WorldWideScience

Sample records for 30-year daily rainfall

  1. Statistical Analysis of 30 Years Rainfall Data: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arvind, G.; Ashok Kumar, P.; Girish Karthi, S.; Suribabu, C. R.

    2017-07-01

    Rainfall is a prime input for various engineering design such as hydraulic structures, bridges and culverts, canals, storm water sewer and road drainage system. The detailed statistical analysis of each region is essential to estimate the relevant input value for design and analysis of engineering structures and also for crop planning. A rain gauge station located closely in Trichy district is selected for statistical analysis where agriculture is the prime occupation. The daily rainfall data for a period of 30 years is used to understand normal rainfall, deficit rainfall, Excess rainfall and Seasonal rainfall of the selected circle headquarters. Further various plotting position formulae available is used to evaluate return period of monthly, seasonally and annual rainfall. This analysis will provide useful information for water resources planner, farmers and urban engineers to assess the availability of water and create the storage accordingly. The mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation of monthly and annual rainfall was calculated to check the rainfall variability. From the calculated results, the rainfall pattern is found to be erratic. The best fit probability distribution was identified based on the minimum deviation between actual and estimated values. The scientific results and the analysis paved the way to determine the proper onset and withdrawal of monsoon results which were used for land preparation and sowing.

  2. Stochastic modelling of daily rainfall sequences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buishand, T.A.

    1977-01-01

    Rainfall series of different climatic regions were analysed with the aim of generating daily rainfall sequences. A survey of the data is given in I, 1. When analysing daily rainfall sequences one must be aware of the following points:
    a. Seasonality. Because of seasonal variation

  3. Maximum daily rainfall in South Korea

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Saralees Nadarajah; Dongseok Choi

    2007-08-01

    Annual maxima of daily rainfall for the years 1961–2001 are modeled for five locations in South Korea (chosen to give a good geographical representation of the country). The generalized extreme value distribution is fitted to data from each location to describe the extremes of rainfall and to predict its future behavior. We find evidence to suggest that the Gumbel distribution provides the most reasonable model for four of the five locations considered. We explore the possibility of trends in the data but find no evidence suggesting trends. We derive estimates of 10, 50, 100, 1000, 5000, 10,000, 50,000 and 100,000 year return levels for daily rainfall and describe how they vary with the locations. This paper provides the first application of extreme value distributions to rainfall data from South Korea.

  4. Large Salt Dust Storms Follow a 30-Year Rainfall Cycle in the Mar Chiquita Lake (Cordoba, Argentina.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrique H Bucher

    Full Text Available Starting in 2006, a new source of intense salt dust storms developed in Mar Chiquita (Córdoba, Argentina, the largest saline lake in South America. Storms originate from vast mudflats left by a 30-year expansion-retreat cycle of the lake due to changes in the regional rainfall regime. The annual frequency of salt dust storms correlated with the size of the salt mudflats. Events were restricted to the coldest months, and reached up to 800 km from the source. Occurrence of dust storms was associated with specific surface colors and textures easily identifiable in satellite images. High-emission surfaces were characterized by the presence of sodium sulfate hydrous/anhydrous crystals (mirabilite and thenardite, and a superficial and variable water table, which may result in the periodic development of a characteristic "fluffy" surface derived from salt precipitation-dissolution processes. HYSPLIT model simulation estimates a deposition maximum near the sources (of about 2.5 kg/ha/yr, and a decreasing trend from the emission area outwards, except for the relative secondary maximum modeled over the mountain ranges in southern Bolivia and northern Argentina due to an orographic effect. The 2009 total deposition of salt dust generated in Mar Chiquita was estimated at 6.5 million tons.

  5. Large Salt Dust Storms Follow a 30-Year Rainfall Cycle in the Mar Chiquita Lake (Córdoba, Argentina).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bucher, Enrique H; Stein, Ariel F

    2016-01-01

    Starting in 2006, a new source of intense salt dust storms developed in Mar Chiquita (Córdoba, Argentina), the largest saline lake in South America. Storms originate from vast mudflats left by a 30-year expansion-retreat cycle of the lake due to changes in the regional rainfall regime. The annual frequency of salt dust storms correlated with the size of the salt mudflats. Events were restricted to the coldest months, and reached up to 800 km from the source. Occurrence of dust storms was associated with specific surface colors and textures easily identifiable in satellite images. High-emission surfaces were characterized by the presence of sodium sulfate hydrous/anhydrous crystals (mirabilite and thenardite), and a superficial and variable water table, which may result in the periodic development of a characteristic "fluffy" surface derived from salt precipitation-dissolution processes. HYSPLIT model simulation estimates a deposition maximum near the sources (of about 2.5 kg/ha/yr), and a decreasing trend from the emission area outwards, except for the relative secondary maximum modeled over the mountain ranges in southern Bolivia and northern Argentina due to an orographic effect. The 2009 total deposition of salt dust generated in Mar Chiquita was estimated at 6.5 million tons.

  6. Preliminary results of a 30-year daily rainfall data base in southern Italy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Federico, Stefano; Avolio, Elenio; Pasqualoni, Loredana;

    2009-01-01

    are important for Calabria: a) storms originating in the lee of the Alps; b) storms that enter the Basin or develop in the western Mediterranean (Gulf of Lyon, Rhone valley, Iberia, Gibraltar); c) storms from northern Africa; d) storms moving over the central Mediterranean from Balkans and eastern Europe. Again...

  7. Observed daily large-scale rainfall patterns during BOBMEX-1999

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A K Mitra; M Das Gupta; R K Paliwal; S V Singh

    2003-06-01

    A daily rainfall dataset and the corresponding rainfall maps have been produced by objective analysis of rainfall data. The satellite estimate of rainfall and the raingauge values are merged to form the final analysis. Associated with epochs of monsoon these rainfall maps are able to show the rainfall activities over India and the Bay of Bengal region during the BOBMEX period. The intra-seasonal variations of rainfall during BOBMEX are also seen using these data. This dataset over the oceanic region compares well with other available popular datasets like GPCP and CMAP. Over land this dataset brings out the features of monsoon in more detail due to the availability of more local raingauge stations.

  8. Stochastic generation of daily rainfall events based on rainfall pattern classification and Copula-based rainfall characteristics simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Y. P.; Gao, C.

    2016-12-01

    To deal with the problem of having no or insufficiently long rainfall record, developing a stochastic rainfall model is very essential. This study first proposed a stochastic model of daily rainfall events based on classification and simulation of different rainfall patterns, and copula-based joint simulation of rainfall characteristics. Compared with current stochastic rainfall models, this new model not only keeps the dependence structure of rainfall characteristics by using copula functions, but also takes various rainfall patterns that may cause different hydrological responses to watershed into consideration. In order to determine the appropriate number of representative rainfall patterns in an objective way, we also introduced clustering validation measures to the stochastic model. Afterwards, the developed stochastic rainfall model is applied to 39 gauged meteorological stations in Zhejiang province, East China, and is then extended to ungauged stations for validation by applying the self-organizing map (SOM) method. The final results show that the 39 stations can be classified into seven regions that further fall into three categories based on rainfall generation mechanisms, i.e., plum-rain control region, typhoon-rain control region and typhoon-plum-rain compatible region. Rainfall patterns of each station can be classified into five or six types based on clustering validation measures. This study shows that the stochastic rainfall model is robust and can be applied to both gauged and ungauged stations for generating long rainfall record.

  9. Attributes for MRB_E2RF1 Catchments by Major River Basins in the Conterminous United States: 30-Year Average Daily Minimum Temperature, 1971-2000

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This tabular data set represents thecatchment-average for the 30-year (1971-2000) average daily minimum temperature in Celsius multiplied by 100 compiled for every...

  10. Rainfall Distributions in Sri Lanka in Time and Space: An Analysis Based on Daily Rainfall Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. P. Burt

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Daily rainfall totals are analyzed for the main agro-climatic zones of Sri Lanka for the period 1976–2006. The emphasis is on daily rainfall rather than on longer-period totals, in particular the number of daily falls exceeding given threshold totals. For one station (Mapalana, where a complete daily series is available from 1950, a longer-term perspective on changes over half a century is provided. The focus here is particularly on rainfall in March and April, given the sensitivity of agricultural decisions to early southwest monsoon rainfall at the beginning of the Yala cultivation season but other seasons are also considered, in particular the northeast monsoon. Rainfall across Sri Lanka over three decades is investigated in relation to the main atmospheric drivers known to affect climate in the region: sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, of which the former are shown to be more important. The strong influence of El Niño and La Niña phases on various aspects of the daily rainfall distribution in Sri Lanka is confirmed: positive correlations with Pacific sea-surface temperatures during the north east monsoon and negative correlations at other times. It is emphasized in the discussion that Sri Lanka must be placed in its regional context and it is important to draw on regional-scale research across the Indian subcontinent and the Bay of Bengal.

  11. Inter-decadal variations in the linkages between ENSO, the IOD and south-eastern Australian springtime rainfall in the past 30 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Eun-Pa; Hendon, Harry H.; Zhao, Mei; Yin, Yonghong

    2017-07-01

    The 30 year period 1985-2014 experienced a swing of the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) from the warm phase to the cold phase. Here we investigate variation of the relation between El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole mode (IOD) and resultant changes in the predictability of the IOD and south-eastern Australian (SEA) springtime rainfall associated with this swing in the IPO. Using observational analyses, we show that during the warm phase of the IPO in the 1980s-1990s, the amplitudes of ENSO and the IOD were large, and the correlation between them was high; thus predictability of the IOD was high. Nevertheless, during these decades SEA spring rainfall was only weakly related to ENSO and the IOD, and therefore predictability of SEA rainfall was low. In contrast, during the cold phase of the IPO in the 2000s, the opposite was found: the IOD occurred more independently from ENSO, so the IOD was less predictable. Nonetheless, SEA spring rainfall was more strongly related to ENSO and the IOD, and therefore, SEA rainfall was more predictable in the 2000s than in the 1980s-1990s. The cause of this decadal variation in the relationship of SEA rainfall with ENSO and the IOD between the recent warm and cold states of the IPO appears to be a systematic zonal variation of the rainfall anomalies in the tropical Indo-Pacific associated with the IOD and ENSO and related changes in the Rossby wave train path over Australia.

  12. Multi-daily rainfall climatology and change for water resource management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gajic-Capka, M.; Capka, B.

    2009-09-01

    The ongoing study on precipitation regime in the Croatian Drava River basin is intended to be used by decision makers in water and energy resource management. One side aspect of this study is the variability in daily and multi-daily amounts (2- and 5-days), the indices defined by WMO and amended by the end-users, which are critical for applications in assessment and maintenance of flooding. The daily rainfall series are from the period 1961-2000, collected at two rain gauges: Varazdin in the upper part of the Croatian Drava River basin and Osijek in the low one, not far from its mouse into the Danube River. The applied Gamma probability distribution makes it possible to estimate the likelihood of rainfall at different durations within a specific range. The generalized extreme value distribution is employed to compute the design values of annual maximal 1-, 2- and 5-day precipitation amounts with different return periods indicating at precipitation risk. In addition to the extreme precipitation characteristics of the current climate, the evolution of trends in annual maximal 1-, 2- and 5-day rainfall amounts are derived from linear regression during the period 1901-2007 at Osijek and for the both stations since 1951. Statistical significance at the 5% confidence level is established using the Mann-Kendall rank non-parametric test. The coefficients of variation, indicating interannual variability, are then computed for consecutive 30-year moving time windows (1 year step) for each parameter. Trends for 30-year periods with the 10-year step (1901-1930, 1911-1940, ....) were computed to detect the possible changes in variability. At the level of the synoptic measurements, the analysis of weather types related to the extreme rainfall events would be deduced.

  13. Interpolation of daily rainfall using spatiotemporal models and clustering

    KAUST Repository

    Militino, A. F.

    2014-06-11

    Accumulated daily rainfall in non-observed locations on a particular day is frequently required as input to decision-making tools in precision agriculture or for hydrological or meteorological studies. Various solutions and estimation procedures have been proposed in the literature depending on the auxiliary information and the availability of data, but most such solutions are oriented to interpolating spatial data without incorporating temporal dependence. When data are available in space and time, spatiotemporal models usually provide better solutions. Here, we analyse the performance of three spatiotemporal models fitted to the whole sampled set and to clusters within the sampled set. The data consists of daily observations collected from 87 manual rainfall gauges from 1990 to 2010 in Navarre, Spain. The accuracy and precision of the interpolated data are compared with real data from 33 automated rainfall gauges in the same region, but placed in different locations than the manual rainfall gauges. Root mean squared error by months and by year are also provided. To illustrate these models, we also map interpolated daily precipitations and standard errors on a 1km2 grid in the whole region. © 2014 Royal Meteorological Society.

  14. Generalized linear model for estimation of missing daily rainfall data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Nurul Aishah; Deni, Sayang Mohd; Ramli, Norazan Mohamed

    2017-04-01

    The analysis of rainfall data with no missingness is vital in various applications including climatological, hydrological and meteorological study. The issue of missing data is a serious concern since it could introduce bias and lead to misleading conclusions. In this study, five imputation methods including simple arithmetic average, normal ratio method, inverse distance weighting method, correlation coefficient weighting method and geographical coordinate were used to estimate the missing data. However, these imputation methods ignored the seasonality in rainfall dataset which could give more reliable estimation. Thus this study is aimed to estimate the missingness in daily rainfall data by using generalized linear model with gamma and Fourier series as the link function and smoothing technique, respectively. Forty years daily rainfall data for the period from 1975 until 2014 which consists of seven stations at Kelantan region were selected for the analysis. The findings indicated that the imputation methods could provide more accurate estimation values based on the least mean absolute error, root mean squared error and coefficient of variation root mean squared error when seasonality in the dataset are considered.

  15. Diagnostic statistics of daily rainfall variability in an evolving climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Panagoulia

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available To investigate the character of daily rainfall variability under present and future climate described via global warming a suite of diagnostic statistics was used. The rainfall was modeled as a stochastic process coupled with atmospheric circulation. In this study we used an automated objective classification of daily patterns based on optimized fuzzy rules. This kind of classification method provided circulation patterns suitable for downscaling of General Circulation Model (GCM-generated precipitation. The precipitation diagnostics included first and second order moments, wet and dry-day renewal process probabilities and spell lengths as well as low-frequency variability via the standard deviation of monthly totals. These descriptors were applied to nine elevation zones and entire area of the Mesochora mountainous catchment in Central Greece for observed, 1×CO2 and 2×CO2 downscaled precipitation. The statistics' comparison revealed significant differences in the most of the daily diagnostics (e.g. mean wet-day amount, 95th percentile of wet-day amount, dry to wet probability, spell statistics (e.g. mean wet/dry spell length, and low-frequency diagnostic (standard deviation of monthly precipitation total between warm (2×CO2 and observed scenario in a progressive rate from lower to upper zone. The differences were very greater for the catchment area. In the light of these results, an increase in rainfall occurrence with diminished rainfall amount and a sequence of less consecutive dry days could describe the behaviour of a possible future climate on the examined catchment.

  16. Heavy daily-rainfall characteristics over the Gauteng Province

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2009-02-09

    Feb 9, 2009 ... Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, Geography Building 2-12, University of .... An example of heavy rainfall 'climatology' in the scientific .... rainfall stations in the calculation of the area-average rainfall.

  17. Non-stationarity in daily and sub-daily intense rainfall – Part 1: Sydney, Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Jakob

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available This study was driven by a need to clarify how variations in climate might affect intense rainfall and the potential for flooding. Sub-daily durations are of particular interest for urban applications. Worldwide, few such observation-based studies exist, which is mainly due to limitations in data. While there are still large discrepancies between precipitation data sets from observations and models, both show that there is a tendency for moist regions to become wetter and for dry regions to become drier. However, changes in extreme conditions may show the opposite sign to those in average conditions. Where changes in observed intense precipitation have been studied, this has typically been for daily durations or longer.

    The purpose of this two-part study is to examine daily and sub-daily rainfall extremes for evidence of non-stationarity. Here the problem was addressed by supplementing one long record (Part 1 by a set of shorter records for a 30-yr concurrent period (Part 2. Variations in frequency and magnitude of rainfall extremes across durations from 6 min to 72 h were assessed using data from sites in the south-east of Australia. For the analyses presented in this paper, a peaks-over-threshold approach was chosen since it allows investigating changes in frequency as well as magnitude. Non-parametric approaches were used to assess changes in frequency, magnitude, and quantile estimates as well as the statistical significance of changes for one station (Sydney Observatory Hill for the period 1921 to 2005. Deviations from the long-term average vary with season, duration, and threshold. The effects of climate variations are most readily detected for the highest thresholds. Deviations from the long-term average tend to be larger for frequencies than for magnitudes, and changes in frequency and magnitude may have opposite signs.

    Investigations presented in this paper show that variations in frequency and magnitude of events at

  18. A comparison among spatial interpolation techniques for daily rainfall data in Sichuan Province, China

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Xu, Wenbo; Zou, Yangjuan; Zhang, Guoping; Linderman, Marc

    2015-01-01

    This paper focuses on testing appropriate methods to produce gridded rainfall surfaces based on the daily rainfall observed at 43 meteorological stations in the Sichuan Province during rainy seasons of 2008–2013...

  19. Nonstationarity of daily rainfall annual maxima in Puglia (Southern Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Totaro, Vincenzo; Gioia, Andrea; Iacobellis, Vito

    2017-04-01

    Extreme flood events occurring in the last decades, due to climatic conditions in rapid evolution and/or changes in land cover, has lead the scientific community to develop and improve probabilistic techniques in order to take into account these effects, as also requested by the EU Floods Directive 2007/60. In the recent literature are becoming more popular studies that investigate the nonstationarity of the variables usually treated in hydrology through the analysis of their trend behavior. In this context it is also useful to assess the impact that the climate and /or land cover modifications have on the performances of the probabilistic stationary models used to predict hydrological variables such as rainfall and flood peaks. Among several proposed approaches, we use the redefined concept of return period and risk by considering the variability over time of the position parameter of the GEV distribution, with the subsequent discussion about the implications of analytical and technical characters. The analysis was carried out on the time series of annual maximum of daily precipitation available for a broad number of rainfall gauged stations in Puglia (Southern Italy). The investigation, conducted at the regional scale, leads to the identification of areas with different significativity of the statistical tests usually performed in order to assess nonstationarity. The evaluated change of return period leads to considerations useful to redesign methods for regional analysis of flood frequency.

  20. Random Modeling of Daily Rainfall and Runoff Using a Seasonal Model and Wavelet Denoising

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chien-ming Chou

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Instead of Fourier smoothing, this study applied wavelet denoising to acquire the smooth seasonal mean and corresponding perturbation term from daily rainfall and runoff data in traditional seasonal models, which use seasonal means for hydrological time series forecasting. The denoised rainfall and runoff time series data were regarded as the smooth seasonal mean. The probability distribution of the percentage coefficients can be obtained from calibrated daily rainfall and runoff data. For validated daily rainfall and runoff data, percentage coefficients were randomly generated according to the probability distribution and the law of linear proportion. Multiplying the generated percentage coefficient by the smooth seasonal mean resulted in the corresponding perturbation term. Random modeling of daily rainfall and runoff can be obtained by adding the perturbation term to the smooth seasonal mean. To verify the accuracy of the proposed method, daily rainfall and runoff data for the Wu-Tu watershed were analyzed. The analytical results demonstrate that wavelet denoising enhances the precision of daily rainfall and runoff modeling of the seasonal model. In addition, the wavelet denoising technique proposed in this study can obtain the smooth seasonal mean of rainfall and runoff processes and is suitable for modeling actual daily rainfall and runoff processes.

  1. Understanding the Rainfall Daily Climatology of Northwestern Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brito-Castillo, L.

    2007-05-01

    Maximum monthly precipitation (MMP) over northwestern Mexico is not concurrent because it occurs in different months from July through September. However, instead of occurring progressively from one month to the next as latitude increases, as it might be logic since rains move progressively from south to north as monsoon develops, MMP occurs in July in latitudes of Jalisco state, then MMP shifts to August more to the north in latitudes of Nayarit state and along the eastern coast of the Gulf of California, then it occurs in July in higher latitudes through the main axis of the Sierra Madre Occidental (SMO), and finally MMP shifts to September to the west in the California Peninsula. The maximum monthly streamflow occurs in a similar pattern as MMP does but one month later. When daily rainfall climatology of the region is calculated, i.e. the long-term mean per day from stations with more than 20 years of data between 1940 and 2004, it is possible to understand why the behavior of MMP occurs in a July-August-July pattern from south to north. Preliminary results indicate that at latitudes of Nayarit state normal frequent storms with abundant rains develop at the end of July and through the August. These rains sum to the rains that move from the south to the north, as monsoon develops increasing the volume of precipitations at those latitudes in August. To the east crossing the SMO through northwestern Zacatecas state maximum volume of precipitations also is observed in August. However, in higher latitudes it is not observed any increment of rains in August and consequently maximum volume of precipitations occurs in July. To understand the dynamics of the rains at the latitudes of Nayarit state it results necessary to investigate the source of these local rains and explain why the increase of precipitations in August is limited at those latitudes.

  2. Gridded daily Indian monsoon rainfall for 14 seasons: Merged TRMM and IMD gauge analyzed values

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Ashis K Mitra; I M Momin; E N Rajagopal; S Basu; M N Rajeevan; T N Krishnamurti

    2013-10-01

    Indian monsoon is an important component of earth’s climate system. Daily rainfall data for longer period is vital to study components and processes related to Indian monsoon. Daily observed gridded rainfall data covering both land and adjoining oceanic regions are required for numerical model validation and model development for monsoon. In this study, a new gridded daily Indian rainfall dataset at 1° × 1° latitude/longitude resolution covering 14 monsoon seasons (1998–2011) are described. This merged satellite gauge rainfall dataset (NMSG) combines TRMM TMPA rainfall estimates with gauge information from IMD gridded data. Compared to TRMM and GPCP daily rainfall data, the current NMSG daily data has more information due to inclusion of local gauge analysed values. In terms of bias and skill scores this dataset is superior to other daily rainfall datasets. In a mean climatological sense and also for anomalous monsoon seasons, this merged satellite gauge data brings out more detailed features of monsoon rainfall. The difference of NMSG and GPCP looks significant. This dataset will be useful to researchers for monsoon intraseasonal studies and monsoon model development research.

  3. A new, long-term daily satellite-based rainfall dataset for operational monitoring in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maidment, Ross I.; Grimes, David; Black, Emily; Tarnavsky, Elena; Young, Matthew; Greatrex, Helen; Allan, Richard P.; Stein, Thorwald; Nkonde, Edson; Senkunda, Samuel; Alcántara, Edgar Misael Uribe

    2017-05-01

    Rainfall information is essential for many applications in developing countries, and yet, continually updated information at fine temporal and spatial scales is lacking. In Africa, rainfall monitoring is particularly important given the close relationship between climate and livelihoods. To address this information gap, this paper describes two versions (v2.0 and v3.0) of the TAMSAT daily rainfall dataset based on high-resolution thermal-infrared observations, available from 1983 to the present. The datasets are based on the disaggregation of 10-day (v2.0) and 5-day (v3.0) total TAMSAT rainfall estimates to a daily time-step using daily cold cloud duration. This approach provides temporally consistent historic and near-real time daily rainfall information for all of Africa. The estimates have been evaluated using ground-based observations from five countries with contrasting rainfall climates (Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, Uganda, and Zambia) and compared to other satellite-based rainfall estimates. The results indicate that both versions of the TAMSAT daily estimates reliably detects rainy days, but have less skill in capturing rainfall amount—results that are comparable to the other datasets.

  4. Statistical framework to simulate daily rainfall series conditional on upper-air predictor variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langousis, Andreas; Kaleris, Vassilios

    2014-05-01

    We propose a statistical framework to generate synthetic rainfall time series at daily resolution, conditional on predictor variables indicative of the atmospheric circulation at the mesoscale. We do so by first introducing a dimensionless measure to assess the relative influence of upper-air variables at different pressure levels on ground-level rainfall statistics, and then simulating rainfall occurrence and amount by proper conditioning on the selected atmospheric predictors. The proposed scheme for conditional rainfall simulation operates at a daily time step (avoiding discrete approaches for identification of weather states), can incorporate any possible number and combination of predictor variables, while it is capable of reproducing rainfall seasonality directly from the variation of upper-air variables, without any type of seasonal analysis or modeling. The suggested downscaling approach is tested using atmospheric data from the ERA-Interim archive and daily rainfall measurements from western Greece. The model is found to accurately reproduce several statistics of actual rainfall time series, at both annual and seasonal levels, including wet day fractions, the alternation of wet and dry intervals, the distributions of dry and wet spell lengths, the distribution of rainfall intensities in wet days, short-range dependencies present in historical rainfall records, the distribution of yearly rainfall maxima, dependencies of rainfall statistics on the observation scale, and long-term climatic features present in historical rainfall records. The suggested approach is expected to serve as a useful tool for stochastic rainfall simulation conditional on climate model outputs at a regional level, where climate change impacts and risks are assessed.

  5. Simulation of mosquitoes population dynamic based on rainfall and average daily temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widayani, H.; Seprianus, Nuraini, N.; Arum, J.

    2014-02-01

    This paper proposed rainfall and average daily temperature approximation functions using least square method with trigonometry polynomial. Error value from this method is better than Fast Fourier Transform method. This approximation is used to accommodate climatic factors into deterministic model of mosquitoes population by constructing a carrying capacity function which contains rainfall and average daily temperature functions. We develop a mathematical model for mosquitoes population dynamic which formulated by Yang et al (2010) with dynamic parameter of a daily rainfall as well as temperature on that model. Two fixed points, trivial and non-trivial, are obtained when constant entomological parameters assumed. Basic offspring number, Q0 as mosquitoes reproduction parameter is constructed. Non-trivial fixed point is stable if and only if Q0 > 1. Numerical simulation shown the dynamics of mosquitoes population significantly affected by rainfall and average daily temperature function.

  6. COMBINATION OF ECMWF REANALYZED DAILY RAINFALL AND PENTAD CMAP IN CHINA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    In this study, 16 combinations of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) reanalyzed daily rainfall and the pentad CMAP in China for the period 1980-1993(1 May-31 Dec.) were calculated. Correlation analysis was used to roughly evaluate daily rainfall for the whole of China and a combination of RPC (rotated principal component) and wavelet analyses was applied to data on observed and combined daily rainfall to obtain a detailed evaluation of the quality of these combined datasets in 6 selected major rainfall regions of eastern China. The results showed that except for intraweekly fluctuation, the best combination was roughly similar to or accorded well with observation in the aspects of space variation patterns and long period rainfall fluctuations related to monsoon onset and serious meteorologic disasters, indicating that this combination yielded better values of long term daily mean and standard deviation through the pentad CMAP (CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation), and can also represent rainfall fluctuations through the reanalyzed daily rainfall.

  7. COMBINATION OF ECMWF REANALYZED DAILY RAINFALL AND PENTAD CMAP IN CHINA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    崔茂常; 朱海

    2001-01-01

    In this study, 16 combinations of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) reanalyzed daily rainfall and the pentad CMAP in China for the period 1980- 1993( 1May - 31 Dec. ) were calculated. Correlation analysis was used to roughly evaluate daily rainfall for the whole of China and a combination of RPC (rotated principal component) and wavelet analyses was applied to data on observed and combined daily rainfall to obtain a detailed evaluation of the quality of these combined datasets in 6 selected major rainfall regions of eastern China. The results showed that except for intraweekly fluctuation, the best combination was roughly similar to or accorded well with observation in the aspects of space variation patterns and long period rainfall fluctuations related to monsoon onset and serious meteorologic disasters, indicating that this combination yielded better values of long term daily mean and standard deviation through the pentad CMAP ( CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation), and can also represent rainfall fluctuations through the reanalyzed daily rainfall.

  8. Power-law scaling in daily rainfall patterns and consequences in urban stream discharges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jeryang; Krueger, Elisabeth H.; Kim, Dongkyun; Rao, Suresh C.

    2016-04-01

    Poissonian rainfall has been frequently used for modelling stream discharge in a catchment at the daily scale. Generally, it is assumed that the daily rainfall depth is described by memoryless exponential distribution which is transformed to stream discharge, resulting in an analytical pdf for discharge [Gamma distribution]. While it is true that catchment hydrological filtering processes (censored by constant rate ET losses, and first-order recession) increases "memory", reflected in 1/f noise in discharge time series. Here, we show that for urban watersheds in South Korea: (1) the observation of daily rainfall depths follow power-law pdfs, and spectral slopes range between 0.2 ~ 0.4; and (2) the stream discharge pdfs have power-law tails. These observation results suggest that multiple hydro-climatic factors (e.g., non-stationarity of rainfall patterns) and hydrologic filtering (increasing impervious area; more complex urban drainage networks) influence the catchment hydrologic responses. We test the role of such factors using a parsimonious model, using different types of daily rainfall patterns (e.g., power-law distributed rainfall depth with Poisson distribution in its frequency) and urban settings to reproduce patterns similar to those observed in empirical records. Our results indicate that fractality in temporally up-scaled rainfall, and the consequences of large extreme events are preserved as high discharge events in urbanizing catchments. Implications of these results to modeling urban hydrologic responses and impacts on receiving waters are discussed.

  9. Homogeneous clusters over India using probability density function of daily rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulkarni, Ashwini

    2017-07-01

    The Indian landmass has been divided into homogeneous clusters by applying the cluster analysis to the probability density function of a century-long time series of daily summer monsoon (June through September) rainfall at 357 grids over India, each of approximately 100 km × 100 km. The analysis gives five clusters over Indian landmass; only cluster 5 happened to be the contiguous region and all other clusters are dispersed away which confirms the erratic behavior of daily rainfall over India. The area averaged seasonal rainfall over cluster 5 has a very strong relationship with Indian summer monsoon rainfall; also, the rainfall variability over this region is modulated by the most important mode of climate system, i.e., El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This cluster could be considered as the representative of the entire Indian landmass to examine monsoon variability. The two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test supports that the cumulative distribution functions of daily rainfall over cluster 5 and India as a whole do not differ significantly. The clustering algorithm is also applied to two time epochs 1901-1975 and 1976-2010 to examine the possible changes in clusters in a recent warming period. The clusters are drastically different in two time periods. They are more dispersed in recent period implying the more erroneous distribution of daily rainfall in recent period.

  10. Estimate of annual daily maximum rainfall and intense rain equation for the Formiga municipality, MG, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovana Mara Rodrigues Borges

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge of the probabilistic behavior of rainfall is extremely important to the design of drainage systems, dam spillways, and other hydraulic projects. This study therefore examined statistical models to predict annual daily maximum rainfall as well as models of heavy rain for the city of Formiga - MG. To do this, annual maximum daily rainfall data were ranked in decreasing order that best describes the statistical distribution by exceedance probability. Daily rainfall disaggregation methodology was used for the intense rain model studies and adjusted with Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF and Exponential models. The study found that the Gumbel model better adhered to the data regarding observed frequency as indicated by the Chi-squared test, and that the exponential model best conforms to the observed data to predict intense rains.

  11. Relationships between Rainy Days, Mean Daily Intensity, and Seasonal Rainfall over the Koyna Catchment during 1961–2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nandargi, S.; Mulye, S. S.

    2012-01-01

    There are limitations in using monthly rainfall totals in studies of rainfall climatology as well as in hydrological and agricultural investigations. Variations in rainfall may be considered to result from frequency changes in the daily rainfall of the respective regime. In the present study, daily rainfall data of the stations inside the Koyna catchment has been analysed for the period of 1961–2005 to understand the relationship between the rain and rainy days, mean daily intensity (MDI) and seasonal rainfall over the catchment on monthly as well as seasonal scale. Considering the topographical location of the catchment, analysis of seasonal rainfall data of 8 stations suggests that a linear relationship fits better than the logarithmic relationship in the case of seasonal rainfall versus mean daily intensity. So far as seasonal rainfall versus number of rainy days is considered, the logarithmic relationship is found to be better. PMID:22654646

  12. Relationships between Rainy Days, Mean Daily Intensity, and Seasonal Rainfall over the Koyna Catchment during 1961–2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Nandargi

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available There are limitations in using monthly rainfall totals in studies of rainfall climatology as well as in hydrological and agricultural investigations. Variations in rainfall may be considered to result from frequency changes in the daily rainfall of the respective regime. In the present study, daily rainfall data of the stations inside the Koyna catchment has been analysed for the period of 1961–2005 to understand the relationship between the rain and rainy days, mean daily intensity (MDI and seasonal rainfall over the catchment on monthly as well as seasonal scale. Considering the topographical location of the catchment, analysis of seasonal rainfall data of 8 stations suggests that a linear relationship fits better than the logarithmic relationship in the case of seasonal rainfall versus mean daily intensity. So far as seasonal rainfall versus number of rainy days is considered, the logarithmic relationship is found to be better.

  13. Comparison of Two Stochastic Daily Rainfall Models and their Ability to Preserve Multi-year Rainfall Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamal Chowdhury, AFM; Lockart, Natalie; Willgoose, Garry; Kuczera, George; Kiem, Anthony; Parana Manage, Nadeeka

    2016-04-01

    Stochastic simulation of rainfall is often required in the simulation of streamflow and reservoir levels for water security assessment. As reservoir water levels generally vary on monthly to multi-year timescales, it is important that these rainfall series accurately simulate the multi-year variability. However, the underestimation of multi-year variability is a well-known issue in daily rainfall simulation. Focusing on this issue, we developed a hierarchical Markov Chain (MC) model in a traditional two-part MC-Gamma Distribution modelling structure, but with a new parameterization technique. We used two parameters of first-order MC process (transition probabilities of wet-to-wet and dry-to-dry days) to simulate the wet and dry days, and two parameters of Gamma distribution (mean and standard deviation of wet day rainfall) to simulate wet day rainfall depths. We found that use of deterministic Gamma parameter values results in underestimation of multi-year variability of rainfall depths. Therefore, we calculated the Gamma parameters for each month of each year from the observed data. Then, for each month, we fitted a multi-variate normal distribution to the calculated Gamma parameter values. In the model, we stochastically sampled these two Gamma parameters from the multi-variate normal distribution for each month of each year and used them to generate rainfall depth in wet days using the Gamma distribution. In another study, Mehrotra and Sharma (2007) proposed a semi-parametric Markov model. They also used a first-order MC process for rainfall occurrence simulation. But, the MC parameters were modified by using an additional factor to incorporate the multi-year variability. Generally, the additional factor is analytically derived from the rainfall over a pre-specified past periods (e.g. last 30, 180, or 360 days). They used a non-parametric kernel density process to simulate the wet day rainfall depths. In this study, we have compared the performance of our

  14. Daily rainfall variability over northeastern Argentina in the La Plata River basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García, Norberto O; Pedraza, Raúl A

    2008-12-01

    We did a brief description of the climatic behavior and after this we analyzed the temporal variation in the total number of days a year with rainfall and the number of days a year with rainfall above the 100 mm threshold at the rain gauging stations in northeastern Argentina south of the La Plata River basin. The results show an increase both in the frequency of daily rainfall, especially during the winter season, and the frequency of days with heavy rainfall starting in the early 1970s. The increase in frequency of occurrence is more significant in the case of heavy rainfall. The annual maximum rainfall was calculated for periods of 1, 3, 5, 7, and 10 consecutive days at regional rain gauging stations for the respective historical periods, and the rain intensity-duration-return period curves (IDT) were determined on a frequency analysis. The IDT curves were compared with rainfall intensity-duration data of critical storms occurring in the last decades. We noticed that the rain intensities of critical storms (mostly convective) widely exceeded the intensities given by the 100-year IDT curves, particularly for short durations. The increase in both the frequency of heavy rainfall occurrence and rain intensity from the 1970s onward shows an increase in frequency and intensity of the meso-scale convective systems in the region resulting from climatic change. These systems tend to produce rainfall of very high intensity that is spatially concentrated and which generally produces significant floods in the local rivers.

  15. A review of statistical analyses on monthly and daily rainfall in Catalonia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Lana

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available A review on recent studies about monthly and daily rainfall in Catalonia is presented. Monthly rainfall is analysed along the west Mediterranean Coast and in Catalonia, quantifying aspects as the irregularity of monthly amounts and the spatial distribution of the Standard Precipitation Index. Several statistics are applied to daily rainfall series such as their extreme value and intraannual spatial distributions, the variability of the average and standard deviation rain amounts for each month, their amount and time distributions, and time trends affecting four pluviometric indices for different percentiles and class intervals. All these different analyses constitute the continuity of the scientific study of Catalan rainfall, which started about a century ago.

  16. Recent variability and trends in UK sub-daily rainfall: evidence for more rapidly changing extremes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blenkinsop, Stephen; Fowler, Hayley

    2017-04-01

    Recent UK floods have reinforced the need for a better understanding of how its exposure to flooding may change in the future with climate change. Short-duration intense rainfall is responsible for flash flooding, particularly in fast-responding catchments and urban areas. The new generation of very-high resolution climate models are providing better simulations of such rainfall events but an improved understanding of observed variability and trends in short-duration rainfall is also required. To date this has been confounded by the lack of high quality observations but is being addressed by the INTENSE project which is gathering global datasets of sub-daily rainfall. Methods to quality control such data have been tested to produce a high quality dataset of hourly rainfall for the UK. Here we use this dataset to examine trends and variability in seasonal UK hourly rainfall extremes and compare changes with those on daily timescales. In particular we consider whether we can more readily detect changes in hourly extremes than daily extremes in the observed record. This might be expected given that several studies have provided observational evidence of larger changes in hourly and sub-hourly extremes with temperature. We therefore assess evidence for an amplified response to warming on shorter timescales. Such studies may provide additional evidence that complements that derived from climate models.

  17. Spatial Interpolation of Daily Rainfall Data for Local Climate Impact Assessment over Greater Sydney Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xihua Yang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents spatial interpolation techniques to produce finer-scale daily rainfall data from regional climate modeling. Four common interpolation techniques (ANUDEM, Spline, IDW, and Kriging were compared and assessed against station rainfall data and modeled rainfall. The performance was assessed by the mean absolute error (MAE, mean relative error (MRE, root mean squared error (RMSE, and the spatial and temporal distributions. The results indicate that Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW method is slightly better than the other three methods and it is also easy to implement in a geographic information system (GIS. The IDW method was then used to produce forty-year (1990–2009 and 2040–2059 time series rainfall data at daily, monthly, and annual time scales at a ground resolution of 100 m for the Greater Sydney Region (GSR. The downscaled daily rainfall data have been further utilized to predict rainfall erosivity and soil erosion risk and their future changes in GSR to support assessments and planning of climate change impact and adaptation in local scale.

  18. Estimation of serum glutamic oxaloacetic transaminase, serum glutamic-pyruvic transaminase, gamma-glutamyl transferase and cholesterol levels in prolonged (30 years) daily consumption coffee in people

    OpenAIRE

    J. Sudha Rani; D. S. S. K. Raju

    2016-01-01

    Background: Although prolonged (30years) coffee consumption has been associated with reduced or increased frequency of liver (SGOT, SGPT, GGT) enzymes and cholesterol levels, it is unclear whether the effect is from coffee or caffeine. Methods: A self-administered questionnaire ascertained lifestyle characteristics, including alcohol consumption, cigarette smoking, Diabetes mellitus and Dietary habits. As for drinking habit, examinees were first asked about their current drinking frequency...

  19. EAST ASIA SUMMER MONSOON ONSET DATE CALCULATED FROM OBSERVED, REANALYZED AND COMBINED DAILY RAINFALL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    In this paper, the East Asia summer monsoon onset date lines in East China are calculated by the definition similar to the traditional one, with the ECMWF reanalyzed 850 hPa daily wind and observed, reanalyzed and combined daily rainfall during 1980 ~ 1993. To make the onset date line as close as possible to the previous work, the earliest onset date limits have to be applied for the regions with different latitude and the daily mean datasets have to be smoothed by space before calculation, therefore their space-resolution is reduced to about 3° longitude ×1° latitude. The results show that the multiyear mean summer monsoon onset date lines are quite similar to each other. Compared with the one from the reanalysis, the 14-year average onset date line form combination is obviously improved in the southern Sichuan Basin and the correlation between observed and combined onset date is also slightly higher over the Huaihe valley and Northeast China. Since daily rainfall combination also improved the long term daily mean and standard deviation through the pentad CMAP, if no better daily dataset is available, such a kind of daily rainfall combination can be used to get reasonable result in the Indian monsoon region without sufficient observatories or over the North Pacific without any ground observation at all in future study.

  20. Prediction of daily rainfall by a hybrid wavelet-season-neuro technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altunkaynak, Abdusselam; Nigussie, Tewodros Assefa

    2015-10-01

    Accurate daily rainfall prediction is required for accurate streamflow prediction, flooding risk analysis, constructing a reliable flood control and early warning system. However, because of its nonlinearity, prediction of daily rainfall with high accuracy and long prediction lead time is difficult. There are many daily rainfall prediction methods in the literature, but they are known to yield inaccurate predictions with short lead time, require many physical parameters and involve complicated mathematical equations with huge computational burden. Recently, artificial neural network has been used for predicting rainfall with the objective of addressing the above mentioned problems. But still, the accuracy has not been satisfactory and predictions are with short lead time. In this study, two methods called combined season-multilayer perceptron (SAS-MP) and hybrid wavelet-season-multilayer perceptron (W-SAS-MP) were developed to enhance prediction accuracy and extend prediction lead time of daily rainfall up to 5 days by using data from two stations in Turkey. These two models were compared with the stand-alone multilayer perceptron and another most commonly used method called combined wavelet-multilayer perceptron (W-MP). The performances of the models were evaluated by using coefficient of determination, coefficient of efficiency and root mean squared error. The SAS-MP model was found to be better than W-MP in most cases, except lead time day 1, where W-MP performed better. Throughout all the lead times, however, the hybrid W-SAS-MP model performed best with CE values of 0.911 and 0.909, respectively, for prediction lead time of 1 day and 0.588 and 0.570, respectively, for prediction lead time of 5 days at Stations 17836 and 17837, respectively, at the model testing (validation) phase. Therefore, W-SAS-MP can be an appropriate tool for enhancing daily rainfall prediction accuracy and extend prediction lead time.

  1. Stochastic bias-correction of daily rainfall scenarios for hydrological applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Portoghese

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The accuracy of rainfall predictions provided by climate models is crucial for the assessment of climate change impacts on hydrological processes. In fact, the presence of bias in downscaled precipitation may produce large bias in the assessment of soil moisture dynamics, river flows and groundwater recharge.

    In this study, a comparison between statistical properties of rainfall observations and model control simulations from a Regional Climate Model (RCM was performed through a robust and meaningful representation of the precipitation process. The output of the adopted RCM was analysed and re-scaled exploiting the structure of a stochastic model of the point rainfall process. In particular, the stochastic model is able to adequately reproduce the rainfall intermittency at the synoptic scale, which is one of the crucial aspects for the Mediterranean environments. Possible alteration in the local rainfall regime was investigated by means of the historical daily time-series from a dense rain-gauge network, which were also used for the analysis of the RCM bias in terms of dry and wet periods and storm intensity. The result is a stochastic scheme for bias-correction at the RCM-cell scale, which produces a realistic representation of the daily rainfall intermittency and precipitation depths, though a residual bias in the storm intensity of longer storm events persists.

  2. Daily disaggregation of simulated monthly flows using different rainfall datasets in southern Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D.A. Hughes

    2015-09-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: There are substantial regional differences in the success of the monthly hydrological model, which inevitably affects the success of the daily disaggregation results. There are also regional differences in the success of using global rainfall data sets (Climatic Research Unit (CRU datasets for monthly, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration African Rainfall Climatology, version 2 (ARC2 satellite data for daily. The overall conclusion is that the disaggregation method presents a parsimonious approach to generating daily flow simulations from existing monthly simulations and that these daily flows are likely to be useful for some purposes (e.g. water quality modelling, but less so for others (e.g. peak flow analysis.

  3. Evaluating regional climate models for simulating sub-daily rainfall extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortés-Hernández, Virginia Edith; Zheng, Feifei; Evans, Jason; Lambert, Martin; Sharma, Ashish; Westra, Seth

    2016-09-01

    Sub-daily rainfall extremes are of significant societal interest, with implications for flash flooding and the design of urban stormwater systems. It is increasingly recognised that extreme subdaily rainfall will intensify as a result of global temperature increases, with regional climate models (RCMs) representing one of the principal lines of evidence on the likely magnitude and spatiotemporal characteristics of these changes. To evaluate the ability of RCMs to simulate subdaily extremes, it is common to compare the simulated statistical characteristics of the extreme rainfall events with those from observational records. While such analyses are important, they provide insufficient insight into whether the RCM reproduces the correct underlying physical processes; in other words, whether the model "gets the right answers for the right reasons". This paper develops a range of metrics to assess the performance of RCMs in capturing the physical mechanisms that produce extreme rainfall. These metrics include the diurnal and seasonal cycles, relationship between rainfall intensity and temperature, temporal scaling, and the spatial structure of extreme rainfall events. We evaluate a high resolution RCM—the Weather Research Forecasting model—over the Greater Sydney region, using three alternative parametrization schemes. The model shows consistency with the observations for most of the proposed metrics. Where differences exist, these are dependent on both the rainfall duration and model parameterization strategy. The use of physically meaningful performance metrics not only enhances the confidence in model simulations, but also provides better diagnostic power to assist with future model improvement.

  4. Producing Daily and Embedded Hourly Rainfall Data Using a Novel Weather Generator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ching-Pin Tung

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The number of worldwide extreme drought and flood events has risen significantly in recent years. Many studies confer that climate change may cause more intensive and extreme events. Simulating the impact of climate change often requires weather data as inputs to assessment models. Stochastic weather generators have been developed to produce weather data with the same temporal resolution based on the outputs of GCMs. Reservoir simulation normally uses operational rules in daily and hourly time steps for water supply and flood reduction, respectively. Simulating consecutive drought and flood events simultaneously requires a weather generator to produce different temporal resolution data. This work develops a continuous weather generator to generate daily and hourly precipitation data for regular wet days and severe storms, respectively. Daily rainfall data is generated for regular wet days using Exponential distribution or Weibull distribution, while the total rainfall data for severe storms is generated using the Pearson type III or Log Pearson type III distribution. Moreover, hourly rainfall is determined based on generated hyetographs. Simulation results indicate that the proposed continuous weather generator can generate daily and hourly rainfall reasonably. The proposed weather generator is thus highly promising for use in evaluating how climate change impacts reservoir operations that are significantly influenced by more frequent and intensive consecutive drought and flood events.

  5. Regional frequency analysis of observed sub-daily rainfall maxima over eastern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Hemin; Wang, Guojie; Li, Xiucang; Chen, Jing; Su, Buda; Jiang, Tong

    2017-02-01

    Based on hourly rainfall observational data from 442 stations during 1960-2014, a regional frequency analysis of the annual maxima (AM) sub-daily rainfall series (1-, 2-, 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24-h rainfall, using a moving window approach) for eastern China was conducted. Eastern China was divided into 13 homogeneous regions: Northeast (NE1, NE2), Central (C), Central North (CN1, CN2), Central East (CE1, CE2, CE3), Southeast (SE1, SE2, SE3, SE4), and Southwest (SW). The generalized extreme value performed best for the AM series in regions NE, C, CN2, CE1, CE2, SE2, and SW, and the generalized logistic distribution was appropriate in the other regions. Maximum return levels were in the SE4 region, with value ranges of 80-270 mm (1-h to 24-h rainfall) and 108-390 mm (1-h to 24-h rainfall) for 20- and 100 yr, respectively. Minimum return levels were in the CN1 and NE1 regions, with values of 37-104 mm and 53-140 mm for 20 and 100 yr, respectively. Comparing return levels using the optimal and commonly used Pearson-III distribution, the mean return-level differences in eastern China for 1-24-h rainfall varied from -3-4 mm to -23-11 mm (-10%-10%) for 20-yr events, reaching -6-26 mm (-10%-30%) and -10-133 mm (-10%-90%) for 100-yr events. In view of the large differences in estimated return levels, more attention should be given to frequency analysis of sub-daily rainfall over China, for improved water management and disaster reduction.

  6. Extreme Rainfall Events Over Southern Africa: Assessment of a Climate Model to Reproduce Daily Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

    2007-12-01

    It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of a state-of-the-art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. Once the model's ability to reproduce extremes has been assessed, idealised regions of SST anomalies are used to force the model, with the overall aim of investigating the ways in which SST anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. In this paper, results from sensitivity testing of the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model's domain size are firstly presented. Then simulations of current climate from the model, operating in both regional and global mode, are compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Thirdly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes will be assessed, again by a comparison with extremes from the MIRA dataset. Finally, the results from the idealised SST experiments are briefly presented, suggesting associations between rainfall extremes and both local and remote SST anomalies.

  7. Using long-term daily satellite based rainfall data (1983-2015) to analyze spatio-temporal changes in the sahelian rainfall regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wenmin; Brandt, Martin; Guichard, Francoise; Tian, Qingjiu; Fensholt, Rasmus

    2017-07-01

    The sahelian rainfall regime is characterized by a strong spatial as well as intra- and inter-annual variability. The satellite based African Rainfall Climatology Version 2 (ARC2) daily gridded rainfall estimates with a 0.1° × 0.1° spatial resolution provides the possibility for in-depth studies of seasonal changes over a 33-year period (1983-2015). Here we analyze rainfall regime variables that require daily observations: onset, cessation, and length of the wet season; seasonal rainfall amount; number of rainy days; intensity and frequency of rainfall events; number, length, and cumulative duration of dry spells. Rain gauge stations and MSWEP (Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation) data were used to evaluate the agreement of rainfall variables in both space and time, and trends were analyzed. Overall, ARC2 rainfall variables reliably show the spatio-temporal dynamics of seasonal rainfall over 33 years when compared to gauge and MSWEP data. However, a higher frequency of low rainfall events (spell characteristics). Most rainfall variables (both ARC2 and gauge data) show negative anomalies (except for onset of rainy season) from 1983 until the end of the 1990s, from which anomalies become mostly positive and inter-annual variability is higher. ARC2 data show a strong increase in seasonal rainfall, wet season length (caused by both earlier onset and a late end), number of rainy days, and high rainfall events (>20 mm day-1) for the western/central Sahel over the period of analysis, whereas the opposite trend characterizes the eastern part of the Sahel.

  8. Structural break or long memory: an empirical survey on daily rainfall data sets across Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    F. Yusof; Kane, I. L.; Yusop, Z.

    2013-01-01

    A short memory process that encounters occasional structural breaks in mean can show a slower rate of decay in the autocorrelation function and other properties of fractional integrated I (d) processes. In this paper we employed a procedure for estimating the fractional differencing parameter in semiparametric contexts proposed by Geweke and Porter-Hudak (1983) to analyse nine daily rainfall data sets across Malaysia. The results indicate that all the data sets exhibit long ...

  9. Short memory or long memory: an empirical survey of daily rainfall data

    OpenAIRE

    F. Yusof; Kane, I. L.

    2012-01-01

    A short memory process that encounters occasional structural breaks in mean can show a slower rate of decay in the autocorrelation function and other properties of fractional integrated I (d) processes. In this paper we employed a procedure for estimating the fractional differencing parameter in semi parametric contexts proposed by Geweke and Porter-Hudak to analyze nine daily rainfall data sets across Malaysia. The results indicate that all the data sets exhibit lon...

  10. Rainfall variability and extremes over southern Africa: Assessment of a climate model to reproduce daily extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, C. J. R.; Kniveton, D. R.; Layberry, R.

    2009-04-01

    It is increasingly accepted that that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of ability of a state of the art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. The ability of a climate model to simulate current climate provides some indication of how much confidence can be applied to its future predictions. In this paper, simulations of current climate from the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model, in both regional and global mode, are firstly compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. This concentrates primarily on the ability of the model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall variability over southern Africa. Secondly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes will

  11. Post-processing GCM daily rainfall and temperature forecasts for applications in water management and agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schepen, Andrew; Wang, Qj; Everingham, Yvette; Zhao, Tongtiegang

    2017-04-01

    Ensemble time series forecasts of rainfall and temperature up to six months ahead are sought for applications in water management and agricultural production. Raw GCM forecasts are generally not suitable for direct use in hydrological models or agricultural production simulators and must be post-processed first, to ensure they are reliable, as skilful as possible, and have realistic temporal patterns. In this study, we test two post-processing approaches to produce daily forecasts for cropping regions and water supply catchments in Australia. In the first approach, we apply the calibration, bridging and merging (CBaM) method to produce statistically reliable monthly forecasts based on GCM outputs of rainfall, temperature and sea surface temperatures. We then disaggregate the monthly forecasts to obtain realistic daily time series forecasts that can be used as inputs to crop and hydrological models. In the second approach, we develop a method for directly post-processing daily GCM forecasts using a Bayesian joint probability (BJP) model. We demonstrate and evaluate the two approaches through a case study for the Tully sugar region in north-eastern Australia. The daily post-processed forecasts will benefit applications in streamflow forecasting and crop yield forecasting.

  12. Comparing flow duration curve and rainfall-runoff modelling for predicting daily runoff in ungauged catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yongqiang; Vaze, Jai; Chiew, Francis H. S.; Li, Ming

    2015-06-01

    Predicting daily runoff time series in ungauged catchments is both important and challenging. For the last few decades, the rainfall-runoff (RR) modelling approach has been the method of choice. There have been very few studies reported in literature which attempt to use flow duration curve (FDC) to predict daily runoff time series. This study comprehensively compares the two approaches using an extensive dataset (228 catchments) for a large region of south-eastern Australia and provides guidelines for choosing the suitable method. For each approach we used the nearest neighbour method and two weightings - a 5-donor simple mathematical average (SA) and a 5-donor inverse-distance weighting (5-IDW) - to predict daily runoff time series. The results show that 5-IDW was noticeably better than a single donor to predict daily runoff time series, especially for the FDC approach. The RR modelling approach calibrated against daily runoff outperformed the FDC approach for predicting high flows. The FDC approach was better at predicting medium to low flows in traditional calibration against the Nash-Sutcliffe-Efficiency or Root Mean Square Error, but when calibrated against a low flow objective function, both the FDC and rainfall-runoff models performed equally well in simulating the low flows. These results indicate that both methods can be further improved to simulate daily hydrographs describing the range of flow metrics in ungauged catchments. Further studies should be carried out for improving the accuracy of predicted FDC in ungauged catchments, including improving the FDC model structure and parameter fitting.

  13. Spatial distribution of the daily rainfall concentration index in Argentina: comparison with other countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llano, María Paula

    2017-08-01

    The precipitation is a meteorological variable studied in Argentina mainly in annual, seasonal and monthly scales. Its variability is a significant climate element and also a critical socioeconomic factor. This study aims to contribute to the knowledge of daily rainfall in Argentina. Daily records of precipitation for 66 stations provided by the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional are used (period 1991-2014). The spatial distribution of the annual precipitation presents an east-west gradient in the north of the country. In monthly scale, there are different precipitation distributions such as a double maximum in the centre-east zone or a single maximum in the northwest in summer time and in the southern Andes range during the winter. To carry out the study, the concentration index (CI) of daily precipitation with a resolution of 1 mm is used. Precipitation in Argentina, given its vast territory, presents a great variability with a wide range of rainfall regimes; CI values are found between 0.54 and 0.68. These values are categorized as high (greater than 0.61) and low (less than 0.58). The north of the country and the Atlantic coast show the highest CI values. The lower values are present in the Andes range and in the south of the country. The results are compared with other studies in the world.

  14. Downscaling site rainfall from daily to 11.25-minute resolution: event, diurnal, seasonal and decadal controls on downscaling parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    McIntyre, Neil; Shi, Shirley; Onof, Christian

    2016-04-01

    Downscaling site rainfall from daily to sub-daily resolution is often approached using the multiplicative discrete random cascade (MDRC) class of models, with mixed success. Questions in any application - for MDRCs or indeed other classes of downscaling model - is to what extent and in what way are model parameters functions of rainfall event type and/or large scale climate controls for example those linked to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). These questions underlie the applicability of downscaling models for analysing rainfall and hydrological extremes, in particular for synthesising long-term historical or future sub-daily extremes conditional on historic or projected daily data. Coastal Queensland, Australia, is subject to combinations of multiple weather systems, including tropical cyclones, blocking systems, convective storms, frontal systems and ENSO influences. Using 100 years of fine resolution data from two gauges in central Brisbane, microcanonical MDRC models are fitted to data from 1 day to 11.25 minutes in seven cascade levels, each level dividing the time interval and its rainfall volume into two sub-intervals. Each cascade level involves estimating: the probabilities that all the rainfall observed in a time interval is concentrated in only the first of the two sub-intervals and that all the rainfall observed in a time interval is concentrated in only the second of the two sub-intervals; and also two beta distribution parameters that define the probability of a given division of the rainfall into both sub-intervals. These parameters are found to vary systematically with time of day, rainfall volume, event temporal structure, month of year, and ENSO anomaly. Reasonable downscaling performance is achieved (in terms of replicating extreme values of 11.25 minute rainfall given the observed daily data) by including the parameter dependence on the rainfall volume and event structure, although particular applications may justify development of more

  15. Spatial patterns in the oxygen isotope composition of daily rainfall in the British Isles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tyler, Jonathan J.; Jones, Matthew; Arrowsmith, Carol; Allott, Tim; Leng, Melanie J.

    2016-09-01

    Understanding the modern day relationship between climate and the oxygen isotopic composition of precipitation (δ18OP) is crucial for obtaining rigorous palaeoclimate reconstructions from a variety of archives. To date, the majority of empirical studies into the meteorological controls over δ18OP rely upon daily, event scale, or monthly time series from individual locations, resulting in uncertainties concerning the representativeness of statistical models and the mechanisms behind those relationships. Here, we take an alternative approach by analysing daily patterns in δ18OP from multiple stations across the British Isles ( n = 10-70 stations). We use these data to examine the spatial and seasonal heterogeneity of regression statistics between δ18OP and common predictors (temperature, precipitation amount and the North Atlantic Oscillation index; NAO). Temperature and NAO are poor predictors of daily δ18OP in the British Isles, exhibiting weak and/or inconsistent effects both spatially and between seasons. By contrast δ18OP and rainfall amount consistently correlate at most locations, and for all months analysed, with spatial and temporal variability in the regression coefficients. The maps also allow comparison with daily synoptic weather types, and suggest characteristic δ18OP patterns, particularly associated with Cylonic Lamb Weather Types. Mapping daily δ18OP across the British Isles therefore provides a more coherent picture of the patterns in δ18OP, which will ultimately lead to a better understanding of the climatic controls. These observations are another step forward towards developing a more detailed, mechanistic framework for interpreting stable isotopes in rainfall as a palaeoclimate and hydrological tracer.

  16. Sub-Daily Runoff Simulations with Parameters Inferred at the Daily Time Scale: Impacts of the temporal distribution of rainfall in parameter inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds Puga, Jose Eduardo; Halldin, Sven; Xu, Chong-Yu; Seibert, Jan

    2016-04-01

    Flood forecasting at sub-daily time scales are commonly required in regions where sub-daily observational data are not available. This has led to approaches to estimate model parameters at sub-daily time scales from data with a lower time resolution. Reynolds et al. (2015) show that parameters inferred at one time scale (e.g., daily) may be used directly for runoff simulations at other time scales (e.g., 1 h) when the modelling time step is the same and sufficiently small during calibration and simulation periods. Their approach produced parameter distributions at daily and sub-daily time scales that were similar and relatively constant across the time scales. The transfer of parameter values across time scales resulted in small model-performance decrease as opposed to when the parameter sets inferred at their respective time scale were used. This decrease in performance may be attributed to the degree of information lost, in terms of the physical processes occurring at short time scales, when the rainfall-runoff data used during the parameter-inference phase become coarser. It is not yet fully understood how the aggregation (or disaggregation) of the rainfall-runoff data affects parameter inference. In this study we analyse the impacts of the temporal distribution of rainfall for inferring model parameters at a coarse time scale and their effects in model performance when they are used at finer time scales, where data may not be available for calibration. The motivation is to improve runoff predictions and model performance at sub-daily time scales when parameters inferred at the daily scale are used for simulating at these scales. First, we calibrated the HBV-light conceptual hydrological model at the daily scale, but modelled discharge internally in 1-h time steps using 3 disaggregation procedures of the rainfall data. This was done in an attempt to maximise the information content of the input data used for calibration at the daily scale. One disaggregation

  17. Incorporating Satellite Observations of `No Rain' in an Australian Daily Rainfall Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebert, Elizabeth E.; Weymouth, Gary T.

    1999-01-01

    Geostationary satellite observations can be used to distinguish potential rain-bearing clouds from nonraining areas, thereby providing surrogate observations of `no rain' over large areas. The advantages of including such observations are the provision of data in regions void of conventional rain gauges or radars, as well as the improved delineation of raining from nonraining areas in gridded rainfall analyses.This paper describes a threshold algorithm for delineating nonraining areas using the difference between the daily minimum infrared brightness temperature and the climatological minimum surface temperature. Using a fixed difference threshold of 13 K, the accuracy of `no rain' detection (defined as the percentage of no-rain diagnoses that was correct) was 98%. The average spatial coverage was 45%, capturing about half of the observed space-time frequency of no rain over Australia. By delineating cool, moderate, and warm threshold areas, the average spatial coverage was increased to 54% while maintaining the same level of accuracy.The satellite no-rain observations were sampled to a density consistent with the existing gauge network, then added to the real-time gauge observations and analyzed using the Bureau of Meteorology's operational three-pass Barnes objective rainfall analysis scheme. When verified against independent surface rainfall observations, the mean bias in the satellite-augmented analyses was roughly half of bias in the gauge-only analyses. The most noticeable impact of the additional satellite observations was a 66% reduction in the size of the data-void regions.

  18. Daily rainfall statistics of TRMM and CMORPH: A case for trans-boundary Gandak River basin

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Brijesh Kumar; Kanhu Charan Patra; Venkat Lakshmi

    2016-07-01

    Satellite precipitation products offer an opportunity to evaluate extreme events (flood and drought)for areas where rainfall data are not available or rain gauge stations are sparse. In this study, dailyprecipitation amount and frequency of TRMM 3B42V.7 and CMORPH products have been validatedagainst daily rain gauge precipitation for the monsoon months (June–September or JJAS) from 2005–2010 in the trans-boundary Gandak River basin. The analysis shows that the both TRMM and CMORPHcan detect rain and no-rain events, but they fail to capture the intensity of rainfall.The detection of precipitation amount is strongly dependent on the topography. In the plains areas,TRMM product is capable of capturing high-intensity rain events but in the hilly regions, it underestimatesthe amount of high-intensity rain events. On the other hand, CMORPH entirely fails to capturethe high-intensity rain events but does well with low-intensity rain events in both hilly regions as well asthe plain region. The continuous variable verification method shows better agreement of TRMM rainfallproducts with rain gauge data. TRMM fares better in the prediction of probability of occurrenceof high-intensity rainfall events, but it underestimates intensity at high altitudes. This implies thatTRMM precipitation estimates can be used for flood-related studies only after bias adjustment for thetopography.

  19. Hydrological daily rainfall-runoff simulation with BTOPMC model and comparison with Xin'anjiang model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Hong-jun BAO; Li-li WANG; Zhi-jia LI; Lin-na ZHAO; Guo-ping ZHANG

    2010-01-01

    A grid-based distributed hydrological model, the Block-wise use of TOPMODEL (BTOPMC), which was developed from the original TOPMODEL, was used for hydrological daily rainfall-runoff simulation. In the BTOPMC model, the runoff is explicitly calculated on a cell-by-cell basis, and the Muskingum-Cunge flow concentration method is used. In order to test the model's applicability, the BTOPMC model and the Xin'anjiang model were applied to the simulation of a humid watershed and a semi-humid to semi-arid watershed in China. The model parameters were optimized with the Shuffle Complex Evolution (SCE-UA) method. Results show that both models can effectively simulate the daily hydrograph in humid watersheds, but that the BTOPMC model performs poorly in semi-humid to semi-arid watersheds. The excess-infiltration mechanism should be incorporated into the BTOPMC model to broaden the model's applicability.

  20. A Bivariate Mixed Distribution with a Heavy-tailed Component and its Application to Single-site Daily Rainfall Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Chao ..; Singh, Vijay P.; Mishra, Ashok K.

    2013-02-06

    This paper presents an improved brivariate mixed distribution, which is capable of modeling the dependence of daily rainfall from two distinct sources (e.g., rainfall from two stations, two consecutive days, or two instruments such as satellite and rain gauge). The distribution couples an existing framework for building a bivariate mixed distribution, the theory of copulae and a hybrid marginal distribution. Contributions of the improved distribution are twofold. One is the appropriate selection of the bivariate dependence structure from a wider admissible choice (10 candidate copula families). The other is the introduction of a marginal distribution capable of better representing low to moderate values as well as extremes of daily rainfall. Among several applications of the improved distribution, particularly presented here is its utility for single-site daily rainfall simulation. Rather than simulating rainfall occurrences and amounts separately, the developed generator unifies the two processes by generalizing daily rainfall as a Markov process with autocorrelation described by the improved bivariate mixed distribution. The generator is first tested on a sample station in Texas. Results reveal that the simulated and observed sequences are in good agreement with respect to essential characteristics. Then, extensive simulation experiments are carried out to compare the developed generator with three other alternative models: the conventional two-state Markov chain generator, the transition probability matrix model and the semi-parametric Markov chain model with kernel density estimation for rainfall amounts. Analyses establish that overall the developed generator is capable of reproducing characteristics of historical extreme rainfall events and is apt at extrapolating rare values beyond the upper range of available observed data. Moreover, it automatically captures the persistence of rainfall amounts on consecutive wet days in a relatively natural and easy way

  1. Bayesian objective classification of extreme UK daily rainfall for flood risk applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Little

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available In this study we describe an objective classification scheme for extreme UK daily precipitation to be used in flood risk analysis applications. We create a simplified representation of the spatial layout of extreme events based on a new digital archive of UK rainfall. This simplification allows a Bayesian clustering algorithm to compress these representations down to eight prototypical patterns of extreme falls. These patterns are then verified against a five-class, manual, subjective typing scheme, produced independently using known meteorological mechanisms, isohyetal maps and additional descriptive text from the archive. Compared against the manual scheme, the new objective scheme can reproduce the known meteorological conditions, both in terms of spatial layout and seasonal timing, and is shown to be of hydrological relevance when matched to several notable flooding events in the past century. Furthermore, it is computationally simple and straightforward to apply in classifying future extreme rainfall events. We discuss the practical use of this new typing scheme in flood simulations and climate change applications.

  2. Spatial analysis of trend in extreme daily rainfall in southern France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanchet, Juliette; Molinié, Gilles; Touati, Julien

    2016-04-01

    This paper makes a regional evaluation of trend in yearly maxima of daily rainfall in southern France, both at point and spatial scales on a regular grid of 8 × 8 km2. In order to filter out the high variability of rainfall maxima, the current analysis is based on a non-stationary GEV modeling in which the location parameter is allowed to vary with time. Three non-stationary models are considered for each series of maxima by constraining the location parameter to vary either linearly, linearly after a given date or linearly up to a final date. Statistical criteria are used to compare these models and select the best starting or final point of putative trends. The analysis shows that, at regional scale, the best distribution of maxima involves a linear trend starting in year 1985 and that this trend is significant in half the region, including most of the mountain ranges and part of the Rhône valley. Increases in yearly maxima are considerable since they reach up more than 60 mm/day in 20 years, which is more than 40 % of the average maximum in this area.

  3. Minimizing uncertainty of daily rainfall interpolation over large catchments through realistic sampling of anisotropic correlogram parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gyasi-Agyei, Yeboah

    2016-04-01

    It has been established that daily rainfall gauged network density is not adequate for the level of hydrological modelling required of large catchments involving pollutant and sediment transport, such as the catchments draining the coastal regions of Queensland, Australia, to the sensitive Great Barrier Reef. This paper seeks to establish a link between the spatial structure of radar and gauge rainfall for improved interpolation of the limited gauged data over a grid or functional units of catchments in regions with or without radar records. The study area is within Mt. Stapylton weather radar station range, a 128 km square region for calibration and validation, and the Brisbane river catchment for validation only. Two time periods (2000-01-01 to 2008-12-31 and 2009-01-01 to 2015-06-30) were considered, the later period for calibration when radar records were available and both time periods for validation without regard to radar information. Anisotropic correlograms of both the gauged and radar data were developed and used to establish the linkage required for areas without radar records. The maximum daily temperature significantly influenced the distributional parameters of the linkage. While the gauged, radar and sampled correlogram parameters reproduced the mean estimates similarly using leave-one-out cross-validation of Ordinary Kriging, the gauged parameters overestimated the standard deviation (SD) which reflects uncertainty by over 91% of cases compared with the radar or the sampled parameter sets. However, the distribution of the SD generated by the radar and the sampled correlogram parameters could not be distinguished, with a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test p-value of 0.52. For the validation case with the catchment, the percentage overestimation of SD by the gauged parameter sets decreased to 81.2% and 87.1% for the earlier and later time periods, respectively. It is observed that the extreme wet days' parameters and statistics were fairly widely distributed

  4. Analysis of Temporal and Spatial Distribution Patterns of Rainfall in Wuzhou in Recent 30 Years%梧州市近30年降雨量时空变化分布分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    朱颖洁

    2016-01-01

    The interpolation effect of Kriging,IDW,Spline and Trend method is analyzed,and the suitable ones have been chosen for the analysis of the rainfall in Wuzhou,and the distribution characteristics of time and space change of seasonal and annual rainfall in wuzhou are studied.Results show that:Kriging,IDW and Spline method are good for spatial interpolation for seasonal and annual rain-fall.rainfall decreasesfrom north to south in spring;rainfall decreases from northwest to southeast in summer;rainfall decreases from south,northwest to central in autumn;rainfall decreases from north and south to central and eastern in winter;annual rainfall decreases from north and south to west,southeast.most of Wuzhou rainfall increasesin spring;rainfall increasesin Wuzhou in summer;rainfall in-creasesin most of Wuzhou in autumn;rainfall increases in most of Wuzhou in winter;annual rainfall increases in most of Wuzhou.rain-fallrelatively decreases in the 80s of the 20th century;rainfall in the 90s of the 20th century is more than that in the 80s;rainfall in the 10s of the 21st century is less than that in the 90s of the 20st century.%分析Kriging、IDW、Spline和Trend法的插值效果,选出适合梧州市降雨量的空间插值方法,分析梧州市季年降雨量的时空变化分布特征。结果表明Kriging、IDW和Spline法在季年降雨量空间插值中的应用效果较好;春季降雨量分布自北部向南部递减,夏季降雨量分布自西北部向东南部和北部递减,秋季降雨量分布自南部、西北部向中部递减,冬季降雨量分布自北部与南部向中部和东部递减,年降雨量分布自北部与南部向西部和东南部递减。梧州市大部地区四季和年降雨量呈增加趋势;梧州市20世纪80年代降雨总体相对较少,90年代降雨较80年代增多,21世纪前10年降雨较90年代有所减少。

  5. Short memory or long memory: an empirical survey of daily rainfall data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yusof, F.; Kane, I. L.

    2012-10-01

    A short memory process that encounters occasional structural breaks in mean can show a slower rate of decay in the autocorrelation function and other properties of fractional integrated I (d) processes. In this paper we employed a procedure for estimating the fractional differencing parameter in semi parametric contexts proposed by Geweke and Porter-Hudak to analyze nine daily rainfall data sets across Malaysia. The results indicate that all the data sets exhibit long memory. Furthermore, an empirical fluctuation process using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) based cumulative sum (CUSUM) test with F-statistic for the break date were applied, break dates were detected in all data sets. The data sets were partitioned according to their respective break date and further test for long memory was applied for all subseries. Results show that all subseries follows the same pattern with the original series. The estimate of the fractional parameters d1 and d2 on the subseries obtained by splitting the original series at the break-date, confirms that there is a long memory in the DGP. Therefore this evidence shows a true long memory not due to structural break.

  6. Structural break or long memory: an empirical survey on daily rainfall data sets across Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yusof, F.; Kane, I. L.; Yusop, Z.

    2013-04-01

    A short memory process that encounters occasional structural breaks in mean can show a slower rate of decay in the autocorrelation function and other properties of fractional integrated I (d) processes. In this paper we employed a procedure for estimating the fractional differencing parameter in semiparametric contexts proposed by Geweke and Porter-Hudak (1983) to analyse nine daily rainfall data sets across Malaysia. The results indicate that all the data sets exhibit long memory. Furthermore, an empirical fluctuation process using the ordinary least square (OLS)-based cumulative sum (CUSUM) test for the break date was applied. Break dates were detected in all data sets. The data sets were partitioned according to their respective break date, and a further test for long memory was applied for all subseries. Results show that all subseries follows the same pattern as the original series. The estimate of the fractional parameters d1 and d2 on the subseries obtained by splitting the original series at the break date confirms that there is a long memory in the data generating process (DGP). Therefore this evidence shows a true long memory not due to structural break.

  7. Structural break or long memory: an empirical survey on daily rainfall data sets across Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Yusof

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available A short memory process that encounters occasional structural breaks in mean can show a slower rate of decay in the autocorrelation function and other properties of fractional integrated I (d processes. In this paper we employed a procedure for estimating the fractional differencing parameter in semiparametric contexts proposed by Geweke and Porter-Hudak (1983 to analyse nine daily rainfall data sets across Malaysia. The results indicate that all the data sets exhibit long memory. Furthermore, an empirical fluctuation process using the ordinary least square (OLS-based cumulative sum (CUSUM test for the break date was applied. Break dates were detected in all data sets. The data sets were partitioned according to their respective break date, and a further test for long memory was applied for all subseries. Results show that all subseries follows the same pattern as the original series. The estimate of the fractional parameters d1 and d2 on the subseries obtained by splitting the original series at the break date confirms that there is a long memory in the data generating process (DGP. Therefore this evidence shows a true long memory not due to structural break.

  8. Short memory or long memory: an empirical survey of daily rainfall data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Yusof

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available A short memory process that encounters occasional structural breaks in mean can show a slower rate of decay in the autocorrelation function and other properties of fractional integrated I (d processes. In this paper we employed a procedure for estimating the fractional differencing parameter in semi parametric contexts proposed by Geweke and Porter-Hudak to analyze nine daily rainfall data sets across Malaysia. The results indicate that all the data sets exhibit long memory. Furthermore, an empirical fluctuation process using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS based cumulative sum (CUSUM test with F-statistic for the break date were applied, break dates were detected in all data sets. The data sets were partitioned according to their respective break date and further test for long memory was applied for all subseries. Results show that all subseries follows the same pattern with the original series. The estimate of the fractional parameters d1 and d2 on the subseries obtained by splitting the original series at the break-date, confirms that there is a long memory in the DGP. Therefore this evidence shows a true long memory not due to structural break.

  9. Statistical analysis of yearly series of maximum daily rainfall in Spain. Analisis estadistico de las series anuales de maximas lluvias diarias en Espaa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferrer Polo, J.; Ardiles Lopez, K. L. (CEDEX, Ministerio de Obras Publicas, Transportes y Medio ambiente, Madrid (Spain))

    1994-01-01

    Work on the statistical modelling of maximum daily rainfalls is presented, with a view to estimating the quantiles for different return periods. An index flood approach has been adopted in which the local quantiles are a result of rescaling a regional law using the mean of each series of values, that is utilized as a local scale factor. The annual maximum series have been taken from 1.545 meteorological stations over a 30 year period, and these have been classified into 26 regions defined according to meteorological criteria, the homogeneity of wich has been checked by means of a statistical analysis of the coefficients of variation of the samples,using the. An estimation has been made of the parameters for the following four distribution models: Two Component Extreme Value (TCEV); General Extreme Value (GEV); Log-Pearson III (LP3); and SQRT-Exponential Type Distribution of Maximum. The analysis of the quantiles obtained reveals slight differences in the results thus detracting from the importance of the model selection. The last of the above-mentioned distribution has been finally chosen, on the basis of the following: it is defined with fewer parameters it is the only that was proposed specifically for the analysis of daily rainfall maximums; it yields more conservative results than the traditional Gumbel distribution for the high return periods; and it is capable of providing a good description of the main sampling statistics concerning the right-hand tail of the distribution, a fact that has been checked with Montecarlo's simulation techniques. The choice of a distribution model with only two parameters has led to the selection of the regional coefficient of variation as the only determining parameter for the regional quantiles. This has permitted the elimination of the quantiles discontinuity of the classical regional approach, thus smoothing the values of that coefficient by means of an isoline plan on a national scale.

  10. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Africa Rainfall Climatology Version 2.0 (ARC2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — As of 2012, a new gridded, daily 30 year precipitation estimation dataset centered over Africa at 0.1? spatial resolution has been developed. The Africa Rainfall...

  11. 近30年我国南方区域持续性暴雨过程的分类研究%Classification of Persistent Heavy Rainfall Events over Southern China during Recent 30 Years

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    汪汇洁; 孙建华; 卫捷; 赵思雄

    2014-01-01

    The persistent heavy rainfall events (PHREs) over southern China during 1981−2011 are classified by utilizing the daily precipitation data at 752 stations in China. PHREs in the Yangtze and Huaihe River Valley (YHRV) and PHREs in South China (SC) during 1981–2011 are selected on the basis of the following criteria: More than 10 grids [0.25°(latitude)×0.25°(longitude)] in the area with daily precipitation of more than 50 mm lasting more than five days and rainband coincidence degree greater than 20%. The statistics reveal that 31 PHREs in the YHRV were concentrated between mid-June to mid-July with an average duration of 8.29 days, whereas 34 non-typhoon PHREs in SC were concentrated in June and July with an average duration of 6.24 days. Moreover, the frequency and intensity of these two types changed in decadal growth. PHREs affected by the typhoon systems in the YHRV were concentrated between mid-July and early August. Those occurring in SC were concentrated from July to September, and their frequency and intensity have increased since 2000. Objective pattern correlation statistics are used to classify and discuss the non-typhoon PHREs in detail. PHREs in the YHRV are divided into three types: (A) main rainbelt to the south of the Yangtze River (YR), (B) main rainbelt to the north of the YR, (C) main rainbelt along the YR, and PHREs in SC are classified into two types: (E) main rain belt to the east of the Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau and (F) main rainbelt located over the Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau and Guangxi Province. On the basis of such classification, the mechanisms of PHREs will be discussed in future studies.%利用中国站点日降水资料对1981~2011年我国南方地区区域持续性暴雨(PHREs)进行了分类研究。按照区域内至少连续5 d 或5 d 以上有不小于10个格点[分辨率0.25º(纬度)×0.25º(经度)]出现大于等于50 mm降水且相邻两日雨带重合率不小于20%的标准,采用客观分析的方法

  12. Trends in rainfall erosivity in NE Spain at annual, seasonal and daily scales, 1955–2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Beguería

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall erosivity refers to the ability of precipitation to erode soil, and depends on characteristics such as its total volume, duration, and intensity and amount of energy released by raindrops. Despite the relevance of rainfall erosivity for soil degradation prevention, very few studies have addressed its spatial and temporal variability. In this study the time variation of rainfall erosivity in the Ebro Valley (NE Spain is assessed for the period 1955–2006. The results show a general decrease in annual and seasonal rainfall erosivity, which is explained by a decrease of very intense rainfall events whilst the frequency of moderate and low events increased. This trend is related to prevailing positive conditions of the main atmospheric teleconnection indices affecting the West Mediterranean, i.e. the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, the Mediterranean Oscillation (MO and the Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO.

  13. Is there a stratospheric pacemaker controlling the daily cycle of tropical rainfall?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakazaki, T.; Hamilton, K.; Zhang, C.; Wang, Y.

    2017-02-01

    Rainfall in the tropics exhibits a large, 12 h Sun-synchronous variation with coherent phase around the globe. A long-standing, but unproved, hypothesis for this phenomenon is excitation by the prominent 12 h atmospheric tide, which itself is significantly forced remotely by solar heating of the stratospheric ozone layer. We investigated the relative roles of large-scale tidal forcing and more local effects in accounting for the 12 h variation of tropical rainfall. A model of the atmosphere run with the diurnal cycle of solar heating artificially suppressed below the stratosphere still simulated a strong coherent 12 h rainfall variation ( 50% of control run), demonstrating that stratospherically forced atmospheric tide propagates downward to the troposphere and contributes to the organization of large-scale convection. The results have implications for theories of excitation of tropical atmospheric waves by moist convection, for the evaluation of climate models, and for explaining the recently discovered lunar tidal rainfall cycle.

  14. Evaluation of the best fit distribution for partial duration series of daily rainfall in Madinah, western Saudi Arabia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alahmadi, F.; Rahman, N. A.; Abdulrazzak, M.

    2014-09-01

    Rainfall frequency analysis is an essential tool for the design of water related infrastructure. It can be used to predict future flood magnitudes for a given magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events. This study analyses the application of rainfall partial duration series (PDS) in the vast growing urban Madinah city located in the western part of Saudi Arabia. Different statistical distributions were applied (i.e. Normal, Log Normal, Extreme Value type I, Generalized Extreme Value, Pearson Type III, Log Pearson Type III) and their distribution parameters were estimated using L-moments methods. Also, different selection criteria models are applied, e.g. Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Anderson-Darling Criterion (ADC). The analysis indicated the advantage of Generalized Extreme Value as the best fit statistical distribution for Madinah partial duration daily rainfall series. The outcome of such an evaluation can contribute toward better design criteria for flood management, especially flood protection measures.

  15. ANALYSIS OF THE STATISTICAL BEHAVIOUR OF DAILY MAXIMUM AND MONTHLY AVERAGE RAINFALL ALONG WITH RAINY DAYS VARIATION IN SYLHET, BANGLADESH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. M. J. HASAN

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Climate, one of the major controlling factors for well-being of the inhabitants in the world, has been changing in accordance with the natural forcing and manmade activities. Bangladesh, the most densely populated countries in the world is under threat due to climate change caused by excessive use or abuse of ecology and natural resources. This study checks the rainfall patterns and their associated changes in the north-eastern part of Bangladesh mainly Sylhet city through statistical analysis of daily rainfall data during the period of 1957 - 2006. It has been observed that a good correlation exists between the monthly mean and daily maximum rainfall. A linear regression analysis of the data is found to be significant for all the months. Some key statistical parameters like the mean values of Coefficient of Variability (CV, Relative Variability (RV and Percentage Inter-annual Variability (PIV have been studied and found to be at variance. Monthly, yearly and seasonal variation of rainy days also analysed to check for any significant changes.

  16. 30 Years of Archaeological Research

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    China’s archaeology has achieved remarkable outcomes during the 30 years after the carrying out of the reform and opening up policy. In theoretical research, various archaeological theories and genres have been introduced to China, which have influenced the development of the archaeology of China.

  17. Tropical rainfall regimes and their evolution on hourly to daily timescales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elsaesser, Gregory Scott

    2011-12-01

    Data from multiple satellite and in situ sources are used to investigate the dominant raining cloud populations in the tropics, with the purpose of documenting how diverse the raining cloud populations are at any given time over a scale similar in size to the grid-box (˜100 -- 200 km) of a present-day global climate model (GCM). For all locations in the tropics, three similar rainfall clusters (defined according to their ensemble of clouds) are found. Differences in mean-state rainfall (e.g. East versus West Pacific Ocean) are largely the result of similar rainfall clusters occurring at ocean basin-dependent relative frequencies of occurrence. Area-average rainfall rates are substantially different for each cluster. While each rainfall cluster is observed in all tropical basins, differing relative frequencies of occurrence imply that rainfall lifecycles (i.e. the time duration for transition from light to deep rainfall) vary as a function of basin. Among the processes influencing this transition, both mesoscale cold pools (inferred from QuikSCAT surface wind field retrievals) and convective inhibition (CIN, derived from radiosonde-observations) emerge as important parameters driving the transition from light rainfall to deep convection at the spatial scale of 100 -- 200 km. Associated with significant increases in rainfall are substantial decreases (40%) in convective available potential energy (CAPE). The temporal evolution of rainfall clusters is derived for different lifecycle stages of a composite Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) event. It is found that the rainfall cluster consisting of shallow (<3 km) and congestus raining clouds exhibits little temporal variation for all stages of the composite event, while non-raining scenes and deeper clouds are modulated as a function of time for all stages. Instead of a "transition" from shallow to deep convection, the results suggest an "addition" of deep convection at the expense of non-raining scenes. Unique to the

  18. Analysis of the temporal structure of the daily rainfall observed at ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In order to quantify the hydrological impacts of such variability, analysis of ... This study aims to characterize the Sudanese rainfall, using a raingauge data set collected on the upper Oueme River catchment (Benin) between 1999 and 2012. ... Cette étude vise à caractériser les précipitations soudanaises, en utilisant un ...

  19. Threshold detection for the generalized Pareto distribution: Review of representative methods and application to the NOAA NCDC daily rainfall database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langousis, Andreas; Mamalakis, Antonios; Puliga, Michelangelo; Deidda, Roberto

    2016-04-01

    In extreme excess modeling, one fits a generalized Pareto (GP) distribution to rainfall excesses above a properly selected threshold u. The latter is generally determined using various approaches, such as nonparametric methods that are intended to locate the changing point between extreme and nonextreme regions of the data, graphical methods where one studies the dependence of GP-related metrics on the threshold level u, and Goodness-of-Fit (GoF) metrics that, for a certain level of significance, locate the lowest threshold u that a GP distribution model is applicable. Here we review representative methods for GP threshold detection, discuss fundamental differences in their theoretical bases, and apply them to 1714 overcentennial daily rainfall records from the NOAA-NCDC database. We find that nonparametric methods are generally not reliable, while methods that are based on GP asymptotic properties lead to unrealistically high threshold and shape parameter estimates. The latter is justified by theoretical arguments, and it is especially the case in rainfall applications, where the shape parameter of the GP distribution is low; i.e., on the order of 0.1-0.2. Better performance is demonstrated by graphical methods and GoF metrics that rely on preasymptotic properties of the GP distribution. For daily rainfall, we find that GP threshold estimates range between 2 and 12 mm/d with a mean value of 6.5 mm/d, while the existence of quantization in the empirical records, as well as variations in their size, constitute the two most important factors that may significantly affect the accuracy of the obtained results.

  20. Modelling wet and dry spells for daily rainfall data series: an application to irrigation management in North-West Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferraris, Stefano; Agnese, Carmelo; Baiamonte, Giorgio; Cat Berro, Daniele; Mercalli, Luca

    2016-04-01

    Rainfall time variability is relevant for agricultural production. The daily time scale is often used in modelling crop and soil water balance. In this work a novel statistical analysis of wet and dry spells is presented, together with an application in an Italian area characterised by a relevant climate spatial variability, due to the presence of both high mountains (e.g.: Mont Blanc) and of the Mediterranean Sea. Statistical analysis of the sequences of rainy days, wet spells (WS), and that of no-rainy days, dry spells (DS), could be carried out separately (as widely applied in the past) or jointly, by introducing the inter-arrival time (IT), representing the time elapsed between two subsequent rainy days. Investigating on daily rainfall data series recorded in Sicily, Agnese et al. (2014) found that IT statistics can be described by the 3-parameter Lerch distribution; in turn, WS and DS distributions can be easily derived from IT distribution. Alternatively, the knowledge of both WS and DS distributions allow deriving IT distribution; in this case, WScan be described by the well-accepted geometric distribution, whereas the 2-parameter polylogarithm distribution can be used for DS, as recently suggested (Agnese et al., 2012) in place of the previously used 1-parameter logarithmic distribution (Chatfield, 1966). In this work, by using some daily rainfall data series recorded in Alpine and Sub-Alpine Areas, the equivalence between the above-mentioned approaches is showed. Furthermore, some interesting relationships between respective parameters are also illustrated. A simple soil water model is then used, using this rainfall statistical model, in order to evaluate the irrigation efficiency as a consequence of variations in the timing of surface irrigation, following the approach described in the paper of Canone et al. (2015). Agnese C., Baiamonte G., Cammalleri C., Cat Berro D., Ferraris S., Mercalli L. (2012). "Statistical analysis of inter-arrival times of

  1. Spatial interpolation of daily rainfall at catchment scale: a case study of the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments, Belgium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Ly

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Spatial interpolation of precipitation data is of great importance for hydrological modelling. Geostatistical methods (krigings are widely used in spatial interpolation from point measurement to continuous surfaces. However, the majority of existing geostatistical algorithms are available only for single-moment data. The first step in kriging computation is the semi-variogram modelling which usually uses only one variogram model for all-moment data. The objective of this paper was to develop different algorithms of spatial interpolation for daily rainfall on 1 km2 regular grids in the catchment area and to compare the results of geostatistical and deterministic approaches. In this study, we used daily rainfall data from 70 raingages in the hilly landscape of the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments in Belgium (2908 km2. This area lies between 35 and 693 m in elevation and consists of river networks, which are tributaries of the Meuse River. For geostatistical algorithms, Cressie's Approximate Weighted Least Squares method was used to fit seven semi-variogram models (logarithmic, power, exponential, Gaussian, rational quadratic, spherical and penta-spherical to daily sample semi-variogram on a daily basis. Seven selected raingages were used to compare the interpolation performance of these algorithms applied to many degenerated-raingage cases. Spatial interpolation with the geostatistical and Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW algorithms outperformed considerably interpolation with the Thiessen polygon that is commonly used in various hydrological models. Kriging with an External Drift (KED and Ordinary Cokriging (OCK presented the highest Root Mean Square Error (RMSE between the geostatistical and IDW methods. Ordinary Kriging (ORK and IDW were considered to be the best methods, as they provided smallest RMSE value for nearly all cases.

  2. Mean Excess Function as a method of identifying sub-exponential tails: Application to extreme daily rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nerantzaki, Sofia; Papalexiou, Simon Michael

    2017-04-01

    Identifying precisely the distribution tail of a geophysical variable is tough, or, even impossible. First, the tail is the part of the distribution for which we have the less empirical information available; second, a universally accepted definition of tail does not and cannot exist; and third, a tail may change over time due to long-term changes. Unfortunately, the tail is the most important part of the distribution as it dictates the estimates of exceedance probabilities or return periods. Fortunately, based on their tail behavior, probability distributions can be generally categorized into two major families, i.e., sub-exponentials (heavy-tailed) and hyper-exponentials (light-tailed). This study aims to update the Mean Excess Function (MEF), providing a useful tool in order to asses which type of tail better describes empirical data. The MEF is based on the mean value of a variable over a threshold and results in a zero slope regression line when applied for the Exponential distribution. Here, we construct slope confidence intervals for the Exponential distribution as functions of sample size. The validation of the method using Monte Carlo techniques on four theoretical distributions covering major tail cases (Pareto type II, Log-normal, Weibull and Gamma) revealed that it performs well especially for large samples. Finally, the method is used to investigate the behavior of daily rainfall extremes; thousands of rainfall records were examined, from all over the world and with sample size over 100 years, revealing that heavy-tailed distributions can describe more accurately rainfall extremes.

  3. A classification of the sea level pressure daily fields in southern South America: an application to daily rainfall in the Pampas region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penalba, Olga; Bettolli, Maria Laura

    2010-05-01

    The Pampas covers Argentina's most productive agricultural land, extending more than 1600 km in the heartland of the country. The impact of climate adversities on agricultural activities makes it necessary to determine to what extent climate spatial and temporal variability is responsible for crop yields and to generate elements to monitor, estimate impacts and design an alert system. Local atmospheric conditions depend, among other factors, on the major scale fields. Consequently, an objective classification of daily circulation fields in the South of South America is proposed using a long database. Daily rainfalls within the Argentine Humid Pampas are also investigated in connection to the weather type categories. Daily mean sea level pressure (SLP) fields corresponding to the NCEP_Reanalysis 2 data provided by the NCEP-NCAR were used as representative of atmospheric circulation at low levels which is of great importance in determining moisture advection in the region. The period of study was 1979-1999. The chosen domain extends from 15°S to 60°S and from 40°W to 90° W on a 2.5° latitude-longitude grid. This domain extends over the Pacific and the Atlantic Oceans and the Andes Mountains, all of which have a significant influence on the atmospheric circulation over South America. The analyzed seasons correspond to summer (December-January- February) and winter (June-July-August). Daily rainfall series located in the core region for growing different crops in the Argentine Humid Pampas were also used. These series were provided by the Argentine National Meteorological Service. Cluster analysis was performed coupled with Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to determine the atmospheric circulation patterns. PCA was used as a synthesis method and the cluster analysis was carried out in the subspace given by the leading unrotated principal components. The ‘k-means' partitioning method with Euclidean distance was used. The choice of the optimal number of clusters

  4. Comparison of Threshold Detection Methods for the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD): Application to the NOAA-NCDC Daily Rainfall Dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deidda, Roberto; Mamalakis, Antonis; Langousis, Andreas

    2015-04-01

    One of the most crucial issues in statistical hydrology is the estimation of extreme rainfall from data. To that extent, based on asymptotic arguments from Extreme Excess (EE) theory, several studies have focused on developing new, or improving existing methods to fit a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) model to rainfall excesses above a properly selected threshold u. The latter is generally determined using various approaches that can be grouped into three basic classes: a) non-parametric methods that locate the changing point between extreme and non-extreme regions of the data, b) graphical methods where one studies the dependence of the GPD parameters (or related metrics) to the threshold level u, and c) Goodness of Fit (GoF) metrics that, for a certain level of significance, locate the lowest threshold u that a GPD model is applicable. In this work, we review representative methods for GPD threshold detection, discuss fundamental differences in their theoretical bases, and apply them to daily rainfall records from the NOAA-NCDC open-access database (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/ghcn-daily/). We find that non-parametric methods that locate the changing point between extreme and non-extreme regions of the data are generally not reliable, while graphical methods and GoF metrics that rely on limiting arguments for the upper distribution tail lead to unrealistically high thresholds u. The latter is expected, since one checks the validity of the limiting arguments rather than the applicability of a GPD distribution model. Better performance is demonstrated by graphical methods and GoF metrics that rely on GPD properties. Finally, we discuss the effects of data quantization (common in hydrologic applications) on the estimated thresholds. Acknowledgments: The research project is implemented within the framework of the Action «Supporting Postdoctoral Researchers» of the Operational Program "Education and Lifelong Learning" (Action's Beneficiary: General

  5. Simulation of the variability and extremes of daily rainfall during the Indian summer monsoon for present and future times in a global time-slice experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    May, W. [Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, 2100 Copenhagen (Denmark)

    2004-03-01

    In this study the simulation of the variability and extremes of daily rainfall during the Indian summer monsoon for the present-day and the future climate is investigated. This is done on the basis of a global time-slice experiment (TSL) with the ECHAM4 atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) at a high horizontal resolution of T106. The first time-slice (period: 1970-1999) represents the present-day climate and the second (2060-2089) the future climate. Moreover, observational rainfall data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP, 1997-2002) and rainfall data from the ECMWF re-analysis (ERA, 1958-2001) are considered. ERA reveals serious deficiencies in its representation of the variability and extremes of daily rainfall during the Indian summer monsoon. These are mainly a severe overestimation of the frequency of wet days over the oceans and in the Himalayas, where also the rainfall intensity is overestimated. Further, ERA shows unrealistically heavy rainfall events over the tropical Indian Ocean. The ECHAM4 atmospheric GCM at a horizontal resolution of T106, on the other hand, simulates the variability and extremes of daily rainfall in good agreement with the observations. The only marked deficiencies are an underestimation of the rainfall intensity on the west coast of the Indian peninsula and in Bangladesh, an overestimation over the tropical Indian Ocean, due to an erroneous northwestward extension of the tropical convergence zone, and an overestimation of the frequency of wet days in Tibet. Further, heavy rainfall events are relatively strong in the centre of the Indian peninsula. For the future, TSL predicts large increases in the rainfall intensity over the tropical Indian Ocean as well as in northern Pakistan and northwest India, but decreases in southern Pakistan, in the centre of the Indian peninsula, and over the western part of the Bay of Bengal. The frequency of wet days is markedly increased over the tropical Indian Ocean and

  6. Chance-constrained overland flow modeling for improving conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations based on scaling representation of sub-daily rainfall variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Jing-Cheng; Huang, Guohe; Huang, Yuefei; Zhang, Hua; Li, Zhong; Chen, Qiuwen

    2015-08-15

    Lack of hydrologic process representation at the short time-scale would lead to inadequate simulations in distributed hydrological modeling. Especially for complex mountainous watersheds, surface runoff simulations are significantly affected by the overland flow generation, which is closely related to the rainfall characteristics at a sub-time step. In this paper, the sub-daily variability of rainfall intensity was considered using a probability distribution, and a chance-constrained overland flow modeling approach was proposed to capture the generation of overland flow within conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations. The integrated modeling procedures were further demonstrated through a watershed of China Three Gorges Reservoir area, leading to an improved SLURP-TGR hydrologic model based on SLURP. Combined with rainfall thresholds determined to distinguish various magnitudes of daily rainfall totals, three levels of significance were simultaneously employed to examine the hydrologic-response simulation. Results showed that SLURP-TGR could enhance the model performance, and the deviation of runoff simulations was effectively controlled. However, rainfall thresholds were so crucial for reflecting the scaling effect of rainfall intensity that optimal levels of significance and rainfall threshold were 0.05 and 10 mm, respectively. As for the Xiangxi River watershed, the main runoff contribution came from interflow of the fast store. Although slight differences of overland flow simulations between SLURP and SLURP-TGR were derived, SLURP-TGR was found to help improve the simulation of peak flows, and would improve the overall modeling efficiency through adjusting runoff component simulations. Consequently, the developed modeling approach favors efficient representation of hydrological processes and would be expected to have a potential for wide applications.

  7. Analysis of daily rainfall of the Sahelian weather-station Linguère (Senegal) - Trends and its impacts on the local population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strommer, Gabriel; Brandt, Martin; Diongue-Niang, Aida; Samimi, Cyrus

    2013-04-01

    In the 20th century, the West African Sahel has been a hot-spot of climatic changes. After severe drought-events in the 1970s and 1980s which were followed by a significant drop in annual precipitation, rainfall seems to increase again during the past years. Most studies are based on monthly or yearly datasets. However, many processes and events which are important for the local population depending on rainfall are not related to monthly or annual precipitation but are related to intra-annual, often daily scales. During this study, interviews with farmers and herders were conducted in the Senegalese Sahel. The results show, that wet months with unsuitably distributed precipitation can cause more harm than bringing benefits - depending on the phenological stage of the plants. Agricultural crops for example need rainfall breaks. On the other hand, natural herbaceous vegetation tolerates longer wet periods. So, a wet season can still hide dry spells that alter crops and vegetation development. Based on the results of these interviews, this study developed two indexes, one for local farmers and one for herders separately, showing if the year was favorable for them or not. The indexes integrate the length of rainy seasons, intensity and frequency of rainfall events, breaks between events and also the previous year. This way, each year is assigned to one of 5 classes. Using daily rainfall data of the Linguère weather-station (from the Senegal Meteorological Service, ANACIM), trends of the indexes from 1945 to 2002 are detected and compared to results of the interviews. Statistically relating the indexes to yearly and monthly data demonstrates, how much information can be gathered by those datasets. Furthermore, changes in intensity and frequency are related with yearly and monthly sums showing relations between daily data and annual sums. For example, a high correlation (r=0.73) between the amount of rain days (> 1 mm) and the annual rainfall is observed in Linguère.

  8. Geostatistical interpolation of daily rainfall at catchment scale: the use of several variogram models in the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments, Belgium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Ly

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Spatial interpolation of precipitation data is of great importance for hydrological modelling. Geostatistical methods (kriging are widely applied in spatial interpolation from point measurement to continuous surfaces. The first step in kriging computation is the semi-variogram modelling which usually used only one variogram model for all-moment data. The objective of this paper was to develop different algorithms of spatial interpolation for daily rainfall on 1 km2 regular grids in the catchment area and to compare the results of geostatistical and deterministic approaches. This study leaned on 30-yr daily rainfall data of 70 raingages in the hilly landscape of the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments in Belgium (2908 km2. This area lies between 35 and 693 m in elevation and consists of river networks, which are tributaries of the Meuse River. For geostatistical algorithms, seven semi-variogram models (logarithmic, power, exponential, Gaussian, rational quadratic, spherical and penta-spherical were fitted to daily sample semi-variogram on a daily basis. These seven variogram models were also adopted to avoid negative interpolated rainfall. The elevation, extracted from a digital elevation model, was incorporated into multivariate geostatistics. Seven validation raingages and cross validation were used to compare the interpolation performance of these algorithms applied to different densities of raingages. We found that between the seven variogram models used, the Gaussian model was the most frequently best fit. Using seven variogram models can avoid negative daily rainfall in ordinary kriging. The negative estimates of kriging were observed for convective more than stratiform rain. The performance of the different methods varied slightly according to the density of raingages, particularly between 8 and 70 raingages but it was much different for interpolation using 4 raingages. Spatial interpolation with the geostatistical and

  9. Evaluation of statistical and rainfall-runoff models for predicting historical daily streamflow time series in the Des Moines and Iowa River watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, William H.; Knight, Rodney R.; Eash, David A.; Kasey J. Hutchinson,; Linhart, S. Mike; Christiansen, Daniel E.; Archfield, Stacey A.; Over, Thomas M.; Kiang, Julie E.

    2015-08-24

    Daily records of streamflow are essential to understanding hydrologic systems and managing the interactions between human and natural systems. Many watersheds and locations lack streamgages to provide accurate and reliable records of daily streamflow. In such ungaged watersheds, statistical tools and rainfall-runoff models are used to estimate daily streamflow. Previous work compared 19 different techniques for predicting daily streamflow records in the southeastern United States. Here, five of the better-performing methods are compared in a different hydroclimatic region of the United States, in Iowa. The methods fall into three classes: (1) drainage-area ratio methods, (2) nonlinear spatial interpolations using flow duration curves, and (3) mechanistic rainfall-runoff models. The first two classes are each applied with nearest-neighbor and map-correlated index streamgages. Using a threefold validation and robust rank-based evaluation, the methods are assessed for overall goodness of fit of the hydrograph of daily streamflow, the ability to reproduce a daily, no-fail storage-yield curve, and the ability to reproduce key streamflow statistics. As in the Southeast study, a nonlinear spatial interpolation of daily streamflow using flow duration curves is found to be a method with the best predictive accuracy. Comparisons with previous work in Iowa show that the accuracy of mechanistic models with at-site calibration is substantially degraded in the ungaged framework.

  10. Recurrent daily rainfall patterns over South Africa and associated dynamics during the core of the austral summer

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Cretat, J

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available . Amongst them, one cluster looks most like the rainfall and circulation mean picture. Another one, representing 37% of the days, describes strong negative rainfall anomalies over South Africa resulting from a regional barotropic trough-ridge-trough wave...

  11. Investigating the impact of land-use land-cover change on Indian summer monsoon daily rainfall and temperature during 1951–2005 using a regional climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Halder

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Daily moderate rainfall events, that constitute a major portion of seasonal summer monsoon rainfall over central India, have decreased significantly during the period 1951 till 2005. Mean and extreme near surface daily temperature during the monsoon season have also increased by a maximum of 1–1.5 °C. Using simulations made with a high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM4 with prescribed vegetation cover of 1950 and 2005, it is demonstrated that part of the above observed changes in moderate rainfall events and temperature have been caused by land-use land-cover change (LULCC which is mostly anthropogenic. Model simulations show that the increase in seasonal mean and extreme temperature over central India coincides with the region of decreased (increased forest (crop cover. The results also show that land-use land-cover alone causes warming in the extremes of daily mean and maximum temperatures by maximum of 1–1.2 °C, that is comparable with the observed increasing trend in the extremes. Decrease (increase in forest (crop cover reduces the evapotranspiration over land and large-scale convective instability, apart from decreasing the moisture convergence. These factors act together not only in reducing the moderate rainfall events over central India but also the amount of rainfall in that category, significantly. This is the most interesting result of this study. Additionally, the model simulations are repeated by removing the warming trend in sea surface temperatures. As a result, there is enhanced warming at the surface and decrease in moderate rainfall events over central India. Results from the additional experiments corroborate our initial findings and confirm the contribution of land-use land-cover change on increase in daily mean and extreme temperature and decrease in moderate rainfall events. This study not only demonstrates the important implications of LULCC over India, but also shows the necessity for inclusion of projected

  12. Chance-constrained overland flow modeling for improving conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations based on scaling representation of sub-daily rainfall variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Han, Jing-Cheng [State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience & Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Huang, Guohe, E-mail: huang@iseis.org [Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Huang, Yuefei [State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience & Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Zhang, Hua [College of Science and Engineering, Texas A& M University — Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi, TX 78412-5797 (United States); Li, Zhong [Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Chen, Qiuwen [Center for Eco-Environmental Research, Nanjing Hydraulics Research Institute, Nanjing 210029 (China)

    2015-08-15

    Lack of hydrologic process representation at the short time-scale would lead to inadequate simulations in distributed hydrological modeling. Especially for complex mountainous watersheds, surface runoff simulations are significantly affected by the overland flow generation, which is closely related to the rainfall characteristics at a sub-time step. In this paper, the sub-daily variability of rainfall intensity was considered using a probability distribution, and a chance-constrained overland flow modeling approach was proposed to capture the generation of overland flow within conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations. The integrated modeling procedures were further demonstrated through a watershed of China Three Gorges Reservoir area, leading to an improved SLURP-TGR hydrologic model based on SLURP. Combined with rainfall thresholds determined to distinguish various magnitudes of daily rainfall totals, three levels of significance were simultaneously employed to examine the hydrologic-response simulation. Results showed that SLURP-TGR could enhance the model performance, and the deviation of runoff simulations was effectively controlled. However, rainfall thresholds were so crucial for reflecting the scaling effect of rainfall intensity that optimal levels of significance and rainfall threshold were 0.05 and 10 mm, respectively. As for the Xiangxi River watershed, the main runoff contribution came from interflow of the fast store. Although slight differences of overland flow simulations between SLURP and SLURP-TGR were derived, SLURP-TGR was found to help improve the simulation of peak flows, and would improve the overall modeling efficiency through adjusting runoff component simulations. Consequently, the developed modeling approach favors efficient representation of hydrological processes and would be expected to have a potential for wide applications. - Highlights: • We develop an improved hydrologic model considering the scaling effect of rainfall. • A

  13. An alternative approach to characterize time series data: Case study on Malaysian rainfall data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Radhakrishnan, P. [Faculty of Information Science and Technology, Multimedia University, Melaka 75450 (Malaysia)] e-mail: radha.krishnan@mmu.edu.my; Dinesh, S. [Faculty of Engineering and Technology, Multimedia University, Melaka 75450 (Malaysia)

    2006-01-01

    This paper focuses on the characterization of time series rainfall data to understand the behavior in the Malaysian rainfall data. An analysis of the rainfall behavior of different time periods is also conducted. The rainfall data is rounded. A bar with a width of 12 pixels is drawn for each day in the data. The length of the bars drawn is equal to the corresponding rainfall value. Each bar is separated by a space of 2 pixels. Bars for data from different year are stored in different rows. Morphological opening is performed on the barcode image obtained, using line kernels of increasing length. Connected component-labeling algorithm is implemented on the resulting images to identify the individual bar codes and to compute the number of bars remaining after the opening process. A daily rainfall record for the duration of 30 years, obtained from the Melaka Meteorological Station, is analyzed. The results provide characterization of behavior in daily rainfall data.

  14. Rainfall generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Ashish; Mehrotra, Raj

    This chapter presents an overview of methods for stochastic generation of rainfall at annual to subdaily time scales, at single- to multiple-point locations, and in a changing climatic regime. Stochastic rainfall generators are used to provide inputs for risk assessment of natural or engineering systems that can undergo failure under sustained (high or low) extremes. As a result, generation of rainfall has evolved to provide options that adequately represent such conditions, leading to sequences that exhibit low-frequency variability of a nature similar to the observed rainfall. The chapter consists of three key sections: the first two outlining approaches for rainfall generation using endogenous predictor variables and the third highlighting approaches for generation using exogenous predictors often simulated to represent future climatic conditions. The first section presents approaches for generation of annual and seasonal rainfall and daily rainfall, both at single-point locations and multiple sites, with an emphasis on alternatives that ensure appropriate representation of low-frequency variability in the generated rainfall sequences. The second section highlights advancements in the subdaily rainfall generation procedures including commonly used approaches for daily to subdaily rainfall generation. The final section (generation using exogenous predictors) presents a range of alternatives for stochastic downscaling of rainfall for climate change impact assessments of natural and engineering systems. We conclude the chapter by outlining some of the key challenges that remain to be addressed, especially in generation under climate change conditions, with an emphasis on the importance of incorporating uncertainty present in both measurements and models, in the rainfall sequences that are generated.

  15. Subseasonal to multidecadal variability of northeast monsoon daily rainfall over Peninsular Malaysia using a hidden Markov model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Wei Lun; Yusof, Fadhilah; Yusop, Zulkifli

    2017-07-01

    This study involves the modelling of a homogeneous hidden Markov model (HMM) on the northeast rainfall monsoon using 40 rainfall stations in Peninsular Malaysia for the period of 1975 to 2008. A six hidden states HMM was selected based on Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and every hidden state has distinct rainfall characteristics. Three of the states were found to correspond by wet conditions; while the remaining three states were found to correspond to dry conditions. The six hidden states were found to correspond with the associated atmospheric composites. The relationships between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Pacific Ocean are found regarding interannual variability. The wet (dry) states were found to be well correlated with a Niño 3.4 index which was used to characterize the intensity of an ENSO event. This model is able to assess the behaviour of the rainfall characteristics with the large scale atmospheric circulation; the monsoon rainfall is well correlated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in Peninsular Malaysia.

  16. Subseasonal to multidecadal variability of northeast monsoon daily rainfall over Peninsular Malaysia using a hidden Markov model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Wei Lun; Yusof, Fadhilah; Yusop, Zulkifli

    2016-04-01

    This study involves the modelling of a homogeneous hidden Markov model (HMM) on the northeast rainfall monsoon using 40 rainfall stations in Peninsular Malaysia for the period of 1975 to 2008. A six hidden states HMM was selected based on Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and every hidden state has distinct rainfall characteristics. Three of the states were found to correspond by wet conditions; while the remaining three states were found to correspond to dry conditions. The six hidden states were found to correspond with the associated atmospheric composites. The relationships between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Pacific Ocean are found regarding interannual variability. The wet (dry) states were found to be well correlated with a Niño 3.4 index which was used to characterize the intensity of an ENSO event. This model is able to assess the behaviour of the rainfall characteristics with the large scale atmospheric circulation; the monsoon rainfall is well correlated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in Peninsular Malaysia.

  17. Lessons from 30 Years of Flight Software

    Science.gov (United States)

    McComas, David C.

    2015-01-01

    This presentation takes a brief historical look at flight software over the past 30 years, extracts lessons learned and shows how many of the lessons learned are embodied in the Flight Software product line called the core Flight System (cFS). It also captures the lessons learned from developing and applying the cFS.

  18. Rainfall Analyses of Coonoor Hill Station of Nilgiris District for Landslide Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramani Sujatha, Evangelin; Suribabu, C. R.

    2017-07-01

    The most common triggering factor of landslides in a hill terrain is rainfall. Assessment of the extreme and antecedent rainfall events and its quantum is imperative to evaluate the temporal occurrence of landslides. It also plays a vital role in the choice of the preventive measures to be adopted. This study focuses on an in-depth rainfall analysis of Coonoor hill station. The analysis includes the study of monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall patterns for a period of 80 years, between 1935 and 2013. Further, one day maximum, 5 day and more antecedent rainfall and its amount is calculated for the years between 2007-2012, 2014 and 2015.The result of the study indicates an increase in the normal rainfall based on the mean of 30 years of data (for the recent decades) and erratic pattern of rainfall during pre-monsoon, post-monsoon south-west monsoon periods. A detailed analysis of daily rainfall for the selected period indicates that extreme highest daily rainfall of more than 300 mm above occurred after consecutive rainfall trigged massive landslides comparing highest rainfall amount around 100 to 180 mm rainfall events.

  19. McBride's operation for hallux valgus can be used in patients older than 30 years

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gebuhr, Peter Henrik; Soelberg, M; Larsen, T;

    1992-01-01

    . In patients older than 30 years there were significant reductions. In patients younger than 30 years, the reduction was not significant. The rate of problems with daily footwear was reduced from 36 of 46 feet to 13 of 38 feet. The authors noted few problems and a high rate of satisfied patients, despite...

  20. Adaptionism-30 years after Gould and Lewontin

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Rasmus

    2009-01-01

    Gould and Lewontin's 30-year-old critique of adaptionism fundamentally changed the discourse of evolutionary biology. However, with the influx of new ideas and scientific traditions from genomics into evolutionary biology, the old adaptionist controversies are being recycled in a new context......, it is still difficult to construct strong arguments in favor of adaptation. However, despite the difficulties in establishing scientific arguments in favor of specific historic evolutionary events, there is still much to learn about evolution from genomic data....

  1. Solid waste 30-year volume summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Valero, O.J.; Armacost, L.L.; DeForest, T.J.; Templeton, K.J.; Williams, N.C.

    1994-06-01

    A 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site is described in this report. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste that will require treatment, storage, and disposal at Hanford`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during the 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The data used to complete this document were collected from onsite and offsite waste generators who currently, or are planning to, ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site. An analysis of the data suggests that over 300,000 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed at Hanford`s SWOC over the next 30 years. An extensive effort was made this year to collect this information. The 1993 solid waste forecast was used as a starting point, which identified approximately 100,000 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste to be sent to the SWOC. After analyzing the forecast waste volume, it was determined that additional waste was expected from the tank waste remediation system (TWRS), onsite decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) activities, and onsite remedial action (RA) activities. Data presented in this report establish a starting point for solid waste management planning. It is recognized that forecast estimates will vary (typically increasing) as facility planning and missions continue to change and become better defined, but the information presented still provides useful insight into Hanford`s future solid waste management requirements.

  2. 30 Years of HIV/AIDS

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2011-06-02

    Dr. Kevin A. Fenton, Director of CDC's National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention, discusses the 30 year anniversary of the first reported cases of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, or AIDS. Dr. Fenton also reflects on the HIV/AIDS epidemic – past, present, and future.  Created: 6/2/2011 by National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention (NCHHSTP).   Date Released: 6/2/2011.

  3. Test anxiety inventory: 30 years later.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szafranski, Derek D; Barrera, Terri L; Norton, Peter J

    2012-11-01

    Research suggests that test anxiety is associated with a number of maladaptive factors. The majority of test anxiety research includes the Test Anxiety Inventory (TAI) as a primary outcome variable. However, the TAI was normed on college undergraduates in 1980. The academic landscape has altered in a variety of ways in the past 30 years, which may result in out-of-date norms. This study examined changes in TAI scores in college undergraduates (n =437) as well as convergent validity with measures of trait anxiety and academic performance. Results indicated increases in TAI scores for females while holding constant for males. Additionally, females and males displayed positive correlations between the TAI and state-trait anxiety inventory, while only females displayed a significant negative correlation between the TAI and grade point average. Data provide evidence of changes in TAI scores. As a result, researchers should be careful when drawing conclusions based on original TAI norms, especially in the case of female undergraduates.

  4. Gallstone ileus 30 years status postcholecystectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zens, Tiffany; Liebl, R Scott

    2010-12-01

    Gallstone ileus is an uncommon cause of small bowel obstruction which occurs in patients with chronic cholecystitis and gallstones who develop a cholecystoenteric fistula. Although gallstone ileus is relatively rare, it has a substantial mortality rate due in part to patient comorbidities and delays in treatment. We describe the case of a 94-year-old woman who presented with nausea, vomiting, mild abdominal tenderness, leukocytosis, and a 2.5-cm obstruction in her small bowel. Even though this patient underwent a total cholecystectomy 30 years prior, a 2.5-cm gallstone was surgically removed from her ileum. This case illustrates the importance of including gallstone ileus in the differential diagnosis for patients who present with small bowel obstruction even decades postcholecystectomy.

  5. Hydrological Response to ~30 years of Agricultural Surface Water Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giulia Sofia

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Amongst human practices, agricultural surface-water management systems represent some of the largest integrated engineering works that shaped floodplains during history, directly or indirectly affecting the landscape. As a result of changes in agricultural practices and land use, many drainage networks have changed producing a greater exposure to flooding with a broad range of impacts on society, also because of climate inputs coupling with the human drivers. This research focuses on three main questions: which kind of land use changes related to the agricultural practices have been observed in the most recent years (~30 years? How does the influence on the watershed response to land use and land cover changes depend on the rainfall event characteristics and soil conditions, and what is their related significance? The investigation presented in this work includes modelling the water infiltration due to the soil properties and analysing the distributed water storage offered by the agricultural drainage system in a study area in Veneto (north-eastern Italy. The results show that economic changes control the development of agro-industrial landscapes, with effects on the hydrological response. Key elements that can enhance or reduce differences are the antecedent soil conditions and the climate characteristics. Criticalities should be expected for intense and irregular rainfall events, and for events that recurrently happen. Agricultural areas might be perceived to be of low priority when it comes to public funding of flood protection, compared to the priority given to urban ones. These outcomes highlight the importance of understanding how agricultural practices can be the driver of or can be used to avoid, or at least mitigate, flooding. The proposed methods can be valuable tools in evaluating the costs and benefits of the management of water in agriculture to inform better policy decision-making.

  6. Rainfall Characterization In An Arid Area

    OpenAIRE

    Bazaraa, A. S.; Ahmed, Shamim

    1991-01-01

    The objective of this work is to characterize the rainfall in Doha which lies in an arid region. The rainfall data included daily rainfall depth since 1962 and the hyetographs of the individual storms since 1976. The rainfall is characterized by high variability and severe thunderstorms which are of limited geographical extent. Four probability distributions were used to fit the maximum rainfall in 24 hours and the annual rainfall depth. The extreme value distribution was found to have the be...

  7. McBride's operation for hallux valgus can be used in patients older than 30 years

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gebuhr, Peter Henrik; Soelberg, M; Larsen, T

    1992-01-01

    Over a 10-year period, 46 feet with hallux valgus in 36 patients were treated with the McBride procedure. The median age was 35 years. At follow-up of 2 to 11 years after operation, a reduction in the hallux valgus angles, the intermetatarsal angles and the width of the forefeet was found....... In patients older than 30 years there were significant reductions. In patients younger than 30 years, the reduction was not significant. The rate of problems with daily footwear was reduced from 36 of 46 feet to 13 of 38 feet. The authors noted few problems and a high rate of satisfied patients, despite...... the age. In 37 of 46 feet the overall result was found satisfactory by the patients. The authors find that McBride's operation can be used for hallux valgus, also in patients above 30 years, in spite of the generally accepted restriction to younger individuals....

  8. 30 years of finite-gap integration theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matveev, Vladimir B

    2008-03-28

    The method of finite-gap integration was created to solve the periodic KdV initial problem. Its development during last 30 years, combining the spectral theory of differential and difference operators with periodic coefficients, the algebraic geometry of compact Riemann surfaces and their Jacobians, the Riemann theta functions and inverse problems, had a strong impact on the evolution of modern mathematics and theoretical physics. This article explains some of the principal historical points in the creation of this method during the period 1973-1976, and briefly comments on its evolution during the last 30 years.

  9. Economists Evaluate China’s 30 Year Reform

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李明锋

    2008-01-01

    The Guanghua School of Management at Peking Universityorganized a new forum entitled "30 Years of China’s Reform:A Review and Outlook" several months ago,inviting many economists such as Cheng Siwei,Wu Jinglian,Li Yining,Mao Yushi,Zhang Weiying,Justin Lin,Fan Gang,Zhou Qiren,Qian Yingyi and Chen Zhiwu to conduct in-depth analysis and discussion on the issues of widespread concern about 30 Years of China’s Reform.

  10. Primary Care Psychologists in the Netherlands: 30 Years of Experience

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Derksen, J.J.L.

    2009-01-01

    The primary care psychologist (PCP) in the Netherlands has 30 years of experience. The PCP is a generalist who, in close cooperation with the family physician and other providers of primary health care, has a mindset and manner of working that is largely determined by the context in which the PCP

  11. UNCORRECTED TETRALOGY OF FALLOT IN A 30 - YEARS OLD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dihingia

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Tetralogy of Fallot is the most common form of cyanotic congenital heart disease. Survival after the age of 12 years without corrective surgery is rare. We present the case of a 30 year - old man with uncorrected tetralogy of Fallot.

  12. Primary Care Psychologists in the Netherlands: 30 Years of Experience

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Derksen, J.J.L.

    2009-01-01

    The primary care psychologist (PCP) in the Netherlands has 30 years of experience. The PCP is a generalist who, in close cooperation with the family physician and other providers of primary health care, has a mindset and manner of working that is largely determined by the context in which the PCP wo

  13. [The past 30 years of Chinese Journal of Biotechnology].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Ning

    2015-06-01

    This review addresses the association of "Chinese Journal of Biotechnology" and the development of biotechnology in China in the past 30 years. Topics include relevant awards and industrialization, development of the biotechnology discipline, and well know scientists in biotechnology, as well as perspectives on the journal.

  14. Application of the rainfall infiltration breakthrough (RIB) model for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Application of the rainfall infiltration breakthrough (RIB) model for groundwater ... Correlation analysis between rainfall and observed WLF data at daily scale and ... data are more realistic than those for daily data, when using long time series.

  15. MARKOV CHAIN MODEL FOR PROBABILITY OF DRY, WET DAYS AND STATISTICAL ANALISIS OF DAILY RAINFALL IN SOME CLIMATIC ZONE OF IRAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. SHAHRAKI

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Water scarcity is a major problem in arid and semi-arid areas. The scarcity of water is further stressed by the growing demand due to increase in population growth in developing countries. Climate change and its outcomes on precipitation and water resources is the other problem in these areas. Several models are widely used for modeling daily precipitation occurrence. In this study, Markov Chain Model has been extensively used to study spell distribution. For this purpose, a day period was considered as the optimum length of time. Given the assumption that the Markov chain model is the right model for daily precipitation occurrence, the choice of Markov model order was examined on a daily basis for 4 synoptic weather stations with different climates in Iran (Gorgan, Khorram Abad, Zahedan, Tabrizduring 1978-2009. Based on probability rules, events possibility of sequential dry and wet days, these data were analyzed by stochastic process and Markov Chain method. Then probability matrix was calculated by maximum likelihood method. The possibility continuing2-5days of dry and wet days were calculated. The results showed that the probability maximum of consecutive dry period and climatic probability of dry days has occurred in Zahedan. The probability of consecutive dry period has fluctuated from 73.3 to 100 percent. Climatic probability of occurrence of dry days would change in the range of 70.96 to 100 percent with the average probability of about 90.45 percent.

  16. Social resources and cognitive ageing across 30 years

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gow, Alan J.; Mortensen, Erik Lykke

    2016-01-01

    Background: to examine associations between social resources and cognitive ageing over 30 years. Methods: participants in the Glostrup 1914 Cohort, a year of birth sample, completed a standardarised battery of cognitive ability tests every 10 years from age 50 to 80, summarised as general cognitive...... ability. Participants also provided information concerning a range of social resources, including marital status and living arrangements from age 50, and from age 70, details regarding social support, social contact and loneliness. Results: across the follow-up, participants were less likely to be married...... together (and accounting for sex, education and social class), loneliness was associated with lower cognitive ability level and greater cognitive decline, while married individuals experienced less decline. Conclusions: in a relatively large cohort followed for up to 30 years, marital status and loneliness...

  17. Vertebrate Paleontology in Central America: 30 years of progress

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    Vertebrate paleontology began in Central America in 1858 with the first published records, but the last 30 years have seen remarkable advances. These advances range from new localities, to new taxa to new analyses of diverse data. Central American vertebrate fossils represent all of the major taxonomic groups of vertebrates—fishes, amphibians, reptiles (especially turtles), birds and mammals (mostly xenarthrans, carnivores and ungulates)—but coverage is very uneven, with many groups (especial...

  18. Transient Unexplained Shock in 30-year-old Trauma Patient

    OpenAIRE

    Rahmani, Farzad; Ebrahimi Bakhtavar, Hanieh; Shahsavari Nia, Kavous; Mohammadi, Neda

    2014-01-01

    Shock as an inadequate tissue perfusion is one of the frequent causes of death in trauma patients. In this context, there are various reasons for hemodynamic instability and shock including hypovolemic (hemorrhagic), obstructive (cardiac tamponade, tension pneumothorax), cardiogenic, neurogenic, and rarely septic. In the present report, a 30-year-old trauma patient with full clinical signs and symptoms of shock referred while had unknown origin; it was finally recognized as anaphylactic shock.

  19. Transient Unexplained Shock in 30-year-old Trauma Patient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmani, Farzad; Ebrahimi Bakhtavar, Hanieh; Shahsavari Nia, Kavous; Mohammadi, Neda

    2014-01-01

    Shock as an inadequate tissue perfusion is one of the frequent causes of death in trauma patients. In this context, there are various reasons for hemodynamic instability and shock including hypovolemic (hemorrhagic), obstructive (cardiac tamponade, tension pneumothorax), cardiogenic, neurogenic, and rarely septic. In the present report, a 30-year-old trauma patient with full clinical signs and symptoms of shock referred while had unknown origin; it was finally recognized as anaphylactic shock.

  20. The enduring legacy of Alma Ata: 30 years on.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exworthy, Mark

    2008-01-01

    The 1978 Alma Ata conference and declaration was a landmark in defining and providing a direction for primary healthcare. Despite the initial enthusiasm for Alma Ata, its impact appeared to have declined in the 1990s. However, in recent years, there has been a revitalisation of primary healthcare. This article reviews the Alma Ata conference and declaration, assesses its waxing and waning, and examines its recent revival. The paper draws conclusions about the relevance of Alma Ata, 30 years on.

  1. Clinical Analysis of Lung Cancer Patients Younger Than 30 Years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangjie HOU

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Background and objective It is common recognized that young patients of lung cancer have poor prognosis due to relatively higher malignancy and more invasive growth. In the past most studies on young patients of lung cancer selected patients younger than 40 or 45 years old, and there were few clinical materials for younger patients under 30 years. This study retrospectively described the the disease history, stage, treatment and pathology features of lung cancer patients younger than 30 years and aimed to provide references for these patients. Methods Those patients younger than 30 years, once admitted in the General Hospital of the People's Liberation Army for lung cancer from 1993 to date, were sought in medical record system, and 53 patients were found in total. In this group, there were 34 non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC patients and 19 small cell lung cacer (SCLC patients. The male/female ratio was 1.5:1. In the NSCLC patients, there were 27 adenocarcinomas, 6 squamous carcinomas and 1 adenosquamous carcinoma, with no large cell carcinoma involved. In these patients, 12 patients received operations while 38 patients got chemo- and/or radiotherapy and 3 quited any treatment. Results There was no death in hospital, however, in the 12 patients who got operation, only 8 patients got complete resection while 4 patients got palliative resection. Conclusion Lung cancer patients younger than 30 years had a high fraction of adenocarcinoma and small cell type pathologically and most of them were in late stage when presenting with symptoms in hospital and would have a dismal prognosis. The routine health examination and early diagnosis should be emphasized to improve the prognosis of these patients.

  2. Gastrointestinal bleeding 30 years after a complicated cholecystectomy

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Thorsten; Brechmann; Wolff; Schmiegel; Volkmar; Nicolas; Markus; Reiser

    2010-01-01

    Gastrointestinal bleeding from small-bowel varices is a rare and difficult to treat complication of portal hypertension. We describe the case of a 79-year-old female patient with recurrent severe hemorrhage from smallbowel varices 30 years after a complicated cholecystectomy. When double balloon enteroscopy was unsuccessful to reach the site of bleeding, a rendezvous approach was favored with intraoperative endoscopy. Active bleeding from varices within a biliodigestive anastomosis was found and controlled ...

  3. Exploring changes in rainfall intensity and seasonal variability in the Southeastern U.S.: Stakeholder engagement, observations, and adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel R. Dourte

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The distribution of rainfall has major impacts in agriculture, affecting the soil, hydrology, and plant health in agricultural systems. The goal of this study was to test for recent changes in rainfall intensity and seasonal rainfall variability in the Southeastern U.S. by exploring the data collaboratively with agricultural stakeholders. Daily rainfall records from the Global Historical Climatology Network were used to analyze changes in rain intensity and seasonal rainfall variability. During the last 30 years (1985–2014, there has been a significant change (53% increase in the number of extreme rainfall days (>152.4 mm/day and there have been significant decreases in the number of moderate intensity (12.7–25.4 mm/day and heavy (25.4–76.2 mm/day rainfall days in the Southeastern U.S., when compared to the previous 30-year period (1955–1984. There have also been significant decreases in the return period of months in which greater than half of the monthly total rain occurred in a single day; this is an original, stakeholder-developed rainfall intensity metric. The variability in spring and summer rainfall increased during the last 30 years, but winter and fall showed less variability in seasonal totals in the last 30 years. In agricultural systems, rainfall is one of the leading factors affecting yield variability; so it can be expected that more variable rainfall and more intense rain events could bring new challenges to agricultural production. However, these changes can also present opportunities for producers who are taking measures to adjust management strategies to make their systems more resilient to increased rain intensity and variability.

  4. An Objective Approach for Prediction of Daily Summer Monsoon Rainfall over Orissa (India) due to Interaction of Mesoscale and Large-scale Synoptic Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohapatra, M.; Mohanty, U. C.

    2007-09-01

    Orissa State, a meteorological subdivision of India, lies on the east coast of India close to north Bay of Bengal and to the south of the normal position of the monsoon trough. The monsoon disturbances such as depressions and cyclonic storms mostly develop to the north of 15° N over the Bay of Bengal and move along the monsoon trough. As Orissa lies in the southwest sector of such disturbances, it experiences very heavy rainfall due to the interaction of these systems with mesoscale convection sometimes leading to flood. The orography due to the Eastern Ghat and other hill peaks in Orissa and environs play a significant role in this interaction. The objective of this study is to develop an objective statistical model to predict the occurrence and quantity of precipitation during the next 24 hours over specific locations of Orissa, due to monsoon disturbances over north Bay and adjoining west central Bay of Bengal based on observations to up 0300 UTC of the day. A probability of precipitation (PoP) model has been developed by applying forward stepwise regression with available surface and upper air meteorological parameters observed in and around Orissa in association with monsoon disturbances during the summer monsoon season (June-September). The PoP forecast has been converted into the deterministic occurrence/non-occurrence of precipitation forecast using the critical value of PoP. The parameters selected through stepwise regression have been considered to develop quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) model using multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) for categorical prediction of precipitation in different ranges such as 0.1 10, 11 25, 26 50, 51 100 and >100 mm if the occurrence of precipitation is predicted by PoP model. All the above models have been developed based on data of summer monsoon seasons of 1980 1994, and data during 1995 1998 have been used for testing the skill of the models. Considering six representative stations for six homogeneous regions

  5. [Pacemaker implantation in dogs: results of the last 30 years].

    Science.gov (United States)

    François, L; Chetboul, V; Nicolle, A; Carlos, C; Borenstein, N; Pouchelon, J L

    2004-07-01

    Pacemaker implantation in veterinary practice is still not well known and remains uncommon. However, this technique is the only possible way to cure animals suffering from symptomatic bradycardia whose state does not improve with a medical treatment. In most cases, the use of pacemakers in veterinary medicine leads to the disappearance of the clinical and electrocardiographic signs. This retrospective study concerning the last 30 years draws up an evaluation of the improvements, advantages and drawbacks of this method. Moreover, this study allows the understanding of the evolution of pacemakers' use in veterinary cardiology.

  6. Plus or minus 30 years in the language sciences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newport, Elissa L

    2010-07-01

    The language sciences—Linguistics, Psycholinguistics, and Computational Linguistics—have not been broadly represented at the Cognitive Science Society meetings of the past 30 years, but they are an important part of the heart of cognitive science. This article discusses several major themes that have dominated the controversies and consensus in the study of language and suggests the most pressing issues of the future. These themes include differences among the language science disciplines in their view of numbers and symbols and of modular and distributed cognition, and the need for an increasing prominence of questions concerning language and the brain.

  7. Relações entre precipitações intensas de diferentes durações para desagregação da chuva diária em Santa Catarina Relationships between intense rainfall of different durations for disaggregation of daily rainfall in Santa Catarina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Álvaro J. Back

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Com este trabalho objetivou-se determinar as relações entre precipitações de diferentes durações para o Estado de Santa Catarina. Foram estabelecidas as séries de máximas anuais de chuva com duração de 5 a 1440 min de treze estações pluviográficas de Santa Catarina. Para cada duração foram estimadas as precipitações máximas com período de retorno de 2 a 100 anos, com base na distribuição de Gumbel-Chow. A relação média entre a chuva de 24 h e a chuva de um dia independe do período de retorno, com média para o estado de 1,17. Ao se analisar o horário da leitura da precipitação diária verificou-se que esta relação varia de 1,12 a 1,20. Em referência à chuva de 1 h em relação à chuva de 24 h observam-se valores significativamente inferiores aos normalmente usados.The aim of this study was to determine the relationships between rainfalls of different durations for the State of Santa Catarina. The series of annual maximum rainfall were defined with a duration of 5 to 1440 min of thirteen precipitation stations in Santa Catarina. For each duration maximum rainfall were estimated with a return period of 2 to 100 years, based on the Gumbel-Chow distribution. The relationship between the average rainfall of 24 h and one day rain does not depend on the return period, with an average of 1.17 for the State. When analyzing the time reading the daily precipitation it was messed that this ratio varies from 1.12 to 1.20. In relation to 1 h of rain over 24 h of rain it was observed values significantly lower than those normally used.

  8. What Has 30 Years of HIV Vaccine Research Taught Us?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Esparza

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available When HIV was discovered and established as the cause of AIDS in 1983–1984, many people believed that a vaccine would be rapidly developed. However, 30 years have passed and we are still struggling to develop an elusive vaccine. In trying to achieve that goal, different scientific paradigms have been explored. Although major progress has been made in understanding the scientific basis for HIV vaccine development, efficacy trials have been critical in moving the field forward. Major lessons learned are: the development of an HIV vaccine is an extremely difficult challenge; the temptation of just following the fashion should be avoided; clinical trials are critical, especially large-scale efficacy trials; HIV vaccine research will require long-term commitment; and sustainable collaborations are needed to accelerate the development of an HIV vaccine. Concrete actions must be implemented with the sense of urgency imposed by the severity of the AIDS epidemic.

  9. What Has 30 Years of HIV Vaccine Research Taught Us?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esparza, José

    2013-10-30

    When HIV was discovered and established as the cause of AIDS in 1983-1984, many people believed that a vaccine would be rapidly developed. However, 30 years have passed and we are still struggling to develop an elusive vaccine. In trying to achieve that goal, different scientific paradigms have been explored. Although major progress has been made in understanding the scientific basis for HIV vaccine development, efficacy trials have been critical in moving the field forward. Major lessons learned are: the development of an HIV vaccine is an extremely difficult challenge; the temptation of just following the fashion should be avoided; clinical trials are critical, especially large-scale efficacy trials; HIV vaccine research will require long-term commitment; and sustainable collaborations are needed to accelerate the development of an HIV vaccine. Concrete actions must be implemented with the sense of urgency imposed by the severity of the AIDS epidemic.

  10. Interactions between libraries and technology over the past 30 years

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Greifeneder, Elke; Seadle, Michael; Lynch, Clifford

    2012-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to look back on the last 30 years of technology development for libraries. Design/methodology/approach – The paper presents an interview that took place at the American Library Association Annual Meeting in Anaheim, California. Findings – The paper reveals...... that many of the developments are slow. There are very few really sudden revolutions in social-scale technologies. They do not switch on quickly and cannot be sudden because the installed base is too thin. Originality/value – The paper reveals that there should be some renewed conversation about how...... libraries can help the public. In the early days of the internet libraries played an enormous uncredited role in teaching the adult population about the it. There are some opportunities like that now, and one place where we are starting to see signs of it is digital preservation, not as libraries doing...

  11. Epithelial ovarian carcinoma in women aged below 30 years

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chen Rong; Shen Keng; Wu Ming; Pan Ling-ya; Huang Hui-fang; Yang Jia-xin; Lang Jing-he

    2005-01-01

    Objective: To study the manifestation, pathohistologic type, stage of disease, treatment and outcome of epithelial ovarian carcinoma in women under the age of 30 years.Methods: The 21 cases of epithelial ovarian carcinoma in women aged below 30 years between Jan, 1986 and Mar, 2002 were analyzed retrospectively.Results: The median age at the time of diagnosis was 24 years (range, 16-29 years). All carcinomas occurred after menarche. The most common symptoms were abdominal pain (50%), followed by tympanites (25%) and menstrual disorders (19%). The initial diagnosis was usually made by physical examination, ultrasonography and serum CA125. The mean maximal tumor diameter was 17.6 cm. Ten patients had Stage I disease (5 Ia, 5 Ic), five had Stage Ⅲ disease, and the other six were unknown during staging operation. There were nine mucinous tumors, six serous tumors. Most tumors were well-differentiated and classified as Grade1 in 11 cases, Grade2 in 2 cases, Grade3 in 2 cases, unknown in 6 cases. Optimal and suboptimal cytoreduction was achieved in 14 patients in primary treatment and 5 in recurrent treatment. 8 patients were treated with conservative surgery. 18 patients were treated with chemotherapy and 7 patients had experienced six or more than six courses of chemotherapy. The median follow-up was 50 months (range, 2-192 months). There were 6 deaths, 2 alive with tumor, 11 alive without the disease, 2 losing follow-up. The 3-year survival rate was 89%, and 5-year survival rate was 76%.Conclusion: Young patients with epithelial ovarian carcinoma appeared to have a less aggressive form of the disease and a more favorable prognosis.

  12. Rainfall statistics changes in Sicily

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Arnone

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Changes in rainfall characteristics are one of the most relevant signs of current climate alterations. Many studies have demonstrated an increase in rainfall intensity and a reduction of frequency in several areas of the world, including Mediterranean areas. Rainfall characteristics may be crucial for vegetation patterns formation and evolution in Mediterranean ecosystems, with important implications, for example, in vegetation water stress or coexistence and competition dynamics. At the same time, characteristics of extreme rainfall events are fundamental for the estimation of flood peaks and quantiles which can be used in many hydrological applications, such as design of the most common hydraulic structures, or planning and management of flood prone areas.

    In the past, Sicily has been screened for several signals of possible climate change. Annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall data in the entire Sicilian region have been analyzed, showing a global reduction of total annual rainfall. Moreover, annual maximum rainfall series for different durations have been rarely analyzed in order to detect the presence of trends. Results indicated that for short durations, historical series generally exhibit increasing trends while for longer durations the trends are mainly negative.

    Starting from these premises, the aim of this study is to investigate and quantify changes in rainfall statistics in Sicily, during the second half of the last century. Time series of about 60 stations over the region have been processed and screened by using the non parametric Mann–Kendall test.

    Particularly, extreme events have been analyzed using annual maximum rainfall series at 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 h duration while daily rainfall properties have been analyzed in term of frequency and intensity, also characterizing seasonal rainfall features. Results of extreme events analysis confirmed an increasing trend for rainfall of short durations

  13. Rainfall statistics changes in Sicily

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Arnone

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Changes in rainfall characteristics are one of the most relevant signs of current climate alterations. Many studies have demonstrated an increase in rainfall intensity and a reduction of frequency in several areas of the world, including Mediterranean areas. Rainfall characteristics may be crucial for vegetation patterns formation and evolution in Mediterranean ecosystems, with important implications, for example, in vegetation water stress or coexistence and competition dynamics. At the same time, characteristics of extreme rainfall events are fundamental for the estimation of flood peaks and quantiles that can be used in many hydrological applications, such as design of the most common hydraulic structures, or planning and management of flood-prone areas. In the past, Sicily has been screened for several signals of possible climate change. Annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall data in the entire Sicilian region have been analyzed, showing a global reduction of total annual rainfall. Moreover, annual maximum rainfall series for different durations have been rarely analyzed in order to detect the presence of trends. Results indicated that for short durations, historical series generally exhibit increasing trends, while for longer durations the trends are mainly negative. Starting from these premises, the aim of this study is to investigate and quantify changes in rainfall statistics in Sicily, during the second half of the last century. Time series of about 60 stations over the region have been processed and screened by using the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test. In particular, extreme events have been analyzed using annual maximum rainfall series at 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 h duration, while daily rainfall properties have been analyzed in terms of frequency and intensity, also characterizing seasonal rainfall features. Results of extreme events analysis confirmed an increasing trend for rainfall of short durations, especially for 1 h rainfall

  14. 30 years of experience in safe transportation of nuclear materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaneko, K. [Nuclear Fuel Transport Co., Ltd., Tokyo (Japan)

    2004-07-01

    In April 2003, Nuclear Fuel Transport Co., Ltd. (NFT) marked the 30{sup th} anniversary of its founding. NFT was established in 1973 and in 1978, commenced SF transport to the reprocessing plant in Tokai-mura. And then, after making preparations to transport nuclear materials to the various facilities at the Nuclear Fuel Cycle Center in Rokkasho-mura, NFT successfully started transportation of LLW (low level waste) to Rokksho-mura's LLW disposal center in 1992, domestic land transportation of HLW returned from overseas to the HLW storage center in 1995, domestic land transportation of natural hexafluoride delivered from overseas to the uranium enrichment plant in 1996, and transportation of SF to the reprocessing plant in 2000. NFT has realized an annual SF transportation capacity of 300 MTU and is currently making great company wide efforts to meet the Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant's future SF annual reprocessing capacity of 800MTU. At the end of FY2003, NFT had successfully transported 560 casks (about 1,730 MTU) of SF in more than 200 voyages in total, about 160,000 drums of LLW in around 100 voyages in total. This paper introduces the record of safe transport and its experience over the past 30 years and prospect for future transport business.

  15. Spatial dependence of extreme rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radi, Noor Fadhilah Ahmad; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Satari, Siti Zanariah; Azman, Muhammad Az-zuhri

    2017-05-01

    This study aims to model the spatial extreme daily rainfall process using the max-stable model. The max-stable model is used to capture the dependence structure of spatial properties of extreme rainfall. Three models from max-stable are considered namely Smith, Schlather and Brown-Resnick models. The methods are applied on 12 selected rainfall stations in Kelantan, Malaysia. Most of the extreme rainfall data occur during wet season from October to December of 1971 to 2012. This period is chosen to assure the available data is enough to satisfy the assumption of stationarity. The dependence parameters including the range and smoothness, are estimated using composite likelihood approach. Then, the bootstrap approach is applied to generate synthetic extreme rainfall data for all models using the estimated dependence parameters. The goodness of fit between the observed extreme rainfall and the synthetic data is assessed using the composite likelihood information criterion (CLIC). Results show that Schlather model is the best followed by Brown-Resnick and Smith models based on the smallest CLIC's value. Thus, the max-stable model is suitable to be used to model extreme rainfall in Kelantan. The study on spatial dependence in extreme rainfall modelling is important to reduce the uncertainties of the point estimates for the tail index. If the spatial dependency is estimated individually, the uncertainties will be large. Furthermore, in the case of joint return level is of interest, taking into accounts the spatial dependence properties will improve the estimation process.

  16. NPY and stress 30 years later: the peripheral view.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirsch, Dalay; Zukowska, Zofia

    2012-07-01

    Almost 30 years ago, neuropeptide Y (NPY) was discovered as a sympathetic co-transmitter and one of the most evolutionarily conserved peptides abundantly present all over the body. Soon afterward, NPY's multiple receptors were characterized and cloned, and the peptide's role in stress was first documented. NPY has proven to be pivotal for maintaining many stress responses. Most notably, NPY is known for activating long-lasting vasoconstriction in many vascular beds, including coronary arteries. More recently, NPY was found to play a role in stress-induced accretion of adipose tissue which many times can lead to detrimental metabolic changes. It is however due to its prominent actions in the brain, one of which is its powerful ability to stimulate appetite as well as its anxiolytic activities that NPY became a peptide of importance in neuroscience. In contrast, its actions in the rest of the body, including its role as a stress mediator, remained, surprisingly underappreciated and not well understood. Our research has focused on that other, "peripheral" side of NPY. In this review, we will discuss those actions of NPY on the cardiovascular system and metabolism, as they relate to adaptation to stress, and attempt to both distinguish NPY's effects from and integrate them with the effects of the classical stress mediators, glucocorticoids, and catecholamines. To limit the bias of someone (ZZ) who has viewed the world of stress through the eyes of NPY for over 20 years, fresh insight (DH) has been solicited to more objectively assess NPY's contributions to stress-related diseases and the body's ability to adapt to stress.

  17. A 30-Year Retrospective: Degrees of Difficulty in Decreasing LOS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zander, Karen

    2016-01-01

    In an attempt to avoid future revisionist history, the author offers a 30-year retrospective (1986-2016) on the evolution of strategies to reduce length of stay (LOS). She and her colleagues have been involved from the onset by developing tools such as critical paths, roles such as clinical case management, and operational systems for managing measureable outcome-driven care from the bedside to the boardroom. Acute care hospitals. The LOS for all inpatients has changed dramatically from 1970 (average LOS = 7.8 days) through solidly between 2005 and 2012 (average LOS = 4.5 days in 2012) despite a significant increase in the average age of hospital inpatients (; ). For patients 65 years and older, who comprised 38% of all inpatients, the decrease has been more drastic: from 12.6 days in 1970 to 5.5 days in 2005-2010 ().With the exception of hospitalists and case management staff, acute care hospitals have essentially doubled productivity without adding additional direct care full-time equivalents! Described in terms of "low-hanging" to "high-hanging" fruit, this article outlines the classic methods used to reduce LOS and concludes with some implications of LOS for health care reform. The U.S. health system could not have accomplished this feat without case managers and social workers. Acute care services should be very proud of their achievements and use their reputation to empower their work for the next frontier, which will be reducing cost per case, especially in risk contracts. Everything old seems new again.

  18. Synthesising 30 years of mathematical modelling of Echinococcus transmission.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jo-An M Atkinson

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Echinococcosis is a complex zoonosis that has domestic and sylvatic lifecycles, and a range of different intermediate and definitive host species. The complexities of its transmission and the sparse evidence on the effectiveness of control strategies in diverse settings provide significant challenges for the design of effective public health policy against this disease. Mathematical modelling is a useful tool for simulating control packages under locally specific transmission conditions to inform optimal timing and frequency of phased interventions for cost-effective control of echinococcosis. The aims of this review of 30 years of Echinococcus modelling were to discern the epidemiological mechanisms underpinning models of Echinococcus granulosus and E. multilocularis transmission and to establish the need to include a human transmission component in such models. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A search was conducted of all relevant articles published up until July 2012, identified from the PubMED, Web of Knowledge and Medline databases and review of bibliographies of selected papers. Papers eligible for inclusion were those describing the design of a new model, or modification of an existing mathematical model of E. granulosus or E. multilocularis transmission. A total of 13 eligible papers were identified, five of which described mathematical models of E. granulosus and eight that described E. multilocularis transmission. These models varied primarily on the basis of six key mechanisms that all have the capacity to modulate model dynamics, qualitatively affecting projections. These are: 1 the inclusion of a 'latent' class and/or time delay from host exposure to infectiousness; 2 an age structure for animal hosts; 3 the presence of density-dependent constraints; 4 accounting for seasonality; 5 stochastic parameters; and 6 inclusion of spatial and risk structures. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This review discusses the conditions under

  19. Lunokhod 2 - A retrospective Glance after 30 Years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gromov, V.; Kemurdjian, A.; Bogatchev, A.; Koutcherenko, V.; Malenkov, M.; Matrossov, S.; Vladykin, S.; Petriga, V.; Khakhanov, Y.

    2003-04-01

    30 years have passed since the second Soviet research Lunokhod-2 rover landed on the Moon on January 16, 1973 within the framework of the Luna-21 mission. Scientific explorations of the lunar surface and space, begun with the Lunokhod-1 rover (1970-1971), were continued with Lunokhod-2. Creation of Lunokhod-1 and Lunokhod-2 marked realization of direction on study of planets using mobile self-propelled robots. Other direction connected with using planetary rovers to transport astronauts, scientific equipment and weights was realized as a result of creation of the American LRV lunar rover. Astronauts during Apollo-15 (1971), Apollo-15 (1972) and Apollo-15 (1972) missions used it. Programs of operation for Lunokhod-1,-2 on the Moon envisaged investigations of topographic and morphological peculiarities of the terrain, determination of the chemical composition and physical and mechanical properties of soil, experiments on the laser detection and ranging of the Moon and, etc. Successful fulfilment of programs was ensured, to a considerable extent, with the self-propelled chassis developed at VNIITRANSMASH to order of the Lavochkin Scientific and Production Association (NPOL). The chassis, on the one hand, ensured necessary cross-country ability for Lunokhod-1,-2, on the other hand, it was as the independent scientific instrument, which provided investigation as temperature measurement of the lunar surface, surface topography and craters distribution, physical and mechanical properties of soil with the special PROP instrument equipped with the penetrometer, chassis traction-cohesive characteristics, upper surface layer by a character its deformation by the mover, etc. A number of improvements of Lunokhod-2 improving its operating characteristics were performed on the basis of results of Lunokhod-1 operation. Lunokhod-1,-2 operation confirmed that automatic mobile robots can be used as effective means for studying planets and their satellites. At the same time, an

  20. Changes in the rainfall-streamflow regimes related to climate change in a small catchment in Northern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pieri, Linda; Rondini, Davide; Ventura, Francesca

    2017-08-01

    Climate change has become an important issue for scientific community, for its numerous impacts, especially on agriculture and environment. To shed light on this phenomenon, long data-sets of meteorological data as well as temperature and rainfall extreme events are needed, since they are important climate variability indicators. In a small semi-agricultural catchment of the Italian Apennines, drained by the Centonara Stream, weather data have been monitored for 30 years (1986-2015). Here, their trend was identified with Mann-Kendall test, and the temperature and precipitation extremes were characterized by means of specific indices. Data were analyzed at event, daily, seasonal, and annual bases. In addition, to understand implications of rainfall patterns on catchment hydrological response, a total of 388 rainfall-streamflow events (recorded during 1994-2009) were analyzed. Results showed a significant increase of temperature (minimum (Tn), mean (Tm), and maximum (Tx)), both at annual and seasonal base, except for Winter, with an annual mean increase of 0.08, 0.09, and 0.13 °C year-1 for Tn, Tm, and Tx, respectively. Annual rainfall data showed a positive trend for the number of wet days, but not in the quantity. In Winter, the rainfall amount and the number of wet days increased. The annual number of rainfall extreme events ( P > 20.2 mm and D > 18.3 h) significantly increased, especially in spring and autumn. The rainfall-streamflow relationship suggested that the flow response of the Centonara Stream depends mainly on the rainfall amount. So, since the number of extreme events ( P > 20.2 mm) is increasing in spring and autumn, an increase of events with high streamflow in these seasons may occur.

  1. Isotretinoin: dose, duration and relapse. What does 30 years of usage tell us?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rademaker, Marius

    2013-08-01

    With 30 years of clinical use, it is appropriate to review the use of isotretinoin. We now understand that retinoids influence cellular growth, differentiation, morphogenesis and apoptosis, inhibit tumour promotion and malignant cell growth, exert immuno-modulatory actions and alter cellular cohesiveness. This has expanded the indications of isotretinoin from just acne and rosacea to a wide range of inflammatory and malignant skin disorders. While the standard dose of 0.5 to 1 mg/kg per day for 4 months to a cumulative dose of 120-140 mg/kg per day has served us well in the management of acne vulgaris, there is emerging evidence that much lower dosages (as low as 5 mg/day) are just as effective but have significantly fewer adverse effects. Relapse of acne vulgaris continues to be a problem but we are beginning to recognise that this is related less to the cumulative dose and more to the length of sebaceous gland suppression. Other factors important for relapse include a macrocomedonal pattern of acne, smoking and age, both younger (under 14 years) and older (over 25 years). After 30 years of use, we now understand why isotretinoin is such an effective drug. Not only does it clear acne in almost all patients, long-term remission can be achieved in 70-80% of patients with a single course. Important changes in the use of isotretinoin include using a lower daily dose for a longer period of time. New indications continue to emerge, particularly as a potential treatment for both intrinsic and extrinsic (photo) aging. Teratogenicity however, remains a very significant concern.

  2. Rainfall erosivity estimation based on rainfall data collected over a range of temporal resolutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Yin

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall erosivity is the power of rainfall to cause soil erosion by water. The rainfall erosivity index for a rainfall event, EI30, is calculated from the total kinetic energy and maximum 30 min intensity of individual events. However, these data are often unavailable in many areas of the world. The purpose of this study was to develop models that relate more commonly available rainfall data resolutions, such as daily or monthly totals, to rainfall erosivity. Eleven stations with one-minute temporal resolution rainfall data collected from 1961 through 2000 in the eastern water-erosion areas of China were used to develop and calibrate 21 models. Seven independent stations, also with one-minute data, were utilized to validate those models, together with 20 previously published equations. Results showed that models in this study performed better or similar to models from previous research to estimate rainfall erosivity for these data. Prediction capabilities, as determined using symmetric mean absolute percentage errors and Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficients, were demonstrated for the 41 models including those for estimating erosivity at event, daily, monthly, yearly, average monthly and average annual time scales. Prediction capabilities were generally better using higher resolution rainfall data as inputs. For example, models with rainfall amount and maximum 60 min rainfall amount as inputs performed better than models with rainfall amount and maximum daily rainfall amount, which performed better than those with only rainfall amount. Recommendations are made for choosing the appropriate estimation equation, which depend on objectives and data availability.

  3. Changes in extreme rainfall over South-East Asia and their link to the monsoon system in 21th century from CMIP5 simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freychet, N.; Chou, C.; Hsu, H.; Wu, C.

    2013-12-01

    The South-East Asia is well known for its recurrent heavy rainfall, either due to typhoons or monsoon systems. In a global warming scenario, extreme rainfall are expected to increase, both in intensity and frequency, because of the increase in air moisture. This increase often comes along with an augmentation of dry days frequency, indicating that the atmospheric water is released less frequently but more intensively. This can be explained by a rise of mid-level troposphere temperature, which increase the required CAPE for convection. Several studies already pointed out this aspect with the CMIP3 results. Here we investigate the change in extreme rainfall (i.e. the 99th percentile of precipitation) over South-East Asia, using the CMIP5 daily results. We compare the mean long term trend (i.e. the mean of 30 years at the end of the 21th century forecast), with the average of 30 years from historical runs. We do not only perform global statistical analysis, but we mainly look at the spatial pattern of changes, along with the modification of the monsoon system in this region. We also investigate the seasonal and monthly signal of changes. This study focus on rainfall over lands only, because of their possible social and economic impacts. The results show first a wild range between models regarding their sensitivity to the global warming. In the mean, they all show an increase in extreme rainfall. But the range of the change in intensity goes from 0 to 50 percent (increase), which point out great uncertainties. In all the models, the extreme rainfall increase much faster than the average precipitation. This increase is weaker during winter (about 10%) and stronger during summer (30%), characterizing an intensification in the monsoon system. This also means that the inter-seasonal signal should increase by the end of the century. The monsoon is not affected uniformly. We observe intra-seasonal variation, with enhance or decrease in winds velocities, and also differences

  4. Heterogeneity of Dutch rainfall

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Witter, J.V.

    1984-01-01

    Rainfall data for the Netherlands have been used in this study to investigate aspects of heterogeneity of rainfall, in particular local differences in rainfall levels, time trends in rainfall, and local differences in rainfall trend. The possible effect of urbanization and industrialization on the

  5. Rainfall Variability, Drought Characterization, and Efficacy of Rainfall Data Reconstruction: Case of Eastern Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Oscar Kisaka

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study examined the extent of seasonal rainfall variability, drought occurrence, and the efficacy of interpolation techniques in eastern Kenya. Analyses of rainfall variability utilized rainfall anomaly index, coefficients of variance, and probability analyses. Spline, Kriging, and inverse distance weighting interpolation techniques were assessed using daily rainfall data and digital elevation model using ArcGIS. Validation of these interpolation methods was evaluated by comparing the modelled/generated rainfall values and the observed daily rainfall data using root mean square errors and mean absolute errors statistics. Results showed 90% chance of below cropping threshold rainfall (500 mm exceeding 258.1 mm during short rains in Embu for one year return period. Rainfall variability was found to be high in seasonal amounts (CV = 0.56, 0.47, and 0.59 and in number of rainy days (CV = 0.88, 0.49, and 0.53 in Machang’a, Kiritiri, and Kindaruma, respectively. Monthly rainfall variability was found to be equally high during April and November (CV = 0.48, 0.49, and 0.76 with high probabilities (0.67 of droughts exceeding 15 days in Machang’a and Kindaruma. Dry-spell probabilities within growing months were high, (91%, 93%, 81%, and 60% in Kiambere, Kindaruma, Machang’a, and Embu, respectively. Kriging interpolation method emerged as the most appropriate geostatistical interpolation technique suitable for spatial rainfall maps generation for the study region.

  6. Spatio-temporal variability of rainfall regime in the Brahmaputra valley of North East India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deka, R. L.; Mahanta, C.; Nath, K. K.; Dutta, M. K.

    2016-05-01

    Monthly rainfall data, spanning over 110 years (1901-2010), were utilized for trend analysis at different spatial and temporal scales over the Brahmaputra valley, India. The Mann-Kendall statistic and Sen's slope model were used to identify the trends and estimate the magnitude of change, respectively. Statistical significance of the decadal shifts in rainfall from the overall mean was estimated by using Cramer's test. The analysis revealed decrease in annual as well as monsoon rainfall in the Brahmaputra valley during the last 110 years with large spatial and temporal variations. These decreasing trends of rainfall in the eastern part of the valley were statistically significant. Significant decreasing trend of monsoon rainfall during the recent 30-year period was due to significant decrease of July and September rainfall, and this trend was found to be consistent at different spatial scales. In the last decade (2001-2010) in particular, monsoon rainfall exhibited significant negative deviation from the normal due to three deficient years and absence of excess rainfall years. On the contrary, contribution of pre-monsoon and post-monsoon rainfall to annual total in the Brahmaputra valley increased during the recent 30-year period. Winter rainfall in the valley decreased during the last 30 years due to significant decrease of December rainfall in the eastern and central parts.

  7. Rainfall variation and child health: effect of rainfall on diarrhea among under 5 children in Rwanda, 2010

    OpenAIRE

    Mukabutera, Assumpta; Thomson, Dana; Murray, Megan; Basinga, Paulin; Nyirazinyoye, Laetitia; Atwood, Sidney; Savage, Kevin P.; Ngirimana, Aimable; Hedt-Gauthier, Bethany L.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Diarrhea among children under 5 years of age has long been a major public health concern. Previous studies have suggested an association between rainfall and diarrhea. Here, we examined the association between Rwandan rainfall patterns and childhood diarrhea and the impact of household sanitation variables on this relationship. Methods: We derived a series of rain-related variables in Rwanda based on daily rainfall measurements and hydrological models built from daily precipitatio...

  8. Founders lecture 2007. Metabolic bone disease: what has changed in 30 years?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sundaram, Murali [Cleveland Clinic, Diagnostic Radiology, MSK, Cleveland, OH (United States)

    2009-09-15

    To provide an update on imaging of metabolic bone disease based on new developments, findings, and changing practices over the past 30 years. Literature review of osteoporosis, osteomalacia, renal osteodystrophy, Paget's disease, bisphosphonates, with an emphasis on imaging. Cited references and pertinent findings. Significant developments have occurred in the imaging of metabolic bone disease over the past 30 years. (orig.)

  9. 30 years of upper air soundings on board of R/V POLARSTERN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Driemel, Amelie; Loose, Bernd; Grobe, Hannes; Sieger, Rainer; König-Langlo, Gert

    2016-06-01

    The research vessel and supply icebreaker POLARSTERN is the flagship of the Alfred-Wegener-Institut in Bremerhaven (Germany) and one of the infrastructural pillars of German Antarctic research. Since its commissioning in 1982, POLARSTERN has conducted 30 campaigns to Antarctica (157 legs, mostly austral summer), and 29 to the Arctic (94 legs, northern summer). Usually, POLARSTERN is more than 300 days per year in operation and crosses the Atlantic Ocean in a meridional section twice a year. The first radiosonde on POLARSTERN was released on the 29 December 1982, 2 days after POLARSTERN started on its maiden voyage to the Antarctic. And these daily soundings have continued up to the present. Due to the fact that POLARSTERN has reliably and regularly been providing upper air observations from data sparse regions (oceans and polar regions), the radiosonde data are of special value for researchers and weather forecast services alike. In the course of 30 years (29 December 1982 to 25 November 2012) a total of 12 378 radiosonde balloons were started on POLARSTERN. All radiosonde data can now be found at König-Langlo (2015, doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.810000). Each data set contains the directly measured parameters air temperature, relative humidity and air pressure, and the derived altitude, wind direction and wind speed. 432 data sets additionally contain ozone measurements.Although more sophisticated techniques (meteorological satellites, aircraft observation, remote-sensing systems, etc.) have nowadays become increasingly important, the high vertical resolution and quality of radiosonde data remains paramount for weather forecasts and modelling approaches.

  10. Análisis metodológico de la distribución espacial de la precipitación y la estimación media diaria Methodological analysis of the spatial distribution of rainfall and the average daily stimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauro Íñiguez Covarrubias

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available El objetivo del trabajo consistió en mostrar un análisis metodológico geoestadístico, para generar un patrón espacial de la lluvia, asociado a la precipitación media diaria. Caracterizar y conocer la distribución espacial de la precipitación, también conocida como "campo de tormenta" y asociarla a un modelo de distribución o sustituirla por una precipitación media por métodos convencionales, es un reto importante en estudios de las ciencias del agua. La metodología propuesta requiere de la construcción de un variograma, elaborado por un ajuste de datos experimentales de un campo de tormenta, que sirva como base para generar la distribución espacial de la lluvia con la aplicación del método geoestadístico del "krigeado". Esto permite determinar la precipitación media diaria de una cuenca hidrográfica. Los resultados muestran que es posible obtener una función que relacione la lluvia media con el campo de tormenta, mediante los parámetros α y β del variograma ajustado a un modelo esférico. Para validar la aplicación de la metodología se analizaron varios eventos, aquí se presentan dos eventos de precipitación observada en la cuenca del río Juchipila, y río Calvillo, entre los estados de Aguascalientes y Zacatecas. Los resultados muestran una relación única de la lluvia media diaria con la distribución espacial, representada por el campo de tormenta. Asimismo, se encontró que el valor óptimo de la función es mínimo al compararlo con los resultados obtenidos por cuatro métodos convencionales: promedio aritmético, polígonos de Thiessen, método de isoyetas y método de krigeado lineal.The aim of the study was to show a geostatistical methodological analysis to create a spatial pattern of rain, related to average daily rainfall. Defining and knowing the spatial distribution of rainfall, also known as the "storm field" and related to a distribution model, or replacing it to an average rainfall using conventional

  11. Trends in rainfall and rainfall-related extremes in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Olaniya Olusegun Mayowa; Sahar Hadi Pour; Shamsuddin Shahid; Morteza Mohsenipour; Sobri Bin Harun; Arien Heryansyah; Tarmizi Ismail

    2015-12-01

    The coastlines have been identified as the most vulnerable regions with respect to hydrological hazards as a result of climate change and variability. The east of peninsular Malaysia is not an exception for this, considering the evidence of heavy rainfall resulting in floods as an annual phenomenon and also water scarcity due to long dry spells in the region. This study examines recent trends in rainfall and rainfallrelated extremes such as, maximum daily rainfall, number of rainy days, average rainfall intensity, heavy rainfall days, extreme rainfall days, and precipitation concentration index in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia. Recent 40 years (1971–2010) rainfall records from 54 stations along the east coast of peninsular Malaysia have been analyzed using the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and the Sen's slope method. The Monte Carlo simulation technique has been used to determine the field significance of the regional trends. The results showed that there was a substantial increase in the annual rainfall as well as the rainfall during the monsoon period. Also, there was an increase in the number of heavy rainfall days during the past four decades.

  12. Strongest Tropical cyclones: 1980-2009: A 30-year collage of Hurricane Satellite (HURSAT) data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Strongest Tropical Cyclones: 1980-2009 poster - a 30-year collage of Hurricane Satellite (HURSAT) data. This poster depicts a series of 5 degree grids where within...

  13. Exhibition on the 30 Years of Reform and Opening-up Held

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    @@ In commemoration of the 30 years of reform and opening-up, under the authorization of the State Council, the "Review Exhibition on the 30-Year Reform and Opening-Up of China," jointly sponsored by the Ministry of Commerce of the PRC, the International Communication Office of the CPC Central Committee, the Party Literature Research Center of the CPC Central Committee and Xinhua News Agency, opened in the Exhibition Hall of the China World Trade Center on December 18.

  14. Simulação da precipitação diária para Parnaíba e Teresina, PI, em planilha eletrônica Daily rainfall simulation in Parnaíba and Teresina - Brazil, using a spreadsheet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aderson S. de Andrade Júnior

    2001-05-01

    Full Text Available Os estudos envolvendo precipitação pluviométrica são bastante dificultados devido ao fato das séries históricas disponíveis serem, na maioria dos casos, muito pequenas para efetuá-los. Desta forma, faz-se necessário dispor de uma técnica de simulação estocástica que possibilite a geração de valores diários de precipitação, utilizando-se uma planilha eletrônica. No Estado do Piauí, estudos com esse objetivo são inexistentes, razão por que este trabalho tem o objetivo de simular a precipitação pluviométrica diária para as regiões de Parnaíba e Teresina, PI, através de uma planilha eletrônica. O processo de simulação se baseou no método de Monte Carlo. A ocorrência da precipitação foi determinada através da cadeia de Markov, enquanto a sua magnitude foi estimada pelas funções de distribuição de probabilidades gama e empírica. O modelo utilizado proporcionou estimativas com excelente precisão e exatidão, fato comprovado pelos resultados satisfatórios quanto aos índices de desempenho estatísticos.The studies involving rainfall are quite difficult to conduct due to the fact that the available historical series, in most of the cases, are too small to make them. Thus, it is necessary to adjust a stochastic simulation technique that facilitates the generation of daily rainfall values, using a spreadsheet. In Piauí State, studies with this objective are inexistent for its several regions of agricultural importance. This work was executed with the objective of simulating the daily rainfall for the regions of Parnaíba and Teresina - PI, Brazil, using a spreadsheet. The simulation process was based on Monte Carlo's method. The occurrence of the rainfall was determined through a Markov chain, while its magnitude was estimated by gamma and empirical distribution functions. The model used provided estimates with excellent precision and accuracy, checked by satisfactory results of the statistical performance index.

  15. Topographic relationships for design rainfalls over Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, F.; Hutchinson, M. F.; The, C.; Beesley, C.; Green, J.

    2016-02-01

    Design rainfall statistics are the primary inputs used to assess flood risk across river catchments. These statistics normally take the form of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves that are derived from extreme value probability distributions fitted to observed daily, and sub-daily, rainfall data. The design rainfall relationships are often required for catchments where there are limited rainfall records, particularly catchments in remote areas with high topographic relief and hence some form of interpolation is required to provide estimates in these areas. This paper assesses the topographic dependence of rainfall extremes by using elevation-dependent thin plate smoothing splines to interpolate the mean annual maximum rainfall, for periods from one to seven days, across Australia. The analyses confirm the important impact of topography in explaining the spatial patterns of these extreme rainfall statistics. Continent-wide residual and cross validation statistics are used to demonstrate the 100-fold impact of elevation in relation to horizontal coordinates in explaining the spatial patterns, consistent with previous rainfall scaling studies and observational evidence. The impact of the complexity of the fitted spline surfaces, as defined by the number of knots, and the impact of applying variance stabilising transformations to the data, were also assessed. It was found that a relatively large number of 3570 knots, suitably chosen from 8619 gauge locations, was required to minimise the summary error statistics. Square root and log data transformations were found to deliver marginally superior continent-wide cross validation statistics, in comparison to applying no data transformation, but detailed assessments of residuals in complex high rainfall regions with high topographic relief showed that no data transformation gave superior performance in these regions. These results are consistent with the understanding that in areas with modest topographic relief, as

  16. Responses of grassland vegetation to climatic variations on different temporal scales in Hulun Buir Grassland in the past 30 years

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Geli; XU Xingliang; ZHOU Caiping; ZHANG Hongbin; OUYANG Hua

    2011-01-01

    Global warming has led to significant vegetation changes especially in the past 20 years.Hulun Buir Grassland in Inner Mongolia,one of the world's three prairies,is undergoing a process of prominent warming and drying.It is essential to investigate the effects of climatic change (temperature and precipitation) on vegetation dynamics for a better understanding of climatic change.NDVl (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index),reflecting characteristics of plant growth,vegetation coverage and biomass,is used as an indicator to monitor vegetation changes.GIMMS NDVl from 1981 to 2006 and MODIS NDVl from 2000 to 2009 were adopted and integrated in this study to extract the time series characteristics of vegetation changes in Hulun Buir Grassland.The responses of vegetation coverage to climatic change on the yearly,seasonal and monthly scales were analyzed combined with temperature and precipitation data of seven meteorological sites.In the past 30 years,vegetation coverage was more correlated with climatic factors,and the correlations were dependent on the time scales.On an inter-annual scale,vegetation change was better correlated with precipitation,suggesting that rainfall was the main factor for driving vegetation changes.On a seasonal-interannual scale,correlations between vegetation coverage change and climatic factors showed that the sensitivity of vegetation growth to the aqueous and thermal condition changes was different in different seasons.The sensitivity of vegetation growth to temperature in summers was higher than in the other seasons,while its sensitivity to rainfall in both summers and autumns was higher,especially in summers.On a monthly-interannual scale,correlations between vegetation coverage change and climatic factors during growth seasons showed that the response of vegetation changes to temperature in both April and May was stronger.This indicates that the temperature effect occurs in the early stage of vegetation growth.Correlations between

  17. Heavy rainfall equations for Santa Catarina, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Álvaro José Back

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge of intensity-duration-frequency (IDF relationships of rainfall events is extremely important to determine the dimensions of surface drainage structures and soil erosion control. The purpose of this study was to obtain IDF equations of 13 rain gauge stations in the state of Santa Catarina in Brazil: Chapecó, Urussanga, Campos Novos, Florianópolis, Lages, Caçador, Itajaí, Itá, Ponte Serrada, Porto União, Videira, Laguna and São Joaquim. The daily rainfall data charts of each station were digitized and then the annual maximum rainfall series were determined for durations ranging from 5 to 1440 min. Based on these, with the Gumbel-Chow distribution, the maximum rainfall was estimated for durations ranging from 5 min to 24 h, considering return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20, 25, 50, and 100 years,. Data agreement with the Gumbel-Chow model was verified by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, at 5 % significance level. For each rain gauge station, two IDF equations of rainfall events were adjusted, one for durations from 5 to 120 min and the other from 120 to 1440 min. The results show a high variability in maximum intensity of rainfall events among the studied stations. Highest values of coefficients of variation in the annual maximum series of rainfall were observed for durations of over 600 min at the stations of the coastal region of Santa Catarina.

  18. Investigation of summer monsoon rainfall variability in Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussain, Mian Sabir; Lee, Seungho

    2016-08-01

    This study analyzes the inter-annual and intra-seasonal rainfall variability in Pakistan using daily rainfall data during the summer monsoon season (June to September) recorded from 1980 to 2014. The variability in inter-annual monsoon rainfall ranges from 20 % in northeastern regions to 65 % in southwestern regions of Pakistan. The analysis reveals that the transition of the negative and positive anomalies was not uniform in the investigated dataset. In order to acquire broad observations of the intra-seasonal variability, an objective criterion, the pre-active period, active period and post-active periods of the summer monsoon rainfall have demarcated. The analysis also reveals that the rainfall in June has no significant contribution to the increase in intra-seasonal rainfall in Pakistan. The rainfall has, however, been enhanced in the summer monsoon in August. The rainfall of September demonstrates a sharp decrease, resulting in a high variability in the summer monsoon season. A detailed examination of the intra-seasonal rainfall also reveals frequent amplitude from late July to early August. The daily normal rainfall fluctuates significantly with its maximum in the Murree hills and its minimum in the northwestern Baluchistan.

  19. Interannual rainfall variability over the Cape south coast of South Africa linked to cut-off low associated rainfall

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Engelbrecht, CJ

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The influence of cut-off low (COL) associated rainfall on interannual rainfall variability over the Cape south coast region of South Africa for the period 1979-2011 is investigated. COLs are objectively identified and tracked on daily average 500 hPa...

  20. The Dutch health insurance law: the accumulation of 30 years of reform thought.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groenewegen, P.P.; Jong, J.D. de; Delnoij, D.M.J.

    2006-01-01

    Background: The new health insurance law builds on a history of 30 years of reform plans and small steps, eventually leading to the recent reform. Methods: We use policy documents and papers from government, advisory bodies, and independent analysts to describe backgrounds of the reform and actual

  1. Early conduct problems, school achievement and later crime: findings from a 30-year longitudinal study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jakobsen, Ida Skytte; Fergusson, David; Horwood, John L.

    2012-01-01

    This study used dato from a 30-year longitudinal study to esamine the associations between early conduct problems, school achievement and later crime. The analysis showed that, even following extensive adjustment for confounding, both early conduct problems and later educational achievement made...

  2. Reflections on 30 Years of AIDS—Part 1

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2011-06-15

    Dr. Kevin DeCock, director of The Center for Global Health at CDC, reflects on 30 years of the AIDS epidemic.  Created: 6/15/2011 by National Center for Emerging Zoonotic and Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 6/16/2011.

  3. Leadership and Change in Schools: Personal Reflections over the Last 30 Years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seashore, Karen R.

    2009-01-01

    The two fields of leadership studies and school change have increasingly converged over the last 30 years. This paper reviews the origins of the intersection, and the development of research themes in three areas: The role of leaders in shaping and using organizational culture, the agency of teachers in the change process, and the importance of…

  4. "Fear of Success" Revisited: A Replication of Matina Horner's Study 30 Years Later.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engle, Jennifer

    This study updated and extended the classic "fear of success" study conducted by Matina Horner more than 30 years ago. Horner (1970) asked college students to respond to a scenario in which "Anne" or "John" is at the top of her/his medical school class. Based on the negative responses of students to "Anne,"…

  5. Bullying in Childhood, Externalizing Behaviors, and Adult Offending: Evidence from a 30-Year Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fergusson, David M.; Boden, Joseph M.; Horwood, L. John

    2014-01-01

    This study examined the developmental processes linking childhood bullying to criminal offending in adulthood, using data from a 30-year longitudinal study. The linkages between bullying in childhood and three criminal offending outcomes in adulthood were estimated both before and after control for a range of confounding factors. A series of…

  6. Philosophic Thinking in Social Work: An Analysis of 30 Years of "Social Work" Editorials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez-Brawley, Emilia E.; Zorita, Paz M-B

    2016-01-01

    This article looks at 30 years of editorial perspectives and trends in social work as a profession through the analysis of editorials from the journal "Social Work." It identifies the wax and wane of philosophic (intellectual or scholarly) questions in social work thinking in the past three decades. It defines what philosophic thinking…

  7. A randomized controlled 30 years follow up of three conventional resin composites in Class II restorations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pallesen, Ulla; van Dijken, Jan WV

    2015-01-01

    of the enamel. The chemical-cured resincomposites were placed in bulk and the light-cured in increments. One operator placed 99restorations (33 sets). The restorations were evaluated with slightly modified USPHS crite-ria at baseline, 2, 3, 5, 10, 15, 20 and 30 years. Statistical analyses were performed by the...

  8. Studies Using Single-Subject Designs in Sport Psychology: 30 Years of Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, G. L.; Thompson, K.; Regehr, K.

    2004-01-01

    A prominent feature of behavior-analytic research has been the use of single-subject designs. We examined sport psychology journals and behavioral journals published during the past 30 years, and located 40 studies using single-subject designs to assess interventions for enhancing the performance of athletes and coaches. In this paper, we…

  9. Recovering from 30 Years of War: Refugee Women and Children in Angola.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Women's Commission for Refugee Women and Children, New York, NY.

    After 30 years of war, Angola faces the challenge of creating a civil society. This report presents key findings of a visit to Angola, December 1-13, 1996, by the Women's Commission for Refugee Women and Children. The report describes conditions facing women and children affected by war in Angola, addresses the return process of refugees from…

  10. Experimental study of cathodic protection of concrete from a 30 year old bridge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Polder, R.B.; Nerland, O.C.

    1998-01-01

    An experimental study of cathodic protection (CP) was carried out with a conductive primer anode applied to specimens from a concrete bridge. The bridge was demolished after 30 years of service due to severe delaminations and reinforcement corrosion. Four specimens of approximately 1 m2 each were ma

  11. Studies Using Single-Subject Designs in Sport Psychology: 30 Years of Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, G. L.; Thompson, K.; Regehr, K.

    2004-01-01

    A prominent feature of behavior-analytic research has been the use of single-subject designs. We examined sport psychology journals and behavioral journals published during the past 30 years, and located 40 studies using single-subject designs to assess interventions for enhancing the performance of athletes and coaches. In this paper, we…

  12. A multiplier-based method of generating stochastic areal rainfall from point rainfalls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ndiritu, J. G.

    Catchment modelling for water resources assessment is still mainly based on rain gauge measurements as these are more easily available and cover longer periods than radar and satellite-based measurements. Rain gauges however measure the rain falling on an extremely small proportion of the catchment and the areal rainfall obtained from these point measurements are consequently substantially uncertain. These uncertainties in areal rainfall estimation are generally ignored and the need to assess their impact on catchment modelling and water resources assessment is therefore imperative. A method that stochastically generates daily areal rainfall from point rainfall using multiplicative perturbations as a means of dealing with these uncertainties is developed and tested on the Berg catchment in the Western Cape of South Africa. The differences in areal rainfall obtained by alternately omitting some of the rain gauges are used to obtain a population of plausible multiplicative perturbations. Upper bounds on the applicable perturbations are set to prevent the generation of unrealistically large rainfall and to obtain unbiased stochastic rainfall. The perturbations within the set bounds are then fitted into probability density functions to stochastically generate the perturbations to impose on areal rainfall. By using 100 randomly-initialized calibrations of the AWBM catchment model and Sequent Peak Analysis, the effects of incorporating areal rainfall uncertainties on storage-yield-reliability analysis are assessed. Incorporating rainfall uncertainty is found to reduce the required storage by up to 20%. Rainfall uncertainty also increases flow-duration variability considerably and reduces the median flow-duration values by an average of about 20%.

  13. 30 years later: Social Representations about AIDS and sexual practices of rural towns residents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furtado, Francisca Marina de Souza Freire; Santos, José Anderson Galdino; Loredanna, Stedile; Araújo, Eunice; Saldanha, Ana Alayde Werba; Silva, Josevânia da

    2016-06-01

    In the 30 years of the AIDS pandemic in Brazil, it is recognized the HIV virus internalization of the phenomenon as a challenge to care and current health policies. In this sense, it aimed to verify sex practices and social representations that rural towns residents have about the disease. Attended by 789 people, men and women, between 18 and 90 years old, residents in 41 towns with fewer than 11,000 inhabitants in the state of Paraiba / Brazil. Data were collected by a questionnaire and the free association of words test. The results showed low concern about disease, perception of invulnerability to HIV infection and not using condoms during sexual intercourse, and confidence in the major reason related partner. Also showed endure derogatory and stereotypical representations, revealing that still persist in rural areas, beliefs and representations concerning the beginning of the epidemic. From these findings, it is possible to point out deficiencies in the care provided by the health services in these localities, which may result in increased vulnerability of this population to diseases, so there is the need to intensify information campaigns and intervention. The results reveal the existence of three different types of modes of learning health literacy skills in informal context: : i) learning that takes place in action, in achieving daily tasks; ii) learning processes that result from problem solving; iii) learning that occurs in an unplanned manner, resulting from accidental circumstances and, in some cases, devoid of intentionality. Nos 30 anos da pandemia da Aids no Brasil, reconhece-se o fenômeno da interiorização do vírus HIV como um desafio ao cuidado e às politicas de saúde atuais. Neste sentido, objetivou-se conhecer práticas sexuais e as representações sociais que residentes de cidades rurais têm acerca da doença. Participaram 789 pessoas, homens e mulheres, entre 18 e 90 anos de idade, residentes em 41 cidades com menos de 11.000 habitantes

  14. Associations of Linear Growth and Relative Weight Gain in Early Life with Human Capital at 30 Years of Age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horta, Bernardo Lessa; Victora, Cesar G; de Mola, Christian Loret; Quevedo, Luciana; Pinheiro, Ricardo Tavares; Gigante, Denise P; Motta, Janaina Vieira Dos Santos; Barros, Fernando C

    2017-03-01

    To assess the associations of birthweight, nutritional status and growth in childhood with IQ, years of schooling, and monthly income at 30 years of age. In 1982, the 5 maternity hospitals in Pelotas, Brazil, were visited daily and 5914 live births were identified. At 30 years of age, 3701 subjects were interviewed. IQ, years of schooling, and income were measured. On average, their IQ was 98 points, they had 11.4 years of schooling, and the mean income was 1593 reais. After controlling for several confounders, birthweight and attained weight and length/height for age at 2 and 4 years of age were associated positively with IQ, years of years of schooling, and income, except for the association between length at 2 years of age and income. Conditional growth analyses were used to disentangle linear growth from relative weight gain. Conditional length at 2 years of age ≥1 SD score above the expected value, compared with ≥1 SD below the expected, was associated with an increase in IQ (4.28 points; 95% CI, 2.66-5.90), years of schooling (1.58 years; 95% CI, 1.08-2.08), and monthly income (303 Brazilian reais; 95% CI, 44-563). Relative weight gain, above what would be expected from linear growth, was not associated with the outcomes. In a middle-income setting, promotion of linear growth in the first 1000 days of life is likely to increase adult IQ, years of schooling, and income. Weight gain in excess of what is expected from linear growth does not seem to improve human capital. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. A rainfall simulation model for agricultural development in Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Sayedur Rahman

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available A rainfall simulation model based on a first-order Markov chain has been developed to simulate the annual variation in rainfall amount that is observed in Bangladesh. The model has been tested in the Barind Tract of Bangladesh. Few significant differences were found between the actual and simulated seasonal, annual and average monthly. The distribution of number of success is asymptotic normal distribution. When actual and simulated daily rainfall data were used to drive a crop simulation model, there was no significant difference of rice yield response. The results suggest that the rainfall simulation model perform adequately for many applications.

  16. U.S. Daily Climate Normals (1981-2010)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. Daily Climate Normals for 1981 to 2010 are 30-year averages of meteorological parameters for thousands of U.S. stations located across the 50 states, as...

  17. Rainfall simulation in education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Piet; Baartman, Jantiene; Gooren, Harm; Keesstra, Saskia

    2016-04-01

    Rainfall simulation has become an important method for the assessment of soil erosion and soil hydrological processes. For students, rainfall simulation offers an year-round, attractive and active way of experiencing water erosion, while not being dependent on (outdoors) weather conditions. Moreover, using rainfall simulation devices, they can play around with different conditions, including rainfall duration, intensity, soil type, soil cover, soil and water conservation measures, etc. and evaluate their effect on erosion and sediment transport. Rainfall simulators differ in design and scale. At Wageningen University, both BSc and MSc student of the curriculum 'International Land and Water Management' work with different types of rainfall simulation devices in three courses: - A mini rainfall simulator (0.0625m2) is used in the BSc level course 'Introduction to Land Degradation and Remediation'. Groups of students take the mini rainfall simulator with them to a nearby field location and test it for different soil types, varying from clay to more sandy, slope angles and vegetation or litter cover. The groups decide among themselves which factors they want to test and they compare their results and discuss advantage and disadvantage of the mini-rainfall simulator. - A medium sized rainfall simulator (0.238 m2) is used in the MSc level course 'Sustainable Land and Water Management', which is a field practical in Eastern Spain. In this course, a group of students has to develop their own research project and design their field measurement campaign using the transportable rainfall simulator. - Wageningen University has its own large rainfall simulation laboratory, in which a 15 m2 rainfall simulation facility is available for research. In the BSc level course 'Land and Water Engineering' Student groups will build slopes in the rainfall simulator in specially prepared containers. Aim is to experience the behaviour of different soil types or slope angles when (heavy) rain

  18. Rainfall Downscaling Conditional on Upper-air Atmospheric Predictors: Improved Assessment of Rainfall Statistics in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langousis, Andreas; Mamalakis, Antonis; Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino

    2015-04-01

    To improve the level skill of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) in reproducing the statistics of rainfall at a basin level and at hydrologically relevant temporal scales (e.g. daily), two types of statistical approaches have been suggested. One is the statistical correction of climate model rainfall outputs using historical series of precipitation. The other is the use of stochastic models of rainfall to conditionally simulate precipitation series, based on large-scale atmospheric predictors produced by climate models (e.g. geopotential height, relative vorticity, divergence, mean sea level pressure). The latter approach, usually referred to as statistical rainfall downscaling, aims at reproducing the statistical character of rainfall, while accounting for the effects of large-scale atmospheric circulation (and, therefore, climate forcing) on rainfall statistics. While promising, statistical rainfall downscaling has not attracted much attention in recent years, since the suggested approaches involved complex (i.e. subjective or computationally intense) identification procedures of the local weather, in addition to demonstrating limited success in reproducing several statistical features of rainfall, such as seasonal variations, the distributions of dry and wet spell lengths, the distribution of the mean rainfall intensity inside wet periods, and the distribution of rainfall extremes. In an effort to remedy those shortcomings, Langousis and Kaleris (2014) developed a statistical framework for simulation of daily rainfall intensities conditional on upper air variables, which accurately reproduces the statistical character of rainfall at multiple time-scales. Here, we study the relative performance of: a) quantile-quantile (Q-Q) correction of climate model rainfall products, and b) the statistical downscaling scheme of Langousis and Kaleris (2014), in reproducing the statistical structure of rainfall, as well as rainfall extremes, at a

  19. Revisiting 30 years of Biofunctionalization and Surface Chemistry of Inorganic Nanoparticles for Nanomedicine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conde, João; Dias, Jorge; Grazú, Valeria; Moros, Maria; Baptista, Pedro; De La Fuente, Jesús

    2014-07-01

    In the last 30 years we have assisted to a massive advance of nanomaterials in material science. Nanomaterials and structures, in addition to their small size, have properties that differ from those of larger bulk materials, making them ideal for a host of novel applications. The spread of nanotechnology in the last years has been due to the improvement of synthesis and characterization methods on the nanoscale, a field rich in new physical phenomena and synthetic opportunities. In fact, the development of functional nanoparticles has progressed exponentially over the past two decades. This work aims to extensively review 30 years of different strategies of surface modification and functionalization of noble metal (gold) nanoparticles, magnetic nanocrystals and semiconductor nanoparticles, such as quantum dots. The aim of this review is not only to provide in-depth insights into the different biofunctionalization and characterization methods, but also to give an overview of possibilities and limitations of the available nanoparticles.

  20. 30 years of reform and opening up:experience and characteristics

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈佳贵

    2008-01-01

    This year marks the 30th anniversary of China’s reform and opening-up program,which has brought about unprecedented achievements in the country’s three decades of rapid development. This issue contains three articles on the theme of this 30th anniversary,presenting insights on the past and present and prospects for the coming period. The current issue includes "China’s 30 years of reform and opening up:experiences and characteristics" by Prof. Chen Jiagui;"30 years of prosperity in China’s non-state economy" by Prof. Liu Yingqiu; and "The development of an open economy in China" by Prof. Pei Changhong. These articles evaluate the policies of the past three decades from different angles and looking at different facets,yet each with theoretical as well as practical signif icance. We believe that these historical reflections will steer China on an even more successful path of future reform and opening.

  1. Revisiting 30 years of Biofunctionalization and Surface Chemistry of Inorganic Nanoparticles for Nanomedicine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    João eConde

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available In the last 30 years we have assisted to a massive advance of nanomaterials in material science. Nanomaterials and structures, in addition to their small size, have properties that differ from those of larger bulk materials, making them ideal for a host of novel applications. The spread of nanotechnology in the last years has been due to the improvement of synthesis and characterization methods on the nanoscale, a field rich in new physical phenomena and synthetic opportunities. In fact, the development of functional nanoparticles has progressed exponentially over the past two decades. This work aims to extensively review 30 years of different strategies of surface modification and functionalization of noble metal (gold nanoparticles, magnetic nanocrystals and semiconductor nanoparticles, such as quantum dots. The aim of this review is not only to provide in-depth insights into the different biofunctionalization and characterization methods, but also to give an overview of possibilities and limitations of the available nanoparticles.

  2. An empirical analysis of issues and trends in manufacturing productivity through a 30-year literature review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee, Choonghyun

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper analysed the keywords in manufacturing productivity- related studies over the last 30 years to consider the change in the concept of ‘productivity’, a longstanding and important factor in studies about manufacturing. After first identifying 110,269 keywords in related research through 11,237 academic papers, we narrowed them down to 97 in nine categories by applying certain criteria. Most of the previous studies dealt with productivity in the context of corporate data; but this study investigated the change in the concept of manufacturing productivity by analysing the keywords of many studies of this concept. We classified the 30 years from 1980 to 2009 into five eras of productivity, according to their representative characteristics, using the analysed keywords. We expect that this study will serve as a practical guideline for managers in industry, and as an academic foundation for future research into productivity.

  3. The measles epidemic trend over the past 30 years in a central district in Shanghai, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Jie; Shen, Bing; Xiong, JianJing; Lu, Yihan; Jiang, Qingwu

    2017-01-01

    Measles vaccination over the past 50 years has greatly reduced the incidence of measles. However, measles among migrants and the resulting changes in epidemiological characteristics have brought new challenges to the elimination of measles. We aim to describe the measles epidemic trend over the past 30 years in a central district in Shanghai, China. The present study was conducted in the Jing'an District, which is located in the center of Shanghai. Based on historical surveillance data of measles, we calculated the incidence of measles among local residents and migrants separately. Next, we classified all of the cases of the measles among local residents between 1984 and 2015 into 8 age groups and 5 birth cohorts. Finally, we calculated the measles incidence in each time period by the different age groups and birth cohorts, to understand the measles epidemic trend over past 30 years in the Jing'an District. A total of 103 cases of measles were reported from the Jing'an District, Shanghai, from 1984 to 2015. For infants less than 1 year of age and adults over 30 years of age, the incidence of measles continued to rise over the past 30 years. For a specific birth cohort, the incidence of measles after measles vaccination declined initially, and was then followed by a rebound. The incidence of measles in older adults and infants increased in some developed regions, which slows the process of measles elimination. This suggested that the population immunity against measles after measles vaccination would gradually reduce with time. We recommend supplemental immunization against measles in adults in order to reduce the immunity decline, especially for migrants.

  4. Eumycetoma by Madurella mycetomatis with 30 years of evolution: therapeutic challenge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampaio, Felipe Maurício Soeiro; Galhardo, Maria Clara Gutierrez; Quintella, Leonardo Pereira; Souza, Paulo Roberto Cotrim de; Coelho, Janice Mary Chicarino de Oliveira; Valle, Antonio Carlos Francesconi do

    2013-01-01

    We report a case of eumycetoma by Madurella mycetomatis on the buttocks and thighs in an adult immunocompetent patient, diagnosed after 30 years of clinical development. He was treated over four years with fluconazol and itraconazol associated with five times surgical excisions of subcutaneous nodules. At the eighth year of follow-up, one nodule recurred on the right infragluteal region, which was excised surgically and has remained asymptomatic ever since.

  5. Cervical cancer screening among women aged 18-30 years - United States, 2000-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-04

    Screening women for cervical cancer can save lives. However, among young women, cervical cancer is relatively rare, and too-frequent screening can lead to high costs and adverse events associated with overtreatment. Before 2012, cervical cancer screening guidelines of the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG), American Cancer Society (ACS), and U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) differed on age to start and how often to get screened for cervical cancer. In 2012, however, all three organizations recommended that 1) screening by Papanicolau (Pap) test should not be used for women aged <21 years, regardless of initiation of sexual activity, and 2) a screening interval of 3 years should be maintained for women aged 21-30 years. ACS and ACOG explicitly recommend against yearly screening. To assess trends in Pap testing before the new guidelines were introduced, CDC analyzed 2000-2010 data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) for women aged 18-30 years. CDC found that, among women aged 18-21 years, the percentage reporting never having been screened increased from 26.3% in 2000 to 47.5% in 2010, and the proportion reporting having had a Pap test in the past 12 months decreased from 65.0% to 41.5%. Among those aged 22-30 years, the proportion reporting having had a Pap test within the preceding 12 months decreased from 78.1% to 67.0%. These findings showed that Pap testing practices for young women have been moving toward the latest guidelines. However, the data also showed a concerning trend: among women aged 22-30 years, who should be screened every 3 years, the proportion who reported never having had a Pap test increased from 6.6% to 9.0%. More effort is needed to promote acceptance of the latest evidence-based recommendations so that all women receive the maximal benefits of cervical cancer screening.

  6. Reflections on 30 Years of AIDS—Part 2

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2011-06-15

    Dr. James Curran, Dean of the Rollins School of Public Health and Co-Director of Emory’s Center for AIDS Research, and Dr. Harold Jaffe, CDC’s Associate Director for Science, reflect on 30 years of the AIDS epidemic.  Created: 6/15/2011 by National Center for Emerging Zoonotic and Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 6/20/2011.

  7. Adequacy of satellite derived rainfall data for stream flow modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Artan, G.; Gadain, Hussein; Smith, Jody L.; Asante, Kwasi; Bandaragoda, C.J.; Verdin, J.P.

    2007-01-01

    Floods are the most common and widespread climate-related hazard on Earth. Flood forecasting can reduce the death toll associated with floods. Satellites offer effective and economical means for calculating areal rainfall estimates in sparsely gauged regions. However, satellite-based rainfall estimates have had limited use in flood forecasting and hydrologic stream flow modeling because the rainfall estimates were considered to be unreliable. In this study we present the calibration and validation results from a spatially distributed hydrologic model driven by daily satellite-based estimates of rainfall for sub-basins of the Nile and Mekong Rivers. The results demonstrate the usefulness of remotely sensed precipitation data for hydrologic modeling when the hydrologic model is calibrated with such data. However, the remotely sensed rainfall estimates cannot be used confidently with hydrologic models that are calibrated with rain gauge measured rainfall, unless the model is recalibrated. ?? Springer Science+Business Media, Inc. 2007.

  8. Long term results (15-30 years) of surgical repair of aortic coarctation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Presbitero, P; Demarie, D; Villani, M; Perinetto, E A; Riva, G; Orzan, F; Bobbio, M; Morea, M; Brusca, A

    1987-01-01

    The late outcome in 226 patients who survived surgical repair of aortic coarctation was assessed 15-30 years after operation. Twenty six patients died during the follow up mainly from causes related to surgical repair or to associated cardiovascular anomalies. The survival rates of patients operated on between the ages of four and 20 years are 97%, 97%, 92% at 10, 20, and 30 years after operation. For patients operated on after the age of 20 the corresponding rates are 93%, 85%, and 68%. This difference is statistically significant from the fifteenth year of follow up onwards. The survival of patients operated on before the age of 20 is not significantly different from that of a comparable general Italian population. Recoarctation occurred in only 8% of patients who had end to end anastomosis, whereas it occurred in 35% of those who had other types of operation. Two thirds of the patients were hypertensive at the last visit. The actuarial curve shows that blood pressure was normal in most patients 5-10 years after operation, but 30 years after coarctation repair only 32% of patients are expected to be normotensive. Thus early repair of aortic coarctation appears to improve long term survival. Intervention in older patients and when blood pressure is high seem to be the most important predictors of late hypertension. PMID:3593616

  9. Daily rainfall variability at a local scale (1,000 ha, in Piracicaba, SP, Brazil, and its implications on soil water recharge Variabilidade diária da chuva em uma escala local (1000 ha em Piracicaba, SP, e suas implicações na recarga da água do solo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Reichardt

    1995-04-01

    Full Text Available Daily rainfall variability at a local scale (1,000 ha was studied at Piracicaba, SP, Brazil, for the period of one year (1993-1994, in order to better understand the process of soil water recharge. Coefficients of variation of daily data for ten observation points varied from 2.2 to 169.3% and the variability was independent of rain type, i.e. whether convective, frontal or of other origin. Data were not related to separation distances between observation points and it is concluded that one observation point does not represent areas as far as 1,000 to 2,500 m apart, for daily, monthly or even quarterly averages. Yearly totals for the ten observation points presented a coefficient of variation as low as 3.06%, indicating that all points can replace each other in annual terms.A variabilidade diária da chuva em uma escala local (1000 ha foi estudada em Piracicaba, SP, Brasil, pelo período de um ano (1993-1994. Os coeficientes de variação de dados diários para dez pontos de observação variaram de 2,2 a 169,3 % e a variabilidade independeu do tipo de chuva, isto é, se convectiva, frontal ou de outra origem. Os dados não apresentaram correlação com a distância entre os pontos de observação e concluiu-se que uni ponto de observação não representa áreas distantes dele de 1000 a 2500 m, para médias diárias, mensais ou mesmo trimestrais. Os totais anuais dos dez pontos apresentaram um coeficiente de variação de apenas 3,06 %, indicando que cada ponto pode representar qualquer outro em termos anuais.

  10. Daily Water Use in Nine Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maidment, David R.; Miaou, Shaw-Pin

    1986-06-01

    Transfer functions are used to model the short-term response of daily municipal water use to rainfall and air temperature variations. Daily water use data from nine cities are studied, three cities each from Florida, Pennsylvania, and Texas. The dynamic response of water use to rainfall and air temperature is similar across the cities within each State; in addition the responses of the Texas and Florida cities are very similar to one another while the response of the Pennsylvania cities is more sensitive to air temperature and less to rainfall. There is little impact of city size on the response functions. The response of water use to rainfall depends first on the occurrence of rainfall and second on its magnitude. The occurrence of a rainfall more than 0.05 in./day (0.13 cm/day) causes a drop in the seasonal component of water use one day later that averages 38% for the Texas cities, 42% for the Florida cities, and 7% for the Pennsylvania cities. In Austin, Texas, a spatially averaged rainfall series shows a clearer relationship with water use than does rainfall data from a single gage. There is a nonlinear response of water use to air temperature changes with no response for daily maximum air temperatures between 40° and 70°F (4-21°C) an increase in water use with air temperature beyond 70°F; above 85°-90°F (29°-32°C) water use increases 3-5 times more per degree than below that limit in Texas and Florida. The model resulting from these studies can be used for daily water use forecasting and water conservation analysis.

  11. Un método para el análisis de frecuencia regional de lluvias máximas diarias: aplicación en los Andes bolivianos A method for regional frequency analysis of maximum daily rainfall: application in the Bolivian Andes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Antonio Luna Vera

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Se presenta un análisis de frecuencia regional con series de lluvia diaria máxima anual para una zona con escasa información. La compleja orografía de montañas y el altiplano de una región en la cordillera de Los Andes, Bolivia, produce diferentes patrones de lluvia diaria. La combinación de los Momentos-L y el análisis de conglomerados resultan adecuados para identificarlas regiones homogéneas de las series máximas anuales. El trabajo desarrollado define 4 regiones homogéneas. La región 1 comprende las estaciones ubicadas en el altiplano y la zona Sur Este. La región 2 abarca el altiplano central y la cuenca del Río La Paz, compuesto por cuencas interandinas. La 3 delimita claramente las estaciones de la zona tropical amazónica; y la 4 está compuesta por estaciones ubicadas en las montañas del Norte. Se probaron diversas distribuciones para el análisis regional de frecuencias aplicando la técnica de estaciones-año; los mejores resultados se obtuvieron con las funciones Gumbel y Doble Gumbel. Finalmente se expresan las ecuaciones regionales y se comparan con algunas series puntuales de cada región, con el objeto de verificar la aplicabilidad de la metodología propuesta para fines de diseño hidrológico.A regional frequency analysis of daily annual maximum rainfall series for an area with poor information is presented. The complex topography mountains and the highlands region in the Cordillera de Los Andes, Bolivia, produce different patterns of daily rainfall. The combination of L-Moments and cluster analysis are adequate to identify the homogeneous regions of the annual maximum series. The work defines 4 homogeneous regions. Region 1 includes the stations located in the highlands and south-east. Region 2 covers the central highlands and La Paz River Basin, consisting of inter-Andean basins. Region 3 clearly defines the Amazonian basin stations and 4 is composed of stations located in the northern mountains. Different

  12. The relationship between the Guinea Highlands and the West African offshore rainfall maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, H. L.; Young, G. S.; Evans, J. L.; Fuentes, J. D.; Núñez Ocasio, K. M.

    2017-01-01

    Satellite rainfall estimates reveal a consistent rainfall maximum off the West African coast during the monsoon season. An analysis of 16 years of rainfall in the monsoon season is conducted to explore the drivers of such copious amounts of rainfall. Composites of daily rainfall and midlevel meridional winds centered on the days with maximum rainfall show that the day with the heaviest rainfall follows the strongest midlevel northerlies but coincides with peak low-level moisture convergence. Rain type composites show that convective rain dominates the study region. The dominant contribution to the offshore rainfall maximum is convective development driven by the enhancement of upslope winds near the Guinea Highlands. The enhancement in the upslope flow is closely related to African easterly waves propagating off the continent that generate low-level cyclonic vorticity and convergence. Numerical simulations reproduce the observed rainfall maximum and indicate that it weakens if the African topography is reduced.

  13. Prediction Research of Climate Change Trends over North China in the Future 30 Years

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Yanxiang; YAN Jinghui; WU Tongwen; GUO Yufu; CHEN Lihua; WANG Jianping

    2008-01-01

    A simulation of climate change trends over North China in the past 50 years and future 30 years was performed with the actual greenhouse gas concentration and IPCC SRES B2 scenario concentration by IAP/LASG GOALS 4.0 (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land system coupled model), developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG),Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). In order to validate the model,the modern climate during 1951-2000 was first simulated by the GOALS model with the actual greenhouse gas concentration, and the simulation results were compared with observed data. The simulation results basically reproduce the lower temperature from the 1960s to mid-1970s and the warming from the 1980sfor the globe and Northern Hemisphere, and better the important cold (1950-1976) and warm (1977-2000)periods in the past 50 years over North China. The correlation coefficient is 0.34 between simulations and observations (significant at a more than 0.05 confidence level). The range of winter temperature departures for North China is between those for the eastern and western China's Mainland. Meanwhile, the summer precipitation trend turning around the 1980s is also successfully simulated. The climate change trends in the future 30 years were simulated with the CO2 concentration under IPCC SRES-B2 emission scenario.The results show that, in the future 30 years, winter temperature will keep a warming trend in North China and increase by about 2.5℃ relative to climate mean (1960-1990). Meanwhile, summer precipitation will obviously increase in North China and decrease in South China, displaying a south-deficit-north-excessive pattern of precipitation.

  14. Pediatric Vascular Surgery Review with a 30-Year-Experience in a Tertiary Referral Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Min, Seung-Kee; Cho, Sungsin; Kim, Hyun-Young; Kim, Sang Joon

    2017-01-01

    Pediatric vascular disease is rare, and remains a big challenge to vascular surgeons. In contrast to adults, surgery for pediatric vascular disease is complicated by issues related to small size, future growth, and availability of suitable vascular conduit. During the last 30 years, 131 major vascular operations were performed in a tertiary referral center, Seoul National University Hospital, including aortoiliac aneurysm, acute or chronic arterial occlusion, renovascular hypertension, portal venous hypertension, trauma, tumor invasion to major abdominal vessels, and others. Herein we review on the important pediatric vascular diseases and share our clinical experiences on these rare diseases. PMID:28690995

  15. Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Over the Past 30 Years: A Global and Dynamic Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Liguang; Wang, Bin; Braun, Scott A.

    2006-01-01

    The hurricane season of 2005 was the busiest on record and Hurricane Katrina (2005) is believed to be the costliest hurricane in U. S. history. There are growing concerns regarding whether this increased tropical cyclone activity is a result of global warming, as suggested by Emanuel(2005) and Webster et al. (2005), or just a natural oscillation (Goldenberg et al. 2001). This study examines the changes in tropical cyclone intensity to see what were really responsible for the changes in tropical cyclone activity over the past 30 years. Since the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) warming also leads to the response of atmospheric circulation, which is not solely determined by the local SST warming, this study suggests that it is better to take the tropical cyclone activities in the North Atlantic (NA), western North Pacific (WNP) and eastern North Pacific (ENP) basins as a whole when searching for the influence of the global-scale SST warming on tropical cyclone intensity. Over the past 30 years, as the tropical SST increased by about 0.5 C, the linear trends indicate 6%, 16% and 15% increases in the overall average intensity and lifetime and the annual frequency. Our analysis shows that the increased annual destructiveness of tropical cyclones reported by Emanuel(2005) resulted mainly from the increases in the average lifetime and annual frequency in the NA basin and from the increases in the average intensity and lifetime in the WNP basin, while the annual destructiveness in the ENP basin generally decreased over the past 30 years. The changes in the proportion of intense tropical cyclones reported by Webster et a1 (2005) were due mainly to the fact that increasing tropical cyclones took the tracks that favor for the development of intense tropical cyclones in the NA and WNP basins over the past 30 years. The dynamic influence associated with the tropical SST warming can lead to the impact of global warming on tropical cyclone intensity that may be very

  16. Orbital Extension of a Giant Ethmoidal Sinus Osteoma in a 30-Year-old Female

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esmat Karbassi

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Osteoma is a benign tumor rarely found in the paranasal sinuses.   Case Report: A 30-year-old female presented with an 8-month history of proptosis of the right eye that was progressing slowly. She was diagnosed with ethmoid osteoma and managed with collaborative surgery at the ophthalmology and otolaryngology departments. After surgery, the patient suffered visual loss that was managed medically. The surgical steps and protocol used for safe removal are discussed in the report.    Conclusion: Management of a giaint osteoma extending to orbital tissue needs meticulous dissection through open approach and collaborative surgery by otolaryngologist and ophtalmologist

  17. 30 years of Physics Education Research at the University of Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaffer, Peter S.

    2017-01-01

    Over the past 30 years, members of the UW Physics Education Group have examined student learning in courses serving a wide range of populations. Most of the focus has been on elementary, middle, and high school teachers and students in introductory university physics courses, but more recently, the effort has expanded to include physics majors in upper-division courses on quantum mechanics and electrodynamics. In general, the group has taken a practical approach that focuses on identifying instructional strategies that are effective at promoting conceptual understanding and student reasoning ability. Examples will be drawn from across these courses to illustrate common themes and connections.

  18. Clostridium difficile 30 years on: what has, or has not, changed and why?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerding, Dale N

    2009-03-01

    The report of clindamycin-associated colitis in 1974 by Tedesco et al. [Ann Intern Med 81: 429-33] stimulated an intense search for the cause of this severe complication of antibiotic use. The search culminated in early 1978 in the publication of a series of papers within 3 months that identified the causative agent as Clostridium difficile and its accompanying toxins. Thirty years later we are in the midst of a resurgence of C. difficile infection (CDI) in North America and Europe that is greater than ever previously reported and for which morbidity and mortality appear to be higher than ever seen in the past. The purpose of this review is to highlight the discoveries of the past 30 years that, in my view, have brought us to our current level of understanding of the pathogenesis, prevention and treatment of CDI, and to suggest why a disease thought to be managed so well 30 years ago could now be causing more morbidity and mortality than ever before. In the 21st century the focus should be on better understanding the relationship between the C. difficile organism and the host at the mucosal level, so that biotherapeutic and vaccine strategies for the prevention of CDI can be developed.

  19. Personality characteristics in childhood and outcomes in adulthood: findings from a 30 year longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newton-Howes, Giles; Horwood, John; Mulder, Roger

    2015-04-01

    Personality has been associated with a variety of outcomes in adulthood. Most of the literature related to mental state disorder and personality is cross sectional. Data from more than 900 participants of the Christchurch Health and Development Study (CHDS) were examined. Extroversion and neuroticism were measured at 14 years old and social outcomes at age 30. The presence of mental state disorder between 18-30 years old was identified. Multiple potential confounders in childhood were included in the analysis. Neuroticism at fourteen was significantly correlated with multiple environmental exposures whereas extroversion had relatively few associations. Regression analysis found that neuroticism at 14 predicted depression, anxiety, suicidality and overall mental health problems at 30 as well as poor self-esteem but not relationship quality or wellbeing. Extroversion at 14 predicted alcohol and drug dependence and overall mental health problems, but also predicted improved social wellbeing, self-esteem and relationship quality at 30. In this analysis extroversion interacts with significantly fewer environmental factors than neuroticism in predicting adult outcomes. Neuroticism at 14 years predicts poorer mental health outcomes in adulthood. Extroversion in childhood may be a protective factor in the development of mental disorder other than alcohol use disorders. Extroverted adolescents have more positive social outcomes at 30 years. © The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists 2015.

  20. Gender trends in authorship in oral and maxillofacial surgery literature: A 30-year analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nkenke, Emeka; Seemann, Rudolf; Vairaktaris, Elefterios; Schaller, Hans-Günter; Rohde, Maximilian; Stelzle, Florian; Knipfer, Christian

    2015-07-01

    The aim of the present study was to perform a bibliometric analysis of the gender distribution of first and senior authorships in important oral and maxillofacial journals over the 30-year period from 1980 to 2010. Articles published in three representative oral and maxillofacial surgery journals were selected. The years 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2010 were chosen as representative points in time for article selection. Original research, case reports, technical notes, and reviews were included in the analysis. Case reports and technical notes were pooled in one group. For each article, the gender of the first author as well as that of the senior author was determined, based on the inspection of their first name. The type of article was determined and the country of origin of the article was documented. A total 1412 articles were subjected to the data analysis. A significant increase in female authorship in oral and maxillofacial surgery could be identified over the chosen 30-year period. However, the number of publications by male authors was still significantly higher at all points of time, exceeding those of female authors by at least 3.8 fold in 2010. As there is a trend towards feminization of medicine and dentistry, the results of the present study may serve as the basis for further analysis of the current situation, and the identification of necessary actions to accelerate the closure of the gender gap in publishing in oral and maxillofacial surgery.

  1. Preschoolers’ Delay of Gratification Predicts Their Body Mass 30 Years Later

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlam, Tanya R.; Wilson, Nicole L.; Shoda, Yuichi; Mischel, Walter; Ayduk, Ozlem

    2012-01-01

    Objective To assess whether preschoolers’ performance on a delay of gratification task would predict their body mass index (BMI) 30 years later. Study design In the late 1960s/early 1970s, 4-year-olds from a university-affiliated preschool completed the classic delay of gratification task. As part of a longitudinal study, a subset (N = 164, 57% women) completed a follow-up approximately 30 years later and self-reported their height and weight. Data were analyzed using hierarchical regression. Results Performance on the delay of gratification task accounted for a significant portion of variance in BMI (4%, p delayed gratification predicted a .2 point reduction in BMI in adulthood. Conclusions Delaying gratification longer at 4 years of age was associated with having a lower BMI three decades later. The study is, however, correlational, and it is therefore not possible to make causal inferences regarding the relation between delay duration and BMI. Identifying children with greater difficulty delaying gratification could help detect children at risk of becoming overweight or obese. Interventions that improve self-control in young children have been developed and might reduce children’s risk of becoming overweight while having positive effects on other outcomes important to society. PMID:22906511

  2. Preschoolers' delay of gratification predicts their body mass 30 years later.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlam, Tanya R; Wilson, Nicole L; Shoda, Yuichi; Mischel, Walter; Ayduk, Ozlem

    2013-01-01

    To assess whether preschoolers' performance on a delay of gratification task would predict their body mass index (BMI) 30 years later. In the late 1960s/early 1970s, 4-year-olds from a university-affiliated preschool completed the classic delay of gratification task. As part of a longitudinal study, a subset (n = 164; 57% women) were followed up approximately 30 years later and self-reported their height and weight. Data were analyzed using hierarchical regression. Performance on the delay of gratification task accounted for a significant portion of variance in BMI (4%; P delayed gratification predicted a 0.2-point reduction in BMI in adulthood. Longer delay of gratification at age 4 years was associated with a lower BMI 3 decades later. Because this study is correlational, it is not possible to make causal inferences regarding the relationship between delay duration and BMI. Identifying children with greater difficulty in delaying gratification could help detect children at risk of becoming overweight or obese. Interventions that improve self-control in young children have been developed and might reduce children's risk of becoming overweight and also have positive effects on other outcomes important to society. Copyright © 2013 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Pattern-oriented memory interpolation of sparse historical rainfall records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matos, J. P.; Cohen Liechti, T.; Portela, M. M.; Schleiss, A. J.

    2014-03-01

    The pattern-oriented memory (POM) is a novel historical rainfall interpolation method that explicitly takes into account the time dimension in order to interpolate areal rainfall maps. The method is based on the idea that rainfall patterns exist and can be identified over a certain area by means of non-linear regressions. Having been previously benchmarked with a vast array of interpolation methods using proxy satellite data under different time and space availabilities, in the scope of the present contribution POM is applied to rain gauge data in order to produce areal rainfall maps. Tested over the Zambezi River Basin for the period from 1979 to 1997 (accurate satellite rainfall estimates based on spaceborne instruments are not available for dates prior to 1998), the novel pattern-oriented memory historical interpolation method has revealed itself as a better alternative than Kriging or Inverse Distance Weighing in the light of a Monte Carlo cross-validation procedure. Superior in most metrics to the other tested interpolation methods, in terms of the Pearson correlation coefficient and bias the accuracy of POM's historical interpolation results are even comparable with that of recent satellite rainfall products. The new method holds the possibility of calculating detailed and performing daily areal rainfall estimates, even in the case of sparse rain gauging grids. Besides their performance, the similarity to satellite rainfall estimates inherent to POM interpolations can contribute to substantially extend the length of the rainfall series used in hydrological models and water availability studies in remote areas.

  4. Associations of education with 30 year life course blood pressure trajectories: Framingham Offspring Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao Yongling

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Education is inversely associated with cardiovascular disease incidence in developed countries. Blood pressure may be an explanatory biological mechanism. However few studies have investigated educational gradients in longitudinal blood pressure trajectories, particularly over substantial proportions of the life course. Study objectives were to determine whether low education was associated with increased blood pressure from multiple longitudinal assessments over 30 years. Furthermore, we aimed to separate antecedent effects of education, and other related factors, that might have caused baseline differences in blood pressure, from potential long-term effects of education on post-baseline blood pressure changes. Methods The study examined 3890 participants of the Framingham Offspring Study (mean age 36.7 years, 52.0% females at baseline from 1971 through 2001 at up to 7 separate examinations using multivariable mixed linear models. Results Mixed linear models demonstrated that mean systolic blood pressure (SBP over 30 years was higher for participants with ≤12 vs. ≥17 years education after adjusting for age (3.26 mmHg, 95% CI: 1.46, 5.05 in females, 2.26 mmHg, 95% CI: 0.87, 3.66 in males. Further adjustment for conventional covariates (antihypertensive medication, smoking, body mass index and alcohol reduced differences in females and males (2.86, 95% CI: 1.13, 4.59, and 1.25, 95% CI: -0.16, 2.66 mmHg, respectively. Additional analyses adjusted for baseline SBP, to evaluate if there may be educational contributions to post-baseline SBP. In analyses adjusted for age and baseline SBP, females with ≤12 years education had 2.69 (95% CI: 1.09, 4.30 mmHg higher SBP over follow-up compared with ≥17 years education. Further adjustment for aforementioned covariates slightly reduced effect strength (2.53 mmHg, 95% CI: 0.93, 4.14. Associations were weaker in males, where those with ≤12 years education had 1.20 (95% CI: -0

  5. Application of seasonal rainfall forecasts and satellite rainfall observations to crop yield forecasting for Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greatrex, H. L.; Grimes, D. I. F.; Wheeler, T. R.

    2009-04-01

    Rain-fed agriculture is of utmost importance in sub-Saharan Africa; the FAO estimates that over 90% of food consumed in the region is grown in rain-fed farming systems. As the climate in sub-Saharan Africa has a high interannual variability, this dependence on rainfall can leave communities extremely vulnerable to food shortages, especially when coupled with a lack of crop management options. The ability to make a regional forecast of crop yield on a timescale of months would be of enormous benefit; it would enable both governmental and non-governmental organisations to be alerted in advance to crop failure and could facilitate national and regional economic planning. Such a system would also enable individual communities to make more informed crop management decisions, increasing their resilience to climate variability and change. It should be noted that the majority of crops in the region are rainfall limited, therefore the ability to create a seasonal crop forecast depends on the ability to forecast rainfall at a monthly or seasonal timescale and to temporally downscale this to a daily time-series of rainfall. The aim of this project is to develop a regional-scale seasonal forecast for sub-Saharan crops, utilising the General Large Area Model for annual crops (GLAM). GLAM would initially be driven using both dynamical and statistical seasonal rainfall forecasts to provide an initial estimate of crop yield. The system would then be continuously updated throughout the season by replacing the seasonal rainfall forecast with daily weather observations. TAMSAT satellite rainfall estimates are used rather than rain-gauge data due to the scarcity of ground based observations. An important feature of the system is the use of the geo-statistical method of sequential simulation to create an ensemble of daily weather inputs from both the statistical seasonal rainfall forecasts and the satellite rainfall estimates. This allows a range of possible yield outputs to be

  6. [Maternal mortality in Brazil: what has the scientific literature shown in the last 30 years?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morse, Marcia Lait; Fonseca, Sandra Costa; Barbosa, Mariane Doelinger; Calil, Manuele Bonatto; Eyer, Fernanda Pinella Carvalhal

    2011-04-01

    The aim of this study was to analyze maternal mortality in Brazil in the last 30 years, by means of a literature review. The authors performed an electronic search of scientific articles from 1980 to 2010 in LILACS and MEDLINE and found 486 abstracts, of which 50 articles were selected. Studies showed a decrease in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR), although varying across regions of the country. A few articles evaluated maternal mortality factors, identifying social inequalities associated with skin color and schooling. There was persistent underreporting of maternal deaths and inadequate completion of death certificates. Direct obstetric causes were the most frequent, mainly hypertensive diseases of pregnancy. Analysis of avoidability revealed deficiencies in prenatal and childbirth care. Despite the relevance of maternal mortality in Brazil, there are few studies on the subject. Although MMR has decreased, it is still above the desired levels. Improvements are thus needed in the quality of prenatal and perinatal care.

  7. Recurrent diplopia over a 30-year period: natural history of a Lewis and Sumner syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lefaucheur, Romain; Bouwyn, Jean Paul; Wallon, David; Bedat-Millet, Anne-Laure; Ahtoy, Patrick; Perot, Guillaume; Hannequin, Didier; Maltête, David

    2012-06-01

    We described the case of a patient with recurrent episodes of isolated diplopia over the last 30 years. On her last event, neurological examination revealed not only a right third and sixth cranial nerves involvement, but also a right peripheral facial palsy and a motor weakness on the left ulnar territory. Electrophysiological nerves motor conduction study revealed a conduction block on the left ulnar nerve and a less severe on the right ulnar nerve. Asymmetrical upper limb sensorimotor weakness combined with conduction block and cranial nerves palsy led to a diagnosis of Lewis and Sumner syndrome (LSS). This case is unusual by the presentation of the disease and is, to our knowledge the longer natural disease course of LSS reported. Moreover, it suggests that the recurrent diplopia variant may represent a separate entity with a good prognosis even in absence of invasive treatment.

  8. Migrating transient osteoporosis of the hip in a 30-year-old man

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suresh S

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Transient osteoporosis of hip is a condition of unknown etiology, presenting as painful limping, and characterized by osteopenia of the involved joint without preexisting disease or immobilization. Most of the cases were reported in middle-aged men, and one-third of the cases develop in women in the third trimester of pregnancy. The hypothesis that this condition leads to avascular necrosis of the hip has been disproved by various reports and hence does not warrant any surgical interference. This is a self limiting condition, which needs regular follow-up. The authors report a case of migrating transient osteoporosis of the hip in a 30-year-old man successfully treated with antiresorptive treatment.

  9. Retrospect and reflection: the past 30 years of research on hepatitis C prophylaxis and treatment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JIA Zhansheng

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The research on prophylaxis and treatment of hepatitis C has been performed for more than 30 years, with outstanding achievements. The discovery and confirmation of hepatitis C virus (HCV was a milestone for how humans discovered new life. Emphasis on HCV molecular biology, infection immunity, and pathogenesis is the basic rule for scientific research on infectious diseases. PEG-IFN combined with ribavirin as the standardized antiviral treatment has been a great success; this combination therapy achieves a sustained viral response more than 80% in Chinese people, which is a typical example for successful clinical application of cytokines. Direct-acting antiviral agent(DAA or combined application has made it possible to cure all patients infected with hepatitis C, which is the most successful example for reference. Persistent viral infection and maintenance of immune homeostasis under certain conditions are the results of the interaction between the host and the virus, and the development of vaccines will be continued.

  10. Psychology in the community: a community psychologist looks at 30 years in community mental health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, John R

    2008-01-01

    I review my 30 years in the community mental health field, emphasizing the personal and historical context that shaped this career. I especially highlight the origins of the values that guided significant career decisions, including family, neighborhood, religious and educational influences. The core guiding value was the belief that public service is both a privilege and an obligation, and that righting social injustice through such service is a noble calling. I trace the evolution of my thoughts and actions reflecting this value, from an early desire to "help children," through preparation to become a child psychologist, and ultimately to practice in a public community mental health setting and a career dedicated first to primary prevention and then to broader safety net services for those in need. I highlight a corresponding intellectual evolution as well, a progressive change in identity from "clinical psychologist in the community" to community psychologist.

  11. Post-gastrectomy patients need to be followed up for 20-30 years

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Frank I. Tovey; Michael Hobsley

    2000-01-01

    AIM To investigate the incidence andmanagement of nutritional deficiencies followinga gastrectomy.METHODS A gastrectomy population of 227patients in London was followed up for 30 years after operation to detect and treat nutritional deficiencies.RESULTS By the end of the first decade iron deficiency was the commonest problem. Vitamin B12 deficiency became more important in the second decade. During the third decade both reached equal prevalence, being found in some 90% of the female and 70% of the male residual population. Vitamin D deficiency was a lesser problem, reaching its climax in the second decade. Overall, all women fared worse than men.CONCLUSION The importance of long-term follow-up of gastrectomy patients for iron,Vitamin B12 and Vitamin D deficiencies is emphasised.

  12. A case of lupus vulgaris with rare localization diagnosed 30 years after onset.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laudańska, H; Reduta, T; Zalewski, G; Chodynicka, B

    2011-01-01

    Cutaneous tuberculosis (tuberculosis cutis) is one of the extrapulmonary forms of tuberculosis, which may affect the skin only or co-exist with tuberculosis of other organs, particularly the lungs. We describe a case of lupus vulgaris in a 72-year-old male patient with a single lesion localized on his lower extremity, developing for 30 years before correct diagnosis and previously treated with topical steroids. Bacillus infection in other organs was not detected. Diagnosis of tuberculosis was made based on personal history, clinical picture, hypersensitivity to tuberculin, histopathology and polymerase chain reaction. A multidrug therapy with rifampicin, isoniazid and pyrazinamide resulted in regression of the lesion. The common lack of knowledge about the clinical picture of cutaneous tuberculosis causes its late diagnosis and treatment.

  13. Neurological effects of white spirit: Contribution of animal studies during a 30-year period

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Gunnar Damgård; Lund, Søren Peter; Ladefoged, Ole

    2006-01-01

    , but the neurophysiological tests showed adverse effects at this level. Fourth, neurophysiological methods may be more sensitive than histopathological, neurobehavioural and neurochemical methods. Overall, white spirit with a high and a low content of aromatics showed no overt difference in long-term effects in animals......Numerous studies have suggested that long-term occupational exposure to white spirit may cause chronic toxic encephalopathy (WHO 1996). This review summarizes the chronic nervous system effects of white spirit in animal studies during a 30-year period. First, routine histopathology was consistently...... unable to reveal adverse peripheral or central nervous system effects after inhalation of white spirit. Second, neurobehavioural studies in animals showed no adverse effect after inhalation of white spirit with a high content of aromatics in contrast to what was found with products with a low content...

  14. Treatment of rectal prolapse in children with cow milk injection sclerotherapy: 30-year experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zganjer, Mirko; Cizmic, Ante; Cigit, Irenej; Zupancic, Bozidar; Bumci, Igor; Popovic, Ljiljana; Kljenak, Antun

    2008-01-01

    AIM: To evaluate the role and our experience of injection sclerotherapy with cow milk in the treatment of rectal prolapse in children. METHODS: In the last 30 years (1976-2006) we made 100 injections of sclerotherapy with cow milk in 86 children. In this study we included children who failed to respond to conservative treatment and we perform operative treatment. RESULTS: In our study we included 86 children and in all of the patients we perform cow milk injection sclerotherapy. In 95.3% (82 children) of patients sclerotherapy was successful. In 4 (4.7%) patients we had recurrent rectal prolapse where we performed operative treatment. Below 4 years we had 62 children (72%) and 24 older children (28%). In children who needed operative treatment we performed Thiersch operation and without any complications. CONCLUSION: Injection sclerotherapy with cow milk for treatment rectal prolapse in children is a simple and effective treatment for rectal prolapse with minimal complications. PMID:18205264

  15. Human Papillomavirus Assays and Cytology in Primary Cervical Screening of Women Aged 30 Years and Above

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rebolj, Matejka; Bonde, Jesper; Preisler, Sarah

    2016-01-01

    In women aged ≥30 years, Human Papillomavirus testing will replace cytology for primary cervical screening. We compared Hybrid Capture 2 (HC2), cobas, CLART, and APTIMA HPV assays with cytology on 2869 SurePath samples from women undergoing routine screening at 30-65 years in Copenhagen, Denmark....... Women with cytological abnormalities were managed according to routine recommendations, with 92% completeness. Those with cytology-normal/HPV-positive samples (on any of the four assays) were invited for repeated cytology and HPV testing in 1.5 year, and 58% had additional testing. HPV testing detected...... more ≥CIN3 than cytology (HC2: 35, cobas, CLART: 37, APTIMA: 34, cytology: 31), although statistically the differences were not significant. Cobas and CLART detected significantly more ≥CIN2 than cytology (cobas, CLART: 49, cytology: 39). The proportion of women with false-positive test results...

  16. SEARCH OF INHIBITORS OF HERPES VIRAL REPLICATION: 30 YEARS AFTER ACYCLOVIR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Korovina A. N.

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Analysis of study and using of different chemical compounds as inhibitors of herpes virus replication is given in the review. However, it does not apply for full details of all the studies on active antiherpetic drugs finding. It’s been over 30 years since the discovery of the first antiherpetic drugs ? acyclovir. Meanwhile, lots of active chemical compounds appeared that have been brought to the antiviral drugs. An essential understanding of strategies for finding drugs came in, one of which was establishment of depot forms of antiherpetic drugs. On the basis of the vast published experimental material the authors concluded that the study of the herpes virus and search for inhibitors of its replication is still an important issue and requires the efforts of chemists, biologists, pharmacists.

  17. 30-Year Satellite Record Reveals Accelerated Arctic Sea Ice Loss, Antarctic Sea Ice Trend Reversal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavalieri, Donald J.; Parkinson, C. L.; Vinnikov, K. Y.

    2003-01-01

    Arctic sea ice extent decreased by 0.30 plus or minus 0.03 x 10(exp 6) square kilometers per decade from 1972 through 2002, but decreased by 0.36 plus or minus 0.05 x 10(exp 6) square kilometers per decade from 1979 through 2002, indicating an acceleration of 20% in the rate of decrease. In contrast to the Arctic, the Antarctic sea ice extent decreased dramatically over the period 1973-1977, then gradually increased, with an overall 30-year trend of -0.15 plus or minus 0.08 x 10(exp 6) square kilometers per 10yr. The trend reversal is attributed to a large positive anomaly in Antarctic sea ice extent observed in the early 1970's.

  18. Spousal Breadwinning Across 30 Years of Marriage and Husbands' Health: A Gendered Life Course Stress Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Springer, Kristen W; Lee, Chioun; Carr, Deborah

    2017-08-01

    Wives increasingly outearn their husbands, and gender relations theory suggests this arrangement may undermine men's well-being. We explore how long-term histories of spousal breadwinning may be associated with older men's self-rated mental and physical health, and risk of nine health diagnoses. Using 30 years of couple-level income data from the Health and Retirement Study ( n = 1,095 couples), we use latent class analyses to identify six classes that differ with respect to the timing and level of wife breadwinning. We link these classes to older husbands' later-life health. Classes that transitioned from husband breadwinning to wife breadwinning in early or later adulthood were associated with husbands' poorer overall physical health and risk of cardiometabolic and stress-related diseases. Patterns persist net of sociodemographics, depressive symptoms, health behaviors, and adolescent health. Violating cultural expectations, such as the masculinity ideal of male breadwinning, is associated with older men's poorer health.

  19. Validation of a 30+ year soil moisture record from multi-satellite observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Jeu, R.; Dorigo, W.; Wagner, W.; Chung, D.; Parinussa, R.; van der Werf, G.; Liu, Y.; Mittelbach, H.; Hirschi, M.

    2012-12-01

    As part of the ESA Climate Change Initiative soil moisture project a 30+ year consistent soil moisture dataset is currently in development by harmonizing retrievals from both passive and active microwave satellite observations. The harmonization of these datasets incorporates the advantage of both microwave techniques and spans the entire period from 1978 onwards. A statistical methodology based on scaling, ranking and blending was developed to address differences in sensor specifications to create one consistent dataset. A soil moisture dataset provided by a land surface model (GLDAS-1-Noah) was used to scale the different satellite-based products to the same range. The blending of the active and passive datasets was based on their respective performance, which is closely related to vegetation cover. While this approach imposes the absolute values of the land surface model dataset to the final product, it preserves the relative dynamics (e.g., seasonality, inter-annual variations) and trends of the original satellite derived retrievals. Different validation methods were performed to quantify the skill of the various soil moisture datasets at different temporal and spatial scales. In situ data from the International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN) were used to calculate the local correlation (both Pearson and Spearman) and Root Mean Square Difference between ground observations and the satellite retrievals for different climate regimes. In addition a triple collocation analysis was applied on the passive and active satellite products in order to analyze the error structures at a global scale for the different sensors. Furthermore, indirect proxies like tree ring width data were used to study the consistency of the inter-annual variability within the 30+ year dataset. The combination of these techniques revealed a strong dynamical behavior in data quality in both time and space. In the future this additional information on error dynamics could be used to further

  20. Treatment results of glioblastoma during the last 30 years in a single institute.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumabe, Toshihiro; Saito, Ryuta; Kanamori, Masayuki; Chonan, Masashi; Mano, Yui; Shibahara, Ichiyo; Kawaguchi, Tomohiro; Kato, Hideaki; Yamashita, Yoji; Sonoda, Yukihiko; Kawagishi, Jun; Jokura, Hidefumi; Watanabe, Mika; Katakura, Ryuichi; Kayama, Takamasa; Tominaga, Teiji

    2013-01-01

    Treatment results of glioblastoma (GB) during the last 30 years in Tohoku University were analyzed to identify any improvements in patient outcome in all 332 histologically proven cases of newly diagnosed GB treated consecutively in our department between 1982 and 2011. These 30 years was divided into 5 treatment eras, Group 1 (1982-1988, without preoperative evaluation by magnetic resonance [MR] imaging, n = 46), Group 2 (1989-1996, with preoperative MR imaging, n = 41), Group 3 (1997-1999, additionally underwent intraoperative functional brain mapping and neuronavigation system, n = 38), Group 4 (2000-August 2006, underwent 30 Gy of whole brain radiation followed by 30 Gy of extended local accelerated hyperfractionated radiation therapy, n = 96), and Group 5 (September 2006-2011, adjuvant usage of temozolomide [TMZ], n = 111). Overall survival (OS) was calculated from the date of surgery to the death from any cause. The median survival time/2-year OS/5-year OS of Groups 1 to 5 were 10.7 months/10.9%/0%, 17.3 months/26.2%/6.9%, 15.9 months/23.7%/5.3%, 20.1 months/34.8%/15.5%, and 20.9 months/45.5%/19.7%. The prognosis for patients with GB improved significantly after the introduction of MR imaging. Younger GB, defined as patients aged below 60 years, or total tumor resection with all ages in Group 5 had 5-year 0S of 31.0% and 30.1%, respectively. The prognosis of GB was improved significantly after the introduction of TMZ for elderly GB, recursive partitioning analysis class 5, or totally resected GB. Introduction of MR imaging and TMZ, and total resection of the tumor were important in the improvement of outcome for patients with GB.

  1. A Bibliographic Study of Drug Abuse Research during last 30 years in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Afarin Rahimi Movaghar

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available In the last decades, the produced science has been significantly increased in the field of drug abuse, globally. The objective of this study was to assess the bibliographic aspects of the science produced in Iran on drug abuse in the last 30 years. All scientific papers published from Iran in a 30-year period (1973-2002 in national as well as international scientific journals were assessed for this study. These papers are indexed in the database for Iranian Mental Health Researches, called IranPsych. The total number of 218 papers on drug and drug abuse were found and assessed by six psychiatrists and psychologists with good inter-rater reliability. About half of these papers were published in the last two years. About half of the papers have been published in the Persian medical journals. One-third have been published in international journals. Overall, 449 authors contributed to the 218 published papers from whom 80 percent had only one paper. Half of the papers were written by only 15 authors (3.3 percent. Most of the authors were Medical Doctors and from Medical Universities. None of the researches was received financial support from pharmacologic industries. This study shows that in recent years, the increase in the publication of the researches conducted on drug abuse has been significant. Nevertheless, according to the high prevalence of drug abuse problem in Iran and improvements in the scientific, as well as executive structures, the whole scientific output is insignificant. The findings guide us to a more systematic approach toward training of researchers and promotion of resaerch in this area. Moreover, more active involvement of social scientists and publication of their research findings are recommended.

  2. Are extreme rainfall intensities more frequent? Analysis of trends in rainfall patterns relevant to urban drainage systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Toffol, S; Laghari, A N; Rauch, W

    2009-01-01

    The fact that climate change is affecting the intensity and frequency of rainfall is well accepted in the scientific community. This is backed by a multitude of reports on the basis of daily rainfall series analysis; however, little research is available for short duration intensities. Due to its significant influence on the behaviour of urban drainage, it is critical to investigate the changes in short duration rainfall intensities. In this study different intensities relevant for the urban drainage and the total rainfall per rain event are analysed. The trend is investigated using the Mann-Kendall test. The rainfall series analysed are from the alpine region Tyrol. The results present differences depending on the duration of the intensity and the series considered, however an increase in the number of extreme events is detectable for short durations for the most series.

  3. Interannual variability of rainfall characteristics over southwestern Madagascar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randriamahefasoa, T. S. M.; Reason, C. J. C.

    2017-04-01

    The interannual variability of daily frequency of rainfall [>1 mm/day] and heavy rainfall [>30 mm/day] is studied for the southwestern region of Madagascar, which is relatively arid compared to the rest of the island. Attention is focused on the summer rainy season from December to March at four stations (Morondava, Ranohira, Toliara and Taolagnaro), whose daily rainfall data covering the period 1970-2000 were obtained from the Madagascar Meteorological Service. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was found to have a relatively strong correlation with wet day frequency at each station and, particularly, for Toliara in the extreme southwest. In terms of seasonal rainfall totals, most El Niño (La Niña) summers receive below (above) average amounts. An ENSO connection with heavy rainfall events was less clear. However, for heavy rainfall events, the associated atmospheric circulation displays a Southern Annular Mode-like pattern throughout the hemisphere. For ENSO years and the neutral seasons 1979/80, 1981/82 which had large anomalies in wet day frequency, regional atmospheric circulation patterns consisted of strong anomalies in low-level moisture convergence and uplift over and near southwestern Madagascar that made conditions correspondingly more or less favourable for rainfall. Dry (wet) summers in southern Madagascar were also associated with an equatorward (poleward) displacement of the ITCZ in the region.

  4. Treatment outcomes, quality of life, and impact of hemophilia on young adults (aged 18-30 years) with hemophilia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witkop, Michelle; Guelcher, Christine; Forsyth, Angela; Hawk, Sarah; Curtis, Randall; Kelley, Laureen; Frick, Neil; Rice, Michelle; Rosu, Gabriela; Cooper, David L

    2015-12-01

    The Hemophilia Experiences, Results and Opportunities (HERO) initiative assessed psychosocial issues reported by people with moderate to severe hemophilia and was led by a multidisciplinary international advisory board. This analysis reports data from young adult respondents (aged 18-30 years), including both US and overall global (including US respondents) results, and investigates treatment outcomes, quality of life, and impacts of hemophilia on relationships. More young adults in HERO received prophylaxis than on-demand treatment, although a majority reported not using factor products exactly as prescribed, and 50% of global respondents and 26% of US respondents reported issues with access to factor replacement therapy in the previous 5 years. Many young adults with hemophilia reported comorbidities, including bone/skeletal arthritis, chronic pain, and viral infections, and nearly half of young adults reported anxiety/depression. Most reported pain interference with daily activities in the past 4 weeks, although a majority reported participating in lower-risk activities and approximately half in intermediate-risk activities. Most young adults were very or quite satisfied with the support of partners/spouses, family, and friends, although roughly one-third reported that hemophilia affected their ability to develop close relationships with a partner. A majority of young adults reported that hemophilia has had a negative impact on employment, and 62% of global respondents and 78% of US respondents were employed at least part-time. Together these data highlight the psychosocial issues experienced by young adults with hemophilia and suggest that increased focus on these issues may improve comprehensive care during the transition to adulthood.

  5. RAINFALL ANALYSIS IN KLANG RIVER BASIN USING CONTINUOUS WAVELET TRANSFORM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Celso A. G. Santos

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The rainfall characteristics within Klang River basin is analyzed by the continuous wavelet transform using monthly rainfall data (1997–2009 from a raingauge and also using daily rainfall data (1998–2013 from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM. The wavelet power spectrum showed that some frequency components were presented within the rainfall time series, but the observed time series is short to provide accurate information, thus the daily TRMM rainfall data were used. In such analysis, two main frequency components, i.e., 6 and 12 months, showed to be present during the entire period of 16 years. Such semiannual and annual frequencies were confirmed by the global wavelet power spectra. Finally, the modulation in the 8–16-month and 256– 512-day bands were examined by an average of all scales between 8 and 16 months, and 256 and 512 days, respectively, giving a measure of the average monthly/daily variance versus time, where the periods with low or high variance could be identified.

  6. A gridded hourly rainfall dataset for the UK applied to a national physically-based modelling system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Elizabeth; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Quinn, Niall; Freer, Jim; Coxon, Gemma; Woods, Ross; Bates, Paul; Fowler, Hayley

    2016-04-01

    An hourly gridded rainfall product has great potential for use in many hydrological applications that require high temporal resolution meteorological data. One important example of this is flood risk management, with flooding in the UK highly dependent on sub-daily rainfall intensities amongst other factors. Knowledge of sub-daily rainfall intensities is therefore critical to designing hydraulic structures or flood defences to appropriate levels of service. Sub-daily rainfall rates are also essential inputs for flood forecasting, allowing for estimates of peak flows and stage for flood warning and response. In addition, an hourly gridded rainfall dataset has significant potential for practical applications such as better representation of extremes and pluvial flash flooding, validation of high resolution climate models and improving the representation of sub-daily rainfall in weather generators. A new 1km gridded hourly rainfall dataset for the UK has been created by disaggregating the daily Gridded Estimates of Areal Rainfall (CEH-GEAR) dataset using comprehensively quality-controlled hourly rain gauge data from over 1300 observation stations across the country. Quality control measures include identification of frequent tips, daily accumulations and dry spells, comparison of daily totals against the CEH-GEAR daily dataset, and nearest neighbour checks. The quality control procedure was validated against historic extreme rainfall events and the UKCP09 5km daily rainfall dataset. General use of the dataset has been demonstrated by testing the sensitivity of a physically-based hydrological modelling system for Great Britain to the distribution and rates of rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. Of the sensitivity tests undertaken, the largest improvements in model performance were seen when an hourly gridded rainfall dataset was combined with potential evapotranspiration disaggregated to hourly intervals, with 61% of catchments showing an increase in NSE between

  7. Partitioning the impacts of spatial and climatological rainfall variability in urban drainage modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peleg, Nadav; Blumensaat, Frank; Molnar, Peter; Fatichi, Simone; Burlando, Paolo

    2017-03-01

    The performance of urban drainage systems is typically examined using hydrological and hydrodynamic models where rainfall input is uniformly distributed, i.e., derived from a single or very few rain gauges. When models are fed with a single uniformly distributed rainfall realization, the response of the urban drainage system to the rainfall variability remains unexplored. The goal of this study was to understand how climate variability and spatial rainfall variability, jointly or individually considered, affect the response of a calibrated hydrodynamic urban drainage model. A stochastic spatially distributed rainfall generator (STREAP - Space-Time Realizations of Areal Precipitation) was used to simulate many realizations of rainfall for a 30-year period, accounting for both climate variability and spatial rainfall variability. The generated rainfall ensemble was used as input into a calibrated hydrodynamic model (EPA SWMM - the US EPA's Storm Water Management Model) to simulate surface runoff and channel flow in a small urban catchment in the city of Lucerne, Switzerland. The variability of peak flows in response to rainfall of different return periods was evaluated at three different locations in the urban drainage network and partitioned among its sources. The main contribution to the total flow variability was found to originate from the natural climate variability (on average over 74 %). In addition, the relative contribution of the spatial rainfall variability to the total flow variability was found to increase with longer return periods. This suggests that while the use of spatially distributed rainfall data can supply valuable information for sewer network design (typically based on rainfall with return periods from 5 to 15 years), there is a more pronounced relevance when conducting flood risk assessments for larger return periods. The results show the importance of using multiple distributed rainfall realizations in urban hydrology studies to capture the

  8. Trends in rainfall erosivity (1955-2006) over the Ebro basin; Tendencias en la erosividad de la lluvia (1955-2006) en la cuenca del Ebro

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Angulo Martinez, M.; Vicente Serrano, S. M.; Begueria, S.

    2009-07-01

    Rainfall is one of the main factors affecting soil erosion. This effect is summarized in the concept or rainfall erosivity which involves the drop size distribution and kinetic energy of an event, its duration and intensity, and the runoff that generates. To calculate rainfall erosivity several indices can be applied. The most extensively used is the R factor of the Revised Universal soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). To compute this index continuous rainfall data are needed. This kind of data is difficult to obtain with a good spatial and temporal coverage. In this work, daily rainfall records have been converted into daily rainfall erosivity data. For this objective, we used the Richardson et al. (1983) exponential relationship between rainfall volume and rainfall erosivity to create the Daily Rainfall Erosivity Model (DREM). (Author) 4 refs.

  9. East coast lows, atmospheric blocking and rainfall: A Tasmanian perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pook, Michael; Risbey, James; McIntosh, Peter, E-mail: Mike.Pook@csiro.a [Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (A partnership between CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology), Castray Esplanade, Hobart, Tasmania 7000 (Australia)

    2010-08-15

    Although the term 'east coast low' is normally associated with intense cyclones near the east coast of mainland Australia, cutoff lows of similar type also affect Tasmania. This paper demonstrates that the cutoff low is a major source of rainfall for the agricultural districts and water catchments of eastern Tasmania. In particular, an analysis of synoptic systems and daily rainfall reveals that cutoff lows are responsible for almost 50% of April to October rainfall in parts of the northeast and a slightly lower proportion in the southeast. The other large contribution to rainfall is from frontal systems but the relative effects of the various synoptic types vary widely across the state as a result of the complex topography. Cutoff lows commonly form the cyclonic portion of a blocking dipole which can have opposing influences on Tasmanian rainfall. The high latitude anticyclone suppresses rainfall in western and southwestern Tasmania, while the cutting off of a relatively small cyclonic component equatorwards of the high frequently results in enhanced rainfall over eastern Tasmania. Results from two climate models indicate that the accurate simulation of blocking and cutoff lows remains difficult to achieve and this has implications for projections of Tasmanian rainfall on seasonal and longer time scales.

  10. A 35-40% Likelihood of a Highly Damaging Tokyo Earthquake in Next 30 Years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, R. S.; Toda, S.; Parsons, T.; Bozkurt, S. B.

    2005-12-01

    Tokyo and its outlying cities are home to one-quarter of Japan's 127 million people. Highly destructive earthquakes struck the capital in 1703, 1855 and 1923, the last of which took 105,000 lives. Reoccurrence of any of these shocks today would cost about one trillion dollars, of which perhaps 10% is insured. Fueled by Tokyo's rich data trove but hindered by its complexity, we carried out a new hazard assessment. We used the prehistoric record of great earthquakes preserved in uplifted marine terraces and tsunami deposits (17 M~8 shocks in the past 7,000 years), historical shaking (10,000 intensity observations in the past 400 years), the dense modern seismic network (300,000 earthquakes in the past 30 years), and the world's best geodetic array (150 GPS vectors spanning the past 10 years). We propose that a dislodged block of the Pacific plate is jammed between the Pacific, Philippine Sea and Eurasian plates beneath Tokyo, and controls much of Tokyo's seismic behavior for M≤7.5 shocks, including the damaging 1855 M~7.3 Ansei-Edo shock. On the basis of frequency-magnitude curves, earthquakes similar to the Ansei-Edo event should be quite frequent (25-35% likelihood in an average 30-yr period), and so such events dominate the combined probabilities. In contrast, our renewal model for the great 1703 and 1923 type plate boundary shocks yields a ~1% probability for the next 30 yr, with a time-averaged 30-yr probability of ~8%. The resulting net likelihood for severe shaking in Tokyo, Kawasaki, and Yokohama for the next 30 years is 25%-40%, but how can it be validated? The long historical record in Kanto affords a rare opportunity to calculate the probability of shaking in an alternative manner, based almost exclusively on intensity observations. This approach permits robust estimates for the spatial distribution of shaking, even for sites with few observations. The resulting probability of severe shaking over an average 30-yr period is ~35% in the Tokyo, Kawasaki

  11. Factors driving mortality and growth at treeline: a 30-year experiment of 92 000 conifers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbeito, Ignacio; Dawes, Melissa A; Rixen, Christian; Senn, Josef; Bebi, Peter

    2012-02-01

    Understanding the interplay between environmental factors contributing to treeline formation and how these factors influence different life stages remains a major research challenge. We used an afforestation experiment including 92 000 trees to investigate the spatial and temporal dynamics of tree mortality and growth at treeline in the Swiss Alps. Seedlings of three high-elevation conifer species (Larix decidua, Pinus mugo ssp. uncinata, and Pinus cembra) were systematically planted along an altitudinal gradient at and above the current treeline (2075 to 2230 m above sea level [a.s.l.]) in 1975 and closely monitored during the following 30 years. We used decision-tree models and generalized additive models to identify patterns in mortality and growth along gradients in elevation, snow duration, wind speed, and solar radiation, and to quantify interactions between the different variables. For all three species, snowmelt date was always the most important environmental factor influencing mortality, and elevation was always the most important factor for growth over the entire period studied. Individuals of all species survived at the highest point of the afforestation for more than 30 years, although mortality was greater above 2160 m a.s.l., 50-100 m above the current treeline. Optimal conditions for height growth differed from those for survival in all three species: early snowmelt (ca. day of year 125-140 [where day 1 is 1 January]) yielded lowest mortality rates, but relatively later snowmelt (ca. day 145-150) yielded highest growth rates. Although snowmelt and elevation were important throughout all life stages of the trees, the importance of radiation decreased over time and that of wind speed increased. Our findings provide experimental evidence that tree survival and height growth require different environmental conditions and that even small changes in the duration of snow cover, in addition to changes in temperature, can strongly impact tree survival and

  12. Antihistamines and driving ability: Evidence from 30 years Dutch on-road driving research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verster, J.C.; Van De Loo, A.J.A.E.; Garssen, J.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Since all antihistamines are capable of crossing the blood-brain barrier, they may also cause sedation which may impair daily activities such as driving a car. The purpose of this review was to examine the effects of antihistamines on driving ability. Method: A literature search revealed

  13. Spatial Variability of Rainfall

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, N.E.; Pedersen, Lisbeth

    2005-01-01

    As a part of a Local Area Weather Radar (LAWR) calibration exercise 15 km south of Århus, Denmark, the variability in accumulated rainfall within a single radar pixel (500 by 500 m) was measured using nine high-resolution rain gauges. The measured values indicate up to a 100% variation between...

  14. The Wageningen Rainfall Simulator

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lassu, Tamas; Seeger, K.M.; Peters, P.D.; Keesstra, S.D.

    2015-01-01

    The set-up and characterisation of an indoor nozzle-type rainfall simulator (RS) at Wageningen University, the Netherlands, are presented. It is equipped with four Lechler nozzles (two nr. 460·788 and two nr. 461·008). The tilting irrigation plot is 6 m long and 2·5 m wide. An electrical pump

  15. Theoretical framework to estimate spatially averaged rainfalls conditional on river discharges and point rainfall measurements from a single location: an application to Western Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Langousis

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available We focus on the special case of catchments covered by a single raingauge, and develop a theoretical framework to obtain estimates of spatial rainfall averages conditional on rainfall measurements from a single location, and the flow conditions at the catchment outlet. In doing so we use: (a statistical tools to identify and correct inconsistencies between daily rainfall occurrence and amount and the flow conditions at the outlet of the basin, (b concepts from multifractal theory to relate the fraction of wet intervals in point rainfall measurements and that in spatial rainfall averages, while accounting for the shape and size of the catchment, the size, lifetime and advection velocity of rainfall generating features and the location of the raingauge inside the basin, and (c semi-theoretical arguments to assure consistency between rainfall and runoff volumes at an inter-annual level, implicitly accounting for spatial heterogeneities of rainfall caused by orographic influences. In an application study, using point rainfall records from Glafkos river basin in Western Greece, we find the suggested approach to demonstrate significant skill in resolving rainfall-runoff incompatibilities at a daily level, while reproducing the statistics of spatial rainfall averages at both monthly and annual time scales, independently of the location of the raingauge and the magnitude of the observed deviations between point rainfall measurements and spatial rainfall averages. The developed scheme should serve as an important tool for the effective calibration of rainfall-runoff models in basins covered by a single raingauge and, also, improve hydrologic impact assessment at a river basin level under changing climatic conditions.

  16. Daily Democracy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larson, Karin; Giro, Francesca; Graham, Todd

    media are fostering a more ‘connected’ and reciprocal relationship between citizens and politicians. Throughout many Western democracies, research points to the in- creasing valorisation of Twitter as an informal, intimate and open space for (ev- eryday) political communication, raising important......, it ignores the communicative mundaneness of daily democracy. This paper accordingly in- vestigates and compares the ways in which members of parliament (MPs) in three European countries – Italy, Sweden and United Kingdom – utilize Twit- ter during off-peak periods, focusing on the extent to which social...... basic patterns of usage. Second, we analyse the types of tweets (e.g. retweet, @-reply); third, their function (e.g. self-promotion, critiquing, requesting input/support); fourth, interaction (whom MPs communicate with). Finally, we examine the content (the political/personal topics tweeted about...

  17. Rainfall variability in the Himalayan orogen and its relevance to erosion processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deal, Eric; Favre, Anne-Catherine; Braun, Jean

    2017-05-01

    Rainfall is an important driver of erosion processes. The mean rainfall rate is often used to account for the erosive impact of a particular climate. However, for some erosion processes, erosion rate is a nonlinear function of rainfall, e.g., due to a threshold for erosion. When this is the case, it is important to take into account the full distribution of rainfall, instead of just the mean. In light of this, we have characterized the variability of daily rainfall over the Himalayan orogen using high spatial and temporal resolution rainfall data sets. We find significant variations in rainfall variability over the Himalayan orogen, with increasing rainfall variability to the west and north of the orogen. By taking into account variability of rainfall in addition to mean rainfall rate, we find a pattern of rainfall that, from a geomorphological perspective, is significantly different from mean rainfall rate alone. Using these findings, we argue that short-term rainfall variability may help explain observed short and long-term erosion rates in the Himalayan orogen.

  18. National Library of Medicine Celebrates 30 Years of Progress and Charts the Future | NIH MedlinePlus the Magazine

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... of this page please turn JavaScript on. National Library of Medicine Celebrates 30 Years of Progress and ... me to imagine a world without the National Library of Medicine." Photo courtesy of NIH NLM Director ...

  19. Radiation induced skin cancer the chest wall 30 years later from breast cancer operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miyamoto, Kouji; Togawa, Tamotsu; Hasegawa, Takeshi; Matsunami, Hidetoshi; Ikeda, Tsuneko [Matsunami General Hospital, Kasamatsu, Gifu (Japan); Matsuo, Youichi

    1998-10-01

    This paper describes the skin cancer on the frontal chest wall induced by postoperative irradiation 30 years later from mastectomy. The patients was a 62-year-old woman, who received mastectomy of the right breast cancer (invasive ductal carcinoma, comedo type) at 31 years old, and received the postoperative radiotherapy of total 11,628 rad over 38 times. On the first medical examination in author`s hospital, the patient had an ulcer of about 10 cm diameter and was diagnosed the radiation induced skin cancer (well differentiated squamous cell carcinoma) in the biopsy. Because of the general condition of the patient was extremely bad and the skin cancer had highly developed, the excision was thought to be impossible. The radiotherapy (16 Gy) and combined local chemotherapy by OK 432 and Bleomycin were performed. In spite of the short term treatment, these therapies were effective on the reduction of the tumor size and the hemostasis, and brought the patient the improvement of QOL. The general condition of the patient improved to be stable and she recovered enough to go out from the hospital for 6 months. After 10 months, she showed anorexia and dyspnea and died after about 1 year from the admission. The present case is extremely rare, and it is required the radical therapy like the excision of chest wall at early stage. (K.H.)

  20. Divergent Arctic-Boreal Vegetation Changes between North America and Eurasia over the Past 30 Years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arindam Samanta

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Arctic-Boreal region—mainly consisting of tundra, shrub lands, and boreal forests—has been experiencing an amplified warming over the past 30 years. As the main driving force of vegetation growth in the north, temperature exhibits tight coupling with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI—a proxy to photosynthetic activity. However, the comparison between North America (NA and northern Eurasia (EA shows a weakened spatial dependency of vegetation growth on temperature changes in NA during the past decade. If this relationship holds over time, it suggests a 2/3 decrease in vegetation growth under the same rate of warming in NA, while the vegetation response in EA stays the same. This divergence accompanies a circumpolar widespread greening trend, but 20 times more browning in the Boreal NA compared to EA, and comparative greening and browning trends in the Arctic. These observed spatial patterns of NDVI are consistent with the temperature record, except in the Arctic NA, where vegetation exhibits a similar long-term trend of greening to EA under less warming. This unusual growth pattern in Arctic NA could be due to a lack of precipitation velocity compared to the temperature velocity, when taking velocity as a measure of northward migration of climatic conditions.

  1. How are qualitative methods used in diabetes research? A 30-year systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hennink, Monique M; Kaiser, Bonnie N; Sekar, Swathi; Griswold, Emily P; Ali, Mohammed K

    2017-02-01

    We aimed to describe how qualitative methods are used in global research on diabetes and identify opportunities whereby qualitative methods could further benefit our understanding of the human experience of diabetes and interventions to address it. We conducted a systematic review of National Library of Medicine, EMBASE, and Web of Science electronic databases to identify original research articles that used qualitative methods to study diabetes between 1980 and 2011. We identified 554 eligible articles and categorised these by geographic region, year of publication, study population, study design, research question, qualitative data collection methods, and journal type. Results show low use of qualitative methods in diabetes research over the past 30 years. The majority of articles (75%) reported using substantive qualitative research, while mixed-methods research has remained underutilised. Eighty-five per cent of articles reported studies conducted in North America or Europe, with few studies in developing countries. Most articles reported recruiting clinic-based populations (58%). Over half (54%) of research questions focused on patient experience and 24% on diabetes management. Qualitative methods can provide important insights about socio-cultural aspects of disease to improve disease management. However, they remain underutilised for understanding the diabetes experience, especially in Africa and Asia and amongst non-clinic populations.

  2. The SLC28 (CNT) and SLC29 (ENT) nucleoside transporter families: a 30-year collaborative odyssey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, James D

    2016-06-15

    Specialized nucleoside transporter (NT) proteins are required for passage of nucleosides and hydrophilic nucleoside analogues across biological membranes. Physiologic nucleosides serve as central salvage metabolites in nucleotide biosynthesis, and nucleoside analogues are used as chemotherapeutic agents in the treatment of cancer and antiviral diseases. The nucleoside adenosine modulates numerous cellular events via purino-receptor cell signalling pathways. Human NTs are divided into two structurally unrelated protein families: the SLC28 concentrative nucleoside transporter (CNT) family and the SLC29 equilibrative nucleoside transporter (ENT) family. Human CNTs are inwardly directed Na(+)-dependent nucleoside transporters found predominantly in intestinal and renal epithelial and other specialized cell types. Human ENTs mediate bidirectional fluxes of purine and pyrimidine nucleosides down their concentration gradients and are ubiquitously found in most, possibly all, cell types. Both protein families are evolutionarily old: CNTs are present in both eukaryotes and prokaryotes; ENTs are widely distributed in mammalian, lower vertebrate and other eukaryote species. This mini-review describes a 30-year collaboration with Professor Stephen Baldwin to identify and understand the structures and functions of these physiologically and clinically important transport proteins.

  3. A 30 Year Old Man with Fever and Indolent Soft Tissue Masses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wissam Zaeeter

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Multifocal Skeletal Tuberculosis (MSTB is a rare presentation of skeletal tuberculosis. The indolent nature of this condition often leads to delayed or missed diagnosis, sometimes with devastating consequences for the patient. In order to provide meaningful clinical information and to highlight pitfalls in diagnosis of MFST, we present a case of MSTB. A review of this condition is included for broader coverage. Approach: A 30 year old immune-competent male patient with a 1 year history of indolent soft tissue masses on the chest wall overlying the sternum and the ribs. CAT scan of the chest showed multiple lytic bony lesions involving the ribs, sternum and vertebrae that mimicked metastatic cancer. Fine needle aspiration of the lesion revealed AFB and granulomas. Culture of the aspirated material grew mycobacterium tuberculosis and a diagnosis of MSTB was made. Results: A diagnosis of MSTB was made and anti-tuberculous therapy was initiated. Conclusion: This case indicated that multi-focal skeletal tuberculosis may develop in immune-competent patients without overt pulmonary involvement. From our experience along with previously reported data, MSTB should be suspected in patients from endemic areas who present with multiple skeletal bony lesions. Appropriate management and therapy are essentials for cure and to prevent complications.

  4. From Energy Audits to Home Performance: 30 Years of Articles in Home Energy Magazine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meier, Alan

    2014-08-11

    Home Energy Magazine has been publishing articles about residential energy efficiency for 30 years. Its goal has been to disseminate technically reliable and neutral information to the practitioners, that is, professionals in the business of home energy efficiency. The articles, editorials, letters, and advertisements are a kind of window on the evolution of energy conservation technologies, policies, and organizations. Initially, the focus was on audits and simple retrofits, such as weatherstripping and insulation. Instrumentation was sparse sometimes limited to a ruler to measure depth of attic insulation and a blower door was exotic. CFLs were heavy, awkward bulbs which might, or might not, fit in a fixture. Saving air conditioning energy was not a priority. Solar energy was only for the most adventurous. Thirty years on, the technologies and business have moved beyond just insulating attics to the larger challenge of delivering home performance and achieving zero net energy. This shift reflects the success in reducing space heating energy and the need to create a profitable industry by providing more services. The leading edge of the residential energy services market is becoming much more sophisticated, offering both efficiency and solar systems. The challenge is to continue providing relevant and reliable information in a transformed industry and a revolutionized media landscape.

  5. RADIATION CONDITIONS IN KALUGA REGION 30 YEARS AFTER CHERNOBYL NPP ACCIDENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. G. Ashitko

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article describes radiation conditions in the Kaluga region 30 years after the Chernobyl NPP accident. The Chernobyl NPP accident caused radioactive contamination of nine Kaluga region territories: Duminichsky, Zhizdrinsky, Kuibyshevsky, Kirovsky, Kozelsky, Ludinovsky, Meshchovsky, Ulyanovsky and Hvastovichsky districts. Radioactive fallout was the strongest in three southern districts: Zhizdrinsky, Ulyanovsky and Hvastovichsky, over there cesium-137 contamination density is from 1 to 15Ci/km. According to the Russian Federation Government Order in 2015 there are 300 settlements (S in the radioactive contamination zone, including 14 settlements with caesium-137 soil contamination density from 5 to 15 Ci/ km2 and 286 settlements with the contamination density ranging from 1 to 5 Ci/km2. In the first years after the Chernobyl NPP accident in Kaluga region territories, contaminated with caesium-137, there were introduced restrictive land usage, were carried out agrochemical activities (ploughing, mineral fertilizer dressing, there was toughened laboratory radiation control over the main doze-forming foodstuff. All these measures facilitated considerable decrease of caesium-137 content in local agricultural produce. Proceeding from the achieved result, in 2002 there took place the transition to more tough requirements SanPiN 2.3.2.1078-01. Analysis of investigated samples from Zhizdrinsky, Ulyanovsky and Hvastovichsky districts demonstrated that since 2005 meat samples didn’t exceed the standard values, same for milk samples since 2007. Till the present time, the use of wild-growing mushrooms, berries and wild animals meat involves radiation issues. It was demonstrated that average specific activity of caesium-137 in milk samples keeps decreasing year after year. Long after the Chernobyl NPP accident, the main products forming internal irradiation doses in population are the wild-growing mushrooms and berries. Population average annual

  6. Paraganglioma, neuroblastoma, and a SDHB mutation: Resolution of a 30-year-old mystery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schimke, R Neil; Collins, Debra L; Stolle, Catherine A

    2010-06-01

    Familial paraganglioma/pheochromocytoma (PGL/PCC) is genetically heterogenous with mutations in three of the four subunits of the heterotetrameric mitochondrial complex II enzyme succinate dehydrogenase (SDH) being causally responsible for the majority of cases. In addition to PGL/PCC an array of non-paraganglial tumors have been described in affected individuals. We present a 30-year follow-up on the family of a deceased patient who synchronously developed malignant neuroblastoma (NBL), PCC, and renal cell carcinoma (RCC). Other family members with late onset disease have come to our attention, and molecular study revealed a mutation in the SDHB gene. Despite the embryologic relationship, NBL has been seen in only two previous patients with familial PGL/PCC, both with deletions of the SDHB gene. Review of the literature suggests the lack of a reported association between NBL and familial PGL/PCC may be an ascertainment bias. We further suggest that study of the SDH genes in NBL survivors who develop secondary solid tumors, particularly RCC, may correct this bias, and provide for more effective and comprehensive tumor screening in this patient population.

  7. The virtual brain: 30 years of video-game play and cognitive abilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latham, Andrew J; Patston, Lucy L M; Tippett, Lynette J

    2013-09-13

    Forty years have passed since video-games were first made widely available to the public and subsequently playing games has become a favorite past-time for many. Players continuously engage with dynamic visual displays with success contingent on the time-pressured deployment, and flexible allocation, of attention as well as precise bimanual movements. Evidence to date suggests that both brief and extensive exposure to video-game play can result in a broad range of enhancements to various cognitive faculties that generalize beyond the original context. Despite promise, video-game research is host to a number of methodological issues that require addressing before progress can be made in this area. Here an effort is made to consolidate the past 30 years of literature examining the effects of video-game play on cognitive faculties and, more recently, neural systems. Future work is required to identify the mechanism that allows the act of video-game play to generate such a broad range of generalized enhancements.

  8. The virtual brain: 30 years of video-game play and cognitive abilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew James Latham

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Forty years have passed since video-games were first made widely available to the public and subsequently playing games has become a favourite past-time for many. Players continuously engage with dynamic visual displays with success contingent on the time-pressured deployment, and flexible allocation, of attention as well as precise bimanual movements. Evidence to date suggests that both brief and extensive exposure to video-game play can result in a broad range of enhancements to various cognitive faculties that generalize beyond the original context. Despite promise, video-game research is host to a number of methodological issues that require addressing before progress can be made in this area. Here an effort is made to consolidate the past 30 years of literature examining the effects of video-game play on cognitive faculties and, more recently, neural systems. Future work is required to identify the mechanism that allows the act of video-game play to generate such a broad range of generalized enhancements.

  9. International Standards for Properties and Performance of Advanced Ceramics - 30 years of Excellence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, Michael G.; Salem, Jonathan A.; Helfinstine, John; Quinn, George D.; Gonczy, Stephen T.

    2016-01-01

    Mechanical and physical properties/performance of brittle bodies (e.g., advanced ceramics and glasses) can be difficult to measure correctly unless the proper techniques are used. For three decades, ASTM Committee C28 on Advanced Ceramics, has developed numerous full-consensus standards (e.g., test methods, practices, guides, terminology) to measure various properties and performance of a monolithic and composite ceramics and coatings that, in some cases, may be applicable to glasses. These standards give the "what, how, how not, why, why not, etc." for many mechanical, physical, thermal, properties and performance of advanced ceramics. Use of these standards provides accurate, reliable, repeatable and complete data. Involvement in ASTM Committee C28 has included users, producers, researchers, designers, academicians, etc. who write, continually update, and validate through round robin test programmes, more than 45 standards in the 30 years since the Committee's inception in 1986. Included in this poster is a pictogram of the ASTM Committee C28 standards and how to obtain them either as i) individual copies with full details or ii) a complete collection in one volume. A listing of other ASTM committees of interest is included. In addition, some examples of the tangible benefits of standards for advanced ceramics are employed to demonstrate their practical application.

  10. [Spatiotemporal variation of soil pH in Guangdong Province of China in past 30 years].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Zhi-Xing; Wang, Jing; Chai, Min; Chen, Ze-Peng; Zhan, Zhen-Shou; Zheng, Wu-Ping; Wei, Xiu-Guo

    2011-02-01

    Based on the 1980s' soil inventory data and the 2002-2007 soil pH data of Guangdong Province, the spatiotemporal variation of soil pH in the Province in past 30 years was studied. In the study period, the spatial distribution pattern of soil pH in the Province had less change (mainly acidic), except that in Pearl River Delta and parts of Qingyuan and Shaoguan (weak alkaline). The overall variation of soil pH was represented as acidification, with the average pH value changed from 5.70 to 5.44. Among the soil types in the Province, alluvial soil had an increased pH, lateritic red soil, paddy soil, and red soil had a large decrement of pH value, and lime soil was most obvious in the decrease of pH value and its area percentage. The soil acidification was mainly induced by soil characteristics, some natural factors such as acid rain, and human factors such as unreasonable fertilization and urbanization. In addition, industrialization and mining increased the soil pH in some areas.

  11. Noncancer mortality based on the Hiroshima Atomic Bomb survivors registry over 30 years, 1968-1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kasagi, Keiko [Hiroshima Univ. (Japan). Research Inst. for Radiation Biology and Medicine

    2002-04-01

    The relation of radiation exposure with noncancer mortality was examined on 44,514 atomic bomb survivors (17,935 males, 26,579 females, and mean age 22.8{+-}15.7 yrs at the time of bombing) registered at Research Institute for Radiation Biology and Medicine, Hiroshima University, based on mortality follow-up over 30 years, 1968-1997. Noncancer mortality was significantly related to radiation dose with relative risk of 1.06 at 1 Sv radiation dose, although weaker than the dose response in solid cancer mortality. The significant dose responses were observed especially in circulatory disease, stroke and urinary organ disease, and suggestive dose response in pneumonia. The temporal pattern in dose response by age at the time of bombing indicated that the relative risk of noncancer mortality was higher with follow-up period, which is contrary to a decreasing dose response in solid cancer mortality with follow-up period. The tendency was remarkable in those survivors younger at the time of bombing. These findings suggest that the significant radiation risk observed in noncancer mortality might increase as the proportion of younger survivors among atomic bomb survivors increases. (author)

  12. A glimpse into 30 years of struggle against prostitution by the women's liberation movement in Norway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strøm, Agnete

    2009-11-01

    The Women's Front of Norway has worked against prostitution for 30 years. In 2008 a law criminalizing the purchase of a sexual act was passed in Norway. This article describes the struggle and the main actors in lobbying for the law. In the 1980s, we raised awareness of prostitution and trafficking in women in a study of the pornography industry, and targeted sex tourist agencies organizing trips to the Philippines and Thailand. In the 1990s, our members in trade unions got their unions to take a stand against prostitution and against legalizing prostitution as "work". In 2006, the Norwegian Confederation of Trade Unions Congress supported a law criminalizing the buyer of a sexual act; this had a strong impact on the centre-left coalition Government. We invited leaders of the Coalition Against Trafficking in Women to Norway to meet parliamentarians and trade unionists, and kept up the pressure. From the start, the focus was on ensuring that the situation for women in prostitution was ameliorated. Our demands have been for better social services and job training. Street prostitution, especially in Oslo, has been curbed, and a growth in the indoor market has not been reported. Our next task is participating in the awareness campaign "Buying Sex is not a Sport" in connection with the Soccer World Cup, South Africa, 2010.

  13. Primary health care development: where is Nepal after 30 years of Alma Ata Declaration?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karkee, R; Jha, N

    2010-01-01

    The year 2008 has witnessed the global conversation to return to tenets of Alma-Ata and to review its 30 years of journey. We reviewed Nepal's journey on Primary Health Care development: policy formulation, structure development, progress and constraints. Though Nepal has institutionalised the PHC approach in health policy, strategy and health care delivery system, this has not been effectively translated into actions, and the results are mixed. Nepal has gained impressive achievements in selective primary health care markers: 45.43% maternal mortality and 62.34% child mortality reduction during 1990-2005. But gain in comprehensive health care markers is not impressive: 18.7% Skilled Birth Attendant (4% in poorest quintile and 45% in richest quintile), 39% having access to improved sanitation and 55.7% of females are literate as compared to males. Socio-political environment until recently was not favourable for comprehensive primary health care, allowing limited health sector decentralisation and community empowerment. Health activities were focussed more on selective health care strategy in the form of disease control, immunisation, vitamin A supplementation, oral rehydration solution use and contraceptive use. Nepal's rural hilly geography posed great challenge on logistic supply, communication and retention of health workers rendering public health centres of low quality with negative perceptions of consumers. Nepal is on the pathway to build equitable comprehensive primary health care.

  14. 30 Years on Selected Issues in the Prevention of HIV among Persons Who Inject Drugs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. C. Des Jarlais

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available After 30 years of extensive research on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV among persons who inject drugs (PWID, we now have a good understanding of the critical issues involved. Following the discovery of HIV in 1981, epidemics among PWID were noted in many countries, and consensus recommendations for interventions for reducing injection related HIV transmission have been developed. While high-income countries have continued to develop and implement new Harm Reduction programs, most low-/middle-income countries have implemented Harm Reduction at very low levels. Modeling of combined prevention programming including needle exchange (NSP and antiretroviral therapy (ARV suggests that NSP be given the highest priority. Future HIV prevention programming should continue to provide Harm Reduction programs for PWID coupled with interventions aimed at reducing sexual transmission. As HIV continues to spread in low- and middle-income countries, it is important to achieve and maintain high coverage of Harm Reduction programs in these locations. As PWID almost always experience multiple health problems, it will be important to address these multiple problems within a comprehensive approach grounded in a human rights perspective.

  15. Recurrent ectopic pancreatitis of the jejunum and mesentery over a 30-year period

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    John CT Wong; Charlotte Robinson; Edward C Jones; Alison Harris; Charles Zwirewich; Robert Wakefield; Richard K Simons; Eric M Yoshida

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Ectopic pancreas is defined as pancreatic tissue found outside its usual anatomical position, with no ductal or vascular communication with the native pancreas. We describe a case of ectopic pancreas of the small bowel and mesentery causing recurrent episodes of pancreatitis, initially suspected on computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP), and confirmed on histological review of the resection. METHODS: A 67-year-old woman presented with clinical symptoms and biochemical evidence of pancreatitis. She had similar episodes over the past 30 years with unrevealing investi-gations, and was concluded to have idiopathic pancreatitis. She underwent CT and MRCP, with findings suggestive of ectopic pancreas, a diagnosis confirmed on histology of the resection. RESULTS: MRCP identified a mass in the proximal small bowel mesentery isointense to the native pancreas, with a small duct draining into a proximal jejunal loop. The resected specimen consisted of normal parenchyma with lobulated acinar tissue with scattered islets of Langerhans, an occasional ductular structure, and admixed areas of adipose tissue. The patient remained asymptomatic with normal biochemistry six months post-operatively. CONCLUSION: In an individual with abdominal pain, elevated serum amylase/lipase, but imaging findings of a normal native pancreas, ectopic pancreatitis should be considered, and can be evaluated by CT and MRCP.

  16. Surgical treatment of spasticity by selective posterior rhizotomy: 30 years experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salame, Khalil; Ouaknine, Georges E R; Rochkind, Semion; Constantini, Shlomo; Razon, Nissim

    2003-08-01

    Spasticity is a common neurologic disorder with adverse effects on the patient's function. Conservative management is unsuccessful in a significant proportion of patients and neurosurgical intervention should be considered. The mainstay of surgical treatment of spasticity is selective posterior rhizotomy, i.e., section of sensory nerve roots of the cauda equina. To report our experience with selective posterior rhizotomy in the treatment of spasticity. We retrospectively reviewed our experience in 154 patients who underwent SPR during 30 years. The indication for surgery was spasticity that significantly hindered the patient's function or care and was resistant to conservative treatment. All patients were evaluated for spasticity in the lower and upper limbs, the presence or absence of painful spasms, and sphincter disturbances. The decision as to which roots to be sectioned, and to what extent, was based mainly on clinical muscle testing. Reduction of spasticity in the lower limbs was obtained in every case, with improvement in movements in 86% of cases. Painful spasms were alleviated in 80% of cases. Amelioration of neurogenic bladder was observed in 42%. A minority of the patients also showed improvement in speech and cognitive performance. There was no perioperative mortality or major complications. SPR is a safe and effective method for the treatment of spasticity with long-lasting beneficial effects. We suggest that this method be considered more frequently for patients with spasticity that interferes with their quality of life.

  17. Measuring currents in submarine canyons: technological and scientific progress in the past 30 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, J. P.

    2011-01-01

    The development and application of acoustic and optical technologies and of accurate positioning systems in the past 30 years have opened new frontiers in the submarine canyon research communities. This paper reviews several key advancements in both technology and science in the field of currents in submarine canyons since the1979 publication of Currents in Submarine Canyons and Other Sea Valleys by Francis Shepard and colleagues. Precise placements of high-resolution, high-frequency instruments have not only allowed researchers to collect new data that are essential for advancing and generalizing theories governing the canyon currents, but have also revealed new natural phenomena that challenge the understandings of the theorists and experimenters in their predictions of submarine canyon flow fields. Baroclinic motions at tidal frequencies, found to be intensified both up canyon and toward the canyon floor, dominate the flow field and control the sediment transport processes in submarine canyons. Turbidity currents are found to frequently occur in active submarine canyons such as Monterey Canyon. These turbidity currents have maximum speeds of nearly 200 cm/s, much smaller than the speeds of turbidity currents in geological time, but still very destructive. In addition to traditional Eulerian measurements, Lagrangian flow data are essential in quantifying water and sediment transport in submarine canyons. A concerted experiment with multiple monitoring stations along the canyon axis and on nearby shelves is required to characterize the storm-trigger mechanism for turbidity currents.

  18. Humans reclaimed lands in NorthEastern Italy and artificial drainage networks: effects of 30 years of Agricultural Surface Water Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sofia, Giulia; Pizzulli, Federica; Tarolli, Paolo

    2017-04-01

    Agriculture and land-use management has changed drastically in Italy since the end of the Second World War, driven by local but also European agricultural policies. As a result of these changes in farming practices and land use, many drainage networks have changed producing a greater exposure to flooding with a broad range of impacts on society, also because of climate inputs coupling with the human drivers. This study focuses on two main points: which kind of land use and farming changes have been observed in the most recent years ( 30 years)? How do these changes interact with climate and soil conditions? An open challenge to understand how these changes influence the watershed response, is, in fact, to understand if rainfall characteristics and climate have a synergistic effect, if their interaction matters, or to understand what element has the greatest influence on the watershed response connected to agricultural changes. The work is based on a simple model of water infiltration due to soil properties, and a connected evaluation of the distributed surface water storage offered by artificial drainage networks in a study area in Veneto (north-eastern Italy). The analysis shows that economic changes control the development of agro-industrial landscapes, with effects on the hydrological response. However, these changes deeply interact with antecedent soil conditions and climate characteristics. Intense and irregular rainfall events and events with a high recurrence should be expected to be the most critical. The presented outcomes highlight the importance of understanding how agricultural practices can be the driver of or can be used to avoid, or at least mitigate, flooding. The proposed methods can be valuable tools in evaluating the costs and benefits of the management of water in agriculture to inform better policy decision-making. References Sofia G, Tarolli P. 2017. Hydrological Response to 30 years of Agricultural Surface Water Management. Land 6 (1): 3 DOI

  19. The Winter Rainfall of Malaysia

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Chen, Tsing-Chang; Tsay, Jenq-Dar; Yen, Ming-Cheng; Matsumoto, Jun

    2013-01-01

    .... The major cause of the rainfall maximum of Peninsular Malaysia is cold surge vortices (CSVs) and heavy rainfall/flood (HRF) events propagating from the Philippine area and Borneo. In contrast, the major cause of the rainfall maximum of Borneo is these rain-producing disturbances trapped in Borneo. Disturbances of the former group are formed by the cold sur...

  20. Changes in Extreme Events as Simulated by a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model for the Next 20-30 Years over China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Ji-Yun; SHI Ying; GAO Xue-Jie

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, the changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over the next 20-30 years (2021-2050) in relative to the present day (1986-2005) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario are analyzed based on a high-resolution climate change simulation performed by a regional climate model (the Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) RegCM3). The extreme indices of summer days (SU), frost days (FD), and growing season length (GSL) for temperature and simple daily intensity index (SDII), number of days with precipitation ≥10 mm d-1 (R10), and consecutive dry days (CDD) for precipitation are used as the indicators of the extremes. The results show that the indices simulated by RegCM3 in the present day show good agreement with the observed. A general increase in SU, a decrease in FD, and an increase in GSL are found to occur in the next 20-30 years over China. A general increase in SDII, an increase in R10 over western China, and a decrease in R10 in north, northeast, and central China are simulated by the model. Changes in CDD are characterized by a decrease in the north and an increase in the south and the Tibetan Plateau.

  1. Interannual variability of seasonal rainfall over the Cape south coast of South Africa and synoptic type association

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Engelbrecht, CJ

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available synoptic types by employing a clustering technique, the self-organizing map (SOM), on daily circulation data for the 33-year period from 1979 to 2011. Daily rainfall data are used to investigate interannual variability of seasonal rainfall within...

  2. Contrasting population trends of piscivorous seabirds in the Pribilof Islands: A 30-year perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrd, G. Vernon; Schmutz, Joel A.; Renner, Heather M.

    2008-08-01

    The Pribilof Islands provide nesting habitat for one of the largest concentrations of piscivorous seabirds in the North Pacific region. Pribilof breeding populations of black-legged and red-legged kittiwakes ( Rissa tridactyla and Rissa brevirostris), and common and thick-billed murres ( Uria aalge and Uria lomvia) are supported by a highly productive marine food web. Productivity and temperature in this area are influenced by winter sea ice that frequently reaches its maximum extent near the Pribilofs. Although St. George and St. Paul islands, the two largest of the Pribilof group, are situated only 60 km apart, St. George is within 25 km of the shelf break, but St. Paul is approximately 90 km away. In contrast, the local contribution of sea ice-edge productivity in the spring is frequently closer to St. Paul than to St. George. Central place foraging piscivorous seabirds nesting at St. Paul and St. George are likely differentially affected by the relative contributions of the shelf break and ice-edge environments based on juxtaposition. Within the past decade or so, sea ice in the Bering Sea has failed to reach the vicinity of the Pribilofs in some years, and predictions of warming in the future suggest the possibility that direct effects of the ice on the immediate Pribilof environment will be reduced. To evaluate the response of kittiwakes and murres on the two islands to conditions in their foraging environments, we examined population trends over the past 30 years based on data from the seabird monitoring program conducted by the Alaska Maritime National Wildlife Refuge and others. Spatial differences in trends have been more consistent than differences among species, with populations at St. Paul having more enduring declines than those at St. George. At St. George, black-legged kittiwakes and common murres have remained stable. Red-legged kittiwakes and thick-billed murres both declined, but began to rebound in the late 1980s, such that in 2005 population

  3. Contrasting population trends of piscivorous seabirds in the Pribilof Islands: A 30-year perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrd, G.V.; Schmutz, J.A.; Renner, H.M.

    2008-01-01

    The Pribilof Islands provide nesting habitat for one of the largest concentrations of piscivorous seabirds in the North Pacific region. Pribilof breeding populations of black-legged and red-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla and Rissa brevirostris), and common and thick-billed murres (Uria aalge and Uria lomvia) are supported by a highly productive marine food web. Productivity and temperature in this area are influenced by winter sea ice that frequently reaches its maximum extent near the Pribilofs. Although St. George and St. Paul islands, the two largest of the Pribilof group, are situated only 60 km apart, St. George is within 25 km of the shelf break, but St. Paul is approximately 90 km away. In contrast, the local contribution of sea ice-edge productivity in the spring is frequently closer to St. Paul than to St. George. Central place foraging piscivorous seabirds nesting at St. Paul and St. George are likely differentially affected by the relative contributions of the shelf break and ice-edge environments based on juxtaposition. Within the past decade or so, sea ice in the Bering Sea has failed to reach the vicinity of the Pribilofs in some years, and predictions of warming in the future suggest the possibility that direct effects of the ice on the immediate Pribilof environment will be reduced. To evaluate the response of kittiwakes and murres on the two islands to conditions in their foraging environments, we examined population trends over the past 30 years based on data from the seabird monitoring program conducted by the Alaska Maritime National Wildlife Refuge and others. Spatial differences in trends have been more consistent than differences among species, with populations at St. Paul having more enduring declines than those at St. George. At St. George, black-legged kittiwakes and common murres have remained stable. Red-legged kittiwakes and thick-billed murres both declined, but began to rebound in the late 1980s, such that in 2005 population

  4. A 30-year history of earthquake crisis communication in California and lessons for the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, L.

    2015-12-01

    The first statement from the US Geological Survey to the California Office of Emergency Services quantifying the probability of a possible future earthquake was made in October 1985 about the probability (approximately 5%) that a M4.7 earthquake located directly beneath the Coronado Bay Bridge in San Diego would be a foreshock to a larger earthquake. In the next 30 years, publication of aftershock advisories have become routine and formal statements about the probability of a larger event have been developed in collaboration with the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (CEPEC) and sent to CalOES more than a dozen times. Most of these were subsequently released to the public. These communications have spanned a variety of approaches, with and without quantification of the probabilities, and using different ways to express the spatial extent and the magnitude distribution of possible future events. The USGS is re-examining its approach to aftershock probability statements and to operational earthquake forecasting with the goal of creating pre-vetted automated statements that can be released quickly after significant earthquakes. All of the previous formal advisories were written during the earthquake crisis. The time to create and release a statement became shorter with experience from the first public advisory (to the 1988 Lake Elsman earthquake) that was released 18 hours after the triggering event, but was never completed in less than 2 hours. As was done for the Parkfield experiment, the process will be reviewed by CEPEC and NEPEC (National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council) so the statements can be sent to the public automatically. This talk will review the advisories, the variations in wording and the public response and compare this with social science research about successful crisis communication, to create recommendations for future advisories

  5. A continuing 30-year decline in water quality of Jiaojiang Estuary, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chun-ye WANG

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A quantitative description of a long-term series of aquatic environmental factors and their spatial distributions was generated using measured data from the Jiaojiang Estuary from 1982 to 2011. The aquatic environmental factors included suspended matter, salinity, and nutrients. Based on these factors, the aquatic ecosystem health in the Jiaojiang Estuary over the last 30 years was analyzed. The results indicated that the suspended matter concentration in the estuary was mainly affected by the amounts of suspended sediment and solid waste, with the value fluctuating over a long period, and the range of high concentration expanded continually; the salinity was mainly affected by precipitation and surface water resources, showing an overall decreasing trend, and the region with low salinity moved seaward and toward the reclamation areas; and the nutritional status, mainly affected by discharge of industrial wastewater and domestic sewage, was satisfactory in the 1980s and 1990s, but the status became severe in recent years. Reclamation had a great influence on these three factors: high reclamation strength led to a significant increase in the suspended matter concentration and a deterioration of the nutritional status, and the reclamation rate was negatively related with the salinity in the estuary. There was a significant positive correlation between the health status of the aquatic ecosystem and salinity, with a correlation coefficient of 0.93. The correlation coefficient between the health status and nutritional status was −0.71, while the correlation between the suspended matter concentration and health status was not as significant as that of the other two factors. The dynamics of the aquatic environment could be divided into four stages: sustainable health from the 1980s to the 1990s, continued deterioration from 2000 to 2003, improvement from 2004 to 2005, and secondary deterioration from 2006 to 2011. The Jiaojiang Estuary is faced with

  6. Congenital lobar emphysema: 30-year case series in two university hospitals

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    Daniele Cristina Cataneo

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To review the cases of patients with congenital lobar emphysema (CLE submitted to surgical treatment at two university hospitals over a 30-year period. METHODS: We reviewed the medical records of children with CLE undergoing surgical treatment between 1979 and 2009 at the Botucatu School of Medicine Hospital das Clínicas or the Mogi das Cruzes University Hospital. We analyzed data regarding symptoms, physical examination, radiographic findings, diagnosis, surgical treatment, and postoperative follow-up. RESULTS: During the period studied, 20 children with CLE underwent surgery. The mean age at the time of surgery was 6.9 months (range, 9 days to 4 years. All of the cases presented with symptoms at birth or during the first months of life. In all cases, chest X-rays were useful in defining the diagnosis. In cases of moderate respiratory distress, chest CT facilitated the diagnosis. One patient with severe respiratory distress was misdiagnosed with hypertensive pneumothorax and underwent chest tube drainage. Only patients with moderate respiratory distress were submitted to bronchoscopy, which revealed no tracheobronchial abnormalities. The surgical approach was lateral muscle-sparing thoracotomy. The left upper and middle lobes were the most often affected, followed by the right upper lobe. Lobectomy was performed in 18 cases, whereas bilobectomy was performed in 2 (together with bronchogenic cyst resection in 1 of those. No postoperative complications were observed. Postoperative follow-up time was at least 24 months (mean, 60 months, and no late complications were observed. CONCLUSIONS: Although CLE is an uncommon, still neglected disease of uncertain etiology, the radiological diagnosis is easily made and surgical treatment is effective.

  7. Spontaneus bilateral pedicle fracture 30 years after Harrington Instrumentation for idiopathic scoliosis: a case report

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    Obid Peter

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction Spontaneous fractures of the spine are a common entity. They usually occur in older people with osteoporosis. This case is presented on account of its rarity. To the best of the authors' knowledge only one case of an osteoporotic pedicle fracture after Harrington Instrumentation has been described before. Case presentation We report the case of a 46-year-old Caucasian woman who underwent surgery due to idiopathic scoliosis with a Harrington Instrumentation (T4 to L3 30 years ago. During the operation she was infected with hepatitis C while receiving erythrocyte concentrates and has suffered from liver cirrhosis since then. She presented with a sudden pain in her lower back and paraesthesia in both her legs but no other neurological symptoms. A computed tomography scan showed a bilateral pedicle fracture of L3 and an additional compression fracture of L4. In the first session we performed a dorsal stabilization with massive intraoperative bleeding and a postoperative failure of liver synthesis. In a second session an additional ventral augmentation was done. After the second operation she developed a hepatorenal syndrome. Both operations left the patient in a very critical state which led to a prolonged stay in the intensive care and rehabilitation unit. At her 12-month follow-up visit, she was free of complaints. Conclusion The un-physiological load of the spine after Harrington Instrumentation can lead to osteoporosis due to inactivity even in younger patients. Although these implants are not used anymore one should keep this possibility in mind when dealing with patients who have received Harrington rods in surgical procedures.

  8. Spontaneous resolution rates of vesicoureteral reflux in Brazilian children: a 30-year experience

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    Miguel Zerati Filho

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: We evaluated clinical characteristics of primary vesicoureteral reflux (VUR in infants in a 30-year period in Brazil with special reference to the relation of renal parenchymal damage to urinary tract infection and gender. MATERIALS AND METHODS: From 1975 through 2005, 417 girls (81.6% and 94 boys (18.4% with all grades of reflux were retrospectively reviewed. Patients were categorized by the worst grade of reflux, maintained on antibiotic prophylaxis and underwent yearly voiding cystourethrography until the reflux was resolved. VUR was considered resolved when a follow-up cystogram demonstrated no reflux. Surgical correction was recommended for those who fail medical therapy, severe renal scarring or persistent VUR. RESULTS: Grades I to V VUR resolved in 87.5%, 77.6%, 52.8%, 12.2% and 4.3%, respectively. Renal scars were present at presentation in 98 patients (19.2%. Neither gender nor bilaterality versus unilaterality was a helpful predictor of resolution. The significant difference was found among the curves using the log rank (p < 0.001 or Wilcoxon (p < 0.001 test. CONCLUSION: Despite the current use of screening prenatal ultrasound, many infants are still diagnosed as having vesicoureteral reflux only after the occurrence of urinary tract infection in our country. Scarring may be associated to any reflux grade and it may be initially diagnosed at any age but half of the scars are noted with higher grades of reflux (IV and V. The incidence of reflux related morbidity in children has significantly diminished over the last three decades.

  9. Childhood self-control and adult outcomes: results from a 30-year longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fergusson, David M; Boden, Joseph M; Horwood, L John

    2013-07-01

    A study by Moffitt et al. reported pervasive associations between childhood self-control and adult outcomes. The current study attempts to replicate the findings reported by Moffitt et al., adjusting these results for the confounding influence of childhood conduct problems. Data were gathered from the Christchurch Health and Development Study, a longitudinal birth cohort studied to age 30 years. Self-control during ages 6 to 12 years was measured analogously to that in Moffitt et al., using parent-, teacher-, and self-report methods. Outcome measures to age 30 included criminal offending, substance use, education/employment, sexual behavior, and mental health. Associations between self-control and outcomes were adjusted for possible confounding by gender, socioeconomic status (SES), IQ, and childhood conduct problems (ages 6-10). In confirmation of the findings of Moffitt et al., all outcomes except major depression were significantly (p self-control. Adjustment for gender, SES, and IQ reduced to some extent the magnitude of the associations. However, adjustment for childhood conduct disorder further reduced the magnitude of many of these associations, with only 4 of the 14 outcomes remaining statistically significantly (p self-control. After adjustment for gender, SES, IQ, and conduct problems, those individuals who scored higher in self-control had lower odds of violent offending and welfare dependence, were more likely to have obtained a university degree, and had higher income levels. The findings from this study suggest that observed linkages between a measure of childhood self-control and outcomes in adulthood were largely explained by the correlated effects of childhood conduct problems, SES, IQ, and gender. Copyright © 2013 American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Suicide in Scottish military veterans: a 30-year retrospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergman, B P; Mackay, D F; Smith, D J; Pell, J P

    2017-07-01

    Although reassuring data on suicide risk in UK veterans of the 1982 Falklands conflict and 1991 Gulf conflict have been published, there have been few studies on long-term overall suicide risk in UK veterans. To examine the risk of suicide in a broad population-based cohort of veterans in Scotland, irrespect ive of length of service or exposure to conflict, in comparison with people having no record of military service. A retrospective 30-year cohort study of 56205 veterans born 1945-85 and 172741 matched non-veterans, using Cox proportional hazard models to compare the risk of suicide and fatal self-harm overall, by sex, birth cohort, length of service and year of recruitment. There were 267 (0.48%) suicides in the veterans compared with 918 (0.53%) in non-veterans. The difference was not statistically significant overall [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.99; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.86-1.13]. The incidence was lower in younger veterans and higher in veterans aged over 40. Early service leavers were at non-significantly increased risk (adjusted HR 1.13; 95% CI 0.91-1.40) but only in the older age groups. Women veterans had a significantly higher risk of suicide than non-veteran women (adjusted HR 2.44; 95% CI 1.32-4.51, P < 0.01) and comparable risk to veteran men. Methods of suicide did not differ significantly between veterans and non-veterans, for either sex. The Scottish Veterans Health Study adds to the emerging body of evidence that there is no overall difference in long-term risk of suicide between veterans and non-veterans in the UK. However, female veterans merit further study.

  11. 30-year International Pediatric Craniofacial Surgery Partnership: Evolution from the “Third World” Forward

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swanson, Jordan W.; Skirpan, Jan; Stanek, Beata; Kowalczyk, Maciej

    2016-01-01

    Background: Craniofacial diseases constitute an important component of the surgical disease burden in low- and middle-income countries. The consideration to introduce craniofacial surgery into such settings poses different questions, risks, and challenges compared with cleft or other forms of plastic surgery. We report the evolution, innovations, and challenges of a 30-year international craniofacial surgery partnership. Methods: We retrospectively report a partnership between surgeons at the Uniwersytecki Szpital Dzieciecy in Krakow, Poland, and a North American craniofacial surgeon. We studied patient conditions, treatment patterns, and associated complications, as well as program advancements and limitations as perceived by surgeons, patient families, and hospital administrators. Results: Since partnership inception in 1986, the complexity of cases performed increased gradually, with the first intracranial case performed in 1995. In the most recent 10-year period (2006–2015), 85 patients have been evaluated, with most common diagnoses of Apert syndrome, Crouzon syndrome, and single-suture craniosynostosis. In the same period, 55 major surgical procedures have been undertaken, with LeFort III midface distraction, posterior vault distraction, and frontoorbital advancement performed most frequently. Key innovations have been the employment of craniofacial distraction osteogenesis, the use of Internet communication and digital photography, and increased understanding of how craniofacial morphology may improve in the absence of surgical intervention. Ongoing challenges include prohibitive training pathways for pediatric plastic surgeons, difficulty in coordinating care with surgeons in other institutions, and limited medical and material resources. Conclusion: Safe craniofacial surgery can be introduced and sustained in a resource-limited setting through an international partnership. PMID:27200233

  12. Alma-Ata 30 years on: revolutionary, relevant, and time to revitalise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawn, Joy E; Rohde, Jon; Rifkin, Susan; Were, Miriam; Paul, Vinod K; Chopra, Mickey

    2008-09-13

    In this paper, we revisit the revolutionary principles-equity, social justice, and health for all; community participation; health promotion; appropriate use of resources; and intersectoral action-raised by the 1978 Alma-Ata Declaration, a historic event for health and primary health care. Old health challenges remain and new priorities have emerged (eg, HIV/AIDS, chronic diseases, and mental health), ensuring that the tenets of Alma-Ata remain relevant. We examine 30 years of changes in global policy to identify the lessons learned that are of relevance today, particularly for accelerated scale-up of primary health-care services necessary to achieve the Millennium Development Goals, the modern iteration of the "health for all" goals. Health has moved from under-investment, to single disease focus, and now to increased funding and multiple new initiatives. For primary health care, the debate of the past two decades focused on selective (or vertical) versus comprehensive (horizontal) delivery, but is now shifting towards combining the strengths of both approaches in health systems. Debates of community versus facility-based health care are starting to shift towards building integrated health systems. Achievement of high and equitable coverage of integrated primary health-care services requires consistent political and financial commitment, incremental implementation based on local epidemiology, use of data to direct priorities and assess progress, especially at district level, and effective linkages with communities and non-health sectors. Community participation and intersectoral engagement seem to be the weakest strands in primary health care. Burgeoning task lists for primary health-care workers require long-term human resource planning and better training and supportive supervision. Essential drugs policies have made an important contribution to primary health care, but other appropriate technology lags behind. Revitalisng Alma-Ata and learning from three

  13. A continuing 30-year decline in water quality of Jiaojiang Estuary, China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chun-ye Wang; Bin Zhou; Bei Huang

    2015-01-01

    A quantitative description of a long-term series of aquatic environmental factors and their spatial distributions was generated using measured data from the Jiaojiang Estuary from 1982 to 2011. The aquatic environmental factors included suspended matter, salinity, and nutrients. Based on these factors, the aquatic ecosystem health in the Jiaojiang Estuary over the last 30 years was analyzed. The results indicated that the suspended matter concentration in the estuary was mainly affected by the amounts of suspended sediment and solid waste, with the value fluctuating over a long period, and the range of high concentration expanded continually;the salinity was mainly affected by precipitation and surface water resources, showing an overall decreasing trend, and the region with low salinity moved seaward and toward the reclamation areas;and the nutritional status, mainly affected by discharge of industrial wastewater and domestic sewage, was satisfactory in the 1980s and 1990s, but the status became severe in recent years. Reclamation had a great influence on these three factors: high reclamation strength led to a significant increase in the suspended matter concentration and a deterioration of the nutritional status, and the reclamation rate was negatively related with the salinity in the estuary. There was a significant positive correlation between the health status of the aquatic ecosystem and salinity, with a correlation coefficient of 0.93. The correlation coefficient between the health status and nutritional status was ?0.71, while the correlation between the suspended matter concentration and health status was not as significant as that of the other two factors. The dynamics of the aquatic environment could be divided into four stages: sustainable health from the 1980s to the 1990s, continued deterioration from 2000 to 2003, improvement from 2004 to 2005, and secondary deterioration from 2006 to 2011. The Jiaojiang Estuary is faced with imminent environmental

  14. Behaviour of the low degree terms of the Earth gravity field over the last 30 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biancale, R.; Lemoine, J.-M.; Reinquin, F.; Deleflie, F.; Ramillien, G.; Gégout, P.

    2012-04-01

    The GRACE mission has revealed since 2002 the recent evolution of the Earth's gravity field with a resolution down to 400 km, equivalent to degree and order 50 in spherical harmonics. Precise orbit computation for altimetric satellites can obviously gain by applying these variations, which are classically given, as in recent EIGEN models, as drifts and periodic terms (yearly and semi-yearly). However extrapolating these variations to pre-GRACE periods, mainly the drifts, can be problematic for orbit computation performances on former altimetric satellites. One option is to analyse older satellite data, in particular SLR data on geodetic satellites, in order to assess the very low degree variations of the gravity field and compare it to the GRACE determination. This can be done over the last 30 years, using for instance the Lageos and Lageos-2, Starlette and Stella satellites. The spherical harmonic degrees that can be accessed in this way are degrees 2 to 4. Additional information on degree 2 can be derived from the analysis of the Earth orientation parameters, pole coordinates and length of day (LOD), which have been observed over a long period with great accuracy by astrometric, satellite geodetic and extra-galactic means. Once corrected for atmospheric and oceanic load and velocity variations, the pole coordinates will principally bring information on the C(2,1) and S(2,1) coefficients, while the LOD will principally be connected with the C(2,0). Combining these two approaches allows a better observation of the temporal evolution of the gravity field over a long time span and a more realistic modelling of it for the precise orbit computation of past altimeter missions.

  15. Acute obstruction by Pannus in patients with aortic medtronic-hall valves: 30 years of experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellensen, Vegard Skalstad; Andersen, Knut Sverre; Vitale, Nicola; Davidsen, Einar Skulstad; Segadal, Leidulf; Haaverstad, Rune

    2013-12-01

    Acute dysfunction of mechanical aortic valve prostheses is a life-threatening adverse event. Pannus overgrowth, which is fibroelastic hyperplasia originating from the periannular area, is one cause of dysfunction. The aim of this study was to determine the annual incidence of readmittance resulting from acute obstruction caused by pannus during 30 years of observation in patients with Medtronic-Hall aortic valve prostheses and to analyze the risk factors associated with pannus development. From 1982 to 2004, 1,187 patients in our department underwent aortic valve replacement with Medtronic-Hall mechanical monoleaflet valve prostheses. As of December 31, 2012, 27 of these patients (2.3%) had presented with acute valve dysfunction caused by pannus obstruction. The annual incidence of pannus was 0.7 per 1,000. The median time from the primary operation to prosthetic dysfunction was 11.1 years (range, 1.2 to 26.8 years). Of the 20 patients who underwent reoperation, 2 died. Seven patients died before reoperation. Women had a higher risk for the development of obstructing pannus, and patients with pannus obstruction were younger. Valve size was not an independent risk factor. Women and younger patients are at higher risk for pannus development. When acute dysfunction by pannus is suspected in a mechanical aortic valve, an immediate echocardiogram and an emergency aortic valve replacement should be carried out because of the potential of a fatal outcome. Copyright © 2013 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. [Tubulo-villous rectal tumours. Results of surgical resection in relation to histotype (30 years' experience)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carditello, Antonio; Milone, Antonino; Paparo, Domenica; Anastasi, Giuliana; Mollo, Francesco; Stilo, Francesco

    2004-01-01

    Adenomas of the rectum are frequently found during endoscopic examination. We report on our 30 years of experience with the treatment of tubulo-villous adenomas based on histotype. Between 1971 and 2001, 104 villous tumours of the rectum were treated surgically. The patients' average age was 65 years. These were sessile tumours in 69% of cases, pedunculated in 17.5% and flowing tumours in 13.5%. The mean tumour size was 3 cm. They were associated with colon cancer in 15% of cases and with polyadenoma in 10%. They were located in the rectum within 0 to 6 cm of the anal margin in half the cases. These tumours were treated by local excision in 74 cases and by wide excision in 30 cases. The malignant potential of the tumours was 30%, including 10% invasive malignancy. There were no surgical fatalities, but a 6% medical fatality rate was registered. There was a 20% complication rate related to the surgical technique. Twenty patients were lost to follow-up. Out of 84 villous tumours, monitored over a mean survival period of 6.5 years, there were 24 recurrences: 18 underwent endoscopic excision and in 6 cases a wide resection. The various tumour resection techniques and the operative indications of variable difficulty are presented. It would seem, at present, that total resection of the rectum with a colo-anal anastomosis is the best treatment for large flowing villous tumours occupying almost the entire rectum. Thorough preoperative examination and the mastering of various surgical procedures should allow the most suitable choice of treatment for each individual case.

  17. CT imaging, then and now: a 30-year review of the economics of computed tomography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stockburger, Wayne T

    2004-01-01

    The first computed tomography (CT) scanner in the US was installed in June 1973 at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, MN. By the end of 1974, 44 similar systems had been installed at medical facilities around the country. Less than 4 years after the introduction of CT imaging in the US, at least 400 CT systems had been installed. The practice of pneumoencephalography was eliminated. The use of nuclear medicine brain scans significantly diminished. At the time, CT imaging was limited to head studies, but with the introduction of contrast agents and full body CT systems the changes in the practice of medicine became even more significant. CT imaging was hailed by the US medical community as the greatest advance in radiology since the discovery of x-rays. But the rapid spread of CT systems, their frequency of use, and the associated increase in healthcare costs combined to draw the attention of decision-makers within the federal and state governments, specifically to establish policies regarding the acquisition and use of diagnostic technologies. Initially, CT imaging was limited to neurological applications, but in the 30 years since its inception, capabilities and applications have been expanded as a result of the advancements in technology and software development. While neurological disorders are still a common reason for CT imaging, many other medical disciplines (oncology, emergency medicine, orthopedics, etc.) have found CT imaging to be the definitive tool for diagnostic information. As such, the clinical demand for CT imaging has steadily increased. Economically, the development of CT imaging has been one of success, even in the face of governmental action to restrict its acquisition and utilization by healthcare facilities. CTimaging has increased the cost of healthcare, but in turn has added unquantifiable value to the practice of medicine in the US.

  18. Length of Growing Period over Africa: Variability and Trends from 30 Years of NDVI Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed Y. Said

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The spatial distribution of crops and farming systems in Africa is determined by the duration of the period during which crop and livestock water requirements are met. The length of growing period (LGP is normally assessed from weather station data—scarce in large parts of Africa—or coarse-resolution rainfall estimates derived from weather satellites. In this study, we analyzed LGP and its variability based on the 1981–2011 GIMMS NDVI3g dataset. We applied a variable threshold method in combination with a searching algorithm to determine start- and end-of-season. We obtained reliable LGP estimates for arid, semi-arid and sub-humid climates that are consistent in space and time. This approach effectively mapped bimodality for clearly separated wet seasons in the Horn of Africa. Due to cloud contamination, the identified bimodality along the Guinea coast was judged to be less certain. High LGP variability is dominant in arid and semi-arid areas, and is indicative of crop failure risk. Significant negative trends in LGP were found for the northern part of the Sahel, for parts of Tanzania and northern Mozambique, and for the short rains of eastern Kenya. Positive trends occurred across western Africa, in southern Africa, and in eastern Kenya for the long rains. Our LGP analysis provides useful information for the mapping of farming systems, and to study the effects of climate variability and other drivers of change on vegetation and crop suitability.

  19. Bivariate Rainfall and Runoff Analysis Using Entropy and Copula Theories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lan Zhang

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Multivariate hydrologic frequency analysis has been widely studied using: (1 commonly known joint distributions or copula functions with the assumption of univariate variables being independently identically distributed (I.I.D. random variables; or (2 directly applying the entropy theory-based framework. However, for the I.I.D. univariate random variable assumption, the univariate variable may be considered as independently distributed, but it may not be identically distributed; and secondly, the commonly applied Pearson’s coefficient of correlation (g is not able to capture the nonlinear dependence structure that usually exists. Thus, this study attempts to combine the copula theory with the entropy theory for bivariate rainfall and runoff analysis. The entropy theory is applied to derive the univariate rainfall and runoff distributions. It permits the incorporation of given or known information, codified in the form of constraints and results in a universal solution of univariate probability distributions. The copula theory is applied to determine the joint rainfall-runoff distribution. Application of the copula theory results in: (i the detection of the nonlinear dependence between the correlated random variables-rainfall and runoff, and (ii capturing the tail dependence for risk analysis through joint return period and conditional return period of rainfall and runoff. The methodology is validated using annual daily maximum rainfall and the corresponding daily runoff (discharge data collected from watersheds near Riesel, Texas (small agricultural experimental watersheds and Cuyahoga River watershed, Ohio.

  20. Changes in physical fitness and nutritional status of schoolchildren in a period of 30 years (1980-2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerson Luis de Moraes Ferrari

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To analyze and compare the changes in physical fitness according to the nutritional status and gender of schoolchildren during a period of 30 years (1980-2010. Methods: Four cross-sectional evaluations were performed every 10 years in a period of 30 years from 1978 to 1980 (baseline, 1988-1990 (10 years, 1998-2000 (20 years and 2008-2010 (30 years. The sample consisted of 1291 schoolchildren (188 in baseline, 307 in 10 years; 375 in 20 years; 421 in 30 years of 10 and 11 years old. The variables assessed were: body weight (kg, height (cm, upper limb strength (ULS; kg, lower limb strength (LLS; cm, agility (seconds and velocity (seconds. Schoolchildren were classified as normal weight and overweight according to World Health Organization reference of body mass index for age and gender. Comparisons among periods applied ANOVA followed by Bonferroni test, with a significance level set at of p<0.01. Variation between baseline and 30 years was assessed by the percentage delta. Seven different percentile values were presented for each variable. Results: In eutrophic boys and girls, mean values of ULS (−16.7%; −3.2%, agility (−1.5%; −1.6% decreased significantly after 30 years (p<0.001. In the overweight boys and girls, only the average ULS (−15.5%; −12.5% decreased significantly over time (p<0.001. After 30 years, the ULS percentile changed in boys. Conclusions: The decline in physical fitness was greater in schoolchildren with normal weight than in those with overweight.

  1. Changes in physical fitness and nutritional status of schoolchildren in a period of 30 years (1980-2010)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrari, Gerson Luis de Moraes; Matsudo, Victor Keihan Rodrigues; Fisberg, Mauro

    2015-01-01

    Objective: To analyze and compare the changes in physical fitness according to the nutritional status and gender of schoolchildren during a period of 30 years (1980-2010). Methods: Four cross-sectional evaluations were performed every 10 years in a period of 30 years from 1978 to 1980 (baseline), 1988-1990 (10 years), 1998-2000 (20 years) and 2008-2010 (30 years). The sample consisted of 1291 schoolchildren (188 in baseline, 307 in 10 years; 375 in 20 years; 421 in 30 years) of 10 and 11 years old. The variables assessed were: body weight (kg), height (cm), upper limb strength (ULS; kg), lower limb strength (LLS; cm), agility (seconds) and velocity (seconds). Schoolchildren were classified as normal weight and overweight according to World Health Organization reference of body mass index for age and gender. Comparisons among periods applied ANOVA followed by Bonferroni test, with a significance level set at of p<0.01. Variation between baseline and 30 years was assessed by the percentage delta. Seven different percentile values were presented for each variable. Results: In eutrophic boys and girls, mean values of ULS (−16.7%; −3.2%), agility (−1.5%; −1.6%) decreased significantly after 30 years (p<0.001). In the overweight boys and girls, only the average ULS (−15.5%; −12.5%) decreased significantly over time (p<0.001). After 30 years, the ULS percentile changed in boys. Conclusions: The decline in physical fitness was greater in schoolchildren with normal weight than in those with overweight. PMID:26298653

  2. Eighteen- to 30-year-olds more likely to link to hepatitis C virus care: an opportunity to decrease transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, K L; Huang, W; Horsburgh, C R; Linas, B P; Assoumou, S A

    2016-04-01

    Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection incidence among 18- to 30-year-olds is increasing and guidelines recommend treatment of active injection drug users to limit transmission. We aimed to : measure linkage to HCV care among 18- to 30-year-olds and identify factors associated with linkage; compare linkage among 18- to 30-year-olds to that of patients >30 years. We used the electronic medical record at an urban safety net hospital to create a retrospective cohort with reactive HCV antibody between 2005 and 2010. We report seroprevalence and demographics of seropositive patients, and used multivariable logistic regression to identify factors associated with linkage to HCV care. We defined linkage as having evidence of HCV RNA testing after reactive antibody. Thirty two thousand four hundred and eighteen individuals were tested, including 8873 between 18 and 30 years. The seropositivity rate among those ages 18-30 was 10%. In multivariate analysis, among those 18-30, diagnosis location (Outpatient vs Inpatient/ED) (OR 1.78, 95% CI 1.28-2.49) and number of visits after diagnosis (OR 5.30, 95% CI 3.91-7.19) were associated with higher odds of linking to care. When we compared linkage in patients ages 18-30 to that among those older than 30, patients in the 18-30 years age group were more likely to link to HCV care than those in the older cohort even when controlling for gender, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, birthplace, diagnosis location and duration of follow-up. Eighteen- to 30-year-olds are more likely to link to HCV care than their older counterparts. During the interferon-free treatment era, there is an opportunity to prevent further HCV transmission in this population.

  3. More rain, less soil: long-term changes in rainfall intensity with climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Burt, Tim; Boardman, John; Foster, Ian D L; Howden, Nicholas

    2016-01-01

    This commentary discusses the role of long-term climate change in driving increases in soil erosion. Assuming that land use and management remain effectively constant, we discuss changes in the ability of rainfall to cause erosion (erosivity), using long daily rainfall data sets from south east England. An upward trend in mean rainfall per rain day is detected at the century-plus time scale. Implications for soil erosion and sediment delivery are discussed and evidence from other regions revi...

  4. Climatic effects of 30 years of landscape change over the Greater Phoenix, Arizona, region: 1. Surface energy budget changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgescu, M.; Miguez-Macho, G.; Steyaert, L.T.; Weaver, C.P.

    2009-01-01

    This paper is part 1 of a two-part study that evaluates the climatic effects of recent landscape change for one of the nation's most rapidly expanding metropolitan complexes, the Greater Phoenix, Arizona, region. The region's landscape evolution over an approximate 30-year period since the early 1970s is documented on the basis of analyses of Landsat images and land use/land cover (LULC) data sets derived from aerial photography (1973) and Landsat (1992 and 2001). High-resolution, Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), simulations (2-km grid spacing) are used in conjunction with consistently defined land cover data sets and associated biophysical parameters for the circa 1973, circa 1992, and circa 2001 time periods to quantify the impacts of intensive land use changes on the July surface temperatures and the surface radiation and energy budgets for the Greater Phoenix region. The main findings are as follows: since the early 1970s the region's landscape has been altered by a significant increase in urban/suburban land area, primarily at the expense of decreasing plots of irrigated agriculture and secondarily by the conversion of seminatural shrubland. Mean regional temperatures for the circa 2001 landscape were 0.12??C warmer than the circa 1973 landscape, with maximum temperature differences, located over regions of greatest urbanization, in excess of 1??C. The significant reduction in irrigated agriculture, for the circa 2001 relative to the circa 1973 landscape, resulted in dew point temperature decreases in excess of 1??C. The effect of distinct land use conversion themes (e.g., conversion from irrigated agriculture to urban land) was also examined to evaluate how the most important conversion themes have each contributed to the region's changing climate. The two urbanization themes studied (from an initial landscape of irrigated agriculture and seminatural shrubland) have the greatest positive effect on near-surface temperature, increasing maximum daily

  5. Past, present and future variations of extreme rainfall in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Ida Bülow

    of non-stationary extreme rainfall behaviour, in Denmark as well as worldwide. To provide recommendations on future design intensities it is necessary to explore and understand patterns of temporal variation in urban design rainfall and identify potential drivers behind past, present and future changes....... In addition, there is a need for an extreme value model that can include both regional and temporal explanatory variables, evaluate their significance and on this basis estimate the design rainfall. Both topics are addressed in this thesis. The analysed data material includes 137 years of observed daily...... is not reproduced well by the two climate models assessed. The thesis also presents a framework in which regional and temporal variability of extreme rainfall statistics can be modelled simultaneously. The framework is an extension of the regional model presently used for estimation of urban design intensities...

  6. Hybrid Wavelet-Postfix-GP Model for Rainfall Prediction of Anand Region of India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vipul K. Dabhi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available An accurate prediction of rainfall is crucial for national economy and management of water resources. The variability of rainfall in both time and space makes the rainfall prediction a challenging task. The present work investigates the applicability of a hybrid wavelet-postfix-GP model for daily rainfall prediction of Anand region using meteorological variables. The wavelet analysis is used as a data preprocessing technique to remove the stochastic (noise component from the original time series of each meteorological variable. The Postfix-GP, a GP variant, and ANN are then employed to develop models for rainfall using newly generated subseries of meteorological variables. The developed models are then used for rainfall prediction. The out-of-sample prediction performance of Postfix-GP and ANN models is compared using statistical measures. The results are comparable and suggest that Postfix-GP could be explored as an alternative tool for rainfall prediction.

  7. Flooding dynamics in a large low-gradient alluvial fan, the Okavango Delta, Botswana, from analysis and interpretation of a 30-year hydrometric record

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Wolski

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The Okavango Delta is a flood-pulsed wetland, which supports a large tourism industry and the subsistence of the local population through the provision of ecosystem services. In order to obtain insight into the influence of various environmental factors on flood propagation and distribution in this system, an analysis was undertaken of a 30-year record of hydrometric data (discharges and water levels from one of the Delta distributaries. The analysis revealed that water levels and discharges at any given channel site in this distributary are influenced by a complex interplay of flood wave and local rainfall inputs, modified by channel-floodplain interactions, in-channel sedimentation and technical interventions, both at the given site and upstream. Additionally, cyclical variation of channel vegetation due to intermittent nutrient loading, possibly sustained by nutrient recycling, may play a role. It is shown that short and long-term flood dynamics are mainly due to variation in floodplain flows. As a consequence, discharge data collected within the main channels of distributaries do not adequately represent flooding dynamics in the system. The paper contributes to the understanding of seasonal and long-term flood pulsing and their variation in low gradient systems of channels and floodplains.

  8. Relationships between atmospheric circulation indices and rainfall in Northern Algeria and comparison of observed and RCM-generated rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taibi, S.; Meddi, M.; Mahé, G.; Assani, A.

    2017-01-01

    This work aims, as a first step, to analyze rainfall variability in Northern Algeria, in particular extreme events, during the period from 1940 to 2010. Analysis of annual rainfall shows that stations in the northwest record a significant decrease in rainfall since the 1970s. Frequencies of rainy days for each percentile (5th, 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, 95th, and 99th) and each rainfall interval class (1-5, 5-10, 10-20, 20-50, and ≥50 mm) do not show a significant change in the evolution of daily rainfall. The Tenes station is the only one to show a significant decrease in the frequency of rainy days up to the 75th percentile and for the 10-20-mm interval class. There is no significant change in the temporal evolution of extreme events in the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles. The relationships between rainfall variability and general atmospheric circulation indices for interannual and extreme event variability are moderately influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Mediterranean Oscillation. Significant correlations are observed between the Southern Oscillation Index and annual rainfall in the northwestern part of the study area, which is likely linked with the decrease in rainfall in this region. Seasonal rainfall in Northern Algeria is affected by the Mediterranean Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation in the west. The ENSEMBLES regional climate models (RCMs) are assessed using the bias method to test their ability to reproduce rainfall variability at different time scales. The Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM), Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich (ETHZ), and Forschungszentrum Geesthacht (GKSS) models yield the least biased results.

  9. 30-year lidar observations of the stratospheric aerosol layer state over Tomsk (Western Siberia, Russia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuev, Vladimir V.; Burlakov, Vladimir D.; Nevzorov, Aleksei V.; Pravdin, Vladimir L.; Savelieva, Ekaterina S.; Gerasimov, Vladislav V.

    2017-02-01

    There are only four lidar stations in the world which have almost continuously performed observations of the stratospheric aerosol layer (SAL) state over the last 30 years. The longest time series of the SAL lidar measurements have been accumulated at the Mauna Loa Observatory (Hawaii) since 1973, the NASA Langley Research Center (Hampton, Virginia) since 1974, and Garmisch-Partenkirchen (Germany) since 1976. The fourth lidar station we present started to perform routine observations of the SAL parameters in Tomsk (56.48° N, 85.05° E, Western Siberia, Russia) in 1986. In this paper, we mainly focus on and discuss the stratospheric background period from 2000 to 2005 and the causes of the SAL perturbations over Tomsk in the 2006-2015 period. During the last decade, volcanic aerosol plumes from tropical Mt. Manam, Soufrière Hills, Rabaul, Merapi, Nabro, and Kelut and extratropical (northern) Mt. Okmok, Kasatochi, Redoubt, Sarychev Peak, Eyjafjallajökull, and Grímsvötn were detected in the stratosphere over Tomsk. When it was possible, we used the NOAA HYSPLIT trajectory model to assign aerosol layers observed over Tomsk to the corresponding volcanic eruptions. The trajectory analysis highlighted some surprising results. For example, in the cases of the Okmok, Kasatochi, and Eyjafjallajökull eruptions, the HYSPLIT air mass backward trajectories, started from altitudes of aerosol layers detected over Tomsk with a lidar, passed over these volcanoes on their eruption days at altitudes higher than the maximum plume altitudes given by the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program. An explanation of these facts is suggested. The role of both tropical and northern volcanic eruptions in volcanogenic aerosol loading of the midlatitude stratosphere is also discussed. In addition to volcanoes, we considered other possible causes of the SAL perturbations over Tomsk, i.e., the polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) events and smoke plumes from strong forest fires. At least

  10. The National Tumor Association Foundation (ANT: A 30 year old model of home palliative care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bonazzi Valeria

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Models of palliative care delivery develop within a social, cultural, and political context. This paper describes the 30-year history of the National Tumor Association (ANT, a palliative care organization founded in the Italian province of Bologna, focusing on this model of home care for palliative cancer patients and on its evaluation. Methods Data were collected from the 1986-2008 ANT archives and documents from the Emilia-Romagna Region Health Department, Italy. Outcomes of interest were changed in: number of patients served, performance status at admission (Karnofsky Performance Status score [KPS], length of participation in the program (days of care provided, place of death (home vs. hospital/hospice, and satisfaction with care. Statistical methods included linear and quadratic regressions. A linear and a quadratic regressions were generated; the independent variable was the year, while the dependent one was the number of patients from 1986 to 2008. Two linear regressions were generated for patients died at home and in the hospital, respectively. For each regression, the R square, the unstandardized and standardized coefficients and related P-values were estimated. Results The number of patients served by ANT has increased continuously from 131 (1986 to a cumulative total of 69,336 patients (2008, at a steady rate of approximately 121 additional patients per year and with no significant gender difference. The annual number of home visits increased from 6,357 (1985 to 904,782 (2008. More ANT patients died at home than in hospice or hospital; this proportion increased from 60% (1987 to 80% (2007. The rate of growth in the number of patients dying in hospital/hospice was approximately 40 patients/year (p 40 increased. Mean days of care for patients with KPS > 40 exceeded mean days for patients with KPS Conclusions The ANT home care model of palliative care delivery has been well-received, with progressively growing numbers

  11. Historical data reveal 30-year persistence of benthic fauna associations in heavily modified waterbody

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruth Callaway

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Baseline surveys form the cornerstone of coastal impact studies where altered conditions, for example through new infrastructure development, are assessed against a temporal reference state. They are snapshots taken before construction. Due to scarcity of relevant data prior to baseline surveys long-term trends can often not be taken into account. Particularly in heavily modified waterbodies this would however be desirable to control for changes in anthropogenic use over time as well as natural ecological variation. Here, the benthic environment of an industrialized embayment was investigated (Swansea Bay, Wales, UK where it is proposed to build a tidal lagoon that would generate marine renewable energy from the tidal range. Since robust long-term baseline data was not available, the value of unpublished historical benthos information from 1984 by a regional water company was assessed with the aim to improve certainty about the persistence of current benthic community patterns. A survey of 101 positions in 2014 identified spatially discrete benthic communities with areas of high and low diversity. Habitat characteristics including sediment properties and the proximity to a sewage outfall explained 17-35% of the variation in the community structure. Comparing the historical information from 1984 with 2014 revealed striking similarity in the benthic communities between those years, not just in their spatial distribution but also to a large extent in the species composition. The 30-year-old information confirmed spatial boundaries of discrete species associations and pinpointed a similar diversity hotspot. A group of five common species was found to be particularly persistent over time (Nucula nitidosa, Spisula elliptica, Spiophanes bombyx, Nephtys hombergii, Diastylis rathkei. According to the Infauna Quality Index (IQI linked to the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD the average ecological status for 2014 was ‘moderate’, but eleven samples

  12. Pichia anomala J121: a 30-year overnight near success biopreservation story.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schnürer, Johan; Jonsson, Anders

    2011-01-01

    Thirty years ago, the ascomycetous yeast Pichia anomala strain J121 was isolated from moist wheat grain stored under conditions of restricted air access. Early observations indicated that an inverse relationship existed between mould and P. anomala colony forming units in grain. This yeast strain was later found to have strong antifungal properties in laboratory, pilot and farm studies with high-moisture wheat under malfunctioning airtight storage. P. anomala had the highest inhibitory activity of 60 yeast species evaluated against the mould Penicillium roqueforti. It also demonstrated strong inhibitory effects against certain Gram-negative bacteria. P. anomala J121 possesses a number of physiological characteristics, i.e. capacity to grow under low pH, low water activity and low oxygen tension and ability to use a wide range of carbon and nitrogen sources, enabling it to act as an efficient biopreservative agent. The biocontrol effect in grain was enhanced by addition of glucose, mainly through formation of the volatile antimicrobial ethyl acetate. Animal feeding trials with P. anomala J121 inoculated grains, fed to chickens and beef cattle, demonstrated that mould control observed in vitro in small scale laboratory experiments could be extended to large scale farm trials. In addition, no adverse effects on animal weight gain, feed conversion, health or behaviour were observed. We have now studied P. anomala J121 biology, ecology and grain preservation ability for 30 years. Over this period, more than 40 scientific publications and five PhD theses have been written on different aspects of this yeast strain, extending from fundamental research on metabolism, genetics and molecular biology, all the way to practical farm-scale level. In spite of the well documented biopreservative ability of the yeast, it has to date been very difficult to create the right constellation of technical, agricultural and biotechnical industries necessary to reach a commercial launch of a

  13. Eco-region dependent lengthening of vegetation period over the past 30 years in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garonna, I.; De Jong, R.; De Wit, A.; Mücher, C. A.; Schmid, B.; Schaepman, M. E.

    2013-12-01

    Land Surface Phenology (LSP) is the most direct representation of intra-annual dynamics of vegetated land surfaces as observed from satellite observations. As such, LSP plays a key role in understanding the terrestrial carbon budget, as well as the response of terrestrial ecosystems to environmental change. Various studies have highlighted significant increases in vegetation activity over time (i.e. greening) over Europe in recent decades (e.g. Stöckli and Vidale, 2004), associated both with climatic changes and with large-scale human interventions including land-use change (de Jong et al., 2013). In this study, we characterize LSP changes in Europe's eco-regions for the last 30 years. We used the latest version of the 8-km Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index dataset (third generation, or NDVI-3g) to retrieve LSP metrics for Europe for the last three decades (1982-2011). Each year of NDVI data was processed using the Harmonic Analysis of Time Series (HANTS) algorithm, producing smooth NDVI annual profiles on a pixel-by-pixel basis. In order to derive LSP metrics for each year, namely Start, End and Length of Growing Season, we selected the Midpoint-pixel local threshold method, based on the White et al. (2009) inter-comparison. A landscape-based stratification, using the European Landscape Classification (LANMAP) (Mücher et al., 2010) allowed us to examine LSP characteristics and trends for the different European eco-regions. We demonstrate significant shifts in LSP metrics over the study period, with a general lengthening of the growing season in Europe of approximately 0.4 days year-1. LSP trends varied significantly between eco-regions, and we discuss potential reasons for these spatially diverse trends. de Jong, R., et al. (2013), Spatial relationship between climatologies and changes in global vegetation activity, Global Change Biology, 19(6), 1953-1964. Mücher, C. A., J. A. Klijn, D. M. Wascher, and

  14. Mortality of IgA nephropathy patients: a single center experience over 30 years.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hajeong Lee

    Full Text Available Research on the prognosis of IgA nephropathy (IgAN has focused on renal survival, with little information being available on patient survival. Hence, this investigation aimed to explore long-term patient outcome in IgAN patients. Clinical and pathological characteristics at the time of renal biopsy were reviewed in 1,364 IgAN patients from 1979 to 2008. The outcomes were patient death and end stage renal disease (ESRD progression. Overall, 71 deaths (5.3% and 277 cases of ESRD (20.6% occurred during 13,916 person-years. Ten-, 20-, and 30-year patient survival rates were 96.3%, 91.8%, and 82.7%, respectively. More than 50% patient deaths occurred without ESRD progression. Overall mortality was elevated by 43% from an age/sex-matched general population (GP (standardized mortality ratio [SMR], 1.43; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04-1.92. Men had comparable mortality to GP (SMR, 1.22; 95% CI, 0.82-1.75, but, in women, the mortality rate was double (SMR, 2.17; 95% CI, 1.21-3.57. Patients with renal risk factors such as initial renal dysfunction (estimated glomerular filgration rate <60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2; SMR, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.13-2.46, systolic blood pressure ≥ 140 mmHg (SMR, 1.88; 95% CI, 1.19-2.82 or proteinuria ≥ 1 g/day (SMR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.16-2.29 had an elevated mortality rate. Patients with preserved renal function, normotension, and proteinuria <1 g/day, however, had a similar mortality rate to GP. When risk stratification was performed by counting the number of major risk factors present at diagnosis, low-risk IgAN patients had a mortality rate equal to that of GP, whereas high-risk patients had a mortality rate higher than that of GP. This investigation demonstrated that overall mortality in IgAN patients was higher than that of GP. Women and patients with renal risk factors had a higher mortality than that of GP, Therefore, strategies optimized to alleviate major renal risk factors are warranted to reduce patient mortality.

  15. 30-Year Outcomes of Dental Implants Supporting Mandibular Fixed Dental Prostheses: A Retrospective Review of 4 Cases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turkyilmaz, Ilser; Tözüm, Tolga F

    2015-10-01

    The aim of this study was to present the 30-year outcomes of 28 implants supporting mandibular screw-retained fixed dental prostheses (FDPs). Dental charts of the 4 patients were carefully reviewed, and it was noticed that they received 28 implants and 5 screw-retained FDPs in 1983 and 1984. The chief concerns raised by these patients were poor retention of their complete dentures and decreased masticatory function at the time of treatment planning. Each dental care they received was recorded in the last 30 years. Implant survival, radiographic, and prosthodontic examinations were performed. No implants were lost after 30 years, giving the implant a survival rate of 100%. The average marginal bone level was 2.6 ± 0.5 mm at the last recall appointment. Of the 5 FDPs delivered, 1 needed replacement, indicating a prosthesis survival rate of 80%. The patients needed 21 repairs such as replacement of denture teeth/gold screws and hard relining, and 19 adjustments such as occlusal adjustments and acrylic resin contouring, over 30 years. This clinical report shows that machined-surface dental implants can successfully support screw-retained fixed dental prostheses for over 30 years, making dental implants an important dental treatment alternative compared to the traditional prosthetic treatment methods.

  16. The asymmetry of rainfall process

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YU RuCong; YUAN WeiHua; LI Jian

    2013-01-01

    Using hourly station rain gauge data in the warm season (May-October) during 1961-2006,the climatological features of the evolution of the rainfall process are analyzed by compositing rainfall events centered on the maximum hourly rainfall amount of each event.The results reveal that the rainfall process is asymmetric,which means rainfall events usually reach the maximum in a short period and then experience a relatively longer retreat to the end of the event.The effects of rainfall intensity,duration and peak time,as well as topography,are also considered.It is found that the asymmetry is more obvious in rainfall events with strong intensity and over areas with complex terrain,such as the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau,the Hengduan Mountains,and the Yungui Plateau.The asymmetry in short-duration rainfall is more obvious than that in long-duration rainfall,but the regional differences are weaker.The rainfall events that reach the maximum during 14:00-02:00 LST exhibit the strongest asymmetry and those during 08:00-14:00 LST show the weakest asymmetry.The rainfall intensity at the peak time stands out,which means that the rainfall intensity increases and decreases quickly both before and after the peak.These results can improve understanding of the rainfall process and provide metrics for the evaluation of climate models.Moreover,the strong asymmetry of the rainfall process should be highly noted when taking measures to defending against geological hazards,such as collapses,landslides and debris flows throughout southwestern China.

  17. Modelling Ecuador's rainfall distribution according to geographical characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tobar, Vladimiro; Wyseure, Guido

    2017-04-01

    It is known that rainfall is affected by terrain characteristics and some studies had focussed on its distribution over complex terrain. Ecuador's temporal and spatial rainfall distribution is affected by its location on the ITCZ, the marine currents in the Pacific, the Amazon rainforest, and the Andes mountain range. Although all these factors are important, we think that the latter one may hold a key for modelling spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall. The study considered 30 years of monthly data from 319 rainfall stations having at least 10 years of data available. The relatively low density of stations and their location in accessible sites near to main roads or rivers, leave large and important areas ungauged, making it not appropriate to rely on traditional interpolation techniques to estimate regional rainfall for water balance. The aim of this research was to come up with a useful model for seasonal rainfall distribution in Ecuador based on geographical characteristics to allow its spatial generalization. The target for modelling was the seasonal rainfall, characterized by nine percentiles for each one of the 12 months of the year that results in 108 response variables, later on reduced to four principal components comprising 94% of the total variability. Predictor variables for the model were: geographic coordinates, elevation, main wind effects from the Amazon and Coast, Valley and Hill indexes, and average and maximum elevation above the selected rainfall station to the east and to the west, for each one of 18 directions (50-135°, by 5°) adding up to 79 predictors. A multiple linear regression model by the Elastic-net algorithm with cross-validation was applied for each one of the PC as response to select the most important ones from the 79 predictor variables. The Elastic-net algorithm deals well with collinearity problems, while allowing variable selection in a blended approach between the Ridge and Lasso regression. The model fitting

  18. Bayesian spatiotemporal interpolation of rainfall in the Central Chilean Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ossa-Moreno, Juan; Keir, Greg; McIntyre, Neil

    2016-04-01

    Water availability in the populous and economically significant Central Chilean region is governed by complex interactions between precipitation, temperature, snow and glacier melt, and streamflow. Streamflow prediction at daily time scales depends strongly on accurate estimations of precipitation in this predominantly dry region, particularly during the winter period. This can be difficult as gauged rainfall records are scarce, especially in the higher elevation regions of the Chilean Andes, and topographic influences on rainfall are not well understood. Remotely sensed precipitation and topographic products can be used to construct spatiotemporal multivariate regression models to estimate rainfall at ungauged locations. However, classical estimation methods such as kriging cannot easily accommodate the complicated statistical features of the data, including many 'no rainfall' observations, as well as non-normality, non-stationarity, and temporal autocorrelation. We use a separable space-time model to predict rainfall using the R-INLA package for computationally efficient Bayesian inference, using the gridded CHIRPS satellite-based rainfall dataset and digital elevation models as covariates. We jointly model both the probability of rainfall occurrence on a given day (using a binomial likelihood) as well as amount (using a gamma likelihood or similar). Correlation in space and time is modelled using a Gaussian Markov Random Field (GMRF) with a Matérn spatial covariance function which can evolve over time according to an autoregressive model if desired. It is possible to evaluate the GMRF at relatively coarse temporal resolution to speed up computations, but still produce daily rainfall predictions. We describe the process of model selection and inference using an information criterion approach, which we use to objectively select from competing models with various combinations of temporal smoothing, likelihoods, and autoregressive model orders.

  19. Continuous rainfall generation for a warmer climate using observed temperature sensitivities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wasko, Conrad; Sharma, Ashish

    2017-01-01

    Continuous rainfall sequences are often used as inputs in hydrologic modeling, particularly where a probabilistic assessment is required. Continuous rainfall sequences provide a means for accounting of all aspects of rainfall that produce flooding, for example, not just the design rainfall event but also the rainfall prior to the extreme rainfall event. With the advent of climate change, higher temperatures have been associated with changes in rainfall, in particular intensifying rainfall extremes with less uniform temporal patterns. Given these demonstrated changes to extreme rainfall with temperature rise, there is a need to modify continuous rainfall generators to account for current and likely future changes in temperature. In this work we propose a novel method for simulating continuous rainfall sequences for a future warmer climate by conditioning parameters on their historical sensitivity with temperature. To demonstrate the proposed technique we use a one-dimensional Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulses model at two locations across Australia. The statistics used in the parameter estimation are conditioned on their historical sensitivity to average monthly temperature to simulate rainfall for a change in temperature. The results are validated by comparing the simulated rainfall against observations originating from differing temperatures and it is shown that the model captures the relative difference in the mean monthly rainfall and monthly maxima. Encouraged by these results we simulate rainfall for higher temperatures and capture expected changes to annual maxima and design temporal patterns for a warmer climate. While we demonstrate our methodology in the simulation of sub-daily rainfall using a specific model, the approach presented here can be applied to all weather generation schemes for projection in a warmer climate.

  20. Spatial Coherence of Tropical Rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratan, Ram; Venugopal, V.; Sukhatme, Jai; Murtugudde, Raghu

    2014-05-01

    We characterise the spatial coherence of tropical rain and its wet spells from observations (TRMM) and assess if models (CMIP5) are able to reproduce the observed features. Based on 15 years (1998-2012) of TRMM 3B42 (V7) 1-degree, daily rainfall, we estimate the spatial decorrelation scale (e-folding distance) of rain at each location in the tropics. A ratio of zonal to meridional spatial scales clearly illustrates that while rain patterns tend to be anisotropic (ratio of 4) over tropical ocean regions (particularly over Pacific ITCZ); over land regions, rain tends to be mostly isotropic. This contrast between ocean and land appears to be reasonably well captured by CMIP5 models, although the anisotropy (ratio) over ocean is much higher than in observations. A very curious behaviour in observations is the presence of a coherent band of spatial decorrelation lengths straddling the equator, in the East Pacific, reminiscent of a double ITCZ that some models tend to simulate. A similar analysis of wet spells of different durations suggests that the decorrelation scale is largely independent of the duration of wet spell.

  1. Intraseasonal Variability of Summer Monsoon Rainfall and Droughts over Central India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrivastava, Sourabh; Kar, Sarat C.; Sharma, Anu Rani

    2017-02-01

    Rainfall over Madhya Pradesh (MP) in central India has large intra-seasonal variability causing droughts and floods in many years. In this study, rainfall variability in daily and monthly scale over central India has been examined using observed data. Consistency among various datasets such as rainfall, surface temperature, soil moisture and evapotranspiration has been examined. These parameters are from various different sources and critical for drought monitoring and prediction. It is found that during weak phases of monsoon, central India receives deficit rainfall with weaker monsoon circulation. This phase is characterized by an anticyclonic circulation at 850 hPa centered on MP. The EOF analysis of daily rainfall suggests that the two leading modes explain about 23-24% of rainfall variability in intraseasonal timescale. These two modes represent drought/flood conditions over MP. Relationship of weak phases of rainfall over central India with real-time multivariate (RMM) indices of Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been examined. It is found that RMM-6, RMM-7, RMM-1 and RMM-2 describe the weak monsoon conditions over central India. However, frequency of drought occurrence over MP is more during RMM-7 phase. Surface temperature increases by about 0.5°-1° during weak phases of rainfall over this region. Soil moisture and evapotranspiration gradually reduce when rainfall reduces over the study region. Soil moisture and evapotranspiration anomalies have positive pattern during good rainfall events over central India and gradually reduce and become negative anomalies during weak phases.

  2. A 30-year perspective on psychosocial issues in lung cancer: how lung cancer "Came out of the Closet".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, Talia; Weinberger, Mark; Schwerd, Arielle M; Holland, Jimmie

    2012-11-01

    Psychological responses to lung cancer have changed over the past 30 years as perceptions of the disease have changed. Previously seen as a fatal diagnosis, it is now regarded as a cancer whose treatment is increasingly effective as the science of the disease advances. The stigma of smoking is diminishing as more is learned about genetic factors and as more nonsmokers are diagnosed. Support groups are now widely available. The increasing social support and greater knowledge of lung cancer provide a more supportive environment in which patients cope with lung cancer today compared with 30 years ago.

  3. Terrestrial cosmogenic 3He: where are we 30 years after its discovery?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blard, Pierre-Henri; Pik, Raphaël; Farley, Kenneth A.; Lavé, Jérôme; Marrocchi, Yves

    2016-04-01

    It is now 30 years since cosmogenic 3He has been detected for the first time in a terrestrial sample (Kurz, 1986). 3He is now a widely used geochemical tool in many fields of Earth sciences: volcanology, tectonics, paleoclimatology. 3He has the advantage to have a high "production rate" to "detection limit" ratio, allowing surfaces as young as hundred of years to be dated. Although its nuclear stability implies several limitations, it moreover represents a useful alternative to 10Be in mafic environments. This contribution is a review of the progresses that have been accomplished since this discovery, and discuss strategies to improve both the accuracy and the precision of this geochronometer. 1) Measurement of cosmogenic 3He Correction of magmatic 3He. To estimate the non-cosmogenic magmatic 3He, Kurz (1986) invented a two steps method involving crushing of phenocrysts (to analyze the isotopic ratio of the magmatic component), followed by a subsequent melting of the sample, to extract the remaining components, including the cosmogenic 3He: 3Hec = 3Hemelt -4Hemelt x (3He/4He)magmatic (1) Several studies suggested that the preliminary crushing may induce a loss of cosmogenic 3He (Hilton et al., 1993; Yokochi et al., 2005; Blard et al., 2006), implying an underestimate of the cosmogenic 3He measurement. However, subsequent work did not replicate these observations (Blard et al., 2008; Goerhing et al., 2010), suggesting an influence of the used apparatus. An isochron method (by directly melting several phenocrysts aliquots) is an alternative to avoid the preliminary crushing step (Blard and Pik, 2008). Atmospheric contamination. Protin et al. (in press) provides robust evidences for a large and irreversible contamination of atmospheric helium on silicate surfaces. This unexpected behavior may reconcile the contrasted observations about the amplitude of crushing loss. This undesirable atmospheric contamination is negligible if grain fractions smaller than 150 mm are

  4. A retrospective analysis of heterophoria values in a clinical population aged 18 to 30 years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N.T. Makgaba

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Information on heterophoria values in South Africans  is  scanty. The  purpose  of  this  paper therefore, is to present information on the distribution of heterophoria in a clinical popula-tion aged 18 to 30 years, which hitherto is not available. The data presented here was obtained from  the  record  cards  of  475  black  South African  patients  examined  at  the  Optometry clinic, University of Limpopo (Turfloop cam-pus between 2000 and 2005. The patients were examined by final year students under the supervision  of  qualified  optometrists.  Heterophoria was  measured  for  each  patient  using  the  von Graefe  method.  The  horizontal  heterophoria for distance vision (6 m ranged from 16 prism diopters (pd esophoria to 12 pd exophoria with a mean of 0.74 pd exophoria (SD = ± 2.84 pd. For  distance  vision,  esophoria  ranged  from 0.5 to 16 pd with a mean of 3.08 pd (SD = ± 3.09, while exophoria ranged from 0.5 pd to 12 pd with a mean of 2.21 pd (SD = 1.82 pd. For near vision (0.4 m, the horizontal phorias ranged from 17 pd esophoria to 15 pd exopho-ria with a mean of 3.84 pd exophoria (SD = ± 4.80 pd. The near esophorias ranged from 0.5 to 17 pd with a mean 4.88 pd (SD = ± 3.41, while the exophorias ranged from 1.0 to 15 pd with a mean of 6.30 pd (SD = ± 2.58. Vertical heterophoria for distance vision ranged from 5 to 3 pd right hyperphoria with a mean of 0.05 pd right hyperphoria (SD = ± 0.76 whereas at near it ranged from 4 to 6 pd right hyperphoria with a mean of 0.08 pd right hypophoria (SD =  ±  0.96.  The  distributions  of  heterophoria at distance and near were non-normal.  There was  no  significant  gender  variation  in  the horizontal  values  for  distance  vision  and  the vertical  (distance  and  near  ones.  However, there was a statistically significant gender varia-tion  in  the  near  horizontal  values  (p

  5. Probabilistic rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence using a Bayesian approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berti, M.; Martina, M.; Franceschini, S.; Pignone, S.; Simoni, A.; Pizziolo, M.

    2012-04-01

    resulted in landslides must be considered in the analysis. The result is a value of landslide probability (from 0 to 1) for each combination of the selected rainfall variables. The method has been applied to the historical dataset of the Emilia-Romagna Region (Italy). The dataset contains more than 9000 landslide records, for 4141 of which the date of occurrence is reported with a daily accuracy. Among these, 2741 landslides are characterized by a well-defined triggering rainfall (objectively identifiable in terms of duration and intensity) suitable for the analysis. Rainfall that non resulted in landslides account for more than 250000 events. The results clearly show that landslide triggering in the study area is strongly related to rainfall event parameters (duration, intensity, total rainfall) while antecedent rainfall seem to be less important. Moreover, the lines of equal Bayes probability in the rainfall duration- intensity chart are roughly parallel to the regional threshold proposed by Guzzetti et al. (2007), which in our case indicates a landslide probability of about 0.1. The abrupt increase of landslide probability in the duration-intensity plane indicates a radical change of state of the system, proving the existence of a real physical threshold.

  6. Impact of rainfall spatial variability on Flash Flood Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douinot, Audrey; Roux, Hélène; Garambois, Pierre-André; Larnier, Kevin

    2014-05-01

    According to the United States National Hazard Statistics database, flooding and flash flooding have caused the largest number of deaths of any weather-related phenomenon over the last 30 years (Flash Flood Guidance Improvement Team, 2003). Like the storms that cause them, flash floods are very variable and non-linear phenomena in time and space, with the result that understanding and anticipating flash flood genesis is far from straightforward. In the U.S., the Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) estimates the average number of inches of rainfall for given durations required to produce flash flooding in the indicated county. In Europe, flash flood often occurred on small catchments (approximately 100 km2) and it has been shown that the spatial variability of rainfall has a great impact on the catchment response (Le Lay and Saulnier, 2007). Therefore, in this study, based on the Flash flood Guidance method, rainfall spatial variability information is introduced in the threshold estimation. As for FFG, the threshold is the number of millimeters of rainfall required to produce a discharge higher than the discharge corresponding to the first level (yellow) warning of the French flood warning service (SCHAPI: Service Central d'Hydrométéorologie et d'Appui à la Prévision des Inondations). The indexes δ1 and δ2 of Zoccatelli et al. (2010), based on the spatial moments of catchment rainfall, are used to characterize the rainfall spatial distribution. Rainfall spatial variability impacts on warning threshold and on hydrological processes are then studied. The spatially distributed hydrological model MARINE (Roux et al., 2011), dedicated to flash flood prediction is forced with synthetic rainfall patterns of different spatial distributions. This allows the determination of a warning threshold diagram: knowing the spatial distribution of the rainfall forecast and therefore the 2 indexes δ1 and δ2, the threshold value is read on the diagram. A warning threshold diagram is

  7. A first-order assessment of climate change effects on rainfall erosivity and soil erosion in New South Wales, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Bofu; Murphy, Brian; Vaze, Jai; Rawson, Andrew

    2010-05-01

    Rainfall has shown considerable secular variation and statistically significant change on the time scale of decades in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. The climate change predictions seem to suggest an increased rainfall intensity for the region. To assess the likely impact of climate change on rainfall erosivity for 13 sites in NSW, a daily rainfall erosivity model was used to compare rainfall erosivity values using historical rainfall data and adjusted rainfall data representing future climate scenarios. To use the rainfall erosivity model, 6-min rainfall intensity data from the 13 sites were used to calibrate the model. The historical rainfall data were available for the period of 112 years (1895 - 2006) for the 13 sites. Adjusted rainfall data for 112 years were provided based on output from Global Climate Models, namely CSIRO-MK3.0 (CSIRO, Australia), MIROC-M (Centre for Climate Research, Japan); MIUB (Meteorological Institute of the University of Bonn, Germany); MRI (Meteorological Research Institute, Japan). The rainfall erosivity model was run for each of the 13 sites, and mean annual, seasonal rainfall erosivity values were contrasted for the present and future climate scenarios. In addition, rainfall erosivity values were compared for average recurrence intervals of 2, 10, and 100 years so that changes to rainfall erosivity during extreme erosive events can be assessed. The results show rainfall erosivity would increase by about 4.6% on average, and the increase occurs mostly in summer (December-January-February). Output from all 4 models suggests that rainfall erosivity would decrease in winter months. Spatially, the change to rainfall erosivity is quite variable, with greater increase mostly occurring along the coast with a temperate climate. As mean annual soil loss is linearly proportional to rainfall erosion, impact on soil loss of a similar magnitude is therefore implied for the 13 sites in NSW.

  8. A 30+ Year AVHRR LAI and FAPAR Climate Data Record: Algorithm Description and Validation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Claverie

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In- land surface models, which are used to evaluate the role of vegetation in the context of global climate change and variability, LAI and FAPAR play a key role, specifically with respect to the carbon and water cycles. The AVHRR-based LAI/FAPAR dataset offers daily temporal resolution, an improvement over previous products. This climate data record is based on a carefully calibrated and corrected land surface reflectance dataset to provide a high-quality, consistent time-series suitable for climate studies. It spans from mid-1981 to the present. Further, this operational dataset is available in near real-time allowing use for monitoring purposes. The algorithm relies on artificial neural networks calibrated using the MODIS LAI/FAPAR dataset. Evaluation based on cross-comparison with MODIS products and in situ data show the dataset is consistent and reliable with overall uncertainties of 1.03 and 0.15 for LAI and FAPAR, respectively. However, a clear saturation effect is observed in the broadleaf forest biomes with high LAI (>4.5 and FAPAR (>0.8 values.

  9. Extreme rainfall-induced landslide changes based on landslide susceptibility in China, 1998-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Weiyue; Liu, Chun; Hong, Yang

    2017-04-01

    Nowadays, landslide has been one of the most frequent and seriously widespread natural hazards all over the world. Rainfall, especially heavy rainfall is a trigger to cause the landslide occurrence, by increasing soil pore water pressures. In China, rainfall-induced landslides have risen up over to 90% of the total number. Rainfall events sometimes generate a trend of extremelization named rainfall extremes that induce the slope failure suddenly and severely. This study shows a method to simulate the rainfall-induced landslide spatio-temporal distribution on the basis of the landslide susceptibility index. First, the study on landslide susceptibility in China is introduced. We set the values of the index to the range between 0 and 1. Second, we collected TRMM 3B42 precipitation products spanning the years 1998-2015 and extracted the daily rainfall events greater than 50mm/day as extreme rainfall. Most of the rainfall duration time that may trigger a landslide has resulted between 3 hours and 45 hours. The combination of these two aspects can be exploited to simulate extreme rainfall-induced landslide distribution and illustrate the changes in 17 years. This study shows a useful tool to be part of rainfall-induced landslide simulation methodology for landslide early warning.

  10. Analysis of spatial autocorrelation patterns of heavy and super-heavy rainfall in Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rousta, Iman; Doostkamian, Mehdi; Haghighi, Esmaeil; Ghafarian Malamiri, Hamid Reza; Yarahmadi, Parvane

    2017-09-01

    Rainfall is a highly variable climatic element, and rainfall-related changes occur in spatial and temporal dimensions within a regional climate. The purpose of this study is to investigate the spatial autocorrelation changes of Iran's heavy and super-heavy rainfall over the past 40 years. For this purpose, the daily rainfall data of 664 meteorological stations between 1971 and 2011 are used. To analyze the changes in rainfall within a decade, geostatistical techniques like spatial autocorrelation analysis of hot spots, based on the Getis-Ord G i statistic, are employed. Furthermore, programming features in MATLAB, Surfer, and GIS are used. The results indicate that the Caspian coast, the northwest and west of the western foothills of the Zagros Mountains of Iran, the inner regions of Iran, and southern parts of Southeast and Northeast Iran, have the highest likelihood of heavy and super-heavy rainfall. The spatial pattern of heavy rainfall shows that, despite its oscillation in different periods, the maximum positive spatial autocorrelation pattern of heavy rainfall includes areas of the west, northwest and west coast of the Caspian Sea. On the other hand, a negative spatial autocorrelation pattern of heavy rainfall is observed in central Iran and parts of the east, particularly in Zabul. Finally, it is found that patterns of super-heavy rainfall are similar to those of heavy rainfall.

  11. A new method for spatio-temporal prediction of rainfall- induced landslide

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    Geological condition and rainfall are two most principal conditions inducing landslides in the Chongqing region. By analyzing the forming conditions of rainfall-induced landslides, a new method for spatio-temporal prediction of rainfall-induced landslide is brought forward on the basis of grading and overlapping geological condition and rainfall factor in this paper. At first, semi-quantitative assessment and grading for the geological condition of a certain area or slope can be carried out with the multi-factor interactive matrix. Then the severity of rainfall in that area is grading according to the maximum daily rainfall and the total rainfall in a rainfall course. Finally, the "landslide probability judgement factor" can be worked out through grading and overlapping "geological condition influencing factor" and "rainfall influencing factor", by which the landslide can be graded into 4 grades, they are landslide extremely easily happening, landslide easily happening, landslide difficultly happening and landslide hardly ever happening respectively. More accurate spatio-temporal prediction of rainfall-induced landslides can come true on the ground of detailed geological survey of some dangerous slopes in an area and more precise weather forecast. Finally, the reliability and feasibility of carrying out the spatio-temporal prediction of rainfall-induced landslides with the method of "two factors" grading and overlapping are validated by the example of Jipazi landslide.

  12. 30 years after Chernobyl. What would we make better today?; 30 Jahre nach Tschernobyl. Was wuerden wir heute besser machen?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bieringer, Jacqueline [Bundesamt fuer Strahlenschutz, Freiburg (Germany). Fachgebiet SW 2.5; Hajek, Michael [Oesterreichischer Verband fuer Strahlenschutz, Wien (Austria). Vienna International Centre; Maringer, Franz Josef [BEV - Bundesamt fuer Eich- und Vermessungswesen, Wien (Austria). Referat fuer ionisierende Strahlung und Radioaktivitaet; Murith, Christophe [Bundesamt fuer Gesundheit (BAG), Bern (Switzerland). Abt. Strahlenschutz; Steinkopff, Thomas [Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach (Germany); Wershofen, Herbert [Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt, Braunschweig (Germany). Lab. 6.301; Hefner, Alfred; Maushart, Rupprecht; Steger, Ferdinand

    2016-05-01

    The reactions of the authorities responsible for the measurements of radioactivity in the environment in Germany, Switzerland and Austria ore shown. The further development of the readiness and the possibilities to measure in the last 30 years are described. Also the question of activity measurements after a nuclear accident by single members of the population is dealt with.

  13. Hard and soft tissue imaging of the temporomandibular joint 30 years after diagnosis of osteoarthrosis and internal derangement

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    deLeeuw, R; Boering, G; vanderKuijl, B; Stegenga, B

    1996-01-01

    Purpose: This article describes the clinical and imaging findings in the temporomandibular joints (TMJs) of patients 30 years after the initial diagnosis of osteoarthrosis and internal derangement. Patients and Methods: Fifty-five TMJs with a history of osteoarthrosis and internal derangement and 37

  14. TEMPOROMANDIBULAR-JOINT OSTEOARTHROSIS - CLINICAL AND RADIOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS 30 YEARS AFTER NONSURGICAL TREATMENT - A PRELIMINARY-REPORT

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    DELEEUW, R; BOERING, G; STEGENGA, B; DEBONT, LGM

    1993-01-01

    Thirty years after being treated nonsurgically for osteoarthrosis and internal derangement, 14 women and seven men were re-examined clinically and radiographically. The results of this examination were compared with those recorded before and after treatment 30 years ago, and with those of a matched

  15. Examining the Factors That Influence Students' Science Learning Processes and Their Learning Outcomes: 30 Years of Conceptual Change Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Jing-Wen; Yen, Miao-Hsuan; Liang, Jia-Chi; Chiu, Mei-Hung; Guo, Chorng-Jee

    2016-01-01

    This study used content analysis to examine the most studied conceptual change factors that influence students' science learning processes and their learning outcomes. The reviewed research included empirical studies published since Posner et al. proposed their conceptual change model 30 years ago (from 1982 to 2011). One hundred sixteen SSCI…

  16. Longitudinal Pathways between Maternal Mental Health in Infancy and Offspring Romantic Relationships in Adulthood: A 30-Year Prospective Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slominski, Lisa; Sameroff, Arnold; Rosenblum, Katherine; Kasser, Tim

    2011-01-01

    Longitudinal pathways between maternal mental health in infancy and offspring romantic relationship outcomes in adulthood were examined using a 30-year prospective longitudinal study of 196 mothers and their children. Structural equation modeling revealed that maternal mental health at 30 months was related to offspring relationship status and…

  17. Combination of radar and daily precipitation data to estimate meaningful sub-daily point precipitation extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bárdossy, András; Pegram, Geoffrey

    2017-01-01

    The use of radar measurements for the space time estimation of precipitation has for many decades been a central topic in hydro-meteorology. In this paper we are interested specifically in daily and sub-daily extreme values of precipitation at gauged or ungauged locations which are important for design. The purpose of the paper is to develop a methodology to combine daily precipitation observations and radar measurements to estimate sub-daily extremes at point locations. Radar data corrected using precipitation-reflectivity relationships lead to biased estimations of extremes. Different possibilities of correcting systematic errors using the daily observations are investigated. Observed gauged daily amounts are interpolated to unsampled points and subsequently disaggregated using the sub-daily values obtained by the radar. Different corrections based on the spatial variability and the subdaily entropy of scaled rainfall distributions are used to provide unbiased corrections of short duration extremes. Additionally a statistical procedure not based on a matching day by day correction is tested. In this last procedure as we are only interested in rare extremes, low to medium values of rainfall depth were neglected leaving a small number of L days of ranked daily maxima in each set per year, whose sum typically comprises about 50% of each annual rainfall total. The sum of these L day maxima is first iterpolated using a Kriging procedure. Subsequently this sum is disaggregated to daily values using a nearest neighbour procedure. The daily sums are then disaggregated by using the relative values of the biggest L radar based days. Of course, the timings of radar and gauge maxima can be different, so the method presented here uses radar for disaggregating daily gauge totals down to 15 min intervals in order to extract the maxima of sub-hourly through to daily rainfall. The methodologies were tested in South Africa, where an S-band radar operated relatively continuously at

  18. Assessing future climatic changes of rainfall extremes at small spatio-temporal scales

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen; Madsen, Henrik;

    2013-01-01

    in relation to urban flooding. The present study focuses on high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) skill in simulating sub-daily rainfall extremes. Temporal and spatial characteristics of output from three different RCM simulations with 25 km resolution are compared to point rainfall extremes estimated......Climate change is expected to influence the occurrence and magnitude of rainfall extremes and hence the flood risks in cities. Major impacts of an increased pluvial flood risk are expected to occur at hourly and sub-hourly resolutions. This makes convective storms the dominant rainfall type...

  19. Recent Trends in the Regime of Extreme Rainfall in the West African Sahel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lebel, T.; Panthou, G.; Vischel, T.; Quantin, G.

    2015-12-01

    West Africa is known for having experienced an extreme drought starting at the end of the 1960s that is recognized to be the greatest climatic signal at regional scale since the beginning of meteorological measurements. Despite a moderate recovery of the annual precipitations since the 1990s in the Central and Eastern Sahel, rainfall over the last two decades remains lower by 15% than during the period 1950-1970. Paradoxically these persisting dry conditions have been accompanied by a dramatic increase of flood fatalities especially over the recent 10 years. Using a homogeneous dataset of 41 daily rainfall series covering the period 1950-2010, an integrated regional approach based on the statistical extreme value theory was then used to reduce the local sampling effects and to provide robust estimates of intense rainfall distributions to be analyzed in conjunction with the annual rainfall series. This led to identify some key rainfall regime characteristics related to the decadal scale rainfall variability over the region. The main factor of the rainfall deficit during the great 1970-2000 drought was a lower occurrence of rainy days, extreme rainy days being the most affected. Over the last ten years, the Sahelian rainfall regime is characterized by a lasting deficit of the number of rainy days, while at the same time the extreme rainfall occurrence is on the rise. As a consequence the proportion of annual rainfall associated with extreme rainfall has increased from 17% in the 1970-1990 years to 19% in the 1991-2000 years and to 22% in the 2001-2010 years. This tends to support the idea that a more extreme climate has been observed over the last 10 years, with a persisting deficit of the occurrence of rainfall associated with an increase of the occurrence of extreme daily rainfall. Our results also suggest that the intensification of the precipitation regime has likely contributed to the aggravation of the hydrological risks in the Sahel.

  20. Space–Time Characterization of Rainfall Field in Tuscany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro Mazza

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Precipitation during the period 2001–2016 over the northern and central part of Tuscany was studied in order to characterize the rainfall regime. The dataset consisted of hourly cumulative rainfall series recorded by a network of 801 rain gauges. The territory was divided into 30 × 30 km2 square areas where the annual and seasonal Average Cumulative Rainfall (ACR and its uncertainty were estimated using the Non-Parametric Ordinary Block Kriging (NPOBK technique. The choice of area size was a compromise that allows a satisfactory spatial resolution and an acceptable uncertainty of ACR estimates. The daily ACR was estimated using a less computationally expensive technique, averaging the cumulative rainfall measurements in the area. The trend analysis of annual and seasonal ACR time series was performed by means of the Mann–Kendall test. Four climatic zones were identified: the north-western was the rainiest, followed by the north-eastern, northcentral and south-central. An overall increase in precipitation was identified, more intense in the north-west, and determined mostly by the increase in winter precipitation. On the entire territory, the number of rainy days, mean precipitation intensity and sum of daily ACR in four intensity groups were evaluated at annual and seasonal scale. The main result was a magnitude of the ACR trend evaluated as 35 mm/year, due mainly to an increase in light and extreme precipitations. This result is in contrast with the decreasing rainfall detected in the past decades.

  1. Comparative Analysis of Data Mining Techniques for Malaysian Rainfall Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suhaila Zainudin

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate change prediction analyses the behaviours of weather for a specific time. Rainfall forecasting is a climate change task where specific features such as humidity and wind will be used to predict rainfall in specific locations. Rainfall prediction can be achieved using classification task under Data Mining. Different techniques lead to different performances depending on rainfall data representation including representation for long term (months patterns and short-term (daily patterns. Selecting an appropriate technique for a specific duration of rainfall is a challenging task. This study analyses multiple classifiers such as Naïve Bayes, Support Vector Machine, Decision Tree, Neural Network and Random Forest for rainfall prediction using Malaysian data. The dataset has been collected from multiple stations in Selangor, Malaysia. Several pre-processing tasks have been applied in order to resolve missing values and eliminating noise. The experimental results show that with small training data (10% from 1581 instances Random Forest correctly classified 1043 instances. This is the strength of an ensemble of trees in Random Forest where a group of classifiers can jointly beat a single classifier.

  2. Investigation on rainfall extremes events trough a geoadditive model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bocci, C.; Caporali, E.; Petrucci, A.; Rossi, G.

    2012-04-01

    Rainfall can be considered a very important variable, and rainfall extreme events analysis of great concern for the enormous impacts that they may have on everyday life particularly when related to intense rainfalls and floods, and hydraulic risk management. On the catchment area of Arno River in Tuscany, Central Italy, a geoadditive mixed model of rainfall extremes is developed. Most of the territory of Arno River has suffered in the past of many severe hydro-geological events, with high levels of risk due to the vulnerability of a unique artistic and cultural heritage. The area has a complex topography that greatly influences the precipitation regime. The dataset is composed by the time series of the annual maxima of daily rainfall recorded in about 400 rain gauges, spatially distributed over the catchment area of about 8.800 km2. The record period covers mainly the second half of 20th century. The rainfall observations are assumed to follow generalized extreme value distributions whose locations are spatially dependent and where the dependence is captured using a geoadditive model. In particular, since rainfall has a natural spatial domain and a significant spatial variability, a spatial hierarchical model for extremes is used. The spatial hierarchical models, in fact, take into account data from all locations, borrowing strength from neighbouring locations when they estimate parameters and are of great interest when small set of data is available, as in the case of rainfall extreme values. Together with rain gauges location variables further physiographic variables are investigated as explanation variables. The implemented geoadditive mixed model of spatially referenced time series of rainfall extreme values, is able to capture the spatial dynamics of the rainfall extreme phenomenon. Since the model shows evidence of a spatial trend in the rainfall extreme dynamic, the temporal dynamic and the time influence can be also taken into account. The implemented

  3. Rainfall analysis for Indian monsoon region using the merged rain gauge observations and satellite estimates: Evaluation of monsoon rainfall features

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    S K Roy Bhowmik; Ananda K Das

    2007-06-01

    Objective analysis of daily rainfall at the resolution of 1° grid for the Indian monsoon region has been carried out merging dense land rainfall observations and INSAT derived precipitation estimates. This daily analysis, being based on high dense rain gauge observations was found to be very realistic and able to reproduce detailed features of Indian summer monsoon. The inter-comparison with the observations suggests that the new analysis could distinctly capture characteristic features of the summer monsoon such as north–south oriented belt of heavy rainfall along the Western Ghats with sharp gradient of rainfall between the west coast heavy rain region and the rain shadow region to the east, pockets of heavy rainfall along the location of monsoon trough/low, over the east central parts of the country, over north–east India, along the foothills of Himalayas and over the north Bay of Bengal. When this product was used to assess the quality of other available standard climate products (CMAP and ECMWF reanalysis) at the grid resolution of 2.5°, it was found that the orographic heavy rainfall along Western Ghats of India was poorly identified by them. However, the GPCC analysis (gauge only) at the resolution of 1° grid closely discerns the new analysis. This suggests that there is a need for a higher resolution analysis with adequate rain gauge observations to retain important aspects of the summer monsoon over India. The case studies illustrated show that the daily analysis is able to capture large-scale as well as mesoscale features of monsoon precipitation systems. This study with data of two seasons (2001 and 2003) has shown sufficiently promising results for operational application, particularly for the validation of NWP models.

  4. Estimating Flood Quantiles on the Basis of Multi-Event Rainfall Simulation – Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jarosińska Elżbieta

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an approach to estimating the probability distribution of annual discharges Q based on rainfall-runoff modelling using multiple rainfall events. The approach is based on the prior knowledge about the probability distribution of annual maximum daily totals of rainfall P in a natural catchment, random disaggregation of the totals into hourly values, and rainfall-runoff modelling. The presented Multi-Event Simulation of Extreme Flood method (MESEF combines design event method based on single-rainfall event modelling, and continuous simulation method used for estimating the maximum discharges of a given exceedance probability using rainfall-runoff models. In the paper, the flood quantiles were estimated using the MESEF method, and then compared to the flood quantiles estimated using classical statistical method based on observed data.

  5. What rainfall events trigger landslides on the West Coast US?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biasutti, Michela; Seager, Richard; Kirschbaum, Dalia

    2016-04-01

    A dataset of landslide occurrences compiled by collating google news reports covers 9 full years of data. We show that, while this compilation cannot provide consistent and widespread monitoring everywhere, it is adequate to capture the distribution of events in the major urban areas of the West Coast US and it can be used to provide a quantitative relationship between landslides and rainfall events. The case of the Seattle metropolitan area is presented as an example. The landslide dataset shows a clear seasonality in landslide occurrence, corresponding to the seasonality of rainfall, modified by the accumulation of soil moisture as winter progresses. Interannual variability of landslide occurrences is also linked to interannual variability of monthly rainfall. In most instances, landslides are clustered on consecutive days or at least within the same pentad and correspond to days of large rainfall accumulation at the regional scale. A joint analysis of the landslide data and of the high-resolution PRISM daily rainfall accumulation shows that on days when landslides occurred, the distribution of rainfall was shifted, with rainfall accumulation higher than 10mm/day being more common. Accumulations above 50mm/day much increase the probability of landslides, including the possibility of a major landslide event (one with multiple landslides in a day). The synoptic meteorological conditions associated with these major events show a mid-tropospheric ridge to the south of the target area steering a surface low and bringing enhanced precipitable water towards the Pacific North West. The interaction of the low-level flow with the local orography results in instances of a strong Puget Sound Convergence Zone, with widespread rainfall accumulation above 30mm/day and localized maxima as high as 100mm/day or more.

  6. Spatio-temporal variability of the polar middle atmosphere. Insights from over 30 years of research satellite observations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lahoz, W.A.; Orsolini, Y.J.; Manney, G.L.; Minschwaner, K.; Allen, D.R.; Errera, Q.; Jackson, D.R.; Lambert, A.; Lee, J.; Pumphrey, H.; Schwartz, M.; Wu, D.

    2012-07-01

    We discuss the insights that research satellite observations from the last 30 years have provided on the spatio-temporal variability of the polar middle atmosphere. Starting from the time of the NASA LIMS (Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere) and TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) instruments, both launched in 1978, we show how these observations have augmented our knowledge of the polar middle atmosphere, in particular how information on ozone and tracers has augmented our knowledge of: (i) the spatial and temporal characteristics of the wintertime polar stratosphere and the summertime circulation; and (ii) the roles of chemistry and transport in determining the stratospheric ozone distribution. We address the increasing joint use of observations and models, in particular in data assimilation, in contributing to this understanding. Finally, we outline requirements to allow continuation of the wealth of information on the polar middle atmosphere provided by research satellites over the last 30 years.(Author)

  7. Public Release of 30-year (1979-2008) NLDAS High-resolution Products - Analysis and Validation for Soil Moisture and Temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Y.; Ek, M. B.; Wood, E. F.; Luo, L.; Sheffield, J.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Livneh, B.; Mocko, D. M.; Cosgrove, B.; Meng, C. J.; Wei, H.; Koren, V.; Schaake, J. C.; Mo, K. C.; Mitchell, K.

    2009-12-01

    The NCEP Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) collaborated with its CPPA (Climate Prediction Program of the Americas) partners to develop a North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS, http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/nldas). The NLDAS includes multi-model analysis/monitoring products to focus on drought and flooding monitoring. NLDAS products consist of 30-year (1979-2008) retrospective and 0.5-year near realtime (2009-current time, with a 4-day lag) water (i.e., evapotranspiration, runoff, canopy evaporation, sublimation) and energy (sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, ground heat flux, net radiation) fluxes, and state (i.e., soil moisture with different layers, soil temperatures, snow water equivalent, snow depth, snow cover) variables with an hourly temporal resolution and a 1/8th degree spatial resolution for four land surface models (NCEP/Noah, NASA/Mosaic, OHD/SAC, and Princeton/VIC). This study used common hourly land surface forcing derived from NCEP's retrospective and realtime North American Regional Reanalysis System (NARR) except for precipitation. The precipitation forcing is anchored to a daily gauge-only precipitation analysis over CONUS that applies the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) correction. This daily precipitation analysis is then temporally disaggregated to hourly precipitation amounts using stage II radar and satellite retrieved precipitation products. The NARR-based surface downward solar radiation is bias-corrected using seven years (1997-2004) of GOES satellite-derived solar radiation retrievals. This presentation summarizes the NLDAS concept, configuration, forcing data, the four land surface models and their output. All 30-year hourly forcing and hourly outputs from four land surface models are stored on a NCEP public server, which can be download by public users. In this presentation, we analyze soil moisture and temperature for four models and validate them using the Illinois soil

  8. Fessenheim: 30 years of nuclear fuel operation; Fessenheim: 30 ans d'exploitation du combustible nucleaire

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abgrall, G. [Centrale de Fessenheim, EDF, 68 - Dessenheim (France)

    2008-03-15

    Fessenheim units 1 and 2 are the first two 900 MW PWR put into operation in France (1977). This article reviews 30 years of change, optimization and feedback experience from Fessenheim, concerning: -) fuel assemblies (particularly the design of some components like grids, ends and guide tubes), -) the reload fuel management (to get a higher unloading burn-up), -) the refueling machine and tools (heavy modifications to reduce the human factor), and -) work organization (work shifts and staff training). (A.C.)

  9. Attrition in a 30-year follow-up of a perinatal birth risk cohort: factors change with age

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jyrki Launes

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Background. Attrition is a major cause of potential bias in longitudinal studies and clinical trials. Attrition rate above 20% raises concern of the reliability of the results. Few studies have looked at the factors behind attrition in follow-ups spanning decades.Methods. We analyzed attrition and associated factors of a 30-year follow-up cohort of subjects who were born with perinatal risks for neurodevelopmental disorders. Attrition rates were calculated at different stages of follow-up and differences between responders and non-responders were tested. To find combinations of variables influencing attrition and investigate their relative importance at birth, 5, 9, 16 and 30 years of follow-up we used the random forest classification.Results. Initial loss of potential participants was 13%. Attrition was 16% at five, 24% at nine, 35% at 16 and 46% at 30 years. The only group difference that emerged between responders and non-responders was in socioeconomic status (SES. The variables identified by random forest classification analysis were classified into Birth related, Development related and SES related. Variables from all these categories contributed to attrition, but SES related variables were less important than birth and development associated variables. Classification accuracy ranged between 0.74 and 0.96 depending on age.Discussion. Lower SES is linked to attrition in many studies. Our results point to the importance of the growth and development related factors in a longitudinal study. Parents’ decisions to participate depend on the characteristics of the child. The same association was also seen when the child, now grown up, decided to participate at 30 years. In addition, birth related medical variables are associated with the attrition still at the age of 30. Our results using a data mining approach suggest that attrition in longitudinal studies is influenced by complex interactions of a multitude of variables, which are not

  10. Enhanced Orographic Tropical Rainfall: An Study of the Colombia's rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peñaranda, V. M.; Hoyos Ortiz, C. D.; Mesa, O. J.

    2015-12-01

    Convection in tropical regions may be enhanced by orographic barriers. The orographic enhancement is an intensification of rain rates caused by the forced lifting of air over a mountainous structure. Orographic heavy rainfall events, occasionally, comes along by flooding, debris flow and substantial amount of looses, either economics or human lives. Most of the heavy convective rainfall events, occurred in Colombia, have left a lot of victims and material damages by flash flooding. An urgent action is required by either scientific communities or society, helping to find preventive solutions against these kind of events. Various scientific literature reports address the feedback process between the convection and the local orographic structures. The orographic enhancement could arise by several physical mechanism: precipitation transport on leeward side, convection triggered by the forcing of air over topography, the seeder-feeder mechanism, among others. The identification of the physical mechanisms for orographic enhancement of rainfall has not been studied over Colombia. As far as we know, orographic convective tropical rainfall is just the main factor for the altitudinal belt of maximum precipitation, but the lack of detailed hydro-meteorological measurements have precluded a complete understanding of the tropical rainfall in Colombia and its complex terrain. The emergence of the multifractal theory for rainfall has opened a field of research which builds a framework for parsimonious modeling of physical process. Studies about the scaling behavior of orographic rainfall have found some modulating functions between the rainfall intensity probability distribution and the terrain elevation. The overall objective is to advance in the understanding of the orographic influence over the Colombian tropical rainfall based on observations and scaling-analysis techniques. We use rainfall maps, weather radars scans and ground-based rainfall data. The research strategy is

  11. Spatial analysis of rainfall trends in the region of Valencia (east Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Luís, M.; Raventós, J.; González-Hidalgo, J. C.; Sánchez, J. R.; Cortina, J.

    2000-10-01

    This paper examines the spatial and temporal rainfall characteristics of the region of Valencia, Western Mediterranean Basin (east Spain), during the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) normal period 1961-1990. The study used a dense and homogeneous daily precipitation database comprising 97 rain-gauge stations. Total and monthly rainfall concentrations have been studied in the context of their mean values, interannual variability and spatial diversification. Trends have been analysed using both parametric and non-parametric tests. In order to establish the spatial distribution of rainfall patterns and to detect homogeneous areas with similar rainfall evolution, a statistic based on the Cramér-von Mises test is proposed. The kriging interpolation methods for characterizing the magnitude of observed changes is used.Areas with contrasting rainfall evolution are identified. In more humid areas, a significant decrease in annual rainfall associated with significant increases in interannual rainfall variability is observed. In inland zones, decreases in total annual rainfall and increases in interannual variability are less clear, but there are indications of an increase in monthly rainfall concentration. In these inland zones, where more forest and woodland areas are located and forest fires are frequent, the observed trends could greatly affect desertification through changes in the disturbance regime. In more arid areas, local variability in rainfall evolution is higher and no significant changes can be defined.

  12. Changing patterns in rainfall extremes in South Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamruzzaman, Mohammad; Beecham, Simon; Metcalfe, Andrew V.

    2017-02-01

    Daily rainfall records from seven stations in South Australia, with record lengths from 50 to 137 years and a common period of 36 years, are investigated for evidence of changes in the statistical distribution of annual total and annual average of monthly daily maxima. In addition, the monthly time series of monthly totals and monthly daily maxima are analysed for three stations for which records exceed 100 years. The monthly series show seasonality and provide evidence of a reduction in rainfall when the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is negative, which is modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). However, the monthly series do not provide any evidence of a consistent trend or of any changes in the seasonal pattern. Multivariate analyses, typically used in statistical quality control (SQC), are applied to time series of yearly totals and of averages of the 12 monthly daily maxima, during the common 36-year period. Although there are some outlying points in the charts, there is no evidence of any trend or step changes. However, some supplementary permutation tests do provide weak evidence of an increase of variability of rainfall measures. Furthermore, a factor analysis does provide some evidence of a change in the spatial structure of extremes. The variability of a factor which represents the difference between extremes in the Adelaide Hills and the plains increases in the second 18 years relative to the first 18 years. There is also some evidence that the mean of this factor has increased in absolute magnitude.

  13. Variability in rainfall at monitoring stations and derivation of a long-term rainfall intensity record in the Grand Canyon Region, Arizona, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caster, Joshua; Sankey, Joel B.

    2016-04-11

    In this study, we examine rainfall datasets of varying temporal length, resolution, and spatial distribution to characterize rainfall depth, intensity, and seasonality for monitoring stations along the Colorado River within Marble and Grand Canyons. We identify maximum separation distances between stations at which rainfall measurements might be most useful for inferring rainfall characteristics at other locations. We demonstrate a method for applying relations between daily rainfall depth and intensity, from short-term high-resolution data to lower-resolution longer-term data, to synthesize a long-term record of daily rainfall intensity from 1950–2012. We consider the implications of our spatio-temporal characterization of rainfall for understanding local landscape change in sedimentary deposits and archaeological sites, and for better characterizing past and present rainfall and its potential role in overland flow erosion within the canyons. We find that rainfall measured at stations within the river corridor is spatially correlated at separation distances of tens of kilometers, and is not correlated at the large elevation differences that separate stations along the Colorado River from stations above the canyon rim. These results provide guidance for reasonable separation distances at which rainfall measurements at stations within the Grand Canyon region might be used to infer rainfall at other nearby locations along the river. Like other rugged landscapes, spatial variability between rainfall measured at monitoring stations appears to be influenced by canyon and rim physiography and elevation, with preliminary results suggesting the highest elevation landform in the region, the Kaibab Plateau, may function as an important orographic influence. Stations at specific locations within the canyons and along the river, such as in southern (lower) Marble Canyon and eastern (upper) Grand Canyon, appear to have strong potential to receive high-intensity rainfall that

  14. Enhancing a rainfall-runoff model to assess the impacts of BMPs and LID practices on storm runoff.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yaoze; Ahiablame, Laurent M; Bralts, Vincent F; Engel, Bernard A

    2015-01-01

    Best management practices (BMPs) and low impact development (LID) practices are increasingly being used as stormwater management techniques to reduce the impacts of urban development on hydrology and water quality. To assist planners and decision-makers at various stages of development projects (planning, implementation, and evaluation), user-friendly tools are needed to assess the effectiveness of BMPs and LID practices. This study describes a simple tool, the Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment-LID (L-THIA-LID), which is enhanced with additional BMPs and LID practices, improved approaches to estimate hydrology and water quality, and representation of practices in series (meaning combined implementation). The tool was used to evaluate the performance of BMPs and LID practices individually and in series with 30 years of daily rainfall data in four types of idealized land use units and watersheds (low density residential, high density residential, industrial, and commercial). Simulation results were compared with the results of other published studies. The simulated results showed that reductions in runoff volume and pollutant loads after implementing BMPs and LID practices, both individually and in series, were comparable with the observed impacts of these practices. The L-THIA-LID 2.0 model is capable of assisting decision makers in evaluating environmental impacts of BMPs and LID practices, thereby improving the effectiveness of stormwater management decisions.

  15. Markov modulated Poisson process models incorporating covariates for rainfall intensity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thayakaran, R; Ramesh, N I

    2013-01-01

    Time series of rainfall bucket tip times at the Beaufort Park station, Bracknell, in the UK are modelled by a class of Markov modulated Poisson processes (MMPP) which may be thought of as a generalization of the Poisson process. Our main focus in this paper is to investigate the effects of including covariate information into the MMPP model framework on statistical properties. In particular, we look at three types of time-varying covariates namely temperature, sea level pressure, and relative humidity that are thought to be affecting the rainfall arrival process. Maximum likelihood estimation is used to obtain the parameter estimates, and likelihood ratio tests are employed in model comparison. Simulated data from the fitted model are used to make statistical inferences about the accumulated rainfall in the discrete time interval. Variability of the daily Poisson arrival rates is studied.

  16. Rainfall erosivity in New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klik, Andreas; Haas, Kathrin; Dvorackova, Anna; Fuller, Ian

    2014-05-01

    Rainfall and its kinetic energy expressed by the rainfall erosivity is the main driver of soil erosion processes by water. The Rainfall-Runoff Erosivity Factor (R) of the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation is one oft he most widely used parameters describing rainfall erosivity. This factor includes the cumulative effects of the many moderate-sized storms as well as the effects oft he occasional severe ones: R quantifies the effect of raindrop impact and reflects the amopunt and rate of runoff associated with the rain. New Zealand is geologically young and not comparable with any other country in the world. Inordinately high rainfall and strong prevailing winds are New Zealand's dominant climatic features. Annual rainfall up to 15000 mm, steep slopes, small catchments and earthquakes are the perfect basis for a high rate of natural and accelerated erosion. Due to the multifacted landscape of New Zealand its location as island between the Pacific and the Tasmanian Sea there is a high gradient in precipitation between North and South Island as well as between West and East Coast. The objective of this study was to determine the R-factor for the different climatic regions in New Zealand, in order to create a rainfall erosivity map. We used rainfall data (breakpoint data in 10-min intervals) from 34 gauging stations for the calcuation of the rainfall erosivity. 15 stations were located on the North Island and 19 stations on the South Island. From these stations, a total of 397 station years with 12710 rainstorms were analyzed. The kinetic energy for each rainfall event was calculated based on the equation by Brown and Foster (1987), using the breakpoint precipitation data for each storm. On average, a mean annual precipitation of 1357 mm was obtained from the 15 observed stations on the North Island. Rainfall distribution throughout the year is relatively even with 22-24% of annual rainfall occurring in spring , fall and winter and 31% in summer. On the South Island

  17. Road accidents and rainfall in a large Australian city.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keay, Kevin; Simmonds, Ian

    2006-05-01

    We investigate the impact of rainfall on daily road accidents in the metropolitan area of Melbourne, Australia, over 1987-2002. Our analysis from several viewpoints of the accident count, which has been normalised for variation in traffic volume, indicated that the effect of rainfall is multifaceted. Owing to a large non-linear trend a subdivision into three epochs (1987-1991, 1992-1996 and 1997-2002) was made. Nominal daytime and nighttime as well as 3h raw counts were available for the first two epochs only. Generally, the effect of rainfall across the epochs shows a tendency for larger values in autumn with smaller values in spring. For the daily, daytime and nighttime cases there is an approximate 40% decrease in both the volume-normalised dry and wet means from the first to second epoch. Since the second epoch is wetter than the first, and both dry and wet cases are affected in a similar way, then it appears that a non-weather influence is at work. It is suggested that law enforcement measures may be largely responsible. We obtained a conservative estimate of relative risk of an accident in wet conditions based on a matched-pair analysis of 3h dry and wet periods over the first two epochs (1987-1996). As with other studies we find that the risk is greater than unity in almost all cases suggesting that the presence of rainfall consistently represents a driving hazard. Rainfall occurring after a dry spell has an enhanced effect on the volume-normalised accident count as the spell duration increases. The effect of dry spells is more clearly described when broken down by rain class. Generally, there is an increase in the impact of a dry spell when it first rains as the spell duration and rainfall amount increase.

  18. Simulation of extreme rainfall and projection of future changes using the GLIMCLIM model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rashid, Md. Mamunur; Beecham, Simon; Chowdhury, Rezaul Kabir

    2016-08-01

    In this study, the performance of the Generalized LInear Modelling of daily CLImate sequence (GLIMCLIM) statistical downscaling model was assessed to simulate extreme rainfall indices and annual maximum daily rainfall (AMDR) when downscaled daily rainfall from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCM) (four GCMs and two scenarios) output datasets and then their changes were estimated for the future period 2041-2060. The model was able to reproduce the monthly variations in the extreme rainfall indices reasonably well when forced by the NCEP reanalysis datasets. Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping (FAQM) was used to remove bias in the simulated daily rainfall when forced by CMIP5 GCMs, which reduced the discrepancy between observed and simulated extreme rainfall indices. Although the observed AMDR were within the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of the simulated AMDR, the model consistently under-predicted the inter-annual variability of AMDR. A non-stationary model was developed using the generalized linear model for local, shape and scale to estimate the AMDR with an annual exceedance probability of 0.01. The study shows that in general, AMDR is likely to decrease in the future. The Onkaparinga catchment will also experience drier conditions due to an increase in consecutive dry days coinciding with decreases in heavy (>long term 90th percentile) rainfall days, empirical 90th quantile of rainfall and maximum 5-day consecutive total rainfall for the future period (2041-2060) compared to the base period (1961-2000).

  19. Statistical downscaling of CMIP5 outputs for projecting future changes in rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rashid, Md. Mamunur, E-mail: mdmamunur.rashid@mymail.unisa.edu.au [Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095 (Australia); Beecham, Simon, E-mail: simon.beecham@unisa.edu.au [Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095 (Australia); Chowdhury, Rezaul K., E-mail: rezaulkabir@uaeu.ac.ae [Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095 (Australia); Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, PO Box 15551 (United Arab Emirates)

    2015-10-15

    A generalized linear model was fitted to stochastically downscaled multi-site daily rainfall projections from CMIP5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia to assess future changes to hydrologically relevant metrics. For this purpose three GCMs, two multi-model ensembles (one by averaging the predictors of GCMs and the other by regressing the predictors of GCMs against reanalysis datasets) and two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were considered. The downscaling model was able to reasonably reproduce the observed historical rainfall statistics when the model was driven by NCEP reanalysis datasets. Significant bias was observed in the rainfall when downscaled from historical outputs of GCMs. Bias was corrected using the Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping technique. Future changes in rainfall were computed from the bias corrected downscaled rainfall forced by GCM outputs for the period 2041–2060 and these were then compared to the base period 1961–2000. The results show that annual and seasonal rainfalls are likely to significantly decrease for all models and scenarios in the future. The number of dry days and maximum consecutive dry days will increase whereas the number of wet days and maximum consecutive wet days will decrease. Future changes of daily rainfall occurrence sequences combined with a reduction in rainfall amounts will lead to a drier catchment, thereby reducing the runoff potential. Because this is a catchment that is a significant source of Adelaide's water supply, irrigation water and water for maintaining environmental flows, an effective climate change adaptation strategy is needed in order to face future potential water shortages. - Highlights: • A generalized linear model was used for multi-site daily rainfall downscaling. • Rainfall was downscaled from CMIP5 GCM outputs. • Two multi-model ensemble approaches were used. • Bias was corrected using the Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping

  20. The spatial return level of aggregated hourly extreme rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaffie, Mardhiyyah; Eli, Annazirin; Wan Zin, Wan Zawiah; Jemain, Abdul Aziz

    2015-07-01

    This paper is intended to ascertain the spatial pattern of extreme rainfall distribution in Peninsular Malaysia at several short time intervals, i.e., on hourly basis. Motivation of this research is due to historical records of extreme rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia, whereby many hydrological disasters at this region occur within a short time period. The hourly periods considered are 1, 2, 3, 6, 12, and 24 h. Many previous hydrological studies dealt with daily rainfall data; thus, this study enables comparison to be made on the estimated performances between daily and hourly rainfall data analyses so as to identify the impact of extreme rainfall at a shorter time scale. Return levels based on the time aggregate considered are also computed. Parameter estimation using L-moment method for four probability distributions, namely, the generalized extreme value (GEV), generalized logistic (GLO), generalized Pareto (GPA), and Pearson type III (PE3) distributions were conducted. Aided with the L-moment diagram test and mean square error (MSE) test, GLO was found to be the most appropriate distribution to represent the extreme rainfall data. At most time intervals (10, 50, and 100 years), the spatial patterns revealed that the rainfall distribution across the peninsula differ for 1- and 24-h extreme rainfalls. The outcomes of this study would provide additional information regarding patterns of extreme rainfall in Malaysia which may not be detected when considering only a higher time scale such as daily; thus, appropriate measures for shorter time scales of extreme rainfall can be planned. The implementation of such measures would be beneficial to the authorities to reduce the impact of any disastrous natural event.

  1. Evaluation of Satellite Rainfall Products over NASA's Iowa Flood Studies (IFloodS) Domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    ElSaadani, Mohamed; Quintero, Felipe; Krajewski, Witold F.; Goska, Radoslaw; Seo, Bongchul

    2014-05-01

    Iowa Flood Studies (IFloodS) is a NASA Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission to provide better understanding of the strengths and limitations of satellite products in the context of hydrologic applications. IFloodS took place in the central to north eastern part of Iowa in Midwestern United States during the months of April-June, 2013. Quantifying the physical characteristics, space/time variability and assessing satellite rainfall retrieval uncertainties at instantaneous to daily time scales are of the main objectives of IFloodS field experiment beside assessing hydrologic predictive skills as a function of space/time scales and discerning the relative roles of rainfall quantities in flood genesis. The errors of rainfall estimation of three satellite rainfall products (TRMM's TMPA 3B42 V7, CPC's CMORPH and CHRS at UCI's PERSIANN) have been characterized in space and time using NCEP Stage IV radar-rainfall product as a benchmark for comparison. The satellite rainfall products used in this study represent 3 hourly, quarter degree, rainfall accumulation. The benchmark rainfall accumulation has an hourly, four kilometers, resolutions in time and space respectively. We also investigate the adequacy of satellite rainfall products as inputs for hydrological modeling. To this end, these products were used as forcing for the Iowa Flood Center (IFC) hydrological model and produced discharge simulations in a high-resolution drainage network. The IFC hydrological model has been validated using radar rainfall product and thus, the hydrological outputs becomes the reference of comparison for the other rainfall products. We evaluated the hydrological performance of the rainfall products at different spatial scales, ranging from 2 to 14,000 square miles using stream discharge information from USGS gauges network. We discuss the adequacy of the rainfall products for flood forecasting at different spatial scales.

  2. Thorotrast and in vivo thorium dioxide: numerical simulation of 30 years of alpha radiation absorption by the tissues near a large compact source

    CERN Document Server

    Bianconi, Andrea

    2014-01-01

    Background: The epidemiology of the slightly radioactive contrast agent named Thorotrast presents a very long latency period between the injection and the development of the related pathologies. It is an example of the more general problem posed by a radioactive internal contaminant whose effects are not noteworthy in the short term but become dramatic in the long period. A point that is still to be explored is fluctuations (in space and time) in the localized absorption of radiation by the tissues. Methods: A Monte Carlo simulation code has been developed to study over a 30 year period the daily absorption of alpha radiation by micrometer sized portions of tissue placed at a distance of 0-100 micrometers from a model source, that approximates a compact thorium dioxide source in liver or spleen whose size is larger or equal to 20 micrometers. The biological depletion of the daughter nuclei of the thorium series is taken into account. The initial condition assumes chemically purified natural thorium. Results: ...

  3. Climate change in the next 30 years: What can a convection-permitting model tell us that we did not already know?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fosser, G.; Khodayar, S.; Berg, P.

    2016-06-01

    To investigate the climate change in the next 30 years over a complex terrain in southwestern Germany, simulations performed with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM at convection-permitting resolution are compared to simulations at 7 km resolution with parameterised convection. An earlier study has shown the main benefits of convection-permitting resolution in the hourly statistics and the diurnal cycle of precipitation intensities. Here, we investigate whether the improved simulation of precipitation in the convection-permitting model is affecting future climate projections in summer. Overall, the future scenario (ECHAM5 with A1B forcing) brings weak changes in mean precipitation, but stronger hourly intensities in the morning and less frequent but more intense daily precipitation. The two model simulations produce similar changes in climate, despite differences in their physical characteristics linked to the formation of convective precipitation. A significant increase in the morning precipitation probably due to large-scale forced convection is found when considering only the most extreme events (above 50 mm/day). In this case, even the diurnal cycles of precipitation and convection-related indices are similar between resolutions, leading to the conclusion that the 7 km model sufficiently resolves the most extreme convective events. In this region and time periods, the 7 km resolution is deemed sufficient for most assessments of near future precipitation change. However, conclusions could be dependent on the characteristics of the region of investigation.

  4. Climate change in the next 30 years: What can a convection-permitting model tell us that we did not already know?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fosser, G.; Khodayar, S.; Berg, P.

    2017-03-01

    To investigate the climate change in the next 30 years over a complex terrain in southwestern Germany, simulations performed with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM at convection-permitting resolution are compared to simulations at 7 km resolution with parameterised convection. An earlier study has shown the main benefits of convection-permitting resolution in the hourly statistics and the diurnal cycle of precipitation intensities. Here, we investigate whether the improved simulation of precipitation in the convection-permitting model is affecting future climate projections in summer. Overall, the future scenario (ECHAM5 with A1B forcing) brings weak changes in mean precipitation, but stronger hourly intensities in the morning and less frequent but more intense daily precipitation. The two model simulations produce similar changes in climate, despite differences in their physical characteristics linked to the formation of convective precipitation. A significant increase in the morning precipitation probably due to large-scale forced convection is found when considering only the most extreme events (above 50 mm/day). In this case, even the diurnal cycles of precipitation and convection-related indices are similar between resolutions, leading to the conclusion that the 7 km model sufficiently resolves the most extreme convective events. In this region and time periods, the 7 km resolution is deemed sufficient for most assessments of near future precipitation change. However, conclusions could be dependent on the characteristics of the region of investigation.

  5. Rainfall variation and child health: effect of rainfall on diarrhea among under 5 children in Rwanda, 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukabutera, Assumpta; Thomson, Dana; Murray, Megan; Basinga, Paulin; Nyirazinyoye, Laetitia; Atwood, Sidney; Savage, Kevin P; Ngirimana, Aimable; Hedt-Gauthier, Bethany L

    2016-08-05

    Diarrhea among children under 5 years of age has long been a major public health concern. Previous studies have suggested an association between rainfall and diarrhea. Here, we examined the association between Rwandan rainfall patterns and childhood diarrhea and the impact of household sanitation variables on this relationship. We derived a series of rain-related variables in Rwanda based on daily rainfall measurements and hydrological models built from daily precipitation measurements collected between 2009 and 2011. Using these data and the 2010 Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey database, we measured the association between total monthly rainfall, monthly rainfall intensity, runoff water and anomalous rainfall and the occurrence of diarrhea in children under 5 years of age. Among the 8601 children under 5 years of age included in the survey, 13.2 % reported having diarrhea within the 2 weeks prior to the survey. We found that higher levels of runoff were protective against diarrhea compared to low levels among children who lived in households with unimproved toilet facilities (OR = 0.54, 95 % CI: [0.34, 0.87] for moderate runoff and OR = 0.50, 95 % CI: [0.29, 0.86] for high runoff) but had no impact among children in household with improved toilets. Our finding that children in households with unimproved toilets were less likely to report diarrhea during periods of high runoff highlights the vulnerabilities of those living without adequate sanitation to the negative health impacts of environmental events.

  6. Erosivity of rainfall in Lages, Santa Catarina, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jefferson Schick

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The erosive capacity of rainfall can be expressed by an index and knowing it allows recommendation of soil management and conservation practices to reduce water erosion. The objective of this study was to calculate various indices of rainfall erosivity in Lages, Santa Catarina, Brazil, identify the best one, and discover its temporal distribution. The study was conducted at the Center of Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences, Lages, Santa Catarina, using daily rainfall charts from 1989 to 2012. Using the computer program Chuveros , 107 erosivity indices were obtained, which were based on maximum intensity in 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45, 50, 55, 60, 70, 80, 90, 100, 110, 120, 135, 150, 165, 180, 210, and 240 min of duration and on the combination of these intensities with the kinetic energy obtained by the equations of Brown & Foster, Wagner & Massambani, and Wischmeier & Smith. The indices of the time period from 1993 to 2012 were correlated with the respective soil losses from the standard plot of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE in order to select the erosivity index for the region. Erosive rainfall accounted for 83 % of the mean annual total volume of 1,533 mm. The erosivity index (R factor of rainfall recommended for Lages is the EI30, whose mean annual value is 5,033 MJ mm ha-1 h-1, and of this value, 66 % occurs from September to February. Mean annual erosivity has a return period estimated at two years with a 50 % probability of occurrence.

  7. Rainfall variability modelling in Rwanda

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nduwayezu, E.; Kanevski, M.; Jaboyedoff, M.

    2012-04-01

    Support to climate change adaptation is a priority in many International Organisations meetings. But is the international approach for adaptation appropriate with field reality in developing countries? In Rwanda, the main problems will be heavy rain and/or long dry season. Four rainfall seasons have been identified, corresponding to the four thermal Earth ones in the south hemisphere: the normal season (summer), the rainy season (autumn), the dry season (winter) and the normo-rainy season (spring). The spatial rainfall decreasing from West to East, especially in October (spring) and February (summer) suggests an «Atlantic monsoon influence» while the homogeneous spatial rainfall distribution suggests an «Inter-tropical front » mechanism. The torrential rainfall that occurs every year in Rwanda disturbs the circulation for many days, damages the houses and, more seriously, causes heavy losses of people. All districts are affected by bad weather (heavy rain) but the costs of such events are the highest in mountains districts. The objective of the current research is to proceed to an evaluation of the potential rainfall risk by applying advanced geospatial modelling tools in Rwanda: geostatistical predictions and simulations, machine learning algorithm (different types of neural networks) and GIS. The research will include rainfalls variability mapping and probabilistic analyses of extreme events.

  8. Familial cortical myoclonic tremor and epilepsy: Description of a new South African pedigree with 30 year follow up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Coller, Riaan; van Rootselaar, Anne-Fleur; Schutte, Clara; van der Meyden, C H

    2017-05-01

    The aims of this study were to report the index case of a South African family with cortical myoclonic tremor and epilepsy, to describe the pedigree with the clinical findings and results of additional investigations, and to report the unique follow-up evaluation of affected and unaffected family members after 30 years. The index case led to evaluation of the clinical files of patients from 1978/1979 and clinical assessment and investigation of patients from this cohort as well as newly identified family members. Patients were examined clinically; cortical myoclonic tremor severity was scored by using the Fahn-Tolosa- Marin-Tremor Rating Scale and the Myoclonus Rating Scale. Cortical origin of myoclonus was proven. Statistical analyses were done to assess the impact of cortical myoclonic tremor on quality of life. Clinical data was available for 23 patients. Increase in cortical myoclonic tremor and age showed a statistically significant correlation with worsening of the sub-score for Quality of Life (FTMTRS) and myoclonus rating scale. After 30 years eleven of fourteen patients could be followed up. Progression of cortical myoclonic tremor severity was noted but epilepsy control was adequate with all patients reporting less than two seizures per year. No clinical features of neurodegeneration were found. We describe the initial presentation and 30 year follow-up of a four generation South African family with FCMTE. The unique long term follow up of this pedigree supports previous findings that the condition does not cause additional progressive neurological deterioration and quality of life is mostly influenced by worsening of the cortical myoclonic tremor with age. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Tertiary resurfacing after one of the first free flaps in Europe, a reflection on 30 years of microsurgical progress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hart, A M; Tollan, C J; Dabernig, J; Acland, R; Taggart, I

    2007-01-01

    Free flaps have been used for over 30 years. During this period, improved anatomical understanding has increased donor options and available pedicle lengths, permitting safer, single-stage reconstructions with simpler anastomoses. Refinements, such as perforator flaps in particular, have greatly improved donor morbidity, recipient site cosmesis, and the ability to replace 'like with like' while retaining options for innervation. This case highlights the evolution from one of Europe's first free tissue transfers, effectively a perforator flap, through the advent of free muscle flaps to the current generation of contourable perforator flaps. Free flap transfer has become increasingly sophisticated, safer, and more predictable, yet the potential quality of reconstructive outcome has changed little.

  10. The decreasing importance of acidification episodes with recovery from acidification: an analysis of the 30-year record from Birkenes, Norway

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. F. Wright

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available The 30-year record 1975–2004 of weekly samples of streamwater chemistry from Birkenes, Norway, shows 106 acid episodes below the threshold of ANC –50 μeq l−1. The frequency, severity and duration of episodes have diminished since about 1990 due to chemical recovery following reduced deposition of sulphur. In particular SO4-driven episodes in the first runoff following drought have become less intense and less frequent, whereas episodes driven by climate (wind, high flow continue. The data show significant empirical relationships between strength of the driver, degree of chemical recovery, and severity of ANC depression.

  11. The decreasing importance of acidification episodes with recovery from acidification: an analysis of the 30-year record from Birkenes, Norway

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. F. Wright

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available The 30-year record 1975–2004 of weekly samples of streamwater chemistry from Birkenes, Norway, shows 106 acid episodes below the threshold of ANC−50 µeq l−1. The frequency, severity and duration of episodes have diminished since about 1990 due to chemical recovery following reduced deposition of sulphur. In particular SO4-driven episodes in the first runoff following drought have become less intense and less frequent, whereas episodes driven by climate (wind, high flow continue. The data show significant empirical relationships between strength of the driver, degree of chemical recovery, and severity of ANC depression.

  12. Debates to personal conclusion in peripheral nerve injury and reconstruction: A 30-year experience at Chang Gung Memorial Hospital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Chwei-Chin Chuang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Significant progress has been achieved in the science and management of peripheral nerve injuries over the past 40 years. Yet there are many questions and few answers. The author, with 30 years of experience in treating them at the Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, addresses debates on various issues with personal conclusions. These include: (1 Degree of peripheral nerve injury, (2 Timing of nerve repair, (3Technique of nerve repair, (4 Level of brachial plexus injury,(5 Level of radial nerve injury,(6 Traction avulsion amputation of major limb, (7 Proximal Vs distal nerve transfers in brachial plexus injuries and (8 Post paralysis facial synkinesis.

  13. Physical education curriculums in the educational institutions of Zakarpattia in the 20-30 years of the XX century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trifan A.

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The questions of history of introduction of the programs are analysed on a physical culture in educational establishments of Zakarpattia in 20-30 years of XX age. From 1924 on Zakarpattia the school programs on physical education were used only in incomplete middle schools and gymnasia. Basis of on-line tutorials and plans of that time was made by the elements of physical exercises, developed the Czech specialists. Directions of taking approach are rotined to school program development in modern education. A decision of the expounded problems in planning is necessary pre-condition of successful and effective educational process.

  14. 30 years after

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Unterrainer, Walter

    2016-01-01

    different housing sizes. A set of specified facade-elements provided individuality and adaptability. The smaller houses could 'grow' over time, reusing these elements in a new assemblage - an early life cycle approach. 'Ecological buildings' of the 80's had a stronger focus on 'natural' materials...

  15. Quantifying uncertainty in observational rainfall datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lennard, Chris; Dosio, Alessandro; Nikulin, Grigory; Pinto, Izidine; Seid, Hussen

    2015-04-01

    rainfall datasets available over Africa on monthly, daily and sub-daily time scales as appropriate to quantify spatial and temporal differences between the datasets. We find regional wet and dry biases between datasets (using the ensemble mean as a reference) with generally larger biases in reanalysis products. Rainfall intensity is poorly represented in some datasets which demonstrates some datasets should not be used for rainfall intensity analyses. Using 10 CORDEX models we show in east Africa that the spread between observed datasets is often similar to the spread between models. We recommend that specific observational rainfall datasets datasets be used for specific investigations and also that where many datasets are applicable to an investigation, a probabilistic view be adopted for rainfall studies over Africa. Endris, H. S., P. Omondi, S. Jain, C. Lennard, B. Hewitson, L. Chang'a, J. L. Awange, A. Dosio, P. Ketiem, G. Nikulin, H-J. Panitz, M. Büchner, F. Stordal, and L. Tazalika (2013) Assessment of the Performance of CORDEX Regional Climate Models in Simulating East African Rainfall. J. Climate, 26, 8453-8475. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00708.1 Gbobaniyi, E., A. Sarr, M. B. Sylla, I. Diallo, C. Lennard, A. Dosio, A. Dhie ?diou, A. Kamga, N. A. B. Klutse, B. Hewitson, and B. Lamptey (2013) Climatology, annual cycle and interannual variability of precipitation and temperature in CORDEX simulations over West Africa. Int. J. Climatol., DOI: 10.1002/joc.3834 Hernández-Díaz, L., R. Laprise, L. Sushama, A. Martynov, K. Winger, and B. Dugas (2013) Climate simulation over CORDEX Africa domain using the fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5). Clim. Dyn. 40, 1415-1433. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1387-z Kalognomou, E., C. Lennard, M. Shongwe, I. Pinto, A. Favre, M. Kent, B. Hewitson, A. Dosio, G. Nikulin, H. Panitz, and M. Büchner (2013) A diagnostic evaluation of precipitation in CORDEX models over southern Africa. Journal of Climate, 26, 9477-9506. DOI:10

  16. Simulating the daily discharge of the Mandovi River, west coast of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Suprit, K.; Shankar, D.; Venugopal, V.; Bhatkar, N.V.

    A hydrological modelling framework was assembled to simulate the daily discharge of the Mandovi River on the Indian west coast. Approximately 90% of the west-coast rainfall, and therefore discharge, occurs during the summer monsoon (June...

  17. Analyzing the Implications of Climate Data on the Rainfall Frequency Spectrum: Case Study of Knoxville, Tennessee and Surrounding Region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sylvester, Linda M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Omitaomu, Olufemi A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Parish, Esther S. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2016-09-01

    Modeled daily precipitation values are used to determine changes in percentile rainfall event depths, for planning and mitigation of stormwater runoff, over past (1980-2005) and future (2025-2050) periods for Knoxville, Tennessee and the surrounding area.

  18. East Australian rainfall events: Interannual variations, trends, and relationships with the Southern Oscillation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nicholls, N.; Kariko, A. (Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne (Australia))

    1993-06-01

    The number, average length, and average intensity of rain events at five stations located in eastern Australia have been calculated for each year from 1910 to 1988, using daily rainfall totals. A rain event has been defined as a period of consecutive days on which rainfall has been recorded on each day. Inter-relationships between the rain-event variables (at each station and between stations), along with their relationships with annual rainfall and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, have been investigated. Trends in the time series of the rain-event variables have also been examined. Annual rainfall variations are found to be primarily caused by variations in intensity. Fluctuations in the three rain-event variables are essentially independent of each other. This is due, in some cases, to inter-relationships at interdecadal time scales offsetting relationships of the opposite sense at shorter time scales. The large-scale geographical nature of east Australian rainfall fluctuations mainly reflects interstation correlations in the number of events. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation affects rainfall mainly by influencing the number and intensity of rain events. Twentieth century increases in east Australian rainfall have been due, primarily, to increased numbers of events. Intensity of rain events has generally declined, offsetting some of the increase in rainfall expected from more frequent events. Information about historical trends in australian rain events might provide a basis for determining if rainfall change were due to an enhanced greenhouse effect. 31 refs., 13 figs.

  19. Potential of deterministic and geostatistical rainfall interpolation under high rainfall variability and dry spells: case of Kenya's Central Highlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kisaka, M. Oscar; Mucheru-Muna, M.; Ngetich, F. K.; Mugwe, J.; Mugendi, D.; Mairura, F.; Shisanya, C.; Makokha, G. L.

    2016-04-01

    Drier parts of Kenya's Central Highlands endure persistent crop failure and declining agricultural productivity. These have, in part, attributed to high temperatures, prolonged dry spells and erratic rainfall. Understanding spatial-temporal variability of climatic indices such as rainfall at seasonal level is critical for optimal rain-fed agricultural productivity and natural resource management in the study area. However, the predominant setbacks in analysing hydro-meteorological events are occasioned by either lack, inadequate, or inconsistent meteorological data. Like in most other places, the sole sources of climatic data in the study region are scarce and only limited to single stations, yet with persistent missing/unrecorded data making their utilization a challenge. This study examined seasonal anomalies and variability in rainfall, drought occurrence and the efficacy of interpolation techniques in the drier regions of eastern Kenyan. Rainfall data from five stations (Machang'a, Kiritiri, Kiambere and Kindaruma and Embu) were sourced from both the Kenya Meteorology Department and on-site primary recording. Owing to some experimental work ongoing, automated recording for primary dailies in Machang'a have been ongoing since the year 2000 to date; thus, Machang'a was treated as reference (for period of record) station for selection of other stations in the region. The other stations had data sets of over 15 years with missing data of less than 10 % as required by the world meteorological organization whose quality check is subject to the Centre for Climate Systems Modeling (C2SM) through MeteoSwiss and EMPA bodies. The dailies were also subjected to homogeneity testing to evaluate whether they came from the same population. Rainfall anomaly index, coefficients of variance and probability were utilized in the analyses of rainfall variability. Spline, kriging and inverse distance weighting interpolation techniques were assessed using daily rainfall data and

  20. Changes in greening in the high Arctic: insights from a 30 year AVHRR max NDVI dataset for Svalbard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vickers, Hannah; Arild Høgda, Kjell; Solbø, Stian; Rune Karlsen, Stein; Tømmervik, Hans; Aanes, Ronny; Hansen, Brage B.

    2016-10-01

    Satellite-aided studies of vegetation cover, biomass and productivity are becoming increasingly important for monitoring the effects of a changing climate on the biosphere. With their large spatial coverage and good temporal resolution, space-borne instruments are ideal to observe remote areas over extended time periods. However, long time series datasets with global coverage have in many cases too low spatial resolution for sparsely vegetated high latitude areas. This study has made use of a newly developed 30 year 1 km spatial resolution dataset from 1986 to 2015, provided by the NOAA AVHRR series of satellites, in order to calculate the annual maximum NDVI over parts of Svalbard (78°N). This parameter is indicative of vegetation productivity and has therefore enabled us to study long-term changes in greening within the Inner Fjord Zone on Svalbard. In addition, local meteorological data are available to link maximum NDVI values to the temporal behavior of the mean growing season (summer) temperature for the study area. Over the 30 year period, we find positive trends in both maximum NDVI (average increase of 29%) and mean summer temperature (59%), which were significantly positively correlated with each other. This suggests a temporal greening trend mediated by summer warming. However, as also recently reported for lower latitudes, the strength of the year-to-year correlation between maximum NDVI and mean summer temperature decreased, suggesting that the response of vegetation to summer warming has not remained the same over the entire study period.

  1. Research on the Fine-Scale Spatial Uniformity of Natural Rainfall and Rainfall from a Rainfall Simulator with a Rotary Platform (RSRP)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bo Liu; Xiaolei Wang; Lihua Shi; Xichuan Liu; Zhaojing Kang; Zhentao Chen

    2017-01-01

    ... and the rainfall uniformity was evaluated using the Christiansen Uniformity Coefficient (CU). Simultaneously, factors influencing the spatial uniformity of natural rainfall, including the average rainfall accumulation (RA...

  2. Cascade-based disaggregation of continuous rainfall time series: the influence of climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Güntner

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall data of high temporal resolution are required in a multitude of hydrological applications. In the present paper, a temporal rainfall disaggregation model is applied to convert daily time series into an hourly resolution. The model is based on the principles of random multiplicative cascade processes. Its parameters are dependent on (1 the volume and (2 the position in the rainfall sequence of the time interval with rainfall to be disaggregated. The aim is to compare parameters and performance of the model between two contrasting climates with different rainfall generating mechanisms, a semi-arid tropical (Brazil and a temperate (United Kingdom climate. In the range of time scales studied, the scale-invariant assumptions of the model are approximately equally well fulfilled for both climates. The model parameters differ distinctly between climates, reflecting the dominance of convective processes in the Brazilian rainfall and of advective processes associated with frontal passages in the British rainfall. In the British case, the parameters exhibit a slight seasonal variation consistent with the higher frequency of convection during summer. When applied for disaggregation, the model reproduces a range of hourly rainfall characteristics with a high accuracy in both climates. However, the overall model performance is somewhat better for the semi-arid tropical rainfall. In particular, extreme rainfall in the UK is overestimated whereas extreme rainfall in Brazil is well reproduced. Transferability of parameters in time is associated with larger uncertainty in the semi-arid climate due to its higher interannual variability and lower percentage of rainy intervals. For parameter transferability in space, no restrictions are found between the Brazilian stations whereas in the UK regional differences are more pronounced. The overall high accuracy of disaggregated data supports the potential usefulness of the model in hydrological applications

  3. Rainfall Characteristics and Regionalization in Peninsular Malaysia Based on a High Resolution Gridded Data Set

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chee Loong Wong

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Daily gridded rainfall data over Peninsular Malaysia are delineated using an objective clustering algorithm, with the objective of classifying rainfall grids into groups of homogeneous regions based on the similarity of the rainfall annual cycles. It has been demonstrated that Peninsular Malaysia can be statistically delineated into eight distinct rainfall regions. This delineation is closely associated with the topographic and geographic characteristics. The variation of rainfall over the Peninsula is generally characterized by bimodal variations with two peaks, i.e., a primary peak occurring during the autumn transitional period and a secondary peak during the spring transitional period. The east coast zones, however, showed a single peak during the northeast monsoon (NEM. The influence of NEM is stronger compared to the southwest monsoon (SWM. Significantly increasing rainfall trends at 95% confidence level are not observed in all regions during the NEM, with exception of northwest zone (R1 and coastal band of west coast interior region (R3. During SWM, most areas have become drier over the last three decades. The study identifies higher variation of mean monthly rainfall over the east coast regions, but spatially, the rainfall is uniformly distributed. For the southwestern coast and west coast regions, a larger range of coefficients of variation is mostly obtained during the NEM, and to a smaller extent during the SWM. The inland region received least rainfall in February, but showed the largest spatial variation. The relationship between rainfall and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO was examined based on the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI. Although the concurrent relationships between rainfall in the different regions and ENSO are generally weak with negative correlations, the rainfall shows stronger positive correlation with preceding ENSO signals with a time lag of four to eight months.

  4. The Effect of Rainfall Measurement Technique and Its Spatiotemporal Resolution on Discharge Predictions in the Netherlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uijlenhoet, R.; Brauer, C.; Overeem, A.; Sassi, M.; Rios Gaona, M. F.

    2014-12-01

    Several rainfall measurement techniques are available for hydrological applications, each with its own spatial and temporal resolution. We investigated the effect of these spatiotemporal resolutions on discharge simulations in lowland catchments by forcing a novel rainfall-runoff model (WALRUS) with rainfall data from gauges, radars and microwave links. The hydrological model used for this analysis is the recently developed Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS). WALRUS is a rainfall-runoff model accounting for hydrological processes relevant to areas with shallow groundwater (e.g. groundwater-surface water feedback). Here, we used WALRUS for case studies in a freely draining lowland catchment and a polder with controlled water levels. We used rain gauge networks with automatic (hourly resolution but low spatial density) and manual gauges (high spatial density but daily resolution). Operational (real-time) and climatological (gauge-adjusted) C-band radar products and country-wide rainfall maps derived from microwave link data from a cellular telecommunication network were also used. Discharges simulated with these different inputs were compared to observations. We also investigated the effect of spatiotemporal resolution with a high-resolution X-band radar data set for catchments with different sizes. Uncertainty in rainfall forcing is a major source of uncertainty in discharge predictions, both with lumped and with distributed models. For lumped rainfall-runoff models, the main source of input uncertainty is associated with the way in which (effective) catchment-average rainfall is estimated. When catchments are divided into sub-catchments, rainfall spatial variability can become more important, especially during convective rainfall events, leading to spatially varying catchment wetness and spatially varying contribution of quick flow routes. Improving rainfall measurements and their spatiotemporal resolution can improve the performance of rainfall

  5. Links between circulation and changes in the characteristics of Iberian rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodess, C. M.; Jones, P. D.

    2002-11-01

    Investigation of the links between atmospheric circulation patterns and rainfall is important for the understanding of climatic variability and for the development of empirical circulation-based downscaling methods. Here, spatial and temporal variations in circulation-rainfall relationships over the Iberian Peninsula during the period 1958-97 are explored using an automated circulation classification scheme and daily rainfall totals for 18 stations. Links between the circulation classification scheme and the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) are also considered, as are the direct links between rainfall and the NAO. Trends in rainfall and circulation-type frequency are explored. A general tendency towards decreasing mean seasonal rainfall over the peninsula, with the exception of the southeastern Mediterranean coast, hides larger changes in wet day amount and rainfall probability. There is a tendency towards more, less-intensive rain days across much of Iberia, with a tendency towards more, more-intensive rain days along the southeastern Mediterranean coast, both of which are reflected in changes in rainfall amount quantiles. A preliminary analysis indicates that these changes may have occurred systematically across all circulation types. Comparison of the trends in rainfall and in circulation-type frequency suggests possible links. These links are supported by linear regression analyses using circulation-type frequencies as predictor variables and rainfall totals for winter months as the predictands. The selected predictor variables reflect the main circulation features influencing winter rainfall across the peninsula, i.e. the strong influence of Atlantic westerly and southwesterly airmasses over much of the peninsula, of northerly and northwesterly surface flow over northern/northwestern Spain and northern Portugal and the stronger effect of Mediterranean rather than Atlantic influences in southeastern Spain. The observed rainfall changes cannot, however, be

  6. Long term country-wide rainfall monitoring employing cellular communication networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overeem, Aart; Leijnse, Hidde; Uijlenhoet, Remko

    2013-04-01

    Accurate rainfall observations with high spatial and temporal resolutions are needed for hydrological applications, agriculture, meteorology, and climate monitoring. However, the majority of the land surface of the earth lacks accurate rainfall information and the number of rain gauges is even severely declining in Europe, South-America, and Africa. This calls for alternative sources of rainfall information. Various studies have shown that microwave links from operational cellular telecommunication networks may be employed for rainfall monitoring. Such networks cover 20% of the land surface of the earth and have a high density, especially in urban areas. The basic principle of rainfall monitoring using microwave links is as follows. Rainfall attenuates the electromagnetic signals transmitted from one telephone tower to another. By measuring the received power at one end of a microwave link as a function of time, the path-integrated attenuation due to rainfall can be calculated. Previous studies have shown that average rainfall intensities over the length of a link can be derived from the path-integrated attenuation. This is particularly interesting for those countries where few surface rainfall observations are available. Here we present preliminary results of long term country-wide rainfall monitoring employing cellular communication networks. A dataset from a commercial microwave link network over the Netherlands is analyzed, containing data from an unprecedented number of links (~ 2000) covering the land surface of the Netherlands (35500 square kilometres). This dataset spans from January 2011 through October 2012. Daily rainfall maps (1 km spatial resolution) are derived from the microwave link data and compared to maps from a gauge-adjusted radar dataset. The performance of the rainfall retrieval algorithm will be investigated, particularly a possible seasonal dependence.

  7. ESTIMATION AND MAPPING OF EXTREME RAINFALL IN THE CATCHMENT AREA OF BATNA (ALGERIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guellouh SAMI

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Statistical estimation of rainfall associated with extreme events is of major interest for hydrologists in terms of risk prevention. Comprehending the spatial distribution of extreme rainfalls that cover the entire catchment area, the impluvium, of Batna, requires as a first step a frequency analysis of annual maximum daily rainfall time series with the application of empirical distributions, namely the GEV distribution, the Gumbel distribution and the log-normal distribution. This has allowed us to estimate the quantiles of extreme rainfall with return periods of 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years for ten rainfall stations. Subsequently, this has allowed us to map the quantiles matching the centennial return period using three types of interpolations.

  8. Rain Check Application: Mobile tool to monitor rainfall in remote parts of Haiti

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, X.; Baird, J.; Chiu, M. T.; Morelli, R.; de Lanerolle, T. R.; Gourley, J. R.

    2011-12-01

    Rainfall observations performed uniformly and continuously over a period of time are valuable inputs in developing climate models and predicting events such as floods and droughts. Rain-Check is a mobile application developed in Google App Inventor Platform, for android based smart phones, to allow field researchers to monitor various rain gauges distributed though out remote regions of Haiti and send daily readings via SMS messages for further analysis and long term trending. Rainfall rate and quantity interact with many other factors to influence erosion, vegetative cover, groundwater recharge, stream water chemistry and runoff into streams impacting agriculture and livestock. Rainfall observation from various sites is especially significant in Haiti with over 80% of the country is mountainous terrain. Data sets from global models and limited number of ground stations do not capture the fine-scale rainfall patterns necessary to describe local climate. Placement and reading of rain gauges are critical to accurate measurement of rainfall.

  9. Regime shifts in annual maximum rainfall across Australia - implications for intensity-frequency-duration (IFD) relationships

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdon-Kidd, D. C.; Kiem, A. S.

    2015-12-01

    Rainfall intensity-frequency-duration (IFD) relationships are commonly required for the design and planning of water supply and management systems around the world. Currently, IFD information is based on the "stationary climate assumption" that weather at any point in time will vary randomly and that the underlying climate statistics (including both averages and extremes) will remain constant irrespective of the period of record. However, the validity of this assumption has been questioned over the last 15 years, particularly in Australia, following an improved understanding of the significant impact of climate variability and change occurring on interannual to multidecadal timescales. This paper provides evidence of regime shifts in annual maximum rainfall time series (between 1913-2010) using 96 daily rainfall stations and 66 sub-daily rainfall stations across Australia. Furthermore, the effect of these regime shifts on the resulting IFD estimates are explored for three long-term (1913-2010) sub-daily rainfall records (Brisbane, Sydney, and Melbourne) utilizing insights into multidecadal climate variability. It is demonstrated that IFD relationships may under- or over-estimate the design rainfall depending on the length and time period spanned by the rainfall data used to develop the IFD information. It is recommended that regime shifts in annual maximum rainfall be explicitly considered and appropriately treated in the ongoing revisions of the Engineers Australia guide to estimating and utilizing IFD information, Australian Rainfall and Runoff (ARR), and that clear guidance needs to be provided on how to deal with the issue of regime shifts in extreme events (irrespective of whether this is due to natural or anthropogenic climate change). The findings of our study also have important implications for other regions of the world that exhibit considerable hydroclimatic variability and where IFD information is based on relatively short data sets.

  10. Rainfall Variability across the Agneby Watershed at the Agboville Outlet in Côte d’Ivoire, West Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akissi Bienve Pélagie Kouakou

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes, at local and regional scales, the rainfall variability across the Agneby watershed at the Agboville outlet over the period 1950–2013. Daily rainfall data from 14 rain gauges are used. The methods used are based, firstly, on the rainfall index which aims to characterize the inter-annual and decadal variability of rainfall and, secondly, on the moving average to determine the dynamics of the mean seasonal cycle of the precipitations. Furthermore, the Pettitt test and the Hubert segmentation are applied to detect change-point in the rainfall series. At the basin scale, analysis of rainfall signals composites has shown that the rainfall deficit was more pronounced after the leap of monsoon. Dry years were characterized by an early monsoon demise which is remarkable after 1968. Moreover, the years after 1969 presented a shift of the peaks in precipitation for about 12 days. These peaks were reached early. The rainfall signal showed that the rainfall deficit for the period after 1968, relatively to the period before, was 10% in June against 36% in October for the average rainfall in the Agneby basin. At the local scale, the deficit of the peaks depends on the location. These rainfall deficits were 23% against 36.3% in June for the Agboville and Bongouanou rain gauges, respectively.

  11. Rainfall is a risk factor for sporadic cases of Legionella pneumophila pneumonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Vidal, Carolina; Labori, Maria; Viasus, Diego; Simonetti, Antonella; Garcia-Somoza, Dolors; Dorca, Jordi; Gudiol, Francesc; Carratalà, Jordi

    2013-01-01

    It is not known whether rainfall increases the risk of sporadic cases of Legionella pneumonia. We sought to test this hypothesis in a prospective observational cohort study of non-immunosuppressed adults hospitalized for community-acquired pneumonia (1995-2011). Cases with Legionella pneumonia were compared with those with non-Legionella pneumonia. Using daily rainfall data obtained from the regional meteorological service we examined patterns of rainfall over the days prior to admission in each study group. Of 4168 patients, 231 (5.5%) had Legionella pneumonia. The diagnosis was based on one or more of the following: sputum (41 cases), antigenuria (206) and serology (98). Daily rainfall average was 0.556 liters/m(2) in the Legionella pneumonia group vs. 0.328 liters/m(2) for non-Legionella pneumonia cases (p = 0.04). A ROC curve was plotted to compare the incidence of Legionella pneumonia and the weighted median rainfall. The cut-off point was 0.42 (AUC 0.54). Patients who were admitted to hospital with a prior weighted median rainfall higher than 0.42 were more likely to have Legionella pneumonia (OR 1.35; 95% CI 1.02-1.78; p = .03). Spearman Rho correlations revealed a relationship between Legionella pneumonia and rainfall average during each two-week reporting period (0.14; p = 0.003). No relationship was found between rainfall average and non-Legionella pneumonia cases (-0.06; p = 0.24). As a conclusion, rainfall is a significant risk factor for sporadic Legionella pneumonia. Physicians should carefully consider Legionella pneumonia when selecting diagnostic tests and antimicrobial therapy for patients presenting with CAP after periods of rainfall.

  12. Rainfall is a risk factor for sporadic cases of Legionella pneumophila pneumonia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolina Garcia-Vidal

    Full Text Available It is not known whether rainfall increases the risk of sporadic cases of Legionella pneumonia. We sought to test this hypothesis in a prospective observational cohort study of non-immunosuppressed adults hospitalized for community-acquired pneumonia (1995-2011. Cases with Legionella pneumonia were compared with those with non-Legionella pneumonia. Using daily rainfall data obtained from the regional meteorological service we examined patterns of rainfall over the days prior to admission in each study group. Of 4168 patients, 231 (5.5% had Legionella pneumonia. The diagnosis was based on one or more of the following: sputum (41 cases, antigenuria (206 and serology (98. Daily rainfall average was 0.556 liters/m(2 in the Legionella pneumonia group vs. 0.328 liters/m(2 for non-Legionella pneumonia cases (p = 0.04. A ROC curve was plotted to compare the incidence of Legionella pneumonia and the weighted median rainfall. The cut-off point was 0.42 (AUC 0.54. Patients who were admitted to hospital with a prior weighted median rainfall higher than 0.42 were more likely to have Legionella pneumonia (OR 1.35; 95% CI 1.02-1.78; p = .03. Spearman Rho correlations revealed a relationship between Legionella pneumonia and rainfall average during each two-week reporting period (0.14; p = 0.003. No relationship was found between rainfall average and non-Legionella pneumonia cases (-0.06; p = 0.24. As a conclusion, rainfall is a significant risk factor for sporadic Legionella pneumonia. Physicians should carefully consider Legionella pneumonia when selecting diagnostic tests and antimicrobial therapy for patients presenting with CAP after periods of rainfall.

  13. Regionalized rainfall-runoff model to estimate low flow indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Florine; Folton, Nathalie; Oudin, Ludovic

    2016-04-01

    Estimating low flow indices is of paramount importance to manage water resources and risk assessments. These indices are derived from river discharges which are measured at gauged stations. However, the lack of observations at ungauged sites bring the necessity of developing methods to estimate these low flow indices from observed discharges in neighboring catchments and from catchment characteristics. Different estimation methods exist. Regression or geostatistical methods performed on the low flow indices are the most common types of methods. Another less common method consists in regionalizing rainfall-runoff model parameters, from catchment characteristics or by spatial proximity, to estimate low flow indices from simulated hydrographs. Irstea developed GR2M-LoiEau, a conceptual monthly rainfall-runoff model, combined with a regionalized model of snow storage and melt. GR2M-LoiEau relies on only two parameters, which are regionalized and mapped throughout France. This model allows to cartography monthly reference low flow indices. The inputs data come from SAFRAN, the distributed mesoscale atmospheric analysis system, which provides daily solid and liquid precipitation and temperature data from everywhere in the French territory. To exploit fully these data and to estimate daily low flow indices, a new version of GR-LoiEau has been developed at a daily time step. The aim of this work is to develop and regionalize a GR-LoiEau model that can provide any daily, monthly or annual estimations of low flow indices, yet keeping only a few parameters, which is a major advantage to regionalize them. This work includes two parts. On the one hand, a daily conceptual rainfall-runoff model is developed with only three parameters in order to simulate daily and monthly low flow indices, mean annual runoff and seasonality. On the other hand, different regionalization methods, based on spatial proximity and similarity, are tested to estimate the model parameters and to simulate

  14. Assessing the relative effectiveness of statistical downscaling and distribution mapping in reproducing rainfall statistics based on climate model results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langousis, Andreas; Mamalakis, Antonios; Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino

    2016-01-01

    To improve the level skill of climate models (CMs) in reproducing the statistics of daily rainfall at a basin level, two types of statistical approaches have been suggested. One is statistical correction of CM rainfall outputs based on historical series of precipitation. The other, usually referred to as statistical rainfall downscaling, is the use of stochastic models to conditionally simulate rainfall series, based on large-scale atmospheric forcing from CMs. While promising, the latter approach attracted reduced attention in recent years, since the developed downscaling schemes involved complex weather identification procedures, while demonstrating limited success in reproducing several statistical features of rainfall. In a recent effort, Langousis and Kaleris () developed a statistical framework for simulation of daily rainfall intensities conditional on upper-air variables, which is simpler to implement and more accurately reproduces several statistical properties of actual rainfall records. Here we study the relative performance of: (a) direct statistical correction of CM rainfall outputs using nonparametric distribution mapping, and (b) the statistical downscaling scheme of Langousis and Kaleris (), in reproducing the historical rainfall statistics, including rainfall extremes, at a regional level. This is done for an intermediate-sized catchment in Italy, i.e., the Flumendosa catchment, using rainfall and atmospheric data from four CMs of the ENSEMBLES project. The obtained results are promising, since the proposed downscaling scheme is more accurate and robust in reproducing a number of historical rainfall statistics, independent of the CM used and the characteristics of the calibration period. This is particularly the case for yearly rainfall maxima.

  15. Daily Weather Records

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These daily weather records were compiled from a subset of stations in the Global Historical Climatological Network (GHCN)-Daily dataset. A weather record is...

  16. Biodiversity conservation in Swedish forests: ways forward for a 30-year-old multi-scaled approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gustafsson, Lena; Perhans, Karin

    2010-12-01

    A multi-scaled model for biodiversity conservation in forests was introduced in Sweden 30 years ago, which makes it a pioneer example of an integrated ecosystem approach. Trees are set aside for biodiversity purposes at multiple scale levels varying from individual trees to areas of thousands of hectares, with landowner responsibility at the lowest level and with increasing state involvement at higher levels. Ecological theory supports the multi-scaled approach, and retention efforts at every harvest occasion stimulate landowners' interest in conservation. We argue that the model has large advantages but that in a future with intensified forestry and global warming, development based on more progressive thinking is necessary to maintain and increase biodiversity. Suggestions for the future include joint planning for several forest owners, consideration of cost-effectiveness, accepting opportunistic work models, adjusting retention levels to stand and landscape composition, introduction of temporary reserves, creation of "receiver habitats" for species escaping climate change, and protection of young forests.

  17. Ciguatera incidence in the US Virgin Islands has not increased over a 30-year time period despite rising seawater temperatures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radke, Elizabeth G; Grattan, Lynn M; Cook, Robert L; Smith, Tyler B; Anderson, Donald M; Morris, J Glenn

    2013-05-01

    Ciguatera fish poisoning is the most common marine food poisoning worldwide. It has been hypothesized that increasing seawater temperature will result in increasing ciguatera incidence. In St. Thomas, US Virgin Islands, we performed an island-wide telephone survey (N = 807) and a medical record review of diagnosed ciguatera cases at the emergency department of the sole hospital and compared these data with comparable data sources collected in 1980. Annual incidence from both recent data sources remained high (12 per 1,000 among adults in the telephone survey). However, the combined data sources suggest that incidence has declined by 20% or more or remained stable over 30 years, whereas seawater temperatures were increasing. Illness was associated with lower education levels, higher levels of fish consumption, and having previous episodes of ciguatera; population shifts from 1980 to 2010 in these factors could explain an incidence decline of approximately 3 per 1,000, obscuring effects from rising seawater temperature.

  18. Mucinous carcinoma of breast in a 30-year-old female: A rare case report and discussion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Banyameen Mohamad Iqbal

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Mucinous carcinoma (MC (colloid carcinoma is a particular, rare type of breast carcinoma. It is characterized by the presence of extracellular mucin. MC of the breast generally presents as a lobulated, moderately well-circumscribed mass on mammography, sonography, and magnetic resonance imaging. It has a favorable prognosis due to the low incidence of axillary lymph node metastasis and poor adherence to bottom fascia and poor infiltration of overlying skin. It has high incidence of estrogen receptor and progesterone receptor positivity. The incidence of MC in females under 35 years of age is only 1%. Here, we report a case of MC of right breast in a 30-year-old female.

  19. Unilateral Optic Neuritis: A Rare Complication after Measles-Mumps-Rubella Vaccination in a 30-Year-Old Woman

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiara De Giacinto

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. To report a case of unilateral optic neuritis following Measles-Mumps-Rubella (MMR vaccination. Methods. A 30-year-old female developed unilateral optic neuritis five days after a Measles-Mumps-Rubella (MMR booster vaccination. The patient displayed unilateral involvement, with severe visual loss. However, visual acuity improved significantly after four days of intravenous steroid therapy with 500 mg/day of methylprednisolone. Conclusions. Optic neuritis is one of the rare complications associated with the mumps, measles, and rubella vaccine. It may be a toxic reaction to the nonviral component of the vaccine, but the exact etiology is unknown. Postvaccination neuritis is generally bilateral and usually affects children. In adults, unilateral optic neuritis is usually correlated with multiple sclerosis (MS.

  20. [Antiretroviral therapy in HIV-infected children and adolescents: lessons learned in 30 years of the epidemic].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bazin, Gabriela Ricordi; Gaspar, Mariza Curto Saavedra; Silva, Nicole Carvalho Xavier Micheloni da; Mendes, Carolina da Costa; Oliveira, Cora Pichler de; Bastos, Leonardo Soares; Cardoso, Claudete Aparecida Araújo

    2014-04-01

    This study aims to evaluate antiretroviral therapy in children and adolescents with AIDS. We selected 247 abstracts published from 1983 to 2013, collected from the PubMed and LILACS databases. Sixty-nine articles were selected. Attention to research in the pediatric age bracket in 30 years of the epidemic is explained by the age group's immunological characteristics, since AIDS progresses faster in children than in adults. Recent studies focus on the initiation of highly active antiretroviral therapy before the onset of symptoms. Early introduction of combination antiretroviral therapy has been implemented effectively and safely in populations with limited resources, leading to significantly improved survival. The current challenge is to manage a chronic disease with acute complications. New studies should focus on population specificities and identify the individual needs of pediatric patients.

  1. Effect size and power in assessing moderating effects of categorical variables using multiple regression: a 30-year review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguinis, Herman; Beaty, James C; Boik, Robert J; Pierce, Charles A

    2005-01-01

    The authors conducted a 30-year review (1969-1998) of the size of moderating effects of categorical variables as assessed using multiple regression. The median observed effect size (f(2)) is only .002, but 72% of the moderator tests reviewed had power of .80 or greater to detect a targeted effect conventionally defined as small. Results suggest the need to minimize the influence of artifacts that produce a downward bias in the observed effect size and put into question the use of conventional definitions of moderating effect sizes. As long as an effect has a meaningful impact, the authors advise researchers to conduct a power analysis and plan future research designs on the basis of smaller and more realistic targeted effect sizes.

  2. Air quality in the megacity of São Paulo: Evolution over the last 30 years and future perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrade, Maria de Fatima; Kumar, Prashant; de Freitas, Edmilson Dias; Ynoue, Rita Yuri; Martins, Jorge; Martins, Leila D.; Nogueira, Thiago; Perez-Martinez, Pedro; de Miranda, Regina Maura; Albuquerque, Taciana; Gonçalves, Fabio Luiz Teixeira; Oyama, Beatriz; Zhang, Yang

    2017-06-01

    We present a comprehensive review of published results from the last 30 years regarding the sources and atmospheric characteristics of particles and ozone in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP). During the last 30 years, many efforts have been made to describe the emissions sources and to analyse the primary and secondary formation of pollutants under a process of increasing urbanisation in the metropolitan area. From the occurrence of frequent violations of air quality standards in the 1970s and 1980s (due to the uncontrolled air pollution sources) to a substantial decrease in the concentrations of the primary pollutants, many regulations have been imposed and enforced, although those concentrations do not yet conform to the World Health Organization guidelines. The greatest challenge currently faced by the São Paulo State Environmental Protection Agency and the local community is controlling secondary pollutants such as ozone and fine particles. Understanding the formation of these secondary pollutants, by experimental or modelling approaches, requires the description of the atmospheric chemical processes driven by biofuel, ethanol and biodiesel emissions. Exposure to air pollution is the cause of many injuries to human health, according to many studies performed not only in the region but also worldwide, and affects susceptible populations such as children and the elderly. The MASP is the biggest megacity in the Southern Hemisphere, and its specifics are important for other urban areas that are facing the challenge of intensive growth that puts pressure on natural resources and worsens the living conditions in urban areas. This text discusses how imposing regulations on air quality and emission sources, mainly related to the transportation sector, has affected the evolution of pollutant concentrations in the MASP.

  3. Chapman Conference on Rainfall Fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, V. K.

    The Chapman Conference on Rainfall Fields, sponsored by AGU, was the first of its kind; it was devoted to strengthening scientific interaction between the North American and Latin American geophysics communities. It was hosted by Universidad Simon Bolivar and Instituto Internacional de Estudios Avanzados, in Caracas, Venezuela, during March 24-27, 1986. A total of 36 scientists from Latin America, the United States, Canada, and Europe participated. The conference, which was convened by I. Rodriguez-Iturbe (Universidad Simon Bolivar) and V. K. Gupta (University of Mississippi, University), brought together hydrologists, meteorologists, and mathematicians/statisticians in the name of enhancing an interdisciplinary focus on rainfall research.

  4. Rainfall simulation for environmental application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shriner, D.S.; Abner, C.H.; Mann, L.K.

    1977-08-01

    Rain simulation systems have been designed for field and greenhouse studies which have the capability of reproducing the physical and chemical characteristics of natural rainfall. The systems permit the simulation of variations in rainfall and droplet size similar to that of natural precipitation. The systems are completely automatic and programmable, allowing unattended operation for periods of up to one week, and have been used to expose not only vegetation but also soils and engineering materials, making them versatile tools for studies involving simulated precipitation.

  5. Rainfall, runoff and sediment transport in a Mediterranean mountainous catchment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuset, J; Vericat, D; Batalla, R J

    2016-01-01

    The relation between rainfall, runoff, erosion and sediment transport is highly variable in Mediterranean catchments. Their relation can be modified by land use changes and climate oscillations that, ultimately, will control water and sediment yields. This paper analyses rainfall, runoff and sediment transport relations in a meso-scale Mediterranean mountain catchment, the Ribera Salada (NE Iberian Peninsula). A total of 73 floods recorded between November 2005 and November 2008 at the Inglabaga Sediment Transport Station (114.5 km(2)) have been analysed. Suspended sediment transport and flow discharge were measured continuously. Rainfall data was obtained by means of direct rain gauges and daily rainfall reconstructions from radar information. Results indicate that the annual sediment yield (2.3 t km(-1) y(-1) on average) and the flood-based runoff coefficients (4.1% on average) are low. The Ribera Salada presents a low geomorphological and hydrological activity compared with other Mediterranean mountain catchments. Pearson correlations between rainfall, runoff and sediment transport variables were obtained. The hydrological response of the catchment is controlled by the base flows. The magnitude of suspended sediment concentrations is largely correlated with flood magnitude, while sediment load is correlated with the amount of direct runoff. Multivariate analysis shows that total suspended load can be predicted by integrating rainfall and runoff variables. The total direct runoff is the variable with more weight in the equation. Finally, three main hydro-sedimentary phases within the hydrological year are defined in this catchment: (a) Winter, where the catchment produces only water and very little sediment; (b) Spring, where the majority of water and sediment is produced; and (c) Summer-Autumn, when little runoff is produced but significant amount of sediments is exported out of the catchment. Results show as land use and climate change may have an important

  6. Relationships between rainfall and Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) occurrences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mailhot, A.; Talbot, G.; Lavallée, B.

    2015-04-01

    Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) has been recognized as a major environmental issue in many countries. In Canada, the proposed reinforcement of the CSO frequency regulations will result in new constraints on municipal development. Municipalities will have to demonstrate that new developments do not increase CSO frequency above a reference level based on historical CSO records. Governmental agencies will also have to define a framework to assess the impact of new developments on CSO frequency and the efficiency of the various proposed measures to maintain CSO frequency at its historic level. In such a context, it is important to correctly assess the average number of days with CSO and to define relationships between CSO frequency and rainfall characteristics. This paper investigates such relationships using available CSO and rainfall datasets for Quebec. CSO records for 4285 overflow structures (OS) were analyzed. A simple model based on rainfall thresholds was developed to forecast the occurrence of CSO on a given day based on daily rainfall values. The estimated probability of days with CSO have been used to estimate the rainfall threshold value at each OS by imposing that the probability of exceeding this rainfall value for a given day be equal to the estimated probability of days with CSO. The forecast skill of this model was assessed for 3437 OS using contingency tables. The statistical significance of the forecast skill could be assessed for 64.2% of these OS. The threshold model has demonstrated significant forecast skill for 91.3% of these OS confirming that for most OS a simple threshold model can be used to assess the occurrence of CSO.

  7. Exploring the relationship between gully erosion and rainfall erosivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campo, Miguel; Casalí, Javier; Giménez, Rafael

    2016-04-01

    Rainfall erosivity plays and important role in gully erosion. However, there are few studies that explore this relationship. The main purpose of this work is to analyse the link between observed gully erosion rates and rainfall erosivity. However, in order to get a suitable and comparable set of daily rainfall erosivity data, we firstly evaluate the performance of several daily rainfall erosivity models to estimate the daily accumulated RUSLE EI30 index. One 300 ha watershed (El Cantalar) located in Navarre (Spain) was selected to carry out field studies. A meteorological station located 10 km appart from the experimental site provided daily precipitation records since 1930 to 2009 and also 10min records since 1991 to 2009. In this watershed a total of 35 gully headcuts developed in cohesive soil were monitored. Aerial photographic stereo-pairs covering the study area were used for the survey. These were taken in five different years and at different spatial scales each time: 1956 (1: 34,000), 1967 (1:17,500), 1982 (1:13,500), 2003 (1:20,000) and 2006 (1:2000). Manual restitution of photographs was carried out. 1m resolution DEMs were obtained by triangular interpolation (Triangular Irregular Network) and then used to characterize gully headcuts. Moreover, from the aerial photos and the DEMs, ortho-photographs with a final resolution of 0.40 m were created. The geocoding of the scenes had a Root Mean Square error of less than 0.5 m both in planimetry and altimetry. Furthermore, using the DEMs and the ortho-photographs, volumetric headcut retreat rates for each period were calculated as the product of the lineal retreat and a representative section of the headcut. Daily accumulated RUSLE EI30 index was calculated in a conventional way from records of precipitation every 10 minutes for the period 1991-2009; these results were used as reference data. In addition, for the same period, this index was estimated with daily precipitation records through several models

  8. Changes in the Lethality of Frailty Over 30 Years: Evidence From Two Cohorts of 70-Year-Olds in Gothenburg Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bäckman, Kristoffer; Joas, Erik; Falk, Hanna; Mitnitski, Arnold; Rockwood, Kenneth; Skoog, Ingmar

    2017-07-01

    With aging, health deficits accumulate: people with few deficits for their age are fit, and those with more are frail. Despite recent reports of improved health in old age, how deficit accumulation is changing is not clear. Our objectives were to evaluate changes over 30 years in the degree of deficit accumulation and in the relationship between frailty and mortality in older adults. We analyzed data from two population based, prospective longitudinal cohorts, assembled in 1971-1972 and 2000-2001, respectively. Residents of Gothenburg Sweden, systematically drawn from the Swedish population registry. The 1901-1902 cohort (N = 973) had a response rate of 84.8%; the 1930 cohort (N = 500) had a response rate of 65.1%. A frailty index using 36 deficits was calculated using data from physical examinations, assessments of physical activity, daily, sensory and social function, and laboratory tests. We evaluated mortality over 12.5 years in relation to the frailty index. Mean frailty levels were the same (x¯ = 0.20, p = .37) in the 1901-1902 cohort as in the 1930 cohort. Although the frailty index was linked to the risk of death in both cohorts, the hazards ratio decreased from 1.67 per 0.1 increment in the frailty index for the first cohort to 1.32 for the second cohort (interaction term p = .005). Although frailty was as common at age 70 as before, its lethality appears to be less. Just why this is so should be explored further.

  9. Calibrating max-stable models of rainfall extremes at multiple timescales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le, Phuong Dong; Leonard, Michael; Westra, Seth

    2016-04-01

    Understanding the probabilistic behaviour of extreme rainfall events is critical for estimating the risk of flooding, leading to better design of infrastructure and management of flood events. The majority of engineering design is based on estimates of the probability of extreme rainfall known as the Intensity-Frequency-Duration relationship (IDF). IDF curves are estimated at each rain gauge and are subsequently interpolated for application to ungauged locations. The pointwise nature of IDF estimates leads to difficulties, especially at sub-daily timescales, due to the sparseness of sub-daily extreme rainfall data. As a result there is greater uncertainty and potential for bias when estimating sub-daily extreme rainfall. By using a model that incorporates dependence between spatial extremes as well as across multiple timescales, there is considerable potential to improve estimates of extreme rainfall. The aim of this research is to develop max-stable models of extreme rainfall that have both spatial dependence as well as dependence across timescales. Max-stable processes are a direct extension of the univariate generalized extreme value (GEV) model into the spatial domain. Max-stable processes provide a general framework for modelling multivariate extremes with spatial dependence for just a single duration extreme rainfall. To achieve dependence across multiple timescales, Koutsoyiannis et al. (1998) proposed a mathematical framework which expresses the parameters as a function of timescale. This parameterization is important because it allows data to be incorporated from daily rainfall stations to improve estimates at sub-daily timescales. The approach therefore addresses the issue of sparseness for sub-daily stations by exploiting the denser network of daily stations. A case study in the Hawkesbury-Nepean catchment near Sydney is used, having 82 daily gauges (>50 years) and 13 sub-daily gauges (>24 years) over a region of 300 km x 300 km area. The max

  10. Research on the Fine-Scale Spatial Uniformity of Natural Rainfall and Rainfall from a Rainfall Simulator with a Rotary Platform (RSRP)

    OpenAIRE

    Bo Liu; Xiaolei Wang; Lihua Shi; Xichuan Liu; Zhaojing Kang; Zhentao Chen

    2017-01-01

    Abstract: The accurate production of a rainfall environment similar to natural rainfall by a rainfall simulator (RS) is a crucial and challenging task in rainfall instrument testing or calibration. Although the spatial uniformity of rainfall accumulation is a key parameter of an RS, the spatial uniformity comparison between simulated rainfall and natural rainfall, and the spatial uniformity improvements for an RS are scant in the literature. In this study, a fine-scale natural rainfall experi...

  11. FREQUENCY STRUCTURE OF MAJOR RAINFALL EVENTS IN THE NORTH-EASTERN PART OF BANGLADESH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    RAQUIBUL ALAM

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The amount of rainfall received over an area is an important factor in assessing availability of water to meet various demands for agriculture, industry, irrigation, generation of hydroelectricity and other human activities. The distribution of rainfall in time and space is, therefore, an important factor for the economic development of a country. Due to rapid urbanization in various parts of the north-eastern region of Bangladesh, there is a growing need to study the rainfall pattern, and also frequency of the heavy rainfall events. This study was checked monthly average rainfall from daily records of last 50 years for this region. In order to check the major events, time history of monthly rainfall data were transformed into frequency domain using the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT. Estimated peak frequency (11.98 month depicts that major rainfall events of a year are occurring earlier than the previous year. The variability of rainfall in time scale was also checked from filtered signals, which is very useful for long-term water resources planning, agricultural development and disaster management for Bangladesh.

  12. Evaluation of multi-satellite rainfall products over India during monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitra, Ashis K.; Prakash, Satya; Pai, D. S.; Srivastava, A. K.

    2016-05-01

    Simulation and prediction of Indian monsoon rainfall at scales from days-to-season is a challenging task for numerical modelling community worldwide. Gridded estimates of daily rainfall data are required for both land and oceanic regions for model validation, process studies and in turn for model development. Due to recent developments in satellite meteorology, it has become possible to produce realistic near real-time gridded rainfall datasets at operational basis by combining satellite estimates with rain gauge values and other available in-situ observations. Microwave and space based radar based estimates of rainfall has revolutionised the preparation of rainfall datasets especially for tropics. However, a variety of multi-satellite products are available over Indian monsoon region from a variety of sources. Popular products like TRMM TMPA3B42 (RT and V7), GsMaP, CPC/RFE, GPCP and GPM are available to end users in various space/time scales for applications and model validation. In this study, we show the representation and skill of monsoon rainfall from a variety of multi-satellite products over the Indian region. The bias and skill of multi-satellite rainfall are evaluated against gauge based observations. It was found that the TRMM based TMPA was one of the best dataset for Indian monsoon region. Attempt is made to compare the latest GPM based data with other products. The GPM based rainfall product is seen to be superior compared to TRMM.

  13. Comparative Study of Monsoon Rainfall Variability over India and the Odisha State

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K C Gouda

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Indian summer monsoon (ISM plays an important role in the weather and climate system over India. The rainfall during monsoon season controls many sectors from agriculture, food, energy, and water, to the management of disasters. Being a coastal province on the eastern side of India, Odisha is one of the most important states affected by the monsoon rainfall and associated hydro-meteorological systems. The variability of monsoon rainfall is highly unpredictable at multiple scales both in space and time. In this study, the monsoon variability over the state of Odisha is studied using the daily gridded rainfall data from India Meteorological Department (IMD. A comparative analysis of the behaviour of monsoon rainfall at a larger scale (India, regional scale (Odisha, and sub-regional scale (zones of Odisha is carried out in terms of the seasonal cycle of monsoon rainfall and its interannual variability. It is seen that there is no synchronization in the seasonal monsoon category (normal/excess/deficit when analysed over large (India and regional (Odisha scales. The impact of El Niño, La Niña, and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD on the monsoon rainfall at both scales (large scale and regional scale is analysed and compared. The results show that the impact is much more for rainfall over India, but it has no such relation with the rainfall over Odisha. It is also observed that there is a positive (negative relation of the IOD with the seasonal monsoon rainfall variability over Odisha (India. The correlation between the IAV of monsoon rainfall between the large scale and regional scale was found to be 0.46 with a phase synchronization of 63%. IAV on a sub-regional scale is also presented.

  14. Estimation of rainfall thresholds for the initiation of landslides in the Ialomita Subcarpathians, Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chitu, Z.; Micu, D.; Sandric, I.; Mihai, B.

    2012-04-01

    Landslides are a common feature in the landscape of the Romanian hills and plateaus, affecting around 7% of the national territory (Pusch, 2004). It is general knowledge that landslides represent the combined result of a series of predisposing factors (lithology, faults, slope, land-use, land cover, etc.) with long term impact on slope stability and triggering factors (rainfall, snow melt, earthquakes) that temporarily modify the local hydrogeological conditions (Corominas, 2008). Rainfall represents the most common triggering factor of landslides in the Ialomita Subcarpathians, therefore the determination of rainfall thresholds for landslides initiation would be very useful for landslide hazard assessment and implementation of warning systems. This paper aims to determine regional rainfall thresholds in the Subcarpathian area between the Prahova and Ialomita Valleys, where the most frequent phenomena are: deep seated rotational slides, earth flows and complex movements (rotational slides combined with mudflow or translational slides). The methodology used in studies addressing the regional scale is based on empirical or statistical analysis of rainfall, due to the spatial and temporal variation of landslide factors. Given the lack of hourly measurements of rainfall variables for long periods in Romania we were constrained to determine the corresponding rainfall thresholds based on cumulated precipitation during the landslide events. The rainfall variables were chosen based on the typology of landslides: daily rainfall in the case of shallow landslides usually triggered by short and intense rainfall, normalized total precipitation (antecedent and event rainfall) for deep-seated landslides. After establishing what thresholds correspond to the different types of landslides, we continued by analyzing the spatial and temporal variability of the pluvial regime aiming to understand the over time occurrence of landslides in the Subcarpathian area between the Prahova and

  15. Where do forests influence rainfall?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang-Erlandsson, Lan; van der Ent, Ruud; Fetzer, Ingo; Keys, Patrick; Savenije, Hubert; Gordon, Line

    2017-04-01

    Forests play a major role in hydrology. Not only by immediate control of soil moisture and streamflow, but also by regulating climate through evaporation (i.e., transpiration, interception, and soil evaporation). The process of evaporation travelling through the atmosphere and returning as precipitation on land is known as moisture recycling. Whether evaporation is recycled depends on wind direction and geography. Moisture recycling and forest change studies have primarily focused on either one region (e.g. the Amazon), or one biome type (e.g. tropical humid forests). We will advance this via a systematic global inter-comparison of forest change impacts on precipitation depending on both biome type and geographic location. The rainfall effects are studied for three contemporary forest changes: afforestation, deforestation, and replacement of mature forest by forest plantations. Furthermore, as there are indications in the literature that moisture recycling in some places intensifies during dry years, we will also compare the rainfall impacts of forest change between wet and dry years. We model forest change effects on evaporation using the global hydrological model STEAM and trace precipitation changes using the atmospheric moisture tracking scheme WAM-2layers. This research elucidates the role of geographical location of forest change driven modifications on rainfall as a function of the type of forest change and climatic conditions. These knowledge gains are important at a time of both rapid forest and climate change. Our conclusions nuance our understanding of how forests regulate climate and pinpoint hotspot regions for forest-rainfall coupling.

  16. Trends in rainfall and temperature extremes in Morocco

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Khomsi

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available In Morocco, socioeconomic fields are vulnerable to weather extreme events. This work aims to analyze the frequency and the trends of temperature and rainfall extreme events in two contrasted Moroccan regions (the Tensift in the semi-arid South, and the Bouregreg in the sub-humid North, during the second half of the 20th century. This study considers long time series of daily extreme temperatures and rainfall, recorded in the stations of Marrakech and Safi for the Tensift region, and Kasba-Tadla and Rabat-Sale for the Bouregreg region, data from four other stations (Tanger, Fes, Agadir and Ouarzazate from outside the regions were added. Extremes are defined by using as thresholds the 1st, 5th, 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles. Results show upward trends in maximum and minimum temperatures of both regions and no generalized trends in rainfall amounts. Changes in cold events are larger than those for warm events, and the number of very cold events decrease significantly in the whole studied area. The southern region is the most affected with the changes of the temperature regime. Most of the trends found in rainfall heavy events are positive with weak magnitudes even though no statistically significant generalized trends could be identified during both seasons.

  17. Understanding Changes in frequency of extreme rainfall over Central India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnamurthy, C. B.; Lall, U.

    2010-12-01

    There has been much recent interest in examining changes in rainfall extremes of the Indian Monsoon, especially over the so-called core monsoon (Central Indian) region. Few such studies however consider the attribution to climatic variables (indices) of the observed variability. Using gridded daily rainfall data from 1901-2004, an attempt is made here to understand the evolution of frequency of extreme rainfall over the core monsoon region, and its relationship to relevant climatic indices(Equatorial India Ocean SST, an index of the Indian Ocean Dipole, NINO indices (NINO 3.4 and 1.2)). Using an objective definition of "extreme rainfall"( such that the thresholds chosen vary with grids but not overtime), two types of analyses are carried out. First, using spectral analyses (Wavelet and Multi-Taper), the relationship between climate indices and frequency of extremes are investigated. Subsequently, in a very general framework of quantile regression for count data, the existence of time trends are analyzed jointly with significance of climate indices at distinct quantiles. This approach allows for separate effects of the climate indices at different quanitles, thereby allowing for a more detailed investigation of the various relationships of interest postulated in the literature.

  18. A Preliminary Study on Rainfall Interception Loss and Water Yield Analysis on Arabica Coffee Plants in Central Aceh Regency, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reza Benara

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall interception loss from plants or trees can reduce a net rainfall as source of water yield. The amount of rainfall interception loss depends on kinds of plants and hydro-meteorological characteristics. Therefore, it is important to study rainfall interception loss such as from Arabica Coffee plantation which is as main agricultural commodity for Central Aceh Regency. In this study, rainfall interception loss from Arabica Coffee plants was studied in Kebet Village of Central Aceh Regency, Indonesia from January 20 to March 9, 2011. Arabica coffee plants used in this study was 15 years old, height of 1.5 m and canopy of 4.567 m2. Rainfall interception loss was determined based on water balance approach of daily rainfall, throughfall, and stemflow data. Empirical regression equation between rainfall interception loss and rainfall were adopted as a model to estimate rainfall interception loss from Arabica Coffee plantation, which the coefficient of correlation, r is 0.98. In water yield analysis, this formula was applied and founded that Arabica Coffee plants intercept 76% of annual rainfall or it leaved over annual net rainfall 24% of annual rainfall. Using this net rainfall, water yield produced from Paya Bener River which is the catchment area covered by Arabica Coffee plantation was analyzed in a planning of water supply project for water needs domestic of 3 sub-districts in Central Aceh Regency. Based on increasing population until year of 2025, the results showed that the water yield will be not enough from year of 2015. However, if the catchment area is covered by forest, the water yield is still enough until year of 2025

  19. On the Climatology of Persistent Heavy Rainfall Events in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    Persistent heavy rainfall events (PHR events) comprise one category of weather- and climate- related extreme events. Based on daily rainfall data measured in China during the period of 1951-2004, several quantitative criteria were developed to define PHR events by means of their precipitation intensity, temporal duration, spatial extent and persistence. Then a semi-objective classification based on these criteria was applied to summer daily rainfall data to identify all PHR events. A total of 197 events were observed during the study period. All events were further classified into 5 categories according to their coinprehensive intensity; into 3 types according to their circulation regime; and into 8 groups according to the geographic locations of their rainbands. Based on these different classifications, finally, the behaviors of 130 PHR events identified as the most severe, severe and moderate categories since the year of 1951, including characteristics of the spatial and temporal distributions of their frequencies, intensities, and rainbands,were investigated in order to present a comprehensive description of the PHR events. The results will be helpful to the future study of revealing and understanding the processes that govern the production of the PHR events and to the improvement of the forecasts of the PHR events.

  20. Understanding extreme rainfall events in Australia through historical data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashcroft, Linden; Karoly, David John

    2016-04-01

    Historical climate data recovery is still an emerging field in the Australian region. The majority of Australia's instrumental climate analyses begin in 1900 for rainfall and 1910 for temperature, particularly those focussed on extreme event analysis. This data sparsity for the past in turn limits our understanding of long-term climate variability, constraining efforts to predict the impact of future climate change. To address this need for improved historical data in Australia, a new network of recovered climate observations has recently been developed, centred on the highly populated southeastern Australian region (Ashcroft et al., 2014a, 2014b). The dataset includes observations from more than 39 published and unpublished sources and extends from British settlement in 1788 to the formation of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology in 1908. Many of these historical sources provide daily temperature and rainfall information, providing an opportunity to improve understanding of the multidecadal variability of Australia's extreme events. In this study we combine the historical data for three major Australian cities - Melbourne, Sydney and Adelaide - with modern observations to examine extreme rainfall variability over the past 174 years (1839-2013). We first explore two case studies, combining instrumental and documentary evidence to support the occurrence of severe storms in Sydney in 1841 and 1844. These events appear to be at least as extreme as Sydney's modern 24-hour rainfall record. Next we use a suite of rainfall indices to assess the long-term variability of rainfall in southeastern Australia. In particular, we focus on the stationarity of the teleconnection between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and extreme rainfall events. Using ENSO reconstructions derived from both palaeoclimatic and documentary sources, we determine the historical relationship between extreme rainfall in southeastern Australia and ENSO, and examine whether or not this

  1. Health risk or resource? Gradual and independent association between self-rated health and mortality persists over 30 years.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthias Bopp

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Poor self-rated health (SRH is associated with increased mortality. However, most studies only adjust for few health risk factors and/or do not analyse whether this association is consistent also for intermediate categories of SRH and for follow-up periods exceeding 5-10 years. This study examined whether the SRH-mortality association remained significant 30 years after assessment when adjusting for a wide range of known clinical, behavioural and socio-demographic risk factors. METHODS: We followed-up 8,251 men and women aged ≥ 16 years who participated 1977-79 in a community based health study and were anonymously linked with the Swiss National Cohort (SNC until the end of 2008. Covariates were measured at baseline and included education, marital status, smoking, medical history, medication, blood glucose and pressure. RESULTS: 92.8% of the original study participants could be linked to a census, mortality or emigration record of the SNC. Loss to follow-up 1980-2000 was 5.8%. Even after 30 years of follow-up and after adjustment for all covariates, the association between SRH and all-cause mortality remained strong and estimates almost linearly increased from "excellent" (reference: hazard ratio, HR 1 to "good" (men: HR 1.07 95% confidence interval 0.92-1.24, women: 1.22, 1.01-1.46 to "fair" (1.41, 1.18-1.68; 1.39, 1.14-1.70 to "poor"(1.61, 1.15-2.25; 1.49, 1.07-2.06 to "very poor" (2.85, 1.25-6.51; 1.30, 0.18-9.35. Persons answering the SRH question with "don't know" (1.87, 1.21-2.88; 1.26, 0.87-1.83 had also an increased mortality risk; this was pronounced in men and in the first years of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: SRH is a strong and "dose-dependent" predictor of mortality. The association was largely independent from covariates and remained significant after decades. This suggests that SRH provides relevant and sustained health information beyond classical risk factors or medical history and reflects salutogenetic rather than

  2. Effects of rainfall intensity and intermittency on woody vegetation cover and deep soil moisture in dryland ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ding-Hai; Li, Xin-Rong; Zhang, Feng; Zhang, Zhi-Shan; Chen, Yong-Le

    2016-12-01

    Identifying the relationship between the stochastic daily rainfall regime and the dynamics of plants and soil moisture is fundamental for the sustainable management of dryland ecosystems in a context of global climate change. An eco-hydrological model that couples the dynamics of woody vegetation cover and deep soil moisture (typically with a depth interval of 30-150 cm) was used to investigate the effect of stochastic intensity and the intermittency of precipitation on soil moisture in this deep interval, which affects woody vegetation cover. Our results suggest that the precipitation intensity and intermittency play an important role in the dynamics of wood vegetation cover and deep soil moisture. In arid and semiarid regions, as the annual precipitation increased, the rate of woody vegetation cover increased as a power-law function, and the deep soil moisture increased exponentially. For a given annual rainfall, there were positive correlations between the rainfall intensity (or rainfall intermittency) and both the woody vegetation cover and deep soil moisture. The positive correlations between wood vegetation cover and both rainfall intensity and intermittency may decrease with increases in the precipitation intensity or precipitation intermittency. The positive correlations between deep soil moisture and both rainfall intensity and rainfall intermittency increase as the precipitation intensity or precipitation intermittency increases. Moreover, these positive correlations may increase with increases in the mean annual rainfall. Our results emphasize the importance of daily precipitation variations in controlling the responses of woody vegetation cover and deep soil moisture to climate variations in arid and semiarid regions. Our model can aid the understanding of rainfall processes and indicates that increases in rainfall intensity or rainfall intermittency may lead to an increase in woody vegetation cover and deep soil moisture given an invariable annual

  3. Hydrological Evaluation of TRMM Rainfall over the Upper Senegal River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ansoumana Bodian

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The availability of climatic data, especially on a daily time step, has become very rare in West Africa over the last few years due to the high costs of climate data monitoring. This scarcity of climatic data is a huge obstacle to conduct hydrological studies over some watersheds. In this context, our study aimed to evaluate the capacity of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM satellite data to simulate the observed runoffs over the Bafing (the main important tributary of the Senegal River before their potential integration in hydrological studies. The conceptual hydrological model GR4J (modèle du Génie Rural (Agricultural Engineering Model à 4 paramètres Journalier (4 parameters Daily has been used, calibrated and validated over the 1961–1997 period with rainfall and Potential Evapotranspiration (PET as inputs. Then, the parameters that best reflect the rainfall-runoff relation, obtained during the cross-calibration-validation phase, were used to simulate runoff over the 1998–2004 period using observed and TRMM rainfalls. The findings of this study show that there is a high consistency between satellite-based estimates and ground-based observations of rainfall. Over the 1998–2004 simulation period, the two rainfall data series show quite satisfactorily results. The output hydrographs from satellite-based estimates and ground-based observations of rainfall coincide quite well with the shape of observed hydrographs with Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient (NSE of 0.88 and 0.80 for observed rainfalls and TRMM rainfalls, respectively.

  4. Multiscale characteristics of the rainy season rainfall and interdecadal decaying of summer monsoon in North China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DAI Xingang; WANG Ping; CHOU Jifan

    2003-01-01

    This paper focuses on the rainfall spectrum and its evolution of North China in rainy season with summer monsoon decaying in interdecadal time scale. The interannual component of the rainfall is the dominant part, accounting for 85% of the total variance, and has been changed significantly during the last 30 years. According to wavelet analysis its 5a periodic spectrum suddenly disappeared in the late 1960s, and its biennial oscillation gradually become weaker and weaker since 1970, accompanied by the summer monsoon decaying. Contrarily, the interdecadal component is principal in the summer monsoon over North China and is very similar to the counterpart of the rainfall. Their interdecadal parts are significantly correlated, and the correlation coefficient is nearly equal to the one of the original sequences. Besides, the dry and wet climate alternated with the monsoon abrupt changes in the 1960s and the 1970s over East Asia, apart from North China, climate drifted from a light drought to a severe drought during the past 30 years.

  5. Attributes for NHDPlus Catchments (Version 1.1) for the Conterminous United States: 30-Year Average Annual Maximum Temperature, 1971-2000

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This data set represents the 30-year (1971-2000) average annual maximum temperature in Celsius multiplied by 100 compiled for every catchment of NHDPlus for the...

  6. Attributes for NHDPlus Catchments (Version 1.1) for the Conterminous United States: 30-Year Average Annual Minimum Temperature, 1971-2000

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This data set represents the 30-year (1971-2000) average annual minimum temperature in Celsius multiplied by 100 compiled for every catchment of NHDPlus for the...

  7. Attributes for MRB_E2RF1 Catchments by Major River Basins in the Conterminous United States: 30-Year Average Annual Precipitation, 1971-2000

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This tabular data set represents the 30-year (1971-2000) average annual precipitation in millimeters multiplied by 100 compiled for every MRB_E2RF1 catchment of...

  8. Attributes for NHDPlus Catchments (Version 1.1) for the Conterminous United States: 30-Year Average Annual Precipitation, 1971-2000

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This data set represents the 30-year (1971-2000) average annual precipitation in millimeters multiplied by 100 compiled for every catchment of NHDPlus for the...

  9. Detection of Spatio-temporal variations of rainfall and temperature extremes over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hari, V.; Karmakar, S.; Ghosh, S.

    2012-12-01

    Hydrologic disturbances are commonly associated with the phenomenal occurrence of extreme events. The human kind has always been facing problem with hydrologic extremes in terms of deaths and economic loss. Hence, a complete analysis of observed extreme events will have a substantial role in planning, designing and management of the water resource systems. In India, the occurrence of extreme events, such as heavy rainfall, which is directly associated with the flash flood have been observed. For example; in 2005, Mumbai city of India suffered a huge economic damage, due to the record rainfall of 94 cm in a day. In the same year, two other major cities Chennai and Bangalore had also experienced the flash floods due to the heavy rainfall. Hence, occurrence of these recent events instigates researchers to investigate long term variation and trend of extreme rainfall over India. Very few previous studies have been conducted in India either considering a particular region or by considering a single extreme rainfall variable (either frequency or intensity of rainfall). In the present study, rainfall variables such as intensity, duration, frequency and volume are considered to investigate spatio-temporal variations for the entire India. The peak over threshold method with 95 percentile is considered to delineate the extreme variables from the observed rainfall data available (at 1×1 deg) for a period of 1901-2004. The temporal variability is determined by implementing a moving window of 30 years. As well as, the correlation analysis is conducted with the implementation of non-parametric coefficients. The spatio-temporal variability of 50 year return level (RL) for the rainfall intensity is determined considering Generalized Pareto and non-parametric kernel distributions as best fit. To identify the significant changes in the derived RL from first to last time window, a bootstrap-based approach proposed by Kharin and Zwiers (2005, Jl. of Climate, 18, 1156-1173) is

  10. 30 years, some 700 integrals, and 1 dessert, or: Electroweak two-loop corrections to the Zbb vertex

    CERN Document Server

    Dubovyk, I; Gluza, J; Riemann, T; Usovitsch, J

    2016-01-01

    The one-loop corrections to the weak mixing angle $\\sin^2\\theta_{eff}^b$ derived from the $Z{\\bar b}b$ vertex, are known since 1985. It took another 30 years to calculate the complete electroweak two-loop corrections to $\\sin^2\\theta_{eff}^b$. The main obstacle was the calculation of the O(700) bosonic two-loop vertex integrals with up to three mass scales, at $s=M_Z^2$. We did not perform the usual integral reduction and master evaluation, but chose a completely numerical approach, using two different calculational chains. One method relies on publicly available sector decomposition implementations. Further, we derived Mellin-Barnes (MB) representations, exploring the publicly available MB suite. We had to supplement the MB suite by two new packages: AMBRE~3, a Mathematica program, for the efficient treatment of non-planar integrals and MBnumerics for advanced numerics in the Minkowskian space-time. Our preliminary result for LL2016, the "dessert", for the electroweak bosonic two-loop contributions to $\\sin^...

  11. Committed retreat of Smith, Pope, and Kohler Glaciers over the next 30 years inferred by transient model calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldberg, D. N.; Heimbach, P.; Joughin, I.; Smith, B.

    2015-12-01

    A glacial flow model of Smith, Pope and Kohler Glaciers is calibrated by means of control methods against time varying, annually resolved observations of ice height and velocities, covering the period 2002 to 2011. The inversion - termed "transient calibration" - produces an optimal set of time-mean, spatially varying parameters together with a time-evolving state that accounts for the transient nature of observations and the model dynamics. Serving as an optimal initial condition, the estimated state for 2011 is used, with no additional forcing, for predicting grounded ice volume loss and grounding line retreat over the ensuing 30 years. The transiently calibrated model predicts a near-steady loss of grounded ice volume of approximately 21 km3 a-1 over this period, as well as loss of 33 km2 a-1 grounded area. We contrast this prediction with one obtained following a commonly used "snapshot" or steady-state inversion, which does not consider time dependence and assumes all observations to be contemporaneous. Transient calibration is shown to achieve a better fit with observations of thinning and grounding line retreat histories, and yields a quantitatively different projection with respect to ice volume loss and ungrounding. Sensitivity studies suggest large near-future levels of unforced, i.e., committed sea level contribution from these ice streams under reasonable assumptions regarding uncertainties of the unknown parameters.

  12. Recovery and reproduction of an Antarctic tardigrade retrieved from a moss sample frozen for over 30 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsujimoto, Megumu; Imura, Satoshi; Kanda, Hiroshi

    2016-02-01

    Long-term survival has been one of the most studied of the extraordinary physiological characteristics of cryptobiosis in micrometazoans such as nematodes, tardigrades and rotifers. In the available studies of long-term survival of micrometazoans, instances of survival have been the primary observation, and recovery conditions of animals or subsequent reproduction are generally not reported. We therefore documented recovery conditions and reproduction immediately following revival of tardigrades retrieved from a frozen moss sample collected in Antarctica in 1983 and stored at -20 °C for 30.5 years. We recorded recovery of two individuals and development of a separate egg of the Antarctic tardigrade, Acutuncus antarcticus, providing the longest records of survival for tardigrades as animals or eggs. One of the two resuscitated individuals and the hatchling successfully reproduced repeatedly after their recovery from long-term cryptobiosis. This considerable extension of the known length of long-term survival of tardigrades recorded in our study is interpreted as being associated with the minimum oxidative damage likely to have resulted from storage under stable frozen conditions. The long recovery times of the revived tardigrades observed is suggestive of the requirement for repair of damage accrued over 30 years of cryptobiosis. Further more detailed studies will improve understanding of mechanisms and conditions underlying the long-term survival of cryptobiotic organisms. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Changes in population structure and growth of skipjack tuna, Katsuwonus pelamis during 30 years of exploitation in the southwestern Atlantic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thais Garbin

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The skipjack tuna is the main tuna species caught in Brazil with pole and live-bait. Samples taken during 1984-1986 and the 2004-2009 periods provided length, weight and age data. A comparison of the population structure was made showing a decrease in the median and means of fork length in the 80's (median: 55 cm and recent years (median: 51 cm, an increased participation of smaller individuals (40 cm in recent catches, a high variability of lengths in each year class and a decrease of the condition factor K. These results indicate alterations in the population structure and dynamics. The von Bertalanffy growth parameters calculated for the recent years were L∞= 669 mm; k = 0.24 yr-1; t o = -3.8. CPUE data for the studied period seems to be stable (mean annual catch of 20,000 ton. However, the unit of effort used in Brazil (fishing days does not reflect changes in fishing power and technology properly as occurred during 30 years of exploitation. It is concluded that the present situation requires a close monitoring of the fishery.

  14. Exposure to environmental tobacco smoke and birth outcome: increased effects on pregnant women aged 30 years or older.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahluwalia, I B; Grummer-Strawn, L; Scanlon, K S

    1997-07-01

    The purposes of this study were to examine the association between self-reported environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) exposure during pregnancy and birth weight, prematurity, and small-for-gestational age infants and to determine whether these associations differ by maternal age. Data from the Pregnancy Nutrition Surveillance System from two states that collected data on both passive and active smoking for the period 1989-1994 were analyzed. ETS exposure was defined as reported exposure to the cigarette smoke of a household member. Multiple logistic and linear regression analyses were used to evaluate the association between ETS and birth outcomes. The mean adjusted birth weight among infants of nonsmoking mothers age 30 years or older was 90 g less among infants exposed to ETS than among infants not exposed. No significant association was found among infants of younger nonsmoking mothers. Similarly, the risks for low birth weight (adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 2.42, 95% confidence interval 1.51-3.87) and preterm delivery (adjusted OR = 1.88, 95% confidence interval 1.22-2.88) were elevated among older nonsmokers exposed to ETS, but not among younger nonsmokers exposed to ETS (adjusted OR = 0.97, 95% confidence interval 0.76-1.23; adjusted OR = 0.92, 95% confidence interval 0.76-1.13, for low birth weight and preterm delivery, respectively). These findings indicate that the association between ETS exposure and adverse pregnancy outcomes appears to be modified by maternal age.

  15. The Close AGN Reference Survey (CARS) - What is causing Mrk1018's return to the shadows after 30 years?

    CERN Document Server

    Husemann, B; Tremblay, G R; Krumpe, M; Dexter, J; Busch, G; Combes, F; Croom, S M; Davis, T A; Eckart, A; McElroy, R E; Perez-Torres, M; Powell, M; Scharwächter, J

    2016-01-01

    We recently discovered that the active galactic nucleus (AGN) of Mrk 1018 has changed optical type again after 30 years as a type 1 AGN. Here we combine Chandra, NuStar, Swift, Hubble Space Telescope and ground-based observations to explore the cause of this change. The 2-10keV flux declines by a factor of ~8 between 2010 and 2016. We show with our X-ray observation that this is not caused by varying neutral hydrogen absorption along the line-of-sight up to the Compton-thick level. The optical-UV spectral energy distributions are well fit with a standard geometrically thin optically thick accretion disc model that seems to obey the expected $L\\sim T^4$ relation. It confirms that a decline in accretion disc luminosity is the primary origin for the type change. We detect a new narrow-line absorber in Lya blue-shifted by ~700km/s with respect to the systemic velocity of the galaxy. This new Lya absorber could be evidence for the onset of an outflow or a companion black hole with associated gas that could be rela...

  16. Heterogeneity in subcortical brain development: A structural magnetic resonance imaging study of brain maturation from 8 to 30 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostby, Ylva; Tamnes, Christian K; Fjell, Anders M; Westlye, Lars T; Due-Tønnessen, Paulina; Walhovd, Kristine B

    2009-09-23

    Brain development during late childhood and adolescence is characterized by decreases in gray matter (GM) and increases in white matter (WM) and ventricular volume. The dynamic nature of development across different structures is, however, not well understood, and the present magnetic resonance imaging study took advantage of a whole-brain segmentation approach to describe the developmental trajectories of 16 neuroanatomical volumes in the same sample of children, adolescents, and young adults (n = 171; range, 8-30 years). The cerebral cortex, cerebral WM, caudate, putamen, pallidum, accumbens area, hippocampus, amygdala, thalamus, brainstem, cerebellar GM, cerebellar WM, lateral ventricles, inferior lateral ventricles, third ventricle, and fourth ventricle were studied. The cerebral cortex was further analyzed in terms of lobar thickness and surface area. The results revealed substantial heterogeneity in developmental trajectories. GM decreased nonlinearly in the cerebral cortex and linearly in the caudate, putamen, pallidum, accumbens, and cerebellar GM, whereas the amygdala and hippocampus showed slight, nonlinear increases in GM volume. WM increased nonlinearly in both the cerebrum and cerebellum, with an earlier maturation in cerebellar WM. In addition to similarities in developmental trajectories within subcortical regions, our results also point to differences between structures within the same regions: among the basal ganglia, the caudate showed a weaker relationship with age than the putamen and pallidum, and in the cerebellum, differences were found between GM and WM development. These results emphasize the importance of studying a wide range of structural variables in the same sample, for a broader understanding of brain developmental principles.

  17. HIV-1 Immunogen: an overview of almost 30 years of clinical testing of a candidate therapeutic vaccine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graziani, Gina M; Angel, Jonathan B

    2016-07-01

    Although current antiretroviral therapy (ART) has transformed HIV infection into a chronic, manageable disease, ART does not cure HIV infection. Furthermore, the majority of the world's infected individuals live in resource-limited countries in which access to ART is limited. Thus, the development of an effective therapeutic HIV vaccine would be an invaluable treatment alternative. Developed by the late Dr. Jonas Salk, HIV-1 Immunogen (Remune®) is a candidate therapeutic vaccine that has been studied in thousands of HIV-infected individuals in more than a dozen clinical trials during almost three decades. This Drug Evaluation, which summarizes the results of these trials that have shown the vaccine to be safe and immunogenic, also discusses the contradictory and controversial conclusions drawn from the phases 2, 2/3 and 3 trials that assessed the clinical efficacy of this vaccine. Given the lack of unequivocal clinical benefits of HIV-1 Immunogen despite almost 30 years of extensive testing, it does not appear, in our view, that this vaccine is a clinically effective immunotherapy. However, inclusion of this vaccine in the newly proposed 'Kick/Shock and Kill' strategy for HIV eradication, or use as a prophylactic vaccine, could be considered for future trials.

  18. Pediatricorthopedics:glorious30yearsJI S%小儿骨科辉煌30年

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吉士俊; 郭源; 张立军

    2015-01-01

    Pediatric orthopedics got a great development in the past 30 years. The type-B ultrasonic became an important detection method for developmental dysplasia of the hip as a higher standard of living and neonate screening. The application of Ponseti method brought signiifcant curative effects in the treatment of congenital clubfoot. Minimally invasive treatment was realized in traumatic fracture. We have got some experience of Ilizarov technique which was used in limb lengthening. The development of the spinal surgery was fast because of applications of needles and sticks, and the effects of the deformity correction were satisfactory. With the help of chemotherapy, the survival rate of osteosarcoma in 5 years achieved 80% after salvage limb operation. Our professional staff should popularize the technique of pediatric orthopedics to meet the needs of 300 000 000 children. Professional surgeons should master more skills, strengthen the leaning ability and develop the collective intelligence in the diagnosis and treatment. We should emphasize scientiifc research and innovation, and improve the ability of scientiifc thinking. The humanistic care should be valued in clinical work. We all need to be communicative and serve the patients enthusiastically. Then, pediatric orthopedics will be more prosperous and lfourishing.

  19. Clinical phenotypes of autoimmune polyendocrinopathycandidiasis-ectodermal dystrophy seen in the Northern Ireland paediatric population over the last 30 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millar, Sarinda; Carson, Dennis

    2012-09-01

    Autoimmune polyendocrinopathy-candidiasis-ectodermal dystrophy (APECED), also known as autoimmune polyendocrinopathy syndrome type 1, is a rare autosomal recessive disorder with a variable and evolving phenotypic course. It is caused by mutations in the autoimmune regulator (AIRE) gene. APECED syndrome is diagnosed clinically by the presence of 2 from 3 major criteria; chronic mucocutaneous candidasis, primary hypoparathyroidism and primary adrenocortical insufficiency. Many of the patients develop all three before the age of 20 years. There is also a wide spectrum of other associated conditions including endocrine and non endocrine manifestations. This paper reviews the clinical phenotypes seen in the paediatric population of Northern Ireland during the last 30 years detailed from a retrospective review of clinical notes. Eight patients were identified with APECED and all patients were found to be homozygous for the c.964dell3 mutation. A wide clinical variation is apparent within APECED syndrome. Paediatricians should be vigilant of the diagnosis when they encounter any of the features described and consider the future development of associated diseases. In confirmed APECED syndrome, clinical and laboratory investigation is essential to initiate early treatment in the patient and other affected members of the family.

  20. Changes in the area of inland lakes in arid regions of central Asia during the past 30 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Jie; Chen, Xi; Li, Junli; Yang, Liao; Fang, Hui

    2011-07-01

    Inland lakes are major surface water resource in arid regions of Central Asia. The area changes in these lakes have been proved to be the results of regional climate changes and recent human activities. This study aimed at investigating the area variations of the nine major lakes in Central Asia over the last 30 years. Firstly, multi-temporal Landsat imagery in 1975, 1990, 1999, and 2007 were used to delineate lake extents automatically based on Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) threshold segmentation, then lake area variations were detailed in three decades and the mechanism of these changes was analyzed with meteorological data and hydrological data. The results indicated that the total surface areas of these nine lakes had decreased from 91,402.06 km(2) to 46,049.23 km(2) during 1975-2007, accounting for 49.62% of their original area of 1975. Tail-end lakes in flat areas had shrunk dramatically as they were induced by both climate changes and human impacts, while alpine lakes remained relatively stable due to the small precipitation variations. With different water usage of river outlets, the variations of open lakes were more flexible than those of other two types. According to comprehensive analyses, different types of inland lakes presented different trends of area changes under the background of global warming effects in Central Asia, which showed that the increased human activities had broken the balance of water cycles in this region.

  1. Organizing Principles of Human Cortical Development--Thickness and Area from 4 to 30 Years: Insights from Comparative Primate Neuroanatomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amlien, Inge K; Fjell, Anders M; Tamnes, Christian K; Grydeland, Håkon; Krogsrud, Stine K; Chaplin, Tristan A; Rosa, Marcello G P; Walhovd, Kristine B

    2016-01-01

    The human cerebral cortex undergoes a protracted, regionally heterogeneous development well into young adulthood. Cortical areas that expand the most during human development correspond to those that differ most markedly when the brains of macaque monkeys and humans are compared. However, it remains unclear to what extent this relationship derives from allometric scaling laws that apply to primate brains in general, or represents unique evolutionary adaptations. Furthermore, it is unknown whether the relationship only applies to surface area (SA), or also holds for cortical thickness (CT). In 331 participants aged 4 to 30, we calculated age functions of SA and CT, and examined the correspondence of human cortical development with macaque to human expansion, and with expansion across nonhuman primates. CT followed a linear negative age function from 4 to 30 years, while SA showed positive age functions until 12 years with little further development. Differential cortical expansion across primates was related to regional maturation of SA and CT, with age trajectories differing between high- and low-expanding cortical regions. This relationship adhered to allometric scaling laws rather than representing uniquely macaque-human differences: regional correspondence with human development was as large for expansion across nonhuman primates as between humans and macaque.

  2. Childhood family income and life outcomes in adulthood: findings from a 30-year longitudinal study in New Zealand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibb, Sheree J; Fergusson, David M; Horwood, L John

    2012-06-01

    The aims of this study were to use data gathered over the course of a 30-year longitudinal study to examine the linkages between economic circumstances in childhood and subsequent developmental outcomes spanning educational achievement; economic circumstances; crime; mental health; and teenage pregnancy. All of these outcomes have been linked with childhood economic conditions and it is frequently argued that reducing income inequalities will mitigate psychosocial risks of children reared in families facing economic hardship. Alternatively it may be suggested that the associations between childhood family economic circumstances and later outcomes are mediated by individual, family and social factors that are correlated with low family income and contribute to later outcomes. To examine these issues, data were drawn from a birth cohort of New Zealand children born in 1977 and followed to age 30. Declining childhood family income was associated with a range of negative outcomes in adulthood, including: lower educational achievement; poorer economic circumstances; higher rates of criminal offending; higher rates of mental health problems; and higher rates of teenage pregnancy. After covariate adjustment, childhood family income remained significantly associated with educational achievement and economic circumstances, but was no longer significantly associated with the mental health, offending and teenage pregnancy outcomes. These findings suggest that, after due allowance has been made for social, family and individual contextual factors, low family income during childhood is associated with a range of educational and economic disadvantages in adulthood but is not directly related to increased risks of crime, mental health problems or teen pregnancy.

  3. MRO SOW Daily Script

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Forest E.; Khanampornpan, Teerapat; Gladden, Roy E.

    2008-01-01

    The MRO SOW daily script (wherein "MRO" signifies "Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter" and "SOW" signifies "sequence systems engineer of the week") is a computer program that automates portions of the MRO daily SOW procedure, which includes checking file-system sizes and automated sequence processor (ASP) log files. The MRO SOW daily script effects clear reporting of (1) the status of, and requirements imposed on, the file system and (2) the ASP log files.

  4. Who changes body mass between adolescence and adulthood? Factors predicting change in BMI between 16 year and 30 years in the 1970 British Birth Cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viner, R M; Cole, T J

    2006-09-01

    To examine whether factors common to obesity prevention programmes in adolescence, namely exercise, sedentary activities, eating behaviours and psychological factors, predict change in BMI in 'free-living' adolescents followed into adulthood. Longitudinal national birth cohort study. 1970 British Birth Cohort: 4461 subjects with data on BMI at 16 years (1986) and 30 years (2000). BMI z-score (zBMI) at 16 years (measured) and 30 years (self-reported). Obesity defined as BMI exceeding 95th British centile and 28.5 kg/m2, respectively. Self-report data on exercise, eating behaviours, dieting and measures of psychological function (depression, psychological distress, self-esteem) at 16 years. Models were produced for the regression of zBMI at 30 years on each variable at 16 years, adjusted for socioeconomic status, sex and zBMI at 16 years. In all, 467 (8.2%) were obese at 16 years and 730 (16.4%) were obese at 30 years. Of those obese at 16 years, 60.7% were also obese at 30 years. Loss of zBMI between 16 and 30 years was predicted by female sex (P=0.01), higher social class (Pchildhood into adult life.

  5. A Study of Rainfall Variations in the Philippines: 1950-1996

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    Bonifacio Pajuelas

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available The long-period rainfall variations in the Philippines are studied using unfiltered and filtered Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI. To have RAI’s that are representative for each group, zones of quasi-homogeneous climate were constructed based on highly correlated stations (r > 0.75, narrow standard deviation, and period of maximum rainfall using the 1950-1996 monthly rainfall total. Variance analyses of the RAI’s suggest that unfiltered samples do not significantly differ from the normal distribution except for the western part (climate type 1 that have significant positive skewness and peakedness. The RAI’s contain a significant amount of non-random elements and a significant negative change in mean is reflected over the central Visayas and Mindanao (climate type 3. Filtered RAI’s that are not significantly different from the normal distribution (at least for c2 test indicated significant trend over areas with high-variable rainfall (i.e., climate types 1, 2, 4 & 5.In general, long-period rainfall may have changed over the period of study. The 10-year filtered RAI’s have the possibility of falling rate over climate types 1, 2 & 5, but increasing rate over climate type 4. These trends are indicated towards the rainfall-sensitive months (i.e., February through May during El Niño or La Niña events. Falling rate is also significant from October through January over climate type 4. Longer periods (30-year filtered RAI’s have significant negative trend for climate types 2 &4, but positive trend for climate type 5. These trends also occurred during February through May.

  6. Rainfall disaggregation for urban hydrology: Effects of spatial consistence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Hannes; Haberlandt, Uwe

    2015-04-01

    For urban hydrology rainfall time series with a high temporal resolution are crucial. Observed time series of this kind are very short in most cases, so they cannot be used. On the contrary, time series with lower temporal resolution (daily measurements) exist for much longer periods. The objective is to derive time series with a long duration and a high resolution by disaggregating time series of the non-recording stations with information of time series of the recording stations. The multiplicative random cascade model is a well-known disaggregation model for daily time series. For urban hydrology it is often assumed, that a day consists of only 1280 minutes in total as starting point for the disaggregation process. We introduce a new variant for the cascade model, which is functional without this assumption and also outperforms the existing approach regarding time series characteristics like wet and dry spell duration, average intensity, fraction of dry intervals and extreme value representation. However, in both approaches rainfall time series of different stations are disaggregated without consideration of surrounding stations. This yields in unrealistic spatial patterns of rainfall. We apply a simulated annealing algorithm that has been used successfully for hourly values before. Relative diurnal cycles of the disaggregated time series are resampled to reproduce the spatial dependence of rainfall. To describe spatial dependence we use bivariate characteristics like probability of occurrence, continuity ratio and coefficient of correlation. Investigation area is a sewage system in Northern Germany. We show that the algorithm has the capability to improve spatial dependence. The influence of the chosen disaggregation routine and the spatial dependence on overflow occurrences and volumes of the sewage system will be analyzed.

  7. Method for generating spatial and temporal synthetic hourly rainfall in the Valley of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendoza-Resendiz, Alejandro; Arganis-Juarez, Maritza; Dominguez-Mora, Ramon; Echavarria, Bernardo

    2013-10-01

    Hydrological risk analyses require a dense pluviometer network and a long period of records with an adequate time resolution; usually pluviometer networks have short periods of simultaneous records, so it is required to extend the number of records by means of synthetically generated rainfall events. This paper describes the development and implementation of a method based on a daily rainfall disaggregation for generating synthetic rainfall events distributed spatially and temporally. It uses the information recorded in 49 rain-gauge stations in the network of the basin of the Valley of Mexico during the rainy season from 1988 to 2006. Within various methods found in the literature, we consider that this one provides a greater simplicity for a practical implementation. The tests carried out showed that rainfall events generated with this method properly reproduce the statistical parameters of the historical records, including those that are not implicitly incorporated in the model, as is the case of the synthetic hourly rainfall, whose statistical values are virtually identical to the historical ones despite that the proposed method only uses the probability distribution of maximum daily rainfall.

  8. Spatial-Temporal Variation and Prediction of Rainfall in Northeastern Nigeria

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    Umar M. Bibi

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In Northeastern Nigeria seasonal rainfall is critical for the availability of water for domestic use through surface and sub-surface recharge and agricultural production, which is mostly rain fed. Variability in rainfall over the last 60 years is the main cause for crop failure and water scarcity in the region, particularly, due to late onset of rainfall, short dry spells and multi-annual droughts. In this study, we analyze 27 years (1980–2006 of gridded daily rainfall data obtained from a merged dataset by the National Centre for Environmental Prediction and Climate Research Unit reanalysis data (NCEP-CRU for spatial-temporal variability of monthly amounts and frequency in rainfall and rainfall trends. Temporal variability was assessed using the percentage coefficient of variation and temporal trends in rainfall were assessed using maps of linear regression slopes for the months of May through October. These six months cover the period of the onset and cessation of the wet season throughout the region. Monthly rainfall amount and frequency were then predicted over a 24-month period using the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA Model. The predictions were evaluated using NCEP-CRU data for the same period. Kolmogorov Smirnov test results suggest that despite there are some months during the wet season (May–October when there is no significant agreement (p < 0.05 between the monthly distribution of the values of the model and the corresponding 24-month NCEP-CRU data, the model did better than simply replicating the long term mean of the data used for the prediction. Overall, the model does well in areas and months with lower temporal rainfall variability. Maps of the coefficient of variation and regression slopes are presented to indicate areas of high rainfall variability and water deficit over the period under study. The implications of these results for future policies on Agriculture and Water Management in the region are

  9. Vegetation response to rainfall seasonality and interannual variability in tropical dry forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, X.; Silva Souza, R. M.; Souza, E.; Antonino, A.; Montenegro, S.; Porporato, A. M.

    2015-12-01

    We analyzed the response of tropical dry forests to seasonal and interannual rainfall variability, focusing on the caatinga biome in semi-arid in Northeast Brazil. We selected four sites across a gradient of rainfall amount and seasonality and analyzed daily rainfall and biweekly Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the period 2000-2014. The seasonal and interannual rainfall statistics were characterized using recently developed metrics describing duration, location, and intensity of wet season and compared them with those of NDVI time series and modelled soil moisture. A model of NDVI was also developed and forced by different rainfall scenarios (combination amount of rainfall and duration of wet season). The results show that the caatinga tends to have a more stable response characterized by longer and less variable growing seasons (of duration 3.1±0.1 months) compared to the rainfall wet seasons (2.0±0.5 months). Even for more extreme rainfall conditions, the ecosystem shows very little sensitivity to duration of wet season in relation to the amount of rainfall, however the duration of wet season is most evident for wetter sites. This ability of the ecosystem in buffering the interannual variability of rainfall is corroborated by the stability of the centroid location of the growing season compared to the wet season for all sites. The maximal biomass production was observed at intermediate levels of seasonality, suggesting a possible interesting trade-off in the effects of intensity (i.e., amount) and duration of the wet season on vegetation growth.

  10. On extreme rainfall intensity increases with air temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molnar, Peter; Fatichi, Simone; Paschalis, Athanasios; Gaal, Ladislav; Szolgay, Jan; Burlando, Paolo

    2016-04-01

    The water vapour holding capacity of air increases at about 7% per degree C according to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. This is one of the arguments why a warmer future atmosphere, being able to hold more moisture, will generate higher extreme precipitation intensities. However, several empirical studies have recently demonstrated an increase in extreme rain intensities with air temperature above CC rates, in the range 7-14% per degree C worldwide (called super-CC rates). This was observed especially for shorter duration rainfall, i.e. in hourly and finer resolution data (e.g. review in Westra et al., 2014). The super-CC rate was attributed to positive feedbacks between water vapour and the updraft dynamics in convective clouds and lateral supply (convergence) of moisture. In addition, mixing of storm types was shown to be potentially responsible for super-CC rates in empirical studies. Assuming that convective events are accompanied by lightning, we will show on a large rainfall dataset in Switzerland (30 year records of 10-min and 1-hr data from 59 stations) that while the average rate of increase in extreme rainfall intensity (95th percentile) is 6-7% in no-lightning events and 8-9% in lightning events, it is 11-13% per degree C when all events are combined (Molnar et al., 2015). These results are relevant for climate change studies which predict shifts in storm types in a warmer climate in some parts of the world. The observation that extreme rain intensity and air temperature are positively correlated has consequences for the stochastic modelling of rainfall. Most current stochastic models do not explicitly include a direct rain intensity-air temperature dependency beyond applying factors of change predicted by climate models to basic statistics of precipitation. Including this dependency explicitly in stochastic models will allow, for example in the nested modelling approach of Paschalis et al. (2014), the random cascade disaggregation routine to be

  11. Novel SVM-based technique to improve rainfall estimation over the Mediterranean region (north of Algeria) using the multispectral MSG SEVIRI imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sehad, Mounir; Lazri, Mourad; Ameur, Soltane

    2017-03-01

    In this work, a new rainfall estimation technique based on the high spatial and temporal resolution of the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infra Red Imager (SEVIRI) aboard the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) is presented. This work proposes efficient scheme rainfall estimation based on two multiclass support vector machine (SVM) algorithms: SVM_D for daytime and SVM_N for night time rainfall estimations. Both SVM models are trained using relevant rainfall parameters based on optical, microphysical and textural cloud proprieties. The cloud parameters are derived from the Spectral channels of the SEVIRI MSG radiometer. The 3-hourly and daily accumulated rainfall are derived from the 15 min-rainfall estimation given by the SVM classifiers for each MSG observation image pixel. The SVMs were trained with ground meteorological radar precipitation scenes recorded from November 2006 to March 2007 over the north of Algeria located in the Mediterranean region. Further, the SVM_D and SVM_N models were used to estimate 3-hourly and daily rainfall using data set gathered from November 2010 to March 2011 over north Algeria. The results were validated against collocated rainfall observed by rain gauge network. Indeed, the statistical scores given by correlation coefficient, bias, root mean square error and mean absolute error, showed good accuracy of rainfall estimates by the present technique. Moreover, rainfall estimates of our technique were compared with two high accuracy rainfall estimates methods based on MSG SEVIRI imagery namely: random forests (RF) based approach and an artificial neural network (ANN) based technique. The findings of the present technique indicate higher correlation coefficient (3-hourly: 0.78; daily: 0.94), and lower mean absolute error and root mean square error values. The results show that the new technique assign 3-hourly and daily rainfall with good and better accuracy than ANN technique and (RF) model.

  12. A Merging Framework for Rainfall Estimation at High Spatiotemporal Resolution for Distributed Hydrological Modeling in a Data-Scarce Area

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    Yinping Long

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Merging satellite and rain gauge data by combining accurate quantitative rainfall from stations with spatial continuous information from remote sensing observations provides a practical method of estimating rainfall. However, generating high spatiotemporal rainfall fields for catchment-distributed hydrological modeling is a problem when only a sparse rain gauge network and coarse spatial resolution of satellite data are available. The objective of the study is to present a satellite and rain gauge data-merging framework adapting for coarse resolution and data-sparse designs. In the framework, a statistical spatial downscaling method based on the relationships among precipitation, topographical features, and weather conditions was used to downscale the 0.25° daily rainfall field derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA precipitation product version 7. The nonparametric merging technique of double kernel smoothing, adapting for data-sparse design, was combined with the global optimization method of shuffled complex evolution, to merge the downscaled TRMM and gauged rainfall with minimum cross-validation error. An indicator field representing the presence and absence of rainfall was generated using the indicator kriging technique and applied to the previously merged result to consider the spatial intermittency of daily rainfall. The framework was applied to estimate daily precipitation at a 1 km resolution in the Qinghai Lake Basin, a data-scarce area in the northeast of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The final estimates not only captured the spatial pattern of daily and annual precipitation with a relatively small estimation error, but also performed very well in stream flow simulation when applied to force the geomorphology-based hydrological model (GBHM. The proposed framework thus appears feasible for rainfall estimation at high spatiotemporal resolution in data-scarce areas.

  13. Overall decrease in the susceptibility of Mycoplasma bovis to antimicrobials over the past 30 years in France.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gautier-Bouchardon, Anne V; Ferré, Séverine; Le Grand, Dominique; Paoli, Agnès; Gay, Emilie; Poumarat, François

    2014-01-01

    Mycoplasma (M.) bovis is frequently implicated in respiratory diseases of young cattle worldwide. Today, to combat M. bovis in Europe, only antimicrobial therapy is available, but often fails, leading to important economical losses. The antimicrobial susceptibility of M. bovis is not covered by antimicrobial resistance surveillance networks. The objectives of this study were to identify resistances that were acquired over the last 30 years in France and to determine their prevalence within contemporary strains. The minimum inhibition concentration (MIC) values of 12 antimicrobials, considered active on M. bovis, were compared, using an agar dilution method, between 27 and 46 M. bovis isolates respectively obtained in 1978-1979 and in 2010-2012 from 73 distinct respiratory disease outbreaks in young cattle all over France. For eight antimicrobials, resistances were proven to be acquired over the period and expressed by all contemporary strains. The increase of the MIC value that inhibited 50% of the isolates (MIC50) was: i) substantial for tylosin, tilmicosin, tulathromycin and spectinomycin, from 2 to >64, 2 to >128, 16 to 128 and 4 to >64 µg/mL, respectively, ii) moderate for enrofloxacin, danofloxacin, marbofloxacin and oxytetracycline, from 0.25 to 0.5, 0.25 to 0.5, 0.5 to 1, 32 to >32 µg/mL, respectively. No differences were observed for gamithromycin, tildipirosin, florfenicol and valnemulin with MIC50 of 128, 128, 8, <0.03 µg/mL, respectively. If referring to breakpoint MIC values published for respiratory bovine pathogens, all contemporary isolates would be intermediate in vivo for fluoroquinolones and resistant to macrolides, oxytetracycline, spectinomycin and florfenicol.

  14. 30 Years Retrospective Review of Tuberculosis Cases in a Tuberculosis Dispensary in Bursa/Nilufer, Turkey (1985-2014

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    Kayıhan PALA

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate tuberculosis control programmes of patients who applied to the Bursa Nilufer Tuberculosis Dispensary and by investigating the changes in the variables over 3 decades. Method: In this retrospective descriptive study, the records of all tuberculosis cases (1662 people treated in the last 30 years (1985-2014 at the Bursa Nilufer Tuberculosis Dispensary were examined. In the analysis, the chi-square test, the trend chi-square test and Fisher's exact test were used. Results: Males comprised 65.2% of the patients. The ages of the patients ranged from 1 to 87 years, and the mean age was 37.4 (95% CI:36.6-38.2. Among the cases, 86.7% were new and 74.1% were pulmonary tuberculosis. In the last decade, the proportion of women, the education level, the proportion of patients who had received a BCG vaccination and the proportion of active employees among women increased by a statistically significant amount, while the proportion of employees among men decreased. Clinical symptoms, such as weakness, anorexia, weight loss, and cough, decreased to a statistically significant degree. In the last decade, the mortality rate was 3.6%, a statistically significant increase compared with previous decades. Mortality was statistically significant higher among patients who were elderly, male, did not have a BCG scar or had a chronic disease. Conclusion: This study reveals the need for studies that determine the risk factors associated with tuberculosis mortality and examine the effectiveness of tuberculosis control programmes. Direct measures to address mortality risk factors can reduce the number of deaths from tuberculosis.

  15. The distribution and trends of fog and haze in the North China Plain over the past 30 years

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    G. Q. Fu

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Frequent low visibility, haze and fog events were found in the North China Plain (NCP. Data throughout the NCP during the past 30 years were examined to determine the horizontal distribution and decadal trends of low visibility, haze and fog events. The impact of meteorological factors such as wind and RH on those events was investigated. Results reveal distinct distributions of haze and fog days, due to their different formation mechanisms. Low visibility, haze and fog days all display increasing trends of before 1995, a steady stage during 1995–2003 and a drastically drop thereafter. All three events occurred most frequently during the heating season. Benefiting from emission control measures, haze and fog both show decreasing trends in winter during the past 3 decades, while summertime haze displays continuous increasing trends. The distribution of wind speed and wind direction as well as the topography within the NCP has determinative impacts on the distribution of haze and fog. Weakened south-easterly winds in the southern part of the NCP has resulted in high pollutant concentrations and frequent haze events along the foot of the Taihang Mountains. The orographic wind convergence zone in the central band area of the southern NCP is responsible for the frequent fog events in this region. Wind speed has been decreasing throughout the entire southern NCP, resulting in more stable atmospheric conditions and weaker dispersion abilities, calling for harder efforts to control emissions to prevent haze events. Haze events are strongly influenced by the ambient RH. RH values associated with haze days are evidently increasing, suggesting that an increasing fraction of haze events are caused by the hygroscopic growth of aerosols, rather than simply by high aerosol loadings.

  16. Overall decrease in the susceptibility of Mycoplasma bovis to antimicrobials over the past 30 years in France.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne V Gautier-Bouchardon

    Full Text Available Mycoplasma (M. bovis is frequently implicated in respiratory diseases of young cattle worldwide. Today, to combat M. bovis in Europe, only antimicrobial therapy is available, but often fails, leading to important economical losses. The antimicrobial susceptibility of M. bovis is not covered by antimicrobial resistance surveillance networks. The objectives of this study were to identify resistances that were acquired over the last 30 years in France and to determine their prevalence within contemporary strains. The minimum inhibition concentration (MIC values of 12 antimicrobials, considered active on M. bovis, were compared, using an agar dilution method, between 27 and 46 M. bovis isolates respectively obtained in 1978-1979 and in 2010-2012 from 73 distinct respiratory disease outbreaks in young cattle all over France. For eight antimicrobials, resistances were proven to be acquired over the period and expressed by all contemporary strains. The increase of the MIC value that inhibited 50% of the isolates (MIC50 was: i substantial for tylosin, tilmicosin, tulathromycin and spectinomycin, from 2 to >64, 2 to >128, 16 to 128 and 4 to >64 µg/mL, respectively, ii moderate for enrofloxacin, danofloxacin, marbofloxacin and oxytetracycline, from 0.25 to 0.5, 0.25 to 0.5, 0.5 to 1, 32 to >32 µg/mL, respectively. No differences were observed for gamithromycin, tildipirosin, florfenicol and valnemulin with MIC50 of 128, 128, 8, <0.03 µg/mL, respectively. If referring to breakpoint MIC values published for respiratory bovine pathogens, all contemporary isolates would be intermediate in vivo for fluoroquinolones and resistant to macrolides, oxytetracycline, spectinomycin and florfenicol.

  17. The importance of standardized treatment in high-grade osteosarcoma: 30 years of experience from a hospital-based database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aggerholm-Pedersen, Ninna; Maretty-Nielsen, Katja; Keller, Johnny; Baerentzen, Steen; Schrøder, Henrik; Jørgensen, Peter Holmberg; Hansen, Bjarne Hauge; Nielsen, Ole Steen; Safwat, Akmal

    2015-01-01

    Treatment of high-grade osteosarcoma remains a major challenge in orthopedic oncology as no major breakthrough in overall survival has occurred in the past 20 years. Due to the rarity of the disease, comparing the results of a single institution to best standard practice needs the establishment of clinical databases. The aim of this study was to report the cumulative 30-years' experience of a single institution and to assess the incidence, survival and prognostic factors of high-grade osteosarcoma using a recently validated, hospital-based database, representing all citizens living in western Denmark, the Aarhus Sarcoma Registry. Between 1979 and 2008, 169 patients were treated at the Sarcoma Centre of Aarhus University Hospital for high-grade osteosarcoma. The incidence was calculated as a WHO age-standardized incidence per million per year. The endpoint was overall survival, analyzed by the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank. Possible prognostic factors were analyzed by the uni- and multivariate Cox proportional hazard method. The incidence of high-grade osteosarcoma in western Denmark from 1979 to 2008 was 2.7/million inhabitants/year. The five-year overall survival was 42% (95% CI 34; 49) for the whole cohort of patients with high-grade osteosarcoma and 54% (95% CI 43; 64) for patients with localized disease treated with wide excision and chemotherapy. For patients treated with curative intent, no soft tissue extension, treatment with sufficient surgical margin and standard chemotherapy, as well as a high degree of necrosis after chemotherapy were all independent prognostic factors for overall survival. The data from this hospital-based, validated database confirms the relevance of the known prognostic factors of high-grade osteosarcoma and emphasizes the importance of adequate surgical margins and chemotherapy.

  18. Impaired social cognition 30 years after hemispherectomy for intractable epilepsy: the importance of the right hemisphere in complex social functioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fournier, N M; Calverley, K L; Wagner, J P; Poock, J L; Crossley, M

    2008-04-01

    Clinical research with individuals following hemispherectomy typically quantifies the success of surgical outcomes by focusing primarily on the achievement of seizure control and the preservation of general brain functions, such as movement, sensation, language, and memory. In addition to these outcomes, careful study of individuals following hemispherectomy also has the potential to contribute to our understanding of functional brain asymmetries involving other complex cognitive behaviors. In this study, we report preliminary evidence for the lateralization of social perception. We administered a series of neuropsychological tests that were developed to assess emotional recognition and the formation of social inferences and advanced social cognitive judgments, as they occur in everyday situations, to two adult participants who underwent complete anatomic left- or right-sided hemispherectomy. Our results show that despite a 30-year postsurgical period of recovery and consistent and high levels of family support and social engagement, distinct cognitive profiles are still evident between our right- and left-sided participants. In particular, participant S.M., who underwent an anatomic right hemispherectomy, showed the most severe impairments in identifying negative emotional expressions and conversational exchanges involving lies and sarcasm and in "mentalizing" the intent of others. In contrast, participant J.H., who underwent an anatomic left hemispherectomy was highly skilled interpersonally, despite evident language-related limitations, and showed only mild difficulties when asked to identify emotional expressions involving disgust and anger. These results suggest that the right hemisphere plays a particularly important role in social cognitive functioning and reasoning. Further examination of the extent of social perceptual difficulties prior to and following surgical intervention for epilepsy may guide the development of effective social skills training

  19. Is the prevalence of psoriasis increasing? A 30-year follow-up of a population-based cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danielsen, K; Olsen, A O; Wilsgaard, T; Furberg, A-S

    2013-06-01

    There is indication of an increasing prevalence of psoriasis in some western populations. However, the results are not conclusive. To analyse trends in the prevalence of psoriasis over the past 30 years, separating age, birth cohort and time period effects. Five population-based surveys in North Norway, the Tromsø Studies 2-6, collected between 1979 and 2008, were studied. Participants aged 20-79 years with self-reported psoriasis data in at least one of the surveys were included, yielding a total of 69,539 observations from 33,387 unique individuals born between 1915 and 1977. Trends in psoriasis prevalence were examined using cross-sectional, time lag and longitudinal designs of graphical plots. Observed trends were further evaluated in generalized linear-regression models. The self-reported lifetime prevalence of psoriasis increased from 4·8% in 1979-1980 to 11·4% in 2007-2008. Graphical plots showed an increasing prevalence of psoriasis with each consecutive survey in all examined age groups and birth cohorts, leaving time period effects as the explanation for the increase. The odds for psoriasis in the cohort were 2·5 times higher in 2007-2008 than in 1979-1980 (adjusted odds ratio 2·49, 95% confidence interval 2·08-2·99). The prevalence of persons reporting a doctor's diagnosis of psoriasis was 9·9% in the last survey. In subgroups of the study population, psoriasis was associated with higher body mass index, lower physical activity during work and leisure time, lower educational level and smoking. Our findings indicate an increasing prevalence of self-reported psoriasis. This could represent a true increase in prevalence, possibly due to changes in lifestyle and environmental factors, or an increased awareness of the disease. © 2013 The Authors. BJD © 2013 British Association of Dermatologists.

  20. The combined effect of smoking tobacco and drinking alcohol on cause-specific mortality: a 30 year cohort study

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    Watt Graham CM

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Smoking and consuming alcohol are both related to increased mortality risk. Their combined effects on cause-specific mortality were investigated in a prospective cohort study. Methods Participants were 5771 men aged 35-64, recruited during 1970-73 from various workplaces in Scotland. Data were obtained from a questionnaire and a screening examination. Causes of death were all cause, coronary heart disease (CHD, stroke, alcohol-related, respiratory and smoking-related cancer. Participants were divided into nine groups according to their smoking status (never, ex or current and reported weekly drinking (none, 1-14 units and 15 or more. Cox proportional hazards models were used to obtain relative rates of mortality, adjusted for age and other risk factors. Results In 30 years of follow-up, 3083 men (53.4% died. Compared with never smokers who did not drink, men who both smoked and drank 15+ units/week had the highest all-cause mortality (relative rate = 2.71 (95% confidence interval 2.31-3.19. Relative rates for CHD mortality were high for current smokers, with a possible protective effect of some alcohol consumption in never smokers. Stroke mortality increased with both smoking and alcohol consumption. Smoking affected respiratory mortality with little effect of alcohol. Adjusting for a wide range of confounders attenuated the relative rates but the effects of alcohol and smoking still remained. Premature mortality was particularly high in smokers who drank 15 or more units, with a quarter of the men not surviving to age 65. 30% of men with manual occupations both smoked and drank 15+ units/week compared with only 13% with non-manual ones. Conclusions Smoking and drinking 15+ units/week was the riskiest behaviour for all causes of death.

  1. The thermal comfort and its changes in the 31 provincial capital cities of mainland China in the past 30 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chi, Xiaoli; Li, Rui; Cubasch, Ulrich; Cao, Wenting

    2017-04-01

    The thermal comfort and its changes in the 31 provincial capital cities of mainland China in the past 30 years were comprehensively evaluated using the Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) and Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) indicators. The PET and UTCI values were highly correlated with each other and presented similar thermal comfort pattern, although their sensitivities might differ slightly. The results showed that these cities covered, respectively, 4-8 and 6-8 thermal comfort classes of the PET and UTCI scale. On the whole, the annual cumulative number of pleasant days was more than 160 days/year. In terms of seasonal variations in thermal comfort conditions, the 31 provincial capital cities in mainland China can be classified into 5 types, which are, respectively, characterized by pleasant summer and severe cold winter (type-I); pleasant spring, autumn, winter, and severe hot summer (type-II); pleasant spring and autumn, slightly pleasant summer, and cold winter (type-III); pleasant spring and autumn, hot stress summer, and slightly cold winter (type-IV); and pleasant spring, summer, autumn, and cool winter (type-V). Type-II cities are rare winter resorts, while type-I cities are natural summer resorts. Type-V cities are the year round pleasant resorts. In the past three decades, the cities in mainland China had experienced increasing pleasant duration in late winter and early spring and intensifying heat stress in summer. The reduction in annual cumulative number of cold stress days in higher latitude/altitude cities outweighed the increase in duration of heat stress in subtropical cities. These may provide some references for urban planning and administration in mainland China.

  2. Phenolic compositions of 50 and 30 year sequences of Australian red wines: the impact of wine age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McRae, Jacqui M; Dambergs, Robert G; Kassara, Stella; Parker, Mango; Jeffery, David W; Herderich, Markus J; Smith, Paul A

    2012-10-10

    The phenolic composition of red wine impacts upon the color and mouthfeel and thus quality of the wine. Both of these characteristics differ depending on the age of a wine, with the purple of young wines changing to brick red and the puckering or aggressive astringency softening in older wines. This study investigated the color parameters, tannin concentrations and tannin composition of a 50 year series of Cabernet Sauvignon wines from a commercial label as well as 30 year series of Cabernet Sauvignon and Shiraz wines from a separate commercial label to assess the impact of wine age on phenolic composition and concentration. The wine color density in wines of 40 to 50 years old was around 5 AU compared with 16 AU of wine less than 12 months old, which correlated well with the concentration of non-bleachable pigments and pigmented polymers. Conversely, the anthocyanin concentrations in 10 year old wines were substantially lower than that of recently bottled wines (around 100 mg/L compared with 627 mg/L, respectively), adding further evidence that non-bleachable pigments including pigmented polymers play a much larger role in long-term wine color than anthocyanins. No age-related trend was observed for tannin concentration, indicating that the widely noted softer astringency of older red wines cannot necessarily be directly related to lower concentrations of soluble wine tannin and is potentially a consequence of changes in tannin structure. Wine tannins from older wines were generally larger than tannins from younger wines and showed structural changes consistent with oxidation.

  3. Orofacial features of subjects aged 18-30 years in the northern part of Kosovo and Metohija territory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Todić Jelena

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Temporomandibular disorder (TMD is a universal term referred to herein to collectively denote a series of functional disorders of orofacial structures, the temporomandibular joint (TMJ and the masticatory muscles in particular. Objectives: The aim of our study was to determine the prevalence of temporomandibular disorders within the observed sample population of the northern part of Kosovo and Metohija, as well as the frequency of signs and symptoms of this type of disorder. Methods: The study involved a sample of 300 subjects, aged 18-30 years. The sample comprised the target student population attending the University of Pristina, Kosovska Mitrovica. A random sample, intended for sampling without replacement, was drawn from the target population. All subjects underwent the Helkimo clinical dysfunction index analysis. Results of the analysis were quantified and expressed numerically, based on severity, as the Helkimo anamnestic dysfunction index (Ai and the clinical dysfunction index (Di with specific values assigned thereto accordingly. Results: The prevalence of temporomandibular disorders within the observed sample population totaled 50.7% (Di> 0. In the majority of patients a mild form of TMP (67% was reported. Temporomandibular disorders were more common in women than in men, who appear to be three times as likely to develop the respective condition, demonstrating the ratio of 3:1. The most common TMD signs and symptoms implied mandibular kinetics disturbances (46% and TMJ sounds (45%. The prevalence of pain during mandibular movements amounted to 9%, the palpable TMJ sensitivity to 20% and the palpable sensitivity of masticatory muscles 18%. Headache and otalgia were represented with 13%, that is, 3% in the observed sample. Conclusion: Temporomandibular disorder analysis demonstrates high incidence in the population of the northern part of Kosovo and Metohija. These findings indicate the need for an extensive prevention

  4. 30 Year patterns of mortality in Tobago, West Indies, 1976-2005: impact of glucose intolerance and alcohol intake.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariam Molokhia

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: To determine the main predictors of all-cause and cardiovascular (CV mortality in a rural West Indian population in Plymouth, Tobago over 30 years. METHODS: Questionnaire survey for CV risk factors and alcohol consumption patterns administered at baseline in 1976 with 92.5% response rate. 831/832 patients were followed up until 2005 or death. RESULTS: Hypertension (>140/90 mm Hg was prevalent in 48% of men and 44% of women, and 21% of men and 17% of women had diabetes. Evidence showed most predictors for all cause and cardiovascular mortality having the main effects at ages 160/95 mm Hg (HR 1.68, 95% CI 1.09-2.60, diabetes (HR 3.28, 95% CI 1.89-5.69, and BMI (HR 1.04, 95% CI 1.00-1.07. The main predictors of cardiovascular mortality were similar in the fully adjusted model: high sessional alcohol intake (HR 2.47 95% CI 1.10-5.57, severe hypertension (HR 2.78 95% CI 1.56-4.95, diabetes (HR 3.68 95% CI 1.77-7.67 and additionally LVH, (HR 5.54 95% CI 1.38-22.26, however BMI did not show independent effects. For men, high sessional alcohol intake explains 27% of all cause mortality, and 40% of cardiovascular mortality at age <60 yrs. In adults aged <60 years, the attributable risk fraction for IGT/Diabetes and all cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality is 28% in women vs. 11% in men, and 22% in women vs. 6% in men respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In this Afro-Caribbean population we found that a major proportion of deaths are attributable to high sessional alcohol intake (in males, diabetes, and hypertension and these risk factors primarily operate in those below 60 years.

  5. Prevention and treatment of gastrointestinal dysfunction following severe burns:A summary of recent 30-year clinical experience

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Shi-Chu Xiao; Shi-Hui Zhu; Zhao-Fan Xia; Wei Lu; Guang-Qing Wang; Dao-Feng Ben; Guang-Yi Wang; Da-Sheng Cheng

    2008-01-01

    AIM:To sum up the recent 30-year experience in the prevention and treatment of gastrointestinal dysfunction in severe burn patients,and propose practicable guidelines for the prevention and treatment of gastrointestinal (GI) dysfunction.METHODS= From 1980 to 2007,a total of 219 patients with large area and extraordinarily large area burns (LAB) were admitted,who were classified into three stages according the therapeutic protocols used at the time:Stage 1 from 1980 to 1989,stage 2 from 1990 to 1995,and stage 3 from 1996 to 2007.The occurrence and mortality of GI dysfunction in patients of the three stages were calculated and the main causes were analyzed.RESULTS:The occurrence of stress ulcer in patients with LAB was 8.6% in stage 1,which was significantly lower than that in stage 1 (P < 0.05).No massive hemorrhage from severe stress ulcer and enterogenic infections occurred in stages 2 and 3.The occurrence of abdominal distension and stress ulcer and the mortality in stage 3 patients with extraordinarily LAB was 7.1%,21.4% and 28.5%,respectively,which were significantly lower than those in stage 1 patients (P < 0.05 or P < 0.01),and the occurrence of stress ulcer was also significantly lower than that in stage 2 patients (P < 0.05).CONCLUSION:Comprehensive fluid resuscitation,early excision of necrotic tissue,staged food ingestion,and administration of specific nutrients are essential strategies for preventing gastrointestinal complications and lowering mortality in severely burned patients.

  6. Spatial variability and rainfall characteristics of Kerala

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Anu Simon; K Mohankumar

    2004-06-01

    Geographical regions of covariability in precipitation over the Kerala state are exposed using factor analysis. The results suggest that Kerala can be divided into three unique rainfall regions, each region having a similar covariance structure of annual rainfall. Stations north of 10°N (north Kerala) fall into one group and they receive more rainfall than stations south of 10°N (south Kerala). Group I stations receive more than 65% of the annual rainfall during the south-west monsoon period, whereas stations falling in Group II receive 25-30% of annual rainfall during the pre-monsoon and the north-east monsoon periods. The meteorology of Kerala is profoundly influenced by its orographical features, however it is difficult to make out a direct relationship between elevation and rainfall. Local features of the state as reflected in the rainfall distribution are also clearly brought out by the study.

  7. Interannual variability of seasonal rainfall over the Cape south coast of South Africa and synoptic type association

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engelbrecht, Christien J.; Landman, Willem A.

    2016-07-01

    The link between interannual variability of seasonal rainfall over the Cape south coast of South Africa and different synoptic types as well as selected teleconnections is explored. Synoptic circulation over the region is classified into different synoptic types by employing a clustering technique, the self-organizing map (SOM), on daily circulation data for the 33-year period from 1979 to 2011. Daily rainfall data are used to investigate interannual variability of seasonal rainfall within the context of the identified synoptic types. The anomalous frequency of occurrence of the different synoptic types for wet and for dry seasons differs significantly within the SOM space, except for austral spring. The main rainfall-producing synoptic types are to a large extent consistent for wet and dry seasons. The main rainfall-producing synoptic types have a notable larger contribution to seasonal rainfall totals during wet seasons than during dry seasons, consistent with a higher frequency of occurrence of the main rainfall-producing synoptic types during wet seasons compared to dry seasons. Dry seasons are characterized by a smaller contribution to seasonal rainfall totals by all the different synoptic types, but with the largest negative anomalies associated with low frequencies of the main rainfall-producing synoptic types. The frequencies of occurrence of specific configurations of ridging high pressure systems, cut-off lows and tropical-temperate troughs associated with rainfall are positively linked to interannual variability of seasonal rainfall. It is also shown that the distribution of synoptic types within the SOM space is linked to the Southern Annular Mode and El Niño Southern Oscillation, implying some predictability of intraseasonal variability at the seasonal time scale.

  8. Meso-scale distribution of summer monsoon rainfall near the Western Ghats (India)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patwardhan, S. K.; Asnani, G. C.

    2000-04-01

    The spatial distribution of southwest monsoon rainfall is studied over Maharashtra State (India), which includes part of the well-known Western Ghats mountain range, near its western boundary, running almost from north to south, perpendicular to the summer monsoon current in the lower troposphere. Meso-scale analysis of daily rainfall is performed for Maharashtra State, including the Western Ghats, for the two mid-monsoon months of July and August, during the 10-year period of 1971-1980. Strong and weak monsoon days were identified for the 5-year period of 1976-1980. The meso-scale pattern of average daily rainfall is obtained separately for strong and for weak monsoon conditions.All these average patterns show the following features: (i) the rainfall increases rapidly from the Arabian Sea coast close to the line of maximum height of the Western Ghats; (ii) there are two rainfall maxima corresponding to the two mountain peaks parallel to the coast line; (iii) between the two mountain peaks, there is a valley which is narrow at the western end (upwind end), broadening towards the east (on the downwind side). Ground contour height of the valley rises eastwards and ends as a part of the Deccan Plateau east of the Ghats. Here the valley opens out like a funnel with higher mountains flanking its two sides. In the valley, the rainfall increases from the coast up to the line of maximum height of the Ghats, and then decreases eastwards towards the plateau. The rainfall isopleths also take a funnel-shaped configuration. An interesting feature is that near the wider section of the valley funnel, there is a rainfall minimum and then the rainfall increases further eastwards on the downwind side. This feature of rainfall minimum is somewhat similar to the rainfall minimum reported by Asnani and Kinuthia (personal communication); Asnani (Asnani GC. 1993. Tropical Meteorology, Vol. I. Prof. G.C. Asnani: Pune, India; 603) attributed the rainfall minimum to the Bernoulli effect. A

  9. A stochastical event-based continuous time step rainfall generator based on Poisson rectangular pulse and microcanonical random cascade models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pohle, Ina; Niebisch, Michael; Zha, Tingting; Schümberg, Sabine; Müller, Hannes; Maurer, Thomas; Hinz, Christoph

    2017-04-01

    Rainfall variability within a storm is of major importance for fast hydrological processes, e.g. surface runoff, erosion and solute dissipation from surface soils. To investigate and simulate the impacts of within-storm variabilities on these processes, long time series of rainfall with high resolution are required. Yet, observed precipitation records of hourly or higher resolution are in most cases available only for a small number of stations and only for a few years. To obtain long time series of alternating rainfall events and interstorm periods while conserving the statistics of observed rainfall events, the Poisson model can be used. Multiplicative microcanonical random cascades have been widely applied to disaggregate rainfall time series from coarse to fine temporal resolution. We present a new coupling approach of the Poisson rectangular pulse model and the multiplicative microcanonical random cascade model that preserves the characteristics of rainfall events as well as inter-storm periods. In the first step, a Poisson rectangular pulse model is applied to generate discrete rainfall events (duration and mean intensity) and inter-storm periods (duration). The rainfall events are subsequently disaggregated to high-resolution time series (user-specified, e.g. 10 min resolution) by a multiplicative microcanonical random cascade model. One of the challenges of coupling these models is to parameterize the cascade model for the event durations generated by the Poisson model. In fact, the cascade model is best suited to downscale rainfall data with constant time step such as daily precipitation data. Without starting from a fixed time step duration (e.g. daily), the disaggregation of events requires some modifications of the multiplicative microcanonical random cascade model proposed by Olsson (1998): Firstly, the parameterization of the cascade model for events of different durations requires continuous functions for the probabilities of the multiplicative

  10. Cancer risk in patients aged 30 years and above with type 2 diabetes receiving antidiabetic monotherapy: a cohort study using metformin as the comparator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen YC

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Yu-Ching Chen,1 Victor C Kok,1,2 Ching-Hsuan Chien,1 Jorng-Tzong Horng,1,3 Jeffrey J P Tsai11Department of Biomedical Informatics, Asia University, Taichung, 2Department of Internal Medicine, Kuang Tien General Hospital, Taichung, 3Department of Computer Science and Information Engineering, National Central University, Jhongli, TaiwanIntroduction: Accumulating evidence suggests that metformin reduces incident cancer development. Few cohort studies have evaluated the risk of subsequent cancer development in diabetic cohorts receiving antidiabetic monotherapy. We conducted a population-based study in patients with new-onset type 2 diabetes treated with antidiabetic monotherapy.Methods: We identified a cohort of patients with type 2 diabetics aged ≥30 years receiving hypoglycemic monotherapy (n=7,325 from the 1998–2007 Longitudinal Health Insurance Dataset. Patients were grouped according to the antidiabetic therapy they received into metformin (n=2,223, sulfonylurea (n=3,965, glitazone (n=53, meglitinide (n=128, acarbose (n=150, and insulin (n=806 groups. Patients with preexisting cancer were excluded. All patients were followed up until cancer development, dropout, death, or until December 31, 2008. Cox’s model was used to estimate multivariable hazard ratios (HRs adjusted for age, sex, Charlson comorbidity index, smoking-related comorbidities, alcohol use disorders, morbid obesity, pancreatitis, hypertension, monthly income, and urbanization level. The log-rank test was used to compare cumulative cancer incidence. Two-sided P-values <0.05 were required to reject the null hypothesis.Results: The overall median follow-up duration was 2.5 years (interquartile range, 3.6 years. Totally, 367 and 124 cancers developed in the sulfonylurea and metformin groups, respectively, representing an adjusted HR of 1.36 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.11–1.67; P<0.005. No significant differences were observed between other groups. Increased adjusted HRs

  11. The Impact of Rainfall on Soil Moisture Dynamics in a Foggy Desert

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Bonan; Wang, Lixin; Kaseke, Kudzai F.; Li, Lin; Seely, Mary K.

    2016-01-01

    Soil moisture is a key variable in dryland ecosystems since it determines the occurrence and duration of vegetation water stress and affects the development of weather patterns including rainfall. However, the lack of ground observations of soil moisture and rainfall dynamics in many drylands has long been a major obstacle in understanding ecohydrological processes in these ecosystems. It is also uncertain to what extent rainfall controls soil moisture dynamics in fog dominated dryland systems. To this end, in this study, twelve to nineteen months’ continuous daily records of rainfall and soil moisture (from January 2014 to August 2015) obtained from three sites (one sand dune site and two gravel plain sites) in the Namib Desert are reported. A process-based model simulating the stochastic soil moisture dynamics in water-limited systems was used to study the relationships between soil moisture and rainfall dynamics. Model sensitivity in response to different soil and vegetation parameters under diverse soil textures was also investigated. Our field observations showed that surface soil moisture dynamics generally follow rainfall patterns at the two gravel plain sites, whereas soil moisture dynamics in the sand dune site did not show a significant relationship with rainfall pattern. The modeling results suggested that most of the soil moisture dynamics can be simulated except the daily fluctuations, which may require a modification of the model structure to include non-rainfall components. Sensitivity analyses suggested that soil hygroscopic point (sh) and field capacity (sfc) were two main parameters controlling soil moisture output, though permanent wilting point (sw) was also very sensitive under the parameter setting of sand dune (Gobabeb) and gravel plain (Kleinberg). Overall, the modeling results were not sensitive to the parameters in non-bounded group (e.g., soil hydraulic conductivity (Ks) and soil porosity (n)). Field observations, stochastic modeling

  12. Generation of future high-resolution rainfall time series with a disaggregation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Hannes; Haberlandt, Uwe

    2017-04-01

    High-resolution rainfall data are needed in many fields of hydrology and water resources management. For analyzes of future rainfall condition climate scenarios exist with hourly values of rainfall. However, the direct usage of these data is associated with uncertainties which can be indicated by comparisons of observations and C20 control runs. An alternative is the derivation of changes of rainfall behavior over the time from climate simulations. Conclusions about future rainfall conditions can be drawn by adding these changes to observed time series. A multiplicative cascade model is used in this investigation for the disaggregation of daily rainfall amounts to hourly values. Model parameters can be estimated by REMO rainfall time series (UBA-, BfG- and ENS-realization), based on ECHAM5. Parameter estimation is carried out for C20 period as well as near term and long term future (2021-2050 and 2071-2100). Change factors for both future periods are derived by parameter comparisons and added to the parameters estimated from observed time series. This enables the generation of hourly rainfall time series from observed daily values with respect to future changes. The investigation is carried out for rain gauges in Lower Saxony. Generated Time series are analyzed regarding statistical characteristics, e.g. extreme values, event-based (wet spell duration and amounts, dry spell duration, …) and continuum characteristics (average intensity, fraction of dry intervals,…). The generation of the time series is validated by comparing the changes in the statistical characteristics from the REMO data and from the disaggregated data.

  13. The relative contribution of synoptic types to rainfall over the Cape south coast region

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Engelbrecht, CJ

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available A synoptic decomposition of rainfall over the Cape south coast region for the period 1979-2011 is presented. This decomposition is achieved by considering the average daily low-level circulation to develop a synoptic climatology, using a Self...

  14. PREVALENCE AND RISK FACTORS OF HYPERTENSION AMONG ADULTS AGED 30 YEARS AND ABOVE IN A RURAL DWELLING OF KOTTAYAM, KERALA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anand

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available : INTRODUCTION: Rising prevalence of hypertension is a major public health challenge in India especially in Kerala. This cross sectional study was done to assess the prevalence of hypertension and its determinants in a rural population of Kottayam, Kerala. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Community based cross sectional study was carried out among 400 adults aged 30 years and above in a randomly selected ward of Ettumanoor panchayath, which is the field practice area of Govt. Medical college, Kottayam. A pretested semi structured questionnaire was used to collect information regarding socio demographic and behavioral factors. Standardized sphygmomanometric blood pressure measurement was taken by trained team members twice for each individual and the average of the two was taken as blood pressure. Anthropometric measurements were also done. A systolic blood pressure of ≥140mm of Hg and or diastolic BP≥90mm of Hg was regarded as hypertension. Data analysis was done using the software Epi-info version 3.4.3. Chi square test revealed the association between hypertension (dependent variable and other socio demographic and behavioural factors (independent variable. A p-value of <0.05 was taken as significant. All the significant variables are included in the binary logistic regression to find out Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR RESULTS: The overall prevalence of hypertension was 35% (males-33.8% females -35.6%. The variables which evolved as significant and remained so in binary logistic regression analysis were single status after marriage/ unmarried (AOR-2.45 95% CI 1.38-4.38, low educational status (AOR- 2.31, 95%CI-1.46-3.64, family history of hypertension (AOR-1.85 95%CI-1.2-2.85 and trunkal obesity in females (AOR-2.41 95%CI-1.37-4.24 CONCLUSION: The present study revealed the prevalence (35% and risk factors for hypertension in the study area. The results of the study can be used to develop messages to make the people aware of the problem of hypertension

  15. Evaluating the demographic buffering hypothesis with vital rates estimated for Weddell seals from 30years of mark-recapture data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rotella, J.J.; Link, W.A.; Chambert, T.; Stauffer, G.E.; Garrott, R.A.

    2012-01-01

    1.Life-history theory predicts that those vital rates that make larger contributions to population growth rate ought to be more strongly buffered against environmental variability than are those that are less important. Despite the importance of the theory for predicting demographic responses to changes in the environment, it is not yet known how pervasive demographic buffering is in animal populations because the validity of most existing studies has been called into question because of methodological deficiencies. 2.We tested for demographic buffering in the southern-most breeding mammal population in the world using data collected from 5558 known-age female Weddell seals over 30years. We first estimated all vital rates simultaneously with mark-recapture analysis and then estimated process variance and covariance in those rates using a hierarchical Bayesian approach. We next calculated the population growth rate's sensitivity to changes in each of the vital rates and tested for evidence of demographic buffering by comparing properly scaled values of sensitivity and process variance in vital rates. 3.We found evidence of positive process covariance between vital rates, which indicates that all vital rates are affected in the same direction by changes in annual environment. Despite the positive correlations, we found strong evidence that demographic buffering occurred through reductions in variation in the vital rates to which population growth rate was most sensitive. Process variation in vital rates was inversely related to sensitivity measures such that variation was greatest in breeding probabilities, intermediate for survival rates of young animals and lowest for survival rates of older animals. 4.Our work contributes to a small but growing set of studies that have used rigorous methods on long-term, detailed data to investigate demographic responses to environmental variation. The information from these studies improves our understanding of life

  16. An Improved Dynamical Downscaling Method with GCM Bias Corrections and Its Validation with 30 Years of Climate Simulations

    KAUST Repository

    Xu, Zhongfeng

    2012-09-01

    An improved dynamical downscaling method (IDD) with general circulation model (GCM) bias corrections is developed and assessed over North America. A set of regional climate simulations is performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) version 3.3 embedded in the National Center for Atmospheric Research\\'s (NCAR\\'s) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). The GCM climatological means and the amplitudes of interannual variations are adjusted based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-NCAR global reanalysis products (NNRP) before using them to drive WRF. In this study, the WRF downscaling experiments are identical except the initial and lateral boundary conditions derived from the NNRP, original GCM output, and bias-corrected GCM output, respectively. The analysis finds that the IDD greatly improves the downscaled climate in both climatological means and extreme events relative to the traditional dynamical downscaling approach (TDD). The errors of downscaled climatological mean air temperature, geopotential height, wind vector, moisture, and precipitation are greatly reduced when the GCM bias corrections are applied. In the meantime, IDD also improves the downscaled extreme events characterized by the reduced errors in 2-yr return levels of surface air temperature and precipitation. In comparison with TDD, IDD is also able to produce a more realistic probability distribution in summer daily maximum temperature over the central U.S.-Canada region as well as in summer and winter daily precipitation over the middle and eastern United States. © 2012 American Meteorological Society.

  17. DailyMed

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — DailyMed provides high quality information about marketed drugs. This information includes FDA labels (package inserts). This Web site provides health information...

  18. Lightship Daily Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Observations taken on board lightships along the United States coasts from 1936 - 1983. Generally 4-6 observations daily. Also includes deck logs, which give...

  19. DailyMed Webservices

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The DailyMed RESTful API is a web service for accessing current SPL information. It is implemented using HTTP and can be thought of as a collection of resources,...

  20. Daily Weather Maps

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Several different government offices have published the Daily weather maps over its history. The publication has also gone by different names over time. The U.S....

  1. Dementia - daily care

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... this page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/patientinstructions/000030.htm Dementia - daily care To use the sharing features on ... prevent choking. Tips for Talking With Someone With Dementia Keep distractions and noise down: Turn off the ...

  2. Satellite derived 30-year trends in terrestrial frozen and non-frozen seasons and associated impacts to vegetation and atmospheric CO2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Y.; Kimball, J. S.; McDonald, K. C.; Glassy, J. M.

    2010-12-01

    Approximately 66 million km2 (52.5 %) of the global vegetated land area experiences seasonally frozen temperatures as a major constraint to ecosystem processes. The freeze-thaw (F/T) status of the landscape as derived from satellite microwave remote sensing is closely linked to surface energy budget and hydrological activity, vegetation phenology, terrestrial carbon budgets and land-atmosphere trace gas exchange. We utilized a seasonal threshold algorithm based temporal change classification of 37GHz frequency, vertically polarized brightness temperatures (Tb) from the Nimbus-7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) pathfinder and Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) to classify daily F/T status for all global land areas where seasonal frozen temperatures are a major constraint to ecosystem processes. A temporally consistent, long-term (30 year) daily F/T record was created by pixel-wise correction of the SMMR Tb record based on empirical analyses of overlapping SMMR and SSM/I measurements acquired during 1987. The resulting combined F/T record was validated against in situ temperature measurements from the global weather station network and applied to quantify regional patterns and trends in timing and length of frozen and non-frozen seasons. The F/T results were compared against other surrogate measures of biosphere activity including satellite AVHRR (GIMMS) based vegetation greenness (NDVI) and atmospheric CO2 concentrations over northern (>50N) land areas. The resulting F/T record showed mean annual classification accuracies of 91 (+/-1.0) and 84 (+/- 0.9) percent for PM and AM overpass retrievals relative to in situ weather station records. The F/T record showed significant (P=0.008) long-term trends in non-frozen period (0.207 days/yr) that were largely driven by earlier onset of spring thaw (-0.121 days/yr) and a small, delayed trend the arrival of the frozen period (0.107 days/yr). These results coincide with 0.025 C/yr warming trends in

  3. Assessment of a climate model to reproduce rainfall variability and extremes over Southern Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, C. J. R.; Kniveton, D. R.; Layberry, R.

    2010-01-01

    It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The sub-continent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equip