WorldWideScience

Sample records for 30-year daily rainfall

  1. Preliminary results of a 30-year daily rainfall data base in southern Italy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Federico, Stefano; Avolio, Elenio; Pasqualoni, Loredana;

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents first exploratory results and analyses performed on a 30-year (1978–2007) homogeneous precipitation database that has been created for the Calabria peninsula, southern Italy. The database consists of complete time series of daily values of precipitation from 88 stations distri...

  2. Stochastic Modelling of Daily Rainfall sequences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buishand, T.A.

    1977-01-01

    Rainfall series of different climatic regions were analysed with the aim of generating daily rainfall sequences. A survey of the data is given in I, 1. When analysing daily rainfall sequences one must be aware of the following points:a. Seasonality. Because of seasonal variation of features of the r

  3. Maximum daily rainfall in South Korea

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Saralees Nadarajah; Dongseok Choi

    2007-08-01

    Annual maxima of daily rainfall for the years 1961–2001 are modeled for five locations in South Korea (chosen to give a good geographical representation of the country). The generalized extreme value distribution is fitted to data from each location to describe the extremes of rainfall and to predict its future behavior. We find evidence to suggest that the Gumbel distribution provides the most reasonable model for four of the five locations considered. We explore the possibility of trends in the data but find no evidence suggesting trends. We derive estimates of 10, 50, 100, 1000, 5000, 10,000, 50,000 and 100,000 year return levels for daily rainfall and describe how they vary with the locations. This paper provides the first application of extreme value distributions to rainfall data from South Korea.

  4. Large Salt Dust Storms Follow a 30-Year Rainfall Cycle in the Mar Chiquita Lake (Cordoba, Argentina.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrique H Bucher

    Full Text Available Starting in 2006, a new source of intense salt dust storms developed in Mar Chiquita (Córdoba, Argentina, the largest saline lake in South America. Storms originate from vast mudflats left by a 30-year expansion-retreat cycle of the lake due to changes in the regional rainfall regime. The annual frequency of salt dust storms correlated with the size of the salt mudflats. Events were restricted to the coldest months, and reached up to 800 km from the source. Occurrence of dust storms was associated with specific surface colors and textures easily identifiable in satellite images. High-emission surfaces were characterized by the presence of sodium sulfate hydrous/anhydrous crystals (mirabilite and thenardite, and a superficial and variable water table, which may result in the periodic development of a characteristic "fluffy" surface derived from salt precipitation-dissolution processes. HYSPLIT model simulation estimates a deposition maximum near the sources (of about 2.5 kg/ha/yr, and a decreasing trend from the emission area outwards, except for the relative secondary maximum modeled over the mountain ranges in southern Bolivia and northern Argentina due to an orographic effect. The 2009 total deposition of salt dust generated in Mar Chiquita was estimated at 6.5 million tons.

  5. Large Salt Dust Storms Follow a 30-Year Rainfall Cycle in the Mar Chiquita Lake (Córdoba, Argentina).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bucher, Enrique H; Stein, Ariel F

    2016-01-01

    Starting in 2006, a new source of intense salt dust storms developed in Mar Chiquita (Córdoba, Argentina), the largest saline lake in South America. Storms originate from vast mudflats left by a 30-year expansion-retreat cycle of the lake due to changes in the regional rainfall regime. The annual frequency of salt dust storms correlated with the size of the salt mudflats. Events were restricted to the coldest months, and reached up to 800 km from the source. Occurrence of dust storms was associated with specific surface colors and textures easily identifiable in satellite images. High-emission surfaces were characterized by the presence of sodium sulfate hydrous/anhydrous crystals (mirabilite and thenardite), and a superficial and variable water table, which may result in the periodic development of a characteristic "fluffy" surface derived from salt precipitation-dissolution processes. HYSPLIT model simulation estimates a deposition maximum near the sources (of about 2.5 kg/ha/yr), and a decreasing trend from the emission area outwards, except for the relative secondary maximum modeled over the mountain ranges in southern Bolivia and northern Argentina due to an orographic effect. The 2009 total deposition of salt dust generated in Mar Chiquita was estimated at 6.5 million tons. PMID:27258088

  6. Large Salt Dust Storms Follow a 30-Year Rainfall Cycle in the Mar Chiquita Lake (Córdoba, Argentina)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, Ariel F.

    2016-01-01

    Starting in 2006, a new source of intense salt dust storms developed in Mar Chiquita (Córdoba, Argentina), the largest saline lake in South America. Storms originate from vast mudflats left by a 30-year expansion-retreat cycle of the lake due to changes in the regional rainfall regime. The annual frequency of salt dust storms correlated with the size of the salt mudflats. Events were restricted to the coldest months, and reached up to 800 km from the source. Occurrence of dust storms was associated with specific surface colors and textures easily identifiable in satellite images. High-emission surfaces were characterized by the presence of sodium sulfate hydrous/anhydrous crystals (mirabilite and thenardite), and a superficial and variable water table, which may result in the periodic development of a characteristic “fluffy” surface derived from salt precipitation-dissolution processes. HYSPLIT model simulation estimates a deposition maximum near the sources (of about 2.5 kg/ha/yr), and a decreasing trend from the emission area outwards, except for the relative secondary maximum modeled over the mountain ranges in southern Bolivia and northern Argentina due to an orographic effect. The 2009 total deposition of salt dust generated in Mar Chiquita was estimated at 6.5 million tons. PMID:27258088

  7. A nested multisite daily rainfall stochastic generation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srikanthan, Ratnasingham; Pegram, Geoffrey G. S.

    2009-06-01

    SummaryThis paper describes a nested multisite daily rainfall generation model which preserves the statistics at daily, monthly and annual levels of aggregation. A multisite two-part daily model is nested in multisite monthly, then annual models. A multivariate set of fourth order Markov chains is used to model the daily occurrence of rainfall; the daily spatial correlation in the occurrence process is handled by using suitably correlated uniformly distributed variates via a Normal Scores Transform (NST) obtained from a set of matched multinormal pseudo-random variates, following Wilks [Wilks, D.S., 1998. Multisite generalisation of a daily stochastic precipitation generation model. Journal of Hydrology 210, 178-191]; we call it a hidden covariance model. A spatially correlated two parameter gamma distribution is used to obtain the rainfall depths; these values are also correlated via a specially matched hidden multinormal process. For nesting, the generated daily rainfall sequences at all the sites are aggregated to monthly rainfall values and these values are modified by a set of lag-1 autoregressive multisite monthly rainfall models. The modified monthly rainfall values are aggregated to annual rainfall and these are then modified by a lag-1 autoregressive multisite annual model. This nesting process ensures that the daily, monthly and annual means and covariances are preserved. The model was applied to a region with 30 rainfall sites, one of the five sets reported by Srikanthan [Srikanthan, R., 2005. Stochastic Generation of Daily Rainfall Data at a Number of Sites. Technical Report 05/7, CRC for Catchment Hydrology. Monash University, 66p]. A comparison of the historical and generated statistics shows that the model preserves all the important characteristics of rainfall at the daily, monthly and annual time scales, including the spatial structure. There are some outstanding features that need to be improved: depths of rainfall on isolated wet days and

  8. Models for estimating daily rainfall erosivity in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Yun; Yin, Shui-qing; Liu, Bao-yuan; Nearing, Mark A.; Zhao, Ying

    2016-04-01

    The rainfall erosivity factor (R) represents the multiplication of rainfall energy and maximum 30 min intensity by event (EI30) and year. This rainfall erosivity index is widely used for empirical soil loss prediction. Its calculation, however, requires high temporal resolution rainfall data that are not readily available in many parts of the world. The purpose of this study was to parameterize models suitable for estimating erosivity from daily rainfall data, which are more widely available. One-minute resolution rainfall data recorded in sixteen stations over the eastern water erosion impacted regions of China were analyzed. The R-factor ranged from 781.9 to 8258.5 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 y-1. A total of 5942 erosive events from one-minute resolution rainfall data of ten stations were used to parameterize three models, and 4949 erosive events from the other six stations were used for validation. A threshold of daily rainfall between days classified as erosive and non-erosive was suggested to be 9.7 mm based on these data. Two of the models (I and II) used power law functions that required only daily rainfall totals. Model I used different model coefficients in the cool season (Oct.-Apr.) and warm season (May-Sept.), and Model II was fitted with a sinusoidal curve of seasonal variation. Both Model I and Model II estimated the erosivity index for average annual, yearly, and half-month temporal scales reasonably well, with the symmetric mean absolute percentage error MAPEsym ranging from 10.8% to 32.1%. Model II predicted slightly better than Model I. However, the prediction efficiency for the daily erosivity index was limited, with the symmetric mean absolute percentage error being 68.0% (Model I) and 65.7% (Model II) and Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency being 0.55 (Model I) and 0.57 (Model II). Model III, which used the combination of daily rainfall amount and daily maximum 60-min rainfall, improved predictions significantly, and produced a Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency

  9. Observed daily large-scale rainfall patterns during BOBMEX-1999

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A K Mitra; M Das Gupta; R K Paliwal; S V Singh

    2003-06-01

    A daily rainfall dataset and the corresponding rainfall maps have been produced by objective analysis of rainfall data. The satellite estimate of rainfall and the raingauge values are merged to form the final analysis. Associated with epochs of monsoon these rainfall maps are able to show the rainfall activities over India and the Bay of Bengal region during the BOBMEX period. The intra-seasonal variations of rainfall during BOBMEX are also seen using these data. This dataset over the oceanic region compares well with other available popular datasets like GPCP and CMAP. Over land this dataset brings out the features of monsoon in more detail due to the availability of more local raingauge stations.

  10. Attributes for MRB_E2RF1 Catchments by Major River Basins in the Conterminous United States: 30-Year Average Daily Minimum Temperature, 1971-2000

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This tabular data set represents thecatchment-average for the 30-year (1971-2000) average daily minimum temperature in Celsius multiplied by 100 compiled for every...

  11. Meaningful QQ adjustment of TRMM/GPM daily rainfall estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pegram, Geoff; Bardossy, Andras; Sinclair, Scott

    2016-04-01

    In many parts of the world, particularly in Africa, the daily raingauge networks are sparse. It is therefore sensible to use remote sensing estimates of precipitation to fill the gaps, but readily available products like TRMM and it successor GPM are frequently found to be biased. This presentation describes a method of bias adjustment of TRMM using quantile-quantile (QQ) transforms of the probability distributions of TRMM daily rainfall accumulations over its grid of 0.25 degree pixels/blocks. There are 4 main steps in the procedure. The first is to collect the daily gauge readings in those TRMM pixels containing gauges to obtain useful estimates of spatial rainfall for ground referencing. These estimates need to be adjusted from gauge to areal estimates taking the number of gauges in each pixel into account. We found that the distributions of the areal rainfall estimates are influenced by the number of gauges in each block, so we devised a means of transforming point to areal rainfall meaningfully. The second step is to determine the parameters of the probability distributions of the gauge-based block areal rainfall; we found that the Weibull distribution with 2 parameters is a suitable and useful choice. The pairs of Weibull parameters of rainfall on many blocks are correlated. To enable their interpolation, as an intermediate step, they have to be decorrelated using canonical decomposition. These transformed parameter pairs are then separately interpolated to empty blocks over the region of choice. They are then back-transformed at each TRMM pixel to Weibull parameters to provide gauge referenced daily rainfall distributions. The third step is to determine the Weibull distributions of the TRMM daily rainfall estimates in each block, based on their brief 11-year history. The fourth and last step is to QQ transform the individual daily TRMM rainfall estimates via the interpolated gauge-block rainfall distributions. This procedure achieves the desired corrected

  12. Rainfall Distributions in Sri Lanka in Time and Space: An Analysis Based on Daily Rainfall Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. P. Burt

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Daily rainfall totals are analyzed for the main agro-climatic zones of Sri Lanka for the period 1976–2006. The emphasis is on daily rainfall rather than on longer-period totals, in particular the number of daily falls exceeding given threshold totals. For one station (Mapalana, where a complete daily series is available from 1950, a longer-term perspective on changes over half a century is provided. The focus here is particularly on rainfall in March and April, given the sensitivity of agricultural decisions to early southwest monsoon rainfall at the beginning of the Yala cultivation season but other seasons are also considered, in particular the northeast monsoon. Rainfall across Sri Lanka over three decades is investigated in relation to the main atmospheric drivers known to affect climate in the region: sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, of which the former are shown to be more important. The strong influence of El Niño and La Niña phases on various aspects of the daily rainfall distribution in Sri Lanka is confirmed: positive correlations with Pacific sea-surface temperatures during the north east monsoon and negative correlations at other times. It is emphasized in the discussion that Sri Lanka must be placed in its regional context and it is important to draw on regional-scale research across the Indian subcontinent and the Bay of Bengal.

  13. Neyman-Scott cluster model for daily rainfall processes in lower extremadura (Spain): Rainfall Generating Mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marroquin, A.; Garcia, J. A.; Garrido, J.; Mateos, V. L.

    1995-09-01

    A Neyman-Scott cluster model was fitted to the daily rainfall data recorded at the observatory of Badajoz (southwestern Spain) for the period 1901 1990. The data were previously homogenized. The goodness of the fit that indicated the daily rainfall process follows some Rainfall Generating Mechanism (RGM). Having decided on the criteria that a block of rainfall must fulfill to be considered as a RGM, a method was proposed to classify the days that belong to RGMs according to the 500 hPa and the surface topography. In this method each day is characterized by a string of 22 alphanumeric characters. From the subsequent analysis, the structure of the synoptic patterns associated with each RGM was deduced.

  14. Multi-daily rainfall climatology and change for water resource management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gajic-Capka, M.; Capka, B.

    2009-09-01

    The ongoing study on precipitation regime in the Croatian Drava River basin is intended to be used by decision makers in water and energy resource management. One side aspect of this study is the variability in daily and multi-daily amounts (2- and 5-days), the indices defined by WMO and amended by the end-users, which are critical for applications in assessment and maintenance of flooding. The daily rainfall series are from the period 1961-2000, collected at two rain gauges: Varazdin in the upper part of the Croatian Drava River basin and Osijek in the low one, not far from its mouse into the Danube River. The applied Gamma probability distribution makes it possible to estimate the likelihood of rainfall at different durations within a specific range. The generalized extreme value distribution is employed to compute the design values of annual maximal 1-, 2- and 5-day precipitation amounts with different return periods indicating at precipitation risk. In addition to the extreme precipitation characteristics of the current climate, the evolution of trends in annual maximal 1-, 2- and 5-day rainfall amounts are derived from linear regression during the period 1901-2007 at Osijek and for the both stations since 1951. Statistical significance at the 5% confidence level is established using the Mann-Kendall rank non-parametric test. The coefficients of variation, indicating interannual variability, are then computed for consecutive 30-year moving time windows (1 year step) for each parameter. Trends for 30-year periods with the 10-year step (1901-1930, 1911-1940, ....) were computed to detect the possible changes in variability. At the level of the synoptic measurements, the analysis of weather types related to the extreme rainfall events would be deduced.

  15. Interpolation of daily rainfall using spatiotemporal models and clustering

    KAUST Repository

    Militino, A. F.

    2014-06-11

    Accumulated daily rainfall in non-observed locations on a particular day is frequently required as input to decision-making tools in precision agriculture or for hydrological or meteorological studies. Various solutions and estimation procedures have been proposed in the literature depending on the auxiliary information and the availability of data, but most such solutions are oriented to interpolating spatial data without incorporating temporal dependence. When data are available in space and time, spatiotemporal models usually provide better solutions. Here, we analyse the performance of three spatiotemporal models fitted to the whole sampled set and to clusters within the sampled set. The data consists of daily observations collected from 87 manual rainfall gauges from 1990 to 2010 in Navarre, Spain. The accuracy and precision of the interpolated data are compared with real data from 33 automated rainfall gauges in the same region, but placed in different locations than the manual rainfall gauges. Root mean squared error by months and by year are also provided. To illustrate these models, we also map interpolated daily precipitations and standard errors on a 1km2 grid in the whole region. © 2014 Royal Meteorological Society.

  16. Identification of anomalous motion of thunderstorms using daily rainfall fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    del Moral, Anna; Llasat, Maria Carmen; Rigo, Tomeu

    2016-04-01

    Adverse weather phenomena in Catalonia (NE of the Iberian Peninsula) is commonly associated to heavy rains, large hail, strong winds, and/or tornados, all of them caused by thunderstorms. In most of the cases with adverse weather, thunderstorms vary sharply their trajectories in a concrete moment, changing completely the motion directions that have previously followed. Furthermore, it is possible that a breaking into several cells may be produced, or, in the opposite, it can be observed a joining of different thunderstorms into a bigger system. In order to identify the main features of the developing process of thunderstorms and the anomalous motions that these may follow in some cases, this contribution presents a classification of the events using daily rainfall fields, with the purpose of distinguishing quickly anomalous motion of thunderstorms. The methodology implemented allows classifying the daily rainfall fields in three categories by applying some thresholds related with the daily precipitation accumulated values and their extension: days with "no rain", days with "potentially convective" rain and days with "non-potentially convective" rain. Finally, for those "potentially convective" daily rainfall charts, it also allows a geometrical identification and classification of all the convective structures into "ellipse" and "non-ellipse", obtaining then the structures with "normal" or "anomalous" motion pattern, respectively. The work is focused on the period 2008-2015, and presents some characteristics of the rainfall behaviour in terms of the seasonal distribution of convective rainfall or the geographic variability. It shows that convective structures are mainly found during late spring and summer, even though they can be recorded in any time of the year. Consequently, the maximum number of convective structures with anomalous motion is recorded between July and November. Furthermore, the contribution shows the role of the orography of Catalonia in the

  17. Some considerations of periodicity and persistence in daily rainfalls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kottegoda, N. T.; Natale, L.; Raiteri, E.

    2004-08-01

    In formulating mathematical models for the evaluation of variability in daily rainfalls, periodicity and persistence are two of the main characteristics to consider. We review periodogram analysis ranging from the Whittaker-Robinson technique to the Schuster periodogram and recent practices such as the modified Daniell window and the autoregressive and entropy spectra. We also reconsider models of the Markovian type of dependence and methods of analysis. The objective is to demonstrate useful practical procedures with the aid of relevant graphical displays. Results from periodograms not based on sinusoids are shown to complement the findings from more conventional methods. Periodicity in rainfall is less effective than in other related phenomena but has wide climatic variations. Preference for the familiar two-state first-order Markov model is reconfirmed with a two-harmonic representation of the seasonal variation in the Markov parameters. Rainfall data from Italy and Sri Lanka are used with observations of temperatures and flow for comparison.

  18. Non-stationarity in daily and sub-daily intense rainfall – Part 1: Sydney, Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Jakob

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available This study was driven by a need to clarify how variations in climate might affect intense rainfall and the potential for flooding. Sub-daily durations are of particular interest for urban applications. Worldwide, few such observation-based studies exist, which is mainly due to limitations in data. While there are still large discrepancies between precipitation data sets from observations and models, both show that there is a tendency for moist regions to become wetter and for dry regions to become drier. However, changes in extreme conditions may show the opposite sign to those in average conditions. Where changes in observed intense precipitation have been studied, this has typically been for daily durations or longer.

    The purpose of this two-part study is to examine daily and sub-daily rainfall extremes for evidence of non-stationarity. Here the problem was addressed by supplementing one long record (Part 1 by a set of shorter records for a 30-yr concurrent period (Part 2. Variations in frequency and magnitude of rainfall extremes across durations from 6 min to 72 h were assessed using data from sites in the south-east of Australia. For the analyses presented in this paper, a peaks-over-threshold approach was chosen since it allows investigating changes in frequency as well as magnitude. Non-parametric approaches were used to assess changes in frequency, magnitude, and quantile estimates as well as the statistical significance of changes for one station (Sydney Observatory Hill for the period 1921 to 2005. Deviations from the long-term average vary with season, duration, and threshold. The effects of climate variations are most readily detected for the highest thresholds. Deviations from the long-term average tend to be larger for frequencies than for magnitudes, and changes in frequency and magnitude may have opposite signs.

    Investigations presented in this paper show that variations in frequency and magnitude of events at

  19. Understanding the Rainfall Daily Climatology of Northwestern Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brito-Castillo, L.

    2007-05-01

    Maximum monthly precipitation (MMP) over northwestern Mexico is not concurrent because it occurs in different months from July through September. However, instead of occurring progressively from one month to the next as latitude increases, as it might be logic since rains move progressively from south to north as monsoon develops, MMP occurs in July in latitudes of Jalisco state, then MMP shifts to August more to the north in latitudes of Nayarit state and along the eastern coast of the Gulf of California, then it occurs in July in higher latitudes through the main axis of the Sierra Madre Occidental (SMO), and finally MMP shifts to September to the west in the California Peninsula. The maximum monthly streamflow occurs in a similar pattern as MMP does but one month later. When daily rainfall climatology of the region is calculated, i.e. the long-term mean per day from stations with more than 20 years of data between 1940 and 2004, it is possible to understand why the behavior of MMP occurs in a July-August-July pattern from south to north. Preliminary results indicate that at latitudes of Nayarit state normal frequent storms with abundant rains develop at the end of July and through the August. These rains sum to the rains that move from the south to the north, as monsoon develops increasing the volume of precipitations at those latitudes in August. To the east crossing the SMO through northwestern Zacatecas state maximum volume of precipitations also is observed in August. However, in higher latitudes it is not observed any increment of rains in August and consequently maximum volume of precipitations occurs in July. To understand the dynamics of the rains at the latitudes of Nayarit state it results necessary to investigate the source of these local rains and explain why the increase of precipitations in August is limited at those latitudes.

  20. Gridded daily Indian monsoon rainfall for 14 seasons: Merged TRMM and IMD gauge analyzed values

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Ashis K Mitra; I M Momin; E N Rajagopal; S Basu; M N Rajeevan; T N Krishnamurti

    2013-10-01

    Indian monsoon is an important component of earth’s climate system. Daily rainfall data for longer period is vital to study components and processes related to Indian monsoon. Daily observed gridded rainfall data covering both land and adjoining oceanic regions are required for numerical model validation and model development for monsoon. In this study, a new gridded daily Indian rainfall dataset at 1° × 1° latitude/longitude resolution covering 14 monsoon seasons (1998–2011) are described. This merged satellite gauge rainfall dataset (NMSG) combines TRMM TMPA rainfall estimates with gauge information from IMD gridded data. Compared to TRMM and GPCP daily rainfall data, the current NMSG daily data has more information due to inclusion of local gauge analysed values. In terms of bias and skill scores this dataset is superior to other daily rainfall datasets. In a mean climatological sense and also for anomalous monsoon seasons, this merged satellite gauge data brings out more detailed features of monsoon rainfall. The difference of NMSG and GPCP looks significant. This dataset will be useful to researchers for monsoon intraseasonal studies and monsoon model development research.

  1. Simulation of mosquitoes population dynamic based on rainfall and average daily temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widayani, H.; Seprianus, Nuraini, N.; Arum, J.

    2014-02-01

    This paper proposed rainfall and average daily temperature approximation functions using least square method with trigonometry polynomial. Error value from this method is better than Fast Fourier Transform method. This approximation is used to accommodate climatic factors into deterministic model of mosquitoes population by constructing a carrying capacity function which contains rainfall and average daily temperature functions. We develop a mathematical model for mosquitoes population dynamic which formulated by Yang et al (2010) with dynamic parameter of a daily rainfall as well as temperature on that model. Two fixed points, trivial and non-trivial, are obtained when constant entomological parameters assumed. Basic offspring number, Q0 as mosquitoes reproduction parameter is constructed. Non-trivial fixed point is stable if and only if Q0 > 1. Numerical simulation shown the dynamics of mosquitoes population significantly affected by rainfall and average daily temperature function.

  2. COMBINATION OF ECMWF REANALYZED DAILY RAINFALL AND PENTAD CMAP IN CHINA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    In this study, 16 combinations of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) reanalyzed daily rainfall and the pentad CMAP in China for the period 1980-1993(1 May-31 Dec.) were calculated. Correlation analysis was used to roughly evaluate daily rainfall for the whole of China and a combination of RPC (rotated principal component) and wavelet analyses was applied to data on observed and combined daily rainfall to obtain a detailed evaluation of the quality of these combined datasets in 6 selected major rainfall regions of eastern China. The results showed that except for intraweekly fluctuation, the best combination was roughly similar to or accorded well with observation in the aspects of space variation patterns and long period rainfall fluctuations related to monsoon onset and serious meteorologic disasters, indicating that this combination yielded better values of long term daily mean and standard deviation through the pentad CMAP (CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation), and can also represent rainfall fluctuations through the reanalyzed daily rainfall.

  3. COMBINATION OF ECMWF REANALYZED DAILY RAINFALL AND PENTAD CMAP IN CHINA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    崔茂常; 朱海

    2001-01-01

    In this study, 16 combinations of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) reanalyzed daily rainfall and the pentad CMAP in China for the period 1980- 1993( 1May - 31 Dec. ) were calculated. Correlation analysis was used to roughly evaluate daily rainfall for the whole of China and a combination of RPC (rotated principal component) and wavelet analyses was applied to data on observed and combined daily rainfall to obtain a detailed evaluation of the quality of these combined datasets in 6 selected major rainfall regions of eastern China. The results showed that except for intraweekly fluctuation, the best combination was roughly similar to or accorded well with observation in the aspects of space variation patterns and long period rainfall fluctuations related to monsoon onset and serious meteorologic disasters, indicating that this combination yielded better values of long term daily mean and standard deviation through the pentad CMAP ( CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation), and can also represent rainfall fluctuations through the reanalyzed daily rainfall.

  4. Analysis of daily rainfall processes in lower extremadura (Spain) and homogenization of the data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, J. A.; Marroquin, A.; Garrido, J.; Mateos, V. L.

    1995-03-01

    In this paper we analyze, from the point of view of stochastic processes, daily rainfall data recorded at the Badajoz Observatory (Southwestern Spain) since the beginning of the century. We attempt to identify any periodicities or trends in the daily rainfall occurrences and their dependence structure, and attempt to select the appropriate point stochastic model for the daily rainfall series. Standard regression analysis, graphical methods and the Cramer statistic show a rise in the number of cases of light rain (between 0.1 and 5 mm/d) and a decline in the number of cases of moderate to heavy rain (> 5 mm/d) in the daily rainfall at least at the 5% significance level. That the homogenization process was satisfactory is shown by the mean interarrival time of the homogenized series and the test of the rate of homogenized daily rainfall occurrences. Our analysis also shows that the behavior of the spectra of the homogenized daily rainfall counts is completely different from that of a Poisson process, so that the hypothesis of a non-homogeneous Poisson process is rejected.

  5. Power-law scaling in daily rainfall patterns and consequences in urban stream discharges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jeryang; Krueger, Elisabeth H.; Kim, Dongkyun; Rao, Suresh C.

    2016-04-01

    Poissonian rainfall has been frequently used for modelling stream discharge in a catchment at the daily scale. Generally, it is assumed that the daily rainfall depth is described by memoryless exponential distribution which is transformed to stream discharge, resulting in an analytical pdf for discharge [Gamma distribution]. While it is true that catchment hydrological filtering processes (censored by constant rate ET losses, and first-order recession) increases "memory", reflected in 1/f noise in discharge time series. Here, we show that for urban watersheds in South Korea: (1) the observation of daily rainfall depths follow power-law pdfs, and spectral slopes range between 0.2 ~ 0.4; and (2) the stream discharge pdfs have power-law tails. These observation results suggest that multiple hydro-climatic factors (e.g., non-stationarity of rainfall patterns) and hydrologic filtering (increasing impervious area; more complex urban drainage networks) influence the catchment hydrologic responses. We test the role of such factors using a parsimonious model, using different types of daily rainfall patterns (e.g., power-law distributed rainfall depth with Poisson distribution in its frequency) and urban settings to reproduce patterns similar to those observed in empirical records. Our results indicate that fractality in temporally up-scaled rainfall, and the consequences of large extreme events are preserved as high discharge events in urbanizing catchments. Implications of these results to modeling urban hydrologic responses and impacts on receiving waters are discussed.

  6. Daily rainfall variability over northeastern Argentina in the La Plata River basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García, Norberto O; Pedraza, Raúl A

    2008-12-01

    We did a brief description of the climatic behavior and after this we analyzed the temporal variation in the total number of days a year with rainfall and the number of days a year with rainfall above the 100 mm threshold at the rain gauging stations in northeastern Argentina south of the La Plata River basin. The results show an increase both in the frequency of daily rainfall, especially during the winter season, and the frequency of days with heavy rainfall starting in the early 1970s. The increase in frequency of occurrence is more significant in the case of heavy rainfall. The annual maximum rainfall was calculated for periods of 1, 3, 5, 7, and 10 consecutive days at regional rain gauging stations for the respective historical periods, and the rain intensity-duration-return period curves (IDT) were determined on a frequency analysis. The IDT curves were compared with rainfall intensity-duration data of critical storms occurring in the last decades. We noticed that the rain intensities of critical storms (mostly convective) widely exceeded the intensities given by the 100-year IDT curves, particularly for short durations. The increase in both the frequency of heavy rainfall occurrence and rain intensity from the 1970s onward shows an increase in frequency and intensity of the meso-scale convective systems in the region resulting from climatic change. These systems tend to produce rainfall of very high intensity that is spatially concentrated and which generally produces significant floods in the local rivers.

  7. Comparison of Two Stochastic Daily Rainfall Models and their Ability to Preserve Multi-year Rainfall Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamal Chowdhury, AFM; Lockart, Natalie; Willgoose, Garry; Kuczera, George; Kiem, Anthony; Parana Manage, Nadeeka

    2016-04-01

    Stochastic simulation of rainfall is often required in the simulation of streamflow and reservoir levels for water security assessment. As reservoir water levels generally vary on monthly to multi-year timescales, it is important that these rainfall series accurately simulate the multi-year variability. However, the underestimation of multi-year variability is a well-known issue in daily rainfall simulation. Focusing on this issue, we developed a hierarchical Markov Chain (MC) model in a traditional two-part MC-Gamma Distribution modelling structure, but with a new parameterization technique. We used two parameters of first-order MC process (transition probabilities of wet-to-wet and dry-to-dry days) to simulate the wet and dry days, and two parameters of Gamma distribution (mean and standard deviation of wet day rainfall) to simulate wet day rainfall depths. We found that use of deterministic Gamma parameter values results in underestimation of multi-year variability of rainfall depths. Therefore, we calculated the Gamma parameters for each month of each year from the observed data. Then, for each month, we fitted a multi-variate normal distribution to the calculated Gamma parameter values. In the model, we stochastically sampled these two Gamma parameters from the multi-variate normal distribution for each month of each year and used them to generate rainfall depth in wet days using the Gamma distribution. In another study, Mehrotra and Sharma (2007) proposed a semi-parametric Markov model. They also used a first-order MC process for rainfall occurrence simulation. But, the MC parameters were modified by using an additional factor to incorporate the multi-year variability. Generally, the additional factor is analytically derived from the rainfall over a pre-specified past periods (e.g. last 30, 180, or 360 days). They used a non-parametric kernel density process to simulate the wet day rainfall depths. In this study, we have compared the performance of our

  8. Spatial Interpolation of Daily Rainfall Data for Local Climate Impact Assessment over Greater Sydney Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xihua Yang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents spatial interpolation techniques to produce finer-scale daily rainfall data from regional climate modeling. Four common interpolation techniques (ANUDEM, Spline, IDW, and Kriging were compared and assessed against station rainfall data and modeled rainfall. The performance was assessed by the mean absolute error (MAE, mean relative error (MRE, root mean squared error (RMSE, and the spatial and temporal distributions. The results indicate that Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW method is slightly better than the other three methods and it is also easy to implement in a geographic information system (GIS. The IDW method was then used to produce forty-year (1990–2009 and 2040–2059 time series rainfall data at daily, monthly, and annual time scales at a ground resolution of 100 m for the Greater Sydney Region (GSR. The downscaled daily rainfall data have been further utilized to predict rainfall erosivity and soil erosion risk and their future changes in GSR to support assessments and planning of climate change impact and adaptation in local scale.

  9. EAST ASIA SUMMER MONSOON ONSET DATE CALCULATED FROM OBSERVED, REANALYZED AND COMBINED DAILY RAINFALL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    In this paper, the East Asia summer monsoon onset date lines in East China are calculated by the definition similar to the traditional one, with the ECMWF reanalyzed 850 hPa daily wind and observed, reanalyzed and combined daily rainfall during 1980 ~ 1993. To make the onset date line as close as possible to the previous work, the earliest onset date limits have to be applied for the regions with different latitude and the daily mean datasets have to be smoothed by space before calculation, therefore their space-resolution is reduced to about 3° longitude ×1° latitude. The results show that the multiyear mean summer monsoon onset date lines are quite similar to each other. Compared with the one from the reanalysis, the 14-year average onset date line form combination is obviously improved in the southern Sichuan Basin and the correlation between observed and combined onset date is also slightly higher over the Huaihe valley and Northeast China. Since daily rainfall combination also improved the long term daily mean and standard deviation through the pentad CMAP, if no better daily dataset is available, such a kind of daily rainfall combination can be used to get reasonable result in the Indian monsoon region without sufficient observatories or over the North Pacific without any ground observation at all in future study.

  10. Stochastic bias-correction of daily rainfall scenarios for hydrological applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Portoghese

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The accuracy of rainfall predictions provided by climate models is crucial for the assessment of climate change impacts on hydrological processes. In fact, the presence of bias in downscaled precipitation may produce large bias in the assessment of soil moisture dynamics, river flows and groundwater recharge.

    In this study, a comparison between statistical properties of rainfall observations and model control simulations from a Regional Climate Model (RCM was performed through a robust and meaningful representation of the precipitation process. The output of the adopted RCM was analysed and re-scaled exploiting the structure of a stochastic model of the point rainfall process. In particular, the stochastic model is able to adequately reproduce the rainfall intermittency at the synoptic scale, which is one of the crucial aspects for the Mediterranean environments. Possible alteration in the local rainfall regime was investigated by means of the historical daily time-series from a dense rain-gauge network, which were also used for the analysis of the RCM bias in terms of dry and wet periods and storm intensity. The result is a stochastic scheme for bias-correction at the RCM-cell scale, which produces a realistic representation of the daily rainfall intermittency and precipitation depths, though a residual bias in the storm intensity of longer storm events persists.

  11. Fitting optimum order of Markov chain models for daily rainfall occurrences in Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deni, Sayang Mohd; Jemain, Abdul Aziz; Ibrahim, Kamarulzaman

    2009-06-01

    The analysis of the daily rainfall occurrence behavior is becoming more important, particularly in water-related sectors. Many studies have identified a more comprehensive pattern of the daily rainfall behavior based on the Markov chain models. One of the aims in fitting the Markov chain models of various orders to the daily rainfall occurrence is to determine the optimum order. In this study, the optimum order of the Markov chain models for a 5-day sequence will be examined in each of the 18 rainfall stations in Peninsular Malaysia, which have been selected based on the availability of the data, using the Akaike’s (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC). The identification of the most appropriate order in describing the distribution of the wet (dry) spells for each of the rainfall stations is obtained using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit test. It is found that the optimum order varies according to the levels of threshold used (e.g., either 0.1 or 10.0 mm), the locations of the region and the types of monsoon seasons. At most stations, the Markov chain models of a higher order are found to be optimum for rainfall occurrence during the northeast monsoon season for both levels of threshold. However, it is generally found that regardless of the monsoon seasons, the first-order model is optimum for the northwestern and eastern regions of the peninsula when the level of thresholds of 10.0 mm is considered. The analysis indicates that the first order of the Markov chain model is found to be most appropriate for describing the distribution of wet spells, whereas the higher-order models are found to be adequate for the dry spells in most of the rainfall stations for both threshold levels and monsoon seasons.

  12. Evaluating regional climate models for simulating sub-daily rainfall extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortés-Hernández, Virginia Edith; Zheng, Feifei; Evans, Jason; Lambert, Martin; Sharma, Ashish; Westra, Seth

    2015-11-01

    Sub-daily rainfall extremes are of significant societal interest, with implications for flash flooding and the design of urban stormwater systems. It is increasingly recognised that extreme subdaily rainfall will intensify as a result of global temperature increases, with regional climate models (RCMs) representing one of the principal lines of evidence on the likely magnitude and spatiotemporal characteristics of these changes. To evaluate the ability of RCMs to simulate subdaily extremes, it is common to compare the simulated statistical characteristics of the extreme rainfall events with those from observational records. While such analyses are important, they provide insufficient insight into whether the RCM reproduces the correct underlying physical processes; in other words, whether the model "gets the right answers for the right reasons". This paper develops a range of metrics to assess the performance of RCMs in capturing the physical mechanisms that produce extreme rainfall. These metrics include the diurnal and seasonal cycles, relationship between rainfall intensity and temperature, temporal scaling, and the spatial structure of extreme rainfall events. We evaluate a high resolution RCM—the Weather Research Forecasting model—over the Greater Sydney region, using three alternative parametrization schemes. The model shows consistency with the observations for most of the proposed metrics. Where differences exist, these are dependent on both the rainfall duration and model parameterization strategy. The use of physically meaningful performance metrics not only enhances the confidence in model simulations, but also provides better diagnostic power to assist with future model improvement.

  13. Evaluating regional climate models for simulating sub-daily rainfall extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortés-Hernández, Virginia Edith; Zheng, Feifei; Evans, Jason; Lambert, Martin; Sharma, Ashish; Westra, Seth

    2016-09-01

    Sub-daily rainfall extremes are of significant societal interest, with implications for flash flooding and the design of urban stormwater systems. It is increasingly recognised that extreme subdaily rainfall will intensify as a result of global temperature increases, with regional climate models (RCMs) representing one of the principal lines of evidence on the likely magnitude and spatiotemporal characteristics of these changes. To evaluate the ability of RCMs to simulate subdaily extremes, it is common to compare the simulated statistical characteristics of the extreme rainfall events with those from observational records. While such analyses are important, they provide insufficient insight into whether the RCM reproduces the correct underlying physical processes; in other words, whether the model "gets the right answers for the right reasons". This paper develops a range of metrics to assess the performance of RCMs in capturing the physical mechanisms that produce extreme rainfall. These metrics include the diurnal and seasonal cycles, relationship between rainfall intensity and temperature, temporal scaling, and the spatial structure of extreme rainfall events. We evaluate a high resolution RCM—the Weather Research Forecasting model—over the Greater Sydney region, using three alternative parametrization schemes. The model shows consistency with the observations for most of the proposed metrics. Where differences exist, these are dependent on both the rainfall duration and model parameterization strategy. The use of physically meaningful performance metrics not only enhances the confidence in model simulations, but also provides better diagnostic power to assist with future model improvement.

  14. A flash flood early warning system based on rainfall thresholds and daily soil moisture indexes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brigandì, Giuseppina; Tito Aronica, Giuseppe

    2015-04-01

    Main focus of the paper is to present a flash flood early warning system, developed for Civil Protection Agency for the Sicily Region, for alerting extreme hydrometeorological events by using a methodology based on the combined use of rainfall thresholds and soil moisture indexes. As matter of fact, flash flood warning is a key element to improve the Civil Protection achievements to mitigate damages and safeguard the security of people. It is a rather complicated task, particularly in those catchments with flashy response where even brief anticipations are important and welcomed. In this context, some kind of hydrological precursors can be considered to improve the effectiveness of the emergency actions (i.e. early flood warning). Now, it is well known how soil moisture is an important factor in flood formation, because the runoff generation is strongly influenced by the antecedent soil moisture conditions of the catchment. The basic idea of the work here presented is to use soil moisture indexes derived in a continuous form to define a first alert phase in a flash flood forecasting chain and then define a unique rainfall threshold for a given day for the subsequent alarm phases activation, derived as a function of the soil moisture conditions at the beginning of the day. Daily soil moisture indexes, representative of the moisture condition of the catchment, were derived by using a parsimonious and simply to use approach based on the IHACRES model application in a modified form developed by the authors. It is a simple, spatially-lumped rainfall-streamflow model, based on the SCS-CN method and on the unit hydrograph approach that requires only rainfall, streamflow and air temperature data. It consists of two modules. In the first a non linear loss model, based on the SCS-CN method, was used to transform total rainfall into effective rainfall. In the second, a linear convolution of effective rainfall was performed using a total unit hydrograph with a configuration of

  15. Extreme Rainfall Events Over Southern Africa: Assessment of a Climate Model to Reproduce Daily Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

    2007-12-01

    It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of a state-of-the-art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. Once the model's ability to reproduce extremes has been assessed, idealised regions of SST anomalies are used to force the model, with the overall aim of investigating the ways in which SST anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. In this paper, results from sensitivity testing of the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model's domain size are firstly presented. Then simulations of current climate from the model, operating in both regional and global mode, are compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Thirdly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes will be assessed, again by a comparison with extremes from the MIRA dataset. Finally, the results from the idealised SST experiments are briefly presented, suggesting associations between rainfall extremes and both local and remote SST anomalies.

  16. Comparison of daily percentiles of streamflow and rainfall to investigate stream aquifer connectivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brodie, Ross S.; Hostetler, Stephen; Slatter, Emily

    2008-01-01

    SummaryA frequency analysis approach was used to investigate the hydraulic connectivity between streams and aquifers, by comparing daily percentiles of streamflow and rainfall. Three Australian streams were examined - a dominantly gaining stream (Wilsons River, NSW), a dominantly gaining stream modified by significant water extraction (Ovens River, Victoria) and a dominantly losing stream (Mooki River, NSW). For the gaining stream examples, a lag is observed between the seasonal peak in the low-flow percentile curves and the seasonal peak in the daily rainfall percentile curve. Cross-correlation was used to calculate the time-shift that provides the best fit between the streamflow and rainfall percentile curves. There is a good correlation ( r2 > 0.8) between the reference rainfall percentile curve and the shifted streamflow percentile curves for gaining streams. The lags evident between the rainfall and streamflow percentile curves represent the processes of first replenishing catchment storages (such as soil moisture and groundwater) and subsequent release to the stream. This is largely a function of catchment hydrogeology as well as climate, notably the magnitude and regularity of rainfall events. Catchment size is not a controlling factor. Analysis of these lags provides insights into the dynamics of groundwater recharge, storage and release. Changes in the lag times over the flow percentiles can reflect changes in the dominant catchment storage contributing to streamflow. For the Wilsons River, the contribution from a groundwater system with longer flow paths increases at lower flow percentiles. This can be critical when protecting minimum streamflows, as near-stream groundwater flow may not be the only determining factor. The impact of water extraction can be recognised in this analysis. For the Ovens River, streamflow deficits relative to the rainfall percentile curve correspond to the summer period of high irrigation demand. Such a deficit was also observed

  17. Daily rainfall statistics of TRMM and CMORPH: A case for trans-boundary Gandak River basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Brijesh; Patra, Kanhu Charan; Lakshmi, Venkat

    2016-07-01

    Satellite precipitation products offer an opportunity to evaluate extreme events (flood and drought) for areas where rainfall data are not available or rain gauge stations are sparse. In this study, daily precipitation amount and frequency of TRMM 3B42V.7 and CMORPH products have been validated against daily rain gauge precipitation for the monsoon months (June-September or JJAS) from 2005-2010 in the trans-boundary Gandak River basin. The analysis shows that the both TRMM and CMORPH can detect rain and no-rain events, but they fail to capture the intensity of rainfall. The detection of precipitation amount is strongly dependent on the topography. In the plains areas, TRMM product is capable of capturing high-intensity rain events but in the hilly regions, it underestimates the amount of high-intensity rain events. On the other hand, CMORPH entirely fails to capture the high-intensity rain events but does well with low-intensity rain events in both hilly regions as well as the plain region. The continuous variable verification method shows better agreement of TRMM rainfall products with rain gauge data. TRMM fares better in the prediction of probability of occurrence of high-intensity rainfall events, but it underestimates intensity at high altitudes. This implies that TRMM precipitation estimates can be used for flood-related studies only after bias adjustment for the topography.

  18. Rainfall variability and extremes over southern Africa: Assessment of a climate model to reproduce daily extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, C. J. R.; Kniveton, D. R.; Layberry, R.

    2009-04-01

    It is increasingly accepted that that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of ability of a state of the art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. The ability of a climate model to simulate current climate provides some indication of how much confidence can be applied to its future predictions. In this paper, simulations of current climate from the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model, in both regional and global mode, are firstly compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. This concentrates primarily on the ability of the model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall variability over southern Africa. Secondly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes will

  19. Analysis of the Statistical Behaviour of Daily Maximum and Monthly Rainfall Data at New Delhi During Monsoon Period

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    A statistical analysis of monthly mean and daily maximum rainfall data at New Delhi during the monsoon (June-September) period 1940-1980 is presented. It has been observed that a good correlation exists between the monthly and daily maximum rainfall. A linear regression analysis of the data is found to be significant for all the four months. Some key statistical parameters like the mean values of Coefficient of Variability (CV), Relative Variability (RV) and Percentage Interannual Variability (PIV) have been studied and found to be at variance. However, their corresponding ratios between mean daily maximum and mean monthly rainfall are significantly lower.

  20. Estimation of daily rainfall over Italy by merging multiple microwave-based satellite products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panegrossi, Giulia; Casella, Daniele; Cinzia Marra, Anna; Sano, Paolo; Dietrich, Stefano; Brocca, Luca; Ciabatta, Luca; Massari, Christian

    2016-04-01

    Precipitation retrieval from space has seen great advances thanks to the improving quality of PMW measurements, the refinement of precipitation retrieval techniques, and the increasing number of microwave radiometers on board LEO satellites orbiting around the Earth. With the recent advent of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission the constellation of cross-track and conically scanning microwave radiometers with precipitation-sensing capabilities currently ensures 1- to 3-hourly coverage at mid/high latitudes. Traditionally passive microwave (PMW) retrieval algorithms are based on the principle that surface precipitation can be estimated from the multichannel brightness temperature (TB) measurements because these are affected (in different ways depending on channel frequency, viewing geometry, spatial resolution, and surface background conditions) by the microphysical properties and 3-D distribution of liquid and frozen hydrometeors within the precipitating cloud, and, therefore, can be related to surface precipitation. These approaches can be categorized as top-down approaches and they provide instantaneous precipitation rate estimate at the surface at the time of the satellite observation. Recently a new perspective for surface precipitation estimate has been proposed, the bottom-up approach, based on the principle that the soil moisture can be considered as a "natural raingauge" and can be employed for "measuring" rainfall. The algorithm, called SM2RAIN, allows estimating rainfall directly from soil moisture retrieved from spaceborne sensors (i.e., ASCAT). Several recent studies have demonstrated that the approach is very effective for precipitation estimation from the daily to 5-daily scale, even though not applicable in regions where soil moisture retrieval is not feasible (i.e., highly vegetated areas, frozen surfaces, oceans). This study shows that the precipitation estimates obtained by PMW observations using the two approaches (top-down and

  1. Comparing flow duration curve and rainfall-runoff modelling for predicting daily runoff in ungauged catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yongqiang; Vaze, Jai; Chiew, Francis H. S.; Li, Ming

    2015-06-01

    Predicting daily runoff time series in ungauged catchments is both important and challenging. For the last few decades, the rainfall-runoff (RR) modelling approach has been the method of choice. There have been very few studies reported in literature which attempt to use flow duration curve (FDC) to predict daily runoff time series. This study comprehensively compares the two approaches using an extensive dataset (228 catchments) for a large region of south-eastern Australia and provides guidelines for choosing the suitable method. For each approach we used the nearest neighbour method and two weightings - a 5-donor simple mathematical average (SA) and a 5-donor inverse-distance weighting (5-IDW) - to predict daily runoff time series. The results show that 5-IDW was noticeably better than a single donor to predict daily runoff time series, especially for the FDC approach. The RR modelling approach calibrated against daily runoff outperformed the FDC approach for predicting high flows. The FDC approach was better at predicting medium to low flows in traditional calibration against the Nash-Sutcliffe-Efficiency or Root Mean Square Error, but when calibrated against a low flow objective function, both the FDC and rainfall-runoff models performed equally well in simulating the low flows. These results indicate that both methods can be further improved to simulate daily hydrographs describing the range of flow metrics in ungauged catchments. Further studies should be carried out for improving the accuracy of predicted FDC in ungauged catchments, including improving the FDC model structure and parameter fitting.

  2. Spatial patterns in the oxygen isotope composition of daily rainfall in the British Isles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tyler, Jonathan J.; Jones, Matthew; Arrowsmith, Carol; Allott, Tim; Leng, Melanie J.

    2016-09-01

    Understanding the modern day relationship between climate and the oxygen isotopic composition of precipitation (δ18OP) is crucial for obtaining rigorous palaeoclimate reconstructions from a variety of archives. To date, the majority of empirical studies into the meteorological controls over δ18OP rely upon daily, event scale, or monthly time series from individual locations, resulting in uncertainties concerning the representativeness of statistical models and the mechanisms behind those relationships. Here, we take an alternative approach by analysing daily patterns in δ18OP from multiple stations across the British Isles ( n = 10-70 stations). We use these data to examine the spatial and seasonal heterogeneity of regression statistics between δ18OP and common predictors (temperature, precipitation amount and the North Atlantic Oscillation index; NAO). Temperature and NAO are poor predictors of daily δ18OP in the British Isles, exhibiting weak and/or inconsistent effects both spatially and between seasons. By contrast δ18OP and rainfall amount consistently correlate at most locations, and for all months analysed, with spatial and temporal variability in the regression coefficients. The maps also allow comparison with daily synoptic weather types, and suggest characteristic δ18OP patterns, particularly associated with Cylonic Lamb Weather Types. Mapping daily δ18OP across the British Isles therefore provides a more coherent picture of the patterns in δ18OP, which will ultimately lead to a better understanding of the climatic controls. These observations are another step forward towards developing a more detailed, mechanistic framework for interpreting stable isotopes in rainfall as a palaeoclimate and hydrological tracer.

  3. Downscaling site rainfall from daily to 11.25-minute resolution: event, diurnal, seasonal and decadal controls on downscaling parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    McIntyre, Neil; Shi, Shirley; Onof, Christian

    2016-04-01

    Downscaling site rainfall from daily to sub-daily resolution is often approached using the multiplicative discrete random cascade (MDRC) class of models, with mixed success. Questions in any application - for MDRCs or indeed other classes of downscaling model - is to what extent and in what way are model parameters functions of rainfall event type and/or large scale climate controls for example those linked to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). These questions underlie the applicability of downscaling models for analysing rainfall and hydrological extremes, in particular for synthesising long-term historical or future sub-daily extremes conditional on historic or projected daily data. Coastal Queensland, Australia, is subject to combinations of multiple weather systems, including tropical cyclones, blocking systems, convective storms, frontal systems and ENSO influences. Using 100 years of fine resolution data from two gauges in central Brisbane, microcanonical MDRC models are fitted to data from 1 day to 11.25 minutes in seven cascade levels, each level dividing the time interval and its rainfall volume into two sub-intervals. Each cascade level involves estimating: the probabilities that all the rainfall observed in a time interval is concentrated in only the first of the two sub-intervals and that all the rainfall observed in a time interval is concentrated in only the second of the two sub-intervals; and also two beta distribution parameters that define the probability of a given division of the rainfall into both sub-intervals. These parameters are found to vary systematically with time of day, rainfall volume, event temporal structure, month of year, and ENSO anomaly. Reasonable downscaling performance is achieved (in terms of replicating extreme values of 11.25 minute rainfall given the observed daily data) by including the parameter dependence on the rainfall volume and event structure, although particular applications may justify development of more

  4. Hydrological daily rainfall-runoff simulation with BTOPMC model and comparison with Xin'anjiang model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Hong-jun BAO; Li-li WANG; Zhi-jia LI; Lin-na ZHAO; Guo-ping ZHANG

    2010-01-01

    A grid-based distributed hydrological model, the Block-wise use of TOPMODEL (BTOPMC), which was developed from the original TOPMODEL, was used for hydrological daily rainfall-runoff simulation. In the BTOPMC model, the runoff is explicitly calculated on a cell-by-cell basis, and the Muskingum-Cunge flow concentration method is used. In order to test the model's applicability, the BTOPMC model and the Xin'anjiang model were applied to the simulation of a humid watershed and a semi-humid to semi-arid watershed in China. The model parameters were optimized with the Shuffle Complex Evolution (SCE-UA) method. Results show that both models can effectively simulate the daily hydrograph in humid watersheds, but that the BTOPMC model performs poorly in semi-humid to semi-arid watersheds. The excess-infiltration mechanism should be incorporated into the BTOPMC model to broaden the model's applicability.

  5. Daily rainfall statistics of TRMM and CMORPH: A case for trans-boundary Gandak River basin

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Brijesh Kumar; Kanhu Charan Patra; Venkat Lakshmi

    2016-07-01

    Satellite precipitation products offer an opportunity to evaluate extreme events (flood and drought)for areas where rainfall data are not available or rain gauge stations are sparse. In this study, dailyprecipitation amount and frequency of TRMM 3B42V.7 and CMORPH products have been validatedagainst daily rain gauge precipitation for the monsoon months (June–September or JJAS) from 2005–2010 in the trans-boundary Gandak River basin. The analysis shows that the both TRMM and CMORPHcan detect rain and no-rain events, but they fail to capture the intensity of rainfall.The detection of precipitation amount is strongly dependent on the topography. In the plains areas,TRMM product is capable of capturing high-intensity rain events but in the hilly regions, it underestimatesthe amount of high-intensity rain events. On the other hand, CMORPH entirely fails to capturethe high-intensity rain events but does well with low-intensity rain events in both hilly regions as well asthe plain region. The continuous variable verification method shows better agreement of TRMM rainfallproducts with rain gauge data. TRMM fares better in the prediction of probability of occurrenceof high-intensity rainfall events, but it underestimates intensity at high altitudes. This implies thatTRMM precipitation estimates can be used for flood-related studies only after bias adjustment for thetopography.

  6. Spatial patterns and trends of daily rainfall regime in Peninsular Malaysia during the southwest and northeast monsoons: 1975-2004

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suhaila, Jamaludin; Deni, S. M.; Wan Zin, Wan Zawiah; Jemain, Abdul Aziz

    2010-12-01

    This study focuses on describing the patterns and trends of five selected rainfall indices in Peninsular Malaysia, based on daily rainfall data from 1975 to 2004. Five rainfall indices based on two main seasons, the northeast and southwest monsoons, were analyzed: total rainfall, frequency of wet days, rainfall intensity, frequency of wet days (extreme frequency), and rainfall intensity (extreme intensity) exceeding the long-term mean 95th percentile. The findings indicated that the eastern areas of the Peninsula were strongly influenced by the northeast monsoon, while the southwest monsoon had the greatest impact on the western part of the Peninsula, particularly the northwest. In studying the trends of these rainfall indices, the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was used. The serial correlation and cross-correlation structure of the data were accounted for in determining the significance of the Mann-Kendall test results. It was found that there were differences in trend patterns over the Peninsula during both seasons, with a decrease in total rainfall and a significant decrease in frequency of wet days leading to a significant increase in rainfall intensity over the Peninsula, except in eastern areas, during the southwest monsoon. In contrast, a trend of significantly increasing total rainfall and an increase in frequencies of extreme rainfall events during the northeast monsoon caused a significantly increasing trend in rainfall intensity over the Peninsula to be observed. However, no significant trend was observed with respect to extreme intensity during both monsoons over the Peninsula. The findings of this study suggest that rainfall patterns in Peninsular Malaysia are very much affected by the northeast monsoon, based on the larger magnitude of changes observed in the rainfall indices.

  7. Maximum Daily Rainfall Simulation by using Artificial Neural Network (Case Study: Saravan-Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohsen Armesh

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Increases in greenhouse gases over the last century have caused abnormalities in the general circulation of the atmosphere. These abnormalities lead to changes in severity of climate phenomenon’s in different parts of the globe. This study aimed to simulate the maximum daily rainfall in Saravan using Artificial Neural Network (ANN. To do this, maximum 24-h rainfall of different months was obtained from synoptic station of Saravan and data of climate indicators from 1986 to 2010 obtained from NOAA website. The effective climate indicators were identified using stepwise method. The data were normalized in the range of 0.1 to 0.9 and the data were applied with 80 to 20 combinations for training data and simulation to neural network model. The used networks were back propagation and Radial Basis with Levenberg-Marquardt training algorithm which created by different combinations of inputs, number of hidden layers and the number of neurons. After creation of mass models; it was found that the chosen network model, Radial Basis, has a better function. This model, with 2 hidden layers of 12 neurons, 0.9578 determination coefficients and less error, presented more acceptable performance in the prediction stage. Comparing the results of chosen ANN and regression models showed that ANN model can accurately predict the daily maximum precipitation. It was found, that the monthly precipitation, maximum and minimum monthly relative humidity, tropical pattern of the South Atlantic Index with 7 months delay and nino1+2 Index with 10 months delay play the main role in daily maximum precipitation in Saravan.

  8. Bayesian objective classification of extreme UK daily rainfall for flood risk applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Little

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available In this study we describe an objective classification scheme for extreme UK daily precipitation to be used in flood risk analysis applications. We create a simplified representation of the spatial layout of extreme events based on a new digital archive of UK rainfall. This simplification allows a Bayesian clustering algorithm to compress these representations down to eight prototypical patterns of extreme falls. These patterns are then verified against a five-class, manual, subjective typing scheme, produced independently using known meteorological mechanisms, isohyetal maps and additional descriptive text from the archive. Compared against the manual scheme, the new objective scheme can reproduce the known meteorological conditions, both in terms of spatial layout and seasonal timing, and is shown to be of hydrological relevance when matched to several notable flooding events in the past century. Furthermore, it is computationally simple and straightforward to apply in classifying future extreme rainfall events. We discuss the practical use of this new typing scheme in flood simulations and climate change applications.

  9. Minimizing uncertainty of daily rainfall interpolation over large catchments through realistic sampling of anisotropic correlogram parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gyasi-Agyei, Yeboah

    2016-04-01

    It has been established that daily rainfall gauged network density is not adequate for the level of hydrological modelling required of large catchments involving pollutant and sediment transport, such as the catchments draining the coastal regions of Queensland, Australia, to the sensitive Great Barrier Reef. This paper seeks to establish a link between the spatial structure of radar and gauge rainfall for improved interpolation of the limited gauged data over a grid or functional units of catchments in regions with or without radar records. The study area is within Mt. Stapylton weather radar station range, a 128 km square region for calibration and validation, and the Brisbane river catchment for validation only. Two time periods (2000-01-01 to 2008-12-31 and 2009-01-01 to 2015-06-30) were considered, the later period for calibration when radar records were available and both time periods for validation without regard to radar information. Anisotropic correlograms of both the gauged and radar data were developed and used to establish the linkage required for areas without radar records. The maximum daily temperature significantly influenced the distributional parameters of the linkage. While the gauged, radar and sampled correlogram parameters reproduced the mean estimates similarly using leave-one-out cross-validation of Ordinary Kriging, the gauged parameters overestimated the standard deviation (SD) which reflects uncertainty by over 91% of cases compared with the radar or the sampled parameter sets. However, the distribution of the SD generated by the radar and the sampled correlogram parameters could not be distinguished, with a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test p-value of 0.52. For the validation case with the catchment, the percentage overestimation of SD by the gauged parameter sets decreased to 81.2% and 87.1% for the earlier and later time periods, respectively. It is observed that the extreme wet days' parameters and statistics were fairly widely distributed

  10. A multivariate regional test for trend detection in extreme rainfall: the case of extreme daily rainfall in the French Mediterranean area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujol, N.; Neppel, L.; Sabatier, R.

    2009-09-01

    A multivariate regional test for trend detection in extreme rainfall: the case of extreme daily rainfall in the French Mediterranean area. N. Pujol, L. Neppel, R. Sabatier The effect of human activity on the climate and on the earth global warming is now accepted by all the scientific community. In the context of a global warming one can ask for the consequences on the extreme events: in several regions their frequencies and/or their magnitude are expected to increase in the future. As the global warming starts in the beginning of the XXe century, can we already find some signal of any changes affecting the extreme events in the long series of observations? We try to bring some answer focusing on the extreme daily rainfalls in the French Mediterranean area. A set of 92 series of annual maxima daily rainfall has been sampled during at least 56 years. Those gauges have been gathered in seven homogeneous climatic regions with regard to extreme rainfall. A regional multivariate parametric test of trend detection has been developed, based on recent improvements in trend detection (Renard et al., 2008). The regional consistency is taken into account considering a common climatic trend for all the series of the same homogeneous region. The test consists of the following four steps: i) The marginal distribution of each extreme rainfall series has been modelled with the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution function and the spatial dependence between the time series of a given region has been modelled with copulas function. ii) Two models have been defined: the stationary one (M0) and the non stationary one, where the GEV position parameters are supposed to be time dependant (M1). iii) The maximization of the likelihood function with genetic algorithm has lead to the parameters estimation. iv) The likelihood ratio test has been applied to select the "best" model between M0 and M1. From a theoretical point of view, the present work underlines i) the necessity of

  11. The influence of minimum time between rain events (MTE) on the daily rainfall and EI30 erosivity index relation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayuso-Ruiz, P.; Ayuso-Muñoz, J. L.; Taguas, E. V.; García-Marín, A.

    2010-05-01

    The amount of rain registered between two consecutives dry time intervals can be defined as a downpour or rain event. The length of these dry periods is known as minimum time between events (MTE). This work analyses the influence of the MTE value on the daily rainfall and EI30 erosivity index relationship. Using a potential equation like , the relation between daily EI30 index and daily precipitation, P, was obtained for Malaga. Hourly rainfall data from 1981 to 2007 were used. Rain events of at least 10 mm were identified four each rainy day and several MTE were used (1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 hours). Due to hourly resolution of the data, the EI60 index was then obtained by multiplying the kinetic energy and the maximum hourly rainfall. Ten minutes resolution data were also available in Malaga from 1999 to 2002. Using these records the lineal correlation between EI30 and EI60 indexes was obtained, allowing the conversion of the EI60 indexes previously obtained. The results showed that no significant differences appear when varying the MTE value. The R2 coefficient had values of 0.7192 when working with a 2 hour MTE and 0.7503 for 6 hour MTE. Thus, it can be concluded that the best relation was obtained for the last MTE, though a slightly dependency between daily rainfall and EI30 index was found.

  12. Statistical analysis of yearly series of maximum daily rainfall in Spain. Analisis estadistico de las series anuales de maximas lluvias diarias en Espaa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferrer Polo, J.; Ardiles Lopez, K. L. (CEDEX, Ministerio de Obras Publicas, Transportes y Medio ambiente, Madrid (Spain))

    1994-01-01

    Work on the statistical modelling of maximum daily rainfalls is presented, with a view to estimating the quantiles for different return periods. An index flood approach has been adopted in which the local quantiles are a result of rescaling a regional law using the mean of each series of values, that is utilized as a local scale factor. The annual maximum series have been taken from 1.545 meteorological stations over a 30 year period, and these have been classified into 26 regions defined according to meteorological criteria, the homogeneity of wich has been checked by means of a statistical analysis of the coefficients of variation of the samples,using the. An estimation has been made of the parameters for the following four distribution models: Two Component Extreme Value (TCEV); General Extreme Value (GEV); Log-Pearson III (LP3); and SQRT-Exponential Type Distribution of Maximum. The analysis of the quantiles obtained reveals slight differences in the results thus detracting from the importance of the model selection. The last of the above-mentioned distribution has been finally chosen, on the basis of the following: it is defined with fewer parameters it is the only that was proposed specifically for the analysis of daily rainfall maximums; it yields more conservative results than the traditional Gumbel distribution for the high return periods; and it is capable of providing a good description of the main sampling statistics concerning the right-hand tail of the distribution, a fact that has been checked with Montecarlo's simulation techniques. The choice of a distribution model with only two parameters has led to the selection of the regional coefficient of variation as the only determining parameter for the regional quantiles. This has permitted the elimination of the quantiles discontinuity of the classical regional approach, thus smoothing the values of that coefficient by means of an isoline plan on a national scale.

  13. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Africa Rainfall Climatology Version 2.0 (ARC2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — As of 2012, a new gridded, daily 30 year precipitation estimation dataset centered over Africa at 0.1? spatial resolution has been developed. The Africa Rainfall...

  14. A regressive methodology for estimating missing data in rainfall daily time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barca, E.; Passarella, G.

    2009-04-01

    the multivariate approach. Another approach follows the paradigm of the "multiple imputation" (Rubin, 1987; Rubin, 1988), which consists in using a set of "similar stations" instead than the most similar. This way, a sort of estimation range can be determined allowing the introduction of uncertainty. Finally, time series can be grouped on the basis of monthly rainfall rates defining classes of wetness (i.e.: dry, moderately rainy and rainy), in order to achieve the estimation using homogeneous data subsets. We expect that integrating the methodology with these enhancements will certainly improve its reliability. The methodology was applied to the daily rainfall time series data registered in the Candelaro River Basin (Apulia - South Italy) from 1970 to 2001. REFERENCES D.B., Rubin, 1976. Inference and Missing Data. Biometrika 63 581-592 D.B. Rubin, 1987. Multiple Imputation for Nonresponce in Surveys, New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. D.B. Rubin, 1988. An overview of multiple imputation. In Survey Research Section, pp. 79-84, American Statistical Association, 1988. J.L., Schafer, 1997. Analysis of Incomplete Multivariate Data, Chapman & Hall. J., Scheffer, 2002. Dealing with Missing Data. Res. Lett. Inf. Math. Sci. 3, 153-160. Available online at http://www.massey.ac.nz/~wwiims/research/letters/ H. Theil, 1950. A rank-invariant method of linear and polynomial regression analysis. Indicationes Mathematicae, 12, pp.85-91.

  15. 近30年我国南方区域持续性暴雨过程的分类研究%Classification of Persistent Heavy Rainfall Events over Southern China during Recent 30 Years

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    汪汇洁; 孙建华; 卫捷; 赵思雄

    2014-01-01

    The persistent heavy rainfall events (PHREs) over southern China during 1981−2011 are classified by utilizing the daily precipitation data at 752 stations in China. PHREs in the Yangtze and Huaihe River Valley (YHRV) and PHREs in South China (SC) during 1981–2011 are selected on the basis of the following criteria: More than 10 grids [0.25°(latitude)×0.25°(longitude)] in the area with daily precipitation of more than 50 mm lasting more than five days and rainband coincidence degree greater than 20%. The statistics reveal that 31 PHREs in the YHRV were concentrated between mid-June to mid-July with an average duration of 8.29 days, whereas 34 non-typhoon PHREs in SC were concentrated in June and July with an average duration of 6.24 days. Moreover, the frequency and intensity of these two types changed in decadal growth. PHREs affected by the typhoon systems in the YHRV were concentrated between mid-July and early August. Those occurring in SC were concentrated from July to September, and their frequency and intensity have increased since 2000. Objective pattern correlation statistics are used to classify and discuss the non-typhoon PHREs in detail. PHREs in the YHRV are divided into three types: (A) main rainbelt to the south of the Yangtze River (YR), (B) main rainbelt to the north of the YR, (C) main rainbelt along the YR, and PHREs in SC are classified into two types: (E) main rain belt to the east of the Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau and (F) main rainbelt located over the Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau and Guangxi Province. On the basis of such classification, the mechanisms of PHREs will be discussed in future studies.%利用中国站点日降水资料对1981~2011年我国南方地区区域持续性暴雨(PHREs)进行了分类研究。按照区域内至少连续5 d 或5 d 以上有不小于10个格点[分辨率0.25º(纬度)×0.25º(经度)]出现大于等于50 mm降水且相邻两日雨带重合率不小于20%的标准,采用客观分析的方法

  16. Modeling of daily rainfall sequence and extremes based on a semiparametric Pareto tail approach at multiple locations

    Science.gov (United States)

    So, Byung-Jin; Kwon, Hyun-Han; Kim, Dongkyun; Lee, Seung Oh

    2015-10-01

    A stochastic generation framework for simulation of daily rainfall at multiple sites is presented in this study. The limitations of a Gamma distribution-based Markov chain model for reproducing high-order moments are well-known, and the problems have increased the uncertainties when the models are used in establishing water resource plans. In this regard, this study attempted to develop a semiparametric model based on a piecewise Kernel-Pareto distribution for simulation of daily rainfall in order to further improve the existing model in terms of reproducing extremes, and in addition, the algorithm to reproduce the spatial correlation was combined. The proposed model can essentially be seen as a piecewise distribution approach constructed by parametrically modeling the tails of the distribution using a generalized Pareto and the interior by kernel density estimation methods. As a result, a Kernel-Pareto distribution-based Markov chain model has been shown to perform well at reproducing most statistics, such as mean, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis. The proposed model provided a significantly improved estimate of design rainfalls for all the stations.

  17. ANALYSIS OF THE STATISTICAL BEHAVIOUR OF DAILY MAXIMUM AND MONTHLY AVERAGE RAINFALL ALONG WITH RAINY DAYS VARIATION IN SYLHET, BANGLADESH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. M. J. HASAN

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Climate, one of the major controlling factors for well-being of the inhabitants in the world, has been changing in accordance with the natural forcing and manmade activities. Bangladesh, the most densely populated countries in the world is under threat due to climate change caused by excessive use or abuse of ecology and natural resources. This study checks the rainfall patterns and their associated changes in the north-eastern part of Bangladesh mainly Sylhet city through statistical analysis of daily rainfall data during the period of 1957 - 2006. It has been observed that a good correlation exists between the monthly mean and daily maximum rainfall. A linear regression analysis of the data is found to be significant for all the months. Some key statistical parameters like the mean values of Coefficient of Variability (CV, Relative Variability (RV and Percentage Inter-annual Variability (PIV have been studied and found to be at variance. Monthly, yearly and seasonal variation of rainy days also analysed to check for any significant changes.

  18. Threshold detection for the generalized Pareto distribution: Review of representative methods and application to the NOAA NCDC daily rainfall database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langousis, Andreas; Mamalakis, Antonios; Puliga, Michelangelo; Deidda, Roberto

    2016-04-01

    In extreme excess modeling, one fits a generalized Pareto (GP) distribution to rainfall excesses above a properly selected threshold u. The latter is generally determined using various approaches, such as nonparametric methods that are intended to locate the changing point between extreme and nonextreme regions of the data, graphical methods where one studies the dependence of GP-related metrics on the threshold level u, and Goodness-of-Fit (GoF) metrics that, for a certain level of significance, locate the lowest threshold u that a GP distribution model is applicable. Here we review representative methods for GP threshold detection, discuss fundamental differences in their theoretical bases, and apply them to 1714 overcentennial daily rainfall records from the NOAA-NCDC database. We find that nonparametric methods are generally not reliable, while methods that are based on GP asymptotic properties lead to unrealistically high threshold and shape parameter estimates. The latter is justified by theoretical arguments, and it is especially the case in rainfall applications, where the shape parameter of the GP distribution is low; i.e., on the order of 0.1-0.2. Better performance is demonstrated by graphical methods and GoF metrics that rely on preasymptotic properties of the GP distribution. For daily rainfall, we find that GP threshold estimates range between 2 and 12 mm/d with a mean value of 6.5 mm/d, while the existence of quantization in the empirical records, as well as variations in their size, constitute the two most important factors that may significantly affect the accuracy of the obtained results.

  19. Modelling wet and dry spells for daily rainfall data series: an application to irrigation management in North-West Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferraris, Stefano; Agnese, Carmelo; Baiamonte, Giorgio; Cat Berro, Daniele; Mercalli, Luca

    2016-04-01

    Rainfall time variability is relevant for agricultural production. The daily time scale is often used in modelling crop and soil water balance. In this work a novel statistical analysis of wet and dry spells is presented, together with an application in an Italian area characterised by a relevant climate spatial variability, due to the presence of both high mountains (e.g.: Mont Blanc) and of the Mediterranean Sea. Statistical analysis of the sequences of rainy days, wet spells (WS), and that of no-rainy days, dry spells (DS), could be carried out separately (as widely applied in the past) or jointly, by introducing the inter-arrival time (IT), representing the time elapsed between two subsequent rainy days. Investigating on daily rainfall data series recorded in Sicily, Agnese et al. (2014) found that IT statistics can be described by the 3-parameter Lerch distribution; in turn, WS and DS distributions can be easily derived from IT distribution. Alternatively, the knowledge of both WS and DS distributions allow deriving IT distribution; in this case, WScan be described by the well-accepted geometric distribution, whereas the 2-parameter polylogarithm distribution can be used for DS, as recently suggested (Agnese et al., 2012) in place of the previously used 1-parameter logarithmic distribution (Chatfield, 1966). In this work, by using some daily rainfall data series recorded in Alpine and Sub-Alpine Areas, the equivalence between the above-mentioned approaches is showed. Furthermore, some interesting relationships between respective parameters are also illustrated. A simple soil water model is then used, using this rainfall statistical model, in order to evaluate the irrigation efficiency as a consequence of variations in the timing of surface irrigation, following the approach described in the paper of Canone et al. (2015). Agnese C., Baiamonte G., Cammalleri C., Cat Berro D., Ferraris S., Mercalli L. (2012). "Statistical analysis of inter-arrival times of

  20. Comparative Study of Daily Rainfall Forecasting Models Using Adaptive-Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Sojitra

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The study was carried out to develop rainfall forecasting Models. Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS was used for developing Models rainfall of Udaipur city. Two data sets were prepared using 35 year of weather parameters i.e. wet bulb temperature, mean temperature, relative humidity and evaporation of previous day and previous moving average week were used to prepare case I and case II respectively. Gaussian and Generalized Bell membership functions were used to prepare models. Statistical and hydrologic performance indices of ANFIS (Gaussian, 5 gave better performance among developed four models. The study showed that sensitivity analysis revealed wet bulb temperature is most sensible parameter followed by mean temperature, relative humidity and evaporation.

  1. 30 Years of Archaeological Research

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    China’s archaeology has achieved remarkable outcomes during the 30 years after the carrying out of the reform and opening up policy. In theoretical research, various archaeological theories and genres have been introduced to China, which have influenced the development of the archaeology of China.

  2. 30 Years,Open Wisely

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Ting

    2009-01-01

    @@ Over the 30 years,since the Reform and Opening-up, to the outside world, Chinese foreign trade has inreased from 20.6 billion USD in 1978 to 2.17 trilliion USD in 2007,up by 105 times, with an average annual growth of 17.4%.

  3. A comparative analysis of TRMM-rain gauge data merging techniques at the daily time scale for distributed rainfall-runoff modelling applications

    OpenAIRE

    Nerini, Daniele; Zulkafli, Zed; Wang, Lipen; Onof, Christian; Buytaert, Wouter; Lavado, Waldo; Guyot, Jean-Loup

    2015-01-01

    This study compares two nonparametric rainfall data merging methods—the mean bias correction and double-kernel smoothing—with two geostatistical methods—kriging with external drift and Bayesian combination—for optimizing the hydrometeorological performance of a satellite-based precipitation product over a mesoscale tropical Andean watershed in Peru. The analysis is conducted using 11 years of daily time series from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation An...

  4. A comparative analysis of TRMM-rain gauge data merging techniques at the daily time scale for distributed rainfall-runoff modeling applications

    OpenAIRE

    Nerini, D.; Zulkafli, Z.; Wang, L. P.; Onof, C.; Buytaert, W.; Lavado-Casimiro, W.; Guyot, Jean-Loup

    2015-01-01

    This study compares two nonparametric rainfall data merging methodsthe mean bias correction and double-kernel smoothingwith two geostatistical methodskriging with external drift and Bayesian combinationfor optimizing the hydrometeorological performance of a satellite-based precipitation product over a mesoscale tropical Andean watershed in Peru. The analysis is conducted using 11 years of daily time series from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analys...

  5. Detection and attribution of non-stationarity in intensity and frequency of daily and 4-h extreme rainfall of Hyderabad, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agilan, V.; Umamahesh, N. V.

    2015-11-01

    The high intensity rainfall has a significant contribution in urban area flooding and understanding this high intensity rainfall over urban areas may help us to reduce the damage caused by urban floods. In this study, the changes in Hyderabad city daily and sub-daily (4-h) extreme rainfall are analyzed using various climate change detection indices. Our analysis indicates that there is increasing trend in intensity and frequency of Hyderabad city daily extreme rainfall. In addition, increasing trend in intensity and frequency of monsoon months' (June-August) 1 a.m. to 4 a.m., 5 p.m. to 8 p.m. and 9 p.m. to 12 a.m. and non-monsoon months' 5 p.m. to 8 p.m. extreme rainfall is also observed. Based on recent theoretical development in the Extreme Value Theory (EVT), the changes in extreme rainfall of Hyderabad city are further attributed through modelling the non-stationarity (trend) present in the extreme rainfall intensity and frequency. The extreme rainfall intensity is modelled with peaks-over-threshold (POT) based Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) and frequency is modelled using inhomogeneous Poisson distribution. The trend is incorporated as covariate in the scale parameter (σ) of the GPD and the rate parameter (λ) of the Poisson distribution. In this study, four physical processes, i.e. Urbanization, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, local temperature changes, and global warming are used as covariates. Further, the combinations of these covariates are also considered for modelling the non-stationarity. Based on covariates and their combinations, fifteen non-stationary models and one stationary model are constructed and the best model is chosen based on the corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc) value. The covariate(s) in the best chosen non-stationary statistical model is/are attributed as the most significant physical process/processes which causes non-stationarity in the series. The study results indicate that the non-stationarity in

  6. Evaluation of statistical and rainfall-runoff models for predicting historical daily streamflow time series in the Des Moines and Iowa River watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, William H.; Knight, Rodney R.; Eash, David A.; Kasey J. Hutchinson,; Linhart, S. Mike; Christiansen, Daniel E.; Archfield, Stacey A.; Over, Thomas M.; Kiang, Julie E.

    2015-08-24

    Daily records of streamflow are essential to understanding hydrologic systems and managing the interactions between human and natural systems. Many watersheds and locations lack streamgages to provide accurate and reliable records of daily streamflow. In such ungaged watersheds, statistical tools and rainfall-runoff models are used to estimate daily streamflow. Previous work compared 19 different techniques for predicting daily streamflow records in the southeastern United States. Here, five of the better-performing methods are compared in a different hydroclimatic region of the United States, in Iowa. The methods fall into three classes: (1) drainage-area ratio methods, (2) nonlinear spatial interpolations using flow duration curves, and (3) mechanistic rainfall-runoff models. The first two classes are each applied with nearest-neighbor and map-correlated index streamgages. Using a threefold validation and robust rank-based evaluation, the methods are assessed for overall goodness of fit of the hydrograph of daily streamflow, the ability to reproduce a daily, no-fail storage-yield curve, and the ability to reproduce key streamflow statistics. As in the Southeast study, a nonlinear spatial interpolation of daily streamflow using flow duration curves is found to be a method with the best predictive accuracy. Comparisons with previous work in Iowa show that the accuracy of mechanistic models with at-site calibration is substantially degraded in the ungaged framework.

  7. Chance-constrained overland flow modeling for improving conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations based on scaling representation of sub-daily rainfall variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Han, Jing-Cheng [State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience & Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Huang, Guohe, E-mail: huang@iseis.org [Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Huang, Yuefei [State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience & Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Zhang, Hua [College of Science and Engineering, Texas A& M University — Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi, TX 78412-5797 (United States); Li, Zhong [Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Chen, Qiuwen [Center for Eco-Environmental Research, Nanjing Hydraulics Research Institute, Nanjing 210029 (China)

    2015-08-15

    Lack of hydrologic process representation at the short time-scale would lead to inadequate simulations in distributed hydrological modeling. Especially for complex mountainous watersheds, surface runoff simulations are significantly affected by the overland flow generation, which is closely related to the rainfall characteristics at a sub-time step. In this paper, the sub-daily variability of rainfall intensity was considered using a probability distribution, and a chance-constrained overland flow modeling approach was proposed to capture the generation of overland flow within conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations. The integrated modeling procedures were further demonstrated through a watershed of China Three Gorges Reservoir area, leading to an improved SLURP-TGR hydrologic model based on SLURP. Combined with rainfall thresholds determined to distinguish various magnitudes of daily rainfall totals, three levels of significance were simultaneously employed to examine the hydrologic-response simulation. Results showed that SLURP-TGR could enhance the model performance, and the deviation of runoff simulations was effectively controlled. However, rainfall thresholds were so crucial for reflecting the scaling effect of rainfall intensity that optimal levels of significance and rainfall threshold were 0.05 and 10 mm, respectively. As for the Xiangxi River watershed, the main runoff contribution came from interflow of the fast store. Although slight differences of overland flow simulations between SLURP and SLURP-TGR were derived, SLURP-TGR was found to help improve the simulation of peak flows, and would improve the overall modeling efficiency through adjusting runoff component simulations. Consequently, the developed modeling approach favors efficient representation of hydrological processes and would be expected to have a potential for wide applications. - Highlights: • We develop an improved hydrologic model considering the scaling effect of rainfall. • A

  8. An alternative approach to characterize time series data: Case study on Malaysian rainfall data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Radhakrishnan, P. [Faculty of Information Science and Technology, Multimedia University, Melaka 75450 (Malaysia)] e-mail: radha.krishnan@mmu.edu.my; Dinesh, S. [Faculty of Engineering and Technology, Multimedia University, Melaka 75450 (Malaysia)

    2006-01-01

    This paper focuses on the characterization of time series rainfall data to understand the behavior in the Malaysian rainfall data. An analysis of the rainfall behavior of different time periods is also conducted. The rainfall data is rounded. A bar with a width of 12 pixels is drawn for each day in the data. The length of the bars drawn is equal to the corresponding rainfall value. Each bar is separated by a space of 2 pixels. Bars for data from different year are stored in different rows. Morphological opening is performed on the barcode image obtained, using line kernels of increasing length. Connected component-labeling algorithm is implemented on the resulting images to identify the individual bar codes and to compute the number of bars remaining after the opening process. A daily rainfall record for the duration of 30 years, obtained from the Melaka Meteorological Station, is analyzed. The results provide characterization of behavior in daily rainfall data.

  9. Subseasonal to multidecadal variability of northeast monsoon daily rainfall over Peninsular Malaysia using a hidden Markov model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Wei Lun; Yusof, Fadhilah; Yusop, Zulkifli

    2016-04-01

    This study involves the modelling of a homogeneous hidden Markov model (HMM) on the northeast rainfall monsoon using 40 rainfall stations in Peninsular Malaysia for the period of 1975 to 2008. A six hidden states HMM was selected based on Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and every hidden state has distinct rainfall characteristics. Three of the states were found to correspond by wet conditions; while the remaining three states were found to correspond to dry conditions. The six hidden states were found to correspond with the associated atmospheric composites. The relationships between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Pacific Ocean are found regarding interannual variability. The wet (dry) states were found to be well correlated with a Niño 3.4 index which was used to characterize the intensity of an ENSO event. This model is able to assess the behaviour of the rainfall characteristics with the large scale atmospheric circulation; the monsoon rainfall is well correlated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in Peninsular Malaysia.

  10. McBride's operation for hallux valgus can be used in patients older than 30 years

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gebuhr, Peter Henrik; Soelberg, M; Larsen, T;

    1992-01-01

    . In patients older than 30 years there were significant reductions. In patients younger than 30 years, the reduction was not significant. The rate of problems with daily footwear was reduced from 36 of 46 feet to 13 of 38 feet. The authors noted few problems and a high rate of satisfied patients, despite...

  11. 30 years of squeezed light generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ulrik Lund; Gehring, Tobias; Marquardt, Christoph;

    2016-01-01

    Squeezed light generation has come of age. Significant advances on squeezed light generation have been made over the last 30 years—from the initial, conceptual experiment in 1985 till today’s top-tuned, application-oriented setups. Here we review the main experimental platforms for generating...... quadrature squeezed light that have been investigated in the last 30 years....

  12. Technical development of industry for 30 years

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This book mentions the history for 30 years since 1979 on industrial technology, which records change of system and environment of industrial technology development, like economical and social environment, industrial technology policy, support system on technical development and enterprise institute, assignment for future and product of industrial technology by field such as electric electronic, information and communications, machine material and fiber chemistry, and the way which Korea industrial technology association walked on.

  13. Probability density function (Pdf) of daily rainfall depths by means of superstatistics of hydro-climatic fluctuations for African test cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topa, M. E.; De Paola, F.; Giugni, M.; Kombe, W.; Touré, H.

    2012-04-01

    The dynamic of hydro-climatic processes can fluctuate in a wide range of temporal scales. Such fluctuations are often unpredictable for ecosystems and the adaptation to these represent the great challenge for the survival and the stability of the species. An unsolved issue is how much these fluctuations of climatic variables to different temporal scales can influence the frequency and the intensity of the extreme events, and how much these events can modify the ecosystems life. It is by now widespread that an increment of the frequency and the intensity of the extreme events will represent one of the strongest characteristic of the global climatic change, with the greatest social and biotics implications (Porporato et al 2006). Recent field experiments (Gutshick and BassiriRad, 2003) and numerical analysis (Porporato et al 2004) have shown that the extreme events can generate not negligible consequences on organisms of water-limited ecosystems. Adaptation measures and species and ecosystems answers to the hydro-climatic variations, is therefore srongly interconnected to the probabilistic structure of these fluctuations. Generally the not-linear intermittent dynamic of a state variable z (a rainfall depth or the interarrival time between two storms), at short time scales (for example daily) is described by a probability density function (pdf), p (z|υ), where υ is the parameter of the distribution. If the same parameter υ varies so that the external forcing fluctuates at longer temporal scale, z reaches a new "local" equilibrium. When the temporal scale of the variation of υ is larger than the one of z, the probability distribution of z can be obtained as a overlapping of the temporary equlibria ("Superstatistic" approach), i.e.: p(z) = ∫ p(z|υ)·φ(υ)dυ (1) where p(z|υ) is the conditioned probability of z to υ, while φ(υ) is the pdf of υ (Beck, 2001; Benjamin and Cornell, 1970). The present work, carried out within FP7-ENV-2010 CLUVA (CLimate Change

  14. Solid waste 30-year volume summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Valero, O.J.; Armacost, L.L.; DeForest, T.J.; Templeton, K.J.; Williams, N.C.

    1994-06-01

    A 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site is described in this report. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste that will require treatment, storage, and disposal at Hanford`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during the 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The data used to complete this document were collected from onsite and offsite waste generators who currently, or are planning to, ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site. An analysis of the data suggests that over 300,000 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed at Hanford`s SWOC over the next 30 years. An extensive effort was made this year to collect this information. The 1993 solid waste forecast was used as a starting point, which identified approximately 100,000 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste to be sent to the SWOC. After analyzing the forecast waste volume, it was determined that additional waste was expected from the tank waste remediation system (TWRS), onsite decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) activities, and onsite remedial action (RA) activities. Data presented in this report establish a starting point for solid waste management planning. It is recognized that forecast estimates will vary (typically increasing) as facility planning and missions continue to change and become better defined, but the information presented still provides useful insight into Hanford`s future solid waste management requirements.

  15. 30 Years of HIV/AIDS

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2011-06-02

    Dr. Kevin A. Fenton, Director of CDC's National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention, discusses the 30 year anniversary of the first reported cases of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, or AIDS. Dr. Fenton also reflects on the HIV/AIDS epidemic – past, present, and future.  Created: 6/2/2011 by National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention (NCHHSTP).   Date Released: 6/2/2011.

  16. Generation of Daily Rainfall Scenario Based on Nonstationary Spatial-Temporal Downscaling Techniques with Multimodel Ensemble of Different GCMs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, T. J.; Kwon, H. H.

    2014-12-01

    Recently, extreme weather occurrences associated with climate change are gradually increasing in frequency, causing unprecedented major weather-related disasters. General Circulation Models (GCMs) are the basic tool used for modelling climate. However, the discrepancy between the spatio-temporal scale at which the models deliver output and the scales that are generally required for applied studies has led to the development of various downscaling methods. Stochastic downscaling methods have been used extensively to generate long-term weather sequences from finite observed records. A primary objective of this study is to develop a forecasting scheme which is able to make use of a multimodel ensemble of different GCMs. This study employed a Nonstationary Hidden Markov Chain Model (NHMM) as a main tool for downscaling seasonal ensemble forecasts over 3 month period, providing daily forecasts. In particular, this study uses MMEs from the APEC Climate Center (APCC) as a predictor. Our results showed that the proposed downscaling scheme can provide the skillful forecasts as inputs for hydrologic modeling, which in turn may improve water resources management. An application to the Nakdong watershed in South Korea illustrates how the proposed approach can lead to potentially reliable information for water resources management. Acknowledgement: This research was supported by a grant (13SCIPA01) from Smart Civil Infrastructure Research Program funded by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MOLIT) of Korea government and the Korea Agency for Infrastructure Technology Advancement (KAIA). Keywords: Climate Change, GCM, Hidden Markov Chain Model, Multi-Model Ensemble

  17. Rainfall Erosivity in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Panagos, Panos; Ballabio, Cristiano; Borrelli, Pasquale;

    2015-01-01

    Rainfall is one the main drivers of soil erosion. The erosive force of rainfall is expressed as rainfall erosivity. Rainfall erosivity considers the rainfall amount and intensity, and is most commonly expressed as the Rfactor in the USLE model and its revised version, RUSLE. At national...... and continental levels, the scarce availability of data obliges soil erosion modellers to estimate this factor based on rainfall data with only low temporal resolution (daily, monthly, annual averages). The purpose of this study is to assess rainfall erosivity in Europe in the form of the RUSLE R-factor, based....... Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) has been used to interpolate the R-factor station values to a European rainfall erosivity map at 1 km resolution. The covariates used for the R-factor interpolation were climatic data (total precipitation, seasonal precipitation, precipitation of driest/wettest months...

  18. Validation of a high-resolution precipitation database (CHIRPS) over Cyprus for a 30-year period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katsanos, Dimitrios; Retalis, Adrianos; Michaelides, Silas

    2016-03-01

    A study for a 30-year period (1981-2010) for a new precipitation database is performed over the island of Cyprus. Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) is a more than 30-year quasi-global rainfall dataset, spanning 50°S-50°N (and all longitudes). Starting in 1981 to near-present, CHIRPS incorporates 0.05° resolution satellite imagery with in situ station data to create gridded rainfall time series. In this study, CHIRPS database is firstly compared to other precipitation databases over the Mediterranean basin. In the following, this study focuses over Cyprus, where a dense and reliable network of rain gauges is available. CHIRPS data are compared for the first time with in situ measurements in this area, for the aforementioned 30-year period. Monthly and annual comparisons are presented for each of the 0.05 × 0.05 degree cells overlaying the island of Cyprus. Results showed good correlation between CHIRPS values and recorded precipitation, although an overestimation of the in situ rainfall data has been noted during the last decade.

  19. McBride's operation for hallux valgus can be used in patients older than 30 years

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gebuhr, Peter Henrik; Soelberg, M; Larsen, T;

    1992-01-01

    Over a 10-year period, 46 feet with hallux valgus in 36 patients were treated with the McBride procedure. The median age was 35 years. At follow-up of 2 to 11 years after operation, a reduction in the hallux valgus angles, the intermetatarsal angles and the width of the forefeet was found....... In patients older than 30 years there were significant reductions. In patients younger than 30 years, the reduction was not significant. The rate of problems with daily footwear was reduced from 36 of 46 feet to 13 of 38 feet. The authors noted few problems and a high rate of satisfied patients, despite...... the age. In 37 of 46 feet the overall result was found satisfactory by the patients. The authors find that McBride's operation can be used for hallux valgus, also in patients above 30 years, in spite of the generally accepted restriction to younger individuals....

  20. Trends in global monsoon area and precipitation over the past 30 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Pang-chi; Li, Tim; Wang, Bin

    2011-04-01

    The analysis of the GPCP and CMAP datasets during the past 30 years (1979-2008) indicates that there are consistent increasing trends in both the global monsoon area (GMA) and the global monsoon total precipitation (GMP). This positive monsoon rainfall trend differs from previous studies that assumed a fixed global monsoon domain. Due to the increasing trends in both the GMA and GMP, a global monsoon intensity (GMI) index, which measures the global monsoon precipitation amount per unit area, is introduced. The GMI measures the strength of the global monsoon. Our calculations with both the GPCP and CMAP datasets show a consistent downward trend in the GMI over the past 30 years. This decreasing trend is primarily attributed to a greater percentage increase in the GMA than in the GMP. A further diagnosis reveals that the decrease of the GMI is primarily attributed to the land monsoon in the GPCP, but to the oceanic monsoon in the CMAP.

  1. Over 30 years of successful collaboration between JINR and INFN

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A short account of the successful 30-year long collaboration between the INFN section of Turin and the JINR Laboratory of Nuclear Problems is presented. Results obtained are discussed together with future plans

  2. MARKOV CHAIN MODEL FOR PROBABILITY OF DRY, WET DAYS AND STATISTICAL ANALISIS OF DAILY RAINFALL IN SOME CLIMATIC ZONE OF IRAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. SHAHRAKI

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Water scarcity is a major problem in arid and semi-arid areas. The scarcity of water is further stressed by the growing demand due to increase in population growth in developing countries. Climate change and its outcomes on precipitation and water resources is the other problem in these areas. Several models are widely used for modeling daily precipitation occurrence. In this study, Markov Chain Model has been extensively used to study spell distribution. For this purpose, a day period was considered as the optimum length of time. Given the assumption that the Markov chain model is the right model for daily precipitation occurrence, the choice of Markov model order was examined on a daily basis for 4 synoptic weather stations with different climates in Iran (Gorgan, Khorram Abad, Zahedan, Tabrizduring 1978-2009. Based on probability rules, events possibility of sequential dry and wet days, these data were analyzed by stochastic process and Markov Chain method. Then probability matrix was calculated by maximum likelihood method. The possibility continuing2-5days of dry and wet days were calculated. The results showed that the probability maximum of consecutive dry period and climatic probability of dry days has occurred in Zahedan. The probability of consecutive dry period has fluctuated from 73.3 to 100 percent. Climatic probability of occurrence of dry days would change in the range of 70.96 to 100 percent with the average probability of about 90.45 percent.

  3. Economists Evaluate China’s 30 Year Reform

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李明锋

    2008-01-01

    The Guanghua School of Management at Peking Universityorganized a new forum entitled "30 Years of China’s Reform:A Review and Outlook" several months ago,inviting many economists such as Cheng Siwei,Wu Jinglian,Li Yining,Mao Yushi,Zhang Weiying,Justin Lin,Fan Gang,Zhou Qiren,Qian Yingyi and Chen Zhiwu to conduct in-depth analysis and discussion on the issues of widespread concern about 30 Years of China’s Reform.

  4. UNCORRECTED TETRALOGY OF FALLOT IN A 30 - YEARS OLD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dihingia

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Tetralogy of Fallot is the most common form of cyanotic congenital heart disease. Survival after the age of 12 years without corrective surgery is rare. We present the case of a 30 year - old man with uncorrected tetralogy of Fallot.

  5. Historical Lassa fever reports and 30-year clinical update.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macher, Abe M; Wolfe, Martin S

    2006-05-01

    Five cases of Lassa fever have been imported from West Africa to the United States since 1969. We report symptoms of the patient with the second imported case and the symptoms and long-term follow-up on the patient with the third case. Vertigo in this patient has persisted for 30 years. PMID:16704848

  6. Historical Lassa Fever Reports and 30-year Clinical Update

    OpenAIRE

    Macher, Abe M.; Martin S. Wolfe

    2006-01-01

    Five cases of Lassa fever have been imported from West Africa to the United States since 1969. We report symptoms of the patient with the second imported case and the symptoms and long-term follow-up on the patient with the third case. Vertigo in this patient has persisted for 30 years.

  7. Historical Lassa Fever Reports and 30-year Clinical Update

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfe, Martin S.

    2006-01-01

    Five cases of Lassa fever have been imported from West Africa to the United States since 1969. We report symptoms of the patient with the second imported case and the symptoms and long-term follow-up on the patient with the third case. Vertigo in this patient has persisted for 30 years. PMID:16704848

  8. "JTPE": A 30-Year Retrospective of Published Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhoades, Jesse L.; Woods, Amelia M.; Daum, David N.; Ellison, Douglas; Trendowski, Thomas N.

    2016-01-01

    This case study presents an examination of 30 years of "Journal of Teaching in Physical Education" ("JTPE") research. The purpose of this study was to provide a retrospective view of "JTPE" and its contribution to the field of physical education. In this effort the current study employed citation analysis, co-author…

  9. Spatial and temporal variation of rainfall trends of Sri Lanka

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wickramagamage, P.

    2016-08-01

    This study was based on daily rainfall data of 48 stations distributed over the entire island covering a 30-year period from 1981 to 2010. Data analysis was done to identify the spatial pattern of rainfall trends. The methods employed in data analysis are linear regression and interpolation by Universal Kriging and Radial Basis function. The slope of linear regression curves of 48 stations was used in interpolation. The regression coefficients show spatially and seasonally variable positive and negative trends of annual and seasonal rainfall. About half of the mean annual pentad series show negative trends, while the rest shows positive trends. By contrast, the rainfall trends of the Southwest Monsoon (SWM) season are predominantly negative throughout the country. The first phase of the Northeast Monsoon (NEM1) displays downward trends everywhere, with the exception of the Southeastern coastal area. The strongest negative trends were found in the Northeast and in the Central Highlands. The second phase (NEM2) is mostly positive, except in the Northeast. The Inter-Monsoon (IM) periods have predominantly upward trends almost everywhere, but still the trends in some parts of the Highlands and Northeast are negative. The long-term data at Watawala Nuwara Eliya and Sandringham show a consistent decline in the rainfall over the last 100 years, particularly during the SWM. There seems to be a faster decline in the rainfall in the last 3 decades. These trends are consistent with the observations in India. It is generally accepted that there has been changes in the circulation pattern. Weakening of the SWM circulation parameters caused by global warming appears to be the main causes of recent changes. Effect of the Asian Brown Cloud may also play a role in these changes.

  10. Earth's surface water change over the past 30 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donchyts, Gennadii; Baart, Fedor; Winsemius, Hessel; Gorelick, Noel; Kwadijk, Jaap; van de Giesen, Nick

    2016-09-01

    Earth's surface gained 115,000 km2 of water and 173,000 km2 of land over the past 30 years, including 20,135 km2 of water and 33,700 km2 of land in coastal areas. Here, we analyse the gains and losses through the Deltares Aqua Monitor -- an open tool that detects land and water changes around the globe.

  11. Acta Pharmacologica Sinica:Celebrating 30 years of publishing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jian DING

    2010-01-01

    @@ Acta Pharmacologica Sinica(APS) is now celebrating 30 years of publication.I am happy to summarize what has been accomplished over the past three decades.First I would like to sincerely thank the founding editor-in-chief(1980-2003),Professor Guang-sheng DING.He is well known for his strict-ness,tireless work ethic,and remarkable editing skills.

  12. Clinical Analysis of Lung Cancer Patients Younger Than 30 Years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangjie HOU

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Background and objective It is common recognized that young patients of lung cancer have poor prognosis due to relatively higher malignancy and more invasive growth. In the past most studies on young patients of lung cancer selected patients younger than 40 or 45 years old, and there were few clinical materials for younger patients under 30 years. This study retrospectively described the the disease history, stage, treatment and pathology features of lung cancer patients younger than 30 years and aimed to provide references for these patients. Methods Those patients younger than 30 years, once admitted in the General Hospital of the People's Liberation Army for lung cancer from 1993 to date, were sought in medical record system, and 53 patients were found in total. In this group, there were 34 non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC patients and 19 small cell lung cacer (SCLC patients. The male/female ratio was 1.5:1. In the NSCLC patients, there were 27 adenocarcinomas, 6 squamous carcinomas and 1 adenosquamous carcinoma, with no large cell carcinoma involved. In these patients, 12 patients received operations while 38 patients got chemo- and/or radiotherapy and 3 quited any treatment. Results There was no death in hospital, however, in the 12 patients who got operation, only 8 patients got complete resection while 4 patients got palliative resection. Conclusion Lung cancer patients younger than 30 years had a high fraction of adenocarcinoma and small cell type pathologically and most of them were in late stage when presenting with symptoms in hospital and would have a dismal prognosis. The routine health examination and early diagnosis should be emphasized to improve the prognosis of these patients.

  13. Gastrointestinal bleeding 30 years after a complicated cholecystectomy

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Thorsten; Brechmann; Wolff; Schmiegel; Volkmar; Nicolas; Markus; Reiser

    2010-01-01

    Gastrointestinal bleeding from small-bowel varices is a rare and difficult to treat complication of portal hypertension. We describe the case of a 79-year-old female patient with recurrent severe hemorrhage from smallbowel varices 30 years after a complicated cholecystectomy. When double balloon enteroscopy was unsuccessful to reach the site of bleeding, a rendezvous approach was favored with intraoperative endoscopy. Active bleeding from varices within a biliodigestive anastomosis was found and controlled ...

  14. Regional Frequency Analysis of extreme rainfall events, Tuscany (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caporali, E.; Chiarello, V.; Rossi, G.

    2014-12-01

    The assessment of extreme hydrological events at sites characterized by short time series or where no data record exists has been mainly obtained by regional models. Regional frequency analysis based on the index variable procedure is implemented here to describe the annual maximum of rainfall depth of short durations in Tuscany region. The probability distribution TCEV - Two Component Extreme Value is used in the frame of the procedure for the parameters estimation based on a three levels hierarchical approach. The methodology deal with the delineation of homogeneous regions, the identification of a robust regional frequency distribution and the assessment of the scale factor, i.e. the index rainfall. The data set includes the annual maximum of daily rainfall of 351 gauge stations with at least 30 years of records, in the period 1916 - 2012, and the extreme rainfalls of short duration, 1 hour and 3, 6, 12, 24 hours. Different subdivisions hypotheses have been verified. A four regions subdivision, coincident with four subregions, which takes into account the orography, the geomorphological and climatic peculiarities of the Tuscany region, has been adopted. Particularly, for testing the regional homogeneity, the cumulate frequency distributions of the observed skewness and variation coefficients of the recorded times series, are compared with the theoretical frequency distribution obtained through a Monte Carlo technique. The related L-skewness and L-variation coefficients are also examined. The application of the Student t -test and the Wilcoxon test for the mean, as well as the χ2 was also performed. Further tests of subdivision hypotheses have been made through the application of discordancy D and heterogeneity H tests and the analysis of the observed and the theoretical TCEV model growth curves. For each region the daily rainfall growth curve has been estimated. The growth curves for the hourly duration have been estimated when the daily rainfall growth curve

  15. Exploring changes in rainfall intensity and seasonal variability in the Southeastern U.S.: Stakeholder engagement, observations, and adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel R. Dourte

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The distribution of rainfall has major impacts in agriculture, affecting the soil, hydrology, and plant health in agricultural systems. The goal of this study was to test for recent changes in rainfall intensity and seasonal rainfall variability in the Southeastern U.S. by exploring the data collaboratively with agricultural stakeholders. Daily rainfall records from the Global Historical Climatology Network were used to analyze changes in rain intensity and seasonal rainfall variability. During the last 30 years (1985–2014, there has been a significant change (53% increase in the number of extreme rainfall days (>152.4 mm/day and there have been significant decreases in the number of moderate intensity (12.7–25.4 mm/day and heavy (25.4–76.2 mm/day rainfall days in the Southeastern U.S., when compared to the previous 30-year period (1955–1984. There have also been significant decreases in the return period of months in which greater than half of the monthly total rain occurred in a single day; this is an original, stakeholder-developed rainfall intensity metric. The variability in spring and summer rainfall increased during the last 30 years, but winter and fall showed less variability in seasonal totals in the last 30 years. In agricultural systems, rainfall is one of the leading factors affecting yield variability; so it can be expected that more variable rainfall and more intense rain events could bring new challenges to agricultural production. However, these changes can also present opportunities for producers who are taking measures to adjust management strategies to make their systems more resilient to increased rain intensity and variability.

  16. Relações entre precipitações intensas de diferentes durações para desagregação da chuva diária em Santa Catarina Relationships between intense rainfall of different durations for disaggregation of daily rainfall in Santa Catarina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Álvaro J. Back

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Com este trabalho objetivou-se determinar as relações entre precipitações de diferentes durações para o Estado de Santa Catarina. Foram estabelecidas as séries de máximas anuais de chuva com duração de 5 a 1440 min de treze estações pluviográficas de Santa Catarina. Para cada duração foram estimadas as precipitações máximas com período de retorno de 2 a 100 anos, com base na distribuição de Gumbel-Chow. A relação média entre a chuva de 24 h e a chuva de um dia independe do período de retorno, com média para o estado de 1,17. Ao se analisar o horário da leitura da precipitação diária verificou-se que esta relação varia de 1,12 a 1,20. Em referência à chuva de 1 h em relação à chuva de 24 h observam-se valores significativamente inferiores aos normalmente usados.The aim of this study was to determine the relationships between rainfalls of different durations for the State of Santa Catarina. The series of annual maximum rainfall were defined with a duration of 5 to 1440 min of thirteen precipitation stations in Santa Catarina. For each duration maximum rainfall were estimated with a return period of 2 to 100 years, based on the Gumbel-Chow distribution. The relationship between the average rainfall of 24 h and one day rain does not depend on the return period, with an average of 1.17 for the State. When analyzing the time reading the daily precipitation it was messed that this ratio varies from 1.12 to 1.20. In relation to 1 h of rain over 24 h of rain it was observed values significantly lower than those normally used.

  17. Interactions between libraries and technology over the past 30 years

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Greifeneder, Elke; Seadle, Michael; Lynch, Clifford

    2012-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to look back on the last 30 years of technology development for libraries. Design/methodology/approach – The paper presents an interview that took place at the American Library Association Annual Meeting in Anaheim, California. Findings – The paper reveals...... libraries can help the public. In the early days of the internet libraries played an enormous uncredited role in teaching the adult population about the it. There are some opportunities like that now, and one place where we are starting to see signs of it is digital preservation, not as libraries doing...

  18. Epithelial ovarian carcinoma in women aged below 30 years

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chen Rong; Shen Keng; Wu Ming; Pan Ling-ya; Huang Hui-fang; Yang Jia-xin; Lang Jing-he

    2005-01-01

    Objective: To study the manifestation, pathohistologic type, stage of disease, treatment and outcome of epithelial ovarian carcinoma in women under the age of 30 years.Methods: The 21 cases of epithelial ovarian carcinoma in women aged below 30 years between Jan, 1986 and Mar, 2002 were analyzed retrospectively.Results: The median age at the time of diagnosis was 24 years (range, 16-29 years). All carcinomas occurred after menarche. The most common symptoms were abdominal pain (50%), followed by tympanites (25%) and menstrual disorders (19%). The initial diagnosis was usually made by physical examination, ultrasonography and serum CA125. The mean maximal tumor diameter was 17.6 cm. Ten patients had Stage I disease (5 Ia, 5 Ic), five had Stage Ⅲ disease, and the other six were unknown during staging operation. There were nine mucinous tumors, six serous tumors. Most tumors were well-differentiated and classified as Grade1 in 11 cases, Grade2 in 2 cases, Grade3 in 2 cases, unknown in 6 cases. Optimal and suboptimal cytoreduction was achieved in 14 patients in primary treatment and 5 in recurrent treatment. 8 patients were treated with conservative surgery. 18 patients were treated with chemotherapy and 7 patients had experienced six or more than six courses of chemotherapy. The median follow-up was 50 months (range, 2-192 months). There were 6 deaths, 2 alive with tumor, 11 alive without the disease, 2 losing follow-up. The 3-year survival rate was 89%, and 5-year survival rate was 76%.Conclusion: Young patients with epithelial ovarian carcinoma appeared to have a less aggressive form of the disease and a more favorable prognosis.

  19. Rainfall statistics changes in Sicily

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Arnone

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Changes in rainfall characteristics are one of the most relevant signs of current climate alterations. Many studies have demonstrated an increase in rainfall intensity and a reduction of frequency in several areas of the world, including Mediterranean areas. Rainfall characteristics may be crucial for vegetation patterns formation and evolution in Mediterranean ecosystems, with important implications, for example, in vegetation water stress or coexistence and competition dynamics. At the same time, characteristics of extreme rainfall events are fundamental for the estimation of flood peaks and quantiles that can be used in many hydrological applications, such as design of the most common hydraulic structures, or planning and management of flood-prone areas. In the past, Sicily has been screened for several signals of possible climate change. Annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall data in the entire Sicilian region have been analyzed, showing a global reduction of total annual rainfall. Moreover, annual maximum rainfall series for different durations have been rarely analyzed in order to detect the presence of trends. Results indicated that for short durations, historical series generally exhibit increasing trends, while for longer durations the trends are mainly negative. Starting from these premises, the aim of this study is to investigate and quantify changes in rainfall statistics in Sicily, during the second half of the last century. Time series of about 60 stations over the region have been processed and screened by using the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test. In particular, extreme events have been analyzed using annual maximum rainfall series at 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 h duration, while daily rainfall properties have been analyzed in terms of frequency and intensity, also characterizing seasonal rainfall features. Results of extreme events analysis confirmed an increasing trend for rainfall of short durations, especially for 1 h rainfall

  20. Rainfall statistics changes in Sicily

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Arnone

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Changes in rainfall characteristics are one of the most relevant signs of current climate alterations. Many studies have demonstrated an increase in rainfall intensity and a reduction of frequency in several areas of the world, including Mediterranean areas. Rainfall characteristics may be crucial for vegetation patterns formation and evolution in Mediterranean ecosystems, with important implications, for example, in vegetation water stress or coexistence and competition dynamics. At the same time, characteristics of extreme rainfall events are fundamental for the estimation of flood peaks and quantiles which can be used in many hydrological applications, such as design of the most common hydraulic structures, or planning and management of flood prone areas.

    In the past, Sicily has been screened for several signals of possible climate change. Annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall data in the entire Sicilian region have been analyzed, showing a global reduction of total annual rainfall. Moreover, annual maximum rainfall series for different durations have been rarely analyzed in order to detect the presence of trends. Results indicated that for short durations, historical series generally exhibit increasing trends while for longer durations the trends are mainly negative.

    Starting from these premises, the aim of this study is to investigate and quantify changes in rainfall statistics in Sicily, during the second half of the last century. Time series of about 60 stations over the region have been processed and screened by using the non parametric Mann–Kendall test.

    Particularly, extreme events have been analyzed using annual maximum rainfall series at 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 h duration while daily rainfall properties have been analyzed in term of frequency and intensity, also characterizing seasonal rainfall features. Results of extreme events analysis confirmed an increasing trend for rainfall of short durations

  1. 30 years of experience in safe transportation of nuclear materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In April 2003, Nuclear Fuel Transport Co., Ltd. (NFT) marked the 30th anniversary of its founding. NFT was established in 1973 and in 1978, commenced SF transport to the reprocessing plant in Tokai-mura. And then, after making preparations to transport nuclear materials to the various facilities at the Nuclear Fuel Cycle Center in Rokkasho-mura, NFT successfully started transportation of LLW (low level waste) to Rokksho-mura's LLW disposal center in 1992, domestic land transportation of HLW returned from overseas to the HLW storage center in 1995, domestic land transportation of natural hexafluoride delivered from overseas to the uranium enrichment plant in 1996, and transportation of SF to the reprocessing plant in 2000. NFT has realized an annual SF transportation capacity of 300 MTU and is currently making great company wide efforts to meet the Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant's future SF annual reprocessing capacity of 800MTU. At the end of FY2003, NFT had successfully transported 560 casks (about 1,730 MTU) of SF in more than 200 voyages in total, about 160,000 drums of LLW in around 100 voyages in total. This paper introduces the record of safe transport and its experience over the past 30 years and prospect for future transport business

  2. 30 years of experience in safe transportation of nuclear materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaneko, K. [Nuclear Fuel Transport Co., Ltd., Tokyo (Japan)

    2004-07-01

    In April 2003, Nuclear Fuel Transport Co., Ltd. (NFT) marked the 30{sup th} anniversary of its founding. NFT was established in 1973 and in 1978, commenced SF transport to the reprocessing plant in Tokai-mura. And then, after making preparations to transport nuclear materials to the various facilities at the Nuclear Fuel Cycle Center in Rokkasho-mura, NFT successfully started transportation of LLW (low level waste) to Rokksho-mura's LLW disposal center in 1992, domestic land transportation of HLW returned from overseas to the HLW storage center in 1995, domestic land transportation of natural hexafluoride delivered from overseas to the uranium enrichment plant in 1996, and transportation of SF to the reprocessing plant in 2000. NFT has realized an annual SF transportation capacity of 300 MTU and is currently making great company wide efforts to meet the Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant's future SF annual reprocessing capacity of 800MTU. At the end of FY2003, NFT had successfully transported 560 casks (about 1,730 MTU) of SF in more than 200 voyages in total, about 160,000 drums of LLW in around 100 voyages in total. This paper introduces the record of safe transport and its experience over the past 30 years and prospect for future transport business.

  3. NPY and stress 30 years later: the peripheral view.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirsch, Dalay; Zukowska, Zofia

    2012-07-01

    Almost 30 years ago, neuropeptide Y (NPY) was discovered as a sympathetic co-transmitter and one of the most evolutionarily conserved peptides abundantly present all over the body. Soon afterward, NPY's multiple receptors were characterized and cloned, and the peptide's role in stress was first documented. NPY has proven to be pivotal for maintaining many stress responses. Most notably, NPY is known for activating long-lasting vasoconstriction in many vascular beds, including coronary arteries. More recently, NPY was found to play a role in stress-induced accretion of adipose tissue which many times can lead to detrimental metabolic changes. It is however due to its prominent actions in the brain, one of which is its powerful ability to stimulate appetite as well as its anxiolytic activities that NPY became a peptide of importance in neuroscience. In contrast, its actions in the rest of the body, including its role as a stress mediator, remained, surprisingly underappreciated and not well understood. Our research has focused on that other, "peripheral" side of NPY. In this review, we will discuss those actions of NPY on the cardiovascular system and metabolism, as they relate to adaptation to stress, and attempt to both distinguish NPY's effects from and integrate them with the effects of the classical stress mediators, glucocorticoids, and catecholamines. To limit the bias of someone (ZZ) who has viewed the world of stress through the eyes of NPY for over 20 years, fresh insight (DH) has been solicited to more objectively assess NPY's contributions to stress-related diseases and the body's ability to adapt to stress.

  4. Decadal trends of global precipitation in the recent 30 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiaofan; Zhai, Guoqing

    2015-04-01

    In this study, the decadal trends of global precipitation are calculated and compared using the CMAP, GPCP and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis monthly precipitation data over the past 30 years from 1979 to 2008. The major results include the followings: (1) The decadal trend of annually and globally averaged precipitation depends on a decreasing trend for the CMAP data, a flat trend for GPCP data, and an increasing trend for the reanalysis data. (2) The analysis of horizontal distributions of differences in temporally averaged precipitation between the second (1993-2008) and the first (1979-1993) 15 years shows that the decreasing trend in the CMAP data is associated with the reduction in precipitation over the oceans. The further analysis of difference in zonally averaged precipitation rate reveals the increased precipitation rate in both the Tropics and mid-latitudes. The reduction in precipitation over the oceans is significantly weaker in the GPCP data than in the CMAP data, which shows the flat trend in the global GPCP data. The increasing trend of global precipitation average for the reanalysis data is associated with the increase in precipitation off the equator as well as in the mid-latitudes. (3) The further analysis of precipitation statistics reveals that the decreasing trend for the CMAP data is associated with the reduction in high precipitation. The flat trend for the global GPCP data corresponds to the offset between the decrease in low precipitation and the increase in high precipitation. The increasing trend for the reanalysis data is related to the increase in high precipitation.

  5. 30 years of lymph node pathology: biomarkers and other advances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramsay, Alan D

    2013-03-01

    Over the last 30 years there has been a massive change in both the clinical and pathologic aspects of malignant lymphomas. Pathologists are now able to evaluate cellular phenotypes and lineages of tumor cells using a wide variety of biomarkers and molecular techniques. The ability to identify tumor cell phenotypes has revolutionized the classification of lymphomas, leading to an internationally agreed system based on the reliable recognition of specific clinico-pathologic entities. The World Health Organization classification combines clinical features, histomorphology, immunohistochemistry, and molecular and genetic marker data to precisely categorize lymphomas. On the clinical front the increasing use of needle core biopsies has made it easier and quicker to obtain tissue samples, and the development of (18)F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography has revolutionized the assessment of patients both at presentation and after treatment. To improve overall outcomes for lymphoma patients there have been advances in the UK organization of cancer services. Cancer networks have been established, often with network multidisciplinary team meetings, and new diagnoses of lymphoma are reviewed on a network basis by pathologists specializing in the field. National and supranational quality control systems are in place for immunohistochemistry and for molecular techniques and multicenter clinical trials provide information about the efficacy of treatment regimens. The outcome of these advances is that a patient presenting in 2012 with suspected lymphoma can expect to be biopsied rapidly, to receive an accurate pathologic diagnosis by an expert hematopathologist, which will include prognostic marker information, and to have comprehensive disease assessment and discussion by a multidisciplinary team before embarking on the most appropriate treatment for his or her clinical situation. PMID:23417072

  6. TORUS2015: The AGN unification scheme after 30 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gandhi, P.; Hoenig, S. F.

    2015-09-01

    The torus paradigm has proved to be remarkably successful at unifying the observed zoo of active galaxy (AGN) classes, despite having many manifest holes. The field is still data-driven with novel observational results at multiple wavelengths emerging rapidly. We are only now beginning to map out the structure of dusty gas feeding and obscuring AGN, and to model its evolution in galaxy growth. But these have also brought out several apparently contradictory results which must hold the key to future progress. As we celebrate 30 years of the paradigm, this is the perfect time to draw together our current knowledge and reassess the state of the field. This will be an international workshop at the University of Southampton, UK, with the objective of laying out the major challenges to the field and paving future research directions. Our hope is to facilitate plenty of informal discussions between multiwavelength observers and theorists, addressing some key issues: * What is the main driver in the unification scheme? What are the roles of orientation, mass accretion rate and feedback? * What is the nature and structure of gas and dust in the torus? Do we have a self-consistent picture across multiple wavelengths? * How critical is the role of the torus as an interface between small nuclear scales and large galactic scales? Does galaxy evolution necessarily require tori? * How close are we to self-consistently simulating nuclear activity including AGN feeding and nuclear star-formation? Workshop Rationale The three themes of accretion, orientation, and evolution will be covered through invited and solicited contributions. Different to other conferences, we are building each session around some key papers that have shaped the field or those with great future potential to do so. We specifically pit competing ideas against each other to help painting a realistic picture of the state-of-the-art. Each session will end with discussion rounds delving into important future

  7. Short-term geriatric assessment units: 30 years later

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leduc Nicole

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The increasing number of hospitalized elderly persons has greatly challenged decision makers to reorganize services so as to meet the needs of this clientele. Established progressively over the last 30 years, the short-term Geriatric Assessment Unit (GAU is a specialized care program, now implemented in all the general hospital centres in Quebec. Within the scope of a broader reflection upon the appropriate care delivery for elderly patients in our demographic context, there is a need to revisit the role of GAU within the hospital and the continuum of care. The objective of this project is to describe the range of activities offered by Quebec GAU and the resources available to them. Methods In 2004, 64 managers of 71 GAU answered a mail questionnaire which included 119 items covering their unit's operation and resources in 2002-2003. The clinical and administrative characteristics of the clientele admitted during this period were obtained from the provincial database Med-Echo. The results were presented according to the geographical location of GAU, their size, their university academic affiliation, the composition of their medical staff, and their clinical care profile. Results Overall, GAU programs admitted 9% of all patients aged 65 years and older in the surveyed year. GAU patients presented one or more geriatric syndromes, including dementia. Based on their clientele, three distinct clinical care profiles of GAU were identified. Only 19% of GAU were focused on geriatric assessment and acute care management; 23% mainly offered rehabilitation care, and the others offered a mix of both types. Thus, there was a significant heterogeneity in GAU's operation. Conclusions The GAU is at the cutting edge of geriatric services in hospital centres. Given the scarcity of these resources, it would be appropriate to better target the clientele that may benefit from them. Standardizing and promoting GAU's primary role in acute care must

  8. Synthesising 30 years of mathematical modelling of Echinococcus transmission.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jo-An M Atkinson

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Echinococcosis is a complex zoonosis that has domestic and sylvatic lifecycles, and a range of different intermediate and definitive host species. The complexities of its transmission and the sparse evidence on the effectiveness of control strategies in diverse settings provide significant challenges for the design of effective public health policy against this disease. Mathematical modelling is a useful tool for simulating control packages under locally specific transmission conditions to inform optimal timing and frequency of phased interventions for cost-effective control of echinococcosis. The aims of this review of 30 years of Echinococcus modelling were to discern the epidemiological mechanisms underpinning models of Echinococcus granulosus and E. multilocularis transmission and to establish the need to include a human transmission component in such models. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A search was conducted of all relevant articles published up until July 2012, identified from the PubMED, Web of Knowledge and Medline databases and review of bibliographies of selected papers. Papers eligible for inclusion were those describing the design of a new model, or modification of an existing mathematical model of E. granulosus or E. multilocularis transmission. A total of 13 eligible papers were identified, five of which described mathematical models of E. granulosus and eight that described E. multilocularis transmission. These models varied primarily on the basis of six key mechanisms that all have the capacity to modulate model dynamics, qualitatively affecting projections. These are: 1 the inclusion of a 'latent' class and/or time delay from host exposure to infectiousness; 2 an age structure for animal hosts; 3 the presence of density-dependent constraints; 4 accounting for seasonality; 5 stochastic parameters; and 6 inclusion of spatial and risk structures. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This review discusses the conditions under

  9. Daily Care

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... to Know Online Tools Enhancing Daily Life Daily Plan Activities Communication Food & Eating Music & Art Personal Care Incontinence Bathing ... Tweet Email | Print Create a Daily Routine Daily Plan Activities Communication Food/Eating Get Tips on Personal Care Bathing ...

  10. Technical Note: 30 years of HIRS data of upper tropospheric humidity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Gierens

    2014-07-01

    Radiation Sounder data to produce a 30-year data set of upper tropospheric humidity with respect to ice (UTHi. Since the required brightness temperatures (channels 12 and 6, T12 and T6 are intercalibrated to different versions of the HIRS sensors (HIRS/2 and HIRS/4 it is necessary to convert the channel 6 brightness temperatures which are intercalibrated to HIRS/4 into equivalent brightness temperatures intercalibrated to HIRS/2, which is achieved using a linear regression. Using the new regression coefficients we produce daily files of UTHi, T12 and T6, for each NOAA satellite and METOP-A (Meteorological Operational Satellite Programme, which carry the HIRS instrument. From this we calculate daily and monthly means in 2.5° × 2.5° resolution for the northern midlatitude zone 30–60° N. As a first application we calculate decadal means of UTHi and the brightness temperatures for the two decades 1980–1989 and 2000–2009. We find that the humidity mainly increased from the 1980s to the 2000s and that this increase is highly statistically significant in large regions of the considered midlatitude belt. The main reason for this result and its statistical significance is the corresponding increase of the T12 variance. Changes of the mean brightness temperatures are less significant.

  11. Lunokhod 2 - A retrospective Glance after 30 Years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gromov, V.; Kemurdjian, A.; Bogatchev, A.; Koutcherenko, V.; Malenkov, M.; Matrossov, S.; Vladykin, S.; Petriga, V.; Khakhanov, Y.

    2003-04-01

    30 years have passed since the second Soviet research Lunokhod-2 rover landed on the Moon on January 16, 1973 within the framework of the Luna-21 mission. Scientific explorations of the lunar surface and space, begun with the Lunokhod-1 rover (1970-1971), were continued with Lunokhod-2. Creation of Lunokhod-1 and Lunokhod-2 marked realization of direction on study of planets using mobile self-propelled robots. Other direction connected with using planetary rovers to transport astronauts, scientific equipment and weights was realized as a result of creation of the American LRV lunar rover. Astronauts during Apollo-15 (1971), Apollo-15 (1972) and Apollo-15 (1972) missions used it. Programs of operation for Lunokhod-1,-2 on the Moon envisaged investigations of topographic and morphological peculiarities of the terrain, determination of the chemical composition and physical and mechanical properties of soil, experiments on the laser detection and ranging of the Moon and, etc. Successful fulfilment of programs was ensured, to a considerable extent, with the self-propelled chassis developed at VNIITRANSMASH to order of the Lavochkin Scientific and Production Association (NPOL). The chassis, on the one hand, ensured necessary cross-country ability for Lunokhod-1,-2, on the other hand, it was as the independent scientific instrument, which provided investigation as temperature measurement of the lunar surface, surface topography and craters distribution, physical and mechanical properties of soil with the special PROP instrument equipped with the penetrometer, chassis traction-cohesive characteristics, upper surface layer by a character its deformation by the mover, etc. A number of improvements of Lunokhod-2 improving its operating characteristics were performed on the basis of results of Lunokhod-1 operation. Lunokhod-1,-2 operation confirmed that automatic mobile robots can be used as effective means for studying planets and their satellites. At the same time, an

  12. Statistical Modelling of Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L. Chu (LanFen); M.J. McAleer (Michael); C-H. Chang (Chu-Hsiang)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper, the annual maximum daily rainfall data from 1961 to 2010 are modelled for 18 stations in Taiwan. We fit the rainfall data with stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions (GEV), and estimate their future behaviour based on the best fitting model.

  13. Statistical Modelling of Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L-F. Chu (Lan-Fen); M.J. McAleer (Michael); C-C. Chang (Ching-Chung)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper, the annual maximum daily rainfall data from 1961 to 2010 are modelled for 18 stations in Taiwan. We fit the rainfall data with stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions (GEV), and estimate their future behaviour based on the best fitting model.

  14. Changes in the rainfall-streamflow regimes related to climate change in a small catchment in Northern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pieri, Linda; Rondini, Davide; Ventura, Francesca

    2016-05-01

    Climate change has become an important issue for scientific community, for its numerous impacts, especially on agriculture and environment. To shed light on this phenomenon, long data-sets of meteorological data as well as temperature and rainfall extreme events are needed, since they are important climate variability indicators. In a small semi-agricultural catchment of the Italian Apennines, drained by the Centonara Stream, weather data have been monitored for 30 years (1986-2015). Here, their trend was identified with Mann-Kendall test, and the temperature and precipitation extremes were characterized by means of specific indices. Data were analyzed at event, daily, seasonal, and annual bases. In addition, to understand implications of rainfall patterns on catchment hydrological response, a total of 388 rainfall-streamflow events (recorded during 1994-2009) were analyzed. Results showed a significant increase of temperature (minimum (Tn), mean (Tm), and maximum (Tx)), both at annual and seasonal base, except for Winter, with an annual mean increase of 0.08, 0.09, and 0.13 °C year-1 for Tn, Tm, and Tx, respectively. Annual rainfall data showed a positive trend for the number of wet days, but not in the quantity. In Winter, the rainfall amount and the number of wet days increased. The annual number of rainfall extreme events (P > 20.2 mm and D > 18.3 h) significantly increased, especially in spring and autumn. The rainfall-streamflow relationship suggested that the flow response of the Centonara Stream depends mainly on the rainfall amount. So, since the number of extreme events (P > 20.2 mm) is increasing in spring and autumn, an increase of events with high streamflow in these seasons may occur.

  15. Isotretinoin: dose, duration and relapse. What does 30 years of usage tell us?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rademaker, Marius

    2013-08-01

    With 30 years of clinical use, it is appropriate to review the use of isotretinoin. We now understand that retinoids influence cellular growth, differentiation, morphogenesis and apoptosis, inhibit tumour promotion and malignant cell growth, exert immuno-modulatory actions and alter cellular cohesiveness. This has expanded the indications of isotretinoin from just acne and rosacea to a wide range of inflammatory and malignant skin disorders. While the standard dose of 0.5 to 1 mg/kg per day for 4 months to a cumulative dose of 120-140 mg/kg per day has served us well in the management of acne vulgaris, there is emerging evidence that much lower dosages (as low as 5 mg/day) are just as effective but have significantly fewer adverse effects. Relapse of acne vulgaris continues to be a problem but we are beginning to recognise that this is related less to the cumulative dose and more to the length of sebaceous gland suppression. Other factors important for relapse include a macrocomedonal pattern of acne, smoking and age, both younger (under 14 years) and older (over 25 years). After 30 years of use, we now understand why isotretinoin is such an effective drug. Not only does it clear acne in almost all patients, long-term remission can be achieved in 70-80% of patients with a single course. Important changes in the use of isotretinoin include using a lower daily dose for a longer period of time. New indications continue to emerge, particularly as a potential treatment for both intrinsic and extrinsic (photo) aging. Teratogenicity however, remains a very significant concern. PMID:23013115

  16. VIP Data Explorer: A Tool for Exploring 30 years of Vegetation Index and Phenology Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barreto-munoz, A.; Didan, K.; Rivera-Camacho, J.; Yitayew, M.; Miura, T.; Tsend-Ayush, J.

    2011-12-01

    Continuous acquisition of global satellite imagery over the years has contributed to the creation of long term data records from AVHRR, MODIS, TM, SPOT-VGT and other sensors. These records account for 30+ years, as these archives grow, they become invaluable tools for environmental, resources management, and climate studies dealing with trends and changes from local, regional to global scale. In this project, the Vegetation Index and Phenology Lab (VIPLab) is processing 30 years of daily global surface reflectance data into an Earth Science Data Record of Vegetation Index and Phenology metrics. Data from AVHRR (N07,N09,N11 and N14) and MODIS (AQUA and TERRA collection 5) for the periods 1981-1999 and 2000-2010, at CMG resolution were processed into one seamless and sensor independent data record using various filtering, continuity and gap filling techniques (Tsend-Ayush et al., AGU 2011, Rivera-Camacho et al, AGU 2011). An interactive online tool (VIP Data Explorer) was developed to support the visualization, qualitative and quantitative exploration, distribution, and documentation of these records using a simple web 2.0 interface. The VIP Data explorer (http://vip.arizona.edu/viplab_data_explorer) can display any combination of multi temporal and multi source data, enable the quickly exploration and cross comparison of the various levels of processing of this data. It uses the Google Earth (GE) model and was developed using the GE API for images rendering, manipulation and geolocation. These ESDRs records can be quickly animated in this environment and explored for visual trends and anomalies detection. Additionally the tool enables extracting and visualizing any land pixel time series while showing the different levels of processing it went through. User can explore this ESDR database within this data explorer GUI environment, and any desired data can be placed into a dynamic "cart" to be ordered and downloaded later. More functionalities are planned and will be

  17. Evolution of rainfall in the Sahel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this note, a number of main meteorological stations has been chosen to analyse the rainfall during the last 30 years in the Sahel (1961 to 1990). Reliable climatological data have been used for this study. The concerned area is limited by the 200 mm isohyet in the north and 600 mm isohyet in the south in the Sahel countries (Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Chad). The evolution of rainfall has pointed out some similar and significant aspects for all stations studied. Established criteria have been used to characterize the annual rainfall and to determine the years with good rainfall and years of drought in the Sahel. (author). 6 refs, 3 figs

  18. Projecting changes in future heavy rainfall events for Oahu, Hawaii: A statistical downscaling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norton, Chase W.; Chu, Pao-Shin; Schroeder, Thomas A.

    2011-09-01

    A statistical model based on nonlinear artificial neural networks is used to downscale daily extreme precipitation events in Oahu, Hawaii, from general circulation model (GCM) outputs and projected into the future. From a suite of GCMs and their emission scenarios, two tests recommended by the International Panel on Climate Change are conducted and the ECHAM5 A2 is selected as the most appropriate one for downscaling precipitation extremes for Oahu. The skill of the neural network model is highest in drier, leeward regions where orographic uplifting has less influence on daily extreme precipitation. The trained model is used with the ECHAM5 forced by emissions from the A2 scenario to simulate future daily precipitation on Oahu. A BCa bootstrap resampling method is used to provide 95% confidence intervals of the storm frequency and intensity for all three data sets (actual observations, downscaled GCM output from the present-day climate, and downscaled GCM output for future climate). Results suggest a tendency for increased frequency of heavy rainfall events but a decrease in rainfall intensity during the next 30 years (2011-2040) for the southern shoreline of Oahu.

  19. Rainfall erosivity estimation based on rainfall data collected over a range of temporal resolutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Yin

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall erosivity is the power of rainfall to cause soil erosion by water. The rainfall erosivity index for a rainfall event, EI30, is calculated from the total kinetic energy and maximum 30 min intensity of individual events. However, these data are often unavailable in many areas of the world. The purpose of this study was to develop models that relate more commonly available rainfall data resolutions, such as daily or monthly totals, to rainfall erosivity. Eleven stations with one-minute temporal resolution rainfall data collected from 1961 through 2000 in the eastern water-erosion areas of China were used to develop and calibrate 21 models. Seven independent stations, also with one-minute data, were utilized to validate those models, together with 20 previously published equations. Results showed that models in this study performed better or similar to models from previous research to estimate rainfall erosivity for these data. Prediction capabilities, as determined using symmetric mean absolute percentage errors and Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficients, were demonstrated for the 41 models including those for estimating erosivity at event, daily, monthly, yearly, average monthly and average annual time scales. Prediction capabilities were generally better using higher resolution rainfall data as inputs. For example, models with rainfall amount and maximum 60 min rainfall amount as inputs performed better than models with rainfall amount and maximum daily rainfall amount, which performed better than those with only rainfall amount. Recommendations are made for choosing the appropriate estimation equation, which depend on objectives and data availability.

  20. Characteristics of atmospheric aerosol optical depth variation over China in recent 30 years

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    This note retrieves the annual and monthly mean 0.75 μm aerosol optical depth (AOD) by using the daily direct solar radiation and sunshine duration data of 47 solar stations from 1961 to 1990. The characteristic of AOD variation over China in recent 30 years was analyzed. The results indicate that AOD increased obviously over China from 1961 to 1990. AOD increased most rapidly over the east part of Southwest China, the middle-and-lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Tibetan Plateau. The increasing trend of AOD is also relatively distinct in North China, the Shandong Peninsula, east part of Qinghai Province, and coastal areas of Guangdong Province. However, in most parts of Northwest China and Northeast China, the increase of AOD is less significant, while in the west part of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and some parts of Yunnan Province, AOD shows decreasing tendency. Generally, AOD reaches its maximum in spring and the minimum appears in summer. As to the linear trend, the maximum occurs in spring but the minimum in winter. Among the 47 stations selected in this note, the largest three stations of AOD are Chengdu, Chongqing and Nanchong, respectively, which all lie in the Sichuan Basin, and the smallest value of AOD occurs in Jinghong located in Yunnan Province.

  1. Rainfall Variability, Drought Characterization, and Efficacy of Rainfall Data Reconstruction: Case of Eastern Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Oscar Kisaka

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study examined the extent of seasonal rainfall variability, drought occurrence, and the efficacy of interpolation techniques in eastern Kenya. Analyses of rainfall variability utilized rainfall anomaly index, coefficients of variance, and probability analyses. Spline, Kriging, and inverse distance weighting interpolation techniques were assessed using daily rainfall data and digital elevation model using ArcGIS. Validation of these interpolation methods was evaluated by comparing the modelled/generated rainfall values and the observed daily rainfall data using root mean square errors and mean absolute errors statistics. Results showed 90% chance of below cropping threshold rainfall (500 mm exceeding 258.1 mm during short rains in Embu for one year return period. Rainfall variability was found to be high in seasonal amounts (CV = 0.56, 0.47, and 0.59 and in number of rainy days (CV = 0.88, 0.49, and 0.53 in Machang’a, Kiritiri, and Kindaruma, respectively. Monthly rainfall variability was found to be equally high during April and November (CV = 0.48, 0.49, and 0.76 with high probabilities (0.67 of droughts exceeding 15 days in Machang’a and Kindaruma. Dry-spell probabilities within growing months were high, (91%, 93%, 81%, and 60% in Kiambere, Kindaruma, Machang’a, and Embu, respectively. Kriging interpolation method emerged as the most appropriate geostatistical interpolation technique suitable for spatial rainfall maps generation for the study region.

  2. Spatio-temporal variability of rainfall regime in the Brahmaputra valley of North East India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deka, R. L.; Mahanta, C.; Nath, K. K.; Dutta, M. K.

    2016-05-01

    Monthly rainfall data, spanning over 110 years (1901-2010), were utilized for trend analysis at different spatial and temporal scales over the Brahmaputra valley, India. The Mann-Kendall statistic and Sen's slope model were used to identify the trends and estimate the magnitude of change, respectively. Statistical significance of the decadal shifts in rainfall from the overall mean was estimated by using Cramer's test. The analysis revealed decrease in annual as well as monsoon rainfall in the Brahmaputra valley during the last 110 years with large spatial and temporal variations. These decreasing trends of rainfall in the eastern part of the valley were statistically significant. Significant decreasing trend of monsoon rainfall during the recent 30-year period was due to significant decrease of July and September rainfall, and this trend was found to be consistent at different spatial scales. In the last decade (2001-2010) in particular, monsoon rainfall exhibited significant negative deviation from the normal due to three deficient years and absence of excess rainfall years. On the contrary, contribution of pre-monsoon and post-monsoon rainfall to annual total in the Brahmaputra valley increased during the recent 30-year period. Winter rainfall in the valley decreased during the last 30 years due to significant decrease of December rainfall in the eastern and central parts.

  3. Análisis metodológico de la distribución espacial de la precipitación y la estimación media diaria Methodological analysis of the spatial distribution of rainfall and the average daily stimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauro Íñiguez Covarrubias

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available El objetivo del trabajo consistió en mostrar un análisis metodológico geoestadístico, para generar un patrón espacial de la lluvia, asociado a la precipitación media diaria. Caracterizar y conocer la distribución espacial de la precipitación, también conocida como "campo de tormenta" y asociarla a un modelo de distribución o sustituirla por una precipitación media por métodos convencionales, es un reto importante en estudios de las ciencias del agua. La metodología propuesta requiere de la construcción de un variograma, elaborado por un ajuste de datos experimentales de un campo de tormenta, que sirva como base para generar la distribución espacial de la lluvia con la aplicación del método geoestadístico del "krigeado". Esto permite determinar la precipitación media diaria de una cuenca hidrográfica. Los resultados muestran que es posible obtener una función que relacione la lluvia media con el campo de tormenta, mediante los parámetros α y β del variograma ajustado a un modelo esférico. Para validar la aplicación de la metodología se analizaron varios eventos, aquí se presentan dos eventos de precipitación observada en la cuenca del río Juchipila, y río Calvillo, entre los estados de Aguascalientes y Zacatecas. Los resultados muestran una relación única de la lluvia media diaria con la distribución espacial, representada por el campo de tormenta. Asimismo, se encontró que el valor óptimo de la función es mínimo al compararlo con los resultados obtenidos por cuatro métodos convencionales: promedio aritmético, polígonos de Thiessen, método de isoyetas y método de krigeado lineal.The aim of the study was to show a geostatistical methodological analysis to create a spatial pattern of rain, related to average daily rainfall. Defining and knowing the spatial distribution of rainfall, also known as the "storm field" and related to a distribution model, or replacing it to an average rainfall using conventional

  4. FROM RAINFALL DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sisuru Sendanayake

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available There are many correlations developed to predict incident solar radiation at a givenlocation developed based on geographical and meteorological parameters. However, allcorrelations depend on accurate measurement and availability of weather data such assunshine duration, cloud cover, relative humidity, maximum and minimumtemperatures etc, which essentially is a costly exercise in terms of equipment andlabour. Sri Lanka being a tropical island of latitudinal change of only 30 along thelength of the country, the meteorological factors govern the amount of incidentradiation. Considering the cloud formation and wind patterns over Sri Lanka as well asthe seasonal rainfall patterns, it can be observed that the mean number of rainy dayscan be used to predict the monthly average daily global radiation which can be used forcalculations in solar related activities conveniently.

  5. Trends in rainfall and rainfall-related extremes in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayowa, Olaniya Olusegun; Pour, Sahar Hadi; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Mohsenipour, Morteza; Harun, Sobri Bin; Heryansyah, Arien; Ismail, Tarmizi

    2015-12-01

    The coastlines have been identified as the most vulnerable regions with respect to hydrological hazards as a result of climate change and variability. The east of peninsular Malaysia is not an exception for this, considering the evidence of heavy rainfall resulting in floods as an annual phenomenon and also water scarcity due to long dry spells in the region. This study examines recent trends in rainfall and rainfall- related extremes such as, maximum daily rainfall, number of rainy days, average rainfall intensity, heavy rainfall days, extreme rainfall days, and precipitation concentration index in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia. Recent 40 years (1971-2010) rainfall records from 54 stations along the east coast of peninsular Malaysia have been analyzed using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and the Sen's slope method. The Monte Carlo simulation technique has been used to determine the field significance of the regional trends. The results showed that there was a substantial increase in the annual rainfall as well as the rainfall during the monsoon period. Also, there was an increase in the number of heavy rainfall days during the past four decades.

  6. A Rainfall Model Based on a Geographically Weighted Regression Algorithm for Rainfall Estimations over the Arid Qaidam Basin in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aifeng Lv

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Accurate rainfall estimations based on ground-based rainfall observations and satellite-based rainfall measurements are essential for hydrological and environmental modeling in the Qaidam Basin of China. We evaluated the accuracy of daily and monthly scale Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM rainfall products in the Qaidam Basin. A Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR was used to estimate the spatial distribution of the TRMM product error using altitude and geographical latitude and longitude as independent variables. Finally, a rainfall model was developed by combining ground-based and satellite-based rainfall measurements, and the model precision was validated with a cross-validation method based on rainfall gauge measurements. The TRMM precipitation observations may contain errors compared with the ground-measured precipitation, and the error for daily data was higher than that for monthly data. A time series of TRMM rainfall measurements at the same location showed errors at certain time intervals. The ground-based and satellite-based rainfall GWR model improved the error in the TRMM rainfall products. This rainfall estimation model with a 1-km spatial resolution is applicable in the Qaidam Basin in which there is a sparse network of rainfall gauges, and is significant for spatial investigations of hydrology and climate change.

  7. 30 years of upper air soundings on board of R/V POLARSTERN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Driemel, Amelie; Loose, Bernd; Grobe, Hannes; Sieger, Rainer; König-Langlo, Gert

    2016-06-01

    The research vessel and supply icebreaker POLARSTERN is the flagship of the Alfred-Wegener-Institut in Bremerhaven (Germany) and one of the infrastructural pillars of German Antarctic research. Since its commissioning in 1982, POLARSTERN has conducted 30 campaigns to Antarctica (157 legs, mostly austral summer), and 29 to the Arctic (94 legs, northern summer). Usually, POLARSTERN is more than 300 days per year in operation and crosses the Atlantic Ocean in a meridional section twice a year. The first radiosonde on POLARSTERN was released on the 29 December 1982, 2 days after POLARSTERN started on its maiden voyage to the Antarctic. And these daily soundings have continued up to the present. Due to the fact that POLARSTERN has reliably and regularly been providing upper air observations from data sparse regions (oceans and polar regions), the radiosonde data are of special value for researchers and weather forecast services alike. In the course of 30 years (29 December 1982 to 25 November 2012) a total of 12 378 radiosonde balloons were started on POLARSTERN. All radiosonde data can now be found at König-Langlo (2015, http://dx.doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.810000" target="_blank">doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.810000). Each data set contains the directly measured parameters air temperature, relative humidity and air pressure, and the derived altitude, wind direction and wind speed. 432 data sets additionally contain ozone measurements.Although more sophisticated techniques (meteorological satellites, aircraft observation, remote-sensing systems, etc.) have nowadays become increasingly important, the high vertical resolution and quality of radiosonde data remains paramount for weather forecasts and modelling approaches.

  8. Strongest Tropical cyclones: 1980-2009: A 30-year collage of Hurricane Satellite (HURSAT) data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Strongest Tropical Cyclones: 1980-2009 poster - a 30-year collage of Hurricane Satellite (HURSAT) data. This poster depicts a series of 5 degree grids where within...

  9. Simulação da precipitação diária para Parnaíba e Teresina, PI, em planilha eletrônica Daily rainfall simulation in Parnaíba and Teresina - Brazil, using a spreadsheet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aderson S. de Andrade Júnior

    2001-05-01

    Full Text Available Os estudos envolvendo precipitação pluviométrica são bastante dificultados devido ao fato das séries históricas disponíveis serem, na maioria dos casos, muito pequenas para efetuá-los. Desta forma, faz-se necessário dispor de uma técnica de simulação estocástica que possibilite a geração de valores diários de precipitação, utilizando-se uma planilha eletrônica. No Estado do Piauí, estudos com esse objetivo são inexistentes, razão por que este trabalho tem o objetivo de simular a precipitação pluviométrica diária para as regiões de Parnaíba e Teresina, PI, através de uma planilha eletrônica. O processo de simulação se baseou no método de Monte Carlo. A ocorrência da precipitação foi determinada através da cadeia de Markov, enquanto a sua magnitude foi estimada pelas funções de distribuição de probabilidades gama e empírica. O modelo utilizado proporcionou estimativas com excelente precisão e exatidão, fato comprovado pelos resultados satisfatórios quanto aos índices de desempenho estatísticos.The studies involving rainfall are quite difficult to conduct due to the fact that the available historical series, in most of the cases, are too small to make them. Thus, it is necessary to adjust a stochastic simulation technique that facilitates the generation of daily rainfall values, using a spreadsheet. In Piauí State, studies with this objective are inexistent for its several regions of agricultural importance. This work was executed with the objective of simulating the daily rainfall for the regions of Parnaíba and Teresina - PI, Brazil, using a spreadsheet. The simulation process was based on Monte Carlo's method. The occurrence of the rainfall was determined through a Markov chain, while its magnitude was estimated by gamma and empirical distribution functions. The model used provided estimates with excellent precision and accuracy, checked by satisfactory results of the statistical performance index.

  10. Exhibition on the 30 Years of Reform and Opening-up Held

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    @@ In commemoration of the 30 years of reform and opening-up, under the authorization of the State Council, the "Review Exhibition on the 30-Year Reform and Opening-Up of China," jointly sponsored by the Ministry of Commerce of the PRC, the International Communication Office of the CPC Central Committee, the Party Literature Research Center of the CPC Central Committee and Xinhua News Agency, opened in the Exhibition Hall of the China World Trade Center on December 18.

  11. Polyurethane-Coated Breast Implants Revisited: A 30-Year Follow-Up

    OpenAIRE

    Castel, Nikki; Soon-Sutton, Taylor; Deptula, Peter; Flaherty, Anna; Parsa, Fereydoun Don

    2015-01-01

    Background Polyurethane coating of breast implants has been shown to reduce capsular contracture in short-term follow-up studies. This 30-year study is the longest examination of the use of polyurethane-coated implants and their correlation with capsular contracture. Methods This study evaluates the senior surgeon's (F.D.P.) experience with the use of polyurethane-coated implants in aesthetic breast augmentation in 382 patients over 30 years. Follow-up evaluations were conducted for six month...

  12. Trends in rainfall and rainfall-related extremes in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Olaniya Olusegun Mayowa; Sahar Hadi Pour; Shamsuddin Shahid; Morteza Mohsenipour; Sobri Bin Harun; Arien Heryansyah; Tarmizi Ismail

    2015-12-01

    The coastlines have been identified as the most vulnerable regions with respect to hydrological hazards as a result of climate change and variability. The east of peninsular Malaysia is not an exception for this, considering the evidence of heavy rainfall resulting in floods as an annual phenomenon and also water scarcity due to long dry spells in the region. This study examines recent trends in rainfall and rainfallrelated extremes such as, maximum daily rainfall, number of rainy days, average rainfall intensity, heavy rainfall days, extreme rainfall days, and precipitation concentration index in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia. Recent 40 years (1971–2010) rainfall records from 54 stations along the east coast of peninsular Malaysia have been analyzed using the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and the Sen's slope method. The Monte Carlo simulation technique has been used to determine the field significance of the regional trends. The results showed that there was a substantial increase in the annual rainfall as well as the rainfall during the monsoon period. Also, there was an increase in the number of heavy rainfall days during the past four decades.

  13. Trends in rainfall erosivity (1955-2006) over the Ebro basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rainfall is one of the main factors affecting soil erosion. This effect is summarized in the concept or rainfall erosivity which involves the drop size distribution and kinetic energy of an event, its duration and intensity, and the runoff that generates. To calculate rainfall erosivity several indices can be applied. The most extensively used is the R factor of the Revised Universal soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). To compute this index continuous rainfall data are needed. This kind of data is difficult to obtain with a good spatial and temporal coverage. In this work, daily rainfall records have been converted into daily rainfall erosivity data. For this objective, we used the Richardson et al. (1983) exponential relationship between rainfall volume and rainfall erosivity to create the Daily Rainfall Erosivity Model (DREM). (Author) 4 refs.

  14. U.S. Daily Climate Normals (1981-2010)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. Daily Climate Normals for 1981 to 2010 are 30-year averages of meteorological parameters for thousands of U.S. stations located across the 50 states, as...

  15. Topographic relationships for design rainfalls over Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, F.; Hutchinson, M. F.; The, C.; Beesley, C.; Green, J.

    2016-02-01

    Design rainfall statistics are the primary inputs used to assess flood risk across river catchments. These statistics normally take the form of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves that are derived from extreme value probability distributions fitted to observed daily, and sub-daily, rainfall data. The design rainfall relationships are often required for catchments where there are limited rainfall records, particularly catchments in remote areas with high topographic relief and hence some form of interpolation is required to provide estimates in these areas. This paper assesses the topographic dependence of rainfall extremes by using elevation-dependent thin plate smoothing splines to interpolate the mean annual maximum rainfall, for periods from one to seven days, across Australia. The analyses confirm the important impact of topography in explaining the spatial patterns of these extreme rainfall statistics. Continent-wide residual and cross validation statistics are used to demonstrate the 100-fold impact of elevation in relation to horizontal coordinates in explaining the spatial patterns, consistent with previous rainfall scaling studies and observational evidence. The impact of the complexity of the fitted spline surfaces, as defined by the number of knots, and the impact of applying variance stabilising transformations to the data, were also assessed. It was found that a relatively large number of 3570 knots, suitably chosen from 8619 gauge locations, was required to minimise the summary error statistics. Square root and log data transformations were found to deliver marginally superior continent-wide cross validation statistics, in comparison to applying no data transformation, but detailed assessments of residuals in complex high rainfall regions with high topographic relief showed that no data transformation gave superior performance in these regions. These results are consistent with the understanding that in areas with modest topographic relief, as

  16. Responses of grassland vegetation to climatic variations on different temporal scales in Hulun Buir Grassland in the past 30 years

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Geli; XU Xingliang; ZHOU Caiping; ZHANG Hongbin; OUYANG Hua

    2011-01-01

    Global warming has led to significant vegetation changes especially in the past 20 years.Hulun Buir Grassland in Inner Mongolia,one of the world's three prairies,is undergoing a process of prominent warming and drying.It is essential to investigate the effects of climatic change (temperature and precipitation) on vegetation dynamics for a better understanding of climatic change.NDVl (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index),reflecting characteristics of plant growth,vegetation coverage and biomass,is used as an indicator to monitor vegetation changes.GIMMS NDVl from 1981 to 2006 and MODIS NDVl from 2000 to 2009 were adopted and integrated in this study to extract the time series characteristics of vegetation changes in Hulun Buir Grassland.The responses of vegetation coverage to climatic change on the yearly,seasonal and monthly scales were analyzed combined with temperature and precipitation data of seven meteorological sites.In the past 30 years,vegetation coverage was more correlated with climatic factors,and the correlations were dependent on the time scales.On an inter-annual scale,vegetation change was better correlated with precipitation,suggesting that rainfall was the main factor for driving vegetation changes.On a seasonal-interannual scale,correlations between vegetation coverage change and climatic factors showed that the sensitivity of vegetation growth to the aqueous and thermal condition changes was different in different seasons.The sensitivity of vegetation growth to temperature in summers was higher than in the other seasons,while its sensitivity to rainfall in both summers and autumns was higher,especially in summers.On a monthly-interannual scale,correlations between vegetation coverage change and climatic factors during growth seasons showed that the response of vegetation changes to temperature in both April and May was stronger.This indicates that the temperature effect occurs in the early stage of vegetation growth.Correlations between

  17. Gastric cancer in young people under 30 years of age: worse prognosis, or delay in diagnosis?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gastric cancer is an aggressive disease with nonspecific early symptoms. Its incidence and prognosis in young patients has shown considerable variability. Our objective was to retrospectively study patients from our institution aged <30 years with gastric carcinoma. The study was undertaken to describe the experience of gastric cancer in this population, and to demonstrate its specific clinical and pathological characteristics. We reviewed the cases of histologically confirmed gastric cancer between 1985 and 2006 at the Instituto Nacional de Cancerología of Mexico (INCan); emphasis in our review was placed on clinical presentation, diagnostic and therapeutic intervention, pathology, and the results. Thirty cases of gastric carcinoma were reviewed. The patients’ median age was 27 years (range, 18–30 years) and the male:female ratio was 1:1. Gastric cancer exhibits different behavior in patients aged, 30 years, but delay in diagnosis and the tumor’s behavior appear to be the most important factors in prognosis of the disease

  18. Variação espaço-temporal dos parâmetros para a modelagem estocástica da precipitação pluvial diária no Rio Grande do Sul Temporal and spatial variation of parameters for the random modeling of daily rainfall in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo Calgaro

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available O Rio Grande do Sul é um dos maiores produtores de grãos do Brasil, sendo a maioria das culturas conduzida em sistemas não irrigados, tornando-lhes extremamente dependentes das condições climáticas e do regime pluviométrico. Tal fato inspira diversas pesquisas na tentativa de caracterizar o comportamento espacial e temporal das precipitações. Dessa forma, o objetivo do presente trabalho foi estudar a variação espacial e temporal dos parâmetros alfa e beta da função gama para a geração de dados de precipitação pluvial diária no Estado. Os dados de precipitação pluviométrica foram obtidos junto à ANA - Agência Nacional de Águas. A modelagem da precipitação diária foi dividida em ocorrência e quantidade. Realizou-se a estimativa dos parâmetros alfa e beta da função gama a partir das séries históricas, seguida do ajuste desses parâmetros em função do tempo e do espaço e posterior comparação entre os valores estimados e os observados. De acordo com os resultados obtidos, conclui-se que a metodologia desenvolvida pode ser aplicada para a geração de séries sintéticas de precipitação pluvial diária nas diferentes estações pluviométricas do Rio Grande do Sul.Rio Grande do Sul is one of the largest grain producer states in Brazil, since most of the crops grown in non-irrigated systems, thus making them extremely dependent on the climatic conditions and on the pluviometric regime. This fact has inspired several research studies in the attempt of characterizing the spatial and temporal behavior of the rainfall. The objective of this research was to study the spatial and temporal variation of alpha and beta parameters of the gamma function for the generation of daily rainfall data in the state. The pluviometric precipitation data were obtained from the National Water Agency (ANA. The modeling of the daily rainfall was divided into the events of occurrence and quantity. Estimation of alpha and beta parameters

  19. Heavy rainfall equations for Santa Catarina, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Álvaro José Back

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge of intensity-duration-frequency (IDF relationships of rainfall events is extremely important to determine the dimensions of surface drainage structures and soil erosion control. The purpose of this study was to obtain IDF equations of 13 rain gauge stations in the state of Santa Catarina in Brazil: Chapecó, Urussanga, Campos Novos, Florianópolis, Lages, Caçador, Itajaí, Itá, Ponte Serrada, Porto União, Videira, Laguna and São Joaquim. The daily rainfall data charts of each station were digitized and then the annual maximum rainfall series were determined for durations ranging from 5 to 1440 min. Based on these, with the Gumbel-Chow distribution, the maximum rainfall was estimated for durations ranging from 5 min to 24 h, considering return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20, 25, 50, and 100 years,. Data agreement with the Gumbel-Chow model was verified by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, at 5 % significance level. For each rain gauge station, two IDF equations of rainfall events were adjusted, one for durations from 5 to 120 min and the other from 120 to 1440 min. The results show a high variability in maximum intensity of rainfall events among the studied stations. Highest values of coefficients of variation in the annual maximum series of rainfall were observed for durations of over 600 min at the stations of the coastal region of Santa Catarina.

  20. Carbon dioxide exchange above a 30-year-old Scots pine plantation established on organic-soil cropland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the boreal zone, large areas of natural mires have been drained and used for agriculture, resulting in net carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and increased nitrous oxide emissions but decreased methane emissions. However, due to structural changes in agriculture, a substantial area of cropland on organic soil has been afforested. In order to estimate the carbon balance of afforested organic-soil cropland, we measured CO2 and water vapour (H2O) fluxes during year above a Scots pine plantation (Pinus sylvestris) in the middle-boreal zone, using the micrometeorological eddy covariance method. We observed CO2 uptake by the Scots pine stand from late April to mid-October with a daily average net uptake from May to the beginning of October. However, there were also periods of daily net efflux. High ecosystem respiration rates continued throughout the winter (mean winter respiration 0.036 mg CO2 m-2s-1). As an annual average, the 30-year-old pine stand was a small source of CO2 (+50 g m-2a-1) to the atmosphere, showing that the CO2 sequestration into the ecosystem was able to compensate for most of the carbon that was released by heterotrophic respiration from the drained soil. (orig.)

  1. Investigation of summer monsoon rainfall variability in Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussain, Mian Sabir; Lee, Seungho

    2016-01-01

    This study analyzes the inter-annual and intra-seasonal rainfall variability in Pakistan using daily rainfall data during the summer monsoon season (June to September) recorded from 1980 to 2014. The variability in inter-annual monsoon rainfall ranges from 20 % in northeastern regions to 65 % in southwestern regions of Pakistan. The analysis reveals that the transition of the negative and positive anomalies was not uniform in the investigated dataset. In order to acquire broad observations of the intra-seasonal variability, an objective criterion, the pre-active period, active period and post-active periods of the summer monsoon rainfall have demarcated. The analysis also reveals that the rainfall in June has no significant contribution to the increase in intra-seasonal rainfall in Pakistan. The rainfall has, however, been enhanced in the summer monsoon in August. The rainfall of September demonstrates a sharp decrease, resulting in a high variability in the summer monsoon season. A detailed examination of the intra-seasonal rainfall also reveals frequent amplitude from late July to early August. The daily normal rainfall fluctuates significantly with its maximum in the Murree hills and its minimum in the northwestern Baluchistan.

  2. Investigation of summer monsoon rainfall variability in Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussain, Mian Sabir; Lee, Seungho

    2016-08-01

    This study analyzes the inter-annual and intra-seasonal rainfall variability in Pakistan using daily rainfall data during the summer monsoon season (June to September) recorded from 1980 to 2014. The variability in inter-annual monsoon rainfall ranges from 20 % in northeastern regions to 65 % in southwestern regions of Pakistan. The analysis reveals that the transition of the negative and positive anomalies was not uniform in the investigated dataset. In order to acquire broad observations of the intra-seasonal variability, an objective criterion, the pre-active period, active period and post-active periods of the summer monsoon rainfall have demarcated. The analysis also reveals that the rainfall in June has no significant contribution to the increase in intra-seasonal rainfall in Pakistan. The rainfall has, however, been enhanced in the summer monsoon in August. The rainfall of September demonstrates a sharp decrease, resulting in a high variability in the summer monsoon season. A detailed examination of the intra-seasonal rainfall also reveals frequent amplitude from late July to early August. The daily normal rainfall fluctuates significantly with its maximum in the Murree hills and its minimum in the northwestern Baluchistan.

  3. Leadership and Change in Schools: Personal Reflections over the Last 30 Years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seashore, Karen R.

    2009-01-01

    The two fields of leadership studies and school change have increasingly converged over the last 30 years. This paper reviews the origins of the intersection, and the development of research themes in three areas: The role of leaders in shaping and using organizational culture, the agency of teachers in the change process, and the importance of…

  4. How will Climate Change Affect Agriculture over the Next 10-30 Years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agriculture is dependent upon the climate resources of temperature, sunlight, precipitation, and carbon dioxide. Efficient production depends upon optimum conditions of temperature and water supply and changes in these climatic variables will affect plant and animal systems over the next 10- 30 year...

  5. Left ventricular pseudoaneurysm found after mitral valve replacement performed 30 years earlier.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castilla, Elena; Gato, Manuel; Ruiz, José Ramón

    2010-03-01

    Pseudoaneurysm of the left ventricle (LV) is a rare cardiac disease that occurs after myocardial infarction or cardiac surgery. Because patients frequently present with nonspecific symptoms, a high index of suspicion is needed to make the diagnosis. This report describes an unusual case demonstrating a large LV pseudoaneurysm after mitral valve replacement performed 30 years earlier. PMID:20197588

  6. Bullying in Childhood, Externalizing Behaviors, and Adult Offending: Evidence from a 30-Year Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fergusson, David M.; Boden, Joseph M.; Horwood, L. John

    2014-01-01

    This study examined the developmental processes linking childhood bullying to criminal offending in adulthood, using data from a 30-year longitudinal study. The linkages between bullying in childhood and three criminal offending outcomes in adulthood were estimated both before and after control for a range of confounding factors. A series of…

  7. Studies Using Single-Subject Designs in Sport Psychology: 30 Years of Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, G. L.; Thompson, K.; Regehr, K.

    2004-01-01

    A prominent feature of behavior-analytic research has been the use of single-subject designs. We examined sport psychology journals and behavioral journals published during the past 30 years, and located 40 studies using single-subject designs to assess interventions for enhancing the performance of athletes and coaches. In this paper, we…

  8. Philosophic Thinking in Social Work: An Analysis of 30 Years of "Social Work" Editorials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez-Brawley, Emilia E.; Zorita, Paz M-B

    2016-01-01

    This article looks at 30 years of editorial perspectives and trends in social work as a profession through the analysis of editorials from the journal "Social Work." It identifies the wax and wane of philosophic (intellectual or scholarly) questions in social work thinking in the past three decades. It defines what philosophic thinking…

  9. Reflections on 30 Years of AIDS—Part 1

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2011-06-15

    Dr. Kevin DeCock, director of The Center for Global Health at CDC, reflects on 30 years of the AIDS epidemic.  Created: 6/15/2011 by National Center for Emerging Zoonotic and Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 6/16/2011.

  10. Planting Misinformation in the Human Mind: A 30-Year Investigation of the Malleability of Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loftus, Elizabeth F.

    2005-01-01

    The misinformation effect refers to the impairment in memory for the past that arises after exposure to misleading information. The phenomenon has been investigated for at least 30 years, as investigators have addressed a number of issues. These include the conditions under which people are especially susceptible to the negative impact of…

  11. Daily rainfall variability at a local scale (1,000 ha, in Piracicaba, SP, Brazil, and its implications on soil water recharge Variabilidade diária da chuva em uma escala local (1000 ha em Piracicaba, SP, e suas implicações na recarga da água do solo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Reichardt

    1995-04-01

    Full Text Available Daily rainfall variability at a local scale (1,000 ha was studied at Piracicaba, SP, Brazil, for the period of one year (1993-1994, in order to better understand the process of soil water recharge. Coefficients of variation of daily data for ten observation points varied from 2.2 to 169.3% and the variability was independent of rain type, i.e. whether convective, frontal or of other origin. Data were not related to separation distances between observation points and it is concluded that one observation point does not represent areas as far as 1,000 to 2,500 m apart, for daily, monthly or even quarterly averages. Yearly totals for the ten observation points presented a coefficient of variation as low as 3.06%, indicating that all points can replace each other in annual terms.A variabilidade diária da chuva em uma escala local (1000 ha foi estudada em Piracicaba, SP, Brasil, pelo período de um ano (1993-1994. Os coeficientes de variação de dados diários para dez pontos de observação variaram de 2,2 a 169,3 % e a variabilidade independeu do tipo de chuva, isto é, se convectiva, frontal ou de outra origem. Os dados não apresentaram correlação com a distância entre os pontos de observação e concluiu-se que uni ponto de observação não representa áreas distantes dele de 1000 a 2500 m, para médias diárias, mensais ou mesmo trimestrais. Os totais anuais dos dez pontos apresentaram um coeficiente de variação de apenas 3,06 %, indicando que cada ponto pode representar qualquer outro em termos anuais.

  12. 30 years later: Social Representations about AIDS and sexual practices of rural towns residents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furtado, Francisca Marina de Souza Freire; Santos, José Anderson Galdino; Loredanna, Stedile; Araújo, Eunice; Saldanha, Ana Alayde Werba; Silva, Josevânia da

    2016-06-01

    In the 30 years of the AIDS pandemic in Brazil, it is recognized the HIV virus internalization of the phenomenon as a challenge to care and current health policies. In this sense, it aimed to verify sex practices and social representations that rural towns residents have about the disease. Attended by 789 people, men and women, between 18 and 90 years old, residents in 41 towns with fewer than 11,000 inhabitants in the state of Paraiba / Brazil. Data were collected by a questionnaire and the free association of words test. The results showed low concern about disease, perception of invulnerability to HIV infection and not using condoms during sexual intercourse, and confidence in the major reason related partner. Also showed endure derogatory and stereotypical representations, revealing that still persist in rural areas, beliefs and representations concerning the beginning of the epidemic. From these findings, it is possible to point out deficiencies in the care provided by the health services in these localities, which may result in increased vulnerability of this population to diseases, so there is the need to intensify information campaigns and intervention. The results reveal the existence of three different types of modes of learning health literacy skills in informal context: : i) learning that takes place in action, in achieving daily tasks; ii) learning processes that result from problem solving; iii) learning that occurs in an unplanned manner, resulting from accidental circumstances and, in some cases, devoid of intentionality. Nos 30 anos da pandemia da Aids no Brasil, reconhece-se o fenômeno da interiorização do vírus HIV como um desafio ao cuidado e às politicas de saúde atuais. Neste sentido, objetivou-se conhecer práticas sexuais e as representações sociais que residentes de cidades rurais têm acerca da doença. Participaram 789 pessoas, homens e mulheres, entre 18 e 90 anos de idade, residentes em 41 cidades com menos de 11.000 habitantes

  13. Daily Water Use in Nine Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maidment, David R.; Miaou, Shaw-Pin

    1986-06-01

    Transfer functions are used to model the short-term response of daily municipal water use to rainfall and air temperature variations. Daily water use data from nine cities are studied, three cities each from Florida, Pennsylvania, and Texas. The dynamic response of water use to rainfall and air temperature is similar across the cities within each State; in addition the responses of the Texas and Florida cities are very similar to one another while the response of the Pennsylvania cities is more sensitive to air temperature and less to rainfall. There is little impact of city size on the response functions. The response of water use to rainfall depends first on the occurrence of rainfall and second on its magnitude. The occurrence of a rainfall more than 0.05 in./day (0.13 cm/day) causes a drop in the seasonal component of water use one day later that averages 38% for the Texas cities, 42% for the Florida cities, and 7% for the Pennsylvania cities. In Austin, Texas, a spatially averaged rainfall series shows a clearer relationship with water use than does rainfall data from a single gage. There is a nonlinear response of water use to air temperature changes with no response for daily maximum air temperatures between 40° and 70°F (4-21°C) an increase in water use with air temperature beyond 70°F; above 85°-90°F (29°-32°C) water use increases 3-5 times more per degree than below that limit in Texas and Florida. The model resulting from these studies can be used for daily water use forecasting and water conservation analysis.

  14. A rainfall simulation model for agricultural development in Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Sayedur Rahman

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available A rainfall simulation model based on a first-order Markov chain has been developed to simulate the annual variation in rainfall amount that is observed in Bangladesh. The model has been tested in the Barind Tract of Bangladesh. Few significant differences were found between the actual and simulated seasonal, annual and average monthly. The distribution of number of success is asymptotic normal distribution. When actual and simulated daily rainfall data were used to drive a crop simulation model, there was no significant difference of rice yield response. The results suggest that the rainfall simulation model perform adequately for many applications.

  15. Un método para el análisis de frecuencia regional de lluvias máximas diarias: aplicación en los Andes bolivianos A method for regional frequency analysis of maximum daily rainfall: application in the Bolivian Andes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Antonio Luna Vera

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Se presenta un análisis de frecuencia regional con series de lluvia diaria máxima anual para una zona con escasa información. La compleja orografía de montañas y el altiplano de una región en la cordillera de Los Andes, Bolivia, produce diferentes patrones de lluvia diaria. La combinación de los Momentos-L y el análisis de conglomerados resultan adecuados para identificarlas regiones homogéneas de las series máximas anuales. El trabajo desarrollado define 4 regiones homogéneas. La región 1 comprende las estaciones ubicadas en el altiplano y la zona Sur Este. La región 2 abarca el altiplano central y la cuenca del Río La Paz, compuesto por cuencas interandinas. La 3 delimita claramente las estaciones de la zona tropical amazónica; y la 4 está compuesta por estaciones ubicadas en las montañas del Norte. Se probaron diversas distribuciones para el análisis regional de frecuencias aplicando la técnica de estaciones-año; los mejores resultados se obtuvieron con las funciones Gumbel y Doble Gumbel. Finalmente se expresan las ecuaciones regionales y se comparan con algunas series puntuales de cada región, con el objeto de verificar la aplicabilidad de la metodología propuesta para fines de diseño hidrológico.A regional frequency analysis of daily annual maximum rainfall series for an area with poor information is presented. The complex topography mountains and the highlands region in the Cordillera de Los Andes, Bolivia, produce different patterns of daily rainfall. The combination of L-Moments and cluster analysis are adequate to identify the homogeneous regions of the annual maximum series. The work defines 4 homogeneous regions. Region 1 includes the stations located in the highlands and south-east. Region 2 covers the central highlands and La Paz River Basin, consisting of inter-Andean basins. Region 3 clearly defines the Amazonian basin stations and 4 is composed of stations located in the northern mountains. Different

  16. Revisiting 30 years of Biofunctionalization and Surface Chemistry of Inorganic Nanoparticles for Nanomedicine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conde, João; Dias, Jorge; Grazú, Valeria; Moros, Maria; Baptista, Pedro; De La Fuente, Jesús

    2014-07-01

    In the last 30 years we have assisted to a massive advance of nanomaterials in material science. Nanomaterials and structures, in addition to their small size, have properties that differ from those of larger bulk materials, making them ideal for a host of novel applications. The spread of nanotechnology in the last years has been due to the improvement of synthesis and characterization methods on the nanoscale, a field rich in new physical phenomena and synthetic opportunities. In fact, the development of functional nanoparticles has progressed exponentially over the past two decades. This work aims to extensively review 30 years of different strategies of surface modification and functionalization of noble metal (gold) nanoparticles, magnetic nanocrystals and semiconductor nanoparticles, such as quantum dots. The aim of this review is not only to provide in-depth insights into the different biofunctionalization and characterization methods, but also to give an overview of possibilities and limitations of the available nanoparticles.

  17. Revisiting 30 years of Biofunctionalization and Surface Chemistry of Inorganic Nanoparticles for Nanomedicine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    João eConde

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available In the last 30 years we have assisted to a massive advance of nanomaterials in material science. Nanomaterials and structures, in addition to their small size, have properties that differ from those of larger bulk materials, making them ideal for a host of novel applications. The spread of nanotechnology in the last years has been due to the improvement of synthesis and characterization methods on the nanoscale, a field rich in new physical phenomena and synthetic opportunities. In fact, the development of functional nanoparticles has progressed exponentially over the past two decades. This work aims to extensively review 30 years of different strategies of surface modification and functionalization of noble metal (gold nanoparticles, magnetic nanocrystals and semiconductor nanoparticles, such as quantum dots. The aim of this review is not only to provide in-depth insights into the different biofunctionalization and characterization methods, but also to give an overview of possibilities and limitations of the available nanoparticles.

  18. Revisiting 30 years of biofunctionalization and surface chemistry of inorganic nanoparticles for nanomedicine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conde, João; Dias, Jorge T.; Grazú, Valeria; Moros, Maria; Baptista, Pedro V.; de la Fuente, Jesus M.

    2014-01-01

    In the last 30 years we have assisted to a massive advance of nanomaterials in material science. Nanomaterials and structures, in addition to their small size, have properties that differ from those of larger bulk materials, making them ideal for a host of novel applications. The spread of nanotechnology in the last years has been due to the improvement of synthesis and characterization methods on the nanoscale, a field rich in new physical phenomena and synthetic opportunities. In fact, the development of functional nanoparticles has progressed exponentially over the past two decades. This work aims to extensively review 30 years of different strategies of surface modification and functionalization of noble metal (gold) nanoparticles, magnetic nanocrystals and semiconductor nanoparticles, such as quantum dots. The aim of this review is not only to provide in-depth insights into the different biofunctionalization and characterization methods, but also to give an overview of possibilities and limitations of the available nanoparticles. PMID:25077142

  19. 30 years of reform and opening up:experience and characteristics

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈佳贵

    2008-01-01

    This year marks the 30th anniversary of China’s reform and opening-up program,which has brought about unprecedented achievements in the country’s three decades of rapid development. This issue contains three articles on the theme of this 30th anniversary,presenting insights on the past and present and prospects for the coming period. The current issue includes "China’s 30 years of reform and opening up:experiences and characteristics" by Prof. Chen Jiagui;"30 years of prosperity in China’s non-state economy" by Prof. Liu Yingqiu; and "The development of an open economy in China" by Prof. Pei Changhong. These articles evaluate the policies of the past three decades from different angles and looking at different facets,yet each with theoretical as well as practical signif icance. We believe that these historical reflections will steer China on an even more successful path of future reform and opening.

  20. An empirical analysis of issues and trends in manufacturing productivity through a 30-year literature review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee, Choonghyun

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper analysed the keywords in manufacturing productivity- related studies over the last 30 years to consider the change in the concept of ‘productivity’, a longstanding and important factor in studies about manufacturing. After first identifying 110,269 keywords in related research through 11,237 academic papers, we narrowed them down to 97 in nine categories by applying certain criteria. Most of the previous studies dealt with productivity in the context of corporate data; but this study investigated the change in the concept of manufacturing productivity by analysing the keywords of many studies of this concept. We classified the 30 years from 1980 to 2009 into five eras of productivity, according to their representative characteristics, using the analysed keywords. We expect that this study will serve as a practical guideline for managers in industry, and as an academic foundation for future research into productivity.

  1. Rainfall simulation in education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Piet; Baartman, Jantiene; Gooren, Harm; Keesstra, Saskia

    2016-04-01

    Rainfall simulation has become an important method for the assessment of soil erosion and soil hydrological processes. For students, rainfall simulation offers an year-round, attractive and active way of experiencing water erosion, while not being dependent on (outdoors) weather conditions. Moreover, using rainfall simulation devices, they can play around with different conditions, including rainfall duration, intensity, soil type, soil cover, soil and water conservation measures, etc. and evaluate their effect on erosion and sediment transport. Rainfall simulators differ in design and scale. At Wageningen University, both BSc and MSc student of the curriculum 'International Land and Water Management' work with different types of rainfall simulation devices in three courses: - A mini rainfall simulator (0.0625m2) is used in the BSc level course 'Introduction to Land Degradation and Remediation'. Groups of students take the mini rainfall simulator with them to a nearby field location and test it for different soil types, varying from clay to more sandy, slope angles and vegetation or litter cover. The groups decide among themselves which factors they want to test and they compare their results and discuss advantage and disadvantage of the mini-rainfall simulator. - A medium sized rainfall simulator (0.238 m2) is used in the MSc level course 'Sustainable Land and Water Management', which is a field practical in Eastern Spain. In this course, a group of students has to develop their own research project and design their field measurement campaign using the transportable rainfall simulator. - Wageningen University has its own large rainfall simulation laboratory, in which a 15 m2 rainfall simulation facility is available for research. In the BSc level course 'Land and Water Engineering' Student groups will build slopes in the rainfall simulator in specially prepared containers. Aim is to experience the behaviour of different soil types or slope angles when (heavy) rain

  2. Reflections on 30 Years of AIDS—Part 2

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2011-06-15

    Dr. James Curran, Dean of the Rollins School of Public Health and Co-Director of Emory’s Center for AIDS Research, and Dr. Harold Jaffe, CDC’s Associate Director for Science, reflect on 30 years of the AIDS epidemic.  Created: 6/15/2011 by National Center for Emerging Zoonotic and Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 6/20/2011.

  3. The Right Gastroepiploic Artery Graft for Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting: A 30-Year Experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suma, Hisayoshi

    2016-01-01

    Throughout its 30-year history, the right gastroepiploic artery (GEA) has been useful for in situ grafts in coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). The early graft patency rate is high, and the late patency rate has improved by using the skeletonized GEA graft and proper target selection, which involves having a target coronary artery with a tight >90% stenosis. Total arterial revascularization with the internal thoracic artery and GEA grafts is an option for achieving better outcomes from CABG procedures. PMID:27525230

  4. Revisiting 30 years of biofunctionalization and surface chemistry of inorganic nanoparticles for nanomedicine

    OpenAIRE

    João eConde; Dias, Jorge T.; Valeria eGrazú; Maria eMoros; Baptista, Pedro V; de la Fuente, Jesús M

    2014-01-01

    In the last 30 years we have assisted to a massive advance of nanomaterials in material science. Nanomaterials and structures, in addition to their small size, have properties that differ from those of larger bulk materials, making them ideal for a host of novel applications. The spread of nanotechnology in the last years has been due to the improvement of synthesis and characterization methods on the nanoscale, a field rich in new physical phenomena and synthetic opportunities. In fact, the ...

  5. Cervical cancer screening among women aged 18-30 years - United States, 2000-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Screening women for cervical cancer can save lives. However, among young women, cervical cancer is relatively rare, and too-frequent screening can lead to high costs and adverse events associated with overtreatment. Before 2012, cervical cancer screening guidelines of the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG), American Cancer Society (ACS), and U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) differed on age to start and how often to get screened for cervical cancer. In 2012, however, all three organizations recommended that 1) screening by Papanicolau (Pap) test should not be used for women aged <21 years, regardless of initiation of sexual activity, and 2) a screening interval of 3 years should be maintained for women aged 21-30 years. ACS and ACOG explicitly recommend against yearly screening. To assess trends in Pap testing before the new guidelines were introduced, CDC analyzed 2000-2010 data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) for women aged 18-30 years. CDC found that, among women aged 18-21 years, the percentage reporting never having been screened increased from 26.3% in 2000 to 47.5% in 2010, and the proportion reporting having had a Pap test in the past 12 months decreased from 65.0% to 41.5%. Among those aged 22-30 years, the proportion reporting having had a Pap test within the preceding 12 months decreased from 78.1% to 67.0%. These findings showed that Pap testing practices for young women have been moving toward the latest guidelines. However, the data also showed a concerning trend: among women aged 22-30 years, who should be screened every 3 years, the proportion who reported never having had a Pap test increased from 6.6% to 9.0%. More effort is needed to promote acceptance of the latest evidence-based recommendations so that all women receive the maximal benefits of cervical cancer screening.

  6. The history of Cochlear™Nucleus® sound processor upgrades:30 years and counting

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Anne L. Beiter; Esti Nel

    2015-01-01

    Objective:To review developments in sound processors over the past 30 years that have resulted in significant improvements in outcomes for Nucleus® recipients. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Production & hosting by Elsevier (Singapore) Pte Ltd On behalf of PLA General Hospital Department of Otolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

  7. Studies using single-subject designs in sport psychology: 30 years of research

    OpenAIRE

    Martin, Garry L.; Thompson, Kendra; Regehr, Kaleigh

    2004-01-01

    A prominent feature of behavior-analytic research has been the use of single-subject designs. We examined sport psychology journals and behavioral journals published during the past 30 years, and located 40 studies using single-subject designs to assess interventions for enhancing the performance of athletes and coaches. In this paper, we summarize that body of research, discuss its strengths and limitations, and identify areas for future research.

  8. Rainfall Downscaling Conditional on Upper-air Atmospheric Predictors: Improved Assessment of Rainfall Statistics in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langousis, Andreas; Mamalakis, Antonis; Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino

    2015-04-01

    To improve the level skill of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) in reproducing the statistics of rainfall at a basin level and at hydrologically relevant temporal scales (e.g. daily), two types of statistical approaches have been suggested. One is the statistical correction of climate model rainfall outputs using historical series of precipitation. The other is the use of stochastic models of rainfall to conditionally simulate precipitation series, based on large-scale atmospheric predictors produced by climate models (e.g. geopotential height, relative vorticity, divergence, mean sea level pressure). The latter approach, usually referred to as statistical rainfall downscaling, aims at reproducing the statistical character of rainfall, while accounting for the effects of large-scale atmospheric circulation (and, therefore, climate forcing) on rainfall statistics. While promising, statistical rainfall downscaling has not attracted much attention in recent years, since the suggested approaches involved complex (i.e. subjective or computationally intense) identification procedures of the local weather, in addition to demonstrating limited success in reproducing several statistical features of rainfall, such as seasonal variations, the distributions of dry and wet spell lengths, the distribution of the mean rainfall intensity inside wet periods, and the distribution of rainfall extremes. In an effort to remedy those shortcomings, Langousis and Kaleris (2014) developed a statistical framework for simulation of daily rainfall intensities conditional on upper air variables, which accurately reproduces the statistical character of rainfall at multiple time-scales. Here, we study the relative performance of: a) quantile-quantile (Q-Q) correction of climate model rainfall products, and b) the statistical downscaling scheme of Langousis and Kaleris (2014), in reproducing the statistical structure of rainfall, as well as rainfall extremes, at a

  9. Adequacy of satellite derived rainfall data for stream flow modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Artan, G.; Gadain, Hussein; Smith, Jody L.; Asante, Kwasi; Bandaragoda, C.J.; Verdin, J.P.

    2007-01-01

    Floods are the most common and widespread climate-related hazard on Earth. Flood forecasting can reduce the death toll associated with floods. Satellites offer effective and economical means for calculating areal rainfall estimates in sparsely gauged regions. However, satellite-based rainfall estimates have had limited use in flood forecasting and hydrologic stream flow modeling because the rainfall estimates were considered to be unreliable. In this study we present the calibration and validation results from a spatially distributed hydrologic model driven by daily satellite-based estimates of rainfall for sub-basins of the Nile and Mekong Rivers. The results demonstrate the usefulness of remotely sensed precipitation data for hydrologic modeling when the hydrologic model is calibrated with such data. However, the remotely sensed rainfall estimates cannot be used confidently with hydrologic models that are calibrated with rain gauge measured rainfall, unless the model is recalibrated. ?? Springer Science+Business Media, Inc. 2007.

  10. Volatility modeling of rainfall time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yusof, Fadhilah; Kane, Ibrahim Lawal

    2013-07-01

    Networks of rain gauges can provide a better insight into the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall, but they tend to be too widely spaced for accurate estimates. A way to estimate the spatial variability of rainfall between gauge points is to interpolate between them. This paper evaluates the spatial autocorrelation of rainfall data in some locations in Peninsular Malaysia using geostatistical technique. The results give an insight on the spatial variability of rainfall in the area, as such, two rain gauges were selected for an in-depth study of the temporal dependence of the rainfall data-generating process. It could be shown that rainfall data are affected by nonlinear characteristics of the variance often referred to as variance clustering or volatility, where large changes tend to follow large changes and small changes tend to follow small changes. The autocorrelation structure of the residuals and the squared residuals derived from autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were inspected, the residuals are uncorrelated but the squared residuals show autocorrelation, and the Ljung-Box test confirmed the results. A test based on the Lagrange multiplier principle was applied to the squared residuals from the ARIMA models. The results of this auxiliary test show a clear evidence to reject the null hypothesis of no autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) effect. Hence, it indicates that generalized ARCH (GARCH) modeling is necessary. An ARIMA error model is proposed to capture the mean behavior and a GARCH model for modeling heteroskedasticity (variance behavior) of the residuals from the ARIMA model. Therefore, the composite ARIMA-GARCH model captures the dynamics of daily rainfall in the study area. On the other hand, seasonal ARIMA model became a suitable model for the monthly average rainfall series of the same locations treated.

  11. Daily Democracy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larson, Karin; Giro, Francesca; Graham, Todd;

    Although the ubiquity of social media points to everyday concerns, when it comes to analysing its use by politicians research typically focuses on the exceptional, namely election campaigns. While this provides insight into a highly visible and strategically mediated phase of the political process...... for bottom-up reciprocity between politicians and citizens engaging with social media. We dicuss our findings in light of ongoing debates about postmodern politics and the empowering potential of new media. We argue that social media practices may foster new (more personal, intimate) forms of connectivity......, it ignores the communicative mundaneness of daily democracy. This paper accordingly in- vestigates and compares the ways in which members of parliament (MPs) in three European countries – Italy, Sweden and United Kingdom – utilize Twit- ter during off-peak periods, focusing on the extent to which social...

  12. Contribution of tropical cyclones to global rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khouakhi, Abdou; Villarini, Gabriele; Vecchi, Gabriel; Smith, James

    2016-04-01

    Rainfall associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) can have both devastating and beneficial impacts in different parts of the world. In this work, daily precipitation and historical six-hour best track TC datasets are used to quantify the contribution of TCs to global rainfall. We select 18607 rain gauge stations with at least 25 complete (at least 330 measurements per year) years between 1970 and 2014. We consider rainfall associated with TCs if the center of circulation of the storm passed within a given distance from the rain gauge and within a given time window. Spatial and temporal sensitivity analyses are performed with varying time windows (same day, ±1 day) and buffer radii (400 km and 500 km) around each rain gauge. Results highlight regional differences in TC-induced rainfall. The highest TC-induced precipitation totals (400 to 600+ mm/year) are prevalent along eastern Asia, western and northeastern Australia, and in the western Pacific islands. Stations along the southeast of the U.S. coast and surrounding the Gulf of Mexico receive up to 200 mm/year of TC rainfall. The highest annual fractional contributions of TCs to total rainfall (from 35 to 50%) are recorded in stations located in northwestern Australia, southeastern China, the northern Philippines and the southern Mexico peninsula. Seasonally, the highest proportions (40 to 50%) are recorded along eastern Australia and Mauritius in winter, and in eastern Asia and Mexico in summer and autumn. Analyses of the relative contribution of TCs to extreme rainfall using annual maximum (AM) and peaks-over-threshold (POT) approaches indicate notable differences among regions. The highest TC-AM rainfall proportions (45 to 60%) are found in stations located in Japan, eastern China, the Philippines, eastern and western Australia. Substantial contributions (25 to 40% of extreme rainfall) are also recorded in stations located along the U.S. East Coast, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Mexico peninsula. We find similar

  13. downburst wind with rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chao Zhou

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available There have been many reports recently on unanticipated galloping and collapse accidents of tower-line systems due to downburst wind with rainfall. Although wet downburst is characterized by high-velocity wind with rainfall, very little research work is involved with galloping of high-voltage transmission line induced by the downburst wind with rainfall. Thus, this article proposes a preliminary theoretical study aiming to provide an analytical model of the high-voltage transmission line subjected to the downburst wind with rainfall to explain some phenomena observed from field measurements. Through wind or rain–wind tunnel experiments, we obtained aerodynamic characteristics of the high-voltage conductor with different yaw angles and rainfall rates. Considering the variations of several factors such as wind velocity, rainfall rate, yaw angle, and attack angle, the proposed analytical model was created by finite element method and central differences with the obtained aerodynamic coefficients of the high-voltage conductor. The theoretical results accord well with the experimental data. The analytical model enables better comprehension of the galloping of the high-voltage transmission line subjected to the downburst wind with rainfall.

  14. Prediction Research of Climate Change Trends over North China in the Future 30 Years

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Yanxiang; YAN Jinghui; WU Tongwen; GUO Yufu; CHEN Lihua; WANG Jianping

    2008-01-01

    A simulation of climate change trends over North China in the past 50 years and future 30 years was performed with the actual greenhouse gas concentration and IPCC SRES B2 scenario concentration by IAP/LASG GOALS 4.0 (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land system coupled model), developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG),Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). In order to validate the model,the modern climate during 1951-2000 was first simulated by the GOALS model with the actual greenhouse gas concentration, and the simulation results were compared with observed data. The simulation results basically reproduce the lower temperature from the 1960s to mid-1970s and the warming from the 1980sfor the globe and Northern Hemisphere, and better the important cold (1950-1976) and warm (1977-2000)periods in the past 50 years over North China. The correlation coefficient is 0.34 between simulations and observations (significant at a more than 0.05 confidence level). The range of winter temperature departures for North China is between those for the eastern and western China's Mainland. Meanwhile, the summer precipitation trend turning around the 1980s is also successfully simulated. The climate change trends in the future 30 years were simulated with the CO2 concentration under IPCC SRES-B2 emission scenario.The results show that, in the future 30 years, winter temperature will keep a warming trend in North China and increase by about 2.5℃ relative to climate mean (1960-1990). Meanwhile, summer precipitation will obviously increase in North China and decrease in South China, displaying a south-deficit-north-excessive pattern of precipitation.

  15. Linking Land Surface Phenology and Growth Limiting Factor Shifts over the Past 30 Years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garonna, I.; Schenkel, D.; de Jong, R.; Schaepman, M. E.

    2015-12-01

    The study of global vegetation dynamics contributes to a better understanding of global change drivers and how these affect ecosystems and ecological diversity. Land-surface phenology (LSP) is a key response and feedback of vegetation to the climate system, and hence a parameter that needs to be accurately represented in terrestrial biosphere models [1]. However, the effects of climatic changes on LSP depend on the relative importance of climatic constraints in specific regions - which are not well understood at global scale. In this study, we analyzed a Phenology Reanalysis dataset [2] to evaluate shifts in three climatic drivers of phenology at global scale and over the last 30 years (1982-2012): incoming radiation, evaporative demand and minimum temperature. As a first step, we compared LAI as modeled from these three factors (LAIre) to remotely sensed observations of LSP (LAI3g, [3]) over the same time period. As a second step, we examined temporal trends in the climatic constraints at Start- and End- of the Growing Season. There was good agreement between phenology metrics as derived form LAI3g and LAIre over the last 30 years - thus providing confidence in the climatic constraints underlying the modeled data. Our analysis reveals inter-annual variation in the relative importance of the three climatic factors in limiting vegetation growth at Start- and End- of the Growing Season over the last 30 years. High northern latitudes, as well as northern Europe and central Asia, appear to have undergone significant changes in dominance between the three controls. We also find that evaporative demand has become increasingly limiting for growth in many parts of the world, in particular in South America and eastern Asia. [1] Richardson, A.D. et al. Global Change Biology 18, 566-584 (2012). [2] Stöckli, R. et al. J. Geophys. Res 116, G03020 (2011). [3] Zhu, Z. et al. Remote Sensing 5, 927-948 (2013).

  16. The biochemistry and nutrition group: 30 years of research in a developing country.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy Benshimol, A

    1996-12-01

    The most relevant results of 30 years of research from the Group of Biochemistry and Nutrition are presented. Research was focused mainly around the identification and detection of the heatlabile toxic factors present in legume seeds of human consumption, namely protease inhibitors and lectins with special emphasis on their isolation, molecular characterization, mechanistic and nutritional relevance of both protein groups. The antinutritional effect of the polyphenols, thermolabile compounds present in colored seeds, has also been studied as well as the impact of seed complex carbohydrates on the digestive process. PMID:9137631

  17. Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Over the Past 30 Years: A Global and Dynamic Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Liguang; Wang, Bin; Braun, Scott A.

    2006-01-01

    The hurricane season of 2005 was the busiest on record and Hurricane Katrina (2005) is believed to be the costliest hurricane in U. S. history. There are growing concerns regarding whether this increased tropical cyclone activity is a result of global warming, as suggested by Emanuel(2005) and Webster et al. (2005), or just a natural oscillation (Goldenberg et al. 2001). This study examines the changes in tropical cyclone intensity to see what were really responsible for the changes in tropical cyclone activity over the past 30 years. Since the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) warming also leads to the response of atmospheric circulation, which is not solely determined by the local SST warming, this study suggests that it is better to take the tropical cyclone activities in the North Atlantic (NA), western North Pacific (WNP) and eastern North Pacific (ENP) basins as a whole when searching for the influence of the global-scale SST warming on tropical cyclone intensity. Over the past 30 years, as the tropical SST increased by about 0.5 C, the linear trends indicate 6%, 16% and 15% increases in the overall average intensity and lifetime and the annual frequency. Our analysis shows that the increased annual destructiveness of tropical cyclones reported by Emanuel(2005) resulted mainly from the increases in the average lifetime and annual frequency in the NA basin and from the increases in the average intensity and lifetime in the WNP basin, while the annual destructiveness in the ENP basin generally decreased over the past 30 years. The changes in the proportion of intense tropical cyclones reported by Webster et a1 (2005) were due mainly to the fact that increasing tropical cyclones took the tracks that favor for the development of intense tropical cyclones in the NA and WNP basins over the past 30 years. The dynamic influence associated with the tropical SST warming can lead to the impact of global warming on tropical cyclone intensity that may be very

  18. Orbital Extension of a Giant Ethmoidal Sinus Osteoma in a 30-Year-old Female

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esmat Karbassi

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Osteoma is a benign tumor rarely found in the paranasal sinuses.   Case Report: A 30-year-old female presented with an 8-month history of proptosis of the right eye that was progressing slowly. She was diagnosed with ethmoid osteoma and managed with collaborative surgery at the ophthalmology and otolaryngology departments. After surgery, the patient suffered visual loss that was managed medically. The surgical steps and protocol used for safe removal are discussed in the report.    Conclusion: Management of a giaint osteoma extending to orbital tissue needs meticulous dissection through open approach and collaborative surgery by otolaryngologist and ophtalmologist

  19. Natural Products as Sources of New Drugs over the 30 Years from 1981 to 2010†

    OpenAIRE

    Newman, David J.; Cragg, Gordon M.

    2012-01-01

    This review is an updated and expanded version of the three prior reviews that were published in this journal in 1997, 2003 and 2007. In the case of all approved therapeutic agents, the time frame has been extended to cover the 30 years from January 1st 1981 to December 31st 2010 for all diseases world-wide, and from 1950 (earliest so far identified) to December 2010 for all approved antitumor drugs world-wide. We have continued to utilize our secondary subdivision of a “natural product mimic...

  20. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-01-01

    Tropical rainfall affects the lives and economics of a majority of the Earth's population. Tropical rain systems, such as hurricanes, typhoons, and monsoons, are crucial to sustaining the livelihoods of those living in the tropics. Excess rainfall can cause floods and great property and crop damage, whereas too little rainfall can cause drought and crop failure. The latent heat release during the process of precipitation is a major source of energy that drives the atmospheric circulation. This latent heat can intensify weather systems, affecting weather thousands of kilometers away, thus making tropical rainfall an important indicator of atmospheric circulation and short-term climate change. Tropical forests and the underlying soils are major sources of many of the atmosphere's trace constituents. Together, the forests and the atmosphere act as a water-energy regulating system. Most of the rainfall is returned to the atmosphere through evaporation and transpiration, and the atmospheric trace constituents take part in the recycling process. Hence, the hydrological cycle provides a direct link between tropical rainfall and the global cycles of carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur, all important trace materials for the Earth's system. Because rainfall is such an important component in the interactions between the ocean, atmosphere, land, and the biosphere, accurate measurements of rainfall are crucial to understanding the workings of the Earth-atmosphere system. The large spatial and temporal variability of rainfall systems, however, poses a major challenge to estimating global rainfall. So far, there has been a lack of rain gauge networks, especially over the oceans, which points to satellite measurement as the only means by which global observation of rainfall can be made. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), jointly sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) of the United States and the National Space Development Agency (NASDA) of

  1. Rainfall triggered dynamics of Aedes mosquito aggressiveness

    OpenAIRE

    P.I. Ndiaye; Bicout, D J; Mondet, Bernard; Sabatier, P.

    2006-01-01

    Inspired by Davidson method of estimating daily survivals of a structureless population of mosquitoes, we present a model which describes the behavior of floodwater mosquitoes in terms of emergence functions following a rainfall event, blood feeding frequency and parous stages, and survival at various stages. As a generalization of the Davidson formula, we have developed an approach for dealing with the dynamics of structured population of mosquitoes, and derived various formulas allowing ass...

  2. What Can We Learn About Glaciers and Ice Sheets From 30 Years of Landsat Imagery?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardner, A. S.; Scambos, T.; Fahnestock, M. A.; Moholdt, G.; Nilsson, J.

    2015-12-01

    Glacier and ice sheets are known to be rapidly changing and currently account for two thirds of observed sea level rise. Attributing the causes of the rapid decline in land ice requires separation of mass change processes, i.e. accumulation of precipitation, meltwater runoff, and solid ice discharge. Here we examine a 30 year record of Landsat imagery to determine trends in glacier velocity at a global scale in an attempt to identify anomalies in glacier flow that are contributing to changes in land ice mass. The Landsat archive represents a treasure trove of information with hundreds of thousands of images acquired over glaciers and ice sheets during the past 30 years. Gleaning useful and consistent surface displacement information from a multiple sensor archive that is heavily contaminated by cloud, saturated images, poorly resolved sensor geometry, and data gaps has proved challenging. Temporal stacking of displacement fields (Dehecq et al., 2015) and correcting for unresolved topography (Roseanau et al., 2012) have been shown to greatly improve derived velocities. Here we present results from a global processing of the complete Landsat archive for information on glacier surface displacements. We highlight patterns of coherent regional change as well as well as rapid basin-scale changes in glacier flow.

  3. Chernobyl: 30 years after - Proceedings of the technical meeting of the French Society of Radiation Protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The French Society of Radiation Protection (SFRP) organized a technical meeting on the present day situation of the Chernobyl site, 30 years after the accident of the nuclear power plant. The review deals with the situation of the facility and of its safety works, the environment, the management of wastes, the workers and populations exposure, and the health monitoring of the exposed populations. This document brings together the abstracts and the presentations (slides) of the different talks given at the meeting: 1 - The main highlights 30 years after the Chernobyl accident (Didier CHAMPION, SFRP); 2 - Circumstances, progress and consequences of the Chernobyl accident - Lessons and experience feedback for the other RBMK reactors (Michel CHOUHA, IRSN); 3 - Chernobyl, a confinement arch for 100 years (Patrick CHABRIER, Thomas CHAUVEAU - BOUYGUES); 4 - The reactor wastes management and the dismantling operations (Guy DAMETTE - IRSN); 5 - Environment contamination in the vicinity of the site (Yves THIRY - ANDRA); 6 - Impact of the accident on agriculture (Vanessa DURAND - IRSN); 7 - The fate of remediation wastes (Francois BESNUS - IRSN); 8 - Chernobyl fallouts in France (Philippe RENAUD - IRSN); 9 - The ecological consequences of the Chernobyl accident (Christelle ADAM-GUILLERMIN - IRSN); 10 - Results of liquidators and populations exposure (Florence MENETRIER - CEA); 11 - Thyroid cancers monitoring in the Chernobyl area and the role of modifying genetic factors (Fabienne LESUEUR - Institut Curie); 12 - Results of the Chernobyl accident health impact studies (Dominique LAURIER - IRSN); 13 - Impact on populations living condition (Thierry SCHNEIDER - CEPN); 14 - Molecular signature of radiation induced thyroid tumors (Sylvie CHEVILLARD - CEA)

  4. Associations of education with 30 year life course blood pressure trajectories: Framingham Offspring Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao Yongling

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Education is inversely associated with cardiovascular disease incidence in developed countries. Blood pressure may be an explanatory biological mechanism. However few studies have investigated educational gradients in longitudinal blood pressure trajectories, particularly over substantial proportions of the life course. Study objectives were to determine whether low education was associated with increased blood pressure from multiple longitudinal assessments over 30 years. Furthermore, we aimed to separate antecedent effects of education, and other related factors, that might have caused baseline differences in blood pressure, from potential long-term effects of education on post-baseline blood pressure changes. Methods The study examined 3890 participants of the Framingham Offspring Study (mean age 36.7 years, 52.0% females at baseline from 1971 through 2001 at up to 7 separate examinations using multivariable mixed linear models. Results Mixed linear models demonstrated that mean systolic blood pressure (SBP over 30 years was higher for participants with ≤12 vs. ≥17 years education after adjusting for age (3.26 mmHg, 95% CI: 1.46, 5.05 in females, 2.26 mmHg, 95% CI: 0.87, 3.66 in males. Further adjustment for conventional covariates (antihypertensive medication, smoking, body mass index and alcohol reduced differences in females and males (2.86, 95% CI: 1.13, 4.59, and 1.25, 95% CI: -0.16, 2.66 mmHg, respectively. Additional analyses adjusted for baseline SBP, to evaluate if there may be educational contributions to post-baseline SBP. In analyses adjusted for age and baseline SBP, females with ≤12 years education had 2.69 (95% CI: 1.09, 4.30 mmHg higher SBP over follow-up compared with ≥17 years education. Further adjustment for aforementioned covariates slightly reduced effect strength (2.53 mmHg, 95% CI: 0.93, 4.14. Associations were weaker in males, where those with ≤12 years education had 1.20 (95% CI: -0

  5. 30-year changes in the nitrogen inputs to the Yangtze River Basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    To understand both spatial and temporal changes in nitrogen inputs to the Yangtze River Basin (YRB), we collected decadal statistical data for 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2010 at the county level and the annual statistical data for the period 1980–2010 at the provincial level of China. Based on these datasets, we estimated the nitrogen inputs, including the atmospheric deposition, synthetic N fertilizer, biological N fixation and recycling reactive N inputs, such as N from human waste and animal excrement, crop residue recycled as manure, and N emission from burning crop residue. The results showed that, geographically, the variation of the total amount of N input during the last 30 years (δN = N2010 – N1980) has increased about 0–50 kg ha−1 over most of the area of the YRB. Moreover, it has increased dramatically by about 50–300 kg ha−1 in the Sichuan Basin, the Han River Basin, the Poyang and Dongting lake basins, and the Yangtze Delta as well. Temporally, the total amount of N inputs to the whole YRB was approximately 16.4 Tg N in 2010, which was a 2.0-fold increase over 1980. It increased dramatically in the 1990s and then stabilized at a high level in the 2000s. The major N inputs were human and animal wastes as well as synthetic fertilizers, but they varied regionally. Animal waste was the major input to the water source regions, and its contribution percentage gradually decreased from upper to lower reaches. In contrast, the contribution of N fertilizer increased from upper to lower reaches, and became the major input to the middle and lower reaches. The total N inputs changed slightly in the upper reaches, but increased largely in the middle reaches in the last 30 years. However, in the lower reaches, it had increased remarkably before 2000, and then tended to decrease in the last decade. Finally, the atmospheric N deposition over the basin increased continuously in the last 30 years. (paper)

  6. Treatment outcomes, quality of life, and impact of hemophilia on young adults (aged 18-30 years) with hemophilia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witkop, Michelle; Guelcher, Christine; Forsyth, Angela; Hawk, Sarah; Curtis, Randall; Kelley, Laureen; Frick, Neil; Rice, Michelle; Rosu, Gabriela; Cooper, David L

    2015-12-01

    The Hemophilia Experiences, Results and Opportunities (HERO) initiative assessed psychosocial issues reported by people with moderate to severe hemophilia and was led by a multidisciplinary international advisory board. This analysis reports data from young adult respondents (aged 18-30 years), including both US and overall global (including US respondents) results, and investigates treatment outcomes, quality of life, and impacts of hemophilia on relationships. More young adults in HERO received prophylaxis than on-demand treatment, although a majority reported not using factor products exactly as prescribed, and 50% of global respondents and 26% of US respondents reported issues with access to factor replacement therapy in the previous 5 years. Many young adults with hemophilia reported comorbidities, including bone/skeletal arthritis, chronic pain, and viral infections, and nearly half of young adults reported anxiety/depression. Most reported pain interference with daily activities in the past 4 weeks, although a majority reported participating in lower-risk activities and approximately half in intermediate-risk activities. Most young adults were very or quite satisfied with the support of partners/spouses, family, and friends, although roughly one-third reported that hemophilia affected their ability to develop close relationships with a partner. A majority of young adults reported that hemophilia has had a negative impact on employment, and 62% of global respondents and 78% of US respondents were employed at least part-time. Together these data highlight the psychosocial issues experienced by young adults with hemophilia and suggest that increased focus on these issues may improve comprehensive care during the transition to adulthood.

  7. The effect of supplementary calcium on blood pressure in healthy adult women aged 18-30 years in Tehran, Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Entezari, Mohammad Hassan

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Cardiovascular disease is the major cause of mortality in developed countries and has an increasing trend in developing countries. There are some evidences that calcium supplementation may decrease blood pressure and consequently cardiovascular disease, but they are not conclusive and there is no agreement in this respect. The aim of the present study was to assess the effect of supplementary calcium on systolic and diastolic blood pressure in healthy adult women aged 18–30 years. Materials and Methods: Seventy-five normotensive volunteers were randomly divided into two groups, the treatment group received 1000 mg/day calcium (four doses of 625 mg calcium carbonate) for 1 month and the control group received placebo (dextrose). Systolic and diastolic blood pressure was determined before and after intervention in supine position after 10 min of rest. Results: The mean daily calcium intake from food was 773.9 mg in treatment and 721 mg in control group (no significant difference) but in both the groups dietary calcium intake was less than the recommended dietary allowance: After calcium supplementation, the mean change of systolic blood pressure was not significant in the two groups, but diastolic blood pressure reduced in treatment group and increased in control group (−4.9 vs 2.6 mmHg) (P < 0.05). Conclusions: These results suggest that, calcium supplementation does not have any effect on systolic blood pressure of our volunteers but can decrease diastolic blood pressure significantly and therefore it seems that calcium supplementation may be useful for people with increased diastolic blood pressure, especially for those who receive less calcium than recommended dietary allowance. PMID:26430694

  8. Post-gastrectomy patients need to be followed up for 20-30 years

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Frank I. Tovey; Michael Hobsley

    2000-01-01

    AIM To investigate the incidence andmanagement of nutritional deficiencies followinga gastrectomy.METHODS A gastrectomy population of 227patients in London was followed up for 30 years after operation to detect and treat nutritional deficiencies.RESULTS By the end of the first decade iron deficiency was the commonest problem. Vitamin B12 deficiency became more important in the second decade. During the third decade both reached equal prevalence, being found in some 90% of the female and 70% of the male residual population. Vitamin D deficiency was a lesser problem, reaching its climax in the second decade. Overall, all women fared worse than men.CONCLUSION The importance of long-term follow-up of gastrectomy patients for iron,Vitamin B12 and Vitamin D deficiencies is emphasised.

  9. Human Papillomavirus Assays and Cytology in Primary Cervical Screening of Women Aged 30 Years and Above

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rebolj, Matejka; Bonde, Jesper; Preisler, Sarah;

    2016-01-01

    In women aged ≥30 years, Human Papillomavirus testing will replace cytology for primary cervical screening. We compared Hybrid Capture 2 (HC2), cobas, CLART, and APTIMA HPV assays with cytology on 2869 SurePath samples from women undergoing routine screening at 30-65 years in Copenhagen, Denmark...... (positive test results without ≥CIN3) varied between 3.3% with cytology and 14.9% with cobas. All HPV assays led to significantly more false-positive tests, whereas compared to HC2 cobas and CLART were associated with a significantly higher and APTIMA with a significantly lower proportion. Detection of CIN1...... was particularly increased for the three DNA assays. With APTIMA combined with cytological triage, about 20% more women were referred for colposcopy than with cytology screening. With the three DNA assays, the increase was ≥50%. The number of women with repeated testing was twice as high with APTIMA and almost...

  10. Neurological effects of white spirit: Contribution of animal studies during a 30-year period

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Gunnar Damgård; Lund, Søren Peter; Ladefoged, Ole

    2006-01-01

    , but the neurophysiological tests showed adverse effects at this level. Fourth, neurophysiological methods may be more sensitive than histopathological, neurobehavioural and neurochemical methods. Overall, white spirit with a high and a low content of aromatics showed no overt difference in long-term effects in animals......Numerous studies have suggested that long-term occupational exposure to white spirit may cause chronic toxic encephalopathy (WHO 1996). This review summarizes the chronic nervous system effects of white spirit in animal studies during a 30-year period. First, routine histopathology was consistently...... unable to reveal adverse peripheral or central nervous system effects after inhalation of white spirit. Second, neurobehavioural studies in animals showed no adverse effect after inhalation of white spirit with a high content of aromatics in contrast to what was found with products with a low content...

  11. A case of lupus vulgaris with rare localization diagnosed 30 years after onset.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laudańska, H; Reduta, T; Zalewski, G; Chodynicka, B

    2011-01-01

    Cutaneous tuberculosis (tuberculosis cutis) is one of the extrapulmonary forms of tuberculosis, which may affect the skin only or co-exist with tuberculosis of other organs, particularly the lungs. We describe a case of lupus vulgaris in a 72-year-old male patient with a single lesion localized on his lower extremity, developing for 30 years before correct diagnosis and previously treated with topical steroids. Bacillus infection in other organs was not detected. Diagnosis of tuberculosis was made based on personal history, clinical picture, hypersensitivity to tuberculin, histopathology and polymerase chain reaction. A multidrug therapy with rifampicin, isoniazid and pyrazinamide resulted in regression of the lesion. The common lack of knowledge about the clinical picture of cutaneous tuberculosis causes its late diagnosis and treatment.

  12. [Maternal mortality in Brazil: what has the scientific literature shown in the last 30 years?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morse, Marcia Lait; Fonseca, Sandra Costa; Barbosa, Mariane Doelinger; Calil, Manuele Bonatto; Eyer, Fernanda Pinella Carvalhal

    2011-04-01

    The aim of this study was to analyze maternal mortality in Brazil in the last 30 years, by means of a literature review. The authors performed an electronic search of scientific articles from 1980 to 2010 in LILACS and MEDLINE and found 486 abstracts, of which 50 articles were selected. Studies showed a decrease in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR), although varying across regions of the country. A few articles evaluated maternal mortality factors, identifying social inequalities associated with skin color and schooling. There was persistent underreporting of maternal deaths and inadequate completion of death certificates. Direct obstetric causes were the most frequent, mainly hypertensive diseases of pregnancy. Analysis of avoidability revealed deficiencies in prenatal and childbirth care. Despite the relevance of maternal mortality in Brazil, there are few studies on the subject. Although MMR has decreased, it is still above the desired levels. Improvements are thus needed in the quality of prenatal and perinatal care.

  13. A gridded hourly rainfall dataset for the UK applied to a national physically-based modelling system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Elizabeth; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Quinn, Niall; Freer, Jim; Coxon, Gemma; Woods, Ross; Bates, Paul; Fowler, Hayley

    2016-04-01

    An hourly gridded rainfall product has great potential for use in many hydrological applications that require high temporal resolution meteorological data. One important example of this is flood risk management, with flooding in the UK highly dependent on sub-daily rainfall intensities amongst other factors. Knowledge of sub-daily rainfall intensities is therefore critical to designing hydraulic structures or flood defences to appropriate levels of service. Sub-daily rainfall rates are also essential inputs for flood forecasting, allowing for estimates of peak flows and stage for flood warning and response. In addition, an hourly gridded rainfall dataset has significant potential for practical applications such as better representation of extremes and pluvial flash flooding, validation of high resolution climate models and improving the representation of sub-daily rainfall in weather generators. A new 1km gridded hourly rainfall dataset for the UK has been created by disaggregating the daily Gridded Estimates of Areal Rainfall (CEH-GEAR) dataset using comprehensively quality-controlled hourly rain gauge data from over 1300 observation stations across the country. Quality control measures include identification of frequent tips, daily accumulations and dry spells, comparison of daily totals against the CEH-GEAR daily dataset, and nearest neighbour checks. The quality control procedure was validated against historic extreme rainfall events and the UKCP09 5km daily rainfall dataset. General use of the dataset has been demonstrated by testing the sensitivity of a physically-based hydrological modelling system for Great Britain to the distribution and rates of rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. Of the sensitivity tests undertaken, the largest improvements in model performance were seen when an hourly gridded rainfall dataset was combined with potential evapotranspiration disaggregated to hourly intervals, with 61% of catchments showing an increase in NSE between

  14. A Bibliographic Study of Drug Abuse Research during last 30 years in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Afarin Rahimi Movaghar

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available In the last decades, the produced science has been significantly increased in the field of drug abuse, globally. The objective of this study was to assess the bibliographic aspects of the science produced in Iran on drug abuse in the last 30 years. All scientific papers published from Iran in a 30-year period (1973-2002 in national as well as international scientific journals were assessed for this study. These papers are indexed in the database for Iranian Mental Health Researches, called IranPsych. The total number of 218 papers on drug and drug abuse were found and assessed by six psychiatrists and psychologists with good inter-rater reliability. About half of these papers were published in the last two years. About half of the papers have been published in the Persian medical journals. One-third have been published in international journals. Overall, 449 authors contributed to the 218 published papers from whom 80 percent had only one paper. Half of the papers were written by only 15 authors (3.3 percent. Most of the authors were Medical Doctors and from Medical Universities. None of the researches was received financial support from pharmacologic industries. This study shows that in recent years, the increase in the publication of the researches conducted on drug abuse has been significant. Nevertheless, according to the high prevalence of drug abuse problem in Iran and improvements in the scientific, as well as executive structures, the whole scientific output is insignificant. The findings guide us to a more systematic approach toward training of researchers and promotion of resaerch in this area. Moreover, more active involvement of social scientists and publication of their research findings are recommended.

  15. Immunity of patients surviving 20 to 30 years after allogeneic or syngeneic bone marrow transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storek, J; Joseph, A; Espino, G; Dawson, M A; Douek, D C; Sullivan, K M; Flowers, M E; Martin, P; Mathioudakis, G; Nash, R A; Storb, R; Appelbaum, F R; Maloney, D G

    2001-12-15

    The duration of immunodeficiency following marrow transplantation is not known. Questionnaires were used to study the infection rates in 72 patients surviving 20 to 30 years after marrow grafting. Furthermore, in 33 of the 72 patients and in 16 donors (siblings who originally donated the marrow) leukocyte subsets were assessed by flow cytometry. T-cell receptor excision circles (TRECs), markers of T cells generated de novo, were quantitated by real-time polymerase chain reaction. Immunoglobulin G(2) (IgG(2)) and antigen-specific IgG levels were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Infections diagnosed more than [corrected] 15 years after transplantation occurred rarely. The average rate was 0.07 infections per patient-year (one infection every 14 years), excluding respiratory tract infections, gastroenteritis, lip sores, and hepatitis C. The counts of circulating monocytes, natural killer cells, B cells, CD4 T cells, and CD8 T cells in the patients were not lower than in the donors. The counts of TREC(+) CD4 T cells in transplant recipients younger than age 18 years (at the time of transplantation) were not different from the counts in their donors. In contrast, the counts of TREC(+) CD4 T cells were lower in transplant recipients age 18 years or older, even in those with no history of clinical extensive chronic graft-versus-host disease, compared with their donors. The levels of total IgG(2) and specific IgG against Haemophilus influenzae and Streptococcus pneumoniae were similar in patients and donors. Overall, the immunity of patients surviving 20 to 30 years after transplantation is normal or near normal. Patients who received transplants in adulthood have a clinically insignificant deficiency of de novo-generated CD4 T cells, suggesting that in these patients the posttransplantation thymic insufficiency may not be fully reversible. PMID:11739150

  16. Treatment results of glioblastoma during the last 30 years in a single institute.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumabe, Toshihiro; Saito, Ryuta; Kanamori, Masayuki; Chonan, Masashi; Mano, Yui; Shibahara, Ichiyo; Kawaguchi, Tomohiro; Kato, Hideaki; Yamashita, Yoji; Sonoda, Yukihiko; Kawagishi, Jun; Jokura, Hidefumi; Watanabe, Mika; Katakura, Ryuichi; Kayama, Takamasa; Tominaga, Teiji

    2013-01-01

    Treatment results of glioblastoma (GB) during the last 30 years in Tohoku University were analyzed to identify any improvements in patient outcome in all 332 histologically proven cases of newly diagnosed GB treated consecutively in our department between 1982 and 2011. These 30 years was divided into 5 treatment eras, Group 1 (1982-1988, without preoperative evaluation by magnetic resonance [MR] imaging, n = 46), Group 2 (1989-1996, with preoperative MR imaging, n = 41), Group 3 (1997-1999, additionally underwent intraoperative functional brain mapping and neuronavigation system, n = 38), Group 4 (2000-August 2006, underwent 30 Gy of whole brain radiation followed by 30 Gy of extended local accelerated hyperfractionated radiation therapy, n = 96), and Group 5 (September 2006-2011, adjuvant usage of temozolomide [TMZ], n = 111). Overall survival (OS) was calculated from the date of surgery to the death from any cause. The median survival time/2-year OS/5-year OS of Groups 1 to 5 were 10.7 months/10.9%/0%, 17.3 months/26.2%/6.9%, 15.9 months/23.7%/5.3%, 20.1 months/34.8%/15.5%, and 20.9 months/45.5%/19.7%. The prognosis for patients with GB improved significantly after the introduction of MR imaging. Younger GB, defined as patients aged below 60 years, or total tumor resection with all ages in Group 5 had 5-year 0S of 31.0% and 30.1%, respectively. The prognosis of GB was improved significantly after the introduction of TMZ for elderly GB, recursive partitioning analysis class 5, or totally resected GB. Introduction of MR imaging and TMZ, and total resection of the tumor were important in the improvement of outcome for patients with GB.

  17. Variability of the Surface Meteorological Fields over Eurasia for the Recent 30 Years

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    On the basis of the Japanese reanalysis (JRA25) dataset (1979-2008), linear trends, interannual to decadal variability of the sea level pressure (SLP), surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation fields over the Eurasian region have been studied. For the recent 30 years there are only significant positive linear trends of SAT in the northwestern part of the Eurasia/eastern Asia in winter and central Europe in summer. Areas with significant negative trends of SAT are absent. For precipitation field there are no significant tendencies except for the significantly positive area over England both in winter and in summer time. In winter, there are two areas with the opposite SLP tendencies: insignificant negative (to the north of 45-50N) and significant positive (to the south of 45-50N) one. These trends could be accompanied by the corresponding tendencies bee-hive reproduction and honey production in different regions of Ukraine. Space-time patterns of the first, second and third EOF of the fields under study are mainly determined by the NAO and in the less extent by the SO (only in spring-summer). It was found that the leading modes become more contributive over the Eurasia for the last 30 years comparing with NCEP data for the previous period (1950-2001). It could imply that an internal signal of the ocean-atmosphere system, which determines space-time patterns over Eurasia, has arisen. Intercomparison of the space-time EOF patterns between JRA25 and NCEP (1950-2001) re-analyses show that in autumn, winter and spring the first 3-4 corresponding time coefficients stay at the same order (coefficient correlations between them are significant), while in summer such correspondence in order of modes is changed. (author)

  18. RAINFALL ANALYSIS IN KLANG RIVER BASIN USING CONTINUOUS WAVELET TRANSFORM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Celso A. G. Santos

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The rainfall characteristics within Klang River basin is analyzed by the continuous wavelet transform using monthly rainfall data (1997–2009 from a raingauge and also using daily rainfall data (1998–2013 from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM. The wavelet power spectrum showed that some frequency components were presented within the rainfall time series, but the observed time series is short to provide accurate information, thus the daily TRMM rainfall data were used. In such analysis, two main frequency components, i.e., 6 and 12 months, showed to be present during the entire period of 16 years. Such semiannual and annual frequencies were confirmed by the global wavelet power spectra. Finally, the modulation in the 8–16-month and 256– 512-day bands were examined by an average of all scales between 8 and 16 months, and 256 and 512 days, respectively, giving a measure of the average monthly/daily variance versus time, where the periods with low or high variance could be identified.

  19. Are extreme rainfall intensities more frequent? Analysis of trends in rainfall patterns relevant to urban drainage systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Toffol, S; Laghari, A N; Rauch, W

    2009-01-01

    The fact that climate change is affecting the intensity and frequency of rainfall is well accepted in the scientific community. This is backed by a multitude of reports on the basis of daily rainfall series analysis; however, little research is available for short duration intensities. Due to its significant influence on the behaviour of urban drainage, it is critical to investigate the changes in short duration rainfall intensities. In this study different intensities relevant for the urban drainage and the total rainfall per rain event are analysed. The trend is investigated using the Mann-Kendall test. The rainfall series analysed are from the alpine region Tyrol. The results present differences depending on the duration of the intensity and the series considered, however an increase in the number of extreme events is detectable for short durations for the most series.

  20. Trends in rainfall erosivity (1955-2006) over the Ebro basin; Tendencias en la erosividad de la lluvia (1955-2006) en la cuenca del Ebro

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Angulo Martinez, M.; Vicente Serrano, S. M.; Begueria, S.

    2009-07-01

    Rainfall is one of the main factors affecting soil erosion. This effect is summarized in the concept or rainfall erosivity which involves the drop size distribution and kinetic energy of an event, its duration and intensity, and the runoff that generates. To calculate rainfall erosivity several indices can be applied. The most extensively used is the R factor of the Revised Universal soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). To compute this index continuous rainfall data are needed. This kind of data is difficult to obtain with a good spatial and temporal coverage. In this work, daily rainfall records have been converted into daily rainfall erosivity data. For this objective, we used the Richardson et al. (1983) exponential relationship between rainfall volume and rainfall erosivity to create the Daily Rainfall Erosivity Model (DREM). (Author) 4 refs.

  1. Antihistamines and driving ability: Evidence from 30 years Dutch on-road driving research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verster, J.C.; Van De Loo, A.J.A.E.; Garssen, J.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Since all antihistamines are capable of crossing the blood-brain barrier, they may also cause sedation which may impair daily activities such as driving a car. The purpose of this review was to examine the effects of antihistamines on driving ability. Method: A literature search revealed

  2. National Library of Medicine Celebrates 30 Years of Progress and Charts the Future | NIH MedlinePlus the Magazine

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... of this page please turn JavaScript on. National Library of Medicine Celebrates 30 Years of Progress and ... me to imagine a world without the National Library of Medicine." Photo courtesy of NIH NLM Director ...

  3. A 35-40% Likelihood of a Highly Damaging Tokyo Earthquake in Next 30 Years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, R. S.; Toda, S.; Parsons, T.; Bozkurt, S. B.

    2005-12-01

    Tokyo and its outlying cities are home to one-quarter of Japan's 127 million people. Highly destructive earthquakes struck the capital in 1703, 1855 and 1923, the last of which took 105,000 lives. Reoccurrence of any of these shocks today would cost about one trillion dollars, of which perhaps 10% is insured. Fueled by Tokyo's rich data trove but hindered by its complexity, we carried out a new hazard assessment. We used the prehistoric record of great earthquakes preserved in uplifted marine terraces and tsunami deposits (17 M~8 shocks in the past 7,000 years), historical shaking (10,000 intensity observations in the past 400 years), the dense modern seismic network (300,000 earthquakes in the past 30 years), and the world's best geodetic array (150 GPS vectors spanning the past 10 years). We propose that a dislodged block of the Pacific plate is jammed between the Pacific, Philippine Sea and Eurasian plates beneath Tokyo, and controls much of Tokyo's seismic behavior for M≤7.5 shocks, including the damaging 1855 M~7.3 Ansei-Edo shock. On the basis of frequency-magnitude curves, earthquakes similar to the Ansei-Edo event should be quite frequent (25-35% likelihood in an average 30-yr period), and so such events dominate the combined probabilities. In contrast, our renewal model for the great 1703 and 1923 type plate boundary shocks yields a ~1% probability for the next 30 yr, with a time-averaged 30-yr probability of ~8%. The resulting net likelihood for severe shaking in Tokyo, Kawasaki, and Yokohama for the next 30 years is 25%-40%, but how can it be validated? The long historical record in Kanto affords a rare opportunity to calculate the probability of shaking in an alternative manner, based almost exclusively on intensity observations. This approach permits robust estimates for the spatial distribution of shaking, even for sites with few observations. The resulting probability of severe shaking over an average 30-yr period is ~35% in the Tokyo, Kawasaki

  4. Changes in Extreme Events as Simulated by a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model for the Next 20-30 Years over China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Ji-Yun; SHI Ying; GAO Xue-Jie

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, the changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over the next 20-30 years (2021-2050) in relative to the present day (1986-2005) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario are analyzed based on a high-resolution climate change simulation performed by a regional climate model (the Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) RegCM3). The extreme indices of summer days (SU), frost days (FD), and growing season length (GSL) for temperature and simple daily intensity index (SDII), number of days with precipitation ≥10 mm d-1 (R10), and consecutive dry days (CDD) for precipitation are used as the indicators of the extremes. The results show that the indices simulated by RegCM3 in the present day show good agreement with the observed. A general increase in SU, a decrease in FD, and an increase in GSL are found to occur in the next 20-30 years over China. A general increase in SDII, an increase in R10 over western China, and a decrease in R10 in north, northeast, and central China are simulated by the model. Changes in CDD are characterized by a decrease in the north and an increase in the south and the Tibetan Plateau.

  5. Spatial Variability of Rainfall

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, N.E.; Pedersen, Lisbeth

    2005-01-01

    As a part of a Local Area Weather Radar (LAWR) calibration exercise 15 km south of Århus, Denmark, the variability in accumulated rainfall within a single radar pixel (500 by 500 m) was measured using nine high-resolution rain gauges. The measured values indicate up to a 100% variation between...

  6. A 30 Year Old Man with Fever and Indolent Soft Tissue Masses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wissam Zaeeter

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Multifocal Skeletal Tuberculosis (MSTB is a rare presentation of skeletal tuberculosis. The indolent nature of this condition often leads to delayed or missed diagnosis, sometimes with devastating consequences for the patient. In order to provide meaningful clinical information and to highlight pitfalls in diagnosis of MFST, we present a case of MSTB. A review of this condition is included for broader coverage. Approach: A 30 year old immune-competent male patient with a 1 year history of indolent soft tissue masses on the chest wall overlying the sternum and the ribs. CAT scan of the chest showed multiple lytic bony lesions involving the ribs, sternum and vertebrae that mimicked metastatic cancer. Fine needle aspiration of the lesion revealed AFB and granulomas. Culture of the aspirated material grew mycobacterium tuberculosis and a diagnosis of MSTB was made. Results: A diagnosis of MSTB was made and anti-tuberculous therapy was initiated. Conclusion: This case indicated that multi-focal skeletal tuberculosis may develop in immune-competent patients without overt pulmonary involvement. From our experience along with previously reported data, MSTB should be suspected in patients from endemic areas who present with multiple skeletal bony lesions. Appropriate management and therapy are essentials for cure and to prevent complications.

  7. Food irradiation - after 30 years, where do we stand: A government perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The use of irradiation to improve the safety, protect the nutritional benefits, and preserve the quality of fresh and processed foods is a well established and proven technology. Over the past 30 years, the United States Government has invested in the science of confirm safety and in the technology to show application. The United States Department of Agriculture and the Food and Drug Administration have approved sources of ionizing radiation for the treatment of foods, and their application to most meats, fruits, vegetables, and spices. Despite the value of this technology to the food industry and to the health and welfare of the public, only minimal application of this technology occurs. This underscorces the importantce of increasing the public's understanding of radiation risks relative to other hazards. Accordingly, the Committee on Interagency Radiation Research and Policy Coordination of the Executive Office of the President has made recommendations for the creation of a centralized National Radiation Information Center that would work closely with Federal departments and agencies in responding to public queries about radiation issues and Federal programs. (orig.)

  8. Treatment of rectal prolapse in children with cow milk injection sclerotherapy:30-year experience

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Mirko (Z)ganjer; Ante Cizmic; Irenej Cigit; Bo(z)idar (Z)upancic; Igor Bumci; Ljiljana Popovic; Antun Kljenak

    2008-01-01

    AIM:To evaluate the role and our experience of injecti-on sclerotherapy with cow milk in the treatment of rectal prolapse in children.METHODS:In the last 30 years (1976-2006) we made 100 injections of sclerotherapy with cow milk in 86 chil-dren.In this study we included children who failed to respond to conservative treatment and we perform ope-rative treatment.RESULTS:In our study we included 86 children and in all of the patients we perform cow milk injection sclerot-herapy.In 95.3% (82 children) of patients sclerotherapy was successful.In 4 (4.7%) patients we had recurrent rectal prolapse where we performed operative treatment.Below 4 years we had 62 children (72%) and 24 older children (28%).In children who needed operative trea-tment we performed Thiersch operation and without any complications.CONCLUSION:Injection sclerotherapy with cow milk for treatment rectal prolapse in children is a simple and effective treatment for rectal prolapse with minimal com-plications.

  9. The SLC28 (CNT) and SLC29 (ENT) nucleoside transporter families: a 30-year collaborative odyssey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, James D

    2016-06-15

    Specialized nucleoside transporter (NT) proteins are required for passage of nucleosides and hydrophilic nucleoside analogues across biological membranes. Physiologic nucleosides serve as central salvage metabolites in nucleotide biosynthesis, and nucleoside analogues are used as chemotherapeutic agents in the treatment of cancer and antiviral diseases. The nucleoside adenosine modulates numerous cellular events via purino-receptor cell signalling pathways. Human NTs are divided into two structurally unrelated protein families: the SLC28 concentrative nucleoside transporter (CNT) family and the SLC29 equilibrative nucleoside transporter (ENT) family. Human CNTs are inwardly directed Na(+)-dependent nucleoside transporters found predominantly in intestinal and renal epithelial and other specialized cell types. Human ENTs mediate bidirectional fluxes of purine and pyrimidine nucleosides down their concentration gradients and are ubiquitously found in most, possibly all, cell types. Both protein families are evolutionarily old: CNTs are present in both eukaryotes and prokaryotes; ENTs are widely distributed in mammalian, lower vertebrate and other eukaryote species. This mini-review describes a 30-year collaboration with Professor Stephen Baldwin to identify and understand the structures and functions of these physiologically and clinically important transport proteins. PMID:27284054

  10. Radiation induced skin cancer the chest wall 30 years later from breast cancer operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miyamoto, Kouji; Togawa, Tamotsu; Hasegawa, Takeshi; Matsunami, Hidetoshi; Ikeda, Tsuneko [Matsunami General Hospital, Kasamatsu, Gifu (Japan); Matsuo, Youichi

    1998-10-01

    This paper describes the skin cancer on the frontal chest wall induced by postoperative irradiation 30 years later from mastectomy. The patients was a 62-year-old woman, who received mastectomy of the right breast cancer (invasive ductal carcinoma, comedo type) at 31 years old, and received the postoperative radiotherapy of total 11,628 rad over 38 times. On the first medical examination in author`s hospital, the patient had an ulcer of about 10 cm diameter and was diagnosed the radiation induced skin cancer (well differentiated squamous cell carcinoma) in the biopsy. Because of the general condition of the patient was extremely bad and the skin cancer had highly developed, the excision was thought to be impossible. The radiotherapy (16 Gy) and combined local chemotherapy by OK 432 and Bleomycin were performed. In spite of the short term treatment, these therapies were effective on the reduction of the tumor size and the hemostasis, and brought the patient the improvement of QOL. The general condition of the patient improved to be stable and she recovered enough to go out from the hospital for 6 months. After 10 months, she showed anorexia and dyspnea and died after about 1 year from the admission. The present case is extremely rare, and it is required the radical therapy like the excision of chest wall at early stage. (K.H.)

  11. Surveillance of Infectious Diseases by the Sentinel Laboratory Network in Belgium: 30 Years of Continuous Improvement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muyldermans, Gaëtan; Ducoffre, Geneviève; Leroy, Mathias; Dupont, Yves; Quolin, Sophie

    2016-01-01

    In 1983 the sentinel laboratory network was established because of the need to describe the epidemiological evolution of infectious diseases. During the study period of 30 years (1983-2013), microbiology laboratories reported on weekly basis the laboratory diagnosed cases for a selection of infectious diseases. This resulted in a large longitudinal laboratory based database allowing to provide trends over time and distribution by person and place. During this period, adaptations to data collection were made due to changes in diagnostic methods and public health priorities, introduction and application of digital revolution, and multiple reorganizations of the laboratories. Since the surveillance network is dynamic, it necessitates a continuous evaluation to ensure that, over time, it continues to be representative of the general epidemiological trends in the country. Secondly the aim is to examine the robustness and stability of this surveillance system. Here we demonstrated that the flexibility of the data collection methodology by the sentinel laboratory network is unique and that adaptations do not affect the capacity of the system to follow trends. Therefore, the surveillance by this network is representative of the current epidemiological situation in Belgium. To our knowledge, no such surveillance network with such a long-term follow-up and demonstrated stability for multiple infectious diseases in the general population was earlier described. Furthermore, expected trends due to the implementation of vaccination or other events were accurately detected. The collected data obtained from this network allows interesting comparisons with other national and international information sources. PMID:27571203

  12. From Energy Audits to Home Performance: 30 Years of Articles in Home Energy Magazine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meier, Alan

    2014-08-11

    Home Energy Magazine has been publishing articles about residential energy efficiency for 30 years. Its goal has been to disseminate technically reliable and neutral information to the practitioners, that is, professionals in the business of home energy efficiency. The articles, editorials, letters, and advertisements are a kind of window on the evolution of energy conservation technologies, policies, and organizations. Initially, the focus was on audits and simple retrofits, such as weatherstripping and insulation. Instrumentation was sparse sometimes limited to a ruler to measure depth of attic insulation and a blower door was exotic. CFLs were heavy, awkward bulbs which might, or might not, fit in a fixture. Saving air conditioning energy was not a priority. Solar energy was only for the most adventurous. Thirty years on, the technologies and business have moved beyond just insulating attics to the larger challenge of delivering home performance and achieving zero net energy. This shift reflects the success in reducing space heating energy and the need to create a profitable industry by providing more services. The leading edge of the residential energy services market is becoming much more sophisticated, offering both efficiency and solar systems. The challenge is to continue providing relevant and reliable information in a transformed industry and a revolutionized media landscape.

  13. International Standards for Properties and Performance of Advanced Ceramics - 30 years of Excellence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, Michael G.; Salem, Jonathan A.; Helfinstine, John; Quinn, George D.; Gonczy, Stephen T.

    2016-01-01

    Mechanical and physical properties/performance of brittle bodies (e.g., advanced ceramics and glasses) can be difficult to measure correctly unless the proper techniques are used. For three decades, ASTM Committee C28 on Advanced Ceramics, has developed numerous full-consensus standards (e.g., test methods, practices, guides, terminology) to measure various properties and performance of a monolithic and composite ceramics and coatings that, in some cases, may be applicable to glasses. These standards give the "what, how, how not, why, why not, etc." for many mechanical, physical, thermal, properties and performance of advanced ceramics. Use of these standards provides accurate, reliable, repeatable and complete data. Involvement in ASTM Committee C28 has included users, producers, researchers, designers, academicians, etc. who write, continually update, and validate through round robin test programmes, more than 45 standards in the 30 years since the Committee's inception in 1986. Included in this poster is a pictogram of the ASTM Committee C28 standards and how to obtain them either as i) individual copies with full details or ii) a complete collection in one volume. A listing of other ASTM committees of interest is included. In addition, some examples of the tangible benefits of standards for advanced ceramics are employed to demonstrate their practical application.

  14. Interannual variability of the Indonesian Throughflow transport: A revisit based on 30 year expendable bathythermograph data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Qin-Yan; Feng, Ming; Wang, Dongxiao; Wijffels, Susan

    2015-12-01

    Based on 30 year repeated expendable bathythermograph (XBT) deployments between Fremantle, Western Australia, and the Sunda Strait, Indonesia, from 1984 to 2013, interannual variability of geostrophic transport of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) and its relationships with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are investigated. The IOD induced coastal Kelvin waves propagate along the Sumatra-Java coast of Indonesia, and ENSO induced coastal Kelvin waves propagate along the northwest coast of Australia, both influencing interannual variations of the ITF transport. The ITF geostrophic transport is stronger during La Niña phase and weaker during El Niño phase, with the Niño3.4 index leading the ITF variability by 7 months. The Indian Ocean wind variability associated with the IOD to a certain extent offset the Pacific ENSO influences on the ITF geostrophic transport during the developing and mature phases of El Niño and La Niña, due to the covarying IOD variability with ENSO. The ITF geostrophic transport experiences a strengthening trend of about 1 Sv every 10 years over the study period, which is mostly due to a response to the strengthening of the trade winds in the Pacific during the climate change hiatus period. Decadal variations of the temperature-salinity relationships need to be considered when estimating the geostrophic transport of the ITF using XBT data.

  15. Recurrent ectopic pancreatitis of the jejunum and mesentery over a 30-year period

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    John CT Wong; Charlotte Robinson; Edward C Jones; Alison Harris; Charles Zwirewich; Robert Wakefield; Richard K Simons; Eric M Yoshida

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Ectopic pancreas is defined as pancreatic tissue found outside its usual anatomical position, with no ductal or vascular communication with the native pancreas. We describe a case of ectopic pancreas of the small bowel and mesentery causing recurrent episodes of pancreatitis, initially suspected on computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP), and confirmed on histological review of the resection. METHODS: A 67-year-old woman presented with clinical symptoms and biochemical evidence of pancreatitis. She had similar episodes over the past 30 years with unrevealing investi-gations, and was concluded to have idiopathic pancreatitis. She underwent CT and MRCP, with findings suggestive of ectopic pancreas, a diagnosis confirmed on histology of the resection. RESULTS: MRCP identified a mass in the proximal small bowel mesentery isointense to the native pancreas, with a small duct draining into a proximal jejunal loop. The resected specimen consisted of normal parenchyma with lobulated acinar tissue with scattered islets of Langerhans, an occasional ductular structure, and admixed areas of adipose tissue. The patient remained asymptomatic with normal biochemistry six months post-operatively. CONCLUSION: In an individual with abdominal pain, elevated serum amylase/lipase, but imaging findings of a normal native pancreas, ectopic pancreatitis should be considered, and can be evaluated by CT and MRCP.

  16. The virtual brain: 30 years of video-game play and cognitive abilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew James Latham

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Forty years have passed since video-games were first made widely available to the public and subsequently playing games has become a favourite past-time for many. Players continuously engage with dynamic visual displays with success contingent on the time-pressured deployment, and flexible allocation, of attention as well as precise bimanual movements. Evidence to date suggests that both brief and extensive exposure to video-game play can result in a broad range of enhancements to various cognitive faculties that generalize beyond the original context. Despite promise, video-game research is host to a number of methodological issues that require addressing before progress can be made in this area. Here an effort is made to consolidate the past 30 years of literature examining the effects of video-game play on cognitive faculties and, more recently, neural systems. Future work is required to identify the mechanism that allows the act of video-game play to generate such a broad range of generalized enhancements.

  17. The changing patterns of drug use among American Indian students over the past 30 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beauvais, Fred; Jumper-Thurman, Pamela; Burnside, Martha

    2008-01-01

    Drug use among American Indian (AI) youth continues at higher levels than those found among other youth. While the rates are higher, the patterns of increases and decreases over the past 30-year period have been similar, indicating that AI youth are part of the larger adolescent culture. There is a set of secular influences that affect the rates of drug use in both groups in the same manner. The major implication of these findings is that effective interventions in non-AI groups may also be effective among AI adolescents. Intervention activities, however, must be adapted to be culturally congruent. Despite rising concern over methamphetamine use on reservations, the data presented here indicate that, with the exception of two points in time, the rates have not increased substantially for AI youth who remain in school. School dropouts and young adults/adults may be more vulnerable to the abuse of methamphetamines and the rates of use may be higher in these groups. PMID:19085827

  18. Effect Of Yoga On Cardiovascular And Mental Status In Normal Subjects Above 30 years Of Age

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anita Herur

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available The cardiovascular diseases are much on a rise ever since the past few decades in developing countries. This study was done to analyze the effect of yoga on cardiovascular and mental status in normal subjects above the age of 30 years. The cardiovascular status was assessed by recording the blood pressure and heart rate; and mental status in terms of a questionnaire, before and after 6 months of regular yogic practice. The mean resting heart rate(beats/min before yoga was 77.8 ± 4.8, which reduced significantly to 71.3 ± 5.2 after 6months of yogic practice (p<0.001. The mean resting systolic blood pressure (mm Hg before yogic practice was 131.4 ± 10.2 and after 6months, it was lowered to a highly significant (p<0.001 level of 123.5 ± 9.9. The mean resting diastolic blood pressure (mm Hg before yoga was 85.6 ± 6.8 and reduced significantly (p<0.001 to 79.6 ± 7.3. The mean General Health Questionnare-28(GHQ-28 score before yogic practice was 8.4 ± 5.7 which reduced to 5.0 ± 4.1 after 6 months (p<0.001, showing a positive attitude of the subjects. Hence, yogic practice can be used as an intervention in ageing persons to reduce the morbidity and mortality from cardiovascular diseases.

  19. Sex differences in sub-clinical psychosis--results from a community study over 30 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rössler, Wulf; Hengartner, Michael P; Ajdacic-Gross, Vladeta; Haker, Helene; Angst, Jules

    2012-08-01

    Sex differences in schizophrenia have long been reported. They are found within almost all aspects of the disease, from incidence and prevalence, age of onset, symptomatology, and course to its psycho-social outcome. Many sex-related hypotheses have been developed about the biology, psychology, or sociology of that disease. A further approach to study sex differences would be to examine such differences in sub-clinical psychotic states as well. If factors related to full-blown psychosis were equally meaningful over the entire psychosis continuum, we should expect that "true" sex differences could also be identified in sub-clinical psychosis. Here, we studied sex differences in sub-clinical psychosis within a community cohort in Zurich, Switzerland. This population was followed for over 30 years and included males and females between the ages of 20/21 and 49/50. We applied two different measures of sub-clinical psychosis representing schizotypal signs and schizophrenia nuclear symptoms. Using cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses, we found no significant sex differences in sub-clinical psychosis over time with respect to age of onset, symptomatology, course, or psycho-social outcome. Thus it appears that sex differences in psychosis manifest themselves at the high end of the continuum (full-blown schizophrenia) rather than within the sub-threshold range. Possibly males and females have separate thresholds for certain symptoms because they are differently vulnerable or exposed to various risk factors. PMID:22632902

  20. 30 Years on Selected Issues in the Prevention of HIV among Persons Who Inject Drugs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. C. Des Jarlais

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available After 30 years of extensive research on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV among persons who inject drugs (PWID, we now have a good understanding of the critical issues involved. Following the discovery of HIV in 1981, epidemics among PWID were noted in many countries, and consensus recommendations for interventions for reducing injection related HIV transmission have been developed. While high-income countries have continued to develop and implement new Harm Reduction programs, most low-/middle-income countries have implemented Harm Reduction at very low levels. Modeling of combined prevention programming including needle exchange (NSP and antiretroviral therapy (ARV suggests that NSP be given the highest priority. Future HIV prevention programming should continue to provide Harm Reduction programs for PWID coupled with interventions aimed at reducing sexual transmission. As HIV continues to spread in low- and middle-income countries, it is important to achieve and maintain high coverage of Harm Reduction programs in these locations. As PWID almost always experience multiple health problems, it will be important to address these multiple problems within a comprehensive approach grounded in a human rights perspective.

  1. RADIATION CONDITIONS IN KALUGA REGION 30 YEARS AFTER CHERNOBYL NPP ACCIDENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. G. Ashitko

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article describes radiation conditions in the Kaluga region 30 years after the Chernobyl NPP accident. The Chernobyl NPP accident caused radioactive contamination of nine Kaluga region territories: Duminichsky, Zhizdrinsky, Kuibyshevsky, Kirovsky, Kozelsky, Ludinovsky, Meshchovsky, Ulyanovsky and Hvastovichsky districts. Radioactive fallout was the strongest in three southern districts: Zhizdrinsky, Ulyanovsky and Hvastovichsky, over there cesium-137 contamination density is from 1 to 15Ci/km. According to the Russian Federation Government Order in 2015 there are 300 settlements (S in the radioactive contamination zone, including 14 settlements with caesium-137 soil contamination density from 5 to 15 Ci/ km2 and 286 settlements with the contamination density ranging from 1 to 5 Ci/km2. In the first years after the Chernobyl NPP accident in Kaluga region territories, contaminated with caesium-137, there were introduced restrictive land usage, were carried out agrochemical activities (ploughing, mineral fertilizer dressing, there was toughened laboratory radiation control over the main doze-forming foodstuff. All these measures facilitated considerable decrease of caesium-137 content in local agricultural produce. Proceeding from the achieved result, in 2002 there took place the transition to more tough requirements SanPiN 2.3.2.1078-01. Analysis of investigated samples from Zhizdrinsky, Ulyanovsky and Hvastovichsky districts demonstrated that since 2005 meat samples didn’t exceed the standard values, same for milk samples since 2007. Till the present time, the use of wild-growing mushrooms, berries and wild animals meat involves radiation issues. It was demonstrated that average specific activity of caesium-137 in milk samples keeps decreasing year after year. Long after the Chernobyl NPP accident, the main products forming internal irradiation doses in population are the wild-growing mushrooms and berries. Population average annual

  2. Aetiology of maxillofacial fractures: a review of published studies during the last 30 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boffano, Paolo; Kommers, Sofie C; Karagozoglu, K Hakki; Forouzanfar, Tymour

    2014-12-01

    The epidemiology of facial trauma may vary widely across countries (and even within the same country), and is dependent on several cultural and socioeconomic factors. We know of few reviews of published reports that have considered the sex distribution and aetiology of maxillofacial trauma throughout the world. The aim of this review was to discuss these aspects as they have been presented in papers published during the last 30 years. We made a systematic review of papers about the epidemiology of maxillofacial trauma that were published between January 1980 and December 2013 and identified 69 studies from Africa (n=9), North America and Brazil (n=6), Asia (n=36), Europe (n=16), and Oceania (n=2). In all the studies men outnumbered women, the ratio usually being more than 2:1. In American, African, and Asian studies road traffic crashes were the predominant cause. In European studies the aetiology varied, with assaults and road traffic crashes being the most important factors. In Oceania assaults were the most important. A comparison of the incidence of maxillofacial trauma of different countries together with a knowledge of different laws (seat belts for drivers, helmets for motocyclists, speed limits, and protection worn during sports and at work) is crucial to allow for improvement in several countries. To our knowledge this paper is the first attempt to study and compare the aetiologies of maxillofacial trauma. PMID:25218316

  3. A glimpse into 30 years of struggle against prostitution by the women's liberation movement in Norway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strøm, Agnete

    2009-11-01

    The Women's Front of Norway has worked against prostitution for 30 years. In 2008 a law criminalizing the purchase of a sexual act was passed in Norway. This article describes the struggle and the main actors in lobbying for the law. In the 1980s, we raised awareness of prostitution and trafficking in women in a study of the pornography industry, and targeted sex tourist agencies organizing trips to the Philippines and Thailand. In the 1990s, our members in trade unions got their unions to take a stand against prostitution and against legalizing prostitution as "work". In 2006, the Norwegian Confederation of Trade Unions Congress supported a law criminalizing the buyer of a sexual act; this had a strong impact on the centre-left coalition Government. We invited leaders of the Coalition Against Trafficking in Women to Norway to meet parliamentarians and trade unionists, and kept up the pressure. From the start, the focus was on ensuring that the situation for women in prostitution was ameliorated. Our demands have been for better social services and job training. Street prostitution, especially in Oslo, has been curbed, and a growth in the indoor market has not been reported. Our next task is participating in the awareness campaign "Buying Sex is not a Sport" in connection with the Soccer World Cup, South Africa, 2010. PMID:19962635

  4. A glimpse into 30 years of struggle against prostitution by the women's liberation movement in Norway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strøm, Agnete

    2009-11-01

    The Women's Front of Norway has worked against prostitution for 30 years. In 2008 a law criminalizing the purchase of a sexual act was passed in Norway. This article describes the struggle and the main actors in lobbying for the law. In the 1980s, we raised awareness of prostitution and trafficking in women in a study of the pornography industry, and targeted sex tourist agencies organizing trips to the Philippines and Thailand. In the 1990s, our members in trade unions got their unions to take a stand against prostitution and against legalizing prostitution as "work". In 2006, the Norwegian Confederation of Trade Unions Congress supported a law criminalizing the buyer of a sexual act; this had a strong impact on the centre-left coalition Government. We invited leaders of the Coalition Against Trafficking in Women to Norway to meet parliamentarians and trade unionists, and kept up the pressure. From the start, the focus was on ensuring that the situation for women in prostitution was ameliorated. Our demands have been for better social services and job training. Street prostitution, especially in Oslo, has been curbed, and a growth in the indoor market has not been reported. Our next task is participating in the awareness campaign "Buying Sex is not a Sport" in connection with the Soccer World Cup, South Africa, 2010.

  5. Technical note on probabilistic assessment of one-step-ahead rainfall variation by Split Markov Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maity, R.; Prasad, D.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, Split Markov Process (SMP) is developed to assess one-step-ahead variation of daily rainfall at a rain gauge station. SMP is an advancement of general Markov Process (MP) and specially developed for probabilistic assessment of change in daily rainfall magnitude. The approach is based on a first-order Markov chain to simulate daily rainfall variation at a point through state/sub-state Transitional Probability Matrix (TPM). The state/sub-state TPM is based on the historical transitions from a particular state to a particular sub-state, which is the basic difference between SMP and general MP. In MP, the transition from a particular state to another state is investigated. However, in SMP, the daily rainfall magnitude is categorized into different states and change in magnitude from one temporal step to another is categorized into different sub-states for the probabilistic assessment of rainfall variation. The cumulative state/sub-state TPM is represented in a contour plot at different probability levels. The developed cumulative state/sub-state TPM is used to assess the possible range of rainfall in next time step, in a probabilistic sense. Application of SMP is investigated for daily rainfall at Khandwa station in the Nimar district of Madhya Pradesh, India. Eighty years of daily monsoon rainfall is used to develop the state/sub-state TPM and twenty years data is used to investigate its performance. It is observed that the predicted range of daily rainfall captures the actual observed rainfall with few exceptions. Overall, the assessed range, particularly the upper limit, provides a quantification possible extreme value in the next time step, which is very useful information to tackle the extreme events, such flooding, water logging etc.

  6. Network design for heavy rainfall analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rietsch, T.; Naveau, P.; Gilardi, N.; Guillou, A.

    2013-12-01

    The analysis of heavy rainfall distributional properties is a complex object of study in hydrology and climatology, and it is essential for impact studies. In this paper, we investigate the question of how to optimize the spatial design of a network of existing weather stations. Our main criterion for such an inquiry is the capability of the network to capture the statistical properties of heavy rainfall described by the Extreme Value Theory. We combine this theory with a machine learning algorithm based on neural networks and a Query By Committee approach. Our resulting algorithm is tested on simulated data and applied to high-quality extreme daily precipitation measurements recorded in France at 331 weather stations during the time period 1980-2010.

  7. Regionalization of scaling properties of heavy rainfall for short durations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceresetti, D.; Molinié, G.; Creutin, J.

    2008-12-01

    The region of study, Cévennes-Vivarais in the South-East of France, is prone to severe rainfall and floods with serious consequences. Therefore, a relatively dense rainfall survey has been developed since the middle of the last century by means of hourly and daily rain gauges, and enhanced during the last 20 years in densifying the rain gauge network and implementing a radar network. It is well known that understanding, forecasting and assessing forecasts of heavy rainfall events necessitate to manage with point and spatialized rainfall data with different temporal resolutions. Moreover, it has been shown (Ramos et al., 2005, J. of Hydrology, V. 315) that storm severity from a socio-economical point of view depends both on the rainfall intensity and on the spatial and temporal scales at which it is assessed (return periods at given temporal and spatial scales). The need to compare storm severity from different data sets (raingauges, radar, model outputs) motivates our investigations of scale relationships in rainfall fields of the Cévennes-Vivarais region. Hourly rainfall series of raingauges support the evidence that the probability density functions of the most intense rainfall rates behave as power-laws. However, a careful determination of the power-law parameters is needed to avoid idiosyncratic parameter values of point rainfall in rainfall fields. Following Goldstein et al., 2004 (Eur. Phys. J. B, V. 41), the lower cut-off of the distribution has been been determined by an objective statistical method based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The maximum likelihood estimator has been implemented has it gives unbiased estimates of the power-law exponent compared to the classical least square fitting. Even though, the terrain elevation of the region is complex, well-defined spatial structures at the hourly and daily time scales have been found. These results are in good agreement with heavy rainfall features determined by classical extreme rainfall analysis

  8. Prevalence of dry eye amongst black and Indian university students aged 18–30 years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bryce Castelyn

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: The overall prevalence of dry eye in South Africa seems to be increasing. University students work under conditions predisposing them to dry eye, which may affect some tasks. The predominant race groups at the University of KwaZulu-Natal (UKZN are black and Indian, which suggested a study in this student population to assist the diagnosis and management of such subjects.Aim and setting: To compare the prevalence of dry eye amongst black and Indian students at the UKZN’s Westville campus.Methods: One hundred participants, equally divided by gender and race, between 18 and 30 years old were enrolled. Dry eye symptoms were investigated by the ocular surface disease index (OSDI, tear thinning time (TTT, tear breakup time (TBUT and Schirmer’s 2 in that sequence on both eyes of each participant.Results: The OSDI revealed that 41% of participants had some dry eye symptoms whilst 59% had no symptoms. Clinical testing showed that 81% of participants had dry eye. Half of the black participants had dry eye symptoms and 82% had clinical signs of dry eye. Of the 50 Indian participants, 32% had dry eye symptoms and 80% had clinical signs. Of the 50 male participants, 34% were symptomatic and 86% had clinical signs. Of the 50 female participants, 48% had dry eye symptoms and 76% had clinical signs. Participants were asymptomatic even in the presence of clinical dry eye signs.Conclusion: For both races and genders, clinical signs of dry eye were more common than symptoms. Black participants were more likely to report symptoms than Indians, and more women than men reported having symptoms. Male participants were more likely than female to have clinical signs of dry eye.

  9. A 30-year history of earthquake crisis communication in California and lessons for the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, L.

    2015-12-01

    The first statement from the US Geological Survey to the California Office of Emergency Services quantifying the probability of a possible future earthquake was made in October 1985 about the probability (approximately 5%) that a M4.7 earthquake located directly beneath the Coronado Bay Bridge in San Diego would be a foreshock to a larger earthquake. In the next 30 years, publication of aftershock advisories have become routine and formal statements about the probability of a larger event have been developed in collaboration with the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (CEPEC) and sent to CalOES more than a dozen times. Most of these were subsequently released to the public. These communications have spanned a variety of approaches, with and without quantification of the probabilities, and using different ways to express the spatial extent and the magnitude distribution of possible future events. The USGS is re-examining its approach to aftershock probability statements and to operational earthquake forecasting with the goal of creating pre-vetted automated statements that can be released quickly after significant earthquakes. All of the previous formal advisories were written during the earthquake crisis. The time to create and release a statement became shorter with experience from the first public advisory (to the 1988 Lake Elsman earthquake) that was released 18 hours after the triggering event, but was never completed in less than 2 hours. As was done for the Parkfield experiment, the process will be reviewed by CEPEC and NEPEC (National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council) so the statements can be sent to the public automatically. This talk will review the advisories, the variations in wording and the public response and compare this with social science research about successful crisis communication, to create recommendations for future advisories

  10. Spontaneous resolution rates of vesicoureteral reflux in Brazilian children: a 30-year experience

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    Miguel Zerati Filho

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: We evaluated clinical characteristics of primary vesicoureteral reflux (VUR in infants in a 30-year period in Brazil with special reference to the relation of renal parenchymal damage to urinary tract infection and gender. MATERIALS AND METHODS: From 1975 through 2005, 417 girls (81.6% and 94 boys (18.4% with all grades of reflux were retrospectively reviewed. Patients were categorized by the worst grade of reflux, maintained on antibiotic prophylaxis and underwent yearly voiding cystourethrography until the reflux was resolved. VUR was considered resolved when a follow-up cystogram demonstrated no reflux. Surgical correction was recommended for those who fail medical therapy, severe renal scarring or persistent VUR. RESULTS: Grades I to V VUR resolved in 87.5%, 77.6%, 52.8%, 12.2% and 4.3%, respectively. Renal scars were present at presentation in 98 patients (19.2%. Neither gender nor bilaterality versus unilaterality was a helpful predictor of resolution. The significant difference was found among the curves using the log rank (p < 0.001 or Wilcoxon (p < 0.001 test. CONCLUSION: Despite the current use of screening prenatal ultrasound, many infants are still diagnosed as having vesicoureteral reflux only after the occurrence of urinary tract infection in our country. Scarring may be associated to any reflux grade and it may be initially diagnosed at any age but half of the scars are noted with higher grades of reflux (IV and V. The incidence of reflux related morbidity in children has significantly diminished over the last three decades.

  11. 30-year International Pediatric Craniofacial Surgery Partnership: Evolution from the “Third World” Forward

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swanson, Jordan W.; Skirpan, Jan; Stanek, Beata; Kowalczyk, Maciej

    2016-01-01

    Background: Craniofacial diseases constitute an important component of the surgical disease burden in low- and middle-income countries. The consideration to introduce craniofacial surgery into such settings poses different questions, risks, and challenges compared with cleft or other forms of plastic surgery. We report the evolution, innovations, and challenges of a 30-year international craniofacial surgery partnership. Methods: We retrospectively report a partnership between surgeons at the Uniwersytecki Szpital Dzieciecy in Krakow, Poland, and a North American craniofacial surgeon. We studied patient conditions, treatment patterns, and associated complications, as well as program advancements and limitations as perceived by surgeons, patient families, and hospital administrators. Results: Since partnership inception in 1986, the complexity of cases performed increased gradually, with the first intracranial case performed in 1995. In the most recent 10-year period (2006–2015), 85 patients have been evaluated, with most common diagnoses of Apert syndrome, Crouzon syndrome, and single-suture craniosynostosis. In the same period, 55 major surgical procedures have been undertaken, with LeFort III midface distraction, posterior vault distraction, and frontoorbital advancement performed most frequently. Key innovations have been the employment of craniofacial distraction osteogenesis, the use of Internet communication and digital photography, and increased understanding of how craniofacial morphology may improve in the absence of surgical intervention. Ongoing challenges include prohibitive training pathways for pediatric plastic surgeons, difficulty in coordinating care with surgeons in other institutions, and limited medical and material resources. Conclusion: Safe craniofacial surgery can be introduced and sustained in a resource-limited setting through an international partnership. PMID:27200233

  12. Spontaneus bilateral pedicle fracture 30 years after Harrington Instrumentation for idiopathic scoliosis: a case report

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    Obid Peter

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction Spontaneous fractures of the spine are a common entity. They usually occur in older people with osteoporosis. This case is presented on account of its rarity. To the best of the authors' knowledge only one case of an osteoporotic pedicle fracture after Harrington Instrumentation has been described before. Case presentation We report the case of a 46-year-old Caucasian woman who underwent surgery due to idiopathic scoliosis with a Harrington Instrumentation (T4 to L3 30 years ago. During the operation she was infected with hepatitis C while receiving erythrocyte concentrates and has suffered from liver cirrhosis since then. She presented with a sudden pain in her lower back and paraesthesia in both her legs but no other neurological symptoms. A computed tomography scan showed a bilateral pedicle fracture of L3 and an additional compression fracture of L4. In the first session we performed a dorsal stabilization with massive intraoperative bleeding and a postoperative failure of liver synthesis. In a second session an additional ventral augmentation was done. After the second operation she developed a hepatorenal syndrome. Both operations left the patient in a very critical state which led to a prolonged stay in the intensive care and rehabilitation unit. At her 12-month follow-up visit, she was free of complaints. Conclusion The un-physiological load of the spine after Harrington Instrumentation can lead to osteoporosis due to inactivity even in younger patients. Although these implants are not used anymore one should keep this possibility in mind when dealing with patients who have received Harrington rods in surgical procedures.

  13. Congenital lobar emphysema: 30-year case series in two university hospitals

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    Daniele Cristina Cataneo

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To review the cases of patients with congenital lobar emphysema (CLE submitted to surgical treatment at two university hospitals over a 30-year period. METHODS: We reviewed the medical records of children with CLE undergoing surgical treatment between 1979 and 2009 at the Botucatu School of Medicine Hospital das Clínicas or the Mogi das Cruzes University Hospital. We analyzed data regarding symptoms, physical examination, radiographic findings, diagnosis, surgical treatment, and postoperative follow-up. RESULTS: During the period studied, 20 children with CLE underwent surgery. The mean age at the time of surgery was 6.9 months (range, 9 days to 4 years. All of the cases presented with symptoms at birth or during the first months of life. In all cases, chest X-rays were useful in defining the diagnosis. In cases of moderate respiratory distress, chest CT facilitated the diagnosis. One patient with severe respiratory distress was misdiagnosed with hypertensive pneumothorax and underwent chest tube drainage. Only patients with moderate respiratory distress were submitted to bronchoscopy, which revealed no tracheobronchial abnormalities. The surgical approach was lateral muscle-sparing thoracotomy. The left upper and middle lobes were the most often affected, followed by the right upper lobe. Lobectomy was performed in 18 cases, whereas bilobectomy was performed in 2 (together with bronchogenic cyst resection in 1 of those. No postoperative complications were observed. Postoperative follow-up time was at least 24 months (mean, 60 months, and no late complications were observed. CONCLUSIONS: Although CLE is an uncommon, still neglected disease of uncertain etiology, the radiological diagnosis is easily made and surgical treatment is effective.

  14. A continuing 30-year decline in water quality of Jiaojiang Estuary, China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chun-ye Wang; Bin Zhou; Bei Huang

    2015-01-01

    A quantitative description of a long-term series of aquatic environmental factors and their spatial distributions was generated using measured data from the Jiaojiang Estuary from 1982 to 2011. The aquatic environmental factors included suspended matter, salinity, and nutrients. Based on these factors, the aquatic ecosystem health in the Jiaojiang Estuary over the last 30 years was analyzed. The results indicated that the suspended matter concentration in the estuary was mainly affected by the amounts of suspended sediment and solid waste, with the value fluctuating over a long period, and the range of high concentration expanded continually;the salinity was mainly affected by precipitation and surface water resources, showing an overall decreasing trend, and the region with low salinity moved seaward and toward the reclamation areas;and the nutritional status, mainly affected by discharge of industrial wastewater and domestic sewage, was satisfactory in the 1980s and 1990s, but the status became severe in recent years. Reclamation had a great influence on these three factors: high reclamation strength led to a significant increase in the suspended matter concentration and a deterioration of the nutritional status, and the reclamation rate was negatively related with the salinity in the estuary. There was a significant positive correlation between the health status of the aquatic ecosystem and salinity, with a correlation coefficient of 0.93. The correlation coefficient between the health status and nutritional status was ?0.71, while the correlation between the suspended matter concentration and health status was not as significant as that of the other two factors. The dynamics of the aquatic environment could be divided into four stages: sustainable health from the 1980s to the 1990s, continued deterioration from 2000 to 2003, improvement from 2004 to 2005, and secondary deterioration from 2006 to 2011. The Jiaojiang Estuary is faced with imminent environmental

  15. Climatic effects of 30 years of landscape change over the Greater Phoenix, Arizona, region: 1. Surface energy budget changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgescu, M.; Miguez-Macho, G.; Steyaert, L.T.; Weaver, C.P.

    2009-01-01

    This paper is part 1 of a two-part study that evaluates the climatic effects of recent landscape change for one of the nation's most rapidly expanding metropolitan complexes, the Greater Phoenix, Arizona, region. The region's landscape evolution over an approximate 30-year period since the early 1970s is documented on the basis of analyses of Landsat images and land use/land cover (LULC) data sets derived from aerial photography (1973) and Landsat (1992 and 2001). High-resolution, Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), simulations (2-km grid spacing) are used in conjunction with consistently defined land cover data sets and associated biophysical parameters for the circa 1973, circa 1992, and circa 2001 time periods to quantify the impacts of intensive land use changes on the July surface temperatures and the surface radiation and energy budgets for the Greater Phoenix region. The main findings are as follows: since the early 1970s the region's landscape has been altered by a significant increase in urban/suburban land area, primarily at the expense of decreasing plots of irrigated agriculture and secondarily by the conversion of seminatural shrubland. Mean regional temperatures for the circa 2001 landscape were 0.12??C warmer than the circa 1973 landscape, with maximum temperature differences, located over regions of greatest urbanization, in excess of 1??C. The significant reduction in irrigated agriculture, for the circa 2001 relative to the circa 1973 landscape, resulted in dew point temperature decreases in excess of 1??C. The effect of distinct land use conversion themes (e.g., conversion from irrigated agriculture to urban land) was also examined to evaluate how the most important conversion themes have each contributed to the region's changing climate. The two urbanization themes studied (from an initial landscape of irrigated agriculture and seminatural shrubland) have the greatest positive effect on near-surface temperature, increasing maximum daily

  16. Flooding dynamics in a large low-gradient alluvial fan, the Okavango Delta, Botswana, from analysis and interpretation of a 30-year hydrometric record

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    P. Wolski

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The Okavango Delta is a flood-pulsed wetland, which supports a large tourism industry and the subsistence of the local population through the provision of ecosystem services. In order to obtain insight into the influence of various environmental factors on flood propagation and distribution in this system, an analysis was undertaken of a 30-year record of hydrometric data (discharges and water levels from one of the Delta distributaries. The analysis revealed that water levels and discharges at any given channel site in this distributary are influenced by a complex interplay of flood wave and local rainfall inputs, modified by channel-floodplain interactions, in-channel sedimentation and technical interventions, both at the given site and upstream. Additionally, cyclical variation of channel vegetation due to intermittent nutrient loading, possibly sustained by nutrient recycling, may play a role. It is shown that short and long-term flood dynamics are mainly due to variation in floodplain flows. As a consequence, discharge data collected within the main channels of distributaries do not adequately represent flooding dynamics in the system. The paper contributes to the understanding of seasonal and long-term flood pulsing and their variation in low gradient systems of channels and floodplains.

  17. The National Tumor Association Foundation (ANT: A 30 year old model of home palliative care

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    Bonazzi Valeria

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Models of palliative care delivery develop within a social, cultural, and political context. This paper describes the 30-year history of the National Tumor Association (ANT, a palliative care organization founded in the Italian province of Bologna, focusing on this model of home care for palliative cancer patients and on its evaluation. Methods Data were collected from the 1986-2008 ANT archives and documents from the Emilia-Romagna Region Health Department, Italy. Outcomes of interest were changed in: number of patients served, performance status at admission (Karnofsky Performance Status score [KPS], length of participation in the program (days of care provided, place of death (home vs. hospital/hospice, and satisfaction with care. Statistical methods included linear and quadratic regressions. A linear and a quadratic regressions were generated; the independent variable was the year, while the dependent one was the number of patients from 1986 to 2008. Two linear regressions were generated for patients died at home and in the hospital, respectively. For each regression, the R square, the unstandardized and standardized coefficients and related P-values were estimated. Results The number of patients served by ANT has increased continuously from 131 (1986 to a cumulative total of 69,336 patients (2008, at a steady rate of approximately 121 additional patients per year and with no significant gender difference. The annual number of home visits increased from 6,357 (1985 to 904,782 (2008. More ANT patients died at home than in hospice or hospital; this proportion increased from 60% (1987 to 80% (2007. The rate of growth in the number of patients dying in hospital/hospice was approximately 40 patients/year (p 40 increased. Mean days of care for patients with KPS > 40 exceeded mean days for patients with KPS Conclusions The ANT home care model of palliative care delivery has been well-received, with progressively growing numbers

  18. Historical data reveal 30-year persistence of benthic fauna associations in heavily modified waterbody

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    Ruth Callaway

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Baseline surveys form the cornerstone of coastal impact studies where altered conditions, for example through new infrastructure development, are assessed against a temporal reference state. They are snapshots taken before construction. Due to scarcity of relevant data prior to baseline surveys long-term trends can often not be taken into account. Particularly in heavily modified waterbodies this would however be desirable to control for changes in anthropogenic use over time as well as natural ecological variation. Here, the benthic environment of an industrialized embayment was investigated (Swansea Bay, Wales, UK where it is proposed to build a tidal lagoon that would generate marine renewable energy from the tidal range. Since robust long-term baseline data was not available, the value of unpublished historical benthos information from 1984 by a regional water company was assessed with the aim to improve certainty about the persistence of current benthic community patterns. A survey of 101 positions in 2014 identified spatially discrete benthic communities with areas of high and low diversity. Habitat characteristics including sediment properties and the proximity to a sewage outfall explained 17-35% of the variation in the community structure. Comparing the historical information from 1984 with 2014 revealed striking similarity in the benthic communities between those years, not just in their spatial distribution but also to a large extent in the species composition. The 30-year-old information confirmed spatial boundaries of discrete species associations and pinpointed a similar diversity hotspot. A group of five common species was found to be particularly persistent over time (Nucula nitidosa, Spisula elliptica, Spiophanes bombyx, Nephtys hombergii, Diastylis rathkei. According to the Infauna Quality Index (IQI linked to the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD the average ecological status for 2014 was ‘moderate’, but eleven samples

  19. Mortality of IgA nephropathy patients: a single center experience over 30 years.

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    Hajeong Lee

    Full Text Available Research on the prognosis of IgA nephropathy (IgAN has focused on renal survival, with little information being available on patient survival. Hence, this investigation aimed to explore long-term patient outcome in IgAN patients. Clinical and pathological characteristics at the time of renal biopsy were reviewed in 1,364 IgAN patients from 1979 to 2008. The outcomes were patient death and end stage renal disease (ESRD progression. Overall, 71 deaths (5.3% and 277 cases of ESRD (20.6% occurred during 13,916 person-years. Ten-, 20-, and 30-year patient survival rates were 96.3%, 91.8%, and 82.7%, respectively. More than 50% patient deaths occurred without ESRD progression. Overall mortality was elevated by 43% from an age/sex-matched general population (GP (standardized mortality ratio [SMR], 1.43; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04-1.92. Men had comparable mortality to GP (SMR, 1.22; 95% CI, 0.82-1.75, but, in women, the mortality rate was double (SMR, 2.17; 95% CI, 1.21-3.57. Patients with renal risk factors such as initial renal dysfunction (estimated glomerular filgration rate <60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2; SMR, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.13-2.46, systolic blood pressure ≥ 140 mmHg (SMR, 1.88; 95% CI, 1.19-2.82 or proteinuria ≥ 1 g/day (SMR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.16-2.29 had an elevated mortality rate. Patients with preserved renal function, normotension, and proteinuria <1 g/day, however, had a similar mortality rate to GP. When risk stratification was performed by counting the number of major risk factors present at diagnosis, low-risk IgAN patients had a mortality rate equal to that of GP, whereas high-risk patients had a mortality rate higher than that of GP. This investigation demonstrated that overall mortality in IgAN patients was higher than that of GP. Women and patients with renal risk factors had a higher mortality than that of GP, Therefore, strategies optimized to alleviate major renal risk factors are warranted to reduce patient mortality.

  20. Distant outcomes of the Chiari osteotomy 30 years follow up evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piontek, Tomasz; Szulc, Andrzej; Głowacki, Maciej; Strzyzewski, Wojciech

    2006-02-28

    Background. The aim of my paper was to assess distant treatment results of patients who were treated because of hip displasia and the Chiari osteotomy was performed on those patients. Material and methods. I evaluated treatment outcomes of 27 patients who were treated at Poznan University of Medical Sciences, Clinic of Orthopedics, in 1965-1990. The Chiari osteotomy was performed on all patients for hip decenteration or hip subluxation after developmental displasia. 34 hips were evaluated (20 female and 7 male). The average age of patients was 13 years in the moment of the operation. The follow up examination was conducted 10-36 years after the Chiari osteotomy Results. After many years (30 years after the operation on the average), 37% of patients could fit into groups of very good and good results. I could assess the hips before the operation using only parameters marked on anteroposterior films. The radiographs of the hips showed displasia characterized by shallowness and steepness of the acetabulum, an increased apparent neck-corpus angle, low submersion of the femoral head in the acetabulum, and insufficient coverage of the femoral head by the acetabulum. On the radiographs taken one year after the operation I observed very good coverage of the femoral head proved by higher values (above quota) of the Wiberg angle, the Sharp angle, the Heyman and Herndon acetabulum-head indicator. I defined also a course of the osteotomy drafting an osteotomy angle, setting a degree of bone fragments displacement (medialisation), and a height of the osteotomy. Conclusions. 1. The Chiari osteotomy as a hip saving operation allows patients to function in satisfactory clinical conditions for many years. 2. When conducted correctly, the Chiari osteotomy considerably improves femoral head coverage not only in the frontal plane but also in the transverse plane. 3. Too wide osteotomy angle, more than 20 degrees , further than 50% displacement of a distal bone fragment and too low

  1. Eco-region dependent lengthening of vegetation period over the past 30 years in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garonna, I.; De Jong, R.; De Wit, A.; Mücher, C. A.; Schmid, B.; Schaepman, M. E.

    2013-12-01

    Land Surface Phenology (LSP) is the most direct representation of intra-annual dynamics of vegetated land surfaces as observed from satellite observations. As such, LSP plays a key role in understanding the terrestrial carbon budget, as well as the response of terrestrial ecosystems to environmental change. Various studies have highlighted significant increases in vegetation activity over time (i.e. greening) over Europe in recent decades (e.g. Stöckli and Vidale, 2004), associated both with climatic changes and with large-scale human interventions including land-use change (de Jong et al., 2013). In this study, we characterize LSP changes in Europe's eco-regions for the last 30 years. We used the latest version of the 8-km Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index dataset (third generation, or NDVI-3g) to retrieve LSP metrics for Europe for the last three decades (1982-2011). Each year of NDVI data was processed using the Harmonic Analysis of Time Series (HANTS) algorithm, producing smooth NDVI annual profiles on a pixel-by-pixel basis. In order to derive LSP metrics for each year, namely Start, End and Length of Growing Season, we selected the Midpoint-pixel local threshold method, based on the White et al. (2009) inter-comparison. A landscape-based stratification, using the European Landscape Classification (LANMAP) (Mücher et al., 2010) allowed us to examine LSP characteristics and trends for the different European eco-regions. We demonstrate significant shifts in LSP metrics over the study period, with a general lengthening of the growing season in Europe of approximately 0.4 days year-1. LSP trends varied significantly between eco-regions, and we discuss potential reasons for these spatially diverse trends. de Jong, R., et al. (2013), Spatial relationship between climatologies and changes in global vegetation activity, Global Change Biology, 19(6), 1953-1964. Mücher, C. A., J. A. Klijn, D. M. Wascher, and

  2. Assessing future climatic changes of rainfall extremes at small spatio-temporal scales

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen; Madsen, Henrik;

    2013-01-01

    in the occurrence of rainfall extremes of over a 150-year period, but significantly different changes in the magnitudes. The physical processes behind convective rainfall extremes generate a distinctive spatial inter-site correlation structure for extreme events. All analysed RCM rainfall extremes, however, show...... a clear deviation from this correlation structure for sub-daily rainfalls, partly because RCM output represents areal rainfall intensities and partly due to well-known inadequacies in the convective parameterization of RCMs. The results highlight the problem urban designers are facing when using RCM......Climate change is expected to influence the occurrence and magnitude of rainfall extremes and hence the flood risks in cities. Major impacts of an increased pluvial flood risk are expected to occur at hourly and sub-hourly resolutions. This makes convective storms the dominant rainfall type...

  3. Hybrid Wavelet-Postfix-GP Model for Rainfall Prediction of Anand Region of India

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    Vipul K. Dabhi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available An accurate prediction of rainfall is crucial for national economy and management of water resources. The variability of rainfall in both time and space makes the rainfall prediction a challenging task. The present work investigates the applicability of a hybrid wavelet-postfix-GP model for daily rainfall prediction of Anand region using meteorological variables. The wavelet analysis is used as a data preprocessing technique to remove the stochastic (noise component from the original time series of each meteorological variable. The Postfix-GP, a GP variant, and ANN are then employed to develop models for rainfall using newly generated subseries of meteorological variables. The developed models are then used for rainfall prediction. The out-of-sample prediction performance of Postfix-GP and ANN models is compared using statistical measures. The results are comparable and suggest that Postfix-GP could be explored as an alternative tool for rainfall prediction.

  4. Relationships between atmospheric circulation indices and rainfall in Northern Algeria and comparison of observed and RCM-generated rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taibi, S.; Meddi, M.; Mahé, G.; Assani, A.

    2015-09-01

    This work aims, as a first step, to analyze rainfall variability in Northern Algeria, in particular extreme events, during the period from 1940 to 2010. Analysis of annual rainfall shows that stations in the northwest record a significant decrease in rainfall since the 1970s. Frequencies of rainy days for each percentile (5th, 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, 95th, and 99th) and each rainfall interval class (1-5, 5-10, 10-20, 20-50, and ≥50 mm) do not show a significant change in the evolution of daily rainfall. The Tenes station is the only one to show a significant decrease in the frequency of rainy days up to the 75th percentile and for the 10-20-mm interval class. There is no significant change in the temporal evolution of extreme events in the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles. The relationships between rainfall variability and general atmospheric circulation indices for interannual and extreme event variability are moderately influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Mediterranean Oscillation. Significant correlations are observed between the Southern Oscillation Index and annual rainfall in the northwestern part of the study area, which is likely linked with the decrease in rainfall in this region. Seasonal rainfall in Northern Algeria is affected by the Mediterranean Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation in the west. The ENSEMBLES regional climate models (RCMs) are assessed using the bias method to test their ability to reproduce rainfall variability at different time scales. The Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM), Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich (ETHZ), and Forschungszentrum Geesthacht (GKSS) models yield the least biased results.

  5. The asymmetry of rainfall process

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YU RuCong; YUAN WeiHua; LI Jian

    2013-01-01

    Using hourly station rain gauge data in the warm season (May-October) during 1961-2006,the climatological features of the evolution of the rainfall process are analyzed by compositing rainfall events centered on the maximum hourly rainfall amount of each event.The results reveal that the rainfall process is asymmetric,which means rainfall events usually reach the maximum in a short period and then experience a relatively longer retreat to the end of the event.The effects of rainfall intensity,duration and peak time,as well as topography,are also considered.It is found that the asymmetry is more obvious in rainfall events with strong intensity and over areas with complex terrain,such as the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau,the Hengduan Mountains,and the Yungui Plateau.The asymmetry in short-duration rainfall is more obvious than that in long-duration rainfall,but the regional differences are weaker.The rainfall events that reach the maximum during 14:00-02:00 LST exhibit the strongest asymmetry and those during 08:00-14:00 LST show the weakest asymmetry.The rainfall intensity at the peak time stands out,which means that the rainfall intensity increases and decreases quickly both before and after the peak.These results can improve understanding of the rainfall process and provide metrics for the evaluation of climate models.Moreover,the strong asymmetry of the rainfall process should be highly noted when taking measures to defending against geological hazards,such as collapses,landslides and debris flows throughout southwestern China.

  6. A 30-year perspective on psychosocial issues in lung cancer: how lung cancer "Came out of the Closet".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, Talia; Weinberger, Mark; Schwerd, Arielle M; Holland, Jimmie

    2012-11-01

    Psychological responses to lung cancer have changed over the past 30 years as perceptions of the disease have changed. Previously seen as a fatal diagnosis, it is now regarded as a cancer whose treatment is increasingly effective as the science of the disease advances. The stigma of smoking is diminishing as more is learned about genetic factors and as more nonsmokers are diagnosed. Support groups are now widely available. The increasing social support and greater knowledge of lung cancer provide a more supportive environment in which patients cope with lung cancer today compared with 30 years ago.

  7. Terrestrial cosmogenic 3He: where are we 30 years after its discovery?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blard, Pierre-Henri; Pik, Raphaël; Farley, Kenneth A.; Lavé, Jérôme; Marrocchi, Yves

    2016-04-01

    It is now 30 years since cosmogenic 3He has been detected for the first time in a terrestrial sample (Kurz, 1986). 3He is now a widely used geochemical tool in many fields of Earth sciences: volcanology, tectonics, paleoclimatology. 3He has the advantage to have a high "production rate" to "detection limit" ratio, allowing surfaces as young as hundred of years to be dated. Although its nuclear stability implies several limitations, it moreover represents a useful alternative to 10Be in mafic environments. This contribution is a review of the progresses that have been accomplished since this discovery, and discuss strategies to improve both the accuracy and the precision of this geochronometer. 1) Measurement of cosmogenic 3He Correction of magmatic 3He. To estimate the non-cosmogenic magmatic 3He, Kurz (1986) invented a two steps method involving crushing of phenocrysts (to analyze the isotopic ratio of the magmatic component), followed by a subsequent melting of the sample, to extract the remaining components, including the cosmogenic 3He: 3Hec = 3Hemelt -4Hemelt x (3He/4He)magmatic (1) Several studies suggested that the preliminary crushing may induce a loss of cosmogenic 3He (Hilton et al., 1993; Yokochi et al., 2005; Blard et al., 2006), implying an underestimate of the cosmogenic 3He measurement. However, subsequent work did not replicate these observations (Blard et al., 2008; Goerhing et al., 2010), suggesting an influence of the used apparatus. An isochron method (by directly melting several phenocrysts aliquots) is an alternative to avoid the preliminary crushing step (Blard and Pik, 2008). Atmospheric contamination. Protin et al. (in press) provides robust evidences for a large and irreversible contamination of atmospheric helium on silicate surfaces. This unexpected behavior may reconcile the contrasted observations about the amplitude of crushing loss. This undesirable atmospheric contamination is negligible if grain fractions smaller than 150 mm are

  8. Terrestrial cosmogenic 3He: where are we 30 years after its discovery?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blard, Pierre-Henri; Pik, Raphaël; Farley, Kenneth A.; Lavé, Jérôme; Marrocchi, Yves

    2016-04-01

    It is now 30 years since cosmogenic 3He has been detected for the first time in a terrestrial sample (Kurz, 1986). 3He is now a widely used geochemical tool in many fields of Earth sciences: volcanology, tectonics, paleoclimatology. 3He has the advantage to have a high "production rate" to "detection limit" ratio, allowing surfaces as young as hundred of years to be dated. Although its nuclear stability implies several limitations, it moreover represents a useful alternative to 10Be in mafic environments. This contribution is a review of the progresses that have been accomplished since this discovery, and discuss strategies to improve both the accuracy and the precision of this geochronometer. 1) Measurement of cosmogenic 3He Correction of magmatic 3He. To estimate the non-cosmogenic magmatic 3He, Kurz (1986) invented a two steps method involving crushing of phenocrysts (to analyze the isotopic ratio of the magmatic component), followed by a subsequent melting of the sample, to extract the remaining components, including the cosmogenic 3He: 3Hec = 3Hemelt ‑4Hemelt x (3He/4He)magmatic (1) Several studies suggested that the preliminary crushing may induce a loss of cosmogenic 3He (Hilton et al., 1993; Yokochi et al., 2005; Blard et al., 2006), implying an underestimate of the cosmogenic 3He measurement. However, subsequent work did not replicate these observations (Blard et al., 2008; Goerhing et al., 2010), suggesting an influence of the used apparatus. An isochron method (by directly melting several phenocrysts aliquots) is an alternative to avoid the preliminary crushing step (Blard and Pik, 2008). Atmospheric contamination. Protin et al. (in press) provides robust evidences for a large and irreversible contamination of atmospheric helium on silicate surfaces. This unexpected behavior may reconcile the contrasted observations about the amplitude of crushing loss. This undesirable atmospheric contamination is negligible if grain fractions smaller than 150 mm are

  9. A retrospective analysis of heterophoria values in a clinical population aged 18 to 30 years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N.T. Makgaba

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Information on heterophoria values in South Africans  is  scanty. The  purpose  of  this  paper therefore, is to present information on the distribution of heterophoria in a clinical popula-tion aged 18 to 30 years, which hitherto is not available. The data presented here was obtained from  the  record  cards  of  475  black  South African  patients  examined  at  the  Optometry clinic, University of Limpopo (Turfloop cam-pus between 2000 and 2005. The patients were examined by final year students under the supervision  of  qualified  optometrists.  Heterophoria was  measured  for  each  patient  using  the  von Graefe  method.  The  horizontal  heterophoria for distance vision (6 m ranged from 16 prism diopters (pd esophoria to 12 pd exophoria with a mean of 0.74 pd exophoria (SD = ± 2.84 pd. For  distance  vision,  esophoria  ranged  from 0.5 to 16 pd with a mean of 3.08 pd (SD = ± 3.09, while exophoria ranged from 0.5 pd to 12 pd with a mean of 2.21 pd (SD = 1.82 pd. For near vision (0.4 m, the horizontal phorias ranged from 17 pd esophoria to 15 pd exopho-ria with a mean of 3.84 pd exophoria (SD = ± 4.80 pd. The near esophorias ranged from 0.5 to 17 pd with a mean 4.88 pd (SD = ± 3.41, while the exophorias ranged from 1.0 to 15 pd with a mean of 6.30 pd (SD = ± 2.58. Vertical heterophoria for distance vision ranged from 5 to 3 pd right hyperphoria with a mean of 0.05 pd right hyperphoria (SD = ± 0.76 whereas at near it ranged from 4 to 6 pd right hyperphoria with a mean of 0.08 pd right hypophoria (SD =  ±  0.96.  The  distributions  of  heterophoria at distance and near were non-normal.  There was  no  significant  gender  variation  in  the horizontal  values  for  distance  vision  and  the vertical  (distance  and  near  ones.  However, there was a statistically significant gender varia-tion  in  the  near  horizontal  values  (p

  10. 30 Years – 20 State DOTs: Trends in Pavement Management observed through real world Implementation at the State DOT Level

    OpenAIRE

    Zavitski, Jeffrey L.; Piane, Robert R.

    2013-01-01

    Since the first International Conference on Managing Pavement Assets 30 years ago in 1985, there has been continuous enhancement and evolution of pavement management system (PMS) technology to produce more effective recommendations coming out of an agency's PMS. Improvements in data collection, performance measures, deterioration modeling, dynamic segmentation, treatment algorithms, triggering mechanisms and optimization technologies have led to significant improvements in PMS strategy recomm...

  11. 30 years after Chernobyl. What would we make better today?; 30 Jahre nach Tschernobyl. Was wuerden wir heute besser machen?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bieringer, Jacqueline [Bundesamt fuer Strahlenschutz, Freiburg (Germany). Fachgebiet SW 2.5; Hajek, Michael [Oesterreichischer Verband fuer Strahlenschutz, Wien (Austria). Vienna International Centre; Maringer, Franz Josef [BEV - Bundesamt fuer Eich- und Vermessungswesen, Wien (Austria). Referat fuer ionisierende Strahlung und Radioaktivitaet; Murith, Christophe [Bundesamt fuer Gesundheit (BAG), Bern (Switzerland). Abt. Strahlenschutz; Steinkopff, Thomas [Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach (Germany); Wershofen, Herbert [Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt, Braunschweig (Germany). Lab. 6.301; Hefner, Alfred; Maushart, Rupprecht; Steger, Ferdinand

    2016-05-01

    The reactions of the authorities responsible for the measurements of radioactivity in the environment in Germany, Switzerland and Austria ore shown. The further development of the readiness and the possibilities to measure in the last 30 years are described. Also the question of activity measurements after a nuclear accident by single members of the population is dealt with.

  12. Hard and soft tissue imaging of the temporomandibular joint 30 years after diagnosis of osteoarthrosis and internal derangement

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    deLeeuw, R; Boering, G; vanderKuijl, B; Stegenga, B

    1996-01-01

    Purpose: This article describes the clinical and imaging findings in the temporomandibular joints (TMJs) of patients 30 years after the initial diagnosis of osteoarthrosis and internal derangement. Patients and Methods: Fifty-five TMJs with a history of osteoarthrosis and internal derangement and 37

  13. Delimiting homogeneous regions using the multifractal properties of validated rainfall data series

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Marín, A. P.; Estévez, J.; Medina-Cobo, M. T.; Ayuso-Muñoz, J. L.

    2015-10-01

    In this work, a regional frequency analysis of extreme annual rainfall data in Malaga (Southern Spain) has been performed. Rainfall records have been validated, applying various quality control tests as a pre-requisite before their use, ensuring their reliability and discarding anomalous data. For grouping the stations into potential homogeneous regions, the multifractal properties of daily rainfall data series recorded at 72 locations have been studied. The scaling of the rainfall moments has been analyzed and the empirical moments scaling exponent functions have been obtained. The corresponding multifractal values have been used to group stations into regions, resulting some of them homogeneous.

  14. A new method for spatio-temporal prediction of rainfall- induced landslide

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DING; Jixin; YANG; Zhifa; SHANG; Yanjun; ZHOU; Shenghua; YIN; Juntao

    2006-01-01

    Geological condition and rainfall are two most principal conditions inducing landslides in the Chongqing region. By analyzing the forming conditions of rainfall-induced landslides, a new method for spatio-temporal prediction of rainfall-induced landslide is brought forward on the basis of grading and overlapping geological condition and rainfall factor in this paper. At first, semi-quantitative assessment and grading for the geological condition of a certain area or slope can be carried out with the multi-factor interactive matrix. Then the severity of rainfall in that area is grading according to the maximum daily rainfall and the total rainfall in a rainfall course. Finally, the "landslide probability judgement factor" can be worked out through grading and overlapping "geological condition influencing factor" and "rainfall influencing factor", by which the landslide can be graded into 4 grades, they are landslide extremely easily happening, landslide easily happening, landslide difficultly happening and landslide hardly ever happening respectively. More accurate spatio-temporal prediction of rainfall-induced landslides can come true on the ground of detailed geological survey of some dangerous slopes in an area and more precise weather forecast. Finally, the reliability and feasibility of carrying out the spatio-temporal prediction of rainfall-induced landslides with the method of "two factors" grading and overlapping are validated by the example of Jipazi landslide.

  15. Recent Trends in the Regime of Extreme Rainfall in the West African Sahel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lebel, T.; Panthou, G.; Vischel, T.; Quantin, G.

    2015-12-01

    West Africa is known for having experienced an extreme drought starting at the end of the 1960s that is recognized to be the greatest climatic signal at regional scale since the beginning of meteorological measurements. Despite a moderate recovery of the annual precipitations since the 1990s in the Central and Eastern Sahel, rainfall over the last two decades remains lower by 15% than during the period 1950-1970. Paradoxically these persisting dry conditions have been accompanied by a dramatic increase of flood fatalities especially over the recent 10 years. Using a homogeneous dataset of 41 daily rainfall series covering the period 1950-2010, an integrated regional approach based on the statistical extreme value theory was then used to reduce the local sampling effects and to provide robust estimates of intense rainfall distributions to be analyzed in conjunction with the annual rainfall series. This led to identify some key rainfall regime characteristics related to the decadal scale rainfall variability over the region. The main factor of the rainfall deficit during the great 1970-2000 drought was a lower occurrence of rainy days, extreme rainy days being the most affected. Over the last ten years, the Sahelian rainfall regime is characterized by a lasting deficit of the number of rainy days, while at the same time the extreme rainfall occurrence is on the rise. As a consequence the proportion of annual rainfall associated with extreme rainfall has increased from 17% in the 1970-1990 years to 19% in the 1991-2000 years and to 22% in the 2001-2010 years. This tends to support the idea that a more extreme climate has been observed over the last 10 years, with a persisting deficit of the occurrence of rainfall associated with an increase of the occurrence of extreme daily rainfall. Our results also suggest that the intensification of the precipitation regime has likely contributed to the aggravation of the hydrological risks in the Sahel.

  16. Rainfall analysis for Indian monsoon region using the merged rain gauge observations and satellite estimates: Evaluation of monsoon rainfall features

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    S K Roy Bhowmik; Ananda K Das

    2007-06-01

    Objective analysis of daily rainfall at the resolution of 1° grid for the Indian monsoon region has been carried out merging dense land rainfall observations and INSAT derived precipitation estimates. This daily analysis, being based on high dense rain gauge observations was found to be very realistic and able to reproduce detailed features of Indian summer monsoon. The inter-comparison with the observations suggests that the new analysis could distinctly capture characteristic features of the summer monsoon such as north–south oriented belt of heavy rainfall along the Western Ghats with sharp gradient of rainfall between the west coast heavy rain region and the rain shadow region to the east, pockets of heavy rainfall along the location of monsoon trough/low, over the east central parts of the country, over north–east India, along the foothills of Himalayas and over the north Bay of Bengal. When this product was used to assess the quality of other available standard climate products (CMAP and ECMWF reanalysis) at the grid resolution of 2.5°, it was found that the orographic heavy rainfall along Western Ghats of India was poorly identified by them. However, the GPCC analysis (gauge only) at the resolution of 1° grid closely discerns the new analysis. This suggests that there is a need for a higher resolution analysis with adequate rain gauge observations to retain important aspects of the summer monsoon over India. The case studies illustrated show that the daily analysis is able to capture large-scale as well as mesoscale features of monsoon precipitation systems. This study with data of two seasons (2001 and 2003) has shown sufficiently promising results for operational application, particularly for the validation of NWP models.

  17. Bringing together monitoring of soil erosion and rainfall simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engels, B.; Seeger, M.; Ries, J. B.

    2009-04-01

    Soil erosion is a non linear process depending on soil conditions and the rainfall characteristics. As a consequence, the monitoring and quantification of soil erosion and sediment yield faces great difficulties related to the occurrence of erosional events and the variability of soil charcateristics. Numerous research groups have been using rainfall simulators to quantify soil erosion under reproducible conditions, especially facing the comparision of different land use and soil management systems. But there is only little evidence of the comparability of the results of rainfall simulations with the real soil erosion. As a consequene, the following questions arise: reflect both methods the same or similar process complexes? Which orders of magnitude or overland flow and erosion do they reflect? Resuming: are the results comparable? For adressing this questions, we compared two adyacent parcels on a SSW exposed slope (steepness 35 %) on slate vineyard soils. One of the parcels was stubbed right before the installation of the sediment traps, the other one remained unchanged. 4 rainfall collectors were installed on soil surface, and daily rainfall amount was recorded in 3 meteorological stations only few kilometers away. The traps and the collectors were cleaned out after every large rainfall event. 15 rainfall simulations (4 on the unchanged area, 11 on the stubbed surface) were performed with a portable, pressure driven nozzle rinfall simulator, generating rainfall with an intensity of 40 mm h-1 during 30 min on a plot with 60 cm diameter. Surface runoff and sediment yield was collected in 5 min intervals during the experiment's duration. The runoff collected in traps on the stubbed parcel was 10 to 15 times higher than in the unchanged vineyard. Soil loss was up to 6 times higher. Contrasting with this, the results from rainfall simulations showed a very much lower difference between both sites. The portable rainfall simulator used in this study is able to reflect

  18. Investigation on rainfall extremes events trough a geoadditive model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bocci, C.; Caporali, E.; Petrucci, A.; Rossi, G.

    2012-04-01

    Rainfall can be considered a very important variable, and rainfall extreme events analysis of great concern for the enormous impacts that they may have on everyday life particularly when related to intense rainfalls and floods, and hydraulic risk management. On the catchment area of Arno River in Tuscany, Central Italy, a geoadditive mixed model of rainfall extremes is developed. Most of the territory of Arno River has suffered in the past of many severe hydro-geological events, with high levels of risk due to the vulnerability of a unique artistic and cultural heritage. The area has a complex topography that greatly influences the precipitation regime. The dataset is composed by the time series of the annual maxima of daily rainfall recorded in about 400 rain gauges, spatially distributed over the catchment area of about 8.800 km2. The record period covers mainly the second half of 20th century. The rainfall observations are assumed to follow generalized extreme value distributions whose locations are spatially dependent and where the dependence is captured using a geoadditive model. In particular, since rainfall has a natural spatial domain and a significant spatial variability, a spatial hierarchical model for extremes is used. The spatial hierarchical models, in fact, take into account data from all locations, borrowing strength from neighbouring locations when they estimate parameters and are of great interest when small set of data is available, as in the case of rainfall extreme values. Together with rain gauges location variables further physiographic variables are investigated as explanation variables. The implemented geoadditive mixed model of spatially referenced time series of rainfall extreme values, is able to capture the spatial dynamics of the rainfall extreme phenomenon. Since the model shows evidence of a spatial trend in the rainfall extreme dynamic, the temporal dynamic and the time influence can be also taken into account. The implemented

  19. Enhancing a rainfall-runoff model to assess the impacts of BMPs and LID practices on storm runoff.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yaoze; Ahiablame, Laurent M; Bralts, Vincent F; Engel, Bernard A

    2015-01-01

    Best management practices (BMPs) and low impact development (LID) practices are increasingly being used as stormwater management techniques to reduce the impacts of urban development on hydrology and water quality. To assist planners and decision-makers at various stages of development projects (planning, implementation, and evaluation), user-friendly tools are needed to assess the effectiveness of BMPs and LID practices. This study describes a simple tool, the Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment-LID (L-THIA-LID), which is enhanced with additional BMPs and LID practices, improved approaches to estimate hydrology and water quality, and representation of practices in series (meaning combined implementation). The tool was used to evaluate the performance of BMPs and LID practices individually and in series with 30 years of daily rainfall data in four types of idealized land use units and watersheds (low density residential, high density residential, industrial, and commercial). Simulation results were compared with the results of other published studies. The simulated results showed that reductions in runoff volume and pollutant loads after implementing BMPs and LID practices, both individually and in series, were comparable with the observed impacts of these practices. The L-THIA-LID 2.0 model is capable of assisting decision makers in evaluating environmental impacts of BMPs and LID practices, thereby improving the effectiveness of stormwater management decisions.

  20. Estimating Flood Quantiles on the Basis of Multi-Event Rainfall Simulation – Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jarosińska Elżbieta

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an approach to estimating the probability distribution of annual discharges Q based on rainfall-runoff modelling using multiple rainfall events. The approach is based on the prior knowledge about the probability distribution of annual maximum daily totals of rainfall P in a natural catchment, random disaggregation of the totals into hourly values, and rainfall-runoff modelling. The presented Multi-Event Simulation of Extreme Flood method (MESEF combines design event method based on single-rainfall event modelling, and continuous simulation method used for estimating the maximum discharges of a given exceedance probability using rainfall-runoff models. In the paper, the flood quantiles were estimated using the MESEF method, and then compared to the flood quantiles estimated using classical statistical method based on observed data.

  1. Spatio-temporal variability of the polar middle atmosphere. Insights from over 30 years of research satellite observations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lahoz, W.A.; Orsolini, Y.J.; Manney, G.L.; Minschwaner, K.; Allen, D.R.; Errera, Q.; Jackson, D.R.; Lambert, A.; Lee, J.; Pumphrey, H.; Schwartz, M.; Wu, D.

    2012-07-01

    We discuss the insights that research satellite observations from the last 30 years have provided on the spatio-temporal variability of the polar middle atmosphere. Starting from the time of the NASA LIMS (Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere) and TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) instruments, both launched in 1978, we show how these observations have augmented our knowledge of the polar middle atmosphere, in particular how information on ozone and tracers has augmented our knowledge of: (i) the spatial and temporal characteristics of the wintertime polar stratosphere and the summertime circulation; and (ii) the roles of chemistry and transport in determining the stratospheric ozone distribution. We address the increasing joint use of observations and models, in particular in data assimilation, in contributing to this understanding. Finally, we outline requirements to allow continuation of the wealth of information on the polar middle atmosphere provided by research satellites over the last 30 years.(Author)

  2. Managing Daily Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Duchenne / Managing Daily Life Print Email Managing Daily Life Environmental accessibility As the person with Duchenne starts ... such as wider doorways and ramps, can make life easier once the person with Duchenne cannot climb ...

  3. Daily Weather Records

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These daily weather records were compiled from a subset of stations in the Global Historical Climatological Network (GHCN)-Daily dataset. A weather record is...

  4. What rainfall events trigger landslides on the West Coast US?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biasutti, Michela; Seager, Richard; Kirschbaum, Dalia

    2016-04-01

    A dataset of landslide occurrences compiled by collating google news reports covers 9 full years of data. We show that, while this compilation cannot provide consistent and widespread monitoring everywhere, it is adequate to capture the distribution of events in the major urban areas of the West Coast US and it can be used to provide a quantitative relationship between landslides and rainfall events. The case of the Seattle metropolitan area is presented as an example. The landslide dataset shows a clear seasonality in landslide occurrence, corresponding to the seasonality of rainfall, modified by the accumulation of soil moisture as winter progresses. Interannual variability of landslide occurrences is also linked to interannual variability of monthly rainfall. In most instances, landslides are clustered on consecutive days or at least within the same pentad and correspond to days of large rainfall accumulation at the regional scale. A joint analysis of the landslide data and of the high-resolution PRISM daily rainfall accumulation shows that on days when landslides occurred, the distribution of rainfall was shifted, with rainfall accumulation higher than 10mm/day being more common. Accumulations above 50mm/day much increase the probability of landslides, including the possibility of a major landslide event (one with multiple landslides in a day). The synoptic meteorological conditions associated with these major events show a mid-tropospheric ridge to the south of the target area steering a surface low and bringing enhanced precipitable water towards the Pacific North West. The interaction of the low-level flow with the local orography results in instances of a strong Puget Sound Convergence Zone, with widespread rainfall accumulation above 30mm/day and localized maxima as high as 100mm/day or more.

  5. Long term prognosis of women with breast cancer in New Zealand: study of survival to 30 years.

    OpenAIRE

    Hibberd, A. D.; Horwood, L J; Wells, J.E.

    1983-01-01

    The long term prognosis of women with breast cancer was studied by analysing retrospectively the 30 year survival of 2019 women with histologically proved breast cancer recorded at the National Cancer Registry in New Zealand between 1950 and 1954. Excess mortality rates for successive five year survival cohorts were calculated from the survival data. From the total cohort the excess mortality rate fell rapidly during the first 10 years and then became low after 20 years. There were no signifi...

  6. Enhanced Orographic Tropical Rainfall: An Study of the Colombia's rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peñaranda, V. M.; Hoyos Ortiz, C. D.; Mesa, O. J.

    2015-12-01

    Convection in tropical regions may be enhanced by orographic barriers. The orographic enhancement is an intensification of rain rates caused by the forced lifting of air over a mountainous structure. Orographic heavy rainfall events, occasionally, comes along by flooding, debris flow and substantial amount of looses, either economics or human lives. Most of the heavy convective rainfall events, occurred in Colombia, have left a lot of victims and material damages by flash flooding. An urgent action is required by either scientific communities or society, helping to find preventive solutions against these kind of events. Various scientific literature reports address the feedback process between the convection and the local orographic structures. The orographic enhancement could arise by several physical mechanism: precipitation transport on leeward side, convection triggered by the forcing of air over topography, the seeder-feeder mechanism, among others. The identification of the physical mechanisms for orographic enhancement of rainfall has not been studied over Colombia. As far as we know, orographic convective tropical rainfall is just the main factor for the altitudinal belt of maximum precipitation, but the lack of detailed hydro-meteorological measurements have precluded a complete understanding of the tropical rainfall in Colombia and its complex terrain. The emergence of the multifractal theory for rainfall has opened a field of research which builds a framework for parsimonious modeling of physical process. Studies about the scaling behavior of orographic rainfall have found some modulating functions between the rainfall intensity probability distribution and the terrain elevation. The overall objective is to advance in the understanding of the orographic influence over the Colombian tropical rainfall based on observations and scaling-analysis techniques. We use rainfall maps, weather radars scans and ground-based rainfall data. The research strategy is

  7. Markov modulated Poisson process models incorporating covariates for rainfall intensity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thayakaran, R; Ramesh, N I

    2013-01-01

    Time series of rainfall bucket tip times at the Beaufort Park station, Bracknell, in the UK are modelled by a class of Markov modulated Poisson processes (MMPP) which may be thought of as a generalization of the Poisson process. Our main focus in this paper is to investigate the effects of including covariate information into the MMPP model framework on statistical properties. In particular, we look at three types of time-varying covariates namely temperature, sea level pressure, and relative humidity that are thought to be affecting the rainfall arrival process. Maximum likelihood estimation is used to obtain the parameter estimates, and likelihood ratio tests are employed in model comparison. Simulated data from the fitted model are used to make statistical inferences about the accumulated rainfall in the discrete time interval. Variability of the daily Poisson arrival rates is studied.

  8. Rainfall Hazards Prevention based on a Local Model Forecasting System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buendia, F.; Ojeda, B.; Buendia Moya, G.; Tarquis, A. M.; Andina, D.

    2009-04-01

    Rainfall is one of the most important events of human life and society. Some rainfall phenomena like floods or hailstone are a threat to the agriculture, business and even life. However in the meteorological observatories there are methods to detect and alarm about this kind of events, nowadays the prediction techniques based on synoptic measurements need to be improved to achieve medium term feasible forecasts. Any deviation in the measurements or in the model description makes the forecast to diverge in time from the real atmosphere evolution. In this paper the advances in a local rainfall forecasting system based on time series estimation with General Regression Neural Networks are presented. The system is introduced, explaining the measurements, methodology and the current state of the development. The aim of the work is to provide a complementary criteria to the current forecast systems, based on the daily atmosphere observation and tracking over a certain place.

  9. Climate change in the next 30 years: What can a convection-permitting model tell us that we did not already know?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fosser, G.; Khodayar, S.; Berg, P.

    2016-06-01

    To investigate the climate change in the next 30 years over a complex terrain in southwestern Germany, simulations performed with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM at convection-permitting resolution are compared to simulations at 7 km resolution with parameterised convection. An earlier study has shown the main benefits of convection-permitting resolution in the hourly statistics and the diurnal cycle of precipitation intensities. Here, we investigate whether the improved simulation of precipitation in the convection-permitting model is affecting future climate projections in summer. Overall, the future scenario (ECHAM5 with A1B forcing) brings weak changes in mean precipitation, but stronger hourly intensities in the morning and less frequent but more intense daily precipitation. The two model simulations produce similar changes in climate, despite differences in their physical characteristics linked to the formation of convective precipitation. A significant increase in the morning precipitation probably due to large-scale forced convection is found when considering only the most extreme events (above 50 mm/day). In this case, even the diurnal cycles of precipitation and convection-related indices are similar between resolutions, leading to the conclusion that the 7 km model sufficiently resolves the most extreme convective events. In this region and time periods, the 7 km resolution is deemed sufficient for most assessments of near future precipitation change. However, conclusions could be dependent on the characteristics of the region of investigation.

  10. Thorotrast and in vivo thorium dioxide: numerical simulation of 30 years of alpha radiation absorption by the tissues near a large compact source

    CERN Document Server

    Bianconi, Andrea

    2014-01-01

    Background: The epidemiology of the slightly radioactive contrast agent named Thorotrast presents a very long latency period between the injection and the development of the related pathologies. It is an example of the more general problem posed by a radioactive internal contaminant whose effects are not noteworthy in the short term but become dramatic in the long period. A point that is still to be explored is fluctuations (in space and time) in the localized absorption of radiation by the tissues. Methods: A Monte Carlo simulation code has been developed to study over a 30 year period the daily absorption of alpha radiation by micrometer sized portions of tissue placed at a distance of 0-100 micrometers from a model source, that approximates a compact thorium dioxide source in liver or spleen whose size is larger or equal to 20 micrometers. The biological depletion of the daughter nuclei of the thorium series is taken into account. The initial condition assumes chemically purified natural thorium. Results: ...

  11. Variability in rainfall at monitoring stations and derivation of a long-term rainfall intensity record in the Grand Canyon Region, Arizona, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caster, Joshua; Sankey, Joel B.

    2016-04-11

    In this study, we examine rainfall datasets of varying temporal length, resolution, and spatial distribution to characterize rainfall depth, intensity, and seasonality for monitoring stations along the Colorado River within Marble and Grand Canyons. We identify maximum separation distances between stations at which rainfall measurements might be most useful for inferring rainfall characteristics at other locations. We demonstrate a method for applying relations between daily rainfall depth and intensity, from short-term high-resolution data to lower-resolution longer-term data, to synthesize a long-term record of daily rainfall intensity from 1950–2012. We consider the implications of our spatio-temporal characterization of rainfall for understanding local landscape change in sedimentary deposits and archaeological sites, and for better characterizing past and present rainfall and its potential role in overland flow erosion within the canyons. We find that rainfall measured at stations within the river corridor is spatially correlated at separation distances of tens of kilometers, and is not correlated at the large elevation differences that separate stations along the Colorado River from stations above the canyon rim. These results provide guidance for reasonable separation distances at which rainfall measurements at stations within the Grand Canyon region might be used to infer rainfall at other nearby locations along the river. Like other rugged landscapes, spatial variability between rainfall measured at monitoring stations appears to be influenced by canyon and rim physiography and elevation, with preliminary results suggesting the highest elevation landform in the region, the Kaibab Plateau, may function as an important orographic influence. Stations at specific locations within the canyons and along the river, such as in southern (lower) Marble Canyon and eastern (upper) Grand Canyon, appear to have strong potential to receive high-intensity rainfall that

  12. STUDY OF PREVALENCE OF DIABETES MELLITUS TYPE - 2 AND IMPAIRED GLUCOSE TOLERANCE AMONG ADULTS 30 YEARS ABOVE IN AN URBAN FIELD PRACTICE AREA OF KATIHAR MEDICAL COLLEGE

    OpenAIRE

    Shahid

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVES : 1) To determine the prevalence of diabetes mellitus Type - 2 in an urban population of age 30 year and above 2) To determine the prevalence of impaired an urban population of age 30 years and above 3) To study the association of various risk factors with diabe tes mellitus Type - 2 and Implored Glucose Tolerance. METHODOLOGY : A community based cross section study will be carried out in population 30 years above at Sharifganj with Dist...

  13. Simulation of extreme rainfall and projection of future changes using the GLIMCLIM model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rashid, Md. Mamunur; Beecham, Simon; Chowdhury, Rezaul Kabir

    2016-08-01

    In this study, the performance of the Generalized LInear Modelling of daily CLImate sequence (GLIMCLIM) statistical downscaling model was assessed to simulate extreme rainfall indices and annual maximum daily rainfall (AMDR) when downscaled daily rainfall from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCM) (four GCMs and two scenarios) output datasets and then their changes were estimated for the future period 2041-2060. The model was able to reproduce the monthly variations in the extreme rainfall indices reasonably well when forced by the NCEP reanalysis datasets. Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping (FAQM) was used to remove bias in the simulated daily rainfall when forced by CMIP5 GCMs, which reduced the discrepancy between observed and simulated extreme rainfall indices. Although the observed AMDR were within the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of the simulated AMDR, the model consistently under-predicted the inter-annual variability of AMDR. A non-stationary model was developed using the generalized linear model for local, shape and scale to estimate the AMDR with an annual exceedance probability of 0.01. The study shows that in general, AMDR is likely to decrease in the future. The Onkaparinga catchment will also experience drier conditions due to an increase in consecutive dry days coinciding with decreases in heavy (>long term 90th percentile) rainfall days, empirical 90th quantile of rainfall and maximum 5-day consecutive total rainfall for the future period (2041-2060) compared to the base period (1961-2000).

  14. Performance of High Resolution Satellite Rainfall Products over Data Scarce Parts of Eastern Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shimelis B. Gebere

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Accurate estimation of rainfall in mountainous areas is necessary for various water resource-related applications. Though rain gauges accurately measure rainfall, they are rarely found in mountainous regions and satellite rainfall data can be used as an alternative source over these regions. This study evaluated the performance of three high-resolution satellite rainfall products, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM 3B42, the Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP_MVK+, and the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely-Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN at daily, monthly, and seasonal time scales against rain gauge records over data-scarce parts of Eastern Ethiopia. TRMM 3B42 rain products show relatively better performance at the three time scales, while PERSIANN did much better than GSMaP. At the daily time scale, TRMM correctly detected 88% of the rainfall from the rain gauge. The correlation at the monthly time scale also revealed that the TRMM has captured the observed rainfall better than the other two. For Belg (short rain and Kiremt (long rain seasons, the TRMM did better than the others by far. However, during Bega (dry season, PERSIANN showed a relatively good estimate. At all-time scales, noticing the bias, TRMM tends to overestimate, while PERSIANN and GSMaP tend to underestimate the rainfall. The overall result suggests that monthly and seasonal TRMM rainfall performed better than daily rainfall. It has also been found that both GSMaP and PERSIANN performed better in relatively flat areas than mountainous areas. Before the practical use of TRMM, the RMSE value needs to be improved by considering the topography of the study area or adjusting the bias.

  15. Statistical downscaling of CMIP5 outputs for projecting future changes in rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rashid, Md. Mamunur, E-mail: mdmamunur.rashid@mymail.unisa.edu.au [Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095 (Australia); Beecham, Simon, E-mail: simon.beecham@unisa.edu.au [Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095 (Australia); Chowdhury, Rezaul K., E-mail: rezaulkabir@uaeu.ac.ae [Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095 (Australia); Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, PO Box 15551 (United Arab Emirates)

    2015-10-15

    A generalized linear model was fitted to stochastically downscaled multi-site daily rainfall projections from CMIP5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia to assess future changes to hydrologically relevant metrics. For this purpose three GCMs, two multi-model ensembles (one by averaging the predictors of GCMs and the other by regressing the predictors of GCMs against reanalysis datasets) and two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were considered. The downscaling model was able to reasonably reproduce the observed historical rainfall statistics when the model was driven by NCEP reanalysis datasets. Significant bias was observed in the rainfall when downscaled from historical outputs of GCMs. Bias was corrected using the Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping technique. Future changes in rainfall were computed from the bias corrected downscaled rainfall forced by GCM outputs for the period 2041–2060 and these were then compared to the base period 1961–2000. The results show that annual and seasonal rainfalls are likely to significantly decrease for all models and scenarios in the future. The number of dry days and maximum consecutive dry days will increase whereas the number of wet days and maximum consecutive wet days will decrease. Future changes of daily rainfall occurrence sequences combined with a reduction in rainfall amounts will lead to a drier catchment, thereby reducing the runoff potential. Because this is a catchment that is a significant source of Adelaide's water supply, irrigation water and water for maintaining environmental flows, an effective climate change adaptation strategy is needed in order to face future potential water shortages. - Highlights: • A generalized linear model was used for multi-site daily rainfall downscaling. • Rainfall was downscaled from CMIP5 GCM outputs. • Two multi-model ensemble approaches were used. • Bias was corrected using the Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping

  16. The spatial return level of aggregated hourly extreme rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaffie, Mardhiyyah; Eli, Annazirin; Wan Zin, Wan Zawiah; Jemain, Abdul Aziz

    2015-07-01

    This paper is intended to ascertain the spatial pattern of extreme rainfall distribution in Peninsular Malaysia at several short time intervals, i.e., on hourly basis. Motivation of this research is due to historical records of extreme rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia, whereby many hydrological disasters at this region occur within a short time period. The hourly periods considered are 1, 2, 3, 6, 12, and 24 h. Many previous hydrological studies dealt with daily rainfall data; thus, this study enables comparison to be made on the estimated performances between daily and hourly rainfall data analyses so as to identify the impact of extreme rainfall at a shorter time scale. Return levels based on the time aggregate considered are also computed. Parameter estimation using L-moment method for four probability distributions, namely, the generalized extreme value (GEV), generalized logistic (GLO), generalized Pareto (GPA), and Pearson type III (PE3) distributions were conducted. Aided with the L-moment diagram test and mean square error (MSE) test, GLO was found to be the most appropriate distribution to represent the extreme rainfall data. At most time intervals (10, 50, and 100 years), the spatial patterns revealed that the rainfall distribution across the peninsula differ for 1- and 24-h extreme rainfalls. The outcomes of this study would provide additional information regarding patterns of extreme rainfall in Malaysia which may not be detected when considering only a higher time scale such as daily; thus, appropriate measures for shorter time scales of extreme rainfall can be planned. The implementation of such measures would be beneficial to the authorities to reduce the impact of any disastrous natural event.

  17. Analyzing the Implications of Climate Data on the Rainfall Frequency Spectrum: Case Study of Knoxville, Tennessee and Surrounding Region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sylvester, Linda M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Omitaomu, Olufemi A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Parish, Esther S. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2016-09-01

    Modeled daily precipitation values are used to determine changes in percentile rainfall event depths, for planning and mitigation of stormwater runoff, over past (1980-2005) and future (2025-2050) periods for Knoxville, Tennessee and the surrounding area.

  18. A Conversation with the Richmonds on Their 30 Years of Service with the American Board of Cardiovascular Perfusion

    OpenAIRE

    Palmer, David A.; Mongero, Linda B.

    2009-01-01

    David A. PalmerLinda B. MongeroBeth A. Richmond, PhD, and Mark G. Richmond, EdD, Co-Executive Directors serving for the ABCP, have assumed this role for the past 30 years. Their experience working with a variety of perfusionists in the field influenced the profession and some of the professionals we view as perfusion leaders. Anyone with time working as a clinical perfusionist acknowledges the role they have had establishing the certification process and influencing perfusion education. The g...

  19. Selected compilation of clinical cases for over exposure workers of the Chinese nuclear industry in the past 30 years

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report is a professional reference book on clinical medical management of overexposed individuals. It collects the medical records of the cases accumulated in the past 30 years in nuclear industry including patients with internal contamination of radionuclide, with overexposed intake of natural uranium, with radiation skin injury and overdose external exposure. The report describes the clinical practical experience in prevention and treatment of internal contamination radiation injury, radiation skin injury, as well as radiation effect of overdose external exposure in the nuclear industry

  20. The decreasing importance of acidification episodes with recovery from acidification: an analysis of the 30-year record from Birkenes, Norway

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. F. Wright

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available The 30-year record 1975–2004 of weekly samples of streamwater chemistry from Birkenes, Norway, shows 106 acid episodes below the threshold of ANC –50 μeq l−1. The frequency, severity and duration of episodes have diminished since about 1990 due to chemical recovery following reduced deposition of sulphur. In particular SO4-driven episodes in the first runoff following drought have become less intense and less frequent, whereas episodes driven by climate (wind, high flow continue. The data show significant empirical relationships between strength of the driver, degree of chemical recovery, and severity of ANC depression.

  1. The decreasing importance of acidification episodes with recovery from acidification: an analysis of the 30-year record from Birkenes, Norway

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. F. Wright

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available The 30-year record 1975–2004 of weekly samples of streamwater chemistry from Birkenes, Norway, shows 106 acid episodes below the threshold of ANC−50 µeq l−1. The frequency, severity and duration of episodes have diminished since about 1990 due to chemical recovery following reduced deposition of sulphur. In particular SO4-driven episodes in the first runoff following drought have become less intense and less frequent, whereas episodes driven by climate (wind, high flow continue. The data show significant empirical relationships between strength of the driver, degree of chemical recovery, and severity of ANC depression.

  2. 30 years life with Chernobyl, 5 years life with Fukushima. Health consequences of the nuclear catastrophes of Chernobyl and Fukushima

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The IPPNW report on health consequences of the nuclear catastrophes of Chernobyl and Fukushima covers the following issues: Part.: 30 years life with Chernobyl: Summarized consequences of Chernobyl, the accident progression, basic data of the catastrophe, estimation of health hazards as a consequence of the severe accident of Chernobyl, health consequences for the liquidators, health consequences for the contaminated population, mutagenic and teratogenic effects. Part B: 5 years life with Fukushima: The start of the nuclear catastrophe, emissions and contamination, consequences of the nuclear catastrophe on human health, thyroid surveys in the prefecture Fukushima, consequences of the nuclear catastrophe on the ecosystem, outlook.

  3. Tertiary resurfacing after one of the first free flaps in Europe, a reflection on 30 years of microsurgical progress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hart, A M; Tollan, C J; Dabernig, J; Acland, R; Taggart, I

    2007-01-01

    Free flaps have been used for over 30 years. During this period, improved anatomical understanding has increased donor options and available pedicle lengths, permitting safer, single-stage reconstructions with simpler anastomoses. Refinements, such as perforator flaps in particular, have greatly improved donor morbidity, recipient site cosmesis, and the ability to replace 'like with like' while retaining options for innervation. This case highlights the evolution from one of Europe's first free tissue transfers, effectively a perforator flap, through the advent of free muscle flaps to the current generation of contourable perforator flaps. Free flap transfer has become increasingly sophisticated, safer, and more predictable, yet the potential quality of reconstructive outcome has changed little.

  4. Physical education curriculums in the educational institutions of Zakarpattia in the 20-30 years of the XX century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trifan A.

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The questions of history of introduction of the programs are analysed on a physical culture in educational establishments of Zakarpattia in 20-30 years of XX age. From 1924 on Zakarpattia the school programs on physical education were used only in incomplete middle schools and gymnasia. Basis of on-line tutorials and plans of that time was made by the elements of physical exercises, developed the Czech specialists. Directions of taking approach are rotined to school program development in modern education. A decision of the expounded problems in planning is necessary pre-condition of successful and effective educational process.

  5. Erosivity of rainfall in Lages, Santa Catarina, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jefferson Schick

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The erosive capacity of rainfall can be expressed by an index and knowing it allows recommendation of soil management and conservation practices to reduce water erosion. The objective of this study was to calculate various indices of rainfall erosivity in Lages, Santa Catarina, Brazil, identify the best one, and discover its temporal distribution. The study was conducted at the Center of Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences, Lages, Santa Catarina, using daily rainfall charts from 1989 to 2012. Using the computer program Chuveros , 107 erosivity indices were obtained, which were based on maximum intensity in 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45, 50, 55, 60, 70, 80, 90, 100, 110, 120, 135, 150, 165, 180, 210, and 240 min of duration and on the combination of these intensities with the kinetic energy obtained by the equations of Brown & Foster, Wagner & Massambani, and Wischmeier & Smith. The indices of the time period from 1993 to 2012 were correlated with the respective soil losses from the standard plot of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE in order to select the erosivity index for the region. Erosive rainfall accounted for 83 % of the mean annual total volume of 1,533 mm. The erosivity index (R factor of rainfall recommended for Lages is the EI30, whose mean annual value is 5,033 MJ mm ha-1 h-1, and of this value, 66 % occurs from September to February. Mean annual erosivity has a return period estimated at two years with a 50 % probability of occurrence.

  6. Rainfall variability modelling in Rwanda

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nduwayezu, E.; Kanevski, M.; Jaboyedoff, M.

    2012-04-01

    Support to climate change adaptation is a priority in many International Organisations meetings. But is the international approach for adaptation appropriate with field reality in developing countries? In Rwanda, the main problems will be heavy rain and/or long dry season. Four rainfall seasons have been identified, corresponding to the four thermal Earth ones in the south hemisphere: the normal season (summer), the rainy season (autumn), the dry season (winter) and the normo-rainy season (spring). The spatial rainfall decreasing from West to East, especially in October (spring) and February (summer) suggests an «Atlantic monsoon influence» while the homogeneous spatial rainfall distribution suggests an «Inter-tropical front » mechanism. The torrential rainfall that occurs every year in Rwanda disturbs the circulation for many days, damages the houses and, more seriously, causes heavy losses of people. All districts are affected by bad weather (heavy rain) but the costs of such events are the highest in mountains districts. The objective of the current research is to proceed to an evaluation of the potential rainfall risk by applying advanced geospatial modelling tools in Rwanda: geostatistical predictions and simulations, machine learning algorithm (different types of neural networks) and GIS. The research will include rainfalls variability mapping and probabilistic analyses of extreme events.

  7. Quantifying uncertainty in observational rainfall datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lennard, Chris; Dosio, Alessandro; Nikulin, Grigory; Pinto, Izidine; Seid, Hussen

    2015-04-01

    rainfall datasets available over Africa on monthly, daily and sub-daily time scales as appropriate to quantify spatial and temporal differences between the datasets. We find regional wet and dry biases between datasets (using the ensemble mean as a reference) with generally larger biases in reanalysis products. Rainfall intensity is poorly represented in some datasets which demonstrates some datasets should not be used for rainfall intensity analyses. Using 10 CORDEX models we show in east Africa that the spread between observed datasets is often similar to the spread between models. We recommend that specific observational rainfall datasets datasets be used for specific investigations and also that where many datasets are applicable to an investigation, a probabilistic view be adopted for rainfall studies over Africa. Endris, H. S., P. Omondi, S. Jain, C. Lennard, B. Hewitson, L. Chang'a, J. L. Awange, A. Dosio, P. Ketiem, G. Nikulin, H-J. Panitz, M. Büchner, F. Stordal, and L. Tazalika (2013) Assessment of the Performance of CORDEX Regional Climate Models in Simulating East African Rainfall. J. Climate, 26, 8453-8475. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00708.1 Gbobaniyi, E., A. Sarr, M. B. Sylla, I. Diallo, C. Lennard, A. Dosio, A. Dhie ?diou, A. Kamga, N. A. B. Klutse, B. Hewitson, and B. Lamptey (2013) Climatology, annual cycle and interannual variability of precipitation and temperature in CORDEX simulations over West Africa. Int. J. Climatol., DOI: 10.1002/joc.3834 Hernández-Díaz, L., R. Laprise, L. Sushama, A. Martynov, K. Winger, and B. Dugas (2013) Climate simulation over CORDEX Africa domain using the fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5). Clim. Dyn. 40, 1415-1433. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1387-z Kalognomou, E., C. Lennard, M. Shongwe, I. Pinto, A. Favre, M. Kent, B. Hewitson, A. Dosio, G. Nikulin, H. Panitz, and M. Büchner (2013) A diagnostic evaluation of precipitation in CORDEX models over southern Africa. Journal of Climate, 26, 9477-9506. DOI:10

  8. Universal Power Law for Relationship between Rainfall Kinetic Energy and Rainfall Intensity

    OpenAIRE

    Seung Sook Shin; Sang Deog Park; Byoung Koo Choi

    2016-01-01

    Rainfall kinetic energy has been linked to linear, exponential, logarithmic, and power-law functions using rainfall intensity as an independent variable. The power law is the most suitable mathematical expression used to relate rainfall kinetic energy and rainfall intensity. In evaluating the rainfall kinetic energy, the empirical power laws have shown a larger deviation than other functions. In this study, universal power law between rainfall kinetic energy and rainfall intensity was propose...

  9. Comparison of TRMM, MPEG and CFSR rainfall estimation with the ground observed data for the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. W. Worqlul

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Planning of drought relief and floods in developing countries is greatly hampered by lack of a sufficiently dense network of weather station measuring precipitation. In this paper we test the utility of three satellite products to augment the ground based precipitation measurement to provide improved spatial estimates of rainfall. The three products are: Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM product (3B42, Multi-Sensor Precipitation Estimate-Geostationary (MPEG and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR. The accuracy of three products is tested in the Lake Tana Basin in Ethiopia where in 2010 38 weather stations were available with a full record of daily precipitation amounts. Daily grid satellite based rainfall estimates were compared to: (1 point observed ground rainfall (2 areal rainfall in the major river sub-basins of Lake Tana. The result shows that, the MPEG and CFSR satellite provided most accurate rainfall estimates. On the average for 38 stations 78 and 86% of the observed rainfall variation is explained by MPEG and CFSR data respectively while TRIMM explained only 17% of the variation. Similarly, the areal comparison indicated a better performance for both MPEG and CFSR data in capturing the pattern and amount of rainfall. MPEG and CFSR have also a lower RMSE compared to the TRMM satellite rainfall. The Bias indicated that, the MPEG is consistent in underestimating the observed rainfall while the TRMM and CFSR were not consistent; they overestimated for some and underestimated for the others.

  10. Changes in greening in the high Arctic: insights from a 30 year AVHRR max NDVI dataset for Svalbard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vickers, Hannah; Arild Høgda, Kjell; Solbø, Stian; Rune Karlsen, Stein; Tømmervik, Hans; Aanes, Ronny; Hansen, Brage B.

    2016-10-01

    Satellite-aided studies of vegetation cover, biomass and productivity are becoming increasingly important for monitoring the effects of a changing climate on the biosphere. With their large spatial coverage and good temporal resolution, space-borne instruments are ideal to observe remote areas over extended time periods. However, long time series datasets with global coverage have in many cases too low spatial resolution for sparsely vegetated high latitude areas. This study has made use of a newly developed 30 year 1 km spatial resolution dataset from 1986 to 2015, provided by the NOAA AVHRR series of satellites, in order to calculate the annual maximum NDVI over parts of Svalbard (78°N). This parameter is indicative of vegetation productivity and has therefore enabled us to study long-term changes in greening within the Inner Fjord Zone on Svalbard. In addition, local meteorological data are available to link maximum NDVI values to the temporal behavior of the mean growing season (summer) temperature for the study area. Over the 30 year period, we find positive trends in both maximum NDVI (average increase of 29%) and mean summer temperature (59%), which were significantly positively correlated with each other. This suggests a temporal greening trend mediated by summer warming. However, as also recently reported for lower latitudes, the strength of the year-to-year correlation between maximum NDVI and mean summer temperature decreased, suggesting that the response of vegetation to summer warming has not remained the same over the entire study period.

  11. A perspective on 30 years of progress in ambient noise: Source mechanisms and the characteristics of the sound field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cato, Douglas H.

    2012-11-01

    The last 30 years has seen substantial progress in ocean ambient noise research, particularly in understanding the mechanisms of sound generation by the sources of ambient noise, the way in which the noise field is affected by sound propagation, and improvements in quantifying the relationship between noise and environmental parameters. This has led to significant improvements in noise prediction. Activity was probably strongest in the 1980s and 1990s, as evident, for example, in the Sea Surface Sound conferences and their published proceedings (four over 10 years). Although much of the application has been to sonar, there has also been interest in using ambient noise to measure properties of the environment and in its significance to marine life. There have been significant changes in the ambient noise itself over the last 30 years. The contribution from human activities appears to have increased, particularly that due to increases in shipping numbers. Biological noise has also increased with the significant increases in populations of some whale species following the cessation of broad scale whaling in the 1960s and early 1970s. Concern about the effects of noise on marine animals as well as the way they exploit the noise has led to renewed interest in ambient noise.

  12. Potential of deterministic and geostatistical rainfall interpolation under high rainfall variability and dry spells: case of Kenya's Central Highlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kisaka, M. Oscar; Mucheru-Muna, M.; Ngetich, F. K.; Mugwe, J.; Mugendi, D.; Mairura, F.; Shisanya, C.; Makokha, G. L.

    2016-04-01

    Drier parts of Kenya's Central Highlands endure persistent crop failure and declining agricultural productivity. These have, in part, attributed to high temperatures, prolonged dry spells and erratic rainfall. Understanding spatial-temporal variability of climatic indices such as rainfall at seasonal level is critical for optimal rain-fed agricultural productivity and natural resource management in the study area. However, the predominant setbacks in analysing hydro-meteorological events are occasioned by either lack, inadequate, or inconsistent meteorological data. Like in most other places, the sole sources of climatic data in the study region are scarce and only limited to single stations, yet with persistent missing/unrecorded data making their utilization a challenge. This study examined seasonal anomalies and variability in rainfall, drought occurrence and the efficacy of interpolation techniques in the drier regions of eastern Kenyan. Rainfall data from five stations (Machang'a, Kiritiri, Kiambere and Kindaruma and Embu) were sourced from both the Kenya Meteorology Department and on-site primary recording. Owing to some experimental work ongoing, automated recording for primary dailies in Machang'a have been ongoing since the year 2000 to date; thus, Machang'a was treated as reference (for period of record) station for selection of other stations in the region. The other stations had data sets of over 15 years with missing data of less than 10 % as required by the world meteorological organization whose quality check is subject to the Centre for Climate Systems Modeling (C2SM) through MeteoSwiss and EMPA bodies. The dailies were also subjected to homogeneity testing to evaluate whether they came from the same population. Rainfall anomaly index, coefficients of variance and probability were utilized in the analyses of rainfall variability. Spline, kriging and inverse distance weighting interpolation techniques were assessed using daily rainfall data and

  13. TRMM Applications for Rainfall-Induced Landslide Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dok, A.; Fukuoka, H.; Hong, Y.

    2012-04-01

    (snake line) were independently plotted to investigate the impact of short-term rainfall intensity and accumulated effective rainfall volume respectively for obtaining some probabilistic threshold. Japanese SWI was also tested to distribute threshold regarding to highly nonlinear rainfall patterns in predicting the landslide occurrence through the plot of total water of 3 serial tank models and daily precipitation. As a result, the snake line plots using TMPA work well for landslide warning in the selected cities; while SWI plots shows unusual peak value on the day of the debris flow occurrence. Graph of daily precipitation vs SWI implies possible zone of critical line, and second peak appearance 1 day before, indicating possibility of early warning.

  14. Regionalized rainfall-runoff model to estimate low flow indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Florine; Folton, Nathalie; Oudin, Ludovic

    2016-04-01

    Estimating low flow indices is of paramount importance to manage water resources and risk assessments. These indices are derived from river discharges which are measured at gauged stations. However, the lack of observations at ungauged sites bring the necessity of developing methods to estimate these low flow indices from observed discharges in neighboring catchments and from catchment characteristics. Different estimation methods exist. Regression or geostatistical methods performed on the low flow indices are the most common types of methods. Another less common method consists in regionalizing rainfall-runoff model parameters, from catchment characteristics or by spatial proximity, to estimate low flow indices from simulated hydrographs. Irstea developed GR2M-LoiEau, a conceptual monthly rainfall-runoff model, combined with a regionalized model of snow storage and melt. GR2M-LoiEau relies on only two parameters, which are regionalized and mapped throughout France. This model allows to cartography monthly reference low flow indices. The inputs data come from SAFRAN, the distributed mesoscale atmospheric analysis system, which provides daily solid and liquid precipitation and temperature data from everywhere in the French territory. To exploit fully these data and to estimate daily low flow indices, a new version of GR-LoiEau has been developed at a daily time step. The aim of this work is to develop and regionalize a GR-LoiEau model that can provide any daily, monthly or annual estimations of low flow indices, yet keeping only a few parameters, which is a major advantage to regionalize them. This work includes two parts. On the one hand, a daily conceptual rainfall-runoff model is developed with only three parameters in order to simulate daily and monthly low flow indices, mean annual runoff and seasonality. On the other hand, different regionalization methods, based on spatial proximity and similarity, are tested to estimate the model parameters and to simulate

  15. Regime shifts in annual maximum rainfall across Australia - implications for intensity-frequency-duration (IFD) relationships

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdon-Kidd, D. C.; Kiem, A. S.

    2015-12-01

    Rainfall intensity-frequency-duration (IFD) relationships are commonly required for the design and planning of water supply and management systems around the world. Currently, IFD information is based on the "stationary climate assumption" that weather at any point in time will vary randomly and that the underlying climate statistics (including both averages and extremes) will remain constant irrespective of the period of record. However, the validity of this assumption has been questioned over the last 15 years, particularly in Australia, following an improved understanding of the significant impact of climate variability and change occurring on interannual to multidecadal timescales. This paper provides evidence of regime shifts in annual maximum rainfall time series (between 1913-2010) using 96 daily rainfall stations and 66 sub-daily rainfall stations across Australia. Furthermore, the effect of these regime shifts on the resulting IFD estimates are explored for three long-term (1913-2010) sub-daily rainfall records (Brisbane, Sydney, and Melbourne) utilizing insights into multidecadal climate variability. It is demonstrated that IFD relationships may under- or over-estimate the design rainfall depending on the length and time period spanned by the rainfall data used to develop the IFD information. It is recommended that regime shifts in annual maximum rainfall be explicitly considered and appropriately treated in the ongoing revisions of the Engineers Australia guide to estimating and utilizing IFD information, Australian Rainfall and Runoff (ARR), and that clear guidance needs to be provided on how to deal with the issue of regime shifts in extreme events (irrespective of whether this is due to natural or anthropogenic climate change). The findings of our study also have important implications for other regions of the world that exhibit considerable hydroclimatic variability and where IFD information is based on relatively short data sets.

  16. Rain Check Application: Mobile tool to monitor rainfall in remote parts of Haiti

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, X.; Baird, J.; Chiu, M. T.; Morelli, R.; de Lanerolle, T. R.; Gourley, J. R.

    2011-12-01

    Rainfall observations performed uniformly and continuously over a period of time are valuable inputs in developing climate models and predicting events such as floods and droughts. Rain-Check is a mobile application developed in Google App Inventor Platform, for android based smart phones, to allow field researchers to monitor various rain gauges distributed though out remote regions of Haiti and send daily readings via SMS messages for further analysis and long term trending. Rainfall rate and quantity interact with many other factors to influence erosion, vegetative cover, groundwater recharge, stream water chemistry and runoff into streams impacting agriculture and livestock. Rainfall observation from various sites is especially significant in Haiti with over 80% of the country is mountainous terrain. Data sets from global models and limited number of ground stations do not capture the fine-scale rainfall patterns necessary to describe local climate. Placement and reading of rain gauges are critical to accurate measurement of rainfall.

  17. Gridded radar rainfall product for comparison with model rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jyothi, K. Amar; Devajyoti, D.; Kumar, D. Preveen; Rajagopal, E. N.; Rao, T. Narayana

    2016-05-01

    A tool for the entire Indian weather radar network using the static composite QI (Quality Index) map is generated. Various customized modules are used for this generation of the radar mosaic. The characterization of quality of DWR (Doppler weather Radar) data in terms of their QI is essential for assimilating the data into NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) models. The static QI maps give a quick overview about the inherent errors in the DWR data. Quality control algorithms are applied for the generation of composite QI. The near real time access to the DWR data at NCMRWF enables the generation of an accumulated gridded radar rainfall product. This gridded rainfall map is useful for generating products like high resolution rainfall product, QPE (quantitative precipitation estimate) and for other applications. Results of some case studies shall be presented.

  18. The Effect of Rainfall Measurement Technique and Its Spatiotemporal Resolution on Discharge Predictions in the Netherlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uijlenhoet, R.; Brauer, C.; Overeem, A.; Sassi, M.; Rios Gaona, M. F.

    2014-12-01

    Several rainfall measurement techniques are available for hydrological applications, each with its own spatial and temporal resolution. We investigated the effect of these spatiotemporal resolutions on discharge simulations in lowland catchments by forcing a novel rainfall-runoff model (WALRUS) with rainfall data from gauges, radars and microwave links. The hydrological model used for this analysis is the recently developed Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS). WALRUS is a rainfall-runoff model accounting for hydrological processes relevant to areas with shallow groundwater (e.g. groundwater-surface water feedback). Here, we used WALRUS for case studies in a freely draining lowland catchment and a polder with controlled water levels. We used rain gauge networks with automatic (hourly resolution but low spatial density) and manual gauges (high spatial density but daily resolution). Operational (real-time) and climatological (gauge-adjusted) C-band radar products and country-wide rainfall maps derived from microwave link data from a cellular telecommunication network were also used. Discharges simulated with these different inputs were compared to observations. We also investigated the effect of spatiotemporal resolution with a high-resolution X-band radar data set for catchments with different sizes. Uncertainty in rainfall forcing is a major source of uncertainty in discharge predictions, both with lumped and with distributed models. For lumped rainfall-runoff models, the main source of input uncertainty is associated with the way in which (effective) catchment-average rainfall is estimated. When catchments are divided into sub-catchments, rainfall spatial variability can become more important, especially during convective rainfall events, leading to spatially varying catchment wetness and spatially varying contribution of quick flow routes. Improving rainfall measurements and their spatiotemporal resolution can improve the performance of rainfall

  19. Long term country-wide rainfall monitoring employing cellular communication networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overeem, Aart; Leijnse, Hidde; Uijlenhoet, Remko

    2013-04-01

    Accurate rainfall observations with high spatial and temporal resolutions are needed for hydrological applications, agriculture, meteorology, and climate monitoring. However, the majority of the land surface of the earth lacks accurate rainfall information and the number of rain gauges is even severely declining in Europe, South-America, and Africa. This calls for alternative sources of rainfall information. Various studies have shown that microwave links from operational cellular telecommunication networks may be employed for rainfall monitoring. Such networks cover 20% of the land surface of the earth and have a high density, especially in urban areas. The basic principle of rainfall monitoring using microwave links is as follows. Rainfall attenuates the electromagnetic signals transmitted from one telephone tower to another. By measuring the received power at one end of a microwave link as a function of time, the path-integrated attenuation due to rainfall can be calculated. Previous studies have shown that average rainfall intensities over the length of a link can be derived from the path-integrated attenuation. This is particularly interesting for those countries where few surface rainfall observations are available. Here we present preliminary results of long term country-wide rainfall monitoring employing cellular communication networks. A dataset from a commercial microwave link network over the Netherlands is analyzed, containing data from an unprecedented number of links (~ 2000) covering the land surface of the Netherlands (35500 square kilometres). This dataset spans from January 2011 through October 2012. Daily rainfall maps (1 km spatial resolution) are derived from the microwave link data and compared to maps from a gauge-adjusted radar dataset. The performance of the rainfall retrieval algorithm will be investigated, particularly a possible seasonal dependence.

  20. Rainfall-Runoff Parameters Uncertainity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heidari, A.; Saghafian, B.; Maknoon, R.

    2003-04-01

    Karkheh river basin, located in southwest of Iran, drains an area of over 40000 km2 and is considered a flood active basin. A flood forecasting system is under development for the basin, which consists of a rainfall-runoff model, a river routing model, a reservior simulation model, and a real time data gathering and processing module. SCS, Clark synthetic unit hydrograph, and Modclark methods are the main subbasin rainfall-runoff transformation options included in the rainfall-runoff model. Infiltration schemes, such as exponentioal and SCS-CN methods, account for infiltration losses. Simulation of snow melt is based on degree day approach. River flood routing is performed by FLDWAV model based on one-dimensional full dynamic equation. Calibration and validation of the rainfall-runoff model on Karkheh subbasins are ongoing while the river routing model awaits cross section surveys.Real time hydrometeological data are collected by a telemetry network. The telemetry network is equipped with automatic sensors and INMARSAT-C comunication system. A geographic information system (GIS) stores and manages the spatial data while a database holds the hydroclimatological historical and updated time series. Rainfall runoff parameters uncertainty is analyzed by Monte Carlo and GLUE approaches.

  1. Long term variations of extreme rainfall in Denmark and southern Sweden

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan;

    2015-01-01

    A high number of studies have detected changes in the observed heavy rainfall in Northern and Central Europe, all adding to the debate on anthropogenic climate change and its potential impact on rainfall extremes. However, it is equally relevant to understand natural variations on which...... the anthropogenic changes are imposed. This study identifies multi-decadal variations in daily rainfall extremes from Denmark and southern Sweden, with a recurrence level relevant for flood hazard analysis. Based on smoothed series it is concluded that the frequency of the extreme events shows both a general...

  2. Exploring the relationship between gully erosion and rainfall erosivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campo, Miguel; Casalí, Javier; Giménez, Rafael

    2016-04-01

    Rainfall erosivity plays and important role in gully erosion. However, there are few studies that explore this relationship. The main purpose of this work is to analyse the link between observed gully erosion rates and rainfall erosivity. However, in order to get a suitable and comparable set of daily rainfall erosivity data, we firstly evaluate the performance of several daily rainfall erosivity models to estimate the daily accumulated RUSLE EI30 index. One 300 ha watershed (El Cantalar) located in Navarre (Spain) was selected to carry out field studies. A meteorological station located 10 km appart from the experimental site provided daily precipitation records since 1930 to 2009 and also 10min records since 1991 to 2009. In this watershed a total of 35 gully headcuts developed in cohesive soil were monitored. Aerial photographic stereo-pairs covering the study area were used for the survey. These were taken in five different years and at different spatial scales each time: 1956 (1: 34,000), 1967 (1:17,500), 1982 (1:13,500), 2003 (1:20,000) and 2006 (1:2000). Manual restitution of photographs was carried out. 1m resolution DEMs were obtained by triangular interpolation (Triangular Irregular Network) and then used to characterize gully headcuts. Moreover, from the aerial photos and the DEMs, ortho-photographs with a final resolution of 0.40 m were created. The geocoding of the scenes had a Root Mean Square error of less than 0.5 m both in planimetry and altimetry. Furthermore, using the DEMs and the ortho-photographs, volumetric headcut retreat rates for each period were calculated as the product of the lineal retreat and a representative section of the headcut. Daily accumulated RUSLE EI30 index was calculated in a conventional way from records of precipitation every 10 minutes for the period 1991-2009; these results were used as reference data. In addition, for the same period, this index was estimated with daily precipitation records through several models

  3. Rainfall is a risk factor for sporadic cases of Legionella pneumophila pneumonia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolina Garcia-Vidal

    Full Text Available It is not known whether rainfall increases the risk of sporadic cases of Legionella pneumonia. We sought to test this hypothesis in a prospective observational cohort study of non-immunosuppressed adults hospitalized for community-acquired pneumonia (1995-2011. Cases with Legionella pneumonia were compared with those with non-Legionella pneumonia. Using daily rainfall data obtained from the regional meteorological service we examined patterns of rainfall over the days prior to admission in each study group. Of 4168 patients, 231 (5.5% had Legionella pneumonia. The diagnosis was based on one or more of the following: sputum (41 cases, antigenuria (206 and serology (98. Daily rainfall average was 0.556 liters/m(2 in the Legionella pneumonia group vs. 0.328 liters/m(2 for non-Legionella pneumonia cases (p = 0.04. A ROC curve was plotted to compare the incidence of Legionella pneumonia and the weighted median rainfall. The cut-off point was 0.42 (AUC 0.54. Patients who were admitted to hospital with a prior weighted median rainfall higher than 0.42 were more likely to have Legionella pneumonia (OR 1.35; 95% CI 1.02-1.78; p = .03. Spearman Rho correlations revealed a relationship between Legionella pneumonia and rainfall average during each two-week reporting period (0.14; p = 0.003. No relationship was found between rainfall average and non-Legionella pneumonia cases (-0.06; p = 0.24. As a conclusion, rainfall is a significant risk factor for sporadic Legionella pneumonia. Physicians should carefully consider Legionella pneumonia when selecting diagnostic tests and antimicrobial therapy for patients presenting with CAP after periods of rainfall.

  4. Global and diffuse solar irradiance modelling over north-western Europe using MAR regional climate model : validation and construction of a 30-year climatology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaumet, Julien; Doutreloup, Sébastien; Fettweis, Xavier; Erpicum, Michel

    2015-04-01

    Solar irradiance modelling is crucial for solar resource management, photovoltaic production forecasting and for a better integration of solar energy in the electrical grid network. For those reasons, an adapted version of the Modèle Atmospheric Regional (MAR) is being developed at the Laboratory of Climatology of the University of Liège in order to provide high quality modelling of solar radiation, wind and temperature over north-western Europe. In this new model version, the radiation scheme has been calibrated using solar irradiance in-situ measurements and CORINE Land Cover data have been assimilated in order to improve the modelling of 10 m wind speed and near-surface temperature. In this study, MAR is forced at its boundary by ERA-40 reanalysis and its horizontal resolution is 10 kilometres. Diffuse radiation is estimated using global radiation from MAR outputs and a calibrated version of Ruiz-Arias et al., (2010) sigmoid model. This study proposes to evaluate the method performance for global and diffuse radiation modelling at both the hourly and daily time scale using data from the European Solar Radiation Atlas database for the weather stations of Uccle (Belgium) and Braunschweig (Germany). After that, a 30-year climatology of global and diffuse irradiance for the 1981-2010 period over western Europe is built. The created data set is then analysed in order to highlight possible regional or seasonal trends. The validity of the results is then evaluated after comparison with trends found in in-situ data or from different studies from the literature.

  5. Risk factors for ischaemic heart disease mortality among men with different occupational physical demands. A 30-year prospective cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holtermann, Andreas; Mortensen, Ole Steen; Søgaard, Karen;

    2012-01-01

    Prospective 30-year follow-up. Setting The Copenhagen Male Study. Participants 5249 gainfully employed men aged 40-59 years; 311 men with cardiovascular disease/diabetes were excluded. Primary and secondary outcome measures IHD and all-cause mortality. Results 579 men (11.8%) died due to IHD and 2628 (53...... physical work demands (HR: 0.48, 95% CI 0.24 to 0.96), a moderate/high level of leisure-time physical activity was associated with reduced risk of IHD mortality only among men with moderate and high physical work demands. High systolic blood pressure and smoking were risk factors in all groups. Similar......, but less pronounced differences in risk factors for all-cause mortality between groups were found. Conclusions The risk factors for IHD and all-cause mortality, low physical fitness and low leisure-time physical activity are not identical for men with different physical work demands. Preventive initiatives...

  6. Effect size and power in assessing moderating effects of categorical variables using multiple regression: a 30-year review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguinis, Herman; Beaty, James C; Boik, Robert J; Pierce, Charles A

    2005-01-01

    The authors conducted a 30-year review (1969-1998) of the size of moderating effects of categorical variables as assessed using multiple regression. The median observed effect size (f(2)) is only .002, but 72% of the moderator tests reviewed had power of .80 or greater to detect a targeted effect conventionally defined as small. Results suggest the need to minimize the influence of artifacts that produce a downward bias in the observed effect size and put into question the use of conventional definitions of moderating effect sizes. As long as an effect has a meaningful impact, the authors advise researchers to conduct a power analysis and plan future research designs on the basis of smaller and more realistic targeted effect sizes.

  7. Materials performance in CANDU reactors: The first 30 years and the prognosis for life extension and new designs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A number of CANDU reactors have now been in-service for more than 30 years, and several are planning life extensions. This paper summarizes the major corrosion degradation operating experience of various out-of-core (i.e., excluding fuel channels and fuel) materials in-service in currently operating CANDU reactors. Also discussed are the decisions that need to be made for life extension of replaceable and non-replaceable components such as feeders and steam generators, and materials choices for new designs, such as the advanced CANDU reactor (ACR) and enhanced CANDU-6. The basis for these choices, including a brief summary of the R and D necessary to support such decisions is provided. Finally we briefly discuss the materials and R and D needs beyond the immediate future, including new concepts to improve plant operability and component reliability

  8. Calibrating max-stable models of rainfall extremes at multiple timescales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le, Phuong Dong; Leonard, Michael; Westra, Seth

    2016-04-01

    Understanding the probabilistic behaviour of extreme rainfall events is critical for estimating the risk of flooding, leading to better design of infrastructure and management of flood events. The majority of engineering design is based on estimates of the probability of extreme rainfall known as the Intensity-Frequency-Duration relationship (IDF). IDF curves are estimated at each rain gauge and are subsequently interpolated for application to ungauged locations. The pointwise nature of IDF estimates leads to difficulties, especially at sub-daily timescales, due to the sparseness of sub-daily extreme rainfall data. As a result there is greater uncertainty and potential for bias when estimating sub-daily extreme rainfall. By using a model that incorporates dependence between spatial extremes as well as across multiple timescales, there is considerable potential to improve estimates of extreme rainfall. The aim of this research is to develop max-stable models of extreme rainfall that have both spatial dependence as well as dependence across timescales. Max-stable processes are a direct extension of the univariate generalized extreme value (GEV) model into the spatial domain. Max-stable processes provide a general framework for modelling multivariate extremes with spatial dependence for just a single duration extreme rainfall. To achieve dependence across multiple timescales, Koutsoyiannis et al. (1998) proposed a mathematical framework which expresses the parameters as a function of timescale. This parameterization is important because it allows data to be incorporated from daily rainfall stations to improve estimates at sub-daily timescales. The approach therefore addresses the issue of sparseness for sub-daily stations by exploiting the denser network of daily stations. A case study in the Hawkesbury-Nepean catchment near Sydney is used, having 82 daily gauges (>50 years) and 13 sub-daily gauges (>24 years) over a region of 300 km x 300 km area. The max

  9. Cycling of 137Cs in soil and vegetation of a flood plain 30 years after initial contamination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Distribution of radiocesium was determined in soil and vegetation components of a flood plain contaminated by Manhattan Project operations in 1944. Thirty years after contaminated waste effluents were deposited in a temporary holding basin, practically all the soil 137Cs was still within 60 cm of the soil surface. Maximum 137Cs concentrations occurred in the 12- to 22-cm horizon. Concentrations throughout the flood plain were variable; maximum levels of 137Cs exceeded 20,000 pCi/g; intermediate levels of 5,000 to 20,000 pCi/g were encountered along the watercourse, and concentrations less than 5,000 pCi/g were found along the flood plain margins. Relative concentrations in soil, roots, and above-ground vegetation (expressed as ratios on a gram per gram basis) were 0.6 for root/soil, 0.05 for above-ground vegetation/soil, and 0.03 for above-ground vegetation/roots. Ratios ranged from 0.001 to 0.53 for all species, and average ratios for the 30-year post-contamination study showed that the relative 137Cs distribution between plants and soil has not changed significantly from distributions reported 15 years ago (plant/soil ratio 0.05 vs 0.03 by Auerbach et al., 1959). The results also indicated that ratios were higher at low soil-137Cs concentration. Thus, when soil and environmental conditions remain unchanged over a 30-year period, the relative concentration of 137Cs between plants and soil does not appear to change significantly as a function of time. (U.S.)

  10. Assessing the relative effectiveness of statistical downscaling and distribution mapping in reproducing rainfall statistics based on climate model results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langousis, Andreas; Mamalakis, Antonios; Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino

    2016-01-01

    To improve the level skill of climate models (CMs) in reproducing the statistics of daily rainfall at a basin level, two types of statistical approaches have been suggested. One is statistical correction of CM rainfall outputs based on historical series of precipitation. The other, usually referred to as statistical rainfall downscaling, is the use of stochastic models to conditionally simulate rainfall series, based on large-scale atmospheric forcing from CMs. While promising, the latter approach attracted reduced attention in recent years, since the developed downscaling schemes involved complex weather identification procedures, while demonstrating limited success in reproducing several statistical features of rainfall. In a recent effort, Langousis and Kaleris () developed a statistical framework for simulation of daily rainfall intensities conditional on upper-air variables, which is simpler to implement and more accurately reproduces several statistical properties of actual rainfall records. Here we study the relative performance of: (a) direct statistical correction of CM rainfall outputs using nonparametric distribution mapping, and (b) the statistical downscaling scheme of Langousis and Kaleris (), in reproducing the historical rainfall statistics, including rainfall extremes, at a regional level. This is done for an intermediate-sized catchment in Italy, i.e., the Flumendosa catchment, using rainfall and atmospheric data from four CMs of the ENSEMBLES project. The obtained results are promising, since the proposed downscaling scheme is more accurate and robust in reproducing a number of historical rainfall statistics, independent of the CM used and the characteristics of the calibration period. This is particularly the case for yearly rainfall maxima.

  11. Rainfall phenomena during the period from January to July, 2009 over Bangladesh and the northeastern part of Indian subcontinent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiguchi, M.; Yamane, Y.; Murata, F.; Terao, T.; Hayashi, T.; Oki, T.

    2009-12-01

    We reveal the rainfall variability during the period from January to July in 2009 over Bangladesh and the north-eastern part of Indian subcontinent. Up to July in 2009, the activity of Indian monsoon in 2009 is weak, and some part of Indian sub-continent is drought. Rainfall activity from monsoon onset to end of July in the north-eastern part of India, especially Assam state, is not active, and they have the comprehensive rainfall in early and late July only. In Cherrapunji (Meghalaya state, India) known as the world record of annual rainfall amount, the rainfall amount from March to July is about 4,500 mm which is a half the normal amount. Even though Dhaka as known the capital of Bangladesh has heavy rainfall (daily amount is 333mm which is station record) on July 27, the rainfall amount from monsoon onset is less than the normal value over Bangladesh. In late June and middle July, the area-averaged rainfall in Bangladesh decreases, and the ratio of the stations where rainfall is observed also decreases toward to about 10 -- 20 %. On the other hand, the pre-monsoon rainfall activity over Bangladesh is as same as normal year. In Bangladesh, they have 4 events of active rainfall phenomena in from late March to early April, middle April, early May, and middle May. More than 10 % of all observation stations in Bangladesh observe the rainfall activity during each active phase, and in contrast, the observation stations hardly observe the rainfall activity during inactive phase. Out of 4 events of pre-monsoon rainfall phenomena, the continuous rainfall event during the period from May 10 to 18 is observed in Dhaka, Bangladesh. What the relative humidity in lower troposphere divided from the upper troposphere observation at Dhaka (06 LT) increases and the southerly is dominant from May 10, indicates that there is wet condition in lower troposphere in pre-monsoon active phase.

  12. Extreme Rainfall In A City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nkemdirim, Lawrence

    Cities contain many structures and activities that are vulnerable to severe weather. Heavy precipitation cause floods which can damage structures, compromise transportation and water supply systems, and slow down economic and social activities. Rain induced flood patterns in cities must be well understood to enable effective placement of flood control and other regulatory measures. The planning goal is not to eliminate all floods but to reduce their frequency and resulting damage. Possible approaches to such planning include probability based extreme event analysis. Precipitation is normally the most variable hydrologic element over a given area. This variability results from the distribution of clouds and in cloud processes in the atmosphere, the storm path, and the distribution of topographical features on the ground along path. Some studies suggest that point rainfall patterns are also affected by urban industrial effects hence some agreement that cities are wetter than the country surrounding them. However, there are still questions regarding the intra- urban distribution of precipitation. The sealed surfaces, urban structures, and the urban heat anomaly increase convection in cities which may enhance the generation of clouds. Increased dust and gaseous aerosols loads are effective condensation and sublimation nuclei which may also enhance the generation of precipitation. Based on these associations, the greatest amount of convection type rainfall should occur at city center. A study of summer rainfall in Calgary showed that frequencies of trace amounts of rainfall and events under 0.2mm are highest downtown than elsewhere. For amounts greater than than 0.2 mm, downtown sites were not favored. The most compelling evidence for urban-industrial precipitation enhancement came from the Metromex project around St. Loius, Missouri where maximum increases of between 5 to 30 per cent in summer rainfall downwind of the city was linked to urbanization and

  13. Rainfall, runoff and sediment transport in a Mediterranean mountainous catchment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuset, J; Vericat, D; Batalla, R J

    2016-01-01

    The relation between rainfall, runoff, erosion and sediment transport is highly variable in Mediterranean catchments. Their relation can be modified by land use changes and climate oscillations that, ultimately, will control water and sediment yields. This paper analyses rainfall, runoff and sediment transport relations in a meso-scale Mediterranean mountain catchment, the Ribera Salada (NE Iberian Peninsula). A total of 73 floods recorded between November 2005 and November 2008 at the Inglabaga Sediment Transport Station (114.5 km(2)) have been analysed. Suspended sediment transport and flow discharge were measured continuously. Rainfall data was obtained by means of direct rain gauges and daily rainfall reconstructions from radar information. Results indicate that the annual sediment yield (2.3 t km(-1) y(-1) on average) and the flood-based runoff coefficients (4.1% on average) are low. The Ribera Salada presents a low geomorphological and hydrological activity compared with other Mediterranean mountain catchments. Pearson correlations between rainfall, runoff and sediment transport variables were obtained. The hydrological response of the catchment is controlled by the base flows. The magnitude of suspended sediment concentrations is largely correlated with flood magnitude, while sediment load is correlated with the amount of direct runoff. Multivariate analysis shows that total suspended load can be predicted by integrating rainfall and runoff variables. The total direct runoff is the variable with more weight in the equation. Finally, three main hydro-sedimentary phases within the hydrological year are defined in this catchment: (a) Winter, where the catchment produces only water and very little sediment; (b) Spring, where the majority of water and sediment is produced; and (c) Summer-Autumn, when little runoff is produced but significant amount of sediments is exported out of the catchment. Results show as land use and climate change may have an important

  14. Rainfall, runoff and sediment transport in a Mediterranean mountainous catchment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuset, J; Vericat, D; Batalla, R J

    2016-01-01

    The relation between rainfall, runoff, erosion and sediment transport is highly variable in Mediterranean catchments. Their relation can be modified by land use changes and climate oscillations that, ultimately, will control water and sediment yields. This paper analyses rainfall, runoff and sediment transport relations in a meso-scale Mediterranean mountain catchment, the Ribera Salada (NE Iberian Peninsula). A total of 73 floods recorded between November 2005 and November 2008 at the Inglabaga Sediment Transport Station (114.5 km(2)) have been analysed. Suspended sediment transport and flow discharge were measured continuously. Rainfall data was obtained by means of direct rain gauges and daily rainfall reconstructions from radar information. Results indicate that the annual sediment yield (2.3 t km(-1) y(-1) on average) and the flood-based runoff coefficients (4.1% on average) are low. The Ribera Salada presents a low geomorphological and hydrological activity compared with other Mediterranean mountain catchments. Pearson correlations between rainfall, runoff and sediment transport variables were obtained. The hydrological response of the catchment is controlled by the base flows. The magnitude of suspended sediment concentrations is largely correlated with flood magnitude, while sediment load is correlated with the amount of direct runoff. Multivariate analysis shows that total suspended load can be predicted by integrating rainfall and runoff variables. The total direct runoff is the variable with more weight in the equation. Finally, three main hydro-sedimentary phases within the hydrological year are defined in this catchment: (a) Winter, where the catchment produces only water and very little sediment; (b) Spring, where the majority of water and sediment is produced; and (c) Summer-Autumn, when little runoff is produced but significant amount of sediments is exported out of the catchment. Results show as land use and climate change may have an important

  15. DailyMed Webservices

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The DailyMed RESTful API is a web service for accessing current SPL information. It is implemented using HTTP and can be thought of as a collection of resources,...

  16. Daily Weather Maps

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Several different government offices have published the Daily weather maps over its history. The publication has also gone by different names over time. The U.S....

  17. DailyMed

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — DailyMed provides high quality information about marketed drugs. This information includes FDA labels (package inserts). This Web site provides health information...

  18. Chapman Conference on Rainfall Fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, V. K.

    The Chapman Conference on Rainfall Fields, sponsored by AGU, was the first of its kind; it was devoted to strengthening scientific interaction between the North American and Latin American geophysics communities. It was hosted by Universidad Simon Bolivar and Instituto Internacional de Estudios Avanzados, in Caracas, Venezuela, during March 24-27, 1986. A total of 36 scientists from Latin America, the United States, Canada, and Europe participated. The conference, which was convened by I. Rodriguez-Iturbe (Universidad Simon Bolivar) and V. K. Gupta (University of Mississippi, University), brought together hydrologists, meteorologists, and mathematicians/statisticians in the name of enhancing an interdisciplinary focus on rainfall research.

  19. Commercial application of rainfall simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loch, Rob J.

    2010-05-01

    Landloch Pty Ltd is a commercial consulting firm, providing advice on a range of land management issues to the mining and construction industries in Australia. As part of the company's day-to-day operations, rainfall simulation is used to assess material erodibility and to investigate a range of site attributes. (Landloch does carry out research projects, though such are not its core business.) When treated as an everyday working tool, several aspects of rainfall simulation practice are distinctively modified. Firstly, the equipment used is regularly maintained, and regularly upgraded with a primary focus on ease, safety, and efficiency of use and on reliability of function. As well, trained and experienced technical support is considered essential. Landloch's chief technician has over 10 years experience in running rainfall simulators at locations across Australia and in Africa and the Pacific. Secondly, the specific experimental conditions established for each set of rainfall simulator runs are carefully considered to ensure that they accurately represent the field conditions to which the data will be subsequently applied. Considerations here include: • wetting and drying cycles to ensure material consolidation and/or cementation if appropriate; • careful attention to water quality if dealing with clay soils or with amendments such as gypsum; • strong focus on ensuring that the erosion processes considered are those of greatest importance to the field situation of concern; and • detailed description of both material and plot properties, to increase the potential for data to be applicable to a wider range of projects and investigations. Other important company procedures include: • For each project, the scientist or engineer responsible for analysing and reporting rainfall simulator data is present during the running of all field plots, as it is essential that they be aware of any specific conditions that may have developed when the plots were subjected

  20. Evaluation of multi-satellite rainfall products over India during monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitra, Ashis K.; Prakash, Satya; Pai, D. S.; Srivastava, A. K.

    2016-05-01

    Simulation and prediction of Indian monsoon rainfall at scales from days-to-season is a challenging task for numerical modelling community worldwide. Gridded estimates of daily rainfall data are required for both land and oceanic regions for model validation, process studies and in turn for model development. Due to recent developments in satellite meteorology, it has become possible to produce realistic near real-time gridded rainfall datasets at operational basis by combining satellite estimates with rain gauge values and other available in-situ observations. Microwave and space based radar based estimates of rainfall has revolutionised the preparation of rainfall datasets especially for tropics. However, a variety of multi-satellite products are available over Indian monsoon region from a variety of sources. Popular products like TRMM TMPA3B42 (RT and V7), GsMaP, CPC/RFE, GPCP and GPM are available to end users in various space/time scales for applications and model validation. In this study, we show the representation and skill of monsoon rainfall from a variety of multi-satellite products over the Indian region. The bias and skill of multi-satellite rainfall are evaluated against gauge based observations. It was found that the TRMM based TMPA was one of the best dataset for Indian monsoon region. Attempt is made to compare the latest GPM based data with other products. The GPM based rainfall product is seen to be superior compared to TRMM.

  1. On the Climatology of Persistent Heavy Rainfall Events in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    Persistent heavy rainfall events (PHR events) comprise one category of weather- and climate- related extreme events. Based on daily rainfall data measured in China during the period of 1951-2004, several quantitative criteria were developed to define PHR events by means of their precipitation intensity, temporal duration, spatial extent and persistence. Then a semi-objective classification based on these criteria was applied to summer daily rainfall data to identify all PHR events. A total of 197 events were observed during the study period. All events were further classified into 5 categories according to their coinprehensive intensity; into 3 types according to their circulation regime; and into 8 groups according to the geographic locations of their rainbands. Based on these different classifications, finally, the behaviors of 130 PHR events identified as the most severe, severe and moderate categories since the year of 1951, including characteristics of the spatial and temporal distributions of their frequencies, intensities, and rainbands,were investigated in order to present a comprehensive description of the PHR events. The results will be helpful to the future study of revealing and understanding the processes that govern the production of the PHR events and to the improvement of the forecasts of the PHR events.

  2. Trends in rainfall and temperature extremes in Morocco

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Khomsi

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available In Morocco, socioeconomic fields are vulnerable to weather extreme events. This work aims to analyze the frequency and the trends of temperature and rainfall extreme events in two contrasted Moroccan regions (the Tensift in the semi-arid South, and the Bouregreg in the sub-humid North, during the second half of the 20th century. This study considers long time series of daily extreme temperatures and rainfall, recorded in the stations of Marrakech and Safi for the Tensift region, and Kasba-Tadla and Rabat-Sale for the Bouregreg region, data from four other stations (Tanger, Fes, Agadir and Ouarzazate from outside the regions were added. Extremes are defined by using as thresholds the 1st, 5th, 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles. Results show upward trends in maximum and minimum temperatures of both regions and no generalized trends in rainfall amounts. Changes in cold events are larger than those for warm events, and the number of very cold events decrease significantly in the whole studied area. The southern region is the most affected with the changes of the temperature regime. Most of the trends found in rainfall heavy events are positive with weak magnitudes even though no statistically significant generalized trends could be identified during both seasons.

  3. Estimation of rainfall thresholds for the initiation of landslides in the Ialomita Subcarpathians, Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chitu, Z.; Micu, D.; Sandric, I.; Mihai, B.

    2012-04-01

    Landslides are a common feature in the landscape of the Romanian hills and plateaus, affecting around 7% of the national territory (Pusch, 2004). It is general knowledge that landslides represent the combined result of a series of predisposing factors (lithology, faults, slope, land-use, land cover, etc.) with long term impact on slope stability and triggering factors (rainfall, snow melt, earthquakes) that temporarily modify the local hydrogeological conditions (Corominas, 2008). Rainfall represents the most common triggering factor of landslides in the Ialomita Subcarpathians, therefore the determination of rainfall thresholds for landslides initiation would be very useful for landslide hazard assessment and implementation of warning systems. This paper aims to determine regional rainfall thresholds in the Subcarpathian area between the Prahova and Ialomita Valleys, where the most frequent phenomena are: deep seated rotational slides, earth flows and complex movements (rotational slides combined with mudflow or translational slides). The methodology used in studies addressing the regional scale is based on empirical or statistical analysis of rainfall, due to the spatial and temporal variation of landslide factors. Given the lack of hourly measurements of rainfall variables for long periods in Romania we were constrained to determine the corresponding rainfall thresholds based on cumulated precipitation during the landslide events. The rainfall variables were chosen based on the typology of landslides: daily rainfall in the case of shallow landslides usually triggered by short and intense rainfall, normalized total precipitation (antecedent and event rainfall) for deep-seated landslides. After establishing what thresholds correspond to the different types of landslides, we continued by analyzing the spatial and temporal variability of the pluvial regime aiming to understand the over time occurrence of landslides in the Subcarpathian area between the Prahova and

  4. Correlations between rainfall data and insurance damage data related to sewer flooding for the case of Aarhus, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spekkers, Matthieu; Zhou, Qianqian; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten;

    Sewer flooding due to extreme rainfall may result in considerable damage. Damage data to quantify costs of cleaning, drying, and replacing materials and goods are rare in literature. In this study, insurance claim data related to property damages were analysed for the municipality of Aarhus......, Denmark. The aim of this paper was to study the extent to which rainfall data can be used to explain variations in insurance claim data. In particular, the paper addresses the issue of time-lag between claim date and time of the damaging rainfall event, which may, if not taken into account, lead...... on the three days after. A linear model that takes into account rainfall data from previous days slightly improves correlations between rainfall and damage variables compared to a simple linear model. Best correlation coefficients were found between maximum hourly rainfall intensity and daily number of claims...

  5. Simulating transport of nitrogen and phosphorus in a Cambisol after natural and simulated intense rainfall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufmann, Vander; Pinheiro, Adilson; Castro, Nilza Maria dos Reis

    2014-05-01

    Intense rainfall adversely affects agricultural areas, causing transport of pollutants. Physically-based hydrological models to simulate flows of water and chemical substances can be used to help decision-makers adopt measures which reduce such problems. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the performance of SWAP and ANIMO models for simulating transport of water, nitrate and phosphorus nutrients, during intense rainfall events generated by a simulator, and during natural rainfall, on a volumetric drainage lysimeter. The models were calibrated and verified using daily time series and simulated rainfall measured at 10-minute intervals. For daily time-intervals, the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.865 for the calibration period and 0.805 for verification. Under simulated rainfall, these coefficients were greater than 0.56. The pattern of both nitrate and phosphate concentrations in daily drainage flow under simulated rainfall was acceptably reproduced by the ANIMO model. In the simulated rainfall, loads of nitrate transported in surface runoff varied between 0.08 and 8.46 kg ha(-1), and in drainage form the lysimeter, between 2.44 and 112.57 kg ha(-1). In the case of phosphate, the loads transported in surface runoff varied between 0.002 and 0.504 kg ha(-1), and in drainage, between 0.005 and 1.107 kg ha(-1). The use of the two models SWAP and ANIMO shows the magnitudes of nitrogen and phosphorus fluxes transported by natural and simulated intense rainfall in an agricultural area with different soil management procedures, as required by decision makers. PMID:24650647

  6. The Rainfall and Rainfall Kinetic Energy Intensity-Duration of Landslides and Debris flow in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Jui-Ming; Chen, Hongey

    2016-04-01

    This research used Joss-Waldvogel Disdrometers (JWD) which set in Shiment catchment, Northern Taiwan and Chishan catchment, Southern Taiwan to record rainfall kinetic energy data, to find the relationship between rainfall kinetic energy and rainfall intensity in these two areas. The distance between the two areas is less than 150 km. These data help the researchers and showed that the equations of relationship were ekN =28.7* (1-0.7027*exp(-0.0395*I)) and ekS=27.4*(1-0.5954*exp(-0.0345*I)). Generally, rainfall kinetic energy in Northern Taiwan is higher than in Southern Taiwan during rainfall period. Also, the occurring time and rainfall records of 143 landslide events from 2006 to 2012 were analyzed. The rainfall-intensity (I-D) relationship could be used to build rainfall threshold which were IN=15.13 D‑0.28 and IS=47.58 D‑0.35. In brief, the rainfall feature in landslide of Northern Taiwan had low rainfall intensity, long rainfall duration and low average accumulative rainfall. By combining rainfall kinetic energy and rainfall threshold, rainfall kinetic energy threshold could be established, which were ¯E N=13.83 D‑0.04 and ¯E S =15.59 D‑0.02. The results showed that not only for rainfall but also for rainfall kinetic energy threshold, the values of thresholds in North were lower than those in South. Due to impaction energy of rainfall to ground surface, rainfall kinetic energy would not forever increase. Therefore, rainfall kinetic energy threshold is also a useful tool for landslide warning. Key words: Rainfall kinetic energy, Rainfall threshold, Rainfall kinetic energy threshold, Landslide

  7. Attributes for NHDPlus Catchments (Version 1.1) for the Conterminous United States: 30-Year Average Annual Maximum Temperature, 1971-2000

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This data set represents the 30-year (1971-2000) average annual maximum temperature in Celsius multiplied by 100 compiled for every catchment of NHDPlus for the...

  8. Attributes for NHDPlus Catchments (Version 1.1) for the Conterminous United States: 30-Year Average Annual Precipitation, 1971-2000

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This data set represents the 30-year (1971-2000) average annual precipitation in millimeters multiplied by 100 compiled for every catchment of NHDPlus for the...

  9. Attributes for NHDPlus Catchments (Version 1.1) for the Conterminous United States: 30-Year Average Annual Minimum Temperature, 1971-2000

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This data set represents the 30-year (1971-2000) average annual minimum temperature in Celsius multiplied by 100 compiled for every catchment of NHDPlus for the...

  10. Attributes for MRB_E2RF1 Catchments by Major River Basins in the Conterminous United States: 30-Year Average Annual Precipitation, 1971-2000

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This tabular data set represents the 30-year (1971-2000) average annual precipitation in millimeters multiplied by 100 compiled for every MRB_E2RF1 catchment of...

  11. INSTABILITY OF THE TELECONNECTION OF SUMMER RAINFALLS BETWEEN NORTH CHINA AND INDIA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HUANG Jian-bin; WANG Shao-wu

    2007-01-01

    Summer rainfall variations in North China closely relate to that in India. It seems that an alternation of signs of"+, -, +" exists in the geographical pattern of the correlation in summer rainfall from North China to India through the Tibetan Plateau. However, it appears that the teleconnection of summer rainfall variations between North China and India is unstable. Over 1945 - 1974, the correlation coefficient (hereafter as CC) is as large as 0.7. In contrast, the CC is about -0.3 over 1827-1856. Further studies, based on observations starting from 1813, showed that the correlation is strong when summer rainfalls in both North China and India are large, and vice versa. In order to find what induce the change of the teleconnection, variations of summer rainfall in both North China and India, mean sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern equatorial Pacific and the frequency of ENSO events were examined in relation to the change of the teleconnection. The result showed that the teleconnection appears weak when the mean SST is high and the frequency of La Ni(n)a events is low; the teleconnection is strong when the mean SST is low and the frequency of La Ni(n)a events is high. At last, it is notable that La Ni(n)a happens in only 3 years during the recent 30 years from 1976 to 2005 and the teleconnection becomes weak too.

  12. Multiscale characteristics of the rainy season rainfall and interdecadal decaying of summer monsoon in North China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DAI Xingang; WANG Ping; CHOU Jifan

    2003-01-01

    This paper focuses on the rainfall spectrum and its evolution of North China in rainy season with summer monsoon decaying in interdecadal time scale. The interannual component of the rainfall is the dominant part, accounting for 85% of the total variance, and has been changed significantly during the last 30 years. According to wavelet analysis its 5a periodic spectrum suddenly disappeared in the late 1960s, and its biennial oscillation gradually become weaker and weaker since 1970, accompanied by the summer monsoon decaying. Contrarily, the interdecadal component is principal in the summer monsoon over North China and is very similar to the counterpart of the rainfall. Their interdecadal parts are significantly correlated, and the correlation coefficient is nearly equal to the one of the original sequences. Besides, the dry and wet climate alternated with the monsoon abrupt changes in the 1960s and the 1970s over East Asia, apart from North China, climate drifted from a light drought to a severe drought during the past 30 years.

  13. Evolution of the Urban Heat Island of the city of Bologna (Italy) in the last 30 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ventura, Francesca; Gaspari, Nicola; Piana, Stefano; Rossi Pisa, Paola

    2010-05-01

    The Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomenon is the air temperature difference between the urban area and the surrounding agricultural area of a city, due to the anthropic activities and different surfaces typical of the town. This phenomenon has been documented for many cities with different population, topography and climate (Chandler, 1962 and Oke, 1982 among the first), and has been quantified in many areas (see as an example for Italy Agnese et al, 2008). Many causes contribute to the UHI, such as different heat capacities of vegetated surfaces as compared to buildings and paving materials; different absorption due to canopy geometry; anthropogenic heat sources and so on. (for example see Camilloni and Barros, 1997) What is not so easy to find in literature is the study of the evolution of this phenomenon with time. UHI could be improved by changes in the town behaviour (increase in car traffic or winter-heating/summer-cooling), reduced by the enlargement of the suburb area, arriving to include the rural meteorological stations, or mitigated by the general growth of air temperature due to global warming. In this work, results from the analysis of two 30 years time series air temperature data are presented. The first data set comes from an agrometeorological station sited in the Botanical garden of the University of Bologna, in the centre of the town (44° 30' 05"N, 11° 21' 18" E). The second agrometeorological station is sited in the experimental farm of the University of Bologna in Cadriano (44° 33' 03" N, 11° 24' 36" E), 9 km from the first and outside of the town boundaries. Both data series range from 1978 to 2007 and are measured by mechanical thermoigrometers. Detailed information about instruments and data treatment are available in Matzneller et al. (2009). Results show an increasing trend in both stations for air maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures, more evident in the rural data. The mean UHI is of about 1.3 ± 0.7 °C as an average on the 30

  14. Health risk or resource? Gradual and independent association between self-rated health and mortality persists over 30 years.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthias Bopp

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Poor self-rated health (SRH is associated with increased mortality. However, most studies only adjust for few health risk factors and/or do not analyse whether this association is consistent also for intermediate categories of SRH and for follow-up periods exceeding 5-10 years. This study examined whether the SRH-mortality association remained significant 30 years after assessment when adjusting for a wide range of known clinical, behavioural and socio-demographic risk factors. METHODS: We followed-up 8,251 men and women aged ≥ 16 years who participated 1977-79 in a community based health study and were anonymously linked with the Swiss National Cohort (SNC until the end of 2008. Covariates were measured at baseline and included education, marital status, smoking, medical history, medication, blood glucose and pressure. RESULTS: 92.8% of the original study participants could be linked to a census, mortality or emigration record of the SNC. Loss to follow-up 1980-2000 was 5.8%. Even after 30 years of follow-up and after adjustment for all covariates, the association between SRH and all-cause mortality remained strong and estimates almost linearly increased from "excellent" (reference: hazard ratio, HR 1 to "good" (men: HR 1.07 95% confidence interval 0.92-1.24, women: 1.22, 1.01-1.46 to "fair" (1.41, 1.18-1.68; 1.39, 1.14-1.70 to "poor"(1.61, 1.15-2.25; 1.49, 1.07-2.06 to "very poor" (2.85, 1.25-6.51; 1.30, 0.18-9.35. Persons answering the SRH question with "don't know" (1.87, 1.21-2.88; 1.26, 0.87-1.83 had also an increased mortality risk; this was pronounced in men and in the first years of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: SRH is a strong and "dose-dependent" predictor of mortality. The association was largely independent from covariates and remained significant after decades. This suggests that SRH provides relevant and sustained health information beyond classical risk factors or medical history and reflects salutogenetic rather than

  15. Chronic daily headaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fayyaz Ahmed

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Chronic Daily Headache is a descriptive term that includes disorders with headaches on more days than not and affects 4% of the general population. The condition has a debilitating effect on individuals and society through direct cost to healthcare and indirectly to the economy in general. To successfully manage chronic daily headache syndromes it is important to exclude secondary causes with comprehensive history and relevant investigations; identify risk factors that predict its development and recognise its sub-types to appropriately manage the condition. Chronic migraine, chronic tension-type headache, new daily persistent headache and medication overuse headache accounts for the vast majority of chronic daily headaches. The scope of this article is to review the primary headache disorders. Secondary headaches are not discussed except medication overuse headache that often accompanies primary headache disorders. The article critically reviews the literature on the current understanding of daily headache disorders focusing in particular on recent developments in the treatment of frequent headaches.

  16. Global Historical Climatology Network - Daily (GHCN-Daily), Version 3

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Historical Climatology Network - Daily (GHCN-Daily) dataset integrates daily climate observations from approximately 30 different data sources. Version 3...

  17. Estimation of daily albedo on Tottori sand surface

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daily albedos of a bare sand surface were measured with a solarimeter (Eko MS-62) between 23 August and 30 November in 1997 at Tottori sand dune, Japan. These quickly decreased on rainy days, and recovered during dry spells (days between rainfalls). A strong exponential relationship was found between daily albedos and the number of dry days. The daily albedos on dry days also showed a direct relationship with daily transmissivities in the range less than 0.55. Two simple models were developed to estimate daily albedos for dry spell days on bare Tottori sand surface using routine meteorological data. Daily albedos were calculated using these two models, and compared with the measured daily albedos. For Model #1, the daily albedos were successfully predicted only using the number of dry spell days; the correlation coefficient between the estimated and measured albedo was 0.73, and the standard error was 1.2%. For Model #2, the number of dry spell days and transmissivity were considered in order to calculate the daily albedo on dry spell days; the correlation coefficient was 0.85, and the standard error was 0.9%. Estimated albedos were in good agreement with measured albedos. (author)

  18. Committed retreat of Smith, Pope, and Kohler Glaciers over the next 30 years inferred by transient model calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldberg, D. N.; Heimbach, P.; Joughin, I.; Smith, B.

    2015-12-01

    A glacial flow model of Smith, Pope and Kohler Glaciers is calibrated by means of control methods against time varying, annually resolved observations of ice height and velocities, covering the period 2002 to 2011. The inversion - termed "transient calibration" - produces an optimal set of time-mean, spatially varying parameters together with a time-evolving state that accounts for the transient nature of observations and the model dynamics. Serving as an optimal initial condition, the estimated state for 2011 is used, with no additional forcing, for predicting grounded ice volume loss and grounding line retreat over the ensuing 30 years. The transiently calibrated model predicts a near-steady loss of grounded ice volume of approximately 21 km3 a-1 over this period, as well as loss of 33 km2 a-1 grounded area. We contrast this prediction with one obtained following a commonly used "snapshot" or steady-state inversion, which does not consider time dependence and assumes all observations to be contemporaneous. Transient calibration is shown to achieve a better fit with observations of thinning and grounding line retreat histories, and yields a quantitatively different projection with respect to ice volume loss and ungrounding. Sensitivity studies suggest large near-future levels of unforced, i.e., committed sea level contribution from these ice streams under reasonable assumptions regarding uncertainties of the unknown parameters.

  19. The Close AGN Reference Survey (CARS) - What is causing Mrk1018's return to the shadows after 30 years?

    CERN Document Server

    Husemann, B; Tremblay, G R; Krumpe, M; Dexter, J; Busch, G; Combes, F; Croom, S M; Davis, T A; Eckart, A; McElroy, R E; Perez-Torres, M; Powell, M; Scharwächter, J

    2016-01-01

    We recently discovered that the active galactic nucleus (AGN) of Mrk 1018 has changed optical type again after 30 years as a type 1 AGN. Here we combine Chandra, NuStar, Swift, Hubble Space Telescope and ground-based observations to explore the cause of this change. The 2-10keV flux declines by a factor of ~8 between 2010 and 2016. We show with our X-ray observation that this is not caused by varying neutral hydrogen absorption along the line-of-sight up to the Compton-thick level. The optical-UV spectral energy distributions are well fit with a standard geometrically thin optically thick accretion disc model that seems to obey the expected $L\\sim T^4$ relation. It confirms that a decline in accretion disc luminosity is the primary origin for the type change. We detect a new narrow-line absorber in Lya blue-shifted by ~700km/s with respect to the systemic velocity of the galaxy. This new Lya absorber could be evidence for the onset of an outflow or a companion black hole with associated gas that could be rela...

  20. Changes in population structure and growth of skipjack tuna, Katsuwonus pelamis during 30 years of exploitation in the southwestern Atlantic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thais Garbin

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The skipjack tuna is the main tuna species caught in Brazil with pole and live-bait. Samples taken during 1984-1986 and the 2004-2009 periods provided length, weight and age data. A comparison of the population structure was made showing a decrease in the median and means of fork length in the 80's (median: 55 cm and recent years (median: 51 cm, an increased participation of smaller individuals (40 cm in recent catches, a high variability of lengths in each year class and a decrease of the condition factor K. These results indicate alterations in the population structure and dynamics. The von Bertalanffy growth parameters calculated for the recent years were L∞= 669 mm; k = 0.24 yr-1; t o = -3.8. CPUE data for the studied period seems to be stable (mean annual catch of 20,000 ton. However, the unit of effort used in Brazil (fishing days does not reflect changes in fishing power and technology properly as occurred during 30 years of exploitation. It is concluded that the present situation requires a close monitoring of the fishery.

  1. Organizing Principles of Human Cortical Development--Thickness and Area from 4 to 30 Years: Insights from Comparative Primate Neuroanatomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amlien, Inge K; Fjell, Anders M; Tamnes, Christian K; Grydeland, Håkon; Krogsrud, Stine K; Chaplin, Tristan A; Rosa, Marcello G P; Walhovd, Kristine B

    2016-01-01

    The human cerebral cortex undergoes a protracted, regionally heterogeneous development well into young adulthood. Cortical areas that expand the most during human development correspond to those that differ most markedly when the brains of macaque monkeys and humans are compared. However, it remains unclear to what extent this relationship derives from allometric scaling laws that apply to primate brains in general, or represents unique evolutionary adaptations. Furthermore, it is unknown whether the relationship only applies to surface area (SA), or also holds for cortical thickness (CT). In 331 participants aged 4 to 30, we calculated age functions of SA and CT, and examined the correspondence of human cortical development with macaque to human expansion, and with expansion across nonhuman primates. CT followed a linear negative age function from 4 to 30 years, while SA showed positive age functions until 12 years with little further development. Differential cortical expansion across primates was related to regional maturation of SA and CT, with age trajectories differing between high- and low-expanding cortical regions. This relationship adhered to allometric scaling laws rather than representing uniquely macaque-human differences: regional correspondence with human development was as large for expansion across nonhuman primates as between humans and macaque. PMID:25246511

  2. Pediatricorthopedics:glorious30yearsJI S%小儿骨科辉煌30年

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吉士俊; 郭源; 张立军

    2015-01-01

    Pediatric orthopedics got a great development in the past 30 years. The type-B ultrasonic became an important detection method for developmental dysplasia of the hip as a higher standard of living and neonate screening. The application of Ponseti method brought signiifcant curative effects in the treatment of congenital clubfoot. Minimally invasive treatment was realized in traumatic fracture. We have got some experience of Ilizarov technique which was used in limb lengthening. The development of the spinal surgery was fast because of applications of needles and sticks, and the effects of the deformity correction were satisfactory. With the help of chemotherapy, the survival rate of osteosarcoma in 5 years achieved 80% after salvage limb operation. Our professional staff should popularize the technique of pediatric orthopedics to meet the needs of 300 000 000 children. Professional surgeons should master more skills, strengthen the leaning ability and develop the collective intelligence in the diagnosis and treatment. We should emphasize scientiifc research and innovation, and improve the ability of scientiifc thinking. The humanistic care should be valued in clinical work. We all need to be communicative and serve the patients enthusiastically. Then, pediatric orthopedics will be more prosperous and lfourishing.

  3. Treated versus non-treated subjects with depression from a 30-year cohort study: prevalence and clinical covariates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hengartner, Michael P; Angst, Felix; Ajdacic-Gross, Vladeta; Rössler, Wulf; Angst, Jules

    2016-03-01

    The aim of this study was to determine prevalence rates of several components of depression (unipolar and bipolar major, minor, recurrent brief depression, and dysthymia) and to identify covariates of treatment. We analysed a representative population-based, long-term prospective cohort study from age 20 to 50. Across the seven semi-structured interviews, generalized estimating equations examined the associations between diagnoses and treatment status during the course. The results show that the mean annual treatment rate across 30 years in persons with MDE was 39.2%. The weighted treatment prevalence for any depressive disorder was 23.4% (15.7% for MDE, 4.3% for minor depressive disorders and 3.4% for non-diagnosed subjects). Persons were more likely to seek treatment as they grew older. Women with MDE had triple the treatment prevalence of men (23.8 vs. 7.4%). Variables of distress/suffering under depression (OR 1.36-1.52) and the number of diagnostic depressive symptoms (OR 1.47) were statistically significant predictors of treatment, as were episode duration (OR 2.21) and various variables assessing impairment due to depression (OR 4.65-8.02). In conclusion, only a minority of persons with depressive disorders seek professional treatment in the year of disorder onset. Women and subjects suffering from high levels of depressive symptoms, frequent episodes, long episode duration and consecutive high distress and impairment were more likely to seek treatment. PMID:26499773

  4. 30 years, some 700 integrals, and 1 dessert, or: Electroweak two-loop corrections to the Zbb vertex

    CERN Document Server

    Dubovyk, I; Gluza, J; Riemann, T; Usovitsch, J

    2016-01-01

    The one-loop corrections to the weak mixing angle $\\sin^2\\theta_{eff}^b$ derived from the $Z{\\bar b}b$ vertex, are known since 1985. It took another 30 years to calculate the complete electroweak two-loop corrections to $\\sin^2\\theta_{eff}^b$. The main obstacle was the calculation of the O(700) bosonic two-loop vertex integrals with up to three mass scales, at $s=M_Z^2$. We did not perform the usual integral reduction and master evaluation, but chose a completely numerical approach, using two different calculational chains. One method relies on publicly available sector decomposition implementations. Further, we derived Mellin-Barnes (MB) representations, exploring the publicly available MB suite. We had to supplement the MB suite by two new packages: AMBRE~3, a Mathematica program, for the efficient treatment of non-planar integrals and MBnumerics for advanced numerics in the Minkowskian space-time. Our preliminary result for LL2016, the "dessert", for the electroweak bosonic two-loop contributions to $\\sin^...

  5. THE ESSENTIALS OF RAINFALL DERIVATIVES AND INSURANCE

    OpenAIRE

    Turvey, Calum G.

    1999-01-01

    This paper investigates the use of rainfall insurance to manage agricultural production risks. A number of rainfall insurance products are presented along with a raitonal model which identifies the economics of rainfall. The use of rainfall insurance will increase in future years as capital markets, financial institutions, reinsurance companies, crop insurance companies, and hedge funds collectively organize to share and distribute weather risks. The focus of this paper is in fact directed to...

  6. A Study of Rainfall Variations in the Philippines: 1950-1996

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bonifacio Pajuelas

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available The long-period rainfall variations in the Philippines are studied using unfiltered and filtered Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI. To have RAI’s that are representative for each group, zones of quasi-homogeneous climate were constructed based on highly correlated stations (r > 0.75, narrow standard deviation, and period of maximum rainfall using the 1950-1996 monthly rainfall total. Variance analyses of the RAI’s suggest that unfiltered samples do not significantly differ from the normal distribution except for the western part (climate type 1 that have significant positive skewness and peakedness. The RAI’s contain a significant amount of non-random elements and a significant negative change in mean is reflected over the central Visayas and Mindanao (climate type 3. Filtered RAI’s that are not significantly different from the normal distribution (at least for c2 test indicated significant trend over areas with high-variable rainfall (i.e., climate types 1, 2, 4 & 5.In general, long-period rainfall may have changed over the period of study. The 10-year filtered RAI’s have the possibility of falling rate over climate types 1, 2 & 5, but increasing rate over climate type 4. These trends are indicated towards the rainfall-sensitive months (i.e., February through May during El Niño or La Niña events. Falling rate is also significant from October through January over climate type 4. Longer periods (30-year filtered RAI’s have significant negative trend for climate types 2 &4, but positive trend for climate type 5. These trends also occurred during February through May.

  7. A Merging Framework for Rainfall Estimation at High Spatiotemporal Resolution for Distributed Hydrological Modeling in a Data-Scarce Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yinping Long

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Merging satellite and rain gauge data by combining accurate quantitative rainfall from stations with spatial continuous information from remote sensing observations provides a practical method of estimating rainfall. However, generating high spatiotemporal rainfall fields for catchment-distributed hydrological modeling is a problem when only a sparse rain gauge network and coarse spatial resolution of satellite data are available. The objective of the study is to present a satellite and rain gauge data-merging framework adapting for coarse resolution and data-sparse designs. In the framework, a statistical spatial downscaling method based on the relationships among precipitation, topographical features, and weather conditions was used to downscale the 0.25° daily rainfall field derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA precipitation product version 7. The nonparametric merging technique of double kernel smoothing, adapting for data-sparse design, was combined with the global optimization method of shuffled complex evolution, to merge the downscaled TRMM and gauged rainfall with minimum cross-validation error. An indicator field representing the presence and absence of rainfall was generated using the indicator kriging technique and applied to the previously merged result to consider the spatial intermittency of daily rainfall. The framework was applied to estimate daily precipitation at a 1 km resolution in the Qinghai Lake Basin, a data-scarce area in the northeast of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The final estimates not only captured the spatial pattern of daily and annual precipitation with a relatively small estimation error, but also performed very well in stream flow simulation when applied to force the geomorphology-based hydrological model (GBHM. The proposed framework thus appears feasible for rainfall estimation at high spatiotemporal resolution in data-scarce areas.

  8. On extreme rainfall intensity increases with air temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molnar, Peter; Fatichi, Simone; Paschalis, Athanasios; Gaal, Ladislav; Szolgay, Jan; Burlando, Paolo

    2016-04-01

    The water vapour holding capacity of air increases at about 7% per degree C according to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. This is one of the arguments why a warmer future atmosphere, being able to hold more moisture, will generate higher extreme precipitation intensities. However, several empirical studies have recently demonstrated an increase in extreme rain intensities with air temperature above CC rates, in the range 7-14% per degree C worldwide (called super-CC rates). This was observed especially for shorter duration rainfall, i.e. in hourly and finer resolution data (e.g. review in Westra et al., 2014). The super-CC rate was attributed to positive feedbacks between water vapour and the updraft dynamics in convective clouds and lateral supply (convergence) of moisture. In addition, mixing of storm types was shown to be potentially responsible for super-CC rates in empirical studies. Assuming that convective events are accompanied by lightning, we will show on a large rainfall dataset in Switzerland (30 year records of 10-min and 1-hr data from 59 stations) that while the average rate of increase in extreme rainfall intensity (95th percentile) is 6-7% in no-lightning events and 8-9% in lightning events, it is 11-13% per degree C when all events are combined (Molnar et al., 2015). These results are relevant for climate change studies which predict shifts in storm types in a warmer climate in some parts of the world. The observation that extreme rain intensity and air temperature are positively correlated has consequences for the stochastic modelling of rainfall. Most current stochastic models do not explicitly include a direct rain intensity-air temperature dependency beyond applying factors of change predicted by climate models to basic statistics of precipitation. Including this dependency explicitly in stochastic models will allow, for example in the nested modelling approach of Paschalis et al. (2014), the random cascade disaggregation routine to be

  9. Adult neurobehavioral outcome of hyperbilirubinemia in full term neonates—a 30 year prospective follow-up study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Hokkanen

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background. Neonatal hyperbilirubinemia (HB may cause severe neurological damage, but serious consequences are effectively controlled by phototherapy and blood exchange transfusion. HB is still a serious health problem in economically compromised parts of the world. The long term outcome has been regarded favorable based on epidemiological data, but has not been confirmed in prospective follow-up studies extending to adulthood. Methods. We studied the long term consequences of HB in a prospective birth cohort of 128 HB cases and 82 controls. The cases are part of a neonatal at-risk cohort (n = 1196 that has been followed up to 30 years of age. HB cases were newborns ≥ 2500 g birth weight and ≥ 37 weeks of gestation who had bilirubin concentrations > 340 µmol/l or required blood exchange transfusion. Subjects with HB were divided into subgroups based on the presence (affected HB or absence (unaffected HB of diagnosed neurobehavioral disorders in childhood, and compared with healthy controls. Subjects were seen at discharge, 5, 9 and 16 years of life and parent’s and teacher’s assessments were recorded. At 30 years they filled a questionnaire about academic and occupational achievement, life satisfaction, somatic and psychiatric symptoms including a ADHD self-rating score. Cognitive functioning was tested using ITPA, WISC, and reading and writing tests at 9 years of life. Results. Compared to controls, the odds for a child with HB having neurobehavioral symptoms at 9 years was elevated (OR = 4.68. Forty-five per cent of the HB group were affected by cognitive abnormalities in childhood and continued to experience problems in adulthood. This was apparent in academic achievement (p < 0.0001 and the ability to complete secondary (p < 0.0001 and tertiary (p < 0.004 education. Also, the subgroup of affected HB reported persisting cognitive complaints e.g., problems with reading, writing and mathematics. Childhood symptoms of hyperactivity

  10. Spatial-Temporal Variation and Prediction of Rainfall in Northeastern Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Umar M. Bibi

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In Northeastern Nigeria seasonal rainfall is critical for the availability of water for domestic use through surface and sub-surface recharge and agricultural production, which is mostly rain fed. Variability in rainfall over the last 60 years is the main cause for crop failure and water scarcity in the region, particularly, due to late onset of rainfall, short dry spells and multi-annual droughts. In this study, we analyze 27 years (1980–2006 of gridded daily rainfall data obtained from a merged dataset by the National Centre for Environmental Prediction and Climate Research Unit reanalysis data (NCEP-CRU for spatial-temporal variability of monthly amounts and frequency in rainfall and rainfall trends. Temporal variability was assessed using the percentage coefficient of variation and temporal trends in rainfall were assessed using maps of linear regression slopes for the months of May through October. These six months cover the period of the onset and cessation of the wet season throughout the region. Monthly rainfall amount and frequency were then predicted over a 24-month period using the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA Model. The predictions were evaluated using NCEP-CRU data for the same period. Kolmogorov Smirnov test results suggest that despite there are some months during the wet season (May–October when there is no significant agreement (p < 0.05 between the monthly distribution of the values of the model and the corresponding 24-month NCEP-CRU data, the model did better than simply replicating the long term mean of the data used for the prediction. Overall, the model does well in areas and months with lower temporal rainfall variability. Maps of the coefficient of variation and regression slopes are presented to indicate areas of high rainfall variability and water deficit over the period under study. The implications of these results for future policies on Agriculture and Water Management in the region are

  11. Dynamic Rainfall Patterns and the Simulation of Changing Scenarios: A behavioral watershed response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, M.; Guzman, J.; Steiner, J. L.; Hou, C.; Moriasi, D.

    2015-12-01

    Rainfall is one of the fundamental drivers that control hydrologic responses including runoff production and transport phenomena that consequently drive changes in aquatic ecosystems. Quantifying the hydrologic responses to changing scenarios (e.g., climate, land use, and management) using environmental models requires a realistic representation of probable rainfall in its most sensible spatio-temporal dimensions matching that of the phenomenon under investigation. Downscaling projected rainfall from global circulation models (GCMs) is the most common practice in deriving rainfall datasets to be used as main inputs to hydrologic models which in turn are used to assess the impacts of climate changes on ecosystems. Downscaling assumes that local climate is a combination of large-scale climatic/atmospheric conditions and local conditions. However, the representation of the latter is generally beyond the capacity of current GCMs. The main objective of this study was to develop and implement a synthetic rainfall generator to downscale expected rainfall trends to 1 x 1 km rainfall daily patterns that mimic the dynamic propagation of probability distribution functions (pdf) derived from historic rainfall data (rain-gauge or radar estimated). Future projections were determined based on actual and expected changes in the pdf and stochastic processes to account for variability. Watershed responses in terms of streamflow and nutrients loads were evaluated using synthetically generated rainfall patterns and actual data. The framework developed in this study will allow practitioners to generate rainfall datasets that mimic the temporal and spatial patterns exclusive to their study area under full disclosure of the uncertainties involved. This is expected to provide significantly more accurate environmental models than is currently available and would provide practitioners with ways to evaluate the spectrum of systemic responses to changing scenarios.

  12. Applying Multiscale Entropy to the Complexity Analysis of Rainfall-Runoff Relationships

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chien-Ming Chou

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a novel framework for the complexity analysis of rainfall, runoff, and runoff coefficient (RC time series using multiscale entropy (MSE. The MSE analysis of RC time series was used to investigate changes in the complexity of rainfall-runoff processes due to human activities. Firstly, a coarse graining process was applied to a time series. The sample entropy was then computed for each coarse-grained time series, and plotted as a function of the scale factor. The proposed method was tested in a case study of daily rainfall and runoff data for the upstream Wu–Tu watershed. Results show that the entropy measures of rainfall time series are higher than those of runoff time series at all scale factors. The entropy measures of the RC time series are between the entropy measures of the rainfall and runoff time series at various scale factors. Results also show that the entropy values of rainfall, runoff, and RC time series increase as scale factors increase. The changes in the complexity of RC time series indicate the changes of rainfall-runoff relations due to human activities and provide a reference for the selection of rainfall-runoff models that are capable of dealing with great complexity and take into account of obvious self-similarity can be suggested to the modeling of rainfall-runoff processes. Moreover, the robustness of the MSE results were tested to confirm that MSE analysis is consistent and the same results when removing 25% data, making this approach suitable for the complexity analysis of rainfall, runoff, and RC time series.

  13. Modeling non-stationarity in intensity, duration and frequency of extreme rainfall over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondal, Arpita; Mujumdar, P. P.

    2015-02-01

    Significant changes are reported in extreme rainfall characteristics over India in recent studies though there are disagreements on the spatial uniformity and causes of trends. Based on recent theoretical advancements in the Extreme Value Theory (EVT), we analyze changes in extreme rainfall characteristics over India using a high-resolution daily gridded (1° latitude × 1° longitude) dataset. Intensity, duration and frequency of excess rain over a high threshold in the summer monsoon season are modeled by non-stationary distributions whose parameters vary with physical covariates like the El-Nino Southern Oscillation index (ENSO-index) which is an indicator of large-scale natural variability, global average temperature which is an indicator of human-induced global warming and local mean temperatures which possibly indicate more localized changes. Each non-stationary model considers one physical covariate and the best chosen statistical model at each rainfall grid gives the most significant physical driver for each extreme rainfall characteristic at that grid. Intensity, duration and frequency of extreme rainfall exhibit non-stationarity due to different drivers and no spatially uniform pattern is observed in the changes in them across the country. At most of the locations, duration of extreme rainfall spells is found to be stationary, while non-stationary associations between intensity and frequency and local changes in temperature are detected at a large number of locations. This study presents the first application of non-stationary statistical modeling of intensity, duration and frequency of extreme rainfall over India. The developed models are further used for rainfall frequency analysis to show changes in the 100-year extreme rainfall event. Our findings indicate the varying nature of each extreme rainfall characteristic and their drivers and emphasize the necessity of a comprehensive framework to assess resulting risks of precipitation induced flooding.

  14. Overall decrease in the susceptibility of Mycoplasma bovis to antimicrobials over the past 30 years in France.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne V Gautier-Bouchardon

    Full Text Available Mycoplasma (M. bovis is frequently implicated in respiratory diseases of young cattle worldwide. Today, to combat M. bovis in Europe, only antimicrobial therapy is available, but often fails, leading to important economical losses. The antimicrobial susceptibility of M. bovis is not covered by antimicrobial resistance surveillance networks. The objectives of this study were to identify resistances that were acquired over the last 30 years in France and to determine their prevalence within contemporary strains. The minimum inhibition concentration (MIC values of 12 antimicrobials, considered active on M. bovis, were compared, using an agar dilution method, between 27 and 46 M. bovis isolates respectively obtained in 1978-1979 and in 2010-2012 from 73 distinct respiratory disease outbreaks in young cattle all over France. For eight antimicrobials, resistances were proven to be acquired over the period and expressed by all contemporary strains. The increase of the MIC value that inhibited 50% of the isolates (MIC50 was: i substantial for tylosin, tilmicosin, tulathromycin and spectinomycin, from 2 to >64, 2 to >128, 16 to 128 and 4 to >64 µg/mL, respectively, ii moderate for enrofloxacin, danofloxacin, marbofloxacin and oxytetracycline, from 0.25 to 0.5, 0.25 to 0.5, 0.5 to 1, 32 to >32 µg/mL, respectively. No differences were observed for gamithromycin, tildipirosin, florfenicol and valnemulin with MIC50 of 128, 128, 8, <0.03 µg/mL, respectively. If referring to breakpoint MIC values published for respiratory bovine pathogens, all contemporary isolates would be intermediate in vivo for fluoroquinolones and resistant to macrolides, oxytetracycline, spectinomycin and florfenicol.

  15. Phenolic compositions of 50 and 30 year sequences of Australian red wines: the impact of wine age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McRae, Jacqui M; Dambergs, Robert G; Kassara, Stella; Parker, Mango; Jeffery, David W; Herderich, Markus J; Smith, Paul A

    2012-10-10

    The phenolic composition of red wine impacts upon the color and mouthfeel and thus quality of the wine. Both of these characteristics differ depending on the age of a wine, with the purple of young wines changing to brick red and the puckering or aggressive astringency softening in older wines. This study investigated the color parameters, tannin concentrations and tannin composition of a 50 year series of Cabernet Sauvignon wines from a commercial label as well as 30 year series of Cabernet Sauvignon and Shiraz wines from a separate commercial label to assess the impact of wine age on phenolic composition and concentration. The wine color density in wines of 40 to 50 years old was around 5 AU compared with 16 AU of wine less than 12 months old, which correlated well with the concentration of non-bleachable pigments and pigmented polymers. Conversely, the anthocyanin concentrations in 10 year old wines were substantially lower than that of recently bottled wines (around 100 mg/L compared with 627 mg/L, respectively), adding further evidence that non-bleachable pigments including pigmented polymers play a much larger role in long-term wine color than anthocyanins. No age-related trend was observed for tannin concentration, indicating that the widely noted softer astringency of older red wines cannot necessarily be directly related to lower concentrations of soluble wine tannin and is potentially a consequence of changes in tannin structure. Wine tannins from older wines were generally larger than tannins from younger wines and showed structural changes consistent with oxidation.

  16. 30 Year patterns of mortality in Tobago, West Indies, 1976-2005: impact of glucose intolerance and alcohol intake.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariam Molokhia

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: To determine the main predictors of all-cause and cardiovascular (CV mortality in a rural West Indian population in Plymouth, Tobago over 30 years. METHODS: Questionnaire survey for CV risk factors and alcohol consumption patterns administered at baseline in 1976 with 92.5% response rate. 831/832 patients were followed up until 2005 or death. RESULTS: Hypertension (>140/90 mm Hg was prevalent in 48% of men and 44% of women, and 21% of men and 17% of women had diabetes. Evidence showed most predictors for all cause and cardiovascular mortality having the main effects at ages 160/95 mm Hg (HR 1.68, 95% CI 1.09-2.60, diabetes (HR 3.28, 95% CI 1.89-5.69, and BMI (HR 1.04, 95% CI 1.00-1.07. The main predictors of cardiovascular mortality were similar in the fully adjusted model: high sessional alcohol intake (HR 2.47 95% CI 1.10-5.57, severe hypertension (HR 2.78 95% CI 1.56-4.95, diabetes (HR 3.68 95% CI 1.77-7.67 and additionally LVH, (HR 5.54 95% CI 1.38-22.26, however BMI did not show independent effects. For men, high sessional alcohol intake explains 27% of all cause mortality, and 40% of cardiovascular mortality at age <60 yrs. In adults aged <60 years, the attributable risk fraction for IGT/Diabetes and all cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality is 28% in women vs. 11% in men, and 22% in women vs. 6% in men respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In this Afro-Caribbean population we found that a major proportion of deaths are attributable to high sessional alcohol intake (in males, diabetes, and hypertension and these risk factors primarily operate in those below 60 years.

  17. Anthropometric Analysis of Faces and Heads of 18 to 30-Year Old Persians and its Comparison with Caucasian Ethnic Group

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Reza Farahvash M.D.

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Anthropometric facial analysis and quantitative measurements are useful methods for diagnosis, as well as planning in plastic surgery. The literature is replete with numerous related studies, few of which are about the Iranian population. This study was conducted to determine the average facial proportions of Iranians and compare it with that of Caucasians. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted on a convenient sample of 212 Iranians (male=108, female=104 aged 18-30 years who did not have any previous major facial surgery or trauma and their past two generations were Iranian. Measurements between facial landmarks were determined and compared with Caucasians with Student and one sample t-tests (P<0.05, 95% CI. Results: The intercanthal (en-en and eye widths (ex-en/R, forehead height 2 (tr-n, trichion-endocanthion (tr-en and nasofacial and nasofrontal angles were not significantly different between the participating men and women but other facial measurements were significantly different (Р<0.05. The head (ft-ft, eye (ex-en/R/L and nose widths (al-al and upper face height (n-sto, nasofrontal angle and nasal tip protrusion in the study population were not significantly different from Caucasians. The upper lip (sn-sto, lower face (sn-gn and forehead heights (tr-n and nasofacial angle of the female participants were not significantly different from Caucasian women but other facial measurements were significantly different (Р<0.05.Conclusion: Most facial anthropometric measurements of Iranian subjects were significantly different from those of Caucasians. More precise studies with larger sample sizes are warranted to reach a common conclusion on the facial anthropometric similarities or differences between the two populations.

  18. Prevalence of uncorrected refractive errors in adults aged 30 years and above in a rural population in Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uncorrected refractive errors are a leading cause of visual disability globally. This population-based study was done to estimate the prevalence of uncorrected refractive errors in adults aged 30 years and above of village Pawakah, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), Pakistan. Methods: It was a cross-sectional survey in which 1000 individuals were included randomly. All the individuals were screened for uncorrected refractive errors and those whose visual acuity (VA) was found to be less than 6/6 were refracted. In whom refraction was found to be unsatisfactory (i.e., a best corrected visual acuity of <6/6) further examination was done to establish the cause for the subnormal vision. Results: A total of 917 subjects participated in the survey (response rate 92%). The prevalence of uncorrected refractive errors was found to be 23.97% among males and 20% among females. The prevalence of visually disabling refractive errors was 6.89% in males and 5.71% in females. The prevalence was seen to increase with age, with maximum prevalence in 51-60 years age group. Hypermetropia (10.14%) was found to be the commonest refractive error followed by Myopia (6.00%) and Astigmatism (5.6%). The prevalence of Presbyopia was 57.5% (60.45% in males and 55.23% in females). Poor affordability was the commonest barrier to the use of spectacles, followed by unawareness. Cataract was the commonest reason for impaired vision after refractive correction. The prevalence of blindness was 1.96% (1.53% in males and 2.28% in females) in this community with cataract as the commonest cause. Conclusions: Despite being the most easily avoidable cause of subnormal vision uncorrected refractive errors still account for a major proportion of the burden of decreased vision in this area. Effective measures for the screening and affordable correction of uncorrected refractive errors need to be incorporated into the health care delivery system. (author)

  19. The distribution and trends of fog and haze in the North China Plain over the past 30 years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Q. Fu

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Frequent low visibility, haze and fog events were found in the North China Plain (NCP. Data throughout the NCP during the past 30 years were examined to determine the horizontal distribution and decadal trends of low visibility, haze and fog events. The impact of meteorological factors such as wind and RH on those events was investigated. Results reveal distinct distributions of haze and fog days, due to their different formation mechanisms. Low visibility, haze and fog days all display increasing trends of before 1995, a steady stage during 1995–2003 and a drastically drop thereafter. All three events occurred most frequently during the heating season. Benefiting from emission control measures, haze and fog both show decreasing trends in winter during the past 3 decades, while summertime haze displays continuous increasing trends. The distribution of wind speed and wind direction as well as the topography within the NCP has determinative impacts on the distribution of haze and fog. Weakened south-easterly winds in the southern part of the NCP has resulted in high pollutant concentrations and frequent haze events along the foot of the Taihang Mountains. The orographic wind convergence zone in the central band area of the southern NCP is responsible for the frequent fog events in this region. Wind speed has been decreasing throughout the entire southern NCP, resulting in more stable atmospheric conditions and weaker dispersion abilities, calling for harder efforts to control emissions to prevent haze events. Haze events are strongly influenced by the ambient RH. RH values associated with haze days are evidently increasing, suggesting that an increasing fraction of haze events are caused by the hygroscopic growth of aerosols, rather than simply by high aerosol loadings.

  20. Motives for and barriers to physical activity in twin pairs discordant for leisure time physical activity for 30 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aaltonen, S; Leskinen, T; Morris, T; Alen, M; Kaprio, J; Liukkonen, J; Kujala, U

    2012-02-01

    Long-term persistent physical activity is important in the prevention of chronic diseases, but a large number of people do not participate in physical activity to obtain health benefits. The purpose of this study was to examine the motives and perceived barriers to long-term engagement in leisure time physical activity. Same-sex twin pairs (N=16, mean age 60) discordant for physical activity over 30 years were identified from the Finnish Twin Cohort. We evaluated participants' physical activity motivation with the 73-item Recreational Exercise Motivation Measure and assessed barriers to physical activity with a 25-item questionnaire. The characteristics of physical activity motivation and perceived barriers between the active and inactive co-twins were analysed using paired tests. Motives related to the sub-dimensions of enjoyment and physical fitness and psychological state were the most important reasons for participation in physical activity among all the twin individuals analysed. The sub-dimensions mastery (p=0.018, Cohen's d=0.76), physical fitness (p=0.029, Cohen's d=0.69), and psychological state (p=0.039, Cohen's d=0.65) differed significantly between active and inactive co-twins. More than half of the participants reported no reasons for not being physically active. If reasons existed, participation in physical activity was deterred mostly by pain and various health problems. This study found no differences in perceived barriers between active and inactive co-twins. We conclude from our results that the main factors promoting persistent leisure time physical activity were participants' wish to improve or maintain their physical skills or techniques, a feeling that exercise would improve their mental and physical health and that they found the activity enjoyable. This study helps us understand the importance of the role of motives and the minor role of perceived barriers for engagement in persistent physical activity. PMID:22318531

  1. Prevention and treatment of gastrointestinal dysfunction following severe burns:A summary of recent 30-year clinical experience

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Shi-Chu Xiao; Shi-Hui Zhu; Zhao-Fan Xia; Wei Lu; Guang-Qing Wang; Dao-Feng Ben; Guang-Yi Wang; Da-Sheng Cheng

    2008-01-01

    AIM:To sum up the recent 30-year experience in the prevention and treatment of gastrointestinal dysfunction in severe burn patients,and propose practicable guidelines for the prevention and treatment of gastrointestinal (GI) dysfunction.METHODS= From 1980 to 2007,a total of 219 patients with large area and extraordinarily large area burns (LAB) were admitted,who were classified into three stages according the therapeutic protocols used at the time:Stage 1 from 1980 to 1989,stage 2 from 1990 to 1995,and stage 3 from 1996 to 2007.The occurrence and mortality of GI dysfunction in patients of the three stages were calculated and the main causes were analyzed.RESULTS:The occurrence of stress ulcer in patients with LAB was 8.6% in stage 1,which was significantly lower than that in stage 1 (P < 0.05).No massive hemorrhage from severe stress ulcer and enterogenic infections occurred in stages 2 and 3.The occurrence of abdominal distension and stress ulcer and the mortality in stage 3 patients with extraordinarily LAB was 7.1%,21.4% and 28.5%,respectively,which were significantly lower than those in stage 1 patients (P < 0.05 or P < 0.01),and the occurrence of stress ulcer was also significantly lower than that in stage 2 patients (P < 0.05).CONCLUSION:Comprehensive fluid resuscitation,early excision of necrotic tissue,staged food ingestion,and administration of specific nutrients are essential strategies for preventing gastrointestinal complications and lowering mortality in severely burned patients.

  2. Bias adjustment and advection interpolation of long-term high resolution radar rainfall series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk; Rasmussen, Michael R.

    2014-01-01

    known to depend on the changing drop size distribution of the specific rain. This creates a transient bias between the radar rainfall and the ground observations due to seasonal changes of the drop size distribution as well as other atmospheric effects and effects related to the radar observational...... technology. In this study different bias adjustment techniques is investigated, developing a complete 10-year dataset (2002–2012) of high spatio-temporal resolution radar rainfall based on a radar observations from a single C-band radar from Denmark. Results show that hourly adjustment mean field bias...... adjustment outperform daily mean field bias adjustment with regards to estimation of rainfall totals and peak rain rates. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that radar rainfall estimates can be improved significantly by implementation of a novel advection interpolation technique....

  3. Probability Distribution and Projected Trends of Daily Precipitation in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CAO; Li-Ge; ZHONG; Jun; SU; Bu-Da; ZHAI; Jian-Qing; Macro; GEMMER

    2013-01-01

    Based on observed daily precipitation data of 540 stations and 3,839 gridded data from the high-resolution regional climate model COSMO-Climate Limited-area Modeling(CCLM)for 1961–2000,the simulation ability of CCLM on daily precipitation in China is examined,and the variation of daily precipitation distribution pattern is revealed.By applying the probability distribution and extreme value theory to the projected daily precipitation(2011–2050)under SRES A1B scenario with CCLM,trends of daily precipitation series and daily precipitation extremes are analyzed.Results show that except for the western Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and South China,distribution patterns of the kurtosis and skewness calculated from the simulated and observed series are consistent with each other;their spatial correlation coefcients are above 0.75.The CCLM can well capture the distribution characteristics of daily precipitation over China.It is projected that in some parts of the Jianghuai region,central-eastern Northeast China and Inner Mongolia,the kurtosis and skewness will increase significantly,and precipitation extremes will increase during 2011–2050.The projected increase of maximum daily rainfall and longest non-precipitation period during flood season in the aforementioned regions,also show increasing trends of droughts and floods in the next 40 years.

  4. Interannual variability of seasonal rainfall over the Cape south coast of South Africa and synoptic type association

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engelbrecht, Christien J.; Landman, Willem A.

    2016-07-01

    The link between interannual variability of seasonal rainfall over the Cape south coast of South Africa and different synoptic types as well as selected teleconnections is explored. Synoptic circulation over the region is classified into different synoptic types by employing a clustering technique, the self-organizing map (SOM), on daily circulation data for the 33-year period from 1979 to 2011. Daily rainfall data are used to investigate interannual variability of seasonal rainfall within the context of the identified synoptic types. The anomalous frequency of occurrence of the different synoptic types for wet and for dry seasons differs significantly within the SOM space, except for austral spring. The main rainfall-producing synoptic types are to a large extent consistent for wet and dry seasons. The main rainfall-producing synoptic types have a notable larger contribution to seasonal rainfall totals during wet seasons than during dry seasons, consistent with a higher frequency of occurrence of the main rainfall-producing synoptic types during wet seasons compared to dry seasons. Dry seasons are characterized by a smaller contribution to seasonal rainfall totals by all the different synoptic types, but with the largest negative anomalies associated with low frequencies of the main rainfall-producing synoptic types. The frequencies of occurrence of specific configurations of ridging high pressure systems, cut-off lows and tropical-temperate troughs associated with rainfall are positively linked to interannual variability of seasonal rainfall. It is also shown that the distribution of synoptic types within the SOM space is linked to the Southern Annular Mode and El Niño Southern Oscillation, implying some predictability of intraseasonal variability at the seasonal time scale.

  5. Spatial variability and rainfall characteristics of Kerala

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Anu Simon; K Mohankumar

    2004-06-01

    Geographical regions of covariability in precipitation over the Kerala state are exposed using factor analysis. The results suggest that Kerala can be divided into three unique rainfall regions, each region having a similar covariance structure of annual rainfall. Stations north of 10°N (north Kerala) fall into one group and they receive more rainfall than stations south of 10°N (south Kerala). Group I stations receive more than 65% of the annual rainfall during the south-west monsoon period, whereas stations falling in Group II receive 25-30% of annual rainfall during the pre-monsoon and the north-east monsoon periods. The meteorology of Kerala is profoundly influenced by its orographical features, however it is difficult to make out a direct relationship between elevation and rainfall. Local features of the state as reflected in the rainfall distribution are also clearly brought out by the study.

  6. The Impact of Rainfall on Soil Moisture Dynamics in a Foggy Desert

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Bonan; Wang, Lixin; Kaseke, Kudzai F.; Li, Lin; Seely, Mary K.

    2016-01-01

    Soil moisture is a key variable in dryland ecosystems since it determines the occurrence and duration of vegetation water stress and affects the development of weather patterns including rainfall. However, the lack of ground observations of soil moisture and rainfall dynamics in many drylands has long been a major obstacle in understanding ecohydrological processes in these ecosystems. It is also uncertain to what extent rainfall controls soil moisture dynamics in fog dominated dryland systems. To this end, in this study, twelve to nineteen months’ continuous daily records of rainfall and soil moisture (from January 2014 to August 2015) obtained from three sites (one sand dune site and two gravel plain sites) in the Namib Desert are reported. A process-based model simulating the stochastic soil moisture dynamics in water-limited systems was used to study the relationships between soil moisture and rainfall dynamics. Model sensitivity in response to different soil and vegetation parameters under diverse soil textures was also investigated. Our field observations showed that surface soil moisture dynamics generally follow rainfall patterns at the two gravel plain sites, whereas soil moisture dynamics in the sand dune site did not show a significant relationship with rainfall pattern. The modeling results suggested that most of the soil moisture dynamics can be simulated except the daily fluctuations, which may require a modification of the model structure to include non-rainfall components. Sensitivity analyses suggested that soil hygroscopic point (sh) and field capacity (sfc) were two main parameters controlling soil moisture output, though permanent wilting point (sw) was also very sensitive under the parameter setting of sand dune (Gobabeb) and gravel plain (Kleinberg). Overall, the modeling results were not sensitive to the parameters in non-bounded group (e.g., soil hydraulic conductivity (Ks) and soil porosity (n)). Field observations, stochastic modeling

  7. An Improved Dynamical Downscaling Method with GCM Bias Corrections and Its Validation with 30 Years of Climate Simulations

    KAUST Repository

    Xu, Zhongfeng

    2012-09-01

    An improved dynamical downscaling method (IDD) with general circulation model (GCM) bias corrections is developed and assessed over North America. A set of regional climate simulations is performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) version 3.3 embedded in the National Center for Atmospheric Research\\'s (NCAR\\'s) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). The GCM climatological means and the amplitudes of interannual variations are adjusted based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-NCAR global reanalysis products (NNRP) before using them to drive WRF. In this study, the WRF downscaling experiments are identical except the initial and lateral boundary conditions derived from the NNRP, original GCM output, and bias-corrected GCM output, respectively. The analysis finds that the IDD greatly improves the downscaled climate in both climatological means and extreme events relative to the traditional dynamical downscaling approach (TDD). The errors of downscaled climatological mean air temperature, geopotential height, wind vector, moisture, and precipitation are greatly reduced when the GCM bias corrections are applied. In the meantime, IDD also improves the downscaled extreme events characterized by the reduced errors in 2-yr return levels of surface air temperature and precipitation. In comparison with TDD, IDD is also able to produce a more realistic probability distribution in summer daily maximum temperature over the central U.S.-Canada region as well as in summer and winter daily precipitation over the middle and eastern United States. © 2012 American Meteorological Society.

  8. Evaluating the demographic buffering hypothesis with vital rates estimated for Weddell seals from 30years of mark-recapture data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rotella, J.J.; Link, W.A.; Chambert, T.; Stauffer, G.E.; Garrott, R.A.

    2012-01-01

    1.Life-history theory predicts that those vital rates that make larger contributions to population growth rate ought to be more strongly buffered against environmental variability than are those that are less important. Despite the importance of the theory for predicting demographic responses to changes in the environment, it is not yet known how pervasive demographic buffering is in animal populations because the validity of most existing studies has been called into question because of methodological deficiencies. 2.We tested for demographic buffering in the southern-most breeding mammal population in the world using data collected from 5558 known-age female Weddell seals over 30years. We first estimated all vital rates simultaneously with mark-recapture analysis and then estimated process variance and covariance in those rates using a hierarchical Bayesian approach. We next calculated the population growth rate's sensitivity to changes in each of the vital rates and tested for evidence of demographic buffering by comparing properly scaled values of sensitivity and process variance in vital rates. 3.We found evidence of positive process covariance between vital rates, which indicates that all vital rates are affected in the same direction by changes in annual environment. Despite the positive correlations, we found strong evidence that demographic buffering occurred through reductions in variation in the vital rates to which population growth rate was most sensitive. Process variation in vital rates was inversely related to sensitivity measures such that variation was greatest in breeding probabilities, intermediate for survival rates of young animals and lowest for survival rates of older animals. 4.Our work contributes to a small but growing set of studies that have used rigorous methods on long-term, detailed data to investigate demographic responses to environmental variation. The information from these studies improves our understanding of life

  9. Serum TSH, thyroglobulin, and thyroid disorders in atomic bomb survivors exposed in youth: a study 30 years after exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A study of individuals in Hiroshima and Nagasaki who were under 20 years of age at the time of atomic bomb exposure and who had been exposed to 100+ rad was conducted to determine the frequency of thyroid disorders as well as the levels of serum thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH), antithyroglobulin antibody, and thyroglobulin (TG), 30 years after exposure. Thyroid disorders were detected in 56 of the 477 subjects of the 100+ rad exposed group and in 39 of the 501 subjects of the 0 rad exposed group, the prevalence being significantly higher in the former group (X2 = 3.872, P = 0.049). This increased prevalence of thyroid disorders in the 100+ rad exposed group was due to the increased occurrence of thyroid cancer and nontoxic uninodular goiter. Thyroid cancer was found in eight exposed individuals, all of whom belonged to the 100+ rad group; statistically, the prevalence was significantly higher (X2 = 7.919, P = 0.005). Nontoxic uninodular goiter was observed in 13 cases of the 100+ rad exposed group and 3 cases of the 0 rad exposed group, the prevalence in the 100+ rad exposed group being significantly higher (X2 = 6.584, P = 0.010). In these cases no increase of serum TSH or TG levels was observed. Mean serum TSH levels in individuals without thyroid disorders were 1.64 ± 1.89 μU/ml (n = 421) in the 100+ rad exposed group and 1.54 ± 1.86 μU/ml (n = 462) in the 0 rad exposed group. Mean serum TG levels were 13.49 ± 13.88 ng/ml (n = 421) in the 100+ rad exposed group and 14.76 ± 15.69 ng/ml (n = 462) in the 0 rad exposed group. Thus, these differences between the two groups were not significant. Also, no significant differences were observed between the 100+ rad and 0 rad exposed groups in the mean serum TSH and TG levels of the subjects who had thyroid diseases but had not been treated for the diseases, and the subjects who had no thyroid diseases. (J.P.N.)

  10. PREVALENCE AND RISK FACTORS OF HYPERTENSION AMONG ADULTS AGED 30 YEARS AND ABOVE IN A RURAL DWELLING OF KOTTAYAM, KERALA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anand

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available : INTRODUCTION: Rising prevalence of hypertension is a major public health challenge in India especially in Kerala. This cross sectional study was done to assess the prevalence of hypertension and its determinants in a rural population of Kottayam, Kerala. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Community based cross sectional study was carried out among 400 adults aged 30 years and above in a randomly selected ward of Ettumanoor panchayath, which is the field practice area of Govt. Medical college, Kottayam. A pretested semi structured questionnaire was used to collect information regarding socio demographic and behavioral factors. Standardized sphygmomanometric blood pressure measurement was taken by trained team members twice for each individual and the average of the two was taken as blood pressure. Anthropometric measurements were also done. A systolic blood pressure of ≥140mm of Hg and or diastolic BP≥90mm of Hg was regarded as hypertension. Data analysis was done using the software Epi-info version 3.4.3. Chi square test revealed the association between hypertension (dependent variable and other socio demographic and behavioural factors (independent variable. A p-value of <0.05 was taken as significant. All the significant variables are included in the binary logistic regression to find out Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR RESULTS: The overall prevalence of hypertension was 35% (males-33.8% females -35.6%. The variables which evolved as significant and remained so in binary logistic regression analysis were single status after marriage/ unmarried (AOR-2.45 95% CI 1.38-4.38, low educational status (AOR- 2.31, 95%CI-1.46-3.64, family history of hypertension (AOR-1.85 95%CI-1.2-2.85 and trunkal obesity in females (AOR-2.41 95%CI-1.37-4.24 CONCLUSION: The present study revealed the prevalence (35% and risk factors for hypertension in the study area. The results of the study can be used to develop messages to make the people aware of the problem of hypertension

  11. Predicting watershed acidification under alternate rainfall conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The effect of alternate rainfall scenarios on acidification of a forested watershed subjected to chronic acidic deposition was assessed using the model of acidification of groundwater in catchments (MAGIC). The model was calibrated at the Panola Mountain Research Watershed, near Atlanta, Georgia, USA using measured soil properties, wet and dry deposition, and modeled hydrologic routing. Model forecast simulations were evaluated to compare alternate temporal averaging of rainfall inputs and variations in rainfall amount and seasonal distribution. Soil water alkalinity was predicted to decrease to substantially lower concentrations under lower rainfall compared with current or higher rainfall conditions. Soil water alkalinity was also predicted to decrease to lower levels when the majority of rainfall occurred during the growing season compared with other rainfall distributions. Changes in rainfall distribution that result in decreases in net soil water flux will temporarily delay acidification. Ultimately, however, decreased soilwater flux will result in larger increases in soil-adsorbed sulfur and soil-water sulfate concentrations and decreases in alkalinity when compared to higher water flux conditions. Potential climate change resulting in significant changes in rainfall amounts, seasonal distributions of rainfall, or evapotranspiration will change net soil water flux and, consequently, will affect the dynamics of the acidification response to continued sulfate loading. 29 refs., 7 figs., 4 tabs

  12. Energy production. The Rance plant: 30 years of exploitation; Production d`energie. L`usine de la Rance: 30 ans d`exploitation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lavy, P. [EdF Production Transport (France)

    1997-10-01

    On November 26, 1996, the Rance tidal power plant celebrated its 30 years of operation. This plant remains the most powerful in the world and its building was possible thanks to major technological innovations. This paper gives a statement of 30 years of operation of the plant: its main characteristics, the plant operation (functioning cycles, power systems, organization of operation, automation), the behaviour of materials (civil engineering, cathodic protection, turbines), the behaviour of alternators (wear, maintenance, sluice gates, electrical insulation, other materials, power production and availability results of plant operation), and the environmental impact of the plant (sedimentation, ecosystems). (J.S.) 4 refs.

  13. Assessment of a climate model to reproduce rainfall variability and extremes over Southern Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, C. J. R.; Kniveton, D. R.; Layberry, R.

    2010-01-01

    It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The sub-continent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of ability of a state of the art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite-derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infrared Rainfall Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993 to 2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1° longitude/latitude. This paper concentrates primarily on the ability of the model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of present-day rainfall variability over southern Africa and is not intended to discuss possible future changes in climate as these have been documented elsewhere. Simulations of current climate from the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model, in both regional and global mode, are firstly compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Secondly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes is assessed, again by a comparison with

  14. Basque Country as Alternative Media laboratory. Compilation of the most interesting experiences for the last 30 years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Txema Ramírez-de-la-Piscina

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This work is an overview of the general situation of Alternative Media in the Basque Country, concentrating on a specific communication project: the pirate radio Hala Bedi Irratia, a tolerated but not completely legal radio station, which in 2008 celebrated its 25th anniversary. The station has thousands of listeners daily and it broadcasts 24 hours a day. It survives thanks to the voluntary work of dozens of social communicators. They have never included a paid advertisement on their air waves, nor have they asked for a grant from the State. Nevertheless, the project is very much alive. The station is based on a very wide social network which supports it, and on a very intelligent use of new technologies.

  15. Observed and projected changes in temperature and rainfall in Cambodia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heng Chan Thoeun

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Temperature and rainfall patterns in Cambodia are governed by monsoons and characterized by two major wet and dry seasons. The average annual rainfall is 1400 mm in the central low land regions and may reach 4000 mm in certain coastal zones or in highland areas. The annual average temperature is 28 °C, with an average maximum temperature of 38 °C in April and an average minimum temperature of 17 °C in January. This paper presents the climate change scenarios using MAGICC–SCENGEN program, which links emissions scenarios with global and regional climate change and has adopted the regional climate model (PRECIS in combination with a number of GCM models with resolution of 50×50 km, using observation data and two historical and future climate data sets generated by RCM model downscaling under the two emission scenarios SRES A2 and SRES B2. Projections of maximum and minimum temperatures and rainfall patterns from 2008 to 2099 are described. For future studies, daily data are required perform vulnerability and adaptation assessments.

  16. Non–stationarity in annual maxima rainfall across Australia – implications for Intensity–Frequency–Duration (IFD relationships

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. C. Verdon-Kidd

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall Intensity–Frequency–Duration (IFD relationships are commonly required for the design and planning of water supply and management systems around the world. Currently IFD information is based on the "stationary climate assumption" – that weather at any point in time will vary randomly and that the underlying climate statistics (including both averages and extremes will remain constant irrespective of the period of record. However, the validity of this assumption has been questioned over the last 15 years, particularly in Australia, following an improved understanding of the significant impact of climate variability and change occurring on interannual to multidecadal timescales. This paper provides evidence of non-stationarity in annual maxima rainfall timeseries using 96 daily rainfall stations and 66 sub-daily rainfall stations across Australia. Further, the effect of non-stationarity on the resulting IFD estimates are explored for three long-term sub-daily rainfall records (Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne utilising insights into multidecadal climate variability. It is demonstrated that IFD relationships may under- or over-estimate the design rainfall depending on the length and time period spanned by the rainfall data used to develop the IFD information. It is recommended that non-stationarity in annual maxima rainfall be explicitly considered and appropriately treated in the ongoing revisions of Engineers Australia's guide to estimating and utilising IFD information, "Australian Rainfall and Runoff", and that clear guidance needs to be provided on how to deal with the issue of non-stationarity of extreme events (irrespective of whether that non-stationarity is due to natural or anthropogenic climate change. The findings of our study also have important implications for other regions of the world that exhibit considerable hydroclimatic variability and where IFD information is based on relatively short data sets.

  17. Post processing rainfall forecasts from numerical weather prediction models for short term streamflow forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. E. Robertson

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Sub-daily ensemble rainfall forecasts that are bias free and reliably quantify forecast uncertainty are critical for flood and short-term ensemble streamflow forecasting. Post processing of rainfall predictions from numerical weather prediction models is typically required to provide rainfall forecasts with these properties. In this paper, a new approach to generate ensemble rainfall forecasts by post processing raw NWP rainfall predictions is introduced. The approach uses a simplified version of the Bayesian joint probability modelling approach to produce forecast probability distributions for individual locations and forecast periods. Ensemble forecasts with appropriate spatial and temporal correlations are then generated by linking samples from the forecast probability distributions using the Schaake shuffle. The new approach is evaluated by applying it to post process predictions from the ACCESS-R numerical weather prediction model at rain gauge locations in the Ovens catchment in southern Australia. The joint distribution of NWP predicted and observed rainfall is shown to be well described by the assumed log-sinh transformed multivariate normal distribution. Ensemble forecasts produced using the approach are shown to be more skilful than the raw NWP predictions both for individual forecast periods and for cumulative totals throughout the forecast periods. Skill increases result from the correction of not only the mean bias, but also biases conditional on the magnitude of the NWP rainfall prediction. The post processed forecast ensembles are demonstrated to successfully discriminate between events and non-events for both small and large rainfall occurrences, and reliably quantify the forecast uncertainty. Future work will assess the efficacy of the post processing method for a wider range of climatic conditions and also investigate the benefits of using post processed rainfall forecast for flood and short term streamflow forecasting.

  18. Rainfall erosivity in catchments contaminated with fallout from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laceby, J. Patrick; Chartin, Caroline; Evrard, Olivier; Onda, Yuichi; Garcia-Sanchez, Laurent; Cerdan, Olivier

    2016-06-01

    The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (FDNPP) accident in March 2011 resulted in the fallout of significant quantities of radiocesium over the Fukushima region. After reaching the soil surface, radiocesium is quickly bound to fine soil particles. Thereafter, rainfall and snowmelt run-off events transfer particle-bound radiocesium downstream. Characterizing the precipitation regime of the fallout-impacted region is thus important for understanding post-deposition radiocesium dynamics. Accordingly, 10 min (1995-2015) and daily precipitation data (1977-2015) from 42 meteorological stations within a 100 km radius of the FDNPP were analyzed. Monthly rainfall erosivity maps were developed to depict the spatial heterogeneity of rainfall erosivity for catchments entirely contained within this radius. The mean average precipitation in the region surrounding the FDNPP is 1420 mm yr-1 (SD 235) with a mean rainfall erosivity of 3696 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 yr-1 (SD 1327). Tropical cyclones contribute 22 % of the precipitation (422 mm yr-1) and 40 % of the rainfall erosivity (1462 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 yr-1 (SD 637)). The majority of precipitation (60 %) and rainfall erosivity (82 %) occurs between June and October. At a regional scale, rainfall erosivity increases from the north to the south during July and August, the most erosive months. For the remainder of the year, this gradient occurs mostly from northwest to southeast. Relief features strongly influence the spatial distribution of rainfall erosivity at a smaller scale, with the coastal plains and coastal mountain range having greater rainfall erosivity than the inland Abukuma River valley. Understanding these patterns, particularly their spatial and temporal (both inter- and intraannual) variation, is important for contextualizing soil and particle-bound radiocesium transfers in the Fukushima region. Moreover, understanding the impact of tropical cyclones will be important for managing sediment and sediment-bound contaminant

  19. A Prototype Visualization of Real-time River Drainage Network Response to Rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demir, I.; Krajewski, W. F.

    2011-12-01

    The Iowa Flood Information System (IFIS) is a web-based platform developed by the Iowa Flood Center (IFC) to provide access to and visualization of flood inundation maps, real-time flood conditions, flood forecasts both short-term and seasonal, and other flood-related data for communities in Iowa. The key element of the system's architecture is the notion of community. Locations of the communities, those near streams and rivers, define basin boundaries. The IFIS streams rainfall data from NEXRAD radar, and provides three interfaces including animation for rainfall intensity, daily rainfall totals and rainfall accumulations for past 14 days for Iowa. A real-time interactive visualization interface is developed using past rainfall intensity data. The interface creates community-based rainfall products on-demand using watershed boundaries of each community as a mask. Each individual rainfall pixel is tracked in the interface along the drainage network, and the ones drains to same pixel location are accumulated. The interface loads recent rainfall data in five minute intervals that are combined with current values. Latest web technologies are utilized for the development of the interface including HTML 5 Canvas, and JavaScript. The performance of the interface is optimized to run smoothly on modern web browsers. The interface controls allow users to change internal parameters of the system, and operation conditions of the animation. The interface will help communities understand the effects of rainfall on water transport in stream and river networks and make better-informed decisions regarding the threat of floods. This presentation provides an overview of a unique visualization interface and discusses future plans for real-time dynamic presentations of streamflow forecasting.

  20. Two years of country-wide rainfall maps employing cellular communication networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uijlenhoet, Remko; Overeem, Aart; Leijnse, Hidde; Rios Gaona, Manuel Felipe

    2014-05-01

    Accurate rainfall observations with high spatial and temporal resolutions are needed for hydrological applications, agriculture, meteorology, and climate monitoring. However, the majority of the land surface of the earth lacks accurate rainfall information and the number of rain gauges is even severely declining in Europe, South-America, and Africa. This calls for alternative sources of rainfall information. Various studies have shown that microwave links from operational cellular telecommunication networks may be employed for rainfall monitoring. Such networks cover 20% of the land surface of the earth and have a high density, especially in urban areas. The basic principle of rainfall monitoring using microwave links is as follows. Rainfall attenuates the electromagnetic signals transmitted from one telephone tower to another. By measuring the received power at one end of a microwave link as a function of time, the path-integrated attenuation due to rainfall can be calculated. Previous studies have shown that average rainfall intensities over the length of a link can be derived from the path-integrated attenuation. This is particularly interesting for those countries where few surface rainfall observations are available. Here we present almost two years of country-wide rainfall maps employing cellular communication networks. A data set from a commercial microwave link network over the Netherlands is analyzed, containing data from an unprecedented number of links (~ 2000) covering the land surface of the Netherlands (35500 square kilometers). This data set almost completely covers the years 2011 and 2012. Fifteen-minute and daily rainfall maps (1 km spatial resolution) are derived from the microwave link data and compared to maps from a gauge-adjusted radar data set. The performance of the rainfall retrieval algorithm will be studied, particularly differences in time and space. Time series of air temperature and snow from automatic weather stations, operated by the

  1. Analysis of meteorological trigger conditions for torrential processes on a daily time scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braun, Martin; Kaitna, Roland

    2016-04-01

    Floods, intensive bedload transport, debris floods, and debris flows represent a severe hazard in torrent catchments in Alpine regions. These processes are expected to be mostly triggered by intensive, localized thunderstorm events or long lasting low-pressure systems. For forecasting debris flow hazards and estimation of potential changes due to climate change, identification of meteorological trigger conditions is of interest. In this study we investigate meteorological trigger conditions of torrential events recorded in Austria. The analysis is based on daily rainfall and temperature data. In total 7617 events and 1032 data-sets from meteorological stations, distributed over a region of approximately 80,000 km², and dating back until the year 1874, are available for analysis. Nearest stations to event as well as a weighted distance approach were combined with a Bayesian analysis to determine typical trigger conditions in different alpine settings. While according to Bayesian analysis the majority of debris flows is likely to be triggered by short rainfall events with an intensity of 60-70 mm/day, the signal for debris floods is less clear. Thresholds for debris floods tend to show higher rainfall intensities of 70-100 mm/day as prerequisites, but also a significant amount was caused by longer rainfall durations up to two days. Furthermore, the total event rainfall plays a higher role compared to debris flows. Intensive bedload transport shows a more complex relationship with a typical triggering event rainfall between 150 and 200 mm and rainfall intensities exceeding 100 mm/day. Flood events are mainly caused by a complex combination of influencing factors with different combinations of triggering event rainfall, high rainfall intensities and rainfall duration. The results of our study contribute to an improved understanding of torrential activity in the Alps and examine the influence of rainfall conditions on different types of torrential events.

  2. Changes in the geographical distribution and abundance of the tick Ixodes ricinus during the past 30 years in Sweden

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaenson Thomas GT

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Ixodes ricinus is the main vector in Europe of human-pathogenic Lyme borreliosis (LB spirochaetes, the tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV and other pathogens of humans and domesticated mammals. The results of a previous 1994 questionnaire, directed at people living in Central and North Sweden (Svealand and Norrland and aiming to gather information about tick exposure for humans and domestic animals, suggested that Ixodes ricinus ticks had become more widespread in Central Sweden and the southern part of North Sweden from the early 1980s to the early 1990s. To investigate whether the expansion of the tick's northern geographical range and the increasing abundance of ticks in Sweden were still occurring, in 2009 we performed a follow-up survey 16 years after the initial study. Methods A questionnaire similar to the one used in the 1994 study was published in Swedish magazines aimed at dog owners, home owners, and hunters. The questionnaire was published together with a popular science article about the tick's biology and role as a pathogen vector in Sweden. The magazines were selected to get information from people familiar with ticks and who spend time in areas where ticks might be present. Results Analyses of data from both surveys revealed that during the near 30-year period from the early 1980s to 2008, I. ricinus has expanded its distribution range northwards. In the early 1990s ticks were found in new areas along the northern coastline of the Baltic Sea, while in the 2009 study, ticks were reported for the first time from many locations in North Sweden. This included locations as far north as 66°N and places in the interior part of North Sweden. During this 16-year period the tick's range in Sweden was estimated to have increased by 9.9%. Most of the range expansion occurred in North Sweden (north of 60°N where the tick's coverage area doubled from 12.5% in the early 1990s to 26.8% in 2008. Moreover, according to the

  3. Development of a censored modelling approach for stochastic estimation of rainfall extremes at fine temporal scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, David; Onof, Christian; Bernardara, Pietro

    2016-04-01

    heavy rainfall. Tipping bucket raingauge data aggregated to a minimum temporal resolution of 15 minutes have been identified throughout the UK, and the longest records (minimum 30 years duration) have been selected for analysis. Rainfall extremes are estimated for a range of annual exceedance probabilities to a minimum 1e-4 (10,000 year return period) by simulating up to 100,000 years of rainfall and sampling annual maxima and peaks over high threshold. A range of low thresholds are tested for the censored modelling, as well as seasonally varying thresholds, and the results compared with comparable estimates from extreme value analysis. References: Centre for Ecology & Hydrology. (2015) Anonymous's blog. North West floods - Hydrological update. Weblog [Posted 08/12/2015 - 14:18]. Available from: http://www.ceh.ac.uk/news-and-media/blogs/north-west-floods-hydrological-update [Accessed 04/01/2016].

  4. A simple simulation approach to generate complex rainfall fields conditioned by elevation: example of the eastern Mediterranean region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oriani, Fabio; Ohana-Levi, Noa; Straubhaar, Julien; Renard, Philippe; Karnieli, Arnon; Mariethoz, Grégoire; Morin, Efrat; Marra, Francesco

    2016-04-01

    Stochastically generating realistic rainfall fields is useful to study the uncertainty related to catchment recharge and its propagation to distributed hydrological models. To this end, it is critical to use weather radar images as training data, being the single most informative source for rainfall spatial heterogeneity. Generating realistic simulations is particularly important in regions like the eastern Mediterranean, where the synoptic conditions can lead to rainfall fields presenting various morphology, anisotropy and non-stationarity. The Direct Sampling (DS) technique [Mariethoz2010] is proposed here as a stochastic generator of spatial daily rainfall fields relying on the simulation of radar imagery. The technique is based on resampling of a training data set (in this case, a stack of radar images) and the generation of similar patterns to the ones found in the data. The strong point of DS, which makes it an attractive simulation approach for rainfall, is its capability to preserve the high-order statistical features present in the training image (e.g., rainfall cell shape, spatial non-stationarity) with minimal parameterization. Moreover, factors influencing rainfall, like elevation, can be used as conditioning variables, without the need of a complex statistical dependence model. A DS setup for radar image simulation is presented and tested for the simulation of daily rainfall fields using a 10-year radar-image record from the central region of Israel. Using a synoptic weather classification to train the model, the algorithm can generate realistic spatial fields for different rainfall types, preserving the variability and the covariance structure of the reference reasonably well. Moreover, the simulation is conditioned using the digital elevation model to preserve the complex relation between rainfall intensity and altitude that is characteristic for this region. [Mariethoz2010] G. Mariethoz, P. Renard, and J. Straubhaar. The direct sampling method to

  5. Development of a Compound Distribution Markov Chain Model for Stochastic Generation of Rainfall with Long Term Persistence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamal Chowdhury, AFM; Lockart, Natalie; Willgoose, Garry; Kuczera, George

    2015-04-01

    One of the overriding issues in the rainfall simulation is the underestimation of observed rainfall variability in longer timescales (e.g. monthly, annual and multi-year), which usually results into under-estimation of reservoir reliability in urban water planning. This study has developed a Compound Distribution Markov Chain (CDMC) model for stochastic generation of daily rainfall. We used two parameters of Markov Chain process (transition probabilities of wet-to-wet and dry-to-dry days) for simulating rainfall occurrence and two parameters of gamma distribution (calculated from mean and standard deviation of wet-day rainfall) for simulating wet-day rainfall amounts. While two models with deterministic parameters underestimated long term variability, our investigation found that the long term variability of rainfall in the model is predominantly governed by the long term variability of gamma parameters, rather than the variability of Markov Chain parameters. Therefore, in the third approach, we developed the CDMC model with deterministic parameters of Markov Chain process, but stochastic parameters of gamma distribution by sampling the mean and standard deviation of wet-day rainfall from their log-normal and bivariate-normal distribution. We have found that the CDMC is able to replicate both short term and long term rainfall variability, when we calibrated the model at two sites in east coast of Australia using three types of daily rainfall data - (1) dynamically downscaled, 10 km resolution gridded data produced by NSW/ACT Regional Climate Modelling project, (2) 5 km resolution gridded data by Australian Water Availability Project and (3) point scale raingauge stations data by Bureau of Meteorology, Australia. We also examined the spatial variability of parameters and their link with local orography at our field site. The suitability of the model in runoff generation and urban reservoir-water simulation will be discussed.

  6. Introducing a rainfall compound distribution model based on weather patterns sub-sampling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Garavaglia

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a probabilistic model for daily rainfall, using sub-sampling based on meteorological circulation. We classified eight typical but contrasted synoptic situations (weather patterns for France and surrounding areas, using a "bottom-up" approach, i.e. from the shape of the rain field to the synoptic situations described by geopotential fields. These weather patterns (WP provide a discriminating variable that is consistent with French climatology, and allows seasonal rainfall records to be split into more homogeneous sub-samples, in term of meteorological genesis.

    First results show how the combination of seasonal and WP sub-sampling strongly influences the identification of the asymptotic behaviour of rainfall probabilistic models. Furthermore, with this level of stratification, an asymptotic exponential behaviour of each sub-sample appears as a reasonable hypothesis. This first part is illustrated with two daily rainfall records from SE of France.

    The distribution of the multi-exponential weather patterns (MEWP is then defined as the composition, for a given season, of all WP sub-sample marginal distributions, weighted by the relative frequency of occurrence of each WP. This model is finally compared to Exponential and Generalized Pareto distributions, showing good features in terms of robustness and accuracy. These final statistical results are computed from a wide dataset of 478 rainfall chronicles spread on the southern half of France. All these data cover the 1953–2005 period.

  7. Abrupt state change of river water quality (turbidity): Effect of extreme rainfalls and typhoons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chih-Sheng; Lee, Yi-Chao; Chiang, Hui-Min

    2016-07-01

    River turbidity is of dynamic nature, and its stable state is significantly changed during the period of heavy rainfall events. The frequent occurrence of typhoons in Taiwan has caused serious problems in drinking water treatment due to extremely high turbidity. The aim of the present study is to evaluate impact of typhoons on river turbidity. The statistical methods used included analyses of paired annual mean and standard deviation, frequency distribution, and moving standard deviation, skewness, and autocorrelation; all clearly indicating significant state changes of river turbidity. Typhoon Morakot of 2009 (recorded high rainfall over 2000mm in three days, responsible for significant disaster in southern Taiwan) is assumed as a major initiated event leading to critical state change. In addition, increasing rate of turbidity in rainfall events is highly and positively correlated with rainfall intensity both for pre- and post-Morakot periods. Daily turbidity is also well correlated with daily flow rate for all the eleven events evaluated. That implies potential prediction of river turbidity by river flow rate during rainfall and typhoon events. Based on analysis of stable state changes, more effective regulations for better basin management including soil-water conservation in watershed are necessary. Furthermore, municipal and industrial water treatment plants need to prepare and ensure the adequate operation of water treatment with high raw water turbidity (e.g., >2000NTU). Finally, methodology used in the present of this study can be applied to other environmental problems with abrupt state changes. PMID:26994797

  8. Urban rainfall estimation employing commercial microwave links

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overeem, Aart; Leijnse, Hidde; Uijlenhoet, Remko; ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire

    2015-04-01

    Urban areas often lack rainfall information. To increase the number of rainfall observations in cities, microwave links from operational cellular telecommunication networks may be employed. Although this new potential source of rainfall information has been shown to be promising, its quality needs to be demonstrated more extensively. In the Rain Sense kickstart project of the Amsterdam Institute for Advanced Metropolitan Solutions (AMS), sensors and citizens are preparing Amsterdam for future weather. Part of this project is rainfall estimation using new measurement techniques. Innovative sensing techniques will be utilized such as rainfall estimation from microwave links, umbrellas for weather sensing, low-cost sensors at lamp posts and in drainage pipes for water level observation. These will be combined with information provided by citizens in an active way through smartphone apps and in a passive way through social media posts (Twitter, Flickr etc.). Sensor information will be integrated, visualized and made accessible to citizens to help raise citizen awareness of urban water management challenges and promote resilience by providing information on how citizens can contribute in addressing these. Moreover, citizens and businesses can benefit from reliable weather information in planning their social and commercial activities. In the end city-wide high-resolution rainfall maps will be derived, blending rainfall information from microwave links and weather radars. This information will be used for urban water management. This presentation focuses on rainfall estimation from commercial microwave links. Received signal levels from tens of microwave links within the Amsterdam region (roughly 1 million inhabitants) in the Netherlands are utilized to estimate rainfall with high spatial and temporal resolution. Rainfall maps will be presented and compared to a gauge-adjusted radar rainfall data set. Rainfall time series from gauge(s), radars and links will be compared.

  9. A Scenario of Rainfall Erosivity Index Research

    OpenAIRE

    D .V. Pandit1; R. K. Isaac2

    2015-01-01

    Rainfall erosivity index is an important index to evaluate the soil loss due to rainfall. Rainstorm plays a paramount role in surface sealing, runoff and erosion process. Research on rainfall erosivity index is important in understanding the mechanism of soil erosion processes. This paper gives a scenario on the important research work done by the scientists to evaluate the erosivity index by using various methods and approaches. The aim of this paper was also to highl...

  10. High-affinity human leucocyte antigen class I binding variola-derived peptides induce CD4(+) T cell responses more than 30 years post-vaccinia virus vaccination

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, M.; Tang, Sheila Tuyet; Lund, Ole;

    2009-01-01

    Interferon-gamma secreting T lymphocytes against pox virus-derived synthetic 9-mer peptides were tested by enzyme-linked immunospot in peripheral blood of individuals vaccinated with vaccinia virus more than 30 years ago. The peptides were characterized biochemically as high-affinity human...

  11. Total nuclear phaseout. 30 years after Chernobyl. What still has to be done; Alle aussteigen. 30 Jahre nach Tschernobyl. Was noch zu tun ist

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2016-03-15

    The brochure of the German Federal Environment Ministry on the necessity of total nuclear phaseout 30 years after Chernobyl discusses the following issues that still have to be done: Search for a final repository in deep rocks, building of a steel dome for Chernobyl and the roadmap for nuclear phaseout.

  12. Attributes for MRB_E2RF1 Catchments by Major River Basins in the Conterminous United States: 30-Year Average Annual Precipitation, 1971-2000

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This tabular data set represents the 30-year (1971-2000) catchment-average total annual precipitation in millimeters multiplied by 100 compiled for every MRB_E2RF1...

  13. The clinical database and the treatment guidelines of the Danish Breast Cancer Cooperative Group (DBCG); its 30-years experience and future promise

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moller, S.; Jensen, M.B.; Ejlertsen, B.;

    2008-01-01

    Introduction. Since 30 years, DBCG (Danish Breast Cancer Cooperative Group) has maintained a clinical database allowing the conduct of quality control studies, of randomised trials, examination of the epidemiology of breast cancer and of prognostic and predictive factors. Material and methods. The...

  14. 46 CFR 31.10-21a - Periodic gauging of tank vessel midbodies more than 30 years old that carry certain oil cargoes...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... years old that carry certain oil cargoes-TB/ALL. 31.10-21a Section 31.10-21a Shipping COAST GUARD... gauging of tank vessel midbodies more than 30 years old that carry certain oil cargoes—TB/ALL. (a) As used... years old. (2) Regaugings: (i) Midbodies of double hull tank vessels, or single hull tank vessels...

  15. Predicting Family Poverty and Other Disadvantaged Conditions for Child Rearing from Childhood Aggression and Social Withdrawal: A 30-Year Longitudinal Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serbin, Lisa A.; Temcheff, Caroline E.; Cooperman, Jessica M.; Stack, Dale M.; Ledingham, Jane; Schwartzman, Alex E.

    2011-01-01

    This 30-year longitudinal study examined pathways from problematic childhood behavior patterns to future disadvantaged conditions for family environment and child rearing in adulthood. Participants were mothers (n = 328) and fathers (n = 222) with lower income backgrounds participating in the ongoing Concordia Longitudinal Risk Project. Structural…

  16. Design rainfall calculation for un-gauged basin%无资料地区设计暴雨计算研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    栗雪峰; 刘俊萍

    2014-01-01

    山西云首水库所在的小流域无实测暴雨资料,水库工程设计时需要进行设计暴雨计算以推求设计洪水。参考了当地水文手册和水文图集,计算出5种标准历时的设计点雨量,通过点面折算系数得到设计面雨量,再采用暴雨公式将标准历时的设计面雨量转化为任一历时的设计雨量。计算了设计暴雨的日雨型和时雨型,并借助暴雨公式确定了主雨历时和雨量,为该区域设计洪水计算提供了不同频率的设计暴雨和暴雨时程分配资料。%There is no measured rainfall data in the reservoir area of Yunshou Reservoir in Shanxi Province. In order to calcu-late design flood, the rainfall calculation is needed. The design point rainfalls of 5 standard durations are calculated by referring the local hydrology manuals and hydrological atlas and then the design areal rainfall is obtained by point-surface conversion coef-ficient and the design areal rainfalls of standard durations are transformed into design areal rainfall of any duration by rainfall for-mula. The calculation of daily rainfall pattern and hourly rainfall pattern of design rainfall are carried out. The main rainfall dura-tions and main rainfalls are determined by rainfall formula, which provide the design rainfall and distribution of rainfall pattern of different frequency for the design flood calculation.

  17. Physics in daily life

    CERN Document Server

    Hermans, Jo

    2012-01-01

    This book provides answers to everyday questions that any curious mind would ask, like : Why is water blue ? What makes ice so slippery ? How do we localize sound ? How do we keep our body temperature so nice and constant ? How do we survive the sauna at 90 C ? Why do large raindrops fall faster than small ones, and what exactly is their speed ? The answers are given in an accessible and playful way, and are illustrated with funny cartoons. In this book forty "Physics in Daily Life" columns, which appeared earlier in Europhysics News, are brought together in one inspiring volume. As well as being a source of enjoyment and satisfying insights for anyone with some physics background, it also serves as a very good teaching tool for science students. This booklet is a feast of erudition and humour.

  18. Evaluation of spatial correlations of dynamically downscaled rainfall data for eastern Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parana Manage, Nadeeka; Lockart, Natalie; Willgoose, Garry; Kuczera, George; Kiem, Anthony; Kamal Chowdhury, A. F. M.

    2016-04-01

    As part of the Eastern Seaboard Climate Change Initiative (ESCCI) - East Coast Low project, we assess three high resolution dynamically downscaled regional climate model datasets simulated by the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model over the east coast of Australia. The datasets have been produced by the NARCliM (NSW/ACT Regional Climate Modelling) project at 10km resolution spanning a 60-year period (1950-2010) and driven by the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. In the analysis, the RCM simulated data was first examined considering the possible spatial reduction of the point rainfall intensity occurs when transforming point rainfall to areal average rainfall at the pixel level. The ability of RCM simulated data to reproduce the observed spatial correlations was assessed using two data sets: 1) point rainfall data for selected Bureau of Meteorology daily rainfall stations within the study area and 2) the Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP) gridded (0.05° ×0.05°, 5km x 5km) daily rainfall dataset. The standard deviation of the RCM time series is less than the standard deviation of the observed rainfall even when allowing for the differences between point scale observed data and pixel averaged RCM data. The spatial pattern of the RCM correlations was qualitatively similar to that of the observed data. A topographic influence in the spatial correlations was also found. We studied the spatial correlation structure of both the RCM data and the observed raingauge data. The RCM correlation function was about 15-20% higher than the observed data for all separations from 10km to 200km.

  19. A Bayesian beta distribution model for estimating rainfall IDF curves in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Carlos H. R.; Kwon, Hyun-Han; Kim, Jin-Young

    2016-09-01

    The estimation of intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves for rainfall data comprises a classical task in hydrology studies to support a variety of water resources projects, including urban drainage and the design of flood control structures. In a changing climate, however, traditional approaches based on historical records of rainfall and on the stationary assumption can be inadequate and lead to poor estimates of rainfall intensity quantiles. Climate change scenarios built on General Circulation Models offer a way to access and estimate future changes in spatial and temporal rainfall patterns at the daily scale at the utmost, which is not as fine temporal resolution as required (e.g. hours) to directly estimate IDF curves. In this paper we propose a novel methodology based on a four-parameter beta distribution to estimate IDF curves conditioned on the observed (or simulated) daily rainfall, which becomes the time-varying upper bound of the updated nonstationary beta distribution. The inference is conducted in a Bayesian framework that provides a better way to take into account the uncertainty in the model parameters when building the IDF curves. The proposed model is tested using rainfall data from four stations located in South Korea and projected climate change Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios 6 and 8.5 from the Met Office Hadley Centre HadGEM3-RA model. The results show that the developed model fits the historical data as good as the traditional Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution but is able to produce future IDF curves that significantly differ from the historically based IDF curves. The proposed model predicts for the stations and RCPs scenarios analysed in this work an increase in the intensity of extreme rainfalls of short duration with long return periods.

  20. Long-Term Historical Rainfall-Runoff Modeling Using High-Resolution Satellite-based Precipitation Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashouri, H.; Nguyen, P.; Thorstensen, A. R.; Hsu, K. L.; Sorooshian, S.

    2014-12-01

    This study evaluates the performance of a newly developed long-term high-resolution satellite-based precipitation products, named Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Network - Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR), in hydrological modeling. PERSIANN-CDR estimations are biased corrected using GPCP monthly climatology data. PERSIANN-CDR provides daily rainfall estimates at 0.25° x 0.25° grid boxes for 1983-2014 (delayed present). This newly released product makes it feasible to model the streamflow over the past 30 years. Three test basins from the Distributed Hydrologic Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 2 (DMIP 2) are chosen. Comparing with other satellite products, the Version 7 TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) product is used. Stage IV radar data is used as a reference data for evaluating the PERSIANN-CDR and TMPA precipitation data. All products are scaled to 0.25° and daily spatiotemporal resolution. The study is performed in two phases. In the first phase, the 2003-2011 period where all the products are available is chosen. Precipitation evaluation results, presented on Taylor Diagrams, show that TMPA and PERSIANN-CDR have close performances. The National Weather Service (NWS) Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD) Hydrology Laboratory-Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM) is then forced with the PERSIANN-CDR and the TMPA precipitation products, as well as the stage IV radar data. USGS Streamflow observations at the outlet of the basins are used as the reference streamflow data. The results show that in general, in all the three DMIP 2 basins the simulated hydrographs forced with PERSIANN-CDR and TMPA show good agreement, as the statistical measures such as root mean square error, bias, and correlation coefficient are close. In addition, with respect to the streamflow peaks, PERSIANN-CDR shows better performance than Stage IV radar data in capturing the extreme streamflow magnitudes

  1. Evidence of Fire-Induced Rainfall Modification in sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saha, M.; Scanlon, T. M.; D'Odorico, P.

    2015-12-01

    Recent studies have highlighted the importance of the land surface in promoting or inhibiting convective development and precipitation. At the same time, fire represents a dramatic, instantaneous shift in energy and mass fluxes at the surface. We examine the role that fires play in modifying subsequent precipitation on seasonal timescales across sub-Saharan Africa. Using MODIS burned area product and TRMM daily precipitation we find that fire suppresses total wet season accumulated rainfall in arid and semiarid regions. In the regions receiving less than 500 mm of mean annual precipitation (MAP) this suppression amounts to deficits of up to 30% of MAP. This observed pattern is consistent between drylands in both hemispheres. We consider the possible mechanisms of fire-induced rainfall suppression, including changes in albedo and reduced evapotranspiration. We propose a novel feedback between rainfall and fire that is manifested by an oscillation between low rainfall and high rainfall years. Observational evidence supports this hypothesis. Finally, using MODIS land cover data we find that the regions where we observe fire-induced rainfall suppression are comprised of a higher than expected proportion of croplands and cropland mosaic. We highlight the possibility of a novel anthropogenic influence on hydrologic cycling in regions where water resources are scarce.

  2. Evaluation of global rainfall Measurement for Hydrological Applications in West Africa : sensitivity tests in Benin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viarre, J.; Gosset, M.; Peugeot, C.

    2011-12-01

    We carried out an evaluation of currently available -real time or post-calibrated- rainfall products in West Africa. The work is oriented towards highlighting their skills and relevance from the view point of a hydrological end-user. The study is based on the densily instrumented meso-scale basins from the AMMA-CATCH hydrometeorological observing system. On these sites long term observations of the various term of the continental water budget and hydrological processes studies have been carried out for more than a decade. We focus here on the upper Oueme basin site in Benin (Sudanese climate - 1200 mm annual rainfall). A distributed hydrological model, developed in this framework is used to illustrate the effects of satellite based rainfall errors or uncertainty on the simulated outflow. Non linearities cause the rainfall bias to be enhanced through propagation in the model, leading to strong biases in the outflow. In addition to the biases the model response is very sensitive to the distortion in the rainfall intensities probability distribution, that some rainfall products exhibit. The AMMA-CATCH densified gages networks and hydrometeorological measurements will be integrated in the MeghaTropiques ground validation plan and used to asses the quality of MT products at the one degree one daily scale and below.

  3. Rainfall and temperatures during the 1991/92 drought in the Kruger National Park

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Zambatis

    1995-09-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall and temperatures during the 1991/92 drought, the severest in the recorded history of the Kruger National Park (KNP, are described. Mean total rainfall for the KNP was 235.6 mm (44.1 of the long- term mean, with a median of 239.9 mm. The num- ber of days on which rain occurred also decreased significantly from a mean annual total of 48.3 to a mean of 24.2 in 1991/92. Daily maximum, minimum and average temperatures for some months increased significantly, as did the number of days within certain maximum temperature range classes.

  4. Application of SDSM and LARS-WG for simulating and downscaling of rainfall and temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassan, Zulkarnain; Shamsudin, Supiah; Harun, Sobri

    2014-04-01

    Climate change is believed to have significant impacts on the water basin and region, such as in a runoff and hydrological system. However, impact studies on the water basin and region are difficult, since general circulation models (GCMs), which are widely used to simulate future climate scenarios, do not provide reliable hours of daily series rainfall and temperature for hydrological modeling. There is a technique named as "downscaling techniques", which can derive reliable hour of daily series rainfall and temperature due to climate scenarios from the GCMs output. In this study, statistical downscaling models are used to generate the possible future values of local meteorological variables such as rainfall and temperature in the selected stations in Peninsular of Malaysia. The models are: (1) statistical downscaling model (SDSM) that utilized the regression models and stochastic weather generators and (2) Long Ashton research station weather generator (LARS-WG) that only utilized the stochastic weather generators. The LARS-WG and SDSM models obviously are feasible methods to be used as tools in quantifying effects of climate change condition in a local scale. SDSM yields a better performance compared to LARS-WG, except SDSM is slightly underestimated for the wet and dry spell lengths. Although both models do not provide identical results, the time series generated by both methods indicate a general increasing trend in the mean daily temperature values. Meanwhile, the trend of the daily rainfall is not similar to each other, with SDSM giving a relatively higher change of annual rainfall compared to LARS-WG.

  5. An Analysis of Thermally-Related Surface Rainfall Budgets Associated with Convective and Stratiform Rainfall

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHOU Yushu; Xiaofan LI

    2011-01-01

    Both water vapor and heat processes play key roles in producing surface rainfall.While the water vapor effects of sea surface temperature and cloud radiative and microphysical processes on surface rainfall have been investigated in previous studies,the thermal effects on rainfall are analyzed in this study using a series of two-dimensional equilibrium cloud-resolving model experiments forced by zonally-uniform,constant,large-scale zonal wind and zero large-scale vertical velocity.The analysis of thermally-related surface rainfall budget reveals that the model domain mean surface rain rate is primarily associated with the mean infrared cooling rate.Convective rainfall and transport of hydrometeor concentration from convective regions to raining stratiform regions corresponds to the heat divergence over convective regions,whereas stratiform rainfall corresponds to the transport of hydrometeor concentration from convective regions and heat divergence over raining stratiform regions.The heat divergence over convective regions is mainly balanced by the heat convergence over rainfall-free regions,which is,in turn,offset by the radiative cooling over rainfall-free regions.The sensitivity experiments of rainfall to the effects of sea surface temperature and cloud radiative and microphysical processes show that the sea surface temperature and cloud processes affect convective rainfall through the changes in infrared cooling rate over rainfall-free regions and transport rate of heat from convective regions to rainfall-free regions.

  6. Universal Power Law for Relationship between Rainfall Kinetic Energy and Rainfall Intensity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seung Sook Shin

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall kinetic energy has been linked to linear, exponential, logarithmic, and power-law functions using rainfall intensity as an independent variable. The power law is the most suitable mathematical expression used to relate rainfall kinetic energy and rainfall intensity. In evaluating the rainfall kinetic energy, the empirical power laws have shown a larger deviation than other functions. In this study, universal power law between rainfall kinetic energy and rainfall intensity was proposed based on the rainfall power theory under an ideal assumption that drop-size is uniformly distributed in constant rainfall intensity. An exponent of the proposed power law was 11/9 and coefficient was estimated at 10.3 from the empirical equations of the existing power-law relation. The rainfall kinetic energy calculated by universal power law showed >95% concordance rate in comparison to the average values calculated from exponential and logarithmic functions used in soil erosion model such as USLE, RUSLE, EUROSEM, and SEMMA and <5% relative difference as compared to the average rainfall kinetic energies calculated by other empirical functions. Therefore, it is expected that power law of ideal assumption may be utilized as a universal power law in evaluating rainfall kinetic energy.

  7. Downscaling approach to develop future sub-daily IDF relations for Canberra Airport Region, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herath, H. M. S. M.; Sarukkalige, P. R.; Nguyen, V. T. V.

    2015-06-01

    Downscaling of climate projections is the most adopted method to assess the impacts of climate change at regional and local scale. In the last decade, downscaling techniques which provide reasonable improvement to resolution of General Circulation Models' (GCMs) output are developed in notable manner. Most of these techniques are limited to spatial downscaling of GCMs' output and still there is a high demand to develop temporal downscaling approaches. As the main objective of this study, combined approach of spatial and temporal downscaling is developed to improve the resolution of rainfall predicted by GCMs. Canberra airport region is subjected to this study and the applicability of proposed downscaling approach is evaluated for Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and Darwin regions. Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) is used to spatial downscaling and numerical model based on scaling invariant concept is used to temporal downscaling of rainfalls. National Centre of Environmental Prediction (NCEP) data is used in SDSM model calibration and validation. Regression based bias correction function is used to improve the accuracy of downscaled annual maximum rainfalls using HadCM3-A2. By analysing the non-central moments of observed rainfalls, single time regime (from 30 min to 24 h) is identified which exist scaling behaviour and it is used to estimate the sub daily extreme rainfall depths from daily downscaled rainfalls. Finally, as the major output of this study, Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relations are developed for the future periods of 2020s, 2050s and 2080s in the context of climate change.

  8. Towards large scale stochastic rainfall models for flood risk assessment in trans-national basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serinaldi, F.; Kilsby, C. G.

    2012-04-01

    and Shape (GAMLSS). This approach allows exploiting climate variables to improve the simulation of the spatio-temporal rainfall structure through dynamically varying marginal and joint distributions. The preliminary results of the spatio-temporal analysis and modelling of a large data set of daily rainfall time series from 15 countries in the Central Eastern Europe are shown. Finally, indications are given of how the model outputs will be used with rainfall runoff models for estimating collective flood risk across the Danube basin.

  9. Validation of satellite rainfall products over Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feidas, H.

    2010-01-01

    Six widely available satellite precipitation products were extensively validated and intercompared on monthly-to-seasonal timescales and various spatial scales, for the period 1998-2006, using a dense station network over Greece. Satellite products were divided into three groups according to their spatial resolution. The first group had high spatial (0.5°) resolution and consists only of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) products: the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) precipitation product (3A12) and the TRMM multisatellite precipitation analysis products (3B42 and 3B43). The second group comprised products with medium spatial (1°) resolution. These products included the TRMM 3B42 and 3B43 estimates (remapped to 1° resolution) and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project one-degree daily (GPCP-1DD) analysis. The third group consisted of low spatial (2.5°) resolution products and included the 3B43 product (remapped to 2.5° resolution), the GPCP Satellite and Gauge (GPCP-SG) product, and the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center (NOAA-CPC) Merged Analysis (CMAP). Rain gauge data were first gridded and then compared with monthly and seasonal precipitation totals as well as with long-term averages of the six satellite products at different spatial resolutions (2.5°, 1°, and 0.5°). The results demonstrated the excellent performance of the 3B43 product over Greece in all three spatial scales. 3B42 from the first and second group and CMAP from the third exhibited a reasonable skill.

  10. Diagnosing links between atmospheric moisture and extreme daily precipitation over the UK

    OpenAIRE

    Richard P Allan; Lavers, David A.; Champion, Adrian J.

    2016-01-01

    Atmospheric moisture characteristics associated with the heaviest 1% of daily rainfall events affecting regions of the British Isles are analysed over the period 1997–2008. A blended satellite/rain-gauge data set (GPCP-1DD) and regionally averaged daily rain-gauge observations (HadUKP) are combined with the ERA Interim reanalysis. These are compared with simulations from the HadGEM2-A climate model which applied observed sea surface temperature and realistic radiative forcings. Median extreme...

  11. Assessing the sources of uncertainty associated with the calculation of rainfall kinetic energy and the erosivity R factor. Application to the Upper Llobregat Basin, NE Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Latron

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The sources of uncertainty associated with the calculation of rainfall kinetic energy and rainfall erosivity were investigated when the USLE R factor was operationally calculated for a mountainous river basin (504 km2 in the Southeastern Pyrenees. Rainfall kinetic energy was first obtained at the scale of the rainfall event by means of sub-hourly precipitation tipping-bucket rain gauge records and updates of the Kinnell (1981 equation. Annual erosivity values for the nearby pluviometric stations were then derived from the linear regressions between daily rainfall erosivity and daily precipitation, obtained for two different seasons. Finally, maps for rainfall erosivity estimates were obtained from the station values with Thiessen polygons. The sources of uncertainty analysed were i the tipping-bucket instrumental errors, ii the efficiency of the Kinnell (1981 equation, iii the efficiency of the regressions between daily precipitation and kinetic energy, iv the temporal variability of annual rainfall erosivity values, and the spatial variability of v annual rainfall erosivity values and vi long-term R factor values. The results showed that the uncertainty associated with the calculation of rainfall kinetic energy from rainfall intensity at the event and station scales is highly relevant and must be taken into account for experimental or modelling purposes; for longer temporal scales, the relevance of this source of uncertainty remains high if there is a low variability of the types of rain. Temporal variability of precipitation at wider spatial scales is the main source of uncertainty when rainfall erosivity is to be calculated on an annual basis, whereas the uncertainty associated with the long-term R factor is rather low and less important than the uncertainty associated with the other RUSLE factors when operationally used for long-term soil erosion modelling.

  12. Soil as a natural rain gauge: Estimating global rainfall from satellite soil moisture data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brocca, Luca; Ciabatta, Luca; Massari, Christian; Moramarco, Tommaso; Hahn, Sebastian; Hasenauer, Stefan; Kidd, Richard; Dorigo, Wouter; Wagner, Wolfgang; Levizzani, Vincenzo

    2014-05-01

    Measuring precipitation intensity is not straightforward; and over many areas, ground observations are lacking and satellite observations are used to fill this gap. The most common way of retrieving rainfall is by addressing the problem "top-down" by inverting the atmospheric signals reflected or radiated by atmospheric hydrometeors. However, most applications are interested in how much water reaches the ground, a problem that is notoriously difficult to solve from a top-down perspective. In this study, a novel "bottom-up" approach is proposed that, by doing "hydrology backward," uses variations in soil moisture (SM) sensed by microwave satellite sensors to infer preceding rainfall amounts. In other words, the soil is used as a natural rain gauge. Three different satellite SM data sets from the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT), the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E), and the Microwave Imaging Radiometer with Aperture Synthesis are used to obtain three new daily global rainfall products. The "First Guess Daily" product of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) is employed as main benchmark in the validation period 2010-2011 for determining the continuous and categorical performance of the SM-derived rainfall products by considering the 5 day accumulated values. The real-time version of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis product, i.e., the TRMM-3B42RT, is adopted as a state-of-the-art satellite rainfall product. The SM-derived rainfall products show good Pearson correlation values (R) with the GPCC data set, mainly in areas where SM retrievals are found to be accurate. The global median R values (in the latitude band ±50°) are equal to 0.54, 0.28, and 0.31 for ASCAT-, AMSR-E-, and SMOS-derived products, respectively. For comparison, the median R for the TRMM-3B42RT product is equal to 0.53. Interestingly, the SM-derived products are found to outperform TRMM-3B42RT in terms of average global

  13. Evaluation of Bias Correction Method for Satellite-Based Rainfall Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haris Akram Bhatti

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available With the advances in remote sensing technology, satellite-based rainfall estimates are gaining attraction in the field of hydrology, particularly in rainfall-runoff modeling. Since estimates are affected by errors correction is required. In this study, we tested the high resolution National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA Climate Prediction Centre (CPC morphing technique (CMORPH satellite rainfall product (CMORPH in the Gilgel Abbey catchment, Ethiopia. CMORPH data at 8 km-30 min resolution is aggregated to daily to match in-situ observations for the period 2003–2010. Study objectives are to assess bias of the satellite estimates, to identify optimum window size for application of bias correction and to test effectiveness of bias correction. Bias correction factors are calculated for moving window (MW sizes and for sequential windows (SW’s of 3, 5, 7, 9, …, 31 days with the aim to assess error distribution between the in-situ observations and CMORPH estimates. We tested forward, central and backward window (FW, CW and BW schemes to assess the effect of time integration on accumulated rainfall. Accuracy of cumulative rainfall depth is assessed by Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE. To systematically correct all CMORPH estimates, station based bias factors are spatially interpolated to yield a bias factor map. Reliability of interpolation is assessed by cross validation. The uncorrected CMORPH rainfall images are multiplied by the interpolated bias map to result in bias corrected CMORPH estimates. Findings are evaluated by RMSE, correlation coefficient (r and standard deviation (SD. Results showed existence of bias in the CMORPH rainfall. It is found that the 7 days SW approach performs best for bias correction of CMORPH rainfall. The outcome of this study showed the efficiency of our bias correction approach.

  14. Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) rainfall curves, for data series and climate projection in African cities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Paola, Francesco; Giugni, Maurizio; Topa, Maria Elena; Bucchignani, Edoardo

    2014-01-01

    Changes in the hydrologic cycle due to increase in greenhouse gases cause variations in intensity, duration, and frequency of precipitation events. Quantifying the potential effects of climate change and adapting to them is one way to reduce urban vulnerability. Since rainfall characteristics are often used to design water structures, reviewing and updating rainfall characteristics (i.e., Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves) for future climate scenarios is necessary (Reg Environ Change 13(1 Supplement):25-33, 2013). The present study regards the evaluation of the IDF curves for three case studies: Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), Dar Es Salaam (Tanzania) and Douala (Cameroon). Starting from daily rainfall observed data, to define the IDF curves and the extreme values in a smaller time window (10', 30', 1 h, 3 h, 6 h, 12 h), disaggregation techniques of the collected data have been used, in order to generate a synthetic sequence of rainfall, with statistical properties similar to the recorded data. Then, the rainfall pattern of the three test cities was analyzed and IDF curves were evaluated. In order to estimate the contingent influence of climate change on the IDF curves, the described procedure was applied to the climate (rainfall) simulations over the time period 2010-2050, provided by CMCC (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici). The evaluation of the IDF curves allowed to frame the rainfall evolution of the three case studies, considering initially only historical data, then taking into account the climate projections, in order to verify the changes in rainfall patterns. The same set of data and projections was also used for evaluating the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP).

  15. Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Implications of Contrasting Trends in the Spatial Variability of Means and Extremes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Subimal Ghosh

    Full Text Available India's agricultural output, economy, and societal well-being are strappingly dependent on the stability of summer monsoon rainfall, its variability and extremes. Spatial aggregate of intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events over Central India are significantly increasing, while at local scale they are spatially non-uniform with increasing spatial variability. The reasons behind such increase in spatial variability of extremes are poorly understood and the trends in mean monsoon rainfall have been greatly overlooked. Here, by using multi-decadal gridded daily rainfall data over entire India, we show that the trend in spatial variability of mean monsoon rainfall is decreasing as exactly opposite to that of extremes. The spatial variability of extremes is attributed to the spatial variability of the convective rainfall component. Contrarily, the decrease in spatial variability of the mean rainfall over India poses a pertinent research question on the applicability of large scale inter-basin water transfer by river inter-linking to address the spatial variability of available water in India. We found a significant decrease in the monsoon rainfall over major water surplus river basins in India. Hydrological simulations using a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC model also revealed that the water yield in surplus river basins is decreasing but it is increasing in deficit basins. These findings contradict the traditional notion of dry areas becoming drier and wet areas becoming wetter in response to climate change in India. This result also calls for a re-evaluation of planning for river inter-linking to supply water from surplus to deficit river basins.

  16. Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Implications of Contrasting Trends in the Spatial Variability of Means and Extremes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Subimal; Vittal, H; Sharma, Tarul; Karmakar, Subhankar; Kasiviswanathan, K S; Dhanesh, Y; Sudheer, K P; Gunthe, S S

    2016-01-01

    India's agricultural output, economy, and societal well-being are strappingly dependent on the stability of summer monsoon rainfall, its variability and extremes. Spatial aggregate of intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events over Central India are significantly increasing, while at local scale they are spatially non-uniform with increasing spatial variability. The reasons behind such increase in spatial variability of extremes are poorly understood and the trends in mean monsoon rainfall have been greatly overlooked. Here, by using multi-decadal gridded daily rainfall data over entire India, we show that the trend in spatial variability of mean monsoon rainfall is decreasing as exactly opposite to that of extremes. The spatial variability of extremes is attributed to the spatial variability of the convective rainfall component. Contrarily, the decrease in spatial variability of the mean rainfall over India poses a pertinent research question on the applicability of large scale inter-basin water transfer by river inter-linking to address the spatial variability of available water in India. We found a significant decrease in the monsoon rainfall over major water surplus river basins in India. Hydrological simulations using a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model also revealed that the water yield in surplus river basins is decreasing but it is increasing in deficit basins. These findings contradict the traditional notion of dry areas becoming drier and wet areas becoming wetter in response to climate change in India. This result also calls for a re-evaluation of planning for river inter-linking to supply water from surplus to deficit river basins.

  17. Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Implications of Contrasting Trends in the Spatial Variability of Means and Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Subimal; Vittal, H.; Sharma, Tarul; Karmakar, Subhankar; Kasiviswanathan, K. S.; Dhanesh, Y.; Sudheer, K. P.; Gunthe, S. S.

    2016-01-01

    India’s agricultural output, economy, and societal well-being are strappingly dependent on the stability of summer monsoon rainfall, its variability and extremes. Spatial aggregate of intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events over Central India are significantly increasing, while at local scale they are spatially non-uniform with increasing spatial variability. The reasons behind such increase in spatial variability of extremes are poorly understood and the trends in mean monsoon rainfall have been greatly overlooked. Here, by using multi-decadal gridded daily rainfall data over entire India, we show that the trend in spatial variability of mean monsoon rainfall is decreasing as exactly opposite to that of extremes. The spatial variability of extremes is attributed to the spatial variability of the convective rainfall component. Contrarily, the decrease in spatial variability of the mean rainfall over India poses a pertinent research question on the applicability of large scale inter-basin water transfer by river inter-linking to address the spatial variability of available water in India. We found a significant decrease in the monsoon rainfall over major water surplus river basins in India. Hydrological simulations using a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model also revealed that the water yield in surplus river basins is decreasing but it is increasing in deficit basins. These findings contradict the traditional notion of dry areas becoming drier and wet areas becoming wetter in response to climate change in India. This result also calls for a re-evaluation of planning for river inter-linking to supply water from surplus to deficit river basins. PMID:27463092

  18. A statistical technique for defining rainfall forecast probabilities in southern Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Husak, G. J.; Magadzire, T.

    2010-12-01

    Probabilistic forecasts are currently produced by many climate centers and by just as many processes. These models use a number of inputs to generate the probability of rainfall falling in the lower/middle/upper tercile (frequently termed “below-normal”/”normal”/”above-normal”) of the historical rainfall distribution. Generation of forecasts for a season may be the result of a dynamic climate model, a statistical model, a consensus of a panel of experts, or a combination of some of the afore-mentioned techniques, among others. This last method is one most commonly accepted in Southern Africa, resulting from the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF). While it has been noted that there is a reasonable chance of polygons having a dominant tercile of 60% probability or more, this has seldom been the case. Indeed, over the last four years, the SARCOF process has not produced any polygons with such a likelihood. In fact, the terciles in all of the SARCOFs since 2007 have been some combination of 40%, 35% and 25%. Discussions with SARCOF scientists suggests that the SARCOF process is currently using the probabilistic format to define relatively qualitative, rank-ordered outcomes in the format “most-likely”, “second-most likely” and “least likely” terciles. While this rank-ordered classification has its merits, it limits the sort of downstream quantitative statistical analysis that could potentially be of assistance to various decision makers. In this study we build a simple statistical model to analyze the probabilistic outcomes for the coming rainfall season, and analyze their resulting probabilities. The prediction model takes a similar approach to that already used in the SARCOF process: namely, using available historic rainfall data and SST information to create a linear regression between rainfall and SSTs, define a likely rainfall outcome, and analyze the cross-validation errors over the most recent 30 years. The cross

  19. A fuzzy-autoregressive model of daily river flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greco, Roberto

    2012-06-01

    A model for the identification of daily river flows has been developed, consisting of the combination of an autoregressive model with a fuzzy inference system. The AR model is devoted to the identification of base flow, supposed to be described by linear laws. The fuzzy model identifies the surface runoff, by applying a small set of linguistic statements, deriving from the knowledge of the physical features of the nonlinear rainfall-runoff transformation, to the inflow entering the river basin. The model has been applied to the identification of the daily flow series of river Volturno at Cancello-Arnone (Southern Italy), with a drainage basin of around 5560 km2, observed between 1970 and 1974. The inflow was estimated on the basis of daily precipitations registered during the same years at six rain gauges located throughout the basin. The first two years were used for model training, the remaining three for the validation. The obtained results show that the proposed model provides good predictions of either low river flows or high floods, although the analysis of residuals, which do not turn out to be a white noise, indicates that the cause and effect relationship between rainfall and runoff is not completely identified by the model.

  20. 30 years of "International Journal of Behavioral Development": Thematic orientation, internationality and impact of publications since its inception - A bibliometric study

    OpenAIRE

    Schui, Gabriel; Krampen, Günter

    2008-01-01

    Inspired by the 1990 analysis by Schoepflin and Müller-Brettel, the scientific Output of the International Journal of Behavioral Development is bibliometrically traced for the past 30 years. Bibliometric data was collected using the PsyclNFO and Social Science Citation Index (SSCI) databases. The fields APA-thesarus descriptors, classification code, age group (all PsyclNFO), country, and number of citations (all SSCI) were used. Information on author affiliations was obtained online from the ...

  1. The Impacts of Wind Speed Trends and 30-Year Variability in Relation to Hydroelectric Reservoir Inflows on Wind Power in the Pacific Northwest

    OpenAIRE

    Cross, Benjamin D.; Karen E Kohfeld; Joseph Bailey; Cooper, Andrew B.

    2015-01-01

    In hydroelectric dominated systems, the value and benefits of energy are higher during extended dry periods and lower during extended or extreme wet periods. By accounting for regional and temporal differences in the relationship between wind speed and reservoir inflow behavior during wind farm site selection, the benefits of energy diversification can be maximized. The goal of this work was to help maximize the value of wind power by quantifying the long-term (30-year) relationships between ...

  2. THE EVOLUTION OF THE SEWAGE TREATMENT PROCESS IN ROMANIA IN THE LAST 30 YEARS: CASE STUDY RÂMNICU VÂLCEA

    OpenAIRE

    L. BOTEA

    2012-01-01

    The evolution of the sewage treatment process in Romania in the last 30 years: case study Râmnicu Vâlcea. Most studies made at national level in the domain of hydrology target the surface water topic, analyzing the hydrometric and hydrologic characteristics and the quality of the water for certain catchment areas. This paper aims instead the relatively new field of urban hydrology, more exactly the urban wastewater treatment process. The study is based on the observations made in the fi...

  3. Chernobyl - 30 years thereafter. Has radiation protection in Switzerland been improved for the handling of emergency situations and the long-term consequences?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    30 years ago the Chernobyl reactor accident has surprised the whole world. It was shown that severe nuclear accidents contaminating large areas for a long time are possible. At this time each state was overstrained and unable to cope with the situation. Switzerland was oscillating between the French disregard and the German psychosis resulting in chaotic communication increased by incoherency and missing consultation with the neighboring countries.

  4. Improvement of rainfall and flood forecasts by blending ensemble NWP rainfall with radar prediction considering orographic rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Wansik; Nakakita, Eiichi; Kim, Sunmin; Yamaguchi, Kosei

    2015-12-01

    Many basins in Japan are characterized by steep mountainous regions, generating orographic rainfall events. Orographic rainfall may cause localized heavy rainfall to induce flash floods and sediment disasters. However, the accuracy of radar-based rainfall prediction was not enough because of the complex geographical pattern of the mountainous areas. In order to reduce damage due to localized heavy rainfall, characteristics of orographic rainfall must be identified into a short-term rainfall prediction procedure. The accuracy of radar-based rainfall prediction performs best for very short lead time, however the accuracy of radar prediction rapidly decreases with increasing lead times. At longer lead times, higher accuracy QPFs are produced by Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, which solve the dynamics and physics of the atmosphere. This study proposes hybrid blending system of ensemble information from radar-based prediction and numerical weather prediction (NWP) to improve the accuracy of rainfall and flood forecasting. First, an improved radar image extrapolation method, which is comprised of the orographic rainfall identification and the error ensemble scheme, is introduced. Then, ensemble NWP outputs are updated based on mean bias of the error fields considering error structure. Finally, the improved radar-based prediction and updated NWP rainfall considering bias correction are blended dynamically with changing weight functions, which are computed from the expected skill of each radar prediction and updated NWP rainfall. The proposed method is verified temporally and spatially through a target event and is applied to the hybrid flood forecasting for updating with 1 h intervals. The newly proposed method shows sufficient reproducibility in peak discharge value, and could reduce the width of ensemble spread, which is expressed as the uncertainty, in the flood forecasting. Our study is carried out and verified using the largest flood event by typhoon

  5. Runoff and leaching of metolachlor from Mississippi River alluvial soil during seasons of average and below-average rainfall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Southwick, Lloyd M; Appelboom, Timothy W; Fouss, James L

    2009-02-25

    The movement of the herbicide metolachlor [2-chloro-N-(2-ethyl-6-methylphenyl)-N-(2-methoxy-1-methylethyl)acetamide] via runoff and leaching from 0.21 ha plots planted to corn on Mississippi River alluvial soil (Commerce silt loam) was measured for a 6-year period, 1995-2000. The first three years received normal rainfall (30 year average); the second three years experienced reduced rainfall. The 4-month periods prior to application plus the following 4 months after application were characterized by 1039 +/- 148 mm of rainfall for 1995-1997 and by 674 +/- 108 mm for 1998-2000. During the normal rainfall years 216 +/- 150 mm of runoff occurred during the study seasons (4 months following herbicide application), accompanied by 76.9 +/- 38.9 mm of leachate. For the low-rainfall years these amounts were 16.2 +/- 18.2 mm of runoff (92% less than the normal years) and 45.1 +/- 25.5 mm of leachate (41% less than the normal seasons). Runoff of metolachlor during the normal-rainfall seasons was 4.5-6.1% of application, whereas leaching was 0.10-0.18%. For the below-normal periods, these losses were 0.07-0.37% of application in runoff and 0.22-0.27% in leachate. When averages over the three normal and the three less-than-normal seasons were taken, a 35% reduction in rainfall was characterized by a 97% reduction in runoff loss and a 71% increase in leachate loss of metolachlor on a percent of application basis. The data indicate an increase in preferential flow in the leaching movement of metolachlor from the surface soil layer during the reduced rainfall periods. Even with increased preferential flow through the soil during the below-average rainfall seasons, leachate loss (percent of application) of the herbicide remained below 0.3%. Compared to the average rainfall seasons of 1995-1997, the below-normal seasons of 1998-2000 were characterized by a 79% reduction in total runoff and leachate flow and by a 93% reduction in corresponding metolachlor movement via these routes

  6. Assessment of satellite rainfall products over the Andean plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satgé, Frédéric; Bonnet, Marie-Paule; Gosset, Marielle; Molina, Jorge; Hernan Yuque Lima, Wilson; Pillco Zolá, Ramiro; Timouk, Franck; Garnier, Jérémie

    2016-01-01

    Nine satellite rainfall estimations (SREs) were evaluated for the first time over the South American Andean plateau watershed by comparison with rain gauge data acquired between 2005 and 2007. The comparisons were carried out at the annual, monthly and daily time steps. All SREs reproduce the salient pattern of the annual rain field, with a marked north-south gradient and a lighter east-west gradient. However, the intensity of the gradient differs among SREs: it is well marked in the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis 3B42 (TMPA-3B42), Precipitation Estimation from remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) and Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) products, and it is smoothed out in the Climate prediction center MORPHing (CMORPH) products. Another interesting difference among products is the contrast in rainfall amounts between the water surfaces (Lake Titicaca) and the surrounding land. Some products (TMPA-3B42, PERSIANN and GSMaP) show a contradictory rainfall deficit over Lake Titicaca, which may be due to the emissivity contrast between the lake and the surrounding lands and warm rain cloud processes. An analysis differentiating coastal Lake Titicaca from inland pixels confirmed this trend. The raw or Real Time (RT) products have strong biases over the study region. These biases are strongly positive for PERSIANN (above 90%), moderately positive for TMPA-3B42 (28%), strongly negative for CMORPH (- 42%) and moderately negative for GSMaP (- 18%). The biases are associated with a deformation of the rain rate frequency distribution: GSMaP underestimates the proportion of rainfall events for all rain rates; CMORPH overestimates the proportion of rain rates below 2 mm day- 1; and the other products tend to overestimate the proportion of moderate to high rain rates. These biases are greatly reduced by the gauge adjustment in the TMPA-3B42, PERSIANN and CMORPH products, whereas a

  7. STUDY OF PREVALENCE OF DIABETES MELLITUS TYPE - 2 AND IMPAIRED GLUCOSE TOLERANCE AMONG ADULTS 30 YEARS ABOVE IN AN URBAN FIELD PRACTICE AREA OF KATIHAR MEDICAL COLLEGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahid

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES : 1 To determine the prevalence of diabetes mellitus Type - 2 in an urban population of age 30 year and above 2 To determine the prevalence of impaired an urban population of age 30 years and above 3 To study the association of various risk factors with diabe tes mellitus Type - 2 and Implored Glucose Tolerance. METHODOLOGY : A community based cross section study will be carried out in population 30 years above at Sharifganj with District Katihar Bihar during January 2013 - June 2013. Population approximately 5000 i s an urban field practice area of Katihar Medical College Katihar , during the six months study period. Fasting Blood Sugar (FBS was estimated to identify the diabetes and the Impaired Glucose Tolerance (IGT. Information from the study population was collected through pre tested questionnaire using several anthropometric measurements. RESULT : All of the 910 subjects examined far fasting blood glucose after overnight fast. FBS was detected by using standardized Glucometer (Accu - Check 32 cases were detected as Diabetic or having Impaired Glucose Tolerance (ITG prevalence of diabetes and IGT was higher among urban and is increasing with increase in age. Several long and short team steps should be taken for promotion of healthy life style modifications to present diabetes and emergence of its complications.

  8. Assessment of probabilistic areal reduction factors of precipitations for the entire French territory with gridded rainfall data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fouchier, Catherine; Maire, Alexis; Arnaud, Patrick; Cantet, Philippe; Odry, Jean

    2016-04-01

    The starting point of our study was the availability of maps of rainfall quantiles available for the entire French mainland territory at the spatial resolution of 1 km². These maps display the rainfall amounts estimated for different rainfall durations (from 15 minutes to 72 hours) and different return periods (from 2 years up to 1 000 years). They are provided by a regionalized stochastic hourly point rainfall generator, the SHYREG method which was previously developed by Irstea (Arnaud et al., 2007; Cantet and Arnaud, 2014). Being calibrated independently on numerous raingauges data (with an average density across the country of 1 raingauge per 200 km²), this method suffers from a limitation common to point-process rainfall generators: it can only reproduce point rainfall patterns and has no capacity to generate rainfall fields. It can't hence provide areal rainfall quantiles, the estimation of the latter being however needed for the construction of design rainfall or for the diagnostic of observed events. One means of bridging this gap between our local rainfall quantiles and areal rainfall quantiles is given by the concept of probabilistic areal reduction factors of rainfall (ARF) as defined by Omolayo (1993). This concept enables to estimate areal rainfall of a particular frequency within a certain amount of time from point rainfalls of the same frequency and duration. Assessing such ARF for the whole French territory is of particular interest since it should allow us to compute areal rainfall quantiles, and eventually watershed rainfall quantiles, by using the already available grids of statistical point rainfall of the SHYREG method. Our purpose was then to assess these ARF thanks to long time-series of spatial rainfall data. We have used two sets of rainfall fields: i) hourly rainfall fields from a 10-year reference database of Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) over France (Tabary et al., 2012), ii) daily rainfall fields resulting from a 53-year

  9. Some characteristics of very heavy rainfall over Orissa during summer monsoon season

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    M Mohapatra; U C Mohanty

    2005-02-01

    Orissa is one of the most flood prone states of India. The floods in Orissa mostly occur during monsoon season due to very heavy rainfall caused by synoptic scale monsoon disturbances. Hence a study is undertaken to find out the characteristic features of very heavy rainfall (24 hours rainfall ≥ 125mm) over Orissa during summer monsoon season (June-September) by analysing 20 years (1980-1999) daily rainfall data of different stations in Orissa. The principal objective of this study is to find out the role of synoptic scale monsoon disturbances in spatial and temporal variability of very heavy rainfall over Orissa. Most of the very heavy rainfall events occur in July and August. The region, extending from central part of coastal Orissa in the southeast towards Sambalpur district in the northwest, experiences higher frequency and higher intensity of very heavy rainfall with less interannual variability. It is due to the fact that most of the causative synoptic disturbances like low pressure systems (LPS) develop over northwest (NW) Bay of Bengal with minimum interannual variation and the monsoon trough extends in west-northwesterly direction from the centre of the system. The very heavy rainfall occurs more frequently with less interannual variability on the western side of Eastern Ghat during all the months and the season except September. It occurs more frequently with less interannual variability on the eastern side of Eastern Ghat during September. The NW Bay followed by Gangetic West Bengal/Orissa is the most favourable region of LPS to cause very heavy rainfall over different parts of Orissa except eastern side of Eastern Ghat. The NW Bay and west central (WC) Bay are equally favourable regions of LPS to cause very heavy rainfall over eastern side of Eastern Ghat. The frequency of very heavy rain-fall does not show any significant trend in recent years over Orissa except some places in north-east Orissa which exhibit significant rising trend in all the

  10. Rainfall Simulation: methods, research questions and challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ries, J. B.; Iserloh, T.

    2012-04-01

    In erosion research, rainfall simulations are used for the improvement of process knowledge as well as in the field for the assessment of overland flow generation, infiltration, and erosion rates. In all these fields of research, rainfall experiments have become an indispensable part of the research methods. In this context, small portable rainfall simulators with small test-plot sizes of one square-meter or even less, and devices of low weight and water consumption are in demand. Accordingly, devices with manageable technical effort like nozzle-type simulators seem to prevail against larger simulators. The reasons are obvious: lower costs and less time consumption needed for mounting enable a higher repetition rate. Regarding the high number of research questions, of different fields of application, and not least also due to the great technical creativity of our research staff, a large number of different experimental setups is available. Each of the devices produces a different rainfall, leading to different kinetic energy amounts influencing the soil surface and accordingly, producing different erosion results. Hence, important questions contain the definition, the comparability, the measurement and the simulation of natural rainfall and the problem of comparability in general. Another important discussion topic will be the finding of an agreement on an appropriate calibration method for the simulated rainfalls, in order to enable a comparison of the results of different rainfall simulator set-ups. In most of the publications, only the following "nice" sentence can be read: "Our rainfall simulator generates a rainfall spectrum that is similar to natural rainfall!". The most substantial and critical properties of a simulated rainfall are the drop-size distribution, the fall velocities of the drops, and the spatial distribution of the rainfall on the plot-area. In a comparison of the most important methods, the Laser Distrometer turned out to be the most up

  11. The Effects of Amazon Deforestation on Rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor); Negri, Andrew J.; Adler, Robert F.; Surratt, Jason

    2002-01-01

    This study begins with the hypothesis that heavily deforested regions will experience increased surface heating, leading to local circulations that will ultimately enhance the rainfall, or at least, change the pattern of diurnal evolution of rainfall. This would be an important finding because several modeling studies have concluded that widespread deforestation would lead to decreased rainfall. Towards that end rain estimates from a combined GOES infrared/TRMM microwave technique were analyzed with respect to percent forest cover from Landsat data (courtesy of TRFIC at Michigan State University) and GOES visible channel data over a deforested area in Rondonia (southwest Brazil). Five 1" x 1" areas of varying forest cover were examined during the onset of the wet season in Amazonia (Aug-Sept), when the effects of the surface would not be dominated by large-scale synoptic weather patterns. Preliminary results revealed that: maximum rainfall fell in most deforested area; heavily forested areas received the least rainfall; cumulus cloud development initiated at borders; the amplitude of the diurnal cycle of precipitation was a function of th surface cover. Further work will be presented detailing effects of land surface cover on the GOES infrared-measured surface heating, GOES visible observed cumulus development, thunderstorm initiation based on the location of temperature minima in the infrared data, and estimated rainfall and its diurnal cycle from a combined GOES/TRMM technique. Rainfall estimates derived from non-geosynchronous microwave observations (i.e. Goddard Profiling Algorithm, GPROF) will also be examined.

  12. Temporal rainfall patterns with water partitioning impacts on maize yield in a freeze-thaw zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Fanghua; Chen, Siyang; Ouyang, Wei; Shan, Yushu; Qi, Shasha

    2013-04-01

    SummaryUnderstanding all components of the water balance, especially temporal rainfall patterns, is essential to optimize water use in rain-fed agriculture area. The effect of temporal rainfall patterns on water balance, evapotranspiration (ET), and crop growth was evaluated by considering root water extraction of plants in a rain-fed maize field. Soil water contents at depths of 15, 30, 60, and 90 cm were measured daily in 2-year growth seasons. A soil water balance approach was applied to estimate changes in daily soil water storage. For the detailed water partitioning of the water balance and root water extraction, the soil-water-atmosphere-plant (SWAP) model with water and crop modules was applied. Results suggested that the main depths of root water uptake occurred in the top 60 cm soil layer. Crop transpiration (T) can reach a level above 40% of the total water consumption during all growth stages, and its reduction was mainly due to the dry condition of soil. The crop yield in 2010 was 1125 kg ha-1 higher than that in 2011, although the rainfall amount in that year was 132 mm less than the rainfall amount in 2011. The water use efficiency (WUE) was also higher in 2010. Therefore, the influence of temporal rainfall patterns was clearly more important than rainfall amounts (water partitioning into evaporation (E), T, and soil water content). Growing season T/ET can be a potential parameter for maize productivity. The field can be irrigated at pivotal growth stages under dry conditions to obtain the optimal effect in improving WUE and increasing grain yield. The SWAP model was a useful tool to analyze water partitioning in the freeze-thaw zone.

  13. Spatial distribution of the timing of rainfall extremes derived by remote sensing and raingauges data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Libertino, Andrea; Claps, Pierluigi; Sharma, Ashish; Lakshmi, Venkat

    2016-04-01

    Severe rainfall events are quite common in the coastal areas of the Mediterranean basin during autumn season, despite its generally mild climate. Very often meteorological conditions responsible for these kinds of events are quasi-stationary convective systems, characterized by very localized development, hard to detect with traditional rain gauge networks. In order to improve prediction and management capabilities, progress must be made in understanding the mechanism that govern the development of these kind of precipitation systems at the different scales. Rainfall product from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) are commonly adopted in different branches of the environmental sciences due to the high spatio-temporal resolution and to the quasi-global nature of the data. Building upon the success of TRMM, NASA and JAXA deployed the GPM Core Observatory that, after just two years of activity, seems to allow for great improvement in the accuracy of rainfall products. We developed a methodology aimed at exploiting the timing information derived from high-resolution remote sensing products to analyze the characteristic of severe rainfall systems in the Mediterranean basin. The spatial analysis from satellite, combined with the historical information from the rain gauge network, allows us deepening the knowledge of the spatial extension of extreme rainfall phenomena. All those information, merged together in a hierarchical framework, lead to the definition of Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves "informed" on the nature of the events for each location of the domain, without the need to adopt classical interpolation techniques, unable to represent the complexity of the rainfall systems. The case study refers to a database of daily rainfall measurements extracted from the NOAA GHCN-Daily dataset, recorded during the 20th century by 700 rain gauges distributed in the Mediterranean basin. TRMM and GPM images are used to calibrate the event timing over the

  14. Physical simulation of urban rainfall infiltration

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Jie; ZENG Bing; WANG Yan-xia; SHEN Lei

    2008-01-01

    To meet the demand of urban rainwater integrated management, we designed and complemented a physical simulation experimental system of urban rainfall infiltration regulation parameters. We discuss the feasibility of quantitative regulations of urban underlying surface rainfall infiltration conditions and a practical application of a simulated experimental system. In a comprehensive analysis of the composition of an effective rainwater harvesting system and selection of water storage material, we simulated the major parameters of an experimental area rainfall, soil moisture and water storage capacity by providing an effective regulation of the experimental area runoff coefficient, obtained from basic data.

  15. Detecting Rainfall Onset Using Sky Images

    CERN Document Server

    Dev, Soumyabrata; Lee, Yee Hui; Winkler, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    Ground-based sky cameras (popularly known as Whole Sky Imagers) are increasingly used now-a-days for continuous monitoring of the atmosphere. These imagers have higher temporal and spatial resolutions compared to conventional satellite images. In this paper, we use ground-based sky cameras to detect the onset of rainfall. These images contain additional information about cloud coverage and movement and are therefore useful for accurate rainfall nowcast. We validate our results using rain gauge measurement recordings and achieve an accuracy of 89% for correct detection of rainfall onset.

  16. Pre-Hypertension among Young Adults (20-30 Years in Coastal Villages of Udupi District in Southern India: An Alarming Scenario.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanjay Kini

    Full Text Available According to Joint National Committee-7 (JNC-7 guidelines, a systolic blood pressure (SBP of 120 to 139 mm Hg and/or diastolic blood pressure (DBP of 80 to 89 mm Hg is considered as pre-hypertension. Existing evidence suggest that the cardiovascular morbidities are increasing among pre-hypertensive individuals compared to normal.To assess the magnitude and factors associated with pre-hypertension among young adults (20-30 years in coastal villages of Udupi Taluk (an area of land with a city or town that serves as its administrative centre and usually a number of villages, Udupi District, Karnataka state, India.Community based cross sectional study.6 (out of total 14 coastal villages of Udupi Taluk, Karnataka state, India.1,152 young adults (age group: 20-30 years selected by stratified random sampling in 6 coastal villages of Udupi Taluk, Karnataka state, India.A semi structured pre-tested questionnaire was used to elicit the details on socio-demographic variables, dietary habits, tobacco use, alcohol consumption, physical activity, family history of hypertension and stress levels. Anthropometric measurements and blood pressure were recorded according to standard protocols. Serum cholesterol was measured in a sub sample of the study population. Multivariate logistic regression was applied to identify the independent correlates of pre-hypertension among young adults (20-30 years.Prevalence, Odds ratio (OR and adjusted (adj OR for pre-hypertension among young adults (20-30 years.The prevalence of pre-hypertension in the study population was 45.2% (95%CI: 42.4-48. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that age group of 25-30 years (adj OR: 4.25, 95% CI: 2.99-6.05, white collared (adj OR: 2.29, 95% CI: 1.08-4.85 and skilled occupation (adj OR: 3.24, 95% CI: 1.64-6.42, students (adj OR: 2.46, 95% CI: 1.22-4.95, using refined cooking oil (adj OR: 0.53, 95% CI: 0.29-0.95, extra salt in meals (adj OR: 2.46, 95% CI: 1.52-3.99, salty food

  17. Pre-Hypertension among Young Adults (20–30 Years) in Coastal Villages of Udupi District in Southern India: An Alarming Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamath, Veena G.; Kulkarni, Muralidhar M.; Kamath, Asha; Shivalli, Siddharudha

    2016-01-01

    Introduction According to Joint National Committee-7 (JNC-7) guidelines, a systolic blood pressure (SBP) of 120 to 139 mm Hg and/or diastolic blood pressure (DBP) of 80 to 89 mm Hg is considered as pre-hypertension. Existing evidence suggest that the cardiovascular morbidities are increasing among pre-hypertensive individuals compared to normal. Objective To assess the magnitude and factors associated with pre-hypertension among young adults (20–30 years) in coastal villages of Udupi Taluk (an area of land with a city or town that serves as its administrative centre and usually a number of villages), Udupi District, Karnataka state, India. Design Community based cross sectional study Setting 6 (out of total 14) coastal villages of Udupi Taluk, Karnataka state, India. Sample 1,152 young adults (age group: 20–30 years) selected by stratified random sampling in 6 coastal villages of Udupi Taluk, Karnataka state, India Method A semi structured pre-tested questionnaire was used to elicit the details on socio-demographic variables, dietary habits, tobacco use, alcohol consumption, physical activity, family history of hypertension and stress levels. Anthropometric measurements and blood pressure were recorded according to standard protocols. Serum cholesterol was measured in a sub sample of the study population. Multivariate logistic regression was applied to identify the independent correlates of pre-hypertension among young adults (20–30 years). Main Outcome Measures Prevalence, Odds ratio (OR) and adjusted (adj) OR for pre-hypertension among young adults (20–30 years). Results The prevalence of pre-hypertension in the study population was 45.2% (95%CI: 42.4–48). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that age group of 25–30 years (adj OR: 4.25, 95% CI: 2.99–6.05), white collared (adj OR: 2.29, 95% CI: 1.08–4.85) and skilled occupation (adj OR: 3.24, 95% CI: 1.64–6.42), students (adj OR: 2.46, 95% CI: 1.22–4.95), using refined cooking oil

  18. A point rainfall model and rainfall intensity-duration-frequency analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoo, Chul-Sang; Jung, Kwang-Sik [Korea University, Jochiwon(Korea); Kim, Nam-Won [Korea Institute of Construction Technology, Koyang(Korea)

    2001-12-31

    This study proposes a theoretical methodology for deriving a rainfall intensity-duration-frequency(I-D-F) curve using a simple rectangular pulses Poisson process model. As the I-D-F curve derived by considering the model structure is dependent on the rainfall model parameters estimated using the observed first and second order statistics, it becomes less sensitive to the unusual rainfall events than that derived using the annual maxima rainfall series. This study has been applied to the rainfall data at Seoul and Incheon stations to check its applicability by comparing the two I-D-F curves from the model and the data. The results obtained are as followed. (1) As the duration becomes longer, the overlap probability increases significantly. However, its contribution to the rainfall intensity decreases a little. (2) When considering the overlap of each rainfall event, especially for large duration and return period, we could see obvious increases of rainfall intensity. This result is normal as the rainfall intensity is calculated by considering both the overlap probability and return period. Also, the overlap effect for Seoul station is found much higher than that for Incheon station, which is mainly due to the different overlap probabilities calculated using different rainfall model parameter sets. (3) As the rectangular pulses Poisson processes model used in this study cannot consider the clustering characteristics of rainfall, the derived I-D-F curves show less rainfall intensities than those from the annual maxima series. However, overall pattern of both I-D-F curves are found very similar, and the difference is believed to be overcome by use of a rainfall model with the clustering consideration. (author). 14 refs., 6 tabs., 2 figs.

  19. How does our ignorance of rainfall affect the uncertainty of hydrological computations?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lebecherel, Laure; Andréassian, Vazken

    2014-05-01

    Precipitation is an essential input to hydrological studies, fundamental for water balance studies, for hydrological simulation and forecasting. Since precipitation can be spatially and temporally variable, the configuration of the raingauge network can have a major impact on the accuracy of hydrological computations. Hydrological good sense tells us that the less we know about catchment rainfall, the more uncertain our hydrological computations will be. Quantifying this trend, i.e. the sensitivity of our computations to the design of the rainfall measurement network is essential in a context of increasing requests and decreasing finance. We keep hearing about the need to "rationalize" observation networks. However, this rationalization, which often means a reduction of network density, can deteriorate our rainfall knowledge and can particularly increase the hydrological computation uncertainties. We evaluate here on a large set of French catchments the impact of the rain gauge density and rain gauge network configuration on the uncertainty of several hydrological computations, based on the GR4J daily rainfall-runoff model [Perrin et al., 2003]. Four hydrological applications are considered: (i) daily runoff simulation, (ii) long-term average streamflow assessment, (iii) high-flow quantiles assessment, and (iv) low-flow quantiles assessment. Perrin, C., C. Michel, and V. Andréassian (2003), Improvement of a parsimonious model for streamflow simulation, Journal of Hydrology, 279(1-4), 275-289, doi: 10.1016/s0022-1694(03)00225-7.

  20. Detecting low frequency cycles in rainfall series from Colombian coffee-growing area by using descriptive methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peña Q Andrés J

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Descriptive statistical methods were used for improving climatic variability scenarios regarding rainfall using time series from five representative pluviometric stations (Miguel Valencia, Naranjal, Cenicafé, La Bella and Paraguaicito; such scenarios are used to make decisions regarding coffee-growing. The purpose was to find signs of cyclic behaviour besides those associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO which happens every 3.5 to 4.5 years. Signals were found of decadal to interdecadal cycle (10 to 30 years, modulating known ENSO effects related to periodic changes in the Pacific Ocean and solar activity.

  1. Spatial estimation of debris flows-triggering rainfall and its dependence on rainfall severity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Destro, Elisa; Marra, Francesco; Nikolopoulos, Efthymios; Zoccatelli, Davide; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Borga, Marco

    2016-04-01

    Forecasting the occurrence of landslides and debris flows (collectively termed 'debris flows' hereinafter) is fundamental for issuing hazard warnings, and focuses largely on rainfall as a triggering agent. Debris flow forecasting relies very often on the identification of combinations of depth and duration of rainfall - rainfall thresholds - that trigger widespread debris flows. Rainfall estimation errors related to the sparse nature of raingauge data are enhanced in case of convective rainfall events characterized by limited spatial extent. Such errors have been shown to cause underestimation of the rainfall thresholds and, thus, less efficient forecasts of debris flows occurrence. This work examines the spatial organization of debris flows-triggering rainfall around the debris flow initiation points using high-resolution, carefully corrected radar data for a set of short duration (events occurred in the eastern Italian Alps. The set includes eleven debris-flow triggering rainfall events that occurred in the study area between 2005 and 2014. The selected events are among the most severe in the region during this period and triggered a total of 99 debris flows that caused significant damage to people and infrastructures. We show that the spatial rainfall organisation depends on the severity (measured via the estimated return time-RT) of the debris flow-triggering rainfall. For more frequent events (RTevents (RT>20 yrs) the triggering rainfall presents a local peak corresponding to the debris flow initiation point. Dependence of these features on rainfall duration is quite limited. The characteristics of the spatial rainfall organisation are exploited to understand the performances and results of three different rainfall interpolation techniques: nearest neighbour (NN), inverse distance weighting (IDW) and ordinary kriging (OK). We show that the features of the spatial organization of the debris flow triggering rainfall explain the biases in the identification of

  2. Assessing the sources of uncertainty associated with the calculation of rainfall kinetic energy and erosivity – application to the Upper Llobregat Basin, NE Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Catari

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The diverse sources of uncertainty associated with the calculation of rainfall kinetic energy and rainfall erosivity, calculated from precipitation data, were investigated at a range of temporal and spatial scales in a mountainous river basin (504 km2 in the south-eastern Pyrenees. The sources of uncertainty analysed included both methodological and local sources of uncertainty and were (i tipping-bucket rainfall gauge instrumental errors, (ii the efficiency of the customary equation used to derive rainfall kinetic energy from intensity, (iii the efficiency of the regressions obtained between daily precipitation and rainfall erosivity, (iv the temporal variability of annual rainfall erosivity values, and the spatial variability of (v annual rainfall erosivity values and (vi long-term erosivity values. The differentiation between systematic (accuracy and random (precision errors was taken into account in diverse steps of the analysis. The results showed that the uncertainty associated with the calculation of rainfall kinetic energy from rainfall intensity at the event and station scales was as high as 30%, because of insufficient information on rainfall drop size distribution. This methodological limitation must be taken into account for experimental or modelling purposes when rainfall kinetic energy is derived solely from rainfall intensity data. For longer temporal scales, the relevance of this source of uncertainty remained high if low variability in the types of rain was supposed. Temporal variability of precipitation at wider spatial scales was the main source of uncertainty when rainfall erosivity was calculated on an annual basis, whereas the uncertainty associated with long-term erosivity was rather low and less important than the uncertainty associated with other model factors such as those in the RUSLE, when operationally used for long-term soil erosion modelling.

  3. Secular spring rainfall variability at local scale over Ethiopia: trend and associated dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsidu, Gizaw Mengistu

    2016-07-01

    general circulation model (AGCM) coupled to mixed-layer oceanic model. The rainfall anomaly (with respect to control simulation), forced by the northwestern Indian Ocean secular SST anomaly and averaged over the 30-year period, exhibits prevalence of dry conditions over East and equatorial Africa in agreement with observation. The atmospheric response to secular SST warming anomaly led to divergent flow at low levels and subsidence at the upper troposphere over regions north of 5° S on the continent and vice versa over the Indian Ocean. This surface difluence over East Africa, in addition to its role in suppressing convective activity, deprives the region of moisture supply from the Indian Ocean as well as the Atlantic and Congo basins.

  4. Comparison of pointwise and regional statistical approaches to detect non stationarity in extreme rainfall events. Application to the Sahelian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panthou, G.; Vischel, T.; Lebel, T.; Quantin, G.; Favre, A.; Blanchet, J.; Ali, A.

    2012-12-01

    Studying trends in rainfall extremes at regional scale is required to provide reference climatology to evaluate General Circulation Model global predictions as well as to help managing and designing hydraulic works. The present study compares three methods to detect trends (linear and change-point) in series of daily rainfall annual maxima: (i) The first approach is widely used and consist in applying statistical stationarity tests (linear trend and change-point) on the point-wise maxima series; (ii) The second approach compares the performances of a constant and a time dependent Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution fitted to the point-wise maxima series. (iii) The last method uses an original regional statistical model based on space-time GEV distribution which is used to detect changes in rainfall extremes directly at regional scale. The three methods are applied to detect trends in extreme daily rainfall over the Sahel during the period 1950-1990 for which a network of 128 daily rain gages is available. This region has experienced an intense drought since the end of the 1960s; it is thus an interesting case-study to illustrate how a regional climate change can affect the extreme rainfall distributions. One major result is that the statistical stationarity tests rarely detect non-stationarities in the series while the two GEV-based models converge to show that the extreme rainfall series have a negative break point around 1970. The study points out the limit of the widely used classical stationarity tests to detect trends in noisy series affected by sampling errors. The use of parametric time-dependent GEV seems to reduce this effect especially when a regional approach is used. From a climatological point of view, the results show that the great Sahelian drought has been accompanied by a decrease of extreme rainfall events, both in magnitude and occurence.

  5. Generalized Additive Modelling of Mixed Distribution Markov Models with Application to Melbourne's Rainfall.

    OpenAIRE

    Hyndman, R. J.; Grunwald, G. K.

    1999-01-01

    We consider modelling time series using a generalized additive model with first- order Markov structure and mixed transition density having a discrete component at zero and a continuous component with positive sample space. Such models have application, for example, in modelling daily occurrence and intensity of rainfall, and in modelling the number and size of insurance claims. We show how these methods extend the usual sinusoidal seasonal assumption in standard chain- dependent models by as...

  6. Climate-change driven increase in high intensity rainfall events: Analysis of development in the last decades and towards an extrapolation of future progression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Eva; Pfister, Angela; Gerd, Büger; Maik, Heistermann; Bronstert, Axel

    2015-04-01

    Hydrological extreme events can be triggered by rainfall on different spatiotemporal scales: river floods are typically caused by event durations of between hours and days, while urban flash floods as well as soil erosion or contaminant transport rather result from storms events of very short duration (minutes). Still, the analysis of climate change impacts on rainfall-induced extreme events is usually carried out using daily precipitation data at best. Trend analyses of extreme rainfall at sub-daily or even sub-hourly time scales are rare. In this contribution two lines of research are combined: first, we analyse sub-hourly rainfall data for several decades in three European regions.Second, we investigate the scaling behaviour of heavy short-term precipitation with temperature, i.e. the dependence of high intensity rainfall on the atmospheric temperature at that particular time and location. The trend analysis of high-resolution rainfall data shows for the first time that the frequency of short and intensive storm events in the temperate lowland regions in Germany has increased by up to 0.5 events per year over the last decades. I.e. this trend suggests that the occurrence of these types of storms have multiplied over only a few decades. Parallel to the changes in the rainfall regime, increases in the annual and seasonal average temperature and changes in the occurrence of circulation patterns responsible for the generation of high-intensity storms have been found. The analysis of temporally highly resolved rainfall records from three European regions further indicates that extreme precipitation events are more intense with warmer temperatures during the rainfall event. These observations follow partly the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. Based on this relation one may derive a general rule of maximum rainfall intensity associated to the event temperature, roughly following the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. This rule might be used for scenarios of future maximum

  7. Rainfall and deforestation in the municipality of Colíder, southern Amazon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabelle Bonini

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Deforestation may have effects on the hydrological cycle, directly reflecting in the rainfall rates. Therefore, studies pointing out evidence of climate changes caused by deforestation are extremely important, because they help understanding the way how these changes are related to forms of using and occupying the territory, as well as to the way how information obtained can to be useful for mitigating their effects. In this context, this paper aimed to analyze rainfall variations occurring in the municipality of Colíder, Mato Grosso, southern Amazon,Brazil, within a temporal scale of 28 years (daily data, correlating them to the regional and local deforestation patterns by determining Spearman's ρ coefficient. Annual rainfall presented a large variation, with a minimum of 1,296 mm in 1987 and a maximum of 2,492.8 mm in 1990. The rainy season was concentrated between October and April, and the driest period was within June and August. Spearman's coefficient pointed out negative correlations between regional and local deforestation and local rainfall, showing that the larger the deforested area, the lower the rainfall rate observed.

  8. The within-day behaviour of 6 minute rainfall intensity in Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. W. Western

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The statistical behaviour and distribution of high-resolution (6 min rainfall intensity within the wet part of rainy days (total rainfall depth >10 mm is investigated for 42 stations across Australia. This paper compares nine theoretical distribution functions (TDFs in representing these data. Two goodness-of-fit statistics are reported: the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE between the fitted and observed within-day distribution; and the coefficient of efficiency for the fit to the highest rainfall intensities (average intensity of the 5 highest intensity intervals across all days at a site. The three-parameter Generalised Pareto distribution was clearly the best performer. Good results were also obtained from Exponential, Gamma, and two-parameter Generalized Pareto distributions, each of which are two parameter functions, which may be advantageous when predicting parameter values. Results of different fitting methods are compared for different estimation techniques. The behaviour of the statistical properties of the within-day intensity distributions was also investigated and trends with latitude, Köppen climate zone (strongly related to latitude and daily rainfall amount were identified. The latitudinal trends are likely related to a changing mix of rainfall generation mechanisms across the Australian continent.

  9. The within-day behaviour of 6 minute rainfall intensity in Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Western, A. W.; Anderson, B.; Siriwardena, L.; Chiew, F. H. S.; Seed, A.; Blöschl, G.

    2011-08-01

    The statistical behaviour and distribution of high-resolution (6 min) rainfall intensity within the wet part of rainy days (total rainfall depth >10 mm) is investigated for 42 stations across Australia. This paper compares nine theoretical distribution functions (TDFs) in representing these data. Two goodness-of-fit statistics are reported: the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) between the fitted and observed within-day distribution; and the coefficient of efficiency for the fit to the highest rainfall intensities (average intensity of the 5 highest intensity intervals) across all days at a site. The three-parameter Generalised Pareto distribution was clearly the best performer. Good results were also obtained from Exponential, Gamma, and two-parameter Generalized Pareto distributions, each of which are two parameter functions, which may be advantageous when predicting parameter values. Results of different fitting methods are compared for different estimation techniques. The behaviour of the statistical properties of the within-day intensity distributions was also investigated and trends with latitude, Köppen climate zone (strongly related to latitude) and daily rainfall amount were identified. The latitudinal trends are likely related to a changing mix of rainfall generation mechanisms across the Australian continent.

  10. The within-day behaviour of 6 minute rainfall intensity in Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. W. Western

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The statistical behaviour and distribution of high-resolution (6 min rainfall intensity within the wet part of rainy days (total rainfall depth >10 mm is investigated for 42 stations across Australia. This paper compares nine theoretical distribution functions (TDFs in representing these data. Two goodness-of-fit statistics are reported: the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE between the fitted and observed within-day distribution; and the efficiency of prediction of the highest rainfall intensities (average intensity of the 5 highest intensity intervals. The three-parameter Generalised Pareto distribution was clearly the best performer. Good results were also obtained from Exponential, Gamma, and two-parameter Generalized Pareto distributions, each of which are two parameter functions, which may be advantageous when predicting parameter values. Results of different fitting methods are compared for different estimation techniques. The behaviour of the statistical properties of the within-day intensity distributions was also investigated and trends with latitude, Köppen climate zone (strongly related to latitude and daily rainfall amount were identified. The latitudinal trends are likely related to a changing mix of rainfall generation mechanisms across the Australian continent.

  11. Genetic Programming for the Downscaling of Extreme Rainfall Events on the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sahar Hadi Pour

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available A genetic programming (GP-based logistic regression method is proposed in the present study for the downscaling of extreme rainfall indices on the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia, which is considered one of the zones in Malaysia most vulnerable to climate change. A National Centre for Environmental Prediction reanalysis dataset at 42 grid points surrounding the study area was used to select the predictors. GP models were developed for the downscaling of three extreme rainfall indices: days with larger than or equal to the 90th percentile of rainfall during the north-east monsoon; consecutive wet days; and consecutive dry days in a year. Daily rainfall data for the time periods 1961–1990 and 1991–2000 were used for the calibration and validation of models, respectively. The results are compared with those obtained using the multilayer perceptron neural network (ANN and linear regression-based statistical downscaling model (SDSM. It was found that models derived using GP can predict both annual and seasonal extreme rainfall indices more accurately compared to ANN and SDSM.

  12. Systematic Evaluation of Satellite-Based Rainfall Products over the Brahmaputra Basin for Hydrological Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sagar Ratna Bajracharya

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Estimation of the flow generated in the Brahmaputra river basin is important for establishing an effective flood prediction and warning services as well as for water resources assessment and management. But this is a data scarce region with few and unevenly distributed hydrometeorological stations. Five high-resolution satellite rainfall products (CPC RFE2.0, RFE2.0-Modified, CMORPH, GSMaP, and TRMM 3B42 were evaluated at different spatial and temporal resolutions (daily, dekadal, monthly, and seasonal with observed rain gauge data from 2004 to 2006 to determine their ability to fill the data gap and suitability for use in hydrological and water resources management applications. Grid-to-grid (G-G and catchment-to-catchment (C-C comparisons were performed using the verification methods developed by the International Precipitation Working Group (IPWG. Comparing different products, RFE2.0-Modified, TRMM 3B42, and CMORPH performed best; they all detected heavy, moderate, and low rainfall but still significantly underestimated magnitude of rainfall, particularly in orographically influenced areas. Overall, RFE2.0-Modified performed best showing a high correlation coefficient with observed data and low mean absolute error, root mean square error, and multiple bias and is reasonably good at detecting the occurrence of rainfall. TRMM 3B42 showed the second best performance. The study demonstrates that there is a potential use of satellite rainfall in a data scarce region.

  13. Stochastic downscaling of precipitation: From dry events to heavy rainfalls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vrac, M.; Naveau, P.

    2007-07-01

    Downscaling precipitation is a difficult challenge for the climate community. We propose and study a new stochastic weather typing approach to perform such a task. In addition to providing accurate small and medium precipitation, our procedure possesses built-in features that allow us to model adequately extreme precipitation distributions. First, we propose a new distribution for local precipitation via a probability mixture model of Gamma and Generalized Pareto (GP) distributions. The latter one stems from Extreme Value Theory (EVT). The performance of this mixture is tested on real and simulated data, and also compared to classical rainfall densities. Then our downscaling method, extending the recently developed nonhomogeneous stochastic weather typing approach, is presented. It can be summarized as a three-step program. First, regional weather precipitation patterns are constructed through a hierarchical ascending clustering method. Second, daily transitions among our precipitation patterns are represented by a nonhomogeneous Markov model influenced by large-scale atmospheric variables like NCEP reanalyses. Third, conditionally on these regional patterns, precipitation occurrence and intensity distributions are modeled as statistical mixtures. Precipitation amplitudes are assumed to follow our mixture of Gamma and GP densities. The proposed downscaling approach is applied to 37 weather stations in Illinois and compared to various possible parameterizations and to a direct modeling. Model selection procedures show that choosing one GP distribution shape parameter per pattern for all stations provides the best rainfall representation amongst all tested models. This work highlights the importance of EVT distributions to improve the modeling and downscaling of local extreme precipitations.

  14. Logistiline Daily Service / Paavo Kangur

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Kangur, Paavo, 1966-

    2005-01-01

    Sügisel ostis Leedu endise majandusministri Valetntinas Milaknise firma Daily Service ära kõik bürootarvetemüüja Reval Impexi aktsiad. 300 miljoni kroonise aastakäibega firma Eesti tütarettevõte prognoosib oma tänavuseks käibeks 31,2 miljonit krooni. Lisa: Daily Service'i struktuur

  15. Rainfall variability over southern Africa: an overview of current research using satellite and climate model data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

    2009-04-01

    It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. In this research, satellite-derived rainfall data are used as a basis for undertaking model experiments using a state-of-the-art climate model, run at both high and low spatial resolution. Once the model's ability to reproduce extremes has been assessed, idealised regions of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are used to force the model, with the overall aim of investigating the ways in which SST anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. In this paper, a brief overview is given of the authors' research to date, pertaining to southern African rainfall. This covers (i) a description of present-day rainfall variability over southern Africa; (ii) a comparison of model simulated daily rainfall with the satellite-derived dataset; (iii) results from sensitivity testing of the model's domain size; and (iv) results from the idealised SST experiments.

  16. Climatic patterns and extreme rainfalls on coastal areas in Central Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bramati, M. C.; Tarragoni, C.

    2012-04-01

    In this paper we focus on the extreme values analysis to estimate the rainfall return levels for some Adriatic and Tyrrhenian coastal areas in central Italy. Two approaches are mainly considered: the first one is based on the maximum annual daily rainfall series (1-day, 2-day and 3-day) for which suitable probability distributions are fitted, whereas the second one is based on the series of peaks over annual thresholds (POT) for which the best fitting Generalized Pareto distribution is identified. Spectral analysis and appropriate tests for stationarity and homogeneity are run in order to verify the hypothesis under which the analysis performed is valid. From the density plots and the parameter estimates of the fitted distributions to the various annual maximum rainfall series we can conclude that there is a different pattern in the occurrence of extreme events for the western coast with respect to the eastern coast. Specifically, on the Tyrrhenian side extreme rainfalls are more likely to happen in correspondence of longer time spans (i.e. 3-day series) as the effect of cumulated stable rainfalls over time. On the opposite, for the Adriatic coast extremes are more frequent in shorter time spans (1-day). A vector autoregressive model is then estimated and through a causal ordering the identifying restrictions are set. The impulse response analysis shows a lag in the transmission of rainfall shocks of the central Adriatic coast to the Tyrrhenian one. This paper is prepared as a background paper to the SECOA N1.2 Report: Assessment of frequency-magnitude of extreme rainfall events and flooding. Project SECOA (Solutions for Environmental contrast in Coastal Areas) is funded by the EU Commission within the 7th Framework Programme (2007-2013).

  17. Climatology of observed rainfall in Southeast France at the Regional Climate Model scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Froidurot, Stéphanie; Molinié, Gilles; Diedhiou, Arona

    2016-04-01

    In order to provide convenient data to assess rainfall simulated by Regional Climate Models, a spatial database (hereafter called K-REF) has been designed. This database is used to examine climatological features of rainfall in Southeast France, a study region characterized by two mountain ranges of comparable altitude (the Cévennes and the Alps foothill) on both sides of the Rhône valley. Hourly records from 1993 to 2013 have been interpolated to a 0.1° × 0.1° latitude-longitude regular grid and accumulated over 3-h periods in K-REF. The assessment of K-REF relatively to the SAFRAN daily rainfall reanalysis indicates consistent patterns and magnitudes between the two datasets even though K-REF fields are smoother. A multi-scale analysis of the occurrence and non-zero intensity of rainfall is performed and shows that the maps of the 50th and 95th percentiles of 3- and 24-h rain intensity highlight different patterns. The maxima of the 50th and 95th percentiles are located over plain and mountainous areas respectively. Moreover, the location of these maxima is not the same for the 3- and 24-h intensities. To understand these differences between median and intense rainfall on the one hand and between the 3- and 24-h rainfall on the other hand, we analyze the statistical distributions and the space-time structure of occurrence and intensity of the 3-h rainfall in two classes of days, defined as median and intense. This analysis illustrates the influence of two factors on the triggering and the intensity of rain in the region: the solar cycle and the orography. The orographic forcing appears to be quite different for the two ranges of the domain and is much more pronounced over the Cévennes.

  18. Spatiotemporal variations in rainfall erosivity during the period of 1960-2011 in Guangdong Province, southern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Qinghe; Liu, Qian; Ma, Lijiao; Ding, Shengyan; Xu, Shanshan; Wu, Changsong; Liu, Pu

    2015-12-01

    Rainfall erosivity, which shows a potential risk of soil loss caused by water erosion, is an important factor in soil erosion process. In consideration of the critical condition of soil erosion induced by rainfall in Guangdong Province of southern China, this study analyzed the spatial and temporal variations in rainfall erosivity based on daily rainfall data observed at 25 meteorological stations during the period of 1960-2011. The methods of global spatial autocorrelation, kriging interpolation, Mann-Kendall test, and continuous wavelet transform were used. Results revealed that the annual rainfall erosivity in Guangdong Province, which spatially varied with the maximum level observed in June, was classified as high erosivity with two peaks that occur in spring and summer. In the direction of south-north, mean annual rainfall erosivity, which showed significant relationships with mean annual rainfall and latitude, gradually decreased with the high values mainly distributed in the coastal area and the low values mainly occurring in the lowlands of northwestern Guangdong. Meanwhile, a significant positive spatial autocorrelation which implied a clustered pattern was observed for annual rainfall erosivity. The spatial distribution of seasonal rainfall erosivity exhibited clustering tendencies, except spring erosivity with Moran's I and Z values of 0.1 and 1.04, respectively. The spatial distribution of monthly rainfall erosivity presented clustered patterns in January-March and July-October as well as random patterns in the remaining months. The temporal trend of mean rainfall erosivity in Guangdong Province showed no statistically significant trend at the annual, seasonal, and monthly scales. However, at each station, 1 out of 25 stations exhibited a statistically significant trend at the annual scale; 4 stations located around the Pearl River Delta presented significant trends in summer at the seasonal scale; significant trends were observed in March (increasing

  19. Comparison of radar data versus rainfall data

    OpenAIRE

    Espinosa, B.; T.V. Hromadka II; Perez, R.

    2015-01-01

    Doppler radar data are increasingly used in rainfall-runoff synthesis studies, perhaps due to radar data availability, among other factors. However, the veracity of the radar data are often a topic of concern. In this paper, three Doppler radar outcomes developed by the United States National Weather Service at three radar sites are examined and compared to actual rain gage data for two separate severe storm events in order to assess accuracy in the published radar estimates of rainfall. Beca...

  20. Spatial moments of catchment rainfall: rainfall spatial organisation, basin morphology, and flood response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Zoccatelli

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides a general analytical framework for assessing the dependence existing between spatial rainfall organisation, basin morphology and runoff response. The analytical framework builds upon a set of spatial rainfall statistics (termed "spatial moments of catchment rainfall>" which describe the spatial rainfall organisation in terms of concentration and dispersion statistics as a function of the distance measured along the flow routing coordinate. The introduction of these statistics permits derivation of a simple relationship for the quantification of storm velocity at the catchment scale. The paper illustrates the development of the analytical framework and explains the conceptual meaning of the statistics by means of application to five extreme flash floods occurred in various European regions in the period 2002–2007. High resolution radar rainfall fields and a distributed hydrologic model are employed to examine how effective are these statistics in describing the degree of spatial rainfall organisation which is important for runoff modelling. This is obtained by quantifying the effects of neglecting the spatial rainfall variability on flood modelling, with a focus on runoff timing. The size of the study catchments ranges between 36 to 982 km2. The analysis reported here shows that the spatial moments of catchment rainfall> can be effectively employed to isolate and describe the features of rainfall spatial organization which have significant impact on runoff simulation. These statistics provide essential information on what space-time scales rainfall has to be monitored, given certain catchment and flood characteristics, and what are the effects of space-time aggregation on flood response modeling.

  1. Chase the direct impact of rainfall into groundwater in Mt. Fuji from multiple analyses including microbial DNA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, Kenji; Sugiyama, Ayumi; Nagaosa, Kazuyo; Tsujimura, Maki

    2016-04-01

    A huge amount of groundwater is stored in subsurface environment of Mt. Fuji, the largest volcanic mountain in Japan. Based on the concept of piston flow transport of groundwater an apparent residence time was estimated to ca. 30 years by 36Cl/Cl ratio (Tosaki et al., 2011). However, this number represents an averaged value of the residence time of groundwater which had been mixed before it flushes out. We chased signatures of direct impact of rainfall into groundwater to elucidate the routes of groundwater, employing three different tracers; stable isotopic analysis (delta 18O), chemical analysis (concentration of silica) and microbial DNA analysis. Though chemical analysis of groundwater shows an averaged value of the examined water which was blended by various water with different sources and routes in subsurface environment, microbial DNA analysis may suggest the place where they originated, which may give information of the source and transport routes of the water examined. Throughout the in situ observation of four rainfall events showed that stable oxygen isotopic ratio of spring water and shallow groundwater obtained from 726m a.s.l. where the average recharge height of rainfall was between 1500 and 1800 m became higher than the values before a torrential rainfall, and the concentration of silica decreased after this event when rainfall exceeded 300 mm in precipitation of an event. In addition, the density of Prokaryotes in spring water apparently increased. Those changes did not appear when rainfall did not exceed 100 mm per event. Thus, findings shown above indicated a direct impact of rainfall into shallow groundwater, which appeared within a few weeks of torrential rainfall in the studied geological setting. In addition, increase in the density of Archaea observed at deep groundwater after the torrential rainfall suggested an enlargement of the strength of piston flow transport through the penetration of rainfall into deep groundwater. This finding was

  2. Is the interannual variability of summer rainfall in China dominated by precipitation frequency or intensity? An analysis of relative importance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Er; Ding, Ying; Zhou, Bing; Zou, Xukai; Chen, Xianyan; Cai, Wenyue; Zhang, Qiang; Chen, Haishan

    2016-07-01

    The summer rainfall in China has a large interannual variability, which results from the concurrent variations of precipitation frequency and intensity. Using the observed daily precipitation in the 194 stations during recent 62 years, we examine the relative importance of the frequency and intensity in the variability of the rainfall. A simple method, based on linear regression, is used to estimate the relative importance. The products of the change rates of rainfall with respect to frequency and intensity, determined from the regression, and the corresponding standard deviations of the two variables, which reflect their variation scales, are defined to measure the importance of frequency and intensity. To determine the frequency, rainfall amount, and intensity from daily precipitation, we need a threshold to define the "rainy day". In this study, we use a series of thresholds, ranging from 1 to 30 mm/day. So, while presenting the result of relative importance for each threshold, we also examine how the relative importance varies with the threshold. Results show that for the threshold of 1 mm/day, with which the rainfall may include even the light rains, the variabilities of summer rainfall in most stations are dominated by intensity. With the increase in threshold, the importance of frequency increases, while the importance of intensity decreases. When the threshold reaches 30 mm/day, with which the rainfall includes only moderate-to-heavy rains, the variabilities of the rainfall in all stations are dominated by frequency. Analysis suggests that such a change, in the dominance with the threshold, is reasonable. This reasonability, in turn, supports the reliability and robustness of the method.

  3. Analysis of the pathways relating soil moisture and subsequent rainfall in Illinois

    Science.gov (United States)

    Findell, Kirsten L.; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

    1999-01-01

    This study is a continuation of an earlier work [Findell and Eltahir, 1997] on the soil moisture-rainfall feedback using a data set of biweekly neutron probe measurements of soil moisture at up to 19 stations throughout Illinois. Analyses in this earlier work showed a positive correlation between initial soil saturation and subsequent rainfall from early June to mid-August. This correlation was more significant than the serial correlation within precipitation, suggesting the likelihood of a physical mechanism linking soil moisture to subsequent rainfall. This paper probes the nature of such a physical pathway linking soil moisture to subsequent rainfall. The pathway is divided into two stages: soil moisture and near-surface air, and near-surface air and rainfall. An analysis of the connections between an average daily soil saturation for the whole state of Illinois with statewide average near-surface air conditions did not yield the anticipated positive correlation between soil moisture and moist static energy (MSE). It is not clear if this is due to limitations of the data or of the theory. Other factors, such as clouds, could potentially be masking the impacts of soil moisture on the energy of the near-surface air. There was evidence, however, that moisture availability at the surface has a very strong impact on the wet-bulb depression of near-surface air, particularly from mid-May to the end of August, showing good correspondence to the period of significant soil moisture-rainfall association. The final set of analyses performed used hourly boundary layer and rainfall data. A link between high MSE and high rainfall was noted during some summer months, and a link between low wet-bulb depression and high rainfall was evident for all of the months analyzed (April through September). These analyses suggest that the significant but weak correlation between soil moisture and rainfall during Illinois summers is at least partially due to soil moisture controls on the

  4. Trends analyses of 30 years of ambient 8 hour ozone and precursor monitoring data in the South Central U.S.: progress and challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sather, Mark E; Cavender, Kevin

    2016-07-13

    In the last 30 years ambient ozone concentrations have notably decreased in the South Central U.S. Yet, current ambient ozone concentrations measured over the past three years 2013-2015 in this area of the U.S. are not meeting the U.S. 2015 8 hour ozone standard of 70 parts per billion (ppb). This paper provides an update on long-term trends analyses of ambient 8 hour ozone and ozone precursor monitoring data collected over the past 30 years (1986-2015) in four South Central U.S. cities, following up on two previously published reviews of 20 and 25 year trends for these cities. All four cities have benefitted from national ozone precursor controls put in place during the 1990s and 2000s involving cleaner vehicles (vehicle fleet turnover/replacement over time), cleaner fuels, cleaner gasoline and diesel engines, and improved inspection/maintenance programs for existing vehicles. Additional ozone precursor emission controls specific to each city are detailed in this paper. The controls have resulted in impressive ambient ozone and ambient ozone precursor concentration reductions in the four South Central U.S. cities over the past 30 years, including 31-70% ambient nitrogen oxides (NOx) concentration declines from historical peaks to the present, 43-72% volatile organic compound (VOC) concentration declines from historical peaks to the present, a related 45-76% VOC reactivity decline for a subset of VOC species from historical peaks to the present, and an 18-38 ppb reduction in city 8 hour ozone design value concentrations. A new challenge for each of the four South Central U.S. cities will be meeting the U.S. 2015 8 hour ozone standard of 70 ppb. PMID:27282109

  5. The effects of advertising in Twitter on the regular 20-30 year old users : Advertising in a social networking medium

    OpenAIRE

    Terekhina, Larisa

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this thesis work was to investigate and analyze in what way online adver-tising in Twitter affects its regular users nowadays. More specifically it focused on the young (20-30 years old) frequent Internet users of the social networking medium. The theoretical part of the study introduced Twitter and methods of advertising in it. The em-pirical part of the thesis was conducted by using a quantitative research method. The data was gathered from discussions of a focus and a contro...

  6. Daily and Sub-daily Precipitation for the Former USSR

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset is a compilation of in situ daily and hourly meteorological observations for the former USSR initially obtained within the framework of several joint...

  7. An integrated approach for identifying homogeneous regions of extreme rainfall events and estimating IDF curves in Southern Ontario, Canada: Incorporating radar observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paixao, Edson; Mirza, M. Monirul Qader; Shephard, Mark W.; Auld, Heather; Klaassen, Joan; Smith, Graham

    2015-09-01

    Reliable extreme rainfall information is required for many applications including infrastructure design, management of water resources, and planning for weather-related emergencies in urban and rural areas. In this study, in situ TBRG sub-daily rainfall rate observations have been supplemented with weather radar information to better capture the spatial and temporal variability of heavy rainfall events regionally. Comparison of extreme rainfall events show that the absolute differences between the rain gauge and radar generally increase with increasing rainfall. Better agreement between the two observations is found when comparing the collocated radar and TBRG annual maximum values. The median difference is <18% for the annual maximum rainfall values ⩽50 mm. The median of difference of IDF estimates obtained through the Gumbel distribution for 10-year return period values computed from TBRG and radar are also found to be 4%. The overall results of this analysis demonstrates the potential value of incorporating remotely sensed radar with traditional point source TBRG network observations to provide additional insight on extreme rainfall events regionally, especially in terms of identifying homogeneous regions of extreme rainfall. The radar observations are particularly useful in areas where there is insufficient TBRG station density to statistically capture the extreme rainfall events.

  8. Subseasonal-to-interannual variability of rainfall over New Caledonia (SW Pacific)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moron, Vincent; Barbero, Renaud; Robertson, Andrew W.

    2016-04-01

    Daily rainfall occurrence and amount at 55 stations over New Caledonia (NC, 20°S, 166°E) are examined throughout the calendar year during 1980-2010 using a Hidden Markov Model (HMM). Daily rainfall variability is described in terms of six discrete rainfall states identified by the HMM. Three states are interpreted as trade wind regimes associated with persistent low level anticyclonic conditions and weak to strong easterlies. The most prevalent state (state 1; 36 % of days) is dry everywhere and is characterized by an elongated anticyclone centered around Australia; NC is located on the eastern edge of this anticyclone. This state is predominant from mid-May to mid-December and peaks in September. The second most prevalent state (state 2; 27 % of days) and the last trade regime (state 4; 12 % of days) are most frequent in austral summer. States 2 and 4 are associated with the subtropical anticyclone centered south of NC, close to its climatological location in austral summer, and light (state 2) to moderate (state 4) rainfall mostly along the windward coast. A distinct state (state 3; 11 % of days) is mostly associated with wintertime extratropical eastward traveling troughs between New Caledonia and New Zealand, inducing light rainfall over the SW of the main island of New Caledonia. The two last states 5 and 6 are infrequent (March. These states are associated with synoptic wave traveling eastward from eastern Australia leading to a strong influx of moisture from the equatorial latitudes when the associated cyclonic centre is located west of New Caledonia. The wettest state is also strongly modulated by intra-seasonal 15-80 days variability. These events contribute to intermittent southwestward shifts of the South Pacific Convergence Zone from its mean location northeast of New Caledonia. On interannual timescales, the occurrence of the rainfall states is modulated by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The ENSO impact is strongest from mid-August to

  9. Reconstruction of rainfall events responsible for landslides using an algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melillo, Massimo; Brunetti, Maria Teresa; Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Guzzetti, Fausto; Peruccacci, Silvia

    2014-05-01

    In Italy, intense or prolonged rainfall is the primary trigger of damaging landslides. The identification of the rainfall conditions responsible for the initiation of landslides is a crucial issue and may contribute to reduce landslide risk. Objective criteria for the identification of rainfall conditions that could initiate slope failures are still lacking or ambiguous. The reconstruction of rainfall events able to trigger past landslides is usually performed manually by expert investigators. Here, we propose an algorithm that reconstructs automatically rainfall events from a series of hourly rainfall data. The automatic reconstruction reproduces the actions performed by an expert investigator that adopts empirical rules to define rainfall conditions that presumably initiated the documented landslides. The algorithm, which is implemented in R (http://www.r-project.org), performs three actions on the data series: (i) removes isolated events with negligible amount of rainfall and random noise generated by the rain gauge; (ii) aggregates rainfall measurements in order to obtain a sequence of distinct rainfall events; (iii) identifies single or multiple rainfall conditions responsible for the slope failures. In particular, the algorithm calculates the duration, D, and the cumulated rainfall, E, for rainfall events, and for rainfall conditions that have resulted in landslides. A set of input parameters allows the automatic reconstruction of rainfall events in different physical settings and climatic conditions. We tested the algorithm using rainfall and landslide information available to us for Sicily, Southern Italy, in the period between January 2002 and December 2012. The algorithm reconstructed 13,537 rainfall events and 343 rainfall conditions as possible triggers of the 163 documented landslides. Most (87.7%) of the rainfall conditions obtained manually were reconstructed accurately. Use of the algorithm shall contribute to an objective and reproducible

  10. Space-Time Characteristics of Rainfall Diurnal Variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Song; Kummerow, Chris; Olson, Bill; Smith, Eric A.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The space-time features of rainfall diurnal variation of precipitation are systematically investigated by using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation products retrieved from TRMM microwave imager (TMI), precipitation radar (PR) and TMI/PR combined algorithms. Results demonstrate that diurnal variability of precipitation is obvious over tropical regions. The dominant feature of rainfall diurnal cycle over, ocean is that there is consistent rainfall peak in early morning, while there is a consistent rainfall peak in mid-late afternoon over land. The seasonal variation on intensity of rainfall diurnal cycle is clearly evidenced. Horizontal distributions of rainfall diurnal variations indicate that there is a clearly early-morning peak with a secondary peak in the middle-late afternoon in ocean rainfall at latitudes dominated by large-scale convergence and deep convection. There is also an analogous early-morning peak in land rainfall along with a stronger afternoon peak forced by surface heating. Amplitude analysis shows that the patterns and its evolution of rainfall diurnal cycle are very close to rainfall distribution pattern and its evolution. These results indicate that rainfall diurnal variations are strongly associated with large-scale convective systems and climate weather systems. Phase studies clearly present the regional and seasonal features of rainfall diurnal activities. Further studies on convective and stratiform rainfall show different characteristics of diurnal cycles. Their spatial and temporal variations of convective and stratiform rainfall indicate that mechanisms for rainfall diurnal variations vary with time and space.

  11. Long-term trends and variability of rainfall extremes in the Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villafuerte, Marcelino Q.; Matsumoto, Jun; Akasaka, Ikumi; Takahashi, Hiroshi G.; Kubota, Hisayuki; Cinco, Thelma A.

    2014-02-01

    Owing to the increasing concerns about climate change due to the recent extreme rainfall events in the Philippines, long-term trends and variability in rainfall extremes in the country are investigated using 60-year (1951-2010) daily rainfall data from 35 meteorological stations. Rainfall extremes are described using seven extreme precipitation indices (EPI) that characterize daily rainfall in terms of intensity, accumulation, and duration on a seasonal perspective. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test is employed in combination with the moving blocks bootstrapping technique to detect significant trends in EPI. The results suggest a tendency toward a drying condition for the dry season, January-March (JFM), as indicated by statistically significant decreasing trends in seasonal wet days total rainfall (PCPTOT) associated with increasing trends in maximum length of dry spell (LDS). In contrast, statistically significant increasing trends in maximum 5-day rainfall (RX5day) and decreasing trends in LDS denote a wetting condition during the July-September (JAS) season, particularly at stations located in the northwest and central Philippines. The trends obtained are further assessed by examining the longer time series of EPI at four meteorological stations (Aparri, Dagupan, Iloilo, and Masbate) that have rainfall data from 1911 to 2010. The longer historical data revealed that the trends obtained in the shorter period (1951-2010) could either be consistent with the continuous long-term trends, as observed in RX5day during JAS at Aparri and Masbate, or represent interdecadal variability as was observed at Dagupan and Iloilo. The long-term (1911-2010) southwestward extension of the western North Pacific subtropical high associated with a weakening of the 850-hPa westerly wind over the South China Sea partly provides a possible cause of the trends in EPI during JAS, whereas the weakening of the East Asian winter monsoon contributed somewhat to the trends obtained during

  12. Exploring the relationship between malaria, rainfall intermittency, and spatial variation in rainfall seasonality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merkord, C. L.; Wimberly, M. C.; Henebry, G. M.; Senay, G. B.

    2014-12-01

    Malaria is a major public health problem throughout tropical regions of the world. Successful prevention and treatment of malaria requires an understanding of the environmental factors that affect the life cycle of both the malaria pathogens, protozoan parasites, and its vectors, anopheline mosquitos. Because the egg, larval, and pupal stages of mosquito development occur in aquatic habitats, information about the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall is critical for modeling malaria risk. Potential sources of hydrological data include satellite-derived rainfall estimates (TRMM and GPM), evapotranspiration derived from a simplified surface energy balance, and estimates of soil moisture and fractional water cover from passive microwave imagery. Previous studies have found links between malaria cases and total monthly or weekly rainfall in areas where both are highly seasonal. However it is far from clear that monthly or weekly summaries are the best metrics