WorldWideScience

Sample records for 30-year daily rainfall

  1. Maximum daily rainfall in South Korea

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Saralees Nadarajah; Dongseok Choi

    2007-08-01

    Annual maxima of daily rainfall for the years 1961–2001 are modeled for five locations in South Korea (chosen to give a good geographical representation of the country). The generalized extreme value distribution is fitted to data from each location to describe the extremes of rainfall and to predict its future behavior. We find evidence to suggest that the Gumbel distribution provides the most reasonable model for four of the five locations considered. We explore the possibility of trends in the data but find no evidence suggesting trends. We derive estimates of 10, 50, 100, 1000, 5000, 10,000, 50,000 and 100,000 year return levels for daily rainfall and describe how they vary with the locations. This paper provides the first application of extreme value distributions to rainfall data from South Korea.

  2. Large Salt Dust Storms Follow a 30-Year Rainfall Cycle in the Mar Chiquita Lake (Cordoba, Argentina.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrique H Bucher

    Full Text Available Starting in 2006, a new source of intense salt dust storms developed in Mar Chiquita (Córdoba, Argentina, the largest saline lake in South America. Storms originate from vast mudflats left by a 30-year expansion-retreat cycle of the lake due to changes in the regional rainfall regime. The annual frequency of salt dust storms correlated with the size of the salt mudflats. Events were restricted to the coldest months, and reached up to 800 km from the source. Occurrence of dust storms was associated with specific surface colors and textures easily identifiable in satellite images. High-emission surfaces were characterized by the presence of sodium sulfate hydrous/anhydrous crystals (mirabilite and thenardite, and a superficial and variable water table, which may result in the periodic development of a characteristic "fluffy" surface derived from salt precipitation-dissolution processes. HYSPLIT model simulation estimates a deposition maximum near the sources (of about 2.5 kg/ha/yr, and a decreasing trend from the emission area outwards, except for the relative secondary maximum modeled over the mountain ranges in southern Bolivia and northern Argentina due to an orographic effect. The 2009 total deposition of salt dust generated in Mar Chiquita was estimated at 6.5 million tons.

  3. Preliminary results of a 30-year daily rainfall data base in southern Italy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Federico, Stefano; Avolio, Elenio; Pasqualoni, Loredana;

    2009-01-01

    are important for Calabria: a) storms originating in the lee of the Alps; b) storms that enter the Basin or develop in the western Mediterranean (Gulf of Lyon, Rhone valley, Iberia, Gibraltar); c) storms from northern Africa; d) storms moving over the central Mediterranean from Balkans and eastern Europe. Again...

  4. Observed daily large-scale rainfall patterns during BOBMEX-1999

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A K Mitra; M Das Gupta; R K Paliwal; S V Singh

    2003-06-01

    A daily rainfall dataset and the corresponding rainfall maps have been produced by objective analysis of rainfall data. The satellite estimate of rainfall and the raingauge values are merged to form the final analysis. Associated with epochs of monsoon these rainfall maps are able to show the rainfall activities over India and the Bay of Bengal region during the BOBMEX period. The intra-seasonal variations of rainfall during BOBMEX are also seen using these data. This dataset over the oceanic region compares well with other available popular datasets like GPCP and CMAP. Over land this dataset brings out the features of monsoon in more detail due to the availability of more local raingauge stations.

  5. Attributes for MRB_E2RF1 Catchments by Major River Basins in the Conterminous United States: 30-Year Average Daily Minimum Temperature, 1971-2000

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This tabular data set represents thecatchment-average for the 30-year (1971-2000) average daily minimum temperature in Celsius multiplied by 100 compiled for every...

  6. Rainfall Distributions in Sri Lanka in Time and Space: An Analysis Based on Daily Rainfall Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. P. Burt

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Daily rainfall totals are analyzed for the main agro-climatic zones of Sri Lanka for the period 1976–2006. The emphasis is on daily rainfall rather than on longer-period totals, in particular the number of daily falls exceeding given threshold totals. For one station (Mapalana, where a complete daily series is available from 1950, a longer-term perspective on changes over half a century is provided. The focus here is particularly on rainfall in March and April, given the sensitivity of agricultural decisions to early southwest monsoon rainfall at the beginning of the Yala cultivation season but other seasons are also considered, in particular the northeast monsoon. Rainfall across Sri Lanka over three decades is investigated in relation to the main atmospheric drivers known to affect climate in the region: sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, of which the former are shown to be more important. The strong influence of El Niño and La Niña phases on various aspects of the daily rainfall distribution in Sri Lanka is confirmed: positive correlations with Pacific sea-surface temperatures during the north east monsoon and negative correlations at other times. It is emphasized in the discussion that Sri Lanka must be placed in its regional context and it is important to draw on regional-scale research across the Indian subcontinent and the Bay of Bengal.

  7. Multi-daily rainfall climatology and change for water resource management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gajic-Capka, M.; Capka, B.

    2009-09-01

    The ongoing study on precipitation regime in the Croatian Drava River basin is intended to be used by decision makers in water and energy resource management. One side aspect of this study is the variability in daily and multi-daily amounts (2- and 5-days), the indices defined by WMO and amended by the end-users, which are critical for applications in assessment and maintenance of flooding. The daily rainfall series are from the period 1961-2000, collected at two rain gauges: Varazdin in the upper part of the Croatian Drava River basin and Osijek in the low one, not far from its mouse into the Danube River. The applied Gamma probability distribution makes it possible to estimate the likelihood of rainfall at different durations within a specific range. The generalized extreme value distribution is employed to compute the design values of annual maximal 1-, 2- and 5-day precipitation amounts with different return periods indicating at precipitation risk. In addition to the extreme precipitation characteristics of the current climate, the evolution of trends in annual maximal 1-, 2- and 5-day rainfall amounts are derived from linear regression during the period 1901-2007 at Osijek and for the both stations since 1951. Statistical significance at the 5% confidence level is established using the Mann-Kendall rank non-parametric test. The coefficients of variation, indicating interannual variability, are then computed for consecutive 30-year moving time windows (1 year step) for each parameter. Trends for 30-year periods with the 10-year step (1901-1930, 1911-1940, ....) were computed to detect the possible changes in variability. At the level of the synoptic measurements, the analysis of weather types related to the extreme rainfall events would be deduced.

  8. Interpolation of daily rainfall using spatiotemporal models and clustering

    KAUST Repository

    Militino, A. F.

    2014-06-11

    Accumulated daily rainfall in non-observed locations on a particular day is frequently required as input to decision-making tools in precision agriculture or for hydrological or meteorological studies. Various solutions and estimation procedures have been proposed in the literature depending on the auxiliary information and the availability of data, but most such solutions are oriented to interpolating spatial data without incorporating temporal dependence. When data are available in space and time, spatiotemporal models usually provide better solutions. Here, we analyse the performance of three spatiotemporal models fitted to the whole sampled set and to clusters within the sampled set. The data consists of daily observations collected from 87 manual rainfall gauges from 1990 to 2010 in Navarre, Spain. The accuracy and precision of the interpolated data are compared with real data from 33 automated rainfall gauges in the same region, but placed in different locations than the manual rainfall gauges. Root mean squared error by months and by year are also provided. To illustrate these models, we also map interpolated daily precipitations and standard errors on a 1km2 grid in the whole region. © 2014 Royal Meteorological Society.

  9. Non-stationarity in daily and sub-daily intense rainfall – Part 1: Sydney, Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Jakob

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available This study was driven by a need to clarify how variations in climate might affect intense rainfall and the potential for flooding. Sub-daily durations are of particular interest for urban applications. Worldwide, few such observation-based studies exist, which is mainly due to limitations in data. While there are still large discrepancies between precipitation data sets from observations and models, both show that there is a tendency for moist regions to become wetter and for dry regions to become drier. However, changes in extreme conditions may show the opposite sign to those in average conditions. Where changes in observed intense precipitation have been studied, this has typically been for daily durations or longer.

    The purpose of this two-part study is to examine daily and sub-daily rainfall extremes for evidence of non-stationarity. Here the problem was addressed by supplementing one long record (Part 1 by a set of shorter records for a 30-yr concurrent period (Part 2. Variations in frequency and magnitude of rainfall extremes across durations from 6 min to 72 h were assessed using data from sites in the south-east of Australia. For the analyses presented in this paper, a peaks-over-threshold approach was chosen since it allows investigating changes in frequency as well as magnitude. Non-parametric approaches were used to assess changes in frequency, magnitude, and quantile estimates as well as the statistical significance of changes for one station (Sydney Observatory Hill for the period 1921 to 2005. Deviations from the long-term average vary with season, duration, and threshold. The effects of climate variations are most readily detected for the highest thresholds. Deviations from the long-term average tend to be larger for frequencies than for magnitudes, and changes in frequency and magnitude may have opposite signs.

    Investigations presented in this paper show that variations in frequency and magnitude of events at

  10. Random Modeling of Daily Rainfall and Runoff Using a Seasonal Model and Wavelet Denoising

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chien-ming Chou

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Instead of Fourier smoothing, this study applied wavelet denoising to acquire the smooth seasonal mean and corresponding perturbation term from daily rainfall and runoff data in traditional seasonal models, which use seasonal means for hydrological time series forecasting. The denoised rainfall and runoff time series data were regarded as the smooth seasonal mean. The probability distribution of the percentage coefficients can be obtained from calibrated daily rainfall and runoff data. For validated daily rainfall and runoff data, percentage coefficients were randomly generated according to the probability distribution and the law of linear proportion. Multiplying the generated percentage coefficient by the smooth seasonal mean resulted in the corresponding perturbation term. Random modeling of daily rainfall and runoff can be obtained by adding the perturbation term to the smooth seasonal mean. To verify the accuracy of the proposed method, daily rainfall and runoff data for the Wu-Tu watershed were analyzed. The analytical results demonstrate that wavelet denoising enhances the precision of daily rainfall and runoff modeling of the seasonal model. In addition, the wavelet denoising technique proposed in this study can obtain the smooth seasonal mean of rainfall and runoff processes and is suitable for modeling actual daily rainfall and runoff processes.

  11. Understanding the Rainfall Daily Climatology of Northwestern Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brito-Castillo, L.

    2007-05-01

    Maximum monthly precipitation (MMP) over northwestern Mexico is not concurrent because it occurs in different months from July through September. However, instead of occurring progressively from one month to the next as latitude increases, as it might be logic since rains move progressively from south to north as monsoon develops, MMP occurs in July in latitudes of Jalisco state, then MMP shifts to August more to the north in latitudes of Nayarit state and along the eastern coast of the Gulf of California, then it occurs in July in higher latitudes through the main axis of the Sierra Madre Occidental (SMO), and finally MMP shifts to September to the west in the California Peninsula. The maximum monthly streamflow occurs in a similar pattern as MMP does but one month later. When daily rainfall climatology of the region is calculated, i.e. the long-term mean per day from stations with more than 20 years of data between 1940 and 2004, it is possible to understand why the behavior of MMP occurs in a July-August-July pattern from south to north. Preliminary results indicate that at latitudes of Nayarit state normal frequent storms with abundant rains develop at the end of July and through the August. These rains sum to the rains that move from the south to the north, as monsoon develops increasing the volume of precipitations at those latitudes in August. To the east crossing the SMO through northwestern Zacatecas state maximum volume of precipitations also is observed in August. However, in higher latitudes it is not observed any increment of rains in August and consequently maximum volume of precipitations occurs in July. To understand the dynamics of the rains at the latitudes of Nayarit state it results necessary to investigate the source of these local rains and explain why the increase of precipitations in August is limited at those latitudes.

  12. Gridded daily Indian monsoon rainfall for 14 seasons: Merged TRMM and IMD gauge analyzed values

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Ashis K Mitra; I M Momin; E N Rajagopal; S Basu; M N Rajeevan; T N Krishnamurti

    2013-10-01

    Indian monsoon is an important component of earth’s climate system. Daily rainfall data for longer period is vital to study components and processes related to Indian monsoon. Daily observed gridded rainfall data covering both land and adjoining oceanic regions are required for numerical model validation and model development for monsoon. In this study, a new gridded daily Indian rainfall dataset at 1° × 1° latitude/longitude resolution covering 14 monsoon seasons (1998–2011) are described. This merged satellite gauge rainfall dataset (NMSG) combines TRMM TMPA rainfall estimates with gauge information from IMD gridded data. Compared to TRMM and GPCP daily rainfall data, the current NMSG daily data has more information due to inclusion of local gauge analysed values. In terms of bias and skill scores this dataset is superior to other daily rainfall datasets. In a mean climatological sense and also for anomalous monsoon seasons, this merged satellite gauge data brings out more detailed features of monsoon rainfall. The difference of NMSG and GPCP looks significant. This dataset will be useful to researchers for monsoon intraseasonal studies and monsoon model development research.

  13. Simulation of mosquitoes population dynamic based on rainfall and average daily temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widayani, H.; Seprianus, Nuraini, N.; Arum, J.

    2014-02-01

    This paper proposed rainfall and average daily temperature approximation functions using least square method with trigonometry polynomial. Error value from this method is better than Fast Fourier Transform method. This approximation is used to accommodate climatic factors into deterministic model of mosquitoes population by constructing a carrying capacity function which contains rainfall and average daily temperature functions. We develop a mathematical model for mosquitoes population dynamic which formulated by Yang et al (2010) with dynamic parameter of a daily rainfall as well as temperature on that model. Two fixed points, trivial and non-trivial, are obtained when constant entomological parameters assumed. Basic offspring number, Q0 as mosquitoes reproduction parameter is constructed. Non-trivial fixed point is stable if and only if Q0 > 1. Numerical simulation shown the dynamics of mosquitoes population significantly affected by rainfall and average daily temperature function.

  14. COMBINATION OF ECMWF REANALYZED DAILY RAINFALL AND PENTAD CMAP IN CHINA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    In this study, 16 combinations of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) reanalyzed daily rainfall and the pentad CMAP in China for the period 1980-1993(1 May-31 Dec.) were calculated. Correlation analysis was used to roughly evaluate daily rainfall for the whole of China and a combination of RPC (rotated principal component) and wavelet analyses was applied to data on observed and combined daily rainfall to obtain a detailed evaluation of the quality of these combined datasets in 6 selected major rainfall regions of eastern China. The results showed that except for intraweekly fluctuation, the best combination was roughly similar to or accorded well with observation in the aspects of space variation patterns and long period rainfall fluctuations related to monsoon onset and serious meteorologic disasters, indicating that this combination yielded better values of long term daily mean and standard deviation through the pentad CMAP (CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation), and can also represent rainfall fluctuations through the reanalyzed daily rainfall.

  15. COMBINATION OF ECMWF REANALYZED DAILY RAINFALL AND PENTAD CMAP IN CHINA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    崔茂常; 朱海

    2001-01-01

    In this study, 16 combinations of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) reanalyzed daily rainfall and the pentad CMAP in China for the period 1980- 1993( 1May - 31 Dec. ) were calculated. Correlation analysis was used to roughly evaluate daily rainfall for the whole of China and a combination of RPC (rotated principal component) and wavelet analyses was applied to data on observed and combined daily rainfall to obtain a detailed evaluation of the quality of these combined datasets in 6 selected major rainfall regions of eastern China. The results showed that except for intraweekly fluctuation, the best combination was roughly similar to or accorded well with observation in the aspects of space variation patterns and long period rainfall fluctuations related to monsoon onset and serious meteorologic disasters, indicating that this combination yielded better values of long term daily mean and standard deviation through the pentad CMAP ( CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation), and can also represent rainfall fluctuations through the reanalyzed daily rainfall.

  16. Power-law scaling in daily rainfall patterns and consequences in urban stream discharges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Jeryang; Krueger, Elisabeth H.; Kim, Dongkyun; Rao, Suresh C.

    2016-04-01

    Poissonian rainfall has been frequently used for modelling stream discharge in a catchment at the daily scale. Generally, it is assumed that the daily rainfall depth is described by memoryless exponential distribution which is transformed to stream discharge, resulting in an analytical pdf for discharge [Gamma distribution]. While it is true that catchment hydrological filtering processes (censored by constant rate ET losses, and first-order recession) increases "memory", reflected in 1/f noise in discharge time series. Here, we show that for urban watersheds in South Korea: (1) the observation of daily rainfall depths follow power-law pdfs, and spectral slopes range between 0.2 ~ 0.4; and (2) the stream discharge pdfs have power-law tails. These observation results suggest that multiple hydro-climatic factors (e.g., non-stationarity of rainfall patterns) and hydrologic filtering (increasing impervious area; more complex urban drainage networks) influence the catchment hydrologic responses. We test the role of such factors using a parsimonious model, using different types of daily rainfall patterns (e.g., power-law distributed rainfall depth with Poisson distribution in its frequency) and urban settings to reproduce patterns similar to those observed in empirical records. Our results indicate that fractality in temporally up-scaled rainfall, and the consequences of large extreme events are preserved as high discharge events in urbanizing catchments. Implications of these results to modeling urban hydrologic responses and impacts on receiving waters are discussed.

  17. Estimate of annual daily maximum rainfall and intense rain equation for the Formiga municipality, MG, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovana Mara Rodrigues Borges

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge of the probabilistic behavior of rainfall is extremely important to the design of drainage systems, dam spillways, and other hydraulic projects. This study therefore examined statistical models to predict annual daily maximum rainfall as well as models of heavy rain for the city of Formiga - MG. To do this, annual maximum daily rainfall data were ranked in decreasing order that best describes the statistical distribution by exceedance probability. Daily rainfall disaggregation methodology was used for the intense rain model studies and adjusted with Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF and Exponential models. The study found that the Gumbel model better adhered to the data regarding observed frequency as indicated by the Chi-squared test, and that the exponential model best conforms to the observed data to predict intense rains.

  18. Relationships between Rainy Days, Mean Daily Intensity, and Seasonal Rainfall over the Koyna Catchment during 1961–2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Nandargi

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available There are limitations in using monthly rainfall totals in studies of rainfall climatology as well as in hydrological and agricultural investigations. Variations in rainfall may be considered to result from frequency changes in the daily rainfall of the respective regime. In the present study, daily rainfall data of the stations inside the Koyna catchment has been analysed for the period of 1961–2005 to understand the relationship between the rain and rainy days, mean daily intensity (MDI and seasonal rainfall over the catchment on monthly as well as seasonal scale. Considering the topographical location of the catchment, analysis of seasonal rainfall data of 8 stations suggests that a linear relationship fits better than the logarithmic relationship in the case of seasonal rainfall versus mean daily intensity. So far as seasonal rainfall versus number of rainy days is considered, the logarithmic relationship is found to be better.

  19. Daily rainfall variability over northeastern Argentina in the La Plata River basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García, Norberto O; Pedraza, Raúl A

    2008-12-01

    We did a brief description of the climatic behavior and after this we analyzed the temporal variation in the total number of days a year with rainfall and the number of days a year with rainfall above the 100 mm threshold at the rain gauging stations in northeastern Argentina south of the La Plata River basin. The results show an increase both in the frequency of daily rainfall, especially during the winter season, and the frequency of days with heavy rainfall starting in the early 1970s. The increase in frequency of occurrence is more significant in the case of heavy rainfall. The annual maximum rainfall was calculated for periods of 1, 3, 5, 7, and 10 consecutive days at regional rain gauging stations for the respective historical periods, and the rain intensity-duration-return period curves (IDT) were determined on a frequency analysis. The IDT curves were compared with rainfall intensity-duration data of critical storms occurring in the last decades. We noticed that the rain intensities of critical storms (mostly convective) widely exceeded the intensities given by the 100-year IDT curves, particularly for short durations. The increase in both the frequency of heavy rainfall occurrence and rain intensity from the 1970s onward shows an increase in frequency and intensity of the meso-scale convective systems in the region resulting from climatic change. These systems tend to produce rainfall of very high intensity that is spatially concentrated and which generally produces significant floods in the local rivers.

  20. Comparison of Two Stochastic Daily Rainfall Models and their Ability to Preserve Multi-year Rainfall Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamal Chowdhury, AFM; Lockart, Natalie; Willgoose, Garry; Kuczera, George; Kiem, Anthony; Parana Manage, Nadeeka

    2016-04-01

    Stochastic simulation of rainfall is often required in the simulation of streamflow and reservoir levels for water security assessment. As reservoir water levels generally vary on monthly to multi-year timescales, it is important that these rainfall series accurately simulate the multi-year variability. However, the underestimation of multi-year variability is a well-known issue in daily rainfall simulation. Focusing on this issue, we developed a hierarchical Markov Chain (MC) model in a traditional two-part MC-Gamma Distribution modelling structure, but with a new parameterization technique. We used two parameters of first-order MC process (transition probabilities of wet-to-wet and dry-to-dry days) to simulate the wet and dry days, and two parameters of Gamma distribution (mean and standard deviation of wet day rainfall) to simulate wet day rainfall depths. We found that use of deterministic Gamma parameter values results in underestimation of multi-year variability of rainfall depths. Therefore, we calculated the Gamma parameters for each month of each year from the observed data. Then, for each month, we fitted a multi-variate normal distribution to the calculated Gamma parameter values. In the model, we stochastically sampled these two Gamma parameters from the multi-variate normal distribution for each month of each year and used them to generate rainfall depth in wet days using the Gamma distribution. In another study, Mehrotra and Sharma (2007) proposed a semi-parametric Markov model. They also used a first-order MC process for rainfall occurrence simulation. But, the MC parameters were modified by using an additional factor to incorporate the multi-year variability. Generally, the additional factor is analytically derived from the rainfall over a pre-specified past periods (e.g. last 30, 180, or 360 days). They used a non-parametric kernel density process to simulate the wet day rainfall depths. In this study, we have compared the performance of our

  1. Spatial Interpolation of Daily Rainfall Data for Local Climate Impact Assessment over Greater Sydney Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xihua Yang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents spatial interpolation techniques to produce finer-scale daily rainfall data from regional climate modeling. Four common interpolation techniques (ANUDEM, Spline, IDW, and Kriging were compared and assessed against station rainfall data and modeled rainfall. The performance was assessed by the mean absolute error (MAE, mean relative error (MRE, root mean squared error (RMSE, and the spatial and temporal distributions. The results indicate that Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW method is slightly better than the other three methods and it is also easy to implement in a geographic information system (GIS. The IDW method was then used to produce forty-year (1990–2009 and 2040–2059 time series rainfall data at daily, monthly, and annual time scales at a ground resolution of 100 m for the Greater Sydney Region (GSR. The downscaled daily rainfall data have been further utilized to predict rainfall erosivity and soil erosion risk and their future changes in GSR to support assessments and planning of climate change impact and adaptation in local scale.

  2. EAST ASIA SUMMER MONSOON ONSET DATE CALCULATED FROM OBSERVED, REANALYZED AND COMBINED DAILY RAINFALL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    In this paper, the East Asia summer monsoon onset date lines in East China are calculated by the definition similar to the traditional one, with the ECMWF reanalyzed 850 hPa daily wind and observed, reanalyzed and combined daily rainfall during 1980 ~ 1993. To make the onset date line as close as possible to the previous work, the earliest onset date limits have to be applied for the regions with different latitude and the daily mean datasets have to be smoothed by space before calculation, therefore their space-resolution is reduced to about 3° longitude ×1° latitude. The results show that the multiyear mean summer monsoon onset date lines are quite similar to each other. Compared with the one from the reanalysis, the 14-year average onset date line form combination is obviously improved in the southern Sichuan Basin and the correlation between observed and combined onset date is also slightly higher over the Huaihe valley and Northeast China. Since daily rainfall combination also improved the long term daily mean and standard deviation through the pentad CMAP, if no better daily dataset is available, such a kind of daily rainfall combination can be used to get reasonable result in the Indian monsoon region without sufficient observatories or over the North Pacific without any ground observation at all in future study.

  3. Prediction of daily rainfall by a hybrid wavelet-season-neuro technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altunkaynak, Abdusselam; Nigussie, Tewodros Assefa

    2015-10-01

    Accurate daily rainfall prediction is required for accurate streamflow prediction, flooding risk analysis, constructing a reliable flood control and early warning system. However, because of its nonlinearity, prediction of daily rainfall with high accuracy and long prediction lead time is difficult. There are many daily rainfall prediction methods in the literature, but they are known to yield inaccurate predictions with short lead time, require many physical parameters and involve complicated mathematical equations with huge computational burden. Recently, artificial neural network has been used for predicting rainfall with the objective of addressing the above mentioned problems. But still, the accuracy has not been satisfactory and predictions are with short lead time. In this study, two methods called combined season-multilayer perceptron (SAS-MP) and hybrid wavelet-season-multilayer perceptron (W-SAS-MP) were developed to enhance prediction accuracy and extend prediction lead time of daily rainfall up to 5 days by using data from two stations in Turkey. These two models were compared with the stand-alone multilayer perceptron and another most commonly used method called combined wavelet-multilayer perceptron (W-MP). The performances of the models were evaluated by using coefficient of determination, coefficient of efficiency and root mean squared error. The SAS-MP model was found to be better than W-MP in most cases, except lead time day 1, where W-MP performed better. Throughout all the lead times, however, the hybrid W-SAS-MP model performed best with CE values of 0.911 and 0.909, respectively, for prediction lead time of 1 day and 0.588 and 0.570, respectively, for prediction lead time of 5 days at Stations 17836 and 17837, respectively, at the model testing (validation) phase. Therefore, W-SAS-MP can be an appropriate tool for enhancing daily rainfall prediction accuracy and extend prediction lead time.

  4. Daily disaggregation of simulated monthly flows using different rainfall datasets in southern Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D.A. Hughes

    2015-09-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: There are substantial regional differences in the success of the monthly hydrological model, which inevitably affects the success of the daily disaggregation results. There are also regional differences in the success of using global rainfall data sets (Climatic Research Unit (CRU datasets for monthly, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration African Rainfall Climatology, version 2 (ARC2 satellite data for daily. The overall conclusion is that the disaggregation method presents a parsimonious approach to generating daily flow simulations from existing monthly simulations and that these daily flows are likely to be useful for some purposes (e.g. water quality modelling, but less so for others (e.g. peak flow analysis.

  5. Evaluating regional climate models for simulating sub-daily rainfall extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortés-Hernández, Virginia Edith; Zheng, Feifei; Evans, Jason; Lambert, Martin; Sharma, Ashish; Westra, Seth

    2016-09-01

    Sub-daily rainfall extremes are of significant societal interest, with implications for flash flooding and the design of urban stormwater systems. It is increasingly recognised that extreme subdaily rainfall will intensify as a result of global temperature increases, with regional climate models (RCMs) representing one of the principal lines of evidence on the likely magnitude and spatiotemporal characteristics of these changes. To evaluate the ability of RCMs to simulate subdaily extremes, it is common to compare the simulated statistical characteristics of the extreme rainfall events with those from observational records. While such analyses are important, they provide insufficient insight into whether the RCM reproduces the correct underlying physical processes; in other words, whether the model "gets the right answers for the right reasons". This paper develops a range of metrics to assess the performance of RCMs in capturing the physical mechanisms that produce extreme rainfall. These metrics include the diurnal and seasonal cycles, relationship between rainfall intensity and temperature, temporal scaling, and the spatial structure of extreme rainfall events. We evaluate a high resolution RCM—the Weather Research Forecasting model—over the Greater Sydney region, using three alternative parametrization schemes. The model shows consistency with the observations for most of the proposed metrics. Where differences exist, these are dependent on both the rainfall duration and model parameterization strategy. The use of physically meaningful performance metrics not only enhances the confidence in model simulations, but also provides better diagnostic power to assist with future model improvement.

  6. Producing Daily and Embedded Hourly Rainfall Data Using a Novel Weather Generator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ching-Pin Tung

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The number of worldwide extreme drought and flood events has risen significantly in recent years. Many studies confer that climate change may cause more intensive and extreme events. Simulating the impact of climate change often requires weather data as inputs to assessment models. Stochastic weather generators have been developed to produce weather data with the same temporal resolution based on the outputs of GCMs. Reservoir simulation normally uses operational rules in daily and hourly time steps for water supply and flood reduction, respectively. Simulating consecutive drought and flood events simultaneously requires a weather generator to produce different temporal resolution data. This work develops a continuous weather generator to generate daily and hourly precipitation data for regular wet days and severe storms, respectively. Daily rainfall data is generated for regular wet days using Exponential distribution or Weibull distribution, while the total rainfall data for severe storms is generated using the Pearson type III or Log Pearson type III distribution. Moreover, hourly rainfall is determined based on generated hyetographs. Simulation results indicate that the proposed continuous weather generator can generate daily and hourly rainfall reasonably. The proposed weather generator is thus highly promising for use in evaluating how climate change impacts reservoir operations that are significantly influenced by more frequent and intensive consecutive drought and flood events.

  7. Extreme Rainfall Events Over Southern Africa: Assessment of a Climate Model to Reproduce Daily Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

    2007-12-01

    It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of a state-of-the-art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. Once the model's ability to reproduce extremes has been assessed, idealised regions of SST anomalies are used to force the model, with the overall aim of investigating the ways in which SST anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. In this paper, results from sensitivity testing of the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model's domain size are firstly presented. Then simulations of current climate from the model, operating in both regional and global mode, are compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Thirdly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes will be assessed, again by a comparison with extremes from the MIRA dataset. Finally, the results from the idealised SST experiments are briefly presented, suggesting associations between rainfall extremes and both local and remote SST anomalies.

  8. Regional frequency analysis of observed sub-daily rainfall maxima over eastern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Hemin; Wang, Guojie; Li, Xiucang; Chen, Jing; Su, Buda; Jiang, Tong

    2017-02-01

    Based on hourly rainfall observational data from 442 stations during 1960-2014, a regional frequency analysis of the annual maxima (AM) sub-daily rainfall series (1-, 2-, 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24-h rainfall, using a moving window approach) for eastern China was conducted. Eastern China was divided into 13 homogeneous regions: Northeast (NE1, NE2), Central (C), Central North (CN1, CN2), Central East (CE1, CE2, CE3), Southeast (SE1, SE2, SE3, SE4), and Southwest (SW). The generalized extreme value performed best for the AM series in regions NE, C, CN2, CE1, CE2, SE2, and SW, and the generalized logistic distribution was appropriate in the other regions. Maximum return levels were in the SE4 region, with value ranges of 80-270 mm (1-h to 24-h rainfall) and 108-390 mm (1-h to 24-h rainfall) for 20- and 100 yr, respectively. Minimum return levels were in the CN1 and NE1 regions, with values of 37-104 mm and 53-140 mm for 20 and 100 yr, respectively. Comparing return levels using the optimal and commonly used Pearson-III distribution, the mean return-level differences in eastern China for 1-24-h rainfall varied from -3-4 mm to -23-11 mm (-10%-10%) for 20-yr events, reaching -6-26 mm (-10%-30%) and -10-133 mm (-10%-90%) for 100-yr events. In view of the large differences in estimated return levels, more attention should be given to frequency analysis of sub-daily rainfall over China, for improved water management and disaster reduction.

  9. Structural break or long memory: an empirical survey on daily rainfall data sets across Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    F. Yusof; Kane, I. L.; Yusop, Z.

    2013-01-01

    A short memory process that encounters occasional structural breaks in mean can show a slower rate of decay in the autocorrelation function and other properties of fractional integrated I (d) processes. In this paper we employed a procedure for estimating the fractional differencing parameter in semiparametric contexts proposed by Geweke and Porter-Hudak (1983) to analyse nine daily rainfall data sets across Malaysia. The results indicate that all the data sets exhibit long ...

  10. Short memory or long memory: an empirical survey of daily rainfall data

    OpenAIRE

    F. Yusof; Kane, I. L.

    2012-01-01

    A short memory process that encounters occasional structural breaks in mean can show a slower rate of decay in the autocorrelation function and other properties of fractional integrated I (d) processes. In this paper we employed a procedure for estimating the fractional differencing parameter in semi parametric contexts proposed by Geweke and Porter-Hudak to analyze nine daily rainfall data sets across Malaysia. The results indicate that all the data sets exhibit lon...

  11. Rainfall variability and extremes over southern Africa: Assessment of a climate model to reproduce daily extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, C. J. R.; Kniveton, D. R.; Layberry, R.

    2009-04-01

    It is increasingly accepted that that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of ability of a state of the art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. The ability of a climate model to simulate current climate provides some indication of how much confidence can be applied to its future predictions. In this paper, simulations of current climate from the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model, in both regional and global mode, are firstly compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. This concentrates primarily on the ability of the model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall variability over southern Africa. Secondly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes will

  12. Comparing flow duration curve and rainfall-runoff modelling for predicting daily runoff in ungauged catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yongqiang; Vaze, Jai; Chiew, Francis H. S.; Li, Ming

    2015-06-01

    Predicting daily runoff time series in ungauged catchments is both important and challenging. For the last few decades, the rainfall-runoff (RR) modelling approach has been the method of choice. There have been very few studies reported in literature which attempt to use flow duration curve (FDC) to predict daily runoff time series. This study comprehensively compares the two approaches using an extensive dataset (228 catchments) for a large region of south-eastern Australia and provides guidelines for choosing the suitable method. For each approach we used the nearest neighbour method and two weightings - a 5-donor simple mathematical average (SA) and a 5-donor inverse-distance weighting (5-IDW) - to predict daily runoff time series. The results show that 5-IDW was noticeably better than a single donor to predict daily runoff time series, especially for the FDC approach. The RR modelling approach calibrated against daily runoff outperformed the FDC approach for predicting high flows. The FDC approach was better at predicting medium to low flows in traditional calibration against the Nash-Sutcliffe-Efficiency or Root Mean Square Error, but when calibrated against a low flow objective function, both the FDC and rainfall-runoff models performed equally well in simulating the low flows. These results indicate that both methods can be further improved to simulate daily hydrographs describing the range of flow metrics in ungauged catchments. Further studies should be carried out for improving the accuracy of predicted FDC in ungauged catchments, including improving the FDC model structure and parameter fitting.

  13. Sub-Daily Runoff Simulations with Parameters Inferred at the Daily Time Scale: Impacts of the temporal distribution of rainfall in parameter inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds Puga, Jose Eduardo; Halldin, Sven; Xu, Chong-Yu; Seibert, Jan

    2016-04-01

    Flood forecasting at sub-daily time scales are commonly required in regions where sub-daily observational data are not available. This has led to approaches to estimate model parameters at sub-daily time scales from data with a lower time resolution. Reynolds et al. (2015) show that parameters inferred at one time scale (e.g., daily) may be used directly for runoff simulations at other time scales (e.g., 1 h) when the modelling time step is the same and sufficiently small during calibration and simulation periods. Their approach produced parameter distributions at daily and sub-daily time scales that were similar and relatively constant across the time scales. The transfer of parameter values across time scales resulted in small model-performance decrease as opposed to when the parameter sets inferred at their respective time scale were used. This decrease in performance may be attributed to the degree of information lost, in terms of the physical processes occurring at short time scales, when the rainfall-runoff data used during the parameter-inference phase become coarser. It is not yet fully understood how the aggregation (or disaggregation) of the rainfall-runoff data affects parameter inference. In this study we analyse the impacts of the temporal distribution of rainfall for inferring model parameters at a coarse time scale and their effects in model performance when they are used at finer time scales, where data may not be available for calibration. The motivation is to improve runoff predictions and model performance at sub-daily time scales when parameters inferred at the daily scale are used for simulating at these scales. First, we calibrated the HBV-light conceptual hydrological model at the daily scale, but modelled discharge internally in 1-h time steps using 3 disaggregation procedures of the rainfall data. This was done in an attempt to maximise the information content of the input data used for calibration at the daily scale. One disaggregation

  14. Spatial patterns in the oxygen isotope composition of daily rainfall in the British Isles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tyler, Jonathan J.; Jones, Matthew; Arrowsmith, Carol; Allott, Tim; Leng, Melanie J.

    2016-09-01

    Understanding the modern day relationship between climate and the oxygen isotopic composition of precipitation (δ18OP) is crucial for obtaining rigorous palaeoclimate reconstructions from a variety of archives. To date, the majority of empirical studies into the meteorological controls over δ18OP rely upon daily, event scale, or monthly time series from individual locations, resulting in uncertainties concerning the representativeness of statistical models and the mechanisms behind those relationships. Here, we take an alternative approach by analysing daily patterns in δ18OP from multiple stations across the British Isles ( n = 10-70 stations). We use these data to examine the spatial and seasonal heterogeneity of regression statistics between δ18OP and common predictors (temperature, precipitation amount and the North Atlantic Oscillation index; NAO). Temperature and NAO are poor predictors of daily δ18OP in the British Isles, exhibiting weak and/or inconsistent effects both spatially and between seasons. By contrast δ18OP and rainfall amount consistently correlate at most locations, and for all months analysed, with spatial and temporal variability in the regression coefficients. The maps also allow comparison with daily synoptic weather types, and suggest characteristic δ18OP patterns, particularly associated with Cylonic Lamb Weather Types. Mapping daily δ18OP across the British Isles therefore provides a more coherent picture of the patterns in δ18OP, which will ultimately lead to a better understanding of the climatic controls. These observations are another step forward towards developing a more detailed, mechanistic framework for interpreting stable isotopes in rainfall as a palaeoclimate and hydrological tracer.

  15. Downscaling site rainfall from daily to 11.25-minute resolution: event, diurnal, seasonal and decadal controls on downscaling parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    McIntyre, Neil; Shi, Shirley; Onof, Christian

    2016-04-01

    Downscaling site rainfall from daily to sub-daily resolution is often approached using the multiplicative discrete random cascade (MDRC) class of models, with mixed success. Questions in any application - for MDRCs or indeed other classes of downscaling model - is to what extent and in what way are model parameters functions of rainfall event type and/or large scale climate controls for example those linked to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). These questions underlie the applicability of downscaling models for analysing rainfall and hydrological extremes, in particular for synthesising long-term historical or future sub-daily extremes conditional on historic or projected daily data. Coastal Queensland, Australia, is subject to combinations of multiple weather systems, including tropical cyclones, blocking systems, convective storms, frontal systems and ENSO influences. Using 100 years of fine resolution data from two gauges in central Brisbane, microcanonical MDRC models are fitted to data from 1 day to 11.25 minutes in seven cascade levels, each level dividing the time interval and its rainfall volume into two sub-intervals. Each cascade level involves estimating: the probabilities that all the rainfall observed in a time interval is concentrated in only the first of the two sub-intervals and that all the rainfall observed in a time interval is concentrated in only the second of the two sub-intervals; and also two beta distribution parameters that define the probability of a given division of the rainfall into both sub-intervals. These parameters are found to vary systematically with time of day, rainfall volume, event temporal structure, month of year, and ENSO anomaly. Reasonable downscaling performance is achieved (in terms of replicating extreme values of 11.25 minute rainfall given the observed daily data) by including the parameter dependence on the rainfall volume and event structure, although particular applications may justify development of more

  16. Hydrological daily rainfall-runoff simulation with BTOPMC model and comparison with Xin'anjiang model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Hong-jun BAO; Li-li WANG; Zhi-jia LI; Lin-na ZHAO; Guo-ping ZHANG

    2010-01-01

    A grid-based distributed hydrological model, the Block-wise use of TOPMODEL (BTOPMC), which was developed from the original TOPMODEL, was used for hydrological daily rainfall-runoff simulation. In the BTOPMC model, the runoff is explicitly calculated on a cell-by-cell basis, and the Muskingum-Cunge flow concentration method is used. In order to test the model's applicability, the BTOPMC model and the Xin'anjiang model were applied to the simulation of a humid watershed and a semi-humid to semi-arid watershed in China. The model parameters were optimized with the Shuffle Complex Evolution (SCE-UA) method. Results show that both models can effectively simulate the daily hydrograph in humid watersheds, but that the BTOPMC model performs poorly in semi-humid to semi-arid watersheds. The excess-infiltration mechanism should be incorporated into the BTOPMC model to broaden the model's applicability.

  17. Daily rainfall statistics of TRMM and CMORPH: A case for trans-boundary Gandak River basin

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Brijesh Kumar; Kanhu Charan Patra; Venkat Lakshmi

    2016-07-01

    Satellite precipitation products offer an opportunity to evaluate extreme events (flood and drought)for areas where rainfall data are not available or rain gauge stations are sparse. In this study, dailyprecipitation amount and frequency of TRMM 3B42V.7 and CMORPH products have been validatedagainst daily rain gauge precipitation for the monsoon months (June–September or JJAS) from 2005–2010 in the trans-boundary Gandak River basin. The analysis shows that the both TRMM and CMORPHcan detect rain and no-rain events, but they fail to capture the intensity of rainfall.The detection of precipitation amount is strongly dependent on the topography. In the plains areas,TRMM product is capable of capturing high-intensity rain events but in the hilly regions, it underestimatesthe amount of high-intensity rain events. On the other hand, CMORPH entirely fails to capturethe high-intensity rain events but does well with low-intensity rain events in both hilly regions as well asthe plain region. The continuous variable verification method shows better agreement of TRMM rainfallproducts with rain gauge data. TRMM fares better in the prediction of probability of occurrenceof high-intensity rainfall events, but it underestimates intensity at high altitudes. This implies thatTRMM precipitation estimates can be used for flood-related studies only after bias adjustment for thetopography.

  18. A Bivariate Mixed Distribution with a Heavy-tailed Component and its Application to Single-site Daily Rainfall Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Chao ..; Singh, Vijay P.; Mishra, Ashok K.

    2013-02-06

    This paper presents an improved brivariate mixed distribution, which is capable of modeling the dependence of daily rainfall from two distinct sources (e.g., rainfall from two stations, two consecutive days, or two instruments such as satellite and rain gauge). The distribution couples an existing framework for building a bivariate mixed distribution, the theory of copulae and a hybrid marginal distribution. Contributions of the improved distribution are twofold. One is the appropriate selection of the bivariate dependence structure from a wider admissible choice (10 candidate copula families). The other is the introduction of a marginal distribution capable of better representing low to moderate values as well as extremes of daily rainfall. Among several applications of the improved distribution, particularly presented here is its utility for single-site daily rainfall simulation. Rather than simulating rainfall occurrences and amounts separately, the developed generator unifies the two processes by generalizing daily rainfall as a Markov process with autocorrelation described by the improved bivariate mixed distribution. The generator is first tested on a sample station in Texas. Results reveal that the simulated and observed sequences are in good agreement with respect to essential characteristics. Then, extensive simulation experiments are carried out to compare the developed generator with three other alternative models: the conventional two-state Markov chain generator, the transition probability matrix model and the semi-parametric Markov chain model with kernel density estimation for rainfall amounts. Analyses establish that overall the developed generator is capable of reproducing characteristics of historical extreme rainfall events and is apt at extrapolating rare values beyond the upper range of available observed data. Moreover, it automatically captures the persistence of rainfall amounts on consecutive wet days in a relatively natural and easy way

  19. Bayesian objective classification of extreme UK daily rainfall for flood risk applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Little

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available In this study we describe an objective classification scheme for extreme UK daily precipitation to be used in flood risk analysis applications. We create a simplified representation of the spatial layout of extreme events based on a new digital archive of UK rainfall. This simplification allows a Bayesian clustering algorithm to compress these representations down to eight prototypical patterns of extreme falls. These patterns are then verified against a five-class, manual, subjective typing scheme, produced independently using known meteorological mechanisms, isohyetal maps and additional descriptive text from the archive. Compared against the manual scheme, the new objective scheme can reproduce the known meteorological conditions, both in terms of spatial layout and seasonal timing, and is shown to be of hydrological relevance when matched to several notable flooding events in the past century. Furthermore, it is computationally simple and straightforward to apply in classifying future extreme rainfall events. We discuss the practical use of this new typing scheme in flood simulations and climate change applications.

  20. Minimizing uncertainty of daily rainfall interpolation over large catchments through realistic sampling of anisotropic correlogram parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gyasi-Agyei, Yeboah

    2016-04-01

    It has been established that daily rainfall gauged network density is not adequate for the level of hydrological modelling required of large catchments involving pollutant and sediment transport, such as the catchments draining the coastal regions of Queensland, Australia, to the sensitive Great Barrier Reef. This paper seeks to establish a link between the spatial structure of radar and gauge rainfall for improved interpolation of the limited gauged data over a grid or functional units of catchments in regions with or without radar records. The study area is within Mt. Stapylton weather radar station range, a 128 km square region for calibration and validation, and the Brisbane river catchment for validation only. Two time periods (2000-01-01 to 2008-12-31 and 2009-01-01 to 2015-06-30) were considered, the later period for calibration when radar records were available and both time periods for validation without regard to radar information. Anisotropic correlograms of both the gauged and radar data were developed and used to establish the linkage required for areas without radar records. The maximum daily temperature significantly influenced the distributional parameters of the linkage. While the gauged, radar and sampled correlogram parameters reproduced the mean estimates similarly using leave-one-out cross-validation of Ordinary Kriging, the gauged parameters overestimated the standard deviation (SD) which reflects uncertainty by over 91% of cases compared with the radar or the sampled parameter sets. However, the distribution of the SD generated by the radar and the sampled correlogram parameters could not be distinguished, with a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test p-value of 0.52. For the validation case with the catchment, the percentage overestimation of SD by the gauged parameter sets decreased to 81.2% and 87.1% for the earlier and later time periods, respectively. It is observed that the extreme wet days' parameters and statistics were fairly widely distributed

  1. Structural break or long memory: an empirical survey on daily rainfall data sets across Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Yusof

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available A short memory process that encounters occasional structural breaks in mean can show a slower rate of decay in the autocorrelation function and other properties of fractional integrated I (d processes. In this paper we employed a procedure for estimating the fractional differencing parameter in semiparametric contexts proposed by Geweke and Porter-Hudak (1983 to analyse nine daily rainfall data sets across Malaysia. The results indicate that all the data sets exhibit long memory. Furthermore, an empirical fluctuation process using the ordinary least square (OLS-based cumulative sum (CUSUM test for the break date was applied. Break dates were detected in all data sets. The data sets were partitioned according to their respective break date, and a further test for long memory was applied for all subseries. Results show that all subseries follows the same pattern as the original series. The estimate of the fractional parameters d1 and d2 on the subseries obtained by splitting the original series at the break date confirms that there is a long memory in the data generating process (DGP. Therefore this evidence shows a true long memory not due to structural break.

  2. Short memory or long memory: an empirical survey of daily rainfall data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Yusof

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available A short memory process that encounters occasional structural breaks in mean can show a slower rate of decay in the autocorrelation function and other properties of fractional integrated I (d processes. In this paper we employed a procedure for estimating the fractional differencing parameter in semi parametric contexts proposed by Geweke and Porter-Hudak to analyze nine daily rainfall data sets across Malaysia. The results indicate that all the data sets exhibit long memory. Furthermore, an empirical fluctuation process using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS based cumulative sum (CUSUM test with F-statistic for the break date were applied, break dates were detected in all data sets. The data sets were partitioned according to their respective break date and further test for long memory was applied for all subseries. Results show that all subseries follows the same pattern with the original series. The estimate of the fractional parameters d1 and d2 on the subseries obtained by splitting the original series at the break-date, confirms that there is a long memory in the DGP. Therefore this evidence shows a true long memory not due to structural break.

  3. Short memory or long memory: an empirical survey of daily rainfall data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yusof, F.; Kane, I. L.

    2012-10-01

    A short memory process that encounters occasional structural breaks in mean can show a slower rate of decay in the autocorrelation function and other properties of fractional integrated I (d) processes. In this paper we employed a procedure for estimating the fractional differencing parameter in semi parametric contexts proposed by Geweke and Porter-Hudak to analyze nine daily rainfall data sets across Malaysia. The results indicate that all the data sets exhibit long memory. Furthermore, an empirical fluctuation process using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) based cumulative sum (CUSUM) test with F-statistic for the break date were applied, break dates were detected in all data sets. The data sets were partitioned according to their respective break date and further test for long memory was applied for all subseries. Results show that all subseries follows the same pattern with the original series. The estimate of the fractional parameters d1 and d2 on the subseries obtained by splitting the original series at the break-date, confirms that there is a long memory in the DGP. Therefore this evidence shows a true long memory not due to structural break.

  4. Structural break or long memory: an empirical survey on daily rainfall data sets across Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yusof, F.; Kane, I. L.; Yusop, Z.

    2013-04-01

    A short memory process that encounters occasional structural breaks in mean can show a slower rate of decay in the autocorrelation function and other properties of fractional integrated I (d) processes. In this paper we employed a procedure for estimating the fractional differencing parameter in semiparametric contexts proposed by Geweke and Porter-Hudak (1983) to analyse nine daily rainfall data sets across Malaysia. The results indicate that all the data sets exhibit long memory. Furthermore, an empirical fluctuation process using the ordinary least square (OLS)-based cumulative sum (CUSUM) test for the break date was applied. Break dates were detected in all data sets. The data sets were partitioned according to their respective break date, and a further test for long memory was applied for all subseries. Results show that all subseries follows the same pattern as the original series. The estimate of the fractional parameters d1 and d2 on the subseries obtained by splitting the original series at the break date confirms that there is a long memory in the data generating process (DGP). Therefore this evidence shows a true long memory not due to structural break.

  5. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Africa Rainfall Climatology Version 2.0 (ARC2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — As of 2012, a new gridded, daily 30 year precipitation estimation dataset centered over Africa at 0.1? spatial resolution has been developed. The Africa Rainfall...

  6. Statistical analysis of yearly series of maximum daily rainfall in Spain. Analisis estadistico de las series anuales de maximas lluvias diarias en Espaa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferrer Polo, J.; Ardiles Lopez, K. L. (CEDEX, Ministerio de Obras Publicas, Transportes y Medio ambiente, Madrid (Spain))

    1994-01-01

    Work on the statistical modelling of maximum daily rainfalls is presented, with a view to estimating the quantiles for different return periods. An index flood approach has been adopted in which the local quantiles are a result of rescaling a regional law using the mean of each series of values, that is utilized as a local scale factor. The annual maximum series have been taken from 1.545 meteorological stations over a 30 year period, and these have been classified into 26 regions defined according to meteorological criteria, the homogeneity of wich has been checked by means of a statistical analysis of the coefficients of variation of the samples,using the. An estimation has been made of the parameters for the following four distribution models: Two Component Extreme Value (TCEV); General Extreme Value (GEV); Log-Pearson III (LP3); and SQRT-Exponential Type Distribution of Maximum. The analysis of the quantiles obtained reveals slight differences in the results thus detracting from the importance of the model selection. The last of the above-mentioned distribution has been finally chosen, on the basis of the following: it is defined with fewer parameters it is the only that was proposed specifically for the analysis of daily rainfall maximums; it yields more conservative results than the traditional Gumbel distribution for the high return periods; and it is capable of providing a good description of the main sampling statistics concerning the right-hand tail of the distribution, a fact that has been checked with Montecarlo's simulation techniques. The choice of a distribution model with only two parameters has led to the selection of the regional coefficient of variation as the only determining parameter for the regional quantiles. This has permitted the elimination of the quantiles discontinuity of the classical regional approach, thus smoothing the values of that coefficient by means of an isoline plan on a national scale.

  7. Analysis of Temporal and Spatial Distribution Patterns of Rainfall in Wuzhou in Recent 30 Years%梧州市近30年降雨量时空变化分布分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    朱颖洁

    2016-01-01

    The interpolation effect of Kriging,IDW,Spline and Trend method is analyzed,and the suitable ones have been chosen for the analysis of the rainfall in Wuzhou,and the distribution characteristics of time and space change of seasonal and annual rainfall in wuzhou are studied.Results show that:Kriging,IDW and Spline method are good for spatial interpolation for seasonal and annual rain-fall.rainfall decreasesfrom north to south in spring;rainfall decreases from northwest to southeast in summer;rainfall decreases from south,northwest to central in autumn;rainfall decreases from north and south to central and eastern in winter;annual rainfall decreases from north and south to west,southeast.most of Wuzhou rainfall increasesin spring;rainfall increasesin Wuzhou in summer;rainfall in-creasesin most of Wuzhou in autumn;rainfall increases in most of Wuzhou in winter;annual rainfall increases in most of Wuzhou.rain-fallrelatively decreases in the 80s of the 20th century;rainfall in the 90s of the 20th century is more than that in the 80s;rainfall in the 10s of the 21st century is less than that in the 90s of the 20st century.%分析Kriging、IDW、Spline和Trend法的插值效果,选出适合梧州市降雨量的空间插值方法,分析梧州市季年降雨量的时空变化分布特征。结果表明Kriging、IDW和Spline法在季年降雨量空间插值中的应用效果较好;春季降雨量分布自北部向南部递减,夏季降雨量分布自西北部向东南部和北部递减,秋季降雨量分布自南部、西北部向中部递减,冬季降雨量分布自北部与南部向中部和东部递减,年降雨量分布自北部与南部向西部和东南部递减。梧州市大部地区四季和年降雨量呈增加趋势;梧州市20世纪80年代降雨总体相对较少,90年代降雨较80年代增多,21世纪前10年降雨较90年代有所减少。

  8. Trends in rainfall erosivity in NE Spain at annual, seasonal and daily scales, 1955–2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Beguería

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall erosivity refers to the ability of precipitation to erode soil, and depends on characteristics such as its total volume, duration, and intensity and amount of energy released by raindrops. Despite the relevance of rainfall erosivity for soil degradation prevention, very few studies have addressed its spatial and temporal variability. In this study the time variation of rainfall erosivity in the Ebro Valley (NE Spain is assessed for the period 1955–2006. The results show a general decrease in annual and seasonal rainfall erosivity, which is explained by a decrease of very intense rainfall events whilst the frequency of moderate and low events increased. This trend is related to prevailing positive conditions of the main atmospheric teleconnection indices affecting the West Mediterranean, i.e. the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, the Mediterranean Oscillation (MO and the Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO.

  9. 近30年我国南方区域持续性暴雨过程的分类研究%Classification of Persistent Heavy Rainfall Events over Southern China during Recent 30 Years

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    汪汇洁; 孙建华; 卫捷; 赵思雄

    2014-01-01

    The persistent heavy rainfall events (PHREs) over southern China during 1981−2011 are classified by utilizing the daily precipitation data at 752 stations in China. PHREs in the Yangtze and Huaihe River Valley (YHRV) and PHREs in South China (SC) during 1981–2011 are selected on the basis of the following criteria: More than 10 grids [0.25°(latitude)×0.25°(longitude)] in the area with daily precipitation of more than 50 mm lasting more than five days and rainband coincidence degree greater than 20%. The statistics reveal that 31 PHREs in the YHRV were concentrated between mid-June to mid-July with an average duration of 8.29 days, whereas 34 non-typhoon PHREs in SC were concentrated in June and July with an average duration of 6.24 days. Moreover, the frequency and intensity of these two types changed in decadal growth. PHREs affected by the typhoon systems in the YHRV were concentrated between mid-July and early August. Those occurring in SC were concentrated from July to September, and their frequency and intensity have increased since 2000. Objective pattern correlation statistics are used to classify and discuss the non-typhoon PHREs in detail. PHREs in the YHRV are divided into three types: (A) main rainbelt to the south of the Yangtze River (YR), (B) main rainbelt to the north of the YR, (C) main rainbelt along the YR, and PHREs in SC are classified into two types: (E) main rain belt to the east of the Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau and (F) main rainbelt located over the Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau and Guangxi Province. On the basis of such classification, the mechanisms of PHREs will be discussed in future studies.%利用中国站点日降水资料对1981~2011年我国南方地区区域持续性暴雨(PHREs)进行了分类研究。按照区域内至少连续5 d 或5 d 以上有不小于10个格点[分辨率0.25º(纬度)×0.25º(经度)]出现大于等于50 mm降水且相邻两日雨带重合率不小于20%的标准,采用客观分析的方法

  10. ANALYSIS OF THE STATISTICAL BEHAVIOUR OF DAILY MAXIMUM AND MONTHLY AVERAGE RAINFALL ALONG WITH RAINY DAYS VARIATION IN SYLHET, BANGLADESH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. M. J. HASAN

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Climate, one of the major controlling factors for well-being of the inhabitants in the world, has been changing in accordance with the natural forcing and manmade activities. Bangladesh, the most densely populated countries in the world is under threat due to climate change caused by excessive use or abuse of ecology and natural resources. This study checks the rainfall patterns and their associated changes in the north-eastern part of Bangladesh mainly Sylhet city through statistical analysis of daily rainfall data during the period of 1957 - 2006. It has been observed that a good correlation exists between the monthly mean and daily maximum rainfall. A linear regression analysis of the data is found to be significant for all the months. Some key statistical parameters like the mean values of Coefficient of Variability (CV, Relative Variability (RV and Percentage Inter-annual Variability (PIV have been studied and found to be at variance. Monthly, yearly and seasonal variation of rainy days also analysed to check for any significant changes.

  11. Threshold detection for the generalized Pareto distribution: Review of representative methods and application to the NOAA NCDC daily rainfall database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langousis, Andreas; Mamalakis, Antonios; Puliga, Michelangelo; Deidda, Roberto

    2016-04-01

    In extreme excess modeling, one fits a generalized Pareto (GP) distribution to rainfall excesses above a properly selected threshold u. The latter is generally determined using various approaches, such as nonparametric methods that are intended to locate the changing point between extreme and nonextreme regions of the data, graphical methods where one studies the dependence of GP-related metrics on the threshold level u, and Goodness-of-Fit (GoF) metrics that, for a certain level of significance, locate the lowest threshold u that a GP distribution model is applicable. Here we review representative methods for GP threshold detection, discuss fundamental differences in their theoretical bases, and apply them to 1714 overcentennial daily rainfall records from the NOAA-NCDC database. We find that nonparametric methods are generally not reliable, while methods that are based on GP asymptotic properties lead to unrealistically high threshold and shape parameter estimates. The latter is justified by theoretical arguments, and it is especially the case in rainfall applications, where the shape parameter of the GP distribution is low; i.e., on the order of 0.1-0.2. Better performance is demonstrated by graphical methods and GoF metrics that rely on preasymptotic properties of the GP distribution. For daily rainfall, we find that GP threshold estimates range between 2 and 12 mm/d with a mean value of 6.5 mm/d, while the existence of quantization in the empirical records, as well as variations in their size, constitute the two most important factors that may significantly affect the accuracy of the obtained results.

  12. 30 Years of Archaeological Research

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    China’s archaeology has achieved remarkable outcomes during the 30 years after the carrying out of the reform and opening up policy. In theoretical research, various archaeological theories and genres have been introduced to China, which have influenced the development of the archaeology of China.

  13. Spatial interpolation of daily rainfall at catchment scale: a case study of the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments, Belgium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Ly

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Spatial interpolation of precipitation data is of great importance for hydrological modelling. Geostatistical methods (krigings are widely used in spatial interpolation from point measurement to continuous surfaces. However, the majority of existing geostatistical algorithms are available only for single-moment data. The first step in kriging computation is the semi-variogram modelling which usually uses only one variogram model for all-moment data. The objective of this paper was to develop different algorithms of spatial interpolation for daily rainfall on 1 km2 regular grids in the catchment area and to compare the results of geostatistical and deterministic approaches. In this study, we used daily rainfall data from 70 raingages in the hilly landscape of the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments in Belgium (2908 km2. This area lies between 35 and 693 m in elevation and consists of river networks, which are tributaries of the Meuse River. For geostatistical algorithms, Cressie's Approximate Weighted Least Squares method was used to fit seven semi-variogram models (logarithmic, power, exponential, Gaussian, rational quadratic, spherical and penta-spherical to daily sample semi-variogram on a daily basis. Seven selected raingages were used to compare the interpolation performance of these algorithms applied to many degenerated-raingage cases. Spatial interpolation with the geostatistical and Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW algorithms outperformed considerably interpolation with the Thiessen polygon that is commonly used in various hydrological models. Kriging with an External Drift (KED and Ordinary Cokriging (OCK presented the highest Root Mean Square Error (RMSE between the geostatistical and IDW methods. Ordinary Kriging (ORK and IDW were considered to be the best methods, as they provided smallest RMSE value for nearly all cases.

  14. A classification of the sea level pressure daily fields in southern South America: an application to daily rainfall in the Pampas region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penalba, Olga; Bettolli, Maria Laura

    2010-05-01

    The Pampas covers Argentina's most productive agricultural land, extending more than 1600 km in the heartland of the country. The impact of climate adversities on agricultural activities makes it necessary to determine to what extent climate spatial and temporal variability is responsible for crop yields and to generate elements to monitor, estimate impacts and design an alert system. Local atmospheric conditions depend, among other factors, on the major scale fields. Consequently, an objective classification of daily circulation fields in the South of South America is proposed using a long database. Daily rainfalls within the Argentine Humid Pampas are also investigated in connection to the weather type categories. Daily mean sea level pressure (SLP) fields corresponding to the NCEP_Reanalysis 2 data provided by the NCEP-NCAR were used as representative of atmospheric circulation at low levels which is of great importance in determining moisture advection in the region. The period of study was 1979-1999. The chosen domain extends from 15°S to 60°S and from 40°W to 90° W on a 2.5° latitude-longitude grid. This domain extends over the Pacific and the Atlantic Oceans and the Andes Mountains, all of which have a significant influence on the atmospheric circulation over South America. The analyzed seasons correspond to summer (December-January- February) and winter (June-July-August). Daily rainfall series located in the core region for growing different crops in the Argentine Humid Pampas were also used. These series were provided by the Argentine National Meteorological Service. Cluster analysis was performed coupled with Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to determine the atmospheric circulation patterns. PCA was used as a synthesis method and the cluster analysis was carried out in the subspace given by the leading unrotated principal components. The ‘k-means' partitioning method with Euclidean distance was used. The choice of the optimal number of clusters

  15. Simulation of the variability and extremes of daily rainfall during the Indian summer monsoon for present and future times in a global time-slice experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    May, W. [Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, 2100 Copenhagen (Denmark)

    2004-03-01

    In this study the simulation of the variability and extremes of daily rainfall during the Indian summer monsoon for the present-day and the future climate is investigated. This is done on the basis of a global time-slice experiment (TSL) with the ECHAM4 atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) at a high horizontal resolution of T106. The first time-slice (period: 1970-1999) represents the present-day climate and the second (2060-2089) the future climate. Moreover, observational rainfall data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP, 1997-2002) and rainfall data from the ECMWF re-analysis (ERA, 1958-2001) are considered. ERA reveals serious deficiencies in its representation of the variability and extremes of daily rainfall during the Indian summer monsoon. These are mainly a severe overestimation of the frequency of wet days over the oceans and in the Himalayas, where also the rainfall intensity is overestimated. Further, ERA shows unrealistically heavy rainfall events over the tropical Indian Ocean. The ECHAM4 atmospheric GCM at a horizontal resolution of T106, on the other hand, simulates the variability and extremes of daily rainfall in good agreement with the observations. The only marked deficiencies are an underestimation of the rainfall intensity on the west coast of the Indian peninsula and in Bangladesh, an overestimation over the tropical Indian Ocean, due to an erroneous northwestward extension of the tropical convergence zone, and an overestimation of the frequency of wet days in Tibet. Further, heavy rainfall events are relatively strong in the centre of the Indian peninsula. For the future, TSL predicts large increases in the rainfall intensity over the tropical Indian Ocean as well as in northern Pakistan and northwest India, but decreases in southern Pakistan, in the centre of the Indian peninsula, and over the western part of the Bay of Bengal. The frequency of wet days is markedly increased over the tropical Indian Ocean and

  16. Analysis of daily rainfall of the Sahelian weather-station Linguère (Senegal) - Trends and its impacts on the local population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strommer, Gabriel; Brandt, Martin; Diongue-Niang, Aida; Samimi, Cyrus

    2013-04-01

    In the 20th century, the West African Sahel has been a hot-spot of climatic changes. After severe drought-events in the 1970s and 1980s which were followed by a significant drop in annual precipitation, rainfall seems to increase again during the past years. Most studies are based on monthly or yearly datasets. However, many processes and events which are important for the local population depending on rainfall are not related to monthly or annual precipitation but are related to intra-annual, often daily scales. During this study, interviews with farmers and herders were conducted in the Senegalese Sahel. The results show, that wet months with unsuitably distributed precipitation can cause more harm than bringing benefits - depending on the phenological stage of the plants. Agricultural crops for example need rainfall breaks. On the other hand, natural herbaceous vegetation tolerates longer wet periods. So, a wet season can still hide dry spells that alter crops and vegetation development. Based on the results of these interviews, this study developed two indexes, one for local farmers and one for herders separately, showing if the year was favorable for them or not. The indexes integrate the length of rainy seasons, intensity and frequency of rainfall events, breaks between events and also the previous year. This way, each year is assigned to one of 5 classes. Using daily rainfall data of the Linguère weather-station (from the Senegal Meteorological Service, ANACIM), trends of the indexes from 1945 to 2002 are detected and compared to results of the interviews. Statistically relating the indexes to yearly and monthly data demonstrates, how much information can be gathered by those datasets. Furthermore, changes in intensity and frequency are related with yearly and monthly sums showing relations between daily data and annual sums. For example, a high correlation (r=0.73) between the amount of rain days (> 1 mm) and the annual rainfall is observed in Linguère.

  17. Chance-constrained overland flow modeling for improving conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations based on scaling representation of sub-daily rainfall variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Jing-Cheng; Huang, Guohe; Huang, Yuefei; Zhang, Hua; Li, Zhong; Chen, Qiuwen

    2015-08-15

    Lack of hydrologic process representation at the short time-scale would lead to inadequate simulations in distributed hydrological modeling. Especially for complex mountainous watersheds, surface runoff simulations are significantly affected by the overland flow generation, which is closely related to the rainfall characteristics at a sub-time step. In this paper, the sub-daily variability of rainfall intensity was considered using a probability distribution, and a chance-constrained overland flow modeling approach was proposed to capture the generation of overland flow within conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations. The integrated modeling procedures were further demonstrated through a watershed of China Three Gorges Reservoir area, leading to an improved SLURP-TGR hydrologic model based on SLURP. Combined with rainfall thresholds determined to distinguish various magnitudes of daily rainfall totals, three levels of significance were simultaneously employed to examine the hydrologic-response simulation. Results showed that SLURP-TGR could enhance the model performance, and the deviation of runoff simulations was effectively controlled. However, rainfall thresholds were so crucial for reflecting the scaling effect of rainfall intensity that optimal levels of significance and rainfall threshold were 0.05 and 10 mm, respectively. As for the Xiangxi River watershed, the main runoff contribution came from interflow of the fast store. Although slight differences of overland flow simulations between SLURP and SLURP-TGR were derived, SLURP-TGR was found to help improve the simulation of peak flows, and would improve the overall modeling efficiency through adjusting runoff component simulations. Consequently, the developed modeling approach favors efficient representation of hydrological processes and would be expected to have a potential for wide applications.

  18. Evaluation of statistical and rainfall-runoff models for predicting historical daily streamflow time series in the Des Moines and Iowa River watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, William H.; Knight, Rodney R.; Eash, David A.; Kasey J. Hutchinson,; Linhart, S. Mike; Christiansen, Daniel E.; Archfield, Stacey A.; Over, Thomas M.; Kiang, Julie E.

    2015-08-24

    Daily records of streamflow are essential to understanding hydrologic systems and managing the interactions between human and natural systems. Many watersheds and locations lack streamgages to provide accurate and reliable records of daily streamflow. In such ungaged watersheds, statistical tools and rainfall-runoff models are used to estimate daily streamflow. Previous work compared 19 different techniques for predicting daily streamflow records in the southeastern United States. Here, five of the better-performing methods are compared in a different hydroclimatic region of the United States, in Iowa. The methods fall into three classes: (1) drainage-area ratio methods, (2) nonlinear spatial interpolations using flow duration curves, and (3) mechanistic rainfall-runoff models. The first two classes are each applied with nearest-neighbor and map-correlated index streamgages. Using a threefold validation and robust rank-based evaluation, the methods are assessed for overall goodness of fit of the hydrograph of daily streamflow, the ability to reproduce a daily, no-fail storage-yield curve, and the ability to reproduce key streamflow statistics. As in the Southeast study, a nonlinear spatial interpolation of daily streamflow using flow duration curves is found to be a method with the best predictive accuracy. Comparisons with previous work in Iowa show that the accuracy of mechanistic models with at-site calibration is substantially degraded in the ungaged framework.

  19. Geostatistical interpolation of daily rainfall at catchment scale: the use of several variogram models in the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments, Belgium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Ly

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Spatial interpolation of precipitation data is of great importance for hydrological modelling. Geostatistical methods (kriging are widely applied in spatial interpolation from point measurement to continuous surfaces. The first step in kriging computation is the semi-variogram modelling which usually used only one variogram model for all-moment data. The objective of this paper was to develop different algorithms of spatial interpolation for daily rainfall on 1 km2 regular grids in the catchment area and to compare the results of geostatistical and deterministic approaches. This study leaned on 30-yr daily rainfall data of 70 raingages in the hilly landscape of the Ourthe and Ambleve catchments in Belgium (2908 km2. This area lies between 35 and 693 m in elevation and consists of river networks, which are tributaries of the Meuse River. For geostatistical algorithms, seven semi-variogram models (logarithmic, power, exponential, Gaussian, rational quadratic, spherical and penta-spherical were fitted to daily sample semi-variogram on a daily basis. These seven variogram models were also adopted to avoid negative interpolated rainfall. The elevation, extracted from a digital elevation model, was incorporated into multivariate geostatistics. Seven validation raingages and cross validation were used to compare the interpolation performance of these algorithms applied to different densities of raingages. We found that between the seven variogram models used, the Gaussian model was the most frequently best fit. Using seven variogram models can avoid negative daily rainfall in ordinary kriging. The negative estimates of kriging were observed for convective more than stratiform rain. The performance of the different methods varied slightly according to the density of raingages, particularly between 8 and 70 raingages but it was much different for interpolation using 4 raingages. Spatial interpolation with the geostatistical and

  20. Investigating the impact of land-use land-cover change on Indian summer monsoon daily rainfall and temperature during 1951–2005 using a regional climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Halder

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Daily moderate rainfall events, that constitute a major portion of seasonal summer monsoon rainfall over central India, have decreased significantly during the period 1951 till 2005. Mean and extreme near surface daily temperature during the monsoon season have also increased by a maximum of 1–1.5 °C. Using simulations made with a high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM4 with prescribed vegetation cover of 1950 and 2005, it is demonstrated that part of the above observed changes in moderate rainfall events and temperature have been caused by land-use land-cover change (LULCC which is mostly anthropogenic. Model simulations show that the increase in seasonal mean and extreme temperature over central India coincides with the region of decreased (increased forest (crop cover. The results also show that land-use land-cover alone causes warming in the extremes of daily mean and maximum temperatures by maximum of 1–1.2 °C, that is comparable with the observed increasing trend in the extremes. Decrease (increase in forest (crop cover reduces the evapotranspiration over land and large-scale convective instability, apart from decreasing the moisture convergence. These factors act together not only in reducing the moderate rainfall events over central India but also the amount of rainfall in that category, significantly. This is the most interesting result of this study. Additionally, the model simulations are repeated by removing the warming trend in sea surface temperatures. As a result, there is enhanced warming at the surface and decrease in moderate rainfall events over central India. Results from the additional experiments corroborate our initial findings and confirm the contribution of land-use land-cover change on increase in daily mean and extreme temperature and decrease in moderate rainfall events. This study not only demonstrates the important implications of LULCC over India, but also shows the necessity for inclusion of projected

  1. Chance-constrained overland flow modeling for improving conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations based on scaling representation of sub-daily rainfall variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Han, Jing-Cheng [State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience & Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Huang, Guohe, E-mail: huang@iseis.org [Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Huang, Yuefei [State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience & Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China); Zhang, Hua [College of Science and Engineering, Texas A& M University — Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi, TX 78412-5797 (United States); Li, Zhong [Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Chen, Qiuwen [Center for Eco-Environmental Research, Nanjing Hydraulics Research Institute, Nanjing 210029 (China)

    2015-08-15

    Lack of hydrologic process representation at the short time-scale would lead to inadequate simulations in distributed hydrological modeling. Especially for complex mountainous watersheds, surface runoff simulations are significantly affected by the overland flow generation, which is closely related to the rainfall characteristics at a sub-time step. In this paper, the sub-daily variability of rainfall intensity was considered using a probability distribution, and a chance-constrained overland flow modeling approach was proposed to capture the generation of overland flow within conceptual distributed hydrologic simulations. The integrated modeling procedures were further demonstrated through a watershed of China Three Gorges Reservoir area, leading to an improved SLURP-TGR hydrologic model based on SLURP. Combined with rainfall thresholds determined to distinguish various magnitudes of daily rainfall totals, three levels of significance were simultaneously employed to examine the hydrologic-response simulation. Results showed that SLURP-TGR could enhance the model performance, and the deviation of runoff simulations was effectively controlled. However, rainfall thresholds were so crucial for reflecting the scaling effect of rainfall intensity that optimal levels of significance and rainfall threshold were 0.05 and 10 mm, respectively. As for the Xiangxi River watershed, the main runoff contribution came from interflow of the fast store. Although slight differences of overland flow simulations between SLURP and SLURP-TGR were derived, SLURP-TGR was found to help improve the simulation of peak flows, and would improve the overall modeling efficiency through adjusting runoff component simulations. Consequently, the developed modeling approach favors efficient representation of hydrological processes and would be expected to have a potential for wide applications. - Highlights: • We develop an improved hydrologic model considering the scaling effect of rainfall. • A

  2. An alternative approach to characterize time series data: Case study on Malaysian rainfall data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Radhakrishnan, P. [Faculty of Information Science and Technology, Multimedia University, Melaka 75450 (Malaysia)] e-mail: radha.krishnan@mmu.edu.my; Dinesh, S. [Faculty of Engineering and Technology, Multimedia University, Melaka 75450 (Malaysia)

    2006-01-01

    This paper focuses on the characterization of time series rainfall data to understand the behavior in the Malaysian rainfall data. An analysis of the rainfall behavior of different time periods is also conducted. The rainfall data is rounded. A bar with a width of 12 pixels is drawn for each day in the data. The length of the bars drawn is equal to the corresponding rainfall value. Each bar is separated by a space of 2 pixels. Bars for data from different year are stored in different rows. Morphological opening is performed on the barcode image obtained, using line kernels of increasing length. Connected component-labeling algorithm is implemented on the resulting images to identify the individual bar codes and to compute the number of bars remaining after the opening process. A daily rainfall record for the duration of 30 years, obtained from the Melaka Meteorological Station, is analyzed. The results provide characterization of behavior in daily rainfall data.

  3. McBride's operation for hallux valgus can be used in patients older than 30 years

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gebuhr, Peter Henrik; Soelberg, M; Larsen, T;

    1992-01-01

    . In patients older than 30 years there were significant reductions. In patients younger than 30 years, the reduction was not significant. The rate of problems with daily footwear was reduced from 36 of 46 feet to 13 of 38 feet. The authors noted few problems and a high rate of satisfied patients, despite...

  4. Lessons from 30 Years of Flight Software

    Science.gov (United States)

    McComas, David C.

    2015-01-01

    This presentation takes a brief historical look at flight software over the past 30 years, extracts lessons learned and shows how many of the lessons learned are embodied in the Flight Software product line called the core Flight System (cFS). It also captures the lessons learned from developing and applying the cFS.

  5. Adaptionism-30 years after Gould and Lewontin

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Rasmus

    2009-01-01

    Gould and Lewontin's 30-year-old critique of adaptionism fundamentally changed the discourse of evolutionary biology. However, with the influx of new ideas and scientific traditions from genomics into evolutionary biology, the old adaptionist controversies are being recycled in a new context......, it is still difficult to construct strong arguments in favor of adaptation. However, despite the difficulties in establishing scientific arguments in favor of specific historic evolutionary events, there is still much to learn about evolution from genomic data....

  6. Solid waste 30-year volume summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Valero, O.J.; Armacost, L.L.; DeForest, T.J.; Templeton, K.J.; Williams, N.C.

    1994-06-01

    A 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site is described in this report. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste that will require treatment, storage, and disposal at Hanford`s Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during the 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The data used to complete this document were collected from onsite and offsite waste generators who currently, or are planning to, ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site. An analysis of the data suggests that over 300,000 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed at Hanford`s SWOC over the next 30 years. An extensive effort was made this year to collect this information. The 1993 solid waste forecast was used as a starting point, which identified approximately 100,000 m{sup 3} of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste to be sent to the SWOC. After analyzing the forecast waste volume, it was determined that additional waste was expected from the tank waste remediation system (TWRS), onsite decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) activities, and onsite remedial action (RA) activities. Data presented in this report establish a starting point for solid waste management planning. It is recognized that forecast estimates will vary (typically increasing) as facility planning and missions continue to change and become better defined, but the information presented still provides useful insight into Hanford`s future solid waste management requirements.

  7. 30 Years of HIV/AIDS

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2011-06-02

    Dr. Kevin A. Fenton, Director of CDC's National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention, discusses the 30 year anniversary of the first reported cases of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, or AIDS. Dr. Fenton also reflects on the HIV/AIDS epidemic – past, present, and future.  Created: 6/2/2011 by National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention (NCHHSTP).   Date Released: 6/2/2011.

  8. Test anxiety inventory: 30 years later.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szafranski, Derek D; Barrera, Terri L; Norton, Peter J

    2012-11-01

    Research suggests that test anxiety is associated with a number of maladaptive factors. The majority of test anxiety research includes the Test Anxiety Inventory (TAI) as a primary outcome variable. However, the TAI was normed on college undergraduates in 1980. The academic landscape has altered in a variety of ways in the past 30 years, which may result in out-of-date norms. This study examined changes in TAI scores in college undergraduates (n =437) as well as convergent validity with measures of trait anxiety and academic performance. Results indicated increases in TAI scores for females while holding constant for males. Additionally, females and males displayed positive correlations between the TAI and state-trait anxiety inventory, while only females displayed a significant negative correlation between the TAI and grade point average. Data provide evidence of changes in TAI scores. As a result, researchers should be careful when drawing conclusions based on original TAI norms, especially in the case of female undergraduates.

  9. Hydrological Response to ~30 years of Agricultural Surface Water Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giulia Sofia

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Amongst human practices, agricultural surface-water management systems represent some of the largest integrated engineering works that shaped floodplains during history, directly or indirectly affecting the landscape. As a result of changes in agricultural practices and land use, many drainage networks have changed producing a greater exposure to flooding with a broad range of impacts on society, also because of climate inputs coupling with the human drivers. This research focuses on three main questions: which kind of land use changes related to the agricultural practices have been observed in the most recent years (~30 years? How does the influence on the watershed response to land use and land cover changes depend on the rainfall event characteristics and soil conditions, and what is their related significance? The investigation presented in this work includes modelling the water infiltration due to the soil properties and analysing the distributed water storage offered by the agricultural drainage system in a study area in Veneto (north-eastern Italy. The results show that economic changes control the development of agro-industrial landscapes, with effects on the hydrological response. Key elements that can enhance or reduce differences are the antecedent soil conditions and the climate characteristics. Criticalities should be expected for intense and irregular rainfall events, and for events that recurrently happen. Agricultural areas might be perceived to be of low priority when it comes to public funding of flood protection, compared to the priority given to urban ones. These outcomes highlight the importance of understanding how agricultural practices can be the driver of or can be used to avoid, or at least mitigate, flooding. The proposed methods can be valuable tools in evaluating the costs and benefits of the management of water in agriculture to inform better policy decision-making.

  10. Rainfall Characterization In An Arid Area

    OpenAIRE

    Bazaraa, A. S.; Ahmed, Shamim

    1991-01-01

    The objective of this work is to characterize the rainfall in Doha which lies in an arid region. The rainfall data included daily rainfall depth since 1962 and the hyetographs of the individual storms since 1976. The rainfall is characterized by high variability and severe thunderstorms which are of limited geographical extent. Four probability distributions were used to fit the maximum rainfall in 24 hours and the annual rainfall depth. The extreme value distribution was found to have the be...

  11. Economists Evaluate China’s 30 Year Reform

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李明锋

    2008-01-01

    The Guanghua School of Management at Peking Universityorganized a new forum entitled "30 Years of China’s Reform:A Review and Outlook" several months ago,inviting many economists such as Cheng Siwei,Wu Jinglian,Li Yining,Mao Yushi,Zhang Weiying,Justin Lin,Fan Gang,Zhou Qiren,Qian Yingyi and Chen Zhiwu to conduct in-depth analysis and discussion on the issues of widespread concern about 30 Years of China’s Reform.

  12. 30 years of finite-gap integration theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matveev, Vladimir B

    2008-03-28

    The method of finite-gap integration was created to solve the periodic KdV initial problem. Its development during last 30 years, combining the spectral theory of differential and difference operators with periodic coefficients, the algebraic geometry of compact Riemann surfaces and their Jacobians, the Riemann theta functions and inverse problems, had a strong impact on the evolution of modern mathematics and theoretical physics. This article explains some of the principal historical points in the creation of this method during the period 1973-1976, and briefly comments on its evolution during the last 30 years.

  13. Primary Care Psychologists in the Netherlands: 30 Years of Experience

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Derksen, J.J.L.

    2009-01-01

    The primary care psychologist (PCP) in the Netherlands has 30 years of experience. The PCP is a generalist who, in close cooperation with the family physician and other providers of primary health care, has a mindset and manner of working that is largely determined by the context in which the PCP wo

  14. UNCORRECTED TETRALOGY OF FALLOT IN A 30 - YEARS OLD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dihingia

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Tetralogy of Fallot is the most common form of cyanotic congenital heart disease. Survival after the age of 12 years without corrective surgery is rare. We present the case of a 30 year - old man with uncorrected tetralogy of Fallot.

  15. MARKOV CHAIN MODEL FOR PROBABILITY OF DRY, WET DAYS AND STATISTICAL ANALISIS OF DAILY RAINFALL IN SOME CLIMATIC ZONE OF IRAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. SHAHRAKI

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Water scarcity is a major problem in arid and semi-arid areas. The scarcity of water is further stressed by the growing demand due to increase in population growth in developing countries. Climate change and its outcomes on precipitation and water resources is the other problem in these areas. Several models are widely used for modeling daily precipitation occurrence. In this study, Markov Chain Model has been extensively used to study spell distribution. For this purpose, a day period was considered as the optimum length of time. Given the assumption that the Markov chain model is the right model for daily precipitation occurrence, the choice of Markov model order was examined on a daily basis for 4 synoptic weather stations with different climates in Iran (Gorgan, Khorram Abad, Zahedan, Tabrizduring 1978-2009. Based on probability rules, events possibility of sequential dry and wet days, these data were analyzed by stochastic process and Markov Chain method. Then probability matrix was calculated by maximum likelihood method. The possibility continuing2-5days of dry and wet days were calculated. The results showed that the probability maximum of consecutive dry period and climatic probability of dry days has occurred in Zahedan. The probability of consecutive dry period has fluctuated from 73.3 to 100 percent. Climatic probability of occurrence of dry days would change in the range of 70.96 to 100 percent with the average probability of about 90.45 percent.

  16. Social resources and cognitive ageing across 30 years

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gow, Alan J.; Mortensen, Erik Lykke

    2016-01-01

    Background: to examine associations between social resources and cognitive ageing over 30 years. Methods: participants in the Glostrup 1914 Cohort, a year of birth sample, completed a standardarised battery of cognitive ability tests every 10 years from age 50 to 80, summarised as general cognitive...... ability. Participants also provided information concerning a range of social resources, including marital status and living arrangements from age 50, and from age 70, details regarding social support, social contact and loneliness. Results: across the follow-up, participants were less likely to be married...... together (and accounting for sex, education and social class), loneliness was associated with lower cognitive ability level and greater cognitive decline, while married individuals experienced less decline. Conclusions: in a relatively large cohort followed for up to 30 years, marital status and loneliness...

  17. Vertebrate Paleontology in Central America: 30 years of progress

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    Vertebrate paleontology began in Central America in 1858 with the first published records, but the last 30 years have seen remarkable advances. These advances range from new localities, to new taxa to new analyses of diverse data. Central American vertebrate fossils represent all of the major taxonomic groups of vertebrates—fishes, amphibians, reptiles (especially turtles), birds and mammals (mostly xenarthrans, carnivores and ungulates)—but coverage is very uneven, with many groups (especial...

  18. Clinical Analysis of Lung Cancer Patients Younger Than 30 Years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangjie HOU

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Background and objective It is common recognized that young patients of lung cancer have poor prognosis due to relatively higher malignancy and more invasive growth. In the past most studies on young patients of lung cancer selected patients younger than 40 or 45 years old, and there were few clinical materials for younger patients under 30 years. This study retrospectively described the the disease history, stage, treatment and pathology features of lung cancer patients younger than 30 years and aimed to provide references for these patients. Methods Those patients younger than 30 years, once admitted in the General Hospital of the People's Liberation Army for lung cancer from 1993 to date, were sought in medical record system, and 53 patients were found in total. In this group, there were 34 non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC patients and 19 small cell lung cacer (SCLC patients. The male/female ratio was 1.5:1. In the NSCLC patients, there were 27 adenocarcinomas, 6 squamous carcinomas and 1 adenosquamous carcinoma, with no large cell carcinoma involved. In these patients, 12 patients received operations while 38 patients got chemo- and/or radiotherapy and 3 quited any treatment. Results There was no death in hospital, however, in the 12 patients who got operation, only 8 patients got complete resection while 4 patients got palliative resection. Conclusion Lung cancer patients younger than 30 years had a high fraction of adenocarcinoma and small cell type pathologically and most of them were in late stage when presenting with symptoms in hospital and would have a dismal prognosis. The routine health examination and early diagnosis should be emphasized to improve the prognosis of these patients.

  19. The enduring legacy of Alma Ata: 30 years on.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exworthy, Mark

    2008-01-01

    The 1978 Alma Ata conference and declaration was a landmark in defining and providing a direction for primary healthcare. Despite the initial enthusiasm for Alma Ata, its impact appeared to have declined in the 1990s. However, in recent years, there has been a revitalisation of primary healthcare. This article reviews the Alma Ata conference and declaration, assesses its waxing and waning, and examines its recent revival. The paper draws conclusions about the relevance of Alma Ata, 30 years on.

  20. Acta Pharmacologica Sinica:Celebrating 30 years of publishing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jian DING

    2010-01-01

    @@ Acta Pharmacologica Sinica(APS) is now celebrating 30 years of publication.I am happy to summarize what has been accomplished over the past three decades.First I would like to sincerely thank the founding editor-in-chief(1980-2003),Professor Guang-sheng DING.He is well known for his strict-ness,tireless work ethic,and remarkable editing skills.

  1. Transient Unexplained Shock in 30-year-old Trauma Patient

    OpenAIRE

    Rahmani, Farzad; Ebrahimi Bakhtavar, Hanieh; Shahsavari Nia, Kavous; Mohammadi, Neda

    2014-01-01

    Shock as an inadequate tissue perfusion is one of the frequent causes of death in trauma patients. In this context, there are various reasons for hemodynamic instability and shock including hypovolemic (hemorrhagic), obstructive (cardiac tamponade, tension pneumothorax), cardiogenic, neurogenic, and rarely septic. In the present report, a 30-year-old trauma patient with full clinical signs and symptoms of shock referred while had unknown origin; it was finally recognized as anaphylactic shock.

  2. Transient Unexplained Shock in 30-year-old Trauma Patient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmani, Farzad; Ebrahimi Bakhtavar, Hanieh; Shahsavari Nia, Kavous; Mohammadi, Neda

    2014-01-01

    Shock as an inadequate tissue perfusion is one of the frequent causes of death in trauma patients. In this context, there are various reasons for hemodynamic instability and shock including hypovolemic (hemorrhagic), obstructive (cardiac tamponade, tension pneumothorax), cardiogenic, neurogenic, and rarely septic. In the present report, a 30-year-old trauma patient with full clinical signs and symptoms of shock referred while had unknown origin; it was finally recognized as anaphylactic shock.

  3. Gastrointestinal bleeding 30 years after a complicated cholecystectomy

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Thorsten; Brechmann; Wolff; Schmiegel; Volkmar; Nicolas; Markus; Reiser

    2010-01-01

    Gastrointestinal bleeding from small-bowel varices is a rare and difficult to treat complication of portal hypertension. We describe the case of a 79-year-old female patient with recurrent severe hemorrhage from smallbowel varices 30 years after a complicated cholecystectomy. When double balloon enteroscopy was unsuccessful to reach the site of bleeding, a rendezvous approach was favored with intraoperative endoscopy. Active bleeding from varices within a biliodigestive anastomosis was found and controlled ...

  4. An Objective Approach for Prediction of Daily Summer Monsoon Rainfall over Orissa (India) due to Interaction of Mesoscale and Large-scale Synoptic Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohapatra, M.; Mohanty, U. C.

    2007-09-01

    Orissa State, a meteorological subdivision of India, lies on the east coast of India close to north Bay of Bengal and to the south of the normal position of the monsoon trough. The monsoon disturbances such as depressions and cyclonic storms mostly develop to the north of 15° N over the Bay of Bengal and move along the monsoon trough. As Orissa lies in the southwest sector of such disturbances, it experiences very heavy rainfall due to the interaction of these systems with mesoscale convection sometimes leading to flood. The orography due to the Eastern Ghat and other hill peaks in Orissa and environs play a significant role in this interaction. The objective of this study is to develop an objective statistical model to predict the occurrence and quantity of precipitation during the next 24 hours over specific locations of Orissa, due to monsoon disturbances over north Bay and adjoining west central Bay of Bengal based on observations to up 0300 UTC of the day. A probability of precipitation (PoP) model has been developed by applying forward stepwise regression with available surface and upper air meteorological parameters observed in and around Orissa in association with monsoon disturbances during the summer monsoon season (June-September). The PoP forecast has been converted into the deterministic occurrence/non-occurrence of precipitation forecast using the critical value of PoP. The parameters selected through stepwise regression have been considered to develop quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) model using multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) for categorical prediction of precipitation in different ranges such as 0.1 10, 11 25, 26 50, 51 100 and >100 mm if the occurrence of precipitation is predicted by PoP model. All the above models have been developed based on data of summer monsoon seasons of 1980 1994, and data during 1995 1998 have been used for testing the skill of the models. Considering six representative stations for six homogeneous regions

  5. Plus or minus 30 years in the language sciences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newport, Elissa L

    2010-07-01

    The language sciences—Linguistics, Psycholinguistics, and Computational Linguistics—have not been broadly represented at the Cognitive Science Society meetings of the past 30 years, but they are an important part of the heart of cognitive science. This article discusses several major themes that have dominated the controversies and consensus in the study of language and suggests the most pressing issues of the future. These themes include differences among the language science disciplines in their view of numbers and symbols and of modular and distributed cognition, and the need for an increasing prominence of questions concerning language and the brain.

  6. [Pacemaker implantation in dogs: results of the last 30 years].

    Science.gov (United States)

    François, L; Chetboul, V; Nicolle, A; Carlos, C; Borenstein, N; Pouchelon, J L

    2004-07-01

    Pacemaker implantation in veterinary practice is still not well known and remains uncommon. However, this technique is the only possible way to cure animals suffering from symptomatic bradycardia whose state does not improve with a medical treatment. In most cases, the use of pacemakers in veterinary medicine leads to the disappearance of the clinical and electrocardiographic signs. This retrospective study concerning the last 30 years draws up an evaluation of the improvements, advantages and drawbacks of this method. Moreover, this study allows the understanding of the evolution of pacemakers' use in veterinary cardiology.

  7. Relações entre precipitações intensas de diferentes durações para desagregação da chuva diária em Santa Catarina Relationships between intense rainfall of different durations for disaggregation of daily rainfall in Santa Catarina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Álvaro J. Back

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Com este trabalho objetivou-se determinar as relações entre precipitações de diferentes durações para o Estado de Santa Catarina. Foram estabelecidas as séries de máximas anuais de chuva com duração de 5 a 1440 min de treze estações pluviográficas de Santa Catarina. Para cada duração foram estimadas as precipitações máximas com período de retorno de 2 a 100 anos, com base na distribuição de Gumbel-Chow. A relação média entre a chuva de 24 h e a chuva de um dia independe do período de retorno, com média para o estado de 1,17. Ao se analisar o horário da leitura da precipitação diária verificou-se que esta relação varia de 1,12 a 1,20. Em referência à chuva de 1 h em relação à chuva de 24 h observam-se valores significativamente inferiores aos normalmente usados.The aim of this study was to determine the relationships between rainfalls of different durations for the State of Santa Catarina. The series of annual maximum rainfall were defined with a duration of 5 to 1440 min of thirteen precipitation stations in Santa Catarina. For each duration maximum rainfall were estimated with a return period of 2 to 100 years, based on the Gumbel-Chow distribution. The relationship between the average rainfall of 24 h and one day rain does not depend on the return period, with an average of 1.17 for the State. When analyzing the time reading the daily precipitation it was messed that this ratio varies from 1.12 to 1.20. In relation to 1 h of rain over 24 h of rain it was observed values significantly lower than those normally used.

  8. What Has 30 Years of HIV Vaccine Research Taught Us?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Esparza

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available When HIV was discovered and established as the cause of AIDS in 1983–1984, many people believed that a vaccine would be rapidly developed. However, 30 years have passed and we are still struggling to develop an elusive vaccine. In trying to achieve that goal, different scientific paradigms have been explored. Although major progress has been made in understanding the scientific basis for HIV vaccine development, efficacy trials have been critical in moving the field forward. Major lessons learned are: the development of an HIV vaccine is an extremely difficult challenge; the temptation of just following the fashion should be avoided; clinical trials are critical, especially large-scale efficacy trials; HIV vaccine research will require long-term commitment; and sustainable collaborations are needed to accelerate the development of an HIV vaccine. Concrete actions must be implemented with the sense of urgency imposed by the severity of the AIDS epidemic.

  9. What Has 30 Years of HIV Vaccine Research Taught Us?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esparza, José

    2013-10-30

    When HIV was discovered and established as the cause of AIDS in 1983-1984, many people believed that a vaccine would be rapidly developed. However, 30 years have passed and we are still struggling to develop an elusive vaccine. In trying to achieve that goal, different scientific paradigms have been explored. Although major progress has been made in understanding the scientific basis for HIV vaccine development, efficacy trials have been critical in moving the field forward. Major lessons learned are: the development of an HIV vaccine is an extremely difficult challenge; the temptation of just following the fashion should be avoided; clinical trials are critical, especially large-scale efficacy trials; HIV vaccine research will require long-term commitment; and sustainable collaborations are needed to accelerate the development of an HIV vaccine. Concrete actions must be implemented with the sense of urgency imposed by the severity of the AIDS epidemic.

  10. Interactions between libraries and technology over the past 30 years

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Greifeneder, Elke; Seadle, Michael; Lynch, Clifford

    2012-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to look back on the last 30 years of technology development for libraries. Design/methodology/approach – The paper presents an interview that took place at the American Library Association Annual Meeting in Anaheim, California. Findings – The paper reveals...... that many of the developments are slow. There are very few really sudden revolutions in social-scale technologies. They do not switch on quickly and cannot be sudden because the installed base is too thin. Originality/value – The paper reveals that there should be some renewed conversation about how...... libraries can help the public. In the early days of the internet libraries played an enormous uncredited role in teaching the adult population about the it. There are some opportunities like that now, and one place where we are starting to see signs of it is digital preservation, not as libraries doing...

  11. Epithelial ovarian carcinoma in women aged below 30 years

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chen Rong; Shen Keng; Wu Ming; Pan Ling-ya; Huang Hui-fang; Yang Jia-xin; Lang Jing-he

    2005-01-01

    Objective: To study the manifestation, pathohistologic type, stage of disease, treatment and outcome of epithelial ovarian carcinoma in women under the age of 30 years.Methods: The 21 cases of epithelial ovarian carcinoma in women aged below 30 years between Jan, 1986 and Mar, 2002 were analyzed retrospectively.Results: The median age at the time of diagnosis was 24 years (range, 16-29 years). All carcinomas occurred after menarche. The most common symptoms were abdominal pain (50%), followed by tympanites (25%) and menstrual disorders (19%). The initial diagnosis was usually made by physical examination, ultrasonography and serum CA125. The mean maximal tumor diameter was 17.6 cm. Ten patients had Stage I disease (5 Ia, 5 Ic), five had Stage Ⅲ disease, and the other six were unknown during staging operation. There were nine mucinous tumors, six serous tumors. Most tumors were well-differentiated and classified as Grade1 in 11 cases, Grade2 in 2 cases, Grade3 in 2 cases, unknown in 6 cases. Optimal and suboptimal cytoreduction was achieved in 14 patients in primary treatment and 5 in recurrent treatment. 8 patients were treated with conservative surgery. 18 patients were treated with chemotherapy and 7 patients had experienced six or more than six courses of chemotherapy. The median follow-up was 50 months (range, 2-192 months). There were 6 deaths, 2 alive with tumor, 11 alive without the disease, 2 losing follow-up. The 3-year survival rate was 89%, and 5-year survival rate was 76%.Conclusion: Young patients with epithelial ovarian carcinoma appeared to have a less aggressive form of the disease and a more favorable prognosis.

  12. 30 years of experience in safe transportation of nuclear materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaneko, K. [Nuclear Fuel Transport Co., Ltd., Tokyo (Japan)

    2004-07-01

    In April 2003, Nuclear Fuel Transport Co., Ltd. (NFT) marked the 30{sup th} anniversary of its founding. NFT was established in 1973 and in 1978, commenced SF transport to the reprocessing plant in Tokai-mura. And then, after making preparations to transport nuclear materials to the various facilities at the Nuclear Fuel Cycle Center in Rokkasho-mura, NFT successfully started transportation of LLW (low level waste) to Rokksho-mura's LLW disposal center in 1992, domestic land transportation of HLW returned from overseas to the HLW storage center in 1995, domestic land transportation of natural hexafluoride delivered from overseas to the uranium enrichment plant in 1996, and transportation of SF to the reprocessing plant in 2000. NFT has realized an annual SF transportation capacity of 300 MTU and is currently making great company wide efforts to meet the Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant's future SF annual reprocessing capacity of 800MTU. At the end of FY2003, NFT had successfully transported 560 casks (about 1,730 MTU) of SF in more than 200 voyages in total, about 160,000 drums of LLW in around 100 voyages in total. This paper introduces the record of safe transport and its experience over the past 30 years and prospect for future transport business.

  13. Rainfall statistics changes in Sicily

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Arnone

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Changes in rainfall characteristics are one of the most relevant signs of current climate alterations. Many studies have demonstrated an increase in rainfall intensity and a reduction of frequency in several areas of the world, including Mediterranean areas. Rainfall characteristics may be crucial for vegetation patterns formation and evolution in Mediterranean ecosystems, with important implications, for example, in vegetation water stress or coexistence and competition dynamics. At the same time, characteristics of extreme rainfall events are fundamental for the estimation of flood peaks and quantiles which can be used in many hydrological applications, such as design of the most common hydraulic structures, or planning and management of flood prone areas.

    In the past, Sicily has been screened for several signals of possible climate change. Annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall data in the entire Sicilian region have been analyzed, showing a global reduction of total annual rainfall. Moreover, annual maximum rainfall series for different durations have been rarely analyzed in order to detect the presence of trends. Results indicated that for short durations, historical series generally exhibit increasing trends while for longer durations the trends are mainly negative.

    Starting from these premises, the aim of this study is to investigate and quantify changes in rainfall statistics in Sicily, during the second half of the last century. Time series of about 60 stations over the region have been processed and screened by using the non parametric Mann–Kendall test.

    Particularly, extreme events have been analyzed using annual maximum rainfall series at 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 h duration while daily rainfall properties have been analyzed in term of frequency and intensity, also characterizing seasonal rainfall features. Results of extreme events analysis confirmed an increasing trend for rainfall of short durations

  14. Rainfall statistics changes in Sicily

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Arnone

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Changes in rainfall characteristics are one of the most relevant signs of current climate alterations. Many studies have demonstrated an increase in rainfall intensity and a reduction of frequency in several areas of the world, including Mediterranean areas. Rainfall characteristics may be crucial for vegetation patterns formation and evolution in Mediterranean ecosystems, with important implications, for example, in vegetation water stress or coexistence and competition dynamics. At the same time, characteristics of extreme rainfall events are fundamental for the estimation of flood peaks and quantiles that can be used in many hydrological applications, such as design of the most common hydraulic structures, or planning and management of flood-prone areas. In the past, Sicily has been screened for several signals of possible climate change. Annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall data in the entire Sicilian region have been analyzed, showing a global reduction of total annual rainfall. Moreover, annual maximum rainfall series for different durations have been rarely analyzed in order to detect the presence of trends. Results indicated that for short durations, historical series generally exhibit increasing trends, while for longer durations the trends are mainly negative. Starting from these premises, the aim of this study is to investigate and quantify changes in rainfall statistics in Sicily, during the second half of the last century. Time series of about 60 stations over the region have been processed and screened by using the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test. In particular, extreme events have been analyzed using annual maximum rainfall series at 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 h duration, while daily rainfall properties have been analyzed in terms of frequency and intensity, also characterizing seasonal rainfall features. Results of extreme events analysis confirmed an increasing trend for rainfall of short durations, especially for 1 h rainfall

  15. NPY and stress 30 years later: the peripheral view.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirsch, Dalay; Zukowska, Zofia

    2012-07-01

    Almost 30 years ago, neuropeptide Y (NPY) was discovered as a sympathetic co-transmitter and one of the most evolutionarily conserved peptides abundantly present all over the body. Soon afterward, NPY's multiple receptors were characterized and cloned, and the peptide's role in stress was first documented. NPY has proven to be pivotal for maintaining many stress responses. Most notably, NPY is known for activating long-lasting vasoconstriction in many vascular beds, including coronary arteries. More recently, NPY was found to play a role in stress-induced accretion of adipose tissue which many times can lead to detrimental metabolic changes. It is however due to its prominent actions in the brain, one of which is its powerful ability to stimulate appetite as well as its anxiolytic activities that NPY became a peptide of importance in neuroscience. In contrast, its actions in the rest of the body, including its role as a stress mediator, remained, surprisingly underappreciated and not well understood. Our research has focused on that other, "peripheral" side of NPY. In this review, we will discuss those actions of NPY on the cardiovascular system and metabolism, as they relate to adaptation to stress, and attempt to both distinguish NPY's effects from and integrate them with the effects of the classical stress mediators, glucocorticoids, and catecholamines. To limit the bias of someone (ZZ) who has viewed the world of stress through the eyes of NPY for over 20 years, fresh insight (DH) has been solicited to more objectively assess NPY's contributions to stress-related diseases and the body's ability to adapt to stress.

  16. Synthesising 30 years of mathematical modelling of Echinococcus transmission.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jo-An M Atkinson

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Echinococcosis is a complex zoonosis that has domestic and sylvatic lifecycles, and a range of different intermediate and definitive host species. The complexities of its transmission and the sparse evidence on the effectiveness of control strategies in diverse settings provide significant challenges for the design of effective public health policy against this disease. Mathematical modelling is a useful tool for simulating control packages under locally specific transmission conditions to inform optimal timing and frequency of phased interventions for cost-effective control of echinococcosis. The aims of this review of 30 years of Echinococcus modelling were to discern the epidemiological mechanisms underpinning models of Echinococcus granulosus and E. multilocularis transmission and to establish the need to include a human transmission component in such models. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A search was conducted of all relevant articles published up until July 2012, identified from the PubMED, Web of Knowledge and Medline databases and review of bibliographies of selected papers. Papers eligible for inclusion were those describing the design of a new model, or modification of an existing mathematical model of E. granulosus or E. multilocularis transmission. A total of 13 eligible papers were identified, five of which described mathematical models of E. granulosus and eight that described E. multilocularis transmission. These models varied primarily on the basis of six key mechanisms that all have the capacity to modulate model dynamics, qualitatively affecting projections. These are: 1 the inclusion of a 'latent' class and/or time delay from host exposure to infectiousness; 2 an age structure for animal hosts; 3 the presence of density-dependent constraints; 4 accounting for seasonality; 5 stochastic parameters; and 6 inclusion of spatial and risk structures. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This review discusses the conditions under

  17. Lunokhod 2 - A retrospective Glance after 30 Years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gromov, V.; Kemurdjian, A.; Bogatchev, A.; Koutcherenko, V.; Malenkov, M.; Matrossov, S.; Vladykin, S.; Petriga, V.; Khakhanov, Y.

    2003-04-01

    30 years have passed since the second Soviet research Lunokhod-2 rover landed on the Moon on January 16, 1973 within the framework of the Luna-21 mission. Scientific explorations of the lunar surface and space, begun with the Lunokhod-1 rover (1970-1971), were continued with Lunokhod-2. Creation of Lunokhod-1 and Lunokhod-2 marked realization of direction on study of planets using mobile self-propelled robots. Other direction connected with using planetary rovers to transport astronauts, scientific equipment and weights was realized as a result of creation of the American LRV lunar rover. Astronauts during Apollo-15 (1971), Apollo-15 (1972) and Apollo-15 (1972) missions used it. Programs of operation for Lunokhod-1,-2 on the Moon envisaged investigations of topographic and morphological peculiarities of the terrain, determination of the chemical composition and physical and mechanical properties of soil, experiments on the laser detection and ranging of the Moon and, etc. Successful fulfilment of programs was ensured, to a considerable extent, with the self-propelled chassis developed at VNIITRANSMASH to order of the Lavochkin Scientific and Production Association (NPOL). The chassis, on the one hand, ensured necessary cross-country ability for Lunokhod-1,-2, on the other hand, it was as the independent scientific instrument, which provided investigation as temperature measurement of the lunar surface, surface topography and craters distribution, physical and mechanical properties of soil with the special PROP instrument equipped with the penetrometer, chassis traction-cohesive characteristics, upper surface layer by a character its deformation by the mover, etc. A number of improvements of Lunokhod-2 improving its operating characteristics were performed on the basis of results of Lunokhod-1 operation. Lunokhod-1,-2 operation confirmed that automatic mobile robots can be used as effective means for studying planets and their satellites. At the same time, an

  18. Isotretinoin: dose, duration and relapse. What does 30 years of usage tell us?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rademaker, Marius

    2013-08-01

    With 30 years of clinical use, it is appropriate to review the use of isotretinoin. We now understand that retinoids influence cellular growth, differentiation, morphogenesis and apoptosis, inhibit tumour promotion and malignant cell growth, exert immuno-modulatory actions and alter cellular cohesiveness. This has expanded the indications of isotretinoin from just acne and rosacea to a wide range of inflammatory and malignant skin disorders. While the standard dose of 0.5 to 1 mg/kg per day for 4 months to a cumulative dose of 120-140 mg/kg per day has served us well in the management of acne vulgaris, there is emerging evidence that much lower dosages (as low as 5 mg/day) are just as effective but have significantly fewer adverse effects. Relapse of acne vulgaris continues to be a problem but we are beginning to recognise that this is related less to the cumulative dose and more to the length of sebaceous gland suppression. Other factors important for relapse include a macrocomedonal pattern of acne, smoking and age, both younger (under 14 years) and older (over 25 years). After 30 years of use, we now understand why isotretinoin is such an effective drug. Not only does it clear acne in almost all patients, long-term remission can be achieved in 70-80% of patients with a single course. Important changes in the use of isotretinoin include using a lower daily dose for a longer period of time. New indications continue to emerge, particularly as a potential treatment for both intrinsic and extrinsic (photo) aging. Teratogenicity however, remains a very significant concern.

  19. Changes in extreme rainfall over South-East Asia and their link to the monsoon system in 21th century from CMIP5 simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freychet, N.; Chou, C.; Hsu, H.; Wu, C.

    2013-12-01

    The South-East Asia is well known for its recurrent heavy rainfall, either due to typhoons or monsoon systems. In a global warming scenario, extreme rainfall are expected to increase, both in intensity and frequency, because of the increase in air moisture. This increase often comes along with an augmentation of dry days frequency, indicating that the atmospheric water is released less frequently but more intensively. This can be explained by a rise of mid-level troposphere temperature, which increase the required CAPE for convection. Several studies already pointed out this aspect with the CMIP3 results. Here we investigate the change in extreme rainfall (i.e. the 99th percentile of precipitation) over South-East Asia, using the CMIP5 daily results. We compare the mean long term trend (i.e. the mean of 30 years at the end of the 21th century forecast), with the average of 30 years from historical runs. We do not only perform global statistical analysis, but we mainly look at the spatial pattern of changes, along with the modification of the monsoon system in this region. We also investigate the seasonal and monthly signal of changes. This study focus on rainfall over lands only, because of their possible social and economic impacts. The results show first a wild range between models regarding their sensitivity to the global warming. In the mean, they all show an increase in extreme rainfall. But the range of the change in intensity goes from 0 to 50 percent (increase), which point out great uncertainties. In all the models, the extreme rainfall increase much faster than the average precipitation. This increase is weaker during winter (about 10%) and stronger during summer (30%), characterizing an intensification in the monsoon system. This also means that the inter-seasonal signal should increase by the end of the century. The monsoon is not affected uniformly. We observe intra-seasonal variation, with enhance or decrease in winds velocities, and also differences

  20. Rainfall erosivity estimation based on rainfall data collected over a range of temporal resolutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Yin

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall erosivity is the power of rainfall to cause soil erosion by water. The rainfall erosivity index for a rainfall event, EI30, is calculated from the total kinetic energy and maximum 30 min intensity of individual events. However, these data are often unavailable in many areas of the world. The purpose of this study was to develop models that relate more commonly available rainfall data resolutions, such as daily or monthly totals, to rainfall erosivity. Eleven stations with one-minute temporal resolution rainfall data collected from 1961 through 2000 in the eastern water-erosion areas of China were used to develop and calibrate 21 models. Seven independent stations, also with one-minute data, were utilized to validate those models, together with 20 previously published equations. Results showed that models in this study performed better or similar to models from previous research to estimate rainfall erosivity for these data. Prediction capabilities, as determined using symmetric mean absolute percentage errors and Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficients, were demonstrated for the 41 models including those for estimating erosivity at event, daily, monthly, yearly, average monthly and average annual time scales. Prediction capabilities were generally better using higher resolution rainfall data as inputs. For example, models with rainfall amount and maximum 60 min rainfall amount as inputs performed better than models with rainfall amount and maximum daily rainfall amount, which performed better than those with only rainfall amount. Recommendations are made for choosing the appropriate estimation equation, which depend on objectives and data availability.

  1. Rainfall Variability, Drought Characterization, and Efficacy of Rainfall Data Reconstruction: Case of Eastern Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Oscar Kisaka

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study examined the extent of seasonal rainfall variability, drought occurrence, and the efficacy of interpolation techniques in eastern Kenya. Analyses of rainfall variability utilized rainfall anomaly index, coefficients of variance, and probability analyses. Spline, Kriging, and inverse distance weighting interpolation techniques were assessed using daily rainfall data and digital elevation model using ArcGIS. Validation of these interpolation methods was evaluated by comparing the modelled/generated rainfall values and the observed daily rainfall data using root mean square errors and mean absolute errors statistics. Results showed 90% chance of below cropping threshold rainfall (500 mm exceeding 258.1 mm during short rains in Embu for one year return period. Rainfall variability was found to be high in seasonal amounts (CV = 0.56, 0.47, and 0.59 and in number of rainy days (CV = 0.88, 0.49, and 0.53 in Machang’a, Kiritiri, and Kindaruma, respectively. Monthly rainfall variability was found to be equally high during April and November (CV = 0.48, 0.49, and 0.76 with high probabilities (0.67 of droughts exceeding 15 days in Machang’a and Kindaruma. Dry-spell probabilities within growing months were high, (91%, 93%, 81%, and 60% in Kiambere, Kindaruma, Machang’a, and Embu, respectively. Kriging interpolation method emerged as the most appropriate geostatistical interpolation technique suitable for spatial rainfall maps generation for the study region.

  2. Spatio-temporal variability of rainfall regime in the Brahmaputra valley of North East India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deka, R. L.; Mahanta, C.; Nath, K. K.; Dutta, M. K.

    2016-05-01

    Monthly rainfall data, spanning over 110 years (1901-2010), were utilized for trend analysis at different spatial and temporal scales over the Brahmaputra valley, India. The Mann-Kendall statistic and Sen's slope model were used to identify the trends and estimate the magnitude of change, respectively. Statistical significance of the decadal shifts in rainfall from the overall mean was estimated by using Cramer's test. The analysis revealed decrease in annual as well as monsoon rainfall in the Brahmaputra valley during the last 110 years with large spatial and temporal variations. These decreasing trends of rainfall in the eastern part of the valley were statistically significant. Significant decreasing trend of monsoon rainfall during the recent 30-year period was due to significant decrease of July and September rainfall, and this trend was found to be consistent at different spatial scales. In the last decade (2001-2010) in particular, monsoon rainfall exhibited significant negative deviation from the normal due to three deficient years and absence of excess rainfall years. On the contrary, contribution of pre-monsoon and post-monsoon rainfall to annual total in the Brahmaputra valley increased during the recent 30-year period. Winter rainfall in the valley decreased during the last 30 years due to significant decrease of December rainfall in the eastern and central parts.

  3. Founders lecture 2007. Metabolic bone disease: what has changed in 30 years?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sundaram, Murali [Cleveland Clinic, Diagnostic Radiology, MSK, Cleveland, OH (United States)

    2009-09-15

    To provide an update on imaging of metabolic bone disease based on new developments, findings, and changing practices over the past 30 years. Literature review of osteoporosis, osteomalacia, renal osteodystrophy, Paget's disease, bisphosphonates, with an emphasis on imaging. Cited references and pertinent findings. Significant developments have occurred in the imaging of metabolic bone disease over the past 30 years. (orig.)

  4. 30 years of upper air soundings on board of R/V POLARSTERN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Driemel, Amelie; Loose, Bernd; Grobe, Hannes; Sieger, Rainer; König-Langlo, Gert

    2016-06-01

    The research vessel and supply icebreaker POLARSTERN is the flagship of the Alfred-Wegener-Institut in Bremerhaven (Germany) and one of the infrastructural pillars of German Antarctic research. Since its commissioning in 1982, POLARSTERN has conducted 30 campaigns to Antarctica (157 legs, mostly austral summer), and 29 to the Arctic (94 legs, northern summer). Usually, POLARSTERN is more than 300 days per year in operation and crosses the Atlantic Ocean in a meridional section twice a year. The first radiosonde on POLARSTERN was released on the 29 December 1982, 2 days after POLARSTERN started on its maiden voyage to the Antarctic. And these daily soundings have continued up to the present. Due to the fact that POLARSTERN has reliably and regularly been providing upper air observations from data sparse regions (oceans and polar regions), the radiosonde data are of special value for researchers and weather forecast services alike. In the course of 30 years (29 December 1982 to 25 November 2012) a total of 12 378 radiosonde balloons were started on POLARSTERN. All radiosonde data can now be found at König-Langlo (2015, doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.810000). Each data set contains the directly measured parameters air temperature, relative humidity and air pressure, and the derived altitude, wind direction and wind speed. 432 data sets additionally contain ozone measurements.Although more sophisticated techniques (meteorological satellites, aircraft observation, remote-sensing systems, etc.) have nowadays become increasingly important, the high vertical resolution and quality of radiosonde data remains paramount for weather forecasts and modelling approaches.

  5. Análisis metodológico de la distribución espacial de la precipitación y la estimación media diaria Methodological analysis of the spatial distribution of rainfall and the average daily stimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauro Íñiguez Covarrubias

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available El objetivo del trabajo consistió en mostrar un análisis metodológico geoestadístico, para generar un patrón espacial de la lluvia, asociado a la precipitación media diaria. Caracterizar y conocer la distribución espacial de la precipitación, también conocida como "campo de tormenta" y asociarla a un modelo de distribución o sustituirla por una precipitación media por métodos convencionales, es un reto importante en estudios de las ciencias del agua. La metodología propuesta requiere de la construcción de un variograma, elaborado por un ajuste de datos experimentales de un campo de tormenta, que sirva como base para generar la distribución espacial de la lluvia con la aplicación del método geoestadístico del "krigeado". Esto permite determinar la precipitación media diaria de una cuenca hidrográfica. Los resultados muestran que es posible obtener una función que relacione la lluvia media con el campo de tormenta, mediante los parámetros α y β del variograma ajustado a un modelo esférico. Para validar la aplicación de la metodología se analizaron varios eventos, aquí se presentan dos eventos de precipitación observada en la cuenca del río Juchipila, y río Calvillo, entre los estados de Aguascalientes y Zacatecas. Los resultados muestran una relación única de la lluvia media diaria con la distribución espacial, representada por el campo de tormenta. Asimismo, se encontró que el valor óptimo de la función es mínimo al compararlo con los resultados obtenidos por cuatro métodos convencionales: promedio aritmético, polígonos de Thiessen, método de isoyetas y método de krigeado lineal.The aim of the study was to show a geostatistical methodological analysis to create a spatial pattern of rain, related to average daily rainfall. Defining and knowing the spatial distribution of rainfall, also known as the "storm field" and related to a distribution model, or replacing it to an average rainfall using conventional

  6. Strongest Tropical cyclones: 1980-2009: A 30-year collage of Hurricane Satellite (HURSAT) data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Strongest Tropical Cyclones: 1980-2009 poster - a 30-year collage of Hurricane Satellite (HURSAT) data. This poster depicts a series of 5 degree grids where within...

  7. Exhibition on the 30 Years of Reform and Opening-up Held

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    @@ In commemoration of the 30 years of reform and opening-up, under the authorization of the State Council, the "Review Exhibition on the 30-Year Reform and Opening-Up of China," jointly sponsored by the Ministry of Commerce of the PRC, the International Communication Office of the CPC Central Committee, the Party Literature Research Center of the CPC Central Committee and Xinhua News Agency, opened in the Exhibition Hall of the China World Trade Center on December 18.

  8. Trends in rainfall and rainfall-related extremes in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Olaniya Olusegun Mayowa; Sahar Hadi Pour; Shamsuddin Shahid; Morteza Mohsenipour; Sobri Bin Harun; Arien Heryansyah; Tarmizi Ismail

    2015-12-01

    The coastlines have been identified as the most vulnerable regions with respect to hydrological hazards as a result of climate change and variability. The east of peninsular Malaysia is not an exception for this, considering the evidence of heavy rainfall resulting in floods as an annual phenomenon and also water scarcity due to long dry spells in the region. This study examines recent trends in rainfall and rainfallrelated extremes such as, maximum daily rainfall, number of rainy days, average rainfall intensity, heavy rainfall days, extreme rainfall days, and precipitation concentration index in the east coast of peninsular Malaysia. Recent 40 years (1971–2010) rainfall records from 54 stations along the east coast of peninsular Malaysia have been analyzed using the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and the Sen's slope method. The Monte Carlo simulation technique has been used to determine the field significance of the regional trends. The results showed that there was a substantial increase in the annual rainfall as well as the rainfall during the monsoon period. Also, there was an increase in the number of heavy rainfall days during the past four decades.

  9. Simulação da precipitação diária para Parnaíba e Teresina, PI, em planilha eletrônica Daily rainfall simulation in Parnaíba and Teresina - Brazil, using a spreadsheet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aderson S. de Andrade Júnior

    2001-05-01

    Full Text Available Os estudos envolvendo precipitação pluviométrica são bastante dificultados devido ao fato das séries históricas disponíveis serem, na maioria dos casos, muito pequenas para efetuá-los. Desta forma, faz-se necessário dispor de uma técnica de simulação estocástica que possibilite a geração de valores diários de precipitação, utilizando-se uma planilha eletrônica. No Estado do Piauí, estudos com esse objetivo são inexistentes, razão por que este trabalho tem o objetivo de simular a precipitação pluviométrica diária para as regiões de Parnaíba e Teresina, PI, através de uma planilha eletrônica. O processo de simulação se baseou no método de Monte Carlo. A ocorrência da precipitação foi determinada através da cadeia de Markov, enquanto a sua magnitude foi estimada pelas funções de distribuição de probabilidades gama e empírica. O modelo utilizado proporcionou estimativas com excelente precisão e exatidão, fato comprovado pelos resultados satisfatórios quanto aos índices de desempenho estatísticos.The studies involving rainfall are quite difficult to conduct due to the fact that the available historical series, in most of the cases, are too small to make them. Thus, it is necessary to adjust a stochastic simulation technique that facilitates the generation of daily rainfall values, using a spreadsheet. In Piauí State, studies with this objective are inexistent for its several regions of agricultural importance. This work was executed with the objective of simulating the daily rainfall for the regions of Parnaíba and Teresina - PI, Brazil, using a spreadsheet. The simulation process was based on Monte Carlo's method. The occurrence of the rainfall was determined through a Markov chain, while its magnitude was estimated by gamma and empirical distribution functions. The model used provided estimates with excellent precision and accuracy, checked by satisfactory results of the statistical performance index.

  10. U.S. Daily Climate Normals (1981-2010)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The U.S. Daily Climate Normals for 1981 to 2010 are 30-year averages of meteorological parameters for thousands of U.S. stations located across the 50 states, as...

  11. Responses of grassland vegetation to climatic variations on different temporal scales in Hulun Buir Grassland in the past 30 years

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Geli; XU Xingliang; ZHOU Caiping; ZHANG Hongbin; OUYANG Hua

    2011-01-01

    Global warming has led to significant vegetation changes especially in the past 20 years.Hulun Buir Grassland in Inner Mongolia,one of the world's three prairies,is undergoing a process of prominent warming and drying.It is essential to investigate the effects of climatic change (temperature and precipitation) on vegetation dynamics for a better understanding of climatic change.NDVl (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index),reflecting characteristics of plant growth,vegetation coverage and biomass,is used as an indicator to monitor vegetation changes.GIMMS NDVl from 1981 to 2006 and MODIS NDVl from 2000 to 2009 were adopted and integrated in this study to extract the time series characteristics of vegetation changes in Hulun Buir Grassland.The responses of vegetation coverage to climatic change on the yearly,seasonal and monthly scales were analyzed combined with temperature and precipitation data of seven meteorological sites.In the past 30 years,vegetation coverage was more correlated with climatic factors,and the correlations were dependent on the time scales.On an inter-annual scale,vegetation change was better correlated with precipitation,suggesting that rainfall was the main factor for driving vegetation changes.On a seasonal-interannual scale,correlations between vegetation coverage change and climatic factors showed that the sensitivity of vegetation growth to the aqueous and thermal condition changes was different in different seasons.The sensitivity of vegetation growth to temperature in summers was higher than in the other seasons,while its sensitivity to rainfall in both summers and autumns was higher,especially in summers.On a monthly-interannual scale,correlations between vegetation coverage change and climatic factors during growth seasons showed that the response of vegetation changes to temperature in both April and May was stronger.This indicates that the temperature effect occurs in the early stage of vegetation growth.Correlations between

  12. A randomized controlled 30 years follow up of three conventional resin composites in Class II restorations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pallesen, Ulla; van Dijken, Jan WV

    2015-01-01

    three (one set) as similar as possible Class II restorations of moderate size.After cavity preparation, the three cavities were chosen at random to be restored with twochemical-cured (P10, Miradapt) and one light-cured resin composite (P30). A chemical-curedenamel bonding agent was applied after etching......Objective. The aim of this 30 year randomized controlled study was to evaluate, by intrain-dividual comparisons, the durability of three conventional resin composites in Class IIrestorations. Methods. Each of 30 participants, 21 female and 9 male (mean age 30 years, range 20–43),received at least...... of the enamel. The chemical-cured resincomposites were placed in bulk and the light-cured in increments. One operator placed 99restorations (33 sets). The restorations were evaluated with slightly modified USPHS crite-ria at baseline, 2, 3, 5, 10, 15, 20 and 30 years. Statistical analyses were performed by the...

  13. Heavy rainfall equations for Santa Catarina, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Álvaro José Back

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge of intensity-duration-frequency (IDF relationships of rainfall events is extremely important to determine the dimensions of surface drainage structures and soil erosion control. The purpose of this study was to obtain IDF equations of 13 rain gauge stations in the state of Santa Catarina in Brazil: Chapecó, Urussanga, Campos Novos, Florianópolis, Lages, Caçador, Itajaí, Itá, Ponte Serrada, Porto União, Videira, Laguna and São Joaquim. The daily rainfall data charts of each station were digitized and then the annual maximum rainfall series were determined for durations ranging from 5 to 1440 min. Based on these, with the Gumbel-Chow distribution, the maximum rainfall was estimated for durations ranging from 5 min to 24 h, considering return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20, 25, 50, and 100 years,. Data agreement with the Gumbel-Chow model was verified by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, at 5 % significance level. For each rain gauge station, two IDF equations of rainfall events were adjusted, one for durations from 5 to 120 min and the other from 120 to 1440 min. The results show a high variability in maximum intensity of rainfall events among the studied stations. Highest values of coefficients of variation in the annual maximum series of rainfall were observed for durations of over 600 min at the stations of the coastal region of Santa Catarina.

  14. Recovering from 30 Years of War: Refugee Women and Children in Angola.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Women's Commission for Refugee Women and Children, New York, NY.

    After 30 years of war, Angola faces the challenge of creating a civil society. This report presents key findings of a visit to Angola, December 1-13, 1996, by the Women's Commission for Refugee Women and Children. The report describes conditions facing women and children affected by war in Angola, addresses the return process of refugees from…

  15. Philosophic Thinking in Social Work: An Analysis of 30 Years of "Social Work" Editorials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez-Brawley, Emilia E.; Zorita, Paz M-B

    2016-01-01

    This article looks at 30 years of editorial perspectives and trends in social work as a profession through the analysis of editorials from the journal "Social Work." It identifies the wax and wane of philosophic (intellectual or scholarly) questions in social work thinking in the past three decades. It defines what philosophic thinking…

  16. Studies Using Single-Subject Designs in Sport Psychology: 30 Years of Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, G. L.; Thompson, K.; Regehr, K.

    2004-01-01

    A prominent feature of behavior-analytic research has been the use of single-subject designs. We examined sport psychology journals and behavioral journals published during the past 30 years, and located 40 studies using single-subject designs to assess interventions for enhancing the performance of athletes and coaches. In this paper, we…

  17. Bullying in Childhood, Externalizing Behaviors, and Adult Offending: Evidence from a 30-Year Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fergusson, David M.; Boden, Joseph M.; Horwood, L. John

    2014-01-01

    This study examined the developmental processes linking childhood bullying to criminal offending in adulthood, using data from a 30-year longitudinal study. The linkages between bullying in childhood and three criminal offending outcomes in adulthood were estimated both before and after control for a range of confounding factors. A series of…

  18. Experimental study of cathodic protection of concrete from a 30 year old bridge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Polder, R.B.; Nerland, O.C.

    1998-01-01

    An experimental study of cathodic protection (CP) was carried out with a conductive primer anode applied to specimens from a concrete bridge. The bridge was demolished after 30 years of service due to severe delaminations and reinforcement corrosion. Four specimens of approximately 1 m2 each were ma

  19. Leadership and Change in Schools: Personal Reflections over the Last 30 Years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seashore, Karen R.

    2009-01-01

    The two fields of leadership studies and school change have increasingly converged over the last 30 years. This paper reviews the origins of the intersection, and the development of research themes in three areas: The role of leaders in shaping and using organizational culture, the agency of teachers in the change process, and the importance of…

  20. Reflections on 30 Years of AIDS—Part 1

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2011-06-15

    Dr. Kevin DeCock, director of The Center for Global Health at CDC, reflects on 30 years of the AIDS epidemic.  Created: 6/15/2011 by National Center for Emerging Zoonotic and Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 6/16/2011.

  1. "Fear of Success" Revisited: A Replication of Matina Horner's Study 30 Years Later.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engle, Jennifer

    This study updated and extended the classic "fear of success" study conducted by Matina Horner more than 30 years ago. Horner (1970) asked college students to respond to a scenario in which "Anne" or "John" is at the top of her/his medical school class. Based on the negative responses of students to "Anne,"…

  2. Early conduct problems, school achievement and later crime: findings from a 30-year longitudinal study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jakobsen, Ida Skytte; Fergusson, David; Horwood, John L.

    2012-01-01

    This study used dato from a 30-year longitudinal study to esamine the associations between early conduct problems, school achievement and later crime. The analysis showed that, even following extensive adjustment for confounding, both early conduct problems and later educational achievement made...

  3. Investigation of summer monsoon rainfall variability in Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussain, Mian Sabir; Lee, Seungho

    2016-08-01

    This study analyzes the inter-annual and intra-seasonal rainfall variability in Pakistan using daily rainfall data during the summer monsoon season (June to September) recorded from 1980 to 2014. The variability in inter-annual monsoon rainfall ranges from 20 % in northeastern regions to 65 % in southwestern regions of Pakistan. The analysis reveals that the transition of the negative and positive anomalies was not uniform in the investigated dataset. In order to acquire broad observations of the intra-seasonal variability, an objective criterion, the pre-active period, active period and post-active periods of the summer monsoon rainfall have demarcated. The analysis also reveals that the rainfall in June has no significant contribution to the increase in intra-seasonal rainfall in Pakistan. The rainfall has, however, been enhanced in the summer monsoon in August. The rainfall of September demonstrates a sharp decrease, resulting in a high variability in the summer monsoon season. A detailed examination of the intra-seasonal rainfall also reveals frequent amplitude from late July to early August. The daily normal rainfall fluctuates significantly with its maximum in the Murree hills and its minimum in the northwestern Baluchistan.

  4. 30 years later: Social Representations about AIDS and sexual practices of rural towns residents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furtado, Francisca Marina de Souza Freire; Santos, José Anderson Galdino; Loredanna, Stedile; Araújo, Eunice; Saldanha, Ana Alayde Werba; Silva, Josevânia da

    2016-06-01

    In the 30 years of the AIDS pandemic in Brazil, it is recognized the HIV virus internalization of the phenomenon as a challenge to care and current health policies. In this sense, it aimed to verify sex practices and social representations that rural towns residents have about the disease. Attended by 789 people, men and women, between 18 and 90 years old, residents in 41 towns with fewer than 11,000 inhabitants in the state of Paraiba / Brazil. Data were collected by a questionnaire and the free association of words test. The results showed low concern about disease, perception of invulnerability to HIV infection and not using condoms during sexual intercourse, and confidence in the major reason related partner. Also showed endure derogatory and stereotypical representations, revealing that still persist in rural areas, beliefs and representations concerning the beginning of the epidemic. From these findings, it is possible to point out deficiencies in the care provided by the health services in these localities, which may result in increased vulnerability of this population to diseases, so there is the need to intensify information campaigns and intervention. The results reveal the existence of three different types of modes of learning health literacy skills in informal context: : i) learning that takes place in action, in achieving daily tasks; ii) learning processes that result from problem solving; iii) learning that occurs in an unplanned manner, resulting from accidental circumstances and, in some cases, devoid of intentionality. Nos 30 anos da pandemia da Aids no Brasil, reconhece-se o fenômeno da interiorização do vírus HIV como um desafio ao cuidado e às politicas de saúde atuais. Neste sentido, objetivou-se conhecer práticas sexuais e as representações sociais que residentes de cidades rurais têm acerca da doença. Participaram 789 pessoas, homens e mulheres, entre 18 e 90 anos de idade, residentes em 41 cidades com menos de 11.000 habitantes

  5. A multiplier-based method of generating stochastic areal rainfall from point rainfalls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ndiritu, J. G.

    Catchment modelling for water resources assessment is still mainly based on rain gauge measurements as these are more easily available and cover longer periods than radar and satellite-based measurements. Rain gauges however measure the rain falling on an extremely small proportion of the catchment and the areal rainfall obtained from these point measurements are consequently substantially uncertain. These uncertainties in areal rainfall estimation are generally ignored and the need to assess their impact on catchment modelling and water resources assessment is therefore imperative. A method that stochastically generates daily areal rainfall from point rainfall using multiplicative perturbations as a means of dealing with these uncertainties is developed and tested on the Berg catchment in the Western Cape of South Africa. The differences in areal rainfall obtained by alternately omitting some of the rain gauges are used to obtain a population of plausible multiplicative perturbations. Upper bounds on the applicable perturbations are set to prevent the generation of unrealistically large rainfall and to obtain unbiased stochastic rainfall. The perturbations within the set bounds are then fitted into probability density functions to stochastically generate the perturbations to impose on areal rainfall. By using 100 randomly-initialized calibrations of the AWBM catchment model and Sequent Peak Analysis, the effects of incorporating areal rainfall uncertainties on storage-yield-reliability analysis are assessed. Incorporating rainfall uncertainty is found to reduce the required storage by up to 20%. Rainfall uncertainty also increases flow-duration variability considerably and reduces the median flow-duration values by an average of about 20%.

  6. Daily rainfall variability at a local scale (1,000 ha, in Piracicaba, SP, Brazil, and its implications on soil water recharge Variabilidade diária da chuva em uma escala local (1000 ha em Piracicaba, SP, e suas implicações na recarga da água do solo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Reichardt

    1995-04-01

    Full Text Available Daily rainfall variability at a local scale (1,000 ha was studied at Piracicaba, SP, Brazil, for the period of one year (1993-1994, in order to better understand the process of soil water recharge. Coefficients of variation of daily data for ten observation points varied from 2.2 to 169.3% and the variability was independent of rain type, i.e. whether convective, frontal or of other origin. Data were not related to separation distances between observation points and it is concluded that one observation point does not represent areas as far as 1,000 to 2,500 m apart, for daily, monthly or even quarterly averages. Yearly totals for the ten observation points presented a coefficient of variation as low as 3.06%, indicating that all points can replace each other in annual terms.A variabilidade diária da chuva em uma escala local (1000 ha foi estudada em Piracicaba, SP, Brasil, pelo período de um ano (1993-1994. Os coeficientes de variação de dados diários para dez pontos de observação variaram de 2,2 a 169,3 % e a variabilidade independeu do tipo de chuva, isto é, se convectiva, frontal ou de outra origem. Os dados não apresentaram correlação com a distância entre os pontos de observação e concluiu-se que uni ponto de observação não representa áreas distantes dele de 1000 a 2500 m, para médias diárias, mensais ou mesmo trimestrais. Os totais anuais dos dez pontos apresentaram um coeficiente de variação de apenas 3,06 %, indicando que cada ponto pode representar qualquer outro em termos anuais.

  7. A rainfall simulation model for agricultural development in Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Sayedur Rahman

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available A rainfall simulation model based on a first-order Markov chain has been developed to simulate the annual variation in rainfall amount that is observed in Bangladesh. The model has been tested in the Barind Tract of Bangladesh. Few significant differences were found between the actual and simulated seasonal, annual and average monthly. The distribution of number of success is asymptotic normal distribution. When actual and simulated daily rainfall data were used to drive a crop simulation model, there was no significant difference of rice yield response. The results suggest that the rainfall simulation model perform adequately for many applications.

  8. Daily Water Use in Nine Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maidment, David R.; Miaou, Shaw-Pin

    1986-06-01

    Transfer functions are used to model the short-term response of daily municipal water use to rainfall and air temperature variations. Daily water use data from nine cities are studied, three cities each from Florida, Pennsylvania, and Texas. The dynamic response of water use to rainfall and air temperature is similar across the cities within each State; in addition the responses of the Texas and Florida cities are very similar to one another while the response of the Pennsylvania cities is more sensitive to air temperature and less to rainfall. There is little impact of city size on the response functions. The response of water use to rainfall depends first on the occurrence of rainfall and second on its magnitude. The occurrence of a rainfall more than 0.05 in./day (0.13 cm/day) causes a drop in the seasonal component of water use one day later that averages 38% for the Texas cities, 42% for the Florida cities, and 7% for the Pennsylvania cities. In Austin, Texas, a spatially averaged rainfall series shows a clearer relationship with water use than does rainfall data from a single gage. There is a nonlinear response of water use to air temperature changes with no response for daily maximum air temperatures between 40° and 70°F (4-21°C) an increase in water use with air temperature beyond 70°F; above 85°-90°F (29°-32°C) water use increases 3-5 times more per degree than below that limit in Texas and Florida. The model resulting from these studies can be used for daily water use forecasting and water conservation analysis.

  9. Revisiting 30 years of Biofunctionalization and Surface Chemistry of Inorganic Nanoparticles for Nanomedicine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    João eConde

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available In the last 30 years we have assisted to a massive advance of nanomaterials in material science. Nanomaterials and structures, in addition to their small size, have properties that differ from those of larger bulk materials, making them ideal for a host of novel applications. The spread of nanotechnology in the last years has been due to the improvement of synthesis and characterization methods on the nanoscale, a field rich in new physical phenomena and synthetic opportunities. In fact, the development of functional nanoparticles has progressed exponentially over the past two decades. This work aims to extensively review 30 years of different strategies of surface modification and functionalization of noble metal (gold nanoparticles, magnetic nanocrystals and semiconductor nanoparticles, such as quantum dots. The aim of this review is not only to provide in-depth insights into the different biofunctionalization and characterization methods, but also to give an overview of possibilities and limitations of the available nanoparticles.

  10. 30 years of reform and opening up:experience and characteristics

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈佳贵

    2008-01-01

    This year marks the 30th anniversary of China’s reform and opening-up program,which has brought about unprecedented achievements in the country’s three decades of rapid development. This issue contains three articles on the theme of this 30th anniversary,presenting insights on the past and present and prospects for the coming period. The current issue includes "China’s 30 years of reform and opening up:experiences and characteristics" by Prof. Chen Jiagui;"30 years of prosperity in China’s non-state economy" by Prof. Liu Yingqiu; and "The development of an open economy in China" by Prof. Pei Changhong. These articles evaluate the policies of the past three decades from different angles and looking at different facets,yet each with theoretical as well as practical signif icance. We believe that these historical reflections will steer China on an even more successful path of future reform and opening.

  11. Revisiting 30 years of Biofunctionalization and Surface Chemistry of Inorganic Nanoparticles for Nanomedicine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conde, João; Dias, Jorge; Grazú, Valeria; Moros, Maria; Baptista, Pedro; De La Fuente, Jesús

    2014-07-01

    In the last 30 years we have assisted to a massive advance of nanomaterials in material science. Nanomaterials and structures, in addition to their small size, have properties that differ from those of larger bulk materials, making them ideal for a host of novel applications. The spread of nanotechnology in the last years has been due to the improvement of synthesis and characterization methods on the nanoscale, a field rich in new physical phenomena and synthetic opportunities. In fact, the development of functional nanoparticles has progressed exponentially over the past two decades. This work aims to extensively review 30 years of different strategies of surface modification and functionalization of noble metal (gold) nanoparticles, magnetic nanocrystals and semiconductor nanoparticles, such as quantum dots. The aim of this review is not only to provide in-depth insights into the different biofunctionalization and characterization methods, but also to give an overview of possibilities and limitations of the available nanoparticles.

  12. An empirical analysis of issues and trends in manufacturing productivity through a 30-year literature review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee, Choonghyun

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper analysed the keywords in manufacturing productivity- related studies over the last 30 years to consider the change in the concept of ‘productivity’, a longstanding and important factor in studies about manufacturing. After first identifying 110,269 keywords in related research through 11,237 academic papers, we narrowed them down to 97 in nine categories by applying certain criteria. Most of the previous studies dealt with productivity in the context of corporate data; but this study investigated the change in the concept of manufacturing productivity by analysing the keywords of many studies of this concept. We classified the 30 years from 1980 to 2009 into five eras of productivity, according to their representative characteristics, using the analysed keywords. We expect that this study will serve as a practical guideline for managers in industry, and as an academic foundation for future research into productivity.

  13. Cervical cancer screening among women aged 18-30 years - United States, 2000-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Screening women for cervical cancer can save lives. However, among young women, cervical cancer is relatively rare, and too-frequent screening can lead to high costs and adverse events associated with overtreatment. Before 2012, cervical cancer screening guidelines of the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG), American Cancer Society (ACS), and U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) differed on age to start and how often to get screened for cervical cancer. In 2012, however, all three organizations recommended that 1) screening by Papanicolau (Pap) test should not be used for women aged <21 years, regardless of initiation of sexual activity, and 2) a screening interval of 3 years should be maintained for women aged 21-30 years. ACS and ACOG explicitly recommend against yearly screening. To assess trends in Pap testing before the new guidelines were introduced, CDC analyzed 2000-2010 data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) for women aged 18-30 years. CDC found that, among women aged 18-21 years, the percentage reporting never having been screened increased from 26.3% in 2000 to 47.5% in 2010, and the proportion reporting having had a Pap test in the past 12 months decreased from 65.0% to 41.5%. Among those aged 22-30 years, the proportion reporting having had a Pap test within the preceding 12 months decreased from 78.1% to 67.0%. These findings showed that Pap testing practices for young women have been moving toward the latest guidelines. However, the data also showed a concerning trend: among women aged 22-30 years, who should be screened every 3 years, the proportion who reported never having had a Pap test increased from 6.6% to 9.0%. More effort is needed to promote acceptance of the latest evidence-based recommendations so that all women receive the maximal benefits of cervical cancer screening.

  14. Reflections on 30 Years of AIDS—Part 2

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2011-06-15

    Dr. James Curran, Dean of the Rollins School of Public Health and Co-Director of Emory’s Center for AIDS Research, and Dr. Harold Jaffe, CDC’s Associate Director for Science, reflect on 30 years of the AIDS epidemic.  Created: 6/15/2011 by National Center for Emerging Zoonotic and Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 6/20/2011.

  15. Rainfall simulation in education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Piet; Baartman, Jantiene; Gooren, Harm; Keesstra, Saskia

    2016-04-01

    Rainfall simulation has become an important method for the assessment of soil erosion and soil hydrological processes. For students, rainfall simulation offers an year-round, attractive and active way of experiencing water erosion, while not being dependent on (outdoors) weather conditions. Moreover, using rainfall simulation devices, they can play around with different conditions, including rainfall duration, intensity, soil type, soil cover, soil and water conservation measures, etc. and evaluate their effect on erosion and sediment transport. Rainfall simulators differ in design and scale. At Wageningen University, both BSc and MSc student of the curriculum 'International Land and Water Management' work with different types of rainfall simulation devices in three courses: - A mini rainfall simulator (0.0625m2) is used in the BSc level course 'Introduction to Land Degradation and Remediation'. Groups of students take the mini rainfall simulator with them to a nearby field location and test it for different soil types, varying from clay to more sandy, slope angles and vegetation or litter cover. The groups decide among themselves which factors they want to test and they compare their results and discuss advantage and disadvantage of the mini-rainfall simulator. - A medium sized rainfall simulator (0.238 m2) is used in the MSc level course 'Sustainable Land and Water Management', which is a field practical in Eastern Spain. In this course, a group of students has to develop their own research project and design their field measurement campaign using the transportable rainfall simulator. - Wageningen University has its own large rainfall simulation laboratory, in which a 15 m2 rainfall simulation facility is available for research. In the BSc level course 'Land and Water Engineering' Student groups will build slopes in the rainfall simulator in specially prepared containers. Aim is to experience the behaviour of different soil types or slope angles when (heavy) rain

  16. Rainfall Downscaling Conditional on Upper-air Atmospheric Predictors: Improved Assessment of Rainfall Statistics in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langousis, Andreas; Mamalakis, Antonis; Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino

    2015-04-01

    To improve the level skill of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) in reproducing the statistics of rainfall at a basin level and at hydrologically relevant temporal scales (e.g. daily), two types of statistical approaches have been suggested. One is the statistical correction of climate model rainfall outputs using historical series of precipitation. The other is the use of stochastic models of rainfall to conditionally simulate precipitation series, based on large-scale atmospheric predictors produced by climate models (e.g. geopotential height, relative vorticity, divergence, mean sea level pressure). The latter approach, usually referred to as statistical rainfall downscaling, aims at reproducing the statistical character of rainfall, while accounting for the effects of large-scale atmospheric circulation (and, therefore, climate forcing) on rainfall statistics. While promising, statistical rainfall downscaling has not attracted much attention in recent years, since the suggested approaches involved complex (i.e. subjective or computationally intense) identification procedures of the local weather, in addition to demonstrating limited success in reproducing several statistical features of rainfall, such as seasonal variations, the distributions of dry and wet spell lengths, the distribution of the mean rainfall intensity inside wet periods, and the distribution of rainfall extremes. In an effort to remedy those shortcomings, Langousis and Kaleris (2014) developed a statistical framework for simulation of daily rainfall intensities conditional on upper air variables, which accurately reproduces the statistical character of rainfall at multiple time-scales. Here, we study the relative performance of: a) quantile-quantile (Q-Q) correction of climate model rainfall products, and b) the statistical downscaling scheme of Langousis and Kaleris (2014), in reproducing the statistical structure of rainfall, as well as rainfall extremes, at a

  17. Un método para el análisis de frecuencia regional de lluvias máximas diarias: aplicación en los Andes bolivianos A method for regional frequency analysis of maximum daily rainfall: application in the Bolivian Andes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Antonio Luna Vera

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Se presenta un análisis de frecuencia regional con series de lluvia diaria máxima anual para una zona con escasa información. La compleja orografía de montañas y el altiplano de una región en la cordillera de Los Andes, Bolivia, produce diferentes patrones de lluvia diaria. La combinación de los Momentos-L y el análisis de conglomerados resultan adecuados para identificarlas regiones homogéneas de las series máximas anuales. El trabajo desarrollado define 4 regiones homogéneas. La región 1 comprende las estaciones ubicadas en el altiplano y la zona Sur Este. La región 2 abarca el altiplano central y la cuenca del Río La Paz, compuesto por cuencas interandinas. La 3 delimita claramente las estaciones de la zona tropical amazónica; y la 4 está compuesta por estaciones ubicadas en las montañas del Norte. Se probaron diversas distribuciones para el análisis regional de frecuencias aplicando la técnica de estaciones-año; los mejores resultados se obtuvieron con las funciones Gumbel y Doble Gumbel. Finalmente se expresan las ecuaciones regionales y se comparan con algunas series puntuales de cada región, con el objeto de verificar la aplicabilidad de la metodología propuesta para fines de diseño hidrológico.A regional frequency analysis of daily annual maximum rainfall series for an area with poor information is presented. The complex topography mountains and the highlands region in the Cordillera de Los Andes, Bolivia, produce different patterns of daily rainfall. The combination of L-Moments and cluster analysis are adequate to identify the homogeneous regions of the annual maximum series. The work defines 4 homogeneous regions. Region 1 includes the stations located in the highlands and south-east. Region 2 covers the central highlands and La Paz River Basin, consisting of inter-Andean basins. Region 3 clearly defines the Amazonian basin stations and 4 is composed of stations located in the northern mountains. Different

  18. Adequacy of satellite derived rainfall data for stream flow modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Artan, G.; Gadain, Hussein; Smith, Jody L.; Asante, Kwasi; Bandaragoda, C.J.; Verdin, J.P.

    2007-01-01

    Floods are the most common and widespread climate-related hazard on Earth. Flood forecasting can reduce the death toll associated with floods. Satellites offer effective and economical means for calculating areal rainfall estimates in sparsely gauged regions. However, satellite-based rainfall estimates have had limited use in flood forecasting and hydrologic stream flow modeling because the rainfall estimates were considered to be unreliable. In this study we present the calibration and validation results from a spatially distributed hydrologic model driven by daily satellite-based estimates of rainfall for sub-basins of the Nile and Mekong Rivers. The results demonstrate the usefulness of remotely sensed precipitation data for hydrologic modeling when the hydrologic model is calibrated with such data. However, the remotely sensed rainfall estimates cannot be used confidently with hydrologic models that are calibrated with rain gauge measured rainfall, unless the model is recalibrated. ?? Springer Science+Business Media, Inc. 2007.

  19. Prediction Research of Climate Change Trends over North China in the Future 30 Years

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Yanxiang; YAN Jinghui; WU Tongwen; GUO Yufu; CHEN Lihua; WANG Jianping

    2008-01-01

    A simulation of climate change trends over North China in the past 50 years and future 30 years was performed with the actual greenhouse gas concentration and IPCC SRES B2 scenario concentration by IAP/LASG GOALS 4.0 (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land system coupled model), developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG),Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). In order to validate the model,the modern climate during 1951-2000 was first simulated by the GOALS model with the actual greenhouse gas concentration, and the simulation results were compared with observed data. The simulation results basically reproduce the lower temperature from the 1960s to mid-1970s and the warming from the 1980sfor the globe and Northern Hemisphere, and better the important cold (1950-1976) and warm (1977-2000)periods in the past 50 years over North China. The correlation coefficient is 0.34 between simulations and observations (significant at a more than 0.05 confidence level). The range of winter temperature departures for North China is between those for the eastern and western China's Mainland. Meanwhile, the summer precipitation trend turning around the 1980s is also successfully simulated. The climate change trends in the future 30 years were simulated with the CO2 concentration under IPCC SRES-B2 emission scenario.The results show that, in the future 30 years, winter temperature will keep a warming trend in North China and increase by about 2.5℃ relative to climate mean (1960-1990). Meanwhile, summer precipitation will obviously increase in North China and decrease in South China, displaying a south-deficit-north-excessive pattern of precipitation.

  20. Daily Democracy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larson, Karin; Giro, Francesca; Graham, Todd

    , it ignores the communicative mundaneness of daily democracy. This paper accordingly in- vestigates and compares the ways in which members of parliament (MPs) in three European countries – Italy, Sweden and United Kingdom – utilize Twit- ter during off-peak periods, focusing on the extent to which social...... media are fostering a more ‘connected’ and reciprocal relationship between citizens and politicians. Throughout many Western democracies, research points to the in- creasing valorisation of Twitter as an informal, intimate and open space for (ev- eryday) political communication, raising important...

  1. Orbital Extension of a Giant Ethmoidal Sinus Osteoma in a 30-Year-old Female

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esmat Karbassi

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Osteoma is a benign tumor rarely found in the paranasal sinuses.   Case Report: A 30-year-old female presented with an 8-month history of proptosis of the right eye that was progressing slowly. She was diagnosed with ethmoid osteoma and managed with collaborative surgery at the ophthalmology and otolaryngology departments. After surgery, the patient suffered visual loss that was managed medically. The surgical steps and protocol used for safe removal are discussed in the report.    Conclusion: Management of a giaint osteoma extending to orbital tissue needs meticulous dissection through open approach and collaborative surgery by otolaryngologist and ophtalmologist

  2. 30 years of Physics Education Research at the University of Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaffer, Peter S.

    2017-01-01

    Over the past 30 years, members of the UW Physics Education Group have examined student learning in courses serving a wide range of populations. Most of the focus has been on elementary, middle, and high school teachers and students in introductory university physics courses, but more recently, the effort has expanded to include physics majors in upper-division courses on quantum mechanics and electrodynamics. In general, the group has taken a practical approach that focuses on identifying instructional strategies that are effective at promoting conceptual understanding and student reasoning ability. Examples will be drawn from across these courses to illustrate common themes and connections.

  3. Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity Over the Past 30 Years: A Global and Dynamic Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Liguang; Wang, Bin; Braun, Scott A.

    2006-01-01

    The hurricane season of 2005 was the busiest on record and Hurricane Katrina (2005) is believed to be the costliest hurricane in U. S. history. There are growing concerns regarding whether this increased tropical cyclone activity is a result of global warming, as suggested by Emanuel(2005) and Webster et al. (2005), or just a natural oscillation (Goldenberg et al. 2001). This study examines the changes in tropical cyclone intensity to see what were really responsible for the changes in tropical cyclone activity over the past 30 years. Since the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) warming also leads to the response of atmospheric circulation, which is not solely determined by the local SST warming, this study suggests that it is better to take the tropical cyclone activities in the North Atlantic (NA), western North Pacific (WNP) and eastern North Pacific (ENP) basins as a whole when searching for the influence of the global-scale SST warming on tropical cyclone intensity. Over the past 30 years, as the tropical SST increased by about 0.5 C, the linear trends indicate 6%, 16% and 15% increases in the overall average intensity and lifetime and the annual frequency. Our analysis shows that the increased annual destructiveness of tropical cyclones reported by Emanuel(2005) resulted mainly from the increases in the average lifetime and annual frequency in the NA basin and from the increases in the average intensity and lifetime in the WNP basin, while the annual destructiveness in the ENP basin generally decreased over the past 30 years. The changes in the proportion of intense tropical cyclones reported by Webster et a1 (2005) were due mainly to the fact that increasing tropical cyclones took the tracks that favor for the development of intense tropical cyclones in the NA and WNP basins over the past 30 years. The dynamic influence associated with the tropical SST warming can lead to the impact of global warming on tropical cyclone intensity that may be very

  4. Gender trends in authorship in oral and maxillofacial surgery literature: A 30-year analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nkenke, Emeka; Seemann, Rudolf; Vairaktaris, Elefterios; Schaller, Hans-Günter; Rohde, Maximilian; Stelzle, Florian; Knipfer, Christian

    2015-07-01

    The aim of the present study was to perform a bibliometric analysis of the gender distribution of first and senior authorships in important oral and maxillofacial journals over the 30-year period from 1980 to 2010. Articles published in three representative oral and maxillofacial surgery journals were selected. The years 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2010 were chosen as representative points in time for article selection. Original research, case reports, technical notes, and reviews were included in the analysis. Case reports and technical notes were pooled in one group. For each article, the gender of the first author as well as that of the senior author was determined, based on the inspection of their first name. The type of article was determined and the country of origin of the article was documented. A total 1412 articles were subjected to the data analysis. A significant increase in female authorship in oral and maxillofacial surgery could be identified over the chosen 30-year period. However, the number of publications by male authors was still significantly higher at all points of time, exceeding those of female authors by at least 3.8 fold in 2010. As there is a trend towards feminization of medicine and dentistry, the results of the present study may serve as the basis for further analysis of the current situation, and the identification of necessary actions to accelerate the closure of the gender gap in publishing in oral and maxillofacial surgery.

  5. Clostridium difficile 30 years on: what has, or has not, changed and why?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerding, Dale N

    2009-03-01

    The report of clindamycin-associated colitis in 1974 by Tedesco et al. [Ann Intern Med 81: 429-33] stimulated an intense search for the cause of this severe complication of antibiotic use. The search culminated in early 1978 in the publication of a series of papers within 3 months that identified the causative agent as Clostridium difficile and its accompanying toxins. Thirty years later we are in the midst of a resurgence of C. difficile infection (CDI) in North America and Europe that is greater than ever previously reported and for which morbidity and mortality appear to be higher than ever seen in the past. The purpose of this review is to highlight the discoveries of the past 30 years that, in my view, have brought us to our current level of understanding of the pathogenesis, prevention and treatment of CDI, and to suggest why a disease thought to be managed so well 30 years ago could now be causing more morbidity and mortality than ever before. In the 21st century the focus should be on better understanding the relationship between the C. difficile organism and the host at the mucosal level, so that biotherapeutic and vaccine strategies for the prevention of CDI can be developed.

  6. The relationship between the Guinea Highlands and the West African offshore rainfall maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, H. L.; Young, G. S.; Evans, J. L.; Fuentes, J. D.; Núñez Ocasio, K. M.

    2017-01-01

    Satellite rainfall estimates reveal a consistent rainfall maximum off the West African coast during the monsoon season. An analysis of 16 years of rainfall in the monsoon season is conducted to explore the drivers of such copious amounts of rainfall. Composites of daily rainfall and midlevel meridional winds centered on the days with maximum rainfall show that the day with the heaviest rainfall follows the strongest midlevel northerlies but coincides with peak low-level moisture convergence. Rain type composites show that convective rain dominates the study region. The dominant contribution to the offshore rainfall maximum is convective development driven by the enhancement of upslope winds near the Guinea Highlands. The enhancement in the upslope flow is closely related to African easterly waves propagating off the continent that generate low-level cyclonic vorticity and convergence. Numerical simulations reproduce the observed rainfall maximum and indicate that it weakens if the African topography is reduced.

  7. Associations of education with 30 year life course blood pressure trajectories: Framingham Offspring Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao Yongling

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Education is inversely associated with cardiovascular disease incidence in developed countries. Blood pressure may be an explanatory biological mechanism. However few studies have investigated educational gradients in longitudinal blood pressure trajectories, particularly over substantial proportions of the life course. Study objectives were to determine whether low education was associated with increased blood pressure from multiple longitudinal assessments over 30 years. Furthermore, we aimed to separate antecedent effects of education, and other related factors, that might have caused baseline differences in blood pressure, from potential long-term effects of education on post-baseline blood pressure changes. Methods The study examined 3890 participants of the Framingham Offspring Study (mean age 36.7 years, 52.0% females at baseline from 1971 through 2001 at up to 7 separate examinations using multivariable mixed linear models. Results Mixed linear models demonstrated that mean systolic blood pressure (SBP over 30 years was higher for participants with ≤12 vs. ≥17 years education after adjusting for age (3.26 mmHg, 95% CI: 1.46, 5.05 in females, 2.26 mmHg, 95% CI: 0.87, 3.66 in males. Further adjustment for conventional covariates (antihypertensive medication, smoking, body mass index and alcohol reduced differences in females and males (2.86, 95% CI: 1.13, 4.59, and 1.25, 95% CI: -0.16, 2.66 mmHg, respectively. Additional analyses adjusted for baseline SBP, to evaluate if there may be educational contributions to post-baseline SBP. In analyses adjusted for age and baseline SBP, females with ≤12 years education had 2.69 (95% CI: 1.09, 4.30 mmHg higher SBP over follow-up compared with ≥17 years education. Further adjustment for aforementioned covariates slightly reduced effect strength (2.53 mmHg, 95% CI: 0.93, 4.14. Associations were weaker in males, where those with ≤12 years education had 1.20 (95% CI: -0

  8. Pattern-oriented memory interpolation of sparse historical rainfall records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matos, J. P.; Cohen Liechti, T.; Portela, M. M.; Schleiss, A. J.

    2014-03-01

    The pattern-oriented memory (POM) is a novel historical rainfall interpolation method that explicitly takes into account the time dimension in order to interpolate areal rainfall maps. The method is based on the idea that rainfall patterns exist and can be identified over a certain area by means of non-linear regressions. Having been previously benchmarked with a vast array of interpolation methods using proxy satellite data under different time and space availabilities, in the scope of the present contribution POM is applied to rain gauge data in order to produce areal rainfall maps. Tested over the Zambezi River Basin for the period from 1979 to 1997 (accurate satellite rainfall estimates based on spaceborne instruments are not available for dates prior to 1998), the novel pattern-oriented memory historical interpolation method has revealed itself as a better alternative than Kriging or Inverse Distance Weighing in the light of a Monte Carlo cross-validation procedure. Superior in most metrics to the other tested interpolation methods, in terms of the Pearson correlation coefficient and bias the accuracy of POM's historical interpolation results are even comparable with that of recent satellite rainfall products. The new method holds the possibility of calculating detailed and performing daily areal rainfall estimates, even in the case of sparse rain gauging grids. Besides their performance, the similarity to satellite rainfall estimates inherent to POM interpolations can contribute to substantially extend the length of the rainfall series used in hydrological models and water availability studies in remote areas.

  9. Neurological effects of white spirit: Contribution of animal studies during a 30-year period

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Gunnar Damgård; Lund, Søren Peter; Ladefoged, Ole

    2006-01-01

    , but the neurophysiological tests showed adverse effects at this level. Fourth, neurophysiological methods may be more sensitive than histopathological, neurobehavioural and neurochemical methods. Overall, white spirit with a high and a low content of aromatics showed no overt difference in long-term effects in animals......Numerous studies have suggested that long-term occupational exposure to white spirit may cause chronic toxic encephalopathy (WHO 1996). This review summarizes the chronic nervous system effects of white spirit in animal studies during a 30-year period. First, routine histopathology was consistently...... unable to reveal adverse peripheral or central nervous system effects after inhalation of white spirit. Second, neurobehavioural studies in animals showed no adverse effect after inhalation of white spirit with a high content of aromatics in contrast to what was found with products with a low content...

  10. 30-Year Satellite Record Reveals Accelerated Arctic Sea Ice Loss, Antarctic Sea Ice Trend Reversal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavalieri, Donald J.; Parkinson, C. L.; Vinnikov, K. Y.

    2003-01-01

    Arctic sea ice extent decreased by 0.30 plus or minus 0.03 x 10(exp 6) square kilometers per decade from 1972 through 2002, but decreased by 0.36 plus or minus 0.05 x 10(exp 6) square kilometers per decade from 1979 through 2002, indicating an acceleration of 20% in the rate of decrease. In contrast to the Arctic, the Antarctic sea ice extent decreased dramatically over the period 1973-1977, then gradually increased, with an overall 30-year trend of -0.15 plus or minus 0.08 x 10(exp 6) square kilometers per 10yr. The trend reversal is attributed to a large positive anomaly in Antarctic sea ice extent observed in the early 1970's.

  11. A case of lupus vulgaris with rare localization diagnosed 30 years after onset.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laudańska, H; Reduta, T; Zalewski, G; Chodynicka, B

    2011-01-01

    Cutaneous tuberculosis (tuberculosis cutis) is one of the extrapulmonary forms of tuberculosis, which may affect the skin only or co-exist with tuberculosis of other organs, particularly the lungs. We describe a case of lupus vulgaris in a 72-year-old male patient with a single lesion localized on his lower extremity, developing for 30 years before correct diagnosis and previously treated with topical steroids. Bacillus infection in other organs was not detected. Diagnosis of tuberculosis was made based on personal history, clinical picture, hypersensitivity to tuberculin, histopathology and polymerase chain reaction. A multidrug therapy with rifampicin, isoniazid and pyrazinamide resulted in regression of the lesion. The common lack of knowledge about the clinical picture of cutaneous tuberculosis causes its late diagnosis and treatment.

  12. SEARCH OF INHIBITORS OF HERPES VIRAL REPLICATION: 30 YEARS AFTER ACYCLOVIR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Korovina A. N.

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Analysis of study and using of different chemical compounds as inhibitors of herpes virus replication is given in the review. However, it does not apply for full details of all the studies on active antiherpetic drugs finding. It’s been over 30 years since the discovery of the first antiherpetic drugs ? acyclovir. Meanwhile, lots of active chemical compounds appeared that have been brought to the antiviral drugs. An essential understanding of strategies for finding drugs came in, one of which was establishment of depot forms of antiherpetic drugs. On the basis of the vast published experimental material the authors concluded that the study of the herpes virus and search for inhibitors of its replication is still an important issue and requires the efforts of chemists, biologists, pharmacists.

  13. Post-gastrectomy patients need to be followed up for 20-30 years

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Frank I. Tovey; Michael Hobsley

    2000-01-01

    AIM To investigate the incidence andmanagement of nutritional deficiencies followinga gastrectomy.METHODS A gastrectomy population of 227patients in London was followed up for 30 years after operation to detect and treat nutritional deficiencies.RESULTS By the end of the first decade iron deficiency was the commonest problem. Vitamin B12 deficiency became more important in the second decade. During the third decade both reached equal prevalence, being found in some 90% of the female and 70% of the male residual population. Vitamin D deficiency was a lesser problem, reaching its climax in the second decade. Overall, all women fared worse than men.CONCLUSION The importance of long-term follow-up of gastrectomy patients for iron,Vitamin B12 and Vitamin D deficiencies is emphasised.

  14. [Maternal mortality in Brazil: what has the scientific literature shown in the last 30 years?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morse, Marcia Lait; Fonseca, Sandra Costa; Barbosa, Mariane Doelinger; Calil, Manuele Bonatto; Eyer, Fernanda Pinella Carvalhal

    2011-04-01

    The aim of this study was to analyze maternal mortality in Brazil in the last 30 years, by means of a literature review. The authors performed an electronic search of scientific articles from 1980 to 2010 in LILACS and MEDLINE and found 486 abstracts, of which 50 articles were selected. Studies showed a decrease in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR), although varying across regions of the country. A few articles evaluated maternal mortality factors, identifying social inequalities associated with skin color and schooling. There was persistent underreporting of maternal deaths and inadequate completion of death certificates. Direct obstetric causes were the most frequent, mainly hypertensive diseases of pregnancy. Analysis of avoidability revealed deficiencies in prenatal and childbirth care. Despite the relevance of maternal mortality in Brazil, there are few studies on the subject. Although MMR has decreased, it is still above the desired levels. Improvements are thus needed in the quality of prenatal and perinatal care.

  15. Recurrent diplopia over a 30-year period: natural history of a Lewis and Sumner syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lefaucheur, Romain; Bouwyn, Jean Paul; Wallon, David; Bedat-Millet, Anne-Laure; Ahtoy, Patrick; Perot, Guillaume; Hannequin, Didier; Maltête, David

    2012-06-01

    We described the case of a patient with recurrent episodes of isolated diplopia over the last 30 years. On her last event, neurological examination revealed not only a right third and sixth cranial nerves involvement, but also a right peripheral facial palsy and a motor weakness on the left ulnar territory. Electrophysiological nerves motor conduction study revealed a conduction block on the left ulnar nerve and a less severe on the right ulnar nerve. Asymmetrical upper limb sensorimotor weakness combined with conduction block and cranial nerves palsy led to a diagnosis of Lewis and Sumner syndrome (LSS). This case is unusual by the presentation of the disease and is, to our knowledge the longer natural disease course of LSS reported. Moreover, it suggests that the recurrent diplopia variant may represent a separate entity with a good prognosis even in absence of invasive treatment.

  16. Treatment outcomes, quality of life, and impact of hemophilia on young adults (aged 18-30 years) with hemophilia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witkop, Michelle; Guelcher, Christine; Forsyth, Angela; Hawk, Sarah; Curtis, Randall; Kelley, Laureen; Frick, Neil; Rice, Michelle; Rosu, Gabriela; Cooper, David L

    2015-12-01

    The Hemophilia Experiences, Results and Opportunities (HERO) initiative assessed psychosocial issues reported by people with moderate to severe hemophilia and was led by a multidisciplinary international advisory board. This analysis reports data from young adult respondents (aged 18-30 years), including both US and overall global (including US respondents) results, and investigates treatment outcomes, quality of life, and impacts of hemophilia on relationships. More young adults in HERO received prophylaxis than on-demand treatment, although a majority reported not using factor products exactly as prescribed, and 50% of global respondents and 26% of US respondents reported issues with access to factor replacement therapy in the previous 5 years. Many young adults with hemophilia reported comorbidities, including bone/skeletal arthritis, chronic pain, and viral infections, and nearly half of young adults reported anxiety/depression. Most reported pain interference with daily activities in the past 4 weeks, although a majority reported participating in lower-risk activities and approximately half in intermediate-risk activities. Most young adults were very or quite satisfied with the support of partners/spouses, family, and friends, although roughly one-third reported that hemophilia affected their ability to develop close relationships with a partner. A majority of young adults reported that hemophilia has had a negative impact on employment, and 62% of global respondents and 78% of US respondents were employed at least part-time. Together these data highlight the psychosocial issues experienced by young adults with hemophilia and suggest that increased focus on these issues may improve comprehensive care during the transition to adulthood.

  17. Treatment results of glioblastoma during the last 30 years in a single institute.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumabe, Toshihiro; Saito, Ryuta; Kanamori, Masayuki; Chonan, Masashi; Mano, Yui; Shibahara, Ichiyo; Kawaguchi, Tomohiro; Kato, Hideaki; Yamashita, Yoji; Sonoda, Yukihiko; Kawagishi, Jun; Jokura, Hidefumi; Watanabe, Mika; Katakura, Ryuichi; Kayama, Takamasa; Tominaga, Teiji

    2013-01-01

    Treatment results of glioblastoma (GB) during the last 30 years in Tohoku University were analyzed to identify any improvements in patient outcome in all 332 histologically proven cases of newly diagnosed GB treated consecutively in our department between 1982 and 2011. These 30 years was divided into 5 treatment eras, Group 1 (1982-1988, without preoperative evaluation by magnetic resonance [MR] imaging, n = 46), Group 2 (1989-1996, with preoperative MR imaging, n = 41), Group 3 (1997-1999, additionally underwent intraoperative functional brain mapping and neuronavigation system, n = 38), Group 4 (2000-August 2006, underwent 30 Gy of whole brain radiation followed by 30 Gy of extended local accelerated hyperfractionated radiation therapy, n = 96), and Group 5 (September 2006-2011, adjuvant usage of temozolomide [TMZ], n = 111). Overall survival (OS) was calculated from the date of surgery to the death from any cause. The median survival time/2-year OS/5-year OS of Groups 1 to 5 were 10.7 months/10.9%/0%, 17.3 months/26.2%/6.9%, 15.9 months/23.7%/5.3%, 20.1 months/34.8%/15.5%, and 20.9 months/45.5%/19.7%. The prognosis for patients with GB improved significantly after the introduction of MR imaging. Younger GB, defined as patients aged below 60 years, or total tumor resection with all ages in Group 5 had 5-year 0S of 31.0% and 30.1%, respectively. The prognosis of GB was improved significantly after the introduction of TMZ for elderly GB, recursive partitioning analysis class 5, or totally resected GB. Introduction of MR imaging and TMZ, and total resection of the tumor were important in the improvement of outcome for patients with GB.

  18. Validation of a 30+ year soil moisture record from multi-satellite observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Jeu, R.; Dorigo, W.; Wagner, W.; Chung, D.; Parinussa, R.; van der Werf, G.; Liu, Y.; Mittelbach, H.; Hirschi, M.

    2012-12-01

    As part of the ESA Climate Change Initiative soil moisture project a 30+ year consistent soil moisture dataset is currently in development by harmonizing retrievals from both passive and active microwave satellite observations. The harmonization of these datasets incorporates the advantage of both microwave techniques and spans the entire period from 1978 onwards. A statistical methodology based on scaling, ranking and blending was developed to address differences in sensor specifications to create one consistent dataset. A soil moisture dataset provided by a land surface model (GLDAS-1-Noah) was used to scale the different satellite-based products to the same range. The blending of the active and passive datasets was based on their respective performance, which is closely related to vegetation cover. While this approach imposes the absolute values of the land surface model dataset to the final product, it preserves the relative dynamics (e.g., seasonality, inter-annual variations) and trends of the original satellite derived retrievals. Different validation methods were performed to quantify the skill of the various soil moisture datasets at different temporal and spatial scales. In situ data from the International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN) were used to calculate the local correlation (both Pearson and Spearman) and Root Mean Square Difference between ground observations and the satellite retrievals for different climate regimes. In addition a triple collocation analysis was applied on the passive and active satellite products in order to analyze the error structures at a global scale for the different sensors. Furthermore, indirect proxies like tree ring width data were used to study the consistency of the inter-annual variability within the 30+ year dataset. The combination of these techniques revealed a strong dynamical behavior in data quality in both time and space. In the future this additional information on error dynamics could be used to further

  19. A Bibliographic Study of Drug Abuse Research during last 30 years in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Afarin Rahimi Movaghar

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available In the last decades, the produced science has been significantly increased in the field of drug abuse, globally. The objective of this study was to assess the bibliographic aspects of the science produced in Iran on drug abuse in the last 30 years. All scientific papers published from Iran in a 30-year period (1973-2002 in national as well as international scientific journals were assessed for this study. These papers are indexed in the database for Iranian Mental Health Researches, called IranPsych. The total number of 218 papers on drug and drug abuse were found and assessed by six psychiatrists and psychologists with good inter-rater reliability. About half of these papers were published in the last two years. About half of the papers have been published in the Persian medical journals. One-third have been published in international journals. Overall, 449 authors contributed to the 218 published papers from whom 80 percent had only one paper. Half of the papers were written by only 15 authors (3.3 percent. Most of the authors were Medical Doctors and from Medical Universities. None of the researches was received financial support from pharmacologic industries. This study shows that in recent years, the increase in the publication of the researches conducted on drug abuse has been significant. Nevertheless, according to the high prevalence of drug abuse problem in Iran and improvements in the scientific, as well as executive structures, the whole scientific output is insignificant. The findings guide us to a more systematic approach toward training of researchers and promotion of resaerch in this area. Moreover, more active involvement of social scientists and publication of their research findings are recommended.

  20. A gridded hourly rainfall dataset for the UK applied to a national physically-based modelling system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Elizabeth; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Quinn, Niall; Freer, Jim; Coxon, Gemma; Woods, Ross; Bates, Paul; Fowler, Hayley

    2016-04-01

    An hourly gridded rainfall product has great potential for use in many hydrological applications that require high temporal resolution meteorological data. One important example of this is flood risk management, with flooding in the UK highly dependent on sub-daily rainfall intensities amongst other factors. Knowledge of sub-daily rainfall intensities is therefore critical to designing hydraulic structures or flood defences to appropriate levels of service. Sub-daily rainfall rates are also essential inputs for flood forecasting, allowing for estimates of peak flows and stage for flood warning and response. In addition, an hourly gridded rainfall dataset has significant potential for practical applications such as better representation of extremes and pluvial flash flooding, validation of high resolution climate models and improving the representation of sub-daily rainfall in weather generators. A new 1km gridded hourly rainfall dataset for the UK has been created by disaggregating the daily Gridded Estimates of Areal Rainfall (CEH-GEAR) dataset using comprehensively quality-controlled hourly rain gauge data from over 1300 observation stations across the country. Quality control measures include identification of frequent tips, daily accumulations and dry spells, comparison of daily totals against the CEH-GEAR daily dataset, and nearest neighbour checks. The quality control procedure was validated against historic extreme rainfall events and the UKCP09 5km daily rainfall dataset. General use of the dataset has been demonstrated by testing the sensitivity of a physically-based hydrological modelling system for Great Britain to the distribution and rates of rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. Of the sensitivity tests undertaken, the largest improvements in model performance were seen when an hourly gridded rainfall dataset was combined with potential evapotranspiration disaggregated to hourly intervals, with 61% of catchments showing an increase in NSE between

  1. RAINFALL ANALYSIS IN KLANG RIVER BASIN USING CONTINUOUS WAVELET TRANSFORM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Celso A. G. Santos

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The rainfall characteristics within Klang River basin is analyzed by the continuous wavelet transform using monthly rainfall data (1997–2009 from a raingauge and also using daily rainfall data (1998–2013 from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM. The wavelet power spectrum showed that some frequency components were presented within the rainfall time series, but the observed time series is short to provide accurate information, thus the daily TRMM rainfall data were used. In such analysis, two main frequency components, i.e., 6 and 12 months, showed to be present during the entire period of 16 years. Such semiannual and annual frequencies were confirmed by the global wavelet power spectra. Finally, the modulation in the 8–16-month and 256– 512-day bands were examined by an average of all scales between 8 and 16 months, and 256 and 512 days, respectively, giving a measure of the average monthly/daily variance versus time, where the periods with low or high variance could be identified.

  2. Are extreme rainfall intensities more frequent? Analysis of trends in rainfall patterns relevant to urban drainage systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Toffol, S; Laghari, A N; Rauch, W

    2009-01-01

    The fact that climate change is affecting the intensity and frequency of rainfall is well accepted in the scientific community. This is backed by a multitude of reports on the basis of daily rainfall series analysis; however, little research is available for short duration intensities. Due to its significant influence on the behaviour of urban drainage, it is critical to investigate the changes in short duration rainfall intensities. In this study different intensities relevant for the urban drainage and the total rainfall per rain event are analysed. The trend is investigated using the Mann-Kendall test. The rainfall series analysed are from the alpine region Tyrol. The results present differences depending on the duration of the intensity and the series considered, however an increase in the number of extreme events is detectable for short durations for the most series.

  3. National Library of Medicine Celebrates 30 Years of Progress and Charts the Future | NIH MedlinePlus the Magazine

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... of this page please turn JavaScript on. National Library of Medicine Celebrates 30 Years of Progress and ... me to imagine a world without the National Library of Medicine." Photo courtesy of NIH NLM Director ...

  4. Factors driving mortality and growth at treeline: a 30-year experiment of 92 000 conifers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbeito, Ignacio; Dawes, Melissa A; Rixen, Christian; Senn, Josef; Bebi, Peter

    2012-02-01

    Understanding the interplay between environmental factors contributing to treeline formation and how these factors influence different life stages remains a major research challenge. We used an afforestation experiment including 92 000 trees to investigate the spatial and temporal dynamics of tree mortality and growth at treeline in the Swiss Alps. Seedlings of three high-elevation conifer species (Larix decidua, Pinus mugo ssp. uncinata, and Pinus cembra) were systematically planted along an altitudinal gradient at and above the current treeline (2075 to 2230 m above sea level [a.s.l.]) in 1975 and closely monitored during the following 30 years. We used decision-tree models and generalized additive models to identify patterns in mortality and growth along gradients in elevation, snow duration, wind speed, and solar radiation, and to quantify interactions between the different variables. For all three species, snowmelt date was always the most important environmental factor influencing mortality, and elevation was always the most important factor for growth over the entire period studied. Individuals of all species survived at the highest point of the afforestation for more than 30 years, although mortality was greater above 2160 m a.s.l., 50-100 m above the current treeline. Optimal conditions for height growth differed from those for survival in all three species: early snowmelt (ca. day of year 125-140 [where day 1 is 1 January]) yielded lowest mortality rates, but relatively later snowmelt (ca. day 145-150) yielded highest growth rates. Although snowmelt and elevation were important throughout all life stages of the trees, the importance of radiation decreased over time and that of wind speed increased. Our findings provide experimental evidence that tree survival and height growth require different environmental conditions and that even small changes in the duration of snow cover, in addition to changes in temperature, can strongly impact tree survival and

  5. Antihistamines and driving ability: Evidence from 30 years Dutch on-road driving research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verster, J.C.; Van De Loo, A.J.A.E.; Garssen, J.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Since all antihistamines are capable of crossing the blood-brain barrier, they may also cause sedation which may impair daily activities such as driving a car. The purpose of this review was to examine the effects of antihistamines on driving ability. Method: A literature search revealed

  6. Partitioning the impacts of spatial and climatological rainfall variability in urban drainage modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peleg, Nadav; Blumensaat, Frank; Molnar, Peter; Fatichi, Simone; Burlando, Paolo

    2017-03-01

    The performance of urban drainage systems is typically examined using hydrological and hydrodynamic models where rainfall input is uniformly distributed, i.e., derived from a single or very few rain gauges. When models are fed with a single uniformly distributed rainfall realization, the response of the urban drainage system to the rainfall variability remains unexplored. The goal of this study was to understand how climate variability and spatial rainfall variability, jointly or individually considered, affect the response of a calibrated hydrodynamic urban drainage model. A stochastic spatially distributed rainfall generator (STREAP - Space-Time Realizations of Areal Precipitation) was used to simulate many realizations of rainfall for a 30-year period, accounting for both climate variability and spatial rainfall variability. The generated rainfall ensemble was used as input into a calibrated hydrodynamic model (EPA SWMM - the US EPA's Storm Water Management Model) to simulate surface runoff and channel flow in a small urban catchment in the city of Lucerne, Switzerland. The variability of peak flows in response to rainfall of different return periods was evaluated at three different locations in the urban drainage network and partitioned among its sources. The main contribution to the total flow variability was found to originate from the natural climate variability (on average over 74 %). In addition, the relative contribution of the spatial rainfall variability to the total flow variability was found to increase with longer return periods. This suggests that while the use of spatially distributed rainfall data can supply valuable information for sewer network design (typically based on rainfall with return periods from 5 to 15 years), there is a more pronounced relevance when conducting flood risk assessments for larger return periods. The results show the importance of using multiple distributed rainfall realizations in urban hydrology studies to capture the

  7. Trends in rainfall erosivity (1955-2006) over the Ebro basin; Tendencias en la erosividad de la lluvia (1955-2006) en la cuenca del Ebro

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Angulo Martinez, M.; Vicente Serrano, S. M.; Begueria, S.

    2009-07-01

    Rainfall is one of the main factors affecting soil erosion. This effect is summarized in the concept or rainfall erosivity which involves the drop size distribution and kinetic energy of an event, its duration and intensity, and the runoff that generates. To calculate rainfall erosivity several indices can be applied. The most extensively used is the R factor of the Revised Universal soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). To compute this index continuous rainfall data are needed. This kind of data is difficult to obtain with a good spatial and temporal coverage. In this work, daily rainfall records have been converted into daily rainfall erosivity data. For this objective, we used the Richardson et al. (1983) exponential relationship between rainfall volume and rainfall erosivity to create the Daily Rainfall Erosivity Model (DREM). (Author) 4 refs.

  8. Changes in Extreme Events as Simulated by a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model for the Next 20-30 Years over China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Ji-Yun; SHI Ying; GAO Xue-Jie

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, the changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over the next 20-30 years (2021-2050) in relative to the present day (1986-2005) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario are analyzed based on a high-resolution climate change simulation performed by a regional climate model (the Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) RegCM3). The extreme indices of summer days (SU), frost days (FD), and growing season length (GSL) for temperature and simple daily intensity index (SDII), number of days with precipitation ≥10 mm d-1 (R10), and consecutive dry days (CDD) for precipitation are used as the indicators of the extremes. The results show that the indices simulated by RegCM3 in the present day show good agreement with the observed. A general increase in SU, a decrease in FD, and an increase in GSL are found to occur in the next 20-30 years over China. A general increase in SDII, an increase in R10 over western China, and a decrease in R10 in north, northeast, and central China are simulated by the model. Changes in CDD are characterized by a decrease in the north and an increase in the south and the Tibetan Plateau.

  9. Divergent Arctic-Boreal Vegetation Changes between North America and Eurasia over the Past 30 Years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arindam Samanta

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Arctic-Boreal region—mainly consisting of tundra, shrub lands, and boreal forests—has been experiencing an amplified warming over the past 30 years. As the main driving force of vegetation growth in the north, temperature exhibits tight coupling with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI—a proxy to photosynthetic activity. However, the comparison between North America (NA and northern Eurasia (EA shows a weakened spatial dependency of vegetation growth on temperature changes in NA during the past decade. If this relationship holds over time, it suggests a 2/3 decrease in vegetation growth under the same rate of warming in NA, while the vegetation response in EA stays the same. This divergence accompanies a circumpolar widespread greening trend, but 20 times more browning in the Boreal NA compared to EA, and comparative greening and browning trends in the Arctic. These observed spatial patterns of NDVI are consistent with the temperature record, except in the Arctic NA, where vegetation exhibits a similar long-term trend of greening to EA under less warming. This unusual growth pattern in Arctic NA could be due to a lack of precipitation velocity compared to the temperature velocity, when taking velocity as a measure of northward migration of climatic conditions.

  10. The virtual brain: 30 years of video-game play and cognitive abilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew James Latham

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Forty years have passed since video-games were first made widely available to the public and subsequently playing games has become a favourite past-time for many. Players continuously engage with dynamic visual displays with success contingent on the time-pressured deployment, and flexible allocation, of attention as well as precise bimanual movements. Evidence to date suggests that both brief and extensive exposure to video-game play can result in a broad range of enhancements to various cognitive faculties that generalize beyond the original context. Despite promise, video-game research is host to a number of methodological issues that require addressing before progress can be made in this area. Here an effort is made to consolidate the past 30 years of literature examining the effects of video-game play on cognitive faculties and, more recently, neural systems. Future work is required to identify the mechanism that allows the act of video-game play to generate such a broad range of generalized enhancements.

  11. 30 Years on Selected Issues in the Prevention of HIV among Persons Who Inject Drugs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. C. Des Jarlais

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available After 30 years of extensive research on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV among persons who inject drugs (PWID, we now have a good understanding of the critical issues involved. Following the discovery of HIV in 1981, epidemics among PWID were noted in many countries, and consensus recommendations for interventions for reducing injection related HIV transmission have been developed. While high-income countries have continued to develop and implement new Harm Reduction programs, most low-/middle-income countries have implemented Harm Reduction at very low levels. Modeling of combined prevention programming including needle exchange (NSP and antiretroviral therapy (ARV suggests that NSP be given the highest priority. Future HIV prevention programming should continue to provide Harm Reduction programs for PWID coupled with interventions aimed at reducing sexual transmission. As HIV continues to spread in low- and middle-income countries, it is important to achieve and maintain high coverage of Harm Reduction programs in these locations. As PWID almost always experience multiple health problems, it will be important to address these multiple problems within a comprehensive approach grounded in a human rights perspective.

  12. International Standards for Properties and Performance of Advanced Ceramics - 30 years of Excellence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, Michael G.; Salem, Jonathan A.; Helfinstine, John; Quinn, George D.; Gonczy, Stephen T.

    2016-01-01

    Mechanical and physical properties/performance of brittle bodies (e.g., advanced ceramics and glasses) can be difficult to measure correctly unless the proper techniques are used. For three decades, ASTM Committee C28 on Advanced Ceramics, has developed numerous full-consensus standards (e.g., test methods, practices, guides, terminology) to measure various properties and performance of a monolithic and composite ceramics and coatings that, in some cases, may be applicable to glasses. These standards give the "what, how, how not, why, why not, etc." for many mechanical, physical, thermal, properties and performance of advanced ceramics. Use of these standards provides accurate, reliable, repeatable and complete data. Involvement in ASTM Committee C28 has included users, producers, researchers, designers, academicians, etc. who write, continually update, and validate through round robin test programmes, more than 45 standards in the 30 years since the Committee's inception in 1986. Included in this poster is a pictogram of the ASTM Committee C28 standards and how to obtain them either as i) individual copies with full details or ii) a complete collection in one volume. A listing of other ASTM committees of interest is included. In addition, some examples of the tangible benefits of standards for advanced ceramics are employed to demonstrate their practical application.

  13. Recurrent ectopic pancreatitis of the jejunum and mesentery over a 30-year period

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    John CT Wong; Charlotte Robinson; Edward C Jones; Alison Harris; Charles Zwirewich; Robert Wakefield; Richard K Simons; Eric M Yoshida

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Ectopic pancreas is defined as pancreatic tissue found outside its usual anatomical position, with no ductal or vascular communication with the native pancreas. We describe a case of ectopic pancreas of the small bowel and mesentery causing recurrent episodes of pancreatitis, initially suspected on computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP), and confirmed on histological review of the resection. METHODS: A 67-year-old woman presented with clinical symptoms and biochemical evidence of pancreatitis. She had similar episodes over the past 30 years with unrevealing investi-gations, and was concluded to have idiopathic pancreatitis. She underwent CT and MRCP, with findings suggestive of ectopic pancreas, a diagnosis confirmed on histology of the resection. RESULTS: MRCP identified a mass in the proximal small bowel mesentery isointense to the native pancreas, with a small duct draining into a proximal jejunal loop. The resected specimen consisted of normal parenchyma with lobulated acinar tissue with scattered islets of Langerhans, an occasional ductular structure, and admixed areas of adipose tissue. The patient remained asymptomatic with normal biochemistry six months post-operatively. CONCLUSION: In an individual with abdominal pain, elevated serum amylase/lipase, but imaging findings of a normal native pancreas, ectopic pancreatitis should be considered, and can be evaluated by CT and MRCP.

  14. Paraganglioma, neuroblastoma, and a SDHB mutation: Resolution of a 30-year-old mystery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schimke, R Neil; Collins, Debra L; Stolle, Catherine A

    2010-06-01

    Familial paraganglioma/pheochromocytoma (PGL/PCC) is genetically heterogenous with mutations in three of the four subunits of the heterotetrameric mitochondrial complex II enzyme succinate dehydrogenase (SDH) being causally responsible for the majority of cases. In addition to PGL/PCC an array of non-paraganglial tumors have been described in affected individuals. We present a 30-year follow-up on the family of a deceased patient who synchronously developed malignant neuroblastoma (NBL), PCC, and renal cell carcinoma (RCC). Other family members with late onset disease have come to our attention, and molecular study revealed a mutation in the SDHB gene. Despite the embryologic relationship, NBL has been seen in only two previous patients with familial PGL/PCC, both with deletions of the SDHB gene. Review of the literature suggests the lack of a reported association between NBL and familial PGL/PCC may be an ascertainment bias. We further suggest that study of the SDH genes in NBL survivors who develop secondary solid tumors, particularly RCC, may correct this bias, and provide for more effective and comprehensive tumor screening in this patient population.

  15. Noncancer mortality based on the Hiroshima Atomic Bomb survivors registry over 30 years, 1968-1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kasagi, Keiko [Hiroshima Univ. (Japan). Research Inst. for Radiation Biology and Medicine

    2002-04-01

    The relation of radiation exposure with noncancer mortality was examined on 44,514 atomic bomb survivors (17,935 males, 26,579 females, and mean age 22.8{+-}15.7 yrs at the time of bombing) registered at Research Institute for Radiation Biology and Medicine, Hiroshima University, based on mortality follow-up over 30 years, 1968-1997. Noncancer mortality was significantly related to radiation dose with relative risk of 1.06 at 1 Sv radiation dose, although weaker than the dose response in solid cancer mortality. The significant dose responses were observed especially in circulatory disease, stroke and urinary organ disease, and suggestive dose response in pneumonia. The temporal pattern in dose response by age at the time of bombing indicated that the relative risk of noncancer mortality was higher with follow-up period, which is contrary to a decreasing dose response in solid cancer mortality with follow-up period. The tendency was remarkable in those survivors younger at the time of bombing. These findings suggest that the significant radiation risk observed in noncancer mortality might increase as the proportion of younger survivors among atomic bomb survivors increases. (author)

  16. [Spatiotemporal variation of soil pH in Guangdong Province of China in past 30 years].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Zhi-Xing; Wang, Jing; Chai, Min; Chen, Ze-Peng; Zhan, Zhen-Shou; Zheng, Wu-Ping; Wei, Xiu-Guo

    2011-02-01

    Based on the 1980s' soil inventory data and the 2002-2007 soil pH data of Guangdong Province, the spatiotemporal variation of soil pH in the Province in past 30 years was studied. In the study period, the spatial distribution pattern of soil pH in the Province had less change (mainly acidic), except that in Pearl River Delta and parts of Qingyuan and Shaoguan (weak alkaline). The overall variation of soil pH was represented as acidification, with the average pH value changed from 5.70 to 5.44. Among the soil types in the Province, alluvial soil had an increased pH, lateritic red soil, paddy soil, and red soil had a large decrement of pH value, and lime soil was most obvious in the decrease of pH value and its area percentage. The soil acidification was mainly induced by soil characteristics, some natural factors such as acid rain, and human factors such as unreasonable fertilization and urbanization. In addition, industrialization and mining increased the soil pH in some areas.

  17. From Energy Audits to Home Performance: 30 Years of Articles in Home Energy Magazine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meier, Alan

    2014-08-11

    Home Energy Magazine has been publishing articles about residential energy efficiency for 30 years. Its goal has been to disseminate technically reliable and neutral information to the practitioners, that is, professionals in the business of home energy efficiency. The articles, editorials, letters, and advertisements are a kind of window on the evolution of energy conservation technologies, policies, and organizations. Initially, the focus was on audits and simple retrofits, such as weatherstripping and insulation. Instrumentation was sparse sometimes limited to a ruler to measure depth of attic insulation and a blower door was exotic. CFLs were heavy, awkward bulbs which might, or might not, fit in a fixture. Saving air conditioning energy was not a priority. Solar energy was only for the most adventurous. Thirty years on, the technologies and business have moved beyond just insulating attics to the larger challenge of delivering home performance and achieving zero net energy. This shift reflects the success in reducing space heating energy and the need to create a profitable industry by providing more services. The leading edge of the residential energy services market is becoming much more sophisticated, offering both efficiency and solar systems. The challenge is to continue providing relevant and reliable information in a transformed industry and a revolutionized media landscape.

  18. A 30 Year Old Man with Fever and Indolent Soft Tissue Masses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wissam Zaeeter

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: Multifocal Skeletal Tuberculosis (MSTB is a rare presentation of skeletal tuberculosis. The indolent nature of this condition often leads to delayed or missed diagnosis, sometimes with devastating consequences for the patient. In order to provide meaningful clinical information and to highlight pitfalls in diagnosis of MFST, we present a case of MSTB. A review of this condition is included for broader coverage. Approach: A 30 year old immune-competent male patient with a 1 year history of indolent soft tissue masses on the chest wall overlying the sternum and the ribs. CAT scan of the chest showed multiple lytic bony lesions involving the ribs, sternum and vertebrae that mimicked metastatic cancer. Fine needle aspiration of the lesion revealed AFB and granulomas. Culture of the aspirated material grew mycobacterium tuberculosis and a diagnosis of MSTB was made. Results: A diagnosis of MSTB was made and anti-tuberculous therapy was initiated. Conclusion: This case indicated that multi-focal skeletal tuberculosis may develop in immune-competent patients without overt pulmonary involvement. From our experience along with previously reported data, MSTB should be suspected in patients from endemic areas who present with multiple skeletal bony lesions. Appropriate management and therapy are essentials for cure and to prevent complications.

  19. The SLC28 (CNT) and SLC29 (ENT) nucleoside transporter families: a 30-year collaborative odyssey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, James D

    2016-06-15

    Specialized nucleoside transporter (NT) proteins are required for passage of nucleosides and hydrophilic nucleoside analogues across biological membranes. Physiologic nucleosides serve as central salvage metabolites in nucleotide biosynthesis, and nucleoside analogues are used as chemotherapeutic agents in the treatment of cancer and antiviral diseases. The nucleoside adenosine modulates numerous cellular events via purino-receptor cell signalling pathways. Human NTs are divided into two structurally unrelated protein families: the SLC28 concentrative nucleoside transporter (CNT) family and the SLC29 equilibrative nucleoside transporter (ENT) family. Human CNTs are inwardly directed Na(+)-dependent nucleoside transporters found predominantly in intestinal and renal epithelial and other specialized cell types. Human ENTs mediate bidirectional fluxes of purine and pyrimidine nucleosides down their concentration gradients and are ubiquitously found in most, possibly all, cell types. Both protein families are evolutionarily old: CNTs are present in both eukaryotes and prokaryotes; ENTs are widely distributed in mammalian, lower vertebrate and other eukaryote species. This mini-review describes a 30-year collaboration with Professor Stephen Baldwin to identify and understand the structures and functions of these physiologically and clinically important transport proteins.

  20. Radiation induced skin cancer the chest wall 30 years later from breast cancer operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miyamoto, Kouji; Togawa, Tamotsu; Hasegawa, Takeshi; Matsunami, Hidetoshi; Ikeda, Tsuneko [Matsunami General Hospital, Kasamatsu, Gifu (Japan); Matsuo, Youichi

    1998-10-01

    This paper describes the skin cancer on the frontal chest wall induced by postoperative irradiation 30 years later from mastectomy. The patients was a 62-year-old woman, who received mastectomy of the right breast cancer (invasive ductal carcinoma, comedo type) at 31 years old, and received the postoperative radiotherapy of total 11,628 rad over 38 times. On the first medical examination in author`s hospital, the patient had an ulcer of about 10 cm diameter and was diagnosed the radiation induced skin cancer (well differentiated squamous cell carcinoma) in the biopsy. Because of the general condition of the patient was extremely bad and the skin cancer had highly developed, the excision was thought to be impossible. The radiotherapy (16 Gy) and combined local chemotherapy by OK 432 and Bleomycin were performed. In spite of the short term treatment, these therapies were effective on the reduction of the tumor size and the hemostasis, and brought the patient the improvement of QOL. The general condition of the patient improved to be stable and she recovered enough to go out from the hospital for 6 months. After 10 months, she showed anorexia and dyspnea and died after about 1 year from the admission. The present case is extremely rare, and it is required the radical therapy like the excision of chest wall at early stage. (K.H.)

  1. Primary health care development: where is Nepal after 30 years of Alma Ata Declaration?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karkee, R; Jha, N

    2010-01-01

    The year 2008 has witnessed the global conversation to return to tenets of Alma-Ata and to review its 30 years of journey. We reviewed Nepal's journey on Primary Health Care development: policy formulation, structure development, progress and constraints. Though Nepal has institutionalised the PHC approach in health policy, strategy and health care delivery system, this has not been effectively translated into actions, and the results are mixed. Nepal has gained impressive achievements in selective primary health care markers: 45.43% maternal mortality and 62.34% child mortality reduction during 1990-2005. But gain in comprehensive health care markers is not impressive: 18.7% Skilled Birth Attendant (4% in poorest quintile and 45% in richest quintile), 39% having access to improved sanitation and 55.7% of females are literate as compared to males. Socio-political environment until recently was not favourable for comprehensive primary health care, allowing limited health sector decentralisation and community empowerment. Health activities were focussed more on selective health care strategy in the form of disease control, immunisation, vitamin A supplementation, oral rehydration solution use and contraceptive use. Nepal's rural hilly geography posed great challenge on logistic supply, communication and retention of health workers rendering public health centres of low quality with negative perceptions of consumers. Nepal is on the pathway to build equitable comprehensive primary health care.

  2. A glimpse into 30 years of struggle against prostitution by the women's liberation movement in Norway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strøm, Agnete

    2009-11-01

    The Women's Front of Norway has worked against prostitution for 30 years. In 2008 a law criminalizing the purchase of a sexual act was passed in Norway. This article describes the struggle and the main actors in lobbying for the law. In the 1980s, we raised awareness of prostitution and trafficking in women in a study of the pornography industry, and targeted sex tourist agencies organizing trips to the Philippines and Thailand. In the 1990s, our members in trade unions got their unions to take a stand against prostitution and against legalizing prostitution as "work". In 2006, the Norwegian Confederation of Trade Unions Congress supported a law criminalizing the buyer of a sexual act; this had a strong impact on the centre-left coalition Government. We invited leaders of the Coalition Against Trafficking in Women to Norway to meet parliamentarians and trade unionists, and kept up the pressure. From the start, the focus was on ensuring that the situation for women in prostitution was ameliorated. Our demands have been for better social services and job training. Street prostitution, especially in Oslo, has been curbed, and a growth in the indoor market has not been reported. Our next task is participating in the awareness campaign "Buying Sex is not a Sport" in connection with the Soccer World Cup, South Africa, 2010.

  3. RADIATION CONDITIONS IN KALUGA REGION 30 YEARS AFTER CHERNOBYL NPP ACCIDENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. G. Ashitko

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article describes radiation conditions in the Kaluga region 30 years after the Chernobyl NPP accident. The Chernobyl NPP accident caused radioactive contamination of nine Kaluga region territories: Duminichsky, Zhizdrinsky, Kuibyshevsky, Kirovsky, Kozelsky, Ludinovsky, Meshchovsky, Ulyanovsky and Hvastovichsky districts. Radioactive fallout was the strongest in three southern districts: Zhizdrinsky, Ulyanovsky and Hvastovichsky, over there cesium-137 contamination density is from 1 to 15Ci/km. According to the Russian Federation Government Order in 2015 there are 300 settlements (S in the radioactive contamination zone, including 14 settlements with caesium-137 soil contamination density from 5 to 15 Ci/ km2 and 286 settlements with the contamination density ranging from 1 to 5 Ci/km2. In the first years after the Chernobyl NPP accident in Kaluga region territories, contaminated with caesium-137, there were introduced restrictive land usage, were carried out agrochemical activities (ploughing, mineral fertilizer dressing, there was toughened laboratory radiation control over the main doze-forming foodstuff. All these measures facilitated considerable decrease of caesium-137 content in local agricultural produce. Proceeding from the achieved result, in 2002 there took place the transition to more tough requirements SanPiN 2.3.2.1078-01. Analysis of investigated samples from Zhizdrinsky, Ulyanovsky and Hvastovichsky districts demonstrated that since 2005 meat samples didn’t exceed the standard values, same for milk samples since 2007. Till the present time, the use of wild-growing mushrooms, berries and wild animals meat involves radiation issues. It was demonstrated that average specific activity of caesium-137 in milk samples keeps decreasing year after year. Long after the Chernobyl NPP accident, the main products forming internal irradiation doses in population are the wild-growing mushrooms and berries. Population average annual

  4. How are qualitative methods used in diabetes research? A 30-year systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hennink, Monique M; Kaiser, Bonnie N; Sekar, Swathi; Griswold, Emily P; Ali, Mohammed K

    2017-02-01

    We aimed to describe how qualitative methods are used in global research on diabetes and identify opportunities whereby qualitative methods could further benefit our understanding of the human experience of diabetes and interventions to address it. We conducted a systematic review of National Library of Medicine, EMBASE, and Web of Science electronic databases to identify original research articles that used qualitative methods to study diabetes between 1980 and 2011. We identified 554 eligible articles and categorised these by geographic region, year of publication, study population, study design, research question, qualitative data collection methods, and journal type. Results show low use of qualitative methods in diabetes research over the past 30 years. The majority of articles (75%) reported using substantive qualitative research, while mixed-methods research has remained underutilised. Eighty-five per cent of articles reported studies conducted in North America or Europe, with few studies in developing countries. Most articles reported recruiting clinic-based populations (58%). Over half (54%) of research questions focused on patient experience and 24% on diabetes management. Qualitative methods can provide important insights about socio-cultural aspects of disease to improve disease management. However, they remain underutilised for understanding the diabetes experience, especially in Africa and Asia and amongst non-clinic populations.

  5. Theoretical framework to estimate spatially averaged rainfalls conditional on river discharges and point rainfall measurements from a single location: an application to Western Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Langousis

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available We focus on the special case of catchments covered by a single raingauge, and develop a theoretical framework to obtain estimates of spatial rainfall averages conditional on rainfall measurements from a single location, and the flow conditions at the catchment outlet. In doing so we use: (a statistical tools to identify and correct inconsistencies between daily rainfall occurrence and amount and the flow conditions at the outlet of the basin, (b concepts from multifractal theory to relate the fraction of wet intervals in point rainfall measurements and that in spatial rainfall averages, while accounting for the shape and size of the catchment, the size, lifetime and advection velocity of rainfall generating features and the location of the raingauge inside the basin, and (c semi-theoretical arguments to assure consistency between rainfall and runoff volumes at an inter-annual level, implicitly accounting for spatial heterogeneities of rainfall caused by orographic influences. In an application study, using point rainfall records from Glafkos river basin in Western Greece, we find the suggested approach to demonstrate significant skill in resolving rainfall-runoff incompatibilities at a daily level, while reproducing the statistics of spatial rainfall averages at both monthly and annual time scales, independently of the location of the raingauge and the magnitude of the observed deviations between point rainfall measurements and spatial rainfall averages. The developed scheme should serve as an important tool for the effective calibration of rainfall-runoff models in basins covered by a single raingauge and, also, improve hydrologic impact assessment at a river basin level under changing climatic conditions.

  6. Spatial Variability of Rainfall

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, N.E.; Pedersen, Lisbeth

    2005-01-01

    As a part of a Local Area Weather Radar (LAWR) calibration exercise 15 km south of Århus, Denmark, the variability in accumulated rainfall within a single radar pixel (500 by 500 m) was measured using nine high-resolution rain gauges. The measured values indicate up to a 100% variation between...

  7. Contrasting population trends of piscivorous seabirds in the Pribilof Islands: A 30-year perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrd, G.V.; Schmutz, J.A.; Renner, H.M.

    2008-01-01

    The Pribilof Islands provide nesting habitat for one of the largest concentrations of piscivorous seabirds in the North Pacific region. Pribilof breeding populations of black-legged and red-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla and Rissa brevirostris), and common and thick-billed murres (Uria aalge and Uria lomvia) are supported by a highly productive marine food web. Productivity and temperature in this area are influenced by winter sea ice that frequently reaches its maximum extent near the Pribilofs. Although St. George and St. Paul islands, the two largest of the Pribilof group, are situated only 60 km apart, St. George is within 25 km of the shelf break, but St. Paul is approximately 90 km away. In contrast, the local contribution of sea ice-edge productivity in the spring is frequently closer to St. Paul than to St. George. Central place foraging piscivorous seabirds nesting at St. Paul and St. George are likely differentially affected by the relative contributions of the shelf break and ice-edge environments based on juxtaposition. Within the past decade or so, sea ice in the Bering Sea has failed to reach the vicinity of the Pribilofs in some years, and predictions of warming in the future suggest the possibility that direct effects of the ice on the immediate Pribilof environment will be reduced. To evaluate the response of kittiwakes and murres on the two islands to conditions in their foraging environments, we examined population trends over the past 30 years based on data from the seabird monitoring program conducted by the Alaska Maritime National Wildlife Refuge and others. Spatial differences in trends have been more consistent than differences among species, with populations at St. Paul having more enduring declines than those at St. George. At St. George, black-legged kittiwakes and common murres have remained stable. Red-legged kittiwakes and thick-billed murres both declined, but began to rebound in the late 1980s, such that in 2005 population

  8. Eighteen- to 30-year-olds more likely to link to hepatitis C virus care: an opportunity to decrease transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, K L; Huang, W; Horsburgh, C R; Linas, B P; Assoumou, S A

    2016-04-01

    Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection incidence among 18- to 30-year-olds is increasing and guidelines recommend treatment of active injection drug users to limit transmission. We aimed to : measure linkage to HCV care among 18- to 30-year-olds and identify factors associated with linkage; compare linkage among 18- to 30-year-olds to that of patients >30 years. We used the electronic medical record at an urban safety net hospital to create a retrospective cohort with reactive HCV antibody between 2005 and 2010. We report seroprevalence and demographics of seropositive patients, and used multivariable logistic regression to identify factors associated with linkage to HCV care. We defined linkage as having evidence of HCV RNA testing after reactive antibody. Thirty two thousand four hundred and eighteen individuals were tested, including 8873 between 18 and 30 years. The seropositivity rate among those ages 18-30 was 10%. In multivariate analysis, among those 18-30, diagnosis location (Outpatient vs Inpatient/ED) (OR 1.78, 95% CI 1.28-2.49) and number of visits after diagnosis (OR 5.30, 95% CI 3.91-7.19) were associated with higher odds of linking to care. When we compared linkage in patients ages 18-30 to that among those older than 30, patients in the 18-30 years age group were more likely to link to HCV care than those in the older cohort even when controlling for gender, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, birthplace, diagnosis location and duration of follow-up. Eighteen- to 30-year-olds are more likely to link to HCV care than their older counterparts. During the interferon-free treatment era, there is an opportunity to prevent further HCV transmission in this population.

  9. Changes in physical fitness and nutritional status of schoolchildren in a period of 30 years (1980-2010

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    Gerson Luis de Moraes Ferrari

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To analyze and compare the changes in physical fitness according to the nutritional status and gender of schoolchildren during a period of 30 years (1980-2010. Methods: Four cross-sectional evaluations were performed every 10 years in a period of 30 years from 1978 to 1980 (baseline, 1988-1990 (10 years, 1998-2000 (20 years and 2008-2010 (30 years. The sample consisted of 1291 schoolchildren (188 in baseline, 307 in 10 years; 375 in 20 years; 421 in 30 years of 10 and 11 years old. The variables assessed were: body weight (kg, height (cm, upper limb strength (ULS; kg, lower limb strength (LLS; cm, agility (seconds and velocity (seconds. Schoolchildren were classified as normal weight and overweight according to World Health Organization reference of body mass index for age and gender. Comparisons among periods applied ANOVA followed by Bonferroni test, with a significance level set at of p<0.01. Variation between baseline and 30 years was assessed by the percentage delta. Seven different percentile values were presented for each variable. Results: In eutrophic boys and girls, mean values of ULS (−16.7%; −3.2%, agility (−1.5%; −1.6% decreased significantly after 30 years (p<0.001. In the overweight boys and girls, only the average ULS (−15.5%; −12.5% decreased significantly over time (p<0.001. After 30 years, the ULS percentile changed in boys. Conclusions: The decline in physical fitness was greater in schoolchildren with normal weight than in those with overweight.

  10. Spontaneous resolution rates of vesicoureteral reflux in Brazilian children: a 30-year experience

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    Miguel Zerati Filho

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: We evaluated clinical characteristics of primary vesicoureteral reflux (VUR in infants in a 30-year period in Brazil with special reference to the relation of renal parenchymal damage to urinary tract infection and gender. MATERIALS AND METHODS: From 1975 through 2005, 417 girls (81.6% and 94 boys (18.4% with all grades of reflux were retrospectively reviewed. Patients were categorized by the worst grade of reflux, maintained on antibiotic prophylaxis and underwent yearly voiding cystourethrography until the reflux was resolved. VUR was considered resolved when a follow-up cystogram demonstrated no reflux. Surgical correction was recommended for those who fail medical therapy, severe renal scarring or persistent VUR. RESULTS: Grades I to V VUR resolved in 87.5%, 77.6%, 52.8%, 12.2% and 4.3%, respectively. Renal scars were present at presentation in 98 patients (19.2%. Neither gender nor bilaterality versus unilaterality was a helpful predictor of resolution. The significant difference was found among the curves using the log rank (p < 0.001 or Wilcoxon (p < 0.001 test. CONCLUSION: Despite the current use of screening prenatal ultrasound, many infants are still diagnosed as having vesicoureteral reflux only after the occurrence of urinary tract infection in our country. Scarring may be associated to any reflux grade and it may be initially diagnosed at any age but half of the scars are noted with higher grades of reflux (IV and V. The incidence of reflux related morbidity in children has significantly diminished over the last three decades.

  11. Behaviour of the low degree terms of the Earth gravity field over the last 30 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biancale, R.; Lemoine, J.-M.; Reinquin, F.; Deleflie, F.; Ramillien, G.; Gégout, P.

    2012-04-01

    The GRACE mission has revealed since 2002 the recent evolution of the Earth's gravity field with a resolution down to 400 km, equivalent to degree and order 50 in spherical harmonics. Precise orbit computation for altimetric satellites can obviously gain by applying these variations, which are classically given, as in recent EIGEN models, as drifts and periodic terms (yearly and semi-yearly). However extrapolating these variations to pre-GRACE periods, mainly the drifts, can be problematic for orbit computation performances on former altimetric satellites. One option is to analyse older satellite data, in particular SLR data on geodetic satellites, in order to assess the very low degree variations of the gravity field and compare it to the GRACE determination. This can be done over the last 30 years, using for instance the Lageos and Lageos-2, Starlette and Stella satellites. The spherical harmonic degrees that can be accessed in this way are degrees 2 to 4. Additional information on degree 2 can be derived from the analysis of the Earth orientation parameters, pole coordinates and length of day (LOD), which have been observed over a long period with great accuracy by astrometric, satellite geodetic and extra-galactic means. Once corrected for atmospheric and oceanic load and velocity variations, the pole coordinates will principally bring information on the C(2,1) and S(2,1) coefficients, while the LOD will principally be connected with the C(2,0). Combining these two approaches allows a better observation of the temporal evolution of the gravity field over a long time span and a more realistic modelling of it for the precise orbit computation of past altimeter missions.

  12. Spontaneus bilateral pedicle fracture 30 years after Harrington Instrumentation for idiopathic scoliosis: a case report

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    Obid Peter

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction Spontaneous fractures of the spine are a common entity. They usually occur in older people with osteoporosis. This case is presented on account of its rarity. To the best of the authors' knowledge only one case of an osteoporotic pedicle fracture after Harrington Instrumentation has been described before. Case presentation We report the case of a 46-year-old Caucasian woman who underwent surgery due to idiopathic scoliosis with a Harrington Instrumentation (T4 to L3 30 years ago. During the operation she was infected with hepatitis C while receiving erythrocyte concentrates and has suffered from liver cirrhosis since then. She presented with a sudden pain in her lower back and paraesthesia in both her legs but no other neurological symptoms. A computed tomography scan showed a bilateral pedicle fracture of L3 and an additional compression fracture of L4. In the first session we performed a dorsal stabilization with massive intraoperative bleeding and a postoperative failure of liver synthesis. In a second session an additional ventral augmentation was done. After the second operation she developed a hepatorenal syndrome. Both operations left the patient in a very critical state which led to a prolonged stay in the intensive care and rehabilitation unit. At her 12-month follow-up visit, she was free of complaints. Conclusion The un-physiological load of the spine after Harrington Instrumentation can lead to osteoporosis due to inactivity even in younger patients. Although these implants are not used anymore one should keep this possibility in mind when dealing with patients who have received Harrington rods in surgical procedures.

  13. A continuing 30-year decline in water quality of Jiaojiang Estuary, China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chun-ye Wang; Bin Zhou; Bei Huang

    2015-01-01

    A quantitative description of a long-term series of aquatic environmental factors and their spatial distributions was generated using measured data from the Jiaojiang Estuary from 1982 to 2011. The aquatic environmental factors included suspended matter, salinity, and nutrients. Based on these factors, the aquatic ecosystem health in the Jiaojiang Estuary over the last 30 years was analyzed. The results indicated that the suspended matter concentration in the estuary was mainly affected by the amounts of suspended sediment and solid waste, with the value fluctuating over a long period, and the range of high concentration expanded continually;the salinity was mainly affected by precipitation and surface water resources, showing an overall decreasing trend, and the region with low salinity moved seaward and toward the reclamation areas;and the nutritional status, mainly affected by discharge of industrial wastewater and domestic sewage, was satisfactory in the 1980s and 1990s, but the status became severe in recent years. Reclamation had a great influence on these three factors: high reclamation strength led to a significant increase in the suspended matter concentration and a deterioration of the nutritional status, and the reclamation rate was negatively related with the salinity in the estuary. There was a significant positive correlation between the health status of the aquatic ecosystem and salinity, with a correlation coefficient of 0.93. The correlation coefficient between the health status and nutritional status was ?0.71, while the correlation between the suspended matter concentration and health status was not as significant as that of the other two factors. The dynamics of the aquatic environment could be divided into four stages: sustainable health from the 1980s to the 1990s, continued deterioration from 2000 to 2003, improvement from 2004 to 2005, and secondary deterioration from 2006 to 2011. The Jiaojiang Estuary is faced with imminent environmental

  14. 30-year International Pediatric Craniofacial Surgery Partnership: Evolution from the “Third World” Forward

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swanson, Jordan W.; Skirpan, Jan; Stanek, Beata; Kowalczyk, Maciej

    2016-01-01

    Background: Craniofacial diseases constitute an important component of the surgical disease burden in low- and middle-income countries. The consideration to introduce craniofacial surgery into such settings poses different questions, risks, and challenges compared with cleft or other forms of plastic surgery. We report the evolution, innovations, and challenges of a 30-year international craniofacial surgery partnership. Methods: We retrospectively report a partnership between surgeons at the Uniwersytecki Szpital Dzieciecy in Krakow, Poland, and a North American craniofacial surgeon. We studied patient conditions, treatment patterns, and associated complications, as well as program advancements and limitations as perceived by surgeons, patient families, and hospital administrators. Results: Since partnership inception in 1986, the complexity of cases performed increased gradually, with the first intracranial case performed in 1995. In the most recent 10-year period (2006–2015), 85 patients have been evaluated, with most common diagnoses of Apert syndrome, Crouzon syndrome, and single-suture craniosynostosis. In the same period, 55 major surgical procedures have been undertaken, with LeFort III midface distraction, posterior vault distraction, and frontoorbital advancement performed most frequently. Key innovations have been the employment of craniofacial distraction osteogenesis, the use of Internet communication and digital photography, and increased understanding of how craniofacial morphology may improve in the absence of surgical intervention. Ongoing challenges include prohibitive training pathways for pediatric plastic surgeons, difficulty in coordinating care with surgeons in other institutions, and limited medical and material resources. Conclusion: Safe craniofacial surgery can be introduced and sustained in a resource-limited setting through an international partnership. PMID:27200233

  15. A continuing 30-year decline in water quality of Jiaojiang Estuary, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chun-ye WANG

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A quantitative description of a long-term series of aquatic environmental factors and their spatial distributions was generated using measured data from the Jiaojiang Estuary from 1982 to 2011. The aquatic environmental factors included suspended matter, salinity, and nutrients. Based on these factors, the aquatic ecosystem health in the Jiaojiang Estuary over the last 30 years was analyzed. The results indicated that the suspended matter concentration in the estuary was mainly affected by the amounts of suspended sediment and solid waste, with the value fluctuating over a long period, and the range of high concentration expanded continually; the salinity was mainly affected by precipitation and surface water resources, showing an overall decreasing trend, and the region with low salinity moved seaward and toward the reclamation areas; and the nutritional status, mainly affected by discharge of industrial wastewater and domestic sewage, was satisfactory in the 1980s and 1990s, but the status became severe in recent years. Reclamation had a great influence on these three factors: high reclamation strength led to a significant increase in the suspended matter concentration and a deterioration of the nutritional status, and the reclamation rate was negatively related with the salinity in the estuary. There was a significant positive correlation between the health status of the aquatic ecosystem and salinity, with a correlation coefficient of 0.93. The correlation coefficient between the health status and nutritional status was −0.71, while the correlation between the suspended matter concentration and health status was not as significant as that of the other two factors. The dynamics of the aquatic environment could be divided into four stages: sustainable health from the 1980s to the 1990s, continued deterioration from 2000 to 2003, improvement from 2004 to 2005, and secondary deterioration from 2006 to 2011. The Jiaojiang Estuary is faced with

  16. Congenital lobar emphysema: 30-year case series in two university hospitals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniele Cristina Cataneo

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To review the cases of patients with congenital lobar emphysema (CLE submitted to surgical treatment at two university hospitals over a 30-year period. METHODS: We reviewed the medical records of children with CLE undergoing surgical treatment between 1979 and 2009 at the Botucatu School of Medicine Hospital das Clínicas or the Mogi das Cruzes University Hospital. We analyzed data regarding symptoms, physical examination, radiographic findings, diagnosis, surgical treatment, and postoperative follow-up. RESULTS: During the period studied, 20 children with CLE underwent surgery. The mean age at the time of surgery was 6.9 months (range, 9 days to 4 years. All of the cases presented with symptoms at birth or during the first months of life. In all cases, chest X-rays were useful in defining the diagnosis. In cases of moderate respiratory distress, chest CT facilitated the diagnosis. One patient with severe respiratory distress was misdiagnosed with hypertensive pneumothorax and underwent chest tube drainage. Only patients with moderate respiratory distress were submitted to bronchoscopy, which revealed no tracheobronchial abnormalities. The surgical approach was lateral muscle-sparing thoracotomy. The left upper and middle lobes were the most often affected, followed by the right upper lobe. Lobectomy was performed in 18 cases, whereas bilobectomy was performed in 2 (together with bronchogenic cyst resection in 1 of those. No postoperative complications were observed. Postoperative follow-up time was at least 24 months (mean, 60 months, and no late complications were observed. CONCLUSIONS: Although CLE is an uncommon, still neglected disease of uncertain etiology, the radiological diagnosis is easily made and surgical treatment is effective.

  17. Alma-Ata 30 years on: revolutionary, relevant, and time to revitalise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawn, Joy E; Rohde, Jon; Rifkin, Susan; Were, Miriam; Paul, Vinod K; Chopra, Mickey

    2008-09-13

    In this paper, we revisit the revolutionary principles-equity, social justice, and health for all; community participation; health promotion; appropriate use of resources; and intersectoral action-raised by the 1978 Alma-Ata Declaration, a historic event for health and primary health care. Old health challenges remain and new priorities have emerged (eg, HIV/AIDS, chronic diseases, and mental health), ensuring that the tenets of Alma-Ata remain relevant. We examine 30 years of changes in global policy to identify the lessons learned that are of relevance today, particularly for accelerated scale-up of primary health-care services necessary to achieve the Millennium Development Goals, the modern iteration of the "health for all" goals. Health has moved from under-investment, to single disease focus, and now to increased funding and multiple new initiatives. For primary health care, the debate of the past two decades focused on selective (or vertical) versus comprehensive (horizontal) delivery, but is now shifting towards combining the strengths of both approaches in health systems. Debates of community versus facility-based health care are starting to shift towards building integrated health systems. Achievement of high and equitable coverage of integrated primary health-care services requires consistent political and financial commitment, incremental implementation based on local epidemiology, use of data to direct priorities and assess progress, especially at district level, and effective linkages with communities and non-health sectors. Community participation and intersectoral engagement seem to be the weakest strands in primary health care. Burgeoning task lists for primary health-care workers require long-term human resource planning and better training and supportive supervision. Essential drugs policies have made an important contribution to primary health care, but other appropriate technology lags behind. Revitalisng Alma-Ata and learning from three

  18. A 30-year history of earthquake crisis communication in California and lessons for the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, L.

    2015-12-01

    The first statement from the US Geological Survey to the California Office of Emergency Services quantifying the probability of a possible future earthquake was made in October 1985 about the probability (approximately 5%) that a M4.7 earthquake located directly beneath the Coronado Bay Bridge in San Diego would be a foreshock to a larger earthquake. In the next 30 years, publication of aftershock advisories have become routine and formal statements about the probability of a larger event have been developed in collaboration with the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (CEPEC) and sent to CalOES more than a dozen times. Most of these were subsequently released to the public. These communications have spanned a variety of approaches, with and without quantification of the probabilities, and using different ways to express the spatial extent and the magnitude distribution of possible future events. The USGS is re-examining its approach to aftershock probability statements and to operational earthquake forecasting with the goal of creating pre-vetted automated statements that can be released quickly after significant earthquakes. All of the previous formal advisories were written during the earthquake crisis. The time to create and release a statement became shorter with experience from the first public advisory (to the 1988 Lake Elsman earthquake) that was released 18 hours after the triggering event, but was never completed in less than 2 hours. As was done for the Parkfield experiment, the process will be reviewed by CEPEC and NEPEC (National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council) so the statements can be sent to the public automatically. This talk will review the advisories, the variations in wording and the public response and compare this with social science research about successful crisis communication, to create recommendations for future advisories

  19. CT imaging, then and now: a 30-year review of the economics of computed tomography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stockburger, Wayne T

    2004-01-01

    The first computed tomography (CT) scanner in the US was installed in June 1973 at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, MN. By the end of 1974, 44 similar systems had been installed at medical facilities around the country. Less than 4 years after the introduction of CT imaging in the US, at least 400 CT systems had been installed. The practice of pneumoencephalography was eliminated. The use of nuclear medicine brain scans significantly diminished. At the time, CT imaging was limited to head studies, but with the introduction of contrast agents and full body CT systems the changes in the practice of medicine became even more significant. CT imaging was hailed by the US medical community as the greatest advance in radiology since the discovery of x-rays. But the rapid spread of CT systems, their frequency of use, and the associated increase in healthcare costs combined to draw the attention of decision-makers within the federal and state governments, specifically to establish policies regarding the acquisition and use of diagnostic technologies. Initially, CT imaging was limited to neurological applications, but in the 30 years since its inception, capabilities and applications have been expanded as a result of the advancements in technology and software development. While neurological disorders are still a common reason for CT imaging, many other medical disciplines (oncology, emergency medicine, orthopedics, etc.) have found CT imaging to be the definitive tool for diagnostic information. As such, the clinical demand for CT imaging has steadily increased. Economically, the development of CT imaging has been one of success, even in the face of governmental action to restrict its acquisition and utilization by healthcare facilities. CTimaging has increased the cost of healthcare, but in turn has added unquantifiable value to the practice of medicine in the US.

  20. [Tubulo-villous rectal tumours. Results of surgical resection in relation to histotype (30 years' experience)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carditello, Antonio; Milone, Antonino; Paparo, Domenica; Anastasi, Giuliana; Mollo, Francesco; Stilo, Francesco

    2004-01-01

    Adenomas of the rectum are frequently found during endoscopic examination. We report on our 30 years of experience with the treatment of tubulo-villous adenomas based on histotype. Between 1971 and 2001, 104 villous tumours of the rectum were treated surgically. The patients' average age was 65 years. These were sessile tumours in 69% of cases, pedunculated in 17.5% and flowing tumours in 13.5%. The mean tumour size was 3 cm. They were associated with colon cancer in 15% of cases and with polyadenoma in 10%. They were located in the rectum within 0 to 6 cm of the anal margin in half the cases. These tumours were treated by local excision in 74 cases and by wide excision in 30 cases. The malignant potential of the tumours was 30%, including 10% invasive malignancy. There were no surgical fatalities, but a 6% medical fatality rate was registered. There was a 20% complication rate related to the surgical technique. Twenty patients were lost to follow-up. Out of 84 villous tumours, monitored over a mean survival period of 6.5 years, there were 24 recurrences: 18 underwent endoscopic excision and in 6 cases a wide resection. The various tumour resection techniques and the operative indications of variable difficulty are presented. It would seem, at present, that total resection of the rectum with a colo-anal anastomosis is the best treatment for large flowing villous tumours occupying almost the entire rectum. Thorough preoperative examination and the mastering of various surgical procedures should allow the most suitable choice of treatment for each individual case.

  1. Climatic effects of 30 years of landscape change over the Greater Phoenix, Arizona, region: 1. Surface energy budget changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgescu, M.; Miguez-Macho, G.; Steyaert, L.T.; Weaver, C.P.

    2009-01-01

    This paper is part 1 of a two-part study that evaluates the climatic effects of recent landscape change for one of the nation's most rapidly expanding metropolitan complexes, the Greater Phoenix, Arizona, region. The region's landscape evolution over an approximate 30-year period since the early 1970s is documented on the basis of analyses of Landsat images and land use/land cover (LULC) data sets derived from aerial photography (1973) and Landsat (1992 and 2001). High-resolution, Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), simulations (2-km grid spacing) are used in conjunction with consistently defined land cover data sets and associated biophysical parameters for the circa 1973, circa 1992, and circa 2001 time periods to quantify the impacts of intensive land use changes on the July surface temperatures and the surface radiation and energy budgets for the Greater Phoenix region. The main findings are as follows: since the early 1970s the region's landscape has been altered by a significant increase in urban/suburban land area, primarily at the expense of decreasing plots of irrigated agriculture and secondarily by the conversion of seminatural shrubland. Mean regional temperatures for the circa 2001 landscape were 0.12??C warmer than the circa 1973 landscape, with maximum temperature differences, located over regions of greatest urbanization, in excess of 1??C. The significant reduction in irrigated agriculture, for the circa 2001 relative to the circa 1973 landscape, resulted in dew point temperature decreases in excess of 1??C. The effect of distinct land use conversion themes (e.g., conversion from irrigated agriculture to urban land) was also examined to evaluate how the most important conversion themes have each contributed to the region's changing climate. The two urbanization themes studied (from an initial landscape of irrigated agriculture and seminatural shrubland) have the greatest positive effect on near-surface temperature, increasing maximum daily

  2. Length of Growing Period over Africa: Variability and Trends from 30 Years of NDVI Time Series

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    Mohammed Y. Said

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The spatial distribution of crops and farming systems in Africa is determined by the duration of the period during which crop and livestock water requirements are met. The length of growing period (LGP is normally assessed from weather station data—scarce in large parts of Africa—or coarse-resolution rainfall estimates derived from weather satellites. In this study, we analyzed LGP and its variability based on the 1981–2011 GIMMS NDVI3g dataset. We applied a variable threshold method in combination with a searching algorithm to determine start- and end-of-season. We obtained reliable LGP estimates for arid, semi-arid and sub-humid climates that are consistent in space and time. This approach effectively mapped bimodality for clearly separated wet seasons in the Horn of Africa. Due to cloud contamination, the identified bimodality along the Guinea coast was judged to be less certain. High LGP variability is dominant in arid and semi-arid areas, and is indicative of crop failure risk. Significant negative trends in LGP were found for the northern part of the Sahel, for parts of Tanzania and northern Mozambique, and for the short rains of eastern Kenya. Positive trends occurred across western Africa, in southern Africa, and in eastern Kenya for the long rains. Our LGP analysis provides useful information for the mapping of farming systems, and to study the effects of climate variability and other drivers of change on vegetation and crop suitability.

  3. Flooding dynamics in a large low-gradient alluvial fan, the Okavango Delta, Botswana, from analysis and interpretation of a 30-year hydrometric record

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    P. Wolski

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The Okavango Delta is a flood-pulsed wetland, which supports a large tourism industry and the subsistence of the local population through the provision of ecosystem services. In order to obtain insight into the influence of various environmental factors on flood propagation and distribution in this system, an analysis was undertaken of a 30-year record of hydrometric data (discharges and water levels from one of the Delta distributaries. The analysis revealed that water levels and discharges at any given channel site in this distributary are influenced by a complex interplay of flood wave and local rainfall inputs, modified by channel-floodplain interactions, in-channel sedimentation and technical interventions, both at the given site and upstream. Additionally, cyclical variation of channel vegetation due to intermittent nutrient loading, possibly sustained by nutrient recycling, may play a role. It is shown that short and long-term flood dynamics are mainly due to variation in floodplain flows. As a consequence, discharge data collected within the main channels of distributaries do not adequately represent flooding dynamics in the system. The paper contributes to the understanding of seasonal and long-term flood pulsing and their variation in low gradient systems of channels and floodplains.

  4. Bivariate Rainfall and Runoff Analysis Using Entropy and Copula Theories

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    Lan Zhang

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Multivariate hydrologic frequency analysis has been widely studied using: (1 commonly known joint distributions or copula functions with the assumption of univariate variables being independently identically distributed (I.I.D. random variables; or (2 directly applying the entropy theory-based framework. However, for the I.I.D. univariate random variable assumption, the univariate variable may be considered as independently distributed, but it may not be identically distributed; and secondly, the commonly applied Pearson’s coefficient of correlation (g is not able to capture the nonlinear dependence structure that usually exists. Thus, this study attempts to combine the copula theory with the entropy theory for bivariate rainfall and runoff analysis. The entropy theory is applied to derive the univariate rainfall and runoff distributions. It permits the incorporation of given or known information, codified in the form of constraints and results in a universal solution of univariate probability distributions. The copula theory is applied to determine the joint rainfall-runoff distribution. Application of the copula theory results in: (i the detection of the nonlinear dependence between the correlated random variables-rainfall and runoff, and (ii capturing the tail dependence for risk analysis through joint return period and conditional return period of rainfall and runoff. The methodology is validated using annual daily maximum rainfall and the corresponding daily runoff (discharge data collected from watersheds near Riesel, Texas (small agricultural experimental watersheds and Cuyahoga River watershed, Ohio.

  5. Combination of radar and daily precipitation data to estimate meaningful sub-daily point precipitation extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bárdossy, András; Pegram, Geoffrey

    2017-01-01

    The use of radar measurements for the space time estimation of precipitation has for many decades been a central topic in hydro-meteorology. In this paper we are interested specifically in daily and sub-daily extreme values of precipitation at gauged or ungauged locations which are important for design. The purpose of the paper is to develop a methodology to combine daily precipitation observations and radar measurements to estimate sub-daily extremes at point locations. Radar data corrected using precipitation-reflectivity relationships lead to biased estimations of extremes. Different possibilities of correcting systematic errors using the daily observations are investigated. Observed gauged daily amounts are interpolated to unsampled points and subsequently disaggregated using the sub-daily values obtained by the radar. Different corrections based on the spatial variability and the subdaily entropy of scaled rainfall distributions are used to provide unbiased corrections of short duration extremes. Additionally a statistical procedure not based on a matching day by day correction is tested. In this last procedure as we are only interested in rare extremes, low to medium values of rainfall depth were neglected leaving a small number of L days of ranked daily maxima in each set per year, whose sum typically comprises about 50% of each annual rainfall total. The sum of these L day maxima is first iterpolated using a Kriging procedure. Subsequently this sum is disaggregated to daily values using a nearest neighbour procedure. The daily sums are then disaggregated by using the relative values of the biggest L radar based days. Of course, the timings of radar and gauge maxima can be different, so the method presented here uses radar for disaggregating daily gauge totals down to 15 min intervals in order to extract the maxima of sub-hourly through to daily rainfall. The methodologies were tested in South Africa, where an S-band radar operated relatively continuously at

  6. More rain, less soil: long-term changes in rainfall intensity with climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Burt, Tim; Boardman, John; Foster, Ian D L; Howden, Nicholas

    2016-01-01

    This commentary discusses the role of long-term climate change in driving increases in soil erosion. Assuming that land use and management remain effectively constant, we discuss changes in the ability of rainfall to cause erosion (erosivity), using long daily rainfall data sets from south east England. An upward trend in mean rainfall per rain day is detected at the century-plus time scale. Implications for soil erosion and sediment delivery are discussed and evidence from other regions revi...

  7. Historical data reveal 30-year persistence of benthic fauna associations in heavily modified waterbody

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    Ruth Callaway

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Baseline surveys form the cornerstone of coastal impact studies where altered conditions, for example through new infrastructure development, are assessed against a temporal reference state. They are snapshots taken before construction. Due to scarcity of relevant data prior to baseline surveys long-term trends can often not be taken into account. Particularly in heavily modified waterbodies this would however be desirable to control for changes in anthropogenic use over time as well as natural ecological variation. Here, the benthic environment of an industrialized embayment was investigated (Swansea Bay, Wales, UK where it is proposed to build a tidal lagoon that would generate marine renewable energy from the tidal range. Since robust long-term baseline data was not available, the value of unpublished historical benthos information from 1984 by a regional water company was assessed with the aim to improve certainty about the persistence of current benthic community patterns. A survey of 101 positions in 2014 identified spatially discrete benthic communities with areas of high and low diversity. Habitat characteristics including sediment properties and the proximity to a sewage outfall explained 17-35% of the variation in the community structure. Comparing the historical information from 1984 with 2014 revealed striking similarity in the benthic communities between those years, not just in their spatial distribution but also to a large extent in the species composition. The 30-year-old information confirmed spatial boundaries of discrete species associations and pinpointed a similar diversity hotspot. A group of five common species was found to be particularly persistent over time (Nucula nitidosa, Spisula elliptica, Spiophanes bombyx, Nephtys hombergii, Diastylis rathkei. According to the Infauna Quality Index (IQI linked to the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD the average ecological status for 2014 was ‘moderate’, but eleven samples

  8. Pichia anomala J121: a 30-year overnight near success biopreservation story.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schnürer, Johan; Jonsson, Anders

    2011-01-01

    Thirty years ago, the ascomycetous yeast Pichia anomala strain J121 was isolated from moist wheat grain stored under conditions of restricted air access. Early observations indicated that an inverse relationship existed between mould and P. anomala colony forming units in grain. This yeast strain was later found to have strong antifungal properties in laboratory, pilot and farm studies with high-moisture wheat under malfunctioning airtight storage. P. anomala had the highest inhibitory activity of 60 yeast species evaluated against the mould Penicillium roqueforti. It also demonstrated strong inhibitory effects against certain Gram-negative bacteria. P. anomala J121 possesses a number of physiological characteristics, i.e. capacity to grow under low pH, low water activity and low oxygen tension and ability to use a wide range of carbon and nitrogen sources, enabling it to act as an efficient biopreservative agent. The biocontrol effect in grain was enhanced by addition of glucose, mainly through formation of the volatile antimicrobial ethyl acetate. Animal feeding trials with P. anomala J121 inoculated grains, fed to chickens and beef cattle, demonstrated that mould control observed in vitro in small scale laboratory experiments could be extended to large scale farm trials. In addition, no adverse effects on animal weight gain, feed conversion, health or behaviour were observed. We have now studied P. anomala J121 biology, ecology and grain preservation ability for 30 years. Over this period, more than 40 scientific publications and five PhD theses have been written on different aspects of this yeast strain, extending from fundamental research on metabolism, genetics and molecular biology, all the way to practical farm-scale level. In spite of the well documented biopreservative ability of the yeast, it has to date been very difficult to create the right constellation of technical, agricultural and biotechnical industries necessary to reach a commercial launch of a

  9. The National Tumor Association Foundation (ANT: A 30 year old model of home palliative care

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    Bonazzi Valeria

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Models of palliative care delivery develop within a social, cultural, and political context. This paper describes the 30-year history of the National Tumor Association (ANT, a palliative care organization founded in the Italian province of Bologna, focusing on this model of home care for palliative cancer patients and on its evaluation. Methods Data were collected from the 1986-2008 ANT archives and documents from the Emilia-Romagna Region Health Department, Italy. Outcomes of interest were changed in: number of patients served, performance status at admission (Karnofsky Performance Status score [KPS], length of participation in the program (days of care provided, place of death (home vs. hospital/hospice, and satisfaction with care. Statistical methods included linear and quadratic regressions. A linear and a quadratic regressions were generated; the independent variable was the year, while the dependent one was the number of patients from 1986 to 2008. Two linear regressions were generated for patients died at home and in the hospital, respectively. For each regression, the R square, the unstandardized and standardized coefficients and related P-values were estimated. Results The number of patients served by ANT has increased continuously from 131 (1986 to a cumulative total of 69,336 patients (2008, at a steady rate of approximately 121 additional patients per year and with no significant gender difference. The annual number of home visits increased from 6,357 (1985 to 904,782 (2008. More ANT patients died at home than in hospice or hospital; this proportion increased from 60% (1987 to 80% (2007. The rate of growth in the number of patients dying in hospital/hospice was approximately 40 patients/year (p 40 increased. Mean days of care for patients with KPS > 40 exceeded mean days for patients with KPS Conclusions The ANT home care model of palliative care delivery has been well-received, with progressively growing numbers

  10. 30-year lidar observations of the stratospheric aerosol layer state over Tomsk (Western Siberia, Russia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuev, Vladimir V.; Burlakov, Vladimir D.; Nevzorov, Aleksei V.; Pravdin, Vladimir L.; Savelieva, Ekaterina S.; Gerasimov, Vladislav V.

    2017-02-01

    There are only four lidar stations in the world which have almost continuously performed observations of the stratospheric aerosol layer (SAL) state over the last 30 years. The longest time series of the SAL lidar measurements have been accumulated at the Mauna Loa Observatory (Hawaii) since 1973, the NASA Langley Research Center (Hampton, Virginia) since 1974, and Garmisch-Partenkirchen (Germany) since 1976. The fourth lidar station we present started to perform routine observations of the SAL parameters in Tomsk (56.48° N, 85.05° E, Western Siberia, Russia) in 1986. In this paper, we mainly focus on and discuss the stratospheric background period from 2000 to 2005 and the causes of the SAL perturbations over Tomsk in the 2006-2015 period. During the last decade, volcanic aerosol plumes from tropical Mt. Manam, Soufrière Hills, Rabaul, Merapi, Nabro, and Kelut and extratropical (northern) Mt. Okmok, Kasatochi, Redoubt, Sarychev Peak, Eyjafjallajökull, and Grímsvötn were detected in the stratosphere over Tomsk. When it was possible, we used the NOAA HYSPLIT trajectory model to assign aerosol layers observed over Tomsk to the corresponding volcanic eruptions. The trajectory analysis highlighted some surprising results. For example, in the cases of the Okmok, Kasatochi, and Eyjafjallajökull eruptions, the HYSPLIT air mass backward trajectories, started from altitudes of aerosol layers detected over Tomsk with a lidar, passed over these volcanoes on their eruption days at altitudes higher than the maximum plume altitudes given by the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program. An explanation of these facts is suggested. The role of both tropical and northern volcanic eruptions in volcanogenic aerosol loading of the midlatitude stratosphere is also discussed. In addition to volcanoes, we considered other possible causes of the SAL perturbations over Tomsk, i.e., the polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) events and smoke plumes from strong forest fires. At least

  11. Mortality of IgA nephropathy patients: a single center experience over 30 years.

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    Hajeong Lee

    Full Text Available Research on the prognosis of IgA nephropathy (IgAN has focused on renal survival, with little information being available on patient survival. Hence, this investigation aimed to explore long-term patient outcome in IgAN patients. Clinical and pathological characteristics at the time of renal biopsy were reviewed in 1,364 IgAN patients from 1979 to 2008. The outcomes were patient death and end stage renal disease (ESRD progression. Overall, 71 deaths (5.3% and 277 cases of ESRD (20.6% occurred during 13,916 person-years. Ten-, 20-, and 30-year patient survival rates were 96.3%, 91.8%, and 82.7%, respectively. More than 50% patient deaths occurred without ESRD progression. Overall mortality was elevated by 43% from an age/sex-matched general population (GP (standardized mortality ratio [SMR], 1.43; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04-1.92. Men had comparable mortality to GP (SMR, 1.22; 95% CI, 0.82-1.75, but, in women, the mortality rate was double (SMR, 2.17; 95% CI, 1.21-3.57. Patients with renal risk factors such as initial renal dysfunction (estimated glomerular filgration rate <60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2; SMR, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.13-2.46, systolic blood pressure ≥ 140 mmHg (SMR, 1.88; 95% CI, 1.19-2.82 or proteinuria ≥ 1 g/day (SMR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.16-2.29 had an elevated mortality rate. Patients with preserved renal function, normotension, and proteinuria <1 g/day, however, had a similar mortality rate to GP. When risk stratification was performed by counting the number of major risk factors present at diagnosis, low-risk IgAN patients had a mortality rate equal to that of GP, whereas high-risk patients had a mortality rate higher than that of GP. This investigation demonstrated that overall mortality in IgAN patients was higher than that of GP. Women and patients with renal risk factors had a higher mortality than that of GP, Therefore, strategies optimized to alleviate major renal risk factors are warranted to reduce patient mortality.

  12. Eco-region dependent lengthening of vegetation period over the past 30 years in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garonna, I.; De Jong, R.; De Wit, A.; Mücher, C. A.; Schmid, B.; Schaepman, M. E.

    2013-12-01

    Land Surface Phenology (LSP) is the most direct representation of intra-annual dynamics of vegetated land surfaces as observed from satellite observations. As such, LSP plays a key role in understanding the terrestrial carbon budget, as well as the response of terrestrial ecosystems to environmental change. Various studies have highlighted significant increases in vegetation activity over time (i.e. greening) over Europe in recent decades (e.g. Stöckli and Vidale, 2004), associated both with climatic changes and with large-scale human interventions including land-use change (de Jong et al., 2013). In this study, we characterize LSP changes in Europe's eco-regions for the last 30 years. We used the latest version of the 8-km Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index dataset (third generation, or NDVI-3g) to retrieve LSP metrics for Europe for the last three decades (1982-2011). Each year of NDVI data was processed using the Harmonic Analysis of Time Series (HANTS) algorithm, producing smooth NDVI annual profiles on a pixel-by-pixel basis. In order to derive LSP metrics for each year, namely Start, End and Length of Growing Season, we selected the Midpoint-pixel local threshold method, based on the White et al. (2009) inter-comparison. A landscape-based stratification, using the European Landscape Classification (LANMAP) (Mücher et al., 2010) allowed us to examine LSP characteristics and trends for the different European eco-regions. We demonstrate significant shifts in LSP metrics over the study period, with a general lengthening of the growing season in Europe of approximately 0.4 days year-1. LSP trends varied significantly between eco-regions, and we discuss potential reasons for these spatially diverse trends. de Jong, R., et al. (2013), Spatial relationship between climatologies and changes in global vegetation activity, Global Change Biology, 19(6), 1953-1964. Mücher, C. A., J. A. Klijn, D. M. Wascher, and

  13. Past, present and future variations of extreme rainfall in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Ida Bülow

    of non-stationary extreme rainfall behaviour, in Denmark as well as worldwide. To provide recommendations on future design intensities it is necessary to explore and understand patterns of temporal variation in urban design rainfall and identify potential drivers behind past, present and future changes....... In addition, there is a need for an extreme value model that can include both regional and temporal explanatory variables, evaluate their significance and on this basis estimate the design rainfall. Both topics are addressed in this thesis. The analysed data material includes 137 years of observed daily...... is not reproduced well by the two climate models assessed. The thesis also presents a framework in which regional and temporal variability of extreme rainfall statistics can be modelled simultaneously. The framework is an extension of the regional model presently used for estimation of urban design intensities...

  14. A 30-year perspective on psychosocial issues in lung cancer: how lung cancer "Came out of the Closet".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, Talia; Weinberger, Mark; Schwerd, Arielle M; Holland, Jimmie

    2012-11-01

    Psychological responses to lung cancer have changed over the past 30 years as perceptions of the disease have changed. Previously seen as a fatal diagnosis, it is now regarded as a cancer whose treatment is increasingly effective as the science of the disease advances. The stigma of smoking is diminishing as more is learned about genetic factors and as more nonsmokers are diagnosed. Support groups are now widely available. The increasing social support and greater knowledge of lung cancer provide a more supportive environment in which patients cope with lung cancer today compared with 30 years ago.

  15. Hybrid Wavelet-Postfix-GP Model for Rainfall Prediction of Anand Region of India

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    Vipul K. Dabhi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available An accurate prediction of rainfall is crucial for national economy and management of water resources. The variability of rainfall in both time and space makes the rainfall prediction a challenging task. The present work investigates the applicability of a hybrid wavelet-postfix-GP model for daily rainfall prediction of Anand region using meteorological variables. The wavelet analysis is used as a data preprocessing technique to remove the stochastic (noise component from the original time series of each meteorological variable. The Postfix-GP, a GP variant, and ANN are then employed to develop models for rainfall using newly generated subseries of meteorological variables. The developed models are then used for rainfall prediction. The out-of-sample prediction performance of Postfix-GP and ANN models is compared using statistical measures. The results are comparable and suggest that Postfix-GP could be explored as an alternative tool for rainfall prediction.

  16. Relationships between atmospheric circulation indices and rainfall in Northern Algeria and comparison of observed and RCM-generated rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taibi, S.; Meddi, M.; Mahé, G.; Assani, A.

    2017-01-01

    This work aims, as a first step, to analyze rainfall variability in Northern Algeria, in particular extreme events, during the period from 1940 to 2010. Analysis of annual rainfall shows that stations in the northwest record a significant decrease in rainfall since the 1970s. Frequencies of rainy days for each percentile (5th, 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, 95th, and 99th) and each rainfall interval class (1-5, 5-10, 10-20, 20-50, and ≥50 mm) do not show a significant change in the evolution of daily rainfall. The Tenes station is the only one to show a significant decrease in the frequency of rainy days up to the 75th percentile and for the 10-20-mm interval class. There is no significant change in the temporal evolution of extreme events in the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles. The relationships between rainfall variability and general atmospheric circulation indices for interannual and extreme event variability are moderately influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Mediterranean Oscillation. Significant correlations are observed between the Southern Oscillation Index and annual rainfall in the northwestern part of the study area, which is likely linked with the decrease in rainfall in this region. Seasonal rainfall in Northern Algeria is affected by the Mediterranean Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation in the west. The ENSEMBLES regional climate models (RCMs) are assessed using the bias method to test their ability to reproduce rainfall variability at different time scales. The Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM), Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich (ETHZ), and Forschungszentrum Geesthacht (GKSS) models yield the least biased results.

  17. Bayesian spatiotemporal interpolation of rainfall in the Central Chilean Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ossa-Moreno, Juan; Keir, Greg; McIntyre, Neil

    2016-04-01

    Water availability in the populous and economically significant Central Chilean region is governed by complex interactions between precipitation, temperature, snow and glacier melt, and streamflow. Streamflow prediction at daily time scales depends strongly on accurate estimations of precipitation in this predominantly dry region, particularly during the winter period. This can be difficult as gauged rainfall records are scarce, especially in the higher elevation regions of the Chilean Andes, and topographic influences on rainfall are not well understood. Remotely sensed precipitation and topographic products can be used to construct spatiotemporal multivariate regression models to estimate rainfall at ungauged locations. However, classical estimation methods such as kriging cannot easily accommodate the complicated statistical features of the data, including many 'no rainfall' observations, as well as non-normality, non-stationarity, and temporal autocorrelation. We use a separable space-time model to predict rainfall using the R-INLA package for computationally efficient Bayesian inference, using the gridded CHIRPS satellite-based rainfall dataset and digital elevation models as covariates. We jointly model both the probability of rainfall occurrence on a given day (using a binomial likelihood) as well as amount (using a gamma likelihood or similar). Correlation in space and time is modelled using a Gaussian Markov Random Field (GMRF) with a Matérn spatial covariance function which can evolve over time according to an autoregressive model if desired. It is possible to evaluate the GMRF at relatively coarse temporal resolution to speed up computations, but still produce daily rainfall predictions. We describe the process of model selection and inference using an information criterion approach, which we use to objectively select from competing models with various combinations of temporal smoothing, likelihoods, and autoregressive model orders.

  18. Terrestrial cosmogenic 3He: where are we 30 years after its discovery?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blard, Pierre-Henri; Pik, Raphaël; Farley, Kenneth A.; Lavé, Jérôme; Marrocchi, Yves

    2016-04-01

    It is now 30 years since cosmogenic 3He has been detected for the first time in a terrestrial sample (Kurz, 1986). 3He is now a widely used geochemical tool in many fields of Earth sciences: volcanology, tectonics, paleoclimatology. 3He has the advantage to have a high "production rate" to "detection limit" ratio, allowing surfaces as young as hundred of years to be dated. Although its nuclear stability implies several limitations, it moreover represents a useful alternative to 10Be in mafic environments. This contribution is a review of the progresses that have been accomplished since this discovery, and discuss strategies to improve both the accuracy and the precision of this geochronometer. 1) Measurement of cosmogenic 3He Correction of magmatic 3He. To estimate the non-cosmogenic magmatic 3He, Kurz (1986) invented a two steps method involving crushing of phenocrysts (to analyze the isotopic ratio of the magmatic component), followed by a subsequent melting of the sample, to extract the remaining components, including the cosmogenic 3He: 3Hec = 3Hemelt -4Hemelt x (3He/4He)magmatic (1) Several studies suggested that the preliminary crushing may induce a loss of cosmogenic 3He (Hilton et al., 1993; Yokochi et al., 2005; Blard et al., 2006), implying an underestimate of the cosmogenic 3He measurement. However, subsequent work did not replicate these observations (Blard et al., 2008; Goerhing et al., 2010), suggesting an influence of the used apparatus. An isochron method (by directly melting several phenocrysts aliquots) is an alternative to avoid the preliminary crushing step (Blard and Pik, 2008). Atmospheric contamination. Protin et al. (in press) provides robust evidences for a large and irreversible contamination of atmospheric helium on silicate surfaces. This unexpected behavior may reconcile the contrasted observations about the amplitude of crushing loss. This undesirable atmospheric contamination is negligible if grain fractions smaller than 150 mm are

  19. A retrospective analysis of heterophoria values in a clinical population aged 18 to 30 years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N.T. Makgaba

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Information on heterophoria values in South Africans  is  scanty. The  purpose  of  this  paper therefore, is to present information on the distribution of heterophoria in a clinical popula-tion aged 18 to 30 years, which hitherto is not available. The data presented here was obtained from  the  record  cards  of  475  black  South African  patients  examined  at  the  Optometry clinic, University of Limpopo (Turfloop cam-pus between 2000 and 2005. The patients were examined by final year students under the supervision  of  qualified  optometrists.  Heterophoria was  measured  for  each  patient  using  the  von Graefe  method.  The  horizontal  heterophoria for distance vision (6 m ranged from 16 prism diopters (pd esophoria to 12 pd exophoria with a mean of 0.74 pd exophoria (SD = ± 2.84 pd. For  distance  vision,  esophoria  ranged  from 0.5 to 16 pd with a mean of 3.08 pd (SD = ± 3.09, while exophoria ranged from 0.5 pd to 12 pd with a mean of 2.21 pd (SD = 1.82 pd. For near vision (0.4 m, the horizontal phorias ranged from 17 pd esophoria to 15 pd exopho-ria with a mean of 3.84 pd exophoria (SD = ± 4.80 pd. The near esophorias ranged from 0.5 to 17 pd with a mean 4.88 pd (SD = ± 3.41, while the exophorias ranged from 1.0 to 15 pd with a mean of 6.30 pd (SD = ± 2.58. Vertical heterophoria for distance vision ranged from 5 to 3 pd right hyperphoria with a mean of 0.05 pd right hyperphoria (SD = ± 0.76 whereas at near it ranged from 4 to 6 pd right hyperphoria with a mean of 0.08 pd right hypophoria (SD =  ±  0.96.  The  distributions  of  heterophoria at distance and near were non-normal.  There was  no  significant  gender  variation  in  the horizontal  values  for  distance  vision  and  the vertical  (distance  and  near  ones.  However, there was a statistically significant gender varia-tion  in  the  near  horizontal  values  (p

  20. The asymmetry of rainfall process

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YU RuCong; YUAN WeiHua; LI Jian

    2013-01-01

    Using hourly station rain gauge data in the warm season (May-October) during 1961-2006,the climatological features of the evolution of the rainfall process are analyzed by compositing rainfall events centered on the maximum hourly rainfall amount of each event.The results reveal that the rainfall process is asymmetric,which means rainfall events usually reach the maximum in a short period and then experience a relatively longer retreat to the end of the event.The effects of rainfall intensity,duration and peak time,as well as topography,are also considered.It is found that the asymmetry is more obvious in rainfall events with strong intensity and over areas with complex terrain,such as the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau,the Hengduan Mountains,and the Yungui Plateau.The asymmetry in short-duration rainfall is more obvious than that in long-duration rainfall,but the regional differences are weaker.The rainfall events that reach the maximum during 14:00-02:00 LST exhibit the strongest asymmetry and those during 08:00-14:00 LST show the weakest asymmetry.The rainfall intensity at the peak time stands out,which means that the rainfall intensity increases and decreases quickly both before and after the peak.These results can improve understanding of the rainfall process and provide metrics for the evaluation of climate models.Moreover,the strong asymmetry of the rainfall process should be highly noted when taking measures to defending against geological hazards,such as collapses,landslides and debris flows throughout southwestern China.

  1. Intraseasonal Variability of Summer Monsoon Rainfall and Droughts over Central India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrivastava, Sourabh; Kar, Sarat C.; Sharma, Anu Rani

    2017-02-01

    Rainfall over Madhya Pradesh (MP) in central India has large intra-seasonal variability causing droughts and floods in many years. In this study, rainfall variability in daily and monthly scale over central India has been examined using observed data. Consistency among various datasets such as rainfall, surface temperature, soil moisture and evapotranspiration has been examined. These parameters are from various different sources and critical for drought monitoring and prediction. It is found that during weak phases of monsoon, central India receives deficit rainfall with weaker monsoon circulation. This phase is characterized by an anticyclonic circulation at 850 hPa centered on MP. The EOF analysis of daily rainfall suggests that the two leading modes explain about 23-24% of rainfall variability in intraseasonal timescale. These two modes represent drought/flood conditions over MP. Relationship of weak phases of rainfall over central India with real-time multivariate (RMM) indices of Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been examined. It is found that RMM-6, RMM-7, RMM-1 and RMM-2 describe the weak monsoon conditions over central India. However, frequency of drought occurrence over MP is more during RMM-7 phase. Surface temperature increases by about 0.5°-1° during weak phases of rainfall over this region. Soil moisture and evapotranspiration gradually reduce when rainfall reduces over the study region. Soil moisture and evapotranspiration anomalies have positive pattern during good rainfall events over central India and gradually reduce and become negative anomalies during weak phases.

  2. Continuous rainfall generation for a warmer climate using observed temperature sensitivities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wasko, Conrad; Sharma, Ashish

    2017-01-01

    Continuous rainfall sequences are often used as inputs in hydrologic modeling, particularly where a probabilistic assessment is required. Continuous rainfall sequences provide a means for accounting of all aspects of rainfall that produce flooding, for example, not just the design rainfall event but also the rainfall prior to the extreme rainfall event. With the advent of climate change, higher temperatures have been associated with changes in rainfall, in particular intensifying rainfall extremes with less uniform temporal patterns. Given these demonstrated changes to extreme rainfall with temperature rise, there is a need to modify continuous rainfall generators to account for current and likely future changes in temperature. In this work we propose a novel method for simulating continuous rainfall sequences for a future warmer climate by conditioning parameters on their historical sensitivity with temperature. To demonstrate the proposed technique we use a one-dimensional Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulses model at two locations across Australia. The statistics used in the parameter estimation are conditioned on their historical sensitivity to average monthly temperature to simulate rainfall for a change in temperature. The results are validated by comparing the simulated rainfall against observations originating from differing temperatures and it is shown that the model captures the relative difference in the mean monthly rainfall and monthly maxima. Encouraged by these results we simulate rainfall for higher temperatures and capture expected changes to annual maxima and design temporal patterns for a warmer climate. While we demonstrate our methodology in the simulation of sub-daily rainfall using a specific model, the approach presented here can be applied to all weather generation schemes for projection in a warmer climate.

  3. Hard and soft tissue imaging of the temporomandibular joint 30 years after diagnosis of osteoarthrosis and internal derangement

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    deLeeuw, R; Boering, G; vanderKuijl, B; Stegenga, B

    1996-01-01

    Purpose: This article describes the clinical and imaging findings in the temporomandibular joints (TMJs) of patients 30 years after the initial diagnosis of osteoarthrosis and internal derangement. Patients and Methods: Fifty-five TMJs with a history of osteoarthrosis and internal derangement and 37

  4. TEMPOROMANDIBULAR-JOINT OSTEOARTHROSIS - CLINICAL AND RADIOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS 30 YEARS AFTER NONSURGICAL TREATMENT - A PRELIMINARY-REPORT

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    DELEEUW, R; BOERING, G; STEGENGA, B; DEBONT, LGM

    1993-01-01

    Thirty years after being treated nonsurgically for osteoarthrosis and internal derangement, 14 women and seven men were re-examined clinically and radiographically. The results of this examination were compared with those recorded before and after treatment 30 years ago, and with those of a matched

  5. Longitudinal Pathways between Maternal Mental Health in Infancy and Offspring Romantic Relationships in Adulthood: A 30-Year Prospective Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slominski, Lisa; Sameroff, Arnold; Rosenblum, Katherine; Kasser, Tim

    2011-01-01

    Longitudinal pathways between maternal mental health in infancy and offspring romantic relationship outcomes in adulthood were examined using a 30-year prospective longitudinal study of 196 mothers and their children. Structural equation modeling revealed that maternal mental health at 30 months was related to offspring relationship status and…

  6. 30 years after Chernobyl. What would we make better today?; 30 Jahre nach Tschernobyl. Was wuerden wir heute besser machen?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bieringer, Jacqueline [Bundesamt fuer Strahlenschutz, Freiburg (Germany). Fachgebiet SW 2.5; Hajek, Michael [Oesterreichischer Verband fuer Strahlenschutz, Wien (Austria). Vienna International Centre; Maringer, Franz Josef [BEV - Bundesamt fuer Eich- und Vermessungswesen, Wien (Austria). Referat fuer ionisierende Strahlung und Radioaktivitaet; Murith, Christophe [Bundesamt fuer Gesundheit (BAG), Bern (Switzerland). Abt. Strahlenschutz; Steinkopff, Thomas [Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach (Germany); Wershofen, Herbert [Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt, Braunschweig (Germany). Lab. 6.301; Hefner, Alfred; Maushart, Rupprecht; Steger, Ferdinand

    2016-05-01

    The reactions of the authorities responsible for the measurements of radioactivity in the environment in Germany, Switzerland and Austria ore shown. The further development of the readiness and the possibilities to measure in the last 30 years are described. Also the question of activity measurements after a nuclear accident by single members of the population is dealt with.

  7. A 30+ Year AVHRR LAI and FAPAR Climate Data Record: Algorithm Description and Validation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Claverie

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In- land surface models, which are used to evaluate the role of vegetation in the context of global climate change and variability, LAI and FAPAR play a key role, specifically with respect to the carbon and water cycles. The AVHRR-based LAI/FAPAR dataset offers daily temporal resolution, an improvement over previous products. This climate data record is based on a carefully calibrated and corrected land surface reflectance dataset to provide a high-quality, consistent time-series suitable for climate studies. It spans from mid-1981 to the present. Further, this operational dataset is available in near real-time allowing use for monitoring purposes. The algorithm relies on artificial neural networks calibrated using the MODIS LAI/FAPAR dataset. Evaluation based on cross-comparison with MODIS products and in situ data show the dataset is consistent and reliable with overall uncertainties of 1.03 and 0.15 for LAI and FAPAR, respectively. However, a clear saturation effect is observed in the broadleaf forest biomes with high LAI (>4.5 and FAPAR (>0.8 values.

  8. Probabilistic rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence using a Bayesian approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berti, M.; Martina, M.; Franceschini, S.; Pignone, S.; Simoni, A.; Pizziolo, M.

    2012-04-01

    resulted in landslides must be considered in the analysis. The result is a value of landslide probability (from 0 to 1) for each combination of the selected rainfall variables. The method has been applied to the historical dataset of the Emilia-Romagna Region (Italy). The dataset contains more than 9000 landslide records, for 4141 of which the date of occurrence is reported with a daily accuracy. Among these, 2741 landslides are characterized by a well-defined triggering rainfall (objectively identifiable in terms of duration and intensity) suitable for the analysis. Rainfall that non resulted in landslides account for more than 250000 events. The results clearly show that landslide triggering in the study area is strongly related to rainfall event parameters (duration, intensity, total rainfall) while antecedent rainfall seem to be less important. Moreover, the lines of equal Bayes probability in the rainfall duration- intensity chart are roughly parallel to the regional threshold proposed by Guzzetti et al. (2007), which in our case indicates a landslide probability of about 0.1. The abrupt increase of landslide probability in the duration-intensity plane indicates a radical change of state of the system, proving the existence of a real physical threshold.

  9. Impact of rainfall spatial variability on Flash Flood Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douinot, Audrey; Roux, Hélène; Garambois, Pierre-André; Larnier, Kevin

    2014-05-01

    According to the United States National Hazard Statistics database, flooding and flash flooding have caused the largest number of deaths of any weather-related phenomenon over the last 30 years (Flash Flood Guidance Improvement Team, 2003). Like the storms that cause them, flash floods are very variable and non-linear phenomena in time and space, with the result that understanding and anticipating flash flood genesis is far from straightforward. In the U.S., the Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) estimates the average number of inches of rainfall for given durations required to produce flash flooding in the indicated county. In Europe, flash flood often occurred on small catchments (approximately 100 km2) and it has been shown that the spatial variability of rainfall has a great impact on the catchment response (Le Lay and Saulnier, 2007). Therefore, in this study, based on the Flash flood Guidance method, rainfall spatial variability information is introduced in the threshold estimation. As for FFG, the threshold is the number of millimeters of rainfall required to produce a discharge higher than the discharge corresponding to the first level (yellow) warning of the French flood warning service (SCHAPI: Service Central d'Hydrométéorologie et d'Appui à la Prévision des Inondations). The indexes δ1 and δ2 of Zoccatelli et al. (2010), based on the spatial moments of catchment rainfall, are used to characterize the rainfall spatial distribution. Rainfall spatial variability impacts on warning threshold and on hydrological processes are then studied. The spatially distributed hydrological model MARINE (Roux et al., 2011), dedicated to flash flood prediction is forced with synthetic rainfall patterns of different spatial distributions. This allows the determination of a warning threshold diagram: knowing the spatial distribution of the rainfall forecast and therefore the 2 indexes δ1 and δ2, the threshold value is read on the diagram. A warning threshold diagram is

  10. A first-order assessment of climate change effects on rainfall erosivity and soil erosion in New South Wales, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Bofu; Murphy, Brian; Vaze, Jai; Rawson, Andrew

    2010-05-01

    Rainfall has shown considerable secular variation and statistically significant change on the time scale of decades in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. The climate change predictions seem to suggest an increased rainfall intensity for the region. To assess the likely impact of climate change on rainfall erosivity for 13 sites in NSW, a daily rainfall erosivity model was used to compare rainfall erosivity values using historical rainfall data and adjusted rainfall data representing future climate scenarios. To use the rainfall erosivity model, 6-min rainfall intensity data from the 13 sites were used to calibrate the model. The historical rainfall data were available for the period of 112 years (1895 - 2006) for the 13 sites. Adjusted rainfall data for 112 years were provided based on output from Global Climate Models, namely CSIRO-MK3.0 (CSIRO, Australia), MIROC-M (Centre for Climate Research, Japan); MIUB (Meteorological Institute of the University of Bonn, Germany); MRI (Meteorological Research Institute, Japan). The rainfall erosivity model was run for each of the 13 sites, and mean annual, seasonal rainfall erosivity values were contrasted for the present and future climate scenarios. In addition, rainfall erosivity values were compared for average recurrence intervals of 2, 10, and 100 years so that changes to rainfall erosivity during extreme erosive events can be assessed. The results show rainfall erosivity would increase by about 4.6% on average, and the increase occurs mostly in summer (December-January-February). Output from all 4 models suggests that rainfall erosivity would decrease in winter months. Spatially, the change to rainfall erosivity is quite variable, with greater increase mostly occurring along the coast with a temperate climate. As mean annual soil loss is linearly proportional to rainfall erosion, impact on soil loss of a similar magnitude is therefore implied for the 13 sites in NSW.

  11. Assessing future climatic changes of rainfall extremes at small spatio-temporal scales

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen; Madsen, Henrik;

    2013-01-01

    in relation to urban flooding. The present study focuses on high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) skill in simulating sub-daily rainfall extremes. Temporal and spatial characteristics of output from three different RCM simulations with 25 km resolution are compared to point rainfall extremes estimated......Climate change is expected to influence the occurrence and magnitude of rainfall extremes and hence the flood risks in cities. Major impacts of an increased pluvial flood risk are expected to occur at hourly and sub-hourly resolutions. This makes convective storms the dominant rainfall type...

  12. A new method for spatio-temporal prediction of rainfall- induced landslide

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    Geological condition and rainfall are two most principal conditions inducing landslides in the Chongqing region. By analyzing the forming conditions of rainfall-induced landslides, a new method for spatio-temporal prediction of rainfall-induced landslide is brought forward on the basis of grading and overlapping geological condition and rainfall factor in this paper. At first, semi-quantitative assessment and grading for the geological condition of a certain area or slope can be carried out with the multi-factor interactive matrix. Then the severity of rainfall in that area is grading according to the maximum daily rainfall and the total rainfall in a rainfall course. Finally, the "landslide probability judgement factor" can be worked out through grading and overlapping "geological condition influencing factor" and "rainfall influencing factor", by which the landslide can be graded into 4 grades, they are landslide extremely easily happening, landslide easily happening, landslide difficultly happening and landslide hardly ever happening respectively. More accurate spatio-temporal prediction of rainfall-induced landslides can come true on the ground of detailed geological survey of some dangerous slopes in an area and more precise weather forecast. Finally, the reliability and feasibility of carrying out the spatio-temporal prediction of rainfall-induced landslides with the method of "two factors" grading and overlapping are validated by the example of Jipazi landslide.

  13. Recent Trends in the Regime of Extreme Rainfall in the West African Sahel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lebel, T.; Panthou, G.; Vischel, T.; Quantin, G.

    2015-12-01

    West Africa is known for having experienced an extreme drought starting at the end of the 1960s that is recognized to be the greatest climatic signal at regional scale since the beginning of meteorological measurements. Despite a moderate recovery of the annual precipitations since the 1990s in the Central and Eastern Sahel, rainfall over the last two decades remains lower by 15% than during the period 1950-1970. Paradoxically these persisting dry conditions have been accompanied by a dramatic increase of flood fatalities especially over the recent 10 years. Using a homogeneous dataset of 41 daily rainfall series covering the period 1950-2010, an integrated regional approach based on the statistical extreme value theory was then used to reduce the local sampling effects and to provide robust estimates of intense rainfall distributions to be analyzed in conjunction with the annual rainfall series. This led to identify some key rainfall regime characteristics related to the decadal scale rainfall variability over the region. The main factor of the rainfall deficit during the great 1970-2000 drought was a lower occurrence of rainy days, extreme rainy days being the most affected. Over the last ten years, the Sahelian rainfall regime is characterized by a lasting deficit of the number of rainy days, while at the same time the extreme rainfall occurrence is on the rise. As a consequence the proportion of annual rainfall associated with extreme rainfall has increased from 17% in the 1970-1990 years to 19% in the 1991-2000 years and to 22% in the 2001-2010 years. This tends to support the idea that a more extreme climate has been observed over the last 10 years, with a persisting deficit of the occurrence of rainfall associated with an increase of the occurrence of extreme daily rainfall. Our results also suggest that the intensification of the precipitation regime has likely contributed to the aggravation of the hydrological risks in the Sahel.

  14. Public Release of 30-year (1979-2008) NLDAS High-resolution Products - Analysis and Validation for Soil Moisture and Temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Y.; Ek, M. B.; Wood, E. F.; Luo, L.; Sheffield, J.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Livneh, B.; Mocko, D. M.; Cosgrove, B.; Meng, C. J.; Wei, H.; Koren, V.; Schaake, J. C.; Mo, K. C.; Mitchell, K.

    2009-12-01

    The NCEP Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) collaborated with its CPPA (Climate Prediction Program of the Americas) partners to develop a North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS, http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/nldas). The NLDAS includes multi-model analysis/monitoring products to focus on drought and flooding monitoring. NLDAS products consist of 30-year (1979-2008) retrospective and 0.5-year near realtime (2009-current time, with a 4-day lag) water (i.e., evapotranspiration, runoff, canopy evaporation, sublimation) and energy (sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, ground heat flux, net radiation) fluxes, and state (i.e., soil moisture with different layers, soil temperatures, snow water equivalent, snow depth, snow cover) variables with an hourly temporal resolution and a 1/8th degree spatial resolution for four land surface models (NCEP/Noah, NASA/Mosaic, OHD/SAC, and Princeton/VIC). This study used common hourly land surface forcing derived from NCEP's retrospective and realtime North American Regional Reanalysis System (NARR) except for precipitation. The precipitation forcing is anchored to a daily gauge-only precipitation analysis over CONUS that applies the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) correction. This daily precipitation analysis is then temporally disaggregated to hourly precipitation amounts using stage II radar and satellite retrieved precipitation products. The NARR-based surface downward solar radiation is bias-corrected using seven years (1997-2004) of GOES satellite-derived solar radiation retrievals. This presentation summarizes the NLDAS concept, configuration, forcing data, the four land surface models and their output. All 30-year hourly forcing and hourly outputs from four land surface models are stored on a NCEP public server, which can be download by public users. In this presentation, we analyze soil moisture and temperature for four models and validate them using the Illinois soil

  15. Comparative Analysis of Data Mining Techniques for Malaysian Rainfall Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suhaila Zainudin

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate change prediction analyses the behaviours of weather for a specific time. Rainfall forecasting is a climate change task where specific features such as humidity and wind will be used to predict rainfall in specific locations. Rainfall prediction can be achieved using classification task under Data Mining. Different techniques lead to different performances depending on rainfall data representation including representation for long term (months patterns and short-term (daily patterns. Selecting an appropriate technique for a specific duration of rainfall is a challenging task. This study analyses multiple classifiers such as Naïve Bayes, Support Vector Machine, Decision Tree, Neural Network and Random Forest for rainfall prediction using Malaysian data. The dataset has been collected from multiple stations in Selangor, Malaysia. Several pre-processing tasks have been applied in order to resolve missing values and eliminating noise. The experimental results show that with small training data (10% from 1581 instances Random Forest correctly classified 1043 instances. This is the strength of an ensemble of trees in Random Forest where a group of classifiers can jointly beat a single classifier.

  16. Spatio-temporal variability of the polar middle atmosphere. Insights from over 30 years of research satellite observations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lahoz, W.A.; Orsolini, Y.J.; Manney, G.L.; Minschwaner, K.; Allen, D.R.; Errera, Q.; Jackson, D.R.; Lambert, A.; Lee, J.; Pumphrey, H.; Schwartz, M.; Wu, D.

    2012-07-01

    We discuss the insights that research satellite observations from the last 30 years have provided on the spatio-temporal variability of the polar middle atmosphere. Starting from the time of the NASA LIMS (Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere) and TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) instruments, both launched in 1978, we show how these observations have augmented our knowledge of the polar middle atmosphere, in particular how information on ozone and tracers has augmented our knowledge of: (i) the spatial and temporal characteristics of the wintertime polar stratosphere and the summertime circulation; and (ii) the roles of chemistry and transport in determining the stratospheric ozone distribution. We address the increasing joint use of observations and models, in particular in data assimilation, in contributing to this understanding. Finally, we outline requirements to allow continuation of the wealth of information on the polar middle atmosphere provided by research satellites over the last 30 years.(Author)

  17. Investigation on rainfall extremes events trough a geoadditive model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bocci, C.; Caporali, E.; Petrucci, A.; Rossi, G.

    2012-04-01

    Rainfall can be considered a very important variable, and rainfall extreme events analysis of great concern for the enormous impacts that they may have on everyday life particularly when related to intense rainfalls and floods, and hydraulic risk management. On the catchment area of Arno River in Tuscany, Central Italy, a geoadditive mixed model of rainfall extremes is developed. Most of the territory of Arno River has suffered in the past of many severe hydro-geological events, with high levels of risk due to the vulnerability of a unique artistic and cultural heritage. The area has a complex topography that greatly influences the precipitation regime. The dataset is composed by the time series of the annual maxima of daily rainfall recorded in about 400 rain gauges, spatially distributed over the catchment area of about 8.800 km2. The record period covers mainly the second half of 20th century. The rainfall observations are assumed to follow generalized extreme value distributions whose locations are spatially dependent and where the dependence is captured using a geoadditive model. In particular, since rainfall has a natural spatial domain and a significant spatial variability, a spatial hierarchical model for extremes is used. The spatial hierarchical models, in fact, take into account data from all locations, borrowing strength from neighbouring locations when they estimate parameters and are of great interest when small set of data is available, as in the case of rainfall extreme values. Together with rain gauges location variables further physiographic variables are investigated as explanation variables. The implemented geoadditive mixed model of spatially referenced time series of rainfall extreme values, is able to capture the spatial dynamics of the rainfall extreme phenomenon. Since the model shows evidence of a spatial trend in the rainfall extreme dynamic, the temporal dynamic and the time influence can be also taken into account. The implemented

  18. Fessenheim: 30 years of nuclear fuel operation; Fessenheim: 30 ans d'exploitation du combustible nucleaire

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abgrall, G. [Centrale de Fessenheim, EDF, 68 - Dessenheim (France)

    2008-03-15

    Fessenheim units 1 and 2 are the first two 900 MW PWR put into operation in France (1977). This article reviews 30 years of change, optimization and feedback experience from Fessenheim, concerning: -) fuel assemblies (particularly the design of some components like grids, ends and guide tubes), -) the reload fuel management (to get a higher unloading burn-up), -) the refueling machine and tools (heavy modifications to reduce the human factor), and -) work organization (work shifts and staff training). (A.C.)

  19. Rainfall analysis for Indian monsoon region using the merged rain gauge observations and satellite estimates: Evaluation of monsoon rainfall features

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    S K Roy Bhowmik; Ananda K Das

    2007-06-01

    Objective analysis of daily rainfall at the resolution of 1° grid for the Indian monsoon region has been carried out merging dense land rainfall observations and INSAT derived precipitation estimates. This daily analysis, being based on high dense rain gauge observations was found to be very realistic and able to reproduce detailed features of Indian summer monsoon. The inter-comparison with the observations suggests that the new analysis could distinctly capture characteristic features of the summer monsoon such as north–south oriented belt of heavy rainfall along the Western Ghats with sharp gradient of rainfall between the west coast heavy rain region and the rain shadow region to the east, pockets of heavy rainfall along the location of monsoon trough/low, over the east central parts of the country, over north–east India, along the foothills of Himalayas and over the north Bay of Bengal. When this product was used to assess the quality of other available standard climate products (CMAP and ECMWF reanalysis) at the grid resolution of 2.5°, it was found that the orographic heavy rainfall along Western Ghats of India was poorly identified by them. However, the GPCC analysis (gauge only) at the resolution of 1° grid closely discerns the new analysis. This suggests that there is a need for a higher resolution analysis with adequate rain gauge observations to retain important aspects of the summer monsoon over India. The case studies illustrated show that the daily analysis is able to capture large-scale as well as mesoscale features of monsoon precipitation systems. This study with data of two seasons (2001 and 2003) has shown sufficiently promising results for operational application, particularly for the validation of NWP models.

  20. Enhancing a rainfall-runoff model to assess the impacts of BMPs and LID practices on storm runoff.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yaoze; Ahiablame, Laurent M; Bralts, Vincent F; Engel, Bernard A

    2015-01-01

    Best management practices (BMPs) and low impact development (LID) practices are increasingly being used as stormwater management techniques to reduce the impacts of urban development on hydrology and water quality. To assist planners and decision-makers at various stages of development projects (planning, implementation, and evaluation), user-friendly tools are needed to assess the effectiveness of BMPs and LID practices. This study describes a simple tool, the Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment-LID (L-THIA-LID), which is enhanced with additional BMPs and LID practices, improved approaches to estimate hydrology and water quality, and representation of practices in series (meaning combined implementation). The tool was used to evaluate the performance of BMPs and LID practices individually and in series with 30 years of daily rainfall data in four types of idealized land use units and watersheds (low density residential, high density residential, industrial, and commercial). Simulation results were compared with the results of other published studies. The simulated results showed that reductions in runoff volume and pollutant loads after implementing BMPs and LID practices, both individually and in series, were comparable with the observed impacts of these practices. The L-THIA-LID 2.0 model is capable of assisting decision makers in evaluating environmental impacts of BMPs and LID practices, thereby improving the effectiveness of stormwater management decisions.

  1. Estimating Flood Quantiles on the Basis of Multi-Event Rainfall Simulation – Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jarosińska Elżbieta

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an approach to estimating the probability distribution of annual discharges Q based on rainfall-runoff modelling using multiple rainfall events. The approach is based on the prior knowledge about the probability distribution of annual maximum daily totals of rainfall P in a natural catchment, random disaggregation of the totals into hourly values, and rainfall-runoff modelling. The presented Multi-Event Simulation of Extreme Flood method (MESEF combines design event method based on single-rainfall event modelling, and continuous simulation method used for estimating the maximum discharges of a given exceedance probability using rainfall-runoff models. In the paper, the flood quantiles were estimated using the MESEF method, and then compared to the flood quantiles estimated using classical statistical method based on observed data.

  2. What rainfall events trigger landslides on the West Coast US?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biasutti, Michela; Seager, Richard; Kirschbaum, Dalia

    2016-04-01

    A dataset of landslide occurrences compiled by collating google news reports covers 9 full years of data. We show that, while this compilation cannot provide consistent and widespread monitoring everywhere, it is adequate to capture the distribution of events in the major urban areas of the West Coast US and it can be used to provide a quantitative relationship between landslides and rainfall events. The case of the Seattle metropolitan area is presented as an example. The landslide dataset shows a clear seasonality in landslide occurrence, corresponding to the seasonality of rainfall, modified by the accumulation of soil moisture as winter progresses. Interannual variability of landslide occurrences is also linked to interannual variability of monthly rainfall. In most instances, landslides are clustered on consecutive days or at least within the same pentad and correspond to days of large rainfall accumulation at the regional scale. A joint analysis of the landslide data and of the high-resolution PRISM daily rainfall accumulation shows that on days when landslides occurred, the distribution of rainfall was shifted, with rainfall accumulation higher than 10mm/day being more common. Accumulations above 50mm/day much increase the probability of landslides, including the possibility of a major landslide event (one with multiple landslides in a day). The synoptic meteorological conditions associated with these major events show a mid-tropospheric ridge to the south of the target area steering a surface low and bringing enhanced precipitable water towards the Pacific North West. The interaction of the low-level flow with the local orography results in instances of a strong Puget Sound Convergence Zone, with widespread rainfall accumulation above 30mm/day and localized maxima as high as 100mm/day or more.

  3. Changing patterns in rainfall extremes in South Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamruzzaman, Mohammad; Beecham, Simon; Metcalfe, Andrew V.

    2017-02-01

    Daily rainfall records from seven stations in South Australia, with record lengths from 50 to 137 years and a common period of 36 years, are investigated for evidence of changes in the statistical distribution of annual total and annual average of monthly daily maxima. In addition, the monthly time series of monthly totals and monthly daily maxima are analysed for three stations for which records exceed 100 years. The monthly series show seasonality and provide evidence of a reduction in rainfall when the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is negative, which is modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). However, the monthly series do not provide any evidence of a consistent trend or of any changes in the seasonal pattern. Multivariate analyses, typically used in statistical quality control (SQC), are applied to time series of yearly totals and of averages of the 12 monthly daily maxima, during the common 36-year period. Although there are some outlying points in the charts, there is no evidence of any trend or step changes. However, some supplementary permutation tests do provide weak evidence of an increase of variability of rainfall measures. Furthermore, a factor analysis does provide some evidence of a change in the spatial structure of extremes. The variability of a factor which represents the difference between extremes in the Adelaide Hills and the plains increases in the second 18 years relative to the first 18 years. There is also some evidence that the mean of this factor has increased in absolute magnitude.

  4. Thorotrast and in vivo thorium dioxide: numerical simulation of 30 years of alpha radiation absorption by the tissues near a large compact source

    CERN Document Server

    Bianconi, Andrea

    2014-01-01

    Background: The epidemiology of the slightly radioactive contrast agent named Thorotrast presents a very long latency period between the injection and the development of the related pathologies. It is an example of the more general problem posed by a radioactive internal contaminant whose effects are not noteworthy in the short term but become dramatic in the long period. A point that is still to be explored is fluctuations (in space and time) in the localized absorption of radiation by the tissues. Methods: A Monte Carlo simulation code has been developed to study over a 30 year period the daily absorption of alpha radiation by micrometer sized portions of tissue placed at a distance of 0-100 micrometers from a model source, that approximates a compact thorium dioxide source in liver or spleen whose size is larger or equal to 20 micrometers. The biological depletion of the daughter nuclei of the thorium series is taken into account. The initial condition assumes chemically purified natural thorium. Results: ...

  5. Climate change in the next 30 years: What can a convection-permitting model tell us that we did not already know?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fosser, G.; Khodayar, S.; Berg, P.

    2016-06-01

    To investigate the climate change in the next 30 years over a complex terrain in southwestern Germany, simulations performed with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM at convection-permitting resolution are compared to simulations at 7 km resolution with parameterised convection. An earlier study has shown the main benefits of convection-permitting resolution in the hourly statistics and the diurnal cycle of precipitation intensities. Here, we investigate whether the improved simulation of precipitation in the convection-permitting model is affecting future climate projections in summer. Overall, the future scenario (ECHAM5 with A1B forcing) brings weak changes in mean precipitation, but stronger hourly intensities in the morning and less frequent but more intense daily precipitation. The two model simulations produce similar changes in climate, despite differences in their physical characteristics linked to the formation of convective precipitation. A significant increase in the morning precipitation probably due to large-scale forced convection is found when considering only the most extreme events (above 50 mm/day). In this case, even the diurnal cycles of precipitation and convection-related indices are similar between resolutions, leading to the conclusion that the 7 km model sufficiently resolves the most extreme convective events. In this region and time periods, the 7 km resolution is deemed sufficient for most assessments of near future precipitation change. However, conclusions could be dependent on the characteristics of the region of investigation.

  6. Climate change in the next 30 years: What can a convection-permitting model tell us that we did not already know?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fosser, G.; Khodayar, S.; Berg, P.

    2017-03-01

    To investigate the climate change in the next 30 years over a complex terrain in southwestern Germany, simulations performed with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM at convection-permitting resolution are compared to simulations at 7 km resolution with parameterised convection. An earlier study has shown the main benefits of convection-permitting resolution in the hourly statistics and the diurnal cycle of precipitation intensities. Here, we investigate whether the improved simulation of precipitation in the convection-permitting model is affecting future climate projections in summer. Overall, the future scenario (ECHAM5 with A1B forcing) brings weak changes in mean precipitation, but stronger hourly intensities in the morning and less frequent but more intense daily precipitation. The two model simulations produce similar changes in climate, despite differences in their physical characteristics linked to the formation of convective precipitation. A significant increase in the morning precipitation probably due to large-scale forced convection is found when considering only the most extreme events (above 50 mm/day). In this case, even the diurnal cycles of precipitation and convection-related indices are similar between resolutions, leading to the conclusion that the 7 km model sufficiently resolves the most extreme convective events. In this region and time periods, the 7 km resolution is deemed sufficient for most assessments of near future precipitation change. However, conclusions could be dependent on the characteristics of the region of investigation.

  7. Spatial analysis of rainfall trends in the region of Valencia (east Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Luís, M.; Raventós, J.; González-Hidalgo, J. C.; Sánchez, J. R.; Cortina, J.

    2000-10-01

    This paper examines the spatial and temporal rainfall characteristics of the region of Valencia, Western Mediterranean Basin (east Spain), during the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) normal period 1961-1990. The study used a dense and homogeneous daily precipitation database comprising 97 rain-gauge stations. Total and monthly rainfall concentrations have been studied in the context of their mean values, interannual variability and spatial diversification. Trends have been analysed using both parametric and non-parametric tests. In order to establish the spatial distribution of rainfall patterns and to detect homogeneous areas with similar rainfall evolution, a statistic based on the Cramér-von Mises test is proposed. The kriging interpolation methods for characterizing the magnitude of observed changes is used.Areas with contrasting rainfall evolution are identified. In more humid areas, a significant decrease in annual rainfall associated with significant increases in interannual rainfall variability is observed. In inland zones, decreases in total annual rainfall and increases in interannual variability are less clear, but there are indications of an increase in monthly rainfall concentration. In these inland zones, where more forest and woodland areas are located and forest fires are frequent, the observed trends could greatly affect desertification through changes in the disturbance regime. In more arid areas, local variability in rainfall evolution is higher and no significant changes can be defined.

  8. Simulating the daily discharge of the Mandovi River, west coast of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Suprit, K.; Shankar, D.; Venugopal, V.; Bhatkar, N.V.

    A hydrological modelling framework was assembled to simulate the daily discharge of the Mandovi River on the Indian west coast. Approximately 90% of the west-coast rainfall, and therefore discharge, occurs during the summer monsoon (June...

  9. Enhanced Orographic Tropical Rainfall: An Study of the Colombia's rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peñaranda, V. M.; Hoyos Ortiz, C. D.; Mesa, O. J.

    2015-12-01

    Convection in tropical regions may be enhanced by orographic barriers. The orographic enhancement is an intensification of rain rates caused by the forced lifting of air over a mountainous structure. Orographic heavy rainfall events, occasionally, comes along by flooding, debris flow and substantial amount of looses, either economics or human lives. Most of the heavy convective rainfall events, occurred in Colombia, have left a lot of victims and material damages by flash flooding. An urgent action is required by either scientific communities or society, helping to find preventive solutions against these kind of events. Various scientific literature reports address the feedback process between the convection and the local orographic structures. The orographic enhancement could arise by several physical mechanism: precipitation transport on leeward side, convection triggered by the forcing of air over topography, the seeder-feeder mechanism, among others. The identification of the physical mechanisms for orographic enhancement of rainfall has not been studied over Colombia. As far as we know, orographic convective tropical rainfall is just the main factor for the altitudinal belt of maximum precipitation, but the lack of detailed hydro-meteorological measurements have precluded a complete understanding of the tropical rainfall in Colombia and its complex terrain. The emergence of the multifractal theory for rainfall has opened a field of research which builds a framework for parsimonious modeling of physical process. Studies about the scaling behavior of orographic rainfall have found some modulating functions between the rainfall intensity probability distribution and the terrain elevation. The overall objective is to advance in the understanding of the orographic influence over the Colombian tropical rainfall based on observations and scaling-analysis techniques. We use rainfall maps, weather radars scans and ground-based rainfall data. The research strategy is

  10. Variability in rainfall at monitoring stations and derivation of a long-term rainfall intensity record in the Grand Canyon Region, Arizona, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caster, Joshua; Sankey, Joel B.

    2016-04-11

    In this study, we examine rainfall datasets of varying temporal length, resolution, and spatial distribution to characterize rainfall depth, intensity, and seasonality for monitoring stations along the Colorado River within Marble and Grand Canyons. We identify maximum separation distances between stations at which rainfall measurements might be most useful for inferring rainfall characteristics at other locations. We demonstrate a method for applying relations between daily rainfall depth and intensity, from short-term high-resolution data to lower-resolution longer-term data, to synthesize a long-term record of daily rainfall intensity from 1950–2012. We consider the implications of our spatio-temporal characterization of rainfall for understanding local landscape change in sedimentary deposits and archaeological sites, and for better characterizing past and present rainfall and its potential role in overland flow erosion within the canyons. We find that rainfall measured at stations within the river corridor is spatially correlated at separation distances of tens of kilometers, and is not correlated at the large elevation differences that separate stations along the Colorado River from stations above the canyon rim. These results provide guidance for reasonable separation distances at which rainfall measurements at stations within the Grand Canyon region might be used to infer rainfall at other nearby locations along the river. Like other rugged landscapes, spatial variability between rainfall measured at monitoring stations appears to be influenced by canyon and rim physiography and elevation, with preliminary results suggesting the highest elevation landform in the region, the Kaibab Plateau, may function as an important orographic influence. Stations at specific locations within the canyons and along the river, such as in southern (lower) Marble Canyon and eastern (upper) Grand Canyon, appear to have strong potential to receive high-intensity rainfall that

  11. Daily Weather Records

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These daily weather records were compiled from a subset of stations in the Global Historical Climatological Network (GHCN)-Daily dataset. A weather record is...

  12. Markov modulated Poisson process models incorporating covariates for rainfall intensity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thayakaran, R; Ramesh, N I

    2013-01-01

    Time series of rainfall bucket tip times at the Beaufort Park station, Bracknell, in the UK are modelled by a class of Markov modulated Poisson processes (MMPP) which may be thought of as a generalization of the Poisson process. Our main focus in this paper is to investigate the effects of including covariate information into the MMPP model framework on statistical properties. In particular, we look at three types of time-varying covariates namely temperature, sea level pressure, and relative humidity that are thought to be affecting the rainfall arrival process. Maximum likelihood estimation is used to obtain the parameter estimates, and likelihood ratio tests are employed in model comparison. Simulated data from the fitted model are used to make statistical inferences about the accumulated rainfall in the discrete time interval. Variability of the daily Poisson arrival rates is studied.

  13. Simulation of extreme rainfall and projection of future changes using the GLIMCLIM model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rashid, Md. Mamunur; Beecham, Simon; Chowdhury, Rezaul Kabir

    2016-08-01

    In this study, the performance of the Generalized LInear Modelling of daily CLImate sequence (GLIMCLIM) statistical downscaling model was assessed to simulate extreme rainfall indices and annual maximum daily rainfall (AMDR) when downscaled daily rainfall from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCM) (four GCMs and two scenarios) output datasets and then their changes were estimated for the future period 2041-2060. The model was able to reproduce the monthly variations in the extreme rainfall indices reasonably well when forced by the NCEP reanalysis datasets. Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping (FAQM) was used to remove bias in the simulated daily rainfall when forced by CMIP5 GCMs, which reduced the discrepancy between observed and simulated extreme rainfall indices. Although the observed AMDR were within the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of the simulated AMDR, the model consistently under-predicted the inter-annual variability of AMDR. A non-stationary model was developed using the generalized linear model for local, shape and scale to estimate the AMDR with an annual exceedance probability of 0.01. The study shows that in general, AMDR is likely to decrease in the future. The Onkaparinga catchment will also experience drier conditions due to an increase in consecutive dry days coinciding with decreases in heavy (>long term 90th percentile) rainfall days, empirical 90th quantile of rainfall and maximum 5-day consecutive total rainfall for the future period (2041-2060) compared to the base period (1961-2000).

  14. Statistical downscaling of CMIP5 outputs for projecting future changes in rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rashid, Md. Mamunur, E-mail: mdmamunur.rashid@mymail.unisa.edu.au [Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095 (Australia); Beecham, Simon, E-mail: simon.beecham@unisa.edu.au [Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095 (Australia); Chowdhury, Rezaul K., E-mail: rezaulkabir@uaeu.ac.ae [Centre for Water Management and Reuse, School of Natural and Built Environments, University of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, SA 5095 (Australia); Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, PO Box 15551 (United Arab Emirates)

    2015-10-15

    A generalized linear model was fitted to stochastically downscaled multi-site daily rainfall projections from CMIP5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia to assess future changes to hydrologically relevant metrics. For this purpose three GCMs, two multi-model ensembles (one by averaging the predictors of GCMs and the other by regressing the predictors of GCMs against reanalysis datasets) and two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were considered. The downscaling model was able to reasonably reproduce the observed historical rainfall statistics when the model was driven by NCEP reanalysis datasets. Significant bias was observed in the rainfall when downscaled from historical outputs of GCMs. Bias was corrected using the Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping technique. Future changes in rainfall were computed from the bias corrected downscaled rainfall forced by GCM outputs for the period 2041–2060 and these were then compared to the base period 1961–2000. The results show that annual and seasonal rainfalls are likely to significantly decrease for all models and scenarios in the future. The number of dry days and maximum consecutive dry days will increase whereas the number of wet days and maximum consecutive wet days will decrease. Future changes of daily rainfall occurrence sequences combined with a reduction in rainfall amounts will lead to a drier catchment, thereby reducing the runoff potential. Because this is a catchment that is a significant source of Adelaide's water supply, irrigation water and water for maintaining environmental flows, an effective climate change adaptation strategy is needed in order to face future potential water shortages. - Highlights: • A generalized linear model was used for multi-site daily rainfall downscaling. • Rainfall was downscaled from CMIP5 GCM outputs. • Two multi-model ensemble approaches were used. • Bias was corrected using the Frequency Adapted Quantile Mapping

  15. The decreasing importance of acidification episodes with recovery from acidification: an analysis of the 30-year record from Birkenes, Norway

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. F. Wright

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available The 30-year record 1975–2004 of weekly samples of streamwater chemistry from Birkenes, Norway, shows 106 acid episodes below the threshold of ANC –50 μeq l−1. The frequency, severity and duration of episodes have diminished since about 1990 due to chemical recovery following reduced deposition of sulphur. In particular SO4-driven episodes in the first runoff following drought have become less intense and less frequent, whereas episodes driven by climate (wind, high flow continue. The data show significant empirical relationships between strength of the driver, degree of chemical recovery, and severity of ANC depression.

  16. The decreasing importance of acidification episodes with recovery from acidification: an analysis of the 30-year record from Birkenes, Norway

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. F. Wright

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available The 30-year record 1975–2004 of weekly samples of streamwater chemistry from Birkenes, Norway, shows 106 acid episodes below the threshold of ANC−50 µeq l−1. The frequency, severity and duration of episodes have diminished since about 1990 due to chemical recovery following reduced deposition of sulphur. In particular SO4-driven episodes in the first runoff following drought have become less intense and less frequent, whereas episodes driven by climate (wind, high flow continue. The data show significant empirical relationships between strength of the driver, degree of chemical recovery, and severity of ANC depression.

  17. Tertiary resurfacing after one of the first free flaps in Europe, a reflection on 30 years of microsurgical progress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hart, A M; Tollan, C J; Dabernig, J; Acland, R; Taggart, I

    2007-01-01

    Free flaps have been used for over 30 years. During this period, improved anatomical understanding has increased donor options and available pedicle lengths, permitting safer, single-stage reconstructions with simpler anastomoses. Refinements, such as perforator flaps in particular, have greatly improved donor morbidity, recipient site cosmesis, and the ability to replace 'like with like' while retaining options for innervation. This case highlights the evolution from one of Europe's first free tissue transfers, effectively a perforator flap, through the advent of free muscle flaps to the current generation of contourable perforator flaps. Free flap transfer has become increasingly sophisticated, safer, and more predictable, yet the potential quality of reconstructive outcome has changed little.

  18. Physical education curriculums in the educational institutions of Zakarpattia in the 20-30 years of the XX century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trifan A.

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The questions of history of introduction of the programs are analysed on a physical culture in educational establishments of Zakarpattia in 20-30 years of XX age. From 1924 on Zakarpattia the school programs on physical education were used only in incomplete middle schools and gymnasia. Basis of on-line tutorials and plans of that time was made by the elements of physical exercises, developed the Czech specialists. Directions of taking approach are rotined to school program development in modern education. A decision of the expounded problems in planning is necessary pre-condition of successful and effective educational process.

  19. Rainfall erosivity in New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klik, Andreas; Haas, Kathrin; Dvorackova, Anna; Fuller, Ian

    2014-05-01

    Rainfall and its kinetic energy expressed by the rainfall erosivity is the main driver of soil erosion processes by water. The Rainfall-Runoff Erosivity Factor (R) of the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation is one oft he most widely used parameters describing rainfall erosivity. This factor includes the cumulative effects of the many moderate-sized storms as well as the effects oft he occasional severe ones: R quantifies the effect of raindrop impact and reflects the amopunt and rate of runoff associated with the rain. New Zealand is geologically young and not comparable with any other country in the world. Inordinately high rainfall and strong prevailing winds are New Zealand's dominant climatic features. Annual rainfall up to 15000 mm, steep slopes, small catchments and earthquakes are the perfect basis for a high rate of natural and accelerated erosion. Due to the multifacted landscape of New Zealand its location as island between the Pacific and the Tasmanian Sea there is a high gradient in precipitation between North and South Island as well as between West and East Coast. The objective of this study was to determine the R-factor for the different climatic regions in New Zealand, in order to create a rainfall erosivity map. We used rainfall data (breakpoint data in 10-min intervals) from 34 gauging stations for the calcuation of the rainfall erosivity. 15 stations were located on the North Island and 19 stations on the South Island. From these stations, a total of 397 station years with 12710 rainstorms were analyzed. The kinetic energy for each rainfall event was calculated based on the equation by Brown and Foster (1987), using the breakpoint precipitation data for each storm. On average, a mean annual precipitation of 1357 mm was obtained from the 15 observed stations on the North Island. Rainfall distribution throughout the year is relatively even with 22-24% of annual rainfall occurring in spring , fall and winter and 31% in summer. On the South Island

  20. Evaluation of Satellite Rainfall Products over NASA's Iowa Flood Studies (IFloodS) Domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    ElSaadani, Mohamed; Quintero, Felipe; Krajewski, Witold F.; Goska, Radoslaw; Seo, Bongchul

    2014-05-01

    Iowa Flood Studies (IFloodS) is a NASA Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission to provide better understanding of the strengths and limitations of satellite products in the context of hydrologic applications. IFloodS took place in the central to north eastern part of Iowa in Midwestern United States during the months of April-June, 2013. Quantifying the physical characteristics, space/time variability and assessing satellite rainfall retrieval uncertainties at instantaneous to daily time scales are of the main objectives of IFloodS field experiment beside assessing hydrologic predictive skills as a function of space/time scales and discerning the relative roles of rainfall quantities in flood genesis. The errors of rainfall estimation of three satellite rainfall products (TRMM's TMPA 3B42 V7, CPC's CMORPH and CHRS at UCI's PERSIANN) have been characterized in space and time using NCEP Stage IV radar-rainfall product as a benchmark for comparison. The satellite rainfall products used in this study represent 3 hourly, quarter degree, rainfall accumulation. The benchmark rainfall accumulation has an hourly, four kilometers, resolutions in time and space respectively. We also investigate the adequacy of satellite rainfall products as inputs for hydrological modeling. To this end, these products were used as forcing for the Iowa Flood Center (IFC) hydrological model and produced discharge simulations in a high-resolution drainage network. The IFC hydrological model has been validated using radar rainfall product and thus, the hydrological outputs becomes the reference of comparison for the other rainfall products. We evaluated the hydrological performance of the rainfall products at different spatial scales, ranging from 2 to 14,000 square miles using stream discharge information from USGS gauges network. We discuss the adequacy of the rainfall products for flood forecasting at different spatial scales.

  1. 30 years after

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Unterrainer, Walter

    2016-01-01

    different housing sizes. A set of specified facade-elements provided individuality and adaptability. The smaller houses could 'grow' over time, reusing these elements in a new assemblage - an early life cycle approach. 'Ecological buildings' of the 80's had a stronger focus on 'natural' materials...

  2. Analyzing the Implications of Climate Data on the Rainfall Frequency Spectrum: Case Study of Knoxville, Tennessee and Surrounding Region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sylvester, Linda M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Omitaomu, Olufemi A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Parish, Esther S. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2016-09-01

    Modeled daily precipitation values are used to determine changes in percentile rainfall event depths, for planning and mitigation of stormwater runoff, over past (1980-2005) and future (2025-2050) periods for Knoxville, Tennessee and the surrounding area.

  3. Erosivity of rainfall in Lages, Santa Catarina, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jefferson Schick

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The erosive capacity of rainfall can be expressed by an index and knowing it allows recommendation of soil management and conservation practices to reduce water erosion. The objective of this study was to calculate various indices of rainfall erosivity in Lages, Santa Catarina, Brazil, identify the best one, and discover its temporal distribution. The study was conducted at the Center of Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences, Lages, Santa Catarina, using daily rainfall charts from 1989 to 2012. Using the computer program Chuveros , 107 erosivity indices were obtained, which were based on maximum intensity in 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45, 50, 55, 60, 70, 80, 90, 100, 110, 120, 135, 150, 165, 180, 210, and 240 min of duration and on the combination of these intensities with the kinetic energy obtained by the equations of Brown & Foster, Wagner & Massambani, and Wischmeier & Smith. The indices of the time period from 1993 to 2012 were correlated with the respective soil losses from the standard plot of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE in order to select the erosivity index for the region. Erosive rainfall accounted for 83 % of the mean annual total volume of 1,533 mm. The erosivity index (R factor of rainfall recommended for Lages is the EI30, whose mean annual value is 5,033 MJ mm ha-1 h-1, and of this value, 66 % occurs from September to February. Mean annual erosivity has a return period estimated at two years with a 50 % probability of occurrence.

  4. Changes in greening in the high Arctic: insights from a 30 year AVHRR max NDVI dataset for Svalbard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vickers, Hannah; Arild Høgda, Kjell; Solbø, Stian; Rune Karlsen, Stein; Tømmervik, Hans; Aanes, Ronny; Hansen, Brage B.

    2016-10-01

    Satellite-aided studies of vegetation cover, biomass and productivity are becoming increasingly important for monitoring the effects of a changing climate on the biosphere. With their large spatial coverage and good temporal resolution, space-borne instruments are ideal to observe remote areas over extended time periods. However, long time series datasets with global coverage have in many cases too low spatial resolution for sparsely vegetated high latitude areas. This study has made use of a newly developed 30 year 1 km spatial resolution dataset from 1986 to 2015, provided by the NOAA AVHRR series of satellites, in order to calculate the annual maximum NDVI over parts of Svalbard (78°N). This parameter is indicative of vegetation productivity and has therefore enabled us to study long-term changes in greening within the Inner Fjord Zone on Svalbard. In addition, local meteorological data are available to link maximum NDVI values to the temporal behavior of the mean growing season (summer) temperature for the study area. Over the 30 year period, we find positive trends in both maximum NDVI (average increase of 29%) and mean summer temperature (59%), which were significantly positively correlated with each other. This suggests a temporal greening trend mediated by summer warming. However, as also recently reported for lower latitudes, the strength of the year-to-year correlation between maximum NDVI and mean summer temperature decreased, suggesting that the response of vegetation to summer warming has not remained the same over the entire study period.

  5. Rainfall variability modelling in Rwanda

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nduwayezu, E.; Kanevski, M.; Jaboyedoff, M.

    2012-04-01

    Support to climate change adaptation is a priority in many International Organisations meetings. But is the international approach for adaptation appropriate with field reality in developing countries? In Rwanda, the main problems will be heavy rain and/or long dry season. Four rainfall seasons have been identified, corresponding to the four thermal Earth ones in the south hemisphere: the normal season (summer), the rainy season (autumn), the dry season (winter) and the normo-rainy season (spring). The spatial rainfall decreasing from West to East, especially in October (spring) and February (summer) suggests an «Atlantic monsoon influence» while the homogeneous spatial rainfall distribution suggests an «Inter-tropical front » mechanism. The torrential rainfall that occurs every year in Rwanda disturbs the circulation for many days, damages the houses and, more seriously, causes heavy losses of people. All districts are affected by bad weather (heavy rain) but the costs of such events are the highest in mountains districts. The objective of the current research is to proceed to an evaluation of the potential rainfall risk by applying advanced geospatial modelling tools in Rwanda: geostatistical predictions and simulations, machine learning algorithm (different types of neural networks) and GIS. The research will include rainfalls variability mapping and probabilistic analyses of extreme events.

  6. Quantifying uncertainty in observational rainfall datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lennard, Chris; Dosio, Alessandro; Nikulin, Grigory; Pinto, Izidine; Seid, Hussen

    2015-04-01

    rainfall datasets available over Africa on monthly, daily and sub-daily time scales as appropriate to quantify spatial and temporal differences between the datasets. We find regional wet and dry biases between datasets (using the ensemble mean as a reference) with generally larger biases in reanalysis products. Rainfall intensity is poorly represented in some datasets which demonstrates some datasets should not be used for rainfall intensity analyses. Using 10 CORDEX models we show in east Africa that the spread between observed datasets is often similar to the spread between models. We recommend that specific observational rainfall datasets datasets be used for specific investigations and also that where many datasets are applicable to an investigation, a probabilistic view be adopted for rainfall studies over Africa. Endris, H. S., P. Omondi, S. Jain, C. Lennard, B. Hewitson, L. Chang'a, J. L. Awange, A. Dosio, P. Ketiem, G. Nikulin, H-J. Panitz, M. Büchner, F. Stordal, and L. Tazalika (2013) Assessment of the Performance of CORDEX Regional Climate Models in Simulating East African Rainfall. J. Climate, 26, 8453-8475. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00708.1 Gbobaniyi, E., A. Sarr, M. B. Sylla, I. Diallo, C. Lennard, A. Dosio, A. Dhie ?diou, A. Kamga, N. A. B. Klutse, B. Hewitson, and B. Lamptey (2013) Climatology, annual cycle and interannual variability of precipitation and temperature in CORDEX simulations over West Africa. Int. J. Climatol., DOI: 10.1002/joc.3834 Hernández-Díaz, L., R. Laprise, L. Sushama, A. Martynov, K. Winger, and B. Dugas (2013) Climate simulation over CORDEX Africa domain using the fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5). Clim. Dyn. 40, 1415-1433. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1387-z Kalognomou, E., C. Lennard, M. Shongwe, I. Pinto, A. Favre, M. Kent, B. Hewitson, A. Dosio, G. Nikulin, H. Panitz, and M. Büchner (2013) A diagnostic evaluation of precipitation in CORDEX models over southern Africa. Journal of Climate, 26, 9477-9506. DOI:10

  7. Potential of deterministic and geostatistical rainfall interpolation under high rainfall variability and dry spells: case of Kenya's Central Highlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kisaka, M. Oscar; Mucheru-Muna, M.; Ngetich, F. K.; Mugwe, J.; Mugendi, D.; Mairura, F.; Shisanya, C.; Makokha, G. L.

    2016-04-01

    Drier parts of Kenya's Central Highlands endure persistent crop failure and declining agricultural productivity. These have, in part, attributed to high temperatures, prolonged dry spells and erratic rainfall. Understanding spatial-temporal variability of climatic indices such as rainfall at seasonal level is critical for optimal rain-fed agricultural productivity and natural resource management in the study area. However, the predominant setbacks in analysing hydro-meteorological events are occasioned by either lack, inadequate, or inconsistent meteorological data. Like in most other places, the sole sources of climatic data in the study region are scarce and only limited to single stations, yet with persistent missing/unrecorded data making their utilization a challenge. This study examined seasonal anomalies and variability in rainfall, drought occurrence and the efficacy of interpolation techniques in the drier regions of eastern Kenyan. Rainfall data from five stations (Machang'a, Kiritiri, Kiambere and Kindaruma and Embu) were sourced from both the Kenya Meteorology Department and on-site primary recording. Owing to some experimental work ongoing, automated recording for primary dailies in Machang'a have been ongoing since the year 2000 to date; thus, Machang'a was treated as reference (for period of record) station for selection of other stations in the region. The other stations had data sets of over 15 years with missing data of less than 10 % as required by the world meteorological organization whose quality check is subject to the Centre for Climate Systems Modeling (C2SM) through MeteoSwiss and EMPA bodies. The dailies were also subjected to homogeneity testing to evaluate whether they came from the same population. Rainfall anomaly index, coefficients of variance and probability were utilized in the analyses of rainfall variability. Spline, kriging and inverse distance weighting interpolation techniques were assessed using daily rainfall data and

  8. MRO SOW Daily Script

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Forest E.; Khanampornpan, Teerapat; Gladden, Roy E.

    2008-01-01

    The MRO SOW daily script (wherein "MRO" signifies "Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter" and "SOW" signifies "sequence systems engineer of the week") is a computer program that automates portions of the MRO daily SOW procedure, which includes checking file-system sizes and automated sequence processor (ASP) log files. The MRO SOW daily script effects clear reporting of (1) the status of, and requirements imposed on, the file system and (2) the ASP log files.

  9. Rain Check Application: Mobile tool to monitor rainfall in remote parts of Haiti

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, X.; Baird, J.; Chiu, M. T.; Morelli, R.; de Lanerolle, T. R.; Gourley, J. R.

    2011-12-01

    Rainfall observations performed uniformly and continuously over a period of time are valuable inputs in developing climate models and predicting events such as floods and droughts. Rain-Check is a mobile application developed in Google App Inventor Platform, for android based smart phones, to allow field researchers to monitor various rain gauges distributed though out remote regions of Haiti and send daily readings via SMS messages for further analysis and long term trending. Rainfall rate and quantity interact with many other factors to influence erosion, vegetative cover, groundwater recharge, stream water chemistry and runoff into streams impacting agriculture and livestock. Rainfall observation from various sites is especially significant in Haiti with over 80% of the country is mountainous terrain. Data sets from global models and limited number of ground stations do not capture the fine-scale rainfall patterns necessary to describe local climate. Placement and reading of rain gauges are critical to accurate measurement of rainfall.

  10. ESTIMATION AND MAPPING OF EXTREME RAINFALL IN THE CATCHMENT AREA OF BATNA (ALGERIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guellouh SAMI

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Statistical estimation of rainfall associated with extreme events is of major interest for hydrologists in terms of risk prevention. Comprehending the spatial distribution of extreme rainfalls that cover the entire catchment area, the impluvium, of Batna, requires as a first step a frequency analysis of annual maximum daily rainfall time series with the application of empirical distributions, namely the GEV distribution, the Gumbel distribution and the log-normal distribution. This has allowed us to estimate the quantiles of extreme rainfall with return periods of 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years for ten rainfall stations. Subsequently, this has allowed us to map the quantiles matching the centennial return period using three types of interpolations.

  11. Regime shifts in annual maximum rainfall across Australia - implications for intensity-frequency-duration (IFD) relationships

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdon-Kidd, D. C.; Kiem, A. S.

    2015-12-01

    Rainfall intensity-frequency-duration (IFD) relationships are commonly required for the design and planning of water supply and management systems around the world. Currently, IFD information is based on the "stationary climate assumption" that weather at any point in time will vary randomly and that the underlying climate statistics (including both averages and extremes) will remain constant irrespective of the period of record. However, the validity of this assumption has been questioned over the last 15 years, particularly in Australia, following an improved understanding of the significant impact of climate variability and change occurring on interannual to multidecadal timescales. This paper provides evidence of regime shifts in annual maximum rainfall time series (between 1913-2010) using 96 daily rainfall stations and 66 sub-daily rainfall stations across Australia. Furthermore, the effect of these regime shifts on the resulting IFD estimates are explored for three long-term (1913-2010) sub-daily rainfall records (Brisbane, Sydney, and Melbourne) utilizing insights into multidecadal climate variability. It is demonstrated that IFD relationships may under- or over-estimate the design rainfall depending on the length and time period spanned by the rainfall data used to develop the IFD information. It is recommended that regime shifts in annual maximum rainfall be explicitly considered and appropriately treated in the ongoing revisions of the Engineers Australia guide to estimating and utilizing IFD information, Australian Rainfall and Runoff (ARR), and that clear guidance needs to be provided on how to deal with the issue of regime shifts in extreme events (irrespective of whether this is due to natural or anthropogenic climate change). The findings of our study also have important implications for other regions of the world that exhibit considerable hydroclimatic variability and where IFD information is based on relatively short data sets.

  12. The Effect of Rainfall Measurement Technique and Its Spatiotemporal Resolution on Discharge Predictions in the Netherlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uijlenhoet, R.; Brauer, C.; Overeem, A.; Sassi, M.; Rios Gaona, M. F.

    2014-12-01

    Several rainfall measurement techniques are available for hydrological applications, each with its own spatial and temporal resolution. We investigated the effect of these spatiotemporal resolutions on discharge simulations in lowland catchments by forcing a novel rainfall-runoff model (WALRUS) with rainfall data from gauges, radars and microwave links. The hydrological model used for this analysis is the recently developed Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS). WALRUS is a rainfall-runoff model accounting for hydrological processes relevant to areas with shallow groundwater (e.g. groundwater-surface water feedback). Here, we used WALRUS for case studies in a freely draining lowland catchment and a polder with controlled water levels. We used rain gauge networks with automatic (hourly resolution but low spatial density) and manual gauges (high spatial density but daily resolution). Operational (real-time) and climatological (gauge-adjusted) C-band radar products and country-wide rainfall maps derived from microwave link data from a cellular telecommunication network were also used. Discharges simulated with these different inputs were compared to observations. We also investigated the effect of spatiotemporal resolution with a high-resolution X-band radar data set for catchments with different sizes. Uncertainty in rainfall forcing is a major source of uncertainty in discharge predictions, both with lumped and with distributed models. For lumped rainfall-runoff models, the main source of input uncertainty is associated with the way in which (effective) catchment-average rainfall is estimated. When catchments are divided into sub-catchments, rainfall spatial variability can become more important, especially during convective rainfall events, leading to spatially varying catchment wetness and spatially varying contribution of quick flow routes. Improving rainfall measurements and their spatiotemporal resolution can improve the performance of rainfall

  13. Cascade-based disaggregation of continuous rainfall time series: the influence of climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Güntner

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall data of high temporal resolution are required in a multitude of hydrological applications. In the present paper, a temporal rainfall disaggregation model is applied to convert daily time series into an hourly resolution. The model is based on the principles of random multiplicative cascade processes. Its parameters are dependent on (1 the volume and (2 the position in the rainfall sequence of the time interval with rainfall to be disaggregated. The aim is to compare parameters and performance of the model between two contrasting climates with different rainfall generating mechanisms, a semi-arid tropical (Brazil and a temperate (United Kingdom climate. In the range of time scales studied, the scale-invariant assumptions of the model are approximately equally well fulfilled for both climates. The model parameters differ distinctly between climates, reflecting the dominance of convective processes in the Brazilian rainfall and of advective processes associated with frontal passages in the British rainfall. In the British case, the parameters exhibit a slight seasonal variation consistent with the higher frequency of convection during summer. When applied for disaggregation, the model reproduces a range of hourly rainfall characteristics with a high accuracy in both climates. However, the overall model performance is somewhat better for the semi-arid tropical rainfall. In particular, extreme rainfall in the UK is overestimated whereas extreme rainfall in Brazil is well reproduced. Transferability of parameters in time is associated with larger uncertainty in the semi-arid climate due to its higher interannual variability and lower percentage of rainy intervals. For parameter transferability in space, no restrictions are found between the Brazilian stations whereas in the UK regional differences are more pronounced. The overall high accuracy of disaggregated data supports the potential usefulness of the model in hydrological applications

  14. Rainfall Characteristics and Regionalization in Peninsular Malaysia Based on a High Resolution Gridded Data Set

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chee Loong Wong

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Daily gridded rainfall data over Peninsular Malaysia are delineated using an objective clustering algorithm, with the objective of classifying rainfall grids into groups of homogeneous regions based on the similarity of the rainfall annual cycles. It has been demonstrated that Peninsular Malaysia can be statistically delineated into eight distinct rainfall regions. This delineation is closely associated with the topographic and geographic characteristics. The variation of rainfall over the Peninsula is generally characterized by bimodal variations with two peaks, i.e., a primary peak occurring during the autumn transitional period and a secondary peak during the spring transitional period. The east coast zones, however, showed a single peak during the northeast monsoon (NEM. The influence of NEM is stronger compared to the southwest monsoon (SWM. Significantly increasing rainfall trends at 95% confidence level are not observed in all regions during the NEM, with exception of northwest zone (R1 and coastal band of west coast interior region (R3. During SWM, most areas have become drier over the last three decades. The study identifies higher variation of mean monthly rainfall over the east coast regions, but spatially, the rainfall is uniformly distributed. For the southwestern coast and west coast regions, a larger range of coefficients of variation is mostly obtained during the NEM, and to a smaller extent during the SWM. The inland region received least rainfall in February, but showed the largest spatial variation. The relationship between rainfall and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO was examined based on the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI. Although the concurrent relationships between rainfall in the different regions and ENSO are generally weak with negative correlations, the rainfall shows stronger positive correlation with preceding ENSO signals with a time lag of four to eight months.

  15. Long term country-wide rainfall monitoring employing cellular communication networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overeem, Aart; Leijnse, Hidde; Uijlenhoet, Remko

    2013-04-01

    Accurate rainfall observations with high spatial and temporal resolutions are needed for hydrological applications, agriculture, meteorology, and climate monitoring. However, the majority of the land surface of the earth lacks accurate rainfall information and the number of rain gauges is even severely declining in Europe, South-America, and Africa. This calls for alternative sources of rainfall information. Various studies have shown that microwave links from operational cellular telecommunication networks may be employed for rainfall monitoring. Such networks cover 20% of the land surface of the earth and have a high density, especially in urban areas. The basic principle of rainfall monitoring using microwave links is as follows. Rainfall attenuates the electromagnetic signals transmitted from one telephone tower to another. By measuring the received power at one end of a microwave link as a function of time, the path-integrated attenuation due to rainfall can be calculated. Previous studies have shown that average rainfall intensities over the length of a link can be derived from the path-integrated attenuation. This is particularly interesting for those countries where few surface rainfall observations are available. Here we present preliminary results of long term country-wide rainfall monitoring employing cellular communication networks. A dataset from a commercial microwave link network over the Netherlands is analyzed, containing data from an unprecedented number of links (~ 2000) covering the land surface of the Netherlands (35500 square kilometres). This dataset spans from January 2011 through October 2012. Daily rainfall maps (1 km spatial resolution) are derived from the microwave link data and compared to maps from a gauge-adjusted radar dataset. The performance of the rainfall retrieval algorithm will be investigated, particularly a possible seasonal dependence.

  16. Effect size and power in assessing moderating effects of categorical variables using multiple regression: a 30-year review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguinis, Herman; Beaty, James C; Boik, Robert J; Pierce, Charles A

    2005-01-01

    The authors conducted a 30-year review (1969-1998) of the size of moderating effects of categorical variables as assessed using multiple regression. The median observed effect size (f(2)) is only .002, but 72% of the moderator tests reviewed had power of .80 or greater to detect a targeted effect conventionally defined as small. Results suggest the need to minimize the influence of artifacts that produce a downward bias in the observed effect size and put into question the use of conventional definitions of moderating effect sizes. As long as an effect has a meaningful impact, the authors advise researchers to conduct a power analysis and plan future research designs on the basis of smaller and more realistic targeted effect sizes.

  17. Unilateral Optic Neuritis: A Rare Complication after Measles-Mumps-Rubella Vaccination in a 30-Year-Old Woman

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiara De Giacinto

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. To report a case of unilateral optic neuritis following Measles-Mumps-Rubella (MMR vaccination. Methods. A 30-year-old female developed unilateral optic neuritis five days after a Measles-Mumps-Rubella (MMR booster vaccination. The patient displayed unilateral involvement, with severe visual loss. However, visual acuity improved significantly after four days of intravenous steroid therapy with 500 mg/day of methylprednisolone. Conclusions. Optic neuritis is one of the rare complications associated with the mumps, measles, and rubella vaccine. It may be a toxic reaction to the nonviral component of the vaccine, but the exact etiology is unknown. Postvaccination neuritis is generally bilateral and usually affects children. In adults, unilateral optic neuritis is usually correlated with multiple sclerosis (MS.

  18. Mucinous carcinoma of breast in a 30-year-old female: A rare case report and discussion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Banyameen Mohamad Iqbal

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Mucinous carcinoma (MC (colloid carcinoma is a particular, rare type of breast carcinoma. It is characterized by the presence of extracellular mucin. MC of the breast generally presents as a lobulated, moderately well-circumscribed mass on mammography, sonography, and magnetic resonance imaging. It has a favorable prognosis due to the low incidence of axillary lymph node metastasis and poor adherence to bottom fascia and poor infiltration of overlying skin. It has high incidence of estrogen receptor and progesterone receptor positivity. The incidence of MC in females under 35 years of age is only 1%. Here, we report a case of MC of right breast in a 30-year-old female.

  19. Risk factors for ischaemic heart disease mortality among men with different occupational physical demands. A 30-year prospective cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holtermann, Andreas; Mortensen, Ole Steen; Søgaard, Karen;

    2012-01-01

    Prospective 30-year follow-up. Setting The Copenhagen Male Study. Participants 5249 gainfully employed men aged 40-59 years; 311 men with cardiovascular disease/diabetes were excluded. Primary and secondary outcome measures IHD and all-cause mortality. Results 579 men (11.8%) died due to IHD and 2628 (53...... physical work demands (HR: 0.48, 95% CI 0.24 to 0.96), a moderate/high level of leisure-time physical activity was associated with reduced risk of IHD mortality only among men with moderate and high physical work demands. High systolic blood pressure and smoking were risk factors in all groups. Similar......, but less pronounced differences in risk factors for all-cause mortality between groups were found. Conclusions The risk factors for IHD and all-cause mortality, low physical fitness and low leisure-time physical activity are not identical for men with different physical work demands. Preventive initiatives...

  20. [Antiretroviral therapy in HIV-infected children and adolescents: lessons learned in 30 years of the epidemic].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bazin, Gabriela Ricordi; Gaspar, Mariza Curto Saavedra; Silva, Nicole Carvalho Xavier Micheloni da; Mendes, Carolina da Costa; Oliveira, Cora Pichler de; Bastos, Leonardo Soares; Cardoso, Claudete Aparecida Araújo

    2014-04-01

    This study aims to evaluate antiretroviral therapy in children and adolescents with AIDS. We selected 247 abstracts published from 1983 to 2013, collected from the PubMed and LILACS databases. Sixty-nine articles were selected. Attention to research in the pediatric age bracket in 30 years of the epidemic is explained by the age group's immunological characteristics, since AIDS progresses faster in children than in adults. Recent studies focus on the initiation of highly active antiretroviral therapy before the onset of symptoms. Early introduction of combination antiretroviral therapy has been implemented effectively and safely in populations with limited resources, leading to significantly improved survival. The current challenge is to manage a chronic disease with acute complications. New studies should focus on population specificities and identify the individual needs of pediatric patients.

  1. Biodiversity conservation in Swedish forests: ways forward for a 30-year-old multi-scaled approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gustafsson, Lena; Perhans, Karin

    2010-12-01

    A multi-scaled model for biodiversity conservation in forests was introduced in Sweden 30 years ago, which makes it a pioneer example of an integrated ecosystem approach. Trees are set aside for biodiversity purposes at multiple scale levels varying from individual trees to areas of thousands of hectares, with landowner responsibility at the lowest level and with increasing state involvement at higher levels. Ecological theory supports the multi-scaled approach, and retention efforts at every harvest occasion stimulate landowners' interest in conservation. We argue that the model has large advantages but that in a future with intensified forestry and global warming, development based on more progressive thinking is necessary to maintain and increase biodiversity. Suggestions for the future include joint planning for several forest owners, consideration of cost-effectiveness, accepting opportunistic work models, adjusting retention levels to stand and landscape composition, introduction of temporary reserves, creation of "receiver habitats" for species escaping climate change, and protection of young forests.

  2. Ciguatera incidence in the US Virgin Islands has not increased over a 30-year time period despite rising seawater temperatures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radke, Elizabeth G; Grattan, Lynn M; Cook, Robert L; Smith, Tyler B; Anderson, Donald M; Morris, J Glenn

    2013-05-01

    Ciguatera fish poisoning is the most common marine food poisoning worldwide. It has been hypothesized that increasing seawater temperature will result in increasing ciguatera incidence. In St. Thomas, US Virgin Islands, we performed an island-wide telephone survey (N = 807) and a medical record review of diagnosed ciguatera cases at the emergency department of the sole hospital and compared these data with comparable data sources collected in 1980. Annual incidence from both recent data sources remained high (12 per 1,000 among adults in the telephone survey). However, the combined data sources suggest that incidence has declined by 20% or more or remained stable over 30 years, whereas seawater temperatures were increasing. Illness was associated with lower education levels, higher levels of fish consumption, and having previous episodes of ciguatera; population shifts from 1980 to 2010 in these factors could explain an incidence decline of approximately 3 per 1,000, obscuring effects from rising seawater temperature.

  3. Regionalized rainfall-runoff model to estimate low flow indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Florine; Folton, Nathalie; Oudin, Ludovic

    2016-04-01

    Estimating low flow indices is of paramount importance to manage water resources and risk assessments. These indices are derived from river discharges which are measured at gauged stations. However, the lack of observations at ungauged sites bring the necessity of developing methods to estimate these low flow indices from observed discharges in neighboring catchments and from catchment characteristics. Different estimation methods exist. Regression or geostatistical methods performed on the low flow indices are the most common types of methods. Another less common method consists in regionalizing rainfall-runoff model parameters, from catchment characteristics or by spatial proximity, to estimate low flow indices from simulated hydrographs. Irstea developed GR2M-LoiEau, a conceptual monthly rainfall-runoff model, combined with a regionalized model of snow storage and melt. GR2M-LoiEau relies on only two parameters, which are regionalized and mapped throughout France. This model allows to cartography monthly reference low flow indices. The inputs data come from SAFRAN, the distributed mesoscale atmospheric analysis system, which provides daily solid and liquid precipitation and temperature data from everywhere in the French territory. To exploit fully these data and to estimate daily low flow indices, a new version of GR-LoiEau has been developed at a daily time step. The aim of this work is to develop and regionalize a GR-LoiEau model that can provide any daily, monthly or annual estimations of low flow indices, yet keeping only a few parameters, which is a major advantage to regionalize them. This work includes two parts. On the one hand, a daily conceptual rainfall-runoff model is developed with only three parameters in order to simulate daily and monthly low flow indices, mean annual runoff and seasonality. On the other hand, different regionalization methods, based on spatial proximity and similarity, are tested to estimate the model parameters and to simulate

  4. Rainfall is a risk factor for sporadic cases of Legionella pneumophila pneumonia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolina Garcia-Vidal

    Full Text Available It is not known whether rainfall increases the risk of sporadic cases of Legionella pneumonia. We sought to test this hypothesis in a prospective observational cohort study of non-immunosuppressed adults hospitalized for community-acquired pneumonia (1995-2011. Cases with Legionella pneumonia were compared with those with non-Legionella pneumonia. Using daily rainfall data obtained from the regional meteorological service we examined patterns of rainfall over the days prior to admission in each study group. Of 4168 patients, 231 (5.5% had Legionella pneumonia. The diagnosis was based on one or more of the following: sputum (41 cases, antigenuria (206 and serology (98. Daily rainfall average was 0.556 liters/m(2 in the Legionella pneumonia group vs. 0.328 liters/m(2 for non-Legionella pneumonia cases (p = 0.04. A ROC curve was plotted to compare the incidence of Legionella pneumonia and the weighted median rainfall. The cut-off point was 0.42 (AUC 0.54. Patients who were admitted to hospital with a prior weighted median rainfall higher than 0.42 were more likely to have Legionella pneumonia (OR 1.35; 95% CI 1.02-1.78; p = .03. Spearman Rho correlations revealed a relationship between Legionella pneumonia and rainfall average during each two-week reporting period (0.14; p = 0.003. No relationship was found between rainfall average and non-Legionella pneumonia cases (-0.06; p = 0.24. As a conclusion, rainfall is a significant risk factor for sporadic Legionella pneumonia. Physicians should carefully consider Legionella pneumonia when selecting diagnostic tests and antimicrobial therapy for patients presenting with CAP after periods of rainfall.

  5. Long term variations of extreme rainfall in Denmark and southern Sweden

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan;

    2015-01-01

    A high number of studies have detected changes in the observed heavy rainfall in Northern and Central Europe, all adding to the debate on anthropogenic climate change and its potential impact on rainfall extremes. However, it is equally relevant to understand natural variations on which...... the anthropogenic changes are imposed. This study identifies multi-decadal variations in daily rainfall extremes from Denmark and southern Sweden, with a recurrence level relevant for flood hazard analysis. Based on smoothed series it is concluded that the frequency of the extreme events shows both a general...

  6. Rainfall Variability across the Agneby Watershed at the Agboville Outlet in Côte d’Ivoire, West Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akissi Bienve Pélagie Kouakou

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes, at local and regional scales, the rainfall variability across the Agneby watershed at the Agboville outlet over the period 1950–2013. Daily rainfall data from 14 rain gauges are used. The methods used are based, firstly, on the rainfall index which aims to characterize the inter-annual and decadal variability of rainfall and, secondly, on the moving average to determine the dynamics of the mean seasonal cycle of the precipitations. Furthermore, the Pettitt test and the Hubert segmentation are applied to detect change-point in the rainfall series. At the basin scale, analysis of rainfall signals composites has shown that the rainfall deficit was more pronounced after the leap of monsoon. Dry years were characterized by an early monsoon demise which is remarkable after 1968. Moreover, the years after 1969 presented a shift of the peaks in precipitation for about 12 days. These peaks were reached early. The rainfall signal showed that the rainfall deficit for the period after 1968, relatively to the period before, was 10% in June against 36% in October for the average rainfall in the Agneby basin. At the local scale, the deficit of the peaks depends on the location. These rainfall deficits were 23% against 36.3% in June for the Agboville and Bongouanou rain gauges, respectively.

  7. Exploring the relationship between gully erosion and rainfall erosivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campo, Miguel; Casalí, Javier; Giménez, Rafael

    2016-04-01

    Rainfall erosivity plays and important role in gully erosion. However, there are few studies that explore this relationship. The main purpose of this work is to analyse the link between observed gully erosion rates and rainfall erosivity. However, in order to get a suitable and comparable set of daily rainfall erosivity data, we firstly evaluate the performance of several daily rainfall erosivity models to estimate the daily accumulated RUSLE EI30 index. One 300 ha watershed (El Cantalar) located in Navarre (Spain) was selected to carry out field studies. A meteorological station located 10 km appart from the experimental site provided daily precipitation records since 1930 to 2009 and also 10min records since 1991 to 2009. In this watershed a total of 35 gully headcuts developed in cohesive soil were monitored. Aerial photographic stereo-pairs covering the study area were used for the survey. These were taken in five different years and at different spatial scales each time: 1956 (1: 34,000), 1967 (1:17,500), 1982 (1:13,500), 2003 (1:20,000) and 2006 (1:2000). Manual restitution of photographs was carried out. 1m resolution DEMs were obtained by triangular interpolation (Triangular Irregular Network) and then used to characterize gully headcuts. Moreover, from the aerial photos and the DEMs, ortho-photographs with a final resolution of 0.40 m were created. The geocoding of the scenes had a Root Mean Square error of less than 0.5 m both in planimetry and altimetry. Furthermore, using the DEMs and the ortho-photographs, volumetric headcut retreat rates for each period were calculated as the product of the lineal retreat and a representative section of the headcut. Daily accumulated RUSLE EI30 index was calculated in a conventional way from records of precipitation every 10 minutes for the period 1991-2009; these results were used as reference data. In addition, for the same period, this index was estimated with daily precipitation records through several models

  8. Assessing the relative effectiveness of statistical downscaling and distribution mapping in reproducing rainfall statistics based on climate model results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langousis, Andreas; Mamalakis, Antonios; Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino

    2016-01-01

    To improve the level skill of climate models (CMs) in reproducing the statistics of daily rainfall at a basin level, two types of statistical approaches have been suggested. One is statistical correction of CM rainfall outputs based on historical series of precipitation. The other, usually referred to as statistical rainfall downscaling, is the use of stochastic models to conditionally simulate rainfall series, based on large-scale atmospheric forcing from CMs. While promising, the latter approach attracted reduced attention in recent years, since the developed downscaling schemes involved complex weather identification procedures, while demonstrating limited success in reproducing several statistical features of rainfall. In a recent effort, Langousis and Kaleris () developed a statistical framework for simulation of daily rainfall intensities conditional on upper-air variables, which is simpler to implement and more accurately reproduces several statistical properties of actual rainfall records. Here we study the relative performance of: (a) direct statistical correction of CM rainfall outputs using nonparametric distribution mapping, and (b) the statistical downscaling scheme of Langousis and Kaleris (), in reproducing the historical rainfall statistics, including rainfall extremes, at a regional level. This is done for an intermediate-sized catchment in Italy, i.e., the Flumendosa catchment, using rainfall and atmospheric data from four CMs of the ENSEMBLES project. The obtained results are promising, since the proposed downscaling scheme is more accurate and robust in reproducing a number of historical rainfall statistics, independent of the CM used and the characteristics of the calibration period. This is particularly the case for yearly rainfall maxima.

  9. Calibrating max-stable models of rainfall extremes at multiple timescales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le, Phuong Dong; Leonard, Michael; Westra, Seth

    2016-04-01

    Understanding the probabilistic behaviour of extreme rainfall events is critical for estimating the risk of flooding, leading to better design of infrastructure and management of flood events. The majority of engineering design is based on estimates of the probability of extreme rainfall known as the Intensity-Frequency-Duration relationship (IDF). IDF curves are estimated at each rain gauge and are subsequently interpolated for application to ungauged locations. The pointwise nature of IDF estimates leads to difficulties, especially at sub-daily timescales, due to the sparseness of sub-daily extreme rainfall data. As a result there is greater uncertainty and potential for bias when estimating sub-daily extreme rainfall. By using a model that incorporates dependence between spatial extremes as well as across multiple timescales, there is considerable potential to improve estimates of extreme rainfall. The aim of this research is to develop max-stable models of extreme rainfall that have both spatial dependence as well as dependence across timescales. Max-stable processes are a direct extension of the univariate generalized extreme value (GEV) model into the spatial domain. Max-stable processes provide a general framework for modelling multivariate extremes with spatial dependence for just a single duration extreme rainfall. To achieve dependence across multiple timescales, Koutsoyiannis et al. (1998) proposed a mathematical framework which expresses the parameters as a function of timescale. This parameterization is important because it allows data to be incorporated from daily rainfall stations to improve estimates at sub-daily timescales. The approach therefore addresses the issue of sparseness for sub-daily stations by exploiting the denser network of daily stations. A case study in the Hawkesbury-Nepean catchment near Sydney is used, having 82 daily gauges (>50 years) and 13 sub-daily gauges (>24 years) over a region of 300 km x 300 km area. The max

  10. Relationships between rainfall and Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) occurrences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mailhot, A.; Talbot, G.; Lavallée, B.

    2015-04-01

    Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) has been recognized as a major environmental issue in many countries. In Canada, the proposed reinforcement of the CSO frequency regulations will result in new constraints on municipal development. Municipalities will have to demonstrate that new developments do not increase CSO frequency above a reference level based on historical CSO records. Governmental agencies will also have to define a framework to assess the impact of new developments on CSO frequency and the efficiency of the various proposed measures to maintain CSO frequency at its historic level. In such a context, it is important to correctly assess the average number of days with CSO and to define relationships between CSO frequency and rainfall characteristics. This paper investigates such relationships using available CSO and rainfall datasets for Quebec. CSO records for 4285 overflow structures (OS) were analyzed. A simple model based on rainfall thresholds was developed to forecast the occurrence of CSO on a given day based on daily rainfall values. The estimated probability of days with CSO have been used to estimate the rainfall threshold value at each OS by imposing that the probability of exceeding this rainfall value for a given day be equal to the estimated probability of days with CSO. The forecast skill of this model was assessed for 3437 OS using contingency tables. The statistical significance of the forecast skill could be assessed for 64.2% of these OS. The threshold model has demonstrated significant forecast skill for 91.3% of these OS confirming that for most OS a simple threshold model can be used to assess the occurrence of CSO.

  11. Rainfall, runoff and sediment transport in a Mediterranean mountainous catchment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuset, J; Vericat, D; Batalla, R J

    2016-01-01

    The relation between rainfall, runoff, erosion and sediment transport is highly variable in Mediterranean catchments. Their relation can be modified by land use changes and climate oscillations that, ultimately, will control water and sediment yields. This paper analyses rainfall, runoff and sediment transport relations in a meso-scale Mediterranean mountain catchment, the Ribera Salada (NE Iberian Peninsula). A total of 73 floods recorded between November 2005 and November 2008 at the Inglabaga Sediment Transport Station (114.5 km(2)) have been analysed. Suspended sediment transport and flow discharge were measured continuously. Rainfall data was obtained by means of direct rain gauges and daily rainfall reconstructions from radar information. Results indicate that the annual sediment yield (2.3 t km(-1) y(-1) on average) and the flood-based runoff coefficients (4.1% on average) are low. The Ribera Salada presents a low geomorphological and hydrological activity compared with other Mediterranean mountain catchments. Pearson correlations between rainfall, runoff and sediment transport variables were obtained. The hydrological response of the catchment is controlled by the base flows. The magnitude of suspended sediment concentrations is largely correlated with flood magnitude, while sediment load is correlated with the amount of direct runoff. Multivariate analysis shows that total suspended load can be predicted by integrating rainfall and runoff variables. The total direct runoff is the variable with more weight in the equation. Finally, three main hydro-sedimentary phases within the hydrological year are defined in this catchment: (a) Winter, where the catchment produces only water and very little sediment; (b) Spring, where the majority of water and sediment is produced; and (c) Summer-Autumn, when little runoff is produced but significant amount of sediments is exported out of the catchment. Results show as land use and climate change may have an important

  12. Rainfall simulation for environmental application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shriner, D.S.; Abner, C.H.; Mann, L.K.

    1977-08-01

    Rain simulation systems have been designed for field and greenhouse studies which have the capability of reproducing the physical and chemical characteristics of natural rainfall. The systems permit the simulation of variations in rainfall and droplet size similar to that of natural precipitation. The systems are completely automatic and programmable, allowing unattended operation for periods of up to one week, and have been used to expose not only vegetation but also soils and engineering materials, making them versatile tools for studies involving simulated precipitation.

  13. Chapman Conference on Rainfall Fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, V. K.

    The Chapman Conference on Rainfall Fields, sponsored by AGU, was the first of its kind; it was devoted to strengthening scientific interaction between the North American and Latin American geophysics communities. It was hosted by Universidad Simon Bolivar and Instituto Internacional de Estudios Avanzados, in Caracas, Venezuela, during March 24-27, 1986. A total of 36 scientists from Latin America, the United States, Canada, and Europe participated. The conference, which was convened by I. Rodriguez-Iturbe (Universidad Simon Bolivar) and V. K. Gupta (University of Mississippi, University), brought together hydrologists, meteorologists, and mathematicians/statisticians in the name of enhancing an interdisciplinary focus on rainfall research.

  14. Attributes for NHDPlus Catchments (Version 1.1) for the Conterminous United States: 30-Year Average Annual Precipitation, 1971-2000

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This data set represents the 30-year (1971-2000) average annual precipitation in millimeters multiplied by 100 compiled for every catchment of NHDPlus for the...

  15. Attributes for NHDPlus Catchments (Version 1.1) for the Conterminous United States: 30-Year Average Annual Maximum Temperature, 1971-2000

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This data set represents the 30-year (1971-2000) average annual maximum temperature in Celsius multiplied by 100 compiled for every catchment of NHDPlus for the...

  16. Attributes for NHDPlus Catchments (Version 1.1) for the Conterminous United States: 30-Year Average Annual Minimum Temperature, 1971-2000

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This data set represents the 30-year (1971-2000) average annual minimum temperature in Celsius multiplied by 100 compiled for every catchment of NHDPlus for the...

  17. Attributes for MRB_E2RF1 Catchments by Major River Basins in the Conterminous United States: 30-Year Average Annual Precipitation, 1971-2000

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This tabular data set represents the 30-year (1971-2000) average annual precipitation in millimeters multiplied by 100 compiled for every MRB_E2RF1 catchment of...

  18. Health risk or resource? Gradual and independent association between self-rated health and mortality persists over 30 years.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthias Bopp

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Poor self-rated health (SRH is associated with increased mortality. However, most studies only adjust for few health risk factors and/or do not analyse whether this association is consistent also for intermediate categories of SRH and for follow-up periods exceeding 5-10 years. This study examined whether the SRH-mortality association remained significant 30 years after assessment when adjusting for a wide range of known clinical, behavioural and socio-demographic risk factors. METHODS: We followed-up 8,251 men and women aged ≥ 16 years who participated 1977-79 in a community based health study and were anonymously linked with the Swiss National Cohort (SNC until the end of 2008. Covariates were measured at baseline and included education, marital status, smoking, medical history, medication, blood glucose and pressure. RESULTS: 92.8% of the original study participants could be linked to a census, mortality or emigration record of the SNC. Loss to follow-up 1980-2000 was 5.8%. Even after 30 years of follow-up and after adjustment for all covariates, the association between SRH and all-cause mortality remained strong and estimates almost linearly increased from "excellent" (reference: hazard ratio, HR 1 to "good" (men: HR 1.07 95% confidence interval 0.92-1.24, women: 1.22, 1.01-1.46 to "fair" (1.41, 1.18-1.68; 1.39, 1.14-1.70 to "poor"(1.61, 1.15-2.25; 1.49, 1.07-2.06 to "very poor" (2.85, 1.25-6.51; 1.30, 0.18-9.35. Persons answering the SRH question with "don't know" (1.87, 1.21-2.88; 1.26, 0.87-1.83 had also an increased mortality risk; this was pronounced in men and in the first years of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: SRH is a strong and "dose-dependent" predictor of mortality. The association was largely independent from covariates and remained significant after decades. This suggests that SRH provides relevant and sustained health information beyond classical risk factors or medical history and reflects salutogenetic rather than

  19. Evaluation of multi-satellite rainfall products over India during monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitra, Ashis K.; Prakash, Satya; Pai, D. S.; Srivastava, A. K.

    2016-05-01

    Simulation and prediction of Indian monsoon rainfall at scales from days-to-season is a challenging task for numerical modelling community worldwide. Gridded estimates of daily rainfall data are required for both land and oceanic regions for model validation, process studies and in turn for model development. Due to recent developments in satellite meteorology, it has become possible to produce realistic near real-time gridded rainfall datasets at operational basis by combining satellite estimates with rain gauge values and other available in-situ observations. Microwave and space based radar based estimates of rainfall has revolutionised the preparation of rainfall datasets especially for tropics. However, a variety of multi-satellite products are available over Indian monsoon region from a variety of sources. Popular products like TRMM TMPA3B42 (RT and V7), GsMaP, CPC/RFE, GPCP and GPM are available to end users in various space/time scales for applications and model validation. In this study, we show the representation and skill of monsoon rainfall from a variety of multi-satellite products over the Indian region. The bias and skill of multi-satellite rainfall are evaluated against gauge based observations. It was found that the TRMM based TMPA was one of the best dataset for Indian monsoon region. Attempt is made to compare the latest GPM based data with other products. The GPM based rainfall product is seen to be superior compared to TRMM.

  20. Estimation of rainfall thresholds for the initiation of landslides in the Ialomita Subcarpathians, Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chitu, Z.; Micu, D.; Sandric, I.; Mihai, B.

    2012-04-01

    Landslides are a common feature in the landscape of the Romanian hills and plateaus, affecting around 7% of the national territory (Pusch, 2004). It is general knowledge that landslides represent the combined result of a series of predisposing factors (lithology, faults, slope, land-use, land cover, etc.) with long term impact on slope stability and triggering factors (rainfall, snow melt, earthquakes) that temporarily modify the local hydrogeological conditions (Corominas, 2008). Rainfall represents the most common triggering factor of landslides in the Ialomita Subcarpathians, therefore the determination of rainfall thresholds for landslides initiation would be very useful for landslide hazard assessment and implementation of warning systems. This paper aims to determine regional rainfall thresholds in the Subcarpathian area between the Prahova and Ialomita Valleys, where the most frequent phenomena are: deep seated rotational slides, earth flows and complex movements (rotational slides combined with mudflow or translational slides). The methodology used in studies addressing the regional scale is based on empirical or statistical analysis of rainfall, due to the spatial and temporal variation of landslide factors. Given the lack of hourly measurements of rainfall variables for long periods in Romania we were constrained to determine the corresponding rainfall thresholds based on cumulated precipitation during the landslide events. The rainfall variables were chosen based on the typology of landslides: daily rainfall in the case of shallow landslides usually triggered by short and intense rainfall, normalized total precipitation (antecedent and event rainfall) for deep-seated landslides. After establishing what thresholds correspond to the different types of landslides, we continued by analyzing the spatial and temporal variability of the pluvial regime aiming to understand the over time occurrence of landslides in the Subcarpathian area between the Prahova and

  1. Correlations between rainfall data and insurance damage data related to sewer flooding for the case of Aarhus, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spekkers, Matthieu; Zhou, Qianqian; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten;

    Sewer flooding due to extreme rainfall may result in considerable damage. Damage data to quantify costs of cleaning, drying, and replacing materials and goods are rare in literature. In this study, insurance claim data related to property damages were analysed for the municipality of Aarhus......, Denmark. The aim of this paper was to study the extent to which rainfall data can be used to explain variations in insurance claim data. In particular, the paper addresses the issue of time-lag between claim date and time of the damaging rainfall event, which may, if not taken into account, lead...... on the three days after. A linear model that takes into account rainfall data from previous days slightly improves correlations between rainfall and damage variables compared to a simple linear model. Best correlation coefficients were found between maximum hourly rainfall intensity and daily number of claims...

  2. Trends in rainfall and temperature extremes in Morocco

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Khomsi

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available In Morocco, socioeconomic fields are vulnerable to weather extreme events. This work aims to analyze the frequency and the trends of temperature and rainfall extreme events in two contrasted Moroccan regions (the Tensift in the semi-arid South, and the Bouregreg in the sub-humid North, during the second half of the 20th century. This study considers long time series of daily extreme temperatures and rainfall, recorded in the stations of Marrakech and Safi for the Tensift region, and Kasba-Tadla and Rabat-Sale for the Bouregreg region, data from four other stations (Tanger, Fes, Agadir and Ouarzazate from outside the regions were added. Extremes are defined by using as thresholds the 1st, 5th, 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles. Results show upward trends in maximum and minimum temperatures of both regions and no generalized trends in rainfall amounts. Changes in cold events are larger than those for warm events, and the number of very cold events decrease significantly in the whole studied area. The southern region is the most affected with the changes of the temperature regime. Most of the trends found in rainfall heavy events are positive with weak magnitudes even though no statistically significant generalized trends could be identified during both seasons.

  3. Understanding Changes in frequency of extreme rainfall over Central India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnamurthy, C. B.; Lall, U.

    2010-12-01

    There has been much recent interest in examining changes in rainfall extremes of the Indian Monsoon, especially over the so-called core monsoon (Central Indian) region. Few such studies however consider the attribution to climatic variables (indices) of the observed variability. Using gridded daily rainfall data from 1901-2004, an attempt is made here to understand the evolution of frequency of extreme rainfall over the core monsoon region, and its relationship to relevant climatic indices(Equatorial India Ocean SST, an index of the Indian Ocean Dipole, NINO indices (NINO 3.4 and 1.2)). Using an objective definition of "extreme rainfall"( such that the thresholds chosen vary with grids but not overtime), two types of analyses are carried out. First, using spectral analyses (Wavelet and Multi-Taper), the relationship between climate indices and frequency of extremes are investigated. Subsequently, in a very general framework of quantile regression for count data, the existence of time trends are analyzed jointly with significance of climate indices at distinct quantiles. This approach allows for separate effects of the climate indices at different quanitles, thereby allowing for a more detailed investigation of the various relationships of interest postulated in the literature.

  4. On the Climatology of Persistent Heavy Rainfall Events in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    Persistent heavy rainfall events (PHR events) comprise one category of weather- and climate- related extreme events. Based on daily rainfall data measured in China during the period of 1951-2004, several quantitative criteria were developed to define PHR events by means of their precipitation intensity, temporal duration, spatial extent and persistence. Then a semi-objective classification based on these criteria was applied to summer daily rainfall data to identify all PHR events. A total of 197 events were observed during the study period. All events were further classified into 5 categories according to their coinprehensive intensity; into 3 types according to their circulation regime; and into 8 groups according to the geographic locations of their rainbands. Based on these different classifications, finally, the behaviors of 130 PHR events identified as the most severe, severe and moderate categories since the year of 1951, including characteristics of the spatial and temporal distributions of their frequencies, intensities, and rainbands,were investigated in order to present a comprehensive description of the PHR events. The results will be helpful to the future study of revealing and understanding the processes that govern the production of the PHR events and to the improvement of the forecasts of the PHR events.

  5. Daily Weather Maps

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Several different government offices have published the Daily weather maps over its history. The publication has also gone by different names over time. The U.S....

  6. Lightship Daily Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Observations taken on board lightships along the United States coasts from 1936 - 1983. Generally 4-6 observations daily. Also includes deck logs, which give...

  7. DailyMed Webservices

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The DailyMed RESTful API is a web service for accessing current SPL information. It is implemented using HTTP and can be thought of as a collection of resources,...

  8. Tips for Daily Living

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Tips and Gadgets for Daily Activities Dressing Tips Shopping Tips Modifying the Bathroom Driving After Stroke Medication ... and resources. Find a group in your area . Online Support If there is not a support group ...

  9. DailyMed

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — DailyMed provides high quality information about marketed drugs. This information includes FDA labels (package inserts). This Web site provides health information...

  10. Dementia - daily care

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... this page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/patientinstructions/000030.htm Dementia - daily care To use the sharing features on ... prevent choking. Tips for Talking With Someone With Dementia Keep distractions and noise down: Turn off the ...

  11. Multiscale characteristics of the rainy season rainfall and interdecadal decaying of summer monsoon in North China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DAI Xingang; WANG Ping; CHOU Jifan

    2003-01-01

    This paper focuses on the rainfall spectrum and its evolution of North China in rainy season with summer monsoon decaying in interdecadal time scale. The interannual component of the rainfall is the dominant part, accounting for 85% of the total variance, and has been changed significantly during the last 30 years. According to wavelet analysis its 5a periodic spectrum suddenly disappeared in the late 1960s, and its biennial oscillation gradually become weaker and weaker since 1970, accompanied by the summer monsoon decaying. Contrarily, the interdecadal component is principal in the summer monsoon over North China and is very similar to the counterpart of the rainfall. Their interdecadal parts are significantly correlated, and the correlation coefficient is nearly equal to the one of the original sequences. Besides, the dry and wet climate alternated with the monsoon abrupt changes in the 1960s and the 1970s over East Asia, apart from North China, climate drifted from a light drought to a severe drought during the past 30 years.

  12. Recovery and reproduction of an Antarctic tardigrade retrieved from a moss sample frozen for over 30 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsujimoto, Megumu; Imura, Satoshi; Kanda, Hiroshi

    2016-02-01

    Long-term survival has been one of the most studied of the extraordinary physiological characteristics of cryptobiosis in micrometazoans such as nematodes, tardigrades and rotifers. In the available studies of long-term survival of micrometazoans, instances of survival have been the primary observation, and recovery conditions of animals or subsequent reproduction are generally not reported. We therefore documented recovery conditions and reproduction immediately following revival of tardigrades retrieved from a frozen moss sample collected in Antarctica in 1983 and stored at -20 °C for 30.5 years. We recorded recovery of two individuals and development of a separate egg of the Antarctic tardigrade, Acutuncus antarcticus, providing the longest records of survival for tardigrades as animals or eggs. One of the two resuscitated individuals and the hatchling successfully reproduced repeatedly after their recovery from long-term cryptobiosis. This considerable extension of the known length of long-term survival of tardigrades recorded in our study is interpreted as being associated with the minimum oxidative damage likely to have resulted from storage under stable frozen conditions. The long recovery times of the revived tardigrades observed is suggestive of the requirement for repair of damage accrued over 30 years of cryptobiosis. Further more detailed studies will improve understanding of mechanisms and conditions underlying the long-term survival of cryptobiotic organisms.

  13. Changes in population structure and growth of skipjack tuna, Katsuwonus pelamis during 30 years of exploitation in the southwestern Atlantic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thais Garbin

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The skipjack tuna is the main tuna species caught in Brazil with pole and live-bait. Samples taken during 1984-1986 and the 2004-2009 periods provided length, weight and age data. A comparison of the population structure was made showing a decrease in the median and means of fork length in the 80's (median: 55 cm and recent years (median: 51 cm, an increased participation of smaller individuals (40 cm in recent catches, a high variability of lengths in each year class and a decrease of the condition factor K. These results indicate alterations in the population structure and dynamics. The von Bertalanffy growth parameters calculated for the recent years were L∞= 669 mm; k = 0.24 yr-1; t o = -3.8. CPUE data for the studied period seems to be stable (mean annual catch of 20,000 ton. However, the unit of effort used in Brazil (fishing days does not reflect changes in fishing power and technology properly as occurred during 30 years of exploitation. It is concluded that the present situation requires a close monitoring of the fishery.

  14. The Close AGN Reference Survey (CARS) - What is causing Mrk1018's return to the shadows after 30 years?

    CERN Document Server

    Husemann, B; Tremblay, G R; Krumpe, M; Dexter, J; Busch, G; Combes, F; Croom, S M; Davis, T A; Eckart, A; McElroy, R E; Perez-Torres, M; Powell, M; Scharwächter, J

    2016-01-01

    We recently discovered that the active galactic nucleus (AGN) of Mrk 1018 has changed optical type again after 30 years as a type 1 AGN. Here we combine Chandra, NuStar, Swift, Hubble Space Telescope and ground-based observations to explore the cause of this change. The 2-10keV flux declines by a factor of ~8 between 2010 and 2016. We show with our X-ray observation that this is not caused by varying neutral hydrogen absorption along the line-of-sight up to the Compton-thick level. The optical-UV spectral energy distributions are well fit with a standard geometrically thin optically thick accretion disc model that seems to obey the expected $L\\sim T^4$ relation. It confirms that a decline in accretion disc luminosity is the primary origin for the type change. We detect a new narrow-line absorber in Lya blue-shifted by ~700km/s with respect to the systemic velocity of the galaxy. This new Lya absorber could be evidence for the onset of an outflow or a companion black hole with associated gas that could be rela...

  15. Heterogeneity in subcortical brain development: A structural magnetic resonance imaging study of brain maturation from 8 to 30 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostby, Ylva; Tamnes, Christian K; Fjell, Anders M; Westlye, Lars T; Due-Tønnessen, Paulina; Walhovd, Kristine B

    2009-09-23

    Brain development during late childhood and adolescence is characterized by decreases in gray matter (GM) and increases in white matter (WM) and ventricular volume. The dynamic nature of development across different structures is, however, not well understood, and the present magnetic resonance imaging study took advantage of a whole-brain segmentation approach to describe the developmental trajectories of 16 neuroanatomical volumes in the same sample of children, adolescents, and young adults (n = 171; range, 8-30 years). The cerebral cortex, cerebral WM, caudate, putamen, pallidum, accumbens area, hippocampus, amygdala, thalamus, brainstem, cerebellar GM, cerebellar WM, lateral ventricles, inferior lateral ventricles, third ventricle, and fourth ventricle were studied. The cerebral cortex was further analyzed in terms of lobar thickness and surface area. The results revealed substantial heterogeneity in developmental trajectories. GM decreased nonlinearly in the cerebral cortex and linearly in the caudate, putamen, pallidum, accumbens, and cerebellar GM, whereas the amygdala and hippocampus showed slight, nonlinear increases in GM volume. WM increased nonlinearly in both the cerebrum and cerebellum, with an earlier maturation in cerebellar WM. In addition to similarities in developmental trajectories within subcortical regions, our results also point to differences between structures within the same regions: among the basal ganglia, the caudate showed a weaker relationship with age than the putamen and pallidum, and in the cerebellum, differences were found between GM and WM development. These results emphasize the importance of studying a wide range of structural variables in the same sample, for a broader understanding of brain developmental principles.

  16. Exposure to environmental tobacco smoke and birth outcome: increased effects on pregnant women aged 30 years or older.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahluwalia, I B; Grummer-Strawn, L; Scanlon, K S

    1997-07-01

    The purposes of this study were to examine the association between self-reported environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) exposure during pregnancy and birth weight, prematurity, and small-for-gestational age infants and to determine whether these associations differ by maternal age. Data from the Pregnancy Nutrition Surveillance System from two states that collected data on both passive and active smoking for the period 1989-1994 were analyzed. ETS exposure was defined as reported exposure to the cigarette smoke of a household member. Multiple logistic and linear regression analyses were used to evaluate the association between ETS and birth outcomes. The mean adjusted birth weight among infants of nonsmoking mothers age 30 years or older was 90 g less among infants exposed to ETS than among infants not exposed. No significant association was found among infants of younger nonsmoking mothers. Similarly, the risks for low birth weight (adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 2.42, 95% confidence interval 1.51-3.87) and preterm delivery (adjusted OR = 1.88, 95% confidence interval 1.22-2.88) were elevated among older nonsmokers exposed to ETS, but not among younger nonsmokers exposed to ETS (adjusted OR = 0.97, 95% confidence interval 0.76-1.23; adjusted OR = 0.92, 95% confidence interval 0.76-1.13, for low birth weight and preterm delivery, respectively). These findings indicate that the association between ETS exposure and adverse pregnancy outcomes appears to be modified by maternal age.

  17. Pediatricorthopedics:glorious30yearsJI S%小儿骨科辉煌30年

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吉士俊; 郭源; 张立军

    2015-01-01

    Pediatric orthopedics got a great development in the past 30 years. The type-B ultrasonic became an important detection method for developmental dysplasia of the hip as a higher standard of living and neonate screening. The application of Ponseti method brought signiifcant curative effects in the treatment of congenital clubfoot. Minimally invasive treatment was realized in traumatic fracture. We have got some experience of Ilizarov technique which was used in limb lengthening. The development of the spinal surgery was fast because of applications of needles and sticks, and the effects of the deformity correction were satisfactory. With the help of chemotherapy, the survival rate of osteosarcoma in 5 years achieved 80% after salvage limb operation. Our professional staff should popularize the technique of pediatric orthopedics to meet the needs of 300 000 000 children. Professional surgeons should master more skills, strengthen the leaning ability and develop the collective intelligence in the diagnosis and treatment. We should emphasize scientiifc research and innovation, and improve the ability of scientiifc thinking. The humanistic care should be valued in clinical work. We all need to be communicative and serve the patients enthusiastically. Then, pediatric orthopedics will be more prosperous and lfourishing.

  18. Clinical phenotypes of autoimmune polyendocrinopathycandidiasis-ectodermal dystrophy seen in the Northern Ireland paediatric population over the last 30 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millar, Sarinda; Carson, Dennis

    2012-09-01

    Autoimmune polyendocrinopathy-candidiasis-ectodermal dystrophy (APECED), also known as autoimmune polyendocrinopathy syndrome type 1, is a rare autosomal recessive disorder with a variable and evolving phenotypic course. It is caused by mutations in the autoimmune regulator (AIRE) gene. APECED syndrome is diagnosed clinically by the presence of 2 from 3 major criteria; chronic mucocutaneous candidasis, primary hypoparathyroidism and primary adrenocortical insufficiency. Many of the patients develop all three before the age of 20 years. There is also a wide spectrum of other associated conditions including endocrine and non endocrine manifestations. This paper reviews the clinical phenotypes seen in the paediatric population of Northern Ireland during the last 30 years detailed from a retrospective review of clinical notes. Eight patients were identified with APECED and all patients were found to be homozygous for the c.964dell3 mutation. A wide clinical variation is apparent within APECED syndrome. Paediatricians should be vigilant of the diagnosis when they encounter any of the features described and consider the future development of associated diseases. In confirmed APECED syndrome, clinical and laboratory investigation is essential to initiate early treatment in the patient and other affected members of the family.

  19. Committed retreat of Smith, Pope, and Kohler Glaciers over the next 30 years inferred by transient model calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldberg, D. N.; Heimbach, P.; Joughin, I.; Smith, B.

    2015-12-01

    A glacial flow model of Smith, Pope and Kohler Glaciers is calibrated by means of control methods against time varying, annually resolved observations of ice height and velocities, covering the period 2002 to 2011. The inversion - termed "transient calibration" - produces an optimal set of time-mean, spatially varying parameters together with a time-evolving state that accounts for the transient nature of observations and the model dynamics. Serving as an optimal initial condition, the estimated state for 2011 is used, with no additional forcing, for predicting grounded ice volume loss and grounding line retreat over the ensuing 30 years. The transiently calibrated model predicts a near-steady loss of grounded ice volume of approximately 21 km3 a-1 over this period, as well as loss of 33 km2 a-1 grounded area. We contrast this prediction with one obtained following a commonly used "snapshot" or steady-state inversion, which does not consider time dependence and assumes all observations to be contemporaneous. Transient calibration is shown to achieve a better fit with observations of thinning and grounding line retreat histories, and yields a quantitatively different projection with respect to ice volume loss and ungrounding. Sensitivity studies suggest large near-future levels of unforced, i.e., committed sea level contribution from these ice streams under reasonable assumptions regarding uncertainties of the unknown parameters.

  20. 30 years, some 700 integrals, and 1 dessert, or: Electroweak two-loop corrections to the Zbb vertex

    CERN Document Server

    Dubovyk, I; Gluza, J; Riemann, T; Usovitsch, J

    2016-01-01

    The one-loop corrections to the weak mixing angle $\\sin^2\\theta_{eff}^b$ derived from the $Z{\\bar b}b$ vertex, are known since 1985. It took another 30 years to calculate the complete electroweak two-loop corrections to $\\sin^2\\theta_{eff}^b$. The main obstacle was the calculation of the O(700) bosonic two-loop vertex integrals with up to three mass scales, at $s=M_Z^2$. We did not perform the usual integral reduction and master evaluation, but chose a completely numerical approach, using two different calculational chains. One method relies on publicly available sector decomposition implementations. Further, we derived Mellin-Barnes (MB) representations, exploring the publicly available MB suite. We had to supplement the MB suite by two new packages: AMBRE~3, a Mathematica program, for the efficient treatment of non-planar integrals and MBnumerics for advanced numerics in the Minkowskian space-time. Our preliminary result for LL2016, the "dessert", for the electroweak bosonic two-loop contributions to $\\sin^...

  1. Organizing Principles of Human Cortical Development--Thickness and Area from 4 to 30 Years: Insights from Comparative Primate Neuroanatomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amlien, Inge K; Fjell, Anders M; Tamnes, Christian K; Grydeland, Håkon; Krogsrud, Stine K; Chaplin, Tristan A; Rosa, Marcello G P; Walhovd, Kristine B

    2016-01-01

    The human cerebral cortex undergoes a protracted, regionally heterogeneous development well into young adulthood. Cortical areas that expand the most during human development correspond to those that differ most markedly when the brains of macaque monkeys and humans are compared. However, it remains unclear to what extent this relationship derives from allometric scaling laws that apply to primate brains in general, or represents unique evolutionary adaptations. Furthermore, it is unknown whether the relationship only applies to surface area (SA), or also holds for cortical thickness (CT). In 331 participants aged 4 to 30, we calculated age functions of SA and CT, and examined the correspondence of human cortical development with macaque to human expansion, and with expansion across nonhuman primates. CT followed a linear negative age function from 4 to 30 years, while SA showed positive age functions until 12 years with little further development. Differential cortical expansion across primates was related to regional maturation of SA and CT, with age trajectories differing between high- and low-expanding cortical regions. This relationship adhered to allometric scaling laws rather than representing uniquely macaque-human differences: regional correspondence with human development was as large for expansion across nonhuman primates as between humans and macaque.

  2. Changes in the area of inland lakes in arid regions of central Asia during the past 30 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Jie; Chen, Xi; Li, Junli; Yang, Liao; Fang, Hui

    2011-07-01

    Inland lakes are major surface water resource in arid regions of Central Asia. The area changes in these lakes have been proved to be the results of regional climate changes and recent human activities. This study aimed at investigating the area variations of the nine major lakes in Central Asia over the last 30 years. Firstly, multi-temporal Landsat imagery in 1975, 1990, 1999, and 2007 were used to delineate lake extents automatically based on Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) threshold segmentation, then lake area variations were detailed in three decades and the mechanism of these changes was analyzed with meteorological data and hydrological data. The results indicated that the total surface areas of these nine lakes had decreased from 91,402.06 km(2) to 46,049.23 km(2) during 1975-2007, accounting for 49.62% of their original area of 1975. Tail-end lakes in flat areas had shrunk dramatically as they were induced by both climate changes and human impacts, while alpine lakes remained relatively stable due to the small precipitation variations. With different water usage of river outlets, the variations of open lakes were more flexible than those of other two types. According to comprehensive analyses, different types of inland lakes presented different trends of area changes under the background of global warming effects in Central Asia, which showed that the increased human activities had broken the balance of water cycles in this region.

  3. Childhood family income and life outcomes in adulthood: findings from a 30-year longitudinal study in New Zealand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibb, Sheree J; Fergusson, David M; Horwood, L John

    2012-06-01

    The aims of this study were to use data gathered over the course of a 30-year longitudinal study to examine the linkages between economic circumstances in childhood and subsequent developmental outcomes spanning educational achievement; economic circumstances; crime; mental health; and teenage pregnancy. All of these outcomes have been linked with childhood economic conditions and it is frequently argued that reducing income inequalities will mitigate psychosocial risks of children reared in families facing economic hardship. Alternatively it may be suggested that the associations between childhood family economic circumstances and later outcomes are mediated by individual, family and social factors that are correlated with low family income and contribute to later outcomes. To examine these issues, data were drawn from a birth cohort of New Zealand children born in 1977 and followed to age 30. Declining childhood family income was associated with a range of negative outcomes in adulthood, including: lower educational achievement; poorer economic circumstances; higher rates of criminal offending; higher rates of mental health problems; and higher rates of teenage pregnancy. After covariate adjustment, childhood family income remained significantly associated with educational achievement and economic circumstances, but was no longer significantly associated with the mental health, offending and teenage pregnancy outcomes. These findings suggest that, after due allowance has been made for social, family and individual contextual factors, low family income during childhood is associated with a range of educational and economic disadvantages in adulthood but is not directly related to increased risks of crime, mental health problems or teen pregnancy.

  4. Hydrological Evaluation of TRMM Rainfall over the Upper Senegal River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ansoumana Bodian

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The availability of climatic data, especially on a daily time step, has become very rare in West Africa over the last few years due to the high costs of climate data monitoring. This scarcity of climatic data is a huge obstacle to conduct hydrological studies over some watersheds. In this context, our study aimed to evaluate the capacity of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM satellite data to simulate the observed runoffs over the Bafing (the main important tributary of the Senegal River before their potential integration in hydrological studies. The conceptual hydrological model GR4J (modèle du Génie Rural (Agricultural Engineering Model à 4 paramètres Journalier (4 parameters Daily has been used, calibrated and validated over the 1961–1997 period with rainfall and Potential Evapotranspiration (PET as inputs. Then, the parameters that best reflect the rainfall-runoff relation, obtained during the cross-calibration-validation phase, were used to simulate runoff over the 1998–2004 period using observed and TRMM rainfalls. The findings of this study show that there is a high consistency between satellite-based estimates and ground-based observations of rainfall. Over the 1998–2004 simulation period, the two rainfall data series show quite satisfactorily results. The output hydrographs from satellite-based estimates and ground-based observations of rainfall coincide quite well with the shape of observed hydrographs with Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient (NSE of 0.88 and 0.80 for observed rainfalls and TRMM rainfalls, respectively.

  5. Effects of rainfall intensity and intermittency on woody vegetation cover and deep soil moisture in dryland ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ding-Hai; Li, Xin-Rong; Zhang, Feng; Zhang, Zhi-Shan; Chen, Yong-Le

    2016-12-01

    Identifying the relationship between the stochastic daily rainfall regime and the dynamics of plants and soil moisture is fundamental for the sustainable management of dryland ecosystems in a context of global climate change. An eco-hydrological model that couples the dynamics of woody vegetation cover and deep soil moisture (typically with a depth interval of 30-150 cm) was used to investigate the effect of stochastic intensity and the intermittency of precipitation on soil moisture in this deep interval, which affects woody vegetation cover. Our results suggest that the precipitation intensity and intermittency play an important role in the dynamics of wood vegetation cover and deep soil moisture. In arid and semiarid regions, as the annual precipitation increased, the rate of woody vegetation cover increased as a power-law function, and the deep soil moisture increased exponentially. For a given annual rainfall, there were positive correlations between the rainfall intensity (or rainfall intermittency) and both the woody vegetation cover and deep soil moisture. The positive correlations between wood vegetation cover and both rainfall intensity and intermittency may decrease with increases in the precipitation intensity or precipitation intermittency. The positive correlations between deep soil moisture and both rainfall intensity and rainfall intermittency increase as the precipitation intensity or precipitation intermittency increases. Moreover, these positive correlations may increase with increases in the mean annual rainfall. Our results emphasize the importance of daily precipitation variations in controlling the responses of woody vegetation cover and deep soil moisture to climate variations in arid and semiarid regions. Our model can aid the understanding of rainfall processes and indicates that increases in rainfall intensity or rainfall intermittency may lead to an increase in woody vegetation cover and deep soil moisture given an invariable annual

  6. Detection of Spatio-temporal variations of rainfall and temperature extremes over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hari, V.; Karmakar, S.; Ghosh, S.

    2012-12-01

    Hydrologic disturbances are commonly associated with the phenomenal occurrence of extreme events. The human kind has always been facing problem with hydrologic extremes in terms of deaths and economic loss. Hence, a complete analysis of observed extreme events will have a substantial role in planning, designing and management of the water resource systems. In India, the occurrence of extreme events, such as heavy rainfall, which is directly associated with the flash flood have been observed. For example; in 2005, Mumbai city of India suffered a huge economic damage, due to the record rainfall of 94 cm in a day. In the same year, two other major cities Chennai and Bangalore had also experienced the flash floods due to the heavy rainfall. Hence, occurrence of these recent events instigates researchers to investigate long term variation and trend of extreme rainfall over India. Very few previous studies have been conducted in India either considering a particular region or by considering a single extreme rainfall variable (either frequency or intensity of rainfall). In the present study, rainfall variables such as intensity, duration, frequency and volume are considered to investigate spatio-temporal variations for the entire India. The peak over threshold method with 95 percentile is considered to delineate the extreme variables from the observed rainfall data available (at 1×1 deg) for a period of 1901-2004. The temporal variability is determined by implementing a moving window of 30 years. As well as, the correlation analysis is conducted with the implementation of non-parametric coefficients. The spatio-temporal variability of 50 year return level (RL) for the rainfall intensity is determined considering Generalized Pareto and non-parametric kernel distributions as best fit. To identify the significant changes in the derived RL from first to last time window, a bootstrap-based approach proposed by Kharin and Zwiers (2005, Jl. of Climate, 18, 1156-1173) is

  7. A Study of Rainfall Variations in the Philippines: 1950-1996

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bonifacio Pajuelas

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available The long-period rainfall variations in the Philippines are studied using unfiltered and filtered Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI. To have RAI’s that are representative for each group, zones of quasi-homogeneous climate were constructed based on highly correlated stations (r > 0.75, narrow standard deviation, and period of maximum rainfall using the 1950-1996 monthly rainfall total. Variance analyses of the RAI’s suggest that unfiltered samples do not significantly differ from the normal distribution except for the western part (climate type 1 that have significant positive skewness and peakedness. The RAI’s contain a significant amount of non-random elements and a significant negative change in mean is reflected over the central Visayas and Mindanao (climate type 3. Filtered RAI’s that are not significantly different from the normal distribution (at least for c2 test indicated significant trend over areas with high-variable rainfall (i.e., climate types 1, 2, 4 & 5.In general, long-period rainfall may have changed over the period of study. The 10-year filtered RAI’s have the possibility of falling rate over climate types 1, 2 & 5, but increasing rate over climate type 4. These trends are indicated towards the rainfall-sensitive months (i.e., February through May during El Niño or La Niña events. Falling rate is also significant from October through January over climate type 4. Longer periods (30-year filtered RAI’s have significant negative trend for climate types 2 &4, but positive trend for climate type 5. These trends also occurred during February through May.

  8. Chronic daily headaches

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    Fayyaz Ahmed

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Chronic Daily Headache is a descriptive term that includes disorders with headaches on more days than not and affects 4% of the general population. The condition has a debilitating effect on individuals and society through direct cost to healthcare and indirectly to the economy in general. To successfully manage chronic daily headache syndromes it is important to exclude secondary causes with comprehensive history and relevant investigations; identify risk factors that predict its development and recognise its sub-types to appropriately manage the condition. Chronic migraine, chronic tension-type headache, new daily persistent headache and medication overuse headache accounts for the vast majority of chronic daily headaches. The scope of this article is to review the primary headache disorders. Secondary headaches are not discussed except medication overuse headache that often accompanies primary headache disorders. The article critically reviews the literature on the current understanding of daily headache disorders focusing in particular on recent developments in the treatment of frequent headaches.

  9. Temporal disaggregation of daily meteorological grid data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vormoor, K.; Skaugen, T.

    2012-04-01

    For operational flood forecasting, the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Administration (NVE) applies the conceptual HBV rainfall-runoff model for 117 catchments. The hydrological models are calibrated and run using an extensive meteorological grid data set providing daily temperature and precipitation data back to 1957 for entire Norway at 1x1 km grid resolution (seNorge grids). The daily temporal resolution is dictated by the resolution of historical meteorological data. However, since meteorological forecasts and runoff observations are also available at a much finer than a daily time-resolution (e.g. 6 hourly), and many hydrological extreme events happens at a temporal scale of less than daily, it is important to try to establish a historical dataset of meteorological input at a finer corresponding temporal resolution. We present a simple approach for the temporal disaggregation of the daily meteorological seNorge grids into 6-hour values by consulting a HIRLAM hindcast grid data series with an hourly time resolution and a 10x10 km grid resolution. The temporal patterns of the hindcast series are used to disaggregate the daily interpolated observations from the seNorge grids. In this way, we produce a historical grid dataset from 1958-2010 with 6-hourly temperature and precipitation for entire Norway on a 1x1 km grid resolution. For validation and to see if additional information is gained, the disaggregated data is compared with observed values from selected meteorological stations. In addition, the disaggregated data is evaluated against daily data, simply split into four fractions. The validation results indicate that additional information is indeed gained and point out the benefit of disaggregated data compared to daily data split into four. With regard to temperature, the disaggregated values show very low deviations (MAE, RMSE), and are highly correlated with observed values. Regarding precipitation, the disaggregated data shows cumulative

  10. 30 Year patterns of mortality in Tobago, West Indies, 1976-2005: impact of glucose intolerance and alcohol intake.

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    Mariam Molokhia

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: To determine the main predictors of all-cause and cardiovascular (CV mortality in a rural West Indian population in Plymouth, Tobago over 30 years. METHODS: Questionnaire survey for CV risk factors and alcohol consumption patterns administered at baseline in 1976 with 92.5% response rate. 831/832 patients were followed up until 2005 or death. RESULTS: Hypertension (>140/90 mm Hg was prevalent in 48% of men and 44% of women, and 21% of men and 17% of women had diabetes. Evidence showed most predictors for all cause and cardiovascular mortality having the main effects at ages 160/95 mm Hg (HR 1.68, 95% CI 1.09-2.60, diabetes (HR 3.28, 95% CI 1.89-5.69, and BMI (HR 1.04, 95% CI 1.00-1.07. The main predictors of cardiovascular mortality were similar in the fully adjusted model: high sessional alcohol intake (HR 2.47 95% CI 1.10-5.57, severe hypertension (HR 2.78 95% CI 1.56-4.95, diabetes (HR 3.68 95% CI 1.77-7.67 and additionally LVH, (HR 5.54 95% CI 1.38-22.26, however BMI did not show independent effects. For men, high sessional alcohol intake explains 27% of all cause mortality, and 40% of cardiovascular mortality at age <60 yrs. In adults aged <60 years, the attributable risk fraction for IGT/Diabetes and all cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality is 28% in women vs. 11% in men, and 22% in women vs. 6% in men respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In this Afro-Caribbean population we found that a major proportion of deaths are attributable to high sessional alcohol intake (in males, diabetes, and hypertension and these risk factors primarily operate in those below 60 years.

  11. Overall decrease in the susceptibility of Mycoplasma bovis to antimicrobials over the past 30 years in France.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne V Gautier-Bouchardon

    Full Text Available Mycoplasma (M. bovis is frequently implicated in respiratory diseases of young cattle worldwide. Today, to combat M. bovis in Europe, only antimicrobial therapy is available, but often fails, leading to important economical losses. The antimicrobial susceptibility of M. bovis is not covered by antimicrobial resistance surveillance networks. The objectives of this study were to identify resistances that were acquired over the last 30 years in France and to determine their prevalence within contemporary strains. The minimum inhibition concentration (MIC values of 12 antimicrobials, considered active on M. bovis, were compared, using an agar dilution method, between 27 and 46 M. bovis isolates respectively obtained in 1978-1979 and in 2010-2012 from 73 distinct respiratory disease outbreaks in young cattle all over France. For eight antimicrobials, resistances were proven to be acquired over the period and expressed by all contemporary strains. The increase of the MIC value that inhibited 50% of the isolates (MIC50 was: i substantial for tylosin, tilmicosin, tulathromycin and spectinomycin, from 2 to >64, 2 to >128, 16 to 128 and 4 to >64 µg/mL, respectively, ii moderate for enrofloxacin, danofloxacin, marbofloxacin and oxytetracycline, from 0.25 to 0.5, 0.25 to 0.5, 0.5 to 1, 32 to >32 µg/mL, respectively. No differences were observed for gamithromycin, tildipirosin, florfenicol and valnemulin with MIC50 of 128, 128, 8, <0.03 µg/mL, respectively. If referring to breakpoint MIC values published for respiratory bovine pathogens, all contemporary isolates would be intermediate in vivo for fluoroquinolones and resistant to macrolides, oxytetracycline, spectinomycin and florfenicol.

  12. Phenolic compositions of 50 and 30 year sequences of Australian red wines: the impact of wine age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McRae, Jacqui M; Dambergs, Robert G; Kassara, Stella; Parker, Mango; Jeffery, David W; Herderich, Markus J; Smith, Paul A

    2012-10-10

    The phenolic composition of red wine impacts upon the color and mouthfeel and thus quality of the wine. Both of these characteristics differ depending on the age of a wine, with the purple of young wines changing to brick red and the puckering or aggressive astringency softening in older wines. This study investigated the color parameters, tannin concentrations and tannin composition of a 50 year series of Cabernet Sauvignon wines from a commercial label as well as 30 year series of Cabernet Sauvignon and Shiraz wines from a separate commercial label to assess the impact of wine age on phenolic composition and concentration. The wine color density in wines of 40 to 50 years old was around 5 AU compared with 16 AU of wine less than 12 months old, which correlated well with the concentration of non-bleachable pigments and pigmented polymers. Conversely, the anthocyanin concentrations in 10 year old wines were substantially lower than that of recently bottled wines (around 100 mg/L compared with 627 mg/L, respectively), adding further evidence that non-bleachable pigments including pigmented polymers play a much larger role in long-term wine color than anthocyanins. No age-related trend was observed for tannin concentration, indicating that the widely noted softer astringency of older red wines cannot necessarily be directly related to lower concentrations of soluble wine tannin and is potentially a consequence of changes in tannin structure. Wine tannins from older wines were generally larger than tannins from younger wines and showed structural changes consistent with oxidation.

  13. Impaired social cognition 30 years after hemispherectomy for intractable epilepsy: the importance of the right hemisphere in complex social functioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fournier, N M; Calverley, K L; Wagner, J P; Poock, J L; Crossley, M

    2008-04-01

    Clinical research with individuals following hemispherectomy typically quantifies the success of surgical outcomes by focusing primarily on the achievement of seizure control and the preservation of general brain functions, such as movement, sensation, language, and memory. In addition to these outcomes, careful study of individuals following hemispherectomy also has the potential to contribute to our understanding of functional brain asymmetries involving other complex cognitive behaviors. In this study, we report preliminary evidence for the lateralization of social perception. We administered a series of neuropsychological tests that were developed to assess emotional recognition and the formation of social inferences and advanced social cognitive judgments, as they occur in everyday situations, to two adult participants who underwent complete anatomic left- or right-sided hemispherectomy. Our results show that despite a 30-year postsurgical period of recovery and consistent and high levels of family support and social engagement, distinct cognitive profiles are still evident between our right- and left-sided participants. In particular, participant S.M., who underwent an anatomic right hemispherectomy, showed the most severe impairments in identifying negative emotional expressions and conversational exchanges involving lies and sarcasm and in "mentalizing" the intent of others. In contrast, participant J.H., who underwent an anatomic left hemispherectomy was highly skilled interpersonally, despite evident language-related limitations, and showed only mild difficulties when asked to identify emotional expressions involving disgust and anger. These results suggest that the right hemisphere plays a particularly important role in social cognitive functioning and reasoning. Further examination of the extent of social perceptual difficulties prior to and following surgical intervention for epilepsy may guide the development of effective social skills training

  14. 30 Years Retrospective Review of Tuberculosis Cases in a Tuberculosis Dispensary in Bursa/Nilufer, Turkey (1985-2014

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    Kayıhan PALA

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate tuberculosis control programmes of patients who applied to the Bursa Nilufer Tuberculosis Dispensary and by investigating the changes in the variables over 3 decades. Method: In this retrospective descriptive study, the records of all tuberculosis cases (1662 people treated in the last 30 years (1985-2014 at the Bursa Nilufer Tuberculosis Dispensary were examined. In the analysis, the chi-square test, the trend chi-square test and Fisher's exact test were used. Results: Males comprised 65.2% of the patients. The ages of the patients ranged from 1 to 87 years, and the mean age was 37.4 (95% CI:36.6-38.2. Among the cases, 86.7% were new and 74.1% were pulmonary tuberculosis. In the last decade, the proportion of women, the education level, the proportion of patients who had received a BCG vaccination and the proportion of active employees among women increased by a statistically significant amount, while the proportion of employees among men decreased. Clinical symptoms, such as weakness, anorexia, weight loss, and cough, decreased to a statistically significant degree. In the last decade, the mortality rate was 3.6%, a statistically significant increase compared with previous decades. Mortality was statistically significant higher among patients who were elderly, male, did not have a BCG scar or had a chronic disease. Conclusion: This study reveals the need for studies that determine the risk factors associated with tuberculosis mortality and examine the effectiveness of tuberculosis control programmes. Direct measures to address mortality risk factors can reduce the number of deaths from tuberculosis.

  15. The combined effect of smoking tobacco and drinking alcohol on cause-specific mortality: a 30 year cohort study

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    Watt Graham CM

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Smoking and consuming alcohol are both related to increased mortality risk. Their combined effects on cause-specific mortality were investigated in a prospective cohort study. Methods Participants were 5771 men aged 35-64, recruited during 1970-73 from various workplaces in Scotland. Data were obtained from a questionnaire and a screening examination. Causes of death were all cause, coronary heart disease (CHD, stroke, alcohol-related, respiratory and smoking-related cancer. Participants were divided into nine groups according to their smoking status (never, ex or current and reported weekly drinking (none, 1-14 units and 15 or more. Cox proportional hazards models were used to obtain relative rates of mortality, adjusted for age and other risk factors. Results In 30 years of follow-up, 3083 men (53.4% died. Compared with never smokers who did not drink, men who both smoked and drank 15+ units/week had the highest all-cause mortality (relative rate = 2.71 (95% confidence interval 2.31-3.19. Relative rates for CHD mortality were high for current smokers, with a possible protective effect of some alcohol consumption in never smokers. Stroke mortality increased with both smoking and alcohol consumption. Smoking affected respiratory mortality with little effect of alcohol. Adjusting for a wide range of confounders attenuated the relative rates but the effects of alcohol and smoking still remained. Premature mortality was particularly high in smokers who drank 15 or more units, with a quarter of the men not surviving to age 65. 30% of men with manual occupations both smoked and drank 15+ units/week compared with only 13% with non-manual ones. Conclusions Smoking and drinking 15+ units/week was the riskiest behaviour for all causes of death.

  16. Overall decrease in the susceptibility of Mycoplasma bovis to antimicrobials over the past 30 years in France.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gautier-Bouchardon, Anne V; Ferré, Séverine; Le Grand, Dominique; Paoli, Agnès; Gay, Emilie; Poumarat, François

    2014-01-01

    Mycoplasma (M.) bovis is frequently implicated in respiratory diseases of young cattle worldwide. Today, to combat M. bovis in Europe, only antimicrobial therapy is available, but often fails, leading to important economical losses. The antimicrobial susceptibility of M. bovis is not covered by antimicrobial resistance surveillance networks. The objectives of this study were to identify resistances that were acquired over the last 30 years in France and to determine their prevalence within contemporary strains. The minimum inhibition concentration (MIC) values of 12 antimicrobials, considered active on M. bovis, were compared, using an agar dilution method, between 27 and 46 M. bovis isolates respectively obtained in 1978-1979 and in 2010-2012 from 73 distinct respiratory disease outbreaks in young cattle all over France. For eight antimicrobials, resistances were proven to be acquired over the period and expressed by all contemporary strains. The increase of the MIC value that inhibited 50% of the isolates (MIC50) was: i) substantial for tylosin, tilmicosin, tulathromycin and spectinomycin, from 2 to >64, 2 to >128, 16 to 128 and 4 to >64 µg/mL, respectively, ii) moderate for enrofloxacin, danofloxacin, marbofloxacin and oxytetracycline, from 0.25 to 0.5, 0.25 to 0.5, 0.5 to 1, 32 to >32 µg/mL, respectively. No differences were observed for gamithromycin, tildipirosin, florfenicol and valnemulin with MIC50 of 128, 128, 8, <0.03 µg/mL, respectively. If referring to breakpoint MIC values published for respiratory bovine pathogens, all contemporary isolates would be intermediate in vivo for fluoroquinolones and resistant to macrolides, oxytetracycline, spectinomycin and florfenicol.

  17. The distribution and trends of fog and haze in the North China Plain over the past 30 years

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    G. Q. Fu

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Frequent low visibility, haze and fog events were found in the North China Plain (NCP. Data throughout the NCP during the past 30 years were examined to determine the horizontal distribution and decadal trends of low visibility, haze and fog events. The impact of meteorological factors such as wind and RH on those events was investigated. Results reveal distinct distributions of haze and fog days, due to their different formation mechanisms. Low visibility, haze and fog days all display increasing trends of before 1995, a steady stage during 1995–2003 and a drastically drop thereafter. All three events occurred most frequently during the heating season. Benefiting from emission control measures, haze and fog both show decreasing trends in winter during the past 3 decades, while summertime haze displays continuous increasing trends. The distribution of wind speed and wind direction as well as the topography within the NCP has determinative impacts on the distribution of haze and fog. Weakened south-easterly winds in the southern part of the NCP has resulted in high pollutant concentrations and frequent haze events along the foot of the Taihang Mountains. The orographic wind convergence zone in the central band area of the southern NCP is responsible for the frequent fog events in this region. Wind speed has been decreasing throughout the entire southern NCP, resulting in more stable atmospheric conditions and weaker dispersion abilities, calling for harder efforts to control emissions to prevent haze events. Haze events are strongly influenced by the ambient RH. RH values associated with haze days are evidently increasing, suggesting that an increasing fraction of haze events are caused by the hygroscopic growth of aerosols, rather than simply by high aerosol loadings.

  18. Prevention and treatment of gastrointestinal dysfunction following severe burns:A summary of recent 30-year clinical experience

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Shi-Chu Xiao; Shi-Hui Zhu; Zhao-Fan Xia; Wei Lu; Guang-Qing Wang; Dao-Feng Ben; Guang-Yi Wang; Da-Sheng Cheng

    2008-01-01

    AIM:To sum up the recent 30-year experience in the prevention and treatment of gastrointestinal dysfunction in severe burn patients,and propose practicable guidelines for the prevention and treatment of gastrointestinal (GI) dysfunction.METHODS= From 1980 to 2007,a total of 219 patients with large area and extraordinarily large area burns (LAB) were admitted,who were classified into three stages according the therapeutic protocols used at the time:Stage 1 from 1980 to 1989,stage 2 from 1990 to 1995,and stage 3 from 1996 to 2007.The occurrence and mortality of GI dysfunction in patients of the three stages were calculated and the main causes were analyzed.RESULTS:The occurrence of stress ulcer in patients with LAB was 8.6% in stage 1,which was significantly lower than that in stage 1 (P < 0.05).No massive hemorrhage from severe stress ulcer and enterogenic infections occurred in stages 2 and 3.The occurrence of abdominal distension and stress ulcer and the mortality in stage 3 patients with extraordinarily LAB was 7.1%,21.4% and 28.5%,respectively,which were significantly lower than those in stage 1 patients (P < 0.05 or P < 0.01),and the occurrence of stress ulcer was also significantly lower than that in stage 2 patients (P < 0.05).CONCLUSION:Comprehensive fluid resuscitation,early excision of necrotic tissue,staged food ingestion,and administration of specific nutrients are essential strategies for preventing gastrointestinal complications and lowering mortality in severely burned patients.

  19. Method for generating spatial and temporal synthetic hourly rainfall in the Valley of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendoza-Resendiz, Alejandro; Arganis-Juarez, Maritza; Dominguez-Mora, Ramon; Echavarria, Bernardo

    2013-10-01

    Hydrological risk analyses require a dense pluviometer network and a long period of records with an adequate time resolution; usually pluviometer networks have short periods of simultaneous records, so it is required to extend the number of records by means of synthetically generated rainfall events. This paper describes the development and implementation of a method based on a daily rainfall disaggregation for generating synthetic rainfall events distributed spatially and temporally. It uses the information recorded in 49 rain-gauge stations in the network of the basin of the Valley of Mexico during the rainy season from 1988 to 2006. Within various methods found in the literature, we consider that this one provides a greater simplicity for a practical implementation. The tests carried out showed that rainfall events generated with this method properly reproduce the statistical parameters of the historical records, including those that are not implicitly incorporated in the model, as is the case of the synthetic hourly rainfall, whose statistical values are virtually identical to the historical ones despite that the proposed method only uses the probability distribution of maximum daily rainfall.

  20. Global Historical Climatology Network - Daily (GHCN-Daily), Version 3

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Historical Climatology Network - Daily (GHCN-Daily) dataset integrates daily climate observations from approximately 30 different data sources. Version 3...

  1. Cancer risk in patients aged 30 years and above with type 2 diabetes receiving antidiabetic monotherapy: a cohort study using metformin as the comparator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen YC

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Yu-Ching Chen,1 Victor C Kok,1,2 Ching-Hsuan Chien,1 Jorng-Tzong Horng,1,3 Jeffrey J P Tsai11Department of Biomedical Informatics, Asia University, Taichung, 2Department of Internal Medicine, Kuang Tien General Hospital, Taichung, 3Department of Computer Science and Information Engineering, National Central University, Jhongli, TaiwanIntroduction: Accumulating evidence suggests that metformin reduces incident cancer development. Few cohort studies have evaluated the risk of subsequent cancer development in diabetic cohorts receiving antidiabetic monotherapy. We conducted a population-based study in patients with new-onset type 2 diabetes treated with antidiabetic monotherapy.Methods: We identified a cohort of patients with type 2 diabetics aged ≥30 years receiving hypoglycemic monotherapy (n=7,325 from the 1998–2007 Longitudinal Health Insurance Dataset. Patients were grouped according to the antidiabetic therapy they received into metformin (n=2,223, sulfonylurea (n=3,965, glitazone (n=53, meglitinide (n=128, acarbose (n=150, and insulin (n=806 groups. Patients with preexisting cancer were excluded. All patients were followed up until cancer development, dropout, death, or until December 31, 2008. Cox’s model was used to estimate multivariable hazard ratios (HRs adjusted for age, sex, Charlson comorbidity index, smoking-related comorbidities, alcohol use disorders, morbid obesity, pancreatitis, hypertension, monthly income, and urbanization level. The log-rank test was used to compare cumulative cancer incidence. Two-sided P-values <0.05 were required to reject the null hypothesis.Results: The overall median follow-up duration was 2.5 years (interquartile range, 3.6 years. Totally, 367 and 124 cancers developed in the sulfonylurea and metformin groups, respectively, representing an adjusted HR of 1.36 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.11–1.67; P<0.005. No significant differences were observed between other groups. Increased adjusted HRs

  2. A Merging Framework for Rainfall Estimation at High Spatiotemporal Resolution for Distributed Hydrological Modeling in a Data-Scarce Area

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    Yinping Long

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Merging satellite and rain gauge data by combining accurate quantitative rainfall from stations with spatial continuous information from remote sensing observations provides a practical method of estimating rainfall. However, generating high spatiotemporal rainfall fields for catchment-distributed hydrological modeling is a problem when only a sparse rain gauge network and coarse spatial resolution of satellite data are available. The objective of the study is to present a satellite and rain gauge data-merging framework adapting for coarse resolution and data-sparse designs. In the framework, a statistical spatial downscaling method based on the relationships among precipitation, topographical features, and weather conditions was used to downscale the 0.25° daily rainfall field derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA precipitation product version 7. The nonparametric merging technique of double kernel smoothing, adapting for data-sparse design, was combined with the global optimization method of shuffled complex evolution, to merge the downscaled TRMM and gauged rainfall with minimum cross-validation error. An indicator field representing the presence and absence of rainfall was generated using the indicator kriging technique and applied to the previously merged result to consider the spatial intermittency of daily rainfall. The framework was applied to estimate daily precipitation at a 1 km resolution in the Qinghai Lake Basin, a data-scarce area in the northeast of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The final estimates not only captured the spatial pattern of daily and annual precipitation with a relatively small estimation error, but also performed very well in stream flow simulation when applied to force the geomorphology-based hydrological model (GBHM. The proposed framework thus appears feasible for rainfall estimation at high spatiotemporal resolution in data-scarce areas.

  3. Novel SVM-based technique to improve rainfall estimation over the Mediterranean region (north of Algeria) using the multispectral MSG SEVIRI imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sehad, Mounir; Lazri, Mourad; Ameur, Soltane

    2017-03-01

    In this work, a new rainfall estimation technique based on the high spatial and temporal resolution of the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infra Red Imager (SEVIRI) aboard the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) is presented. This work proposes efficient scheme rainfall estimation based on two multiclass support vector machine (SVM) algorithms: SVM_D for daytime and SVM_N for night time rainfall estimations. Both SVM models are trained using relevant rainfall parameters based on optical, microphysical and textural cloud proprieties. The cloud parameters are derived from the Spectral channels of the SEVIRI MSG radiometer. The 3-hourly and daily accumulated rainfall are derived from the 15 min-rainfall estimation given by the SVM classifiers for each MSG observation image pixel. The SVMs were trained with ground meteorological radar precipitation scenes recorded from November 2006 to March 2007 over the north of Algeria located in the Mediterranean region. Further, the SVM_D and SVM_N models were used to estimate 3-hourly and daily rainfall using data set gathered from November 2010 to March 2011 over north Algeria. The results were validated against collocated rainfall observed by rain gauge network. Indeed, the statistical scores given by correlation coefficient, bias, root mean square error and mean absolute error, showed good accuracy of rainfall estimates by the present technique. Moreover, rainfall estimates of our technique were compared with two high accuracy rainfall estimates methods based on MSG SEVIRI imagery namely: random forests (RF) based approach and an artificial neural network (ANN) based technique. The findings of the present technique indicate higher correlation coefficient (3-hourly: 0.78; daily: 0.94), and lower mean absolute error and root mean square error values. The results show that the new technique assign 3-hourly and daily rainfall with good and better accuracy than ANN technique and (RF) model.

  4. On extreme rainfall intensity increases with air temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molnar, Peter; Fatichi, Simone; Paschalis, Athanasios; Gaal, Ladislav; Szolgay, Jan; Burlando, Paolo

    2016-04-01

    The water vapour holding capacity of air increases at about 7% per degree C according to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. This is one of the arguments why a warmer future atmosphere, being able to hold more moisture, will generate higher extreme precipitation intensities. However, several empirical studies have recently demonstrated an increase in extreme rain intensities with air temperature above CC rates, in the range 7-14% per degree C worldwide (called super-CC rates). This was observed especially for shorter duration rainfall, i.e. in hourly and finer resolution data (e.g. review in Westra et al., 2014). The super-CC rate was attributed to positive feedbacks between water vapour and the updraft dynamics in convective clouds and lateral supply (convergence) of moisture. In addition, mixing of storm types was shown to be potentially responsible for super-CC rates in empirical studies. Assuming that convective events are accompanied by lightning, we will show on a large rainfall dataset in Switzerland (30 year records of 10-min and 1-hr data from 59 stations) that while the average rate of increase in extreme rainfall intensity (95th percentile) is 6-7% in no-lightning events and 8-9% in lightning events, it is 11-13% per degree C when all events are combined (Molnar et al., 2015). These results are relevant for climate change studies which predict shifts in storm types in a warmer climate in some parts of the world. The observation that extreme rain intensity and air temperature are positively correlated has consequences for the stochastic modelling of rainfall. Most current stochastic models do not explicitly include a direct rain intensity-air temperature dependency beyond applying factors of change predicted by climate models to basic statistics of precipitation. Including this dependency explicitly in stochastic models will allow, for example in the nested modelling approach of Paschalis et al. (2014), the random cascade disaggregation routine to be

  5. Simulating Daily and Sub-daily Water Flow in Large, Semi-arid Watershed Using SWAT: A Case Study of Nueces River Basin, Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bassam, S.; Ren, J.

    2015-12-01

    Runoff generated during heavy rainfall imposes quick, but often intense, changes in the flow of streams, which increase the chance of flash floods in the vicinity of the streams. Understanding the temporal response of streams to heavy rainfall requires a hydrological model that considers meteorological, hydrological, and geological components of the streams and their watersheds. SWAT is a physically-based, semi-distributed model that is capable of simulating water flow within watersheds with both long-term, i.e. annually and monthly, and short-term (daily and sub-daily) time scales. However, the capability of SWAT in sub-daily water flow modeling within large watersheds has not been studied much, compare to long-term and daily time scales. In this study we are investigating the water flow in a large, semi-arid watershed, Nueces River Basin (NRB) with the drainage area of 16950 mi2 located in South Texas, with daily and sub-daily time scales. The objectives of this study are: (1) simulating the response of streams to heavy, and often quick, rainfall, (2) evaluating SWAT performance in sub-daily modeling of water flow within a large watershed, and (3) examining means for model performance improvement during model calibration and verification based on results of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The results of this study can provide important information for water resources planning during flood seasons.

  6. Toothbrushing: Do It Daily.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Texas Child Care, 1993

    1993-01-01

    Offers a practical guide for promoting daily toothbrushing in young children. Discusses the importance of proper dental care, explains the causes of tooth decay, describes proper dental care for infants and young children, recommends materials and teaching methods, and discusses visits to the dentist and the benefits of fluoride for dental health.…

  7. Interannual variability of seasonal rainfall over the Cape south coast of South Africa and synoptic type association

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engelbrecht, Christien J.; Landman, Willem A.

    2016-07-01

    The link between interannual variability of seasonal rainfall over the Cape south coast of South Africa and different synoptic types as well as selected teleconnections is explored. Synoptic circulation over the region is classified into different synoptic types by employing a clustering technique, the self-organizing map (SOM), on daily circulation data for the 33-year period from 1979 to 2011. Daily rainfall data are used to investigate interannual variability of seasonal rainfall within the context of the identified synoptic types. The anomalous frequency of occurrence of the different synoptic types for wet and for dry seasons differs significantly within the SOM space, except for austral spring. The main rainfall-producing synoptic types are to a large extent consistent for wet and dry seasons. The main rainfall-producing synoptic types have a notable larger contribution to seasonal rainfall totals during wet seasons than during dry seasons, consistent with a higher frequency of occurrence of the main rainfall-producing synoptic types during wet seasons compared to dry seasons. Dry seasons are characterized by a smaller contribution to seasonal rainfall totals by all the different synoptic types, but with the largest negative anomalies associated with low frequencies of the main rainfall-producing synoptic types. The frequencies of occurrence of specific configurations of ridging high pressure systems, cut-off lows and tropical-temperate troughs associated with rainfall are positively linked to interannual variability of seasonal rainfall. It is also shown that the distribution of synoptic types within the SOM space is linked to the Southern Annular Mode and El Niño Southern Oscillation, implying some predictability of intraseasonal variability at the seasonal time scale.

  8. PREVALENCE AND RISK FACTORS OF HYPERTENSION AMONG ADULTS AGED 30 YEARS AND ABOVE IN A RURAL DWELLING OF KOTTAYAM, KERALA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anand

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available : INTRODUCTION: Rising prevalence of hypertension is a major public health challenge in India especially in Kerala. This cross sectional study was done to assess the prevalence of hypertension and its determinants in a rural population of Kottayam, Kerala. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Community based cross sectional study was carried out among 400 adults aged 30 years and above in a randomly selected ward of Ettumanoor panchayath, which is the field practice area of Govt. Medical college, Kottayam. A pretested semi structured questionnaire was used to collect information regarding socio demographic and behavioral factors. Standardized sphygmomanometric blood pressure measurement was taken by trained team members twice for each individual and the average of the two was taken as blood pressure. Anthropometric measurements were also done. A systolic blood pressure of ≥140mm of Hg and or diastolic BP≥90mm of Hg was regarded as hypertension. Data analysis was done using the software Epi-info version 3.4.3. Chi square test revealed the association between hypertension (dependent variable and other socio demographic and behavioural factors (independent variable. A p-value of <0.05 was taken as significant. All the significant variables are included in the binary logistic regression to find out Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR RESULTS: The overall prevalence of hypertension was 35% (males-33.8% females -35.6%. The variables which evolved as significant and remained so in binary logistic regression analysis were single status after marriage/ unmarried (AOR-2.45 95% CI 1.38-4.38, low educational status (AOR- 2.31, 95%CI-1.46-3.64, family history of hypertension (AOR-1.85 95%CI-1.2-2.85 and trunkal obesity in females (AOR-2.41 95%CI-1.37-4.24 CONCLUSION: The present study revealed the prevalence (35% and risk factors for hypertension in the study area. The results of the study can be used to develop messages to make the people aware of the problem of hypertension

  9. Evaluating the demographic buffering hypothesis with vital rates estimated for Weddell seals from 30years of mark-recapture data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rotella, J.J.; Link, W.A.; Chambert, T.; Stauffer, G.E.; Garrott, R.A.

    2012-01-01

    1.Life-history theory predicts that those vital rates that make larger contributions to population growth rate ought to be more strongly buffered against environmental variability than are those that are less important. Despite the importance of the theory for predicting demographic responses to changes in the environment, it is not yet known how pervasive demographic buffering is in animal populations because the validity of most existing studies has been called into question because of methodological deficiencies. 2.We tested for demographic buffering in the southern-most breeding mammal population in the world using data collected from 5558 known-age female Weddell seals over 30years. We first estimated all vital rates simultaneously with mark-recapture analysis and then estimated process variance and covariance in those rates using a hierarchical Bayesian approach. We next calculated the population growth rate's sensitivity to changes in each of the vital rates and tested for evidence of demographic buffering by comparing properly scaled values of sensitivity and process variance in vital rates. 3.We found evidence of positive process covariance between vital rates, which indicates that all vital rates are affected in the same direction by changes in annual environment. Despite the positive correlations, we found strong evidence that demographic buffering occurred through reductions in variation in the vital rates to which population growth rate was most sensitive. Process variation in vital rates was inversely related to sensitivity measures such that variation was greatest in breeding probabilities, intermediate for survival rates of young animals and lowest for survival rates of older animals. 4.Our work contributes to a small but growing set of studies that have used rigorous methods on long-term, detailed data to investigate demographic responses to environmental variation. The information from these studies improves our understanding of life

  10. An Improved Dynamical Downscaling Method with GCM Bias Corrections and Its Validation with 30 Years of Climate Simulations

    KAUST Repository

    Xu, Zhongfeng

    2012-09-01

    An improved dynamical downscaling method (IDD) with general circulation model (GCM) bias corrections is developed and assessed over North America. A set of regional climate simulations is performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) version 3.3 embedded in the National Center for Atmospheric Research\\'s (NCAR\\'s) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). The GCM climatological means and the amplitudes of interannual variations are adjusted based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-NCAR global reanalysis products (NNRP) before using them to drive WRF. In this study, the WRF downscaling experiments are identical except the initial and lateral boundary conditions derived from the NNRP, original GCM output, and bias-corrected GCM output, respectively. The analysis finds that the IDD greatly improves the downscaled climate in both climatological means and extreme events relative to the traditional dynamical downscaling approach (TDD). The errors of downscaled climatological mean air temperature, geopotential height, wind vector, moisture, and precipitation are greatly reduced when the GCM bias corrections are applied. In the meantime, IDD also improves the downscaled extreme events characterized by the reduced errors in 2-yr return levels of surface air temperature and precipitation. In comparison with TDD, IDD is also able to produce a more realistic probability distribution in summer daily maximum temperature over the central U.S.-Canada region as well as in summer and winter daily precipitation over the middle and eastern United States. © 2012 American Meteorological Society.

  11. Spatial variability and rainfall characteristics of Kerala

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Anu Simon; K Mohankumar

    2004-06-01

    Geographical regions of covariability in precipitation over the Kerala state are exposed using factor analysis. The results suggest that Kerala can be divided into three unique rainfall regions, each region having a similar covariance structure of annual rainfall. Stations north of 10°N (north Kerala) fall into one group and they receive more rainfall than stations south of 10°N (south Kerala). Group I stations receive more than 65% of the annual rainfall during the south-west monsoon period, whereas stations falling in Group II receive 25-30% of annual rainfall during the pre-monsoon and the north-east monsoon periods. The meteorology of Kerala is profoundly influenced by its orographical features, however it is difficult to make out a direct relationship between elevation and rainfall. Local features of the state as reflected in the rainfall distribution are also clearly brought out by the study.

  12. Meso-scale distribution of summer monsoon rainfall near the Western Ghats (India)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patwardhan, S. K.; Asnani, G. C.

    2000-04-01

    The spatial distribution of southwest monsoon rainfall is studied over Maharashtra State (India), which includes part of the well-known Western Ghats mountain range, near its western boundary, running almost from north to south, perpendicular to the summer monsoon current in the lower troposphere. Meso-scale analysis of daily rainfall is performed for Maharashtra State, including the Western Ghats, for the two mid-monsoon months of July and August, during the 10-year period of 1971-1980. Strong and weak monsoon days were identified for the 5-year period of 1976-1980. The meso-scale pattern of average daily rainfall is obtained separately for strong and for weak monsoon conditions.All these average patterns show the following features: (i) the rainfall increases rapidly from the Arabian Sea coast close to the line of maximum height of the Western Ghats; (ii) there are two rainfall maxima corresponding to the two mountain peaks parallel to the coast line; (iii) between the two mountain peaks, there is a valley which is narrow at the western end (upwind end), broadening towards the east (on the downwind side). Ground contour height of the valley rises eastwards and ends as a part of the Deccan Plateau east of the Ghats. Here the valley opens out like a funnel with higher mountains flanking its two sides. In the valley, the rainfall increases from the coast up to the line of maximum height of the Ghats, and then decreases eastwards towards the plateau. The rainfall isopleths also take a funnel-shaped configuration. An interesting feature is that near the wider section of the valley funnel, there is a rainfall minimum and then the rainfall increases further eastwards on the downwind side. This feature of rainfall minimum is somewhat similar to the rainfall minimum reported by Asnani and Kinuthia (personal communication); Asnani (Asnani GC. 1993. Tropical Meteorology, Vol. I. Prof. G.C. Asnani: Pune, India; 603) attributed the rainfall minimum to the Bernoulli effect. A

  13. The Impact of Rainfall on Soil Moisture Dynamics in a Foggy Desert

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Bonan; Wang, Lixin; Kaseke, Kudzai F.; Li, Lin; Seely, Mary K.

    2016-01-01

    Soil moisture is a key variable in dryland ecosystems since it determines the occurrence and duration of vegetation water stress and affects the development of weather patterns including rainfall. However, the lack of ground observations of soil moisture and rainfall dynamics in many drylands has long been a major obstacle in understanding ecohydrological processes in these ecosystems. It is also uncertain to what extent rainfall controls soil moisture dynamics in fog dominated dryland systems. To this end, in this study, twelve to nineteen months’ continuous daily records of rainfall and soil moisture (from January 2014 to August 2015) obtained from three sites (one sand dune site and two gravel plain sites) in the Namib Desert are reported. A process-based model simulating the stochastic soil moisture dynamics in water-limited systems was used to study the relationships between soil moisture and rainfall dynamics. Model sensitivity in response to different soil and vegetation parameters under diverse soil textures was also investigated. Our field observations showed that surface soil moisture dynamics generally follow rainfall patterns at the two gravel plain sites, whereas soil moisture dynamics in the sand dune site did not show a significant relationship with rainfall pattern. The modeling results suggested that most of the soil moisture dynamics can be simulated except the daily fluctuations, which may require a modification of the model structure to include non-rainfall components. Sensitivity analyses suggested that soil hygroscopic point (sh) and field capacity (sfc) were two main parameters controlling soil moisture output, though permanent wilting point (sw) was also very sensitive under the parameter setting of sand dune (Gobabeb) and gravel plain (Kleinberg). Overall, the modeling results were not sensitive to the parameters in non-bounded group (e.g., soil hydraulic conductivity (Ks) and soil porosity (n)). Field observations, stochastic modeling

  14. Probability Distribution and Projected Trends of Daily Precipitation in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CAO; Li-Ge; ZHONG; Jun; SU; Bu-Da; ZHAI; Jian-Qing; Macro; GEMMER

    2013-01-01

    Based on observed daily precipitation data of 540 stations and 3,839 gridded data from the high-resolution regional climate model COSMO-Climate Limited-area Modeling(CCLM)for 1961–2000,the simulation ability of CCLM on daily precipitation in China is examined,and the variation of daily precipitation distribution pattern is revealed.By applying the probability distribution and extreme value theory to the projected daily precipitation(2011–2050)under SRES A1B scenario with CCLM,trends of daily precipitation series and daily precipitation extremes are analyzed.Results show that except for the western Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and South China,distribution patterns of the kurtosis and skewness calculated from the simulated and observed series are consistent with each other;their spatial correlation coefcients are above 0.75.The CCLM can well capture the distribution characteristics of daily precipitation over China.It is projected that in some parts of the Jianghuai region,central-eastern Northeast China and Inner Mongolia,the kurtosis and skewness will increase significantly,and precipitation extremes will increase during 2011–2050.The projected increase of maximum daily rainfall and longest non-precipitation period during flood season in the aforementioned regions,also show increasing trends of droughts and floods in the next 40 years.

  15. Basque Country as Alternative Media laboratory. Compilation of the most interesting experiences for the last 30 years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Txema Ramírez-de-la-Piscina

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This work is an overview of the general situation of Alternative Media in the Basque Country, concentrating on a specific communication project: the pirate radio Hala Bedi Irratia, a tolerated but not completely legal radio station, which in 2008 celebrated its 25th anniversary. The station has thousands of listeners daily and it broadcasts 24 hours a day. It survives thanks to the voluntary work of dozens of social communicators. They have never included a paid advertisement on their air waves, nor have they asked for a grant from the State. Nevertheless, the project is very much alive. The station is based on a very wide social network which supports it, and on a very intelligent use of new technologies.

  16. Making Daily Mobility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Ole B.; Wind, Simon

    , social networks, understanding of places and ultimately ourselves and others. To successfully accomplish everyday life, households have to cope with large number of different activities and mobility in relation to their children, work, social life, obligations, expectations, needs and wishes. Drawing...... practice configurations. The paper draws on empirical material collected from the project ‘Analysis of activity-based travel chains and sustainable mobility’ (ACTUM WP2), consisting of qualitative semi-structured interviews with 45 respondents in 11 children families spread across the Greater Copenhagen...... accomplishing daily life. The study also shows that practices need constant maintenance as they are continuously de-stabilised by changing conditions and situations. This careful and competent work involved in the maintenance and adjustment of daily practices is done in relation to the household member...

  17. Changes in the geographical distribution and abundance of the tick Ixodes ricinus during the past 30 years in Sweden

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaenson Thomas GT

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Ixodes ricinus is the main vector in Europe of human-pathogenic Lyme borreliosis (LB spirochaetes, the tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV and other pathogens of humans and domesticated mammals. The results of a previous 1994 questionnaire, directed at people living in Central and North Sweden (Svealand and Norrland and aiming to gather information about tick exposure for humans and domestic animals, suggested that Ixodes ricinus ticks had become more widespread in Central Sweden and the southern part of North Sweden from the early 1980s to the early 1990s. To investigate whether the expansion of the tick's northern geographical range and the increasing abundance of ticks in Sweden were still occurring, in 2009 we performed a follow-up survey 16 years after the initial study. Methods A questionnaire similar to the one used in the 1994 study was published in Swedish magazines aimed at dog owners, home owners, and hunters. The questionnaire was published together with a popular science article about the tick's biology and role as a pathogen vector in Sweden. The magazines were selected to get information from people familiar with ticks and who spend time in areas where ticks might be present. Results Analyses of data from both surveys revealed that during the near 30-year period from the early 1980s to 2008, I. ricinus has expanded its distribution range northwards. In the early 1990s ticks were found in new areas along the northern coastline of the Baltic Sea, while in the 2009 study, ticks were reported for the first time from many locations in North Sweden. This included locations as far north as 66°N and places in the interior part of North Sweden. During this 16-year period the tick's range in Sweden was estimated to have increased by 9.9%. Most of the range expansion occurred in North Sweden (north of 60°N where the tick's coverage area doubled from 12.5% in the early 1990s to 26.8% in 2008. Moreover, according to the

  18. Assessment of a climate model to reproduce rainfall variability and extremes over Southern Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, C. J. R.; Kniveton, D. R.; Layberry, R.

    2010-01-01

    It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The sub-continent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of ability of a state of the art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite-derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infrared Rainfall Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993 to 2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1° longitude/latitude. This paper concentrates primarily on the ability of the model to simulate the spatial and temporal patterns of present-day rainfall variability over southern Africa and is not intended to discuss possible future changes in climate as these have been documented elsewhere. Simulations of current climate from the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model, in both regional and global mode, are firstly compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Secondly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes is assessed, again by a comparison with

  19. Non–stationarity in annual maxima rainfall across Australia – implications for Intensity–Frequency–Duration (IFD relationships

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. C. Verdon-Kidd

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall Intensity–Frequency–Duration (IFD relationships are commonly required for the design and planning of water supply and management systems around the world. Currently IFD information is based on the "stationary climate assumption" – that weather at any point in time will vary randomly and that the underlying climate statistics (including both averages and extremes will remain constant irrespective of the period of record. However, the validity of this assumption has been questioned over the last 15 years, particularly in Australia, following an improved understanding of the significant impact of climate variability and change occurring on interannual to multidecadal timescales. This paper provides evidence of non-stationarity in annual maxima rainfall timeseries using 96 daily rainfall stations and 66 sub-daily rainfall stations across Australia. Further, the effect of non-stationarity on the resulting IFD estimates are explored for three long-term sub-daily rainfall records (Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne utilising insights into multidecadal climate variability. It is demonstrated that IFD relationships may under- or over-estimate the design rainfall depending on the length and time period spanned by the rainfall data used to develop the IFD information. It is recommended that non-stationarity in annual maxima rainfall be explicitly considered and appropriately treated in the ongoing revisions of Engineers Australia's guide to estimating and utilising IFD information, "Australian Rainfall and Runoff", and that clear guidance needs to be provided on how to deal with the issue of non-stationarity of extreme events (irrespective of whether that non-stationarity is due to natural or anthropogenic climate change. The findings of our study also have important implications for other regions of the world that exhibit considerable hydroclimatic variability and where IFD information is based on relatively short data sets.

  20. Updating Rainfall Erosivity Map of the Mediterranean Region in Turkey by RUSLE-R and GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topcu, P.; Deviren Saygin, S.; Erpul, G.; Bayramin, I.

    2009-04-01

    To understand and analyze rainfall variability is a need for evaluating the erosive potential of rainfall in terms of space and time. In this study of revising rainfall erosivity index by RUSLE-R equation and recent data set, we focus in particular on the semi-arid areas of the Mediterranean Region, Turkey, where soil erosion is one of the major threats to soil and water resources and where soil erosion is as acute as or more severe than those in other Mediterranean countries. The primary data set included electronically stored daily rainfall records of the Turkish State Meteorological Service for the years from 1993 to 2004 at the 38 climate stations located in the Mediterranean Region. After analyzing the time-depth records of each independent erosive rainfall, RUSLE-R was calculated as the product of average rainfall energy and a 30-min maximum intensity of rainfall. Point RUSLE-R values as long-term averages obtained for each climate station were interpolated using tri-variate functions of longitude, latitude, and elevation to have a map. Summarily, by integrating Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the region and Geographic Information Systems (GIS), the rainfall erosivity map of the Mediterranean Region in Turkey was updated. Doubtlessly, this study would provide data not only for climate studies but also opportunities for integration of climate data with properties of soil, topography and land use to understand complicated hydrologic processes at watershed and regional scales and would be effectively employed to take soil and water conservation measures. Key words: rainfall erosivity index, RUSLE prediction technology, soil erosion, GIS. Acknowledgement Authors gratefully acknowledge "The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey", TUBITAK, for support within project of CAYDAG-107Y155.

  1. Rainfall erosivity in catchments contaminated with fallout from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laceby, J. Patrick; Chartin, Caroline; Evrard, Olivier; Onda, Yuichi; Garcia-Sanchez, Laurent; Cerdan, Olivier

    2016-06-01

    The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (FDNPP) accident in March 2011 resulted in the fallout of significant quantities of radiocesium over the Fukushima region. After reaching the soil surface, radiocesium is quickly bound to fine soil particles. Thereafter, rainfall and snowmelt run-off events transfer particle-bound radiocesium downstream. Characterizing the precipitation regime of the fallout-impacted region is thus important for understanding post-deposition radiocesium dynamics. Accordingly, 10 min (1995-2015) and daily precipitation data (1977-2015) from 42 meteorological stations within a 100 km radius of the FDNPP were analyzed. Monthly rainfall erosivity maps were developed to depict the spatial heterogeneity of rainfall erosivity for catchments entirely contained within this radius. The mean average precipitation in the region surrounding the FDNPP is 1420 mm yr-1 (SD 235) with a mean rainfall erosivity of 3696 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 yr-1 (SD 1327). Tropical cyclones contribute 22 % of the precipitation (422 mm yr-1) and 40 % of the rainfall erosivity (1462 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 yr-1 (SD 637)). The majority of precipitation (60 %) and rainfall erosivity (82 %) occurs between June and October. At a regional scale, rainfall erosivity increases from the north to the south during July and August, the most erosive months. For the remainder of the year, this gradient occurs mostly from northwest to southeast. Relief features strongly influence the spatial distribution of rainfall erosivity at a smaller scale, with the coastal plains and coastal mountain range having greater rainfall erosivity than the inland Abukuma River valley. Understanding these patterns, particularly their spatial and temporal (both inter- and intraannual) variation, is important for contextualizing soil and particle-bound radiocesium transfers in the Fukushima region. Moreover, understanding the impact of tropical cyclones will be important for managing sediment and sediment-bound contaminant

  2. Post processing rainfall forecasts from numerical weather prediction models for short term streamflow forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. E. Robertson

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Sub-daily ensemble rainfall forecasts that are bias free and reliably quantify forecast uncertainty are critical for flood and short-term ensemble streamflow forecasting. Post processing of rainfall predictions from numerical weather prediction models is typically required to provide rainfall forecasts with these properties. In this paper, a new approach to generate ensemble rainfall forecasts by post processing raw NWP rainfall predictions is introduced. The approach uses a simplified version of the Bayesian joint probability modelling approach to produce forecast probability distributions for individual locations and forecast periods. Ensemble forecasts with appropriate spatial and temporal correlations are then generated by linking samples from the forecast probability distributions using the Schaake shuffle. The new approach is evaluated by applying it to post process predictions from the ACCESS-R numerical weather prediction model at rain gauge locations in the Ovens catchment in southern Australia. The joint distribution of NWP predicted and observed rainfall is shown to be well described by the assumed log-sinh transformed multivariate normal distribution. Ensemble forecasts produced using the approach are shown to be more skilful than the raw NWP predictions both for individual forecast periods and for cumulative totals throughout the forecast periods. Skill increases result from the correction of not only the mean bias, but also biases conditional on the magnitude of the NWP rainfall prediction. The post processed forecast ensembles are demonstrated to successfully discriminate between events and non-events for both small and large rainfall occurrences, and reliably quantify the forecast uncertainty. Future work will assess the efficacy of the post processing method for a wider range of climatic conditions and also investigate the benefits of using post processed rainfall forecast for flood and short term streamflow forecasting.

  3. Two years of country-wide rainfall maps employing cellular communication networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uijlenhoet, Remko; Overeem, Aart; Leijnse, Hidde; Rios Gaona, Manuel Felipe

    2014-05-01

    Accurate rainfall observations with high spatial and temporal resolutions are needed for hydrological applications, agriculture, meteorology, and climate monitoring. However, the majority of the land surface of the earth lacks accurate rainfall information and the number of rain gauges is even severely declining in Europe, South-America, and Africa. This calls for alternative sources of rainfall information. Various studies have shown that microwave links from operational cellular telecommunication networks may be employed for rainfall monitoring. Such networks cover 20% of the land surface of the earth and have a high density, especially in urban areas. The basic principle of rainfall monitoring using microwave links is as follows. Rainfall attenuates the electromagnetic signals transmitted from one telephone tower to another. By measuring the received power at one end of a microwave link as a function of time, the path-integrated attenuation due to rainfall can be calculated. Previous studies have shown that average rainfall intensities over the length of a link can be derived from the path-integrated attenuation. This is particularly interesting for those countries where few surface rainfall observations are available. Here we present almost two years of country-wide rainfall maps employing cellular communication networks. A data set from a commercial microwave link network over the Netherlands is analyzed, containing data from an unprecedented number of links (~ 2000) covering the land surface of the Netherlands (35500 square kilometers). This data set almost completely covers the years 2011 and 2012. Fifteen-minute and daily rainfall maps (1 km spatial resolution) are derived from the microwave link data and compared to maps from a gauge-adjusted radar data set. The performance of the rainfall retrieval algorithm will be studied, particularly differences in time and space. Time series of air temperature and snow from automatic weather stations, operated by the

  4. Development of a censored modelling approach for stochastic estimation of rainfall extremes at fine temporal scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, David; Onof, Christian; Bernardara, Pietro

    2016-04-01

    heavy rainfall. Tipping bucket raingauge data aggregated to a minimum temporal resolution of 15 minutes have been identified throughout the UK, and the longest records (minimum 30 years duration) have been selected for analysis. Rainfall extremes are estimated for a range of annual exceedance probabilities to a minimum 1e-4 (10,000 year return period) by simulating up to 100,000 years of rainfall and sampling annual maxima and peaks over high threshold. A range of low thresholds are tested for the censored modelling, as well as seasonally varying thresholds, and the results compared with comparable estimates from extreme value analysis. References: Centre for Ecology & Hydrology. (2015) Anonymous's blog. North West floods - Hydrological update. Weblog [Posted 08/12/2015 - 14:18]. Available from: http://www.ceh.ac.uk/news-and-media/blogs/north-west-floods-hydrological-update [Accessed 04/01/2016].

  5. Predicting Family Poverty and Other Disadvantaged Conditions for Child Rearing from Childhood Aggression and Social Withdrawal: A 30-Year Longitudinal Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serbin, Lisa A.; Temcheff, Caroline E.; Cooperman, Jessica M.; Stack, Dale M.; Ledingham, Jane; Schwartzman, Alex E.

    2011-01-01

    This 30-year longitudinal study examined pathways from problematic childhood behavior patterns to future disadvantaged conditions for family environment and child rearing in adulthood. Participants were mothers (n = 328) and fathers (n = 222) with lower income backgrounds participating in the ongoing Concordia Longitudinal Risk Project. Structural…

  6. 46 CFR 31.10-21a - Periodic gauging of tank vessel midbodies more than 30 years old that carry certain oil cargoes...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... years old that carry certain oil cargoes-TB/ALL. 31.10-21a Section 31.10-21a Shipping COAST GUARD... gauging of tank vessel midbodies more than 30 years old that carry certain oil cargoes—TB/ALL. (a) As used... years old. (2) Regaugings: (i) Midbodies of double hull tank vessels, or single hull tank vessels...

  7. High-affinity human leucocyte antigen class I binding variola-derived peptides induce CD4(+) T cell responses more than 30 years post-vaccinia virus vaccination

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, M.; Tang, Sheila Tuyet; Lund, Ole;

    2009-01-01

    Interferon-gamma secreting T lymphocytes against pox virus-derived synthetic 9-mer peptides were tested by enzyme-linked immunospot in peripheral blood of individuals vaccinated with vaccinia virus more than 30 years ago. The peptides were characterized biochemically as high-affinity human...

  8. Protection of Military Personnel Against Vector-Borne Diseases: A Review of Collaborative Work of the Australian and US Military Over the Last 30 Years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frances, Stephen P; Edstein, Michael D; Debboun, Mustapha; Shanks, G Dennis

    2016-01-01

    Australian and US military medical services have collaborated since World War II to minimize vector-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue, and scrub typhus. In this review, collaboration over the last 30 years is discussed. The collaborative projects and exchange scientist programs have resulted in mutually beneficial outcomes in the fields of drug development and personal protection measures against vector-borne diseases.

  9. Attributes for MRB_E2RF1 Catchments by Major River Basins in the Conterminous United States: 30-Year Average Annual Precipitation, 1971-2000

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This tabular data set represents the 30-year (1971-2000) catchment-average total annual precipitation in millimeters multiplied by 100 compiled for every MRB_E2RF1...

  10. Analysis of meteorological trigger conditions for torrential processes on a daily time scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braun, Martin; Kaitna, Roland

    2016-04-01

    Floods, intensive bedload transport, debris floods, and debris flows represent a severe hazard in torrent catchments in Alpine regions. These processes are expected to be mostly triggered by intensive, localized thunderstorm events or long lasting low-pressure systems. For forecasting debris flow hazards and estimation of potential changes due to climate change, identification of meteorological trigger conditions is of interest. In this study we investigate meteorological trigger conditions of torrential events recorded in Austria. The analysis is based on daily rainfall and temperature data. In total 7617 events and 1032 data-sets from meteorological stations, distributed over a region of approximately 80,000 km², and dating back until the year 1874, are available for analysis. Nearest stations to event as well as a weighted distance approach were combined with a Bayesian analysis to determine typical trigger conditions in different alpine settings. While according to Bayesian analysis the majority of debris flows is likely to be triggered by short rainfall events with an intensity of 60-70 mm/day, the signal for debris floods is less clear. Thresholds for debris floods tend to show higher rainfall intensities of 70-100 mm/day as prerequisites, but also a significant amount was caused by longer rainfall durations up to two days. Furthermore, the total event rainfall plays a higher role compared to debris flows. Intensive bedload transport shows a more complex relationship with a typical triggering event rainfall between 150 and 200 mm and rainfall intensities exceeding 100 mm/day. Flood events are mainly caused by a complex combination of influencing factors with different combinations of triggering event rainfall, high rainfall intensities and rainfall duration. The results of our study contribute to an improved understanding of torrential activity in the Alps and examine the influence of rainfall conditions on different types of torrential events.

  11. A simple simulation approach to generate complex rainfall fields conditioned by elevation: example of the eastern Mediterranean region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oriani, Fabio; Ohana-Levi, Noa; Straubhaar, Julien; Renard, Philippe; Karnieli, Arnon; Mariethoz, Grégoire; Morin, Efrat; Marra, Francesco

    2016-04-01

    Stochastically generating realistic rainfall fields is useful to study the uncertainty related to catchment recharge and its propagation to distributed hydrological models. To this end, it is critical to use weather radar images as training data, being the single most informative source for rainfall spatial heterogeneity. Generating realistic simulations is particularly important in regions like the eastern Mediterranean, where the synoptic conditions can lead to rainfall fields presenting various morphology, anisotropy and non-stationarity. The Direct Sampling (DS) technique [Mariethoz2010] is proposed here as a stochastic generator of spatial daily rainfall fields relying on the simulation of radar imagery. The technique is based on resampling of a training data set (in this case, a stack of radar images) and the generation of similar patterns to the ones found in the data. The strong point of DS, which makes it an attractive simulation approach for rainfall, is its capability to preserve the high-order statistical features present in the training image (e.g., rainfall cell shape, spatial non-stationarity) with minimal parameterization. Moreover, factors influencing rainfall, like elevation, can be used as conditioning variables, without the need of a complex statistical dependence model. A DS setup for radar image simulation is presented and tested for the simulation of daily rainfall fields using a 10-year radar-image record from the central region of Israel. Using a synoptic weather classification to train the model, the algorithm can generate realistic spatial fields for different rainfall types, preserving the variability and the covariance structure of the reference reasonably well. Moreover, the simulation is conditioned using the digital elevation model to preserve the complex relation between rainfall intensity and altitude that is characteristic for this region. [Mariethoz2010] G. Mariethoz, P. Renard, and J. Straubhaar. The direct sampling method to

  12. Assessment of probabilistic areal reduction factors of precipitations for the entire French territory with gridded rainfall data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fouchier, Catherine; Maire, Alexis; Arnaud, Patrick; Cantet, Philippe; Odry, Jean

    2016-04-01

    The starting point of our study was the availability of maps of rainfall quantiles available for the entire French mainland territory at the spatial resolution of 1 km². These maps display the rainfall amounts estimated for different rainfall durations (from 15 minutes to 72 hours) and different return periods (from 2 years up to 1 000 years). They are provided by a regionalized stochastic hourly point rainfall generator, the SHYREG method which was previously developed by Irstea (Arnaud et al., 2007; Cantet and Arnaud, 2014). Being calibrated independently on numerous raingauges data (with an average density across the country of 1 raingauge per 200 km²), this method suffers from a limitation common to point-process rainfall generators: it can only reproduce point rainfall patterns and has no capacity to generate rainfall fields. It can't hence provide areal rainfall quantiles, the estimation of the latter being however needed for the construction of design rainfall or for the diagnostic of observed events. One means of bridging this gap between our local rainfall quantiles and areal rainfall quantiles is given by the concept of probabilistic areal reduction factors of rainfall (ARF) as defined by Omolayo (1993). This concept enables to estimate areal rainfall of a particular frequency within a certain amount of time from point rainfalls of the same frequency and duration. Assessing such ARF for the whole French territory is of particular interest since it should allow us to compute areal rainfall quantiles, and eventually watershed rainfall quantiles, by using the already available grids of statistical point rainfall of the SHYREG method. Our purpose was then to assess these ARF thanks to long time-series of spatial rainfall data. We have used two sets of rainfall fields: i) hourly rainfall fields from a 10-year reference database of Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) over France (Tabary et al., 2012), ii) daily rainfall fields resulting from a 53-year

  13. Subseasonal-to-interannual variability of rainfall over New Caledonia (SW Pacific)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moron, Vincent; Barbero, Renaud; Robertson, Andrew W.

    2016-04-01

    Daily rainfall occurrence and amount at 55 stations over New Caledonia (NC, 20°S, 166°E) are examined throughout the calendar year during 1980-2010 using a Hidden Markov Model (HMM). Daily rainfall variability is described in terms of six discrete rainfall states identified by the HMM. Three states are interpreted as trade wind regimes associated with persistent low level anticyclonic conditions and weak to strong easterlies. The most prevalent state (state 1; 36 % of days) is dry everywhere and is characterized by an elongated anticyclone centered around Australia; NC is located on the eastern edge of this anticyclone. This state is predominant from mid-May to mid-December and peaks in September. The second most prevalent state (state 2; 27 % of days) and the last trade regime (state 4; 12 % of days) are most frequent in austral summer. States 2 and 4 are associated with the subtropical anticyclone centered south of NC, close to its climatological location in austral summer, and light (state 2) to moderate (state 4) rainfall mostly along the windward coast. A distinct state (state 3; 11 % of days) is mostly associated with wintertime extratropical eastward traveling troughs between New Caledonia and New Zealand, inducing light rainfall over the SW of the main island of New Caledonia. The two last states 5 and 6 are infrequent (skill peaks in September-November.

  14. Introducing a rainfall compound distribution model based on weather patterns sub-sampling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Garavaglia

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a probabilistic model for daily rainfall, using sub-sampling based on meteorological circulation. We classified eight typical but contrasted synoptic situations (weather patterns for France and surrounding areas, using a "bottom-up" approach, i.e. from the shape of the rain field to the synoptic situations described by geopotential fields. These weather patterns (WP provide a discriminating variable that is consistent with French climatology, and allows seasonal rainfall records to be split into more homogeneous sub-samples, in term of meteorological genesis.

    First results show how the combination of seasonal and WP sub-sampling strongly influences the identification of the asymptotic behaviour of rainfall probabilistic models. Furthermore, with this level of stratification, an asymptotic exponential behaviour of each sub-sample appears as a reasonable hypothesis. This first part is illustrated with two daily rainfall records from SE of France.

    The distribution of the multi-exponential weather patterns (MEWP is then defined as the composition, for a given season, of all WP sub-sample marginal distributions, weighted by the relative frequency of occurrence of each WP. This model is finally compared to Exponential and Generalized Pareto distributions, showing good features in terms of robustness and accuracy. These final statistical results are computed from a wide dataset of 478 rainfall chronicles spread on the southern half of France. All these data cover the 1953–2005 period.

  15. Urban rainfall estimation employing commercial microwave links

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overeem, Aart; Leijnse, Hidde; Uijlenhoet, Remko; ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire

    2015-04-01

    Urban areas often lack rainfall information. To increase the number of rainfall observations in cities, microwave links from operational cellular telecommunication networks may be employed. Although this new potential source of rainfall information has been shown to be promising, its quality needs to be demonstrated more extensively. In the Rain Sense kickstart project of the Amsterdam Institute for Advanced Metropolitan Solutions (AMS), sensors and citizens are preparing Amsterdam for future weather. Part of this project is rainfall estimation using new measurement techniques. Innovative sensing techniques will be utilized such as rainfall estimation from microwave links, umbrellas for weather sensing, low-cost sensors at lamp posts and in drainage pipes for water level observation. These will be combined with information provided by citizens in an active way through smartphone apps and in a passive way through social media posts (Twitter, Flickr etc.). Sensor information will be integrated, visualized and made accessible to citizens to help raise citizen awareness of urban water management challenges and promote resilience by providing information on how citizens can contribute in addressing these. Moreover, citizens and businesses can benefit from reliable weather information in planning their social and commercial activities. In the end city-wide high-resolution rainfall maps will be derived, blending rainfall information from microwave links and weather radars. This information will be used for urban water management. This presentation focuses on rainfall estimation from commercial microwave links. Received signal levels from tens of microwave links within the Amsterdam region (roughly 1 million inhabitants) in the Netherlands are utilized to estimate rainfall with high spatial and temporal resolution. Rainfall maps will be presented and compared to a gauge-adjusted radar rainfall data set. Rainfall time series from gauge(s), radars and links will be compared.

  16. Design rainfall calculation for un-gauged basin%无资料地区设计暴雨计算研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    栗雪峰; 刘俊萍

    2014-01-01

    山西云首水库所在的小流域无实测暴雨资料,水库工程设计时需要进行设计暴雨计算以推求设计洪水。参考了当地水文手册和水文图集,计算出5种标准历时的设计点雨量,通过点面折算系数得到设计面雨量,再采用暴雨公式将标准历时的设计面雨量转化为任一历时的设计雨量。计算了设计暴雨的日雨型和时雨型,并借助暴雨公式确定了主雨历时和雨量,为该区域设计洪水计算提供了不同频率的设计暴雨和暴雨时程分配资料。%There is no measured rainfall data in the reservoir area of Yunshou Reservoir in Shanxi Province. In order to calcu-late design flood, the rainfall calculation is needed. The design point rainfalls of 5 standard durations are calculated by referring the local hydrology manuals and hydrological atlas and then the design areal rainfall is obtained by point-surface conversion coef-ficient and the design areal rainfalls of standard durations are transformed into design areal rainfall of any duration by rainfall for-mula. The calculation of daily rainfall pattern and hourly rainfall pattern of design rainfall are carried out. The main rainfall dura-tions and main rainfalls are determined by rainfall formula, which provide the design rainfall and distribution of rainfall pattern of different frequency for the design flood calculation.

  17. A Bayesian beta distribution model for estimating rainfall IDF curves in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Carlos H. R.; Kwon, Hyun-Han; Kim, Jin-Young

    2016-09-01

    The estimation of intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves for rainfall data comprises a classical task in hydrology studies to support a variety of water resources projects, including urban drainage and the design of flood control structures. In a changing climate, however, traditional approaches based on historical records of rainfall and on the stationary assumption can be inadequate and lead to poor estimates of rainfall intensity quantiles. Climate change scenarios built on General Circulation Models offer a way to access and estimate future changes in spatial and temporal rainfall patterns at the daily scale at the utmost, which is not as fine temporal resolution as required (e.g. hours) to directly estimate IDF curves. In this paper we propose a novel methodology based on a four-parameter beta distribution to estimate IDF curves conditioned on the observed (or simulated) daily rainfall, which becomes the time-varying upper bound of the updated nonstationary beta distribution. The inference is conducted in a Bayesian framework that provides a better way to take into account the uncertainty in the model parameters when building the IDF curves. The proposed model is tested using rainfall data from four stations located in South Korea and projected climate change Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios 6 and 8.5 from the Met Office Hadley Centre HadGEM3-RA model. The results show that the developed model fits the historical data as good as the traditional Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution but is able to produce future IDF curves that significantly differ from the historically based IDF curves. The proposed model predicts for the stations and RCPs scenarios analysed in this work an increase in the intensity of extreme rainfalls of short duration with long return periods.

  18. Evaluation of global rainfall Measurement for Hydrological Applications in West Africa : sensitivity tests in Benin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viarre, J.; Gosset, M.; Peugeot, C.

    2011-12-01

    We carried out an evaluation of currently available -real time or post-calibrated- rainfall products in West Africa. The work is oriented towards highlighting their skills and relevance from the view point of a hydrological end-user. The study is based on the densily instrumented meso-scale basins from the AMMA-CATCH hydrometeorological observing system. On these sites long term observations of the various term of the continental water budget and hydrological processes studies have been carried out for more than a decade. We focus here on the upper Oueme basin site in Benin (Sudanese climate - 1200 mm annual rainfall). A distributed hydrological model, developed in this framework is used to illustrate the effects of satellite based rainfall errors or uncertainty on the simulated outflow. Non linearities cause the rainfall bias to be enhanced through propagation in the model, leading to strong biases in the outflow. In addition to the biases the model response is very sensitive to the distortion in the rainfall intensities probability distribution, that some rainfall products exhibit. The AMMA-CATCH densified gages networks and hydrometeorological measurements will be integrated in the MeghaTropiques ground validation plan and used to asses the quality of MT products at the one degree one daily scale and below.

  19. Determination of seasonal rainfall variability, onset and cessation in semi-arid Tharaka district, Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Recha, C. W.; Makokha, G. L.; Traore, P. S.; Shisanya, C.; Lodoun, T.; Sako, A.

    2012-05-01

    The study quantified rainfall variability for March-May (MAM) and October-December (OND) seasons in Tharaka district, Kenya. The parameters analysed were inter-annual variability of seasonal rainfall, onset and cessation using daily rainfall data in three agro-ecological zones' stations. Percentage mean cumulative method was used to determine onset and cessation, and seasonal variability was estimated using rainfall variability indices. Although both seasons are highly variable, OND has been persistently below mean over time while MAM shows high within-season variability. Despite the near uniformity in the mean onset and cessation dates, the former is highly variable on an inter-annual scale. The two rainfall seasons are inherently dissimilar and therefore require specific cropping in agro-ecological zone LM4 and LM4-5. It is possible that farmers in IL5 are missing an opportunity by under-utilising MAM rainfall. The results should be incorporated in implications of climate variability and vulnerability assessment in semi-arid Tharaka district.

  20. Rainfall and temperatures during the 1991/92 drought in the Kruger National Park

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Zambatis

    1995-09-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall and temperatures during the 1991/92 drought, the severest in the recorded history of the Kruger National Park (KNP, are described. Mean total rainfall for the KNP was 235.6 mm (44.1 of the long- term mean, with a median of 239.9 mm. The num- ber of days on which rain occurred also decreased significantly from a mean annual total of 48.3 to a mean of 24.2 in 1991/92. Daily maximum, minimum and average temperatures for some months increased significantly, as did the number of days within certain maximum temperature range classes.

  1. An Analysis of Thermally-Related Surface Rainfall Budgets Associated with Convective and Stratiform Rainfall

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHOU Yushu; Xiaofan LI

    2011-01-01

    Both water vapor and heat processes play key roles in producing surface rainfall.While the water vapor effects of sea surface temperature and cloud radiative and microphysical processes on surface rainfall have been investigated in previous studies,the thermal effects on rainfall are analyzed in this study using a series of two-dimensional equilibrium cloud-resolving model experiments forced by zonally-uniform,constant,large-scale zonal wind and zero large-scale vertical velocity.The analysis of thermally-related surface rainfall budget reveals that the model domain mean surface rain rate is primarily associated with the mean infrared cooling rate.Convective rainfall and transport of hydrometeor concentration from convective regions to raining stratiform regions corresponds to the heat divergence over convective regions,whereas stratiform rainfall corresponds to the transport of hydrometeor concentration from convective regions and heat divergence over raining stratiform regions.The heat divergence over convective regions is mainly balanced by the heat convergence over rainfall-free regions,which is,in turn,offset by the radiative cooling over rainfall-free regions.The sensitivity experiments of rainfall to the effects of sea surface temperature and cloud radiative and microphysical processes show that the sea surface temperature and cloud processes affect convective rainfall through the changes in infrared cooling rate over rainfall-free regions and transport rate of heat from convective regions to rainfall-free regions.

  2. Downscaling approach to develop future sub-daily IDF relations for Canberra Airport Region, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herath, H. M. S. M.; Sarukkalige, P. R.; Nguyen, V. T. V.

    2015-06-01

    Downscaling of climate projections is the most adopted method to assess the impacts of climate change at regional and local scale. In the last decade, downscaling techniques which provide reasonable improvement to resolution of General Circulation Models' (GCMs) output are developed in notable manner. Most of these techniques are limited to spatial downscaling of GCMs' output and still there is a high demand to develop temporal downscaling approaches. As the main objective of this study, combined approach of spatial and temporal downscaling is developed to improve the resolution of rainfall predicted by GCMs. Canberra airport region is subjected to this study and the applicability of proposed downscaling approach is evaluated for Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and Darwin regions. Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) is used to spatial downscaling and numerical model based on scaling invariant concept is used to temporal downscaling of rainfalls. National Centre of Environmental Prediction (NCEP) data is used in SDSM model calibration and validation. Regression based bias correction function is used to improve the accuracy of downscaled annual maximum rainfalls using HadCM3-A2. By analysing the non-central moments of observed rainfalls, single time regime (from 30 min to 24 h) is identified which exist scaling behaviour and it is used to estimate the sub daily extreme rainfall depths from daily downscaled rainfalls. Finally, as the major output of this study, Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relations are developed for the future periods of 2020s, 2050s and 2080s in the context of climate change.

  3. New daily persistent headache

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alok Tyagi

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available New daily persistent headache (NDPH is a chronic headache developing in a person who does not have a past history of headaches. The headache begins acutely and reaches its peak within 3 days. It is important to exclude secondary causes, particularly headaches due to alterations in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF pressure and volume. A significant proportion of NDPH sufferers may have intractable headaches that are refractory to treatment. The condition is best viewed as a syndrome rather than a diagnosis. The headache can mimic chronic migraine and chronic tension-type headache, and it is also important to exclude secondary causes, particularly headaches due to alterations in CSF pressure and volume. A large proportion of NDPH sufferers have migrainous features to their headache and should be managed with treatments used for treating migraine. A small group of NDPH sufferers may have intractable headaches that are refractory to treatment.

  4. Physics in daily life

    CERN Document Server

    Hermans, Jo

    2012-01-01

    This book provides answers to everyday questions that any curious mind would ask, like : Why is water blue ? What makes ice so slippery ? How do we localize sound ? How do we keep our body temperature so nice and constant ? How do we survive the sauna at 90 C ? Why do large raindrops fall faster than small ones, and what exactly is their speed ? The answers are given in an accessible and playful way, and are illustrated with funny cartoons. In this book forty "Physics in Daily Life" columns, which appeared earlier in Europhysics News, are brought together in one inspiring volume. As well as being a source of enjoyment and satisfying insights for anyone with some physics background, it also serves as a very good teaching tool for science students. This booklet is a feast of erudition and humour.

  5. Spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall across Ganjiang River Basin in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Yang; Zhang, Xiang; Wan, Hui; Wang, Yeqiao; Liu, Cheng; Xia, Jun

    2016-04-01

    The hydrological variations of Ganjiang River Basin have significant influence on the ecological environment of Poyang Lake, which is one of the largest freshwater lake and wetland in the world. This study analyzed the spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall across Ganjiang River Basin. The analyses include annual total rainfall amount (ATRA), annual total rainy day (ATRD) and annual mean daily rainfall intensity (AMDRI). To detect changes in the hydrological trends, data from 19 rainfall stations from 1953 to 2013 were used in the analyses. First, quality control and homogeneity detection was carried out to examine the annual rainfall series. Second, the spatial correlation analysis was used to identify the spatial relationship among the measurements from different stations. Finally, the statistics of coefficient of variation (CV) and average were used to analyze the interannual variation trend. The modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) trend test method was used to detect the temporal characteristics of rainfall. The results include: (1) Some outliers were detected and corrected. (2) The correlation of ATRA and ATRD series of all the stations had lower spatial variability while the AMDRI series of all the stations had higher spatial variability. On the other hand, the ATRA, ATRD and AMDRI series of single stations show similar spatial variability and the influencing radius of the rainfall events was less than 50 km. (3) the rainfall at the northern and southern parts of the basin had smaller CV. Further, by applying the MMK test method to the ATRA, ATRD, and AMDRI series, the ATRA series has an increasing trend which is opposite to that of the ATRD series. The increasing trend in the ATRA series also led to the increasing trend in the AMDRI series. These stations are mainly in central and northern parts of the basin which are more likely to experience droughts and floods. Thus, for the central and northern parts of the basin, they should receive particular

  6. Rainfall estimation by inverting SMOS soil moisture estimates: A comparison of different methods over Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brocca, Luca; Pellarin, Thierry; Crow, Wade T.; Ciabatta, Luca; Massari, Christian; Ryu, Dongryeol; Su, Chun-Hsu; Rüdiger, Christoph; Kerr, Yann

    2016-10-01

    Remote sensing of soil moisture has reached a level of maturity and accuracy for which the retrieved products can be used to improve hydrological and meteorological applications. In this study, the soil moisture product from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite is used for improving satellite rainfall estimates obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission multisatellite precipitation analysis product (TMPA) using three different "bottom up" techniques: SM2RAIN, Soil Moisture Analysis Rainfall Tool, and Antecedent Precipitation Index Modification. The implementation of these techniques aims at improving the well-known "top down" rainfall estimate derived from TMPA products (version 7) available in near real time. Ground observations provided by the Australian Water Availability Project are considered as a separate validation data set. The three algorithms are calibrated against the gauge-corrected TMPA reanalysis product, 3B42, and used for adjusting the TMPA real-time product, 3B42RT, using SMOS soil moisture data. The study area covers the entire Australian continent, and the analysis period ranges from January 2010 to November 2013. Results show that all the SMOS-based rainfall products improve the performance of 3B42RT, even at daily time scale (differently from previous investigations). The major improvements are obtained in terms of estimation of accumulated rainfall with a reduction of the root-mean-square error of more than 25%. Also, in terms of temporal dynamic (correlation) and rainfall detection (categorical scores) the SMOS-based products provide slightly better results with respect to 3B42RT, even though the relative performance between the methods is not always the same. The strengths and weaknesses of each algorithm and the spatial variability of their performances are identified in order to indicate the ways forward for this promising research activity. Results show that the integration of bottom up and top down approaches

  7. Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Implications of Contrasting Trends in the Spatial Variability of Means and Extremes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Subimal Ghosh

    Full Text Available India's agricultural output, economy, and societal well-being are strappingly dependent on the stability of summer monsoon rainfall, its variability and extremes. Spatial aggregate of intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events over Central India are significantly increasing, while at local scale they are spatially non-uniform with increasing spatial variability. The reasons behind such increase in spatial variability of extremes are poorly understood and the trends in mean monsoon rainfall have been greatly overlooked. Here, by using multi-decadal gridded daily rainfall data over entire India, we show that the trend in spatial variability of mean monsoon rainfall is decreasing as exactly opposite to that of extremes. The spatial variability of extremes is attributed to the spatial variability of the convective rainfall component. Contrarily, the decrease in spatial variability of the mean rainfall over India poses a pertinent research question on the applicability of large scale inter-basin water transfer by river inter-linking to address the spatial variability of available water in India. We found a significant decrease in the monsoon rainfall over major water surplus river basins in India. Hydrological simulations using a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC model also revealed that the water yield in surplus river basins is decreasing but it is increasing in deficit basins. These findings contradict the traditional notion of dry areas becoming drier and wet areas becoming wetter in response to climate change in India. This result also calls for a re-evaluation of planning for river inter-linking to supply water from surplus to deficit river basins.

  8. Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) rainfall curves, for data series and climate projection in African cities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Paola, Francesco; Giugni, Maurizio; Topa, Maria Elena; Bucchignani, Edoardo

    2014-01-01

    Changes in the hydrologic cycle due to increase in greenhouse gases cause variations in intensity, duration, and frequency of precipitation events. Quantifying the potential effects of climate change and adapting to them is one way to reduce urban vulnerability. Since rainfall characteristics are often used to design water structures, reviewing and updating rainfall characteristics (i.e., Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves) for future climate scenarios is necessary (Reg Environ Change 13(1 Supplement):25-33, 2013). The present study regards the evaluation of the IDF curves for three case studies: Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), Dar Es Salaam (Tanzania) and Douala (Cameroon). Starting from daily rainfall observed data, to define the IDF curves and the extreme values in a smaller time window (10', 30', 1 h, 3 h, 6 h, 12 h), disaggregation techniques of the collected data have been used, in order to generate a synthetic sequence of rainfall, with statistical properties similar to the recorded data. Then, the rainfall pattern of the three test cities was analyzed and IDF curves were evaluated. In order to estimate the contingent influence of climate change on the IDF curves, the described procedure was applied to the climate (rainfall) simulations over the time period 2010-2050, provided by CMCC (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici). The evaluation of the IDF curves allowed to frame the rainfall evolution of the three case studies, considering initially only historical data, then taking into account the climate projections, in order to verify the changes in rainfall patterns. The same set of data and projections was also used for evaluating the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP).

  9. Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Implications of Contrasting Trends in the Spatial Variability of Means and Extremes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Subimal; Vittal, H; Sharma, Tarul; Karmakar, Subhankar; Kasiviswanathan, K S; Dhanesh, Y; Sudheer, K P; Gunthe, S S

    2016-01-01

    India's agricultural output, economy, and societal well-being are strappingly dependent on the stability of summer monsoon rainfall, its variability and extremes. Spatial aggregate of intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events over Central India are significantly increasing, while at local scale they are spatially non-uniform with increasing spatial variability. The reasons behind such increase in spatial variability of extremes are poorly understood and the trends in mean monsoon rainfall have been greatly overlooked. Here, by using multi-decadal gridded daily rainfall data over entire India, we show that the trend in spatial variability of mean monsoon rainfall is decreasing as exactly opposite to that of extremes. The spatial variability of extremes is attributed to the spatial variability of the convective rainfall component. Contrarily, the decrease in spatial variability of the mean rainfall over India poses a pertinent research question on the applicability of large scale inter-basin water transfer by river inter-linking to address the spatial variability of available water in India. We found a significant decrease in the monsoon rainfall over major water surplus river basins in India. Hydrological simulations using a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model also revealed that the water yield in surplus river basins is decreasing but it is increasing in deficit basins. These findings contradict the traditional notion of dry areas becoming drier and wet areas becoming wetter in response to climate change in India. This result also calls for a re-evaluation of planning for river inter-linking to supply water from surplus to deficit river basins.

  10. A statistical technique for defining rainfall forecast probabilities in southern Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Husak, G. J.; Magadzire, T.

    2010-12-01

    Probabilistic forecasts are currently produced by many climate centers and by just as many processes. These models use a number of inputs to generate the probability of rainfall falling in the lower/middle/upper tercile (frequently termed “below-normal”/”normal”/”above-normal”) of the historical rainfall distribution. Generation of forecasts for a season may be the result of a dynamic climate model, a statistical model, a consensus of a panel of experts, or a combination of some of the afore-mentioned techniques, among others. This last method is one most commonly accepted in Southern Africa, resulting from the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF). While it has been noted that there is a reasonable chance of polygons having a dominant tercile of 60% probability or more, this has seldom been the case. Indeed, over the last four years, the SARCOF process has not produced any polygons with such a likelihood. In fact, the terciles in all of the SARCOFs since 2007 have been some combination of 40%, 35% and 25%. Discussions with SARCOF scientists suggests that the SARCOF process is currently using the probabilistic format to define relatively qualitative, rank-ordered outcomes in the format “most-likely”, “second-most likely” and “least likely” terciles. While this rank-ordered classification has its merits, it limits the sort of downstream quantitative statistical analysis that could potentially be of assistance to various decision makers. In this study we build a simple statistical model to analyze the probabilistic outcomes for the coming rainfall season, and analyze their resulting probabilities. The prediction model takes a similar approach to that already used in the SARCOF process: namely, using available historic rainfall data and SST information to create a linear regression between rainfall and SSTs, define a likely rainfall outcome, and analyze the cross-validation errors over the most recent 30 years. The cross

  11. Modelling persistence in annual Australia point rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. P. Whiting

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Annual rainfall time series for Sydney from 1859 to 1999 is analysed. Clear evidence of nonstationarity is presented, but substantial evidence for persistence or hidden states is more elusive. A test of the hypothesis that a hidden state Markov model reduces to a mixture distribution is presented. There is strong evidence of a correlation between the annual rainfall and climate indices. Strong evidence of persistence of one of these indices, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO, is presented together with a demonstration that this is better modelled by fractional differencing than by a hidden state Markov model. It is shown that conditioning the logarithm of rainfall on PDO, the Southern Oscillation index (SOI, and their interaction provides realistic simulation of rainfall that matches observed statistics. Similar simulation models are presented for Brisbane, Melbourne and Perth. Keywords: Hydrological persistence,hidden state Markov models, fractional differencing, PDO, SOI, Australian rainfall

  12. Weather radar rainfall data in urban hydrology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Einfalt, Thomas; Willems, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    Application of weather radar data in urban hydrological applications has evolved significantly during the past decade as an alternative to traditional rainfall observations with rain gauges. Advances in radar hardware, data processing, numerical models, and emerging fields within urban hydrology...... necessitate an updated review of the state of the art in such radar rainfall data and applications. Three key areas with significant advances over the past decade have been identified: (1) temporal and spatial resolution of rainfall data required for different types of hydrological applications, (2) rainfall...... estimation, radar data adjustment and data quality, and (3) nowcasting of radar rainfall and real-time applications. Based on these three fields of research, the paper provides recommendations based on an updated overview of shortcomings, gains, and novel developments in relation to urban hydrological...

  13. Edificio Daily Mirror

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Williams, Owen

    1963-07-01

    Full Text Available The building has 18 levels. The Press occupies the 4 basement floors. The ground floor is taken up with the entrance hall, and an indoor carriage way. A snack bar and the telephone operators are situated on the second floor. The production department and the medical services are located on the third storey, whilst the fourth is occupied by the offices and library. The fifth floor is the beginning of the higher section of the building. This floor and up to including the 11th floor are devoted to office space, except for the 10th storey, which contains the office apartments of the directors and the Council Chamber. Equipment related to various services of the building is housed on the 12th storey. Finally, this tall building constitutes a fine landmark in the London skyline. The Daily Mirror building is outstanding for the appropriate nature, the completeness and the quality of its installations, which thus provide the most widely read paper in the world with outstandingly efficient offices.Este edificio consta de 18 plantas. El cuerpo de Prensa se aloja en los cuatro sótanos; los vestíbulos de entrada y una calzada interior para vehículos se hallan en la planta baja; la primera alberga un snack-bar y centralita telefónica; la segunda, el departamento de producción y centro de asistencia médica, y la tercera, las oficinas y biblioteca principales. La cuarta planta señala el comienzo del bloque alto; esta planta, junto con las quinta, sexta, séptima, octava y décima, están dedicadas a oficinas. La novena contiene las oficinas-apartamentos de los directores y salas de Consejo, y la undécima, la maquinaria para las diversas instalaciones del edificio. La elevada torre constituye un grandioso hito de referencia en esta zona de Londres. El «Daily Mirror» se distingue por el acierto, número y perfección de sus instalaciones, que proporcionan, al periódico de mayor actualidad mundial, las más adecuadas y amplias oficinas modernas.

  14. Runoff and leaching of metolachlor from Mississippi River alluvial soil during seasons of average and below-average rainfall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Southwick, Lloyd M; Appelboom, Timothy W; Fouss, James L

    2009-02-25

    The movement of the herbicide metolachlor [2-chloro-N-(2-ethyl-6-methylphenyl)-N-(2-methoxy-1-methylethyl)acetamide] via runoff and leaching from 0.21 ha plots planted to corn on Mississippi River alluvial soil (Commerce silt loam) was measured for a 6-year period, 1995-2000. The first three years received normal rainfall (30 year average); the second three years experienced reduced rainfall. The 4-month periods prior to application plus the following 4 months after application were characterized by 1039 +/- 148 mm of rainfall for 1995-1997 and by 674 +/- 108 mm for 1998-2000. During the normal rainfall years 216 +/- 150 mm of runoff occurred during the study seasons (4 months following herbicide application), accompanied by 76.9 +/- 38.9 mm of leachate. For the low-rainfall years these amounts were 16.2 +/- 18.2 mm of runoff (92% less than the normal years) and 45.1 +/- 25.5 mm of leachate (41% less than the normal seasons). Runoff of metolachlor during the normal-rainfall seasons was 4.5-6.1% of application, whereas leaching was 0.10-0.18%. For the below-normal periods, these losses were 0.07-0.37% of application in runoff and 0.22-0.27% in leachate. When averages over the three normal and the three less-than-normal seasons were taken, a 35% reduction in rainfall was characterized by a 97% reduction in runoff loss and a 71% increase in leachate loss of metolachlor on a percent of application basis. The data indicate an increase in preferential flow in the leaching movement of metolachlor from the surface soil layer during the reduced rainfall periods. Even with increased preferential flow through the soil during the below-average rainfall seasons, leachate loss (percent of application) of the herbicide remained below 0.3%. Compared to the average rainfall seasons of 1995-1997, the below-normal seasons of 1998-2000 were characterized by a 79% reduction in total runoff and leachate flow and by a 93% reduction in corresponding metolachlor movement via these routes

  15. Assessment of satellite rainfall products over the Andean plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satgé, Frédéric; Bonnet, Marie-Paule; Gosset, Marielle; Molina, Jorge; Hernan Yuque Lima, Wilson; Pillco Zolá, Ramiro; Timouk, Franck; Garnier, Jérémie

    2016-01-01

    Nine satellite rainfall estimations (SREs) were evaluated for the first time over the South American Andean plateau watershed by comparison with rain gauge data acquired between 2005 and 2007. The comparisons were carried out at the annual, monthly and daily time steps. All SREs reproduce the salient pattern of the annual rain field, with a marked north-south gradient and a lighter east-west gradient. However, the intensity of the gradient differs among SREs: it is well marked in the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis 3B42 (TMPA-3B42), Precipitation Estimation from remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) and Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) products, and it is smoothed out in the Climate prediction center MORPHing (CMORPH) products. Another interesting difference among products is the contrast in rainfall amounts between the water surfaces (Lake Titicaca) and the surrounding land. Some products (TMPA-3B42, PERSIANN and GSMaP) show a contradictory rainfall deficit over Lake Titicaca, which may be due to the emissivity contrast between the lake and the surrounding lands and warm rain cloud processes. An analysis differentiating coastal Lake Titicaca from inland pixels confirmed this trend. The raw or Real Time (RT) products have strong biases over the study region. These biases are strongly positive for PERSIANN (above 90%), moderately positive for TMPA-3B42 (28%), strongly negative for CMORPH (- 42%) and moderately negative for GSMaP (- 18%). The biases are associated with a deformation of the rain rate frequency distribution: GSMaP underestimates the proportion of rainfall events for all rain rates; CMORPH overestimates the proportion of rain rates below 2 mm day- 1; and the other products tend to overestimate the proportion of moderate to high rain rates. These biases are greatly reduced by the gauge adjustment in the TMPA-3B42, PERSIANN and CMORPH products, whereas a

  16. Some characteristics of very heavy rainfall over Orissa during summer monsoon season

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    M Mohapatra; U C Mohanty

    2005-02-01

    Orissa is one of the most flood prone states of India. The floods in Orissa mostly occur during monsoon season due to very heavy rainfall caused by synoptic scale monsoon disturbances. Hence a study is undertaken to find out the characteristic features of very heavy rainfall (24 hours rainfall ≥ 125mm) over Orissa during summer monsoon season (June-September) by analysing 20 years (1980-1999) daily rainfall data of different stations in Orissa. The principal objective of this study is to find out the role of synoptic scale monsoon disturbances in spatial and temporal variability of very heavy rainfall over Orissa. Most of the very heavy rainfall events occur in July and August. The region, extending from central part of coastal Orissa in the southeast towards Sambalpur district in the northwest, experiences higher frequency and higher intensity of very heavy rainfall with less interannual variability. It is due to the fact that most of the causative synoptic disturbances like low pressure systems (LPS) develop over northwest (NW) Bay of Bengal with minimum interannual variation and the monsoon trough extends in west-northwesterly direction from the centre of the system. The very heavy rainfall occurs more frequently with less interannual variability on the western side of Eastern Ghat during all the months and the season except September. It occurs more frequently with less interannual variability on the eastern side of Eastern Ghat during September. The NW Bay followed by Gangetic West Bengal/Orissa is the most favourable region of LPS to cause very heavy rainfall over different parts of Orissa except eastern side of Eastern Ghat. The NW Bay and west central (WC) Bay are equally favourable regions of LPS to cause very heavy rainfall over eastern side of Eastern Ghat. The frequency of very heavy rain-fall does not show any significant trend in recent years over Orissa except some places in north-east Orissa which exhibit significant rising trend in all the

  17. A fuzzy-autoregressive model of daily river flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greco, Roberto

    2012-06-01

    A model for the identification of daily river flows has been developed, consisting of the combination of an autoregressive model with a fuzzy inference system. The AR model is devoted to the identification of base flow, supposed to be described by linear laws. The fuzzy model identifies the surface runoff, by applying a small set of linguistic statements, deriving from the knowledge of the physical features of the nonlinear rainfall-runoff transformation, to the inflow entering the river basin. The model has been applied to the identification of the daily flow series of river Volturno at Cancello-Arnone (Southern Italy), with a drainage basin of around 5560 km2, observed between 1970 and 1974. The inflow was estimated on the basis of daily precipitations registered during the same years at six rain gauges located throughout the basin. The first two years were used for model training, the remaining three for the validation. The obtained results show that the proposed model provides good predictions of either low river flows or high floods, although the analysis of residuals, which do not turn out to be a white noise, indicates that the cause and effect relationship between rainfall and runoff is not completely identified by the model.

  18. Pre-Hypertension among Young Adults (20-30 Years in Coastal Villages of Udupi District in Southern India: An Alarming Scenario.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanjay Kini

    Full Text Available According to Joint National Committee-7 (JNC-7 guidelines, a systolic blood pressure (SBP of 120 to 139 mm Hg and/or diastolic blood pressure (DBP of 80 to 89 mm Hg is considered as pre-hypertension. Existing evidence suggest that the cardiovascular morbidities are increasing among pre-hypertensive individuals compared to normal.To assess the magnitude and factors associated with pre-hypertension among young adults (20-30 years in coastal villages of Udupi Taluk (an area of land with a city or town that serves as its administrative centre and usually a number of villages, Udupi District, Karnataka state, India.Community based cross sectional study.6 (out of total 14 coastal villages of Udupi Taluk, Karnataka state, India.1,152 young adults (age group: 20-30 years selected by stratified random sampling in 6 coastal villages of Udupi Taluk, Karnataka state, India.A semi structured pre-tested questionnaire was used to elicit the details on socio-demographic variables, dietary habits, tobacco use, alcohol consumption, physical activity, family history of hypertension and stress levels. Anthropometric measurements and blood pressure were recorded according to standard protocols. Serum cholesterol was measured in a sub sample of the study population. Multivariate logistic regression was applied to identify the independent correlates of pre-hypertension among young adults (20-30 years.Prevalence, Odds ratio (OR and adjusted (adj OR for pre-hypertension among young adults (20-30 years.The prevalence of pre-hypertension in the study population was 45.2% (95%CI: 42.4-48. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that age group of 25-30 years (adj OR: 4.25, 95% CI: 2.99-6.05, white collared (adj OR: 2.29, 95% CI: 1.08-4.85 and skilled occupation (adj OR: 3.24, 95% CI: 1.64-6.42, students (adj OR: 2.46, 95% CI: 1.22-4.95, using refined cooking oil (adj OR: 0.53, 95% CI: 0.29-0.95, extra salt in meals (adj OR: 2.46, 95% CI: 1.52-3.99, salty food

  19. Pre-Hypertension among Young Adults (20–30 Years) in Coastal Villages of Udupi District in Southern India: An Alarming Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamath, Veena G.; Kulkarni, Muralidhar M.; Kamath, Asha; Shivalli, Siddharudha

    2016-01-01

    Introduction According to Joint National Committee-7 (JNC-7) guidelines, a systolic blood pressure (SBP) of 120 to 139 mm Hg and/or diastolic blood pressure (DBP) of 80 to 89 mm Hg is considered as pre-hypertension. Existing evidence suggest that the cardiovascular morbidities are increasing among pre-hypertensive individuals compared to normal. Objective To assess the magnitude and factors associated with pre-hypertension among young adults (20–30 years) in coastal villages of Udupi Taluk (an area of land with a city or town that serves as its administrative centre and usually a number of villages), Udupi District, Karnataka state, India. Design Community based cross sectional study Setting 6 (out of total 14) coastal villages of Udupi Taluk, Karnataka state, India. Sample 1,152 young adults (age group: 20–30 years) selected by stratified random sampling in 6 coastal villages of Udupi Taluk, Karnataka state, India Method A semi structured pre-tested questionnaire was used to elicit the details on socio-demographic variables, dietary habits, tobacco use, alcohol consumption, physical activity, family history of hypertension and stress levels. Anthropometric measurements and blood pressure were recorded according to standard protocols. Serum cholesterol was measured in a sub sample of the study population. Multivariate logistic regression was applied to identify the independent correlates of pre-hypertension among young adults (20–30 years). Main Outcome Measures Prevalence, Odds ratio (OR) and adjusted (adj) OR for pre-hypertension among young adults (20–30 years). Results The prevalence of pre-hypertension in the study population was 45.2% (95%CI: 42.4–48). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that age group of 25–30 years (adj OR: 4.25, 95% CI: 2.99–6.05), white collared (adj OR: 2.29, 95% CI: 1.08–4.85) and skilled occupation (adj OR: 3.24, 95% CI: 1.64–6.42), students (adj OR: 2.46, 95% CI: 1.22–4.95), using refined cooking oil

  20. Rainfall Simulation: methods, research questions and challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ries, J. B.; Iserloh, T.

    2012-04-01

    In erosion research, rainfall simulations are used for the improvement of process knowledge as well as in the field for the assessment of overland flow generation, infiltration, and erosion rates. In all these fields of research, rainfall experiments have become an indispensable part of the research methods. In this context, small portable rainfall simulators with small test-plot sizes of one square-meter or even less, and devices of low weight and water consumption are in demand. Accordingly, devices with manageable technical effort like nozzle-type simulators seem to prevail against larger simulators. The reasons are obvious: lower costs and less time consumption needed for mounting enable a higher repetition rate. Regarding the high number of research questions, of different fields of application, and not least also due to the great technical creativity of our research staff, a large number of different experimental setups is available. Each of the devices produces a different rainfall, leading to different kinetic energy amounts influencing the soil surface and accordingly, producing different erosion results. Hence, important questions contain the definition, the comparability, the measurement and the simulation of natural rainfall and the problem of comparability in general. Another important discussion topic will be the finding of an agreement on an appropriate calibration method for the simulated rainfalls, in order to enable a comparison of the results of different rainfall simulator set-ups. In most of the publications, only the following "nice" sentence can be read: "Our rainfall simulator generates a rainfall spectrum that is similar to natural rainfall!". The most substantial and critical properties of a simulated rainfall are the drop-size distribution, the fall velocities of the drops, and the spatial distribution of the rainfall on the plot-area. In a comparison of the most important methods, the Laser Distrometer turned out to be the most up

  1. Characterizing land surface phenology and responses to rainfall in the Sahara desert

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Dong; Zhang, Xiaoyang; Yu, Yunyue; Guo, Wei; Hanan, Niall P.

    2016-08-01

    Land surface phenology (LSP) in the Sahara desert is poorly understood due to the difficulty in detecting subtle variations in vegetation greenness. This study examined the spatial and temporal patterns of LSP and its responses to rainfall seasonality in the Sahara desert. We first generated daily two-band enhanced vegetation index (EVI2) from half-hourly observations acquired by the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager on board the Meteosat Second Generation series of geostationary satellites from 2006 to 2012. The EVI2 time series was used to retrieve LSP based on the Hybrid Piecewise Logistic Model. We further investigated the associations of spatial and temporal patterns in LSP with those in rainfall seasonality derived from the daily rainfall time series of the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission. Results show that the spatial shifts in the start of the vegetation growing season generally follow the rainy season onset that is controlled by the summer rainfall regime in the southern Sahara desert. In contrast, the end of the growing season significantly lags the end of the rainy season without any significant dependence. Vegetation growing season can unfold during the dry seasons after onset is triggered during rainy seasons. Vegetation growing season can be as long as 300 days or more in some areas and years. However, the EVI2 amplitude and accumulation across the Sahara region was very low indicating sparse vegetation as expected in desert regions. EVI2 amplitude and accumulated EVI2 strongly depended on rainfall received during the growing season and the preceding dormancy period.

  2. Performance of CMORPH, TMPA, and PERSIANN rainfall datasets over plain, mountainous, and glacial regions of Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussain, Yawar; Satgé, Frédéric; Hussain, Muhammad Babar; Martinez-Carvajal, Hernan; Bonnet, Marie-Paule; Cárdenas-Soto, Martin; Roig, Henrique Llacer; Akhter, Gulraiz

    2017-01-01

    The present study aims at the assessment of six satellite rainfall estimates (SREs) in Pakistan. For each assessed products, both real-time (RT) and post adjusted (Adj) versions are considered to highlight their potential benefits in the rainfall estimation at annual, monthly, and daily temporal scales. Three geomorphological climatic zones, i.e., plain, mountainous, and glacial are taken under considerations for the determination of relative potentials of these SREs over Pakistan at global and regional scales. All SREs, in general, have well captured the annual north-south rainfall decreasing patterns and rainfall amounts over the typical arid regions of the country. Regarding the zonal approach, the performance of all SREs has remained good over mountainous region comparative to arid regions. This poor performance in accurate rainfall estimation of all the six SREs over arid regions has made their use questionable in these regions. Over glacier region, all SREs have highly overestimated the rainfall. One possible cause of this overestimation may be due to the low surface temperature and radiation absorption over snow and ice cover, resulting in their misidentification with rainy clouds as daily false alarm ratio has increased from mountainous to glacial regions. Among RT products, CMORPH-RT is the most biased product. The Bias was almost removed on CMORPH-Adj thanks to the gauge adjustment. On a general way, all Adj versions outperformed their respective RT versions at all considered temporal scales and have confirmed the positive effects of gauge adjustment. CMORPH-Adj and TMPA-Adj have shown the best agreement with in situ data in terms of Bias, RMSE, and CC over the entire study area.

  3. Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) rainfall curves, for data series and climate projection in African cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Paola, Francesco; Giugni, Maurizio; Topa, Maria Elena; Coly, Adrien; Yeshitela, Kumelachew; Kombe, Wilbard; Tonye, Emmanuel; Touré, Hamidou

    2013-04-01

    The intensity-duration-frequency curves are used in hydrology to express in a synthetic way, the link between the maximum rainfall height h and a generic duration d of a rainfall event, fixed a given return period T. Generally, IDF curves can be characterized by a bi-parameter power law: h(d,T) = a(T)dn where a(T), and n are the parameters that have to be estimated through a probabilistic approach. An intensity-duration-frequency analysis starts by gathering time series record of different durations and extracting annual extremes for each duration. The annual extreme data are then fitted by a probability distribution. The present study, carried out within the FP7-ENV-2010 CLUVA project (CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa), regards the evaluation of the IDF curves for five case studies: Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), Dar Es Salaam (Tanzania), Douala (Cameroon), Ouagadouogou (Burkina Faso) and Saint Louis (Senegal). The probability distribution chosen to fit the annual extreme data is the classic Gumbel distribution. However, for the case studies, only the maximum annual daily rainfall heights are available. Therefore, to define the IDF curves and the extreme values in a smaller time window (10', 30', 1h, 3h, 6h, 12h), it is required to develop disaggregation techniques of the collected data, in order to generate a synthetic sequence of rainfall, with statistical properties equal to the recorded data. The daily rainfalls were disaggregated using two models: short-time intensity disaggregation model (10', 30', 1h); cascade-based disaggregation model (3h, 6h, 12h). On the basis of disaggegation models and Gumbel distribution , the parameters of the IDF curves for the five test cities were evaluated. In order to estimate the contingent influence of climate change on the IDF curves, the illustrated procedure has been applied to the climate (rainfall) simulations over the time period 2010-2050 provided by the CMCC (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici

  4. Spatial distribution of the timing of rainfall extremes derived by remote sensing and raingauges data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Libertino, Andrea; Claps, Pierluigi; Sharma, Ashish; Lakshmi, Venkat

    2016-04-01

    Severe rainfall events are quite common in the coastal areas of the Mediterranean basin during autumn season, despite its generally mild climate. Very often meteorological conditions responsible for these kinds of events are quasi-stationary convective systems, characterized by very localized development, hard to detect with traditional rain gauge networks. In order to improve prediction and management capabilities, progress must be made in understanding the mechanism that govern the development of these kind of precipitation systems at the different scales. Rainfall product from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) are commonly adopted in different branches of the environmental sciences due to the high spatio-temporal resolution and to the quasi-global nature of the data. Building upon the success of TRMM, NASA and JAXA deployed the GPM Core Observatory that, after just two years of activity, seems to allow for great improvement in the accuracy of rainfall products. We developed a methodology aimed at exploiting the timing information derived from high-resolution remote sensing products to analyze the characteristic of severe rainfall systems in the Mediterranean basin. The spatial analysis from satellite, combined with the historical information from the rain gauge network, allows us deepening the knowledge of the spatial extension of extreme rainfall phenomena. All those information, merged together in a hierarchical framework, lead to the definition of Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves "informed" on the nature of the events for each location of the domain, without the need to adopt classical interpolation techniques, unable to represent the complexity of the rainfall systems. The case study refers to a database of daily rainfall measurements extracted from the NOAA GHCN-Daily dataset, recorded during the 20th century by 700 rain gauges distributed in the Mediterranean basin. TRMM and GPM images are used to calibrate the event timing over the

  5. Physical simulation of urban rainfall infiltration

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Jie; ZENG Bing; WANG Yan-xia; SHEN Lei

    2008-01-01

    To meet the demand of urban rainwater integrated management, we designed and complemented a physical simulation experimental system of urban rainfall infiltration regulation parameters. We discuss the feasibility of quantitative regulations of urban underlying surface rainfall infiltration conditions and a practical application of a simulated experimental system. In a comprehensive analysis of the composition of an effective rainwater harvesting system and selection of water storage material, we simulated the major parameters of an experimental area rainfall, soil moisture and water storage capacity by providing an effective regulation of the experimental area runoff coefficient, obtained from basic data.

  6. Detecting Rainfall Onset Using Sky Images

    CERN Document Server

    Dev, Soumyabrata; Lee, Yee Hui; Winkler, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    Ground-based sky cameras (popularly known as Whole Sky Imagers) are increasingly used now-a-days for continuous monitoring of the atmosphere. These imagers have higher temporal and spatial resolutions compared to conventional satellite images. In this paper, we use ground-based sky cameras to detect the onset of rainfall. These images contain additional information about cloud coverage and movement and are therefore useful for accurate rainfall nowcast. We validate our results using rain gauge measurement recordings and achieve an accuracy of 89% for correct detection of rainfall onset.

  7. A point rainfall model and rainfall intensity-duration-frequency analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoo, Chul-Sang; Jung, Kwang-Sik [Korea University, Jochiwon(Korea); Kim, Nam-Won [Korea Institute of Construction Technology, Koyang(Korea)

    2001-12-31

    This study proposes a theoretical methodology for deriving a rainfall intensity-duration-frequency(I-D-F) curve using a simple rectangular pulses Poisson process model. As the I-D-F curve derived by considering the model structure is dependent on the rainfall model parameters estimated using the observed first and second order statistics, it becomes less sensitive to the unusual rainfall events than that derived using the annual maxima rainfall series. This study has been applied to the rainfall data at Seoul and Incheon stations to check its applicability by comparing the two I-D-F curves from the model and the data. The results obtained are as followed. (1) As the duration becomes longer, the overlap probability increases significantly. However, its contribution to the rainfall intensity decreases a little. (2) When considering the overlap of each rainfall event, especially for large duration and return period, we could see obvious increases of rainfall intensity. This result is normal as the rainfall intensity is calculated by considering both the overlap probability and return period. Also, the overlap effect for Seoul station is found much higher than that for Incheon station, which is mainly due to the different overlap probabilities calculated using different rainfall model parameter sets. (3) As the rectangular pulses Poisson processes model used in this study cannot consider the clustering characteristics of rainfall, the derived I-D-F curves show less rainfall intensities than those from the annual maxima series. However, overall pattern of both I-D-F curves are found very similar, and the difference is believed to be overcome by use of a rainfall model with the clustering consideration. (author). 14 refs., 6 tabs., 2 figs.

  8. Rainfall measurements from cellular networks microwave links : an alternative ground reference for satellite validation and hydrology in Africa .

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gosset, Marielle; cazenave, frederic; Zougmore, françois; Doumounia, Ali; kacou, Modeste

    2015-04-01

    In many part of the Tropics the ground based gauge networks are sparse, often degrading and accessing this data for monitoring rainfall or for validating satellite products is sometime difficult. Here, an alternative rainfall measuring technique is proposed and tested in West Africa. It is based on using commercial microwave links from cellular telephone networks to detect and quantify rainfall. Rainfall monitoring based on commercial terrestrial microwave links has been tested for the first time in Burkina Faso, in Sahel. The rainfall regime is characterized by intense rainfall intensities brought by mesoscale Convective systems (MCS), generated by deep organized convection. The region is subjected to drought as well as dramatic floods associated with the intense rainfall provided by a few MCSs. The hydrometeorological risk is increasing and need to be monitored. In collaboration with the national cellular phone operator, Telecel Faso, the attenuation on 29 km long microwave links operating at 7 GHz was monitored at 1s time rate for the monsoon season 2012. The time series of attenuation is transformed into rain rates and compared with rain gauge data. The method is successful in quantifying rainfall: 95% of the rainy days are detected. The correlation with the daily raingauge series is 0.8 and the season bias is 5%. The correlation at the 5 min time step within each event is also high. We will present the quantitative results, discuss the uncertainties and compare the time series and the 2D maps with those derived from a polarimetric radar. The results demonstrate the potential interest of exploiting national and regional wireless telecommunication networks to provide rainfall maps for various applications : urban hydrology, agro-hydrological risk monitoring, satellite validation and development of combined rainfall products. We will also present the outcome of the first international Rain Cell Africa workshop held in Ouagadougou early 2015.

  9. Detecting low frequency cycles in rainfall series from Colombian coffee-growing area by using descriptive methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peña Q Andrés J

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Descriptive statistical methods were used for improving climatic variability scenarios regarding rainfall using time series from five representative pluviometric stations (Miguel Valencia, Naranjal, Cenicafé, La Bella and Paraguaicito; such scenarios are used to make decisions regarding coffee-growing. The purpose was to find signs of cyclic behaviour besides those associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO which happens every 3.5 to 4.5 years. Signals were found of decadal to interdecadal cycle (10 to 30 years, modulating known ENSO effects related to periodic changes in the Pacific Ocean and solar activity.

  10. Spatial estimation of debris flows-triggering rainfall and its dependence on rainfall severity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Destro, Elisa; Marra, Francesco; Nikolopoulos, Efthymios; Zoccatelli, Davide; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Borga, Marco

    2016-04-01

    Forecasting the occurrence of landslides and debris flows (collectively termed 'debris flows' hereinafter) is fundamental for issuing hazard warnings, and focuses largely on rainfall as a triggering agent. Debris flow forecasting relies very often on the identification of combinations of depth and duration of rainfall - rainfall thresholds - that trigger widespread debris flows. Rainfall estimation errors related to the sparse nature of raingauge data are enhanced in case of convective rainfall events characterized by limited spatial extent. Such errors have been shown to cause underestimation of the rainfall thresholds and, thus, less efficient forecasts of debris flows occurrence. This work examines the spatial organization of debris flows-triggering rainfall around the debris flow initiation points using high-resolution, carefully corrected radar data for a set of short duration (debris-flow triggering rainfall events that occurred in the study area between 2005 and 2014. The selected events are among the most severe in the region during this period and triggered a total of 99 debris flows that caused significant damage to people and infrastructures. We show that the spatial rainfall organisation depends on the severity (measured via the estimated return time-RT) of the debris flow-triggering rainfall. For more frequent events (RTdebris flow location coincides with a local minimum, whereas for less frequent events (RT>20 yrs) the triggering rainfall presents a local peak corresponding to the debris flow initiation point. Dependence of these features on rainfall duration is quite limited. The characteristics of the spatial rainfall organisation are exploited to understand the performances and results of three different rainfall interpolation techniques: nearest neighbour (NN), inverse distance weighting (IDW) and ordinary kriging (OK). We show that the features of the spatial organization of the debris flow triggering rainfall explain the biases in the

  11. Secular spring rainfall variability at local scale over Ethiopia: trend and associated dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsidu, Gizaw Mengistu

    2016-07-01

    general circulation model (AGCM) coupled to mixed-layer oceanic model. The rainfall anomaly (with respect to control simulation), forced by the northwestern Indian Ocean secular SST anomaly and averaged over the 30-year period, exhibits prevalence of dry conditions over East and equatorial Africa in agreement with observation. The atmospheric response to secular SST warming anomaly led to divergent flow at low levels and subsidence at the upper troposphere over regions north of 5° S on the continent and vice versa over the Indian Ocean. This surface difluence over East Africa, in addition to its role in suppressing convective activity, deprives the region of moisture supply from the Indian Ocean as well as the Atlantic and Congo basins.

  12. Climate-change driven increase in high intensity rainfall events: Analysis of development in the last decades and towards an extrapolation of future progression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Eva; Pfister, Angela; Gerd, Büger; Maik, Heistermann; Bronstert, Axel

    2015-04-01

    Hydrological extreme events can be triggered by rainfall on different spatiotemporal scales: river floods are typically caused by event durations of between hours and days, while urban flash floods as well as soil erosion or contaminant transport rather result from storms events of very short duration (minutes). Still, the analysis of climate change impacts on rainfall-induced extreme events is usually carried out using daily precipitation data at best. Trend analyses of extreme rainfall at sub-daily or even sub-hourly time scales are rare. In this contribution two lines of research are combined: first, we analyse sub-hourly rainfall data for several decades in three European regions.Second, we investigate the scaling behaviour of heavy short-term precipitation with temperature, i.e. the dependence of high intensity rainfall on the atmospheric temperature at that particular time and location. The trend analysis of high-resolution rainfall data shows for the first time that the frequency of short and intensive storm events in the temperate lowland regions in Germany has increased by up to 0.5 events per year over the last decades. I.e. this trend suggests that the occurrence of these types of storms have multiplied over only a few decades. Parallel to the changes in the rainfall regime, increases in the annual and seasonal average temperature and changes in the occurrence of circulation patterns responsible for the generation of high-intensity storms have been found. The analysis of temporally highly resolved rainfall records from three European regions further indicates that extreme precipitation events are more intense with warmer temperatures during the rainfall event. These observations follow partly the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. Based on this relation one may derive a general rule of maximum rainfall intensity associated to the event temperature, roughly following the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. This rule might be used for scenarios of future maximum

  13. Statistical Downscaling for Rainfall Forecasts Using Modified Constructed Analog Method in Thailand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anuchaivong, Patchalai; Sukawat, Dusadee

    2017-01-01

    The simulations of rainfall from historical data were created in this study by using statistical downscaling. Statistical downscaling techniques are based on a relationship between the variables that are solved by the General Circulation Models (GCMs) and the observed predictions. The Modified Constructed Analog Method (MCAM) is a technique in downscaling estimation, suitable for rainfall simulation accuracy using weather forecasting. In this research, the MCAM was used to calculate the Euclidean distance to obtain the number of analog days. Afterwards, a linear combination of 30 analog days is created with simulated rainfall data which are determined by the corresponding 5 days from the adjusted weights of the appropriate forecast day. This method is used to forecast the daily rainfall and was received from the Thai Meteorological Department (TMD) from the period during 1979 to 2010 at thirty stations. The experiment involved the use of rainfall forecast data that was combined with the historical data during the rainy season in 2010. The result showed that the MCAM gave the correlation value of 0.8 resulting in a reduced percentage error of 13.66%. The MCAM gave the value of 1094.10 mm which was the closest value to the observed precipitation of 1119.53 mm. PMID:28317010

  14. Genetic Programming for the Downscaling of Extreme Rainfall Events on the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sahar Hadi Pour

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available A genetic programming (GP-based logistic regression method is proposed in the present study for the downscaling of extreme rainfall indices on the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia, which is considered one of the zones in Malaysia most vulnerable to climate change. A National Centre for Environmental Prediction reanalysis dataset at 42 grid points surrounding the study area was used to select the predictors. GP models were developed for the downscaling of three extreme rainfall indices: days with larger than or equal to the 90th percentile of rainfall during the north-east monsoon; consecutive wet days; and consecutive dry days in a year. Daily rainfall data for the time periods 1961–1990 and 1991–2000 were used for the calibration and validation of models, respectively. The results are compared with those obtained using the multilayer perceptron neural network (ANN and linear regression-based statistical downscaling model (SDSM. It was found that models derived using GP can predict both annual and seasonal extreme rainfall indices more accurately compared to ANN and SDSM.

  15. Monitoring early-flood season intraseasonal oscillations and persistent heavy rainfall in South China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Jianyun; Lin, Hai; You, Lijun; Chen, Si

    2016-12-01

    Rainfall variability during the early-flood season (April-June) in South China is largely controlled by both the 10-20 and 20-70-day intraseasonal oscillations (ISO). In this study, a method is described to monitor the ISO and persistent heavy rainfall in South China. Three existing daily real-time 20-70-day ISO indices are compared. It is found that the regional East Asia-western North Pacific (EAWNP) ISO index best represents the early-flood season 20-70-day ISO in South China. A new bivariate boreal summer ISO index is designed to describe the 10-20-day ISO in the EAWNP region. Composite analysis shows that the rainfall anomaly in South China is well captured by the northward propagation of both the 10-20 and 20-70-day ISO. With different phase combinations of the 10-20 and 20-70-day EAWNP ISO, nine conditions are defined ranging from those favorable to those unfavorable to heavy rainfall in South China that can be used to effectively monitor the early-flood season ISO and persistent heavy rainfall in South China.

  16. Systematic Evaluation of Satellite-Based Rainfall Products over the Brahmaputra Basin for Hydrological Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sagar Ratna Bajracharya

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Estimation of the flow generated in the Brahmaputra river basin is important for establishing an effective flood prediction and warning services as well as for water resources assessment and management. But this is a data scarce region with few and unevenly distributed hydrometeorological stations. Five high-resolution satellite rainfall products (CPC RFE2.0, RFE2.0-Modified, CMORPH, GSMaP, and TRMM 3B42 were evaluated at different spatial and temporal resolutions (daily, dekadal, monthly, and seasonal with observed rain gauge data from 2004 to 2006 to determine their ability to fill the data gap and suitability for use in hydrological and water resources management applications. Grid-to-grid (G-G and catchment-to-catchment (C-C comparisons were performed using the verification methods developed by the International Precipitation Working Group (IPWG. Comparing different products, RFE2.0-Modified, TRMM 3B42, and CMORPH performed best; they all detected heavy, moderate, and low rainfall but still significantly underestimated magnitude of rainfall, particularly in orographically influenced areas. Overall, RFE2.0-Modified performed best showing a high correlation coefficient with observed data and low mean absolute error, root mean square error, and multiple bias and is reasonably good at detecting the occurrence of rainfall. TRMM 3B42 showed the second best performance. The study demonstrates that there is a potential use of satellite rainfall in a data scarce region.

  17. The within-day behaviour of 6 minute rainfall intensity in Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. W. Western

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The statistical behaviour and distribution of high-resolution (6 min rainfall intensity within the wet part of rainy days (total rainfall depth >10 mm is investigated for 42 stations across Australia. This paper compares nine theoretical distribution functions (TDFs in representing these data. Two goodness-of-fit statistics are reported: the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE between the fitted and observed within-day distribution; and the coefficient of efficiency for the fit to the highest rainfall intensities (average intensity of the 5 highest intensity intervals across all days at a site. The three-parameter Generalised Pareto distribution was clearly the best performer. Good results were also obtained from Exponential, Gamma, and two-parameter Generalized Pareto distributions, each of which are two parameter functions, which may be advantageous when predicting parameter values. Results of different fitting methods are compared for different estimation techniques. The behaviour of the statistical properties of the within-day intensity distributions was also investigated and trends with latitude, Köppen climate zone (strongly related to latitude and daily rainfall amount were identified. The latitudinal trends are likely related to a changing mix of rainfall generation mechanisms across the Australian continent.

  18. The within-day behaviour of 6 minute rainfall intensity in Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Western, A. W.; Anderson, B.; Siriwardena, L.; Chiew, F. H. S.; Seed, A.; Blöschl, G.

    2011-08-01

    The statistical behaviour and distribution of high-resolution (6 min) rainfall intensity within the wet part of rainy days (total rainfall depth >10 mm) is investigated for 42 stations across Australia. This paper compares nine theoretical distribution functions (TDFs) in representing these data. Two goodness-of-fit statistics are reported: the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) between the fitted and observed within-day distribution; and the coefficient of efficiency for the fit to the highest rainfall intensities (average intensity of the 5 highest intensity intervals) across all days at a site. The three-parameter Generalised Pareto distribution was clearly the best performer. Good results were also obtained from Exponential, Gamma, and two-parameter Generalized Pareto distributions, each of which are two parameter functions, which may be advantageous when predicting parameter values. Results of different fitting methods are compared for different estimation techniques. The behaviour of the statistical properties of the within-day intensity distributions was also investigated and trends with latitude, Köppen climate zone (strongly related to latitude) and daily rainfall amount were identified. The latitudinal trends are likely related to a changing mix of rainfall generation mechanisms across the Australian continent.

  19. The within-day behaviour of 6 minute rainfall intensity in Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. W. Western

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The statistical behaviour and distribution of high-resolution (6 min rainfall intensity within the wet part of rainy days (total rainfall depth >10 mm is investigated for 42 stations across Australia. This paper compares nine theoretical distribution functions (TDFs in representing these data. Two goodness-of-fit statistics are reported: the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE between the fitted and observed within-day distribution; and the efficiency of prediction of the highest rainfall intensities (average intensity of the 5 highest intensity intervals. The three-parameter Generalised Pareto distribution was clearly the best performer. Good results were also obtained from Exponential, Gamma, and two-parameter Generalized Pareto distributions, each of which are two parameter functions, which may be advantageous when predicting parameter values. Results of different fitting methods are compared for different estimation techniques. The behaviour of the statistical properties of the within-day intensity distributions was also investigated and trends with latitude, Köppen climate zone (strongly related to latitude and daily rainfall amount were identified. The latitudinal trends are likely related to a changing mix of rainfall generation mechanisms across the Australian continent.

  20. Trends analyses of 30 years of ambient 8 hour ozone and precursor monitoring data in the South Central U.S.: progress and challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sather, Mark E; Cavender, Kevin

    2016-07-13

    In the last 30 years ambient ozone concentrations have notably decreased in the South Central U.S. Yet, current ambient ozone concentrations measured over the past three years 2013-2015 in this area of the U.S. are not meeting the U.S. 2015 8 hour ozone standard of 70 parts per billion (ppb). This paper provides an update on long-term trends analyses of ambient 8 hour ozone and ozone precursor monitoring data collected over the past 30 years (1986-2015) in four South Central U.S. cities, following up on two previously published reviews of 20 and 25 year trends for these cities. All four cities have benefitted from national ozone precursor controls put in place during the 1990s and 2000s involving cleaner vehicles (vehicle fleet turnover/replacement over time), cleaner fuels, cleaner gasoline and diesel engines, and improved inspection/maintenance programs for existing vehicles. Additional ozone precursor emission controls specific to each city are detailed in this paper. The controls have resulted in impressive ambient ozone and ambient ozone precursor concentration reductions in the four South Central U.S. cities over the past 30 years, including 31-70% ambient nitrogen oxides (NOx) concentration declines from historical peaks to the present, 43-72% volatile organic compound (VOC) concentration declines from historical peaks to the present, a related 45-76% VOC reactivity decline for a subset of VOC species from historical peaks to the present, and an 18-38 ppb reduction in city 8 hour ozone design value concentrations. A new challenge for each of the four South Central U.S. cities will be meeting the U.S. 2015 8 hour ozone standard of 70 ppb.

  1. Climatic patterns and extreme rainfalls on coastal areas in Central Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bramati, M. C.; Tarragoni, C.

    2012-04-01

    In this paper we focus on the extreme values analysis to estimate the rainfall return levels for some Adriatic and Tyrrhenian coastal areas in central Italy. Two approaches are mainly considered: the first one is based on the maximum annual daily rainfall series (1-day, 2-day and 3-day) for which suitable probability distributions are fitted, whereas the second one is based on the series of peaks over annual thresholds (POT) for which the best fitting Generalized Pareto distribution is identified. Spectral analysis and appropriate tests for stationarity and homogeneity are run in order to verify the hypothesis under which the analysis performed is valid. From the density plots and the parameter estimates of the fitted distributions to the various annual maximum rainfall series we can conclude that there is a different pattern in the occurrence of extreme events for the western coast with respect to the eastern coast. Specifically, on the Tyrrhenian side extreme rainfalls are more likely to happen in correspondence of longer time spans (i.e. 3-day series) as the effect of cumulated stable rainfalls over time. On the opposite, for the Adriatic coast extremes are more frequent in shorter time spans (1-day). A vector autoregressive model is then estimated and through a causal ordering the identifying restrictions are set. The impulse response analysis shows a lag in the transmission of rainfall shocks of the central Adriatic coast to the Tyrrhenian one. This paper is prepared as a background paper to the SECOA N1.2 Report: Assessment of frequency-magnitude of extreme rainfall events and flooding. Project SECOA (Solutions for Environmental contrast in Coastal Areas) is funded by the EU Commission within the 7th Framework Programme (2007-2013).

  2. Climatology of observed rainfall in Southeast France at the Regional Climate Model scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Froidurot, Stéphanie; Molinié, Gilles; Diedhiou, Arona

    2016-04-01

    In order to provide convenient data to assess rainfall simulated by Regional Climate Models, a spatial database (hereafter called K-REF) has been designed. This database is used to examine climatological features of rainfall in Southeast France, a study region characterized by two mountain ranges of comparable altitude (the Cévennes and the Alps foothill) on both sides of the Rhône valley. Hourly records from 1993 to 2013 have been interpolated to a 0.1° × 0.1° latitude-longitude regular grid and accumulated over 3-h periods in K-REF. The assessment of K-REF relatively to the SAFRAN daily rainfall reanalysis indicates consistent patterns and magnitudes between the two datasets even though K-REF fields are smoother. A multi-scale analysis of the occurrence and non-zero intensity of rainfall is performed and shows that the maps of the 50th and 95th percentiles of 3- and 24-h rain intensity highlight different patterns. The maxima of the 50th and 95th percentiles are located over plain and mountainous areas respectively. Moreover, the location of these maxima is not the same for the 3- and 24-h intensities. To understand these differences between median and intense rainfall on the one hand and between the 3- and 24-h rainfall on the other hand, we analyze the statistical distributions and the space-time structure of occurrence and intensity of the 3-h rainfall in two classes of days, defined as median and intense. This analysis illustrates the influence of two factors on the triggering and the intensity of rain in the region: the solar cycle and the orography. The orographic forcing appears to be quite different for the two ranges of the domain and is much more pronounced over the Cévennes.

  3. Rainfall variability over southern Africa: an overview of current research using satellite and climate model data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

    2009-04-01

    It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable to and ill-equipped (in terms of adaptation) for extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, famine, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. In this research, satellite-derived rainfall data are used as a basis for undertaking model experiments using a state-of-the-art climate model, run at both high and low spatial resolution. Once the model's ability to reproduce extremes has been assessed, idealised regions of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are used to force the model, with the overall aim of investigating the ways in which SST anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. In this paper, a brief overview is given of the authors' research to date, pertaining to southern African rainfall. This covers (i) a description of present-day rainfall variability over southern Africa; (ii) a comparison of model simulated daily rainfall with the satellite-derived dataset; (iii) results from sensitivity testing of the model's domain size; and (iv) results from the idealised SST experiments.

  4. Rainfall Fields: Estimation, Analysis, and Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    The problem of predicting rainfall and its characteristics has always been one of overriding concern for both hydrologists and meteorologists. Yet, for decades the two disciplines have pursued its solution using radically different techniques and communicating relatively little about recent advances in understanding rainfall processes, new technology, and improvements in predictive skill.Meteorologists tend to publish in journals that deal almost exclusively with atmospheric processes, while hydrologists prefer media which focus on the Earth's surface and below. Meteorologists tend to concentrate on developing and improving numerical hydrodynamical models of the atmospheric processes that generate rainfall. Their approach is essentially to solve an initial value problem where the observed three-dimensional state of the atmosphere is input to the model and the rainfall is one of the output parameters.

  5. Chase the direct impact of rainfall into groundwater in Mt. Fuji from multiple analyses including microbial DNA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, Kenji; Sugiyama, Ayumi; Nagaosa, Kazuyo; Tsujimura, Maki

    2016-04-01

    A huge amount of groundwater is stored in subsurface environment of Mt. Fuji, the largest volcanic mountain in Japan. Based on the concept of piston flow transport of groundwater an apparent residence time was estimated to ca. 30 years by 36Cl/Cl ratio (Tosaki et al., 2011). However, this number represents an averaged value of the residence time of groundwater which had been mixed before it flushes out. We chased signatures of direct impact of rainfall into groundwater to elucidate the routes of groundwater, employing three different tracers; stable isotopic analysis (delta 18O), chemical analysis (concentration of silica) and microbial DNA analysis. Though chemical analysis of groundwater shows an averaged value of the examined water which was blended by various water with different sources and routes in subsurface environment, microbial DNA analysis may suggest the place where they originated, which may give information of the source and transport routes of the water examined. Throughout the in situ observation of four rainfall events showed that stable oxygen isotopic ratio of spring water and shallow groundwater obtained from 726m a.s.l. where the average recharge height of rainfall was between 1500 and 1800 m became higher than the values before a torrential rainfall, and the concentration of silica decreased after this event when rainfall exceeded 300 mm in precipitation of an event. In addition, the density of Prokaryotes in spring water apparently increased. Those changes did not appear when rainfall did not exceed 100 mm per event. Thus, findings shown above indicated a direct impact of rainfall into shallow groundwater, which appeared within a few weeks of torrential rainfall in the studied geological setting. In addition, increase in the density of Archaea observed at deep groundwater after the torrential rainfall suggested an enlargement of the strength of piston flow transport through the penetration of rainfall into deep groundwater. This finding was

  6. Statistical Inference for Point Process Models of Rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, James A.; Karr, Alan F.

    1985-01-01

    In this paper we develop maximum likelihood procedures for parameter estimation and model selection that apply to a large class of point process models that have been used to model rainfall occurrences, including Cox processes, Neyman-Scott processes, and renewal processes. The statistical inference procedures are based on the stochastic intensity λ(t) = lims→0,s>0 (1/s)E[N(t + s) - N(t)|N(u), u process is shown to have a simple expression in terms of the stochastic intensity. The main result of this paper is a recursive procedure for computing stochastic intensities; the procedure is applicable to a broad class of point process models, including renewal Cox process with Markovian intensity processes and an important class of Neyman-Scott processes. The model selection procedure we propose, which is based on likelihood ratios, allows direct comparison of two classes of point processes to determine which provides a better model for a given data set. The estimation and model selection procedures are applied to two data sets of simulated Cox process arrivals and a data set of daily rainfall occurrences in the Potomac River basin.

  7. The effects of advertising in Twitter on the regular 20-30 year old users : Advertising in a social networking medium

    OpenAIRE

    Terekhina, Larisa

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this thesis work was to investigate and analyze in what way online adver-tising in Twitter affects its regular users nowadays. More specifically it focused on the young (20-30 years old) frequent Internet users of the social networking medium. The theoretical part of the study introduced Twitter and methods of advertising in it. The em-pirical part of the thesis was conducted by using a quantitative research method. The data was gathered from discussions of a focus and a contro...

  8. Silicone Granuloma in the Buttocks Incidentally Detected by 18F-FDG PET/CT 30 Years After Free Liquid Silicone Injections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohnona, Jessica; Durand, Pauline; Amegnizin, Jean-Louis; Kerrou, Khaldoun

    2016-06-01

    A 59-year-old transexual (male to female) patient presented with a squamous cell carcinoma of the larynx. She underwent an F-FDG PET/CT for initial staging. The examination showed high F-FDG uptake of the primary lesion and a homolateral lymphadenopathy. Incidental heterogeneous uptake of round hyperdense lesions in the gluteal muscles and subcutaneous fat was visualized. The medical history revealed secondly that the patient had had free liquid silicone injections 30 years before the examination. Although the injection of free silicone is not practised since the 1980s, this incidental finding should prompt to check the patient's medical history over several decades.

  9. Matching 30 years of ecosystem monitoring with a high resolution microfossil record of chironomid eggs and Cladocera from Lake Mývatn, Iceland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hauptfleisch, Ulf; Einarsson, Arni; Andersen, Thorbjørn Joest;

    2011-01-01

    1. Monitoring of the ecosystem of Lake My´vatn, Iceland, since 1975 has revealed extreme fluctuations in important food web components, such as chironomids and cladocerans, with amplitudes of several orders of magnitude and a period of 5–8 years. This study uses sediment cores from the lake...... in the uppermost 34 cm of sediment were compared with the monitoring record that consisted of 30 years of window trap catches of flying chironomids and a 16-year record of chydorid Cladocera caught in activity traps. 4. The observed chironomid and cladoceran population fluctuations were reflected in the sediment...

  10. Rainfall Maximum Intensities for Urban Hydrological Design in Mexican Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Campos–Aranda D.F.

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Firstly, through the urban hydrosystem concept and through urbanization, the difficulties and approach of the urban flood estimation are established, based in the Intensity–Duration–Frequency curves (IDF. Next, in 10 recording gages located in very different geographic zones, a procedure is contrasted for IDF estimation curves, which utilized the Chen formula and the available information in the Mexican Republic for isohyet intensities and annual daily maximum rainfall. Late, having verified their capacity and approximation to reproduce the IDF curves, the utilized procedure was applied in 45 important locations of the country, showing the results. Lastly, the conclusions are formulated, which point out the approximation and simplicity of the proposal procedure.

  11. Improving radar rainfall estimation by merging point rainfall measurements within a model combination framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasan, Mohammad Mahadi; Sharma, Ashish; Mariethoz, Gregoire; Johnson, Fiona; Seed, Alan

    2016-11-01

    While the value of correcting raw radar rainfall estimates using simultaneous ground rainfall observations is well known, approaches that use the complete record of both gauge and radar measurements to provide improved rainfall estimates are much less common. We present here two new approaches for estimating radar rainfall that are designed to address known limitations in radar rainfall products by using a relatively long history of radar reflectivity and ground rainfall observations. The first of these two approaches is a radar rainfall estimation algorithm that is nonparametric by construction. Compared to the traditional gauge adjusted parametric relationship between reflectivity (Z) and ground rainfall (R), the suggested new approach is based on a nonparametric radar rainfall estimation method (NPR) derived using the conditional probability distribution of reflectivity and gauge rainfall. The NPR method is applied to the densely gauged Sydney Terrey Hills radar network, where it reduces the RMSE in rainfall estimates by 10%, with improvements observed at 90% of the gauges. The second of the two approaches is a method to merge radar and spatially interpolated gauge measurements. The two sources of information are combined using a dynamic combinatorial algorithm with weights that vary in both space and time. The weight for any specific period is calculated based on the error covariance matrix that is formulated from the radar and spatially interpolated rainfall errors of similar reflectivity periods in a cross-validation setting. The combination method reduces the RMSE by about 20% compared to the traditional Z-R relationship method, and improves estimates compared to spatially interpolated point measurements in sparsely gauged areas.

  12. Weather radar rainfall data in urban hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Einfalt, Thomas; Willems, Patrick; Ellerbæk Nielsen, Jesper; ten Veldhuis, Marie-Claire; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Rasmussen, Michael R.; Molnar, Peter

    2017-03-01

    Application of weather radar data in urban hydrological applications has evolved significantly during the past decade as an alternative to traditional rainfall observations with rain gauges. Advances in radar hardware, data processing, numerical models, and emerging fields within urban hydrology necessitate an updated review of the state of the art in such radar rainfall data and applications. Three key areas with significant advances over the past decade have been identified: (1) temporal and spatial resolution of rainfall data required for different types of hydrological applications, (2) rainfall estimation, radar data adjustment and data quality, and (3) nowcasting of radar rainfall and real-time applications. Based on these three fields of research, the paper provides recommendations based on an updated overview of shortcomings, gains, and novel developments in relation to urban hydrological applications. The paper also reviews how the focus in urban hydrology research has shifted over the last decade to fields such as climate change impacts, resilience of urban areas to hydrological extremes, and online prediction/warning systems. It is discussed how radar rainfall data can add value to the aforementioned emerging fields in current and future applications, but also to the analysis of integrated water systems.

  13. 30 years of cosmic fullerenes

    CERN Document Server

    Berne, O; Mulas, G; Joblin, C

    2015-01-01

    In 1985, "During experiments aimed at understanding the mechanisms by which long-chain carbon molecules are formed in interstellar space and circumstellar shells", Harry Kroto and his collaborators serendipitously discovered a new form of carbon: fullerenes. The most emblematic fullerene (i.e. C$_{60}$ "buckminsterfullerene"), contains exactly 60 carbon atoms organized in a cage-like structure similar to a soccer ball. Since their discovery impacted the field of nanotechnologies, Kroto and colleagues received the Nobel prize in 1996. The cage-like structure, common to all fullerene molecules, gives them unique properties, in particular an extraordinary stability. For this reason and since they were discovered in experiments aimed to reproduce conditions in space, fullerenes were sought after by astronomers for over two decades, and it is only recently that they have been firmly identified by spectroscopy, in evolved stars and in the interstellar medium. This identification offers the opportunity to study the ...

  14. 30 Years of Robotic Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leal Ghezzi, Tiago; Campos Corleta, Oly

    2016-10-01

    The idea of reproducing himself with the use of a mechanical robot structure has been in man's imagination in the last 3000 years. However, the use of robots in medicine has only 30 years of history. The application of robots in surgery originates from the need of modern man to achieve two goals: the telepresence and the performance of repetitive and accurate tasks. The first "robot surgeon" used on a human patient was the PUMA 200 in 1985. In the 1990s, scientists developed the concept of "master-slave" robot, which consisted of a robot with remote manipulators controlled by a surgeon at a surgical workstation. Despite the lack of force and tactile feedback, technical advantages of robotic surgery, such as 3D vision, stable and magnified image, EndoWrist instruments, physiologic tremor filtering, and motion scaling, have been considered fundamental to overcome many of the limitations of the laparoscopic surgery. Since the approval of the da Vinci(®) robot by international agencies, American, European, and Asian surgeons have proved its factibility and safety for the performance of many different robot-assisted surgeries. Comparative studies of robotic and laparoscopic surgical procedures in general surgery have shown similar results with regard to perioperative, oncological, and functional outcomes. However, higher costs and lack of haptic feedback represent the major limitations of current robotic technology to become the standard technique of minimally invasive surgery worldwide. Therefore, the future of robotic surgery involves cost reduction, development of new platforms and technologies, creation and validation of curriculum and virtual simulators, and conduction of randomized clinical trials to determine the best applications of robotics.

  15. An integrated approach for identifying homogeneous regions of extreme rainfall events and estimating IDF curves in Southern Ontario, Canada: Incorporating radar observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paixao, Edson; Mirza, M. Monirul Qader; Shephard, Mark W.; Auld, Heather; Klaassen, Joan; Smith, Graham

    2015-09-01

    Reliable extreme rainfall information is required for many applications including infrastructure design, management of water resources, and planning for weather-related emergencies in urban and rural areas. In this study, in situ TBRG sub-daily rainfall rate observations have been supplemented with weather radar information to better capture the spatial and temporal variability of heavy rainfall events regionally. Comparison of extreme rainfall events show that the absolute differences between the rain gauge and radar generally increase with increasing rainfall. Better agreement between the two observations is found when comparing the collocated radar and TBRG annual maximum values. The median difference is <18% for the annual maximum rainfall values ⩽50 mm. The median of difference of IDF estimates obtained through the Gumbel distribution for 10-year return period values computed from TBRG and radar are also found to be 4%. The overall results of this analysis demonstrates the potential value of incorporating remotely sensed radar with traditional point source TBRG network observations to provide additional insight on extreme rainfall events regionally, especially in terms of identifying homogeneous regions of extreme rainfall. The radar observations are particularly useful in areas where there is insufficient TBRG station density to statistically capture the extreme rainfall events.

  16. Daily Report, Supplement, East Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-11-02

    Czech Part in CSFR’s Disintegration Considered 93CH0268A Prague PRITOMNOST in Czech No 9, 1992 pp 4-5 [Article by Milan Znoj: "The Ideology of Czech...having contributed to the Nantes Edict . But, before moderation and reason won, France had suf- fered through a 30-year civil war. [POLITYKA] What would...the Polish Nantes Edict look like? [Hall] As far as the Constitution is concerned, there is no problem, in my opinion. The concepts of the church’s

  17. Logistiline Daily Service / Paavo Kangur

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Kangur, Paavo, 1966-

    2005-01-01

    Sügisel ostis Leedu endise majandusministri Valetntinas Milaknise firma Daily Service ära kõik bürootarvetemüüja Reval Impexi aktsiad. 300 miljoni kroonise aastakäibega firma Eesti tütarettevõte prognoosib oma tänavuseks käibeks 31,2 miljonit krooni. Lisa: Daily Service'i struktuur

  18. MHC-I-restricted epitopes conserved among variola and other related orthopoxviruses are recognized by T cells 30 years after vaccination

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tang, Sheila Tuyet; Wang, M.; Lamberth, K.;

    2008-01-01

    It is many years since the general population has been vaccinated against smallpox virus. Here, we report that human leukocyte antigen (HLA) class I restricted T cell epitopes can be recognized more than 30 years after vaccination. Using bioinformatic methods, we predicted 177 potential cytotoxic...... to a better understanding of poxvirus immunity and may aid in the development of new improved vaccines and diagnostic tools.......It is many years since the general population has been vaccinated against smallpox virus. Here, we report that human leukocyte antigen (HLA) class I restricted T cell epitopes can be recognized more than 30 years after vaccination. Using bioinformatic methods, we predicted 177 potential cytotoxic T...... lymphocyte epitopes. Eight epitopes were confirmed to stimulate IFN-gamma release by T cells in smallpox-vaccinated subjects. The epitopes were restricted by five supertypes (HLA-A1, -A2, -A24 -A26 and -B44). Significant T cell responses were detected against 8 of 45 peptides with an HLA class I affinity...

  19. Spatial and temporal patterns of alkaloid variation in the poison frog Oophaga pumilio in Costa Rica and Panama over 30 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saporito, Ralph A; Donnelly, Maureen A; Jain, Poonam; Martin Garraffo, H; Spande, Thomas F; Daly, John W

    2007-11-01

    A total of 232 alkaloids, representing 21 structural classes were detected in skin extracts from the dendrobatid poison frog Oophaga pumilio, collected from 53 different populations from over 30 years of research. The highly toxic pumiliotoxins and allopumiliotoxins, along with 5,8-disubstitiuted and 5,6,8-trisubstituted indolizidines, all of which are proposed to be of dietary mite origin, were common constituents in most extracts. One decahydroquinoline (DHQ), previously shown be of ant origin, occurred in many extracts often as a major alkaloid, while other DHQs occurred rather infrequently. Histrionicotoxins, thought to be of ant origin, did not appear to possess a specific pattern of occurrence among the populations, but when present, were usually found as major components. Certain 3,5-disubstituted pyrrolizidines and indolizidines, known to be of ant origin, did occur in extracts, but infrequently. Alkaloid composition differed with regard to geographic location of frog populations, and for populations that were sampled two or more times during the 30-year period significant changes in alkaloid profiles sometimes occurred. The results of this study indicate that chemical defense in a dendrobatid poison frog is dependent on geographic location and habitat type, which presumably controls the abundance and nature of alkaloid-containing arthropods.

  20. Climate Characteristics of High-Temperature and Muggy Days in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region in the Recent 30 Years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guohua Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The climate characteristics of high-temperature (37°C and above and muggy days in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region over the past 30 years from 1981 to 2010 are analyzed. The results are summarized as follows. During this period, the years with the most number of high-temperature days are 1997–2005 and 2009 in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, while high-temperature extremes appear in 1999, 2000, 2002, 2009, and 2010. This disparity between the years with high-temperature extremes and the years with the most number of high-temperature days is located primarily in the central and southern cities of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. High-temperature extremes in the southern cities appear in June and July, while high-temperature extremes in the other cities appear in July. The years with the most number of muggy days are 1994, 1997, 1998, 2000, and 2010 in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, but the years with the extreme muggy conditions appear in 1981, 2002, 2005, and 2010. The most number of muggy days are in July, and the muggy days in July and August account for about 90% of the entire summer. Over the 30-year period, no apparent changes are observed in the number of days with precipitation and the annual precipitation amount.

  1. Characteristics of Land Use/Cover and Macroscopic Ecological Changes in the Headwaters of the Yangtze River and of the Yellow River over the Past 30 Years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lulu Liu

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Based on land use and land cover (LULC datasets in the late 1970s, the early 1990s, 2004 and 2012, we analyzed characteristics of LULC change in the headwaters of the Yangtze River and Yellow River over the past 30 years contrastively, using the transition matrix and LULC change index. The results showed that, in 2012, the LULC in the headwaters of the Yellow River were different compared to those of the headwaters of the Yangtze River, with more grassland and wet- and marshland. In the past 30 years, the grassland and wet- and marshland increasing at the expense of sand, gobi, and bare land and desert were the main LULC change types in the headwaters of the Yangtze River, with the macro-ecological situation experiencing a process of degeneration, slight melioration, and continuous melioration, in that order. In the headwaters of the Yellow River, severe reduction of grassland coverage, shrinkage of wet- and marshland and the consequential expansion of sand, gobi and bare land were noticed. The macro-ecological situation experienced a process of degeneration, obvious degeneration, and slight melioration, in that order, and the overall change in magnitude was more dramatic than that in the headwaters of the Yangtze River. These different LULC change courses were jointly driven by climate change, grassland-grazing pressure, and the implementation of ecological construction projects.

  2. Satellite-based estimation of rainfall erosivity for Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vrieling, A.; Sterk, G.; Jong, S.M. de

    2010-01-01

    Rainfall erosivity is a measure for the erosive force of rainfall. Rainfall kinetic energy determines the erosivity and is in turn greatly dependent on rainfall intensity. Attempts for its large-scale mapping are rare. Most are based on interpolation of erosivity values derived from rain gauge data.

  3. Long-term trends and variability of rainfall extremes in the Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villafuerte, Marcelino Q.; Matsumoto, Jun; Akasaka, Ikumi; Takahashi, Hiroshi G.; Kubota, Hisayuki; Cinco, Thelma A.

    2014-02-01

    Owing to the increasing concerns about climate change due to the recent extreme rainfall events in the Philippines, long-term trends and variability in rainfall extremes in the country are investigated using 60-year (1951-2010) daily rainfall data from 35 meteorological stations. Rainfall extremes are described using seven extreme precipitation indices (EPI) that characterize daily rainfall in terms of intensity, accumulation, and duration on a seasonal perspective. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test is employed in combination with the moving blocks bootstrapping technique to detect significant trends in EPI. The results suggest a tendency toward a drying condition for the dry season, January-March (JFM), as indicated by statistically significant decreasing trends in seasonal wet days total rainfall (PCPTOT) associated with increasing trends in maximum length of dry spell (LDS). In contrast, statistically significant increasing trends in maximum 5-day rainfall (RX5day) and decreasing trends in LDS denote a wetting condition during the July-September (JAS) season, particularly at stations located in the northwest and central Philippines. The trends obtained are further assessed by examining the longer time series of EPI at four meteorological stations (Aparri, Dagupan, Iloilo, and Masbate) that have rainfall data from 1911 to 2010. The longer historical data revealed that the trends obtained in the shorter period (1951-2010) could either be consistent with the continuous long-term trends, as observed in RX5day during JAS at Aparri and Masbate, or represent interdecadal variability as was observed at Dagupan and Iloilo. The long-term (1911-2010) southwestward extension of the western North Pacific subtropical high associated with a weakening of the 850-hPa westerly wind over the South China Sea partly provides a possible cause of the trends in EPI during JAS, whereas the weakening of the East Asian winter monsoon contributed somewhat to the trends obtained during

  4. Exploring the relationship between malaria, rainfall intermittency, and spatial variation in rainfall seasonality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merkord, C. L.; Wimberly, M. C.; Henebry, G. M.; Senay, G. B.

    2014-12-01

    Malaria is a major public health problem throughout tropical regions of the world. Successful prevention and treatment of malaria requires an understanding of the environmental factors that affect the life cycle of both the malaria pathogens, protozoan parasites, and its vectors, anopheline mosquitos. Because the egg, larval, and pupal stages of mosquito development occur in aquatic habitats, information about the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall is critical for modeling malaria risk. Potential sources of hydrological data include satellite-derived rainfall estimates (TRMM and GPM), evapotranspiration derived from a simplified surface energy balance, and estimates of soil moisture and fractional water cover from passive microwave imagery. Previous studies have found links between malaria cases and total monthly or weekly rainfall in areas where both are highly seasonal. However it is far from clear that monthly or weekly summaries are the best metrics to use to explain malaria outbreaks. It is possible that particular temporal or spatial patterns of rainfall result in better mosquito habitat and thus higher malaria risk. We used malaria case data from the Amhara region of Ethiopia and satellite-derived rainfall estimates to explore the relationship between malaria outbreaks and rainfall with the goal of identifying the most useful rainfall metrics for modeling malaria occurrence. First, we explored spatial variation in the seasonal patterns of both rainfall and malaria cases in Amhara. Second, we assessed the relative importance of different metrics of rainfall intermittency, including alternation of wet and dry spells, the strength of intensity fluctuations, and spatial variability in these measures, in determining the length and severity of malaria outbreaks. We also explored the sensitivity of our results to the choice of method for describing rainfall intermittency and the spatial and temporal scale at which metrics were calculated. Results

  5. Remote sensing of rainfall for debris-flow hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wieczorek, G.F.; Coe, J.A.; Godt, J.W.; ,

    2003-01-01

    Recent advances in remote sensing of rainfall provide more detailed temporal and spatial data on rainfall distribution. Four case studies of abundant debris flows over relatively small areas triggered during intense rainstorms are examined noting the potential for using remotely sensed rainfall data for landslide hazard analysis. Three examples with rainfall estimates from National Weather Service Doppler radar and one example with rainfall estimates from infrared imagery from a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration satellite are compared with ground-based measurements of rainfall and with landslide distribution. The advantages and limitations of using remote sensing of rainfall for landslide hazard analysis are discussed. ?? 2003 Millpress,.

  6. Extreme Rainfall Impacts in Fractured Permeable Catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ireson, A. M.; Butler, A. P.

    2009-12-01

    Serious groundwater flooding events have occurred on Chalk catchments in both the UK and north west Europe in the last decade, causing substantial amounts of disruption and economic damage. These fractured, permeable catchments are characterized by low surface runoff, high baseflow indices and strongly attenuated streamflow hydrographs. They have a general resilience to drought and pluvial/fluvial flooding. The small pore size of the Chalk matrix (~ 1 µm) exerts a high suction, such that dynamic storage is primarily due to the fractures, and amounts to ~ 1% of the total volume. As a result, under sustained rainfall the water table can rise up to exceptional levels leading to surface water emergence from springs and valleys. Floodwater may slowly drain with the topography, or, in localized depressions, it may simply pond until the groundwater levels decline. In winter 2000/1, a sequence of individually unexceptional rainfall events over several months led to large scale flooding in the Pang catchment, Berkshire, UK. By contrast, an extreme rainfall event on 20th July 2007 in the same catchment caused a very rapid response at the water table, but due to the antecedent conditions did not lead to flooding. The objective of this study is to quantify how the water table in a fractured permeable catchment responds to different types of rainfall, and the implications of this for groundwater flooding. We make use of measurements from the Pang catchment, including: rainfall (tipping bucket gauges); actual evaporation (eddy flux correlation); soil water content (profile probes and neutron probes); near surface matric potential (tensiometers and equitensiometers); deep (>10m) matric potential (deep jacking tensiometers); and water table elevation (piezometers). Conventional treatment of recharge in Chalk aquifers considers a fixed bypass component of rainfall, normally 15%, to account for the role of the fractures. However, interpretation of the field data suggest three modes

  7. Spatial interpolation methods for monthly rainfalls and temperatures in Basilicata

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ferrara A

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Spatial interpolated climatic data on grids are important as input in forest modeling because climate spatial variability has a direct effect on productivity and forest growth. Maps of climatic variables can be obtained by different interpolation methods depending on data quality (number of station, spatial distribution, missed data etc. and topographic and climatic features of study area. In this paper four methods are compared to interpolate monthly rainfall at regional scale: 1 inverse distance weighting (IDW; 2 regularized spline with tension (RST; 3 ordinary kriging (OK; 4 universal kriging (UK. Besides, an approach to generate monthly surfaces of temperatures over regions of complex terrain and with limited number of stations is presented. Daily data were gathered from 1976 to 2006 period and then gaps in the time series were filled in order to obtain monthly mean temperatures and cumulative precipitation. Basic statistics of monthly dataset and analysis of relationship of temperature and precipitation to elevation were performed. A linear relationship was found between temperature and altitude, while no relationship was found between rainfall and elevation. Precipitations were then interpolated without taking into account elevation. Based on root mean squared error for each month the best method was ranked. Results showed that universal kriging (UK is the best method in spatial interpolation of rainfall in study area. Then cross validation was used to compare prediction performance of tree different variogram model (circular, spherical, exponential using UK algorithm in order to produce final maps of monthly precipitations. Before interpolating temperatures were referred to see level using the calculated lapse rate and a digital elevation model (DEM. The result of interpolation with RST was then set to originally elevation with an inverse procedure. To evaluate the quality of interpolated surfaces a comparison between interpolated and

  8. Analyses of the temporal and spatial structures of heavy rainfall from a catalog of high-resolution radar rainfall fields

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Smith, James A.; Baeck, Mary Lynn

    2014-01-01

    that relate to size, structure and evolution of heavy rainfall. Extreme rainfall is also linked with severe weather (tornados, large hail and damaging wind). The diurnal cycle of rainfall for heavy rain days is characterized by an early peak in the largest rainfall rates, an afternoon-evening peak in rain...

  9. Modeling the Distribution of Rainfall Intensity using Hourly Data

    OpenAIRE

    Salisu Dan'azumi; Supiah Shamsudin; Azmi Aris

    2010-01-01

    Problem statement: Design of storm water best management practices to control runoff and water pollution can be achieved if a prior knowledge of the distribution of rainfall characteristics is known. Rainfall intensity, particularly in tropical climate, plays a major role in the design of runoff conveyance and erosion control systems. This study is aimed to explore the statistical distribution of rainfall intensity for Peninsular Malaysia using hourly rainfall data. Approach: Hourly rainfall ...

  10. Predicting hydrological signatures in ungauged catchments using spatial interpolation, index model, and rainfall-runoff modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yongqiang; Vaze, Jai; Chiew, Francis H. S.; Teng, Jin; Li, Ming

    2014-09-01

    Understanding a catchment's behaviours in terms of its underlying hydrological signatures is a fundamental task in surface water hydrology. It can help in water resource management, catchment classification, and prediction of runoff time series. This study investigated three approaches for predicting six hydrological signatures in southeastern Australia. These approaches were (1) spatial interpolation with three weighting schemes, (2) index model that estimates hydrological signatures using catchment characteristics, and (3) classical rainfall-runoff modelling. The six hydrological signatures fell into two categories: (1) long-term aggregated signatures - annual runoff coefficient, mean of log-transformed daily runoff, and zero flow ratio, and (2) signatures obtained from daily flow metrics - concavity index, seasonality ratio of runoff, and standard deviation of log-transformed daily flow. A total of 228 unregulated catchments were selected, with half the catchments randomly selected as gauged (or donors) for model building and the rest considered as ungauged (or receivers) to evaluate performance of the three approaches. The results showed that for two long-term aggregated signatures - the log-transformed daily runoff and runoff coefficient, the index model and rainfall-runoff modelling performed similarly, and were better than the spatial interpolation methods. For the zero flow ratio, the index model was best and the rainfall-runoff modelling performed worst. The other three signatures, derived from daily flow metrics and considered to be salient flow characteristics, were best predicted by the spatial interpolation methods of inverse distance weighting (IDW) and kriging. Comparison of flow duration curves predicted by the three approaches showed that the IDW method was best. The results found here provide guidelines for choosing the most appropriate approach for predicting hydrological behaviours at large scales.

  11. Daily and Sub-daily Precipitation for the Former USSR

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset is a compilation of in situ daily and hourly meteorological observations for the former USSR initially obtained within the framework of several joint...

  12. Neural network based daily precipitation generator (NNGEN-P)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boulanger, Jean-Philippe [LODYC, UMR CNRS/IRD/UPMC, Paris (France); University of Buenos Aires, Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmosfera y los Oceanos, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Martinez, Fernando; Segura, Enrique C. [University of Buenos Aires, Departamento de Computacion, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Penalba, Olga [University of Buenos Aires, Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmosfera y los Oceanos, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2007-02-15

    Daily weather generators are used in many applications and risk analyses. The present paper explores the potential of neural network architectures to design daily weather generator models. Focusing this first paper on precipitation, we design a collection of neural networks (multi-layer perceptrons in the present case), which are trained so as to approximate the empirical cumulative distribution (CDF) function for the occurrence of wet and dry spells and for the precipitation amounts. This approach contributes to correct some of the biases of the usual two-step weather generator models. As compared to a rainfall occurrence Markov model, NNGEN-P represents fairly well the mean and standard deviation of the number of wet days per month, and it significantly improves the simulation of the longest dry and wet periods. Then, we compared NNGEN-P to three parametric distribution functions usually applied to fit rainfall cumulative distribution functions (Gamma, Weibull and double-exponential). A data set of 19 Argentine stations was used. Also, data corresponding to stations in the United States, in Europe and in the Tropics were included to confirm the results. One of the advantages of NNGEN-P is that it is non-parametric. Unlike other parametric function, which adapt to certain types of climate regimes, NNGEN-P is fully adaptive to the observed cumulative distribution functions, which, on some occasions, may present complex shapes. On-going works will soon produce an extended version of NNGEN to temperature and radiation. (orig.)

  13. Spatial estimation of debris flows-triggering rainfall and its dependence on rainfall return period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Destro, Elisa; Marra, Francesco; Nikolopoulos, Efthymios I.; Zoccatelli, Davide; Creutin, Jean Dominique; Borga, Marco

    2017-02-01

    Forecasting the occurrence of debris flows is fundamental for issuing hazard warnings, and often focuses on rainfall as a triggering agent and on the use of empirical rainfall thresholds based on rain gauge observations. A recognized component of the uncertainty associated with the use of rainfall thresholds is related to the sampling of strongly varying rainfall variability with sparse rain gauge networks. In this work we examine the spatial distribution of rainfall depth in areas up to 10 km from the debris flow initiation points as a function of return period, and we exploit this information to analyze the errors expected in the estimation of debris flow triggering rainfall when rain gauge data are used. In particular, we investigate the impact of rain gauge density and of the use of different interpolation methods. High-resolution, adjusted radar rainfall estimates, representing the best available spatially-distributed rainfall estimates at the debris flows initiation point and in the surrounding area, are sampled by stochastically generated rain gauge networks characterized by varying densities. Debris flow triggering rainfall is estimated by means of three rainfall interpolation methods: nearest neighbor, inverse distance weighting and ordinary kriging. On average, triggering rainfall shows a local peak corresponding to the debris flow initiation point, with a decay of rainfall with distance which increases with the return period of the triggering rainfall. Interpolation of the stochastically generated rain gauge measurements leads to an underestimation of the triggering rainfall that, irrespective of the interpolation methods, increases with the return period and decreases with the rain gauge density. For small return period events and high rain gauge density, the differences among the methods are minor. With increasing the return period and decreasing the rain gauge density, the nearest neighbor method is less biased, because it makes use only of the

  14. Spatial interpolation of hourly rainfall – effect of additional information, variogram inference and storm properties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Verworn

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Hydrological modelling of floods relies on precipitation data with a high resolution in space and time. A reliable spatial representation of short time step rainfall is often difficult to achieve due to a low network density. In this study hourly precipitation was spatially interpolated with the multivariate geostatistical method kriging with external drift (KED using additional information from topography, rainfall data from the denser daily networks and weather radar data. Investigations were carried out for several flood events in the time period between 2000 and 2005 caused by different meteorological conditions. The 125 km radius around the radar station Ummendorf in northern Germany covered the overall study region. One objective was to assess the effect of different approaches for estimation of semivariograms on the interpolation performance of short time step rainfall. Another objective was the refined application of the method kriging with external drift. Special attention was not only given to find the most relevant additional information, but also to combine the additional information in the best possible way. A multi-step interpolation procedure was applied to better consider sub-regions without rainfall.

    The impact of different semivariogram types on the interpolation performance was low. While it varied over the events, an averaged semivariogram was sufficient overall. Weather radar data were the most valuable additional information for KED for convective summer events. For interpolation of stratiform winter events using daily rainfall as additional information was sufficient. The application of the multi-step procedure significantly helped to improve the representation of fractional precipitation coverage.

  15. Spatial interpolation of hourly rainfall – effect of additional information, variogram inference and storm properties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Verworn

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Hydrological modelling of floods relies on precipitation data with a high resolution in space and time. A reliable spatial representation of short time step rainfall is often difficult to achieve due to a low network density. In this study hourly precipitation was spatially interpolated with the multivariate geostatistical method kriging with external drift (KED using additional information from topography, rainfall data from the denser daily networks and weather radar data. Investigations were carried out for several flood events in the time period between 2000 and 2005 caused by different meteorological conditions. The 125 km radius around the radar station Ummendorf in northern Germany covered the overall study region. One objective was to assess the effect of different approaches for estimation of semivariograms on the interpolation performance of short time step rainfall. Another objective was the refined application of the method kriging with external drift. Special attention was not only given to find the most relevant additional information, but also to combine the additional information in the best possible way. A multi-step interpolation procedure was applied to better consider sub-regions without rainfall.

    The impact of different semivariogram types on the interpolation performance was low. While it varied over the events, an averaged semivariogram was sufficient overall. Weather radar data were the most valuable additional information for KED for convective summer events. For interpolation of stratiform winter events using daily rainfall as additional information was sufficient. The application of the multi-step procedure significantly helped to improve the representation of fractional precipitation coverage.

  16. Dry and wet spell variability during monsoon in gauge-based gridded daily precipitation datasets over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaudhary, Shushobhit; Dhanya, C. T.; Vinnarasi, R.

    2017-03-01

    Accurate estimates of monsoonal rainfall at daily time scales are essential inputs for various water-related sectors such as drought and flood forecasting, crop and water management for agriculture. To serve this purpose, a variety of rainfall products, especially the gauge based products which serve as the ground-truth for other derived rainfall products, are available over India. In this study, three different daily gauge based gridded rainfall datasets, namely Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of water resources (APHRODITE) and Climate Prediction Center (CPC) unified rain gauge data are compared over India for the monsoon season of 1979-2007. The comparison among the datasets is based on the duration, frequency and intensity of three different spell characteristics, namely dry, wet and extreme wet spells, and their associated trends. Wet (dry) spells are defined as the consecutive period of wet (dry) days, where a wet (dry) day is defined using rainfall threshold of 1 mm. Extreme wet spells are defined using the 90th percentile of rainfall above the depth of wet day. All datasets capture the spatial distribution of precipitation characteristics, albeit with pronounced differences at heavy rainfall regions. CPC and IMD show a close match in spell characteristics while APHRODITE significantly deviates. APHRODITE shows increased intensity of rainfall during dry periods, leading to over-estimation of wet days and under-estimation of dry days. Northern extreme of India (Jammu and Kashmir) show major differences in replicating the spell characteristics. Trend patterns are also not consistent between the three datasets. The present study will provide information on the spatio-temporal pattern of dry, wet and extreme wet spell characteristics over India and aid in selecting appropriate datasets for studying the Indian monsoon rainfall depending on their scope and application of

  17. Increasing runoff and sediment load from the Greenland ice sheet at kangerlussuaq (Sonder Stromfjord) in a 30-year perspective, 1979-2008

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mernild, Sebastian Haugard [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Liston, Glen [COLORADO STATE UNIV.; Hasholt, Bent [UNIV OF COPENGAGEN; Steffen, Konrad [UNIV OF COLORADO; Van Den Broeke, Michiel [UTRECHT UNIV; Mcgrath, Daniel [UNIV OF COLORADO; Yde, Jacob [UNIV OF AARHUS

    2009-01-01

    This observation and modeling study provides insights into runoff and sediment load exiting the Watson River drainage basin, Kangerlussuaq, West Greenland during a 30 year period (1978/79-2007/08) when the climate experienced increasing temperatures and precipitation. The 30-year simulations quantify the terrestrial freshwater and sediment output from part of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) and the land between the GrIS and the ocean, in the context of global warming and increasing GrIS surface melt. We used a snow-evolution modeling system (SnowModel) to simulate the winter accumulation and summer ablation processes, including runoff and surface mass balance (SMB), of the Greenland ice sheet. Observed sediment concentrations were related to observed runoff, producing a sediment-load time series. To a large extent, the SMB fluctuations could be explained by changes in net precipitation (precipitation minus evaporation and sublimation), with 8 out of 30 years having negative SMB, mainly because of relatively low annual net precipitation. The overall trend in net precipitation and runoff increased significantly, while 5MB increased insignificantly throughout the simulation period, leading to enhanced precipitation of 0.59 km{sup 3} w.eq. (or 60%), runoff of 0.43 km{sup 3} w.eq (or 54%), and SMB of 0.16 km3 w.eq. (or 86%). Runoff rose on average from 0.80 km{sup 3} w.eq. in 1978/79 to 1.23 km{sup 3} w.eq. in 2007/08. The percentage of catchment oudet runoff explained by runoff from the GrIS decreased on average {approx} 10%, indicating that catchment runoff throughout the simulation period was influenced more by precipitation and snowmelt events, and less by runoff from the GrIS. Average variations in the increasing Kangerlussuaq runoff from 1978/79 through 2007/08 seem to follow the overall variations in satellite-derived GrIS surface melt, where 64% of the variations in simulated runoff were explained by regional melt conditions on the GrIS. Throughout the simulation

  18. Evolutionary polynomial regression applied to rainfall triggered landslide reactivation alert

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simeone, Vincenzo; Doglioni, Angelo; Fiorillo, Francesco

    2010-05-01

    Evolutionary Polynomial Regression (EPR) is a hybrid evolutionary modelling paradigm, which allows for the construction of explicit model equations, starting from measured data. It was successfully applied to multiple cases study as well as to different model aims, i.e. dynamic natural systems, pipe burst analysis, geotechnical soil characterization, etc. A landslide located on a slope on the Adriatic coast of south Italy, close to the small town of Petacciato, is here investigated. In particular, starting from the rainfall data, which are available for the last 110 years as daily records, and from 11 activation episodes which range between 1932 and 2009, a data-driven model aimed at describing the reactivation as function of cumulative rainfall values was identified. Petacciato landslide is a deep large landslide; it lays on a slope characterized by outcropping Pleistocenic blue clays, which are somewhere spaced out of thin loamy-sandy layers. Moving towards the upper part of the slope, which is closer to the town, blue clays are progressively replaced by sand and conglomerates. The slope is also characterized by frequent terraces which show slope inversions. The landslide is quite wide and the slope is characterized by a low steepness. In addition, the bottom of the sea, close to the shore, is very gently deepening, thus excluding an effect of water on the slope stability. For these reasons, the dynamic of Petacciato landslide is quite difficult to be interpreted. The particular mechanism of the landslide as well as the exceptional data availability, in particular in terms of reactivations, make it possible to cope with this system according to a data mining approach. It was observed that the landslide reactivated after long rainy periods, and then rainfall was assumed as a triggering factor. Therefore, cumulative rainfall values were constructed in order to account with long periods, up to 500 days. These were used as candidate inputs for the construction of a

  19. Impacts of Urbanization on Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shastri, H. K.; Ghosh, S.; Karmakar, S.

    2013-12-01

    Rapid urbanisation all around the world is a matter of concern to the scientific community. The fast growing urban areas carries out huge anthropogenic activities that burdens natural environment and its resources like air-water quality and space, thus have different climatology to their rural surroundings. World Urbanization Prospects 2005 annual report described 20th century as witnessing a rapid urbanization of the world's population. Though urbanization is a worldwide phenomenon, it is especially prevalent in India, where urban areas have experienced an unprecedented rate of growth with level of urbanization increased from 17.23 % to 31.16% in year 1951 to 2011and the number of cities with population more than one million has grown from 5 to 53 over the same time. We take up an observational study to understand influence of urbanisation on mesoscale circulations and resulting convection, thus nature of precipitation around urban areas. The spatially distributed analysis of gridded daily precipitation data over the country is carried out to identify nature of trends in selected statistics of Indian summer monsoon precipitation and examine its association with urban land cover to have an impact on precipitation statistics. We evaluate explicit changes around urban land use in context of 40 large Indian urban areas. Further we assess local-urban climatic signals in the point level rainfall observations with model based analysis of two nearby locations under similar climatic conditions but differing largely in terms of urbanisation. The results of gridded data analysis indicate an overall tendency towards decrease in mean precipitation however, rainfall activities are enhanced around urban areas across different climate zones of the country. Though trends observed in selected climatic parameters revealed great degree of spatial inter variability in selected precipitation statistics over the country, they accounts a greater degree of inclination for occurrence under

  20. Rainfall variability and seasonality in northern Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bari, Sheikh Hefzul; Hussain, Md. Manjurul; Husna, Noor-E.-Ashmaul

    2016-05-01

    This paper aimed at the analysis of rainfall seasonality and variability for the northern part of South-Asian country, Bangladesh. The coefficient of variability was used to determine the variability of rainfall. While rainfall seasonality index (SI ) and mean individual seasonality index ( overline{SI_i} ) were used to identify seasonal contrast. We also applied Mann-Kendall trend test and sequential Mann-Kendall test to determine the trend in seasonality. The lowest variability was found for monsoon among the four seasons whereas winter has the highest variability. Observed variability has a decreasing tendency from the northwest region towards the northeast region. The mean individual seasonality index (0.815378 to 0.977228) indicates that rainfall in Bangladesh is "markedly seasonal with a long dry season." It was found that the length of the dry period is lower at the northeastern part of northern Bangladesh. Trend analysis results show no