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Sample records for 5-year risk score

  1. Validation of a 5-year risk score of hip fracture in postmenopausal women. The Danish Nurse Cohort Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hundrup, Y A; Jacobsen, R K; Andreasen, A H;

    2010-01-01

    We evaluated the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) hip fracture risk score in 15,648 postmenopausal Danish nurses. The algorithm was well calibrated for Denmark. However, the sensitivity was poor at common decision making thresholds. Obtaining sensitivity better than 80% led to a low specificity...... of 61.4%. INTRODUCTION: A new score based on data from the WHI has been designed to predict 5-year risk of hip fracture in postmenopausal women. The performance of the algorithm has not been validated in populations with different lifestyle characteristics and ethnicity. The aim of this study...... predicted too many fractures in HT-users (12 observed, 22 expected) and too few in non HT-users (107 observed, 81 expected). CONCLUSIONS: While the WHI algorithm was well calibrated on the Danish population, the clinical utility of the WHI algorithm in Danish postmenopausal women was limited by poor...

  2. Validation of a 5-year risk score of hip fracture in postmenopausal women. The Danish Nurse Cohort Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hundrup, Y A; Jacobsen, R K; Andreasen, A H;

    2010-01-01

    We evaluated the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) hip fracture risk score in 15,648 postmenopausal Danish nurses. The algorithm was well calibrated for Denmark. However, the sensitivity was poor at common decision making thresholds. Obtaining sensitivity better than 80% led to a low specificity...

  3. Development and validation of a risk score predicting substantial weight gain over 5 years in middle-aged European men and women.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annika Steffen

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Identifying individuals at high risk of excess weight gain may help targeting prevention efforts at those at risk of various metabolic diseases associated with weight gain. Our aim was to develop a risk score to identify these individuals and validate it in an external population. METHODS: We used lifestyle and nutritional data from 53°758 individuals followed for a median of 5.4 years from six centers of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC to develop a risk score to predict substantial weight gain (SWG for the next 5 years (derivation sample. Assuming linear weight gain, SWG was defined as gaining ≥ 10% of baseline weight during follow-up. Proportional hazards models were used to identify significant predictors of SWG separately by EPIC center. Regression coefficients of predictors were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Pooled coefficients were used to assign weights to each predictor. The risk score was calculated as a linear combination of the predictors. External validity of the score was evaluated in nine other centers of the EPIC study (validation sample. RESULTS: Our final model included age, sex, baseline weight, level of education, baseline smoking, sports activity, alcohol use, and intake of six food groups. The model's discriminatory ability measured by the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64 (95% CI = 0.63-0.65 in the derivation sample and 0.57 (95% CI = 0.56-0.58 in the validation sample, with variation between centers. Positive and negative predictive values for the optimal cut-off value of ≥ 200 points were 9% and 96%, respectively. CONCLUSION: The present risk score confidently excluded a large proportion of individuals from being at any appreciable risk to develop SWG within the next 5 years. Future studies, however, may attempt to further refine the positive prediction of the score.

  4. Development and Validation of a Risk Score Predicting Substantial Weight Gain over 5 Years in Middle-Aged European Men and Women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steffen, Annika; Sørensen, Thorkild; Knüppel, Sven

    2013-01-01

    Identifying individuals at high risk of excess weight gain may help targeting prevention efforts at those at risk of various metabolic diseases associated with weight gain. Our aim was to develop a risk score to identify these individuals and validate it in an external population.......Identifying individuals at high risk of excess weight gain may help targeting prevention efforts at those at risk of various metabolic diseases associated with weight gain. Our aim was to develop a risk score to identify these individuals and validate it in an external population....

  5. Development and Validation of a Risk Score Predicting Substantial Weight Gain over 5 Years in Middle-Aged European Men and Women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steffen, Annika; Sørensen, Thorkild; Knüppel, Sven;

    2013-01-01

    Identifying individuals at high risk of excess weight gain may help targeting prevention efforts at those at risk of various metabolic diseases associated with weight gain. Our aim was to develop a risk score to identify these individuals and validate it in an external population....

  6. Genetic Risk Score of 46 Type 2 Diabetes Risk Variants Associates With Changes in Plasma Glucose and Estimates of Pancreatic beta-Cell Function Over 5 Years of Follow-Up

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, E. A.; Allin, K. H.; Sandholt, C. H.;

    2013-01-01

    study population was genotyped for 46 variants, and a genetic risk score was constructed. During a median follow-up of 11 years, 327 of 5,850 individuals developed diabetes. Physical examinations and oral glucose tolerance tests were performed at baseline and after 5 years (n = 3,727). The risk......More than 40 genetic risk variants for type 2 diabetes have been validated. We aimed to test whether a genetic risk score associates with the incidence of type 2 diabetes and with 5-year changes in glycemic traits and whether the effects were modulated by changes in BMI and lifestyle. The Inter99...... of incident type 2 diabetes was increased with a hazard ratio of 1.06 (95% CI 1.03-1.08) per risk allele. While the population in general had improved glucose regulation during the 5-year follow-up period, each additional allele in the genetic risk score was associated with a relative increase in fasting, 30...

  7. Do MCAT scores predict USMLE scores? An analysis on 5 years of medical student data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacqueline L. Gauer

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The purpose of this study was to determine the associations and predictive values of Medical College Admission Test (MCAT component and composite scores prior to 2015 with U.S. Medical Licensure Exam (USMLE Step 1 and Step 2 Clinical Knowledge (CK scores, with a focus on whether students scoring low on the MCAT were particularly likely to continue to score low on the USMLE exams. Method: Multiple linear regression, correlation, and chi-square analyses were performed to determine the relationship between MCAT component and composite scores and USMLE Step 1 and Step 2 CK scores from five graduating classes (2011–2015 at the University of Minnesota Medical School (N=1,065. Results: The multiple linear regression analyses were both significant (p<0.001. The three MCAT component scores together explained 17.7% of the variance in Step 1 scores (p<0.001 and 12.0% of the variance in Step 2 CK scores (p<0.001. In the chi-square analyses, significant, albeit weak associations were observed between almost all MCAT component scores and USMLE scores (Cramer's V ranged from 0.05 to 0.24. Discussion: Each of the MCAT component scores was significantly associated with USMLE Step 1 and Step 2 CK scores, although the effect size was small. Being in the top or bottom scoring range of the MCAT exam was predictive of being in the top or bottom scoring range of the USMLE exams, although the strengths of the associations were weak to moderate. These results indicate that MCAT scores are predictive of student performance on the USMLE exams, but, given the small effect sizes, should be considered as part of the holistic view of the student.

  8. Do MCAT scores predict USMLE scores? An analysis on 5 years of medical student data

    OpenAIRE

    Gauer, Jacqueline L.; Wolff, Josephine M.; Jackson, J. Brooks

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: The purpose of this study was to determine the associations and predictive values of Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) component and composite scores prior to 2015 with U.S. Medical Licensure Exam (USMLE) Step 1 and Step 2 Clinical Knowledge (CK) scores, with a focus on whether students scoring low on the MCAT were particularly likely to continue to score low on the USMLE exams.Method: Multiple linear regression, correlation, and chi-square analyses were performed to determi...

  9. Cardiovascular events in acromegaly: distinct role of Agatston and Framingham score in the 5-year prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ragonese, Marta; Alibrandi, Angela; Di Bella, Gianluca; Salamone, Ignazio; Puglisi, Soraya; Cotta, Oana Ruxandra; Torre, Maria Luisa; Ferrau, Francesco; Ruggeri, Rosaria Maddalena; Trimarchi, Francesco; Cannavo, Salvatore

    2014-09-01

    Prediction of ischemic cardiovascular events (ICE) in acromegalic patients stratified accordingly with Framingham (FS) and Agatston score (AS). 32 patients with active (group A (0)) and 20 with controlled (group B (0)) acromegaly have been enrolled. During the 5-year follow-up, 19 out of 32 patients in group A (0) reached disease control. At entry, FS and AS, by an eight-slice MDCT scanner, were calculated in all patients. ICE were diagnosed by autopsy, if lethal, and by electrocardiography and/or echocardiography, if non-lethal. Overall, 9.6 % of patients died for lethal ICE. AS >400, but not high FS at entry, was associated with increased risk of lethal ICE. Lethal ICE had occurred in two patients of group A (0) and three of group B (0) (p NS), while a non-lethal ICE had occurred in two cases of the former and in other two of the latter group (p NS). Either FS or AS was correlated with the risk for ICE overall (p 400 is associated with increased risk of lethal ICE, while high FS is associated with reduced life expectancy, regardless of disease control.

  10. Prediction of late distant recurrence after 5 years of endocrine treatment: a combined analysis of patients from the Austrian breast and colorectal cancer study group 8 and arimidex, tamoxifen alone or in combination randomized trials using the PAM50 risk of recurrence score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sestak, Ivana; Cuzick, Jack; Dowsett, Mitch; Lopez-Knowles, Elena; Filipits, Martin; Dubsky, Peter; Cowens, John Wayne; Ferree, Sean; Schaper, Carl; Fesl, Christian; Gnant, Michael

    2015-03-10

    We have previously shown that the PAM50-based risk of recurrence (ROR) score is significantly correlated with distant recurrence in both the translational research cohort within the Arimidex, Tamoxifen Alone or in Combination (ATAC) trial (TransATAC) and Austrian Breast and Colorectal Cancer Study Group 8 (ABCSG 8) randomized trials. Here, we focus on the ROR score for predicting distant recurrence after 5 years of follow-up in a combined analysis of these two randomized trials. Long-term follow-up data and tissue samples were obtained from 2,137 postmenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive early-stage breast cancer from the ABCSG 8 and TransATAC trials. We used Cox proportional hazard regression models to determine the prognostic value of ROR for distant recurrence beyond 5 years in the combined data set. A total of 2,137 women who did not have a recurrence 5 years after diagnosis were included in the combined analyses. The Clinical Treatment Score (CTS) was the strongest prognostic factor 5 years after diagnosis (univariable: likelihood ratio [LR] χ(2) = 94.12, bivariable: LR χ(2) = 61.43). The ROR score was significantly prognostic by itself in years 5 to 10. In the node-negative/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative subgroup, more prognostic value for late distant recurrence was added by the ROR score compared with the CTS. The ROR score added clinically meaningful prognostic information to the CTS in all patients and all subgroups in the late follow-up period. These results suggest that the ROR score may be helpful for separating patients into risk groups who could be spared or potentially benefit from extended hormonal therapy beyond 5 years of treatment. © 2014 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

  11. Timing and risk factors for clinical fractures among postmenopausal women: a 5-year prospective study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rinkens Paula ELM

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Many risk factors for fractures have been documented, including low bone-mineral density (BMD and a history of fractures. However, little is known about the short-term absolute risk (AR of fractures and the timing of clinical fractures. Therefore, we assessed the risk and timing of incident clinical fractures, expressed as 5-year AR, in postmenopausal women. Methods In total, 10 general practice centres participated in this population-based prospective study. Five years after a baseline assessment, which included clinical risk factor evaluation and BMD measurement, 759 postmenopausal women aged between 50 and 80 years, were re-examined, including undergoing an evaluation of clinical fractures after menopause. Risk factors for incident fractures at baseline that were significant in univariate analyses were included in a multivariate Cox survival regression analysis. The significant determinants were used to construct algorithms. Results In the total group, 12.5% (95% confidence interval (CI 10.1–14.9 of the women experienced a new clinical fracture. A previous clinical fracture after menopause and a low BMD (T-score Conclusion In postmenopausal women, clinical fractures cluster in time. One in two women with a recent clinical fracture had a new clinical fracture within 5 years, regardless of BMD. The 5-year AR for a first clinical fracture was much lower and depended on BMD.

  12. Cardiovascular disease risk factors in 5-year-old urban South ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Cardiovascular disease risk factors in 5-year-old urban South African children the birth to ten study. ... Journal Home > Vol 90, No 7 (2000) > ... To determine CVD risk profiles and their determinants in 5-year-old children living in an urban ...

  13. The International Bleeding Risk Score

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laursen, Stig Borbjerg; Laine, L.; Dalton, H.

    2017-01-01

    The International Bleeding Risk Score: A New Risk Score that can Accurately Predict Mortality in Patients with Upper GI-Bleeding.......The International Bleeding Risk Score: A New Risk Score that can Accurately Predict Mortality in Patients with Upper GI-Bleeding....

  14. Results from Tunka-133 (5 years observation) and from the Tunka-HiSCORE prototype

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prosin, V. V.; Berezhnev, S. F.; Budnev, N. M.; Brückner, M.; Chiavassa, A.; Chvalaev, O. A.; Dyachok, A. V.; Epimakhov, S. N.; Gafarov, A. V.; Gress, O. A.; Gress, T. I.; Horns, D.; Kalmykov, N. N.; Karpov, N. I.; Kiryuhin, S. N.; Konstantinov, E. N.; Korobchenko, A. V.; Korosteleva, E. E.; Kozhin, V. A.; Kunnas, M.; Kuzmichev, L. A.; Lubsandorzhiev, B. K.; Lubsandorzhiev, N. B.; Mirgazov, R. R.; Monkhoev, R. D.; Nachtigall, R.; Osipova, E. A.; Pakhorukov, A. L.; Panasyuk, M. I.; Pankov, L. V.; Poleschuk, V. A.; Popova, E. G.; Porelli, A.; Ptuskin, V. S.; Rubtsov, G. I.; Rüger, M.; Samoliga, V. S.; Semeney, Y. A.; Silaev, A. A.; Silaev, A. A.; Skurikhin, A. V.; Spiering, C.; Sveshnikova, L. G.; Tluczykont, M.; Wischnewski, R.; Zagorodnikov, A. V.; Zurbanov, A. V.

    2016-07-01

    Data obtained with two detectors located at the Tunka Cosmic Ray facility are presented. The Cherenkov light array for registration of extensive air showers (EAS) Tunka-133 collected data during 5 winter seasons since 2009 to 2014. The differential energy spectrum of all particles and the dependence of the average maximum depth on the energy in the range of 6 · 1015-1018 eV measured for 1540 hours of observation are presented. The preliminary all particle energy spectrum by the data of Tunka-HiSCORE prototype array, installed in 2013, is presented. Some additional experiments in the Tunka Valley are briefly described.

  15. Prevalence and Risk Factors for Delirium in Acute Stroke Patients. A Retrospective 5-Years Clinical Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarez-Perez, Francisco José; Paiva, Fatima

    2017-03-01

    Delirium is characterized by disturbances of attention and cognition that cause functional decline and complications. The predisposing factors of delirium are age, male gender, systemic or metabolic disorders, dementia, and stroke. This study aims to evaluate the prevalence of delirium and to identify risk factors. This is a retrospective study that includes patients admitted over 5 years with acute stroke. Patients with transient ischemic attack or venous thrombosis were excluded. Delirium was defined according the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition. Demographical characteristics, clinical-radiological profile, dependence on discharge (modified Rankin Scale score of ≥3 and Barthel Index delirium. A total of 1161 patients were admitted (910 ischemic and 162 hemorrhagic). During hospitalization, 118 patients presented with delirium (10.2%) and 93 died (8%). On discharge, 517 patients were dependent (44.5%). Delirium was significantly associated with age, male gender, cortical infarcts in anterior circulation, higher leukocyte count, cholesterol and fibrinogen levels, lower albumin, atrial fibrillation, previous diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease, and hemorrhagic stroke. Logistic regression results showed that only previous Alzheimer's disease was related to delirium (odds ratio 21.68 [95% confidence interval 1.190-395.026, P = .038]). Dependence on discharge was associated with delirium. Ten percent of the patients presented with delirium associated with older age, Alzheimer's disease, and cortical anterior stroke. Patients with delirium had a higher risk of functional dependence on discharge. Copyright © 2017 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Low FAB score as a predictor of future falling in patients with Parkinson's disease: a 2.5-year prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kataoka, Hiroshi; Ueno, Satoshi

    2015-09-01

    Falling is one of the most disabling features of Parkinson's disease (PD). Many cross-sectional studies, case-control studies, and prospective studies have attempted to identify risk factors or predictors of falls, but consistent results are yet to be obtained because of the various factors involved. We prospectively studied patients with various severities of PD to identify risk factors for future falls during 2.5 years of follow-up. We registered 95 patients with PD, and 83 patients were included in data analysis. A total of 23 variables were evaluated by multivariate logistic regression analysis. Thirty-one patients (37%) had a previous history of falling, and 26 patients (30%) experienced their first fall. The prevalence of falls at 2.5 years was 62% (52 of 83 patients). Frontal Assessment Battery (FAB) score (OR 1.393, p = 0.005, 95% CI 1.104-1.759) and history of fall present (OR 0.142, p = 0.002, 95% CI 0.042-0.48) were related to falling on multiple logistic regression analysis. The following variables differed significantly between patients with first falls and those without falling: levodopa equivalent dose (p = 0.023), UPDRS part I (p = 0.006), SF-8 (p = 0.017), and FAB (p = 0.026). Calculation of the FAB score may be useful for predicting the risk of future falls in patients with various severities of PD. Our results suggest that a low FAB score combined with a history of falling within the past 6 months carries an increased risk of future falls.

  17. Sarcopenic obesity and dynapenic obesity: 5-year associations with falls risk in middle-aged and older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, David; Sanders, Kerrie M; Aitken, Dawn; Hayes, Alan; Ebeling, Peter R; Jones, Graeme

    2014-06-01

    To determine whether obesity concurrent with sarcopenia (low muscle mass) or dynapenia (low muscle strength) is associated with increased falls risk in middle-aged and older adults. 5-year prospective cohort study including 674 community-dwelling volunteers (mean ± SD age 61.4 ± 7.0 years; 48% female). Sarcopenia and dynapenia were defined as lowest sex-specific tertiles for dual-energy X-ray (DXA)-assessed appendicular lean mass (adjusted for height and fat mass) or lower-limb strength, respectively. Obesity was defined as the highest tertiles of DXA-assessed total or trunk fat mass. Change in falls risk was calculated using the Physiological Profile Assessment (z-scores: 0-1 = mild increased risk; 1-2 = moderate increased risk; >2 = marked increased risk). Multivariable linear regression analyses revealed mild but significantly increased falls risk scores for dynapenic obesity (change in mean z-score compared to non-dynapenic, non-obese group: 0.33, 95% CI 0.06-0.59 [men] and 0.46, 95% CI 0.21-0.72 [women]) and dynapenia (0.25, 95% CI 0.05-0.46 [women only]). Dynapenic obesity, but not sarcopenic obesity, is predictive of increased falls risk score in middle-aged and older adults. In clinical settings, muscle function assessments may be useful for predicting falls risk in obese patients. Copyright © 2014 The Obesity Society.

  18. Risk indicators of gingivitis in 5-year-old Brazilian children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortellazzi, Karine Laura; Pereira, Stela Márcia; Tagliaferro, Elaine Pereira de Silva; Ambrosano, Gláucia Maria Bovi; Zanin, Luciane; Meneghim, Marcelo de Castro; Hebling, Eduardo; Pereira, Antonio Carlos

    2008-01-01

    To identify the risk indicators of gingivitis among socioeconomic, clinical and gender variables in 5-year-old children attending preschools in Piracicaba, Brazil, in 2005. The sample consisted of 728 subjects attending 22 public (n = 428) and 18 private (n = 300) preschools. A previously calibrated examiner performed the clinical examination in an outdoor setting, under natural light, using a dental mirror, Community Periodontal Index probe and air-drying. Gingival status was measured using the gingival alteration index for 5-year-olds according to the national survey carried out in 2002 in Brazil (Health Ministry of Brazil, 2004). Socioeconomic variables (monthly family income, number of people living in the household, parents' educational level, home ownership and car ownership) were collected by means of a parental semi-structured questionnaire. The prevalence of gingivitis was 16.6%. Monthly family income (p car ownership (p = 0.0854), gender (p = 0.0087), initial lesion (p indicators of gingivitis. The prevalence of gingivitis in 5-year-old preschool children in Piracicaba was 16.6%. Also, family income of up to 4 minimum wages, male gender, the presence of initial caries lesion and crowding were risk indicators of gingivitis.

  19. Increased risk of stroke and transient ischemic attack in 5-year survivors of Hodgkin lymphoma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Bruin, Marie L; Dorresteijn, Lucille D A; van't Veer, Mars B;

    2009-01-01

    Cox regression techniques to study treatment-related factors and other risk factors. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 17.5 years, 96 patients developed cerebrovascular disease (55 strokes, 31 TIAs, and 10 with both TIA and stroke; median age = 52 years). Most......, after prolonged follow-up. The cumulative incidence of ischemic stroke or TIA 30 years after Hodgkin lymphoma treatment was 7% (95% CI = 5% to 8%). Radiation to the neck and mediastinum was an independent risk factor for ischemic cerebrovascular disease (hazard ratio = 2.5, 95% CI = 1.1 to 5.6 vs......BACKGROUND: Information on clinically verified stroke and transient ischemic attack (TIA) following Hodgkin lymphoma is scarce. We quantified the long-term risk of cerebrovascular disease associated with the use of radiotherapy and chemotherapy in survivors of Hodgkin lymphoma and explored...

  20. [Analysis of risk factors for bone metastasis after radical resection of colorectal cancer within 5 years].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ang; Tan, Zhen; Fu, Chuangang; Wang, Hao; Yuan, Jie

    2017-01-25

    To investigate the risk factors of metachronous bone metastasis after radical resection of colorectal cancer within 5 years. Clinical data of 1 749 patients with colorectal cancer, of whom 50(2.8%) patients developed metastasis to bone after operation, in the Department of Colorectal Surgery, Changhai Hospital of The Second Military Medical University from January 2001 to December 2010 were analyzed retrospectively. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to find the risk factors of metachronous bone metastasis from colorectal cancer using Chi square test and Logistic regression, respectively. Of 50 colorectal cancer cases with bone metastasis, 29 were male and 21 were female. The age was ≥ 60 years old in 28 cases. Tumors of 36 cases were located in the rectum and of 14 cases located in the colon. Pathology examination showed 43 cases were adenocarcinomas, 7 cases were mucinous adenocarcinoma. Forty-two cases had T3-4 stage lesions, 30 cases had lymph node metastasis, 14 cases had pulmonary metastasis, and 5 cases had liver metastasis. Univariate Chi square test indicated that factors associated with the metachronous bone metastasis of colorectal cancer within 5 years were tumor site (χ(2)=4.932, P=0.026), preoperative carbohydrate antigen 199 (CA199) level (χ(2)=4.266, P=0.039), lymph node metastasis (χ(2)=13.054, P=0.000) and pulmonary metastasis(χ(2)=35.524, P=0.000). The incidence of bone metastasis in patients with rectal cancer (3.6%, 36/991) was higher compared to those with colon cancer (1.8%, 14/758). The incidence of bone metastasis in patients with higher(> 37 kU/L) preoperative serum CA199 level (4.9%, 12/245) was higher compared to those with lower serum CA199 level (2.5%, 38/1504). The incidence of bone metastasis in patients with lymph node metastasis(4.8%,30/627) and pulmonary metastasis (11.6%, 14/121) was significantly higher compared to those without lymph node metastasis (1.8%, 20/1122) and pulmonary metastasis(2.2%, 36

  1. Modifiable health risks in Atlantic Canadian employees: a 5-year report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makrides, L; Sawatzky, C; Petrie, J; Veinot, P

    2010-12-01

    A number of modifiable health risks, such as smoking, inactivity and obesity have been linked to increased employer costs, including decreased productivity and increased absenteeism and health claims. The purpose of this paper is to report on the health profile and prevalence of modifiable health risks in an Atlantic Canadian Employee Database. Data were collected over a 5-year period (2001-2006) by the Atlantic Health and Wellness Institute, the research arm of Creative Wellness Solutions, in Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada. Each employee of 51 workplaces (n = 6067; 2665 males, 3402 females; average age 41.3 years) completed a Health Risk Assessment questionnaire on smoking, nutrition and physical activity behaviours. Clinical data measurements were blood pressure, blood cholesterol, weight and height. Data were compared for private, public and health sectors. Sixteen percent had elevated blood pressure (≥ 140/90 mmHg), 20% smoked cigarettes, 70% were overweight [body mass index (BMI) ≥ 25 kg/m(2)], 31% were obese (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m(2)), 38% had elevated non-fasting cholesterol levels (≥ 5.20 mmol/l) and 49% were inactive (health risks (i.e. daily tobacco smoking, physical inactivity, overweight and high blood pressure). Health care sector employees were healthier overall, but there was substantial room for improvement. The present analysis identified an alarming prevalence of modifiable health risks in Atlantic Canadian employees. Workplaces need to invest in workplace wellness to reduce the risks and promote better health among employees, thus increasing productivity and decreasing the financial burden on employers.

  2. Diarrhea Prevalence, Care, and Risk Factors Among Poor Children Under 5 Years of Age in Mesoamerica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colombara, Danny V; Hernández, Bernardo; McNellan, Claire R; Desai, Sima S; Gagnier, Marielle C; Haakenstad, Annie; Johanns, Casey; Palmisano, Erin B; Ríos-Zertuche, Diego; Schaefer, Alexandra; Zúñiga-Brenes, Paola; Zyznieuski, Nicholas; Iriarte, Emma; Mokdad, Ali H

    2016-03-01

    Care practices and risk factors for diarrhea among impoverished communities across Mesoamerica are unknown. Using Salud Mesoamérica Initiative baseline data, collected 2011-2013, we assessed the prevalence of diarrhea, adherence to evidence-based treatment guidelines, and potential diarrhea correlates in poor and indigenous communities across Mesoamerica. This study surveyed 14,500 children under 5 years of age in poor areas of El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico (Chiapas State), Nicaragua, and Panama. We compared diarrhea prevalence and treatment modalities using χ(2) tests and used multivariable Poisson regression models to calculate adjusted risk ratios (aRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for potential correlates of diarrhea. The 2-week point prevalence of diarrhea was 13% overall, with significant differences between countries (P risk for diarrhea (aRR = 1.49, 95% CI = 1.15, 1.95). Our results call for programs to examine and remedy low adherence to evidence-based treatment guidelines. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

  3. [Impact of an information campaign on cardiovascular risk factors. 5-year results at the study town Epernon].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruckert, E; Thomas, D; Emmerich, J; Blin, P; Bichon, L; Amelineau, E

    1999-03-13

    Information campaigns are implemented to improve knowledge of cardiovascular disease and risk factors. The impact of these programs must be evaluated to determine whether they truly contribute to modifying risk factors in the population. A 5-year information campaign on cardiovascular disease and risk factors was conducted in Epernon, France. The main objectives of the campaign focused on stopping smoking, regular physical exercise and balanced nutrition. Data were collected from a representative sample of the female and male population aged 20 to 65 years selected from the study town Epernon (500 subjects), and in control towns, Magny-en-Vexin and Moret-sur-Loing (200 subjects). The study town and control towns were comparable for population, demographic characteristics and geographic localization (distance from Paris). The subjects were invited to respond to a questionnaire on demographic data, attitudes toward health, risk factors and diet and underwent a clinical examination with blood tests. The initial sample included 961 subjects and 68.5% participated in the final survey. We were unable to evidence any significant difference in risk factors or the 10-year risk score calculated from the Framingham equation adapted to France. The information campaign was well accepted, the population not expression a feeling of lassitude. The campaign had a minimal effect on the way individuals relate to health. There was a fall in mean energy intake, mainly fat calories, which was similar in all three towns. No major modification in cardiovascular risk factors was observed in this low-risk population, suggesting that future information campaigns should be aimed at targeted populations with a higher risk profile using simple and selected messages.

  4. Risk Correlates of Diarrhea in Children Under 5 Years of Age in Slums of Bankura, West Bengal

    OpenAIRE

    Avisek Gupta; Gautam Sarker; Arup Jyoti Rout; Tanushree Mondal; Ranabir Pal

    2015-01-01

    Background: Diarrheal diseases are an important cause of mortality and morbidity globally in children under 5 years of age. Objective: To find the prevalence and risk factors of diarrhea among children under 5 years. Materials and Methods: A population-based analytical cross-sectional study was conducted in the urban slums of Bankura, West Bengal on the prevalence of diarrhea and feeding practices, nutrition, and immunization among 152 children under 5 years (69 males and 83 females). Results...

  5. Disclosure Risk from Factor Scores

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Drechsler Jörg

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Remote access can be a powerful tool for providing data access for external researchers. Since the microdata never leave the secure environment of the data-providing agency, alterations of the microdata can be kept to a minimum. Nevertheless, remote access is not free from risk. Many statistical analyses that do not seem to provide disclosive information at first sight can be used by sophisticated intruders to reveal sensitive information. For this reason the list of allowed queries is usually restricted in a remote setting. However, it is not always easy to identify problematic queries. We therefore strongly support the argument that has been made by other authors: that all queries should be monitored carefully and that any microlevel information should always be withheld. As an illustrative example, we use factor score analysis, for which the output of interest - the factor loading of the variables - seems to be unproblematic. However, as we show in the article, the individual factor scores that are usually returned as part of the output can be used to reveal sensitive information. Our empirical evaluations based on a German establishment survey emphasize that this risk is far from a purely theoretical problem.

  6. Osteoporosis and the risk of symptomatic nephrolithiasis: a population-based 5-year follow-up study in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, Ping-Song; Kuo, Chun-Nan; Hung, Kuo-Sheng; Chang, Wei-Chiao; Liao, Yu-Chien; Chi, Ying-Chen; Chou, Wei-Po; Tsai, Shih-Jen; Liu, Mu-En; Lai, Chiou-Lian; Chou, Yii-Her; Chang, Wei-Pin

    2014-10-01

    This study estimates the risk of symptomatic nephrolithiasis within 5 years of newly diagnosed osteoporosis in a Taiwan population. This cohort study consisted of patients with a diagnosis of osteoporosis between Jan. 2003 and Dec. 2005 (N = 1634). Four age- and gender- matched patients for every patient in the study cohort were selected using random sampling as the comparison cohort (N = 6536). All patients were tracked for 5 years from the date of cohort entry to identify whether they developed symptomatic nephrolithiasis. Cox proportional hazard regressions were performed to evaluate the 5-year nephrolithiasis-free survival rates. During the 5-year follow-up period, 60 osteoporosis patients (3.7%) and 165 non- osteoporosis patients (2.5%) developed symptomatic nephrolithiasis. The adjusted HR of symptomatic nephrolithiasis was 1.38 times greater risk for patients with osteoporosis than for the comparison cohort (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03-1.86; P nephrolithiasis.

  7. Characterization and scoring of skin changes in severe acute malnutrition in children between 6 months and 5 years of age

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heilskov, S; Vestergaard, Christian; Babirekere, E

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Severe acute malnutrition is a life-threatening condition. It can be associated with severe skin changes, first properly described by Williams in 1933. The aetiology of these skin changes is still unknown and their character has never been systematically described in dermatological...... objective was to identify the skin changes characteristic of children with severe acute malnutrition and to develop a clinical score that describes the morphology and severity in dermatological terms. We also investigated if any of the different skin changes were connected to prognosis. MATERIALS...... AND METHODS: At Mulago Hospital, Mwanamugimu (Department of Paediatrics and Child Health), Uganda, 120 children were included over a period of six months and observed when treated for severe acute malnutrition. Skin changes were registered through clinical examination and photo documentation and associated...

  8. Nut intake and 5-year changes in body weight and obesity risk in adults

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Freisling, Heinz; Noh, Hwayoung; Slimani, Nadia

    2017-01-01

    PURPOSE: There is inconsistent evidence regarding the relationship between higher intake of nuts, being an energy-dense food, and weight gain. We investigated the relationship between nut intake and changes in weight over 5 years. METHODS: This study includes 373,293 men and women, 25-70 years ol...

  9. Factors increasing the caries risk of second primary molars in 5-year-old Dutch children

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elfrink, Marlies E C; Schuller, Annemarie A; Veerkamp, Jaap S J; Poorterman, Jan H G; Moll, Henriette A; ten Cate, Bob J M

    2010-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Caries is still a prevalent condition in 5-year-old children. At present, knowledge regarding some aetiological factors, like deciduous molar hypomineralization (DMH), is limited. AIM: To investigate aetiological factors both directly and indirectly associated with caries in second prima

  10. Water fluoridation, tooth decay in 5 year olds, and social deprivation measured by the Jarman score: analysis of data from British dental surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, C. M.; Taylor, G. O.; Whittle, J. G.; Evans, D.; Trotter, D. P.

    1997-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To examine the effect of water fluoridation, both artificial and natural, on dental decay, after socioeconomic deprivation was controlled for. DESIGN: Ecological study based on results from the NHS dental surveys in 5 year olds in 1991-2 and 1993-4 and Jarman underprivileged area scores from the 1991 census. SETTING: Electoral wards in three areas: Hartlepool (naturally fluoridated), Newcastle and North Tyneside (fluoridated), and Salford and Trafford (non-fluoridated). SUBJECTS: 5 year old children (n = 10,004). INTERVENTION: Water fluoridation (artificial and occurring naturally). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Ward tooth decay score (score on the "decayed, missing, and filled tooth index" for each electoral ward). RESULTS: Multiple linear regression showed a significant interaction between Jarman score for ward, mean number of teeth affected by decay, and both types of water fluoridation. This confirms that the more deprived an area, the greater benefit derived from fluoridation, whether natural or artificial (R2 = 0.84, P Tooth decay is confirmed as a disease associated with social deprivation, and the more socially deprived areas benefit more from fluoridation. Widespread water fluoridation is urgently needed to reduce the "dental health divide" by improving the dental health of the poorer people in Britain. PMID:9329305

  11. Insulin Resistance and Cardiovascular Risk Factors in 3-to 5-Year-Old Overweight or Obese Children

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bocca, Gianni; Ongering, Eva C.; Stolk, Ronald P.; Sauer, Pieter J. J.

    2013-01-01

    Background/Aims: The increasing rate of overweight and obesity is alarming. The complications of overweight and obesity at a young age are largely unknown. We aimed to assess the prevalence of insulin resistance (IR) and cardiovascular risk factors among overweight and obese children aged 3-5 years.

  12. Insulin Resistance and Cardiovascular Risk Factors in 3-to 5-Year-Old Overweight or Obese Children

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bocca, Gianni; Ongering, Eva C.; Stolk, Ronald P.; Sauer, Pieter J. J.

    2013-01-01

    Background/Aims: The increasing rate of overweight and obesity is alarming. The complications of overweight and obesity at a young age are largely unknown. We aimed to assess the prevalence of insulin resistance (IR) and cardiovascular risk factors among overweight and obese children aged 3-5 years.

  13. Treatment-specific risks of second malignancies and cardiovascular disease in 5-year survivors of testicular cancer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Belt-Dusebout, Alexandra W.; de Wit, Ronald; Gietema, Jourik A.; Horenblas, Simon; Louwman, Marieke W. J.; Ribot, Jacques G.; Hoekstra, Harald J.; Ouwens, Gabey M.; Aleman, Berthe M. P.; van Leeuwen, Flora E.

    2007-01-01

    Purpose To compare radiotherapy and chemotherapy effects on long-term risks of second malignant neoplasms (SMNs) and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) in testicular cancer (TC) survivors. Patients and Methods In our nationwide cohort comprising 2,707 5-year TC survivors, incidences of SMNs and CVDs wer

  14. Cardiovascular risk scores for coronary atherosclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yalcin, Murat; Kardesoglu, Ejder; Aparci, Mustafa; Isilak, Zafer; Uz, Omer; Yiginer, Omer; Ozmen, Namik; Cingozbay, Bekir Yilmaz; Uzun, Mehmet; Cebeci, Bekir Sitki

    2012-10-01

    The objective of this study was to compare frequently used cardiovascular risk scores in predicting the presence of coronary artery disease (CAD) and 3-vessel disease. In 350 consecutive patients (218 men and 132 women) who underwent coronary angiography, the cardiovascular risk level was determined using the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), the Modified Framingham Risk Score (MFRS), the Prospective Cardiovascular Münster (PROCAM) score, and the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). The area under the curve for receiver operating characteristic curves showed that FRS had more predictive value than the other scores for CAD (area under curve, 0.76, P MFRS, PROCAM, and SCORE) may predict the presence and severity of coronary atherosclerosis.The FRS had better predictive value than the other scores.

  15. Prevalence of cryptosporidium in children under 5 years of age, immunocompromised patients and high risk persons in Isfahan province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehdi Azami

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: Cryptosporidium is an important enteric parasite which causes diarrheal illness in humans and animals worldwide. With attention to the role of cryptosporidium in producing diarrhea and mortality in immunocopromised patients and children under 5 years of age, the present study was designed to identify the prevalence of cryptosporidium and potential risk factors in Isfahan province. Methods: This descriptive study was done in Isfahan province from October 2003 to April 2004. A total of 642 children under 5 years of age, immunocompromised patients and high risk persons selected randomly and their stool samples were studied microscopically using Sheater's Sucrose Flotation technique and stained by modified Ziehl-Neelsen staining method. Results: The overall prevalence of cryptosporidium was 4.7% (30 samples. The prevalence rates of infection were 4.6%, 3.5% and 5.4% in children under 5 years of age, immunocompromised patients and high risk persons, respectively. The highest prevalence of infection (6.2% belonged to 1-2 years old children in the group of under 5 years of age, 3-4 years in immunocompromised patients group and 5-10 years in high risk persons group (10%, 6.2% and 14.8% respectively. Conclusion: Cryptosporidium is significantly prevalent in children under 5 years of age, immune compromised patients and high risk persons in Isfahan province. Therefore, health policy makers have to design a plan to identify and treat infected subjected with cryptosporidium thus as a result the transmission of the disease can be prevented in the society.

  16. Population-based 5-year follow-up study in Taiwan of dementia and risk of stroke.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mu-En Liu

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: This study estimates the risk of stroke within 5 years of newly diagnosed dementia among elderly persons aged 65 and above. We examined the relationship between antipsychotic usage and development of stroke in patients with dementia. METHODS: We conducted a nationwide 5-year population-based study using data retrieved from the Longitudinal Health Insurance Database 2005 (LHID2005 in Taiwan. The study cohort comprised 2243 patients with dementia aged ≥65 years who had at least one inpatient service claim or at least 2 ambulatory care claims, whereas the comparison cohort consisted of 6714 randomly selected subjects (3 for every dementia patient and were matched with the study group according to sex, age, and index year. We further classified dementia patients into 2 groups based on their history of antipsychotic usage. A total of 1450 patients were classified into the antipsychotic usage group and the remaining 793 patients were classified into the non-antipsychotic usage group. Cox proportional-hazards regressions were performed to compute the 5-year stroke-free survival rates after adjusting for potentially confounding factors. RESULTS: The dementia patients have a 2-fold greater risk of developing stroke within 5 years of diagnosis compared to non-dementia age- and sex-matched subjects, after adjusting for other risk factors (95% confidence interval (CI = 2.58-3.08; P<.001. Antipsychotic usage among patients with dementia increases risk of stroke 1.17-fold compared to patients without antipsychotic treatment (95% CI = 1.01-1.40; P<.05. CONCLUSIONS: Dementia may be an independent risk factor for stroke, and the use of antipsychotics may further increase the risk of stroke in dementia patients.

  17. Increased Risk of Stroke and Transient Ischemic Attack in 5-Year Survivors of Hodgkin Lymphoma

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.L. de Bruin; L.D.A Dorresteijn; M.B. van 't Veer; A.D.G. Krol; H.J. van der Pal; A.C. Kappelle; W. Boogerd; B.M.P. Aleman; F.E. van Leeuwen

    2009-01-01

    Information on clinically verified stroke and transient ischemic attack (TIA) following Hodgkin lymphoma is scarce. We quantified the long-term risk of cerebrovascular disease associated with the use of radiotherapy and chemotherapy in survivors of Hodgkin lymphoma and explored potential pathogenic

  18. Increased risk of stroke and transient ischemic attack in 5-year survivors of Hodgkin lymphoma.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruin, M.L. De; Dorresteijn, L.D.A.; Veer, M.B. van 't; Krol, A.D.; Pal, H.J. van der; Kappelle, A.C.; Boogerd, W.; Aleman, B.M.; Leeuwen, F.E. van

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Information on clinically verified stroke and transient ischemic attack (TIA) following Hodgkin lymphoma is scarce. We quantified the long-term risk of cerebrovascular disease associated with the use of radiotherapy and chemotherapy in survivors of Hodgkin lymphoma and explored potential

  19. Cardiovascular risk factors and 5-year mortality in the Copenhagen Stroke Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kammersgaard, Lars Peter; Olsen, Tom Skyhøj

    2005-01-01

    analyses, adjustment for other factors and especially age revealed the lethal effect of smoking, while the positive effect of alcohol disappeared. More focus on secondary preventive measures, such as anticoagulation for AF, smoking cessation, and proper treatment of diabetes may significantly improve long...... population. METHODS: We studied 905 ischemic stroke patients from the community-based Copenhagen Stroke Study. Patients had a CT scan and stroke severity was measured by the Scandinavian Stroke Scale on admission. A comprehensive evaluation was performed by a standardized medical examination...... by Cox proportional hazards analyses adjusted for age, gender, stroke severity, and risk factor profile. RESULTS: In Kaplan-Meier analyses atrial fibrillation (AF), ischemic heart disease, diabetes, and previous stroke were associated with increased mortality, while smoking and alcohol intake were...

  20. Cardiovascular risk factors and 5-year mortality in the Copenhagen Stroke Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kammersgaard, Lars Peter; Olsen, Tom Skyhøj

    2005-01-01

    by Cox proportional hazards analyses adjusted for age, gender, stroke severity, and risk factor profile. RESULTS: In Kaplan-Meier analyses atrial fibrillation (AF), ischemic heart disease, diabetes, and previous stroke were associated with increased mortality, while smoking and alcohol intake were.......0-1.4), and previous stroke (HR 1.4; 95% CI 1.1-1.7), after adjustment for age, gender, and stroke severity. CONCLUSIONS: AF, diabetes, smoking, and previous stroke significantly affect long-term survival. Although smoking and daily alcohol consumption appeared to be associated with improved survival in the univariate...... analyses, adjustment for other factors and especially age revealed the lethal effect of smoking, while the positive effect of alcohol disappeared. More focus on secondary preventive measures, such as anticoagulation for AF, smoking cessation, and proper treatment of diabetes may significantly improve long...

  1. Immediate Restoration of Immediate Implants in the Esthetic Zone of the Maxilla Via the Copy-Abutment Technique: 5-Year Follow-Up of Pink Esthetic Scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fürhauser, Rudolf; Mailath-Pokorny, Georg; Haas, Robert; Busenlechner, Dieter; Watzek, Georg; Pommer, Bernhard

    2017-02-01

    Implant esthetics may benefit from individualized zirconia abutments copying the emergence profile of the natural tooth and delivered within days after immediate implant insertion. To investigate the esthetic outcome of the Copy-Abutment technique using the Pink Esthetic Score (PES). A total of 77 patients with single-tooth implants in the anterior maxilla restored at the day of immediate implant placement using Copy-Abutments and provisional crowns were followed-up after 1 week, 1 month, 4 months, 6 months, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years to assess implant esthetics. PES ranged between 7 and 14 (median: 13) and improved significantly between the 6 month and 1 year follow-up (p process deficiency deteriorated (p = .016). Mean mucosal recession was 0.26 ± 0.86 mm (range: 0-1.6) after 5 years and not related to gingival biotype. Copy-Abutments for immediate restoration of implants in the esthetic zone show satisfactory long-term esthetic outcomes. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  2. Risk factors for depressive disorders in very old age: a population-based cohort study with a 5-year follow-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersson, Sofia; Mathillas, Johan; Wallin, Karin; Olofsson, Birgitta; Allard, Per; Gustafson, Yngve

    2014-05-01

    Depressive disorders are common among the very old, but insufficiently studied. The present study aims to identify risk factors for depressive disorders in very old age. The present study is based on the GERDA project, a population-based cohort study of people aged ≥85 years (n = 567), with 5 years between baseline and follow-up. Factors associated with the development of depressive disorders according to DSM-IV criteria at follow-up were analysed by means of a multivariate logistic regression. At baseline, depressive disorders were present in 32.3 % of the participants. At follow-up, 69 % of those with baseline depressive disorders had died. Of the 49 survivors, 38 still had depressive disorders. Of the participants without depressive disorders at baseline, 25.5 % had developed depressive disorders at follow-up. Baseline factors independently associated with new cases of depressive disorders after 5 years were hypertension, a history of stroke and 15-item Geriatric Depression Scale score at baseline. The present study supports the earlier findings that depressive disorders among the very old are common, chronic and malignant. Mild depressive symptoms as indicated by GDS-15 score and history of stroke or hypertension seem to be important risk factors for incident depressive disorders in very old age.

  3. Occupational injury and disease incidence and risk factors in Finnish agriculture based on 5-year insurance records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karttunen, Janne P; Rautiainen, Risto H

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this retrospective cohort study was to evaluate the incidence of and risk factors for compensated occupational injuries and diseases in agriculture. The study population consisted of 78,679 Finnish farmers, spouses, and salaried family members covered by mandatory workers' compensation insurance. This population had a total of 24,424 occupational injuries and 1684 diseases from 2000 to 2004. In the 5-year period, 20.2% of the population had (one or more) injuries and 2.0% had occupational diseases. Multiple claims were common particularly among livestock producers. Using Poisson regression analyses, we identified several personal and farm-related risk factors, with relative risk estimates ranging from 1.07 to 3.08 for injuries and from 1.45 to 3.01 for diseases. Cattle-intensive geographic regions, occupational health service membership, large farm size, and farming alone were identified as risk factors for both outcomes. Further, male gender, higher number of insurance years, and residing on the farm were among risk factors for injury. These risk factors identified from a large longitudinal data set can be considered for developing and targeting interventions for farmers at highest risk of occupational injury and disease.

  4. Prenatal methamphetamine exposure, home environment, and primary caregiver risk factors predict child behavioral problems at 5 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Twomey, Jean; LaGasse, Linda; Derauf, Chris; Newman, Elana; Shah, Rizwan; Smith, Lynne; Arria, Amelia; Huestis, Marilyn; DellaGrotta, Sheri; Roberts, Mary; Dansereau, Lynne; Neal, Charles; Lester, Barry

    2013-01-01

    This study investigated the prospective association between prenatal methamphetamine (MA) exposure and child behavioral problems at 5 years while also examining the home environment at 30 months and several primary caregiver (PC) risk factors. Participants were 97 MA-exposed and 117 comparison children and their PCs enrolled in the Infant Development, Environment and Lifestyle Study. Hypotheses were that child behaviors would be adversely impacted by (a) prenatal MA exposure, (b) home environments that provided less developmental stimulation and emotional responsiveness to the child, and (c) the presence of PC psychological symptoms and other risk factors. Prenatal MA exposure was associated with child externalizing behavioral problems at 5 years. Home environments that were more conducive to meeting children's developmental and emotional needs were associated with fewer internalizing and externalizing behavioral problems. Independent of prenatal MA exposure, PC parenting stress and psychological symptoms were associated with increased child behavioral problems. Findings suggest prenatal MA exposure may contribute to externalizing behavioral problems in early childhood and the importance of considering possible vulnerabilities related to prenatal MA exposure in the context of the child's caregiving environment.

  5. MODELING CREDIT RISK THROUGH CREDIT SCORING

    OpenAIRE

    Adrian Cantemir CALIN; Oana Cristina POPOVICI

    2014-01-01

    Credit risk governs all financial transactions and it is defined as the risk of suffering a loss due to certain shifts in the credit quality of a counterpart. Credit risk literature gravitates around two main modeling approaches: the structural approach and the reduced form approach. In addition to these perspectives, credit risk assessment has been conducted through a series of techniques such as credit scoring models, which form the traditional approach. This paper examines the evolution of...

  6. A score model for predicting post-liver trans-plantation survival in HBV cirrhosis-related hepatocellular carcinoma recipients:a single center 5-year experience

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Li-Ying Wang; Xin-Hua Chen; Tian-An Jiang; Fen Chen; Shu-Sen Zheng; Xiao Xu; Wei-Lin Wang; Jian Wu; Min Zhang; Yan Shen; Sheng Yan; Hai-Yang Xie

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The prognostic prediction of liver transplan-tation (LT) guides the donor organ allocation. However, there is currently no satisfactory model to predict the recipients' outcome, especially for the patients with HBV cirrhosis-re-lated hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The present study was to develop a quantitative assessment model for predicting the post-LT survival in HBV-related HCC patients. METHODS: Two hundred and thirty-eight LT recipients at the Liver Transplant Center, First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine between 2008 and 2013 were included in this study. Their post-LT prognosis was recorded and multiple risk factors were analyzed using univariate and multivariate analyses in Cox regression. RESULTS: The score model was as follows: 0.114×(Child-Pugh score)-0.002×(positive HBV DNA detection time)+0.647× (number of tumor nodules)+0.055×(max diameter of tumor nodules)+0.231×lnAFP+0.437×(tumor differentiation grade). The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that the area under the curve of the scoring model for predict-ing the post-LT survival was 0.887. The cut-off value was 1.27, which was associated with a sensitivity of 72.5% and a speci-ficity of 90.7%, respectively. CONCLUSION: The quantitative score model for predicting post-LT survival proved to be sensitive and specific.

  7. Cardiovascular risk score in Rheumatoid Arthritis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagan, Abrar Ahmed; Mahmud, Tafazzul E Haque; Rasheed, Aflak; Zafar, Zafar Ali; Rehman, Ata ur; Ali, Amjad

    2016-01-01

    Objective: To determine the 10-year Cardiovascular risk score with QRISK-2 and Framingham risk calculators in Rheumatoid Arthritis and Non Rheumatoid Arthritis subjects and asses the usefulness of QRISK-2 and Framingham calculators in both groups. Methods: During the study 106 RA and 106 Non RA patients age and sex matched participants were enrolled from outpatient department. Demographic data and questions regarding other study parameters were noted. After 14 hours of fasting 5 ml of venous blood was drawn for Cholesterol and HDL levels, laboratory tests were performed on COBAS c III (ROCHE). QRISK-2 and Framingham risk calculators were used to get individual 10-year CVD risk score. Results: In this study the mean age of RA group was (45.1±9.5) for Non RA group (43.7±8.2), with female gender as common. The mean predicted 10-year score with QRISK-2 calculator in RA group (14.2±17.1%) and Non RA group was (13.2±19.0%) with (p-value 0.122). The 10-year score with Framingham risk score in RA group was (12.9±10.4%) and Non RA group was (8.9±8.7%) with (p-value 0.001). In RA group QRISK-2 (24.5%) and FRS (31.1%) cases with predicted score were in higher risk category. The maximum agreement scores between both calculators was observed in both groups (Kappa = 0.618 RA Group; Kappa = 0.671 Non RA Group). Conclusion: QRISK-2 calculator is more appropriate as it takes RA, ethnicity, CKD, and Atrial fibrillation as factors in risk assessment score. PMID:27375684

  8. Security Risk Scoring Incorporating Computers' Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eli Weintraub

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available A framework of a Continuous Monitoring System (CMS is presented, having new improved capabilities. The system uses the actual real-time configuration of the system and environment characterized by a Configuration Management Data Base (CMDB which includes detailed information of organizational database contents, security and privacy specifications. The Common Vulnerability Scoring Systems' (CVSS algorithm produces risk scores incorporating information from the CMDB. By using the real updated environmental characteristics the system enables achieving accurate scores compared to existing practices. Framework presentation includes systems' design and an illustration of scoring computations.

  9. Modified EBMT Pretransplant Risk Score Can Identify Favorable-risk Patients Undergoing Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation for AML, Not Identified by the HCT-CI Score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michelis, Fotios V; Messner, Hans A; Uhm, Jieun; Alam, Naheed; Lambie, Anna; McGillis, Laura; Seftel, Matthew D; Gupta, Vikas; Kuruvilla, John; Lipton, Jeffrey H; Kim, Dennis Dong Hwan

    2015-05-01

    Risk scores have been developed for allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) outcomes, such as the Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation-Comorbidity Index (HCT-CI) and the modified European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation risk score (mEBMT) for acute leukemia. We investigated the influence of these scores for 350 patients who underwent transplantation for acute myeloid leukemia (AML). The HCT-CI scores were grouped as 0 to 2 and ≥ 3 (231 and 119 patients, respectively) and the mEBMT scores as 0 to 2 and ≥ 3 (166 and 184 patients, respectively). Univariate analysis showed a significant association between the HCT-CI score and overall survival (OS) (P = .01), as did the mEBMT score (P = .002). The 5-year OS rate was 50% and 34% for a mEBMT score of 0 to 2 and ≥ 3, respectively. A subgroup of patients with a mEBMT score of 0 to 1 (n = 32) demonstrated a favorable OS of 75% at 5 years. This subgroup was younger (median age, 31 years), in first remission at transplantation, and had related donors. For the HCT-CI, the 5-year OS was 46% and 34% for a score of 0 to 2 and ≥ 3, respectively. Patients with an HCT-CI score of 0 (n = 94) had a 5-year OS of 44%. Multivariable analysis confirmed both the HCT-CI score and the mEBMT score, as previously grouped, as independent prognostic variables for both OS (P = .02 and P = .001, respectively) and nonrelapse mortality (NRM) (P = .01 and P = .003, respectively). The results of the present study have demonstrated that the HCT-CI and mEBMT are both prognostic for OS and NRM in our cohort. However, the mEBMT score can identify a favorable-risk subgroup of patients not identifiable using the HCT-CI. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Estimated Risk of Developing Selected DSM-IV Disorders Among 5-Year-Old Children with Prenatal Cocaine Exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrow, Connie E.; Xue, Lihua; Manjunath, Sudha; Culbertson, Jan C.; Accornero, Veronica H.; Anthony, James C.; Bandstra, Emmalee S.

    2016-01-01

    This study estimated childhood risk of developing selected DSM-IV Disorders, including Attention-Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD), Oppositional Defiant Disorder (ODD), and Separation Anxiety Disorder (SAD), in children with prenatal cocaine exposure (PCE). Children were enrolled prospectively at birth (n=476) with prenatal drug exposures documented by maternal interview, urine and meconium assays. Study participants included 400 African-American children from the birth cohort, 208 cocaine-exposed (CE) and 192 non-cocaine-exposed (NCE) who attended a 5-year follow-up assessment and whose caregiver completed the Computerized Diagnostic Interview Schedule for Children. Under a generalized linear model (logistic link), Fisher’s exact methods were used to estimate the CE-associated relative risk (RR) of these disorders. Results indicated a modest but statistically robust elevation of ADHD risk associated with increasing levels of PCE (pEstimated cumulative incidence proportions among CE children were 2.9% for ADHD (vs 3.1% NCE); 1.4% for SAD (vs 1.6% NCE); and 4.3% for ODD (vs 6.8% NCE). Findings offer suggestive evidence of increased risk of ADHD (but not ODD or SAD) in relation to an increasing gradient of PCE during gestation.

  11. Increased Serum Sodium and Serum Osmolarity Are Independent Risk Factors for Developing Chronic Kidney Disease; 5 Year Cohort Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuwabara, Masanari; Hisatome, Ichiro; Roncal-Jimenez, Carlos A.; Niwa, Koichiro; Andres-Hernando, Ana; Jensen, Thomas; Bjornstad, Petter; Milagres, Tamara; Cicerchi, Christina; Song, Zhilin; Garcia, Gabriela; Sánchez-Lozada, Laura G.; Ohno, Minoru; Lanaspa, Miguel A.; Johnson, Richard J.

    2017-01-01

    Background Epidemics of chronic kidney disease (CKD) not due to diabetes mellitus (DM) or hypertension have been observed among individuals working in hot environments in several areas of the world. Experimental models have documented that recurrent heat stress and water restriction can lead to CKD, and the mechanism may be mediated by hyperosmolarity that activates pathways (vasopressin, aldose reductase-fructokinase) that induce renal injury. Here we tested the hypothesis that elevated serum sodium, which reflects serum osmolality, may be an independent risk factor for the development of CKD. Methods This study was a large-scale, single-center, retrospective 5-year cohort study at Center for Preventive Medicine, St. Luke’s International Hospital, Tokyo, Japan, between 2004 and 2009. We analyzed 13,201 subjects who underwent annual medical examination of which 12,041 subjects (age 35 to 85) without DM and/or CKD were enrolled. This analysis evaluated age, sex, body mass index, abdominal circumference, hypertension, dyslipidemia, hyperuricemia, fasting glucose, BUN, serum sodium, potassium, chloride and calculated serum osmolarity. Results Elevated serum sodium was an independent risk factor for development of CKD (OR: 1.03, 95% CI, 1.00–1.07) after adjusted regression analysis with an 18 percent increased risk for every 5 mmol/L change in serum sodium. Calculated serum osmolarity was also an independent risk factor for CKD (OR: 1.04; 95% CI, 1.03–1.05) as was BUN (OR: 1.08; 95% CI, 1.06–1.10) (independent of serum creatinine). Conclusions Elevated serum sodium and calculated serum osmolarity are independent risk factors for developing CKD. This finding supports the role of limiting salt intake and preventing dehydration to reduce risk of CKD. PMID:28081152

  12. Risk indicators and potential risk factors for caries in 5-year-olds of different ethnic groups in Amsterdam.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verrips, G.H.; Frencken, J.E.; Kalsbeek, H.; Horst, G. ter; Filedt Kok-Weimar, T.L.

    1992-01-01

    The aim of this study was threefold: first, to assess the oral health of Turkish, Moroccan, Surinamese, Dutch and "other" 5-yr-old children living in Amsterdam; second, to identify risk indicators for caries, in addition to ethnicity; and third, to identify potential risk factors related to differen

  13. Risk indicators and potential risk factors for caries in 5-year-olds of different ethnic groups in Amsterdam.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verrips, G.H.; Frencken, J.E.; Kalsbeek, H.; Horst, G. ter; Filedt Kok-Weimar, T.L.

    1992-01-01

    The aim of this study was threefold: first, to assess the oral health of Turkish, Moroccan, Surinamese, Dutch and "other" 5-yr-old children living in Amsterdam; second, to identify risk indicators for caries, in addition to ethnicity; and third, to identify potential risk factors related to

  14. Evaluation of the "medication fall risk score".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yazdani, Cyrus; Hall, Scott

    2017-01-01

    Results of a study evaluating the predictive validity of a fall screening tool in hospitalized patients are reported. Administrative claims data from two hospitals were analyzed to determine the discriminatory ability of the "medication fall risk score" (RxFS), a medication review fall-risk screening tool that is designed for use in conjunction with nurse-administered tools such as the Morse Fall Scale (MFS). Through analysis of data on administered medications and documented falls in a population of adults who underwent fall-risk screening at hospital admission over a 15-month period (n = 33,058), the predictive value of admission MFS scores, alone or in combination with retrospectively calculated RxFS-based risk scores, was assessed. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and net reclassification improvement (NRI) analysis were used to evaluate improvements in risk prediction with the addition of RxFS data to the prediction model. The area under the ROC curve for the predictive model for falls compromising both MFS and RxFS scores was computed as 0.8014, which was greater than the area under the ROC curve associated with use of the MFS alone (0.7823, p = 0.0030). Screening based on MFS scores alone had 81.25% sensitivity and 61.37% specificity. Combined use of RxFS and MFS scores resulted in 82.42% sensitivity and 66.65% specificity (NRI = 0.0587, p = 0.0003). Reclassification of fall risk based on coadministration of the MFS and the RxFS tools resulted in a modest improvement in specificity without compromising sensitivity. Copyright © 2017 by the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists, Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Risk of sudden sensorineural hearing loss in stroke patients: A 5-year nationwide investigation of 44,460 patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuo, Chin-Lung; Shiao, An-Suey; Wang, Shuu-Jiun; Chang, Wei-Pin; Lin, Yung-Yang

    2016-09-01

    Poststroke sudden sensorineural hearing loss (SSNHL) can hinder communication between patients and healthcare professionals, thereby restricting participation in rehabilitation programs and limiting improvements in physical performance. However, the relationship between stroke and SSNHL remains unclear. This study employed a nationwide population-based dataset to investigate the relationship between stroke and SSNHL.The Taiwan Longitudinal Health Insurance Database was used to compile data from 11,115 stroke patients and a comparison cohort of 33,345 matched nonstroke enrollees. Each patient was followed for 5 years to identify new-onset SSNHL. Stratified Cox proportional-hazard regression analysis was used to examine the association of stroke with subsequent SSNHL.Among the 44,460 patients, 66 patients (55,378 person-years) from the stroke cohort and 105 patients (166,586 person-years) from the comparison cohort were diagnosed with SSNHL. The incidence of SSNHL was approximately twice as high among stroke patients than among nonstroke patients (1.19 and 0.63/1000 person-years, respectively). Stroke patients had a 71% increased risk of SSNHL, compared with nonstroke patients (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.71, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.24-2.36). We also observed a remarkable increase in risk of SSNHL in stroke patients within 1-year of follow-up (adjusted HR 5.65, 95% CI 3.07-10.41) or under steroid therapy during hospitalization (adjusted HR 5.14, 95% CI 2.08-12.75).Patients with stroke had a higher risk of subsequent SSNHL compared with patients without stroke. In particular, stroke patients within 1-year follow-up and those undergoing steroid therapy during hospitalization should be treated with the utmost caution, considering that the risk of SSNHL increases by more than 5-fold.

  16. Prevelence of latent tuberculosis and associated risk factors in children under 5 years of age in Karachi, Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mubashir Zafar

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: As infected children represent a large proportion of the pool from which tuberculosis (TB cases will arise and its associated risk factors that influence TB infection are basic cause for burden of TB. Aim: This study was to determine the prevalence of latent TB and associated risk factors in children less than 5 year of age in Karachi, Pakistan. Setting and Design: Cross-sectional study and it was conducted in tertiary care hospital in Karachi. Materials and Methods: In this study, children who were living in contact with individuals who had proven smear-positive pulmonary TB cases were investigated. A tuberculin skin test (TST was performed on each child. TST sizes ≥5 and 10 mm, respectively, were considered positive. Statistical Analysis: A random effects logistic regression model, which takes into account the clustering of contacts within households, was used to assess the relationship between the tuberculin response of the contact and risk factors. Results are reported as unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios and their 95% confidence intervals. The likelihood ratio test was used to assess the overall significance of risk factors, tests for trend, and tests for interaction. Results: The distribution of TST responses followed a bimodal pattern, with 135 (35% children presenting a palpable induration. The risk of positive TST response in the child increased with the geographic proximity of the child to the individual with TB within the household and with the degree of activities shared with the individual with TB. Nutritional status and presence of a bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG scar were not independent risk factors for TST positivity in this population. On multivariate analysis, the effect of geographic proximity to the individual with TB, household size, and duration of cough in the index case persisted for TST responses ≥5 mm. Conclusions: Positive TST in a child reflects most probably TB infection rather than previous BCG

  17. RISK FACTOR DIAGNOSTIC SCORE IN DIABETIC FOOT

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    Mohamed Shameem P. M

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION Diabetic foot ulcers vary in their clinical presentation and nature of severity and therefore create a challenging problem to the treating surgeon regarding the prediction of the clinical course and the end result of the treatment. Clinical studies have shown that there are certain risk factors for the progression of foot ulcers in diabetics and it may therefore be possible to predict the course of an ulcer foot at presentation itself, thus instituting proper therapy without delay. Spoken otherwise clinical scoring may tell that this particular ulcer is having highest chance of amputation, then one may be able to take an early decision for the same and avoid the septic complications, inconvenience to the patient, long hospital stay and cost of treatments. AIM OF THE STUDY Aim of the study is to evaluate the above-mentioned scoring system in predicting the course the diabetic foot ulcers. MATERIALS AND METHODS 50 patients with Diabetic Foot attending the OPD of Department of Surgery of Government Hospital attached to Calicut Medical College are included in the present study. After thorough history taking and clinical examination, six risk factors like Age, pedal vessels, renal function, neuropathy, radiological findings and ulcers were observed in the patients by giving certain scoring points to each of them. The total number of points scored by the patients at the time of admission or OPD treatment was correlated with the final outcome in these patients, whether leading to amputation or conservative management. All the data was analysed using standard statistical methods. OBSERVATIONS AND RESULTS There were 12 females and 38 males with a female to male ratio 1:3.1. All were aged above 30 years. Twenty-four (48% of them were between 30-60 years and twenty six (52% were above 60 years. 10 patients were treated conservatively with risk score range: 10 to 35. Six had single toe loss with risk score: 25 to 35. Six had multiple toe loss

  18. The risk of hepatocellular carcinoma is decreasing after the first 5 years of entecavir or tenofovir in Caucasians with chronic hepatitis B.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papatheodoridis, George V; Idilman, Ramazan; Dalekos, George N; Buti, Maria; Chi, Heng; van Boemmel, Florian; Calleja, Jose Luis; Sypsa, Vana; Goulis, John; Manolakopoulos, Spilios; Loglio, Alessandro; Siakavelas, Spyros; Keskın, Onur; Gatselis, Nikolaos; Hansen, Bettina E; Lehretz, Maria; de la Revilla, Juan; Savvidou, Savvoula; Kourikou, Anastasia; Vlachogiannakos, Ioannis; Galanis, Kostantinos; Yurdaydin, Cihan; Berg, Thomas; Colombo, Massimo; Esteban, Rafael; Janssen, Harry L A; Lampertico, Pietro

    2017-06-16

    Whether there is a change of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) incidence in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients under long-term therapy with potent nucleos(t)ide analogues is currently unclear. We therefore assessed the HCC incidence beyond year 5 of entecavir/tenofovir therapy and tried to determine possible factors associated with late HCC occurrence. This European 10-center, cohort study included 1951 adult Caucasian CHB patients without HCC at baseline who received entecavir/tenofovir for ≥1 year. Of them, 1205 (62%) patients without HCC within the first 5 years of therapy have been followed for 5-10 (median: 6.8) years. HCCs have been diagnosed in 101/1951 (5.2%) patients within the first 5 years and 17/1205 (1.4%) patients within 5-10 years. The yearly HCC incidence rate was 1.22% within and 0.73% after the first 5 years (p=0.050). The yearly HCC incidence rate did not differ within and after the first 5 years in non-cirrhotics (0.49% vs 0.47%, P=0.931), but it significantly declined in cirrhotics (3.22% vs 1.57%, p=0.039). All HCCs beyond year 5 developed in patients older than 50 years at entecavir/tenofovir onset. Older age, lower platelets at baseline and year 5 and liver stiffness ≥12 kPa at year 5 were independently associated with more frequent HCC development beyond year 5 in multivariable analysis. No patient with low PAGE-B score at baseline or year 5 developed HCC. In conclusion, the HCC risk is decreasing beyond year 5 of entecavir/tenofovir therapy in Caucasian CHB patients, particularly in those with compensated cirrhosis. Older age, especially age ≥50 years, lower platelets and liver stiffness ≥12 kPa at year 5 represent the main risk factors for late HCC development. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. © 2017 by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

  19. Consuming cassava as a staple food places children 2-5 years old at risk for inadequate protein intake, an observational study in Kenya and Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gichuki Simon

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Inadequate protein intake is known to be deleterious in animals. Using WHO consensus documents for human nutrient requirements, the protein:energy ratio (P:E of an adequate diet is > 5%. Cassava has a very low protein content. This study tested the hypothesis that Nigerian and Kenyan children consuming cassava as their staple food are at greater risk for inadequate dietary protein intake than those children who consume less cassava. Methods A 24 hour dietary recall was used to determine the food and nutrient intake of 656 Nigerian and 449 Kenyan children aged 2-5 years residing in areas where cassava is a staple food. Anthropometric measurements were conducted. Diets were scored for diversity using a 12 point score. Pearson's Correlation Coefficients were calculated to relate the fraction of dietary energy obtained from cassava with protein intake, P:E, and dietary diversity. Results The fraction of dietary energy obtained from cassava was > 25% in 35% of Nigerian children and 89% of Kenyan children. The mean dietary diversity score was 4.0 in Nigerian children and 4.5 in Kenyan children, although the mean number of different foods consumed on the survey day in Nigeria was greater than Kenya, 7.0 compared to 4.6. 13% of Nigerian and 53% of Kenyan children surveyed had inadequate protein intake. The fraction of dietary energy derived from cassava was negatively correlated with protein intake, P:E, and dietary diversity. Height-for age z score was directly associated with protein intake and negatively associated with cassava consumption using regression modeling that controlled for energy and zinc intake. Conclusions Inadequate protein intake was found in the diets of Nigerian and Kenyan children consuming cassava as a staple food. Inadequate dietary protein intake is associated with stunting in this population. Interventions to increase protein intake in this vulnerable population should be the focus of future work.

  20. Evolution and degree of control of cardiovascular risk factors after 5 years of follow-up and their relationship with the incidence of peripheral arterial disease: ARTPER cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forés, Rosa; Alzamora, María Teresa; Pera, Guillem; Valverde, Marta; Angla, Maria; Baena-Díez, José Miguel; Mundet-Tuduri, Xavier

    2017-02-09

    Although cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) are well known, their degree of control is not optimal. The aim of this study is to assess the evolution and control of CVRFs after 5 years of monitoring a population-based cohort and their association with the incidence of peripheral arterial disease (PAD). Prospective cohort study recruited between 2006-2008. Second phase between 2011-2012. An ankle brachial index was determined for all participants in both phases. Demographic variables, CVRF and previous cardiovascular events, blood pressure, total cholesterol and its fractions (HDL, LDL), triglycerides, glucose and glycosylated hemoglobin levels in diabetic patients and the cardiovascular risk score according to the REGICOR table were recorded. A total of 2,125 individuals were analyzed. We observed an increase in the prevalence of hypertension (HT) (15.4%), diabetes (DM) (8.2%) and hypercholesterolemia (20.4%), with no changes in obesity and smoking. The cardiovascular risk determined on the basis of the REGICOR table remained at around 5.5%. We observed an increased control of CVRF throughout the follow-up period, except in the case of DM and obesity. In the multivariate analysis, uncontrolled HT 2-folded the risk of onset of PAD (odds ratio [OR] 2.3; 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.3-4.1), whereas smoking 5-folded this risk (OR 5.0; 95% CI 2.5-10.2). Smoking and uncontrolled HT increase the risk of onset of PAD in this population. Despite the increase in drug treatments, the control of CVRFs continues to be suboptimal. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  1. A Clinical Algorithm to Identify HIV Patients at High Risk for Incident Active Tuberculosis: A Prospective 5-Year Cohort Study.

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    Susan Shin-Jung Lee

    Full Text Available Predicting the risk of tuberculosis (TB in people living with HIV (PLHIV using a single test is currently not possible. We aimed to develop and validate a clinical algorithm, using baseline CD4 cell counts, HIV viral load (pVL, and interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA, to identify PLHIV who are at high risk for incident active TB in low-to-moderate TB burden settings where highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART is routinely provided.A prospective, 5-year, cohort study of adult PLHIV was conducted from 2006 to 2012 in two hospitals in Taiwan. HAART was initiated based on contemporary guidelines (CD4 count < = 350/μL. Cox regression was used to identify the predictors of active TB and to construct the algorithm. The validation cohorts included 1455 HIV-infected individuals from previous published studies. Area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve was calculated.Seventeen of 772 participants developed active TB during a median follow-up period of 5.21 years. Baseline CD4 < 350/μL or pVL ≥ 100,000/mL was a predictor of active TB (adjusted HR 4.87, 95% CI 1.49-15.90, P = 0.009. A positive baseline IGRA predicted TB in patients with baseline CD4 ≥ 350/μL and pVL < 100,000/mL (adjusted HR 6.09, 95% CI 1.52-24.40, P = 0.01. Compared with an IGRA-alone strategy, the algorithm improved the sensitivity from 37.5% to 76.5%, the negative predictive value from 98.5% to 99.2%. Compared with an untargeted strategy, the algorithm spared 468 (60.6% from unnecessary TB preventive treatment. Area under the ROC curve was 0.692 (95% CI: 0.587-0.798 for the study cohort and 0.792 (95% CI: 0.776-0.808 and 0.766 in the 2 validation cohorts.A validated algorithm incorporating the baseline CD4 cell count, HIV viral load, and IGRA status can be used to guide targeted TB preventive treatment in PLHIV in low-to-moderate TB burden settings where HAART is routinely provided to all PLHIV. The implementation of this algorithm will avoid unnecessary

  2. Lifestyle counseling for type 2 diabetes risk reduction in Dutch primary care: results of the APHRODITE study after 0.5 and 1.5 years

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermunt, P.W.; Milder, I.E.J.; Wielaard, F.; Vries, de J.H.M.; Oers, van H.; Westert, G.P.

    2011-01-01

    OBJECTIVE To study the overall effect of the Active Prevention in High-Risk Individuals of Diabetes Type 2 in and Around Eindhoven (APHRODITE) lifestyle intervention on type 2 diabetes risk reduction in Dutch primary care after 0.5 and 1.5 years and to evaluate the variability between general

  3. Breast cancer risk prediction using a clinical risk model and polygenic risk score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shieh, Yiwey; Hu, Donglei; Ma, Lin; Huntsman, Scott; Gard, Charlotte C; Leung, Jessica W T; Tice, Jeffrey A; Vachon, Celine M; Cummings, Steven R; Kerlikowske, Karla; Ziv, Elad

    2016-10-01

    Breast cancer risk assessment can inform the use of screening and prevention modalities. We investigated the performance of the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) risk model in combination with a polygenic risk score (PRS) comprised of 83 single nucleotide polymorphisms identified from genome-wide association studies. We conducted a nested case-control study of 486 cases and 495 matched controls within a screening cohort. The PRS was calculated using a Bayesian approach. The contributions of the PRS and variables in the BCSC model to breast cancer risk were tested using conditional logistic regression. Discriminatory accuracy of the models was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Increasing quartiles of the PRS were positively associated with breast cancer risk, with OR 2.54 (95 % CI 1.69-3.82) for breast cancer in the highest versus lowest quartile. In a multivariable model, the PRS, family history, and breast density remained strong risk factors. The AUROC of the PRS was 0.60 (95 % CI 0.57-0.64), and an Asian-specific PRS had AUROC 0.64 (95 % CI 0.53-0.74). A combined model including the BCSC risk factors and PRS had better discrimination than the BCSC model (AUROC 0.65 versus 0.62, p = 0.01). The BCSC-PRS model classified 18 % of cases as high-risk (5-year risk ≥3 %), compared with 7 % using the BCSC model. The PRS improved discrimination of the BCSC risk model and classified more cases as high-risk. Further consideration of the PRS's role in decision-making around screening and prevention strategies is merited.

  4. [A simple point score for definition of the risk of postoperative complications].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grundmann, R; Papoulis, C

    1989-01-01

    During a 5-year-period we recorded prospectively 5,823 patients who had undergone general surgery and documented the postoperative complications as wound infection, pneumonia, reoperations and death. A score including all these complications was developed to evaluate the risk of an operation more exactly than using the wound infection rate alone. This method seems to provide a continuous monitoring and the comparison of the complication risks of certain operations within a quality assurance program. For gastric and colon surgery we found a correlation between postoperative antibiotic use and score, but not between score and postoperative hospitalization time.

  5. Predicting 10-Year Risk of Fatal Cardiovascular Disease in Germany: An Update Based on the SCORE-Deutschland Risk Charts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rücker, Viktoria; Keil, Ulrich; Fitzgerald, Anthony P; Malzahn, Uwe; Prugger, Christof; Ertl, Georg; Heuschmann, Peter U; Neuhauser, Hannelore

    2016-01-01

    Estimation of absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), preferably with population-specific risk charts, has become a cornerstone of CVD primary prevention. Regular recalibration of risk charts may be necessary due to decreasing CVD rates and CVD risk factor levels. The SCORE risk charts for fatal CVD risk assessment were first calibrated for Germany with 1998 risk factor level data and 1999 mortality statistics. We present an update of these risk charts based on the SCORE methodology including estimates of relative risks from SCORE, risk factor levels from the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults 2008–11 (DEGS1) and official mortality statistics from 2012. Competing risks methods were applied and estimates were independently validated. Updated risk charts were calculated based on cholesterol, smoking, systolic blood pressure risk factor levels, sex and 5-year age-groups. The absolute 10-year risk estimates of fatal CVD were lower according to the updated risk charts compared to the first calibration for Germany. In a nationwide sample of 3062 adults aged 40–65 years free of major CVD from DEGS1, the mean 10-year risk of fatal CVD estimated by the updated charts was lower by 29% and the estimated proportion of high risk people (10-year risk > = 5%) by 50% compared to the older risk charts. This recalibration shows a need for regular updates of risk charts according to changes in mortality and risk factor levels in order to sustain the identification of people with a high CVD risk. PMID:27612145

  6. Healthy lifestyle and normal waist circumference are associated with a lower 5-year risk of type 2 diabetes in middle-aged and elderly individuals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chu-Chih; Liu, Kiang; Hsu, Chih-Chen; Chang, Hsing-Yi; Chung, Hsiao-Chun; Liu, Jih-Shin; Liu, Yo-Hann; Tsai, Tsung-Lung; Liaw, Wen-Jin; Lin, I-Ching; Wu, Hsi-Wen; Juan, Chung-Chou; Chiu, Hou-Chang; Lee, Marion M.; Hsiung, Chao A.

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) is known to be closely associated with lifestyle and obesity and has a prevalence that increases with age. This study aimed to assess the short-term composite effect of diet, physical activity, psychosocial health, and waist circumference (WC) on the incidence of DM in the elderly and to provide a lifestyle-based predictive index. We used baseline measurements (2009–2013) of 5349 community-dwelling participants (aged 55 years and older, 52% female) of the Healthy Aging Longitudinal Study in Taiwan (HALST) for fasting plasma glucose, HbA1C, serum cholesterol, triglycerides, blood pressures, WC, and outcomes of home-visit questionnaire. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to identify participants with a healthy lifestyle (HLF: higher diet, physical activity, and psychosocial scores) and a lower WC, with cutoffs determined by the receiver-operating characteristics. A Cox regression model was applied to 3424 participants without DM at baseline by linking to their National Health Insurance records (median follow-up of 3.1 years). In total, 247 new DM cases (7.2%) were identified. The HLF and lower WC group had a relative risk (RR) of DM of 0.54 (95% CI 0.35–0.82) compared to the non-HLF and higher WC group. When stratified by the presence of impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) or metabolic syndrome (MS), only participants with IGT/MS showed significant risks (RR 0.55; 95% CI 0.33–0.92). However, except for WC, the individual lifestyle factors were nonsignificant in the overall model without PCA. A composite protective effect of HLF and normal WC on DM within 5 years was observed, especially in those with IGT or MS. Psychosocial health constituted an important lifestyle factor in the elderly. The cutoffs identified could be used as a lifestyle-based risk index for DM. Maintaining an HLF to prevent DM is especially important for the elderly. PMID:28178143

  7. Risk factors for excessive benzodiazepine use in a working age population: a nationwide 5-year survey in Norway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fride Tvete, Ingunn; Bjørner, Trine; Skomedal, Tor

    2015-01-01

    To identify risk factors for becoming an excessive user over time. Prescription database study over five years. Norwegians between 30 and 60 years with a first dispensation of a benzodiazepine during 2006, encompassing 23 227 individuals. A Cox hazard regression model was defined, initially stratifying on gender, age, county, previous relevant drug dispensations, household income, education level, and vocational rehabilitation support. The time from the first redemption until excessive use was defined as using more than two DDDs per day on average within a three-month period. Women's risk was lower than men's for excessive use (HR = 0.42, CI 0.35-0.51). Initial oxazepam, alprazolam, or nitrazepam/flunitrazepam use indicated higher risk compared with diazepam (HR = 1.51, CI 1.24-1.85, HR = 2.75, CI 1.54-4.91, HR = 1.67, CI 1.29-2.16). Previous antidepressants or lithium, antipsychotics or opioids, anti-alcohol and smoke cessation treatment indicated a higher risk compared with no such use (HR = 1.4, CI 1.16-1.69, HR = 1.92, CI 1.54-2.4, and HR = 2.88, CI 2-4.15). Higher education and average or high household income were associated with a low risk compared with low education and income (HR = 0.68, CI 0.57-0.81, HR = 0.58, CI 0.46-0.73, and HR = 0.37, CI 0.26-0.54). Working in the private or public sector was associated with a low risk compared with no registered work (HR = 0.53, CI 0.4-0.71 and HR = 0.57, CI 0.45-0.74). The prevalence of excessive use over a five-year observation period was 2.34%. Risk factors were indications of psychiatric illness, first benzodiazepine choice, low income, and education. Excessive users were also characterized by a more severe disease, indicated by having prescription fulfilments by a psychiatrist and by switching benzodiazepines. Key points Guidelines state that benzodiazepines should be used for a short time and excessive use indicates drug dependency. Of all new benzodiazepine users 2.34% became excessive users, defined as

  8. The basic mobility status upon acute hospital discharge is an independent risk factor for mortality up to 5 years after hip fracture surgery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Morten T; Kehlet, Henrik

    2017-01-01

    Background and purpose - Mortality rates following hip fracture (HF) surgery are high. We evaluated the influence of the basic mobility status on acute hospital discharge to 1- and 5-year mortality rates after HF. Patients and methods - 444 patients with HF ≥60 years (mean age 81 years, 77% women...... discharge. Results - 102 patients with a CAS year mortality was 16%; in those with CAS ...) being pre-fracture ambulatory and admitted from their own homes, were consecutively included in an in-hospital enhanced recovery program and followed for 5 years. The Cumulated Ambulation Score (CAS, 0-6 points, 6 points equals independence) was used to evaluate the basic mobility status on hospital...

  9. Cryptosporidiosis Risk in New Zealand Children Under 5 Years Old is Greatest in Areas with High Dairy Cattle Densities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lal, Aparna; Dobbins, Timothy; Bagheri, Nasser; Baker, Michael G; French, Nigel P; Hales, Simon

    2016-12-01

    The public health risks associated with dairy farming intensification are an emerging concern. We examine the association between dairy cattle density and cryptosporidiosis risk in children dairy industry. Multi-level Poisson regression was used to model reported cryptosporidiosis (N = 3869 cases) incidence in relation to dairy cattle densities across urban and rural areas separately, after controlling for microbiological quality of public drinking water supplies and neighbourhood socio-economic factors using the Census Area Unit of residence. Within urban areas, the risk of cryptosporidiosis in children less than 5 years old was significantly, positively associated with medium and high dairy cattle density IRR 1.3 (95% CI 1.2, 1.5) and 1.5 (95% CI 1.2, 1.9) respectively, when compared to areas with no dairy cattle. Within rural areas, the incidence risk of cryptosporidiosis in children less than 5 years old were significantly, positively associated with medium and high dairy cattle density: IRR 1.7 (95% CI 1.3, 2.3) and 2.0 (95% CI 1.5, 2.8) respectively, when compared to areas with no dairy cattle. These results have public health implications for children living on and in proximity to intensively stocked dairy cattle farms.

  10. Estimated Risk of Developing Selected DSM-IV Disorders among 5-Year-Old Children with Prenatal Cocaine Exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrow, Connie E.; Accornero, Veronica H.; Xue, Lihua; Manjunath, Sudha; Culbertson, Jan L.; Anthony, James C.; Bandstra, Emmalee S.

    2009-01-01

    We estimated childhood risk of developing selected DSM-IV Disorders, including Attention-Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD), Oppositional Defiant Disorder (ODD), and Separation Anxiety Disorder (SAD), in children with prenatal cocaine exposure (PCE). Children were enrolled prospectively at birth (n = 476) with prenatal drug exposures documented…

  11. Body Mass Index Genetic Risk Score and Endometrial Cancer Risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer Prescott

    Full Text Available Genome-wide association studies (GWAS have identified common variants that predispose individuals to a higher body mass index (BMI, an independent risk factor for endometrial cancer. Composite genotype risk scores (GRS based on the joint effect of published BMI risk loci were used to explore whether endometrial cancer shares a genetic background with obesity. Genotype and risk factor data were available on 3,376 endometrial cancer case and 3,867 control participants of European ancestry from the Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium GWAS. A BMI GRS was calculated by summing the number of BMI risk alleles at 97 independent loci. For exploratory analyses, additional GRSs were based on subsets of risk loci within putative etiologic BMI pathways. The BMI GRS was statistically significantly associated with endometrial cancer risk (P = 0.002. For every 10 BMI risk alleles a woman had a 13% increased endometrial cancer risk (95% CI: 4%, 22%. However, after adjusting for BMI, the BMI GRS was no longer associated with risk (per 10 BMI risk alleles OR = 0.99, 95% CI: 0.91, 1.07; P = 0.78. Heterogeneity by BMI did not reach statistical significance (P = 0.06, and no effect modification was noted by age, GWAS Stage, study design or between studies (P≥0.58. In exploratory analyses, the GRS defined by variants at loci containing monogenic obesity syndrome genes was associated with reduced endometrial cancer risk independent of BMI (per BMI risk allele OR = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.88, 0.96; P = 2.1 x 10-5. Possessing a large number of BMI risk alleles does not increase endometrial cancer risk above that conferred by excess body weight among women of European descent. Thus, the GRS based on all current established BMI loci does not provide added value independent of BMI. Future studies are required to validate the unexpected observed relation between monogenic obesity syndrome genetic variants and endometrial cancer risk.

  12. The Revolving Door Phenomenon in an Italian Acute Psychiatric Ward: A 5-Year Retrospective Analysis of the Potential Risk Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Lorenzo, Rosaria; Sagona, Marco; Landi, Giulia; Martire, Lisa; Piemonte, Chiara; Del Giovane, Cinzia

    2016-09-01

    To highlight the revolving door (RD) phenomenon in an acute psychiatric ward, we retrospectively identified the patients hospitalized three or more times in a calendar year from 1/1/2009 to 31/12/2013 as RD patients (RDP). We collected sociodemographic and clinical variables of RDP and statistically analyzed the potential RD risk factors. We divided RDP into "high" and "extremely high" utilizers and evaluated the variables related to more frequent readmissions. RDP represented 5.68% of all patients and their hospitalizations (RDH) 25% of all admissions. The statistically significant risk factors for all RDH were "disability pension," "substance abuse/dependence," "mild/severe aggressiveness," and "psychiatric and social rehabilitative programs". The comparison between "high" and "extremely high" utilizers showed that "manic episodes" and "personality disorders," among the diagnoses, "familial relational conflicts" and "violence/suicidality", among the hospitalization reasons, were statistically significant risk factors for more frequent readmissions. RD phenomenon was greatly affected by severe clinical conditions with social disability.

  13. Risk scores-the modern Oracle of Delphi?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kronenberg, Florian; Schwaiger, Johannes P

    2017-03-01

    Recently, 4 new risk scores for the prediction of mortality and cardiovascular events were especially tailored for hemodialysis patients; these scores performed much better than previous scores. Tripepi et al. found that these risk scores were even more predictive for all-cause and cardiovascular death than the measurement of the left ventricular mass index was. Nevertheless, the investigation of left ventricular mass and function has its own place for other reasons.

  14. Relation of androgen receptor gene polymorphism to bone mineral density and fracture risk in early postmenopausal women during a 5-year randomized hormone replacement therapy trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salmén, Timo; Heikkinen, Anna-Mari; Mahonen, Anitta; Kröger, Heikki; Komulainen, Marja; Pallonen, Heli; Saarikoski, Seppo; Honkanen, Risto; Mäenpää, Pekka H

    2003-02-01

    In women, the influence of androgens on bone health is not clear. It has been suggested that the androgen receptor (AR) genotype is associated with bone mineral density and serum androgen levels in pre- and perimenopausal women, but the association between AR genotype, bone mineral density, and fracture risk has not been studied in postmenopausal women. Therefore, we studied whether AR polymorphism affects bone mineral density, bone mineral density change, or fracture risk in a 5-year randomized hormone replacement therapy (HRT) trial on 331 early postmenopausal women (mean baseline age, 52.7 +/- 2.3 years). The participants consisted of two treatment groups: the HRT group (n = 151) received a sequential combination of 2 mg estradiol valerate and 1 mg cyproterone acetate with or without vitamin D3, 100-300 IU + 93 mg calcium as lactate/day, and the non-HRT group (n = 180) received 93 mg calcium alone or in combination with vitamin D3, 100-300 IU/day for 5 years. Bone mineral density was measured from lumbar spine and proximal femur (DXA) before and after the 5-year trial. All new symptomatic, radiographically defined fractures were recorded during the follow-up. The length of CAG repeat in exon 1 of AR gene was evaluated after polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplification. The subjects were divided into three repeat groups according to AR alleles. None of the baseline characteristics were associated with AR gene polymorphism and HRT treatment. The polymorphism did not influence the calculated annual changes of lumbar or femoral neck bone mineral density during the 5-year follow-up in the HRT (p = 0.926 and 0.146, respectively) or non-HRT (p = 0.818 and 0.917, respectively) groups. In all, 28 women sustained 33 fractures during the follow-up. Thus, the numbers of fractures were limited. The AR repeat length variation was not significantly associated with fracture risk in the HRT or non-HRT groups (p = 0.632 and 0.459, respectively; Cox proportional hazards model

  15. Genetic Risk Score Predicts Late-Life Cognitive Impairment

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    Mariegold E. Wollam

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. A family history of Alzheimer’s disease is a significant risk factor for its onset, but the genetic risk associated with possessing multiple risk alleles is still poorly understood. Methods. In a sample of 95 older adults (Mean age = 75.1, 64.2% female, we constructed a genetic risk score based on the accumulation of risk alleles in BDNF, COMT, and APOE. A neuropsychological evaluation and consensus determined cognitive status (44 nonimpaired, 51 impaired. Logistic regression was performed to determine whether the genetic risk score predicted cognitive impairment above and beyond that associated with each gene. Results. An increased genetic risk score was associated with a nearly 4-fold increased risk of cognitive impairment (OR = 3.824, P = .013 when including the individual gene polymorphisms as covariates in the model. Discussion. A risk score combining multiple genetic influences may be more useful in predicting late-life cognitive impairment than individual polymorphisms.

  16. RISKS MANAGEMENT. A PROPENSITY SCORE APPLICATION

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    Constangioara Alexandru

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Risk management is relatively unexplored in Romania. Although Romanian specialists dwell on theoretical aspects such as the risks classification and the important distinction between risks and uncertainty the practical relevance of the matter is outside existing studies. Present paper uses a dataset of consumer data to build a propensity scorecard based on relevant quantitative modeling.

  17. Genetic Risk Score for Essential Hypertension and Risk of Preeclampsia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Caitlin J; Saftlas, Audrey F; Spracklen, Cassandra N; Triche, Elizabeth W; Bjonnes, Andrew; Keating, Brendan; Saxena, Richa; Breheny, Patrick J; Dewan, Andrew T; Robinson, Jennifer G; Hoh, Josephine; Ryckman, Kelli K

    2016-01-01

    Preeclampsia is a hypertensive complication of pregnancy characterized by novel onset of hypertension after 20 weeks gestation, accompanied by proteinuria. Epidemiological evidence suggests that genetic susceptibility exists for preeclampsia; however, whether preeclampsia is the result of underlying genetic risk for essential hypertension has yet to be investigated. Based on the hypertensive state that is characteristic of preeclampsia, we aimed to determine if established genetic risk scores (GRSs) for hypertension and blood pressure are associated with preeclampsia. Subjects consisted of 162 preeclamptic cases and 108 normotensive pregnant controls, all of Iowa residence. Subjects' DNA was extracted from buccal swab samples and genotyped on the Affymetrix Genome-wide Human SNP Array 6.0 (Affymetrix, Santa Clara, CA). Missing genotypes were imputed using MaCH and Minimac software. GRSs were calculated for hypertension, systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), and mean arterial pressure (MAP) using established genetic risk loci for each outcome. Regression analyses were performed to determine the association between GRS and risk of preeclampsia. These analyses were replicated in an independent US population of 516 cases and 1,097 controls of European ancestry. GRSs for hypertension, SBP, DBP, and MAP were not significantly associated with risk for preeclampsia (P > 0.189). The results of the replication analysis also yielded nonsignificant associations. GRSs for hypertension and blood pressure are not associated with preeclampsia, suggesting that an underlying predisposition to essential hypertension is not on the causal pathway of preeclampsia. © American Journal of Hypertension, Ltd 2015. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  18. Polygenic risk scores for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder predict creativity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Power, R.A.; Steinberg, S.; Bjornsdottir, G.; Rietveld, C.A.; Abdellaoui, A.; Nivard, M.M.; Johannesson, M.; Galesloot, T.E.; Hottenga, J.J.; Willemsen, G.; Cesarini, D.; Benjamin, D.J.; Magnusson, P.K.; Ullen, F.; Tiemeier, H.; Hofman, A.; Rooij, F.J. van; Walters, G.B.; Sigurdsson, E.; Thorgeirsson, T.E.; Ingason, A.; Helgason, A.; Kong, A.; Kiemeney, B.; Koellinger, P.; Boomsma, D.I.; Gudbjartsson, D.; Stefansson, H.; Stefansson, K.

    2015-01-01

    We tested whether polygenic risk scores for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder would predict creativity. Higher scores were associated with artistic society membership or creative profession in both Icelandic (P = 5.2 x 10(-6) and 3.8 x 10(-6) for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder scores, respectiv

  19. Credit scores, cardiovascular disease risk, and human capital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Israel, Salomon; Caspi, Avshalom; Belsky, Daniel W; Harrington, HonaLee; Hogan, Sean; Houts, Renate; Ramrakha, Sandhya; Sanders, Seth; Poulton, Richie; Moffitt, Terrie E

    2014-12-02

    Credit scores are the most widely used instruments to assess whether or not a person is a financial risk. Credit scoring has been so successful that it has expanded beyond lending and into our everyday lives, even to inform how insurers evaluate our health. The pervasive application of credit scoring has outpaced knowledge about why credit scores are such useful indicators of individual behavior. Here we test if the same factors that lead to poor credit scores also lead to poor health. Following the Dunedin (New Zealand) Longitudinal Study cohort of 1,037 study members, we examined the association between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and the underlying factors that account for this association. We find that credit scores are negatively correlated with cardiovascular disease risk. Variation in household income was not sufficient to account for this association. Rather, individual differences in human capital factors—educational attainment, cognitive ability, and self-control—predicted both credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and accounted for ∼45% of the correlation between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk. Tracing human capital factors back to their childhood antecedents revealed that the characteristic attitudes, behaviors, and competencies children develop in their first decade of life account for a significant portion (∼22%) of the link between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk at midlife. We discuss the implications of these findings for policy debates about data privacy, financial literacy, and early childhood interventions.

  20. Credit scores, cardiovascular disease risk, and human capital

    Science.gov (United States)

    Israel, Salomon; Caspi, Avshalom; Belsky, Daniel W.; Harrington, HonaLee; Hogan, Sean; Houts, Renate; Ramrakha, Sandhya; Sanders, Seth; Poulton, Richie; Moffitt, Terrie E.

    2014-01-01

    Credit scores are the most widely used instruments to assess whether or not a person is a financial risk. Credit scoring has been so successful that it has expanded beyond lending and into our everyday lives, even to inform how insurers evaluate our health. The pervasive application of credit scoring has outpaced knowledge about why credit scores are such useful indicators of individual behavior. Here we test if the same factors that lead to poor credit scores also lead to poor health. Following the Dunedin (New Zealand) Longitudinal Study cohort of 1,037 study members, we examined the association between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and the underlying factors that account for this association. We find that credit scores are negatively correlated with cardiovascular disease risk. Variation in household income was not sufficient to account for this association. Rather, individual differences in human capital factors—educational attainment, cognitive ability, and self-control—predicted both credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and accounted for ∼45% of the correlation between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk. Tracing human capital factors back to their childhood antecedents revealed that the characteristic attitudes, behaviors, and competencies children develop in their first decade of life account for a significant portion (∼22%) of the link between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk at midlife. We discuss the implications of these findings for policy debates about data privacy, financial literacy, and early childhood interventions. PMID:25404329

  1. Prevalence and Risk Factor Analysis of Acute Respiratory tract Infections in Rural areas of Kashmir valley under 5 Years of Age

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    Abid Ali Mir

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Research Question: How important is acute respiratory tract infections in children less than 5 years of age and what are the main factors that need attention. Objective: To determine the magnitude of ARI under 5 years of age in rural areas of Kashmir valley. 2 To identify various risk factors responsible for ARI. Methodology: Community based Cross sectional study using multistage sampling procedure was used to study 1644 children. A house to house survey was carried out in the defined geographical region in order to determine the prevalence and risk factors of ARI less than 5 years of age. Results: Among 1644 children under 5 years of age studied, 886 (53.89% were males and 758 (46.11% female. An overall prevalence of 21.41% under 5 years of age was observed in a Kashmir valley. The prevalence of ARI varied according to the age of child being 19.3% in age group of 0–1 years, 23.0% in 1–3 years and 20.4% in age group of 3–5 years. Prevalence of ARI was more (22.5% in male children as compared to female (20.05% children [P>0.05]. The socio demographic variables that showed a significant relationship with ARI prevalence were parental literacy status (OR = 1.806; CI = 1.333 – 2.447; P < 0.05 and more so the Mother’s literacy status (OR = 1.635; CI = 1.284 – 2.083; P < 0.05. ARI risk being high among Malnourished children (OR = 2.38; CI = 1.804 – 3.157; P<0.05, inappropriately immunized children (OR=2.41; CI = 1.853 – 3.154, P<0.05, children lacking exclusive Breast feeding (OR = 4.854; CI = 3.735 – 6.309; P< 0.05 or put on early or delayed weaning (OR = 1.66; CI = 1.302 – 2.140; P < 0.05. Environmental / housing variables also showed significant association with ARI with risk being high in children living in poor ventilation (OR = 4.865; CI = 3.78 – 6.259; P < 0.05, overcrowded houses (OR = 1.829; CI = 1.442 – 2.320; P < 0.05, houses with kitchen not separate (OR = 1.829, CI = 1.442 – 5.481, P < 0.05, and using cooking fuel

  2. Investigating the Influences of Language Delay and/or Familial Risk for Dyslexia on Brain Structure in 5-Year-Olds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raschle, Nora Maria; Becker, Bryce Larkin Chessell; Smith, Sara; Fehlbaum, Lynn Valérie; Wang, Yingying; Gaab, Nadine

    2017-01-01

    Early language delay has often been associated with atypical language/literacy development. Neuroimaging studies further indicate functional disruptions during language and print processing in school-age children with a retrospective report of early language delay. Behavioral data of 114 5-year-olds with a retrospective report of early language delay in infancy (N = 34) and those without (N = 80) and with a familial risk for dyslexia and those without are presented. Behaviorally, children with a retrospective report of early language delay exhibited reduced performance in language/reading-related measures. A voxel-based morphometry analysis in a subset (N = 46) demonstrated an association between reduced gray matter volume and early language delay in left-hemispheric middle temporal, occipital, and frontal regions. Alterations in middle temporal cortex in children with a retrospective report of early language delay were observed regardless of familial risk for dyslexia. Additionally, while children with isolated familial risk for dyslexia showed gray matter reductions in temporoparietal and occipitotemporal regions, these effects were most profound in children with both risk factors. An interaction effect of early language delay and familial risk was revealed in temporoparietal, occipital, and frontal cortex. Our findings support a cumulative effect of early behavioral and genetic risk factors on brain development and may ultimately inform diagnosis/treatment. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  3. Effect of early and current Helicobacter pylori infection on the risk of anaemia in 6.5-year-old Ethiopian children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taye, Bineyam; Enquselassie, Fikre; Tsegaye, Aster; Amberbir, Alemayehu; Medhin, Girmay; Fogarty, Andrew; Robinson, Karen; Davey, Gail

    2015-07-14

    Epidemiological and clinical studies in high income countries have suggested that Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) may cause anaemia, but evidence is lacking from low income countries.We examined associations between H. pylori infection in early childhood and anaemia at the age of 6.5 years in an Ethiopian birth cohort. In 2011/12, 856 children (85.1 % of the 1006 original singletons in a population-based birth cohort) were followed up at age six and half. An interviewer-led questionnaire administered to mothers provided information on demographic and lifestyle variables. Haemoglobin level and red cell indices were examined using an automated haematological analyzer (Cell Dyn 1800, Abbott, USA), and stool samples analyzed for H. pylori antigen. The independent effects of H. pylori infection (measured at age 3.5 and 6.5 years) on anaemia, haemoglobin level, and red cell indices (measured at age 6.5 years) were determined using multiple logistic and linear regression. The prevalence of anemia was 34.8 % (257/739), and the mean (SD) haemoglobin concentration was 11.8 (1.1) gm/dl. Current H. pylori infection at age 6.5 years was positively, though not significantly related to prevalence of anaemia (adjusted OR, 95 % CI, 1.15; 0.69, 1.93, p = 0.59). Any H. pylori infection up to age 6.5 years was significantly associated with an increased risk of anaemia at age 6.5 (adjusted OR, 95 % CI, 1.68; 1.22, 2.32, p = 0.01). A significant reduction in haemoglobin concentration and red cell indices was also observed among children who had any H. pylori infection up to age 6.5 (Hb adjusted β = -0.19, 95 % CI, -0.35 to -0.03, p = 0.01; MCV adjusted β = -2.22, 95 % CI, -3.43 to -1.01, p = 0.01; MCH adjusted β = -0.63, 95 % CI, -1.15 to - 0.12, p = 0.01; and MCHC adjusted β = -0.67, 95 % CI, -1.21 to -0.14, p = 0.01), respectively. This study provides further evidence from a low income country that any H. pylori infection up to age 6.5 is associated with higher prevalence

  4. CORRELATION OF MRI GRADING OF BONE STRESS INJURIES WITH CLINICAL RISK FACTORS AND RETURN TO PLAY: A 5-YEAR PROSPECTIVE STUDY IN COLLEGIATE TRACK AND FIELD ATHLETES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nattiv, Aurelia; Kennedy, Gannon; Barrack, Michelle T.; Abdelkerim, Ashraf; Goolsby, Marci A.; Arends, Julie C.; Seeger, Leanne L.

    2015-01-01

    Background Bone stress injuries are common in track and field athletes. Knowledge of risk factors and correlation of these to magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) grading could be helpful in determining recovery time. Purpose To examine the relationships between MRI grading of bone stress injury with clinical risk factors and time to return to sport in collegiate track and field athletes. Study Design Prospective cohort over 5 years. Methods Two hundred and eleven male and female collegiate track and field and cross-country athletes were followed prospectively through their competitive seasons. All athletes had a pre-participation history, physical exam, and anthropometric measurements obtained annually. An additional questionnaire was completed regarding nutritional behaviors, menstrual patterns and prior injuries, as well as a 3-day diet record. Dual energy X-ray absorptiometry was obtained at baseline and each year of participation in the study. Athletes with clinical evidence of bone stress injuries had plain radiographs. If radiographs were negative, MRI was obtained. Bone stress injuries were evaluated by two independent radiologists utilizing an MRI grading system. MRI grading and risk factors were evaluated to identify predictors of time to return to sport. Results Thirty-four (12 males, 22 females) of the 211 collegiate athletes sustained 61 bone stress injuries during the 5-year study period. The average prospective assessment for participants was 2.1 years. MRI grade and total body bone mineral density (BMD) emerged as significant and independent predictors of time to return to sport in the multiple regression model. Specifically, the higher the MRI grade, the longer the recovery time (psport. Conclusions Higher MRI grade, lower BMD, and skeletal sites of predominant trabecular bone structure were independently associated with delayed recovery of bone stress injuries in track and field athletes. Knowledge of these risk factors, as well as nutritional and

  5. Similar risk reduction of death of extended-release metoprolol once daily and immediate-release metoprolol twice daily during 5 years after myocardial infarction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herlitz, J; Dellborg, M; Karlson, B W; Lindqvist, J; Sandèn, W; Svensson, H; Sjölin, M; Wedel, H

    1999-04-01

    The pooled results from five placebo-controlled postinfarction studies with metoprolol have shown a significant reduction in total mortality. All five studies used immediate-release metoprolol twice daily. An extended-release formulation of metoprolol for once-daily use has since been developed. The aim of the present study was to compare the two different forms of metoprolol with regard to the risk reduction of death for 5 years postinfarction and to analyze whether treatment with the beta-blocker metoprolol is associated with a reduced mortality after the introduction of modern therapies such as thrombolysis, aspirin, and ACE inhibitors. All patients discharged after an acute myocardial infarction (AMI) from Sahlgrenska University Hospital (SU) during 1986-1987 (n = 740, Period I) and during 1990-1991 (n = 1446, Period II) from both SU and Ostra Hospital, Göteborg, Sweden, were included in the study. During Period I, 56% were prescribed immediate-release metoprolol compared with 61% prescribed extended-release metoprolol during Period II. Immediate-release metoprolol was not available for outpatient use during Period II. In a multivariate analysis, all variables significantly associated with either increased or decreased postinfarction mortality during Periods I and II (univariate analysis of patient characteristics, medical history, complications during the AMI medication at discharge) studied were with Cox's proportional hazards model. Treatment with immediate-release metoprolol was significantly associated with reduced mortality over 5 years during Period I (relative risk reduction for total mortality, -34%, P = 0.003; 95% CI for RR, 0.51-0.87), and treatment with extended-release metoprolol was significantly associated with reduced mortality during Period II (-34%, P metoprolol given once daily was associated with a similar risk reduction of death over 5 years as immediate-release metoprolol given twice daily. The data, furthermore, indicate that the beta

  6. Beyond Statistics: The Economic Content of Risk Scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Einav, Liran; Finkelstein, Amy; Kluender, Raymond; Schrimpf, Paul

    2016-04-01

    "Big data" and statistical techniques to score potential transactions have transformed insurance and credit markets. In this paper, we observe that these widely-used statistical scores summarize a much richer heterogeneity, and may be endogenous to the context in which they get applied. We demonstrate this point empirically using data from Medicare Part D, showing that risk scores confound underlying health and endogenous spending response to insurance. We then illustrate theoretically that when individuals have heterogeneous behavioral responses to contracts, strategic incentives for cream skimming can still exist, even in the presence of "perfect" risk scoring under a given contract.

  7. Establishing a risk scoring system for predicting erosive esophagitis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hung-Hsu Hung

    2016-09-01

    Conclusion: This simple noninvasive risk scoring system, including factors of age, gender, body mass index, waist circumference, triglyceride, and high-density lipid cholesterol, effectively predicted EE and stratified its incidence.

  8. Genetic Predisposition to Ischemic Stroke: A Polygenic Risk Score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hachiya, Tsuyoshi; Kamatani, Yoichiro; Takahashi, Atsushi; Hata, Jun; Furukawa, Ryohei; Shiwa, Yuh; Yamaji, Taiki; Hara, Megumi; Tanno, Kozo; Ohmomo, Hideki; Ono, Kanako; Takashima, Naoyuki; Matsuda, Koichi; Wakai, Kenji; Sawada, Norie; Iwasaki, Motoki; Yamagishi, Kazumasa; Ago, Tetsuro; Ninomiya, Toshiharu; Fukushima, Akimune; Hozawa, Atsushi; Minegishi, Naoko; Satoh, Mamoru; Endo, Ryujin; Sasaki, Makoto; Sakata, Kiyomi; Kobayashi, Seiichiro; Ogasawara, Kuniaki; Nakamura, Motoyuki; Hitomi, Jiro; Kita, Yoshikuni; Tanaka, Keitaro; Iso, Hiroyasu; Kitazono, Takanari; Kubo, Michiaki; Tanaka, Hideo; Tsugane, Shoichiro; Kiyohara, Yutaka; Yamamoto, Masayuki; Sobue, Kenji; Shimizu, Atsushi

    2017-02-01

    The prediction of genetic predispositions to ischemic stroke (IS) may allow the identification of individuals at elevated risk and thereby prevent IS in clinical practice. Previously developed weighted multilocus genetic risk scores showed limited predictive ability for IS. Here, we investigated the predictive ability of a newer method, polygenic risk score (polyGRS), based on the idea that a few strong signals, as well as several weaker signals, can be collectively informative to determine IS risk. We genotyped 13 214 Japanese individuals with IS and 26 470 controls (derivation samples) and generated both multilocus genetic risk scores and polyGRS, using the same derivation data set. The predictive abilities of each scoring system were then assessed using 2 independent sets of Japanese samples (KyushuU and JPJM data sets). In both validation data sets, polyGRS was shown to be significantly associated with IS, but weighted multilocus genetic risk scores was not. Comparing the highest with the lowest polyGRS quintile, the odds ratios for IS were 1.75 (95% confidence interval, 1.33-2.31) and 1.99 (95% confidence interval, 1.19-3.33) in the KyushuU and JPJM samples, respectively. Using the KyushuU samples, the addition of polyGRS to a nongenetic risk model resulted in a significant improvement of the predictive ability (net reclassification improvement=0.151; Pgenetic risk scores as an IS prediction model. Thus, together with the nongenetic risk factors, polyGRS will provide valuable information for individual risk assessment and management of modifiable risk factors. © 2016 The Authors.

  9. Risk Factors for Long-Term Mortality after Hospitalization for Community-Acquired Pneumonia: A 5-Year Prospective Follow-Up Study.

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    Jan C Holter

    Full Text Available Contributors to long-term mortality in patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP remain unclear, with little attention paid to pneumonia etiology. We examined long-term survival, causes of death, and risk factors for long-term mortality in adult patients who had been hospitalized for CAP, with emphasis on demographic, clinical, laboratory, and microbiological characteristics.Two hundred and sixty-seven consecutive patients admitted in 2008-2011 to a general hospital with CAP were prospectively recruited and followed up. Patients who died during hospital stay were excluded. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data were collected within 48 hours of admission. Extensive microbiological work-up was performed to establish the etiology of CAP in 63% of patients. Mortality data were obtained from the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry. Cox regression models were used to identify independent risk factors for all-cause mortality.Of 259 hospital survivors of CAP (median age 66 years, 79 (30.5% died over a median of 1,804 days (range 1-2,520 days. Cumulative 5-year survival rate was 72.9% (95% CI 67.4-78.4%. Standardized mortality ratio was 2.90 for men and 2.05 for women. The main causes of death were chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD, vascular diseases, and malignancy. Independent risk factors for death were the following (hazard ratio, 95% CI: age (1.83 per decade, 1.47-2.28, cardiovascular disease (2.63, 1.61-4.32, COPD (2.09, 1.27-3.45, immunocompromization (1.98, 1.17-3.37, and low serum albumin level at admission (0.75 per 5 g/L higher, 0.58-0.96, whereas active smoking was protective (0.32, 0.14-0.74; active smokers were younger than non-smokers (P < 0.001. Microbial etiology did not predict mortality.Results largely confirm substantial comorbidity-related 5-year mortality after hospitalization for CAP and the impact of several well-known risk factors for death, and extend previous findings on the prognostic value of serum albumin

  10. Risk factors for death among children less than 5 years old hospitalized with diarrhea in rural western Kenya, 2005-2007: a cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ciara E O'Reilly

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Diarrhea is a leading cause of childhood morbidity and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. Data on risk factors for mortality are limited. We conducted hospital-based surveillance to characterize the etiology of diarrhea and identify risk factors for death among children hospitalized with diarrhea in rural western Kenya. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We enrolled all children <5 years old, hospitalized with diarrhea (≥3 loose stools in 24 hours at two district hospitals in Nyanza Province, western Kenya. Clinical and demographic information was collected. Stool specimens were tested for bacterial and viral pathogens. Bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were carried out to identify risk factors for death. From May 23, 2005 to May 22, 2007, 1,146 children <5 years old were enrolled; 107 (9% children died during hospitalization. Nontyphoidal Salmonella were identified in 10% (118, Campylobacter in 5% (57, and Shigella in 4% (42 of 1,137 stool samples; rotavirus was detected in 19% (196 of 1,021 stool samples. Among stools from children who died, nontyphoidal Salmonella were detected in 22%, Shigella in 11%, rotavirus in 9%, Campylobacter in 5%, and S. Typhi in <1%. In multivariable analysis, infants who died were more likely to have nontyphoidal Salmonella (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 6·8; 95% CI 3·1-14·9, and children <5 years to have Shigella (aOR = 5·5; 95% CI 2·2-14·0 identified than children who survived. Children who died were less likely to be infected with rotavirus (OR = 0·4; 95% CI 0·2-0·8. Further risk factors for death included being malnourished (aOR = 4·2; 95% CI 2·1-8·7; having oral thrush on physical exam (aOR = 2·3; 95% CI 1·4-3·8; having previously sought care at a hospital for the illness (aOR = 2·2; 95% CI 1·2-3·8; and being dehydrated as diagnosed at discharge/death (aOR = 2·5; 95% CI 1·5-4·1. A clinical diagnosis of malaria, and malaria parasites seen on

  11. Evaluating Damage Potential in Security Risk Scoring Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eli Weintraub

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available A Continuous Monitoring System (CMS model is presented, having new improved capabilities. The system is based on the actual real-time configuration of the system. Existing risk scoring models assume damage potential is estimated by systems' owner, thus rejecting the information relying in the technological configuration. The assumption underlying this research is based on users' ability to estimate business impacts relating to systems' external interfaces which they use regularly in their business activities, but are unable to assess business impacts relating to internal technological components. According to the proposed model systems' damage potential is calculated using technical information on systems' components using a directed graph. The graph is incorporated into the Common Vulnerability Scoring Systems' (CVSS algorithm to produce risk scoring measures. Framework presentation includes system design, damage potential scoring algorithm design and an illustration of scoring computations.

  12. Risk for High Depressive Symptoms in Diagnosed and Previously Undetected Diabetes: 5-Year Follow-Up Results of the Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Icks, Andrea; Albers, Bernd; Haastert, Burkhard; Pechlivanis, Sonali; Pundt, Noreen; Slomiany, Uta; Erbel, Raimund; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Kruse, Johannes; Kulzer, Bernd; Nowotny, Bettina; Herder, Christian; Giani, Guido; Moebus, Susanne

    2013-01-01

    Objective The objective of this study was to determine the risk for the development of high depressive symptoms in study participants with diagnosed and previously undetected diabetes mellitus compared to those without diabetes in a prospective population-based cohort study in Germany. Methods We estimated the 5-year cumulative incidence of high depressive symptoms in participants without high depressive symptoms at baseline (n = 3,633, 51.4% men, mean age (SD) 59.1 (7.6) years, 7.0% diagnosed diabetes, 5.3% previously undetected diabetes) from the population-based Heinz Nixdorf Recall study. Diabetes was assessed by self-report, medication, and blood glucose. High depressive symptoms were assessed using CES-D. We calculated odds ratios and their corresponding 95% confidence interval, using multiple logistic regression analyses. Result Cumulative 5-year incidences (95% CI) of high depressive symptoms in participants with diagnosed, undetected, and without diabetes were 7.1 (4.2–10.9), 4.1 (1.8–8.0), and 6.5 (5.6–7.4), respectively. The age-sex-adjusted OR for developing high depressive symptoms was 1.22 (0.74–2.03) in participants with diagnosed compared to those without diabetes, and 1.00 (0.59–1.68) after adjustment for BMI, physical activity, education, stroke, and myocardial infarction. The age-sex adjusted OR for developing high depressive symptoms in participants with previously undetected diabetes compared to those without diabetes was 0.72; 0.35–1.48; and fully adjusted 0.62; 0.30–1.30. Conclusion We found no significant associations, maybe due to low power. However, our results are in line with a recent meta-analysis suggesting that risk of developing high depressive symptoms in patients with diagnosed diabetes may be moderately higher than in those without diabetes, and that comorbidity may explain in part this association. In participants with previously undetected diabetes, this first longitudinal study indicates that the risk is not

  13. Risk for high depressive symptoms in diagnosed and previously undetected diabetes: 5-year follow-up results of the Heinz Nixdorf Recall study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Icks

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to determine the risk for the development of high depressive symptoms in study participants with diagnosed and previously undetected diabetes mellitus compared to those without diabetes in a prospective population-based cohort study in Germany. METHODS: We estimated the 5-year cumulative incidence of high depressive symptoms in participants without high depressive symptoms at baseline (n = 3,633, 51.4% men, mean age (SD 59.1 (7.6 years, 7.0% diagnosed diabetes, 5.3% previously undetected diabetes from the population-based Heinz Nixdorf Recall study. Diabetes was assessed by self-report, medication, and blood glucose. High depressive symptoms were assessed using CES-D. We calculated odds ratios and their corresponding 95% confidence interval, using multiple logistic regression analyses. RESULT: Cumulative 5-year incidences (95% CI of high depressive symptoms in participants with diagnosed, undetected, and without diabetes were 7.1 (4.2-10.9, 4.1 (1.8-8.0, and 6.5 (5.6-7.4, respectively. The age-sex-adjusted OR for developing high depressive symptoms was 1.22 (0.74-2.03 in participants with diagnosed compared to those without diabetes, and 1.00 (0.59-1.68 after adjustment for BMI, physical activity, education, stroke, and myocardial infarction. The age-sex adjusted OR for developing high depressive symptoms in participants with previously undetected diabetes compared to those without diabetes was 0.72; 0.35-1.48; and fully adjusted 0.62; 0.30-1.30. CONCLUSION: We found no significant associations, maybe due to low power. However, our results are in line with a recent meta-analysis suggesting that risk of developing high depressive symptoms in patients with diagnosed diabetes may be moderately higher than in those without diabetes, and that comorbidity may explain in part this association. In participants with previously undetected diabetes, this first longitudinal study indicates that the risk is not

  14. Depression symptoms are persistent in Type 2 diabetes: risk factors and outcomes of 5-year depression trajectories using latent class growth analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitworth, S R; Bruce, D G; Starkstein, S E; Davis, W A; Davis, T M E; Skinner, T C; Bucks, R S

    2017-08-01

    To describe the long-term trajectories of depression symptom severity in people with Type 2 diabetes, and to identify predictors and associates of these trajectories. A community-dwelling cohort of 1201 individuals with Type 2 diabetes from the Fremantle Diabetes Study Phase II was followed for 5 years. The nine-item version of the Patient Health Questionnaire was administered annually to assess depression symptoms, and biomedical and psychosocial measures were assessed at baseline and biennially. Latent class growth analysis was used to identify classes of depression severity trajectories and associated outcomes, and logistic regression models were used to determine predictors of class membership. Three trajectories of depression symptoms were identified: continuously low depression symptoms (85.2%); gradually worsening symptoms that then began to improve (persistent depression - low-start; 7.3%); and gradually improving symptoms which later worsened (persistent depression - high-start; 7.5%). Younger age, being a woman, and a lifetime history of major depressive disorder, were associated with greater risk of persistent depression symptoms. Persistent depression was associated with consistently higher BMI over time, but not with changes in HbA1c or self-monitoring of blood glucose. A subset of individuals with Type 2 diabetes is at risk of depression symptoms that remain elevated over time. Younger, overweight individuals with a history of depression may benefit from early and intensive depression management and ongoing follow-up as part of routine Type 2 diabetes care. © 2017 Diabetes UK.

  15. Predicting Reoffending Using the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY): A 5-Year Follow-Up Study of Male Juvenile Offenders in Hunan Province, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Jiansong; Witt, Katrina; Cao, Xia; Chen, Chen; Wang, Xiaoping

    2017-01-01

    Background Juvenile violent offending is a serious worldwide public health issue. Objective The study examined whether the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) can be used to predict violent reoffending in Chinese male juvenile offenders, and to determine which risk/protective domains (items) are associated with violent recidivism. Methods A total of 246 male juvenile offenders were recruited. SAVRY domains were scored by trained raters based on file review and interviews with participants and their legal guardians. Information on further arrests, charges, or convictions for violent offences were collected from police records over a five year follow-up. Results Over the course of the five year follow-up periods, 63 (25.6%) juvenile offenders were re-arrested for a further violent reoffence. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analyses showed Areas Under the Curve (AUCs) ranging from 0.60 to 0.68 for the SAVRY total, risk and protective score domains. Univariate logistic regression analysis showed that 7 of the 30 SAVRY items were significantly associated with reoffending; explaining 36.2% of the variance. Backward stepwise multiple logistic regression analysis showed the independently predictive items were items 2 (‘history of non-violent offending’), 17 (‘negative attitudes’), 18 (‘risk-taking/impulsivity’), and 20 (‘anger management problems’). Together these four items explained 25.0% of the variance in reoffending. Conclusions The results suggested that the SAVRY can be meaningfully used to inform the development and evaluation of effective violence risk assessment and management approaches for male juvenile offenders detained in a Youth Detention Center in Hunan province, China. PMID:28076443

  16. Importance of time in therapeutic range on bleeding risk prediction using clinical risk scores in patients with atrial fibrillation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivera-Caravaca, José Miguel; Roldán, Vanessa; Esteve-Pastor, María Asunción; Valdés, Mariano; Vicente, Vicente; Lip, Gregory Y H; Marín, Francisco

    2017-09-21

    Bleeding risk with vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) is closely related to the quality of anticoagulation in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients, reflected by time in therapeutic range (TTR). Here we compared the discrimination performance of different bleeding risk scores and investigated if adding TTR would improve their predictive value and clinical usefulness. We included 1361 AF patients stables on VKA for at least 6 months. Bleeding risk was assessed by the HAS-BLED, ATRIA, ORBIT and HEMORR2HAGES scores. Major bleeding events were recorded after a median of 6.5 years follow-up. In this period 250 patients suffered major bleeds. Comparison of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves demonstrated that HAS-BLED had the best discrimination performance, but adding the 'labile INR' criteria (i.e. TTR <65%) to ATRIA, ORBIT and HEMORR2HAGES increased their ability of discrimination and predictive value, with significant improvements in reclassification and discriminatory performance. Decision curve analyses (DCA) showed improvements of the clinical usefulness and a net benefit of the modified risk scores. In summary, in AF patients taking VKAs, the HAS-BLED score had the best predictive ability. Adding 'labile INR' to ATRIA, ORBIT and HEMORR2HAGES improved their predictive value for major bleeding leading to improved clinical usefulness compared to the original scores.

  17. The Impact of EuroSCORE II Risk Factors on Prediction of Long-Term Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barili, Fabio; Pacini, Davide; D'Ovidio, Mariangela; Dang, Nicholas C; Alamanni, Francesco; Di Bartolomeo, Roberto; Grossi, Claudio; Davoli, Marina; Fusco, Danilo; Parolari, Alessandro

    2016-10-01

    The European System for Cardiac Operation Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II has not been tested yet for predicting long-term mortality. This study was undertaken to evaluate the relationship between EuroSCORE II and long-term mortality and to develop a new algorithm based on EuroSCORE II factors to predict long-term survival after cardiac surgery. Complete data on 10,033 patients who underwent major cardiac surgery during a 7-year period were retrieved from three prospective institutional databases and linked with the Italian Tax Register Information System. Mortality at follow-up was analyzed with time-to-event analysis. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival at 1 and 5 were, respectively, 95.0% ± 0.2% and 84.7% ± 0.4%. Both discrimination and calibration of EuroSCORE II decreased in the prediction of 1-year and 5-year mortality. Nonetheless, EuroSCORE II was confirmed to be an independent predictor of long-term mortality with a nonlinear trend. Several EuroSCORE II variables were independent risk factors for long-term mortality in a regression model, most of all very low ejection fraction (less than 20%), salvage operation, and dialysis. In the final model, isolated mitral valve surgery and isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery were associated with improved long-term survival. The EuroSCORE II cannot be considered a direct estimator of long-term risk of death, as its performance fades for mortality at follow-up longer than 30 days. Nonetheless, it is nonlinearly associated with long-term mortality, and most of its variables are risk factors for long-term mortality. Hence, they can be used in a different algorithm to stratify the risk of long-term mortality after surgery. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Polygenic risk scores for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder predict creativity.

    OpenAIRE

    Power, Robert A.; Steinberg, Stacy; Bjornsdottir, Gyda; Rietveld, Cornelius A.; Abdellaoui, Abdel; Nivard, Michel M; Johannesson, Magnus; Galesloot, Tessel E.; Hottenga, Jouke J.; Willemsen, Gonneke; Cesarini, David; Benjamin, Daniel J.; Magnusson, Patrik K. E.; Ullén, Fredrik; Tiemeier, Henning

    2015-01-01

    To access publisher's full text version of this article click on the hyperlink at the bottom of the page We tested whether polygenic risk scores for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder would predict creativity. Higher scores were associated with artistic society membership or creative profession in both Icelandic (P = 5.2 × 10(-6) and 3.8 × 10(-6) for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder scores, respectively) and replication cohorts (P = 0.0021 and 0.00086). This could not be accounted for by...

  19. Polygenic risk scores for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder predict creativity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Power, Robert A; Steinberg, Stacy; Bjornsdottir, Gyda; Rietveld, Cornelius A; Abdellaoui, Abdel; Nivard, Michel M; Johannesson, Magnus; Galesloot, Tessel E; Hottenga, Jouke J; Willemsen, Gonneke; Cesarini, David; Benjamin, Daniel J; Magnusson, Patrik K E; Ullén, Fredrik; Tiemeier, Henning; Hofman, Albert; van Rooij, Frank J A; Walters, G Bragi; Sigurdsson, Engilbert; Thorgeirsson, Thorgeir E; Ingason, Andres; Helgason, Agnar; Kong, Augustine; Kiemeney, Lambertus A; Koellinger, Philipp; Boomsma, Dorret I; Gudbjartsson, Daniel; Stefansson, Hreinn; Stefansson, Kari

    2015-07-01

    We tested whether polygenic risk scores for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder would predict creativity. Higher scores were associated with artistic society membership or creative profession in both Icelandic (P = 5.2 × 10(-6) and 3.8 × 10(-6) for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder scores, respectively) and replication cohorts (P = 0.0021 and 0.00086). This could not be accounted for by increased relatedness between creative individuals and those with psychoses, indicating that creativity and psychosis share genetic roots.

  20. Correlation of MRI grading of bone stress injuries with clinical risk factors and return to play: a 5-year prospective study in collegiate track and field athletes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nattiv, Aurelia; Kennedy, Gannon; Barrack, Michelle T; Abdelkerim, Ashraf; Goolsby, Marci A; Arends, Julie C; Seeger, Leanne L

    2013-08-01

    Bone stress injuries are common in track and field athletes. Knowledge of risk factors and correlation of these to magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) grading could be helpful in determining recovery time. To examine the relationships between MRI grading of bone stress injuries with clinical risk factors and time to return to sport in collegiate track and field athletes. Cohort study (prognosis); Level of evidence, 2. A total of 211 male and female collegiate track and field and cross-country athletes were followed prospectively through their competitive seasons. All athletes had preparticipation history, physical examination, and anthropometric measurements obtained annually. An additional questionnaire was completed regarding nutritional behaviors, menstrual patterns, and prior injuries, as well as a 3-day diet record. Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry was performed at baseline and each year of participation in the study. Athletes with clinical evidence of bone stress injuries had plain radiographs. If radiograph findings were negative, MRI was performed. Bone stress injuries were evaluated by 2 independent radiologists utilizing an MRI grading system. The MRI grading and risk factors were evaluated to identify predictors of time to return to sport. Thirty-four of the athletes (12 men, 22 women) sustained 61 bone stress injuries during the 5-year study period. The mean prospective assessment for participants was 2.7 years. In the multiple regression model, MRI grade and total-body bone mineral density (BMD) emerged as significant and independent predictors of time to return to sport. Specifically, the higher the MRI grade (P = .004) and lower the BMD (P = .030), the longer the recovery time. Location of the bone injury at predominantly trabecular sites of the femoral neck, pubic bone, and sacrum was also associated with a prolonged time to return to sport. Female athletes with oligomenorrhea and amenorrhea had bone stress injuries of higher MRI grades compared with

  1. Early Cannabis Use, Polygenic Risk Score for Schizophrenia and Brain Maturation in Adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    French, Leon; Gray, Courtney; Leonard, Gabriel; Perron, Michel; Pike, G Bruce; Richer, Louis; Séguin, Jean R; Veillette, Suzanne; Evans, C John; Artiges, Eric; Banaschewski, Tobias; Bokde, Arun W L; Bromberg, Uli; Bruehl, Ruediger; Buchel, Christian; Cattrell, Anna; Conrod, Patricia J; Flor, Herta; Frouin, Vincent; Gallinat, Jurgen; Garavan, Hugh; Gowland, Penny; Heinz, Andreas; Lemaitre, Herve; Martinot, Jean-Luc; Nees, Frauke; Orfanos, Dimitri Papadopoulos; Pangelinan, Melissa Marie; Poustka, Luise; Rietschel, Marcella; Smolka, Michael N; Walter, Henrik; Whelan, Robert; Timpson, Nic J; Schumann, Gunter; Smith, George Davey; Pausova, Zdenka; Paus, Tomáš

    2015-10-01

    Cannabis use during adolescence is known to increase the risk for schizophrenia in men. Sex differences in the dynamics of brain maturation during adolescence may be of particular importance with regard to vulnerability of the male brain to cannabis exposure. To evaluate whether the association between cannabis use and cortical maturation in adolescents is moderated by a polygenic risk score for schizophrenia. Observation of 3 population-based samples included initial analysis in 1024 adolescents of both sexes from the Canadian Saguenay Youth Study (SYS) and follow-up in 426 adolescents of both sexes from the IMAGEN Study from 8 European cities and 504 male youth from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) based in England. A total of 1577 participants (aged 12-21 years; 899 [57.0%] male) had (1) information about cannabis use; (2) imaging studies of the brain; and (3) a polygenic risk score for schizophrenia across 108 genetic loci identified by the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium. Data analysis was performed from March 1 through December 31, 2014. Cortical thickness derived from T1-weighted magnetic resonance images. Linear regression tests were used to assess the relationships between cannabis use, cortical thickness, and risk score. Across the 3 samples of 1574 participants, a negative association was observed between cannabis use in early adolescence and cortical thickness in male participants with a high polygenic risk score. This observation was not the case for low-risk male participants or for the low- or high-risk female participants. Thus, in SYS male participants, cannabis use interacted with risk score vis-à-vis cortical thickness (P = .009); higher scores were associated with lower thickness only in males who used cannabis. Similarly, in the IMAGEN male participants, cannabis use interacted with increased risk score vis-à-vis a change in decreasing cortical thickness from 14.5 to 18.5 years of age (t137 = -2.36; P

  2. Predicting stroke through genetic risk functions the CHARGE risk score project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C.A. Ibrahim-Verbaas (Carla); M. Fornage (Myriam); J.C. Bis (Joshua); S.-H. Choi (Seung-Hoan); B.M. Psaty (Bruce); J.B. Meigs (James); M. Rao (Madhu); M.A. Nalls (Michael); M. Fontes (Michel); C.J. O'Donnell (Christopher); S. Kathiresan (Sekar); G.B. Ehret (Georg); C.S. Fox (Caroline); R. Malik (Rainer); C. Kubisch (Christian); R. Schmidt (Reinhold); J. Lahti (Jari); S.R. Heckbert (Susan); T. Lumley (Thomas); K.M. Rice (Kenneth); J.I. Rotter (Jerome); K.D. Taylor (Kent); A.R. Folsom (Aaron); E.A. Boerwinkle (Eric); W.D. Rosamond (Wayne); E. Shahar (Eyal); R.F. Gottesman (Rebecca); P.J. Koudstaal (Peter Jan); N. Amin (Najaf); R.G. Wieberdink (Renske); A. Dehghan (Abbas); A. Hofman (Albert); A.G. Uitterlinden (André); A.L. DeStefano (Anita); S. Debette (Stéphanie); L. Xue (Luting); A. Beiser (Alexa); P.A. Wolf (Philip); C. DeCarli (Charles); M.A. Ikram (Arfan); S. Seshadri (Sudha); T.H. Mosley (Thomas); W.T. Longstreth Jr; C.M. van Duijn (Cock); L.J. Launer (Lenore)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractBackground and Purpose - Beyond the Framingham Stroke Risk Score, prediction of future stroke may improve with a genetic risk score (GRS) based on single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with stroke and its risk factors. Methods - The study includes 4 population-based cohorts with 204

  3. A Soft Intelligent Risk Evaluation Model for Credit Scoring Classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehdi Khashei

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Risk management is one of the most important branches of business and finance. Classification models are the most popular and widely used analytical group of data mining approaches that can greatly help financial decision makers and managers to tackle credit risk problems. However, the literature clearly indicates that, despite proposing numerous classification models, credit scoring is often a difficult task. On the other hand, there is no universal credit-scoring model in the literature that can be accurately and explanatorily used in all circumstances. Therefore, the research for improving the efficiency of credit-scoring models has never stopped. In this paper, a hybrid soft intelligent classification model is proposed for credit-scoring problems. In the proposed model, the unique advantages of the soft computing techniques are used in order to modify the performance of the traditional artificial neural networks in credit scoring. Empirical results of Australian credit card data classifications indicate that the proposed hybrid model outperforms its components, and also other classification models presented for credit scoring. Therefore, the proposed model can be considered as an appropriate alternative tool for binary decision making in business and finance, especially in high uncertainty conditions.

  4. Association between T102C 5-HT2A receptor gene polymorphism and 5-year mortality risk among Brazilian Amazon riparian elderly population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Tális O; Jung, Ivo; Trott, Alexis; Bica, Cláudia G; Casarin, Jeferson N; Fortuna, Paola C; Ribeiro, Euler E; de Assis, Fernanda D; Figueira, Guilherme C; Barbisan, Fernanda; Fernanda Manica-Cattani, Maria; Bonadiman, Beatriz S R; Houenou, Lucien J; Prado-Lima, Pedro Antônio S do; da Cruz, Ivana B M

    2017-05-10

    Serotonin (5-HT) is a pleiotropic molecule that exerts several functions on brain and peripheral tissues via different receptors. The gene for the 5-HT2A receptor shows some variations, including a T102C polymorphism, that have been associated with increased risk of neuropsychiatric and vascular disorders. However, the potential impact of 5-HT2A imbalance caused by genetic variations on the human lifespan has not yet been established. We performed a prospective study involving an Amazon riparian elderly free-living population in Maués City, Brazil, with a 5-year follow-up. Out of a cohort of 637 subjects selected in July, 2009, we genotyped 471 individuals, including 209 males (44.4%) and 262 females (55.6%), all averaging 72.3 ± 7.8 years of age (ranging from 60 to 100 years). The T102C-SNP genotypic frequencies were 14.0% TT, 28.0% CC, and 58.0% CT. From 80 elderly individuals who died during the period investigated, we observed significantly (P = .005) higher numbers of TT carriers (27.3%) and CC carriers (21.2%), compared to heterozygous CT carriers (12.5%). Cox-regression analysis showed that association between the T102C-SNP and elderly survival was independent of age, sex, and other health variables. Our findings strongly suggest that imbalance in 5-HT2A may cause significant disturbances that lead to an increased susceptibility to death for individuals who are over 60 years of age. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  5. High Framingham risk score decreases quality of life in adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Yosaputra

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Cardiovascular disease (CVD risk factors, such as diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, smoking, and obesity tend to occur together in the general population. Increasing prevalence of multiple CVD risk factors has been related to increased risk of death from coronary heart disease and stroke. Studies have suggested that people with several risk factors of CVD may have impaired health-related quality of life. The objective of this study was to assess the association of CVD risk factors with quality of life (QOL among adults aged 40 to 65 years. A cross-sectional study was conducted involving 220 subjects 40 - 65 years of age at a health center. The CVD risk factors were assessed using the Framingham risk score that is the standard instrument for assessment of the risk of a first cardiac event. The risk factors assessed were age, smoking, blood pressure, total cholesterol and high density lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations. QOL was assessed by means of the WHOQOL-BREF instrument that had been prevalidated. The results of the study showed that 28.2% of subjects were smokers, 56.4% had stage 1 hypertension, 42.8% high total cholesterol and 13.6% low HDL cholesterol. The high risk group amounted to 45.5% and 42.3% constitued an intermediate risk group. High CVD risk scores were significantly associated with a low QOL for all domains (physical, psychological, social and environment (p=0.000. Preventing or reducing the multiple CVD risk factors to improve QOL is necessary among adults.

  6. Framingham risk score and alternatives for prediction of coronary heart disease in older adults.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolas Rodondi

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Guidelines for the prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD recommend use of Framingham-based risk scores that were developed in white middle-aged populations. It remains unclear whether and how CHD risk prediction might be improved among older adults. We aimed to compare the prognostic performance of the Framingham risk score (FRS, directly and after recalibration, with refit functions derived from the present cohort, as well as to assess the utility of adding other routinely available risk parameters to FRS. METHODS: Among 2193 black and white older adults (mean age, 73.5 years without pre-existing cardiovascular disease from the Health ABC cohort, we examined adjudicated CHD events, defined as incident myocardial infarction, CHD death, and hospitalization for angina or coronary revascularization. RESULTS: During 8-year follow-up, 351 participants experienced CHD events. The FRS poorly discriminated between persons who experienced CHD events vs. not (C-index: 0.577 in women; 0.583 in men and underestimated absolute risk prediction by 51% in women and 8% in men. Recalibration of the FRS improved absolute risk prediction, particulary for women. For both genders, refitting these functions substantially improved absolute risk prediction, with similar discrimination to the FRS. Results did not differ between whites and blacks. The addition of lifestyle variables, waist circumference and creatinine did not improve risk prediction beyond risk factors of the FRS. CONCLUSIONS: The FRS underestimates CHD risk in older adults, particularly in women, although traditional risk factors remain the best predictors of CHD. Re-estimated risk functions using these factors improve accurate estimation of absolute risk.

  7. Assessment of cardiovascular risk in patients with rheumatoid arthritis using the SCORE risk index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Campos, Otávio Augusto Martins; Nazário, Nazaré Otília; de Magalhães Souza Fialho, Sônia Cristina; Fialho, Guilherme Loureiro; de Oliveira, Fernando José Savóia; de Castro, Gláucio Ricardo Werner; Pereira, Ivânio Alves

    2016-01-01

    Rheumatoid arthritis is an autoimmune disease that causes systemic involvement and is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease. To analyze the prediction index of 10-year risk of a fatal cardiovascular disease event in female RA patients versus controls. Case-control study with analysis of 100 female patients matched for age and gender versus 100 patients in the control group. For the prediction of 10-year risk of a fatal cardiovascular disease event, the SCORE and modified SCORE (mSCORE) risk indexes were used, as suggested by EULAR, in the subgroup with two or more of the following: duration of disease ≥10 years, RF and/or anti-CCP positivity, and extra-articular manifestations. The prevalence of analyzed comorbidities was similar in RA patients compared with the control group (p>0.05). The means of the SCORE risk index in RA patients and in the control group were 1.99 (SD: 1.89) and 1.56 (SD: 1.87) (p=0.06), respectively. The means of mSCORE index in RA patients and in the control group were 2.84 (SD=2.86) and 1.56 (SD=1.87) (p=0.001), respectively. By using the SCORE risk index, 11% of RA patients were classified as of high risk, and with the use of mSCORE risk index, 36% were at high risk (p<0.001). The SCORE risk index is similar in both groups, but with the application of the mSCORE index, we recognized that RA patients have a higher 10-year risk of a fatal cardiovascular disease event, and this reinforces the importance of factors inherent to the disease not measured in the SCORE risk index, but considered in mSCORE risk index. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

  8. Defining sarcopenia in terms of risk of physical limitations: a 5-year follow-up study of 3,153 chinese men and women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo, Jean; Leung, Jason; Sham, Aprille; Kwok, Timothy

    2009-12-01

    To examine the definition of sarcopenia in Chinese subjects by relating the value of appendicular skeletal muscle mass (ASM) divided by height squared to physical functional outcomes after 4 years. Four-year prospective study. A Chinese community in Hong Kong SAR China. Three thousand one hundred fifty-three community-living men and women aged 65 and older. Information collected by questionnaire included demographics, health limitation on activities of daily living (ADLs), self-care, physical activity level, dietary intake, and psychosocial functioning. Measurements included height, weight, grip strength, step length in a 6-minute walk, and body composition. Four-year outcomes for those with ASM in kg per height in meters squared (ASM/ht(2)) less than 2 standard deviations (SDs) and 2 SDs or more below the young adult mean value were compared using analysis of variance and logistic regression, adjusting for potential confounding factors such as age, fat mass, presence or absence of malnutrition, dietary protein and vitamin D intake, comorbidity, and cognitive impairment. Participants with ASM/ht(2) 2 SDs or more below the young adult mean had lower grip strength and greater limitation in climbing stairs and general ADLs after adjusting for confounding factors. A U-shaped relationship was observed between physical limitation and ASM/ht(2), with increasing physical limitation below or above a range of 7.25 to 6.75 kg/m(2) in men and 6.00 to 6.25 kg/m(2) in women. Values of 5.25 to 6.74 kg/m(2) in women were associated with approximately 30% less risk of functional limitation after 5 years. No clear cutoff was found in men. Sarcopenia may be defined in terms of a range of values for ASM/ht(2) associated with the lowest risk of future physical limitations. The importance of establishing a quantitative value for the definition of sarcopenia may facilitate future interventional studies using pharmacological or nonpharmacological strategies.

  9. A new scoring system to stratify risk in unstable angina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salzberg Simón

    2003-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We performed this study to develop a new scoring system to stratify different levels of risk in patients admitted to hospital with a diagnosis of unstable angina (UA, which is a complex syndrome that encompasses different outcomes. Many prognostic variables have been described but few efforts have been made to group them in order to enhance their individual predictive power. Methods In a first phase, 473 patients were prospectively analyzed to determine which factors were significantly associated with the in-hospital occurrence of refractory ischemia, acute myocardial infarction (AMI or death. A risk score ranging from 0 to 10 points was developed using a multivariate analysis. In a second phase, such score was validated in a new sample of 242 patients and it was finally applied to the entire population (n = 715. Results ST-segment deviation on the electrocardiogram, age ≥ 70 years, previous bypass surgery and troponin T ≥ 0.1 ng/mL were found as independent prognostic variables. A clear distinction was shown among categories of low, intermediate and high risk, defined according to the risk score. The incidence of the triple end-point was 6 %, 19.2 % and 44.7 % respectively, and the figures for AMI or death were 2 %, 11.4 % and 27.6 % respectively (p Conclusions This new scoring system is simple and easy to achieve. It allows a very good stratification of risk in patients having a clinical diagnosis of UA. They may be divided in three categories, which could be of help in the decision-making process.

  10. The fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX® score in subclinical hyperthyroidism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Polovina Snežana

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aim. The Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX® score is the 10-year estimated risk calculation tool for bone fracture that includes clinical data and hip bone mineral density measured by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to elucidate the ability of the FRAX® score in discriminating between bone fracture positive and negative pre- and post-menopausal women with subclinical hyperthyroidism. Methods. The bone mineral density (by DXA, thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH level, free thyroxine (fT4 level, thyroid peroxidase antibodies (TPOAb titre, osteocalcin and beta-cross-laps were measured in 27 pre- and post-menopausal women with newly discovered subclinical hyperthyroidism [age 58.85 ± 7.83 years, body mass index (BMI 27.89 ± 3.46 kg/m2, menopause onset in 46.88 ± 10.21 years] and 51 matched euthyroid controls (age 59.69 ± 5.72 years, BMI 27.68 ± 4.66 kg/m2, menopause onset in 48.53 ± 4.58 years. The etiology of subclinical hyperthyroisims was autoimmune thyroid disease or toxic goiter. FRAX® score calculation was performed in both groups. Results. In the group with subclinical hyperthyroidism the main FRAX® score was significantly higher than in the controls (6.50 ± 1.58 vs 4.35 ± 1.56 respectively; p = 0.015. The FRAX® score for hip was also higher in the evaluated group than in the controls (1.33 ± 3.92 vs 0.50 ± 0.46 respectively; p = 0.022. There was no correlations between low TSH and fracture risk (p > 0.05. The ability of the FRAX® score in discriminating between bone fracture positive and negative pre- and postmenopausal female subjects (p < 0.001 is presented by the area under the curve (AUC plotted via ROC analysis. The determined FRAX score cut-off value by this analysis was 6%, with estimated sensitivity and specificity of 95% and 75.9%, respectively. Conclusion. Pre- and postmenopausal women with subclinical hyperthyroidism have higher FRAX® scores and thus

  11. Risk assessment and risk scores in the management of aortic aneurysms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Von Meijenfeldt, Gerdine C I; Van Der Laan, Maarten J; Zeebregts, Clark J; Balm, Ron; Verhagen, Hence J M

    2016-04-01

    The decision whether to operate a patient or not can be challenging for a clinician for both ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) as well as elective AAAs. Prior to surgical intervention it would be preferable that the clinician exactly knows which clinical variables lower or increase the chances of morbidity and mortality postintervention. To help in the preoperative counselling and shared decision making several clinical variables can be identified as risk factors and with these, risk models can be developed. An ideal risk score for aneurysm repair includes routinely obtained physiological and anatomical variables, has excellent discrimination and calibration, and is validated in different geographical areas. For elective AAA repair, several risk scores are available, for ruptured AAA treatment, these scores are far less well developed. In this manuscript, we describe the designs and results of published risk scores for elective and open repair. Also, suggestions for uniformly reporting of risk factors and their statistical analyses are described. Furthermore, the preliminary results of a new risk model for ruptured aortic aneurysm will be discussed. This score identifies age, hemoglobin, cardiopulmonary resuscitation and preoperative systolic blood pressure as risk factors after multivariate regression analysis. This new risk score can help to identify patients that would not benefit from repair, but it can also potentially identify patients who would benefit and therefore lower turndown rates. The challenge for further research is to expand on validation of already existing promising risk scores in order to come to a risk model with optimal discrimination and calibration.

  12. Framingham risk score with cardiovascular events in chronic kidney disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szu-Chia Chen

    Full Text Available The Framingham Risk Score (FRS was developed to predict coronary heart disease in various populations, and it tended to under-estimate the risk in chronic kidney disease (CKD patients. Our objectives were to determine whether FRS was associated with cardiovascular events, and to evaluate the role of new risk markers and echocardiographic parameters when they were added to a FRS model. This study enrolled 439 CKD patients. The FRS is used to identify individuals categorically as "low" (4.7 cm, left ventricular hypertrophy or left ventricular ejection fraction<50% to the FRS model significantly improves the predictive values for cardiovascular events. In CKD patients, "high" risk categorized by FRS predicts cardiovascular events. Novel biomarkers and echocardiographic parameters provide additional predictive values for cardiovascular events. Future study is needed to assess whether risk assessment enhanced by using these biomarkers and echocardiographic parameters might contribute to more effective prediction and better care for patients.

  13. Relationship between framingham risk score and coronary artery calcium score in asymptomatic Korean individuals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heo, So Young; Park, Noh Hyuck; Park, Chan Sub; Seong, Su Ok [Dept. of Radiology, Myongji Hospital, Seonam University College of Medicine, Goyang (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-02-15

    We explored the association between Framingham risk score (FRS) and coronary artery calcium score (CACS) in asymptomatic Korean individuals. We retrospectively analyzed 2216 participants who underwent routine health screening and CACS using the 64-slice multidetector computed tomography between January 2010 and June 2014. Relationship between CACS and FRS, and factors associated with discrepancy between CACS and FRS were analyzed. CACS and FRS were positively correlated (p < 0.0001). However, in 3.7% of participants with low coronary event risk and high CACS, age, male gender, smoker, hypertension, total cholesterol, diabetes mellitus, and body mass index (BMI; ≥ 35) were associated with the discrepancy. In the diagnostic prediction model for discrepancy, the receiver operating characteristic curve including factors associated with FRS, diastolic blood pressure (≥ 75 mm Hg), diabetes mellitus, and BMI (≥ 35) showed that the area under the curve was 0.854 (95% confidence interval, 0.819–0.890), indicating good sensitivity. Diabetes mellitus or obesity (BMI ≥ 35) compensate for the weakness of FRS and may be potential indicators for application of CACS in asymptomatic Koreans with low coronary event risk.

  14. The relationship between Elder Risk Assessment (ERA scores and cardiac revascularization: a cohort study in Olmsted County, Minnesota, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sharma S

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Saurabh Sharma,1 Shruti Datta,1 Shahyar Gharacholou,1,2 Shahzad K Siddique,3 Stephen S Cha,4 Paul Y Takahashi1,5,6 1Department of Internal Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA; 2Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA; 3Shifa International Hospital, Islamabad, Pakistan; 4Department of Health Sciences Research, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA; 5Division of Primary Care Internal Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA; 6Kogod Center of Aging, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA Purpose: The aging population is predisposed to cardiovascular disease. Our goal was to determine the relationship between a higher Elder Risk Assessment (ERA score and coronary artery bypass graft (CABG or percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI, in adults over 60 years. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study in a primary care internal medicine practice. Patients included community-dwelling individuals aged 60 years or older on January 1, 2005. The primary outcome was a combined outcome of CABG and PCI in 2 years. The secondary outcome was mortality 5 years after CABG or PCI. The primary predictor variable was the score on the ERA Index, an instrument that predicts emergency room visits and hospitalization. The outcomes were obtained using administrative data from electronic medical records. The analysis included logistic regression, with odds ratios for the primary outcome and time-to-event analysis for mortality. Results: The records of 12,650 patients were studied. A total of 902 patients (7.1% had either CABG or PCI, with an average age of 74.5 years (±8.3 years. There were 205 patients (23% who experienced CABG or PCI in the highest-score group (top 10% compared with 29 patients (3% in the lowest score group, for an odds ratio of 15.4; 95% confidence interval, 10.1–23.5. There was a greater association of revascularization events by increasing score group. We noted increased mortality by increasing ERA score, in patients

  15. A risk scoring system for prediction of haemorrhagic stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zodpey, S P; Tiwari, R R

    2005-01-01

    The present pair-matched case control study was carried out at Government Medical College Hospital, Nagpur, India, a tertiary care hospital with the objective to devise and validate a risk scoring system for prediction of hemorrhagic stroke. The study consisted of 166 hospitalized CT scan proved cases of hemorrhagic stroke (ICD 9, 431-432), and a age and sex matched control per case. The controls were selected from patients who attended the study hospital for conditions other than stroke. On conditional multiple logistic regression five risk factors- hypertension (OR = 1.9. 95% Cl = 1.5-2.5). raised scrum total cholesterol (OR = 2.3, 95% Cl = 1.1-4.9). use of anticoagulants and antiplatelet agents (OR = 3.4, 95% Cl =1.1-10.4). past history of transient ischaemic attack (OR = 8.4, 95% Cl = 2.1- 33.6) and alcohol intake (OR = 2.1, 95% Cl = 1.3-3.6) were significant. These factors were ascribed statistical weights (based on regression coefficients) of 6, 8, 12, 21 and 8 respectively. The nonsignificant factors (diabetes mellitus, physical inactivity, obesity, smoking, type A personality, history of claudication, family history of stroke, history of cardiac diseases and oral contraceptive use in females) were not included in the development of scoring system. ROC curve suggested a total score of 21 to be the best cut-off for predicting haemorrhag stroke. At this cut-off the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictivity and Cohen's kappa were 0.74, 0.74, 0.74 and 0.48 respectively. The overall predictive accuracy of this additive risk scoring system (area under ROC curve by Wilcoxon statistic) was 0.79 (95% Cl = 0.73-0.84). Thus to conclude, if substantiated by further validation, this scorincy system can be used to predict haemorrhagic stroke, thereby helping to devise effective risk factor intervention strategy.

  16. Healthy lifestyle and normal waist circumference are associated with a lower 5-year risk of type 2 diabetes in middle-aged and elderly individuals: Results from the healthy aging longitudinal study in Taiwan (HALST).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chu-Chih; Liu, Kiang; Hsu, Chih-Chen; Chang, Hsing-Yi; Chung, Hsiao-Chun; Liu, Jih-Shin; Liu, Yo-Hann; Tsai, Tsung-Lung; Liaw, Wen-Jin; Lin, I-Ching; Wu, Hsi-Wen; Juan, Chung-Chou; Chiu, Hou-Chang; Lee, Marion M; Hsiung, Chao A

    2017-02-01

    Type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) is known to be closely associated with lifestyle and obesity and has a prevalence that increases with age. This study aimed to assess the short-term composite effect of diet, physical activity, psychosocial health, and waist circumference (WC) on the incidence of DM in the elderly and to provide a lifestyle-based predictive index.We used baseline measurements (2009-2013) of 5349 community-dwelling participants (aged 55 years and older, 52% female) of the Healthy Aging Longitudinal Study in Taiwan (HALST) for fasting plasma glucose, HbA1C, serum cholesterol, triglycerides, blood pressures, WC, and outcomes of home-visit questionnaire. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to identify participants with a healthy lifestyle (HLF: higher diet, physical activity, and psychosocial scores) and a lower WC, with cutoffs determined by the receiver-operating characteristics. A Cox regression model was applied to 3424 participants without DM at baseline by linking to their National Health Insurance records (median follow-up of 3.1 years).In total, 247 new DM cases (7.2%) were identified. The HLF and lower WC group had a relative risk (RR) of DM of 0.54 (95% CI 0.35-0.82) compared to the non-HLF and higher WC group. When stratified by the presence of impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) or metabolic syndrome (MS), only participants with IGT/MS showed significant risks (RR 0.55; 95% CI 0.33-0.92). However, except for WC, the individual lifestyle factors were nonsignificant in the overall model without PCA.A composite protective effect of HLF and normal WC on DM within 5 years was observed, especially in those with IGT or MS. Psychosocial health constituted an important lifestyle factor in the elderly. The cutoffs identified could be used as a lifestyle-based risk index for DM. Maintaining an HLF to prevent DM is especially important for the elderly.

  17. Posttraumatic Stress Disorder among Danish Soldiers 2.5 Years after Military Deployment in Afghanistan: The Role of Personality Traits as Predisposing Risk Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janne Hellerup Nielsen

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the development of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD implicates research regarding factors besides the preceding traumatic event. This study investigated the influence of predisposing personality traits on development of PTSD in a group of Danish Soldiers deployed to Afghanistan (N = 445. Using a prospective design data was collected using questionnaires including the NEO Five Factor Inventory and the Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Checklist. The results showed a PTSD-prevalence of 9.2% in the total sample 2.5 years after homecoming. Using Kruskal-Wallis, Mann-Whitney U, and Spearman¡'s rho significant relationships were identified between pre-existing personality traits of neuroticism and agreeableness with development of PTSD symptoms 2.5 years after homecoming, however, a number of additional cofounders were identified.

  18. Scope Complexity Options Risks Excursions (SCORE) Factor Mathematical Description.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gearhart, Jared Lee [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Samberson, Jonell Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Shettigar, Subhasini [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jungels, John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Welch, Kimberly M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Dean A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-03-01

    The purpose of the Scope, Complexity, Options, Risks, Excursions (SCORE) model is to estimate the relative complexity of design variants of future warhead options, resulting in scores. SCORE factors extend this capability by providing estimates of complexity relative to a base system (i.e., all design options are normalized to one weapon system). First, a clearly defined set of scope elements for a warhead option is established. The complexity of each scope element is estimated by Subject Matter Experts (SMEs), including a level of uncertainty, relative to a specific reference system. When determining factors, complexity estimates for a scope element can be directly tied to the base system or chained together via comparable scope elements in a string of reference systems that ends with the base system. The SCORE analysis process is a growing multi-organizational Nuclear Security Enterprise (NSE) effort, under the management of the NA-12 led Enterprise Modeling and Analysis Consortium (EMAC). Historically, it has provided the data elicitation, integration, and computation needed to support the out-year Life Extension Program (LEP) cost estimates included in the Stockpile Stewardship Management Plan (SSMP).

  19. Comparison of Calipers for Matching on the Disease Risk Score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connolly, John G; Gagne, Joshua J

    2016-05-15

    Previous studies have compared calipers for propensity score (PS) matching, but none have considered calipers for matching on the disease risk score (DRS). We used Medicare claims data to perform 3 cohort studies of medication initiators: a study of raloxifene versus alendronate in 1-year nonvertebral fracture risk, a study of cyclooxygenase 2 inhibitors versus nonselective nonsteroidal antiinflammatory medications in 6-month gastrointestinal bleeding, and a study of simvastatin + ezetimibe versus simvastatin alone in 6-month cardiovascular outcomes. The study periods for each cohort were 1998 through 2005, 1999 through 2002, and 2004 through 2005, respectively. In each cohort, we calculated 1) a DRS, 2) a prognostic PS which included the DRS as the independent variable in a PS model, and 3) the PS for each patient. We then nearest-neighbor matched on each score in a variable ratio and a fixed ratio within 8 calipers based on the standard deviation of the logit and the natural score scale. When variable ratio matching on the DRS, a caliper of 0.05 on the natural scale performed poorly when the outcome was rare. The prognostic PS did not appear to offer any consistent practical benefits over matching on the DRS directly. In general, logit-based calipers or calipers smaller than 0.05 on the natural scale performed well when DRS matching in all examples. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  20. Modeling Linkage Disequilibrium Increases Accuracy of Polygenic Risk Scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilhjálmsson, Bjarni J; Yang, Jian; Finucane, Hilary K; Gusev, Alexander; Lindström, Sara; Ripke, Stephan; Genovese, Giulio; Loh, Po-Ru; Bhatia, Gaurav; Do, Ron; Hayeck, Tristan; Won, Hong-Hee; Kathiresan, Sekar; Pato, Michele; Pato, Carlos; Tamimi, Rulla; Stahl, Eli; Zaitlen, Noah; Pasaniuc, Bogdan; Belbin, Gillian; Kenny, Eimear E; Schierup, Mikkel H; De Jager, Philip; Patsopoulos, Nikolaos A; McCarroll, Steve; Daly, Mark; Purcell, Shaun; Chasman, Daniel; Neale, Benjamin; Goddard, Michael; Visscher, Peter M; Kraft, Peter; Patterson, Nick; Price, Alkes L

    2015-10-01

    Polygenic risk scores have shown great promise in predicting complex disease risk and will become more accurate as training sample sizes increase. The standard approach for calculating risk scores involves linkage disequilibrium (LD)-based marker pruning and applying a p value threshold to association statistics, but this discards information and can reduce predictive accuracy. We introduce LDpred, a method that infers the posterior mean effect size of each marker by using a prior on effect sizes and LD information from an external reference panel. Theory and simulations show that LDpred outperforms the approach of pruning followed by thresholding, particularly at large sample sizes. Accordingly, predicted R(2) increased from 20.1% to 25.3% in a large schizophrenia dataset and from 9.8% to 12.0% in a large multiple sclerosis dataset. A similar relative improvement in accuracy was observed for three additional large disease datasets and for non-European schizophrenia samples. The advantage of LDpred over existing methods will grow as sample sizes increase. Copyright © 2015 The American Society of Human Genetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Integrating genetics and social science: genetic risk scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belsky, Daniel W; Israel, Salomon

    2014-01-01

    The sequencing of the human genome and the advent of low-cost genome-wide assays that generate millions of observations of individual genomes in a matter of hours constitute a disruptive innovation for social science. Many public use social science datasets have or will soon add genome-wide genetic data. With these new data come technical challenges, but also new possibilities. Among these, the lowest-hanging fruit and the most potentially disruptive to existing research programs is the ability to measure previously invisible contours of health and disease risk within populations. In this article, we outline why now is the time for social scientists to bring genetics into their research programs. We discuss how to select genetic variants to study. We explain how the polygenic architecture of complex traits and the low penetrance of individual genetic loci pose challenges to research integrating genetics and social science. We introduce genetic risk scores as a method of addressing these challenges and provide guidance on how genetic risk scores can be constructed. We conclude by outlining research questions that are ripe for social science inquiry.

  2. Modeling Linkage Disequilibrium Increases Accuracy of Polygenic Risk Scores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilhjálmsson, Bjarni J.; Yang, Jian; Finucane, Hilary K.; Gusev, Alexander; Lindström, Sara; Ripke, Stephan; Genovese, Giulio; Loh, Po-Ru; Bhatia, Gaurav; Do, Ron; Hayeck, Tristan; Won, Hong-Hee; Ripke, Stephan; Neale, Benjamin M.; Corvin, Aiden; Walters, James T.R.; Farh, Kai-How; Holmans, Peter A.; Lee, Phil; Bulik-Sullivan, Brendan; Collier, David A.; Huang, Hailiang; Pers, Tune H.; Agartz, Ingrid; Agerbo, Esben; Albus, Margot; Alexander, Madeline; Amin, Farooq; Bacanu, Silviu A.; Begemann, Martin; Belliveau, Richard A.; Bene, Judit; Bergen, Sarah E.; Bevilacqua, Elizabeth; Bigdeli, Tim B.; Black, Donald W.; Bruggeman, Richard; Buccola, Nancy G.; Buckner, Randy L.; Byerley, William; Cahn, Wiepke; Cai, Guiqing; Campion, Dominique; Cantor, Rita M.; Carr, Vaughan J.; Carrera, Noa; Catts, Stanley V.; Chambert, Kimberly D.; Chan, Raymond C.K.; Chen, Ronald Y.L.; Chen, Eric Y.H.; Cheng, Wei; Cheung, Eric F.C.; Chong, Siow Ann; Cloninger, C. Robert; Cohen, David; Cohen, Nadine; Cormican, Paul; Craddock, Nick; Crowley, James J.; Curtis, David; Davidson, Michael; Davis, Kenneth L.; Degenhardt, Franziska; Del Favero, Jurgen; DeLisi, Lynn E.; Demontis, Ditte; Dikeos, Dimitris; Dinan, Timothy; Djurovic, Srdjan; Donohoe, Gary; Drapeau, Elodie; Duan, Jubao; Dudbridge, Frank; Durmishi, Naser; Eichhammer, Peter; Eriksson, Johan; Escott-Price, Valentina; Essioux, Laurent; Fanous, Ayman H.; Farrell, Martilias S.; Frank, Josef; Franke, Lude; Freedman, Robert; Freimer, Nelson B.; Friedl, Marion; Friedman, Joseph I.; Fromer, Menachem; Genovese, Giulio; Georgieva, Lyudmila; Gershon, Elliot S.; Giegling, Ina; Giusti-Rodrguez, Paola; Godard, Stephanie; Goldstein, Jacqueline I.; Golimbet, Vera; Gopal, Srihari; Gratten, Jacob; Grove, Jakob; de Haan, Lieuwe; Hammer, Christian; Hamshere, Marian L.; Hansen, Mark; Hansen, Thomas; Haroutunian, Vahram; Hartmann, Annette M.; Henskens, Frans A.; Herms, Stefan; Hirschhorn, Joel N.; Hoffmann, Per; Hofman, Andrea; Hollegaard, Mads V.; Hougaard, David M.; Ikeda, Masashi; Joa, Inge; Julia, Antonio; Kahn, Rene S.; Kalaydjieva, Luba; Karachanak-Yankova, Sena; Karjalainen, Juha; Kavanagh, David; Keller, Matthew C.; Kelly, Brian J.; Kennedy, James L.; Khrunin, Andrey; Kim, Yunjung; Klovins, Janis; Knowles, James A.; Konte, Bettina; Kucinskas, Vaidutis; Kucinskiene, Zita Ausrele; Kuzelova-Ptackova, Hana; Kahler, Anna K.; Laurent, Claudine; Keong, Jimmy Lee Chee; Lee, S. Hong; Legge, Sophie E.; Lerer, Bernard; Li, Miaoxin; Li, Tao; Liang, Kung-Yee; Lieberman, Jeffrey; Limborska, Svetlana; Loughland, Carmel M.; Lubinski, Jan; Lnnqvist, Jouko; Macek, Milan; Magnusson, Patrik K.E.; Maher, Brion S.; Maier, Wolfgang; Mallet, Jacques; Marsal, Sara; Mattheisen, Manuel; Mattingsdal, Morten; McCarley, Robert W.; McDonald, Colm; McIntosh, Andrew M.; Meier, Sandra; Meijer, Carin J.; Melegh, Bela; Melle, Ingrid; Mesholam-Gately, Raquelle I.; Metspalu, Andres; Michie, Patricia T.; Milani, Lili; Milanova, Vihra; Mokrab, Younes; Morris, Derek W.; Mors, Ole; Mortensen, Preben B.; Murphy, Kieran C.; Murray, Robin M.; Myin-Germeys, Inez; Mller-Myhsok, Bertram; Nelis, Mari; Nenadic, Igor; Nertney, Deborah A.; Nestadt, Gerald; Nicodemus, Kristin K.; Nikitina-Zake, Liene; Nisenbaum, Laura; Nordin, Annelie; O’Callaghan, Eadbhard; O’Dushlaine, Colm; O’Neill, F. Anthony; Oh, Sang-Yun; Olincy, Ann; Olsen, Line; Van Os, Jim; Pantelis, Christos; Papadimitriou, George N.; Papiol, Sergi; Parkhomenko, Elena; Pato, Michele T.; Paunio, Tiina; Pejovic-Milovancevic, Milica; Perkins, Diana O.; Pietilinen, Olli; Pimm, Jonathan; Pocklington, Andrew J.; Powell, John; Price, Alkes; Pulver, Ann E.; Purcell, Shaun M.; Quested, Digby; Rasmussen, Henrik B.; Reichenberg, Abraham; Reimers, Mark A.; Richards, Alexander L.; Roffman, Joshua L.; Roussos, Panos; Ruderfer, Douglas M.; Salomaa, Veikko; Sanders, Alan R.; Schall, Ulrich; Schubert, Christian R.; Schulze, Thomas G.; Schwab, Sibylle G.; Scolnick, Edward M.; Scott, Rodney J.; Seidman, Larry J.; Shi, Jianxin; Sigurdsson, Engilbert; Silagadze, Teimuraz; Silverman, Jeremy M.; Sim, Kang; Slominsky, Petr; Smoller, Jordan W.; So, Hon-Cheong; Spencer, Chris C.A.; Stahl, Eli A.; Stefansson, Hreinn; Steinberg, Stacy; Stogmann, Elisabeth; Straub, Richard E.; Strengman, Eric; Strohmaier, Jana; Stroup, T. Scott; Subramaniam, Mythily; Suvisaari, Jaana; Svrakic, Dragan M.; Szatkiewicz, Jin P.; Sderman, Erik; Thirumalai, Srinivas; Toncheva, Draga; Tooney, Paul A.; Tosato, Sarah; Veijola, Juha; Waddington, John; Walsh, Dermot; Wang, Dai; Wang, Qiang; Webb, Bradley T.; Weiser, Mark; Wildenauer, Dieter B.; Williams, Nigel M.; Williams, Stephanie; Witt, Stephanie H.; Wolen, Aaron R.; Wong, Emily H.M.; Wormley, Brandon K.; Wu, Jing Qin; Xi, Hualin Simon; Zai, Clement C.; Zheng, Xuebin; Zimprich, Fritz; Wray, Naomi R.; Stefansson, Kari; Visscher, Peter M.; Adolfsson, Rolf; Andreassen, Ole A.; Blackwood, Douglas H.R.; Bramon, Elvira; Buxbaum, Joseph D.; Børglum, Anders D.; Cichon, Sven; Darvasi, Ariel; Domenici, Enrico; Ehrenreich, Hannelore; Esko, Tonu; Gejman, Pablo V.; Gill, Michael; Gurling, Hugh; Hultman, Christina M.; Iwata, Nakao; Jablensky, Assen V.; Jonsson, Erik G.; Kendler, Kenneth S.; Kirov, George; Knight, Jo; Lencz, Todd; Levinson, Douglas F.; Li, Qingqin S.; Liu, Jianjun; Malhotra, Anil K.; McCarroll, Steven A.; McQuillin, Andrew; Moran, Jennifer L.; Mortensen, Preben B.; Mowry, Bryan J.; Nthen, Markus M.; Ophoff, Roel A.; Owen, Michael J.; Palotie, Aarno; Pato, Carlos N.; Petryshen, Tracey L.; Posthuma, Danielle; Rietschel, Marcella; Riley, Brien P.; Rujescu, Dan; Sham, Pak C.; Sklar, Pamela; St. Clair, David; Weinberger, Daniel R.; Wendland, Jens R.; Werge, Thomas; Daly, Mark J.; Sullivan, Patrick F.; O’Donovan, Michael C.; Kraft, Peter; Hunter, David J.; Adank, Muriel; Ahsan, Habibul; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Baglietto, Laura; Berndt, Sonja; Blomquist, Carl; Canzian, Federico; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Chanock, Stephen J.; Crisponi, Laura; Czene, Kamila; Dahmen, Norbert; Silva, Isabel dos Santos; Easton, Douglas; Eliassen, A. Heather; Figueroa, Jonine; Fletcher, Olivia; Garcia-Closas, Montserrat; Gaudet, Mia M.; Gibson, Lorna; Haiman, Christopher A.; Hall, Per; Hazra, Aditi; Hein, Rebecca; Henderson, Brian E.; Hofman, Albert; Hopper, John L.; Irwanto, Astrid; Johansson, Mattias; Kaaks, Rudolf; Kibriya, Muhammad G.; Lichtner, Peter; Lindström, Sara; Liu, Jianjun; Lund, Eiliv; Makalic, Enes; Meindl, Alfons; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne; Müller-Myhsok, Bertram; Muranen, Taru A.; Nevanlinna, Heli; Peeters, Petra H.; Peto, Julian; Prentice, Ross L.; Rahman, Nazneen; Sánchez, María José; Schmidt, Daniel F.; Schmutzler, Rita K.; Southey, Melissa C.; Tamimi, Rulla; Travis, Ruth; Turnbull, Clare; Uitterlinden, Andre G.; van der Luijt, Rob B.; Waisfisz, Quinten; Wang, Zhaoming; Whittemore, Alice S.; Yang, Rose; Zheng, Wei; Kathiresan, Sekar; Pato, Michele; Pato, Carlos; Tamimi, Rulla; Stahl, Eli; Zaitlen, Noah; Pasaniuc, Bogdan; Belbin, Gillian; Kenny, Eimear E.; Schierup, Mikkel H.; De Jager, Philip; Patsopoulos, Nikolaos A.; McCarroll, Steve; Daly, Mark; Purcell, Shaun; Chasman, Daniel; Neale, Benjamin; Goddard, Michael; Visscher, Peter M.; Kraft, Peter; Patterson, Nick; Price, Alkes L.

    2015-01-01

    Polygenic risk scores have shown great promise in predicting complex disease risk and will become more accurate as training sample sizes increase. The standard approach for calculating risk scores involves linkage disequilibrium (LD)-based marker pruning and applying a p value threshold to association statistics, but this discards information and can reduce predictive accuracy. We introduce LDpred, a method that infers the posterior mean effect size of each marker by using a prior on effect sizes and LD information from an external reference panel. Theory and simulations show that LDpred outperforms the approach of pruning followed by thresholding, particularly at large sample sizes. Accordingly, predicted R2 increased from 20.1% to 25.3% in a large schizophrenia dataset and from 9.8% to 12.0% in a large multiple sclerosis dataset. A similar relative improvement in accuracy was observed for three additional large disease datasets and for non-European schizophrenia samples. The advantage of LDpred over existing methods will grow as sample sizes increase. PMID:26430803

  3. Preterm Birth: A Prominent Risk Factor for Low Apgar Scores

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Svenvik

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To determine predictive risk factors for Apgar scores < 7 at 5 minutes at two hospitals providing tertiary care and secondary care, respectively. Methods. A retrospective registry cohort study of 21126 births (2006–2010 using data from digital medical records. Risk factors were analyzed by logistic regression analyses. Results.  AS5min⁡<7 was multivariately associated with the following: preterm birth; gestational week 32 + 0–36 + 6, OR=3.9 (95% CI 2.9–5.3; week 28 + 0–31 + 6, OR=8 (5–12; week < 28 + 0, OR=15 (8–29; postterm birth, OR=2.0 (1.7–2.3; multiple pregnancy, OR=3.53 (1.79–6.96; previous cesarean section, OR=3.67 (2.31–5.81; BMI 25–29, OR=1.30 (1.09–1.55; BMI≥30  OR=1.70 (1.20–2.41; nonnormal CTG at admission, OR=1.98 (1.48–2.66. ≥1-para was associated with a decreased risk for AS5min⁡<7, OR=0.34 (0.25–0.47. In the univariate logistic regression analysis AS5min⁡<7 was associated with tertiary level care, OR=1.48 (1.17–1.87; however, in the multivariate analysis there was no significant difference. Conclusion. A number of partially preventable risk factors were identified, preterm birth being the most evident. Further, no significant difference between the two hospital levels regarding the risk for low Apgar scores was detected.

  4. Weighing of risk factors for penetrating keratoplasty graft failure: application of Risk Score System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdo Karim Tourkmani

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available AIM: To analyze the relationship between the score obtained in the Risk Score System (RSS proposed by Hicks et al with penetrating keratoplasty (PKP graft failure at 1y postoperatively and among each factor in the RSS with the risk of PKP graft failure using univariate and multivariate analysis. METHODS: The retrospective cohort study had 152 PKPs from 152 patients. Eighteen cases were excluded from our study due to primary failure (10 cases, incomplete medical notes (5 cases and follow-up less than 1y (3 cases. We included 134 PKPs from 134 patients stratified by preoperative risk score. Spearman coefficient was calculated for the relationship between the score obtained and risk of failure at 1y. Univariate and multivariate analysis were calculated for the impact of every single risk factor included in the RSS over graft failure at 1y. RESULTS: Spearman coefficient showed statistically significant correlation between the score in the RSS and graft failure (P0.05 between diagnosis and lens status with graft failure. The relationship between the other risk factors studied and graft failure was significant (P<0.05, although the results for previous grafts and graft failure was unreliable. None of our patients had previous blood transfusion, thus, it had no impact. CONCLUSION: After the application of multivariate analysis techniques, some risk factors do not show the expected impact over graft failure at 1y.

  5. The ERICE-score: the new native cardiovascular score for the low-risk and aged Mediterranean population of Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabriel, Rafael; Brotons, Carlos; Tormo, M José; Segura, Antonio; Rigo, Fernando; Elosua, Roberto; Carbayo, Julio A; Gavrila, Diana; Moral, Irene; Tuomilehto, Jaakko; Muñiz, Javier

    2015-03-01

    In Spain, data based on large population-based cohorts adequate to provide an accurate prediction of cardiovascular risk have been scarce. Thus, calibration of the EuroSCORE and Framingham scores has been proposed and done for our population. The aim was to develop a native risk prediction score to accurately estimate the individual cardiovascular risk in the Spanish population. Seven Spanish population-based cohorts including middle-aged and elderly participants were assembled. There were 11800 people (6387 women) representing 107915 person-years of follow-up. A total of 1214 cardiovascular events were identified, of which 633 were fatal. Cox regression analyses were conducted to examine the contributions of the different variables to the 10-year total cardiovascular risk. Age was the strongest cardiovascular risk factor. High systolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus and smoking were strong predictive factors. The contribution of serum total cholesterol was small. Antihypertensive treatment also had a significant impact on cardiovascular risk, greater in men than in women. The model showed a good discriminative power (C-statistic=0.789 in men and C=0.816 in women). Ten-year risk estimations are displayed graphically in risk charts separately for men and women. The ERICE is a new native cardiovascular risk score for the Spanish population derived from the background and contemporaneous risk of several Spanish cohorts. The ERICE score offers the direct and reliable estimation of total cardiovascular risk, taking in consideration the effect of diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular risk factor management. The ERICE score is a practical and useful tool for clinicians to estimate the total individual cardiovascular risk in Spain. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  6. Multi-locus genetic risk score predicts risk for Crohn's disease in Slovenian population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zupancic, Katarina; Skok, Kristijan; Repnik, Katja; Weersma, Rinse K.; Potocnik, Uros; Skok, Pavel

    2016-01-01

    AIM: To develop a risk model for Crohn's disease (CD) based on homogeneous population. METHODS: In our study were included 160 CD patients and 209 healthy individuals from Slovenia. The association study was performed for 112 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). We generated genetic risk scores

  7. Multi-locus genetic risk score predicts risk for Crohn's disease in Slovenian population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zupančič, Katarina; Skok, Kristijan; Repnik, Katja; Weersma, Rinse K; Potočnik, Uroš; Skok, Pavel

    2016-01-01

    AIM: To develop a risk model for Crohn's disease (CD) based on homogeneous population. METHODS: In our study were included 160 CD patients and 209 healthy individuals from Slovenia. The association study was performed for 112 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). We generated genetic risk scores (

  8. Reciprocal influences between maternal parenting and child adjustment in a high-risk population: a 5-year cross-lagged analysis of bidirectional effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbot, Baptiste; Crossman, Elizabeth; Hunter, Scott R; Grigorenko, Elena L; Luthar, Suniya S

    2014-09-01

    This study examines longitudinally the bidirectional influences between maternal parenting (behaviors and parenting stress) and mothers' perceptions of their children's adjustment, in a multivariate approach. Data was gathered from 361 low-income mothers (many with psychiatric diagnoses) reporting on their parenting behavior, parenting stress, and their child's adjustment, in a 2-wave longitudinal study over 5 years. Measurement models were developed to derive 4 broad parenting constructs (involvement, control, rejection, and stress) and 3 child adjustment constructs (internalizing problems, externalizing problems, and social competence). After measurement invariance of these constructs was confirmed across relevant groups and over time, both measurement models were integrated in a single crossed-lagged regression analysis of latent constructs. Multiple reciprocal influences were observed between parenting and perceived child adjustment over time: Externalizing and internalizing problems in children were predicted by baseline maternal parenting behaviors, and child social competence was found to reduce parental stress and increase parental involvement and appropriate monitoring. These findings on the motherhood experience are discussed in light of recent research efforts to understand mother-child bidirectional influences and their potential for practical applications.

  9. SCORING ASSESSMENT AND FORECASTING MODELS BANKRUPTCY RISK OF COMPANIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SUSU Stefanita

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Bankruptcy risk made the subject of many research studies that aim at identifying the time of the bankruptcy, the factors that compete to achieve this state, the indicators that best express this orientation (the bankruptcy. The threats to enterprises require the managers knowledge of continually economic and financial situations, and vulnerable areas with development potential. Managers need to identify and properly manage the threats that would prevent achieving the targets. In terms of methods known in the literature of assessment and evaluation of bankruptcy risk they are static, functional, strategic, and scoring nonfinancial models. This article addresses Altman and Conan-Holder-known internationally as the model developed at national level by two teachers from prestigious universities in our country-the Robu-Mironiuc model. Those models are applied to data released by the profit and loss account and balance sheet Turism Covasna company over which bankruptcy risk analysis is performed. The results of the analysis are interpreted while trying to formulate solutions to the economic and financial viability of the entity.

  10. Performance of upper gastrointestinal bleeding risk assessment scores in variceal bleeding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ngu, Jing H.; Laursen, Stig Borbjerg; Chin, YK

    2017-01-01

    Performance of upper gastrointestinal bleeding risk assessment scores in variceal bleeding: a prospective international multicenter study.......Performance of upper gastrointestinal bleeding risk assessment scores in variceal bleeding: a prospective international multicenter study....

  11. Common clinical practice versus new PRIM score in predicting coronary heart disease risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frikke-Schmidt, Ruth; Tybjærg-Hansen, Anne; Schnohr, Peter;

    2010-01-01

    To compare the new Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM) Score and common clinical practice with the Framingham Point Score for classification of individuals with respect to coronary heart disease (CHD) risk.......To compare the new Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM) Score and common clinical practice with the Framingham Point Score for classification of individuals with respect to coronary heart disease (CHD) risk....

  12. Changes in lifestyle, biological risk factors and total homocysteine in relation to MTHFR C677T genotype: a 5-year follow-up study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Linneberg, A; Thuesen, Betina Heinsbæk; Jørgensen, Torben

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Total homocysteine (tHcy) has been associated with increased risk of several diseases in the general population. It is not clear whether these associations are causal. A less healthy lifestyle as well as a less favorable biological risk factor profile have been related...... to increased tHcy in cross-sectional studies. In addition, the methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) C677T gene variant is an important determinant of elevated tHcy. The main objective of the study was to examine the effect of changes in biological risk factors and lifestyle on tHcy in relation to MTHFR......, physical activity, smoking status, coffee, tea, total alcohol or wine consumption. An inverse relationship was observed between changes in tHcy and changes in the intake of beer in TT individuals but not in CC/CT individuals (P (interaction)=0.01). In addition, changes in tHcy were positively associated...

  13. Metabolic syndrome and Framingham risk score in obese young adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felix F. Widjaja

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: The increase number of the metabolic syndrome (MetS among young adults was mostly caused by obesity. MetS increases the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD which can be estimated by Framingham risk score (FRS. The study was aimed to know the prevalence of MetS and FRS in obese young adults and to associate them with the components of MetS. Methods: A total of 70 male and female students aged 18 to 25 years with BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2 in Faculty of Medicine Universitas Indonesia were selected consecutively. The blood samples used to test fasting blood glucose, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein, and triglyceride were examined in Department of Clinical Pathology, Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital after fasting for 14 to 16 hours. International Diabetes Federation (IDF definition was used to diagnose MetS. Univariate and bivariate analysis were done. Results: The prevalence of MetS based on IDF definition was 18.6% among obese young adults. The most associated MetS components was hypertriglyceridemia (OR 12.13; 95% CI 2.92-50.46; p = 0.001, followed with high blood pressure (OR 9.33; 95% CI 2.26-38.56; p = 0.001, low-HDL (OR 8.33; 95% CI 2.17-32.05; p = 0.003, and impaired fasting glucose (p = 0.03. Four subjects had FRS ≥ 1% and 66 subjects had risk < 1%. Increased FRS was not associated with MetS (p = 0.154. There was no component of MetS associated with increased FRS. Conclusion: Prevalence of MetS in obese young adults was similar with obese children and adolescents. Although no association of MetS and FRS was found, they are significant predictors for CHD which should not be used separately. (Med J Indones. 2013;22:100-6Keywords: Abdominal obesity, Framingham risk score, metabolic syndrome, young adults

  14. Risk factors for death among children less than 5 years old hospitalized with diarrhea in rural western Kenya, 2005-2007: a cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Reilly, Ciara E; Jaron, Peter; Ochieng, Benjamin; Nyaguara, Amek; Tate, Jacqueline E; Parsons, Michele B; Bopp, Cheryl A; Williams, Kara A; Vinjé, Jan; Blanton, Elizabeth; Wannemuehler, Kathleen A; Vulule, John; Laserson, Kayla F; Breiman, Robert F; Feikin, Daniel R; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; Mintz, Eric

    2012-01-01

    Diarrhea is a leading cause of childhood morbidity and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. Data on risk factors for mortality are limited. We conducted hospital-based surveillance to characterize the etiology of diarrhea and identify risk factors for death among children hospitalized with diarrhea in rural western Kenya. We enrolled all children diarrhea (≥3 loose stools in 24 hours) at two district hospitals in Nyanza Province, western Kenya. Clinical and demographic information was collected. Stool specimens were tested for bacterial and viral pathogens. Bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were carried out to identify risk factors for death. From May 23, 2005 to May 22, 2007, 1,146 children risk factors for death included being malnourished (aOR = 4·2; 95% CI 2·1-8·7); having oral thrush on physical exam (aOR = 2·3; 95% CI 1·4-3·8); having previously sought care at a hospital for the illness (aOR = 2·2; 95% CI 1·2-3·8); and being dehydrated as diagnosed at discharge/death (aOR = 2·5; 95% CI 1·5-4·1). A clinical diagnosis of malaria, and malaria parasites seen on blood smear, were not associated with increased risk of death. This study only captured in-hospital childhood deaths, and likely missed a substantial number of additional deaths that occurred at home. Nontyphoidal Salmonella and Shigella are associated with mortality among rural Kenyan children with diarrhea who access a hospital. Improved prevention and treatment of diarrheal disease is necessary. Enhanced surveillance and simplified laboratory diagnostics in Africa may assist clinicians in appropriately treating potentially fatal diarrheal illness.

  15. SCORE underestimates cardiovascular risk (CVR of HIV+ patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R Ramírez

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The new European Guidelines of Dislipidemia Management of the European Societies of Cardiology and Arteriosclerosis consider HIV+ as patients at high risk of developing cardiovascular events and deaths. The objective of the study was to evaluate cardiovascular events and deaths in a series of HIV+ patients. Observational, cross-sectional study, including a cohort of HIV+ and HIV− patients from 2008. CVR was calculated using the SCORE-CVR chart. Variation on lipid profile and incidence of cardiovascular events, cardiovascular death or death related to any cause were recorded. Data was analyzed using SPSS version 20.0 for MAC. 154 HIV+ and 155 HIV− patients were included. Mean age: 44.8±9.5 vs 55.2±14.3 y and 69.5% vs 49% males respectively (p<0.01. Mean time since HIV+ diagnosis was 11±6.2 y. Mean BMI and systolic blood pressure were lower in HIV+ (25.1±6.7 kg/m2 vs 28.7±5.1 kg/m2, (p<0.01 and 119.6±19.4 vs 124.7±14.7 mmHg, (p=0.044; respectively. A lower proportion of hypertense, diabetic and obese patients was observed in HIV+ (25.5% vs 6.5%; 20.6% vs 3.9% and 36.8% vs 12.3% but a larger proportion of smokers (68.8% vs 29.7% was observed (p<0.01 in all cases. Mean cholesterol and LDLc were lower in HIV+ (191.2±41.4 vs 218.5±44.6 mg/dl and 109.5±33.9 vs 134.6±37.7 mg/dl; p<0.01; respectively but with a lower mean HDLc and higher TG (50.3±19 mg/dl vs 55.2±14.9 mg/dl; p=0.013 and 156.7±85.7 vs 135.8±66.2 mg/dl; p=0.017; respectively. There was no significant difference in mean CVR-SCORE (3.5±3.6% vs 4.4±3.8%; p=0.091. With this SCORE, 5.2±5.3 and 6.7±5.8 cardiovascular events or deaths should be expected in HIV+ and HIV− respectively at 10 y. Four years later cholesterol, LDLc, HDLc, TG in HIV+ and HIV− patients did not vary compared with those obtained 4 y before. 5 events and 1 death were seen at 4 y follow-up in HIV+, and in HIV− patients. The incidence of events in HIV+ patients is similar to the expected according

  16. Comparison of three prenatal risk scores in a series of low-risk pregnancies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, R B; Acheson, L S; Zyzanski, S J

    1988-01-01

    Three prepartum obstetrical risk-scoring methods (Goodwin, Halliday, Hobel) were retrospectively applied to a consecutive series of 795 singleton pregnancies. The study population was low risk overall, with a perinatal mortality rate of 11 per 1000 and a primary cesarean section rate of 9.7%. The predictive ability of the scores was tested for individual outcomes as well as for a "combined measure" designed to group outcomes of clinical interest. Outcome variables examined included labor arrests, need for augmentation of labor, fetal heartrate abnormalities during labor, selection of or transfer to a more intensive level of care, indicated forceps delivery, cesarean section, resuscitation, Apgar scores, permanent injury, and perinatal deaths. Along with expected differences in sensitivity and specificity, there were differences among the three scores in performance as measured by positive and negative predictive value. Goodwin's system performed somewhat better overall. All three systems performed better in multiparous than in primiparous patients, but primiparas experienced more adverse outcomes.

  17. Risk Factors for Death in Bangladeshi Children Under 5 Years of Age Hospitalized for Diarrhea and Severe Respiratory Distress in an Urban Critical Care Ward.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alam, Tahmina; Ahmed, Tahmeed; Sarmin, Monira; Shahrin, Lubaba; Afroze, Farzana; Sharifuzzaman; Akhter, Shamima; Shahunja, K M; Shahid, Abu Sadat Mohammad Sayeem Bin; Bardhan, Pradip Kumar; Chisti, Mohammod Jobayer

    2017-01-01

    Children with diarrhea hospitalized for respiratory distress often have fatal outcome in resource-limited settings, although data are lacking on risk factors for death in such children. We sought to evaluate clinical predictors for death in such children. In this prospective cohort study, we enrolled under-5 children with diarrhea admitted with severe respiratory distress to the intensive care unit of Dhaka Hospital of International Centre for Diarhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, from September 2014 through September 2015. We compared clinical and laboratory characteristics between study children those who died (n = 29) and those who survived (n = 62). In logistic regression analysis, after adjusting for potential confounders, the independent predictors for death in children hospitalized for diarrhea and severe respiratory distress were severe sepsis and hypoglycemia (P diarrhea at risk of deaths in order to initiate prompt management for the better outcome, especially in resource-poor settings.

  18. Risk Factors for Death in Bangladeshi Children Under 5 Years of Age Hospitalized for Diarrhea and Severe Respiratory Distress in an Urban Critical Care Ward

    OpenAIRE

    Tahmina Alam MBBS; Tahmeed Ahmed MBBS, PhD; Monira Sarmin MBBS, MCPS; Lubaba Shahrin MBBS, FCPS; Farzana Afroze MBBS, FCPS; Sharifuzzaman MBBS; Shamima Akhter MBBS; K. M. Shahunja MBBS; Abu Sadat Mohammad Sayeem Bin Shahid MBBS; Pradip Kumar Bardhan MBBS, MD; Mohammod Jobayer Chisti MBBS, MMed, PhD

    2017-01-01

    Children with diarrhea hospitalized for respiratory distress often have fatal outcome in resource-limited settings, although data are lacking on risk factors for death in such children. We sought to evaluate clinical predictors for death in such children. In this prospective cohort study, we enrolled under-5 children with diarrhea admitted with severe respiratory distress to the intensive care unit of Dhaka Hospital of International Centre for Diarhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, from Sept...

  19. Risk stratification in non-ST elevation acute coronary syndromes: Risk scores, biomarkers and clinical judgment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Corcoran

    2015-09-01

    Clinical guidelines recommend an early invasive strategy in higher risk NSTE-ACS. The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE risk score is a validated risk stratification tool which has incremental prognostic value for risk stratification compared with clinical assessment or troponin testing alone. In emergency medicine, there has been a limited adoption of the GRACE score in some countries (e.g. United Kingdom, in part related to a delay in obtaining timely blood biochemistry results. Age makes an exponential contribution to the GRACE score, and on an individual patient basis, the risk of younger patients with a flow-limiting culprit coronary artery lesion may be underestimated. The future incorporation of novel cardiac biomarkers into this diagnostic pathway may allow for earlier treatment stratification. The cost-effectiveness of the new diagnostic pathways based on high-sensitivity troponin and copeptin must also be established. Finally, diagnostic tests and risk scores may optimize patient care but they cannot replace patient-focused good clinical judgment.

  20. Risk of hypertension in Yozgat Province, Central Anatolia: application of Framingham Hypertension Prediction Risk Score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kilic, M; Ede, H; Kilic, A I

    2016-07-10

    The aim of this cross-sectional study was to estimate the risk of hypertension in 1106 Caucasian individuals aged 20-69 years in Yozgat Province, using the Framingham Hypertension Risk Prediction Score (FHRPS). According to FHRPS, average risk of developing hypertension over 4 years was 6.2%. The participants were classified into low- (10%) risk groups. The percentage of participants that fell into these groups was 59.4%, 19.8% and 20.8% respectively. The proportion of participants in the high-risk group was similar to the 4-year incidence of hypertension (21.3%) in the Turkish population. Regression analysis showed that high salt consumption and low educational level significantly increased the risk of hypertension. Economic level, fat consumption, life satisfaction, physical activity, and fruit and vegetable consumption were not correlated with risk of hypertension. This study shows that FHRPS can also be used for predicting risk of hypertension in Central Anatolia.

  1. Modified Framingham Risk Factor Score for Systemic Lupus Erythematosus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urowitz, Murray B; Ibañez, Dominique; Su, Jiandong; Gladman, Dafna D

    2016-05-01

    The traditional Framingham Risk Factor Score (FRS) underestimates the risk for coronary artery disease (CAD) in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). We aimed to determine whether an adjustment to the FRS would more accurately reflect the higher prevalence of CAD among patients with SLE. Patients with SLE without a previous history of CAD or diabetes followed regularly at the University of Toronto Lupus Clinic were included. A modified FRS (mFRS) was calculated by multiplying the items by 1.5, 2, 3, or 4. In the first part of the study, using one-third of all eligible patients, we evaluated the sensitivity and specificity of the FRS and the different multipliers for the mFRS. In the second part of the study, using the remaining 2/3 of the eligible patients, we compared the predictive ability of the FRS to the mFRS. In the third part of the study, we assessed the prediction for CAD in a time-dependent analysis of the FRS and mFRS. There were 905 women (89.3%) with a total of 95 CAD events included. In part 1, we determined that a multiplier of 2 provided the best combination of sensitivity and specificity. In part 2, 2.4% of the patients were classified as moderate/high risk based on the classic FRS and 17.3% using the 2FRS (the FRS with a multiplier of 2). In part 3, a time-dependent covariate analysis for the prediction of the first CAD event revealed an HR of 3.22 (p = 0.07) for the classic FRS and 4.37 (p mFRS in which each item is multiplied by 2 more accurately predicts CAD in patients with SLE.

  2. Risk Factors for Death in Bangladeshi Children Under 5 Years of Age Hospitalized for Diarrhea and Severe Respiratory Distress in an Urban Critical Care Ward

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tahmina Alam MBBS

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Children with diarrhea hospitalized for respiratory distress often have fatal outcome in resource-limited settings, although data are lacking on risk factors for death in such children. We sought to evaluate clinical predictors for death in such children. In this prospective cohort study, we enrolled under-5 children with diarrhea admitted with severe respiratory distress to the intensive care unit of Dhaka Hospital of International Centre for Diarhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, from September 2014 through September 2015. We compared clinical and laboratory characteristics between study children those who died (n = 29 and those who survived (n = 62. In logistic regression analysis, after adjusting for potential confounders, the independent predictors for death in children hospitalized for diarrhea and severe respiratory distress were severe sepsis and hypoglycemia (P < .05 for all. Thus, recognition of these simple parameters may help clinicians identify children with diarrhea at risk of deaths in order to initiate prompt management for the better outcome, especially in resource-poor settings.

  3. Renal scarrings (RS) after acute pyelonephritis (APN) in the children under the age of 5 years and its correlation with clinical risk factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, B. S.; Moon, D. H.; Ahn, S. H.; Lee, W. W.; Yoon, S. Y.; Yoon, J. H.; Park, Y. S. [College of Medicine, Ulsan Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2001-07-01

    In children with APN, risk factors for the subsequent RS are still controversial. We evaluated the changes in renal cortical defects on the Tc-99m DMSA scan and the relationship between RS and risk factors. Patients were 143 children (age < 5 yrs) with first APN documented by the presence of fever (< 38.5 .deg. C ), and abnormal DMSA scan from 1994 to 2000. We performed a follow-up DMSA scan at 6 months. RS was defined as persistent or partially reversible abnormalities on the follow-up scan. Nine were excluded due to recurrent infection, and 58 who were lost to follow-up. A total of 76 (m/f =38/38) were available for the study (mean age : 1.19 yr, range: 47 day - 5.0 yr). Of 152 kidneys, DMSA was abnormal in 90. Initial defect was completely recovered in 52, partially recovered in 30, and persistent in 8 (38 RS). Univariate analysis revealed that duration of fever, C-reactive protein, and vesicoureteral reflux (VUR) were associated with RS. Multivariate analysis showed that duration of fever and VUR were independent predictors of RS. However, in patients with unilateral defect, only duration of fever (p=0.027) and relative function (p=0.002) were independent predictors. The severity and extent of acute inflammatory response may determine RS. DMSA may be of value because it provides information on the extent of initial parenchymal damage.

  4. Predicting stroke through genetic risk functions: the CHARGE Risk Score Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim-Verbaas, Carla A; Fornage, Myriam; Bis, Joshua C; Choi, Seung Hoan; Psaty, Bruce M; Meigs, James B; Rao, Madhu; Nalls, Mike; Fontes, Joao D; O'Donnell, Christopher J; Kathiresan, Sekar; Ehret, Georg B; Fox, Caroline S; Malik, Rainer; Dichgans, Martin; Schmidt, Helena; Lahti, Jari; Heckbert, Susan R; Lumley, Thomas; Rice, Kenneth; Rotter, Jerome I; Taylor, Kent D; Folsom, Aaron R; Boerwinkle, Eric; Rosamond, Wayne D; Shahar, Eyal; Gottesman, Rebecca F; Koudstaal, Peter J; Amin, Najaf; Wieberdink, Renske G; Dehghan, Abbas; Hofman, Albert; Uitterlinden, André G; Destefano, Anita L; Debette, Stephanie; Xue, Luting; Beiser, Alexa; Wolf, Philip A; Decarli, Charles; Ikram, M Arfan; Seshadri, Sudha; Mosley, Thomas H; Longstreth, W T; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Launer, Lenore J

    2014-02-01

    Beyond the Framingham Stroke Risk Score, prediction of future stroke may improve with a genetic risk score (GRS) based on single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with stroke and its risk factors. The study includes 4 population-based cohorts with 2047 first incident strokes from 22,720 initially stroke-free European origin participants aged ≥55 years, who were followed for up to 20 years. GRSs were constructed with 324 single-nucleotide polymorphisms implicated in stroke and 9 risk factors. The association of the GRS to first incident stroke was tested using Cox regression; the GRS predictive properties were assessed with area under the curve statistics comparing the GRS with age and sex, Framingham Stroke Risk Score models, and reclassification statistics. These analyses were performed per cohort and in a meta-analysis of pooled data. Replication was sought in a case-control study of ischemic stroke. In the meta-analysis, adding the GRS to the Framingham Stroke Risk Score, age and sex model resulted in a significant improvement in discrimination (all stroke: Δjoint area under the curve=0.016, P=2.3×10(-6); ischemic stroke: Δjoint area under the curve=0.021, P=3.7×10(-7)), although the overall area under the curve remained low. In all the studies, there was a highly significantly improved net reclassification index (Pstroke and its risk factors result only in a small improvement in prediction of future stroke compared with the classical epidemiological risk factors for stroke.

  5. Twelve-single nucleotide polymorphism genetic risk score identifies individuals at increased risk for future atrial fibrillation and stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tada, Hayato; Shiffman, Dov; Smith, J Gustav; Sjögren, Marketa; Lubitz, Steven A; Ellinor, Patrick T; Louie, Judy Z; Catanese, Joseph J; Engström, Gunnar; Devlin, James J; Kathiresan, Sekar; Melander, Olle

    2014-10-01

    Atrial fibrillation (AF) is prevalent and there is a clinical need for biomarkers to identify individuals at higher risk for AF. Fixed throughout a life course and assayable early in life, genetic biomarkers may meet this need. Here, we investigate whether multiple single nucleotide polymorphisms together as an AF genetic risk score (AF-GRS) can improve prediction of one's risk for AF. In 27 471 participants of the Malmö Diet and Cancer Study, a prospective, community-based cohort, we used Cox models that adjusted for established AF risk factors to assess the association of AF-GRS with incident AF and ischemic stroke. Median follow-up was 14.4 years for incident AF and 14.5 years for ischemic stroke. The AF-GRS comprised 12 single nucleotide polymorphisms that had been previously shown to be associated with AF at genome-wide significance. During follow-up, 2160 participants experienced a first AF event and 1495 had a first ischemic stroke event. Participants in the top AF-GRS quintile were at increased risk for incident AF (hazard ratio, 2.00; 95% confidence interval, 1.73-2.31; P=2.7×10(-21)) and ischemic stroke (hazard ratio, 1.23; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.46; P=0.02) when compared with the bottom quintile. Addition of the AF-GRS to established AF risk factors modestly improved both discrimination and reclassification (Pstroke. Targeting diagnostic or therapeutic interventions to this subset may prove clinically useful. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

  6. Risk Factors for Malnutrition among Children 5-years and Younger in the Akuapim-North District in the Eastern Region of Ghana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alex Kojo Anderson

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Malnutrition remains a significant public health problem in developing countries. The aim of thisstudy was to identify risk factors for malnutrition among preschool children in the Akwapim-North District inthe Eastern Region of Ghana. This was a cross-sectional study. Mothers who brought their children to the “WellBaby Check-up” clinics were invited to participate. Anthropometric measurements (weight and height/lengthand blood hemoglobin were measured. Mothers also completed a questionnaire consisting of closed andopen-ended questions. A total of 305 pre-school-age children were included in this study. Of this sample,43.3% were males, and 56.7% were females. The prevalence of wasting, stunting, and underweight was 6.2,11.4 and 7.3%, respectively. The majority of the children (80.7% were anemic. Children who wereexclusively breastfed for 6 months showed slightly lower prevalence of both anemia (75.5% vs. 89.0% andstunting (8% vs. 13% but not wasting (8.3% vs. 4.3% or underweight (8.3% vs. 5.2% compared to theirmixed feeding counterparts. Children under 12 months of age showed a higher prevalence of wasting (9.4%compared to other age groups. Children from homes with electricity showed lower prevalence of stunting(9.7% vs. 17.6%, p = 0.050, and children from households with a radio showed lower prevalence of wasting(5.3% vs. 19.0%, p = 0.033. Nutrition education encouraging exclusive breastfeeding and adequate provisionof animal protein to preschool children is important in semi-rural and farming communities in developingcountries such as Ghana in order to combat the prevalence of childhood malnutrition (stunting, wasting,underweight and anemia.

  7. Individualized Risk of Surgical Complications: An Application of the Breast Reconstruction Risk Assessment Score

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mlodinow, Alexei S.; Khavanin, Nima; Hume, Keith M.; Simmons, Christopher J.; Weiss, Michael J.; Murphy, Robert X.; Gutowski, Karol A.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Risk discussion is a central tenet of the dialogue between surgeon and patient. Risk calculators have recently offered a new way to integrate evidence-based practice into the discussion of individualized patient risk and expectation management. Focusing on the comprehensive Tracking Operations and Outcomes for Plastic Surgeons (TOPS) database, we endeavored to add plastic surgical outcomes to the previously developed Breast Reconstruction Risk Assessment (BRA) score. Methods: The TOPS database from 2008 to 2011 was queried for patients undergoing breast reconstruction. Regression models were constructed for the following complications: seroma, dehiscence, surgical site infection (SSI), explantation, flap failure, reoperation, and overall complications. Results: Of 11,992 cases, 4439 met inclusion criteria. Overall complication rate was 15.9%, with rates of 3.4% for seroma, 4.0% for SSI, 6.1% for dehiscence, 3.7% for explantation, 7.0% for flap loss, and 6.4% for reoperation. Individualized risk models were developed with acceptable goodness of fit, accuracy, and internal validity. Distribution of overall complication risk was broad and asymmetric, meaning that the average risk was often a poor estimate of the risk for any given patient. These models were added to the previously developed open-access version of the risk calculator, available at http://www.BRAscore.org. Conclusions: Population-based measures of risk may not accurately reflect risk for many individual patients. In this era of increasing emphasis on evidence-based medicine, we have developed a breast reconstruction risk assessment calculator from the robust TOPS database. The BRA Score tool can aid in individualizing—and quantifying—risk to better inform surgical decision making and better manage patient expectations. PMID:26090295

  8. Validity Assessment of Low-risk SCORE Function and SCORE Function Calibrated to the Spanish Population in the FRESCO Cohorts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baena-Díez, José Miguel; Subirana, Isaac; Ramos, Rafael; Gómez de la Cámara, Agustín; Elosua, Roberto; Vila, Joan; Marín-Ibáñez, Alejandro; Guembe, María Jesús; Rigo, Fernando; Tormo-Díaz, María José; Moreno-Iribas, Conchi; Cabré, Joan Josep; Segura, Antonio; Lapetra, José; Quesada, Miquel; Medrano, María José; González-Diego, Paulino; Frontera, Guillem; Gavrila, Diana; Ardanaz, Eva; Basora, Josep; García, José María; García-Lareo, Manel; Gutiérrez-Fuentes, José Antonio; Mayoral, Eduardo; Sala, Joan; R Degano, Irene; Francès, Albert; Castell, Conxa; Grau, María; Marrugat, Jaume

    2017-05-26

    To assess the validity of the original low-risk SCORE function without and with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and SCORE calibrated to the Spanish population. Pooled analysis with individual data from 12 Spanish population-based cohort studies. We included 30 919 individuals aged 40 to 64 years with no history of cardiovascular disease at baseline, who were followed up for 10 years for the causes of death included in the SCORE project. The validity of the risk functions was analyzed with the area under the ROC curve (discrimination) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (calibration), respectively. Follow-up comprised 286 105 persons/y. Ten-year cardiovascular mortality was 0.6%. The ratio between estimated/observed cases ranged from 9.1, 6.5, and 9.1 in men and 3.3, 1.3, and 1.9 in women with original low-risk SCORE risk function without and with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and calibrated SCORE, respectively; differences were statistically significant with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test between predicted and observed mortality with SCORE (P < .001 in both sexes and with all functions). The area under the ROC curve with the original SCORE was 0.68 in men and 0.69 in women. All versions of the SCORE functions available in Spain significantly overestimate the cardiovascular mortality observed in the Spanish population. Despite the acceptable discrimination capacity, prediction of the number of fatal cardiovascular events (calibration) was significantly inaccurate. Copyright © 2017 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  9. Comprehensive coronary risk determination in primary prevention: an imaging and clinical based definition combining computed tomographic coronary artery calcium score and national cholesterol education program risk score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasir, Khurram; Vasamreddy, Chandra; Blumenthal, Roger S; Rumberger, John A

    2006-06-16

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of mortality and a major cause of morbidity. Coronary heart disease (CHD) accounts for nearly half of all CVD deaths. Currently estimation of risk in primary prevention is based on the Framingham risk equations, which inputs traditional risk factors and is helpful in predicting the development of CHD in asymptomatic individuals. However many individuals suffer events in the absence of established risk factors for atherosclerosis and broad based population risk estimations may have little precision when applied to a given individual. To meet the challenge of CHD risk assessment, several tools have been developed to identify atherosclerotic disease in its preclinical stages. This paper aims to incorporate information from coronary artery calcification (CAC) scoring from a computed tomographic "heartscan" (using Electron Beam Tomography (EBT) as the validated prototype) along with current Framingham risk profiling in order to refine risk on an absolute scale by combining imaging and clinical data to affect a more comprehensive calculation of absolute risk in a given individual. For CAC scores above the 75th percentile but or =55 years, women> or =65 years) a CAC = 0 will result in an age point score corresponding to the age-group whose median CAC score is zero i.e., 40-44 years for men and 55-59 years for women. The utilization of CAC scores allows the inclusion of sub-clinical disease definition into the context of modifiable risk factors as well as identifies high-risk individuals requiring aggressive treatment.

  10. Development and validation of a clinical scoring system for predicting risk of HCC in asymptomatic individuals seropositive for anti-HCV antibodies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mei-Hsuan Lee

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The development of a risk assessment tool for long-term hepatocellular carcinoma risk would be helpful in identifying high-risk patients and providing information of clinical consultation. METHODS: The model derivation and validation cohorts consisted of 975 and 572 anti-HCV seropositives, respectively. The model included age, alanine aminotransferase (ALT, the ratio of aspirate aminotransferase to ALT, serum HCV RNA levels and cirrhosis status and HCV genotype. Two risk prediction models were developed: one was for all-anti-HCV seropositives, and the other was for anti-HCV seropositives with detectable HCV RNA. The Cox's proportional hazards models were utilized to estimate regression coefficients of HCC risk predictors to derive risk scores. The cumulative HCC risks in the validation cohort were estimated by Kaplan-Meier methods. The area under receiver operating curve (AUROC was used to evaluate the performance of the risk models. RESULTS: All predictors were significantly associated with HCC. The summary risk scores of two models derived from the derivation cohort had predictability of HCC risk in the validation cohort. The summary risk score of the two risk prediction models clearly divided the validation cohort into three groups (p<0.001. The AUROC for predicting 5-year HCC risk in the validation cohort was satisfactory for the two models, with 0.73 and 0.70, respectively. CONCLUSION: Scoring systems for predicting HCC risk of HCV-infected patients had good validity and discrimination capability, which may triage patients for alternative management strategies.

  11. Cell cycle progression score is a marker for five-year lung cancer-specific mortality risk in patients with resected stage I lung adenocarcinoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eguchi, Takashi; Kadota, Kyuichi; Chaft, Jamie; Evans, Brent; Kidd, John; Tan, Kay See; Dycoco, Joe; Kolquist, Kathryn; Davis, Thaylon; Hamilton, Stephanie A.; Yager, Kraig; Jones, Joshua T.; Travis, William D.; Jones, David R.; Hartman, Anne-Renee; Adusumilli, Prasad S.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose The goals of our study were (a) to validate a molecular expression signature (cell cycle progression [CCP] score and molecular prognostic score [mPS; combination of CCP and pathological stage {IA or IB}]) that identifies stage I lung adenocarcinoma (ADC) patients with a higher risk of cancer-specific death following curative-intent surgical resection, and (b) to determine whether mPS stratifies prognosis within stage I lung ADC histological subtypes. Methods Formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded stage I lung ADC tumor samples from 1200 patients were analyzed for 31 proliferation genes by quantitative RT-PCR. Prognostic discrimination of CCP score and mPS was assessed by Cox proportional hazards regression, using 5-year lung cancer–specific mortality as the primary outcome. Results In multivariable analysis, CCP score was a prognostic marker for 5-year lung cancer–specific mortality (HR=1.6 per interquartile range; 95% CI, 1.14–2.24; P=0.006). In a multivariable model that included mPS instead of CCP, mPS was a significant prognostic marker for 5-year lung cancer–specific mortality (HR=1.77; 95% CI, 1.18–2.66; P=0.006). Five-year lung cancer–specific survival differed between low-risk and high-risk mPS groups (96% vs 81%; P<0.001). In patients with intermediate-grade lung ADC of acinar and papillary subtypes, high mPS was associated with worse 5-year lung cancer–specific survival (P<0.001 and 0.015, respectively), compared with low mPS. Conclusion This study validates CCP score and mPS as independent prognostic markers for lung cancer–specific mortality and provides quantitative risk assessment, independent of known high-risk features, for stage I lung ADC patients treated with surgery alone. PMID:27153551

  12. Evaluation of risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus in medical students using Indian diabetes risk score

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    Pranita Ashok

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: According to World Health Organisation, type 2 diabetes mellitus [type 2 D. M] has recently escalated in all age groups and is now being identified in younger age groups. This underscores the need for mass awareness and screening programs to detect diabetes at an early stage. For this purpose we have used a simplified Indian Diabetes Risk Score (IDRS for prediction of diabetes in undergraduate medical students. Objectives: To screen and to identify 1st MBBS students at risk for developing type 2 D. M using IDRS. Materials and Methods : 261 undergraduates (1st MBBS students were scored using IDRS which includes age, family history of diabetes, exercise status, and waist circumference. After scoring them, we assessed random capillary blood glucose (RCBG in students with high IDRS score. Students with RCBG ≥ 113 mg/dl are followed for definitive tests for diagnosis of prediabetes and diabetes. Results and Conclusion: We have assessed 261 students till now. It was observed that 5%, 55%, and 38% students in High, Moderate, and Low risk group, respectively, for developing type 2 D. M. The mean abdominal obesity in high risk students was 101.95 ± 5.76 as compared to 79.17 ± 11.08 in moderate and low risk students (P 113 mg/dl in which one student found to have prediabetic. Conclusion: This underscores the need for further investigations to detect diabetes at an early stage and to overcome the disease burden of diabetes in future. Prevention of obesity and promotion of physical activity have to be the future plan of action which can be suggested in the form of regular exercise and diet planning for the students as part of an integrated approach.

  13. Risk scores for diabetes and impaired glycaemia in the Middle East and North Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Handlos, Line Neerup; Witte, Daniel Rinse; Almdal, Thomas Peter

    2013-01-01

    AIMS: To develop risk scores for diabetes and diabetes or impaired glycaemia for individuals living in the Middle East and North Africa region. In addition, to derive national risk scores for Algeria, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and to compare the performance of the regional risk...

  14. Risk scores for diabetes and impaired glycaemia in the Middle East and North Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Handlos, Line Neerup; Witte, Daniel Rinse; Almdal, Thomas Peter

    2013-01-01

    AIMS: To develop risk scores for diabetes and diabetes or impaired glycaemia for individuals living in the Middle East and North Africa region. In addition, to derive national risk scores for Algeria, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and to compare the performance of the regional risk...

  15. The ability of the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association cardiovascular risk score to identify rheumatoid arthritis patients with high coronary artery calcification scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawai, Vivian K; Chung, Cecilia P; Solus, Joseph F; Oeser, Annette; Raggi, Paolo; Stein, C Michael

    2015-02-01

    Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have increased risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease that is underestimated by the Framingham Risk Score (FRS). We undertook this study to test the hypothesis that the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) 10-year risk score would perform better than the FRS and the Reynolds Risk Score (RRS) in identifying RA patients known to have elevated cardiovascular risk based on high coronary artery calcification (CAC) scores. Among 98 RA patients eligible for risk stratification using the ACC/AHA risk score, we identified 34 patients with high CAC (defined as ≥300 Agatston units or ≥75th percentile of expected coronary artery calcium for age, sex, and ethnicity) and compared the ability of the 10-year FRS, RRS, and ACC/AHA risk scores to correctly assign these patients to an elevated risk category. All 3 risk scores were higher in patients with high CAC (P risk category was similar among the 3 scores (FRS 32%, RRS 32%, ACC/AHA risk score 41%) (P = 0.223). The C statistics for the FRS, RRS, and ACC/AHA risk score predicting the presence of high CAC were 0.65, 0.66, and 0.65, respectively. The ACC/AHA 10-year risk score does not offer any advantage compared to the traditional FRS and RRS in the identification of RA patients with elevated risk as determined by high CAC. The ACC/AHA risk score assigned almost 60% of patients with high CAC to a low risk category. Risk scores and standard risk prediction models used in the general population do not adequately identify many RA patients with elevated cardiovascular risk.

  16. A modified Glasgow Blatchford Score improves risk stratification in upper gastrointestinal bleed: a prospective comparison of scoring systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, D W; Lu, Y W; Teller, T; Sekhon, H K; Wu, B U

    2012-10-01

    Several risk scoring systems exist for upper gastrointestinal bleed (UGIB). We hypothesised that a modified Glasgow Blatchford Score (mGBS) that eliminates the subjective components of the GBS might perform as well as current scoring systems. To compare the performance of the mGBS to the most widely reported scoring systems for prediction of clinical outcomes in patients presenting with UGIB. Prospective cohort study from 9/2010 to 9/2011. Accuracy of the mGBS was compared with the full GBS, full Rockall Score (RS) and clinical RS using area under the receiver operating characterstics-curve (AUC). PRIMARY OUTCOME was need for clinical intervention: blood transfusion, endoscopic, radiological or surgical intervention. Secondary outcome was repeat bleeding or mortality. One hundred and ninety-nine patients were included. Median age was 56 with 40% women. Thirty-two per cent patients required blood transfusion, 24% endoscopic interventions, 0.5% radiological intervention, 0 surgical interventions, 5% had repeat bleeding and 0.5% mortality. the mGBS (AUC 0.85) performed as well as the GBS (AUC = 0.86, P = 0.81), and outperformed the full RS (AUC 0.75, P = 0.005) and clinical RS (AUC 0.66, P upper gastrointestinal bleed. By eliminating the subjective components of the Glasgow Blatchford Score, the modified Glasgow Blatchford Score may be easier to use and therefore more easily implemented into routine clinical practice. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  17. Physicians' perceptions of the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score in older adults with acute myocardial infarction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feder, Shelli L; Schulman-Green, Dena; Geda, Mary; Williams, Kathleen; Dodson, John A; Nanna, Michael G; Allore, Heather G; Murphy, Terrence E; Tinetti, Mary E; Gill, Thomas M; Chaudhry, Sarwat I

    2015-01-01

    To evaluate physician-perceived strengths and limitations of the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk scores for use in older adults with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). The TIMI risk scores are risk stratification models developed to estimate mortality risk for patients hospitalized for AMI. However, these models were developed and validated in cohorts underrepresenting older adults (≥75 years). Qualitative study using semi-structured telephone interviews and the constant comparative method for analysis. Twenty-two physicians completed interviews ranging 10-30 min (mean = 18 min). Median sample age was 37 years, with a median of 11.5 years of clinical experience. TIMI strengths included familiarity, ease of use, and validation. Limitations included a lack of risk factors relevant to older adults and model scope and influence. Physicians report that the TIMI models, while widely used in clinical practice, have limitations when applied to older adults. New risk models are needed to guide AMI treatment in this population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Physicians’ Perceptions of the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) Risk Score in Older Adults with Acute Myocardial Infarction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feder, Shelli L.; Schulman-Green, Dena; Geda, Mary; Williams, Kathleen; Dodson, John A.; Nanna, Michael G.; Allore, Heather G.; Murphy, Terrence E.; Tinetti, Mary E.; Gill, Thomas M.; Chaudhry, Sarwat I.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives To evaluate physician-perceived strengths and limitations of the Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk scores for use in older adults with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Background The TIMI risk scores are risk stratification models developed to estimate mortality risk for patients hospitalized for AMI. However, these models were developed and validated in cohorts underrepresenting older adults (≥75 years). Methods Qualitative study using semi-structured telephone interviews and the constant comparative method for analysis. Results Twenty-two physicians completed interviews ranging 10–30 minutes (mean = 18 minutes). Median sample age was 37 years, with a median of 11.5 years of clinical experience. TIMI strengths included familiarity, ease of use, and validation. Limitations included a lack of risk factors relevant to older adults and model scope and influence. Conclusions Physicians report that the TIMI models, while widely used in clinical practice, have limitations when applied to older adults. New risk models are needed to guide AMI treatment in this population. PMID:26164651

  19. Editorial: risk scoring for colon cancer screening: validated, but still not ready for prime time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Otto S

    2011-06-01

    Risk stratification for colorectal cancer screening would allow us to use less expensive screening tests, such as sigmoidoscopy with or without fecal blood testing, on lower risk individuals, and reserve colonoscopy for those at higher risk. In this issue, Levitzky et al. validates a risk score that was previously developed by Imperiale et al., finding similar results among three ethnic groups. Risk scoring would detect 82-87% of proximal advanced neoplasia while decreasing colonoscopy use by 33-46%. However, before risk scoring is ready for widespread use, sigmoidoscopy access and performance issues need to be addressed, and we must be comfortable with missing some proximal neoplasms.

  20. Adding multiple risk factors improves Framingham coronary heart disease risk scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Guizhou; Root, Martin; Duncan, Ashlee W

    2014-01-01

    Since the introduction of the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), numerous versions of coronary heart disease (CHD) prediction models have claimed improvement over the FRS. Tzoulaki et al challenged the validity of these claims by illustrating methodology deficiencies among the studies. However, the question remains: Is it possible to create a new CHD model that is better than FRS while overcoming the noted deficiencies? To address this, a new CHD prediction model was developed by integrating additional risk factors, using a novel modeling process. Using the National Health Nutritional Examination Survey III data set with CHD-specific mortality outcomes and the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities data set with CHD incidence outcomes, two FRSs (FRSv1 from 1998 and FRSv2 from National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III), along with an additional risk score in which the high density lipoprotein (HDL) component of FRSv1 was ignored (FRSHDL), were compared with a new CHD model (NEW-CHD). This new model contains seven elements: the original Framingham equation, FRSv1, and six additional risk factors. Discrimination, calibration, and reclassification improvements all were assessed among models. Discrimination was improved for NEW-CHD in both cohorts when compared with FRSv1 and FRSv2 (Prisk assessment when compared with the FRSs, comparable to the improvement of adding HDL to the FRS.

  1. Attributable fractions, modifiable risk factors and risk stratification using a risk score for peri-implant pathology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Araújo Nobre, Miguel; Mano Azul, António; Rocha, Evangelista; Maló, Paulo; Salvado, Francisco

    2017-01-01

    This study aimed to estimate the impact of risk factors for peri-implant pathology, to identify potentially modifiable factors, and to evaluate the accuracy of the risk algorithm, risk scores and risk stratification. This retrospective case-control study with 1275 patients (255 cases; 1020 controls) retrieved a model according to the predictors: history of Periodontitis, bacterial plaque, bleeding, bone level, lack of passive fit or non-optimal screw joint, metal-ceramic restoration, proximity to other implants/teeth, and smoking habits. Outcome measures were the attributable fraction; the positive and negative likelihood ratios at different disease cut-off points illustrated by the area under the curve statistic. Six predictors may be modified or controlled directly by either the patient or the clinician, accounting for a reduction in up to 95% of the peri-implant pathology cases. The positive and negative likelihood ratios were 9.69 and 0.13, respectively; the area under the curve was 0.96; a risk score was developed, making the complex statistical model useful to clinicians. Based on the results, six predictors for the incidence of peri-implant pathology can be modified to significantly improve the outcome. It was possible to stratify patients per risk category according to the risk score, providing a tool for clinicians to support their decision-making process. Copyright © 2016 Japan Prosthodontic Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. A risk score to predict type 2 diabetes mellitus in an elderly Spanish Mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk.

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    Marta Guasch-Ferré

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: To develop and test a diabetes risk score to predict incident diabetes in an elderly Spanish Mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A diabetes risk score was derived from a subset of 1381 nondiabetic individuals from three centres of the PREDIMED study (derivation sample. Multivariate Cox regression model ß-coefficients were used to weigh each risk factor. PREDIMED-personal Score included body-mass-index, smoking status, family history of type 2 diabetes, alcohol consumption and hypertension as categorical variables; PREDIMED-clinical Score included also high blood glucose. We tested the predictive capability of these scores in the DE-PLAN-CAT cohort (validation sample. The discrimination of Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC, German Diabetes Risk Score (GDRS and our scores was assessed with the area under curve (AUC. RESULTS: The PREDIMED-clinical Score varied from 0 to 14 points. In the subset of the PREDIMED study, 155 individuals developed diabetes during the 4.75-years follow-up. The PREDIMED-clinical score at a cutoff of ≥6 had sensitivity of 72.2%, and specificity of 72.5%, whereas AUC was 0.78. The AUC of the PREDIMED-clinical Score was 0.66 in the validation sample (sensitivity = 85.4%; specificity = 26.6%, and was significantly higher than the FINDRISC and the GDRS in both the derivation and validation samples. DISCUSSION: We identified classical risk factors for diabetes and developed the PREDIMED-clinical Score to determine those individuals at high risk of developing diabetes in elderly individuals at high cardiovascular risk. The predictive capability of the PREDIMED-clinical Score was significantly higher than the FINDRISC and GDRS, and also used fewer items in the questionnaire.

  3. A Risk Score to Predict Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in an Elderly Spanish Mediterranean Population at High Cardiovascular Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guasch-Ferré, Marta; Bulló, Mònica; Costa, Bernardo; Martínez-Gonzalez, Miguel Ángel; Ibarrola-Jurado, Núria; Estruch, Ramon; Barrio, Francisco; Salas-Salvadó, Jordi

    2012-01-01

    Introduction To develop and test a diabetes risk score to predict incident diabetes in an elderly Spanish Mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk. Materials and Methods A diabetes risk score was derived from a subset of 1381 nondiabetic individuals from three centres of the PREDIMED study (derivation sample). Multivariate Cox regression model ß-coefficients were used to weigh each risk factor. PREDIMED-personal Score included body-mass-index, smoking status, family history of type 2 diabetes, alcohol consumption and hypertension as categorical variables; PREDIMED-clinical Score included also high blood glucose. We tested the predictive capability of these scores in the DE-PLAN-CAT cohort (validation sample). The discrimination of Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC), German Diabetes Risk Score (GDRS) and our scores was assessed with the area under curve (AUC). Results The PREDIMED-clinical Score varied from 0 to 14 points. In the subset of the PREDIMED study, 155 individuals developed diabetes during the 4.75-years follow-up. The PREDIMED-clinical score at a cutoff of ≥6 had sensitivity of 72.2%, and specificity of 72.5%, whereas AUC was 0.78. The AUC of the PREDIMED-clinical Score was 0.66 in the validation sample (sensitivity = 85.4%; specificity = 26.6%), and was significantly higher than the FINDRISC and the GDRS in both the derivation and validation samples. Discussion We identified classical risk factors for diabetes and developed the PREDIMED-clinical Score to determine those individuals at high risk of developing diabetes in elderly individuals at high cardiovascular risk. The predictive capability of the PREDIMED-clinical Score was significantly higher than the FINDRISC and GDRS, and also used fewer items in the questionnaire. PMID:22442692

  4. MODALITY OF DETERMINING THE TOTAL SCORE OF RISKS IN INTERNAL AUDIT

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    FRANCA DUMITRU

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Risk analysis materializes in: applying to the weightings of risk factors the level of risk assessment, on risk factors, based on the assessments made by auditors regarding: the functionality of internal control, the influence of quantitative and qualitative elements; determination of the total risk score, which represents a sum of weights between the appreciation level of each risk and the weightings of risk factors.

  5. Polygenic risk score is associated with increased disease risk in 52 Finnish breast cancer families.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muranen, Taru A; Mavaddat, Nasim; Khan, Sofia; Fagerholm, Rainer; Pelttari, Liisa; Lee, Andrew; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Blomqvist, Carl; Easton, Douglas F; Nevanlinna, Heli

    2016-08-01

    The risk of developing breast cancer is increased in women with family history of breast cancer and particularly in families with multiple cases of breast or ovarian cancer. Nevertheless, many women with a positive family history never develop the disease. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) based on the risk effects of multiple common genetic variants have been proposed for individual risk assessment on a population level. We investigate the applicability of the PRS for risk prediction within breast cancer families. We studied the association between breast cancer risk and a PRS based on 75 common genetic variants in 52 Finnish breast cancer families including 427 genotyped women and pedigree information on ~4000 additional individuals by comparing the affected to healthy family members, as well as in a case-control dataset comprising 1272 healthy population controls and 1681 breast cancer cases with information on family history. Family structure was summarized using the BOADICEA risk prediction model. The PRS was associated with increased disease risk in women with family history of breast cancer as well as in women within the breast cancer families. The odds ratio (OR) for breast cancer within the family dataset was 1.55 [95 % CI 1.26-1.91] per unit increase in the PRS, similar to OR in unselected breast cancer cases of the case-control dataset (1.49 [1.38-1.62]). High PRS-values were informative for risk prediction in breast cancer families, whereas for the low PRS-categories the results were inconclusive. The PRS is informative in women with family history of breast cancer and should be incorporated within pedigree-based clinical risk assessment.

  6. Modified Mediterranean diet score and cardiovascular risk in a North American working population.

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    Justin Yang

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Greater adherence to a Mediterranean diet is linked to lower risk for cardiovascular morbidity/mortality in studies of Mediterranean cohorts, older subjects, and/or those with existing health conditions. No studies have examined the effects of this dietary pattern in younger working populations in the United States. We investigated the effects of Mediterranean diet adherence on cardiovascular disease (CVD biomarkers, metabolic syndrome and body composition in an occupationally active, non-Mediterranean cohort. METHODS: A cross-sectional study in a cohort of 780 career male firefighters, ages 18 years or older, from the United States Midwest. No dietary intervention was performed. A modified Mediterranean diet score (mMDS was developed for assessment of adherence to a Mediterranean dietary pattern from a previously administered life-style questionnaire that examined pre-existing dietary habits. Clinical data from fire department medical examinations were extracted and analyzed. RESULTS: Obese subjects had significantly lower mMDS, and they reported greater fast/take-out food consumption (p<0.001 and intake of sweetened drinks during meals (p = 0.002. After multivariate adjustment, higher mMDS was inversely related to risk of weight gain over the past 5 years (odds ratio [OR]: 0.57, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.39-0.84, p for trend across score quartiles: 0.01; as well as the presence of metabolic syndrome components (OR: 0.65, 95% CI: 0.44-0.94, p for trend across score quartiles: 0.04. Higher HDL-cholesterol (p = 0.008 and lower LDL-cholesterol (p = 0.04 were observed in those with higher mMDS in linear regression after multivariate adjustment for age, BMI and physical activity. CONCLUSIONS: In a cohort of young and active US adults, greater adherence to a Mediterranean-style dietary pattern had significant inverse associations with metabolic syndrome, LDL-cholesterol and reported weight gain, and was significantly and

  7. Poor predictive ability of the risk chart SCORE in a Danish population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Saidj, Madina; Jørgensen, Torben; Prescott, Eva

    2013-01-01

    In Denmark, the European risk chart Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) from the European Society of Cardiology is recommended for use in cardiovascular prevention. Nevertheless, its predictive ability in a Danish population has never been investigated. The purpose of this study was there...... was therefore to assess the predictive ability of the SCORE risk chart with regard to fatal cardiovascular risk according to the socio-demographic factors of age, sex, income and education in a Danish population....

  8. The application of European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation II (EuroSCORE II and Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS risk-score for risk stratification in Indian patients undergoing cardiac surgery

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    Deepak Borde

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims and Objectives: To validate European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation II (EuroSCORE II and Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS risk-score for predicting mortality and STS risk-score for predicting morbidity in Indian patients after cardiac surgery. Materials and Methods: EuroSCORE II and STS risk-scores were obtained pre-operatively for 498 consecutive patients. The patients were followed for mortality and various morbidities. The calibration of the scoring systems was assessed using Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The discriminative capacity was estimated by area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves. Results: The mortality was 1.6%. For EuroSCORE II and STS risk-score C-statics of 5.43 and 6.11 were obtained indicating satisfactory model fit for both the scores. Area under ROC was 0.69 and 0.65 for EuroSCORE II and STS risk-score with P values of 0.068 and 0.15, respectively, indicating poor discriminatory power. Good fit and discrimination was obtained for renal failure, long-stay in hospital, prolonged ventilator support and deep sternal wound infection but the scores failed in predicting risk of reoperation and stroke. Mortality risk was correctly estimated in low ( 5% patients by both scoring systems. Conclusions: EuroSCORE II and STS risk-scores have satisfactory calibration power in Indian patients but their discriminatory power is poor. Mortality risk was over-estimated by both the scoring systems in high-risk patients. The present study highlights the need for forming a national database and formulating risk stratification tools to provide better quality care to cardiac surgical patients in India.

  9. The high-density lipoprotein-adjusted SCORE model worsens SCORE-based risk classification in a contemporary population of 30 824 Europeans

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Martin B; Afzal, Shoaib; Nordestgaard, Børge G

    2015-01-01

    AIMS: Recent European guidelines recommend to include high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol in risk assessment for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD), using a SCORE-based risk model (SCORE-HDL). We compared the predictive performance of SCORE-HDL with SCORE in an independent......, contemporary, 'low-risk' European population, focusing on ability to identify those in need of intensified CVD prevention. METHODS AND RESULTS: Between 2003 and 2008, 46,092 individuals without CVD, diabetes, or statin use were enrolled in the Copenhagen General Population Study (CGPS). During a mean of 6.......8 years of follow-up, 339 individuals died of CVD. In the SCORE target population (age 40-65; n = 30,824), fewer individuals were at baseline categorized as high risk (≥5% 10-year risk of fatal CVD) using SCORE-HDL compared with SCORE (10 vs. 17% in men, 1 vs. 3% in women). SCORE-HDL did not improve...

  10. [Prematurity risk according to prematurity risk score and postpartal morbidity of the newborn infants (author's transl)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coradello, H; Lubec, G; Simbruner, G

    1981-02-01

    Risk of premature birth was evaluated retrospectively in 610 women in the first days after delivery using the prematurity risk score published by Thalhammer 1973. The calculated risk of premature birth was compared than prospectively to postpartal morbidity of the newborn infants as determined by duration of hospital stay, incidence of respiratory distress syndrome, need of artificial ventilation and mortality. A positive correlation could be found between risk of premature birth and postpartal morbidity of the newborn infants especially in small premature infants with birthweights of 2000 grams and less. The same correlation existed also in two groups of infants out of two different obstetric clinics which showed the same distribution of prenatal risks and the same prenatal care frequencies. It clearly becomes evident that infants with the same prenatal risks but good prenatal care during pregnancy had much lower hospital stays, lower respiratory distress frequencies and lower mortality rates than babies delivered from pregnancies badly cared for. These prenatal care related differences in postpartum morbidity again were much more evident in infants out of lower birth weight classes.

  11. Verification of risk scores to predict i.v. immunoglobulin resistance in incomplete Kawasaki disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanamitsu, Kiichiro; Kakimoto, Hisako; Shimada, Akira; Nakata, Yusei; Ochi, Hiroaki; Watanabe, Hirokazu; Iwasaki, Yuka; Tokorodani, Chiho; Kanazawa, Akane; Maruyama, Hidehiko; Miyazawa, Mari; Nishiuchi, Ritsuo; Kikkawa, Kiyoshi

    2016-02-01

    A recent study indicated the efficacy of the addition of prednisolone to i.v. immunoglobulin (IVIG) as initial treatment in patients with higher risk of IVIG resistance. Several different risk scores for predicting IVIG resistance have been proposed, mainly based on typical Kawasaki disease (KD) patients. We investigated the utility of the risk scores to predict IVIG resistance in incomplete KD. Clinical records of incomplete KD patients who received a single dose of IVIG between 2005 and 2012 at Kochi Health Sciences Center were retrospectively reviewed. Patients were classified into an IVIG-responsive group and an IVIG-resistant group. The Kobayashi, Egami, and Sano risk scores were calculated for each patient and the proportion of high-risk patients was compared between the two groups for each risk score. For 51 incomplete KD patients, Kobayashi (66.7% vs 47.6%, P = 0.253), Egami (55.6% vs 38.1%, P = 0.274), and Sano (57.1% vs 10.8%, P = 0.068) risk scores identified a higher proportion of high-risk patients in the IVIG-resistant group compared with the IVIG-responsive group, but significant difference was not observed. Sano risk score had the highest OR (6.19; 95%CI: 1.00-38.26). The proportion of patients identified as being at high risk for IVIG resistance using the Kobayashi, Egami, and Sano risk scores, respectively, was not significantly different between the IVIG-responsive group and the IVIG-resistant group for incomplete KD. Among the three risk scores, the Sano risk score has the best ability to predict IVIG resistance in incomplete KD. © 2015 Japan Pediatric Society.

  12. Systematic review of obesity surgery mortality risk score--preoperative risk stratification in bariatric surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Harun; Agrawal, Sanjay

    2012-07-01

    Bariatric surgery is the best long term treatment for morbid obesity. However, it carries risks of considerable morbidity and potential mortality. There is no published review on pre-operative identification of high-risk patients in bariatric surgery. This systematic review analyses obesity surgery mortality risk score (OS-MRS) as a tool for pre-operative prediction of mortality risk in bariatric surgery. Medline and Embase was systematically searched using the medical subjects headings (MeSH) terms 'bariatric surgery' and 'mortality' with further free text search and cross references. Studies that described OS-MRS to predict mortality risk after bariatric surgery were included in this review. Six studies evaluated 9,382 patients to assess the validity of OS-MRS to predict the mortality risk after bariatric surgery. Patient's age ranged from 19 to 67 years, and the body mass index ranged from 30 to 84. There were 83 deaths among the 9,382 patients (0.88 %) with individual studies reporting a mortality range from 0 % to 1.49 %. There were 13 deaths among 4,912 (0.26 %) class A patients, 55 deaths among 4,124 (1.33 %) class B patients and 15 deaths among 346 (4.34 %) class C patients. Mortality in classes A, B and C was significantly different from each of the other two classes (P < 0.05, χ(2)). This systematic review confirms that OS-MRS stratifies the mortality risk in the three-risk classification subgroups of patients. The OS-MRS can be used for pre-operative identification of high-risk patients undergoing primary Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery.

  13. Vertebral fracture risk (VFR) score for fracture prediction in postmenopausal Women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lillholm, Martin; Ghosh, A.; Pettersen, P. C.

    2011-01-01

    Early prognosis of osteoporosis risk is not only important to individual patients but is also a key factor when screening for osteoporosis drug trial populations. We present an osteoporosis fracture risk score based on vertebral heights. The score separated individuals who sustained fractures (by...

  14. Polygenic risk scores for smoking: Predictors for alcohol and cannabis use?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vink, J.M.; Hottenga, J.J.; Geus, E.J.C. de; Willemsen, G.; Neale, M.C.; Furberg, H.; Boomsma, D.I.

    2014-01-01

    Background and Aims A strong correlation exists between smoking and the use of alcohol and cannabis. This paper uses polygenic risk scores to explore the possibility of overlapping genetic factors. Those scores reflect a combined effect of selected risk alleles for smoking. Methods Summary-level P-v

  15. Polygenic risk scores for smoking: Predictors for alcohol and cannabis use?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vink, J.M.; Hottenga, J.J.; Geus, E.J.C. de; Willemsen, G.; Neale, M.C.; Furberg, H.; Boomsma, D.I.

    2014-01-01

    Background and Aims A strong correlation exists between smoking and the use of alcohol and cannabis. This paper uses polygenic risk scores to explore the possibility of overlapping genetic factors. Those scores reflect a combined effect of selected risk alleles for smoking. Methods Summary-level

  16. Feasibility and reliability of a newly developed antenatal risk score card in routine care

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veen, M.J.; Birnie, E.; Poeran, J.; Torij, H.W.; Steegers, E.A.P.; Bonsel, G.J.

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: to study in routine care the feasibility and inter-rater reliability of the Rotterdam Reproductive Risk Reduction risk score card (R4U), a new semi-quantitative score card for use during the antenatal booking visit. The R4U covers clinical and non-clinical psychosocial factors and ident

  17. Diet scores and cardio-metabolic risk factors among Guatemalan young adults

    OpenAIRE

    2008-01-01

    We assessed the association of four diet quality scores with multiple cardio-metabolic outcomes among Guatemalan young adults experiencing the nutrition transition. We obtained cross-sectional dietary, demographic, anthropometric and cardio-metabolic risk factor data from 1220 Guatemalan adults (mean age 32·7 (SD 5·8) years) in 2002–4, and computed a Recommended Food Score (RFS), Not Recommended Food Score (NRFS), Food Variety Score (FVS) and the Dietary Quality Index-International (DQI-I). A...

  18. A risk prediction score for invasive mold disease in patients with hematological malignancies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Stanzani

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: A risk score for invasive mold disease (IMD in patients with hematological malignancies could facilitate patient screening and improve the targeted use of antifungal prophylaxis. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 1,709 hospital admissions of 840 patients with hematological malignancies (2005-2008 to collect data on 17 epidemiological and treatment-related risk factors for IMD. Multivariate regression was used to develop a weighted risk score based on independent risk factors associated with proven or probable IMD, which was prospectively validated during 1,746 hospital admissions of 855 patients from 2009-2012. RESULTS: Of the 17 candidate variables analyzed, 11 correlated with IMD by univariate analysis, but only 4 risk factors (neutropenia, lymphocytopenia or lymphocyte dysfunction in allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant recipients, malignancy status, and prior IMD were retained in the final multivariate model, resulting in a weighted risk score 0-13. A risk score of 5% of IMD, with a negative predictive value (NPV of 0.99, (95% CI 0.98-0.99. During 2009-2012, patients with a calculated risk score at admission of 6 (0.9% vs. 10.6%, P <0.001. CONCLUSION: An objective, weighted risk score for IMD can accurately discriminate patients with hematological malignancies at low risk for developing mold disease, and could possibly facilitate "screening-out" of low risk patients less likely to benefit from intensive diagnostic monitoring or mold-directed antifungal prophylaxis.

  19. Role of disease risk scores in comparative effectiveness research with emerging therapies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glynn, Robert J; Gagne, Joshua J; Schneeweiss, Sebastian

    2012-01-01

    Background Usefulness of propensity scores and regression models to balance potential confounders at treatment initiation may be limited for newly introduced therapies with evolving use patterns. Objectives To consider settings in which the disease risk score has theoretical advantages as a balancing score in comparative effectiveness research, because of stability of disease risk and the availability of ample historical data on outcomes in people treated before introduction of the new therapy. Methods We review the indications for and balancing properties of disease risk scores in the setting of evolving therapies, and discuss alternative approaches for estimation. We illustrate development of a disease risk score in the context of the introduction of atorvastatin and the use of high-dose statin therapy beginning in 1997, based on data from 5,668 older survivors of myocardial infarction who filled a statin prescription within 30 days after discharge from 1995 until 2004. Theoretical considerations suggested development of a disease risk score among non-users of atorvastatin and high-dose statins during the period 1995–1997. Results Observed risk of events increased from 11% to 35% across quintiles of the disease risk score which had a C-statistic of 0.71. The score allowed control of many potential confounders even during early follow-up with few study endpoints. Conclusions Balancing on a disease risk score offers an attractive alternative to a propensity score in some settings such as newly marketed drugs and provides an important axis for evaluation of potential effect modification. Joint consideration of propensity and disease risk scores may be valuable. PMID:22552989

  20. A genetic risk score combining ten psoriasis risk loci improves disease prediction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haoyan Chen

    Full Text Available Psoriasis is a chronic, immune-mediated skin disease affecting 2-3% of Caucasians. Recent genetic association studies have identified multiple psoriasis risk loci; however, most of these loci contribute only modestly to disease risk. In this study, we investigated whether a genetic risk score (GRS combining multiple loci could improve psoriasis prediction. Two approaches were used: a simple risk alleles count (cGRS and a weighted (wGRS approach. Ten psoriasis risk SNPs were genotyped in 2815 case-control samples and 858 family samples. We found that the total number of risk alleles in the cases was significantly higher than in controls, mean 13.16 (SD 1.7 versus 12.09 (SD 1.8, p = 4.577×10(-40. The wGRS captured considerably more risk than any SNP considered alone, with a psoriasis OR for high-low wGRS quartiles of 10.55 (95% CI 7.63-14.57, p = 2.010×10(-65. To compare the discriminatory ability of the GRS models, receiver operating characteristic curves were used to calculate the area under the curve (AUC. The AUC for wGRS was significantly greater than for cGRS (72.0% versus 66.5%, p = 2.13×10(-8. Additionally, the AUC for HLA-C alone (rs10484554 was equivalent to the AUC for all nine other risk loci combined (66.2% versus 63.8%, p = 0.18, highlighting the dominance of HLA-C as a risk locus. Logistic regression revealed that the wGRS was significantly associated with two subphenotypes of psoriasis, age of onset (p = 4.91×10(-6 and family history (p = 0.020. Using a liability threshold model, we estimated that the 10 risk loci account for only 11.6% of the genetic variance in psoriasis. In summary, we found that a GRS combining 10 psoriasis risk loci captured significantly more risk than any individual SNP and was associated with early onset of disease and a positive family history. Notably, only a small fraction of psoriasis heritability is captured by the common risk variants identified to date.

  1. [Cardiac transplantation; results after 5 years].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loisance, D; Mazzucotelli, J P; Benvenuti, C; Le Besnerais, P; Mourtada, A; Aptecar, E; Pouillard, F; Deleuze, P H; Hillion, M L; Cachera, J P

    1995-09-01

    After cardiac transplantation, long-term results were assessed in a group of 46 patients who survived more than 5 years after surgery. They were the survivors (50%) of a group of 92 patients who underwent transplantation before January 1990. On January 1995, mean follow-up was 82 +/- 14 months. Quality of life was estimated satisfactory (mean score 8.4 +/- 2); 60% of the patients were active; 89% were class NYHA I or II. Nevertheless, several problems have been identified: rise in body weight for all, over 10 kg in 31%; hypertension, renal failure, considered to be severe (serum creatinine > 250 micrograms/l) in 26%, diabetes in 13%, osteoarthropathy in 33%, cancer in 6%, and, above all, chronic alteration of the coronary arterial bed in 53% of the patients. These problems reflect the immunological conflict and complications of immuno-suppression.

  2. The comparison of cardiovascular risk scores using two methods of substituting missing risk factor data in patient medical records

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Dalton

    2011-07-01

    Conclusions A simple method of substituting missing risk factor data can produce reliable estimates of CVD risk scores. Targeted screening for high CVD risk, using pre-existing electronic medical record data, does not require multiple imputation methods in risk estimation.

  3. Risk score for prediction of 10 year dementia risk in individuals with type 2 diabetes: a cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exalto, Lieza G; Biessels, Geert Jan; Karter, Andrew J; Huang, Elbert S; Katon, Wayne J; Minkoff, Jerome R; Whitmer, Rachel A

    2013-11-01

    Although patients with type 2 diabetes are twice as likely to develop dementia as those without this disease, prediction of who has the highest future risk is difficult. We therefore created and validated a practical summary risk score that can be used to provide an estimate of the 10 year dementia risk for individuals with type 2 diabetes. Using data from two longitudinal cohorts of patients with type 2 diabetes (aged ≥60 years) with 10 years of follow-up, we created (n=29,961) and validated (n=2413) the risk score. We built our prediction model by evaluating 45 candidate predictors using Cox proportional hazard models and developed a point system for the risk score based on the size of the predictor's β coefficient. Model prediction was tested by discrimination and calibration methods. Dementia risk per sum score was calculated with Kaplan-Meier estimates. Microvascular disease, diabetic foot, cerebrovascular disease, cardiovascular disease, acute metabolic events, depression, age, and education were most strongly predictive of dementia and constituted the risk score (C statistic 0·736 for creation cohort and 0·746 for validation cohort). The dementia risk was 5·3% (95% CI 4·2-6·3) for the lowest score (-1) and 73·3% (64·8-81·8) for the highest (12-19) sum scores. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first risk score for the prediction of 10 year dementia risk in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. The risk score can be used to increase vigilance for cognitive deterioration and for selection of high-risk patients for participation in clinical trials. Kaiser Permanente Community Benefit, National Institute of Health, Utrecht University, ZonMw, and Fulbright. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Adding multiple risk factors improves Framingham coronary heart disease risk scores

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hu G

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Guizhou Hu,1 Martin Root,2 Ashlee W Duncan1 1BioSignia, Inc., Durham, NC, USA; 2Department of Nutrition and Health Care Management, Appalachian State University, Boone, NC, USA Purpose: Since the introduction of the Framingham Risk Score (FRS, numerous versions of coronary heart disease (CHD prediction models have claimed improvement over the FRS. Tzoulaki et al challenged the validity of these claims by illustrating methodology deficiencies among the studies. However, the question remains: Is it possible to create a new CHD model that is better than FRS while overcoming the noted deficiencies? To address this, a new CHD prediction model was developed by integrating additional risk factors, using a novel modeling process. Methods: Using the National Health Nutritional Examination Survey III data set with CHD-specific mortality outcomes and the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities data set with CHD incidence outcomes, two FRSs (FRSv1 from 1998 and FRSv2 from National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III, along with an additional risk score in which the high density lipoprotein (HDL component of FRSv1 was ignored (FRSHDL, were compared with a new CHD model (NEW-CHD. This new model contains seven elements: the original Framingham equation, FRSv1, and six additional risk factors. Discrimination, calibration, and reclassification improvements all were assessed among models. Results: Discrimination was improved for NEW-CHD in both cohorts when compared with FRSv1 and FRSv2 (P<0.05 and was similar in magnitude to the improvement of FRSv1 over FRSHDL. NEW-CHD had a similar calibration to FRSv2 and was improved over FRSv1. Net reclassification for NEW-CHD was substantially improved over both FRSv1 and FRSv2, for both cohorts, and was similar in magnitude to the improvement of FRSv1 over FRSHDL. Conclusion: While overcoming several methodology deficiencies reported by earlier authors, the NEW-CHD model improved CHD risk assessment when

  5. Cardiovascular disease risk score prediction models for women and its applicability to Asians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goh, Louise Gh; Dhaliwal, Satvinder S; Welborn, Timothy A; Thompson, Peter L; Maycock, Bruce R; Kerr, Deborah A; Lee, Andy H; Bertolatti, Dean; Clark, Karin M; Naheed, Rakhshanda; Coorey, Ranil; Della, Phillip R

    2014-01-01

    Although elevated cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors are associated with a higher risk of developing heart conditions across all ethnic groups, variations exist between groups in the distribution and association of risk factors, and also risk levels. This study assessed the 10-year predicted risk in a multiethnic cohort of women and compared the differences in risk between Asian and Caucasian women. Information on demographics, medical conditions and treatment, smoking behavior, dietary behavior, and exercise patterns were collected. Physical measurements were also taken. The 10-year risk was calculated using the Framingham model, SCORE (Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation) risk chart for low risk and high risk regions, the general CVD, and simplified general CVD risk score models in 4,354 females aged 20-69 years with no heart disease, diabetes, or stroke at baseline from the third Australian Risk Factor Prevalence Study. Country of birth was used as a surrogate for ethnicity. Nonparametric statistics were used to compare risk levels between ethnic groups. Asian women generally had lower risk of CVD when compared to Caucasian women. The 10-year predicted risk was, however, similar between Asian and Australian women, for some models. These findings were consistent with Australian CVD prevalence. In summary, ethnicity needs to be incorporated into CVD risk assessment. Australian standards used to quantify risk and treat women could be applied to Asians in the interim. The SCORE risk chart for low-risk regions and Framingham risk score model for incidence are recommended. The inclusion of other relevant risk variables such as obesity, poor diet/nutrition, and low levels of physical activity may improve risk estimation.

  6. A weighted genetic risk score using all known susceptibility variants to estimate rheumatoid arthritis risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yarwood, Annie; Han, Buhm; Raychaudhuri, Soumya; Bowes, John; Lunt, Mark; Pappas, Dimitrios A; Kremer, Joel; Greenberg, Jeffrey D; Plenge, Robert; Worthington, Jane; Barton, Anne; Eyre, Steve

    2015-01-01

    Background There is currently great interest in the incorporation of genetic susceptibility loci into screening models to identify individuals at high risk of disease. Here, we present the first risk prediction model including all 46 known genetic loci associated with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Methods A weighted genetic risk score (wGRS) was created using 45 RA non-human leucocyte antigen (HLA) susceptibility loci, imputed amino acids at HLA-DRB1 (11, 71 and 74), HLA-DPB1 (position 9) HLA-B (position 9) and gender. The wGRS was tested in 11 366 RA cases and 15 489 healthy controls. The risk of developing RA was estimated using logistic regression by dividing the wGRS into quintiles. The ability of the wGRS to discriminate between cases and controls was assessed by receiver operator characteristic analysis and discrimination improvement tests. Results Individuals in the highest risk group showed significantly increased odds of developing anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide-positive RA compared to the lowest risk group (OR 27.13, 95% CI 23.70 to 31.05). The wGRS was validated in an independent cohort that showed similar results (area under the curve 0.78, OR 18.00, 95% CI 13.67 to 23.71). Comparison of the full wGRS with a wGRS in which HLA amino acids were replaced by a HLA tag single-nucleotide polymorphism showed a significant loss of sensitivity and specificity. Conclusions Our study suggests that in RA, even when using all known genetic susceptibility variants, prediction performance remains modest; while this is insufficiently accurate for general population screening, it may prove of more use in targeted studies. Our study has also highlighted the importance of including HLA variation in risk prediction models. PMID:24092415

  7. High lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease vs low 10-year Framingham risk score in HIV-infected subjects under ART in Spain: the Coronator study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C Miralles

    2012-11-01

    associated with an increased lifetime risk were older age, non-Spanish origin and longer time on ART. Adjusted OR for patients on ART longer than 10 years (vs<5 years was 2.2 [95% CI 1.13–4.34]. No relationship was found with current or nadir CD4 lymphocyte counts, CDC stage C, HCV confection or type of ART. Conclusions: There are significant disparities between the low 10y CVD risk estimated with FRS and the elevated lifetime risk in HIV patients on ART. Prolonged ART is associated with an increased CVD lifetime risk.

  8. Correlation between Timi Risk Score and Clinical Outcome in Patients with Unstable Angina Pectoris

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Savovic Zorica

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Given Taking that the TIMI score is a major predictor of MACE, this study aimed to determine the value of the TIMI risk score in predicting poor outcomes (death, myocardial infarction, recurrent pain in patients presenting with unstable angina pectoris in short-term observation. A total of 107 patients with APns were examined at the Clinical Centre Kragujevac and were included in the investigation. The TIMI score was determined on the first day of hospitalization. During hospitalization, the following factors were also observed: troponin, ECG evolution, further therapy (pharmacologic therapy and/or emergency PCI or CABG, age, hypertension and hyperlipidaemia. The low-risk group (TIMI 0 - 2 included 30.8% of patients, whereas 47.6% of patients were in the intermediate-risk group (TIMI 3 - 4, and 21.5% of patients were in the high-risk group (TIMI 5 - 7. Good outcomes (without adverse event and poor outcomes (death, myocardial infarction, and recurring chest pain were dependent on the TIMI risk score. The increase in TIMI risk score per one unit increased the risk of a poor outcome by 54%. Troponin and TIMI risk score were positively correlated. Our results suggest that the TIMI risk score may be a reliable predictor of a poor outcome (MACE during the short-term observation of patients with APns. Moreover, patients identified as high-risk benefit from early invasive PCI, enoxaparin and Gp IIb/IIIa inhibitors. Th us, routine use of the TIMI risk score at admission may reduce the number of patients not recognized as high-risk.

  9. Midregional Proadrenomedullin Improves Risk Stratification beyond Surgical Risk Scores in Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Csordas

    Full Text Available Conventional surgical risk scores lack accuracy in risk stratification of patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR. Elevated levels of midregional proadrenomedullin (MR-proADM levels are associated with adverse outcome not only in patients with manifest chronic disease states, but also in the general population.We investigated the predictive value of MR-proADM for mortality in an unselected contemporary TAVR population.We prospectively included 153 patients suffering from severe aortic stenosis who underwent TAVR from September 2013 to August 2014. This population was compared to an external validation cohort of 205 patients with severe aortic stenosis undergoing TAVR. The primary endpoint was all cause mortality.During a median follow-up of 258 days, 17 out of 153 patients who underwent TAVR died (11%. Patients with MR-proADM levels above the 75th percentile (≥ 1.3 nmol/l had higher mortality (31% vs. 4%, HR 8.9, 95% CI 3.0-26.0, P 6.8 only showed a trend towards higher mortality (18% vs. 9%, HR 2.1, 95% CI 0.8-5.6, P = 0.13. The Harrell's C-statistic was 0.58 (95% CI 0.45-0.82 for the EuroSCORE II, and consideration of baseline MR-proADM levels significantly improved discrimination (AUC = 0.84, 95% CI 0.71-0.92, P = 0.01. In bivariate analysis adjusted for EuroSCORE II, MR-proADM levels ≥1.3 nmol/l persisted as an independent predictor of mortality (HR 9.9, 95% CI (3.1-31.3, P <0.01 and improved the model's net reclassification index (0.89, 95% CI (0.28-1.59. These results were confirmed in the independent validation cohort.Our study identified MR-proADM as a novel predictor of mortality in patients undergoing TAVR. In the future, MR-proADM should be added to the commonly used EuroSCORE II for better risk stratification of patients suffering from severe aortic stenosis.

  10. Beyond the SYNTAX score--advantages and limitations of other risk assessment systems in left main percutaneous coronary intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capodanno, Davide

    2013-01-01

    Risk stratification is an emerging topic in the modern management of patients with left main disease referred for percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Recent years have witnessed an explosive multiplication of risk models for prognostic stratification in complex PCI. Many of this models deal with modification of the angiographic SYNTAX score, or seek to overcome its known pitfalls and limitations, including lack of clinical and functional information, inter- and intra-observer variabilities, and poor calibration. Risk scoring systems beyond the SYNTAX score may be classified into angiographic (residual SYNTAX score, coronary artery bypass grafting SYNTAX score), clinical (EuroSCORE I and II, ACEF score and modified ACEF scores), combined clinical and angiographic (Global Risk Classification, Clinical SYNTAX score, logistic Clinical SYNTAX score, SYNTAX score II) and functional (Functional SYNTAX score). This article reviews current concepts in risk modeling and explores the advantages and limitations of the alternatives to the SYNTAX score in patients undergoing left main PCI. 

  11. A Risk Score for Fluconazole Failure among Patients with Candidemia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostrosky-Zeichner, Luis; Harrington, Rachel; Azie, Nkechi; Yang, Hongbo; Li, Nanxin; Zhao, Jing; Koo, Valerie; Wu, Eric Q

    2017-05-01

    This study aimed to develop a prediction model to identify patients with candidemia who were at high risk of failing fluconazole treatment. Adult patients in the United States with candidemia who received fluconazole during hospitalization were selected from the Cerner Health Facts Hospital Database (04/2004 to 03/2013). Fluconazole failure was defined as switching/adding another antifungal, positive Candida culture ≥10 days after fluconazole initiation, or death during hospitalization. Patients were randomized into modeling and validation samples. Using the modeling sample, a regression analysis of least absolute shrinkage and selection operator was used to select risk predictors of fluconazole failure (demographics, Candida species, initiation of fluconazole before positive culture and after admission, and comorbidities, procedures, and treatments during the 6 months before admission and fluconazole initiation). The prediction model was evaluated using the validation sample. We found that of 987 identified patients (average age of 61 years, 51% male, 72% Caucasian), 49% failed and 51% did not fail fluconazole treatment. Of those who failed, 70% switched or added another antifungal, 21% had a second positive Candida test, and 42% died during hospitalization. Nine risk factors were included in the prediction model: days to start fluconazole after admission, Candida glabrata or Candida krusei infection, hematological malignancy, venous thromboembolism (VTE), enteral nutrition, use of nonoperative intubation/irrigation, and other antifungal use. All but VTE were associated with a higher risk of failure. The model's c-statistic was 0.65, with a Hosmer-Lemeshow test P value of 0.23. In summary, this prediction model identified patients with a high risk of fluconazole failure, illustrating the potential value and feasibility of personalizing candidemia treatment. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

  12. Development and Evaluation of a Genetic Risk Score for Obesity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belsky, Daniel W.; Moffitt, Terrie E.; Sugden, Karen; Williams, Benjamin; Houts, Renate; McCarthy, Jeanette; Caspi, Avshalom

    2013-01-01

    Background Results from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) represent a potential resource for etiological and treatment research. GWAS of obesity-related phenotypes have been especially successful. To translate this success into a research tool, we developed and tested a “genetic risk score” (GRS) that summarizes an individual’s genetic predisposition to obesity. Methods Different GWAS of obesity-related phenotypes report different sets of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) as the best genomic markers of obesity risk. Therefore, we applied a 3-stage approach that pooled results from multiple GWAS to select SNPs to include in our GRS: The 3 stages are (1) Extraction. SNPs with evidence of association are compiled from published GWAS; (2) Clustering. SNPs are grouped according to patterns of linkage disequilibrium; (3) Selection. Tag SNPs are selected from clusters that meet specific criteria. We applied this 3-stage approach to results from 16 GWAS of obesity-related phenotypes in European-descent samples to create a GRS. We then tested the GRS in the Atherosclerosis Risk in the Communities (ARIC) Study cohort (N=10,745, 55% female, 77% white, 23% African American). Results Our 32-locus GRS was a statistically significant predictor of body mass index (BMI) and obesity among ARIC whites (for BMI, r=0.13, p<1×10−30; for obesity, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC)=0.57 [95% CI 0.55–0.58]). The GRS improved prediction of obesity (as measured by delta-AUC and integrated discrimination index) when added to models that included demographic and geographic information. FTO- and MC4R-linked SNPs, and a non-genetic risk assessment consisting of a socioeconomic index (p<0.01 for all comparisons). The GRS also predicted increased mortality risk over 17 years of follow-up. The GRS performed less well among African Americans. Conclusions The obesity GRS derived using our 3-stage approach is not useful for clinical risk prediction, but

  13. Risk prediction is improved by adding markers of subclinical organ damage to SCORE

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sehestedt, Thomas; Jeppesen, Jørgen Lykke; Hansen, Tine W;

    2010-01-01

    .8-5.9)], PWV > 12 m/s [HR 1.9 (1.1-3.3) for SCORE > or = 5% and 7.3 (3.2-16.1) for SCORE or = 5% as well as subclinical organ damage, increased specificity of risk prediction from 75 to 81% (P sensitivity from 72 to 65% (P = 0.......4). Broaden primary prevention from subjects with SCORE > or = 5% to include subjects with 1% organ damage increased sensitivity from 72 to 89% (P = 0.006), but reduced specificity from 75 to 57% (P ....07). CONCLUSION: Subclinical organ damage predicted cardiovascular death independently of SCORE and the combination may improve risk prediction....

  14. Association of a Dietary Score with Incident Type 2 Diabetes: The Dietary-Based Diabetes-Risk Score (DDS.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ligia J Dominguez

    Full Text Available Strong evidence supports that dietary modifications may decrease incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM. Numerous diabetes risk models/scores have been developed, but most do not rely specifically on dietary variables or do not fully capture the overall dietary pattern. We prospectively assessed the association of a dietary-based diabetes-risk score (DDS, which integrates optimal food patterns, with the risk of developing T2DM in the SUN ("Seguimiento Universidad de Navarra" longitudinal study.We assessed 17,292 participants initially free of diabetes, followed-up for a mean of 9.2 years. A validated 136-item FFQ was administered at baseline. Taking into account previous literature, the DDS positively weighted vegetables, fruit, whole cereals, nuts, coffee, low-fat dairy, fiber, PUFA, and alcohol in moderate amounts; while it negatively weighted red meat, processed meats and sugar-sweetened beverages. Energy-adjusted quintiles of each item (with exception of moderate alcohol consumption that received either 0 or 5 points were used to build the DDS (maximum: 60 points. Incident T2DM was confirmed through additional detailed questionnaires and review of medical records of participants. We used Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for socio-demographic and anthropometric parameters, health-related habits, and clinical variables to estimate hazard ratios (HR of T2DM.We observed 143 T2DM confirmed cases during follow-up. Better baseline conformity with the DDS was associated with lower incidence of T2DM (multivariable-adjusted HR for intermediate (25-39 points vs. low (11-24 category 0.43 [95% confidence interval (CI 0.21, 0.89]; and for high (40-60 vs. low category 0.32 [95% CI: 0.14, 0.69]; p for linear trend: 0.019.The DDS, a simple score exclusively based on dietary components, showed a strong inverse association with incident T2DM. This score may be applicable in clinical practice to improve dietary habits of subjects at high risk of T2DM

  15. Comparison of risk scoring systems for patients presenting with upper gastrointestinal bleeding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stanley, Adrian J; Laine, Loren; Dalton, Harry R

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To compare the predictive accuracy and clinical utility of five risk scoring systems in the assessment of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. DESIGN: International multicentre prospective study. SETTING: Six large hospitals in Europe, North America, Asia, and Oceania....... RESULTS: The Glasgow Blatchford score was best (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) 0.86) at predicting intervention or death compared with the full Rockall score (0.70), PNED score (0.69), admission Rockall score (0.66, and AIMS65 score (0.68) (all P... thresholds of ≥4 for PNED, ≥2 for AIMS65, ≥4 for admission Rockall, and ≥5 for full Rockall were optimal at predicting death, with sensitivities of 65.8-78.6% and specificities of 65.0-65.3%. No score was helpful at predicting rebleeding or length of stay. CONCLUSIONS: The Glasgow Blatchford score has high...

  16. Cardiovascular risk assessment in rheumatoid arthritis: impact of the EULAR recommendations on a national calibrated score risk index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosales-Alexander, J L; Salvatierra, J; Llorca, J; Magro-Checa, C; González-Gay, M A; Cantero-Hinojosa, J; Raya-Álvarez, E

    2014-01-01

    To evaluate the impact of the application of the EULAR task force recommendations in the cardiovascular (CV) risk assessment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients according to a national calibrated SCORE. Two hundred and one consecutive RA patients seen at the rheumatology outpatient clinics of the University Hospital 'San Cecilio', Granada, Southern Spain, were studied. Information on demographic, classic CV risk factors, history of CV events and disease clinical features were obtained. Both the systematic coronary risk evaluation (SCORE) risk index and the modified SCORE (mSCORE) following the EULAR recommendations were performed. Based on the classic CV risk factors the mean ± standard deviation SCORE was 2.2 ± 2.6 (median 2). Twenty-two (11%) patients were above the threshold of high risk for the Spanish population. Following the EULAR recommendations 52 of the 124 patients (41.93%) initially classified as having intermediate risk were reclassified as having high CV risk. Therefore, the mean mSCORE was 3.3 ± 4 (median 3) and, due to this, 74 (36.8%) patients were above the threshold of high CV risk for the Spanish population. As expected, patients who had experienced CV events were older, had more CV risk factors and higher mSCORE than those without CV events. These observations support the claim that the mSCORE should be specifically adapted to the population to be assessed. However, the use of additional tools should be considered in an attempt to fully identify high-risk RA patients.

  17. Dietary Intake Is Related to Multifactor Cardiovascular Risk Score in Obese Boys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumacher, Tracy L.; Burrows, Tracy L.; Cliff, Dylan P.; Jones, Rachel A.; Okely, Anthony D.; Baur, Louise A.; Morgan, Philip J.; Callister, Robin; Boggess, May M.; Collins, Clare E.

    2014-01-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) originates in childhood and early identification of risk factors provides an early intervention opportunity. The aim was to identify children at higher risk using a CVD risk score, developed from factors known to cluster in childhood. Risk was scored as very high (≥97.5th centile), high (≥95th), moderate (≥90th) or threshold (<90th) using normal pediatric reference ranges for 10 common biomedical risk factors. These were summed in a multifactor CVD risk score and applied to a sample of 285 observations from 136 overweight Australian children (41% male, aged 7–12 years). Strength of associations between CVD risk score and individual biomedical and dietary variables were assessed using univariate logistic regression. High waist circumference (Odds Ratio: 5.48 [95% CI: 2.60–11.55]), body mass index (OR: 3.22 [1.98–5.26]), serum insulin (OR: 3.37 [2.56–4.42]) and triglycerides (OR: 3.02 [2.22–4.12]) were all significantly related to CVD risk score. High intakes of total fat (OR: 4.44 [1.19–16.60]), sugar (OR: 2.82 [1.54–5.15]) and carbohydrate (OR 1.75 [1.11–2.77]) were significantly related to CVD risk score in boys only. This multifactor CVD risk score could be a useful tool for researchers to identify elevated risk in children. Further research is warranted to examine sex-specific dietary factors related to CVD risk in children. PMID:27429277

  18. Dietary Intake Is Related to Multifactor Cardiovascular Risk Score in Obese Boys

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tracy L. Schumacher

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Cardiovascular disease (CVD originates in childhood and early identification of risk factors provides an early intervention opportunity. The aim was to identify children at higher risk using a CVD risk score, developed from factors known to cluster in childhood. Risk was scored as very high (≥97.5th centile, high (≥95th, moderate (≥90th or threshold (<90th using normal pediatric reference ranges for 10 common biomedical risk factors. These were summed in a multifactor CVD risk score and applied to a sample of 285 observations from 136 overweight Australian children (41% male, aged 7–12 years. Strength of associations between CVD risk score and individual biomedical and dietary variables were assessed using univariate logistic regression. High waist circumference (Odds Ratio: 5.48 [95% CI: 2.60–11.55], body mass index (OR: 3.22 [1.98–5.26], serum insulin (OR: 3.37 [2.56–4.42] and triglycerides (OR: 3.02 [2.22–4.12] were all significantly related to CVD risk score. High intakes of total fat (OR: 4.44 [1.19–16.60], sugar (OR: 2.82 [1.54–5.15] and carbohydrate (OR 1.75 [1.11–2.77] were significantly related to CVD risk score in boys only. This multifactor CVD risk score could be a useful tool for researchers to identify elevated risk in children. Further research is warranted to examine sex-specific dietary factors related to CVD risk in children.

  19. Regression coefficient-based scoring system should be used to assign weights to the risk index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehta, Hemalkumar B; Mehta, Vinay; Girman, Cynthia J; Adhikari, Deepak; Johnson, Michael L

    2016-11-01

    Some previously developed risk scores contained a mathematical error in their construction: risk ratios were added to derive weights to construct a summary risk score. This study demonstrates the mathematical error and derived different versions of the Charlson comorbidity score (CCS) using regression coefficient-based and risk ratio-based scoring systems to further demonstrate the effects of incorrect weighting on performance in predicting mortality. This retrospective cohort study included elderly people from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Cox proportional hazards regression models were constructed for time to 1-year mortality. Weights were assigned to 17 comorbidities using regression coefficient-based and risk ratio-based scoring systems. Different versions of CCS were compared using Akaike information criteria (AIC), McFadden's adjusted R(2), and net reclassification improvement (NRI). Regression coefficient-based models (Beta, Beta10/integer, Beta/Schneeweiss, Beta/Sullivan) had lower AIC and higher R(2) compared to risk ratio-based models (HR/Charlson, HR/Johnson). Regression coefficient-based CCS reclassified more number of people into the correct strata (NRI range, 9.02-10.04) compared to risk ratio-based CCS (NRI range, 8.14-8.22). Previously developed risk scores contained an error in their construction adding ratios instead of multiplying them. Furthermore, as demonstrated here, adding ratios fail to even work adequately from a practical standpoint. CCS derived using regression coefficients performed slightly better than in fitting the data compared to risk ratio-based scoring systems. Researchers should use a regression coefficient-based scoring system to develop a risk index, which is theoretically correct. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Assessment of cardiovascular risk in rheumatoid arthritis: impact of the new EULAR recommendations on the score cardiovascular risk index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-Vaquero, Carmen; Robustillo, Montserrat; Narváez, Javier; Rodríguez-Moreno, Jesús; González-Juanatey, Carlos; Llorca, Javier; Nolla, Joan Miquel; González-Gay, Miguel Angel

    2012-01-01

    To assess the impact of the application of the European League against Rheumatism (EULAR) task force recommendations in the cardiovascular (CV) risk of a series of Spanish patients diagnosed with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Two hundred consecutive RA patients seen at the rheumatology outpatient clinics of Bellvitge Hospital, Barcelona, were studied. Information on clinical features of the disease, classic CV risk factors, and history of CV events was assessed. Both the systematic coronary risk evaluation (SCORE) CV risk index and the modified SCORE (mSCORE) according to the last EULAR recommendations were calculated. Based on the classic CV risk factors, the mean ± standard deviation SCORE was 2.1 ± 2.3% (median, 2; interquartile range [IQR], 1-3). Twenty-three (11%) patients were above the threshold of high CV risk for the Spanish population (≥5%). Following the EULAR recommendations, a change in the score was required in 119 (59%) patients. Therefore, the mean mSCORE was 2.7 ± 2.9% (median, 2; IQR, 1-3) and, due to this, 28 (14%) patients were above the threshold of high CV risk. Nine (5%) had at least one ischemic CV event. Patients with CV events were older and had more CV risk factors and higher SCORE and mSCORE than those without CV events. Although a large proportion of patients from this series fulfilled the criteria for the application of the EULAR recommendations, the final impact on the calculated CV risk was low and clinically significant in only a few patients. However, an association between the mSCORE and the presence of ischemic CV events was observed.

  1. Comparison of risk scoring systems for patients presenting with upper gastrointestinal bleeding: international multicentre prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanley, Adrian J; Laine, Loren; Dalton, Harry R; Ngu, Jing H; Schultz, Michael; Abazi, Roseta; Zakko, Liam; Thornton, Susan; Wilkinson, Kelly; Khor, Cristopher J L; Murray, Iain A; Laursen, Stig B

    2017-01-04

     To compare the predictive accuracy and clinical utility of five risk scoring systems in the assessment of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.  International multicentre prospective study.  Six large hospitals in Europe, North America, Asia, and Oceania.  3012 consecutive patients presenting over 12 months with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.  Comparison of pre-endoscopy scores (admission Rockall, AIMS65, and Glasgow Blatchford) and post-endoscopy scores (full Rockall and PNED) for their ability to predict predefined clinical endpoints: a composite endpoint (transfusion, endoscopic treatment, interventional radiology, surgery, or 30 day mortality), endoscopic treatment, 30 day mortality, rebleeding, and length of hospital stay. Optimum score thresholds to identify low risk and high risk patients were determined.  The Glasgow Blatchford score was best (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) 0.86) at predicting intervention or death compared with the full Rockall score (0.70), PNED score (0.69), admission Rockall score (0.66, and AIMS65 score (0.68) (all P<0.001). A Glasgow Blatchford score of ≤1 was the optimum threshold to predict survival without intervention (sensitivity 98.6%, specificity 34.6%). The Glasgow Blatchford score was better at predicting endoscopic treatment (AUROC 0.75) than the AIMS65 (0.62) and admission Rockall scores (0.61) (both P<0.001). A Glasgow Blatchford score of ≥7 was the optimum threshold to predict endoscopic treatment (sensitivity 80%, specificity 57%). The PNED (AUROC 0.77) and AIMS65 scores (0.77) were best at predicting mortality, with both superior to admission Rockall score (0.72) and Glasgow Blatchford score (0.64; P<0.001). Score thresholds of ≥4 for PNED, ≥2 for AIMS65, ≥4 for admission Rockall, and ≥5 for full Rockall were optimal at predicting death, with sensitivities of 65.8-78.6% and specificities of 65.0-65.3%. No score was helpful at predicting rebleeding or length

  2. HIV infection does not contribute to increased cardiovascular risk as assessed by Framingham risk score

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I Ramsay

    2012-11-01

    significant predictors. The overall mean cfPWV for the HIV cohort (n=47 was 9.09±2.13 m/s compared to 11.95±2.37 m/s in the control group (n=46(p<0.01. HIV infection does not contribute to increased cardiovascular risk as assessed by Framingham risk score or carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity. This may be due to good control of traditional cardiovascular risk factors and a healthy lifestyle in this cohort.

  3. Replacement tunnelled dialysis catheters for haemodialysis access: Same site, new site, or exchange - a multivariate analysis and risk score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tapping, C R; Scott, P M; Lakshminarayan, R; Ettles, D F; Robinson, G J

    2012-10-01

    To identify variables related to complications following tunnelled dialysis catheter (TDC) replacement and stratifying the risk to reduce morbidity in patients with end-stage renal disease. One hundred and forty TDCs (Split Cath, medCOMP) were replaced in 140 patients over a 5 year period. Multiple variables were retrospectively collected and analysed to stratify the risk and to predict patients who were more likely to suffer from complications. Multivariate regression analysis was used to identify variables predictive of complications. There were six immediate complications, 42 early complications, and 37 late complications. Multivariate analysis revealed that variables significantly associated to complications were: female sex (p = 0.003; OR 2.9); previous TDC in the same anatomical position in the past (p = 0.014; OR 4.1); catheter exchange (p = 0.038; OR 3.8); haemoglobin 15 s (p = 0.002; OR 4.1); and C-reactive protein >50 mg/l (p = 0.007; OR 4.6). A high-risk score, which used the values from the multivariate analysis, predicted 100% of the immediate complications, 95% of the early complications, and 68% of the late complications. Patients can now be scored prior to TDC replacement. A patient with a high-risk score can be optimized to reduce the chance of complications. Further prospective studies to confirm that rotating the site of TDC reduces complications are warranted as this has implications for current guidelines. Copyright © 2012 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Developing a Conceptually Equivalent Type 2 Diabetes Risk Score for Indian Gujaratis in the UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Naina; Willis, Andrew; Stone, Margaret; Barber, Shaun; Gray, Laura; Davies, Melanie; Khunti, Kamlesh

    2016-01-01

    Aims. To apply and assess the suitability of a model consisting of commonly used cross-cultural translation methods to achieve a conceptually equivalent Gujarati language version of the Leicester self-assessment type 2 diabetes risk score. Methods. Implementation of the model involved multiple stages, including pretesting of the translated risk score by conducting semistructured interviews with a purposive sample of volunteers. Interviews were conducted on an iterative basis to enable findings to inform translation revisions and to elicit volunteers' ability to self-complete and understand the risk score. Results. The pretest stage was an essential component involving recruitment of a diverse sample of 18 Gujarati volunteers, many of whom gave detailed suggestions for improving the instructions for the calculation of the risk score and BMI table. Volunteers found the standard and level of Gujarati accessible and helpful in understanding the concept of risk, although many of the volunteers struggled to calculate their BMI. Conclusions. This is the first time that a multicomponent translation model has been applied to the translation of a type 2 diabetes risk score into another language. This project provides an invaluable opportunity to share learning about the transferability of this model for translation of self-completed risk scores in other health conditions.

  5. Developing a Conceptually Equivalent Type 2 Diabetes Risk Score for Indian Gujaratis in the UK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naina Patel

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims. To apply and assess the suitability of a model consisting of commonly used cross-cultural translation methods to achieve a conceptually equivalent Gujarati language version of the Leicester self-assessment type 2 diabetes risk score. Methods. Implementation of the model involved multiple stages, including pretesting of the translated risk score by conducting semistructured interviews with a purposive sample of volunteers. Interviews were conducted on an iterative basis to enable findings to inform translation revisions and to elicit volunteers’ ability to self-complete and understand the risk score. Results. The pretest stage was an essential component involving recruitment of a diverse sample of 18 Gujarati volunteers, many of whom gave detailed suggestions for improving the instructions for the calculation of the risk score and BMI table. Volunteers found the standard and level of Gujarati accessible and helpful in understanding the concept of risk, although many of the volunteers struggled to calculate their BMI. Conclusions. This is the first time that a multicomponent translation model has been applied to the translation of a type 2 diabetes risk score into another language. This project provides an invaluable opportunity to share learning about the transferability of this model for translation of self-completed risk scores in other health conditions.

  6. A Study of Risk Factors and T- Score Variability in Romanian Women with Postmenopausal Osteoporosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodica TöRöK-Oance

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to analyse the prevalence of postmenopausal osteoporosis risk factors and to analyse the T-score variability in spine and hip according to the associated risk factors.This is a retrospective study (2003-2007 including 177 female patients with postmenopausal osteoporosis. The patients were separated in seven groups according to the number of risk factors per case. The T-score was compared between this groups using unpaired t-Student test.The most frequent risk factor was early menopause (44.63%, followed by low consumption of dairy products (37.29%, coffee consumption (25.99%, sedentary lifestyle (20.9%, smoking (19.21%, delayed menarche (15.25%, low body mass index (10.71%, nulliparity (7.91%, alcohol consumption (0.56%. The maximum number of risk factors per case was six. The T-score decreased with increasing number of risk factors. T-score differences are statistically significant when comparing cases with 6 risk factors to cases with 5 risk factors (P=0.0315 in spine; P=0.0088 in hip, 4 risk factors (P=0.0076 in spine; P=0.043 in hip, 3 risk factors (P<0.0001 in spine; P=0.0205 in hip, 2 risk factors (P=0.0012 in spine; P<0.0001 in hip, a single risk factor (P<0.001 in spine and hip and no risk factor (P=0.0075 in spine; P=0.0006 in hip.Association of several risk factors leads to decrease of T-score so being able to avoid any such factors may contribute to a better bone mineral density. This could be achieved by the education of female population regarding postmenopausal osteoporosis risk factors, followed by adopting an appropriate lifestyle and diet.

  7. Poor predictive ability of the risk chart SCORE in a Danish population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Saidj, Madina; Jørgensen, Torben; Prescott, Eva;

    2013-01-01

    In Denmark, the European risk chart Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) from the European Society of Cardiology is recommended for use in cardiovascular prevention. Nevertheless, its predictive ability in a Danish population has never been investigated. The purpose of this study was there...... was therefore to assess the predictive ability of the SCORE risk chart with regard to fatal cardiovascular risk according to the socio-demographic factors of age, sex, income and education in a Danish population.......In Denmark, the European risk chart Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) from the European Society of Cardiology is recommended for use in cardiovascular prevention. Nevertheless, its predictive ability in a Danish population has never been investigated. The purpose of this study...

  8. A Simple Risk Score for Identifying Individuals with Impaired Fasting Glucose in the Southern Chinese Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui Wang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to develop and validate a simple risk score for detecting individuals with impaired fasting glucose (IFG among the Southern Chinese population. A sample of participants aged ≥20 years and without known diabetes from the 2006–2007 Guangzhou diabetes cross-sectional survey was used to develop separate risk scores for men and women. The participants completed a self-administered structured questionnaire and underwent simple clinical measurements. The risk scores were developed by multiple logistic regression analysis. External validation was performed based on three other studies: the 2007 Zhuhai rural population-based study, the 2008–2010 Guangzhou diabetes cross-sectional study and the 2007 Tibet population-based study. Performance of the scores was measured with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and ROC c-statistic. Age, waist circumference, body mass index and family history of diabetes were included in the risk score for both men and women, with the additional factor of hypertension for men. The ROC c-statistic was 0.70 for both men and women in the derivation samples. Risk scores of ≥28 for men and ≥18 for women showed respective sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 56.6%, 71.7%, 13.0% and 96.0% for men and 68.7%, 60.2%, 11% and 96.0% for women in the derivation population. The scores performed comparably with the Zhuhai rural sample and the 2008–2010 Guangzhou urban samples but poorly in the Tibet sample. The performance of pre-existing USA, Shanghai, and Chengdu risk scores was poorer in our population than in their original study populations. The results suggest that the developed simple IFG risk scores can be generalized in Guangzhou city and nearby rural regions and may help primary health care workers to identify individuals with IFG in their practice.

  9. Prognostic value of risk score and urinary markers in idiopathic membranous nephropathy.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brand, Jan van den; Hofstra, J.M.; Wetzels, J.F.M.

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Accurate prediction of prognosis may improve management of patients with idiopathic membranous nephropathy. This study compared the Toronto Risk Score and urinary low-molecular weight proteins. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: One hundred four patients with b

  10. clinical risk index for babies (crib) ii score as a predictor of neonatal ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2011-01-01

    Jan 1, 2011 ... Among them is the scoring system Clinical Risk Index for Babies also known as CRIB II score. .... strongly with hospital neonatal mortality, the cost of ... analysis was obtained using standard procedure ... then labelled and transported to the laboratory ... labor, the babies' details – the components of CRIB.

  11. Assessing Framingham cardiovascular risk scores in subjects with diabetes and their correlation with diabetic retinopathy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deepali R Damkondwar

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim: To study the Framingham cardiovascular risk assessment scores in subjects with diabetes and their association with diabetic retinopathy in subjects with diabetes. Materials and Methods: In this population-based prospective study, subjects with diabetes were recruited (n=1248; age ≥40 years. The Framingham cardiovascular risk scores were calculated for 1248 subjects with type 2 diabetes. The scores were classified as high risk (>10%, and low risk (<10%. Results: Out of the 1248 subjects, 830 (66.5% patients had a low risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD in 10 years and 418 (33.5% had a high risk of developing CVD in 10 years. The risk of developing CVD was more in males than females (56.8% vs. 7% The prevalence of both diabetic retinopathy and sight-threatening retinopathy was more in the high-risk group (21% and 4.5%, respectively. The risk factors for developing diabetic retinopathy were similar in both the groups (low vs. high - duration of diabetes (OR 1.14 vs. 1.08, higher HbA1c (OR 1.24 vs. 1.22, presence of macro- and microalbuminuria (OR 10.17 vs. 6.12 for macro-albuminuria and use of insulin (OR 2.06 vs. 4.38. The additional risk factors in the high-risk group were presence of anemia (OR 2.65 and higher serum high density lipoprotein (HDL cholesterol (OR 1.05. Conclusion: Framingham risk scoring, a global risk assessment tool to predict the 10-year risk of developing CVD, can also predict the occurrence and type of diabetic retinopathy. Those patients with high CVD scores should be followed up more frequently and treated adequately. This also warrants good interaction between the treating physician/cardiologist and the ophthalmologist.

  12. A risk score for predicting mortality in patients with asymptomatic mild to moderate aortic stenosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holme, Ingar; Pedersen, Terje R; Boman, Kurt

    2012-01-01

    BackgroundPrognostic information for asymptomatic patients with aortic stenosis (AS) from prospective studies is scarce and there is no risk score available to assess mortality.ObjectivesTo develop an easily calculable score, from which clinicians could stratify patients into high and lower risk...... of mortality, using data from the Simvastatin and Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis (SEAS) study.MethodA search for significant prognostic factors (p...

  13. Evaluation of nosocomial infection risk using APACHE II scores in the neurological intensive care unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hai-Ying; Li, Shu-Juan; Yang, Nan; Hu, Wen-Li

    2014-08-01

    To evaluate the feasibility and accuracy of using the Acute Physiology, Age and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) scoring system for predicting the risk of nosocomial infection in the neurological intensive care unit (NICU), 216 patients transferred to NICU within 24hours of admission were retrospectively evaluated. Based on admission APACHE II scores, they were classified into three groups, with higher APACHE II scores representing higher infectious risk. The device utilization ratios and device-associated infection ratios of NICU patients were analyzed and compared with published reports on patient outcome. Statistical analysis of nosocomial infection ratios showed obvious differences between the high-risk, middle-risk and low-risk groups (pAPACHE II model in predicting the risk of nosocomial infection was 0.81, which proved to be reliable and consistent with the expectation. In addition, we found statistical differences in the duration of hospital stay (patient-days) and device utilization (device-days) between different risk groups (pAPACHE II scoring system was validated in predicting the risk of nosocomial infection, duration of patient-days and device-days, and providing accurate assessment of patients' condition, so that appropriate prevention strategies can be implemented based on admission APACHE II scores.

  14. Incidence of cardiovascular events after kidney transplantation and cardiovascular risk scores: study protocol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorenzo-Aguiar Dolores

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD is the major cause of death after renal transplantation. Not only conventional CVD risk factors, but also transplant-specific risk factors can influence the development of CVD in kidney transplant recipients. The main objective of this study will be to determine the incidence of post-transplant CVD after renal transplantation and related factors. A secondary objective will be to examine the ability of standard cardiovascular risk scores (Framingham, Regicor, SCORE, and DORICA to predict post-transplantation cardiovascular events in renal transplant recipients, and to develop a new score for predicting the risk of CVD after kidney transplantation. Methods/Design Observational prospective cohort study of all kidney transplant recipients in the A Coruña Hospital (Spain in the period 1981-2008 (2059 transplants corresponding to 1794 patients. The variables included will be: donor and recipient characteristics, chronic kidney disease-related risk factors, pre-transplant and post-transplant cardiovascular risk factors, routine biochemistry, and immunosuppressive, antihypertensive and lipid-lowering treatment. The events studied in the follow-up will be: patient and graft survival, acute rejection episodes and cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, invasive coronary artery therapy, cerebral vascular events, new-onset angina, congestive heart failure, rhythm disturbances and peripheral vascular disease. Four cardiovascular risk scores were calculated at the time of transplantation: the Framingham score, the European Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE equation, and the REGICOR (Registre Gironí del COR (Gerona Heart Registry, and DORICA (Dyslipidemia, Obesity, and Cardiovascular Risk functions. The cumulative incidence of cardiovascular events will be analyzed by competing risk survival methods. The clinical relevance of different variables will be calculated using the ARR (Absolute Risk

  15. How much does HDL cholesterol add to risk estimation? A report from the SCORE Investigators.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2009-06-01

    Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), the risk estimation system recommended by the European guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention, estimates 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease mortality based on age, sex, country of origin, systolic blood pressure, smoking status and either total cholesterol (TC) or TC\\/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) ratio. As, counterintuitively, these two systems perform very similarly, we have investigated whether incorporating HDL-C and TC as separate variables improves risk estimation.

  16. Using family atopy scores to identify the risk of atopic dermatitis in infants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melisa Anggraeni

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Background Atopic dermatitis is the first manifestation of allergic disease in early life. Early interventions may prevent the development of allergy disease. Allergy trace cards have been used to identify the level of allergic risk, based on family atopy scores. Because environmental factors may also influence the development of atopic dermatitis, the usefulness of the allergy trace card needs to be reevaluated. Objective To compare the incidence of atopic dermatitis in infants aged 0-4 months with total family atopy scores of > 0 to those with scores of 0. Methods We conducted this cohort study from June 1, 2012 to December 31, 2012 at Sanglah Hospital, Denpasar. Family atopy score was tabulated from all pregnant woman in the Obstetric Outpatient Clinic and the Maternity Room. Subjects were divided into two groups based on their total family atopy score: those with scores > 0 and those with scores of 0. The appearance of atopic dermatitis symptoms in the infants were evaluated until they reached 4 months of age. The incidence of atopic dermatitis in two groups was compared using Chi-square test. Results The incidence of atopic dermatitis in this study was 10.9%. The group with total family atopy scores of 0 had a significantly higher incidence of atopic dermatitis than the group with scores > 0 (adjusted RR 22.5; 95%CI 8.8 to 57.0; P = 0.001. Conclusion The incidence of atopic dermatitis is higher in infants with total family atopy score > 0 and this group has a 22.5 times higher risk of atopic dermatitis compared to infants with total family atopy score of 0. Allergy trace cards are relevant in differentiating the risk of atopy with regards to development of atopic dermatitis. We suggest that family atopy scores be evaluated during antenatal care in order to limit the development of atopic dermatitis in infants. [Paediatr Indones. 2014;54:330-7.].

  17. Performance of Surgical Risk Scores to Predict Mortality after Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation

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    Leonardo Sinnott Silva

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background: Predicting mortality in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI remains a challenge. Objectives: To evaluate the performance of 5 risk scores for cardiac surgery in predicting the 30-day mortality among patients of the Brazilian Registry of TAVI. Methods: The Brazilian Multicenter Registry prospectively enrolled 418 patients undergoing TAVI in 18 centers between 2008 and 2013. The 30-day mortality risk was calculated using the following surgical scores: the logistic EuroSCORE I (ESI, EuroSCORE II (ESII, Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS score, Ambler score (AS and Guaragna score (GS. The performance of the risk scores was evaluated in terms of their calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow test and discrimination [area under the receiver–operating characteristic curve (AUC]. Results: The mean age was 81.5 ± 7.7 years. The CoreValve (Medtronic was used in 86.1% of the cohort, and the transfemoral approach was used in 96.2%. The observed 30-day mortality was 9.1%. The 30-day mortality predicted by the scores was as follows: ESI, 20.2 ± 13.8%; ESII, 6.5 ± 13.8%; STS score, 14.7 ± 4.4%; AS, 7.0 ± 3.8%; GS, 17.3 ± 10.8%. Using AUC, none of the tested scores could accurately predict the 30-day mortality. AUC for the scores was as follows: 0.58 [95% confidence interval (CI: 0.49 to 0.68, p = 0.09] for ESI; 0.54 (95% CI: 0.44 to 0.64, p = 0.42 for ESII; 0.57 (95% CI: 0.47 to 0.67, p = 0.16 for AS; 0.48 (95% IC: 0.38 to 0.57, p = 0.68 for STS score; and 0.52 (95% CI: 0.42 to 0.62, p = 0.64 for GS. The Hosmer–Lemeshow test indicated acceptable calibration for all scores (p > 0.05. Conclusions: In this real world Brazilian registry, the surgical risk scores were inaccurate in predicting mortality after TAVI. Risk models specifically developed for TAVI are required.

  18. Psoriasis and the Framingham risk score in a Danish hospital cohort

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gyldenløve, Mette; Jensen, Peter; Linneberg, Allan

    2014-01-01

    -2011. Median psoriasis area and severity index score was 5.8 (range 0.0-39.8), and 10% of the patients received systemic antipsoriatic treatment. Body mass index (26.2 vs. 25.2 kg/m(2) , P = 0.005), waist circumference (96.0 vs. 88.0 cm, P ...BACKGROUND: Psoriasis is a chronic inflammatory skin disease, which is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Our aim was to compare the Framingham risk score, a method to estimate coronary heart disease and prevalences of cardiovascular risk factors.......009) were significantly higher in patients with psoriasis. We found no significant differences in Framingham risk scores between the groups. CONCLUSIONS: Patients from the hospital cohort had a higher prevalence of certain cardiovascular risk factors compared to individuals without psoriasis from...

  19. A Bayesian framework for automated cardiovascular risk scoring on standard lumbar radiographs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Peter Kersten; Ganz, Melanie; Mysling, Peter

    2012-01-01

    the score. Since the aorta is invisible on X-ray images, its position is reasoned from (1) the shape and location of the lumbar vertebrae and (2) the location, shape, and orientation of potential calcifications. The proposed framework follows the principle of Bayesian inference, which has several advantages......We present a fully automated framework for scoring a patients risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality from a standard lateral radiograph of the lumbar aorta. The framework segments abdominal aortic calcifications for computing a CVD risk score and performs a survival analysis to validate...

  20. Cardiovascular disease risk score prediction models for women and its applicability to Asians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goh LGH

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Louise GH Goh,1 Satvinder S Dhaliwal,1 Timothy A Welborn,2 Peter L Thompson,2–4 Bruce R Maycock,1 Deborah A Kerr,1 Andy H Lee,1 Dean Bertolatti,1 Karin M Clark,1 Rakhshanda Naheed,1 Ranil Coorey,1 Phillip R Della5 1School of Public Health, Curtin Health Innovation Research Institute, Curtin University, Perth, WA, Australia; 2Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital, Nedlands, Perth, WA, Australia; 3School of Population Health, University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia; 4Harry Perkins Institute for Medical Research, Perth, WA, Australia; 5School of Nursing and Midwifery, Curtin Health Innovation Research Institute, Curtin University, Perth, WA, Australia Purpose: Although elevated cardiovascular disease (CVD risk factors are associated with a higher risk of developing heart conditions across all ethnic groups, variations exist between groups in the distribution and association of risk factors, and also risk levels. This study assessed the 10-year predicted risk in a multiethnic cohort of women and compared the differences in risk between Asian and Caucasian women. Methods: Information on demographics, medical conditions and treatment, smoking behavior, dietary behavior, and exercise patterns were collected. Physical measurements were also taken. The 10-year risk was calculated using the Framingham model, SCORE (Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation risk chart for low risk and high risk regions, the general CVD, and simplified general CVD risk score models in 4,354 females aged 20–69 years with no heart disease, diabetes, or stroke at baseline from the third Australian Risk Factor Prevalence Study. Country of birth was used as a surrogate for ethnicity. Nonparametric statistics were used to compare risk levels between ethnic groups. Results: Asian women generally had lower risk of CVD when compared to Caucasian women. The 10-year predicted risk was, however, similar between Asian and Australian women, for some models. These findings were

  1. Women Up, Men Down: The Clinical Impact of Replacing the Framingham Risk Score with the Reynolds Risk Score in the United States Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tattersall, Matthew C.; Gangnon, Ronald E.; Karmali, Kunal N.; Keevil, Jon G.

    2012-01-01

    Background The Reynolds Risk Score (RRS) is one alternative to the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) for cardiovascular risk assessment. The Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP III) integrated the FRS a decade ago, but with the anticipated release of ATP IV, it remains uncertain how and which risk models will be integrated into the recommendations. We sought to define the effects in the United States population of a transition from the FRS to the RRS for cardiovascular risk assessment. Methods Using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, we assessed FRS and RRS in 2,502 subjects representing approximately 53.6 Million (M) men (ages 50–79) and women (ages 45–79), without cardiovascular disease or diabetes. We calculated the proportion reclassified by RRS and the subset whose LDL-C goal achievement changed. Results Compared to FRS, the RRS assigns a higher risk category to 13.9% of women and 9.1% of men while assigning a lower risk to 35.7% of men and 2% of women. Overall, 4.7% of women and 1.1% of men fail to meet newly intensified LDL-C goals using the RRS. Conversely, 10.5% of men and 0.6% of women now meet LDL-C goal using RRS when they had not by FRS. Conclusion In the U.S. population the RRS assigns a new risk category for one in six women and four of nine men. In general, women increase while men decrease risk. In conclusion, adopting the RRS for the 53.6 million eligible U.S. adults would result in intensification of clinical management in 1.6 M additional women and 2.10 M fewer men. PMID:22984495

  2. Women up, men down: the clinical impact of replacing the Framingham Risk Score with the Reynolds Risk Score in the United States population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew C Tattersall

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The Reynolds Risk Score (RRS is one alternative to the Framingham Risk Score (FRS for cardiovascular risk assessment. The Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP III integrated the FRS a decade ago, but with the anticipated release of ATP IV, it remains uncertain how and which risk models will be integrated into the recommendations. We sought to define the effects in the United States population of a transition from the FRS to the RRS for cardiovascular risk assessment. METHODS: Using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, we assessed FRS and RRS in 2,502 subjects representing approximately 53.6 Million (M men (ages 50-79 and women (ages 45-79, without cardiovascular disease or diabetes. We calculated the proportion reclassified by RRS and the subset whose LDL-C goal achievement changed. RESULTS: Compared to FRS, the RRS assigns a higher risk category to 13.9% of women and 9.1% of men while assigning a lower risk to 35.7% of men and 2% of women. Overall, 4.7% of women and 1.1% of men fail to meet newly intensified LDL-C goals using the RRS. Conversely, 10.5% of men and 0.6% of women now meet LDL-C goal using RRS when they had not by FRS. CONCLUSION: In the U.S. population the RRS assigns a new risk category for one in six women and four of nine men. In general, women increase while men decrease risk. In conclusion, adopting the RRS for the 53.6 million eligible U.S. adults would result in intensification of clinical management in 1.6 M additional women and 2.10 M fewer men.

  3. 75 FR 54020 - Federal Housing Administration Risk Management Initiatives: New Loan-to-Value and Credit Score...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-03

    ... loan-to-value (LTV) for borrowers with lower credit scores who represent a higher risk of default and.... The new LTV and credit score requirements will reduce the risk to the MMIF and ensure that home buyers..., specific to each applicant. Lower credit scores indicate greater risk of default on any new credit extended...

  4. A longitudinal analysis of diet quality scores and the risk of incident depression in the SUN Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez-Villegas, Almudena; Henríquez-Sánchez, Patricia; Ruiz-Canela, Miguel; Lahortiga, Francisca; Molero, Patricio; Toledo, Estefanía; Martínez-González, Miguel A

    2015-09-17

    Some studies have pointed out that several dietary patterns could be associated with a reduced risk of depression among adults. This association seems to be consistent across countries, cultures and populations. The objective of the study was to compare and to establish the type of relationship between three diet quality scores and depression in the SUN (Seguimiento Universidad de Navarra) Cohort study. We performed a dynamic cohort study based on Spanish university graduates free of depression at baseline. Dietary intake was repeatedly assessed at baseline and after 10 years of follow-up with a validated semi-quantitative food-frequency questionnaire. Three previously described diet quality scores: Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS), Pro-vegetarian Dietary Pattern (PDP) and Alternative Healthy Eating Index-2010 (AHEI-2010) were built. Participants were classified as having depression if they reported a new clinical diagnosis of depression by a physician or initiated the use of an antidepressant drug during follow-up. Time-dependent Cox regression models with cumulative averages of diet and restricted cubic splines were used to estimate hazard ratios of depression according to quintiles of adherence to the MDS, PDP and AHEI-2010. One thousand and fifty one incident cases of depression were observed among 15,093 participants from the SUN Cohort after a median follow-up of 8.5 years. Inverse and significant associations were observed between the three diet quality scores and depression risk. The hazard ratios and 95 % confidence intervals for extreme quintiles (fifth versus first) of updated adherence to MDS, PDP and AHEI-2010 were 0.84 (0.69-1.02), 0.74 (0.61-0.89) and 0.60 (0.49-0.72), respectively. The dose-response analyses showed non-linear associations, suggesting that suboptimal adherence to these dietary patterns may partially be responsible for increased depression risk. Better adherence to the MDS, PDP and AHEI-2010 was associated with a reduced risk of

  5. Predictive value of updating framingham risk scores with novel risk markers in the U.S. general population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B.S. Ferket (Bart); B.J.H. van Kempen (Bob); M.G.M. Hunink (Myriam); I. Agarwal (Isha); M. Kavousi (Maryam); O.H. Franco (Oscar); E.W. Steyerberg (Ewout); W. Max (Wendy); K.E. Fleischmann (Kirsten)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractBackground: According to population-based cohort studies CT coronary calcium score (CTCS), carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT), high-sensitivity C- reactive protein (CRP), and ankle-brachial index (ABI) are promising novel risk markers for improving cardiovascular risk assessment. Thei

  6. Recurrent Stroke: The Value of the CHA2DS2VASc Score and the Essen Stroke Risk Score in a Nationwide Stroke Cohort

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Søren Due; Gorst-Rasmussen, Anders; Lip, Gregory Y H

    2015-01-01

    Background and Purpose—The CHA2DS2VASc score and the Essen Stroke Risk Score are respectively used for risk stratification in patients with atrial fibrillation and in patients with cerebrovascular incidents. We aimed to test the ability of the 2 scores to predict stroke recurrence, death......, and cardiovascular events (stroke, transient ischemic attack, myocardial infarction, or arterial thromboembolism) in a nationwide Danish cohort study, among patients with incident ischemic stroke and no atrial fibrillation. Methods—We conducted a registry-based study in patients with incident ischemic stroke...... and no atrial fibrillation. Patients were stratified according to the CHA2DS2VASc score and the Essen Stroke Risk Score and were followed up until stroke recurrence or death. We estimated stratified incidence rates and hazard ratios and calculated the cumulative risks. Results—42 182 patients with incident...

  7. Comparison of contemporary risk scores for predicting outcomes after surgery for active infective endocarditis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tom Kai Ming; Oh, Timothy; Voss, Jamie; Gamble, Greg; Kang, Nicholas; Pemberton, James

    2015-03-01

    Decision making regarding surgery for acute bacterial endocarditis is complex given its heterogeneity and often fatal course. Few studies have investigated the utility of operative risk scores in this setting. Endocarditis-specific scores have recently been developed. We assessed the prognostic utility of contemporary risk scores for mortality and morbidity after endocarditis surgery. Additive and logistic EuroSCORE I, EuroSCORE II, additive Society of Thoracic Surgeon's (STS) Endocarditis Score and additive De Feo-Cotrufo Score were retrospectively calculated for patients undergoing surgery for endocarditis during 2005-2011. Pre-specified primary outcomes were operative mortality, composite morbidity and mortality during follow-up. A total of 146 patients were included with an operative mortality of 6.8 % followed for 4.1 ± 2.4 years. Mean scores were additive EuroSCORE I: 8.0 ± 2.5, logistic EuroSCORE I: 13.2 ± 10.1 %, EuroSCORE II: 9.1 % ± 9.4 %, STS Score: 32.2 ± 13.5 and De Feo-Cotrufo Score: 14.6 ± 9.2. Corresponding areas under curve (AUC) for operative mortality 0.653, 0.645, 0.656, 0.699 and 0.744; for composite morbidity were 0.623, 0.625, 0.720, 0.714 and 0.774; and long-term mortality 0.588, 0.579, 0.686, 0.735 and 0.751. The best tool for post-operative stroke was EuroSCORE II: AUC 0.837; for ventilation >24 h and return to theatre the De Feo-Cotrufo Scores were: AUC 0.821 and 0.712. Pre-operative inotrope or intra-aortic balloon pump treatment, previous coronary bypass grafting and dialysis were independent predictors of operative and long-term mortality. In conclusion, risk models developed specifically from endocarditis surgeries and incorporating endocarditis variables have improved prognostic ability of outcomes, and can play an important role in the decision making towards surgery for endocarditis.

  8. A Retrospective Analysis of Pressure Ulcer Incidence and Modified Braden Scale Score Risk Classifications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hong-Lin; Cao, Ying-Juan; Wang, Jing; Huai, Bao-Sha

    2015-09-01

    The Braden Scale is the most widely used pressure ulcer risk assessment in the world, but the currently used 5 risk classification groups do not accurately discriminate among their risk categories. To optimize risk classification based on Braden Scale scores, a retrospective analysis of all consecutively admitted patients in an acute care facility who were at risk for pressure ulcer development was performed between January 2013 and December 2013. Predicted pressure ulcer incidence first was calculated by logistic regression model based on original Braden score. Risk classification then was modified based on the predicted pressure ulcer incidence and compared between different risk categories in the modified (3-group) classification and the traditional (5-group) classification using chi-square test. Two thousand, six hundred, twenty-five (2,625) patients (mean age 59.8 ± 16.5, range 1 month to 98 years, 1,601 of whom were men) were included in the study; 81 patients (3.1%) developed a pressure ulcer. The predicted pressure ulcer incidence ranged from 0.1% to 49.7%. When the predicted pressure ulcer incidence was greater than 10.0% (high risk), the corresponding Braden scores were less than 11; when the predicted incidence ranged from 1.0% to 10.0% (moderate risk), the corresponding Braden scores ranged from 12 to 16; and when the predicted incidence was less than 1.0% (mild risk), the corresponding Braden scores were greater than 17. In the modified classification, observed pressure ulcer incidence was significantly different between each of the 3 risk categories (P less than 0.05). However, in the traditional classification, the observed incidence was not significantly different between the high-risk category and moderate-risk category (P less than 0.05) and between the mild-risk category and no-risk category (P less than 0.05). If future studies confirm the validity of these findings, pressure ulcer prevention protocols of care based on Braden Scale scores can

  9. Correlation between the FINish diabetes risk score and the severity of coronary artery disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Đurić Predrag

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aim. The FINish Diabetes RIsk SCore (FINDRISC which includes age, body mass index (BMI, waist circumference, physical (in activity, diet, arterial hypertension, history of high glucose levels, and family history of diabetes, is of a great significance in identifying patients with impaired glucose tolerance and a 10-year risk assessment of developing type 2 diabetes in adults. Due to the fact that the FINDRISC score includes parameters which are risk factors for coronary artery disease (CAD, our aim was to determine a correlation between this score, and some of its parameters respectively, with the severity of angiographically verified CAD in patients with stable angina in two ways: according to the Synergy between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention with Taxus and Cardiac Surgery (SYNTAX score and the number of diseased coronary arteries. Methods. The study included 70 patients with stable angina consecutively admitted to the Clinic of Cardiology, Military Medical Academy, Belgrade. The FINDRISC score was calculated in all the patients immediately prior to angiography. Venous blood samples were collected and inflammatory markers [erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR, leucocytes, C-reactive protein (CRP, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, triglycerides and fasting glucose] determined. Coronary angiography was performed in order to determine the severity of coronary artery disease according to the SYNTAX score and the number of affected coronary vessels: 1-vessel, 2-vessel or 3-vessel disease (hemodynamically significant stenoses: more than 70% of the blood vessel lumen. The patients were divided into three groups regarding the FINDRISC score: group I: 5-11 points; group II: 12-16 points; group III: 17-22 points. Results. Out of 70 patients (52 men and 18 women enrolled in this study, 14 had normal coronary angiogram. There was a statistically significant positive correlation between the FINDRISC score and its parameters respectively

  10. Metabolic syndrome risk score and time expended in moderate to vigorous physical activity in adolescents

    OpenAIRE

    Stabelini Neto,Antonio; Campos,Wagner de; dos Santos, Géssika Castilho; Mazzardo Junior, Oldemar

    2014-01-01

    Background The clustering of metabolic syndrome risk factors is inversely related to the amount of physical activity. However, the question remains as to how much daily physical activity is enough to prevent the onset of metabolic disorders in adolescents? Therefore, the objectives of this study were to associate the metabolic risk score with the moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and to identify the amount of daily physical activity to prevent the onset of the metabolic risk facto...

  11. Comparison of mortality risk: a score for very low birthweight infants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maier, R; Rey, M; Metze, B; Obladen;, M; TARNOW-MORDI, W.

    1997-01-01

    AIM—To develop and evaluate a score which quantifies mortality risk in very low birthweight (VLBW) infants (birthweight below 1500 g) at admission to the neonatal intensive care unit.
METHODS—Five hundred and seventy two VLBW infants admitted from 1978 to 1987 were randomly assigned to a cohort (n = 396) for score development and a cohort (n = 176) for score validation. Two hundred and ninety four VLBW infants admitted from 1988 to 1991 were used to compare risk adjusted mortality between the two eras.
RESULTS—Using multiple regression analysis, birthweight, Apgar score at 5 minutes, base excess at admission, severity of respiratory distress syndrome, and artificial ventilation were predictive of death in the development cohort. According to regression coefficients, a score ranging from 3 to 40 was developed. At a cutoff of 21, it predicted death in the validation cohort with a sensitivity of 0.85, a specificity of 0.73, and a correct classification rate of 0.76. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.86. There was no significant difference in risk severity and in risk adjusted mortality between the eras 1978-87 and 1988-91.
CONCLUSION—The present score is robust, easily obtainable at admission, and permits early randomisation based on mortality risk.

 Keywords: mortality risk; scoring system; very low birthweight PMID:9175942

  12. Risk stratification with the risk chart from the European Society of Hypertension compared with SCORE in the general population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sehestedt, Thomas; Jeppesen, Jørgen; Hansen, Tine W;

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The risk chart from the European Society of Hypertension (ESH) and Systemic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) from the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) are equally recommended tools for risk stratification. However, ESH risk chart recommends measuring subclinical organ damage, whereas...... SCORE is based on traditional risk factors. We wanted to compare the predictive performance of the two charts. METHODS: In a Danish population sample of 1344 individuals aged 41, 51, 61 and 71 years without known diabetes, prior stroke or myocardial infarction, not receiving cardiovascular, antidiabetic...... or lipid-lowering medications and with higher than optimal blood pressure (> or =120/80 mmHg), we measured traditional risk factors and subclinical organ damage. The endpoints were cardiovascular death and a composite of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction and stroke (CEP). RESULTS: During...

  13. Ten-year absolute risk of osteoporotic fractures according to BMD T score at menopause

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abrahamsen, Bo; Vestergaard, Peter; Rud, Bo;

    2006-01-01

    was 10.9% as opposed to an expected risk of 5.7%. Relative risk gradients were similar to those of the recent meta-analysis. CONCLUSIONS: In healthy women, examined in the first year or two after menopause, 10-year fracture risk was higher at each level of BMD T score than expected from the model...... by Kanis et al. Inclusion of HRT users in the cohorts used may have led to higher BMD values and lower absolute fracture risk in the Kanis model. These longitudinal data can be used directly in estimating absolute fracture risk in untreated north European women from BMD at menopause....

  14. Ten-year absolute risk of osteoporotic fractures according to BMD T score at menopause

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abrahamsen, Bo; Vestergaard, Peter; Rud, Bo

    2006-01-01

    was 10.9% as opposed to an expected risk of 5.7%. Relative risk gradients were similar to those of the recent meta-analysis. CONCLUSIONS: In healthy women, examined in the first year or two after menopause, 10-year fracture risk was higher at each level of BMD T score than expected from the model...... by Kanis et al. Inclusion of HRT users in the cohorts used may have led to higher BMD values and lower absolute fracture risk in the Kanis model. These longitudinal data can be used directly in estimating absolute fracture risk in untreated north European women from BMD at menopause....

  15. Ethnic group differences in cardiovascular risk assessment scores: national cross-sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalton, Andrew R H; Bottle, Alex; Soljak, Michael; Majeed, Azeem; Millett, Christopher

    2014-08-01

    There are marked inequalities in cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence and outcomes between ethnic groups. CVD risk scores are increasingly used in preventive medicine and should aim to accurately reflect differences between ethnic groups. Ethnicity, as an independent risk factor for CVD, can be accounted for in CVD risk scores primarily using two methods, either directly incorporating it as a risk factor in the algorithm or through a post hoc adjustment of risk. We aim to compare these two methods in terms of their prediction of CVD across ethnic groups using representative national data from England. A cross-sectional study using data from the Health Survey for England. We measured ethnic group differences in risk estimation between the QRISK2, which includes ethnicity and Joint British Societies 2 (JBS2) algorithm, which uses post hoc risk adjustment factor for South Asian men. The QRISK2 score produces lower median estimates of CVD risk than JBS2 overall (6.6% [lower quartile-upper quartile (LQ-UQ)=4.0-18.6] compared with 9.3% [LQ-UQ=2.3-16.9]). Differences in median risk scores are significantly greater in South Asian men (7.5% [LQ-UQ=3.6-12.5]) compared with White men (3.0% [LQ-UQ=0.7-5.9]). Using QRISK2, 19.1% [95% confidence interval (CI)=16.2-22.0] fewer South Asian men are designated at high risk compared with 8.8% (95% CI=5.9-7.8) fewer in White men. Across all ethnic groups, women had a lower median QRISK2 score (0.72 [LQ-UQ=- 0.6 to 2.13]), although relatively more (2.0% [95% CI=1.4-2.6]) were at high risk than with JBS2. Ethnicity is an important CVD risk factor. Current scoring tools used in the UK produce significantly different estimates of CVD risk within ethnic groups, particularly in South Asian men. Work to accurately estimate CVD risk in ethnic minority groups is important if CVD prevention programmes are to address health inequalities.

  16. New risk markers may change the HeartScore risk classification significantly in one-fifth of the population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, M H; Hansen, T W; Christensen, M K;

    2008-01-01

    The study aim was to determine whether urine albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) or N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (Nt-proBNP) added to risk prediction based on HeartScore and history of diabetes or cardiovascular disease. A Danish population sam......CRP in subjects with low-moderate risk and UACR and Nt-proBNP in subjects with known diabetes of cardiovascular disease changed HeartScore risk classification significantly in 19% of the population.......The study aim was to determine whether urine albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) or N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (Nt-proBNP) added to risk prediction based on HeartScore and history of diabetes or cardiovascular disease. A Danish population...... sample of 2460 individuals was divided in three groups: 472 subjects receiving cardiovascular medication or having history of diabetes, prior myocardial infarction or stroke, 559 high-risk subjects with a 10-year risk of cardiovascular death above 5% as estimated by HeartScore, and 1429 low-moderate risk...

  17. Unsupervised deep learning applied to breast density segmentation and mammographic risk scoring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kallenberg, Michiel Gijsbertus J.; Petersen, Peter Kersten; Nielsen, Mads

    2016-01-01

    Mammographic risk scoring has commonly been automated by extracting a set of handcrafted features from mammograms, and relating the responses directly or indirectly to breast cancer risk. We present a method that learns a feature hierarchy from unlabeled data. When the learned features are used...... as the input to a simple classifier, two different tasks can be addressed: i) breast density segmentation, and ii) scoring of mammographic texture. The proposed model learns features at multiple scales. To control the models capacity a novel sparsity regularizer is introduced that incorporates both lifetime...... and population sparsity. We evaluated our method on three different clinical datasets. Our state-of-the-art results show that the learned breast density scores have a very strong positive relationship with manual ones, and that the learned texture scores are predictive of breast cancer. The model is easy...

  18. A Risk Score to Predict Hypertension in Primary Care Settings in Rural India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sathish, Thirunavukkarasu; Kannan, Srinivasan; Sarma, P Sankara; Razum, Oliver; Thrift, Amanda Gay; Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman

    2016-01-01

    We used the data of 297 participants (15-64 years old) from a cohort study (2003-2010) who were free from hypertension at baseline, to develop a risk score to predict hypertension by primary health care workers in rural India. Age ≥35 years, current smoking, prehypertension, and central obesity were significantly associated with incident hypertension. The optimal cutoff value of ≥3 had a sensitivity of 78.6%, specificity of 65.2%, positive predictive value of 41.1%, and negative predictive value of 90.8%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the risk score was 0.802 (95% confidence interval = 0.748-0.856). This simple and easy to administer risk score could be used to predict hypertension in primary care settings in rural India.

  19. Evaluation of a risk factor scoring model in screening for undiagnosed diabetes in China population

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jian-jun DONG; Neng-jun LOU; Jia-jun ZHAO; Zhong-wen ZHANG; Lu-lu QIU; Ying ZHOU; Lin LIAO

    2011-01-01

    Objective:To develop a risk scoring model for screening for undiagnosed type 2 diabetes in Chinese population.Methods:A total of 5348 subjects from two districts of Jinan City,Shandong Province,China were enrolled.Group A (2985) included individuals from east of the city and Group B (2363) from west of the city.Screening questionnaires and a standard oral glucose tolerance test (OGTr) were completed by all subjects.Based on the stepwise logistic regression analysis of Group A,variables were selected to establish the risk scoring model.The validity and effectiveness of this model were evaluated in Group B.Results:Based on stepwise logistic regression analysis performed with data of Group A,variables including age,body mass index (BMI),waist-to-hip ratio (WHR),systolic pressure,diastolic pressure,heart rate,family history of diabetes,and history of high glucose were accepted into the risk scoring model.The risk for having diabetes increased along with aggregate scores.When Youden index was closest to 1,the optimal cutoff value was set up at 51.At this point,the diabetes risk scoring model could identify diabetes patients with a sensitivity of 83.3% and a specificity of 66.5%,making the positive predictive value 12.83%and negative predictive value 98.53%.We compared our model with the Finnish and Danish model and concluded that our model has superior validity in Chinese population.Conclusions:Our diabetes risk scoring model has satisfactory sensitivity and specificity for identifying undiagnosed diabetes in our population,which might be a simple and practical tool suitable for massive diabetes screening.

  20. Evaluation of the relative risk of stroke in patients with hypertension using cerebrovascular hemodynamic accumulative score

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HUANG Jiuyi; WANG Guiqing; GUO Jiping; CAO Yifeng; WANG Yan; YANG Yongju; YU Xuehai

    2007-01-01

    The relative risk(RR)of stroke in patients with hypertension was evaluated by using synthetic index of cerebrovascular hemodynamics.A total of 7,371 patients with hypertension with ages≥40 years were selected from a population-based cohort study of the risk factors for stroke.The data on the baseline investigation of risk factors,the determination of cerebrovascular hemodynamic parameters (CVHP),and stroke follow-up were analyzed.The RR of stroke in patients with hypertension was evaluated by CVHP scores.Univariate analysis indicated that hypertension,complicated by other risk factors,had significant statistical association with the onset of stroke.RRS for stroke when hypertension complicated with decrease of hemodynamic scores,heart disease,cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption were 4.93(95%CI,3.26-7.45),1.90(95%CI,1.36-2.66),1.99(95%CI,1.42-2.79)and 1.73(95%CI,1.19-2.53)respectively.In multivariate analysis,hemodynamic score,age,sex,cigarette smoking,family history of stroke and systolic blood pressure were selected by the Cox regression for inclusion in the final analysis.Among them,the RR of hemodynamic score was highest.The analysis of doseresponse relationships indicated that when the hemodynamic scores in patients with hypertension were lower than 75 points,the RR of stroke at 75,60,45,30 and 15 points were 2.85,4.43,4.54,5.40 and 9.88,respectively.The risk of stroke in patients with hypertension is closely associated with hemodynamic impairment and the hemodynamic score may be used for quantitative evaluation of relative risks of stroke.

  1. Risk Score Model for Predicting Sonographic Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease in Children and Adolescents

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    Parinaz Poursafa

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Objective: This study aimed to develop and test the validity of a risk score to be used as a simple tool to identify those children at high risk of sonographic non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD. Methods:This cross-sectional study was conducted among 962 participants aged 6-18 years in Isfahan, Iran. They consisted of three groups of nearly equal number of normal-weight, overweight and obese individuals. Coefficients of the logistic regression models were used to assign a score value for each variable and the composite sonographic NAFLD risk score was calculated as the sum of those scores. Performance of model was assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve procedure. Findings:Data of 931 participants was included in the analysis. The sonographic findings of 16.8% of participants were compatible with NAFLD. Age, sex, body mass index, waist circumference and serum triglycerides level were diagnosed as factors associated with NAFLD. The risk score was calculated as 50 for sonographic NAFLD. Conclusion:This study, to the best of our knowledge is the first of its kind in the pediatric age group, focuses on predicting sonographic NAFLD from easily-measured factors. It may suggest an association of hypertriglyceridemic-waist phenotype with NAFLD in the pediatric age group.

  2. Predictive value of updating Framingham risk scores with novel risk markers in the U.S. general population.

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    Bart S Ferket

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: According to population-based cohort studies CT coronary calcium score (CTCS, carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT, high-sensitivity C- reactive protein (CRP, and ankle-brachial index (ABI are promising novel risk markers for improving cardiovascular risk assessment. Their impact in the U.S. general population is however uncertain. Our aim was to estimate the predictive value of four novel cardiovascular risk markers for the U.S. general population. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Risk profiles, CRP and ABI data of 3,736 asymptomatic subjects aged 40 or older from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 2003-2004 exam were used along with predicted CTCS and cIMT values. For each subject, we calculated 10-year cardiovascular risks with and without each risk marker. Event rates adjusted for competing risks were obtained by microsimulation. We assessed the impact of updated 10-year risk scores by reclassification and C-statistics. In the study population (mean age 56±11 years, 48% male, 70% (80% were at low (<10%, 19% (14% at intermediate (≥10-<20%, and 11% (6% at high (≥20% 10-year CVD (CHD risk. Net reclassification improvement was highest after updating 10-year CVD risk with CTCS: 0.10 (95%CI 0.02-0.19. The C-statistic for 10-year CVD risk increased from 0.82 by 0.02 (95%CI 0.01-0.03 with CTCS. Reclassification occurred most often in those at intermediate risk: with CTCS, 36% (38% moved to low and 22% (30% to high CVD (CHD risk. Improvements with other novel risk markers were limited. CONCLUSIONS: Only CTCS appeared to have significant incremental predictive value in the U.S. general population, especially in those at intermediate risk. In future research, cost-effectiveness analyses should be considered for evaluating novel cardiovascular risk assessment strategies.

  3. Framingham Risk Score as a Prognostic Predictor of Sudden Sensorineural Hearing Loss: A Preliminary Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Young-Soo; Choi, Ji Eun; Ahn, Jungmin; Ryu, Nam-Gyu; Moon, Il Joon; Hong, Sung Hwa; Cho, Yang-Sun; Chung, Won-Ho

    2017-05-01

    Predicting the prognosis of idiopathic sudden sensorineural hearing loss (ISSHL) remains challenging. This investigation aimed to apply Framingham Risk Scores (FRS) to assess the combination of prognostic factors following ISSHL and investigate the predictive role of FRS in patients with multiple comorbidities including hypertension, diabetes, and hyperlipidemia. Retrospective study. Twenty-one patients presenting with unilateral idiopathic sudden sensorineural hearing loss and multiple comorbidities were surveyed. Framingham Risk Score was calculated, and patients were assigned into high-risk (FRS ≥20%) and low-risk (FRS hearing outcomes following established criteria were investigated. All patients were treated with the same protocol of oral methylprednisolone. Overall successful recovery rate (complete + marked recovery) was 23.81%. The mean PTA threshold of the low-risk group showed significant improvement (mean PTA ± standard error, SE: pretreatment, 73.23 ± 11.80; posttreatment, 54.89 ± 10.25, P = .002), while the high-risk group did not show significant improvement in mean PTA threshold (mean PTA ± SE: pretreatment, 71.94 ± 11.77; posttreatment, 68.89 ± 12.81, P = .73). Framingham Risk Scores may be useful in predicting outcomes for ISSHL patients with multiple comorbidities.

  4. The development of a risk score for unplanned removal of peripherally inserted central catheter in newborns

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    Priscila Costa

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: to develop a risk score for unplanned removal of peripherally inserted central catheter in newborns.METHOD: prospective cohort study conducted in a neonatal intensive care unit with newborn babies who underwent 524 catheter insertions. The clinical characteristics of the newborn, catheter insertion and intravenous therapy were tested as risk factors for the unplanned removal of catheters using bivariate analysis. The risk score was developed using logistic regression. Accuracy was internally validated based on the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve.RESULTS: the risk score was made up of the following risk factors: transient metabolic disorders; previous insertion of catheter; use of a polyurethane double-lumen catheter; infusion of multiple intravenous solutions through a single-lumen catheter; and tip in a noncentral position. Newborns were classified into three categories of risk of unplanned removal: low (0 to 3 points, moderate (4 to 8 points, and high (≥ 9 points. Accuracy was 0.76.CONCLUSION: the adoption of evidence-based preventative strategies based on the classification and risk factors faced by the newborn is recommended to minimize the occurrence of unplanned removals.

  5. Risk Factors and Scoring Systems for Patients with Candidemia at a Tertiary Hospital in Jakarta, Indonesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mursinah, Mursinah; Ibrahim, Fera; Wahid, Mardiastuti H

    2016-07-01

    to identify the risk factors of candidemia and to develop a scoring system that could be implemented in Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital (RSCM), Jakarta, Indonesia. this study was a retrospective study with case control design using the medical records of patients since 2011 to 2014. All sepsis patients hospitalized in the RSCM with a positive blood culture for Candida were included in this study as a case group. The control group was all of the sepsis patients without candidemia. The ratio for case and control groups was equal (1:1). from 234 patients who were analyzed, the risk factors that influenced the study were length of stay of 8-14 days (OR 3.464; 95% CI 1.458-7.800), length of stay of more than 14 days (OR 6.844; 95% CI 3.0-15.330), severe sepsis (OR 16.407; 95% CI 1.458-7.800), and surgery (OR 3.03; 95% CI 1.492-6.152). The predictors for candidemia in RSCM were length of stay in hospital for 8-14 days (score 1), a length of stay ≥14 days (score 2), severe sepsis (score 3), and surgery (score 1), with a cut off score of 3.5. the results of this study have indicated that a scoring system in order to guide an empirical treatment for candidemia can be developed by using the risk factors for candidemia from patients who have been identified as patients with risk at Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital.

  6. A modified risk assessment scoring system for post laser in situ keratomileusis ectasia in topographically normal patients

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    Mohammad Miraftab

    2014-01-01

    Conclusion: Our modified ectasia risk scoring system for patients with normal corneal topography can predict post LASIK ectasia risk with acceptable sensitivity and specificity. However, there are still unidentified risk factors for which further studies are required.

  7. Assessment of the EuroSCORE risk scoring system for patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery in a group of Iranian patients

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    Hamidreza Jamaati

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background and Aims: Previous studies around the world indicated validity and accuracy of European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE risk scoring system we evaluated the EuroSCORE risk scoring system for patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft (CABG surgery in a group of Iranian patients. Materials and Methods: In this cohort 2220 patients more than 18 years, who were performed CABG surgery in Massih Daneshvari Hospital, from January 2004 to March 2010 were recruited. Predicted mortality risk scores were calculated using logistic EuroSCORE and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II and compared with observed mortality. Calibration was measured by the Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL test and discrimination by using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve area. Results: Of the 2220 patients, in hospital deaths occurred in 270 patients (mortality rate of 12.2%. The accuracy of mortality prediction in the logistic EuroSCORE and APACHE II model was 89.1%; in the local EuroSCORE (logistic was 91.89%; and in the local EuroSCORE support vector machines (SVM was 98.6%. The area under curve for ROC curve, was 0.724 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.57-0.88 for logistic EuroSCORE; 0.836 (95% CI: 0.731-0.942 for local EuroSCORE (logistic; 0.978 (95% CI: 0.937-1 for Local EuroSCORE (SVM; and 0.832 (95% CI: 0.723-0.941 for APACHE II model. The HL test showed good calibration for the local EuroSCORE (SVM, APACHE II model and local EuroSCORE (logistic (P = 0.823, P = 0.748 and P = 0.06 respectively; but there was a significant difference between expected and observed mortality according to EuroSCORE model (P = 0.033. Conclusion: We detected logistic EuroSCORE risk model is not applicable on Iranian patients undergoing CABG surgery.

  8. Risk of Asthma in Late Preterm Infants: A Propensity Score Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voge, Gretchen A; Katusic, Slavica K; Qin, Rui; Juhn, Young J

    2015-01-01

    Background The risk of asthma, specifically in former late preterm infants, has not been well defined. Covariate imbalance and lack of controlling for this has led to inconsistent results in prior studies. Objective Determine the risk of asthma in former late preterm infants using a propensity score approach. Methods The study was a population-based birth cohort study. Study subjects were all children born in Rochester, Minnesota, between 1976 and 1982. Asthma status during the first seven years of life was assessed by applying predetermined criteria. The propensity score was formulated using 15 covariates by fitting a logistic regression model for late preterm birth versus term birth. We applied the propensity score method to match late preterm infants (34 0/7 to 36 6/7 weeks gestation) to term infants (37 0/7 to 40 6/7 weeks gestation) within a caliper of 0.2 standard deviation of logit of propensity score. Results Of the eligible 7,040 infants, 5,915 children had complete data. Before propensity score matching, late preterm infants had a higher risk of asthma (20 of 262, 7.6%) compared to full-term infants (272 of 5,653, 4.8%)(p=0.039). There was significant covariate imbalance between comparison groups. After matching with propensity scores, we found that former late preterm infants had a similar risk of asthma to the matched full-term infants (6.6% vs. 7.7%, respectively, p=0.61), and the result were consistent with covariate-adjustment, Cox regression models controlling for significant covariates (p=0.57). Conclusion A late preterm birth history is not independently associated with childhood asthma, as the reported risk of asthma among former late preterm infants appears to be due to covariate imbalance. PMID:25944734

  9. A novel risk score to predict cardiovascular disease risk in national populations (Globorisk)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hajifathalian, Kaveh; Ueda, Peter; Lu, Yuan

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Treatment of cardiovascular risk factors based on disease risk depends on valid risk prediction equations. We aimed to develop, and apply in example countries, a risk prediction equation for cardiovascular disease (consisting here of coronary heart disease and stroke) that can be reca...

  10. A clinically useful risk-score for chronic kidney disease in HIV infection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mocroft, Amanda; Lundgren, Jens; Ross, Michael;

    2014-01-01

    baseline eGFR, female gender, lower CD4 nadir, hypertension, diabetes and cardiovascular disease predicted CKD and were included in the risk score (Figure 1). The incidence of CKD in those at low, medium and high risk was 0.8/1000 PYFU (95% CI 0.6-1.0), 5.6 (95% CI 4.5-6.7) and 37.4 (95% CI 34.......0-40.7) (Figure 1). The risk score showed good discrimination (Harrell's c statistic 0.92, 95% CI 0.90-0.93). The number needed to harm (NNTH) in patients starting ATV or LPV/r was 1395, 142 or 20, respectively, among those with low, medium or high risk. NNTH were 603, 61 and 9 for those with a low, medium...

  11. The Application of Genetic Risk Scores in Age-Related Macular Degeneration: A Review

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    Jessica N. Cooke Bailey

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Age-related macular degeneration (AMD, a highly prevalent and impactful disease of aging, is inarguably influenced by complex interactions between genetic and environmental factors. Various risk scores have been tested that assess measurable genetic and environmental contributions to disease. We herein summarize and review the ability and utility of these numerous models for prediction of AMD and suggest additional risk factors to be incorporated into clinically useful predictive models of AMD.

  12. An Asian validation of the TIMI risk score for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction.

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    Sharmini Selvarajah

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Risk stratification in ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI is important, such that the most resource intensive strategy is used to achieve the greatest clinical benefit. This is essential in developing countries with wide variation in health care facilities, scarce resources and increasing burden of cardiovascular diseases. This study sought to validate the Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI risk score for STEMI in a multi-ethnic developing country. METHODS: Data from a national, prospective, observational registry of acute coronary syndromes was used. The TIMI risk score was evaluated in 4701 patients who presented with STEMI. Model discrimination and calibration was tested in the overall population and in subgroups of patients that were at higher risk of mortality; i.e., diabetics and those with renal impairment. RESULTS: Compared to the TIMI population, this study population was younger, had more chronic conditions, more severe index events and received treatment later. The TIMI risk score was strongly associated with 30-day mortality. Discrimination was good for the overall study population (c statistic 0.785 and in the high risk subgroups; diabetics (c statistic 0.764 and renal impairment (c statistic 0.761. Calibration was good for the overall study population and diabetics, with χ2 goodness of fit test p value of 0.936 and 0.983 respectively, but poor for those with renal impairment, χ2 goodness of fit test p value of 0.006. CONCLUSIONS: The TIMI risk score is valid and can be used for risk stratification of STEMI patients for better targeted treatment.

  13. Obstetrical complications and Apgar score in subjects at risk of psychosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotlicka-Antczak, Magdalena; Pawełczyk, Agnieszka; Rabe-Jabłońska, Jolanta; Smigielski, Janusz; Pawełczyk, Tomasz

    2014-01-01

    The objective of the study was to identify associations between a history of obstetrical complications (OCs) and the future development of symptoms indicating risk of psychosis (At Risk Mental State - ARMS). The frequency of OCs was assessed in 66 ARMS subjects, 50 subjects with the first episode of schizophrenia (FES) and 50 healthy controls. Obstetrical data was obtained from medical documentation and evaluated with the Lewis and Murray Scale. Definite OCs, according to the Lewis and Murray Scale, occurred significantly more frequently in the ARMS group compared to the controls (χ(2) = 7.79, p = 0.005; OR = 4.20, 95% CI = 1.46-12.11), as well as in the FES subjects compared to the controls (χ(2) = 8.39, p = 0.004; OR = 4.64, 95% CI = 1.56-13.20). Apgar scores in the first (Apgar 1) and the fifth minute after birth (Apgar 5) were significantly lower in the FES subjects compared to the controls (for Apgar 1 score Z = 4.439, p Apgar 5 score Z = 5.250, p Apgar 5 scores compared to the healthy controls (Z = 3.458, p = 0.0016). The results indicate that OCs and low Apgar 5 score should be considered important factors in identifying subjects at risk of developing psychosis.

  14. An Inflammatory Polymorphisms Risk Scoring System for the Differentiation of Ischemic Stroke Subtypes

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    Elena Muiño

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Inflammation has been associated with atherothrombotic stroke and recently with cardioembolic stroke. Different genetic risk factors have been specifically associated with the subtypes of ischemic stroke (cardioembolic, atherothrombotic, and lacunar. However, there are no studies that have generated genetic risk scores for the different subtypes of ischemic stroke using polymorphisms associated with inflammation. Methods. We have analyzed 68 polymorphisms of 30 inflammatory mediator genes in 2,685 subjects: 1,987 stroke cases and 698 controls. We generated a genetic scoring system with the most significant polymorphisms weighted by the odds ratio of every polymorphism and taken into consideration the stroke subtype. Results. Three polymorphisms, rs1205 (CRP gene, rs1800779, and rs2257073 (NOS3 gene, were associated with cardioembolic stroke (p value <0.05. The score generated was only associated with the cardioembolic stroke subtype (p value: 0.001 and was replicated in an independent cohort (p value: 0.017. The subjects with the highest score presented a cardioembolic stroke in 92.2% of the cases (p value: 0.002. Conclusion. The genetics of inflammatory markers is more closely associated with cardioembolic strokes than with atherothrombotic or lacunar strokes. The genetic risk scoring system could be useful in the prediction and differentiation of ischemic stroke; however, it might be specific to particular ischemic stroke subtypes.

  15. A single-center study on predicting outcomes of primary androgen deprivation therapy for prostate cancer using the Japan Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (J-CAPRA) score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamaguchi, Yuichiro; Hayashi, Yujiro; Ishizuya, Yu; Takeda, Ken; Nakai, Yasutomo; Arai, Yasuyuki; Nakayama, Masashi; Kakimoto, Ken-ichi; Nishimura, Kazuo

    2015-02-01

    Japan Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment scores are reportedly useful for predicting progression-free survival after primary androgen deprivation therapy of prostate cancer patients. This study validated the risk assessment at a single institution. We studied 255 prostate cancer patients given primary androgen deprivation therapy. Progression-free survival, cause-specific survival and overall survival were analyzed according to Japan Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment score-based risk classification. Cases with lymph node or distant metastases were subdivided by the risk classification. Ages ranged from 50 to 90 years (median: 76.5). Observation periods were 2-199 (median: 46.5) months. Primary androgen deprivation therapy includes combined androgen blockade in 150 cases (58.8%), uncombined luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone agonist in 97 (38.0%) and uncombined anti-androgenic agent in 8 (3.2%). Risk classified by Japan Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment scores was low in 104 cases (40.8%), intermediate in 86 (33.7%) and high in 65 (25.5%). The 5-year/10-year progression-free survival rates were 100%/80.8% in the low-risk, 82.3%/69.5% in the intermediate-risk and 34.7%/16.5% in the high-risk group. The 5-year/10-year cause-specific survival rates were 100%/100% in the low-risk, 90.7%/58.2% in the intermediate-risk and 63%/30.8% in the high-risk group. The 5-year/10-year overall survival rates were 87.5%/78.5% in the low-risk, 76.2%/43.1% in the intermediate-risk and 54.9%/25.4% in the high-risk group. For lymph node metastasis, cause-specific survival differed minimally between the intermediate- and high-risk groups (P = 0.1118). For distant metastasis, cause-specific survival differed significantly between the intermediate- and high-risk groups (P = 0.0264). Japan Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment score-based risk classification is useful for predicting post-primary androgen deprivation therapy progression-free survival, cause-specific survival

  16. Development of a Simple Clinical Risk Score for Early Prediction of Severe Dengue in Adult Patients.

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    Ing-Kit Lee

    Full Text Available We aimed to develop and validate a risk score to aid in the early identification of laboratory-confirmed dengue patients at high risk of severe dengue (SD (i.e. severe plasma leakage with shock or respiratory distress, or severe bleeding or organ impairment. We retrospectively analyzed data of 1184 non-SD patients at hospital presentation and 69 SD patients before SD onset. We fit a logistic regression model using 85% of the population and converted the model coefficients to a numeric risk score. Subsequently, we validated the score using the remaining 15% of patients. Using the derivation cohort, two scoring algorithms for predicting SD were developed: models 1 (dengue illness ≤4 days and 2 (dengue illness >4 days. In model 1, we identified four variables: age ≥65 years, minor gastrointestinal bleeding, leukocytosis, and platelet count ≥100×109 cells/L. Model 1 (ranging from -2 to +6 points showed good discrimination between SD and non-SD, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC of 0.848 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.771-0.924. The optimal cutoff value for model 1 was 1 point, with a sensitivity and specificity for predicting SD of 70.3% and 90.6%, respectively. In model 2 (ranging from 0 to +3 points, significant predictors were age ≥65 years and leukocytosis. Model 2 showed an AUC of 0.859 (95% CI, 0.756-0.963, with an optimal cutoff value of 1 point (sensitivity, 80.3%; specificity, 85.8%. The median interval from hospital presentation to SD was 1 day. This finding underscores the importance of close monitoring, timely resuscitation of shock including intravenous fluid adjustment and early correction of dengue-related complications to prevent the progressive dengue severity. In the validation data, AUCs of 0.904 (95% CI, 0.825-0.983 and 0.917 (95% CI, 0.833-1.0 in models 1 and 2, respectively, were achieved. The observed SD rates (in both cohorts were 50% for those with a score of ≥2 points

  17. Risk scoring systems for adults admitted to the emergency department: a systematic review

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brabrand, Mikkel; Folkestad, Lars; Clausen, Nicola G

    2010-01-01

    , on scoring systems developed to assess medical patients at admission. The primary endpoints were in-hospital mortality or transfer to the intensive care unit. Studies derived for only a single or few diagnoses were excluded. The ability to identify patients at risk (discriminatory power) and agreement......ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Patients referred to a medical admission unit (MAU) represent a broad spectrum of disease severity. In the interest of allocating resources to those who might potentially benefit most from clinical interventions, several scoring systems have been proposed as a triaging tool...... are perfect and all have their weaknesses. More research is needed before the use of scoring systems can be fully implemented to the risk assessment of acutely admitted medical patients....

  18. Autism risk assessment in siblings of affected children using sex-specific genetic scores

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    Carayol Jerome

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The inheritance pattern in most cases of autism is complex. The risk of autism is increased in siblings of children with autism and previous studies have indicated that the level of risk can be further identified by the accumulation of multiple susceptibility single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs allowing for the identification of a higher-risk subgroup among siblings. As a result of the sex difference in the prevalence of autism, we explored the potential for identifying sex-specific autism susceptibility SNPs in siblings of children with autism and the ability to develop a sex-specific risk assessment genetic scoring system. Methods SNPs were chosen from genes known to be associated with autism. These markers were evaluated using an exploratory sample of 480 families from the Autism Genetic Resource Exchange (AGRE repository. A reproducibility index (RI was proposed and calculated in all children with autism and in males and females separately. Differing genetic scoring models were then constructed to develop a sex-specific genetic score model designed to identify individuals with a higher risk of autism. The ability of the genetic scores to identify high-risk children was then evaluated and replicated in an independent sample of 351 affected and 90 unaffected siblings from families with at least 1 child with autism. Results We identified three risk SNPs that had a high RI in males, two SNPs with a high RI in females, and three SNPs with a high RI in both sexes. Using these results, genetic scoring models for males and females were developed which demonstrated a significant association with autism (P = 2.2 × 10-6 and 1.9 × 10-5, respectively. Conclusions Our results demonstrate that individual susceptibility associated SNPs for autism may have important differential sex effects. We also show that a sex-specific risk score based on the presence of multiple susceptibility associated SNPs allow for the identification of

  19. Integrative prognostic risk score in acute myeloid leukemia with normal karyotype

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    F. Damm (Frederik); M. Heuser (Michael); H.M. Morgan (Helen); K. Wagner (Katharina); K. Görlich (Kerstin); A. Großhennig (Anika); I. Hamwi (Iyas); F. Thol (Felicitas); E. Surdziel (Ewa); W. Fiedler (Walter); M. Lübbert (Michael); L. Kanz (Lothar); C. Reuter (Christoph); G. Heil (Gerhard); H.R. Delwel (Ruud); B. Löwenberg (Bob); P.J.M. Valk (Peter); J. Krauter; A. Ganser (Arnold)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractTo integrate available clinical and molecular information for cytogenetically normal acute myeloid leukemia (CN-AML) patients into one risk score, 275 CN-AML patients from multicenter treatment trials AML SHG Hannover 0199 and 0295 and 131 patients from HOVON/SAKK protocols as external c

  20. Prostate cancer staging with extracapsular extension risk scoring using multiparametric MRI: a correlation with histopathology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boesen, Lars; Mikines, Kari [Herlev University Hospital, Department of Urology, Herlev (Denmark); Chabanova, Elizaveta; Loegager, Vibeke; Thomsen, Henrik S. [Herlev University Hospital, Department of Radiology, Herlev (Denmark); Balslev, Ingegerd [Herlev University Hospital, Department of Pathology, Herlev (Denmark)

    2015-06-01

    To evaluate the diagnostic performance of preoperative multiparametric MRI with extracapsular extension (ECE) risk-scoring in the assessment of prostate cancer tumour stage (T-stage) and prediction of ECE at final pathology. Eighty-seven patients with clinically localised prostate cancer scheduled for radical prostatectomy were prospectively enrolled. Multiparametric MRI was performed prior to prostatectomy, and evaluated according to the ESUR MR prostate guidelines by two different readers. An MRI clinical T-stage (cT{sub MRI}), an ECE risk score, and suspicion of ECE based on tumour characteristics and personal opinion were assigned. Histopathological prostatectomy results were standard reference. Histopathology and cT{sub MRI} showed a spearman rho correlation of 0.658 (p < 0.001) and a weighted kappa = 0.585 [CI 0.44;0.73](reader A). ECE was present in 31/87 (36 %) patients. ECE risk-scoring showed an AUC of 0.65-0.86 on ROC-curve for both readers, with sensitivity and specificity of 81 % and 78 % at best cutoff level (reader A), respectively. When tumour characteristics were influenced by personal opinion, the sensitivity and specificity for prediction of ECE changed to 61 %-74 % and 77 %-88 % for the readers, respectively. Multiparametric MRI with ECE risk-scoring is an accurate diagnostic technique in determining prostate cancer clinical tumour stage and ECE at final pathology. (orig.)

  1. Diet Quality Scores and Risk of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma in Chinese Adults: A Case-Control Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Cheng; Lin, Xiao-Ling; Fan, Yu-Ying; Liu, Yuan-Ting; Zhang, Xing-Lan; Lu, Yun-Kai; Xu, Chun-Hua; Chen, Yu-Ming

    2016-02-25

    Many studies show that dietary factors may affect the risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). We examined the association between overall diet quality and NPC risk in a Chinese population. This case-control study included 600 NPC patients and 600 matched controls between 2009 and 2011 in Guangzhou, China. Habitual dietary intake and various covariates were assessed via face-to-face interviews. Diet quality scores were calculated according to the Healthy Eating Index-2005 (HEI-2005), the alternate Healthy Eating Index (aHEI), the Diet Quality Index-International (DQI-I), and the alternate Mediterranean Diet Score (aMed). After adjustment for various lifestyle and dietary factors, greater diet quality scores on the HEI-2005, aHEI, and DQI-I-but not on the aMed-showed a significant association with a lower risk of NPC (p-trends, <0.001-0.001). The odds ratios (95% confidence interval) comparing the extreme quartiles of the three significant scores were 0.47 (0.32-0.68) (HEI-2005), 0.48 (0.33-0.70) (aHEI), and 0.43 (0.30-0.62) (DQI-I). In gender-stratified analyses, the favorable association remained significant in men but not in women. We found that adherence to the predefined dietary patterns represented by the HEI-2005, aHEI, and DQI-I scales predicted a lower risk of NPC in adults from south China, especially in men.

  2. Prediction of individual genetic risk to prostate cancer using a polygenic score

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Szulkin, Robert; Whitington, Thomas; Eklund, Martin

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Polygenic risk scores comprising established susceptibility variants have shown to be informative classifiers for several complex diseases including prostate cancer. For prostate cancer it is unknown if inclusion of genetic markers that have so far not been associated with prostate ca...

  3. Genetic risk scores and number of autoantibodies in patients with rheumatoid arthritis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maehlen, Marthe T.; Olsen, Inge C.; Andreassen, Bettina K.; Viken, Marte K.; Jiang, Xia; Alfredsson, Lars; Kallberg, Henrik; Brynedal, Boel; Kurreeman, Fina; Daha, Nina; Toes, Rene; Zhernakova, Alexandra; Gutierrez-Achury, Javier; de Bakker, Paul I. W.; Martin, Javier; Teruel, Maria; Gonzalez-Gay, Miguel A.; Rodriguez-Rodriguez, Luis; Balsa, Alejandro; Uhlig, Till; Kvien, Tore K.; Lie, Benedicte A.

    2015-01-01

    Objective Certain HLA-DRB1 alleles and single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are associated with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Our objective was to examine the combined effect of these associated variants, calculated as a cumulative genetic risk score (GRS) on RA predisposition, as well as the number

  4. Impact of malnutrition on pediatric risk of mortality score and outcome in Pediatric Intensive Care Unit

    OpenAIRE

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: This study was done to determine the effect of malnutrition on mortality in Pediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU) and on the pediatric risk of mortality (PRISM) scoring. Subjects and Methods: This was a prospective study done over 1 year. There were total 400 patients (1 month 14 years), who were divided into cases with weight for age

  5. A clinical and echocardiographic score for assigning risk of major events after dobutamine echocardiograms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    T. Marwick (Thomas); L. Case (Laura); D. Poldermans (Don); H. Boersma (Eric); J.J. Bax (Jeroen); T. Sawada (Takahiro); J.D. Thomas (James)

    2004-01-01

    textabstractObjectives We sought to develop and validate a risk score combining both clinical and dobutamine echocardiographic (DbE) features in 4,890 patients who underwent DbE at three expert laboratories and were followed for death or myocardial infarction for up to five years. Background In cont

  6. Cardiovascular risk score and cardiovascular events among airline pilots: a case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wirawan, I Made Ady; Larsen, Peter D; Aldington, Sarah; Griffiths, Robin F; Ellis, Chris J

    2012-05-01

    A cardiovascular risk prediction score is routinely applied by aviation authorities worldwide. We examined the accuracy of the Framingham-based risk chart used by the New Zealand Civil Aviation Authority in predicting cardiovascular events among airline pilots. A matched case-control design was applied to assess the association of 5-yr cardiovascular risk score and cardiovascular events in Oceania-based airline pilots. Cases were pilots with cardiovascular events as recorded on their medical records. Each case was age and gender matched with four controls that were randomly selected from the pilot population. To collect data before the events, 5-yr retrospective evaluations were conducted. Over a 16-yr study period we identified 15 cases of cardiovascular events, 9 (60%) of which were sudden clinical presentations and only 6 (40%) of which were detected using cardiovascular screening. There were 8 cases (53%) and 16 controls (27%) who had a 5-yr risk of > or = 10-15%. Almost half of the events (7/15) occurred in pilots whose highest 5-yr risk was in the 5-10% range. Cases were 3.91 times more likely to have highest 5-yr risk score of > or =10-15% than controls (OR = 3.91, 95% CI 1.04-16.35). The accuracy of the highest risk scores were moderate (AUC = 0.723, 95% CI 0.583-0.863). The cutoff point of 10% is valid, with a specificity of 0.73, but low sensitivity (0.53). Despite a valid and appropriate cutoff point, the tool had low sensitivity and was unable to predict almost half of the cardiovascular events.

  7. Calcium scores in the risk assessment of an asymptomatic population: implications for airline pilots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wirawan, I Made Ady; Wu, Rodney; Abernethy, Malcolm; Aldington, Sarah; Larsen, Peter D

    2014-08-01

    This study evaluated whether coronary artery calcium score (CACS) improved cardiovascular disease risk prediction when compared to the New Zealand Cardiovascular Risk Charts (NZ-CRC), and describes the potential utilization of CACS in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment of pilots. A cross-sectional study was performed among asymptomatic patients who underwent coronary computed tomography angiography at Pacific Radiology Wellington, New Zealand, between August 2007 and July 2012 and had their CACS and CVD risk score calculated. Receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) analyses were used to measure the accuracy of the NZ-CRC and CACS. Reclassification analyses were performed to examine the net reclassification improvement (NRI) of CACS when compared to NZ-CRC. Over a 5-yr study period, 237 male asymptomatic patients with ages ranging from 30 to 69 yr with a mean (SD) of 53.24 (8.18) yr, were included. The area under the ROC curves (AUC) (95% CI) for CACS and NZ-CRC were 0.88 (0.83-0.93) and 0.66 (0.59-0.73), respectively. The NRI (95% CI) of the calcium scores was 0.39 (0.17-0.62). CACS should be assessed in pilots with 5-yr CVD risk scores of 5-10% and 10-15%. CACS has a better accuracy than the NZ-CRC and reclassified a considerable proportion of asymptomatic patients into correct cardiovascular risk categories. An approach on how the CACS should be employed in the cardiovascular risk assessment of airline pilots is noted in this paper.

  8. Assessing the Caprini Score for Risk Assessment of Venous Thromboembolism in Hospitalized Medical Patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chopra, Vineet; Bernstein, Steven J.; Hofer, Timothy P.; Flanders, Scott A.

    2017-01-01

    Background The optimal approach to assess risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in hospitalized medical patients is unknown. We examined how well the Caprini risk assessment model (RAM) predicts VTE in hospitalized medical patients. Methods Between January 2011 and March 2014, VTE events and risk factors were collected from non-intensive care unit (ICU) medical patients hospitalized in facilities across Michigan. Following calculation of the Caprini score for each patient, mixed logistic spline regression was used to determine the predicted probabilities of 90-day VTE by receipt of pharmacologic prophylaxis across the Caprini risk continuum. Results A total of 670 (1.05%) of 63,548 eligible patients experienced a VTE event within 90 days of hospital admission. The mean Caprini risk score was 4.94 (range 0 - 28). Predictive modeling revealed a consistent linear increase in VTE for Caprini scores between 1-10; estimates beyond a score of 10 were unstable. Receipt of pharmacologic prophylaxis resulted in a modest decrease in VTE risk (odds ratio=0.85; 95% confidence interval 0.72 - 0.99, p = 0.04). However, the low overall incidence of VTE led to large estimates of numbers needed to treat in order to prevent a single VTE event. A Caprini cut-point demonstrating clear benefit of prophylaxis was not detected. Conclusions Although a linear association between the Caprini RAM and risk of VTE was noted, an extremely low incidence of VTE events in non-ICU medical patients was observed. The Caprini RAM was unable to identify a subset of medical patients who benefit from pharmacologic prophylaxis. PMID:26551977

  9. Development and validation of a postpartum depression risk score in delivered women, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad R Maracy

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Investigators describe a dramatic increase in the incidence of mood disorder after childbirth, with the largest risk in the 90 days after delivery. This study is designed to develop a relatively simple screening tool and validate it from the significant variables associated with postpartum depression (PPD to detect delivered women at high risk of having PPD. Materials and Methods: In the cross-sectional study, 6,627 from a total of 7,300 delivered women, 2-12 months after delivery were recruited and screened for PPD. Split-half validation was used to develop the risk score. The training data set was used to develop the model, and the validation data set was used to validate the developed the risk factors of postpartum depression risk score using multiple logistic regression analysis to compute the β coefficients and odds ratio (OR for the dependent variables associated with possible PPD in this study. Calibration was checked using the Hosmer and Lemeshow test. A score for independent variables contributing to PPD was calculated. Cutoff points using a trade-off between the sensitivity and specificity of risk scores derived from PPD model using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC curve. Results: The predicted and observed PPD were not different (P value = 0.885. The aROC with area under the curve (S.E. of 0.611 (0.008 for predicting PPD using the suggested cut-off point of -0.702, the proportion of participants screening positive for PPD was 70.9% (sensitivity (CI 95%; 69.5, 72.3 while the proportion screening negative was 60.1% (specificity (CI 95%; 58.2, 62.1. Conclusion: Despite of the relatively low sensitivity and specificity in this study, it could be a simple, practical and useful screening tool to identify individual at high risk for PPD in the target population.

  10. Design of a score to identify hospitalized patients at risk of drug-related problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urbina, Olatz; Ferrández, Olivia; Grau, Santiago; Luque, Sonia; Mojal, Sergi; Marin-Casino, Monica; Mateu-de-Antonio, Javier; Carmona, Alexia; Conde-Estévez, David; Espona, Merce; González, Elena; Riu, Marta; Salas, Esther

    2014-09-01

    The potential impact of drug-related problems (DRP) on morbidity and mortality is a serious concern in hospitalized patients. This study aimed to design a risk score to identify patients most at risk of a DRP. Data from patients admitted to a tertiary university hospital between January and August 2009 were used to design the risk score (training set). DRP were detected through a pharmacy warning system integrated in the computerized medical history. The variables associated with developing a DRP were identified through a binary multivariate logistic regression analysis and were used to compute the DRP risk score, which was subsequently validated in patients admitted between September and December 2009 (validation set). Of the 8713 patients included in the training set, at least one DRP was detected in 2425 (27.8%). Prescription of a higher number of drugs, higher comorbidity, advanced age, certain groups of the Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical classification system, and some major diagnostic categories were associated with risk of DRP. These variables were used to compute the DRP risk score. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve was 0.778 (95%CI [0.768, 0.789]). Of the 4058 admissions included in the validation set, at least one DRP was detected in 876 (21.6%). The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve was 0.776 (95%CI [0.759, 0.792]). Knowledge of the variables associated with DRP could aid their early detection in at-risk patients. The use of an application that can be continually updated in daily clinical practice helps to optimize resources. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  11. SBRT for the Primary Treatment of Localized Prostate Cancer: The Effect of Gleason Score, Dose and Heterogeneity of Intermediate risk on Outcome Utilizing 2.2014 NCCN Risk Stratification Guidelines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew eBernetich

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: To report an update of our previous experience using stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT for the primary treatment of prostate cancer, risk stratified by the updated NCCN version 2.2014, reporting efficacy and toxicity in a community hospital setting.Methods: From 2007 to 2012, 142 localized prostate cancer patients were treated with SBRT using CyberKnife. NCCN guidelines Version 2.2014 risk groups analyzed included very low (20%, low (23%, intermediate (35%, and high (22% risk. To further explore group heterogeneity and to comply with new guidelines, we separated our prior intermediate risk group into favorable intermediate and unfavorable intermediate groups depending on how many intermediate risk factors were present (one vs. >one. The unfavorable intermediate group was further analyzed in combination with the high risk group as per NCCN guidelines Version 2.2014.Various dose levels were used over the years of treatment, and have been categorized into low dose (35 Gy, n=5 or 36.25 Gy, n=107 and high dose (37.5 Gy, n=30. All treatments were delivered in five fractions. Toxicity was assessed using Radiation Therapy Oncology Group criteria.Results: 5-year actuarial freedom from biochemical failure (FFBF was 100%, 91.7%, 95.2%, 90.0% and 86.7% for very low, low, intermediate and high risk patients, respectively (NS. A significant difference in 5 year FFBF was noted for patients with Gleason score >8 vs. 7 vs. 5/6 (p=0.03 and low vs. high dose (p=0.05. T-stage, pretreatment PSA, age, risk stratification group and use of ADT did not affect 5-year FFBF. Multivariate analysis revealed Gleason score and dose to be the most predictive factors for 5-year FFBF.Conclusion: Our experience with SBRT for the primary treatment of localized prostate cancer demonstrates favorable efficacy and toxicity comparable to the results reported for IMRT in literature. Gleason score remains the single most important pretreatment predictor of outcome.

  12. Application of a score system to evaluate the risk of malnutrition in a multiple hospital setting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background An increased but unpredictable risk of malnutrition is associated with hospitalization, especially in children with chronic diseases. We investigated the applicability of Screening Tool for Risk of Impaired Nutritional Status and Growth (STRONGkids), an instrument proposed to estimate the risk of malnutrition in hospitalized children. We also evaluated the role of age and co-morbidities as risk for malnutrition. Methods The STRONGkids consists of 4 items providing a score that classifies a patient in low, moderate, high risk for malnutrition. A prospective observational multi-centre study was performed in 12 Italian hospitals. Children 1–18 years consecutively admitted and otherwise unselected were enrolled. Their STRONGkids score was obtained and compared with the actual nutritional status expressed as BMI and Height for Age SD-score. Results Of 144 children (75 males, mean age 6.5 ± 4.5 years), 52 (36%) had an underlying chronic disease. According to STRONGkids, 46 (32%) children were at low risk, 76 (53%) at moderate risk and 22 (15%) at high risk for malnutrition. The latter had significantly lower Height for Age values (mean SD value -1.07 ± 2.08; p = 0.008) and BMI values (mean SD-values -0.79 ± 2.09; p = 0.0021) in comparison to other groups. However, only 29 children were actually malnourished. Conclusions The STRONGkids is easy to administer. It is highly sensitive but not specific. It may be used as a very preliminary screening tool to be integrated with other clinical data in order to reliably predict the risk of malnutrition. PMID:24373709

  13. Walk score and risk of stroke and stroke subtypes among town residents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qureshi, Adnan I; Adil, Malik M; Miller, Zachariah; Suri, Mariam; Rahim, Basit; Gilani, Sarwat I; Gilani, Waqas I

    2014-09-01

    Regular physical activity, including light-to-moderate activity, such as walking, has well-established benefits for reducing the risk of ischemic stroke. It remains unknown, however, whether the characteristics of cities themselves can influence the risk of stroke by promoting such activity. We tested the hypothesis that how walkable a city will be associated with the risk of ischemic stroke in persons residing in that city. We calculated the age-adjusted annual incidence rates of ischemic stroke among residents in each of the 63 cities in Minnesota for which Walk Scores were available using 2011 Minnesota Hospital Association (MHA) data. Walk Score®, an online service, uses an exclusive algorithm to compute a walkability score between 0 and 100 for any location within the United States. The score is calculated based on the distance to amenities in nine categories (grocery, restaurants, shopping, coffee, banks, parks, schools, books, and entertainment) weighed according to their importance. There are 2,910,435 persons residing in the 63 Minnesota cities in our data (average population per town is 46,197). The average Walk Score of the 63 towns in Minnesota was 34, ranging from 14 to 69. The average median age of residents was similar in tertiles of towns based on Walk Score as follows: ≤25 (n=9) 36 years; 26-50 (n=46) 37 years; and 51-100 (n=8) 35 years. The age-adjusted incidence of ischemic stroke was similar in tertiles of towns based on Walk Score as follows: ≤25 (n=9) 341 per 100,000; 26-50 (n=46) 308 per 100,000; and 51-100 (n=8) 330 per 100,000 residents. The correlation between age-adjusted ischemic stroke incidence and Walk Score was low (R (2)=0.09) within Minnesota. The ready availability of indices such as Walk Score make them attractive options for ischemic stroke risk correlation. Despite the lack of relationship in our study, further studies are required to measure the magnitude and health benefits of light-to-moderate activities performed

  14. Population-standardized genetic risk score: the SNP-based method of choice for inherited risk assessment of prostate cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carly A Conran

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Several different approaches are available to clinicians for determining prostate cancer (PCa risk. The clinical validity of various PCa risk assessment methods utilizing single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs has been established; however, these SNP-based methods have not been compared. The objective of this study was to compare the three most commonly used SNP-based methods for PCa risk assessment. Participants were men (n = 1654 enrolled in a prospective study of PCa development. Genotypes of 59 PCa risk-associated SNPs were available in this cohort. Three methods of calculating SNP-based genetic risk scores (GRSs were used for the evaluation of individual disease risk such as risk allele count (GRS-RAC, weighted risk allele count (GRS-wRAC, and population-standardized genetic risk score (GRS-PS. Mean GRSs were calculated, and performances were compared using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC and positive predictive value (PPV. All SNP-based methods were found to be independently associated with PCa (all P 0.05 for comparisons between the three methods, and all three SNP-based methods had a significantly higher AUC than family history (all P < 0.05. Results from this study suggest that while the three most commonly used SNP-based methods performed similarly in discriminating PCa from non-PCa at the population level, GRS-PS is the method of choice for risk assessment at the individual level because its value (where 1.0 represents average population risk can be easily interpreted regardless of the number of risk-associated SNPs used in the calculation.

  15. Diet scores and cardio-metabolic risk factors among Guatemalan young adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory, Cria O.; McCullough, Marjorie L.; Ramirez-Zea, Manuel; Stein, Aryeh D.

    2013-01-01

    We assessed the association of four diet quality scores with multiple cardio-metabolic outcomes among Guatemalan young adults experiencing the nutrition transition. We obtained cross-sectional dietary, demographic, anthropometric and cardio-metabolic risk factor data from 1220 Guatemalan adults (mean age 32·7 (SD 5·8) years) in 2002–4, and computed a Recommended Food Score (RFS), Not Recommended Food Score (NRFS), Food Variety Score (FVS) and the Dietary Quality Index-International (DQI-I). All four scores were correlated with energy intake (r 0·23–0·49; all P4 (women)) and waist circumference (cm; β = 0·02, 95 % CI 0·01, 0·03 (men); β = 0·02, 95 % CI = 0·01, 0·02 (women)). Among men, the RFS was positively associated with TAG (mg/l; β = 0·11, 95 % CI 0·02, 0·21) and glucose (mg/l; β = 0·13: 95 % CI 0·03, 0·22). We conclude that indices of diet quality are not consistently associated with chronic disease risk factor prevalence in this population of Guatemalan young adults. PMID:19025721

  16. Level and change in cognitive test scores predict risk of first stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeFries, Triveni; Avendaño, Mauricio; Glymour, M Maria

    2009-03-01

    To determine whether cognitive test scores and cognitive decline predict incidence of first diagnosed stroke. Stroke-free Health and Retirement Study participants were followed on average 7.6 years for self- or proxy-reported first stroke (1,483 events). Predictors included baseline performance on a modified Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status (Mental Status) and Word Recall test and decline between baseline and second assessment in either measure. Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models for the whole sample and stratified according to five major cardiovascular risk factors. National cohort study of noninstitutionalized adults with a mean baseline age of 64+/-9.9. Health and Retirement Study participants (n=19,699) aged 50 and older. Word Recall (HR for 1 standard deviation difference=0.92, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.86-0.97)) and Mental Status (HR=0.89, 95% CI=0.84-0.95) predicted incident stroke. Mental Status predicted stroke risk in those with (HR=0.93, 95%=0.87-0.99) and without (HR=0.81, 95% CI=0.72-.91) one or more vascular risk factors. Word Recall declines predicted a 16% elevation in subsequent stroke risk (95% CI=1.01-1.34). Declines in Mental Status predicted a 37% elevation in stroke risk (95% CI=1.11-1.70). Cognitive test scores predict future stroke risk, independent of other major vascular risk factors.

  17. Cardiovascular risk prediction in the general population with use of suPAR, CRP, and Framingham Risk Score

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyngbæk, Stig; Marott, Jacob L; Sehestedt, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The inflammatory biomarkers soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) and C-reactive protein (CRP) independently predict cardiovascular disease (CVD). The prognostic implications of suPAR and CRP combined with Framingham Risk Score (FRS) have not been determined. METHODS...... for men (p=0.034) and borderline significant for women (p=0.054), while the integrated discrimination improvement was highly significant (P≤0.001) for both genders. CONCLUSIONS: suPAR provides prognostic information of CVD risk beyond FRS and improves risk prediction substantially when combined with CRP...

  18. Diet scores and cardio-metabolic risk factors among Guatemalan young adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory, Cria O; McCullough, Marjorie L; Ramirez-Zea, Manuel; Stein, Aryeh D

    2009-06-01

    We assessed the association of four diet quality scores with multiple cardio-metabolic outcomes among Guatemalan young adults experiencing the nutrition transition. We obtained cross-sectional dietary, demographic, anthropometric and cardio-metabolic risk factor data from 1220 Guatemalan adults (mean age 32.7 (sd 5.8) years) in 2002-4, and computed a Recommended Food Score (RFS), Not Recommended Food Score (NRFS), Food Variety Score (FVS) and the Dietary Quality Index-International (DQI-I). All four scores were correlated with energy intake (r 0.23-0.49; all P socio-demographic characteristics, lifestyle factors and nutrient intakes. None of the scores was inversely associated with the metabolic syndrome or its components; rather some were positively associated with risk factors. Among both men and women the DQI-I was positively associated with BMI (kg/m2; beta = 0.10, 95 % CI 0.003, 0.21 (men); beta = 0.07, 95 % CI 0.01, 0.14 (women)) and waist circumference (cm; beta = 0.02, 95 % CI 0.01, 0.03 (men); beta = 0.02, 95 % CI = 0.01, 0.02 (women)). Among men, the RFS was positively associated with TAG (mg/l; beta = 0.11, 95 % CI 0.02, 0.21) and glucose (mg/l; beta = 0.13: 95 % CI 0.03, 0.22). We conclude that indices of diet quality are not consistently associated with chronic disease risk factor prevalence in this population of Guatemalan young adults.

  19. An Inflammatory Polymorphisms Risk Scoring System for the Differentiation of Ischemic Stroke Subtypes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muiño, Elena; Krupinski, Jurek; Carrera, Caty; Gallego-Fabrega, Cristina; Montaner, Joan; Fernández-Cadenas, Israel

    2015-01-01

    Inflammation has been associated with atherothrombotic stroke and recently with cardioembolic stroke. Different genetic risk factors have been specifically associated with the subtypes of ischemic stroke (cardioembolic, atherothrombotic, and lacunar). However, there are no studies that have generated genetic risk scores for the different subtypes of ischemic stroke using polymorphisms associated with inflammation. Methods. We have analyzed 68 polymorphisms of 30 inflammatory mediator genes in 2,685 subjects: 1,987 stroke cases and 698 controls. We generated a genetic scoring system with the most significant polymorphisms weighted by the odds ratio of every polymorphism and taken into consideration the stroke subtype. Results. Three polymorphisms, rs1205 (CRP gene), rs1800779, and rs2257073 (NOS3 gene), were associated with cardioembolic stroke (p value stroke subtype (p value: 0.001) and was replicated in an independent cohort (p value: 0.017). The subjects with the highest score presented a cardioembolic stroke in 92.2% of the cases (p value: 0.002). Conclusion. The genetics of inflammatory markers is more closely associated with cardioembolic strokes than with atherothrombotic or lacunar strokes. The genetic risk scoring system could be useful in the prediction and differentiation of ischemic stroke; however, it might be specific to particular ischemic stroke subtypes. PMID:26355258

  20. The New York PTSD Risk Score for Assessment of Psychological Trauma: Male and Female Versions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boscarino, Joseph A.; Kirchner, H. Lester; Hoffman, Stuart N.; Sartorius, Jennifer; Adams, Richard E.; Figley, Charles R.

    2012-01-01

    We previously developed a new posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) screening instrument – the New York PTSD Risk Score (NYPRS). Since research suggests different PTSD risk factors and outcomes for men and women, in the current study we assessed the suitability of male and female versions of this screening instrument among 3,298 adults exposed to traumatic events. Using diagnostic test methods, including receiver operating curve (ROC) and bootstrap techniques, we examined different prediction domains, including core PTSD symptoms, trauma exposures, sleep disturbances, depression symptoms, and other measures to assess PTSD prediction models for men and women. While the original NYPRS worked well in predicting PTSD, significant interaction was detected by gender, suggesting that separate models are warranted for men and women. Model comparisons suggested that while the overall results appeared robust, prediction results differed by gender. For example, for women, core PTSD symptoms contributed more to the prediction score than for men. For men, depression symptoms, sleep disturbance, and trauma exposure contributed more to the prediction score. Men also had higher cut-off scores for PTSD compared to women. There were other gender-specific differences as well. The NYPRS is a screener that appears to be effective in predicting PTSD status among at-risk populations. However, consistent with other medical research, this instrument appears to require male and female versions to be the most effective. PMID:22648009

  1. Prospective comparison of three risk scoring systems in non-variceal and variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thanapirom, Kessarin; Ridtitid, Wiriyaporn; Rerknimitr, Rungsun; Thungsuk, Rattikorn; Noophun, Phadet; Wongjitrat, Chatchawan; Luangjaru, Somchai; Vedkijkul, Padet; Lertkupinit, Comson; Poonsab, Swangphong; Ratanachu-ek, Thawee; Hansomburana, Piyathida; Pornthisarn, Bubpha; Thongbai, Thirada; Mahachai, Varocha; Treeprasertsuk, Sombat

    2016-04-01

    Data regarding the efficacy of the Glasgow Blatchford score (GBS), full Rockall score (FRS) and pre-endoscopic Rockall scores (PRS) in comparing non-variceal and variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) are limited. Our aim was to determine the performance of these three risk scores in predicting the need for treatment, mortality, and re-bleeding among patients with non-variceal and variceal UGIB. During January, 2010 and September, 2011, patients with UGIB from 11 hospitals were prospectively enrolled. The GBS, FRS, and PRS were calculated. Discriminative ability for each score was assessed using the receiver operated characteristics curve (ROC) analysis. A total of 981 patients presented with acute UGIB, 225 patients (22.9%) had variceal UGIB. The areas under the ROC (AUC) of the GBS, FRS, and PRS for predicting the need for treatment were 0.77, 0.69, and 0.61 in non-variceal versus 0.66, 0.66, and 0.59 in variceal UGIB. The AUC for predicting mortality and re-bleeding during admission were 0.66, 0.80, and 0.76 in non-variceal versus 0.63, 0.57, and 0.63 in variceal UGIB. AUC score was not statistically significant for predicting need for therapy and clinical outcome in variceal UGIB. The GBS ≤ 2 and FRS ≤ 1 identified low-risk non-variceal UGIB patients for death and re-bleeding during hospitalization. In contrast to non-variceal UGIB, the GBS, FRS, and PRS were not precise scores for assessing the need for therapy, mortality, and re-bleeding during admission in variceal UGIB. © 2015 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  2. Clinical risk scores predict procedural complications of primary percutaneous coronary intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hadadi, László; Şerban, Razvan Constantin; Scridon, Alina; Şuş, Ioana; Lakatos, Éva Katalin; Demjén, Zoltán; Dobreanu, Dan

    2017-04-01

    The predictive value of five risk score models containing clinical (PAMI-PMS, GRACE-GRS, and modified ACEF-ACEFm-scores), angiographic SYNTAX score (SXS) and combined Clinical SYNTAX score (CSS) variables were evaluated for the incidence of three procedural complications of primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI): iatrogenic coronary artery dissection, angiographically visible distal embolization and angiographic no-reflow phenomenon. The mentioned scores and the incidence of procedural complications were retrospectively analyzed in 399 consecutive patients with acute ST-elevation myocardial infarction who underwent pPCI. Coronary dissection, distal embolization and no-reflow occurred in 39 (9.77%), 71 (17.79%), and 108 (27.07%) subjects, respectively. Coronary dissections were significantly associated with higher GRS, ACEFm, and CSS values (all p<0.05). PMS, GRS, ACEFm, and CSS were significantly higher in patients with no-reflow (all p<0.05), while distal embolization was not predicted by any of the calculated scores. In multiple logistic regression models, GRS and ACEFm remained independent predictors of both coronary dissections (OR 3.20, 95% CI 1.56-6.54, p<0.01 and OR 2.87, 95% CI 1.27-6.45, p=0.01, respectively) and no-reflow (OR 1.71, 95% CI 1.04-2.82, p=0.03 and OR 1.86, 95% CI 1.10-3.14, p=0.01, respectively). Whereas SXS failed to predict procedural complications related to pPCI, two simple, noninvasive risk models, GRS and ACEFm, independently predicted coronary dissections and no-reflow. Pre-interventional assessment of these scores may help the interventional cardiologist to prepare for procedural complications during pPCI.

  3. Clinicoradiological score for predicting the risk of strangulated small bowel obstruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwenter, F; Poletti, P A; Platon, A; Perneger, T; Morel, P; Gervaz, P

    2010-07-01

    Intestinal ischaemia as a result of small bowel obstruction (SBO) requires prompt recognition and early intervention. A clinicoradiological score was sought to predict the risk of ischaemia in patients with SBO. A clinico-radiological protocol for the assessment of patients presenting with SBO was used. A logistic regression model was applied to identify determinant variables and construct a clinical score that would predict ischaemia requiring resection. Of 233 consecutive patients with SBO, 138 required laparotomy of whom 45 underwent intestinal resection. In multivariable analysis, six variables correlated with small bowel resection and were given one point each towards the clinical score: history of pain lasting 4 days or more, guarding, C-reactive protein level at least 75 mg/l, leucocyte count 10 x 10(9)/l or greater, free intraperitoneal fluid volume at least 500 ml on computed tomography (CT) and reduction of CT small bowel wall contrast enhancement. The risk of intestinal ischaemia was 6 per cent in patients with a score of 1 or less, whereas 21 of 29 patients with a score of 3 or more underwent small bowel resection. A positive score of 3 or more had a sensitivity of 67.7 per cent and specificity 90.8 per cent; the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.87 (95 per cent confidence interval 0.79 to 0.95). By combining clinical, laboratory and radiological parameters, the clinical score allowed early identification of strangulated SBO. Copyright (c) 2010 British Journal of Surgery Society Ltd. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. The value of the CHA2DS2-VASc score for refining stroke risk stratification in patients with atrial fibrillation with a CHADS2 score 0-1

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olesen, Jonas Bjerring; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Hansen, Morten Lock

    2012-01-01

    -level-linkage of nationwide Danish registries 1997-2008, we identified patients discharged with AF having a CHADS2 score of 0-1 and not treated with vitamin K antagonist or heparin. In patients with a CHADS2 score of 0, 1, and 0-1, rates of stroke/ thromboembolism were determined according to CHA2DS2-VASc score, and the risk...... associated with increasing CHA2DS2-VASc score was estimated in Cox regression models adjusted for year of inclusion and antiplatelet therapy. The value of adding the extra CHA2DS2-VASc risk factors to the CHADS2 score was evaluated by c-statistics, Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI) and Integrated....... Of the cohort with a CHADS2 score of 0-1, the stroke/thromboembolism rate per 100 person-years increased with increasing CHA2DS2-VASc score (95% confidence interval): 0.84 (0.65-1.08), 1.79 (1.53-2.09), 3.67 (3.34-4.03), 5.75 (5.33-6.21), and 8.18 (6.68-10.02) at one year follow-up with CHA2DS2-VASc scores of 0...

  5. Influence of Polygenic Risk Scores on the Association Between Infections and Schizophrenia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Benros, Michael E; Trabjerg, Betina B; Meier, Sandra

    2016-01-01

    affect the risk of acquiring infections among patients with schizophrenia (odds ratio = 1.00; 95% CI = 0.89-1.12) nor among controls (odds ratio = 1.09; 95% CI: 0.96-1.24). CONCLUSIONS: PRS and a history of infections have independent effects on the risk for schizophrenia, and the common genetic risk......BACKGROUND: Several studies have suggested an important role of infections in the etiology of schizophrenia; however, shared genetic liability toward infections and schizophrenia could influence the association. We therefore investigated the possible effect of polygenic risk scores (PRSs......) for schizophrenia on the association between infections and the risk of schizophrenia. METHODS: We conducted a nested case-control study on a Danish population-based sample born after 1981 comprising of 1692 cases diagnosed with schizophrenia between 1994 and 2008 and 1724 matched controls. All individuals were...

  6. What does my patient's coronary artery calcium score mean? Combining information from the coronary artery calcium score with information from conventional risk factors to estimate coronary heart disease risk

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    Pletcher Mark J

    2004-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The coronary artery calcium (CAC score is an independent predictor of coronary heart disease. We sought to combine information from the CAC score with information from conventional cardiac risk factors to produce post-test risk estimates, and to determine whether the score may add clinically useful information. Methods We measured the independent cross-sectional associations between conventional cardiac risk factors and the CAC score among asymptomatic persons referred for non-contrast electron beam computed tomography. Using the resulting multivariable models and published CAC score-specific relative risk estimates, we estimated post-test coronary heart disease risk in a number of different scenarios. Results Among 9341 asymptomatic study participants (age 35–88 years, 40% female, we found that conventional coronary heart disease risk factors including age, male sex, self-reported hypertension, diabetes and high cholesterol were independent predictors of the CAC score, and we used the resulting multivariable models for predicting post-test risk in a variety of scenarios. Our models predicted, for example, that a 60-year-old non-smoking non-diabetic women with hypertension and high cholesterol would have a 47% chance of having a CAC score of zero, reducing her 10-year risk estimate from 15% (per Framingham to 6–9%; if her score were over 100, however (a 17% chance, her risk estimate would be markedly higher (25–51% in 10 years. In low risk scenarios, the CAC score is very likely to be zero or low, and unlikely to change management. Conclusion Combining information from the CAC score with information from conventional risk factors can change assessment of coronary heart disease risk to an extent that may be clinically important, especially when the pre-test 10-year risk estimate is intermediate. The attached spreadsheet makes these calculations easy.

  7. Mental Health in Low-to-Moderate Risk Preterm, Low Birth Weight, and Small for Gestational Age Children at 4 to 5 Years: The Role of Early Maternal Parenting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westrupp, Elizabeth M.; Mensah, Fiona K.; Giallo, Rebecca; Cooklin, Amanda; Nicholson, Jan M.

    2012-01-01

    Objectives: The majority of children born preterm, with low birth weight, or small for gestational age are born with low-to-moderate risk (LTM), yet most research focuses on the high-risk group. Little is known about whether children with LTM perinatal risk are at greater risk for mental health problems, or what the role of early maternal…

  8. A clinically useful risk-score for chronic kidney disease in HIV infection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amanda Mocroft

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Development of a simple, widely applicable risk score for chronic kidney disease (CKD allows comparisons of risks or benefits of starting potentially nephrotoxic antiretrovirals (ARVs as part of a treatment regimen. Materials and Methods: A total of 18,055 HIV-positive persons from the Data on Adverse Drugs (D:A:D study with >3 estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFRs >1/1/2004 were included. Persons with use of tenofovir (TDF, atazanavir (ritonavir boosted (ATV/r and unboosted (ATV, lopinavir (LPV/r and other boosted protease inhibitors (bPIs before baseline (first eGFR >60 ml/min/1.73 m2 after 1/1/2004 were excluded. CKD was defined as confirmed (>3 months apart eGFR 5 points risk of developing CKD. Increased incidence of CKD associated with starting ARVs was modelled by including ARVs as time-updated variables. The risk score was externally validated on two independent cohorts. Results: A total of 641 persons developed CKD during 103,278.5 PYFU (incidence 6.2/1000 PYFU, 95% CI 5.7–6.7. Older age, intravenous drug use, HCV+ antibody status, lower baseline eGFR, female gender, lower CD4 nadir, hypertension, diabetes and cardiovascular disease predicted CKD and were included in the risk score (Figure 1. The incidence of CKD in those at low, medium and high risk was 0.8/1000 PYFU (95% CI 0.6–1.0, 5.6 (95% CI 4.5–6.7 and 37.4 (95% CI 34.0–40.7 (Figure 1. The risk score showed good discrimination (Harrell's c statistic 0.92, 95% CI 0.90–0.93. The number needed to harm (NNTH in patients starting ATV or LPV/r was 1395, 142 or 20, respectively, among those with low, medium or high risk. NNTH were 603, 61 and 9 for those with a low, medium or high risk starting TDF, ATV/r or bPIs. The risk score was externally validated on 2603 persons from the Royal Free Hospital clinic cohort (94 events, incidence 5.1/1000 PYFU; 95% CI 4.1–6.1 and 2013 persons from the control arms of SMART/ESPRIT (32 events, incidence 3.8/1000 PYFU

  9. Analysis of Surgical Site Infection after Musculoskeletal Tumor Surgery: Risk Assessment Using a New Scoring System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satoshi Nagano

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Surgical site infection (SSI has not been extensively studied in musculoskeletal tumors (MST owing to the rarity of the disease. We analyzed incidence and risk factors of SSI in MST. SSI incidence was evaluated in consecutive 457 MST cases (benign, 310 cases and malignant, 147 cases treated at our institution. A detailed analysis of the clinical background of the patients, pre- and postoperative hematological data, and other factors that might be associated with SSI incidence was performed for malignant MST cases. SSI occurred in 0.32% and 12.2% of benign and malignant MST cases, respectively. The duration of the surgery (P=0.0002 and intraoperative blood loss (P=0.0005 was significantly more in the SSI group than in the non-SSI group. We established the musculoskeletal oncological surgery invasiveness (MOSI index by combining 4 risk factors (blood loss, operation duration, preoperative chemotherapy, and the use of artificial materials. The MOSI index (0–4 points score significantly correlated with the risk of SSI, as demonstrated by an SSI incidence of 38.5% in the group with a high score (3-4 points. The MOSI index score and laboratory data at 1 week after surgery could facilitate risk evaluation and prompt diagnosis of SSI.

  10. The risk predictive values of UK-PBC and GLOBE scoring system in Chinese patients with primary biliary cholangitis: the additional effect of anti-gp210.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, F; Yang, Y; Wang, Q; Wang, Z; Miao, Q; Xiao, X; Wei, Y; Bian, Z; Sheng, L; Chen, X; Qiu, D; Fang, J; Tang, R; Gershwin, M E; Ma, X

    2017-03-01

    Adequate risk stratification is critical for the management of the patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). The UK-PBC and GLOBE scoring systems for prognosis of PBC have been proposed recently, but have not been validated in Asian population. To validate the UK-PBC and GLOBE scoring systems in Chinese patients for prognosis of PBC. To clarify the role of anti-gp210 as a biomarker, and to investigate whether anti-gp210 could affect the prognostic values of UK-PBC and GLOBE scoring systems. We retrospectively analysed 276 patients with PBC evaluated between September 2004 and May 2016, including 133 anti-gp210+ and 143 anti-gp210- patients. The 5-year adverse outcome-free survivals of anti-gp210+ vs. anti-gp210- patients were 70% and 85%, respectively (P = 0.005). Cirrhosis (P = 0.001), albumin level ≤40 g/L (P = 0.011) and platelet count ≤153 × 10(9) (P GLOBE scores. For UK-PBC scoring system, the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was 0.924 for all patients with PBC (n = 223), 0.940 for anti-gp210+ patients (n = 110) and 0.888 for anti-gp210- patients (n = 113). For GLOBE scoring system, the area under receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.901 for all patients with PBC (n = 223), 0.924 for anti-gp210+ patients (n = 110) and 0.848 for anti-gp210- patients (n = 113). UK-PBC score >0.0578 (P GLOBE score GLOBE scoring systems were good 5-year prognostic predictors in Chinese patients with PBC, especially in anti-gp210+ patients. As a biomarker, anti-gp210 antibody was associated with a more severe cholestatic manifestation and a worse long-term prognosis. The anti-gp210 antibody could be added to further optimise the UK-PBC and GLOBE scoring systems. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Framingham coronary heart disease risk score can be predicted from structural brain images in elderly subjects.

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    Jane Maryam Rondina

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Recent literature has presented evidence that cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF play an important role on cognitive performance in elderly individuals, both those who are asymptomatic and those who suffer from symptoms of neurodegenerative disorders. Findings from studies applying neuroimaging methods have increasingly reinforced such notion. Studies addressing the impact of CVRF on brain anatomy changes have gained increasing importance, as recent papers have reported gray matter loss predominantly in regions traditionally affected in Alzheimer’s disease (AD and vascular dementia in the presence of a high degree of cardiovascular risk. In the present paper, we explore the association between CVRF and brain changes using pattern recognition techniques applied to structural MRI and the Framingham score (a composite measure of cardiovascular risk largely used in epidemiological studies in a sample of healthy elderly individuals. We aim to answer the following questions: Is it possible to decode (i.e., to learn information regarding cardiovascular risk from structural brain images enabling individual predictions? Among clinical measures comprising the Framingham score, are there particular risk factors that stand as more predictable from patterns of brain changes? Our main findings are threefold: i we verified that structural changes in spatially distributed patterns in the brain enable statistically significant prediction of Framingham scores. This result is still significant when controlling for the presence of the APOE 4 allele (an important genetic risk factor for both AD and cardiovascular disease. ii When considering each risk factor singly, we found different levels of correlation between real and predicted factors; however, single factors were not significantly predictable from brain images when considering APOE4 allele presence as covariate. iii We found important gender differences, and the possible causes of that finding are discussed.

  12. A metabolic syndrome severity score: A tool to quantify cardio-metabolic risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiley, Joshua F; Carrington, Melinda J

    2016-07-01

    Metabolic syndrome is a cluster of cardio-metabolic risk factors and is associated with increased mortality. There is no standard, validated way to assess the severity of aggregated metabolic syndrome risk factors. Cardiovascular and diabetes risk factor data came from two studies conducted in Australia from 2006 to 2010 in adults aged 18 or above. In medication free adults, sex-specific clinical thresholds and Principal Component Analysis were used to develop a formula to calculate a metabolic syndrome severity score (MetSSS). These scores were compared to scores derived using the same process in subgroups by sex, age, medication status, and time. We also examined the MetSSS in relation to other known risk factors. In 2125 adults (57.6±14.7years of age), the MetSSS ranged from 0 to 8.7 with a mean of 2.6. There were strong correlations (.95-.99) between the MetSSS in medication free adults and the MetSSS calculated from subgroups. MetSSS predicted medication initiation for hypertension, hyperlipidemia and hyperglycemia over six months (OR=1.31, 95% CI [1.00-1.70], per MetSSS unit, p=.043). Lower education, medication prescription, history of smoking and age were associated with higher MetSSS (all p<.05). Higher physical but not mental health quality of life was associated with lower MetSSS (p<.001). A standardized formula to measure cardio-metabolic risk factor severity was constructed and demonstrated expected relations with known risk factors. The use of the MetSSS is recommended as a measure of change within individuals in cardio-metabolic risk factors and to guide treatment and management.

  13. Predicting high risk of exacerbations in bronchiectasis: the E-FACED score

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez-Garcia, MA; Athanazio, RA; Girón, R; Máiz-Carro, L; de la Rosa, D; Olveira, C; de Gracia, J; Vendrell, M; Prados-Sánchez, C; Gramblicka, G; Corso Pereira, M; Lundgren, FL; Fernandes De Figueiredo, M; Arancibia, F; Rached, SZ

    2017-01-01

    Background Although the FACED score has demonstrated a great prognostic capacity in bronchiectasis, it does not include the number or severity of exacerbations as a separate variable, which is important in the natural history of these patients. Objective Construction and external validation of a new index, the E-FACED, to evaluate the predictive capacity of exacerbations and mortality. Methods The new score was constructed on the basis of the complete cohort for the construction of the original FACED score, while the external validation was undertaken with six cohorts from three countries (Brazil, Argentina, and Chile). The main outcome was the number of annual exacerbations/hospitalizations, with all-cause and respiratory-related deaths as the secondary outcomes. A statistical evaluation comprised the relative weight and ideal cut-off point for the number or severity of the exacerbations and was incorporated into the FACED score (E-FACED). The results obtained after the application of FACED and E-FACED were compared in both the cohorts. Results A total of 1,470 patients with bronchiectasis (819 from the construction cohorts and 651 from the external validation cohorts) were followed up for 5 years after diagnosis. The best cut-off point was at least two exacerbations in the previous year (two additional points), meaning that the E-FACED has nine points of growing severity. E-FACED presented an excellent prognostic capacity for exacerbations (areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.82 for at least two exacerbations in 1 year and 0.87 for at least one hospitalization in 1 year) that was statistically better than that of the FACED score (0.72 and 0.78, P<0.05, respectively). The predictive capacities for all-cause and respiratory mortality were 0.87 and 0.86, respectively, with both being similar to those of the FACED. Conclusion E-FACED score significantly increases the FACED capacity to predict future yearly exacerbations while maintaining the

  14. Alimentary Habits, Physical Activity, and Framingham Global Risk Score in Metabolic Syndrome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soares, Thays Soliman; Piovesan, Carla Haas; Gustavo, Andréia da Silva; Macagnan, Fabrício Edler; Bodanese, Luiz Carlos; Feoli, Ana Maria Pandolfo, E-mail: anamariafeoli@hotmail.com [Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio Grande do Sul (PUCRS), Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil)

    2014-04-15

    Metabolic syndrome is a complex disorder represented by a set of cardiovascular risk factors. A healthy lifestyle is strongly related to improve Quality of Life and interfere positively in the control of risk factors presented in this condition. To evaluate the effect of a program of lifestyle modification on the Framingham General Cardiovascular Risk Profile in subjects diagnosed with metabolic syndrome. A sub-analysis study of a randomized clinical trial controlled blind that lasted three months. Participants were randomized into four groups: dietary intervention + placebo (DIP), dietary intervention + supplementation of omega 3 (fish oil 3 g/day) (DIS3), dietary intervention + placebo + physical activity (DIPE) and dietary intervention + physical activity + supplementation of omega 3 (DIS3PE). The general cardiovascular risk profile of each individual was calculated before and after the intervention. The study included 70 subjects. Evaluating the score between the pre and post intervention yielded a significant value (p < 0.001). We obtained a reduction for intermediate risk in 25.7% of subjects. After intervention, there was a significant reduction (p < 0.01) on cardiovascular age, this being more significant in groups DIP (5.2%) and DIPE (5.3%). Proposed interventions produced beneficial effects for reducing cardiovascular risk score. This study emphasizes the importance of lifestyle modification in the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular diseases.

  15. Risk score modeling of multiple gene to gene interactions using aggregated-multifactor dimensionality reduction

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    Dai Hongying

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (MDR has been widely applied to detect gene-gene (GxG interactions associated with complex diseases. Existing MDR methods summarize disease risk by a dichotomous predisposing model (high-risk/low-risk from one optimal GxG interaction, which does not take the accumulated effects from multiple GxG interactions into account. Results We propose an Aggregated-Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (A-MDR method that exhaustively searches for and detects significant GxG interactions to generate an epistasis enriched gene network. An aggregated epistasis enriched risk score, which takes into account multiple GxG interactions simultaneously, replaces the dichotomous predisposing risk variable and provides higher resolution in the quantification of disease susceptibility. We evaluate this new A-MDR approach in a broad range of simulations. Also, we present the results of an application of the A-MDR method to a data set derived from Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis patients treated with methotrexate (MTX that revealed several GxG interactions in the folate pathway that were associated with treatment response. The epistasis enriched risk score that pooled information from 82 significant GxG interactions distinguished MTX responders from non-responders with 82% accuracy. Conclusions The proposed A-MDR is innovative in the MDR framework to investigate aggregated effects among GxG interactions. New measures (pOR, pRR and pChi are proposed to detect multiple GxG interactions.

  16. Genetic risk score and acute skin toxicity after breast radiation therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borghini, Andrea; Vecoli, Cecilia; Mercuri, Antonella; Petruzzelli, Maria Fonte; D'Errico, Maria Patrizia; Portaluri, Maurizio; Andreassi, Maria Grazia

    2014-09-01

    Genetic predisposition has been shown to affect the severity of skin complications in breast cancer patients after radiotherapy. Limited data exist regarding the use of a genetic risk score (GRS) for predicting risk of tissue radiosensitivity. We evaluated the impact of different single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in genes related to DNA repair mechanisms and oxidative stress response combined in a GRS on acute adverse effects induced by breast radiation therapy (RT). Skin toxicity was scored according to the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) criteria in 59 breast cancer patients who received RT. After genotyping, a multilocus GRS was constructed by summing the number of risk alleles. The hazard ratio (HR) for GSTM1 was 2.4 (95% confidence intervals [CI]=1.1-5.3, p=0.04). The other polymorphisms were associated to an increased adverse radiosensitivity, although they did not reach statistical significance. GRS predicted roughly 40% risk for acute skin toxicity per risk allele (HR 1.37, 95% CI=1.1-1.76, pskin reaction (HR 5.1, 95% CI=1.2-22.8, p=0.03). Our findings demonstrate that the joint effect of SNPs from oxidative stress and DNA damage repair genes may be a promising approach to identify patients with a high risk of skin reaction after breast RT.

  17. Automated texture scoring for assessing breast cancer masking risk in full field digital mammography

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kallenberg, Michiel Gijsbertus J; Petersen, Kersten; Lilholm, Martin;

    validation. To assess the independency of the texture scores of breast density, density was determined for each image using Volpara. RESULTS: The odds ratios for interval cancer were 1.59 (95%CI: 0.76-3.32), 2.07 (1.02-4.20), and 3.14 (1.60-6.17) for quartile 2, 3 and 4 respectively, relative to quartile 1....... Correlation between the texture scores and breast density was 0.59 (0.52-0.64). Breast density adjusted odds ratios, as determined with logistic regression, were 1.49 (0.71-3.13), 1.58 (0.75-3.33), and 1.97 (0.91-4.27). CONCLUSIONS: The CSAE texture score is independently associated with the risk of having...

  18. Predicting PTSD using the New York Risk Score with genotype data: potential clinical and research opportunities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boscarino JA

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Joseph A Boscarino,1,2 H Lester Kirchner,3,4 Stuart N Hoffman,5 Porat M Erlich1,4 1Center for Health Research, Geisinger Clinic, Danville, 2Department of Psychiatry, Temple University School of Medicine, Philadelphia, 3Division of Medicine, Geisinger Clinic, Danville, 4Department of Medicine, Temple University School of Medicine, Philadelphia, 5Department of Neurology, Geisinger Clinic, Danville, PA, USA Background: We previously developed a post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD screening instrument, ie, the New York PTSD Risk Score (NYPRS, that was effective in predicting PTSD. In the present study, we assessed a version of this risk score that also included genetic information. Methods: Utilizing diagnostic testing methods, we hierarchically examined different prediction variables identified in previous NYPRS research, including genetic risk-allele information, to assess lifetime and current PTSD status among a population of trauma-exposed adults. Results: We found that, in predicting lifetime PTSD, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC for the Primary Care PTSD Screen alone was 0.865. When we added psychosocial predictors from the original NYPRS to the model, including depression, sleep disturbance, and a measure of health care access, the AUC increased to 0.902, which was a significant improvement (P = 0.0021. When genetic information was added in the form of a count of PTSD risk alleles located within FKBP, COMT, CHRNA5, and CRHR1 genetic loci (coded 0–6, the AUC increased to 0.920, which was also a significant improvement (P = 0.0178. The results for current PTSD were similar. In the final model for current PTSD with the psychosocial risk factors included, genotype resulted in a prediction weight of 17 for each risk allele present, indicating that a person with six risk alleles or more would receive a PTSD risk score of 17 × 6 = 102, the highest risk score for any of the predictors studied. Conclusion: Genetic

  19. Relationship between sleep duration and Framingham cardiovascular risk score and prevalence of cardiovascular disease in Koreans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Im, Eui; Kim, Gwang-Sil

    2017-09-01

    Studies have shown sleep duration to be related to the prevalence of metabolic syndrome and hypertension. However, whether sleep duration is associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and the prevalence of CVD irrespective of conventional CV-risk factor, such as diabetes mellitus, obesity, and metabolic syndrome, has not been well established for the Korean population.A total of 23,878 individuals aged 18 years or older from the 2007-2010 Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were analyzed. We evaluated the relationship between sleep duration and CV-event risk using the Framingham Cardiovascular Risk Score (FRS; ≥10% or ≥20%) and the prevalence of CVD.After adjusting for traditional risk factors of CVD, a short sleep duration (≤5 hours) yielded odds ratios (OR) of 1.344 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.200-1.505) for intermediate to high risk and 1.357 (95% CI, 1.140-1.614) for high risk. A long sleep duration (≥9 hours) was also associated with both intermediate to high (OR 1.142, 95% CI 1.011-1.322) and high cardiovascular FRS (OR 1.276, 95% CI 1.118-1.457).Both short and long sleep durations were related with high CVD risk, irrespective of established CVD risk, and a short sleep duration was associated with a higher prevalence of CVD than an optimal or long sleep duration.

  20. The framingham risk score, diet, and inflammatory markers in Korean men with metabolic syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohn, Cheongmin; Kim, Juyong; Bae, Wookyung

    2012-06-01

    The Framingham risk score (FRS) has been used to assess the risk of a cardiovascular event and to identify patients for risk factor modifications. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the relationship of the FRS with dietary intake and inflammatory biomarkers. We conducted a cross-sectional study of 180 men (49.2 ± 10.2 years) with MS. Serum levels of high sensitive C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and adiponectin were examined. Participants were asked to complete the food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) using the previous 1 year as a reference point. The absolute cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk percentage over 10 years was calculated to estimate the FRS, which was classified as low risk (risk (10-20%), and high risk (> 20%). Mean intake of polyunsaturated fatty acids was lower in subjects who had > 20% FRS than in subjects who had Nutritional Quality of protein, phosphorus, iron, vitamin A, vitamin B(1), niacin, vitamin B(6), and vitamin C were observed between the > 20% FRS group and the 20% FRS (0.91 ± 0.26 vs. 1.48 ± 033 vs. 2.72 ± 0.57 pg/mL, respectively; P risk group was inferior to that in the lower risk group and that dietary fat intake and IL-6 were associated with FRS and MS in Korean men.

  1. Global cardiovascular risk stratification: comparison of the Framingham method with the SCORE method in the Mexican population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alcocer, Luis Antonio; Lozada, Osvaldo; Fanghänel, Guillermo; Sánchez-Reyes, Leticia; Campos-Franco, Enrique

    2011-01-01

    In the Mexican population we are unaware if the Framingham model is a better system than the SCORE system for stratifying cardiovascular risk. The present study was conducted to compare risk stratification with the Framingham tables using the same procedure but using the SCORE, with the aim of recommending the use of the most appropriate method. We analyzed a database of apparently healthy workers from the Mexico City General Hospital included in the study group "PRIT" (Prevalencia de Factores de Riesgo de Infarto del Miocardio en Trabajadores del Hospital General de México) and we calculated the risk in each simultaneously with the Framingham method and the SCORE method. It was possible to perform risk calculation with both methods in 1990 subjects from a total of 5803 PRITHGM study participants. When using the SCORE method, we stratified 1853 patients into low risk, 133 into medium risk and 4 into high risk. The Framingham method qualified 1586 subjects as low risk, 268 as medium risk and 130 as high risk. Concordance between scales to classify both patients according to the same risk was 98% in those classified as low risk, 19.4% among those classified as intermediate risk and only 3% in those classified as high risk. According to our results, it seems more appropriate in our country to recommend the Framingham model for calculating cardiovascular risk due to the fact that the SCORE model underestimated risk.

  2. Risk stratification scores for predicting mortality in coronary artery bypass surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baretti, R; Pannek, N; Knecht, J-P; Krabatsch, T; Hübler, S; Hetzer, R

    2002-08-01

    Four risk-stratification scores (RSSs - Euro, French, CCS/Higgins, Parsonnet) were tested as predictors of mortality in coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) surgery. From March to April 2000, the perioperative courses of 245 consecutive CABG patients were compared to the predictions according to the RSSs. Sensitivity and specificity were determined with receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves. CCS/Higgins uses the most easily acquired patient data, and rates emergency conditions as high-risk. Euro focuses on advanced age and septal rupture. French uses the smallest number of patient parameters and rates rare critical situations as high-risk. Parsonnet is partially based on the physician's subjective assessment of a "catastrophic state," making the scoring arbitrary. All RSSs gave similar (not significant) areas under the ROC curves regarding mortality (Euro 0.826 +/- 0.080, French 0.783 +/- 0.094, CCS/Higgins 0.820 +/- 0.060, Parsonnet 0.831 +/- 0.042). Predicted risk levels for the 11 patients who died differed between the RSSs--Higgins placed these patients in 3 of 5 risk levels with ascending distribution. The other RSSs placed these patients in the highest risk level except for one and two patients, respectively, who were placed in the lowest Euro and French risk level. Euro and Parsonnet placed about half of all patients with non-lethal outcome in the highest risk level. All RSSs satisfactorily estimated the group risk for mortality. No RSS expressed sufficient validity to predict individuals with lethal outcome. In clinical use, CCS/Higgins proved the most practicable.

  3. Risk factors of incomplete Apgar score and umbilical cord blood gas analysis: a retrospective observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Tetering, Anne A C; van de Ven, Joost; Fransen, Annemarie F; Dieleman, Jeanne P; van Runnard Heimel, Pieter J; Oei, S Guid

    2017-11-01

    To investigate whether incomplete umbilical cord blood gas (UCBG) analysis occurs more often than the incomplete reporting of the Apgar score, and risk factors associated with the incomplete values. A total of 8824 infants born alive after 26 weeks' gestation between January 2009 and April 2013 were included. We extracted data on five-minute Apgar score, UCBG analysis, gestational age, mode of delivery, time of delivery and multiple pregnancy. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed. Five-minute Apgar score was incomplete in 15 cases (0.2%) and UCBG analysis in 1960 cases (22.2%), p < 0.05. Incomplete UCBG analysis was significantly more likely to occur in situations with Apgar score below seven (Odds ratio (OR) 1.68, 95% CI;1.29-2.19), gestational age between 26 to 27 6/7 and 28 to 31 6/7 weeks (OR 3.14, 95% CI; 2.13-4.62 and OR 1.91, 95% CI; 1.57-2.32), cesarean section (OR 1.31, 95% CI; 1.11-1.55), and multiple pregnancy (OR 2.02, 95% CI; 1.69-2.43). Deliveries during night time had a lower risk of incomplete UCBG analysis (OR 0.78, 95% CI; 0.69-0.88). Measuring five-minute Apgar score generated less incomplete data compared with UCBG analysis. The risk factors associated with incomplete UCBG analysis were noted. Study outcomes with UCBG analysis as neonatal assessment tool should be interpreted with caution.

  4. Risk prediction score for severe high altitude illness: a cohort study.

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    Florence Canouï-Poitrine

    Full Text Available Risk prediction of acute mountain sickness, high altitude (HA pulmonary or cerebral edema is currently based on clinical assessment. Our objective was to develop a risk prediction score of Severe High Altitude Illness (SHAI combining clinical and physiological factors. Study population was 1017 sea-level subjects who performed a hypoxia exercise test before a stay at HA. The outcome was the occurrence of SHAI during HA exposure. Two scores were built, according to the presence (PRE, n = 537 or absence (ABS, n = 480 of previous experience at HA, using multivariate logistic regression. Calibration was evaluated by Hosmer-Lemeshow chisquare test and discrimination by Area Under ROC Curve (AUC and Net Reclassification Index (NRI.The score was a linear combination of history of SHAI, ventilatory and cardiac response to hypoxia at exercise, speed of ascent, desaturation during hypoxic exercise, history of migraine, geographical location, female sex, age under 46 and regular physical activity. In the PRE/ABS groups, the score ranged from 0 to 12/10, a cut-off of 5/5.5 gave a sensitivity of 87%/87% and a specificity of 82%/73%. Adding physiological variables via the hypoxic exercise test improved the discrimination ability of the models: AUC increased by 7% to 0.91 (95%CI: 0.87-0.93 and 17% to 0.89 (95%CI: 0.85-0.91, NRI was 30% and 54% in the PRE and ABS groups respectively. A score computed with ten clinical, environmental and physiological factors accurately predicted the risk of SHAI in a large cohort of sea-level residents visiting HA regions.

  5. Prostate cancer staging with extracapsular extension risk scoring using multiparametric MRI

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boesen, Lars; Chabanova, Elizaveta; Løgager, Vibeke

    2015-01-01

    based on tumour characteristics and personal opinion were assigned. Histopathological prostatectomy results were standard reference. RESULTS: Histopathology and cTMRI showed a spearman rho correlation of 0.658 (p .../87 (36 %) patients. ECE risk-scoring showed an AUC of 0.65-0.86 on ROC-curve for both readers, with sensitivity and specificity of 81 % and 78 % at best cutoff level (reader A), respectively. When tumour characteristics were influenced by personal opinion, the sensitivity and specificity for prediction...

  6. Laboratory Risk Indicator for Necrotizing Fasciitis score for early diagnosis of necrotizing fasciitis in Darwin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narasimhan, Vignesh; Ooi, Geraldine; Weidlich, Stephanie; Carson, Phillip

    2017-03-15

    Soft tissue infections are a major health burden in the Top End of the Northern Territory of Australia. Necrotizing fasciitis (NF) is associated with mortality rates from 8 to 40%. Early recognition and aggressive surgical debridement are the cornerstones of successful treatment. The Laboratory Risk Indicator for Necrotizing Fasciitis (LRINEC) score, developed by Wong et al., uses six routine biochemical variables to aid early diagnosis. We aim to assess the diagnostic efficacy of the LRINEC score in our population. A retrospective review of patients with NF between 2005 and 2013 was conducted. A time matched cohort of abscesses/cellulitis was selected. Admission bloods were used to calculate the LRINEC score. An intraoperative finding of NF was used as the gold standard definition for comparison. The diagnostic accuracy of the LRINEC score was assessed. Ninety-eight patients with NF and 205 control patients were identified. The area under the receiver operator curve for the LRINEC score in detecting NF was 0.925 (0.890-0.959, P < 0.001). The sensitivity of the LRINEC ≥5 for NF was 76.3%, with a specificity of 93.1%. The positive and negative predictive values were 95.5 and 88.1%, respectively. The positive and negative likelihood ratios were 11 and 0.25. The LRINEC score is a useful, robust, non-invasive and easily calculated scoring system that can be used as an adjunct to early diagnosis of NF. However, a high degree of clinical suspicion remains the most important factor in early diagnosis of NF. © 2017 Royal Australasian College of Surgeons.

  7. Assessment of a complication risk score and study of complication profile in laparoscopic distal pancreatectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malleo, Giuseppe; Salvia, Roberto; Mascetta, Giuseppe; Esposito, Alessandro; Landoni, Luca; Casetti, Luca; Maggino, Laura; Bassi, Claudio; Butturini, Giovanni

    2014-11-01

    This study assessed the patient-specific risk for major postoperative morbidity in a series of 100 laparoscopic distal pancreatectomies (LDP). A previously established complication risk score (CRS), identifying body mass index (BMI), estimated blood loss (EBL), and pancreatic specimen length as determinants of postoperative morbidity were examined against the observed outcomes. In addition, multivariate analyses were performed to investigate risk factors specific to our study population. The postoperative morbidity rate was 49 %, major complication accounted for 12 %, and clinically relevant pancreatic fistulae (PF) were 13 %. The incidence of any complications, major complications, any PF, and clinically relevant PF did not vary appreciably when the CRS increased. The multivariate analysis indicated that male sex and an EBL ≥150 mL were independent predictors of major morbidity and clinically relevant PF. In conclusion, the previously published CRS based on pre- and intraoperative factors was not able to predict the postoperative risk in our population. This is probably because risk scores may not be able to adjust for the case-mix (heterogeneity in baseline patient characteristics). According to our data, men and patients with EBL ≥150 mL are more likely to develop major postoperative complications after LDP.

  8. Puntaje de detección de riesgo nutricional para mortalidad en pacientes críticamente enfermos: NSRR: Nutritional Score Risk Research Nutritional score risk for mortality in critically ill patients: NSRR: Nutritional Score Risk Research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. M. Marín Ramírez

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Objetivo: El objetivo principal del estudio fue la validación de un puntaje en la valoración nutricional al momento de llegar a la Unidad de Cuidados Intensivos (UCI con o sin enfermedad previa, con el fin de establecer riesgos nutricionales de muerte desde el ingreso. Diseño: Se realizó un estudio descriptivo, prospectivo, observacional de carácter transversal de abril del 2004 a diciembre del 2006. Ámbito: El estudio fue realizado en UCI. Pacientes y participantes: Para el estudio se lograron encuestar 228 pacientes. Las encuestas eran realizadas al familiar cercano que vivía con el paciente, en aquel momento que el familiar mostrar no convivencia con el paciente y/o desconocimiento de su patrón de ingesta de alimentos durante el diario la encuesta era descartada. Se seleccionaron al azar con patologías críticas (sepsis, trauma, pacientes neurocríticos, pacientes médicos, obstétricas críticas, etc. en dos unidades de cuidados intensivos. Intervenciones: Interrogatorio a familiares. Variables de interés: El puntaje escogido fue el Nutritional Score Risk (NSR el cual es elaborado para pacientes mayores de 65 años, puntaje que es ahora modificado para ser utilizado en las unidades de cuidados intensivos en forma práctica, viable, rápida, clara y útil en la obtención de resultados. Resultados: Nuestro estudio demostró que las alteraciones del NSR se pueden observar en todas las edades, establecido por no haber una correlación directa entre la edad y el NSR encontrado (r = 0,15, p = 0,018, además se encontró que el sufrir enfermedades crónicas que alteren las condiciones de ingesta alimentaria adecuada es un parámetro aislado significativo para incrementar la probabilidad de muerte al ingreso a la UCI (p = 0,002. Conclusiones: El NSR mostró que pacientes con un puntaje alto al ingresar por alguna patología aguda se encuentran en riesgo nutricional de morir.Aim: The aim of our study has been applying a nutritional score

  9. Estimation of cardiovascular risk on routine chest CT: Ordinal coronary artery calcium scoring as an accurate predictor of Agatston score ranges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azour, Lea; Kadoch, Michael A; Ward, Thomas J; Eber, Corey D; Jacobi, Adam H

    Coronary artery calcium (CAC) is often identified on routine chest computed tomography (CT). The purpose of our study was to evaluate whether ordinal scoring of CAC on non-gated, routine chest CT is an accurate predictor of Agatston score ranges in a community-based population, and in particular to determine the accuracy of an ordinal score of zero on routine chest CT. Two thoracic radiologists reviewed consecutive same-day ECG-gated and routine non-gated chest CT scans of 222 individuals. CAC was quantified using the Agatston scoring on the ECG-gated scans, and using an ordinal method on routine scans, with a score from 0 to 12. The pattern and distribution of CAC was assessed. The correlation between routine exam ordinal scores and Agatston scores in ECG-gated exams, as well as the accuracy of assigning a zero calcium score on routine chest CT was determined. CAC was most prevalent in the left anterior descending coronary artery in both single and multi-vessel coronary artery disease. There was a strong correlation between the non-gated ordinal and ECG-gated Agatston scores (r = 0.811, p < 0.01). Excellent inter-reader agreement (k = 0.95) was shown for the presence (total ordinal score ≥1) or absence (total ordinal score = 0) of CAC on routine chest CT. The negative predictive value for a total ordinal score of zero on routine CT was 91.6% (95% CI, 85.1-95.9). Total ordinal scores of 0, 1-3, 4-5, and ≥6 corresponded to average Agatston scores of 0.52 (0.3-0.8), 98.7 (78.2-117.1), 350.6 (264.9-436.3) and 1925.4 (1526.9-2323.9). Visual assessment of CAC on non-gated routine chest CT accurately predicts Agatston score ranges, including the zero score, in ECG-gated CT. Inclusion of this information in radiology reports may be useful to convey important information on cardiovascular risk, particularly premature atherosclerosis in younger patients. Copyright © 2016 Society of Cardiovascular Computed Tomography. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights

  10. Aggregate National Early Warning Score (NEWS) values are more important than high scores for a single vital signs parameter for discriminating the risk of adverse outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarvis, Stuart; Kovacs, Caroline; Briggs, Jim; Meredith, Paul; Schmidt, Paul E; Featherstone, Peter I; Prytherch, David R; Smith, Gary B

    2015-02-01

    The Royal College of Physicians (RCPL) National Early Warning Score (NEWS) escalates care to a doctor at NEWS values of ≥5 and when the score for any single vital sign is 3. We calculated the 24-h risk of serious clinical outcomes for vital signs observation sets with NEWS values of 3, 4 and 5, separately determining risks when the score did/did not include a single score of 3. We compared workloads generated by the RCPL's escalation protocol and for aggregate NEWS value alone. Aggregate NEWS values of 3 or 4 (n=142,282) formed 15.1% of all vital signs sets measured; those containing a single vital sign scoring 3 (n=36,207) constituted 3.8% of all sets. Aggregate NEWS values of either 3 or 4 with a component score of 3 have significantly lower risks (OR: 0.26 and 0.53) than an aggregate value of 5 (OR: 1.0). Escalating care to a doctor when any single component of NEWS scores 3 compared to when aggregate NEWS values ≥5, would have increased doctors' workload by 40% with only a small increase in detected adverse outcomes from 2.99 to 3.08 per day (a 3% improvement in detection). The recommended NEWS escalation protocol produces additional work for the bedside nurse and responding doctor, disproportionate to a modest benefit in increased detection of adverse outcomes. It may have significant ramifications for efficient staff resource allocation, distort patient safety focus and risk alarm fatigue. Our findings suggest that the RCPL escalation guidance warrants review. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. THE IMPACT OF SEVERITY OF DIABETIC RETINOPATHY IN CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE RISK ASSESSMENT USING FRAMINGHAM RISK SCORE - A PILOT STUDY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nidhi

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Diabetic retinopathy (DR is the most common micro vascular complications of diabetes, estimated to affect approximately 100 million people worldwide, while cardiovascular disease (CVD is the leading cause of death in individuals with type II diabetes. There is limited Indian data reporting the association of Diabetic retinopathy and its severity with CVD. AIM : To study the relation between the severity of DR and risk of CVD in cen tral Indian subjects. MATERIALS AND METHODS : The subjects consisted of 50 patients with Diabetes mellitus type II having varying grades of diabetic retinopathy attending eye OPD of a tertiary care hospital in central India. 10 year risk of developing CVD was estimated using the Framingham Risk Score. RESULTS : The number of subjects with an increased risk of developing CVD increased with advancing age (28.57% in 40 - 49 years to 61 .53% in > 60 years age group. The risk of CVD was slightly more in males (55. 55% compared to females (43.47%. Out of the 30 patients having sight threatening diabetic retinopathy, 13 had low risk of developing CVD while 17 had high risk of developing CVD. The prevalence of sight threatening retinopathy was more in the high risk group (56.67% when compared to the low - risk group (40%. DISCUSSION : We found that more subjects having high risk of developing CVD had sight - threatening DR compared to those having low risk. CONCLUSION : Diabetic retinopathy may contribute to CVD risk in Indian population too. A careful cardiovascular assessment and follow - up may be required in individuals with diabetic retinopathy, using a larger sample size

  12. Lack of physical activity in young children is related to higher composite risk factor score for cardiovascular disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tanha, Tina; Wollmer, Per; Thorsson, Ola

    2011-01-01

    This study evaluates whether accelerometer-measured physical activity is related to higher composite risk factor scores for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in children.......This study evaluates whether accelerometer-measured physical activity is related to higher composite risk factor scores for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in children....

  13. Predicting high risk of exacerbations in bronchiectasis: the E-FACED score

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    Martinez-Garcia MA

    2017-01-01

    countries (Brazil, Argentina, and Chile. The main outcome was the number of annual exacerbations/hospitalizations, with all-cause and respiratory-related deaths as the secondary outcomes. A statistical evaluation comprised the relative weight and ideal cut-off point for the number or severity of the exacerbations and was incorporated into the FACED score (E-FACED. The results obtained after the application of FACED and E-FACED were compared in both the cohorts.Results: A total of 1,470 patients with bronchiectasis (819 from the construction cohorts and 651 from the external validation cohorts were followed up for 5 years after diagnosis. The best cut-off point was at least two exacerbations in the previous year (two additional points, meaning that the E-FACED has nine points of growing severity. E-FACED presented an excellent prognostic capacity for exacerbations (areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.82 for at least two exacerbations in 1 year and 0.87 for at least one hospitalization in 1 year that was statistically better than that of the FACED score (0.72 and 0.78, P<0.05, respectively. The predictive capacities for all-cause and respiratory mortality were 0.87 and 0.86, respectively, with both being similar to those of the FACED.Conclusion: E-FACED score significantly increases the FACED capacity to predict future yearly exacerbations while maintaining the score’s simplicity and prognostic capacity for death. Keywords: FACED score, E-FACED score, mortality, bronchiectasis, exacerbations

  14. Development of a claims-based risk score to identify obese individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Jeanne M; Chang, Hsien-Yen; Bolen, Shari D; Shore, Andrew D; Goodwin, Suzanne M; Weiner, Jonathan P

    2010-08-01

    Obesity is underdiagnosed, hampering system-based health promotion and research. Our objective was to develop and validate a claims-based risk model to identify obese persons using medical diagnosis and prescription records. We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of de-identified claims data from enrollees of 3 Blue Cross Blue Shield plans who completed a health risk assessment capturing height and weight. The final sample of 71,057 enrollees was randomly split into 2 subsamples for development and validation of the obesity risk model. Using the Johns Hopkins Adjusted Clinical Groups case-mix/predictive risk methodology, we categorized study members' diagnosis (ICD) codes. Logistic regression was used to determine which claims-based risk markers were associated with a body mass index (BMI) > or = 35 kg/m(2). The sensitivities of the scores > or =90(th) percentile to detect obesity were 26% to 33%, while the specificities were >90%. The areas under the receiver operator curve ranged from 0.67 to 0.73. In contrast, a diagnosis of obesity or an obesity medication alone had very poor sensitivity (10% and 1%, respectively); the obesity risk model identified an additional 22% of obese members. Varying the percentile cut-point from the 70(th) to the 99(th) percentile resulted in positive predictive values ranging from 15.5 to 59.2. An obesity risk score was highly specific for detecting a BMI > or = 35 kg/m(2) and substantially increased the detection of obese members beyond a provider-coded obesity diagnosis or medication claim. This model could be used for obesity care management and health promotion or for obesity-related research.

  15. Multivariate injury risk criteria and injury probability scores for fractures to the distal radius.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkhart, Timothy A; Andrews, David M; Dunning, Cynthia E

    2013-03-15

    The purpose of this study was to develop a multivariate distal radius injury risk prediction model that incorporates dynamic loading variables in multiple directions, and interpret the distal radius failure data in order to establish injury probability thresholds. Repeated impacts with increasing intensity were applied to the distal third of eight human cadaveric radius specimens (mean (SD) age=61.9 (9.7)) until injury occurred. Crack (non-propagating damage) and fracture (specimen separated into at least two fragments) injury events were recorded. Best subsets analysis was performed to find the best multivariate injury risk model. Force-only risk models were also determined for comparison. Cumulative distribution functions were developed from the parameters of a Weibull analysis and the forces and risk scores (i.e., values calculated from the injury risk models) from 10% to 90% probability were calculated. According to the adjusted R(2), variance inflation factor and p-values, the model that best predicted the crack event included medial/lateral impulse, Fz load rate, impact velocity and the natural logarithm of Fz (Adj. R(2)=0.698), while the best predictive model of the fracture event included medial/lateral impulse, impact velocity and peak Fz (Adj. R(2)=0.845). The multivariate models predicted injury risk better than both the Fz-only crack (Adj. R(2)=0.551) and fracture (Adj. R(2)=0.293) models. Risk scores of 0.5 and 0.6 corresponded to 10% failure probability for the crack and fracture events, respectively. The inclusion of medial/lateral impulse and impact velocity in both crack and fracture models, and Fz load rate in the crack model, underscores the dynamic nature of these events. This study presents a method capable of developing a set of distal radius fracture prediction models that can be used in the assessment and development of distal radius injury prevention interventions.

  16. Influence of Polygenic Risk Scores on the Association Between Infections and Schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benros, Michael E; Trabjerg, Betina B; Meier, Sandra; Mattheisen, Manuel; Mortensen, Preben B; Mors, Ole; Børglum, Anders D; Hougaard, David M; Nørgaard-Pedersen, Bent; Nordentoft, Merete; Agerbo, Esben

    2016-10-15

    Several studies have suggested an important role of infections in the etiology of schizophrenia; however, shared genetic liability toward infections and schizophrenia could influence the association. We therefore investigated the possible effect of polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for schizophrenia on the association between infections and the risk of schizophrenia. We conducted a nested case-control study on a Danish population-based sample born after 1981 comprising of 1692 cases diagnosed with schizophrenia between 1994 and 2008 and 1724 matched controls. All individuals were linked utilizing nationwide population-based registers with virtually complete registration of all hospital contacts for infections. PRSs were calculated using discovery effect size estimates weights from an independent meta-analysis (34,600 cases and 45,968 control individuals). A prior hospital contact with infection had occurred in 41% of the individuals with schizophrenia and increased the incidence rate ratio (IRR) of schizophrenia by 1.43 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.22-1.67). Adding PRS, which was robustly associated with schizophrenia (by an IRR of 1.46 [95% CI = 1.34-1.60] per standard deviation of the score), did not alter the association with infections and the increased risk of schizophrenia remained (IRR = 1.41; 95% CI = 1.20-1.66). Furthermore, there were no interactions between PRS and infections on the risk of developing schizophrenia (p = .554). Neither did PRS affect the risk of acquiring infections among patients with schizophrenia (odds ratio = 1.00; 95% CI = 0.89-1.12) nor among controls (odds ratio = 1.09; 95% CI: 0.96-1.24). PRS and a history of infections have independent effects on the risk for schizophrenia, and the common genetic risk measured by PRS did not account for the association with infection in this sample. Copyright © 2016 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Applicability of Two International Risk Scores in Cardiac Surgery in a Reference Center in Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garofallo, Silvia Bueno; Machado, Daniel Pinheiro; Rodrigues, Clarissa Garcia; Bordim, Odemir; Kalil, Renato A. K.; Portal, Vera Lúcia

    2014-01-01

    Background The applicability of international risk scores in heart surgery (HS) is not well defined in centers outside of North America and Europe. Objective To evaluate the capacity of the Parsonnet Bernstein 2000 (BP) and EuroSCORE (ES) in predicting in-hospital mortality (IHM) in patients undergoing HS at a reference hospital in Brazil and to identify risk predictors (RP). Methods Retrospective cohort study of 1,065 patients, with 60.3% patients underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), 32.7%, valve surgery and 7.0%, CABG combined with valve surgery. Additive and logistic scores models, the area under the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve (AUC) and the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) were calculated. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify the RP. Results Overall mortality was 7.8%. The baseline characteristics of the patients were significantly different in relation to BP and ES. AUCs of the logistic and additive BP were 0.72 (95% CI, from 0.66 to 0.78 p = 0.74), and of ES they were 0.73 (95% CI; 0.67 to 0.79 p = 0.80). The calculation of the SMR in BP was 1.59 (95% CI; 1.27 to 1.99) and in ES, 1.43 (95% CI; 1.14 to 1.79). Seven RP of IHM were identified: age, serum creatinine > 2.26 mg/dL, active endocarditis, systolic pulmonary arterial pressure > 60 mmHg, one or more previous HS, CABG combined with valve surgery and diabetes mellitus. Conclusion Local scores, based on the real situation of local populations, must be developed for better assessment of risk in cardiac surgery. PMID:25004415

  18. Applicability of Two International Risk Scores in Cardiac Surgery in a Reference Center in Brazil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garofallo, Silvia Bueno; Machado, Daniel Pinheiro; Rodrigues, Clarissa Garcia; Bordim, Odemir Jr.; Kalil, Renato A. K.; Portal, Vera Lúcia, E-mail: veraportal.pesquisa@gmail.com [Post-Graduation Program in Health Sciences: Cardiology, Instituto de Cardiologia/Fundação Universitária de Cardiologia, Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil)

    2014-06-15

    The applicability of international risk scores in heart surgery (HS) is not well defined in centers outside of North America and Europe. To evaluate the capacity of the Parsonnet Bernstein 2000 (BP) and EuroSCORE (ES) in predicting in-hospital mortality (IHM) in patients undergoing HS at a reference hospital in Brazil and to identify risk predictors (RP). Retrospective cohort study of 1,065 patients, with 60.3% patients underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), 32.7%, valve surgery and 7.0%, CABG combined with valve surgery. Additive and logistic scores models, the area under the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve (AUC) and the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) were calculated. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify the RP. Overall mortality was 7.8%. The baseline characteristics of the patients were significantly different in relation to BP and ES. AUCs of the logistic and additive BP were 0.72 (95% CI, from 0.66 to 0.78 p = 0.74), and of ES they were 0.73 (95% CI; 0.67 to 0.79 p = 0.80). The calculation of the SMR in BP was 1.59 (95% CI; 1.27 to 1.99) and in ES, 1.43 (95% CI; 1.14 to 1.79). Seven RP of IHM were identified: age, serum creatinine > 2.26 mg/dL, active endocarditis, systolic pulmonary arterial pressure > 60 mmHg, one or more previous HS, CABG combined with valve surgery and diabetes mellitus. Local scores, based on the real situation of local populations, must be developed for better assessment of risk in cardiac surgery.

  19. A 17-gene stemness score for rapid determination of risk in acute leukaemia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Stanley W K; Mitchell, Amanda; Kennedy, James A; Chen, Weihsu C; McLeod, Jessica; Ibrahimova, Narmin; Arruda, Andrea; Popescu, Andreea; Gupta, Vikas; Schimmer, Aaron D; Schuh, Andre C; Yee, Karen W; Bullinger, Lars; Herold, Tobias; Görlich, Dennis; Büchner, Thomas; Hiddemann, Wolfgang; Berdel, Wolfgang E; Wörmann, Bernhard; Cheok, Meyling; Preudhomme, Claude; Dombret, Herve; Metzeler, Klaus; Buske, Christian; Löwenberg, Bob; Valk, Peter J M; Zandstra, Peter W; Minden, Mark D; Dick, John E; Wang, Jean C Y

    2016-12-15

    Refractoriness to induction chemotherapy and relapse after achievement of remission are the main obstacles to cure in acute myeloid leukaemia (AML). After standard induction chemotherapy, patients are assigned to different post-remission strategies on the basis of cytogenetic and molecular abnormalities that broadly define adverse, intermediate and favourable risk categories. However, some patients do not respond to induction therapy and another subset will eventually relapse despite the lack of adverse risk factors. There is an urgent need for better biomarkers to identify these high-risk patients before starting induction chemotherapy, to enable testing of alternative induction strategies in clinical trials. The high rate of relapse in AML has been attributed to the persistence of leukaemia stem cells (LSCs), which possess a number of stem cell properties, including quiescence, that are linked to therapy resistance. Here, to develop predictive and/or prognostic biomarkers related to stemness, we generated a list of genes that are differentially expressed between 138 LSC(+) and 89 LSC(-) cell fractions from 78 AML patients validated by xenotransplantation. To extract the core transcriptional components of stemness relevant to clinical outcomes, we performed sparse regression analysis of LSC gene expression against survival in a large training cohort, generating a 17-gene LSC score (LSC17). The LSC17 score was highly prognostic in five independent cohorts comprising patients of diverse AML subtypes (n = 908) and contributed greatly to accurate prediction of initial therapy resistance. Patients with high LSC17 scores had poor outcomes with current treatments including allogeneic stem cell transplantation. The LSC17 score provides clinicians with a rapid and powerful tool to identify AML patients who do not benefit from standard therapy and who should be enrolled in trials evaluating novel upfront or post-remission strategies.

  20. A simplified clinical risk score predicts the need for early endoscopy in non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tammaro, Leonardo; Buda, Andrea; Di Paolo, Maria Carla; Zullo, Angelo; Hassan, Cesare; Riccio, Elisabetta; Vassallo, Roberto; Caserta, Luigi; Anderloni, Andrea; Natali, Alessandro

    2014-09-01

    Pre-endoscopic triage of patients who require an early upper endoscopy can improve management of patients with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding. To validate a new simplified clinical score (T-score) to assess the need of an early upper endoscopy in non variceal bleeding patients. Secondary outcomes were re-bleeding rate, 30-day bleeding-related mortality. In this prospective, multicentre study patients with bleeding who underwent upper endoscopy were enrolled. The accuracy for high risk endoscopic stigmata of the T-score was compared with that of the Glasgow Blatchford risk score. Overall, 602 patients underwent early upper endoscopy, and 472 presented with non-variceal bleeding. High risk endoscopic stigmata were detected in 145 (30.7%) cases. T-score sensitivity and specificity for high risk endoscopic stigmata and bleeding-related mortality was 96% and 30%, and 80% and 71%, respectively. No statistically difference in predicting high risk endoscopic stigmata between T-score and Glasgow Blatchford risk score was observed (ROC curve: 0.72 vs. 0.69, p=0.11). The two scores were also similar in predicting re-bleeding (ROC curve: 0.64 vs. 0.63, p=0.4) and 30-day bleeding-related mortality (ROC curve: 0.78 vs. 0.76, p=0.3). The T-score appeared to predict high risk endoscopic stigmata, re-bleeding and mortality with similar accuracy to Glasgow Blatchford risk score. Such a score may be helpful for the prediction of high-risk patients who need a very early therapeutic endoscopy. Copyright © 2014 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Risk Pricing in Emerging Economies: Credit Scoring and Private Banking in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yiannis Anagnostopoulos

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Iran’s banking industry as a developing country is comparatively very new to risk management practices. An inevitable predictive implication of this rapid growth is the growing concerns with regard to credit risk management which is the motivation of conducting this research. The paper focuses on the credit scoring aspect of credit risk management using both logit and probit regression approaches. Real data on corporate customers are available for conducting this research which is also a contribution to this area for all other developing countries. Our questions focus on how future customers can be classified in terms of credibility, which models and methods are more effective in better capturing risks. Findings suggest that probit approaches are more effective in capturing the significance of variables and goodness-of-fitness tests. Seven variables of the Ohlson O-Score model are used: CL_CA, INTWO, OENEG, TA_TL, SIZE, WCAP_TA, and ROA; two were found to be statistically significant in logit (ROA, TL_TA and three were statistically significant in probit (ROA, TL_TA, SIZE. Also, CL_CA, ROA, and WCAP_TA were the three variables with an unexpected correlation to the probability of default. The prediction power with the cut-off point is set equal to 26% and 56.91% for defaulted customers in both logit and probit models. However, logit achieved 54.85% correct estimation of defaulted assets, 0.37% more than what probit estimated.

  2. Metabolic syndrome risk score and time expended in moderate to vigorous physical activity in adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stabelini Neto, Antonio; de Campos, Wagner; Dos Santos, Géssika Castilho; Mazzardo Junior, Oldemar

    2014-02-14

    The clustering of metabolic syndrome risk factors is inversely related to the amount of physical activity. However, the question remains as to how much daily physical activity is enough to prevent the onset of metabolic disorders in adolescents? Therefore, the objectives of this study were to associate the metabolic risk score with the moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and to identify the amount of daily physical activity to prevent the onset of the metabolic risk factors in Brazilian adolescents. The study involved 391 participants aged 10 to 18 years. Physical activity was measured by accelerometry. The counts obtained in the different activities were transformed into metabolic equivalents and classified as light (≥ 1.5 but pressure, blood glucose, HDL-C and triglycerides. Time spent in MVPA was inversely associated with the continuous risk score for metabolic syndrome (p adolescents must perform at least 88 minutes per day of MVPA. These findings reinforce previous evidence that physical activity relates to metabolic syndrome in adolescents. This population should be encouraged to gradually replace part of their sedentary time with physical activities.

  3. Modified periodontal risk assessment score: long-term predictive value of treatment outcomes. A retrospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leininger, Matthieu; Tenenbaum, Henri; Davideau, Jean-Luc

    2010-05-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the long-term clinical predictive value of the periodontal risk assessment diagram surface (PRAS) score and the influence of patient compliance on the treatment outcomes. Thirty subjects suffering from periodontitis were re-examined 6-12 years after the initial diagnosis and periodontal treatments. The baseline PRAS score was calculated from the initial clinical and radiograph records. Patients were then classified into a low-to-moderate (0-20) or a high-risk group (>20). Patients who did not attend any supportive periodontal therapy were classified into a non-compliant group. PRAS and compliance were correlated to the mean tooth loss (TL)/year and the mean variation in the number of periodontal pockets with a probing depth (PPD) >4 mm. TL was 0.11 for the low-to-moderate-risk group and 0.26 for the high-risk group (p<0.05); PPD number reduction was 2.57 and 2.17, respectively, and bleeding on probing reduction was 6.7% and 23.3%, respectively. Comparing the compliance groups, the PPD number reduction was 3.39 in the compliant group and 1.40 in the non-compliant group (p<0.05). This study showed the reliability of PRAS in evaluating long-term TL and patient susceptibility to periodontal disease. Our data confirmed the positive influence of patient compliance on periodontal treatment outcomes.

  4. Evaluation of Polygenic Risk Scores for Breast and Ovarian Cancer Risk Prediction in BRCA1 and BRCA2 Mutation Carriers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuchenbaecker, Karoline B.; McGuffog, Lesley; Barrowdale, Daniel; Lee, Andrew; Soucy, Penny; Healey, Sue; Dennis, Joe; Lush, Michael; Robson, Mark; Spurdle, Amanda B.; Ramus, Susan J.; Mavaddat, Nasim; Terry, Mary Beth; Neuhausen, Susan L.; Hamann, Ute; Southey, Melissa; John, Esther M.; Chung, Wendy K.; Daly, Mary B.; Buys, Saundra S.; Goldgar, David E.; Dorfling, Cecilia M.; van Rensburg, Elizabeth J.; Ding, Yuan Chun; Ejlertsen, Bent; Gerdes, Anne-Marie; Hansen, Thomas V. O.; Slager, Susan; Hallberg, Emily; Benitez, Javier; Osorio, Ana; Cohen, Nancy; Lawler, William; Weitzel, Jeffrey N.; Peterlongo, Paolo; Pensotti, Valeria; Dolcetti, Riccardo; Barile, Monica; Bonanni, Bernardo; Azzollini, Jacopo; Manoukian, Siranoush; Peissel, Bernard; Radice, Paolo; Savarese, Antonella; Papi, Laura; Giannini, Giuseppe; Fostira, Florentia; Konstantopoulou, Irene; Adlard, Julian; Brewer, Carole; Cook, Jackie; Davidson, Rosemarie; Eccles, Diana; Eeles, Ros; Ellis, Steve; Frost, Debra; Hodgson, Shirley; Izatt, Louise; Lalloo, Fiona; Ong, Kai-ren; Godwin, Andrew K.; Arnold, Norbert; Dworniczak, Bernd; Engel, Christoph; Gehrig, Andrea; Hahnen, Eric; Hauke, Jan; Kast, Karin; Meindl, Alfons; Niederacher, Dieter; Schmutzler, Rita Katharina; Varon-Mateeva, Raymonda; Wang-Gohrke, Shan; Wappenschmidt, Barbara; Barjhoux, Laure; Collonge-Rame, Marie-Agnès; Elan, Camille; Golmard, Lisa; Barouk-Simonet, Emmanuelle; Lesueur, Fabienne; Mazoyer, Sylvie; Sokolowska, Joanna; Stoppa-Lyonnet, Dominique; Isaacs, Claudine; Claes, Kathleen B. M.; Poppe, Bruce; de la Hoya, Miguel; Garcia-Barberan, Vanesa; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Nevanlinna, Heli; Ausems, Margreet G. E. M.; de Lange, J. L.; Gómez Garcia, Encarna B.; Hogervorst, Frans B. L.; Kets, Carolien M.; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne E. J.; Oosterwijk, Jan C.; Rookus, Matti A.; van Asperen, Christi J.; van den Ouweland, Ans M. W.; van Doorn, Helena C.; van Os, Theo A. M.; Kwong, Ava; Olah, Edith; Diez, Orland; Brunet, Joan; Lazaro, Conxi; Teulé, Alex; Gronwald, Jacek; Jakubowska, Anna; Kaczmarek, Katarzyna; Lubinski, Jan; Sukiennicki, Grzegorz; Barkardottir, Rosa B.; Chiquette, Jocelyne; Agata, Simona; Montagna, Marco; Teixeira, Manuel R.; Park, Sue Kyung; Olswold, Curtis; Tischkowitz, Marc; Foretova, Lenka; Gaddam, Pragna; Vijai, Joseph; Pfeiler, Georg; Rappaport-Fuerhauser, Christine; Singer, Christian F.; Tea, Muy-Kheng M.; Greene, Mark H.; Loud, Jennifer T.; Rennert, Gad; Imyanitov, Evgeny N.; Hulick, Peter J.; Hays, John L.; Piedmonte, Marion; Rodriguez, Gustavo C.; Martyn, Julie; Glendon, Gord; Mulligan, Anna Marie; Andrulis, Irene L.; Toland, Amanda Ewart; Jensen, Uffe Birk; Kruse, Torben A.; Pedersen, Inge Sokilde; Thomassen, Mads; Caligo, Maria A.; Teo, Soo-Hwang; Berger, Raanan; Friedman, Eitan; Laitman, Yael; Arver, Brita; Borg, Ake; Ehrencrona, Hans; Rantala, Johanna; Olopade, Olufunmilayo I.; Ganz, Patricia A.; Nussbaum, Robert L.; Bradbury, Angela R.; Domchek, Susan M.; Nathanson, Katherine L.; Arun, Banu K.; James, Paul; Karlan, Beth Y.; Lester, Jenny; Simard, Jacques; Pharoah, Paul D. P.; Offit, Kenneth; Couch, Fergus J.; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Easton, Douglas F.

    2017-01-01

    Background: Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 94 common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with breast cancer (BC) risk and 18 associated with ovarian cancer (OC) risk. Several of these are also associated with risk of BC or OC for women who carry a pathogenic mutation in the high-risk BC and OC genes BRCA1 or BRCA2. The combined effects of these variants on BC or OC risk for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers have not yet been assessed while their clinical management could benefit from improved personalized risk estimates. Methods: We constructed polygenic risk scores (PRS) using BC and OC susceptibility SNPs identified through population-based GWAS: for BC (overall, estrogen receptor [ER]–positive, and ER-negative) and for OC. Using data from 15 252 female BRCA1 and 8211 BRCA2 carriers, the association of each PRS with BC or OC risk was evaluated using a weighted cohort approach, with time to diagnosis as the outcome and estimation of the hazard ratios (HRs) per standard deviation increase in the PRS. Results: The PRS for ER-negative BC displayed the strongest association with BC risk in BRCA1 carriers (HR = 1.27, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.23 to 1.31, P = 8.2×10−53). In BRCA2 carriers, the strongest association with BC risk was seen for the overall BC PRS (HR = 1.22, 95% CI = 1.17 to 1.28, P = 7.2×10−20). The OC PRS was strongly associated with OC risk for both BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers. These translate to differences in absolute risks (more than 10% in each case) between the top and bottom deciles of the PRS distribution; for example, the OC risk was 6% by age 80 years for BRCA2 carriers at the 10th percentile of the OC PRS compared with 19% risk for those at the 90th percentile of PRS. Conclusions: BC and OC PRS are predictive of cancer risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers. Incorporation of the PRS into risk prediction models has promise to better inform decisions on cancer risk management. PMID

  5. Composite risk scores and composite endpoints in the risk prediction of outcomes in anticoagulated patients with atrial fibrillation. The Loire Valley Atrial Fibrillation Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banerjee, A; Fauchier, L; Bernard-Brunet, A; Clementy, N; Lip, G Y H

    2014-03-01

    Several validated risk stratification schemes for prediction of ischaemic stroke (IS)/thromboembolism (TE) and major bleeding are available for patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). On the basis for multiple common risk factors for IS/TE and bleeding, it has been suggested that composite risk prediction scores may be more practical and user-friendly than separate scores for bleeding and IS/TE. In a long-term prospective hospital registry of anticoagulated patients with newly diagnosed AF, we compared the predictive value of existing risk prediction scores as well as composite risk scores, and also compared these risk scoring systems using composite endpoints. Endpoint 1 was the simple composite of IS and major bleeds. Endpoint 2 was based on a composite of IS plus intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH). Endpoint 3 was based on weighted coefficients for IS/TE and ICH. Endpoint 4 was a composite of stroke, cardiovascular death, TE and major bleeding. The incremental predictive value of these scores over CHADS2 (as reference) for composite endpoints was assessed using c-statistic, net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). Of 8,962 eligible individuals, 3,607 (40.2%) had NVAF and were on OAC at baseline. There were no statistically significant differences between the c-statistics of the various risk scores, compared with the CHADS2 score, regardless of the endpoint. For the various risk scores and various endpoints, NRI and IDI did not show significant improvement (≥1%), compared with the CHADS2 score. In conclusion, composite risk scores did not significantly improve risk prediction of endpoints in patients with NVAF, regardless of how endpoints were defined. This would support individualised prediction of IS/TE and bleeding separately using different separate risk prediction tools, and not the use of composite scores or endpoints for everyday 'real world' clinical practice, to guide decisions on

  6. MORTALITY RISK ASSESSMENT IN PICU USING PRISM-III-24 SCORE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harilal Naik

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Assessment of risk of mortality using PRISM III-24 score in children admitted to PICU of Basaweshwara Teaching and General Hospital, attached to Mahadevappa Rampure Medical College, Gulbarga. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. Setting: PICU of BTGH, Gulbarga. METHODS: 404 patients who had been admitted consecutively to the PICU during a period of 12 months (July 2011 to June 2012 were studied. PRISM III-24 score was calculated. Hospital outcome was recorded as survived/expired. Calibration and discrimination of the model was calculated by Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and Area under the ROC Curve. The association between r (empirical function and PRISM III-24 score was assessed by Binary Logistic Regression method. RESULTS: Out of 404 patients, 363 (89.85% survived and 41 (10.15% expired. Males formed the majority (227/404. CNS cases (n=118, 29.2% constituted the majority. Mean age, length of hospitalization, and mean PRISM III-24 score were 59.22±51.12 months, 99.84±91.61 hours, and 4.92±7.74 (range 0-36. The test was well designed for the study (goodness-of-fit value P-value 0.186. ROC analysis indicated a strong predictive power for the PRISM III-24 (AUC 0.936. The observed (O mortality rate was 10.15% and the expected (E mortality rate was 10.12% with an O/E ratio of 1.003. CONCLUSION: PRISM III-24 score is a good predictor of mortality in PICU patients under Indian circumstances. The PRISM III-24 scoring system was highly calibrated in our institute.

  7. Job level risk assessment using task level strain index scores: a pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drinkaus, Phillip; Bloswick, Donald S; Sesek, Richard; Mann, Clay; Bernard, Thomas

    2005-01-01

    This paper explores 2 methods of modifying the Strain Index (SI) to assess the ergonomic risk of multi-task jobs. Twenty-eight automotive jobs (15 cases and 13 controls) were studied. The first method is based on the maximum task SI score, and the second method is modeled on the NIOSH Composite Lifting Index (CLI) algorithm, named cumulative assessment of risk to the distal upper extremity (CARD). Significant odds ratios of 11 (CI 1.7-69) and 24 (CI 2.4-240) were obtained using the modified maximum task and CARD, respectively. This indicates that modification of the SI may be useful in determining the risk of distal upper extremity injury associated with a multi-task job.

  8. Genetic risk scores link body fat distribution with specific cardiometabolic profiles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svendstrup, Mathilde; Sandholt, Camilla H; Andersson Galijatovic, Ehm Astrid

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Forty-nine known single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associating with body mass index (BMI)-adjusted waist-hip-ratio (WHR) (WHRadjBMI) were recently suggested to cluster into three groups with different associations to cardiometabolic traits. Genetic risk scores of the clusters......, including fasting serum triglyceride (β = 0.98% mmol/L, P = 3.33 × 10(-) (8) ) and Matsuda index (β = -0.74%, P = 1.29 × 10(-) (4) ). No similar associations for Clusters 2 and 3 were found. The three clusters showed different patterns of association with waist circumference, hip circumference, and height...... on the risk of incident diabetes and associations with detailed cardiometabolic phenotypes were tested. METHODS: In a prospective study of 6,121 Inter99 individuals, the risk of incident diabetes using Cox proportional hazards regression was evaluated. Using linear regession, the associations between genetic...

  9. Impact of malnutrition on pediatric risk of mortality score and outcome in Pediatric Intensive Care Unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romi Nangalu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: This study was done to determine the effect of malnutrition on mortality in Pediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU and on the pediatric risk of mortality (PRISM scoring. Subjects and Methods: This was a prospective study done over 1 year. There were total 400 patients (1 month 14 years, who were divided into cases with weight for age <3 rd centile and controls with ≥3 rd centile of WHO charts. Cases were subdivided into mild/moderate (61-80% of expected weight for age and severe malnutrition (<60%. Results: Out of total, 38.5% patients were underweight, and malnutrition was more in infancy, 61/104, i.e. 58.5% (P - 0.003. There was no significant difference in vitals at admission. Cases needed prolonged mechanical ventilation (P - 0.0063 and hospital stay (P - 0.0332 compared to controls. Mean and median PRISM scores were comparable in both the groups, but mortality was significantly higher in severely malnourished (P value 0.027. Conclusion: Severe malnutrition is independently associated with higher mortality even with similar PRISM score. There is need to give an additional score to children with weight for age <60% of expected.

  10. The Cancer of the Bladder Risk Assessment (COBRA) score: Estimating mortality after radical cystectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welty, Christopher J; Sanford, Thomas H; Wright, Jonathan L; Carroll, Peter R; Cooperberg, Matthew R; Meng, Maxwell V; Porten, Sima P

    2017-09-07

    Risk stratification of patients with urothelial carcinoma of the bladder (UCB) after cystectomy has important clinical and research implications. The authors assessed the relative effect of tumor stage and lymph node status on cancer-specific survival (CSS) after cystectomy and developed a simplified risk-assessment tool. In total, 14,828 patients who underwent cystectomy with lymph node dissection for UCB were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (1988-2011). The relative importance of tumor stage and lymph node status with regard to CSS was assessed using stratified Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional-hazards analyses. The patients were split randomly into development and validation cohorts. Additional validation using overall survival was performed on 19,362 patients from the National Cancer Data Base. The Cancer of Bladder Risk Assessment (COBRA) tool was created using a Cox model incorporating age, tumor stage, and lymph node density. Performance was validated using observed versus expected survival plots and the Harrell concordance index. Patients with muscle invasive (T2), lymph node-positive disease had a survival curve similar to that in patients with extravesical (T3 and T4), lymph node-negative disease (2-year CSS, 67% and 70%, respectively). Each point increase in the COBRA score (range, 0-7) was associated with a 1.61-fold increase (95% confidence interval, 1.56-fold to 1.65-fold increase) in the risk of bladder cancer death in the development cohort. The model accurately stratified patients across risk levels in the development cohort and the 2 validation cohorts (C-index, 0.712, 0.705, and 0.68, respectively). The COBRA score offers a straightforward, validated risk-stratification tool that incorporates the relative contribution of tumor stage and lymph node involvement to patient prognosis after cystectomy for UCB. Cancer 2017. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

  11. Inpatient Mortality Risk Scores and Postdischarge Events in Hospitalized Heart Failure Patients: A Community-Based Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Win, Sithu; Hussain, Imad; Hebl, Virginia B; Dunlay, Shannon M; Redfield, Margaret M

    2017-07-01

    The Acute Decompensated Heart Failure National Registry (ADHERE) and Get With The Guidelines (GWTG) registries have developed simple heart failure (HF) in-hospital mortality risk scores. We hypothesized that HF scores predictive of in-hospital mortality would perform as well for early postdischarge mortality risk stratification. In this single-center, community-based, retrospective study of all consecutive primary HF hospitalizations (6203 hospitalizations in 3745 patients) from 2000 to 2013, the ADHERE and GWTG risk scores were calculated from admission data. There were 176 (3.0%) and 399 (6.7%), 869 (14.7%), and 1272 (21.5%) deaths in-hospital and at 30, 90, and 180 days postdischarge, respectively. The GWTG but not ADHERE risk score was well calibrated for in-hospital mortality. Both the ADHERE (C statistic 0.66 and 0.67, 0.64, and 0.64) and GWTG (C statistic 0.74 and 0.73, 0.71, and 0.70) HF risk scores were similarly predictive of in-hospital and 30-, 90-, and 180-day postdischarge mortality. The ADHERE risk score identified 10% and the GWTG risk score identified 20% of hospitalizations where 180-day postdischarge mortality was 50%, a prognostic bench mark for hospice referral. In contrast, hospitalizations characterized as lowest risk by the ADHERE (57% of hospitalizations; 180-day mortality 16.2%) or GWTG score (20% of hospitalizations; 180-day mortality 8.0%) had substantially lower mortality (odds ratios high versus low risk of 5-8 [ADHERE] and 11-18 [GWTG] across time points; P<0.0001 for all). The simple ADHERE and GWTG scores stratify hospitalized HF patients for both inpatient and early postdischarge mortality risk, allowing comprehensive risk assessment on admission. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

  12. Risk scores to facilitate preoperative prediction of transfusion and large volume blood transfusion associated with adult cardiac surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goudie, R; Sterne, J A C; Verheyden, V; Bhabra, M; Ranucci, M; Murphy, G J

    2015-05-01

    The aim of this study was to develop two novel risk prediction scores for transfusion and bleeding that would be used to inform treatment decisions, quality assurance, and clinical trial design in cardiac surgery. Clinical data prospectively collected from 26 UK cardiac surgical centres and a single European centre were used to develop two risk prediction models: one for any red blood cell (RBC) transfusion, and the other for large volume blood transfusion (≥4 RBC units; LVBT), an index of severe blood loss. 'Complete case' data were available for 24 749 patients. Multiple imputation was used for missing covariate data (typically data set containing 39 970 patients. Risk models were developed in the complete case data set, with internal validation using leave-one-centre-out cross-validation. The final selected models were fitted to the imputed data set. Final risk scores were then compared with the performance of three existing scores: the Transfusion Risk and Clinical Knowledge score (TRACK), the Transfusion Risk Understanding Scoring Tool (TRUST), and the Papworth Bleeding Risk Score (BRiSc). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.77 (95% confidence interval 0.77-0.77) for the any RBC transfusion score and AUC 0.80 (0.79-0.80) for the LVBT score in the imputed data set. The LVBT model also showed excellent discrimination (Hosmer-Lemeshow P=0.32). In the imputed data set, the AUCs for the TRACK and TRUST scores for any RBC transfusion were 0.71 and 0.71, respectively, and for LVBT the AUC for the BRiSc score was 0.69. Two new risk scores for any RBC transfusion or LVBT among cardiac surgery patients have excellent discrimination, and could inform clinical decision making. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Journal of Anaesthesia. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  13. Development of a Mediterranean diet score adapted to Japan and its relation to obesity risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masao Kanauchi

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: The Mediterranean diet (MD is well known as a healthy diet that protects against several chronic diseases. However, there is no appropriate and easy index to assess adherence to the MD pattern in Japan. Objective: The aim of this study was to develop a novel instrument to measure MD adherence adapted to a Japanese diet and to examine its association with overweight/obesity risk. Methods: A cross-sectional nutritional survey provided the data for construction of a novel MD score. In total, 1,048 subjects who were employees and university students, aged 18–68 years (645 men and 403 women, completed a 58-item brief-type self-administered dietary history questionnaire. We constructed a Japanese-adapted MD score (jMD score focusing on 13 components. Adherence to the jMD was categorized as low (score 0–4, moderate (5–7, or high (8–13. Results: Men had higher jMD scores than women, and adherence to the jMD score increased with age. Only 11.6% of subjects showed high adherence to the jMD, whereas 29.6% showed low adherence. A higher jMD adherence was associated with a higher intake of favorable nutrients with the exception of salt. The jMD adherence was significantly associated with a reduced likelihood of having overweight/obesity for the highest category compared with lowest category (odds ratio [OR] 0.50, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.30–0.85, p-trend=0.017 after adjusting for age, sex, smoking, physical activity, alcohol intake, and hypertension. A two-point increment in jMD score was related to a reduced likelihood of having overweight/obesity with an odds ratio of 0.76 (95% CI 0.65–0.90, p=0.002. Conclusions: Our novel jMD score confirmed reasonable associations with nutrient intakes, and higher MD adherence was associated with a lower prevalence of overweight/obesity.

  14. Development of a Mediterranean diet score adapted to Japan and its relation to obesity risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanauchi, Masao; Kanauchi, Kimiko

    2016-01-01

    The Mediterranean diet (MD) is well known as a healthy diet that protects against several chronic diseases. However, there is no appropriate and easy index to assess adherence to the MD pattern in Japan. The aim of this study was to develop a novel instrument to measure MD adherence adapted to a Japanese diet and to examine its association with overweight/obesity risk. A cross-sectional nutritional survey provided the data for construction of a novel MD score. In total, 1,048 subjects who were employees and university students, aged 18-68 years (645 men and 403 women), completed a 58-item brief-type self-administered dietary history questionnaire. We constructed a Japanese-adapted MD score (jMD score) focusing on 13 components. Adherence to the jMD was categorized as low (score 0-4), moderate (5-7), or high (8-13). Men had higher jMD scores than women, and adherence to the jMD score increased with age. Only 11.6% of subjects showed high adherence to the jMD, whereas 29.6% showed low adherence. A higher jMD adherence was associated with a higher intake of favorable nutrients with the exception of salt. The jMD adherence was significantly associated with a reduced likelihood of having overweight/obesity for the highest category compared with lowest category (odds ratio [OR] 0.50, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.30-0.85, p-trend=0.017) after adjusting for age, sex, smoking, physical activity, alcohol intake, and hypertension. A two-point increment in jMD score was related to a reduced likelihood of having overweight/obesity with an odds ratio of 0.76 (95% CI 0.65-0.90, p=0.002). Our novel jMD score confirmed reasonable associations with nutrient intakes, and higher MD adherence was associated with a lower prevalence of overweight/obesity.

  15. Risk stratification in cardiovascular disease primary prevention - scoring systems, novel markers, and imaging techniques.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Zannad, Faiez

    2012-04-01

    The aim of this paper is to review and discuss current methods of risk stratification for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention, emerging biomarkers, and imaging techniques, and their relative merits and limitations. This report is based on discussions that took place among experts in the area during a special CardioVascular Clinical Trialists workshop organized by the European Society of Cardiology Working Group on Cardiovascular Pharmacology and Drug Therapy in September 2009. Classical risk factors such as blood pressure and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels remain the cornerstone of risk estimation in primary prevention but their use as a guide to management is limited by several factors: (i) thresholds for drug treatment vary with the available evidence for cost-effectiveness and benefit-to-risk ratios; (ii) assessment may be imprecise; (iii) residual risk may remain, even with effective control of dyslipidemia and hypertension. Novel measures include C-reactive protein, lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A(2) , genetic markers, and markers of subclinical organ damage, for which there are varying levels of evidence. High-resolution ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging to assess carotid atherosclerotic lesions have potential but require further validation, standardization, and proof of clinical usefulness in the general population. In conclusion, classical risk scoring systems are available and inexpensive but have a number of limitations. Novel risk markers and imaging techniques may have a place in drug development and clinical trial design. However, their additional value above and beyond classical risk factors has yet to be determined for risk-guided therapy in CVD prevention.

  16. Long-term bleeding risk prediction in 'real world' patients with atrial fibrillation: Comparison of the HAS-BLED and ABC-Bleeding risk scores. The Murcia Atrial Fibrillation Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esteve-Pastor, María Asunción; Rivera-Caravaca, José Miguel; Roldan, Vanessa; Vicente, Vicente; Valdés, Mariano; Marín, Francisco; Lip, Gregory Y H

    2017-10-05

    Risk scores in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) based on clinical factors alone generally have only modest predictive value for predicting high risk patients that sustain events. Biomarkers might be an attractive prognostic tool to improve bleeding risk prediction. The new ABC-Bleeding score performed better than HAS-BLED score in a clinical trial cohort but has not been externally validated. The aim of this study was to analyze the predictive performance of the ABC-Bleeding score compared to HAS-BLED score in an independent "real-world" anticoagulated AF patients with long-term follow-up. We enrolled 1,120 patients stable on vitamin K antagonist treatment. The HAS-BLED and ABC-Bleeding scores were quantified. Predictive values were compared by c-indexes, IDI, NRI, as well as decision curve analysis (DCA). Median HAS-BLED score was 2 (IQR 2-3) and median ABC-Bleeding was 16.5 (IQR 14.3-18.6). After 6.5 years of follow-up, 207 (2.84 %/year) patients had major bleeding events, of which 65 (0.89 %/year) had intracranial haemorrhage (ICH) and 85 (1.17 %/year) had gastrointestinal bleeding events (GIB). The c-index of HAS-BLED was significantly higher than ABC-Bleeding for major bleeding (0.583 vs 0.518; p=0.025), GIB (0.596 vs 0.519; p=0.017) and for the composite of ICH-GIB (0.593 vs 0.527; p=0.030). NRI showed a significant negative reclassification for major bleeding and for the composite of ICH-GIB with the ABC-Bleeding score compared to HAS-BLED. Using DCAs, the use of HAS-BLED score gave an approximate net benefit of 4 % over the ABC-Bleeding score. In conclusion, in the first "real-world" validation of the ABC-Bleeding score, HAS-BLED performed significantly better than the ABC-Bleeding score in predicting major bleeding, GIB and the composite of GIB and ICH.

  17. Pre-operative risk scores for the prediction of outcome in elderly people who require emergency surgery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bates Tom

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The decision on whether to operate on a sick elderly person with an intra-abdominal emergency is one of the most difficult in general surgery. A predictive risk-score would be of great value in this situation. Methods A Medline search was performed to identify those predictive risk-scores relevant to sick elderly patients in whom emergency surgery might be life-saving. Results Many of the risk scores for surgical patients include the operative findings or require tests which are not available in the acute situation. Most of the relevant studies include younger patients and elective surgery. The Glasgow Aneurysm Score and Hardman Index are specific to ruptured aortic aneurysm while the Boey Score and the Hacetteppe Score are specific to perforated peptic ulcer. The Reiss Index and Fitness Score can be used pre-operatively if the elements of the score can be completed in time. The ASA score, which includes a significant element of subjective clinical judgement, can be augmented with factors such as age and urgency of surgery but no test has a negative predictive value sufficient to recommend against surgical intervention without clinical input. Conclusion Risk scores may be helpful in sick elderly patients needing emergency abdominal surgery but an experienced clinical opinion is still essential.

  18. The Yale Observation Scale Score and the Risk of Serious Bacterial Infections in Febrile Infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nigrovic, Lise E; Mahajan, Prashant V; Blumberg, Stephen M; Browne, Lorin R; Linakis, James G; Ruddy, Richard M; Bennett, Jonathan E; Rogers, Alexander J; Tzimenatos, Leah; Powell, Elizabeth C; Alpern, Elizabeth R; Casper, T Charles; Ramilo, Octavio; Kuppermann, Nathan

    2017-07-01

    To assess the performance of the Yale Observation Scale (YOS) score and unstructured clinician suspicion to identify febrile infants ≤60 days of age with and without serious bacterial infections (SBIs). We performed a planned secondary analysis of a prospective cohort of non-critically ill, febrile, full-term infants ≤60 days of age presenting to 1 of 26 participating emergency departments in the Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network. We defined SBIs as urinary tract infections, bacteremia, or bacterial meningitis, with the latter 2 considered invasive bacterial infections. Emergency department clinicians applied the YOS (range: 6-30; normal score: ≤10) and estimated the risk of SBI using unstructured clinician suspicion (50%). Of the 4591 eligible infants, 444 (9.7%) had SBIs and 97 (2.1%) had invasive bacterial infections. Of the 4058 infants with YOS scores of ≤10, 388 (9.6%) had SBIs (sensitivity: 51/439 [11.6%]; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 8.8%-15.0%; negative predictive value: 3670/4058 [90.4%]; 95% CI: 89.5%-91.3%) and 72 (1.8%) had invasive bacterial infections (sensitivity 23/95 [24.2%], 95% CI: 16.0%-34.1%; negative predictive value: 3983/4055 [98.2%], 95% CI: 97.8%-98.6%). Of the infants with clinician suspicion of <1%, 106 had SBIs (6.4%) and 16 (1.0%) had invasive bacterial infections. In this large prospective cohort of febrile infants ≤60 days of age, neither the YOS score nor unstructured clinician suspicion reliably identified those with invasive bacterial infections. More accurate clinical and laboratory predictors are needed to risk stratify febrile infants. Copyright © 2017 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

  19. A score to predict short-term risk of COPD exacerbations (SCOPEX

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Make BJ

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Barry J Make,1 Göran Eriksson,2 Peter M Calverley,3 Christine R Jenkins,4 Dirkje S Postma,5 Stefan Peterson,6 Ollie Östlund,7 Antonio Anzueto8 1Division of Pulmonary Sciences and Critical Care Medicine, National Jewish Health, University of Colorado Denver School of Medicine, Denver, CO, USA; 2Department of Respiratory Medicine and Allergology, University Hospital, Lund, Sweden; 3Pulmonary and Rehabilitation Research Group, University Hospital Aintree, Liverpool, UK; 4George Institute for Global Health, The University of Sydney and Concord Clinical School, Woolcock Institute of Medical Research, Sydney, NSW, Australia; 5Department of Pulmonology, University of Groningen and GRIAC Research Institute, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands; 6StatMind AB, Lund, Sweden; 7Department of Medical Sciences and Uppsala Clinical Research Center, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden; 8Department of Pulmonary/Critical Care, University of Texas Health Sciences Center and South Texas Veterans Healthcare System, San Antonio, TX, USA Background: There is no clinically useful score to predict chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD exacerbations. We aimed to derive this by analyzing data from three existing COPD clinical trials of budesonide/formoterol, formoterol, or placebo in patients with moderate-to-very-severe COPD and a history of exacerbations in the previous year. Methods: Predictive variables were selected using Cox regression for time to first severe COPD exacerbation. We determined absolute risk estimates for an exacerbation by identifying variables in a binomial model, adjusting for observation time, study, and treatment. The model was further reduced to clinically useful variables and the final regression coefficients scaled to obtain risk scores of 0–100 to predict an exacerbation within 6 months. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves and the corresponding C-index were used to investigate the discriminatory

  20. Forecasting Latin America’s Country Risk Scores by Means of a Dynamic Diffusion Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Cervelló-Royo

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Over the last years, worldwide financial market instability has shaken confidence in global economies. Global financial crisis and changes in sovereign debts ratings have affected the Latin American financial markets and their economies. However, Latin American’s relative resilience to the more acute rise in risk seen in other regions like Europe during last years is offering investors new options for improving risk-return trade-offs. Therefore, forecasting the future of economic situation involves high levels of uncertainty. The Country Risk Score (CRS represents a broadly used indicator to measure the current situation of a country regarding measures of economic, political, and financial risk in order to determine country risk ratings. In this contribution, we present a diffusion model to study the dynamics of the CRS in 18 Latin American countries which considers both the endogenous effect of each country policies and the contagion effect among them. The model predicts quite well the evolution of the CRS in the short term despite the economic and political instability. Furthermore, the model reproduces and forecasts a slight increasing trend, on average, in the CRS dynamics for almost all Latin American countries over the next months.

  1. Tuberculosis and risk of acute myocardial infarction: a propensity score-matched analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huaman, M A; Kryscio, R J; Fichtenbaum, C J; Henson, D; Salt, E; Sterling, T R; Garvy, B A

    2017-05-01

    Several pathogens have been associated with increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Whether this occurs with Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection is unclear. We assessed if tuberculosis disease increased the risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI). We identified patients with tuberculosis index claims from a large de-identified database of ~15 million adults enrolled in a U.S. commercial insurance policy between 2008 and 2010. Tuberculosis patients were 1:1 matched to patients without tuberculosis claims using propensity scores. We compared the occurrence of index AMI claims between the tuberculosis and non-tuberculosis cohorts using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox Proportional Hazard models. Data on 2026 patients with tuberculosis and 2026 propensity-matched patients without tuberculosis were included. AMI was more frequent in the tuberculosis cohort compared with the non-tuberculosis cohort, 67 (3·3%) vs. 32 (1·6%) AMI cases, respectively, P Tuberculosis was associated with an increased risk of AMI (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1·98, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 1·3-3·0). The results were similar when the analysis was restricted to pulmonary tuberculosis (adjusted HR 2·43, 95% CI 1·5-4·1). Tuberculosis was associated with an increased risk of AMI. CVD risk assessment should be considered in tuberculosis patients. Mechanistic studies of tuberculosis and CVD are warranted.

  2. A modified HEART risk score in chest pain patients with suspected non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chun-Peng MA; Xiao WANG; Qing-Sheng WANG; Xiao-Li LIU; Xiao-Nan HE; Shao-Ping NIE

    2016-01-01

    ObjectiveTo validate a modified HEART [History, Electrocardiograph (ECG), Age, Risk factors and Troponin] risk score in chest pain patients with suspected non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS) in the emergency department (ED).Methods This retrospective cohort study used a prospectively acquired database and chest pain patients admitted to the emergency department with suspected NSTE-ACS were enrolled. Data recorded on arrival at the ED were used. The serum sample of high-sensitivity cardiac Troponin I other than conventional cardiac Troponin I used in the HEART risk score was tested. The modified HEART risk score was calculated. The end point was the occurrence of major adverse cardiac events (MACE) defined as a composite of acute myocardial infarction (AMI), percu-taneous intervention (PCI), coronary artery bypass graft (CABG), or all-cause death, within three months after initial presentation.Results A total of 1,300 patients were enrolled. A total of 606 patients (46.6%) had a MACE within three months: 205 patients (15.8%) were diag-nosed with AMI, 465 patients (35.8%) underwent PCI, and 119 patients (9.2%) underwent CABG. There were 10 (0.8%) deaths. A progres-sive, significant pattern of increasing event rate was observed as the score increased (P < 0.001 byχ2 for trend). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.84. All patients were classified into three groups: low risk (score 0–2), intermediate risk (score 3–4), and high risk (score 5–10). Event rates were 1.1%, 18.5%, and 67.0%, respectively (P < 0.001).ConclusionsThe modified HEART risk score was validated in chest pain patients with suspected NSTE-ACS and may complement MACE risk assessment and patients triage in the ED. A prospective study of the score is warranted.

  3. Interactions of Lipid Genetic Risk Scores with Estimates of Metabolic Health in a Danish Population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Justesen, Johanne M; Allin, Kristine H; Sandholt, Camilla H

    2015-01-01

    Background—There are several well-established lifestyle factors influencing dyslipidemia and currently; 157 genetic susceptibility loci have been reported to be associated with serum lipid levels at genome-wide statistical significance. However, the interplay between lifestyle risk factors...... and these susceptibility loci has not been fully elucidated. We tested whether genetic risk scores (GRS) of lipid-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms associate with fasting serum lipid traits and whether the effects are modulated by lifestyle factors or estimates of metabolic health. Methods and Results—The single......-cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, or triglyceride, 4 weighted GRS were constructed. In a cross-sectional design, we investigated whether the effect of these weighted GRSs on lipid levels were modulated by diet, alcohol consumption, physical activity, and smoking or the individual metabolic health...

  4. Multilocus genetic risk score associates with ischemic stroke in case-control and prospective cohort studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malik, R; Bevan, S; Nalls, MA; Holliday, EG; Devan, WJ; Cheng, YC; Ibrahim-Verbaas, CA; Verhaaren, BF; Bis, JC; Joon, AY; de Stefano, AL; Fornage, M; Psaty, BM; Ikram, MA; Launer, LJ; van Duijn, CM; Sharma, P; Mitchell, BD; Rosand, J; Meschia, JF; Levi, C; Rothwell, PM; Sudlow, C; Markus, HS; Seshadri, S; Dichgans, M

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Genome-wide association studies have revealed multiple common variants associated with known risk factors for ischemic stroke (IS). However, their aggregate effect on risk is uncertain. We aimed to generate a multilocus genetic risk score (GRS) for IS based on genome-wide association studies data from clinical-based samples and to establish its external validity in prospective population-based cohorts. METHODS Three thousand five hundred forty-eight clinic-based IS cases and 6399 controls from the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium 2 were used for derivation of the GRS. Subjects from the METASTROKE consortium served as a replication sample. The validation sample consisted of 22 751 participants from the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology consortium. We selected variants that had reached genome-wide significance in previous association studies on established risk factors for IS. RESULTS A combined GRS for atrial fibrillation, coronary artery disease, hypertension, and systolic blood pressure significantly associated with IS both in the case-control samples and in the prospective population-based studies. Subjects in the top quintile of the combined GRS had >2-fold increased risk of IS compared with subjects in the lowest quintile. Addition of the combined GRS to a simple model based on sex significantly improved the prediction of IS in the combined clinic-based samples but not in the population-based studies, and there was no significant improvement in net reclassification. CONCLUSIONS A multilocus GRS based on common variants for established cardiovascular risk factors was significantly associated with IS both in clinic-based samples and in the general population. However, the improvement in clinical risk prediction was found to be small. PMID:24436234

  5. Prediction of Breast and Prostate Cancer Risks in Male BRCA1 and BRCA2 Mutation Carriers Using Polygenic Risk Scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lecarpentier, Julie; Silvestri, Valentina; Kuchenbaecker, Karoline B; Barrowdale, Daniel; Dennis, Joe; McGuffog, Lesley; Soucy, Penny; Leslie, Goska; Rizzolo, Piera; Navazio, Anna Sara; Valentini, Virginia; Zelli, Veronica; Lee, Andrew; Amin Al Olama, Ali; Tyrer, Jonathan P; Southey, Melissa; John, Esther M; Conner, Thomas A; Goldgar, David E; Buys, Saundra S; Janavicius, Ramunas; Steele, Linda; Ding, Yuan Chun; Neuhausen, Susan L; Hansen, Thomas V O; Osorio, Ana; Weitzel, Jeffrey N; Toss, Angela; Medici, Veronica; Cortesi, Laura; Zanna, Ines; Palli, Domenico; Radice, Paolo; Manoukian, Siranoush; Peissel, Bernard; Azzollini, Jacopo; Viel, Alessandra; Cini, Giulia; Damante, Giuseppe; Tommasi, Stefania; Peterlongo, Paolo; Fostira, Florentia; Hamann, Ute; Evans, D Gareth; Henderson, Alex; Brewer, Carole; Eccles, Diana; Cook, Jackie; Ong, Kai-Ren; Walker, Lisa; Side, Lucy E; Porteous, Mary E; Davidson, Rosemarie; Hodgson, Shirley; Frost, Debra; Adlard, Julian; Izatt, Louise; Eeles, Ros; Ellis, Steve; Tischkowitz, Marc; Godwin, Andrew K; Meindl, Alfons; Gehrig, Andrea; Dworniczak, Bernd; Sutter, Christian; Engel, Christoph; Niederacher, Dieter; Steinemann, Doris; Hahnen, Eric; Hauke, Jan; Rhiem, Kerstin; Kast, Karin; Arnold, Norbert; Ditsch, Nina; Wang-Gohrke, Shan; Wappenschmidt, Barbara; Wand, Dorothea; Lasset, Christine; Stoppa-Lyonnet, Dominique; Belotti, Muriel; Damiola, Francesca; Barjhoux, Laure; Mazoyer, Sylvie; Van Heetvelde, Mattias; Poppe, Bruce; De Leeneer, Kim; Claes, Kathleen B M; de la Hoya, Miguel; Garcia-Barberan, Vanesa; Caldes, Trinidad; Perez Segura, Pedro; Kiiski, Johanna I; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Khan, Sofia; Nevanlinna, Heli; van Asperen, Christi J; Vaszko, Tibor; Kasler, Miklos; Olah, Edith; Balmaña, Judith; Gutiérrez-Enríquez, Sara; Diez, Orland; Teulé, Alex; Izquierdo, Angel; Darder, Esther; Brunet, Joan; Del Valle, Jesús; Feliubadalo, Lidia; Pujana, Miquel Angel; Lazaro, Conxi; Arason, Adalgeir; Agnarsson, Bjarni A; Johannsson, Oskar Th; Barkardottir, Rosa B; Alducci, Elisa; Tognazzo, Silvia; Montagna, Marco; Teixeira, Manuel R; Pinto, Pedro; Spurdle, Amanda B; Holland, Helene; Lee, Jong Won; Lee, Min Hyuk; Lee, Jihyoun; Kim, Sung-Won; Kang, Eunyoung; Kim, Zisun; Sharma, Priyanka; Rebbeck, Timothy R; Vijai, Joseph; Robson, Mark; Lincoln, Anne; Musinsky, Jacob; Gaddam, Pragna; Tan, Yen Y; Berger, Andreas; Singer, Christian F; Loud, Jennifer T; Greene, Mark H; Mulligan, Anna Marie; Glendon, Gord; Andrulis, Irene L; Toland, Amanda Ewart; Senter, Leigha; Bojesen, Anders; Nielsen, Henriette Roed; Skytte, Anne-Bine; Sunde, Lone; Jensen, Uffe Birk; Pedersen, Inge Sokilde; Krogh, Lotte; Kruse, Torben A; Caligo, Maria A; Yoon, Sook-Yee; Teo, Soo-Hwang; von Wachenfeldt, Anna; Huo, Dezheng; Nielsen, Sarah M; Olopade, Olufunmilayo I; Nathanson, Katherine L; Domchek, Susan M; Lorenchick, Christa; Jankowitz, Rachel C; Campbell, Ian; James, Paul; Mitchell, Gillian; Orr, Nick; Park, Sue Kyung; Thomassen, Mads; Offit, Kenneth; Couch, Fergus J; Simard, Jacques; Easton, Douglas F; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Schmutzler, Rita K; Antoniou, Antonis C; Ottini, Laura

    2017-07-10

    Purpose BRCA1/2 mutations increase the risk of breast and prostate cancer in men. Common genetic variants modify cancer risks for female carriers of BRCA1/2 mutations. We investigated-for the first time to our knowledge-associations of common genetic variants with breast and prostate cancer risks for male carriers of BRCA1/ 2 mutations and implications for cancer risk prediction. Materials and Methods We genotyped 1,802 male carriers of BRCA1/2 mutations from the Consortium of Investigators of Modifiers of BRCA1/2 by using the custom Illumina OncoArray. We investigated the combined effects of established breast and prostate cancer susceptibility variants on cancer risks for male carriers of BRCA1/2 mutations by constructing weighted polygenic risk scores (PRSs) using published effect estimates as weights. Results In male carriers of BRCA1/2 mutations, PRS that was based on 88 female breast cancer susceptibility variants was associated with breast cancer risk (odds ratio per standard deviation of PRS, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.19 to 1.56; P = 8.6 × 10(-6)). Similarly, PRS that was based on 103 prostate cancer susceptibility variants was associated with prostate cancer risk (odds ratio per SD of PRS, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.35 to 1.81; P = 3.2 × 10(-9)). Large differences in absolute cancer risks were observed at the extremes of the PRS distribution. For example, prostate cancer risk by age 80 years at the 5th and 95th percentiles of the PRS varies from 7% to 26% for carriers of BRCA1 mutations and from 19% to 61% for carriers of BRCA2 mutations, respectively. Conclusion PRSs may provide informative cancer risk stratification for male carriers of BRCA1/2 mutations that might enable these men and their physicians to make informed decisions on the type and timing of breast and prostate cancer risk management.

  6. Application of a Propensity Score Approach for Risk Adjustment in Profiling Multiple Physician Groups on Asthma Care

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, I-Chan; Frangakis, Constantine; Dominici, Francesca; Diette, Gregory B; Wu, Albert W

    2005-01-01

    Objectives To develop a propensity score-based risk adjustment method to estimate the performance of 20 physician groups and to compare performance rankings using our method to a standard hierarchical regression-based risk adjustment method. Data Sources/Study Setting Mailed survey of patients from 20 California physician groups between July 1998 and February 1999. Study Design A cross-sectional analysis of physician group performance using patient satisfaction with asthma care. We compared the performance of the 20 physician groups using a novel propensity score-based risk adjustment method. More specifically, by using a multinomial logistic regression model we estimated for each patient the propensity scores, or probabilities, of having been treated by each of the 20 physician groups. To adjust for different distributions of characteristics across groups, patients cared for by a given group were first stratified into five strata based on their propensity of being in that group. Then, strata-specific performance was combined across the five strata. We compared our propensity score method to hierarchical model-based risk adjustment without using propensity scores. The impact of different risk-adjustment methods on performance was measured in terms of percentage changes in absolute and quintile ranking (AR, QR), and weighted κ of agreement on QR. Results The propensity score-based risk adjustment method balanced the distributions of all covariates among the 20 physician groups, providing evidence for validity. The propensity score-based method and the hierarchical model-based method without propensity scores provided substantially different rankings (75 percent of groups differed in AR, 50 percent differed in QR, weighted κ=0.69). Conclusions We developed and tested a propensity score method for profiling multiple physician groups. We found that our method could balance the distributions of covariates across groups and yielded substantially different profiles

  7. Scope Complexity Options Risks Excursions (SCORE) Version 3.0 Mathematical Description.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gearhart, Jared Lee [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Samberson, Jonell Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Shettigar, Subhasini [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jungels, John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Welch, Kimberly M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Dean A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-03-01

    The purpose of the Scope, Complexity, Options, Risks, Excursions (SCORE) model is to estimate the relative complexity of design variants of future warhead options. The results of this model allow those considering these options to understand the complexity tradeoffs between proposed warhead options. The core idea of SCORE is to divide a warhead option into a well- defined set of scope elements and then estimate the complexity of each scope element against a well understood reference system. The uncertainty associated with estimates can also be captured. A weighted summation of the relative complexity of each scope element is used to determine the total complexity of the proposed warhead option or portions of the warhead option (i.e., a National Work Breakdown Structure code). The SCORE analysis process is a growing multi-organizational Nuclear Security Enterprise (NSE) effort, under the management of the NA- 12 led Enterprise Modeling and Analysis Consortium (EMAC), that has provided the data elicitation, integration and computation needed to support the out-year Life Extension Program (LEP) cost estimates included in the Stockpile Stewardship Management Plan (SSMP).

  8. A risk-scoring scheme for suicide attempts among patients with bipolar disorder in a Thai patient cohort

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patumanond J

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Chidchanok Ruengorn1,2, Kittipong Sanichwankul3, Wirat Niwatananun2, Suwat Mahatnirunkul3, Wanida Pumpaisalchai3, Jayanton Patumanond11Clinical Epidemiology Program, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand; 2Department of Pharmaceutical Care, Faculty of Pharmacy, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand; 3Suanprung Psychiatric Hospital, Chiang Mai, ThailandBackground: In Thailand, risk factors associated with suicide attempts in bipolar disorder (BD are rarely investigated, nor has a specific risk-scoring scheme to assist in the identification of BD patients at risk for attempting suicide been proposed.Objective: To develop a simple risk-scoring scheme to identify patients with BD who may be at risk for attempting suicide.Methods: Medical files of 489 patients diagnosed with BD at Suanprung Psychiatric Hospital between October 2006 and May 2009 were reviewed. Cases included BD patients hospitalized due to attempted suicide (n = 58, and seven controls were selected (per suicide case among BD in- and out-patients who did not attempt suicide, with patients being visited the same day or within 1 week of case study (n = 431. Broad sociodemographic and clinical factors were gathered and analyzed using multivariate logistic regression, to obtain a set of risk factors. Scores for each indicator were weighted, assigned, and summed to create a total risk score, which was divided into low, moderate, and high-risk suicide attempt groups.Results: Six statistically significant indicators associated with suicide attempts were included in the risk-scoring scheme: depression, psychotic symptom(s, number of previous suicide attempts, stressful life event(s, medication adherence, and BD treatment years. A total risk score (possible range -1.5 to 11.5 explained an 88.6% probability of suicide attempts based on the receiver operating characteristic (ROC analysis. Likelihood ratios of suicide attempts with low risk scores (below 2

  9. Hypomineralized second primary molars: Prevalence data in Dutch 5-year-olds

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elfrink, M.E.C.; Schuller, A.A.; Weerheijm, K.L.; Veerkamp, J.S.J.

    2008-01-01

    The aim of this cross-sectional observational study was to report on the prevalence of hypomineralizations in second primary molars in 5-year-old Dutch children. In the study 386 (45% girls) 5-year-old Dutch children, all insured by a Health Insurance Fund, participated. Scoring criteria for molar i

  10. Hypomineralized second primary molars : prevalence data in Dutch 5-year-olds

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elfrink, M E C; Schuller, A A; Weerheijm, K L; Veerkamp, J S J

    2008-01-01

    The aim of this cross-sectional observational study was to report on the prevalence of hypomineralizations in second primary molars in 5-year-old Dutch children. In the study 386 (45% girls) 5-year-old Dutch children, all insured by a Health Insurance Fund, participated. Scoring criteria for molar i

  11. Hypomineralized second primary molars: prevalence data in Dutch 5-year-olds

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elfrink, M.E.C.; Schuller, A.A.; Weerheijm, K.L.; Veerkamp, J.S.J.

    2008-01-01

    The aim of this cross-sectional observational study was to report on the prevalence of hypomineralizations in second primary molars in 5-year-old Dutch children. In the study 386 (45% girls) 5-year-old Dutch children, all insured by a Health Insurance Fund, participated. Scoring criteria for molar i

  12. Mortality risk score prediction in an elderly population using machine learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Sherri

    2013-03-01

    Standard practice for prediction often relies on parametric regression methods. Interesting new methods from the machine learning literature have been introduced in epidemiologic studies, such as random forest and neural networks. However, a priori, an investigator will not know which algorithm to select and may wish to try several. Here I apply the super learner, an ensembling machine learning approach that combines multiple algorithms into a single algorithm and returns a prediction function with the best cross-validated mean squared error. Super learning is a generalization of stacking methods. I used super learning in the Study of Physical Performance and Age-Related Changes in Sonomans (SPPARCS) to predict death among 2,066 residents of Sonoma, California, aged 54 years or more during the period 1993-1999. The super learner for predicting death (risk score) improved upon all single algorithms in the collection of algorithms, although its performance was similar to that of several algorithms. Super learner outperformed the worst algorithm (neural networks) by 44% with respect to estimated cross-validated mean squared error and had an R2 value of 0.201. The improvement of super learner over random forest with respect to R2 was approximately 2-fold. Alternatives for risk score prediction include the super learner, which can provide improved performance.

  13. Paleolithic and Mediterranean diet pattern scores and risk of incident, sporadic colorectal adenomas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whalen, Kristine A; McCullough, Marji; Flanders, W Dana; Hartman, Terryl J; Judd, Suzanne; Bostick, Roberd M

    2014-12-01

    The Western dietary pattern is associated with higher risk of colorectal neoplasms. Evolutionary discordance could explain this association. We investigated associations of scores for 2 proposed diet patterns, the "Paleolithic" and the Mediterranean, with incident, sporadic colorectal adenomas in a case-control study of colorectal polyps conducted in Minnesota (1991-1994). Persons with no prior history of colorectal neoplasms completed comprehensive questionnaires prior to elective, outpatient endoscopy; of these individuals, 564 were identified as cases and 1,202 as endoscopy-negative controls. An additional group of community controls frequency-matched on age and sex (n = 535) was also recruited. Both diet scores were calculated for each participant and categorized into quintiles, and associations were estimated using unconditional logistic regression. The multivariable-adjusted odds ratios comparing persons in the highest quintiles of the Paleolithic and Mediterranean diet scores relative to the lowest quintiles were, respectively, 0.71 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.50, 1.02; Ptrend = 0.02) and 0.74 (95% CI: 0.54, 1.03; Ptrend = 0.05) when comparing cases with endoscopy-negative controls and 0.84 (95% CI: 0.56, 1.26; Ptrend = 0.14) and 0.77 (95% CI: 0.53, 1.11; Ptrend = 0.13) when comparing cases with community controls. These findings suggest that greater adherence to the Paleolithic diet pattern and greater adherence to the Mediterranean diet pattern may be similarly associated with lower risk of incident, sporadic colorectal adenomas. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  14. Validation of the Korean Version of the Lewy Body Composite Risk Score (K-LBCRS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryu, Hui Jin; Kim, Minyoung; Moon, Yeonsil; Choi, Yeji; Han, Jee-Young; Galvin, James E; Han, Seol-Heui

    2017-01-01

    The Lewy body composite risk score (LBCRS) is a useful clinical screening tool to help determine whether the dementia is related to Lewy body pathology. The purpose of this study is to verify reliability, validity, and diagnostic usefulness of Korean version of LBCRS (K-LBCRS). CDR-sum of boxes, Mini-Mental State Examination, and standardized scales related to cognition, mood, behavior, and motor function were administered to a total of 107 subjects, including 30 dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB), 54 Alzheimer's disease (AD), and 23 cognitively normal elderly people and their collateral informants. Internal consistency of the K-LBCRS was good with Cronbach's alpha of 0.85, and concurrent validity was also satisfactory, with K-LBCRS correlating highly with CDR-SB and other scales. The test-retest reliability was very high with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.97. The mean scores of K-LBCRS were significantly different among three groups, with DLB (6.2±2.4), AD (1.4±1.3), and controls (0.3±0.6). We identified a cut-off score of 3 as best to differentiate between DLB and AD, having AUC of 0.97 (95% CI 0.94-1.00), sensitivity 97%, specificity 83%, positive predictive value 76%, negative predictive value 98%, which is the same score suggested in the original study. This study shows K-LBCRS as a new useful screening tool for Korean DLB patients in clinical settings.

  15. Association between genetic risk scoring for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder with regional subcortical volumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caseras, X; Tansey, K E; Foley, S; Linden, D

    2015-01-01

    Previous research has shown coincident abnormal regional brain volume in patients with schizophrenia (SCZ) and bipolar disorder (BD) compared with controls. Whether these abnormalities are genetically driven or explained by secondary effects of the disorder or environmental factors is unknown. We aimed to investigate the association between genetic risk scoring (GRS) for SCZ and BD with volume of brain areas previously shown to be different between these clinical groups and healthy controls. We obtained subcortical brain volume measures and GRS for SCZ and BD from a sample of 274 healthy volunteers (71.4% females, mean age 24.7 (s.d. 6.9)). Volume of the globus pallidus was associated with the shared GRS between SCZ and BD, and also with the independent GRS for each of these disorders. Volume of the amygdala was associated with the non-shared GRS between SCZ and BD, and with the independent GRS for BD. Our results for volume of the globus pallidus support the idea of SCZ and BD sharing a common underlying neurobiological abnormality associated with a common genetic risk for both these disorders. Results for volume of the amygdala, though, would suggest the existence of a distinct mechanism only associated with genetic risk for BD. Finally, the lack of association between genetic risk and volume of most subcortical structures suggests that the volumetric differences reported in patient–control comparisons may not be genetically driven, but a consequence of the disorder or co-occurring environmental factors. PMID:26645627

  16. A Quantitative Climate-Match Score for Risk-Assessment Screening of Reptile and Amphibian Introductions

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Wilgen, Nicola J.; Roura-Pascual, Núria; Richardson, David M.

    2009-09-01

    Assessing climatic suitability provides a good preliminary estimate of the invasive potential of a species to inform risk assessment. We examined two approaches for bioclimatic modeling for 67 reptile and amphibian species introduced to California and Florida. First, we modeled the worldwide distribution of the biomes found in the introduced range to highlight similar areas worldwide from which invaders might arise. Second, we modeled potentially suitable environments for species based on climatic factors in their native ranges, using three sources of distribution data. Performance of the three datasets and both approaches were compared for each species. Climate match was positively correlated with species establishment success (maximum predicted suitability in the introduced range was more strongly correlated with establishment success than mean suitability). Data assembled from the Global Amphibian Assessment through NatureServe provided the most accurate models for amphibians, while ecoregion data compiled by the World Wide Fund for Nature yielded models which described reptile climatic suitability better than available point-locality data. We present three methods of assigning a climate-match score for use in risk assessment using both the mean and maximum climatic suitabilities. Managers may choose to use different methods depending on the stringency of the assessment and the available data, facilitating higher resolution and accuracy for herpetofaunal risk assessment. Climate-matching has inherent limitations and other factors pertaining to ecological interactions and life-history traits must also be considered for thorough risk assessment.

  17. Agreement between Framingham Risk Score and United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study Risk Engine in Identifying High Coronary Heart Disease Risk in North Indian Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bansal, Dipika; Nayakallu, Ramya S R; Gudala, Kapil; Vyamasuni, Rajavikram; Bhansali, Anil

    2015-08-01

    The aim of the study is to evaluate the concurrence between Framingham Risk score (FRS) and United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk engine in identifying coronary heart disease (CHD) risk in newly detected diabetes mellitus patients and to explore the characteristics associated with the discrepancy between them. A cross-sectional study involving 489 subjects newly diagnosed with type 2 diabetes mellitus was conducted. Agreement between FRS and UKPDS in classifying patients as high risk was calculated using kappa statistic. Subjects with discrepant scores between two algorithms were identified and associated variables were determined. The FRS identified 20.9% subjects (range, 17.5 to 24.7) as high-risk while UKPDS identified 21.75% (range, 18.3 to 25.5) as high-risk. Discrepancy was observed in 17.9% (range, 14.7 to 21.7) subjects. About 9.4% had high risk by UKPDS but not FRS, and 8.6% had high risk by FRS but not UKPDS. The best agreement was observed at high-risk threshold of 20% for both (κ=0.463). Analysis showed that subjects having high risk on FRS but not UKPDS were elderly females having raised systolic and diastolic blood pressure. Patients with high risk on UKPDS but not FRS were males and have high glycosylated hemoglobin. The FRS and UKPDS (threshold 20%) identified different populations as being at high risk, though the agreement between them was fairly good. The concurrence of a number of factors (e.g., male sex, low high density lipoprotein cholesterol, and smoking) in both algorithms should be regarded as increasing the CHD risk. However, longitudinal follow-up is required to form firm conclusions.

  18. Alguns fatores associados a excesso de peso, baixa estatura e déficit de peso em menores de 5 anos Some risk factors associated with overweight, stunting and wasting among children under 5 years old

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Márcia R. Vitolo

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Examinar fatores socioeconômicos e outras condições de vida familiar associadas a excesso de peso, baixa estatura e baixo peso para a estatura em menores de 5 anos. MÉTODOS: Estudo transversal avaliou 3.957 crianças entre 1 mês e 5 anos de idade durante campanha nacional de imunização no município de São Leopoldo (RS em 2002. As condições socioeconômicas e de saneamento das áreas de abrangência das unidades de saúde foram agrupadas por análise de cluster dos setores do censo populacional de 2001. RESULTADOS: Déficit de peso para estatura ocorreu em 2,6% das crianças, baixa estatura em 9,1% e excesso de peso em 9,8%. A regressão logística multivariada sugere que os fatores associados à chance de excesso de peso foram: área de condições socioeconômicas alta (RC = 1,47; IC95% 1,09-1,96, filhos únicos (RC = 1,44; IC95% 1,00-2,07 e peso ao nascer ≥ 2.500 g (RC = 2,21; IC95%1,27-3,83. A chance de déficit de peso associou-se ao baixo peso ao nascer (RC = 3,46; IC95% 2,06-5,80 e idade da mãe OBJECTIVE: To explore whether socioeconomic and sanitary conditions, maternal and child factors are associated with overweight, stunting, and wasting in children under five year old in the city of São Leopoldo, southern Brazil. METHODS: Cross-sectional study of 3,957 children aged 1 month to 5 years conducted in all primary care services of the city during the National Children's Vaccination Day in 2002. Maternal and child factors were assessed by a questionnaire. Children's height and weight were measured. Cluster analysis was used to group the areas served by the primary care services according to socioeconomic and sanitary conditions of the census tracts assessed by the 2001 National Census. RESULTS: Wasting was observed in 2.6% of children, stunting in 9.1% and overweight in 9.8%. The multivariable logistic regression model suggests that overweight was associated with higher socioeconomic status and better sanitation of

  19. A competing risk approach for the European Heart SCORE model based on cause-specific and all-cause mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Støvring, Henrik; Harmsen, Charlotte G; Wisløff, Torbjørn;

    2013-01-01

    pressure, and total cholesterol level. The SCORE model, however, is not mathematically consistent and does not estimate all-cause mortality. Our aim is to modify the SCORE model to allow consistent estimation of both CVD-specific and all-cause mortality. Methods: Using a competing risk approach, we first...

  20. An obesity genetic risk score is associated with metabolic syndrome in Chinese children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xiaoyuan; Xi, Bo; Shen, Yue; Wu, Lijun; Hou, Dongqing; Cheng, Hong; Mi, Jie

    2014-02-10

    Recent genome-wide association studies have identified several single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with body mass index (BMI)/obesity. In this study, we aim to examine the associations of obesity related loci with risk of metabolic syndrome (MetS) in a children population from China. A total of 431 children with MetS and 3046 controls were identified based on the modified ATPIII definition. 11 SNPs (FTO rs9939609, MC4R rs17782313, GNPDA2 rs10938397, BDNF rs6265, FAIM2 rs7138803, NPC1 rs1805081, SEC16B rs10913469, SH2B1 rs4788102, PCSK1rs6235, KCTD15 rs29941, BAT2 rs2844479) were genotyped by TaqMan 7900. Of 11 SNPs, GNPDA2 rs10938397, BDNF rs6265, and FAIM2 rs7138803 were nominally associated with risk of MetS (GNPDA2 rs10938397: odds ratio (OR)=1.21, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.04-1.40, P=0.016; BDNF rs6265: OR=1.19, 95% CI=1.03-1.39, P=0.021; FAIM2 rs7138803: OR=1.20, 95% CI=1.02-1.40, P=0.025); genetic risk score (GRS) was significantly associated with risk of MetS (OR=1.09, 95% CI=1.04-1.15, P=5.26×10(-4)). After further adjustment for BMI, none of SNPs were associated with risk of MetS (all P>0.05); the association between GRS and risk of MetS remained nominally (OR=1.02, 95%CI=0.96-1.08, P=0.557). However, after correction for multiple testing, only GRS was statistically associated with risk of MetS in the model without adjustment for BMI. The present study demonstrated that there were nominal associations of GNPDA2 rs10938397, BDNF rs6265, and FAIM2 rs7138803 with risk of MetS. The SNPs in combination have a significant effect on risk of MetS among Chinese children. These associations above were mediated by adiposity.

  1. Development of an Open-Heart Intraoperative Risk Scoring Model for Predicting a Prolonged Intensive Care Unit Stay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sirirat Tribuddharat

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Based on a pilot study with 34 patients, applying the modified sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA score intraoperatively could predict a prolonged ICU stay, albeit with only 4 risk factors. Our objective was to develop a practicable intraoperative model for predicting prolonged ICU stay which included more relevant risk factors. Methods. An extensive literature review identified 6 other intraoperative risk factors affecting prolonged ICU stay. Another 168 patients were then recruited for whom all 10 risk factors were extracted and analyzed by logistic regression to form the new prognostic model. Results. The multivariate logistic regression analysis retained only 6 significant risk factors in the model: age ≥ 60 years, PaO2/FiO2 ratio ≤ 200 mmHg, platelet count ≤ 120,000/mm3, requirement for inotrope/vasopressor ≥ 2 drugs, serum potassium ≤ 3.2 mEq/L, and atrial fibrillation grading ≥2. This model was then simplified into the Open-Heart Intraoperative Risk (OHIR score, comprising the same 6 risk factors for a total score of 7—a score of ≥3 indicating a likely prolonged ICU stay (AUC for ROC of 0.746. Conclusions. We developed a new, easy to calculate OHIR scoring system for predicting prolonged ICU stay as early as 3 hours after CPB. It comprises 6 risk factors, 5 of which can be manipulated intraoperatively.

  2. Framingham Risk Score underestimates cardiovascular disease risk in severe psoriatic patients: implications in cardiovascular risk factors management and primary prevention of cardiovascular disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres, Tiago; Sales, Rita; Vasconcelos, Carlos; Martins da Silva, Berta; Selores, Manuela

    2013-11-01

    Severe psoriasis has been associated with increase cardiovascular mortality, due to a higher prevalence of traditional cardiovascular risk factors and premature atherosclerosis, as a consequence of its systemic inflammation. Recently, it has been estimated that severe psoriasis may confer an increased 6.2% on long-term risk of cardiovascular disease based on Framingham Risk Score, which can have practical implications in the treatment of cardiovascular risk factors and primary prevention of cardiovascular disease, as treatment guidelines account for the risk of cardiovascular disease in treatment goals. The aim of this study was to analyze the influence of the attributable risk of severe psoriasis on long-term risk of cardiovascular disease and its implication on the correct treatment of cardiovascular risk factors and primary prevention of cardiovascular disease on a real-world cohort of patients. One hundred severe psoriasis patients without psoriatic arthritis or previous cardiovascular disease were evaluated and it was found that more than half of the patients were reclassified to a higher cardiovascular risk category with important clinical implications on the correct management of their cardiovascular risk factors and primary prevention of cardiovascular disease, as a considerable proportion of patients with hypertension, hypercholesterolemia and coronary heart disease equivalent risk were not being correctly managed.

  3. A Novel Risk Score to the Prediction of 10-year Risk for Coronary Artery Disease Among the Elderly in Beijing Based on Competing Risk Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Long; Tang, Zhe; Li, Xia; Luo, Yanxia; Guo, Jin; Li, Haibin; Liu, Xiangtong; Tao, Lixin; Yan, Aoshuang; Guo, Xiuhua

    2016-03-01

    The study aimed to construct a risk prediction model for coronary artery disease (CAD) based on competing risk model among the elderly in Beijing and develop a user-friendly CAD risk score tool. We used competing risk model to evaluate the risk of developing a first CAD event. On the basis of the risk factors that were included in the competing risk model, we constructed the CAD risk prediction model with Cox proportional hazard model. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and time-dependent area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the discrimination ability of the both methods. Calibration plots were applied to assess the calibration ability and adjusted for the competing risk of non-CAD death. Net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were applied to quantify the improvement contributed by the new risk factors. Internal validation of predictive accuracy was performed using 1000 times of bootstrap re-sampling. Of the 1775 participants without CAD at baseline, 473 incident cases of CAD were documented for a 20-year follow-up. Time-dependent AUCs for men and women at t = 10 years were 0.841 [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.806-0.877], 0.804 (95% CI: 0.768-0.839) in Fine and Gray model, 0.784 (95% CI: 0.738-0.830), 0.733 (95% CI: 0.692-0.775) in Cox proportional hazard model. The competing risk model was significantly superior to Cox proportional hazard model on discrimination and calibration. The cut-off values of the risk score that marked the difference between low-risk and high-risk patients were 34 points for men and 30 points for women, which have good sensitivity and specificity. A sex-specific multivariable risk factor algorithm-based competing risk model has been developed on the basis of an elderly Chinese cohort, which could be applied to predict an individual's risk and provide a useful guide to identify the groups at a high risk for CAD among the Chinese adults over 55

  4. A Novel Risk Score to the Prediction of 10-year Risk for Coronary Artery Disease Among the Elderly in Beijing Based on Competing Risk Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Long; Tang, Zhe; Li, Xia; Luo, Yanxia; Guo, Jin; Li, Haibin; Liu, Xiangtong; Tao, Lixin; Yan, Aoshuang; Guo, Xiuhua

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The study aimed to construct a risk prediction model for coronary artery disease (CAD) based on competing risk model among the elderly in Beijing and develop a user-friendly CAD risk score tool. We used competing risk model to evaluate the risk of developing a first CAD event. On the basis of the risk factors that were included in the competing risk model, we constructed the CAD risk prediction model with Cox proportional hazard model. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and time-dependent area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the discrimination ability of the both methods. Calibration plots were applied to assess the calibration ability and adjusted for the competing risk of non-CAD death. Net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were applied to quantify the improvement contributed by the new risk factors. Internal validation of predictive accuracy was performed using 1000 times of bootstrap re-sampling. Of the 1775 participants without CAD at baseline, 473 incident cases of CAD were documented for a 20-year follow-up. Time-dependent AUCs for men and women at t = 10 years were 0.841 [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.806–0.877], 0.804 (95% CI: 0.768–0.839) in Fine and Gray model, 0.784 (95% CI: 0.738–0.830), 0.733 (95% CI: 0.692–0.775) in Cox proportional hazard model. The competing risk model was significantly superior to Cox proportional hazard model on discrimination and calibration. The cut-off values of the risk score that marked the difference between low-risk and high-risk patients were 34 points for men and 30 points for women, which have good sensitivity and specificity. A sex-specific multivariable risk factor algorithm-based competing risk model has been developed on the basis of an elderly Chinese cohort, which could be applied to predict an individual's risk and provide a useful guide to identify the groups at a high risk for CAD among the Chinese

  5. Oxidative balance scores and risk of incident colorectal cancer in a US prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dash, Chiranjeev; Bostick, Roberd M; Goodman, Michael; Flanders, W Dana; Patel, Roshni; Shah, Roma; Campbell, Peter T; McCullough, Marjorie L

    2015-04-15

    Although oxidative stress is implicated in colorectal carcinogenesis, human studies on associations of individual prooxidants and antioxidants with colorectal cancer (CRC) have been inconclusive. We incorporated individual environmental factors known to affect oxidative stress into 4 oxidative balance scores (OBS) and investigated their associations with CRC in the Cancer Prevention Study II Nutrition Cohort. During 1999-2009, a total of 1,109 incident CRC cases were identified among 80,063 participants in the Nutrition Cohort who had completed detailed questionnaires. Four OBS with different weighting methods (equal weights, literature review-based, a posteriori data-based, and weights based on Bayesian analysis) were created by combining 16 dietary and nondietary lifestyle factors. Higher values for all 4 OBS, representing more antioxidant exposures than prooxidant exposures, were associated with 41%-53% lower risks of CRC; for example, the relative risk for the highest OBS quartile versus the lowest in the Bayesian analysis was 0.50 (95% confidence interval: 0.41, 0.61). The associations were more modest when OBS was restricted to either dietary or nondietary components. These results, obtained using comprehensive summary measures of oxidative balance-especially considering the similarity of the findings derived using the different weighting methods-support the hypothesis that a predominance of antioxidant lifestyle exposures (both dietary and nondietary) over prooxidant lifestyle exposures reduces risk of CRC.

  6. Association between Knee Osteoarthritis, Cardiovascular Risk Factors, and the Framingham Risk Score in South Koreans: A Cross-Sectional Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Ho Sun; Shin, Joon-Shik; Lee, Jinho; Lee, Yoon Jae; Kim, Me-riong; Bae, Young-Hyeon; Park, Ki Byung; Lee, Eun-Jung; Kim, Joo-Hee

    2016-01-01

    Background Osteoarthritis is a significant burden on personal health and for social cost, and its prevalence is rising. Recent research has revealed an association between osteoarthritis and cardiovascular disease, and this study uses the Framingham risk score (FRS), which is widely used as a composite index of cardiovascular risk factors, to investigate the association between osteoarthritis and various cardiovascular risk factors. Methods A total 9,514 participants aged 50 years or older who received knee X-ray diagnosis of the 5th Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (total surveyees = 24,173) released by the Korean Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was included for analysis. Knee osteoarthritis patients were defined as participants with K-L grade ≥2 on knee X-ray regardless of knee pain. The association between major cardiovascular risk factors (blood pressure, diabetes, cholesterol, and smoking habits), FRS, and knee osteoarthritis was analyzed, adjusting for various covariates. Results Prevalence of knee osteoarthritis in Koreans aged ≥50 years was 36.6%, and higher in women (men: 24.9%, women: 45.4%). Prevalence of knee osteoarthritis in participants with hypertension was significantly higher than those without hypertension (fully adjusted odds ratio (OR) 1.26; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.08–1.48). Knee osteoarthritis prevalence was also higher in participants with impaired fasting glucose or diabetes than those without (age, sex adjusted OR 1.19; 95% CI 1.00–1.41). Also, OR values increased statistically significantly with FRS as a continuous variable (fully adjusted OR 1.007; 95% CI 1.00–1.01). Conclusions Prevalence of knee osteoarthritis was associated with hypertension and diabetes, which are major cardiovascular risk factors, and the FRS. Further studies on FRS pertaining to its relationship with osteoarthritis are warranted. PMID:27764239

  7. Neonatal status: an objective scoring method for identifying infants at risk for poor outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salamy, A; Davis, S; Eldredge, L; Wakeley, A; Tooley, W H

    1988-01-01

    The likelihood of sustaining neurological, sensory or cognitive deficits is considerably greater for very low birthweight (VLBW) infants who require intensive care in early postnatal life than those without major neonatal illness. Identifying which, if any, medical events are responsible for an adverse outcome is most difficult in the face of multiple concurrent complications. In this research, a principal components analysis was performed in order to arrive at a set of orthogonal variables which succinctly described clinical involvement in the nursery. With this procedure, a single hypothetical factor depicting neonatal status (NS) was computed. Principal component scores were then generated for NS and assigned to 252 VLBW (less than 1500 g) infants. These subjects were followed prospectively from birth to 4 years of age. Standardized measures of neurological, sensory and intellectual function were regularly administered. Neonatal status was shown to be significantly correlated with the various test results and predictive of long-term development. When subjects were divided into quartiles with respect to NS, a specific subgroup was identified as "at high risk" for poor outcome. Those subjects falling into the lower quartile incurred more neurological abnormalities persisting beyond the first year. They also suffered a higher incidence of intracranial hemorrhage and sensori-neural hearing loss. In addition, the lower 25%, as a group, scored well below all others on traditional tests of mental ability. These differences were sustained throughout infancy and early childhood and could not be attributed to a number of demographic variables including sex, gestational age, birthweight, Apgar scores or parental educational level.

  8. Could symptoms and risk factors diagnose COPD? Development of a Diagnosis Score for COPD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salameh P

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Pascale Salameh,1 Georges Khayat,2 Mirna Waked31Faculties of Pharmacy and of Public Health, Lebanese University, Beirut, 2Faculty of Medicine, Hôtel Dieu de France Hospital, Beirut and Saint Joseph University, Beirut, 3Faculty of Medicine, Saint George Hospital, Beirut and Balamand University, Beirut, LebanonBackground: Diagnosing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD without spirometry is still a challenge. Our objective in this study was to develop a scale for diagnosis of COPD.Methods: Data were taken from a cross-sectional epidemiological study. After reducing chronic respiratory symptoms, a logistic regression was used to select risk factors for and symptoms of COPD. The rounded coefficients generated a Diagnosis Score for COPD (DS-COPD, which was dichotomized and differentiated between COPD and other individuals with respiratory symptoms.Results: We constructed a tool for COPD diagnosis with good properties, comprising 12 items. The area under the curve was 0.849; the positive predictive value was 76% if the DS-COPD was >20 and the negative predictive value was 97% if the DS-COPD was <10. A DS-COPD of 10–19 represented a zone mostly suggestive of no COPD (77%. The score was also inversely correlated with forced expiratory volume in 1 second/forced vital capacity.Conclusion: In this study, a tool for diagnosis of COPD was constructed with good properties for use in the epidemiological setting, mainly in cases of low or high scoring. It would be of particular interest in the primary care setting, where spirometry may not be available. Prospective studies and application in clinical settings would be necessary to validate this scale further.Keywords: diagnosis, scale, development, spirometry

  9. An Update on the Utility of Coronary Artery Calcium Scoring for Coronary Heart Disease and Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kianoush, Sina; Al Rifai, Mahmoud; Cainzos-Achirica, Miguel; Umapathi, Priya; Graham, Garth; Blumenthal, Roger S; Nasir, Khurram; Blaha, Michael J

    2016-03-01

    Estimating cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk is necessary for determining the potential net benefit of primary prevention pharmacotherapy. Risk estimation relying exclusively on traditional CVD risk factors may misclassify risk, resulting in both undertreatment and overtreatment. Coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring personalizes risk prediction through direct visualization of calcified coronary atherosclerotic plaques and provides improved accuracy for coronary heart disease (CHD) or CVD risk estimation. In this review, we discuss the most recent studies on CAC, which unlike historical studies, focus sharply on clinical application. We describe the MESA CHD risk calculator, a recently developed CAC-based 10-year CHD risk estimator, which can help guide preventive therapy allocation by better identifying both high- and low-risk individuals. In closing, we discuss calcium density, regional distribution of CAC, and extra-coronary calcification, which represent the future of CAC and CVD risk assessment research and may lead to further improvements in risk prediction.

  10. The "Dry-Run" Analysis: A Method for Evaluating Risk Scores for Confounding Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wyss, Richard; Hansen, Ben B; Ellis, Alan R; Gagne, Joshua J; Desai, Rishi J; Glynn, Robert J; Stürmer, Til

    2017-03-06

    A propensity score (PS) model's ability to control confounding can be assessed by evaluating covariate balance across exposure groups after PS adjustment. The optimal strategy for evaluating a disease risk score (DRS) model's ability to control confounding is less clear. DRS models cannot be evaluated through balance checks within the full population, and they are usually assessed through prediction diagnostics and goodness-of-fit tests. A proposed alternative is the "dry-run" analysis, which divides the unexposed population into "pseudo-exposed" and "pseudo-unexposed" groups so that differences on observed covariates resemble differences between the actual exposed and unexposed populations. With no exposure effect separating the pseudo-exposed and pseudo-unexposed groups, a DRS model is evaluated by its ability to retrieve an unconfounded null estimate after adjustment in this pseudo-population. We used simulations and an empirical example to compare traditional DRS performance metrics with the dry-run validation. In simulations, the dry run often improved assessment of confounding control, compared with the C statistic and goodness-of-fit tests. In the empirical example, PS and DRS matching gave similar results and showed good performance in terms of covariate balance (PS matching) and controlling confounding in the dry-run analysis (DRS matching). The dry-run analysis may prove useful in evaluating confounding control through DRS models.

  11. Scoring life insurance applicants' laboratory results, blood pressure and build to predict all-cause mortality risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fulks, Michael; Stout, Robert L; Dolan, Vera F

    2012-01-01

    Evaluate the degree of medium to longer term mortality prediction possible from a scoring system covering all laboratory testing used for life insurance applicants, as well as blood pressure and build measurements. Using the results of testing for life insurance applicants who reported a Social Security number in conjunction with the Social Security Death Master File, the mortality associated with each test result was defined by age and sex. The individual mortality scores for each test were combined for each individual and a composite mortality risk score was developed. This score was then tested against the insurance applicant dataset to evaluate its ability to discriminate risk across age and sex. The composite risk score was highly predictive of all-cause mortality risk in a linear manner from the best to worst quintile of scores in a nearly identical fashion for each sex and decade of age. Laboratory studies, blood pressure and build from life insurance applicants can be used to create scoring that predicts all-cause mortality across age and sex. Such an approach may hold promise for preventative health screening as well.

  12. Prediction of coronary risk by SYNTAX and derived scores: synergy between percutaneous coronary intervention with taxus and cardiac surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yadav, Mayank; Palmerini, Tullio; Caixeta, Adriano; Madhavan, Mahesh V; Sanidas, Elias; Kirtane, Ajay J; Stone, Gregg W; Généreux, Philippe

    2013-10-01

    The introduction of the SYNTAX (Synergy Between PCI With Taxus and Cardiac Surgery) score has prompted a renewed interest for angiographic risk stratification in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention. Syntax score is based on qualitative and quantitative characterization of coronary artery disease by including 11 angiographic variables that take into consideration lesion location and characteristics. Thus far, this score has been shown to be an effective tool to risk-stratify patients with complex coronary artery disease undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention in the landmark SYNTAX trial, as well as in other clinical settings. This review provides an overview of its current applications, including its integration with other nonangiographic clinical scores, and explores future applications of the SYNTAX and derived scores.

  13. A four-year cardiovascular risk score for type 2 diabetic inpatients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dolores Ramírez-Prado

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available As cardiovascular risk tables currently in use were constructed using data from the general population, the cardiovascular risk of patients admitted via the hospital emergency department may be underestimated. Accordingly, we constructed a predictive model for the appearance of cardiovascular diseases in patients with type 2 diabetes admitted via the emergency department. We undertook a four-year follow-up of a cohort of 112 adult patients with type 2 diabetes admitted via the emergency department for any cause except patients admitted with acute myocardial infarction, stroke, cancer, or a palliative status. The sample was selected randomly between 2010 and 2012. The primary outcome was time to cardiovascular disease. Other variables (at baseline were gender, age, heart failure, renal failure, depression, asthma/chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, hypertension, dyslipidaemia, insulin, smoking, admission for cardiovascular causes, pills per day, walking habit, fasting blood glucose and creatinine. A cardiovascular risk table was constructed based on the score to estimate the likelihood of cardiovascular disease. Risk groups were established and the c-statistic was calculated. Over a mean follow-up of 2.31 years, 39 patients had cardiovascular disease (34.8%, 95% CI [26.0–43.6%]. Predictive factors were gender, age, hypertension, renal failure, insulin, admission due to cardiovascular reasons and walking habit. The c-statistic was 0.734 (standard error: 0.049. After validation, this study will provide a tool for the primary health care services to enable the short-term prediction of cardiovascular disease after hospital discharge in patients with type 2 diabetes admitted via the emergency department.

  14. The coronary calcium score is a more accurate predictor of significant coronary stenosis than conventional risk factors in symptomatic patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nicoll, R; Wiklund, U; Zhao, Y;

    2016-01-01

    risk factor assessment, computed tomographic coronary angiogram (CTCA) or conventional angiography and a CT scan for coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring. 1539 (27.9%) patients had significant stenosis, 5.5% of whom had zero CAC. In 5074 patients, multiple binary regression showed the most important...... predictor of significant stenosis to be male gender (B=1.07) followed by diabetes mellitus (B=0.70) smoking, hypercholesterolaemia, hypertension, family history of CAD and age but not obesity. When the log transformed CAC score was included, it became the most powerful predictor (B=1.25), followed by male...... gender (B=0.48), diabetes, smoking, family history and age but hypercholesterolaemia and hypertension lost significance. The CAC score is a more accurate predictor of >50% stenosis than risk factors regardless of the means of assessment of stenosis. The sensitivity of risk factors, CAC score...

  15. Combination of European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) and Cardiac Surgery Score (CASUS) to Improve Outcome Prediction in Cardiac Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doerr, Fabian; Heldwein, Matthias B; Bayer, Ole; Sabashnikov, Anton; Weymann, Alexander; Dohmen, Pascal M; Wahlers, Thorsten; Hekmat, Khosro

    2015-08-17

    BACKGROUND We hypothesized that the combination of a preoperative and a postoperative scoring system would improve the accuracy of mortality prediction and therefore combined the preoperative 'additive EuroSCORE' (European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation) with the postoperative 'additive CASUS' (Cardiac Surgery Score) to form the 'modified CASUS'. MATERIAL AND METHODS We included all consecutive adult patients after cardiac surgery during January 2007 and December 2010 in our prospective study. Our single-centre study was conducted in a German general referral university hospital. The original additive and the 'modified CASUS' were tested using calibration and discrimination statistics. We compared the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver characteristic curves (ROC) by DeLong's method and calculated overall correct classification (OCC) values. RESULTS The mean age among the total of 5207 patients was 67.2 ± 10.9 years. Whilst the ICU mortality was 5.9% we observed a mean length of ICU stay of 4.6 ± 7.0 days. Both models demonstrated excellent discriminatory power (mean AUC of 'modified CASUS': ≥ 0.929; 'additive CASUS': ≥ 0.920), with no significant differences according to DeLong. Neither model showed a significant p-value (cardiac surgery by combining a preoperative and a postoperative scoring system. A separate calculation of the two individual elements is therefore recommended.

  16. Laboratory-based and office-based risk scores and charts to predict 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in 182 countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ueda, Peter; Woodward, Mark; Lu, Yuan

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Worldwide implementation of risk-based cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention requires risk prediction tools that are contemporarily recalibrated for the target country and can be used where laboratory measurements are unavailable. We present two cardiovascular risk scores, with and ......BACKGROUND: Worldwide implementation of risk-based cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention requires risk prediction tools that are contemporarily recalibrated for the target country and can be used where laboratory measurements are unavailable. We present two cardiovascular risk scores...... for CVD prevention. We estimated the proportion of men and women who were similarly categorised as high risk or low risk by the two risk scores. FINDINGS: Predicted risks for the same risk factor profile were generally lower in HICs than in LMICs, with the highest risks in countries in central...... and southeast Asia and eastern Europe, including China and Russia. In HICs, the proportion of people aged 40-64 years at high risk of CVD ranged from 1% for South Korean women to 42% for Czech men (using a ≥10% risk threshold), and in low-income countries ranged from 2% in Uganda (men and women) to 13...

  17. Computed Tomography Coronary Artery Calcium Scoring Review of Evidence Base and Cost-effectiveness in Cardiovascular Risk Prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vliegenthart, Rozemarijn; Morris, Pamela B.

    2012-01-01

    Cardiovascular risk factor-scoring algorithms may fall short in identifying asymptomatic individuals who will subsequently suffer a coronary event. It is generally thought that evaluation of the extent of the atherosclerotic plaque and total plaque burden can improve cardiovascular risk stratificati

  18. Modelo predictivo de "score" de calcio alto en pacientes con factores de riesgo cardiovascular Predictive model of high calcium score in patients with cardiovascular risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gloria Franco

    2007-12-01

    prueba del score de calcio coronario a un paciente con factores de riesgo cardiovascular. Se puede observar que muchos de los factores de riesgo que se correlacionan con un valor elevado de "score" de calcio coronario pueden ser modificables: cesar el hábito de fumar o realizar ejercicio.Introduction: it has been found through multiple studies that coronary calcium score is a good predictor of coronary disease in asymptomatic individuals with one or more cardiovascular risk factors; therefore it would be ideal to perform this test in order to stratify its risk, but due to economic factors this is not possible in most cases. The model presented allows predicting the probability that a patient may have a high coronary calcium score by means of his cardiovascular risk factors. The originality of the model is that it also comprises "protector" factors that diminish such probability. Methods: study of cases and controls in asymptomatic patients with cardiovascular risk factors to whom a PCC had been performed. The cases are patients with coronary calcium score greater than percentile 75 for his age and gender; the control case relationship is 2:1. Results: ages ranged between 35 and 75 years; 14.4% were female; 44.4% had family history of CHD; 34.4% were hypertensive; 38.9% had high total cholesterol; 24.4% had HDL cholesterol under 40 mg/dl; 33.3% had LDL cholesterol greater than 160 mg/dl; 25.6% were cigarette smokers; 23.3% were sedentary; 13.3% were periodical alcohol consumers; 15.6% were obese (BMI > 30; 18.9% exercised periodically and 34.4% received statins. Cardiovascular risk factors correlated with high coronary calcium score are recorded in table 1. In the logistic regression model, factors having a p table 2 are obtained. Expression for the model would be: The values of ci values are 1, if the factor is present and 0 if it is not. Conclusions: this model does not pretend to replace stratification through Framinghan model; on the contrary, it is a complement that

  19. Polygenic risk score and heritability estimates reveals a genetic relationship between ASD and OCD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, W; Samuels, J F; Wang, Y; Cao, H; Ritter, M; Nestadt, P S; Krasnow, J; Greenberg, B D; Fyer, A J; McCracken, J T; Geller, D A; Murphy, D L; Knowles, J A; Grados, M A; Riddle, M A; Rasmussen, S A; McLaughlin, N C; Nurmi, E L; Askland, K D; Cullen, B A; Piacentini, J; Pauls, D L; Bienvenu, O J; Stewart, S E; Goes, F S; Maher, B; Pulver, A E; Valle, D; Mattheisen, M; Qian, J; Nestadt, G; Shugart, Y Y

    2017-07-01

    Obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) and Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) are both highly heritable neurodevelopmental disorders that conceivably share genetic risk factors. However, the underlying genetic determinants remain largely unknown. In this work, the authors describe a combined genome-wide association study (GWAS) of ASD and OCD. The OCD dataset includes 2998 individuals in nuclear families. The ASD dataset includes 6898 individuals in case-parents trios. GWAS summary statistics were examined for potential enrichment of functional variants associated with gene expression levels in brain regions. The top ranked SNP is rs4785741 (chromosome 16) with P value=6.9×10(-7) in our re-analysis. Polygenic risk score analyses were conducted to investigate the genetic relationship within and across the two disorders. These analyses identified a significant polygenic component of ASD, predicting 0.11% of the phenotypic variance in an independent OCD data set. In addition, we examined the genomic architecture of ASD and OCD by estimating heritability on different chromosomes and different allele frequencies, analyzing genome-wide common variant data by using the Genome-wide Complex Trait Analysis (GCTA) program. The estimated global heritability of OCD is 0.427 (se=0.093) and 0.174 (se=0.053) for ASD in these imputed data. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  20. [Dystocia risk score: a decision making tool to combat maternal mortality].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ndiaye, Papa; Niang, Khadim; Diallo, Issakha

    2013-01-01

    As a way to prevent maternal mortality and stillbirth, the dystocia risk score includes three components: a left column provides a list of eight characteristics to check for in the woman; an upper horizontal section provides a checklist of possible outcomes of the pregnancy itself: and a rectangular grid indicates the prognosis in three zones: a large red (dangerous), a medium-sized grey (doubtful) and a small blue (hopeful). The DRS is positive if there is at least one cross in the dangerous zone and/or two crosses in the doubtful zone (it indicates that the woman should be referred to a center specialized in obstetric emergency care); elsewhere, the DRS is negative. The validation test gives good results (sensitivity=83.61%, specificity=90.05%, positive predictive value=72.34%, and negative predictive value=94.04%). Its large-scale use would accelerate the identification of pregnant women with a high risk of dystocia. Their timely referral to specialized emergency obstetrics centers would increase the efficacy of care and reduce the levels of maternal mortality and stillbirth.

  1. The correction of TTO-scores for utility curvature using a risk-free utility elicitation method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attema, Arthur E; Brouwer, Werner B F

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes and employs a new method to correct time tradeoff (TTO)-scores for utility of life duration curvature. In contrast to most previous attempts to do so, it uses a risk-free method that corresponds well to the risk-free properties of the TTO-method. In addition, the method is robust to several biases that occur under methods that incorporate risk. Our results show a significant degree of curvature in utility of life duration and therefore a clear bias in TTO-scores. The risk-free method seems to be useful to correct TTO-scores for this influence and leads to significantly higher quality-adjustment factors.

  2. A Novel Risk Score in Predicting Failure or Success for Antegrade Approach to Percutaneous Coronary Intervention of Chronic Total Occlusion: Antegrade CTO Score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Namazi, Mohammad Hasan; Serati, Ali Reza; Vakili, Hosein; Safi, Morteza; Parsa, Saeed Ali Pour; Saadat, Habibollah; Taherkhani, Maryam; Emami, Sepideh; Pedari, Shamseddin; Vatanparast, Masoomeh; Movahed, Mohammad Reza

    2017-06-01

    Total occlusion of a coronary artery for more than 3 months is defined as chronic total occlusion (CTO). The goal of this study was to develop a risk score in predicting failure or success during attempted percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) of CTO lesions using antegrade approach. This study was based on retrospective analyses of clinical and angiographic characteristics of CTO lesions that were assessed between February 2012 and February 2014. Success rate was defined as passing through occlusion with successful stent deployment using an antegrade approach. A total of 188 patients were studied. Mean ± SD age was 59 ± 9 years. Failure rate was 33%. In a stepwise multivariate regression analysis, bridging collaterals (OR = 6.7, CI = 1.97-23.17, score = 2), absence of stump (OR = 5.8, CI = 1.95-17.9, score = 2), presence of calcification (OR = 3.21, CI = 1.46-7.07, score = 1), presence of bending (OR = 2.8, CI = 1.28-6.10, score = 1), presence of near side branch (OR = 2.7, CI = 1.08-6.57, score = 1), and absence of retrograde filling (OR = 2.5, CI = 1.03-6.17, score = 1) were independent predictors of PCI failure. A score of 7 or more was associated with 100% failure rate whereas a score of 2 or less was associated with over 80% success rate. Most factors associated with failure of CTO-PCI are related to lesion characteristics. A new risk score (range 0-8) is developed to predict CTO-PCI success or failure rate during antegrade approach as a guide before attempting PCI of CTO lesions.

  3. A risk score for predicting 30-day mortality in heart failure patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, Charlotte; Gislason, Gunnar H; Hlatky, Mark A;

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Heart failure is an established risk factor for poor outcomes in patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery, yet risk stratification remains a clinical challenge. We developed an index for 30-day mortality risk prediction in this particular group. METHODS AND RESULTS: All individuals...... with heart failure undergoing non-cardiac surgery between October 23 2004 and October 31 2011 were included from Danish administrative registers (n = 16 827). In total, 1787 (10.6%) died within 30 days. In a simple risk score based on the variables from the revised cardiac risk index, plus age, gender, acute...... by bootstrapping (1000 re-samples) provided c-statistic of 0.79. A more complex risk score based on stepwise logistic regression including 24 variables at P failure, this simple...

  4. Internal Validation of the Sepsis in Obstetrics Score to Identify Risk of Morbidity From Sepsis in Pregnancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albright, Catherine M; Has, Phinnara; Rouse, Dwight J; Hughes, Brenna L

    2017-10-01

    To prospectively validate the Sepsis in Obstetrics Score, a pregnancy-specific sepsis scoring system, to identify risk for intensive care unit (ICU) admission for sepsis in pregnancy. This is a prospective validation study of the Sepsis in Obstetrics Score. The primary outcome was admission to the ICU for sepsis. Secondary outcomes included admission to a telemetry unit and time to administration of antibiotic therapy. We evaluated test characteristics of a predetermined score of 6 or greater. Between March 2012 and May 2015, 1,250 pregnant or postpartum women presented to the emergency department and met systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria. Of those, 425 (34%) had a clinical suspicion or diagnosis of an infection, 14 of whom (3.3%) were admitted to the ICU. The Sepsis in Obstetrics Score had an area under the curve of 0.85 (95% CI 0.76-0.95) for prediction of ICU admission for sepsis. This is within the prespecified 15% margin of the area under the curve of 0.97 found in the derivation cohort. A score of 6 or greater had a sensitivity of 64%, specificity of 88%, positive predictive value of 15%, and negative predictive value of 98.6%. Women with a score 6 or greater were more likely to be admitted to the ICU (15% compared with 1.4%, Pidentify risk of ICU admission for sepsis with the threshold score of 6 having a negative predictive value of 98.6%. Adherence to antibiotic administration guidelines is poor.

  5. Predictive 5-Year Survivorship Model of Cystic Fibrosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liou, Theodore G.; Adler, Frederick R.; FitzSimmons, Stacey C.; Cahill, Barbara C.; Hibbs, Jonathan R.; Marshall, Bruce C.

    2007-01-01

    The objective of this study was to create a 5-year survivorship model to identify key clinical features of cystic fibrosis. Such a model could help researchers and clinicians to evaluate therapies, improve the design of prospective studies, monitor practice patterns, counsel individual patients, and determine the best candidates for lung transplantation. The authors used information from the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry (CFFPR), which has collected longitudinal data on approximately 90% of cystic fibrosis patients diagnosed in the United States since 1986. They developed multivariate logistic regression models by using data on 5,820 patients randomly selected from 11,630 in the CFFPR in 1993. Models were tested for goodness of fit and were validated for the remaining 5,810 patients for 1993. The validated 5-year survivorship model included age, forced expiratory volume in 1 second as a percentage of predicted normal, gender, weight-for-age z score, pancreatic sufficiency, diabetes mellitus, Staphylococcus aureus infection, Burkerholderia cepacia infection, and annual number of acute pulmonary exacerbations. The model provides insights into the complex nature of cystic fibrosis and supplies a rigorous tool for clinical practice and research. PMID:11207152

  6. A quantified risk-scoring system and rating model for postsurgical gastroparesis syndrome in gastric cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xiao-Dong; Mao, Chen-Chen; Zhang, Wei-Teng; Lin, Ji; Wu, Rui-Sen; Zhang, Feng-Min; Sun, Xiang-Wei; Chi, Chu-Huai; Shen, Xian; Wang, Peng-Fei

    2017-09-01

    The study aimed to investigate the relationship between obesity and postsurgical gastroparesis syndrome (PGS), and to construct a scoring system and a risk model to identify patients at high risk. A total of 634 patients were retrospectively analyzed. Clinical characteristics were evaluated via receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Logistic analysis was performed to determine the independent predictive indicators of PGS. A scoring system consisting of these indicators and a risk-rating model were constructed and evaluated via ROC curve analysis. Based on the ROC curves, the visceral fat area (VFA) cutoff value for PGS was 94.00. Logistic analysis showed that visceral obesity (VFA ≥ 94.00 cm(2) ), the reconstruction technique, and tumor size were independent prognostic factors for PGS. The scoring system could predict PGS reliably with a high area under the ROC curve ([AUC] = 0.769). A high-risk rating had a high AUC (AUC I = 0.56, AUC II = 0.65, and AUC III = 0.77), indicating that the risk-rating model could effectively screen patients at high risk of PGS. Visceral obesity defined by VFA effectively predicted PGS. Our scoring system may be a reliable instrument for identifying patients most at risk of PGS. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  7. Developing a novel risk-scoring system for predicting relapse in patients with ulcerative colitis: A prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosseini, Seyed Vahid; Safarpour, Ali Reza; Taghavi, Seyed Alireza

    2015-01-01

    Ulcerative Colitis (UC) follows a natural clinical course of relapses and remissions. The aim of this study was to construct a risk-scoring formula in order to enable predicting relapses in patients with UC. From October 2012 to October 2013, 157 patients from Shiraz, southern Iran who were diagnosed with UC and in remission were enrolled. At 3-month intervals, multiple risk factors of hemoglobin, complete blood counts, serum iron and albumin, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, and faecal calprotectin levels, sex, age, cigarette smoking, positive family history of inflammatory bowel diseases, past history of appendectomy, extra-intestinal accompanying diseases, extent of disease at the beginning of study, number of previous relapses, duration of disease and duration of remission before the study were assessed. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were applied to fit the final model. The new risk-scoring system accuracy was assessed using receiver-operating-characteristics (ROC) curve analysis. Seventy four patients (48.1%) experienced a relapse. Multivariate analysis revealed that relapses could significantly be predicted by the level of fecal calprotectin (OR=8.1), age (OR=9.2), the Seo activity index (OR=52.7), and the number of previous relapses (OR=4.2). The risk scoring formula was developed using the regression coefficient values of the aforementioned variables. Four predictor variables were significant in the final model and were used in our risk-scoring formula. It is recommended that patients who achieve high scores are diligently observed, treated, and followed up.

  8. Additive prognostic value of the SYNTAX score over GRACE, TIMI, ZWOLLE, CADILLAC and PAMI risk scores in patients with acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction treated by primary percutaneous coronary intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brkovic, Voin; Dobric, Milan; Beleslin, Branko; Giga, Vojislav; Vukcevic, Vladan; Stojkovic, Sinisa; Stankovic, Goran; Nedeljkovic, Milan A; Orlic, Dejan; Tomasevic, Miloje; Stepanovic, Jelena; Ostojic, Miodrag

    2013-08-01

    This study evaluated additive prognostic value of the SYNTAX score over GRACE, TIMI, ZWOLLE, CADILLAC and PAMI risk scores in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI). All six scores were calculated in 209 consecutive STEMI patients undergoing pPCI. Primary end-point was the major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE--composite of cardiovascular mortality, non-fatal myocardial infarction and stroke); secondary end point was cardiovascular mortality. Patients were stratified according to the SYNTAX score tertiles (≤12; between 12 and 19.5; >19.5). The median follow-up was 20 months. Rates of MACE and cardiovascular mortality were highest in the upper tertile of the SYNTAX score (p SYNTAX score was independent multivariable predictor of MACE and cardiovascular mortality when added to GRACE, TIMI, ZWOLLE, and PAMI risk scores. However, the SYNTAX score did not improve the Cox regression models of MACE and cardiovascular mortality when added to the CADILLAC score. The SYNTAX score has predictive value for MACE and cardiovascular mortality in patients with STEMI undergoing primary PCI. Furthermore, SYNTAX score improves prognostic performance of well-established GRACE, TIMI, ZWOLLE and PAMI clinical scores, but not the CADILLAC risk score. Therefore, long-term survival in patients after STEMI depends less on detailed angiographical characterization of coronary lesions, but more on clinical characteristics, myocardial function and basic angiographic findings as provided by the CADILLAC score.

  9. Predicting the Risk of Clostridium difficile Infection upon Admission: A Score to Identify Patients for Antimicrobial Stewardship Efforts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuntz, Jennifer L; Smith, David H; Petrik, Amanda F; Yang, Xiuhai; Thorp, Micah L; Barton, Tracy; Barton, Karen; Labreche, Matthew; Spindel, Steven J; Johnson, Eric S

    2016-01-01

    Increasing morbidity and health care costs related to Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) have heightened interest in methods to identify patients who would most benefit from interventions to mitigate the likelihood of CDI. To develop a risk score that can be calculated upon hospital admission and used by antimicrobial stewards, including pharmacists and clinicians, to identify patients at risk for CDI who would benefit from enhanced antibiotic review and patient education. We assembled a cohort of Kaiser Permanente Northwest patients with a hospital admission from July 1, 2005, through December 30, 2012, and identified CDI in the six months following hospital admission. Using Cox regression, we constructed a score to identify patients at high risk for CDI on the basis of preadmission characteristics. We calculated and plotted the observed six-month CDI risk for each decile of predicted risk. We identified 721 CDIs following 54,186 hospital admissions-a 6-month incidence of 13.3 CDIs/1000 patient admissions. Patients with the highest predicted risk of CDI had an observed incidence of 53 CDIs/1000 patient admissions. The score differentiated between patients who do and do not develop CDI, with values for the extended C-statistic of 0.75. Predicted risk for CDI agreed closely with observed risk. Our risk score accurately predicted six-month risk for CDI using preadmission characteristics. Accurate predictions among the highest-risk patient subgroups allow for the identification of patients who could be targeted for and who would likely benefit from review of inpatient antibiotic use or enhanced educational efforts at the time of discharge planning.

  10. Use of a risk scoring tool to identify higher-risk HIV-1 serodiscordant couples for an antiretroviral-based HIV-1 prevention intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irungu, Elizabeth M; Heffron, Renee; Mugo, Nelly; Ngure, Kenneth; Katabira, Elly; Bulya, Nulu; Bukusi, Elizabeth; Odoyo, Josephine; Asiimwe, Stephen; Tindimwebwa, Edna; Celum, Connie; Baeten, Jared M

    2016-10-17

    Antiretroviral therapy (ART) and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) reduce HIV-1 transmission within heterosexual HIV-1 serodiscordant couples. Prioritizing couples at highest HIV-1 transmission risk for ART and PrEP would maximize impact and minimize costs. The Partners Demonstration Project is an open-label, delivery study of integrated PrEP and ART for HIV-1 prevention among high risk HIV-1 serodiscordant couples in Kenya and Uganda. We evaluated the feasibility of using a validated risk score that weighs a combination of easily measurable factors (age, children, marital status, male circumcision status, condom use, plasma HIV-1 levels) to identify couples at highest risk for HIV-1 transmission for enrollment. Couples scoring ≥5 met the risk score eligibility criteria. We screened 1694 HIV-1 serodiscordant couples and enrolled 1013. Of the screened couples, 1331 (78.6 %) scored ≥5 (with an expected incidence >3 % per year) and 76 % of these entered the study. The median age of the HIV-1 uninfected partner was 29 years [IQR 26, 36] and 20 % were 50,000 copies/ml. A risk scoring tool identified HIV-1 serodiscordant couples for a demonstration project of PrEP and ART with high HIV-1 risk. The tool may be feasible for research and public health settings to maximize efficiency and minimize HIV-1 prevention costs.

  11. Comparative Evaluation of Four Risk Scores for Predicting Mortality in Patients With Implantable Cardioverter-defibrillator for Primary Prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Mañero, Moisés; Abu Assi, Emad; Sánchez-Gómez, Juan Miguel; Fernández-Armenta, Juan; Díaz-Infante, Ernesto; García-Bolao, Ignacio; Benezet-Mazuecos, Juan; Andrés Lahuerta, Ana; Expósito-García, Víctor; Bertomeu-González, Vicente; Arce-León, Álvaro; Barrio-López, María Teresa; Peinado, Rafael; Martínez-Sande, Luis; Arias, Miguel A

    2016-11-01

    Several clinical risk scores have been developed to identify patients at high risk of all-cause mortality despite implantation of an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator. We aimed to examine and compare the predictive capacity of 4 simple scoring systems (MADIT-II, FADES, PACE and SHOCKED) for predicting mortality after defibrillator implantation for primary prevention of sudden cardiac death in a Mediterranean country. A multicenter retrospective study was performed in 15 Spanish hospitals. Consecutive patients referred for defibrillator implantation between January 2010 and December 2011 were included. A total of 916 patients with ischemic and nonischemic heart disease were included (mean age, 62 ± 11 years, 81.4% male). Over 33.4 ± 12.9 months, 113 (12.3%) patients died (cardiovascular origin in 86 [9.4%] patients). At 12, 24, 36, and 48 months, mortality rates were 4.5%, 7.6%, 10.8%, and 12.3% respectively. All the risk scores showed a stepwise increase in the risk of death throughout the scoring system of each of the scores and all 4 scores identified patients at greater risk of mortality. The scores were significantly associated with all-cause mortality throughout the follow-up period. PACE displayed the lowest c-index value regardless of whether the population had heart disease of ischemic (c-statistic = 0.61) or nonischemic origin (c-statistic = 0.61), whereas MADIT-II (c-statistic = 0.67 and 0.65 in ischemic and nonischemic cardiomyopathy, respectively), SHOCKED (c-statistic = 0.68 and 0.66, respectively), and FADES (c-statistic = 0.66 and 0.60) provided similar c-statistic values (P ≥ .09). In this nontrial-based cohort of Mediterranean patients, the 4 evaluated risk scores showed a significant stepwise increase in the risk of death. Among the currently available risk scores, MADIT-II, FADES, and SHOCKED provide slightly better performance than PACE. Copyright © 2016 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All

  12. Specific scoring systems to predict survival of patients with high-risk myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) and de novo acute myeloid leukemia (AML) after intensive antileukemic treatment based on results of the EORTC-GIMEMA AML-10 and intergroup CRIANT studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oosterveld, Margriet; Suciu, Stefan; Muus, Petra; Germing, Ulrich; Delforge, Michel; Belhabri, Amin; Aul, Carlo; Selleslag, Dominik; Ferrant, Augustin; Marie, Jean-Pierre; Amadori, Sergio; Jehn, Ulrich; Mandelli, Franco; Hess, Uwe; Hellström-Lindberg, Eva; Cakmak-Wollgast, Songuel; Vignetti, Marco; Labar, Boris; Willemze, Roel; de Witte, Theo

    2015-01-01

    High-risk myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) patients have usually a less favorable outcome after intensive treatment compared with de novo acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients. This may reflect different disease-related and patient-related factors. The purpose of this analysis is to identify disease-specific prognostic factors and to develop prognostic scores for both patient groups. A total of 692 patients in the EORTC/GIMEMA AML-10 study and 289 patients in the CRIANT study received identical remission-induction and consolidation treatment. Estimated 5-year survival rate was 34 % in the AML-10 versus 27 % in the CRIANT study, and estimated disease-free survival was 40 % versus 28 %, respectively. In multivariate analysis, cytogenetic characteristics, white blood count, and age appeared prognostic for survival in both studies. French-American-British (FAB) subtype and performance status were prognostic in the AML-10 study only, whereas number of cytopenias and duration of antecedent hematologic disorder >6 months were prognostic in the CRIANT study only. The prognostic scores distinguish three groups with a 5-year survival rate of 54, 38, and 19 % in the AML-10 study versus 69, 37, and 5 % in the CRIANT study. The prognostic value of these scores has been validated on two external series. The new scoring systems form a practical tool to predict the outcome of individual MDS and AML patients treated with intensive antileukemic therapy.

  13. A genetic risk score of 45 coronary artery disease risk variants associates with increased risk of myocardial infarction in 6041 Danish individuals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krarup, N T; Borglykke, A; Allin, K H;

    2015-01-01

    discrimination improvement (IDI) added to the European SCORE for 10-year MI risk prediction. RESULTS: The GRS associated significantly with risk of incident MI (allele-dependent hazard ratio (95%CI): 1.06 (1.02-1.11), p = 0.01) but not with CAD (p = 0.39). Stratification revealed association of GRS with MI...... in men (1.06 (1.01-1.12), p = 0.02) and in individuals above the median of 45.11 years of age (1.06 (1.00-1.12), p = 0.03). There was no interaction between GRS and gender (p = 0.90) or age (p = 0.83). The GRS improved neither NRI nor IDI. CONCLUSION: The GRS of 45 GWAS identified risk variants increase...

  14. Dietary Calcium and Framingham Risk Score in Vitamin D Deficient Male (KNHANES 2009-2011)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Sung-Jin; Yeum, Kyung-Jin; Park, Soo-Jung; Choi, Beomhee

    2015-01-01

    Purpose The association between excess calcium intake and cardiovascular mortality has already been reported. In the present study, we investigated the relation between dietary calcium intake and Framingham Risk Score (FRS) according to serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] status. Materials and Methods A total of 7809 subjects (3452 males and 4357 female) aged over 40 years were selected for this cross-sectional study from data obtained from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2008-2011). Daily dietary calcium intake was categorized into 1200 mg/day and serum 25(OH)D concentration classified into 75 mmol/L. The FRS was compared by the daily dietary calcium intake categories according to 25(OH)D concentration after adjustment with relevant variables in both genders. Results Higher FRS was observed in males with both 1200 mg of dietary calcium intake and females with 1200 mg of dietary calcium intake groups in both genders after adjustments for relevant variables. FRS was significantly higher in the group with >1200 mg of dietary calcium intake and serum 25(OH)D 1200 mg/day) dietary calcium intake were related with higher FRS in both genders. In particular, higher FRS was observed in the excess (>1200 mg/day) dietary calcium intake male group under vitamin D deficiency (<50 nmol/L). PMID:25837195

  15. [The application of genetic risk score in genetic studies of complex human diseases].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dayan, Niu; Weili, Yan

    2015-12-01

    Complex diseases such as cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, essential hypertension, asthma, obesity and cancer have spread across the globe and become the predominant cause of death. There are growing concerns over the role of genetic susceptibility in pathogenesis of complex diseases. However, the related susceptibility genes and sequence variations are still unknown. To elucidate the genetic basis of complex diseases, researchers have identified a large number of genetic variants associated with complex diseases through genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and candidate gene studies recently. The identification of these causal and/or associated variants promotes the development of approaches for complex diseases prediction and prevention. Genetic risk score (GRS), an emerging method for exploring correlation between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and clinical phenotypes of complex diseases, integrates weak effects of multiple SNPs and dramatically enhances predictability of complex diseases by gene polymorphisms. This method has been applied successfully in genetic studies of many complex diseases. Here we focus on the introduction of the computational methods and evaluation criteria of GRS, enumerate a series of achievements through GRS application, discuss some limitations during application, and finally prospect the future of GRS.

  16. Polygenic Risk Score, Parental Socioeconomic Status, Family History of Psychiatric Disorders, and the Risk for Schizophrenia: A Danish Population-Based Study and Meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agerbo, Esben; Sullivan, Patrick F; Vilhjálmsson, Bjarni J; Pedersen, Carsten B; Mors, Ole; Børglum, Anders D; Hougaard, David M; Hollegaard, Mads V; Meier, Sandra; Mattheisen, Manuel; Ripke, Stephan; Wray, Naomi R; Mortensen, Preben B

    2015-07-01

    Schizophrenia has a complex etiology influenced both by genetic and nongenetic factors but disentangling these factors is difficult. To estimate (1) how strongly the risk for schizophrenia relates to the mutual effect of the polygenic risk score, parental socioeconomic status, and family history of psychiatric disorders; (2) the fraction of cases that could be prevented if no one was exposed to these factors; (3) whether family background interacts with an individual's genetic liability so that specific subgroups are particularly risk prone; and (4) to what extent a proband's genetic makeup mediates the risk associated with familial background. We conducted a nested case-control study based on Danish population-based registers. The study consisted of 866 patients diagnosed as having schizophrenia between January 1, 1994, and December 31, 2006, and 871 matched control individuals. Genome-wide data and family psychiatric and socioeconomic background information were obtained from neonatal biobanks and national registers. Results from a separate meta-analysis (34,600 cases and 45,968 control individuals) were applied to calculate polygenic risk scores. Polygenic risk scores, parental socioeconomic status, and family psychiatric history. Odds ratios (ORs), attributable risks, liability R2 values, and proportions mediated. Schizophrenia was associated with the polygenic risk score (OR, 8.01; 95% CI, 4.53-14.16 for highest vs lowest decile), socioeconomic status (OR, 8.10; 95% CI, 3.24-20.3 for 6 vs no exposures), and a history of schizophrenia/psychoses (OR, 4.18; 95% CI, 2.57-6.79). The R2 values were 3.4% (95% CI, 2.1-4.6) for the polygenic risk score, 3.1% (95% CI, 1.9-4.3) for parental socioeconomic status, and 3.4% (95% CI, 2.1-4.6) for family history. Socioeconomic status and psychiatric history accounted for 45.8% (95% CI, 36.1-55.5) and 25.8% (95% CI, 21.2-30.5) of cases, respectively. There was an interaction between the polygenic risk score and family history

  17. Predicting treatment failure, death and drug resistance using a computed risk score among newly diagnosed TB patients in Tamaulipas, Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdelbary, B E; Garcia-Viveros, M; Ramirez-Oropesa, H; Rahbar, M H; Restrepo, B I

    2017-09-14

    The purpose of this study was to develop a method for identifying newly diagnosed tuberculosis (TB) patients at risk for TB adverse events in Tamaulipas, Mexico. Surveillance data between 2006 and 2013 (8431 subjects) was used to develop risk scores based on predictive modelling. The final models revealed that TB patients failing their treatment regimen were more likely to have at most a primary school education, multi-drug resistance (MDR)-TB, and few to moderate bacilli on acid-fast bacilli smear. TB patients who died were more likely to be older males with MDR-TB, HIV, malnutrition, and reporting excessive alcohol use. Modified risk scores were developed with strong predictability for treatment failure and death (c-statistic 0·65 and 0·70, respectively), and moderate predictability for drug resistance (c-statistic 0·57). Among TB patients with diabetes, risk scores showed moderate predictability for death (c-statistic 0·68). Our findings suggest that in the clinical setting, the use of our risk scores for TB treatment failure or death will help identify these individuals for tailored management to prevent these adverse events. In contrast, the available variables in the TB surveillance dataset are not robust predictors of drug resistance, indicating the need for prompt testing at time of diagnosis.

  18. Combining the ASA Physical Classification System and Continuous Intraoperative Surgical Apgar Score Measurement in Predicting Postoperative Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jering, Monika Zdenka; Marolen, Khensani N; Shotwell, Matthew S; Denton, Jason N; Sandberg, Warren S; Ehrenfeld, Jesse Menachem

    2015-11-01

    The surgical Apgar score predicts major 30-day postoperative complications using data assessed at the end of surgery. We hypothesized that evaluating the surgical Apgar score continuously during surgery may identify patients at high risk for postoperative complications. We retrospectively identified general, vascular, and general oncology patients at Vanderbilt University Medical Center. Logistic regression methods were used to construct a series of predictive models in order to continuously estimate the risk of major postoperative complications, and to alert care providers during surgery should the risk exceed a given threshold. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was used to evaluate the discriminative ability of a model utilizing a continuously measured surgical Apgar score relative to models that use only preoperative clinical factors or continuously monitored individual constituents of the surgical Apgar score (i.e. heart rate, blood pressure, and blood loss). AUROC estimates were validated internally using a bootstrap method. 4,728 patients were included. Combining the ASA PS classification with continuously measured surgical Apgar score demonstrated improved discriminative ability (AUROC 0.80) in the pooled cohort compared to ASA (0.73) and the surgical Apgar score alone (0.74). To optimize the tradeoff between inadequate and excessive alerting with future real-time notifications, we recommend a threshold probability of 0.24. Continuous assessment of the surgical Apgar score is predictive for major postoperative complications. In the future, real-time notifications might allow for detection and mitigation of changes in a patient's accumulating risk of complications during a surgical procedure.

  19. Analysis of risk factors for children 5 years and younger which bronchial asthma is occurrence and development%5岁以下儿童支气管哮喘发生及持续发展的危险因素分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    程远; 陈德晖

    2014-01-01

    我国调查显示约有90.33%支气管哮喘(简称哮喘)儿童首次喘息发生在5岁及以前,虽然临床上有如此高的患病率,但5岁以下反复喘息儿童因难以获得肺通气功能等客观的哮喘评估指标,临床诊断需基于患儿的病史、临床表现及其对平喘药物的治疗反应来确定。故目前有关5岁及以下年幼儿哮喘的诊断手段十分有限。本文通过对患儿的出生史、喂养营养史、家居环境因素、遗传因素、过敏原及病原微生物分析,了解5岁及以下哮喘患儿的既往危险因素及导致其持续发展的危险因素,对5岁及以下儿童哮喘的早期识别诊断、早期治疗提供理论依据。%Survey shows that about 90.33% of children with wheezing occurred in the first 5 years,although such a high prevalence,but recurrent wheezing children under 5 years old is difficult to obtain the data with pulmonary function and other objective asthma evaluation index,the clinical diagnosis is based on history,clinical manifestations and drug reactions.So currently about the diagnosis of asthma in 5 years old is very limited.Through the history of children′s birth,feeding and nutritional history, environmental factors,genetic factors,allergens and pathogens factors to understand the risk factors of past and developing with asthma in the first 5 years,it can provide the theoretical basis of early diagnosis and early treatment with asthma in the first 5 years.

  20. A 5 year prospective study of patient-relevant outcomes after total knee replacement

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nilsdotter, A-K; Toksvig-Larsen, S; Roos, E M

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To prospectively describe self-reported outcomes up to 5 years after total knee replacement (TKR) in Osteoarthritis (OA) and to study which patient-relevant factors may predict outcomes for pain and physical function (PF). METHODS: 102 consecutive patients with knee OA, 63 women and 39...... postoperatively. RESULTS: Response rate at 5 years was 86%. At 6 months significant improvement was seen in all KOOS and SF-36 scores (P

  1. Clinical risk scoring system for predicting extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli infection in hospitalized patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kengkla, K; Charoensuk, N; Chaichana, M; Puangjan, S; Rattanapornsompong, T; Choorassamee, J; Wilairat, P; Saokaew, S

    2016-05-01

    Extended spectrum β-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli (ESBL-EC) has important implications for infection control and empiric antibiotic prescribing. This study aims to develop a risk scoring system for predicting ESBL-EC infection based on local epidemiology. The study retrospectively collected eligible patients with a positive culture for E. coli during 2011 to 2014. The risk scoring system was developed using variables independently associated with ESBL-EC infection through logistic regression-based prediction. Area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve (AuROC) was determined to confirm the prediction power of the model. Predictors for ESBL-EC infection were male gender [odds ratio (OR): 1.53], age ≥55 years (OR: 1.50), healthcare-associated infection (OR: 3.21), hospital-acquired infection (OR: 2.28), sepsis (OR: 1.79), prolonged hospitalization (OR: 1.88), history of ESBL infection within one year (OR: 7.88), prior use of broad-spectrum cephalosporins within three months (OR: 12.92), and prior use of other antibiotics within three months (OR: 2.14). Points scored ranged from 0 to 47, and were divided into three groups based on diagnostic performance parameters: low risk (score: 0-8; 44.57%), moderate risk (score: 9-11; 21.85%) and high risk (score: ≥12; 33.58%). The model displayed moderate power of prediction (AuROC: 0.773; 95% confidence interval: 0.742-0.805) and good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ(2) = 13.29; P = 0.065). This tool may optimize the prescribing of empirical antibiotic therapy, minimize time to identify patients, and prevent spreading of ESBL-EC. Prior to adoption into routine clinical practice, further validation study of the tool is needed. Copyright © 2016 The Healthcare Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Metastatic Tissue Proteomic Profiling Predicts 5-Year Outcomes in Patients with Colorectal Liver Metastases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santiago Marfà

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Colorectal cancer (CRC is one of the most common cancers in the developed countries, and nearly 70% of patients with CRC develop colorectal liver metastases (CRLMs. During the last decades, several scores have been proposed to predict recurrence after CRLM resection. However, these risk scoring systems do not accurately reflect the prognosis of these patients. Therefore, this investigation was designed to identify a proteomic profile in human hepatic tumor samples to classify patients with CRLM as “mild” or “severe” based on the 5-year survival. The study was performed on 85 CRLM tumor samples. Firstly, to evaluate any distinct tumor proteomic signatures between mild and severe CRLM patients, a training group of 57 CRLM tumor samples was characterized by surface-enhanced laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry, and a classification and regression tree (CART analysis was subsequently performed. Finally, 28 CRLM tumor samples were used to confirm and validate the results obtained. Based on all the protein peaks detected in the training group, the CART analysis was generated, and four peaks were considered to be the most relevant to construct a diagnostic algorithm. Indeed, the multivariate model yielded a sensitivity of 85.7% and a specificity of 86.1%, respectively. In addition, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve showed an excellent diagnostic accuracy to discriminate mild from severe CRLM patients (area under the ROC: 0.903. Finally, the validation process yielded a sensitivity and specificity of 68.8% and 83.3%, respectively. We identified a proteomic profile potentially useful to determine the prognosis of CRLM patients based on the 5-year survival.

  3. Additive composite ABCG2, SLC2A9 and SLC22A12 scores of high-risk alleles with alcohol use modulate gout risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tu, Hung-Pin; Chung, Chia-Min; Min-Shan Ko, Albert; Lee, Su-Shin; Lai, Han-Ming; Lee, Chien-Hung; Huang, Chung-Ming; Liu, Chiu-Shong; Ko, Ying-Chin

    2016-09-01

    The aim of the present study was to evaluate the contribution of urate transporter genes and alcohol use to the risk of gout/tophi. Eight variants of ABCG2, SLC2A9, SLC22A12, SLC22A11 and SLC17A3 were genotyped in male individuals in a case-control study with 157 gout (33% tophi), 106 asymptomatic hyperuricaemia and 295 control subjects from Taiwan. The multilocus profiles of the genetic risk scores for urate gene variants were used to evaluate the risk of asymptomatic hyperuricaemia, gout and tophi. ABCG2 Q141K (T), SLC2A9 rs1014290 (A) and SLC22A12 rs475688 (C) under an additive model and alcohol use independently predicted the risk of gout (respective odds ratio for each factor=2.48, 2.03, 1.95 and 2.48). The additive composite Q141K, rs1014290 and rs475688 scores of high-risk alleles were associated with gout risk (P<0.0001). We observed the supramultiplicative interaction effect of genetic urate scores and alcohol use on gout and tophi risk (P for interaction=0.0452, 0.0033). The synergistic effect of genetic urate score 5-6 and alcohol use indicates that these combined factors correlate with gout and tophi occurrence.

  4. Prediction of Outcome After Emergency High-Risk Intra-abdominal Surgery Using the Surgical Apgar Score

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cihoric, Mirjana; Toft Tengberg, Line; Bay-Nielsen, Morten

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: With current literature quoting mortality rates up to 45%, emergency high-risk abdominal surgery has, compared with elective surgery, a significantly greater risk of death and major complications. The Surgical Apgar Score (SAS) is predictive of outcome in elective surgery, but has never...... been validated exclusively in an emergency setting. METHODS: A consecutive prospective single-center cohort study of 355 adults undergoing emergency high-risk abdominal surgery between June 2013 and May 2014 is presented. The primary outcome measure was 30-day mortality. Secondary outcome measures were...... the incidence of both outcomes. Area under the curve was used to demonstrate the scores' discriminatory power. RESULTS: One hundred eighty-one (51.0%) patients developed minor or no complications. The overall incidence of major complications was 32.7% and the overall death rate was 16.3%. Risk of major...

  5. Almanac 2012: Cardiovascular risk scores. The national society journals present selected research that has driven recent advances in clinical cardiology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jill P. Pell

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Global risk scores use individual level information on non-modifiable risk factors (such as age, sex, ethnicity and family history and modifiable risk factors (such as smoking status and blood pressure to predict an individual’s absolute risk of an adverse event over a specified period of time in the future. Cardiovascular risk scores have two major uses in practice. First, they can be used to dichotomise people into a group whose baseline risk, and therefore potential absolute benefit, is sufficiently high to justify the costs and risks associated with an intervention (whether treatment or prevention and a group with a lower absolute risk to whom the intervention is usually denied. Second, they can be used to assess the effectiveness of an intervention (such as smoking cessation or antihypertensive treatment at reducing an individual’s risk of future adverse events. In this context, they can be helpful in informing patients, motivating them to change their lifestyle, and reinforcing the importance of continued compliance.

  6. Saturated Fat Intake Modulates the Association between an Obesity Genetic Risk Score and Body Mass Index in Two US Populations

    OpenAIRE

    P. Casas-Agustench; Arnett, DK; Smith, CE; Lai, CQ; Parnell, LD; Borecki, IB; Frazier-Wood, AC; Allison, M.; Chen, YDI; Taylor, KD; Rich, SS; Rotter, JI; Lee, Yc; Ordovás, JM

    2014-01-01

    © 2014 Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Combining multiple genetic variants related to obesity into a genetic risk score (GRS) might improve identification of individuals at risk of developing obesity. Moreover, characterizing gene-diet interactions is a research challenge to establish dietary recommendations to individuals with higher predisposition to obesity. Our objective was to analyze the association between an obesity GRS and body mass index (BMI) in the Genetics of Lipid Lowering D...

  7. Genetic Association and Risk Scores in a Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Meta-analysis of 16,707 Subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busch, Robert; Hobbs, Brian D; Zhou, Jin; Castaldi, Peter J; McGeachie, Michael J; Hardin, Megan E; Hawrylkiewicz, Iwona; Sliwinski, Pawel; Yim, Jae-Joon; Kim, Woo Jin; Kim, Deog K; Agusti, Alvar; Make, Barry J; Crapo, James D; Calverley, Peter M; Donner, Claudio F; Lomas, David A; Wouters, Emiel F; Vestbo, Jørgen; Tal-Singer, Ruth; Bakke, Per; Gulsvik, Amund; Litonjua, Augusto A; Sparrow, David; Paré, Peter D; Levy, Robert D; Rennard, Stephen I; Beaty, Terri H; Hokanson, John; Silverman, Edwin K; Cho, Michael H

    2017-07-01

    The heritability of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) cannot be fully explained by recognized genetic risk factors identified as achieving genome-wide significance. In addition, the combined contribution of genetic variation to COPD risk has not been fully explored. We sought to determine: (1) whether studies of variants from previous studies of COPD or lung function in a larger sample could identify additional associated variants, particularly for severe COPD; and (2) the impact of genetic risk scores on COPD. We genotyped 3,346 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 2,588 cases (1,803 severe COPD) and 1,782 control subjects from four cohorts, and performed association testing with COPD, combining these results with existing genotyping data from 6,633 cases (3,497 severe COPD) and 5,704 control subjects. In addition, we developed genetic risk scores from SNPs associated with lung function and COPD and tested their discriminatory power for COPD-related measures. We identified significant associations between SNPs near PPIC (P = 1.28 × 10(-8)) and PPP4R4/SERPINA1 (P = 1.01 × 10(-8)) and severe COPD; the latter association may be driven by recognized variants in SERPINA1. Genetic risk scores based on SNPs previously associated with COPD and lung function had a modest ability to discriminate COPD (area under the curve, ∼0.6), and accounted for a mean 0.9-1.9% lower forced expiratory volume in 1 second percent predicted for each additional risk allele. In a large genetic association analysis, we identified associations with severe COPD near PPIC and SERPINA1. A risk score based on combining genetic variants had modest, but significant, effects on risk of COPD and lung function.

  8. A competing-risk-based score for predicting twenty-year risk of incident diabetes: the Beijing Longitudinal Study of Ageing study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiangtong; Chen, Zhenghong; Fine, Jason Peter; Liu, Long; Wang, Anxin; Guo, Jin; Tao, Lixin; Mahara, Gehendra; Yang, Kun; Zhang, Jie; Tian, Sijia; Li, Haibin; Liu, Kuo; Luo, Yanxia; Zhang, Feng; Tang, Zhe; Guo, Xiuhua

    2016-01-01

    Few risk tools have been proposed to quantify the long-term risk of diabetes among middle-aged and elderly individuals in China. The present study aimed to develop a risk tool to estimate the 20-year risk of developing diabetes while incorporating competing risks. A three-stage stratification random-clustering sampling procedure was conducted to ensure the representativeness of the Beijing elderly. We prospectively followed 1857 community residents aged 55 years and above who were free of diabetes at baseline examination. Sub-distribution hazards models were used to adjust for the competing risks of non-diabetes death. The cumulative incidence function of twenty-year diabetes event rates was 11.60% after adjusting for the competing risks of non-diabetes death. Age, body mass index, fasting plasma glucose, health status, and physical activity were selected to form the score. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.76 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.72–0.80), and the optimism-corrected AUC was 0.78 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.69–0.87) after internal validation by bootstrapping. The calibration plot showed that the actual diabetes risk was similar to the predicted risk. The cut-off value of the risk score was 19 points, marking mark the difference between low-risk and high-risk patients, which exhibited a sensitivity of 0.74 and specificity of 0.65. PMID:27849048

  9. Thromboembolism and bleeding risk scores and predictors of cardiac death in a population with atrial fibrillation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Rose Mary Ferreira Lisboa da; Silva, Pollyana Ardavicius E; Lima, Marcos Correia; Sant'Anna, Lívia Tanure; Silva, Túlio Corrêa; Moreira, Pedro Henrique Vilela; Gandra, Robert Moreira; Cavalcanti, Túlio Ramos; Mourão, Plínio Henrique Vaz

    2017-07-01

    Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common arrhythmia, with risk of systemic embolism and death. It presents rheumatic etiology in up to 32% of developing countries, whose anticoagulation and evolution data are scarce. to determine the predictors of cardiac death considering the clinical profile, thromboembolism and bleeding scores of patients with AF of a single center, with high prevalence of rheumatic heart disease. 302 patients with AF were studied, mean age 58.1 years; 161 women; 96 pts with rheumatic etiology. Patients underwent clinical and laboratory evaluation, measurement of risk scores and the mean follow-up of 12.8 months. 174 were using warfarin. The averages of the HAS-BLED and ATRIA scores were 1.4 and 1.2, respectively. Percent time in therapeutic range of international normalized ratio was 45.8%. Thirty patients (9.9%) had cardiac death and 41 had some type of bleeding due to warfarin. By univariate analysis, there was statistical significance between cardiac death and permanent AF, blood pressure, systolic dysfunction, R2CHADS2, CCS, EHRA and HAS-BLED. There was no association with valvular AF. By multivariate analysis, systemic arterial and pulmonary artery pressures, classification CCS and systolic dysfunction showed statistical significance. There was no association between cardiac death and valvular AF. Independent predictors of cardiac death were low measures of blood pressure, higher score CCS classification and the presence of systolic ventricular dysfunction. A fibrilação atrial (FA) é uma arritmia comum, com risco de embolia sistêmica e morte. Apresenta etiologia reumática em até 32% dos países em desenvolvimento, cujos dados de anticoagulação e evolução são escassos. Verificar as variáveis preditoras de morte cardíaca (MC) conforme o perfil clínico, os escores de tromboembolismo e de sangramento dos pacientes com FA de uma única instituição universitária, com alta prevalência de cardiopatia reumática. Foram estudados 302

  10. Effect of serum lipid level change on 10-year coronary heart risk distribution estimated by means of seven different coronary risk scores during one-year treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kojić, Nevena Eremić; Derić, Mirjana; Dejanović, Jadranka

    2014-01-01

    This study was done in order to evaluate the effect of serum levels of total cholesterol, triglycerides, low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol on 10-year coronary heart disease risk distribution change. This study included 110 subjects of both genders (71 female and 39 male), aged 29 to 73, treated at the Outpatient Department of Atherosclerosis Prevention, Centre for Laboratory Medicine, Clinical Centre Vojvodina. The 10-year coronary heart disease risk was estimated on first examination and after one-year treatment by means of Framingham, PROCAM and SCORE coronary risk scores and their modifications (Framingham Adult Treatment Panel III, Framingham Weibul, PROCAM NS and PROCAM Cox Hazards). Age, gender, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, smoking, positive family history and left ventricular hypertrophy are risk factors involved in the estimation of coronary heart disease besides lipid parameters. There were no significant differences in nutritional status, smoking habits, systolic and diastolic pressure, and no development of diabetes mellitus or cardiovascular incidents during one-year follow. However, a significant reduction in cholesterol level (p risk (Framingham- p Framingham ATP III- p Framingham Weibul- p SCORE- p risk category (Framingham- p Framingham ATP III- p Framingham Weibul- p SCORE- p risk at the beginning of the study. Our results show that the correction of lipid level after one-year treatment leads to a significant redistribution of 10-year coronary heart disease risk estimated by means of seven different coronary risk scores. This should stimulate patients and doctors to persist in prevention measures.

  11. Dental erosion among South Brazilian adolescents: A 2.5-year longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brusius, C D; Alves, L S; Susin, C; Maltz, M

    2017-07-20

    This population-based longitudinal study investigated the incidence, progression and risk factors for dental erosion among South Brazilian adolescents. Eight hundred and one schoolchildren attending 42 public and private schools were clinically examined at 12 years of age; clinical examinations were repeated after 2.5 years (SD=0.3). After tooth cleaning and drying, permanent incisors and first molars were classified using the Basic Erosive Wear Examination (BEWE) scoring criteria. Questionnaires were used to collect data on socio-demographic characteristics, dietary habits, toothbrushing frequency and general health. Poisson regression analysis was used to assess the association between dental erosion incidence and explanatory variables, with adjusted incidence risk ratios (IRR) and 95% CI estimated. Among those who did not have dental erosion at baseline, 49 of 680 schoolchildren (7.1%; 95% CI=5.2-9.1) developed erosive lesions over the follow-up period. Among schoolchildren who had dental erosion at baseline, 31 of 121 (25.4%; 95% CI=17.6-33.3) had new or more severe lesions. Boys were more likely to develop dental erosion than girls (IRR=1.88; 95% CI=1.06-3.32). A moderate incidence of dental erosion was observed among South Brazilian adolescents, with boys being at higher risk. The high progression rate of 25% observed here is very concerning, and it should be taken in consideration when designing preventive strategies for dental erosion. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Does Preendoscopy Rockall Score Safely Identify Low Risk Patients following Upper Gastrointestinal Haemorrhage?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew R. Johnston

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To determine if preendoscopy Rockall score (PERS enables safe outpatient management of New Zealanders with upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage (UGIH. Methods. Retrospective analysis of adults with UGIH over 59 consecutive months. PERS, diagnosis, demographics, need for endoscopic therapy, transfusion or surgery and 30-day mortality and 14-day rebleeding rate, and sensitivity and specificity of PERS for enabling safe discharge preendoscopy were calculated. Results. 424 admissions with UGIH. Median age was 74.3 years (range 19–93 years, with 55.1% being males. 30-day mortality was 4.6% and 14-day rebleeding rate was 6.0%. Intervention was required in 181 (46.6%: blood transfusion (147 : 37.9%, endoscopic intervention (75 : 19.3%, and surgery (8 : 2.1%. 42 (10.8% had PERS = 0 with intervention required in 15 (35.7%. Females more frequently required intervention, OR 1.73 (CI: 1.12–2.69. PERS did not predict intervention but did predict 30-day mortality: each point increase equated to an increase in mortality of OR 1.46 (CI: 1.11–1.92. Taking NSAIDs/aspirin reduced 30-day mortality, OR 0.22 (CI: 0.08–0.60. Conclusion. PERS identifies 10.8% of those with UGIH as low risk but 35.7% required intervention or died. It has a limited role in assessing these patients and should not be used to identify those suitable for outpatient endoscopy.

  13. Rapid Early Growth May Modulate the Association Between Birth Weight and Blood Pressure at 5 Years in the EDEN Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taine, Marion; Stengel, Bénédicte; Forhan, Anne; Carles, Sophie; Botton, Jérémie; Charles, Marie-Aline; Heude, Barbara

    2016-10-01

    Physiological evidence suggests that birth weight (BW) and postnatal growth affect blood pressure (BP) level, independently or in interaction. Their respective roles are difficult to disentangle in epidemiological studies, however, especially when adjusting for final weight. We assessed the portion of the effect of BW on BP at 5 years that was not attributable to postnatal growth and investigated potential interactions between BW and postnatal growth velocity at different time points in the EDEN mother-child study. Collecting a median of 19 weight measurements for each of the 1119 children who completed follow-up enabled us to model instantaneous growth velocity at any age. After computing a BP SD-score at 5 years, adjusted for age, sex, current body mass index, and height, we used multiple linear regression to study its association with age- and sex-specific BW z score, adjusting for several maternal and pregnancy risk factors. We tested interactions between BW categories (small-, appropriate-, and large-for-gestational-age) and weight growth velocities at different ages. The BW z score was negatively and significantly correlated with the systolic BP SD-score at the age of 5 years (r=-0.07, P=0.02). Interactions were found between BW categories and weight growth velocities from 1 to 4 months (P from 0.002 to 0.08) but not at older ages; specifically, children born small for gestational age with a fast weight growth velocity in their first few months of life had the highest absolute systolic BP and SD score values at 5 years. They may need monitoring for cardiovascular risks. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

  14. Risk score for predicting adolescent mental health problems among children using parental report only : the TRAILS study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Burger, Huibert; Boks, Marco P.; Hartman, Catharina A.; Aukes, Maartje F.; Verhulst, Frank C.; Ormel, Johan; Reijneveld, Sijmen A.

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To construct a risk score for adolescent mental health problems among children, using parental data only and without potentially stigmatizing mental health items. METHODS: We prospectively derived a prediction model for mental health problems at age 16 using data from parent report on 167

  15. Do the malnutrition universal screening tool (MUST and Birmingham nutrition risk (BNR score predict mortality in older hospitalised patients?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee Emma

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Undernutrition is common in older hospitalised patients, and routine screening is advocated. It is unclear whether screening tools such as the Birmingham Nutrition Risk (BNR score and the Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool (MUST can successfully predict outcome in this patient group. Methods Consecutive admissions to Medicine for the Elderly assessment wards in Dundee were assessed between mid-October 2003 and mid-January 2004. Body Mass Index (BMI, MUST and BNR scores were prospectively collected. Time to death was obtained from the Scottish Death Register and compared across strata of risk. Results 115 patients were analysed, mean age 82.1 years. 39/115 (34% were male. 20 patients were identified as high risk by both methods of screening. A further 10 were categorised high risk only with the Birmingham classification and 12 only with MUST. 80/115 (67% patients had died at the time of accessing death records. MUST category significantly predicted death (log rank test, p = 0.022. Neither BMI (log rank p = 0.37 or Birmingham nutrition score (log rank p = 0.35 predicted death. Conclusion The MUST score, but not the BNR, is able to predict increased mortality in older hospitalised patients.

  16. Risk score for predicting adolescent mental health problems among children using parental report only : the TRAILS study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Burger, Huibert; Boks, Marco P.; Hartman, Catharina A.; Aukes, Maartje F.; Verhulst, Frank C.; Ormel, Johan; Reijneveld, Sijmen A.

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To construct a risk score for adolescent mental health problems among children, using parental data only and without potentially stigmatizing mental health items. METHODS: We prospectively derived a prediction model for mental health problems at age 16 using data from parent report on

  17. Using "big data" to capture overall health status: properties and predictive value of a claims-based health risk score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamad, Rita; Modrek, Sepideh; Kubo, Jessica; Goldstein, Benjamin A; Cullen, Mark R

    2015-01-01

    Investigators across many fields often struggle with how best to capture an individual's overall health status, with options including both subjective and objective measures. With the increasing availability of "big data," researchers can now take advantage of novel metrics of health status. These predictive algorithms were initially developed to forecast and manage expenditures, yet they represent an underutilized tool that could contribute significantly to health research. In this paper, we describe the properties and possible applications of one such "health risk score," the DxCG Intelligence tool. We link claims and administrative datasets on a cohort of U.S. workers during the period 1996-2011 (N = 14,161). We examine the risk score's association with incident diagnoses of five disease conditions, and we link employee data with the National Death Index to characterize its relationship with mortality. We review prior studies documenting the risk score's association with other health and non-health outcomes, including healthcare utilization, early retirement, and occupational injury. We find that the risk score is associated with outcomes across a variety of health and non-health domains. These examples demonstrate the broad applicability of this tool in multiple fields of research and illustrate its utility as a measure of overall health status for epidemiologists and other health researchers.

  18. Using "big data" to capture overall health status: properties and predictive value of a claims-based health risk score.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rita Hamad

    Full Text Available Investigators across many fields often struggle with how best to capture an individual's overall health status, with options including both subjective and objective measures. With the increasing availability of "big data," researchers can now take advantage of novel metrics of health status. These predictive algorithms were initially developed to forecast and manage expenditures, yet they represent an underutilized tool that could contribute significantly to health research. In this paper, we describe the properties and possible applications of one such "health risk score," the DxCG Intelligence tool.We link claims and administrative datasets on a cohort of U.S. workers during the period 1996-2011 (N = 14,161. We examine the risk score's association with incident diagnoses of five disease conditions, and we link employee data with the National Death Index to characterize its relationship with mortality. We review prior studies documenting the risk score's association with other health and non-health outcomes, including healthcare utilization, early retirement, and occupational injury.We find that the risk score is associated with outcomes across a variety of health and non-health domains. These examples demonstrate the broad applicability of this tool in multiple fields of research and illustrate its utility as a measure of overall health status for epidemiologists and other health researchers.

  19. External validation of a clinical scoring system for the risk of gestational diabetes mellitus

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Leeuwen, M.; Opmeer, B. C.; Zweers, E. J. K.; van Ballegooie, E.; ter Brugge, H. G.; de Valk, H. W.; Visser, G. H. A.; Mol, B. W. J.

    2009-01-01

    Aim: A prediction rule for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) could be helpful in early detection and increased efficiency of screening. A prediction rule by means of a clinical scoring system is available, but has never been validated externally. The aim of this study was to validate the scoring s

  20. Machine learning for prediction of all-cause mortality in patients with suspected coronary artery disease: a 5-year multicentre prospective registry analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Motwani, Manish; Dey, Damini; Berman, Daniel S; Germano, Guido; Achenbach, Stephan; Al-Mallah, Mouaz H; Andreini, Daniele; Budoff, Matthew J; Cademartiri, Filippo; Callister, Tracy Q; Chang, Hyuk-Jae; Chinnaiyan, Kavitha; Chow, Benjamin J W; Cury, Ricardo C; Delago, Augustin; Gomez, Millie; Gransar, Heidi; Hadamitzky, Martin; Hausleiter, Joerg; Hindoyan, Niree; Feuchtner, Gudrun; Kaufmann, Philipp A; Kim, Yong-Jin; Leipsic, Jonathon; Lin, Fay Y; Maffei, Erica; Marques, Hugo; Pontone, Gianluca; Raff, Gilbert; Rubinshtein, Ronen; Shaw, Leslee J; Stehli, Julia; Villines, Todd C; Dunning, Allison; Min, James K; Slomka, Piotr J

    2017-02-14

    Traditional prognostic risk assessment in patients undergoing non-invasive imaging is based upon a limited selection of clinical and imaging findings. Machine learning (ML) can consider a greater number and complexity of variables. Therefore, we investigated the feasibility and accuracy of ML to predict 5-year all-cause mortality (ACM) in patients undergoing coronary computed tomographic angiography (CCTA), and compared the performance to existing clinical or CCTA metrics. The analysis included 10 030 patients with suspected coronary artery disease and 5-year follow-up from the COronary CT Angiography EvaluatioN For Clinical Outcomes: An InteRnational Multicenter registry. All patients underwent CCTA as their standard of care. Twenty-five clinical and 44 CCTA parameters were evaluated, including segment stenosis score (SSS), segment involvement score (SIS), modified Duke index (DI), number of segments with non-calcified, mixed or calcified plaques, age, sex, gender, standard cardiovascular risk factors, and Framingham risk score (FRS). Machine learning involved automated feature selection by information gain ranking, model building with a boosted ensemble algorithm, and 10-fold stratified cross-validation. Seven hundred and forty-five patients died during 5-year follow-up. Machine learning exhibited a higher area-under-curve compared with the FRS or CCTA severity scores alone (SSS, SIS, DI) for predicting all-cause mortality (ML: 0.79 vs. FRS: 0.61, SSS: 0.64, SIS: 0.64, DI: 0.62; PMachine learning combining clinical and CCTA data was found to predict 5-year ACM significantly better than existing clinical or CCTA metrics alone.

  1. A Risk-Scoring Model to Predict One-year Major Adverse Cardiac Events after Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyed-Ebrahim Kassaian

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: The aim of the present study was to develop a scoring system for predicting 1-year major adverse cardiac events (MACE, including mortality, target vessel or target lesion revascularization, coronary artery bypass graft surgery, and non-fatal myocardial infarction after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI.Methods: The data were extracted from a single center PCI registry. The score was created based on the clinical, procedural, and laboratory characteristics of 8206 patients who underwent PCI between April 2004 and October 2009. Consecutive patients undergoing PCI between November 2009 and February 2011 (n= 2875 were included as a validation data set. Results: Diabetes mellitus, increase in the creatinine level, decrease in the left ventricular ejection fraction, presentation with the acute coronary syndrome, number of diseased vessels, primary PCI, PCI on the left anterior descending artery and saphenous vein graft, and stent type and diameter were identified as the predictors of the outcome and used to develop the score (R² = 0.795. The models had adequate goodness of fit (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic; p value = 0.601 and acceptable ability of discrimination (c-statistics = 0.63. The score categorized the individual patients as low-, moderate-, and high-risk for the occurrence of MACE. The validation of the model indicated a good agreement between the observed and expected risks.Conclusion: An individual risk-scoring system based on both clinical and procedural variables can be used conveniently to predict 1-year MACE after PCI. Risk classification based on this score can assist physicians in decision-making and postprocedural health care. 

  2. Biochemical outcomes after robot-assisted radical prostatectomy in patients with follow-up more than5-years

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Kwang Hyun Kim; Sey Kiat Lim; Tae-Young Shin; Byung Ha Chung; Sung Joon Hong; Koon Ho Rha

    2013-01-01

    In this study,we assessed biochemical outcomes after robot-assisted radical prostatectomy (RARP).Between July 2005 and November 2007,one hundred and seventy-six consecutive patients treated by RARP without neoadjuvant treatment were included in this study.All procedures were performed by a single surgeon and the median follow-up period was 60 months (interquartile range (IQR):59-69).The median prostate specific antigen was 7.50 ng ml-1 (IQR:5.14-11.45) and 39.2% of the patients were classified as intermediate risk and 15.3% were classified as high risk; on final pathological examination,35.2% of the patients had non-organ confined disease and 37.5%and 14.2% had Gleason scores of 7 and 8-10,respectively.The biochemical recurrence (BCR)-free survival rates at 3 and 5 years were 85.6% and 81.2%,respectively.The 5-year BCR-free survival rates stratified by pathologic Gleason scores were 93.1% in Gleason scores of 6 or less,74.5% in a Gleason score of 7,and 58.1% in Gleason scores of 8 or greater,respectively (P<0.001).When stratified by pathologic stage,the BCR-free survival rates were 89.8% in pT2 patients,66.2% in pT3a patients,and 39.3% in pT3b patients at 5 years following RARP,respectively (P<0.001).Preoperative prostate-specific antigen (PSA),pathologic stage,postoperative Gleason score and surgical margin status were independently associated with BCR in multivariate analysis.In this study,we report biochemical outcomes after RARP with the longest follow-up periods to date in Asian men.We found that robotic surgery provided satisfactory biochemical outcomes,and that RARP is a safe and effective procedure in terms of oncologic outcomes.

  3. Power of IRT in GWAS: successful QTL mapping of sum score phenotypes depends on interplay between risk allele frequency, variance explained by the risk allele, and test characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Berg, Stéphanie M; Service, Susan K

    2012-12-01

    As data from sequencing studies in humans accumulate, rare genetic variants influencing liability to disease and disorders are expected to be identified. Three simulation studies show that characteristics and properties of diagnostic instruments interact with risk allele frequency to affect the power to detect a quantitative trait locus (QTL) based on a test score derived from symptom counts or questionnaire items. Clinical tests, that is, tests that show a positively skewed phenotypic sum score distribution in the general population, are optimal to find rare risk<