sheinbaum Pardo, Claudia; Rodriguez Viqueira, Luis [Instituto de Ingenieria de la UNAM, Mexico, D. F. (Mexico)

    1999-12-31

    This paper presents the bases for the Model of Energy and Greenhouse Emission Scenarios (MEEEM) developed by the Instituto de Ingenieria de la UNAM (Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico`s Engineering Institute). This model was built with the objective of analyzing the different technological options for the mitigation of the greenhouse gases effect on Mexico. The MEEEM is a model for the end uses that simulate in a simple way the energy demand, transformation and supply and calculates the differential leveled costs among a basic scenario and several mitigation scenarios of the greenhouse emissions. The article also presents some of the results in evaluating three technologies of renewable energy sources. Although the model is perfectible, its development shows its usefulness in this type of models in the decision taking for the energy and environmental planning of the country. [Espanol] Este articulo presenta las bases del Modelo de Escenarios Energeticos y de Emisiones de Gases de Efecto Invernadero para Mexico (MEEEM), desarrollado por el Instituto de Ingenieria de la Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (UNAM). Este modelo fue construido con el objetivo de analizar las diversas opciones tecnologicas de mitigacion de gases de efecto invernadero para Mexico. El MEEEM es un modelo de usos finales que simula de una manera sencilla, la demanda, transformacion y oferta de la energia y calcula la diferencia de costos nivelados entre un escenario base y diversos escenarios de mitigacion de emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. El articulo presenta tambien algunos resultados obtenidos al evaluar tres tecnologias de fuentes renovables de energia. Aun cuando el modelo es perfectible, su desarrollo demuestra la utilidad de este tipo de modelos en la toma de decisiones para planeacion energetica y ambiental del pais.

  17. Estimation of daily traffic emissions in a South-European urban agglomeration during a workday. Evaluation of several 'what if' scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kassomenos, Pavlos; Karakitsios, Spyros; Papaloukas, Costas

    2006-01-01

    Detailed traffic data collected from seven major roads in the city of Athens, Greece are presented and analysed in this study. Vehicles are split into seven categories while vehicle speed is also recorded. Based on these data the emissions of five major pollutants (CO, Benzene, NO x , PM 10 and VOCs) were calculated with the aid of the COPERT methodology and, based on these results, an Artificial Neural Network was also developed. The results of the two methodologies were compared and it was found that the differences were very small. The ANN model seems to be a reliable alternative to calculate road traffic emissions in a busy road environment. The results reflect the spatial and temporal distribution of the concentrations of the pollutants examined. Alternative 'what if' scenarios of the fleet distribution were also applied by means of environmental policy. Since Athens experiences low air quality conditions the correct estimation of traffic emissions is crucial since they play a significant role in the design of an environmental abatement strategy. (author)

  18. Offshore Wind Energy Climate Projection Using UPSCALE Climate Data under the RCP8.5 Emission Scenario.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Markus Gross

    Full Text Available In previous work, the authors demonstrated how data from climate simulations can be utilized to estimate regional wind power densities. In particular, it was shown that the quality of wind power densities, estimated from the UPSCALE global dataset in offshore regions of Mexico, compared well with regional high resolution studies. Additionally, a link between surface temperature and moist air density in the estimates was presented. UPSCALE is an acronym for UK on PRACE (the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe-weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk. The UPSCALE experiment was performed in 2012 by NCAS (National Centre for Atmospheric Science-Climate, at the University of Reading and the UK Met Office Hadley Centre. The study included a 25.6-year, five-member ensemble simulation of the HadGEM3 global atmosphere, at 25km resolution for present climate conditions. The initial conditions for the ensemble runs were taken from consecutive days of a test configuration. In the present paper, the emphasis is placed on the single climate run for a potential future climate scenario in the UPSCALE experiment dataset, using the Representation Concentrations Pathways (RCP 8.5 climate change scenario. Firstly, some tests were performed to ensure that the results using only one instantiation of the current climate dataset are as robust as possible within the constraints of the available data. In order to achieve this, an artificial time series over a longer sampling period was created. Then, it was shown that these longer time series provided almost the same results than the short ones, thus leading to the argument that the short time series is sufficient to capture the climate. Finally, with the confidence that one instantiation is sufficient, the future climate dataset was analysed to provide, for the first time, a projection of future changes in wind power resources using the UPSCALE dataset. It is hoped that this, in

  19. Offshore Wind Energy Climate Projection Using UPSCALE Climate Data under the RCP8.5 Emission Scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gross, Markus; Magar, Vanesa

    2016-01-01

    In previous work, the authors demonstrated how data from climate simulations can be utilized to estimate regional wind power densities. In particular, it was shown that the quality of wind power densities, estimated from the UPSCALE global dataset in offshore regions of Mexico, compared well with regional high resolution studies. Additionally, a link between surface temperature and moist air density in the estimates was presented. UPSCALE is an acronym for UK on PRACE (the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe)-weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk. The UPSCALE experiment was performed in 2012 by NCAS (National Centre for Atmospheric Science)-Climate, at the University of Reading and the UK Met Office Hadley Centre. The study included a 25.6-year, five-member ensemble simulation of the HadGEM3 global atmosphere, at 25km resolution for present climate conditions. The initial conditions for the ensemble runs were taken from consecutive days of a test configuration. In the present paper, the emphasis is placed on the single climate run for a potential future climate scenario in the UPSCALE experiment dataset, using the Representation Concentrations Pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario. Firstly, some tests were performed to ensure that the results using only one instantiation of the current climate dataset are as robust as possible within the constraints of the available data. In order to achieve this, an artificial time series over a longer sampling period was created. Then, it was shown that these longer time series provided almost the same results than the short ones, thus leading to the argument that the short time series is sufficient to capture the climate. Finally, with the confidence that one instantiation is sufficient, the future climate dataset was analysed to provide, for the first time, a projection of future changes in wind power resources using the UPSCALE dataset. It is hoped that this, in turn, will provide

  20. Offshore Wind Energy Climate Projection Using UPSCALE Climate Data under the RCP8.5 Emission Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gross, Markus; Magar, Vanesa

    2016-01-01

    In previous work, the authors demonstrated how data from climate simulations can be utilized to estimate regional wind power densities. In particular, it was shown that the quality of wind power densities, estimated from the UPSCALE global dataset in offshore regions of Mexico, compared well with regional high resolution studies. Additionally, a link between surface temperature and moist air density in the estimates was presented. UPSCALE is an acronym for UK on PRACE (the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe)—weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk. The UPSCALE experiment was performed in 2012 by NCAS (National Centre for Atmospheric Science)-Climate, at the University of Reading and the UK Met Office Hadley Centre. The study included a 25.6-year, five-member ensemble simulation of the HadGEM3 global atmosphere, at 25km resolution for present climate conditions. The initial conditions for the ensemble runs were taken from consecutive days of a test configuration. In the present paper, the emphasis is placed on the single climate run for a potential future climate scenario in the UPSCALE experiment dataset, using the Representation Concentrations Pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario. Firstly, some tests were performed to ensure that the results using only one instantiation of the current climate dataset are as robust as possible within the constraints of the available data. In order to achieve this, an artificial time series over a longer sampling period was created. Then, it was shown that these longer time series provided almost the same results than the short ones, thus leading to the argument that the short time series is sufficient to capture the climate. Finally, with the confidence that one instantiation is sufficient, the future climate dataset was analysed to provide, for the first time, a projection of future changes in wind power resources using the UPSCALE dataset. It is hoped that this, in turn, will

  1. An efficient scenario-based and fuzzy self-adaptive learning particle swarm optimization approach for dynamic economic emission dispatch considering load and wind power uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bahmani-Firouzi, Bahman; Farjah, Ebrahim; Azizipanah-Abarghooee, Rasoul

    2013-01-01

    Renewable energy resources such as wind power plants are playing an ever-increasing role in power generation. This paper extends the dynamic economic emission dispatch problem by incorporating wind power plant. This problem is a multi-objective optimization approach in which total electrical power generation costs and combustion emissions are simultaneously minimized over a short-term time span. A stochastic approach based on scenarios is suggested to model the uncertainty associated with hourly load and wind power forecasts. A roulette wheel technique on the basis of probability distribution functions of load and wind power is implemented to generate scenarios. As a result, the stochastic nature of the suggested problem is emancipated by decomposing it into a set of equivalent deterministic problem. An improved multi-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm is applied to obtain the best expected solutions for the proposed stochastic programming framework. To enhance the overall performance and effectiveness of the particle swarm optimization, a fuzzy adaptive technique, θ-search and self-adaptive learning strategy for velocity updating are used to tune the inertia weight factor and to escape from local optima, respectively. The suggested algorithm goes through the search space in the polar coordinates instead of the Cartesian one; whereby the feasible space is more compact. In order to evaluate the efficiency and feasibility of the suggested framework, it is applied to two test systems with small and large scale characteristics. - Highlights: ► Formulates multi-objective DEED problem under a stochastic programming framework. ► Considers uncertainties related to forecasted values of load demand and wind power. ► Proposes an interactive fuzzy satisfying method based on the novel FSALPSO. ► Presents a new self-adaptive learning strategy to improve original PSO algorithm

  2. Spatio-Temporal Variation and Futuristic Emission Scenario of Ambient Nitrogen Dioxide over an Urban Area of Eastern India Using GIS and Coupled AERMOD-WRF Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sharadia Dey

    Full Text Available The present study focuses on the spatio-temporal variation of nitrogen dioxide (NO2 during June 2013 to May 2015 and its futuristic emission scenario over an urban area (Durgapur of eastern India. The concentration of ambient NO2 shows seasonal as well as site specific characteristics. The site with high vehicular density (Muchipara shows highest NO2 concentration followed by industrial site (DVC- DTPS Colony and the residential site (B Zone, respectively. The seasonal variation of ambient NO2 over the study area is portrayed by means of Geographical Information System based Digital Elevation Model. Out of the total urban area under consideration (114.982 km2, the concentration of NO2 exceeded the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS permissible limit over an area of 5.000 km2, 0.786 km2 and 0.653 km2 in post monsoon, winter and pre monsoon, respectively. Wind rose diagrams, correlation and regression analyses show that meteorology plays a crucial role in dilution and dispersion of NO2 near the earth's surface. Principal component analysis identifies vehicular source as the major source of NO2 in all the seasons over the urban region. Coupled AMS/EPA Regulatory Model (AERMOD-Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model is used for predicting the concentration of NO2. Comparison of the observed and simulated data shows that the model overestimates the concentration of NO2 in all the seasons (except winter. The results show that coupled AERMOD-WRF model can overcome the unavailability of hourly surface as well as upper air meteorological data required for predicting the pollutant concentration, but improvement of emission inventory along with better understanding of the sinks and sources of ambient NO2 is essential for capturing the more realistic scenario.

  3. Energy, Pollutant Emissions and Other Negative Externality Savings from Curbing Individual Motorized Transportation (IMT: A Low Cost, Low Technology Scenario Analysis in Brazilian Urban Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ursula Maruyama

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available This article examines the inefficient use of resources in the Brazilian transportation system. The energy use growth and external cost generation in this essential economic sector are considerable, and the trend is towards an increasing problem in the coming years. The continued expansion of Brazilian cities and the increase in demand for mobility is a result of a substantial growth in the number of road transport users, as increased earnings enable lower income groups to acquire and use individual motorized means of transport. The aim of this paper is to estimate the potential gains from reducing individual motorized transport by the year 2020. This investigation concludes that in a conservationist scenario, by prioritizing low cost, low technology public policies—which include operation of Bus Rapid Transit systems, walking and cycling facilities and congestion charges, among others—it should be possible to save over USD 30 billion and USD 26 billion in external transportation and infrastructure costs, respectively, up to 2020. In addition, these public policies can save more than 35 million Tons of Oil Equivalents in energy consumption and avoid almost 4,000 thousand tons of local pollution emissions and 37,500 thousand tons of GHG emissions in the same period.

  4. Climate scenarios for California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, Daniel R.; Maurer, Ed; Dettinger, Mike; Tyree, Mary; Hayhoe, Katharine; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, Phil; Santer, Ben

    2006-01-01

    Possible future climate changes in California are investigated from a varied set of climate change model simulations. These simulations, conducted by three state-of-the-art global climate models, provide trajectories from three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. These scenarios and the resulting climate simulations are not “predictions,” but rather are a limited sample from among the many plausible pathways that may affect California’s climate. Future GHG concentrations are uncertain because they depend on future social, political, and technological pathways, and thus the IPCC has produced four “families” of emission scenarios. To explore some of these uncertainties, emissions scenarios A2 (a medium-high emissions) and B1 (low emissions) were selected from the current IPCC Fourth climate assessment, which provides several recent model simulations driven by A2 and B1 emissions. The global climate model simulations addressed here were from PCM1, the Parallel Climate Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) group, and CM2.1 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL).

  5. Towards greener data centres, 2012-2015. Trends in energy consumptions, renewable energy and CO2 emissions in various scenarios; Vergroenen datacenters 2012-2015. Ontwikkeling van energiegebruik, hiernieuwbare energie en CO2-emissies bij verschillende scenario's

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Afman, M.R.; Wielders, L.M.L.; De Buck, A.

    2012-03-15

    CE Delft has conducted a study on the potential for reducing the CO2 emissions of Dutch data centres. It was carried out for the development organisation Hivos, which is appealing to these centres to make an active effort to reduce their energy consumption and CO2 emissions. The study estimates the total power consumption of Dutch data centres at 1.6 TWh, equivalent to the consumption of 450,000 households. In a business-as-usual scenario consumption is predicted to rise substantially, to 2.1 TWh in 2015, equivalent to the consumption of 600,000 households and 2% of aggregate Dutch consumption. There is plenty of scope for the data centre industry to operate more sustainably and reduce its CO2 emissions: (1) a pivotal first step is to reduce energy consumption by improving energy efficiency. The City of Amsterdam now has energy efficiency standards in place for data centres, and if these were to hold for centres outside Amsterdam, too, a 20% reduction is energy consumption could be achieved, equivalent to the consumption of 85,000 households. Since many of the measures concerned are already cost-effective, numerous steps are already being taken in this direction; (2) the most effective way to improve the sustainability profile with respect to energy use is for data centres to invest in more renewable energy capacity, either themselves or in collaboration with other parties, passing on additional costs to customers. This will not only lead to a real decline in CO2 emissions, but also send out a clear signal. Simply purchasing 'green power' on the market, while being a far cheaper option, does not lead to cuts in carbon emissions. There is less green power available with an environmental 'Milieukeur' certificate and besides helping make consumers more environmentally aware it can also have an indirect political effect. A quite different option that does lead to carbon cuts is to offset emissions by funding renewable energy projects, in the

  6. South Africa's greenhouse gas emissions under business-as-usual: The technical basis of 'Growth without Constraints' in the Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Winkler, Harald, E-mail: Harald.WInkler@uct.ac.za [University of Cape Town, Energy Research Centre, Upper Campus, Rondebosch, W Cape 7701 (South Africa); Hughes, Alison; Marquard, Andrew [University of Cape Town, Energy Research Centre, Upper Campus, Rondebosch, W Cape 7701 (South Africa); Haw, Mary [PJCarew Consulting, 103 Hout Street, Cape Town 8001 (South Africa); Merven, Bruno [University of Cape Town, Energy Research Centre, Upper Campus, Rondebosch, W Cape 7701 (South Africa)

    2011-10-15

    This article describes the methodology for projecting business-as-usual GHG trajectory developed in technical work for South Africa's Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios (LTMSs), in particular the 'Growth without Constraints' (GWCs) scenario. Technically rigorous projections are important as developing countries define their commitment to act on mitigation relative to business-as-usual (BAU). The key drivers for the GWC scenario include GDP (both growth rate and composition), population, discount rate and technological change. GDP emerged as an important driver in the research for LTMS and further analysis. If South Africa's economy grows without constraints over the next few decades, GHG emissions will continue to escalate, multiplying more than four-fold by mid-century. There is little gain in energy efficiency, and emissions continue to be dominated by energy use and supply, the latter remaining coal-based in GWC. We analyse the projections (not predictions) in relation to various measures. The LTMS GWC scenario is compared to other projections, nationally and internationally. A broadly comparable projection is being used at national level, for electricity planning. When compared to projections from international models, we find that the assumptions about GDP growth rates are a key factor, and suggest that comparisons of global data-sets against national analyses is important. - Highlights: > Specifies business-as-usual GHG trajectory for South Africa's Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios. > Provides details on methodology, drivers of emissions and key parameters. > In a scenario of Growth without Constraints, emissions would quadruple by 2050. > Analysis of resulting emission projection, not a prediction. > Compares projections from other national and international models.

  7. EVALUATION OF SCENARIOS OF AIR POLLUTANTS EMISSIONS BY THE AIRPORT EXPANSION AND ASSOCIATED INFRASTRUCTURE - CASE STUDY OF THE EXTENSION OF VIRACOPOS AIRPORT AT CAMPINAS, SÃO PAULO, BRAZIL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucia H.G. Coelho

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The development of the airport segment faces environmental externalities especially related to the increase in emissions of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs from combustion of fossil fuels by the aircraft engine, by the machinery for the maintenance of the planes and also by the vehicles used for passengers connections (private cars, taxicabs or public transportation system. In this scope, the current work presents the case study of the expansion of the Viracopos International Airport at Campinas – São Paulo, Brazil. To evaluate that, the methodology of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC was implemented to estimate the emissions of GHGs by aircraft for the years 2008 (before expansion, 2012 (current picture and 2018 (future scenario observing the changes in demand for passengers and cargo transportation. To evaluate the emissions from the vehicles it was used the AIMSUN microsimulation software to estimate emissions in the years 2012 and to simulate sensitivity scenarios for the year 2018. It was found that the inventory of CO2 emissions for both types of transports considered for the Viracopos airport showed similar orders of magnitude, what can be inferred about the equivalent contribution of these two modes on emissions of GHGs for the study area. These results may serve as a basis for establishing emission management plans of air pollutants by the competent organizations and to propose more targeted and effective measures to reduce the GHG emissions by these sources.

  8. Effects of high energy prices on scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions. Final report; Energiepreise und Klimaschutz. Wirkung hoher Energietraegerpreise auf die CO{sub 2}-Emissionsminderung bis 2030. Abschlussbericht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matthes, Felix Christian; Graichen, Verena; Harthan, Ralph O.; Repenning, Julia [Oeko-Institut, Berlin (Germany); Horn, Manfred [DIW Berlin (Germany); Krey, Volker; Markewitz, Peter; Martinsen, Dag [Forschungszentrum Juelich (Germany). Programmgruppe STE

    2008-05-15

    Against the background of high increases in the prices of the primary energy carriers crude oil, natural gas and hard coal, which are traded on international markets, three scenarios of the price development of the most important energy carriers are developed. Using energy price assumptions, a scenario analysis is undertaken with regard to the development of CO{sub 2} emissions in Germany as a whole as well as in terms of the different energy sectors. The emission scenarios are analysed with respect to the electricity industry in Germany using both IKARUS, the energy system model geared towards macroeconomic optimisation, and ELIAS, the sector model based on microeconomic considerations. The model analyses are supplemented by an overview of literature with regard to similar model analyses. (orig.)

  9. Cocoa Intensification Scenarios and Their Predicted Impact on CO2 Emissions, Biodiversity Conservation, and Rural Livelihoods in the Guinea Rain Forest of West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gockowski, Jim; Sonwa, Denis

    2011-08-01

    The Guinean rain forest (GRF) of West Africa, identified over 20 years ago as a global biodiversity hotspot, had reduced to 113,000 km2 at the start of the new millennium which was 18% of its original area. The principal driver of this environmental change has been the expansion of extensive smallholder agriculture. From 1988 to 2007, the area harvested in the GRF by smallholders of cocoa, cassava, and oil palm increased by 68,000 km2. Field results suggest a high potential for significantly increasing crop yields through increased application of seed-fertilizer technologies. Analyzing land-use change scenarios, it was estimated that had intensified cocoa technology, already developed in the 1960s, been pursued in Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria and Cameroon that over 21,000 km2 of deforestation and forest degradation could have been avoided along with the emission of nearly 1.4 billion t of CO2. Addressing the low productivity of agriculture in the GRF should be one of the principal objectives of REDD climate mitigation programs.

  10. Evaluation of group A1B erythrocytes converted to type as group O: studies of markers of function and compatibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Hong-Wei; Zhuo, Hai-Long; Zhang, Xue; Ji, Shou-Ping; Tan, Ying-Xia; Li, Su-Bo; Jia, Yan-Jun; Xu, Hua; Wu, Qing-Fa; Yun, Zhi-Min; Luo, Qun; Gong, Feng

    2016-01-01

    Background Enzymatic conversion of blood group A1B red blood cells (RBC) to group O RBC (ECO) was achieved by combined treatment with α-galactosidase and α-N-acetylgalactosaminidase. The aim of this study was to evaluate the function and safety of these A1B-ECO RBC in vitro. Materials and methods A 20% packed volume of A1B RBC was treated with enzymes in 250 mM glycine buffer, pH 6.8. The efficiency of the conversion of A and B antigen was evaluated by traditional typing in test tubes, gel column agglutination technology and fluorescence-activated cell sorting (FACS) analysis. The physiological and metabolic parameters of native and ECO RBC were compared, including osmotic fragility, erythrocyte deformation index, levels of 2,3-diphosphoglycerate, ATP, methaemoglobin, free Na+, and free K+. The morphology of native and ECO RBC was observed by scanning electron microscopy. Residual α-galactosidase or α-N-acetylgalactosaminidase in A1B-ECO RBC was detected by double-antibody sandwich ELISA method. Manual cross-matching was applied to ensure blood compatibility. Results The RBC agglutination tests and FACS results showed that A1B RBC were efficiently converted to O RBC. Functional analysis suggested that the conversion process had little impact on the physiological and metabolic parameters of the RBC. The residual amounts of either α-galactosidase or α-N-acetylgalactosaminidase in the A1B-ECO RBC were less than 10 ng/mL of packed RBC. About 18% of group B and 55% of group O sera reacted with the A1B-ECO RBC in a sensitive gel column cross-matching test. Discussion The conversion process does not appear to affect the morphological, physiological or metabolic parameters of A1B-ECO RBC. However, the A1B-ECO RBC still reacted with some antigens. More research on group O and B sera, which may partly reflect the complexity of group A1 the safety of A1B-ECO RBC is necessary before the application of these RBC in clinical transfusion. PMID:26509826

  11. Strengthening of the hydrological cycle in future scenarios: atmospheric energy and water balance perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Alessandri

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Future climate scenarios experiencing global warming are expected to strengthen the hydrological cycle during the 21st century (21C. We analyze the strengthening of the global-scale increase in precipitation from the perspective of changes in whole atmospheric water and energy balances. By combining energy and water equations for the whole atmosphere, we obtain constraints for the changes in surface fluxes and partitioning at the surface between sensible and latent components. We investigate the differences in the strengthening of the hydrological cycle in two centennial simulations performed with an Earth system model forced with specified atmospheric concentration pathways. Alongside the Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES A1B, which is a medium-high non-mitigation scenario, we consider a new aggressive-mitigation scenario (E1 with reduced fossil fuel use for energy production aimed at stabilizing global warming below 2 K.

    Our results show that the mitigation scenario effectively constrains the global warming with a stabilization below 2 K with respect to the 1950–2000 historical period. On the other hand, the E1 precipitation does not follow the temperature field toward a stabilization path but continues to increase over the mitigation period. Quite unexpectedly, the mitigation scenario is shown to strengthen the hydrological cycle even more than SRES A1B till around 2070. We show that this is mostly a consequence of the larger increase in the negative radiative imbalance of atmosphere in E1 compared to A1B. This appears to be primarily related to decreased sulfate aerosol concentration in E1, which considerably reduces atmospheric absorption of solar radiation compared to A1B.

    The last decades of the 21C show a marked increase in global precipitation in A1B compared to E1, despite the fact that the two scenarios display almost the same overall increase of radiative imbalance with respect to the 20th century. Our

  12. Scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

    2011-03-01

    In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

  13. Scenario? Guilty!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyng, Morten

    1992-01-01

    Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts...... to warrant a response. I should probably confess that I searched my latest paper for the word "scenario" and found eight occurrences, none of which fell in the categories described by Campbell....

  14. Scenarios, targets, gaps, and costs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edmonds, James A.; Joos, Fortunat; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Richels, Richard G.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

    2005-03-30

    This paper explores the connection between human activities and the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. t explores the implication of the wide range of emissions scenarios developed by the IPCC in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and concludes that a robust finding is that major changes will be required in the global energy system if the concentration of carbon dioxide is eventually to be stabilized.

  15. Italian energy scenarios comparative evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Contaldi, Mario

    2005-01-01

    This paper reviews some representative scenarios of the evolution of the Italian primary energy consumption, updated recently. After an overview of the main macroeconomics assumptions the scenario results are cross checked at sectorial level, with a brief discussion of the underlining data and energy intensity trends. The emissions of CO 2 , SO 2 and NO x resulting from the considered scenarios are also reported and discussed [it

  16. Report on a survey in fiscal 1999. Survey on electric power systems for reducing CO2 emission (an approach to scenario analyses); 1999 nendo CO{sub 2} sakugen no tame no denryoku system ni kansuru chosa hokokusho. Scenario kaiseki no approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-03-01

    The purpose of this survey is to extract by using scenario analyses the unreliable factors having great influence on change in the Japanese power supply configurations, and verify how the unreliability of these factors would affect the future structures and what the resultant ratio of the power mixes would be in the future. The survey is also intended to verify, through a series of work of calculating how much CO2 emission quantity would be changed in the stage of the year 2012 in each power supply configuration, whether or not the approach by using the scenario analyses will provide information sufficiently reasonable to judge policies to realize reduction in CO2 emission around the electric power business. Although including many hypotheses and vagueness, the trial calculation subjected to each scenario prepared presently suggested that it is not possible to accomplish the target of reducing 9% from the 1990 emission level only by the single efforts inside Japan. This result shows the same contents and directionality that are shown by the results of a large number of surveys. However, the result has created a common recognition among the participants that {sup t}here is a possibility that some kind of effective countermeasures could be discovered{sup .} (NEDO)

  17. 26 CFR 1.404(a)-5 - Pension and annuity plans; limitations under section 404(a)(1)(B).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 5 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Pension and annuity plans; limitations under... OF THE TREASURY (CONTINUED) INCOME TAX (CONTINUED) INCOME TAXES Pension, Profit-Sharing, Stock Bonus Plans, Etc. § 1.404(a)-5 Pension and annuity plans; limitations under section 404(a)(1)(B). (a) Subject...

  18. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

    2016-02-01

    This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

  19. A national assessment of the effect of intensive agro-land use practices on nonpoint source pollution using emission scenarios and geo-spatial data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuo, Dong; Liu, Liming; Yu, Huirong; Yuan, Chengcheng

    2018-01-01

    China's intensive agriculture has led to a broad range of adverse impacts upon ecosystems and thereby caused environmental quality degradation. One of the fundamental problems that face land managers when dealing with agricultural nonpoint source (NPS) pollution is to quantitatively assess the NPS pollution loads from different sources at a national scale. In this study, export scenarios and geo-spatial data were used to calculate the agricultural NPS pollution loads of nutrient, pesticide, plastic film residue, and crop straw burning in China. The results provided the comprehensive and baseline knowledge of agricultural NPS pollution from China's arable farming system in 2014. First, the nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) emission loads to water environment were estimated to be 1.44 Tg N and 0.06 Tg P, respectively. East and south China showed the highest load intensities of nutrient release to aquatic system. Second, the amount of pesticide loss to water of seven pesticides that are widely used in China was estimated to be 30.04 tons (active ingredient (ai)). Acetochlor was the major source of pesticide loss to water, contributing 77.65% to the total loss. The environmental impacts of pesticide usage in east and south China were higher than other parts. Third, 19.75% of the plastic film application resided in arable soils. It contributed a lot to soil phthalate ester (PAE) contamination. Fourth, 14.11% of straw produce were burnt in situ, most occurring in May to July (post-winter wheat harvest) in North China Plain and October to November (post-rice harvest days) in southeast China. All the above agricultural NPS pollution loadings were unevenly distributed across China. The spatial correlations between pollution loads at land unit scale were also estimated. Rising labor cost in rural China might be a possible explanation for the general positive correlations of the NPS pollution loads. It also indicated a co-occurred higher NPS pollution loads and a higher

  20. Current scenario

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Current scenario. India , like other parts of the world, is also facing the problem of increase in the incidence of drug resistance in tuberculosis. Multi-drug resistance (MDR, resistance to RIF & INH) and extensively drug resistant strains (X-DR, resistance to RIF, INH, FQs ...

  1. Economic modelling of the capture-transport-sink scenario of industrial CO2 emissions: The Estonian-Latvian cross-border case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shogenova, A.; Shogenov, K.; Pomeranceva, R.; Nulle, I.; Neele, F.; Hendriks, C.

    2011-01-01

    Industrial CO2 emissions and opportunities for CO2 geological storage in the Baltic Region were studied within the EU GeoCapacity project supported by the European Union Framework Programme 6. Estonia produces the largest amounts of CO2 emissions in the region, due to the combustion of Estonian oil

  2. Potential reduction of CO2 emissions and low carbon scenario for the Brazilian industrial sector for 2030; Potencial de reducao de emissoes de Co2 e cenario de baixo carbono para o setor industrial brasileiro para 2030

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Henriques Junior, Mauricio F. [Instituto Nacional de Tecnologia (INT), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)], email: mauricio.henriques@int.gov.br; Schaeffer, Roberto [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-Graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE/UFRJ), RJ (Brazil)], email: roberto@ppe.ufrj.br

    2010-07-01

    This study discusses the potential for reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from energy use by the Brazilian industrial sector in a low-carbon scenario over a horizon until 2030. It evaluates the main mitigation measures, the quantities of this gas avoided and the respective abatement costs. In relation to a benchmark scenario projected for 2030, the reduction of CO2 emissions estimated here can reach 40% by adopting energy efficiency measures, materials recycling, cogeneration, shifting from fossil fuels to renewable or less carbon content sources, and eliminating the use of biomass from deforestation. The set of measures studied here would bring cumulative emissions reductions of nearly 1.5 billion tCO2 over a period of 20 years (2010-2030). This would require huge investments, but the majority of them would have significant economic return and negative abatement costs. However, in the cases there would be low economic attractiveness and higher abatement costs, thus requiring more effective incentives and a collective effort, from both the public and private sectors. (author)

  3. Supplement to the methodology for risk evaluation: Proposal for the formats of names, parameters, variables, units and symbols to be used in emission scenario documents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Poel P van der; CSR

    2001-01-01

    De EU werkgroep voor het verzamelen, beoordelen en ontwikkelen van emissie scenario's voor biociden (EUBEES) doet in dit rapport een voorstel om tot een uniforme manier van naamgeving en het gebruik van symbolen te komen, die aansluit bij de lijsten met symbolen van EUSES en USES (Appendix

  4. Supplement to the methodology for risk evaluation: Emission Scenario Document for Product Type 2: Private and public health area disinfectants and other biocidal products (sanitary and medical sector)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Poel P van der; CSR

    2001-01-01

    Dit rapport is een aangepaste versie van RIVM rapport 601450 002. Herziening vond plaats in het kader van het project "Verzameling, herziening en ontwikkeling van biocide emissie scenario's voor het milieu" (werkgroep EUBEES). Het rapport bevat een beschrijving van de behandelde

  5. From "farm to fork" strawberry system: current realities and potential innovative scenarios from life cycle assessment of non-renewable energy use and green house gas emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girgenti, Vincenzo; Peano, Cristiana; Baudino, Claudio; Tecco, Nadia

    2014-03-01

    In this study, we analysed the environmental profile of the strawberry industry in Northern Italy. The analysis was conducted using two scenarios as reference systems: strawberry crops grown in unheated plastic tunnels using currently existing cultivation techniques, post-harvest management practices and consumption patterns (scenario 1) and the same strawberry cultivation chain in which some of the materials used were replaced with bio-based materials (scenario 2). In numerous studies, biodegradable polymers have been shown to be environmentally friendly, thus potentially reducing environmental impacts. These materials can be recycled into carbon dioxide and water through composting. Many materials, such as Mater-BI® and PLA®, are also derived from renewable resources. The methodology chosen for the environmental analysis was a life cycle assessment (LCA) based on a consequential approach developed to assess a product's overall environmental impact from the production system to its usage and disposal. In the field stage, a traditional mulching film (non-biodegradable) could be replaced with a biodegradable product. This change would result in waste production of 0 kg/ha for the bio-based product compared to 260 kg/ha of waste for polyethylene (PE). In the post-harvest stage, the issue addressed was the use and disposal of packaging materials. The innovative scenario evaluated herein pertains to the use of new packaging materials that increase the shelf life of strawberries, thereby decreasing product losses while increasing waste management efficiency at the level of a distribution platform and/or sales outlet. In the event of product deterioration or non-sale of the product, the packaging and its contents could be collected together as organic waste without any additional processes because the packaging is compostable according to EN13432. Scenario 2 would achieve reductions of 20% in the global warming potential and non-renewable energy impact categories

  6. EU climate policy impact in 2020. With a focus on the effectiveness of emissions trading policy in an economic recession scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graus, W.; Sreenivasamurthy, U.; Wesselink, B.

    2009-06-01

    PBL's Environmental Balance 2009 provides information on the current status and trends of environmental and climate policies. Ecofys contributes to the climate policy section of the report by developing the following three indicators: (1) ex-post and ex-ante policy impacts until 2020 at EU level (wedge diagram); (2) business-as-usual emissions of EU ETS sectors until 2020, revised for the current economic recession; (3) a latest literature review of EUA (EU emission allowances) price band expected until 2020. Based on the latter two analyses, a brief note on the impact of the current economic recession on the effectiveness of the EU emission trading scheme until 2020 is presented.An economic recession of two years or longer will considerably decrease the effectiveness of the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) in stimulating low-carbon technologies. In order to meet EU climate targets in the longer term, new governmental policies will be needed to compensate for this.

  7. Cosmogonic scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfven, H.; Arrhenius, G.

    1985-05-01

    A recent analysis demonstrates that the Saturnian C ring and essential features of the B and A rings agrees with the plasma cosmogony approach with an accuracy of about 1% or even better. This starts a transition of cosmogony from speculation to real science. Based on the monographs by Alfven and Arrhenius on the evolution of the solar system a cosmogonic scenario is tentatively proposed. This outlines the evolution of an interstellar cloud and the formation of stars surrounded by solar nebulae under the combined action of gravitational and electromagnetic forces. Further, matter falling in from the solar nebula towards the sun is processed by newly clarified electromagnetic processes and a plasma-planetesimal transition (PPT) occurs. Planetesimals accrete to planets and around some of them the same process in miniature leads to the formation of satellites. Also the origin of comets is discussed. (author)

  8. Global and regional ocean carbon uptake and climate change: sensitivity to a substantial mitigation scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vichi, Marcello; Masina, Simona; Navarra, Antonio [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Manzini, Elisa [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Fogli, Pier Giuseppe [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Alessandri, Andrea [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); ENEA, Rome (Italy); Patara, Lavinia [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences (IFM-GEOMAR), Kiel (Germany); Scoccimarro, Enrico [Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy)

    2011-11-15

    Under future scenarios of business-as-usual emissions, the ocean storage of anthropogenic carbon is anticipated to decrease because of ocean chemistry constraints and positive feedbacks in the carbon-climate dynamics, whereas it is still unknown how the oceanic carbon cycle will respond to more substantial mitigation scenarios. To evaluate the natural system response to prescribed atmospheric ''target'' concentrations and assess the response of the ocean carbon pool to these values, 2 centennial projection simulations have been performed with an Earth System Model that includes a fully coupled carbon cycle, forced in one case with a mitigation scenario and the other with the SRES A1B scenario. End of century ocean uptake with the mitigation scenario is projected to return to the same magnitude of carbon fluxes as simulated in 1960 in the Pacific Ocean and to lower values in the Atlantic. With A1B, the major ocean basins are instead projected to decrease the capacity for carbon uptake globally as found with simpler carbon cycle models, while at the regional level the response is contrasting. The model indicates that the equatorial Pacific may increase the carbon uptake rates in both scenarios, owing to enhancement of the biological carbon pump evidenced by an increase in Net Community Production (NCP) following changes in the subsurface equatorial circulation and enhanced iron availability from extratropical regions. NCP is a proxy of the bulk organic carbon made available to the higher trophic levels and potentially exportable from the surface layers. The model results indicate that, besides the localized increase in the equatorial Pacific, the NCP of lower trophic levels in the northern Pacific and Atlantic oceans is projected to be halved with respect to the current climate under a substantial mitigation scenario at the end of the twenty-first century. It is thus suggested that changes due to cumulative carbon emissions up to present and the

  9. Model and scenario variations in predicted number of generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on peanut during future climate change scenario.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathukumalli Srinivasa Rao

    Full Text Available The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM of future data on daily maximum (T.max, minimum (T.min air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1. This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF -2020, Distant future (DF-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF-2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1-2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18-22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%, model (1.74% and scenario (0.74%. The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods.

  10. Simulation analysis of the possibility of introducing massive renewable energy and nuclear fuel cycle in the scenario to halve global CO2 emissions by the year 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hosoya, Yoshifumi; Komiyama, Ryoichi; Fujii, Yasumasa

    2011-01-01

    There is growing attention to the regulation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to mitigate the global warming. Hence, the target of 50% reduction of global GHG emissions by the year 2050 has been investigated in this paper. The authors have been revising the regionally disaggregated world energy model which is formulated as a large scale linear optimization model from the aspect of nuclear and photovoltaic power generation technologies. This paper explains the structure of the revised world energy model considering the intermittent characteristics of photovoltaic power generation derived from the changes in weather conditions. And also this paper shows the simulation results to halve global CO 2 emissions by the year 2050 and evaluates the long-term technological options such as nuclear fuel cycle and renewable energies. Finally the authors discuss the future step for extensive revision of the energy model. (author)

  11. Hydrogen Pathways: Updated Cost, Well-to-Wheels Energy Use, and Emissions for the Current Technology Status of Ten Hydrogen Production, Delivery, and Distribution Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramsden, T.; Ruth, M.; Diakov, V.; Laffen, M.; Timbario, T. A.

    2013-03-01

    This report describes a life-cycle assessment conducted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) of 10 hydrogen production, delivery, dispensing, and use pathways that were evaluated for cost, energy use, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This evaluation updates and expands on a previous assessment of seven pathways conducted in 2009. This study summarizes key results, parameters, and sensitivities to those parameters for the 10 hydrogen pathways, reporting on the levelized cost of hydrogen in 2007 U.S. dollars as well as life-cycle well-to-wheels energy use and GHG emissions associated with the pathways.

  12. Observation of sand waves in the Taiwan Banks using HJ-1A/1B sun glitter imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hua-guo; Lou, Xiu-lin; Shi, Ai-qin; He, Xie-kai; Guan, Wei-bing; Li, Dong-ling

    2014-01-01

    This study focuses on the large sand waves in the Taiwan Banks. Our goals are to observe the sand waves as completely as possible, to obtain their direction, wavelength, density, and ridge length, to analyze their spatial distributions, and to understand the effects of the current field and water depth on the sand waves. This study demonstrates the possibility of using HJ-1A/1B sun glitter imagery with a large swath width and rapid coverage in studying sand waves. Six cloud-free HJ-1A/1B optical images with sun glitter signals received during 2009 to 2011 were processed. The sand waves were mapped based on their features in the images; their direction, wavelength, density, and ridge length were measured and analyzed. We identified 4604 sand waves distributed in an area of 16,400 km2. The distributions of sand waves and their characteristics were analyzed, and the differences of sand waves between the northwestern subregion and the southeastern subregion are reported. Further analysis and discussion of the relationships between spatial distribution of the sand waves and both the tidal current field from a numerical simulation and water depth led to some interesting conclusions. The current field determines the orientation of the sand wave, while the hydrodynamic conditions and water depth influence the shape, size, and density of sand waves to a certain degree.

  13. Screening estrogenic activities of chemicals or mixtures in vivo using transgenic (cyp19a1b-GFP zebrafish embryos.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    François Brion

    Full Text Available The tg(cyp19a1b-GFP transgenic zebrafish expresses GFP (green fluorescent protein under the control of the cyp19a1b gene, encoding brain aromatase. This gene has two major characteristics: (i it is only expressed in radial glial progenitors in the brain of fish and (ii it is exquisitely sensitive to estrogens. Based on these properties, we demonstrate that natural or synthetic hormones (alone or in binary mixture, including androgens or progestagens, and industrial chemicals induce a concentration-dependent GFP expression in radial glial progenitors. As GFP expression can be quantified by in vivo imaging, this model presents a very powerful tool to screen and characterize compounds potentially acting as estrogen mimics either directly or after metabolization by the zebrafish embryo. This study also shows that radial glial cells that act as stem cells are direct targets for a large panel of endocrine disruptors, calling for more attention regarding the impact of environmental estrogens and/or certain pharmaceuticals on brain development. Altogether these data identify this in vivo bioassay as an interesting alternative to detect estrogen mimics in hazard and risk assessment perspective.

  14. Optical Spectroscopy of SDSS J004054.65-0915268: Three Possible Scenarios for the Classification. A z ˜ 5 BL Lacertae, a Blue FSRQ, or a Weak Emission Line Quasar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landoni, M.; Zanutta, A.; Bianco, A.; Tavecchio, F.; Bonnoli, G.; Ghisellini, G.

    2016-02-01

    The haunt of high-redshift BL Lacerate objects is day by day more compelling to firmly understand their intrinsic nature and evolution. SDSS J004054.65-0915268 is, at the moment, one of the most distant BL Lac candidates, at z ˜ 5. We present a new optical-near-IR spectrum obtained with ALFOSC-NOT with a new, custom designed dispersive grating aimed to detect broad emission lines that could disprove this classification. In the obtained spectra, we do not detect any emission features and we provide an upper limit to the luminosity of the C IV broad emission line. Therefore, the nature of the object is then discussed, building the overall spectral energy distribution (SED) and fitting it with three different models. Our fits, based on SED modeling with different possible scenarios, cannot rule out the possibility that this source is indeed a BL Lac object, though the absence of optical variability and the lack of strong radio flux seem to suggest that the observed optical emission originates from a thermalized accretion disk.

  15. OPTICAL SPECTROSCOPY OF SDSS J004054.65-0915268: THREE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR THE CLASSIFICATION. A z ∼ 5 BL LACERTAE, A BLUE FSRQ, OR A WEAK EMISSION LINE QUASAR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Landoni, M.; Zanutta, A.; Bianco, A.; Tavecchio, F.; Bonnoli, G.; Ghisellini, G.

    2016-01-01

    The haunt of high-redshift BL Lacerate objects is day by day more compelling to firmly understand their intrinsic nature and evolution. SDSS J004054.65-0915268 is, at the moment, one of the most distant BL Lac candidates, at z ∼ 5. We present a new optical-near-IR spectrum obtained with ALFOSC-NOT with a new, custom designed dispersive grating aimed to detect broad emission lines that could disprove this classification. In the obtained spectra, we do not detect any emission features and we provide an upper limit to the luminosity of the C iv broad emission line. Therefore, the nature of the object is then discussed, building the overall spectral energy distribution (SED) and fitting it with three different models. Our fits, based on SED modeling with different possible scenarios, cannot rule out the possibility that this source is indeed a BL Lac object, though the absence of optical variability and the lack of strong radio flux seem to suggest that the observed optical emission originates from a thermalized accretion disk

  16. The long-term effect of climate change on productivity of winter wheat in Denmark: a scenario analysis using three crop models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Öztürk, Isik; Sharif, Behzad; Baby, Sanmohan

    2017-01-01

    ) A1B emission scenario for the 21st century using three process-based models; A 20-year set (1991–2010) of observed daily climate data from Aarslev, Denmark was used to form the baseline, from which the RCM data were generated. The simulation of crop growth was performed with increasing carbon...... dioxide (CO2) levels and under continuous mono-cropping system at different N input rates. Results indicated that grain yield and grain N will be reduced in the future despite increased CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. While the increased N input may increase yield, it will not increase grain N...

  17. Life-Cycle Energy and GHG Emissions for New and Recovered Softwood Framing Lumber and Hardwood Flooring Considering End-of-Life Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard D. Bergman; Robert H. Falk; Hongmei Gu; Thomas R. Napier; Jamie Meil

    2013-01-01

    Within the green building fields is a growing movement to recover and reuse building materials in lieu of demolition and land fill disposal. However, they lack life-cycle data to help quantify environmental impacts. This study quantifies the primary energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions released from the production of wood recovered from an old house and from new...

  18. Scenarios for Deep Carbon Emission Reductions from Electricity by 2050 in Western North America using the Switch Electric Power Sector Planning Model: California's Carbon Challenge Phase II, Volume II

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nelson, James; Mileva, Ana; Johnston, Josiah; Kammen, Daniel; Wei, Max; Greenblatt, Jeffrey

    2014-01-01

    This study used a state-of-the-art planning model called SWITCH for the electric power system to investigate the evolution of the power systems of California and western North America from present-day to 2050 in the context of deep decarbonization of the economy. Researchers concluded that drastic power system carbon emission reductions were feasible by 2050 under a wide range of possible futures. The average cost of power in 2050 would range between $149 to $232 per megawatt hour across scenarios, a 21 to 88 percent increase relative to a business-as-usual scenario, and a 38 to 115 percent increase relative to the present-day cost of power. The power system would need to undergo sweeping change to rapidly decarbonize. Between present-day and 2030 the evolution of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council power system was dominated by implementing aggressive energy efficiency measures, installing renewable energy and gas-fired generation facilities and retiring coal-fired generation. Deploying wind, solar and geothermal power in the 2040 timeframe reduced power system emissions by displacing gas-fired generation. This trend continued for wind and solar in the 2050 timeframe but was accompanied by large amounts of new storage and long-distance high-voltage transmission capacity. Electricity storage was used primarily to move solar energy from the daytime into the night to charge electric vehicles and meet demand from electrified heating. Transmission capacity over the California border increased by 40 - 220 percent by 2050, implying that transmission siting, permitting, and regional cooperation will become increasingly important. California remained a net electricity importer in all scenarios investigated. Wind and solar power were key elements in power system decarbonization in 2050 if no new nuclear capacity was built. The amount of installed gas capacity remained relatively constant between present-day and 2050, although carbon capture and sequestration was

  19. Photochemical model evaluation of the ground-level ozone impacts on ambient air quality and vegetation health in the Alberta oil sands region: Using present and future emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vijayaraghavan, Krish; Cho, Sunny; Morris, Ralph; Spink, David; Jung, Jaegun; Pauls, Ron; Duffett, Katherine

    2016-09-01

    One of the potential environmental issues associated with oil sands development is increased ozone formation resulting from NOX and volatile organic compound emissions from bitumen extraction, processing and upgrading. To manage this issue in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region (AOSR) in northeast Alberta, a regional multi-stakeholder group, the Cumulative Environmental Management Association (CEMA), developed an Ozone Management Framework that includes a modelling based assessment component. In this paper, we describe how the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model was applied to assess potential ground-level ozone formation and impacts on ambient air quality and vegetation health for three different ozone precursor cases in the AOSR. Statistical analysis methods were applied, and the CMAQ performance results met the U.S. EPA model performance goal at all sites. The modelled 4th highest daily maximum 8-h average ozone concentrations in the base and two future year scenarios did not exceed the Canada-wide standard of 65 ppb or the newer Canadian Ambient Air Quality Standards of 63 ppb in 2015 and 62 ppb in 2020. Modelled maximum 1-h ozone concentrations in the study were well below the Alberta Ambient Air Quality Objective of 82 ppb in all three cases. Several ozone vegetation exposure metrics were also evaluated to investigate the potential impact of ground-level ozone on vegetation. The chronic 3-months SUM60 exposure metric is within the CEMA baseline range (0-2000 ppb-hr) everywhere in the AOSR. The AOT40 ozone exposure metric predicted by CMAQ did not exceed the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UN/ECE) threshold of concern of 3000 ppb-hr in any of the cases but is just below the threshold in high-end future emissions scenario. In all three emission scenarios, the CMAQ predicted W126 ozone exposure metric is within the CEMA baseline threshold of 4000 ppb-hr. This study outlines the use of photochemical modelling of the impact of an industry (oil

  20. Impact on short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) from a realistic land-use change scenario via changes in biogenic emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, C E; Monks, S A; Spracklen, D V; Arnold, S R; Forster, P M; Rap, A; Carslaw, K S; Chipperfield, M P; Reddington, C L S; Wilson, C

    2017-08-24

    More than one quarter of natural forests have been cleared by humans to make way for other land-uses, with changes to forest cover projected to continue. The climate impact of land-use change (LUC) is dependent upon the relative strength of several biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects. In addition to affecting the surface albedo and exchanging carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and moisture with the atmosphere, vegetation emits biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), altering the formation of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) including aerosol, ozone (O 3 ) and methane (CH 4 ). Once emitted, BVOCs are rapidly oxidised by O 3 , and the hydroxyl (OH) and nitrate (NO 3 ) radicals. These oxidation reactions yield secondary organic products which are implicated in the formation and growth of aerosol particles and are estimated to have a negative radiative effect on the climate (i.e. a cooling). These reactions also deplete OH, increasing the atmospheric lifetime of CH 4 , and directly affect concentrations of O 3 ; the latter two being greenhouse gases which impose a positive radiative effect (i.e. a warming) on the climate. Our previous work assessing idealised deforestation scenarios found a positive radiative effect due to changes in SLCFs; however, since the radiative effects associated with changes to SLCFs result from a combination of non-linear processes it may not be appropriate to scale radiative effects from complete deforestation scenarios according to the deforestation extent. Here we combine a land-surface model, a chemical transport model, a global aerosol model, and a radiative transfer model to assess the net radiative effect of changes in SLCFs due to historical LUC between the years 1850 and 2000.

  1. Scenarios for the use of GHG-reduction instruments - how can policy-instruments as carbon emission trading and tradable green certificates be used simultaneously to reach a common GHG-reduction target?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morthorst, P.E.

    2000-01-01

    According to the agreed burden sharing in the EU, a number of member states have to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases substantially. To achieve these reductions various policy-instruments - national as well as international - are on hand. Two international instruments are emphasized in this paper: tradable quotas for limiting carbon emissions and tradable green certificates for promoting the deployment of renewable energy technologies. In the analyses of these two instruments two main questions are considered: (1) Will there be any international trade in green certificates, if no GHG-credits are attached to them? (2) Will it make any difference if the EU sets the targets to be achieved by the two instruments or alternatively the individual member countries do? An incentive-analysis in which four scenarios are set up and discussed is performed for the EU member states. The main conclusion is that if no GHG-credits are attached to the green certificates there seems to be limited of no incentives for a permanent international trade in certificates. On the other hand, if GHG-credits are attached to the certificates an efficient international trade will take place regardless of whether the EU or the member countries fix the quotas. Thus, the use of international instruments as tradable green certificates and tradable emissions permits will not lead to an optimal GHG-reduction strategy unless GHG-credits are attached to the certificates. (author)

  2. Uncertainty in the Future Distribution of Tropospheric Ozone over West Africa due to Variability in Anthropogenic Emissions Estimates between 2025 and 2050

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. E. Williams

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Particle and trace gas emissions due to anthropogenic activity are expected to increase significantly in West Africa over the next few decades due to rising population and more energy intensive lifestyles. Here we perform 3D global chemistry-transport model calculations for 2025 and 2050 using both a “business-as-usual” (A1B and “clean economy” (B1 future anthropogenic emission scenario to focus on the changes in the distribution and uncertainties associated with tropospheric O3 due to the various projected emission scenarios. When compared to the present-day troposphere we find that there are significant increases in tropospheric O3 for the A1B emission scenario, with the largest increases being located in the lower troposphere near the source regions and into the Sahel around 15–20°N. In part this increase is due to more efficient NOx re-cycling related to increases in the background methane concentrations. Examining the uncertainty across different emission inventories reveals that there is an associated uncertainty of up to ~20% in the predicted increases at 2025 and 2050. For the upper troposphere, where increases in O3 have a more pronounced impact on radiative forcing, the uncertainty is influenced by transport of O3 rich air from Asia on the Tropical Easterly Jet.

  3. Nuclear power prospects and potential: scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogner, Hans-Hogler; McDonald, Alan; )

    2002-01-01

    This paper outlines a range of scenarios describing what the world's energy system might look in the middle of the century, and what nuclear energy's most profitable role might be. The starting point is the 40 non-greenhouse-gas-mitigation scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Given their international authorship and comprehensive review by governments and scientific experts, the SRES scenarios are the state of the art in long-term energy scenarios

  4. Modeling the Projected Changes of River Flow in Central Vietnam under Different Climate Change Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tuan B. Le

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Recent studies by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC indicate that Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change. The variability of climate in this region, characterized by large fluctuations in precipitation and temperature, has caused significant changes in surface water resources. This study aims to project the impact of climate change on the seasonal availability of surface water of the Huong River in Central Vietnam in the twenty-first century through hydrologic simulations driven by climate model projections. To calibrate and validate the hydrologic model, the model was forced by the rain gage-based gridded Asian Precipitation–Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of water resources (APHRODITE V1003R1 Monsoon Asia precipitation data along with observed temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation data from local weather stations. The simulated discharge was compared to observations for the period from 1951 until present. Three Global Climate Models (GCMs ECHAM5-OM, HadCM3 and GFDL-CM2.1 integrated into Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG stochastic weather generator were run for three IPCC–Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC-SRES emissions scenarios A1B, A2, and B1 to simulate future climate conditions. The hydrologic model simulated the Huong River discharge for each IPCC-SRES scenario. Simulation results under the three GCMs generally indicate an increase in summer and fall river discharge during the twenty-first century in A2 and B1 scenarios. For A1B scenario, HadCM3 and GFDL-CM2.1 models project a decrease in river discharge from present to the 2051–2080 period and then increase until the 2071–2100 period while ECHAM5-OM model produces opposite projection that discharge will increase until the 2051–2080 period and then decrease for the rest of the century. Water management

  5. Shell energy scenarios to 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    Shell developed two scenarios that describe alternative ways the energy future may develop. In the first scenario (Scramble) policymakers pay little attention to more efficient energy use until supplies are tight. Likewise, greenhouse gas emissions are not seriously addressed until there are major climate shocks. In the second scenario (Blueprints) growing local actions begin to address the challenges of economic development, energy security and environmental pollution. A price is applied to a critical mass of emissions giving a huge stimulus to the development of clean energy technologies, such as carbon dioxide capture and storage, and energy efficiency measures. The result is far lower carbon dioxide emissions. Both these scenarios can help Shell to test their strategy against a range of possible developments over the long-term. However, according to Shell, the Blueprints' outcomes offer the best hope for a sustainable future, whether or not they arise exactly in the way described. However, with the right combination of policy, technology and commitment from governments, industry and society globally, Shell believes it can be realized. But achieving the targets will not be easy, and time is short. Clear thinking, huge investment, and effective leadership are required

  6. Estimating future energy use and CO2 emissions of the world's cities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, Shweta; Kennedy, Chris

    2015-01-01

    This paper develops a tool for estimating energy-related CO 2 emissions from the world's cities based on regression models. The models are developed considering climatic (heating-degree-days) and urban design (land area per person) independent variables. The tool is applied on 3646 urban areas for estimating impacts on urban emissions of a) global transitioning to Electric Vehicles, b) urban density change and c) IPCC climate change scenarios. Results show that urban density decline can lead to significant increase in energy emissions (upto 346% in electricity & 428% in transportation at 2% density decline by 2050). Among the IPCC climate scenarios tested, A1B is the most effective in reducing growth of emissions (upto 12% in electricity & 35% in heating). The tool can further be improved by including more data in the regression models along with inclusion of other relevant emissions and climatic variables. - Highlights: • A tool for estimation of energy related emissions for urban areas is developed. • Heating degree days and urbanized area per capita are driving variables for urban energy consumption. • Global transition to EVs can only mitigate transportation emissions if GHG intensity of electricity grid is reduced. • Density decline of urban areas can lead to exponential increase of energy related emissions. • Climate change scenarios can slightly reduce the growth of energy related emissions increase by 2050. - A tool for estimation of global impact of urban systems on energy related emissions was developed that can simulate the impact of future scenarios (climate change, urban design etc)

  7. Hydropower Production in Future Climate Scenarios; the Case for the Zambezi River

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Byman H. Hamududu

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate change remains a threat to water resources projects in southern Africa where impacts resulting from changes in climate are projected to be negative and worse than in most other regions of the world. This work presents an assessment of the impacts of climate change on water resources and hydropower production potential in the Zambezi River Basin. Future climate scenarios projected through the five General Circulation Model (GCM outputs are used as input in the impact assessment. The future projected climate scenarios are downscaled to find local and regional changes, and used in the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV hydrological model to assess climate change impacts on water resources in the river basin. According to the simulations, air temperature and potential evaporation are projected to increase, while rainfall is projected to decrease. The Zambezi hydropower system is likely to be affected negatively as a result of future climate changes. Increasing air temperature leading to increased evaporation, and reduced rainfall, both contribute to a decrease in resulting river flows and increased reservoir evaporation. Consequently, the decrease in water resources will lead to decreased hydropower production potential, by 9% in 2020s, 18% in 2050s and 28% in 2080s in the hydropower system, for a medium emission scenario, A1B.

  8. Comparing long term energy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cumo, M.; Simbolotti, G.

    2001-01-01

    Major projection studies by international organizations and senior analysts have been compared with reference to individual key parameters (population, energy demand/supply, resources, technology, emissions and global warming) to understand trends and implications of the different scenarios. Then, looking at the long term (i.e., 2050 and beyond), parameters and trends have been compared together to understand and quantify whether and when possible crisis or market turbulence might occur due to shortage of resources or environmental problems [it

  9. Global energy context: future scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beretta, Gian Paolo

    2006-01-01

    After a brief analysis of the history of global energy consumption, this paper discusses a plausible scenario of energy needs and related carbon emissions for the rest of the century. The global outlook and the probable evolution of several factors that impact on energy policy considerations - even on the local scale - demonstrate the great complexity and planetary dimension of the problems, as well as the almost certain sterility of out-of-context domestic energy-policy measures [it

  10. ANCRE scenarios for energy transition. Report 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alazard-Toux, Nathalie; Des Courtils, Nicolas; Hache, Emmanuel; Liegeard, Alban; Lorne, Daphne; Duplan, Jean-Luc; Kalaydjian, Francois; Heintze, Eric; Tilagone, Richard; Henriot, Stephane; Forti, Laurent; Barthelemy, Pascal; Merlen, Elisabeth; Criqui, Patrick; Mathy, Sandrine; Menanteau, Philippe; Devezeaux De Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Avril, Sophie; Cavata, Christian; Le Duigou, Alain; Le Net, Elisabeth; Marcucci-Demeure, Jeanne; Safa, Henri; Topper, Benjamin; Touboul, Francoise; Carre, Franck; Joly, Jean-Pierre; Charbit, Francoise; Mermilliod, Nicole; Mermilliod, Nicole; Le Net, Elisabeth; Teissier, Olivier; Charrue, Herve; Colonna, Paul; Legrand, Jack; Vidal, Olivier; Goffe, Bruno; Mueller, Alex; Flamant, Gilles; Allard, Francis; Most, Jean-Michel; Matarasso, Pierre; Brault, Pascal; Lemoine, Lionel; Achard, Jean-Luc; Uster, Guillaume; Delsey, Jean; Lucchese, Paul; Tadrist, Lounes; Hadjsaid, Nouredine

    2014-01-01

    This report first gives an overview of the energy system by presenting the determining factors of energy demand and of CO 2 emissions per sector (housing and office building, transport, industry, agriculture, forestry and biomass), by analysing energy systems and CO 2 emissions (energy sources, energy vectors, networks and storage, energy and CO 2 assessment for France), and by describing the guidelines of the scenarios proposed by ANCRE. The three main scenarios are characterized by a stronger sobriety, an electricity-based de-carbonation (with a variant based on nuclear and renewable energies), and diversified vectors. They are notably compared to a trend-based reference scenario. Results are discussed in terms of energy consumption (primary and final energy, consumption by the different sectors), of energy production and CO 2 emissions. Scenarios are assessed in terms of economic, environmental and societal, political and strategic criteria. Some consequences for research topics and funding are identified

  11. Assessing oral bioaccessibility of trace elements in soils under worst-case scenarios by automated in-line dynamic extraction as a front end to inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosende, María [FI-TRACE group, Department of Chemistry, University of the Balearic Islands, Carretera de Valldemossa, km 7.5, Palma de Mallorca, Illes Balears E-07122 (Spain); Magalhães, Luis M.; Segundo, Marcela A. [REQUIMTE, Department of Chemistry, Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Porto, R. de Jorge Viterbo Ferreira, 228, Porto 4050-313 (Portugal); Miró, Manuel, E-mail: manuel.miro@uib.es [FI-TRACE group, Department of Chemistry, University of the Balearic Islands, Carretera de Valldemossa, km 7.5, Palma de Mallorca, Illes Balears E-07122 (Spain)

    2014-09-09

    Highlights: • Automatic oral bioaccessibility tests of trace metals under worst-case scenarios. • Use of intricate and realistic digestive fluids (UBM method). • Analysis of large amounts of soils (≥400 mg) in a flow-based configuration. • Smart interface to inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry. • Comparison of distinct flow systems mimicking physiological conditions. - Abstract: A novel biomimetic extraction procedure that allows for the in-line handing of ≥400 mg solid substrates is herein proposed for automatic ascertainment of trace element (TE) bioaccessibility in soils under worst-case conditions as per recommendations of ISO norms. A unified bioaccessibility/BARGE method (UBM)-like physiological-based extraction test is evaluated for the first time in a dynamic format for accurate assessment of in-vitro bioaccessibility of Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn in forest and residential-garden soils by on-line coupling of a hybrid flow set-up to inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry. Three biologically relevant operational extraction modes mimicking: (i) gastric juice extraction alone; (ii) saliva and gastric juice composite in unidirectional flow extraction format and (iii) saliva and gastric juice composite in a recirculation mode were thoroughly investigated. The extraction profiles of the three configurations using digestive fluids were proven to fit a first order reaction kinetic model for estimating the maximum TE bioaccessibility, that is, the actual worst-case scenario in human risk assessment protocols. A full factorial design, in which the sample amount (400–800 mg), the extractant flow rate (0.5–1.5 mL min{sup −1}) and the extraction temperature (27–37 °C) were selected as variables for the multivariate optimization studies in order to obtain the maximum TE extractability. Two soils of varied physicochemical properties were analysed and no significant differences were found at the 0.05 significance level

  12. Assessing oral bioaccessibility of trace elements in soils under worst-case scenarios by automated in-line dynamic extraction as a front end to inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosende, María; Magalhães, Luis M.; Segundo, Marcela A.; Miró, Manuel

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Automatic oral bioaccessibility tests of trace metals under worst-case scenarios. • Use of intricate and realistic digestive fluids (UBM method). • Analysis of large amounts of soils (≥400 mg) in a flow-based configuration. • Smart interface to inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry. • Comparison of distinct flow systems mimicking physiological conditions. - Abstract: A novel biomimetic extraction procedure that allows for the in-line handing of ≥400 mg solid substrates is herein proposed for automatic ascertainment of trace element (TE) bioaccessibility in soils under worst-case conditions as per recommendations of ISO norms. A unified bioaccessibility/BARGE method (UBM)-like physiological-based extraction test is evaluated for the first time in a dynamic format for accurate assessment of in-vitro bioaccessibility of Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn in forest and residential-garden soils by on-line coupling of a hybrid flow set-up to inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry. Three biologically relevant operational extraction modes mimicking: (i) gastric juice extraction alone; (ii) saliva and gastric juice composite in unidirectional flow extraction format and (iii) saliva and gastric juice composite in a recirculation mode were thoroughly investigated. The extraction profiles of the three configurations using digestive fluids were proven to fit a first order reaction kinetic model for estimating the maximum TE bioaccessibility, that is, the actual worst-case scenario in human risk assessment protocols. A full factorial design, in which the sample amount (400–800 mg), the extractant flow rate (0.5–1.5 mL min −1 ) and the extraction temperature (27–37 °C) were selected as variables for the multivariate optimization studies in order to obtain the maximum TE extractability. Two soils of varied physicochemical properties were analysed and no significant differences were found at the 0.05 significance level

  13. CO2 emission scenarios for next centuries to obtain more complete simulations of the global warming; Scenari globali di emissione a lungo termine di CO2 per una simulazione piu' completa dell'effetto serra

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Michelini, M. [ENEA, Divisione Sistemi Energetici per la Mobilita' e l' Habitat, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, Rome (Italy)

    2001-07-01

    In the framework of a punctual Modeling of the Greenhouse Effect (report RT/ERG/2001/1) it is necessary to set CO2 Emission Scenarios for the next Centuries in order to obtain the complete evolution of the global warming. Some methodologies are described to approach such long term previsions. From the demand side, the growth of the consumes (which are affected by population and development) is correlated (supply side) with the technical-economic-environmental Evaluation of the future diffusion of classic sources (experienced in the past centuries) and of new Technologies and renewable sources. The previsions of the world population Growth are derived from the UNFPA publications. The degree of economic Development of the world Population in the very long term is obtained by simulating the Evolution of the Population across four main Areas characterized by different pro-capita consumes. Using these criteria two different Scenarios have been set-up and put into comparison with the SRES Scenarios published in the Third Assessment Report-WG1 of the IPCC. The cut at the year 2100 of the SRES Scenarios is also discussed. Simulations of the Global Warming in the long term have been performed with the two scenarios. These results are discussed together with the results of the Simulations reported by IPCC. [Italian] Nell'ambito della elaborazione di un modello puntuale per la simulazione del riscaldamento globale conseguente all'effetto serra, (rapporto tecnico RT/ERG/2001/1), viene ripresa la problematica degli scenari di emissione di CO2 per alcuni secoli al fine di poter studiare l'intera evoluzione del fenomeno. Per superare le difficolta' insite nelle previsioni riferite a un futuro tanto lontano, vengono indicate alcune metodologie. Dal lato domanda i principali fattori di crescita dei consumi (cioe' popolazione e sviluppo economico) vengono posti a confronto (lato offerta) con le modalita' di diffusione delle singole fonti desunte dai

  14. Critical early roles for col27a1a and col27a1b in zebrafish notochord morphogenesis, vertebral mineralization and post-embryonic axial growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christiansen, Helena E; Lang, Michael R; Pace, James M; Parichy, David M

    2009-12-29

    Fibrillar collagens are well known for their links to human diseases, with which all have been associated except for the two most recently identified fibrillar collagens, type XXIV collagen and type XXVII collagen. To assess functions and potential disease phenotypes of type XXVII collagen, we examined its roles in zebrafish embryonic and post-embryonic development. We identified two type XXVII collagen genes in zebrafish, col27a1a and col27a1b. Both col27a1a and col27a1b were expressed in notochord and cartilage in the embryo and early larva. To determine sites of type XXVII collagen function, col27a1a and col27a1b were knocked down using morpholino antisense oligonucleotides. Knockdown of col27a1a singly or in conjunction with col27a1b resulted in curvature of the notochord at early stages and formation of scoliotic curves as well as dysmorphic vertebrae at later stages. These defects were accompanied by abnormal distributions of cells and protein localization in the notochord, as visualized by transmission electron microscopy, as well as delayed vertebral mineralization as detected histologically. Together, our findings indicate a key role for type XXVII collagen in notochord morphogenesis and axial skeletogenesis and suggest a possible human disease phenotype.

  15. Exposure scenarios for workers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

    2007-01-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate

  16. Interpreting energy scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

    2018-05-01

    Quantitative scenarios from energy-economic models inform decision-making about uncertain futures. Now, research shows the different ways these scenarios are subsequently used by users not involved in their initial development. In the absence of clear guidance from modellers, users may place too much or too little confidence in scenario assumptions and results.

  17. Isolation and characterization of cyp19a1a and cyp19a1b promoters in the protogynous hermaphrodite orange-spotted grouper (Epinephelus coioides).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Weimin; Lu, Huijie; Jiang, Haiyan; Li, Mu; Zhang, Shen; Liu, Qiongyou; Zhang, Lihong

    2012-02-01

    Aromatase (CYP19A1) catalyzes the conversion of androgens to estrogens. In teleosts, duplicated copies of cyp19a1 genes, namely cyp19a1a and cyp19a1b, were identified, however, the transcriptional regulation of these two genes remains poorly understood. In the present study, the 5'-flanking regions of the orange-spotted grouper cyp19a1a (gcyp19a1a) and cyp19a1b (gcyp19a1b) genes were isolated and characterized. The proximal promoter regions of both genes were relatively conserved when compared to those of the other teleosts. Notably, a conserved FOXO transcriptional factor binding site was firstly reported in the proximal promoter of gcyp19a1a, and deletion of the region (-112 to -60) containing this site significantly decreased the promoter activities. The deletion of the region (-246 to -112) containing the two conserved FTZ-F1 sites also dramatically decreased the transcriptional activities of gcyp19a1a promoter, and both two FTZ-F1 sites were shown to be stimulatory cis-acting elements. A FTZ-F1 homologue isolated from ricefield eel (eFTZ-F1) up-regulated gcyp19a1a promoter activities possibly via the FTZ-F1 sites, however, a previously identified orange-spotted grouper FTZ-F1 homologue (gFTZ-F1) did not activate the transcription of gcyp19a1a promoter unexpectedly. As to gcyp19a1b promoter, all the deletion constructs did not show good promoter activities in either TM4 or U251-MG cells. Estradiol (100nM) up-regulated gcyp19a1b promoter activities by about 13- and 36-fold in TM4 and U251-MG cells, respectively, via the conserved ERE motif, but did not stimulate gcyp19a1a promoter activities. These results are helpful to further elucidate the regulatory mechanisms of cyp19a1a and cyp19a1b expression in the orange-spotted grouper as well as other teleosts. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Effects of emissions change, climate change and long-range transport on regional modeling of future U.S. particulate matter pollution and speciation

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Hao; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Wuebbles, Donald J.

    2018-04-01

    This study investigates the future U.S. PM2.5 pollution under multiple emissions scenarios, climate states, and long-range transport (LRT) effects using the regional Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model integrated with a regional climate model. CMAQ with fixed chemical lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) successfully reproduces the present-day PM2.5 pollution and its major species in rural and suburban areas, but has some discrepancies in urban areas such as the Los Angeles Basin, where detailed emissions and meteorology conditions cannot be resolved by the 30 km grid. Its performance is slightly worsened when using dynamic chemical LBCs from global chemical transport model (CTM) simulations, which provide cleaner conditions into the CMAQ lateral boundaries. Under future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios, CMAQ projects large PM2.5 reductions (∼40% for A1B and ∼20% for A1Fi scenario) in the eastern United States, but slight to moderate increases (∼5% for A1B and ∼10% for A1Fi) in the western United States. The projected increases are particularly large (up to 30%) near the Mexico-U.S. border, suggesting that Mexico is a major source for future U.S. PM2.5 pollution. The effect from climate change alone is estimated to increase PM2.5 levels ubiquitously (∼5% for both A1B and A1Fi) over the United States, except for a small decrease in the Houston, Texas area, where anthropogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) emissions dominate. This climate penalty, however, is substantially smaller than effects of emissions change, especially in the eastern United States. Future PM2.5 pollution is affected substantially (up to -20%) by changes in SO2 emissions and moderately (3-5%) by changes in NOx and NH3 emissions. The long-range transport (LRT) effects, which are estimated by comparing CMAQ simulations with fixed and dynamic LBCs, are regional dependent, causing up to 10-20% decrease over the western United

  19. The Greenpeace 2013 scenario for energy transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cormier, Cyrille; Teske, Sven

    2013-01-01

    After a synthesis of the Greenpeace scenario for energy transition, this report presents the French current energy landscape: structure of the energy system, greenhouse gas emissions and nuclear risks, main social and economic challenges, and search for a political ambition (from the Grenelle de l'Environnement to the current debate on energy). Then, after having outlined that energy transition must be decided now, the report presents the scenario hypotheses: studies used to develop the scenario, macro-economic and technical-economic hypotheses. The scenario is then presented in terms of possible trajectory, of energy demand (global evolution per sector), of energy production (electricity, heat, mobility), and of CO 2 assessment and nuclear wastes. Scenarios are compared in social and economic terms, more particularly in terms of investments in electricity and heat production systems, of electricity production costs and electricity bill, of energy independence, and of jobs in the electricity and heat sectors

  20. Baseline scenarios of global environmental change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alcamo, J.; Kreileman, G.J.J.; Bollen, J.C.; Born, G.J. van den; Krol, M.S.; Toet, A.M.C.; Vries, H.J.M. de; Gerlagh, R.

    1996-01-01

    This paper presents three baseline scenarios of no policy action computed by the IMAGE2 model. These scenarios cover a wide range of coupled global change indicators, including: energy demand and consumption; food demand, consumption, and production; changes in land cover including changes in extent of agricultural land and forest; emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors; and climate change and its impacts on sea level rise, crop productivity and natural vegetation. Scenario information is available for the entire world with regional and grid scale detail, and covers from 1970 to 2100. (author)

  1. The world in scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Jong, A.; Roodenburg, H.

    1992-01-01

    As an introduction to this special issue 'Worlds of difference: Scenarios's for the economy, energy and the environment 1990-2015', an outline is given of the future of the world and the Netherlands, based on four scenarios. These scenarios are published in 'Scanning the future' in May 1992 by the CPB, the Dutch Central Planning Bureau. The Global Shift (GS) scenario is characterized by a very dynamic technological development, the free market perspective, strong economic growth in the Asian economies, and a relative economic regression in Western Europe. In the European Renaissance (ER) scenario the technological development is less dynamic and more gradual than in the GS scenario. The Balanced Growth (BG) scenario is dominated by a sustainable economic development and a strong technological dynamic development. The Global Crisis (GC) scenario shows a downward spiral in many areas, stagnating developments and fragile economies as results of the trends in the eighties. The first three scenarios are elaborated for the Netherlands. Also attention is paid to the aims and meaning of long-term scenarios. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 3 refs

  2. Loss of Slc4a1b chloride/bicarbonate exchanger function protects mechanosensory hair cells from aminoglycoside damage in the zebrafish mutant persephone.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dale W Hailey

    Full Text Available Mechanosensory hair cell death is a leading cause of hearing and balance disorders in the human population. Hair cells are remarkably sensitive to environmental insults such as excessive noise and exposure to some otherwise therapeutic drugs. However, individual responses to damaging agents can vary, in part due to genetic differences. We previously carried out a forward genetic screen using the zebrafish lateral line system to identify mutations that alter the response of larval hair cells to the antibiotic neomycin, one of a class of aminoglycoside compounds that cause hair cell death in humans. The persephone mutation confers resistance to aminoglycosides. 5 dpf homozygous persephone mutants are indistinguishable from wild-type siblings, but differ in their retention of lateral line hair cells upon exposure to neomycin. The mutation in persephone maps to the chloride/bicarbonate exchanger slc4a1b and introduces a single Ser-to-Phe substitution in zSlc4a1b. This mutation prevents delivery of the exchanger to the cell surface and abolishes the ability of the protein to import chloride across the plasma membrane. Loss of function of zSlc4a1b reduces hair cell death caused by exposure to the aminoglycosides neomycin, kanamycin, and gentamicin, and the chemotherapeutic drug cisplatin. Pharmacological block of anion transport with the disulfonic stilbene derivatives DIDS and SITS, or exposure to exogenous bicarbonate, also protects hair cells against damage. Both persephone mutant and DIDS-treated wild-type larvae show reduced uptake of labeled aminoglycosides. persephone mutants also show reduced FM1-43 uptake, indicating a potential impact on mechanotransduction-coupled activity in the mutant. We propose that tight regulation of the ionic environment of sensory hair cells, mediated by zSlc4a1b activity, is critical for their sensitivity to aminoglycoside antibiotics.

  3. Food scenarios 2025

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundbo, Jon

    2016-01-01

    This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

  4. Additive effects of levonorgestrel and ethinylestradiol on brain aromatase (cyp19a1b) in zebrafish specific in vitro and in vivo bioassays

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hinfray, N., E-mail: nathalie.hinfray@ineris.fr [INERIS, Unité d' écotoxicologie in vitro et in vivo , Verneuil-en-Halatte (France); Tebby, C. [INERIS, Unité Modèles pour l' Ecotoxicologie et la Toxicologie, Verneuil-en-Halatte (France); Garoche, C.; Piccini, B. [INERIS, Unité d' écotoxicologie in vitro et in vivo , Verneuil-en-Halatte (France); Bourgine, G. [IRSET, équipe NEED, Université de Rennes 1, Rennes (France); Aït-Aïssa, S. [INERIS, Unité d' écotoxicologie in vitro et in vivo , Verneuil-en-Halatte (France); Kah, O. [IRSET, équipe NEED, Université de Rennes 1, Rennes (France); Pakdel, F. [IRSET, Inserm U1085, équipe TREC, Université de Rennes 1, Rennes (France); Brion, F. [INERIS, Unité d' écotoxicologie in vitro et in vivo , Verneuil-en-Halatte (France)

    2016-09-15

    Estrogens and progestins are widely used in combination in human medicine and both are present in aquatic environment. Despite the joint exposure of aquatic wildlife to estrogens and progestins, very little information is available on their combined effects. In the present study we investigated the effect of ethinylestradiol (EE2) and Levonorgestrel (LNG), alone and in mixtures, on the expression of the brain specific ER-regulated cyp19a1b gene. For that purpose, recently established zebrafish-derived tools were used: (i) an in vitro transient reporter gene assay in a human glial cell line (U251-MG) co-transfected with zebrafish estrogen receptors (zfERs) and the luciferase gene under the control of the zebrafish cyp19a1b gene promoter and (ii) an in vivo bioassay using a transgenic zebrafish expressing GFP under the control of the zebrafish cyp19a1b gene promoter (cyp19a1b-GFP). Concentration-response relationships for single chemicals were modeled and used to design the mixture experiments following a ray design. The results from mixture experiments were analyzed to predict joint effects according to concentration addition and statistical approaches were used to characterize the potential interactions between the components of the mixtures (synergism/antagonism). We confirmed that some progestins could elicit estrogenic effects in fish brain. In mixtures, EE2 and LNG exerted additive estrogenic effects both in vitro and in vivo, suggesting that some environmental progestin could exert effects that will add to those of environmental (xeno-)estrogens. Moreover, our zebrafish specific assays are valuable tools that could be used in risk assessment for both single chemicals and their mixtures. - Highlights: • Combined effects of EE2 and LNG were assessed on ER-dependent cyp19a1b expression. • EE2 and LNG alone induced brain aromatase in zebrafish specific bioassays. • Experimental ray design allowed complete concentration-response surfaces modeling. • EE2 and

  5. Elaborating SRES scenarios for nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDonald, Alan; Riahi, Keywan; Rogner, Hans-Holger

    2003-01-01

    The objective of this paper is identifying mid-century economic targets for nuclear energy. The first step is to describe what the mid-century energy market might look like: the major competitors for nuclear energy, what products are in demand, how much of each, where is growth greatest, and so forth. The mechanism for systematically describing the future market is scenario building. The starting point is the scenarios in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. SRES developed four narrative story lines, each representing a different coherent set of demographic, social, economic, technological, and environmental developments. For each story line several different scenarios were developed by six international modelling teams, resulting in 40 scenarios grouped in the 4 story lines. For three of the story lines this paper uses a single marker scenario representative of central tendencies within the scenario family. For the fourth story line the authors chose the scenario that assumes that advances in non-fossil technologies - renewable, nuclear, and high-efficiency conservation technologies - make them most cost-competitive. (BA)

  6. From scenarios to components

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fahland, D.

    2010-01-01

    Scenario-based modeling has evolved as an accepted paradigm for developing complex systems of various kinds. Its main purpose is to ensure that a system provides desired behavior to its users. A scenario is generally understood as a behavioral requirement, denoting a course of actions that shall

  7. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin; Warren, Drake Edward; Hayden, Nancy Kay; Passell, Howard D.; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Backus, George A.

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  8. Scenario-based strategizing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lehr, Thomas; Lorenz, Ullrich; Willert, Markus

    2017-01-01

    For over 40 years, scenarios have been promoted as a key technique for forming strategies in uncertain en- vironments. However, many challenges remain. In this article, we discuss a novel approach designed to increase the applicability of scenario-based strategizing in top management teams. Drawi...... Ministry) and a firm affected by disruptive change (Bosch, leading global supplier of technology and solutions)....

  9. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Warren, Drake Edward [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hayden, Nancy Kay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Passell, Howard D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  10. Integrative Scenario Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joerg A. Priess

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Scenarios are employed to address a large number of future environmental and socioeconomic challenges. We present a conceptual framework for the development of scenarios to integrate the objectives of different stakeholder groups. Based on the framework, land-use scenarios were developed to provide a common base for further research. At the same time, these scenarios assisted regional stakeholders to bring forward their concerns and arrive at a shared understanding of challenges between scientific and regional stakeholders, which allowed them to eventually support regional decision making. The focus on the integration of views and knowledge domains of different stakeholder groups, such as scientists and practitioners, required rigorous and repeated measures of quality control. The application of the integrative concept provided products for both stakeholder groups, and the process of scenario development facilitated cooperation and learning within both the scientist and practitioner groups as well as between the two groups.

  11. Effect-directed analysis for estrogenic compounds in a fluvial sediment sample using transgenic cyp19a1b-GFP zebrafish embryos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fetter, Eva; Krauss, Martin; Brion, François; Kah, Olivier; Scholz, Stefan; Brack, Werner

    2014-09-01

    Xenoestrogens may persist in the environment by binding to sediments or suspended particulate matter serving as long-term reservoir and source of exposure, particularly for organisms living in or in contact with sediments. In this study, we present for the first time an effect-directed analysis (EDA) for identifying estrogenic compounds in a sediment sample using embryos of a transgenic reporter fish strain. In the tg(cyp19a1b-GFP) transgenic zebrafish strain, the expression of GFP (green fluorescent protein) in the brain is driven by an oestrogen responsive element in the promoter of the cyp19a1b (aromatase) gene. The selected sediment sample of the Czech river Bilina had already been analysed in a previous EDA using the yeast oestrogen screening assay and had revealed fractions containing estrogenic compounds. When normal phase HPLC (high performance liquid chromatography) fractionation was used for the separation of the sediment sample, the biotest with transgenic fish embryos revealed two estrogenic fractions. Chemical analysis of candidate compounds in these sediment fractions suggested alkylphenols and estrone as candidate compounds responsible for the observed estrogenic effect. Alkylphenol concentrations could partially explain the estrogenicity of the fractions. However, xenoestrogens below the analytical detection limit or non-targeted estrogenic compounds have probably also contributed to the sample's estrogenic potency. The results indicated the suitability of the tg(cyp19a1b-GFP) fish embryo for an integrated chemical-biological analysis of estrogenic effects. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Mars base buildup scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blacic, J.D.

    1985-01-01

    Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station

  13. Analysis of global warming stabilization scenarios. The Asian-Pacific Integrated Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kainuma, Mikiko; Morita, Tsuneyuki; Masui, Toshihiko; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Matsuoka, Yuzuru

    2004-01-01

    This paper analyzes the economic and climatic impacts of the EMF 19 emission scenarios. A reference scenario, three emission scenarios targeting 550 ppmv atmospheric concentration, and three tax scenarios are analyzed. The profiles of energy consumption and economic losses of each policy scenario are compared to the reference scenario. The model also estimates that global mean temperature will increase 1.7-2.9 C in 2100, and the sea level will rise 40-51 cm, compared to the 1990 levels under the EMF scenarios. Impacts on food productivity and malaria infection are estimated to be very severe in some countries in the Asian region

  14. High water-stressed population estimated by world water resources assessment including human activities under SRES scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiguchi, M.; Shen, Y.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

    2009-04-01

    In an argument of the reduction and the adaptation for the climate change, the evaluation of the influence by the climate change is important. When we argue in adaptation plan from a damage scale and balance with the cost, it is particularly important. Parry et al (2001) evaluated the risks in shortage of water, malaria, food, the risk of the coast flood by temperature function and clarified the level of critical climate change. According to their evaluation, the population to be affected by the shortage of water suddenly increases in the range where temperature increases from 1.5 to 2.0 degree in 2080s. They showed how much we need to reduce emissions in order to draw-down significantly the number at risk. This evaluation of critical climate change threats and targets of water shortage did not include the water withdrawal divided by water availability. Shen et al (2008a) estimated the water withdrawal of projection of future world water resources according to socio-economic driving factors predicted for scenarios A1b, A2, B1, and B2 of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). However, these results were in function of not temperature but time. The assessment of the highly water-stressed population considered the socioeconomic development is necessary for a function of the temperature. Because of it is easy to understand to need to reduce emission. We present a multi-GCM analysis of the global and regional populations lived in highly water-stressed basin for a function of the temperature using the socioeconomic data and the outputs of GCMs. In scenario A2, the population increases gradually with warming. On the other hand, the future projection population in scenario A1b and B1 increase gradually until the temperature anomaly exceeds around from +1 to +1.5 degree. After that the population is almost constant. From Shen et al (2008b), we evaluated the HWSP and its ratio in the world with temperature function for scenarios A1B, A2, and B1 by the index of W

  15. JAXA's Space Exploration Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, N. S.

    2018-04-01

    Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) has been studying space exploration scenario, including human exploration for Japan since 2015, which encompasses goals, knowledge gap assessment, and architecture. assessment, and technology roadmap.

  16. Learning Through Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose

    level variables, this research corrects this void by investigating the dynamics of organizational learning through the lenses of a corporate scenario planning process. This enhances our scientific understanding of the role that scenario planning might play in the context of organizational learning......This project investigates the uses and effects of scenario planning in companies operating in highly uncertain and dynamic environments. Whereas previous research on scenario planning has fallen short of providing sufficient evidence of its mechanisms and effects on individual or organizational...... and strategic renewal. Empirical evidence of the various difficulties that learning flows has to overcome as it journeys through organizational and hierarchical levels are presented. Despite various cognitive and social psychological barriers identified along the way, the results show the novel...

  17. Integrated transportation scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    Regional land usetransportation scenario planning emerged as a planning technique in U.S. : metropolitan areas in the 1990s. Building on prior work by this research team, this study continues : to track the development and expansion of regional sc...

  18. A few scenarios still do not fit all

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schweizer, Vanessa

    2018-05-01

    For integrated climate change research, the Scenario Matrix Architecture provides a tractable menu of possible emissions trajectories, socio-economic futures and policy environments. However, the future of decision support may lie in searchable databases.

  19. Scenarios of Expansion to Electric Generation Capacity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Somoza-Cabrera

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available We show the building scenarios of expansion to electric generation capacity enough to supply the demand to 2050. We were using the LEAP facility (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System, to simulate dispatch of electricity at minimum cost. Finally, we show the cost-benefice analysis of the technologies availability, included externality and CO2 emission limited. However that we included the externals cost in this analysis, it results insufficient to closed gap between fossil and renewable technologies of electric generation. Nevertheless, in some opportunities the renewable options had very important participations in the minimal cost scenario of expansion.

  20. Scenarios and innovative systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-11-01

    The purpose of this workshop is to present to the GEDEON community the scenarios for the deployment of innovative nuclear solutions. Both steady state situations and possible transitions from the present to new reactors and fuel cycles are considered. Innovative systems that satisfy improved natural resource utilization and waste minimization criteria will be described as well as the R and D orientations of various partners. This document brings together the transparencies of 17 communications given at this workshop: general policy for transmutation and partitioning; Amster: a molten salt reactor (MSR) concept; MSR capabilities; potentials and capabilities of accelerator driven systems (ADS); ADS demonstrator interest as an experimental facility; innovative systems: gas coolant technologies; Pu management in EPR; scenarios with thorium fuel; scenarios at the equilibrium state; scenarios for transition; partitioning and specific conditioning; management of separated radio-toxic elements; European programs; DOE/AAA (Advanced Accelerator Applications) program; OECD scenario studies; CEA research programs and orientations; partitioning and transmutation: an industrial point of view. (J.S.)

  1. SCENARIO PLANNING AS LEARNING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Lourenço Junior

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Scenario Planning has been increasingly used, from its introduction to the decision process as effective tools to test decisions, and improve performance in a dynamic environment (Chermack, 2005. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the potential of an experimental Scenario Planning Model to mobilize, encourage and add more content to the organization’s decision making process – mainly with respect to Strategic Plans of two governmental institutions, a pharmaceutical company and a technology education foundation.  This study describes the application stages of a hybrid scenario-planning model – herein referred to as Planning as Learning – via action-research, showing the scenarios resulting from the experiment and describes the main results of an assessment of such practice. In order to do that, two well-established Scenario Planning models (Prospective school and Shell’s model were analyzed. They were used as a reference for the proposition and application of an experimental model in the two study objects. A questionnaire was used to assess the technique impact. It was possible to obtain high levels of reliability. In-depth interviews were also conducted with the participants. At the end, the results confirmed the model efficiency as a basis for decision making in the competitive environment in which the two institutions are inserted, also to encourage the learning process as a group, as observed throughout the work.

  2. Scenarios for Gluino Coannihilation

    CERN Document Server

    Ellis, John; Luo, Feng; Olive, Keith A

    2016-01-01

    We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in parti...

  3. Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ellis, John [Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology Group, Department of Physics, King’s College London, London, WC2R 2LS United Kingdom (United Kingdom); Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Evans, Jason L. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); Luo, Feng [Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Olive, Keith A. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States)

    2016-02-11

    We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses m{sub χ}≲8 TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly-mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.

  4. Regional climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Somot, S.

    2005-01-01

    Because studies of the regional impact of climate change need higher spatial resolution than that obtained in standard global climate change scenarios, developing regional scenarios from models is a crucial goal for the climate modelling community. The zoom capacity of ARPEGE-Climat, the Meteo-France climate model, allows use of scenarios with a horizontal resolution of about 50 km over France and the Mediterranean basin. An IPCC-A2 scenario for the end of the 21. century in France shows higher temperatures in each season and more winter and less summer precipitation than now. Tuning the modelled statistical distributions to observed temperature and precipitation allows us to study changes in the frequency of extreme events between today's climate and that at the end of century. The frequency of very hot days in summer will increase. In particular, the frequency of days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C will be multiplied by a factor of 10, on average. In our scenario, the Toulouse area and Provence might see one quarter of their summer days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C. (author)

  5. Anti-human neutrophil antigen-1a, -1b, and -2 antibodies in neonates and children with immune neutropenias analyzed by extracted granulocyte antigen immunofluorescence assay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onodera, Rie; Kurita, Emi; Taniguchi, Kikuyo; Karakawa, Shuhei; Okada, Satoshi; Kihara, Hirotaka; Fujii, Teruhisa; Kobayashi, Masao

    2017-11-01

    Anti-human neutrophil antigen (HNA) antibodies have been implicated in the development of neonatal alloimmune neutropenia (NAN) and autoimmune neutropenia (AIN). There are many conventional assay methods that detect anti-HNA antibodies. However, a method to measure multiple samples and detect several anti-HNA antibodies simultaneously is needed. We developed a new method, the extracted granulocyte antigen immunofluorescence assay (EGIFA), to analyze anti-HNA-1a, -1b, and -2 antibodies in sera. The results obtained by EGIFA were evaluated in comparison with those from several standard assay methods. Anti-HNA antibodies in serum samples from nine familial cases with suspected NAN (n = 19) and children with suspected AIN (n = 88) were also measured by EGIFA. The evaluation of nine serum samples with anti-HNA antibodies suggested that EGIFA demonstrated equivalent specificity and superior sensitivity to monoclonal antibody-specific immobilization of granulocyte antigens and had comparable sensitivity to the granulocyte indirect immunofluorescence test. EGIFA successfully detected anti-HNA-1a or -1b antibodies in seven of nine familial cases with suspected NAN. EGIFA detected anti-HNA antibodies in 40.9% of children with suspected AIN. Among them, isolated anti-HNA-1a or -1b antibody was detected in 4.5 or 12.5% of children, respectively, and anti-HNA-2 antibody was identified in 3.4% of children. The 30.8% (16 of 52) of children negative for anti-HNA antibody by EGIFA were positive for anti-HLA antibody. EGIFA facilitated the measurement of anti-HNA-1a, -1b, and/or -2 antibodies in sera. The prompt measurement of anti-HNA antibodies will improve the diagnosis and clinical management of patients with suspected NAN or AIN. © 2017 AABB.

  6. Local and regional low carbon scenarios methodology, challenges and opportunities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-01-01

    In its first part, this report discusses the emergence of local climate and energy policy in Europe, the implementation of nationally imposed but regionally anchored energy scenarios (i.e. in France, the Climate Air Energy Regional Schemes or SRCAE). Then it addresses the methodological and political aspects of local and regional low emission scenarios: methodologies and typologies of energy scenarios, ways to define an appropriate emission reduction and energy consumption objective, ways to deal with emission or carbon gaps, ways to make local emission inventories, ways to gather local data, ways to deal with special emission sources, ways to assess and develop local energy efficiency and renewable energy potentials, ways to take energy sufficiency into account, and the evolution from energy autonomy to 100% renewable energy territories. The last part addresses the issues of stake holder and citizen participation in the definition of long term strategies

  7. Particle reduction strategies - PAREST. Evaluation of emission reduction scenarios using chemical transport calculations. Traffic model TREMOD and traffic model TREMOVE. Sub-report.; Strategien zur Verminderung der Feinstaubbelastung - PAREST. Bewertung von Emissionsminderungsszenarien mit Hilfe chemischer Transportberechnungen. Verkehrsmodell TREMOD und Verkehrsmodell TREMOVE. Teilbericht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stern, Rainer [Freie Univ. Berlin (Germany). Inst. fuer Meteorologie, Troposphaerische Umweltforschung

    2013-06-15

    The calculation of transport emissions in PAREST project is made with traffic model TREMOD 4.17 (Transport Emission Model) used by the Federal Environment Agency based on the emission factors of HBEFA 2.1 (Handbook on Emission Factors for Road Traffic). For the PAREST reference scenario 2010-2020 (CLE scenario, ''current legislation'') TREMOD 4.17 was changed (TREMOD 4.17M) in such way that measures ''Introduction of Euro 5 and 6 limit levels for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles'', ''Introduction of a limit value stage Euro VI for heavy commercial vehicles'' and ''Existing truck tolls including promoting the purchase of low-emission heavy duty vehicles'' are integrated in the reference scenario and are no longer treated as an additional measure (Joerss et al., 2010). As an alternative to TREMOD 4.17M emission data sets were created for the project, in which the traffic emissions were calculated with the TREMOVE, version 2.7 (Kugler et al., 2010). TREMOVE is the traffic model used by the European Commission for the development of traffic scenarios. This report documents the differences between the immission distributions of PM10 and NO{sub 2}, resulting from the application of the European transport model. Considered are the reference 2005, which describes the current state for the year 2005 and the 2020 reference that describes the emission state in 2020 to be achieved. [German] Die Berechnung der Verkehrsemissionen erfolgt im PAREST-Projekt mit dem vom Umweltbundesamt verwendeten Verkehrsmodell TREMOD 4.17 (Transport Emission Model) auf der Grundlage der Emissionsfaktoren des HBEFA 2.1. Fuer das PAREST-Referenzszenario 2010-2020 (CLE-Szenario, ''current legislation'') wurde TREMOD 4.17 so veraendert (TREMOD 4.17M), dass die Massnahmen ''Einfuehrung der Grenzwertstufen Euro 5 und 6 fuer Pkw und leichte Nutzfahrzeuge'', &apos

  8. MIV Project: Mission scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravazzotti, Mariolina T.; Jørgensen, John Leif; Thuesen, Gøsta

    1997-01-01

    Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions.......Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions....

  9. Scenario group summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorndike, A.

    1976-01-01

    A scenario is given for ISABELLE which provides a plausible sequence of events from FY 1980 to 1990. No doubt reality will be quite different. The scenario is based on the construction schedule of the 1976 proposal. Assembly and testing of the accelerator will occur until the end of FY 1983, and the next six years will provide pp interactions for the initial high energy physics research. By 1990 any temporary conditions associated with start-up of ISABELLE should be a thing of the past and all experimental capabilities fully utilized

  10. Scenario group summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorndike, A.

    1976-01-01

    The scenario is given which provides a plausible sequence of events for ISABELLE from FY 1980 to 1990. No doubt reality will be quite different. The scenario is based on the construction schedule of the 1976 proposal. Assembly and testing of the accelerator will occur until the end of FY 1983, and the next six years will provide pp interactions for the initial high energy physics research. By 1990 any temporary conditions associated with start-up of ISABELLE should be a thing of the past and all experimental capabilities fully utilized

  11. Emergency exercise scenario tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sjoeblom, K.

    1998-03-01

    Nuclear power plant emergency exercises require a realistically presented accident situation which includes various aspects: plant process, radioactivity, radiation, weather and people. Experiences from nuclear power plant emergency exercises show that preparing accident scenarios even for relatively short exercises is tedious. In the future modern computer technology and past experience could be used for making exercise planning more effective. (au)

  12. HEALTH SCENARIO IN INDIA

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. HEALTH SCENARIO IN INDIA. Health Doctor / Hospital Infant expenditure 1000 beds / 1000 mortality / % GDP 1000. India 0.8 0.47 0.8 71. World 2.6 1.5 3.3 54. Developed 6.1 2.8 7.2 6 Countries.

  13. An economically reliable scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1996-01-01

    Mister Benjamin Dessus, director of the Ecotech programme at the Cnrs and author of the Noe scenario, describes his propositions for energy prospective, supported by an economic analysis. He advocates the energy diversification and the use of renewable energies. (N.C.). 1 ref., 1 tab

  14. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ostbo, Bruce I.; Oates, Don

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

  15. Energy-efficient houses. Scenarios, efforts and means of action with an emphasis on energy use and carbon dioxide emissions. Main Report of the KLIMATEK project 'The energy systems of the future in existing and new buildings - a higher level analysis emphasising status and scenarios'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gjaerde, Anne Cathrine; Livik, Klaus; Stene, Joern; Grinden, Bjoern; Tokle, Trude; Thyholt, Marit; Groenli, Morten

    1999-04-01

    The project referred to in the heading concentrated on energy use and carbon dioxide emissions relating to heating of houses in Norway. There are many ways of reducing energy use and carbon dioxide emissions, but the measures taken are often unprofitable because of high investment costs and relatively moderate energy prices. The development of society, environmental policy and technology strongly affects the development and management of the buildings, and this project could only elucidate a limited number of approaches of current interest. About 60% of the energy needed for heating houses comes from electricity, and the use of electricity for general purposes is increasing. Norway will probably become a major net importer of electric power within a few years unless strong measures are taken. Most of the carbon dioxide emission from buildings are due to oil fuel firing

  16. The UFE Prospective scenarios for energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-01-01

    After an overview of the French energy consumption in 2011 (final energy consumption, distribution of CO 2 emissions related to energy consumption), this Power Point presentation proposes graphs and figures illustrating UFE's prospective scenarios for energy demand. The objective is to foresee energy demand in 2050, to study the impact of possible actions on energy demand, and to assess the impact on greenhouse gas emissions. Hypotheses relate to demographic evolution, economic growth, energy intensity evolution, energy efficiency, and use transfers. Factors of evolution of energy demand are discussed: relationship between demography and energy consumption, new uses of electricity (notably with TICs), relationship between energy intensity and economic growth. Actions on demand are discussed. The results of different scenarios of technical evolution are presented

  17. Global climate-oriented transportation scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harvey, L.D.D.

    2013-01-01

    This paper develops scenarios whereby CO 2 emissions from the transportation sector are eliminated worldwide by the end of this century. Data concerning the energy intensity and utilization of different passenger and freight transportation modes in 2005, and per capita income, in 10 different socio-economic regions of the world are combined with scenarios of population and per capita GDP to generate scenarios of future transportation energy demand. The impact of various technical options (improvements in the energy intensity of all transportation modes, changes in the proportions of vehicles with different drive trains, and a shift to biomass or hydrogen for the non-electricity energy requirements) and behavioural options (a shift to less energy-intensive LDV market segments, a reduction in total passenger-km of travel per capita, and an increase in the share of less energy-intensive passenger and freight modes of transport) is assessed. To eliminate transportation fossil fuel emissions within this century while limiting the demand for electricity, biofuels or hydrogen to manageable levels requires the simultaneous application of all the technical and behavioural measures considered here, with improvements in vehicle efficiencies and a shift to plug-in hybrid and battery-electric drive trains for light duty vehicles being the most important measures. - Highlights: ► Scenarios are developed whereby transportation CO 2 emissions reach zero by 2100. ► These scenarios address concerns about peak oil and global warming. ► A comprehensive mix of technical and behavioural changes is considered in 10 world regions. ► Efficiency improvements and a shift to plug-in hybrid vehicles are the most important measures

  18. Scenario for large-scale implementation of CCS in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wildenborg, T.; Coussy, P.; Doukelis, A.; Ekström, C.; Georgiou, G.; Gkountanis, S.; Kramers, L.; Kuip, M. van der; Lindeberg, E.; Nordbø, Ø.; Serbutoviez, S.; Simonsson, D.

    2009-01-01

    In the CASTOR project funded by the EU and industry the emission reduction target for CO2 Capture and Storage (CCS) was set at 30% of the CO2 emissions from power plants in Europe, which is to be achieved during the first half of this century. The developed scenario shows that this target can be

  19. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    to a similar audience, namely the emissions scenario communities that are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. His focus is primarily on a set of concerns that need to be addressed if the new set of socio-economic and emissions scenario products are to adequately support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research. Pitcher flags issues associated with assessment and measurement of economic growth, challenges associated with downscaling long-term, global scenarios to finer geographic and time scales, and possible ways to grapple with probability and uncertainty in scenario analyses. Garb et al (2008) shift focus to the process aspects of scenarios, focusing on how scenarios simultaneously shape and embed their social contexts. They outline and give examples from a research agenda, drawing on concepts and methods from sociology, political science, and science and technology studies, aimed at redressing the growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the quantitative components of scenarios on the one hand, and the continued simplicity of our understandings of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled on the other. Focusing on the treatment of equity concerns in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, Baer (2009) offers a concrete example of how particular social assumptions and definitions of equity are built into scenarios which then create particular worldviews about rights and responsibilities. Baer argues that incorporating distributions of income within—and not only between—countries in quantitative scenario exercises makes visible questions regarding the assignment of rights and the distribution of costs and benefits; such equity considerations, he argues, are central to engendering the cooperation necessary to address the climate crisis. For Parson (2008

  20. Global emission projections for the transportation sector using dynamic technology modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, F.; Winijkul, E.; Streets, D. G.; Lu, Z.; Bond, T. C.; Zhang, Y.

    2014-06-01

    In this study, global emissions of gases and particles from the transportation sector are projected from the year 2010 to 2050. The Speciated Pollutant Emission Wizard (SPEW)-Trend model, a dynamic model that links the emitter population to its emission characteristics, is used to project emissions from on-road vehicles and non-road engines. Unlike previous models of global emission estimates, SPEW-Trend incorporates considerable detail on the technology stock and builds explicit relationships between socioeconomic drivers and technological changes, such that the vehicle fleet and the vehicle technology shares change dynamically in response to economic development. Emissions from shipping, aviation, and rail are estimated based on other studies so that the final results encompass the entire transportation sector. The emission projections are driven by four commonly-used IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2). With global fossil-fuel use (oil and coal) in the transportation sector in the range of 128-171 EJ across the four scenarios, global emissions are projected to be 101-138 Tg of carbon monoxide (CO), 44-54 Tg of nitrogen oxides (NOx), 14-18 Tg of non-methane total hydrocarbons (THC), and 3.6-4.4 Tg of particulate matter (PM) in the year 2030. At the global level, a common feature of the emission scenarios is a projected decline in emissions during the first one or two decades (2010-2030), because the effects of stringent emission standards offset the growth in fuel use. Emissions increase slightly in some scenarios after 2030, because of the fast growth of on-road vehicles with lax or no emission standards in Africa and increasing emissions from non-road gasoline engines and shipping. On-road vehicles and non-road engines contribute the most to global CO and THC emissions, while on-road vehicles and shipping contribute the most to NOx and PM emissions. At the regional level, Latin America and East Asia are the two

  1. Climate change impact and potential adaptation strategies under alternate realizations of climate scenarios for three major crops in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donatelli, Marcello; Srivastava, Amit Kumar; Duveiller, Gregory; Niemeyer, Stefan; Fumagalli, Davide

    2015-07-01

    This study presents an estimate of the effects of climate variables and CO2 on three major crops, namely wheat, rapeseed and sunflower, in EU27 Member States. We also investigated some technical adaptation options which could offset climate change impacts. The time-slices 2000, 2020 and 2030 were chosen to represent the baseline and future climate, respectively. Furthermore, two realizations within the A1B emission scenario proposed by the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), from the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 GCM, were selected. A time series of 30 years for each GCM and time slice were used as input weather data for simulation. The time series were generated with a stochastic weather generator trained over GCM-RCM time series (downscaled simulations from the ENSEMBLES project which were statistically bias-corrected prior to the use of the weather generator). GCM-RCM simulations differed primarily for rainfall patterns across Europe, whereas the temperature increase was similar in the time horizons considered. Simulations based on the model CropSyst v. 3 were used to estimate crop responses; CropSyst was re-implemented in the modelling framework BioMA. The results presented in this paper refer to abstraction of crop growth with respect to its production system, and consider growth as limited by weather and soil water. How crop growth responds to CO2 concentrations; pests, diseases, and nutrients limitations were not accounted for in simulations. The results show primarily that different realization of the emission scenario lead to noticeably different crop performance projections in the same time slice. Simple adaptation techniques such as changing sowing dates and the use of different varieties, the latter in terms of duration of the crop cycle, may be effective in alleviating the adverse effects of climate change in most areas, although response to best adaptation (within the techniques tested) differed across crops. Although a negative impact of climate

  2. Climate change impact and potential adaptation strategies under alternate realizations of climate scenarios for three major crops in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Donatelli, Marcello; Srivastava, Amit Kumar; Duveiller, Gregory; Niemeyer, Stefan; Fumagalli, Davide

    2015-01-01

    This study presents an estimate of the effects of climate variables and CO 2 on three major crops, namely wheat, rapeseed and sunflower, in EU27 Member States. We also investigated some technical adaptation options which could offset climate change impacts. The time-slices 2000, 2020 and 2030 were chosen to represent the baseline and future climate, respectively. Furthermore, two realizations within the A1B emission scenario proposed by the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), from the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 GCM, were selected. A time series of 30 years for each GCM and time slice were used as input weather data for simulation. The time series were generated with a stochastic weather generator trained over GCM-RCM time series (downscaled simulations from the ENSEMBLES project which were statistically bias-corrected prior to the use of the weather generator). GCM-RCM simulations differed primarily for rainfall patterns across Europe, whereas the temperature increase was similar in the time horizons considered. Simulations based on the model CropSyst v. 3 were used to estimate crop responses; CropSyst was re-implemented in the modelling framework BioMA. The results presented in this paper refer to abstraction of crop growth with respect to its production system, and consider growth as limited by weather and soil water. How crop growth responds to CO 2 concentrations; pests, diseases, and nutrients limitations were not accounted for in simulations. The results show primarily that different realization of the emission scenario lead to noticeably different crop performance projections in the same time slice. Simple adaptation techniques such as changing sowing dates and the use of different varieties, the latter in terms of duration of the crop cycle, may be effective in alleviating the adverse effects of climate change in most areas, although response to best adaptation (within the techniques tested) differed across crops. Although a negative impact of climate

  3. Particle reduction strategies - PAREST. Evaluation of emission reduction scenarios using chemical transport calculations. PM10- and PM2.5-reduction potentials by package of measures for further immission reduction in Germany. Sub-report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stern, Rainer

    2013-01-01

    This report documents the effects of additional emission control measures the PM10 and PM2.5 air quality in Germany (PM = particulate matter). The immission effects of the planned measures were calculated with the Chemistry-Aerosol-Transport Model REM CALGRID (RCG). [de

  4. Particle Reduction Strategies - PAREST. Evaluation of emission reduction scenarios using chemical transport calculations. NO2- and O3 reduction potentials of package of measures for further reduction of immissions in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stern, Rainer

    2013-01-01

    This report documents the effects of additional emission control measures the NO 2 - and ozone-air quality in Germany (PM = particulate matter). The immission effects of the planned measures were calculated with the Chemistry-Aerosol-Transport Model REM CALGRID (RCG). [de

  5. Hanford groundwater scenario studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnett, R.C.; Gephart, R.E.; Deju, R.A.; Cole, C.R.; Ahlstrom, S.W.

    1977-05-01

    This report documents the results of two Hanford groundwater scenario studies. The first study examines the hydrologic impact of increased groundwater recharge resulting from agricultural development in the Cold Creek Valley located west of the Hanford Reservation. The second study involves recovering liquid radioactive waste which has leaked into the groundwater flow system from a hypothetical buried tank containing high-level radioactive waste. The predictive and control capacity of the onsite Hanford modeling technology is used to evaluate both scenarios. The results of the first study indicate that Cold Creek Valley irrigationis unlikely to cause significant changes in the water table underlying the high-level waste areas or in the movement of radionuclides already in the groundwater. The hypothetical tank leak study showed that an active response (in this case waste recovery) can be modeled and is a possible alternative to passive monitoring of radionuclide movement in the unlikely event that high-level waste is introduced into the groundwater

  6. The Scenario Planning Paradox

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spaniol, Matthew Jon; Rowland, Nicholas James

    2017-01-01

    planning paradox. Contributing fresh theory supposedly attends to the “dismal” state of theory, while contributing new typologies purportedly helps bring order to methodological chaos. Repeated over time, the contribution strategy breaks down. Effort to resolve the theoretical and methodological issue......, foundational theoretical perspective in futures studies. Perceived chaos gives way to typologies, which, as they mount, contribute to the chaos they were meant to resolve. The end result, intended by no one, is that theory remains dismal and methods remain chaotic. This direction for the field is indefensible......For more than a decade, futures studies scholars have prefaced scholarly contributions by repeating the claim that there is insufficient theory to support chaotic scenario methodology. The strategy is formulaic, and the net effect is a curious one, which the authors refer to as the scenario...

  7. The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pitcher, Hugh M

    2009-01-01

    In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

  8. The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitcher, Hugh M.

    2009-04-01

    In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

  9. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-01-01

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially

  10. Franck-Condon factors perturbed by damped harmonic oscillators: Solvent enhanced X 1Ag ↔ A1B1u absorption and fluorescence spectra of perylene

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Chen-Wen; Zhu, Chaoyuan; Lin, Sheng-Hsien; Yang, Ling; Yu, Jian-Guo

    2014-01-01

    Damped harmonic oscillators are utilized to calculate Franck-Condon factors within displaced harmonic oscillator approximation. This is practically done by scaling unperturbed Hessian matrix that represents local modes of force constants for molecule in gaseous phase, and then by diagonalizing perturbed Hessian matrix it results in direct modification of Huang–Rhys factors which represent normal modes of solute molecule perturbed by solvent environment. Scaling parameters are empirically introduced for simulating absorption and fluorescence spectra of an isolated solute molecule in solution. The present method is especially useful for simulating vibronic spectra of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon molecules in which hydrogen atom vibrations in solution can be scaled equally, namely the same scaling factor being applied to all hydrogen atoms in polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. The present method is demonstrated in simulating solvent enhanced X 1 A g ↔ A 1 B 1u absorption and fluorescence spectra of perylene (medium-sized polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon) in benzene solution. It is found that one of six active normal modes v 10 is actually responsible to the solvent enhancement of spectra observed in experiment. Simulations from all functionals (TD) B3LYP, (TD) B3LYP35, (TD) B3LYP50, and (TD) B3LYP100 draw the same conclusion. Hence, the present method is able to adequately reproduce experimental absorption and fluorescence spectra in both gas and solution phases

  11. Successful ABO-Incompatible Renal Transplantation:  Blood Group A1B Donor Into A2B Recipient With Anti-A1 Isoagglutinins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fadeyi, Emmanuel A; Stratta, Robert J; Farney, Alan C; Pomper, Gregory J

    2016-08-01

    Transplantation of the blood group A2B in a recipient was successfully performed in the setting of receiving a deceased donor kidney from an "incompatible" A1B donor. The donor and recipient were both typed for ABO blood group, including ABO genotyping. The donor and recipient were tested for ABO, non-ABO, and human leukocyte antigen (HLA) antibodies. The donor and recipient were typed for HLA antigens, including T- and B-flow cytometry crossmatch tests. The recipient's RBCs were negative with A1 lectin, and immunoglobulin G anti-A1 was demonstrated in the recipient's plasma. The donor-recipient pair was a four-antigen HLA mismatch, but final T- and B-flow cytometry crossmatch tests were compatible. The transplant procedure was uneventful; the patient experienced immediate graft function with no episodes of rejection or readmissions more than 2 years later. It may be safe to transplant across the A1/A2 blood group AB mismatch barrier in the setting of low titer anti-A1 isoagglutinins without the need for pretransplant desensitization even if the antibody produced reacts with anti-human globulin. © American Society for Clinical Pathology, 2016. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  12. Ontario demand response scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowlands, I.H.

    2005-09-01

    Strategies for demand management in Ontario were examined via 2 scenarios for a commercial/institutional building with a normal summertime peak load of 300 kW between 14:00 and 18:00 during a period of high electricity demand and high electricity prices. The first scenario involved the deployment of a 150 kW on-site generator fuelled by either diesel or natural gas. The second scenario involved curtailing load by 60 kW during the same periods. Costs and benefits of both scenarios were evaluated for 3 groups: consumers, system operators and society. Benefits included electricity cost savings, deferred transmission capacity development, lower system prices for electricity, as well as environmental changes, economic development, and a greater sense of corporate social responsibility. It was noted that while significant benefits were observed for all 3 groups, they were not substantial enough to encourage action, as the savings arising from deferred generation capacity development do not accrue to individual players. The largest potential benefit was identified as lower prices, spread across all users of electricity in Ontario. It was recommended that representative bodies cooperate so that the system-wide benefits can be reaped. It was noted that if 10 municipal utilities were able to have 250 commercial or institutional customers engaged in distributed response, then a total peak demand reduction of 375 MW could be achieved, representing more than 25 per cent of Ontario's target for energy conservation. It was concluded that demand response often involves the investment of capital and new on-site procedures, which may affect reactions to various incentives. 78 refs., 10 tabs., 5 figs

  13. Demand scenarios, worldwide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schaefer, A [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    1996-11-01

    Existing methods are inadequate for developing aggregate (regional and global) and long-term (several decades) passenger transport demand scenarios, since they are mainly based on simple extensions of current patterns rather than causal relationships that account for the competition among transport modes (aircraft, automobiles, buses and trains) to provide transport services. The demand scenario presented in this paper is based on two empirically proven invariances of human behavior. First, transport accounts for 10 to 15 percent of household total expenditures for those owning an automobile, and around 5 percent for non-motorized households on average (travel money budget). Second, the mean time spent traveling is approximately one hour per capita per day (travel time budget). These two budgets constraints determine the dynamics of the scenario: rising income increases per capita expenditure on travel which, in turn, increase demand for mobility. Limited travel time constraints travelers to shift to faster transport systems. The scenario is initiated with the first integrated historical data set on traffic volume in 11 world regions and the globe from 1960 to 1990 for all major modes of motorized transport. World average per capita traffic volume, which was 1,800 kilometers in 1960 and 4,2090 in 1990, is estimated to rise to 7,900 kilometers in 2020 - given a modest average increase in Gross World Product of 1.9% per year. Higher economic growth rates in Asian regions result in an increase in regional per capita traffic volume up to a factor of 5.3 from 1990 levels. Modal splits continue shifting to more flexible and faster modes of transport. At one point, passenger cars can no longer satisfy the increasing demand for speed (i.e. rising mobility within a fixed time budget). In North America it is estimated that the absolute traffic volume of automobiles will gradually decline starting in the 2010s. (author) 13 figs., 6 tabs., 35 refs.

  14. Negatep: A Scenario for Combating Global Warming; Le scenario Negatep. Un scenario de lutte contre le rechauffement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P. [Sauvons Le Climat, 92 - Boulogne Billancourt (France)

    2011-07-15

    There have been an increasing number of foresight exercises in the field of energy and global warming in recent years, as we have seen from the articles devoted to these questions by Futuribles in 2011 (both in this special issue and in the April number). It is certainly the case that the goals for greenhouse-gas emission reduction are rather ambitious, particularly in France, it being the aim of the 2005 French framework law on energy to reduce carbon gas discharges by a factor of four. Among these scenarios, the Negatep scenario developed by Claude Acket and Pierre Bacher from the 'Sauvons le climat' [Let's save the climate] Association proposes to achieve this ('factor 4') goal in France by 2050 by reducing fossil fuel use by 75% and replacing this as quickly as possible with electricity produced from non-carbon-gas-emitting sources - chiefly, nuclear power and renewables. The authors lay out their goals here, backed up by figures, comparing these with the reference scenario. They also show the path that must be followed to arrive at these goals, particularly in the residential and tertiary sectors, and in transport and industry (through control of needs and recourse to alternative energy sources). They close by comparing the Negatep scenario with two other more recent scenarios aimed also at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, on the one hand in Europe, and on the other in Germany. The comparison confirms that they were right to rely on electricity as a substitute for oil, but gives them cause for concern in respect of the consequences (formidable in their view) that the replacement of nuclear power and coal energy by intermittent renewable energies might have in Europe, both with regard to costs and to the effects on the power network. (authors)

  15. Danish greenhouse gas reduction scenarios for 2020 and 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karlsson, K.; Joergensen, Kaj. (Risoe DTU, Roskilde (DK)); Werling, J.; OErsted Pedersen, H.; Kofoed-Wiuff, A. (Ea energy Analysis, Copenhagen (DK))

    2008-02-15

    The aim of the project presented in this report was to develop scenarios for reducing Danish greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and 2050. The scenarius provide a basis for estimating which technologies should be combined in order to obtain future reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in a cost-effective way. The scenarios include all emissions of greenhouse gases from agriculture, industry and oil extraction activities in the North Sea as well as the transport and energy sectors. Foreign air and sea carriage is not included because emissions related to such activities are not yet subject to international climate change agreements. The scenarios focus particularly on the technological possibilities and the necessary system changes in the Danish energy system and transport sector. Parallel to this, COWI has carried out analyses for the Danish Environmental Protection Agency focussing primarily on the reduction potentials in the transport sector and other emissions. COWI's results regarding agriculture and other emissions have been included in this analysis. Two timeframes are applied in the scenarios: the medium term, 2020, and the long term, 2050. For each timeframe, we have set up indicative targets that the scenarios must reach: 1) 2020: 30 and 40 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 2) 2050: 60 and 80 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990. The scenarios for 2020 focus primarily on technologies that are already commercially available, whereas the scenarios for 2050 also examine technological options at the experimental or developmental stage. This includes hydrogen technologies and fuel cells as well as CO{sub 2} capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies. The scenarios should be seen in connection with the EU objectives of a 20-30 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and 60-80 % in 2050 compared to 1990. The EU's 30 % objective is contingent upon global efforts to reduce the world's greenhouse gas

  16. Danish greenhouse gas reduction scenarios for 2020 and 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karlsson, K; Joergensen, Kaj [Risoe DTU, Roskilde (DK); Werling, J; OErsted Pedersen, H; Kofoed-Wiuff, A [Ea energy Analysis, Copenhagen (DK)

    2008-02-15

    The aim of the project presented in this report was to develop scenarios for reducing Danish greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and 2050. The scenarius provide a basis for estimating which technologies should be combined in order to obtain future reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in a cost-effective way. The scenarios include all emissions of greenhouse gases from agriculture, industry and oil extraction activities in the North Sea as well as the transport and energy sectors. Foreign air and sea carriage is not included because emissions related to such activities are not yet subject to international climate change agreements. The scenarios focus particularly on the technological possibilities and the necessary system changes in the Danish energy system and transport sector. Parallel to this, COWI has carried out analyses for the Danish Environmental Protection Agency focussing primarily on the reduction potentials in the transport sector and other emissions. COWI's results regarding agriculture and other emissions have been included in this analysis. Two timeframes are applied in the scenarios: the medium term, 2020, and the long term, 2050. For each timeframe, we have set up indicative targets that the scenarios must reach: 1) 2020: 30 and 40 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 2) 2050: 60 and 80 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990. The scenarios for 2020 focus primarily on technologies that are already commercially available, whereas the scenarios for 2050 also examine technological options at the experimental or developmental stage. This includes hydrogen technologies and fuel cells as well as CO{sub 2} capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies. The scenarios should be seen in connection with the EU objectives of a 20-30 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and 60-80 % in 2050 compared to 1990. The EU's 30 % objective is contingent upon global efforts to reduce the world's greenhouse gas emissions

  17. Rethinking the role of scenarios: Participatory scripting of low-carbon scenarios for France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mathy, Sandrine; Fink, Meike; Bibas, Ruben

    2015-01-01

    This article considers the usefulness of low-carbon scenarios in public decision-making. They may be useful as a product-oriented trajectory. The scenarios on the agenda of the 2013 Energy Debate in France belong to this category. But a scenario may also be process-oriented, in the sense that its scripting process helps build consensus and a minimum level of agreement. We have scripted scenarios using a codevelopment method, involving about 40 stakeholders from the private and public sectors, and from the state: NGOs, consumer groups, trade unions, banks and local authorities. They selected policies they considered acceptable for achieving 75% greenhouse gases emission reductions in 2050. These policies were then integrated in the Imaclim-R-France technico-economic simulation model, as part of a high or moderate acceptability scenario. In the first case emissions were cut by between 58% and 72% by 2050; in the second case by between 68% and 81%, depending on the energy price assumptions. All these measures benefited jobs and economic growth, swiftly and durably cutting household spending on energy services. This offers a solid basis for gaining acceptability for low carbon trajectories; the process constitutes also a framework for consolidating collective learning centering on the acceptability of climate policies. - Highlights: • The article develops a ‘process-oriented’ low carbon scenario for France. • Stakeholders define a set of sectoral and fiscal ‘acceptable’ climate policies. • These policies are integrated within a technico-economic model Imaclim-R-France. • Economic impacts and CO 2 emission reductions are computed. •The co-development methodology favors joint production of solutions and shared vision-building

  18. Investigating Future Climate Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dempsey, Chris; Bodzin, Alec; Anastasio, David; Sahagian, Dork; Cirucci, Lori

    2012-01-01

    One of the most alarming impacts of projected climate change is a significant rise in sea level. Sea level has varied by hundreds of meters over geologic time, yet these changes have generally been slow paced, allowing ecosystems to adjust to changing land surface and marine habitats. Since the Industrial Revolution, anthropogenic emissions have…

  19. Carbon-constrained scenarios. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-05-01

    This report provides the results of the study entitled 'Carbon-Constrained Scenarios' that was funded by FONDDRI from 2004 to 2008. The study was achieved in four steps: (i) Investigating the stakes of a strong carbon constraint for the industries participating in the study, not only looking at the internal decarbonization potential of each industry but also exploring the potential shifts of the demand for industrial products. (ii) Developing an hybrid modelling platform based on a tight dialog between the sectoral energy model POLES and the macro-economic model IMACLIM-R, in order to achieve a consistent assessment of the consequences of an economy-wide carbon constraint on energy-intensive industrial sectors, while taking into account technical constraints, barriers to the deployment of new technologies and general economic equilibrium effects. (iii) Producing several scenarios up to 2050 with different sets of hypotheses concerning the driving factors for emissions - in particular the development styles. (iv) Establishing an iterative dialog between researchers and industry representatives on the results of the scenarios so as to improve them, but also to facilitate the understanding and the appropriate use of these results by the industrial partners. This report provides the results of the different scenarios computed in the course of the project. It is a partial synthesis of the work that has been accomplished and of the numerous exchanges that this study has induced between modellers and stakeholders. The first part was written in April 2007 and describes the first reference scenario and the first mitigation scenario designed to achieve stabilization at 450 ppm CO 2 at the end of the 21. century. This scenario has been called 'mimetic' because it has been build on the assumption that the ambitious climate policy would coexist with a progressive convergence of development paths toward the current paradigm of industrialized countries: urban sprawl, general

  20. Efficient Maize and Sunflower Multi-year Mapping with NDVI Time Series of HJ-1A/1B in Hetao Irrigation District of Inner Mongolia, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, B.; Shang, S.

    2016-12-01

    Food shortage is one of the major challenges that human beings are facing. It is urgent to improve the monitoring of the plantation and distribution of the main crops to solve the following economic and social issues. Recently, with the extensive use of remote sensing satellite data, it has provided favorable conditions for crop identification in large irrigation district with complex planting structure. Difference of different crop phenology is the main basis for crop identification, and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time-series could better delineate crop phenology cycle. Therefore, the key of crop identification is to obtain high quality NDVI time-series. MODIS and Landsat TM satellite images are the most frequently used, however, neither of them could guarantee high temporal and spatial resolutions at once. Accordingly, this paper makes use of NDVI time-series extracted from China Environment Satellites data, which has two-day-repeat temporal and 30m spatial resolutions. The NDVI time-series are fitted with an asymmetric logistic curve, the fitting effect is good and the correlation coefficient is greater than 0.9. The phonological parameters are derived from NDVI fitting curves, and crop identification is carried out by different relation ellipses between NDVI and its phonological parameters of different crops. This paper takes Hetao Irrigation District of Inner Mongolia as an example, to identify multi-year maize and sunflower in the district, and the identification result is good. Compared with the official statistics, the relative errors are both lower than 5%. The results show that the NDVI time-series dataset derived from HJ-1A/1B CCD could delineate the crop phenology cycle accurately and demonstrate its application in crop identification in irrigated district.

  1. Scenarios for the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haegermark, H.; Bergmark, M.

    1995-06-01

    This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: 'Technology on the throne' (market rule/high growth); 'Intense competition' (market rule/low growth); 'Monopoly takes over' (political rule/high growth); and 'Green local society' (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

  2. Crisis and Crisis Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Øjvind

    2016-01-01

    This special issue of Nordicum-Mediterraneum contains select proceedings from the third meeting of the Nordic Summer University research circle called “Crisis and Crisis Scenarios: Normativity, Possibilities and Dilemmas”, held April 9th — 12th, 2015 at the Lysebu Conference Centre in Oslo, Norway....... The circle’s research program runs from 2014 to 2016 and is aimed at examining the concept of crisis as it is used today in academia and public discussion. In this collection of papers from the symposium we present some of the different ways in which the topic of the study group was addressed....

  3. Designing a Methodology for Future Air Travel Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wuebbles, Donald J.; Baughcum, Steven L.; Gerstle, John H.; Edmonds, Jae; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Krull, Nick; Metwally, Munir; Mortlock, Alan; Prather, Michael J.

    1992-01-01

    The growing demand on air travel throughout the world has prompted several proposals for the development of commercial aircraft capable of transporting a large number of passengers at supersonic speeds. Emissions from a projected fleet of such aircraft, referred to as high-speed civil transports (HSCT's), are being studied because of their possible effects on the chemistry and physics of the global atmosphere, in particular, on stratospheric ozone. At the same time, there is growing concern about the effects on ozone from the emissions of current (primarily subsonic) aircraft emissions. Evaluating the potential atmospheric impact of aircraft emissions from HSCT's requires a scientifically sound understanding of where the aircraft fly and under what conditions the aircraft effluents are injected into the atmosphere. A preliminary set of emissions scenarios are presented. These scenarios will be used to understand the sensitivity of environment effects to a range of fleet operations, flight conditions, and aircraft specifications. The baseline specifications for the scenarios are provided: the criteria to be used for developing the scenarios are defined, the required data base for initiating the development of the scenarios is established, and the state of the art for those scenarios that have already been developed is discussed. An important aspect of the assessment will be the evaluation of realistic projections of emissions as a function of both geographical distribution and altitude from an economically viable commercial HSCT fleet. With an assumed introduction date of around the year 2005, it is anticipated that there will be no HSCT aircraft in the global fleet at that time. However, projections show that, by 2015, the HSCT fleet could reach significant size. We assume these projections of HSCT and subsonic fleets for about 2015 can the be used as input to global atmospheric chemistry models to evaluate the impact of the HSCT fleets, relative to an all

  4. Making use of scenarios : supporting scenario use in product design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anggreeni, Irene

    2010-01-01

    The discipline of Scenario-Based Product Design (SBPD) guides the use of scenarios in a product design process. As concrete narratives, scenarios could facilitate making explicit how users would use the designed product in their activities, allowing usability studies to be an integrated part of the

  5. ILC Operating Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barklow, T.; Brau, J.; Fujii, K.; Gao, J.; List, J.; Walker, N.; Yokoya, K.; Collaboration: ILC Parameters Joint Working Group

    2015-06-15

    The ILC Technical Design Report documents the design for the construction of a linear collider which can be operated at energies up to 500 GeV. This report summarizes the outcome of a study of possible running scenarios, including a realistic estimate of the real time accumulation of integrated luminosity based on ramp-up and upgrade processes. The evolution of the physics outcomes is emphasized, including running initially at 500 GeV, then at 350 GeV and 250 GeV. The running scenarios have been chosen to optimize the Higgs precision measurements and top physics while searching for evidence for signals beyond the standard model, including dark matter. In addition to the certain precision physics on the Higgs and top that is the main focus of this study, there are scientific motivations that indicate the possibility for discoveries of new particles in the upcoming operations of the LHC or the early operation of the ILC. Follow-up studies of such discoveries could alter the plan for the centre-of-mass collision energy of the ILC and expand the scientific impact of the ILC physics program. It is envisioned that a decision on a possible energy upgrade would be taken near the end of the twenty year period considered in this report.

  6. Erosion scenarios for Wellenberg

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klemenz, W.

    1993-09-01

    The proposed Wellenberg site for a radioactive waste repository is located between Altzellen in the Engelberger valley and the Oberrickenbach valley, in a thick Valanginian marl series. The marl is generally overlaid with unconsolidated rocks but reaches to the surface in some places. In contrast to the situation in the Oberbauenstock region this marl complex is not protected by an overlying erosion resistant series and exhibits a marked relief. The question therefore arises with respect to the Wellenberg site, to what extent will the marl (i.e. the repository host rock formation) be removed by erosion processes during the 100,000 years interval under consideration and what overburden will remain at the end of this period. This report presents the results of an investigation of the longterm behaviour of the proposed site in respect of those processes of erosion and deposition which can lead to changes in the terrain surface and its location relative to the repository. A wide range of possible scenarios encompassing different developments of climatic conditions during the 100,000 year period of interest, was investigated. In addition to the continuation of the present climate and the occurrence of a new ice age on the scale of the Wuerm glaciation the consequences of altered climatic conditions on erosion removal of the repository overburden were considered. Within the 100,000 year period of interest none of the scenarios considered leads to the exposure of the repository. (author) figs., tabs, refs

  7. Useful global-change scenarios: current issues and challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parson, E A

    2008-01-01

    Scenarios are increasingly used to inform global-change debates, but their connection to decisions has been weak and indirect. This reflects the greater number and variety of potential users and scenario needs, relative to other decision domains where scenario use is more established. Global-change scenario needs include common elements, e.g., model-generated projections of emissions and climate change, needed by many users but in different ways and with different assumptions. For these common elements, the limited ability to engage diverse global-change users in scenario development requires extreme transparency in communicating underlying reasoning and assumptions, including probability judgments. Other scenario needs are specific to users, requiring a decentralized network of scenario and assessment organizations to disseminate and interpret common elements and add elements requiring local context or expertise. Such an approach will make global-change scenarios more useful for decisions, but not less controversial. Despite predictable attacks, scenario-based reasoning is necessary for responsible global-change decisions because decision-relevant uncertainties cannot be specified scientifically. The purpose of scenarios is not to avoid speculation, but to make the required speculation more disciplined, more anchored in relevant scientific knowledge when available, and more transparent.

  8. 40 Years of Shell Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-02-15

    Shell has been using scenario planning for four decades. During that time these scenarios have helped the company and governments across the world to make better strategic choices. Scenarios provide lenses that help see future prospects more clearly, make richer judgments and be more sensitive to uncertainties. Discover how the Shell Scenarios team has helped guide decision makers at major moments in history and get a peek at the team future focus, including the intricate relationship between energy, water and food.

  9. Climate mitigation scenarios of drained peat soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasimir Klemedtsson, Åsa; Coria, Jessica; He, Hongxing; Liu, Xiangping; Nordén, Anna

    2014-05-01

    The national inventory reports (NIR) submitted to the UNFCCC show Sweden - which as many other countries has wetlands where parts have been drained for agriculture and forestry purposes, - to annually emit 12 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalents, which is more GHG'es than industrial energy use release in Sweden. Similar conditions can be found in other northern countries, having cool and wet conditions, naturally promoting peat accumulation, and where land use management over the last centuries have promoted draining activities. These drained peatland, though covering only 2% of the land area, have emissions corresponding to 20% of the total reported NIR emissions. This substantial emission contribution, however, is hidden within the Land Use Land Use Change and Forestry sector (LULUCF) where the forest Carbon uptake is even larger, which causes the peat soil emissions become invisible. The only drained soil emission accounted in the Swedish Kyoto reporting is the N2O emission from agricultural drained organic soils of the size 0.5 million tonnes CO2e yr-1. This lack of visibility has made incentives for land use change and management neither implemented nor suggested, however with large potential. Rewetting has the potential to decrease soil mineralization, why CO2 and N2O emissions are mitigated. However if the soil becomes very wet CH4 emission will increase together with hampered plant growth. By ecological modeling, using the CoupModel the climate change mitigation potential have been estimated for four different land use scenarios; 1, Drained peat soil with Spruce (business as usual scenario), 2, raised ground water level to 20 cm depth and Willow plantation, 3, raised ground water level to 10 cm depth and Reed Canary Grass, and 4, rewetting to an average water level in the soil surface with recolonizing wetland plants and mosses. We calculate the volume of biomass production per year, peat decomposition, N2O emission together with nitrate and DOC

  10. Engaging Personas and Narrative Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lene

    2004-01-01

    design ideas. The concept of engaging personas and narrative scenario explores personas in the light of what what it is to identify with and have empathy with a character. The concept of narrative scenarios views the narrative as aid for exploration of design ideas. Both concepts incorporate...... a distinktion between creating, writing and reading. Keywords: personas, scenarios, user-centered design, HCI...

  11. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  12. Global climate change mitigation scenarios for solid waste management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Monni, S. [Benviroc Ltd, Espoo (Finland); Pipatti, R. [Statistics Finland, Helsinki (Finland); Lehtilae, A.; Savolainen, I.; Syri, S. [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo (Finland)

    2006-07-15

    The waste sector is an important contributor to climate change. CH{sub 4} produced at solid waste disposal sites contributes approximately 3.4 percent to the annual global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Emissions from solid waste disposal are expected to increase with increasing global population and GDP. On the other hand, many cost-efficient emission reduction options are available. The rate of waste degradation in landfills depends on waste composition, climate and conditions in the landfill. Because the duration of CH{sub 4} generation is several decades, estimation of emissions from landfills requires modelling of waste disposal prior to the year whose emissions are of interest. In this study, country- or region-specific first-order decay (FOD) models based on the 2006 IPCC Guidelines are used to estimate emissions from municipal solid waste disposal in landfills. In addition, IPCC methodology is used to estimate emissions from waste incineration. Five global scenarios are compiled from 1990 to 2050. These scenarios take into account political decision making and changes in the waste management system. In the Baseline scenario, waste generation is assumed to follow past and current trends using population and GDP as drivers. In the other scenarios, effects of increased incineration, increased recycling and increased landfill gas recovery on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are assessed. Economic maximum emission reduction potentials for these waste management options are estimated at different marginal cost levels for the year 2030 by using the Global TIMES model. Global emissions from landfills are projected to increase from 340 Tg CO{sub 2} eq in 1990 to 1500 Tg CO{sub 2} eq by 2030 and 2900 Tg CO{sub 2} eq by 2050 in the Baseline scenario. The emission reduction scenarios give emissions reductions from 5% (9%) to 21% (27%) compared to the Baseline in 2030 (2050). As each scenario considered one mitigation option, the results are largely additive, and

  13. From molecule to behavior: Brain aromatase (cyp19a1b) characterization, expression analysis and its relation with social status and male agonistic behavior in a Neotropical cichlid fish.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramallo, Martín R; Morandini, Leonel; Birba, Agustina; Somoza, Gustavo M; Pandolfi, Matías

    2017-03-01

    The enzyme aromatase, responsible for the conversion of C19 androgens to C18 estrogens, exists as two paralogue copies in teleost fish: Cyp19a1a mostly expressed in the gonads, referred as gonadal aromatase, and Cyp19a1b, mostly expressed in the brain, accordingly known as brain aromatase. The neural localization of Cyp19a1b is greatly contained within the social behavior network and mesolimbic reward system in fish, suggesting a strong role of estrogen synthesis in the regulation of social behavior. In this work we aimed to analyze the variation in cyp19a1b expression in brain and pituitary of males of a highly social cichlid, Cichlasoma dimerus (locally known as chanchita), and its relation with inter-individual variability in agonistic behavior in a communal social environment. We first characterized chanchita's cyp19a1b mRNA and deduced amino acid sequence, which showed a high degree of conservation when compared to other teleost brain aromatase sequences, and its tissue expression patterns. Within the brain, Cyp19a1b was solely detected at putative radial glial cells of the forebrain, close to the brain ventricles. We then studied the relative expression levels of cyp19a1b by Real Time PCR in the brain and pituitary of males of different social status, territorial vs. non-territorial, and its relationship with an index of agonistic behavior. We found that even though, brain aromatase expression did not differ between types of males, pituitary cyp19a1b expression levels positively correlated with the index of agonistic behavior. This suggests a novel role of the pituitary in the regulation of social behavior by local estrogen synthesis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Scenario development methodologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eng, T.; Hudson, J.; Stephansson, O.

    1994-11-01

    In the period 1981-1994, SKB has studied several methodologies to systematize and visualize all the features, events and processes (FEPs) that can influence a repository for radioactive waste in the future. All the work performed is based on the terminology and basic findings in the joint SKI/SKB work on scenario development presented in the SKB Technical Report 89-35. The methodologies studied are a) Event tree analysis, b) Influence diagrams and c) Rock Engineering Systems (RES) matrices. Each one of the methodologies is explained in this report as well as examples of applications. One chapter is devoted to a comparison between the two most promising methodologies, namely: Influence diagrams and the RES methodology. In conclusion a combination of parts of the Influence diagram and the RES methodology is likely to be a promising approach. 26 refs

  15. A comparison of the newest scenarios for energy supply in Switzerland and their results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schucan, T.H.

    1984-09-01

    The author defines an energy scenario and considers several such scenarios for Switzerland. A presentation of perspectives is given, followed by an analysis of the scenario. Remarks are made on the energy economy and on the environmental loading (specific emissions for heat pumps and block heat power stations, total emission for the year 2020 and radiation loading for people and plants in Switzerland). (A.N.K.)

  16. Country-Level Population and Downscaled Projections Based on the SRES B2 Scenario, 1990-2100

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Country-Level Population and Downscaled Projections Based on Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B2 Scenario, 1990-2100, were based on the UN 1998...

  17. 2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Blair, Nate [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lantz, Eric [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mulcahy, David [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Porro, Gian [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-07-16

    This report is one of several products resulting from an initial effort to provide a consistent set of technology cost and performance data and to define a conceptual and consistent scenario framework that can be used in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) future analyses. The long-term objective of this effort is to identify a range of possible futures of the U.S. electricity sector in which to consider specific energy system issues through (1) defining a set of prospective scenarios that bound ranges of key technology, market, and policy assumptions and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL’s market models to understand the range of resulting outcomes, including energy technology deployment and production, energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

  18. Efficient renewable energy scenarios study for Victoria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Armstrong, Graham

    1991-01-01

    This study examines the possible evolution of Victorian energy markets over the 1998-2030 period from technical, economic and environmental perspectives. The focus is on the technical and economic potential over the study period for renewable energy and energy efficiency to increase their share of energy markets, through their economic competitiveness with the non-renewables of oil, gas and fossil fulled electricity. The study identifies a range of energy options that have a lower impact on carbon dioxide emissions that current projections for the Victorian energy sector, together with the savings in energy, dollars and carbon dioxide emissions. In addition the macroeconomic implications of the energy paths are estimated. Specifically it examines a scenario (R-efficient renewable) where energy efficiency and renewable energy sources realise their estimated economic potential to displace non-renewable energy over the 1988-2030 period. In addition, a scenario (T-Toronto) is examined where energy markets are pushed somewhat harder, but again on an economic basis, so that what is called the Toronto target of reducing 1988 carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions by 20 per cent by 2005 is attained. It is concluded that over the next forty years there is substantial economic potential in Victoria for significant gains from energy efficiency in all sectors - residential, commercial, industrial and transport - and contributions from renewable energy both in those sectors and in electricity generations. 7 figs., 5 tabs

  19. Scenario planning and nanotechnological futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farber, Darryl; Lakhtakia, Akhlesh

    2009-01-01

    Scenario planning may assist us in harnessing the benefits of nanotechnology and managing the associated risks for the good of the society. Scenario planning is a way to describe the present state of the world and develop several hypotheses about the future of the world, thereby enabling discussions about how the world ought to be. Scenario planning thus is not only a tool for learning and foresight, but also for leadership. Informed decision making by experts and political leaders becomes possible, while simultaneously allaying the public's perception of the risks of new and emerging technologies such as nanotechnology. Two scenarios of the societal impact of nanotechnology are the mixed-signals scenario and the confluence scenario. Technoscientists have major roles to play in both scenarios.

  20. Strategic Scenario Construction Made Easy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    insights from the area of strategic forecasting (of which scenario planning is a proper subset) and experiences gained from a recent course in that area to develop a simpler, more direct, hands-on method for scenario construction and to provide several ideas for scenario construction that can be used......Scenario planning is a well-known way to develop corporate strategy by creating multiple images of alternative futures. Yet although scenario planning grew from very hands-on strategy development efforts in the military and from operations research dedicated to solving practical problems, the use...... of scenarios in business has, in many cases, remained a cumbersome affair. Very often a large group of consultants, employees and staff is involved in the development of scenarios and strategies, thus making the whole process expensive in terms of time, money and human resources. In response, this article uses...

  1. Assessment of Alternative Scenarios for CO2 Reduction Potential in the Residential Building Sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Young-Sun Jeong

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The South Korean government announced its goals of reducing the country’s CO2 emissions by up to 30% below the business as usual (BAU projections by 2020 in 2009 and 37% below BAU projections by 2030 in 2015. This paper explores the potential energy savings and reduction in CO2 emissions offered by residential building energy efficiency policies and plans in South Korea. The current and future energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the residential building were estimated using an energy–environment model from 2010 to 2030. The business as usual scenario is based on the energy consumption characteristic of residential buildings using the trends related to socio-economic prospects and the number of dwellings. The alternative scenarios took into account energy efficiency for new residential buildings (scenario I, refurbishment of existing residential buildings (scenario II, use of highly efficient boilers (scenario III, and use of a solar thermal energy system (scenario IV. The results show that energy consumption in the residential building sector will increase by 33% between 2007 and 2030 in the BAU scenario. Maximum reduction in CO2 emissions in the residential building sector of South Korea was observed by 2030 in scenario I. In each alternative scenario analysis, CO2 emissions were 12.9% lower than in the business as usual scenario by the year 2030.

  2. Atmospheric composition calculations for evaluation of climate scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krol, M.S.; Woerd, H.J. van der

    1994-01-01

    The future radiative forcing by non-CO 2 greenhouse gases depends strongly on the behavior of the OH radical, which represents the primary sink for CH 4 , CO and H(C)FCs in the atmosphere. The authors present a simple model to describe the changes in the concentration of the main greenhouse gases. The focus is on the description of the atmospheric chemistry of OH and the important tropospheric oxidant and greenhouse gas O 3 . Changes in the equilibrium concentrations of these oxidants will change the trends in the concentrations of greenhouse gases, especially CH 4 . The model is applied to the 1992 IPCC emissions scenarios, as well as to an IMAGE 2.0 scenario, based on 'Conventional Wisdom' assumptions. The following major results are found: for the central estimate of emissions assuming no additional policies (IS92a), the concentration of CH 4 keeps rising at rates similar to those observed over the last decades; results for the other IS92 scenarios range from stabilization early in the next century (IS92d) to an ever increasing rate of accumulation of CH 4 in the atmosphere (IS92f), even though these scenarios assume no policy interventions. The IMAGE 2.0 Conventional Wisdom scenario is similar to IS92a before the year 2025; afterwards the expansion of agricultural area significantly decreases the emissions of hydrocarbons and NO x from savanna burning, not represented in the IS92 scenarios. This leads to stable levels of atmospheric CH 4 after 2025

  3. Using energy scenarios to explore alternative energy pathways in California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghanadan, Rebecca; Koomey, J.G.

    2005-01-01

    This paper develops and analyzes four energy scenarios for California that are both exploratory and quantitative. The business-as-usual scenario represents a pathway guided by outcomes and expectations emerging from California's energy crisis. Three alternative scenarios represent contexts where clean energy plays a greater role in California's energy system: Split Public is driven by local and individual activities; Golden State gives importance to integrated state planning; Patriotic Energy represents a national drive to increase energy independence. Future energy consumption, composition of electricity generation, energy diversity, and greenhouse gas emissions are analyzed for each scenario through 2035. Energy savings, renewable energy, and transportation activities are identified as promising opportunities for achieving alternative energy pathways in California. A combined approach that brings together individual and community activities with state and national policies leads to the largest energy savings, increases in energy diversity, and reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Critical challenges in California's energy pathway over the next decades identified by the scenario analysis include dominance of the transportation sector, dependence on fossil fuels, emissions of greenhouse gases, accounting for electricity imports, and diversity of the electricity sector. The paper concludes with a set of policy lessons revealed from the California energy scenarios

  4. Nitrous Oxides Ozone Destructiveness Under Different Climate Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanter, David R.; McDermid, Sonali P.

    2016-01-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important greenhouse gas and ozone depleting substance as well as a key component of the nitrogen cascade. While emissions scenarios indicating the range of N2O's potential future contributions to radiative forcing are widely available, the impact of these emissions scenarios on future stratospheric ozone depletion is less clear. This is because N2O's ozone destructiveness is partially dependent on tropospheric warming, which affects ozone depletion rates in the stratosphere. Consequently, in order to understand the possible range of stratospheric ozone depletion that N2O could cause over the 21st century, it is important to decouple the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and compare different emissions trajectories for individual substances (e.g. business-as-usual carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions versus low emissions of N2O). This study is the first to follow such an approach, running a series of experiments using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences ModelE2 atmospheric sub-model. We anticipate our results to show that stratospheric ozone depletion will be highest in a scenario where CO2 emissions reductions are prioritized over N2O reductions, as this would constrain ozone recovery while doing little to limit stratospheric NOx levels (the breakdown product of N2O that destroys stratospheric ozone). This could not only delay the recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer, but might also prevent a return to pre-1980 global average ozone concentrations, a key goal of the international ozone regime. Accordingly, we think this will highlight the importance of reducing emissions of all major greenhouse gas emissions, including N2O, and not just a singular policy focus on CO2.

  5. 2014-2016 Mt. Etna Ground deformation imaged by SISTEM approach using GPS and SENTINEL-1A/1B TOPSAR data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonforte, Alessandro; Guglielmino, Francesco; Puglisi, Giuseppe

    2017-04-01

    In the frame of the EC FP7 MED-SUV project (call FP7 ENV.2012.6.4-2), and thanks to the GEO-GSNL initiative, GPS data and SENTINEL 1A/1B TOPSAR acquired on Mt. Etna between October 2014 and November 2016 were analyzed. The SENTINEL data were used in order to combine and integrate them with GPS, and detail the ground deformation recorded by GPS on Mt. Etna, during the last two-year's volcanic activity. The Sentinel data were processed by GAMMA software, using a spectral diversity method and a procedure able to co-register the SENTINEL pairs with extremely high precision (processing, a new software architecture based on the hypervisor virtualization technology for the x64 versions of Windows has been implemented. The DInSAR results are analysed and successively used as input for the time series analysis using the StaMPS package. On December 28, 2014 eruptive activity resumed at Mt. Etna with a fire fountain activity feeding two lava flows spreading on the eastern and south-western upper flanks of the volcano, producing evident deformation at the summit of the volcano. GPS displacements and Sentinel-1A ascending interferogram were calculated in order to image the ground deformation pattern accompanying the eruption. The ground deformation pattern has been perfectly depicted by the GPS network, mainly affecting the uppermost part of the volcano edifice, with a strong decay of the deformation, according to a very shallow and strong dyke intrusion. The Sentinel 1A SAR data, covering the similar time spanning, confirmed that most of displacements are related to the dike intrusion, and evidenced a local gravity-driven motion of the western wall of the Valle del Bove, probably related to the dike intrusion. To monitor the temporal successive evolution of ground deformation, we performed an A-DInSAR SENTINEL analysis using the Small BAseline Subset (SBAS) approach included with the StaMPS processing package. The April 2015-December 2015, SBAS Time series, shown a volcano

  6. Adaption strategies to the effect of climate change on a coastal area in Northwest Germany with different land management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graeff, Thomas; Krause, Stefan; Maier, Martin; Oswald, Sascha

    2015-04-01

    used as a third landuse scenario. A hydrological model that couples surface water and groundwater interactions is used. Several climate scenarios based on the IPCC emission scenarios are applied (A1B, A2 and B1 are used to cover an increase of future temperature between 1 and 3.5 K) in combination with three different heights of sea water level increase. Furthermore, the effectivity of the scenarios in respect to ecosystem services and economic efficiency are calculated. The business as usual scenario is able to guaranty the current farming strategy by coastal defences and prevention of inundation, but the cost intensive pumping rates increase. Areas with subsurface preferential pathways for groundwater to the land surface have the potential to be affected by salinization of groundwater, soil and drainages, without coastal defences to be able to prevent that. The large polder systems are able to buffer the increasing precipitation volumes to the price of losing 20 percent of the agriculture area and locally the creation of a completely different landscape. The polders are used effectively to store freshwater in summer periods and can actually also be used to prevent salinization. The stakeholder scenario with small distributed polders have a comparable effect with the benefit of preserving the original landscape and higher acceptance by the local residents, but with higher cost for more elaborate water resources management and maintenance.

  7. The German energetic future, comparison with the France Negatep scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P.

    2010-01-01

    As the Germans have decided to abandon nuclear energy, which today provides 23 % of their electricity, while fossil fuels provide 58%, the authors aim at answering two important questions. The first one is whether it is possible to cope without the non carbon nuclear energy while simultaneously reducing the CO 2 emissions. Considering the current level of German CO 2 emissions (over 9 tonnes per year per person), while the objective is to reach less than 2 tonnes per year by 2050, the second question is whether energy efficiency and renewable energies can be the solution. The authors present several scenarios meeting the overall emission objectives (a scenario dividing by two CO 2 emissions between 2008 and 2050, and eight scenarios aiming at five times less emissions in 2050 than in 2008), with different transition periods for nuclear energy. Since in all the scenarios, there is no nuclear left in 2050, they examine the energy balance in 2050 and point out the main characteristics of the German energy mix at that time. More figures can be found in the other version of this document (same title)

  8. The German energetic future, comparison with the France Negatep scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P.

    2011-01-01

    As the Germans have decided to abandon nuclear energy, which today provides 23 % of their electricity, while fossil fuels provide 58%, the authors aim at answering two important questions. The first one is whether it is possible to cope without the non carbon nuclear energy while simultaneously reducing the CO 2 emissions. Considering the current level of German CO 2 emissions (over 9 tonnes per year per person), while the objective is to reach less than 2 tonnes per year by 2050, the second question is whether energy efficiency and renewable energies can be the solution. The authors present several scenarios meeting the overall emission objectives (a scenario dividing by two CO 2 emissions between 2008 and 2050, and eight scenarios aiming at five times less emissions in 2050 than in 2008), with different transition periods for nuclear energy. Since in all the scenarios, there is no nuclear left in 2050, they examine the energy balance in 2050 and point out the main characteristics of the German energy mix at that time. Almost identical with another document with the same title, this version contains figures which are not present in the other one

  9. MIOSAT Mission Scenario and Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agostara, C.; Dionisio, C.; Sgroi, G.; di Salvo, A.

    2008-08-01

    MIOSAT ("Mssione Ottica su microSATellite") is a low-cost technological / scientific microsatellite mission for Earth Observation, funded by Italian Space Agency (ASI) and managed by a Group Agreement between Rheinmetall Italia - B.U. Spazio - Contraves as leader and Carlo Gavazzi Space as satellite manufacturer. Several others Italians Companies, SME and Universities are involved in the development team with crucial roles. MIOSAT is a microsatellite weighting around 120 kg and placed in a 525 km altitude sun-synchronuos circular LEO orbit. The microsatellite embarks three innovative optical payloads: Sagnac multi spectral radiometer (IFAC-CNR), Mach Zehender spectrometer (IMM-CNR), high resolution pancromatic camera (Selex Galileo). In addition three technological experiments will be tested in-flight. The first one is an heat pipe based on Marangoni effect with high efficiency. The second is a high accuracy Sun Sensor using COTS components and the last is a GNSS SW receiver that utilizes a Leon2 processor. Finally a new generation of 28% efficiency solar cells will be adopted for the power generation. The platform is highly agile and can tilt along and cross flight direction. The pointing accuracy is in the order of 0,1° for each axe. The pointing determination during images acquisition is <0,02° for the axis normal to the boresight and 0,04° for the boresight. This paper deals with MIOSAT mission scenario and definition, highlighting trade-offs for mission implementation. MIOSAT mission design has been constrained from challenging requirements in terms of satellite mass, mission lifetime, instrument performance, that have implied the utilization of satellite agility capability to improve instruments performance in terms of S/N and resolution. The instruments provide complementary measurements that can be combined in effective ways to exploit new applications in the fields of atmosphere composition analysis, Earth emissions, antropic phenomena, etc. The Mission

  10. The changing nutrition scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopalan, C

    2013-09-01

    The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and 'Green Revolution fatigue'. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and "hidden hunger" from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large.

  11. The changing nutrition scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C Gopalan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and ′Green Revolution fatigue′. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and "hidden hunger" from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large.

  12. Energy scenarios for New Zealand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harris, G. S.; Ellis, M. J.; Scott, G. C.; Wood, J. R.

    1977-10-15

    Three energy scenarios have been formulated for New Zealand. They concentrate on those aspects of society which have a direct bearing on energy, emphasizing three important issues: major shifts in society's values in relation to material wealth, pollution, and resources. The scenarios make assumptions that certain overall social conditions would prevail so that all decisions of government, the private sector, and individuals would be governed by the requirement to conform to the scenario theme in a way not possible under existing social and political conditions. The 3 scenarios are known as Continuation, Low New Zealand Pollution, and Limited Growth.

  13. Global Water Scarcity Assessment under Post-SRES Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanasaki, N.; Fujimori, S.

    2011-12-01

    A large number of future projections contributed to the fourth Assessment Report of IPCC were based on Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). Processes toward the fifth Assessment Report are under way, and post-SRES scenarios, called Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) are being prepared. One of the key challenges of SSP is provision of detailed socio-economic scenarios compared to SRES for impact, adaptation and vulnerability studies. In this study, a comprehensive global water scarcity assessment was conducted, using a state of the art global water resources model H08 (Hanasaki et al., 2008a, 2008b, 2010). We used a prototype of SSP developed by National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan. Two sets of socio economic scenarios and two sets of climate scenarios were prepared to run H08 for the period 2001-2100. Socio-economic scenarios include Business As Usual and High Mitigation Capacity. Climate scenarios include Reference and Mitigation which stabilizes green house gas concentration at a certain level. We analyzed the simulation results of four combinations, particularly focusing on the sensitivity of socio-economic scenarios to major water resources indices.

  14. Global energy scenarios, climate change and sustainable development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2003-01-01

    Energy scenarios provide a framework for exploring future energy perspectives, including various combinations of technology options and their implications. Many scenarios in the literature illustrate how energy system developments may affect global change. Examples are the new emissions scenarios by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the energy scenarios by the World Energy Assessment (WEA). Some of these scenarios describe energy futures that are compatible with sustainable development goals; such as improved energy efficiencies and the adoption of advanced energy supply technologies. Sustainable development scenarios are also characterized by low environmental impacts (at local, regional and global scales) and equitable allocation of resources and wealth. They can help explore different transitions toward sustainable development paths and alternative energy perspectives in general. The considerable differences in expected total energy requirements among the scenarios reflect the varying approaches used to address the need for energy services in the future and demonstrate effects of different policy frameworks, changes in human behavior and investments in the future, as well as alternative unfolding of the main scenario driving forces such as demographic transitions, economic development and technological change. Increases in research, development and deployment efforts for new energy technologies are a prerequisite for achieving further social and economic development in the world. Significant technological advances will be required, as well as incremental improvements in conventional energy technologies. In general, significant policy and behavioral changes will be needed during the next few decades to achieve more sustainable development paths and mitigate climate change toward the end of the century. (au)

  15. A negawatt scenario for 2005 - 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salomon, Thierry [Izuba Energies, Meze (France); Couturier, Christian [Solagro, Toulouse (France); Jedliczka, Marc [Hespul, Villeurbanne (France); Letz, Thomas [Asder, Chambery (France); Lebot, Benoit [United Nations Development Programme - Global Environment Facility Unit, New York (United States)

    2005-07-01

    The sad perspective of climate change combined with the foreseen depletion of fossil energy in the coming decades impose a radical change in the way we collect, transform, distribute, use and save energy in our modern economies. Over the past few years, many European Governments have made calls and announced plans to reduce by 60 to 80% their national Greenhouse Gas emissions by 2050. The present paper summarises the approach, the assumptions and the findings of a scenario performed by an multidisciplinary team for defining a sustainable energy path for a major European country. The scenario uniquely relies on three complementary steps: energy sufficiency, energy efficiency and renewable energy. The analysis clearly indicates the importance of engaging major energy conservation programmes now and in all sectors of the economy if we want to indeed influence greenhouse gas emissions in the medium and longer term. The paper describes and discusses the key policies that need to be put in place for each sector in the short term. The paper concludes on side benefits of renewed energy conservation efforts (like perspective on local employments) as well as the complementarities and the synergies of policies and measures between local, national and European levels.

  16. The 5-HT1A/1B-receptor agonist eltoprazine increases both catecholamine release in the prefrontal cortex and dopamine release in the nucleus accumbens and decreases motivation for reward and "waiting" impulsivity, but increases "stopping" impulsivity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Korte, S. Mechiel; Prins, Jolanda; van den Bergh, Filip S.; Oosting, Ronald S.; Dupree, Rudy; Korte-Bouws, Gerdien A. H.; Westphal, Koen G. C.; Olivier, Berend; Denys, Damiaan A.; Garland, Alexis; Güntürkün, Onur

    2017-01-01

    The 5-HT1A/1B-receptor agonist eltoprazine has a behavioral drug signature that resembles that of a variety of psychostimulant drugs, despite the differences in receptor binding profile. These psychostimulants are effective in treating impulsivity disorders, most likely because they increase

  17. Sustainable energy-economic-environmental scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2002-03-31

    IIASA's Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS) Project has proposed a quantitative 'working definition' of sustainable development E3 (energy-economic-environmental) scenarios. ECS has proposed four criteria for sustainability: economic growth is sustained throughout the time horizon; socioeconomic inequity among world regions is reduced over the 21st century; reserves-to-production (R/P) ratio for exhaustible primary energy resources do not decline; and long-term environmental stress is mitigated. Using these criteria, 40 long-term E3 scenarios generated by ECS models were reviewed and analyzed. Amongst the conclusions drawn were: slow population growth or stabilization of global population appears to be prerequisite for sustainable development; economic growth alone does not guarantee a sustainable future; carbon intensities of total primary energy must decrease faster than the historical trend; strategies for fossil fuel consumption must aim at non-decreasing R/P ratios; and carbon emissions must be near or below today's levels at the end of this century. The analysis of sustainable development scenarios is an important step towards formulating long-term strategies aimed at climate stabilization. 6 figs., 1 tab.

  18. Automated Analysis of Infinite Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buchholtz, Mikael

    2005-01-01

    The security of a network protocol crucially relies on the scenario in which the protocol is deployed. This paper describes syntactic constructs for modelling network scenarios and presents an automated analysis tool, which can guarantee that security properties hold in all of the (infinitely many...

  19. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Pereira, Henrique Miguel; Ferrier, Simon; Alkemade, J.R.M.; Acosta, Lilibeth A.; Resit Akcakaya, H.; Belder, den E.; Fazel, Asghar M.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harfoot, Mike; Harhash, Khaled A.; Harrison, Paula A.; Hauck, Jennifer; Hendriks, Rob J.J.; Hernández, Gladys; Jetz, Walter; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S.I.S.E.; Kim, Hyejin; King, Nicholas; Kok, Marcel; Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O.; Lazarova, Tanya; Leadley, Paul; Lundquist, Carolyn J.; García Márquez, Jaime; Meyer, Carsten; Navarro, Laetitia M.; Nesshöver, Carsten; Ngo, Hien T.; Ninan, Karachepone N.; Palomo, Maria G.; Pereira, Laura; Peterson, G.D.; Pichs, Ramon; Popp, Alexander; Purvis, Andy; Ravera, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo; Sathyapalan, Jyothis; Schipper, Aafke; Seppelt, Ralf; Settele, Josef; Sitas, Nadia; Vuuren, van D.

    2017-01-01

    Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship
    with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

  20. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Pereira, Henrique M.; Ferrier, Simon; Alkemade, Rob; Acosta, Lilibeth A.; Akcakaya, H. Resit; Den Belder, Eefje; Fazel, Asghar M.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harfoot, Mike; Harhash, Khaled A.; Harrison, Paula A.; Hauck, Jennifer; Hendriks, Rob J.J.; Hernández, Gladys; Jetz, Walter; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Sylvia I.; Kim, Hyejin; King, Nicholas; Kok, Marcel T.J.; Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O.; Lazarova, Tanya; Leadley, Paul; Lundquist, Carolyn J.; García Márquez, Jaime; Meyer, Carsten; Navarro, Laetitia M.; Nesshöver, Carsten; Ngo, Hien T.; Ninan, Karachepone N.; Palomo, Maria G.; Pereira, Laura M.; Peterson, Garry D.; Pichs, Ramon; Popp, Alexander; Purvis, Andy; Ravera, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo; Sathyapalan, Jyothis; Schipper, Aafke M.; Seppelt, Ralf; Settele, Josef; Sitas, Nadia; Van Vuuren, Detlef|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X

    2017-01-01

    Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

  1. Improving environmental change research with systematic techniques for qualitative scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schweizer, Vanessa Jine; Kriegler, Elmar

    2012-01-01

    Scenarios are key tools in analyses of global environmental change. Often they consist of quantitative and qualitative components, where the qualitative aspects are expressed in narrative, or storyline, form. Fundamental challenges in scenario development and use include identifying a small set of compelling storylines that span a broad range of policy-relevant futures, documenting that the assumptions embodied in the storylines are internally consistent, and ensuring that the selected storylines are sufficiently comprehensive, that is, that descriptions of important kinds of future developments are not left out. The dominant approach to scenario design for environmental change research has been criticized for lacking sufficient means of ensuring that storylines are internally consistent. A consequence of this shortcoming could be an artificial constraint on the range of plausible futures considered. We demonstrate the application of a more systematic technique for the development of storylines called the cross-impact balance (CIB) method. We perform a case study on the scenarios published in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), which are widely used. CIB analysis scores scenarios in terms of internal consistency. It can also construct a very large number of scenarios consisting of combinations of assumptions about individual scenario elements and rank these combinations in terms of internal consistency. Using this method, we find that the four principal storylines employed in the SRES scenarios vary widely in internal consistency. One type of storyline involving highly carbon-intensive development is underrepresented in the SRES scenario set. We conclude that systematic techniques like CIB analysis hold promise for improving scenario development in global change research. (letter)

  2. Energy scenarios: a prospective outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salomon, Thierry; Claustre, Raphael; Charru, Madeleine; Sukov, Stephane; Marignac, Yves; Fink, Meike; Bibas, Ruben; Le Saux, Gildas

    2011-01-01

    A set of articles discusses the use of energy scenarios: how useful they can be to describe a possible future and even to gather the involved actors, how they have been used in France in the past (for planning or prediction purposes, with sometimes some over-assessed or contradictory results, without considering any decline of nuclear energy, or by setting an impossible equation in the case of the Grenelle de l'Environnement), how the scenario framework impacts its content (depending on the approach type: standard, optimization, bottom-up, top-down, or hybrid). It also discusses the issue of choice of hypotheses on growth-based and de-growth-based scenarios, outlines how energy saving is a key for a sustainable evolution. Two German scenarios regarding electricity production (centralisation or decentralisation) and French regional scenarios for Nord-Pas-de-Calais are then briefly discussed

  3. Mediterranean energy transition: 2040 scenario. Executive summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ben Jannet Allal, Houda; Guarrera, Lisa; Karbuz, Sohbet; Menichetti, Emanuela; Lescoeur, Bruno; El Agrebi, Hassen; Harrouch, Hamdi; Campana, Dominique; Greaume, Francois; Bedes, Christelle; Bolinches, Christine; Meraud, Thierry; Tappero, Denis; Bosseboeuf, Didier; Lechevin, Bruno; Abaach, Hassan; Damasiotis, Markos; Darras, Marc; Hajjaji, Mourad; Keramane, Abdenour; Khalfallah, Ezzedine; Mourtada, Adel; Osman, Nejib

    2016-06-01

    The stakes of embarking upon a Mediterranean Energy Transition is essential for countries from both shores of the Mediterranean, especially taking into account the increasing demographics (+105 million by 2040) and the fast growing energy demand in an increasingly constrained context both in terms of energy availability and environmental impacts of conventional energy sources uses. There is a huge, but yet untapped, potential for energy efficiency and renewable energy sources, especially in the South Mediterranean region. By improving energy efficiency and deploying renewables on a large scale, the Mediterranean region would reduce tensions on energy security for importing countries, improve opportunities for exporting ones and reduce energy costs and environmental damages for the whole region. Embarking on an energy transition path will also help improve social welfare in the region and contribute to job creation, among other positive externalities. OME regularly conducts prospective works to 2040, assessing the impact of prolonging current energy trends. Under this Business-As-Usual or so-called 'Conservative' Scenario the situation would evolve critically on all counts over the next 25 years: doubling of energy demand and tripling of electricity consumption, soaring infrastructure and import bills (+443 GW to be installed and doubling of the fossil-fuel imports) and a critical rise in carbon emissions (+45%). Such a scenario, based essentially on fossil fuels, would put further strain on the environment and exacerbate geopolitical tensions in the region. A change of energy trajectory is therefore necessary for all Mediterranean countries to help change current trends and to increase efforts promoting energy efficiency and renewable energies. In this context, MEDENER and OME, based on the 2030-2050 visions of ADEME and the prospective tools of OME, have decided to jointly investigate a Mediterranean Energy Transition Scenario, an ambitious scenario that

  4. Dying scenarios improve recall as much as survival scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Kramer, Melanie E

    2014-01-01

    Merely contemplating one's death improves retention for entirely unrelated material learned subsequently. This "dying to remember" effect seems conceptually related to the survival processing effect, whereby processing items for their relevance to being stranded in the grasslands leads to recall superior to that of other deep processing control conditions. The present experiments directly compared survival processing scenarios with "death processing" scenarios. Results showed that when the survival and dying scenarios are closely matched on key dimensions, and possible congruency effects are controlled, the dying and survival scenarios produced equivalently high recall levels. We conclude that the available evidence (cf. Bell, Roer, & Buchner, 2013; Klein, 2012), while not definitive, is consistent with the possibility of overlapping mechanisms.

  5. Emission of formaldehyde from furniture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Helle Vibeke; Klinke, Helene B.; Funch, Lis Winther

    The emission of formaldehyde from 20 pieces of furniture, representing a variety of types, was measured in climate chambers. Most tests show low emissions but certain scenarios of furnishing, including furniture with large surface areas in relation to room volume can emit formaldehyde resulting...

  6. Kyoto Protocol Objectives in Croatia Energy Planning: Nuclear Scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duic, N.; Bogdan, Z.; Juretic, F.; Zeljko, M.

    2002-01-01

    Croatia as an Annex I country of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and a country that has pledged in the Annex B of the Kyoto Protocol to reduce its greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions by 5% from the pre-transition level by the budget period 2008-12, will have to envisage a new energy strategy. Compared to the energy consumption collapse in some transitional countries like Russia and Ukraine, Croatia has passed through a relatively limited long term reduction of GHG emissions since 1990 because of higher efficiency of its pre-transition economy. It is expected that in case of business as usual scenario it will breach the Kyoto target in 2003 since the demand for energy will be high, especially as the income continues to rise, particularly in domestic use for heating, for transport and for electricity generation. Several scenarios of developing energy system are compared from the point of view of GHG emissions. The energy sector that will most probably be the most influenced by the UNFCCC objectives is electricity generation. Several scenarios are compared. The cost-effective scenario expects a mixture of coal and gas fired power plants to be built to satisfy the new demand and to replace the old power plants that are being decommissioned. More Kyoto friendly scenario envisages the construction of mostly nuclear power plants in the future, while decommissioning the old ones as planned, and is compared to the others from the GHG emissions point of view. The conclusion is that by measures tackling only electricity generation it will not be possible to keep GHG emission under the Kyoto target level, but that choosing the nuclear option might reduce significantly the cost of compliance. (author)

  7. CO2 mitigation scenarios in China's road transport sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Can; Cai, Wenjia; Lu, Xuedu; Chen, Jining

    2007-01-01

    China is the world's second largest greenhouse gas emitter, and emissions from the road transport sector represent one of the fastest growing GHG sources in China. Taking previous research on China's projected future vehicle ownership and future CO 2 emissions in the transport sector as a starting point, this paper reviews all recent environmental policies relating to the automobile industry and employs a scenario analysis to estimate different emissions inventories for different development strategies. The new policy scenario considers all possible mitigation options available to the road transport sector from a bottom up perspective and examines the effects for fuel efficiency improvement and the cost of these mitigation options - vehicle technology improvement, bus rapid transit system and fuel switching, through which the carbon dioxide emissions reduction potential is estimated. Not only does this paper indicate that a large emissions reduction potential exists in China's road transport sector, but it implies that vehicle technology improvement, especially engine technology is likely to be the most effective means to meet emissions reduction targets. This paper concludes by identifying key barriers to implementing those options in China and deduces the technical, financial and institutional aspects of the demand in China for national capacity building and international aid in order to achieve the emissions reduction goals

  8. Energy scenarios for the nordic region towards 2035

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fidje, Audun

    2008-07-01

    This report summarizes the assumptions, methodology and main results of the MARKAL analysis of options for a sustainable energy future in the Nordic region. The work is based on the Nordic MARKAL model, which has been modified such that it may be used to analyse a large number of scenarios, typically 500 to 5000. The scenarios are developed by analysis a set of strategies and uncertainties. All these strategies and uncertainties are combined such that we generate in total 1 152 scenarios. The main purpose of generating a large number of scenarios was to facilitate for multi-criteria trade-off analysis. Overall results from this analysis show that large reductions of CO{sub 2} emissions are possible at CO{sub 2} cost below 50 EUR/t CO{sub 2} (author)

  9. Modeling biomass burning and related carbon emissions during the 21st century in Europe

    KAUST Repository

    Migliavacca, Mirco; Dosio, Alessandro; Camia, Andrea; Hobourg, Rasmus; Houston-Durrant, Tracy; Kaiser, Johannes W.; Khabarov, Nikolay; Krasovskii, Andrey A.; Marcolla, Barbara; San Miguel-Ayanz, Jesus; Ward, Daniel S.; Cescatti, Alessandro

    2013-01-01

    In this study we present an assessment of the impact of future climate change on total fire probability, burned area, and carbon (C) emissions from fires in Europe. The analysis was performed with the Community Land Model (CLM) extended with a prognostic treatment of fires that was specifically refined and optimized for application over Europe. Simulations over the 21st century are forced by five different high-resolution Regional Climate Models under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B. Both original and bias-corrected meteorological forcings is used. Results show that the simulated C emissions over the present period are improved by using bias corrected meteorological forcing, with a reduction of the intermodel variability. In the course of the 21st century, burned area and C emissions from fires are shown to increase in Europe, in particular in the Mediterranean basins, in the Balkan regions and in Eastern Europe. However, the projected increase is lower than in other studies that did not fully account for the effect of climate on ecosystem functioning. We demonstrate that the lower sensitivity of burned area and C emissions to climate change is related to the predicted reduction of the net primary productivity, which is identified as the most important determinant of fire activity in the Mediterranean region after anthropogenic interaction. This behavior, consistent with the intermediate fire-productivity hypothesis, limits the sensitivity of future burned area and C emissions from fires on climate change, providing more conservative estimates of future fire patterns, and demonstrates the importance of coupling fire simulation with a climate driven ecosystem productivity model.

  10. Modeling biomass burning and related carbon emissions during the 21st century in Europe

    KAUST Repository

    Migliavacca, Mirco

    2013-12-01

    In this study we present an assessment of the impact of future climate change on total fire probability, burned area, and carbon (C) emissions from fires in Europe. The analysis was performed with the Community Land Model (CLM) extended with a prognostic treatment of fires that was specifically refined and optimized for application over Europe. Simulations over the 21st century are forced by five different high-resolution Regional Climate Models under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B. Both original and bias-corrected meteorological forcings is used. Results show that the simulated C emissions over the present period are improved by using bias corrected meteorological forcing, with a reduction of the intermodel variability. In the course of the 21st century, burned area and C emissions from fires are shown to increase in Europe, in particular in the Mediterranean basins, in the Balkan regions and in Eastern Europe. However, the projected increase is lower than in other studies that did not fully account for the effect of climate on ecosystem functioning. We demonstrate that the lower sensitivity of burned area and C emissions to climate change is related to the predicted reduction of the net primary productivity, which is identified as the most important determinant of fire activity in the Mediterranean region after anthropogenic interaction. This behavior, consistent with the intermediate fire-productivity hypothesis, limits the sensitivity of future burned area and C emissions from fires on climate change, providing more conservative estimates of future fire patterns, and demonstrates the importance of coupling fire simulation with a climate driven ecosystem productivity model.

  11. Scenario analysis on future electricity supply and demand in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Qi; Ishihara, Keiichi N.; Mclellan, Benjamin C.; Tezuka, Tetsuo

    2012-01-01

    Under continuing policies of CO 2 emissions reduction, it is crucial to consider scenarios for Japan to realize a safe and clean future electricity system. The development plans for nuclear power and renewable energy - particularly solar and wind power - are being reconsidered in light of the Fukushima nuclear accident. To contribute to this, in the present study, three electricity supply scenarios for 2030 are proposed according to different future nuclear power development policies, and the maximum penetration of renewable energy generation is pursued. On the other side of the equation, three electricity demand scenarios are also proposed considering potential energy saving measures. The purpose of the study is to demonstrate quantitatively the technological, economic and environmental impacts of different supply policy selections and demand assumptions on future electricity systems. The scenario analysis is conducted using an input–output hour-by-hour simulation model subject to constraints from technological, economic and environmental perspectives. The obtained installed capacity mix, power generation mix, CO 2 emissions, and generation cost of the scenarios were inter-compared and analyzed. The penetration of renewable energy generation in a future electricity system in Japan, as well as its relationship with nuclear power share was uncovered. -- Highlights: ► Scenario analysis is conducted on future electricity systems under different supply policies and demand assumptions. ► Scenario analysis is conducted using a input–output hour-by-hour simulation model for real-time demand-supply balance. ► The technological, economic and environmental impacts of supply policies and demand assumptions on future electricity systems are studied. ► The maximum penetration of renewable energy generation is pursued in the scenario analysis using the hour-by-hour simulation. ► The relationship between the penetration levels of renewable energy and nuclear power

  12. Global warming factors modelled for 40 generic municipal waste management scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Thomas Højlund; Simion, F.; Tonini, Davide

    2009-01-01

    Global warming factors (kg CO2-eq.-tonne—1 of waste) have been modelled for 40 different municipal waste management scenarios involving a variety of recycling systems (paper, glass, plastic and organics) and residual waste management by landfilling, incineration or mechanical—biological waste...... treatment. For average European waste composition most waste management scenarios provided negative global warming factors and hence overall savings in greenhouse gas emissions: Scenarios with landfilling saved 0—400, scenarios with incineration saved 200—700, and scenarios with mechanical...

  13. Comparison of the results of climate change impact assessment between RCP8.5 and SSP2 scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, D. K.; Park, J. H.; Park, C.; Kim, S.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change scenarios are mainly published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and include SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario) scenarios (IPCC Third Report), RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios (IPCC 5th Report), and SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenarios. Currently widely used RCP scenarios are based on how future greenhouse gas concentrations will change. In contrast, SSP scenarios are that predict how climate change will change in response to socio-economic indicators such as population, economy, land use, and energy change. In this study, based on RCP 8.5 climate data, we developed a new Korean scenario using the future social and economic scenarios of SSP2. In the development of the scenario, not only Korea's emissions but also China and Japan's emissions were considered in terms of space. In addition, GHG emissions and air pollutant emissions were taken into consideration. Using the newly developed scenarios, the impacts assessments of the forest were evaluated and the impacts were evaluated using the RCP scenarios. The average precipitation is similar to the SSP2 scenario and the RCP8.5 scenario, but the SSP2 scenario shows the maximum value is lower than RCP8.5 scenario. This is because the SSP2 scenario simulates the summer precipitation weakly. The temperature distribution is similar for both scenarios, and it can be seen that the average temperature in the 2090s is higher than that in the 2050s. At present, forest net primary productivity of Korea is 693 tC/km2, and it is 679 tC/km2 when SSP2 scenario is applied. Also, the damage of forest by ozone is about 4.1-5.1%. On the other hand, when SSP2 scenario is applied, the forest net primary productivity of Korea is 607 tC/km2 and the forest net primary productivity of RCP8.5 scenario is 657 tC/km2. The analysis shows that the damage caused by climate change is reduced by 14.2% for the SSP2 scenario and 6.9% for the RCP8.5 scenario. The damage caused

  14. Methodological review of UK and international low carbon scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hughes, Nick; Strachan, Neil

    2010-01-01

    Scenarios have a long history in business, politics and military planning, as a tool for strategic planning to inform protective, proactive or consensus-based decision making in the face of uncertain futures. Recent years have seen a growth in scenarios for assessing the implications of low carbon futures, but relatively little work has linked these energy scenarios to the broader literature on scenario development. This paper undertakes a methodological review of a selection of UK and international low carbon scenario studies, using a typology of 'trend based', 'technical feasibility' and 'modelling' studies. Dominant methodologies in such studies have been the 2x2 axis and the 'back-casting' approach. Strengths of the studies reviewed include technological detail, and identification of key economic and social constraints. Weaknesses include the over-reliance on constructs such as exogenous emissions constraints, and high level trends, which diminish the ability to understand how the various future scenarios could be brought about or avoided. This is compounded by the lack of depiction of specific system actors; the tendency to abstract policy from the scenarios; and the resulting failure to consider policy, technology and behaviour in an iterative, 'co-evolving' fashion.

  15. Scenario Planning as Organizational Intervention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose; Nielsen, Bo Bernhard

    2017-01-01

    existing contributions on scenario planning within a new consolidating framework that includes antecedents, processes, and outcomes. The proposed framework allows for integration of the extant literature on scenario planning from a wide variety of fields, including strategic management, finance, human...... resource management, operations management, and psychology. Findings: This study contributes to research by offering a coherent and consistent framework for understanding scenario planning as a dynamic process. As such, it offers future researchers with a systematic way to ascertain where a particular......Purpose: This paper identifies four areas in need of future research to enhance our theoretical understanding of scenario planning, and sets the basis for future empirical examination of its effects on individual and organizational level outcomes. Design/methodology/approach: This paper organizes...

  16. Economic assessment of energetic scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grandjean, Alain; Bureau, Dominique; Schubert, Katheline; Henriet, Fanny; Maggiar, Nicolas; Criqui, Patrick; Le Teno, Helene; Baumstark, Luc; Crassous, Renaud; Roques, Fabien

    2013-09-01

    This publication gathers contributions proposed by different members of the Economic Council for a Sustainable Development (CEDD) on the issue of energy transition, and more precisely on scenarios elaborated with respect to energy transition. A first set of contributions addresses models of energy transition (assessment of scenario costs to reach a factor 4; the issue of de-carbonation of energy consumption; study of ELECsim, a tool to highlight costs of scenarios of evolution of the electric power system). The second part addresses arbitrations and choice assessment (the importance of social and economic impacts of scenarios; challenges related to the joint definition of the discount rate and of the evolution of carbon value in time; the issue of assessment of the integration of renewable energies into the power system)

  17. Italian energy scenarios: Markal model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gracceva, Francesco

    2005-01-01

    Energy scenarios carried out through formal models comply with scientific criteria such as internal coherence and transparency. Besides, Markal methodology allows a good understanding of the complex nature of the energy system. The business-as-usual scenario carried out through the Markal-Italy model shows that structural changes occurring in end-use sectors will continue to drive up energy consumption, in spite of the slow economic growth and the quite high energy prices [it

  18. Scenarios for remote gas production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tangen, Grethe; Molnvik, Mona J.

    2009-01-01

    The amount of natural gas resources accessible via proven production technology and existing infrastructure is declining. Therefore, smaller and less accessible gas fields are considered for commercial exploitation. The research project Enabling production of remote gas builds knowledge and technology aiming at developing competitive remote gas production based on floating LNG and chemical gas conversion. In this project, scenarios are used as basis for directing research related to topics that affect the overall design and operation of such plants. Selected research areas are safety, environment, power supply, operability and control. The paper summarises the scenario building process as a common effort among research institutes and industry. Further, it documents four scenarios for production of remote gas and outlines how the scenarios are applied to establish research strategies and adequate plans in a multidisciplinary project. To ensure relevance of the scenarios, it is important to adapt the building process to the current problem and the scenarios should be developed with extensive participation of key personnel.

  19. Deforestation scenarios for the Bolivian lowlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tejada, Graciela; Dalla-Nora, Eloi; Cordoba, Diana; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Ovando, Alex; Assis, Talita; Aguiar, Ana Paula

    2016-01-01

    all Bolivian lowlands reaching 37,944,434 ha and leaves small forest patches in a few PAs. These deforestation scenarios are not meant to predict the future but to show how current and future decisions carried out by the neo-extractivist practices of MAS government could affect deforestation and carbon emission trends. In this perspective, recognizing land use systems as open and dynamic systems is a central challenge in designing efficient land use policies and managing a transition towards sustainable land use. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. DGEMP-OE (2008) Energy Baseline Scenario. Synthesis report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    the CAS scenarios relies primarily on 2000 data, despite the existence of sufficiently complete statistics through to 2005. The DGEMP on the other hand used a study by the BIPE (Office for Economic Information and Forecasting) provided by the SESP, the Ministry for Ecology, Energy, Sustainable Development and Spatial Planning's economic statistics and forecasting department. On the basis of the study's macro-economic projections of the French economy to 2020, the DGEMP was able to re-evaluate the prospects for activity in the industrial and tertiary sectors. In several respects (e.g. supply security, CO 2 emissions, energy efficiency), the baseline scenario proposed here is clearly not a scenario conducive to satisfying French energy policy objectives. This is not a surprising conclusion in that it implies the need to implement new policies and measures in addition to those already in place or approved. In particular, this scenario would lead to importing 66 billion cubic meters of gas (59 Mtoe) in 2020 and 78 billion cubic meters (70 Mtoe) in 2030, compared with the present 44 billion cubic meters. In addition to the resulting CO 2 emissions, the near doubling of gas imports would pose a twofold problem as to the geographic origin of the gas imported (under appropriate supply contracts) and the infrastructure (LNG terminals, gas pipelines) required to transport it. Finally, the baseline scenario is of course a long way from achieving the Community targets, whether for CO 2 emissions, projected to rise continually until 2020 and then even faster until 2030 (due to transport and electric power generation), or for the share of renewable energy in the energy mix. In that regard, the share of renewable energy in 'enlarged' final energy consumption, as it is described in the 'energy and climate change package', would grow to 13.4% in 2020 (versus 23% in the Commission's burden sharing proposal) and to 13.7% in 2030, compared with the 10.3% share observed in 2006

  1. Modelling the role of nitrogen in acidification of Swedish lakes: future scenarios of acid deposition, climate change and forestry practices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moldan, Filip (Swedish Environmental Research Institute Ltd., Stockholm (Sweden)); Cosby, B. Jack (Dept. of Env. Sciences, Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA (United States)); Wright, Richard F. (Norwegian Inst. for Water Research, Kjelsas, Oslo (Norway))

    2009-12-15

    There are three major drivers that can cause future changes in lake water chemistry: air pollution, land use and climate change. In this report we used an extensive set of Swedish lakes sampled in 1995, 2000 and in 2005 to model future lake water chemistry under 5 different scenarios. The base case scenario represented deposition of air pollutants under current legislation (CLE); that is assuming that emissions of sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) will be reduced as currently agreed by the Gothenburg protocol, NEC directive and other legislation. After the agreed emission reductions were achieved, no further reduction in deposition was assumed and deposition was maintained constant up to year 2100. The base scenario assumed no change in current forestry practices and no climate change. A second other deposition scenario was based on maximum (technically) feasible emission reduction (MFR). The MFR scenario also did not assume change of either forestry practices or climate. A maximum biomass harvest was modelled (land use, LU, scenario), which entailed harvest of tree stems, slash and stumps. A scenario of climate change (CC) followed the IPCC A2 scenario downscaled to Sweden by SMHI. Finally climate change and land use were combined (CCLU scenario). The CC, LU and CCLU scenarios were driven by the 'current legislation' (CLE) deposition scenario for S and N deposition. The biogeochemical model MAGIC was used in this project, and scenarios were evaluated up to year 2100. Special attention was paid to the impact of the future scenarios on N leaching

  2. Scenario development methods and practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    The safe management of radioactive waste is an essential aspect of all nuclear power programmes. Although a general consensus has been reached in OECD countries on the use of geological repositories for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste, analysis of the long-term safety of these repositories, using performance assessment and other tools, is required prior to implementation. The initial stage in developing a repository safety assessment is the identification of all factors that may be relevant to the long-term safety of the repository and their combination to form scenarios. This must be done in a systematic and transparent way in order to assure the regulatory authorities that nothing important has been forgotten. Scenario development has become the general term used to describe the collection and organisation of the scientific and technical information necessary to assess the long-term performance or safety of radioactive waste disposal systems. This includes the identification of the relevant features, events and processes (FEPs), the synthesis of broad models of scientific understanding, and the selection of cases to be calculated. Scenario development provides the overall framework in which the cases and their calculated consequences can be discussed, including biases or shortcomings due to omissions or lack of knowledge. The NEA Workshop on Scenario Development was organised in Madrid, in May 1999, with the objective of reviewing developments in scenario methodologies and applications in safety assessments since 1992. The outcome of this workshop is the subject of this book. It is a review of developments in scenario methodologies based on a large body of practical experience in safety assessments. It will be of interest to radioactive waste management experts as well as to other specialists involved in the development of scenario methodologies. (author)

  3. Electrical-Generation Scenarios for China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kypreos, S.; Krakowski, R.A.

    2002-03-01

    The China Energy Technology Program (CETP) used both optimizing and simulation energy- economic-environmental (E3) models to assess tradeoffs in the electricity-generation sector for a range of fuel, transport, generation, and distribution options. The CETP is composed of a range of technical tasks or activities, including Energy Economics Modeling (EEM, optimizations), Electric Sector Simulation (ESS, simulations), Life Cycle Analyses (LCA, externalization) of energy systems, and Multi-Criteria Decision Analyses (MCDA, integration). The scope of CETP is limited to one province (Shandong), to one economic sector (electricity), and to one energy sector (electricity). This document describes the methods, approaches, limitations, sample results, and future/needed work for the EEM ( optimization-based modeling) task that supports the overall goal of CETP. An important tool used by the EEM task is based on a Linear Programming (LP) optimization model that considers 17 electricity-generation technologies utilizing 14 fuel forms (type, composition, source) in a 7-region transportation model of China's electricity demand and supply system over the period 2000-2030; Shandong is one of the seven regions modeled. The China Regional Electricity Trade Model (CRETM) is used to examine a set of energy-environment-economy E3-driven scenarios to quantify related policy implications. The development of electricity production mixes that are optimized under realistically E3 constraints is determined through regional demands for electricity that respond to exogenous assumptions on income (GDP) and electricity prices through respective time-dependent elasticities. Constraints are applied to fuel prices, transportation limits, resource availability, introduction (penetration) rates of specific technology, and (where applicable) to local, regional, and countrywide emission rates of CO{sub 2}, SO{sub 2} and NO{sub x}. Importantly, future inter- regional energy flows are optimized with

  4. Electricity planning in Japan by 2030 through scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishihara, Keiichi N.; Qi, Zhang; Mclellan, Benjamin C.; Tezuka, Tetsuo

    2013-01-01

    Under continuing policies of the mitigation of GHG (Green House Gases) emission, it is crucial to consider scenarios for Japan to realize a safe and clean future electricity system after the Fukushima nuclear accident. The development plans of nuclear power and renewable energy - mainly PV and wind power - need to be reconsidered. Therefore, in the present study, three electricity supply scenarios in 2030 are proposed according to different future nuclear power development strategies: (1) negative nuclear power; (2) conservative nuclear power; and (3) active pursuit of nuclear power. On the other side, three electricity demand scenarios are also proposed considering energy saving. The purpose of the study is to propose electricity supply systems with maximum renewable energy penetration under different nuclear power development strategies and demand situations through scenario analysis. The scenario analysis is conducted using an input-output hour-by-hour simulation model subject to constraints from technological, economic and environmental perspectives. The obtained installed capacity mix, power generation mix and CO 2 emissions of the scenarios were compared and analyzed with each other and with historical data. The results show that (1) penetration level of renewable energy is subject to the share of nuclear power as base load; (2) it is very difficult to remove nuclear power absolutely from the electricity system even when a high level of penetration of renewable energy is realized; (3) high level penetration of renewable energy can reduce the dependence on nuclear and thermal power, but there is a need for more flexible power sources to absorb fluctuations; (4) CO 2 emissions reduction compared to 1990 levels can be readily achieved with the help of renewable energy, nuclear power and energy saving in 2030. This is a revised version of the paper that was published in [1]. (author)

  5. Dose calculations for severe LWR accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Margulies, T.S.; Martin, J.A. Jr.

    1984-05-01

    This report presents a set of precalculated doses based on a set of postulated accident releases and intended for use in emergency planning and emergency response. Doses were calculated for the PWR (Pressurized Water Reactor) accident categories of the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) using the CRAC (Calculations of Reactor Accident Consequences) code. Whole body and thyroid doses are presented for a selected set of weather cases. For each weather case these calculations were performed for various times and distances including three different dose pathways - cloud (plume) shine, ground shine and inhalation. During an emergency this information can be useful since it is immediately available for projecting offsite radiological doses based on reactor accident sequence information in the absence of plant measurements of emission rates (source terms). It can be used for emergency drill scenario development as well

  6. Sustainable Low Carbon Transport Scenarios for India

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shukla, P.R.; Dhar, Subash; Mittal, Shivika

    2014-01-01

    and local air quality that can be accrued by mainstreaming climate change polices into national sustainable development goals and sectoral plans are also estimated. There is no silver bullet that would enable the transition towards low carbon transport. An optimal mix of policies that includes fuel economy...... standards, modal shifts and cleaner energy supply is required to align climate and sustainable development goals in the long-term....... are delineated that would facilitate the sustainable low carbon transformation of India’s transport sector. The long term energy and emission trajectory of India’s transport sector is assessed under alternate scenarios using the integrated assessment modelling framework. Co-benefits like energy security...

  7. Phasing out nuclear in Germany: scenarios of energy policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knopf, Brigitte; Pahle, Michael; Kondziella, Hendrik; Goetz, Mario; Bruckner, Thomas; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Stark, Hans; Rittelmeyer, Yann-Sven; Wissmann, Nele; Vitasse, Thomas

    2012-02-01

    After the German decision taken in 2011 to phase out nuclear, the authors analyse different scenarios of energy transition, and study the consequences of this phasing out in terms of energy needs provided by fossil fuel plants, of electricity price for households and for industries, and of CO 2 emissions. Independently from the development of renewable energies, the different effects of gas and coal plants replacing nuclear energy have been calculated and compared, and other possible scenarios have been explored. The author also discuss requirements in terms of governance for grid development, for a coordinated European policy of energy and climate, and for transparency and scientific follow-up

  8. Social Foundation of Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rowland, Nicholas James; Spaniol, Matthew Jon

    2017-01-01

    In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors acknowle......In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors...... from science and technology studies (STS) on knowledge production, the authors explain transition from one phase to the next and iteration between and within phases based on social negotiation. To this end, the authors examine the interplay between the “scenario development” phase and the “scenario use......” phase of a planning process with a non-governmental organization in Denmark. The upshot for facilitators is practical insight into how transition between phases and phase iteration in scenario planning can be identified, leveraged, and, thus, managed. The upshot for scholars is a related insight...

  9. Impact of Transmutation Scenarios on Fuel Transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saturnin, A.; Duret, B.; Allou, A.; Jasserand, F.; Fillastre, E.; Giffard, F.X.; Chabert, C.; Caron-Charles, M.; Garzenne, C.; Laugier, F.

    2015-01-01

    Minor actinides transmutation scenarios have been studied in the frame of the French Sustainable Radioactive Waste Management Act of 28 June 2006. Transmutation scenarios supposed the introduction of a sodium-cooled fast reactor fleet using homogeneous or heterogeneous recycling modes for the minor actinides. Americium, neptunium and curium (MA) or americium alone (Am) can be transmuted together in a homogeneous way embedded in FR-MOX fuel or incorporated in MA or Am-Bearing radial Blankets (MABB or AmBB). MA transmutation in Accelerator Driven System has also been studied while plutonium is being recycled in SFR. Assessments and comparisons of these advanced cycles have been performed considering technical and economic criteria. Transportation needs for fresh and used transmutation fuels is one of these criteria. Transmutation fuels have specific characteristics in terms of thermal load and neutron emissions. Thermal, radiation and criticality constraints have been taken into account in this study to suggest cask concepts for routine conditions of transport, to estimate the number of assemblies to be transported in a cask and the number of annual transports. Comparison with the no transmutation option, i.e. management of uranium and plutonium in SFRs, is also presented. Regarding these matters, no high difficulties appear for assemblies with limited content of Am (homogeneous or heterogeneous recycling modes). When fuels contain curium, technical transport uncertainties increase because of the important heat release requiring dividing fresh fuels and technological innovations development (MABB and ADS). (authors)

  10. Impacts of high energy prices on long-term energy-economic scenarios for Germany

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krey, V.; Markewitz, P. [Research Center Juelich, Inst. of Energy Res., Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation, Juelich (Germany); Horn, M. [DIW Berlin, Berlin (Germany); Matthes, C.; Graichen, V.; Harthan, R.O.; Repenning, J. [Oeko-Institut, Berlin (Germany)

    2007-05-15

    Prices of oil and other fossil fuels on global markets have reached a high level in recent years. These levels were not able to be reproduced on the basis of scenarios and prognoses that were published in the past. New scenarios, based on higher energy price trajectories, have appeared only recently. The future role of various energy carriers and technologies in energy-economic scenarios will greatly depend on the level of energy prices. Therefore, an analysis of the impact of high energy prices on long-term scenarios for Germany was undertaken. Based on a reference scenario with moderate prices, a series of consistent high price scenarios for primary and secondary energy carriers were developed. Two scenarios with (i) continuously rising price trajectories and (ii) a price shock with a price peak during the period 2010-15 and a subsequent decline to the reference level are analysed. Two types of models have been applied in the analysis. The IKARUS energy systems optimisation model covers the whole of the German energy system from primary energy supply down to the end-use sectors. Key results in both high price scenarios include a replacement of natural gas by hard coal and renewable energy sources in electricity and heat generation. Backstop technologies like coal liquefaction begin to play a role under such conditions. Up to 10% of final energy consumption is saved in the end-use sectors, with the residential and transport sector being the greatest contributors. Even without additional restrictions, CO{sub 2} emissions significantly drop in comparison to the reference scenario. The ELIAS electricity investment analysis model focuses on the power sector. In the reference scenario with current allocation rules in the emissions trading scheme, the CO{sub 2} emissions decrease relatively steadily. The development is characterised by the phaseout of nuclear energy which is counterweighted by the increase of renewable. In the high price scenario, the CO{sub 2

  11. vNet Zero Energy for Radio Base Stations- Balearic Scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sabater, Pere; Mihovska, Albena Dimitrova; Pol, Andreu Moia

    2016-01-01

    The Balearic Islands have one of the best telecommunications infrastructures in Spain, with more than 1500 Radio Base Stations (RBS) covering a total surface of 4.991,66 km². This archipelago has high energy consumption, with high CO2 emissions, due to an electrical energy production system mainly...... based on coal and fossil fuels which is not an environmentally sustainable scenario. The aim of this study is to identify the processes that would reduce the energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, designing a target scenario featuring "zero CO2 emissions" and "100% renewable energies" in RBS....... The energy costs, CO2 emissions and data traffic data used for the study are generated by a sample of RBS from the Balearic Islands. The results are shown in terms of energy performance for a normal and net zero emissions scenarios....

  12. New reactors concepts and scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gandini, A.

    2001-01-01

    In recent years an increasing interest is observed with respect to subcritical, accelerator driven systems (ADS), for their possible role in perspective future nuclear energy scenarios, as actinide (Pu and MA) incinerators, and/or claimed energy plants with potential enhanced safety characteristics. Important research programs are devoted to the various related fields of research. Extensive studies on the ADS behavior under incidental conditions are in particular made, for verifying their claimed advantage, under the safety point of view, with respect to the corresponding critical reactors. Corresponding medium and long range scenarios are being studied to cope with a number of concerns associated with the safety (power excursions. residual heat risk), as well as with the fuel flow (criticality accidents, fuel diversion, radiological risk, proliferation). In the present work we shall try to review current lines of research in this field, and comment on possible scenarios so far envisaged. (author)

  13. Scenarios of future energy intensities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    In this chapter, the authors present scenarios of potential change in energy intensities in the OECD countries and in the Soviet Union. These scenarios are meant to illustrate how intensities might evolve over the next 20 years given different conditions with respect to energy prices, energy-efficiency policies, and other key factors. Changes in intensity will also be affected by the rates of growth and stock turnover in each sector. They have not tried to forecast how activity levels and structure will evolve. However, the OECD scenarios assume a world in which GDP averages growth in the 2-3%/year range, with some differences among countries. For the Soviet Union, the degree and pace of intensity decline will be highly dependent on the success of the transition to a market economy; each scenario explicitly envisions a different degree of success. They have not constructed comparable scenarios for the developing countries. The scenarios presented in this chapter do not predict what will happen in the future. They believe, however, that they illustrate a plausible set of outcomes if energy prices, policies, programs, and other factors evolve as described in each case. With higher energy prices and vigorous policies and programs, intensities in the OECD countries in 2010 could be nearly 50% less on average than the level where trends seem to be point. In the former Soviet Union, a combination of rapid, successful economic reform and extra effort to improve energy efficiency might result in average intensity being nearly 40% less than in a slow reform case. And in the LDCs, a mixture of sound policies, programs, and energy pricing reform could also lead to intensities being far lower than they would be otherwise. 8 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab

  14. An analysis of long-term scenarios for the transition to renewable energy in the Korean electricity sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Nyun-Bae; Yun, Sun-Jin; Jeon, Eui-Chan

    2013-01-01

    This paper analyzes the energy, environmental and economic influences of three electricity scenarios in Korea by 2050 using the “Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system” (LEAP) model. The reference year was 2008. Scenarios include the baseline (BL), new governmental policy (GP) and sustainable society (SS) scenarios. The growth rate of electricity demand in the GP scenario was higher than that of the BL scenario while the growth rate in the SS scenario was lower than that of the BL scenario. Greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation in 2050 in the BL and GP scenarios were similar with current emissions. However, emissions in 2050 in the SS scenario were about 80% lower than emissions in 2008, because of the expansion of renewable electricity in spite of the phase-out of nuclear energy. While nuclear and coal-fired power plants accounted for most of the electricity generated in the BL and GP scenarios in 2050, the SS scenario projected that renewable energy would generate the most electricity in 2050. It was found that the discounted cumulative costs from 2009 to 2050 in the SS scenario would be 20 and 10% higher than that of the BL and GP scenarios, respectively. - Highlights: ► This paper analyzed three kinds of electricity scenarios in Korea by 2050 using LEAP model. Baseline and governmental policy scenarios focus on the electricity supply through nuclear expansion. ► Sustainable Society scenario focuses on demand management and renewable electricity. ► The latter improves energy security and reduces more GHG with the affordable cost.

  15. Scenario planning for the electricity generation in Indonesia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rachmatullah, C.; Aye, L.; Fuller, R.J.

    2007-01-01

    The long-term planning of a future electricity supply system requires data about future demand. Planners who use the conventional planning method forecast future demand by observing past trends or alternatively by developing scenarios and then selecting the scenarios considered to be the most likely to occur. This method, however, fails to include future uncertainties. To consider such uncertainties, the scenario planning method may be used. This study uses this method to devise a long-term electricity supply plan for the Java-Madura-Bali electricity system. It was found that the scenario planning method could save up to US$3.5 billion over a 15-year period of the method was applied right at the beginning of the period. In the case of the Java-Madura-Bali system, which currently has excess installed capacity, the scenario planning method does not provide such large benefits. It was also found that introducing integrated coal gasification combined cycle and advanced gas combined cycle units would reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the Java-Madura-Bali system by approximately 230 million tonnes or 15% compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario over a 15-year planning timeframe. The abatement cost was found to be US$4 per tonne of CO 2 . (author)

  16. Canada's energy future : reference case and scenarios to 2030

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    Energy is essential to the comfort and economic prosperity of Canadians. This report highlighted some of the issues that Canada faces with respect to its energy future. The report focused on emerging trends in energy supply and demand, and examined various energy futures that may be available to Canadians up to the year 2030. Three different scenarios were presented: (1) a continuing trends scenario; (2) a triple E scenario in which economic, environmental and energy objectives are balanced; and (3) a fortified islands scenario in which security concerns were coupled with international unrest and protectionist governments. The report determined that energy demand will remain a function of population and economic growth. Automobiles will continue to rely on fossil fuels. Energy efficiency will improve in relation to the effectiveness of government policies, and a move towards natural gas alternatives will occur. However, fossil fuels will remain a dominant source of energy supply. Oil sands production grew in all 3 of the evaluated scenarios. It is expected that total natural gas production will decline and imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) will increase. In all 3 scenarios greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions increased or only slightly declined. A full spectrum of GHG mitigation strategies will need to be implemented so that Canada can meet its target of a 20 per cent reduction in GHGs by 2020. It was concluded that effective policies are needed to optimize Canada's multiple objectives of economic growth, environment sustainability, and development of energy resources. 6 tabs., 118 figs

  17. Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2015-01-01

    Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries. PMID:26536124

  18. Scenario planning for the electricity generation in Indonesia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rachmatullah, C.; Aye, L.; Fuller, R.J. [The University of Melbourne, Victoria (Australia). Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, International Technologies Centre

    2007-04-15

    The long-term planning of a future electricity supply system requires data about future demand. Planners who use the conventional planning method forecast future demand by observing past trends or alternatively by developing scenarios and then selecting the scenarios considered to be the most likely to occur. This method, however, fails to include future uncertainties. To consider such uncertainties, the scenario planning method may be used. This study uses this method to devise a long-term electricity supply plan for the Java-Madura-Bali electricity system. It was found that the scenario planning method could save up to US$3.5 billion over a 15-year period of the method was applied right at the beginning of the period. In the case of the Java-Madura-Bali system, which currently has excess installed capacity, the scenario planning method does not provide such large benefits. It was also found that introducing integrated coal gasification combined cycle and advanced gas combined cycle units would reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the Java-Madura-Bali system by approximately 230 million tonnes or 15% compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario over a 15-year planning timeframe. The abatement cost was found to be US$4 per tonne of CO{sub 2}. (author)

  19. Long-term scenarios for global energy demand and supply. Four global greenhouse mitigation scenarios. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soerensen, B.; Meibom, P.; Kuemmel, B.

    1999-01-01

    The scenario method is used to investigate energy demand and supply systems for the 21st century. A geographical information system (GIS) is employed to assess the spatial match between supply and demand, and the robustness of the scenario against changes in assumptions is discussed, for scenarios using fossil fuels without carbon dioxide emissions, nuclear fuels with reduced accident and proliferation risks, and renewable energy from local and from more centralised installations: The year 2050 demand scenario is based on a very high goal satisfaction in all regions of the world, for the middle UN population projection. All energy efficiency measures that are technically ready and economic today are assumed in effect by year 2050. An increased fraction of total activities are assumed to occur in non-material sectors. Technical, economic and implementation issues are discussed, including the resilience to changes in particularly demand assumptions and the type of framework that would allow energy policy to employ any of (or a mix of) the scenario options. Results are presented as average energy flows per unit of land area. This geographically based presentation method gives additional insights, particularly for the dispersed renewable energy systems, but in all cases it allows to identify the need for energy transmission and trade between regions, and to display it in a visually suggestive fashion. The scenarios are examples of greenhouse mitigation scenarios, all characterised by near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. All are more expensive than the present system, but only if the cost of the negative impacts from the current system is neglected. As options for global energy policy during the next decades, the clean fossil and the renewable energy options (possibly in combination) are the only realistic ones, because the safe nuclear option requires research and development that most likely will take longer time, if it can at all be carried

  20. Long-term scenarios for global energy demand and supply. Four global greenhouse mitigation scenarios. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soerensen, B; Meibom, P [Technical Univ. of Denmark, Lyngby (Denmark); Kuemmel, B [Royal Agricultural and Veterinary Univ., Tastrup (Denmark)

    1999-01-01

    The scenario method is used to investigate energy demand and supply systems for the 21st century. A geographical information system (GIS) is employed to assess the spatial match between supply and demand, and the robustness of the scenario against changes in assumptions is discussed, for scenarios using fossil fuels without carbon dioxide emissions, nuclear fuels with reduced accident and proliferation risks, and renewable energy from local and from more centralised installations: The year 2050 demand scenario is based on a very high goal satisfaction in all regions of the world, for the middle UN population projection. All energy efficiency measures that are technically ready and economic today are assumed in effect by year 2050. An increased fraction of total activities are assumed to occur in non-material sectors. Technical, economic and implementation issues are discussed, including the resilience to changes in particularly demand assumptions and the type of framework that would allow energy policy to employ any of (or a mix of) the scenario options. Results are presented as average energy flows per unit of land area. This geographically based presentation method gives additional insights, particularly for the dispersed renewable energy systems, but in all cases it allows to identify the need for energy transmission and trade between regions, and to display it in a visually suggestive fashion. The scenarios are examples of greenhouse mitigation scenarios, all characterised by near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. All are more expensive than the present system, but only if the cost of the negative impacts from the current system is neglected. As options for global energy policy during the next decades, the clean fossil and the renewable energy options (possibly in combination) are the only realistic ones, because the safe nuclear option requires research and development that most likely will take longer time, if it can at all be carried

  1. A 'business-as-usual' energy scenario for France at the 2020 vista; Un scenario energetique tendanciel pour la France a l'horizon 2020

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giraud, P.N

    2000-01-01

    A 'business-as-usual' energy scenario is the most probable scenario where the energy demand follows the trends of the past and where no new energy policy is implemented. This work is a complement to the three contrasted energy scenarios built in 1998 by the 'Energy 2010-2020' prospective group of the French general commission of national development. The scenario built in this study is only a reference which allows the measure the efforts made to reach political goals. The main conclusion of this scenario is the increase of the CO{sub 2} emissions under the double effect of the economic growth and of the cessation of the nuclear program which becomes non-competitive with respect to the gas prices and actualization rates retained in the scenario. The main constraint of the energy future is incontestably the necessary fight against the greenhouse effect. (J.S.)

  2. Attributes Of Quality Scenarios/Scenario Sets Used In Software Requirements Elicitation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Braun, Kimberly

    1997-01-01

    .... This thesis examines scenarios used in software requirements elicitation. Many different definitions, formats, and ideas exist on scenarios, but no thorough work has been done on what makes a good, quality scenario and scenario set...

  3. Scenarios in tropical forest degradation: carbon stock trajectories for REDD+

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael B. de Andrade

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Human-caused disturbance to tropical rainforests—such as logging and fire—causes substantial losses of carbon stocks. This is a critical issue to be addressed in the context of policy discussions to implement REDD+. This work reviews current scientific knowledge about the temporal dynamics of degradation-induced carbon emissions to describe common patterns of emissions from logging and fire across tropical forest regions. Using best available information, we: (i develop short-term emissions factors (per area for logging and fire degradation scenarios in tropical forests; and (ii describe the temporal pattern of degradation emissions and recovery trajectory post logging and fire disturbance. Results Average emissions from aboveground biomass were 19.9 MgC/ha for logging and 46.0 MgC/ha for fire disturbance, with an average period of study of 3.22 and 2.15 years post-disturbance, respectively. Longer-term studies of post-logging forest recovery suggest that biomass accumulates to pre-disturbance levels within a few decades. Very few studies exist on longer-term (>10 years effects of fire disturbance in tropical rainforests, and recovery patterns over time are unknown. Conclusions This review will aid in understanding whether degradation emissions are a substantial component of country-level emissions portfolios, or whether these emissions would be offset by forest recovery and regeneration.

  4. Energy-environment scenarios for Senegal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lazarus, M. [Stockholm Environment Inst. Boston, MA (United States); Diallo, S.; Sokona, Y. [Environment and Development in the Third World, Dakar (Senegal)

    1994-06-01

    This paper explores the energy and environmental dimensions of proposed energy strategies for Senegal. We do so using a quantitative analytical framework, and begin to explore how useful such numerical methods can be in an African context. Based on past studies and the environmental database system, we develop a set of emission factors for use in Senegal. Finally, we address ways to integrate the often unquantifiable environmental and economics cost and benefits for environmentally informed decision making. In summary, we find that polices intended to promote the substitution of liquid petroleum gas (LPG) for charcoal in households can actually reduce greenhouse gas emissions while contributing to the improvement of more important near-term environmental problems. At the same time, the impacts of LPG substitution on increasing the oil import bill is relatively small when compared to other petroleum product usage.Improving end-use energy efficiency also shows promise, suggesting that new demand-side initiatives are needed. Overall, the integrated energy-environment scenario approach can reveal combined policy impacts that might otherwise be missed in a single project or policy approach. 13 figs, 5 tabs

  5. Program Analysis Scenarios in Rascal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.A. Hills (Mark); P. Klint (Paul); J.J. Vinju (Jurgen); F. Durán

    2012-01-01

    textabstractRascal is a meta programming language focused on the implementation of domain-specific languages and on the rapid construction of tools for software analysis and software transformation. In this paper we focus on the use of Rascal for software analysis. We illustrate a range of scenarios

  6. Scenario Based Network Infrastructure Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Thomas Phillip; Pedersen, Jens Myrup; Madsen, Ole Brun

    2005-01-01

    The paper presents a method for IT infrastructure planning that take into account very long term developments in usages. The method creates a scenario for a final, time independent stage in the planning process. The method abstracts relevant modelling factors from available information...

  7. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Rosa, IMD

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available & Evolution, vol. 1: 1416-1419 Multiscale scenarios for nature futures Rosa IMD Pereira HM Ferrier S Alkemade R Acosta LA Akcakaya HR den Belder E Fazel AM Fujimori S Sitas NE ABSTRACT: Targets for human development are increasingly...

  8. Mitochondrial genomic analysis of late onset Alzheimer's disease reveals protective haplogroups H6A1A/H6A1B: the Cache County Study on Memory in Aging.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Perry G Ridge

    Full Text Available Alzheimer's disease (AD is the most common cause of dementia and AD risk clusters within families. Part of the familial aggregation of AD is accounted for by excess maternal vs. paternal inheritance, a pattern consistent with mitochondrial inheritance. The role of specific mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA variants and haplogroups in AD risk is uncertain.We determined the complete mitochondrial genome sequence of 1007 participants in the Cache County Study on Memory in Aging, a population-based prospective cohort study of dementia in northern Utah. AD diagnoses were made with a multi-stage protocol that included clinical examination and review by a panel of clinical experts. We used TreeScanning, a statistically robust approach based on haplotype networks, to analyze the mtDNA sequence data. Participants with major mitochondrial haplotypes H6A1A and H6A1B showed a reduced risk of AD (p=0.017, corrected for multiple comparisons. The protective haplotypes were defined by three variants: m.3915G>A, m.4727A>G, and m.9380G>A. These three variants characterize two different major haplogroups. Together m.4727A>G and m.9380G>A define H6A1, and it has been suggested m.3915G>A defines H6A. Additional variants differentiate H6A1A and H6A1B; however, none of these variants had a significant relationship with AD case-control status.Our findings provide evidence of a reduced risk of AD for individuals with mtDNA haplotypes H6A1A and H6A1B. These findings are the results of the largest study to date with complete mtDNA genome sequence data, yet the functional significance of the associated haplotypes remains unknown and replication in others studies is necessary.

  9. Power generation scenarios for Nigeria: An environmental and cost assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gujba, H.; Mulugetta, Y.; Azapagic, A.

    2011-01-01

    Exploratory scenarios for the power sector in Nigeria are analysed in this paper using possible pathways within the Nigerian context and then compared against the Government's power expansion plan in the short to medium term. They include two fossil-fuel (FF and CCGT) and two sustainable-development-driven scenarios (SD1 and SD2). The results from the FF scenarios indicate this is the preferred outcome if the aim is to expand electricity access at the lowest capital costs. However, the annual costs and environmental impacts increase significantly as a consequence. The SD1 scenario, characterised by increased penetration of renewables, leads to a reduction of a wide range of environmental impacts while increasing the annual costs slightly. The SD2 scenario, also with an increased share of renewables, is preferred if the aim is to reduce GHG emissions; however, this comes at an increased annual cost. Both the SD1 and SD2 scenarios also show significant increases in the capital investment compared to the Government's plans. These results can be used to help inform future policy in the Nigerian electricity sector by showing explicitly the range of possible trade-offs between environmental impacts and economic costs both in the short and long terms. - Research Highlights: →The power sector in Nigeria is set to grow significantly in near future. →Power sector scenarios are constructed and studied using LCA and economic analysis methods and then compared against the Government's plans. →These include two fossil-fuel and two sustainable-development-driven scenarios. →The results explicitly show the trade-offs between environmental impacts and costs. →Following the fossil fuel paths will reduce capital costs but increase environmental impacts. The renewable energy paths will reduce some environmental impacts but increase the capital costs.

  10. Climate protection scenario 2050. Summary; Klimaschutzszenario 2050. Zusammenfassung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Repenning, Julia; Emele, Lukas [Oeko-Institut e.V. - Institut fuer Angewandte Oekologie, Berlin (Germany); Braungardt, Sibylle; Eichhammer, Wolfgang [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer System- und Innovationsforschung (ISI), Karlsruhe (Germany)

    2014-04-15

    The report on the meeting of the experts on modeling of the climate protection scenario 2050 summarizes the substantial results: 80-90% reduction the greenhouse gas emissions means a reduction of fossil energy carriers by up to 98%. The electricity generation industry has to provide most of the reduction since esp. agriculture cannot reduce the CO2 emissions. The amount of renewable energy for electricity production has to increase to about 95%. The economic analysis shows that a strategy of energy efficiency and electricity production from renewable energy sources plus product innovation is a no-regret strategy that will be advantageous for Germany in a long-term.

  11. Scenarios for the future - possible futures for climate and technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laramee de Tannenberg, Valery; Guillaume, Bertrand

    2012-01-01

    This bibliographical note presents a book in which the authors study different scenarios to challenge climate change. After having recalled reasons for this change, already made observations, and the emergence of a consensus on climate change (IPCC creation), they propose an assessment of greenhouse gas emissions and of the evolution of anthropogenic emissions, and then study the different scenarios proposed by the IEA. They discuss the various geo-engineering solutions (diffraction of solar radiation by microscopic particles dispersed in space, seawater ferrugination, city discolouring, extraction of CO 2 from the atmosphere) and outline the associated risks and hazards. Because of these associated risks, hazards and costs, they prefer solutions like the development of renewable energies, positive dwelling, evolution of transports, and carbon capture and storage

  12. Energy technology perspectives - scenarios and strategies to 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-11-03

    At their 2005 summit in Gleneagles, G8 leaders confronted questions of energy security and supply and lowering of CO{sub 2} emissions and decided to act with resolve and urgency. They called upon the International Energy Agency to provide advice on scenarios and strategies for a clean and secure energy future. Energy Technology Perspectives is a response to the G8 request. This work demonstrates how energy technologies can make a difference in a series of global scenarios to 2050. It reviews in detail the status and prospects of key energy technologies in electricity generation, buildings, industry and transport. It assesses ways the world can enhance energy security and contain growth in CO{sub 2} emissions by using a portfolio of current and emerging technologies. Major strategic elements of a successful portfolio are energy efficiency, CO{sub 2} capture and storage, renewables and nuclear power. 110 figs., 4 annexes.

  13. Energy technology perspectives: scenarios and strategies to 2050 [Russian version

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-07-01

    At their 2005 summit in Gleneagles, G8 leaders confronted questions of energy security and supply and lowering of CO{sub 2} emissions and decided to act with resolve and urgency. They called upon the International Energy Agency to provide advice on scenarios and strategies for a clean and secure energy future. Energy Technology Perspectives is a response to the G8 request. This work demonstrates how energy technologies can make a difference in a series of global scenarios to 2050. It reviews in detail the status and prospects of key energy technologies in electricity generation, buildings, industry and transport. It assesses ways the world can enhance energy security and contain growth in CO{sub 2} emissions by using a portfolio of current and emerging technologies. Major strategic elements of a successful portfolio are energy efficiency, CO{sub 2} capture and storage, renewables and nuclear power. 110 figs., 4 annexes.

  14. Projecting U.S. climate forcing and criteria pollutant emissions through 2050

    Science.gov (United States)

    Presentation highlighting a method for translating emission scenarios to model-ready emission inventories. The presentation highlights new features for spatially allocating emissions to counties and grid cells and identifies areas of potential improvement, such as updating tempor...

  15. PET-CT imaging with [18F]-gefitinib to measure Abcb1a/1b (P-gp) and Abcg2 (Bcrp1) mediated drug–drug interactions at the murine blood–brain barrier

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vlaming, Maria L.H.; Läppchen, Tilman; Jansen, Harm T.; Kivits, Suzanne; Driel, Andy van; Steeg, Evita van de; Hoorn, José W. van der; Sio, Charles F.; Steinbach, Oliver C.; DeGroot, Jeroen

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: The efflux transporters P-glycoprotein (P-gp, ABCB1) and breast cancer resistance protein (BCRP, ABCG2) are expressed at the blood–brain barrier (BBB), and can limit the access of a wide range of drugs to the brain. In this study we developed a PET-CT imaging method for non-invasive, quantitative analysis of the effect of ABCB1 and ABCG2 on brain penetration of the anti-cancer drug gefitinib, and demonstrated the applicability of this method for identification and quantification of potential modulators of ABCB1 and ABCB2 using the dual inhibitor elacridar. Methods: In vitro cellular accumulation studies with [ 14 C]-gefitinib were conducted in LLC-PK1, MDCKII, and the corresponding ABCB1/Abcb1a and ABCG2/Abcg2 overexpressing cell lines. Subsequently, in vivo brain penetration of [ 18 F]-gefitinib was quantified by PET-CT imaging studies in wild-type, Abcg2 −/− , Abcb1a/1b −/− , and Abcb1a/1b;Abcg2 −/− mice. Results: In vitro studies showed that [ 14 C]-gefitinib is a substrate of the human ABCB1 and ABCG2 transporters. After i.v. administration of [ 18 F]-gefitinib (1 mg/kg), PET-CT imaging showed 2.3-fold increased brain levels of [ 18 F]-gefitinib in Abcb1a/1b;Abcg2 −/− mice, compared to wild-type. Levels in single knockout animals were not different from wild-type, showing that Abcb1a/1b and Abcg2 together limit access of [ 18 F]-gefitinib to the brain. Furthermore, enhanced brain accumulation of [ 18 F]-gefitinib after administration of the ABCB1 and ABCG2 inhibitor elacridar (10 mg/kg) could be quantified with PET-CT imaging. Conclusions: PET-CT imaging with [ 18 F]-gefitinib is a powerful tool to non-invasively assess potential ABCB1- and ABCG2-mediated drug–drug interactions (DDIs) in vivo. Advances in knowledge and implications for patient care: This minimally-invasive, [ 18 F]-based PET-CT imaging method shows the interplay of ABCB1 and ABCG2 at the BBB in vivo. The method may be applied in the future to assess ABCB1 and

  16. Climate change scenarios and Technology Transfer Protocols

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kypreos, Socrates; Turton, Hal

    2011-01-01

    We apply a specific version of MERGE-ETL, an integrated assessment model, to study global climate policies supported by Technology Transfer Protocols (TTPs). We model a specific formulation of such a TTP where donor countries finance via carbon tax revenues, the diffusion of carbon-free technologies in developing countries (DCs) and quantify its benefits. Industrialized countries profit from increased technology exports, global diffusion of advanced technology (leading to additional technology learning and cost reductions) and reduced climate damages through the likelihood of greater global participation in a new international agreement. DCs experience increased welfare from access to subsidized technology, and profit from the reduction of damages related to climate change and expected secondary benefits of carbon abatement (such as reduced local and regional air pollution). The analysis identifies potential candidate technologies that could be supported under a TTP, and the impact of a TTP on economic development (including the flow of transfer subsidies) and global emissions. Although a TTP may encourage additional participation, such a proposal is only likely to be successful if an increased willingness to pay to avoid climate damages is accepted, first by the present and future generations of the industrialized world and later on, when sufficient economic growth is accumulated, by today's developing countries. - Research Highlights: → Climate policy scenarios are assessed with differentiated commitments in carbon emission control supported by Technology Transfer Protocols. → Donor countries finance, via carbon-tax revenues, the exports of carbon-free technologies in developing countries helping to get a new international agreement. → Developing countries experience increased welfare from access to subsidized technology, and profit from the reduction of damages related to climate change and secondary benefits. → Under Technology Protocols alone and

  17. Italian energy scenarios comparative evaluations; Scenari energetici italiani a confronto

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Contaldi, Mario [Agenzia per la Protezione dell' Ambiente e per i Servizi Tecnici-APAT, Roma (Italy)

    2005-09-15

    This paper reviews some representative scenarios of the evolution of the Italian primary energy consumption, updated recently. After an overview of the main macroeconomics assumptions the scenario results are cross checked at sectorial level, with a brief discussion of the underlining data and energy intensity trends. The emissions of CO{sub 2}, SO{sub 2} and NO{sub x} resulting from the considered scenarios are also reported and discussed. [Italian] Questo articolo riporta alcuni dei piu rappresentativi ed aggiornati scenari di evoluzione dei consumi energetici primari italiani. Dopo un esame delle principali variabili macroeconomiche i risultati degli scenari sono esaminati a livello di settore, con una breve discussione delle principali variabili utilizzate. Infine sono state anche esaminate le emissioni di CO{sub 2}, SO{sub 2} e NO{sub x} risultanti dai diversi scenari e le possibili conseguenze sul piano normativo.

  18. Energy systems and climate policy - Long-term scenarios for an uncertain future

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vuuren, D.P. van

    2007-01-01

    In this thesis various forms of scenario analysis are discussed both to explore 1) how energy system and associated greenhouse gas emissions may develop in the absence of climate policy and 2) how strategies aimed at drastically reducing greenhouse gas emissions may turn out. As uncertainties

  19. Polyethylene recycling: Waste policy scenario analysis for the EU-27.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreoni, Valeria; Saveyn, Hans G M; Eder, Peter

    2015-08-01

    This paper quantifies the main impacts that the adoption of the best recycling practices together with a reduction in the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the adoption of a kerbside collection system could have on the 27 Member States of the EU. The main consequences in terms of employment, waste management costs, emissions and energy use have been quantified for two scenarios of polyethylene (PE) waste production and recycling. That is to say, a "business as usual scenario", where the 2012 performances of PE waste production and recycling are extrapolated to 2020, is compared to a "best practice scenario", where the best available recycling practices are modelled together with the possible adoption of the amended Packaging and Packaging Waste Directive related to the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the implementation of a kerbside collection system. The main results show that socio-economic and environmental benefits can be generated across the EU by the implementation of the best practice scenario. In particular, estimations show a possible reduction of 4.4 million tonnes of non-recycled PE waste, together with a reduction of around €90 million in waste management costs in 2020 for the best practice scenario versus the business as usual scenario. An additional 35,622 jobs are also expected to be created. In environmental terms, the quantity of CO2 equivalent emissions could be reduced by around 1.46 million tonnes and the net energy requirements are expected to increase by 16.5 million GJ as a consequence of the reduction in the energy produced from waste. The main analysis provided in this paper, together with the data and the model presented, can be useful to identify the possible costs and benefits that the implementation of PE waste policies and Directives could generate for the EU. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli plain groundwater. Part I: An integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baruffi, F.; Cisotto, A.; Cimolino, A.; Ferri, M.; Monego, M.; Norbiato, D.; Cappelletto, M.; Bisaglia, M.; Pretner, A.; Galli, A.; Scarinci, A.; Marsala, V.; Panelli, C.; Gualdi, S.; Bucchignani, E.; Torresan, S.; Pasini, S.; Critto, A.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life + project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961–1990 and the projection period 2010–2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071–2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble

  1. Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli plain groundwater. Part I: An integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baruffi, F. [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Cisotto, A., E-mail: segreteria@adbve.it [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Cimolino, A.; Ferri, M.; Monego, M.; Norbiato, D.; Cappelletto, M.; Bisaglia, M. [Autorita di Bacino dei Fiumi dell' Alto Adriatico, Cannaregio 4314, 30121 Venice (Italy); Pretner, A.; Galli, A. [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Scarinci, A., E-mail: andrea.scarinci@sgi-spa.it [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Marsala, V.; Panelli, C. [SGI Studio Galli Ingegneria, via della Provvidenza 13, 35030 Sarmeola di Rubano (PD) (Italy); Gualdi, S., E-mail: silvio.gualdi@bo.ingv.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Bucchignani, E., E-mail: e.bucchignani@cira.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Torresan, S., E-mail: torresan@cmcc.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Pasini, S., E-mail: sara.pasini@stud.unive.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Calle Larga S. Marta 2137, 30123 Venice (Italy); Critto, A., E-mail: critto@unive.it [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce (Italy); Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, University Ca' Foscari Venice, Calle Larga S. Marta 2137, 30123 Venice (Italy); and others

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life + project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961-1990 and the projection period 2010-2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071-2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble produced

  2. Acoustic emission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nichols, R.W.

    1976-01-01

    The volume contains six papers which together provide an overall review of the inspection technique known as acoustic emission or stress wave emission. The titles are: a welder's introduction to acoustic emission technology; use of acoustic emission for detection of defects as they arise during fabrication; examples of laboratory application and assessment of acoustic emission in the United Kingdom; (Part I: acoustic emission behaviour of low alloy steels; Part II: fatigue crack assessment from proof testing and continuous monitoring); inspection of selected areas of engineering structures by acoustic emission; Japanese experience in laboratory and practical applications of acoustic emission to welded structures; and ASME acoustic emission code status. (U.K.)

  3. Exploring the reversibility of marine climate change impacts in temperature overshoot scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zickfeld, K.; Li, X.; Tokarska, K.; Kohfeld, K. E.

    2017-12-01

    Artificial carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere has been proposed as a measure for mitigating climate change and restoring the climate system to a `safe' state after overshoot. Previous studies have demonstrated that the changes in surface air temperature due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions can be reversed through CDR, while some oceanic properties, for example thermosteric sea level rise, show a delay in their response to CDR. This research aims to investigate the reversibility of changes in ocean conditions after implementation of CDR with a focus on ocean biogeochemical properties. To achieve this, we analyze climate model simulations based on two sets of emission scenarios. We first use RCP2.6 and its extension until year 2300 as the reference scenario and design several temperature and cumulative CO2 emissions "overshoot" scenarios based on other RCPs, which represents cases with less ambitious mitigation policies in the near term that temporarily exceed the 2 °C target adopted by the Paris Agreement. In addition, we use a set of emission scenarios with a reference scenario limiting warming to 1.5°C in the long term and two overshoot scenarios. The University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM), a climate model of intermediate complexity, is forced with these emission scenarios. We compare the response of select ocean variables (seawater temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen) in the overshoot scenarios to that in the respective reference scenario at the time the same amount of cumulative emissions is achieved. Our results suggest that the overshoot and subsequent return to a reference CO2 cumulative emissions level would leave substantial impacts on the marine environment. Although the changes in global mean sea surface variables (temperature, pH and dissolved oxygen) are largely reversible, global mean ocean temperature, dissolved oxygen and pH differ significantly from those in the reference scenario. Large ocean areas exhibit

  4. Base case and perturbation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edmunds, T

    1998-10-01

    This report describes fourteen energy factors that could affect electricity markets in the future (demand, process, source mix, etc.). These fourteen factors are believed to have the most influence on the State's energy environment. A base case, or most probable, characterization is given for each of these fourteen factors over a twenty year time horizon. The base case characterization is derived from quantitative and qualitative information provided by State of California government agencies, where possible. Federal government databases are nsed where needed to supplement the California data. It is envisioned that a initial selection of issue areas will be based upon an evaluation of them under base case conditions. For most of the fourteen factors, the report identities possible perturbations from base case values or assumptions that may be used to construct additional scenarios. Only those perturbations that are plausible and would have a significant effect on energy markets are included in the table. The fourteen factors and potential perturbations of the factors are listed in Table 1.1. These perturbations can be combined to generate internally consist.ent. combinations of perturbations relative to the base case. For example, a low natural gas price perturbation should be combined with a high natural gas demand perturbation. The factor perturbations are based upon alternative quantitative forecasts provided by other institutions (the Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration in some cases), changes in assumptions that drive the quantitative forecasts, or changes in assumptions about the structure of the California energy markets. The perturbations are intended to be used for a qualitative reexamination of issue areas after an initial evaluation under the base case. The perturbation information would be used as a "tiebreaker;" to make decisions regarding those issue areas that were marginally accepted or rejected under the base case. Hf a

  5. Advanced scenarios for ITER operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sips, A.C.C. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Plasmaphysik, Garching (Germany)

    2004-07-01

    In thermonuclear fusion research using magnetic confinement, the tokamak is the leading candidate for achieving conditions required for a reactor. An international experiment, ITER is proposed as the next essential and critical step on the path to demonstrating the scientific and technological feasibility of fusion energy. ITER is to produc